Regularized joint inverse estimation of extreme rainfall amounts in ungauged coastal basins of El Salvador

USGS Publications Warehouse

Friedel, M.J.

2008-01-01

A regularized joint inverse procedure is presented and used to estimate the magnitude of extreme rainfall events in ungauged coastal river basins of El Salvador: Paz, Jiboa, Grande de San Miguel, and Goascoran. Since streamflow measurements reflect temporal and spatial rainfall information, peak-flow discharge is hypothesized to represent a similarity measure suitable for regionalization. To test this hypothesis, peak-flow discharge values determined from streamflow recurrence information (10-year, 25-year, and 100-year) collected outside the study basins are used to develop regional (country-wide) regression equations. Peak-flow discharge derived from these equations together with preferred spatial parameter relations as soft prior information are used to constrain the simultaneous calibration of 20 tributary basin models. The nonlinear range of uncertainty in estimated parameter values (1 curve number and 3 recurrent rainfall amounts for each model) is determined using an inverse calibration-constrained Monte Carlo approach. Cumulative probability distributions for rainfall amounts indicate differences among basins for a given return period and an increase in magnitude and range among basins with increasing return interval. Comparison of the estimated median rainfall amounts for all return periods were reasonable but larger (3.2-26%) than rainfall estimates computed using the frequency-duration (traditional) approach and individual rain gauge data. The observed 25-year recurrence rainfall amount at La Hachadura in the Paz River basin during Hurricane Mitch (1998) is similar in value to, but outside and slightly less than, the estimated rainfall confidence limits. The similarity in joint inverse and traditionally computed rainfall events, however, suggests that the rainfall observation may likely be due to under-catch and not model bias. ?? Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2007.

STS-38 MS Springer climbs through CCT side hatch prior to egress training

NASA Image and Video Library

1990-03-05

STS-38 Mission Specialist (MS) Robert C. Springer, wearing launch and entry suit (LES), climbs through the side hatch of the crew compartment trainer (CCT) located in JSC's Mockup and Integration Laboratory (MAIL) Bldg 9A. Springer will practice emergency egress through the side hatch using the crew escape system (CES) pole (at Springer's left). The inflated safety cushion under Springer will break his fall as he rolls out of the side hatch.

STS-38 MS Springer climbs through CCT side hatch prior to egress training

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1990-01-01

STS-38 Mission Specialist (MS) Robert C. Springer, wearing launch and entry suit (LES), climbs through the side hatch of the crew compartment trainer (CCT) located in JSC's Mockup and Integration Laboratory (MAIL) Bldg 9A. Springer will practice emergency egress through the side hatch using the crew escape system (CES) pole (at Springer's left). The inflated safety cushion under Springer will break his fall as he rolls out of the side hatch.

Ancient photosynthetic eukaryote biofilms in an Atacama Desert coastal cave

USGS Publications Warehouse

Azua-Bustos, A.; Gonzalez-Silva, C.; Mancilla, R.A.; Salas, L.; Palma, R.E.; Wynne, J.J.; McKay, C.P.; Vicuna, R.

2009-01-01

Caves offer a stable and protected environment from harsh and changing outside prevailing conditions. Hence, they represent an interesting habitat for studying life in extreme environments. Here, we report the presence of a member of the ancient eukaryote red algae Cyanidium group in a coastal cave of the hyperarid Atacama Desert. This microorganism was found to form a seemingly monospecific biofilm growing under extremely low photon flux levels. Our work suggests that this species, Cyanidium sp. Atacama, is a new member of a recently proposed novel monophyletic lineage of mesophilic "cave" Cyanidium sp., distinct from the remaining three other lineages which are all thermo-acidophilic. The cave described in this work may represent an evolutionary island for life in the midst of the Atacama Desert. ?? Springer Science + Business Media, LLC 2009.

Official portrait of astronaut Robert C. Springer

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1988-01-01

Official portrait of astronaut Robert C. Springer, United Stated Marine Corps (USMC) Colonel, member of Astronaut Class 9 (1980), and mission specialist. Springer wears launch and entry suit (LES) while holding helmet.

Multifractal resilience and viability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tchiguirinskaia, I.; Schertzer, D. J. M.

2017-12-01

The term resilience has become extremely fashionable and there had been many attempts to provide operational definition and in fact metrics going beyond a set of more or less ad-hoc indicators. The viability theory (Aubin and Saint-Pierre, 2011) have been used to give a rather precise mathematical definition of resilience (Deffuant and Gilbert, 2011). However, it does not grasp the multiscale nature of resilience that is rather fundamental as particularly stressed by Folke et al (2010). In this communication, we first recall a preliminary attempt (Tchiguirinskaia et al., 2014) to define multifractal resilience with the help of the maximal probable singularity. Then we extend this multifractal approach to the capture basin of the viability, therefore the resilient basin. Aubin, J P, A. Bayen, and P Saint-Pierre (2011). Viability Theory. New Directions. Springer, Berlin,. Deffuant, G. and Gilbert, N. (eds) (2011) Viability and Resilience of Complex Systems. Springer Berlin.Folke, C., S R Carpenter, B Walker, M Sheffer, T Chapin, and J Rockstroem (2010). Resilience thinking: integrating re- silience, adaptability and transformability. Ecology and So- ciety, 14(4):20, Tchiguirinskaia,I., D. Schertzer, , A. Giangola-Murzyn and T. C. Hoang (2014). Multiscale resilience metrics to assess flood. Proceedings of ICCSA 2014, Normandie University, Le Havre, France -.

Rapid onset aggressive vertebral haemangioma.

PubMed

Cheung, Nicholas K; Doorenbosch, Xenia; Christie, John G

2011-03-01

Vertebral haemangiomas are generally benign asymptomatic vascular tumours seen commonly in the adult population. Presentations in paediatric populations are extremely rare, which can result in rapid onset of neurological symptoms. We present a highly unusual case of an aggressive paediatric vertebral haemangioma causing significant cord compression. A 13-year-old boy presented with only 2 weeks duration of progressive gait disturbance, truncal ataxia and loss of bladder control. Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) of the spine revealed a large vascular epidural mass extending between T6 and T8 vertebral bodies. Associated displacement and compression of the spinal cord was present. A highly vascular bony lesion was found during surgery. Histopathology identified this tumour to be a vertebral haemangioma. We present an extremely unusual acute presentation of a paediatric vertebral haemangioma. This study highlights the need for early diagnosis, MRI for investigation and urgent surgical management. © Springer-Verlag 2011

Key topics in surgical research and methodology Thanos Athanasiou Key topics in surgical research and methodology , Haile Debas and Ara Darzi Springer Pages: 1090 £180 9783540719144 3540719148 [Formula: see text].

PubMed

2011-01-21

If the editors' intention was to produce a comprehensive text book that will be of value to healthcare professionals interested in surgical research and improvements in health care, they have succeeded.

Hematocrit and plasma osmolality values of young-of-year shortnose sturgeon following acute exposures to combinations of salinity and temperature

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ziegeweid, J.R.; Black, M.C.

2010-01-01

Little is known about the physiological capabilities of young-of-year (YOY) shortnose sturgeon. In this study, plasma osmolality and hematocrit values were measured for YOY shortnose sturgeon following 48-h exposures to 12 different combinations of salinity and temperature. Hematocrit levels varied significantly with temperature and age, and plasma osmolalities varied significantly with salinity and age. Plasma osmolality and hematocrit values were similar to previously published values for other sturgeons of similar age and size in similar treatment conditions. ?? 2010 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

EVMDD-Based Analysis and Diagnosis Methods of Multi-State Systems with Multi-State Components

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-01-01

Springer-Verlag New York Inc., 2001. [7] T. Kam, T. Villa, R. K. Brayton , and A. L. Sangiovanni-Vincentelli, “Multi-valued deci- sion diagrams: Theory and...Decision Diagram Techniques for Micro- and Nanoelectronic Design, CRC Press, Taylor & Francis Group, 2006. [22] X. Zang, D. Wang, H. Sun, and K. S. Trivedi

Adapting an Agent-Based Model of Socio-Technical Systems to Analyze Security Failures

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-10-17

total number of non-blackouts differed from the total number in the baseline data to a statistically significant extent with a p- valueɘ.0003...the total number of non-blackouts differed from the total number in the baseline data to a statistically significant extent with a p-valueɘ.0003...I. Nikolic, and Z. Lukszo, Eds., Agent-based modelling of socio-technical systems. Springer Science & Business Media, 2013, vol. 9. [12] A. P. Shaw

Filament winding cylinders. II - Validation of the process model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Calius, Emilio P.; Lee, Soo-Yong; Springer, George S.

1990-01-01

Analytical and experimental studies were performed to validate the model developed by Lee and Springer for simulating the manufacturing process of filament wound composite cylinders. First, results calculated by the Lee-Springer model were compared to results of the Calius-Springer thin cylinder model. Second, temperatures and strains calculated by the Lee-Springer model were compared to data. The data used in these comparisons were generated during the course of this investigation with cylinders made of Hercules IM-6G/HBRF-55 and Fiberite T-300/976 graphite-epoxy tows. Good agreement was found between the calculated and measured stresses and strains, indicating that the model is a useful representation of the winding and curing processes.

Contrasting fluid/rock interaction between the Notch Peak granitic intrusion and argillites and limestones in western Utah: evidence from stable isotopes and phase assemblages

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nabelek, P.I.; Labotka, T.C.; O'Neil, J.R.; Papike, J.J.

1984-01-01

The Jurassic Notch Peak granitic stock, western Utah, discordantly intrudes Cambrian interbedded pure limestones and calcareous argillites. Contact metamorphosed argillite and limestone samples, collected along traverses away from the intrusion, were analyzed for ??18O, ??13C, and ??D. The ??13C and ??18O values for the limestones remain constant at about 0.5 (PDB) and 20 (SMOW), respectively, with increasing metamorphic grade. The whole rock ??18O values of the argillites systematically decrease from 19 to as low as 8.1, and the ??13C values of the carbonate fraction from 0.5 to -11.8. The change in ??13C values can be explained by Rayleigh decarbonation during calcsilicate reactions, where calculated {Mathematical expression} is about 4.5 permil for the high-grade samples and less for medium and low-grade samples suggesting a range in temperatures at which most decarbonation occurred. However, the amount of CO2 released was not anough to decrease the whole rock ??18O to the values observed in the argillites. The low ??18O values close to the intrusion suggest interaction with magmatic water that had a ??18O value of 8.5. The extreme lowering of ??13C by fractional devolatilization and the lowering of ??18O in argillites close to the intrusion indicates oxgen-equivalent fluid/rock ratios in excess of 1.0 and X(CO2)F of the fluid less than 0.2. Mineral assemblages in conjunction with the isotopic data indicate a strong influence of water infiltration on the reaction relations in the argillites and separate fluid and thermal fronts moving thru the argillites. The different stable isotope relations in limestones and argillites attest to the importance of decarbonation in the enhancement of permeability. The flow of fluids was confined to the argillite beds (argillite aquifers) whereas the limestones prevented vertical fluid flow and convective cooling of the stock. ?? 1984 Springer-Verlag.

Two mantle sources, two plumbing systems: Tholeiitic and alkaline magmatism of the Maymecha River basin, Siberian flood volcanic province

USGS Publications Warehouse

Arndt, N.; Chauvel, C.; Czamanske, G.; Fedorenko, V.

1998-01-01

Rocks of two distinctly different magma series are found in a ???4000-m-thick sequence of lavas and tuffs in the Maymecha River basin which is part of the Siberian flood-volcanic province. The tholeiites are typical low-Ti continental flood basalts with remarkably restricted, petrologically evolved compositions. They have basaltic MgO contents, moderate concentrations of incompatible trace elements, moderate fractionation of incompatible from compatible elements, distinct negative Ta(Nb) anomalies, and ??Nd values of 0 to + 2. The primary magmas were derived from a relatively shallow mantle source, and evolved in large crustal magma chambers where they acquired their relatively uniform compositions and became contaminated with continental crust. An alkaline series, in contrast, contains a wide range of rock types, from meymechite and picrite to trachytes, with a wide range of compositions (MgO from 0.7 to 38 wt%, SiO2 from 40 to 69 wt%, Ce from 14 to 320 ppm), high concentrations of incompatible elements and extreme fractionation of incompatible from compatible elements (Al2O3/TiO2 ??? 1; Sm/Yb up to 11). These rocks lack Ta(Nb) anomalies and have a broad range of ??Nd values, from -2 to +5. The parental magmas are believed to have formed by low-degree melting at extreme mantle depths (>200 km). They bypassed the large crustal magma chambers and ascended rapidly to the surface, a consequence, perhaps, of high volatile contents in the primary magmas. The tholeiitic series dominates the lower part of the sequence and the alkaline series the upper part; at the interface, the two types are interlayered. The succession thus provides evidence of a radical change in the site of mantle melting, and the simultaneous operation of two very different crustal plumbing systems, during the evolution of this flood-volcanic province. ?? Springer-Verlag 1998.

Adaptive Decision Making Using Probabilistic Programming and Stochastic Optimization

DTIC Science & Technology

2018-01-01

world optimization problems (and hence 16 Approved for Public Release (PA); Distribution Unlimited Pred. demand (uncertain; discrete ...simplify the setting, we further assume that the demands are discrete , taking on values d1, . . . , dk with probabilities (conditional on x) (pθ)i ≡ p...Tyrrell Rockafellar. Implicit functions and solution mappings. Springer Monogr. Math ., 2009. Anthony V Fiacco and Yo Ishizuka. Sensitivity and stability

Persisting effects of armored military maneuvers on some soils of the Mojave Desert

USGS Publications Warehouse

Prose, D.V.

1985-01-01

Soil compaction and substrate modification produced during large-scale armored military maneuvers in the early 1940s were examined in 1981 at seven sites in California's eastern Mojave Desert Recording penetrometer measurements show that tracks left by a single pass of an M3 "medium" tank have average soil resistance values that are 50% greater than those of the surrounding untracked soil in the upper 20 cm At one site, measurements made along short segments of track that have been visually eliminated by erosion and deposition processes show a 73% increase in penetrometer resistance over adjacent, undisturbed soils Dirt roadways at three former base camp locations could not be penetrated below 5-10 cm because of extreme compaction Soil bulk density was not as sensitive an indicator of soil compaction as was penetrometer resistance Density values in the upper 10 cm of soil are not significantly different between tank tracks and undisturbed soils at most sites, and roadways at two base camps show an average increase in bulk density of only 12% over adjacent soils. Trench excavations across tank tracks show that physical modifications of the substrate can extend vertically beneath a track to a depth of 25 cm and outward from a track's edge to 50 cm These soil disturbances are probably major factors that encourage accelerated soil erosion throughout the manuever area and also retard or prevent the return of vegetation to pre-disturbance conditions ?? 1985 Springer-Verlag New York Inc.

Authenticating Secure Tokens Using Slow Memory Access

DTIC Science & Technology

1999-01-01

Cryptology— CRYPTO ’97 Proceedings, Springer- Verlag, 1997, pp. 513–525. [CP93] D . Chaum and T. Pederson, “Wallet Databases with Observers,” Advances in...96 Proceedings, Springer-Verlag, 1996, pp. 1–15. [BDL97] D . Boneh, R.A. Demillo, R.J. Lip- ton, “On the Importance of Check- ing Cryptographic...Protocols for Faults,” Advances in Cryptology—EUROCRYPT ’97 Proceedings, Springer-Verlag, 1997, pp. 37–51. [BGW98] M. Briceno, I. Goldberg, D . Wagner

Wildlife as valuable natural resources vs. intolerable pests: A suburban wildlife management model

USGS Publications Warehouse

DeStefano, S.; Deblinger, R.D.

2005-01-01

Management of wildlife in suburban environments involves a complex set of interactions between both human and wildlife populations. Managers need additional tools, such as models, that can help them assess the status of wildlife populations, devise and apply management programs, and convey this information to other professionals and the public. We present a model that conceptualizes how some wildlife populations can fluctuate between extremely low (rare, threatened, or endangered status) and extremely high (overabundant) numbers over time. Changes in wildlife abundance can induce changes in human perceptions, which continually redefine species as a valuable resource to be protected versus a pest to be controlled. Management programs thatincorporate a number of approaches and promote more stable populations of wildlife avoid the problems of the resource versus pest transformation, are less costly to society, and encourage more positive and less negative interactions between humans and wildlife. We presenta case example of the beaver Castor canadensis in Massachusetts to illustrate how this model functions and can be applied. ?? 2005 Springer Science + Business Media, Inc.

Restoring the Savanna to the Savannah River Site.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Harrington, Timothy B.

2006-07-01

The Longleaf Pine Ecosystem - Ecology, Silviculture, and Restoration. Shibu Jose, Eric J. Jokela, and Deborah L. Miller, (eds.) Springer Series on Environmental Management. Springer Science and Business Media publisher. Chapter 5. Pp 135-156. Chapter 5 of the book.

76 FR 64895 - Transportation and Related Equipment Technical Advisory Committee; Notice of Open Meeting

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-10-19

... equipment or technology. Agenda 1. Welcome and Introductions. 2. Status Reports of Working Groups. 3. Public... presentation materials to Yvette Springer. For more information contact Ms. Springer on (202) 482-2813. Dated...

Sourcing in the Air Force: An Optimization Approach

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-09-01

quality supplies and services at the lowest cost ( Gabbard , 2004). The commodity sourcing strategy focuses on developing a specific sourcing strategy...Springer Series in Operations Research. New York: Springer-Verlag. Gabbard , E.G. (2004, April). Strategic sourcing: Critical elements and keys to success

All in the Family: The Sister Study

MedlinePlus

... cohort of women. We are committed to enrolling women from all backgrounds, occupations, races, ethnicities and regions. Dr. Anna Nápoles-Springer, ... at the grassroots level, to enroll ethnic minority women, since historically we ... in research," says Dr. Nápoles-Springer. "Only by participating can ...

Northern Eurasia Earth Science Partnership Initiative in 2012: An Update

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Groisman, P. Y.; Lawford, R. G.; Kattsov, V.

2012-12-01

Seven years ago NEESPI was launched with the release of its Science Plan (http://neespi.org). Gradually, the Initiative was joined by numerous international projects launched in EU, Russia, the United States, Canada, Japan, and China. Throughout its duration, NEESPI served and is serving as an umbrella for more than 150 individual international research projects. Currently, the Initiative is in full swing. The total number of the ongoing NEESPI projects (as on July 2012) is 50 and has changed but slightly compared to its peak (87 in 2008). The past one and half years (2011 through mid-2012) were extremely productive in the NEESPI outreach. We organized five Open Science Sessions at the three major Geoscience Unions/Assembly Meetings (AGU, EGU, and JpGU) and four International NEESPI Workshops. The programs of two of these Workshops (in Tomsk and Irkutsk, Russia) included Summer Schools for early career scientists. More than 230 peer-reviewed papers, books, and/or book chapters were published or are in press (this list was still incomplete at the time of preparation of this abstract). In particular, a suite of 24 peer-reviewed NEESPI articles was published in the Forth Special NEESPI Issue of "Environmental Research Letters" (http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/focus/NEESPI3). Northern Eurasia is a large study domain. Therefore, it was decided to describe the latest findings related to its environmental changes in several regional monographs in English. Three books on Environmental Changes in the NEESPI domain were published by Springer Publishing. House (Gutman and Reissell, eds., 2011; Groisman and Gutman eds. 2013) and "Naukova Dumka" of Ukraine (Groisman and Lyalko, eds. 2012) being devoted to the high latitudes of Eurasia, to Siberia, and to Eastern Europe respectively. One more book by J. Chen et al. (eds.) Dryland East Asia: Land Dynamics amid Social and Climate Change has been prepared by the members of the NEESPI team for Springer and will be published in the first half of 2013. In this presentation, the description of the NEESPI Program will be complemented with an overview of the results presented in three latest our books "Earth System Change over Eastern Europe", "Regional Environmental Changes in Siberia and Their Global Consequences", and "Dryland East Asia: Land Dynamics amid Social and Climate Change". Cited references: Gutman, G. and A. Reissell (eds.) 2011: Arctic land cover and land use in a changing climate: Focus on Eurasia. VI, Springer, Amsterdam, The Netherlands, 306 pp. Groisman, P.Ya. and V.I. Lyalko (eds.), 2012: Earth Systems Change over Eastern Europe. Naukova Dumka, Kiev, The Ukraine, 487 pp. Groisman and Gutman (eds), 2013: Environmental Changes in Siberia: Regional Changes and their Global Consequences. Springer, Amsterdam, The Netherlands, 357 pp.

Plant competition, facilitation, and other overstory-understory interactions in longleaf pine ecosystems.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Imm, Donald; Blake, John I

2006-07-01

The Longleaf Pine Ecosystem - Ecology, Silviculture, and Restoration. Shibu Jose, Eric J. Jokela, and Deborah L. Miller, (eds.) Springer Series on Environmental Management. Springer Science and Business Media publisher. Box 10.2 Pp 330-333. An insert on overstory-understory interactions in longleaf pine ecosystems.

Research tools: ethylene preparation. In: Chi-Kuang Wen editor. Ethylene in plants. Springer Netherlands. Springer Link

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Ethylene is a plant hormone that regulates many aspects of plant growth and development, germination, fruit ripening, senescence, sex determination, abscission, defense, gravitropism, epinasty, and more. For experimental purposes, one needs to treat plant material with ethylene and its inhibitors t...

Enhanced Resources of the SMDC Monitoring Research Program for Source Information and Data Acquisition

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-09-01

Springer locations (red) with satellite imagery illustrating roundoff error in Springer locations (b). Comparison of Rainier Mesa tunnel location of...Burrows et al.; Bolt; IAEA South Pacific Burrows et al.; Bolt; IAEA; AWE India Pokhran Gupta/Pabian; Norris/Arkin North Korea Mount Mantap Richards

Bayesian Authentication: Quantifying Security of the Hancke-Kuhn Protocol

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-01-01

Conference on Advances in Cryptology, pages 169–177, London, UK, 1991. Springer-Verlag. [6] Stefan Brands and David Chaum . Distance-bounding protocols. In...Lecture Notes in Computer Science, pages 371–388. Springer, 2004. [30] Patrick Schaller, Benedikt Schmidt, David Basin, and Srdjan Capkun. Modeling and

Documentation for the Recruiting Cost Estimates Utilized in the Navy Comprehensive Compensation and Supply Study.

DTIC Science & Technology

1982-09-01

212 Integrals," Marseille, France, 4y 22-26. 1978) (PublIshed Mengel , Marc, "On Singular Characteristic Initial Value In Springer Verleg Lecture...at the Annual PP 228 meeting of he Anmrican Society for Information Science held Mengel , Marc, "Relaxation at Critical Points: Deterministic In San...Instabilities." PP 258 24 pp., Doec 1978 (Published In Journal of Chemical Physics, Mengel , Marc S. and Thames, Jees A., Jr.. "Analytical Vol. 69, NO. 8. Oct

Time-Critical Cooperative Path Following of Multiple UAVs over Time-Varying Networks

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-01-01

Notes in Control and Information Systems Series (K. Y. Pettersen, T. Gravdahl, and H. Nijmeijer, Eds.). Springer-Verlag, 2006. 29M. Breivik , V...Information Systems Series (K. Y. Pettersen, T. Gravdahl, and H. Nijmeijer, Eds.). Springer-Verlag, 2006. 31M. Breivik , E. Hovstein, and T. I. Fossen. Ship

Prescribed fire and cutting as tools for reducing woody plant succession in a created salt marsh

USGS Publications Warehouse

Owens, A.B.; Proffitt, C.E.; Grace, J.B.

2007-01-01

This paper reports on efforts to reduce woody successional growth by the native shrub Iva frutescens L. in a created salt marsh by using prescribed fire and cutting. Experimental treatments included a winter burn, cutting plants at ground level, and a combination burn-and-cut treatment, with replicate plots of each. Iva frutescens proved to be extremely hardy, with zero mortality following the cutting, burning, or combination treatment; similar levels of regrowth were observed for all treatments. Individual shrub response, however, was found to be related to initial plant size, ground water level and salinity, and two fire characteristics (total heating >60??C and total heat index >60??C). Fire severity, sediment nutrient concentrations, and other abiotic factors had no observable effects. ?? 2007 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

Heritability of lenticular myopia in English Springer spaniels.

PubMed

Kubai, Melissa A; Labelle, Amber L; Hamor, Ralph E; Mutti, Donald O; Famula, Thomas R; Murphy, Christopher J

2013-11-08

We determined whether naturally-occurring lenticular myopia in English Springer spaniels (ESS) has a genetic component. Streak retinoscopy was performed on 226 related ESS 30 minutes after the onset of pharmacologic mydriasis and cycloplegia. A pedigree was constructed to determine relationships between affected offspring and parents. Estimation of heritability was done in a Bayesian analysis (facilitated by the MCMCglmm package of R) of refractive error in a model, including terms for sex and coat color. Myopia was defined as ≤-0.5 diopters (D) spherical equivalent. The median refractive error for ESS was 0.25 D (range, -3.5 to +4.5 D). Median age was 0.2 years (range, 0.1-15 years). The prevalence of myopia in related ESS was 19% (42/226). The ESS had a strong correlation (r = 0.95) for refractive error between the two eyes. Moderate heritability was present for refractive error with a mean value of 0.29 (95% highest probability density, 0.07-0.50). The distribution of refractive error, and subsequently lenticular myopia, has a moderate genetic component in ESS. Further investigation of genes responsible for regulation of the development of refractive ocular components in canines is warranted.

Hemolysis, myopathy, and cardiac disease associated with hereditary phosphofructokinase deficiency in two Whippets

PubMed Central

Gerber, Karen; Harvey, John W.; D'Agorne, Sara; Wood, Jonathan; Giger, Urs

2009-01-01

Two male castrated Whippet littermates were presented at 1 year of age for pallor, tachycardia, systolic heart murmur, dark yellow to orange feces, intermittent lethargy, pigmenturia, and muscle shivering or cramping after exercise. Persistent macrocytic hypochromic anemia with marked reticulocytosis and metarubricytosis was found when CBC results were compared with reference values for Whippets. Increased serum creatine kinase activity and hyperkalemia also were sometimes present over the 4-year period of evaluation. Progressively increasing serum concentrations of N-terminal prohormone brain natriuretic peptide suggested cardiac disease. Erythrocytes from the whippets were less osmotically fragile but more alkaline fragile than those from control dogs. Erythrocyte phosphofructokinase (PFK) activities and 2,3-diphosphoglycerate concentrations were decreased. Restriction enzyme-based DNA test screening and DNA sequencing revealed the same mutation in the muscle-PFK gene of the Whippets as seen in English Springer Spaniel dogs with PFK deficiency. This is the first report of PFK deficiency in Whippet dogs. In addition to causing hemolysis and exertional myopathy, heart disease may be a prominent clinical component of PFK deficiency in this breed and has not been previously recognized in PFK-deficient English Springer Spaniels. PMID:19228357

Desert potholes: Ephemeral aquatic microsystems

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chan, M.A.; Moser, K.; Davis, J.M.; Southam, G.; Hughes, K.; Graham, T.

2005-01-01

An enigma of the Colorado Plateau high desert is the "pothole", which ranges from shallow ephemeral puddles to deeply carved pools. The existence of prokaryotic to eukaryotic organisms within these pools is largely controlled by the presence of collected rainwater. Multivariate statistical analysis of physical and chemical limnologic data variables measured from potholes indicates spatial and temporal variations, particularly in water depth, manganese, iron, nitrate and sulfate concentrations and salinity. Variation in water depth and salinity are likely related to the amount of time since the last precipitation, whereas the other variables may be related to redox potential. The spatial and temporal variations in water chemistry affect the distribution of organisms, which must adapt to daily and seasonal extremes of fluctuating temperature (0-60 ??C), pH changes of as much as 5 units over 12 days, and desiccation. For example, many species become dormant when potholes dry, in order to endure intense heat, UV radiation, desiccation and freezing, only to flourish again upon rehydration. But the pothole organisms also have a profound impact on the potholes. Through photosynthesis and respiration, pothole organisms affect redox potential, and indirectly alter the water chemistry. Laboratory examination of dried biofilm from the potholes revealed that within 2 weeks of hydration, the surface of the desiccated, black biofilm became green from cyanobacterial growth, which supported significant growth in heterotrophic bacterial populations. This complex biofilm is persumably responsible for dissolving the cement between the sandstone grains, allowing the potholes to enlarge, and for sealing the potholes, enabling them to retain water longer than the surrounding sandstone. Despite the remarkable ability of life in potholes to persist, desert potholes may be extremely sensitive to anthropogenic effects. The unique limnology and ecology of Utah potholes holds great scientific value for understanding water-rock-biological interactions with possible applications to life on other planetary bodies. ?? Springer 2005.

Why the Short-War Scenario is Wrong for Naval Planning.

DTIC Science & Technology

1982-07-01

34On Singular Chaaecteristic Initial Value In Springer Verlag Lecture Notes In Physics. 106, (1979), Proble m with Unique Solution," 20 pp., Jun 1978...34 Huntzinger, R. L&ar, " Market Analysis wilth Rational Epc’ 50 pp., Jan 1978, AD A08 541 tations: Theory end Estimation," 60 Pp., Wg 78, AD A054 422 PP 230 PP...1979 (Presanted at the Nlow Conference on -Low AD A077 636 Inome Lor Markets ," Cuicago. Jun 1978), AD AD%6 629 pp 246 Thie, Jawse A., Jr., "The

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Vertesi, T.; Bene, E.

A bipartite Bell inequality is derived which is maximally violated on the two-qubit state space if measurements describable by positive operator valued measure (POVM) elements are allowed, rather than restricting the possible measurements to projective ones. In particular, the presented Bell inequality requires POVMs in order to be maximally violated by a maximally entangled two-qubit state. This answers a question raised by N. Gisin [in Quantum Reality, Relativistic Causality, and Closing the Epistemic Circle: Essays in Honour of Abner Shimony, edited by W. C. Myrvold and J. Christian (Springer, The Netherlands, 2009), pp. 125-138].

The World's Approach toward Publishing in Springer and Elsevier's APC-Funded Open Access Journals

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sotudeh, Hajar; Ghasempour, Zahra

2018-01-01

Purpose: The present study explored tendencies of the world's countries--at individual and scientific development levels--toward publishing in APC-funded open access journals. Design/Methodology/Approach: Using a bibliometric method, it studied OA and NOA articles issued in Springer and Elsevier's APC journals? during 2007-2011. The data were…

Field survey of the March 28, 2005 Nias-Simeulue earthquake and Tsunami

USGS Publications Warehouse

Borrero, J.C.; McAdoo, B.; Jaffe, B.; Dengler, L.; Gelfenbaum, G.; Higman, B.; Hidayat, R.; Moore, A.; Kongko, W.; ,; Peters, R.; Prasetya, G.; Titov, V.; Yulianto, E.

2011-01-01

On the evening of March 28, 2005 at 11:09 p.m. local time (16:09 UTC), a large earthquake occurred offshore of West Sumatra, Indonesia. With a moment magnitude (Mw) of 8.6, the event caused substantial shaking damage and land level changes between Simeulue Island in the north and the Batu Islands in the south. The earthquake also generated a tsunami, which was observed throughout the source region as well as on distant tide gauges. While the tsunami was not as extreme as the tsunami of December 26th, 2004, it did cause significant flooding and damage at some locations. The spatial and temporal proximity of the two events led to a unique set of observational data from the earthquake and tsunami as well as insights relevant to tsunami hazard planning and education efforts. ?? 2010 Springer Basel AG.

The Physics of Marine Fog

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Browning, David; Scheifele, Peter

2002-04-01

The "fog-bound" coast of New England has posed a hazard to all forms of transportation for centuries, yet relatively little study, especially in recent times, has been done on the physics of fog. The singular study of sound propagation, conducted in 1959, found no apparent increase over the normal frequency dependent absorption in air. However, a recent text (W. Binhua, SEA FOG, Springer-Verlag, 1985) indicates that this was only a moderate fog and not the much more intense ("killer") fogs. For these the aggregaton of water droplets may lead to increased low frequency absorption thus reducing the effective range of existing foghorns. On land, advances in light scattering might be applied to provide a simple mobile means (mounted on a police car, for example) to quickly identify extreme conditions and take precautionary action on the highway to prevent the horrific multi-car collisions that can occur.

22. GENERAL VIEW FROM SOUTHWEST: WEST END AND SOUTH SIDE ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

22. GENERAL VIEW FROM SOUTHWEST: WEST END AND SOUTH SIDE OF HOUSE (NOTE PARAPETED GABLE); SMOKE HOUSE TO RIGHT (NOTE STEPPED GABLE); OLD SMOKE HOUSE (NOW DEMOLISHED) NEXT TO TREE IN FOREGROUND; OLD KITCHEN (NOW DEMOLISHED) NEXT TO FENCE Photocopy of ca. 1870 photograph Collection of Springer Homestead Archives, c/o Gerald Cunningham, Jessup, Maryland - Levi Springer House, Fan Hollow Road, Uniontown, Fayette County, PA

Measurements of spectral optical properties and their relation to biogeochemical variables and processes in Crater Lake, Crater Lake National Park, OR

USGS Publications Warehouse

Boss, E.S.; Collier, R.; Larson, G.; Fennel, K.; Pegau, W.S.

2007-01-01

Spectral inherent optical properties (IOPs) have been measured at Crater Lake, OR, an extremely clear sub-alpine lake. Indeed Pure water IOPs are major contributors to the total IOPs, and thus to the color of the lake. Variations in the spatial distribution of IOPs were observed in June and September 2001, and reflect biogeochemical processes in the lake. Absorption by colored dissolved organic material increases with depth and between June and September in the upper 300 m. This pattern is consistent with a net release of dissolved organic materials from primary and secondary production through the summer and its photo-oxidation near the surface. Waters fed by a tributary near the lake's rim exhibited low levels of absorption by dissolved organic materials. Scattering is mostly dominated by organic particulate material, though inorganic material is found to enter the lake from the rim following a rain storm. Several similarities to oceanic oligotrophic regions are observed: (a) The Beam attenuation correlates well with particulate organic material (POM) and the relationship is similar to that observed in the open ocean. (b) The specific absorption of colored dissolved organic material has a value similar to that of open ocean humic material. (c) The distribution of chlorophyll with depth does not follow the distribution of particulate organic material due to photo-acclimation resulting in a subsurface pigment maximum located about 50 m below the POM maximum. ?? 2007 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

Gestational Exposure as Epigenetic Modifier of Breast Cancer Risk

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-10-01

2015).  Books or other non-periodical, one-time publications. Romagnolo DF, and Selmin OI. Co-Editors. Mediterranean Diet : Impact on Health and...Disease. Humana Press/Springer (2015, In Press). Romagnolo DF and Selmin OI. Opportunities and Challenges for Adoption of the Mediterranean Diet . In... Mediterranean Diet : Impact on Health and Disease. 2015, Humana Press/Springer Pubs (In press). 14 Romagnolo DF and Selmin OI. Epigenetics of Endocrine

Echocardiographic assessments of longitudinal left ventricular function in healthy English Springer spaniels.

PubMed

Dickson, D; Shave, R; Rishniw, M; Patteson, M

2017-08-01

To establish reference intervals for echocardiographic measures of longitudinal left ventricular function in adult English Springer spaniel (ESS) dogs. This study involved 42 healthy adult ESS. Animals were prospectively recruited from a general practice population in the United Kingdom. Dogs were examined twice, at least 12 months apart, to exclude dogs with progressive cardiac disease. Mitral annular plane systolic excursion, tissue Doppler imaging mitral annular velocities and two-dimensional speckle-tracking echocardiographic left ventricular longitudinal strain and strain rate were measured. Intraoperator and intraobserver variability were examined and reference intervals were calculated. The potential effects of body weight, age and heart rate on these variables were examined. Intraoperator and intraobserver variability was <10% for all parameters except tissue Doppler imaging E' (the peak velocity of early diastolic mitral annular motion as determined by pulsed wave Doppler) and two-dimensional speckle-tracking echocardiographic variables, which were all <20%. Thirty-nine dogs were used to create reference intervals. Significant (but mostly weak) effects of age, heart rate and body weight on were detected. Reference intervals were similar to previously published values in different breeds. Breed specific reference intervals for measures of longitudinal left ventricular function in the ESS are presented. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Countering Terrorism: Engagement, Development and Deterrence

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-12-01

2009, Naval Postgraduate School. 3 Bruce Schneier, Beyond Fear: Thinking Sensibly About Security in an Uncertain World (New York, NY: Springer...by using force, which is being perceived as unjust, and driving ordinary people to accept the logic of terrorism as a response to the U.S. use of...Schneier, Beyond Fear: Thinking Sensibly About Security in an Uncertain World (New York: Springer, 2006), 208. 8 Crenshaw, “The Causes of Terrorism,” 385

Programming Environments for High Level Scientific Problem Solving. IFIP WG 2.5 Working Conference 6 Held in Karlsruhe, Germany on September 23 - 27, 1991

DTIC Science & Technology

1991-09-27

Springer Verlag (1989). (13] Hulshof , B.J.A. and van Hulzen, J.A.: "Automatic error cumulation control", Proceedir EUROSAM 󈨘 (J. Fitch. ed.), Springer...User’s Manual", Dept of Comp. Science. Univ. of Twente (In preparation). 268 [15] van Hulzen, J.A., Hulshof , B.J.A.. Gates, B.L. and van Heerwaarden, M.C

Computational Intelligence Applications for Defense

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-02-18

Eds. Neurodynamics of Higher-Level Cognition and Consciousness. Heidelberg, Germany: Springer-Verlag, 2007. [29] L. I. Perlovsky, R. Kozma...Editorial - Neurodynamics of Cognition and Consciousness,” In Neurodynamics of Cognition and Consciousness, Perlovsky, L., R. Kozma, Eds., Springer...difficulties: complexity and logic……………………………………………………...3 3. Cognitive mechanisms: mathematical models and experimental evidence………………...4 4

Min and Max Exponential Extreme Interval Values and Statistics

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jance, Marsha; Thomopoulos, Nick

2009-01-01

The extreme interval values and statistics (expected value, median, mode, standard deviation, and coefficient of variation) for the smallest (min) and largest (max) values of exponentially distributed variables with parameter ? = 1 are examined for different observation (sample) sizes. An extreme interval value g[subscript a] is defined as a…

Invited Speaker Support for SBP Conference Series (SBP 2014) held in April, 2014 in Washington, DC.

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-07-23

Experts in Social Media Wenhui Liao, Sameena Shah and Masoud Makrehchi Talk 2 Predicting Social Ties in Massively Multiplayer Online Games Jina...sweets, beverages SBP Poster The Needs of Metaphor David Bracewell SBP Poster Predicting Guild Membership in Massively Multiplayer Online ...Science series. These proceedings can be accessed online through the following link: http://link.springer.com/book/10.1007%2F978-3-319-05579-4 (Springer

Killer whales and marine mammal trends in the North Pacific - A re-examination of evidence for sequential megafauna collapse and the prey-switching hypothesis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wade, P.R.; Burkanov, V.N.; Dahlheim, M.E.; Friday, N.A.; Fritz, L.W.; Loughlin, Thomas R.; Mizroch, S.A.; Muto, M.M.; Rice, D.W.; Barrett-Lennard, L. G.; Black, N.A.; Burdin, A.M.; Calambokidis, J.; Cerchio, S.; Ford, J.K.B.; Jacobsen, J.K.; Matkin, C.O.; Matkin, D.R.; Mehta, A.V.; Small, R.J.; Straley, J.M.; McCluskey, S.M.; VanBlaricom, G.R.; Clapham, P.J.

2007-01-01

Springer et al. (2003) contend that sequential declines occurred in North Pacific populations of harbor and fur seals, Steller sea lions, and sea otters. They hypothesize that these were due to increased predation by killer whales, when industrial whaling's removal of large whales as a supposed primary food source precipitated a prey switch. Using a regional approach, we reexamined whale catch data, killer whale predation observations, and the current biomass and trends of potential prey, and found little support for the prey-switching hypothesis. Large whale biomass in the Bering Sea did not decline as much as suggested by Springer et al., and much of the reduction occurred 50-100 yr ago, well before the declines of pinnipeds and sea otters began; thus, the need to switch prey starting in the 1970s is doubtful. With the sole exception that the sea otter decline followed the decline of pinnipeds, the reported declines were not in fact sequential. Given this, it is unlikely that a sequential megafaunal collapse from whales to sea otters occurred. The spatial and temporal patterns of pinniped and sea otter population trends are more complex than Springer et al. suggest, and are often inconsistent with their hypothesis. Populations remained stable or increased in many areas, despite extensive historical whaling and high killer whale abundance. Furthermore, observed killer whale predation has largely involved pinnipeds and small cetaceans; there is little evidence that large whales were ever a major prey item in high latitudes. Small cetaceans (ignored by Springer et al.) were likely abundant throughout the period. Overall, we suggest that the Springer et al. hypothesis represents a misleading and simplistic view of events and trophic relationships within this complex marine ecosystem. ?? 2007 by the Society for Marine Mammalogy.

Assessing the features of extreme smog in China and the differentiated treatment strategy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deng, Lu; Zhang, Zhengjun

2018-01-01

Extreme smog can have potentially harmful effects on human health, the economy and daily life. However, the average (mean) values do not provide strategically useful information on the hazard analysis and control of extreme smog. This article investigates China's smog extremes by applying extreme value analysis to hourly PM2.5 data from 2014 to 2016 obtained from monitoring stations across China. By fitting a generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution to exceedances over a station-specific extreme smog level at each monitoring location, all study stations are grouped into eight different categories based on the estimated mean and shape parameter values of fitted GEV distributions. The extreme features characterized by the mean of the fitted extreme value distribution, the maximum frequency and the tail index of extreme smog at each location are analysed. These features can provide useful information for central/local government to conduct differentiated treatments in cities within different categories and conduct similar prevention goals and control strategies among those cities belonging to the same category in a range of areas. Furthermore, hazardous hours, breaking probability and the 1-year return level of each station are demonstrated by category, based on which the future control and reduction targets of extreme smog are proposed for the cities of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei as an example.

Comparison of the Effects of Walking with and without Nordic Pole on Upper Extremity and Lower Extremity Muscle Activation.

PubMed

Shim, Je-Myung; Kwon, Hae-Yeon; Kim, Ha-Roo; Kim, Bo-In; Jung, Ju-Hyeon

2013-12-01

[Purpose] The aim of this study was to assess the effect of Nordic pole walking on the electromyographic activities of upper extremity and lower extremity muscles. [Subjects and Methods] The subjects were randomly divided into two groups as follows: without Nordic pole walking group (n=13) and with Nordic pole walking group (n=13). The EMG data were collected by measurement while the subjects walking on a treadmill for 30 minutes by measuring from one heel strike to the next. [Results] Both the average values and maximum values of the muscle activity of the upper extremity increased in both the group that used Nordic poles and the group that did not use Nordic poles, and the values showed statistically significant differences. There was an increase in the average value for muscle activity of the latissimus dorsi, but the difference was not statistically significant, although there was a statistically significant increase in its maximum value. The average and maximum values for muscle activity of the lower extremity did not show large differences in either group, and the values did not show any statistically significant differences. [Conclusion] The use of Nordic poles by increased muscle activity of the upper extremity compared with regular walking but did not affect the lower extremity.

Comparison of the Effects of Walking with and without Nordic Pole on Upper Extremity and Lower Extremity Muscle Activation

PubMed Central

Shim, Je-myung; Kwon, Hae-yeon; Kim, Ha-roo; Kim, Bo-in; Jung, Ju-hyeon

2014-01-01

[Purpose] The aim of this study was to assess the effect of Nordic pole walking on the electromyographic activities of upper extremity and lower extremity muscles. [Subjects and Methods] The subjects were randomly divided into two groups as follows: without Nordic pole walking group (n=13) and with Nordic pole walking group (n=13). The EMG data were collected by measurement while the subjects walking on a treadmill for 30 minutes by measuring from one heel strike to the next. [Results] Both the average values and maximum values of the muscle activity of the upper extremity increased in both the group that used Nordic poles and the group that did not use Nordic poles, and the values showed statistically significant differences. There was an increase in the average value for muscle activity of the latissimus dorsi, but the difference was not statistically significant, although there was a statistically significant increase in its maximum value. The average and maximum values for muscle activity of the lower extremity did not show large differences in either group, and the values did not show any statistically significant differences. [Conclusion] The use of Nordic poles by increased muscle activity of the upper extremity compared with regular walking but did not affect the lower extremity. PMID:24409018

Target Tracking Based Scene Analysis

DTIC Science & Technology

1984-08-01

1082 , pp 377-391. [21 S.T. Barnard and M.A. Fisch~ler, "Computational Stereo", Computing Surveys 14, 1082 , pp 553-572. 131 K.H. Bers, M. Bohner, and P...Braunlage/Harz. FRG, June 21 - July 2, 1082 Springer, Berlin, 1083. pp 10.1-124. [81 R.B. Cate, T.*1B. Dennis, J.T. Mallin, K.S. Nedelman, NEIL Trenchard, and...Institute on Pictorial Data Analysis, Bonas, France, August 1-12, 1082 ), Springer, Berlin, 1983. [181 G.R. Legters Jr. and T.Y. Young, "A Mathematical

Design and Analysis of Experiments and More Realistic Techniques for Data Analysis.

DTIC Science & Technology

1986-03-01

Schwarzschild 1974-79 (Ph.D. 1979) P. Slasor 1984-85 (still a graduate student) David E. Tyler 1974-75 (Ph.D. 1979) Paul Velleman 1973-1974 (Ph.D...Statistics: Proceedings of the 14th Symposium on the Interface, eds. Karl W. Heiner, Richard S. Sacher and John W. Wilkinson, Springer-Verlag, New York...Proceedings of the 14th Symposium on the Interface, eds. Karl W. Heiner, Richard S. Sacher and John W. Wilkinson, Springer-Verlag, New York, 60-66. Tukey, John

On the entropy of glaucophane Na2Mg3Al2Si8O22(OH)2

USGS Publications Warehouse

Robie, R.A.; Hemingway, B.S.; Gillet, P.; Reynard, B.

1991-01-01

The heat capacity of glaucophane from the Sesia-Lanza region of Italy having the approximate composition (Na1.93Ca0.05Fe0.02) (Mg2.60Fe0.41) (Al1.83Fe0.15Cr0.01) (Si7.92Al0.08)O22(OH)2 was measured by adiabatic calorimetry between 4.6 and 359.4 K. After correcting the Cp0data to values for ideal glaucophane, Na2Mg3Al2Si8O22(OH)2 the third-law entropy S2980-S00was calculated to be 541.2??3.0 J??mol-1??K-1. Our value for S2980-S00is 12.0 J??mol-1??K-1 (2.2%) smaller than the value of Likhoydov et al. (1982), 553.2??3.0, is within 6.2 J??mol-1??K-1 of the value estimated by Holland (1988), and agrees remarkably well with the value calculated by Gillet et al. (1989) from spectroscopic data, 539 J??mol-1??K-1. ?? 1991 Springer-Verlag.

Estimation of elastic moduli in a compressible Gibson half-space by inverting Rayleigh-wave phase velocity

USGS Publications Warehouse

Xia, J.; Xu, Y.; Miller, R.D.; Chen, C.

2006-01-01

A Gibson half-space model (a non-layered Earth model) has the shear modulus varying linearly with depth in an inhomogeneous elastic half-space. In a half-space of sedimentary granular soil under a geostatic state of initial stress, the density and the Poisson's ratio do not vary considerably with depth. In such an Earth body, the dynamic shear modulus is the parameter that mainly affects the dispersion of propagating waves. We have estimated shear-wave velocities in the compressible Gibson half-space by inverting Rayleigh-wave phase velocities. An analytical dispersion law of Rayleigh-type waves in a compressible Gibson half-space is given in an algebraic form, which makes our inversion process extremely simple and fast. The convergence of the weighted damping solution is guaranteed through selection of the damping factor using the Levenberg-Marquardt method. Calculation efficiency is achieved by reconstructing a weighted damping solution using singular value decomposition techniques. The main advantage of this algorithm is that only three parameters define the compressible Gibson half-space model. Theoretically, to determine the model by the inversion, only three Rayleigh-wave phase velocities at different frequencies are required. This is useful in practice where Rayleigh-wave energy is only developed in a limited frequency range or at certain frequencies as data acquired at manmade structures such as dams and levees. Two real examples are presented and verified by borehole S-wave velocity measurements. The results of these real examples are also compared with the results of the layered-Earth model. ?? Springer 2006.

Summer temperature variation and implications for juvenile Atlantic salmon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mather, M. E.; Parrish, D.L.; Campbell, C.A.; McMenemy, J.R.; Smith, Joseph M.

2008-01-01

Temperature is important to fish in determining their geographic distribution. For cool- and cold-water fish, thermal regimes are especially critical at the southern end of a species' range. Although temperature is an easy variable to measure, biological interpretation is difficult. Thus, how to determine what temperatures are meaningful to fish in the field is a challenge. Herein, we used the Connecticut River as a model system and Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) as a model species with which to assess the effects of summer temperatures on the density of age 0 parr. Specifically, we asked: (1) What are the spatial and temporal temperature patterns in the Connecticut River during summer? (2) What metrics might detect effects of high temperatures? and (3) How is temperature variability related to density of Atlantic salmon during their first summer? Although the most southern site was the warmest, some northern sites were also warm, and some southern sites were moderately cool. This suggests localized, within basin variation in temperature. Daily and hourly means showed extreme values not apparent in the seasonal means. We observed significant relationships between age 0 parr density and days at potentially stressful, warm temperatures (???23??C). Based on these results, we propose that useful field reference points need to incorporate the synergistic effect of other stressors that fish encounter in the field as well as the complexity associated with cycling temperatures and thermal refuges. Understanding the effects of temperature may aid conservation efforts for Atlantic salmon in the Connecticut River and other North Atlantic systems. ?? 2008 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

Extreme values in the Chinese and American stock markets based on detrended fluctuation analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cao, Guangxi; Zhang, Minjia

2015-10-01

This paper focuses on the comparative analysis of extreme values in the Chinese and American stock markets based on the detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) algorithm using the daily data of Shanghai composite index and Dow Jones Industrial Average. The empirical results indicate that the multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA) method is more objective than the traditional percentile method. The range of extreme value of Dow Jones Industrial Average is smaller than that of Shanghai composite index, and the extreme value of Dow Jones Industrial Average is more time clustering. The extreme value of the Chinese or American stock markets is concentrated in 2008, which is consistent with the financial crisis in 2008. Moreover, we investigate whether extreme events affect the cross-correlation between the Chinese and American stock markets using multifractal detrended cross-correlation analysis algorithm. The results show that extreme events have nothing to do with the cross-correlation between the Chinese and American stock markets.

Sheathfolds in rheomorphic ignimbrites

USGS Publications Warehouse

Branney, M.J.; Barry, T.L.; Godchaux, Martha

2004-01-01

Structural reappraisal of several classic rheomorphic ignimbrites in Colorado, Idaho, the Canary Islands and Italy has, for the first time, revealed abundant oblique folds, curvilinear folds and sheathfolds which formed during emplacement. Like their equivalents in tectonic shear-zones, the sheathfold axes lie sub-parallel to a pervasive elongation lineation, and appear as eye structures on rock surfaces normal to the transport direction. With the recognition of sheathfolds, ignimbrites previously inferred to have undergone complex rheomorphic deformation histories are re-interpreted as recording a single, progressive deformation event. In some examples, the trends of sheathfolds and related lineations change with height through a single ignimbrite suggesting that rheomorphism did not affect the entire thickness of ignimbrite synchronously. Instead, we infer that in these ignimbrites a thin ductile shear-zone rose gradually through the aggrading agglutinating mass whilst the flow direction varied with time. This suggests that, in some cases, both welding and rheomorphism can be extremely rapid, with ductile strain rates significantly exceeding rates of ignimbrite aggradation. ?? Springer-Verlag 2004.

Valuing happiness is associated with bipolar disorder.

PubMed

Ford, Brett Q; Mauss, Iris B; Gruber, June

2015-04-01

Although people who experience happiness tend to have better psychological health, people who value happiness to an extreme tend to have worse psychological health, including more depression. We propose that the extreme valuing of happiness may be a general risk factor for mood disturbances, both depressive and manic. To test this hypothesis, we examined the relationship between the extreme valuing of happiness and risk for, diagnosis of, and illness course for bipolar disorder (BD). Supporting our hypothesis, the extreme valuing of happiness was associated with a measure of increased risk for developing BD (Studies 1 and 2), increased likelihood of past diagnosis of BD (Studies 2 and 3), and worse prospective illness course in BD (Study 3), even when controlling for current mood symptoms (Studies 1-3). These findings indicate that the extreme valuing of happiness is associated with and even predicts BD. Taken together with previous evidence, these findings suggest that the extreme valuing of happiness is a general risk factor for mood disturbances. More broadly, what emotions people strive to feel may play a critical role in psychological health. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

Valuing happiness is associated with bipolar disorder

PubMed Central

Ford, Brett Q.; Mauss, Iris B.; Gruber, June

2015-01-01

While people who experience happiness tend to have better psychological health, people who value happiness to an extreme tend to have worse psychological health, including more depression. We propose that the extreme valuing of happiness may be a general risk factor for mood disturbances, both depressive and manic. To test this hypothesis, we examined the relationship between the extreme valuing of happiness and risk for, diagnosis of, and illness course for Bipolar Disorder (BD). Supporting our hypothesis, the extreme valuing of happiness was associated with a measure of increased risk for developing BD (Studies 1–2), increased likelihood of past diagnosis of BD (Studies 2–3), and worse prospective illness course in BD (Study 3), even when controlling for current mood symptoms (Studies 1–3). These findings indicate that the extreme valuing of happiness is associated with and even predicts BD. Taken together with previous evidence, these findings suggest that the extreme valuing of happiness is a general risk factor for mood disturbances. More broadly, what emotions people strive to feel may play a critical role in psychological health. PMID:25603134

A century of climate and ecosystem change in Western Montana: What do temperature trends portend?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pederson, G.T.; Graumlich, L.J.; Fagre, D.B.; Kipfer, T.; Muhlfeld, C.C.

2010-01-01

The physical science linking human-induced increases in greenhouse gasses to the warming of the global climate system is well established, but the implications of this warming for ecosystem processes and services at regional scales is still poorly understood. Thus, the objectives of this work were to: (1) describe rates of change in temperature averages and extremes for western Montana, a region containing sensitive resources and ecosystems, (2) investigate associations between Montana temperature change to hemispheric and global temperature change, (3) provide climate analysis tools for land and resource managers responsible for researching and maintaining renewable resources, habitat, and threatened/endangered species and (4) integrate our findings into a more general assessment of climate impacts on ecosystem processes and services over the past century. Over 100 years of daily and monthly temperature data collected in western Montana, USA are analyzed for long-term changes in seasonal averages and daily extremes. In particular, variability and trends in temperature above or below ecologically and socially meaningful thresholds within this region (e.g., -17.8??C (0??F), 0??C (32??F), and 32.2??C (90??F)) are assessed. The daily temperature time series reveal extremely cold days (??? -17.8??C) terminate on average 20 days earlier and decline in number, whereas extremely hot days (???32??C) show a three-fold increase in number and a 24-day increase in seasonal window during which they occur. Results show that regionally important thresholds have been exceeded, the most recent of which include the timing and number of the 0??C freeze/thaw temperatures during spring and fall. Finally, we close with a discussion on the implications for Montana's ecosystems. Special attention is given to critical processes that respond non-linearly as temperatures exceed critical thresholds, and have positive feedbacks that amplify the changes. ?? Springer Science + Business Media B.V. 2009.

Extreme-value dependence: An application to exchange rate markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fernandez, Viviana

2007-04-01

Extreme value theory (EVT) focuses on modeling the tail behavior of a loss distribution using only extreme values rather than the whole data set. For a sample of 10 countries with dirty/free float regimes, we investigate whether paired currencies exhibit a pattern of asymptotic dependence. That is, whether an extremely large appreciation or depreciation in the nominal exchange rate of one country might transmit to another. In general, after controlling for volatility clustering and inertia in returns, we do not find evidence of extreme-value dependence between paired exchange rates. However, for asymptotic-independent paired returns, we find that tail dependency of exchange rates is stronger under large appreciations than under large depreciations.

Correction to: Associations between attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder and autoimmune diseases are modified by sex: a population-based cross-sectional study.

PubMed

Hegvik, Tor-Arne; Instanes, Johanne Telnes; Haavik, Jan; Klungsøyr, Kari; Engeland, Anders

2018-05-01

The article "Associations between attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder and autoimmune diseases are modified by sex: a population-based cross-sectional study", written by Tor-Arne Hegvik, Johanne Telnes Instanes, Jan Haavik, Kari Klungsøyr and Anders Engeland, was originally published electronically on the publisher's internet portal (currently SpringerLink) on October 5, 2017 without open access due to an error by the Springer editorial office in the processing of this article. The authors had originally opted for open access.

Temporal Dynamics of Two Beam Coupling and the Origin of Compensation Photorefractive Gratings in Sn2P2S6:Sb (Postprint)

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-03-29

A. Grabar, and I. Stoyka, “Photorefraction in tin hypothiodiphosphate in the near infrared,” J. Opt. Soc. Am. B 13(10), 2352–2360 (1996). 2. S...Odoulov, A. Shumelyuk, U. Hellwig, R. Rupp, A. Grabar, and I. Stoyka, “Photorefractive beam coupling in tin hypothiodiphosphate in the near infrared,” Opt...Materials, P. Günter and J.-P. Huignard, eds. Vol. 113 of Springer Series in Optical Sciences (Springer, 2006), pp. 119–162. 1. Introduction Tin

Exchangeability, extreme returns and Value-at-Risk forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Chun-Kai; North, Delia; Zewotir, Temesgen

2017-07-01

In this paper, we propose a new approach to extreme value modelling for the forecasting of Value-at-Risk (VaR). In particular, the block maxima and the peaks-over-threshold methods are generalised to exchangeable random sequences. This caters for the dependencies, such as serial autocorrelation, of financial returns observed empirically. In addition, this approach allows for parameter variations within each VaR estimation window. Empirical prior distributions of the extreme value parameters are attained by using resampling procedures. We compare the results of our VaR forecasts to that of the unconditional extreme value theory (EVT) approach and the conditional GARCH-EVT model for robust conclusions.

Monitoring of a Southern Giant Petrel Macronectes giganteus population on the Frazier Islands, Wilkes Land, Antarctica

USGS Publications Warehouse

Creuwels, J.C.S.; Stark, J.S.; Woehler, Eric J.; Van Franeker, J. A.; Ribic, C.A.

2005-01-01

Since 1956, Southern Giant Petrels on the Frazier Islands, East Antarctica, have been counted with different census techniques, sometimes varying within seasons and among islands, which hindered analysis of the data. Protective measures for the islands from 1986 onwards have increased the need for reliable long-term census data, but reduced the ways to collect these data. Published and unpublished data were re-examined, and population trends were reconstructed based on two relatively standardised techniques: the number of active chicks (AC) and the number of apparently occupied nests (AON) around hatching. AC-values from Nelly Island from 1959 to 1998 indicate substantial periodic fluctuations, but no consistent long-term change. Since the late 1970s, AC-values on the other two islands and AON-values suggest that the breeding population may have grown by 35%. This recent growth, however, is within the extent of periodic fluctuations observed in Southern Giant Petrel population that is stable over the long term. ?? Springer-Verlag 2004.

Seasonality of diel cycles of dissolved trace-metal concentrations in a Rocky Mountain stream

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nimick, D.A.; Cleasby, T.E.; McCleskey, R. Blaine

2005-01-01

Substantial diel (24-h) cycles in dissolved (0.1-??m filtration) metal concentrations were observed during summer low flow, winter low flow, and snowmelt runoff in Prickly Pear Creek, Montana. During seven diel sampling episodes lasting 34-61.5 h, dissolved Mn and Zn concentrations increased from afternoon minimum values to maximum values shortly after sunrise. Dissolved As concentrations exhibited the inverse timing. The magnitude of diel concentration increases varied in the range 17-152% for Mn and 70-500% for Zn. Diel increases of As concentrations (17-55%) were less variable. The timing of minimum and maximum values of diel streamflow cycles was inconsistent among sampling episodes and had little relation to the timing of metal concentration cycles, suggesting that geochemical rather than hydrological processes are the primary control of diel metal cycles. Diel cycles of dissolved metal concentrations should be assumed to occur at any time of year in any stream with dissolved metals and neutral to alkaline pH. ?? Springer-Verlag 2005.

Statistic analysis of annual total ozone extremes for the period 1964-1988

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Krzyscin, Janusz W.

1994-01-01

Annual extremes of total column amount of ozone (in the period 1964-1988) from a network of 29 Dobson stations have been examined using the extreme value analysis. The extremes have been calculated as the highest deviation of daily mean total ozone from its long-term monthly mean, normalized by the monthly standard deviations. The extremes have been selected from the direct-Sun total ozone observations only. The extremes resulting from abrupt changes in ozone (day to day changes greater than 20 percent) have not been considered. The ordered extremes (maxima in ascending way, minima in descending way) have been fitted to one of three forms of the Fisher-Tippet extreme value distribution by the nonlinear least square method (Levenberg-Marguard method). We have found that the ordered extremes from a majority of Dobson stations lie close to Fisher-Tippet type III. The extreme value analysis of the composite annual extremes (combined from averages of the annual extremes selected at individual stations) has shown that the composite maxima are fitted by the Fisher-Tippet type III and the composite minima by the Fisher-Tippet type I. The difference between the Fisher-Tippet types of the composite extremes seems to be related to the ozone downward trend. Extreme value prognoses for the period 1964-2014 (derived from the data taken at: all analyzed stations, the North American, and the European stations) have revealed that the prognostic extremes are close to the largest annual extremes in the period 1964-1988 and there are only small regional differences in the prognoses.

Assessment of Coastal and Urban Flooding Hazards Applying Extreme Value Analysis and Multivariate Statistical Techniques: A Case Study in Elwood, Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guimarães Nobre, Gabriela; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten; Rosbjerg, Dan; Madsen, Henrik

2016-04-01

Traditionally, flood risk assessment studies have been carried out from a univariate frequency analysis perspective. However, statistical dependence between hydrological variables, such as extreme rainfall and extreme sea surge, is plausible to exist, since both variables to some extent are driven by common meteorological conditions. Aiming to overcome this limitation, multivariate statistical techniques has the potential to combine different sources of flooding in the investigation. The aim of this study was to apply a range of statistical methodologies for analyzing combined extreme hydrological variables that can lead to coastal and urban flooding. The study area is the Elwood Catchment, which is a highly urbanized catchment located in the city of Port Phillip, Melbourne, Australia. The first part of the investigation dealt with the marginal extreme value distributions. Two approaches to extract extreme value series were applied (Annual Maximum and Partial Duration Series), and different probability distribution functions were fit to the observed sample. Results obtained by using the Generalized Pareto distribution demonstrate the ability of the Pareto family to model the extreme events. Advancing into multivariate extreme value analysis, first an investigation regarding the asymptotic properties of extremal dependence was carried out. As a weak positive asymptotic dependence between the bivariate extreme pairs was found, the Conditional method proposed by Heffernan and Tawn (2004) was chosen. This approach is suitable to model bivariate extreme values, which are relatively unlikely to occur together. The results show that the probability of an extreme sea surge occurring during a one-hour intensity extreme precipitation event (or vice versa) can be twice as great as what would occur when assuming independent events. Therefore, presuming independence between these two variables would result in severe underestimation of the flooding risk in the study area.

