A climatology of extreme wave height events impacting eastern Lake Ontario shorelines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grieco, Matthew B.; DeGaetano, Arthur T.

2018-05-01

Model-derived wave height data for points along the eastern Lake Ontario shoreline provide the basis for a 36-year climatology of extreme wave heights. The most extreme wave heights exceed 6 m at all locations, except for those along the extreme northeastern shoreline of the Lake. Typically extreme wave events are a regional phenomenon, affecting multiple locations along the eastern and southeastern shoreline. A pronounced seasonal cycle in wave event occurrence is characterized by peaks in autumn and spring, with an absence of 99.9th percentile wave heights during summer. Less extreme (90th percentile heights) occur in all months with a peak in winter. Extreme wave events are most often associated with a low pressure center tracking to the north of Lake Ontario from the Ohio Valley. This track produces the strong winds > 10 ms-1 and predominantly west-to-east wind fetch that characterize high wave height events. The seasonal frequency of the wave events exceeding the historical 95th percentile has shown a statistically significant increase at most locations since 1979. This has been partially offset by declines in the frequency of events with wave heights between the 90 and 95th percentile. Seasonal extreme wave height frequency is also found to be related to the occurrence of El Niño. During El Niño winters, there are significantly fewer events with wave heights exceeding 2.5 m than would be expected by chance. A corresponding relationship to La Niña occurrence is not evident.

Changes in the extreme wave heights over the Baltic Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kudryavtseva, Nadia; Soomere, Tarmo

2017-04-01

Storms over the Baltic Sea and northwestern Europe have a large impact on the population, offshore industry, and shipping. The understanding of extreme events in sea wave heights and their change due to the climate change and variability is critical for assessment of flooding risks and coastal protection. The BACCII Assessment of Climate Change for the Baltic Sea Basin showed that the extreme events analysis of wind waves is currently not very well addressed, as well as satellite observations of the wave heights. Here we discuss the analysis of all existing satellite altimetry data over the Baltic Sea Basin regarding extremes in the wave heights. In this talk for the first time, we present an analysis of 100-yr return periods, fitted generalized Pareto and Weibull distributions, number, and frequency of extreme events in wave heights in the Baltic Sea measured by the multi-mission satellite altimetry. The data span more than 23 years and provide an excellent spatial coverage over the Baltic Sea, allowing to study in details spatial variations and changes in extreme wave heights. The analysis is based on an application of the Initial Distribution Method, Annual Maxima method and Peak-Over-Threshold approach to satellite altimetry data, all validated in comparison with in-situ wave height measurements. Here we show that the 100-yr return periods of wave heights show significant spatial changes over the Baltic Sea indicating a decrease in the southern part of the Baltic Sea and an increase in adjacent areas, which can significantly affect coast vulnerability. Here we compare the observed shift with storm track database data and discuss a spatial correlation and possible connection between the changes in the storm tracks over the Baltic Sea and the change in the extreme wave heights.

Seasonal and Non-Seasonal Generalized Pareto Distribution to Estimate Extreme Significant Wave Height in The Banda Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nursamsiah; Nugroho Sugianto, Denny; Suprijanto, Jusup; Munasik; Yulianto, Bambang

2018-02-01

The information of extreme wave height return level was required for maritime planning and management. The recommendation methods in analyzing extreme wave were better distributed by Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD). Seasonal variation was often considered in the extreme wave model. This research aims to identify the best model of GPD by considering a seasonal variation of the extreme wave. By using percentile 95 % as the threshold of extreme significant wave height, the seasonal GPD and non-seasonal GPD fitted. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov test was applied to identify the goodness of fit of the GPD model. The return value from seasonal and non-seasonal GPD was compared with the definition of return value as criteria. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov test result shows that GPD fits data very well both seasonal and non-seasonal model. The seasonal return value gives better information about the wave height characteristics.

Investigation of the relationship between hurricane waves and extreme runup

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thompson, D. M.; Stockdon, H. F.

