North Atlantic storm driving of extreme wave heights in the North Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bell, R. J.; Gray, S. L.; Jones, O. P.

2017-04-01

The relationship between storms and extreme ocean waves in the North Sea is assessed using a long-period wave data set and storms identified in the Interim ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim). An ensemble sensitivity analysis is used to provide information on the spatial and temporal forcing from mean sea-level pressure and surface wind associated with extreme ocean wave height responses. Extreme ocean waves in the central North Sea arise due to intense extratropical cyclone winds from either the cold conveyor belt (northerly-wind events) or the warm conveyor belt (southerly-wind events). The largest wave heights are associated with northerly-wind events which tend to have stronger wind speeds and occur as the cold conveyor belt wraps rearward round the cyclone to the cold side of the warm front. The northerly-wind events provide a larger fetch to the central North Sea to aid wave growth. Southerly-wind events are associated with the warm conveyor belts of intense extratropical cyclones that develop in the left upper tropospheric jet exit region. Ensemble sensitivity analysis can provide early warning of extreme wave events by demonstrating a relationship between wave height and high pressure to the west of the British Isles for northerly-wind events 48 h prior. Southerly-wind extreme events demonstrate sensitivity to low pressure to the west of the British Isles 36 h prior.

Extreme storm activity in North Atlantic and European region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vyazilova, N.

2010-09-01

The extreme storm activity study over North Atlantic and Europe includes the analyses of extreme cyclone (track number, integral cyclonic intensity) and extreme storm (track number) during winter and summer seasons in the regions: 1) 55°N-80N, 50°W-70°E; 2) 30°N-55°N, 50°W-70°E. Extreme cyclones were selected based on cyclone centre pressure (P<=970 mbar). Extreme storms were selected from extreme cyclones based on wind velocity on 925 mbar. The Bofort scala was used for this goal. Integral cyclonic intensity (for region) includes the calculation cyclone centers number and sum of MSLP anomalies in cyclone centers. The analyses based on automated cyclone tracking algorithm, 6-hourly MSLP and wind data (u and v on 925 gPa) from the NCEP/NCAR reanalyses from January 1948 to March 2010. The comparision of mean, calculated for every ten years, had shown, that in polar region extreme cyclone and storm track number, and integral cyclonic intensity gradually increases and have maximum during last years (as for summer, as for winter season). Every ten years means for summer season are more then for winter season, as for polar, as for tropical region. Means (ten years) for tropical region are significance less then for polar region.

Contrasting the projected change in extreme extratropical cyclones in the two hemispheres

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chang, E. K. M.

2017-12-01

Extratropical cyclones form an important part of the global circulation. They are responsible for much of the high impact weather in the mid-latitudes, including heavy precipitation, strong winds, and coastal storm surges. They are also the surface manifestation of baroclinic waves that are responsible for much of the transport of momentum, heat, and moisture across the mid-latitudes. Thus how these storms will change in the future is of much general interest. In particular, how the frequency of the extreme cyclones change are of most concern, since they are the ones that cause most damages. While the projection of a poleward shift of the Southern Hemisphere storm track and cyclone activity is widely accepted, together with a small decrease in the total number of extratropical cyclones, as discussed in the 5th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR5), projected change in cyclone intensity is still rather uncertain. Several studies have suggested that cyclone intensity, in terms of absolute value of sea level pressure (SLP) minima or SLP perturbations, is projected to increase under global warming. However, other studies found no increase in wind speed around extratropical cyclones. In this study, CMIP5 multi-model projection of how the frequency of extreme cyclones in terms of near surface wind intensity may change under global warming has been examined. Results suggest significant increase in the occurrences of extreme cyclones in the Southern Hemisphere. In the Northern Hemisphere, CMIP5 models project a northeastward shift in extreme cyclone activity over the Pacific, and significant decrease over the Atlantic. Substantial differences are also found between projected changes in near surface wind intensity and wind intensity at 850 hPa, suggesting that wind change at 850 hPa is not a good proxy for change in surface wind intensity. Finally, projected changes in the large scale environment are examined to understand the dynamics behind these contrasting projected changes.

North Sea Storm Driving of Extreme Wave Heights

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bell, Ray; Gray, Suzanne; Jones, Oliver

2017-04-01

The relationship between storms and extreme ocean waves in the North sea is assessed using a long-period wave dataset and storms identified in the Interim ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim). An ensemble sensitivity analysis is used to provide information on the spatial and temporal forcing from mean sea-level pressure and surface wind associated with extreme ocean wave height responses. Extreme ocean waves in the central North Sea arise due to either the winds in the cold conveyor belt (northerly-wind events) or winds in the warm conveyor belt (southerly-wind events) of extratropical cyclones. The largest wave heights are associated with northerly-wind events which tend to have stronger wind speeds and occur as the cold conveyor belt wraps rearwards round the cyclone to the cold side of the warm front. The northerly-wind events also provide a larger fetch to the central North Sea. Southerly-wind events are associated with the warm conveyor belts of intense extratropical storms developing in the right upper-tropospheric jet exit region. There is predictability in the extreme ocean wave events up to two days before the event associated with a strengthening of a high pressure system to the west (northerly-wind events) and south-west (southerly-wind events) of the British Isles. This acts to increase the pressure gradient over the British Isles and therefore drive stronger wind speeds in the central North sea.

Joint probabilities of extreme precipitation and wind gusts in Germany

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

von Waldow, H.; Martius, O.

2012-04-01

Extreme meteorological events such as storms, heavy rain, floods, droughts and heat waves can have devastating consequences for human health, infrastructure and ecosystems. Concomitantly occurring extreme events might interact synergistically to produce a particularly hazardous impact. The joint occurrence of droughts and heat waves, for example, can have a very different impact on human health and ecosystems both in quantity and quality, than just one of the two extreme events. The co-occurrence of certain types of extreme events is plausible from physical and dynamical considerations, for example heavy precipitation and high wind speeds in the pathway of strong extratropical cyclones. The winter storm Kyrill not only caused wind gust speeds well in excess of 30 m/s across Europe, but also brought 24 h precipitation sums greater than the mean January accumulations in some regions. However, the existence of such compound risks is currently not accounted for by insurance companies, who assume independence of extreme weather events to calculate their premiums. While there are established statistical methods to model the extremes of univariate meteorological variables, the modelling of multidimensional extremes calls for an approach that is tailored to the specific problem at hand. A first step involves defining extreme bivariate wind/precipitation events. Because precipitation and wind gusts caused by the same cyclone or convective cell do not occur at exactly the same location and at the same time, it is necessary to find a sound definition of "extreme compound event" for this case. We present a data driven method to choose appropriate time and space intervals that define "concomitance" for wind and precipitation extremes. Based on station data of wind speed and gridded precipitation data, we arrive at time and space intervals that compare well with the typical time and space scales of extratropical cyclones, i.e. a maximum time lag of 1 day and a maximum distance of about 300 km between associated wind and rain events. After modelling extreme precipitation and wind separately, we explore the practicability of characterising their joint distribution using a bivariate threshold excess model. In particular, we present different dependence measures and report about the computational feasibility and available computer codes.

Quantifying uncertainties in wind energy assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Patlakas, Platon; Galanis, George; Kallos, George

2015-04-01

The constant rise of wind energy production and the subsequent penetration in global energy markets during the last decades resulted in new sites selection with various types of problems. Such problems arise due to the variability and the uncertainty of wind speed. The study of the wind speed distribution lower and upper tail may support the quantification of these uncertainties. Such approaches focused on extreme wind conditions or periods below the energy production threshold are necessary for a better management of operations. Towards this direction, different methodologies are presented for the credible evaluation of potential non-frequent/extreme values for these environmental conditions. The approaches used, take into consideration the structural design of the wind turbines according to their lifespan, the turbine failures, the time needed for repairing as well as the energy production distribution. In this work, a multi-parametric approach for studying extreme wind speed values will be discussed based on tools of Extreme Value Theory. In particular, the study is focused on extreme wind speed return periods and the persistence of no energy production based on a weather modeling system/hind cast/10-year dataset. More specifically, two methods (Annual Maxima and Peaks Over Threshold) were used for the estimation of extreme wind speeds and their recurrence intervals. Additionally, two different methodologies (intensity given duration and duration given intensity, both based on Annual Maxima method) were implied to calculate the extreme events duration, combined with their intensity as well as the event frequency. The obtained results prove that the proposed approaches converge, at least on the main findings, for each case. It is also remarkable that, despite the moderate wind speed climate of the area, several consequent days of no energy production are observed.

Extreme storm surge and wind wave climate scenario simulations at the Venetian littoral

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lionello, P.; Galati, M. B.; Elvini, E.

Scenario climate projections for extreme marine storms producing storm surges and wind waves are very important for the northern flat coast of the Adriatic Sea, where the area at risk includes a unique cultural and environmental heritage, and important economic activities. This study uses a shallow water model and a spectral wave model for computing the storm surge and the wind wave field, respectively, from the sea level pressure and wind fields that have been computed by the RegCM regional climate model. Simulations cover the period 1961-1990 for the present climate (control simulations) and the period 2071-2100 for the A2 and B2 scenarios. Generalized Extreme Value analysis is used for estimating values for the 10 and 100 year return times. The adequacy of these modeling tools for a reliable estimation of the climate change signal, without needing further downscaling is shown. However, this study has mainly a methodological value, because issues such as interdecadal variability and intermodel variability cannot be addressed, since the analysis is based on single model 30-year long simulations. The control simulation looks reasonably accurate for extreme value analysis, though it overestimates/underestimates the frequency of high/low surge and wind wave events with respect to observations. Scenario simulations suggest higher frequency of intense storms for the B2 scenario, but not for the A2. Likely, these differences are not the effect of climate change, but of climate multidecadal variability. Extreme storms are stronger in future scenarios, but differences are not statistically significant. Therefore this study does not provide convincing evidence for more stormy conditions in future scenarios.

Temporal Wind Pairs for Space Launch Vehicle Capability Assessment and Risk Mitigation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Decker, Ryan K.; Barbre, Robert E., Jr.

2015-01-01

Space launch vehicles incorporate upper-level wind assessments to determine wind effects on the vehicle and for a commit to launch decision. These assessments make use of wind profiles measured hours prior to launch and may not represent the actual wind the vehicle will fly through. Uncertainty in the winds over the time period between the assessment and launch introduces uncertainty in assessment of vehicle controllability and structural integrity that must be accounted for to ensure launch safety. Temporal wind pairs are used in engineering development of allowances to mitigate uncertainty. Five sets of temporal wind pairs at various times (0.75, 1.5, 2, 3 and 4-hrs) at the United States Air Force Eastern Range and Western Range, as well as the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Wallops Flight Facility are developed for use in upper-level wind assessments on vehicle performance. Historical databases are compiled from balloon-based and vertically pointing Doppler radar wind profiler systems. Various automated and manual quality control procedures are used to remove unacceptable profiles. Statistical analyses on the resultant wind pairs from each site are performed to determine if the observed extreme wind changes in the sample pairs are representative of extreme temporal wind change. Wind change samples in the Eastern Range and Western Range databases characterize extreme wind change. However, the small sample sizes in the Wallops Flight Facility databases yield low confidence that the sample population characterizes extreme wind change that could occur.

Temporal Wind Pairs for Space Launch Vehicle Capability Assessment and Risk Mitigation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Decker, Ryan K.; Barbre, Robert E., Jr.

2014-01-01

Space launch vehicles incorporate upper-level wind assessments to determine wind effects on the vehicle and for a commit to launch decision. These assessments make use of wind profiles measured hours prior to launch and may not represent the actual wind the vehicle will fly through. Uncertainty in the winds over the time period between the assessment and launch introduces uncertainty in assessment of vehicle controllability and structural integrity that must be accounted for to ensure launch safety. Temporal wind pairs are used in engineering development of allowances to mitigate uncertainty. Five sets of temporal wind pairs at various times (0.75, 1.5, 2, 3 and 4-hrs) at the United States Air Force Eastern Range and Western Range, as well as the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Wallops Flight Facility are developed for use in upper-level wind assessments on vehicle performance. Historical databases are compiled from balloon-based and vertically pointing Doppler radar wind profiler systems. Various automated and manual quality control procedures are used to remove unacceptable profiles. Statistical analyses on the resultant wind pairs from each site are performed to determine if the observed extreme wind changes in the sample pairs are representative of extreme temporal wind change. Wind change samples in the Eastern Range and Western Range databases characterize extreme wind change. However, the small sample sizes in the Wallops Flight Facility databases yield low confidence that the sample population characterizes extreme wind change that could occur.

Normal and Extreme Wind Conditions for Power at Coastal Locations in China

PubMed Central

Gao, Meng; Ning, Jicai; Wu, Xiaoqing

2015-01-01

In this paper, the normal and extreme wind conditions for power at 12 coastal locations along China’s coastline were investigated. For this purpose, the daily meteorological data measured at the standard 10-m height above ground for periods of 40–62 years are statistically analyzed. The East Asian Monsoon that affects almost China’s entire coastal region is considered as the leading factor determining wind energy resources. For most stations, the mean wind speed is higher in winter and lower in summer. Meanwhile, the wind direction analysis indicates that the prevalent winds in summer are southerly, while those in winter are northerly. The air densities at different coastal locations differ significantly, resulting in the difference in wind power density. The Weibull and lognormal distributions are applied to fit the yearly wind speeds. The lognormal distribution performs better than the Weibull distribution at 8 coastal stations according to two judgement criteria, the Kolmogorov–Smirnov test and absolute error (AE). Regarding the annual maximum extreme wind speed, the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution performs better than the commonly-used Gumbel distribution. At these southeastern coastal locations, strong winds usually occur in typhoon season. These 4 coastal provinces, that is, Guangdong, Fujian, Hainan, and Zhejiang, which have abundant wind resources, are also prone to typhoon disasters. PMID:26313256

Normal and Extreme Wind Conditions for Power at Coastal Locations in China.

PubMed

Gao, Meng; Ning, Jicai; Wu, Xiaoqing

2015-01-01

In this paper, the normal and extreme wind conditions for power at 12 coastal locations along China's coastline were investigated. For this purpose, the daily meteorological data measured at the standard 10-m height above ground for periods of 40-62 years are statistically analyzed. The East Asian Monsoon that affects almost China's entire coastal region is considered as the leading factor determining wind energy resources. For most stations, the mean wind speed is higher in winter and lower in summer. Meanwhile, the wind direction analysis indicates that the prevalent winds in summer are southerly, while those in winter are northerly. The air densities at different coastal locations differ significantly, resulting in the difference in wind power density. The Weibull and lognormal distributions are applied to fit the yearly wind speeds. The lognormal distribution performs better than the Weibull distribution at 8 coastal stations according to two judgement criteria, the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test and absolute error (AE). Regarding the annual maximum extreme wind speed, the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution performs better than the commonly-used Gumbel distribution. At these southeastern coastal locations, strong winds usually occur in typhoon season. These 4 coastal provinces, that is, Guangdong, Fujian, Hainan, and Zhejiang, which have abundant wind resources, are also prone to typhoon disasters.

Impact of tropical cyclones on modeled extreme wind-wave climate

DOE PAGES

Timmermans, Ben; Stone, Daithi; Wehner, Michael; ...

2017-02-16

Here, the effect of forcing wind resolution on the extremes of global wind-wave climate are investigated in numerical simulations. Forcing winds from the Community Atmosphere Model at horizontal resolutions of ~1.0° and ~0.25° are used to drive Wavewatch III. Differences in extreme wave height are found to manifest most strongly in tropical cyclone (TC) regions, emphasizing the need for high-resolution forcing in those areas. Comparison with observations typically show improvement in performance with increased forcing resolution, with a strong influence in the tail of the distribution, although simulated extremes can exceed observations. A simulation for the end of the 21stmore » century under a RCP 8.5 type emission scenario suggests further increases in extreme wave height in TC regions.« less

Impact of tropical cyclones on modeled extreme wind-wave climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Timmermans, Ben; Stone, Dáithí; Wehner, Michael; Krishnan, Harinarayan

2017-02-01

The effect of forcing wind resolution on the extremes of global wind-wave climate are investigated in numerical simulations. Forcing winds from the Community Atmosphere Model at horizontal resolutions of ˜1.0° and ˜0.25° are used to drive Wavewatch III. Differences in extreme wave height are found to manifest most strongly in tropical cyclone (TC) regions, emphasizing the need for high-resolution forcing in those areas. Comparison with observations typically show improvement in performance with increased forcing resolution, with a strong influence in the tail of the distribution, although simulated extremes can exceed observations. A simulation for the end of the 21st century under a RCP 8.5 type emission scenario suggests further increases in extreme wave height in TC regions.

BAL QSOs AND EXTREME UFOs: THE EDDINGTON CONNECTION

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zubovas, Kastytis; King, Andrew, E-mail: kastytis.zubovas@ftmc.lt

We suggest a common physical origin connecting the fast, highly ionized winds (UFOs) seen in nearby active galactic nuclei (AGNs), and the slower and less ionized winds of broad absorption line (BAL) QSOs. The primary difference is the mass-loss rate in the wind, which is ultimately determined by the rate at which mass is fed toward the central supermassive black hole (SMBH) on large scales. This is below the Eddington accretion rate in most UFOs, and slightly super-Eddington in extreme UFOs such as PG1211+143, but ranges up to {approx}10-50 times this in BAL QSOs. For UFOs this implies black holemore » accretion rates and wind mass-loss rates which are at most comparable to Eddington, giving fast, highly ionized winds. In contrast, BAL QSO black holes have mildly super-Eddington accretion rates, and drive winds whose mass-loss rates are significantly super-Eddington, and so are slower and less ionized. This picture correctly predicts the velocities and ionization states of the observed winds, including the recently discovered one in SDSS J1106+1939. We suggest that luminous AGNs may evolve through a sequence from BAL QSO through LoBAL to UFO-producing Seyfert or quasar as their Eddington factors drop during the decay of a bright accretion event. LoBALs correspond to a short-lived stage in which the AGN radiation pressure largely evacuates the ionization cone, but before the large-scale accretion rate has dropped to the Eddington value. We show that sub-Eddington wind rates would produce an M-{sigma} relation lying above that observed. We conclude that significant SMBH mass growth must occur in super-Eddington phases, either as BAL QSOs, extreme UFOs, or obscured from direct observation.« less

BAL QSOs and Extreme UFOs: The Eddington Connection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zubovas, Kastytis; King, Andrew

2013-05-01

We suggest a common physical origin connecting the fast, highly ionized winds (UFOs) seen in nearby active galactic nuclei (AGNs), and the slower and less ionized winds of broad absorption line (BAL) QSOs. The primary difference is the mass-loss rate in the wind, which is ultimately determined by the rate at which mass is fed toward the central supermassive black hole (SMBH) on large scales. This is below the Eddington accretion rate in most UFOs, and slightly super-Eddington in extreme UFOs such as PG1211+143, but ranges up to ~10-50 times this in BAL QSOs. For UFOs this implies black hole accretion rates and wind mass-loss rates which are at most comparable to Eddington, giving fast, highly ionized winds. In contrast, BAL QSO black holes have mildly super-Eddington accretion rates, and drive winds whose mass-loss rates are significantly super-Eddington, and so are slower and less ionized. This picture correctly predicts the velocities and ionization states of the observed winds, including the recently discovered one in SDSS J1106+1939. We suggest that luminous AGNs may evolve through a sequence from BAL QSO through LoBAL to UFO-producing Seyfert or quasar as their Eddington factors drop during the decay of a bright accretion event. LoBALs correspond to a short-lived stage in which the AGN radiation pressure largely evacuates the ionization cone, but before the large-scale accretion rate has dropped to the Eddington value. We show that sub-Eddington wind rates would produce an M-σ relation lying above that observed. We conclude that significant SMBH mass growth must occur in super-Eddington phases, either as BAL QSOs, extreme UFOs, or obscured from direct observation.

Characterization of the Martian magnetic topology response to extreme solar transient events with MGS data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, S.; Curry, S.; Mitchell, D. L.; Luhmann, J. G.; Lillis, R. J.; Dong, C.

2017-12-01

Characterizing how the solar cycle affects the physics of the Mars-solar wind interaction can improve our understanding of Mars' atmospheric evolution and the plasma environment at Mars. In particular, solar transient events such as Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections (ICMEs) and Stream Interaction Regions (SIRs) significantly change the solar-wind interaction, including the magnetic topology and ion acceleration. However, both the Mars Express and Mars Atmosphere Volatile EvolutioN (MAVEN) missions have encountered relatively few extreme solar transient events due to the recent low solar activity (2004-2017). In contrast, Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) was operating during a relatively active solar maximum (1999-2003). Based on new results from MAVEN, this study reanalyzes MGS data to better understand how the Martian plasma environment responds to extreme solar events. In particular, we aim to investigate how the magnetic topology during these extreme events differs from the topology during quiet times. We conduct orbit comparisons of the magnetic topology inferred from MGS electron pitch angle distributions during quiet periods and extreme events to determine how the open and closed field patterns respond to extreme events.

Drivers and seasonal predictability of extreme wind speeds in the ECMWF System 4 and a statistical model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walz, M. A.; Donat, M.; Leckebusch, G. C.

2017-12-01

As extreme wind speeds are responsible for large socio-economic losses in Europe, a skillful prediction would be of great benefit for disaster prevention as well as for the actuarial community. Here we evaluate patterns of large-scale atmospheric variability and the seasonal predictability of extreme wind speeds (e.g. >95th percentile) in the European domain in the dynamical seasonal forecast system ECMWF System 4, and compare to the predictability based on a statistical prediction model. The dominant patterns of atmospheric variability show distinct differences between reanalysis and ECMWF System 4, with most patterns in System 4 extended downstream in comparison to ERA-Interim. The dissimilar manifestations of the patterns within the two models lead to substantially different drivers associated with the occurrence of extreme winds in the respective model. While the ECMWF System 4 is shown to provide some predictive power over Scandinavia and the eastern Atlantic, only very few grid cells in the European domain have significant correlations for extreme wind speeds in System 4 compared to ERA-Interim. In contrast, a statistical model predicts extreme wind speeds during boreal winter in better agreement with the observations. Our results suggest that System 4 does not seem to capture the potential predictability of extreme winds that exists in the real world, and therefore fails to provide reliable seasonal predictions for lead months 2-4. This is likely related to the unrealistic representation of large-scale patterns of atmospheric variability. Hence our study points to potential improvements of dynamical prediction skill by improving the simulation of large-scale atmospheric dynamics.

Low-Pressure Capability of NASA Glenn's 10- by 10-Foot Supersonic Wind Tunnel Expanded

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Roeder, James W.

2004-01-01

Extremely low dynamic pressure Q conditions are desired for space-related research including the testing of parachute designs and other decelerator concepts for future vehicles landing on Mars. Therefore, the low-pressure operating capability of the Abe Silverstein 10- by 10-foot Supersonic Wind Tunnel (10 10 SWT) at NASA Glenn Research Center was recently increased. Successful checkout tests performed in the fall of 2002 showed significantly reduced minimum operating pressures in the wind tunnel.

Extreme pressure differences at 0900 NZST and winds across New Zealand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salinger, M. James; Griffiths, Georgina M.; Gosai, Ashmita

2005-07-01

Trends in extremes in station daily sea-level pressure differences at 0900 NZST are examined, and extreme daily wind gusts, across New Zealand, since the 1960s. Annual time series were examined (with indices of magnitude and frequency over threshold percentiles) from the daily indices selected. These follow from earlier indices of normalized monthly mean sea-level pressure differences between station pairs, except the daily indices are not normalized. The frequency statistics quantify the number of extreme zonal (westerly and easterly), or extreme meridional (southerly or northerly), pressure gradient events. The frequency and magnitude of extreme westerly episodes has increased slightly over New Zealand, with a significant increase in the westerly extremes to the south of New Zealand. In contrast, the magnitude and frequency of easterly extremes has decreased over New Zealand, but increased to the south, with some trends weakly significant. The frequency and magnitude of daily southerly extremes has decreased significantly in the region.Extreme daily wind gust events at key climate stations in New Zealand and at Hobart, Australia, are highly likely to be associated with an extreme daily pressure difference. The converse was less likely to hold: extreme wind gusts were not always observed on days with extreme daily pressure difference, probably due to the strong influence that topography has on localized station winds. Significant correlations exist between the frequency indices and both annual-average mean sea-level pressures around the Australasian region and annual-average sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the Southern Hemisphere. These correlations are generally stronger for indices of extreme westerly or extreme southerly airflows. Annual-average pressures in the Tasman Sea or Southern Ocean are highly correlated to zonal indices (frequency of extreme westerlies). SST anomalies in the NINO3 region or on either side of the South Island are significantly correlated with the frequency of extreme westerly airflows.

Simulation of Extreme Surface Winds by Regional Climate Models in the NARCCAP Archive

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hatteberg, R.; Takle, E. S.

2011-12-01

Surface winds play a significant role in many natural processes as well as providing a very important ecological service for many human activities. Surface winds ventilate pollutants and heat from our cities, contribute to pollination for our crops, and regulate the fluxes of heat, moisture, and carbon dioxide from the earth's surface. Many environmental models such as biogeochemical models, crop models, lake models, pollutant transport models, etc., use surface winds as a key variable. Studies of the impacts of climate change and climate variability on a wide range of natural systems and coupled human-natural systems frequently need information on how surface wind speeds will change as greenhouse gas concentrations in the earth's atmosphere change. We have studied the characteristics of extreme winds - both high winds and low winds - created by regional climate models (RCMs) in the NARCCAP archives. We evaluated the capabilities of five RCMs forced by NCEP reanalysis data as well as global climate model (GCM) data for contemporary and future scenario climates to capture the observed statistical distribution of surface winds, both high-wind events and low-wind conditions. Our domain is limited to the Midwest (37°N to 49°N, -82°W to -101°W) with the Great Lakes masked out, which eliminates orographic effects that may contribute to regional circulations. The majority of this study focuses on the warm seasonal in order to examine derechos on the extreme high end and air pollution and plant processes on the low wind speed end. To examine extreme high winds we focus on derechos, which are long-lasting convectively driven extreme wind events that frequently leave a swath of damage extending across multiple states. These events are unusual in that, despite their relatively small spatial scale, they can persist for hours or even days, drawing energy from well-organized larger mesoscale or synoptic scale processes. We examine the ability of NARCCAP RCMs to reproduce these isolated extreme events by assessing their existence, location, magnitude, synoptic linkage, initiation time and duration as compared to the record of observations of derechos in the Midwest and Northeast US. We find that RCMs do reproduce features with close resemblance to derechos although their magnitudes are considerably below those observed (which may be expected given the 50-km grid spacing of the RCM models). Extreme low wind speeds in summer are frequently associated with stagnation conditions leading to high air pollution events in major cities. Low winds also lead to reduced evapotranspiration by crops, which can impact phenological processes (e.g. pollination and seed fertilization, carbon uptake by plants). We evaluate whether RCMs can simulate climatic distributions of low-wind conditions in the northern US. Results show differences among models in their ability to reproduce observed characteristics of low summer-time winds. Only one model reproduces observed high frequency of calm night-time surface winds in summer, which suggests a need to improve model capabilities for simulating extreme stagnation events.

Coupling of wave and circulation models in coastal-ocean predicting systems: A case study for the German Bight

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Staneva, Joanna; Wahle, Kathrin

2015-04-01

This study addresses the coupling between wind wave and circulation models on the example of the German Bight and its coastal area called the Wadden Sea (the area between the barrier islands and the coast). This topic reflects the increased interest in operational oceanography to reduce prediction errors of state estimates at coastal scales. The uncertainties in most of the presently used models result from the nonlinear feedback between strong tidal currents and wind-waves, which can no longer be ignored, in particular in the coastal zone where its role seems to be dominant. A nested modelling system is used in the Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht to producing reliable now- and short-term forecasts of ocean state variables, including wind waves and hydrodynamics. In this study we present analysis of wave and hydrographic observations, as well as the results of numerical simulations. The data base includes ADCP observations and continuous measurements from data stations. The individual and collective role of wind, waves and tidal forcing are quantified. The performance of the forecasting system is illustrated for the cases of several extreme events. Effects of ocean waves on coastal circulation and SST simulations are investigated considering wave-dependent stress and wave breaking parameterization during extreme events, e.g. hurricane Xavier in December, 2013. Also the effect which the circulation exerts on the wind waves is tested for the coastal areas using different parameterizations. The improved skill resulting from the new developments in the forecasting system, in particular during extreme events, justifies further enhancements of the coastal pre-operational system for the North Sea and German Bight.

Gaussian vs non-Gaussian turbulence: impact on wind turbine loads

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berg, J.; Mann, J.; Natarajan, A.; Patton, E. G.

2014-12-01

In wind energy applications the turbulent velocity field of the Atmospheric Boundary Layer (ABL) is often characterised by Gaussian probability density functions. When estimating the dynamical loads on wind turbines this has been the rule more than anything else. From numerous studies in the laboratory, in Direct Numerical Simulations, and from in-situ measurements of the ABL we know, however, that turbulence is not purely Gaussian: the smallest and fastest scales often exhibit extreme behaviour characterised by strong non-Gaussian statistics. In this contribution we want to investigate whether these non-Gaussian effects are important when determining wind turbine loads, and hence of utmost importance to the design criteria and lifetime of a wind turbine. We devise a method based on Principal Orthogonal Decomposition where non-Gaussian velocity fields generated by high-resolution pseudo-spectral Large-Eddy Simulation (LES) of the ABL are transformed so that they maintain the exact same second-order statistics including variations of the statistics with height, but are otherwise Gaussian. In that way we can investigate in isolation the question whether it is important for wind turbine loads to include non-Gaussian properties of atmospheric turbulence. As an illustration the Figure show both a non-Gaussian velocity field (left) from our LES, and its transformed Gaussian Counterpart (right). Whereas the horizontal velocity components (top) look close to identical, the vertical components (bottom) are not: the non-Gaussian case is much more fluid-like (like in a sketch by Michelangelo). The question is then: Does the wind turbine see this? Using the load simulation software HAWC2 with both the non-Gaussian and newly constructed Gaussian fields, respectively, we show that the Fatigue loads and most of the Extreme loads are unaltered when using non-Gaussian velocity fields. The turbine thus acts like a low-pass filter which average out the non-Gaussian behaviour on time scales close to and faster than the revolution time of the turbine. For a few of the Extreme load estimations there is, on the other hand, a tendency that non-Gaussian effects increase the overall dynamical load, and hence can be of importance in wind energy load estimations.

Downscaling wind and wavefields for 21st century coastal flood hazard projections in a region of complex terrain

USGS Publications Warehouse

O'Neill, Andrea; Erikson, Li; Barnard, Patrick

2017-01-01

While global climate models (GCMs) provide useful projections of near-surface wind vectors into the 21st century, resolution is not sufficient enough for use in regional wave modeling. Statistically downscaled GCM projections from Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogues provide daily averaged near-surface winds at an appropriate spatial resolution for wave modeling within the orographically complex region of San Francisco Bay, but greater resolution in time is needed to capture the peak of storm events. Short-duration high wind speeds, on the order of hours, are usually excluded in statistically downscaled climate models and are of key importance in wave and subsequent coastal flood modeling. Here we present a temporal downscaling approach, similar to constructed analogues, for near-surface winds suitable for use in local wave models and evaluate changes in wind and wave conditions for the 21st century. Reconstructed hindcast winds (1975–2004) recreate important extreme wind values within San Francisco Bay. A computationally efficient method for simulating wave heights over long time periods was used to screen for extreme events. Wave hindcasts show resultant maximum wave heights of 2.2 m possible within the Bay. Changes in extreme over-water wind speeds suggest contrasting trends within the different regions of San Francisco Bay, but 21th century projections show little change in the overall magnitude of extreme winds and locally generated waves.

Selected highlights from the Extreme Ultraviolet Explorer

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bowyer, S.; Malina, R. F.

1995-01-01

We present a few scientific highlights from the Extreme Ultraviolet Explorer (EUVE) all-sky and deep surveys, from the EUVE Righ Angle Program, and from the EUVE Guest Observer Program. The First EUVE Source Catalog includes 410 extreme ultraviolet (EUV) sources detected in the initial processing of the EUVE all-sky data. A program of optical identification indicates that counterparts include cool star coronae, flare stars, hot white dwarfs, central stars of planetary nebulae, B star photospheres and winds, an X-ray binary, extragalactic objects (active galactic nuclei, BL Lacertae), solar system objects (Moon, Mars, Io,), supernova remnants, and two novae.

Benefits of an ultra large and multiresolution ensemble for estimating available wind power

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berndt, Jonas; Hoppe, Charlotte; Elbern, Hendrik

2016-04-01

In this study we investigate the benefits of an ultra large ensemble with up to 1000 members including multiple nesting with a target horizontal resolution of 1 km. The ensemble shall be used as a basis to detect events of extreme errors in wind power forecasting. Forecast value is the wind vector at wind turbine hub height (~ 100 m) in the short range (1 to 24 hour). Current wind power forecast systems rest already on NWP ensemble models. However, only calibrated ensembles from meteorological institutions serve as input so far, with limited spatial resolution (˜10 - 80 km) and member number (˜ 50). Perturbations related to the specific merits of wind power production are yet missing. Thus, single extreme error events which are not detected by such ensemble power forecasts occur infrequently. The numerical forecast model used in this study is the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF). Model uncertainties are represented by stochastic parametrization of sub-grid processes via stochastically perturbed parametrization tendencies and in conjunction via the complementary stochastic kinetic-energy backscatter scheme already provided by WRF. We perform continuous ensemble updates by comparing each ensemble member with available observations using a sequential importance resampling filter to improve the model accuracy while maintaining ensemble spread. Additionally, we use different ensemble systems from global models (ECMWF and GFS) as input and boundary conditions to capture different synoptic conditions. Critical weather situations which are connected to extreme error events are located and corresponding perturbation techniques are applied. The demanding computational effort is overcome by utilising the supercomputer JUQUEEN at the Forschungszentrum Juelich.

Stationarity of extreme bursts in the solar wind

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moloney, N. R.; Davidsen, J.

2014-05-01

Recent results have suggested that the statistics of bursts in the solar wind vary with solar cycle. Here, we show that this variation is basically absent if one considers extreme bursts. These are defined as threshold-exceeding events over the range of high thresholds for which their number decays as a power law. In particular, we find that the distribution of duration times and energies of extreme bursts in the solar wind ɛ parameter and similar observables are independent of the solar cycle and in this sense stationary, and show robust asymptotic power laws with exponents that are independent of the specific threshold. This is consistent with what has been observed for solar flares and, thus, provides evidence in favor of a link between solar flares and extreme bursts in the solar wind.

The Sinuosity of Atmospheric Circulation over North America and its Relationship to Arctic Climate Change and Extreme Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vavrus, S. J.; Wang, F.; Martin, J. E.; Francis, J. A.

2015-12-01

Recent research has suggested a relationship between mid-latitude weather and Arctic amplification (AA) of global climate change via a slower and wavier extratropical circulation inducing more extreme events. To test this hypothesis and to quantify the waviness of the extratropical flow, we apply a novel application of the geomorphological concept of sinuosity (SIN) over greater North America. SIN is defined as the ratio of the curvilinear length of a geopotential height contour to the perimeter of its equivalent latitude, where the contour and the equivalent latitude enclose the same area. We use 500 hPa daily heights from reanalysis and model simulations to calculate past and future SIN. The circulation exhibits a distinct annual cycle of maximum SIN (waviness) in summer and a minimum in winter, inversely related to the annual cycle of zonal wind speed. Positive trends in SIN have emerged in recent decades during winter and summer at several latitude bands, generally collocated with negative trends in zonal wind speeds. High values of SIN coincide with many prominent extreme-weather events, including Superstorm Sandy. RCP8.5 simulations (2006-2100) project a dipole pattern of zonal wind changes that varies seasonally. In winter, AA causes inflated heights over the Arctic relative to mid-latitudes and an associated weakening (strengthening) of the westerlies north (south) of 40N. The AA signal in summer is strongest over upper-latitude land, promoting localized atmospheric ridging aloft with lighter westerlies to the south and stronger zonal winds to the north. The changes in wind speeds in both seasons are inversely correlated with SIN, indicating a wavier circulation where the flow weakens. In summer the lighter winds over much of the U. S. resemble circulation anomalies observed during extreme summer heat and drought. Such changes may be linked to enhanced heating of upper-latitude land surfaces caused by earlier snow melt during spring-summer.

Operation of Power Grids with High Penetration of Wind Power

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Al-Awami, Ali Taleb

The integration of wind power into the power grid poses many challenges due to its highly uncertain nature. This dissertation involves two main components related to the operation of power grids with high penetration of wind energy: wind-thermal stochastic dispatch and wind-thermal coordinated bidding in short-term electricity markets. In the first part, a stochastic dispatch (SD) algorithm is proposed that takes into account the stochastic nature of the wind power output. The uncertainty associated with wind power output given the forecast is characterized using conditional probability density functions (CPDF). Several functions are examined to characterize wind uncertainty including Beta, Weibull, Extreme Value, Generalized Extreme Value, and Mixed Gaussian distributions. The unique characteristics of the Mixed Gaussian distribution are then utilized to facilitate the speed of convergence of the SD algorithm. A case study is carried out to evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm. Then, the SD algorithm is extended to simultaneously optimize the system operating costs and emissions. A modified multi-objective particle swarm optimization algorithm is suggested to identify the Pareto-optimal solutions defined by the two conflicting objectives. A sensitivity analysis is carried out to study the effect of changing load level and imbalance cost factors on the Pareto front. In the second part of this dissertation, coordinated trading of wind and thermal energy is proposed to mitigate risks due to those uncertainties. The problem of wind-thermal coordinated trading is formulated as a mixed-integer stochastic linear program. The objective is to obtain the optimal tradeoff bidding strategy that maximizes the total expected profits while controlling trading risks. For risk control, a weighted term of the conditional value at risk (CVaR) is included in the objective function. The CVaR aims to maximize the expected profits of the least profitable scenarios, thus improving trading risk control. A case study comparing coordinated with uncoordinated bidding strategies depending on the trader's risk attitude is included. Simulation results show that coordinated bidding can improve the expected profits while significantly improving the CVaR.

Early Detection of Lightning Caused Wildfires and Prediction of Wildfire Behavior through Energy Distribution, Atmospherics, Geophysics, the Sun's Azimuth, and Topology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Giesige, C.; Nava, E.

2016-12-01

In the midst of a changing climate we have seen extremes in weather events: lightning, wildfires, hurricanes, tornadoes, and earthquakes. All of these ride on an imbalance of magnetic and electrical distribution about the earth including what goes on from the atmospheric and geophysic levels. There is relevance to the important role the sun plays in developing and feeding of the extreme weather events along with the sun's role helping to create a separation of charges on earth furthering climactic extremes. Focusing attention in North America and on how the sun, atmospheric and geophysic winds come together producing lightning events, there are connections between energy distribution in the environment, lightning caused wildfires, and extreme wildfire behavior. Lightning caused wildfires and extreme fire behavior have become enhanced with the changing climate conditions. Even with strong developments in wildfire science, there remains a lack in full understanding of connections that create a lightning caused wildfire event and lack of monitoring advancements in predicting extreme fire behavior. Several connections have been made in our research allowing us to connect multiple facets of the environment in regards to electric and magnetic influences on wildfires. Among them include: irradiance, winds, pressure systems, humidity, and topology. The connections can be made to develop better detection systems of wildfires, establish with more accuracy areas of highest risk for wildfire and extreme wildfire behavior, and prediction of wildfire behavior. A platform found within the environment can also lead to further understanding and monitoring of other extreme weather events in the future.

Effects of anisotropic thermal conduction on wind properties in hot accretion flow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bu, De-Fu; Wu, Mao-Chun; Yuan, Ye-Fei

2016-06-01

Previous works have clearly shown the existence of winds from black hole hot accretion flow and investigated their detailed properties. In extremely low accretion rate systems, the collisional mean-free path of electrons is large compared with the length-scale of the system, thus thermal conduction is dynamically important. When the magnetic field is present, the thermal conduction is anisotropic and energy transport is along magnetic field lines. In this paper, we study the effects of anisotropic thermal conduction on the wind production in hot accretion flows by performing two-dimensional magnetohydrodynamic simulations. We find that thermal conduction has only moderate effects on the mass flux of wind. But the energy flux of wind can be increased by a factor of ˜10 due to the increase of wind velocity when thermal conduction is included. The increase of wind velocity is because of the increase of driving forces (e.g. gas pressure gradient force and centrifugal force) when thermal conduction is included. This result demonstrates that thermal conduction plays an important role in determining the properties of wind.

On Wind Forces in the Forest-Edge Region During Extreme-Gust Passages and Their Implications for Damage Patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gromke, Christof; Ruck, Bodo

2018-03-01

A damage pattern that is occasionally found after a period of strong winds shows an area of damaged trees inside a forest stand behind an intact stripe of trees directly at the windward edge. In an effort to understand the mechanism leading to this damage pattern, wind loading in the forest-edge region during passages of extreme gusts with different characteristics are investigated using a scaled forest model in the wind tunnel. The interaction of a transient extreme gust with the stationary atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) as a background flow at the forest edge leads to the formation of a vortex at the top of the canopy. This vortex intensifies when travelling downstream and subsequently deflects high-momentum air from above the canopy downwards resulting in increased wind loading on the tree crowns. Under such conditions, the decrease in wind loading in the streamwise direction can be relatively weak compared to stationary ABL approach flows. The resistance of trees with streamwise distance from the forest edge, however, is the result of adaptive growth to wind loading under stationary flow conditions and shows a rapid decline within two to three tree heights behind the windward edge. For some of the extreme gusts realized, an exceedance of the wind loading over the resistance of the trees is found at approximately three tree heights behind the forest edge, suggesting that the damage pattern described above can be caused by the interaction of a transient extreme gust with the stationary ABL flow.

Gusts and Shear in an Idealized LES-modeled Hurricane

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Worsnop, R.; Lundquist, J. K.; Bryan, G. H.; Damiani, R.; Musial, W.

2016-12-01

Tropical cyclone winds can cause extreme loading and damage to coastal structures such as buildings and energy infrastructure. Offshore wind energy development is underway along the US East Coast where hurricanes pose a substantial risk. Understanding wind gusts, gust factor, shear, and veer in the hurricane boundary layer (HBL) can help manufacturers assess risk and design wind turbines to better withstand these extreme wind conditions. Because of the paucity of observational data at low-levels (200 m and below), we use the Cloud Model Version I (CM1) large-eddy simulation numerical model to simulate high spatial- (10 m) and temporal- (0.1 s) resolution data. This unique dataset is used to answer the following questions: do severe mean wind speeds and gusts that exceed current design limits occur?; how does the gust factor vary with distance from the eye?; and lastly, how does wind direction vary horizontally and with height? We find that mean winds and gusts near the eyewall can exceed current turbine design thresholds of 50 m s-1 and 70 m s-1, respectively. Gust factors are greatest at the eye-eyewall interface just inward of the peak gust location and can exceed the 1.4 value used to convert a 50 m s-1 reference wind speed to a 50-year 3-second gust. Strong veer (15-30 degrees) across a 120 m-layer suggests that veer should be assessed against standard design prescriptions. Lastly, wind directions can shift 10-25 degrees in durations shorter than 10 minutes, which can challenge structures designed to endure winds from a consistent direction for periods longer than 10 minutes, including wind turbines.

GMLC Extreme Event Modeling -- Slow-Dynamics Models for Renewable Energy Resources

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Korkali, M.; Min, L.

The need for slow dynamics models of renewable resources in cascade modeling essentially arises from the challenges associated with the increased use of solar and wind electric power. Indeed, the main challenge is that the power produced by wind and sunlight is not consistent; thus, renewable energy resources tend to have variable output power on many different timescales, including the timescales that a cascade unfolds.

Seasonal forecasting of high wind speeds over Western Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Palutikof, J. P.; Holt, T.

2003-04-01

As financial losses associated with extreme weather events escalate, there is interest from end users in the forestry and insurance industries, for example, in the development of seasonal forecasting models with a long lead time. This study uses exceedences of the 90th, 95th, and 99th percentiles of daily maximum wind speed over the period 1958 to present to derive predictands of winter wind extremes. The source data is the 6-hourly NCEP Reanalysis gridded surface wind field. Predictor variables include principal components of Atlantic sea surface temperature and several indices of climate variability, including the NAO and SOI. Lead times of up to a year are considered, in monthly increments. Three regression techniques are evaluated; multiple linear regression (MLR), principal component regression (PCR), and partial least squares regression (PLS). PCR and PLS proved considerably superior to MLR with much lower standard errors. PLS was chosen to formulate the predictive model since it offers more flexibility in experimental design and gave slightly better results than PCR. The results indicate that winter windiness can be predicted with considerable skill one year ahead for much of coastal Europe, but that this deteriorates rapidly in the hinterland. The experiment succeeded in highlighting PLS as a very useful method for developing more precise forecasting models, and in identifying areas of high predictability.

Assessment of Wind Parameter Sensitivity on Extreme and Fatigue Wind Turbine Loads

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Robertson, Amy N; Sethuraman, Latha; Jonkman, Jason

Wind turbines are designed using a set of simulations to ascertain the structural loads that the turbine could encounter. While mean hub-height wind speed is considered to vary, other wind parameters such as turbulence spectra, sheer, veer, spatial coherence, and component correlation are fixed or conditional values that, in reality, could have different characteristics at different sites and have a significant effect on the resulting loads. This paper therefore seeks to assess the sensitivity of different wind parameters on the resulting ultimate and fatigue loads on the turbine during normal operational conditions. Eighteen different wind parameters are screened using anmore » Elementary Effects approach with radial points. As expected, the results show a high sensitivity of the loads to the turbulence standard deviation in the primary wind direction, but the sensitivity to wind shear is often much greater. To a lesser extent, other wind parameters that drive loads include the coherence in the primary wind direction and veer.« less

Statistical Methods for Quantifying the Variability of Solar Wind Transients of All Sizes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tindale, E.; Chapman, S. C.

2016-12-01

The solar wind is inherently variable across a wide range of timescales, from small-scale turbulent fluctuations to the 11-year periodicity induced by the solar cycle. Each solar cycle is unique, and this change in overall cycle activity is coupled from the Sun to Earth via the solar wind, leading to long-term trends in space weather. Our work [Tindale & Chapman, 2016] applies novel statistical methods to solar wind transients of all sizes, to quantify the variability of the solar wind associated with the solar cycle. We use the same methods to link solar wind observations with those on the Sun and Earth. We use Wind data to construct quantile-quantile (QQ) plots comparing the statistical distributions of multiple commonly used solar wind-magnetosphere coupling parameters between the minima and maxima of solar cycles 23 and 24. We find that in each case the distribution is multicomponent, ranging from small fluctuations to extreme values, with the same functional form at all phases of the solar cycle. The change in PDF is captured by a simple change of variables, which is independent of the PDF model. Using this method we can quantify the quietness of the cycle 24 maximum, identify which variable drives the changing distribution of composite parameters such as ɛ, and we show that the distribution of ɛ is less sensitive to changes in its extreme values than that of its constituents. After demonstrating the QQ method on solar wind data, we extend the analysis to include solar and magnetospheric data spanning the same time period. We focus on GOES X-ray flux and WDC AE index data. Finally, having studied the statistics of transients across the full distribution, we apply the same method to time series of extreme bursts in each variable. Using these statistical tools, we aim to track the solar cycle-driven variability from the Sun through the solar wind and into the Earth's magnetosphere. Tindale, E. and S.C. Chapman (2016), Geophys. Res. Lett., 43(11), doi: 10.1002/2016GL068920.

Turbulent Extreme Event Simulations for Lidar-Assisted Wind Turbine Control

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schlipf, David; Raach, Steffen

2016-09-01

This work presents a wind field generator which allows to shape wind fields in the time domain while maintaining the spectral properties. This is done by an iterative generation of wind fields and by minimizing the error between wind characteristics of the generated wind fields and desired values. The method leads towards realistic ultimate load calculations for lidar-assisted control. This is demonstrated by fitting a turbulent wind field to an Extreme Operating Gust. The wind field is then used to compare a baseline feedback controller alone against a combined feedback and feedforward controller using simulated lidar measurements. The comparison confirms that the lidar-assisted controller is still able to significantly reduce the ultimate loads on the tower base under this more realistic conditions.

Surface Wind Vector and Rain Rate Observation Capability of Future Hurricane Imaging Radiometer (HIRAD)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Miller, Timothy; Atlas, Robert; Bailey, M. C.; Black, Peter; El-Nimri, Salem; Hood, Robbie; James, Mark; Johnson, James; Jones, Linwood; Ruf, Christopher;

Extreme wind-wave modeling and analysis in the south Atlantic ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Campos, R. M.; Alves, J. H. G. M.; Guedes Soares, C.; Guimaraes, L. G.; Parente, C. E.

2018-04-01

A set of wave hindcasts is constructed using two different types of wind calibration, followed by an additional test retuning the input source term Sin in the wave model. The goal is to improve the simulation in extreme wave events in the South Atlantic Ocean without compromising average conditions. Wind fields are based on Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR/NCEP). The first wind calibration applies a simple linear regression model, with coefficients obtained from the comparison of CFSR against buoy data. The second is a method where deficiencies of the CFSR associated with severe sea state events are remedied, whereby "defective" winds are replaced with satellite data within cyclones. A total of six wind datasets forced WAVEWATCH-III and additional three tests with modified Sin in WAVEWATCH III lead to a total of nine wave hindcasts that are evaluated against satellite and buoy data for ambient and extreme conditions. The target variable considered is the significant wave height (Hs). The increase of sea-state severity shows a progressive increase of the hindcast underestimation which could be calculated as a function of percentiles. The wind calibration using a linear regression function shows similar results to the adjustments to Sin term (increase of βmax parameter) in WAVEWATCH-III - it effectively reduces the average bias of Hs but cannot avoid the increase of errors with percentiles. The use of blended scatterometer winds within cyclones could reduce the increasing wave hindcast errors mainly above the 93rd percentile and leads to a better representation of Hs at the peak of the storms. The combination of linear regression calibration of non-cyclonic winds with scatterometer winds within the cyclones generated a wave hindcast with small errors from calm to extreme conditions. This approach led to a reduction of the percentage error of Hs from 14% to less than 8% for extreme waves, while also improving the RMSE.

Extreme Fire Severity Patterns in Topographic, Convective and Wind-Driven Historical Wildfires of Mediterranean Pine Forests

PubMed Central

Lecina-Diaz, Judit; Alvarez, Albert; Retana, Javier

2014-01-01

Crown fires associated with extreme fire severity are extremely difficult to control. We have assessed fire severity using differenced Normalized Burn Ratio (dNBR) from Landsat imagery in 15 historical wildfires of Pinus halepensis Mill. We have considered a wide range of innovative topographic, fuel and fire behavior variables with the purposes of (1) determining the variables that influence fire severity patterns among fires (considering the 15 wildfires together) and (2) ascertaining whether different variables affect extreme fire severity within the three fire types (topographic, convective and wind-driven fires). The among-fires analysis showed that fires in less arid climates and with steeper slopes had more extreme severity. In less arid conditions there was more crown fuel accumulation and closer forest structures, promoting high vertical and horizontal fuel continuity and extreme fire severity. The analyses carried out for each fire separately (within fires) showed more extreme fire severity in areas in northern aspects, with steeper slopes, with high crown biomass and in climates with more water availability. In northern aspects solar radiation was lower and fuels had less water limitation to growth which, combined with steeper slopes, produced more extreme severity. In topographic fires there was more extreme severity in northern aspects with steeper slopes and in areas with more water availability and high crown biomass; in convection-dominated fires there was also more extreme fire severity in northern aspects with high biomass; while in wind-driven fires there was only a slight interaction between biomass and water availability. This latter pattern could be related to the fact that wind-driven fires spread with high wind speed, which could have minimized the effect of other variables. In the future, and as a consequence of climate change, new zones with high crown biomass accumulated in non-common drought areas will be available to burn as extreme severity wildfires. PMID:24465492

Extreme fire severity patterns in topographic, convective and wind-driven historical wildfires of Mediterranean pine forests.

PubMed

Lecina-Diaz, Judit; Alvarez, Albert; Retana, Javier

2014-01-01

Crown fires associated with extreme fire severity are extremely difficult to control. We have assessed fire severity using differenced Normalized Burn Ratio (dNBR) from Landsat imagery in 15 historical wildfires of Pinus halepensis Mill. We have considered a wide range of innovative topographic, fuel and fire behavior variables with the purposes of (1) determining the variables that influence fire severity patterns among fires (considering the 15 wildfires together) and (2) ascertaining whether different variables affect extreme fire severity within the three fire types (topographic, convective and wind-driven fires). The among-fires analysis showed that fires in less arid climates and with steeper slopes had more extreme severity. In less arid conditions there was more crown fuel accumulation and closer forest structures, promoting high vertical and horizontal fuel continuity and extreme fire severity. The analyses carried out for each fire separately (within fires) showed more extreme fire severity in areas in northern aspects, with steeper slopes, with high crown biomass and in climates with more water availability. In northern aspects solar radiation was lower and fuels had less water limitation to growth which, combined with steeper slopes, produced more extreme severity. In topographic fires there was more extreme severity in northern aspects with steeper slopes and in areas with more water availability and high crown biomass; in convection-dominated fires there was also more extreme fire severity in northern aspects with high biomass; while in wind-driven fires there was only a slight interaction between biomass and water availability. This latter pattern could be related to the fact that wind-driven fires spread with high wind speed, which could have minimized the effect of other variables. In the future, and as a consequence of climate change, new zones with high crown biomass accumulated in non-common drought areas will be available to burn as extreme severity wildfires.

Understanding the X-ray Flaring from Eta Carinae

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Moffat, A.F.J.; Corcoran, Michael F.

2009-01-01

We quantify the rapid variations in X-ray brightness ("flares") from the extremely massive colliding wind binary Eta Carinae seen during the past three orbital cycles by RXTE. The observed flares tend to be shorter in duration and more frequent as periastron is approached, although the largest ones tend to be roughly constant in strength at all phases. Plausible scenarios include (1) the largest of multi-scale stochastic wind clumps from the LBV component entering and compressing the hard X-ray emitting wind-wind collision (WWC) zone, (2) large-scale corotating interacting regions in the LBV wind sweeping across the WWC zone, or (3) instabilities intrinsic to the WWC zone. The first one appears to be most consistent with the observations, requiring homologously expanding clumps as they propagate outward in the LBV wind and a turbulence-like powerlaw distribution of clumps, decreasing in number towards larger sizes, as seen in Wolf-Rayet winds.

Mesoscale high-resolution modeling of extreme wind speeds over western water areas of the Russian Arctic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Platonov, Vladimir S.; Kislov, Alexander V.

2016-11-01

A statistical analysis of extreme weather events over coastal areas of the Russian Arctic based on observational data has revealed many interesting features of wind velocity distributions. It has been shown that the extremes contain data belonging to two different statistical populations. Each of them is reliably described by a Weibull distribution. According to the standard terminology, these sets of extremes are named ‘black swans’ and ‘dragons’. The ‘dragons’ are responsible for most extremes, surpassing the ‘black swans’ by 10 - 30 %. Since the data of the global climate model INM-CM4 do not contain ‘dragons’, the wind speed extremes are investigated on the mesoscale using the COSMO-CLM model. The modelling results reveal no differences between the ‘swans’ and ‘dragons’ situations. It could be associated with the poor sample data used. However, according to many case studies and modeling results we assume that it is caused by a rare superposition of large-scale synoptic factors and many local meso- and microscale factors (surface, coastline configuration, etc.). Further studies of extreme wind speeds in the Arctic, such as ‘black swans’ and ‘dragons’, are necessary to focus on non-hydrostatic high-resolution atmospheric modelling using downscaling techniques.

PROBABILISTIC HAZARD ASSESSMENT FOR TORNADOES, STRAIGHT-LINE WIND, AND EXTREME PRECIPITATION AT THE SAVANNAH RIVER SITE

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Werth, D.; NOEMAIL), A.; Shine, G.

Recent data sets for three meteorological phenomena with the potential to inflict damage on SRS facilities - tornadoes, straight winds, and heavy precipitation - are analyzed using appropriate statistical techniques to estimate occurrence probabilities for these events in the future. Summaries of the results for DOE-mandated return periods and comparisons to similar calculations performed in 1998 by Weber, et al., are given. Using tornado statistics for the states of Georgia and South Carolina, we calculated the probability per year of any location within a 2⁰ square area surrounding SRS being struck by a tornado (the ‘strike’ probability) and the probabilitymore » that any point will experience winds above set thresholds. The strike probability was calculated to be 1.15E-3 (1 chance in 870) per year and wind speeds for DOE mandated return periods of 50,000 years, 125,000 years, and 1E+7 years (USDOE, 2012) were estimated to be 136 mph, 151 mph and 221 mph, respectively. In 1998 the strike probability for SRS was estimated to be 3.53 E-4 and the return period wind speeds were 148 mph every 50,000 years and 180 mph every 125,000 years. A 1E+7 year tornado wind speed was not calculated in 1998; however a 3E+6 year wind speed was 260 mph. The lower wind speeds resulting from this most recent analysis are largely due to new data since 1998, and to a lesser degree differences in the models used. By contrast, default tornado wind speeds taken from ANSI/ANS-2.3-2011 are somewhat higher: 161 mph for return periods of 50,000 years, 173 mph every 125,000 years, and 230 mph every 1E+7 years (ANS, 2011). Although the ANS model and the SRS models are very similar, the region defined in ANS 2.3 that encompasses the SRS also includes areas of the Great Plains and lower Midwest, regions with much higher occurrence frequencies of strong tornadoes. The SRS straight wind values associated with various return periods were calculated by fitting existing wind data to a Gumbel distribution, and extrapolating the values for any return period from the tail of that function. For the DOE mandated return periods, we expect straight winds of 123 mph every 2500 years, and 132mph every 6250 years at any point within the SRS. These values are similar to those from the W98 report (which also used the Gumbel distribution for wind speeds) which gave wind speeds of 115mph and 122 mph for return periods of 2500 years and 6250 years, respectively. For extreme precipitation accumulation periods, we compared the fits of three different theoretical extreme-value distributions, and in the end decided to maintain the use of the Gumbel distribution for each period. The DOE mandated 6-hr accumulated rainfall for return periods of 2500 years and 6250 years was estimated as 7.8 inches and 8.4 inches, respectively. For the 24- hr rainfall return periods of 10,000 years and 25,000 years, total rainfall estimates were 10.4 inches and 11.1 inches, respectively. These values are substantially lower than comparable values provided in the W98 report. This is largely a consequence of the W98 use of a different extreme value distribution with its corresponding higher extreme probabilities.« less

Changes in the extremes of the climate simulated by CCC GCM2 under CO{sub 2} doubling

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zwiers, F.W.; Kharin, V.V.

Changes due to CO{sub 2} doubling in the extremes of the surface climate as simulated by the second-generation circulation model of the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis are studied in two 20-yr equilibrium simulations. Extreme values of screen temperature, precipitation, and near-surface wind in the control climate are compared to those estimated from 17 yr of the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis data and from some Canadian station data. The extremes of screen temperature are reasonably well reproduced in the control climate. Their changes under CO{sub 2} doubling can be connected with other physical changes such as surface albedo changes duemore » to the reduction of snow and sea ice cover as well as a decrease of soil moisture in the warmer world. The signal in the extremes of daily precipitation and near-surface wind speed due to CO{sub 2} doubling is less obvious. The precipitation extremes increase almost everywhere over the globe. The strongest change, over northwest India, is related to the intensification of the summer monsoon in this region in the warmer world. The modest reduction of wind extremes in the Tropics and middle latitudes is consistent with the reduction of the meridional temperature gradient in the 2{times}CO{sub 2} climate. The larger wind extremes occur in the areas where sea ice has retreated.« less

Climate extremes in Malaysia and the equatorial South China Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salahuddin, Ahmed; Curtis, Scott

2011-08-01

The southern extent of the South China Sea (SCS) is an important natural resource epicenter for Malaysia which experiences climate extremes. This paper documents the variability of extremes in the equatorial SCS through selected ground-based observations of precipitation in Malaysia and ship-based observations of wind data in the Maritime Continent region, to elucidate the interrelationship between precipitation variability over Malaysia and wind variability over the ocean. The data have been carefully inspected and analyzed, and related to the real-time multivariate Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) time series. The analysis suggests that the northeast or boreal winter monsoon dominates extreme rainfall in eastern Malaysian cities. Further, the west coast of Peninsular Malaysia and Borneo Malaysia are affected by the MJO differently than the east coast of Peninsular Malaysia. From the wind analysis we found that average zonal wind is westerly from May to September and easterly from November to April. When the active (convective) phase of the MJO is centered over the Maritime Continent, the strong westerly wind bursts are more frequent in the South China Sea. While more investigation is needed, these results suggest that the status of the Madden-Julian Oscillation can be used to help forecast climate extremes in areas of Malaysia.

Climate and its change over the Tibetan Plateau and its Surroundings in 1963-2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ding, J.; Cuo, L.

2017-12-01

Tibetan Plateau and its surroundings (TPS, 23°-43°N, 73°-106°E) lies in the southwest of China and includes Tibet Autonomous Region, Qinghai Province, southern Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, part of Gansu Province, western Sichuan Province, and northern Yunnan Province. The region is of strategic importance in water resources because it is the headwater of ten large rivers that support more than 16 billion population. In this study, we use daily temperature maximum and minimum, precipitation and wind speed in 1963-2015 obtained from Climate Data Center of China Meteorological Administration and Qinghai Meteorological Bureau to investigate extreme climate conditions and their changes over the TPS. The extreme events are selected based on annual extreme values and percentiles. Annual extreme value approach produces one value each year for all variables, which enables us to examine the magnitude of extreme events; whereas percentile approach selects extreme values by setting 95th percentile as thresholds for maximum temperature, precipitation and wind speed, and 5th percentile for minimum temperature. Percentile approach not only enables us to investigate the magnitude but also frequency of the extreme events. Also, Mann-Kendall trend and mutation analysis were applied to analyze the changes in mean and extreme conditions. The results will help us understand more about the extreme events during the past five decades on the TPS and will provide valuable information for the upcoming IPCC reports on climate change.

Wind tunnel tests for wind pressure distribution on gable roof buildings.

PubMed

Jing, Xiao-kun; Li, Yuan-qi

2013-01-01

Gable roof buildings are widely used in industrial buildings. Based on wind tunnel tests with rigid models, wind pressure distributions on gable roof buildings with different aspect ratios were measured simultaneously. Some characteristics of the measured wind pressure field on the surfaces of the models were analyzed, including mean wind pressure, fluctuating wind pressure, peak negative wind pressure, and characteristics of proper orthogonal decomposition results of the measured wind pressure field. The results show that extremely high local suctions often occur in the leading edges of longitudinal wall and windward roof, roof corner, and roof ridge which are the severe damaged locations under strong wind. The aspect ratio of building has a certain effect on the mean wind pressure coefficients, and the effect relates to wind attack angle. Compared with experimental results, the region division of roof corner and roof ridge from AIJ2004 is more reasonable than those from CECS102:2002 and MBMA2006.The contributions of the first several eigenvectors to the overall wind pressure distributions become much bigger. The investigation can offer some basic understanding for estimating wind load distribution on gable roof buildings and facilitate wind-resistant design of cladding components and their connections considering wind load path.

Introducing CGOLS: The Cholla Galactic Outflow Simulation Suite

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schneider, Evan E.; Robertson, Brant E.

2018-06-01

We present the Cholla Galactic OutfLow Simulations (CGOLS) suite, a set of extremely high resolution global simulations of isolated disk galaxies designed to clarify the nature of multiphase structure in galactic winds. Using the GPU-based code Cholla, we achieve unprecedented resolution in these simulations, modeling galaxies over a 20 kpc region at a constant resolution of 5 pc. The simulations include a feedback model designed to test the effects of different mass- and energy-loading factors on galactic outflows over kiloparsec scales. In addition to describing the simulation methodology in detail, we also present the results from an adiabatic simulation that tests the frequently adopted analytic galactic wind model of Chevalier & Clegg. Our results indicate that the Chevalier & Clegg model is a good fit to nuclear starburst winds in the nonradiative region of parameter space. Finally, we investigate the role of resolution and convergence in large-scale simulations of multiphase galactic winds. While our largest-scale simulations show convergence of observable features like soft X-ray emission, our tests demonstrate that simulations of this kind with resolutions greater than 10 pc are not yet converged, confirming the need for extreme resolution in order to study the structure of winds and their effects on the circumgalactic medium.

Extreme winds and tornadoes: an overview

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

McDonald, J.R.

1985-01-01

The objective of this course on extreme winds, hurricanes and tornadoes is to provide an overview of these natural phenomenon from the perspective of design of new buildings and structures or the evaluation of existing ones. Information is directly applicable to design and evaluation processes. The premise is that the facility under consideration, which may consist of various buildings, structures, processing equipment, stacks, ventilation ducts, etc., can be classified into certain categories, depending on the importance of the mission performed in the facility or the hazard that is presented by the particular operation. Having classified the facility into an appropriatemore » category will automatically define certain design goals for the facility. The design goals are then met by selecting a design wind speed that is appropriate for the specified exceedance probability and by following certain specified design procedures. The problem then is to determine appropriate wind loads and other applicable loads, including dead loads, live loads, seismic loads and other loads that may act on the structures. The design process can then proceed in the usual manner. In the case of existing facilities the strengths of the various structural elements, subsystems and systems are evaluated and these strengths are related to wind speeds that would result in failure to meet the design goals. 12 refs.« less

Generation of multivariate near shore extreme wave conditions based on an extreme value copula for offshore boundary conditions.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leyssen, Gert; Mercelis, Peter; De Schoesitter, Philippe; Blanckaert, Joris

2013-04-01

Near shore extreme wave conditions, used as input for numerical wave agitation simulations and for the dimensioning of coastal defense structures, need to be determined at a harbour entrance situated at the French North Sea coast. To obtain significant wave heights, the numerical wave model SWAN has been used. A multivariate approach was used to account for the joint probabilities. Considered variables are: wind velocity and direction, water level and significant offshore wave height and wave period. In a first step a univariate extreme value distribution has been determined for the main variables. By means of a technique based on the mean excess function, an appropriate member of the GPD is selected. An optimal threshold for peak over threshold selection is determined by maximum likelihood optimization. Next, the joint dependency structure for the primary random variables is modeled by an extreme value copula. Eventually the multivariate domain of variables was stratified in different classes, each of which representing a combination of variable quantiles with a joint probability, which are used for model simulation. The main variable is the wind velocity, as in the area of concern extreme wave conditions are wind driven. The analysis is repeated for 9 different wind directions. The secondary variable is water level. In shallow waters extreme waves will be directly affected by water depth. Hence the joint probability of occurrence for water level and wave height is of major importance for design of coastal defense structures. Wind velocity and water levels are only dependent for some wind directions (wind induced setup). Dependent directions are detected using a Kendall and Spearman test and appeared to be those with the longest fetch. For these directions, wind velocity and water level extreme value distributions are multivariately linked through a Gumbel Copula. These distributions are stratified into classes of which the frequency of occurrence can be calculated. For the remaining directions the univariate extreme wind velocity distribution is stratified, each class combined with 5 high water levels. The wave height at the model boundaries was taken into account by a regression with the extreme wind velocity at the offshore location. The regression line and the 95% confidence limits where combined with each class. Eventually the wave period is computed by a new regression with the significant wave height. This way 1103 synthetic events were selected and simulated with the SWAN wave model, each of which a frequency of occurrence is calculated for. Hence near shore significant wave heights are obtained with corresponding frequencies. The statistical distribution of the near shore wave heights is determined by sorting the model results in a descending order and accumulating the corresponding frequencies. This approach allows determination of conditional return periods. For example, for the imposed univariate design return periods of 100 years for significant wave height and 30 years for water level, the joint return period for a simultaneous exceedance of both conditions can be computed as 4000 years. Hence, this methodology allows for a probabilistic design of coastal defense structures.