Extreme events in total ozone over Arosa - Part 2: Fingerprints of atmospheric dynamics and chemistry and effects on mean values and long-term changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rieder, H. E.; Staehelin, J.; Maeder, J. A.; Peter, T.; Ribatet, M.; Davison, A. C.; Stübi, R.; Weihs, P.; Holawe, F.

2010-10-01

In this study the frequency of days with extreme low (termed ELOs) and extreme high (termed EHOs) total ozone values and their influence on mean values and trends are analyzed for the world's longest total ozone record (Arosa, Switzerland). The results show (i) an increase in ELOs and (ii) a decrease in EHOs during the last decades and (iii) that the overall trend during the 1970s and 1980s in total ozone is strongly dominated by changes in these extreme events. After removing the extremes, the time series shows a strongly reduced trend (reduction by a factor of 2.5 for trend in annual mean). Excursions in the frequency of extreme events reveal "fingerprints" of dynamical factors such as ENSO or NAO, and chemical factors, such as cold Arctic vortex ozone losses, as well as major volcanic eruptions of the 20th century (Gunung Agung, El Chichón, Mt. Pinatubo). Furthermore, atmospheric loading of ozone depleting substances leads to a continuous modification of column ozone in the Northern Hemisphere also with respect to extreme values (partly again in connection with polar vortex contributions). Application of extreme value theory allows the identification of many more such "fingerprints" than conventional time series analysis of annual and seasonal mean values. The analysis shows in particular the strong influence of dynamics, revealing that even moderate ENSO and NAO events have a discernible effect on total ozone. Overall the approach to extremal modelling provides new information on time series properties, variability, trends and the influence of dynamics and chemistry, complementing earlier analyses focusing only on monthly (or annual) mean values.

Extreme events in total ozone over Arosa - Part 2: Fingerprints of atmospheric dynamics and chemistry and effects on mean values and long-term changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rieder, H. E.; Staehelin, J.; Maeder, J. A.; Peter, T.; Ribatet, M.; Davison, A. C.; Stübi, R.; Weihs, P.; Holawe, F.

2010-05-01

In this study the frequency of days with extreme low (termed ELOs) and extreme high (termed EHOs) total ozone values and their influence on mean values and trends are analyzed for the world's longest total ozone record (Arosa, Switzerland). The results show (a) an increase in ELOs and (b) a decrease in EHOs during the last decades and (c) that the overall trend during the 1970s and 1980s in total ozone is strongly dominated by changes in these extreme events. After removing the extremes, the time series shows a strongly reduced trend (reduction by a factor of 2.5 for trend in annual mean). Excursions in the frequency of extreme events reveal "fingerprints" of dynamical factors such as ENSO or NAO, and chemical factors, such as cold Arctic vortex ozone losses, as well as major volcanic eruptions of the 20th century (Gunung Agung, El Chichón, Mt. Pinatubo). Furthermore, atmospheric loading of ozone depleting substances leads to a continuous modification of column ozone in the Northern Hemisphere also with respect to extreme values (partly again in connection with polar vortex contributions). Application of extreme value theory allows the identification of many more such "fingerprints" than conventional time series analysis of annual and seasonal mean values. The analysis shows in particular the strong influence of dynamics, revealing that even moderate ENSO and NAO events have a discernible effect on total ozone. Overall the approach to extremal modelling provides new information on time series properties, variability, trends and the influence of dynamics and chemistry, complementing earlier analyses focusing only on monthly (or annual) mean values.

Evaluating evaporation from field crops using airborne radiometry and ground-based meteorological data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jackson, R. D.; Moran, M.S.; Gay, L.W.; Raymond, L.H.

1987-01-01

Airborne measurements of reflected solar and emitted thermal radiation were combined with ground-based measurements of incoming solar radiation, air temperature, windspeed, and vapor pressure to calculate instantaneous evaporation (LE) rates using a form of the Penman equation. Estimates of evaporation over cotton, wheat, and alfalfa fields were obtained on 5 days during a one-year period. A Bowen ratio apparatus, employed simultaneously, provided ground-based measurements of evaporation. Comparison of the airborne and ground techniques showed good agreement, with the greatest difference being about 12% for the instantaneous values. Estimates of daily (24 h) evaporation were made from the instantaneous data. On three of the five days, the difference between the two techniques was less than 8%, with the greatest difference being 25%. The results demonstrate that airborne remote sensing techniques can be used to obtain spatially distributed values of evaporation over agricultural fields. ?? 1987 Springer-Verlag.

Rainfall extremes from TRMM data and the Metastatistical Extreme Value Distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zorzetto, Enrico; Marani, Marco

2017-04-01

A reliable quantification of the probability of weather extremes occurrence is essential for designing resilient water infrastructures and hazard mitigation measures. However, it is increasingly clear that the presence of inter-annual climatic fluctuations determines a substantial long-term variability in the frequency of occurrence of extreme events. This circumstance questions the foundation of the traditional extreme value theory, hinged on stationary Poisson processes or on asymptotic assumptions to derive the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution. We illustrate here, with application to daily rainfall, a new approach to extreme value analysis, the Metastatistical Extreme Value Distribution (MEVD). The MEVD relaxes the above assumptions and is based on the whole distribution of daily rainfall events, thus allowing optimal use of all available observations. Using a global dataset of rain gauge observations, we show that the MEVD significantly outperforms the Generalized Extreme Value distribution, particularly for long average recurrence intervals and when small samples are available. The latter property suggests MEVD to be particularly suited for applications to satellite rainfall estimates, which only cover two decades, thus making extreme value estimation extremely challenging. Here we apply MEVD to the TRMM TMPA 3B42 product, an 18-year dataset of remotely-sensed daily rainfall providing a quasi-global coverage. Our analyses yield a global scale mapping of daily rainfall extremes and of their distributional tail properties, bridging the existing large gaps in ground-based networks. Finally, we illustrate how our global-scale analysis can provide insight into how properties of local rainfall regimes affect tail estimation uncertainty when using the GEV or MEVD approach. We find a dependence of the estimation uncertainty, for both the GEV- and MEV-based approaches, on the average annual number and on the inter-annual variability of rainy days. In particular, estimation uncertainty decreases 1) as the mean annual number of wet days increases, and 2) as the variability in the number of rainy days, expressed by its coefficient of variation, decreases. We tentatively explain this behavior in terms of the assumptions underlying the two approaches.

Nonstationary Extreme Value Analysis in a Changing Climate: A Software Package

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheng, L.; AghaKouchak, A.; Gilleland, E.

2013-12-01

Numerous studies show that climatic extremes have increased substantially in the second half of the 20th century. For this reason, analysis of extremes under a nonstationary assumption has received a great deal of attention. This paper presents a software package developed for estimation of return levels, return periods, and risks of climatic extremes in a changing climate. This MATLAB software package offers tools for analysis of climate extremes under both stationary and non-stationary assumptions. The Nonstationary Extreme Value Analysis (hereafter, NEVA) provides an efficient and generalized framework for analyzing extremes using Bayesian inference. NEVA estimates the extreme value parameters using a Differential Evolution Markov Chain (DE-MC) which utilizes the genetic algorithm Differential Evolution (DE) for global optimization over the real parameter space with the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach and has the advantage of simplicity, speed of calculation and convergence over conventional MCMC. NEVA also offers the confidence interval and uncertainty bounds of estimated return levels based on the sampled parameters. NEVA integrates extreme value design concepts, data analysis tools, optimization and visualization, explicitly designed to facilitate analysis extremes in geosciences. The generalized input and output files of this software package make it attractive for users from across different fields. Both stationary and nonstationary components of the package are validated for a number of case studies using empirical return levels. The results show that NEVA reliably describes extremes and their return levels.

Applied extreme-value statistics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kinnison, R.R.

1983-05-01

The statistical theory of extreme values is a well established part of theoretical statistics. Unfortunately, it is seldom part of applied statistics and is infrequently a part of statistical curricula except in advanced studies programs. This has resulted in the impression that it is difficult to understand and not of practical value. In recent environmental and pollution literature, several short articles have appeared with the purpose of documenting all that is necessary for the practical application of extreme value theory to field problems (for example, Roberts, 1979). These articles are so concise that only a statistician can recognise all themore » subtleties and assumptions necessary for the correct use of the material presented. The intent of this text is to expand upon several recent articles, and to provide the necessary statistical background so that the non-statistician scientist can recognize and extreme value problem when it occurs in his work, be confident in handling simple extreme value problems himself, and know when the problem is statistically beyond his capabilities and requires consultation.« less

Bivariate extreme value distributions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Elshamy, M.

1992-01-01

In certain engineering applications, such as those occurring in the analyses of ascent structural loads for the Space Transportation System (STS), some of the load variables have a lower bound of zero. Thus, the need for practical models of bivariate extreme value probability distribution functions with lower limits was identified. We discuss the Gumbel models and present practical forms of bivariate extreme probability distributions of Weibull and Frechet types with two parameters. Bivariate extreme value probability distribution functions can be expressed in terms of the marginal extremel distributions and a 'dependence' function subject to certain analytical conditions. Properties of such bivariate extreme distributions, sums and differences of paired extremals, as well as the corresponding forms of conditional distributions, are discussed. Practical estimation techniques are also given.

Transactions of the Army Conference on Applied Mathematics and Computing (7Th) Held in West Point, New York on 6-9 June 1989

DTIC Science & Technology

1990-02-01

34 Arch. &ax. Mech. Anal- 94, 1986, pp. 1-14. [15] J. L. Ericksen, "Twinning of crystals I," in MetastahjliM and ImpJtiy Posed Problenms, S. Antman et al...metastability of quartz," in Metastahili and Inmjr~ici~ Posed Praem, S. Antman et al. eds, Springer-Verlag, 1987, pp. 147- 176. [30] R. D. James and D...and I mplete1y Posed Prnhlemi, S. Antman et al eds, Springer-Verlag, 1987, pp. 135-146. 301 (35] D. Kinderlehrer and G. Vergara-Caffarelli, "The

Future Projection of Summer Extreme Precipitation from High Resolution Multi-RCMs over East Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Gayoung; Park, Changyong; Cha, Dong-Hyun; Lee, Dong-Kyou; Suh, Myoung-Seok; Ahn, Joong-Bae; Min, Seung-Ki; Hong, Song-You; Kang, Hyun-Suk

2017-04-01

Recently, the frequency and intensity of natural hazards have been increasing due to human-induced climate change. Because most damages of natural hazards over East Asia have been related to extreme precipitation events, it is important to estimate future change in extreme precipitation characteristics caused by climate change. We investigate future changes in extremal values of summer precipitation simulated by five regional climate models participating in the CORDEX-East Asia project (i.e., HadGEM3-RA, RegCM4, MM5, WRF, and GRIMs) over East Asia. 100-year return value calculated from the generalized extreme value (GEV) parameters is analysed as an indicator of extreme intensity. In the future climate, the mean values as well as the extreme values of daily precipitation tend to increase over land region. The increase of 100-year return value can be significantly associated with the changes in the location (intensity) and scale (variability) GEV parameters for extreme precipitation. It is expected that the results of this study can be used as fruitful references when making the policy of disaster management. Acknowledgements The research was supported by the Ministry of Public Safety and Security of Korean government and Development program under grant MPSS-NH-2013-63 and the National Research Foundation of Korea Grant funded by the Ministry of Science, ICT and Future Planning of Korea (NRF-2016M3C4A7952637) for its support and assistant in completion of the study.

Extremely cold events and sudden air temperature drops during winter season in the Czech Republic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crhová, Lenka; Valeriánová, Anna; Holtanová, Eva; Müller, Miloslav; Kašpar, Marek; Stříž, Martin

2014-05-01

Today a great attention is turned to analysis of extreme weather events and frequency of their occurrence under changing climate. In most cases, these studies are focused on extremely warm events in summer season. However, extremely low values of air temperature during winter can have serious impacts on many sectors as well (e.g. power engineering, transportation, industry, agriculture, human health). Therefore, in present contribution we focus on extremely and abnormally cold air temperature events in winter season in the Czech Republic. Besides the seasonal extremes of minimum air temperature determined from station data, the standardized data with removed annual cycle are used as well. Distribution of extremely cold events over the season and the temporal evolution of frequency of occurrence during the period 1961-2010 are analyzed. Furthermore, the connection of cold events with extreme sudden temperature drops is studied. The extreme air temperature events and events of extreme sudden temperature drop are assessed using the Weather Extremity Index, which evaluates the extremity (based on return periods) and spatial extent of the meteorological extreme event of interest. The generalized extreme value distribution parameters are used to estimate return periods of daily temperature values. The work has been supported by the grant P209/11/1990 funded by the Czech Science Foundation.

Spatiotemporal variability of extreme temperature frequency and amplitude in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Yuanjie; Gao, Zhiqiu; Pan, Zaitao; Li, Dan; Huang, Xinhui

2017-03-01

Temperature extremes in China are examined based on daily maximum and minimum temperatures from station observations and multiple global climate models. The magnitude and frequency of extremes are expressed in terms of return values and periods, respectively, estimated by the fitted Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution of annual extreme temperatures. The observations suggest that changes in temperature extremes considerably exceed changes in the respective climatological means during the past five decades, with greater amplitude of increases in cold extremes than in warm extremes. The frequency of warm (cold) extremes increases (decreases) over most areas, with an increasingly faster rate as the extremity level rises. Changes in warm extremes are more dependent on the varying shape of GEV distribution than the location shift, whereas changes in cold extremes are more closely associated with the location shift. The models simulate the overall pattern of temperature extremes during 1961-1981 reasonably well in China, but they show a smaller asymmetry between changes in warm and cold extremes primarily due to their underestimation of increases in cold extremes especially over southern China. Projections from a high emission scenario show the multi-model median change in warm and cold extremes by 2040 relative to 1971 will be 2.6 °C and 2.8 °C, respectively, with the strongest changes in cold extremes shifting southward. By 2040, warm extremes at the 1971 20-year return values would occur about every three years, while the 1971 cold extremes would occur once in > 500 years.

Identifying and Clarifying Organizational Values.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Seevers, Brenda S.

2000-01-01

Of the 14 organizational values ranked by a majority of 146 New Mexico Cooperative Extension educators as extremely valued, 9 were extremely evident in organizational policies and procedures. A values audit such as this forms an important initial step in strategic planning. (SK)

Applications of Extreme Value Theory in Public Health.

PubMed

Thomas, Maud; Lemaitre, Magali; Wilson, Mark L; Viboud, Cécile; Yordanov, Youri; Wackernagel, Hans; Carrat, Fabrice

2016-01-01

We present how Extreme Value Theory (EVT) can be used in public health to predict future extreme events. We applied EVT to weekly rates of Pneumonia and Influenza (P&I) deaths over 1979-2011. We further explored the daily number of emergency department visits in a network of 37 hospitals over 2004-2014. Maxima of grouped consecutive observations were fitted to a generalized extreme value distribution. The distribution was used to estimate the probability of extreme values in specified time periods. An annual P&I death rate of 12 per 100,000 (the highest maximum observed) should be exceeded once over the next 30 years and each year, there should be a 3% risk that the P&I death rate will exceed this value. Over the past 10 years, the observed maximum increase in the daily number of visits from the same weekday between two consecutive weeks was 1133. We estimated at 0.37% the probability of exceeding a daily increase of 1000 on each month. The EVT method can be applied to various topics in epidemiology thus contributing to public health planning for extreme events.

Examining personal values in extreme environment contexts: Revisiting the question of generalizability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, N.; Sandal, G. M.; Leon, G. R.; Kjærgaard, A.

2017-08-01

Land-based extreme environments (e.g. polar expeditions, Antarctic research stations, confinement chambers) have often been used as analog settings for spaceflight. These settings share similarities with the conditions experienced during space missions, including confinement, isolation and limited possibilities for evacuation. To determine the utility of analog settings for understanding human spaceflight, researchers have examined the extent to which the individual characteristics (e.g., personality) of people operating in extreme environments can be generalized across contexts (Sandal, 2000) [1]. Building on previous work, and utilising new and pre-existing data, the present study examined the extent to which personal value motives could be generalized across extreme environments. Four populations were assessed; mountaineers (N =59), military personnel (N = 25), Antarctic over-winterers (N = 21) and Mars simulation participants (N = 12). All participants completed the Portrait Values Questionnaire (PVQ; Schwartz; 2) capturing information on 10 personal values. Rank scores suggest that all groups identified Self-direction, Stimulation, Universalism and Benevolence as important values and acknowledged Power and Tradition as being low priorities. Results from difference testing suggest the extreme environment groups were most comparable on Self-direction, Stimulation, Benevolence, Tradition and Security. There were significant between-group differences on five of the ten values. Overall, findings pinpointed specific values that may be important for functioning in challenging environments. However, the differences that emerged on certain values highlight the importance of considering the specific population when comparing results across extreme settings. We recommend that further research examine the impact of personal value motives on indicators of adjustment, group working, and performance. Information from such studies could then be used to aid selection and training processes for personnel operating in extreme settings, and in space.

Extreme event statistics in a drifting Markov chain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kindermann, Farina; Hohmann, Michael; Lausch, Tobias; Mayer, Daniel; Schmidt, Felix; Widera, Artur

2017-07-01

We analyze extreme event statistics of experimentally realized Markov chains with various drifts. Our Markov chains are individual trajectories of a single atom diffusing in a one-dimensional periodic potential. Based on more than 500 individual atomic traces we verify the applicability of the Sparre Andersen theorem to our system despite the presence of a drift. We present detailed analysis of four different rare-event statistics for our system: the distributions of extreme values, of record values, of extreme value occurrence in the chain, and of the number of records in the chain. We observe that, for our data, the shape of the extreme event distributions is dominated by the underlying exponential distance distribution extracted from the atomic traces. Furthermore, we find that even small drifts influence the statistics of extreme events and record values, which is supported by numerical simulations, and we identify cases in which the drift can be determined without information about the underlying random variable distributions. Our results facilitate the use of extreme event statistics as a signal for small drifts in correlated trajectories.

Risk assessment of precipitation extremes in northern Xinjiang, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Jun; Pei, Ying; Zhang, Yanwei; Ge, Quansheng

2018-05-01

This study was conducted using daily precipitation records gathered at 37 meteorological stations in northern Xinjiang, China, from 1961 to 2010. We used the extreme value theory model, generalized extreme value (GEV) and generalized Pareto distribution (GPD), statistical distribution function to fit outputs of precipitation extremes with different return periods to estimate risks of precipitation extremes and diagnose aridity-humidity environmental variation and corresponding spatial patterns in northern Xinjiang. Spatiotemporal patterns of daily maximum precipitation showed that aridity-humidity conditions of northern Xinjiang could be well represented by the return periods of the precipitation data. Indices of daily maximum precipitation were effective in the prediction of floods in the study area. By analyzing future projections of daily maximum precipitation (2, 5, 10, 30, 50, and 100 years), we conclude that the flood risk will gradually increase in northern Xinjiang. GEV extreme value modeling yielded the best results, proving to be extremely valuable. Through example analysis for extreme precipitation models, the GEV statistical model was superior in terms of favorable analog extreme precipitation. The GPD model calculation results reflect annual precipitation. For most of the estimated sites' 2 and 5-year T for precipitation levels, GPD results were slightly greater than GEV results. The study found that extreme precipitation reaching a certain limit value level will cause a flood disaster. Therefore, predicting future extreme precipitation may aid warnings of flood disaster. A suitable policy concerning effective water resource management is thus urgently required.

The application of the statistical theory of extreme values to gust-load problems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Press, Harry

1950-01-01

An analysis is presented which indicates that the statistical theory of extreme values is applicable to the problems of predicting the frequency of encountering the larger gust loads and gust velocities for both specific test conditions as well as commercial transport operations. The extreme-value theory provides an analytic form for the distributions of maximum values of gust load and velocity. Methods of fitting the distribution are given along with a method of estimating the reliability of the predictions. The theory of extreme values is applied to available load data from commercial transport operations. The results indicate that the estimates of the frequency of encountering the larger loads are more consistent with the data and more reliable than those obtained in previous analyses. (author)

Extreme value statistics analysis of fracture strengths of a sintered silicon nitride failing from pores

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chao, Luen-Yuan; Shetty, Dinesh K.

1992-01-01

Statistical analysis and correlation between pore-size distribution and fracture strength distribution using the theory of extreme-value statistics is presented for a sintered silicon nitride. The pore-size distribution on a polished surface of this material was characterized, using an automatic optical image analyzer. The distribution measured on the two-dimensional plane surface was transformed to a population (volume) distribution, using the Schwartz-Saltykov diameter method. The population pore-size distribution and the distribution of the pore size at the fracture origin were correllated by extreme-value statistics. Fracture strength distribution was then predicted from the extreme-value pore-size distribution, usin a linear elastic fracture mechanics model of annular crack around pore and the fracture toughness of the ceramic. The predicted strength distribution was in good agreement with strength measurements in bending. In particular, the extreme-value statistics analysis explained the nonlinear trend in the linearized Weibull plot of measured strengths without postulating a lower-bound strength.

On alternative q-Weibull and q-extreme value distributions: Properties and applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Fode; Ng, Hon Keung Tony; Shi, Yimin

2018-01-01

Tsallis statistics and Tsallis distributions have been attracting a significant amount of research work in recent years. Importantly, the Tsallis statistics, q-distributions have been applied in different disciplines. Yet, a relationship between some existing q-Weibull distributions and q-extreme value distributions that is parallel to the well-established relationship between the conventional Weibull and extreme value distributions through a logarithmic transformation has not be established. In this paper, we proposed an alternative q-Weibull distribution that leads to a q-extreme value distribution via the q-logarithm transformation. Some important properties of the proposed q-Weibull and q-extreme value distributions are studied. Maximum likelihood and least squares estimation methods are used to estimate the parameters of q-Weibull distribution and their performances are investigated through a Monte Carlo simulation study. The methodologies and the usefulness of the proposed distributions are illustrated by fitting the 2014 traffic fatalities data from The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration.

Extreme values and the level-crossing problem: An application to the Feller process

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Masoliver, Jaume

2014-04-01

We review the question of the extreme values attained by a random process. We relate it to level crossings to one boundary (first-passage problems) as well as to two boundaries (escape problems). The extremes studied are the maximum, the minimum, the maximum absolute value, and the range or span. We specialize in diffusion processes and present detailed results for the Wiener and Feller processes.

A review of statistical methods to analyze extreme precipitation and temperature events in the Mediterranean region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lazoglou, Georgia; Anagnostopoulou, Christina; Tolika, Konstantia; Kolyva-Machera, Fotini

2018-04-01

The increasing trend of the intensity and frequency of temperature and precipitation extremes during the past decades has substantial environmental and socioeconomic impacts. Thus, the objective of the present study is the comparison of several statistical methods of the extreme value theory (EVT) in order to identify which is the most appropriate to analyze the behavior of the extreme precipitation, and high and low temperature events, in the Mediterranean region. The extremes choice was made using both the block maxima and the peaks over threshold (POT) technique and as a consequence both the generalized extreme value (GEV) and generalized Pareto distributions (GPDs) were used to fit them. The results were compared, in order to select the most appropriate distribution for extremes characterization. Moreover, this study evaluates the maximum likelihood estimation, the L-moments and the Bayesian method, based on both graphical and statistical goodness-of-fit tests. It was revealed that the GPD can characterize accurately both precipitation and temperature extreme events. Additionally, GEV distribution with the Bayesian method is proven to be appropriate especially for the greatest values of extremes. Another important objective of this investigation was the estimation of the precipitation and temperature return levels for three return periods (50, 100, and 150 years) classifying the data into groups with similar characteristics. Finally, the return level values were estimated with both GEV and GPD and with the three different estimation methods, revealing that the selected method can affect the return level values for both the parameter of precipitation and temperature.

Numerical modeling of macrodispersion in heterogeneous media: a comparison of multi-Gaussian and non-multi-Gaussian models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wen, Xian-Huan; Gómez-Hernández, J. Jaime

1998-03-01

The macrodispersion of an inert solute in a 2-D heterogeneous porous media is estimated numerically in a series of fields of varying heterogeneity. Four different random function (RF) models are used to model log-transmissivity (ln T) spatial variability, and for each of these models, ln T variance is varied from 0.1 to 2.0. The four RF models share the same univariate Gaussian histogram and the same isotropic covariance, but differ from one another in terms of the spatial connectivity patterns at extreme transmissivity values. More specifically, model A is a multivariate Gaussian model for which, by definition, extreme values (both high and low) are spatially uncorrelated. The other three models are non-multi-Gaussian: model B with high connectivity of high extreme values, model C with high connectivity of low extreme values, and model D with high connectivities of both high and low extreme values. Residence time distributions (RTDs) and macrodispersivities (longitudinal and transverse) are computed on ln T fields corresponding to the different RF models, for two different flow directions and at several scales. They are compared with each other, as well as with predicted values based on first-order analytical results. Numerically derived RTDs and macrodispersivities for the multi-Gaussian model are in good agreement with analytically derived values using first-order theories for log-transmissivity variance up to 2.0. The results from the non-multi-Gaussian models differ from each other and deviate largely from the multi-Gaussian results even when ln T variance is small. RTDs in non-multi-Gaussian realizations with high connectivity at high extreme values display earlier breakthrough than in multi-Gaussian realizations, whereas later breakthrough and longer tails are observed for RTDs from non-multi-Gaussian realizations with high connectivity at low extreme values. Longitudinal macrodispersivities in the non-multi-Gaussian realizations are, in general, larger than in the multi-Gaussian ones, while transverse macrodispersivities in the non-multi-Gaussian realizations can be larger or smaller than in the multi-Gaussian ones depending on the type of connectivity at extreme values. Comparing the numerical results for different flow directions, it is confirmed that macrodispersivities in multi-Gaussian realizations with isotropic spatial correlation are not flow direction-dependent. Macrodispersivities in the non-multi-Gaussian realizations, however, are flow direction-dependent although the covariance of ln T is isotropic (the same for all four models). It is important to account for high connectivities at extreme transmissivity values, a likely situation in some geological formations. Some of the discrepancies between first-order-based analytical results and field-scale tracer test data may be due to the existence of highly connected paths of extreme conductivity values.

A Fiducial Approach to Extremes and Multiple Comparisons

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wandler, Damian V.

2010-01-01

Generalized fiducial inference is a powerful tool for many difficult problems. Based on an extension of R. A. Fisher's work, we used generalized fiducial inference for two extreme value problems and a multiple comparison procedure. The first extreme value problem is dealing with the generalized Pareto distribution. The generalized Pareto…

Controls on groundwater flow in the Bengal Basin of India and Bangladesh: Regional modeling analysis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Michael, H.A.; Voss, C.I.

2009-01-01

Groundwater for domestic and irrigation purposes is produced primarily from shallow parts of the Bengal Basin aquifer system (India and Bangladesh), which contains high concentrations of dissolved arsenic (exceeding worldwide drinking water standards), though deeper groundwater is generally low in arsenic. An essential first step for determining sustainable management of the deep groundwater resource is identification of hydrogeologic controls on flow and quantification of basin-scale groundwater flow patterns. Results from groundwater modeling, in which the Bengal Basin aquifer system is represented as a single aquifer with higher horizontal than vertical hydraulic conductivity, indicate that this anisotropy is the primary hydrogeologic control on the natural flowpath lengths. Despite extremely low hydraulic gradients due to minimal topographic relief, anisotropy implies large-scale (tens to hundreds of kilometers) flow at depth. Other hydrogeologic factors, including lateral and vertical changes in hydraulic conductivity, have minor effects on overall flow patterns. However, because natural hydraulic gradients are low, the impact of pumping on groundwater flow is overwhelming; modeling indicates that pumping has substantially changed the shallow groundwater budget and flowpaths from predevelopment conditions. ?? Springer-Verlag 2009.

An interlaboratory study to test instrument performance of hydrogen dual-inlet isotope-ratio mass spectrometers

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brand, Willi A.; Coplen, T.B.

2001-01-01

An interlaboratory comparison of forty isotope-ratio mass spectrometers of different ages from several vendors has been performed to test 2H/1H performance with hydrogen gases of three different isotopic compositions. The isotope-ratio results (unsufficiently corrected for H3+ contribution to the m/z = 3 collector, uncorrected for valve leakage in the change-over valves, etc.) expressed relative to one of these three gases covered a wide range of values: -630??? to -790??? for the second gas and -368??? to -462??? for the third gas. After normalizing the isotopic abundances of these test gases (linearly adjusting the ?? values so that the gases with the lowest and highest 2H content were identical for all laboratories), the standard deviation of the 40 measurements of the intermediate gas was a remarkably low 0.85???. It is concluded that the use of scaling factors is mandatory for providing accurate internationally comparable isotope-abundance values. Linear scaling for the isotope-ratio scales of gaseous hydrogen mass spectrometers is completely adequate. ?? Springer-Verlag 2001.

Human dignity in concept and practice

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mattson, D.J.; Clark, S.G.

2011-01-01

Dignity seems to be something that virtually all people want. It is a seminal expression of the human experience that gains authority through the convergent demands of people worldwide. Even so, the human dignity concept is in unhelpful disarray. Dignity is variously viewed as an antecedent, a consequence, a value, a principle, and an experience, from philosophical, legal, pragmatic, psychological, behavioral, and cultural perspectives. We ask which if any of these human dignity concepts will likely serve our global common interests best, as both common ground and policy diagnostic? We examine four broad themes: dignity as (1) a metaphysical justification for human rights and duties, (2) virtuous comportment or behavior, (3) a perspective of "other," and (4) a subjective experience of the individual, contingent on a broad and equitable sharing of values. We recommend viewing dignity as a commonwealth of individually assessed well-being, shaped by relationships with others, affected by the physical world, and framed in terms of values. Viewed this way, the idea of dignity accommodates the priorities of both individualistic and communitarian cultures. Conceiving of human dignity as a commonwealth of subjectively experienced value production and enjoyment has many practical policy implications. ?? 2011 Springer Science+Business Media, LLC (outside the USA).

Seasonal and Non-Seasonal Generalized Pareto Distribution to Estimate Extreme Significant Wave Height in The Banda Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nursamsiah; Nugroho Sugianto, Denny; Suprijanto, Jusup; Munasik; Yulianto, Bambang

2018-02-01

The information of extreme wave height return level was required for maritime planning and management. The recommendation methods in analyzing extreme wave were better distributed by Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD). Seasonal variation was often considered in the extreme wave model. This research aims to identify the best model of GPD by considering a seasonal variation of the extreme wave. By using percentile 95 % as the threshold of extreme significant wave height, the seasonal GPD and non-seasonal GPD fitted. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov test was applied to identify the goodness of fit of the GPD model. The return value from seasonal and non-seasonal GPD was compared with the definition of return value as criteria. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov test result shows that GPD fits data very well both seasonal and non-seasonal model. The seasonal return value gives better information about the wave height characteristics.

Contrasting sensitivities to fluoride toxicity between juveniles and adults of the aquatic snail Potamopyrgus antipodarum (Hydrobiidae, Mollusca).

PubMed

Aguirre-Sierra, Aránzazu; Alonso, Alvaro; Camargo, Julio A

2011-05-01

In contrast to aquatic vertebrates, there is scarce available information on the contrasting tolerance to fluoride of different life stages and/or sizes of aquatic invertebrates. The purpose of this study was to assess the likely differences in sensitivity between juveniles and adults of the aquatic snail Potamopyrgus antipodarum (Hydrobiidae, Mollusca) to short-term (4 days) toxicity of fluoride ion (F(-)). LC50 and EC50 values for juveniles were significantly lower than those for adults at 24, 48, 72 and 96 h. Based on our results, the use of fluoride data of bioassays with juveniles should provide more protective water quality criteria than data from adult stage. © Springer Science+Business Media, LLC 2011

Neutron scattering investigation of a macroscopic single crystal of a lyotropic Lα phase

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goecking, K. D.; Monkenbusch, M.

1998-07-01

Water-rich lamellar samples of the quaternary microemulsion SDS-pentanol-water-dodecane have been prepared in form of 1 mm×10 mm×20 mm macroscopic mono domains. The shape is given by the quartz cuvette containing the sample, the layer planes are parallel to the cuvette walls. Diffraction patterns and "rocking curves" have been obtained by neutron diffraction using a triple-axis spectrometer. Three "pseudo-Bragg peaks" have been observed, their (relative) intensities yield a new experimental access to estimate the product of the elastic constants η-2 propto Bκ resulting in a lower value than obtained from synchrotron investigation using peak shape fitting (Roux D. et al., Micelles, Membranes, Microemulsions and Monolayers (Springer, New York, Berlin) 1994).

High-temperature heat capacity of Co3O4 spinel: thermally induced spin unpairing transition

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mocala, K.; Navrotsky, A.; Sherman, David M.

1992-01-01

A strong anomaly was found in the heat capacity of Co3O4 between 1000 K and the decomposition temperature. This anomaly is not related to the decomposition of Co3O4 to CoO. The measured entropy of transition, ??S=46??4 J mol-1 K-1 of Co3O4, supports the interpretation that this anomaly reflects a spin unpairing transition in octahedrally coordinated Co3+ cations. Experimental values of heat capacity, heat content and entropy of Co3O4 in the high temperature region are provided. The enthalpy of the spin unpairing transition is 53??4 kJ mol-1 of Co3O4. ?? 1992 Springer-Verlag.

Nonparametric functional data estimation applied to ozone data: prediction and extreme value analysis.

PubMed

Quintela-del-Río, Alejandro; Francisco-Fernández, Mario

2011-02-01

The study of extreme values and prediction of ozone data is an important topic of research when dealing with environmental problems. Classical extreme value theory is usually used in air-pollution studies. It consists in fitting a parametric generalised extreme value (GEV) distribution to a data set of extreme values, and using the estimated distribution to compute return levels and other quantities of interest. Here, we propose to estimate these values using nonparametric functional data methods. Functional data analysis is a relatively new statistical methodology that generally deals with data consisting of curves or multi-dimensional variables. In this paper, we use this technique, jointly with nonparametric curve estimation, to provide alternatives to the usual parametric statistical tools. The nonparametric estimators are applied to real samples of maximum ozone values obtained from several monitoring stations belonging to the Automatic Urban and Rural Network (AURN) in the UK. The results show that nonparametric estimators work satisfactorily, outperforming the behaviour of classical parametric estimators. Functional data analysis is also used to predict stratospheric ozone concentrations. We show an application, using the data set of mean monthly ozone concentrations in Arosa, Switzerland, and the results are compared with those obtained by classical time series (ARIMA) analysis. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Investigating NARCCAP Precipitation Extremes via Bivariate Extreme Value Theory (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weller, G. B.; Cooley, D. S.; Sain, S. R.; Bukovsky, M. S.; Mearns, L. O.

2013-12-01

We introduce methodology from statistical extreme value theory to examine the ability of reanalysis-drive regional climate models to simulate past daily precipitation extremes. Going beyond a comparison of summary statistics such as 20-year return values, we study whether the most extreme precipitation events produced by climate model simulations exhibit correspondence to the most extreme events seen in observational records. The extent of this correspondence is formulated via the statistical concept of tail dependence. We examine several case studies of extreme precipitation events simulated by the six models of the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) driven by NCEP reanalysis. It is found that the NARCCAP models generally reproduce daily winter precipitation extremes along the Pacific coast quite well; in contrast, simulation of past daily summer precipitation extremes in a central US region is poor. Some differences in the strength of extremal correspondence are seen in the central region between models which employ spectral nudging and those which do not. We demonstrate how these techniques may be used to draw a link between extreme precipitation events and large-scale atmospheric drivers, as well as to downscale extreme precipitation simulated by a future run of a regional climate model. Specifically, we examine potential future changes in the nature of extreme precipitation along the Pacific coast produced by the pineapple express (PE) phenomenon. A link between extreme precipitation events and a "PE Index" derived from North Pacific sea-surface pressure fields is found. This link is used to study PE-influenced extreme precipitation produced by a future-scenario climate model run.

Climate and its change over the Tibetan Plateau and its Surroundings in 1963-2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ding, J.; Cuo, L.

2017-12-01

Tibetan Plateau and its surroundings (TPS, 23°-43°N, 73°-106°E) lies in the southwest of China and includes Tibet Autonomous Region, Qinghai Province, southern Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, part of Gansu Province, western Sichuan Province, and northern Yunnan Province. The region is of strategic importance in water resources because it is the headwater of ten large rivers that support more than 16 billion population. In this study, we use daily temperature maximum and minimum, precipitation and wind speed in 1963-2015 obtained from Climate Data Center of China Meteorological Administration and Qinghai Meteorological Bureau to investigate extreme climate conditions and their changes over the TPS. The extreme events are selected based on annual extreme values and percentiles. Annual extreme value approach produces one value each year for all variables, which enables us to examine the magnitude of extreme events; whereas percentile approach selects extreme values by setting 95th percentile as thresholds for maximum temperature, precipitation and wind speed, and 5th percentile for minimum temperature. Percentile approach not only enables us to investigate the magnitude but also frequency of the extreme events. Also, Mann-Kendall trend and mutation analysis were applied to analyze the changes in mean and extreme conditions. The results will help us understand more about the extreme events during the past five decades on the TPS and will provide valuable information for the upcoming IPCC reports on climate change.

Spatiotemporal variation and statistical characteristic of extreme precipitation in the middle reaches of the Yellow River Basin during 1960-2013

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Yin; Xia, Jun; She, Dunxian

2018-01-01

In recent decades, extreme precipitation events have been a research hotspot worldwide. Based on 12 extreme precipitation indices, the spatiotemporal variation and statistical characteristic of precipitation extremes in the middle reaches of the Yellow River Basin (MRYRB) during 1960-2013 were investigated. The results showed that the values of most extreme precipitation indices (except consecutive dry days (CDD)) increased from the northwest to the southeast of the MRYRB, reflecting that the southeast was the wettest region in the study area. Temporally, the precipitation extremes presented a drying trend with less frequent precipitation events. Generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution was selected to fit the time series of all indices, and the quantiles values under the 50-year return period showed a similar spatial extent with the corresponding precipitation extreme indices during 1960-2013, indicating a higher risk of extreme precipitation in the southeast of the MRYRB. Furthermore, the changes in probability distribution functions of indices for the period of 1960-1986 and 1987-2013 revealed a drying tendency in our study area. Both El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) were proved to have a strong influence on precipitation extremes in the MRYRB. The results of this study are useful to master the change rule of local precipitation extremes, which will help to prevent natural hazards caused.

Extreme value analysis in biometrics.

PubMed

Hüsler, Jürg

2009-04-01

We review some approaches of extreme value analysis in the context of biometrical applications. The classical extreme value analysis is based on iid random variables. Two different general methods are applied, which will be discussed together with biometrical examples. Different estimation, testing, goodness-of-fit procedures for applications are discussed. Furthermore, some non-classical situations are considered where the data are possibly dependent, where a non-stationary behavior is observed in the data or where the observations are not univariate. A few open problems are also stated.

Effect of elevation on extreme precipitation of short durations: evidences of orographic signature on the parameters of Depth-Duration-Frequency curves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Avanzi, Francesco; De Michele, Carlo; Gabriele, Salvatore; Ghezzi, Antonio; Rosso, Renzo

2015-04-01

Here, we show how atmospheric circulation and topography rule the variability of depth-duration-frequency (DDF) curves parameters, and we discuss how this variability has physical implications on the formation of extreme precipitations at high elevations. A DDF is a curve ruling the value of the maximum annual precipitation H as a function of duration D and the level of probability F. We consider around 1500 stations over the Italian territory, with at least 20 years of data of maximum annual precipitation depth at different durations. We estimated the DDF parameters at each location by using the asymptotic distribution of extreme values, i.e. the so-called Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution, and considering a statistical simple scale invariance hypothesis. Consequently, a DDF curve depends on five different parameters. A first set relates H with the duration (namely, the mean value of annual maximum precipitation depth for unit duration and the scaling exponent), while a second set links H to F (namely, a scale, position and shape parameter). The value of the shape parameter has consequences on the type of random variable (unbounded, upper or lower bounded). This extensive analysis shows that the variability of the mean value of annual maximum precipitation depth for unit duration obeys to the coupled effect of topography and modal direction of moisture flux during extreme events. Median values of this parameter decrease with elevation. We called this phenomenon "reverse orographic effect" on extreme precipitation of short durations, since it is in contrast with general knowledge about the orographic effect on mean precipitation. Moreover, the scaling exponent is mainly driven by topography alone (with increasing values of this parameter at increasing elevations). Therefore, the quantiles of H(D,F) at durations greater than unit turn to be more variable at high elevations than at low elevations. Additionally, the analysis of the variability of the shape parameter with elevation shows that extreme events at high elevations appear to be distributed according to an upper bounded probability distribution. These evidences could be a characteristic sign of the formation of extreme precipitation events at high elevations.

Extreme events in total ozone over Arosa - Part 1: Application of extreme value theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rieder, H. E.; Staehelin, J.; Maeder, J. A.; Peter, T.; Ribatet, M.; Davison, A. C.; Stübi, R.; Weihs, P.; Holawe, F.

2010-10-01

In this study ideas from extreme value theory are for the first time applied in the field of stratospheric ozone research, because statistical analysis showed that previously used concepts assuming a Gaussian distribution (e.g. fixed deviations from mean values) of total ozone data do not adequately address the structure of the extremes. We show that statistical extreme value methods are appropriate to identify ozone extremes and to describe the tails of the Arosa (Switzerland) total ozone time series. In order to accommodate the seasonal cycle in total ozone, a daily moving threshold was determined and used, with tools from extreme value theory, to analyse the frequency of days with extreme low (termed ELOs) and high (termed EHOs) total ozone at Arosa. The analysis shows that the Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) provides an appropriate model for the frequency distribution of total ozone above or below a mathematically well-defined threshold, thus providing a statistical description of ELOs and EHOs. The results show an increase in ELOs and a decrease in EHOs during the last decades. The fitted model represents the tails of the total ozone data set with high accuracy over the entire range (including absolute monthly minima and maxima), and enables a precise computation of the frequency distribution of ozone mini-holes (using constant thresholds). Analyzing the tails instead of a small fraction of days below constant thresholds provides deeper insight into the time series properties. Fingerprints of dynamical (e.g. ENSO, NAO) and chemical features (e.g. strong polar vortex ozone loss), and major volcanic eruptions, can be identified in the observed frequency of extreme events throughout the time series. Overall the new approach to analysis of extremes provides more information on time series properties and variability than previous approaches that use only monthly averages and/or mini-holes and mini-highs.

Extreme events in total ozone over Arosa - Part 1: Application of extreme value theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rieder, H. E.; Staehelin, J.; Maeder, J. A.; Peter, T.; Ribatet, M.; Davison, A. C.; Stübi, R.; Weihs, P.; Holawe, F.

2010-05-01

In this study ideas from extreme value theory are for the first time applied in the field of stratospheric ozone research, because statistical analysis showed that previously used concepts assuming a Gaussian distribution (e.g. fixed deviations from mean values) of total ozone data do not adequately address the structure of the extremes. We show that statistical extreme value methods are appropriate to identify ozone extremes and to describe the tails of the Arosa (Switzerland) total ozone time series. In order to accommodate the seasonal cycle in total ozone, a daily moving threshold was determined and used, with tools from extreme value theory, to analyse the frequency of days with extreme low (termed ELOs) and high (termed EHOs) total ozone at Arosa. The analysis shows that the Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) provides an appropriate model for the frequency distribution of total ozone above or below a mathematically well-defined threshold, thus providing a statistical description of ELOs and EHOs. The results show an increase in ELOs and a decrease in EHOs during the last decades. The fitted model represents the tails of the total ozone data set with high accuracy over the entire range (including absolute monthly minima and maxima), and enables a precise computation of the frequency distribution of ozone mini-holes (using constant thresholds). Analyzing the tails instead of a small fraction of days below constant thresholds provides deeper insight into the time series properties. Fingerprints of dynamical (e.g. ENSO, NAO) and chemical features (e.g. strong polar vortex ozone loss), and major volcanic eruptions, can be identified in the observed frequency of extreme events throughout the time series. Overall the new approach to analysis of extremes provides more information on time series properties and variability than previous approaches that use only monthly averages and/or mini-holes and mini-highs.

Comparison of the Argon Triple-Point Temperature in Small Cells of Different Construction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kołodziej, B.; Kowal, A.; Lipiński, L.; Manuszkiewicz, H.; Szmyrka-Grzebyk, A.

2017-06-01

The argon triple point (T_{90} = 83.8058 \\hbox {K}) is a fixed point of the International Temperature Scale of Preston-Thomas (Metrologia 27:3, 1990). Cells for realization of the fixed point have been manufactured by several European metrology institutes (Pavese in Metrologia 14:93, 1978; Pavese et al. in Temperature, part 1, American Institute of Physics, College Park, 2003; Hermier et al. in Temperature, part 1, American Institute of Physics, College Park, 2003; Pavese and Beciet in Modern gas-based temperature and pressure measurement, Springer, New York, 2013). The Institute of Low Temperature and Structure Research has in its disposal a few argon cells of various constructions used for calibration of capsule-type standard platinum resistance thermometers (CSPRT) that were produced within 40 years. These cells differ in terms of mechanical design and thermal properties, as well as source of gas filling the cell. This paper presents data on differences between temperature values obtained during the realization of the triple point of argon in these cells. For determination of the temperature, a heat-pulse method was applied (Pavese and Beciet in Modern gas-based temperature and pressure measurement, Springer, New York, 2013). The comparisons were performed using three CSPRTs. The temperatures difference was determined in relation to a reference function W(T)=R(T_{90})/R(271.16\\hbox {K}) in order to avoid an impact of CSPRT resistance drift between measurements in the argon cells. Melting curves and uncertainty budgets of the measurements are given in the paper. A construction of measuring apparatus is also presented in this paper.

Estimation of muscle torque in various combat sports.

PubMed

Pędzich, Wioletta; Mastalerz, Andrzej; Sadowski, Jerzy

2012-01-01

The purpose of the research was to compare muscle torque of elite combat groups. Twelve taekwondo WTF athletes, twelve taekwondo ITF athletes and nine boxers participated in the study. Measurements of muscle torques were done under static conditions on a special stand which belonged to the Department of Biomechanics. The sum of muscle torque of lower right and left extremities of relative values was significantly higher for taekwondo WTF athletes than for boxers (16%, p < 0.001 for right and 10%, p < 0.05 for left extremities) and taekwondo ITF (10%, p < 0.05 for right and 8% for left extremities). Taekwondo ITF athletes attained significantly higher absolute muscle torque values than boxers for elbow flexors (20%, p < 0.05 for right and 11% for left extremities) and extensors (14% for right and 18%, p < 0.05 for left extremities) and shoulder flexors (10% for right and 12%, p < 0.05 for left extremities) and extensors (11% for right and 1% for left extremities). Taekwondo WTF and taekwondo ITF athletes obtained significantly different relative values of muscle torque of the hip flexors (16%, p < 0.05) and extensors (11%, p < 0.05) of the right extremities.

Simulation of climate characteristics and extremes of the Volta Basin using CCLM and RCA regional climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Darko, Deborah; Adjei, Kwaku A.; Appiah-Adjei, Emmanuel K.; Odai, Samuel N.; Obuobie, Emmanuel; Asmah, Ruby

2018-06-01

The extent to which statistical bias-adjusted outputs of two regional climate models alter the projected change signals for the mean (and extreme) rainfall and temperature over the Volta Basin is evaluated. The outputs from two regional climate models in the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment for Africa (CORDEX-Africa) are bias adjusted using the quantile mapping technique. Annual maxima rainfall and temperature with their 10- and 20-year return values for the present (1981-2010) and future (2051-2080) climates are estimated using extreme value analyses. Moderate extremes are evaluated using extreme indices (viz. percentile-based, duration-based, and intensity-based). Bias adjustment of the original (bias-unadjusted) models improves the reproduction of mean rainfall and temperature for the present climate. However, the bias-adjusted models poorly reproduce the 10- and 20-year return values for rainfall and maximum temperature whereas the extreme indices are reproduced satisfactorily for the present climate. Consequently, projected changes in rainfall and temperature extremes were weak. The bias adjustment results in the reduction of the change signals for the mean rainfall while the mean temperature signals are rather magnified. The projected changes for the original mean climate and extremes are not conserved after bias adjustment with the exception of duration-based extreme indices.

Bernoulli-Langevin Wind Speed Model for Simulation of Storm Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fürstenau, Norbert; Mittendorf, Monika

2016-12-01

We present a simple nonlinear dynamics Langevin model for predicting the instationary wind speed profile during storm events typically accompanying extreme low-pressure situations. It is based on a second-degree Bernoulli equation with δ-correlated Gaussian noise and may complement stationary stochastic wind models. Transition between increasing and decreasing wind speed and (quasi) stationary normal wind and storm states are induced by the sign change of the controlling time-dependent rate parameter k(t). This approach corresponds to the simplified nonlinear laser dynamics for the incoherent to coherent transition of light emission that can be understood by a phase transition analogy within equilibrium thermodynamics [H. Haken, Synergetics, 3rd ed., Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg, New York 1983/2004.]. Evidence for the nonlinear dynamics two-state approach is generated by fitting of two historical wind speed profiles (low-pressure situations "Xaver" and "Christian", 2013) taken from Meteorological Terminal Air Report weather data, with a logistic approximation (i.e. constant rate coefficients k) to the solution of our dynamical model using a sum of sigmoid functions. The analytical solution of our dynamical two-state Bernoulli equation as obtained with a sinusoidal rate ansatz k(t) of period T (=storm duration) exhibits reasonable agreement with the logistic fit to the empirical data. Noise parameter estimates of speed fluctuations are derived from empirical fit residuals and by means of a stationary solution of the corresponding Fokker-Planck equation. Numerical simulations with the Bernoulli-Langevin equation demonstrate the potential for stochastic wind speed profile modeling and predictive filtering under extreme storm events that is suggested for applications in anticipative air traffic management.

Interactions among wildland fires in a long-established Sierra Nevada natural fire area

USGS Publications Warehouse

Collins, B.M.; Miller, J.D.; Thode, A.E.; Kelly, M.; van Wagtendonk, J.W.; Stephens, S.L.

2009-01-01

We investigate interactions between successive naturally occurring fires, and assess to what extent the environments in which fires burn influence these interactions. Using mapped fire perimeters and satellite-based estimates of post-fire effects (referred to hereafter as fire severity) for 19 fires burning relatively freely over a 31-year period, we demonstrate that fire as a landscape process can exhibit self-limiting characteristics in an upper elevation Sierra Nevada mixed conifer forest. We use the term 'self-limiting' to refer to recurring fire as a process over time (that is, fire regime) consuming fuel and ultimately constraining the spatial extent and lessening fire-induced effects of subsequent fires. When the amount of time between successive adjacent fires is under 9 years, and when fire weather is not extreme (burning index <34.9), the probability of the latter fire burning into the previous fire area is extremely low. Analysis of fire severity data by 10-year periods revealed a fair degree of stability in the proportion of area burned among fire severity classes (unchanged, low, moderate, high). This is in contrast to a recent study demonstrating increasing high-severity burning throughout the Sierra Nevada from 1984 to 2006, which suggests freely burning fires over time in upper elevation Sierra Nevada mixed conifer forests can regulate fire-induced effects across the landscape. This information can help managers better anticipate short- and long-term effects of allowing naturally ignited fires to burn, and ultimately, improve their ability to implement Wildland Fire Use programs in similar forest types. ?? 2008 Springer Science+Business Media, LLC.

Diet induced differences in carbon isotope fractionation between sirenians and terrestrial ungulates

USGS Publications Warehouse

Clementz, M.T.; Koch, P.L.; Beck, C.A.

2007-01-01

Carbon isotope differences (??13C) between bioapatite and diet, collagen and diet, and bioapatite and collagen were calculated for four species of sirenians, Dugong dugon (Mu??ller), Trichechus manatus (Linnaeus), Trichechus inunguis (Natterer), and the extinct Hydrodamalis gigas (Zimmerman). Bone and tooth samples were taken from archived materials collected from populations during the mid eighteenth century (H. gigas), between 1978 and 1984 (T. manatus, T. inunguis), and between 1997 and 1999 (D. dugon). Mean ??13C values were compared with those for terrestrial ungulates, carnivores, and six species of carnivorous marine mammals (cetaceans = 1; pinnipeds = 4; mustelids = 1). Significant differences in mean ??13C values among species for all tissue types were detected that separated species or populations foraging on freshwater plants or attached marine macroalgae (??13C values -4???; ??13Cbioapatite-diet ???11???). Likewise, ??13Cbioapatite-collagen values for freshwater and algal-foraging species (???7???) were greater than those for seagrass-foraging species (???5???). Variation in ??13C values calculated between tissues and between tissues and diet among species may relate to the nutritional composition of a species' diet and the extent and type of microbial fermentation that occurs during digestion of different types of plants. These results highlight the complications that can arise when making dietary interpretations without having first determined species-specific ??13Ctissue-diet values. ?? 2007 Springer-Verlag.

Space-time extreme wind waves: Observation and analysis of shapes and heights

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Benetazzo, Alvise; Barbariol, Francesco; Bergamasco, Filippo; Carniel, Sandro; Sclavo, Mauro

2016-04-01

We analyze here the temporal shape and the maximal height of extreme wind waves, which were obtained from an observational space-time sample of sea surface elevations during a mature and short-crested sea state (Benetazzo et al., 2015). Space-time wave data are processed to detect the largest waves of specific 3-D wave groups close to the apex of their development. First, maximal elevations of the groups are discussed within the framework of space-time (ST) extreme statistical models of random wave fields (Adler and Taylor, 2007; Benetazzo et al., 2015; Fedele, 2012). Results of ST models are also compared with observations and predictions of maxima based on time series of sea surface elevations. Second, the time profile of the extreme waves around the maximal crest height is analyzed and compared with the expectations of the linear (Boccotti, 1983) and second-order nonlinear extension (Arena, 2005) of the Quasi-Determinism (QD) theory. Main purpose is to verify to what extent, using the QD model results, one can estimate the shape and the crest-to-trough height of large waves in a random ST wave field. From the results presented, it emerges that, apart from the displacements around the crest apex, sea surface elevations of very high waves are greatly dispersed around a mean profile. Yet the QD model furnishes, on average, a fair prediction of the wave height of the maximal waves, especially when nonlinearities are taken into account. Moreover, the combination of ST and QD model predictions allow establishing, for a given sea condition, a framework for the representation of waves with very large crest heights. The results have also the potential to be implemented in a phase-averaged numerical wave model (see abstract EGU2016-14008 and Barbariol et al., 2015). - Adler, R.J., Taylor, J.E., 2007. Random fields and geometry. Springer, New York (USA), 448 pp. - Arena, F., 2005. On non-linear very large sea wave groups. Ocean Eng. 32, 1311-1331. - Barbariol, F., Alves, J.H.G.., Benetazzo, A., Bergamasco, F., Bertotti, L., Carniel, S., Cavaleri, L., Chao, Y.Y., Chawla, A., Ricchi, A., Sclavo, M., Tolman, H., 2015. Space-Time Wave Extremes in WAVEWATCH III: Implementation and Validation for the Adriatic Sea Case Study, in: 14th International Workshop on Wave Hindcasting and Forecasting. November, 8-13, Key West, Florida (USA). - Benetazzo, A., Barbariol, F., Bergamasco, F., Torsello, A., Carniel, S., Sclavo, M., 2015. Observation of extreme sea waves in a space-time ensemble. J. Phys. Oceanogr. 45, 2261-2275. - Boccotti, P., 1983. Some new results on statistical properties of wind waves. Appl. Ocean Res. 5, 134-140. - Fedele, F., 2012. Space-Time Extremes in Short-Crested Storm Seas. J. Phys. Oceanogr. 42, 1601-1615.

Global error estimation based on the tolerance proportionality for some adaptive Runge-Kutta codes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Calvo, M.; González-Pinto, S.; Montijano, J. I.

2008-09-01

Modern codes for the numerical solution of Initial Value Problems (IVPs) in ODEs are based in adaptive methods that, for a user supplied tolerance [delta], attempt to advance the integration selecting the size of each step so that some measure of the local error is [similar, equals][delta]. Although this policy does not ensure that the global errors are under the prescribed tolerance, after the early studies of Stetter [Considerations concerning a theory for ODE-solvers, in: R. Burlisch, R.D. Grigorieff, J. Schröder (Eds.), Numerical Treatment of Differential Equations, Proceedings of Oberwolfach, 1976, Lecture Notes in Mathematics, vol. 631, Springer, Berlin, 1978, pp. 188-200; Tolerance proportionality in ODE codes, in: R. März (Ed.), Proceedings of the Second Conference on Numerical Treatment of Ordinary Differential Equations, Humbold University, Berlin, 1980, pp. 109-123] and the extensions of Higham [Global error versus tolerance for explicit Runge-Kutta methods, IMA J. Numer. Anal. 11 (1991) 457-480; The tolerance proportionality of adaptive ODE solvers, J. Comput. Appl. Math. 45 (1993) 227-236; The reliability of standard local error control algorithms for initial value ordinary differential equations, in: Proceedings: The Quality of Numerical Software: Assessment and Enhancement, IFIP Series, Springer, Berlin, 1997], it has been proved that in many existing explicit Runge-Kutta codes the global errors behave asymptotically as some rational power of [delta]. This step-size policy, for a given IVP, determines at each grid point tn a new step-size hn+1=h(tn;[delta]) so that h(t;[delta]) is a continuous function of t. In this paper a study of the tolerance proportionality property under a discontinuous step-size policy that does not allow to change the size of the step if the step-size ratio between two consecutive steps is close to unity is carried out. This theory is applied to obtain global error estimations in a few problems that have been solved with the code Gauss2 [S. Gonzalez-Pinto, R. Rojas-Bello, Gauss2, a Fortran 90 code for second order initial value problems, ], based on an adaptive two stage Runge-Kutta-Gauss method with this discontinuous step-size policy.

Causes of Glacier Melt Extremes in the Alps Since 1949

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thibert, E.; Dkengne Sielenou, P.; Vionnet, V.; Eckert, N.; Vincent, C.

2018-01-01

Recent record-breaking glacier melt values are attributable to peculiar extreme events and long-term warming trends that shift averages upward. Analyzing one of the world's longest mass balance series with extreme value statistics, we show that detrending melt anomalies makes it possible to disentangle these effects, leading to a fairer evaluation of the return period of melt extreme values such as 2003, and to characterize them by a more realistic bounded behavior. Using surface energy balance simulations, we show that three independent drivers control melt: global radiation, latent heat, and the amount of snow at the beginning of the melting season. Extremes are governed by large deviations in global radiation combined with sensible heat. Long-term trends are driven by the lengthening of melt duration due to earlier and longer-lasting melting of ice along with melt intensification caused by trends in long-wave irradiance and latent heat due to higher air moisture.

Correlation dimension and phase space contraction via extreme value theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Faranda, Davide; Vaienti, Sandro

2018-04-01

We show how to obtain theoretical and numerical estimates of correlation dimension and phase space contraction by using the extreme value theory. The maxima of suitable observables sampled along the trajectory of a chaotic dynamical system converge asymptotically to classical extreme value laws where: (i) the inverse of the scale parameter gives the correlation dimension and (ii) the extremal index is associated with the rate of phase space contraction for backward iteration, which in dimension 1 and 2, is closely related to the positive Lyapunov exponent and in higher dimensions is related to the metric entropy. We call it the Dynamical Extremal Index. Numerical estimates are straightforward to obtain as they imply just a simple fit to a univariate distribution. Numerical tests range from low dimensional maps, to generalized Henon maps and climate data. The estimates of the indicators are particularly robust even with relatively short time series.

Mathematical aspects of assessing extreme events for the safety of nuclear plants

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Potempski, Slawomir; Borysiewicz, Mieczyslaw

2015-04-01

In the paper the review of mathematical methodologies applied for assessing low frequencies of rare natural events like earthquakes, tsunamis, hurricanes or tornadoes, floods (in particular flash floods and surge storms), lightning, solar flares, etc., will be given in the perspective of the safety assessment of nuclear plants. The statistical methods are usually based on the extreme value theory, which deals with the analysis of extreme deviation from the median (or the mean). In this respect application of various mathematical tools can be useful, like: the extreme value theorem of Fisher-Tippett-Gnedenko leading to possible choices of general extreme value distributions, or the Pickands-Balkema-de Haan theorem for tail fitting, or the methods related to large deviation theory. In the paper the most important stochastic distributions relevant for performing rare events statistical analysis will be presented. This concerns, for example, the analysis of the data with the annual extreme values (maxima - "Annual Maxima Series" or minima), or the peak values, exceeding given thresholds at some periods of interest ("Peak Over Threshold"), or the estimation of the size of exceedance. Despite of the fact that there is a lack of sufficient statistical data directly containing rare events, in some cases it is still possible to extract useful information from existing larger data sets. As an example one can consider some data sets available from the web sites for floods, earthquakes or generally natural hazards. Some aspects of such data sets will be also presented taking into account their usefulness for the practical assessment of risk for nuclear power plants coming from extreme weather conditions.

Report of the IAU/IAG Working Group on cartographic coordinates and rotational elements: 2006

USGS Publications Warehouse

Seidelmann, P.K.; Archinal, B.A.; A'Hearn, M.F.; Conrad, A.; Consolmagno, G.J.; Hestroffer, D.; Hilton, J.L.; Krasinsky, G.A.; Neumann, G.; Oberst, J.; Stooke, P.; Tedesco, E.F.; Tholen, D.J.; Thomas, P.C.; Williams, I.P.

2007-01-01

Every three years the IAU/IAG Working Group on Cartographic Coordinates and Rotational Elements revises tables giving the directions of the poles of rotation and the prime meridians of the planets, satellites, minor planets, and comets. This report introduces improved values for the pole and rotation rate of Pluto, Charon, and Phoebe, the pole of Jupiter, the sizes and shapes of Saturn satellites and Charon, and the poles, rotation rates, and sizes of some minor planets and comets. A high precision realization for the pole and rotation rate of the Moon is provided. The expression for the Sun's rotation has been changed to be consistent with the planets and to account for light travel time ?? 2007 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

Cadmium, copper, lead, and zinc determination in precipitation: A comparison of inductively coupled plasma atomic emission spectrometry and graphite furnace atomization atomic absorption spectrometry

USGS Publications Warehouse

Reddy, M.M.; Benefiel, M.A.; Claassen, H.C.

1987-01-01

Selected trace element analysis for cadmium, copper, lead, and zinc in precipitation samples by inductively coupled plasma atomic emission Spectrometry (ICP) and by atomic absorption spectrometry with graphite furnace atomization (AAGF) have been evaluated. This task was conducted in conjunction with a longterm study of precipitation chemistry at high altitude sites located in remote areas of the southwestern United States. Coefficients of variation and recovery values were determined for a standard reference water sample for all metals examined for both techniques. At concentration levels less than 10 micrograms per liter AAGF analyses exhibited better precision and accuracy than ICP. Both methods appear to offer the potential for cost-effective analysis of trace metal ions in precipitation. ?? 1987 Springer-Verlag.