2006-12-01

In addition to storm surge, the elevation of wave-induced runup plays a significant role in forcing geomorphic change during extreme storms. Empirical formulations for extreme runup, defined as the 2% exceedence level, are dependent on some measure of significant offshore wave height. Accurate prediction of extreme runup, particularly during hurricanes when wave heights are large, depends on selecting the most appropriate measure of wave height that provides energy to the nearshore system. Using measurements from deep-water wave buoys results in an overprediction of runup elevation. Under storm forcing these large waves dissipate across the shelf through friction, whitecapping and depth-limited breaking before reaching the beach and forcing swash processes. The use of a local, shallow water wave height has been shown to provide a more accurate estimate of extreme runup elevation (Stockdon, et. al. 2006); however, a specific definition of this local wave height has yet to be defined. Using observations of nearshore waves from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers' Field Research Facility (FRF) in Duck, NC during Hurricane Isabel, the most relevant measure of wave height for use in empirical runup parameterizations was examined. Spatial and temporal variability of the hurricane wave field, which made landfall on September 18, 2003, were modeled using SWAN. Comparisons with wave data from FRF gages and deep-water buoys operated by NOAA's National Data Buoy Center were used for model calibration. Various measures of local wave height (breaking, dissipation-based, etc.) were extracted from the model domain and used as input to the runup parameterizations. Video based observations of runup collected at the FRF during the storm were used to ground truth modeled values. Assessment of the most appropriate measure of wave height can be extended over a large area through comparisons to observations of storm- induced geomorphic change.

Changes to extreme wave climates of islands within the Western Tropical Pacific throughout the 21st century under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, with implications for island vulnerability and sustainability

USGS Publications Warehouse

Shope, James B.; Storlazzi, Curt; Erikson, Li; Hegermiller, Christie

2016-01-01

Waves are the dominant influence on coastal morphology and ecosystem structure of tropical Pacific islands. Wave heights, periods, and directions for the 21st century were projected using near-surface wind fields from four atmosphere-ocean coupled global climate models (GCM) under representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5. GCM-derived wind fields forced the global WAVEWATCH-III wave model to generate hourly time-series of bulk wave parameters around 25 islands in the mid to western tropical Pacific Ocean for historical (1976–2005), mid-, and end-of-century time periods. Extreme significant wave heights decreased (~10.0%) throughout the 21st century under both climate scenarios compared to historical wave conditions and the higher radiative forcing 8.5 scenario displayed a greater and more widespread decrease in extreme significant wave heights compared to the lower forcing 4.5 scenario. An exception was for the end-of-century June–August season. Offshore of islands in the central equatorial Pacific, extreme significant wave heights displayed the largest changes from historical values. The frequency of extreme events during December–February decreased under RCP 8.5, whereas the frequency increased under RCP 4.5. Mean wave directions often rotated more than 30° clockwise at several locations during June–August, which could indicate a weakening of the trade winds’ influence on extreme wave directions and increasing dominance of Southern Ocean swell or eastern shift of storm tracks. The projected changes in extreme wave heights, directions of extreme events, and frequencies at which extreme events occur will likely result in changes to the morphology and sustainability of island nations.

North Atlantic storm driving of extreme wave heights in the North Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bell, R. J.; Gray, S. L.; Jones, O. P.

2017-04-01

The relationship between storms and extreme ocean waves in the North Sea is assessed using a long-period wave data set and storms identified in the Interim ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim). An ensemble sensitivity analysis is used to provide information on the spatial and temporal forcing from mean sea-level pressure and surface wind associated with extreme ocean wave height responses. Extreme ocean waves in the central North Sea arise due to intense extratropical cyclone winds from either the cold conveyor belt (northerly-wind events) or the warm conveyor belt (southerly-wind events). The largest wave heights are associated with northerly-wind events which tend to have stronger wind speeds and occur as the cold conveyor belt wraps rearward round the cyclone to the cold side of the warm front. The northerly-wind events provide a larger fetch to the central North Sea to aid wave growth. Southerly-wind events are associated with the warm conveyor belts of intense extratropical cyclones that develop in the left upper tropospheric jet exit region. Ensemble sensitivity analysis can provide early warning of extreme wave events by demonstrating a relationship between wave height and high pressure to the west of the British Isles for northerly-wind events 48 h prior. Southerly-wind extreme events demonstrate sensitivity to low pressure to the west of the British Isles 36 h prior.