Monitoring of wind load and response for cable-supported bridges in Hong Kong

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wong, Kai-yuen; Chan, Wai-Yee K.; Man, King-Leung

2001-08-01

Structural health monitoring for the three cable-supported bridges located in the West of Hong Kong or the Tsing Ma Control Area has been carried out since the opening of these bridges to public traffic. The three cable-supported bridges are referred to as the Tsing Ma (suspension) Bridge, the Kap Shui Mun (cable-stayed) Bridge and the Ting Kau (cable-stayed) Bridge. The structural health monitoring works involved are classified as six monitoring categories, namely, wind load and response, temperature load and response, traffic load and response, geometrical configuration monitoring, strains and stresses/forces monitoring and global dynamic characteristics monitoring. As wind loads and responses had been a major concern in the design and construction stages, this paper therefore outlines the work of wind load and response monitoring on Tsing Ma, Kap Shui Mun and Ting Kau Bridges. The paper starts with a brief description of the sensory systems. The description includes the layout and performance requirements of sensory systems for wind load and responses monitoring. Typical results of wind load and response monitoring in graphical forms are then presented. These graphical forms include the plots of wind rose diagrams, wind incidences vs wind speeds, wind turbulence intensities, wind power spectra, gust wind factors, coefficient of terrain roughness, extreme wind analyses, deck deflections/rotations vs wind speeds, acceleration spectra, acceleration/displacement contours, and stress demand ratios. Finally conclusions on wind load and response monitoring on the three cable-supported bridges are drawn.

Measurement and Analysis of Extreme Wave and Ice Actions in the Great Lakes for Offshore Wind Platform Design

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

England, Tony; van Nieuwstadt, Lin; De Roo, Roger

This project, funded by the Department of Energy as DE-EE0005376, successfully measured wind-driven lake ice forces on an offshore structure in Lake Superior through one of the coldest winters in recent history. While offshore regions of the Great Lakes offer promising opportunities for harvesting wind energy, these massive bodies of freshwater also offer extreme and unique challenges. Among these challenges is the need to anticipate forces exerted on offshore structures by lake ice. The parameters of interest include the frequency, extent, and movement of lake ice, parameters that are routinely monitored via satellite, and ice thickness, a parameter that hasmore » been monitored at discrete locations over many years and is routinely modeled. Essential relationships for these data to be of use in the design of offshore structures and the primary objective of this project are measurements of maximum forces that lake ice of known thicknesses might exert on an offshore structure.« less

Changes in wind speed and extremes in Beijing during 1960-2008 based on homogenized observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Zhen; Yan, Zhongwei; Tu, Kai; Liu, Weidong; Wang, Yingchun

2011-03-01

Daily observations of wind speed at 12 stations in the Greater Beijing Area during 1960-2008 were homogenized using the Multiple Analysis of Series for Homogenization method. The linear trends in the regional mean annual and seasonal (winter, spring, summer and autumn) wind speed series were -0.26, -0.39, -0.30, -0.12 and -0.22 m s-1 (10 yr)-1, respectively. Winter showed the greatest magnitude in declining wind speed, followed by spring, autumn and summer. The annual and seasonal frequencies of wind speed extremes (days) also decreased, more prominently for winter than for the other seasons. The declining trends in wind speed and extremes were formed mainly by some rapid declines during the 1970s and 1980s. The maximum declining trend in wind speed occurred at Chaoyang (CY), a station within the central business district (CBD) of Beijing with the highest level of urbanization. The declining trends were in general smaller in magnitude away from the city center, except for the winter case in which the maximum declining trend shifted northeastward to rural Miyun (MY). The influence of urbanization on the annual wind speed was estimated to be about -0.05 m s-1 (10 yr)-1 during 1960-2008, accounting for around one fifth of the regional mean declining trend. The annual and seasonal geostrophic wind speeds around Beijing, based on daily mean sea level pressure (MSLP) from the ERA-40 reanalysis dataset, also exhibited decreasing trends, coincident with the results from site observations. A comparative analysis of the MSLP fields between 1966-1975 and 1992-2001 suggested that the influences of both the winter and summer monsoons on Beijing were weaker in the more recent of the two decades. It is suggested that the bulk of wind in Beijing is influenced considerably by urbanization, while changes in strong winds or wind speed extremes are prone to large-scale climate change in the region.

Climate projection of synoptic patterns forming extremely high wind speed over the Barents Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Surkova, Galina; Krylov, Aleksey

2017-04-01

Frequency of extreme weather events is not very high, but their consequences for the human well-being may be hazardous. These seldom events are not always well simulated by climate models directly. Sometimes it is more effective to analyze numerical projection of large-scale synoptic event generating extreme weather. For example, in mid-latitude surface wind speed depends mainly on the sea level pressure (SLP) field - its configuration and horizontal pressure gradient. This idea was implemented for analysis of extreme wind speed events over the Barents Sea. The calendar of high surface wind speed V (10 m above the surface) was prepared for events with V exceeding 99th percentile value in the central part of the Barents Sea. Analysis of probability distribution function of V was carried out on the base of ERA-Interim reanalysis data (6-hours, 0.75x0.75 degrees of latitude and longitude) for the period 1981-2010. Storm wind events number was found to be 240 days. Sea level pressure field over the sea and surrounding area was selected for each storm wind event. For the climate of the future (scenario RCP8.5), projections of SLP from CMIP5 numerical experiments were used. More than 20 climate models results of projected SLP (2006-2100) over the Barents Sea were correlated with modern storm wind SLP fields. Our calculations showed the positive tendency of annual frequency of storm SLP patterns over the Barents Sea by the end of 21st century.

Subalpine forests

Treesearch

C.I. Millar; P.W. Rundel

2016-01-01

The subalpine forests of California comprise the highest elevation ecosystems that are dominated by upright trees. They are defined as a zone influenced primarily by abiotic controls, including persistent snowpack, desiccating winds, acute and chronic extreme temperatures, soil moisture and evapotranspirative stresses, and short growing seasons. Bounded at the...

Wind Tunnel Tests for Wind Pressure Distribution on Gable Roof Buildings

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Gable roof buildings are widely used in industrial buildings. Based on wind tunnel tests with rigid models, wind pressure distributions on gable roof buildings with different aspect ratios were measured simultaneously. Some characteristics of the measured wind pressure field on the surfaces of the models were analyzed, including mean wind pressure, fluctuating wind pressure, peak negative wind pressure, and characteristics of proper orthogonal decomposition results of the measured wind pressure field. The results show that extremely high local suctions often occur in the leading edges of longitudinal wall and windward roof, roof corner, and roof ridge which are the severe damaged locations under strong wind. The aspect ratio of building has a certain effect on the mean wind pressure coefficients, and the effect relates to wind attack angle. Compared with experimental results, the region division of roof corner and roof ridge from AIJ2004 is more reasonable than those from CECS102:2002 and MBMA2006.The contributions of the first several eigenvectors to the overall wind pressure distributions become much bigger. The investigation can offer some basic understanding for estimating wind load distribution on gable roof buildings and facilitate wind-resistant design of cladding components and their connections considering wind load path. PMID:24082851

Revealing the Physics of Galactic Winds Through Massively-Parallel Hydrodynamics Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schneider, Evan Elizabeth

This thesis documents the hydrodynamics code Cholla and a numerical study of multiphase galactic winds. Cholla is a massively-parallel, GPU-based code designed for astrophysical simulations that is freely available to the astrophysics community. A static-mesh Eulerian code, Cholla is ideally suited to carrying out massive simulations (> 20483 cells) that require very high resolution. The code incorporates state-of-the-art hydrodynamics algorithms including third-order spatial reconstruction, exact and linearized Riemann solvers, and unsplit integration algorithms that account for transverse fluxes on multidimensional grids. Operator-split radiative cooling and a dual-energy formalism for high mach number flows are also included. An extensive test suite demonstrates Cholla's superior ability to model shocks and discontinuities, while the GPU-native design makes the code extremely computationally efficient - speeds of 5-10 million cell updates per GPU-second are typical on current hardware for 3D simulations with all of the aforementioned physics. The latter half of this work comprises a comprehensive study of the mixing between a hot, supernova-driven wind and cooler clouds representative of those observed in multiphase galactic winds. Both adiabatic and radiatively-cooling clouds are investigated. The analytic theory of cloud-crushing is applied to the problem, and adiabatic turbulent clouds are found to be mixed with the hot wind on similar timescales as the classic spherical case (4-5 t cc) with an appropriate rescaling of the cloud-crushing time. Radiatively cooling clouds survive considerably longer, and the differences in evolution between turbulent and spherical clouds cannot be reconciled with a simple rescaling. The rapid incorporation of low-density material into the hot wind implies efficient mass-loading of hot phases of galactic winds. At the same time, the extreme compression of high-density cloud material leads to long-lived but slow-moving clumps that are unlikely to escape the galaxy.

MESSENGER Observations of Extreme Space Weather in Mercury's Magnetosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Slavin, J. A.

2013-09-01

Increasing activity on the Sun is allowing MESSENGER to make its first observations of Mercury's magnetosphere under extreme solar wind conditions. At Earth interplanetary shock waves and coronal mass ejections produce severe "space weather" in the form of large geomagnetic storms that affect telecommunications, space systems, and ground-based power grids. In the case of Mercury the primary effect of extreme space weather in on the degree to which this it's weak global magnetic field can shield the planet from the solar wind. Direct impact of the solar wind on the surface of airless bodies like Mercury results in space weathering of the regolith and the sputtering of atomic species like sodium and calcium to high altitudes where they contribute to a tenuous, but highly dynamic exosphere. MESSENGER observations indicate that during extreme interplanetary conditions the solar wind plasma gains access to the surface of Mercury through three main regions: 1. The magnetospheric cusps, which fill with energized solar wind and planetary ions; 2. The subsolar magnetopause, which is compressed and eroded by reconnection to very low altitudes where the natural gyro-motion of solar wind protons may result in their impact on the surface; 3. The magnetotail where hot plasma sheet ions rapidly convect sunward to impact the surface on the nightside of Mercury. The possible implications of these new MESSENGER observations for our ability to predict space weather at Earth and other planets will be described.

Evaluation of the National Weather Service Extreme Cold Warning Experiment in North Dakota

PubMed Central

Chiu, Cindy H.; Vagi, Sara J.; Wolkin, Amy F.; Martin, John Paul; Noe, Rebecca S.

2016-01-01

Dangerously cold weather threatens life and property. During periods of extreme cold due to wind chill, the National Weather Service (NWS) issues wind chill warnings to prompt the public to take action to mitigate risks. Wind chill warnings are based on ambient temperatures and wind speeds. Since 2010, NWS has piloted a new extreme cold warning issued for cold temperatures in wind and nonwind conditions. The North Dakota Department of Health, NWS, and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention collaborated in conducting household surveys in Burleigh County, North Dakota, to evaluate this new warning. The objectives of the evaluation were to assess whether residents heard the new warning and to determine if protective behaviors were prompted by the warning. This was a cross-sectional survey design using the Community Assessment for Public Health Emergency Response (CASPER) methodology to select a statistically representative sample of households from Burleigh County. From 10 to 11 April 2012, 188 door-to-door household interviews were completed. The CASPER methodology uses probability sampling with weighted analysis to estimate the number and percentage of households with a specific response within Burleigh County. The majority of households reported having heard both the extreme cold and wind chill warnings, and both warnings prompted protective behaviors. These results suggest this community heard the new warning and took protective actions after hearing the warning. PMID:27239260

A Compendium of Wind Statistics and Models for the NASA Space Shuttle and Other Aerospace Vehicle Programs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, O. E.; Adelfang, S. I.

1998-01-01

The wind profile with all of its variations with respect to altitude has been, is now, and will continue to be important for aerospace vehicle design and operations. Wind profile databases and models are used for the vehicle ascent flight design for structural wind loading, flight control systems, performance analysis, and launch operations. This report presents the evolution of wind statistics and wind models from the empirical scalar wind profile model established for the Saturn Program through the development of the vector wind profile model used for the Space Shuttle design to the variations of this wind modeling concept for the X-33 program. Because wind is a vector quantity, the vector wind models use the rigorous mathematical probability properties of the multivariate normal probability distribution. When the vehicle ascent steering commands (ascent guidance) are wind biased to the wind profile measured on the day-of-launch, ascent structural wind loads are reduced and launch probability is increased. This wind load alleviation technique is recommended in the initial phase of vehicle development. The vehicle must fly through the largest load allowable versus altitude to achieve its mission. The Gumbel extreme value probability distribution is used to obtain the probability of exceeding (or not exceeding) the load allowable. The time conditional probability function is derived from the Gumbel bivariate extreme value distribution. This time conditional function is used for calculation of wind loads persistence increments using 3.5-hour Jimsphere wind pairs. These increments are used to protect the commit-to-launch decision. Other topics presented include the Shuttle Shuttle load-response to smoothed wind profiles, a new gust model, and advancements in wind profile measuring systems. From the lessons learned and knowledge gained from past vehicle programs, the development of future launch vehicles can be accelerated. However, new vehicle programs by their very nature will require specialized support for new databases and analyses for wind, atmospheric parameters (pressure, temperature, and density versus altitude), and weather. It is for this reason that project managers are encouraged to collaborate with natural environment specialists early in the conceptual design phase. Such action will give the lead time necessary to meet the natural environment design and operational requirements, and thus, reduce development costs.

Wind data for wind driven plant. [site selection for optimal performance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stodhart, A. H.

1973-01-01

Simple, averaged wind velocity data provide information on energy availability, facilitate generator site selection and enable appropriate operating ranges to be established for windpowered plants. They also provide a basis for the prediction of extreme wind speeds.

The Impact of Natural Hazards such as Turbulent Wind Gusts on the Wind Energy Conversion Process

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wächter, M.; Hölling, M.; Milan, P.; Morales, A.; Peinke, J.

2012-12-01

Wind turbines operate in the atmospheric boundary layer, where they are exposed to wind gusts and other types of natural hazards. As the response time of wind turbines is typically in the range of seconds, they are affected by the small scale intermittent properties of the turbulent wind. We show evidence that basic features which are known for small-scale homogeneous isotropic turbulence, and in particular the well-known intermittency problem, have an important impact on the wind energy conversion process. Intermittent statistics include high probabilities of extreme events which can be related to wind gusts and other types of natural hazards. As a summarizing result we find that atmospheric turbulence imposes its intermittent features on the complete wind energy conversion process. Intermittent turbulence features are not only present in atmospheric wind, but are also dominant in the loads on the turbine, i.e. rotor torque and thrust, and in the electrical power output signal. We conclude that profound knowledge of turbulent statistics and the application of suitable numerical as well as experimental methods are necessary to grasp these unique features and quantify their effects on all stages of wind energy conversion.

Modeling extreme sea levels due to tropical and extra-tropical cyclones at the global-scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muis, S.; Lin, N.; Verlaan, M.; Winsemius, H.; Ward, P.; Aerts, J.

2017-12-01

Extreme sea levels, a combination of storm surges and astronomical tides, can cause catastrophic floods. Due to their intense wind speeds and low pressure, tropical cyclones (TCs) typically cause higher storm surges than extra-tropical cyclones (ETCs), but ETCs may still contribute significantly to the overall flood risk. In this contribution, we show a novel approach to model extreme sea levels due to both tropical and extra-tropical cyclones at the global-scale. Using a global hydrodynamic model we have developed the Global Tide and Surge Reanalysis (GTSR) dataset (Muis et al., 2016), which provides daily maximum timeseries of storm tide from 1979 to 2014. GTSR is based on wind and pressure fields from the ERA-Interim climate reanalysis (Dee at al., 2011). A severe limitation of the GTSR dataset is the underrepresentation of TCs. This is due to the relatively coarse grid resolution of ERA-Interim, which means that the strong intensities of TCs are not fully included. Furthermore, the length of ERA-Interim is too short to estimate the probabilities of extreme TCs in a reliable way. We will discuss potential ways to address this limitation, and demonstrate how to improve the global GTSR framework. We will apply the improved framework to the east coast of the United States. First, we improve our meteorological forcing by applying a parametric hurricane model (Holland 1980), and we improve the tide and surge reanalysis dataset (Muis et al., 2016) by explicitly modeling the historical TCs in the Extended Best Track dataset (Demuth et al., 2006). Second, we improve our sampling by statistically extending the observed TC record to many thousands of years (Emanuel et al., 2006). The improved framework allows for the mapping of probabilities of extreme sea levels, including extremes TC events, for the east coast of the United States. ReferencesDee et al (2011). The ERA-Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 137, 553-97. Emanuel et al (2006). A Statistical Deterministic Approach to Hurricane Risk Assessment/ Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 87, 299-314. Holland (1980). An analytic model of the wind and pressure profiles in hurricanes. Mon. Weather Rev. 108, 1212-1218. Muis et al (2016). A global reanalysis of storm surge and extreme sea levels. Nat. Commun. 7, 1-11

Typical meteorological conditions associated with extreme nitrogen dioxide (NO2) pollution events over Scandinavia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thomas, Manu Anna; Devasthale, Abhay

2017-10-01

Characterizing typical meteorological conditions associated with extreme pollution events helps to better understand the role of local meteorology in governing the transport and distribution of pollutants in the atmosphere. The knowledge of their co-variability could further help to evaluate and constrain chemistry transport models. Hence, in this study, we investigate the statistical linkages between extreme nitrogen dioxide (NO2) pollution events and meteorology over Scandinavia using observational and reanalysis data. It is observed that the south-westerly winds dominated during extreme events, accounting for 50-65 % of the total events depending on the season, while the second largest annual occurrence was from south-easterly winds, accounting for 17 % of total events. The specific humidity anomalies showed an influx of warmer and moisture-laden air masses over Scandinavia in the free troposphere. Two distinct modes in the persistency of circulation patterns are observed. The first mode lasts for 1-2 days, dominated by south-easterly winds that prevailed during 78 % of total extreme events in that mode, while the second mode lasted for 3-5 days, dominated by south-westerly winds that prevailed during 86 % of the events. The combined analysis of circulation patterns, their persistency, and associated changes in humidity and clouds suggests that NO2 extreme events over Scandinavia occur mainly due to long-range transport from the southern latitudes.

The Interplanetary and Magnetospheric Causes of Extreme DB/dt at Equatorial Locations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Adebesin, Babatunde O.; Pulkkinen, Antti; Ngwira, Chigomezyo M.

2016-01-01

The 1 min resolution solar wind and geomagnetic data obtained from seven equatorial low-latitude stations during four extreme geomagnetic activities are used to investigate the extreme dB/dt perturbations. Simulations of the magnetospheric-ionospheric environment were also performed for varying amplitudes of the solar proton density. Simulations were carried out using the Space Weather Modeling Framework BATS-R-US + RCM model. Both the observations and simulations demonstrated that the appearance time of the extreme dB/dt perturbations at equatorial stations during disturbed conditions is instantaneous and equitable to those experienced at auroral regions yielding time lags of the order of a few seconds. We find that the rapid dB/dt enhancements are caused by the electric field of magnetospheric current origin, which is being enhanced by solar wind density and ram pressure variations and boosted by the equatorial electro jet. Our results indicate that the solar wind proton density variations could be used as a predictor of extreme dB/dt enhancement at equatorial latitudes.

The interplanetary and magnetospheric causes of extreme dB/dt at equatorial locations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adebesin, Babatunde O.; Pulkkinen, Antti; Ngwira, Chigomezyo M.

2016-11-01

The 1 min resolution solar wind and geomagnetic data obtained from seven equatorial/low-latitude stations during four extreme geomagnetic activities are used to investigate the extreme dB/dt perturbations. Simulations of the magnetospheric-ionospheric environment were also performed for varying amplitudes of the solar proton density. Simulations were carried out using the Space Weather Modeling Framework/BATS-R-US + RCM model. Both the observations and simulations demonstrated that the appearance time of the extreme dB/dt perturbations at equatorial stations during disturbed conditions is instantaneous and equitable to those experienced at auroral regions yielding time lags of the order of a few seconds. We find that the rapid dB/dt enhancements are caused by the electric field of magnetospheric current origin, which is being enhanced by solar wind density and ram pressure variations and boosted by the equatorial electrojet. Our results indicate that the solar wind proton density variations could be used as a predictor of extreme dB/dt enhancement at equatorial latitudes.

Floating Offshore WTG Integrated Load Analysis & Optimization Employing a Tuned Mass Damper

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rodriguez Tsouroukdissian, Arturo; Lackner, Matt; Cross-Whiter, John

2015-09-25

Floating offshore wind turbines (FOWTs) present complex design challenges due to the coupled dynamics of the platform motion, mooring system, and turbine control systems, in response to wind and wave loading. This can lead to higher extreme and fatigue loads than a comparable fixed bottom or onshore system. Previous research[1] has shown the potential to reduced extreme and fatigue loads on FOWT using tuned mass dampers (TMD) for structural control. This project aims to reduce maximum loads using passive TMDs located at the tower top during extreme storm events, when grid supplied power for other controls systems may not bemore » available. The Alstom Haliade 6MW wind turbine is modelled on the Glosten Pelastar tension-leg platform (TLP). The primary objectives of this project are to provide a preliminary assessment of the load reduction potential of passive TMDs on real wind turbine and TLP designs.« less

Wind speed perception and risk.

PubMed

Agdas, Duzgun; Webster, Gregory D; Masters, Forrest J

2012-01-01

How accurately do people perceive extreme wind speeds and how does that perception affect the perceived risk? Prior research on human-wind interaction has focused on comfort levels in urban settings or knock-down thresholds. No systematic experimental research has attempted to assess people's ability to estimate extreme wind speeds and perceptions of their associated risks. We exposed 76 people to 10, 20, 30, 40, 50, and 60 mph (4.5, 8.9, 13.4, 17.9, 22.3, and 26.8 m/s) winds in randomized orders and asked them to estimate wind speed and the corresponding risk they felt. Multilevel modeling showed that people were accurate at lower wind speeds but overestimated wind speeds at higher levels. Wind speed perceptions mediated the direct relationship between actual wind speeds and perceptions of risk (i.e., the greater the perceived wind speed, the greater the perceived risk). The number of tropical cyclones people had experienced moderated the strength of the actual-perceived wind speed relationship; consequently, mediation was stronger for people who had experienced fewer storms. These findings provide a clearer understanding of wind and risk perception, which can aid development of public policy solutions toward communicating the severity and risks associated with natural disasters.

Winds from cool stars

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dupree, A. K.

1995-01-01

Spectral observations of cool stars enable study of the presence and character of winds and the mass loss process in objects with effective temperatures, gravities, and atmospheric compositions which differ from that of the Sun. A wealth of recent spectroscopic measurements from the Hubble Space Telescope, and the Extreme Ultraviolet Explorer complement high resolution ground-based measures in the optical and infrared spectral regions. Such observations when combined with realistic semi-empirical atmospheric modeling allow us to estimate the physical conditions in the atmospheres and winds of many classes of cool stars. Line profiles support turbulent heating and mass motions. In low gravity stars, evidence is found for relatively fast (approximately 200 km s(exp -1)), warm winds with rapid acceleration occurring in the chromosphere. In some cases outflows commensurate with stellar escape velocities are present. Our current understanding of cool star winds will be reviewed including the implications of stellar observations for identification of atmospheric heating and acceleration processes.

Determining hydroclimatic extreme events over the south-central Andes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

RamezaniZiarani, Maryam; Bookhagen, Bodo; Schmidt, Torsten; Wickert, Jens; de la Torre, Alejandro; Volkholz, Jan

2017-04-01

The south-central Andes in NW Argentina are characterized by a strong rainfall asymmetry. In the east-west direction exists one of the steepest rainfall gradients on Earth, resulting from the large topographic differences in this region. In addition, in the north-south direction the rainfall intensity varies as the climatic regime shifts from the tropical central Andes to the subtropical south-central Andes. In this study, we investigate hydroclimatic extreme events over the south-central Andes using ERA-Interim reanalysis data of the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts), the high resolution regional climate model (COSMO-CLM) data and TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) data. We divide the area in three different study regions based on elevation: The high-elevation Altiplano-Puna plateau, an intermediate area characterized by intramontane basins, and the foreland area. We analyze the correlations between climatic variables, such as specific humidity, zonal wind component, meridional wind component and extreme rainfall events in all three domains. The results show that there is a high positive temporal correlation between extreme rainfall events (90th and 99th percentile rainfall) and extreme specific humidity events (90th and 99th percentile specific humidity). In addition, the temporal variations analysis represents a trend of increasing specific humidity with time during time period (1994-2013) over the Altiplano-Puna plateau which is in agreement with rainfall trend. Regarding zonal winds, our results indicate that 99th percentile rainfall events over the Altiplano-Puna plateau coincide temporally with strong easterly winds from intermountain and foreland regions in the east. In addition, the results regarding the meridional wind component represent strong northerly winds in the foreland region coincide temporally with 99th percentile rainfall over the Altiplano-Puna plateau.

Extreme Winds in the Pampa del Castillo Plateau, Patagonia, Argentina, with Reference to Wind Farm Settlement.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Labraga, Juan C.

1994-01-01

Wind farm settlement in Argentina is likely to be initiated in the extended and uniform Pampa del Castillo tablelands (5100 km2) in central cast Patagonia, due to its suitable wind regime and local economic factors. The magnitude of these investments requires not only a detailed wind energy assessment and optimum site selection but also a comprehensive evaluation of the extreme winds experienced in the region.Statistical results, with emphasis on severe winds, of two regional programs of one-year observations at four levels above the ground are presented in this paper. The highest frequencies of hourly mean wind velocities above 40, 60, and 80 km h1 are observed during November and December. The spring power spectrum shows a considerable amount of energy in components with a periodicity ranging from 2.5 to 4 days. Severe wind episodes are usually related to the displacement of low pressure systems from the Atlantic to the Pacific Ocean through the Drake Passage with a periodicity consistent with spectral results. The highest hourly mean wind speed registered in each experimental period (at 60 m AGL) is about 25 m s1. The estimated modal value of the theoretical probability distribution of annual extreme values is in good agreement with observed values. The annual peak gust for an averaging time of 240 s is about 27 m s. The gust factor was computed for different averaging intervals and compared with empirical formulations. Its variation with height and time of year was also analyzed. The general form of the vertical wind profile and its dependence on stability conditions was characterized and compared with that of typical episodes of severe winds.

Molecular Gas in Obscured and Extremely Red Quasars at z ˜ 2.5

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alexandroff, Rachael; Zakamska, Nadia; Hamann, Fred; Greene, Jenny; Rahman, Mubdi

2018-01-01

Quasar feedback is a key element of modern galaxy evolution theory. During powerful episodes of feedback, quasar-driven winds are suspected of removing large amounts of molecular gas from the host galaxy, thus limiting supplies for star formation and ultimately curtailing the maximum mass of galaxies. Here we present Karl A. Jansky Very Large Array (VLA) observations of the CO(1-0) transition in 11 powerful obscured and extremely red quasars (ERQs) at z~2.5. Previous observations have shown that several of these targets display signatures of powerful quasar-driven winds in their ionized gas. Molecular emission is not detected in a single object, whether kinematically disturbed due to a quasar wind or in equilibrium with the host galaxy and neither is molecular gas detected in a combined stack of all objects (equivalent to an exposure time of over 10 hours with the VLA). This observation is in contrast with the previous suggestions that such objects should occupy gas-rich, extremely star-forming galaxies. Possible explanations include a paucity of molecular gas or an excess of high- excitation molecular gas, both of which could be the results of quasar feedback. In the radio continuum, we detect an average point-like (< 5 kpc) emission with luminosity νLν[33 GHz]=2.2 x 1042 erg s-1, consistent with optically-thin (α ≈ -1.0) synchrotron with some possible contribution from thermal free-free emission. The continuum radio emission of these radio-intermediate objects may be a bi-product of radiatively driven winds or may be due to weak jets confined to the host galaxy.

Wind Power Reliability Research | Wind | NREL

Science.gov Websites

Reliability Collaborative fact sheet. Wind Turbine Blade Reliability Wind turbine blade failures are an extremely rare occurrence, but when they do happen, the results can be catastrophic. For this reason, blade manufacturers require tests of blade properties, static mechanical tests, and fatigue tests to certify wind

Design guidelines for wind-resistant structures

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

McDonald, J.R.; Mehta, K.C.; Minor, J.E.

1975-06-01

The purpose of this document is to prescribe criteria and to provide guidance for professional personnel who are involved in the design and evaluation of buildings and structures to resist tornadoes and extreme winds at the Oak Ridge, Tennessee, Portsmouth, Ohio, and Paducah, Kentucky, Plant Sites. The scope of the document covers loads due to extreme winds and tornadoes. Other loading conditions such as dead, live, or earthquake loads shall be considered as prescribed by the Union Carbide Corporation. In Section II the method for determining the maximum design windspeed for any specified level of risk is described. The straightmore » wind and tornado parameters are then deduced from the value of maximum design windspeed. The three types of tornado and extreme wind loads (aerodynamic, atmospheric pressure change and missiles) are treated in Sections III, IV, and V, respectively. Appropriate load combinations are defined in Section VI. The final section contains several examples showing how the design guidelines are used to determine appropriate design wind pressures. A description of the computer program used to predict missile accelerations, velocities and trajectories is contained in Appendix A. Additional design examples are provided in Appendix B.« less

Are the current thresholds, indicators, and time window for cold warning effective enough to protect cardiovascular health?

PubMed

Lin, Shao; Lawrence, Wayne R; Lin, Ziqiang; DiRienzo, Stephen; Lipton, Kevin; Dong, Guang-Hui; Leung, Ricky; Lauper, Ursula; Nasca, Philip; Stuart, Neil

2018-10-15

More extreme cold weather and larger weather variations have raised concerns regarding their effects on public health. Although prior studies assessed the effects of cold air temperature on health, especially mortality, limited studies evaluated wind chill temperatures on morbidity, and health effects under the current cold warning threshold. This study identified the thresholds, lag periods, and best indicators of extreme cold on cardiovascular disease (CVD) by comparing effects of wind chill temperatures and cold air temperatures on CVD emergency department (ED) visits in winter and winter transition months. Information was collected on 662,625 CVD ED visits from statewide hospital discharge dataset in New York State. Meteorological factors, including air temperature, wind speed, and barometric pressure were collected from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. A case-crossover approach was used to assess the extreme cold-CVD relationship in winter (December-February) and transition months (November and March) after controlling for PM 2.5 . Conditional logistic regression models were employed to analyze the association between cold weather factors and CVD ED visits. We observed CVD effects occurred when wind chill temperatures were as high as -3.8 °C (25 °F), warmer than current wind chill warning standard (≤-28.8 °C or ≤-20 °F). Wind chill temperature was a more sensitive indicator of CVD ED visits during winter with temperatures ≤ -3.8 °C (25 °F) with delay effect (lag 6); however, air temperature was better during transition months for temperatures ≤ 7.2 °C (45 °F) at earlier lag days (1-3). Among all CVD subtypes, hypertension ED visit had the strongest negative association with both wind chill temperature and air temperature. This study recommends modifying the current cold warning temperature threshold given larger proportions of CVD cases are occurring at considerably higher temperatures than the current criteria. We also recommend issuing cold warnings in winter transitional months. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Estimating return periods of extreme values from relatively short time series of winds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jonasson, Kristjan; Agustsson, Halfdan; Rognvaldsson, Olafur; Arfeuille, Gilles

2013-04-01

An important factor for determining the prospect of individual wind farm sites is the frequency of extreme winds at hub height. Here, extreme winds are defined as the value of the highest 10 minutes averaged wind speed with a 50 year return period, i.e. annual exceeding probability of 2% (Rodrigo, 2010). A frequently applied method to estimate winds in the lowest few hundred meters above ground is to extrapolate observed 10-meter winds logarithmically to higher altitudes. Recent study by Drechsel et al. (2012) showed however that this methodology is not as accurate as interpolating simulated results from the global ECMWF numerical weather prediction (NWP) model to the desired height. Observations of persistent low level jets near Colima in SW-Mexico also show that the logarithmic approach can give highly inaccurate results for some regions (Arfeuille et al., 2012). To address these shortcomings of limited, and/or poorly representative, observations and extrapolations of winds one can use NWP models to dynamically scale down relatively coarse resolution atmospheric analysis. In the case of limited computing resources one has typically to make a compromise between spatial resolution and the duration of the simulated period, both of which can limit the quality of the wind farm siting. A common method to estimate maximum winds is to fit an extreme value distribution (e.g. Gumbel, gev or Pareto) to the maximum values of each year of available data, or the tail of these values. If data are only available for a short period, e.g. 10 or 15 years, then this will give a rather inaccurate estimate. It is possible to deal with this problem by utilizing monthly or weekly maxima, but this introduces new problems: seasonal variation, autocorrelation of neighboring values, and increased discrepancy between data and fitted distribution. We introduce a new method to estimate return periods of extreme values of winds at hub height from relatively short time series of winds, simulated at a high spatial resolution. REFERENCES Arfeuille, Gilles J. M., A. L. Quintanilla, L. Zizumbo, and F. C. Viesca, 2012. Wind Resource Assessment in a Tropical Region with Complex Terrain using SODAR and a Meteorological Tower Network to Measure Low Level Jets and Boundary Layer Conditions. 15th AMS Conference on Mountain Meteorology, Steam boat Spring, Colorado, USA, August 2012. Available on-line: https://ams.confex.com/ams/15MountMet/webprogram/Manuscript/Paper210184/ARFEUILLLE_etal_15MountMet Conf_Aug2012.pdf Drechsel S., G. J. Mayr, J. W. Messner, and R. Stauffer, 2012: Wind Speeds at Heights Crucial for Wind Energy: Measurements and Verification of Forecasts. J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol., 51, 1602-1617. Rodrigo, J. S., 2010. State-of-the-Art of Wind Resource Assessment. CENER National Renewable Energy Center, Sarriguren, Spain. Available on-line: http://www.waudit-itn.eu/download.php?id=103&parent=79

Steps towards a consistent Climate Forecast System Reanalysis wave hindcast (1979-2016)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stopa, Justin E.; Ardhuin, Fabrice; Huchet, Marion; Accensi, Mickael

2017-04-01

Surface gravity waves are being increasingly recognized as playing an important role within the climate system. Wave hindcasts and reanalysis products of long time series (>30 years) have been instrumental in understanding and describing the wave climate for the past several decades and have allowed a better understanding of extreme waves and inter-annual variability. Wave hindcasts have the advantage of covering the oceans in higher space-time resolution than possible with conventional observations from satellites and buoys. Wave reanalysis systems like ECWMF's ERA-Interim directly included a wave model that is coupled to the ocean and atmosphere, otherwise reanalysis wind fields are used to drive a wave model to reproduce the wave field in long time series. The ERA Interim dataset is consistent in time, but cannot adequately resolve extreme waves. On the other hand, the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFSR) wind field better resolves the extreme wind speeds, but suffers from discontinuous features in time which are due to the quantity and quality of the remote sensing data incorporated into the product. Therefore, a consistent hindcast that resolves the extreme waves still alludes us limiting our understanding of the wave climate. In this study, we systematically correct the CFSR wind field to reproduce a homogeneous wave field in time. To verify the homogeneity of our hindcast we compute error metrics on a monthly basis using the observations from a merged altimeter wave database which has been calibrated and quality controlled from 1985-2016. Before 1985 only few wave observations exist and are limited to a select number of wave buoys mostly in the North Hemisphere. Therefore we supplement our wave observations with seismic data which responds to nonlinear wave interactions created by opposing waves with nearly equal wavenumbers. Within the CFSR wave hindcast, we find both spatial and temporal discontinuities in the error metrics. The Southern Hemisphere often has wind speed biases larger than the Northern Hemisphere and we propose a simple correction to reduce these features by applying a taper shaped by a half-Hanning window. The discontinuous features in time are corrected by scaling the entire wind field by percentages ranging typically ranging from 1-3%. Our analysis is performed on monthly time series and we expect the monthly statistics to be more adequate for climate studies.

Predicting Near-surface Winds with WindNinja for Wind Energy Applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wagenbrenner, N. S.; Forthofer, J.; Shannon, K.; Butler, B.

2016-12-01

WindNinja is a high-resolution diagnostic wind model widely used by operational wildland fire managers to predict how near-surface winds may influence fire behavior. Many of the features which have made WindNinja successful for wildland fire are also important for wind energy applications. Some of these features include flexible runtime options which allow the user to initialize the model with coarser scale weather model forecasts, sparse weather station observations, or a simple domain-average wind for what-if scenarios; built-in data fetchers for required model inputs, including gridded terrain and vegetation data and operational weather model forecasts; relatively fast runtimes on simple hardware; an extremely user-friendly interface; and a number of output format options, including KMZ files for viewing in Google Earth and GeoPDFs which can be viewed in a GIS. The recent addition of a conservation of mass and momentum solver based on OpenFOAM libraries further increases the utility of WindNinja to modelers in the wind energy sector interested not just in mean wind predictions, but also in turbulence metrics. Here we provide an evaluation of WindNinja forecasts based on (1) operational weather model forecasts and (2) weather station observations provided by the MesoWest API. We also compare the high-resolution WindNinja forecasts to the coarser operational weather model forecasts. For this work we will use the High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model and the North American Mesoscale (NAM) model. Forecasts will be evaluated with data collected in the Birch Creek valley of eastern Idaho, USA between June-October 2013. Near-surface wind, turbulence data, and vertical wind and temperature profiles were collected at very high spatial resolution during this field campaign specifically for use in evaluating high-resolution wind models like WindNinja. This work demonstrates the ability of WindNinja to generate very high-resolution wind forecasts for wind energy applications and evaluates the forecasts produced by two different initialization methods with data collected in a broad valley surrounded by complex terrain.

Development of a design basis tornado and structural design criteria for Lawrence Livermore Laboratory's Site 300

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

McDonald, J.R.; Minor, J.E.; Mehta, K.C.

1975-11-01

Criteria are prescribed and guidance is provided for professional personnel who are involved with the evaluation of existing buildings and facilities at Site 300 near Livermore, California to resist the possible effects of extreme winds and tornadoes. The development of parameters for the effects of tornadoes and extreme winds and guidelines for evaluation and design of structures are presented. The investigations conducted are summarized and the techniques used for arriving at the combined tornado and extreme wind risk model are discussed. The guidelines for structural design methods for calculating pressure distributions on walls and roofs of structures and methods formore » accommodating impact loads from missiles are also presented. (auth)« less

Validation of China-wide interpolated daily climate variables from 1960 to 2011

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuan, Wenping; Xu, Bing; Chen, Zhuoqi; Xia, Jiangzhou; Xu, Wenfang; Chen, Yang; Wu, Xiaoxu; Fu, Yang

2015-02-01

Temporally and spatially continuous meteorological variables are increasingly in demand to support many different types of applications related to climate studies. Using measurements from 600 climate stations, a thin-plate spline method was applied to generate daily gridded climate datasets for mean air temperature, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, relative humidity, sunshine duration, wind speed, atmospheric pressure, and precipitation over China for the period 1961-2011. A comprehensive evaluation of interpolated climate was conducted at 150 independent validation sites. The results showed superior performance for most of the estimated variables. Except for wind speed, determination coefficients ( R 2) varied from 0.65 to 0.90, and interpolations showed high consistency with observations. Most of the estimated climate variables showed relatively consistent accuracy among all seasons according to the root mean square error, R 2, and relative predictive error. The interpolated data correctly predicted the occurrence of daily precipitation at validation sites with an accuracy of 83 %. Moreover, the interpolation data successfully explained the interannual variability trend for the eight meteorological variables at most validation sites. Consistent interannual variability trends were observed at 66-95 % of the sites for the eight meteorological variables. Accuracy in distinguishing extreme weather events differed substantially among the meteorological variables. The interpolated data identified extreme events for the three temperature variables, relative humidity, and sunshine duration with an accuracy ranging from 63 to 77 %. However, for wind speed, air pressure, and precipitation, the interpolation model correctly identified only 41, 48, and 58 % of extreme events, respectively. The validation indicates that the interpolations can be applied with high confidence for the three temperatures variables, as well as relative humidity and sunshine duration based on the performance of these variables in estimating daily variations, interannual variability, and extreme events. Although longitude, latitude, and elevation data are included in the model, additional information, such as topography and cloud cover, should be integrated into the interpolation algorithm to improve performance in estimating wind speed, atmospheric pressure, and precipitation.

Sensitivity Analysis of Expected Wind Extremes over the Northwestern Sahara and High Atlas Region.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garcia-Bustamante, E.; González-Rouco, F. J.; Navarro, J.

2017-12-01

A robust statistical framework in the scientific literature allows for the estimation of probabilities of occurrence of severe wind speeds and wind gusts, but does not prevent however from large uncertainties associated with the particular numerical estimates. An analysis of such uncertainties is thus required. A large portion of this uncertainty arises from the fact that historical observations are inherently shorter that the timescales of interest for the analysis of return periods. Additional uncertainties stem from the different choices of probability distributions and other aspects related to methodological issues or physical processes involved. The present study is focused on historical observations over the Ouarzazate Valley (Morocco) and in a high-resolution regional simulation of the wind in the area of interest. The aim is to provide extreme wind speed and wind gust return values and confidence ranges based on a systematic sampling of the uncertainty space for return periods up to 120 years.

Wind extremes in the North Sea basin under climate change: an ensemble study of 12 CMIP5 GCMs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Winter, R.; Ruessink, G.; Sterl, A.

2012-12-01

Coastal safety may be influenced by climate change, as changes in extreme surge levels and wave extremes may increase the vulnerability of dunes and other coastal defenses. In the North Sea, an area already prone to severe flooding, these high surge levels and waves are generated by severe wind speeds during storm events. As a result of the geometry of the North Sea, not only the maximum wind speed is relevant, but also wind direction. Analyzing changes in a changing climate implies that several uncertainties need to be taken into account. First, there is the uncertainty in climate experiments, which represents the possible development of the emission of greenhouse gases. Second, there is uncertainty between the climate models that are used to analyze the effect of different climate experiments. The third uncertainty is the natural variability of the climate. When this system variability is large, small trends will be difficult to detect. The natural variability results in statistical uncertainty, especially for events with high return values. We addressed the first two types of uncertainties for extreme wind conditions in the North Sea using 12 CMIP5 GCMs. To evaluate the differences between the climate experiments, two climate experiments (rcp4.5 and rcp8.5) from 2050-2100 are compared with historical runs, running from 1950-2000. Rcp4.5 is considered to be a middle climate experiment and rcp8.5 represents high-end climate scenarios. The projections of the 12 GCMs for a given scenario illustrate model uncertainty. We focus on the North Sea basin, because changes in wind conditions could have a large impact on safety of the densely populated North Sea coast, an area that has already a high exposure to flooding. Our results show that, consistent with ERA-Interim results, the annual maximum wind speed in the historical run demonstrates large interannual variability. For the North Sea, the annual maximum wind speed is not projected to change in either rcp4.5 or rcp8.5. In fact, the differences in the 12 GCMs are larger than the difference between the three experiments. Furthermore, our results show that, the variation in direction of annual maximum wind speed is large and this precludes a firm statement on climate-change induced changes in these directions. Nonetheless, most models indicate a decrease in annual maximum wind speed from south-eastern directions and an increase from south-western and western directions. This might be caused by a poleward shift of the storm track. The amount of wind from north-west and north-north-west, wind directions that are responsible for the development of extreme storm surges in the southern part of the North Sea, are not projected to change. However, North Sea coasts that have the longest fetch for western direction, e.g. the German Bight, may encounter more often high storm surge levels and extreme waves when the annual maximum wind will indeed be more often from western direction.

Wind Speed Perception and Risk

PubMed Central

Agdas, Duzgun; Webster, Gregory D.; Masters, Forrest J.

2012-01-01

Background How accurately do people perceive extreme wind speeds and how does that perception affect the perceived risk? Prior research on human–wind interaction has focused on comfort levels in urban settings or knock-down thresholds. No systematic experimental research has attempted to assess people's ability to estimate extreme wind speeds and perceptions of their associated risks. Method We exposed 76 people to 10, 20, 30, 40, 50, and 60 mph (4.5, 8.9, 13.4, 17.9, 22.3, and 26.8 m/s) winds in randomized orders and asked them to estimate wind speed and the corresponding risk they felt. Results Multilevel modeling showed that people were accurate at lower wind speeds but overestimated wind speeds at higher levels. Wind speed perceptions mediated the direct relationship between actual wind speeds and perceptions of risk (i.e., the greater the perceived wind speed, the greater the perceived risk). The number of tropical cyclones people had experienced moderated the strength of the actual–perceived wind speed relationship; consequently, mediation was stronger for people who had experienced fewer storms. Conclusion These findings provide a clearer understanding of wind and risk perception, which can aid development of public policy solutions toward communicating the severity and risks associated with natural disasters. PMID:23226230

An extreme wind erosion event of the fresh Eyjafjallajökull 2010 volcanic ash

PubMed Central

Arnalds, Olafur; Thorarinsdottir, Elin Fjola; Thorsson, Johann; Waldhauserova, Pavla Dagsson; Agustsdottir, Anna Maria

2013-01-01

Volcanic eruptions can generate widespread deposits of ash that are subsequently subjected to erosive forces which causes detrimental effects on ecosystems. We measured wind erosion of the freshly deposited Eyjafjallajökull ash at a field site the first summer after the 2010 eruption. Over 30 wind erosion events occurred (June-October) at wind speeds > 10 m s−1 in each storm with gusts up to 38.7 m s−1. Surface transport over one m wide transect (surface to 150 cm height) reached > 11,800 kg m−1 during the most intense storm event with a rate of 1,440 kg m−1 hr−1 for about 6½ hrs. This storm is among the most extreme wind erosion events recorded on Earth. The Eyjafjallajökull wind erosion storms caused dust emissions extending several hundred km from the volcano affecting both air quality and ecosystems showing how wind erosion of freshly deposited ash prolongs impacts of volcanic eruptions. PMID:23409248

An extreme wind erosion event of the fresh Eyjafjallajökull 2010 volcanic ash.

PubMed

Arnalds, Olafur; Thorarinsdottir, Elin Fjola; Thorsson, Johann; Waldhauserova, Pavla Dagsson; Agustsdottir, Anna Maria

2013-01-01

Volcanic eruptions can generate widespread deposits of ash that are subsequently subjected to erosive forces which causes detrimental effects on ecosystems. We measured wind erosion of the freshly deposited Eyjafjallajökull ash at a field site the first summer after the 2010 eruption. Over 30 wind erosion events occurred (June-October) at wind speeds > 10 m s(-1) in each storm with gusts up to 38.7 m s(-1). Surface transport over one m wide transect (surface to 150 cm height) reached > 11,800 kg m(-1) during the most intense storm event with a rate of 1,440 kg m(-1) hr(-1) for about 6½ hrs. This storm is among the most extreme wind erosion events recorded on Earth. The Eyjafjallajökull wind erosion storms caused dust emissions extending several hundred km from the volcano affecting both air quality and ecosystems showing how wind erosion of freshly deposited ash prolongs impacts of volcanic eruptions.

The relationship between extreme weather events and crop losses in central Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lai, Li-Wei

2017-09-01

The frequency of extreme weather events, which cause severe crop losses, is increasing. This study investigates the relationship between crop losses and extreme weather events in central Taiwan from 2003 to 2015 and determines the main factors influencing crop losses. Data regarding the crop loss area and meteorological information were obtained from government agencies. The crops were categorised into the following five groups: `grains', `vegetables', `fruits', `flowers' and `other crops'. The extreme weather events and their synoptic weather patterns were categorised into six and five groups, respectively. The data were analysed using the z score, correlation coefficient and stepwise regression model. The results show that typhoons had the highest frequency of all extreme weather events (58.3%). The largest crop loss area (4.09%) was caused by two typhoons and foehn wind in succession. Extreme wind speed coupled with heavy rainfall is an important factor affecting the losses in the grain and vegetable groups. Extreme wind speed is a common variable that affects the loss of `grains', `vegetables', `fruits' and `flowers'. Consecutive extreme weather events caused greater crop losses than individual events. Crops with long production times suffered greater losses than those with short production times. This suggests that crops with physical structures that can be easily damaged and long production times would benefit from protected cultivation to maintain food security.

Extreme bottom velocities induced by wind wave and currents in the Gulf of Gdańsk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cieślikiewicz, Witold; Dudkowska, Aleksandra; Gic-Grusza, Gabriela; Jędrasik, Jan

2017-11-01

The principal goal of this study is to get some preliminary insights about the intensity of water movement generated by wind waves, and due to the currents in the bottom waters of Gulf of Gdańsk, during severe storms. The Gulf of Gdańsk is located in the southern Baltic Sea. This paper presents the results of analysis of wave and current-induced velocities during extreme wind conditions, which are determined based on long-term historical records. The bottom velocity fields originated from wind wave and wind currents, during analysed extreme wind events, are computed independently of each other. The long-term wind wave parameters for the Baltic Sea region are derived from the 44-year hindcast wave database generated in the framework of the project HIPOCAS funded by the European Union. The output from the numerical wave model WAM provides the boundary conditions for the model SWAN operating in high-resolution grid covering the area of the Gulf of Gdańsk. Wind current velocities are calculated with the M3D hydrodynamic model developed in the Institute of Oceanography of the University of Gdańsk based on the POM model. The three dimensional current fields together with trajectories of particle tracers spreading out of bottom boundary layer are modelled, and the calculated fields of bottom velocities are presented in the form of 2D maps. During northerly winds, causing in the Gulf of Gdańsk extreme waves and most significant wind-driven circulation, the wave-induced bottom velocities are greater than velocities due to currents. The current velocities in the bottom layer appeared to be smaller by an order of magnitude than the wave-induced bottom orbital velocities. Namely, during most severe northerly storms analysed, current bottom velocities ranged about 0.1-0.15 m/s, while the root mean square of wave-induced near-seabed velocities reached maximum values of up to 1.4 m/s in the southern part of Gulf of Gdańsk.

Uncertainty and Risk Assessment in the Design Process for Wind

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Damiani, Rick R.

This report summarizes the concepts and opinions that emerged from an initial study on the subject of uncertainty in wind design that included expert elicitation during a workshop held at the National Wind Technology Center at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory July 12-13, 2016. In this paper, five major categories of uncertainties are identified. The first category is associated with direct impacts on turbine loads, (i.e., the inflow including extreme events, aero-hydro-servo-elastic response, soil-structure inter- action, and load extrapolation). The second category encompasses material behavior and strength. Site suitability and due-diligence aspects pertain to the third category. Calibration of partialmore » safety factors and optimal reliability levels make up the fourth one. And last but not least, is the category associated with uncertainties in computational modeling. The main sections of this paper follow this organization.« less

The fastest disk wind in APM 08279+5255 and its acceleration mechanism

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hagino, K.; Done, C.; Odaka, H.; Watanabe, S.; Takahashi, T.

2017-10-01

The luminous high-z quasar APM 08279+5255 has the most powerful ultra-fast outflow (UFO), which is claimed as the fastest disk wind with velocity of 0.7c. This extreme velocity is very important for constraining the physical mechanism to launch the UFOs because only magnetic driving mechanism can accelerate the winds up to velocities above 0.3c, at which radiation drag effects prevent radiation driving. We reanalyze all the observed data of this source with our spectral model of highly ionized disk winds constructed by 3D Monte Carlo radiation transfer simulation. This was applied to an archetypal disk wind in PDS 456, and successfully reproduced all the spectra observed with Suzaku in spite of their strong spectral variability. By applying our spectral model to APM 08279+5255, all the spectra observed with XMM-Newton, Chandra and Suzaku are explained with less extreme outflow velocities of 0.1-0.2c. In our analysis, the high energy absorption features, which were previously interpreted as absorption lines with extremely fast velocities, are produced by iron-K absorption edges from moderately ionized clumps embedded in the highly ionized wind. We also investigate the broadband SED, and find that it is X-ray weak and UV bright, which prefers the radiation driving.

Review of the Need for a Large-scale Test Facility for Research on the Effects of Extreme Winds on Structures

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

R. G. Little

1999-03-01

The Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory (INEEL), through the US Department of Energy (DOE), has proposed that a large-scale wind test facility (LSWTF) be constructed to study, in full-scale, the behavior of low-rise structures under simulated extreme wind conditions. To determine the need for, and potential benefits of, such a facility, the Idaho Operations Office of the DOE requested that the National Research Council (NRC) perform an independent assessment of the role and potential value of an LSWTF in the overall context of wind engineering research. The NRC established the Committee to Review the Need for a Large-scale Testmore » Facility for Research on the Effects of Extreme Winds on Structures, under the auspices of the Board on Infrastructure and the Constructed Environment, to perform this assessment. This report conveys the results of the committee's deliberations as well as its findings and recommendations. Data developed at large-scale would enhanced the understanding of how structures, particularly light-frame structures, are affected by extreme winds (e.g., hurricanes, tornadoes, sever thunderstorms, and other events). With a large-scale wind test facility, full-sized structures, such as site-built or manufactured housing and small commercial or industrial buildings, could be tested under a range of wind conditions in a controlled, repeatable environment. At this time, the US has no facility specifically constructed for this purpose. During the course of this study, the committee was confronted by three difficult questions: (1) does the lack of a facility equate to a need for the facility? (2) is need alone sufficient justification for the construction of a facility? and (3) would the benefits derived from information produced in an LSWTF justify the costs of producing that information? The committee's evaluation of the need and justification for an LSWTF was shaped by these realities.« less

Design and development of nautilus whorl-wind turbine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

R, Pramod; Kumar, G. B. Veeresh; Harsha, P. Sai Sri; Kumar, K. A. Udaya

2017-07-01

Our life is directly related to energy and its consumption, and the issues of energy research are extremely important and highly sensitive. Scientists and researchers attempt to accelerate solutions for wind energy generation, design parameters under the influence of novel policies adopted for energy management and the concerns for global warming and climate change. The objective of this study is to design a small wind turbine that is optimized for the constraints that come with residential use. The study is aimed at designing a wind turbine for tapping the low speed wind in urban locations. The design process includes the selection of the wind turbine type and the determination of the blade airfoil, finding the maximum drag model and manufacturing of the turbine economically. In this study, the Nautilus turbine is modeled, simulated and the characteristic curves are plotted. The cutting in wind speed for the turbine is around 1m/s. The turbine rotates in a range of 20 rpm to 500 rpm at wind speeds 1m/s to 10m/s On a below average day at noon where the wind speed are usually low the turbine recorded an rpm of 120 (average value) at 4m/s wind speeds. This study focuses on a computational fluid dynamics analysis of compressible radially outward flow.

Influence of turbulence, orientation, and site configuration on the response of buildings to extreme wind.

PubMed

Aly, Aly Mousaad

2014-01-01

Atmospheric turbulence results from the vertical movement of air, together with flow disturbances around surface obstacles which make low- and moderate-level winds extremely irregular. Recent advancements in wind engineering have led to the construction of new facilities for testing residential homes at relatively high Reynolds numbers. However, the generation of a fully developed turbulence in these facilities is challenging. The author proposed techniques for the testing of residential buildings and architectural features in flows that lack fully developed turbulence. While these methods are effective for small structures, the extension of the approach for large and flexible structures is not possible yet. The purpose of this study is to investigate the role of turbulence in the response of tall buildings to extreme winds. In addition, the paper presents a detailed analysis to investigate the influence of upstream terrain conditions, wind direction angle (orientation), and the interference effect from the surrounding on the response of high-rise buildings. The methodology presented can be followed to help decision makers to choose among innovative solutions like aerodynamic mitigation, structural member size adjustment, and/or damping enhancement, with an objective to improve the resiliency and the serviceability of buildings.

Influence of Turbulence, Orientation, and Site Configuration on the Response of Buildings to Extreme Wind

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Atmospheric turbulence results from the vertical movement of air, together with flow disturbances around surface obstacles which make low- and moderate-level winds extremely irregular. Recent advancements in wind engineering have led to the construction of new facilities for testing residential homes at relatively high Reynolds numbers. However, the generation of a fully developed turbulence in these facilities is challenging. The author proposed techniques for the testing of residential buildings and architectural features in flows that lack fully developed turbulence. While these methods are effective for small structures, the extension of the approach for large and flexible structures is not possible yet. The purpose of this study is to investigate the role of turbulence in the response of tall buildings to extreme winds. In addition, the paper presents a detailed analysis to investigate the influence of upstream terrain conditions, wind direction angle (orientation), and the interference effect from the surrounding on the response of high-rise buildings. The methodology presented can be followed to help decision makers to choose among innovative solutions like aerodynamic mitigation, structural member size adjustment, and/or damping enhancement, with an objective to improve the resiliency and the serviceability of buildings. PMID:24701140

Statistical Modeling of Extreme Values and Evidence of Presence of Dragon King (DK) in Solar Wind

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gomes, T.; Ramos, F.; Rempel, E. L.; Silva, S.; C-L Chian, A.

2017-12-01

The solar wind constitutes a nonlinear dynamical system, presenting intermittent turbulence, multifractality and chaotic dynamics. One characteristic shared by many such complex systems is the presence of extreme events, that play an important role in several Geophysical phenomena and their statistical characterization is a problem of great practical relevance. This work investigates the presence of extreme events in time series of the modulus of the interplanetary magnetic field measured by Cluster spacecraft on February 2, 2002. One of the main results is that the solar wind near the Earth's bow shock can be modeled by the Generalized Pareto (GP) and Generalized Extreme Values (GEV) distributions. Both models present a statistically significant positive shape parameter which implyies a heavy tail in the probability distribution functions and an unbounded growth in return values as return periods become too long. There is evidence that current sheets are the main responsible for positive values of the shape parameter. It is also shown that magnetic reconnection at the interface between two interplanetary magnetic flux ropes in the solar wind can be considered as Dragon Kings (DK), a class of extreme events whose formation mechanisms are fundamentally different from others. As long as magnetic reconnection can be classified as a Dragon King, there is the possibility of its identification and even its prediction. Dragon kings had previously been identified in time series of financial crashes, nuclear power generation accidents, stock market and so on. It is believed that they are associated with the occurrence of extreme events in dynamical systems at phase transition, bifurcation, crises or tipping points.

The combined risk of extreme tropical cyclone winds and storm surges along the U.S. Gulf of Mexico Coast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trepanier, J. C.; Yuan, J.; Jagger, T. H.

2017-03-01

Tropical cyclones, with their nearshore high wind speeds and deep storm surges, frequently strike the United States Gulf of Mexico coastline influencing millions of people and disrupting offshore economic activities. The combined risk of occurrence of tropical cyclone nearshore wind speeds and storm surges is assessed at 22 coastal cities throughout the United States Gulf of Mexico. The models used are extreme value copulas fitted with margins defined by the generalized Pareto distribution or combinations of Weibull, gamma, lognormal, or normal distributions. The statistical relationships between the nearshore wind speed and storm surge are provided for each coastal city prior to the copula model runs using Spearman's rank correlations. The strongest significant relationship between the nearshore wind speed and storm surge exists at Shell Beach, LA (ρ = 0.67), followed by South Padre Island, TX (ρ = 0.64). The extreme value Archimedean copula models for each city then provide return periods for specific nearshore wind speed and storm surge pairs. Of the 22 cities considered, Bay St. Louis, MS, has the shortest return period for a tropical cyclone with at least a 50 ms-1 nearshore wind speed and a 3 m surge (19.5 years, 17.1-23.5). The 90% confidence intervals are created by recalculating the return periods for a fixed set of wind speeds and surge levels using 100 samples of the model parameters. The results of this study can be utilized by policy managers and government officials concerned with coastal populations and economic activity in the Gulf of Mexico.

The winterstorm ``Vivian'' of 27 February 1990: About the meteorological development, wind forces and damage situation in the forests of Switzerland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schüepp, M.; Schiesser, H. H.; Huntrieser, H.; Scherrer, H. U.; Schmidtke, H.

1994-09-01

During the months January and February 1990 a series of severe cyclones were responsible for enormous wind-induced damage in Europe. The final of this series, on 27 February 1990, cyclone “Vivian” mainly affected the alpine valleys of Switzerland. 5 Millions m3 of timber were felled by the severe winds, a record number in this century. A complete damage survey of the deforested areas offers in combination with meteorological data an unique data set for a detailed case study of this extreme event. This paper describes the general meteorological development from the synoptic scale down to the mesoscale of Switzerland and presents a general overview of the damage situation. The main results show that a rare situation of a straight frontal zone stretching over the whole Atlantic Ocean and showing a strong gradient in temperature pointed directly toward Central-Europe. Two waves formed along this elongated polar front and deepend rapidly to depressions. The first low travelled on the southernmost trajectory of the whole storm series and affected Switzerland most. North of the Alps the prefrontal warm air was blocked to the east by the arriving coldfront and had to escape into the complex terrain of the alpine valleys. There, the stormy winds were strengthened by channelizing and “Föhn” effects. The large temperature gradient between the prefrontal and the incoming air masses induced thunderstorm activity which vortices and downdrafts might have enhanced locally. As a result most of the damaged forested areas were found between 1200 and 1600 m MSL on slopes, which were mainly exposed toward the prevailing NW-winds. A comparison of extreme wind speeds for the period 1978 1992 revealed that this event's extreme high speed of 74.5 m/s, measured at a high elevated pass station in the mountains, was exceptional. For lower elevated stations the wind speeds were high but in the range of other observed extreme values. In addition to the severe wind forces the duration of sustained high wind speed was exceptionally long during February 1990.

Analysis of Surface Charging for a Candidate Solar Sail Mission Using NASCAP-2K

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Parker, Linda Neergaard; Minow, Joseph L.; Davis, V. A.; Mandell, Myron; Gardner, Barbara

2005-01-01

The characterization of the electromagnetic interaction for a solar sail in the solar wind environment and identification of viable charging mitigation strategies are critical solar sail mission design tasks. Spacecraft charging has important implications both for science applications and for lifetime and reliability issues of sail propulsion systems. To that end, surface charging calculations of a candidate 150-meter-class solar sail spacecraft for the 0.5 AU solar polar and 1.9 AU LI solar wind environments are performed. A model of the spacecraft with candidate materials having appropriate electrical properties is constructed using Object Toolkit. The spacecraft charging analysis is performed using Nascap-2k. the NASA/AFRL sponsored spacecraft charging analysis tool. Nominal and atypical solar wind environments appropriate for the 0.5 AU and 1.0 AU missions are used to establish current collection of solar wind ions and electrons. Finally, a geostationary orbit environment case is included to demonstrate a bounding example of extreme (negative) charging of a solar sail spacecraft. Results from the charging analyses demonstrate that minimal differential potentials (and resulting threat of electrostatic discharge) occur when the spacecraft is constructed entirely of conducting materials, as anticipated from standard guidelines for mitigation of spacecraft charging issues. Examples with dielectric materials exposed to the space environment exhibit differential potentials ranging from a few volts to extreme potentials in the kilovolt range.

Analysis of Surface Charging for a Candidate Solar Sail Mission Using Nascap-2k

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Parker, Linda Neergaard; Minow, Joseph I.; Davis, Victoria; Mandell, Myron; Gardner, Barbara

2005-01-01

The characterization of the electromagnetic interaction for a solar sail in the solar wind environment and identification of viable charging mitigation strategies are critical solar sail mission design task. Spacecraft charging has important implications both for science applications and for lifetime and reliability issues of sail propulsion systems. To that end, surface charging calculations of a candidate 150-meter-class solar sail spacecraft for the 0.5 AU solar polar and 1.0 AU L1 solar wind environments are performed. A model of the spacecraft with candidate materials having appropriate electrical properties is constructed using Object Toolkit. The spacecraft charging analysis is performed using Nascap-2k, the NASA/AFRL sponsored spacecraft charging analysis tool. Nominal and atypical solar wind environments appropriate for the 0.5 AU and 1.0 AU missions are used to establish current collection of solar wind ions and electrons. Finally, a geostationary orbit environment case is included to demonstrate a bounding example of extreme (negative) charging of a solar sail spacecraft. Results from the charging analyses demonstrate that minimal differential potentials (and resulting threat of electrostatic discharge) occur when the spacecraft is constructed entirely of conducting materials, as anticipated from standard guidelines for mitigation of spacecraft charging issues. Examples with dielectric materials exposed to the space environment exhibit differential potentials ranging from a few volts to extreme potentials in the kilovolt range.

Large Scale Drivers for the Extreme Storm Season over the North Atlantic and the UK in Winter 2013-14

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wild, Simon; Befort, Daniel J.; Leckebusch, Gregor C.

2016-04-01

The British Isles experienced exceptional stormy and rainy weather conditions in winter 2013-2014 while large parts of central North America recorded near record minimum surface temperatures values. Potential drivers for these cold conditions include increasingly warm surface waters of the tropical west Pacific. It has been suggested these increasing sea surface temperatures could also be the cause for extreme weather over the Europe, particularly the UK. Testing this hypothesis, we investigate mechanisms linking the tropical west Pacific and European wind storm activity. We will firstly analyse anomaly patterns along such a potential link in winter 2013-14. Secondly, we will investigate whether these identified anomaly patterns show a strong interannual relationship in the recent past. Our results, using primarily ERA-Interim Reanalysis from 1979 to 2014, show an absolute maximum of wind storm frequency over the northeast Atlantic and the British Isles in winter 2013-14. We also find absolute minimum surface temperatures in central North America and increased convective activity over the tropical west Pacific in the same season. The winter 2013-14 was additionally characterized by anomalous warm sea surface temperatures over the subtropical northwest Atlantic. Although the interannual variability of wind storms in the northeast Atlantic and surface temperatures in North America are significantly anti-correlated, we cannot directly relate wind storm frequency with tropical west Pacific anomalies. We thus conclude that the conditions over the Pacific in winter 2013-14 were favourable but not sufficient to explain the record number of wind storms in this season. Instead, we suggest that warm north Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies in combination with cold surface temperatures over North America played a more important role for generating higher wind storm counts over the northeast Atlantic and the UK.

Extremes of Extra-tropical Storms and Drivers of Variability on Different Time Scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leckebusch, G. C.

2015-12-01

Extreme extra-tropical cyclones are highly complex dynamical systems with relevance not only for the meteorological and climatological conditions themselves, but also for impacts on different sectors of society and economy. In this presentation latest research results to severe cyclones and related wind fields from synoptic to multi-decadal and anthropogenic scales will be presented, including recent work to risk assessment of potential damages out of this natural hazard. Nevertheless, the focus is laid on the seasonal timescale and recent results to predictability and predictive skills out of different forecast suites will be discussed. In this context, three seasonal forecast suites, namely ECMWF System 3, ECMWF System 4 and Met Office HadGEM-GA3, are analysed regarding their ability to represent wintertime extra-tropical cyclone and wind storm events for the period 1992 until 2011. Two objective algorithms have been applied to 6 hourly MSLP data and 12 hourly wind speeds in 925hPa to detect cyclone and wind storm events, respectively. Results show that all model suites are able to simulate the climatological mean distribution of cyclones and wind storms. For wind storms, all model suites show positive skill in simulating the inter-annual variability over the sub-tropical Pacific. Results for the Atlantic region are more model dependent, with all models showing negative correlations over the western Atlantic. Over the eastern Atlantic/Western Europe only HadGEM-GA3 and ECMWF-S4 reveal significant positive correlations. However, it is found that results over this region are not robust in time for ECMWF-S4, as correlations drop if using 1982 until 2011 instead of 1992 until 2011. Factors of potential predictability will be discussed.

Wave-driven winds from cool stars. I - Some effects of magnetic field geometry

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hartmann, L.; Macgregor, K. B.

1982-01-01

The wave-driven wind theory of Hartmann and MacGregor (1980) is extended to include effects due to non-radial divergence of the flow. Specifically, isothermal expansion within a flow tube whose cross-sectional area increases outward faster than the square of the radius near the stellar surface is considered. It is found that the qualitative conclusions of Hartmann and MacGregor concerning the physical properties of Alfven wave-driven winds are largely unaffected. In particular, mass fluxes of similar magnitude are obtained, and wave dissipation is still necessary to produce acceptably small terminal velocities. Increasingly divergent flow geometries generally lead to higher initial wind speeds and slightly lower terminal velocities. For some cases of extremely rapid flow tube divergence, steady supersonic wind solutions which extend to infinity with vanishing gas pressure cannot be obtained. In addition, departures from spherical symmetry can cause the relative Alfven wave amplitude delta-B/B to become approximately greater than 1 within several stellar radii of the base of the wind, suggesting that nonlinear processes may contribute to the wave dissipation required by the theory.