A comparative assessment of statistical methods for extreme weather analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schlögl, Matthias; Laaha, Gregor

2017-04-01

Extreme weather exposure assessment is of major importance for scientists and practitioners alike. We compare different extreme value approaches and fitting methods with respect to their value for assessing extreme precipitation and temperature impacts. Based on an Austrian data set from 25 meteorological stations representing diverse meteorological conditions, we assess the added value of partial duration series over the standardly used annual maxima series in order to give recommendations for performing extreme value statistics of meteorological hazards. Results show the merits of the robust L-moment estimation, which yielded better results than maximum likelihood estimation in 62 % of all cases. At the same time, results question the general assumption of the threshold excess approach (employing partial duration series, PDS) being superior to the block maxima approach (employing annual maxima series, AMS) due to information gain. For low return periods (non-extreme events) the PDS approach tends to overestimate return levels as compared to the AMS approach, whereas an opposite behavior was found for high return levels (extreme events). In extreme cases, an inappropriate threshold was shown to lead to considerable biases that may outperform the possible gain of information from including additional extreme events by far. This effect was neither visible from the square-root criterion, nor from standardly used graphical diagnosis (mean residual life plot), but from a direct comparison of AMS and PDS in synoptic quantile plots. We therefore recommend performing AMS and PDS approaches simultaneously in order to select the best suited approach. This will make the analyses more robust, in cases where threshold selection and dependency introduces biases to the PDS approach, but also in cases where the AMS contains non-extreme events that may introduce similar biases. For assessing the performance of extreme events we recommend conditional performance measures that focus on rare events only in addition to standardly used unconditional indicators. The findings of this study are of relevance for a broad range of environmental variables, including meteorological and hydrological quantities.

Generalized extreme gust wind speeds distributions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cheng, E.; Yeung, C.

2002-01-01

Since summer 1996, the US wind engineers are using the extreme gust (or 3-s gust) as the basic wind speed to quantify the destruction of extreme winds. In order to better understand these destructive wind forces, it is important to know the appropriate representations of these extreme gust wind speeds. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to determine the most suitable extreme value distributions for the annual extreme gust wind speeds recorded in large selected areas. To achieve this objective, we are using the generalized Pareto distribution as the diagnostic tool for determining the types of extreme gust wind speed distributions. The three-parameter generalized extreme value distribution function is, thus, reduced to either Type I Gumbel, Type II Frechet or Type III reverse Weibull distribution function for the annual extreme gust wind speeds recorded at a specific site.With the considerations of the quality and homogeneity of gust wind data collected at more than 750 weather stations throughout the United States, annual extreme gust wind speeds at selected 143 stations in the contiguous United States were used in the study. ?? 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Development and certification of the new SRM 695 trace elements in multi-nutrient fertilizer

USGS Publications Warehouse

MacKey, E.A.; Cronise, M.P.; Fales, C.N.; Greenberg, R.R.; Leigh, S.D.; Long, S.E.; Marlow, A.F.; Murphy, K.E.; Oflaz, R.; Sieber, J.R.; Rearick, M.S.; Wood, L.J.; Yu, L.L.; Wilson, S.A.; Briggs, P.H.; Brown, Z.A.; Budahn, J.; Kane, P.F.; Hall, W.L.

2007-01-01

During the past seven years, several states within the US have enacted regulations that limit the amounts of selected non-nutritive elements in fertilizers. Internationally, several countries, including Japan, China, and Australia, and the European Union also limit the amount of selected elements in fertilizers. The elements of interest include As, Cd, Co, Cr, Cu, Hg, Mo, Ni, Pb, Se, and Zn. Fertilizer manufacturers and state regulatory authorities, faced with meeting and verifying these limits, need to develop analytical methods for determination of the elements of concern and to validate results obtained using these methods. Until now, there were no certified reference materials available with certified mass fraction values for all elements of interest in a blended, multi-nutrient fertilizer matrix. A new standard reference material (SRM) 695 trace elements in multi-nutrient fertilizer, has been developed to help meet these needs. SRM 695 has recently been issued with certified mass fraction values for seventeen elements, reference values for an additional five elements, and information values for two elements. The certificate of analysis includes an addendum listing percentage recovery for eight of these elements, determined using an acid-extraction inductively-coupled plasma optical-emission spectrometry (ICP-OES) method recently developed and tested by members of the Association of American Plant Food Control Officials. ?? Springer-Verlag 2007.

Examining global extreme sea level variations on the coast from in-situ and remote observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Menendez, Melisa; Benkler, Anna S.

2017-04-01

The estimation of extreme water level values on the coast is a requirement for a wide range of engineering and coastal management applications. In addition, climate variations of extreme sea levels on the coastal area result from a complex interacting of oceanic, atmospheric and terrestrial processes across a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. In this study, variations of extreme sea level return values are investigated from two available sources of information: in-situ tide-gauge records and satellite altimetry data. Long time series of sea level from tide-gauge records are the most valuable observations since they directly measure water level in a specific coastal location. They have however a number of sources of in-homogeneities that may affect the climate description of extremes when this data source is used. Among others, the presence of gaps, historical time in-homogeneities and jumps in the mean sea level signal are factors that can provide uncertainty in the characterization of the extreme sea level behaviour. Moreover, long records from tide-gauges are sparse and there are many coastal areas worldwide without in-situ available information. On the other hand, with the accumulating altimeter records of several satellite missions from the 1990s, approaching 25 recorded years at the time of writing, it is becoming possible the analysis of extreme sea level events from this data source. Aside the well-known issue of altimeter measurements very close to the coast (mainly due to corruption by land, wet troposphere path delay errors and local tide effects on the coastal area), there are other aspects that have to be considered when sea surface height values estimated from satellite are going to be used in a statistical extreme model, such as the use of a multi-mission product to get long observed periods and the selection of the maxima sample, since altimeter observations do not provide values uniform in time and space. Here, we have compared the extreme values of 'still water level' and 'non-tidal-residual' of in-situ records from the GESLA2 dataset (Woodworth et al. 2016) against the novel coastal altimetry datasets (Cipollini et al. 2016). Seasonal patterns, inter-annual variability and long-term trends are analyzed. Then, a time-dependent extreme model (Menendez et al. 2009) is applied to characterize extreme sea level return values and their variability on the coastal area around the world.

Estimating the Effect of Climate Change on Crop Yields and Farmland Values: The Importance of Extreme Temperatures

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This is a presentation titled Estimating the Effect of Climate Change on Crop Yields and Farmland Values: The Importance of Extreme Temperatures that was given for the National Center for Environmental Economics

Does Demand for Breast Augmentation Reflect National Financial Trends?

PubMed

Kearney, L; Dolan, R T; Clover, A J; Kelly, E J; O'Broin, E; O'Shaughnessy, M; O'Sullivan, S T

2017-04-01

Aesthetic plastic surgery is a consumer-driven industry, subject to influence by financial forces. A changing economic environment may thus impact on the demand for surgery. The aim of this study was to explore trends in demand for bilateral breast augmentation (BBA) in consecutively presenting patients over an 11-year period and to examine if a correlation exists between these trends and changes in Gross Domestic Product (GDP), a key economic indicator. This study revealed a correlation between annual number of breast augmentation procedures performed and GDP values (r 2  = 0.34, p value = 0.059). Additionally, predicted number of BBA procedures, based on predicted GDP growth in Ireland, strongly correlated with actual number of BBA performed (r 2  = 0.93, p value = 0.000001). Predicted GDP growth can potentially forecast future demand for BBA in our cohort allowing plastic surgeons to modify their practice accordingly. This journal requires that authors assign a level of evidence to each article. For a full description of these Evidence-Based Medicine ratings, please refer to the Table of Contents or the online Instructions to Authors www.springer.com/00266 .

The Cambridge Guide to the Solar System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lang, Kenneth R.

2003-10-01

The Cambridge Guide to the Solar System provides a comprehensive, funamental, and up-to-date description of the solar system. It is written in a concise, light and uniform style, without being unnecessarily weighted down with specialized materials or the variable writing of multiple authors. It is filled with vital facts and information for astronomers of all types and for anyone with a scientific interest in the Earth, our Moon, all the other planets and their satellites, and related topics such as asteroids, comets, meteorites and meteors. The language, style, ideas and profuse illustrations will attract the general reader as well as professionals. A thorough report for general readers, it includes much compact reference data. Metaphors, similes and analogies will be of immense help to the lay person or non-science student, and they add to the enjoyment of the material. Vignettes containing historical, literary and even artistic material make this book unusual and interesting, and enhance its scientific content. Kenneth Lang is professor of astronomy in the Physics and Astronomy Department at Tufts University. He is the author of several astrophysics books, including The Sun from Space (Springer Verlag, 2000), Astrophysical Formulae: Radiation, Gas Processes, and High Energy Physics (Springer Verlag, 1999), Sun, Earth and Sky (Copernicus Books, 1997), Astrophysical Data: Planets and Stars (Springer Verlag, 1993), and Wanderers in Space: Exploration and Discovery in the Solar System (Cambridge, 1991),

Extreme Statistics of Storm Surges in the Baltic Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kulikov, E. A.; Medvedev, I. P.

2017-11-01

Statistical analysis of the extreme values of the Baltic Sea level has been performed for a series of observations for 15-125 years at 13 tide gauge stations. It is shown that the empirical relation between value of extreme sea level rises or ebbs (caused by storm events) and its return period in the Baltic Sea can be well approximated by the Gumbel probability distribution. The maximum values of extreme floods/ebbs of the 100-year recurrence were observed in the Gulf of Finland and the Gulf of Riga. The two longest data series, observed in Stockholm and Vyborg over 125 years, have shown a significant deviation from the Gumbel distribution for the rarest events. Statistical analysis of the hourly sea level data series reveals some asymmetry in the variability of the Baltic Sea level. The probability of rises proved higher than that of ebbs. As for the magnitude of the 100-year recurrence surge, it considerably exceeded the magnitude of ebbs almost everywhere. This asymmetry effect can be attributed to the influence of low atmospheric pressure during storms. A statistical study of extreme values has also been applied to sea level series for Narva over the period of 1994-2000, which were simulated by the ROMS numerical model. Comparisons of the "simulated" and "observed" extreme sea level distributions show that the model reproduces quite satisfactorily extreme floods of "moderate" magnitude; however, it underestimates sea level changes for the most powerful storm surges.

Mercury exposure and effects on cavity-nesting birds from the Carson River, Nevada

USGS Publications Warehouse

Custer, Christine M.; Custer, T.W.; Hill, E.F.

2007-01-01

Mercury (Hg) concentrations were 15-40 times higher in the eggs and livers of tree swallows (Tachycineta bicolor) and house wrens (Troglodytes aedon) that nested along the Carson River at and below Dayton, Nevada than in the same species above the mining-impacted areas. Hg contamination was mainly the result of processing mills in the 1800s that used Hg to separate gold and silver from ore. The exposure pattern of tree swallows and house wrens along the Carson River was consistent with their trophic status (i.e., lower levels in liver tissue of aquatic insectivores than in piscivorous birds nesting nearby). Even though they are aquatic insectivores, tree swallows and house wrens were exposed to the same amount of Hg as piscivores in the Florida Everglades; this indicated the extreme level of Hg contamination in the Carson River. Only 70-74% of the eggs hatched. This was less than the nationwide average for these two species that generally hatch ???85% of eggs. Although the sample size was small, Hg might be impacting reproductive end points in cavity-nesting birds from the Carson River. Other trace elements were present at background concentrations. ?? 2006 Springer Science+Business Media, Inc.

Contrasting serpentinization processes in the eastern Central Alps

USGS Publications Warehouse

Burkhard, D.J.M.; O'Neil, J.R.

1988-01-01

Stable isotope compositions have been determined for serpentinites from between Davos (Arosa-Platta nappe, Switzerland) and the Valmalenco (Italy). ??D and ??18O values (-120 to -60 and 6-10???, respectively) in the Arosa-Platta nappe indicate that serpentinization took place on the continent at relatively low temperatures in the presence of limited amounts of metamorphic fluids that contained a component of meteoric water. One sample of chrysotile has a ??18O value of 13??? providing evidence of high W/R ratios and low formation temperature of lizardite-chrysotile in this area. In contrast, relatively high ??D values (-42 to -34???) and low ??18O values (4.4-7.4???) for serpentine in the eastern part of the Valmalenco suggest a serpentinization process that took place at moderate temperatures in fluids that were dominated by ocean water. The antigorite in the Valmalenco is the first reported example of continental antigorite with an ocean water signature. An amphibole sample from a metasomatically overprinted contact zone to metasediments (??D=-36???) indicates that the metasomatic event also took place in the presence of ocean water. Lower ??D values (-93 to -60???) of serpentines in the western part of the Valmalenco suggest a different alteration history possibly influenced by fluids associated with contact metamorphism. Low water/rock ratios during regional metamorphism (and metasomatism) have to be assumed for both regions. ?? 1988 Springer-Verlag.

Extreme value analysis of the time derivative of the horizontal magnetic field and computed electric field

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wintoft, Peter; Viljanen, Ari; Wik, Magnus

2016-05-01

High-frequency ( ≈ minutes) variability of ground magnetic fields is caused by ionospheric and magnetospheric processes driven by the changing solar wind. The varying magnetic fields induce electrical fields that cause currents to flow in man-made conductors like power grids and pipelines. Under extreme conditions the geomagnetically induced currents (GIC) may be harmful to the power grids. Increasing our understanding of the extreme events is thus important for solar-terrestrial science and space weather. In this work 1-min resolution of the time derivative of measured local magnetic fields (|dBh/dt|) and computed electrical fields (Eh), for locations in Europe, have been analysed with extreme value analysis (EVA). The EVA results in an estimate of the generalized extreme value probability distribution that is described by three parameters: location, width, and shape. The shape parameter controls the extreme behaviour. The stations cover geomagnetic latitudes from 40 to 70° N. All stations included in the study have contiguous coverage of 18 years or more with 1-min resolution data. As expected, the EVA shows that the higher latitude stations have higher probability of large |dBh/dt| and |Eh| compared to stations further south. However, the EVA also shows that the shape of the distribution changes with magnetic latitude. The high latitudes have distributions that fall off faster to zero than the low latitudes, and upward bounded distributions can not be ruled out. The transition occurs around 59-61° N magnetic latitudes. Thus, the EVA shows that the observed series north of ≈ 60° N have already measured values that are close to the expected maxima values, while stations south of ≈ ° N will measure larger values in the future.

Biometric Borders and Counterterrorism

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-12-01

105 Gildas Avoine, Kassem Kalach and Jean-Jaques Quisquater, "EPassport: Securing International Contacts...2006): 336. Ashbourn, Julian. Practical Biometrics: From Aspiration to Implementation. London; New York: Springer, 2004. Avoine, Gildas, Kassem

Regional estimation of extreme suspended sediment concentrations using watershed characteristics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tramblay, Yves; Ouarda, Taha B. M. J.; St-Hilaire, André; Poulin, Jimmy

2010-01-01

SummaryThe number of stations monitoring daily suspended sediment concentration (SSC) has been decreasing since the 1980s in North America while suspended sediment is considered as a key variable for water quality. The objective of this study is to test the feasibility of regionalising extreme SSC, i.e. estimating SSC extremes values for ungauged basins. Annual maximum SSC for 72 rivers in Canada and USA were modelled with probability distributions in order to estimate quantiles corresponding to different return periods. Regionalisation techniques, originally developed for flood prediction in ungauged basins, were tested using the climatic, topographic, land cover and soils attributes of the watersheds. Two approaches were compared, using either physiographic characteristics or seasonality of extreme SSC to delineate the regions. Multiple regression models to estimate SSC quantiles as a function of watershed characteristics were built in each region, and compared to a global model including all sites. Regional estimates of SSC quantiles were compared with the local values. Results show that regional estimation of extreme SSC is more efficient than a global regression model including all sites. Groups/regions of stations have been identified, using either the watershed characteristics or the seasonality of occurrence for extreme SSC values providing a method to better describe the extreme events of SSC. The most important variables for predicting extreme SSC are the percentage of clay in the soils, precipitation intensity and forest cover.

Stationary and non-stationary extreme value modeling of extreme temperature in Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hasan, Husna; Salleh, Nur Hanim Mohd; Kassim, Suraiya

2014-09-01

Extreme annual temperature of eighteen stations in Malaysia is fitted to the Generalized Extreme Value distribution. Stationary and non-stationary models with trend are considered for each station and the Likelihood Ratio test is used to determine the best-fitting model. Results show that three out of eighteen stations i.e. Bayan Lepas, Labuan and Subang favor a model which is linear in the location parameter. A hierarchical cluster analysis is employed to investigate the existence of similar behavior among the stations. Three distinct clusters are found in which one of them consists of the stations that favor the non-stationary model. T-year estimated return levels of the extreme temperature are provided based on the chosen models.

On the identification of Dragon Kings among extreme-valued outliers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riva, M.; Neuman, S. P.; Guadagnini, A.

2013-07-01

Extreme values of earth, environmental, ecological, physical, biological, financial and other variables often form outliers to heavy tails of empirical frequency distributions. Quite commonly such tails are approximated by stretched exponential, log-normal or power functions. Recently there has been an interest in distinguishing between extreme-valued outliers that belong to the parent population of most data in a sample and those that do not. The first type, called Gray Swans by Nassim Nicholas Taleb (often confused in the literature with Taleb's totally unknowable Black Swans), is drawn from a known distribution of the tails which can thus be extrapolated beyond the range of sampled values. However, the magnitudes and/or space-time locations of unsampled Gray Swans cannot be foretold. The second type of extreme-valued outliers, termed Dragon Kings by Didier Sornette, may in his view be sometimes predicted based on how other data in the sample behave. This intriguing prospect has recently motivated some authors to propose statistical tests capable of identifying Dragon Kings in a given random sample. Here we apply three such tests to log air permeability data measured on the faces of a Berea sandstone block and to synthetic data generated in a manner statistically consistent with these measurements. We interpret the measurements to be, and generate synthetic data that are, samples from α-stable sub-Gaussian random fields subordinated to truncated fractional Gaussian noise (tfGn). All these data have frequency distributions characterized by power-law tails with extreme-valued outliers about the tail edges.

Modelling hydrological extremes under non-stationary conditions using climate covariates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vasiliades, Lampros; Galiatsatou, Panagiota; Loukas, Athanasios

2013-04-01

Extreme value theory is a probabilistic theory that can interpret the future probabilities of occurrence of extreme events (e.g. extreme precipitation and streamflow) using past observed records. Traditionally, extreme value theory requires the assumption of temporal stationarity. This assumption implies that the historical patterns of recurrence of extreme events are static over time. However, the hydroclimatic system is nonstationary on time scales that are relevant to extreme value analysis, due to human-mediated and natural environmental change. In this study the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution is used to assess nonstationarity in annual maximum daily rainfall and streamflow timeseries at selected meteorological and hydrometric stations in Greece and Cyprus. The GEV distribution parameters (location, scale, and shape) are specified as functions of time-varying covariates and estimated using the conditional density network (CDN) as proposed by Cannon (2010). The CDN is a probabilistic extension of the multilayer perceptron neural network. Model parameters are estimated via the generalized maximum likelihood (GML) approach using the quasi-Newton BFGS optimization algorithm, and the appropriate GEV-CDN model architecture for the selected meteorological and hydrometric stations is selected by fitting increasingly complicated models and choosing the one that minimizes the Akaike information criterion with small sample size correction. For all case studies in Greece and Cyprus different formulations are tested with combinational cases of stationary and nonstationary parameters of the GEV distribution, linear and non-linear architecture of the CDN and combinations of the input climatic covariates. Climatic indices such as the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), which describes atmospheric circulation in the eastern tropical pacific related to El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index that varies on an interdecadal rather than interannual time scale and the atmospheric circulation patterns as expressed by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index are used to express the GEV parameters as functions of the covariates. Results show that the nonstationary GEV model can be an efficient tool to take into account the dependencies between extreme value random variables and the temporal evolution of the climate.

Extreme between-study homogeneity in meta-analyses could offer useful insights.

PubMed

Ioannidis, John P A; Trikalinos, Thomas A; Zintzaras, Elias

2006-10-01

Meta-analyses are routinely evaluated for the presence of large between-study heterogeneity. We examined whether it is also important to probe whether there is extreme between-study homogeneity. We used heterogeneity tests with left-sided statistical significance for inference and developed a Monte Carlo simulation test for testing extreme homogeneity in risk ratios across studies, using the empiric distribution of the summary risk ratio and heterogeneity statistic. A left-sided P=0.01 threshold was set for claiming extreme homogeneity to minimize type I error. Among 11,803 meta-analyses with binary contrasts from the Cochrane Library, 143 (1.21%) had left-sided P-value <0.01 for the asymptotic Q statistic and 1,004 (8.50%) had left-sided P-value <0.10. The frequency of extreme between-study homogeneity did not depend on the number of studies in the meta-analyses. We identified examples where extreme between-study homogeneity (left-sided P-value <0.01) could result from various possibilities beyond chance. These included inappropriate statistical inference (asymptotic vs. Monte Carlo), use of a specific effect metric, correlated data or stratification using strong predictors of outcome, and biases and potential fraud. Extreme between-study homogeneity may provide useful insights about a meta-analysis and its constituent studies.

Extreme events in total ozone over the Northern mid-latitudes: an analysis based on long-term data sets from five European ground-based stations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rieder, Harald E.; Jancso, Leonhardt M.; Rocco, Stefania Di; Staehelin, Johannes; Maeder, Joerg A.; Peter, Thomas; Ribatet, Mathieu; Davison, Anthony C.; de Backer, Hugo; Koehler, Ulf; Krzyścin, Janusz; Vaníček, Karel

2011-11-01

We apply methods from extreme value theory to identify extreme events in high (termed EHOs) and low (termed ELOs) total ozone and to describe the distribution tails (i.e. very high and very low values) of five long-term European ground-based total ozone time series. The influence of these extreme events on observed mean values, long-term trends and changes is analysed. The results show a decrease in EHOs and an increase in ELOs during the last decades, and establish that the observed downward trend in column ozone during the 1970-1990s is strongly dominated by changes in the frequency of extreme events. Furthermore, it is shown that clear ‘fingerprints’ of atmospheric dynamics (NAO, ENSO) and chemistry [ozone depleting substances (ODSs), polar vortex ozone loss] can be found in the frequency distribution of ozone extremes, even if no attribution is possible from standard metrics (e.g. annual mean values). The analysis complements earlier analysis for the world's longest total ozone record at Arosa, Switzerland, confirming and revealing the strong influence of atmospheric dynamics on observed ozone changes. The results provide clear evidence that in addition to ODS, volcanic eruptions and strong/moderate ENSO and NAO events had significant influence on column ozone in the European sector.

Extreme weather exposure identification for road networks - a comparative assessment of statistical methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schlögl, Matthias; Laaha, Gregor

2017-04-01

The assessment of road infrastructure exposure to extreme weather events is of major importance for scientists and practitioners alike. In this study, we compare the different extreme value approaches and fitting methods with respect to their value for assessing the exposure of transport networks to extreme precipitation and temperature impacts. Based on an Austrian data set from 25 meteorological stations representing diverse meteorological conditions, we assess the added value of partial duration series (PDS) over the standardly used annual maxima series (AMS) in order to give recommendations for performing extreme value statistics of meteorological hazards. Results show the merits of the robust L-moment estimation, which yielded better results than maximum likelihood estimation in 62 % of all cases. At the same time, results question the general assumption of the threshold excess approach (employing PDS) being superior to the block maxima approach (employing AMS) due to information gain. For low return periods (non-extreme events) the PDS approach tends to overestimate return levels as compared to the AMS approach, whereas an opposite behavior was found for high return levels (extreme events). In extreme cases, an inappropriate threshold was shown to lead to considerable biases that may outperform the possible gain of information from including additional extreme events by far. This effect was visible from neither the square-root criterion nor standardly used graphical diagnosis (mean residual life plot) but rather from a direct comparison of AMS and PDS in combined quantile plots. We therefore recommend performing AMS and PDS approaches simultaneously in order to select the best-suited approach. This will make the analyses more robust, not only in cases where threshold selection and dependency introduces biases to the PDS approach but also in cases where the AMS contains non-extreme events that may introduce similar biases. For assessing the performance of extreme events we recommend the use of conditional performance measures that focus on rare events only in addition to standardly used unconditional indicators. The findings of the study directly address road and traffic management but can be transferred to a range of other environmental variables including meteorological and hydrological quantities.

Analysis of extreme precipitation characteristics in low mountain areas based on three-dimensional copulas—taking Kuandian County as an example

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Cailin; Ren, Xuehui; Li, Ying

2017-04-01

We defined the threshold of extreme precipitation using detrended fluctuation analysis based on daily precipitation during 1955-2013 in Kuandian County, Liaoning Province. Three-dimensional copulas were introduced to analyze the characteristics of four extreme precipitation factors: the annual extreme precipitation day, extreme precipitation amount, annual average extreme precipitation intensity, and extreme precipitation rate of contribution. The results show that (1) the threshold is 95.0 mm, extreme precipitation events generally occur 1-2 times a year, the average extreme precipitation intensity is 100-150 mm, and the extreme precipitation amount is 100-270 mm accounting for 10 to 37 % of annual precipitation. (2) The generalized extreme value distribution, extreme value distribution, and generalized Pareto distribution are suitable for fitting the distribution function for each element of extreme precipitation. The Ali-Mikhail-Haq (AMH) copula function reflects the joint characteristics of extreme precipitation factors. (3) The return period of the three types has significant synchronicity, and the joint return period and co-occurrence return period have long delay when the return period of the single factor is long. This reflects the inalienability of extreme precipitation factors. The co-occurrence return period is longer than that of the single factor and joint return period. (4) The single factor fitting only reflects single factor information of extreme precipitation but is unrelated to the relationship between factors. Three-dimensional copulas represent the internal information of extreme precipitation factors and are closer to the actual. The copula function is potentially widely applicable for the multiple factors of extreme precipitation.

Interpretation of heavy rainfall spatial distribution in mountain watersheds by copula functions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grossi, Giovanna; Balistrocchi, Matteo

2016-04-01

The spatial distribution of heavy rainfalls can strongly influence flood dynamics in mountain watersheds, depending on their geomorphologic features, namely orography, slope, land covers and soil types. Unfortunately, the direct observation of rainfall fields by meteorological radar is very difficult in this situation, so that interpolation of rain gauge observations or downscaling of meteorological predictions must be adopted to derive spatial rainfall distributions. To do so, various stochastic and physically based approaches are already available, even though the first one is the most familiar in hydrology. Indeed, Kriging interpolation procedures represent very popular techniques to face this problem by means of a stochastic approach. A certain number of restrictive assumptions and parameter uncertainties however affects Kriging. Many alternative formulations and additional procedures were therefore developed during the last decades. More recently, copula functions (Joe, 1997; Nelsen, 2006; Salvadori et al. 2007) were suggested to provide a more straightforward solution to carry out spatial interpolations of hydrologic variables (Bardossy & Pegram; 2009). Main advantages lie in the possibility of i) assessing the dependence structure relating to rainfall variables independently of marginal distributions, ii) expressing the association degree through rank correlation coefficients, iii) implementing marginal distributions and copula functions belonging to different models to develop complex joint distribution functions, iv) verifying the model reliability by effective statistical tests (Genest et al., 2009). A suitable case study to verify these potentialities is provided by the Taro River, a right-bank tributary of the Po River (northern Italy), whose contributing area amounts to about 2˙000 km2. The mountain catchment area is divided into two similar watersheds, so that spatial distribution is crucial in extreme flood event generation. A quite well diffused hydro-meteorological network, consisting of about 30 rain gauges and 10 hydrometers, monitors this medium-size watershed. A decade of rainfall-runoff event observations are available. Severe rainfall events were identified with reference to a main raingauge station, by using an interevent time definition and a depth threshold. Rainfall depths were thus derived and the spatial variability of their association degree was represented by using the Kendall coefficient. A unique copula model based on Gumbel copula function was finally found to be suitable to represent the dependence structure relating to rainfall depths observed in distinct raingauges. Bardossy A., Pegram G. (2009), Copula based multisite model for daily precipitation simulation, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 2299-2314. Genest C., Rémilland B., Beaudoin D. (2009), Goodness-of-fit tests for copulas: a review and a power study, Insur. Math. Econ., 44(2), 199-213. Joe H. (1997), Multivariate models and dependence concepts, Chapman and Hall, London. Nelsen R. B. (2006), An introduction to copulas, second ed., Springer, New York. Salvadori G., De Michele C., Kottegoda N. T., Rosso R. (2007), Extremes in nature: an approach using copulas, Springer, Dordrecht, The Nederlands.

Extreme Value Theory and the New Sunspot Number Series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Acero, F. J.; Carrasco, V. M. S.; Gallego, M. C.; García, J. A.; Vaquero, J. M.

2017-04-01

Extreme value theory was employed to study solar activity using the new sunspot number index. The block maxima approach was used at yearly (1700-2015), monthly (1749-2016), and daily (1818-2016) scales, selecting the maximum sunspot number value for each solar cycle, and the peaks-over-threshold (POT) technique was used after a declustering process only for the daily data. Both techniques led to negative values for the shape parameters. This implies that the extreme sunspot number value distribution has an upper bound. The return level (RL) values obtained from the POT approach were greater than when using the block maxima technique. Regarding the POT approach, the 110 year (550 and 1100 year) RLs were lower (higher) than the daily maximum observed sunspot number value of 528. Furthermore, according to the block maxima approach, the 10-cycle RL lay within the block maxima daily sunspot number range, as expected, but it was striking that the 50- and 100-cycle RLs were also within that range. Thus, it would seem that the RL is reaching a plateau, and, although one must be cautious, it would be difficult to attain sunspot number values greater than 550. The extreme value trends from the four series (yearly, monthly, and daily maxima per solar cycle, and POT after declustering the daily data) were analyzed with the Mann-Kendall test and Sen’s method. Only the negative trend of the daily data with the POT technique was statistically significant.

GPS FOM Chimney Analysis using Generalized Extreme Value Distribution

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ott, Rick; Frisbee, Joe; Saha, Kanan

2004-01-01

Many a time an objective of a statistical analysis is to estimate a limit value like 3-sigma 95% confidence upper limit from a data sample. The generalized Extreme Value Distribution method can be profitably employed in many situations for such an estimate. . .. It is well known that according to the Central Limit theorem the mean value of a large data set is normally distributed irrespective of the distribution of the data from which the mean value is derived. In a somewhat similar fashion it is observed that many times the extreme value of a data set has a distribution that can be formulated with a Generalized Distribution. In space shuttle entry with 3-string GPS navigation the Figure Of Merit (FOM) value gives a measure of GPS navigated state accuracy. A GPS navigated state with FOM of 6 or higher is deemed unacceptable and is said to form a FOM 6 or higher chimney. A FOM chimney is a period of time during which the FOM value stays higher than 5. A longer period of FOM of value 6 or higher causes navigated state to accumulate more error for a lack of state update. For an acceptable landing it is imperative that the state error remains low and hence at low altitude during entry GPS data of FOM greater than 5 must not last more than 138 seconds. I To test the GPS performAnce many entry test cases were simulated at the Avionics Development Laboratory. Only high value FoM chimneys are consequential. The extreme value statistical technique is applied to analyze high value FOM chimneys. The Maximum likelihood method is used to determine parameters that characterize the GEV distribution, and then the limit value statistics are estimated.

Nanomaterials in Extreme Environments: Fundamentals and Applications Rostislav A. Andrievski and Arsen V. Khatchoyan

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Devanathan, Ram

Nanomaterials in Extreme Environments Rostislav A. Andrievski and Arsen V. Khatchoyan Springer, 2016 106 pages, $99.00 (e-book $69.99) ISBN 978–3-319–25331–2 This slim volume is an extensive review of our current understanding of the response of nanostructured materials to extreme operating conditions, such as high temperature, flux of high energy neutrons, high pressure, mechanical stress, and oxidizing environments. The emphasis is on metallic materials, especially Cu alloys. Graphene-based materials, fullerenes, polymeric materials, nano-glasses and glass-ceramics are not covered by this review. The book has six chapters including an introduction and a brief conclusion. The introduction documents the growth of scientific interestmore » in nanostructured materials and stresses the need to study the behavior of nanomaterials under extreme conditions. This chapter also presents Herbert Gleiter’s classification of nanomaterials into twelve groups based on the shapes of the nanoscale features and chemical composition of the components of the nanostructure. The second chapter deals with the high temperature environment and the thermodynamics and kinetics of grain growth. The authors identify the lack of reliable thermodynamic data as a key limitation in this field. The discussion brings out the interplay of structural relaxation, redistribution of excess free volume, diffusion, and recrystallization in multicomponent nanostructures at elevated temperature. Chapter 3 focuses on the effects of ion and neutron irradiation on the structure and properties of nanomaterials. The authors do a good job of highlighting recent studies on the radiation tolerance of nanocrystalline oxides and rapid grain growth under irradiation. The material addresses both fission and fusion reactor applications. Chapter 4 reviews the effects of severe plastic deformation and cyclic loading on nanostructure formation and phase transformation. This chapter also explores the challenge of achieving high density while retaining nanostructural features during processing under extreme loads and high temperatures. Chapter 5 discusses the effects of corrosion on nanomaterials. The behavior of a variety of alloys and high melting point compounds in liquid media and high temperature oxidizing environments is reviewed. The concluding chapter identifies areas for further research. The book would have benefited from careful copy editing for use of the English language. Moreover, the excessive use of acronyms makes the text difficult to read. Each chapter ends with a section on the application of nanomaterials and a long list of references. The integration of theoretical approaches and simulation results with experimental data offers fresh insights into the behavior of nanomaterials. Overall, this book will serve as useful reference material for researchers interested in nanomaterials driven to extremes. Reviewer: Ram Devanathan is Technical Group Manager of Reactor Materials and Mechanical Design, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, USA.« less

Estimated variability of National Atmospheric Deposition Program/Mercury Deposition Network measurements using collocated samplers

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wetherbee, G.A.; Gay, D.A.; Brunette, R.C.; Sweet, C.W.

2007-01-01

The National Atmospheric Deposition Program/Mercury Deposition Network (MDN) provides long-term, quality-assured records of mercury in wet deposition in the USA and Canada. Interpretation of spatial and temporal trends in the MDN data requires quantification of the variability of the MDN measurements. Variability is quantified for MDN data from collocated samplers at MDN sites in two states, one in Illinois and one in Washington. Median absolute differences in the collocated sampler data for total mercury concentration are approximately 11% of the median mercury concentration for all valid 1999-2004 MDN data. Median absolute differences are between 3.0% and 14% of the median MDN value for collector catch (sample volume) and between 6.0% and 15% of the median MDN value for mercury wet deposition. The overall measurement errors are sufficiently low to resolve between NADP/MDN measurements by ??2 ng??l-1 and ??2 ????m-2?? year-1, which are the contour intervals used to display the data on NADP isopleths maps for concentration and deposition, respectively. ?? Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2007.

Estimating neuromuscular stimulation within the human torso with Taser stimulus.

PubMed

Sun, Hongyu; Webster, John G

2007-11-07

Designers of electromuscular incapacitation devices need to know efficacy. Which areas of nerve and muscle are stimulated and are these areas adequate to cause incapacitation? This paper focuses on efficacy, which used a torso-sized finite element model with a mesh of about 5 mm. To estimate the neuromuscular regions stimulated by the Taser X26, calculations of electric current density and field strength values with 1 A inserted into the torso using the Utah 3D mesh were made. Field-times-duration values for given Taser stimulation were calculated. Then the region where the motor nerve was stimulated by the Taser was estimated by using a field-times-duration threshold from Reilly (1998 'Applied Bioelectricity: From Electrical Stimulation to Electropathology ' (New York: Springer)). Neuromuscular stimulation occurred up to about 19 cm away from the darts and included the spinal cord. The current density at the heart for dart separation less than 10 cm was smaller than for larger dart separation. Users of finite element computer models will find information for torso models and their creation, meshing and operation.

Estimating neuromuscular stimulation within the human torso with Taser® stimulus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Hongyu; Webster, John G.

2007-11-01

Designers of electromuscular incapacitation devices need to know efficacy. Which areas of nerve and muscle are stimulated and are these areas adequate to cause incapacitation? This paper focuses on efficacy, which used a torso-sized finite element model with a mesh of about 5 mm. To estimate the neuromuscular regions stimulated by the Taser® X26, calculations of electric current density and field strength values with 1 A inserted into the torso using the Utah 3D mesh were made. Field-times-duration values for given Taser stimulation were calculated. Then the region where the motor nerve was stimulated by the Taser was estimated by using a field-times-duration threshold from Reilly (1998 Applied Bioelectricity: From Electrical Stimulation to Electropathology (New York: Springer)). Neuromuscular stimulation occurred up to about 19 cm away from the darts and included the spinal cord. The current density at the heart for dart separation less than 10 cm was smaller than for larger dart separation. Users of finite element computer models will find information for torso models and their creation, meshing and operation.

A room-temperature phase transition in maximum microcline - Heat capacity measurements

USGS Publications Warehouse

Openshaw, R.E.; Hemingway, B.S.; Robie, R.A.; Krupka, K.M.

1979-01-01

The thermal hysteresis in heat capacity measurements recently reported (Openshaw et al., 1976) for a maximum microcline prepared from Amelia albite by fused-salt ion-exchange is described in detail. The hysteresis is characterized by two limiting and reproducible curves which differ by 1% of the measured heat capacities. The lower curve, denoted curve B, represents the values obtained before the sample had been cooled below 300 K. Measurements made immediately after cooling the sample below 250 K followed a second parallel curve, curve A, to at least 370 K. Values intermediate to the two limiting curves were also obtained. The transitions from the B to the A curve were rapid and observed to occur three times. The time required to complete the transition from the A to the B curve increased from 39 h to 102 h in the two times it was observed to occur. The hysteresis is interpreted as evidence of a phase change in microcline at 300??10 K The heat effect associated with the phase change has not been evaluated. ?? 1979 Springer-Verlag.

Nonparametric Regression Subject to a Given Number of Local Extreme Value

DTIC Science & Technology

2001-07-01

compilation report: ADP013708 thru ADP013761 UNCLASSIFIED Nonparametric regression subject to a given number of local extreme value Ali Majidi and Laurie...locations of the local extremes for the smoothing algorithm. 280 A. Majidi and L. Davies 3 The smoothing problem We make the smoothing problem precise...is the solution of QP3. k--oo 282 A. Majidi and L. Davies FiG. 2. The captions top-left, top-right, bottom-left, bottom-right show the result of the

Persistence Mapping Using EUV Solar Imager Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Thompson, B. J.; Young, C. A.

2016-01-01

We describe a simple image processing technique that is useful for the visualization and depiction of gradually evolving or intermittent structures in solar physics extreme-ultraviolet imagery. The technique is an application of image segmentation, which we call "Persistence Mapping," to isolate extreme values in a data set, and is particularly useful for the problem of capturing phenomena that are evolving in both space and time. While integration or "time-lapse" imaging uses the full sample (of size N ), Persistence Mapping rejects (N - 1)/N of the data set and identifies the most relevant 1/N values using the following rule: if a pixel reaches an extreme value, it retains that value until that value is exceeded. The simplest examples isolate minima and maxima, but any quantile or statistic can be used. This paper demonstrates how the technique has been used to extract the dynamics in long-term evolution of comet tails, erupting material, and EUV dimming regions.

The possible role of thiosulfate in the precipitation of 34S-rich barite in some Mississippi Valley-type deposits

USGS Publications Warehouse

Spirakis, C.S.

1991-01-01

The precipitation of extremely 34S-rich barite in the late stage of mineralization in the Mississippi Valleytype deposits of the Illinois-Kentucky district (U.S.A.) may be explained by reactions involving thiosulfate (S2O3=). Inorganic processes are known to concentrate 34S in the sulfonate site of thiosulfate and 32S in the sulfate site. In the mineralizing solution, these inorganic processes may have fractionated sulfur between the two sites by about 40 per mil. At the low temperatures of the late barite stage of mineralization, bacteria are known to metabolize thiosulfate by various reactions. In one of these, dissimilatory reduction, hydrogen sulfide and sulfite are produced. Isotopically light sulfite is preferentially reduced to sulfide by bacteria to leave a residual sulfite enriched in 34S. Part of the residual sulfite may be oxidized to form isotopically heavy sulfate; part may recombine with hydrogen sulfide to form thiosulfate. The recombination also enriches the sulfonate site in 34S and the sulfane site in 32S. Recycling the newly formed thiosulfate through the above steps further enriches sulfite and sulfate from oxidation of sulfite in 34S. During genesis of the ores, the aggregate effect of these reactions may have been the precipitation of extremely 34S-rich barite. The sequence of reactions suggested above requires the presence of organic matter. Previously proposed reactions to account for the precipitation of sulfide minerals and fluorite and for the carbonate paragenesis also require the presence of organic matter. Thus, organic matter in the host rocks may cause the various ore-zone reactions and account for the localization of the ores. ?? 1991 Springer-Verlag.

Biomass, production and woody detritus in an old coast redwood (Sequoia sempervirens) forest

USGS Publications Warehouse

Busing, R.T.; Fujimori, T.

2005-01-01

We examined aboveground biomass dynamics, aboveground net primary production (ANPP), and woody detritus input in an old Sequoia sempervirens stand over a three-decade period. Our estimates of aboveground biomass ranged from 3300 to 5800 Mg ha-1. Stem biomass estimates ranged from 3000 to 5200 Mg ha-1. Stem biomass declined 7% over the study interval. Biomass dynamics were patchy, with marked declines in recent tree-fall patches <0.05 ha in size. Larger tree-fall patches approaching 0.2 ha in size were observed outside the study plot. Our estimates of ANPP ranged from 6 to 14 Mg ha -1yr-1. Estimates of 7 to 10 Mg ha-1yr -1 were considered to be relatively accurate. Thus, our estimates based on long-term data corroborated the findings of earlier short-term studies. ANPP of old, pure stands of Sequoia was not above average for temperate forests. Even though production was potentially high on a per stem basis, it was moderate at the stand level. We obtained values of 797 m3 ha -1 and 262 Mg ha-1 for coarse woody detritus volume and mass, respectively. Fine woody detritus volume and mass were estimated at 16 m3 ha-1 and 5 Mg ha-1, respectively. Standing dead trees (or snags) comprised 7% of the total coarse detritus volume and 8% of the total mass. Coarse detritus input averaged 5.7 to 6.9 Mg ha -1yr-1. Assuming steady-state input and pool of coarse detritus, we obtained a decay rate constant of 0.022 to 0.026. The old-growth stand of Sequoia studied had extremely high biomass, but ANPP was moderate and the amount of woody detritus was not exceptionally large. Biomass accretion and loss were not rapid in this stand partly because of the slow population dynamics and low canopy turnover rate of Sequoia at the old-growth stage. Nomenclature: Hickman (1993). ?? Springer 2005.

Research in Stochastic Processes.

DTIC Science & Technology

1982-12-01

constant high level boundary. References 1. Jurg Husler , Extremie values of non-stationary sequ-ences ard the extr-rmal index, Center for Stochastic...A. Weron, Oct. 82. 20. "Extreme values of non-stationary sequences and the extremal index." Jurg Husler , Oct. 82. 21. "A finitely additive white noise...string model, Y. Miyahara, Carleton University and Nagoya University. Sept. 22 On extremfe values of non-stationary sequences, J. Husler , University of

More tornadoes in the most extreme U.S. tornado outbreaks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tippett, Michael K.; Lepore, Chiara; Cohen, Joel E.

2016-12-01

Tornadoes and severe thunderstorms kill people and damage property every year. Estimated U.S. insured losses due to severe thunderstorms in the first half of 2016 were $8.5 billion (US). The largest U.S. effects of tornadoes result from tornado outbreaks, which are sequences of tornadoes that occur in close succession. Here, using extreme value analysis, we find that the frequency of U.S. outbreaks with many tornadoes is increasing and that it is increasing faster for more extreme outbreaks. We model this behavior by extreme value distributions with parameters that are linear functions of time or of some indicators of multidecadal climatic variability. Extreme meteorological environments associated with severe thunderstorms show consistent upward trends, but the trends do not resemble those currently expected to result from global warming.

Gastrostomy feeding tube - pump - child

MedlinePlus

... at home. In: O'Keefe SJD, ed. The Principles and Practice of Nutritional Support . New York, NY: Springer; 2015:chap 10. Schattner MA, Grossman EB. Nutritional management. In: Feldman M, Friedman LS, Brandt LJ, eds. ...

Erratum to: When violence becomes endemic.

PubMed

Roberts, Leslie F

2018-05-01

The article "When violence becomes endemic", written by Leslie F. Roberts, was originally published electronically on the publisher's internet portal (currently SpringerLink) on 03 August 2017 without open access. The original article was corrected.

Genetics Home Reference: alpha-mannosidosis

MedlinePlus

... on PubMed Gutschalk A, Harting I, Cantz M, Springer C, Rohrschneider K, Meinck HM. Adult alpha-mannosidosis: ... AL, Heikinheimo P, Sbaragli M, Balducci C, Persichetti E, Van Maldergem L, Filocamo M, Bembi B, Beccari ...

Extreme value modelling of Ghana stock exchange index.

PubMed

Nortey, Ezekiel N N; Asare, Kwabena; Mettle, Felix Okoe

2015-01-01

Modelling of extreme events has always been of interest in fields such as hydrology and meteorology. However, after the recent global financial crises, appropriate models for modelling of such rare events leading to these crises have become quite essential in the finance and risk management fields. This paper models the extreme values of the Ghana stock exchange all-shares index (2000-2010) by applying the extreme value theory (EVT) to fit a model to the tails of the daily stock returns data. A conditional approach of the EVT was preferred and hence an ARMA-GARCH model was fitted to the data to correct for the effects of autocorrelation and conditional heteroscedastic terms present in the returns series, before the EVT method was applied. The Peak Over Threshold approach of the EVT, which fits a Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) model to excesses above a certain selected threshold, was employed. Maximum likelihood estimates of the model parameters were obtained and the model's goodness of fit was assessed graphically using Q-Q, P-P and density plots. The findings indicate that the GPD provides an adequate fit to the data of excesses. The size of the extreme daily Ghanaian stock market movements were then computed using the value at risk and expected shortfall risk measures at some high quantiles, based on the fitted GPD model.

Long-term trend of satellite-observed significant wave height and impact on ecosystem in the East/Japan Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woo, Hye-Jin; Park, Kyung-Ae

2017-09-01

Significant wave height (SWH) data of nine satellite altimeters were validated with in-situ SWH measurements from buoy stations in the East/Japan Sea (EJS) and the Northwest Pacific Ocean. The spatial and temporal variability of extreme SWHs was investigated by defining the 90th, 95th, and 99th percentiles based on percentile analysis. The annual mean of extreme SWHs was dramatically increased by 3.45 m in the EJS, which is significantly higher than the normal mean of about 1.44 m. The spatial distributions of SWHs showed significantly higher values in the eastern region of the EJS than those in the western part. Characteristic seasonality was found from the time-series SWHs with high SWHs (>2.5 m) in winter but low values (<1 m) in summer. The trends of the normal and extreme (99th percentile) SWHs in the EJS had a positive value of 0.0056 m year-1 and 0.0125 m year-1, respectively. The long-term trend demonstrated that higher SWH values were more extreme with time during the past decades. The predominant spatial distinctions between the coastal regions in the marginal seas of the Northwest Pacific Ocean and open ocean regions were presented. In spring, both normal and extreme SWHs showed substantially increasing trends in the EJS. Finally, we first presented the impact of the long-term trend of extreme SWHs on the marine ecosystem through vertical mixing enhancement in the upper ocean of the EJS.

The end of trend-estimation for extreme floods under climate change?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schulz, Karsten; Bernhardt, Matthias

2016-04-01

An increased risk of flood events is one of the major threats under future climate change conditions. Therefore, many recent studies have investigated trends in flood extreme occurences using historic long-term river discharge data as well as simulations from combined global/regional climate and hydrological models. Severe floods are relatively rare events and the robust estimation of their probability of occurrence requires long time series of data (6). Following a method outlined by the IPCC research community, trends in extreme floods are calculated based on the difference of discharge values exceeding e.g. a 100-year level (Q100) between two 30-year windows, which represents prevailing conditions in a reference and a future time period, respectively. Following this approach, we analysed multiple, synthetically derived 2,000-year trend-free, yearly maximum runoff data generated using three different extreme value distributions (EDV). The parameters were estimated from long term runoff data of four large European watersheds (Danube, Elbe, Rhine, Thames). Both, Q100-values estimated from 30-year moving windows, as well as the subsequently derived trends showed enormous variations with time: for example, estimating the Extreme Value (Gumbel) - distribution for the Danube data, trends of Q100 in the synthetic time-series range from -4,480 to 4,028 m³/s per 100 years (Q100 =10,071m³/s, for reference). Similar results were found when applying other extreme value distributions (Weibull, and log-Normal) to all of the watersheds considered. This variability or "background noise" of estimating trends in flood extremes makes it almost impossible to significantly distinguish any real trend in observed as well as modelled data when such an approach is applied. These uncertainties, even though known in principle are hardly addressed and discussed by the climate change impact community. Any decision making and flood risk management, including the dimensioning of flood protection measures, that is based on such studies might therefore be fundamentally flawed.

Beyond Traditional Extreme Value Theory Through a Metastatistical Approach: Lessons Learned from Precipitation, Hurricanes, and Storm Surges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marani, M.; Zorzetto, E.; Hosseini, S. R.; Miniussi, A.; Scaioni, M.

2017-12-01

The Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution is widely adopted irrespective of the properties of the stochastic process generating the extreme events. However, GEV presents several limitations, both theoretical (asymptotic validity for a large number of events/year or hypothesis of Poisson occurrences of Generalized Pareto events), and practical (fitting uses just yearly maxima or a few values above a high threshold). Here we describe the Metastatistical Extreme Value Distribution (MEVD, Marani & Ignaccolo, 2015), which relaxes asymptotic or Poisson/GPD assumptions and makes use of all available observations. We then illustrate the flexibility of the MEVD by applying it to daily precipitation, hurricane intensity, and storm surge magnitude. Application to daily rainfall from a global raingauge network shows that MEVD estimates are 50% more accurate than those from GEV when the recurrence interval of interest is much greater than the observational period. This makes MEVD suited for application to satellite rainfall observations ( 20 yrs length). Use of MEVD on TRMM data yields extreme event patterns that are in better agreement with surface observations than corresponding GEV estimates.Applied to the HURDAT2 Atlantic hurricane intensity dataset, MEVD significantly outperforms GEV estimates of extreme hurricanes. Interestingly, the Generalized Pareto distribution used for "ordinary" hurricane intensity points to the existence of a maximum limit wind speed that is significantly smaller than corresponding physically-based estimates. Finally, we applied the MEVD approach to water levels generated by tidal fluctuations and storm surges at a set of coastal sites spanning different storm-surge regimes. MEVD yields accurate estimates of large quantiles and inferences on tail thickness (fat vs. thin) of the underlying distribution of "ordinary" surges. In summary, the MEVD approach presents a number of theoretical and practical advantages, and outperforms traditional approaches in several applications. We conclude that the MEVD is a significant contribution to further generalize extreme value theory, with implications for a broad range of Earth Sciences.

Choosing the Mean versus an Extreme Resolution for Intrapersonal Values Conflicts: Is the Mean Usually More Golden?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kinnier, Richard T.

1984-01-01

Examined the resolution of value conflicts in 60 adults who wrote a solution to their conflicts. Compared extreme resolutions with those representing compromise. Compromisers and extremists did not differ in how rationally resolved they were about their solutions but compromisers felt better about their solutions. (JAC)

Modeling extreme PM10 concentration in Malaysia using generalized extreme value distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hasan, Husna; Mansor, Nadiah; Salleh, Nur Hanim Mohd

2015-05-01

Extreme PM10 concentration from the Air Pollutant Index (API) at thirteen monitoring stations in Malaysia is modeled using the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution. The data is blocked into monthly selection period. The Mann-Kendall (MK) test suggests a non-stationary model so two models are considered for the stations with trend. The likelihood ratio test is used to determine the best fitted model and the result shows that only two stations favor the non-stationary model (Model 2) while the other eleven stations favor stationary model (Model 1). The return level of PM10 concentration that is expected to exceed the maximum once within a selected period is obtained.

A trade-off solution between model resolution and covariance in surface-wave inversion

USGS Publications Warehouse

Xia, J.; Xu, Y.; Miller, R.D.; Zeng, C.

2010-01-01

Regularization is necessary for inversion of ill-posed geophysical problems. Appraisal of inverse models is essential for meaningful interpretation of these models. Because uncertainties are associated with regularization parameters, extra conditions are usually required to determine proper parameters for assessing inverse models. Commonly used techniques for assessment of a geophysical inverse model derived (generally iteratively) from a linear system are based on calculating the model resolution and the model covariance matrices. Because the model resolution and the model covariance matrices of the regularized solutions are controlled by the regularization parameter, direct assessment of inverse models using only the covariance matrix may provide incorrect results. To assess an inverted model, we use the concept of a trade-off between model resolution and covariance to find a proper regularization parameter with singular values calculated in the last iteration. We plot the singular values from large to small to form a singular value plot. A proper regularization parameter is normally the first singular value that approaches zero in the plot. With this regularization parameter, we obtain a trade-off solution between model resolution and model covariance in the vicinity of a regularized solution. The unit covariance matrix can then be used to calculate error bars of the inverse model at a resolution level determined by the regularization parameter. We demonstrate this approach with both synthetic and real surface-wave data. ?? 2010 Birkh??user / Springer Basel AG.

More tornadoes in the most extreme U.S. tornado outbreaks.

PubMed

Tippett, Michael K; Lepore, Chiara; Cohen, Joel E

2016-12-16

Tornadoes and severe thunderstorms kill people and damage property every year. Estimated U.S. insured losses due to severe thunderstorms in the first half of 2016 were $8.5 billion (US). The largest U.S. effects of tornadoes result from tornado outbreaks, which are sequences of tornadoes that occur in close succession. Here, using extreme value analysis, we find that the frequency of U.S. outbreaks with many tornadoes is increasing and that it is increasing faster for more extreme outbreaks. We model this behavior by extreme value distributions with parameters that are linear functions of time or of some indicators of multidecadal climatic variability. Extreme meteorological environments associated with severe thunderstorms show consistent upward trends, but the trends do not resemble those currently expected to result from global warming. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Tumor Grade

MedlinePlus

... may require immediate or more aggressive treatment. The importance of tumor grade in planning treatment and determining ... 7th ed. New York, NY: Springer; 2010. Related Resources Understanding Cancer ... Health and Human Services National Institutes of Health National Cancer Institute ...

Conversations on the habitability of worlds: The importance of volatiles

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bertaux, J.-L.; Carr, M.; Des Marais, D.J.; Gaidos, E.

2007-01-01

Our scientific forefathers discuss the interrelationships between water, climate, the atmosphere, and life on Earth and other terrestrial planets at a workshop in Nichtcha??tel, Switzerland. ?? 2007 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

A Generalized Framework for Non-Stationary Extreme Value Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ragno, E.; Cheng, L.; Sadegh, M.; AghaKouchak, A.

2017-12-01

Empirical trends in climate variables including precipitation, temperature, snow-water equivalent at regional to continental scales are evidence of changes in climate over time. The evolving climate conditions and human activity-related factors such as urbanization and population growth can exert further changes in weather and climate extremes. As a result, the scientific community faces an increasing demand for updated appraisal of the time-varying climate extremes. The purpose of this study is to offer a robust and flexible statistical tool for non-stationary extreme value analysis which can better characterize the severity and likelihood of extreme climatic variables. This is critical to ensure a more resilient environment in a changing climate. Following the positive feedback on the first version of Non-Stationary Extreme Value Analysis (NEVA) Toolbox by Cheng at al. 2014, we present an improved version, i.e. NEVA2.0. The upgraded version herein builds upon a newly-developed hybrid evolution Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach for numerical parameters estimation and uncertainty assessment. This addition leads to a more robust uncertainty estimates of return levels, return periods, and risks of climatic extremes under both stationary and non-stationary assumptions. Moreover, NEVA2.0 is flexible in incorporating any user-specified covariate other than the default time-covariate (e.g., CO2 emissions, large scale climatic oscillation patterns). The new feature will allow users to examine non-stationarity of extremes induced by physical conditions that underlie the extreme events (e.g. antecedent soil moisture deficit, large-scale climatic teleconnections, urbanization). In addition, the new version offers an option to generate stationary and/or non-stationary rainfall Intensity - Duration - Frequency (IDF) curves that are widely used for risk assessment and infrastructure design. Finally, a Graphical User Interface (GUI) of the package is provided, making NEVA accessible to a broader audience.

Extreme Value Analysis of hydro meteorological extremes in the ClimEx Large-Ensemble

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wood, R. R.; Martel, J. L.; Willkofer, F.; von Trentini, F.; Schmid, F. J.; Leduc, M.; Frigon, A.; Ludwig, R.

2017-12-01

Many studies show an increase in the magnitude and frequency of hydrological extreme events in the course of climate change. However the contribution of natural variability to the magnitude and frequency of hydrological extreme events is not yet settled. A reliable estimate of extreme events is from great interest for water management and public safety. In the course of the ClimEx Project (www.climex-project.org) a new single-model large-ensemble was created by dynamically downscaling the CanESM2 large-ensemble with the Canadian Regional Climate Model version 5 (CRCM5) for an European Domain and a Northeastern North-American domain. By utilizing the ClimEx 50-Member Large-Ensemble (CRCM5 driven by CanESM2 Large-Ensemble) a thorough analysis of natural variability in extreme events is possible. Are the current extreme value statistical methods able to account for natural variability? How large is the natural variability for e.g. a 1/100 year return period derived from a 50-Member Large-Ensemble for Europe and Northeastern North-America? These questions should be answered by applying various generalized extreme value distributions (GEV) to the ClimEx Large-Ensemble. Hereby various return levels (5-, 10-, 20-, 30-, 60- and 100-years) based on various lengths of time series (20-, 30-, 50-, 100- and 1500-years) should be analyzed for the maximum one day precipitation (RX1d), the maximum three hourly precipitation (RX3h) and the streamflow for selected catchments in Europe. The long time series of the ClimEx Ensemble (7500 years) allows us to give a first reliable estimate of the magnitude and frequency of certain extreme events.

New Insights into the Estimation of Extreme Geomagnetic Storm Occurrences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruffenach, Alexis; Winter, Hugo; Lavraud, Benoit; Bernardara, Pietro

2017-04-01

Space weather events such as intense geomagnetic storms are major disturbances of the near-Earth environment that may lead to serious impacts on our modern society. As such, it is of great importance to estimate their probability, and in particular that of extreme events. One approach largely used in statistical sciences for extreme events probability estimates is Extreme Value Analysis (EVA). Using this rigorous statistical framework, estimations of the occurrence of extreme geomagnetic storms are performed here based on the most relevant global parameters related to geomagnetic storms, such as ground parameters (e.g. geomagnetic Dst and aa indexes), and space parameters related to the characteristics of Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) (velocity, southward magnetic field component, electric field). Using our fitted model, we estimate the annual probability of a Carrington-type event (Dst = -850nT) to be on the order of 10-3, with a lower limit of the uncertainties on the return period of ˜500 years. Our estimate is significantly higher than that of most past studies, which typically had a return period of a few 100 years at maximum. Thus precautions are required when extrapolating intense values. Currently, the complexity of the processes and the length of available data inevitably leads to significant uncertainties in return period estimates for the occurrence of extreme geomagnetic storms. However, our application of extreme value models for extrapolating into the tail of the distribution provides a mathematically justified framework for the estimation of extreme return periods, thereby enabling the determination of more accurate estimates and reduced associated uncertainties.

Optical Rogue Waves: Theory and Experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taki, M.; Mussot, A.; Kudlinski, A.; Louvergneaux, E.; Kolobov, M.

2010-05-01

In the ocean, giant waves (also called killer waves, freak or rogue waves) are extremely rare and strong events. They are not well understood yet and the conditions which favour their emergence are unclear. Very recently, it was shown that the governing equations [1] as well as the statistical properties of an optical pulse propagating inside an optical fibre [2] mimic very well these gigantic surface waves in the ocean. Here we generate both experimentally and numerically optical rogue waves in a photonic crystal fiber (microstructured fiber) with continuous wave (CW) pumps. This is relevant for establishing an analogy with rogue waves in an open ocean. After recalling fundamental rogue waves [3] known as Akhmediev breathers that are solutions of pure nonlinear Schrödinger (NLS) equation, we analytically demonstrate that a generalized NLS equation, which governs the propagation of light in the fiber, exhibits convective modulationnal instability [4]. The latter provides one of the main explanations of the optical rogue wave extreme sensitivity to noisy initial conditions at the linear stage of their formation [5]. In the highly nonlinear regime, we provide the evidence that optical rogue waves result from soliton collisions leading to the rapid appearance/disappearance of a powerful optical pulse [6]. REFERENCES [1] C. Kharif, E. Pelinovsky, and A. Slunyaev, "Rogue Waves in the ocean", Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 2009 [2] D. R. Solli, C. Ropers, P. Koonath, and B. Jalali, "Optical rogue waves" Nature 450, 1054-1058, (2008). [3] N. Akhmediev, A. Ankiewicz, and M. Taki, "Waves that appear from nowhere and disappear without a trace", Phys. Lett. A 373, 675 (2009). [4] A. Mussot, E. Louvergneaux, N. Akhmediev, F. Reynaud, Delage, and M. Taki, "Optical fiber systems are convectively unstable", Phys. Rev. Lett. 101, 113904 (2008). [5] M. Taki, A. Mussot, A. Kudlinski, E. Louvergneaux, M. Kolobov, M. Douay, "Third-order dispersion for generating optical rogue solitons", Phys. Lett. A 374, 691-695 (2010). [6] A. Mussot, A. Kudlinski, M. Kolobov, E. Louvergneaux, M. Douay and M. Taki, "Observation of extreme temporal events in CW-pumped supercontinuum", Opt. Express 17 (19), 17010 (2009).

Visual Analysis among Novices: Training and Trend Lines as Graphic Aids

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nelson, Peter M.; Van Norman, Ethan R.; Christ, Theodore J.

2017-01-01

The current study evaluated the degree to which novice visual analysts could discern trends in simulated time-series data across differing levels of variability and extreme values. Forty-five novice visual analysts were trained in general principles of visual analysis. One group received brief training on how to identify and omit extreme values.…

Implementing Extreme Value Analysis in a Geospatial Workflow for Storm Surge Hazard Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Catelli, J.; Nong, S.