Storms or cold fronts? What is really responsible for the extreme waves regime in the Colombian Caribbean coast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Otero, L. J.; Ortiz-Royero, J. C.; Ruiz-Merchan, J. K.; Higgins, A. E.; Henriquez, S. A.

2015-05-01

On Friday, 7 March 2009, a 200 m-long section of the tourist pier in Puerto Colombia collapsed under the impact of the waves generated by a cold front in the area. The aim of this study is to determine the contribution and importance of cold fronts and storms on extreme waves in different areas of the Colombian Caribbean to determine the degree of the threat posed by the flood processes to which these coastal populations are exposed and the actions to which coastal engineering constructions should be subject. In the calculation of maritime constructions, the most important parameter is the wave's height; therefore, it is necessary to definitively know the design wave height to which a coastal engineering structure should be resistant. This wave height varies according to the return period considered. Using Gumbel's extreme value methodology, the significant height values for the study area were calculated. The methodology was evaluated using data from the re-analysis of the spectral NOAA Wavewatch III (WW3) model for 15 points along the 1600 km of the Colombia Caribbean coast (continental and insular) of the last 15 years. The results demonstrated that the extreme waves caused by tropical cyclones and cold fronts have different effects along the Colombian Caribbean coast. Storms and hurricanes are of greater importance in the Guajira Peninsula (Alta Guajira). In the central area formed by Baja Guajira, Santa Marta, Barranquilla, and Cartagena, the strong influence of cold fronts on extreme waves is evident. On the other hand, in the southern region of the Colombian Caribbean coast, from the Gulf of Morrosquillo to the Gulf of Urabá, even though extreme waves are lower than in the previous regions, extreme waves are dominated mainly by the passage of cold fronts. Extreme waves in the San Andrés and Providencia insular region present a different dynamic from that in the continental area due to its geographic location. The wave heights in the extreme regime are similar in magnitude to those found in Alta Guajira, but the extreme waves associated with the passage of cold fronts in this region have lower return periods than the extreme waves associated with hurricane season. These results are of great importance when evaluating the threat of extreme waves in the coastal and port infrastructure, for purposes of the design of new constructions, and in the coastal flood processes due to run-up because, according to the site of interest in the coast, the forces that shape extreme waves are not the same.

Generation of multivariate near shore extreme wave conditions based on an extreme value copula for offshore boundary conditions.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leyssen, Gert; Mercelis, Peter; De Schoesitter, Philippe; Blanckaert, Joris

2013-04-01

Near shore extreme wave conditions, used as input for numerical wave agitation simulations and for the dimensioning of coastal defense structures, need to be determined at a harbour entrance situated at the French North Sea coast. To obtain significant wave heights, the numerical wave model SWAN has been used. A multivariate approach was used to account for the joint probabilities. Considered variables are: wind velocity and direction, water level and significant offshore wave height and wave period. In a first step a univariate extreme value distribution has been determined for the main variables. By means of a technique based on the mean excess function, an appropriate member of the GPD is selected. An optimal threshold for peak over threshold selection is determined by maximum likelihood optimization. Next, the joint dependency structure for the primary random variables is modeled by an extreme value copula. Eventually the multivariate domain of variables was stratified in different classes, each of which representing a combination of variable quantiles with a joint probability, which are used for model simulation. The main variable is the wind velocity, as in the area of concern extreme wave conditions are wind driven. The analysis is repeated for 9 different wind directions. The secondary variable is water level. In shallow waters extreme waves will be directly affected by water depth. Hence the joint probability of occurrence for water level and wave height is of major importance for design of coastal defense structures. Wind velocity and water levels are only dependent for some wind directions (wind induced setup). Dependent directions are detected using a Kendall and Spearman test and appeared to be those with the longest fetch. For these directions, wind velocity and water level extreme value distributions are multivariately linked through a Gumbel Copula. These distributions are stratified into classes of which the frequency of occurrence can be calculated. For the remaining directions the univariate extreme wind velocity distribution is stratified, each class combined with 5 high water levels. The wave height at the model boundaries was taken into account by a regression with the extreme wind velocity at the offshore location. The regression line and the 95% confidence limits where combined with each class. Eventually the wave period is computed by a new regression with the significant wave height. This way 1103 synthetic events were selected and simulated with the SWAN wave model, each of which a frequency of occurrence is calculated for. Hence near shore significant wave heights are obtained with corresponding frequencies. The statistical distribution of the near shore wave heights is determined by sorting the model results in a descending order and accumulating the corresponding frequencies. This approach allows determination of conditional return periods. For example, for the imposed univariate design return periods of 100 years for significant wave height and 30 years for water level, the joint return period for a simultaneous exceedance of both conditions can be computed as 4000 years. Hence, this methodology allows for a probabilistic design of coastal defense structures.