Probing the extreme wind confinement of the most magnetic O star with COS spectroscopy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petit, Veronique

2014-10-01

We propose to obtain phase-resolved UV spectroscopy of the recently discovered magnetic O star NGC 1624-2, which has the strongest magnetic field ever detected in a O-star, by an order of magnitude. We will use the strength and variability of the UV resonance line profiles to diagnose the density, velocity, and ionization structure of NGC 1624-2's enormous magnetosphere that results from entrapment of its stellar wind by its strong, nearly dipolar magnetic field. With this gigantic magnetosphere, NGC 1624-2 represents a new regime of extreme wind confinement that will constrain models of magnetized winds and their surface mass flux properties. A detailed understanding of such winds is necessary to study the rotational braking history of magnetic O-stars, which can shed new light on the fundamental origin of magnetism in massive, hot stars.

Spatial variation in extreme winds predicts large wildfire locations in chaparral ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moritz, Max A.; Moody, Tadashi J.; Krawchuk, Meg A.; Hughes, Mimi; Hall, Alex

2010-02-01

Fire plays a crucial role in many ecosystems, and a better understanding of different controls on fire activity is needed. Here we analyze spatial variation in fire danger during episodic wind events in coastal southern California, a densely populated Mediterranean-climate region. By reconstructing almost a decade of fire weather patterns through detailed simulations of Santa Ana winds, we produced the first high-resolution map of where these hot, dry winds are consistently most severe and which areas are relatively sheltered. We also analyzed over half a century of mapped fire history in chaparral ecosystems of the region, finding that our models successfully predict where the largest wildfires are most likely to occur. There is a surprising lack of information about extreme wind patterns worldwide, and more quantitative analyses of their spatial variation will be important for effective fire management and sustainable long-term urban development on fire-prone landscapes.

Reponse dynamique des structures sous charges de vent

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gani, Ferawati

The main purpose of this research is to assemble numerical tools that allows realistic dynamic study of structures under wind loading. The availability of such numerical tools is becoming more important for the industry, following previous experiences in structural damages after extreme wind events. The methodology of the present study involves two main steps: (i) preparing the wind loading according to its spatial and temporal correlations by using digitally generated wind or real measured wind; (ii) preparing the numerical model that captures the characteristics of the real structures and respects all the necessary numerical requirements to pursue transient dynamic analyses. The thesis is presented as an ensemble of four articles written for refereed journals and conferences that showcase the contributions of the present study to the advancement of transient dynamic study of structures under wind loading, on the wind model itself (the first article) and on the application of the wind study on complex structures (the next three articles). The articles presented are as follows: (a) the evaluation of three-dimensional correlations of wind, an important issue for more precise prediction of wind loading for flexible and line-like structures, the results presented in this first article helps design engineers to choose a more suitable models to define three-dimensional wind loading; (b) the refinement of design for solar photovoltaic concentrator-tracker structure developed for utility scale, this study addressed concerns related strict operational criteria and fatigue under wind load for a large parabolic truss structure; (c) the study of guyed towers for TLs, the applicability of the static-equivalent method from the current industry documents for the design of this type of flexible TL support was questioned, a simplified method to improve the wind design was proposed; (d) the fundamental issue of nonlinear behaviour under extreme wind loading for single-degree-of-freedom systems is evaluated here, the use of real measured hurricane and winter storm have highlighted the possible interest of taking into account the ductility in the extreme wind loading design. The present research project has shown the versatility of the use of the developed wind study methodology to solve concerns related to different type of complex structures. In addition, this study proposes simplified methods that are useful for practical engineers when there is the need to solve similar problems. Key words: nonlinear, dynamic, wind, guyed tower, parabolic structure, ductility.

Global meteorological influences on the record UK rainfall of winter 2013-14

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knight, Jeff R.; Maidens, Anna; Watson, Peter A. G.; Andrews, Martin; Belcher, Stephen; Brunet, Gilbert; Fereday, David; Folland, Chris K.; Scaife, Adam A.; Slingo, Julia

2017-07-01

The UK experienced record average rainfall in winter 2013-14, leading to widespread and prolonged flooding. The immediate cause of this exceptional rainfall was a very strong and persistent cyclonic atmospheric circulation over the North East Atlantic Ocean. This was related to a very strong North Atlantic jet stream which resulted in numerous damaging wind storms. These exceptional meteorological conditions have led to renewed questions about whether anthropogenic climate change is noticeably influencing extreme weather. The regional weather pattern responsible for the extreme UK winter coincided with highly anomalous conditions across the globe. We assess the contributions from various possible remote forcing regions using sets of ocean-atmosphere model relaxation experiments, where winds and temperatures are constrained to be similar to those observed in winter 2013-14 within specified atmospheric domains. We find that influences from the tropics were likely to have played a significant role in the development of the unusual extra-tropical circulation, including a role for the tropical Atlantic sector. Additionally, a stronger and more stable stratospheric polar vortex, likely associated with a strong westerly phase of the stratospheric Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO), appears to have contributed to the extreme conditions. While intrinsic climatic variability clearly has the largest effect on the generation of extremes, results from an analysis which segregates circulation-related and residual rainfall variability suggest that emerging climate change signals made a secondary contribution to extreme rainfall in winter 2013-14.

Directional Wave Spectra Observed During Intense Tropical Cyclones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Collins, C. O.; Potter, H.; Lund, B.; Tamura, H.; Graber, H. C.

2018-02-01

Two deep-sea moorings were deployed 780 km off the coast of southern Taiwan for 4-5 months during the 2010 typhoon season. Directional wave spectra, wind speed and direction, and momentum fluxes were recorded on two Extreme Air-Sea Interaction buoys during the close passage of Severe Tropical Storm Dianmu and three tropical cyclones (TCs): Typhoon Fanapi, Super Typhoon Megi, and Typhoon Chaba. Conditions sampled include significant wave heights up to 11 m and wind speeds up to 26 m s-1. Details varied for large-scale spectral structure in frequency and direction but were mostly bimodal. The modes were generally composed of a swell system emanating from the most intense storm region and local wind-seas. The peak systems were consistently young, meaning actively forced by winds, when the storms were close. During the peaks of the most intense passages—Chaba at the northern mooring and Megi at the southern—the bimodal seas coalesced. During Chaba, the swell and wind-sea coupling directed the high frequency waves and the wind stress away from the wind direction. A spectral wave model was able reproduce many of the macrofeatures of the directional spectra.

Warm-season severe wind events in Germany

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gatzen, Christoph

2013-04-01

A 15-year data set of wind measurements was analyzed with regard to warm season severe wind gusts in Germany. For April to September of the years 1997 to 2011, 1035 wind measurements of 26 m/s or greater were found. These wind reports were associated with 268 wind events. In total, 252 convective wind events contributed to 837 (81%) of the wind reports, 16 non-convective synoptic-scale wind events contributed to 198 reports (19%). Severe wind events were found with synoptic situations characterized by rather strong mid-level flow and advancing mid-level troughs. Severe convective wind events were analyzed using radar images and classified with respect to the observed radar structure. The most important convective mode was squall lines that were associated with one third of all severe wind gusts, followed by groups, bow echo complexes, and bow echoes. Supercells and cells were not associated with many wind reports. The low contribution of isolated cells indicates that rather large-scale forcing by synoptic-scale features like fronts is important for German severe wind events. Bow echoes were found to be present for 58% of all wind reports. The movement speed of bow echoes indicated a large variation with a maximum speed of 33 m/s. Extreme wind events as well as events with more than 15 wind reports were found to be related to higher movement speeds. Concentrating on the most intense events, derechos seem to be very important to the warm season wind threat in Germany. Convective events with a path length of more than 400 km contributed to 36% of all warm-season wind gusts in this data set. Furthermore, eight of nine extreme gusts exceeding 40 m/s were recorded with derecho events.

Seasonal prediction of extreme precipitation events and frequency of rainy days over Costa Rica, Central America, using Canonical Correlation Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maldonado, T.; Alfaro, E.; Fallas-López, B.; Alvarado, L.

2013-04-01

High mountains divide Costa Rica, Central America, into two main climate regions, the Pacific and Caribbean slopes, which are lee and windward, respectively, according to the North Atlantic trade winds - the dominant wind regime. The rain over the Pacific slope has a bimodal annual cycle, having two maxima, one in May-June and the other in August-September-October (ASO), separated by the mid-summer drought in July. A first maximum of deep convection activity, and hence a first maximum of precipitation, is reached when sea surface temperature (SST) exceeds 29 °C (around May). Then, the SST decreases to around 1 °C due to diminished downwelling solar radiation and stronger easterly winds (during July and August), resulting in a decrease in deep convection activity. Such a reduction in deep convection activity allows an increase in down welling solar radiation and a slight increase in SST (about 28.5 °C) by the end of August and early September, resulting once again in an enhanced deep convection activity, and, consequently, in a second maximum of precipitation. Most of the extreme events are found during ASO. Central American National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHS) have periodic Regional Climate Outlook Fora (RCOF) to elaborate seasonal predictions. Recently, meetings after RCOF with different socioeconomic stakeholders took place to translate the probable climate impacts from predictions. From the feedback processes of these meetings has emerged that extreme event and rainy days seasonal predictions are necessary for different sectors. As is shown in this work, these predictions can be tailored using Canonical Correlation Analysis for rain during ASO, showing that extreme events and rainy days in Central America are influenced by interannual variability related to El Niño-Southern Oscillation and decadal variability associated mainly with Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. Analyzing the geographical distribution of the ASO-2010 disaster reports, we noticed that they did not necessarily agree with the geographical extreme precipitation event distribution, meaning that social variables, like population vulnerability, should be included in the extreme events impact analysis.

Cyclones and extreme windstorm events over Europe under climate change: Global and regional climate model diagnostics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leckebusch, G. C.; Ulbrich, U.

2003-04-01

More than any changes of the climate system mean state conditions, the development of extreme events may influence social, economic and legal aspects of our society. This linkage results from the impact of extreme climate events (natural hazards) on environmental systems which again are directly linked to human activities. Prominent examples from the recent past are the record breaking rainfall amounts of August 2002 in central Europe which produced widespread floodings or the wind storm Lothar of December 1999. Within the MICE (Modelling the Impact of Climate Extremes) project framework an assessment of the impact of changes in extremes will be done. The investigation is carried out for several different impact categories as agriculture, energy use and property damage. Focus is laid on the diagnostics of GCM and RCM simulations under different climate change scenarios. In this study we concentrate on extreme windstorms and their relationship to cyclone activity in the global HADCM3 as well as in the regional HADRM3 model under two climate change scenarios (SRESA2a, B2a). In order to identify cyclones we used an objective algorithm from Murry and Simmonds which was widely tested under several different conditions. A slight increase in the occurrence of systems is identified above northern parts of central Europe for both scenarios. For more severe systems (core pressure < 990 hPa) we find an increase for western Europe. Strong wind events can be defined via different percentile values of the windspeed (e.g. above the 95 percentile). By this means the relationship between strong wind events and cyclones is also investigated. For several regions (e.g. Germany, France, Spain) a shift to more deep cyclones connected with an increasing number of strong wind events is found.

Observational Simulation of Icing in Extreme Weather Conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gultepe, Ismail; Heymsfield, Andrew; Agelin-Chaab, Martin; Komar, John; Elfstrom, Garry; Baumgardner, Darrel

2017-04-01

Observations and prediction of icing in extreme weather conditions are important for aviation, transportation, and shipping applications, and icing adversely affects the economy. Icing environments can be studied either in the outdoor atmosphere or in the laboratory. There have been several aircraft based in-situ studies related to weather conditions affecting aviation operations, transportation, and marine shipping that includes icing, wind, and turbulence. However, studying severe weather conditions from aircraft observations are limited due to safety and sampling issues, instrumental uncertainties, and even the possibility of aircraft producing its own physical and dynamical effects. Remote sensing based techniques (e.g. retrieval techniques) for studying severe weather conditions represent usually a volume that cannot characterize the important scales and also represents indirect observations. Therefore, laboratory simulations of atmospheric processes can help us better understand the interactions among microphysical and dynamical processes. The Climatic Wind Tunnel (CWT) in ACE at the University of Ontario Institute of Technology (UOIT) has a large semi-open jet test chamber with flow area 7-13 m2 that can precisely control temperatures down to -40°C, and up to 250 km hr-1 wind speeds, for heavy or dry snow conditions with low visibility, similar to ones observed in the Arctic and cold climate regions, or at high altitude aeronautical conditions. In this study, the ACE CWT employed a spray nozzle array suspended in its settling chamber and fed by pressurized water, creating various particle sizes from a few microns up to mm size range. This array, together with cold temperature and high wind speed, enabled simulation of severe weather conditions, including icing, visibility, strong wind and turbulence, ice fog and frost, freezing fog, heavy snow and blizzard conditions. In this study, the test results will be summarized, and their application to aircraft icing will be provided in detail. Overall, based on these results, scientific challenges related to icing environments will be emphasized for Arctic and cold environments in future projects in the ACE CWT.

Hurricane Ike: Observations and Analysis of Coastal Change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Doran, Kara S.; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Stockdon, Hilary F.; Sallenger, Asbury H.; Serafin, Katherine A.

2009-01-01

Understanding storm-induced coastal change and forecasting these changes require knowledge of the physical processes associated with the storm and the geomorphology of the impacted coastline. The primary physical processes of interest are the wind field, storm surge, and wave climate. Not only does wind cause direct damage to structures along the coast, but it is ultimately responsible for much of the energy that is transferred to the ocean and expressed as storm surge, mean currents, and large waves. Waves and currents are the processes most responsible for moving sediments in the coastal zone during extreme storm events. Storm surge, the rise in water level due to the wind, barometric pressure, and other factors, allows both waves and currents to attack parts of the coast not normally exposed to those processes. Coastal geomorphology, including shapes of the shoreline, beaches, and dunes, is equally important to the coastal change observed during extreme storm events. Relevant geomorphic variables include sand dune elevation, beach width, shoreline position, sediment grain size, and foreshore beach slope. These variables, in addition to hydrodynamic processes, can be used to predict coastal vulnerability to storms The U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) National Assessment of Coastal Change Hazards Project (http://coastal.er.usgs.gov/hurricanes), strives to provide hazard information to those interested in the Nation's coastlines, including residents of coastal areas, government agencies responsible for coastal management, and coastal researchers. As part of the National Assessment, observations were collected to measure coastal changes associated with Hurricane Ike, which made landfall near Galveston, Texas, on September 13, 2008. Methods of observation included aerial photography and airborne topographic surveys. This report documents these data-collection efforts and presents qualitative and quantitative descriptions of hurricane-induced changes to the shoreline, beaches, dunes, and infrastructure in the region that was heavily impacted by Hurricane Ike.

A Long Expected Party — The First Stone Ceremony for the Extremely Large Telescope

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Zeeuw, T.; Comerón, F.; Tamai, R.

2017-06-01

The ceremony to seal the time capsule, signalling the beginning of construction of the dome and main telescope structure for the Extremely Large Telescope, took place at the Paranal Observatory on 26 May 2017, in the presence of the President of Chile, Michelle Bachelet and many international guests. Owing to high winds, the ceremony could not take place as planned on the levelled site on Cerro Armazones, but instead was held at the Paranal Residencia. A brief report of the event and its organisation is presented, and the welcome speech by the ESO Director General is included.

Adaptation potential of naturally ventilated barns to high temperature extremes: The OptiBarn project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Menz, Christoph

2016-04-01

Climate change interferes with various aspects of the socio-economic system. One important aspect is its influence on animal husbandry, especially dairy faming. Dairy cows are usually kept in naturally ventilated barns (NVBs) which are particular vulnerable to extreme events due to their low adaptation capabilities. An effective adaptation to high outdoor temperatures for example, is only possible under certain wind and humidity conditions. High temperature extremes are expected to increase in number and strength under climate change. To assess the impact of this change on NVBs and dairy cows also the changes in wind and humidity needs to be considered. Hence we need to consider the multivariate structure of future temperature extremes. The OptiBarn project aims to develop sustainable adaptation strategies for dairy housings under climate change for Europe, by considering the multivariate structure of high temperature extremes. In a first step we identify various multivariate high temperature extremes for three core regions in Europe. With respect to dairy cows in NVBs we will focus on the wind and humidity field during high temperature events. In a second step we will use the CORDEX-EUR-11 ensemble to evaluate the capability of the RCMs to model such events and assess their future change potential. By transferring the outdoor conditions to indoor climate and animal wellbeing the results of this assessment can be used to develop technical, architectural and animal specific adaptation strategies for high temperature extremes.

Ocean-Wave Dynamics Analysis during Hurricane Ida and Norida Using a Fully Coupled Modeling System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olabarrieta, M.; Warner, J. C.; Armstrong, B. N.

2010-12-01

Extreme storms, such as hurricanes and extratropical storms play a dominant role in shaping the beaches of the East and Gulf Coasts of the United States. Future tropical depressions will be more intense than in the present climate (Assessment Report of IPCC, 2007) and therefore coastal areas are likely to become more susceptible to their effects. The major damage caused by these extreme events is associated with the duration of the storm, storm intensity, waves, and the total water levels reached during the storm. Numerical models provide a useful approach to study the spatial and temporal distribution of these parameters. However, the correct estimation of the total water levels and wind wave heights through numerical modeling requires accurate representation of the air-sea interface dynamics. These processes are highly complex due to the variable interactions between winds, ocean waves and currents near the sea surface. In the present research we use the COAWST (Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave-Sediment Transport) modeling system (Warner et al., 2010) to address the key role of the atmosphere-ocean-wave interactions during Hurricane Ida and its posterior evolution to NorIda, November 2009. This northeastern storm was one of the most costly in the past two decades and likely in the top five of the past century. One interesting aspect of the considered period is that it includes two very different atmospheric extreme conditions, a hurricane and a northeastern storm, developed in regions with very different oceanographic characteristics. By performing a suite of numerical runs we are able to isolate the effect of the interaction terms between the atmosphere (WRF model), the ocean (ROMS model) and the wave propagation and generation model (SWAN). Special attention is given to the role of the ocean surface roughness and high resolution SST fields on the atmospheric boundary layers dynamics and consequently these effects on the wind wave generation, surface currents and storm surge. The effects of ocean currents on wind wave generation and propagations are also analyzed. The model results are compared to different data sources, including GOES satellite infrared data, JASON-1 and JASON-2 altimeter data, CODAR measurements, and wave and tidal information from the NDBC and the National Tidal Database respectively. The results identified that the inclusion of the ocean roughness on the atmospheric module greatly improves the wind intensity estimation and therefore also the wind waves and the storm surge amplitude. For example, during the passage of Ida through the Gulf of Mexico the wind speeds are reduced due to the wave induced ocean roughness, resulting in better agreement with the measured winds. During NorIda, the effect of the surface roughness changed the form and dimension of the main low pressure cell, affecting the intensity and direction of the winds. Three different ocean roughness closure models are analyzed, with the wave-age based closure model providing the best results. Ocean currents are also shown to affect wave spectral characteristics through the generation and propagation processes. Changes within 15% on the significant wave height are detected in areas affected by the main oceanic currents: the Gulf Stream and the Loop Current.

Winds, Mountains, and Wildland Fire: Improved Understanding of Coupled Atmosphere-Topography-Fire Interactions Through Large-Eddy Simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Munoz-Esparza, D.; Sauer, J.; Linn, R.

2015-12-01

Anomalous and unexpected fire behavior in complex terrain continues to result in substantial loss of property and extremely dangerous conditions for firefighting field personnel. We briefly discuss proposed hypotheses of fire interactions with atmospheric flows over complex terrain that can lead to poorly-understood and potentially catastrophic scenarios. Then, our recent results of numerical investigations via large-eddy simulation of coupled atmosphere-topography-fire phenomenology with the Los Alamos National Laboratory, HiGrad-Firetec model are presented as an example of the potential for increased understanding of these complex processes. This investigation focuses on the influence of downslope surface wind enhancement through stably stratified flow over an isolated hill, and the resulting dramatic changes in fire behavior including spread rate, and intensity. Implications with respect to counter-intuitive fire behavior and extreme fire events are discussed. This work demonstrates a tremendous opportunity to immediately create safer and more effective policy for field personnel through improved predictability of atmospheric conditions over complex terrain

A climatological description of the Savannah River Site

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hunter, C.H.

1990-05-22

This report provides a general climatological description of the Savannah River Site. The description provides both regional and local scale climatology. The regional climatology includes a general regional climatic description and presents information on occurrence frequencies of the severe meteorological phenomena that are important considerations in the design and siting of a facility. These phenomena include tornadoes, thunderstorms, hurricanes, and ice/snow storms. Occurrence probabilities given for extreme tornado and non-tornado winds are based on previous site specific studies. Local climatological conditions that are significant with respect to the impact of facility operations on the environment are described using on-site ormore » near-site meteorological data. Summaries of wind speed, wind direction, and atmospheric stability are primarily based on the most recently generated five-year set of data collected from the onsite meteorological tower network (1982--86). Temperature, humidity, and precipitation summaries include data from SRL's standard meteorological instrument shelter and the Augusta National Weather Service office at Bush Field through 1986. A brief description of the onsite meteorological monitoring program is also provided. 24 refs., 15 figs., 22 tabs.« less

Turbulent kinetic energy during wildfires in the north central and north-eastern US

Treesearch

Warren E. Heilman; Xindi Bian

2010-01-01

The suite of operational fire-weather indices available for assessing the atmospheric potential for extreme fire behaviour typically does not include indices that account for atmospheric boundary-layer turbulence or wind gustiness that can increase the erratic behaviour of fires. As a first step in testing the feasibility of using a quantitative measure of turbulence...

Design and Analysis of Wind Turbine Blade Hub using Aluminium Alloy AA 6061-T6

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ravikumar, S.; Jaswanthvenkatram, V.; Sai kumar, Y. J. N. V.; Sohaib, S. Md.

2017-05-01

This work presents the design and analysis of horizontal axis wind turbine blade hub using different material. The hub is very crucial part of the wind turbine, which experience the loads from the blades and the loads were transmitted to the main shaft. At present wind turbine is more expensive and weights more than a million pounds, with the nacelle, rotor hub and blades accounting for most of the weight. In this work Spheroidal graphite cast iron GGG 40.3 is replaced by aluminium alloy 6061-T6 to enhance the casting properties and also to improve the strength-weight ratio. This transition of material leads to reduction in weight of the wind turbine. All the loads caused by wind and extreme loads on the blades are transferred to the hub. Considering the IEC 61400-1 standard for defining extreme loads on the hub the stress and deflection were calculated on the hub by using Finite element Analysis. Result obtained from ANSYS is compared and discussed with the existing design.

WindPACT Reference Wind Turbines

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dykes, Katherine L; Rinker, Jennifer

To fully understand how loads and turbine cost scale with turbine size, it is necessary to have identical turbine models that have been scaled to different rated powers. The report presents the WindPACT baseline models, which are a series of four baseline models that were designed to facilitate investigations into the scalings of loads and turbine cost with size. The models have four different rated powers (750 kW, 1.5 MW, 3.0 MW, and 5.0 MW), and each model was designed to its specified rated power using the same design methodology. The models were originally implemented in FAST_AD, the predecessor tomore » NREL's open-source wind turbine simulator FAST, but have yet to be implemented in FAST. This report contains the specifications for all four WindPACT baseline models - including structural, aerodynamic, and control specifications - along with the inherent assumptions and equations that were used to calculate the model parameters. It is hoped that these baseline models will serve as extremely useful resources for investigations into the scalings of costs, loads, or optimization routines.« less

Euro-Atlantic winter storminess and precipitation extremes under 1.5 °C vs. 2 °C warming scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barcikowska, Monika J.; Weaver, Scott J.; Feser, Frauke; Russo, Simone; Schenk, Frederik; Stone, Dáithí A.; Wehner, Michael F.; Zahn, Matthias

2018-06-01

Severe winter storms in combination with precipitation extremes pose a serious threat to Europe. Located at the southeastern exit of the North Atlantic's storm track, European coastlines are directly exposed to impacts by high wind speeds, storm floods and coastal erosion. In this study we analyze potential changes in simulated winter storminess and extreme precipitation, which may occur under 1.5 or 2 °C warming scenarios. Here we focus on a first simulation suite of the atmospheric model CAM5 performed within the HAPPI project and evaluate how changes of the horizontal model resolution impact the results regarding atmospheric pressure, storm tracks, wind speed and precipitation extremes. The comparison of CAM5 simulations with different resolutions indicates that an increased horizontal resolution to 0.25° not only refines regional-scale information but also improves large-scale atmospheric circulation features over the Euro-Atlantic region. The zonal bias in monthly pressure at mean sea level and wind fields, which is typically found in low-resolution models, is considerably reduced. This allows us to analyze potential changes in regional- to local-scale extreme wind speeds and precipitation in a more realistic way. Our analysis of the future response for the 2 °C warming scenario generally confirms previous model simulations suggesting a poleward shift and intensification of the meridional circulation in the Euro-Atlantic region. Additional analysis suggests that this shift occurs mainly after exceeding the 1.5 °C global warming level, when the midlatitude jet stream manifests a strengthening northeastward. At the same time, this northeastern shift of the storm tracks allows an intensification and northeastern expansion of the Azores high, leading to a tendency of less precipitation across the Bay of Biscay and North Sea. Regions impacted by the strengthening of the midlatitude jet, such as the northwestern coasts of the British Isles, Scandinavia and the Norwegian Sea, and over the North Atlantic east of Newfoundland, experience an increase in the mean as well as daily and sub-daily precipitation, wind extremes and storminess, suggesting an important influence of increasing storm activity in these regions in response to global warming.

Large fully retractable telescope enclosures still closable in strong wind

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bettonvil, Felix C. M.; Hammerschlag, Robert H.; Jägers, Aswin P. L.; Sliepen, Guus

2008-07-01

Two prototypes of fully retractable enclosures with diameters of 7 and 9 m have been built for the high-resolution solar telescopes DOT (Dutch Open Telescope) and GREGOR, both located at the Canary Islands. These enclosures protect the instruments for bad weather and are fully open when the telescopes are in operation. The telescopes and enclosures also operate in hard wind. The prototypes are based on tensioned membrane between movable but stiff bows, which fold together to a ring when opened. The height of the ring is small. The prototypes already survived several storms, with often snow and ice, without any damage, including hurricane Delta with wind speeds up to 68 m/s. The enclosures can still be closed and opened with wind speeds of 20 m/s without any problems or restrictions. The DOT successfully demonstrated the open, wind-flushing concept for astronomical telescopes. It is now widely recognized that also large future telescopes benefit from wind-flushing and retractable enclosures. These telescopes require enclosures with diameters of 30 m until roughly 100 m, the largest sizes for the ELTs (Extreme Large Telescopes), which will be built in the near future. We discuss developments and required technology for the realization of these large sizes.

Extreme load alleviation using industrial implementation of active trailing edge flaps in a full design load basis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barlas, Thanasis; Pettas, Vasilis; Gertz, Drew; Madsen, Helge A.

2016-09-01

The application of active trailing edge flaps in an industrial oriented implementation is evaluated in terms of capability of alleviating design extreme loads. A flap system with basic control functionality is implemented and tested in a realistic full Design Load Basis (DLB) for the DTU 10MW Reference Wind Turbine (RWT) model and for an upscaled rotor version in DTU's aeroelastic code HAWC2. The flap system implementation shows considerable potential in reducing extreme loads in components of interest including the blades, main bearing and tower top, with no influence on fatigue loads and power performance. In addition, an individual flap controller for fatigue load reduction in above rated power conditions is also implemented and integrated in the general controller architecture. The system is shown to be a technology enabler for rotor upscaling, by combining extreme and fatigue load reduction.

Summary of Meteorological Observations, Surface (SMOS), Barbers Point, Hawaii.

DTIC Science & Technology

1984-09-01

available. Also provided are the means and standard deviations for each month and annual (all months). The extremes for a month are not printed nor...January 1964. When 90 or more of the daily observations of peak gust wind data are available for a month, the extreme is selected and printed . These...ASHEVILLE, NC PERCENTAGE FREQUENCY OF WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED (FROM HOURLY OBSERVATIONS) STATUSI STATIM usA. V U0*t5 CLA mi6 (O t ST PE ND MEAN (KNTS) 1

Perspectives on Extremes as a Climate Scientist and Farmer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grotjahn, R.

2016-12-01

The speaker is both a climate scientist whose research emphasizes climate extremes and a small farmer in the most agriculturally productive region in the world. He will share some perspectives about the future of extremes over the United States as they relate to farming. General information will be drawn from the National Climate Assessment (NCA) published in 2014. Different weather-related quantities are useful for different commodities. While plant and animal production are time-integrative, extreme events can cause lasting harm long after the event is over. Animal production, including dairy, is sensitive to combinations of high heat and humidity; lasting impacts include suspended milk production, aborted fetuses, and increased mortality. The rice crop can be devastated by the wrong combination of wind and humidity just before harvest time. Extremes at the bud break, flowering, and nascent fruit stage and greatly reduce the fruit production for the year in tree crops. Saturated soils from heavy rainfall cause major losses to some crops (for example, by fostering pathogen growth), harm water delivery systems, and disrupt timing of field activities (primarily harvest).After an overview of some general issues relating to Agriculture, some extreme weather impacts on specific commodities (primarily dairy and specialty crops, some grains) will be highlighted including quantities relevant to agriculture. Example extreme events economic impacts will be summarized. If there is interest, issues related to water availability and management will be described. Projected extreme event changes over the US will be discussed. Some conclusions will be drawn about: future impacts and possible changes to farming (some are already occurring). Perspectives will be given on including the diverse range of quantities useful to agriculture when developing climate models. As time permits, some personal experiences with climate change and discussing it with fellow farmers will be shared.

Offshore Wind Turbines Subjected to Hurricanes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amirinia, Gholamreza

Hurricane Andrew (1992) caused one of the largest property losses in U.S. history, but limited availability of surface wind measurements hindered the advancement of wind engineering research. Many studies have been conducted on regular boundary layer winds (non-hurricane winds) and their effects on the structures. In this case, their results were used in the standards and codes; however, hurricane winds and their effects on the structures still need more studies and observations. Analysis of hurricane surface winds revealed that turbulence spectrum of hurricane winds differs from that of non-hurricane surface winds. Vertical profile of wind velocity and turbulence intensity are also important for determining the wind loads on high-rise structures. Vertical profile of hurricane winds is affected by different parameters such as terrain or surface roughness. Recent studies show that wind velocity profile and turbulence intensity of hurricane winds may be different from those used in the design codes. Most of the studies and available models for analyzing wind turbines subjected to high-winds neglect unsteady aerodynamic forces on a parked wind tower. Since the blade pitch angle in a parked wind turbine is usually about 90°, the drag coefficient on blade airfoils are very small therefore the along-wind aerodynamic forces on the blades are smaller than those on the tower. Hence, the tower in parked condition plays an important role in along-wind responses of the wind turbine. The objectives of this study are, first, to explore the nature of the hurricane surface winds. Next, to establish a time domain procedure for addressing structure-wind-wave-soil interactions. Third, investigating the behavior of wind turbines subjected to hurricane loads resulted form hurricane nature and, lastly, to investigate reconfiguration of turbine structure to reduce wind forces. In order to achieve these objective, first, recent observations on hurricane turbulence models were discussed. Then a new formulation for addressing unsteady wind forces on the tower was introduced and NREL-FAST package was modified with the new formulation. Interaction of wind-wave-soil-structure was also included in the modification. After customizing the package, the tower and blade buffeting responses, the low cycle fatigue during different hurricane categories, and extreme value of the short-term responses were analyzed. In the second part, piezoelectric materials were used to generate perturbations on the surface of a specimen in the wind tunnel. This perturbation was used to combine upward wall motion and surface curvature. For this purpose, a Macro Fiber Composite (MFC) material was mounted on the surface of a cylindrical specimen for generating perturbation in the wind tunnel. Four different perturbation frequencies (1 Hz, 2 Hz, 3 Hz, and 4Hz) as well as the baseline specimen were tested in a low-speed wind tunnel (Re= 2.8x104). Results showed that recently observed turbulence models resulted in larger structural responses and low-cycle fatigue damage than existing models. In addition, extreme value analysis of the short-term results showed that the IEC 61400-3 recommendation for wind turbine class I was sufficient for designing the tower for wind turbine class S subjected to hurricane; however, for designing the blade, IEC 61400-3 recommendations for class I underestimated the responses. In addition, wind tunnel testing results showed that the perturbation of the surface of the specimen increased the turbulence in the leeward in specific distance from the specimen. The surface perturbation technique had potential to reduce the drag by 4.8%.

Effects of Mountain Pine Beetle on Fuels and Expected Fire Behavior in Lodgepole Pine Forests, Colorado, USA

PubMed Central

Schoennagel, Tania; Veblen, Thomas T.; Negron, José F.; Smith, Jeremy M.

2012-01-01

In Colorado and southern Wyoming, mountain pine beetle (MPB) has affected over 1.6 million ha of predominantly lodgepole pine forests, raising concerns about effects of MPB-caused mortality on subsequent wildfire risk and behavior. Using empirical data we modeled potential fire behavior across a gradient of wind speeds and moisture scenarios in Green stands compared three stages since MPB attack (Red [1–3 yrs], Grey [4–10 yrs], and Old-MPB [∼30 yrs]). MPB killed 50% of the trees and 70% of the basal area in Red and Grey stages. Across moisture scenarios, canopy fuel moisture was one-third lower in Red and Grey stages compared to the Green stage, making active crown fire possible at lower wind speeds and less extreme moisture conditions. More-open canopies and high loads of large surface fuels due to treefall in Grey and Old-MPB stages significantly increased surface fireline intensities, facilitating active crown fire at lower wind speeds (>30–55 km/hr) across all moisture scenarios. Not accounting for low foliar moistures in Red and Grey stages, and large surface fuels in Grey and Old-MPB stages, underestimates the occurrence of active crown fire. Under extreme burning conditions, minimum wind speeds for active crown fire were 25–35 km/hr lower for Red, Grey and Old-MPB stands compared to Green. However, if transition to crown fire occurs (outside the stand, or within the stand via ladder fuels or wind gusts >65 km/hr), active crown fire would be sustained at similar wind speeds, suggesting observed fire behavior may not be qualitatively different among MPB stages under extreme burning conditions. Overall, the risk (probability) of active crown fire appears elevated in MPB-affected stands, but the predominant fire hazard (crown fire) is similar across MPB stages and is characteristic of lodgepole pine forests where extremely dry, gusty weather conditions are key factors in determining fire behavior. PMID:22272268

Quantifying variability in fast and slow solar wind: From turbulence to extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tindale, E.; Chapman, S. C.; Moloney, N.; Watkins, N. W.

2017-12-01

Fast and slow solar wind exhibit variability across a wide range of spatiotemporal scales, with evolving turbulence producing fluctuations on sub-hour timescales and the irregular solar cycle modulating the system over many years. Here, we apply the data quantile-quantile (DQQ) method [Tindale and Chapman 2016, 2017] to over 20 years of Wind data, to study the time evolution of the statistical distribution of plasma parameters in fast and slow solar wind. This model-independent method allows us to simultaneously explore the evolution of fluctuations across all scales. We find a two-part functional form for the statistical distributions of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) magnitude and its components, with each region of the distribution evolving separately over the solar cycle. Up to a value of 8nT, turbulent fluctuations dominate the distribution of the IMF, generating the approximately lognormal shape found by Burlaga [2001]. The mean of this core-turbulence region tracks solar cycle activity, while its variance remains constant, independent of the fast or slow state of the solar wind. However, when we test the lognormality of this core-turbulence component over time, we find the model provides a poor description of the data at solar maximum, where sharp peaks in the distribution dominate over the lognormal shape. At IMF values higher than 8nT, we find a separate, extremal distribution component, whose moments are sensitive to solar cycle phase, the peak activity of the cycle and the solar wind state. We further investigate these `extremal' values using burst analysis, where a burst is defined as a continuous period of exceedance over a predefined threshold. This form of extreme value statistics allows us to study the stochastic process underlying the time series, potentially supporting a probabilistic forecast of high-energy events. Tindale, E., and S.C. Chapman (2016), Geophys. Res. Lett., 43(11) Tindale, E., and S.C. Chapman (2017), submitted Burlaga, L.F. (2001), J. Geophys. Res., 106(A8)

Extreme Sea Conditions in Shallow Water: Estimation based on in-situ measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Le Crom, Izan; Saulnier, Jean-Baptiste

2013-04-01

The design of marine renewable energy devices and components is based, among others, on the assessment of the environmental extreme conditions (winds, currents, waves, and water level) that must be combined together in order to evaluate the maximal loads on a floating/fixed structure, and on the anchoring system over a determined return period. Measuring devices are generally deployed at sea over relatively short durations (a few months to a few years), typically when describing water free surface elevation, and extrapolation methods based on hindcast data (and therefore on wave simulation models) have to be used. How to combine, in a realistic way, the action of the different loads (winds and waves for instance) and which correlation of return periods should be used are highly topical issues. However, the assessment of the extreme condition itself remains a not-fully-solved, crucial, and sensitive task. Above all in shallow water, extreme wave height, Hmax, is the most significant contribution in the dimensioning process of EMR devices. As a case study, existing methodologies for deep water have been applied to SEMREV, the French marine energy test site. The interest of this study, especially at this location, goes beyond the simple application to SEMREV's WEC and floating wind turbines deployment as it could also be extended to the Banc de Guérande offshore wind farm that are planned close by. More generally to pipes and communication cables as it is a redundant problematic. The paper will first present the existing measurements (wave and wind on site), the prediction chain that has been developed via wave models, the extrapolation methods applied to hindcast data, and will try to formulate recommendations for improving this assessment in shallow water.

Winds as the origin of radio emission in z = 2.5 radio-quiet extremely red quasars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hwang, Hsiang-Chih; Zakamska, Nadia L.; Alexandroff, Rachael M.; Hamann, Fred; Greene, Jenny E.; Perrotta, Serena; Richards, Gordon T.

2018-06-01

Most active galactic nuclei (AGNs) are radio quiet, and the origin of their radio emission is not well understood. One hypothesis is that this radio emission is a byproduct of quasar-driven winds. In this paper, we present the radio properties of 108 extremely red quasars (ERQs) at z = 2-4. ERQs are among the most luminous quasars (Lbol ˜ 1047-48 erg s-1) in the Universe, with signatures of extreme (≫1000 km s-1) outflows in their [O III]λ5007 Å emission, making them the best subjects to seek the connection between radio and outflow activities. All ERQs but one are unresolved in the radio on ˜10 kpc scales, and the median radio luminosity of ERQs is νLν[6 GHz] = 1041.0 erg s-1, in the radio-quiet regime, but 1-2 orders of magnitude higher than that of other quasar samples. The radio spectra are steep, with a mean spectral index <α> = -1.0. In addition, ERQs neatly follow the extrapolation of the low-redshift correlation between radio luminosity and the velocity dispersion of [O III]-emitting ionized gas. Uncollimated winds, with a power of one per cent of the bolometric luminosity, can account for all these observations. Such winds would interact with and shock the gas around the quasar and in the host galaxy, resulting in acceleration of relativistic particles and the consequent synchrotron emission observed in the radio. Our observations support the picture in which ERQs are signposts of extremely powerful episodes of quasar feedback, and quasar-driven winds as a contributor of the radio emission in the intermediate regime of radio luminosity νLν = 1039-1042 erg s-1.

Forecast skill of synoptic conditions associated with Santa Ana winds in Southern California

Treesearch

Charles Jones; Francis Fujioka; Leila M.V. Carvalho

2010-01-01

Santa Ana winds (SAW) are synoptically driven mesoscale winds observed in Southern California usually during late fall and winter. Because of the complex topography of the region, SAW episodes can sometimes be extremely intense and pose significant environmental hazards, especially during wildfire incidents. A simple set of criteria was used to identify synoptic-scale...

SMAP Takes a New Measure of Hurricane Matthew Winds

NASA Image and Video Library

2016-10-07

NASA's SMAP radiometer instrument measured Hurricane Matthew's wind speeds at 4:52 a.m. PDT (7:52 a.m. EDT) at up to 132 miles per hour (59 meters per second). SMAP has excellent sensitivity to extreme winds, far beyond that of typical scatterometer instruments now in orbit. http://photojournal.jpl.nasa.gov/catalog/PIA21096

Summary of Natural Hazard Statistics for 2017 in the United States

MedlinePlus

... Damage Costs Weather Event Convection Lightning Tornado Thunderstorm Wind Hail Extreme Temperatures Cold Heat Flood Flash Flood ... Drought Dust Storm Dust Devil Rain Fog High Wind Waterspout Fire Weather Mud Slide Volcanic Ash Miscellaneous ...

Summary of Natural Hazard Statistics for 2015 in the United States

MedlinePlus

... Damage Costs Weather Event Convection Lightning Tornado Thunderstorm Wind Hail Extreme Temperatures Cold Heat Flood Flash Flood ... Drought Dust Storm Dust Devil Rain Fog High Wind Waterspout Fire Weather Mud Slide Volcanic Ash Miscellaneous ...

Storm observations by remote sensing and influences of gustiness on ocean waves and on generation of rogue waves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pleskachevsky, Andrey L.; Lehner, Susanne; Rosenthal, Wolfgang

2012-09-01

The impact of the gustiness on surface waves under storm conditions is investigated with focus on the appearance of wave groups with extreme high amplitude and wavelength in the North Sea. During many storms characterized by extremely high individual waves measured near the German coast, especially in cold air outbreaks, the moving atmospheric open cells are observed by optical and radar satellites. According to measurements, the footprint of the cell produces a local increase in the wind field at sea surface, moving as a consistent system with a propagation speed near to swell wave-traveling speed. The optical and microwave satellite data are used to connect mesoscale atmospheric turbulences and the extreme waves measured. The parameters of open cells observed are used for numerical spectral wave modeling. The North Sea with horizontal resolution of 2.5 km and with focus on the German Bight was simulated. The wind field "storm in storm," including moving organized mesoscale eddies with increased wind speed, was generated. To take into account the rapid moving gust structure, the input wind field was updated each 5 min. The test cases idealized with one, two, and four open individual cells and, respectively, with groups of open cells, with and without preexisting sea state, as well the real storm conditions, are simulated. The model results confirm that an individual-moving open cell can cause the local significant wave height increase in order of meters within the cell area and especially in a narrow area of 1-2 km at the footprint center of a cell (the cell's diameter is 40-90 km). In a case of a traveling individual open cell with 15 m·s-1 over a sea surface with a preexisting wind sea of and swell, a local significant wave height increase of 3.5 m is produced. A group of cells for a real storm condition produces a local increase of significant wave height of more than 6 m during a short time window of 10-20 min (cell passing). The sea surface simulation from modeled wave spectra points out the appearance of wave groups including extreme individual waves with a period of about 25 s and a wavelength of more than 350 m under the cell's footprint. This corresponds well with measurement of a rogue wave group with length of about 400 m and a period of near 25 s. This has been registered at FiNO-1 research platform in the North Sea during Britta storm on November 1, 2006 at 04:00 UTC. The results can explain the appearance of rogue waves in the German Bight and can be used for ship safety and coastal protection. Presently, the considered mesoscale gustiness cannot be incorporated in present operational wave forecasting systems, since it needs an update of the wind field at spatial and temporal scales, which is still not available for such applications. However, the scenario simulations for cell structures with appropriate travel speed, observed by optical and radar satellites, can be done and applied for warning messages.

Community Resilience: Increasing Public Understanding of Risk and Vulnerability to Natural Hazards through Informal Education

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salna, E.

2017-12-01

The Extreme Events Institute's (EEI) International Hurricane Research Center (IHRC) at Florida International University (FIU) in Miami, Florida, as a NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador, is dedicated to make South Florida, Ready, Responsive and Resilient. IHRC with funding from the Florida Division of Emergency Management (FDEM) has developed several museum exhibits and events. This includes the hands-on FIU Wall of Wind exhibit for the National Building Museum in Washington, DC, the Frost Science Museum in Miami, Florida, and the Museum of Discovery and Science (MODS) in Fort Lauderdale, Florida. The exhibit teaches the public about hurricane wind engineering research, enhanced building codes, and the importance of protecting your home's windows and doors with code-approved shutters. In addition, IHRC and MODS facilitate Eye of the Storm, a free-of-charge, community event with interactive hurricane science, and preparedness activities, including the entertaining Owlie Skywarn live theater show and live air cannon missile impact demonstrations. This annual event includes many local, state and federal partners, including NOAA and NWS. The IHRC also developed the FIU Wall of Wind Mitigation Challenge. As the next generation of engineers to address natural hazards and extreme weather, this STEM education event features a competition between high school teams to develop innovative wind mitigation concepts and real-life human safety and property protection solutions. IHRC and MODS are also developing a new exhibit of a Hazard/Risk Equation that will "come to life," through virtual reality (VR) technology in a state-of-the art 7D theater. The exhibit will provide a better public understanding of how changes in exposures and vulnerabilities will determine whether a community experiences an emergency, disaster or catastrophe. It will raise public consciousness and drive home the point that communities need not passively accept natural hazard risks. Ultimately, if we raise their understanding, we may raise their support for Disaster Risk Reduction and then voice that support to their local government officials and policy-makers. The goal and end-result is improved community resilience. This is especially relevant with Miami being part of the Rockefeller Foundation's 100 Resilient Cities Initiative.

Passive air sampling using semipermeable membrane devices at different wind-speeds in situ calibrated by performance reference compounds.

PubMed

Söderström, Hanna S; Bergqvist, Per-Anders

2004-09-15

Semipermeable membrane devices (SPMDs) are passive samplers used to measure the vapor phase of organic pollutants in air. This study tested whether extremely high wind-speeds during a 21-day sampling increased the sampling rates of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), and whether the release of performance reference compounds (PRCs) was related to the uptakes at different wind-speeds. Five samplers were deployed in an indoor, unheated, and dark wind tunnel with different wind-speeds at each site (6-50 m s(-1)). In addition, one sampler was deployed outside the wind tunnel and one outside the building. To test whether a sampler, designed to reduce the wind-speeds, decreased the uptake and release rates, each sampler in the wind tunnel included two SPMDs positioned inside a protective device and one unprotected SPMD outside the device. The highest amounts of PAHs and PCBs were found in the SPMDs exposed to the assumed highest wind-speeds. Thus, the SPMD sampling rates increased with increasing wind-speeds, indicating that the uptake was largely controlled by the boundary layer at the membrane-air interface. The coefficient of variance (introduced by the 21-day sampling and the chemical analysis) for the air concentrations of three PAHs and three PCBs, calculated using the PRC data, was 28-46%. Thus, the PRCs had a high ability to predict site effects of wind and assess the actual sampling situation. Comparison between protected and unprotected SPMDs showed that the sampler design reduced the wind-speed inside the devices and thereby the uptake and release rates.

Probabilistic forecasting of extreme weather events based on extreme value theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Van De Vyver, Hans; Van Schaeybroeck, Bert

2016-04-01

Extreme events in weather and climate such as high wind gusts, heavy precipitation or extreme temperatures are commonly associated with high impacts on both environment and society. Forecasting extreme weather events is difficult, and very high-resolution models are needed to describe explicitly extreme weather phenomena. A prediction system for such events should therefore preferably be probabilistic in nature. Probabilistic forecasts and state estimations are nowadays common in the numerical weather prediction community. In this work, we develop a new probabilistic framework based on extreme value theory that aims to provide early warnings up to several days in advance. We consider the combined events when an observation variable Y (for instance wind speed) exceeds a high threshold y and its corresponding deterministic forecasts X also exceeds a high forecast threshold y. More specifically two problems are addressed:} We consider pairs (X,Y) of extreme events where X represents a deterministic forecast, and Y the observation variable (for instance wind speed). More specifically two problems are addressed: Given a high forecast X=x_0, what is the probability that Y>y? In other words: provide inference on the conditional probability: [ Pr{Y>y|X=x_0}. ] Given a probabilistic model for Problem 1, what is the impact on the verification analysis of extreme events. These problems can be solved with bivariate extremes (Coles, 2001), and the verification analysis in (Ferro, 2007). We apply the Ramos and Ledford (2009) parametric model for bivariate tail estimation of the pair (X,Y). The model accommodates different types of extremal dependence and asymmetry within a parsimonious representation. Results are presented using the ensemble reforecast system of the European Centre of Weather Forecasts (Hagedorn, 2008). Coles, S. (2001) An Introduction to Statistical modelling of Extreme Values. Springer-Verlag.Ferro, C.A.T. (2007) A probability model for verifying deterministic forecasts of extreme events. Wea. Forecasting {22}, 1089-1100.Hagedorn, R. (2008) Using the ECMWF reforecast dataset to calibrate EPS forecasts. ECMWF Newsletter, {117}, 8-13.Ramos, A., Ledford, A. (2009) A new class of models for bivariate joint tails. J.R. Statist. Soc. B {71}, 219-241.

Evaluation of wind induced currents modeling along the Southern Caspian Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bohluly, Asghar; Esfahani, Fariba Sadat; Montazeri Namin, Masoud; Chegini, Fatemeh

2018-02-01

To improve our understanding of the Caspian Sea hydrodynamics, its circulation is simulated with special focus on wind-driven currents of its southern basin. The hydrodynamic models are forced with a newly developed fine resolution wind field to increase the accuracy of current modeling. A 2D shallow water equation model and a 3D baroclinic model are applied separately to examine the performance of each model for specific applications in the Caspian Sea. The model results are validated against recent field measurements including AWAC and temperature observations in the southern continental shelf region. Results show that the 2D model is able to well predict the depth-averaged current speed in storm conditions in narrow area of southern coasts. This finding suggests physical oceanographers apply 2D modeling as a more affordable method for extreme current speed analysis at the continental shelf region. On the other hand the 3D model demonstrates a better performance in reproducing monthly mean circulation and hence is preferable for surface circulation of Caspian Sea. Monthly sea surface circulation fields of the southern basin reveal a dipole cyclonic-anticyclonic pattern, a dominant eastward current along the southern coasts which intensifies from May to November and a dominant southward current along the eastern coasts in all months except February when the flow is northward. Monthly mean wind fields exhibit two main patterns including a north-south pattern occurring at warm months and collision of two wind fronts especially in the cold months. This collision occurs on a narrow region at the southern continental shelf regions. Due to wind field complexities, it leads to a major source of uncertainty in predicting the wind-driven currents. However, this source of uncertainty is significantly alleviated by applying a fine resolution wind field.

Impact of Scatterometer Ocean Wind Vector Data on NOAA Operations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jelenak, Z.; Chang, P.; Brennan, M. J.; Sienkiewicz, J. M.

2015-12-01

Near real-time measurements of ocean surface vector winds (OSVW), including both wind speed and direction from non-NOAA satellites, are being widely used in critical operational NOAA forecasting and warning activities. The scatterometer wind data data have had major operational impact in: a) determining wind warning areas for mid-latitude systems (gale, storm,hurricane force); b) determining tropical cyclone 34-knot and 50-knot wind radii. c) tracking the center location of tropical cyclones, including the initial identification of their formation. d) identifying and warning of extreme gap and jet wind events at all latitudes. e) identifying the current location of frontal systems and high and low pressure centers. f) improving coastal surf and swell forecasts Much has been learned about the importance and utility of satellite OSVW data in operational weather forecasting and warning by exploiting OSVW research satellites in near real-time. Since December 1999 when first data from QuikSCAT scatterometer became available in near real time NOAA operations have been benefiting from ASCAT scatterometer observations on MetOp-A and B, Indian OSCAT scatterometer on OceanSat-3 and lately NASA's RapidScat mission on International Space Station. With oceans comprising over 70 percent of the earth's surface, the impacts of these data have been tremendous in serving society's needs for weather and water information and in supporting the nation's commerce with information for safe, efficient, and environmentally sound transportation and coastal preparedness. The satellite OSVW experience that has been gained over the past decade by users in the operational weather community allows for realistic operational OSVW requirements to be properly stated for future missions. Successful model of transitioning research data into operation implemented by Ocean Winds Team in NOAA's NESDIS/STAR office and subsequent data impacts will be presented and discussed.

Conference on Early Mars: Geologic and Hydrologic Evolution, Physical and Chemical Environments, and the Implications for Life

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Clifford, S. M. (Editor); Treiman, A. H. (Editor); Newsom, H. E. (Editor); Farmer, J. D. (Editor)

1997-01-01

Topics considered include: Geology alteration and life in an extreme environment; developing a chemical code to identify magnetic biominerals; effect of impacts on early Martin geologic evolution; spectroscopic identification of minerals in Hematite-bearing soils and sediments; exopaleontology and the search for a Fossil record on Mars; geochemical evolution of the crust of Mars; geological evolution of the early earth;solar-wind-induced erosion of the Mars atmosphere. Also included geological evolution of the crust of Mars.

Status report of wind energy programs in the Philippines

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Benavidez, P.J.

1996-12-31

This paper discusses the wind resource assessment activities being undertaken by the National Power Corporation at the extreme northern part of Luzon island. Preliminary results from the 10-month wind data are presented. This will give prospective wind developers all idea oil tile vast resources of wind energy available in the northern part of the country. This paper will also discuss briefly the stand-alone 10 kW wind turbine system that was commissioned early this year and the guidelines being drafted for the entry of new and renewable energy sources in the country`s energy generation mix. 4 figs., 1 tab.

Future wave and wind projections for United States and United-States-affiliated Pacific Islands

USGS Publications Warehouse

Storlazzi, Curt D.; Shope, James B.; Erikson, Li H.; Hegermiller, Christine A.; Barnard, Patrick L.

2015-01-01

Changes in future wave climates in the tropical Pacific Ocean from global climate change are not well understood. Spatially and temporally varying waves dominate coastal morphology and ecosystem structure of the islands throughout the tropical Pacific. Waves also impact coastal infrastructure, natural and cultural resources, and coastal-related economic activities of the islands. Wave heights, periods, and directions were forecast through the year 2100 using wind parameter outputs from four atmosphere-ocean global climate models from the Coupled Model Inter-Comparison Project, Phase 5, for Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios 4.5 and 8.5 that correspond to moderately mitigated and unmitigated greenhouse gas emissions, respectively. Wind fields from the global climate models were used to drive a global WAVEWATCH-III wave model and generate hourly time-series of bulk wave parameters for 25 islands in the mid to western tropical Pacific for the years 1976–2005 (historical), 2026–2045 (mid-century projection), and 2085–2100 (end-of-century projection). Although the results show some spatial heterogeneity, overall the December-February extreme significant wave heights, defined as the mean of the top 5 percent of significant wave height time-series data modeled within a specific period, increase from present to mid-century and then decrease toward the end of the century; June-August extreme wave heights increase throughout the century within the Central region of the study area; and September-November wave heights decrease strongly throughout the 21st century, displaying the largest and most widespread decreases of any season. Peak wave periods increase east of the International Date Line during the December-February and June-August seasons under RCP4.5. Under the RCP8.5 scenario, wave periods decrease west of the International Date Line during December-February but increase in the eastern half of the study area. Otherwise, wave periods decrease throughout the study area during other seasons. Extreme wave directions in equatorial Micronesia during June-August undergo an approximate 30° clockwise rotation from primarily west to northwest. September-November RCP4.5 extreme mean wave directions rotate counterclockwise by approximately 30 to 45° in equatorial Micronesia; September-November RCP8.5 extreme mean wave directions within equatorial Micronesia rotate clockwise by approximately 20 to 30°. Extreme wind speeds decreased within both scenarios, with the largest decreases occurring in the September-November season. Extreme wind directions under RCP4.5 rotated clockwise by more than 60° in equatorial Micronesia during the September-November season and by approximately 30° during June-August. RCP8.5 extreme wind directions rotated counterclockwise during September-November within the same region by 30 to 50° and clockwise by 30 to 40° at one island. The spatial patterns and trends are similar between the two different greenhouse gas emission scenarios, with the magnitude and extent of the trends generally greater for the higher (RCP8.5) scenario.

A nonstationary analysis for the Northern Adriatic extreme sea levels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Masina, Marinella; Lamberti, Alberto

2013-09-01

The historical data from the Trieste, Venice, Porto Corsini, and Rimini tide gauges have been used to investigate the spatial and temporal changes in extreme high water levels in the Northern Adriatic. A detailed analysis of annual mean sea level evolution at the three longest operating stations shows a coherent behavior both on a regional and global scale. A slight increase in magnitude of extreme water elevations, after the removal of the regularized annual mean sea level necessary to eliminate the effect of local subsidence and sea level rise, is found at the Venice and Porto Corsini stations. It seems to be mainly associated with a wind regime change occurred in the 1990s, due to an intensification of Bora wind events after their decrease in frequency and intensity during the second half of the 20th century. The extreme values, adjusted for the annual mean sea level trend, are modeled using a time-dependent GEV distribution. The inclusion of seasonality in the GEV parameters considerably improves the data fitting. The interannual fluctuations of the detrended monthly maxima exhibit a significant correlation with the variability of the large-scale atmospheric circulation represented by the North Atlantic Oscillation and Arctic Oscillation indices. The different coast exposure to the Bora and Sirocco winds and their seasonal character explain the various seasonal patterns of extreme sea levels observed at the tide gauges considered in the present analysis.

Significant events in low-level flow conditions hazardous to aircraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Alexander, M. B.; Camp, D. W.

1983-01-01

Atmospheric parameters recorded during high surface winds are analyzed to determine magnitude, frequency, duration, and simultaneity of occurrence of low level flow conditions known to be hazardous to the ascent and descent of conventional aircraft and the space shuttle. Graphic and tabular presentations of mean and extreme values and simultaneous occurrences of turbulence (gustiness and a gust factor), wind shear (speed and direction), and vertical motion (updrafts and downdrafts), along with associated temperature inversions are included as function of tower height, layer and/or distance for six 5 sec intervals (one interval every 100 sec) of parameters sampled simultaneously at the rate of 10 speeds, directions and temperatures per second during an approximately 10 min period.

Black Swan Tropical Cyclones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Emanuel, K.; Lin, N.

2012-12-01

Virtually all assessments of tropical cyclone risk are based on historical records, which are limited to a few hundred years at most. Yet stronger TCs may occur in the future and at places that have not been affected historically. Such events lie outside the realm of historically based expectations and may have extreme impacts. Their occurrences are also often made explainable after the fact (e.g., Hurricane Katrina). We nickname such potential future TCs, characterized by rarity, extreme impact, and retrospective predictability, "black swans" (Nassim Nicholas Taleb, 2007). As, by definition, black swan TCs have yet to happen, statistical methods that solely rely on historical track data cannot predict their occurrence. Global climate models lack the capability to predict intense storms, even with a resolution as high as 14 km (Emanuel et al. 2010). Also, most dynamic downscaling methods (e.g., Bender et al. 2010) are still limited in horizontal resolution and are too expensive to implement to generate enough events to include rare ones. In this study, we apply a simpler statistical/deterministic hurricane model (Emanuel et al. 2006) to simulate large numbers of synthetic storms under a given (observed or projected) climate condition. The method has been shown to generate realistic extremes in various basins (Emanuel et al. 2008 and 2010). We also apply a hydrodynamic model (ADCIRC; Luettich et al. 1992) to simulate the storm surges generated by these storms. We then search for black swan TCs, in terms of the joint wind and surge damage potential, in the generated large databases. Heavy rainfall is another important TC hazard and will be considered in a future study. We focus on three areas: Tampa Bay in the U.S., the Persian Gulf, and Darwin in Australia. Tampa Bay is highly vulnerable to storm surge as it is surrounded by shallow water and low-lying lands, much of which may be inundated by a storm tide of 6 m. High surges are generated by storms with a broad spectrum of characteristics in our synthetic database, although no large surge has been recorded historically as only one moderate storm passed by the area. Tampa black swans are identified as those that move northward parallel to the west Florida coast with high intensities and resonant with the Florida-shelf edge waves to generate extreme surges up to 10 m in Tampa Bay. The Arabian Sea area has sea surface temperatures warm enough to support the development of severe TCs, but TC development has been limited by low humidity and high wind shear, and only one recorded TC (super cyclonic storm Gonu in 2007) moved close to the Persian Gulf, making landfall in Oman and Iran. Our analysis shows that black swan TCs can originate within the Persian Gulf and make landfall with high intensities in populous places; extreme surges over 9 m for Abu Dubai and Doha and over 7 m for Dubai are possible. Darwin experienced immense devastation from Cyclone Tracy of 1974, but the damage was mainly due to the strong winds (the surge was only about 1.6 m). Our analysis includes extremely intense black swan TCs that make landfall just south of Darwin, generating surges above 10 m; these results may prompt the city to reconsider its TC risk. We are currently analyzing the join probability of the extreme wind and surge of these black swan TCs to more clearly assess their full damage potentials.

Climate Prediction Center - Monitoring and Data - Regional Climate Maps:

Science.gov Websites

; Precipitation & Temperature > Regional Climate Maps: USA Menu Weekly 1-Month 3-Month 12-Month Weekly Total Precipitation Average Temperature Extreme Maximum Temperature Extreme Minimum Temperature Departure of Average Temperature from Normal Extreme Apparent Temperature Minimum Wind Chill Temperature

Space Shuttle Pad Exposure Period Meteorological Parameters STS-1 Through STS-107

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Overbey, B. G.; Roberts, B. C.

2005-01-01

During the 113 missions of the Space Transportation System (STS) to date, the Space Shuttle fleet has been exposed to the elements on the launch pad for approx. 4,195 days. The Natural Environments Branch at Marshall Space Flight Center archives atmospheric environments to which the Space Shuttle vehicles are exposed. This Technical Memorandum (TM) provides a summary of the historical record of the meteorological conditions encountered by the Space Shuttle fleet during the pad exposure period. Parameters included in this TM are temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, wind direction, sea level pressure, and precipitation. Extremes for each of these parameters for each mission are also summarized. Sources for the data include meteorological towers and hourly surface observations. Data are provided from the first launch of the STS in 1981 through the launch of STS-107 in 2003.

Regional downscaling of temporal resolution in near-surface wind from statistically downscaled Global Climate Models (GCMs) for use in San Francisco Bay coastal flood modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Neill, A.; Erikson, L. H.; Barnard, P.

2013-12-01

While Global Climate Models (GCMs) provide useful projections of near-surface wind vectors into the 21st century, resolution is not sufficient enough for use in regional wave modeling. Statistically downscaled GCM projections from Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogues (MACA) provide daily near-surface winds at an appropriate spatial resolution for wave modeling within San Francisco Bay. Using 30 years (1975-2004) of climatological data from four representative stations around San Francisco Bay, a library of example daily wind conditions for four corresponding over-water sub-regions is constructed. Empirical cumulative distribution functions (ECDFs) of station conditions are compared to MACA GFDL hindcasts to create correction factors, which are then applied to 21st century MACA wind projections. For each projection day, a best match example is identified via least squares error among all stations from the library. The best match's daily variation in velocity components (u/v) is used as an analogue of representative wind variation and is applied at 3-hour increments about the corresponding sub-region's projected u/v values. High temporal resolution reconstructions using this methodology on hindcast MACA fields from 1975-2004 accurately recreate extreme wind values within the San Francisco Bay, and because these extremes in wind forcing are of key importance in wave and subsequent coastal flood modeling, this represents a valuable method of generating near-surface wind vectors for use in coastal flood modeling.

Novel Atmospheric and Sea State Modeling in Ocean Energy Applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kallos, George; Galanis, George; Kalogeri, Christina; Larsen, Xiaoli Guo

2013-04-01

The rapidly increasing use of renewable energy sources poses new challenges for the research and technological community today. The integration of the, usually, highly variable wind and wave energy amounts into the general grid, the optimization of energy transition and the forecast of extreme values that could lead to instabilities and failures of the system can be listed among them. In the present work, novel methodologies based on state of the art numerical wind/wave simulation systems and advanced statistical techniques addressing such type of problems are discussed. In particular, extremely high resolution modeling systems simulating the atmospheric and sea state conditions with spatial resolution of 100 meters or less and temporal discretization of a few seconds are utilized in order to simulate in the most detailed way the combined wind-wave energy potential at offshore sites. In addition, a statistical analysis based on a variety of mean and variation measures as well as univariate and bivariate probability distributions is used for the estimation of the variability of the power potential revealing the advantages of the use of combined forms of energy by offshore platforms able to produce wind and wave power simultaneously. The estimation and prediction of extreme wind/wave conditions - a critical issue both for site assessment and infrastructure maintenance - is also studied by means of the 50-year return period over areas with increased power potential. This work has been carried out within the framework of the FP7 project MARINA Platform (http://www.marina-platform.info/index.aspx).

Typhoon generated surface gravity waves measured by NOMAD-type buoys

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Collins, Clarence O., III

This study examines wind-generated ocean surface waves as measured by NOMAD-type buoys during the ONR-sponsored Impact of Typhoons on the Ocean in the Pacific (ITOP) field experiment in 2010. 1-D measurements from two new Extreme Air-Sea Interaction (EASI) NOMAD-type buoys were validated against measurements from established Air-Sea Interaction Spar (ASIS) buoys. Also, during ITOP, 3 drifting Miniature Wave Buoys, a wave measuring marine radar on the R/V Roger Revelle, and several overpasses of JASON-1 (C- and Ku-band) and -2 (Ku-band) satellite altimeters were within 100 km of either EASI buoy. These additional measurements were compared against both EASI buoys. Findings are in line with previous wave parameter inter-comparisons. A corroborated measurement of mean wave direction and direction at the peak of the spectrum from the EASI buoy is presented. Consequently, this study is the first published account of directional wave information which has been successfully gathered from a buoy with a 6 m NOMAD-type hull. This result may be applied to improve operational coverage of wave direction. In addition, details for giving a consistent estimate of sea surface elevation from buoys using strapped down accelerometers are given. This was found to be particularly important for accurate measurement of extreme waves. These technical studies established a high level of confidence in the ITOP wave measurements. Detailed frequency-direction spectra were analyzed. Structures in the wave field were described during the close passages of 4 major tropical cyclones (TC) including: severe tropical storm Dianmu, Typhoon Fanapi, Super Typhoon Megi, and Typhoon Chaba. In addition, significant swell was measured from a distant 5th TC, Typhoon Malakas. Changes in storm direction and intensity are found to have a profound impact on the wave field. Measurements of extreme waves were explored. More extreme waves were measured during TCs which coincided with times of increased wave steepness. The largest extreme waves, which are more impressive than the Draupner (aka Newyears) wave in terms of normalized wave height, were found to occur under circumstances which support the theory of modulation instability. It is suggested that swell and wind sea, as generated by complex TCs winds, may merge and/or couple in such a way to produce sea-states which are unstable. The largest extreme wave, which was over 21 m high, appears to have occurred under such circumstances. However, the development of unstable seas, and the possible connection between the occurrence of extreme waves and unstable seas, has yet to be confirmed.

Testing and Modeling of a 3-MW Wind Turbine Using Fully Coupled Simulation Codes (Poster)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

LaCava, W.; Guo, Y.; Van Dam, J.

This poster describes the NREL/Alstom Wind testing and model verification of the Alstom 3-MW wind turbine located at NREL's National Wind Technology Center. NREL,in collaboration with ALSTOM Wind, is studying a 3-MW wind turbine installed at the National Wind Technology Center(NWTC). The project analyzes the turbine design using a state-of-the-art simulation code validated with detailed test data. This poster describes the testing and the model validation effort, and provides conclusions about the performance of the unique drive train configuration used in this wind turbine. The 3-MW machine has been operating at the NWTC since March 2011, and drive train measurementsmore » will be collected through the spring of 2012. The NWTC testing site has particularly turbulent wind patterns that allow for the measurement of large transient loads and the resulting turbine response. This poster describes the 3-MW turbine test project, the instrumentation installed, and the load cases captured. The design of a reliable wind turbine drive train increasingly relies on the use of advanced simulation to predict structural responses in a varying wind field. This poster presents a fully coupled, aero-elastic and dynamic model of the wind turbine. It also shows the methodology used to validate the model, including the use of measured tower modes, model-to-model comparisons of the power curve, and mainshaft bending predictions for various load cases. The drivetrain is designed to only transmit torque to the gearbox, eliminating non-torque moments that are known to cause gear misalignment. Preliminary results show that the drivetrain is able to divert bending loads in extreme loading cases, and that a significantly smaller bending moment is induced on the mainshaft compared to a three-point mounting design.« less

Are Wind Power and Hydropower Complements or Competitors? An Analysis of Ecosystem Service Constraints in the Roanoke Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reed, P. M.; Fernandez, A. R.; Blumsack, S.