2014-12-01

Gridded data of 100-yr (1%) and 500-yr (0.2%) storm surge flood elevations for the United States, Gulf of Mexico, and East Coast are critical to understanding this natural hazard. Storm surge heights were calculated across the study area utilizing SLOSH (Sea, Lake, and Overland Surges from Hurricanes) model data for thousands of synthetic US landfalling hurricanes. Based on the results derived from SLOSH, a series of interpolations were performed using spatial analysis in a geographic information system (GIS) at both the SLOSH basin and the synthetic event levels. The result was a single grid of maximum flood elevations for each synthetic event. This project addresses the need to utilize extreme value theory in a geospatial environment to analyze coincident cells across multiple synthetic events. The results are 100-yr (1%) and 500-yr (0.2%) values for each grid cell in the study area. This talk details a geospatial approach to move raster data to SciPy's NumPy Array structure using the Python programming language. The data are then connected through a Python library to an outside statistical package like R to fit cell values to extreme value theory distributions and return values for specified recurrence intervals. While this is not a new process, the value behind this work is the ability to keep this process in a single geospatial environment and be able to easily replicate this process for other natural hazard applications and extreme event modeling.

Value-at-risk estimation with wavelet-based extreme value theory: Evidence from emerging markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cifter, Atilla

2011-06-01

This paper introduces wavelet-based extreme value theory (EVT) for univariate value-at-risk estimation. Wavelets and EVT are combined for volatility forecasting to estimate a hybrid model. In the first stage, wavelets are used as a threshold in generalized Pareto distribution, and in the second stage, EVT is applied with a wavelet-based threshold. This new model is applied to two major emerging stock markets: the Istanbul Stock Exchange (ISE) and the Budapest Stock Exchange (BUX). The relative performance of wavelet-based EVT is benchmarked against the Riskmetrics-EWMA, ARMA-GARCH, generalized Pareto distribution, and conditional generalized Pareto distribution models. The empirical results show that the wavelet-based extreme value theory increases predictive performance of financial forecasting according to number of violations and tail-loss tests. The superior forecasting performance of the wavelet-based EVT model is also consistent with Basel II requirements, and this new model can be used by financial institutions as well.

PERSISTENCE MAPPING USING EUV SOLAR IMAGER DATA

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Thompson, B. J.; Young, C. A., E-mail: barbara.j.thompson@nasa.gov

We describe a simple image processing technique that is useful for the visualization and depiction of gradually evolving or intermittent structures in solar physics extreme-ultraviolet imagery. The technique is an application of image segmentation, which we call “Persistence Mapping,” to isolate extreme values in a data set, and is particularly useful for the problem of capturing phenomena that are evolving in both space and time. While integration or “time-lapse” imaging uses the full sample (of size N ), Persistence Mapping rejects ( N − 1)/ N of the data set and identifies the most relevant 1/ N values using themore » following rule: if a pixel reaches an extreme value, it retains that value until that value is exceeded. The simplest examples isolate minima and maxima, but any quantile or statistic can be used. This paper demonstrates how the technique has been used to extract the dynamics in long-term evolution of comet tails, erupting material, and EUV dimming regions.« less

Rachiplusia nu larva as a biofactory to achieve high level expression of horseradish peroxidase.

PubMed

Romero, Lucía Virginia; Targovnik, Alexandra Marisa; Wolman, Federico Javier; Cascone, Osvaldo; Miranda, María Victoria

2011-05-01

A process based on orally-infected Rachiplusia nu larvae as biological factories for expression and one-step purification of horseradish peroxidase isozyme C (HRP-C) is described. The process allows obtaining high levels of pure HRP-C by membrane chromatography purification. The introduction of the partial polyhedrin homology sequence element in the target gene increased HRP-C expression level by 2.8-fold whereas it increased 1.8-fold when the larvae were reared at 27 °C instead of at 24 °C, summing up a 4.6-fold overall increase in the expression level. Additionally, HRP-C purification by membrane chromatography at a high flow rate greatly increase D the productivity without affecting the resolution. The V(max) and K(m) values of the recombinant HRP-C were similar to those of the HRP from Armoracia rusticana roots. © Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2011

Sandia Simple Particle Tracking (Sandia SPT) v. 1.0

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Anthony, Stephen M.

2015-06-15

Sandia SPT is designed as software to accompany a book chapter being published a methods chapter which provides an introduction on how to label and track individual proteins. The Sandia Simple Particle Tracking code uses techniques common to the image processing community, where its value is that it facilitates implementing the methods described in the book chapter by providing the necessary open-source code. The code performs single particle spot detection (or segmentation and localization) followed by tracking (or connecting the detected particles into trajectories). The book chapter, which along with the headers in each file, constitutes the documentation for themore » code is: Anthony, S.M.; Carroll-Portillo, A.; Timlon, J.A., Dynamics and Interactions of Individual Proteins in the Membrane of Living Cells. In Anup K. Singh (Ed.) Single Cell Protein Analysis Methods in Molecular Biology. Springer« less

Generalising the logistic map through the q-product

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pessoa, R. W. S.; Borges, E. P.

2011-03-01

We investigate a generalisation of the logistic map as xn+1 = 1 - axn otimesqmap xn (-1 <= xn <= 1, 0 < a <= 2) where otimesq stands for a generalisation of the ordinary product, known as q-product [Borges, E.P. Physica A 340, 95 (2004)]. The usual product, and consequently the usual logistic map, is recovered in the limit q → 1, The tent map is also a particular case for qmap → ∞. The generalisation of this (and others) algebraic operator has been widely used within nonextensive statistical mechanics context (see C. Tsallis, Introduction to Nonextensive Statistical Mechanics, Springer, NY, 2009). We focus the analysis for qmap > 1 at the edge of chaos, particularly at the first critical point ac, that depends on the value of qmap. Bifurcation diagrams, sensitivity to initial conditions, fractal dimension and rate of entropy growth are evaluated at ac(qmap), and connections with nonextensive statistical mechanics are explored.

Simulation of rockfalls triggered by earthquakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kobayashi, Y.; Harp, E.L.; Kagawa, T.

1990-01-01

A computer program to simulate the downslope movement of boulders in rolling or bouncing modes has been developed and applied to actual rockfalls triggered by the Mammoth Lakes, California, earthquake sequence in 1980 and the Central Idaho earthquake in 1983. In order to reproduce a movement mode where bouncing predominated, we introduced an artificial unevenness to the slope surface by adding a small random number to the interpolated value of the mid-points between the adjacent surveyed points. Three hundred simulations were computed for each site by changing the random number series, which determined distances and bouncing intervals. The movement of the boulders was, in general, rather erratic depending on the random numbers employed, and the results could not be seen as deterministic but stochastic. The closest agreement between calculated and actual movements was obtained at the site with the most detailed and accurate topographic measurements. ?? 1990 Springer-Verlag.

Periodic solution of neutral Lotka-Volterra system with periodic delays

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Zhijun; Chen, Lansun

2006-12-01

A nonautonomous n-species Lotka-Volterra system with neutral delays is investigated. A set of verifiable sufficient conditions is derived for the existence of at least one strictly positive periodic solution of this Lotka-Volterra system by applying an existence theorem and some analysis techniques, where the assumptions of the existence theorem are different from that of Gaines and Mawhin's continuation theorem [R.E. Gaines, J.L. Mawhin, Coincidence Degree and Nonlinear Differential Equations, Springer-Verlag, Berlin, 1977] and that of abstract continuation theory for k-set contraction [W. Petryshyn, Z. Yu, Existence theorem for periodic solutions of higher order nonlinear periodic boundary value problems, Nonlinear Anal. 6 (1982) 943-969]. Moreover, a problem proposed by Freedman and Wu [H.I. Freedman, J. Wu, Periodic solution of single species models with periodic delay, SIAM J. Math. Anal. 23 (1992) 689-701] is answered.

Phantom limb pain

MedlinePlus

... v652.pdf . Accessed May 16, 2016. Dinakar P. Principles of pain management. In: Daroff RB, Jankovic J, Mazziotta JC, eds. Bradley's Neurology in Clinical Practice . 7th ed. Philadelphia, PA: Elsevier; 2015:chap 54. Nikolajsen L, Springer JS, Haroutiunian S. Phantom ...

Correction to: Fe-S cluster assembly in the supergroup Excavata.

PubMed

Peña-Diaz, Priscila; Lukeš, Julius

2018-05-29

The article "Fe-S cluster assembly in the supergroup Excavata", written by Priscila Peña‑Diaz, Julius Lukeš was originally published electronically on the publisher's internet portal (currently SpringerLink) without open access.

Ostomy

MedlinePlus

... Chapter 31. Intestinal Stomas. Chapter in Beck, D.E., Roberts, P.L., Saclarides, T.J., Senagore, A.J., Stamos, M.J., Wexner, S.D., Eds. ASCRS Textbook of Colon and Rectal Surgery, 2nd Edition. Springer, New York, NY: 2011. National Digestive Disease Information ...

Reliability of the mangled extremity severity score in combat-related upper and lower extremity injuries.

PubMed

Ege, Tolga; Unlu, Aytekin; Tas, Huseyin; Bek, Dogan; Turkan, Selim; Cetinkaya, Aytac

2015-01-01

Decision of limb salvage or amputation is generally aided with several trauma scoring systems such as the mangled extremity severity score (MESS). However, the reliability of the injury scores in the settling of open fractures due to explosives and missiles is challenging. Mortality and morbidity of the extremity trauma due to firearms are generally associated with time delay in revascularization, injury mechanism, anatomy of the injured site, associated injuries, age and the environmental circumstance. The purpose of the retrospective study was to evaluate the extent of extremity injuries due to ballistic missiles and to detect the reliability of mangled extremity severity score (MESS) in both upper and lower extremities. Between 2004 and 2014, 139 Gustillo Anderson Type III open fractures of both the upper and lower extremities were enrolled in the study. Data for patient age, fire arm type, transporting time from the field to the hospital (and the method), injury severity scores, MESS scores, fracture types, amputation levels, bone fixation methods and postoperative infections and complications retrieved from the two level-2 trauma center's data base. Sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values of the MESS were calculated to detect the ability in deciding amputation in the mangled limb. Amputation was performed in 39 extremities and limb salvage attempted in 100 extremities. The mean followup time was 14.6 months (range 6-32 months). In the amputated group, the mean MESS scores for upper and lower extremity were 8.8 (range 6-11) and 9.24 (range 6-11), respectively. In the limb salvage group, the mean MESS scores for upper and lower extremities were 5.29 (range 4-7) and 5.19 (range 3-8), respectively. Sensitivity of MESS in upper and lower extremities were calculated as 80% and 79.4% and positive predictive values detected as 55.55% and 83.3%, respectively. Specificity of MESS score for upper and lower extremities was 84% and 86.6%; negative predictive values were calculated as 95.45% and 90.2%, respectively. MESS is not predictive in combat related extremity injuries especially if between a score of 6-8. Limb ischemia and presence or absence of shock can be used in initial decision-making for amputation.

Reliability of the mangled extremity severity score in combat-related upper and lower extremity injuries

PubMed Central

Ege, Tolga; Unlu, Aytekin; Tas, Huseyin; Bek, Dogan; Turkan, Selim; Cetinkaya, Aytac

2015-01-01

Background: Decision of limb salvage or amputation is generally aided with several trauma scoring systems such as the mangled extremity severity score (MESS). However, the reliability of the injury scores in the settling of open fractures due to explosives and missiles is challenging. Mortality and morbidity of the extremity trauma due to firearms are generally associated with time delay in revascularization, injury mechanism, anatomy of the injured site, associated injuries, age and the environmental circumstance. The purpose of the retrospective study was to evaluate the extent of extremity injuries due to ballistic missiles and to detect the reliability of mangled extremity severity score (MESS) in both upper and lower extremities. Materials and Methods: Between 2004 and 2014, 139 Gustillo Anderson Type III open fractures of both the upper and lower extremities were enrolled in the study. Data for patient age, fire arm type, transporting time from the field to the hospital (and the method), injury severity scores, MESS scores, fracture types, amputation levels, bone fixation methods and postoperative infections and complications retrieved from the two level-2 trauma center's data base. Sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values of the MESS were calculated to detect the ability in deciding amputation in the mangled limb. Results: Amputation was performed in 39 extremities and limb salvage attempted in 100 extremities. The mean followup time was 14.6 months (range 6–32 months). In the amputated group, the mean MESS scores for upper and lower extremity were 8.8 (range 6–11) and 9.24 (range 6–11), respectively. In the limb salvage group, the mean MESS scores for upper and lower extremities were 5.29 (range 4–7) and 5.19 (range 3–8), respectively. Sensitivity of MESS in upper and lower extremities were calculated as 80% and 79.4% and positive predictive values detected as 55.55% and 83.3%, respectively. Specificity of MESS score for upper and lower extremities was 84% and 86.6%; negative predictive values were calculated as 95.45% and 90.2%, respectively. Conclusion: MESS is not predictive in combat related extremity injuries especially if between a score of 6–8. Limb ischemia and presence or absence of shock can be used in initial decision-making for amputation. PMID:26806974

The Ethics of Biomedical Big Data : Brent Daniel Mittelstadt and Luciano Floridi, eds. 2016, Springer International Publishing (Cham, Switzerland, 978-3-319-33523-0, 480 pp.).

PubMed

Mason, Paul H

2017-12-01

The availability of diverse sources of data related to health and illness from various types of modern communication technology presents the possibility of augmenting medical knowledge, clinical care, and the patient experience. New forms of data collection and analysis will undoubtedly transform epidemiology, public health, and clinical practice, but what ethical considerations come in to play? With a view to analysing the ethical and regulatory dimensions of burgeoning forms of biomedical big data, Brent Daniel Mittelstadt and Luciano Floridi have brought together thirty scholars in an edited volume that forms part of Springer's Law, Governance and Technology book series in a collection titled The Ethics of Biomedical Big Data. With eighteen chapters partitioned into six carefully devised sections, this volume engages with core theoretical, ethical, and regulatory challenges posed by biomedical big data.

Statistical Modeling of Extreme Values and Evidence of Presence of Dragon King (DK) in Solar Wind

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gomes, T.; Ramos, F.; Rempel, E. L.; Silva, S.; C-L Chian, A.

2017-12-01

The solar wind constitutes a nonlinear dynamical system, presenting intermittent turbulence, multifractality and chaotic dynamics. One characteristic shared by many such complex systems is the presence of extreme events, that play an important role in several Geophysical phenomena and their statistical characterization is a problem of great practical relevance. This work investigates the presence of extreme events in time series of the modulus of the interplanetary magnetic field measured by Cluster spacecraft on February 2, 2002. One of the main results is that the solar wind near the Earth's bow shock can be modeled by the Generalized Pareto (GP) and Generalized Extreme Values (GEV) distributions. Both models present a statistically significant positive shape parameter which implyies a heavy tail in the probability distribution functions and an unbounded growth in return values as return periods become too long. There is evidence that current sheets are the main responsible for positive values of the shape parameter. It is also shown that magnetic reconnection at the interface between two interplanetary magnetic flux ropes in the solar wind can be considered as Dragon Kings (DK), a class of extreme events whose formation mechanisms are fundamentally different from others. As long as magnetic reconnection can be classified as a Dragon King, there is the possibility of its identification and even its prediction. Dragon kings had previously been identified in time series of financial crashes, nuclear power generation accidents, stock market and so on. It is believed that they are associated with the occurrence of extreme events in dynamical systems at phase transition, bifurcation, crises or tipping points.

The Total Ozone Series of Arosa: History, Homogenization and new results using statistical extreme value theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Staehelin, J.; Rieder, H. E.; Maeder, J. A.; Ribatet, M.; Davison, A. C.; Stübi, R.

2009-04-01

Atmospheric ozone protects the biota living at the Earth's surface from harmful solar UV-B and UV-C radiation. The global ozone shield is expected to gradually recover from the anthropogenic disturbance of ozone depleting substances (ODS) in the coming decades. The stratospheric ozone layer at extratropics might significantly increase above the thickness of the chemically undisturbed atmosphere which might enhance ozone concentrations at the tropopause altitude where ozone is an important greenhouse gas. At Arosa, a resort village in the Swiss Alps, total ozone measurements started in 1926 leading to the longest total ozone series of the world. One Fery spectrograph and seven Dobson spectrophotometers were operated at Arosa and the method used to homogenize the series will be presented. Due to its unique length the series allows studying total ozone in the chemically undisturbed as well as in the ODS loaded stratosphere. The series is particularly valuable to study natural variability in the period prior to 1970, when ODS started to affect stratospheric ozone. Concepts developed by extreme value statistics allow objective definitions of "ozone extreme high" and "ozone extreme low" values by fitting the (daily mean) time series using the Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD). Extreme high ozone events can be attributed to effects of ElNino and/or NAO, whereas in the chemically disturbed stratosphere high frequencies of extreme low total ozone values simultaneously occur with periods of strong polar ozone depletion (identified by statistical modeling with Equivalent Stratospheric Chlorine times Volume of Stratospheric Polar Clouds) and volcanic eruptions (such as El Chichon and Pinatubo).

Variability in winter climate and winter extremes reduces population growth of an alpine butterfly.

PubMed

Roland, Jens; Matter, Stephen F

2013-01-01

We examined the long-term, 15-year pattern of population change in a network of 21 Rocky Mountain populations of Parnassius smintheus butterflies in response to climatic variation. We found that winter values of the broadscale climate variable, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index, were a strong predictor of annual population growth, much more so than were endogenous biotic factors related to population density. The relationship between PDO and population growth was nonlinear. Populations declined in years with extreme winter PDO values, when there were either extremely warm or extremely cold sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific relative to that in the western Pacific. Results suggest that more variable winters, and more frequent extremely cold or warm winters, will result in more frequent decline of these populations, a pattern exacerbated by the trend for increasingly variable winters seen over the past century.

Validation of extremes within the Perfect-Predictor Experiment of the COST Action VALUE

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hertig, Elke; Maraun, Douglas; Wibig, Joanna; Vrac, Mathieu; Soares, Pedro; Bartholy, Judith; Pongracz, Rita; Mares, Ileana; Gutierrez, Jose Manuel; Casanueva, Ana; Alzbutas, Robertas

2016-04-01

Extreme events are of widespread concern due to their damaging consequences on natural and anthropogenic systems. From science to applications the statistical attributes of rare and infrequent occurrence and low probability become connected with the socio-economic aspect of strong impact. Specific end-user needs regarding information about extreme events depend on the type of application, but as a joining element there is always the request for easily accessible climate change information with a clear description of their uncertainties and limitations. Within the Perfect-Predictor Experiment of the COST Action VALUE extreme indices modelled from a wide range of downscaling methods are compared to reference indices calculated from observational data. The experiment uses reference data from a selection of 86 weather stations representative of the different climates in Europe. Results are presented for temperature and precipitation extremes and include aspects of the marginal distribution as well as spell-length related aspects.

Extremes in ecology: Avoiding the misleading effects of sampling variation in summary analyses

USGS Publications Warehouse

Link, W.A.; Sauer, J.R.

1996-01-01

Surveys such as the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) produce large collections of parameter estimates. One's natural inclination when confronted with lists of parameter estimates is to look for the extreme values: in the BBS, these correspond to the species that appear to have the greatest changes in population size through time. Unfortunately, extreme estimates are liable to correspond to the most poorly estimated parameters. Consequently, the most extreme parameters may not match up with the most extreme parameter estimates. The ranking of parameter values on the basis of their estimates are a difficult statistical problem. We use data from the BBS and simulations to illustrate the potential misleading effects of sampling variation in rankings of parameters. We describe empirical Bayes and constrained empirical Bayes procedures which provide partial solutions to the problem of ranking in the presence of sampling variation.

Power laws and extreme values in antibody repertoires

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boyer, Sebastien; Biswas, Dipanwita; Scaramozzino, Natale; Kumar, Ananda Soshee; Nizak, Clément; Rivoire, Olivier

2015-03-01

Evolution by natural selection involves the succession of three steps: mutations, selection and proliferation. We are interested in describing and characterizing the result of selection over a population of many variants. After selection, this population will be dominated by the few best variants, with highest propensity to be selected, or highest ``selectivity.'' We ask the following question: how is the selectivity of the best variants distributed in the population? Extreme value theory, which characterizes the extreme tail of probability distributions in terms of a few universality class, has been proposed to describe it. To test this proposition and identify the relevant universality class, we performed quantitative in vitro experimental selections of libraries of >105 antibodies using the technique of phage display. Data obtained by high-throughput sequencing allows us to fit the selectivity distribution over more than two decades. In most experiments, the results show a striking power law for the selectivity distribution of the top antibodies, consistent with extreme value theory.

Evaluation of the best fit distribution for partial duration series of daily rainfall in Madinah, western Saudi Arabia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alahmadi, F.; Rahman, N. A.; Abdulrazzak, M.

2014-09-01

Rainfall frequency analysis is an essential tool for the design of water related infrastructure. It can be used to predict future flood magnitudes for a given magnitude and frequency of extreme rainfall events. This study analyses the application of rainfall partial duration series (PDS) in the vast growing urban Madinah city located in the western part of Saudi Arabia. Different statistical distributions were applied (i.e. Normal, Log Normal, Extreme Value type I, Generalized Extreme Value, Pearson Type III, Log Pearson Type III) and their distribution parameters were estimated using L-moments methods. Also, different selection criteria models are applied, e.g. Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), Corrected Akaike Information Criterion (AICc), Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) and Anderson-Darling Criterion (ADC). The analysis indicated the advantage of Generalized Extreme Value as the best fit statistical distribution for Madinah partial duration daily rainfall series. The outcome of such an evaluation can contribute toward better design criteria for flood management, especially flood protection measures.

Variance analysis of forecasted streamflow maxima in a wet temperate climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Al Aamery, Nabil; Fox, James F.; Snyder, Mark; Chandramouli, Chandra V.

2018-05-01

Coupling global climate models, hydrologic models and extreme value analysis provides a method to forecast streamflow maxima, however the elusive variance structure of the results hinders confidence in application. Directly correcting the bias of forecasts using the relative change between forecast and control simulations has been shown to marginalize hydrologic uncertainty, reduce model bias, and remove systematic variance when predicting mean monthly and mean annual streamflow, prompting our investigation for maxima streamflow. We assess the variance structure of streamflow maxima using realizations of emission scenario, global climate model type and project phase, downscaling methods, bias correction, extreme value methods, and hydrologic model inputs and parameterization. Results show that the relative change of streamflow maxima was not dependent on systematic variance from the annual maxima versus peak over threshold method applied, albeit we stress that researchers strictly adhere to rules from extreme value theory when applying the peak over threshold method. Regardless of which method is applied, extreme value model fitting does add variance to the projection, and the variance is an increasing function of the return period. Unlike the relative change of mean streamflow, results show that the variance of the maxima's relative change was dependent on all climate model factors tested as well as hydrologic model inputs and calibration. Ensemble projections forecast an increase of streamflow maxima for 2050 with pronounced forecast standard error, including an increase of +30(±21), +38(±34) and +51(±85)% for 2, 20 and 100 year streamflow events for the wet temperate region studied. The variance of maxima projections was dominated by climate model factors and extreme value analyses.

Relationship between diffusion tensor fractional anisotropy and motor outcome in patients with hemiparesis after corona radiata infarct.

PubMed

Koyama, Tetsuo; Marumoto, Kohei; Miyake, Hiroji; Domen, Kazuhisa

2013-11-01

This study examined the relationship between fractional anisotropy (FA) values of magnetic resonance-diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) and motor outcome (1 month after onset) in 15 patients with hemiparesis after ischemic stroke of corona radiata lesions. DTI data were obtained on days 14-18. FA values within the cerebral peduncle were analyzed using a computer-automated method. Motor outcome of hemiparesis was evaluated according to Brunnstrom stage (BRS; 6-point scale: severe to normal) for separate shoulder/elbow/forearm, wrist/hand, and lower extremity functions. The ratio of FA values in the affected hemisphere to those in the unaffected hemisphere (rFA) was assessed in relation to the BRS data (Spearman rank correlation test, P<.05). rFA values ranged from .715 to 1.002 (median=.924). BRS ranged from 1 to 6 (median=4) for shoulder/elbow/forearm, from 1 to 6 (median=5) for wrist/hand, and from 2 to 6 (median=4) for the lower extremities. Analysis revealed statistically significant relationships between rFA and upper extremity functions (correlation coefficient=.679 for shoulder/elbow/forearm and .706 for wrist/hand). Although slightly less evident, the relationship between rFA and lower extremity function was also statistically significant (correlation coefficient=.641). FA values within the cerebral peduncle are moderately associated with the outcome of both upper and lower extremity functions, suggesting that DTI may be applicable for outcome prediction in stroke patients with corona radiata infarct. Copyright © 2013 National Stroke Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Nearly extremal apparent horizons in simulations of merging black holes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lovelace, Geoffrey; Scheel, Mark A.; Owen, Robert; Giesler, Matthew; Katebi, Reza; Szilágyi, Béla; Chu, Tony; Demos, Nicholas; Hemberger, Daniel A.; Kidder, Lawrence E.; Pfeiffer, Harald P.; Afshari, Nousha

2015-03-01

The spin angular momentum S of an isolated Kerr black hole is bounded by the surface area A of its apparent horizon: 8π S≤slant A, with equality for extremal black holes. In this paper, we explore the extremality of individual and common apparent horizons for merging, rapidly spinning binary black holes. We consider simulations of merging black holes with equal masses M and initial spin angular momenta aligned with the orbital angular momentum, including new simulations with spin magnitudes up to S/{{M}2}=0.994. We measure the area and (using approximate Killing vectors) the spin on the individual and common apparent horizons, finding that the inequality 8π S\\lt A is satisfied in all cases but is very close to equality on the common apparent horizon at the instant it first appears. We also evaluate the Booth-Fairhurst extremality, whose value for a given apparent horizon depends on the scaling of the horizon’s null normal vectors. In particular, we introduce a gauge-invariant lower bound on the extremality by computing the smallest value that Booth and Fairhurst’s extremality parameter can take for any scaling. Using this lower bound, we conclude that the common horizons are at least moderately close to extremal just after they appear. Finally, following Lovelace et al (2008 Phys. Rev. D 78 084017), we construct quasiequilibrium binary-black hole initial data with ‘overspun’ marginally trapped surfaces with 8π S\\gt A. We show that the overspun surfaces are indeed superextremal: our lower bound on their Booth-Fairhurst extremality exceeds unity. However, we confirm that these superextremal surfaces are always surrounded by marginally outer trapped surfaces (i.e., by apparent horizons) with 8π S\\lt A. The extremality lower bound on the enclosing apparent horizon is always less than unity but can exceed the value for an extremal Kerr black hole.

An Application of Extreme Value Theory to Learning Analytics: Predicting Collaboration Outcome from Eye-Tracking Data

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sharma, Kshitij; Chavez-Demoulin, Valérie; Dillenbourg, Pierre

2017-01-01

The statistics used in education research are based on central trends such as the mean or standard deviation, discarding outliers. This paper adopts another viewpoint that has emerged in statistics, called extreme value theory (EVT). EVT claims that the bulk of normal distribution is comprised mainly of uninteresting variations while the most…

Recent Pharmacology Studies on the International Space Station

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wotring, Virginia

2014-01-01

The environment on the International Space Station (ISS) includes a variety of potential stressors including the absence of Earth's gravity, elevated exposure to radiation, confined living and working quarters, a heavy workload, and high public visibility. The effects of this extreme environment on pharmacokinetics, pharmacodynamics, and even on stored medication doses, are not yet understood. Dr. Wotring will discuss recent analyses of medication doses that experienced long duration storage on the ISS and a recent retrospective examination of medication use during long-duration spaceflights. She will also describe new pharmacology experiments that are scheduled for upcoming ISS missions. Dr. Virginia E. Wotring is a Senior Scientist in the Division of Space Life Sciences in the Universities Space Research Association, and Pharmacology Discipline Lead at NASA's Johnson Space Center, Human Heath and Countermeasures Division. She received her doctorate in Pharmacological and Physiological Science from Saint Louis University after earning a B.S. in Chemistry at Florida State University. She has published multiple studies on ligand gated ion channels in the brain and spinal cord. Her research experience includes drug mechanisms of action, drug receptor structure/function relationships and gene & protein expression. She joined USRA (and spaceflight research) in 2009. In 2012, her book reviewing pharmacology in spaceflight was published by Springer: Space Pharmacology, Space Development Series.

Small scale heterogeneity of Phanerozoic lower crust: evidence from isotopic and geochemical systematics of mid-Cretaceous granulite gneisses, San Gabriel Mountains, southern California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Barth, A.P.; Wooden, J.L.; May, D.J.

1992-01-01

An elongate belt of mid-Cretaceous, compositionally banded gneisses and granulites is exposed in Cucamonga terrane, in the southeastern foothills of the San Gabriel Mountains of southern California. Banded gneisses include mafic granulites of two geochemical types: type 1 rocks are similar to high Al arc basalts and andesites but have higher HFSE (high-field-strength-element) abundances and extremely variable LILE (largeion-lithophile-element) abundances, while type 2 rocks are relatively low in Al and similar to alkali rich MOR (midocean-ridge) or intraplate basalts. Intercalated with mafic granulites are paragneisses which include felsic granulites, aluminous gneisses, marble, and calc-silicate gneisses. Type 1 mafic granulites and calcic trondhjemitic pegmatites also oceur as cross-cutting, synmetamorphic dikes or small plutons. Small-scale heterogeneity of deep continental crust is indicated by the lithologic and isotopic diversity of intercalated ortho-and paragneisses exposed in Cucamonga terrane. Geochemical and isotopic data indicate that K, Rb, and U depletion and Sm/Nd fractionation were associated with biotite +/- muscovite dehydration reactions in type 1 mafic granulites and aluminous gneisses during high-grade metamorphism. Field relations and model initial isotopic ratios imply a wide range of protolith ages, ranging from Early Proterozoic to Phanerozoic. ?? 1992 Springer-Verlag.

Sphene and zircon in the Highland Range volcanic sequence (Miocene, southern Nevada, USA): Elemental partitioning, phase relations, and influence on evolution of silicic magma

USGS Publications Warehouse

Colombini, L.L.; Miller, C.F.; Gualda, G.A.R.; Wooden, J.L.; Miller, J.S.

2011-01-01

Sphene is prominent in Miocene plutonic rocks ranging from diorite to granite in southern Nevada, USA, but it is restricted to rhyolites in coeval volcanic sequences. In the Highland Range volcanic sequence, sphene appears as a phenocryst only in the most evolved rocks (72-77 mass% SiO2; matrix glass 77-78 mass% SiO2). Zr-in-sphene temperatures of crystallization are mostly restricted to 715 and 755??C, in contrast to zircon (710-920??C, Ti-in-zircon thermometry). Sphene rim/glass Kds for rare earth elements are extremely high (La 120, Sm 1200, Gd 1300, Lu 240). Rare earth elements, especially the middle REE (MREE), decrease from centers to rims of sphene phenocrysts along with Zr, demonstrating the effect of progressive sphene fractionation. Whole rocks and glasses have MREE-depleted, U-shaped REE patterns as a consequence of sphene fractionation. Within the co-genetic, sphene-rich Searchlight pluton, only evolved leucogranites show comparable MREE depletion. These results indicate that sphene saturation in intruded and extruded magmas occurred only in highly evolved melts: abundant sphene in less silicic plutonic rocks represents a late-stage 'bloom' in fractionated interstitial melt. ?? 2011 Springer-Verlag.

Groundwater's significance to changing hydrology, water chemistry, and biological communities of a floodplain ecosystem, Everglades, South Florida, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Harvey, J.W.; McCormick, P.V.

2009-01-01

The Everglades (Florida, USA) is one of the world's larger subtropical peatlands with biological communities adapted to waters low in total dissolved solids and nutrients. Detecting how the pre-drainage hydrological system has been altered is crucial to preserving its functional attributes. However, reliable tools for hindcasting historic conditions in the Everglades are limited. A recent synthesis demonstrates that the proportion of surface-water inflows has increased relative to precipitation, accounting for 33% of total inputs compared with 18% historically. The largest new source of water is canal drainage from areas of former wetlands converted to agriculture. Interactions between groundwater and surface water have also increased, due to increasing vertical hydraulic gradients resulting from topographic and water-level alterations on the otherwise extremely flat landscape. Environmental solute tracer data were used to determine groundwater's changing role, from a freshwater storage reservoir that sustained the Everglades ecosystem during dry periods to a reservoir of increasingly degraded water quality. Although some of this degradation is attributable to increased discharge of deep saline groundwater, other mineral sources such as fertilizer additives and peat oxidation have made a greater contribution to water-quality changes that are altering mineral-sensitive biological communities. ?? Springer-Verlag 2008.

A comparison of observed extreme water levels at the German Bight elaborated through an extreme value analysis (EVA) with extremes derived from a regionally coupled ocean-atmospheric climate model (MPI-OM)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Möller, Jens; Heinrich, Hartmut

2017-04-01

As a consequence of climate change atmospheric and oceanographic extremes and their potential impacts on coastal regions are of growing concern for governmental authorities responsible for the transportation infrastructure. Highest risks for shipping as well as for rail and road traffic originate from combined effects of extremes of storm surges and heavy rainfall which sometimes lead to insufficient dewatering of inland waterways. The German Ministry of Transport and digital Infrastructure therefore has tasked its Network of Experts to investigate the possible evolutions of extreme threats for low lands and especially for Kiel Canal, which is an important shortcut for shipping between the North and Baltic Seas. In this study we present results of a comparison of an Extreme Value Analysis (EVA) carried out on gauge observations and values derived from a coupled Regional Ocean-Atmosphere Climate Model (MPI-OM). High water levels at the coasts of the North and Baltic Seas are one of the most important hazards which increase the risk of flooding of the low-lying land and prevents such areas from an adequate dewatering. In this study changes in the intensity (magnitude of the extremes) and duration of extreme water levels (above a selected threshold) are investigated for several gauge stations with data partly reaching back to 1843. Different methods are used for the extreme value statistics, (1) a stationary general Pareto distribution (GPD) model as well as (2) an instationary statistical model for better reproduction of the impact of climate change. Most gauge stations show an increase of the mean water level of about 1-2 mm/year, with a stronger increase of the highest water levels and a decrease (or lower increase) of the lowest water levels. Also, the duration of possible dewatering time intervals for the Kiel-Canal was analysed. The results for the historical gauge station observations are compared to the statistics of modelled water levels from the coupled atmosphere-ocean climate model MPI-OM for the time interval from 1951 to 2000. We demonstrate that for high water levels the observations and MPI-OM results are in good agreement, and we provide an estimate on the decreasing dewatering potential for Kiel Canal until the end of the 21st century.

76 FR 72902 - Emerging Technology and Research Advisory Committee; Notice of Partially Closed Meeting

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-11-28

... Controls on the conduct of U.S. science and technology activities in the United States. 2. Public Comments... serve basis. To join the conference, submit inquiries to Ms. Yvette Springer at [[Page 72903

Pruritus-Ani

MedlinePlus

... Dermatology and Pruritis Ani”. Chapter in Beck, D. E., Roberts, P. L., Saclarides, T. J., Senagore, A. J., Stamos, M. J., Wexner, S. D., Eds. ASCRS Textbook of Colon and Rectal Surgery, 2nd Edition. Springer, New York, NY; 2011. American Society of Colon ...

Survey of otitis externa in American Cocker Spaniels in Finland.

PubMed

Kaimio, Mirja; Saijonmaa-Koulumies, Leena; Laitinen-Vapaavuori, Outi

2017-02-28

American Cocker Spaniels are overrepresented among breeds that require surgery as a treatment of end-stage otitis externa. However, the prevalence of otitis externa (OE) in this breed remains unknown. We reviewed the year 2010 medical records of 55 private veterinary clinics in Finland to determine the prevalence of OE in American Cocker Spaniels compared with English Cocker and English and Welsh Springer Spaniels. An American Cocker Spaniel owner questionnaire was designed to identify potential risk factors for end-stage OE. From the medical records of 98,736 dogs, the prevalence of OE was highest in Welsh Springer Spaniels (149 out of 468, 31.8%, [95% confidence interval 27.6-36.0]), followed by American Cocker (89/329, 27.0%, [22.2-31.7]), English Springer (96/491, 19.6%, [16.1-23.1]) and English Cocker Spaniels (231/1467, 15.7%, [13.8-17.6]). The mean number of OE episodes in ear-diseased dogs and the number of ear surgeries were highest in American Cocker Spaniels. Owner questionnaires were received for 151 American Cocker Spaniels, 85 (56%) of which had suffered from OE. In 47% (40/85) of these dogs, OE occurred without concurrent skin lesions, 46% (33/72) displayed the first signs of OE before 1 year of age. In 24% (20/85) of the dogs, the signs of OE recurred within 1 month or continued despite treatment, 16% (14/85) required surgery (n = 11) or were euthanized (n = 5; 2 of the operated dogs and 3 others) due to severe OE. The onset of OE before the age of 1 year significantly increased the risk (OR 3.8, 95% CI 1.1-13.6) of end-stage OE. The prevalence of OE in American Cocker Spaniels in Finland was higher than previously reported in Cocker Spaniels, but the highest prevalence of OE was found in Welsh Springer Spaniels. Compared to the other Spaniels, OE was more often recurrent and more frequently surgically managed in American Cocker Spaniels. Based on the questionnaire, early onset (<1 year) of OE increased the risk of end-stage OE. In American Cocker Spaniels, OE requires an intensive approach from the first treatment, and prevention of recurrence should be emphasised. The causes and treatment of OE in this breed warrant further study.

Spatial variation of statistical properties of extreme water levels along the eastern Baltic Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pindsoo, Katri; Soomere, Tarmo; Rocha, Eugénio

2016-04-01

Most of existing projections of future extreme water levels rely on the use of classic generalised extreme value distributions. The choice to use a particular distribution is often made based on the absolute value of the shape parameter of the Generalise Extreme Value distribution. If this parameter is small, the Gumbel distribution is most appropriate while in the opposite case the Weibull or Frechet distribution could be used. We demonstrate that the alongshore variation in the statistical properties of numerically simulated high water levels along the eastern coast of the Baltic Sea is so large that the use of a single distribution for projections of extreme water levels is highly questionable. The analysis is based on two simulated data sets produced in the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute. The output of the Rossby Centre Ocean model is sampled with a resolution of 6 h and the output of the circulation model NEMO with a resolution of 1 h. As the maxima of water levels of subsequent years may be correlated in the Baltic Sea, we also employ maxima for stormy seasons. We provide a detailed analysis of spatial variation of the parameters of the family of extreme value distributions along an approximately 600 km long coastal section from the north-western shore of Latvia in the Baltic Proper until the eastern Gulf of Finland. The parameters are evaluated using maximum likelihood method and method of moments. The analysis also covers the entire Gulf of Riga. The core parameter of this family of distributions, the shape parameter of the Generalised Extreme Value distribution, exhibits extensive variation in the study area. Its values evaluated using the Hydrognomon software and maximum likelihood method, vary from about -0.1 near the north-western coast of Latvia in the Baltic Proper up to about 0.05 in the eastern Gulf of Finland. This parameter is very close to zero near Tallinn in the western Gulf of Finland. Thus, it is natural that the Gumbel distribution gives adequate projections of extreme water levels for the vicinity of Tallinn. More importantly, this feature indicates that the use of a single distribution for the projections of extreme water levels and their return periods for the entire Baltic Sea coast is inappropriate. The physical reason is the interplay of the complex shape of large subbasins (such as the Gulf of Riga and Gulf of Finland) of the sea and highly anisotropic wind regime. The 'impact' of this anisotropy on the statistics of water level is amplified by the overall anisotropy of the distributions of the frequency of occurrence of high and low water levels. The most important conjecture is that long-term behaviour of water level extremes in different coastal sections of the Baltic Sea may be fundamentally different.

Trends in 1970-2010 southern California surface maximum temperatures: extremes and heat waves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghebreegziabher, Amanuel T.

Daily maximum temperatures from 1970-2010 were obtained from the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) for 28 South Coast Air Basin (SoCAB) Cooperative Network (COOP) sites. Analyses were carried out on the entire data set, as well as on the 1970-1974 and 2006-2010 sub-periods, including construction of spatial distributions and time-series trends of both summer-average and annual-maximum values and of the frequency of two and four consecutive "daytime" heat wave events. Spatial patterns of average and extreme values showed three areas consistent with climatological SoCAB flow patterns: cold coastal, warm inland low-elevation, and cool further-inland mountain top. Difference (2006-2010 minus 1970-1974) distributions of both average and extreme-value trends were consistent with the shorter period (1970-2005) study of previous study, as they showed the expected inland regional warming and a "reverse-reaction" cooling in low elevation coastal and inland areas open to increasing sea breeze flows. Annual-extreme trends generally showed cooling at sites below 600 m and warming at higher elevations. As the warming trends of the extremes were larger than those of the averages, regional warming thus impacts extremes more than averages. Spatial distributions of hot-day frequencies showed expected maximum at inland low-elevation sites. Regional warming again thus induced increases at both elevated-coastal areas, but low-elevation areas showed reverse-reaction decreases.

Spatiotemporal changes in precipitation extremes over Yangtze River basin, China, considering the rainfall shift in the late 1970s

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, Tao; Xie, Lian

2016-12-01

Precipitation extremes are the dominated causes for the formation of severe flood disasters at regional and local scales under the background of global climate change. In the present study, five annual extreme precipitation events, including 1, 7 and 30 day annual maximum rainfall and 95th and 97.5th percentile threshold levels, are analyzed relating to the reference period 1960-2011 from 140 meteorological stations over Yangtze River basin (YRB). A generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution is applied to fit annual and percentile extreme precipitation events at each station with return periods up to 200 years. The entire time period is divided into preclimatic (preceding climatic) period 1960-1980 and aftclimatic (after climatic) period 1981-2011 by considering distinctly abrupt shift of precipitation regime in the late 1970s across YRB. And the Mann-Kendall trend test is adopted to conduct trend analysis during pre- and aftclimatic periods, respectively, for the purpose of exploring possible increasing/decreasing patterns in precipitation extremes. The results indicate that the increasing trends for return values during aftclimatic period change significantly in time and space in terms of different magnitudes of extreme precipitation, while the stations with significantly positive trends are mainly distributed in the vicinity of the mainstream and major tributaries as well as large lakes, this would result in more tremendous flood disasters in the mid-lower reaches of YRB, especially in southeast coastal regions. The increasing/decreasing linear trends based on annual maximum precipitation are also investigated in pre- and aftclimatic periods, respectively, whereas those changes are not significantly similar to the variations of return values during both subperiods. Moreover, spatiotemporal patterns of precipitation extremes become more uneven and unstable in the second half period over YRB.

The transformed-stationary approach: a generic and simplified methodology for non-stationary extreme value analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mentaschi, Lorenzo; Vousdoukas, Michalis; Voukouvalas, Evangelos; Sartini, Ludovica; Feyen, Luc; Besio, Giovanni; Alfieri, Lorenzo

2016-09-01

Statistical approaches to study extreme events require, by definition, long time series of data. In many scientific disciplines, these series are often subject to variations at different temporal scales that affect the frequency and intensity of their extremes. Therefore, the assumption of stationarity is violated and alternative methods to conventional stationary extreme value analysis (EVA) must be adopted. Using the example of environmental variables subject to climate change, in this study we introduce the transformed-stationary (TS) methodology for non-stationary EVA. This approach consists of (i) transforming a non-stationary time series into a stationary one, to which the stationary EVA theory can be applied, and (ii) reverse transforming the result into a non-stationary extreme value distribution. As a transformation, we propose and discuss a simple time-varying normalization of the signal and show that it enables a comprehensive formulation of non-stationary generalized extreme value (GEV) and generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) models with a constant shape parameter. A validation of the methodology is carried out on time series of significant wave height, residual water level, and river discharge, which show varying degrees of long-term and seasonal variability. The results from the proposed approach are comparable with the results from (a) a stationary EVA on quasi-stationary slices of non-stationary series and (b) the established method for non-stationary EVA. However, the proposed technique comes with advantages in both cases. For example, in contrast to (a), the proposed technique uses the whole time horizon of the series for the estimation of the extremes, allowing for a more accurate estimation of large return levels. Furthermore, with respect to (b), it decouples the detection of non-stationary patterns from the fitting of the extreme value distribution. As a result, the steps of the analysis are simplified and intermediate diagnostics are possible. In particular, the transformation can be carried out by means of simple statistical techniques such as low-pass filters based on the running mean and the standard deviation, and the fitting procedure is a stationary one with a few degrees of freedom and is easy to implement and control. An open-source MATLAB toolbox has been developed to cover this methodology, which is available at https://github.com/menta78/tsEva/ (Mentaschi et al., 2016).

Analyzing phenological extreme events over the past five decades in Germany

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schleip, Christoph; Menzel, Annette; Estrella, Nicole; Graeser, Philipp

2010-05-01

As climate change may alter the frequency and intensity of extreme temperatures, we analysed whether warming of the last 5 decades has already changed the statistics of phenological extreme events. In this context, two extreme value statistical concepts are discussed and applied to existing phenological datasets of German Weather Service (DWD) in order to derive probabilities of occurrence for extreme early or late phenological events. We analyse four phenological groups; "begin of flowering, "leaf foliation", "fruit ripening" and "leaf colouring" as well as DWD indicator phases of the "phenological year". Additionally we put an emphasis on a between-species analysis; a comparison of differences in extreme onsets between three common northern conifers. Furthermore we conducted a within-species analysis with different phases of horse chestnut throughout a year. The first statistical approach fits data to a Gaussian model using traditional statistical techniques, and then analyses the extreme quantile. The key point of this approach is the adoption of an appropriate probability density function (PDF) to the observed data and the assessment of the PDF parameters change in time. The full analytical description in terms of the estimated PDF for defined time steps of the observation period allows probability assessments of extreme values for e.g. annual or decadal time steps. Related with this approach is the possibility of counting out the onsets which fall in our defined extreme percentiles. The estimation of the probability of extreme events on the basis of the whole data set is in contrast to analyses with the generalized extreme value distribution (GEV). The second approach deals with the extreme PDFs itself and fits the GEV distribution to annual minima of phenological series to provide useful estimates about return levels. For flowering and leaf unfolding phases exceptionally early extremes are seen since the mid 1980s and especially for the single years 1961, 1990 and 2007 whereas exceptionally extreme late events are seen in the year 1970. Summer phases such as fruit ripening exhibit stronger shifts to early extremes than spring phases. Leaf colouring phases reveal increasing probability for late extremes. The with GEV estimated 100-year event of Picea, Pinus and Larix amount to extreme early events of about -27, -31.48 and -32.79 days, respectively. If we assume non-stationary minimum data we get a more extreme 100-year event of about -35.40 for Picea but associated with wider confidence intervals. The GEV is simply another probability distribution but for purposes of extreme analysis in phenology it should be considered as equally important as (if not more important than) the Gaussian PDF approach.

Extreme sea storm in the Mediterranean Sea. Trends during the 2nd half of the 20th century.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pino, C.; Lionello, P.; Galati, M. B.

2009-04-01

Extreme sea storm in the Mediterranean Sea. Trends during the 2nd half of the 20th century Piero Lionello, University of Salento, piero.lionello@unisalento.it Maria Barbara Galati, University of Salento, mariabarbara.galati@unisalento.it Cosimo Pino, University of Salento, pino@le.infn.it The analysis of extreme Significant Wave Height (SWH) values and their trend is crucial for planning and managing coastal defences and off-shore activities. The analysis provided by this study covers a 44-year long period (1958-2001). First the WW3 (Wave Watch 3) model forced with the REMO-Hipocas regional model wind fields has been used for the hindcast of extreme SWH values over the Mediterranean basin with a 0.25 deg lat-lon resolution. Subsequently, the model results have been processed with an ad hoc software to detect storms. GEV analysis has been perfomed and a set of indicators for extreme SWH have been computed, using the Mann Kendall test for assessing statistical significance of trends for different parameter such as the number of extreme events, their duration and their intensity. Results suggest a transition towards weaker extremes and a milder climate over most of the Mediterranean Sea.

Research in Stochastic Processes

DTIC Science & Technology

1988-08-31

stationary sequence, Stochastic Proc. Appl. 29, 1988, 155-169 T. Hsing, J. Husler and M.R. Leadbetter, On the exceedance point process for a stationary...Nandagopalan, On exceedance point processes for "regular" sample functions, Proc. Volume, Oberxolfach Conf. on Extreme Value Theory, J. Husler and R. Reiss...exceedance point processes for stationary sequences under mild oscillation restrictions, Apr. 88. Obermotfach Conf. on Extremal Value Theory. Ed. J. HUsler

A direct method for computing extreme value (Gumbel) parameters for gapped biological sequence alignments.

PubMed

Quinn, Terrance; Sinkala, Zachariah

2014-01-01

We develop a general method for computing extreme value distribution (Gumbel, 1958) parameters for gapped alignments. Our approach uses mixture distribution theory to obtain associated BLOSUM matrices for gapped alignments, which in turn are used for determining significance of gapped alignment scores for pairs of biological sequences. We compare our results with parameters already obtained in the literature.

Ensemble-based evaluation of extreme water levels for the eastern Baltic Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eelsalu, Maris; Soomere, Tarmo

2016-04-01

The risks and damages associated with coastal flooding that are naturally associated with an increase in the magnitude of extreme storm surges are one of the largest concerns of countries with extensive low-lying nearshore areas. The relevant risks are even more contrast for semi-enclosed water bodies such as the Baltic Sea where subtidal (weekly-scale) variations in the water volume of the sea substantially contribute to the water level and lead to large spreading of projections of future extreme water levels. We explore the options for using large ensembles of projections to more reliably evaluate return periods of extreme water levels. Single projections of the ensemble are constructed by means of fitting several sets of block maxima with various extreme value distributions. The ensemble is based on two simulated data sets produced in the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute. A hindcast by the Rossby Centre Ocean model is sampled with a resolution of 6 h and a similar hindcast by the circulation model NEMO with a resolution of 1 h. As the annual maxima of water levels in the Baltic Sea are not always uncorrelated, we employ maxima for calendar years and for stormy seasons. As the shape parameter of the Generalised Extreme Value distribution changes its sign and substantially varies in magnitude along the eastern coast of the Baltic Sea, the use of a single distribution for the entire coast is inappropriate. The ensemble involves projections based on the Generalised Extreme Value, Gumbel and Weibull distributions. The parameters of these distributions are evaluated using three different ways: maximum likelihood method and method of moments based on both biased and unbiased estimates. The total number of projections in the ensemble is 40. As some of the resulting estimates contain limited additional information, the members of pairs of projections that are highly correlated are assigned weights 0.6. A comparison of the ensemble-based projection of extreme water levels and their return periods with similar estimates derived from local observations reveals an interesting pattern of match and mismatch. The match is almost perfect in measurement sites where local effects (e.g., wave-induced set-up or local surge in very shallow areas that are not resolved by circulation models) do not contribute to the observed values of water level. There is, however, substantial mismatch between projected and observed extreme values for most of the Estonian coast. The mismatch is largest for sections that are open to high waves and for several bays that are deeply cut into mainland but open for predominant strong wind directions. Detailed quantification of this mismatch eventually makes it possible to develop substantially improved estimates of extreme water levels in sections where local effects considerably contribute into the total water level.

A Theoretical Model Analysis of Absorption of a Three level Diode Pumped Alkali Laser

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-03-01

2.10) 103 Bibliography Demtroder, Wolfgang . Laser Spectroscopy: Basic Concepts and Instrumentation. Berlin: Springer...Konefal Z., “Observation of collision induced processes in rubidium-ethane vapour,” Optics Communication, 164:95-105 (1999). Krause , L

Extreme ultraviolet index due to broken clouds at a midlatitude site, Granada (southeastern Spain)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Antón, M.; Piedehierro, A. A.; Alados-Arboledas, L.; Wolfran, E.; Olmo, F. J.

2012-11-01

Cloud cover usually attenuates the ultraviolet (UV) solar radiation but, under certain sky conditions, the clouds may produce an enhancement effect increasing the UV levels at surface. The main objective of this paper is to analyze an extreme UV enhancement episode recorded on 16 June 2009 at Granada (southeastern Spain). This phenomenon was characterized by a quick and intense increase in surface UV radiation under broken cloud fields (5-7 oktas) in which the Sun was surrounded by cumulus clouds (confirmed with sky images). Thus, the UV index (UVI) showed an enhancement of a factor 4 in the course of only 30 min around midday, varying from 2.6 to 10.4 (higher than the corresponding clear-sky UVI value). Additionally, the UVI presented values higher than 10 (extreme erythemal risk) for about 20 min running, with a maximum value around 11.5. The use of an empirical model and the total ozone column (TOC) derived from the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment (GOME) for the period 1995-2011 showed that the value of UVI ~ 11.5 is substantially larger than the highest index that could origin the natural TOC variations over Granada. Finally, the UV erythemal dose accumulated during the period of 20 min with the extreme UVI values under broken cloud fields was 350 J/m2 which surpass the energy required to produce sunburn of the most human skin types.

Isokinetic profile of elbow flexion and extension strength in elite junior tennis players.

PubMed

Ellenbecker, Todd S; Roetert, E Paul

2003-02-01

Descriptive study. To determine whether bilateral differences exist in concentric elbow flexion and extension strength in elite junior tennis players. The repetitive nature of tennis frequently produces upper extremity overuse injuries. Prior research has identified tennis-specific strength adaptation in the dominant shoulder and distal upper extremity musculature of elite players. No previous study has addressed elbow flexion and extension strength. Thirty-eight elite junior tennis players were bilaterally tested for concentric elbow flexion and extension muscle performance on a Cybex 6000 isokinetic dynamometer at 90 degrees/s, 210 degrees/s, and 300 degrees/s. Repeated-measures ANOVAs were used to test for differences between extremities, muscle groups, and speed. Significantly greater (P<0.002) dominant-arm elbow extension peak torque values were measured at 90 degrees/s, 210 degrees/s, and 300 degrees/s for males. Significantly greater (P<0.002) dominant-arm single-repetition work values were also measured at 90 degrees/s and 210 degrees/s for males. No significant difference was measured between extremities in elbow flexion muscular performance in males and for elbow flexion or extension peak torque and single-repetition work values in females. No significant difference between extremities was measured in elbow flexion/extension strength ratios in females and significant differences between extremities in this ratio were only present at 210 degrees/s in males (P<0.002). These data indicate muscular adaptations around the dominant elbow in male elite junior tennis players but not females. These data have ramifications for clinicians rehabilitating upper extremity injuries in patients from this population.

Climatic extremes improve predictions of spatial patterns of tree species

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zimmermann, N.E.; Yoccoz, N.G.; Edwards, T.C.; Meier, E.S.; Thuiller, W.; Guisan, Antoine; Schmatz, D.R.; Pearman, P.B.

2009-01-01

Understanding niche evolution, dynamics, and the response of species to climate change requires knowledge of the determinants of the environmental niche and species range limits. Mean values of climatic variables are often used in such analyses. In contrast, the increasing frequency of climate extremes suggests the importance of understanding their additional influence on range limits. Here, we assess how measures representing climate extremes (i.e., interannual variability in climate parameters) explain and predict spatial patterns of 11 tree species in Switzerland. We find clear, although comparably small, improvement (+20% in adjusted D2, +8% and +3% in cross-validated True Skill Statistic and area under the receiver operating characteristics curve values) in models that use measures of extremes in addition to means. The primary effect of including information on climate extremes is a correction of local overprediction and underprediction. Our results demonstrate that measures of climate extremes are important for understanding the climatic limits of tree species and assessing species niche characteristics. The inclusion of climate variability likely will improve models of species range limits under future conditions, where changes in mean climate and increased variability are expected.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ghosh, Subimal; Das, Debasish; Kao, Shih-Chieh

Recent studies disagree on how rainfall extremes over India have changed in space and time over the past half century, as well as on whether the changes observed are due to global warming or regional urbanization. Although a uniform and consistent decrease in moderate rainfall has been reported, a lack of agreement about trends in heavy rainfall may be due in part to differences in the characterization and spatial averaging of extremes. Here we use extreme value theory to examine trends in Indian rainfall over the past half century in the context of long-term, low-frequency variability.We show that when generalizedmore » extreme value theory is applied to annual maximum rainfall over India, no statistically significant spatially uniform trends are observed, in agreement with previous studies using different approaches. Furthermore, our space time regression analysis of the return levels points to increasing spatial variability of rainfall extremes over India. Our findings highlight the need for systematic examination of global versus regional drivers of trends in Indian rainfall extremes, and may help to inform flood hazard preparedness and water resource management in the region.« less

Sequences of extremal radially excited rotating black holes.

PubMed

Blázquez-Salcedo, Jose Luis; Kunz, Jutta; Navarro-Lérida, Francisco; Radu, Eugen

2014-01-10

In the Einstein-Maxwell-Chern-Simons theory the extremal Reissner-Nordström solution is no longer the single extremal solution with vanishing angular momentum, when the Chern-Simons coupling constant reaches a critical value. Instead a whole sequence of rotating extremal J=0 solutions arises, labeled by the node number of the magnetic U(1) potential. Associated with the same near horizon solution, the mass of these radially excited extremal solutions converges to the mass of the extremal Reissner-Nordström solution. On the other hand, not all near horizon solutions are also realized as global solutions.

Suitability of the isolated chicken eye test for classification of extreme pH detergents and cleaning products.

PubMed

Cazelle, Elodie; Eskes, Chantra; Hermann, Martina; Jones, Penny; McNamee, Pauline; Prinsen, Menk; Taylor, Hannah; Wijnands, Marcel V W

2015-04-01

A.I.S.E. investigated the suitability of the regulatory adopted ICE in vitro test method (OECD TG 438) with or without histopathology to identify detergent and cleaning formulations having extreme pH that require classification as EU CLP/UN GHS Category 1. To this aim, 18 extreme pH detergent and cleaning formulations were tested covering both alkaline and acidic extreme pHs. The ICE standard test method following OECD Test Guideline 438 showed good concordance with in vivo classification (83%) and good and balanced specificity and sensitivity values (83%) which are in line with the performances of currently adopted in vitro test guidelines, confirming its suitability to identify Category 1 extreme pH detergent and cleaning products. In contrast to previous findings obtained with non-extreme pH formulations, the use of histopathology did not improve the sensitivity of the assay whilst it strongly decreased its specificity for the extreme pH formulations. Furthermore, use of non-testing prediction rules for classification showed poor concordance values (33% for the extreme pH rule and 61% for the EU CLP additivity approach) with high rates of over-prediction (100% for the extreme pH rule and 50% for the additivity approach), indicating that these non-testing prediction rules are not suitable to predict Category 1 hazards of extreme pH detergent and cleaning formulations. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Long-term statistics of extreme tsunami height at Crescent City

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dong, Sheng; Zhai, Jinjin; Tao, Shanshan

2017-06-01

Historically, Crescent City is one of the most vulnerable communities impacted by tsunamis along the west coast of the United States, largely attributed to its offshore geography. Trans-ocean tsunamis usually produce large wave runup at Crescent Harbor resulting in catastrophic damages, property loss and human death. How to determine the return values of tsunami height using relatively short-term observation data is of great significance to assess the tsunami hazards and improve engineering design along the coast of Crescent City. In the present study, the extreme tsunami heights observed along the coast of Crescent City from 1938 to 2015 are fitted using six different probabilistic distributions, namely, the Gumbel distribution, the Weibull distribution, the maximum entropy distribution, the lognormal distribution, the generalized extreme value distribution and the generalized Pareto distribution. The maximum likelihood method is applied to estimate the parameters of all above distributions. Both Kolmogorov-Smirnov test and root mean square error method are utilized for goodness-of-fit test and the better fitting distribution is selected. Assuming that the occurrence frequency of tsunami in each year follows the Poisson distribution, the Poisson compound extreme value distribution can be used to fit the annual maximum tsunami amplitude, and then the point and interval estimations of return tsunami heights are calculated for structural design. The results show that the Poisson compound extreme value distribution fits tsunami heights very well and is suitable to determine the return tsunami heights for coastal disaster prevention.

Extreme geomagnetically induced currents

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kataoka, Ryuho; Ngwira, Chigomezyo

2016-12-01

We propose an emergency alert framework for geomagnetically induced currents (GICs), based on the empirically extreme values and theoretical upper limits of the solar wind parameters and of d B/d t, the time derivative of magnetic field variations at ground. We expect this framework to be useful for preparing against extreme events. Our analysis is based on a review of various papers, including those presented during Extreme Space Weather Workshops held in Japan in 2011, 2012, 2013, and 2014. Large-amplitude d B/d t values are the major cause of hazards associated with three different types of GICs: (1) slow d B/d t with ring current evolution (RC-type), (2) fast d B/d t associated with auroral electrojet activity (AE-type), and (3) transient d B/d t of sudden commencements (SC-type). We set "caution," "warning," and "emergency" alert levels during the main phase of superstorms with the peak Dst index of less than -300 nT (once per 10 years), -600 nT (once per 60 years), or -900 nT (once per 100 years), respectively. The extreme d B/d t values of the AE-type GICs are 2000, 4000, and 6000 nT/min at caution, warning, and emergency levels, respectively. For the SC-type GICs, a "transient alert" is also proposed for d B/d t values of 40 nT/s at low latitudes and 110 nT/s at high latitudes, especially when the solar energetic particle flux is unusually high.

Improving power and robustness for detecting genetic association with extreme-value sampling design.

PubMed

Chen, Hua Yun; Li, Mingyao

2011-12-01

Extreme-value sampling design that samples subjects with extremely large or small quantitative trait values is commonly used in genetic association studies. Samples in such designs are often treated as "cases" and "controls" and analyzed using logistic regression. Such a case-control analysis ignores the potential dose-response relationship between the quantitative trait and the underlying trait locus and thus may lead to loss of power in detecting genetic association. An alternative approach to analyzing such data is to model the dose-response relationship by a linear regression model. However, parameter estimation from this model can be biased, which may lead to inflated type I errors. We propose a robust and efficient approach that takes into consideration of both the biased sampling design and the potential dose-response relationship. Extensive simulations demonstrate that the proposed method is more powerful than the traditional logistic regression analysis and is more robust than the linear regression analysis. We applied our method to the analysis of a candidate gene association study on high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) which includes study subjects with extremely high or low HDL-C levels. Using our method, we identified several SNPs showing a stronger evidence of association with HDL-C than the traditional case-control logistic regression analysis. Our results suggest that it is important to appropriately model the quantitative traits and to adjust for the biased sampling when dose-response relationship exists in extreme-value sampling designs. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Absolute continuity for operator valued completely positive maps on C∗-algebras

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gheondea, Aurelian; Kavruk, Ali Şamil

2009-02-01

Motivated by applicability to quantum operations, quantum information, and quantum probability, we investigate the notion of absolute continuity for operator valued completely positive maps on C∗-algebras, previously introduced by Parthasarathy [in Athens Conference on Applied Probability and Time Series Analysis I (Springer-Verlag, Berlin, 1996), pp. 34-54]. We obtain an intrinsic definition of absolute continuity, we show that the Lebesgue decomposition defined by Parthasarathy is the maximal one among all other Lebesgue-type decompositions and that this maximal Lebesgue decomposition does not depend on the jointly dominating completely positive map, we obtain more flexible formulas for calculating the maximal Lebesgue decomposition, and we point out the nonuniqueness of the Lebesgue decomposition as well as a sufficient condition for uniqueness. In addition, we consider Radon-Nikodym derivatives for absolutely continuous completely positive maps that, in general, are unbounded positive self-adjoint operators affiliated to a certain von Neumann algebra, and we obtain a spectral approximation by bounded Radon-Nikodym derivatives. An application to the existence of the infimum of two completely positive maps is indicated, and formulas in terms of Choi's matrices for the Lebesgue decomposition of completely positive maps in matrix algebras are obtained.