Storms or cold fronts: what is really responsible for the extreme waves regime in the Colombian Caribbean coastal region?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Otero, L. J.; Ortiz-Royero, J. C.; Ruiz-Merchan, J. K.; Higgins, A. E.; Henriquez, S. A.

2016-02-01

The aim of this study is to determine the contribution and importance of cold fronts and storms to extreme waves in different areas of the Colombian Caribbean in an attempt to determine the extent of the threat posed by the flood processes to which these coastal populations are exposed. Furthermore, the study wishes to establish the actions to which coastal engineering constructions should be subject. In the calculation of maritime constructions, the most important parameter is the height of the wave. For this reason, it is necessary to establish the design wave height to which a coastal engineering structure should be resistant. This wave height varies according to the return period considered. The significant height values for the areas focused on in the study were calculated in accordance with Gumbel's extreme value methodology. The methodology was evaluated using data from the reanalysis of the spectral National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) WAVEWATCH III® (WW3) model for 15 points along the 1600 km of the Colombian Caribbean coastline (continental and insular) between the years 1979 and 2009. The results demonstrated that the extreme waves caused by tropical cyclones and those caused by cold fronts have different effects along the Colombian Caribbean coast. Storms and hurricanes are of greater importance in the Guajira Peninsula (Alta Guajira). In the central area (consisting of Baja Guajira, and the cities of Santa Marta, Barranquilla, and Cartagena), the strong impact of cold fronts on extreme waves is evident. However, in the southern region of the Colombian Caribbean coast (ranging from the Gulf of Morrosquillo to the Gulf of Urabá), the extreme values of wave heights are lower than in the previously mentioned regions, despite being dominated mainly by the passage of cold fronts. Extreme waves in the San Andrés and Providencia insular region present a different dynamic from that in the continental area due to their geographic location. The wave heights in the extreme regime are similar in magnitude to those found in Alta Guajira, but the extreme waves associated with the passage of cold fronts in this region have lower return periods than those associated with the hurricane season.

Numerical investigation of freak waves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chalikov, D.

2009-04-01

Paper describes the results of more than 4,000 long-term (up to thousands of peak-wave periods) numerical simulations of nonlinear gravity surface waves performed for investigation of properties and estimation of statistics of extreme (‘freak') waves. The method of solution of 2-D potential wave's equations based on conformal mapping is applied to the simulation of wave behavior assigned by different initial conditions, defined by JONSWAP and Pierson-Moskowitz spectra. It is shown that nonlinear wave evolution sometimes results in appearance of very big waves. The shape of freak waves varies within a wide range: some of them are sharp-crested, others are asymmetric, with a strong forward inclination. Some of them can be very big, but not steep enough to create dangerous conditions for vessels (but not for fixed objects). Initial generation of extreme waves can occur merely as a result of group effects, but in some cases the largest wave suddenly starts to grow. The growth is followed sometimes by strong concentration of wave energy around a peak vertical. It is taking place in the course of a few peak wave periods. The process starts with an individual wave in a physical space without significant exchange of energy with surrounding waves. Sometimes, a crest-to-trough wave height can be as large as nearly three significant wave heights. On the average, only one third of all freak waves come to breaking, creating extreme conditions, however, if a wave height approaches the value of three significant wave heights, all of the freak waves break. The most surprising result was discovery that probability of non-dimensional freak waves (normalized by significant wave height) is actually independent of density of wave energy. It does not mean that statistics of extreme waves does not depend on wave energy. It just proves that normalization of wave heights by significant wave height is so effective, that statistics of non-dimensional extreme waves tends to be independent of wave energy. It is naive to expect that high order moments such as skewness and kurtosis can serve as predictors or even indicators of freak waves. Firstly, the above characteristics cannot be calculated with the use of spectrum usually determined with low accuracy. Such calculations are definitely unstable to a slight perturbation of spectrum. Secondly, even if spectrum is determined with high accuracy (for example calculated with the use of exact model), the high order moments cannot serve as the predictors, since they change synchronically with variations of extreme wave heights. Appearance of freak waves occurs simultaneously with increase of the local kurtosis, hence, kurtosis is simply a passive indicator of the same local geometrical properties of a wave field. This effect disappears completely, if spectrum is calculated over a very wide ensemble of waves. In this case existence of a freak wave is just disguised by other, non freak waves. Thirdly, all high order moments are dependant of spectral presentation - they increase with increasing of spectral resolution and cut-frequency. Statistics of non-dimensional waves as well as emergence of extreme waves is the innate property of a nonlinear wave field. Probability function for steep waves has been constructed. Such type function can be used for development of operational forecast of freak waves based on a standard forecast provided by the 3-d generation wave prediction model (WAVEWATCH or WAM).