2011-12-01

Hydropower can provide inexpensive, flexible fill-in power to compensate for intermittent renewable generation. Policies for hydropower dams maintain multiple services beyond electric generation, including environmental protection, flood control and recreation. We model the decision of a hydroelectric generator to shift some of its power production capacity away from the day-ahead energy market into a "wind-following" service that smoothes the intermittent production of wind turbines. Offering such a service imposes both private and social opportunity costs. Since fluctuations in wind energy output are not perfectly correlated with day-ahead energy prices, a wind-following service will necessarily affect generator revenues. Seasonal wind patterns produce conflicts with the goal of managing rivers for "ecosystem services" - the maintenance or enhancement of downstream ecosystems. We illustrate our decision model using the Kerr Dam in PJM's territory in North Carolina. We simulate the operation of Kerr Dam over a three-year period that features hydrologic variability from normal water years to extreme drought conditions. We use an optimization framework to estimate reservation prices for Kerr Dam offering wind-following services in the PJM market. Wind-following may be profitable for Kerr Dam at low capacity levels during some time periods if ecosystems services are neglected and if side payments, or reserves-type payments, are provided. Wind-following with ecosystem services yields revenue losses that typically cannot be recovered with reserves market payments. Water release patterns are inconsistent with ecosystem-services goals when Kerr Dam dedicates significant capacity to wind-following, particularly in drought years.

Hydroeconomic Analysis of the Balance between Renewable Wind Energy, Hydropower, and Ecosystems Services in the Roanoke River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fernandez, A.; Blumsack, S.; Reed, P.

2012-04-01

Hydropower can provide inexpensive, flexible fill-in power to compensate for intermittent renewable generation. Policies for hydropower dams maintain multiple services beyond electric generation, including environmental protection, flood control and recreation. We model the decision of a hydroelectric generator to shift some of its power production capacity away from the day-ahead energy market into a "wind-following" service that smoothes the intermittent production of wind turbines. Offering such a service imposes both private and social opportunity costs. Since fluctuations in wind energy output are not perfectly correlated with day-ahead energy prices, a wind-following service will necessarily affect generator revenues. Seasonal wind patterns produce conflicts with the goal of managing rivers for "ecosystem services" - the maintenance or enhancement of downstream ecosystems. We illustrate our decision model using the Kerr Dam in PJM's territory in North Carolina. We simulate the operation of Kerr Dam over a three-year period that features hydrologic variability from normal water years to extreme drought conditions. We use an optimization framework to estimate reservation prices for Kerr Dam offering wind-following services in the PJM market. Wind-following may be profitable for Kerr Dam at low capacity levels during some time periods if ecosystems services are neglected and if side payments, or reserves-type payments, are provided. Wind-following with ecosystem services yields revenue losses that typically cannot be recovered with reserves market payments. Water release patterns are inconsistent with ecosystem-services goals when Kerr Dam dedicates significant capacity to wind-following, particularly in drought years.

A Cause and A Solution for the Underprediction of Extreme Wave Events in the Northeast Pacific

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ellenson, A. N.; Ozkan-Haller, H. T.; Thomson, J.; Brown, A. C.; Haller, M. C.

2016-12-01

Along the coastlines of Washington and Oregon, at least one 10 m wave height event occurs every year, and the strongest storms produce wave heights of 14-15 m. Extremely high wave heights can cause severe damage to coastal infrastructure and pose hazards to stakeholders along the coast. A system which can accurately predict such sea states is important for quantifying risk and aiding in preparation for extreme wave events. This study explores how to optimize forecast model performance for extreme wave events by utilizing different physics packages or wind input in four model configurations. The different wind input products consist of a reanalyzed Global Forecasting System (GFS) wind input and a Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) from the National Center of Environmental Prediction (NCEP). The physics packages are the Tolman-Chalikov (1996) ST2 physics package and the Ardhuin et al (2009) ST4 physics package associated with version 4.18 of WaveWatch III. A hindcast was previously performed to assess the wave character along the Pacific Northwest Coastline for wave energy applications. Inspection of hindcast model results showed that the operational model, which consisted of ST2 physics and GFS wind, underpredicted events where wave height exceeded six meters.The under-prediction is most severe for cases with the combined conditions of a distant cyclone and a strong coastal jet. Three such cases were re-analyzed with the four model configurations. Model output is compared with observations at NDBC buoy 46050, offshore of Newport, OR. The model configuration consisting of ST4 physics package and CFSR wind input performs best as compared with the original model, reducing significant wave height underprediction from 1.25 m to approximately 0.67 m and mean wave direction error from 30 degrees to 17 degrees for wave heights greater than 6 m. Spectral analysis shows that the ST4-CFSR model configuration best resolves southerly wave energy, and all model configurations tend to overestimate northerly wave energy. This directional distinction is important when attempting to identify which atmospheric feature has induced the extreme wave energy.

Hurricane Gustav: Observations and Analysis of Coastal Change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Doran, Kara S.; Stockdon, Hilary F.; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Sallenger, Asbury H.; Guy, Kristy K.; Serafin, Katherine A.

2009-01-01

Understanding storm-induced coastal change and forecasting these changes require knowledge of the physical processes associated with a storm and the geomorphology of the impacted coastline. The primary physical processes of interest are the wind field, storm surge, currents, and wave field. Not only does wind cause direct damage to structures along the coast, but it is ultimately responsible for much of the energy that is transferred to the ocean and expressed as storm surge, mean currents, and surface waves. Waves and currents are the processes most responsible for moving sediments in the coastal zone during extreme storm events. Storm surge, which is the rise in water level due to the wind, barometric pressure, and other factors, allows both waves and currents to attack parts of the coast not normally exposed to these processes. Coastal geomorphology, including shapes of the shoreline, beaches, and dunes, is also a significant aspect of the coastal change observed during extreme storms. Relevant geomorphic variables include sand dune elevation, beach width, shoreline position, sediment grain size, and foreshore beach slope. These variables, in addition to hydrodynamic processes, can be used to predict coastal vulnerability to storms. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Assessment of Coastal Change Hazards project (http://coastal.er.usgs.gov/hurricanes) strives to provide hazard information to those concerned about the Nation's coastlines, including residents of coastal areas, government agencies responsible for coastal management, and coastal researchers. As part of the National Assessment, observations were collected to measure morphological changes associated with Hurricane Gustav, which made landfall near Cocodrie, Louisiana, on September 1, 2008. Methods of observation included oblique aerial photography, airborne topographic surveys, and ground-based topographic surveys. This report documents these data-collection efforts and presents qualitative and quantitative descriptions of hurricane-induced changes to the shoreline, beaches, dunes, and infrastructure in the region that was heavily impacted by Hurricane Gustav.

Assessment of Wind Turbine Component Loads Under Yaw-Offset Conditions

DOE PAGES

Damiani, Rick R.; Dana, Scott; Annoni, Jennifer; ...

2018-04-13

Renewed interest in yaw control for wind turbine and power plants for wake redirection and load mitigation demands a clear understanding of the effects of running with skewed inflow. In this paper, we investigate the physics of yawed operations, building up the complexity from a simplified analytical treatment to more complex aeroelastic simulations. Results in terms of damage equivalent loads (DELs) and extreme loads under operating, misaligned conditions are compared to data collected from an instrumented, utility-scale wind turbine. The analysis shows that multiple factors are responsible for the DELs of the various components, and that airfoil aerodynamics, elastic characteristicsmore » of the rotor, and turbulence intensities are the primary drivers. Both fatigue and extreme loads are observed to have relatively complex trends with yaw offsets, which can change depending on the wind-speed regime. As a result, good agreement is found between predicted and measured trends for both fatigue and ultimate loads.« less

Assessment of Wind Turbine Component Loads Under Yaw-Offset Conditions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Damiani, Rick R.; Dana, Scott; Annoni, Jennifer

Renewed interest in yaw control for wind turbine and power plants for wake redirection and load mitigation demands a clear understanding of the effects of running with skewed inflow. In this paper, we investigate the physics of yawed operations, building up the complexity from a simplified analytical treatment to more complex aeroelastic simulations. Results in terms of damage equivalent loads (DELs) and extreme loads under operating, misaligned conditions are compared to data collected from an instrumented, utility-scale wind turbine. The analysis shows that multiple factors are responsible for the DELs of the various components, and that airfoil aerodynamics, elastic characteristicsmore » of the rotor, and turbulence intensities are the primary drivers. Both fatigue and extreme loads are observed to have relatively complex trends with yaw offsets, which can change depending on the wind-speed regime. As a result, good agreement is found between predicted and measured trends for both fatigue and ultimate loads.« less

Advanced Offshore Wind Energy - Atlantic Consortium

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kempton, Willett

This project developed relationships among the lead institution, U of Delaware, wind industry participants from 11 companies, and two other universities in the region. The participating regional universities were University of Maryland and Old Dominion University. Research was carried out in six major areas: Analysis and documentation of extreme oceanic wind events & their impact on design parameters, calibration of corrosivity estimates measured on a coastal turbine, measurment and modeling of tower structures, measurement and modeling of the tribology of major drive components, and gearbox conditioning monitoring using acoustic sensors. The project also had several educational goals, including establishing amore » course in wind energy and training graduate students. Going beyond these goals, three new courses were developed, a graduate certificate program in wind power was developed and approved, and an exchange program in wind energy was established with Danish Technical University. Related to the installation of a Gamesa G90 turbine on campus and a Gamesa-UD research program established in part due to this award, several additional research projects have been carried out based on mutual industry-university interests, and funded by turbine revenues. This award and the Gamesa partnership have jointly led to seven graduate students receiving full safety and climb training, to become “research climbers” as part of their wind power training, and contributing to on-turbine research. As a result of the educational program, already six graduate students have taken jobs in the US wind industry.« less

Mediterranean space-time extremes of wind wave sea states

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barbariol, Francesco; Carniel, Sandro; Sclavo, Mauro; Marcello Falcieri, Francesco; Bonaldo, Davide; Bergamasco, Andrea; Benetazzo, Alvise

2014-05-01

Traditionally, wind wave sea states during storms have been observed, modeled, and predicted mostly in the time domain, i.e. at a fixed point. In fact, the standard statistical models used in ocean waves analysis rely on the implicit assumption of long-crested waves. Nevertheless, waves in storms are mainly short-crested. Hence, spatio-temporal features of the wave field are crucial to accurately model the sea state characteristics and to provide reliable predictions, particurly of wave extremes. Indeed, the experimental evidence provided by novel instrumentations, e.g. WASS (Wave Acquisition Stereo System), showed that the maximum sea surface elevation gathered in time over an area, i.e. the space-time extreme, is larger than that one measured in time at a point, i.e. the time extreme. Recently, stochastic models used to estimate maxima of multidimensional Gaussian random fields have been applied to ocean waves statistics. These models are based either on Piterbarg's theorem or Adler and Taylor's Euler Characteristics approach. Besides a probability of exceedance of a certain threshold, they can provide the expected space-time extreme of a sea state, as long as space-time wave features (i.e. some parameters of the directional variance density spectrum) are known. These models have been recently validated against WASS observation from fixed and moving platforms. In this context, our focus was modeling and predicting extremes of wind waves during storms. Thus, to intensively gather space-time extremes data over the Mediterranean region, we used directional spectra provided by the numerical wave model SWAN (Simulating WAves Nearshore). Therefore, we set up a 6x6 km2 resolution grid entailing most of the Mediterranean Sea and we forced it with COSMO-I7 high resolution (7x7 km2) hourly wind fields, within 2007-2013 period. To obtain the space-time features, i.e. the spectral parameters, at each grid node and over the 6 simulated years, we developed a modified version of the SWAN model, the SWAN Space-Time (SWAN-ST). SWAN-ST results were post-processed to obtain the expected space-time extremes over the model domain. To this end, we applied the stochastic model of Fedele, developed starting from Adler and Taylor's approach, which we found to be more accurate and versatile with respect to Piterbarg's theorem. Results we obtained provide an alternative sight on Mediterranean extreme wave climate, which could represent the first step towards operationl forecasting of space-time wave extremes, on the one hand, and the basis for a novel statistical standard wave model, on the other. These results may benefit marine designers, seafarers and other subjects operating at sea and exposed to the frequent and severe hazard represented by extreme wave conditions.

Investigating Extreme Lifestyles through Mangrove Transcriptomics

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dassanayake, Maheshi

2009-01-01

Mangroves represent phylogenetically diverse taxa in tropical coastal terrestrial habitats. They are extremophiles, evolutionarily adapted to tolerate flooding, anoxia, high temperatures, wind, and high and extremely variable salt conditions in typically resource-poor environments. The genetic basis for these adaptations is, however, virtually…

CFD-based design load analysis of 5MW offshore wind turbine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tran, T. T.; Ryu, G. J.; Kim, Y. H.; Kim, D. H.

2012-11-01

The structure and aerodynamic loads acting on NREL 5MW reference wind turbine blade are calculated and analyzed based on advanced Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) and unsteady Blade Element Momentum (BEM). A detailed examination of the six force components has been carried out (three force components and three moment components). Structure load (gravity and inertia load) and aerodynamic load have been obtained by additional structural calculations (CFD or BEM, respectively,). In CFD method, the Reynolds Average Navier-Stokes approach was applied to solve the continuity equation of mass conservation and momentum balance so that the complex flow around wind turbines was modeled. Written in C programming language, a User Defined Function (UDF) code which defines transient velocity profile according to the Extreme Operating Gust condition was compiled into commercial FLUENT package. Furthermore, the unsteady BEM with 3D stall model has also adopted to investigate load components on wind turbine rotor. The present study introduces a comparison between advanced CFD and unsteady BEM for determining load on wind turbine rotor. Results indicate that there are good agreements between both present methods. It is importantly shown that six load components on wind turbine rotor is significant effect under Extreme Operating Gust (EOG) condition. Using advanced CFD and additional structural calculations, this study has succeeded to construct accuracy numerical methodology to estimate total load of wind turbine that compose of aerodynamic load and structure load.

Higher-than-predicted saltation threshold wind speeds on Titan.

PubMed

Burr, Devon M; Bridges, Nathan T; Marshall, John R; Smith, James K; White, Bruce R; Emery, Joshua P

2015-01-01

Titan, the largest satellite of Saturn, exhibits extensive aeolian, that is, wind-formed, dunes, features previously identified exclusively on Earth, Mars and Venus. Wind tunnel data collected under ambient and planetary-analogue conditions inform our models of aeolian processes on the terrestrial planets. However, the accuracy of these widely used formulations in predicting the threshold wind speeds required to move sand by saltation, or by short bounces, has not been tested under conditions relevant for non-terrestrial planets. Here we derive saltation threshold wind speeds under the thick-atmosphere, low-gravity and low-sediment-density conditions on Titan, using a high-pressure wind tunnel refurbished to simulate the appropriate kinematic viscosity for the near-surface atmosphere of Titan. The experimentally derived saltation threshold wind speeds are higher than those predicted by models based on terrestrial-analogue experiments, indicating the limitations of these models for such extreme conditions. The models can be reconciled with the experimental results by inclusion of the extremely low ratio of particle density to fluid density on Titan. Whereas the density ratio term enables accurate modelling of aeolian entrainment in thick atmospheres, such as those inferred for some extrasolar planets, our results also indicate that for environments with high density ratios, such as in jets on icy satellites or in tenuous atmospheres or exospheres, the correction for low-density-ratio conditions is not required.

A storm severity index based on return levels of wind speeds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Becker, Nico; Nissen, Katrin M.; Ulbrich, Uwe

2015-04-01

European windstorms related to extra-tropical cyclones cause considerable damages to infrastructure during the winter season. Leckebusch et al. (2008) introduced a storm severity index (SSI) based on the exceedances of the local 98th percentile of wind speeds. The SSI is based on the assumption that (insured) damage usually occurs within the upper 2%-quantile of the local wind speed distribution (i.e. if the 98th percentile is exceeded). However, critical infrastructure, for example related to the power network or the transportation system, is usually designed to withstand wind speeds reaching the local 50-year return level, which is much higher than the 98th percentile. The aim of this work is to use the 50-year return level to develop a modified SSI, which takes into account only extreme wind speeds relevant to critical infrastructure. As a first step we use the block maxima approach to estimate the spatial distribution of return levels by fitting the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution to the wind speeds retrieved from different reanalysis products. We show that the spatial distributions of the 50-year return levels derived from different reanalyses agree well within large parts of Europe. The differences between the reanalyses are largely within the range of the uncertainty intervals of the estimated return levels. As a second step the exceedances of the 50-year return level are evaluated and compared to the exceedances of the 98th percentiles for different extreme European windstorms. The areas where the wind speeds exceed the 50-year return level in the reanalysis data do largely agree with the areas where the largest damages were reported, e.g. France in the case of "Lothar" and "Martin" and Central Europe in the case of "Kyrill". Leckebusch, G. C., Renggli, D., & Ulbrich, U. (2008). Development and application of an objective storm severity measure for the Northeast Atlantic region. Meteorologische Zeitschrift, 17(5), 575-587.

Atmospheric circulation types and extreme areal precipitation in southern central Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jacobeit, Jucundus; Homann, Markus; Philipp, Andreas; Beck, Christoph

2017-04-01

Gridded daily rainfall data for southern central Europe are aggregated to regions of similar precipitation variability by means of S-mode principal component analyses separately for the meteorological seasons. Atmospheric circulation types (CTs) are derived by a particular clustering technique including large-scale fields of SLP, vertical wind and relative humidity at the 700 hPa level as well as the regional rainfall time series. Multiple regression models with monthly CT frequencies as predictors are derived for monthly frequencies and amounts of regional precipitation extremes (beyond the 95 % percentile). Using predictor output from different global climate models (ECHAM6, ECHAM5, EC-EARTH) for different scenarios (RCP4.5, RCP8.5, A1B) and two projection periods (2021-2050, 2071-2100) leads to assessments of future changes in regional precipitation extremes. Most distinctive changes are indicated for the summer season with mainly increasing extremes for the earlier period and widespread decreasing extremes towards the end of the 21st century, mostly for the strong scenario. Considerable uncertainties arise from the predictor use of different global climate models, especially during the winter and spring seasons.

Lightweight Modular Instrumentation for Planetary Applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Joshi, P. B.

1993-01-01

An instrumentation, called Space Active Modular Materials ExperimentS (SAMMES), is developed for monitoring the spacecraft environment and for accurately measuring the degradation of space materials in low earth orbit (LEO). The SAMMES architecture concept can be extended to instrumentation for planetary exploration, both on spacecraft and in situ. The operating environment for planetary application will be substantially different, with temperature extremes and harsh solar wind and cosmic ray flux on lunar surfaces and temperature extremes and high winds on venusian and Martian surfaces. Moreover, instruments for surface deployment, which will be packaged in a small lander/rover (as in MESUR, for example), must be extremely compact with ultralow power and weight. With these requirements in mind, the SAMMES concept was extended to a sensor/instrumentation scheme for the lunar and Martian surface environment.

Nanomaterials Commercialization Center

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-02-01

turbine manufacturer). ln the wind energy area , customers clearly stated that the major short-tenn technical need for toughening is in the area of...interactions: • The wind energy composites market for turbine blades is an extremely high growth, high potential opportunity. Potential value ofnano...Wire Takeup System (MTS), with a winding pitch modified to meet the needs of the small diameter wire (- 100J.1m) produced in this reel-to-reelline

Future Gamma-Ray Observations of Pulsars and their Environments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Thompson, David J.

2006-01-01

Pulsars and pulsar wind nebulae seen at gamma-ray energies offer insight into particle acceleration to very high energies under extreme conditions. Pulsed emission provides information about the geometry and interaction processes in the magnetospheres of these rotating neutron stars, while the pulsar wind nebulae yield information about high-energy particles interacting with their surroundings. During the next decade, a number of new and expanded gamma-ray facilities will become available for pulsar studies, including Astro-rivelatore Gamma a Immagini LEggero (AGILE) and Gamma-ray Large Area Space Telescope (GLAST) in space and a number of higher-energy ground-based systems. This review describes the capabilities of such observatories to answer some of the open questions about the highest-energy processes involving neutron stars.

Extreme value modeling for the analysis and prediction of time series of extreme tropospheric ozone levels: a case study.

PubMed

Escarela, Gabriel

2012-06-01

The occurrence of high concentrations of tropospheric ozone is considered as one of the most important issues of air management programs. The prediction of dangerous ozone levels for the public health and the environment, along with the assessment of air quality control programs aimed at reducing their severity, is of considerable interest to the scientific community and to policy makers. The chemical mechanisms of tropospheric ozone formation are complex, and highly variable meteorological conditions contribute additionally to difficulties in accurate study and prediction of high levels of ozone. Statistical methods offer an effective approach to understand the problem and eventually improve the ability to predict maximum levels of ozone. In this paper an extreme value model is developed to study data sets that consist of periodically collected maxima of tropospheric ozone concentrations and meteorological variables. The methods are applied to daily tropospheric ozone maxima in Guadalajara City, Mexico, for the period January 1997 to December 2006. The model adjusts the daily rate of change in ozone for concurrent impacts of seasonality and present and past meteorological conditions, which include surface temperature, wind speed, wind direction, relative humidity, and ozone. The results indicate that trend, annual effects, and key meteorological variables along with some interactions explain the variation in daily ozone maxima. Prediction performance assessments yield reasonably good results.

Solar wind and extreme ultraviolet modulation of the lunar ionosphere/exosphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Freeman, J. W.

1976-01-01

The ALSEP/SIDE detectors routinely monitor the dayside lunar ionosphere. Variations in the ionosphere are found to correlate with both the 2800 MHz radio index which can be related to solar EUV and with the solar wind proton flux. For the solar wind, the ionospheric variation is proportionately greater than that of the solar wind. This suggests an amplification effect on the lunar atmosphere due perhaps to sputtering of the surface or, less probably, an inordinate enhancement of noble gases in the solar wind. The surface neutral number density is calculated under the assumption of neon gas. During a quiet solar wind this number agrees with or is slightly above that expected for neon accreted from the solar wind. During an enhanced solar wind the neutral number density is much higher.

Forest impact estimated with NOAA AVHRR and landsat TM data related to an empirical hurricane wind-field distribution

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ramsey, Elijah W.; Hodgson, M.E.; Sapkota, S.K.; Nelson, G.A.

2001-01-01

An empirical model was used to relate forest type and hurricane-impact distribution with wind speed and duration to explain the variation of hurricane damage among forest types along the Atchafalaya River basin of coastal Louisiana. Forest-type distribution was derived from Landsat Thematic Mapper image data, hurricane-impact distribution from a suite of transformed advanced very high resolution radiometer images, and wind speed and duration from a wind-field model. The empirical model explained 73%, 84%, and 87% of the impact variances for open, hardwood, and cypress-tupelo forests, respectively. These results showed that the estimated impact for each forest type was highly related to the duration and speed of extreme winds associated with Hurricane Andrew in 1992. The wind-field model projected that the highest wind speeds were in the southern basin, dominated by cypress-tupelo and open forests, while lower wind speeds were in the northern basin, dominated by hardwood forests. This evidence could explain why, on average, the impact to cypress-tupelos was more severe than to hardwoods, even though cypress-tupelos are less susceptible to wind damage. Further, examination of the relative importance of wind speed in explaining the impact severity to each forest type showed that the impact to hardwood forests was mainly related to tropical-depression to tropical-storm force wind speeds. Impacts to cypress-tupelo and open forests (a mixture of willows and cypress-tupelo) were broadly related to tropical-storm force wind speeds and by wind speeds near and somewhat in excess of hurricane force. Decoupling the importance of duration from speed in explaining the impact severity to the forests could not be fully realized. Most evidence, however, hinted that impact severity was positively related to higher durations at critical wind speeds. Wind-speed intervals, which were important in explaining the impact severity on hardwoods, showed that higher durations, but not the highest wind speeds, were concentrated in the northern basin, dominated by hardwoods. The extreme impacts associated with the cypress-tupelo forests in the southeast corner of the basin intersected the highest durations as well as the highest wind speeds. ?? 2001 Published by Elsevier Science Inc.

Evaluating the Large-Scale Environment of Extreme Events Using Reanalyses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bosilovich, M. G.; Schubert, S. D.; Koster, R. D.; da Silva, A. M., Jr.; Eichmann, A.

2014-12-01

Extreme conditions and events have always been a long standing concern in weather forecasting and national security. While some evidence indicates extreme weather will increase in global change scenarios, extremes are often related to the large scale atmospheric circulation, but also occurring infrequently. Reanalyses assimilate substantial amounts of weather data and a primary strength of reanalysis data is the representation of the large-scale atmospheric environment. In this effort, we link the occurrences of extreme events or climate indicators to the underlying regional and global weather patterns. Now, with greater than 3o years of data, reanalyses can include multiple cases of extreme events, and thereby identify commonality among the weather to better characterize the large-scale to global environment linked to the indicator or extreme event. Since these features are certainly regionally dependent, and also, the indicators of climate are continually being developed, we outline various methods to analyze the reanalysis data and the development of tools to support regional evaluation of the data. Here, we provide some examples of both individual case studies and composite studies of similar events. For example, we will compare the large scale environment for Northeastern US extreme precipitation with that of highest mean precipitation seasons. Likewise, southerly winds can shown to be a major contributor to very warm days in the Northeast winter. While most of our development has involved NASA's MERRA reanalysis, we are also looking forward to MERRA-2 which includes several new features that greatly improve the representation of weather and climate, especially for the regions and sectors involved in the National Climate Assessment.

The waviness of the extratropical jet and daily weather extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Röthlisberger, Matthias; Martius, Olivia; Pfahl, Stephan

2016-04-01

In recent years the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes have experienced a large number of weather extremes with substantial socio-economic impact, such as the European and Russian heat waves in 2003 and 2010, severe winter floods in the United Kingdom in 2013/2014 and devastating winter storms such as Lothar (1999) and Xynthia (2010) in Central Europe. These have triggered an engaged debate within the scientific community on the role of human induced climate change in the occurrence of such extremes. A key element of this debate is the hypothesis that the waviness of the extratropical jet is linked to the occurrence of weather extremes, with a wavier jet stream favouring more extremes. Previous work on this topic is expanded in this study by analyzing the linkage between a regional measure of jet waviness and daily temperature, precipitation and wind gust extremes. We show that indeed such a linkage exists in many regions of the world, however this waviness-extremes linkage varies spatially in strength and sign. Locally, it is strong only where the relevant weather systems, in which the extremes occur, are affected by the jet waviness. Its sign depends on how the frequency of occurrence of the relevant weather systems is correlated with the occurrence of high and low jet waviness. These results go beyond previous studies by noting that also a decrease in waviness could be associated with an enhanced number of some weather extremes, especially wind gust and precipitation extremes over western Europe.

Aerodynamic study of a stall regulated horizontal-axis wind turbine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Constantinescu, S. G.; Crunteanu, D. E.; Niculescu, M. L.

2013-10-01

The wind energy is deemed as one of the most durable energetic variants of the future because the wind resources are immense. Furthermore, one predicts that the small wind turbines will play a vital role in the urban environment. Unfortunately, the complexity and the price of pitch regulated small horizontal-axis wind turbines represent ones of the main obstacles to widespread the use in populated zones. Moreover, the energetic efficiency of small stall regulated wind turbines has to be high even at low and medium wind velocities because, usually the cities are not windy places. During the running stall regulated wind turbines, due to the extremely broad range of the wind velocity, the angle of attack can reach high values and some regions of the blade will show stall and post-stall behavior. This paper deals with stall and post-stall regimes because they can induce significant vibrations, fatigue and even the wind turbine failure.

Estimation of integrated public risks for nonseismic external events affecting the Savannah River Site

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Durant, W.S.; robinette, R.J.; Kirchner, J.R.

1994-03-01

In essence, this study was envisioned as the ``combination`` of existing accident dose and risk calculations from safety analyses of individual facilities. However, because of the extended time period over which the safety analyses were prepared, calculational assumptions and methodologies differed between the analyses. The scope of this study therefore included the standardization of assumptions and calculations as necessary to insure that the analytical logic was consistent for all the facilities. Each of the nonseismic external events considered in the analyses are addressed in individual sections in this report. In Section 2, extreme straight-line winds are examined. Section 3 addressesmore » tornadoes, and Section 4 addresses other external events [floods, other extreme weather events (lightning, hail, and extremes in temperature or precipitation), vehicle impact, accidents involving adjacent facilities, aircraft impact, and meteorite impact]. Section 5 provides a summary of the general conclusions of the report.« less

Impact Assessments and Projections in Microclimates: Working with End-Users

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Outten, S.; Wolf, T.

2015-12-01

Local impacts of meteorological events are often shaped by the microclimates in which they occur and only by including understanding of these microclimates can robust assessments and projections of such events be made. However, co-production of knowledge with end users is also required in order to make the assessments useful for decision makers and for society as a whole. This work presents two studies working with end users around the European city of Bergen, Norway. The first study is on extreme winds assessment for larger-scale construction. While such an assessment is usually based on historical observations when the climate was more stationary, under a changing climate, infrastructure built to last for the next fifty years or more may experience events not seen in the observational period. The case study is presented for the newly completed Hardanger Bridge in Norway and demonstrates a novel method for incorporating estimates of future changes in extreme winds into the design process (figure 1). Given the close collaboration with the engineers involved in the bridge's construction, the method was tailored to fit with existing practices and standards. The second study focuses on air pollution events within the city that are favoured by persistent wintertime temperature inversions in the narrow Bergen valley. Using a temperature profile radiometer, these temperature inversions have been characterized and related to the local circulation in- and above the valley. There has been the assumption that the many large ships in Bergen harbour had a major contribution to high pollution events within the city. Results from this study however indicate that temperature inversions are mostly connected to down-valley winds. These should remove the ship-emissions from the city, giving the ships a much smaller impact on high air pollution events than previously assumed, something that is under further evaluation and of high interest for the local harbour authority. Figure 1. Extreme wind speed distributions at the Utsira meteorological station from observations (black), with future estimates based on multiple regional climate models (red and blue). Vertical lines indicate the 50-year return event.

The X-ray Lightcurve of Eta Carinae, 1996-2014

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Corcoran, Michael F.; Hamaguchi, Kenji; Liburd, Jamar; Gull, Theodore R.; Madura, Thomas; Teodoro, Mairan; Moffat, Anthony F. J.; Richardson, Noel; Russell, Christopher Michael Post; Pollock, A.; Owocki, Stanley P.

2015-01-01

Eta Carinae is the nearest example of a supermassive, superluminous, unstable star. Mass loss from the system is important in shaping its circumstellar medium and in determining the ultimate fate of the star. Eta Car loses mass via a dense, slow stellar wind and possesses one of the largest mass loss rates known. It is prone to episodes of extreme mass ejection via eruptions from some as-yet unspecified cause; the best examples of this are the large-scale eruptions which occurred in the mid-19th century, and then again about 50 years later. Eta Car is a colliding wind binary in which strong variations in X-ray emission and in other wavebands are driven by the violent collision of the wind of Eta Car and the fast, less dense wind of an otherwise hidden companion star. X-ray variations are the simplest diagnostic we have to study the wind-wind collision and allow us to measure the state of the stellar mass loss from both stars. We present the X-ray lightcurve over the last 20 years from monitoring observations with the Rossi X-ray Timing Explorer and the X-ray Telescope on the Swift satellite, and compare and contrast the behavior of the X-ray emission from the system over that timespan, including surprising variations during the 2014 X-ray minimum.

Subsynoptic-scale features associated with extreme surface gusts in UK extratropical cyclone events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Earl, N.; Dorling, S.; Starks, M.; Finch, R.

2017-04-01

Numerous studies have addressed the mesoscale features within extratropical cyclones (ETCs) that are responsible for the most destructive winds, though few have utilized surface observation data, and most are based on case studies. By using a 39-station UK surface observation network, coupled with in-depth analysis of the causes of extreme gusts during the period 2008-2014, we show that larger-scale features (warm and cold conveyer belts) are most commonly associated with the top 1% of UK gusts but smaller-scale features generate the most extreme winds. The cold conveyor belt is far more destructive when joining the momentum of the ETC, rather than earlier in its trajectory, ahead of the approaching warm front. Sting jets and convective lines account for two thirds of severe surface gusts in the UK.

Coordinated Control of Wind Turbine and Energy Storage System for Reducing Wind Power Fluctuation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kim, Chunghun; Muljadi, Eduard; Chung, Chung Choo

This paper proposes a method for the coordinated control of a wind turbine and an energy storage system (ESS). Because wind power (WP) is highly dependent on wind speed, which is variable, severe stability problems can be caused in power systems, especially when the WP has a high penetration level. To solve this problem, many power generation corporations or grid operators have begun using ESSs. An ESS has very quick response and good performance for reducing the impact of WP fluctuation; however, its installation cost is high. Therefore, it is important to design the control algorithm by considering both themore » ESS capacity and WP fluctuation. Thus, we propose a control algorithm to mitigate the WP fluctuation by using the coordinated control between the wind turbine and the ESS by considering the ESS capacity and the WP fluctuation. Using de-loaded control, according to the WP fluctuation and ESS capacity, we can expand the ESS lifespan and improve grid reliability by avoiding the extreme value of state of charge (SoC) (i.e., 0 or 1 pu). The effectiveness of the proposed method was validated via MATLAB/Simulink by considering a small power system that includes both a wind turbine generator and conventional generators that react to system frequency deviation. We found that the proposed method has better performance in SoC management, thereby improving the frequency regulation by mitigating the impact of the WP fluctuation on the small power system.« less

Coordinated Control of Wind Turbine and Energy Storage System for Reducing Wind Power Fluctuation

DOE PAGES

Kim, Chunghun; Muljadi, Eduard; Chung, Chung Choo

2017-12-27

This paper proposes a method for the coordinated control of a wind turbine and an energy storage system (ESS). Because wind power (WP) is highly dependent on wind speed, which is variable, severe stability problems can be caused in power systems, especially when the WP has a high penetration level. To solve this problem, many power generation corporations or grid operators have begun using ESSs. An ESS has very quick response and good performance for reducing the impact of WP fluctuation; however, its installation cost is high. Therefore, it is important to design the control algorithm by considering both themore » ESS capacity and WP fluctuation. Thus, we propose a control algorithm to mitigate the WP fluctuation by using the coordinated control between the wind turbine and the ESS by considering the ESS capacity and the WP fluctuation. Using de-loaded control, according to the WP fluctuation and ESS capacity, we can expand the ESS lifespan and improve grid reliability by avoiding the extreme value of state of charge (SoC) (i.e., 0 or 1 pu). The effectiveness of the proposed method was validated via MATLAB/Simulink by considering a small power system that includes both a wind turbine generator and conventional generators that react to system frequency deviation. We found that the proposed method has better performance in SoC management, thereby improving the frequency regulation by mitigating the impact of the WP fluctuation on the small power system.« less

The G-HAT Search for Advanced Extraterrestrial Civilizations: The Reddest Extended WISE Sources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maldonado, Jessica; Povich, Matthew S.; Wright, Jason; Griffith, Roger; Sigurdsson, Steinn; Mullan, Brendan L.

2015-01-01

Freeman Dyson (1960) theorized how to identify possible signatures of advanced extra-terrestrial civilizations by their waste heat, an inevitable byproduct of a civilization using a significant fraction of the luminosity from their host star. If a civilizations could tap the starlight throughout their host galaxy their waste heat would be easily detectable by recent infrared surveys. The Glimpsing Heat from Alien Technologies (G-HAT) pilot project aims to place limits on the existence of extraterrestrial civilizations at pan-galactic scales. We present results from the G-HAT cleaned catalog of 563 extremely red, extended high Galactic latitude (|b| ≥ 10) sources from the WISE All-Sky Catalog. Our catalog includes sources new to the scientific literature along with well-studied objects (e.g. starburst galaxies, AGN, and planetary nebulae) that exemplify extreme WISE colors. Objects of particular interest include a supergiant Be star (48 Librae) surrounded by a resolved, mid-infrared nebula, possibly indicating dust in the stellar wind ejecta, and a curious cluster of seven extremely red WISE sources (associated with IRAS 04287+6444) that have no optical counterparts.

Optimization Under Uncertainty for Wake Steering Strategies

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Quick, Julian; Annoni, Jennifer; King, Ryan N.

Here, wind turbines in a wind power plant experience significant power losses because of aerodynamic interactions between turbines. One control strategy to reduce these losses is known as 'wake steering,' in which upstream turbines are yawed to direct wakes away from downstream turbines. Previous wake steering research has assumed perfect information, however, there can be significant uncertainty in many aspects of the problem, including wind inflow and various turbine measurements. Uncertainty has significant implications for performance of wake steering strategies. Consequently, the authors formulate and solve an optimization under uncertainty (OUU) problem for finding optimal wake steering strategies in themore » presence of yaw angle uncertainty. The OUU wake steering strategy is demonstrated on a two-turbine test case and on the utility-scale, offshore Princess Amalia Wind Farm. When we accounted for yaw angle uncertainty in the Princess Amalia Wind Farm case, inflow-direction-specific OUU solutions produced between 0% and 1.4% more power than the deterministically optimized steering strategies, resulting in an overall annual average improvement of 0.2%. More importantly, the deterministic optimization is expected to perform worse and with more downside risk than the OUU result when realistic uncertainty is taken into account. Additionally, the OUU solution produces fewer extreme yaw situations than the deterministic solution.« less

Optimization Under Uncertainty for Wake Steering Strategies: Preprint

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Quick, Julian; Annoni, Jennifer; King, Ryan N

Wind turbines in a wind power plant experience significant power losses because of aerodynamic interactions between turbines. One control strategy to reduce these losses is known as 'wake steering,' in which upstream turbines are yawed to direct wakes away from downstream turbines. Previous wake steering research has assumed perfect information, however, there can be significant uncertainty in many aspects of the problem, including wind inflow and various turbine measurements. Uncertainty has significant implications for performance of wake steering strategies. Consequently, the authors formulate and solve an optimization under uncertainty (OUU) problem for finding optimal wake steering strategies in the presencemore » of yaw angle uncertainty. The OUU wake steering strategy is demonstrated on a two-turbine test case and on the utility-scale, offshore Princess Amalia Wind Farm. When we accounted for yaw angle uncertainty in the Princess Amalia Wind Farm case, inflow-direction-specific OUU solutions produced between 0% and 1.4% more power than the deterministically optimized steering strategies, resulting in an overall annual average improvement of 0.2%. More importantly, the deterministic optimization is expected to perform worse and with more downside risk than the OUU result when realistic uncertainty is taken into account. Additionally, the OUU solution produces fewer extreme yaw situations than the deterministic solution.« less

Optimization Under Uncertainty for Wake Steering Strategies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quick, Julian; Annoni, Jennifer; King, Ryan; Dykes, Katherine; Fleming, Paul; Ning, Andrew

2017-05-01

Wind turbines in a wind power plant experience significant power losses because of aerodynamic interactions between turbines. One control strategy to reduce these losses is known as “wake steering,” in which upstream turbines are yawed to direct wakes away from downstream turbines. Previous wake steering research has assumed perfect information, however, there can be significant uncertainty in many aspects of the problem, including wind inflow and various turbine measurements. Uncertainty has significant implications for performance of wake steering strategies. Consequently, the authors formulate and solve an optimization under uncertainty (OUU) problem for finding optimal wake steering strategies in the presence of yaw angle uncertainty. The OUU wake steering strategy is demonstrated on a two-turbine test case and on the utility-scale, offshore Princess Amalia Wind Farm. When we accounted for yaw angle uncertainty in the Princess Amalia Wind Farm case, inflow-direction-specific OUU solutions produced between 0% and 1.4% more power than the deterministically optimized steering strategies, resulting in an overall annual average improvement of 0.2%. More importantly, the deterministic optimization is expected to perform worse and with more downside risk than the OUU result when realistic uncertainty is taken into account. Additionally, the OUU solution produces fewer extreme yaw situations than the deterministic solution.

Optimization Under Uncertainty for Wake Steering Strategies

DOE PAGES

Quick, Julian; Annoni, Jennifer; King, Ryan N.; ...

2017-06-13

Here, wind turbines in a wind power plant experience significant power losses because of aerodynamic interactions between turbines. One control strategy to reduce these losses is known as 'wake steering,' in which upstream turbines are yawed to direct wakes away from downstream turbines. Previous wake steering research has assumed perfect information, however, there can be significant uncertainty in many aspects of the problem, including wind inflow and various turbine measurements. Uncertainty has significant implications for performance of wake steering strategies. Consequently, the authors formulate and solve an optimization under uncertainty (OUU) problem for finding optimal wake steering strategies in themore » presence of yaw angle uncertainty. The OUU wake steering strategy is demonstrated on a two-turbine test case and on the utility-scale, offshore Princess Amalia Wind Farm. When we accounted for yaw angle uncertainty in the Princess Amalia Wind Farm case, inflow-direction-specific OUU solutions produced between 0% and 1.4% more power than the deterministically optimized steering strategies, resulting in an overall annual average improvement of 0.2%. More importantly, the deterministic optimization is expected to perform worse and with more downside risk than the OUU result when realistic uncertainty is taken into account. Additionally, the OUU solution produces fewer extreme yaw situations than the deterministic solution.« less

Probabilistic analysis of wind-induced vibration mitigation of structures by fluid viscous dampers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Jianbing; Zeng, Xiaoshu; Peng, Yongbo

2017-11-01

The high-rise buildings usually suffer from excessively large wind-induced vibrations, and thus vibration control systems might be necessary. Fluid viscous dampers (FVDs) with nonlinear power law against velocity are widely employed. With the transition of design method from traditional frequency domain approaches to more refined direct time domain approaches, the difficulty of time integration of these systems occurs sometimes. In the present paper, firstly the underlying reason of the difficulty is revealed by identifying that the equations of motion of high-rise buildings installed with FVDs are sometimes stiff differential equations. Thus, an approach effective for stiff differential systems, i.e., the backward difference formula (BDF), is then introduced, and verified to be effective for the equation of motion of wind-induced vibration controlled systems. Comparative studies are performed among some methods, including the Newmark method, KR-alpha method, energy-based linearization method and the statistical linearization method. Based on the above results, a 20-story steel frame structure is taken as a practical example. Particularly, the randomness of structural parameters and of wind loading input is emphasized. The extreme values of the responses are examined, showing the effectiveness of the proposed approach, and also necessitating the refined probabilistic analysis in the design of wind-induced vibration mitigation systems.

Identification of Extreme Events Under Climate Change Conditions Over Europe and The Northwest-atlantic Region: Spatial Patterns and Time Series Characteristics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leckebusch, G.; Ulbrich, U.; Speth, P.

In the context of climate change and the resulting possible impacts on socio-economic conditions for human activities it seems that due to a changed occurrence of extreme events more severe consequences have to be expected than from changes in the mean climate. These extreme events like floods, excessive heats and droughts or windstorms possess impacts on human social and economic life in different categories such as forestry, agriculture, energy use, tourism and the reinsurance business. Reinsurances are affected by nearly 70% of all insured damages over Europe in the case of wind- storms. Especially the December 1999 French windstorms caused damages about 10 billion. A new EU-founded project (MICE = Modelling the Impact of Climate Ex- tremes) will focus on these impacts caused by changed occurrences of extreme events over Europe. Based upon the output of general circulation models as well as regional climate models, investigations are carried out with regard to time series characteristics as well as the spatial patterns of extremes under climate changed conditions. After the definition of specific thresholds for climate extremes, in this talk we will focus on the results of the analysis for the different data sets (HadCM3 and CGCMII GCM's and RCM's, re-analyses, observations) with regard to windstorm events. At first the results of model outputs are validated against re-analyses and observations. Especially a comparison of the stormtrack (2.5 to 8 day bandpass filtered 500 hPa geopotential height), cyclone track, cyclone frequency and intensity is presented. Highly relevant to damages is the extreme wind near the ground level, so the 10 m wind speed will be investigated additionally. of special interest to possible impacts is the changed spatial occurrence of windspeed maxima under 2xCO2-induced climate change.

Semiparametric Modeling of Daily Ammonia Levels in Naturally Ventilated Caged-Egg Facilities

PubMed Central

Gutiérrez-Zapata, Diana María; Galeano-Vasco, Luis Fernando; Cerón-Muñoz, Mario Fernando

2016-01-01

Ammonia concentration (AMC) in poultry facilities varies depending on different environmental conditions and management; however, this is a relatively unexplored subject in Colombia (South America). The objective of this study was to model daily AMC variations in a naturally ventilated caged-egg facility using generalized additive models. Four sensor nodes were used to record AMC, temperature, relative humidity and wind speed on a daily basis, with 10 minute intervals for 12 weeks. The following variables were included in the model: Heat index, Wind, Hour, Location, Height of the sensor to the ground level, and Period of manure accumulation. All effects included in the model were highly significant (p<0.001). The AMC was higher during the night and early morning when the wind was not blowing (0.0 m/s) and the heat index was extreme. The average and maximum AMC were 5.94±3.83 and 31.70 ppm, respectively. Temperatures above 25°C and humidity greater than 80% increased AMC levels. In naturally ventilated caged-egg facilities the daily variations observed in AMC primarily depend on cyclic variations of the environmental conditions and are also affected by litter handling (i.e., removal of the bedding material). PMID:26812150

Towards a full representation of tropical cyclones in a global reanalysis of extreme sea levels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muis, S.; Verlaan, M.; Lin, N.; Winsemius, H.; Vatvani, D.; Ward, P.; Aerts, J.

2016-12-01

Tropical cyclones (TCs), including hurricanes and typhoons, are characterised by high wind speeds and low pressure, and cause dangerous storm surges in coastal areas. Recent disasters like the flooding of New Orleans in 2005 due to Hurricane Katrina and of New York in 2012 due to Hurricane Sandy exemplify the significant TC risk in the United States. In this contribution, we present a new framework to model TC storm surges and probabilities at the Atlantic basin- and, ultimately, global scales. This works builds on the work of Muis et al. (2016), which presented the first dynamically-derived reanalysis dataset of storm surges that covers the entire world's coastline (GTSR dataset). Surge levels for the period 1979-2014 were simulated by forcing the Global Surge and Tide Model (GTSM) with wind speed and atmospheric pressure from the ERA-Interim reanalysis. There is generally a good agreement between simulated and observed sea level extremes in extra-tropical regions; however for areas prone to TCs there is a severe underestimation of extremes. For example, the maximum surge levels during Hurricane Katrina in New Orleans exceeded 8 m, whilst the GTSM surge levels in that area do not exceed 2-3 m. Hence, due to the coarse grid resolution, the strong intensities of TCs are not fully captured in ERA-Interim. Furthermore, the length of ERA-Interim data set, like other reanalysis datasets, is too short to estimate the probabilities of extreme TC events in a reliable way. For accurate risk assessments it is essential to improve the representation of TCs in these global reanalysis of extreme sea levels. First, we need a higher resolution of meteorological forcing, which can be modelled with input from the observed best track data. Second, we need to statistically extend the observed record to many thousands of years. We will present the first results of these steps for the east coast of the United States. We will validate the GTSM model forced with best track data using recent extreme events like Katrina and Sandy. We will investigate how the statistics of the extreme sea level will change due to improved representation of TCs.

Mariner 10 mercury encounter.

PubMed

Dunne, J A

1974-07-12

Mariner 10's closet approach to Mercury on 29 March 1974 occurred on the dark side of the planet at a range of approximately 700 kilometers. The spacecraft trajectory passed through the shadows of both the sun and Earth. Experiments conducted included magnetic fields, plasma and charged particle studies of the solar wind interaction region, television photography, extreme ultraviolet spectroscopy of the atmosphere, the detection of infrared thermal radiation from the surface, and a dual-frequency radio occultation in search of an ionosphere.

Assessing storm events for energy meteorology: using media and scientific reports to track a North Sea autumn storm.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kettle, Anthony

2016-04-01

Important issues for energy meteorology are to assess meteorological conditions for normal operating conditions and extreme events for the ultimate limit state of engineering structures. For the offshore environment in northwest Europe, energy meteorology encompasses weather conditions relevant for petroleum production infrastructure and also the new field of offshore wind energy production. Autumn and winter storms are an important issue for offshore operations in the North Sea. The weather in this region is considered as challenging for extreme meteorological events as the Gulf of Mexico with its attendant hurricane risk. The rise of the Internet and proliferation of digital recording devices has placed a much greater amount of information in the public domain than was available to national meteorological agencies even 20 years ago. This contribution looks at reports of meteorology and infrastructure damage from a storm in the autumn of 2006 to trace the spatial and temporal record of meteorological events. Media reports give key information to assess the events of the storm. The storm passed over northern Europe between Oct.31-Nov. 2, 2006, and press reports from the time indicate that its most important feature was a high surge that inundated coastal areas. Sections of the Dutch and German North Sea coast were affected, and there was record flooding in Denmark and East Germany in the southern Baltic Sea. Extreme wind gusts were also reported that were strong enough to damage roofs and trees, and there was even tornado recorded near the Dutch-German border. Offshore, there were a series of damage reports from ship and platforms that were linked with sea state, and reports of rogue waves were explicitly mentioned. Many regional government authorities published summaries of geophysical information related to the storm, and these form part of a regular series of online winter storm reports that started as a public service about 15 years ago. Depending on the issuing authority, these reports include wind speed and atmospheric pressure for a number of stations. However, there is also important ancillary information that includes satellite images, weather radar pictures, sea state recordings, tide gauge records, and coastal surveys. When collated together, the literature survey gives good view of events related to the autumn storm. The key information from media reports is backed up by quantitative numbers from the scientific literature. For energy meteorology in the offshore environment, there is an outline of extreme wave events that may be important to help define the ultimate limit state of engineering structures and the return periods of extreme waves. While this contribution focusses on events from an old storm in the autumn of 2006, more severe regional storms have occurred since then, and the scientific literature indicates that these may be linked with climate warming. Literature surveys may help to fully define extreme meteorological conditions offshore and benefit different branches of the energy industry in Europe.

Wind and wave extremes over the world oceans from very large ensembles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Breivik, Øyvind; Aarnes, Ole Johan; Abdalla, Saleh; Bidlot, Jean-Raymond; Janssen, Peter A. E. M.

2014-07-01

Global return values of marine wind speed and significant wave height are estimated from very large aggregates of archived ensemble forecasts at +240 h lead time. Long lead time ensures that the forecasts represent independent draws from the model climate. Compared with ERA-Interim, a reanalysis, the ensemble yields higher return estimates for both wind speed and significant wave height. Confidence intervals are much tighter due to the large size of the data set. The period (9 years) is short enough to be considered stationary even with climate change. Furthermore, the ensemble is large enough for nonparametric 100 year return estimates to be made from order statistics. These direct return estimates compare well with extreme value estimates outside areas with tropical cyclones. Like any method employing modeled fields, it is sensitive to tail biases in the numerical model, but we find that the biases are moderate outside areas with tropical cyclones.

The Impact of Training and Equipment at the Battle of Attu, Aleutian Campaign - Historical Study and Current Perspective

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-06-12

Waterproofed - Not durable past a few days Jacket Reversible ski parka (R) - Hood - More protection from wind and rain Arctic field jacket (I...No hood - Less protection from wind and rain Sweater Recommended - Necessity in extreme cold based on Alaska experience Not issued - Not

Influence of Convective Effect of Solar Winds on the CME Transit Time

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Lu-yuan

2017-10-01

Based on an empirical model for predicting the transit time of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) proposed by Gopalswamy, 52 CME events which are related to the geomagnetic storms of Dst < -50 nT, and 10 CME events which caused extremely strong geomagnetic storms (Dst < -200 nT) in 1996- 2007 are selected, and combined with the observational data of the interplanetary solar winds that collected by the ACE satellite at 1AU, to analyze the influence of convective effect of ambient solar winds on the prediction of the CME transit time when it arrives at a place of 1 AU. After taking the convective effect of ambient solar winds into account, the standard deviation of predictions is reduced from 16.5 to 11.4 hours for the 52 CME events, and the prediction error is less than 15 hours for 68% of these events; while the standard deviation of predictions is reduced from 10.6 to 6.5 hours for the 10 CME events that caused extremely strong geomagnetic storms, and the prediction error is less than 5 hours for 6 of the 10 events. These results show that taking the convective effect of ambient solar winds into account can reduce the standard deviation of the predicted CME transit time, hence the convective effect of solar winds plays an important role for predicting the transit times of CME events.

Jimsphere wind and turbulence exceedance statistic

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Adelfang, S. I.; Court, A.

1972-01-01

Exceedance statistics of winds and gusts observed over Cape Kennedy with Jimsphere balloon sensors are described. Gust profiles containing positive and negative departures, from smoothed profiles, in the wavelength ranges 100-2500, 100-1900, 100-860, and 100-460 meters were computed from 1578 profiles with four 41 weight digital high pass filters. Extreme values of the square root of gust speed are normally distributed. Monthly and annual exceedance probability distributions of normalized rms gust speeds in three altitude bands (2-7, 6-11, and 9-14 km) are log-normal. The rms gust speeds are largest in the 100-2500 wavelength band between 9 and 14 km in late winter and early spring. A study of monthly and annual exceedance probabilities and the number of occurrences per kilometer of level crossings with positive slope indicates significant variability with season, altitude, and filter configuration. A decile sampling scheme is tested and an optimum approach is suggested for drawing a relatively small random sample that represents the characteristic extreme wind speeds and shears of a large parent population of Jimsphere wind profiles.

Characteristics of extreme dust events observed over two urban areas in Iran

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bidokhti, Abbas-Ali A.; Gharaylou, Maryam; Pegahfar, Nafiseh; Sabetghadam, Samaneh; Rezazadeh, Maryam

2016-03-01

Determination of dust loading in the atmosphere is important not only from the public health point of view, but also for regional climate changes. The present study focuses on the characteristics of two major dust events for two urban areas in Iran, Kermanshah and Tehran, over the period of 4 years from 2006 to 2009. To detect extreme dust outbreaks, various datasets including synoptic data, dust concentration, reanalysis data and numerical results of WRF and HYSPLIT models were used. The weather maps demonstrate that for these events dusts are mainly generated when wind velocity is high and humidity is low in the lower troposphere and the region is under the influence of a thermal low. The event lasts until the atmospheric stability prevails and the surface wind speed weakens. The thermal low nature of the synoptic conditions of these major events is also responsible for deep boundary layer development with its thermals affecting the vertical dust flux over the region. Trajectory studies show that the dust events originated from deserts in Iraq and Syria and transported towards Iran. The main distinction between the two types of mobilizations seems to affect the dust concentrations in the Tehran urban area.

Predicting Impacts of tropical cyclones and sea-Level rise on beach mouse habitat

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chen, Qin; Wang, Hongqing; Wang, Lixia; Tawes, Robert; Rollman, Drew

2014-01-01

Alabama beach mouse (ABM) (Peromyscus polionotus ammobates) is an important component of the coastal dune ecosystem along the Gulf of Mexico. Due to habitat loss and degradation, ABM is federally listed as an endangered species. In this study, we examined the impacts of storm surge and wind waves, which are induced by hurricanes and sea-level rise (SLR), on the ABM habitat on Fort Morgan Peninsula, Alabama, using advanced storm surge and wind wave models and spatial analysis tools in geographic information systems (GIS). Statistical analyses of the long-term historical data enabled us to predict the extreme values of winds, wind waves, and water levels in the study area at different return periods. We developed a series of nested domains for both wave and surge modeling and validated the models using field observations of surge hydrographs and high watermarks of Hurricane Ivan (2004). We then developed wave atlases and flood maps corresponding to the extreme wind, surge and waves without SLR and with a 0.5 m of SLR by coupling the wave and surge prediction models. The flood maps were then merged with a map of ABM habitat to determine the extent and location of habitat impacted by the 100-year storm with and without SLR. Simulation results indicate that more than 82% of ABM habitat would be inundated in such an extreme storm event, especially under SLR, making ABM populations more vulnerable to future storm damage. These results have aided biologists, community planners, and other stakeholders in the identification, restoration and protection of key beach mouse habitat in Alabama. Methods outlined in this paper could also be used to assist in the conservation and recovery of imperiled coastal species elsewhere.

Paleo-event data standards for dendrochronology

Treesearch

Elaine Kennedy Sutherland; P. Brewer; W. Gross

2017-01-01

Extreme environmental events, such as storm winds, landslides, insect infestations, and wildfire, cause loss of life, resources, and human infrastructure. Disaster riskreduction analysis can be improved with information about past frequency, intensity, and spatial patterns of extreme events. Tree-ring analyses can provide such information: tree rings reflect events as...

Oxygen Pickup Ions Measured by MAVEN Outside the Martian Bow Shock

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rahmati, A.; Cravens, T.; Larson, D. E.; Lillis, R. J.; Dunn, P.; Halekas, J. S.; Connerney, J. E. P.; Eparvier, F. G.; Thiemann, E.; Mitchell, D. L.; Jakosky, B. M.

2015-12-01

The MAVEN (Mars Atmosphere and Volatile EvolutioN) spacecraft entered orbit around Mars on September 21, 2014 and has since been detecting energetic oxygen pickup ions by its SEP (Solar Energetic Particles) and SWIA (Solar Wind Ion Analyzer) instruments. The oxygen pickup ions detected outside the Martian bowshock and in the upstream solar wind are associated with the extended hot oxygen exosphere of Mars, which is created mainly by the dissociative recombination of molecular oxygen ions with electrons in the ionosphere. We use analytic solutions to the equations of motion of pickup ions moving in the undisturbed upstream solar wind magnetic and motional electric fields and calculate the flux of oxygen pickup ions at the location of MAVEN. Our model calculates the ionization rate of oxygen atoms in the exosphere based on the hot oxygen densities predicted by Rahmati et al. (2014), and the sources of ionization include photo-ionization, charge exchange, and electron impact ionization. The photo-ionization frequency is calculated using the FISM (Flare Irradiance Spectral Model) solar flux model, based on MAVEN EUVM (Extreme Ultra-Violet Monitor) measurements. The frequency of charge exchange between a solar wind proton and an oxygen atom is calculated using MAVEN SWIA solar wind proton flux measurements, and the electron impact ionization frequency is calculated based on MAVEN SWEA (Solar Wind Electron Analyzer) solar wind electron flux measurements. The solar wind magnetic field used in the model is from the measurements taken by MAVEN MAG (magnetometer) in the upstream solar wind. The good agreement between our predicted pickup oxygen fluxes and the MAVEN SEP and SWIA measured ones confirms detection of oxygen pickup ions and these model-data comparisons can be used to constrain models of hot oxygen densities and photochemical escape flux.

Some tests of flat plate photovoltaic module cell temperatures in simulated field conditions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Griffith, J. S.; Rathod, M. S.; Paslaski, J.

1981-01-01

The nominal operating cell temperature (NOCT) of solar photovoltaic (PV) modules is an important characteristic. Typically, the power output of a PV module decreases 0.5% per deg C rise in cell temperature. Several tests were run with artificial sun and wind to study the parametric dependencies of cell temperature on wind speed and direction and ambient temperature. It was found that the cell temperature is extremely sensitive to wind speed, moderately so to wind direction and rather insensitive to ambient temperature. Several suggestions are made to obtain data more typical of field conditions.

Analog ensemble and Bayesian regression techniques to improve the wind speed prediction during extreme storms in the NE U.S.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, J.; Astitha, M.; Delle Monache, L.; Alessandrini, S.

2016-12-01

Accuracy of weather forecasts in Northeast U.S. has become very important in recent years, given the serious and devastating effects of extreme weather events. Despite the use of evolved forecasting tools and techniques strengthened by increased super-computing resources, the weather forecasting systems still have their limitations in predicting extreme events. In this study, we examine the combination of analog ensemble and Bayesian regression techniques to improve the prediction of storms that have impacted NE U.S., mostly defined by the occurrence of high wind speeds (i.e. blizzards, winter storms, hurricanes and thunderstorms). The predicted wind speed, wind direction and temperature by two state-of-the-science atmospheric models (WRF and RAMS/ICLAMS) are combined using the mentioned techniques, exploring various ways that those variables influence the minimization of the prediction error (systematic and random). This study is focused on retrospective simulations of 146 storms that affected the NE U.S. in the period 2005-2016. In order to evaluate the techniques, leave-one-out cross validation procedure was implemented regarding 145 storms as the training dataset. The analog ensemble method selects a set of past observations that corresponded to the best analogs of the numerical weather prediction and provides a set of ensemble members of the selected observation dataset. The set of ensemble members can then be used in a deterministic or probabilistic way. In the Bayesian regression framework, optimal variances are estimated for the training partition by minimizing the root mean square error and are applied to the out-of-sample storm. The preliminary results indicate a significant improvement in the statistical metrics of 10-m wind speed for 146 storms using both techniques (20-30% bias and error reduction in all observation-model pairs). In this presentation, we discuss the various combinations of atmospheric predictors and techniques and illustrate how the long record of predicted storms is valuable in the improvement of wind speed prediction.

Estimating the extreme low-temperature event using nonparametric methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

D'Silva, Anisha

This thesis presents a new method of estimating the one-in-N low temperature threshold using a non-parametric statistical method called kernel density estimation applied to daily average wind-adjusted temperatures. We apply our One-in-N Algorithm to local gas distribution companies (LDCs), as they have to forecast the daily natural gas needs of their consumers. In winter, demand for natural gas is high. Extreme low temperature events are not directly related to an LDCs gas demand forecasting, but knowledge of extreme low temperatures is important to ensure that an LDC has enough capacity to meet customer demands when extreme low temperatures are experienced. We present a detailed explanation of our One-in-N Algorithm and compare it to the methods using the generalized extreme value distribution, the normal distribution, and the variance-weighted composite distribution. We show that our One-in-N Algorithm estimates the one-in- N low temperature threshold more accurately than the methods using the generalized extreme value distribution, the normal distribution, and the variance-weighted composite distribution according to root mean square error (RMSE) measure at a 5% level of significance. The One-in- N Algorithm is tested by counting the number of times the daily average wind-adjusted temperature is less than or equal to the one-in- N low temperature threshold.

Aerosol forcing of extreme summer drought over North China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, L.

2017-12-01

The frequency of extreme summer drought has been increasing in North China during the past sixty years, which has caused serious water shortages. It remains unclear whether anthropogenic forcing has contributed to the increasing extreme droughts. Using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) re-analysis data and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) model simulations with various combinations of historical forcings, the authors investigated the driving mechanism behind the observed changes. Metrological drought is usually measured by precipitation anomalies, which show lower fidelity in current climate models compared to largescale circulation patterns. Based on NCEP/NCAR re-analysis, a linear relationship is firstly established between the weakest regional average 850 hPa southerly winds and extreme summer drought. This meridional winds index (MWI) is then used as a proxy for attribution of extreme North China drought using CMIP5 outputs. Examination of the CMIP5 simulations reveals that the probability of the extreme summer droughts with the first percentile of MWI for 1850-2004 under anthropogenic forcing has increased by 100%, on average, relative to a pre-industrial control run. The more frequent occurrence of extremely weak MWIs or drought over North China is ascribed from weakened climate and East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) circulation due to the direct cooling effect from increased aerosol.

Effect of linear and non-linear blade modelling techniques on simulated fatigue and extreme loads using Bladed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beardsell, Alec; Collier, William; Han, Tao

2016-09-01

There is a trend in the wind industry towards ever larger and more flexible turbine blades. Blade tip deflections in modern blades now commonly exceed 10% of blade length. Historically, the dynamic response of wind turbine blades has been analysed using linear models of blade deflection which include the assumption of small deflections. For modern flexible blades, this assumption is becoming less valid. In order to continue to simulate dynamic turbine performance accurately, routine use of non-linear models of blade deflection may be required. This can be achieved by representing the blade as a connected series of individual flexible linear bodies - referred to in this paper as the multi-part approach. In this paper, Bladed is used to compare load predictions using single-part and multi-part blade models for several turbines. The study examines the impact on fatigue and extreme loads and blade deflection through reduced sets of load calculations based on IEC 61400-1 ed. 3. Damage equivalent load changes of up to 16% and extreme load changes of up to 29% are observed at some turbine load locations. It is found that there is no general pattern in the loading differences observed between single-part and multi-part blade models. Rather, changes in fatigue and extreme loads with a multi-part blade model depend on the characteristics of the individual turbine and blade. Key underlying causes of damage equivalent load change are identified as differences in edgewise- torsional coupling between the multi-part and single-part models, and increased edgewise rotor mode damping in the multi-part model. Similarly, a causal link is identified between torsional blade dynamics and changes in ultimate load results.

Wind Variability of B Supergiants. No. 2; The Two-component Stellar Wind of gamma Arae

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Prinja, R. K.; Massa, D.; Fullerton, A. W.; Howarth, I. D.; Pontefract, M.

1996-01-01

The stellar wind of the rapidly rotating early-B supergiant, gamma Ara, is studied using time series, high-resolution IUE spectroscopy secured over approx. 6 days in 1993 March. Results are presented based on an analysis of several line species, including N(N), C(IV), Si(IV), Si(III), C(II), and Al(III). The wind of this star is grossly structured, with evidence for latitude-dependent mass loss which reflects the role of rapid rotation. Independent, co-existing time variable features are identified at low-velocity (redward of approx. -750 km/s) and at higher-speeds extending to approx. -1500 km/s. The interface between these structures is 'defined' by the appearance of a discrete absorption component which is extremely sharp (in velocity space). The central velocity of this 'Super DAC' changes only gradually, over several days, between approx. -400 and -750 km/s in most of the ions. However, its location is shifted redward by almost 400 km/s in Al(III) and C(II), indicating that the physical structure giving rise to this feature has a substantial velocity and ionization jump. Constraints on the relative ionization properties of the wind structures are discussed, together with results based on SEI line-profile-fitting methods. The overall wind activity in gamma Ara exhibits a clear ion dependence, such that low-speed features are promoted in low-ionization species, including Al(III), C(II), and Si(III). We also highlight that - in contrast to most OB stars - there are substantial differences in the epoch-to-epoch time-averaged wind profiles of gamma Ara. We interpret the results in terms of a two-component wind model for gamma Ara, with an equatorially compressed low ionization region, and a high speed, higher-ionization polar outflow. This picture is discussed in the context of the predicted bi-stability mechanism for line-driven winds in rapidly rotating early-B type stars, and the formation of compressed wind regions in rapidly rotating hot stars. The apparent absence of a substantial shift in the wind ionization mixture of gamma Ara, and the normal nature of its photospheric spectrum, suggests wind-compression as the likely dominant cause for the observed equatorial density enhancements.

Downwind pre-aligned rotors for extreme-scale wind turbines

DOE PAGES

Loth, Eric; Steele, Adam; Qin, Chao; ...

2017-03-08

Downwind force angles are small for current turbines systems (1-5 MW) such that they may be readily accommodated by conventional upwind configurations. However, analysis indicates that extreme-scale systems (10-20 MW) will have larger angles that may benefit from downwind-aligned configurations. To examine potential rotor mass reduction, the pre-alignment concept was investigated a two-bladed configuration by keeping the structural and aerodynamic characteristics of each blade fixed (to avoids a complete blade re-design). Simulations for a 13.2 MW rated rotor at steady-state conditions show that this concept-level two-bladed design may yield 25% rotor mass savings while also reducing average blade stress overmore » all wind speeds. These results employed a pre-alignment on the basis of a wind speed of 1.25 times the rated wind speed. The downwind pre-aligned concept may also reduce damage equivalent loads on the blades by 60% for steady rated wind conditions. Even higher mass and damage equivalent load savings (relative to conventional upwind designs) may be possible for larger systems (15-20 MW) for which load-alignment angles become even larger. Furthermore, much more work is needed to determine whether this concept can be translated into a practical design that must meet a wide myriad of other criteria.« less

Downwind pre-aligned rotors for extreme-scale wind turbines

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Loth, Eric; Steele, Adam; Qin, Chao

Downwind force angles are small for current turbines systems (1-5 MW) such that they may be readily accommodated by conventional upwind configurations. However, analysis indicates that extreme-scale systems (10-20 MW) will have larger angles that may benefit from downwind-aligned configurations. To examine potential rotor mass reduction, the pre-alignment concept was investigated a two-bladed configuration by keeping the structural and aerodynamic characteristics of each blade fixed (to avoids a complete blade re-design). Simulations for a 13.2 MW rated rotor at steady-state conditions show that this concept-level two-bladed design may yield 25% rotor mass savings while also reducing average blade stress overmore » all wind speeds. These results employed a pre-alignment on the basis of a wind speed of 1.25 times the rated wind speed. The downwind pre-aligned concept may also reduce damage equivalent loads on the blades by 60% for steady rated wind conditions. Even higher mass and damage equivalent load savings (relative to conventional upwind designs) may be possible for larger systems (15-20 MW) for which load-alignment angles become even larger. Furthermore, much more work is needed to determine whether this concept can be translated into a practical design that must meet a wide myriad of other criteria.« less

An Evaluation of QuikSCAT data over Tropical Cyclones as Determined in an Operational Environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hawkins, J. D.; Edson, R. T.