Decadal oscillations and extreme value distribution of river peak flows in the Meuse catchment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

De Niel, Jan; Willems, Patrick

2017-04-01

In flood risk management, flood probabilities are often quantified through Generalized Pareto distributions of river peak flows. One of the main underlying assumptions is that all data points need to originate from one single underlying distribution (i.i.d. assumption). However, this hypothesis, although generally assumed to be correct for variables such as river peak flows, remains somehow questionable: flooding might indeed be caused by different hydrological and/or meteorological conditions. This study confirms these findings from previous research by showing a clear indication of the link between atmospheric conditions and flooding for the Meuse river in The Netherlands: decadal oscillations of river peak flows can (at least partially) be attributed to the occurrence of westerly weather types. The study further proposes a method to take this correlation between atmospheric conditions and river peak flows into account when calibrating an extreme value distribution for river peak flows. Rather than calibrating one single distribution to the data and potentially violating the i.i.d. assumption, weather type depending extreme value distributions are derived and composed. The study shows that, for the Meuse river in The Netherlands, such approach results in a more accurate extreme value distribution, especially with regards to extrapolations. Comparison of the proposed method with a traditional extreme value analysis approach and an alternative model-based approach for the same case study shows strong differences in the peak flow extrapolation. The design-flood for a 1,250 year return period is estimated at 4,800 m3s-1 for the proposed method, compared with 3,450 m3s-1 and 3,900 m3s-1 for the traditional method and a previous study. The methods were validated based on instrumental and documentary flood information of the past 500 years.

I know why you voted for Trump: (Over)inferring motives based on choice.

PubMed

Barasz, Kate; Kim, Tami; Evangelidis, Ioannis

2018-05-10

People often speculate about why others make the choices they do. This paper investigates how such inferences are formed as a function of what is chosen. Specifically, when observers encounter someone else's choice (e.g., of political candidate), they use the chosen option's attribute values (e.g., a candidate's specific stance on a policy issue) to infer the importance of that attribute (e.g., the policy issue) to the decision-maker. Consequently, when a chosen option has an attribute whose value is extreme (e.g., an extreme policy stance), observers infer-sometimes incorrectly-that this attribute disproportionately motivated the decision-maker's choice. Seven studies demonstrate how observers use an attribute's value to infer its weight-the value-weight heuristic-and identify the role of perceived diagnosticity: more extreme attribute values give observers the subjective sense that they know more about a decision-maker's preferences, and in turn, increase the attribute's perceived importance. The paper explores how this heuristic can produce erroneous inferences and influence broader beliefs about decision-makers. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Isotopic evidence for continental ice sheet in mid-latitude region in the supergreenhouse Early Cretaceous

PubMed Central

Yang, Wu-Bin; Niu, He-Cai; Sun, Wei-Dong; Shan, Qiang; Zheng, Yong-Fei; Li, Ning-Bo; Li, Cong-Ying; Arndt, Nicholas T.; Xu, Xing; Jiang, Yu-Hang; Yu, Xue-Yuan

2013-01-01

Cretaceous represents one of the hottest greenhouse periods in the Earth's history, but some recent studies suggest that small ice caps might be present in non-polar regions during certain periods in the Early Cretaceous. Here we report extremely negative δ18O values of −18.12‰ to −13.19‰ for early Aptian hydrothermal zircon from an A-type granite at Baerzhe in northeastern China. Given that A-type granite is anhydrous and that magmatic zircon of the Baerzhe granite has δ18O value close to mantle values, the extremely negative δ18O values for hydrothermal zircon are attributed to addition of meteoric water with extremely low δ18O, mostly likely transported by glaciers. Considering the paleoaltitude of the region, continental glaciation is suggested to occur in the early Aptian, indicating much larger temperature fluctuations than previously thought during the supergreenhouse Cretaceous. This may have impact on the evolution of major organism in the Jehol Group during this period. PMID:24061068

Inter-model variability in hydrological extremes projections for Amazonian sub-basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andres Rodriguez, Daniel; Garofolo, Lucas; Lázaro de Siqueira Júnior, José; Samprogna Mohor, Guilherme; Tomasella, Javier

2014-05-01

Irreducible uncertainties due to knowledge's limitations, chaotic nature of climate system and human decision-making process drive uncertainties in Climate Change projections. Such uncertainties affect the impact studies, mainly when associated to extreme events, and difficult the decision-making process aimed at mitigation and adaptation. However, these uncertainties allow the possibility to develop exploratory analyses on system's vulnerability to different sceneries. The use of different climate model's projections allows to aboard uncertainties issues allowing the use of multiple runs to explore a wide range of potential impacts and its implications for potential vulnerabilities. Statistical approaches for analyses of extreme values are usually based on stationarity assumptions. However, nonstationarity is relevant at the time scales considered for extreme value analyses and could have great implications in dynamic complex systems, mainly under climate change transformations. Because this, it is required to consider the nonstationarity in the statistical distribution parameters. We carried out a study of the dispersion in hydrological extremes projections using climate change projections from several climate models to feed the Distributed Hydrological Model of the National Institute for Spatial Research, MHD-INPE, applied in Amazonian sub-basins. This model is a large-scale hydrological model that uses a TopModel approach to solve runoff generation processes at the grid-cell scale. MHD-INPE model was calibrated for 1970-1990 using observed meteorological data and comparing observed and simulated discharges by using several performance coeficients. Hydrological Model integrations were performed for present historical time (1970-1990) and for future period (2010-2100). Because climate models simulate the variability of the climate system in statistical terms rather than reproduce the historical behavior of climate variables, the performances of the model's runs during the historical period, when feed with climate model data, were tested using descriptors of the Flow Duration Curves. The analyses of projected extreme values were carried out considering the nonstationarity of the GEV distribution parameters and compared with extremes events in present time. Results show inter-model variability in a broad dispersion on projected extreme's values. Such dispersion implies different degrees of socio-economic impacts associated to extreme hydrological events. Despite the no existence of one optimum result, this variability allows the analyses of adaptation strategies and its potential vulnerabilities.

A new framework for estimating return levels using regional frequency analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winter, Hugo; Bernardara, Pietro; Clegg, Georgina

2017-04-01

We propose a new framework for incorporating more spatial and temporal information into the estimation of extreme return levels. Currently, most studies use extreme value models applied to data from a single site; an approach which is inefficient statistically and leads to return level estimates that are less physically realistic. We aim to highlight the benefits that could be obtained by using methodology based upon regional frequency analysis as opposed to classic single site extreme value analysis. This motivates a shift in thinking, which permits the evaluation of local and regional effects and makes use of the wide variety of data that are now available on high temporal and spatial resolutions. The recent winter storms over the UK during the winters of 2013-14 and 2015-16, which have caused wide-ranging disruption and damaged important infrastructure, provide the main motivation for the current work. One of the most impactful natural hazards is flooding, which is often initiated by extreme precipitation. In this presentation, we focus on extreme rainfall, but shall discuss other meteorological variables alongside potentially damaging hazard combinations. To understand the risks posed by extreme precipitation, we need reliable statistical models which can be used to estimate quantities such as the T-year return level, i.e. the level which is expected to be exceeded once every T-years. Extreme value theory provides the main collection of statistical models that can be used to estimate the risks posed by extreme precipitation events. Broadly, at a single site, a statistical model is fitted to exceedances of a high threshold and the model is used to extrapolate to levels beyond the range of the observed data. However, when we have data at many sites over a spatial domain, fitting a separate model for each separate site makes little sense and it would be better if we could incorporate all this information to improve the reliability of return level estimates. Here, we use the regional frequency analysis approach to define homogeneous regions which are affected by the same storms. Extreme value models are then fitted to the data pooled from across a region. We find that this approach leads to more spatially consistent return level estimates with reduced uncertainty bounds.

Springer - Encylcopedia of Immigrant Health (EIH)

EPA Science Inventory

The following description is based on the section of the EIH that is devoted to pesticides: Exposure to chemical pesticides occurs via 3 major pathways of exposure, i.e., inhalation, ingestion (dietary and non dietary) and dermal. Health response varies among individuals and is l...

76 FR 76937 - Emerging Technology and Research Advisory Committee; Notice of Partially Closed Meeting-Room Change

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-12-09

... of Export Controls on the conduct of U.S. science and technology activities in the United States. 2... come, first serve basis. To join the conference, submit inquiries to Ms. Yvette Springer at Yvette...

Compiling with Types

DTIC Science & Technology

1995-12-01

ogy and Theoretical Computer Science 1993, Bombay, New York, 1993. Springer-Verlag. Extended abstract. [17] E. Biagioni . Sequence types for functional...FOX-95-06. [18] E. Biagioni , R. Harper, P. Lee, and B. Milnes. Signatures for a network protocol stack: A systems application of Standard ML. In ACM

78 FR 55075 - Radio Broadcasting Services; AM or FM Proposals To Change the Community of License

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-09-09

...., Station NEW, Facility ID 191511, BNPH- 20130724AGJ, From TAOS PUEBLO, NM, To SPRINGER, NM; GALAXY SYRACUSE LICENSEE LLC, Station WKRH, Facility ID 56996, BPH-20130708ABZ, From MINETTO, NY, To FAIR HAVEN, NY; GALAXY...

Microstructure-Sensitive Extreme Value Probabilities for High Cycle Fatigue of Ni-Base Superalloy IN100 (Preprint)

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-03-01

transition fatigue regimes; however, microplasticity (i.e., heterogeneous plasticity at the scale of microstructure) is relevant to understanding fatigue...and Socie [57] considered the affect of microplastic 14 Microstructure-Sensitive Extreme Value Probabilities for High Cycle Fatigue of Ni-Base...considers the local stress state as affected by intergranular interactions and microplasticity . For the calculations given below, the volumes over which

Modeling annual extreme temperature using generalized extreme value distribution: A case study in Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hasan, Husna; Salam, Norfatin; Kassim, Suraiya

2013-04-01

Extreme temperature of several stations in Malaysia is modeled by fitting the annual maximum to the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution. The Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) and Phillips Perron (PP) tests are used to detect stochastic trends among the stations. The Mann-Kendall (MK) test suggests a non-stationary model. Three models are considered for stations with trend and the Likelihood Ratio test is used to determine the best-fitting model. The results show that Subang and Bayan Lepas stations favour a model which is linear for the location parameters while Kota Kinabalu and Sibu stations are suitable with a model in the logarithm of the scale parameters. The return level is the level of events (maximum temperature) which is expected to be exceeded once, on average, in a given number of years, is obtained.

Spatial extreme value analysis to project extremes of large-scale indicators for severe weather

PubMed Central

Gilleland, Eric; Brown, Barbara G; Ammann, Caspar M

2013-01-01

Concurrently high values of the maximum potential wind speed of updrafts (Wmax) and 0–6 km wind shear (Shear) have been found to represent conducive environments for severe weather, which subsequently provides a way to study severe weather in future climates. Here, we employ a model for the product of these variables (WmSh) from the National Center for Atmospheric Research/United States National Center for Environmental Prediction reanalysis over North America conditioned on their having extreme energy in the spatial field in order to project the predominant spatial patterns of WmSh. The approach is based on the Heffernan and Tawn conditional extreme value model. Results suggest that this technique estimates the spatial behavior of WmSh well, which allows for exploring possible changes in the patterns over time. While the model enables a method for inferring the uncertainty in the patterns, such analysis is difficult with the currently available inference approach. A variation of the method is also explored to investigate how this type of model might be used to qualitatively understand how the spatial patterns of WmSh correspond to extreme river flow events. A case study for river flows from three rivers in northwestern Tennessee is studied, and it is found that advection of WmSh from the Gulf of Mexico prevails while elsewhere, WmSh is generally very low during such extreme events. © 2013 The Authors. Environmetrics published by JohnWiley & Sons, Ltd. PMID:24223482

Surface atmospheric extremes (Launch and transportation areas)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1972-01-01

The effects of extreme values of surface and low altitude atmospheric parameters on space vehicle design, tests, and operations are discussed. Atmospheric extremes from the surface to 150 meters for geographic locations of interest to NASA are given. Thermal parameters (temperature and solar radiation), humidity, pressure, and atmospheric electricity (lighting and static) are presented. Weather charts and tables are included.

Applications and Implications of Fractional Dynamics for Dielectric Relaxation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hilfer, R.

This article summarizes briefly the presentation given by the author at the NATO Advanced Research Workshop on "Broadband Dielectric Spectroscopy and its Advanced Technological Applications", held in Perpignan, France, in September 2011. The purpose of the invited presentation at the workshop was to review and summarize the basic theory of fractional dynamics (Hilfer, Phys Rev E 48:2466, 1993; Hilfer and Anton, Phys Rev E Rapid Commun 51:R848, 1995; Hilfer, Fractals 3(1):211, 1995; Hilfer, Chaos Solitons Fractals 5:1475, 1995; Hilfer, Fractals 3:549, 1995; Hilfer, Physica A 221:89, 1995; Hilfer, On fractional diffusion and its relation with continuous time random walks. In: Pekalski et al. (eds) Anomalous diffusion: from basis to applications. Springer, Berlin, p 77, 1999; Hilfer, Fractional evolution equations and irreversibility. In: Helbing et al. (eds) Traffic and granular flow'99. Springer, Berlin, p 215, 2000; Hilfer, Fractional time evolution. In: Hilfer (ed) Applications of fractional calculus in physics. World Scientific, Singapore, p 87, 2000; Hilfer, Remarks on fractional time. In: Castell and Ischebeck (eds) Time, quantum and information. Springer, Berlin, p 235, 2003; Hilfer, Physica A 329:35, 2003; Hilfer, Threefold introduction to fractional derivatives. In: Klages et al. (eds) Anomalous transport: foundations and applications. Wiley-VCH, Weinheim, pp 17-74, 2008; Hilfer, Foundations of fractional dynamics: a short account. In: Klafter et al. (eds) Fractional dynamics: recent advances. World Scientific, Singapore, p 207, 2011) and demonstrate its relevance and application to broadband dielectric spectroscopy (Hilfer, J Phys Condens Matter 14:2297, 2002; Hilfer, Chem Phys 284:399, 2002; Hilfer, Fractals 11:251, 2003; Hilfer et al., Fractional Calc Appl Anal 12:299, 2009). It was argued, that broadband dielectric spectroscopy might be useful to test effective field theories based on fractional dynamics.

Global Weirding? - Using Very Large Ensembles and Extreme Value Theory to assess Changes in Extreme Weather Events Today

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Otto, F. E. L.; Mitchell, D.; Sippel, S.; Black, M. T.; Dittus, A. J.; Harrington, L. J.; Mohd Saleh, N. H.

2014-12-01

A shift in the distribution of socially-relevant climate variables such as daily minimum winter temperatures and daily precipitation extremes, has been attributed to anthropogenic climate change for various mid-latitude regions. However, while there are many process-based arguments suggesting also a change in the shape of these distributions, attribution studies demonstrating this have not currently been undertaken. Here we use a very large initial condition ensemble of ~40,000 members simulating the European winter 2013/2014 using the distributed computing infrastructure under the weather@home project. Two separate scenarios are used:1. current climate conditions, and 2. a counterfactual scenario of "world that might have been" without anthropogenic forcing. Specifically focusing on extreme events, we assess how the estimated parameters of the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution vary depending on variable-type, sampling frequency (daily, monthly, …) and geographical region. We find that the location parameter changes for most variables but, depending on the region and variables, we also find significant changes in scale and shape parameters. The very large ensemble allows, furthermore, to assess whether such findings in the fitted GEV distributions are consistent with an empirical analysis of the model data, and whether the most extreme data still follow a known underlying distribution that in a small sample size might otherwise be thought of as an out-lier. The ~40,000 member ensemble is simulated using 12 different SST patterns (1 'observed', and 11 best guesses of SSTs with no anthropogenic warming). The range in SSTs, along with the corresponding changings in the NAO and high-latitude blocking inform on the dynamics governing some of these extreme events. While strong tele-connection patterns are not found in this particular experiment, the high number of simulated extreme events allows for a more thorough analysis of the dynamics than has been performed before. Therefore, combining extreme value theory with very large ensemble simulations allows us to understand the dynamics of changes in extreme events which is not possible just using the former but also shows in which cases statistics combined with smaller ensembles give as valid results as very large initial conditions.

[The value of lidocaine through different routes of administration in the treatment of tinnitus: a Meta-analysis].

PubMed

Li, Hui; Li, Ming; Zhang, Jianning; Li, Xiangcui; Tan, Junying; Ji, Bobo

2016-01-01

To evaluate the clinical value of lidocain in the treatment of tinnitus through three routes of administration (intravenous, intratympanic and acupoint injection) by analyzing literatures. Articles were collected through Hownet, Wanfang, VIP, Pubmed, SciVerse ScienceDirect, Springer and OVID, etc. The articles were strictly evaluated based on their quality. The Meta-analysis was performed to evaluate the outcomes by RevMan 5. 2 software. A total of 16 articles with 1203 patients were enrolled in the analysis. Their tinnitus history ranged from 7 hours to 20 years. Assessment methods include tinnitus loudness levels, severity scales and subjective feelings. None of articles refer to maintaining time, instead of "short-term", "short" and so on. A total of 133 cases received intravenous injection and the effective rate was 73.4% (98 cases). 50 cases and 332 cases received intratympanic and acupoint injection respectively and their effective rates were 74.0% and 87.7%, respectively. The effective rate ranged from 42.4% to 58.3% in control group. Meta-analysis results indicate that all three routes of lidocaine administrations are more effective than conventional methods (P < 0.05). Different routes of lidocaine administration have a good but short time effects on the tinnitus control. It can effectively reduce the time of tinnitus habituation as a complementary treatment. But its value still needs further evaluation.

Quantifying uncertainties in wind energy assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Patlakas, Platon; Galanis, George; Kallos, George

2015-04-01

The constant rise of wind energy production and the subsequent penetration in global energy markets during the last decades resulted in new sites selection with various types of problems. Such problems arise due to the variability and the uncertainty of wind speed. The study of the wind speed distribution lower and upper tail may support the quantification of these uncertainties. Such approaches focused on extreme wind conditions or periods below the energy production threshold are necessary for a better management of operations. Towards this direction, different methodologies are presented for the credible evaluation of potential non-frequent/extreme values for these environmental conditions. The approaches used, take into consideration the structural design of the wind turbines according to their lifespan, the turbine failures, the time needed for repairing as well as the energy production distribution. In this work, a multi-parametric approach for studying extreme wind speed values will be discussed based on tools of Extreme Value Theory. In particular, the study is focused on extreme wind speed return periods and the persistence of no energy production based on a weather modeling system/hind cast/10-year dataset. More specifically, two methods (Annual Maxima and Peaks Over Threshold) were used for the estimation of extreme wind speeds and their recurrence intervals. Additionally, two different methodologies (intensity given duration and duration given intensity, both based on Annual Maxima method) were implied to calculate the extreme events duration, combined with their intensity as well as the event frequency. The obtained results prove that the proposed approaches converge, at least on the main findings, for each case. It is also remarkable that, despite the moderate wind speed climate of the area, several consequent days of no energy production are observed.

Database Translator (DATALATOR) for Integrated Exploitation

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-10-31

Modelling in Information Systems Engineering. 2007, Berlin : Springer, pp. 39-58. 2. Arnon Rosenthal, Len Seligman . Pragmatics and Open Problems for Inter...2004, Vol. 2938 . 21. Ahuja, S., N. Carriero and D. Gelemte,. Linda and friends. IEEE Computer. August 1986, pp. 26- 32. 40 Next Generation Software

Formal Verification of Quasi-Synchronous Systems

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-07-01

pg. 215-226, Springer-Verlag: London, UK, 2001. [4] Nicolas Halbwachs and Louis Mandel, Simulation and Verification of Asynchronous Systems by...Huang, S. A. Smolka, W. Tan , and S. Tripakis, Deep Random Search for Efficient Model Checking of Timed Automata, in Proceedings of the 13th Monterey

Full Text Journal Subscriptions: An Evolutionary Process.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Luther, Judy

1997-01-01

Provides an overview of companies offering Web accessible subscriptions to full text electronic versions of scientific, technical, and medical journals (Academic Press, Blackwell, EBSCO, Elsevier, Highwire Press, Information Quest, Institute of Physics, Johns Hopkins University Press, OCLC, OVID, Springer, and SWETS). Also lists guidelines for…

Discovery of Sound in the Sea 2015 Annual Report

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-09-30

Harvard University Medical School, and Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution), and Arthur N. Popper (University of Maryland). MAI and GSO make all...on Aquatic Life (Arthur N. Popper and Anthony Hawkins, eds.). Springer, New York. Vigness-Raposa, K.J., Scowcroft, G., Knowlton, C., and Worcester

On the Computer Generation of Adaptive Numerical Libraries

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-05-01

D.; Borowski, P.; Clark, T.; Clerc, D.; Dachsel, H.; Deegan , M.; Dyall, K.; Elwood, D.; Bibliography 123 Glendening, E.; Gutowski, M.; Hess, A...Science, pages 72–83. Springer, 2007. 84 Curry, Haskell B.; Feys, Robert; Craig , William. Combinatory Logic, volume 1. North-Holland Publishing

Correction to: Apatinib: A Review in Advanced Gastric Cancer and Other Advanced Cancers.

PubMed

Scott, Lesley J

2018-05-04

An Online First version of this article was made available online at http://link.springer.com/journal/40265/onlineFirst/page/1 on 16 April 2018. Errors were subsequently identified in the article, and the following corrections should be noted.

Tri-Level Optimization Algorithms for Solving Defender-Attacker-Defender Network Models

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-06-01

ed.). New York: Springer. Brimberg, J., Hansen, P., Lin, K., Mladenović, N., & Breton, M. (2003). An Oil Pipeline Design Problem. Operations...H. (2012). Critical infrastructure protection: The vulnerability conundrum. Telematics and informatics , 29(1), 56–65. Retrieved from http

Filtrations on Springer fiber cohomology and Kostka polynomials

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bellamy, Gwyn; Schedler, Travis

2018-03-01

We prove a conjecture which expresses the bigraded Poisson-de Rham homology of the nilpotent cone of a semisimple Lie algebra in terms of the generalized (one-variable) Kostka polynomials, via a formula suggested by Lusztig. This allows us to construct a canonical family of filtrations on the flag variety cohomology, and hence on irreducible representations of the Weyl group, whose Hilbert series are given by the generalized Kostka polynomials. We deduce consequences for the cohomology of all Springer fibers. In particular, this computes the grading on the zeroth Poisson homology of all classical finite W-algebras, as well as the filtration on the zeroth Hochschild homology of all quantum finite W-algebras, and we generalize to all homology degrees. As a consequence, we deduce a conjecture of Proudfoot on symplectic duality, relating in type A the Poisson homology of Slodowy slices to the intersection cohomology of nilpotent orbit closures. In the last section, we give an analogue of our main theorem in the setting of mirabolic D-modules.

Primary seborrhoea in English springer spaniels: a retrospective study of 14 cases.

PubMed

Scott, D W; Miller, W H

1996-04-01

Primary seborrhoea was diagnosed in 14 English springer spaniels over a 17-year period. Seven of the dogs developed clinical signs by two years of age. The dermatosis began as a generalised non-pruritic dry scaling which gradually worsened. Some dogs remained in this dry (seborrhoea sicca) stage, but in most cases the dermatosis became greasy and inflamed (seborrhoea oleosa and seborrhoeic dermatitis). Eight of the dogs suffered from recurrent episodes of superficial or deep bacterial pyoderma. Histological findings in skin biopsy specimens included marked orthokeratotic hyperkeratosis of surface and infundibular epithelium, papillomatosis, parakeratotic capping of the papillae, and superficial perivascular dermatitis in which lymphocytes and mast cells were prominent. The dogs with seborrhoea sicca responded more satisfactorily to therapy with topical emollient-humectant agents or oral omega-3/omega-6 fatty acid supplementation. Dogs with seborrhoea oleosa and seborrhoeic dermatitis did not respond satisfactorily to topical therapy. One dog, however, responded well to etretinate and omega-3/omega-6 fatty acid administration. No dog was cured.

Two-Dimensional Anisotropic Random Walks: Fixed Versus Random Column Configurations for Transport Phenomena

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Csáki, Endre; Csörgő, Miklós; Földes, Antónia; Révész, Pál

2018-04-01

We consider random walks on the square lattice of the plane along the lines of Heyde (J Stat Phys 27:721-730, 1982, Stochastic processes, Springer, New York, 1993) and den Hollander (J Stat Phys 75:891-918, 1994), whose studies have in part been inspired by the so-called transport phenomena of statistical physics. Two-dimensional anisotropic random walks with anisotropic density conditions á la Heyde (J Stat Phys 27:721-730, 1982, Stochastic processes, Springer, New York, 1993) yield fixed column configurations and nearest-neighbour random walks in a random environment on the square lattice of the plane as in den Hollander (J Stat Phys 75:891-918, 1994) result in random column configurations. In both cases we conclude simultaneous weak Donsker and strong Strassen type invariance principles in terms of appropriately constructed anisotropic Brownian motions on the plane, with self-contained proofs in both cases. The style of presentation throughout will be that of a semi-expository survey of related results in a historical context.

A taxonomic index, with names of descriptive authorities of termite genera and species: An accompaniment to Biology of Termites: A Modern Synthesis (Bignell DE, Roisin Y, Lo N, Editors. 2011. Springer, Dordrecht. 576 pp.)

PubMed Central

Bignell, D. E.; Jones, D. T.

2014-01-01

Abstract Biology of Termites: A Modern Synthesis (Bignell DE, Roisin Y, Lo N, (Editors), Springer, Dordrecht, 576pp, ISBN 978-90-481-3976-7, e-ISBN 978-90-481-3977-4, DOI 10.1007/978-90-481-3977-4) was published in 2011. With the agreement of the publishers, we give a taxonomic index of the book comprising 494 termite entries, 103 entries of other multicellular animal species mentioned as associates or predators of termites, with 9 fungal, 60 protist, and 64 prokaryote identities, which are listed as termite symbionts ( sensu stricto ). In addition, we add descriptive authorities for living (and some fossil) termite genera and species. Higher taxonomic groupings for termites are indicated by 25 code numbers. Microorganisms (prokaryotes, protists, and fungi) are listed separately, using broad modern taxonomic affiliations from the contemporary literature of bacteriology, protozoology, and mycology. PMID:25368037

Two-Dimensional Anisotropic Random Walks: Fixed Versus Random Column Configurations for Transport Phenomena

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Csáki, Endre; Csörgő, Miklós; Földes, Antónia; Révész, Pál

2018-06-01

We consider random walks on the square lattice of the plane along the lines of Heyde (J Stat Phys 27:721-730, 1982, Stochastic processes, Springer, New York, 1993) and den Hollander (J Stat Phys 75:891-918, 1994), whose studies have in part been inspired by the so-called transport phenomena of statistical physics. Two-dimensional anisotropic random walks with anisotropic density conditions á la Heyde (J Stat Phys 27:721-730, 1982, Stochastic processes, Springer, New York, 1993) yield fixed column configurations and nearest-neighbour random walks in a random environment on the square lattice of the plane as in den Hollander (J Stat Phys 75:891-918, 1994) result in random column configurations. In both cases we conclude simultaneous weak Donsker and strong Strassen type invariance principles in terms of appropriately constructed anisotropic Brownian motions on the plane, with self-contained proofs in both cases. The style of presentation throughout will be that of a semi-expository survey of related results in a historical context.

Combination of radar and daily precipitation data to estimate meaningful sub-daily point precipitation extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bárdossy, András; Pegram, Geoffrey

2017-01-01

The use of radar measurements for the space time estimation of precipitation has for many decades been a central topic in hydro-meteorology. In this paper we are interested specifically in daily and sub-daily extreme values of precipitation at gauged or ungauged locations which are important for design. The purpose of the paper is to develop a methodology to combine daily precipitation observations and radar measurements to estimate sub-daily extremes at point locations. Radar data corrected using precipitation-reflectivity relationships lead to biased estimations of extremes. Different possibilities of correcting systematic errors using the daily observations are investigated. Observed gauged daily amounts are interpolated to unsampled points and subsequently disaggregated using the sub-daily values obtained by the radar. Different corrections based on the spatial variability and the subdaily entropy of scaled rainfall distributions are used to provide unbiased corrections of short duration extremes. Additionally a statistical procedure not based on a matching day by day correction is tested. In this last procedure as we are only interested in rare extremes, low to medium values of rainfall depth were neglected leaving a small number of L days of ranked daily maxima in each set per year, whose sum typically comprises about 50% of each annual rainfall total. The sum of these L day maxima is first iterpolated using a Kriging procedure. Subsequently this sum is disaggregated to daily values using a nearest neighbour procedure. The daily sums are then disaggregated by using the relative values of the biggest L radar based days. Of course, the timings of radar and gauge maxima can be different, so the method presented here uses radar for disaggregating daily gauge totals down to 15 min intervals in order to extract the maxima of sub-hourly through to daily rainfall. The methodologies were tested in South Africa, where an S-band radar operated relatively continuously at Bethlehem from 1998 to 2003, whose scan at 1.5 km above ground [CAPPI] overlapped a dense (10 km spacing) set of 45 pluviometers recording in the same 6-year period. This valuable set of data was obtained from each of 37 selected radar pixels [1 km square in plan] which contained a pluviometer not masked out by the radar foot-print. The pluviometer data were also aggregated to daily totals, for the same purpose. The extremes obtained using disaggregation methods were compared to the observed extremes in a cross validation procedure. The unusual and novel goal was not to obtain the reproduction of the precipitation matching in space and time, but to obtain frequency distributions of the point extremes, which we found to be stable.

Pituitary, gonadal and adrenal hormones after prolonged residence at extreme altitude in man.

PubMed

Basu, M; Pal, K; Prasad, R; Malhotra, A S; Rao, K S; Sawhney, R C

1997-06-01

High altitude-induced alterations in pituitary, gonadal and adrenal hormones were studied in (i) eugonadal men from the armed forces who were resident at sea level (SL), (ii) SL residents staying at an altitude of 3542 m for periods ranging from 3 to 12 months (acclimatized lowlanders, ALL), (iii) ALL who stayed at 6300 m for 6 months, (iv) ALL who trekked from 3542 to 5080 m and stayed at an altitude of more than 6300 m in the glacier region for 6 months, and (v) high-altitude natives (HAN) resident at an altitude of 3300-3700 m. Circulating levels of LH, FSH, prolactin, cortisol, testosterone, dihydrotestosterone (DHT) and progesterone in ALL at 3542 m and in HAN were not significantly different (p > 0.05) from the SL control values. When the ALL living at 3542 m trekked to an extreme altitude of 5080 m, their testosterone levels showed a significant decrease (p < 0.01) compared to the preceding altitude values but had returned to SL values when measured after 6 months' continuous stay at 6300 m. As with testosterone, the levels of DHT and oestradiol-17 beta (E2) after prolonged stay at extreme altitude were also not significantly different (p > 0.05) from the SL values. The LH levels after trekking to 5080 m were significantly higher (p < 0.01) than at an altitude of 3542 m, but decreased to levels found at 3542 m or SL after prolonged residence at extreme altitude. Plasma levels of ACTH, prolactin, FSH and cortisol on arrival at 5080 m, and after a 6-month stay at extreme altitude, were not significantly different (p > 0.05) from the SL values. Plasma progesterone levels tended to increase on arrival at 5080 m but a significant increase (p < 0.001) was evident only after a 6-month stay at extreme altitude. These observations suggest that prolonged residence at lower as well as at extreme altitude does not appreciably alter blood levels of pituitary, gonadal or adrenal hormones except for plasma levels of progesterone. The exact mechanism and significance of this increase remains unknown, but may be important in increasing the sensitivity of the hypoxic ventilatory response and activation of haemoglobin synthesis.

Extreme values and fat tails of multifractal fluctuations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muzy, J. F.; Bacry, E.; Kozhemyak, A.

2006-06-01

In this paper we discuss the problem of the estimation of extreme event occurrence probability for data drawn from some multifractal process. We also study the heavy (power-law) tail behavior of probability density function associated with such data. We show that because of strong correlations, the standard extreme value approach is not valid and classical tail exponent estimators should be interpreted cautiously. Extreme statistics associated with multifractal random processes turn out to be characterized by non-self-averaging properties. Our considerations rely upon some analogy between random multiplicative cascades and the physics of disordered systems and also on recent mathematical results about the so-called multifractal formalism. Applied to financial time series, our findings allow us to propose an unified framework that accounts for the observed multiscaling properties of return fluctuations, the volatility clustering phenomenon and the observed “inverse cubic law” of the return pdf tails.

Probability distribution of extreme share returns in Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zin, Wan Zawiah Wan; Safari, Muhammad Aslam Mohd; Jaaman, Saiful Hafizah; Yie, Wendy Ling Shin

2014-09-01

The objective of this study is to investigate the suitable probability distribution to model the extreme share returns in Malaysia. To achieve this, weekly and monthly maximum daily share returns are derived from share prices data obtained from Bursa Malaysia over the period of 2000 to 2012. The study starts with summary statistics of the data which will provide a clue on the likely candidates for the best fitting distribution. Next, the suitability of six extreme value distributions, namely the Gumbel, Generalized Extreme Value (GEV), Generalized Logistic (GLO) and Generalized Pareto (GPA), the Lognormal (GNO) and the Pearson (PE3) distributions are evaluated. The method of L-moments is used in parameter estimation. Based on several goodness of fit tests and L-moment diagram test, the Generalized Pareto distribution and the Pearson distribution are found to be the best fitted distribution to represent the weekly and monthly maximum share returns in Malaysia stock market during the studied period, respectively.

[The informative value of the functional step test for the purpose of computed optical topography in the children presenting with the functional disorders of the musculoskeletal system].

PubMed

Trukhmanov, I M; Suslova, G A; Ponomarenko, G N

This paper is devoted to the characteristic of the informative value of the functional step test with the application of the heel cushions in the children for the purpose of differential diagnostics of anatomic and functional differences in the length of the lower extremities. A total of 85 schoolchildren with different length of the lower extremities have been examined. The comparative evaluation of the results of clinical and instrumental examinations was undertaken. The data obtained with the help of the functional step test give evidence of its very high sensitivity, specificity, and clinical significant as a tool for the examination of the children with different length of the low extremities. It is concluded that the test is one of the most informative predictors of the effectiveness of rehabilitation in the children with different length of the lower extremities.

Extreme value laws for fractal intensity functions in dynamical systems: Minkowski analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mantica, Giorgio; Perotti, Luca

2016-09-01

Typically, in the dynamical theory of extremal events, the function that gauges the intensity of a phenomenon is assumed to be convex and maximal, or singular, at a single, or at most a finite collection of points in phase-space. In this paper we generalize this situation to fractal landscapes, i.e. intensity functions characterized by an uncountable set of singularities, located on a Cantor set. This reveals the dynamical rôle of classical quantities like the Minkowski dimension and content, whose definition we extend to account for singular continuous invariant measures. We also introduce the concept of extremely rare event, quantified by non-standard Minkowski constants and we study its consequences to extreme value statistics. Limit laws are derived from formal calculations and are verified by numerical experiments. Dedicated to the memory of Joseph Ford, on the twentieth anniversary of his departure.

A dependence modelling study of extreme rainfall in Madeira Island

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gouveia-Reis, Délia; Guerreiro Lopes, Luiz; Mendonça, Sandra

2016-08-01

The dependence between variables plays a central role in multivariate extremes. In this paper, spatial dependence of Madeira Island's rainfall data is addressed within an extreme value copula approach through an analysis of maximum annual data. The impact of altitude, slope orientation, distance between rain gauge stations and distance from the stations to the sea are investigated for two different periods of time. The results obtained highlight the influence of the island's complex topography on the spatial distribution of extreme rainfall in Madeira Island.

Items New to the Collection - Betty Petersen Memorial Library

Science.gov Websites

Symbolic-numeric Methods. Springer Verlag. Ambaum MHP. 2010. Thermal physics of the atmosphere. Hoboken ; Boston, Mass.: American Meteorological Society. Tarantola A. 1987. Inverse Problem Theory Methods for Wiley & Sons. Wilks DS. 2010. Statistical methods in the atmospheric sciences. Amsterdam: Elsevier

Management of Library Associations Section. Management and Technology Division. Papers.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

International Federation of Library Associations, The Hague (Netherlands).

Papers on the management of library associations, which were presented at the 1983 International Federation of Library Associations (IFLA) conference, include: (1) "The Management of Library Associations: Publishing--A Third World Perspective," in which Pearl Springer (Trinidad and Tobago) outlines the importance of publishing in…

On the Geometry of Visual Correspondence

DTIC Science & Technology

1994-07-01

from point and line matches. In Proc. International Conference on Computer Vision, pages 25-34, 1987. [11] 0. Faugeras and S. Maybank . Motion from...image. Proceed- ings of the Royal Society, London B, 208:385-397, 1980. (23] S. Maybank . Theory of Reconstruction from Image Motion. Springer, Berlin

Nonlinear Stochastic Markov Processes and Modeling Uncertainty in Populations

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-07-06

219–232. [26] I. Karatzas and S.E. Shreve, Brownian Motion and Stochastic Calculus, Second Edition, Springer, New York, 1991. [27] F. Klebaner...ubiquitous in mathematics and physics (e.g., particle transport, filtering), biology (population models), finance (e.g., Black-Scholes equations) among other

Differential Game Logic for Hybrid Games

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-03-01

André Platzer. Logics of dynamical systems (invited tutorial). In LICS [DBL12]. [PP03] Marc Pauly and Rohit Parikh. Game logic - an overview...hybrid games. Theor. Comput. Sci., 412(48):6770–6785, 2011. [Wal98] Wolfgang Walter. Ordinary Differential Equations. Springer, 1998. 18 A Proof of Scott

Sound Speed and Attenuation in Multiphase Media

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-03-15

wave speeds between 100 to 300 m/s for sandy sediments with porosities of 40-50%. Hastrup [21:121-127] reports empirical relationships that 12...4, pp. 689-692, 1955. [20] R.D. Stoll, Sediment Acoustics, Springer-Verlag, New York, 1989. [21] O. F. Hastrup , Acoustic Bottom Reflectivity

Readings in Professional Personnel Assessment.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

International Personnel Management Association, Washington, DC.

Thirteen papers are presented that discuss issues in public personnel decision making, specifically in the area of personnel selection. After an introduction by James P. Springer, the following papers are presented: (1) "History of Employment Testing" (Matthew Hale); (2) "Job Families: A Review and Discussion of Their Implications for Personnel…

A New Approach to Extreme Value Estimation Applicable to a Wide Variety of Random Variables

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Holland, Frederic A., Jr.

1997-01-01

Designing reliable structures requires an estimate of the maximum and minimum values (i.e., strength and load) that may be encountered in service. Yet designs based on very extreme values (to insure safety) can result in extra material usage and hence, uneconomic systems. In aerospace applications, severe over-design cannot be tolerated making it almost mandatory to design closer to the assumed limits of the design random variables. The issue then is predicting extreme values that are practical, i.e. neither too conservative or non-conservative. Obtaining design values by employing safety factors is well known to often result in overly conservative designs and. Safety factor values have historically been selected rather arbitrarily, often lacking a sound rational basis. To answer the question of how safe a design needs to be has lead design theorists to probabilistic and statistical methods. The so-called three-sigma approach is one such method and has been described as the first step in utilizing information about the data dispersion. However, this method is based on the assumption that the random variable is dispersed symmetrically about the mean and is essentially limited to normally distributed random variables. Use of this method can therefore result in unsafe or overly conservative design allowables if the common assumption of normality is incorrect.

Impacts of Model Bias on the Climate Change Signal and Effects of Weighted Ensembles of Regional Climate Model Simulations: A Case Study over Southern Québec, Canada

DOE PAGES

Eum, Hyung-Il; Gachon, Philippe; Laprise, René

2016-01-01

This study examined the impact of model biases on climate change signals for daily precipitation and for minimum and maximum temperatures. Through the use of multiple climate scenarios from 12 regional climate model simulations, the ensemble mean, and three synthetic simulations generated by a weighting procedure, we investigated intermodel seasonal climate change signals between current and future periods, for both median and extreme precipitation/temperature values. A significant dependence of seasonal climate change signals on the model biases over southern Québec in Canada was detected for temperatures, but not for precipitation. This suggests that the regional temperature change signal is affectedmore » by local processes. Seasonally, model bias affects future mean and extreme values in winter and summer. In addition, potentially large increases in future extremes of temperature and precipitation values were projected. For three synthetic scenarios, systematically less bias and a narrow range of mean change for all variables were projected compared to those of climate model simulations. In addition, synthetic scenarios were found to better capture the spatial variability of extreme cold temperatures than the ensemble mean scenario. Finally, these results indicate that the synthetic scenarios have greater potential to reduce the uncertainty of future climate projections and capture the spatial variability of extreme climate events.« less

Impacts of Model Bias on the Climate Change Signal and Effects of Weighted Ensembles of Regional Climate Model Simulations: A Case Study over Southern Québec, Canada

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Eum, Hyung-Il; Gachon, Philippe; Laprise, René

This study examined the impact of model biases on climate change signals for daily precipitation and for minimum and maximum temperatures. Through the use of multiple climate scenarios from 12 regional climate model simulations, the ensemble mean, and three synthetic simulations generated by a weighting procedure, we investigated intermodel seasonal climate change signals between current and future periods, for both median and extreme precipitation/temperature values. A significant dependence of seasonal climate change signals on the model biases over southern Québec in Canada was detected for temperatures, but not for precipitation. This suggests that the regional temperature change signal is affectedmore » by local processes. Seasonally, model bias affects future mean and extreme values in winter and summer. In addition, potentially large increases in future extremes of temperature and precipitation values were projected. For three synthetic scenarios, systematically less bias and a narrow range of mean change for all variables were projected compared to those of climate model simulations. In addition, synthetic scenarios were found to better capture the spatial variability of extreme cold temperatures than the ensemble mean scenario. Finally, these results indicate that the synthetic scenarios have greater potential to reduce the uncertainty of future climate projections and capture the spatial variability of extreme climate events.« less

400 Years of summer hydroclimate from stable isotopes in Iberian trees

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andreu-Hayles, Laia; Ummenhofer, Caroline C.; Barriendos, Mariano; Schleser, Gerhard H.; Helle, Gerhard; Leuenberger, Markus; Gutiérrez, Emilia; Cook, Edward R.

2017-07-01

Tree rings are natural archives that annually record distinct types of past climate variability depending on the parameters measured. Here, we use ring-width and stable isotopes in cellulose of trees from the northwestern Iberian Peninsula (IP) to understand regional summer hydroclimate over the last 400 years and the associated atmospheric patterns. Correlations between tree rings and climate data demonstrate that isotope signatures in the targeted Iberian pine forests are very sensitive to water availability during the summer period, and are mainly controlled by stomatal conductance. Non-linear methods based on extreme events analysis allow for capturing distinct seasonal climatic variability recorded by tree-ring parameters and asymmetric signals of the associated atmospheric features. Moreover, years with extreme high (low) values in the tree-ring records were characterised by coherent large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns with reduced (enhanced) moisture transport onto the northwestern IP. These analyses of extremes revealed that high/low proxy values do not necessarily correspond to mirror images in the atmospheric anomaly patterns, suggesting different drivers of these patterns and the corresponding signature recorded in the proxies. Regional hydroclimate features across the broader IP and western Europe during extreme wet/dry summers detected by the northwestern IP trees compare favourably to independent multicentury sea level pressure and drought reconstructions for Europe. Historical records also validate our findings that attribute non-linear moisture signals recorded by extreme tree-ring values to distinct large-scale atmospheric patterns and allow for 400-year reconstructions of the frequency of occurrence of extreme conditions in late spring and summer hydroclimate.

400 years of summer hydroclimate from stable isotopes in Iberian trees

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andreu-Hayles, Laia; Ummenhofer, Caroline C.; Barriendos, Mariano; Schleser, Gerhard H.; Helle, Gerhard; Leuenberger, Markus; Gutierrez, Emilia; Cook, Edward R.

2017-04-01

Tree rings are natural archives that annually record distinct types of past climate variability depending on the parameters measured. Here, we use ring-width and stable isotopes in cellulose of trees from the northwestern Iberian Peninsula (IP) to understand regional summer hydroclimate over the last 400 years and the associated atmospheric patterns. Correlations between tree rings and climate data demonstrate that isotope signatures in the targeted Iberian pine forests are very sensitive to water availability during the summer period, and are mainly controlled by stomatal conductance. Non-linear methods based on extreme events analysis allow for capturing distinct seasonal climatic variability recorded by tree-ring parameters and asymmetric signals of the associated atmospheric features. Moreover, years with extreme high (low) values in the tree-ring records were characterised by coherent large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns with reduced (enhanced) moisture transport onto the northwestern IP. These analyses of extremes revealed that high/low proxy values do not necessarily correspond to mirror images in the atmospheric anomaly patterns, suggesting different drivers of these patterns and the corresponding signature recorded in the proxies. Regional hydroclimate features across the broader IP and western Europe during extreme wet/dry summers detected by the northwestern IP trees compare favourably to an independent multicentury sea level pressure and drought reconstruction for Europe. Historical records also validate our findings that attribute non-linear moisture signals recorded by extreme tree-ring values to distinct large-scale atmospheric patterns and allow for 400-yr reconstructions of the frequency of occurrence of extreme conditions in summer hydroclimate. We will discuss how the results for Lillo compare with other records.

Analysis and modeling of extreme temperatures in several cities in northwestern Mexico under climate change conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

García-Cueto, O. Rafael; Cavazos, M. Tereza; de Grau, Pamela; Santillán-Soto, Néstor

2014-04-01

The generalized extreme value distribution is applied in this article to model the statistical behavior of the maximum and minimum temperature distribution tails in four cities of Baja California in northwestern Mexico, using data from 1950-2010. The approach used of the maximum of annual time blocks. Temporal trends were included as covariates in the location parameter (μ), which resulted in significant improvements to the proposed models, particularly for the extreme maximum temperature values in the cities of Mexicali, Tijuana, and Tecate, and the extreme minimum temperature values in Mexicali and Ensenada. These models were used to estimate future probabilities over the next 100 years (2015-2110) for different time periods, and they were compared with changes in the extreme (P90th and P10th) percentiles of maximum and minimum temperature scenarios for a set of six general circulation models under low (RCP4.5) and high (RCP8.5) radiative forcings. By the end of the twenty-first century, the scenarios of the changes in extreme maximum summer temperature are of the same order in both the statistical model and the high radiative scenario (increases of 4-5 °C). The low radiative scenario is more conservative (increases of 2-3 °C). The winter scenario shows that minimum temperatures could be less severe; the temperature increases suggested by the probabilistic model are greater than those projected for the end of the century by the set of global models under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The likely impacts on the region are discussed.

Extreme Mean and Its Applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Swaroop, R.; Brownlow, J. D.

1979-01-01

Extreme value statistics obtained from normally distributed data are considered. An extreme mean is defined as the mean of p-th probability truncated normal distribution. An unbiased estimate of this extreme mean and its large sample distribution are derived. The distribution of this estimate even for very large samples is found to be nonnormal. Further, as the sample size increases, the variance of the unbiased estimate converges to the Cramer-Rao lower bound. The computer program used to obtain the density and distribution functions of the standardized unbiased estimate, and the confidence intervals of the extreme mean for any data are included for ready application. An example is included to demonstrate the usefulness of extreme mean application.

Simulation-Based Extreme Value Marked Correlations in Fatigue of Advanced Engineering Alloys (PREPRINT)

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-04-01

000 the response of damage dependent processes like fatigue crack formation, a framework is needed that accounts for the extreme value life...many different damage processes (e.g. fatigue, creep, fracture). In this work, multiple material volumes for both IN100 and Ti-6Al-4V are simulated via...polycrystalline P/M Ni-base superalloy IN100 Typically, fatigue damage formation in polycrystalline superalloys has been linked to the existence of

Impact of possible climate changes on river runoff under different natural conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gusev, Yeugeniy M.; Nasonova, Olga N.; Kovalev, Evgeny E.; Ayzel, Georgy V.

2018-06-01

The present study was carried out within the framework of the International Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP) for 11 large river basins located in different continents of the globe under a wide variety of natural conditions. The aim of the study was to investigate possible changes in various characteristics of annual river runoff (mean values, standard deviations, frequency of extreme annual runoff) up to 2100 on the basis of application of the land surface model SWAP and meteorological projections simulated by five General Circulation Models (GCMs) according to four RCP scenarios. Analysis of the obtained results has shown that changes in climatic runoff are different (both in magnitude and sign) for the river basins located in different regions of the planet due to differences in natural (primarily climatic) conditions. The climatic elasticities of river runoff to changes in air temperature and precipitation were estimated that makes it possible, as the first approximation, to project changes in climatic values of annual runoff, using the projected changes in mean annual air temperature and annual precipitation for the river basins. It was found that for most rivers under study, the frequency of occurrence of extreme runoff values increases. This is true both for extremely high runoff (when the projected climatic runoff increases) and for extremely low values (when the projected climatic runoff decreases).

Natural Hazards characterisation in industrial practice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bernardara, Pietro

2017-04-01

The definition of rare hydroclimatic extremes (up to 10-4 annual probability of occurrence) is of the utmost importance for the design of high value industrial infrastructures, such as grids, power plants, offshore platforms. The underestimation as well as the overestimation of the risk may lead to huge costs (ex. mid-life expensive works or overdesign) which may even prevent the project to happen. Nevertheless, the uncertainty associated to the extrapolation towards the rare frequencies are huge and manifold. They are mainly due to the scarcity of observations, the lack of quality on the extreme value records and on the arbitrary choice of the models used for extrapolations. This often put the design engineers in uncomfortable situations when they must choose the design values to use. Providentially, the recent progresses in the earth observation techniques, information technology, historical data collection and weather and ocean modelling are making huge datasets available. A careful use of big datasets of observations and modelled data are leading towards a better understanding of the physics of the underlying phenomena, the complex interactions between them and thus of the extreme events frequency extrapolations. This will move the engineering practice from the single site, small sample, application of statistical analysis to a more spatially coherent, physically driven extrapolation of extreme values. Few examples, from the EDF industrial practice are given to illustrate these progresses and their potential impact on the design approaches.

Projected changes to short- and long-duration precipitation extremes over the Canadian Prairie Provinces

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Masud, M. B.; Khaliq, M. N.; Wheater, H. S.

2017-09-01

The effects of climate change on April-October short- and long-duration precipitation extremes over the Canadian Prairie Provinces were evaluated using a multi-Regional Climate Model (RCM) ensemble available through the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program. Simulations considered include those performed with six RCMs driven by the National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis II product for the 1981-2000 period and those driven by four Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs) for the current 1971-2000 and future 2041-2070 periods (i.e. a total of 11 current-to-future period simulation pairs). A regional frequency analysis approach was used to develop 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, and 50-year return values of precipitation extremes from NCEP and AOGCM-driven current and future period simulations that respectively were used to study the performance of RCMs and projected changes for selected return values at regional, grid-cell and local scales. Performance errors due to internal dynamics and physics of RCMs studied for the 1981-2000 period reveal considerable variation in the performance of the RCMs. However, the performance errors were found to be much smaller for RCM ensemble averages than for individual RCMs. Projected changes in future climate to selected regional return values of short-duration (e.g. 15- and 30-min) precipitation extremes and for longer return periods (e.g. 50-year) were found to be mostly larger than those to the longer duration (e.g. 24- and 48-h) extremes and short return periods (e.g. 2-year). Overall, projected changes in precipitation extremes were larger for southeastern regions followed by southern and northern regions and smaller for southwestern and western regions of the study area. The changes to return values were also found to be statistically significant for the majority of the RCM-AOGCM simulation pairs. These projections might be useful as a key input for the future planning of urban drainage infrastructure and development of strategic climate change adaptation measures.

Analysis of extreme values of the economic efficiency indicators of transport infrastructure projects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Korytárová, J.; Vaňková, L.

2017-10-01

Paper builds on previous research of the authors into the evaluation of economic efficiency of transport infrastructure projects evaluated by the economic efficiency ratio - NPV, IRR and BCR. Values of indicators and subsequent outputs of the sensitivity analysis show extremely favourable values in some cases. The authors dealt with the analysis of these indicators down to the level of the input variables and examined which inputs have a larger share of these extreme values. NCF for the calculation of above mentioned ratios is created by benefits that arise as the difference between zero and investment options of the project (savings in travel and operating costs, savings in travel time costs, reduction in accident costs and savings in exogenous costs) as well as total agency costs. Savings in travel time costs which contribute to the overall utility of projects by more than 70% appear to be the most important benefits in the long term horizon. This is the reason why this benefit emphasized. The outcome of the article has resulted how the particular basic variables contributed to the total robustness of economic efficiency of these project.

Evaluation of NASA's MERRA Precipitation Product in Reproducing the Observed Trend and Distribution of Extreme Precipitation Events in the United States

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ashouri, Hamed; Sorooshian, Soroosh; Hsu, Kuo-Lin; Bosilovich, Michael G.; Lee, Jaechoul; Wehner, Michael F.; Collow, Allison

2016-01-01

This study evaluates the performance of NASA's Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) precipitation product in reproducing the trend and distribution of extreme precipitation events. Utilizing the extreme value theory, time-invariant and time-variant extreme value distributions are developed to model the trends and changes in the patterns of extreme precipitation events over the contiguous United States during 1979-2010. The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) U.S.Unified gridded observation data are used as the observational dataset. The CPC analysis shows that the eastern and western parts of the United States are experiencing positive and negative trends in annual maxima, respectively. The continental-scale patterns of change found in MERRA seem to reasonably mirror the observed patterns of change found in CPC. This is not previously expected, given the difficulty in constraining precipitation in reanalysis products. MERRA tends to overestimate the frequency at which the 99th percentile of precipitation is exceeded because this threshold tends to be lower in MERRA, making it easier to be exceeded. This feature is dominant during the summer months. MERRA tends to reproduce spatial patterns of the scale and location parameters of the generalized extreme value and generalized Pareto distributions. However, MERRA underestimates these parameters, particularly over the Gulf Coast states, leading to lower magnitudes in extreme precipitation events. Two issues in MERRA are identified: 1) MERRA shows a spurious negative trend in Nebraska and Kansas, which is most likely related to the changes in the satellite observing system over time that has apparently affected the water cycle in the central United States, and 2) the patterns of positive trend over the Gulf Coast states and along the East Coast seem to be correlated with the tropical cyclones in these regions. The analysis of the trends in the seasonal precipitation extremes indicates that the hurricane and winter seasons are contributing the most to these trend patterns in the southeastern United States. In addition, the increasing annual trend simulated by MERRA in the Gulf Coast region is due to an incorrect trend in winter precipitation extremes.

Evaluation of NASA’s MERRA Precipitation Product in Reproducing the Observed Trend and Distribution of Extreme Precipitation Events in the United States

DOE PAGES

Ashouri, Hamed; Sorooshian, Soroosh; Hsu, Kuo-Lin; ...

2016-02-03

This study evaluates the performance of NASA's Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) precipitation product in reproducing the trend and distribution of extreme precipitation events. Utilizing the extreme value theory, time-invariant and time-variant extreme value distributions are developed to model the trends and changes in the patterns of extreme precipitation events over the contiguous United States during 1979-2010. The Climate Prediction Center (CPC)U.S.Unified gridded observation data are used as the observational dataset. The CPC analysis shows that the eastern and western parts of the United States are experiencing positive and negative trends in annual maxima, respectively. The continental-scalemore » patterns of change found in MERRA seem to reasonably mirror the observed patterns of change found in CPC. This is not previously expected, given the difficulty in constraining precipitation in reanalysis products. MERRA tends to overestimate the frequency at which the 99th percentile of precipitation is exceeded because this threshold tends to be lower in MERRA, making it easier to be exceeded. This feature is dominant during the summer months. MERRAtends to reproduce spatial patterns of the scale and location parameters of the generalized extreme value and generalized Pareto distributions. However, MERRA underestimates these parameters, particularly over the Gulf Coast states, leading to lower magnitudes in extreme precipitation events. Two issues in MERRA are identified: 1)MERRAshows a spurious negative trend in Nebraska andKansas, which ismost likely related to the changes in the satellite observing system over time that has apparently affected the water cycle in the central United States, and 2) the patterns of positive trend over theGulf Coast states and along the East Coast seem to be correlated with the tropical cyclones in these regions. The analysis of the trends in the seasonal precipitation extremes indicates that the hurricane and winter seasons are contributing the most to these trend patterns in the southeastern United States. The increasing annual trend simulated by MERRA in the Gulf Coast region is due to an incorrect trend in winter precipitation extremes.« less

[Multi-temporal scale analysis of impacts of extreme high temperature on net carbon uptake in subtropical coniferous plantation.

PubMed

Zhang, Mi; Wen, Xue Fa; Zhang, Lei Ming; Wang, Hui Min; Guo, Yi Wen; Yu, Gui Rui

2018-02-01

Extreme high temperature is one of important extreme weathers that impact forest ecosystem carbon cycle. In this study, applying CO 2 flux and routine meteorological data measured during 2003-2012, we examined the impacts of extreme high temperature and extreme high temperature event on net carbon uptake of subtropical coniferous plantation in Qianyanzhou. Combining with wavelet analysis, we analyzed environmental controls on net carbon uptake at different temporal scales, when the extreme high temperature and extreme high temperature event happened. The results showed that mean daily cumulative NEE decreased by 51% in the days with daily maximum air temperature range between 35 ℃ and 40 ℃, compared with that in the days with the range between 30 ℃ and 34 ℃. The effects of the extreme high temperature and extreme high temperature event on monthly NEE and annual NEE related to the strength and duration of extreme high tempe-rature event. In 2003, when strong extreme high temperature event happened, the sum of monthly cumulative NEE in July and August was only -11.64 g C·m -2 ·(2 month) -1 . The value decreased by 90%, compared with multi-year average value. At the same time, the relative variation of annual NEE reached -6.7%. In July and August, when the extreme high temperature and extreme high temperature event occurred, air temperature (T a ) and vapor press deficit (VPD) were the dominant controller for the daily variation of NEE. The coherency between NEE T a and NEE VPD was 0.97 and 0.95, respectively. At 8-, 16-, and 32-day periods, T a , VPD, soil water content at 5 cm depth (SWC), and precipitation (P) controlled NEE. The coherency between NEE SWC and NEE P was higher than 0.8 at monthly scale. The results indicated that atmospheric water deficit impacted NEE at short temporal scale, when the extreme high temperature and extreme high temperature event occurred, both of atmospheric water deficit and soil drought stress impacted NEE at long temporal scales in this ecosystem.

Lead isotope relations in oceanic Ridge basalts from the Juan de Fuca-Gorda Ridge area N.E. Pacific Ocean

USGS Publications Warehouse

Church, S.E.; Tatsumoto, M.

1975-01-01

Lead isotopic analyses of a suite of basaltic rocks from the Juan de Fuca-Gorda Ridge and nearby seamounts confirm an isotopically heterogeneous mantle known since 1966. The process of mixing during partial melting of a heterogeneous mantle necessarily produces linear data arrays that can be interpreted as secondary isochrons. Moreover, the position of the entire lead isotope array, with respect to the geochron, requires that U/Pb and Th/Pb values are progressively increased over the age of the earth. Partial melting theory also dictates analogous behavior for the other incompatible trace elements. This process explains not only the LIL element character of MOR basalts, but also duplicates the spread of radiogenic lead data collected from alkali-rich oceanic basalts. This dynamic, open-system model of lead isotopic and chemical evolution of the mantle is believed to be the direct result of tectonic flow and convective overturn within the mantle and is compatible with geophysical models of a dynamic earth. ?? 1975 Springer-Verlag.

Computer-composite mapping for geologists

USGS Publications Warehouse

van Driel, J.N.

1980-01-01

A computer program for overlaying maps has been tested and evaluated as a means for producing geologic derivative maps. Four maps of the Sugar House Quadrangle, Utah, were combined, using the Multi-Scale Data Analysis and Mapping Program, in a single composite map that shows the relative stability of the land surface during earthquakes. Computer-composite mapping can provide geologists with a powerful analytical tool and a flexible graphic display technique. Digitized map units can be shown singly, grouped with different units from the same map, or combined with units from other source maps to produce composite maps. The mapping program permits the user to assign various values to the map units and to specify symbology for the final map. Because of its flexible storage, easy manipulation, and capabilities of graphic output, the composite-mapping technique can readily be applied to mapping projects in sedimentary and crystalline terranes, as well as to maps showing mineral resource potential. ?? 1980 Springer-Verlag New York Inc.

Prediction by regression and intrarange data scatter in surface-process studies

USGS Publications Warehouse

Toy, T.J.; Osterkamp, W.R.; Renard, K.G.

1993-01-01

Modeling is a major component of contemporary earth science, and regression analysis occupies a central position in the parameterization, calibration, and validation of geomorphic and hydrologic models. Although this methodology can be used in many ways, we are primarily concerned with the prediction of values for one variable from another variable. Examination of the literature reveals considerable inconsistency in the presentation of the results of regression analysis and the occurrence of patterns in the scatter of data points about the regression line. Both circumstances confound utilization and evaluation of the models. Statisticians are well aware of various problems associated with the use of regression analysis and offer improved practices; often, however, their guidelines are not followed. After a review of the aforementioned circumstances and until standard criteria for model evaluation become established, we recommend, as a minimum, inclusion of scatter diagrams, the standard error of the estimate, and sample size in reporting the results of regression analyses for most surface-process studies. ?? 1993 Springer-Verlag.

MT+, integrating magnetotellurics to determine earth structure, physical state, and processes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bedrosian, P.A.

2007-01-01

As one of the few deep-earth imaging techniques, magnetotellurics provides information on both the structure and physical state of the crust and upper mantle. Magnetotellurics is sensitive to electrical conductivity, which varies within the earth by many orders of magnitude and is modified by a range of earth processes. As with all geophysical techniques, magnetotellurics has a non-unique inverse problem and has limitations in resolution and sensitivity. As such, an integrated approach, either via the joint interpretation of independent geophysical models, or through the simultaneous inversion of independent data sets is valuable, and at times essential to an accurate interpretation. Magnetotelluric data and models are increasingly integrated with geological, geophysical and geochemical information. This review considers recent studies that illustrate the ways in which such information is combined, from qualitative comparisons to statistical correlation studies to multi-property inversions. Also emphasized are the range of problems addressed by these integrated approaches, and their value in elucidating earth structure, physical state, and processes. ?? Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2007.

Isotopic composition of strontium in three basalt-andesite centers along the Lesser Antilles arc

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hedge, C.E.; Lewis, J.F.

1971-01-01

Si87/Sr86 ratios have been determined for lavas and py lastic rocks from three basalt-andesite centers along the Lesser Antilles arc-Mt. Misery on the island of St. Kitts, Soufriere on the island of St. Vincent, and Carriacou, an island of The Grenadines. The average Si87/Sr86 content of these rocks is 0.7038 for Mt. Misery, 0.7041 for Soufriere, and 0.7053 for Carriacou. All the Sr87/Sr86 values from each center are the same within analytical uncertainty (??0.0002). The constancy of strontium isotopic data within each center supports the hypothesis that basalts and andesites for each specific center investigated are generated from the same source - in agreement with petrographic and major- and minor-element data. Strontium isotopic compositions and elemental concentrations, particularly of strontium and nickel, indicate that this source was mantle peridotite and that the relationship between the respective basalts and andesites is probably fractional crystallization. ?? 1971 Springer-Verlag.