Observations and estimates of wave-driven water level extremes at the Marshall Islands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Merrifield, M. A.; Becker, J. M.; Ford, M.; Yao, Y.

2014-10-01

Wave-driven extreme water levels are examined for coastlines protected by fringing reefs using field observations obtained in the Republic of the Marshall Islands. The 2% exceedence water level near the shoreline due to waves is estimated empirically for the study sites from breaking wave height at the outer reef and by combining separate contributions from setup, sea and swell, and infragravity waves, which are estimated based on breaking wave height and water level over the reef flat. Although each component exhibits a tidal dependence, they sum to yield a 2% exceedence level that does not. A hindcast based on the breaking wave height parameterization is used to assess factors leading to flooding at Roi-Namur caused by an energetic swell event during December 2008. Extreme water levels similar to December 2008 are projected to increase significantly with rising sea level as more wave and tide events combine to exceed inundation threshold levels.

A Cause and A Solution for the Underprediction of Extreme Wave Events in the Northeast Pacific

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ellenson, A. N.; Ozkan-Haller, H. T.; Thomson, J.; Brown, A. C.; Haller, M. C.

2016-12-01

Along the coastlines of Washington and Oregon, at least one 10 m wave height event occurs every year, and the strongest storms produce wave heights of 14-15 m. Extremely high wave heights can cause severe damage to coastal infrastructure and pose hazards to stakeholders along the coast. A system which can accurately predict such sea states is important for quantifying risk and aiding in preparation for extreme wave events. This study explores how to optimize forecast model performance for extreme wave events by utilizing different physics packages or wind input in four model configurations. The different wind input products consist of a reanalyzed Global Forecasting System (GFS) wind input and a Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) from the National Center of Environmental Prediction (NCEP). The physics packages are the Tolman-Chalikov (1996) ST2 physics package and the Ardhuin et al (2009) ST4 physics package associated with version 4.18 of WaveWatch III. A hindcast was previously performed to assess the wave character along the Pacific Northwest Coastline for wave energy applications. Inspection of hindcast model results showed that the operational model, which consisted of ST2 physics and GFS wind, underpredicted events where wave height exceeded six meters.The under-prediction is most severe for cases with the combined conditions of a distant cyclone and a strong coastal jet. Three such cases were re-analyzed with the four model configurations. Model output is compared with observations at NDBC buoy 46050, offshore of Newport, OR. The model configuration consisting of ST4 physics package and CFSR wind input performs best as compared with the original model, reducing significant wave height underprediction from 1.25 m to approximately 0.67 m and mean wave direction error from 30 degrees to 17 degrees for wave heights greater than 6 m. Spectral analysis shows that the ST4-CFSR model configuration best resolves southerly wave energy, and all model configurations tend to overestimate northerly wave energy. This directional distinction is important when attempting to identify which atmospheric feature has induced the extreme wave energy.