2001-12-01

QuikSCAT data over all global tropical cyclones were examined during the past 3 1/2 years in conjunction with the development of a user¡_s guide to the forecasters at the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, Pearl Harbor, Hawaii. The active microwave scatterometer has greatly enhanced the forecaster's ability to evaluate surface winds over the data poor regions of the tropical oceans. The QuikSCAT scatterometer¡_s unique ability to provide both wind speed and direction on a nearly bi-daily basis has greatly increased the forecaster¡_s near real-time knowledge of tropical cyclone genesis, intensification potential, outer wind structure, and a ¡rminimum estimate¡_ for a tropical cyclone¡_s maximum sustained winds. Scatterometer data were compared with data available to the forecasters in a near real-time environment including ship, land and buoy reports. In addition, comparisons were also made with aircraft measurements (for Atlantic and East Pacific systems), numerical weather model wind fields, and various remote sensing techniques. Wind speeds were found to be extremely useful, especially for the radius of gale force winds. However, in rain-contaminated areas, light winds were often greatly overestimated while in heavy winds, wind speeds were often quite reasonable if not slightly underestimated. The largest issues are still focused on the correct wind direction selection. In these cases, rain-flagged wind vector cells greatly affected the results from the direction ambiguity selection procedure. The ambiguity selection algorithm often had difficulties resolving a circulation center when large areas of the tropical cyclone¡_s center were flagged. Often a block of winds would occur perpendicular to the swath irregardless of the circulation¡_s position. These winds caused considerable confusion for the operational forecasters. However, it was determined that in many cases, an accurate center position could still be obtained by using methods to incorporate the more accurate wind speeds and the outer wind field vectors that were not as seriously affected. Quantitative results and comparisons will be shown in this presentation. In addition, guides to the operational forecasters to determine system centers inspite of the ambiguity selection problems will also be discussed.

Assessment extreme hydrometeorological conditions in the Gulf of Bothnia, the Baltic Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dvornikov, Anton; Martyanov, Stanislav; Ryabchenko, Vladimir; Eremina, Tatjana; Isaev, Alexey; Sein, Dmitry

2017-04-01

Extreme hydrometeorological conditions in the Gulf of Bothnia, the Baltic Sea, are estimated paying a special attention to the area of the future construction of nuclear power plant (NPP) "Hanhikivi-1" (24° 16' E, 64° 32' N). To produce these estimates, long-term observations and results from numerical models of water and ice circulation and wind waves are used. It is estimated that the average annual air temperature in the vicinity of the station is +3° C, summer and winter extreme temperature is equal to 33.3° C and -41.5° C, respectively. Model calculations of wind waves have shown that the most dangerous (in terms of the generation of wind waves in the NPP area) is a north-west wind with the direction of 310°. The maximum height of the waves in the Gulf of Bothnia near the NPP for this wind direction with wind velocity of 10 m/s is 1.2-1.4 m. According to the model estimates, the highest possible level of the sea near the NPP is 248 cm, the minimum level, -151 cm, respectively for the western and eastern winds. These estimates are in good agreement with observations on the sea level for the period 1922-2015 at the nearest hydrometeorological station Raahe (Finland). In order to assess the likely impact of the NPP on the marine environment numerical experiments for the cold (2010) and warm year (2014) have been carried out. These calculations have shown that permanent release of heat into the marine environment from the operating NPP for the cold year (2010) will increase the temperature in the upper layer of 0-250m zone by 10°C in winter - spring and by 8°C in summer - early autumn, and in the bottom layer of 0-250m zone by 5°C in winter - spring and 3°C in summer - early autumn. For the warm year (2014), these temperature changes are smaller. Ice cover in both cases will disappear in two - kilometer vicinity of the NPP. These effects should be taken into account when assessing local climate changes in the future

How extreme weather events can influence the way of thinking about forest management?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ziemblińska, Klaudia; Merbold, Lutz; Urbaniak, Marek; Haeni, Matthias; Olejnik, Janusz

2014-05-01

One third of the total area of Poland, which is covered by forests, is currently managed by "The State National Forest Holding" - the biggest organization in Europe managing forests. Common management practice is based on clear-cutting the vegetation to maintaining forests and ensuring regrowth. While sufficient information exists on the quantity of harvested biomass and particularly its economic value, little knowledge exists on the overall environmental impact of such management including the carbon budgets of forests in Poland. At the same time these forests are very vulnerable to extreme events such as wind throws. Large wind throws can be used as an experimental platform to study both, the effects of extreme events itself but also the effects of management such as clear-cuts, due to the fact that after such kind of natural disasters similar steps then following clear-cuts are implemented. These activities include the removal of whole trees, collection of branches and pulling out stems with heavy machinery, causing additional disturbance. In this study, we aim at providing information to fill the current knowledge gap of changing C budget after clear-cuts and wind throws. We hypothesize large C losses after clear-cuts and ask whether one can improve current forest management to "save" C and/or enhance C sequestration? To answer this specific question we used the eddy covariance (EC) method to adequately measure the net ecosystem exchange of carbon dioxide (NEE) between a deforested area and the atmosphere (treatment) and compare it to measurements from an intact forest of the same type (control). Both sites have the same soil type (brunic arenosoil - after FAO classification) which is sandy and relatively not fertile. Moreover, main species and composition were similar. The treatment area was chosen after the occurrence of a 20min-lasting tornado in July 2012 in Western Poland. The storm resulted in the destruction of more than 500 ha of 75-year old pine forest and provided a unique situation to assess the C budget of a pine forest after wind throw leading to the construction of the Trzebciny EC tower (treatment site). Measurements of CO2 and H2O exchange continue since the beginning of 2013. Measurements from both sites were directly compared to an already established monitoring station (65-year old Tuczno forest, control). We observed a huge difference in NEE between an intact middle age coniferous forest (control site, net gain of 463 g(C-CO2) m-2 in 2013) and an area of similar forest that was destroyed by a tornado and cleared thereafter (treatment site, net loss of about 518 g(C-CO2) m-2 in 2013). Our results provide a great opportunity to re-evaluate current forest management in Poland and will provide a first step towards adjusting forestry management and policy to become less susceptible to climate change (especially extreme events).

Earth-Directed Coronal Hole

NASA Image and Video Library

2016-09-21

A dark coronal hole that was facing towards Earth for several days spewed streams of solar wind in our direction (Sept. 18-21, 2016). A coronal hole is a magnetically open region. The magnetic fields have opened up allowing solar wind (comprised of charged particles) to stream into space. Gusts of solar wind can generate beautiful aurora when they reach Earth. The video clip shows the sun in a wavelength of extreme ultraviolet light. Movies are available at http://photojournal.jpl.nasa.gov/catalog/PIA21067

Coupled Atmosphere-Wave-Ocean Modeling of Tropical Cyclones: Progress, Challenges, and Ways Forward

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Shuyi

2015-04-01

It has long been recognized that air-sea interaction plays an important role in tropical cyclones (TC) intensity change. However, most current numerical weather prediction (NWP) models are deficient in predicting TC intensity. The extreme high winds, intense rainfall, large ocean waves, and copious sea spray in TCs push the surface-exchange parameters for temperature, water vapor, and momentum into untested regimes. Parameterizations of air-sea fluxes in NWP models are often crude and create "manmade" energy source/sink that does not exist, especially in the absence of a fully interactive ocean in the model. The erroneous surface heat, moisture, and momentum fluxes can cause compounding errors in the model (e.g., precipitation, water vapor, boundary layer properties). The energy source (heat and moisture fluxes from the ocean) and sink (surface friction and wind-induced upper ocean cooling) are critical to TC intensity. However, observations of air-sea fluxes in TCs are very limited, especially in extreme high wind conditions underneath of the eyewall region. The Coupled Boundary Layer Air-Sea Transfer (CBLAST) program was designed to better understand the air-sea interaction, especially in high wind conditions, which included laboratory and coupled model experiments and field campaign in 2003-04 hurricane seasons. Significant progress has been made in better understanding of air-sea exchange coefficients up to 30 m/s, i.e., a leveling off in drag coefficient and relatively invariant exchange coefficient of enthalpy with wind speed. More recently, the Impact of Typhoon on the Ocean in the Pacific (ITOP) field campaign in 2010 has provided an unprecedented data set to study the air-sea fluxes in TCs and their impact on TC structure and intensity. More than 800 GPS dropsondes and 900 AXBTs/AXCTs as well as drifters, floats, and moorings were deployed in TCs, including Typhoons Fanapi and Malakas, and Supertyphoon Megi with a record peak wind speed of more than 80 m/s. It is found that the air-sea fluxes are quite asymmetric around a storm with complex features representing various air-sea interaction processes in TCs. A unique observation in Typhoon Fanapi is the development of a stable boundary layer in the near-storm cold wake region, which has a direct impact on TC inner core structure and intensity. Despite of the progress, challenges remain. Air-sea momentum exchange in wind speed greater than 30-40 m/s is largely unresolved. Directional wind-wave stress and wave-current stress are difficult to determine from observations. Effects of sea spray on the air-sea fluxes are still not well understood. This talk will provide an overview on progress made in recent years, challenges we are facing, and ways forward. An integrated coupled observational and atmosphere-wave-ocean modeling system is urgently needed, in which coupled model development and targeted observations from field campaign and lab measurements together form the core of the research and prediction system. Another important aspect is that fully coupled models provide explicit, integrated impact forecasts of wind, rain, waves, ocean currents and surges in TCs and winter storms, which are missing in most current NWP models. It requires a new strategy for model development, evaluation, and verification. Ensemble forecasts using high-resolution coupled atmosphere-wave-ocean models can provide probabilistic forecasts and quantitative uncertainty estimates, which also allow us to explore new methodologies to verify probabilistic impact forecasts and evaluate model physics using a stochastic approach. Examples of such approach in TCs including Superstorm Sandy will be presented.

The influence of experimental wind disturbance on forest fuels and fire characteristics

Treesearch

Jeffery B. Cannon; Joseph J. O' Brien; Louise Loudermilk; Matthew Dickinson; Chris J. Peterson

2014-01-01

Current theory in disturbance ecology predicts that extreme disturbances in rapid succession can lead to dramatic changes in species composition or ecosystem processes due to interactions among disturbances. However, the extent to which less catastrophic, yet chronic, disturbances such as wind damage and fire interact is not well studied. In this study, we simulated...

Incorporating the Wind Erosion Prediction System (WEPS) Into a Regional Air Quality Modeling System for the Pacific Northwest

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

In the Pacific Northwest, wind storms intermittently cause massive dust events that reduce visibility along roadways and jeopardize health as a result of extremely high concentrations of PM10 (particulate matter less than or equal to 10µm in diameter). An early warning dust forecast system is needed...

Measurement campaign for wind power potential in west Greenland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rønnow Jakobsen, Kasper

2013-04-01

Experiences and results from a wind resource exploring campaign 2003- in west Greenland. Like many other countries, Greenland is trying to reduce its dependency of fossil fuel by implementing renewable energy. The main challenge is that the people live on the coast in scattered settlements, without power infrastructure. Based on this a wind power potential project was established in 2002, funded by the Greenlandic government and the Technical University of Denmark. We present results and experiences of the campaign. 1 Field campaign There were only a few climate stations in or close to settlements and due to their positioning and instrumentation, they were not usable for wind resource estimation. To establish met stations in Arctic areas with complex topography, there are some challenges to face; mast positioning in complex terrain, severe weather conditions, instrumentation, data handling, installation and maintenance budget. The terrain in the ice free and populated part, mainly consists of mountains of different heights and shapes, separated by deep fjords going from the ice cap to the sea. With a generally low wind resource the focus was on the most exposed positions close to the settlements. Data from the nearest existing climate stations was studied for background estimations of predominant wind directions and extreme wind speeds, and based on that the first 10m masts were erected in 2003. 2 Instruments The first installations used standard NRG systems with low cost NRG instruments. For most of the sites this low cost setup did a good job, but there were some problems with the first design, including instrument and boom strains. In subsequent years, the systems were updated several times to be able to operate in the extreme conditions. Different types of instruments, data logger and boom systems were tested to get better data quality and reliability. Today 11 stations with heights ranging from 10-50m are installed and equipped according to the IEC standard. During the first years, the influence of instrument icing was not considered, but recently one of the sites was equipped with an ice rate sensor and a heated ultrasonic anemometer to study the ice influence. 3 Results The predominant wind direction for most sites is away from the ice cap at the center of the continent, but for some coastal sites it is north or south. The north-south wind pattern is expected from the synoptic patterns and the barrier effect of the ice cap. The sites where the predominant wind direction is away from the inland ice are dominated by katabatic wind systems from the ice cap and form valley systems. These sites also seem to have the highest wind resource and will be studied further. A good example of the influence of katabatic and thermal wind systems can be seen in the measurement data from Sarfannguit and Nanortalik 66 and 60 degrees northern latitude respectively. In future work, these katabatic flows and their impact on the wind resource will be studied using mesoscale modelling and microscale downscaling.

Wind-Tunnel Tests of Ailerons at Various Speeds. 1 - Ailerons of 0.20 Airfoil Chord and Tube Contour with 0.35 Aileron-Chord Extreme Blunt Nose Balance on the NACA 66,2-216 Airfoil

DTIC Science & Technology

1943-06-01

which includes effectelof boundary layer at the tunnel wall and of gaps at the ends of the aileron as well as the effects of any cross flow over the...the gap width cauaed a d? urease in the slope except at the highest speed tested where an increase in gap resulted in an increase in the slope. Figure 13

Bernoulli-Langevin Wind Speed Model for Simulation of Storm Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fürstenau, Norbert; Mittendorf, Monika

2016-12-01

We present a simple nonlinear dynamics Langevin model for predicting the instationary wind speed profile during storm events typically accompanying extreme low-pressure situations. It is based on a second-degree Bernoulli equation with δ-correlated Gaussian noise and may complement stationary stochastic wind models. Transition between increasing and decreasing wind speed and (quasi) stationary normal wind and storm states are induced by the sign change of the controlling time-dependent rate parameter k(t). This approach corresponds to the simplified nonlinear laser dynamics for the incoherent to coherent transition of light emission that can be understood by a phase transition analogy within equilibrium thermodynamics [H. Haken, Synergetics, 3rd ed., Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg, New York 1983/2004.]. Evidence for the nonlinear dynamics two-state approach is generated by fitting of two historical wind speed profiles (low-pressure situations "Xaver" and "Christian", 2013) taken from Meteorological Terminal Air Report weather data, with a logistic approximation (i.e. constant rate coefficients k) to the solution of our dynamical model using a sum of sigmoid functions. The analytical solution of our dynamical two-state Bernoulli equation as obtained with a sinusoidal rate ansatz k(t) of period T (=storm duration) exhibits reasonable agreement with the logistic fit to the empirical data. Noise parameter estimates of speed fluctuations are derived from empirical fit residuals and by means of a stationary solution of the corresponding Fokker-Planck equation. Numerical simulations with the Bernoulli-Langevin equation demonstrate the potential for stochastic wind speed profile modeling and predictive filtering under extreme storm events that is suggested for applications in anticipative air traffic management.

Influence of tooth position on wind instrumentalists' performance and embouchure comfort : A systematic review.

PubMed

van der Weijden, F N; Kuitert, R B; Berkhout, F R U; van der Weijden, G A

2018-05-01

To systematically search the scientific literature concerning the influence of tooth position on wind instrumentalists' performance and embouchure comfort. The PubMed, Cochrane, and Embase databases were searched up to November 2017. The main orthodontic journals were searched for papers older than the inception date of PubMed. Grey literature was sought via Google Scholar. Eligible studies were critically appraised and analysed. The searches retrieved 54 papers. Only two met the inclusion criteria. Searching the orthodontic journals and Google Scholar resulted in two additional eligible studies. All four studies had a cross-sectional design. The sample sizes ranged from 20-100 participants, varying from children to professional musicians. Because of a large heterogeneity in outcome variables, no meta-analysis could be performed. Descriptive analysis shows that there are indications that tooth irregularities have a negative influence on embouchure comfort and performance of a wind instrument player. A large overjet may impede the embouchure of brass musicians and may have a negative influence on trumpet player performance. A wide jaw form seems more beneficial to trumpet player performance than a small jaw form. Furthermore, players of all types of wind instruments can experience embouchure difficulties from extreme spacing or an open bite. Tooth position can influence musical performance and embouchure comfort of wind instrumentalists. A Class I relationship without malocclusion seems appropriate for every type of wind instrument. The more extreme the malocclusion, the greater the interference with wind instrumentalists' performance and embouchure comfort. Evidence however is limited.

Increased frequency of extreme Indian Ocean Dipole events due to greenhouse warming.

PubMed

Cai, Wenju; Santoso, Agus; Wang, Guojian; Weller, Evan; Wu, Lixin; Ashok, Karumuri; Masumoto, Yukio; Yamagata, Toshio

2014-06-12

The Indian Ocean dipole is a prominent mode of coupled ocean-atmosphere variability, affecting the lives of millions of people in Indian Ocean rim countries. In its positive phase, sea surface temperatures are lower than normal off the Sumatra-Java coast, but higher in the western tropical Indian Ocean. During the extreme positive-IOD (pIOD) events of 1961, 1994 and 1997, the eastern cooling strengthened and extended westward along the equatorial Indian Ocean through strong reversal of both the mean westerly winds and the associated eastward-flowing upper ocean currents. This created anomalously dry conditions from the eastern to the central Indian Ocean along the Equator and atmospheric convergence farther west, leading to catastrophic floods in eastern tropical African countries but devastating droughts in eastern Indian Ocean rim countries. Despite these serious consequences, the response of pIOD events to greenhouse warming is unknown. Here, using an ensemble of climate models forced by a scenario of high greenhouse gas emissions (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5), we project that the frequency of extreme pIOD events will increase by almost a factor of three, from one event every 17.3 years over the twentieth century to one event every 6.3 years over the twenty-first century. We find that a mean state change--with weakening of both equatorial westerly winds and eastward oceanic currents in association with a faster warming in the western than the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean--facilitates more frequent occurrences of wind and oceanic current reversal. This leads to more frequent extreme pIOD events, suggesting an increasing frequency of extreme climate and weather events in regions affected by the pIOD.

Simulations of horizontal roll vortex development above lines of extreme surface heating

Treesearch

W.E. Heilman; J.D. Fast

1992-01-01

A two-dimensional, nonhydrostatic, coupled, earth/atmospheric model has been used to simulate mean and turbulent atmospheric characteristics near lines of extreme surface heating. Prognostic equations are used to solve for the horizontal and vertical wind components, potential temperature, and turbulent kinetic energy (TKE). The model computes nonhydrostatic pressure...

Atmostpheric simulations of extreme surface heating episodes on simple hills

Treesearch

W.E. Heilman

1992-01-01

A two-dimensional nonhydrostatic atmospheric model was used to simulate the circulation patterns (wind and vorticity) and turbulence energy fields associated with lines of extreme surface heating on simple two-dimensional hills. Heating-line locations and ambient crossflow conditions were varied to qualitatively determine the impact of terrain geometry on the...

Assessment and Analysis of QuikSCAT Vector Wind Products for the Gulf of Mexico: A Long-Term and Hurricane Analysis.

PubMed

Sharma, Neha; D'Sa, Eurico

2008-03-18

The northern Gulf of Mexico is a region that has been frequently impacted in recent years by natural disasters such as hurricanes. The use of remote sensing data such as winds from NASA's QuikSCAT satellite sensor would be useful for emergency preparedness during such events. In this study, the performance of QuikSCAT products, including JPL's latest Level 2B (L2B) 12.5 km swath winds, were evaluated with respect to buoy-measured winds in the Gulf of Mexico for the period January 2005 to February 2007. Regression analyses indicated better accuracy of QuikSCAT's L2B DIRTH, 12.5 km than the Level 3 (L3), 25 km wind product. QuikSCAT wind data were compared directly with buoy data keeping a maximum time interval of 20 min and spatial interval of 0.1° (≈10 km). R² values for moderate wind speeds were 0.88 and 0.93 for L2B, and 0.75 and 0.89 for L3 for speed and direction, respectively. QuikSCAT wind comparisons for buoys located offshore were better than those located near the coast. Hurricanes that took place during 2002-06 were studied individually to obtain regressions of QuikSCAT versus buoys for those events. Results show QuikSCAT's L2B DIRTH wind product compared well with buoys during hurricanes up to the limit of buoy measurements. Comparisons with the National Hurricane Center (NHC) best track analyses indicated QuikSCAT winds to be lower than those obtained by NHC, possibly due to rain contamination, while buoy measurements appeared to be constrained at high wind speeds. This study has confirmed good agreement of the new QuikSCAT L2B product with buoy measurements and further suggests its potential use during extreme weather conditions in the Gulf of Mexico.

Geologic effects of hurricanes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coch, Nicholas K.

1994-08-01

Hurricanes are intense low pressure systems of tropical origin. Hurricane damage results from storm surge, wind, and inland flooding from heavy rainfall. Field observations and remote sensing of recent major hurricanes such as Hugo (1989), Andrew (1992) and Iniki (1992) are providing new insights into the mechanisms producing damage in these major storms. Velocities associated with hurricanes include the counterclockwise vortex winds flowing around the eye and the much slower regional winds that steer hurricane and move it forward. Vectorial addition of theseof these two winds on the higher effective wind speed than on the left side. Coast-parallel hurricane tracks keep the weaker left side of the storm against the coast, whereas coast-normal tracks produce a wide swath of destruction as the more powerful right side of the storm cuts a swath of destruction hundreds of kilometers inland. Storm surge is a function of the wind speed, central pressure, shelf slope, shoreline configuration, and anthropogenic alterations to the shoreline. Maximum surge heights are not under the eye of the hurricane, where the pressure is lowest, but on the right side of the eye at the radius of maximum winds, where the winds are strongest. Flood surge occurs as the hurricane approaches land and drives coastal waters, and superimposed waves, across the shore. Ebb surge occurs when impounded surface water flows seaward as the storm moves inland. Flood and ebb surge damage have been greatly increased in recent hurricanes as a result of anthropogenic changes along the shoreline. Hurricane wind damage occurs on three scales — megascale, mesoscale and microscale. Local wind damage is a function of wind speed, exposure and structural resistance to velocity pressure, wind drag and flying debris. Localized extreme damage is caused by gusts that can locally exceed sustained winds by a factor of two in areas where there is strong convective activity. Geologic changes occuring in hurricanes include beach erosion, dune erosion, inlet formation from flood and ebb surge, landscape changes through tree destruction by wind and nearshore channeling and sedimentation resulting from ebb surge. Multi-decadal wet and dry cycles in West Africa seem to be associated with increases (wet periods) and decreases (dry periods) in the frequency of Atlantic Coast landfalling hurricanes. Coastalzone population and development has increased markedly in a time of low hurricane frequency in the 24 year dry cycle from1970 to the present. However, no previous climatic cycle in this century has exceeded 26 years. We may entering a multi-decadal cycle of greater hurricane activity, placing these highly urbanized shorelines in considerable danger.

Generating short-term probabilistic wind power scenarios via nonparametric forecast error density estimators: Generating short-term probabilistic wind power scenarios via nonparametric forecast error density estimators

DOE PAGES

Staid, Andrea; Watson, Jean -Paul; Wets, Roger J. -B.; ...

2017-07-11

Forecasts of available wind power are critical in key electric power systems operations planning problems, including economic dispatch and unit commitment. Such forecasts are necessarily uncertain, limiting the reliability and cost effectiveness of operations planning models based on a single deterministic or “point” forecast. A common approach to address this limitation involves the use of a number of probabilistic scenarios, each specifying a possible trajectory of wind power production, with associated probability. We present and analyze a novel method for generating probabilistic wind power scenarios, leveraging available historical information in the form of forecasted and corresponding observed wind power timemore » series. We estimate non-parametric forecast error densities, specifically using epi-spline basis functions, allowing us to capture the skewed and non-parametric nature of error densities observed in real-world data. We then describe a method to generate probabilistic scenarios from these basis functions that allows users to control for the degree to which extreme errors are captured.We compare the performance of our approach to the current state-of-the-art considering publicly available data associated with the Bonneville Power Administration, analyzing aggregate production of a number of wind farms over a large geographic region. Finally, we discuss the advantages of our approach in the context of specific power systems operations planning problems: stochastic unit commitment and economic dispatch. Here, our methodology is embodied in the joint Sandia – University of California Davis Prescient software package for assessing and analyzing stochastic operations strategies.« less

Generating short-term probabilistic wind power scenarios via nonparametric forecast error density estimators: Generating short-term probabilistic wind power scenarios via nonparametric forecast error density estimators

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Staid, Andrea; Watson, Jean -Paul; Wets, Roger J. -B.

Forecasts of available wind power are critical in key electric power systems operations planning problems, including economic dispatch and unit commitment. Such forecasts are necessarily uncertain, limiting the reliability and cost effectiveness of operations planning models based on a single deterministic or “point” forecast. A common approach to address this limitation involves the use of a number of probabilistic scenarios, each specifying a possible trajectory of wind power production, with associated probability. We present and analyze a novel method for generating probabilistic wind power scenarios, leveraging available historical information in the form of forecasted and corresponding observed wind power timemore » series. We estimate non-parametric forecast error densities, specifically using epi-spline basis functions, allowing us to capture the skewed and non-parametric nature of error densities observed in real-world data. We then describe a method to generate probabilistic scenarios from these basis functions that allows users to control for the degree to which extreme errors are captured.We compare the performance of our approach to the current state-of-the-art considering publicly available data associated with the Bonneville Power Administration, analyzing aggregate production of a number of wind farms over a large geographic region. Finally, we discuss the advantages of our approach in the context of specific power systems operations planning problems: stochastic unit commitment and economic dispatch. Here, our methodology is embodied in the joint Sandia – University of California Davis Prescient software package for assessing and analyzing stochastic operations strategies.« less

Airfoil family design for large offshore wind turbine blades

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Méndez, B.; Munduate, X.; San Miguel, U.

2014-06-01

Wind turbine blades size has scaled-up during last years due to wind turbine platform increase especially for offshore applications. The EOLIA project 2007-2010 (Spanish Goverment funded project) was focused on the design of large offshore wind turbines for deep waters. The project was managed by ACCIONA Energia and the wind turbine technology was designed by ACCIONA Windpower. The project included the design of a wind turbine airfoil family especially conceived for large offshore wind turbine blades, in the order of 5MW machine. Large offshore wind turbines suffer high extreme loads due to their size, in addition the lack of noise restrictions allow higher tip speeds. Consequently, the airfoils presented in this work are designed for high Reynolds numbers with the main goal of reducing blade loads and mantainig power production. The new airfoil family was designed in collaboration with CENER (Spanish National Renewable Energy Centre). The airfoil family was designed using a evolutionary algorithm based optimization tool with different objectives, both aerodynamic and structural, coupled with an airfoil geometry generation tool. Force coefficients of the designed airfoil were obtained using the panel code XFOIL in which the boundary layer/inviscid flow coupling is ineracted via surface transpiration model. The desing methodology includes a novel technique to define the objective functions based on normalizing the functions using weight parameters created from data of airfoils used as reference. Four airfoils have been designed, here three of them will be presented, with relative thickness of 18%, 21%, 25%, which have been verified with the in-house CFD code, Wind Multi Block WMB, and later validated with wind tunnel experiments. Some of the objectives for the designed airfoils concern the aerodynamic behavior (high efficiency and lift, high tangential coefficient, insensitivity to rough conditions, etc.), others concern the geometry (good for structural design, compatibility for the different airfoil family members, etc.) and with the ultimate objective that the airfoils will reduce the blade loads. In this paper the whole airfoil design process and the main characteristics of the airfoil family are described. Some force coefficients for the design Reynolds number are also presented. The new designed airfoils have been studied with computational calculations (panel method code and CFD) and also in a wind tunnel experimental campaign. Some of these results will be also presented in this paper.

Human cold stress of strong local-wind "Hijikawa-arashi" in Japan, based on the UTCI index and thermo-physiological responses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ohashi, Yukitaka; Katsuta, Takumi; Tani, Haruka; Okabayashi, Taiki; Miyahara, Satoshi; Miyashita, Ryoji

2018-03-01

We investigated the cold stress caused by a strong local wind called "Hijikawa-arashi," through in situ vital measurements and the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI). This wind is a very interesting winter phenomenon, localized in an area within 1 km of the seashore in Ozu City, Ehime Prefecture in Japan. When a strong Hijikawa-arashi (HA) occurred at 14-15 m s-1, the UTCI decreased to - 30 °C along the bridge where commuting residents are the most exposed to strong and cold winds. On the bridge, most participants in our experiment felt "very cold" or "extremely cold." The UTCI of HA can be predicted from a multiple regression equation using wind speed and air temperature. The cold HA wind is also harmful to human thermo-physiological responses. It leads to higher blood pressure and increased heart rate, both of which act as cardiovascular stress triggers. Increases of 6-10 mmHg and 3-6 bpm for every 10 °C reduction in UTCI were seen on all observational days, including HA and non-HA days. In fact, the participants' body skin temperatures decreased by approximately 1.2 to 1.7 °C for every 10 °C reduction in UTCI. Thus, the UTCI variation due to the HA outbreak corresponded well with the cold sensation and thermo-physiological responses in humans. This result suggests that daily UTCI monitoring enables the prediction of thermo-physiological responses to the HA cold stress.

An observational and modeling study of the August 2017 Florida climate extreme event.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Konduru, R.; Singh, V.; Routray, A.

2017-12-01

A special report on the climate extremes by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) elucidates that the sole cause of disasters is due to the exposure and vulnerability of the human and natural system to the climate extremes. The cause of such a climate extreme could be anthropogenic or non-anthropogenic. Therefore, it is challenging to discern the critical factor of influence for a particular climate extreme. Such kind of perceptive study with reasonable confidence on climate extreme events is possible only if there exist any past case studies. A similar rarest climate extreme problem encountered in the case of Houston floods and extreme rainfall over Florida in August 2017. A continuum of hurricanes like Harvey and Irma targeted the Florida region and caused catastrophe. Due to the rarity of August 2017 Florida climate extreme event, it requires the in-depth study on this case. To understand the multi-faceted nature of the event, a study on the development of the Harvey hurricane and its progression and dynamics is significant. Current article focus on the observational and modeling study on the Harvey hurricane. A global model named as NCUM (The global UK Met office Unified Model (UM) operational at National Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting, India, was utilized to simulate the Harvey hurricane. The simulated rainfall and wind fields were compared with the observational datasets like Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission rainfall datasets and Era-Interim wind fields. The National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) automated tracking system was utilized to track the Harvey hurricane, and the tracks were analyzed statistically for different forecasts concerning the Harvey hurricane track of Joint Typhon Warning Centre. Further, the current study will be continued to investigate the atmospheric processes involved in the August 2017 Florida climate extreme event.

Bearing failure detection of micro wind turbine via power spectral density analysis for stator current signals spectrum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mahmood, Faleh H.; Kadhim, Hussein T.; Resen, Ali K.; Shaban, Auday H.

2018-05-01

The failure such as air gap weirdness, rubbing, and scrapping between stator and rotor generator arise unavoidably and may cause extremely terrible results for a wind turbine. Therefore, we should pay more attention to detect and identify its cause-bearing failure in wind turbine to improve the operational reliability. The current paper tends to use of power spectral density analysis method of detecting internal race and external race bearing failure in micro wind turbine by estimation stator current signal of the generator. The failure detector method shows that it is well suited and effective for bearing failure detection.

Global Magnetosphere Evolution During 22 June 2015 Geomagnetic Storm as Seen From Multipoint Observations and Comparison With MHD-Ring Rurrent Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buzulukova, N.; Moore, T. E.; Dorelli, J.; Fok, M. C. H.; Sibeck, D. G.; Angelopoulos, V.; Goldstein, J.; Valek, P. W.; McComas, D. J.

2015-12-01

On 22-23 June 2015 a severe geomagnetic storm occurred with Dst minimum of approximately -200nT. During this extreme event, multipoint observations of magnetospheric dynamics were obtained by a fleet of Geospace spacecraft including MMS, TWINS, Van-Allen and THEMIS. We present analysis of satellite data during that event, and use a global coupled MHD-ring current model (BATSRUS-CRCM) to connect multipoint observations from different parts of the magnetosphere. The analysis helps to identify different magnetospheric domains from multipoint measurements and various magnetospheric boundary motions. We will explore how the initial disturbance from the solar wind propagates through the magnetosphere causing energization of plasma in the inner magnetosphere and producing an extreme geomagnetic storm.

Gusts and shear within hurricane eyewalls can exceed offshore wind turbine design standards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Worsnop, Rochelle P.; Lundquist, Julie K.; Bryan, George H.; Damiani, Rick; Musial, Walt

2017-06-01

Offshore wind energy development is underway in the U.S., with proposed sites located in hurricane-prone regions. Turbine design criteria outlined by the International Electrotechnical Commission do not encompass the extreme wind speeds and directional shifts of hurricanes stronger than category 2. We examine a hurricane's turbulent eyewall using large-eddy simulations with Cloud Model 1. Gusts and mean wind speeds near the eyewall of a category 5 hurricane exceed the current Class I turbine design threshold of 50 m s-1 mean wind and 70 m s-1 gusts. Largest gust factors occur at the eye-eyewall interface. Further, shifts in wind direction suggest that turbines must rotate or yaw faster than current practice. Although current design standards omit mention of wind direction change across the rotor layer, large values (15-50°) suggest that veer should be considered.

Gusts and shear within hurricane eyewalls can exceed offshore wind turbine design standards

DOE PAGES

Worsnop, Rochelle P.; Lundquist, Julie K.; Bryan, George H.; ...

2017-05-30

Here, offshore wind energy development is underway in the U.S., with proposed sites located in hurricane-prone regions. Turbine design criteria outlined by the International Electrotechnical Commission do not encompass the extreme wind speeds and directional shifts of hurricanes stronger than category 2. We examine a hurricane's turbulent eyewall using large-eddy simulations with Cloud Model 1. Gusts and mean wind speeds near the eyewall of a category 5 hurricane exceed the current Class I turbine design threshold of 50 m s –1 mean wind and 70 m s –1 gusts. Largest gust factors occur at the eye-eyewall interface. Further, shifts inmore » wind direction suggest that turbines must rotate or yaw faster than current practice. Although current design standards omit mention of wind direction change across the rotor layer, large values (15–50°) suggest that veer should be considered.« less

Gusts and shear within hurricane eyewalls can exceed offshore wind turbine design standards

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Worsnop, Rochelle P.; Lundquist, Julie K.; Bryan, George H.

Here, offshore wind energy development is underway in the U.S., with proposed sites located in hurricane-prone regions. Turbine design criteria outlined by the International Electrotechnical Commission do not encompass the extreme wind speeds and directional shifts of hurricanes stronger than category 2. We examine a hurricane's turbulent eyewall using large-eddy simulations with Cloud Model 1. Gusts and mean wind speeds near the eyewall of a category 5 hurricane exceed the current Class I turbine design threshold of 50 m s –1 mean wind and 70 m s –1 gusts. Largest gust factors occur at the eye-eyewall interface. Further, shifts inmore » wind direction suggest that turbines must rotate or yaw faster than current practice. Although current design standards omit mention of wind direction change across the rotor layer, large values (15–50°) suggest that veer should be considered.« less

Forecasting extreme temperature health hazards in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Di Napoli, Claudia; Pappenberger, Florian; Cloke, Hannah L.

2017-04-01

Extreme hot temperatures, such as those experienced during a heat wave, represent a dangerous meteorological hazard to human health. Heat disorders such as sunstroke are harmful to people of all ages and responsible for excess mortality in the affected areas. In 2003 more than 50,000 people died in western and southern Europe because of a severe and sustained episode of summer heat [1]. Furthermore, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change heat waves are expected to get more frequent in the future thus posing an increasing threat to human lives. Developing appropriate tools for extreme hot temperatures prediction is therefore mandatory to increase public preparedness and mitigate heat-induced impacts. A recent study has shown that forecasts of the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) provide a valid overview of extreme temperature health hazards on a global scale [2]. UTCI is a parameter related to the temperature of the human body and its regulatory responses to the surrounding atmospheric environment. UTCI is calculated using an advanced thermo-physiological model that includes the human heat budget, physiology and clothing. To forecast UTCI the model uses meteorological inputs, such as 2m air temperature, 2m water vapour pressure and wind velocity at body height derived from 10m wind speed, from NWP models. Here we examine the potential of UTCI as an extreme hot temperature prediction tool for the European area. UTCI forecasts calculated using above-mentioned parameters from ECMWF models are presented. The skill in predicting UTCI for medium lead times is also analysed and discussed for implementation to international health-hazard warning systems. This research is supported by the ANYWHERE project (EnhANcing emergencY management and response to extreme WeatHER and climate Events) which is funded by the European Commission's HORIZON2020 programme. [1] Koppe C. et al., Heat waves: risks and responses. World Health Organization. Health and Global Environmental Change, Series No. 2, Copenhagen, Denmark, 2004. [2] Pappenberger F. et al., Global forecasting of thermal health hazards: the skill of probabilistic predictions of the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI), International Journal of Biometeorology 59(3): 311-323, 2015.

Heavy Tail Behavior of Rainfall Extremes across Germany

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Castellarin, A.; Kreibich, H.; Vorogushyn, S.; Merz, B.

2017-12-01

Distributions are termed heavy-tailed if extreme values are more likely than would be predicted by probability distributions that have exponential asymptotic behavior. Heavy-tail behavior often leads to surprise, because historical observations can be a poor guide for the future. Heavy-tail behavior seems to be widespread for hydro-meteorological extremes, such as extreme rainfall and flood events. To date there have been only vague hints to explain under which conditions these extremes show heavy-tail behavior. We use an observational data set consisting of 11 climate variables at 1440 stations across Germany. This homogenized, gap-free data set covers 110 years (1901-2010) at daily resolution. We estimate the upper tail behavior, including its uncertainty interval, of daily precipitation extremes for the 1,440 stations at the annual and seasonal time scales. Different tail indicators are tested, including the shape parameter of the Generalized Extreme Value distribution, the upper tail ratio and the obesity index. In a further step, we explore to which extent the tail behavior can be explained by geographical and climate factors. A large number of characteristics is derived, such as station elevation, degree of continentality, aridity, measures for quantifying the variability of humidity and wind velocity, or event-triggering large-scale atmospheric situation. The link between the upper tail behavior and these characteristics is investigated via data mining methods capable of detecting non-linear relationships in large data sets. This exceptionally rich observational data set, in terms of number of stations, length of time series and number of explaining variables, allows insights into the upper tail behavior which is rarely possible given the typical observational data sets available.

Wind Turbine Tribology Seminar - A Recap

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Errichello, R.; Sheng, S.; Keller, J.

Tribology is the science and engineering of interacting surfaces in relative motion. It includes the study and application of the principles of friction, lubrication, and wear. It is an important phenomenon that not only impacts the design and operation of wind turbine gearboxes, but also their subsequent maintenance requirements and overall reliability. With the major growth and increasing dependency on renewable energy, mechanical reliability is an extremely important issue. The Wind Turbine Tribology Seminar was convened to explore the state-of-the-art in wind turbine tribology and lubricant technologies, raise industry awareness of a very complex topic, present the science behind eachmore » technology, and identify possible R&D areas. To understand the background of work that had already been accomplished, and to consolidate some level of collective understanding of tribology by acknowledged experts, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Argonne National Laboratory (ANL), and the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) hosted a wind turbine tribology seminar. It was held at the Renaissance Boulder Flatiron Hotel in Broomfield, Colorado on November 15-17, 2011. This report is a summary of the content and conclusions. The presentations given at the meeting can be downloaded. Interested readers who were not at the meeting may wish to consult the detailed publications listed in the bibliography section, obtain the cited articles in the public domain, or contact the authors directly.« less

78 FR 28258 - mPower\\TM\\ Design-Specific Review Standard

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-05-14

... Public Documents'' and then select ``Begin Web- based ADAMS Search.'' For problems with ADAMS, please... Classification ML12272A013 3.2.2 System Quality Group ML12272A015 Classification. 3.3.1 Severe Wind Loading... ML12324A156 3.3.2 Extreme Wind Loads ML12324A166 (Tornado and Hurricane Loads). 3.4.1 Internal Flood...

A climatology of extreme wave height events impacting eastern Lake Ontario shorelines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grieco, Matthew B.; DeGaetano, Arthur T.

2018-05-01

Model-derived wave height data for points along the eastern Lake Ontario shoreline provide the basis for a 36-year climatology of extreme wave heights. The most extreme wave heights exceed 6 m at all locations, except for those along the extreme northeastern shoreline of the Lake. Typically extreme wave events are a regional phenomenon, affecting multiple locations along the eastern and southeastern shoreline. A pronounced seasonal cycle in wave event occurrence is characterized by peaks in autumn and spring, with an absence of 99.9th percentile wave heights during summer. Less extreme (90th percentile heights) occur in all months with a peak in winter. Extreme wave events are most often associated with a low pressure center tracking to the north of Lake Ontario from the Ohio Valley. This track produces the strong winds > 10 ms-1 and predominantly west-to-east wind fetch that characterize high wave height events. The seasonal frequency of the wave events exceeding the historical 95th percentile has shown a statistically significant increase at most locations since 1979. This has been partially offset by declines in the frequency of events with wave heights between the 90 and 95th percentile. Seasonal extreme wave height frequency is also found to be related to the occurrence of El Niño. During El Niño winters, there are significantly fewer events with wave heights exceeding 2.5 m than would be expected by chance. A corresponding relationship to La Niña occurrence is not evident.

Statistical uncertainty of extreme wind storms over Europe derived from a probabilistic clustering technique

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walz, Michael; Leckebusch, Gregor C.

2016-04-01

Extratropical wind storms pose one of the most dangerous and loss intensive natural hazards for Europe. However, due to only 50 years of high quality observational data, it is difficult to assess the statistical uncertainty of these sparse events just based on observations. Over the last decade seasonal ensemble forecasts have become indispensable in quantifying the uncertainty of weather prediction on seasonal timescales. In this study seasonal forecasts are used in a climatological context: By making use of the up to 51 ensemble members, a broad and physically consistent statistical base can be created. This base can then be used to assess the statistical uncertainty of extreme wind storm occurrence more accurately. In order to determine the statistical uncertainty of storms with different paths of progression, a probabilistic clustering approach using regression mixture models is used to objectively assign storm tracks (either based on core pressure or on extreme wind speeds) to different clusters. The advantage of this technique is that the entire lifetime of a storm is considered for the clustering algorithm. Quadratic curves are found to describe the storm tracks most accurately. Three main clusters (diagonal, horizontal or vertical progression of the storm track) can be identified, each of which have their own particulate features. Basic storm features like average velocity and duration are calculated and compared for each cluster. The main benefit of this clustering technique, however, is to evaluate if the clusters show different degrees of uncertainty, e.g. more (less) spread for tracks approaching Europe horizontally (diagonally). This statistical uncertainty is compared for different seasonal forecast products.

Hurricane Charley Exposure and Hazard of Preterm Delivery, Florida 2004.

PubMed

Grabich, Shannon C; Robinson, Whitney R; Engel, Stephanie M; Konrad, Charles E; Richardson, David B; Horney, Jennifer A

2016-12-01

Objective Hurricanes are powerful tropical storm systems with high winds which influence many health effects. Few studies have examined whether hurricane exposure is associated with preterm delivery. We aimed to estimate associations between maternal hurricane exposure and hazard of preterm delivery. Methods We used data on 342,942 singleton births from Florida Vital Statistics Records 2004-2005 to capture pregnancies at risk of delivery during the 2004 hurricane season. Maternal exposure to Hurricane Charley was assigned based on maximum wind speed in maternal county of residence. We estimated hazards of overall preterm delivery (<37 gestational weeks) and extremely preterm delivery (<32 gestational weeks) in Cox regression models, adjusting for maternal/pregnancy characteristics. To evaluate heterogeneity among racial/ethnic subgroups, we performed analyses stratified by race/ethnicity. Additional models investigated whether exposure to multiples hurricanes increased hazard relative to exposure to one hurricane. Results Exposure to wind speeds ≥39 mph from Hurricane Charley was associated with a 9 % (95 % CI 3, 16 %) increase in hazard of extremely preterm delivery, while exposure to wind speed ≥74 mph was associated with a 21 % (95 % CI 6, 38 %) increase. Associations appeared greater for Hispanic mothers compared to non-Hispanic white mothers. Hurricane exposure did not appear to be associated with hazard of overall preterm delivery. Exposure to multiple hurricanes did not appear more harmful than exposure to a single hurricane. Conclusions Hurricane exposure may increase hazard of extremely preterm delivery. As US coastal populations and hurricane severity increase, the associations between hurricane and preterm delivery should be further studied.

Vorticity and turbulence observations during a wildland fire on sloped terrain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Contezac, J.; Clements, C. B.; Hall, D.; Seto, D.; Davis, B.

2013-12-01

Fire-atmosphere interactions represent an atmospheric boundary-layer regime typically associated with complex circulations that interact with the fire front. In mountainous terrain, these interactions are compounded by terrain-driven circulations that often lead to extreme fire behavior. To better understand the role of complex terrain on fire behavior, a set of field experiments was conducted in June 2012 in the Coast Range of central California. The experiments were conducted on steep valley sidewalls to allow fires to spread upslope. Instrumentation used to measure fire-atmosphere interactions included three micrometeorological towers arranged along the slope and equipped with sonic anemometers, heat flux radiometers, and fine-wire thermocouples. In addition, a scanning Doppler lidar was used to measured winds within and above the valley, and airborne video imagery was collected to monitor fire behavior characteristics. The experimental site was located on the leeside of a ridge where terrain-induced flow and opposing mesoscale winds aloft interacted to create a zone of high wind shear. During the burn, the interaction between the fire and atmosphere caused the generation of several fire whirls that develop as a result of several environmental conditions including shear-generated vorticity and fire front geometry. Airborne video imagery indicated that upon ignition, the plume tilted in the opposite direction from the fire movement suggesting that higher horizontal momentum from aloft was brought to the surface, resulting in much slower fire spread rates due to opposing winds. However, after the fire front had passed the lowest tower located at the base of the slope, a shift in wind speed and direction caused a fire whirl to develop near an L-shaped kink in the fire front. Preliminary results indicate that at this time, winds at the bottom of the slope began to rotate with horizontal vorticity values of -0.2 s^-1. Increased heat flux values at this time indicated that winds were continuing to transport heat towards the slope. As the winds shifted with the fire whirl, heat flux values returned to ambient indicating the passage of the fire plume. A 0.15 hPa decrease in pressure was also observed at the first tower during this period. Further analyses to be presented include vorticity estimates from the Doppler lidar and turbulence kinetic energy measurements from the in situ towers.

Origin of the 2016 QBO Disruption and Its Relationship to Extreme El Niño Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barton, C. A.; McCormack, J. P.

2017-11-01

The descent of the westerly phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) in equatorial stratospheric zonal wind was interrupted by the development of easterlies near 40 hPa ( 23 km altitude) in early 2016. We use tropical meteorological analyses of wind and temperature to describe in detail the special circumstances by which equatorward-propagating planetary waves produced this unprecedented disruption in the QBO. Our findings show that the subtropical easterly jet in the winter lower stratosphere during the 2015-2016 winter was anomalously weak owing to (1) the timing of the QBO relative to the annual cycle and (2) an extreme El Niño event. The weak jet allowed an unusually large flux of westward momentum to propagate from the extratropical Northern Hemisphere to the equator near the 40 hPa level. Consequently, the QBO westerlies at that level experienced sustained easterly acceleration from extratropical wave breaking, leading to the observed wind reversal.

Fragmentation increases wind disturbance impacts on forest structure and carbon stocks in a western Amazonian landscape.

PubMed

Schwartz, Naomi B; Uriarte, María; DeFries, Ruth; Bedka, Kristopher M; Fernandes, Katia; Gutiérrez-Vélez, Victor; Pinedo-Vasquez, Miguel A

2017-09-01

Tropical second-growth forests could help mitigate climate change, but the degree to which their carbon potential is achieved will depend on exposure to disturbance. Wind disturbance is common in tropical forests, shaping structure, composition, and function, and influencing successional trajectories. However, little is known about the impacts of extreme winds on second-growth forests in fragmented landscapes, though these ecosystems are often located in mosaics of forest, pasture, cropland, and other land cover types. Indirect evidence suggests that fragmentation increases risk of wind damage in tropical forests, but no studies have found such impacts following severe storms. In this study, we ask whether fragmentation and forest type (old vs. second growth) were associated with variation in wind damage after a severe convective storm in a fragmented production landscape in western Amazonia. We applied linear spectral unmixing to Landsat 8 imagery from before and after the storm, and combined it with field observations of damage to map wind effects on forest structure and biomass. We also used Landsat 8 imagery to map land cover with the goals of identifying old- and second-growth forest and characterizing fragmentation. We used these data to assess variation in wind disturbance across 95,596 ha of forest, distributed over 6,110 patches. We find that fragmentation is significantly associated with wind damage, with damage severity higher at forest edges and in edgier, more isolated patches. Damage was also more severe in old-growth than in second-growth forests, but this effect was weaker than that of fragmentation. These results illustrate the importance of considering landscape context in planning tropical forest restoration and natural regeneration projects. Assessments of long-term carbon sequestration potential need to consider spatial variation in disturbance exposure. Where risk of extreme winds is high, minimizing fragmentation and isolation could increase carbon sequestration potential. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

Mind the wind: microclimate effects on incubation effort of an arctic seabird.

PubMed

Høyvik Hilde, Christoffer; Pélabon, Christophe; Guéry, Loreleï; Gabrielsen, Geir Wing; Descamps, Sébastien

2016-04-01

The energetic costs of reproduction in birds strongly depend on the climate experienced during incubation. Climate change and increasing frequency of extreme weather events may severely affect these costs, especially for species incubating in extreme environments. In this 3-year study, we used an experimental approach to investigate the effects of microclimate and nest shelter on the incubation effort of female common eiders (Somateria mollissima) in a wild Arctic population. We added artificial shelters to a random selection of nesting females, and compared incubation effort, measured as body mass loss during incubation, between females with and without shelter. Nonsheltered females had a higher incubation effort than females with artificial shelters. In nonsheltered females, higher wind speeds increased the incubation effort, while artificially sheltered females experienced no effect of wind. Although increasing ambient temperatures tended to decrease incubation effort, this effect was negligible in the absence of wind. Humidity had no marked effect on incubation effort. This study clearly displays the direct effect of a climatic variable on an important aspect of avian life-history. By showing that increasing wind speed counteracts the energetic benefits of a rising ambient temperature, we were able to demonstrate that a climatic variable other than temperature may also affect wild populations and need to be taken into account when predicting the effects of climate change.

Static and Fatigue Analysis of Wind Turbine Blades Subject to Cold Weather Conditions Using Finite Element Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lillo Gallardo, Patricio Andres

Canada has aggressive targets for introducing wind energy across the country, but also faces challenges in achieving these goals due to the harsh Canadian climate. One issue which has received little attention in other countries not experiencing these extremes is the behaviour of composite blades in winter conditions. The scope of the work presented is to analyze the static stresses and fatigue response in cold climates using finite element models of the blade. The work opens with a quantification of the extremes of cold experienced in candidate Canadian wind turbine deployment locations. The thesis then narrows its focus to a consideration of the stresses in the root of the composite blades, specifically two common blade-hub connection methods: embedded root carrots and T-bolts. Finite element models of the root are proposed to properly simulate boundary conditions, applied loading and thermal stresses for a 1.5 MW wind turbine. It is shown that the blade root is strongly affected by the thermal stresses caused by the mismatch and orthotrophy of the coefficients of thermal expansion of the blade root constituents. Fatigue analysis of a blade is then presented using temperature dependent material properties including estimated fatigue coefficients.It was found that the natural frequencies of a 1.5 MW wind turbine blade are not significantly altered at cold temperatures. Additionally, cold temperatures slightly increase stresses in the composite blade skin when the blade is loaded, due to an increase in stiffness. Cold temperatures also lead to higher cyclic flapwise bending moments acting on the blade. However, this increase was found not to affect the lifetime fatigue damage. Finally, it was found that the cold climate as seen in Canada improves the fatigue strength of the saturated composite materials used in the blade. The predicted fatigue damage of the triaxial fabric and the spar cap layers in cold climates was therefore predicted to be half that of the fatigue damage at room temperature. This is caused solely by the temperature dependence of the fatigue coefficient b which requires further experimental verification to validate the numerical results of the current study.

Multi-Index Attribution of Beijing's 2013 "Airpocalypse"

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Callahan, C.; Diffenbaugh, N. S.; Horton, D. E.

2017-12-01

Poor air quality causes 2 to 4 million premature deaths per year globally. Individual high-impact events, like Beijing's January 2013 "airpocalypse," have drawn significant attention, as they have demonstrated that short-lived air quality events can have outsized effects on public health and economic vitality. Poor air quality events are the result of emission of pollutants and the meteorological conditions favorable to their accumulation in the near-surface environment. Accumulation occurs when pollutants are not dispersed or scavenged from the atmosphere. The most important meteorological precursors of these conditions include lack of precipitation, low wind speeds, and vertical temperature inversions. Recent reports of extreme air quality, in conjunction with projected future changes in some meteorological air quality indices, raise the question: have the meteorological conditions that shape air quality changed in frequency, intensity, or duration over the observational era? Here we assess whether anthropogenic climate change has altered meteorological conditions conducive to poor air quality. To gain a more complete picture of the effect of anthropogenic change on air quality, we use three indices that quantify poor air quality: the Pollution Potential Index (Zou et al, 2017), which measures temperature inversions and surface wind speeds, the Haze Weather Index (Cai et al, 2017), which measures temperature inversions and mid-level wind speeds, and the Air Stagnation Index (Horton et al, 2014), which measures precipitation, surface wind speeds, and mid-level wind speeds. Drawing on the attribution methods of Diffenbaugh et al (2017), we assess the contribution of observed meteorological trends to the magnitude of air quality events, the return interval of events in the observational record, historical simulated climate, and pre-industrial simulated climate, and the probability of the observed trend in historical and pre-industrial simulated climates. Particular attention is paid to Beijing's January 2013 event, but we also analyze air quality meteorology on a global scale. This work provides a framework for both further understanding the role of climate change in particular air quality events and for expanding the scope of extreme event attribution beyond its current applications.

Increased Surface Wind Speeds Follow Diminishing Arctic Sea Ice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mioduszewski, J.; Vavrus, S. J.; Wang, M.; Holland, M. M.; Landrum, L.

2017-12-01

Projections of Arctic sea ice through the end of the 21st century indicate the likelihood of a strong reduction in ice area and thickness in all seasons, leading to a substantial thermodynamic influence on the overlying atmosphere. This is likely to have an effect on winds over the Arctic Basin, due to changes in atmospheric stability and/or baroclinicity. Prior research on future Arctic wind changes is limited and has focused mainly on the practical impacts on wave heights in certain seasons. Here we attempt to identify patterns and likely mechanisms responsible for surface wind changes in all seasons across the Arctic, particularly those associated with sea ice loss in the marginal ice zone. Sea level pressure, near-surface (10 m) and upper-air (850 hPa) wind speeds, and lower-level dynamic and thermodynamic variables from the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble Project (CESM-LE) were analyzed for the periods 1971-2000 and 2071-2100 to facilitate comparison between a present-day and future climate. Mean near-surface wind speeds over the Arctic Ocean are projected to increase by late century in all seasons but especially during autumn and winter, when they strengthen by up to 50% locally. The most extreme wind speeds in the 90th percentile change even more, increasing in frequency by over 100%. The strengthened winds are closely linked to decreasing lower-tropospheric stability resulting from the loss of sea ice cover and consequent surface warming (locally over 20 ºC warmer in autumn and winter). A muted pattern of these future changes is simulated in CESM-LE historical runs from 1920-2005. The enhanced winds near the surface are mostly collocated with weaker winds above the boundary layer during autumn and winter, implying more vigorous vertical mixing and a drawdown of high-momentum air.The implications of stronger future winds include increased coastal hazards and the potential for a positive feedback with sea ice by generating higher winds and greater wave activity. Our findings suggest that increasing winds, along with retreating sea ice and thawing permafrost, represent another important contributor to the growing problem of Arctic coastal erosion.

Changes to extreme wave climates of islands within the Western Tropical Pacific throughout the 21st century under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, with implications for island vulnerability and sustainability

USGS Publications Warehouse

Shope, James B.; Storlazzi, Curt; Erikson, Li; Hegermiller, Christie

2016-01-01

Waves are the dominant influence on coastal morphology and ecosystem structure of tropical Pacific islands. Wave heights, periods, and directions for the 21st century were projected using near-surface wind fields from four atmosphere-ocean coupled global climate models (GCM) under representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5. GCM-derived wind fields forced the global WAVEWATCH-III wave model to generate hourly time-series of bulk wave parameters around 25 islands in the mid to western tropical Pacific Ocean for historical (1976–2005), mid-, and end-of-century time periods. Extreme significant wave heights decreased (~10.0%) throughout the 21st century under both climate scenarios compared to historical wave conditions and the higher radiative forcing 8.5 scenario displayed a greater and more widespread decrease in extreme significant wave heights compared to the lower forcing 4.5 scenario. An exception was for the end-of-century June–August season. Offshore of islands in the central equatorial Pacific, extreme significant wave heights displayed the largest changes from historical values. The frequency of extreme events during December–February decreased under RCP 8.5, whereas the frequency increased under RCP 4.5. Mean wave directions often rotated more than 30° clockwise at several locations during June–August, which could indicate a weakening of the trade winds’ influence on extreme wave directions and increasing dominance of Southern Ocean swell or eastern shift of storm tracks. The projected changes in extreme wave heights, directions of extreme events, and frequencies at which extreme events occur will likely result in changes to the morphology and sustainability of island nations.

Atmospheric Blocking and Atlantic Multi-Decadal Ocean Variability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Haekkinen, Sirpa; Rhines, Peter B.; Worthlen, Denise L.

2011-01-01

Based on the 20th century atmospheric reanalysis, winters with more frequent blocking, in a band of blocked latitudes from Greenland to Western Europe, are found to persist over several decades and correspond to a warm North Atlantic Ocean, in-phase with Atlantic multi-decadal ocean variability. Atmospheric blocking over the northern North Atlantic, which involves isolation of large regions of air from the westerly circulation for 5 days or more, influences fundamentally the ocean circulation and upper ocean properties by impacting wind patterns. Winters with clusters of more frequent blocking between Greenland and western Europe correspond to a warmer, more saline subpolar ocean. The correspondence between blocked westerly winds and warm ocean holds in recent decadal episodes (especially, 1996-2010). It also describes much longer-timescale Atlantic multidecadal ocean variability (AMV), including the extreme, pre-greenhouse-gas, northern warming of the 1930s-1960s. The space-time structure of the wind forcing associated with a blocked regime leads to weaker ocean gyres and weaker heat-exchange, both of which contribute to the warm phase of AMV.

A coupled aero-structural model of a HAWT blade for dynamic load and response prediction in time-domain for health monitoring applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sauder, Heather Scot

To reach the high standards set for renewable energy production in the US and around the globe, wind turbines with taller towers and longer blades are being designed for onshore and offshore wind developments to capture more energy from higher winds aloft and a larger rotor diameter. However, amongst all the wind turbine components wind turbine blades are still the most prone to damage. Given that wind turbine blades experience dynamic loads from multiple sources, there is a need to be able to predict the real-time load, stress distribution and response of the blade in a given wind environment for damage, flutter and fatigue life predictions. Current methods of wind-induced response analysis for wind turbine blades use approximations that are not suitable for wind turbine blade airfoils which are thick, and therefore lead to inaccurate life predictions. Additionally, a time-domain formulation can prove to be especially advantageous for predicting aerodynamic loads on wind turbine blades since they operate in a turbulent atmospheric boundary layer. This will help to analyze the blades on wind turbines that operate individually or in a farm setting where they experience high turbulence in the wake of another wind turbine. A time-domain formulation is also useful for examining the effects of gusty winds that are transient in nature like in gust fronts, thunderstorms or extreme events such as hurricanes, microbursts, and tornadoes. Time-domain methods present the opportunity for real-time health monitoring strategies that can easily be used with finite element methods for prediction of fatigue life or onset of flutter instability. The purpose of the proposed work is to develop a robust computational model to predict the loads, stresses and response of a wind turbine blade in operating and extreme wind conditions. The model can be used to inform health monitoring strategies for preventative maintenance and provide a realistic number of stress cycles that the blade will experience for fatigue life prediction procedures. To fill in the gaps in the existing knowledge and meet the overall goal of the proposed research, the following objectives were accomplished: (a) improve the existing aeroelastic (motion- and turbulence-induced) load models to predict the response of wind turbine blade airfoils to understand its behavior in turbulent wind, (b) understand, model and predict the response of wind turbine blades in transient or gusty wind, boundary-layer wind and incoherent wind over the span of the blade, (c) understand the effects of aero-structural coupling between the along-wind, cross-wind and torsional vibrations, and finally (d) develop a computational tool using the improved time-domain load model to predict the real-time load, stress distribution and response of a given wind turbine blade during operating and parked conditions subject to a specific wind environment both in a short and long term for damage, flutter and fatigue life predictions.

For wind turbines in complex terrain, the devil is in the detail

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lange, Julia; Mann, Jakob; Berg, Jacob; Parvu, Dan; Kilpatrick, Ryan; Costache, Adrian; Chowdhury, Jubayer; Siddiqui, Kamran; Hangan, Horia

2017-09-01

The cost of energy produced by onshore wind turbines is among the lowest available; however, onshore wind turbines are often positioned in a complex terrain, where the wind resources and wind conditions are quite uncertain due to the surrounding topography and/or vegetation. In this study, we use a scale model in a three-dimensional wind-testing chamber to show how minor changes in the terrain can result in significant differences in the flow at turbine height. These differences affect not only the power performance but also the life-time and maintenance costs of wind turbines, and hence, the economy and feasibility of wind turbine projects. We find that the mean wind, wind shear and turbulence level are extremely sensitive to the exact details of the terrain: a small modification of the edge of our scale model, results in a reduction of the estimated annual energy production by at least 50% and an increase in the turbulence level by a factor of five in the worst-case scenario with the most unfavorable wind direction. Wind farm developers should be aware that near escarpments destructive flows can occur and their extent is uncertain thus warranting on-site field measurements.

GISOT: a giant solar telescope

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hammerschlag, Robert H.; von der Lühe, Oskar F.; Bettonvil, Felix C.; Jägers, Aswin P.; Snik, Frans

2004-10-01

A concept is presented for an extremely large high-resolution solar telescope with an aperture of 11 m and diffraction limited for visual wavelengths. The structure of GISOT will be transparent to wind and placed on a transparent stiff tower. For efficient wind flushing, all optics, including the primary mirror, will be located above the elevation axis. The aperture will be of the order of 11 m, not rotatively symmetrical, but of an elongated shape with dimensions 11 x 4 m. It consists of a central on-axis 4 m mirror with on both sides 3 pieces of 2 m mirrors. The optical layout will be kept simple to guarantee quality and minimize stray light. A Coudé room for instruments is planned below the telescope. The telescope will not be housed in a dome-like construction, which interferes with the open principle. Instead the telescope will be protected by a foldable tent construction with a diameter of the order of 30 m, which doesn"t form any obstruction during observations, but can withstand the severe weather circumstances on mountain sites. Because of the nature of the solar scene, extremely high resolution in only one dimension is sufficient to solve many exciting problems in solar physics and in this respect the concept of GISOT is very promising.

Revisiting the synoptic-scale predictability of severe European winter storms using ECMWF ensemble reforecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pantillon, Florian; Knippertz, Peter; Corsmeier, Ulrich

2017-10-01

New insights into the synoptic-scale predictability of 25 severe European winter storms of the 1995-2015 period are obtained using the homogeneous ensemble reforecast dataset from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. The predictability of the storms is assessed with different metrics including (a) the track and intensity to investigate the storms' dynamics and (b) the Storm Severity Index to estimate the impact of the associated wind gusts. The storms are well predicted by the whole ensemble up to 2-4 days ahead. At longer lead times, the number of members predicting the observed storms decreases and the ensemble average is not clearly defined for the track and intensity. The Extreme Forecast Index and Shift of Tails are therefore computed from the deviation of the ensemble from the model climate. Based on these indices, the model has some skill in forecasting the area covered by extreme wind gusts up to 10 days, which indicates a clear potential for early warnings. However, large variability is found between the individual storms. The poor predictability of outliers appears related to their physical characteristics such as explosive intensification or small size. Longer datasets with more cases would be needed to further substantiate these points.

Optical technique to study the impact of heavy rain on aircraft performance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hess, C. F.; Li, F.

1985-01-01

A laser based technique was investigated and shown to have the potential to obtain measurements of the size and velocity of water droplets used in a wind tunnel to simulate rain. A theoretical model was developed which included some simple effects due to droplet nonsphericity. Parametric studies included the variation of collection distance (up to 4 m), angle of collection, effect of beam interference by the spray, and droplet shape. Accurate measurements were obtained under extremely high liquid water content and spray interference. The technique finds applications in the characterization of two phase flows where the size and velocity of particles are needed.

Global Ultraviolet Imager (GUVI) investigation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Christensen, Andrew B.

1995-01-01

This report covers the activities performed under NAS5-32572. The results of those activities are included in this Final Report. TIMED Science Objectives: (1) To determine the temperature, density, and wind structure of the MLTI (mixed layer thermal inertia), including the seasonal and latitudinal variations; and (2) To determine the relative importance of the various radiative, chemical, electrodynamical, and dynamical sources and sinks of energy for the thermal structure of the MLTI. GUVI Science Goals: (1) Determine the spatial and temporal variations of temperature and constituent densities in the lower thermosphere; and (2) Determine the importance of auroral energy sources and solar EUV (extreme ultraviolet) to the energy balance of the region.

Extreme Wind, Rain, Storm Surge, and Flooding: Why Hurricane Impacts are Difficult to Forecast?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, S. S.

2017-12-01

The 2017 hurricane season is estimated as one of the costliest in the U.S. history. The damage and devastation caused by Hurricane Harvey in Houston, Irma in Florida, and Maria in Puerto Rico are distinctly different in nature. The complexity of hurricane impacts from extreme wind, rain, storm surge, and flooding presents a major challenge in hurricane forecasting. A detailed comparison of the storm impacts from Harvey, Irma, and Maria will be presented using observations and state-of-the-art new generation coupled atmosphere-wave-ocean hurricane forecast model. The author will also provide an overview on what we can expect in terms of advancement in science and technology that can help improve hurricane impact forecast in the near future.

A geostatistical extreme-value framework for fast simulation of natural hazard events

PubMed Central

Stephenson, David B.

2016-01-01

We develop a statistical framework for simulating natural hazard events that combines extreme value theory and geostatistics. Robust generalized additive model forms represent generalized Pareto marginal distribution parameters while a Student’s t-process captures spatial dependence and gives a continuous-space framework for natural hazard event simulations. Efficiency of the simulation method allows many years of data (typically over 10 000) to be obtained at relatively little computational cost. This makes the model viable for forming the hazard module of a catastrophe model. We illustrate the framework by simulating maximum wind gusts for European windstorms, which are found to have realistic marginal and spatial properties, and validate well against wind gust measurements. PMID:27279768

Occurrence of Magellanic penguins along the Northeast Brazilian coast during 2008 Austral winter.