A study of methods to estimate debris flow velocity

USGS Publications Warehouse

Prochaska, A.B.; Santi, P.M.; Higgins, J.D.; Cannon, S.H.

2008-01-01

Debris flow velocities are commonly back-calculated from superelevation events which require subjective estimates of radii of curvature of bends in the debris flow channel or predicted using flow equations that require the selection of appropriate rheological models and material property inputs. This research investigated difficulties associated with the use of these conventional velocity estimation methods. Radii of curvature estimates were found to vary with the extent of the channel investigated and with the scale of the media used, and back-calculated velocities varied among different investigated locations along a channel. Distinct populations of Bingham properties were found to exist between those measured by laboratory tests and those back-calculated from field data; thus, laboratory-obtained values would not be representative of field-scale debris flow behavior. To avoid these difficulties with conventional methods, a new preliminary velocity estimation method is presented that statistically relates flow velocity to the channel slope and the flow depth. This method presents ranges of reasonable velocity predictions based on 30 previously measured velocities. ?? 2008 Springer-Verlag.

Assessment of atmospheric metal pollution in the urban area of Mexico City, using Ficus benjamina as biomonitor.

PubMed

Guzmán-Morales, Janin; Morton-Bermea, Ofelia; Hernández-Álvarez, Elizabeth; Rodríguez-Salazar, María Teresa; García-Arreola, María Elena; Tapia-Cruz, Víctor

2011-05-01

Concentrations of vanadium, chromium, cobalt, nickel, copper, zinc, antimony, and lead were measured in Ficus benjamina leaves from the Mexico City urban area in order to assess their enrichment against background values. The instrumental analysis was performed using inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry and the analytical method was tested using two certified reference materials from the National Institute of Standards and Technology (1547 Peach Leaves and 1573a Tomato Leaves). Enrichment factors were calculated, i.e., total to background concentration ratio, for each metal. Low enrichments of vanadium, cobalt, nickel, and copper (≈2), and mild enrichments of chromium and zinc (4.4, 4.5 respectively) were found in the entire area; oppositely, high enrichments were assessed for antimony (28.6) and lead (17.2). However, results indicate that metal concentrations strongly depend on the specific urban sub-area. Increments of metals were attributed to natural, vehicular, and industrial sources. © Springer Science+Business Media, LLC 2011

Biomonitoring in the Boulder River watershed, Montana, USA: metal concentrations in biofilm and macroinvertebrates, and relations with macroinvertebrate assemblage

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rhea, D.T.; Harper, D.D.; Farag, A.M.; Brumbaugh, W.G.

2006-01-01

Portions of the Boulder River watershed contain elevated concentrations of arsenic, cadmium, copper, lead, and zinc in water, sediment, and biota. We measured concentrations of As, Cd, Cu, Pb, and Zn in biofilm and macroinvertebrates, and assessed macroinvertebrate assemblage and aquatic habitat with the objective of monitoring planned remediation efforts. Concentrations of metals were generally higher in downstream sites compared with upstream or reference sites, and two sites contained metal concentrations in macroinvertebrates greater than values reported to reduce health and survival of resident trout. Macroinvertebrate assemblage was correlated with metal concentrations in biofilm and macroinvertebrates. However, macroinvertebrate metrics were significantly correlated with a greater number of biofilm metals (8) than metals in invertebrates (4). Lead concentrations in biofilm appeared to have the most significant impact on macroinvertebrate assemblage. Metal concentrations in macroinvertebrates were directly proportional to concentrations in biofilm, indicating biofilm as a potential surrogate for monitoring metal impacts in aquatic systems. ?? Springer Science+Business Media, Inc. 2006.

Sensor Selection from Independence Graphs using Submodularity

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-02-01

Krause , B. McMahan, Guestrin C., and Gupta A., “Robust sub- modular observation selection,” Journal of Machine Learning Research (JMLR), vol. 9, pp. 2761...235–257. Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 1983. [10] A. Krause , “SFO: A toolbox for submodular function optimization,” J. Mach. Learn. Res., vol. 11, pp

Channels: Runtime System Infrastructure for Security-typed Languages

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-10-01

Milan , Italy, September 2005. Springer-Verlag. [2] D. E. Bell and L. J. LaPadula. Secure computer system: Uni- fied exposition and Multics...Proceedings of the USENIX Annual Technical Conference, Santa Clara, CA, USA, June 2007. To appear. [9] S. Kamara, S. Fahmy, E. Schultz , F. Kerschbaum, and

77 FR 34975 - Seminole Nation of Oklahoma-Alcohol Control and Enforcement Ordinance

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-06-12

... government and the delivery of tribal services. DATES: Effective Date: This Ordinance is effective 30 days...) 781-4685; Fax: (918) 781-4649: or De Springer, Office of Indian Services, Bureau of Indian Affairs... Seminole Nation of Oklahoma and the delivery of important governmental services. Section 704. Application...

Correction to: Contribution of Mössbauer spectroscopy to the investigation of Fe/S biogenesis.

PubMed

Garcia-Serres, Ricardo; Clémancey, Martin; Latour, Jean-Marc; Blondin, Geneviève

2018-06-02

The article "Contribution of Mössbauer spectroscopy to the investigation of Fe/S biogenesis", written by Ricardo Garcia‑Serres, Martin Clémancey, Jean‑Marc Latour, Geneviève Blondin was originally published electronically on the publisher's internet portal (currently SpringerLink) without open access.

Correction to: The NMR contribution to protein-protein networking in Fe-S protein maturation.

PubMed

Banci, Lucia; Camponeschi, Francesca; Ciofi-Baffoni, Simone; Piccioli, Mario

2018-05-31

The article "The NMR contribution to protein-protein networking in Fe-S protein maturation", written by Lucia Banci, Francesca Camponeschi, Simone Ciofi‑Baffoni, Mario Piccioli was originally published electronically on the publisher's internet portal (currently SpringerLink) on 22 March, 2018 without open access.

Springer index of viruses, 2nd edition chapter - Aphthovirus, Picornaviridae

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a highly contagious viral disease of cloven-hoofed animals. An outbreak of FMD can have a significant economic impact because of the restrictions on international trade of susceptible animals and their products with FMD-free countries. The disease is controlled by sla...

Cost Comparison Among Provable Data Possession Schemes

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-03-01

possession,” in Proceedings of the 11th International Conference on Ap- plied Cryptography and Network Security. Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer-Verlag, 2013...curves,” in Security and Cryptography (SECRYPT), 2013 International Conference on, July 2013, pp. 1–12. [19] R. S. Kumar and A. Saxena, “Data integrity

On Eddy Viscosity, Energy Cascades, and the Horizontal Resolution of Gridded Satellite Altimeter Products

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-02-01

Manuscript received 21 December 2011, in final form 23 August 2012) ABSTRACT Motivated by the recent interest in ocean energetics, the widespread use...Inhomogeneous two-dimensional turbu- lence in the atmosphere. Advances in Turbulence, G. Comte - Bellot and J. Mathieu, Eds., Springer-Verlag, 269-278

Tight Analysis of a Collisionless Robot Gathering Algorithm

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-09-28

local-multiplicity detection. In SSS , pages 384– 398, Berlin, Heidelberg, 2009. Springer-Verlag. [20] T. Izumi, Y. Katayama, N. Inuzuka, and K. Wada...T. Izumi, M. G. Potop-Butucaru, and S. Tixeuil. Connectivity- preserving scattering of mobile robots with limited visibility. In SSS , pages 319–331

Diffuse Interface Methods for Multiclass Segmentation of High-Dimensional Data

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-03-04

handwritten digits , 1998. http://yann.lecun.com/exdb/mnist/. [19] S. Nene, S. Nayar, H. Murase, Columbia Object Image Library (COIL-100), Technical Report... recognition on smartphones using a multiclass hardware-friendly support vector machine, in: Ambient Assisted Living and Home Care, Springer, 2012, pp. 216–223.

A Brief Review of Some Approaches to Hysteresis in Viscoelastic Polymers

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-01-27

Pokrovskii, Systems with Hysteresis, Nauka, Moscow, 1983; translated, Springer-Verlag, Berlin, 1989. [46] V. Lakshmikantham and M. Rama Mohana Rao ...S.G. Braun, D. Ewins and S. Rao , eds.), Academic Press, London, 2001, 658–664. [23] H.T. Banks and G.A. Pinter, A probabilistic multiscale approach

On a question of Brown, Douglas, and Fillmore

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Jaewoong; Lee, Woo Young

2007-12-01

In this note we answer an old question of Brown, Douglas, and Fillmore [L. Brown, R.G. Douglas, P. Fillmore, Unitary equivalence modulo the compact operators and extensions of C*-algebras, in: Proc. Conf. Operator Theory, in: Lecture Notes in Math., vol. 345, Springer, Berlin, 1973, pp. 58-128].

Cosmopolitanism and Rural Education: A Conversation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Reid, Carol

2015-01-01

In this paper, recent research into the global movement of teachers [C. Reid, J. Collins, and M. Singh. 2014. "Global Teachers, Australian Perspectives: Goodbye Mr Chips, Hello Ms Banerjee." Singapore: Springer] and their experiences in rural areas of Australia are discussed in order to make the case for a cosmopolitan education theory…

Trajectories for Locomotion Systems: A Geometric and Computational Approach via Series Expansions

DTIC Science & Technology

2004-10-11

speed controller. The model is endowed with a 100 count per revolution optical encoder for odometry. (2) On-board computation is performed by a single...switching networks,” Automatica, July 2003. Submitted. [17] K. M. Passino, Biomimicry for Optimization, Control, and Automation. New York: Springer

Building Task-Oriented Applications: An Introduction to the Legion Programming Paradigm

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-02-01

These domain definitions are validated prior to execution and represent logical regions that each task can access and manipulate as per the dictates of...Introducing Enzo, an AMR cosmology application, in adaptive mesh refinement - theory and applications. Chicago (IL): Springer Berlin Heidelberg; c2005. p

Hardware Index to Set Partition Converter

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-01-01

Brisk, J.G. de Figueiredo Coutinho, P.C. Diniz (Eds.): ARC 2013, LNCS 7806, pp. 72–83, 2013. c© Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2013 Report...374 (1990) 13. Orlov, M.: Efficient generation of set partitions (March 2002), http://www.cs.bgu.ac.il/~orlovm/papers/partitions.pdf 14. Reingold, E

Experimental Investigation of Widespread Delamination Damage to Composite Materials Caused by Radiant Heating

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-06-30

Rev. E) 2002. 7. RM-3002 Bismaleimide (BMI) Prepreg , Product Information, Renegade Materials Corporation, Revision Date: 16-May-2012 KOA 16... prepregs /polyimide- prepregs . Renegade Materials Corporation Website, Accessed June 20, 2013. 9. Shen, C. and G.S. Springer, “Moisture Absorption and

Correction to: A Comparison of the Energetic Cost of Running in Marathon Racing Shoes.

PubMed

Hoogkamer, Wouter; Kipp, Shalaya; Frank, Jesse H; Farina, Emily M; Luo, Geng; Kram, Rodger

2018-06-01

An Online First version of this article was made available online at https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s40279-017-0811-2 on 16 November 2017. An error was subsequently identified in the article, and the following correction should be noted.

A Strategy for Efficiently Verifying Requirements Specifications Using Composition and Invariants

DTIC Science & Technology

2003-09-05

Colle - sur - Loup , France, Oct. 1984. Springer-Verlag. [34] J. Ramish. Empirical studies of compositional abstraction. Technical report, Naval Research...global to modular temporal rea- soning about programs. In K. R. Apt, editor, Proc. NATO Adv. Study Inst. on Logics and Models of Concurrent Systems, La

Transformational principles for NEON sampling of mammalian parasites and pathogens: a response to Springer et al. (2016)

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The National Environmental Observatory Network (NEON) has recently released a series of protocols presented with apparently broad community support for studies of small mammals and parasites. Sampling designs were outlined outlined, collectively aimed at understanding how changing environmental cond...

Impulse Response Operators for Structural Complexes

DTIC Science & Technology

1990-05-12

systems of the complex. The statistical energy analysis (SEA) is one such a device [ 13, 14]. The rendering of SEA from equation (21) and/or (25) lies...Propagation.] 13. L. Cremer, M. Heckl, and E.E. Ungar 1973 Structure-Borne Sound (Springer Verlag). 14. R. H. Lyon 1975 Statistical Energy Analysis of

Developing Software to Use Parallel Processing Effectively

DTIC Science & Technology

1988-10-01

Experience, Vol 15(6), June 1985, p53 Gajski85 Gajski , Daniel D. and Jih-Kwon Peir, "Essential Issues in Multiprocessor Systems", IEEE Computer, June...Treleaven (eds.), Springer-Verlag, pp. 213-225 (June 1987). Kuck83 David Kuck, Duncan Lawrie, Ron Cytron, Ahmed Sameh and Daniel Gajski , The Architecture and

Correction to: Tanner-Whitehouse Skeletal Ages in Male Youth Soccer Players: TW2 or TW3?

PubMed

Malina, Robert M; Coelho-E-Silva, Manuel J; Figueiredo, António J; Philippaerts, Renaat M; Hirose, Norikazu; Reyes, Maria Eugenia Peña; Gilli, Giulio; Benso, Andrea; Vaeyens, Roel; Deprez, Dieter; Guglielmo, Luiz G A; Buranarugsa, Rojapon

2018-04-01

An Online First version of this article was made available online at https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs40279-017-0799-7 on 29 October 2017. Errors were subsequently identified in the article, and the following corrections should be noted.

Causes and consequences of marine mammal population declines in southwest Alaska: a food-web perspective.

PubMed

Estes, J A; Doak, D F; Springer, A M; Williams, T M

2009-06-27

Populations of sea otters, seals and sea lions have collapsed across much of southwest Alaska over the past several decades. The sea otter decline set off a trophic cascade in which the coastal marine ecosystem underwent a phase shift from kelp forests to deforested sea urchin barrens. This interaction in turn affected the distribution, abundance and productivity of numerous other species. Ecological consequences of the pinniped declines are largely unknown. Increased predation by transient (marine mammal-eating) killer whales probably caused the sea otter declines and may have caused the pinniped declines as well. Springer et al. proposed that killer whales, which purportedly fed extensively on great whales, expanded their diets to include a higher percentage of sea otters and pinnipeds following a sharp reduction in great whale numbers from post World War II industrial whaling. Critics of this hypothesis claim that great whales are not now and probably never were an important nutritional resource for killer whales. We used demographic/energetic analyses to evaluate whether or not a predator-prey system involving killer whales and the smaller marine mammals would be sustainable without some nutritional contribution from the great whales. Our results indicate that while such a system is possible, it could only exist under a narrow range of extreme conditions and is therefore highly unlikely.

Relation of desert pupfish abundance to selected environmental variables in natural and manmade habitats in the Salton Sea basin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Martin, B.A.; Saiki, M.K.

2005-01-01

We assessed the relation between abundance of desert pupfish, Cyprinodon macularius, and selected biological and physicochemical variables in natural and manmade habitats within the Salton Sea Basin. Field sampling in a natural tributary, Salt Creek, and three agricultural drains captured eight species including pupfish (1.1% of the total catch), the only native species encountered. According to Bray-Curtis resemblance functions, fish species assemblages differed mostly between Salt Creek and the drains (i.e., the three drains had relatively similar species assemblages). Pupfish numbers and environmental variables varied among sites and sample periods. Canonical correlation showed that pupfish abundance was positively correlated with abundance of western mosquitofish, Gambusia affinis, and negatively correlated with abundance of porthole livebearers, Poeciliopsis gracilis, tilapias (Sarotherodon mossambica and Tilapia zillii), longjaw mudsuckers, Gillichthys mirabilis, and mollies (Poecilia latipinnaandPoecilia mexicana). In addition, pupfish abundance was positively correlated with cover, pH, and salinity, and negatively correlated with sediment factor (a measure of sediment grain size) and dissolved oxygen. Pupfish abundance was generally highest in habitats where water quality extremes (especially high pH and salinity, and low dissolved oxygen) seemingly limited the occurrence of nonnative fishes. This study also documented evidence of predation by mudsuckers on pupfish. These findings support the contention of many resource managers that pupfish populations are adversely influenced by ecological interactions with nonnative fishes. ?? Springer 2005.

Evaluation of dynamically downscaled extreme temperature using a spatially-aggregated generalized extreme value (GEV) model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, Jiali; Han, Yuefeng; Stein, Michael L.

2016-02-10

The Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model downscaling skill in extreme maximum daily temperature is evaluated by using the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution. While the GEV distribution has been used extensively in climatology and meteorology for estimating probabilities of extreme events, accurately estimating GEV parameters based on data from a single pixel can be difficult, even with fairly long data records. This work proposes a simple method assuming that the shape parameter, the most difficult of the three parameters to estimate, does not vary over a relatively large region. This approach is applied to evaluate 31-year WRF-downscaled extreme maximummore » temperature through comparison with North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) data. Uncertainty in GEV parameter estimates and the statistical significance in the differences of estimates between WRF and NARR are accounted for by conducting bootstrap resampling. Despite certain biases over parts of the United States, overall, WRF shows good agreement with NARR in the spatial pattern and magnitudes of GEV parameter estimates. Both WRF and NARR show a significant increase in extreme maximum temperature over the southern Great Plains and southeastern United States in January and over the western United States in July. The GEV model shows clear benefits from the regionally constant shape parameter assumption, for example, leading to estimates of the location and scale parameters of the model that show coherent spatial patterns.« less

Extreme storm surge and wind wave climate scenario simulations at the Venetian littoral

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lionello, P.; Galati, M. B.; Elvini, E.

Scenario climate projections for extreme marine storms producing storm surges and wind waves are very important for the northern flat coast of the Adriatic Sea, where the area at risk includes a unique cultural and environmental heritage, and important economic activities. This study uses a shallow water model and a spectral wave model for computing the storm surge and the wind wave field, respectively, from the sea level pressure and wind fields that have been computed by the RegCM regional climate model. Simulations cover the period 1961-1990 for the present climate (control simulations) and the period 2071-2100 for the A2 and B2 scenarios. Generalized Extreme Value analysis is used for estimating values for the 10 and 100 year return times. The adequacy of these modeling tools for a reliable estimation of the climate change signal, without needing further downscaling is shown. However, this study has mainly a methodological value, because issues such as interdecadal variability and intermodel variability cannot be addressed, since the analysis is based on single model 30-year long simulations. The control simulation looks reasonably accurate for extreme value analysis, though it overestimates/underestimates the frequency of high/low surge and wind wave events with respect to observations. Scenario simulations suggest higher frequency of intense storms for the B2 scenario, but not for the A2. Likely, these differences are not the effect of climate change, but of climate multidecadal variability. Extreme storms are stronger in future scenarios, but differences are not statistically significant. Therefore this study does not provide convincing evidence for more stormy conditions in future scenarios.

[Quantitative Evaluation of Metal Artifacts on CT Images on the Basis of Statistics of Extremes].

PubMed

Kitaguchi, Shigetoshi; Imai, Kuniharu; Ueda, Suguru; Hashimoto, Naomi; Hattori, Shouta; Saika, Takahiro; Ono, Yoshifumi

2016-05-01

It is well-known that metal artifacts have a harmful effect on the image quality of computed tomography (CT) images. However, the physical property remains still unknown. In this study, we investigated the relationship between metal artifacts and tube currents using statistics of extremes. A commercially available phantom for measuring CT dose index 160 mm in diameter was prepared and a brass rod 13 mm in diameter was placed at the centerline of the phantom. This phantom was used as a target object to evaluate metal artifacts and was scanned using an area detector CT scanner with various tube currents under a constant tube voltage of 120 kV. Sixty parallel line segments with a length of 100 pixels were placed to cross metal artifacts on CT images and the largest difference between two adjacent CT values in each of 60 CT value profiles of these line segments was employed as a feature variable for measuring metal artifacts; these feature variables were analyzed on the basis of extreme value theory. The CT value variation induced by metal artifacts was statistically characterized by Gumbel distribution, which was one of the extreme value distributions; namely, metal artifacts have the same statistical characteristic as streak artifacts. Therefore, Gumbel evaluation method makes it possible to analyze not only streak artifacts but also metal artifacts. Furthermore, the location parameter in Gumbel distribution was shown to be in inverse proportion to the square root of a tube current. This result suggested that metal artifacts have the same dose dependence as image noises.

Assessing Regional Scale Variability in Extreme Value Statistics Under Altered Climate Scenarios

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Brunsell, Nathaniel; Mechem, David; Ma, Chunsheng

Recent studies have suggested that low-frequency modes of climate variability can significantly influence regional climate. The climatology associated with extreme events has been shown to be particularly sensitive. This has profound implications for droughts, heat waves, and food production. We propose to examine regional climate simulations conducted over the continental United States by applying a recently developed technique which combines wavelet multi–resolution analysis with information theory metrics. This research is motivated by two fundamental questions concerning the spatial and temporal structure of extreme events. These questions are 1) what temporal scales of the extreme value distributions are most sensitive tomore » alteration by low-frequency climate forcings and 2) what is the nature of the spatial structure of variation in these timescales? The primary objective is to assess to what extent information theory metrics can be useful in characterizing the nature of extreme weather phenomena. Specifically, we hypothesize that (1) changes in the nature of extreme events will impact the temporal probability density functions and that information theory metrics will be sensitive these changes and (2) via a wavelet multi–resolution analysis, we will be able to characterize the relative contribution of different timescales on the stochastic nature of extreme events. In order to address these hypotheses, we propose a unique combination of an established regional climate modeling approach and advanced statistical techniques to assess the effects of low-frequency modes on climate extremes over North America. The behavior of climate extremes in RCM simulations for the 20th century will be compared with statistics calculated from the United States Historical Climatology Network (USHCN) and simulations from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP). This effort will serve to establish the baseline behavior of climate extremes, the validity of an innovative multi–resolution information theory approach, and the ability of the RCM modeling framework to represent the low-frequency modulation of extreme climate events. Once the skill of the modeling and analysis methodology has been established, we will apply the same approach for the AR5 (IPCC Fifth Assessment Report) climate change scenarios in order to assess how climate extremes and the the influence of lowfrequency variability on climate extremes might vary under changing climate. The research specifically addresses the DOE focus area 2. Simulation of climate extremes under a changing climate. Specific results will include (1) a better understanding of the spatial and temporal structure of extreme events, (2) a thorough quantification of how extreme values are impacted by low-frequency climate teleconnections, (3) increased knowledge of current regional climate models ability to ascertain these influences, and (4) a detailed examination of the how the distribution of extreme events are likely to change under different climate change scenarios. In addition, this research will assess the ability of the innovative wavelet information theory approach to characterize extreme events. Any and all of these results will greatly enhance society’s ability to understand and mitigate the regional ramifications of future global climate change.« less

Spatial distribution of precipitation extremes in Norway

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verpe Dyrrdal, Anita; Skaugen, Thomas; Lenkoski, Alex; Thorarinsdottir, Thordis; Stordal, Frode; Førland, Eirik J.

2015-04-01

Estimates of extreme precipitation, in terms of return levels, are crucial in planning and design of important infrastructure. Through two separate studies, we have examined the levels and spatial distribution of daily extreme precipitation over catchments in Norway, and hourly extreme precipitation in a point. The analyses were carried out through the development of two new methods for estimating extreme precipitation in Norway. For daily precipitation we fit the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution to areal time series from a gridded dataset, consisting of daily precipitation during the period 1957-today with a resolution of 1x1 km². This grid-based method is more objective and less manual and time-consuming compared to the existing method at MET Norway. In addition, estimates in ungauged catchments are easier to obtain, and the GEV approach includes a measure of uncertainty, which is a requirement in climate studies today. Further, we go into depth on the debated GEV shape parameter, which plays an important role for longer return periods. We show that it varies according to dominating precipitation types, having positive values in the southeast and negative values in the southwest. We also find indications that the degree of orographic enhancement might affect the shape parameter. For hourly precipitation, we estimate return levels on a 1x1 km² grid, by linking GEV distributions with latent Gaussian fields in a Bayesian hierarchical model (BHM). Generalized linear models on the GEV parameters, estimated from observations, are able to incorporate location-specific geographic and meteorological information and thereby accommodate these effects on extreme precipitation. Gaussian fields capture additional unexplained spatial heterogeneity and overcome the sparse grid on which observations are collected, while a Bayesian model averaging component directly assesses model uncertainty. We find that mean summer precipitation, mean summer temperature, latitude, longitude, mean annual precipitation and elevation are good covariate candidates for hourly precipitation in our model. Summer indices succeed because hourly precipitation extremes often occur during the convective season. The spatial distribution of hourly and daily precipitation differs in Norway. Daily precipitation extremes are larger along the southwestern coast, where large-scale frontal systems dominate during fall season and the mountain ridge generates strong orographic enhancement. The largest hourly precipitation extremes are mostly produced by intense convective showers during summer, and are thus found along the entire southern coast, including the Oslo-region.

Tracing sources of streamwater sulfate during snowmelt using S and O isotope ratios of sulfate and 35S activity

USGS Publications Warehouse

Shanley, J.B.; Mayer, B.; Mitchell, M.J.; Michel, R.L.; Bailey, S.W.; Kendall, C.

2005-01-01

The biogeochemical cycling of sulfur (S) was studied during the 2000 snowmelt at Sleepers River Research Watershed in northeastern Vermont, USA using a hydrochemical and multi-isotope approach. The snowpack and 10 streams of varying size and land use were sampled for analysis of anions, dissolved organic carbon (DOC), 35S activity, and ?? 34S and ?? 18O values of sulfate. At one of the streams, ?? 18O values of water also were measured. Apportionment of sulfur derived from atmospheric and mineral sources based on their distinct ?? 34S values was possible for 7 of the 10 streams. Although mineral S generally dominated, atmospheric-derived S contributions exceeded 50% in several of the streams at peak snowmelt and averaged 41% overall. However, most of this atmospheric sulfur was not from the melting snowpack; the direct contribution of atmospheric sulfate to streamwater sulfate was constrained by 35S mass balance to a maximum of 7%. Rather, the main source of atmospheric sulfur in streamwater was atmospheric sulfate deposited months to years earlier that had microbially cycled through the soil organic sulfur pool. This atmospheric/pedospheric sulfate (pedogenic sulfate formed from atmospheric sulfate) source is revealed by ?? 18O values of streamwater sulfate that remained constant and significantly lower than those of atmospheric sulfate throughout the melt period, as well as streamwater 35S ages of hundreds of days. Our results indicate that the response of streamwater sulfate to changes in atmospheric deposition will be mediated by sulfate retention in the soil. ?? Springer 2005.

Foraging segregation and genetic divergence between geographically proximate colonies of a highly mobile seabird

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wiley, Anne E.; Welch, Andreanna J.; Ostrom, P.H.; James, Helen F.; Stricker, C.A.; Fleischer, R.C.; Gandhi, H.; Adams, J.; Ainley, D.G.; Duvall, F.; Holmes, N.; Hu, D.; Judge, S.; Penniman, J.; Swindle, K.A.

2012-01-01

Foraging segregation may play an important role in the maintenance of animal diversity, and is a proposed mechanism for promoting genetic divergence within seabird species. However, little information exists regarding its presence among seabird populations. We investigated genetic and foraging divergence between two colonies of endangered Hawaiian petrels (Pterodroma sandwichensis) nesting on the islands of Hawaii and Kauai using the mitochondrial Cytochrome b gene and carbon, nitrogen and hydrogen isotope values (?? 13C, ?? 15N and ??D, respectively) of feathers. Genetic analyses revealed strong differentiation between colonies on Hawaii and Kauai, with ?? ST = 0. 50 (p < 0. 0001). Coalescent-based analyses gave estimates of <1 migration event per 1,000 generations. Hatch-year birds from Kauai had significantly lower ?? 13C and ?? 15N values than those from Hawaii. This is consistent with Kauai birds provisioning chicks with prey derived from near or north of the Hawaiian Islands, and Hawaii birds provisioning young with prey from regions of the equatorial Pacific characterized by elevated ?? 15N values at the food web base. ?? 15N values of Kauai and Hawaii adults differed significantly, indicating additional foraging segregation during molt. Feather ??D varied from -69 to 53???. This variation cannot be related solely to an isotopically homogeneous ocean water source or evaporative water loss. Instead, we propose the involvement of salt gland excretion. Our data demonstrate the presence of foraging segregation between proximately nesting seabird populations, despite high species mobility. This ecological diversity may facilitate population coexistence, and its preservation should be a focus of conservation strategies. ?? 2011 Springer-Verlag (outside the USA).

Combination of radar and daily precipitation data to estimate meaningful sub-daily point precipitation extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pegram, Geoff; Bardossy, Andras; Sinclair, Scott

2017-04-01

The use of radar measurements for the space time estimation of precipitation has for many decades been a central topic in hydro-meteorology. In this presentation we are interested specifically in daily and sub-daily extreme values of precipitation at gauged or ungauged locations which are important for design. The purpose of the presentation is to develop a methodology to combine daily precipitation observations and radar measurements to estimate sub-daily extremes at point locations. Radar data corrected using precipitation-reflectivity relationships lead to biased estimations of extremes. Different possibilities of correcting systematic errors using the daily observations are investigated. Observed gauged daily amounts are interpolated to un-sampled points and subsequently disaggregated using the sub-daily values obtained by the radar. Different corrections based on the spatial variability and the sub-daily entropy of scaled rainfall distributions are used to provide unbiased corrections of short duration extremes. In addition, a statistical procedure not based on a matching day by day correction is tested. In this last procedure, as we are only interested in rare extremes, low to medium values of rainfall depth were neglected leaving 12 days of ranked daily maxima in each set per year, whose sum typically comprises about 50% of each annual rainfall total. The sum of these 12 day maxima is first interpolated using a Kriging procedure. Subsequently this sum is disaggregated to daily values using a nearest neighbour procedure. The daily sums are then disaggregated by using the relative values of the biggest 12 radar based days in each year. Of course, the timings of radar and gauge maxima can be different, so the new method presented here uses radar for disaggregating daily gauge totals down to 15 min intervals in order to extract the maxima of sub-hourly through to daily rainfall. The methodologies were tested in South Africa, where an S-band radar operated relatively continuously at Bethlehem from 1998 to 2003, whose scan at 1.5 km above ground [CAPPI] overlapped a dense [10 km spacing] set of 45 pluviometers recording in the same 6-year period. This valuable set of data was obtained from each of 37 selected radar pixels [1 km square in plan] which contained a pluviometer, not masked out by the radar foot-print. The pluviometer data were also aggregated to daily totals, for the same purpose. The extremes obtained using disaggregation methods were compared to the observed extremes in a cross validation procedure. The unusual and novel goal was not to obtain the reproduction of the precipitation matching in space and time, but to obtain frequency distributions of the point extremes, which we found to be stable. Published as: Bárdossy, A., and G. G. S. Pegram (2017) Journal of Hydrology, Volume 544, pp 397-406

Ethical research as the target of animal extremism: an international problem.

PubMed

Conn, P Michael; Rantin, F T

2010-02-01

Animal extremism has been increasing worldwide; frequently researchers are the targets of actions by groups with extreme animal rights agendas. Sometimes this targeting is violent and may involve assaults on family members or destruction of property. In this article, we summarize recent events and suggest steps that researchers can take to educate the public on the value of animal research both for people and animals.

Estimating the extreme low-temperature event using nonparametric methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

D'Silva, Anisha

This thesis presents a new method of estimating the one-in-N low temperature threshold using a non-parametric statistical method called kernel density estimation applied to daily average wind-adjusted temperatures. We apply our One-in-N Algorithm to local gas distribution companies (LDCs), as they have to forecast the daily natural gas needs of their consumers. In winter, demand for natural gas is high. Extreme low temperature events are not directly related to an LDCs gas demand forecasting, but knowledge of extreme low temperatures is important to ensure that an LDC has enough capacity to meet customer demands when extreme low temperatures are experienced. We present a detailed explanation of our One-in-N Algorithm and compare it to the methods using the generalized extreme value distribution, the normal distribution, and the variance-weighted composite distribution. We show that our One-in-N Algorithm estimates the one-in- N low temperature threshold more accurately than the methods using the generalized extreme value distribution, the normal distribution, and the variance-weighted composite distribution according to root mean square error (RMSE) measure at a 5% level of significance. The One-in- N Algorithm is tested by counting the number of times the daily average wind-adjusted temperature is less than or equal to the one-in- N low temperature threshold.

The Logic of Values Clarification

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kazepides, A. C.

1977-01-01

Traces the origin of the Values Clarification movement in education in Carl Roger's clien-centered therapy and exposes its unwarranted extreme ethical stance. Examines a model episode of values clarification and shows how the theoretical confusions of the Values Clarification proponents are reflected in their actual teaching strategies. (Editor/RK)

Temporal profile of the singlet oxygen emission endogenously produced by photosystem II reaction centre in an aqueous buffer.

PubMed

Li, Heng; Melø, Thor Bernt; Arellano, Juan B; Razi Naqvi, K

2012-04-01

The temporal profile of the phosphorescence of singlet oxygen endogenously photosensitized by photosystem II (PSII) reaction centre (RC) in an aqueous buffer has been recorded using laser excitation and a near infrared photomultiplier tube. A weak emission signal was discernible, and could be fitted to the functional form a[exp(-t/τ(2) - exp(-t/τ(1)], with a > 0 and τ(2) > τ(1). The value of τ(2) decreased from 11.6 ± 0.5 μs under aerobic conditions to 4.1 ± 0.2 μs in oxygen-saturated samples, due to enhanced bimolecular quenching of the donor triplet by oxygen, whereas that of τ(1), identifiable with the lifetime of singlet oxygen, was close to 3 μs in both cases. Extrapolations based on the low amplitude of the emission signal of singlet oxygen formed by PSII RC in the aqueous buffer and the expected values of τ(1) and τ(2) in chloroplasts indicate that attempts to analyse the temporal profile of singlet oxygen in chloroplasts are unlikely to be rewarded with success without a significant advance in the sensitivity of the detection equipment. © Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2012

Population structure of the giant garter snake, Thamnophis gigas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Paquin, M.M.; Wylie, G.D.; Routman, E.J.

2006-01-01

The giant garter snake, Thamnophis gigas, is a threatened species endemic to California's Central Valley. We tested the hypothesis that current watershed boundaries have caused genetic differentiation among populations of T. gigas. We sampled 14 populations throughout the current geographic range of T. gigas and amplified 859 bp from the mitochondrial gene ND4 and one nuclear microsatellite locus. DNA sequence variation from the mitochondrial gene indicates there is some genetic structuring of the populations, with high F ST values and unique haplotypes occurring at high frequency in several populations. We found that clustering populations by watershed boundary results in significant between-region genetic variance for mtDNA. However, analysis of allele frequencies at the microsatellite locus NSU3 reveals very low F ST values and little between-region variation in allele frequencies. The discordance found between mitochondrial and microsatellite data may be explained by aspects of molecular evolution and/or T. gigas life history characteristics. Differences in effective population size between mitochondrial and nuclear DNA, or male-biased gene flow, result in a lower migration rate of mitochondrial haplotypes relative to nuclear alleles. However, we cannot exclude homoplasy as one explanation for homogeneity found for the single microsatellite locus. The mitochondrial nucleotide sequence data supports conservation practices that identify separate management units for T. gigas. ?? Springer 2006.

A Metastatistical Approach to Satellite Estimates of Extreme Rainfall Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zorzetto, E.; Marani, M.

2017-12-01

The estimation of the average recurrence interval of intense rainfall events is a central issue for both hydrologic modeling and engineering design. These estimates require the inference of the properties of the right tail of the statistical distribution of precipitation, a task often performed using the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution, estimated either from a samples of annual maxima (AM) or with a peaks over threshold (POT) approach. However, these approaches require long and homogeneous rainfall records, which often are not available, especially in the case of remote-sensed rainfall datasets. We use here, and tailor it to remotely-sensed rainfall estimates, an alternative approach, based on the metastatistical extreme value distribution (MEVD), which produces estimates of rainfall extreme values based on the probability distribution function (pdf) of all measured `ordinary' rainfall event. This methodology also accounts for the interannual variations observed in the pdf of daily rainfall by integrating over the sample space of its random parameters. We illustrate the application of this framework to the TRMM Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis rainfall dataset, where MEVD optimally exploits the relatively short datasets of satellite-sensed rainfall, while taking full advantage of its high spatial resolution and quasi-global coverage. Accuracy of TRMM precipitation estimates and scale issues are here investigated for a case study located in the Little Washita watershed, Oklahoma, using a dense network of rain gauges for independent ground validation. The methodology contributes to our understanding of the risk of extreme rainfall events, as it allows i) an optimal use of the TRMM datasets in estimating the tail of the probability distribution of daily rainfall, and ii) a global mapping of daily rainfall extremes and distributional tail properties, bridging the existing gaps in rain gauges networks.

Assessing the Implications of Changing Extreme Value Distributions of Weather on Carbon and Water Cycling in Grasslands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brunsell, N. A.; Nippert, J. B.

2011-12-01

As the climate warms, it is generally acknowledged that the number and magnitude of extreme weather events will increase. We examined an ecophysiological model's responses to precipitation and temperature anomalies in relation to the mean and variance of annual precipitation along a pronounced precipitation gradient from eastern to western Kansas. This natural gradient creates a template of potential responses for both the mean and variance of annual precipitation to compare the timescales of carbon and water fluxes. Using data from several Ameriflux sites (KZU and KFS) and a third eddy covariance tower (K4B) along the gradient, BIOME-BGC was used to characterize water and carbon cycle responses to extreme weather events. Changes in the extreme value distributions were based on SRES A1B and A2 scenarios using an ensemble mean of 21 GCMs for the region, downscaled using a stochastic weather generator. We focused on changing the timing and magnitude of precipitation and altering the diurnal and seasonal temperature ranges. Biome-BGC was then forced with daily output from the stochastic weather generator, and we examined how potential changes in these extreme value distributions impact carbon and water cycling at the sites across the Kansas precipitation gradient at time scales ranging from daily to interannual. To decompose the time scales of response, we applied a wavelet based information theory analysis approach. Results indicate impacts in soil moisture memory and carbon allocation processes, which vary in response to both the mean and variance of precipitation along the precipitation gradient. These results suggest a more pronounced focus ecosystem responses to extreme events across a range of temporal scales in order to fully characterize the water and carbon cycle responses to global climate change.

Big climate data analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mudelsee, Manfred

2015-04-01

The Big Data era has begun also in the climate sciences, not only in economics or molecular biology. We measure climate at increasing spatial resolution by means of satellites and look farther back in time at increasing temporal resolution by means of natural archives and proxy data. We use powerful supercomputers to run climate models. The model output of the calculations made for the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report amounts to ~650 TB. The 'scientific evolution' of grid computing has started, and the 'scientific revolution' of quantum computing is being prepared. This will increase computing power, and data amount, by several orders of magnitude in the future. However, more data does not automatically mean more knowledge. We need statisticians, who are at the core of transforming data into knowledge. Statisticians notably also explore the limits of our knowledge (uncertainties, that is, confidence intervals and P-values). Mudelsee (2014 Climate Time Series Analysis: Classical Statistical and Bootstrap Methods. Second edition. Springer, Cham, xxxii + 454 pp.) coined the term 'optimal estimation'. Consider the hyperspace of climate estimation. It has many, but not infinite, dimensions. It consists of the three subspaces Monte Carlo design, method and measure. The Monte Carlo design describes the data generating process. The method subspace describes the estimation and confidence interval construction. The measure subspace describes how to detect the optimal estimation method for the Monte Carlo experiment. The envisaged large increase in computing power may bring the following idea of optimal climate estimation into existence. Given a data sample, some prior information (e.g. measurement standard errors) and a set of questions (parameters to be estimated), the first task is simple: perform an initial estimation on basis of existing knowledge and experience with such types of estimation problems. The second task requires the computing power: explore the hyperspace to find the suitable method, that is, the mode of estimation and uncertainty-measure determination that optimizes a selected measure for prescribed values close to the initial estimates. Also here, intelligent exploration methods (gradient, Brent, etc.) are useful. The third task is to apply the optimal estimation method to the climate dataset. This conference paper illustrates by means of three examples that optimal estimation has the potential to shape future big climate data analysis. First, we consider various hypothesis tests to study whether climate extremes are increasing in their occurrence. Second, we compare Pearson's and Spearman's correlation measures. Third, we introduce a novel estimator of the tail index, which helps to better quantify climate-change related risks.

Exact extreme-value statistics at mixed-order transitions.

PubMed

Bar, Amir; Majumdar, Satya N; Schehr, Grégory; Mukamel, David

2016-05-01

We study extreme-value statistics for spatially extended models exhibiting mixed-order phase transitions (MOT). These are phase transitions that exhibit features common to both first-order (discontinuity of the order parameter) and second-order (diverging correlation length) transitions. We consider here the truncated inverse distance squared Ising model, which is a prototypical model exhibiting MOT, and study analytically the extreme-value statistics of the domain lengths The lengths of the domains are identically distributed random variables except for the global constraint that their sum equals the total system size L. In addition, the number of such domains is also a fluctuating variable, and not fixed. In the paramagnetic phase, we show that the distribution of the largest domain length l_{max} converges, in the large L limit, to a Gumbel distribution. However, at the critical point (for a certain range of parameters) and in the ferromagnetic phase, we show that the fluctuations of l_{max} are governed by novel distributions, which we compute exactly. Our main analytical results are verified by numerical simulations.

Estimating maximum instantaneous distortion from inlet total pressure rms and PSD measurements. [Root Mean Square and Power Spectral Density methods

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Melick, H. C., Jr.; Ybarra, A. H.; Bencze, D. P.

1975-01-01

An inexpensive method is developed to determine the extreme values of instantaneous inlet distortion. This method also provides insight into the basic mechanics of unsteady inlet flow and the associated engine reaction. The analysis is based on fundamental fluid dynamics and statistical methods to provide an understanding of the turbulent inlet flow and quantitatively relate the rms level and power spectral density (PSD) function of the measured time variant total pressure fluctuations to the strength and size of the low pressure regions. The most probable extreme value of the instantaneous distortion is then synthesized from this information in conjunction with the steady state distortion. Results of the analysis show the extreme values to be dependent upon the steady state distortion, the measured turbulence rms level and PSD function, the time on point, and the engine response characteristics. Analytical projections of instantaneous distortion are presented and compared with data obtained by a conventional, highly time correlated, 40 probe instantaneous pressure measurement system.

A Non-Stationary Approach for Estimating Future Hydroclimatic Extremes Using Monte-Carlo Simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Byun, K.; Hamlet, A. F.

2017-12-01

There is substantial evidence that observed hydrologic extremes (e.g. floods, extreme stormwater events, and low flows) are changing and that climate change will continue to alter the probability distributions of hydrologic extremes over time. These non-stationary risks imply that conventional approaches for designing hydrologic infrastructure (or making other climate-sensitive decisions) based on retrospective analysis and stationary statistics will become increasingly problematic through time. To develop a framework for assessing risks in a non-stationary environment our study develops a new approach using a super ensemble of simulated hydrologic extremes based on Monte Carlo (MC) methods. Specifically, using statistically downscaled future GCM projections from the CMIP5 archive (using the Hybrid Delta (HD) method), we extract daily precipitation (P) and temperature (T) at 1/16 degree resolution based on a group of moving 30-yr windows within a given design lifespan (e.g. 10, 25, 50-yr). Using these T and P scenarios we simulate daily streamflow using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model for each year of the design lifespan and fit a Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) probability distribution to the simulated annual extremes. MC experiments are then used to construct a random series of 10,000 realizations of the design lifespan, estimating annual extremes using the estimated unique GEV parameters for each individual year of the design lifespan. Our preliminary results for two watersheds in Midwest show that there are considerable differences in the extreme values for a given percentile between conventional MC and non-stationary MC approach. Design standards based on our non-stationary approach are also directly dependent on the design lifespan of infrastructure, a sensitivity which is notably absent from conventional approaches based on retrospective analysis. The experimental approach can be applied to a wide range of hydroclimatic variables of interest.

Spatial variability of extreme rainfall at radar subpixel scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peleg, Nadav; Marra, Francesco; Fatichi, Simone; Paschalis, Athanasios; Molnar, Peter; Burlando, Paolo

2018-01-01

Extreme rainfall is quantified in engineering practice using Intensity-Duration-Frequency curves (IDF) that are traditionally derived from rain-gauges and more recently also from remote sensing instruments, such as weather radars. These instruments measure rainfall at different spatial scales: rain-gauge samples rainfall at the point scale while weather radar averages precipitation on a relatively large area, generally around 1 km2. As such, a radar derived IDF curve is representative of the mean areal rainfall over a given radar pixel and neglects the within-pixel rainfall variability. In this study, we quantify subpixel variability of extreme rainfall by using a novel space-time rainfall generator (STREAP model) that downscales in space the rainfall within a given radar pixel. The study was conducted using a unique radar data record (23 years) and a very dense rain-gauge network in the Eastern Mediterranean area (northern Israel). Radar-IDF curves, together with an ensemble of point-based IDF curves representing the radar subpixel extreme rainfall variability, were developed fitting Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distributions to annual rainfall maxima. It was found that the mean areal extreme rainfall derived from the radar underestimate most of the extreme values computed for point locations within the radar pixel (on average, ∼70%). The subpixel variability of rainfall extreme was found to increase with longer return periods and shorter durations (e.g. from a maximum variability of 10% for a return period of 2 years and a duration of 4 h to 30% for 50 years return period and 20 min duration). For the longer return periods, a considerable enhancement of extreme rainfall variability was found when stochastic (natural) climate variability was taken into account. Bounding the range of the subpixel extreme rainfall derived from radar-IDF can be of major importance for different applications that require very local estimates of rainfall extremes.

Capturing spatial and temporal patterns of widespread, extreme flooding across Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Busby, Kathryn; Raven, Emma; Liu, Ye

2013-04-01

Statistical characterisation of physical hazards is an integral part of probabilistic catastrophe models used by the reinsurance industry to estimate losses from large scale events. Extreme flood events are not restricted by country boundaries which poses an issue for reinsurance companies as their exposures often extend beyond them. We discuss challenges and solutions that allow us to appropriately capture the spatial and temporal dependence of extreme hydrological events on a continental-scale, which in turn enables us to generate an industry-standard stochastic event set for estimating financial losses for widespread flooding. By presenting our event set methodology, we focus on explaining how extreme value theory (EVT) and dependence modelling are used to account for short, inconsistent hydrological data from different countries, and how to make appropriate statistical decisions that best characterise the nature of flooding across Europe. The consistency of input data is of vital importance when identifying historical flood patterns. Collating data from numerous sources inherently causes inconsistencies and we demonstrate our robust approach to assessing the data and refining it to compile a single consistent dataset. This dataset is then extrapolated using a parameterised EVT distribution to estimate extremes. Our method then captures the dependence of flood events across countries using an advanced multivariate extreme value model. Throughout, important statistical decisions are explored including: (1) distribution choice; (2) the threshold to apply for extracting extreme data points; (3) a regional analysis; (4) the definition of a flood event, which is often linked with reinsurance industry's hour's clause; and (5) handling of missing values. Finally, having modelled the historical patterns of flooding across Europe, we sample from this model to generate our stochastic event set comprising of thousands of events over thousands of years. We then briefly illustrate how this is applied within a probabilistic model to estimate catastrophic loss curves used by the reinsurance industry.

Calculating p-values and their significances with the Energy Test for large datasets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barter, W.; Burr, C.; Parkes, C.

2018-04-01

The energy test method is a multi-dimensional test of whether two samples are consistent with arising from the same underlying population, through the calculation of a single test statistic (called the T-value). The method has recently been used in particle physics to search for samples that differ due to CP violation. The generalised extreme value function has previously been used to describe the distribution of T-values under the null hypothesis that the two samples are drawn from the same underlying population. We show that, in a simple test case, the distribution is not sufficiently well described by the generalised extreme value function. We present a new method, where the distribution of T-values under the null hypothesis when comparing two large samples can be found by scaling the distribution found when comparing small samples drawn from the same population. This method can then be used to quickly calculate the p-values associated with the results of the test.

Determining octanol-water partition coefficients for extremely hydrophobic chemicals by combining "slow stirring" and solid-phase microextraction.

PubMed

Jonker, Michiel T O

2016-06-01

Octanol-water partition coefficients (KOW ) are widely used in fate and effects modeling of chemicals. Still, high-quality experimental KOW data are scarce, in particular for very hydrophobic chemicals. This hampers reliable assessments of several fate and effect parameters and the development and validation of new models. One reason for the limited availability of experimental values may relate to the challenging nature of KOW measurements. In the present study, KOW values for 13 polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons were determined with the gold standard "slow-stirring" method (log KOW 4.6-7.2). These values were then used as reference data for the development of an alternative method for measuring KOW . This approach combined slow stirring and equilibrium sampling of the extremely low aqueous concentrations with polydimethylsiloxane-coated solid-phase microextraction fibers, applying experimentally determined fiber-water partition coefficients. It resulted in KOW values matching the slow-stirring data very well. Therefore, the method was subsequently applied to a series of 17 moderately to extremely hydrophobic petrochemical compounds. The obtained KOW values spanned almost 6 orders of magnitude, with the highest value measuring 10(10.6) . The present study demonstrates that the hydrophobicity domain within which experimental KOW measurements are possible can be extended with the help of solid-phase microextraction and that experimentally determined KOW values can exceed the proposed upper limit of 10(9) . Environ Toxicol Chem 2016;35:1371-1377. © 2015 SETAC. © 2015 SETAC.

Changes in seasonal streamflow extremes experienced in rivers of Northwestern South America (Colombia)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pierini, J. O.; Restrepo, J. C.; Aguirre, J.; Bustamante, A. M.; Velásquez, G. J.

2017-04-01

A measure of the variability in seasonal extreme streamflow was estimated for the Colombian Caribbean coast, using monthly time series of freshwater discharge from ten watersheds. The aim was to detect modifications in the streamflow monthly distribution, seasonal trends, variance and extreme monthly values. A 20-year length time moving window, with 1-year successive shiftments, was applied to the monthly series to analyze the seasonal variability of streamflow. The seasonal-windowed data were statistically fitted through the Gamma distribution function. Scale and shape parameters were computed using the Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) and the bootstrap method for 1000 resample. A trend analysis was performed for each windowed-serie, allowing to detect the window of maximum absolute values for trends. Significant temporal shifts in seasonal streamflow distribution and quantiles (QT), were obtained for different frequencies. Wet and dry extremes periods increased significantly in the last decades. Such increase did not occur simultaneously through the region. Some locations exhibited continuous increases only at minimum QT.

Precipitation extremes and their relation to climatic indices in the Pacific Northwest USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zarekarizi, Mahkameh; Rana, Arun; Moradkhani, Hamid

2018-06-01

There has been focus on the influence of climate indices on precipitation extremes in the literature. Current study presents the evaluation of the precipitation-based extremes in Columbia River Basin (CRB) in the Pacific Northwest USA. We first analyzed the precipitation-based extremes using statistically (ten GCMs) and dynamically downscaled (three GCMs) past and future climate projections. Seven precipitation-based indices that help inform about the flood duration/intensity are used. These indices help in attaining first-hand information on spatial and temporal scales for different service sectors including energy, agriculture, forestry etc. Evaluation of these indices is first performed in historical period (1971-2000) followed by analysis of their relation to large scale tele-connections. Further we mapped these indices over the area to evaluate the spatial variation of past and future extremes in downscaled and observational data. The analysis shows that high values of extreme indices are clustered in either western or northern parts of the basin for historical period whereas the northern part is experiencing higher degree of change in the indices for future scenario. The focus is also on evaluating the relation of these extreme indices to climate tele-connections in historical period to understand their relationship with extremes over CRB. Various climate indices are evaluated for their relationship using Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Singular Value Decomposition (SVD). Results indicated that, out of 13 climate tele-connections used in the study, CRB is being most affected inversely by East Pacific (EP), Western Pacific (WP), East Atlantic (EA) and North Atlaentic Oscillation (NAO).

Composable Distributed Access Control and Integrity Policies for Query-Based Wireless Sensor Networks

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-03-01

unaltered during transmission and verified with data authentication. Data Freshness describes the ordering and currency of data. Strong freshness is a total...Advances in Cryptology — Crypto ’97, volume 1294 of Lecture Notes in Computer Science, pages 180–197. Springer-Verlag, Berlin, 1997. GS04. Saurabh

Successful Secondary School Principalship in Disadvantaged Contexts from a Leadership for Learning Perspective

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Moral, Cristina; Martín-Romera, Ana; Martínez-Valdivia, Estefanía; Olmo-Extremera, Marta

2018-01-01

The paper we present here is part of the International Successful School Principalship Project (ISSPP), which is designed to analyse the characteristic traits of successful leadership in different contexts and countries [Day, C., and K. Leithwood. 2007. "Successful School Leadership in Times of Change." Dordrecht: Springer-Kluwer; Day,…

77 FR 39727 - Poarch Band of Creek Indians-Alcohol Beverage Control Ordinance

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-07-05

... and the delivery of tribal services. DATES: Effective Date: This Amendment is effective 30 days after..., Telephone: (615) 564-6750; Fax: (615) 564-6701; or, De Springer, Office of Indian Services, Bureau of Indian..., Beer, and wine, both fortified and table wine. (b) ``Applicant'' means any individual, entity, or...

A note on the Goodman Jack

USGS Publications Warehouse

Swolfs, H.S.; Kibler, J.D.

1982-01-01

A Note on the Goodman Jack: Reconnaissance experiments, performed to evaluate the practical utility of the hard-rock variety of the Goodman Jack, reveal that the Hustrulid-T* correction adequately reconciles the discrepancy between the measured and true deformation modulus of the rock mass in the range of 30 to 50 gigapascals. ?? 1982 Springer-Verlag.

Ionic Liquids as Solvent, Catalyst Support Chemical Agent Decontamination and Detoxification

DTIC Science & Technology

2004-12-15

agents. 8 3.2 Reactions in surfactant systems Currie studied the reaction between 3-bromo-1-propanol and phenol and a series of phenols carrying...Liquids; Knoche, W., Schomacker, R., Eds.; Springer-Verlag: New York, 1998, pp 1-10. (52) Gonzaga , F.; Perez, E.; Rico-Lattes, I.; Lattes, A. New Journal

A Deep Learning Pipeline for Image Understanding and Acoustic Modeling

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-01-01

Analysis and Machine Intelligence, 2013. in press. 11 [40] Manen , S, Guillaumin, M, and Van Gool, L. Prime object proposals with random- ized prims...proposals. In Computer Vision–ECCV 2010, pages 575–588. Springer, 2010. 11 [43] Uijlings, J. R. R, van de Sande, K. E. A, Gevers, T, and Smeulders, A

System Theoretic Models for High Density VLSI Structures

DTIC Science & Technology

1989-01-01

vector is also called a stable We first present a simple example to help visualize how vector of the AMN. The set of all stable vectors is denoted these...New York: Springer- Verlag. 1978. 1980 [34] B. De Finetti. "Funtzione catatteristica di un fenomeno aleato- , [16] W A Little. "The existence of

Recovering a Probabilistic Knowledge Structure by Constraining Its Parameter Space

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stefanutti, Luca; Robusto, Egidio

2009-01-01

In the Basic Local Independence Model (BLIM) of Doignon and Falmagne ("Knowledge Spaces," Springer, Berlin, 1999), the probabilistic relationship between the latent knowledge states and the observable response patterns is established by the introduction of a pair of parameters for each of the problems: a lucky guess probability and a careless…

Data used in Xu et al., 2016

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Mercury emissions data from anthropogenic sources as described in Xu et al., 2016.This dataset is associated with the following publication:Xu, X., N. Liu, M. Landis, X. Feng, and G. Qiu. Characteristics and distributions of atmospheric mercury emitted from anthropogenic sources in Guiyang, southwestern China. Acta Geochimica. Springer, Heidelburg, GERMANY, 1-11, (2016).

Note on the chromatographic analyses of marine polyunsaturated fatty acids

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schultz, D.M.; Quinn, J.G.

1977-01-01

Gas-liquid chromatography was used to study the effects of saponification/methylation and thin-layer chromatographic isolation on the analyses of polyunsaturated fatty acids. Using selected procedures, the qualitative and quantitative distribution of these acids in marine organisms can be determined with a high degree of accuracy. ?? 1977 Springer-Verlag.

A Software Hub for High Assurance Model-Driven Development and Analysis

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-01-23

verification of UML models in TLPVS. In Thomas Baar, Alfred Strohmeier, Ana Moreira, and Stephen J. Mellor, editors, UML 2004 - The Unified Modeling...volume 3785 of Lecture Notes in Computer Science, pages 52–65, Manchester, UK, Nov 2005. Springer. [GH04] Günter Graw and Peter Herrmann. Transformation

Approximate Subgraph Isomorphism for Image Localization (Author’s Manuscript)

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-02-18

a working database for feature matching methods is nearly impossible to generate. In a proof of feasibility, Bansal et. al. [2] claim that overhead...of images in mountainous terrain. In Computer Vision–ECCV 2012, pages 517–530. Springer, 2012. 1 [2] M. Bansal , H. S. Sawhney, H. Cheng, and K

Firefighting and Emergency Response Study of Advanced Composites Aircraft. Objective 4: Post Fire Decontamination of Personal Protection Equipment

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-11-01

correlating with the common use of graphite-epoxy composites in aerospace materials. Ghandi and Lyon identify two primary exposure routes from...Materials, Springer, Dordrecht, The Netherlands, 2006; Chapter 12, “Health Hazards of Composites in Fire”. 5. Sanjeev Ghandi and Richard E. Lyon, Health

Author Correction to: Pooled Analyses of Phase III Studies of ADS-5102 (Amantadine) Extended-Release Capsules for Dyskinesia in Parkinson's Disease.

PubMed

Elmer, Lawrence W; Juncos, Jorge L; Singer, Carlos; Truong, Daniel D; Criswell, Susan R; Parashos, Sotirios; Felt, Larissa; Johnson, Reed; Patni, Rajiv

2018-04-01

An Online First version of this article was made available online at http://link.springer.com/journal/40263/onlineFirst/page/1 on 12 March 2018. An error was subsequently identified in the article, and the following correction should be noted.

Concatenations of the Hidden Weighted Bit Function and Their Cryptographic Properties

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-01-01

a collection of information if it does not display a currently valid OMB control number. 1. REPORT DATE 2014 2. REPORT TYPE 3. DATES COVERED 00...nonlinearity, in Advances in Cryptology – ASIACRYPT 2008 , Springer-Verlag, 2008, 425–440. [6] C. Carlet and K. Feng, An infinite class of balanced vectorial

The Ecology and Acoustic Behavior of Minke Whales in the Hawaiian and Pacific Islands

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-09-30

with similar acoustic behaviors. RELATED PROJECTS Related projects are being conducted by Len Thomas, Vincent Janik, and Steve Martin. These...Cork, Ireland. 15-20 Aug. (Proceedings to be published by Springer). Marques, T.A., L. Thomas, S.W. Martin, D.K. Mellinger, S. Jarvis , R.P

The Ecology and Acoustic Behavior of Minke Whales in the Hawaiian and other Pacific Islands

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-09-30

encountered visually in the Central and western subtropical Pacific. 5 RELATED PROJECTS Related projects by Len Thomas and Steve Martin including...published by Springer). Marques, T.A., L. Thomas, S.W. Martin, D.K. Mellinger, S. Jarvis , R.P. Morrissey, C. Ciminello, and N.DiMarzio, 2010

Profiles of Merit Pay Provisions in Ohio School Districts

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Willis, Chris; Ingle, W. Kyle

2018-01-01

A small number of districts in Ohio from a variety of locales have adopted merit pay provisions. Using Springer's (2009) taxonomy of teacher compensation, we analyzed compensation provisions of these districts. We asked: What are the characteristics of these districts? What criteria are used to determine merit? Who is determining who receives…

E-Books in the Sciences: If We Buy It Will They Use It?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nariani, Rajiv

2009-01-01

York University, Toronto, Canada has been acquiring e-books from different publishers and content providers. At present our University subscribes to electronic content from NetLibrary, ebrary, EBL, Oxford Scholarship Online, Oxford Reference Online, MyiLibrary, Safari, Springer, Oxford University Press, Knovel, Books24x7, Synthesis Engineering…

Kolmogorov-Smirnov test for spatially correlated data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Olea, R.A.; Pawlowsky-Glahn, V.

2009-01-01

The Kolmogorov-Smirnov test is a convenient method for investigating whether two underlying univariate probability distributions can be regarded as undistinguishable from each other or whether an underlying probability distribution differs from a hypothesized distribution. Application of the test requires that the sample be unbiased and the outcomes be independent and identically distributed, conditions that are violated in several degrees by spatially continuous attributes, such as topographical elevation. A generalized form of the bootstrap method is used here for the purpose of modeling the distribution of the statistic D of the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. The innovation is in the resampling, which in the traditional formulation of bootstrap is done by drawing from the empirical sample with replacement presuming independence. The generalization consists of preparing resamplings with the same spatial correlation as the empirical sample. This is accomplished by reading the value of unconditional stochastic realizations at the sampling locations, realizations that are generated by simulated annealing. The new approach was tested by two empirical samples taken from an exhaustive sample closely following a lognormal distribution. One sample was a regular, unbiased sample while the other one was a clustered, preferential sample that had to be preprocessed. Our results show that the p-value for the spatially correlated case is always larger that the p-value of the statistic in the absence of spatial correlation, which is in agreement with the fact that the information content of an uncorrelated sample is larger than the one for a spatially correlated sample of the same size. ?? Springer-Verlag 2008.

Ecological values of shallow-water habitats: Implications for the restoration of disturbed ecosystems

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lopez, C.B.; Cloern, J.E.; Schraga, T.S.; Little, A.J.; Lucas, L.V.; Thompson, J.K.; Burau, J.R.

2006-01-01

A presumed value of shallow-habitat enhanced pelagic productivity derives from the principle that in nutrient-rich aquatic systems phytoplankton growth rate is controlled by light availability, which varies inversely with habitat depth. We measured a set of biological indicators across the gradient of habitat depth within the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta (California) to test the hypothesis that plankton biomass, production, and pelagic energy flow also vary systematically with habitat depth. Results showed that phytoplankton biomass and production were only weakly related to phytoplankton growth rates whereas other processes (transport, consumption) were important controls. Distribution of the invasive clam Corbicula fluminea was patchy, and heavily colonized habitats all supported low phytoplankton biomass and production and functioned as food sinks. Surplus primary production in shallow, uncolonized habitats provided potential subsidies to neighboring recipient habitats. Zooplankton in deeper habitats, where grazing exceeded phytoplankton production, were likely supported by significant fluxes of phytoplankton biomass from connected donor habitats. Our results provide three important lessons for ecosystem science: (a) in the absence of process measurements, derived indices provide valuable information to improve our mechanistic understanding of ecosystem function and to benefit adaptive management strategies; (b) the benefits of some ecosystem functions are displaced by water movements, so the value of individual habitat types can only be revealed through a regional perspective that includes connectedness among habitats; and (c) invasive species can act as overriding controls of habitat function, adding to the uncertainty of management outcomes. ?? 2006 Springer Science+Business Media, Inc.