Modeled changes in extreme wave climates of the tropical Pacific over the 21st century: Implications for U.S. and U.S.-Affiliated atoll islands

USGS Publications Warehouse

Shope, J.B.; Storlazzi, Curt; Erikson, Li H.; Hegermiller, C.A.

2015-01-01

Wave heights, periods, and directions were forecast for 2081–2100 using output from four coupled atmosphere–ocean global climate models for representative concentration pathway scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Global climate model wind fields were used to drive the global WAVEWATCH-III wave model to generate hourly time-series of bulk wave parameters for 25 islands in the mid to western tropical Pacific. December–February 95th percentile extreme significant wave heights under both climate scenarios decreased by 2100 compared to 1976–2010 historical values. Trends under both scenarios were similar, with the higher-emission RCP8.5 scenario displaying a greater decrease in extreme significant wave heights than where emissions are reduced in the RCP4.5 scenario. Central equatorial Pacific Islands displayed the greatest departure from historical values; significant wave heights decreased there by as much as 0.32 m during December–February and associated wave directions rotated approximately 30° clockwise during June–August compared to hindcast data.

Extreme waves under Hurricane Ivan.

PubMed

Wang, David W; Mitchell, Douglas A; Teague, William J; Jarosz, Ewa; Hulbert, Mark S

2005-08-05

Hurricane Ivan, a category 4 storm, passed directly over six wave-tide gauges deployed by the Naval Research Laboratory on the outer continental shelf in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. Waves were observed with significant wave heights reaching 17.9 meters and maximum crest-to-trough individual wave heights of 27.7 meters (91 feet). Analysis suggests that significant wave heights likely surpassed 21 meters (69 feet) and that maximum crest-to-trough individual wave heights exceeded 40 meters (132 feet) near the eyewall.

Decadal variability of extreme wave height representing storm severity in the northeast Atlantic and North Sea since the foundation of the Royal Society.

PubMed

Santo, H; Taylor, P H; Gibson, R

2016-09-01

Long-term estimation of extreme wave height remains a key challenge because of the short duration of available wave data, and also because of the possible impact of climate variability on ocean waves. Here, we analyse storm-based statistics to obtain estimates of extreme wave height at locations in the northeast Atlantic and North Sea using the NORA10 wave hindcast (1958-2011), and use a 5 year sliding window to examine temporal variability. The decadal variability is correlated to the North Atlantic oscillation and other atmospheric modes, using a six-term predictor model incorporating the climate indices and their Hilbert transforms. This allows reconstruction of the historic extreme climate back to 1661, using a combination of known and proxy climate indices. Significant decadal variability primarily driven by the North Atlantic oscillation is observed, and this should be considered for the long-term survivability of offshore structures and marine renewable energy devices. The analysis on wave climate reconstruction reveals that the variation of the mean, 99th percentile and extreme wave climates over decadal time scales for locations close to the dominant storm tracks in the open North Atlantic are comparable, whereas the wave climates for the rest of the locations including the North Sea are rather different.

Decadal variability of extreme wave height representing storm severity in the northeast Atlantic and North Sea since the foundation of the Royal Society

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Santo, H.; Taylor, P. H.; Gibson, R.

2016-09-01

Long-term estimation of extreme wave height remains a key challenge because of the short duration of available wave data, and also because of the possible impact of climate variability on ocean waves. Here, we analyse storm-based statistics to obtain estimates of extreme wave height at locations in the northeast Atlantic and North Sea using the NORA10 wave hindcast (1958-2011), and use a 5 year sliding window to examine temporal variability. The decadal variability is correlated to the North Atlantic oscillation and other atmospheric modes, using a six-term predictor model incorporating the climate indices and their Hilbert transforms. This allows reconstruction of the historic extreme climate back to 1661, using a combination of known and proxy climate indices. Significant decadal variability primarily driven by the North Atlantic oscillation is observed, and this should be considered for the long-term survivability of offshore structures and marine renewable energy devices. The analysis on wave climate reconstruction reveals that the variation of the mean, 99th percentile and extreme wave climates over decadal time scales for locations close to the dominant storm tracks in the open North Atlantic are comparable, whereas the wave climates for the rest of the locations including the North Sea are rather different.