PubMed

da Silva, Renato Ramos; Pereira, Janini; Tanajura, Clemente A S; Lentini, Carlos A D; Cirano, Mauro; Boersma, P Dee; Rodrigues, Regina R

2012-01-01

During the austral winter of 2008, thousands of penguins traveled to low latitudes along the South Atlantic coast of South America. The atmospheric and oceanic conditions from April to July 2008 may account for the penguins' unusual geographic distribution. During that period, South Atlantic coastal waters were cooler; the wind anomalies had northward and onshore components; the ocean's coastal region presented northward currents that favored the penguins to travel toward lower latitudes. This anomalous climate regime resulted from extreme meteorological frontal systems that occurred mainly during June 2008. Three consecutive extreme midlatitude cyclones produced strong wind shear that resulted in the northward oceanic flow along the South American eastern shoreline favoring the penguins to be spotted in northern tropical waters.

USACE Extreme Sea Levels Advice on Guidance on Procedures to Evaluate and Adapt to Changes in Mean and Extreme Sea Levels.

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-09-09

influences of changes in extreme sea levels as they affect the four mission areas of USACE: storm damage reduction, flood risk mitigation, ecosystems...winds and surface pressure can occur on the scale of the inundation area under investigation, cyclonic climatologies and more sophisticated inundation...Federal and State agencies (particularly the Bureau of Meteorology) providing forecast data (e.g. DIPNR, 2005, Appendix N). In more developed areas of

Characteristics of offshore extreme wind-waves detected by surface drifters with a low-cost GPS wave sensor

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Komatsu, Kosei

Wind-generated waves have been recognized as one of the most important factors of the sea surface roughness which plays crucial roles in various air-sea interactions such as energy, mo-mentum, heat and gas exchanges. At the same time, wind waves with extreme wave heights representatively called as freak or rogue waves have been a matter of great concern for many people involved in shipping, fishing, constracting, surfing and other marine activities, because such extreme waves frequently affect on the marine activities and sometimes cause serious dis-asters. Nevertheless, investigations of actual conditions for the evolution of wind waves in the offshore region are less and sparse in contrast to dense monitoring networks in the coastal re-gions because of difficulty of offshore observation with high accuracy. Recently accurate in situ observation of offshore wind waves is getting possible at low cost owing to a wave height and di-rection sensor developed by Harigae et al. (2004) by installing a point-positioning GPS receiver on a surface drifting buoy. The point-positioning GPS sensor can extract three dimensional movements of the buoy excited by ocean waves with minimizing effects of GPS point-positioning errors through the use of a high-pass filter. Two drifting buoys equipped with the GPS-based wave sensor charged by solar cells were drifted in the western North Pacific and one of them continued to observe wind waves during 16 months from Sep. 2007. The RMSE of the GPS-based wave sensor was less than 10cm in significant wave height and about 1s in significant wave period in comparison with other sensors, i.e. accelerometers installed on drifting buoys of Japan Meteorological Agency, ultrasonic sensors placed at the Hiratsuka observation station of the University of Tokyo and altimeter of the JASON-1. The GPS-based wave buoys enabled us to detect freak waves defined as waves whose height is more than twice the significant wave height. The observation conducted by the wave buoys in 2007-2008 indicated a little more frequent occurrence of freak waves comparing with Forristall's (1978) empirical formula and Naess's (1985) distribution for a narrow-band Gaussian sea.

Dispersion of conservative properties for SGD effects by numerical modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gallegos, G.; Marino-Tapia, I.; Enriquez, C.

2013-05-01

The submarine groundwater discharges around de coasts of theYucatán Peninsula are very common because of its karstic nature. These discharges of fresh water into the sea can change the thermohaline conditions of the region. There are several studies that demonstrate that point submarine groundwater discharges can change the superficial temperature and haline conditions near the point-SGD. Furthermore, there is evidence that considerable concentrations of nutrients are transported to the sea via SGDs. In order to quantify the area of influence of a point-SGD and the ability of the coastal system to dissipate the ground water, this study presents a numerical simulation of a point-SGD on the north coast of Yucatán, Dzilam Bravo. Teh flow recorded for this SGD is ~1m^3/s and it is located 200m offshore in waters of less than 2m detph.. The numerical simulation was carried out in the model DELFT-3D which has been calibrated with water level and hydrodynamics data for the region with a grid of 486 x 243 nodes that cover an area of 6 km alongshore by 2 km crosshore with a resolution of 14 m. Three ideal numerical scenarios were simulated: only wind forcing, only tidal forcing and wind-tide forcing. The real cases are for two different wind conditions, the first is a southeast wind, and the second is a breeze with an easterly component; the dominant winds in the region are easterly. Seasonal variation was also simulated; the two conditions that exist in the region are the rainy and dry seasons. The extreme events of ENSO and northerly storms locally known as "nortes" were also simulated. The results of the ideal set of scenarios shows wind as the principal forcing for dispersion and it governs the direction of the salinity gradient. The seasonal variations show that the area of influence in terms of salinity is also a function of the contrast between fresh and sea water, and finally the set of extreme condition simulations shows, in case of the northerly storms, that the wind pushes the flow of low salinity towards the coast and can even reverse the normal eastwards water circulation of the region. The lack of contrast in salinity between the two water masses during the ENSO event shows the importance of including other variables to trace these discharges. One of the questions behind this work is to explain the red tide when the coastal system is not able to dissipate the input of nutrients by groundwater discharge in the coastal system.

Mesoscale atmospheric modelling technology as a tool for the long-term meteorological dataset development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Platonov, Vladimir; Kislov, Alexander; Rivin, Gdaly; Varentsov, Mikhail; Rozinkina, Inna; Nikitin, Mikhail; Chumakov, Mikhail

2017-04-01

The detailed hydrodynamic modelling of meteorological parameters during the last 30 years (1985 - 2014) was performed for the Okhotsk Sea and the Sakhalin island regions. The regional non-hydrostatic atmospheric model COSMO-CLM used for this long-term simulation with 13.2, 6.6 and 2.2 km horizontal resolutions. The main objective of creation this dataset was the outlook of the investigation of statistical characteristics and the physical mechanisms of extreme weather events (primarily, wind speed extremes) on the small spatio-temporal scales. COSMO-CLM is the climate version of the well-known mesoscale COSMO model, including some modifications and extensions adapting to the long-term numerical experiments. The downscaling technique was realized and developed for the long-term simulations with three consequent nesting domains. ERA-Interim reanalysis ( 0.75 degrees resolution) used as global forcing data for the starting domain ( 13.2 km horizontal resolution), then these simulation data used as initial and boundary conditions for the next model runs over the domain with 6.6 km resolution, and similarly, for the next step to 2.2 km domain. Besides, the COSMO-CLM model configuration for 13.2 km run included the spectral nudging technique, i.e. an additional assimilation of reanalysis data not only at boundaries, but also inside the whole domain. Practically, this computational scheme realized on the SGI Altix 4700 supercomputer system in the Main Computer Center of Roshydromet and used 2,400 hours of CPU time total. According to modelling results, the verification of the obtained dataset was performed on the observation data. Estimations showed the mean error -0.5 0C, up to 2 - 3 0C RMSE in temperature, and overestimation in wind speed (RMSE is up to 2 m/s). Overall, analysis showed that the used downscaling technique with applying the COSMO-CLM model reproduced the meteorological conditions, spatial distribution, seasonal and synoptic variability of temperature and wind speed for the study area adequately. The dependences between reproduction quality of mesoscale atmospheric circulation features and the horizontal resolution of the model were revealed. In particular, it is shown that the use of 6 km resolution does not give any significant improvement comparing to 13 km resolution, whereas 2.2 km resolution provides an appreciable quality enhancement. Detailed synoptic analysis of extreme wind speed situations identified the main types of favorable to their genesis, associated with developing of cyclones over the Japan Islands or the Primorsky Kray of Russia, and penetration of intensified cyclones from Pacific Ocean through the Kamchatka peninsula, Kuril or Japan Islands. The obtained dataset will continue to be used for a full and comprehensive analysis of the reproduction quality of hydrometeorological fields, their statistical estimates, climatological trends and many other objectives.

Climate Extreme Events over Northern Eurasia in Changing Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bulygina, O.; Korshunova, N. N.; Razuvaev, V. N.; Groisman, P. Y.

2014-12-01

During the period of widespread instrumental observations in Northern Eurasia, the annual surface air temperature has increased by 1.5°C. Close to the north in the Arctic Ocean, the late summer sea ice extent has decreased by 40% providing a near-infinite source of water vapor for the dry Arctic atmosphere in the early cold season months. The contemporary sea ice changes are especially visible in the Eastern Hemisphere All these factors affect the change extreme events. Daily and sub-daily data of 940 stations to analyze variations in the space time distribution of extreme temperatures, precipitation, and wind over Russia were used. Changing in number of days with thaw over Russia was described. The total seasonal numbers of days, when daily surface air temperatures (wind, precipitation) were found to be above (below) selected thresholds, were used as indices of climate extremes. Changing in difference between maximum and minimum temperature (DTR) may produce a variety of effects on biological systems. All values falling within the intervals ranged from the lowest percentile to the 5th percentile and from the 95th percentile to the highest percentile for the time period of interest were considered as daily extremes. The number of days, N, when daily temperatures (wind, precipitation, DTR) were within the above mentioned intervals, was determined for the seasons of each year. Linear trends in the number of days were calculated for each station and for quasi-homogeneous climatic regions. Regional analysis of extreme events was carried out using quasi-homogeneous climatic regions. Maps (climatology, trends) are presented mostly for visualization purposes. Differences in regional characteristics of extreme events are accounted for over a large extent of the Russian territory and variety of its physical and geographical conditions. The number of days with maximum temperatures higher than the 95% percentile has increased in most of Russia and decreased in Siberia in spring and autumn. Reducing the number of days with extremely low air temperatures dominated in all seasons. At the same time, the number of days with abnormally low air temperatures has increased in Middle Volga region and south of Western Siberia. In most parts of European Russia observed increase in the number of days with heavy snowfalls.

Magnetopause Standoff Position Changes and Geosynchronous Orbit Crossings: Models and Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Collado-Vega, Y. M.; Rastaetter, L.; Sibeck, D. G.

2017-12-01

The Earth's magnetopause is the boundary that mostly separates the solar wind with the Earth's magnetosphere. Its location has been studied and estimated via simulation models, observational data and empirical models. This research aims to study the changes of the magnetopause standoff location due to different solar wind conditions using a combination of all the different methods. We will use the Run-On-Request capabilities within the MHD models available from the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, specifically BATS-R-US (SWMF), OpenGGCM, LFM and GUMICS models. The magnetopause standoff position prediction and response time to the solar wind changes will then be compared to results from available empirical models (e.g. Shue et al. 1998), and to THEMIS, Cluster, Geotail and MMS missions magnetopause crossing observations. We will also use times of extreme solar wind conditions where magnetopause crossings have been observed by the GOES satellites. Rigorous analysis/comparison of observations and empirical models is critical in determining magnetosphere dynamics for model validation. This research goes also hand in hand with the efforts of the working group at the CCMC/LWS International Forum for Space Weather Capabilities Assessment workshop that aims to analyze different events to define metrics for model-data comparison. Preliminary results of this particular research show that there are some discrepancies between the MHD models standoff positions of the dayside magnetopause for the same solar wind conditions that include an increase in solar wind dynamic pressure and a step function in the IMF Bz component. In cases of nominal solar wind conditions, it has been observed that the models do mostly agree with the observational data from the different satellite missions.

Hurricane Harvey's Rapid Wind Intensification seen by NASA's SMAP

NASA Image and Video Library

2017-08-28

The rapid intensification of Hurricane Harvey is seen in this pair of images of ocean surface wind speeds as observed by the radiometer instrument aboard NASA's Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) satellite at 7:29 a.m. CDT Aug. 24th, 2017 (left) and at 7 p.m. CDT Aug. 26th (right). Color indicates wind speed, with red being highest and blue lowest. The images show Harvey's maximum wind speeds increased from approximately 56 miles per hour (25 meters per second) to about 107 miles per hour (47.8 meters per second) in the 36 hours just before landfall. The higher wind speeds estimated near the mouth of the Mississippi River are erroneous and are due to errors in the ancillary sea-surface-salinity data product used by SMAP to estimate extreme wind speeds. https://photojournal.jpl.nasa.gov/catalog/PIA21884

Structural optimization procedure of a composite wind turbine blade for reducing both material cost and blade weight

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, Weifei; Park, Dohyun; Choi, DongHoon

2013-12-01

A composite blade structure for a 2 MW horizontal axis wind turbine is optimally designed. Design requirements are simultaneously minimizing material cost and blade weight while satisfying the constraints on stress ratio, tip deflection, fatigue life and laminate layup requirements. The stress ratio and tip deflection under extreme gust loads and the fatigue life under a stochastic normal wind load are evaluated. A blade element wind load model is proposed to explain the wind pressure difference due to blade height change during rotor rotation. For fatigue life evaluation, the stress result of an implicit nonlinear dynamic analysis under a time-varying fluctuating wind is converted to the histograms of mean and amplitude of maximum stress ratio using the rainflow counting algorithm Miner's rule is employed to predict the fatigue life. After integrating and automating the whole analysis procedure an evolutionary algorithm is used to solve the discrete optimization problem.

Human cold stress of strong local-wind "Hijikawa-arashi" in Japan, based on the UTCI index and thermo-physiological responses.

PubMed

Ohashi, Yukitaka; Katsuta, Takumi; Tani, Haruka; Okabayashi, Taiki; Miyahara, Satoshi; Miyashita, Ryoji

2018-03-30

We investigated the cold stress caused by a strong local wind called "Hijikawa-arashi," through in situ vital measurements and the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI). This wind is a very interesting winter phenomenon, localized in an area within 1 km of the seashore in Ozu City, Ehime Prefecture in Japan. When a strong Hijikawa-arashi (HA) occurred at 14-15 m s -1 , the UTCI decreased to - 30 °C along the bridge where commuting residents are the most exposed to strong and cold winds. On the bridge, most participants in our experiment felt "very cold" or "extremely cold." The UTCI of HA can be predicted from a multiple regression equation using wind speed and air temperature. The cold HA wind is also harmful to human thermo-physiological responses. It leads to higher blood pressure and increased heart rate, both of which act as cardiovascular stress triggers. Increases of 6-10 mmHg and 3-6 bpm for every 10 °C reduction in UTCI were seen on all observational days, including HA and non-HA days. In fact, the participants' body skin temperatures decreased by approximately 1.2 to 1.7 °C for every 10 °C reduction in UTCI. Thus, the UTCI variation due to the HA outbreak corresponded well with the cold sensation and thermo-physiological responses in humans. This result suggests that daily UTCI monitoring enables the prediction of thermo-physiological responses to the HA cold stress.

Research at a European Planetary Simulation Facility

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Merrison, J.; Iversen, J. J.; Alois, S.; Rasmussen, K. R.

2015-10-01

This unique environmental simulation facility is capable of re-creating extreme terrestrial, Martian and other planetary environments. It is supported by EU activities including Europlanet RI and a volcanology network VERTIGO. It is also used as a test facility by ESA for the forthcoming ExoMars 2018 mission. Specifically it is capable of recreating the key physical parameters such as temperature, pressure (gas composition), wind flow and importantly the suspension/transport of dust or sand particulates. This facility is available both to the scientific and Industrial community. The latest research and networking activities will be presented.

Extreme Events in China under Climate Change: Uncertainty and related impacts (CSSP-FOREX)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leckebusch, Gregor C.; Befort, Daniel J.; Hodges, Kevin I.

2016-04-01

Suitable adaptation strategies or the timely initiation of related mitigation efforts in East Asia will strongly depend on robust and comprehensive information about future near-term as well as long-term potential changes in the climate system. Therefore, understanding the driving mechanisms associated with the East Asian climate is of major importance. The FOREX project (Fostering Regional Decision Making by the Assessment of Uncertainties of Future Regional Extremes and their Linkage to Global Climate System Variability for China and East Asia) focuses on the investigation of extreme wind and rainfall related events over Eastern Asia and their possible future changes. Here, analyses focus on the link between local extreme events and their driving weather systems. This includes the coupling between local rainfall extremes and tropical cyclones, the Meiyu frontal system, extra-tropical teleconnections and monsoonal activity. Furthermore, the relation between these driving weather systems and large-scale variability modes, e.g. NAO, PDO, ENSO is analysed. Thus, beside analysing future changes of local extreme events, the temporal variability of their driving weather systems and related large-scale variability modes will be assessed in current CMIP5 global model simulations to obtain more robust results. Beyond an overview of FOREX itself, first results regarding the link between local extremes and their steering weather systems based on observational and reanalysis data are shown. Special focus is laid on the contribution of monsoonal activity, tropical cyclones and the Meiyu frontal system on the inter-annual variability of the East Asian summer rainfall.

Should future wind speed changes be taken into account in wind farm development?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Devis, Annemarie; Van Lipzig, Nicole P. M.; Demuzere, Matthias

2018-06-01

Accurate wind resource assessments are crucial in the development of wind farm projects. However, it is common practice to estimate the wind yield over the next 20 years from short-term measurements and reanalysis data of the past 20 years, even though wind climatology is expected to change under the future climate. The present work examines future changes in wind power output over Europe using an ensemble of ESMs. The power output is calculated using the entire wind speed PDF and a non-constant power conversion coefficient. Based on this method, the ESM ensemble projects changes in near-future power outputs with a spatially varying magnitude between ‑12% and 8%. The most extreme changes occur over the Mediterranean region. For the first time, the sensitivity of these future change in power output to the type of wind turbine is also investigated. The analysis reveals that the projected wind power changes may vary in up to half of their magnitude, depending on the type of turbine and region of interest. As such, we recommend that wind industries fully account for projected near-future changes in wind power output by taking them into account as a well-defined loss/gain and uncertainty when estimating the yield of a future wind farm.

Effects of extreme climatic events on small-scale spatial patterns: a 20-year study of the distribution of a desert spider.

PubMed

Birkhofer, Klaus; Henschel, Joh; Lubin, Yael

2012-11-01

Individuals of most animal species are non-randomly distributed in space. Extreme climatic events are often ignored as potential drivers of distribution patterns, and the role of such events is difficult to assess. Seothyra henscheli (Araneae, Eresidae) is a sedentary spider found in the Namib dunes in Namibia. The spider constructs a sticky-edged silk web on the sand surface, connected to a vertical, silk-lined burrow. Above-ground web structures can be damaged by strong winds or heavy rainfall, and during dispersal spiders are susceptible to environmental extremes. Locations of burrows were mapped in three field sites in 16 out of 20 years from 1987 to 2007, and these grid-based data were used to identify the relationship between spatial patterns, climatic extremes and sampling year. According to Morisita's index, individuals had an aggregated distribution in most years and field sites, and Geary's C suggests clustering up to scales of 2 m. Individuals were more aggregated in years with high maximum wind speed and low annual precipitation. Our results suggest that clustering is a temporally stable property of populations that holds even under fluctuating burrow densities. Climatic extremes, however, affect the intensity of clustering behaviour: individuals seem to be better protected in field sites with many conspecific neighbours. We suggest that burrow-site selection is driven at least partly by conspecific cuing, and this behaviour may protect populations from collapse during extreme climatic events.

Spatial extreme value analysis to project extremes of large-scale indicators for severe weather

PubMed Central

Gilleland, Eric; Brown, Barbara G; Ammann, Caspar M

2013-01-01

Concurrently high values of the maximum potential wind speed of updrafts (Wmax) and 0–6 km wind shear (Shear) have been found to represent conducive environments for severe weather, which subsequently provides a way to study severe weather in future climates. Here, we employ a model for the product of these variables (WmSh) from the National Center for Atmospheric Research/United States National Center for Environmental Prediction reanalysis over North America conditioned on their having extreme energy in the spatial field in order to project the predominant spatial patterns of WmSh. The approach is based on the Heffernan and Tawn conditional extreme value model. Results suggest that this technique estimates the spatial behavior of WmSh well, which allows for exploring possible changes in the patterns over time. While the model enables a method for inferring the uncertainty in the patterns, such analysis is difficult with the currently available inference approach. A variation of the method is also explored to investigate how this type of model might be used to qualitatively understand how the spatial patterns of WmSh correspond to extreme river flow events. A case study for river flows from three rivers in northwestern Tennessee is studied, and it is found that advection of WmSh from the Gulf of Mexico prevails while elsewhere, WmSh is generally very low during such extreme events. © 2013 The Authors. Environmetrics published by JohnWiley & Sons, Ltd. PMID:24223482

Wind study for high altitude platform design

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Strganac, T. W.

1979-01-01

An analysis of upper air winds was performed to define the wind environment at potential operating altitudes for high-altitude powered platform concepts. Expected wind conditions of the contiguous United States, Pacific area (Alaska to Sea of Japan), and European area (Norwegian and Mediterranean Seas) were obtained using a representative network of sites selected based upon adequate high-altitude sampling, geographic dispersion, and observed upper wind patterns. A data base of twenty plus years of rawinsonde gathered wind information was used in the analysis. Annual variations from surface to 10 mb (approximately 31 km) pressure altitude were investigated to encompass the practical operating range for the platform concepts. Parametric analysis for the United States and foreign areas was performed to provide a basis for vehicle system design tradeoffs. This analysis of wind magnitudes indicates the feasibility of annual operation at a majority of sites and more selective seasonal operation for the extreme conditions between the pressure altitudes of 100 to 25 mb based upon the assumed design speeds.

Wind study for high altitude platform design

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Strganac, T. W.

1979-01-01

An analysis of upper air winds was performed to define the wind environment at potential operating altitudes for high altitude powered platform concepts. Wind conditions of the continental United States, Pacific area (Alaska to Sea of Japan), and European area (Norwegian and Mediterranean Sea) were obtained using a representative network of sites selected based upon adequate high altitude sampling, geographic dispersion, and observed upper wind patterns. A data base of twenty plus years of rawinsonde gathered wind information was used in the analysis. Annual variations from surface to 10 mb pressure altitude were investigated to encompass the practical operating range for the platform concepts. Parametric analysis for the United States and foreign areas was performed to provide a basis for vehicle system design tradeoffs. This analysis of wind magnitudes indicates the feasibility of annual operation at a majority of sites and more selective seasonal operation for the extreme conditions between the pressure altitudes of 100 to 25 mb based upon the assumed design speeds.

Evaluation and adjustment of altimeter measurement and numerical hindcast in wave height trend estimation in China's coastal seas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Shuiqing; Guan, Shoude; Hou, Yijun; Liu, Yahao; Bi, Fan

2018-05-01

A long-term trend of significant wave height (SWH) in China's coastal seas was examined based on three datasets derived from satellite measurements and numerical hindcasts. One set of altimeter data were obtained from the GlobWave, while the other two datasets of numerical hindcasts were obtained from the third-generation wind wave model, WAVEWATCH III, forced by wind fields from the Cross-Calibrated Multi-Platform (CCMP) and NCEP's Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR). The mean and extreme wave trends were estimated for the period 1992-2010 with respect to the annual mean and the 99th-percentile values of SWH, respectively. The altimeter wave trend estimates feature considerable uncertainties owing to the sparse sampling rate. Furthermore, the extreme wave trend tends to be overestimated because of the increasing sampling rate over time. Numerical wave trends strongly depend on the quality of the wind fields, as the CCMP waves significantly overestimate the wave trend, whereas the CFSR waves tend to underestimate the trend. Corresponding adjustments were applied which effectively improved the trend estimates from the altimeter and numerical data. The adjusted results show generally increasing mean wave trends, while the extreme wave trends are more spatially-varied, from decreasing trends prevailing in the South China Sea to significant increasing trends mainly in the East China Sea.

Hurricane Maria's Strengthening Winds Seen in NASA SMAP Image

NASA Image and Video Library

2017-09-19

The radiometer instrument on NASA's Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) spacecraft captured this image of Hurricane Maria at 6:27 a.m. EDT on Sept. 19, 2017 (10:27 UTC), showing an estimated maximum surface wind speed of 126.6 miles per hour (56.6 meters per second). While Maria was already a Category 5 hurricane at the time of this observation, it is an extremely tightly organized hurricane and SMAP cannot fully resolve its highest winds due to the 25-mile (40-kilometer) resolution of SMAP. https://photojournal.jpl.nasa.gov/catalog/PIA21960

Potential of Future Hurricane Imaging Radiometer (HIRAD) Ocean Surface Wind Observations for Determining Tropical Storm Vortex Intensity and Structure

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Atlas, Robert; Bailey, M. C.; Black, Peter; James, Mark; Johnson, James; Jones, Linwood; Miller, Timothy; Ruf, Christopher; Uhlhorn, Eric

2008-01-01

The Hurricane Imaging Radiometer (HIRAD) is an innovative technology development, which offers the potential of new and unique remotely sensed observations of both extreme oceanic wind events and strong precipitation from either UAS or satellite platforms. It is based on the airborne Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer (SFMR), which is a proven aircraft remote sensing technique for observing tropical cyclone ocean surface wind speeds and rain rates, including those of major hurricane intensity. The proposed HIRAD instrument advances beyond the current nadir viewing SFMR to an equivalent wide-swath SFMR imager using passive microwave synthetic thinned aperture radiometer technology. This sensor will operate over 4-7 GHz (C-band frequencies) where the required tropical cyclone remote sensing physics has been validated by both SFMR and WindSat radiometers. HIRAD incorporates a unique, technologically advanced array antenna and several other technologies successfully demonstrated by the NASA's Instrument Incubator Program. A brassboard version of the instrument is complete and has been successfully tested in an anechoic chamber, and development of the aircraft instrument is well underway. HIRAD will be a compact, lightweight, low-power instrument with no moving parts that will produce wide-swath imagery of ocean vector winds and rain during hurricane conditions when existing microwave sensors (radiometers or scatterometers) are hindered. Preliminary studies show that HIRAD will have a significant positive impact on analyses as either a new aircraft or satellite sensor.

The Estimate of Atmospheric Boundary Layer Height Above a Coniferous Forest During BEARPEX 2007 and 2009

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choi, W.; McKay, M.; Weber, R.; Goldstein, A. H.; Baker, B. M.; Faloona, I. C.

2009-12-01

The atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) height (zi) is an extremely important parameter for interpreting field observations of reactive trace gases and understanding air quality at the local or regional scale. Despite its importance, zi is often crudely estimated for atmospheric chemistry or air pollution studies due to limited resources and the difficulty of measuring its altitude. In this study, zi over complex terrain (a coniferous forest in the California Sierra Nevada) is estimated based on the power spectra and the integral length scale of horizontal winds obtained from a three-axis sonic anemometer during the BEARPEX (Biosphere Effects on Aerosol and Photochemistry Experiment) 2007 and 2009. Estimated zi shows very good agreement with observations which were obtained from the balloon tether sonde (2007) and radio sonde (2009) measurements under unstable conditions (z/L<0). The behavior of zi under stable conditions (z/L>0), including the evolution and breakdown of the nocturnal boundary layer over the forest is also presented. Finally, significant directional wind shear was consistently observed during 2009 with winds backing from the prevailing surface west-southwesterlies (anabatic cross-valley circulation) to consistent southerlies just above the ABL. We show that this is the result of a thermal wind driven by the potential temperature gradient aligned upslope. The resultant wind flow pattern can modify the conventional model of transport along the Sacramento urban plume and has implications for California central valley basin flushing characteristics.

Stellar Magnetism, Winds and their Effects on Planetary Environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vidotto, A. A.

2016-08-01

Here, I review some recent works on magnetism of cool, main-sequence stars, their winds and potential impact on surrounding exoplanets. The winds of these stars are very tenuous and persist during their lifetime. Although carrying just a small fraction of the stellar mass, these magnetic winds carry away angular momentum, thus regulating the rotation of the star. Since cool stars are likely to be surrounded by planets, understanding the host star winds and magnetism is a key step towards characterisation of exoplanetary environments. As rotation and activity are intimately related, the spin down of stars leads to a decrease in stellar activity with age. As a consequence, as stars age, a decrease in high-energy (X-ray, extreme ultraviolet) irradiation is observed, which can a ect the evaporation of exoplanetary atmospheres and, thus, also altering exoplanetary evolution.

Supercharging of the Lunar Surface by Solar Wind Halo Electrons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stubbs, T. J.; Farrell, W. M.; Collier, M. R.; Halekas, J. S.; Delory, G. T.; Holland, M. P.; Vondrak, R. R.

2007-12-01

Lunar surface potentials can reach several kilovolts negative during Solar Energetic Particle (SEPs) events, as indicated by recent analysis of data from the Lunar Prospector Electron Reflectometer (LP/ER). The lunar surface- plasma interactions that result in such extreme surface potentials are poorly characterized and understood. Extreme lunar surface charging, and the associated electrostatic discharges and transport of charged dust, will likely present significant hazards to future human explorers. This is of particular concern near the terminator and polar regions, such as the South Pole/Aiken Basin site planned for NASA's manned outpost. It is the flux of electrons from the ambient plasma that charges the surface of the Moon to negative potentials. In the solar wind, the electron temperature is typically ~10 eV which tends to charge the lunar surface to ~100 V negative in shadow. However, during space weather events the solar wind electrons are often better described by the sum of two Maxwellian distributions, referred to as the "core" and "halo" components. The core electrons are relatively cool and dense (e.g., ~10 eV and ~10/cc), whereas the halo electrons are hot and tenuous (e.g., ~100 eV and ~0.1/cc). Despite, the tenuous nature of the halo electrons, our surface charging model - using core and halo electron data derived from the Solar Wind Experiment (SWE) aboard the Wind spacrcraft - predicts that they are capable of "supercharging" the lunar surface to kilovolt potentials during space weather events, which could explain the LP/ER observations.

Offshore Energy Mapping for Northeast Atlantic and Mediterranean: MARINA PLATFORM project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kallos, G.; Galanis, G.; Spyrou, C.; Kalogeri, C.; Adam, A.; Athanasiadis, P.

2012-04-01

Deep offshore ocean energy mapping requires detailed modeling of the wind, wave, tidal and ocean circulation estimations. It requires also detailed mapping of the associated extremes. An important issue in such work is the co-generation of energy (generation of wind, wave, tides, currents) in order to design platforms on an efficient way. For example wind and wave fields exhibit significant phase differences and therefore the produced energy from both sources together requires special analysis. The other two sources namely tides and currents have different temporal scales from the previous two. Another important issue is related to the estimation of the environmental frequencies in order to avoid structural problems. These are issues studied at the framework of the FP7 project MARINA PLATFORM. The main objective of the project is to develop deep water structures that can exploit the energy from wind, wave, tidal and ocean current energy sources. In particular, a primary goal will be the establishment of a set of equitable and transparent criteria for the evaluation of multi-purpose platforms for marine renewable energy. Using these criteria, a novel system set of design and optimisation tools will be produced addressing new platform design, component engineering, risk assessment, spatial planning, platform-related grid connection concepts, all focussed on system integration and reducing costs. The University of Athens group is in charge for estimation and mapping of wind, wave, tidal and ocean current resources, estimate available energy potential, map extreme event characteristics and provide any additional environmental parameter required.

Site Characterization at a Tidal Energy Site in the East River, NY (usa)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gunawan, B.; Neary, V. S.; Colby, J.

2012-12-01

A comprehensive tidal energy site characterization is performed using ADV measurements of instantaneous horizontal current magnitude and direction at the planned hub centerline of a tidal turbine over a two month period, and contributes to the growing data base of tidal energy site hydrodynamic conditions. The temporal variation, mean current statistics, and turbulence of the key tidal hydrodynamic parameters are examined in detail, and compared to estimates from two tidal energy sites in Puget Sound. Tidal hydrodynamic conditions, including mean annual current (at hub height), the speed of extreme gusts (instantaneous horizontal currents acting normal to the rotor plane), and turbulence intensity (as proposed here, relative to a mean current of 2 m s-1) can vary greatly among tidal energy sites. Comparison of hydrodynamic conditions measured in the East River tidal straight in New York City with those reported for two tidal energy sites in Puget Sound indicate differences of mean annual current speeds, difference in the instantaneous current speeds of extreme gusts, and differences in turbulence intensities. Significant differences in these parameters among the tidal energy sites, and with the tidal resource assessment map, highlight the importance of conducting site resource characterization with ADV measurements at the machine scale. As with the wind industry, which adopted an International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC) wind class standard to aid in the selection of wind turbines for a particular site, it is recommended that the tidal energy industry adopt an appropriate standard for tidal current classes. Such a standard requires a comprehensive field campaign at multiple tidal energy sites that can identify the key hydrodynamic parameters for tidal current site classification, select a list of tidal energy sites that exhibit the range of hydrodynamic conditions that will be encountered, and adopt consistent measurement practices (standards) for site classification.

Projected wave conditions in the Eastern North Pacific under the influence of two CMIP5 climate scenarios

USGS Publications Warehouse

Erikson, Li H.; Hegermiller, Christie; Barnard, Patrick; Ruggiero, Peter; van Ormondt, Martin

2015-01-01

Hindcast and 21st century winds, simulated by General Circulation Models (GCMs), were used to drive global- and regional-scale spectral wind-wave generation models in the Pacific Ocean Basin to assess future wave conditions along the margins of the North American west coast and Hawaiian Islands. Three-hourly winds simulated by four separate GCMs were used to generate an ensemble of wave conditions for a recent historical time-period (1976–2005) and projections for the mid and latter parts of the 21st century under two radiative forcing scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5), as defined by the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5) experiments. Comparisons of results from historical simulations with wave buoy and ERA-Interim wave reanalysis data indicate acceptable model performance of wave heights, periods, and directions, giving credence to generating projections. Mean and extreme wave heights are projected to decrease along much of the North American west coast. Extreme wave heights are projected to decrease south of ∼50°N and increase to the north, whereas extreme wave periods are projected to mostly increase. Incident wave directions associated with extreme wave heights are projected to rotate clockwise at the eastern end of the Aleutian Islands and counterclockwise offshore of Southern California. Local spatial patterns of the changing wave climate are similar under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, but stronger magnitudes of change are projected under RCP 8.5. Findings of this study are similar to previous work using CMIP3 GCMs that indicates decreasing mean and extreme wave conditions in the Eastern North Pacific, but differ from other studies with respect to magnitude and local patterns of change. This study contributes toward a larger ensemble of global and regional climate projections needed to better assess uncertainty of potential future wave climate change, and provides model boundary conditions for assessing the impacts of climate change on coastal systems.

Validation and deployment of the first Lidar based weather observation network in New York State: The NYS MesoNet Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thobois, L.; Freedman, J.; Royer, P.; Brotzge, J.; Joseph, E.

2018-04-01

The number and quality of atmospheric observations used by meteorologists and operational forecasters are increasing year after year, and yet, consistent improvements in forecast skill remains a challenge. While contributing factors involving these challenges have been identified, including the difficulty in accurately establishing initial conditions, improving the observations at regional and local scales is necessary for accurate depiction of the atmospheric boundary layer (below 2km), particularly the wind profile, in high resolution numerical models. Above the uncertainty of weather forecasts, the goal is also to improve the detection of severe and extreme weather events (severe thunderstorms, tornadoes and other mesoscale phenomena) that can adversely affect life, property and commerce, primarily in densely populated urban centers. This paper will describe the New York State Mesonet that is being deployed in the state of New York, USA. It is composed of 126 stations including 17 profiler sites. These sites will acquire continuous upper air observations through the combination of WINDCUBE Lidars and microwave radiometers. These stations will provide temperature, relative humidity & "3D" wind profile measurements through and above the planetary boundary layer (PBL) and will retrieve derived atmospheric quantities such as the PBL height, cloud base, momentum fluxes, and aerosol & cloud optical properties. The different modes and configurations that will be used for the Lidars are discussed. The performances in terms of data availability and wind accuracy and precision are evaluated. Several profiles with specific wind and aerosol features are presented to illustrate the benefits of the use of Coherent Doppler Lidars to monitor accurately the PBL.

Anomalous meridional thermospheric neutral winds in the AE-E NATE data: Effects of the equatorial nighttime pressure bulge

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Goembel, L.; Herrero, F. A.

1995-01-01

The work described here makes it possible to identify anomalous wind behavior such as the nighttime meridional wind abatements that occur at F-region heights. A new analysis technique uses a simple empirical wind model to simulate measurements of 'normal' winds (as measured by the Neutral Atmosphere and Temperature Experiment (NATE) that flew on the Atmosphere Explorer-E (AE-E)) to highlight anomalous wind measurements made by the satellite while in circular orbits at 270-290 km altitude. Our approach is based on the recognition that the 'in orbit' wind variation must show the combined effects of the diurnal wind variation as seen from the ground with the latitude variation of the satellite orbit. For the data period 77250-78035 examined thus far, the wind abatement always occurred with a corresponding pressure or temperature maximum, and was detected on 12 out of the 36 nights with data. This study has revealed that the wind abatement occur only during or shortly after increases in solar extreme ultraviolet (EUV) flux, as indicated by daily radio flux measurements. In the past, nighttime wind reversals at mid-latitudes have been associated with increased geomagnetic activity. This study indicates that intensified solar EUV heating may be responsible for anomalous thermospheric nighttime winds at mid-latitudes.

Temperature and moisture conditions for life in the extreme arid region of the Atacama desert: four years of observations including the El Nino of 1997-1998

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

McKay, Christopher P.; Friedmann, E. Imre; Gomez-Silva, Benito; Caceres-Villanueva, Luis; Andersen, Dale T.; Landheim, Ragnhild

2003-01-01

The Atacama along the Pacific Coast of Chile and Peru is one of the driest and possibly oldest deserts in the world. It represents an extreme habitat for life on Earth and is an analog for life in dry conditions on Mars. We report on four years (September 1994-October 1998) of climate and moisture data from the extreme arid region of the Atacama. Our data are focused on understanding moisture sources and their role in creating suitable environments for photosynthetic microorganisms in the desert surface. The average air temperature was 16.5 degrees C and 16.6 degrees C in 1995 and 1996, respectively. The maximum air temperature recorded was 37.9 degrees C, and the minimum was -5.7 degrees C. Annual average sunlight was 336 and 335 W m(-2) in 1995 and 1996, respectively. Winds averaged a few meters per second, with strong fohn winds coming from the west exceeding 12 m s(-1). During our 4 years of observation there was only one significant rain event of 2.3 mm, which occurred near midnight local time. We suggest that this event was a rainout of a heavy fog. It is of interest that the strong El Nino of 1997-1998 brought heavy rainfall to the deserts of Peru, but did not bring significant rain to the central Atacama in Chile. Dew occurred at our station frequently following high nighttime relative humidity, but is not a significant source of moisture in the soil or under stones. Groundwater also does not contribute to surface moisture. Only the one rain event of 2.3 mm resulted in liquid water in the soil and beneath stones for a total of only 65-85 h over 4 years. The paucity of liquid water under stones is consistent with the apparent absence of hypolithic (under-stone) cyanobacteria, the only known primary producers in such extreme deserts.

Climatology at the Roque de LOS Muchachos Observatory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Varela, Antonia M.; Muñoz-Tuñón, Casiana

2009-09-01

The Roque de los Muchachos Observatory (ORM) at La Palma (Canary Islands) is one of the two top pre-selected sites for hosting the future European Extremely Large Telescope (E-ELT), the other ones are Ventarrones (Chile), Macon (Argentine) and Aklim (Maroc). Meteorological and seeing conditions are crucial both for the site selection and for telescope design and feasibility studies for adaptive optics. The ELTs shall be very sensitive to wind behavior when operating in open air, therefore ground level wind velocity and wind gust are also required for the feasibility of the telescope construction. Here we analyze the wind speed and wind direction, the air temperature, the relative humidity and the barometric pressure statistical results obtained from data recorded at different sites at the ORM by several Automatic Weather Stations (AWS) since 1985, day and night time separately. Ground wind speed regimes (775mbar) are compared with those provided by satellites from 200 to 700mbar. There exists also observational evidence of the correlation between the seeing and the wind speed and wind direction that will be discussed in this work.

Improving the Predictability of Severe Water Levels along the Coasts of Marginal Seas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ridder, N. N.; de Vries, H.; van den Brink, H.; De Vries, H.

2016-12-01

Extreme water levels can lead to catastrophic consequences with severe societal and economic repercussions. Particularly vulnerable are countries that are largely situated below sea level. To support and optimize forecast models, as well as future adaptation efforts, this study assesses the modeled contribution of storm surges and astronomical tides to total water levels under different air-sea momentum transfer parameterizations in a numerical surge model (WAQUA/DCSMv5) of the North Sea. It particularly focuses on the implications for the representation of extreme and rapidly recurring severe water levels over the past decades based on the example of the Netherlands. For this, WAQUA/DCSMv5, which is currently used to forecast coastal water levels in the Netherlands, is forced with ERA Interim reanalysis data. Model results are obtained from two different methodologies to parameterize air-sea momentum transfer. The first calculates the governing wind stress forcing using a drag coefficient derived from the conventional approach of wind speed dependent Charnock constants. The other uses instantaneous wind stress from the parameterization of the quasi-linear theory applied within the ECMWF wave model which is expected to deliver a more realistic forcing. The performance of both methods is tested by validating the model output with observations, paying particular attention to their ability to reproduce rapidly succeeding high water levels and extreme events. In a second step, the common features of and connections between these events are analyzed. The results of this study will allow recommendations for the improvement of water level forecasts within marginal seas and support decisions by policy makers. Furthermore, they will strengthen the general understanding of severe and extreme water levels as a whole and help to extend the currently limited knowledge about clustering events.

Why were California's wine country fires so destructive?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Keeley, Jon E.

2017-01-01

As of late October more than a dozen wildfires north of San Francisco had killed more than 40 people, burned approximately 160,000 acres and destroyed more than 7,000 structures.This tragic loss of life and property is unprecedented in California. However, the fires are not anomalous events in terms of their size, intensity or the speed with which they spread. Indeed, the path of the destructive Tubbs fire in Napa and Sonoma counties mirrors that of the Hanley fire of 1964. This extreme wind-driven fire burned under similar conditions, across much of the same landscape and covered an area substantially greater than the recent Tubbs fire.Strikingly, though, no lives were lost during the Hanley fire and only 29 structures were destroyed. Why did these two fires, 50 years apart, burn on the same general landscape, under similar extreme winds, with such different human impacts? Fire scientists will study these events intensively to parse out the relative importance of various factors. But it is clear that two factors probably were major contributors: wind and population growth.

Observations relating extreme multi-basin river flows to very severe gales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hillier, John; De Luca, Paolo; Wilby, Rob; Quinn, Nevil; Harrigan, Shaun

2017-04-01

Fluvial foods are typically investigated as 'events' at the single basin scale. However, applying a recently developed methodology to identify the largest multi-basin peak flow events allows a statistically significant relationship between them and episodes of very severe gales (VSG) to be identified; such a systematic link has previously only very tentatively been proposed for extra-tropical cyclone seasons, where damaging wind and rain are commonly non-synchronous. Annual maximum river peak flow (AMAX) data during 1975-2014 for 261 non-nested catchments (i.e. with no other sites upstream) in Great Britain are used, and a 13-day window is selected. A simple correlation between metrics that are proxies for damaging wind and flooding is statistically significant (r = 0.41, p = 0.0088). Also, taking the most severe 50% and 30% of years for wind and flow respectively, co-occurrence is expected 6.6 times in 40 years whilst 10 are observed (p = 0.021; simulation with n = 10,000), making co-occurrence of the extremes 52% more likely than expected by chance. This has implications for emergency response and financial planning (e.g. insurance).

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Larsen, Peter H.; LaCommare, Kristina H.; Eto, Joseph H.

Here, this study examines the relationship between annual changes in electricity reliability reported by a large cross-section of U.S. electricity distribution utilities over a period of 13 years and a broad set of potential explanatory variables, including weather and utility characteristics. We find statistically significant correlations between the average number of power interruptions experienced annually and above average wind speeds, precipitation, lightning strikes, and a measure of population density: customers per line mile. We also find significant relationships between the average number of minutes of power interruptions experienced and above average wind speeds, precipitation, cooling degree-days, and one strategy usedmore » to mitigate the impacts of severe weather: the amount of underground transmission and distribution line miles. Perhaps most importantly, we find a significant time trend of increasing annual average number of minutes of power interruptions over time—especially when interruptions associated with extreme weather are included. Lastly, the research method described in this analysis can provide a basis for future efforts to project long-term trends in reliability and the associated benefits of strategies to improve grid resiliency to severe weather—both in the U.S. and abroad.« less

Implementation of a Space Weather VOEvent service at IRAP in the frame of Europlanet H2020 PSWS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gangloff, M.; André, N.; Génot, V.; Cecconi, B.; Le Sidaner, P.; Bouchemit, M.; Budnik, E.; Jourdane, N.

2017-09-01

Under Horizon 2020, the Europlanet Research Infrastructure includes PSWS (Planetary Space Weather Services), a set of new services that extend the concepts of space weather and space situation awareness to other planets of our solar system. One of these services is an Alert service associated in particular with an heliospheric propagator tool for solar wind predictions at planets, a meteor shower prediction tool, and a cometary tail crossing prediction tool. This Alert service, is based on VOEvent, an international standard proposed by the IVOA and widely used by the astronomy community. The VOEvent standard provides a means of describing transient celestial events in a machine-readable format. VOEvent is associated with VTP, the VOEvent Transfer Protocol that defines the system by which VOEvents may be disseminated to the community This presentation will focus on the enhancements of the VOEvent standard necessary to take into account the needs of the Solar System community and Comet, a freely available and open source implementation of VTP used by PSWS for its Alert service. Comet is implemented by several partners of PSWS, including IRAP and Observatoire de Paris. A use case will be presented for the heliospheric propagator tool based on extreme solar wind pressure pulses predicted at planets and probes from a 1D MHD model and real time observations of solar wind parameters.

Wind Evaluation Breadboard electronics and software

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Núñez, Miguel; Reyes, Marcos; Viera, Teodora; Zuluaga, Pablo

2008-07-01

WEB, the Wind Evaluation Breadboard, is an Extremely Large Telescope Primary Mirror simulator, developed with the aim of quantifying the ability of a segmented primary mirror to cope with wind disturbances. This instrument supported by the European Community (Framework Programme 6, ELT Design Study), is developed by ESO, IAC, MEDIA-ALTRAN, JUPASA and FOGALE. The WEB is a bench of about 20 tons and 7 meter diameter emulating a segmented primary mirror and its cell, with 7 hexagonal segments simulators, including electromechanical support systems. In this paper we present the WEB central control electronics and the software development which has to interface with: position actuators, auxiliary slave actuators, edge sensors, azimuth ring, elevation actuator, meteorological station and air balloons enclosure. The set of subsystems to control is a reduced version of a real telescope segmented primary mirror control system with high real time performance but emphasizing on development time efficiency and flexibility, because WEB is a test bench. The paper includes a detailed description of hardware and software, paying special attention to real time performance. The Hardware is composed of three computers and the Software architecture has been divided in three intercommunicated applications and they have been implemented using Labview over Windows XP and Pharlap ETS real time operating system. The edge sensors and position actuators close loop has a sampling and commanding frequency of 1KHz.

Quantifying the relationship between extreme air pollution events and extreme weather events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Henian; Wang, Yuhang; Park, Tae-Won; Deng, Yi

2017-05-01

Extreme weather events can strongly affect surface air quality, which has become a major environmental factor to affect human health. Here, we examined the relationship between extreme ozone and PM2.5 (particular matter with an aerodynamic diameter less than 2.5 μm) events and the representative meteorological parameters such as daily maximum temperature (Tmax), minimum relative humidity (RHmin), and minimum wind speed (Vmin), using the location-specific 95th or 5th percentile threshold derived from historical reanalysis data (30 years for ozone and 10 years for PM2.5). We found that ozone and PM2.5 extremes were decreasing over the years, reflecting EPA's tightened standards and effort on reducing the corresponding precursor's emissions. Annual ozone and PM2.5 extreme days were highly correlated with Tmax and RHmin, especially in the eastern U.S. They were positively (negatively) correlated with Vmin in urban (rural and suburban) stations. The overlapping ratios of ozone extreme days with Tmax were fairly constant, about 32%, and tended to be high in fall and low in winter. Ozone extreme days were most sensitive to Tmax, then RHmin, and least sensitive to Vmin. The majority of ozone extremes occurred when Tmax was between 300 K and 320 K, RHmin was less than 40%, and Vmin was less than 3 m/s. The number of annual extreme PM2.5 days was highly positively correlated with the extreme RHmin/Tmax days, with correlation coefficient between PM2.5/RHmin highest in urban and suburban regions and the correlation coefficient between PM2.5/Tmax highest in rural area. Tmax has more impact on PM2.5 extreme over the eastern U.S. Extreme PM2.5 days were more likely to occur at low RH conditions in the central and southeastern U.S., especially during spring time, and at high RH conditions in the northern U.S. and the Great Plains. Most extreme PM2.5 events occurred when Tmax was between 300 K and 320 K and RHmin was between 10% and 50%. Extreme PM2.5 days usually occurred when Vmin was under 2 m/s. However, during spring season in the Southeast and fall season in Northwest, high winds were found to accompany extreme PM2.5 days, likely reflecting the impact of fire emissions.

Laboratory Simulations of Martian and Venusian Aeolian Processes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Greeley, Ronald

1999-01-01

With the flyby of the Neptune system by Voyager, the preliminary exploration of the Solar System was accomplished. Data have been returned for all major planets and satellites except the Pluto system. Results show that the surfaces of terrestrial planets and satellites have been subjected to a wide variety of geological processes. On solid- surface planetary objects having an atmosphere, aeolian processes are important in modifying their surfaces through the redistribution of fine-grained material by the wind. Bedrock may be eroded to produce particles and the particles transported by wind for deposition in other areas. This process operates on Earth today and is evident throughout the geological record. Aeolian processes also occur on Mars, Venus, and possibly Titan and Triton, both of which are outer planet satellites that have atmospheres. Mariner 9 and Viking results show abundant wind-related landforms on Mars, including dune fields and yardangs (wind-eroded hills). On Venus, measurements made by the Soviet Venera and Vega spacecraft and extrapolations from the Pioneer Venus atmospheric probes show that surface winds are capable of transporting particulate materials and suggest that aeolian processes may operate on that planet as well. Magellan radar images of Venus show abundant wind streaks in some areas, as well as dune fields and a zone of possible yardangs. The study of planetary aeolian processes must take into account diverse environments, from the cold, low-density atmosphere of Mars to the extremely hot, high- density Venusian atmosphere. Factors such as threshold wind speeds (minimum wind velocity needed to move particles), rates of erosion and deposition, trajectories of windblown particles, and aeolian flow fields over various landforms are all important aspects of the problem. In addition, study of aeolian terrains on Earth using data analogous to planetary data-collection systems is critical to the interpretation of spacecraft information and places constraints on results from numerical models and laboratory simulations.

Sudden Radiative Braking in Colliding Hot-Star Winds

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gayley, K. G.; Owocki, S. P.; Cranmer, S. R.

1996-01-01

When two hot-star winds collide, their interaction centers at the point where the momentum fluxes balance. However, in WR+O systems, the imbalance in the corporeal momentum fluxes may be extreme enough to preclude a standard head-on wind/wind collision. On the other hand, an important component of the total momentum flux in radiatively driven winds is carried by photons. Thus, if the wind interaction region has sufficient scattering opacity, it can reflect stellar photons and cause important radiative terms to enter the momentum balance. This radiative input would result in additional braking of the wind. We use a radiative-hydrodynamics calculation to show that such radiative braking can be an important effect in many types of colliding hot-star winds. Characterized by sudden deceleration of the stronger wind in the vicinity of the weak-wind star, it can allow a wind ram balance that would otherwise be impossible in many WR+O systems with separations less than a few hundred solar radii. It also greatly weakens the shock strength and the encumbent X ray production. We demonstrate the significant features of this effect using V444 Cygni as a characteristic example. We also derive a general analytic theory that applies to a wide class of binaries, yielding simple predictions for when radiative braking should play an important role.

Wind Fins: Novel Lower-Cost Wind Power System

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

David C. Morris; Dr. Will D. Swearingen

This project evaluated the technical feasibility of converting energy from the wind with a novel “wind fin” approach. This patent-pending technology has three major components: (1) a mast, (2) a vertical, hinged wind structure or fin, and (3) a power takeoff system. The wing structure responds to the wind with an oscillating motion, generating power. The overall project goal was to determine the basic technical feasibility of the wind fin technology. Specific objectives were the following: (1) to determine the wind energy-conversion performance of the wind fin and the degree to which its performance could be enhanced through basic designmore » improvements; (2) to determine how best to design the wind fin system to survive extreme winds; (3) to determine the cost-effectiveness of the best wind fin designs compared to state-of-the-art wind turbines; and (4) to develop conclusions about the overall technical feasibility of the wind fin system. Project work involved extensive computer modeling, wind-tunnel testing with small models, and testing of bench-scale models in a wind tunnel and outdoors in the wind. This project determined that the wind fin approach is technically feasible and likely to be commercially viable. Project results suggest that this new technology has the potential to harvest wind energy at approximately half the system cost of wind turbines in the 10kW range. Overall, the project demonstrated that the wind fin technology has the potential to increase the economic viability of small wind-power generation. In addition, it has the potential to eliminate lethality to birds and bats, overcome public objections to the aesthetics of wind-power machines, and significantly expand wind-power’s contribution to the national energy supply.« less

A Modeling Study of the Spring 2011 Extreme US Weather Activity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schubert, S.; Suarez, M.; Chang, Y.

2012-01-01

The spring of 2011 was characterized by record-breaking tornadic activity with substantial loss of life and destruction of property. While a waning La Nina and other atmospheric teleconnections have been implicated in the development of these extreme weather events, a quantitative assessment of their causes is still lacking. This study uses high resolution (1/4 lat/lon) GEOS-5 AGCM experiments to quantify the role of SSTs and soil moisture in the development of the extreme weather activity with a focus on April - the month of peak tornadic activity. The simulations, consisting of 22-member ensembles of three-month long simulations (initialized March 1st) reproduce the main features of the observed large-scale changes including the below-normal temperature and above-normal precipitation in the Central US, and the hot and dry conditions to the south. Various sensitivity experiments are conducted to separate the roles of the SST, soil moisture and the initial atmospheric conditions in the development and predictability of the atmospheric conditions (wind shear, moisture, etc.) favoring the severe weather activity and flooding.

Recent research and applications of numerical simulation for dynamic response of long-span bridges subjected to multiple loads.

PubMed

Chen, Zhiwei; Chen, Bo

2014-01-01

Many long-span bridges have been built throughout the world in recent years but they are often subject to multiple types of dynamic loads, especially those located in wind-prone regions and carrying both trains and road vehicles. To ensure the safety and functionality of these bridges, dynamic responses of long-span bridges are often required for bridge assessment. Given that there are several limitations for the assessment based on field measurement of dynamic responses, a promising approach is based on numerical simulation technologies. This paper provides a detailed review of key issues involved in dynamic response analysis of long-span multiload bridges based on numerical simulation technologies, including dynamic interactions between running trains and bridge, between running road vehicles and bridge, and between wind and bridge, and in the wind-vehicle-bridge coupled system. Then a comprehensive review is conducted for engineering applications of newly developed numerical simulation technologies to safety assessment of long-span bridges, such as assessment of fatigue damage and assessment under extreme events. Finally, the existing problems and promising research efforts for the numerical simulation technologies and their applications to assessment of long-span multiload bridges are explored.

Recent Research and Applications of Numerical Simulation for Dynamic Response of Long-Span Bridges Subjected to Multiple Loads

PubMed Central

Chen, Zhiwei; Chen, Bo

2014-01-01

Many long-span bridges have been built throughout the world in recent years but they are often subject to multiple types of dynamic loads, especially those located in wind-prone regions and carrying both trains and road vehicles. To ensure the safety and functionality of these bridges, dynamic responses of long-span bridges are often required for bridge assessment. Given that there are several limitations for the assessment based on field measurement of dynamic responses, a promising approach is based on numerical simulation technologies. This paper provides a detailed review of key issues involved in dynamic response analysis of long-span multiload bridges based on numerical simulation technologies, including dynamic interactions between running trains and bridge, between running road vehicles and bridge, and between wind and bridge, and in the wind-vehicle-bridge coupled system. Then a comprehensive review is conducted for engineering applications of newly developed numerical simulation technologies to safety assessment of long-span bridges, such as assessment of fatigue damage and assessment under extreme events. Finally, the existing problems and promising research efforts for the numerical simulation technologies and their applications to assessment of long-span multiload bridges are explored. PMID:25006597

Hurricane Isaac: observations and analysis of coastal change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Guy, Kristy K.; Stockdon, Hilary F.; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Doran, Kara S.; Morgan, Karen L.M.

2013-01-01

Understanding storm-induced coastal change and forecasting these changes require knowledge of the physical processes associated with a storm and the geomorphology of the impacted coastline. The primary physical process of interest is sediment transport that is driven by waves, currents, and storm surge associated with storms. Storm surge, which is the rise in water level due to the wind, barometric pressure, and other factors, allows both waves and currents to impact parts of the coast not normally exposed to these processes. Coastal geomorphology reflects the coastal changes associated with extreme-storm processes. Relevant geomorphic variables that are observable before and after storms include sand dune elevation, beach width, shoreline position, sediment grain size, and foreshore beach slope. These variables, in addition to hydrodynamic processes, can be used to quantify coastal change and are used to predict coastal vulnerability to storms (Stockdon and others, 2007). The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Assessment of Coastal Change Hazards (NACCH) project (http://coastal.er.usgs.gov/national-assessment/) provides hazard information to those concerned about the Nation’s coastlines, including residents of coastal areas, government agencies responsible for coastal management, and coastal researchers. Extreme-storm research is a component of the NACCH project (http://coastal.er.usgs.gov/hurricanes/) that includes development of predictive understanding, vulnerability assessments using models, and updated observations in response to specific storm events. In particular, observations were made to determine morphological changes associated with Hurricane Isaac, which made landfall in the United States first at Southwest Pass, at the mouth of the Mississippi River, at 0000 August 29, 2012 UTC (Coordinated Universal Time) and again, 8 hours later, west of Port Fourchon, Louisiana (Berg, 2013). Methods of observation included oblique aerial photography, airborne light detection and ranging (lidar) topographic surveys, and ground-based topographic surveys. This report documents data-collection efforts and presents qualitative and quantitative descriptions of hurricane-induced changes to the shoreline, beaches, dunes, and infrastructure in the region that was heavily impacted by Hurricane Isaac. The report is divided into the following sections: Section 1: Introduction Section 2: Storm Overview, presents a synopsis of the storm, including meteorological evolution, wind speed impact area, wind-wave generation, and storm-surge extent and magnitudes. Section 3: Coastal-Change Observations, describes data-collection missions, including acquisition of oblique aerial photography and airborne lidar topographic surveys, in response to Hurricane Isaac. Section 4: Coastal-Change Analysis, describes data-analysis methods and observations of coastal change.

Yawing characteristics during slippage of the nacelle of a multi MW wind turbine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, M.-G.; Dalhoff, P. H.; Gust, P.

2016-09-01

High aerodynamic yaw loads coupled with electrical failures in the wind turbine can result to a slippage of the nacelle, due to limited braking capabilities of the yaw system. A slippage on the other hand can lead to a mechanical malfunction of the yaw system. To analyse the yawing characteristics of a wind turbine during nacelle slippage situations, a detailed multibody system model of the yaw system has been developed and incorporated in a multibody system model of a wind turbine based on a 3.3 MW turbine. Extreme load cases which lead to a nacelle slippage have been simulated. The dynamics and loads on different wind turbine components are presented and discussed. First results show minimal load increases of the rotor torque and the bending moments of the blade root sections during slippage but unfavourable rotational speeds of the yaw drives.

Santa Ana Winds of Southern California: Their climatology, extremes, and behavior spanning six and a half decades

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guzman-Morales, Janin; Gershunov, Alexander; Theiss, Jurgen; Li, Haiqin; Cayan, Daniel

2016-03-01

Santa Ana Winds (SAWs) are an integral feature of the regional climate of Southern California/Northern Baja California region, but their climate-scale behavior is poorly understood. In the present work, we identify SAWs in mesoscale dynamical downscaling of a global reanalysis from 1948 to 2012. Model winds are validated with anemometer observations. SAWs exhibit an organized pattern with strongest easterly winds on westward facing downwind slopes and muted magnitudes at sea and over desert lowlands. We construct hourly local and regional SAW indices and analyze elements of their behavior on daily, annual, and multidecadal timescales. SAWs occurrences peak in winter, but some of the strongest winds have occurred in fall. Finally, we observe that SAW intensity is influenced by prominent large-scale low-frequency modes of climate variability rooted in the tropical and north Pacific ocean-atmosphere system.

Analyzing wind turbine flow interaction through vibration data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Castellani, Francesco; D'Elia, Gianluca; Astolfi, Davide; Mucchi, Emiliano; Giorgio, Dalpiaz; Terzi, Ludovico

2016-09-01

Wind turbines commonly undergo non-stationary flow and, not rarely, even rather extreme phenomena. In particular, rough terrains represent a challenging testing ground, because of the combination of terrain-driven flow and wakes. It is therefore crucial to assess the impact of dynamic loads on the turbines. In this work, tower and drive-train vibrations are analyzed, from a subcluster of four turbines of a wind farm sited in a very complex terrain. The main outcome of the study is that it is possible to start from the analysis of wind conditions and interpret how wakes manifest in the vibrations of the turbines, both at structural level (tower vibrations) and at the drive-train level. This wind to gear approach therefore allows to build a connection between a flow phenomenon and a mechanical phenomenon (vibrations) and can be precious to assess loads in different working conditions.

The influence of wave-, wind- and tide-forced currents on headland sand bypassing - Study case: Santa Catarina Island north shore, Brazil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vieira da Silva, Guilherme; Toldo, Elírio E., Jr.; Klein, Antonio H. da F.; Short, Andrew D.

2018-07-01

Investigations of headland sand bypassing are still an under-reported subject in the literature. This paper aims to understand the contribution of currents forced by different mechanisms such as tides, winds (i.e. local wind acting over the ocean surface generating currents, without considering wave generation) and waves (as they approach/break on the coast) to headland sand bypassing. The study was carried out in an area comprising a series of seven headlands with varying wave exposure due to changes in shoreline orientation and increasing tidal influence close to a relatively large bay. This paper uses a calibrated and validated process-based model (Delft3D) to simulate a series of scenarios including spring and neap tides during flood and ebb conditions and a range of wind and wave scenarios that encompass both average and extreme conditions. The results indicate that waves are the main driving force for the headland bypassing as they transport sand at rates two orders of magnitude higher than tide- or wind-driven sediment transport. The tide-driven currents can only transport sediment during spring tides in locations where the currents are intensified. It is also demonstrated that the wave direction plays an important role in sediment transport. In exposed areas with larger headlands a combination of wave directions is required to first transport sediment offshore (out of the beach) and secondly to transport sediment alongshore and back to the next beach. Whereas in areas with little variation in wave direction exposure, the same oblique wave direction is responsible for the entire headland bypassing process. This is the first time the contribution of tide-, winds- and wave-generated sediment transport to headland bypassing have been studied.

An interhemispheric tropical sea level seesaw due to El Niño Taimasa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Widlansky, M. J.; Timmermann, A.; McGregor, S.; Stuecker, M. F.; Cai, W.

2013-12-01

During strong El Niño events, sea level drops around some tropical western Pacific islands by up to 20-30 cm. Such extreme events (referred to as ';taimasa' in Samoa) expose shallow reefs, thereby damaging associated coastal ecosystems and contributing to the formation of ';flat topped coral heads' often referred to as microatolls. We show that during the termination of strong El Niño events, a southward movement of weak trade winds and development of an anomalous anticyclone in the Philippine Sea force an interhemispheric sea level seesaw in the tropical Pacific which enhances and prolongs extreme low sea levels in the southwestern Pacific. Spectral features, in addition to wind forced linear shallow water ocean model experiments, identify an interaction between El Niño and the annual cycle as the main cause of these sea level anomalies. Given the well established seasonal prediction skill for El Niño events and their seasonally paced termination, our analysis suggests that long-duration extreme sea level drops may also be highly predictable.

Urban renewal based wind environment at pedestrian level in high-density and high-rise urban areas in Sai Ying Pun, Hong Kong

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yao, J. W.; Zheng, J. Y.; Zhao, Y.; Shao, Y. H.; Yuan, F.

2017-11-01

In high-density and high-rise urban areas, pedestrian level winds contribute to improve comfort, safety and diffusion of heat in urban areas. Outdoor wind study is extremely vital and a prerequisite in high-density cities considering that the immediate pedestrian level wind environment is fundamentally impacted by the presence of a series of high-rise buildings. In this paper, the research site of Sai Ying Pun in Hong Kong will be analysed in terms of geography, climate and urban morphology, while the surrounding natural ventilation has also been simulated by the wind tunnel experiment Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD). It has found that, the existing problems in this district are the contradiction between planning control and commercial interests, which means some areas around tall buildings are not benefit to the residents because of the unhealthy wind environment. Therefore, some recommendation of urban renewal strategy has been provided.

Final Scientific/Technical Report for Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction of Extratropical Storm Track Activity over the U.S. using NMME data

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chang, Edmund Kar-Man

The goals of the project are: 1) To develop and assess subseasonal to seasonal prediction products for storm track activity derived from NMME data; 2) Assess how much of the predictable signal can be associated with ENSO and other modes of large scale low frequency atmosphere-ocean variability; and 3) Further explore the link between storm track variations and extreme weather statistics. Significant findings of this project include the followings: 1) Our assessment of NMME reforecasts of storm track variability has demonstrated that NMME models have substantial skill in predicting storm track activity in the vicinity of North America - Subseasonalmore » skill is high only for leads of less than 1 month. However, seasonal (winter) prediction skill near North America is high even out to 4 to 5 months lead - Much of the skill for leads of 1 month or longer is related to the influence of ENSO - Nevertheless, lead 0 NMME predictions are significantly more skillful than those based on ENSO influence 2) Our results have demonstrated that storm track variations highly modulate the frequency of occurrence of weather extremes - Extreme cold, high wind, and extreme precipitation events in winter - Extreme heat events in summer - These results suggest that NMME storm track predictions can be developed to serve as a useful guidance to assist the formulation of monthly/seasonal outlooks« less

Assessing the Controversy between Altimetry, Radiometry, and Scatterometry: Satellite Observation Requirements for Trends in Extreme Winds and Waves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keefer, J.; Bourassa, M. A.

2014-12-01

A recent study (Young et al. 2011) investigated recent global trends in mean and extreme (90th- and 99th-percentile) wind speed and wave height. Wentz and Ricciardulli (2011) have criticized the study, citing the methodology solely employing data collected from a series of altimetry missions and lack of adequate verification of the results. An earlier study (Wentz et al. 2007) had differing results using data from microwave radiometers and scatterometers. This study serves as a response to these studies, employing a similar methodology but with a different set of data. Data collected from the QuikSCAT and ADEOS-2 SeaWinds scatterometers, SSMI(S), and TOPEX/POSEIDON and JASON-1 altimetry missions are used to calculate trends in the mean, 90th-, and 99th-percentile wind speed and wave height over the period 1999—2009. Linear regression analyses from the satellite missions are verified against regression analyses of data from the ERA-Interim reanalysis dataset. Temporal sampling presents the most critical consideration in the study. The scatterometers have a much greater independent temporal sampling (about 1.5 observations per day per satellite) than the altimeters (about 1 observation per 10 days). With this consideration, the satellite data are also used to sample the wind speeds in the ERA-Interim dataset. That portion of the study indicates the sampling requirements needed to accurately estimate the trends in the ERA-Interim reanalysis. Wentz, F.J., L. Ricciardulli, K. Hilburn, and C. Mears, 2007: How much more rain will global warming bring? Science, 317, 233-235. Wentz, F.J. and L. Ricciardulli, 2011: Comment on "Global trends in wind speed and wave height." Science, 334, 905. Young, I.R., S. Zieger, and A.V. Babanin, 2011a: Global trends in wind speed and wave height. Science, 332, 451-455.

16 CFR 1207.4 - Recommended standards for materials of manufacture.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... exposure to rain, snow, ice, sunlight, local, normal temperature extremes, local normal wind variations... be toxic to man or harmful to the environment under intended use and reasonably foreseeable abuse or...

16 CFR 1207.4 - Recommended standards for materials of manufacture.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... exposure to rain, snow, ice, sunlight, local, normal temperature extremes, local normal wind variations... be toxic to man or harmful to the environment under intended use and reasonably foreseeable abuse or...