Light-weight robot using piezoelectric motor, sensor and actuator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Zhen; Bao, Xiao-Qi; Varadan, Vijay K.; Varadan, Vasundara V.

1992-12-01

A prototype single-link, single-axis 'piezorobot' assembled in the laboratory is presented. It basically consists of a flexible arm with the piezoelectric sensors and actuators attached and a servo-controlled piezoelectric motor as the driver. The piezomotor has a diameter of 40 mm, a maximum speed of 520 rpm, and a maximum torque of 0.07 nm, and weighs about 0.07 kg. The 254-mm-long steel arm weighs about 0.0212 kg, including 0.0022 kg of piezoceramic pieces. This piezorobot is controlled by an IBM PC and can move to a programmed destination along a programmed path with quick start and stop responses and a very short settling time. The device's design is shown to be feasible; it has conceptually demonstrated its effectiveness for reducing the self-weight, using flexible linkage while controlling the vibration interferences, and reducing the settling time of a robotic arm. uly/August 1994 1994 7 Springer-Verlag 1994 BF02400853 10.1007/BF02400853 1 Sustainable development and deep ecology: An analysis of competing traditions Forum 477 488 2006 4 5 Springer-Verlag New York Inc 1994 267

A taxonomic index, with names of descriptive authorities of termite genera and species: an accompaniment to Biology of Termites: A Modern Synthesis (Bignell DE, Roisin Y, Lo N, Editors. 2011. Springer, Dordrecht. 576 pp.).

PubMed

Bignell, D E; Jones, D T

2014-01-01

Biology of Termites: A Modern Synthesis (Bignell DE, Roisin Y, Lo N, (Editors), Springer, Dordrecht, 576pp, ISBN 978-90-481-3976-7, e-ISBN 978-90-481-3977-4, DOI 10.1007/978-90-481-3977-4) was published in 2011. With the agreement of the publishers, we give a taxonomic index of the book comprising 494 termite entries, 103 entries of other multicellular animal species mentioned as associates or predators of termites, with 9 fungal, 60 protist, and 64 prokaryote identities, which are listed as termite symbionts (sensu stricto). In addition, we add descriptive authorities for living (and some fossil) termite genera and species. Higher taxonomic groupings for termites are indicated by 25 code numbers. Microorganisms (prokaryotes, protists, and fungi) are listed separately, using broad modern taxonomic affiliations from the contemporary literature of bacteriology, protozoology, and mycology. This is an open access paper. We use the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 license that permits unrestricted use, provided that the paper is properly attributed.

Chronic hepatitis in the English springer spaniel: clinical presentation, histological description and outcome.

PubMed

Bexfield, N H; Andres-Abdo, C; Scase, T J; Constantino-Casas, F; Watson, P J

2011-10-15

Medical records and liver histology of 68 English springer spaniels (ESS) with a histological diagnosis of CH were reviewed retrospectively. PCR was performed on liver tissue for canine adenovirus-1 (CAV-1), canine parvovirus, canine herpesvirus and pathogenic Leptospira species. Follow-up information was obtained to calculate survival times. Median age at presentation was three years seven months (range, seven months to eight years five months) and there were 48 female and 20 male dogs. Clinical signs were non-specific and five dogs were asymptomatic. All dogs had an increase in serum activity of one or more hepatobiliary enzymes. Histopathology demonstrated hepatocyte necrosis and apoptosis with varying amounts of fibrosis. A predominantly lymphoplasmacytic infiltrate throughout the hepatic parenchyma was found in all 68 dogs, but 45 of these dogs also had a neutrophilic component to the inflammatory infiltrate. There was no significant copper accumulation and no aetiological agent was identified by PCR. The median survival time was 189 days (range, 1 to 1211 days), 38 dogs died within three months and 12 dogs survived more than a year following diagnosis.

Invited Article: Visualisation of extreme value events in optical communications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Derevyanko, Stanislav; Redyuk, Alexey; Vergeles, Sergey; Turitsyn, Sergei

2018-06-01

Fluctuations of a temporal signal propagating along long-haul transoceanic scale fiber links can be visualised in the spatio-temporal domain drawing visual analogy with ocean waves. Substantial overlapping of information symbols or use of multi-frequency signals leads to strong statistical deviations of local peak power from an average signal power level. We consider long-haul optical communication systems from this unusual angle, treating them as physical systems with a huge number of random statistical events, including extreme value fluctuations that potentially might affect the quality of data transmission. We apply the well-established concepts of adaptive wavefront shaping used in imaging through turbid medium to detect the detrimental phase modulated sequences in optical communications that can cause extreme power outages (rare optical waves of ultra-high amplitude) during propagation down the ultra-long fiber line. We illustrate the concept by a theoretical analysis of rare events of high-intensity fluctuations—optical freak waves, taking as an example an increasingly popular optical frequency division multiplexing data format where the problem of high peak to average power ratio is the most acute. We also show how such short living extreme value spikes in the optical data streams are affected by nonlinearity and demonstrate the negative impact of such events on the system performance.

Characteristics and present trends of wave extremes in the Mediterranean Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pino, Cosimo; Lionello, Piero; Galati, Maria Barbara

2010-05-01

Wind generated surface waves are an important factor characterizing marine storminess and the marine environment. This contribution considers characteristics and trends of SWH (Significant Wave Height) extremes (both high and low extremes, such as dead calm duration are analyzed). The data analysis is based on a 44-year long simulation (1958-2001) of the wave field in the Mediterranean Sea. The quality of the model simulation is controlled using satellite data. The results show the different characteristics of the different parts of the basin with the variability being higher in the western (where the highest values are produced) than in the eastern areas of the basin (where absence of wave is a rare condition). In fact, both duration of storms and of dead calm episodes is larger in the east than in the west part of the Mediterranean. The African coast and the southern Ionian Sea are the areas were exceptional values of SWH are expected to occur in correspondence with exceptional meteorological events. Significant trends of storm characteristics are present only in sparse areas and suggest a decrease of both storm intensity and duration (a marginal increase of storm intensity is present in the center of the Mediterranean). The statistics of extremes and high SWH values is substantially steady during the second half of the 20th century. The influence of the large-scale teleconnection patterns (TlcP) that are known to be relevant for the Mediterranean climate on the intensity and spatial distribution of extreme SWH (Significant Wave Height) has been investigated. The analysis was focused on the monthly scale analysing the variability of links along the annual cycle. The considered TlcP are the North Atlantic Oscillation, the East-Atlantic / West-Russian pattern and the Scandinavian pattern and their effect on the intensity and the frequency of high/low SWH conditions. The results show it is difficult to establish a dominant TlcP for SWH extremes, because all 4 patterns considered are important for at least few months in the year and none of them is important for the whole year. High extremes in winter and fall are more influenced by the TlcPs than in other seasons and low extremes.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ashouri, Hamed; Sorooshian, Soroosh; Hsu, Kuo-Lin

This study evaluates the performance of NASA's Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) precipitation product in reproducing the trend and distribution of extreme precipitation events. Utilizing the extreme value theory, time-invariant and time-variant extreme value distributions are developed to model the trends and changes in the patterns of extreme precipitation events over the contiguous United States during 1979-2010. The Climate Prediction Center (CPC)U.S.Unified gridded observation data are used as the observational dataset. The CPC analysis shows that the eastern and western parts of the United States are experiencing positive and negative trends in annual maxima, respectively. The continental-scalemore » patterns of change found in MERRA seem to reasonably mirror the observed patterns of change found in CPC. This is not previously expected, given the difficulty in constraining precipitation in reanalysis products. MERRA tends to overestimate the frequency at which the 99th percentile of precipitation is exceeded because this threshold tends to be lower in MERRA, making it easier to be exceeded. This feature is dominant during the summer months. MERRAtends to reproduce spatial patterns of the scale and location parameters of the generalized extreme value and generalized Pareto distributions. However, MERRA underestimates these parameters, particularly over the Gulf Coast states, leading to lower magnitudes in extreme precipitation events. Two issues in MERRA are identified: 1)MERRAshows a spurious negative trend in Nebraska andKansas, which ismost likely related to the changes in the satellite observing system over time that has apparently affected the water cycle in the central United States, and 2) the patterns of positive trend over theGulf Coast states and along the East Coast seem to be correlated with the tropical cyclones in these regions. The analysis of the trends in the seasonal precipitation extremes indicates that the hurricane and winter seasons are contributing the most to these trend patterns in the southeastern United States. The increasing annual trend simulated by MERRA in the Gulf Coast region is due to an incorrect trend in winter precipitation extremes.« less

Cumulative hazard: The case of nuisance flooding

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moftakhari, Hamed R.; AghaKouchak, Amir; Sanders, Brett F.; Matthew, Richard A.

2017-02-01

The cumulative cost of frequent events (e.g., nuisance floods) over time may exceed the costs of the extreme but infrequent events for which societies typically prepare. Here we analyze the likelihood of exceedances above mean higher high water and the corresponding property value exposure for minor, major, and extreme coastal floods. Our results suggest that, in response to sea level rise, nuisance flooding (NF) could generate property value exposure comparable to, or larger than, extreme events. Determining whether (and when) low cost, nuisance incidents aggregate into high cost impacts and deciding when to invest in preventive measures are among the most difficult decisions for policymakers. It would be unfortunate if efforts to protect societies from extreme events (e.g., 0.01 annual probability) left them exposed to a cumulative hazard with enormous costs. We propose a Cumulative Hazard Index (CHI) as a tool for framing the future cumulative impact of low cost incidents relative to infrequent extreme events. CHI suggests that in New York, NY, Washington, DC, Miami, FL, San Francisco, CA, and Seattle, WA, a careful consideration of socioeconomic impacts of NF for prioritization is crucial for sustainable coastal flood risk management.

Extreme events and event size fluctuations in biased random walks on networks.

PubMed

Kishore, Vimal; Santhanam, M S; Amritkar, R E

2012-05-01

Random walk on discrete lattice models is important to understand various types of transport processes. The extreme events, defined as exceedences of the flux of walkers above a prescribed threshold, have been studied recently in the context of complex networks. This was motivated by the occurrence of rare events such as traffic jams, floods, and power blackouts which take place on networks. In this work, we study extreme events in a generalized random walk model in which the walk is preferentially biased by the network topology. The walkers preferentially choose to hop toward the hubs or small degree nodes. In this setting, we show that extremely large fluctuations in event sizes are possible on small degree nodes when the walkers are biased toward the hubs. In particular, we obtain the distribution of event sizes on the network. Further, the probability for the occurrence of extreme events on any node in the network depends on its "generalized strength," a measure of the ability of a node to attract walkers. The generalized strength is a function of the degree of the node and that of its nearest neighbors. We obtain analytical and simulation results for the probability of occurrence of extreme events on the nodes of a network using a generalized random walk model. The result reveals that the nodes with a larger value of generalized strength, on average, display lower probability for the occurrence of extreme events compared to the nodes with lower values of generalized strength.

When personality and culture clash: the psychological distress of allocentrics in an individualist culture and idiocentrics in a collectivist culture.

PubMed

Caldwell-Harris, Catherine L; Ayçiçegi, Ayse

2006-09-01

Because humans need both autonomy and interdependence, persons with either an extreme collectivist orientation (allocentrics) or extreme individualist values (idiocentrics) may be at risk for possession of some features of psychopathology. Is an extreme personality style a risk factor primarily when it conflicts with the values of the surrounding society? Individualism-collectivism scenarios and a battery of clinical and personality scales were administered to nonclinical samples of college students in Boston and Istanbul. For students residing in a highly individualistic society (Boston), collectivism scores were positively correlated with depression, social anxiety, obsessive-compulsive disorder and dependent personality. Individualism scores, particularly horizontal individualism, were negatively correlated with these same scales. A different pattern was obtained for students residing in a collectivist culture, Istanbul. Here individualism (and especially horizontal individualism) was positively correlated with scales for paranoid, schizoid, narcissistic, borderline and antisocial personality disorder. Collectivism (particularly vertical collectivism) was associated with low report of symptoms on these scales. These results indicate that having a personality style which conflicts with the values of society is associated with psychiatric symptoms. Having an orientation inconsistent with societal values may thus be a risk factor for poor mental health.

Projected Changes in Temperature and Precipitation Extremes over China as Measured by 50-yr Return Values and Periods Based on a CMIP5 Ensemble

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Ying; Gao, Xuejie; Giorgi, Filippo; Zhou, Botao; Shi, Ying; Wu, Jie; Zhang, Yongxiang

2018-04-01

Future changes in the 50-yr return level for temperature and precipitation extremes over mainland China are investigated based on a CMIP5 multi-model ensemble for RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The following indices are analyzed: TXx and TNn (the annual maximum and minimum of daily maximum and minimum surface temperature), RX5day (the annual maximum consecutive 5-day precipitation) and CDD (maximum annual number of consecutive dry days). After first validating the model performance, future changes in the 50-yr return values and return periods for these indices are investigated along with the inter-model spread. Multi-model median changes show an increase in the 50-yr return values of TXx and a decrease for TNn, more specifically, by the end of the 21st century under RCP8.5, the present day 50-yr return period of warm events is reduced to 1.2 yr, while extreme cold events over the country are projected to essentially disappear. A general increase in RX5day 50-yr return values is found in the future. By the end of the 21st century under RCP8.5, events of the present RX5day 50-yr return period are projected to reduce to < 10 yr over most of China. Changes in CDD-50 show a dipole pattern over China, with a decrease in the values and longer return periods in the north, and vice versa in the south. Our study also highlights the need for further improvements in the representation of extreme events in climate models to assess the future risks and engineering design related to large-scale infrastructure in China.

Extreme air-sea surface turbulent fluxes in mid latitudes - estimation, origins and mechanisms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gulev, Sergey; Natalia, Tilinina

2014-05-01

Extreme turbulent heat fluxes in the North Atlantic and North Pacific mid latitudes were estimated from the modern era and first generation reanalyses (NCEP-DOE, ERA-Interim, MERRA NCEP-CFSR, JRA-25) for the period from 1979 onwards. We used direct surface turbulent flux output as well as reanalysis state variables from which fluxes have been computed using COARE-3 bulk algorithm. For estimation of extreme flux values we analyzed surface flux probability density distribution which was approximated by Modified Fisher-Tippett distribution. In all reanalyses extreme turbulent heat fluxes amount to 1500-2000 W/m2 (for the 99th percentile) and can exceed 2000 W/m2 for higher percentiles in the western boundary current extension (WBCE) regions. Different reanalyses show significantly different shape of MFT distribution, implying considerable differences in the estimates of extreme fluxes. The highest extreme turbulent latent heat fluxes are diagnosed in NCEP-DOE, ERA-Interim and NCEP-CFSR reanalyses with the smallest being in MERRA. These differences may not necessarily reflect the differences in mean values. Analysis shows that differences in statistical properties of the state variables are the major source of differences in the shape of PDF of fluxes and in the estimates of extreme fluxes while the contribution of computational schemes used in different reanalyses is minor. The strongest differences in the characteristics of probability distributions of surface fluxes and extreme surface flux values between different reanalyses are found in the WBCE extension regions and high latitudes. In the next instance we analyzed the mechanisms responsible for forming surface turbulent fluxes and their potential role in changes of midlatitudinal heat balance. Midlatitudinal cyclones were considered as the major mechanism responsible for extreme turbulent fluxes which are typically occur during the cold air outbreaks in the rear parts of cyclones when atmospheric conditions provide locally high winds and air-sea temperature gradients. For this purpose we linked characteristics of cyclone activity over the midlatitudinal oceans with the extreme surface turbulent heat fluxes. Cyclone tracks and parameters of cyclone life cycle (deepening rates, propagation velocities, life time and clustering) were derived from the same reanalyses using state of the art numerical tracking algorithm. The main questions addressed in this study are (i) through which mechanisms extreme surface fluxes are associated with cyclone activity? and (ii) which types of cyclones are responsible for forming extreme turbulent fluxes? Our analysis shows that extreme surface fluxes are typically associated not with cyclones themselves but rather with cyclone-anticyclone interaction zones. This implies that North Atlantic and North Pacific series of intense cyclones do not result in the anomalous surface fluxes. Alternatively, extreme fluxes are most frequently associated with blocking situations, particularly with the intensification of the Siberian and North American Anticyclones providing cold-air outbreaks over WBC regions.

Linearized stability of extreme black holes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burko, Lior M.; Khanna, Gaurav

2018-03-01

Extreme black holes have been argued to be unstable, in the sense that under linearized gravitational perturbations of the extreme Kerr spacetime the Weyl scalar ψ4 blows up along their event horizons at very late advanced times. We show numerically, by solving the Teukolsky equation in 2 +1 D , that all algebraically independent curvature scalar polynomials approach limits that exist when advanced time along the event horizon approaches infinity. Therefore, the horizons of extreme black holes are stable against linearized gravitational perturbations. We argue that the divergence of ψ4 is a consequence of the choice of a fixed tetrad, and that in a suitable dynamical tetrad all Weyl scalars, including ψ4, approach their background extreme Kerr values. We make similar conclusions also for the case of scalar field perturbations of extreme Kerr.

Detection of Extremes with AIRS and CrIS

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Aumann, Hartmut H.; Manning, Evan M.; Behrangi, Ali

2013-01-01

Climate change is expected to be detected first as changes in extreme values rather than in mean values. The availability of data of from two instruments in the same orbit, AIRS data for the past eleven years and AIRS and CrIS data from the past year, provides an opportunity to evaluate this using examples of climate relevance: Desertification, seen as changes in hot extremes, severe storm, seen as a change in extremely cold clouds and the warming of the polar zone. We use AIRS to establish trends for the 1%tile, the mean and 99%tile brightness temperatures measured with the 900 cm(exp -1) channel from AIRS for the past 11 years. This channel is in the clearest part of the 11 micron atmospheric window. Substantial trends are seen for land and ocean, which in the case of the 1%tile (cold) extremes are related to the current shift of deep convection from ocean to land. Changes are also seen in the 99%tile for day tropical land, but their interpretation is at present unclear. We also see dramatic changes for the mean and 99%tile of the North Polar area. The trends are an order of magnitude larger than the instrument trend of about 3 mK/year. We use the statistical distribution from the past year derived from AIRS to evaluate the accuracy of continuing the trends established with AIRS with CrIS data. We minimize the concern about differences in the spectral response functions by limiting the analysis to the channel at 900 cm(exp -1).While the two instruments agree within 100 mK for the global day/night land/ocean mean values, there are significant differences when evaluating the1% and 99%tiles. We see a consistent warm bias in the CrIS data relative to AIRS for the 1%tile (extremely cold, cloudy) data in the tropical zone, particularly for tropical land, but the bias is not day/night land/ocean consistent. At this point the difference appears to be due to differences in the radiometric response of AIRS and CrIS to differences in the day/night land/ocean cloud types. Unless the effect can be mitigated by a future reprocessing the CrIS data, it will significantly complicate the concatenation of the AIRS and CrIS data records for the continuation of trends in extreme values.

Storms or cold fronts: what is really responsible for the extreme waves regime in the Colombian Caribbean coastal region?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Otero, L. J.; Ortiz-Royero, J. C.; Ruiz-Merchan, J. K.; Higgins, A. E.; Henriquez, S. A.

2016-02-01

The aim of this study is to determine the contribution and importance of cold fronts and storms to extreme waves in different areas of the Colombian Caribbean in an attempt to determine the extent of the threat posed by the flood processes to which these coastal populations are exposed. Furthermore, the study wishes to establish the actions to which coastal engineering constructions should be subject. In the calculation of maritime constructions, the most important parameter is the height of the wave. For this reason, it is necessary to establish the design wave height to which a coastal engineering structure should be resistant. This wave height varies according to the return period considered. The significant height values for the areas focused on in the study were calculated in accordance with Gumbel's extreme value methodology. The methodology was evaluated using data from the reanalysis of the spectral National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) WAVEWATCH III® (WW3) model for 15 points along the 1600 km of the Colombian Caribbean coastline (continental and insular) between the years 1979 and 2009. The results demonstrated that the extreme waves caused by tropical cyclones and those caused by cold fronts have different effects along the Colombian Caribbean coast. Storms and hurricanes are of greater importance in the Guajira Peninsula (Alta Guajira). In the central area (consisting of Baja Guajira, and the cities of Santa Marta, Barranquilla, and Cartagena), the strong impact of cold fronts on extreme waves is evident. However, in the southern region of the Colombian Caribbean coast (ranging from the Gulf of Morrosquillo to the Gulf of Urabá), the extreme values of wave heights are lower than in the previously mentioned regions, despite being dominated mainly by the passage of cold fronts. Extreme waves in the San Andrés and Providencia insular region present a different dynamic from that in the continental area due to their geographic location. The wave heights in the extreme regime are similar in magnitude to those found in Alta Guajira, but the extreme waves associated with the passage of cold fronts in this region have lower return periods than those associated with the hurricane season.

Assessment of climate change downscaling and non-stationarity on the spatial pattern of a mangrove ecosystem in an arid coastal region of southern Iran

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Etemadi, Halimeh; Samadi, S. Zahra; Sharifikia, Mohammad; Smoak, Joseph M.

2016-10-01

Mangrove wetlands exist in the transition zone between terrestrial and marine environments and have remarkable ecological and socio-economic value. This study uses climate change downscaling to address the question of non-stationarity influences on mangrove variations (expansion and contraction) within an arid coastal region. Our two-step approach includes downscaling models and uncertainty assessment, followed by a non-stationary and trend procedure using the Extreme Value Analysis (extRemes code). The Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator (LARS-WG) model along with two different general circulation model (GCMs) (MIRH and HadCM3) were used to downscale climatic variables during current (1968-2011) and future (2011-2030, 2045-2065, and 2080-2099) periods. Parametric and non-parametric bootstrapping uncertainty tests demonstrated that the LARS-WGS model skillfully downscaled climatic variables at the 95 % significance level. Downscaling results using MIHR model show that minimum and maximum temperatures will increase in the future (2011-2030, 2045-2065, and 2080-2099) during winter and summer in a range of +4.21 and +4.7 °C, and +3.62 and +3.55 °C, respectively. HadCM3 analysis also revealed an increase in minimum (˜+3.03 °C) and maximum (˜+3.3 °C) temperatures during wet and dry seasons. In addition, we examined how much mangrove area has changed during the past decades and, thus, if climate change non-stationarity impacts mangrove ecosystems. Our results using remote sensing techniques and the non-parametric Mann-Whitney two-sample test indicated a sharp decline in mangrove area during 1972,1987, and 1997 periods ( p value = 0.002). Non-stationary assessment using the generalized extreme value (GEV) distributions by including mangrove area as a covariate further indicated that the null hypothesis of the stationary climate (no trend) should be rejected due to the very low p values for precipitation ( p value = 0.0027), minimum ( p value = 0.000000029) and maximum ( p value = 0.00016) temperatures. Based on non-stationary analysis and an upward trend in downscaled temperature extremes, climate change may control mangrove development in the future.

Randolph AFB, San Antonio, Texas. Revised Uniform Summary of Surface Weather Observations (RUSSWO). Parts A-F.

DTIC Science & Technology

1982-02-08

is printed in any year-month block when the extreme value Is based on an in- complete month (at least one day missing for the month). When a month has...means, standard deviations, and total number of valid observations for each month and annual (all months). An asterisk (*) is printed n each data block...becomes the extreme or monthly total in any of these tables it is printed as "TRACE." Continued on Reverse Side Values ’or means and standard

Optical rogue-wave-like extreme value fluctuations in fiber Raman amplifiers.

PubMed

Hammani, Kamal; Finot, Christophe; Dudley, John M; Millot, Guy

2008-10-13

We report experimental observation and characterization of rogue wave-like extreme value statistics arising from pump-signal noise transfer in a fiber Raman amplifier. Specifically, by exploiting Raman amplification with an incoherent pump, the amplified signal is shown to develop a series of temporal intensity spikes whose peak power follows a power-law probability distribution. The results are interpreted using a numerical model of the Raman gain process using coupled nonlinear Schrödinger equations, and the numerical model predicts results in good agreement with experiment.

Extreme value problems without calculus: a good link with geometry and elementary maths

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ganci, Salvatore

2016-11-01

Some classical examples of problem solving, where an extreme value condition is required, are here considered and/or revisited. The search for non-calculus solutions appears pedagogically useful and intriguing as shown through a rich literature. A teacher, who teaches both maths and physics, (as happens in Italian High schools) can find in these kinds of problems a mind stimulating exercise compared with the standard solution obtained by the differential calculus. A good link between the geometric and analytical explanations is so established.

Random walkers with extreme value memory: modelling the peak-end rule

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harris, Rosemary J.

2015-05-01

Motivated by the psychological literature on the ‘peak-end rule’ for remembered experience, we perform an analysis within a random walk framework of a discrete choice model where agents’ future choices depend on the peak memory of their past experiences. In particular, we use this approach to investigate whether increased noise/disruption always leads to more switching between decisions. Here extreme value theory illuminates different classes of dynamics indicating that the long-time behaviour is dependent on the scale used for reflection; this could have implications, for example, in questionnaire design.

Soil microclimate monitoring in forested and meadow sites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Freyerova, Katerina; Safanda, Jan

2016-04-01

It is well known fact that forest microclimate differs from open area microclimate (Geiger 1965). Less attention is paid to soil temperatures and their long-term monitoring. To evaluate and compare these two environments from the soil microclimate point of view, Institute of Geophysics in Prague monitors soil and air temperatures in Bedřichov in the Jizerské Hory Mountains (Czech Republic). The soil temperatures are measured in three depths (20, 50 and 100 cm) in forest (700 m a. s. l.) and meadow (750 m a. s. l.). Air temperatures are measured at 2m height both in forest and meadow. Nowadays, we have more than three years long time series. The most of studies and experiments described in literature are short-term ones (in order of days or weeks). However, from short-term experiments the seasonal behaviour and trends can be hardly identified and conclusions on soil temperature reaction to climatic extremes such as heat waves, drought or freeze cannot be done with confidence. These drawbacks of the short-term experiments are discussed in literature (eg. Morecroft et al. 1998; Renaud et al. 2011). At the same, with progression of the global warming, the expected increasing frequency of climatic extremes will affect the future form of forest vegetation (Von Arx et al. 2012). The soil and air temperature series, both from the forest and meadow sites, are evaluated and interpreted with respect to long term temperature characteristics and seasonal trends. The emphasis is given on the soil temperature responses to extreme climatic situations. We examine variability between the localities and depths and spatial and temporal changes in this variability. This long-term monitoring allows us to better understand and examine the behaviour of the soil temperature in extreme weather situations. Therefore, we hope to contribute to better prediction of future reactions of this specific environments to the climate change. Literature Geiger, R., 1965. The climate near the ground, Harvard University Press. Available at: https://books.google.cz/books?id=fTpRAAAAMAAJ. Morecroft, M.D., Taylor, M.E. & Oliver, H.R., 1998. Air and soil microclimates of deciduous woodland compared to an open site. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 90(1-2), pp.141-156. Renaud, V. et al., 2011. Comparison between open-site and below-canopy climatic conditions in Switzerland for different types of forests over 10 years (1998-2007). Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 105(1-2), pp.119-127. Available at: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00704-010-0361-0. Von Arx, G., Dobbertin, M. & Rebetez, M., 2012. Spatio-temporal effects of forest canopy on understory microclimate in a long-term experiment in Switzerland. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 166-167, pp.144-155. Available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2012.07.018.

Extreme climatic events change the dynamics and invasibility of semi-arid annual plant communities.

PubMed

Jiménez, Milagros A; Jaksic, Fabian M; Armesto, Juan J; Gaxiola, Aurora; Meserve, Peter L; Kelt, Douglas A; Gutiérrez, Julio R

2011-12-01

Extreme climatic events represent disturbances that change the availability of resources. We studied their effects on annual plant assemblages in a semi-arid ecosystem in north-central Chile. We analysed 130 years of precipitation data using generalised extreme-value distribution to determine extreme events, and multivariate techniques to analyse 20 years of plant cover data of 34 native and 11 exotic species. Extreme drought resets the dynamics of the system and renders it susceptible to invasion. On the other hand, by favouring native annuals, moderately wet events change species composition and allow the community to be resilient to extreme drought. The probability of extreme drought has doubled over the last 50 years. Therefore, investigations on the interaction of climate change and biological invasions are relevant to determine the potential for future effects on the dynamics of semi-arid annual plant communities. 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS.

An operational-oriented approach to the assessment of low probability seismic ground motions for critical infrastructures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garcia-Fernandez, Mariano; Assatourians, Karen; Jimenez, Maria-Jose

2018-01-01

Extreme natural hazard events have the potential to cause significant disruption to critical infrastructure (CI) networks. Among them, earthquakes represent a major threat as sudden-onset events with limited, if any, capability of forecast, and high damage potential. In recent years, the increased exposure of interdependent systems has heightened concern, motivating the need for a framework for the management of these increased hazards. The seismic performance level and resilience of existing non-nuclear CIs can be analyzed by identifying the ground motion input values leading to failure of selected key elements. Main interest focuses on the ground motions exceeding the original design values, which should correspond to low probability occurrence. A seismic hazard methodology has been specifically developed to consider low-probability ground motions affecting elongated CI networks. The approach is based on Monte Carlo simulation, which allows for building long-duration synthetic earthquake catalogs to derive low-probability amplitudes. This approach does not affect the mean hazard values and allows obtaining a representation of maximum amplitudes that follow a general extreme-value distribution. This facilitates the analysis of the occurrence of extremes, i.e., very low probability of exceedance from unlikely combinations, for the development of, e.g., stress tests, among other applications. Following this methodology, extreme ground-motion scenarios have been developed for selected combinations of modeling inputs including seismic activity models (source model and magnitude-recurrence relationship), ground motion prediction equations (GMPE), hazard levels, and fractiles of extreme ground motion. The different results provide an overview of the effects of different hazard modeling inputs on the generated extreme motion hazard scenarios. This approach to seismic hazard is at the core of the risk analysis procedure developed and applied to European CI transport networks within the framework of the European-funded INFRARISK project. Such an operational seismic hazard framework can be used to provide insight in a timely manner to make informed risk management or regulating further decisions on the required level of detail or on the adoption of measures, the cost of which can be balanced against the benefits of the measures in question.

A Conservative Inverse Normal Test Procedure for Combining P-Values in Integrative Research.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Saner, Hilary

1994-01-01

The use of p-values in combining results of studies often involves studies that are potentially aberrant. This paper proposes a combined test that permits trimming some of the extreme p-values. The trimmed statistic is based on an inverse cumulative normal transformation of the ordered p-values. (SLD)

Slice sampling technique in Bayesian extreme of gold price modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rostami, Mohammad; Adam, Mohd Bakri; Ibrahim, Noor Akma; Yahya, Mohamed Hisham

2013-09-01

In this paper, a simulation study of Bayesian extreme values by using Markov Chain Monte Carlo via slice sampling algorithm is implemented. We compared the accuracy of slice sampling with other methods for a Gumbel model. This study revealed that slice sampling algorithm offers more accurate and closer estimates with less RMSE than other methods . Finally we successfully employed this procedure to estimate the parameters of Malaysia extreme gold price from 2000 to 2011.

Nitrogen cycling in an extreme hyperarid environment inferred from δ(15)N analyses of plants, soils and herbivore diet.

PubMed

Díaz, Francisca P; Frugone, Matías; Gutiérrez, Rodrigo A; Latorre, Claudio

2016-03-09

Climate controls on the nitrogen cycle are suggested by the negative correlation between precipitation and δ(15)N values across different ecosystems. For arid ecosystems this is unclear, as water limitation among other factors can confound this relationship. We measured herbivore feces, foliar and soil δ(15)N and δ(13)C values and chemically characterized soils (pH and elemental composition) along an elevational/climatic gradient in the Atacama Desert, northern Chile. Although very positive δ(15)N values span the entire gradient, soil δ(15)N values show a positive correlation with aridity as expected. In contrast, foliar δ(15)N values and herbivore feces show a hump-shaped relationship with elevation, suggesting that plants are using a different N source, possibly of biotic origin. Thus at the extreme limits of plant life, biotic interactions may be just as important as abiotic processes, such as climate in explaining ecosystem δ(15)N values.

Nitrogen cycling in an extreme hyperarid environment inferred from δ15N analyses of plants, soils and herbivore diet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Díaz, Francisca P.; Frugone, Matías; Gutiérrez, Rodrigo A.; Latorre, Claudio

2016-03-01

Climate controls on the nitrogen cycle are suggested by the negative correlation between precipitation and δ15N values across different ecosystems. For arid ecosystems this is unclear, as water limitation among other factors can confound this relationship. We measured herbivore feces, foliar and soil δ15N and δ13C values and chemically characterized soils (pH and elemental composition) along an elevational/climatic gradient in the Atacama Desert, northern Chile. Although very positive δ15N values span the entire gradient, soil δ15N values show a positive correlation with aridity as expected. In contrast, foliar δ15N values and herbivore feces show a hump-shaped relationship with elevation, suggesting that plants are using a different N source, possibly of biotic origin. Thus at the extreme limits of plant life, biotic interactions may be just as important as abiotic processes, such as climate in explaining ecosystem δ15N values.

Nitrogen cycling in an extreme hyperarid environment inferred from δ15N analyses of plants, soils and herbivore diet

PubMed Central

Díaz, Francisca P.; Frugone, Matías; Gutiérrez, Rodrigo A.; Latorre, Claudio

2016-01-01

Climate controls on the nitrogen cycle are suggested by the negative correlation between precipitation and δ15N values across different ecosystems. For arid ecosystems this is unclear, as water limitation among other factors can confound this relationship. We measured herbivore feces, foliar and soil δ15N and δ13C values and chemically characterized soils (pH and elemental composition) along an elevational/climatic gradient in the Atacama Desert, northern Chile. Although very positive δ15N values span the entire gradient, soil δ15N values show a positive correlation with aridity as expected. In contrast, foliar δ15N values and herbivore feces show a hump-shaped relationship with elevation, suggesting that plants are using a different N source, possibly of biotic origin. Thus at the extreme limits of plant life, biotic interactions may be just as important as abiotic processes, such as climate in explaining ecosystem δ15N values. PMID:26956399

How Historical Information Can Improve Extreme Value Analysis of Coastal Water Levels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Le Cozannet, G.; Bulteau, T.; Idier, D.; Lambert, J.; Garcin, M.

2016-12-01

The knowledge of extreme coastal water levels is useful for coastal flooding studies or the design of coastal defences. While deriving such extremes with standard analyses using tide gauge measurements, one often needs to deal with limited effective duration of observation which can result in large statistical uncertainties. This is even truer when one faces outliers, those particularly extreme values distant from the others. In a recent work (Bulteau et al., 2015), we investigated how historical information of past events reported in archives can reduce statistical uncertainties and relativize such outlying observations. We adapted a Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo method, initially developed in the hydrology field (Reis and Stedinger, 2005), to the specific case of coastal water levels. We applied this method to the site of La Rochelle (France), where the storm Xynthia in 2010 generated a water level considered so far as an outlier. Based on 30 years of tide gauge measurements and 8 historical events since 1890, the results showed a significant decrease in statistical uncertainties on return levels when historical information is used. Also, Xynthia's water level no longer appeared as an outlier and we could have reasonably predicted the annual exceedance probability of that level beforehand (predictive probability for 2010 based on data until the end of 2009 of the same order of magnitude as the standard estimative probability using data until the end of 2010). Such results illustrate the usefulness of historical information in extreme value analyses of coastal water levels, as well as the relevance of the proposed method to integrate heterogeneous data in such analyses.

Lower Extremity Stiffness Changes after Concussion in Collegiate Football Players.

PubMed

Dubose, Dominique F; Herman, Daniel C; Jones, Deborah L; Tillman, Susan M; Clugston, James R; Pass, Anthony; Hernandez, Jorge A; Vasilopoulos, Terrie; Horodyski, Marybeth; Chmielewski, Terese L

2017-01-01

Recent research indicates that a concussion increases the risk of musculoskeletal injury. Neuromuscular changes after concussion might contribute to the increased risk of injury. Many studies have examined gait postconcussion, but few studies have examined more demanding tasks. This study compared changes in stiffness across the lower extremity, a measure of neuromuscular function, during a jump-landing task in athletes with a concussion (CONC) to uninjured athletes (UNINJ). Division I football players (13 CONC and 26 UNINJ) were tested pre- and postseason. A motion capture system recorded subjects jumping on one limb from a 25.4-cm step onto a force plate. Hip, knee, and ankle joint stiffness were calculated from initial contact to peak joint flexion using the regression line slopes of the joint moment versus the joint angle plots. Leg stiffness was (peak vertical ground reaction force [PVGRF]/lower extremity vertical displacement) from initial contact to peak vertical ground reaction force. All stiffness values were normalized to body weight. Values from both limbs were averaged. General linear models compared group (CONC, UNINJ) differences in the changes of pre- and postseason stiffness values. Average time from concussion to postseason testing was 49.9 d. The CONC group showed an increase in hip stiffness (P = 0.03), a decrease in knee (P = 0.03) and leg stiffness (P = 0.03), but no change in ankle stiffness (P = 0.65) from pre- to postseason. Lower extremity stiffness is altered after concussion, which could contribute to an increased risk of lower extremity injury. These data provide further evidence of altered neuromuscular function after concussion.

Lower Extremity Stiffness Changes following Concussion in Collegiate Football Players

PubMed Central

DuBose, Dominique F.; Herman, Daniel C.; Jones, Debi L.; Tillman, Susan M.; Clugston, James R.; Pass, Anthony; Hernandez, Jorge A.; Vasilopoulos, Terrie; Horodyski, MaryBeth; Chmielewski, Terese L.

2016-01-01

Purpose Recent research indicates that a concussion increases risk of musculoskeletal injury. Neuromuscular changes following concussion might contribute to the increased risk of injury. Many studies have examined gait post-concussion, but few studies have examined more demanding tasks. This study compared changes in stiffness across the lower extremity, a measure of neuromuscular function, during a jump-landing task in athletes with a concussion (CONC) to uninjured athletes (UNINJ). Methods Division I football players (13 CONC, 26 UNINJ) were tested pre- and post-season. A motion-capture system recorded subjects jumping on one limb from a 25.4 cm step onto a force plate. Hip, knee, and ankle joint stiffness were calculated from initial contact to peak joint flexion using the regression line slopes of the joint moment versus joint angle plots. Leg stiffness was (peak vertical ground reaction force (PVGRF)/lower extremity vertical displacement) from initial contact to PVGRF. All stiffness values were normalized to bodyweight. Values from both limbs were averaged. General linear models compared group (CONC, UNINJ) differences in the changes of pre- and post-season stiffness values. Results Average time from concussion to post-season testing was 49.9 days. The CONC group showed an increase in hip stiffness (p=0.03), a decrease in knee (p=0.03) and leg stiffness (p=0.03), but no change in ankle stiffness (p=0.65) from pre- to post-season. Conclusion Lower extremity stiffness is altered following concussion, which could contribute to an increased risk of lower extremity injury. These data provide further evidence of altered neuromuscular function after concussion. PMID:27501359

Scaling of Dielectric Breakdown Thresholds in Earth's and CO2-rich atmospheres: Impact for Predictions of Extraterrestrial Transient Luminous Events and Lightning Discharges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riousset, J. A.

2016-12-01

Earth's atmospheric electricity manifests itself in the form of glow, corona, streamer, and leader discharges observed as Saint Elmo's fire, sprites, lightning and jets discharges, and other Transient Luminous Events (TLEs). All of these are types of dielectric breakdown, but are governed by different physics. In particular, their initiation is associated with the crossing of specific electric field thresholds: relativistic runaway, streamer propagation, conventional breakdown, or thermal runaway thresholds, some better understood than others. For example, the initiation of a lightning discharge is known to occur when the local electric field exceeds a value similar to relativistic runaway field, but the exact threshold, as well as the physical mechanisms at work, remain rather unclear to date. Scaling laws for electric fields (and other quantities) have been established by Pasko et al. [GRL, 25(12), 2123-2126, 1998] and Pasko [NATO Sci. Series, Springer, 253-311, 2006]. In this work, we develop profiles for initiation criteria in air and in other atmospheric environments. We further calculate their associated scaling laws to determine the ability to trigger lightning flashes and TLEs in our solar system. This lets us predict the likelihood of electrical discharges on, e.g., Mars, Venus and Titan, and calculate the expected electric field conditions, under which discharges have been observed on Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus, and Neptune [Leblanc et al., ISSI Spa. Sci. Series, Springer, 2008, Yair, Adv. Space Res., 50(3), 293-310, 2012]. Our results anticipate the arrival of ExoMars 2016's Schiaparelli module, which will provide the first records of electric field at the surface of the planet [Déprez et al., EGU GA, 16, 16613, 2014]. This research is also motived by the increasing probability of manned missions to Mars and the potential electrostatic hazards it may face [Yair, 2012], and by the role of electrical discharges in the creation of active radicals, some of which may be of biological importance [Miller, Science, 117, 528-529, 1953; Biochem. Biophys. Acta, 23, 480-489, 1957].

Space Shuttle Projects

NASA Image and Video Library

1990-11-05

The seventh mission dedicated to the Department of Defense (DOD), the STS-38 mission, launched aboard the Space Shuttle Atlantis on November 15, 1990 at 6:48:15 pm (EST). The STS-38 crew included the following five astronauts: Richard O. Covey, commander; Frank L. Culbertson, pilot; and mission specialists Charles D. (Sam) Gemar, Robert C. Springer, and Carl J. Meade.

Long-Term Storage and Impedance-Based Water Toxicity Testing Capabilities of Fluidic Biochips Seeded with RTgill-W1 Cells

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-03-24

Cell Line Microplate Cytotoxicity Test. In: Blaise, C., Férard, J.T. (Eds.), Small-scale Freshwater Toxicity Investigations, Vol 1. Springer, The...Eckert, M.L., Lee, L.E.J., Gallagher, E.P., 2008. Comparative oxygen radical formation and toxicity of BDE 47 in rainbow trout cell lines. Marine

Long Term Dinoflagellate Bioluminescence, Chlorophyll, And Their Environmental Correlates In Southern California Coastal Waters

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-02-01

river inputs into the ocean can carry high levels of nutrients needed for algal growth (Harrison 1980, Fogg 1982, Mooers et al. 1978, Lalli and Parsons...R.W.(ed.), Springer-Verlag, Berlin, 373 pp. Fogg , G.E. (1982). Nitrogen cycling in sea waters. Phil. Trans. Roy. Soc. Lond. Ser. B, 296: 511-520

Why does heterogeneity matter?

Treesearch

K.B. Pierce

2007-01-01

This is a review of the book "Ecosystem function in heterogeneous landscapes" published in 2005. The authors are G. Lovett, C. Jones, M.G. Turner, and K.C. Weathers. It was published by Springer, New York. The book is a synthesis of the 10th Gary conference held at the Institute of Ecosystem Studies in Millbrook, New York, in 2003.

Autonomous Fault Detection for Performance Bugs in Component Based Robotic Systems

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-12-01

platform performs a modified version of the restaurant task from the RoboCup@Home competition 2015 [20]. Here, an operator first guides the robot around a...Control. Berlin: Springer, 2008. DOI: 10.1007/ 978-3-540-76304-8. [18] H. Zou and T. Hastie, “Regularization and variable selection via the elastic net

Effects of Child Abuse and Neglect on Adult Survivors

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Johnson, Emmanuel Janagan; James, Christine

2016-01-01

Child abuse has profound immediate and long-term effects on a child's development. The long-term impact of abuse of a child can be seen in higher rates of psychiatric disorders, increased rates of substance abuse and relationship difficulties [Springer, K. W., Sheridan, J., Kuo, D., & Carnes, M. (2003). "The long-term health outcomes of…

75 FR 38135 - Notice of Determinations Regarding Eligibility To Apply for Worker Adjustment Assistance

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-07-01

.... Chemicals, Inc.. 73,538 JT Sports, LLC, Neosho, MO February 12, 2009. Leased Workers of Kelly Services and Manpower. 73,538A JT Sports, LLC, Bentonville, AR..... February 12, 2009. Corporate Headquarters. 73,552... Services. 73,993 Springer Norwell, MA......... April 22, 2009. Science+Business Media, LLC. 73,993A Health...

phosphorus retention data and metadata

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

phosphorus retention in wetlands data and metadataThis dataset is associated with the following publication:Lane , C., and B. Autrey. Phosphorus retention of forested and emergent marsh depressional wetlands in differing land uses in Florida, USA. Wetlands Ecology and Management. Springer Science and Business Media B.V;Formerly Kluwer Academic Publishers B.V., GERMANY, 24(1): 45-60, (2016).

A Proposal for Kelly CriterionBased Lossy Network Compression

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-03-01

warehousing and data mining techniques for cyber security. New York (NY): Springer; 2007. p. 83–108. 34. Münz G, Li S, Carle G. Traffic anomaly...p. 188–196. 48. Kim NU, Park MW, Park SH, Jung SM, Eom JH, Chung TM. A study on ef- fective hash-based load balancing scheme for parallel nids. In

Characteristics and Determinants of Teacher-Designed Pay for Performance Plans: Evidence from Texas' Governor's Educator Excellence Grant (GEEG) Program. Research Brief

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

National Center on Performance Incentives, 2008

2008-01-01

In "Characteristics and Determinants of Teacher-Designed Pay for Performance Plans: Evidence from Texas' Governor's Educator Excellence Grant (GEEG) Program"--a paper presented at the February 2008 National Center on Performance Incentives research to policy conference--Lori Taylor, Matthew Springer, and Mark Ehlert describe the teacher…

Operator-Theoretic Modeling and Waveform Design for Radar in the Presence of Doppler

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-05-01

SPONSOR/MONITOR’S ACRONYM(S) ARO 8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION REPORT NUMBER 19a. NAME OF RESPONSIBLE PERSON 19b. TELEPHONE NUMBER Alfred Hero III 734...Section III, is also underway. REFERENCES [1] R. J. Adler and J. E. Taylor, Random Fields and Geometry, Springer, 2006. [2] J. B. Conway, A Course in

Information and Digital Literacies in a Kindergarten Classroom: An I-LEARN Case Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tecce DeCarlo, Mary Jean; Grant, Allen; Lee, Vera J.; Neuman, Delia

2018-01-01

This case study, part of a larger qualitative research project, involved 24 kindergarteners and their teacher in the design, development, and evaluation of a research project built around the I-LEARN model (Neuman, "Learning in information-rich environments: I-LEARN and the construction of knowledge in the 21st Century." Springer, New…

Examination of Mechanisms and Fuel-Molecular Effects on Soot Formation.

DTIC Science & Technology

1986-12-10

Naegeli , D.W., Dryer, F.L., and Glassman, I., Env. Sci. Tech. 8, 43 (1974). 6. Kee, R.J., Miller, J.A., Jefferson, T.H.: "CHEMKIN: A General-Purpose...Springer Verlag, New York, 1984. 16. Benson, S.W.: Thermochemical Kinetics, J. Wiley and Sons, New York (1976). 15 % 17. Colket, M.B., Naegeli , D.W., and

Physics for Teachers: Understanding Physics: David Cassidy, Gerald Holton, & James Rutherford

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hubisz, John L.

2009-11-01

Physics for Teachers: Understanding Physics, by David Cassidy, Gerald Holton, & James Rutherford and published by Springer Verlag, New York, NY 10010 (2002), pp. xxiii + 851 80.00 hardback. ISBN 0-387-98756-8. Student Guide & Instructor Guide are also available. The text and Instructor Guide are available online at http://www.dcassidybooks.com/up.html

Security along the Appalachian Trail

Treesearch

James J. Bacon; Robert E. Manning; Alan R. Graefe; Gerard Kyle; Robert D. Lee; Robert C. Burns; Rita Hennessy; Robert Gray

2002-01-01

The Appalachian National Scenic Trail (AT) is a public footpath that spans more than 2.000 miles of Appalachian Mountain ridgelines. It stretches from Mount Katahdin in Maine to Springer Mountain in Georgia and passes through twelve other states along the way. It is estimated that the AT lies within a day's drive of over half the country's population. Thus,...

Butterflies, Black swans and Dragon kings: How to use the Dynamical Systems Theory to build a "zoology" of mid-latitude circulation atmospheric extremes?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Faranda, D.; Yiou, P.; Alvarez-Castro, M. C. M.

2015-12-01

A combination of dynamical systems and statistical techniques allows for a robust assessment of the dynamical properties of the mid-latitude atmospheric circulation. Extremes at different spatial and time scales are not only associated to exceptionally intense weather structures (e.g. extra-tropical cyclones) but also to rapid changes of circulation regimes (thunderstorms, supercells) or the extreme persistence of weather structure (heat waves, cold spells). We will show how the dynamical systems theory of recurrence combined to the extreme value theory can take into account the spatial and temporal dependence structure of the mid-latitude circulation structures and provide information on the statistics of extreme events.

Comment on Pisarenko et al., "Characterization of the Tail of the Distribution of Earthquake Magnitudes by Combining the GEV and GPD Descriptions of Extreme Value Theory"

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raschke, Mathias

2016-02-01

In this short note, I comment on the research of Pisarenko et al. (Pure Appl. Geophys 171:1599-1624, 2014) regarding the extreme value theory and statistics in the case of earthquake magnitudes. The link between the generalized extreme value distribution (GEVD) as an asymptotic model for the block maxima of a random variable and the generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) as a model for the peaks over threshold (POT) of the same random variable is presented more clearly. Inappropriately, Pisarenko et al. (Pure Appl. Geophys 171:1599-1624, 2014) have neglected to note that the approximations by GEVD and GPD work only asymptotically in most cases. This is particularly the case with truncated exponential distribution (TED), a popular distribution model for earthquake magnitudes. I explain why the classical models and methods of the extreme value theory and statistics do not work well for truncated exponential distributions. Consequently, these classical methods should be used for the estimation of the upper bound magnitude and corresponding parameters. Furthermore, I comment on various issues of statistical inference in Pisarenko et al. and propose alternatives. I argue why GPD and GEVD would work for various types of stochastic earthquake processes in time, and not only for the homogeneous (stationary) Poisson process as assumed by Pisarenko et al. (Pure Appl. Geophys 171:1599-1624, 2014). The crucial point of earthquake magnitudes is the poor convergence of their tail distribution to the GPD, and not the earthquake process over time.

Inter-examiner classification reliability of Mechanical Diagnosis and Therapy for extremity problems - Systematic review.

PubMed

Takasaki, Hiroshi; Okuyama, Kousuke; Rosedale, Richard

2017-02-01

Mechanical Diagnosis and Therapy (MDT) is used in the treatment of extremity problems. Classifying clinical problems is one method of providing effective treatment to a target population. Classification reliability is a key factor to determine the precise clinical problem and to direct an appropriate intervention. To explore inter-examiner reliability of the MDT classification for extremity problems in three reliability designs: 1) vignette reliability using surveys with patient vignettes, 2) concurrent reliability, where multiple assessors decide a classification by observing someone's assessment, 3) successive reliability, where multiple assessors independently assess the same patient at different times. Systematic review with data synthesis in a quantitative format. Agreement of MDT subgroups was examined using the Kappa value, with the operational definition of acceptable reliability set at ≥ 0.6. The level of evidence was determined considering the methodological quality of the studies. Six studies were included and all studies met the criteria for high quality. Kappa values for the vignette reliability design (five studies) were ≥ 0.7. There was data from two cohorts in one study for the concurrent reliability design and the Kappa values ranged from 0.45 to 1.0. Kappa values for the successive reliability design (data from three cohorts in one study) were < 0.6. The current review found strong evidence of acceptable inter-examiner reliability of MDT classification for extremity problems in the vignette reliability design, limited evidence of acceptable reliability in the concurrent reliability design and unacceptable reliability in the successive reliability design. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A lexicon based method to search for extreme opinions

PubMed Central

Gamallo, Pablo

2018-01-01

Studies in sentiment analysis and opinion mining have been focused on many aspects related to opinions, namely polarity classification by making use of positive, negative or neutral values. However, most studies have overlooked the identification of extreme opinions (most negative and most positive opinions) in spite of their vast significance in many applications. We use an unsupervised approach to search for extreme opinions, which is based on the automatic construction of a new lexicon containing the most negative and most positive words. PMID:29799867

Interstellar absorption of the extreme ultraviolet flux from two hot white dwarfs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cash, W.; Bowyer, S.; Lampton, M.

1979-01-01

Photometric upper limits on the 300 A flux from the hot white dwarfs Feige 24 and G191-B2B are presented. The limits, which were obtained with a rocket-borne extreme ultraviolet imaging telescope, are interpreted as lower limits on the density of the intervening interstellar matter. The limits are used to investigate the state of interstellar gas within 100 pc. A local clumpiness factor, which is of value in planning future extreme ultraviolet observations, is derived.

Countering Violent Extremism Policy in the United States: Are CVE Programs in America Effectively Mitigating the Threat of Homegrown Violent Extremism

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-12-01

anger and violence of those groups improperly judged as “inferior,” especially when a society fails to instill a sense of communal values in the overall...more likely when people experience ‘collective strains’ that are: 1. High in Magnitude with civilians affected; 2. Unjust; 3. Inflicted by... American efforts to counter violent extremism, “if properly implemented, can help sway young people from radicalizing, thereby saving lives and enabling

A lexicon based method to search for extreme opinions.

PubMed

Almatarneh, Sattam; Gamallo, Pablo

2018-01-01

Studies in sentiment analysis and opinion mining have been focused on many aspects related to opinions, namely polarity classification by making use of positive, negative or neutral values. However, most studies have overlooked the identification of extreme opinions (most negative and most positive opinions) in spite of their vast significance in many applications. We use an unsupervised approach to search for extreme opinions, which is based on the automatic construction of a new lexicon containing the most negative and most positive words.

The Influence of Altering Push Force Effectiveness on Upper Extremity Demand during Wheelchair Propulsion

PubMed Central

Rankin, Jeffery W.; Kwarciak, Andrew M.; Richter, W. Mark; Neptune, Richard R.

2010-01-01

Manual wheelchair propulsion has been linked to a high incidence of overuse injury and pain in the upper extremity, which may be caused by the high load requirements and low mechanical efficiency of the task. Previous studies have suggested that poor mechanical efficiency may be due to a low effective handrim force (i.e. applied force that is not directed tangential to the handrim). As a result, studies attempting to reduce upper extremity demand have used various measures of force effectiveness (e.g. fraction effective force, FEF) as a guide for modifying propulsion technique, developing rehabilitation programs and configuring wheelchairs. However, the relationship between FEF and upper extremity demand is not well understood. The purpose of this study was to use forward dynamics simulations of wheelchair propulsion to determine the influence of FEF on upper extremity demand by quantifying individual muscle stress, work and handrim force contributions at different values of FEF. Simulations maximizing and minimizing FEF resulted in higher average muscle stresses (23% and 112%) and total muscle work (28% and 71%) compared to a nominal FEF simulation. The maximal FEF simulation also shifted muscle use from muscles crossing the elbow to those at the shoulder (e.g. rotator cuff muscles), placing greater demand on shoulder muscles during propulsion. The optimal FEF value appears to represent a balance between increasing push force effectiveness to increase mechanical efficiency and minimizing upper extremity demand. Thus, care should be taken in using force effectiveness as a metric to reduce upper extremity demand. PMID:20674921

Fabrication of surfaces with extremely high contact angle hysteresis from polyelectrolyte multilayer.

PubMed

Wang, Liming; Wei, Jingjing; Su, Zhaohui

2011-12-20

High contact angle hysteresis on polyelectrolyte multilayers (PEMs) ion-paired with hydrophobic perfluorooctanoate anions is reported. Both the bilayer number of PEMs and the ionic strength of deposition solutions have significant influence on contact angle hysteresis: higher ionic strength and greater bilayer number cause increased contact angle hysteresis values. The hysteresis values of ~100° were observed on smooth PEMs and pinning of the receding contact line on hydrophilic defects is implicated as the cause of hysteresis. Surface roughness can be used to further tune the contact angle hysteresis on the PEMs. A surface with extremely high contact angle hysteresis of 156° was fabricated when a PEM was deposited on a rough substrate coated with submicrometer scale silica spheres. It was demonstrated that this extremely high value of contact angle hysteresis resulted from the penetration of water into the rough asperities on the substrate. The same substrate hydrophobized by chemical vapor deposition of 1H,1H,2H,2H-perfluorooctyltriethoxysilane exhibits high advancing contact angle and low hysteresis. © 2011 American Chemical Society

Extreme value statistics and finite-size scaling at the ecological extinction/laminar-turbulence transition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shih, Hong-Yan; Goldenfeld, Nigel

Experiments on transitional turbulence in pipe flow seem to show that turbulence is a transient metastable state since the measured mean lifetime of turbulence puffs does not diverge asymptotically at a critical Reynolds number. Yet measurements reveal that the lifetime scales with Reynolds number in a super-exponential way reminiscent of extreme value statistics, and simulations and experiments in Couette and channel flow exhibit directed percolation type scaling phenomena near a well-defined transition. This universality class arises from the interplay between small-scale turbulence and a large-scale collective zonal flow, which exhibit predator-prey behavior. Why is asymptotically divergent behavior not observed? Using directed percolation and a stochastic individual level model of predator-prey dynamics related to transitional turbulence, we investigate the relation between extreme value statistics and power law critical behavior, and show that the paradox is resolved by carefully defining what is measured in the experiments. We theoretically derive the super-exponential scaling law, and using finite-size scaling, show how the same data can give both super-exponential behavior and power-law critical scaling.

Preliminary research of a novel center-driven robot for upper extremity rehabilitation.

PubMed

Cao, Wujing; Zhang, Fei; Yu, Hongliu; Hu, Bingshan; Meng, Qiaoling

2018-01-19

Loss of upper limb function often appears after stroke. Robot-assisted systems are becoming increasingly common in upper extremity rehabilitation. Rehabilitation robot provides intensive motor therapy, which can be performed in a repetitive, accurate and controllable manner. This study aims to propose a novel center-driven robot for upper extremity rehabilitation. A new power transmission mechanism is designed to transfer the power to elbow and shoulder joints from three motors located on the base. The forward and inverse kinematics equations of the center-driven robot (CENTROBOT) are deduced separately. The theoretical values of the scope of joint movements are obtained with the Denavit-Hartenberg parameters method. A prototype of the CENTROBOT is developed and tested. The elbow flexion/extension, shoulder flexion/extension and shoulder adduction/abduction can be realized of the center-driven robot. The angles value of joints are in conformity with the theoretical value. The CENTROBOT reduces the overall size of the robot arm, the influence of motor noise, radiation and other adverse factors by setting all motors on the base. It can satisfy the requirements of power and movement transmission of the robot arm.

Impact of increasing heat waves on U.S. ozone episodes in the 2050s: Results from a multimodel analysis using extreme value theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shen, L.; Mickley, L. J.; Gilleland, E.

2016-04-01

We develop a statistical model using extreme value theory to estimate the 2000-2050 changes in ozone episodes across the United States. We model the relationships between daily maximum temperature (Tmax) and maximum daily 8 h average (MDA8) ozone in May-September over 2003-2012 using a Point Process (PP) model. At ~20% of the sites, a marked decrease in the ozone-temperature slope occurs at high temperatures, defined as ozone suppression. The PP model sometimes fails to capture ozone-Tmax relationships, so we refit the ozone-Tmax slope using logistic regression and a generalized Pareto distribution model. We then apply the resulting hybrid-extreme value theory model to projections of Tmax from an ensemble of downscaled climate models. Assuming constant anthropogenic emissions at the present level, we find an average increase of 2.3 d a-1 in ozone episodes (>75 ppbv) across the United States by the 2050s, with a change of +3-9 d a-1 at many sites.

Modeling Future Fire danger over North America in a Changing Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jain, P.; Paimazumder, D.; Done, J.; Flannigan, M.

2016-12-01

Fire danger ratings are used to determine wildfire potential due to weather and climate factors. The Fire Weather Index (FWI), part of the Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System (CFFDRS), incorporates temperature, relative humidity, windspeed and precipitation to give a daily fire danger rating that is used by wildfire management agencies in an operational context. Studies using GCM output have shown that future wildfire danger will increase in a warming climate. However, these studies are somewhat limited by the coarse spatial resolution (typically 100-400km) and temporal resolution (typically 6-hourly to monthly) of the model output. Future wildfire potential over North America based on FWI is calculated using output from the Weather, Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, which is used to downscale future climate scenarios from the bias-corrected Community Climate System Model (CCSM) under RCP8.5 scenarios at a spatial resolution of 36km. We consider five eleven year time slices: 1990-2000, 2020-2030, 2030-2040, 2050-2060 and 2080-2090. The dynamically downscaled simulation improves determination of future extreme weather by improving both spatial and temporal resolution over most GCM models. To characterize extreme fire weather we calculate annual numbers of spread days (days for which FWI > 19) and annual 99th percentile of FWI. Additionally, an extreme value analysis based on the peaks-over-threshold method allows us to calculate the return values for extreme FWI values.

Statistical trend analysis and extreme distribution of significant wave height from 1958 to 1999 - an application to the Italian Seas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martucci, G.; Carniel, S.; Chiggiato, J.; Sclavo, M.; Lionello, P.; Galati, M. B.

2010-06-01

The study is a statistical analysis of sea states timeseries derived using the wave model WAM forced by the ERA-40 dataset in selected areas near the Italian coasts. For the period 1 January 1958 to 31 December 1999 the analysis yields: (i) the existence of a negative trend in the annual- and winter-averaged sea state heights; (ii) the existence of a turning-point in late 80's in the annual-averaged trend of sea state heights at a site in the Northern Adriatic Sea; (iii) the overall absence of a significant trend in the annual-averaged mean durations of sea states over thresholds; (iv) the assessment of the extreme values on a time-scale of thousand years. The analysis uses two methods to obtain samples of extremes from the independent sea states: the r-largest annual maxima and the peak-over-threshold. The two methods show statistical differences in retrieving the return values and more generally in describing the significant wave field. The r-largest annual maxima method provides more reliable predictions of the extreme values especially for small return periods (<100 years). Finally, the study statistically proves the existence of decadal negative trends in the significant wave heights and by this it conveys useful information on the wave climatology of the Italian seas during the second half of the 20th century.

Quasi-normal modes of extremal BTZ black holes in TMG

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Afshar, Hamid R.; Alishahiha, Mohsen; Mosaffa, Amir E.

2010-08-01

We study the spectrum of tensor perturbations on extremal BTZ black holes in topologically massive gravity for arbitrary values of the coefficient of the Chern-Simons term, μ. Imposing proper boundary conditions at the boundary of the space and at the horizon, we find that the spectrum contains quasi-normal modes.