Space-time extreme wind waves: Observation and analysis of shapes and heights

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Benetazzo, Alvise; Barbariol, Francesco; Bergamasco, Filippo; Carniel, Sandro; Sclavo, Mauro

2016-04-01

We analyze here the temporal shape and the maximal height of extreme wind waves, which were obtained from an observational space-time sample of sea surface elevations during a mature and short-crested sea state (Benetazzo et al., 2015). Space-time wave data are processed to detect the largest waves of specific 3-D wave groups close to the apex of their development. First, maximal elevations of the groups are discussed within the framework of space-time (ST) extreme statistical models of random wave fields (Adler and Taylor, 2007; Benetazzo et al., 2015; Fedele, 2012). Results of ST models are also compared with observations and predictions of maxima based on time series of sea surface elevations. Second, the time profile of the extreme waves around the maximal crest height is analyzed and compared with the expectations of the linear (Boccotti, 1983) and second-order nonlinear extension (Arena, 2005) of the Quasi-Determinism (QD) theory. Main purpose is to verify to what extent, using the QD model results, one can estimate the shape and the crest-to-trough height of large waves in a random ST wave field. From the results presented, it emerges that, apart from the displacements around the crest apex, sea surface elevations of very high waves are greatly dispersed around a mean profile. Yet the QD model furnishes, on average, a fair prediction of the wave height of the maximal waves, especially when nonlinearities are taken into account. Moreover, the combination of ST and QD model predictions allow establishing, for a given sea condition, a framework for the representation of waves with very large crest heights. The results have also the potential to be implemented in a phase-averaged numerical wave model (see abstract EGU2016-14008 and Barbariol et al., 2015). - Adler, R.J., Taylor, J.E., 2007. Random fields and geometry. Springer, New York (USA), 448 pp. - Arena, F., 2005. On non-linear very large sea wave groups. Ocean Eng. 32, 1311-1331. - Barbariol, F., Alves, J.H.G.., Benetazzo, A., Bergamasco, F., Bertotti, L., Carniel, S., Cavaleri, L., Chao, Y.Y., Chawla, A., Ricchi, A., Sclavo, M., Tolman, H., 2015. Space-Time Wave Extremes in WAVEWATCH III: Implementation and Validation for the Adriatic Sea Case Study, in: 14th International Workshop on Wave Hindcasting and Forecasting. November, 8-13, Key West, Florida (USA). - Benetazzo, A., Barbariol, F., Bergamasco, F., Torsello, A., Carniel, S., Sclavo, M., 2015. Observation of extreme sea waves in a space-time ensemble. J. Phys. Oceanogr. 45, 2261-2275. - Boccotti, P., 1983. Some new results on statistical properties of wind waves. Appl. Ocean Res. 5, 134-140. - Fedele, F., 2012. Space-Time Extremes in Short-Crested Storm Seas. J. Phys. Oceanogr. 42, 1601-1615.

Small-scale open ocean currents have large effects on wind wave heights

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ardhuin, Fabrice; Gille, Sarah T.; Menemenlis, Dimitris; Rocha, Cesar B.; Rascle, Nicolas; Chapron, Bertrand; Gula, Jonathan; Molemaker, Jeroen

2017-06-01

Tidal currents and large-scale oceanic currents are known to modify ocean wave properties, causing extreme sea states that are a hazard to navigation. Recent advances in the understanding and modeling capability of open ocean currents have revealed the ubiquitous presence of eddies, fronts, and filaments at scales 10-100 km. Based on realistic numerical models, we show that these structures can be the main source of variability in significant wave heights at scales less than 200 km, including important variations down to 10 km. Model results are consistent with wave height variations along satellite altimeter tracks, resolved at scales larger than 50 km. The spectrum of significant wave heights is found to be of the order of 70>>2/>(g2>>2>) times the current spectrum, where >> is the spatially averaged significant wave height, >> is the energy-averaged period, and g is the gravity acceleration. This variability induced by currents has been largely overlooked in spite of its relevance for extreme wave heights and remote sensing.