16 CFR 1207.4 - Recommended standards for materials of manufacture.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... exposure to rain, snow, ice, sunlight, local, normal temperature extremes, local normal wind variations... be toxic to man or harmful to the environment under intended use and reasonably foreseeable abuse or...

16 CFR 1207.4 - Recommended standards for materials of manufacture.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... exposure to rain, snow, ice, sunlight, local, normal temperature extremes, local normal wind variations... be toxic to man or harmful to the environment under intended use and reasonably foreseeable abuse or...

A new class of galactic discrete gamma ray sources: Chaotic winds of massive stars

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chen, Wan; White, Richard L.

1992-01-01

We propose a new class of galactic discrete gamma-ray sources, the chaotic, high mass-loss-rate winds from luminous early-type stars. Early-type stellar winds are highly unstable due to intrinsic line-driven instabilities, and so are permeated by numerous strong shocks. These shocks can accelerate a small fraction of thermal electrons and ions to relativistic energies via the first-order Fermi mechanism. A power-law-like photon spectrum extending from keV to above 10 MeV energies is produced by inverse Compton scattering of the extremely abundant stellar UV photons by the relativistic electrons. In addition, a typical pi(sup 0)-decay gamma-ray spectrum is generated by proton-ion interactions in the densest part of the winds.

Progress towards extreme attitude testing with Magnetic Suspension and Balance Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Britcher, Colin P.; Parker, David H.

1988-01-01

Progress is reported in a research effort aimed towards demonstration of the feasibility of suspension and aerodynamic testing of models at high angles of attack in wind tunnel Magnetic Suspension and Balance Systems. Extensive modifications, described in this paper, have been made to the Southampton University suspension system in order to facilitate this work. They include revision of electromagnet configuration, installation of all-new position sensors and expansion of control system programs. An angle of attack range of 0 to 90 deg is expected for axisymmetric models. To date, suspension up to 80 deg angle of attack has been achieved.

Innovations at a European Planetary Simulation Facility

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Merrison, J.; Iversen, J. J.; Alois, S.; Rasmussen, K. R.

2017-09-01

This unique and recently improved planetary simulation facility is capable of re-creating extreme terrestrial, Martian and other planetary environments. It is supported by EU activities including Europlanet 2020 RI and a volcanology network VERTIGO. It is also used as a test facility by ESA for the forthcoming ExoMars 2020 mission. Specifically it is capable of recreating the key physical parameters such as temperature, pressure (gas composition), wind flow and importantly the suspension/transport of dust or sand particulates. This facility is available both to the scientific and Industrial community. The latest research and networking activities will be presented.

A new method for evaluating impacts of data assimilation with respect to tropical cyclone intensity forecast problem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vukicevic, T.; Uhlhorn, E.; Reasor, P.; Klotz, B.

2012-12-01

A significant potential for improving numerical model forecast skill of tropical cyclone (TC) intensity by assimilation of airborne inner core observations in high resolution models has been demonstrated in recent studies. Although encouraging , the results so far have not provided clear guidance on the critical information added by the inner core data assimilation with respect to the intensity forecast skill. Better understanding of the relationship between the intensity forecast and the value added by the assimilation is required to further the progress, including the assimilation of satellite observations. One of the major difficulties in evaluating such a relationship is the forecast verification metric of TC intensity: the maximum one-minute sustained wind speed at 10 m above surface. The difficulty results from two issues : 1) the metric refers to a practically unobservable quantity since it is an extreme value in a highly turbulent, and spatially-extensive wind field and 2) model- and observation-based estimates of this measure are not compatible in terms of spatial and temporal scales, even in high-resolution models. Although the need for predicting the extreme value of near surface wind is well justified, and the observation-based estimates that are used in practice are well thought of, a revised metric for the intensity is proposed for the purpose of numerical forecast evaluation and the impacts on the forecast. The metric should enable a robust observation- and model-resolvable and phenomenologically-based evaluation of the impacts. It is shown that the maximum intensity could be represented in terms of decomposition into deterministic and stochastic components of the wind field. Using the vortex-centric cylindrical reference frame, the deterministic component is defined as the sum of amplitudes of azimuthal wave numbers 0 and 1 at the radius of maximum wind, whereas the stochastic component is represented by a non-Gaussian PDF. This decomposition is exact and fully independent of individual TC properties. The decomposition of the maximum wind intensity was first evaluated using several sources of data including Step Frequency Microwave Radiometer surface wind speeds from NOAA and Air Force reconnaissance flights,NOAA P-3 Tail Doppler Radar measurements, and best track maximum intensity estimates as well as the simulations from Hurricane WRF Ensemble Data Assimilation System (HEDAS) experiments for 83 real data cases. The results confirmed validity of the method: the stochastic component of the maximum exibited a non-Gaussian PDF with small mean amplitude and variance that was comparable to the known best track error estimates. The results of the decomposition were then used to evaluate the impact of the improved initial conditions on the forecast. It was shown that the errors in the deterministic component of the intensity had the dominant effect on the forecast skill for the studied cases. This result suggests that the data assimilation of the inner core observations could focus primarily on improving the analysis of wave number 0 and 1 initial structure and on the mechanisms responsible for forcing the evolution of this low-wavenumber structure. For the latter analysis, the assimilation of airborne and satellite remote sensing observations could play significant role.

Tropical Processes Applications for CYGNSS

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lang, Timothy J.

2017-01-01

The Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYGNSS) is focused primarily on observing extreme winds in the inner core of tropical cyclones But... Named storms will occur in view of CYGNSS constellation for only a small percentage of the time on orbit And... Rapid-update, all-weather sampling of wind speeds has many other applications in Tropical Meteorology So... Many potential tropical processes applications for CYGNSS were identified in previous Workshop - Let's revisit some of these possibilities now that the mission is up.

The Statistical Mechanics of Solar Wind Hydroxylation at the Moon, Within Lunar Magnetic Anomalies, and at Phobos

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Farrell, W. M.; Hurley, D. M.; Esposito, V. J.; Mclain, J. L.; Zimmerman, M. I.

2017-01-01

We present a new formalism to describe the outgassing of hydrogen initially implanted by the solar wind protons into exposed soils on airless bodies. The formalism applies a statistical mechanics approach similar to that applied recently to molecular adsorption onto activated surfaces. The key element enabling this formalism is the recognition that the interatomic potential between the implanted H and regolith-residing oxides is not of singular value but possess a distribution of trapped energy values at a given temperature, F(U,T). All subsequent derivations of the outward diffusion and H retention rely on the specific properties of this distribution. We find that solar wind hydrogen can be retained if there are sites in the implantation layer with activation energy values exceeding 0.5eV. We especially examine the dependence of H retention applying characteristic energy values found previously for irradiated silica and mature lunar samples. We also apply the formalism to two cases that differ from the typical solar wind implantation at the Moon. First, we test for a case of implantation in magnetic anomaly regions where significantly lower-energy ions of solar wind origin are expected to be incident with the surface. In magnetic anomalies, H retention is found to be reduced due to the reduced ion flux and shallower depth of implantation. Second, we also apply the model to Phobos where the surface temperature range is not as extreme as the Moon. We find the H atom retention in this second case is higher than the lunar case due to the reduced thermal extremes (that reduces outgassing).

Foehn-induced effects on local dust pollution, frontal clouds and solar radiation in the Dead Sea valley

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kishcha, Pavel; Starobinets, Boris; Savir, Amit; Alpert, Pinhas; Kaplan, Michael

2018-06-01

Despite the long history of investigation of foehn phenomena, there are few studies of the influence of foehn winds on air pollution and none in the Dead Sea valley. For the first time the foehn phenomenon and its effects on local dust pollution, frontal cloudiness and surface solar radiation were analyzed in the Dead Sea valley, as it occurred on 22 March 2013. This was carried out using both numerical simulations and observations. The foehn winds intensified local dust emissions, while the foehn-induced temperature inversion trapped dust particles beneath this inversion. These two factors caused extreme surface dust concentration in the western Dead Sea valley. The dust pollution was transported by west winds eastward, to the central Dead Sea valley, where the speed of these winds sharply decreased. The transported dust was captured by the ascending airflow contributing to the maximum aerosol optical depth (AOD) over the central Dead Sea valley. On the day under study, the maximum surface dust concentration did not coincide with the maximum AOD: this being one of the specific effects of the foehn phenomenon on dust pollution in the Dead Sea valley. Radar data showed a passage of frontal cloudiness through the area of the Dead Sea valley leading to a sharp drop in noon solar radiation. The descending airflow over the downwind side of the Judean Mountains led to the formation of a cloud-free band followed by only the partial recovery of solar radiation because of the extreme dust pollution caused by foehn winds.

Seasonal and spatial variation of topside He+ column density obtained from Extreme Ultra Violet Imager onboard the International Space Station

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hozumi, Y.; Saito, A.; Murakami, G.; Yamazaki, A.; Yoshikawa, I.

2016-12-01

The seasonal, longitudinal and latitudinal variations of He+ distribution in the topside ionosphere in 2013 are elucidated with data of He+ resonant scattering obtained by Extreme Ultra Violet Imager (EUVI) onboard the International Space Station (ISS). EUVI provides a data set of the column density of He+ above the ISS orbit altitude. The data set provides a unique opportunity to study He+ distribution in the topside ionosphere from a different perspective of past studies using in-situ measurement data. During the solstice seasons, an enhancement of He+ column density in the winter hemisphere is observed. The magnitude of this hemispheric asymmetry shows a longitudinal variability. Around the June solstice, the hemispheric asymmetry was greater in the longitude sector where the geomagnetic declination angle is negative and smaller in the longitude sector where the geomagnetic declination angle is positive. Around the December solstice, on the other hand, this longitudinal variation of the asymmetry magnitude had opposite tendency. The hemispheric asymmetry of the effective neutral wind well explains this behavior of He+. The field-aligned component of neutral wind in the F-region is varied in longitude under the presence of finite geomagnetic declination angle and large zonal wind. In the equinox seasons, two longitudinal maxima were observed at around 140ºE and 30ºE. The longitudinal variation of the effective neutral wind is a candidate of these two maxima of He+ concentration. These results suggest that the transport of ions in the topside ionosphere is strongly affected by the F-region neutral wind.

Relativistic MHD modeling of magnetized neutron stars, pulsar winds, and their nebulae

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Del Zanna, L.; Pili, A. G.; Olmi, B.; Bucciantini, N.; Amato, E.

2018-01-01

Neutron stars are among the most fascinating astrophysical sources, being characterized by strong gravity, densities about the nuclear one or even above, and huge magnetic fields. Their observational signatures can be extremely diverse across the electromagnetic spectrum, ranging from the periodic and low-frequency signals of radio pulsars, up to the abrupt high-energy gamma-ray flares of magnetars, where energies of ∼ {10}46 {erg} are released in a few seconds. Fast-rotating and highly magnetized neutron stars are expected to launch powerful relativistic winds, whose interaction with the supernova remnants gives rise to the non-thermal emission of pulsar wind nebulae, which are known cosmic accelerators of electrons and positrons up to PeV energies. In the extreme cases of proto-magnetars (magnetic fields of ∼ {10}15 G and millisecond periods), a similar mechanism is likely to provide a viable engine for the still mysterious gamma-ray bursts. The key ingredient in all these spectacular manifestations of neutron stars is the presence of strong magnetic fields in their constituent plasma. Here we will present recent updates of a couple of state-of-the-art numerical investigations by the high-energy astrophysics group in Arcetri: a comprehensive modeling of the steady-state axisymmetric structure of rotating magnetized neutron stars in general relativity, and dynamical 3D MHD simulations of relativistic pulsar winds and their associated nebulae.

Pacific Region Integrated Climatology Information Products (PRICIP) Derived-data Products

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marra, J. J.

2008-12-01

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Integrated Data and Environmental Applications (IDEA) Center has initiated the Pacific Region Integrated Climatology Information Products (PRICIP) project to improve our understanding of patterns and trends of storm frequency and intensity - 'storminess'- within the Pacific region and develop a suite of integrated data and information products. Strong winds, heavy rains, and high seas theme-specific data integration and product development teams have been formed to carry out this work. These teams are comprised of recognized agency and university- based experts in the area of climate-related processes that govern storminess. They include representatives from NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC), Center for Operational Products and Services (CO-OPS), and National Weather Service (NWS), as well as the University of Hawai'i, University of Alaska, University of Guam, and Oregon State University. Each team is developing regional climatological overviews, identifying corresponding extremes indices, establishing data treatment and analysis protocols, and conducting analyses to establish baseline statistics, long term trends, patterns of variability, and event return recurrence intervals via Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) analyses. Preliminary results of these analyses can be viewed via a beta-version of a Google map- based query utility (http://www.pricip.org/ddp.php ). Data sources for these analyses include NOAA's Integrated Surface Hourly (ISH) mean sea level pressure and wind speed data; the Global Historical Climate Network (GHCN) precipitation dataset; the National Water Level Observing Network (NWLON) sea level station records; the National Data Buoy Center (NDBC) wave buoy records; the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers" Coastal Data Information (CDIP) buoy data, and other data. The northern and central north Pacific, which includes Alaska, the Pacific Northwest, and Hawai'i, have been targeted as initial priority areas. It is envisioned that the results of this effort will be used by emergency managers, mitigation planners, government agencies and decision-makers in key sectors including water and natural resource management, agriculture and fisheries, transportation and communication, and recreation and tourism.

El Nino, from 1870 to 2014, and other Atmospheric Circulation Forcing by Extreme Apparitions of the Eight Annual, Continental Scale, Aerosol Plumes in the Satellite Era which Point to a Possible Cause for the Current Californian Drought

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Potts, K. A.

2015-12-01

Eight continental scale aerosol plumes exist each year as the enclosed image shows. Apparitions of seven plumes only exist for a few months in the same season each year whilst the East Asian Plume is visible all year. The aerosol optical depth (AOD) of all the plumes varies enormously interannually with two studies showing the surface radiative forcing of the South East Asian Plume (SEAP) as -150W/m2 and -286W/m2/AOD. I show that the SEAP, created by volcanic aerosols (natural) and biomass burning and gas flares in the oil industry (anthropogenic), is the sole cause of all El Nino events, the greatest interannual perturbation of the atmospheric circulation system. The SEAP creates an El Nino by absorbing solar radiation at the top of the plume which heats the upper atmosphere and cools the surface. This creates a temperature inversion compared to periods without the plume and reduces convection. With reduced convection in SE Asia, the Maritime Continent, the Trade Winds blowing across the Pacific are forced to relax as their exit into the Hadley and Walker Cells is constrained and the reduced Trade Wind speed causes the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) to rise in the central tropical Pacific Ocean as there is a strong negative correlation between wind speed and SST. The warmer SST in the central Pacific creates convection in the region which further reduces the Trade Wind speed and causes the Walker Cell to reverse - a classic El Nino. Having established the ability of such extreme aerosol plumes to create El Nino events I will then show how the South American, West African, Middle East and SEAP plumes create drought in the Amazon, Spain, Darfur and Australia as well as causing the extremely warm autumn and winter in Europe in 2006-07. All these effects are created by the plumes reducing convection in the region of the plume which forces the regional Hadley Cells into anomalous positions thereby creating persistent high pressure cells in the mid latitudes. This perturbs the mid latitude storm tracks and creates persistent high and low pressure regions around the World at those latitudes giving rise to extreme events by causing the regional winds to blow persistently from one direction. Finally I will suggest which plumes may be causing the high pressure ridge in the NE Pacific which is causing the severe drought in California.

Assessing extreme sea levels due to tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muis, Sanne; Lin, Ning; Verlaan, Martin; Winsemius, Hessel; Vatvani, Deepak; Ward, Philip; Aerts, Jeroen

2017-04-01

Tropical cyclones (TCs), including hurricanes and typhoons, are characterised by high wind speeds and low pressure and cause dangerous storm surges in coastal areas. Over the last 50 years, storm surge incidents in the Atlantic accounted for more than 1,000 deaths in the United Stated. Recent flooding disasters, such as Hurricane Katrina in New Orleans in 2005 and, Hurricane Sandy in New York in 2012, exemplify the significant TC surge risk in the United States. In this contribution, we build on Muis et al. (2016), and present a new modelling framework to simulate TC storm surges and estimate their probabilities for the Atlantic basin. In our framework we simulate the surge levels by forcing the Global Tide and Surge Model (GTSM) with wind and pressure fields from TC events. To test the method, we apply it to historical storms that occurred between 1988 and 2015 in the Atlantic Basin. We obtain high-resolution meteorological forcing by applying a parametric hurricane model (Holland 1980; Lin and Chavas 2012) to the TC extended track data set (Demuth et al. 2006; updated), which describes the position, intensity and size of the historical TCs. Preliminary results show that this framework is capable of accurately reproducing the main surge characteristics during past events, including Sandy and Katrina. While the resolution of GTSM is limited for local areas with a complex bathymetry, the overall performance of the model is satisfactory for the basin-scale application. For an accurate assessment of risk to coastal flooding in the Atlantic basin it is essential to provide reliable estimates of surge probabilities. However, the length of observed TC tracks is too short to accurately estimate the probabilities of extreme TC events. So next steps are to statistically extend the observed record to many thousands of years (e.g., Emanuel et al. 2006), in order to force GTSM with a large number of synthetic storms. Based on these synthetic simulations, we would be able to provide reliable probabilities of surge levels for the entire Atlantic basin. References Demuth, J., DeMaria, M., and Knaff, J.A. (2006). Improvement of advanced microwave sounder unit tropical cyclone intensity and size estimation algorithms. Journal of Applied Meteorology., 45, pp. 1573-1581. Emanuel, K., Ravela, S., Vivant, E. and Risi, C. (2006). A statistical deterministic approach to hurricane risk assessment. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 87(3), pp.299-314. Holland, G.J. (1980). An analytic model of the wind and pressure profiles in hurricanes. Monthly Weather Review, 108(8), pp.1212-1218. Lin, N. and D. Chavas (2012). On hurricane parametric wind and applications in storm surge modeling. Journal of Geophysical Research - Atmospheres. 117. doi:10.1029/2011jd017126. Muis, S., Verlaan, M., Winsemius, H. C., Aerts, J. C. J. H., & Ward, P. J. (2016). A global reanalysis of storm surge and extreme sea levels. Nature Communications, 7(7:11969), 1-11.

Extreme Event impacts on Seafloor Ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Canals, Miquel; Sanchez-Vidal, Anna; Calafat, Antoni; Pedrosa-Pàmies, Rut; Lastras, Galderic

2013-04-01

The Mediterranean region is among those presenting the highest concentration of cyclogenesis during the northern hemisphere winter, thus is frequently subjected to sudden events of extreme weather. The highest frequency of storm winds occur in its northwestern basin, and is associated to NE and NW storms. The occurrence of such extreme climatic events represents an opportunity of high scientific value to investigate how natural processes at their peaks of activity transfer matter and energy, as well as how impact ecosystems. Due to the approximately NE-SW orientation of the western Mediterranean coast, windforced motion coming from eastern storms generate the most intense waves and with very long fetch in the continental shelf and the coast, causing beach erosion, overwash and inundation of low-lying areas, and damage to infrastructures and coastal resources. On December 26, 2008 a huge storm afforded us the opportunity to understand the effect of storms on the deep sea ecosystems, as impacted violently an area of the Catalan coast covered by a dense network of monitoring devices including sediment traps and currentmeters. The storm, with measured wind gusts of more than 70 km h-1 and associated storm surge reaching 8 m, lead to the remobilisation of a shallow water large reservoir of marine organic carbon associated to fine particles and to its redistribution across the deep basin, and also ignited the motion of large amounts of coarse shelf sediment resulting in the abrasion and burial of benthic communities. In addition to eastern storms, increasing evidence has accumulated during the last few years showing the significance of Dense Shelf Water Cascading (DSWC), a type of marine current driven exclusively by seawater density contrast caused by strong and persistent NW winds, as a key driver of the deep Mediterranean Sea in many aspects. A network of mooring lines with sediment traps and currentmeters deployed in the Cap de Creus canyon in winter 2005-06 recorded a major DSWC event, the latest to date. Data show that DSWC modifies the properties of intermediate and deep waters, carries massive amounts of organic carbon to the basin thus fuelling the deep ecosystem, transports huge quantities of coarse and fine sedimentary particles that abrade canyon floors and rise the load of suspended particles, and also exports pollutants from the coastal area to deeper compartment. Our findings demonstrate that both types of climate-driven extreme events (coastal storms and DSWC) are highly efficient in transporting organic carbon from shallow to deep, thus contributing to its sequestration, and have the potential to tremendously impact the deep-sea ecosystems.

Numerical modeling of space-time wave extremes using WAVEWATCH III

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barbariol, Francesco; Alves, Jose-Henrique G. M.; Benetazzo, Alvise; Bergamasco, Filippo; Bertotti, Luciana; Carniel, Sandro; Cavaleri, Luigi; Y. Chao, Yung; Chawla, Arun; Ricchi, Antonio; Sclavo, Mauro; Tolman, Hendrik

2017-04-01

A novel implementation of parameters estimating the space-time wave extremes within the spectral wave model WAVEWATCH III (WW3) is presented. The new output parameters, available in WW3 version 5.16, rely on the theoretical model of Fedele (J Phys Oceanogr 42(9):1601-1615, 2012) extended by Benetazzo et al. (J Phys Oceanogr 45(9):2261-2275, 2015) to estimate the maximum second-order nonlinear crest height over a given space-time region. In order to assess the wave height associated to the maximum crest height and the maximum wave height (generally different in a broad-band stormy sea state), the linear quasi-determinism theory of Boccotti (2000) is considered. The new WW3 implementation is tested by simulating sea states and space-time extremes over the Mediterranean Sea (forced by the wind fields produced by the COSMO-ME atmospheric model). Model simulations are compared to space-time wave maxima observed on March 10th, 2014, in the northern Adriatic Sea (Italy), by a stereo camera system installed on-board the "Acqua Alta" oceanographic tower. Results show that modeled space-time extremes are in general agreement with observations. Differences are mostly ascribed to the accuracy of the wind forcing and, to a lesser extent, to the approximations introduced in the space-time extremes parameterizations. Model estimates are expected to be even more accurate over areas larger than the mean wavelength (for instance, the model grid size).

Relationships between teleconnection patterns and Turkish climatic extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baltacı, H.; Akkoyunlu, B. O.; Tayanç, M.

2017-12-01

This is a study on the effects of teleconnection patterns (TPs) on the extremes of temperature and precipitation over Turkey. Relationships between five teleconnection patterns, North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Arctic Oscillation (AO), East Atlantic-Western Russia (EAWR), East Atlantic (EA), and Scandinavian (SCA) patterns, and 11 climate extreme indices were studied by using 94 uniformly distributed meteorological stations over Turkey for the period of 1965-2014. Analyzing strong positive and negative temperature deviations from the 50-year-winter means shows that such extremes can often be explained by using AO and EAWR patterns. During the negative AO, generally more warm days occur over Black Sea (r = -0.6) and Aegean regions (r = -0.7). This phase of AO also generates above-normal precipitation in the western parts of the Anatolian Peninsula (r around - 0.5). Winter-time negative AO is mainly associated with the presence of a deepened Genoa cyclone over Italy that can transport warm and moist air mass from Mediterranean Sea towards Turkey by strong westerly winds. In contrast, positive EAWR is mainly connected to cold nights over Black Sea (r = 0.6) and Aegean regions (r = 0.6) together with positive precipitation anomalies at the seaside stations of the eastern Black Sea region. On the other hand, when positive EAWR prevails, Azores high-pressure center expands towards continental Europe bringing cold air by strong northerly winds together with higher moisture transport from the Black Sea. These results could pave the way for new possibilities regarding the projection of extremes in downscaling techniques.

A stochastic wind turbine wake model based on new metrics for wake characterization: A stochastic wind turbine wake model based on new metrics for wake characterization

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Doubrawa, Paula; Barthelmie, Rebecca J.; Wang, Hui

Understanding the detailed dynamics of wind turbine wakes is critical to predicting the performance and maximizing the efficiency of wind farms. This knowledge requires atmospheric data at a high spatial and temporal resolution, which are not easily obtained from direct measurements. Therefore, research is often based on numerical models, which vary in fidelity and computational cost. The simplest models produce axisymmetric wakes and are only valid beyond the near wake. Higher-fidelity results can be obtained by solving the filtered Navier-Stokes equations at a resolution that is sufficient to resolve the relevant turbulence scales. This work addresses the gap between thesemore » two extremes by proposing a stochastic model that produces an unsteady asymmetric wake. The model is developed based on a large-eddy simulation (LES) of an offshore wind farm. Because there are several ways of characterizing wakes, the first part of this work explores different approaches to defining global wake characteristics. From these, a model is developed that captures essential features of a LES-generated wake at a small fraction of the cost. The synthetic wake successfully reproduces the mean characteristics of the original LES wake, including its area and stretching patterns, and statistics of the mean azimuthal radius. The mean and standard deviation of the wake width and height are also reproduced. This preliminary study focuses on reproducing the wake shape, while future work will incorporate velocity deficit and meandering, as well as different stability scenarios.« less

A flight-test and simulation evaluation of the longitudinal final approach and landing performance of an automatic system for a light wing loading STOL aircraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brown, S. C.; Hardy, G. H.; Hindson, W. S.

1983-01-01

As part of a comprehensive flight-test program of STOL operating systems for the terminal area, an automatic landing system was developed and evaluated for a light wing loading turboprop aircraft. The aircraft utilized an onboard advanced digital avionics system. Flight tests were conducted at a facility that included a STOL runway site with a microwave landing system. Longitudinal flight-test results were presented and compared with available (basically CTOL) criteria. These comparisons were augmented by results from a comprehensive simulation of the controlled aircraft which included representations of navigation errors that were encountered in flight and atmospheric disturbances. Acceptable performance on final approach and at touchdown was achieved by the autoland (automatic landing) system for the moderate winds and turbulence conditions encountered in flight. However, some touchdown performance goals were marginally achieved, and simulation results suggested that difficulties could be encountered in the presence of more extreme atmospheric conditions. Suggestions were made for improving performance under those more extreme conditions.

Horizontal geometrical reaction time model for two-beam nacelle LiDARs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beuth, Thorsten; Fox, Maik; Stork, Wilhelm

2015-06-01

Wind energy is one of the leading sustainable energies. To attract further private and state investment in this technology, a broad scaled drop of the cost of energy has to be enforced. There is a trend towards using Laser Doppler Velocimetry LiDAR systems for enhancing power output and minimizing downtimes, fatigue and extreme forces. Since most used LiDARs are horizontally setup on a nacelle and work with two beams, it is important to understand the geometrical configuration which is crucial to estimate reaction times for the actuators to compensate wind gusts. In the beginning of this article, the basic operating modes of wind turbines are explained and the literature on wind behavior is analyzed to derive specific wind speed and wind angle conditions in relation to the yaw angle of the hub. A short introduction to the requirements for the reconstruction of the wind vector length and wind angle leads to the problem of wind shear detection of angled but horizontal homogeneous wind fronts due to the spatial separation of the measuring points. A distance is defined in which the wind shear of such homogeneous wind fronts is not present which is used as a base to estimate further distance calculations. The reaction time of the controller and the actuators are having a negative effect on the effective overall reaction time for wind regulation as well. In the end, exemplary calculations estimate benefits and disadvantages of system parameters for wind gust regulating LiDARs for a wind turbine of typical size. An outlook shows possible future improvements concerning the vertical wind behavior.

16 CFR § 1207.4 - Recommended standards for materials of manufacture.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... exposure to rain, snow, ice, sunlight, local, normal temperature extremes, local normal wind variations... be toxic to man or harmful to the environment under intended use and reasonably foreseeable abuse or...

Extreme Storm Surges in the North Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goennert, G.; Buß, Th.; Mueller, O.; Thumm, S.

2009-04-01

Extreme Storm Surges in the North Sea Gabriele Gönnert, Olaf Müller, Thomas Buß and Sigrid Thumm Climate Change will cause a rise of the sea level and probably more frequent and more violent storm surges. This has serious consequences for the safety of people as well as for their values and assets behind the dikes. It is therefore inevitable to first assess how sea level rise and an extreme storm surge event designes. In a second step it is possible to determine the risk for specific locations and develop strategies. The Project XtremRisk - Extreme Storm Surges at the North Sea Coast and in Estuaries. Risk calculation and risk strategies, funded by the German Federal Government will help answering these questions. The „Source-Pathway-Receptor" Concept will be used as a basis for risk analysis and development of new strategies. The Project offers methods to assess the development of extreme events under the conditions of today. Under conditions reflecting the climate change it will be tried to design an extreme event. For these three main points will be considered: a) Analysis and calculation of each factor, which produce a storm surge and its maximum level occurring in the last 100 years. These are: - maximum surge level: surge (due to the wind), - influence of the tide and the interaction between surge and tide, - influence of external surges , b) The hydrodynamics of a storm surge cause nonlinear effects in the interaction of the named factors. These factors and effects will both be taken into account to calculate the magnitude of the extreme storm surge. This step is very complex and need additional examination by numerical models. c) Analysis of the different scenarios to mean sea level rise and to the increase of wind speed due to the climate change. The presentation will introduce methods and show first results of the analysis of extreme events and the mean sea level rise.

Energetics characteristics accounting for the explosive development of a twin extratropical cyclone over the Northwest Pacific Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fu, Shenming

2017-04-01

A twin extratropical cyclone that appeared over the Northwest Pacific Ocean during the winter of 2011 is reproduced reasonably well by the fifth-generation PSU-NCAR Mesoscale Model (MM5). One cyclone in this event has developed into an extreme explosive extratropical cyclone (EEC), with a maximum deepening rate up to 2.7 Bergeron, a minimum SLP of 933 hPa, and a maximum surface wind of 33 m s-1, which means its intensity is comparable with the intensity of a typhoon. The rotational and divergent wind kinetic energy (KE) budget equations are applied to this twin cyclone event so as to understand the rapid enhancement of the wind speed in this case. Preliminary results indicate that, overall, the rotational wind KE is much larger than the divergent wind KE, however, the latter can be of comparable intensity with the rotational wind KE around the regions where the wind speed strengthened most rapidly. Different quadrants of the twin cyclone show significant unevenness, overall, the southeastern quadrant of the EEC features the rapidest enhancement of wind speed, whereas the northwestern quadrant shows the slowest wind-speed acceleration. The vertical stretching of the EEC show consistent variation features with the rotational wind KE. The transport of KE by rotational wind, the conversion from divergent wind KE to rotational wind KE, and the work done by pressure gradient force all contributed to the enhancement of rotational wind KE. In contrast, the divergent wind KE is mainly produced by the baroclinic energy conversion.

Added value of high-resolution regional climate model over the Bohai Sea and Yellow Sea areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Delei; von Storch, Hans; Geyer, Beate

2016-04-01

Added value from dynamical downscaling has long been a crucial and debatable issue in regional climate studies. A 34 year (1979-2012) high-resolution (7 km grid) atmospheric hindcast over the Bohai Sea and the Yellow Sea (BYS) has been performed using COSMO-CLM (CCLM) forced by ERA-Interim reanalysis data (ERA-I). The accuracy of CCLM in surface wind reproduction and the added value of dynamical downscaling to ERA-I have been investigated through comparisons with the satellite data (including QuikSCAT Level2B 12.5 km version 3 (L2B12v3) swath data and MODIS images) and in situ observations, with adoption of quantitative metrics and qualitative assessment methods. The results revealed that CCLM has a reliable ability to reproduce the regional wind characteristics over the BYS areas. Over marine areas, added value to ERA-I has been detected in the coastal areas with complex coastlines and orography. CCLM was better able to represent light and moderate winds but has even more added value for strong winds relative to ERA-I. Over land areas, the high-resolution CCLM hindcast can add value to ERA-I in reproducing wind intensities and direction, wind probability distribution and extreme winds mainly at mountain areas. With respect to atmospheric processes, CCLM outperforms ERA-I in resolving detailed temporal and spatial structures for phenomena of a typhoon and of a coastal atmospheric front; CCLM generates some orography related phenomena such as a vortex street which is not captured by ERA-I. These added values demonstrate the utility of the 7-km-resolution CCLM for regional and local climate studies and applications. The simulation was constrained with adoption of spectral nudging method. The results may be different when simulations are considered, which are not constrained by spectral nudging.

Propagation of the Sea of Azov plume in the Black Sea and its relation with atmospheric forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zavialov, Ivan; Osadchiev, Alexander

2017-04-01

This work is devoted to research of the influence of wind forcing on propagation of the Sea of Azov water plume in the Black Sea. The Sea of Azov water is characterized by relatively low salinity and high concentrations of suspended matter, terrigenic nutrients, and anthropogenic pollutants. Thus, the Sea of Azov inflow has significant impacts on physical, chemical, and biological processes in the Black Sea. The increased concentration of the suspended matter in the Sea of Azov plume allows to determine accurately its borders based on remote sensing data. For this purpose, data of the satellite color scanner MERIS/EnviSat with 300-meter spatial resolution were used. Atmospheric forcing on the Sea of Azov plume was investigated with the data of 6-hour reanalysis of winds (MERRA and NCAR/NCEP) with spatial resolution at 1/2 degrees in latitude and 2/3 degrees in longitude. Based on satellite images and wind reanalysis data for 2002-2012 period, it was established that the Azov Sea water inflow is favored by strong N and NE winds, which prevail in the region. It is evident in the processed satellite data that the Sea of Azov plume mainly extends along the east coast of the Crimean peninsula. In some cases under sufficiently strong winds, the Azov waters spread to the southern coast of the Crimea, and sometimes even to its south-west extremity. Factors influencing the propagation of the Azov Sea plume include intensity of water exchange between the Azov and the Black seas, the Rim Current, mesoscale eddies and other dynamic processes. However, the study demonstrated that the influence of wind forcing is dominant. Empirical regressions are derived expressing the dependence of the Azov plume area and its orientation on the magnitude and directions of the wind stress. Satellite-derived statistics of the Azov plume in the Black Sea characteristics are obtained.

Coherent Doppler Lidar for Boundary Layer Studies and Wind Energy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choukulkar, Aditya

This thesis outlines the development of a vector retrieval technique, based on data assimilation, for a coherent Doppler LIDAR (Light Detection and Ranging). A detailed analysis of the Optimal Interpolation (OI) technique for vector retrieval is presented. Through several modifications to the OI technique, it is shown that the modified technique results in significant improvement in velocity retrieval accuracy. These modifications include changes to innovation covariance portioning, covariance binning, and analysis increment calculation. It is observed that the modified technique is able to make retrievals with better accuracy, preserves local information better, and compares well with tower measurements. In order to study the error of representativeness and vector retrieval error, a lidar simulator was constructed. Using the lidar simulator a thorough sensitivity analysis of the lidar measurement process and vector retrieval is carried out. The error of representativeness as a function of scales of motion and sensitivity of vector retrieval to look angle is quantified. Using the modified OI technique, study of nocturnal flow in Owens' Valley, CA was carried out to identify and understand uncharacteristic events on the night of March 27th 2006. Observations from 1030 UTC to 1230 UTC (0230 hr local time to 0430 hr local time) on March 27 2006 are presented. Lidar observations show complex and uncharacteristic flows such as sudden bursts of westerly cross-valley wind mixing with the dominant up-valley wind. Model results from Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS RTM) and other in-situ instrumentations are used to corroborate and complement these observations. The modified OI technique is used to identify uncharacteristic and extreme flow events at a wind development site. Estimates of turbulence and shear from this technique are compared to tower measurements. A formulation for equivalent wind speed in the presence of variations in wind speed and direction, combined with shear is developed and used to determine wind energy content in presence of turbulence.

Assessing the Impacts of Reduced Noise Operations of Wind Turbines on Neighbor Annoyance: A Preliminary Analysis in Vinalhaven, Maine

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hoen, Ben; Wiser, Ryan; Eckholdt, Haftan

2010-06-23

Neighbors living near the 3 turbine, 4.5 MW Vinalhaven, Maine wind power facility, which began operations in late 2009, have complained that the noise from the turbines is unwelcome and annoying. Fox Islands Wind, the owner of the facility, hypothesized that implementing a Noise Reduced Operation (NRO) for the turbines, which effectively limits the turbines maximum rpm and power output, would reduce the sound levels produced by the turbines, and therefore might also reduce the degree to which the neighbors report being annoyed by those sounds. To test this hypothesis in a preliminary fashion, a pilot study was conducted inmore » early 2010, the results of which are the subject of this brief report. The study included asking near-by residents - those within roughly 3000 feet - to rate the sounds and the degree to which they were annoyed by them using logs which they filled out at multiple times during the day on as many days as were possible in the 35 day study period in February and March, 2010. Meanwhile, FIW adjusted the NRO settings of the turbines in a random fashion in the evenings during the same period, but in a pattern that the respondents were not made aware of. Ultimately, nine individuals turned in roughly 200 log entries (i.e., responses), each of which was time coded to allow testing if the response was correlated with the wind facility operating conditions at that time. The analysis of these data found small, non-statistically-significant differences in self-reported turbine loudness and annoyance ratings between the periods when the NRO was enacted and when it was not, after controlling for many of the relationships that could independently influence perceived loudness and annoyance (e.g., wind direction, time of day). Possible explanations for these small differences in self-reported turbine loudness and annoyance ratings include: the relative difference in sound output from the turbines when NRO was engaged and when it was not was small; and/or that differences in turbine sound outputs that did exist might have been masked by higher (non-turbine) wind sound levels that were coincident with NRO periods. Because this preliminary test only included a small portion of the population surrounding the turbines, the sample of self-reported ratings was itself very small. In addition, the conditions varied greatly over the study period, as described in the report that follows. Consequently, the results presented here should be considered preliminary, and further data collection and analysis are warranted. The main findings of this preliminary study are: (1) As planned, periods in which the NRO was engaged were found to have noticeably lower turbine rotational speeds (rpm), based on turbine operational data. (2) 11% of responses overall indicated that the turbines were perceived as either 'very' or 'extremely' loud at the time they were logged, and roughly two thirds of those (7% overall) indicated the sounds to be 'very' or 'extremely' annoying. (3) Self-reported turbine loudness and annoyance ratings were higher during the night and when the wind was from the North (participants in the study were located to the east and south of the turbines). (4) Self-reported turbine loudness and annoyance ratings were generally found to be lower during the NRO periods, but these observed differences are relatively small in magnitude, and are not statistically significant. (5) There is some limited evidence that high-speed surface winds mask self-reported turbine loudness and annoyance ratings. Therefore, because NRO settings are only engaged during periods of high winds, the true effects of the NRO adjustments might be diluted to some degree. (6) The results of this preliminary assessment should not be applied to the full population of homeowners near the turbines in Vinalhaven, Maine because the potentially most-sensitive individuals (those most vocal of their dislike of the turbine sounds) opted not to participate in the study, and because the study did not include the relatively large number of individuals who primarily visit the island during the summer months.« less

An X-ray excited wind in Centaurus X-3

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Day, C. S. R.; Stevens, Ian R.

1993-01-01

We propose a new interpretation of the behavior of the notable X-ray binary source Centaurus X-3. Based on both theoretical and observational arguments (using EXOSAT data), we suggest that an X-ray excited wind emanating from the O star is present in this system. Further, we suggest that this wind is responsible for the mass transfer in the system rather than Roche-lobe overflow or a normal radiatively driven stellar wind. We show that the ionization conditions in Cen X-3 are too extreme to permit a normal radiatively driven wind to emanate from portions of the stellar surface facing toward the neutron star. In addition, the flux of X-rays from the neutron star is strong enough to drive a thermal wind from the O star with sufficient mass-flux to power the X-ray source. We find that this model can reasonably account for the long duration of the eclipse transitions and other observed features of Cen X-3. If confirmed, this will be the first example of an X-ray excited wind in a massive binary. We also discuss the relationship between the excited wind in Cen X-3 to the situation in eclipsing millisecond pulsars, where an excited wind is also believed to be present.

Analysis of Precipitation (Rain and Snow) Levels and Straight-line Wind Speeds in Support of the 10-year Natural Phenomena Hazards Review for Los Alamos National Laboratory

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kelly, Elizabeth J.; Dewart, Jean Marie; Deola, Regina

This report provides site-specific return level analyses for rain, snow, and straight-line wind extreme events. These analyses are in support of the 10-year review plan for the assessment of meteorological natural phenomena hazards at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). These analyses follow guidance from Department of Energy, DOE Standard, Natural Phenomena Hazards Analysis and Design Criteria for DOE Facilities (DOE-STD-1020-2012), Nuclear Regulatory Commission Standard Review Plan (NUREG-0800, 2007) and ANSI/ ANS-2.3-2011, Estimating Tornado, Hurricane, and Extreme Straight-Line Wind Characteristics at Nuclear Facility Sites. LANL precipitation and snow level data have been collected since 1910, although not all years are complete.more » In this report the results from the more recent data (1990–2014) are compared to those of past analyses and a 2004 National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration report. Given the many differences in the data sets used in these different analyses, the lack of statistically significant differences in return level estimates increases confidence in the data and in the modeling and analysis approach.« less

Coronal Hole Facing Earth

NASA Image and Video Library

2018-05-15

An extensive equatorial coronal hole has rotated so that it is now facing Earth (May 2-4, 2018). The dark coronal hole extends about halfway across the solar disk. It was observed in a wavelength of extreme ultraviolet light. This magnetically open area is streaming solar wind (i.e., a stream of charged particles released from the sun) into space. When Earth enters a solar wind stream and the stream interacts with our magnetosphere, we often experience nice displays of aurora. https://photojournal.jpl.nasa.gov/catalog/PIA00577

Observations of Hall Reconnection Physics Far Downstream of the X Line.

PubMed

Mistry, R; Eastwood, J P; Haggerty, C C; Shay, M A; Phan, T D; Hietala, H; Cassak, P A

2016-10-28

Observations made using the Wind spacecraft of Hall magnetic fields in solar wind reconnection exhausts are presented. These observations are consistent with the generation of Hall fields by a narrow ion inertial scale current layer near the separatrix, which is confirmed with an appropriately scaled particle-in-cell simulation that shows excellent agreement with observations. The Hall fields are observed thousands of ion inertial lengths downstream from the reconnection X line, indicating that narrow regions of kinetic dynamics can persist extremely far downstream.

Training a Green Workforce With Stem Initiatives at the Alamo Colleges District

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reyes, R.; Strybos, J.

2017-12-01

The Alamo Colleges District (ACD) includes minority serving institutions successfully incorporating climate science and sustainability-related projects to engage students in STEM courses. This network of five community colleges is based around San Antonio, Texas, and has a student population of approximately 60,000 that reflects the diversity of the community. San Antonio residents are familiar with recent extreme weather conditions, such as extreme droughts and intensified annual rainfalls, and the colleges understand the importance of education about climate science, climate change and sustainable solutions. This presentation will discuss initiatives to engage students in STEMS program while providing them with tools to solve climate change problems at a local level. ACD's innovative tools to train a green workforce is focused on engaging students in courses provided toward accredited certificates and degrees. Example of these courses include Wind Power Generation, Wind Turbine Troubleshooting, Solar Photovoltaics Systems, Wastewater Minimization and Waste Water Treatment. Students have access to a 400-kW PV system installed at the Center for Excellence that is used as a training tool in solar panel installation and maintenance. Also, solar panels on the rooftop of the Scobee Education Center and adjacent bus stops are connected to an eGauge system and used as simulation training about energy and space science. At Eco Centro, students have worked on solar hydroponic projects, the refurbishment of a shipping container for food production in a controlled atmosphere, and the installation of a shipping container home that will be used as a teaching facility about sustainable design and construction. Finally, a recent project to convert an old trailer into a Mobile Weather Station will be used as a STEM classroom to prepare students to understand weather data and its local applicability.

Modeling and control design of a wind tunnel model support

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Howe, David A.

1990-01-01

The 12-Foot Pressure Wind Tunnel at Ames Research Center is being restored. A major part of the restoration is the complete redesign of the aircraft model supports and their associated control systems. An accurate trajectory control servo system capable of positioning a model (with no measurable overshoot) is needed. Extremely small errors in scaled-model pitch angle can increase airline fuel costs for the final aircraft configuration by millions of dollars. In order to make a mechanism sufficiently accurate in pitch, a detailed structural and control-system model must be created and then simulated on a digital computer. The model must contain linear representations of the mechanical system, including masses, springs, and damping in order to determine system modes. Electrical components, both analog and digital, linear and nonlinear must also be simulated. The model of the entire closed-loop system must then be tuned to control the modes of the flexible model-support structure. The development of a system model, the control modal analysis, and the control-system design are discussed.

Brief Communication: Synoptic-scale differences between Sundowner and Santa Ana wind regimes in the Santa Ynez Mountains, California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hatchett, Benjamin J.; Smith, Craig M.; Nauslar, Nicholas J.; Kaplan, Michael L.

2018-02-01

Downslope Sundowner winds in southern California's Santa Ynez Mountains favor wildfire growth. To explore differences between Sundowners and Santa Ana winds (SAWs), we use surface observations from 1979 to 2014 to develop a climatology of extreme Sundowner days. The climatology was compared to an existing SAW index from 1979 to 2012. Sundowner (SAW) occurrence peaks in late spring (winter). SAWs demonstrate amplified 500 hPa geopotential heights over western North America and anomalous positive inland mean sea-level pressures. Sundowner-only conditions display zonal 500 hPa flow and negative inland sea-level pressure anomalies. A low-level northerly coastal jet is present during Sundowners but not SAWs.

Base connections for signal/sign structures : [summary].

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2012-01-01

During six weeks in 2004, four major hurricanes struck Florida, and extreme wind-loading caused several large cantilever sign structures on the Interstate to fail. The Florida Department of Transportation (FDOT) began a research program to address th...

Predictability of extreme weather events for NE U.S.: improvement of the numerical prediction using a Bayesian regression approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, J.; Astitha, M.; Anagnostou, E. N.; Hartman, B.; Kallos, G. B.

2015-12-01

Weather prediction accuracy has become very important for the Northeast U.S. given the devastating effects of extreme weather events in the recent years. Weather forecasting systems are used towards building strategies to prevent catastrophic losses for human lives and the environment. Concurrently, weather forecast tools and techniques have evolved with improved forecast skill as numerical prediction techniques are strengthened by increased super-computing resources. In this study, we examine the combination of two state-of-the-science atmospheric models (WRF and RAMS/ICLAMS) by utilizing a Bayesian regression approach to improve the prediction of extreme weather events for NE U.S. The basic concept behind the Bayesian regression approach is to take advantage of the strengths of two atmospheric modeling systems and, similar to the multi-model ensemble approach, limit their weaknesses which are related to systematic and random errors in the numerical prediction of physical processes. The first part of this study is focused on retrospective simulations of seventeen storms that affected the region in the period 2004-2013. Optimal variances are estimated by minimizing the root mean square error and are applied to out-of-sample weather events. The applicability and usefulness of this approach are demonstrated by conducting an error analysis based on in-situ observations from meteorological stations of the National Weather Service (NWS) for wind speed and wind direction, and NCEP Stage IV radar data, mosaicked from the regional multi-sensor for precipitation. The preliminary results indicate a significant improvement in the statistical metrics of the modeled-observed pairs for meteorological variables using various combinations of the sixteen events as predictors of the seventeenth. This presentation will illustrate the implemented methodology and the obtained results for wind speed, wind direction and precipitation, as well as set the research steps that will be followed in the future.

An Extreme Hailstorm on 27 July 2017 in Istanbul, Turkey: Synoptic Scale Circulation and Thermodynamic Evaluation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baltaci, Hakki; Akkoyunlu, Bulent Oktay; Tayanc, Mete

2018-03-01

During the afternoon hours of July 27, 2017, an extreme hailstorm struck the most populated city of Turkey, Istanbul. This rapidly growing supercell which produces large hail led to numerous injuries and damaged automobiles, houses, aircrafts, crops, and infrastructure of the city. As a result of the movement of the cut-off cyclone from Middle East to western Turkey, warm air advection penetrated over Marmara, and the land surface temperature of Istanbul reached 34 °C (5 °C above the mean). The transport of significant amount of moisture, which was caused by excessive heating of Marmara Sea surface temperatures (24.9 °C), to the low levels of the atmosphere by strong southwesterly winds enabled the increase of low-level moisture convergence. Both abnormal temperature differences between land and 500-hPa level (41.5 °C) and excessive wind shear values (20.3 m/s) between surface and 6 km above ground level (AGL) increased the thermal instability and updraft conditions of the baroclinic atmosphere. This condition resulted in thunderstorms, stormy and gale wind gusts (31.9 m/s 15:20 UTC), extreme lightning activity (totally 2696 cloud-to-ground and 5791 intracloud), large hailstones between 3-6 cm diameter and high hourly precipitation amounts (38.7, 36.2, 29.8, and 27.2 mm in Sisli, Kadikoy, Uskudar, and Fatih regions, respectively, between 14:00 and 15:00 UTC) in the urban settlements of the city. The stability indices, Showalter, K, Total of totals, SWEAT, and CAPE also showed the high probability of severe thunderstorm occurrence over Istanbul. Based on a comparison among these five indices, the SWEAT index is most appropriate to represent the atmospheric conditions over the city owing to low-level moisture, warm air advection, and low and mid-level wind speed terms in its equation.

Dual coil ignition system

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Huberts, Garlan J.; Qu, Qiuping; Czekala, Michael Damian

2017-03-28

A dual coil ignition system is provided. The dual coil ignition system includes a first inductive ignition coil including a first primary winding and a first secondary winding, and a second inductive ignition coil including a second primary winding and a second secondary winding, the second secondary winding connected in series to the first secondary winding. The dual coil ignition system further includes a diode network including a first diode and a second diode connected between the first secondary winding and the second secondary winding.

Ocean-atmosphere dynamics during Hurricane Ida and Nor'Ida: An application of the coupled ocean-;atmosphere–wave–sediment transport (COAWST) modeling system

USGS Publications Warehouse

Olabarrieta, Maitane; Warner, John C.; Armstrong, Brandy N.; Zambon, Joseph B.; He, Ruoying

2012-01-01

The coupled ocean–atmosphere–wave–sediment transport (COAWST) modeling system was used to investigate atmosphere–ocean–wave interactions in November 2009 during Hurricane Ida and its subsequent evolution to Nor'Ida, which was one of the most costly storm systems of the past two decades. One interesting aspect of this event is that it included two unique atmospheric extreme conditions, a hurricane and a nor'easter storm, which developed in regions with different oceanographic characteristics. Our modeled results were compared with several data sources, including GOES satellite infrared data, JASON-1 and JASON-2 altimeter data, CODAR measurements, and wave and tidal information from the National Data Buoy Center (NDBC) and the National Tidal Database. By performing a series of numerical runs, we were able to isolate the effect of the interaction terms between the atmosphere (modeled with Weather Research and Forecasting, the WRF model), the ocean (modeled with Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS)), and the wave propagation and generation model (modeled with Simulating Waves Nearshore (SWAN)). Special attention was given to the role of the ocean surface roughness. Three different ocean roughness closure models were analyzed: DGHQ (which is based on wave age), TY2001 (which is based on wave steepness), and OOST (which considers both the effects of wave age and steepness). Including the ocean roughness in the atmospheric module improved the wind intensity estimation and therefore also the wind waves, surface currents, and storm surge amplitude. For example, during the passage of Hurricane Ida through the Gulf of Mexico, the wind speeds were reduced due to wave-induced ocean roughness, resulting in better agreement with the measured winds. During Nor'Ida, including the wave-induced surface roughness changed the form and dimension of the main low pressure cell, affecting the intensity and direction of the winds. The combined wave age- and wave steepness-based parameterization (OOST) provided the best results for wind and wave growth prediction. However, the best agreement between the measured (CODAR) and computed surface currents and storm surge values was obtained with the wave steepness-based roughness parameterization (TY2001), although the differences obtained with respect to DGHQ were not significant. The influence of sea surface temperature (SST) fields on the atmospheric boundary layer dynamics was examined; in particular, we evaluated how the SST affects wind wave generation, surface currents and storm surges. The integrated hydrograph and integrated wave height, parameters that are highly correlated with the storm damage potential, were found to be highly sensitive to the ocean surface roughness parameterization.

Ocean-atmosphere dynamics during Hurricane Ida and Nor'Ida: An application of the coupled ocean-atmosphere-wave-sediment transport (COAWST) modeling system

USGS Publications Warehouse

Olabarrieta, Maitane; Warner, John C.; Armstrong, Brandy N.; Zambon, Joseph B.; He, Ruoying

2012-01-01

The coupled ocean–atmosphere–wave–sediment transport (COAWST) modeling system was used to investigate atmosphere–ocean–wave interactions in November 2009 during Hurricane Ida and its subsequent evolution to Nor’Ida, which was one of the most costly storm systems of the past two decades. One interesting aspect of this event is that it included two unique atmospheric extreme conditions, a hurricane and a nor’easter storm, which developed in regions with different oceanographic characteristics. Our modeled results were compared with several data sources, including GOES satellite infrared data, JASON-1 and JASON-2 altimeter data, CODAR measurements, and wave and tidal information from the National Data Buoy Center (NDBC) and the National Tidal Database. By performing a series of numerical runs, we were able to isolate the effect of the interaction terms between the atmosphere (modeled with Weather Research and Forecasting, the WRF model), the ocean (modeled with Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS)), and the wave propagation and generation model (modeled with Simulating Waves Nearshore (SWAN)). Special attention was given to the role of the ocean surface roughness. Three different ocean roughness closure models were analyzed: DGHQ (which is based on wave age), TY2001 (which is based on wave steepness), and OOST (which considers both the effects of wave age and steepness). Including the ocean roughness in the atmospheric module improved the wind intensity estimation and therefore also the wind waves, surface currents, and storm surge amplitude. For example, during the passage of Hurricane Ida through the Gulf of Mexico, the wind speeds were reduced due to wave-induced ocean roughness, resulting in better agreement with the measured winds. During Nor’Ida, including the wave-induced surface roughness changed the form and dimension of the main low pressure cell, affecting the intensity and direction of the winds. The combined wave age- and wave steepness-based parameterization (OOST) provided the best results for wind and wave growth prediction. However, the best agreement between the measured (CODAR) and computed surface currents and storm surge values was obtained with the wave steepness-based roughness parameterization (TY2001), although the differences obtained with respect to DGHQ were not significant. The influence of sea surface temperature (SST) fields on the atmospheric boundary layer dynamics was examined; in particular, we evaluated how the SST affects wind wave generation, surface currents and storm surges. The integrated hydrograph and integrated wave height, parameters that are highly correlated with the storm damage potential, were found to be highly sensitive to the ocean surface roughness parameterization.

Comparative Analyses of Two Extremely Fast CMEs Induced Shocks using A H3DMHD Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, S. T.; Wu, C. C.; Liou, K.; Dryer, Ph D., M.; Plunkett, S. P.

2015-12-01

During the last two decades, spacecraft recorded several extremely fast Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) which have resulted in severe geomagnetic storms. Here, we will report results from a comparative study of two extremely fast CME events: one on 29 October 2003 (Halloween 2003 epoch) and the other on 23 July 2012. Both shock events reached 1 AU within ~20 hours. We employed a global three-dimensional (3D) magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) simulation model (H3DMHD, Wu et al. 2007, JGR) to study these two events and compared the results with observations (e.g., 1 AU in-situ data, and coronal images from SOHO/LASCO or STEREO/ SECCHI). It was found that: (i) The peak temperature, velocity, and density of the solar wind for the shock/ICME event are 2 x 107 K, 2500 km s-1, and 35 cm-3, respectively. (ii) The peaks of magnetic field (B) are ~60 and 110 nT for the event on 29 October 2003 and 23 July 2012, respectively. Solar wind densities behind the shocks are extremely low which are due to rarefaction of the interplanetary shocks' propagation. We will discuss this issue in the presentation. Simulations are vastly improved and forecasting arrival times should be done as noted in real time by Zhou and Dryer (Space Weather Quarterly, 2014) review, but CME and B therein is still a major challenge for storm prediction.

Research Needs for Wind Resource Characterization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schreck, S. J.; Lundquist, J. K.; Shaw, W. J.

2008-12-01

Currently, wind energy provides about 1 percent of U.S. electricity generation. A recent analysis by DOE, NREL, and AWEA showed the feasibility of expanding U.S. wind energy capacity to 20 percent, comprising approximately 300 gigawatts. Though not a prediction of the future, this represents a plausible scenario for U.S. wind energy. To exploit these opportunities, a workshop on Research Needs for Wind Resource Characterization was held during January 2008. This event was organized on behalf of two DOE organizations; the Office of Biological and Environmental Research and the Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy. Over 120 atmospheric science and wind energy researchers attended the workshop from industry, academia, and federal laboratories in North America and Europe. Attendees identified problems that could impede achieving the 20 percent wind scenario and formulated research recommendations to attack these problems. Findings were structured into four focus areas: 1) Turbine Dynamics, 2) Micrositing and Array Effects, 3) Mesoscale Processes, and 4) Climate Effects. In the Turbine Dynamics area, detailed characterizations of inflows and turbine flow fields were deemed crucial to attaining accuracy levels in aerodynamics loads required for future designs. To address the complexities inherent in this area, an incremental approach involving hierarchical computational modeling and detailed measurements was recommended. Also recommended was work to model extreme and anomalous atmospheric inflow events and aerostructural responses of turbines to these events. The Micrositing and Array Effects area considered improved wake models important for large, multiple row wind plants. Planetary boundary layer research was deemed necessary to accurately determine inflow characteristics in the presence of atmospheric stability effects and complex surface characteristics. Finally, a need was identified to acquire and exploit large wind inflow data sets, covering heights to 200 meters and encompassing spatial and temporal resolution ranges unique to wind energy. The Mesoscale Processes area deemed improved understanding of mesoscale and local flows crucial to providing enhanced model outputs for wind energy production forecasts and wind plant siting. Modeling approaches need to be developed to resolve spatial scales in the 100 to 1000 meter range, a notable gap in current capabilities. Validation of these models will require new instruments and observational strategies, including augmented analyses of existing measurements. In the Climate Effects area, research was recommended to understand historical trends in wind resource variability. This was considered a prerequisite for improved predictions of future wind climate and resources, which would enable reliable wind resource estimation for future planning. Participants also considered it important to characterize interactions between wind plants and climates through modeling and observations that suitably emphasize atmospheric boundary layer dynamics. High-penetration wind energy deployment represents a crucial and attainable U.S. strategic objective. Achieving the 20 percent wind scenario will require an unprecedented ability for characterizing large wind turbines arrayed in gigawatt wind plants and extracting elevated energy levels from the atmosphere. DOE national laboratories, with industry and academia, represents a formidable capability for attaining these objectives.

Comparing model-based predictions of a wind turbine wake to LiDAR measurements in complex terrain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kay, Andrew; Jones, Paddy; Boyce, Dean; Bowman, Neil

2013-04-01

The application of remote sensing techniques to the measurement of wind characteristics offers great potential to accurately predict the atmospheric boundary layer flow (ABL) and its interactions with wind turbines. An understanding of these interactions is important for optimizing turbine siting in wind farms and improving the power performance and lifetime of individual machines. In particular, Doppler wind Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) can be used to remotely measure the wind characteristics (speed, direction and turbulence intensity) approaching a rotor. This information can be utilised to improve turbine lifetime (advanced detection of incoming wind shear, wind veer and extreme wind conditions, such as gusts) and optimise power production (improved yaw, pitch and speed control). LiDAR can also make detailed measurements of the disturbed wind profile in the wake, which can damage surrounding turbines and reduce efficiency. These observational techniques can help engineers better understand and model wakes to optimize turbine spacing in large wind farms, improving efficiency and reducing the cost of energy. NEL is currently undertaking research to measure the disturbed wind profile in the wake of a 950 kW wind turbine using a ZephIR Dual Mode LiDAR at its Myres Hill wind turbine test site located near Glasgow, Scotland. Myres Hill is moderately complex terrain comprising deep peat, low lying grass and heathers, localised slopes and nearby forest, approximately 2 km away. Measurements have been obtained by vertically scanning at 10 recorded heights across and above the rotor plane to determine the wind speed, wind direction and turbulence intensity profiles. Measurement stations located at various rotor diameters downstream of the turbine were selected in an attempt to capture the development of the wake and its recovery towards free stream conditions. Results of the measurement campaign will also highlight how the wake behaves as a result of sudden gusts or rapid changes in wind direction. NEL has carried out simulations to model the wake of the turbine using Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) software provided by ANSYS Inc. The model incorporates a simple actuator disk concept to model the turbine and its wake, typical of that used in many commercial wind farm optimization tools. The surrounding terrain, including the forestry is modelled allowing an investigation of the wake-terrain interactions occurring across the site. The overall aim is to compare the LiDAR measurements with simulated data to assess the quality of the model and its sensitivity to variables such as mesh size and turbulence/forestry modelling techniques. Knowledge acquired from the study will help to define techniques for combining LiDAR measurements with CFD modelling to improve predictions of wake losses in large wind farms and hence, energy production. In addition, the impact of transient wind conditions on the results of predictions based on idealised, steady state models has been examined.

Extreme Events and Energy Providers: Science and Innovation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yiou, P.; Vautard, R.

2012-04-01

Most socio-economic regulations related to the resilience to climate extremes, from infrastructure or network design to insurance premiums, are based on a present-day climate with an assumption of stationarity. Climate extremes (heat waves, cold spells, droughts, storms and wind stilling) affect in particular energy production, supply, demand and security in several ways. While national, European or international projects have generated vast amounts of climate projections for the 21st century, their practical use in long-term planning remains limited. Estimating probabilistic diagnostics of energy user relevant variables from those multi-model projections will help the energy sector to elaborate medium to long-term plans, and will allow the assessment of climate risks associated to those plans. The project "Extreme Events for Energy Providers" (E3P) aims at filling a gap between climate science and its practical use in the energy sector and creating in turn favourable conditions for new business opportunities. The value chain ranges from addressing research questions directly related to energy-significant climate extremes to providing innovative tools of information and decision making (including methodologies, best practices and software) and climate science training for the energy sector, with a focus on extreme events. Those tools will integrate the scientific knowledge that is developed by scientific communities, and translate it into a usable probabilistic framework. The project will deliver projection tools assessing the probabilities of future energy-relevant climate extremes at a range of spatial scales varying from pan-European to local scales. The E3P project is funded by the Knowledge and Innovation Community (KIC Climate). We will present the mechanisms of interactions between academic partners, SMEs and industrial partners for this project. Those mechanisms are elementary bricks of a climate service.

16-year Climatology of Cold-Season Extreme Precipitation-Drought Statistics derived from NLDAS Precipitation Data Over the Conterminous U.S.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matsui, T.; Mocko, D. M.

2015-12-01

We examine radar-gauge merged 1/8-degree hourly precipitation data from the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) Phase-II datasets from 1997 to 2013. For each 1/8 grid, we derived statistics of single-event storm duration, total accumulated precipitation, and dry period between each storm events during cold (Oct-Mar) seasons, and histogram of event-by-event statistics are used to estimate the thresholds for extreme (below-1%) and very extreme (below-0.1%) events. In this way, we constructed unique climatology maps of the extreme precipitation-drought frequencies and probability density functions. This climatology map depicted that cold-season extremely heavy precipitation events are populated over West Coast, Deep South, and coastal zone of North East, suggesting impacts of land-falling maritime storm systems. Simultaneously, datasets depicts that long-extended precipitation events are mostly populated over North West, and lower Mississippi Basin up to North East centered at Appalachian Mountains, resembling east Pacific storm tracks and nor'easter storm tracks, respectively. Furthermore, season-by-season statistics of these extreme events were examined for each National Climate Assessment (NCA) regimes in comparison with a number of major atmospheric oscillations and teleconnection patterns as well as Arctic Amplifications. Index of Arctic Amplification includes variability of 500mb zonal wind speed and pole-to-midlatitude differences in atmospheric thickness, linking to the phase speed of the Rossby wave. Finally, we present ensemble correlations scores, and discuss the physical processes and underlying mechanisms for their key characteristics as well as the predictive skill and predictability of the extreme events from sub-seasonal to interannual scales during cold seasons.

Structural Variability of Tropospheric Growth Factors Transforming Mid-latitude Cyclones to Severe Storms over the North Atlantic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wild, Simon; Befort, Daniel J.; Leckebusch, Gregor C.

2015-04-01

The development of European surface wind storms out of normal mid-latitude cyclones is substantially influenced by upstream tropospheric growth factors over the Northern Atlantic. The main factors include divergence and vorticity advection in the upper troposphere, latent heat release and the presence of instabilities of short baroclinic waves of suitable wave lengths. In this study we examine a subset of these potential growth factors and their related influences on the transformation of extra-tropical cyclones into severe damage prone surface storm systems. Previous studies have shown links between specific growth factors and surface wind storms related to extreme cyclones. In our study we investigate in further detail spatial and temporal variability patterns of these upstream processes at different vertical levels of the troposphere. The analyses will comprise of the three growth factors baroclinicity, latent heat release and upper tropospheric divergence. Our definition of surface wind storms is based on the Storm Severity Index (SSI) alongside a wind tracking algorithm identifying areas of exceedances of the local 98th percentile of the 10m wind speed. We also make use of a well-established extra-tropical cyclone identification and tracking algorithm. These cyclone tracks form the base for a composite analysis of the aforementioned growth factors using ERA-Interim Reanalysis from 1979 - 2014 for the extended winter season (ONDJFM). Our composite analysis corroborates previous similar studies but extends them by using an impact based algorithm for the identification of strong wind systems. Based on this composite analysis we further identify variability patterns for each growth factor most important for the transformation of a cyclone into a surface wind storm. We thus also address the question whether the link between storm intensity and related growth factor anomaly taking into account its spatial variability is stable and can be quantified. While the robustness of our preliminary results is generally dependent on the growth factor investigated, some examples include i) the overall availability of latent heat seems to be less important than its spatial structure around the cyclone core and ii) the variability of upper-tropospheric baroclinicity appears to be highest north of the surface position of the cyclone, especially for those that transform into a surface storm.

Wind Turbine Load Mitigation based on Multivariable Robust Control and Blade Root Sensors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Díaz de Corcuera, A.; Pujana-Arrese, A.; Ezquerra, J. M.; Segurola, E.; Landaluze, J.

2014-12-01

This paper presents two H∞ multivariable robust controllers based on blade root sensors' information for individual pitch angle control. The wind turbine of 5 MW defined in the Upwind European project is the reference non-linear model used in this research work, which has been modelled in the GH Bladed 4.0 software package. The main objective of these controllers is load mitigation in different components of wind turbines during power production in the above rated control zone. The first proposed multi-input multi-output (MIMO) individual pitch H" controller mitigates the wind effect on the tower side-to-side acceleration and reduces the asymmetrical loads which appear in the rotor due to its misalignment. The second individual pitch H" multivariable controller mitigates the loads on the three blades reducing the wind effect on the bending flapwise and edgewise momentums in the blades. The designed H" controllers have been validated in GH Bladed and an exhaustive analysis has been carried out to calculate fatigue load reduction on wind turbine components, as well as to analyze load mitigation in some extreme cases.

A new candidate for a powerful wind detected in a bright IR-galaxy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Braito, V.; Reeves, J.; Severgnini, P.; Della Ceca, R.; Matzeu, G.; Ballo, L.; Nardini, E.

2017-10-01

We report the discovery of a new candidate for a powerful disk wind, in a nearby and bright starburst-AGN system: MCG-03-58-007. The winds strongly resembles the case of PDS456. MCG-03-58-007 is a relatively X-ray bright Seyfert 2 galaxy for which a deep Suzaku observation unveiled a highly curved spectrum due to a high column density absorber and an extremely steep intrinsic photon index (Gamma = 3). A detailed analysis showed that the steep spectrum is mainly driven by the presence of a deep absorption trough at 7.5-9 keV. This could be accounted for by the presence of a high ionisation, fast (v up to 0.2c) outflowing wind launched from within a few 100Rg from the black hole, whose kinetic output matches the prescription for significant feedback. New deep simultaneous XMM-Newton and NuSTAR observations provided the first direct measurement of the AGN luminosity and more importantly confirms the presence of a powerful X-ray wind. The new observations show rapid spectral variability, whose main driver appears to be the wind itself.

Recent trends in power system reliability and implications for evaluating future investments in resiliency

DOE PAGES

Larsen, Peter H.; LaCommare, Kristina H.; Eto, Joseph H.; ...