Modeling extreme hurricane damage in the United States using generalized Pareto distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dey, Asim Kumer

Extreme value distributions are used to understand and model natural calamities, man made catastrophes and financial collapses. Extreme value theory has been developed to study the frequency of such events and to construct a predictive model so that one can attempt to forecast the frequency of a disaster and the amount of damage from such a disaster. In this study, hurricane damages in the United States from 1900-2012 have been studied. The aim of the paper is three-fold. First, normalizing hurricane damage and fitting an appropriate model for the normalized damage data. Secondly, predicting the maximum economic damage from a hurricane in future by using the concept of return period. Finally, quantifying the uncertainty in the inference of extreme return levels of hurricane losses by using a simulated hurricane series, generated by bootstrap sampling. Normalized hurricane damage data are found to follow a generalized Pareto distribution. tion. It is demonstrated that standard deviation and coecient of variation increase with the return period which indicates an increase in uncertainty with model extrapolation.

Persistence analysis of extreme CO, NO2 and O3 concentrations in ambient air of Delhi

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chelani, Asha B.

2012-05-01

Persistence analysis of air pollutant concentration and corresponding exceedance time series is carried out to examine for temporal evolution. For this purpose, air pollutant concentrations, namely, CO, NO2 and O3 observed during 2000-2009 at a traffic site in Delhi are analyzed using detrended fluctuation analysis. Two types of extreme values are analyzed; exceeded concentrations to a threshold provided by national pollution controlling agency and time interval between two exceedances. The time series of three pollutants is observed to possess persistence property whereas the extreme value time series of only primary pollutant concentrations is found to be persistent. Two time scaling regions are observed to be significant in extreme time series of CO and NO2, mainly attributed to implementation of CNG in vehicles. The presence of persistence in three pollutant concentration time series is linked to the property of self-organized criticality. The observed persistence in the time interval between two exceeded levels is a matter of concern as persistent high concentrations can trigger health problems.

Sources of nitrate in snowmelt discharge: Evidence from water chemistry and stable isotopes of nitrate

USGS Publications Warehouse

Piatek, K.B.; Mitchell, M.J.; Silva, S.R.; Kendall, C.

2005-01-01

To determine whether NO3- concentration pulses in surface water in early spring snowmelt discharge are due to atmospheric NO 3-, we analyzed stream ??15N-NO 3- and ??18O-NO3- values between February and June of 2001 and 2002 and compared them to those of throughfall, bulk precipitation, snow, and groundwater. Stream total Al, DOC and Si concentrations were used to indicate preferential water flow through the forest floor, mineral soil, and ground water. The study was conducted in a 135-ha subcatchment of the Arbutus Watershed in the Huntington Wildlife Forest in the Adirondack Region of New York State, U.S.A. Stream discharge in 2001 increased from 0.6 before to 32.4 mm day-1 during snowmelt, and element concentrations increased from 33 to 71 ??mol L-1 for NO3-, 3 to 9 ??mol L-1 for total Al, and 330 to 570 ??mol L-1 for DOC. Discharge in 2002 was variable, with a maximum of 30 mm day-1 during snowmelt. The highest NO3-, Al, and DOC concentrations were 52, 10, and 630 ??mol L -1, respectively, and dissolved Si decreased from 148 ??mol L -1 before to 96 ??mol L-1 during snowmelt. Values of ??15N and ??18O of NO3- in stream water were similar in both years. Stream water, atmospherically- derived solutions, and groundwaters had overlapping ??15N- NO3- values. In stream and ground water, ??18O-NO3- values ranged from +5.9 to +12.9??? and were significantly lower than the +58.3 to +78.7??? values in atmospheric solutions. Values of ??18O-NO3- indicating nitrification, increase in Al and DOC, and decrease in dissolved Si concentrations indicating water flow through the soil suggested a dilution of groundwater NO3- by increasing contributions of forest floor and mineral soil NO3- during snowmelt. ?? Springer 2005.

Impacts of climate change on the trends of extreme rainfall indices and values of maximum precipitation at Olimpiyat Station, Istanbul, Turkey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nigussie, Tewodros Assefa; Altunkaynak, Abdusselam

2018-03-01

In this study, extreme rainfall indices of Olimpiyat Station were determined from reference period (1971-2000) and future period (2070-2099) daily rainfall data projected using the HadGEM2-ES and GFDL-ESM2M global circulation models (GCMs) and downscaled by the RegCM4.3.4 regional model under the Representative Concentration Pathway RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The Mann-Kendall (MK) trend statistics was used to detect trends in the indices of each group, and the nonparametric Wilcoxon signed ranks test was employed to identify the presence of differences among the values of the rainfall indices of the three groups. Moreover, the peaks-over-threshold (POT) method was used to undertake frequency analysis and estimate the maximum 24-h rainfall values of various return periods. The results of the M-K-based trend analyses showed that there are insignificant increasing trends in most of the extreme rainfall indices. However, based on the Wilcoxon signed ranks test, the values of the extreme rainfall indices determined for the future period, particularly under RCP8.5, were found to be significantly different from the corresponding values determined for the reference period. The maximum 24-h rainfall amounts of the 50-year return period of the future period under RCP4.5 of the HadGEM2-ES and GFDL-ESM2M GCMs were found to be larger (by 5.85%) than the corresponding value of the reference period by 5.85 and 21.43%, respectively. The results also showed that the maximum 24-h rainfall amount under RCP8.5 of both the HadGEM2-ES and GFDL-ESM2M GCMs was found to be greater (34.33 and 12.18%, respectively, for the 50-year return period) than the reference period values. This may increase the risk of flooding in Ayamama Watershed, and thus, studying the effects of the predicted amount of rainfall under the RCP8.5 scenario on the flooding risk of Ayamama Watershed and devising management strategies are recommended to enhance the design and implementation of adaptation measures.

[Distribution characteristics of dissolved oxygen and its affecting factors in the Pearl River Estuary during the summer of the extremely drought hydrological year 2011].

PubMed

Ye, Feng; Huang, Xiao-ping; Shi, Zhen; Liu, Qing-xi

2013-05-01

More and more attention has focused on assessing impacts of extreme hydrologic events on estuarine ecosystem under the background of climate change. Based on a summer cruise conducted in the Pearl River Estuary in 2011 (extreme drought event), we have investigated the spatial distribution of dissolved oxygen (DO) and its relationships to water column stability, nutrient concentrations, and organic matter; besides, the major reason which caused the oxygen depletion was discussed. Under the influence of the extreme drought event, low bottom water dissolved oxygen was apparent in regions characterized by great depths, with an oxygen minimum value of 1.38 mg x L(-1). Statistical analysis shows significant correlations among deltaDO, deltaT, deltaS and deltaPOC. A comparison was conducted to show the mechanisms of oxygen depletion during the summers of 1999, 2009 and 2011, respectively. The result indicates that prolonged residence time of water due to the extremely low discharge and the subsequently decomposition of organic substance are major factors causing the formation of hypoxia during the summer drought in 2011. Despite the changing nutrient and organic matter regime in the Pearl River Estuary, there was no apparent trend in the minimum values of DO over the past 2 decades.

Variability and Extremes of Precipitation in the Global Climate as Determined by the 25-Year GEWEX/GPCP Data Set

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Adler, R. F.; Gu, G.; Curtis, S.; Huffman, G. J.; Bolvin, D. T.; Nelkin, E. J.

2005-01-01

The Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) 25-year precipitation data set is used to evaluate the variability and extremes on global and regional scales. The variability of precipitation year-to-year is evaluated in relation to the overall lack of a significant global trend and to climate events such as ENSO and volcanic eruptions. The validity of conclusions and limitations of the data set are checked by comparison with independent data sets (e.g., TRMM). The GPCP data set necessarily has a heterogeneous time series of input data sources, so part of the assessment described above is to test the initial results for potential influence by major data boundaries in the record. Regional trends, or inter-decadal changes, are also analyzed to determine validity and correlation with other long-term data sets related to the hydrological cycle (e.g., clouds and ocean surface fluxes). Statistics of extremes (both wet and dry) are analyzed at the monthly time scale for the 25 years. A preliminary result of increasing frequency of extreme monthly values will be a focus to determine validity. Daily values for an eight-year are also examined for variation in extremes and compared to the longer monthly-based study.

Use of local Moran's I and GIS to identify pollution hotspots of Pb in urban soils of Galway, Ireland.

PubMed

Zhang, Chaosheng; Luo, Lin; Xu, Weilin; Ledwith, Valerie

2008-07-15

Pollution hotspots in urban soils need to be identified for better environmental management. It is important to know if there are hotspots and if the hotspots are statistically significant. In this study identification of pollution hotspots was investigated using Pb concentrations in urban soils of Galway City in Ireland as an example, and the influencing factors on results of hotspot identification were investigated. The index of local Moran's I is a useful tool for identifying pollution hotspots of Pb pollution in urban soils, and for classifying them into spatial clusters and spatial outliers. The results were affected by the definition of weight function, data transformation and existence of extreme values. Compared with the results for the positively skewed raw data, the transformed data and data with extreme values excluded revealed a larger area for the high value spatial clusters in the city centre. While it is hard to decide the best way of using this index, it is suggested that all these influencing factors should be considered until reasonable and reliable results are obtained. GIS mapping can be applied to help evaluate the results via visualization of the spatial patterns. Meanwhile, selected pollution hotspots (extreme values) in this study were confirmed by re-analyses and re-sampling.

Extreme climatic events drive mammal irruptions: regression analysis of 100-year trends in desert rainfall and temperature

PubMed Central

Greenville, Aaron C; Wardle, Glenda M; Dickman, Chris R

2012-01-01

Extreme climatic events, such as flooding rains, extended decadal droughts and heat waves have been identified increasingly as important regulators of natural populations. Climate models predict that global warming will drive changes in rainfall and increase the frequency and severity of extreme events. Consequently, to anticipate how organisms will respond we need to document how changes in extremes of temperature and rainfall compare to trends in the mean values of these variables and over what spatial scales the patterns are consistent. Using the longest historical weather records available for central Australia – 100 years – and quantile regression methods, we investigate if extreme climate events have changed at similar rates to median events, if annual rainfall has increased in variability, and if the frequency of large rainfall events has increased over this period. Specifically, we compared local (individual weather stations) and regional (Simpson Desert) spatial scales, and quantified trends in median (50th quantile) and extreme weather values (5th, 10th, 90th, and 95th quantiles). We found that median and extreme annual minimum and maximum temperatures have increased at both spatial scales over the past century. Rainfall changes have been inconsistent across the Simpson Desert; individual weather stations showed increases in annual rainfall, increased frequency of large rainfall events or more prolonged droughts, depending on the location. In contrast to our prediction, we found no evidence that intra-annual rainfall had become more variable over time. Using long-term live-trapping records (22 years) of desert small mammals as a case study, we demonstrate that irruptive events are driven by extreme rainfalls (>95th quantile) and that increases in the magnitude and frequency of extreme rainfall events are likely to drive changes in the populations of these species through direct and indirect changes in predation pressure and wildfires. PMID:23170202

Interpreting the Climatic Effects on Xylem Functional Traits in Two Mediterranean Oak Species: The Role of Extreme Climatic Events.

PubMed

Rita, Angelo; Borghetti, Marco; Todaro, Luigi; Saracino, Antonio

2016-01-01

In the Mediterranean region, the widely predicted rise in temperature, change in the precipitation pattern, and increase in the frequency of extreme climatic events are expected to alter the shape of ecological communities and to affect plant physiological processes that regulate ecosystem functioning. Although change in the mean values are important, there is increasing evidence that plant distribution, survival, and productivity respond to extremes rather than to the average climatic condition. The present study aims to assess the effects of both mean and extreme climatic conditions on radial growth and functional anatomical traits using long-term tree-ring time series of two co-existing Quercus spp. from a drought-prone site in Southern Italy. In particular, this is the first attempt to apply the Generalized Additive Model for Location, Scale, and Shape (GAMLSS) technique and Bayesian modeling procedures to xylem traits data set, with the aim of (i) detecting non-linear long-term responses to climate and (ii) exploring relationships between climate extreme and xylem traits variability in terms of probability of occurrence. This study demonstrates the usefulness of long-term xylem trait chronologies as records of environmental conditions at annual resolution. Statistical analyses revealed that most of the variability in tree-ring width and specific hydraulic conductivity might be explained by cambial age. Additionally, results highlighted appreciable relationships between xylem traits and climate variability more than tree-ring width, supporting also the evidence that the plant hydraulic traits are closely linked to local climate extremes rather than average climatic conditions. We reported that the probability of extreme departure in specific hydraulic conductivity (Ks) rises at extreme values of Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). Therefore, changing frequency or intensity of extreme events might overcome the adaptive limits of vascular transport, resulting in substantial reduction of hydraulic functionality and, hence increased incidence of xylem dysfunctions.

Interpreting the Climatic Effects on Xylem Functional Traits in Two Mediterranean Oak Species: The Role of Extreme Climatic Events

PubMed Central

Rita, Angelo; Borghetti, Marco; Todaro, Luigi; Saracino, Antonio

2016-01-01

In the Mediterranean region, the widely predicted rise in temperature, change in the precipitation pattern, and increase in the frequency of extreme climatic events are expected to alter the shape of ecological communities and to affect plant physiological processes that regulate ecosystem functioning. Although change in the mean values are important, there is increasing evidence that plant distribution, survival, and productivity respond to extremes rather than to the average climatic condition. The present study aims to assess the effects of both mean and extreme climatic conditions on radial growth and functional anatomical traits using long-term tree-ring time series of two co-existing Quercus spp. from a drought-prone site in Southern Italy. In particular, this is the first attempt to apply the Generalized Additive Model for Location, Scale, and Shape (GAMLSS) technique and Bayesian modeling procedures to xylem traits data set, with the aim of (i) detecting non-linear long-term responses to climate and (ii) exploring relationships between climate extreme and xylem traits variability in terms of probability of occurrence. This study demonstrates the usefulness of long-term xylem trait chronologies as records of environmental conditions at annual resolution. Statistical analyses revealed that most of the variability in tree-ring width and specific hydraulic conductivity might be explained by cambial age. Additionally, results highlighted appreciable relationships between xylem traits and climate variability more than tree-ring width, supporting also the evidence that the plant hydraulic traits are closely linked to local climate extremes rather than average climatic conditions. We reported that the probability of extreme departure in specific hydraulic conductivity (Ks) rises at extreme values of Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). Therefore, changing frequency or intensity of extreme events might overcome the adaptive limits of vascular transport, resulting in substantial reduction of hydraulic functionality and, hence increased incidence of xylem dysfunctions. PMID:27532008

Minimum-Cost Aircraft Descent Trajectories with a Constrained Altitude Profile

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wu, Minghong G.; Sadovsky, Alexander V.

2015-01-01

An analytical formula for solving the speed profile that accrues minimum cost during an aircraft descent with a constrained altitude profile is derived. The optimal speed profile first reaches a certain speed, called the minimum-cost speed, as quickly as possible using an appropriate extreme value of thrust. The speed profile then stays on the minimum-cost speed as long as possible, before switching to an extreme value of thrust for the rest of the descent. The formula is applied to an actual arrival route and its sensitivity to winds and airlines' business objectives is analyzed.

Median and ulnar neuropathies in university guitarists.

PubMed

Kennedy, Rachel H; Hutcherson, Kimberly J; Kain, Jennifer B; Phillips, Alicia L; Halle, John S; Greathouse, David G

2006-02-01

Descriptive study. To determine the presence of median and ulnar neuropathies in both upper extremities of university guitarists. Peripheral nerve entrapment syndromes of the upper extremities are well documented in musicians. Guitarists and plucked-string musicians are at risk for entrapment neuropathies in the upper extremities and are prone to mild neurologic deficits. Twenty-four volunteer male and female guitarists (age range, 18-26 years) were recruited from the Belmont University School of Music and the Vanderbilt University Blair School of Music. Individuals were excluded if they were pregnant or had a history of recent upper extremity or neck injury. Subjects completed a history form, were interviewed, and underwent a physical examination. Nerve conduction status of the median and ulnar nerves of both upper extremities was obtained by performing motor, sensory, and F-wave (central) nerve conduction studies. Descriptive statistics of the nerve conduction study variables were computed using Microsoft Excel. Six subjects had positive findings on provocative testing of the median and ulnar nerves. Otherwise, these guitarists had normal upper extremity neural and musculoskeletal function based on the history and physical examinations. When comparing the subjects' nerve conduction study values with a chart of normal nerve conduction studies values, 2 subjects had prolonged distal motor latencies (DMLs) of the left median nerve of 4.3 and 4.7 milliseconds (normal, < 4.2 milliseconds). Prolonged DMLs are compatible with median neuropathy at or distal to the wrist. Otherwise, all electrophysiological variables were within normal limits for motor, sensory, and F-wave (central) values. However, comparison studies of median and ulnar motor latencies in the same hand demonstrated prolonged differences of greater than 1.0 milliseconds that affected the median nerve in 2 additional subjects, and identified contralateral limb involvement in a subject with a prolonged distal latency. The other 20 subjects demonstrated normal comparison studies of the median and ulnar nerves in both upper extremities. In this descriptive study of a population of 24 university guitarists, 4 musicians (17%) were found to have electrophysiologic evidence of median neuropathy at or distal to the wrist or carpal tunnel syndrome. Ulnar nerve electrophysiological function was within normal limits for all subjects examined.

Combining Radar and Daily Precipitation Data to Estimate Meaningful Sub-daily Precipitation Extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pegram, G. G. S.; Bardossy, A.

2016-12-01

Short duration extreme rainfalls are important for design. The purpose of this presentation is not to improve the day by day estimation of precipitation, but to obtain reasonable statistics for the subdaily extremes at gauge locations. We are interested specifically in daily and sub-daily extreme values of precipitation at gauge locations. We do not employ the common procedure of using time series of control station to determine the missing data values in a target. We are interested in individual rare events, not sequences. The idea is to use radar to disaggregate daily totals to sub-daily amounts. In South Arica, an S-band radar operated relatively continuously at Bethlehem from 1998 to 2003, whose scan at 1.5 km above ground [CAPPI] overlapped a dense (10 km spacing) set of 45 pluviometers recording in the same 6-year period. Using this valuable set of data, we are only interested in rare extremes, therefore small to medium values of rainfall depth were neglected, leaving 12 days of ranked daily maxima in each set per year, whose sum typically comprised about 50% of each annual rainfall total. The method presented here uses radar for disaggregating daily gauge totals in subdaily intervals down to 15 minutes in order to extract the maxima of sub-hourly through to daily rainfall at each of 37 selected radar pixels [1 km square in plan] which contained one of the 45 pluviometers not masked out by the radar foot-print. The pluviometer data were aggregated to daily totals, to act as if they were daily read gauges; their only other task was to help in the cross-validation exercise. The extrema were obtained as quantiles by ordering the 12 daily maxima of each interval per year. The unusual and novel goal was not to obtain the reproduction of the precipitation matching in space and time, but to obtain frequency distributions of the gauge and radar extremes, by matching their ranks, which we found to be stable and meaningful in cross-validation tests. We provide and compare a range of different methodologies to enable reasonable estimation of subdaily extremes using radar and daily precipitation observations.

High northern latitude temperature extremes, 1400-1999

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tingley, M. P.; Huybers, P.; Hughen, K. A.

2009-12-01

There is often an interest in determining which interval features the most extreme value of a reconstructed climate field, such as the warmest year or decade in a temperature reconstruction. Previous approaches to this type of question have not fully accounted for the spatial and temporal covariance in the climate field when assessing the significance of extreme values. Here we present results from applying BARSAT, a new, Bayesian approach to reconstructing climate fields, to a 600 year multiproxy temperature data set that covers land areas between 45N and 85N. The end result of the analysis is an ensemble of spatially and temporally complete realizations of the temperature field, each of which is consistent with the observations and the estimated values of the parameters that define the assumed spatial and temporal covariance functions. In terms of the spatial average temperature, 1990-1999 was the warmest decade in the 1400-1999 interval in each of 2000 ensemble members, while 1995 was the warmest year in 98% of the ensemble members. A similar analysis at each node of a regular 5 degree grid gives insight into the spatial distribution of warm temperatures, and reveals that 1995 was anomalously warm in Eurasia, whereas 1998 featured extreme warmth in North America. In 70% of the ensemble members, 1601 featured the coldest spatial average, indicating that the eruption of Huaynaputina in Peru in 1600 (with a volcanic explosivity index of 6) had a major cooling impact on the high northern latitudes. Repeating this analysis at each node reveals the varying impacts of major volcanic eruptions on the distribution of extreme cooling. Finally, we use the ensemble to investigate extremes in the time evolution of centennial temperature trends, and find that in more than half the ensemble members, the greatest rate of change in the spatial mean time series was a cooling centered at 1600. The largest rate of centennial scale warming, however, occurred in the 20th Century in more than 98% of the ensemble members.

Uncertainty in determining extreme precipitation thresholds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Bingjun; Chen, Junfan; Chen, Xiaohong; Lian, Yanqing; Wu, Lili

2013-10-01

Extreme precipitation events are rare and occur mostly on a relatively small and local scale, which makes it difficult to set the thresholds for extreme precipitations in a large basin. Based on the long term daily precipitation data from 62 observation stations in the Pearl River Basin, this study has assessed the applicability of the non-parametric, parametric, and the detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) methods in determining extreme precipitation threshold (EPT) and the certainty to EPTs from each method. Analyses from this study show the non-parametric absolute critical value method is easy to use, but unable to reflect the difference of spatial rainfall distribution. The non-parametric percentile method can account for the spatial distribution feature of precipitation, but the problem with this method is that the threshold value is sensitive to the size of rainfall data series and is subjected to the selection of a percentile thus make it difficult to determine reasonable threshold values for a large basin. The parametric method can provide the most apt description of extreme precipitations by fitting extreme precipitation distributions with probability distribution functions; however, selections of probability distribution functions, the goodness-of-fit tests, and the size of the rainfall data series can greatly affect the fitting accuracy. In contrast to the non-parametric and the parametric methods which are unable to provide information for EPTs with certainty, the DFA method although involving complicated computational processes has proven to be the most appropriate method that is able to provide a unique set of EPTs for a large basin with uneven spatio-temporal precipitation distribution. The consistency between the spatial distribution of DFA-based thresholds with the annual average precipitation, the coefficient of variation (CV), and the coefficient of skewness (CS) for the daily precipitation further proves that EPTs determined by the DFA method are more reasonable and applicable for the Pearl River Basin.

Comparison of different statistical methods for estimation of extreme sea levels with wave set-up contribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kergadallan, Xavier; Bernardara, Pietro; Benoit, Michel; Andreewsky, Marc; Weiss, Jérôme

2013-04-01

Estimating the probability of occurrence of extreme sea levels is a central issue for the protection of the coast. Return periods of sea level with wave set-up contribution are estimated here in one site : Cherbourg in France in the English Channel. The methodology follows two steps : the first one is computation of joint probability of simultaneous wave height and still sea level, the second one is interpretation of that joint probabilities to assess a sea level for a given return period. Two different approaches were evaluated to compute joint probability of simultaneous wave height and still sea level : the first one is multivariate extreme values distributions of logistic type in which all components of the variables become large simultaneously, the second one is conditional approach for multivariate extreme values in which only one component of the variables have to be large. Two different methods were applied to estimate sea level with wave set-up contribution for a given return period : Monte-Carlo simulation in which estimation is more accurate but needs higher calculation time and classical ocean engineering design contours of type inverse-FORM in which the method is simpler and allows more complex estimation of wave setup part (wave propagation to the coast for example). We compare results from the two different approaches with the two different methods. To be able to use both Monte-Carlo simulation and design contours methods, wave setup is estimated with an simple empirical formula. We show advantages of the conditional approach compared to the multivariate extreme values approach when extreme sea-level occurs when either surge or wave height is large. We discuss the validity of the ocean engineering design contours method which is an alternative when computation of sea levels is too complex to use Monte-Carlo simulation method.

Evidence and implications of recent climate change in Northern Alaska and other Arctic regions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hinzman, L.D.; Bettez, N.D.; Bolton, W.R.; Chapin, F.S.; Dyurgerov, M.B.; Fastie, C.L.; Griffith, B.; Hollister, R.D.; Hope, Allen; Huntington, H.P.; Jensen, A.M.; Jia, G.J.; Jorgenson, T.; Kane, D.L.; Klein, D.R.; Kofinas, G.; Lynch, A.H.; Lloyd, A.H.; McGuire, A.D.; Nelson, Frederick E.; Oechel, W.C.; Osterkamp, T.E.; Racine, C.H.; Romanovsky, V.E.; Stone, R.S.; Stow, D.A.; Sturm, M.; Tweedie, C.E.; Vourlitis, G.L.; Walker, M.D.; Walker, D.A.; Webber, P.J.; Welker, J.M.; Winker, K.S.; Yoshikawa, K.

2005-01-01

The Arctic climate is changing. Permafrost is warming, hydrological processes are changing and biological and social systems are also evolving in response to these changing conditions. Knowing how the structure and function of arctic terrestrial ecosystems are responding to recent and persistent climate change is paramount to understanding the future state of the Earth system and how humans will need to adapt. Our holistic review presents a broad array of evidence that illustrates convincingly; the Arctic is undergoing a system-wide response to an altered climatic state. New extreme and seasonal surface climatic conditions are being experienced, a range of biophysical states and processes influenced by the threshold and phase change of freezing point are being altered, hydrological and biogeochemical cycles are shifting, and more regularly human sub-systems are being affected. Importantly, the patterns, magnitude and mechanisms of change have sometimes been unpredictable or difficult to isolate due to compounding factors. In almost every discipline represented, we show how the biocomplexity of the Arctic system has highlighted and challenged a paucity of integrated scientific knowledge, the lack of sustained observational and experimental time series, and the technical and logistic constraints of researching the Arctic environment. This study supports ongoing efforts to strengthen the interdisciplinarity of arctic system science and improve the coupling of large scale experimental manipulation with sustained time series observations by incorporating and integrating novel technologies, remote sensing and modeling. ?? Springer 2005.

Early vegetation development on an exposed reservoir: Implications for dam removal

USGS Publications Warehouse

Auble, G.T.; Shafroth, P.B.; Scott, M.L.; Roelle, J.E.

2007-01-01

The 4-year drawdown of Horsetooth Reservoir, Colorado, for dam maintenance, provides a case study analog of vegetation response on sediment that might be exposed from removal of a tall dam. Early vegetation recovery on the exposed reservoir bottom was a combination of (1) vegetation colonization on bare, moist substrates typical of riparian zones and reservoir sediment of shallow dams and (2) a shift in moisture status from mesic to the xeric conditions associated with the pre-impoundment upland position of most of the drawdown zone. Plant communities changed rapidly during the first four years of exposure, but were still substantially different from the background upland plant community. Predictions from the recruitment box model about the locations of Populus deltoides subsp. monilifera (plains cottonwood) seedlings relative to the water surface were qualitatively confirmed with respect to optimum locations. However, the extreme vertical range of water surface elevations produced cottonwood seed regeneration well outside the predicted limits of drawdown rate and height above late summer stage. The establishment and survival of cottonwood at high elevations and the differences between the upland plant community and the community that had developed after four years of exposure suggest that vegetation recovery following tall dam removal will follow a trajectory very different from a simple reversal of the response to dam construction, involving not only long time scales of establishment and growth of upland vegetation, but also possibly decades of persistence of legacy vegetation established during the reservoir to upland transition. ?? 2007 Springer Science+Business Media, LLC.

Measuring daily Value-at-Risk of SSEC index: A new approach based on multifractal analysis and extreme value theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wei, Yu; Chen, Wang; Lin, Yu

2013-05-01

Recent studies in the econophysics literature reveal that price variability has fractal and multifractal characteristics not only in developed financial markets, but also in emerging markets. Taking high-frequency intraday quotes of the Shanghai Stock Exchange Component (SSEC) Index as example, this paper proposes a new method to measure daily Value-at-Risk (VaR) by combining the newly introduced multifractal volatility (MFV) model and the extreme value theory (EVT) method. Two VaR backtesting techniques are then employed to compare the performance of the model with that of a group of linear and nonlinear generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models. The empirical results show the multifractal nature of price volatility in Chinese stock market. VaR measures based on the multifractal volatility model and EVT method outperform many GARCH-type models at high-risk levels.

Measuring Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall of crude oil portfolio using extreme value theory and vine copula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Wenhua; Yang, Kun; Wei, Yu; Lei, Likun

2018-01-01

Volatilities of crude oil price have important impacts on the steady and sustainable development of world real economy. Thus it is of great academic and practical significance to model and measure the volatility and risk of crude oil markets accurately. This paper aims to measure the Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) of a portfolio consists of four crude oil assets by using GARCH-type models, extreme value theory (EVT) and vine copulas. The backtesting results show that the combination of GARCH-type-EVT models and vine copula methods can produce accurate risk measures of the oil portfolio. Mixed R-vine copula is more flexible and superior to other vine copulas. Different GARCH-type models, which can depict the long-memory and/or leverage effect of oil price volatilities, however offer similar marginal distributions of the oil returns.

On the impacts of computing daily temperatures as the average of the daily minimum and maximum temperatures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Villarini, Gabriele; Khouakhi, Abdou; Cunningham, Evan

2017-12-01

Daily temperature values are generally computed as the average of the daily minimum and maximum observations, which can lead to biases in the estimation of daily averaged values. This study examines the impacts of these biases on the calculation of climatology and trends in temperature extremes at 409 sites in North America with at least 25 years of complete hourly records. Our results show that the calculation of daily temperature based on the average of minimum and maximum daily readings leads to an overestimation of the daily values of 10+ % when focusing on extremes and values above (below) high (low) thresholds. Moreover, the effects of the data processing method on trend estimation are generally small, even though the use of the daily minimum and maximum readings reduces the power of trend detection ( 5-10% fewer trends detected in comparison with the reference data).

Generation of multivariate near shore extreme wave conditions based on an extreme value copula for offshore boundary conditions.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leyssen, Gert; Mercelis, Peter; De Schoesitter, Philippe; Blanckaert, Joris

2013-04-01

Near shore extreme wave conditions, used as input for numerical wave agitation simulations and for the dimensioning of coastal defense structures, need to be determined at a harbour entrance situated at the French North Sea coast. To obtain significant wave heights, the numerical wave model SWAN has been used. A multivariate approach was used to account for the joint probabilities. Considered variables are: wind velocity and direction, water level and significant offshore wave height and wave period. In a first step a univariate extreme value distribution has been determined for the main variables. By means of a technique based on the mean excess function, an appropriate member of the GPD is selected. An optimal threshold for peak over threshold selection is determined by maximum likelihood optimization. Next, the joint dependency structure for the primary random variables is modeled by an extreme value copula. Eventually the multivariate domain of variables was stratified in different classes, each of which representing a combination of variable quantiles with a joint probability, which are used for model simulation. The main variable is the wind velocity, as in the area of concern extreme wave conditions are wind driven. The analysis is repeated for 9 different wind directions. The secondary variable is water level. In shallow waters extreme waves will be directly affected by water depth. Hence the joint probability of occurrence for water level and wave height is of major importance for design of coastal defense structures. Wind velocity and water levels are only dependent for some wind directions (wind induced setup). Dependent directions are detected using a Kendall and Spearman test and appeared to be those with the longest fetch. For these directions, wind velocity and water level extreme value distributions are multivariately linked through a Gumbel Copula. These distributions are stratified into classes of which the frequency of occurrence can be calculated. For the remaining directions the univariate extreme wind velocity distribution is stratified, each class combined with 5 high water levels. The wave height at the model boundaries was taken into account by a regression with the extreme wind velocity at the offshore location. The regression line and the 95% confidence limits where combined with each class. Eventually the wave period is computed by a new regression with the significant wave height. This way 1103 synthetic events were selected and simulated with the SWAN wave model, each of which a frequency of occurrence is calculated for. Hence near shore significant wave heights are obtained with corresponding frequencies. The statistical distribution of the near shore wave heights is determined by sorting the model results in a descending order and accumulating the corresponding frequencies. This approach allows determination of conditional return periods. For example, for the imposed univariate design return periods of 100 years for significant wave height and 30 years for water level, the joint return period for a simultaneous exceedance of both conditions can be computed as 4000 years. Hence, this methodology allows for a probabilistic design of coastal defense structures.

Towards a General Theory of Extremes for Observables of Chaotic Dynamical Systems.

PubMed

Lucarini, Valerio; Faranda, Davide; Wouters, Jeroen; Kuna, Tobias

2014-01-01

In this paper we provide a connection between the geometrical properties of the attractor of a chaotic dynamical system and the distribution of extreme values. We show that the extremes of so-called physical observables are distributed according to the classical generalised Pareto distribution and derive explicit expressions for the scaling and the shape parameter. In particular, we derive that the shape parameter does not depend on the chosen observables, but only on the partial dimensions of the invariant measure on the stable, unstable, and neutral manifolds. The shape parameter is negative and is close to zero when high-dimensional systems are considered. This result agrees with what was derived recently using the generalized extreme value approach. Combining the results obtained using such physical observables and the properties of the extremes of distance observables, it is possible to derive estimates of the partial dimensions of the attractor along the stable and the unstable directions of the flow. Moreover, by writing the shape parameter in terms of moments of the extremes of the considered observable and by using linear response theory, we relate the sensitivity to perturbations of the shape parameter to the sensitivity of the moments, of the partial dimensions, and of the Kaplan-Yorke dimension of the attractor. Preliminary numerical investigations provide encouraging results on the applicability of the theory presented here. The results presented here do not apply for all combinations of Axiom A systems and observables, but the breakdown seems to be related to very special geometrical configurations.

Magnesium Isotope Ratios in ω Centauri Red Giants

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Da Costa, G. S.; Norris, John E.; Yong, David

2013-05-01

We have used the high-resolution observations obtained at the Anglo-Australian Telescope with Ultra-High Resolution Facility (R ~ 100,000) and at Gemini-S with b-HROS (R ~ 150,000) to determine magnesium isotope ratios for seven ω Cen red giants that cover a range in iron abundance from [Fe/H] = -1.78 to -0.78 dex, and for two red giants in M4 (NGC 6121). The ω Cen stars sample both the "primordial" (i.e., O-rich, Na- and Al-poor) and the "extreme" (O-depleted, Na- and Al-rich) populations in the cluster. The primordial population stars in both ω Cen and M4 show (25Mg, 26Mg)/24Mg isotopic ratios that are consistent with those found for the primordial population in other globular clusters with similar [Fe/H] values. The isotopic ratios for the ω Cen extreme stars are also consistent with those for extreme population stars in other clusters. The results for the extreme population stars studied indicate that the 26Mg/24Mg ratio is highest at intermediate metallicities ([Fe/H] < -1.4 dex), and for the highest [Al/Fe] values. Further, the relative abundance of 26Mg in the extreme population stars is notably higher than that of 25Mg, in contrast to model predictions. The 25Mg/24Mg isotopic ratio in fact does not show any obvious dependence on either [Fe/H] or [Al/Fe] nor, intriguingly, any obvious difference between the primordial and extreme population stars.

Towards a General Theory of Extremes for Observables of Chaotic Dynamical Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lucarini, Valerio; Faranda, Davide; Wouters, Jeroen; Kuna, Tobias

2014-02-01

In this paper we provide a connection between the geometrical properties of the attractor of a chaotic dynamical system and the distribution of extreme values. We show that the extremes of so-called physical observables are distributed according to the classical generalised Pareto distribution and derive explicit expressions for the scaling and the shape parameter. In particular, we derive that the shape parameter does not depend on the chosen observables, but only on the partial dimensions of the invariant measure on the stable, unstable, and neutral manifolds. The shape parameter is negative and is close to zero when high-dimensional systems are considered. This result agrees with what was derived recently using the generalized extreme value approach. Combining the results obtained using such physical observables and the properties of the extremes of distance observables, it is possible to derive estimates of the partial dimensions of the attractor along the stable and the unstable directions of the flow. Moreover, by writing the shape parameter in terms of moments of the extremes of the considered observable and by using linear response theory, we relate the sensitivity to perturbations of the shape parameter to the sensitivity of the moments, of the partial dimensions, and of the Kaplan-Yorke dimension of the attractor. Preliminary numerical investigations provide encouraging results on the applicability of the theory presented here. The results presented here do not apply for all combinations of Axiom A systems and observables, but the breakdown seems to be related to very special geometrical configurations.

Statistical lamb wave localization based on extreme value theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harley, Joel B.

2018-04-01

Guided wave localization methods based on delay-and-sum imaging, matched field processing, and other techniques have been designed and researched to create images that locate and describe structural damage. The maximum value of these images typically represent an estimated damage location. Yet, it is often unclear if this maximum value, or any other value in the image, is a statistically significant indicator of damage. Furthermore, there are currently few, if any, approaches to assess the statistical significance of guided wave localization images. As a result, we present statistical delay-and-sum and statistical matched field processing localization methods to create statistically significant images of damage. Our framework uses constant rate of false alarm statistics and extreme value theory to detect damage with little prior information. We demonstrate our methods with in situ guided wave data from an aluminum plate to detect two 0.75 cm diameter holes. Our results show an expected improvement in statistical significance as the number of sensors increase. With seventeen sensors, both methods successfully detect damage with statistical significance.

Extreme Maximum Land Surface Temperatures.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garratt, J. R.

1992-09-01

There are numerous reports in the literature of observations of land surface temperatures. Some of these, almost all made in situ, reveal maximum values in the 50°-70°C range, with a few, made in desert regions, near 80°C. Consideration of a simplified form of the surface energy balance equation, utilizing likely upper values of absorbed shortwave flux (1000 W m2) and screen air temperature (55°C), that surface temperatures in the vicinity of 90°-100°C may occur for dry, darkish soils of low thermal conductivity (0.1-0.2 W m1 K1). Numerical simulations confirm this and suggest that temperature gradients in the first few centimeters of soil may reach 0.5°-1°C mm1 under these extreme conditions. The study bears upon the intrinsic interest of identifying extreme maximum temperatures and yields interesting information regarding the comfort zone of animals (including man).

Carbon monoxide in an extremely metal-poor galaxy.

PubMed

Shi, Yong; Wang, Junzhi; Zhang, Zhi-Yu; Gao, Yu; Hao, Cai-Na; Xia, Xiao-Yang; Gu, Qiusheng

2016-12-09

Extremely metal-poor galaxies with metallicity below 10% of the solar value in the local universe are the best analogues to investigating the interstellar medium at a quasi-primitive environment in the early universe. In spite of the ongoing formation of stars in these galaxies, the presence of molecular gas (which is known to provide the material reservoir for star formation in galaxies such as our Milky Way) remains unclear. Here we report the detection of carbon monoxide (CO), the primary tracer of molecular gas, in a galaxy with 7% solar metallicity, with additional detections in two galaxies at higher metallicities. Such detections offer direct evidence for the existence of molecular gas in these galaxies that contain few metals. Using archived infrared data, it is shown that the molecular gas mass per CO luminosity at extremely low metallicity is approximately one-thousand times the Milky Way value.

Carbon monoxide in an extremely metal-poor galaxy

PubMed Central

Shi, Yong; Wang, Junzhi; Zhang, Zhi-Yu; Gao, Yu; Hao, Cai-Na; Xia, Xiao-Yang; Gu, Qiusheng

2016-01-01

Extremely metal-poor galaxies with metallicity below 10% of the solar value in the local universe are the best analogues to investigating the interstellar medium at a quasi-primitive environment in the early universe. In spite of the ongoing formation of stars in these galaxies, the presence of molecular gas (which is known to provide the material reservoir for star formation in galaxies such as our Milky Way) remains unclear. Here we report the detection of carbon monoxide (CO), the primary tracer of molecular gas, in a galaxy with 7% solar metallicity, with additional detections in two galaxies at higher metallicities. Such detections offer direct evidence for the existence of molecular gas in these galaxies that contain few metals. Using archived infrared data, it is shown that the molecular gas mass per CO luminosity at extremely low metallicity is approximately one-thousand times the Milky Way value. PMID:27934880

Dynamical systems proxies of atmospheric predictability and mid-latitude extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Messori, Gabriele; Faranda, Davide; Caballero, Rodrigo; Yiou, Pascal

2017-04-01

Extreme weather ocurrences carry enormous social and economic costs and routinely garner widespread scientific and media coverage. Many extremes (for e.g. storms, heatwaves, cold spells, heavy precipitation) are tied to specific patterns of midlatitude atmospheric circulation. The ability to identify these patterns and use them to enhance the predictability of the extremes is therefore a topic of crucial societal and economic value. We propose a novel predictability pathway for extreme events, by building upon recent advances in dynamical systems theory. We use two simple dynamical systems metrics - local dimension and persistence - to identify sets of similar large-scale atmospheric flow patterns which present a coherent temporal evolution. When these patterns correspond to weather extremes, they therefore afford a particularly good forward predictability. We specifically test this technique on European winter temperatures, whose variability largely depends on the atmospheric circulation in the North Atlantic region. We find that our dynamical systems approach provides predictability of large-scale temperature extremes up to one week in advance.

Acclimatization and tolerance to extreme altitude

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

West, J. B.

1993-01-01

During the last ten years, two major experiments have elucidated the factors determining acclimatization and tolerance to extreme altitude (over 7000 m). These were the American Medical Research Expedition to Everest, and the low pressure chamber simulation, Operation Everest II. Extreme hyperventilation is one of the most important responses to extreme altitude. Its chief value is that it allows the climber to maintain an alveolar PO2 which keeps the arterial PO2 above dangerously low levels. Even so, there is evidence of residual impairment of central nervous system function after ascents to extreme altitude, and maximal oxygen consumption falls precipitously above 7000 m. The term 'acclimatization' is probably not appropriate for altitudes above 8000 m, because the body steadily deteriorates at these altitudes. Tolerance to extreme altitude is critically dependent on barometric pressure, and even seasonal changes in pressure probably affect climbing performance near the summit of Mt Everest. Supplementary oxygen always improves exercise tolerance at extreme altitudes, and rescue oxygen should be available on climbing expeditions to 8000 m peaks.

Trends in hydrological extremes in the Senegal and the Niger Rivers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilcox, C.; Bodian, A.; Vischel, T.; Panthou, G.; Quantin, G.

2017-12-01

In recent years, West Africa has witnessed several floods of unprecedented magnitude. Although the evolution of hydrological extremes has been evaluated in the region to some extent, results lack regional coverage, significance levels, uncertainty estimations, model selection criteria, or a combination of the above. In this study, Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distributions with and without various non-stationary temporal covariates are applied to annual maxima of daily discharge (AMAX) data sets in the Sudano-Guinean part of the Senegal River basin and in the Sahelian part of the Niger River basin. The data ranges from the 1950s to the 2010s. The two models of best fit most often selected (with an alpha=0.05 certainty level) were 1) a double-linear model for the central tendency parameter (μ) with stationary dispersion (σ) and 2) a double-linear model for both parameters. Change points are relatively consistent for the Senegal basin, with stations switching from a decreasing streamflow trend to an increasing streamflow trend in the early 1980s. In the Niger basin the trend in μ was generally positive with an increase in slope after the change point, but the change point location was less consistent. The study clearly demonstrates the significant trends in extreme discharge values in West Africa over the past six decades. Moreover, it proposes a clear methodology for comparing GEV models and selecting the best for use. The return levels generated from the chosen models can be applied to river basin management and hydraulic works sizing. The results provide a first evaluation of non-stationarity in extreme hydrological values in West Africa that is accompanied by significance levels, uncertainties, and non-stationary return level estimations .

Oceanography: the present and future

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Brewer, P.G.

This volume is the proceedings of a symposium held September 29 to October 2, 1980 at Woods Hole, Massachusetts, commemorating the 50th anniversary of the founding of the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution. The book is the companion volume to ''Oceanography: the Past'' also published by Springer-Verlag. The papers are organized not by conventional disciplinary topics but by the ''scale'' of the oceanographic process: Part I, Small and Local Scale Oceanography; Part II, Regional Scale Oceanography; Part III, Global Scale Oceanography; and Part IV, The Human Scale. The articles presented, however, do not summarize such projects but give recognizable disciplinary summariesmore » and predictions in line with the subtitle of the book. In general, the articles are classed by this scale concept, although ''Shoreline Research'' by Pilkey and ''The Oceans Nearby'' by Murphy are better placed in the section The Human Scale and Bolin's ''Changing Global Biogeochemistry'' switched from The Human Scale to Global Scale as indicated by the title. This volume should be of value to marine geologists and geochemists, sedimentologists, and public-interest (environmental) geologists interested in oceanographic processes.« less

Heterologous expression and characterization of processing α-glucosidase I from Aspergillus brasiliensis ATCC 9642.

PubMed

Miyazaki, Takatsugu; Matsumoto, Yuji; Matsuda, Kana; Kurakata, Yuma; Matsuo, Ichiro; Ito, Yukishige; Nishikawa, Atsushi; Tonozuka, Takashi

2011-12-01

A gene for processing α-glucosidase I from a filamentous fungus, Aspergillus brasiliensis (formerly called Aspergillus niger) ATCC 9642 was cloned and fused to a glutathione S-transferase tag. The active construct with the highest production level was a truncation mutant deleting the first 16 residues of the hydrophobic N-terminal domain. This fusion enzyme hydrolyzed pyridylaminated (PA-) oligosaccharides Glc(3)Man(9)GlcNAc(2)-PA and Glc(3)Man(4)-PA and the products were identified as Glc(2)Man(9)GlcNAc(2)-PA and Glc(2)Man(4)-PA, respectively. Saturation curves were obtained for both Glc(3)Man(9)GlcNAc(2)-PA and Glc(3)Man(4)-PA, and the K (m) values for both substrates were estimated in the micromolar range. When 1 μM Glc(3)Man(4)-PA was used as a substrate, the inhibitors kojibiose and 1-deoxynojirimycin had similar effects on the enzyme; at 20 μM concentration, both inhibitors reduced activity by 50%. © Springer Science+Business Media, LLC 2011

[Reproducibility of subjective refraction measurement].

PubMed

Grein, H-J; Schmidt, O; Ritsche, A

2014-11-01

Reproducibility of subjective refraction measurement is limited by various factors. The main factors affecting reproducibility include the characteristics of the measurement method and of the subject and the examiner. This article presents the results of a study on this topic, focusing on the reproducibility of subjective refraction measurement in healthy eyes. The results of previous studies are not all presented in the same way by the respective authors and cannot be fully standardized without consulting the original scientific data. To the extent that they are comparable, the results of our study largely correspond largely with those of previous investigations: During repeated subjective refraction measurement, 95% of the deviation from the mean value was approximately ±0.2 D to ±0.65 D for the spherical equivalent and cylindrical power. The reproducibility of subjective refraction measurement in healthy eyes is limited, even under ideal conditions. Correct assessment of refraction results is only feasible after identifying individual variability. Several measurements are required. Refraction cannot be measured without a tolerance range. The English full-text version of this article is available at SpringerLink (under supplemental).

The arctic water resource vulnerability index: An integrated assessment tool for community resilience and vulnerability with respect to freshwater

USGS Publications Warehouse

Alessa, L.; Kliskey, A.; Lammers, R.; Arp, C.; White, D.; Hinzman, L.; Busey, R.

2008-01-01

People in the Arctic face uncertainty in their daily lives as they contend with environmental changes at a range of scales from local to global. Freshwater is a critical resource to people, and although water resource indicators have been developed that operate from regional to global scales and for midlatitude to equatorial environments, no appropriate index exists for assessing the vulnerability of Arctic communities to changing water resources at the local scale. The Arctic Water Resource Vulnerability Index (AWRVI) is proposed as a tool that Arctic communities can use to assess their relative vulnerability-resilience to changes in their water resources from a variety of biophysical and socioeconomic processes. The AWRVI is based on a social-ecological systems perspective that includes physical and social indicators of change and is demonstrated in three case study communities/watersheds in Alaska. These results highlight the value of communities engaging in the process of using the AWRVI and the diagnostic capability of examining the suite of constituent physical and social scores rather than the total AWRVI score alone. ?? 2008 Springer Science+Business Media, LLC.

Spreading Resistance on Thin Film Contacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Peng; Lau, Y. Y.; Hung, D.; Gilgenbach, R. M.

2012-10-01

Electrical contact [1] is important to wire-array z-pinches, metal-insulator-vacuum junctions, and high power microwave sources, etc. Contact problems account for 40 percent of all electrical failures, from small scale consumer electronics to large scale defense and aerospace systems. The crowding of the current lines at contacts leads to enhanced localized heating, a measure of which is the spreading resistance (Rs). For a microscopic area of contact (the ``a-spot'' [1]) on a thin film, we calculate Rs in both Cartesian and cylindrical geometries [2]. In the limit of small film thickness, h, the normalized thin film spreading resistance converges to the finite values, 2.77 for the Cartesian case and 0.28 for the cylindrical case. These same finite limits are found to be applicable to the a-spot between bulk solids in the high frequency limit if the skin depth is identified with h. Extension to a general a-spot geometry is proposed [2]. [4pt] [1] R. Holm, Electric Contacts, 4th ed., Springer (1967). [0pt] [2] P. Zhang et al., IEEE Trans. Electron Devices 59, 1936 (2012).

Seismic Hazard and Risk Assessments for Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan, China, Area

USGS Publications Warehouse

Xie, F.; Wang, Z.; Liu, J.

2011-01-01

Seismic hazard and risk in the Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan, China, area were estimated from 500-year intensity observations. First, we digitized the intensity observations (maps) using ArcGIS with a cell size of 0.1 ?? 0.1??. Second, we performed a statistical analysis on the digitized intensity data, determined an average b value (0.39), and derived the intensity-frequency relationship (hazard curve) for each cell. Finally, based on a Poisson model for earthquake occurrence, we calculated seismic risk in terms of a probability of I ??? 7, 8, or 9 in 50 years. We also calculated the corresponding 10 percent probability of exceedance of these intensities in 50 years. The advantages of assessing seismic hazard and risk from intensity records are that (1) fewer assumptions (i. e., earthquake source and ground motion attenuation) are made, and (2) site-effect is included. Our study shows that the area has high seismic hazard and risk. Our study also suggests that current design peak ground acceleration or intensity for the area may not be adequate. ?? 2010 Birkh??user / Springer Basel AG.

Geophysical data integration, stochastic simulation and significance analysis of groundwater responses using ANOVA in the Chicot Aquifer system, Louisiana, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rahman, A.; Tsai, F.T.-C.; White, C.D.; Carlson, D.A.; Willson, C.S.

2008-01-01

Data integration is challenging where there are different levels of support between primary and secondary data that need to be correlated in various ways. A geostatistical method is described, which integrates the hydraulic conductivity (K) measurements and electrical resistivity data to better estimate the K distribution in the Upper Chicot Aquifer of southwestern Louisiana, USA. The K measurements were obtained from pumping tests and represent the primary (hard) data. Borehole electrical resistivity data from electrical logs were regarded as the secondary (soft) data, and were used to infer K values through Archie's law and the Kozeny-Carman equation. A pseudo cross-semivariogram was developed to cope with the resistivity data non-collocation. Uncertainties in the auto-semivariograms and pseudo cross-semivariogram were quantified. The groundwater flow model responses by the regionalized and coregionalized models of K were compared using analysis of variance (ANOVA). The results indicate that non-collocated secondary data may improve estimates of K and affect groundwater flow responses of practical interest, including specific capacity and drawdown. ?? Springer-Verlag 2007.

Vapor-phase interactions and diffusion of organic solvents in the unsaturated zone

USGS Publications Warehouse

Roy, W.R.; Griffin, R.A.

1990-01-01

This article presents an analysis of the interactions and static movement of 37 organic solvents as vapors through the unsaturated soil zone. The physicochemical interactions of the organic vapors with unsaturated soil materials were emphasized with focus on diffusive, and adsorptive interactions. Fick's Law and porous media diffusion coefficients for most of the solvent vapors were either compiled or estimated; coefficients were not available for some of the fluorinated solvents. The adsorption of some of the solvent vapors by silica was concluded to be due to hydrogen bond formation with surface silanol groups. Heats of adsorption data for different adsorbents were also compiled. There were very few data on the adsorption of these solvent vapors by soils, but it appears that the magnitude of adsorption of nonpolar solvents is reduced as the relative humidity of the vapor-solid system is increased. Consequently, the interaction of the vapors may then separated into two processes; (1) gas-water partitioning described by Henry's Law constants, and (2) solid-water adsorption coefficients which may be estimated from liquid-solid partition coefficients (Kd values). ?? 1990 Springer-Verlag New York Inc.

The orthoenstatite to clinoenstatite transformation by shearing and reversion by annealing: Mechanism and potential applications

USGS Publications Warehouse

Coe, R.S.; Kirby, S.H.

1975-01-01

Clinoenstatite (CE) was produced by deforming single-crystal specimens of ortho-enstatite (OE) in several different sorta of experiments. Examination with light and trans-mission electron microscopes shows that the transformation is coherent and involves a macroscopic shear on (100) [001] through an angle of 12.8??1.3 ??, in good agreement with the theoretically expected value of 13.3 ??, and that the transformation is accomplished by glide on (100) of partial dislocations with b= 0.83[001]. Structural analysis provides further insight into the transformation mechanism. Reversion occurs in specimens annealed under a variety of conditions, and thin lamellae of CE in unconstrained, low-strain specimens recover their original shape during transformation back to OE. Our experiments and thermodynamic estimates both suggest that the equilibrium transition temperature is raised roughly 300 ?? C per kilobar of shear stress on (100) [001]. This provides the basis of a method by which it may be possible to determine the magnitude as well as the orientation of the principal stresses that produce CE in nature during deformation of enstatite-bearing rocks. ?? 1975 Springer-Verlag.

Suburban wildlife: Lessons, challenges, and opportunities

USGS Publications Warehouse

DeStefano, S.; Deblinger, R.D.; Miller, C.

2005-01-01

The United States, as well as most developed and many developing nations worldwide, is becoming increasingly urban and suburban.Although urban, suburban, and commercial development account for less than one percent to just over 20% of land use among states, 50-90% of the residents of those states can be classified as urban or suburban dwellers. The population of the U.S. as a whole has risen from being > 95% rural in the 1790s to about 80% urban-suburban today. With these changes in land use and demographic patterns come changes in values and attitudes; many urbanites and suburbanites view wildlife and nature differently than rural residents. These are among the challenges faced by wildlife biologists and natural resource managers in a rapidly urbanizing world. In 2003, we convened a symposium to discuss issues related to suburban wildlife. The papers presented in this special issue of Urban Ecosystems address the lessons learned from the early and recently rapidly expanding literature, the challenges we face today, and the opportunities that can help deal with what is one of the biggest challenges to conservation in a modernizing world. ?? 2005 Springer Science + Business Media, Inc.

DESPERATELY SEEKING HAPPINESS: VALUING HAPPINESS IS ASSOCIATED WITH SYMPTOMS AND DIAGNOSIS OF DEPRESSION.

PubMed

Ford, Brett Q; Shallcross, Amanda J; Mauss, Iris B; Floerke, Victoria A; Gruber, June

Culture shapes the emotions people feel and want to feel. In Western cultures, happiness is an emotion that many people want to feel. Although experiencing happiness is associated with increased well-being and psychological health, recent evidence suggests wanting to feel happy to an extreme degree, or, highly valuing happiness, leads to decreased well-being. To examine whether these effects of valuing happiness might extend to clinical outcomes, we examined the hypothesis that depression is associated with highly valuing happiness. To do so, we examined the relationship between valuing happiness and depression in two U.S. samples. As hypothesized, valuing happiness was associated with increased depressive symptoms in a community sample with remitted major depressive disorder (MDD), even when controlling for social desirability and neuroticism (Study 1). Furthermore, valuing happiness was elevated in a remitted MDD sample (vs. healthy controls), even when controlling for current depressive symptoms, general affect valuation, and extreme goal pursuit (Study 2). Taken together, these findings suggest that the culturally-pervasive value placed on attaining happiness can represent a risk factor for symptoms and a diagnosis of depression. More broadly, they indicate that a cultural approach can meaningfully extend our understanding of clinical phenomena.

DESPERATELY SEEKING HAPPINESS: VALUING HAPPINESS IS ASSOCIATED WITH SYMPTOMS AND DIAGNOSIS OF DEPRESSION

PubMed Central

Ford, Brett Q.; Shallcross, Amanda J.; Mauss, Iris B.; Floerke, Victoria A.; Gruber, June

2015-01-01

Culture shapes the emotions people feel and want to feel. In Western cultures, happiness is an emotion that many people want to feel. Although experiencing happiness is associated with increased well-being and psychological health, recent evidence suggests wanting to feel happy to an extreme degree, or, highly valuing happiness, leads to decreased well-being. To examine whether these effects of valuing happiness might extend to clinical outcomes, we examined the hypothesis that depression is associated with highly valuing happiness. To do so, we examined the relationship between valuing happiness and depression in two U.S. samples. As hypothesized, valuing happiness was associated with increased depressive symptoms in a community sample with remitted major depressive disorder (MDD), even when controlling for social desirability and neuroticism (Study 1). Furthermore, valuing happiness was elevated in a remitted MDD sample (vs. healthy controls), even when controlling for current depressive symptoms, general affect valuation, and extreme goal pursuit (Study 2). Taken together, these findings suggest that the culturally-pervasive value placed on attaining happiness can represent a risk factor for symptoms and a diagnosis of depression. More broadly, they indicate that a cultural approach can meaningfully extend our understanding of clinical phenomena. PMID:25678736

Election Verifiability: Cryptographic Definitions and an Analysis of Helios and JCJ

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-08-06

SHA - 256 [98], we assume that H is a random oracle to prove Theorem 2. Moreover, we assume the sigma protocols used by Helios 4.0 satisfy the...Aspects in Security and Trust, volume 5491 of LNCS, pages 242– 256 . Springer, 2008. [68] Martin Hirt. Receipt-Free K-out-of-L Voting Based on ElGamal

State Instability and Terrorism

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-01-01

instability at the country-level using a modified breakdown theoretical framework. This framework is based especially upon the work of Emile Durkheim ...Quantitative Criminology, ed. Alex R. Piquero and David Weisburd. New York: Springer New York. 225 Durkheim , Emile . 1930 [1951]. Suicide: A...terrorism is a form ( Durkheim , 1930 [1951]; Useem, 1998). In addition, different types of instability ought to invite different levels of terrorism

Empowering Grandparents Raising Grandchildren: A Training Manual for Group Leaders. Springer Series on Life Styles and Issues in Aging.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cox, Carole B.

Noting that grandparents in the parenting role are often overwhelmed by the problems of their children, grandchildren, and the social milieu in which they live, this manual presents a 14-session workshop series designed to empower grandparents who are raising their grandchildren alone. Designed to complement "To Grandmother's House We Go and…

Counseling Female Offenders and Victims: A Strengths-Restorative Approach. Springer Series on Family Violence.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

van Wormer, Katherine

This books considers the many aspects of how the criminal justice system can be reshaped to address the needs of victims of violence and offenders who themselves are often the victims of abuse. It presents a new model that offers an integrated framework to combine tenets of social work's strengths framework with the restorative justice model. It…

Variational Iterative Methods for Nonsymmetric Systems of Linear Equations.

DTIC Science & Technology

1981-08-01

With a third matrix-vector product, b(i) can be computed as i j ( ATAr i+l’pj)/ApjpApj), and the previous (Apj) need not be saved. Page 8 I OCR I Orthomin... Economics and Mathematical Systems, Volume 134, Springer-Verlag, Berlin, 1976. [51 Paul Concus, Gene H. Golub, and Dianne P. O’Leary. A generalized

The Emperor’s New Password Manager: Security Analysis of Web-based Password Managers

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-07-07

POST re- quest, LastPass will store h’ as authenticating Alice. Mallory can then use otp’ to log-in to LastPass us- ing otp’. Of course , decrypting the...everywhere. [36] M. Rochkind. Security, forms, and error handling. In Expert PHP and MySQL , pages 191–247. Springer, 2013. [37] D. Silver, S. Jana, E

Numerical and Experimental Investigation of Multiple Shock Wave/Turbulent Boundary Layer Interactions in a Rectangular Duct

DTIC Science & Technology

1988-01-06

the bottom % kall followin,, the interaction. At 6Wuh = 0.35 the shock train would not stay attached to a single wall long enough for the surface...Interaction of a Shock Wave with a Laminar Boundary Layer," Lecture Notes in Physics, Vol. 8, Springer-Verlag, 1971 , pp. 151-163. 51 MacCormack, R. W

Theory of Non-First Norman Form Relational Databases

DTIC Science & Technology

1986-01-01

741. [BR] Benn, W. and B. Radig, "Erweiterte Anfragen nach Relationenge- bilden in Form nichtnormlalisierter Relationen." In Datenbank - Systeme fur...Relationenmodells." In Datenbank -Systeme far Biro, Technik und Wissenschaft, A. Blaser, P. Pistor, Eds., Informatik-Fachberichte Nr. 94, Springer...Versionenbe- hafteter, Hierarchisch Strukturierter Tupel." In Datenbank -Systeme fur Biro, Technik und Wissenschaft, A. Blaser, P. Pistor, Eds

Computer Modeling of the Effects of Atmospheric Conditions on Sound Signatures

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-02-01

simulation. 11 5. References 1. Attenborough K. Sound propagation in the atmosphere. In: Rossing TD, editor. Springer handbook of...ARL-TR-7602 ● FEB 2016 US Army Research Laboratory Computer Modeling of the Effects of Atmospheric Conditions on Sound ...Laboratory Computer Modeling of the Effects of Atmospheric Conditions on Sound Signatures by Sarah Wagner Science and Engineering Apprentice

Computer Aided Multi-Data Fusion Dismount Modeling

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-03-22

The ability of geometric morphometric methods to estimate a known covariance matrix., volume 49. Systematic Biology, 2000. [39] Wang C., Yuen M...the use of human shape descriptors like landmarks, body composition, body segmentation, skeletonisation, body representation using geometrical shapes...Springer. [10] Bookstein, F. L. “ Morphometric Tools for Landmark Data: Geometry and Biology.” Cambridge University Press, 1991. [11] Borengasser, M

Phenazines in the environment: microbes, habitats, and ecological relevance. In: Chincholkar, S., Thomashow, L., editors. Microbial phenazines: biosynthesis, agriculture and health. New York, NY; Springer

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Phenazines, the pigmented, redox-active metabolites produced by certain fluorescent pseudomonads, streptomycetes, and members of a few other bacterial genera, have long been recognized for their broad-spectrum antibiotic activity. Much has been learned in recent years about the synthesis of these co...

Microwave, Semiconductor Research - Materials, Devices and Circuits.

DTIC Science & Technology

1984-03-01

Phenomena, Gamisch/Partenkirchen, Germany, 1982 (Springer-Verlag, Berlin). 3. "Observation of nonlinear refractive index in molecular liquids by...in non-walled dielectric waveguide including a novel use of transverse resonance equivalent circuits for the treatment of dispersion in graded index ...number) This program covers the growth and assessment of Gallium Arsenide, and related compounds and alloys, for use in microwave, millimeter, and

Correction to: Prospective associations between recalled parental bonding and perinatal depression: a cohort study in urban and rural Turkey.

PubMed

Duman, Berker; Senturk Cankorur, Vesile; Taylor, Clare; Stewart, Robert

2018-07-01

The article 'Prospective associations between recalled parental bonding and perinatal depression: a cohort study in urban and rural Turkey, written by Berker Duman, Vesile Senturk Cankorur, Clare Taylor and Robert Stewart was originally published electronically on the publisher's internet portal (currently SpringerLink) on January 10, 2018 without open access.