2016-10-27

Here, this study examines the relationship between annual changes in electricity reliability reported by a large cross-section of U.S. electricity distribution utilities over a period of 13 years and a broad set of potential explanatory variables, including weather and utility characteristics. We find statistically significant correlations between the average number of power interruptions experienced annually and above average wind speeds, precipitation, lightning strikes, and a measure of population density: customers per line mile. We also find significant relationships between the average number of minutes of power interruptions experienced and above average wind speeds, precipitation, cooling degree-days, and one strategy usedmore » to mitigate the impacts of severe weather: the amount of underground transmission and distribution line miles. Perhaps most importantly, we find a significant time trend of increasing annual average number of minutes of power interruptions over time—especially when interruptions associated with extreme weather are included. Lastly, the research method described in this analysis can provide a basis for future efforts to project long-term trends in reliability and the associated benefits of strategies to improve grid resiliency to severe weather—both in the U.S. and abroad.« less

ULF/ELF Waves in Near-Moon Space

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nakagawa, Tomoko

2016-02-01

The reflection of the solar wind protons is equivalent to a beam injection against the solar wind flow. It is expected to produce a ring beam with a 3D distribution function in many cases. The reflected protons are responsible for the generation of ultra-low-frequency (ULF) waves at ˜0.01 Hz and narrowband waves at ˜1 Hz in the extremely low frequency (ELF) range through resonant interaction with magnetohydrodynamic waves and whistler mode waves in the solar wind, respectively. This chapter discusses these commonly observed waves in the near-Moon space. The sinusoidal waveforms and sharp spectra of the monochromatic ELF waves are impressive, but commonly observed are non-monochromatic waves in the ELF range ˜0.03-10 Hz. Some of the solar wind protons reflected by the dayside lunar surface or crustal magnetic field gyrate around the solar wind magnetic field and can access the center of the wake owing to the large Larmour radius.

Dynamical behavior and Jacobi stability analysis of wound strings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lake, Matthew J.; Harko, Tiberiu

2016-06-01

We numerically solve the equations of motion (EOM) for two models of circular cosmic string loops with windings in a simply connected internal space. Since the windings cannot be topologically stabilized, stability must be achieved (if at all) dynamically. As toy models for realistic compactifications, we consider windings on a small section of mathbb {R}^2, which is valid as an approximation to any simply connected internal manifold if the winding radius is sufficiently small, and windings on an S^2 of constant radius mathcal {R}. We then use Kosambi-Cartan-Chern (KCC) theory to analyze the Jacobi stability of the string equations and determine bounds on the physical parameters that ensure dynamical stability of the windings. We find that, for the same initial conditions, the curvature and topology of the internal space have nontrivial effects on the microscopic behavior of the string in the higher dimensions, but that the macroscopic behavior is remarkably insensitive to the details of the motion in the compact space. This suggests that higher-dimensional signatures may be extremely difficult to detect in the effective (3+1)-dimensional dynamics of strings compactified on an internal space, even if configurations with nontrivial windings persist over long time periods.

Magnetosphere on May 11, 1999, the day the solar wind almost disappeared: II. Magnetic pulsations in space and on the ground

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Le, G.; Chi, P. J.; Goedecke, W.; Russell, C. T.; Szabo, A.; Petrinec, S. M.; Angelopoulos, V.; Reeves, G. D.; Chun, F. K.

2000-08-01

Simultaneous observations by Wind and IMP-8 in the upstream region on May 11, 1999, when the solar wind density was well below its usual values and the IMF was generally weakly northward, indicate there were upstream waves present in the foreshock, but wave power was an order of magnitude weaker than usual due to an extremely weak bow shock and tenuous solar wind plasma. Magnetic pulsations in the magnetosphere have been observed in the magnetic field data from Polar and at mid-latitude ground stations. By comparing May 11 with a control day under normal solar wind conditions and with a similar foreshock geometry, we find that the magnetosphere was much quieter than usual. The Pc 3-4 waves were nearly absent in the dayside magnetosphere both at Polar and as seen at mid-latitude ground stations even through the foreshock geometry was favorable for the generation of these waves. Since the solar wind speed was not unusual on this day, these observations suggest that it is the Mach number of the solar wind flow relative to the magnetosphere that controls the amplitude of Pc 3-4 waves in the magnetosphere.

Extreme geomagnetically induced currents

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kataoka, Ryuho; Ngwira, Chigomezyo

2016-12-01

We propose an emergency alert framework for geomagnetically induced currents (GICs), based on the empirically extreme values and theoretical upper limits of the solar wind parameters and of d B/d t, the time derivative of magnetic field variations at ground. We expect this framework to be useful for preparing against extreme events. Our analysis is based on a review of various papers, including those presented during Extreme Space Weather Workshops held in Japan in 2011, 2012, 2013, and 2014. Large-amplitude d B/d t values are the major cause of hazards associated with three different types of GICs: (1) slow d B/d t with ring current evolution (RC-type), (2) fast d B/d t associated with auroral electrojet activity (AE-type), and (3) transient d B/d t of sudden commencements (SC-type). We set "caution," "warning," and "emergency" alert levels during the main phase of superstorms with the peak Dst index of less than -300 nT (once per 10 years), -600 nT (once per 60 years), or -900 nT (once per 100 years), respectively. The extreme d B/d t values of the AE-type GICs are 2000, 4000, and 6000 nT/min at caution, warning, and emergency levels, respectively. For the SC-type GICs, a "transient alert" is also proposed for d B/d t values of 40 nT/s at low latitudes and 110 nT/s at high latitudes, especially when the solar energetic particle flux is unusually high.

Changes in Large-Scale Atmospheric Circulation Associated with Increased Extreme Precipitation Events in the Northeast United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Collow, A.; Bosilovich, M. G.; Koster, R. D.

2016-12-01

Over the past two decades a statistically significant increase in the frequency of summertime extreme precipitation events has been observed over the northeastern United States - the largest such increase in the US in terms of area and magnitude. In an effort to characterize synoptic scale patterns and changes to the atmospheric circulation associated with extreme precipitation events in this region, atmospheric fields from the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2) are composited on days that exceed the 90th percentile of precipitation from the CPC-Unified daily gauge-based precipitation observations. Changes over time in composites of sea level pressure, 500 hPa height, and the vertical profile of equivalent potential temperature indicate that the observed increase in extreme precipitation events is associated with extratropical cyclones, including cut off low pressure and frontal systems. Analysis of the Eady maximum growth rate, an indicator for storm tracks, shows that storms tracks in recent years have shifted southward. In addition, mean summertime transient meridional winds have decreased over time, slowing baroclinic systems and causing stationary systems to become more frequent, in agreement with previous studies examining blocking due to high pressure systems. The Atlantic Ocean provides a significant supply of moisture that converges over the region when a cyclonic circulation is situated to the south, and the statistically significant increase in Eady maximum growth rate over time there provides an increasingly improved thermodynamic environment for extreme precipitation events.

What caused the Extreme Storm Season over the North Atlantic and the UK in Winter 2013-14?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leckebusch, G. C.; Wild, S.; Befort, D. J.

2015-12-01

In winter 2013-2014, the UK experienced exceptional stormy and rainy weather conditions. Concurrently, surface temperatures over large parts of central North America fell to near record minimum values. One potential driver for these cold conditions is discussed to be the increasingly warm surface waters of the tropical west Pacific. It has been suggested these increasing sea surface temperatures could also be the cause for extreme weather over the British Isles. Testing this hypothesis, we investigate mechanisms linking the tropical west Pacific and European wind storm activity. We focus on two research questions. Firstly: Was a chain of anomaly patterns with origin in the west Pacific present in the winter 2013-14? And secondly: Can centres of action along such a chain be identified with a strong interannual relationship in the recent past? Our results, using primarily ERA-Interim Reanalysis from 1979 to 2014, show an absolute maximum of wind storm frequency over the northeast Atlantic and the British Isles in winter 2013-14. We also find absolute minimum surface temperatures in central North America and increased convective activity over the tropical west Pacific in the same season. The winter 2013-14 was additionally characterized by anomalous warm sea surface temperatures over the subtropical northwest Atlantic. Although the interannual variability of wind storms in the northeast Atlantic and surface temperatures in North America are significantly anti-correlated, we cannot directly relate wind storm frequency with tropical west Pacific anomalies. We thus conclude that the conditions over the Pacific in winter 2013-14 were favourable but not sufficient to explain the record number of wind storms in this season. Instead, we suggest that warm north Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies in combination with cold surface temperatures over North America played a more important role for generating higher wind storm counts over the northeast Atlantic and the UK.

Inland and coastal flooding: developments in prediction and prevention.

PubMed

Hunt, J C R

2005-06-15

We review the scientific and engineering understanding of various types of inland and coastal flooding by considering the different causes and dynamic processes involved, especially in extreme events. Clear progress has been made in the accuracy of numerical modelling of meteorological causes of floods, hydraulics of flood water movement and coastal wind-wave-surge. Probabilistic estimates from ensemble predictions and the simultaneous use of several models are recent techniques in meteorological prediction that could be considered for hydraulic and oceanographic modelling. The contribution of remotely sensed data from aircraft and satellites is also considered. The need to compare and combine statistical and computational modelling methodologies for long range forecasts and extreme events is emphasized, because this has become possible with the aid of kilometre scale computations and network grid facilities to simulate and analyse time-series and extreme events. It is noted that despite the adverse effects of climatic trends on flooding, appropriate planning of rapidly growing urban areas could mitigate some of the worst effects. However, resources for flood prevention, including research, have to be considered in relation to those for other natural disasters. Policies have to be relevant to the differing geology, meteorology and cultures of the countries affected.

Anomalously low C6+/C5+ ratio in solar wind: ACE/SWICS observation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, L.; Landi, E.; Kocher, M.; Lepri, S. T.; Fisk, L. A.; Zurbuchen, T. H.

2016-03-01

The Carbon and Oxygen ionization states in the solar wind plasma freeze-in within 2 solar radii (Rs) from the solar surface, and then they do not change as they propagate with the solar wind into the heliosphere. Therefore, the O7+/O6+ and C6+/C5+ charge state ratios measured in situ maintain a record of the thermal properties (electron temperature and density) of the inner corona where the solar wind originates. Since these two ratios freeze-in at very similar height, they are expected to be correlated. However, an investigation of the correlation between these two ratios as measured by ACE/SWICS instrument from 1998 to 201l shows that there is a subset of "Outliers" departing from the expected correlation. We find about 49.4% of these Outliers is related to the Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections (ICMEs), while 49.6% of them is slow speed wind (Vp < 500 km/s) and about 1.0% of them is fast solar wind (Vp > 500 km/s). We compare the outlier-slow-speed wind with the normal slow wind (defined as Vp < 500 km/s and O7+/O6+ > 0.2) and find that the reason that causes the Outliers to depart from the correlation is their extremely depleted C6+/C5+ ratio which is decreased by 80% compared to the normal slow wind. We discuss the implication of the Outlier solar wind for the solar wind acceleration mechanism.

Assessment and Optimization of Lidar Measurement Availability for Wind Turbine Control: Preprint

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Davoust, S.; Jehu, A.; Bouillet, M.

2014-05-01

Turbine-mounted lidars provide preview measurements of the incoming wind field. By reducing loads on critical components and increasing the potential power extracted from the wind, the performance of wind turbine controllers can be improved [2]. As a result, integrating a light detection and ranging (lidar) system has the potential to lower the cost of wind energy. This paper presents an evaluation of turbine-mounted lidar availability. Availability is a metric which measures the proportion of time the lidar is producing controller-usable data, and is essential when a wind turbine controller relies on a lidar. To accomplish this, researchers from Avent Lidarmore » Technology and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory first assessed and modeled the effect of extreme atmospheric events. This shows how a multirange lidar delivers measurements for a wide variety of conditions. Second, by using a theoretical approach and conducting an analysis of field feedback, we investigated the effects of the lidar setup on the wind turbine. This helps determine the optimal lidar mounting position at the back of the nacelle, and establishes a relationship between availability, turbine rpm, and lidar sampling time. Lastly, we considered the role of the wind field reconstruction strategies and the turbine controller on the definition and performance of a lidar's measurement availability.« less

Solar wind driven empirical forecast models of the time derivative of the ground magnetic field

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wintoft, Peter; Wik, Magnus; Viljanen, Ari

2015-03-01

Empirical models are developed to provide 10-30-min forecasts of the magnitude of the time derivative of local horizontal ground geomagnetic field (|dBh/dt|) over Europe. The models are driven by ACE solar wind data. A major part of the work has been devoted to the search and selection of datasets to support the model development. To simplify the problem, but at the same time capture sudden changes, 30-min maximum values of |dBh/dt| are forecast with a cadence of 1 min. Models are tested both with and without the use of ACE SWEPAM plasma data. It is shown that the models generally capture sudden increases in |dBh/dt| that are associated with sudden impulses (SI). The SI is the dominant disturbance source for geomagnetic latitudes below 50° N and with minor contribution from substorms. However, at occasions, large disturbances can be seen associated with geomagnetic pulsations. For higher latitudes longer lasting disturbances, associated with substorms, are generally also captured. It is also shown that the models using only solar wind magnetic field as input perform in most cases equally well as models with plasma data. The models have been verified using different approaches including the extremal dependence index which is suitable for rare events.

Testing the Interstellar Wind Helium Flow Direction with Galileo Euvs Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pryor, W. R.; Simmons, K. E.; Ajello, J. M.; Tobiska, W. K.; Retherford, K. D.; Stern, S. A.; Feldman, P. D.; Frisch, P. C.; Bzowski, M.; Grava, C.

2014-12-01

Forty years of measurements of the flow of interstellar helium through the heliosphere suggest that variations of the flow direction with time are possible. We will model Galileo Extreme Ultraviolet Spectrometer (EUVS) data to determine the best-fitting flow direction and compare it to values obtained by other spacecraft. The Galileo EUVS (Hord et al., 1992) was mounted on the spinning part of the spacecraft and obtained interstellar wind hydrogen Lyman-alpha 121.6 nm and helium 58.4 nm data on great circles passing near the ecliptic poles during the interplanetary cruise phase of the mission and also during the Jupiter orbital phase of the mission. The Galileo hydrogen cruise data have been previously published (Hord et al., 1991, Pryor et al., 1992; 1996; 2001), but the helium data have not. Our model was previously used by Ajello et al., 1978, 1979 to model Mariner 10 interstellar wind helium data, and by Stern et al., 2012 and Feldman et al., 2012 to model the interplanetary helium background near the moon in Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) Lyman-alpha Mapping Project (LAMP) data. The model has been updated to include recent determinations of daily helium 58.4 nm solar flux variations and helium losses due to EUV photoionization and electron impact ionization.

CWRF performance at downscaling China climate characteristics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liang, Xin-Zhong; Sun, Chao; Zheng, Xiaohui; Dai, Yongjiu; Xu, Min; Choi, Hyun I.; Ling, Tiejun; Qiao, Fengxue; Kong, Xianghui; Bi, Xunqiang; Song, Lianchun; Wang, Fang

2018-05-01

The performance of the regional Climate-Weather Research and Forecasting model (CWRF) for downscaling China climate characteristics is evaluated using a 1980-2015 simulation at 30 km grid spacing driven by the ECMWF Interim reanalysis (ERI). It is shown that CWRF outperforms the popular Regional Climate Modeling system (RegCM4.6) in key features including monsoon rain bands, diurnal temperature ranges, surface winds, interannual precipitation and temperature anomalies, humidity couplings, and 95th percentile daily precipitation. Even compared with ERI, which assimilates surface observations, CWRF better represents the geographic distributions of seasonal mean climate and extreme precipitation. These results indicate that CWRF may significantly enhance China climate modeling capabilities.

Self-Nowcast Model of extreme precipitation events for operational meteorology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

França, G. B.; de Almeida, M. V.; Rosette, A. C.

2015-10-01

Nowadays many social activities require short-term (one to two hours) and local area forecasts of extreme weather. In particular, air traffic systems have been studying how to minimize the impact of meteorological events, such as turbulence, wind shear, ice, and heavy rain, which are related to the presence of convective systems during all flight phases. This paper presents an alternative self-nowcast model, based on neural network techniques, to produce short-term and local-specific forecasts of extreme meteorological events in the area of the landing and take-off region of Galeão, the principal airport in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Twelve years of data were used for neural network training and validation. Data are originally from four sources: (1) hourly meteorological observations from surface meteorological stations at five airports distributed around the study area, (2) atmospheric profiles collected twice a day at the meteorological station at Galeão Airport, (3) rain rate data collected from a network of twenty-nine rain gauges in the study area; and (4) lightning data regularly collected by national detection networks. An investigation was done about the capability of a neural network to produce early warning signs - or as a nowcasting tool - for extreme meteorological events. The self-nowcast model was validated using results from six categorical statistics, indicated in parentheses for forecasts of the first, second, and third hours, respectively, namely: proportion correct (0.98, 0.96, and 0.94), bias (1.37, 1.48, and 1.83), probability of detection (0.84, 0.80, and 0.76), false-alarm ratio (0.38, 0.46, and 0.58), and threat score (0.54, 0.47, and 0.37). Possible sources of error related to the validation procedure are discussed. Two key points have been identified in which there is a possibility of error: i.e., subjectivity on the part of the meteorologist making the observation, and a rain gauge measurement error of about 20 % depending on wind speed. The latter was better demonstrated when lightning data were included in the validation. The validation showed that the proposed model's performance was quite encouraging for the first and second hours.

Scientific breakthroughs necessary for the commercial success of renewable energy (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharp, J.

2010-12-01

In recent years the wind energy industry has grown at an unprecedented rate, and in certain regions has attained significant penetration into the power infrastructure. This growth has been both a result of, and a precursor to, significant advances in the science and business of wind energy. But as a result of this growth and increasing penetration, further advances and breakthroughs will become increasingly important. These advances will be required in a number of different aspects of wind energy, including: resource assessment, operations and performance analysis, forecasting, and the impacts of increased wind energy development. Resource assessment has benefited from the development of tools specifically designed for this purpose. Despite this, the atmosphere is often portrayed in an extremely simplified manner by these tools. New methodologies should rely upon more sophisticated application of the physics of fluid flows. There will need to be an increasing reliance and acceptance of improved measurement techniques (remote sensing, volume rather than point measurements, etc), and more sophisticated and higher-resolution numerical methods for micrositing. The goals of resource assessment will have to include a better understanding of the variability and forecastability of potential sites. Operational and performance analysis are vital to quantifying how well all aspects of the business are being carried out. Operational wind farms generate large amounts of meteorological and mechanical data. Data mining and detailed analysis of this data has proven to be invaluable to shed light upon poorly understood aspects of the science and industry. Future analysis will need to be even more rigorous and creative. Worthy topics of study include the impact of turbine wakes upon downstream turbine performance, how to utilize operational data to improve resource assessment and forecasting, and what the impacts of large-scale wind energy development might be. Forecasting is an area in which there have been great advances, and yet even greater advances will be required in the future. Until recently, the scale of wind energy made forecasting relatively unimportant - something that could be handled by automated systems augmented with limited observations. Recently, however, the use of human forecasting teams and specialized observation networks has greatly advanced the state of the art. Further advances will need to include dense networks of observations, providing timely and reliable observations over a much deeper layer of the boundary layer. High resolution rapid refresh models incorporating these observations via data assimilation should advance the state of the art further. Finally, understanding potential impacts of increasing wind energy development is an area where there has been significant interest lately. Preliminary studies have raised concerns of possible unintended climatological consequences upon downwind areas. A policy breakthrough was the inclusion of language into SB 1462, providing for research into these concerns. Advances will be required in the areas of transmission system improvements. The generation of large amounts of wind energy itself will impact the energy infrastructure, and will require breakthroughs within all of the topics above, and thus be a breakthrough in its own right.

Ice-Shelf Melt Response to Changing Winds and Glacier Dynamics in the Amundsen Sea Sector, Antarctica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Donat-Magnin, Marion; Jourdain, Nicolas C.; Spence, Paul; Le Sommer, Julien; Gallée, Hubert; Durand, Gaël.

2017-12-01

It has been suggested that the coastal Southern Ocean subsurface may warm over the 21st century in response to strengthening and poleward shifting winds, with potential adverse effects on West Antarctic glaciers. However, using a 1/12° ocean regional model that includes ice-shelf cavities, we find a more complex response to changing winds in the Amundsen Sea. Simulated offshore subsurface waters get colder under strengthened and poleward shifted winds representative of the SAM projected trend. The buoyancy-driven circulation induced by ice-shelf melt transports this cold offshore anomaly onto the continental shelf, leading to cooling and decreased melt below 450 m. In the vicinity of ice-shelf fronts, Ekman pumping contributes to raise the isotherms in response to changing winds. This effect overwhelms the horizontal transport of colder offshore waters at intermediate depths (between 200 and 450 m), and therefore increases melt rates in the upper part of the ice-shelf cavities, which reinforces the buoyancy-driven circulation and further contributes to raise the isotherms. Then, prescribing an extreme grounding line retreat projected for 2100, the total melt rates simulated underneath Thwaites and Pine Island are multiplied by 2.5. Such increase is explained by a larger ocean/ice interface exposed to CDW, which is then amplified by a stronger melt-induced circulation along the ice draft. Our main conclusions are that (1) outputs from ocean models that do not represent ice shelf cavities (e.g., CMIP5 models) should not be directly used to predict the thermal forcing of future ice shelf cavities; (2) coupled ocean/ice sheet models with a velocity-dependent melt formulation are needed for future projections of glaciers experiencing a significant grounding line retreat.

Nocturnal Reversed Flows Above Parallel Ridges in Perdigão, Portugal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krishnamurthy, R.; Fernando, H. J.; Leo, L. S.; Vassallo, D.; Hocut, C. M.; Creegan, E.; Rodriguez, C. V.; Palma, J. L.

2017-12-01

Prediction of topographically forced or induced wind events is extremely important for dispersion modeling and wind energy studies in complex terrain. To improve the current understanding of micro-scale processes over complex terrain, a large-scale field experiment was conducted in Perdigão, Portugal from May 1st, 2017 to June 15th, 2017. Measurements over a periodic valley were performed using 52 meteorological met-masts, 30 Doppler Lidars (scanning & vertical profilers), 2 tethered lifting systems and other remote sensing instruments (Sodar-rass, wind profilers & radiometer), and radiosondes were released every 6 hours over the period of study. The observations showed several cases of flow reversals confined to a thin layer of 70 - 100 m above the ridge under stably stratified conditions. These flow reversals were mostly observed during the lee wave formation over the periodic valley. It was observed that the flow reversal occurs predominantly under two atmospheric conditions: a) presence of large recirculation zones on the lee side of the hill causing a pressure gradient between the lee-side floor and the mountain ridge, and b) local change in the horizontal pressure gradient due to differential heating rates of the neighboring valley atmospheres. Microscale flow simulations could capture these observed flow reversals. Based on the network of tower instruments and remote sensing devices, the development, structure and occurrences of the flow reversals are being analyzed and quantified. Since these flow reversals are observed within the rotor swept area of modern wind turbines, they would drastically increase the fatigue loads on wind turbine blades. This presentation will include reversed flow observations from several synchronized scanning Doppler Lidars and meteorological towers and a theoretical framework for reverse flow over parallel valleys.

Space Shuttle wind tunnel testing program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Whitnah, A. M.; Hillje, E. R.

1984-01-01

A major phase of the Space Shuttle Vehicle (SSV) Development Program was the acquisition of data through the space shuttle wind tunnel testing program. It became obvious that the large number of configuration/environment combinations would necessitate an extremely large wind tunnel testing program. To make the most efficient use of available test facilities and to assist the prime contractor for orbiter design and space shuttle vehicle integration, a unique management plan was devised for the design and development phase. The space shuttle program is reviewed together with the evolutional development of the shuttle configuration. The wind tunnel testing rationale and the associated test program management plan and its overall results is reviewed. Information is given for the various facilities and models used within this program. A unique posttest documentation procedure and a summary of the types of test per disciplines, per facility, and per model are presented with detailed listing of the posttest documentation.

Flying at no mechanical energy cost: disclosing the secret of wandering albatrosses.

PubMed

Sachs, Gottfried; Traugott, Johannes; Nesterova, Anna P; Dell'Omo, Giacomo; Kümmeth, Franz; Heidrich, Wolfgang; Vyssotski, Alexei L; Bonadonna, Francesco

2012-01-01

Albatrosses do something that no other birds are able to do: fly thousands of kilometres at no mechanical cost. This is possible because they use dynamic soaring, a flight mode that enables them to gain the energy required for flying from wind. Until now, the physical mechanisms of the energy gain in terms of the energy transfer from the wind to the bird were mostly unknown. Here we show that the energy gain is achieved by a dynamic flight manoeuvre consisting of a continually repeated up-down curve with optimal adjustment to the wind. We determined the energy obtained from the wind by analysing the measured trajectories of free flying birds using a new GPS-signal tracking method yielding a high precision. Our results reveal an evolutionary adaptation to an extreme environment, and may support recent biologically inspired research on robotic aircraft that might utilize albatrosses' flight technique for engineless propulsion.

Offshore Wind Guidance Document: Oceanography and Sediment Stability (Version 1) Development of a Conceptual Site Model.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Roberts, Jesse D.; Jason Magalen; Craig Jones

This guidance document provide s the reader with an overview of the key environmental considerations for a typical offshore wind coastal location and the tools to help guide the reader through a thoro ugh planning process. It will enable readers to identify the key coastal processes relevant to their offshore wind site and perform pertinent analysis to guide siting and layout design, with the goal of minimizing costs associated with planning, permitting , and long - ter m maintenance. The document highlight s site characterization and assessment techniques for evaluating spatial patterns of sediment dynamics in the vicinity of amore » wind farm under typical, extreme, and storm conditions. Finally, the document des cribe s the assimilation of all of this information into the conceptual site model (CSM) to aid the decision - making processes.« less

A 15N-poor isotopic composition for the solar system as shown by Genesis solar wind samples.

PubMed

Marty, B; Chaussidon, M; Wiens, R C; Jurewicz, A J G; Burnett, D S

2011-06-24

The Genesis mission sampled solar wind ions to document the elemental and isotopic compositions of the Sun and, by inference, of the protosolar nebula. Nitrogen was a key target element because the extent and origin of its isotopic variations in solar system materials remain unknown. Isotopic analysis of a Genesis Solar Wind Concentrator target material shows that implanted solar wind nitrogen has a (15)N/(14)N ratio of 2.18 ± 0.02 × 10(-3) (that is, ≈40% poorer in (15)N relative to terrestrial atmosphere). The (15)N/(14)N ratio of the protosolar nebula was 2.27 ± 0.03 × 10(-3), which is the lowest (15)N/(14)N ratio known for solar system objects. This result demonstrates the extreme nitrogen isotopic heterogeneity of the nascent solar system and accounts for the (15)N-depleted components observed in solar system reservoirs.

Flying at No Mechanical Energy Cost: Disclosing the Secret of Wandering Albatrosses

PubMed Central

Sachs, Gottfried; Traugott, Johannes; Nesterova, Anna P.; Dell'Omo, Giacomo; Kümmeth, Franz; Heidrich, Wolfgang

2012-01-01

Albatrosses do something that no other birds are able to do: fly thousands of kilometres at no mechanical cost. This is possible because they use dynamic soaring, a flight mode that enables them to gain the energy required for flying from wind. Until now, the physical mechanisms of the energy gain in terms of the energy transfer from the wind to the bird were mostly unknown. Here we show that the energy gain is achieved by a dynamic flight manoeuvre consisting of a continually repeated up-down curve with optimal adjustment to the wind. We determined the energy obtained from the wind by analysing the measured trajectories of free flying birds using a new GPS-signal tracking method yielding a high precision. Our results reveal an evolutionary adaptation to an extreme environment, and may support recent biologically inspired research on robotic aircraft that might utilize albatrosses' flight technique for engineless propulsion. PMID:22957014

Objective Tracking of Tropical Cyclones in the North-West Pacific Basin Based on Wind Field Information only

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leckebusch, G. C.; Befort, D. J.; Kruschke, T.

2016-12-01

Although only ca. 12% of the global insured losses of natural disasters occurred in Asia, there are two major reasons to be concerned about risks in Asia: a) The fraction of loss events was substantial higher with 39% of which 94% were due to atmospheric processes; b) Asia and especially China, is undergoing quick transitions and especially the insurance market is rapidly growing. In order to allow for the estimation of potential future (loss) impacts in East-Asia, in this study we further developed and applied a feature tracking system based on extreme wind speed occurrences to tropical cyclones, which was originally developed for extra-tropical cyclones (Leckebusch et al., 2008). In principle, wind fields will be identified and tracked once a coherent exceedance of local percentile thresholds is identified. The focus on severe wind impact will allow an objective link between the strength of a cyclone and its potential damages over land. The wind tracking is developed in such a way to be applicable also to course-gridded AOGCM simulation. In the presented configuration the wind tracking algorithm is applied to the Japanese reanalysis (JRA55) and TC Identification is based on 850hPa wind speeds (6h resolution) from 1979 to 2014 over the Western North Pacific region. For validation the IBTrACS Best Track archive version v03r8 is used. Out of all 904 observed tracks, about 62% can be matched to at least one windstorm event identified in JRA55. It is found that the relative amount of matched best tracks increases with the maximum intensity. Thus, a positive matching (hit rate) of above 98% for Violent Typhoons (VTY), above 90% for Very Strong Typhoons (VSTY), about 75% for Typhoons (TY), and still some 50% for less intense TCs (TD, TS, STS) is found. This result is extremely encouraging to apply this technique to AOGCM outputs and to derive information about affected regions and intensity-frequency distributions potentially changed under future climate conditions.

Added value of non-calibrated and BMA calibrated AEMET-SREPS probabilistic forecasts: the 24 January 2009 extreme wind event over Catalonia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Escriba, P. A.; Callado, A.; Santos, D.; Santos, C.; Simarro, J.; García-Moya, J. A.

2009-09-01

At 00 UTC 24 January 2009 an explosive ciclogenesis originated over the Atlantic Ocean reached its maximum intensity with observed surface pressures lower than 970 hPa on its center and placed at Gulf of Vizcaya. During its path through southern France this low caused strong westerly and north-westerly winds over the Iberian Peninsula higher than 150 km/h at some places. These extreme winds leaved 10 casualties in Spain, 8 of them in Catalonia. The aim of this work is to show whether exists an added value in the short range prediction of the 24 January 2009 strong winds when using the Short Range Ensemble Prediction System (SREPS) of the Spanish Meteorological Agency (AEMET), with respect to the operational forecasting tools. This study emphasizes two aspects of probabilistic forecasting: the ability of a 3-day forecast of warn an extreme windy event and the ability of quantifying the predictability of the event so that giving value to deterministic forecast. Two type of probabilistic forecasts of wind are carried out, a non-calibrated and a calibrated one using Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA). AEMET runs daily experimentally SREPS twice a day (00 and 12 UTC). This system consists of 20 members that are constructed by integrating 5 local area models, COSMO (COSMO), HIRLAM (HIRLAM Consortium), HRM (DWD), MM5 (NOAA) and UM (UKMO), at 25 km of horizontal resolution. Each model uses 4 different initial and boundary conditions, the global models GFS (NCEP), GME (DWD), IFS (ECMWF) and UM. By this way it is obtained a probabilistic forecast that takes into account the initial, the contour and the model errors. BMA is a statistical tool for combining predictive probability functions from different sources. The BMA predictive probability density function (PDF) is a weighted average of PDFs centered on the individual bias-corrected forecasts. The weights are equal to posterior probabilities of the models generating the forecasts and reflect the skill of the ensemble members. Here BMA is applied to provide probabilistic forecasts of wind speed. In this work several forecasts for different time ranges (H+72, H+48 and H+24) of 10 meters wind speed over Catalonia are verified subjectively at one of the instants of maximum intensity, 12 UTC 24 January 2009. On one hand, three probabilistic forecasts are compared, ECMWF EPS, non-calibrated SREPS and calibrated SREPS. On the other hand, the relationship between predictability and skill of deterministic forecast is studied by looking at HIRLAM 0.16 deterministic forecasts of the event. Verification is focused on location and intensity of 10 meters wind speed and 10-minutal measures from AEMET automatic ground stations are used as observations. The results indicate that SREPS is able to forecast three days ahead mean winds higher than 36 km/h and that correctly localizes them with a significant probability of ocurrence in the affected area. The probability is higher after BMA calibration of the ensemble. The fact that probability of strong winds is high allows us to state that the predictability of the event is also high and, as a consequence, deterministic forecasts are more reliable. This is confirmed when verifying HIRLAM deterministic forecasts against observed values.

Hurlburt Field, Florida. Revised Uniform Summary of Surface Weather Observations (RUSSWO). Parts A-F.

DTIC Science & Technology

1982-09-20

SURFACE WEATHER OBSERVATIONS 2 2 SEP W ISJRLSURT FLD FL MSC #747770 E 30 26 w o86 41 FLU ELEV 38 FT FRT PARTS A-F POR FROM HOURLY OBS: JAN 67 - DEC 70...amounts and extreme valuesl; C) Surface winds; (D) Ceiling versus Visibility; Sky Cover; ( E )-Psychrometric Summaries (daily maximum and minimum...for this station: PART A WEATHER CONDITIONS PART E DAILY MAX, MIN, & MEAN TEMP ATMOSPHERIC PHENOMENA EXTREME MAX & MIN TEMP PART I PRECIPITATION

Sensitivity of ocean oxygenation to variations in tropical zonal wind stress magnitude

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ridder, Nina N.; England, Matthew H.

2014-09-01

Ocean oxygenation has been observed to have changed over the past few decades and is projected to change further under global climate change due to an interplay of several mechanisms. In this study we isolate the effect of modified tropical surface wind stress conditions on the evolution of ocean oxygenation in a numerical climate model. We find that ocean oxygenation varies inversely with low-latitude surface wind stress. Approximately one third of this response is driven by sea surface temperature anomalies; the remaining two thirds result from changes in ocean circulation and marine biology. Global mean O2 concentration changes reach maximum values of +4 μM and -3.6 μM in the two most extreme perturbation cases of -30% and +30% wind change, respectively. Localized changes lie between +92 μM under 30% reduced winds and -56 μM for 30% increased winds. Overall, we find that the extent of the global low-oxygen volume varies with the same sign as the wind perturbation; namely, weaker winds reduce the low-oxygen volume on the global scale and vice versa for increased trade winds. We identify two regions, one in the Pacific Ocean off Chile and the other in the Indian Ocean off Somalia, that are of particular importance for the evolution of oxygen minimum zones in the global ocean.

Ockham's Razorblade Shaving Wind-Induced Circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bergmann, Juan Carlos

2010-05-01

Terrestrial physical oceanography is fortunate because of the existence of the continents that divide the low-latitude oceans into basins. At first glance, the previous statement appears to be not obvious because an ocean-planet should be much simpler to describe. Simple-case explanation is the central aspect of Ockham's Razorblade: If a theory fails to describe the most-simple case properly, the theory is, at least, ‘not good'. Also Descartes' methodical rules take the most-simple case as starting point. The analysis of wind-induced circulation on an ocean-planet will support the initial statement. Earth's south hemisphere is dominated by the oceans. The continents' influence on the zonal-average zonal-wind climate is relatively small. Therefore, South Hemisphere's zonal wind pattern is a relatively good proxy for that of an ocean planet. Application of this wind-stress pattern to an ocean planet yields reasonable meridional mass-flow results from the polar-regions down to the high-pressure belts: Down-welling and up-welling of water-mass are approximately balanced. However, the entire tropical circulation can in principle not be closed because there is only down-welling - even if the extreme down-welling in the equatorial belt (± 8°, with a singularity at the equator) is disregarded. The only input to the calculations is the observed terrestrial south-hemisphere zonal wind-stress pattern. Meridional stress is irrelevant because it produces a closed zonal Ekman-transport around the ocean planet (sic!). Vertical mass-transport is calculated from the divergence of the wind-induced meridional Ekman-mass-transport, which in its turn is a necessary consequence of angular-momentum conservation. No assumptions are made on how the return-flows at depth are forced because the wind-force equations cannot contribute hereto. This circumstance expresses a fundamental difference to atmospheric circulation, where mechanical forcing is caused by the pressure-fields that result from differential heating/cooling and therefore ‘automatically' comprise the entire circulation system. Wind-caused oceanic flow is exclusively generated by frictional wind-forces at the surface, and other processes in the ocean are not causally connected hereto. In absence of continents it is quite difficult to ‘find' the corresponding forcing for the meridional return-flows - and it can definitely not be wind-force-caused - very strange! The fact that the wind-induced circulation can only be closed by the action of other processes, which are not causally connected to wind-forces, demonstrates that something must be fundamentally wrong. The singularity at the equator and the extreme down-welling in the equatorial belt indicate an additional severe problem that can only be avoided if zonal wind-stress is completely excluded. Escape to additional assumptions is similar to the introduction of the epicycles in order to explain the planets' retrograde motion in maintaining geocentric cosmology. Should the previous analysis be ignored in favour of maintaining the ‘established' ideas of wind-induced circulation or should there be an effort to formulate new ideas that provide closed and balanced circulation without employing other processes than wind-forces?

7 CFR 1709.3 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

..., wood and other biomass fuels, coal, wind and solar energy. Fuels used for subsistence activities in... ASSISTANCE TO HIGH ENERGY COST COMMUNITIES General Requirements § 1709.3 Definitions. Administrator means the... so identified in USDA regulations. Extremely high energy costs means community average residential...

7 CFR 1709.3 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

..., wood and other biomass fuels, coal, wind and solar energy. Fuels used for subsistence activities in... ASSISTANCE TO HIGH ENERGY COST COMMUNITIES General Requirements § 1709.3 Definitions. Administrator means the... so identified in USDA regulations. Extremely high energy costs means community average residential...

7 CFR 1709.3 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

..., wood and other biomass fuels, coal, wind and solar energy. Fuels used for subsistence activities in... ASSISTANCE TO HIGH ENERGY COST COMMUNITIES General Requirements § 1709.3 Definitions. Administrator means the... so identified in USDA regulations. Extremely high energy costs means community average residential...

7 CFR 1709.3 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

..., wood and other biomass fuels, coal, wind and solar energy. Fuels used for subsistence activities in... ASSISTANCE TO HIGH ENERGY COST COMMUNITIES General Requirements § 1709.3 Definitions. Administrator means the... so identified in USDA regulations. Extremely high energy costs means community average residential...

7 CFR 1709.3 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

..., wood and other biomass fuels, coal, wind and solar energy. Fuels used for subsistence activities in... ASSISTANCE TO HIGH ENERGY COST COMMUNITIES General Requirements § 1709.3 Definitions. Administrator means the... so identified in USDA regulations. Extremely high energy costs means community average residential...

Changing monsoon and midlatitude circulation interactions over the Western Himalayas and possible links to occurrences of extreme precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Priya, P.; Krishnan, R.; Mujumdar, Milind; Houze, Robert A.

2017-10-01

Historical rainfall records reveal that the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events, during the summer monsoon (June-September) season, have significantly risen over the Western Himalayas (WH) and adjoining upper Indus basin since 1950s. Using multiple datasets, the present study investigates the possible coincidences between an increasing trend of precipitation extremes over WH and changes in background flow climatology. The present findings suggest that the combined effects of a weakened southwest monsoon circulation, increased activity of transient upper-air westerly troughs over the WH region, enhanced moisture supply by southerly winds from the Arabian Sea into the Indus basin have likely provided favorable conditions for an increased frequency of certain types of extreme precipitation events over the WH region in recent decades.

Exploration of the Characteristics of the Time Variable Component of the Coronal Heating Process

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wagner, William (Technical Monitor); Habbal, Shadia R.

2003-01-01

By coordinating coronal SOHO observations in white light, ultraviolet, extreme ultraviolet, with radio occultation measurements, and complementing these with modeling, two break-throughs were achieved from this funding: (1) The discovery that minor ions are accelerated much faster than protons in the fast solar wind, and (2) that the imprint of coronal density structures is carried outwards from the Sun into the solar wind. Three refereed papers and one invited review, published in the proceedings of the conference, resulted from this funding. A summary of each is given.

Coronal Hole Facing Earth

NASA Image and Video Library

2018-05-08

An extensive equatorial coronal hole has rotated so that it is now facing Earth (May 2-4, 2018). The dark coronal hole extends about halfway across the solar disk. It was observed in a wavelength of extreme ultraviolet light. This magnetically open area is streaming solar wind (i.e., a stream of charged particles released from the sun) into space. When Earth enters a solar wind stream and the stream interacts with our magnetosphere, we often experience nice displays of aurora. Videos are available at https://photojournal.jpl.nasa.gov/catalog/PIA00624

Coronal Hole Faces Earth

NASA Image and Video Library

2017-08-14

A substantial coronal hole rotated into a position where it is facing Earth (Aug. 9-11, 2017). Coronal holes are areas of open magnetic field that spew out charged particles as solar wind that spreads into space. If that solar wind interacts with our own magnetosphere it can generate aurora. In this view of the sun in extreme ultraviolet light, the coronal hole appears as the dark stretch near the center of the sun. It was the most distinctive feature on the sun over the past week. Movies are available at https://photojournal.jpl.nasa.gov/catalog/PIA21874

Returning Coronal Hole

NASA Image and Video Library

2017-02-06

A substantial coronal hole rotated across the face of the sun this past week and is again streaming solar wind towards Earth (Jan. 30 - Feb. 2, 2017). This same coronal hole was facing Earth about a month ago and has rotated into a similar position again. Coronal holes are areas of open magnetic field from which solar wind particles stream into space. In this wavelength of extreme ultraviolet light it appears as a dark area near the center and lower portion of the sun. Movies are available at http://photojournal.jpl.nasa.gov/catalog/PIA11177

Lengthy Coronal Hole

NASA Image and Video Library

2017-01-09

An elongated coronal hole rotated across the face of the sun this past week so that it is now streaming solar wind towards Earth (Jan. 2-5, 2017). Coronal holes are areas of open magnetic field from which solar wind particles stream into space. In this wavelength of extreme ultraviolet light it appears as a dark area near the center and lower portion of the sun. The particle stream will likely generate aurora here on Earth. Check spaceweather.com for updates on auroral activity. Movies are available at http://photojournal.jpl.nasa.gov/catalog/PIA14093

Ultrastrong Carbon Thin Films from Diamond to Graphene under Extreme Conditions: Probing Atomic Scale Interfacial Mechanisms to Achieve Ultralow Friction and Wear

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-12-08

of Current Advances and Challenges for the Future. Trib. Int. 37, 517-536 (2004). 6. Doll, G.L. and Evans, R.D. Solving Wind Turbine Tribological...and Doll, G.L. Tribological Advancements for Reliable Wind Turbine Performance. Phil. Trans. A 368, 4829-50 (2010). 8. Grillo, S.E. and Field, J.E...environments (as found in the upper atmosphere and in outer space), and protective coatings for bearings, bushings, and gears in engines, turbines and

Earth-Facing Coronal Holes

NASA Image and Video Library

2016-11-09

Two good-sized coronal holes have rotated around to the center of the sun where they will be spewing solar wind towards Earth (Nov. 8-9, 2016). Coronal holes are areas of open magnetic field from which solar wind particles stream into space. In this wavelength of extreme ultraviolet light they appear as the two dark areas at the center and lower portion of the sun. The stream of particles should reach Earth in a few days and are likely to generate aurora. Videos are available at http://photojournal.jpl.nasa.gov/catalog/PIA16909

Advanced Model for Extreme Lift and Improved Aeroacoustics (AMELIA)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lichtwardt, Jonathan; Paciano, Eric; Jameson, Tina; Fong, Robert; Marshall, David

2012-01-01

With the very recent advent of NASA's Environmentally Responsible Aviation Project (ERA), which is dedicated to designing aircraft that will reduce the impact of aviation on the environment, there is a need for research and development of methodologies to minimize fuel burn, emissions, and reduce community noise produced by regional airliners. ERA tackles airframe technology, propulsion technology, and vehicle systems integration to meet performance objectives in the time frame for the aircraft to be at a Technology Readiness Level (TRL) of 4-6 by the year of 2020 (deemed N+2). The proceeding project that investigated similar goals to ERA was NASA's Subsonic Fixed Wing (SFW). SFW focused on conducting research to improve prediction methods and technologies that will produce lower noise, lower emissions, and higher performing subsonic aircraft for the Next Generation Air Transportation System. The work provided in this investigation was a NASA Research Announcement (NRA) contract #NNL07AA55C funded by Subsonic Fixed Wing. The project started in 2007 with a specific goal of conducting a large-scale wind tunnel test along with the development of new and improved predictive codes for the advanced powered-lift concepts. Many of the predictive codes were incorporated to refine the wind tunnel model outer mold line design. The large scale wind tunnel test goal was to investigate powered lift technologies and provide an experimental database to validate current and future modeling techniques. Powered-lift concepts investigated were Circulation Control (CC) wing in conjunction with over-the-wing mounted engines to entrain the exhaust to further increase the lift generated by CC technologies alone. The NRA was a five-year effort; during the first year the objective was to select and refine CESTOL concepts and then to complete a preliminary design of a large-scale wind tunnel model for the large scale test. During the second, third, and fourth years the large-scale wind tunnel model design would be completed, manufactured, and calibrated. During the fifth year the large scale wind tunnel test was conducted. This technical memo will describe all phases of the Advanced Model for Extreme Lift and Improved Aeroacoustics (AMELIA) project and provide a brief summary of the background and modeling efforts involved in the NRA. The conceptual designs considered for this project and the decision process for the selected configuration adapted for a wind tunnel model will be briefly discussed. The internal configuration of AMELIA, and the internal measurements chosen in order to satisfy the requirements of obtaining a database of experimental data to be used for future computational model validations. The external experimental techniques that were employed during the test, along with the large-scale wind tunnel test facility are covered in great detail. Experimental measurements in the database include forces and moments, and surface pressure distributions, local skin friction measurements, boundary and shear layer velocity profiles, far-field acoustic data and noise signatures from turbofan propulsion simulators. Results and discussion of the circulation control performance, over-the-wing mounted engines, and the combined performance are also discussed in great detail.

Solar Wind Interaction with the Martian Upper Atmosphere at Early Mars/Extreme Solar Conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dong, C.; Bougher, S. W.; Ma, Y.; Toth, G.; Lee, Y.; Nagy, A. F.; Tenishev, V.; Pawlowski, D. J.; Combi, M. R.

2014-12-01

The investigation of ion escape fluxes from Mars, resulting from the solar wind interaction with its upper atmosphere/ionosphere, is important due to its potential impact on the long-term evolution of Mars atmosphere (e.g., loss of water) over its history. In the present work, we adopt the 3-D Mars cold neutral atmosphere profiles (0 ~ 300 km) from the newly developed and validated Mars Global Ionosphere Thermosphere Model (M-GITM) and the 3-D hot oxygen profiles (100 km ~ 5 RM) from the exosphere Monte Carlo model Adaptive Mesh Particle Simulator (AMPS). We apply these 3-D model output fields into the 3-D BATS-R-US Mars multi-fluid MHD (MF-MHD) model (100 km ~ 20 RM) that can simulate the interplay between Mars upper atmosphere and solar wind by considering the dynamics of individual ion species. The multi-fluid MHD model solves separate continuity, momentum and energy equations for each ion species (H+, O+, O2+, CO2+). The M-GITM model together with the AMPS exosphere model take into account the effects of solar cycle and seasonal variations on both cold and hot neutral atmospheres. This feature allows us to investigate the corresponding effects on the Mars upper atmosphere ion escape by using a one-way coupling approach, i.e., both the M-GITM and AMPS model output fields are used as the input for the multi-fluid MHD model and the M-GITM is used as input into the AMPS exosphere model. In this study, we present M-GITM, AMPS, and MF-MHD calculations (1-way coupled) for 2.5 GYA conditions and/or extreme solar conditions for present day Mars (high solar wind velocities, high solar wind dynamic pressure, and high solar irradiance conditions, etc.). Present day extreme conditions may result in MF-MHD outputs that are similar to 2.5 GYA cases. The crustal field orientations are also considered in this study. By comparing estimates of past ion escape rates with the current ion loss rates to be returned by the MAVEN spacecraft (2013-2016), we can better constrain the total ion loss to space over Mars history, and thus enhance the science returned from the MAVEN mission.

Infrasound ray tracing models for real events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Averbuch, Gil; Applbaum, David; Price, Colin; Ben Horin, Yochai

2015-04-01

Infrasound ray tracing models for real events C. Price1, G. Averbuch1, D. Applbaum1, Y. Ben Horin2 (1) Department of Geosciences, Tel Aviv University, Israel (2) Soreq Nuclear Research Center, Yavne, Israel Ray tracing models for infrasound propagation require two atmospheric parameters: the speed of sound profile and the wind profile. The usage of global atmospheric models for the speed of sound and wind profiles raises a fundamental question: can these models provide accurate results for modeling real events that have been detected by the infrasound arrays? Moreover, can these models provide accurate results for events that occurred during extreme weather conditions? We use 2D and 3D ray tracing models based on a modified Hamiltonian for a moving medium. Radiosonde measurements enable us to update the first 20 km of both speed of sound and wind profiles. The 2009 and 2011 Sayarim calibration experiments in Israel served us as a test for the models. In order to answer the question regarding the accuracy of the model during extreme weather conditions, we simulate infrasound sprite signals that were detected by the infrasound array in Mt. Meron, Israel. The results from modeling the Sayarim experiment provided us sufficient insight to conclude that ray tracing modeling can provide accurate results for real events that occurred during fair weather conditions. We conclude that the time delay in the model of the 2009 experiment is due to lack of accuracy in the wind and speed of sound profiles. Perturbed profiles provide accurate results. Earlier arrivals in 2011 are a result of the assumption that the earth is flat (no topography) and the use of local radiosonde measurements for the entire model. Using local radiosonde measurements only for part of the model and neglecting them on other parts prevents the early arrivals. We were able to determine which sprite is the one that got detected in the infrasound array as well as providing a height range for the sprite's height or the sprite's most energetic part. Even though atmospheric wind has a strong influence on infrasound wave propagation, our estimation is that for high altitude sources, extreme weather in the troposphere below has low impact on the trajectories of the waves.

Usage of Parameterized Fatigue Spectra and Physics-Based Systems Engineering Models for Wind Turbine Component Sizing: Preprint

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Parsons, Taylor; Guo, Yi; Veers, Paul

Software models that use design-level input variables and physics-based engineering analysis for estimating the mass and geometrical properties of components in large-scale machinery can be very useful for analyzing design trade-offs in complex systems. This study uses DriveSE, an OpenMDAO-based drivetrain model that uses stress and deflection criteria to size drivetrain components within a geared, upwind wind turbine. Because a full lifetime fatigue load spectrum can only be defined using computationally-expensive simulations in programs such as FAST, a parameterized fatigue loads spectrum that depends on wind conditions, rotor diameter, and turbine design life has been implemented. The parameterized fatigue spectrummore » is only used in this paper to demonstrate the proposed fatigue analysis approach. This paper details a three-part investigation of the parameterized approach and a comparison of the DriveSE model with and without fatigue analysis on the main shaft system. It compares loads from three turbines of varying size and determines if and when fatigue governs drivetrain sizing compared to extreme load-driven design. It also investigates the model's sensitivity to shaft material parameters. The intent of this paper is to demonstrate how fatigue considerations in addition to extreme loads can be brought into a system engineering optimization.« less

Quantifying the Extremity of Windstorms for Regions Featuring Infrequent Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walz, M. A.; Leckebusch, G. C.; Kruschke, T.; Rust, H.; Ulbrich, U.

2017-12-01

This paper introduces the Distribution-Independent Storm Severity Index (DI-SSI). The DI-SSI represents an approach to quantify the severity of exceptional surface wind speeds of large scale windstorms that is complementary to the Storm Severity Index (SSI) introduced by Leckebusch et al. (2008). While the SSI approaches the extremeness of a storm from a meteorological and potential loss (impact) perspective, the DI-SSI defines the severity in a more climatological perspective. The idea is to assign equal index values to wind speeds of the same singularity (e.g. the 99th percentile) under consideration of the shape of the tail of the local wind speed climatology. Especially in regions at the edge of the classical storm track the DI-SSI shows more equitable severity estimates, e.g. for the extra-tropical cyclone Klaus. Here were compare the integral severity indices for several prominent windstorm in the European domain and discuss the advantages and disadvantages of the respective index. In order to compare the indices, their relation with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is studied, which is one of the main large scale drivers for the intensity of European windstorms. Additionally we can identify a significant relationship between the frequency and intensity of windstorms for large parts of the European domain.

Computational modelling of an operational wind turbine and validation with LIDAR

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Creech, Angus; Fruh, Wolf-Gerrit; Clive, Peter

2010-05-01

We present a computationally efficient method to model the interaction of wind turbines with the surrounding flow, where the interaction provides information on the power generation of the turbine and the generated wake behind the turbine. The turbine representation is based on the principle of an actuator volume, whereby the energy extraction and balancing forces on the fluids are formulated as body forces which avoids the extremely high computational costs of boundary conditions and forces. Depending on the turbine information available, those forces can be derived either from published turbine performance specifications or from their rotor and blade design. This turbine representation is then coupled to a Computational Fluid Dynamics package, in this case the hr-adaptive Finite-Element code Fluidity from Imperial College, London. Here we present a simulation of an operational 950kW NEG Micon NM54 wind turbine installed in the west of Scotland. The calculated wind is compared with LIDAR measurements using a Galion LIDAR from SgurrEnergy. The computational domain extends over an area of 6km by 6km and a height of 750m, centred on the turbine. The lower boundary includes the orography of the terrain and surface roughness values representing the vegetation - some forested areas and some grassland. The boundary conditions on the sides are relaxed Dirichlet conditions, relaxed to an observed prevailing wind speed and direction. Within instrumental errors and model limitations, the overall flow field in general and the wake behind the turbine in particular, show a very high degree of agreement, demonstrating the validity and value of this approach. The computational costs of this approach are such that it is possible to extend this single-turbine example to a full wind farm, as the number of required mesh nodes is given by the domain and then increases only linearly with the number of turbines

Observations of an extreme storm in interplanetary space caused by successive coronal mass ejections.

PubMed

Liu, Ying D; Luhmann, Janet G; Kajdič, Primož; Kilpua, Emilia K J; Lugaz, Noé; Nitta, Nariaki V; Möstl, Christian; Lavraud, Benoit; Bale, Stuart D; Farrugia, Charles J; Galvin, Antoinette B

2014-03-18

Space weather refers to dynamic conditions on the Sun and in the space environment of the Earth, which are often driven by solar eruptions and their subsequent interplanetary disturbances. It has been unclear how an extreme space weather storm forms and how severe it can be. Here we report and investigate an extreme event with multi-point remote-sensing and in situ observations. The formation of the extreme storm showed striking novel features. We suggest that the in-transit interaction between two closely launched coronal mass ejections resulted in the extreme enhancement of the ejecta magnetic field observed near 1 AU at STEREO A. The fast transit to STEREO A (in only 18.6 h), or the unusually weak deceleration of the event, was caused by the preconditioning of the upstream solar wind by an earlier solar eruption. These results provide a new view crucial to solar physics and space weather as to how an extreme space weather event can arise from a combination of solar eruptions.

Multifractal Analysis of the Small Time-Scale Boundary-Layer Characteristics of the Wind: the Anisotropy and Extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fitton, G. F.; Tchiguirinskaia, I.; Schertzer, D. J.; Lovejoy, S.

2012-12-01

Under various physical conditions (mean temperature and velocity gradients, stratification and rotation) atmospheric turbulent flows remain intrinsically anisotropic. The immediate vicinity of physical boundaries rises to a greater complexity of the anisotropy effects. In this paper we address the issue of the scaling anisotropy of the wind velocity fields within the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL). Under the universal multifractal (UM) framework we compare the small time-scale (0.1 to 1,000 seconds) boundary-layer characteristics of the wind for two different case studies. The first case study consisted of a single mast located within a wind farm in Corsica, France. Three sonic anemometers were installed on the mast at 22, 23 and 43m, measuring three-dimensional wind velocity data at 10Hz. Wakes, complex terrain and buoyancy forces influenced the measurements. The second case study (GROWIAN experiment in Germany) consisted of an array of propeller anemometers measuring wind speed inflow data at 2.5Hz over flat terrain. The propeller anemometers were positioned vertically at 10, 50, 75, 100, 125 and 150m with four horizontal measurements taken at 75, 100 and 125m. The spatial distribution allowed us to calculate the horizontal and vertical shear structure functions of the horizontal wind. Both case studies are within a kilometre from the sea. For the first case study (10Hz measurements in a wind farm test site) the high temporal resolution of the data meant we observed Kolmogorov scaling from 0.2 seconds (with intermittency correction) right up to 1,000 seconds at which point a scaling break occurred. After the break we observed a scaling power law of approximately 2, which is in agreement with Bolgiano-Obukhov scaling theory with intermittency correction. However, for the second case study (2.5Hz on flat terrain) we only observed Kolmogorov scaling from 6.4 seconds (also with intermittency correction). The spectra of horizontal velocity components remain anisotropic over high frequencies, where u1 most scales as Bolgiano-Obukhov and u2 scales as Kolmogorov. The scaling law of the vertical shears of the horizontal wind in the array varied from Kolmogorov to Bolgiano-Obukhov with height depending on the condition of stability. We interpret the results with the UM anisotropic model that greatly enhances our understanding of the ABL structure. Comparing the two case studies we found in both cases the multifractality parameter of about 1.6, which remains close to the estimates obtained for the free atmosphere. From the UM parameters, the exponent of the power law of the distribution of the extremes can be predicted. Over small scales, this exponent is of about 7.5 for the wind velocity, which is a crucial result for applications within the field of wind energy.

Comparison of numerical weather prediction based deterministic and probabilistic wind resource assessment methods

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhang, Jie; Draxl, Caroline; Hopson, Thomas

Numerical weather prediction (NWP) models have been widely used for wind resource assessment. Model runs with higher spatial resolution are generally more accurate, yet extremely computational expensive. An alternative approach is to use data generated by a low resolution NWP model, in conjunction with statistical methods. In order to analyze the accuracy and computational efficiency of different types of NWP-based wind resource assessment methods, this paper performs a comparison of three deterministic and probabilistic NWP-based wind resource assessment methodologies: (i) a coarse resolution (0.5 degrees x 0.67 degrees) global reanalysis data set, the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applicationsmore » (MERRA); (ii) an analog ensemble methodology based on the MERRA, which provides both deterministic and probabilistic predictions; and (iii) a fine resolution (2-km) NWP data set, the Wind Integration National Dataset (WIND) Toolkit, based on the Weather Research and Forecasting model. Results show that: (i) as expected, the analog ensemble and WIND Toolkit perform significantly better than MERRA confirming their ability to downscale coarse estimates; (ii) the analog ensemble provides the best estimate of the multi-year wind distribution at seven of the nine sites, while the WIND Toolkit is the best at one site; (iii) the WIND Toolkit is more accurate in estimating the distribution of hourly wind speed differences, which characterizes the wind variability, at five of the available sites, with the analog ensemble being best at the remaining four locations; and (iv) the analog ensemble computational cost is negligible, whereas the WIND Toolkit requires large computational resources. Future efforts could focus on the combination of the analog ensemble with intermediate resolution (e.g., 10-15 km) NWP estimates, to considerably reduce the computational burden, while providing accurate deterministic estimates and reliable probabilistic assessments.« less

Wind tunnel test of Teledyne Geotech model 1564B cup anemometer

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Parker, M.J.; Addis, R.P.

1991-04-04

The Department of Energy (DOE) Environment, Safety and Health Compliance Assessment (Tiger Team) of the Savannah River Site (SRS) questioned the method by which wind speed sensors (cup anemometers) are calibrated by the Environmental Technology Section (ETS). The Tiger Team member was concerned that calibration data was generated by running the wind tunnel to only 26 miles per hour (mph) when speeds exceeding 50 mph are readily obtainable. A wind tunnel experiment was conducted and confirmed the validity of the practice. Wind speeds common to SRS (6 mph) were predicted more accurately by 0--25 mph regression equations than 0--50 mphmore » regression equations. Higher wind speeds were slightly overpredicted by the 0--25 mph regression equations when compared to 0--50 mph regression equations. However, the greater benefit of more accurate lower wind speed predictions accuracy outweight the benefit of slightly better high (extreme) wind speed predictions. Therefore, it is concluded that 0--25 mph regression equations should continue to be utilized by ETS at SRS. During the Department of Energy Tiger Team audit, concerns were raised about the calibration of SRS cup anemometers. Wind speed is measured by ETS with Teledyne Geotech model 1564B cup anemometers, which are calibrated in the ETS wind tunnel. Linear regression lines are fitted to data points of tunnel speed versus anemometer output voltages up to 25 mph. The regression coefficients are then implemented into the data acquisition computer software when an instrument is installed in the field. The concern raised was that since the wind tunnel at SRS is able to generate a maximum wind speed higher than 25 mph, errors may be introduced in not using the full range of the wind tunnel.« less

Wind tunnel test of Teledyne Geotech model 1564B cup anemometer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parker, M. J.; Addis, R. P.

1991-04-01

The Department of Energy (DOE) Environment, Safety, and Health Compliance Assessment (Tiger Team) of the Savannah River Site (SRS) questioned the method by which wind speed sensors (cup anemometers) are calibrated by the Environmental Technology Section (ETS). The Tiger Team member was concerned that calibration data was generated by running the wind tunnel to only 26 miles per hour (mph) when speeds exceeding 50 mph are readily obtainable. A wind tunnel experiment was conducted and confirmed the validity of the practice. Wind speeds common to SRS (6 mph) were predicted more accurately by 0-25 mph regression equations than 0-50 mph regression equations. Higher wind speeds were slightly overpredicted by the 0-25 mph regression equations when compared to 0-50 mph regression equations. However, the greater benefit of more accurate lower wind speed predictions accuracy outweigh the benefit of slightly better high (extreme) wind speed predictions. Therefore, it is concluded that 0-25 mph regression equations should continue to be utilized by ETS at SRS. During the Department of Energy Tiger Team audit, concerns were raised about the calibration of SRS cup anemometers. Wind speed is measured by ETS with Teledyne Geotech model 1564B cup anemometers, which are calibrated in the ETS wind tunnel. Linear regression lines are fitted to data points of tunnel speed versus anemometer output voltages up to 25 mph. The regression coefficients are then implemented into the data acquisition computer software when an instrument is installed in the field. The concern raised was that since the wind tunnel at SRS is able to generate a maximum wind speed higher than 25 mph, errors may be introduced in not using the full range of the wind tunnel.

Sensitivity of the WRF model to the lower boundary in an extreme precipitation event - Madeira island case study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Teixeira, J. C.; Carvalho, A. C.; Carvalho, M. J.; Luna, T.; Rocha, A.

2014-08-01

The advances in satellite technology in recent years have made feasible the acquisition of high-resolution information on the Earth's surface. Examples of such information include elevation and land use, which have become more detailed. Including this information in numerical atmospheric models can improve their results in simulating lower boundary forced events, by providing detailed information on their characteristics. Consequently, this work aims to study the sensitivity of the weather research and forecast (WRF) model to different topography as well as land-use simulations in an extreme precipitation event. The test case focused on a topographically driven precipitation event over the island of Madeira, which triggered flash floods and mudslides in the southern parts of the island. Difference fields between simulations were computed, showing that the change in the data sets produced statistically significant changes to the flow, the planetary boundary layer structure and precipitation patterns. Moreover, model results show an improvement in model skill in the windward region for precipitation and in the leeward region for wind, in spite of the non-significant enhancement in the overall results with higher-resolution data sets of topography and land use.

Exceptional winter storms affecting Western Iberia and extremes: diagnosis, modelling and multi-model ensemble projection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liberato, M. L. R.; Pinto, J. G.; Gil, V.; Ramos, A. M.; Trigo, R. M.

2017-12-01

Extratropical cyclones dominate autumn and winter weather over Western Europe and particularly over the Iberian Peninsula. Intense, high-impact storms are one of the major weather risks in the region, mostly due to the simultaneous occurrence of high winds and extreme precipitation events. These intense extratropical cyclones may result in windstorm damage, flooding and coastal storm surges, with large societal impacts. In Portugal, due to the extensive human use of coastal areas, the natural and built coastal environments have been amongst the most affected. In this work several historical winter storms that adversely affected the Western Iberian Peninsula are studied in detail in order to contribute to an improved assessment of the characteristics of these events. The diagnosis has been performed based on instrumental daily precipitation and wind records, on satellite images, on reanalysis data and through model simulations. For several examples the synoptic evolution and upper-level dynamics analysis of physical processes controlling the life cycle of extratropical storms associated with the triggering of the considered extreme events has also been accomplished. Furthermore, the space-time variability of the exceptionally severe storms affecting Western Iberia over the last century and under three climate scenarios (the historical simulation, the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios) is presented. These studies contribute to improving the knowledge of atmospheric dynamics controlling the life cycle of midlatitude storms associated to severe weather (precipitation and wind) in the Iberian Peninsula. AcknowledgementsThis work is supported by the Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology (FCT), Portugal, through project UID/GEO/50019/2013 - Instituto Dom Luiz. A. M. Ramos is also supported by a FCT postdoctoral grant (FCT/DFRH/SFRH/BPD/84328/2012).

Climate, not conflict, explains extreme Middle East dust storm

DOE PAGES

Parolari, Anthony J.; Li, Dan; Bou-Zeid, Elie; ...

2016-11-08

The recent dust storm in the Middle East (Sepember 2015) was publicized in the media as a sign of an impending 'Dust Bowl.' Its severity, demonstrated by extreme aerosol optical depth in the atmosphere in the 99th percentile compared to historical data, was attributed to the ongoing regional conflict. However, surface meteorological and remote sensing data, as well as regional climate model simulations, support an alternative hypothesis: the historically unprecedented aridity played a more prominent role, as evidenced by unusual climatic and meteorological conditions prior to and during the storm. Remotely sensed normalized difference vegetation index demonstrates that vegetation covermore » was high in 2015 relative to the prior drought and conflict periods, suggesting that agricultural activity was not diminished during that year, thus negating the media narrative. Instead, meteorological simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model show that the storm was associated with a cyclone and 'Shamal' winds, typical for dust storm generation in this region, that were immediately followed by an unusual wind reversal at low levels that spread dust west to the Mediterranean Coast. These unusual meteorological conditions were aided by a significant reduction in the critical shear stress due to extreme dry and hot conditions, thereby enhancing dust availability for erosion during this storm. Concluding, unusual aridity, combined with unique synoptic weather patterns, enhanced dust emission and westward long-range transport across the region, thus generating the extreme storm.« less

Climate, not conflict, explains extreme Middle East dust storm

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Parolari, Anthony J.; Li, Dan; Bou-Zeid, Elie

The recent dust storm in the Middle East (Sepember 2015) was publicized in the media as a sign of an impending 'Dust Bowl.' Its severity, demonstrated by extreme aerosol optical depth in the atmosphere in the 99th percentile compared to historical data, was attributed to the ongoing regional conflict. However, surface meteorological and remote sensing data, as well as regional climate model simulations, support an alternative hypothesis: the historically unprecedented aridity played a more prominent role, as evidenced by unusual climatic and meteorological conditions prior to and during the storm. Remotely sensed normalized difference vegetation index demonstrates that vegetation covermore » was high in 2015 relative to the prior drought and conflict periods, suggesting that agricultural activity was not diminished during that year, thus negating the media narrative. Instead, meteorological simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model show that the storm was associated with a cyclone and 'Shamal' winds, typical for dust storm generation in this region, that were immediately followed by an unusual wind reversal at low levels that spread dust west to the Mediterranean Coast. These unusual meteorological conditions were aided by a significant reduction in the critical shear stress due to extreme dry and hot conditions, thereby enhancing dust availability for erosion during this storm. Concluding, unusual aridity, combined with unique synoptic weather patterns, enhanced dust emission and westward long-range transport across the region, thus generating the extreme storm.« less

Sensitivity of Turbine-Height Wind Speeds to Parameters in Planetary Boundary-Layer and Surface-Layer Schemes in the Weather Research and Forecasting Model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yang, Ben; Qian, Yun; Berg, Larry K.

We evaluate the sensitivity of simulated turbine-height winds to 26 parameters applied in a planetary boundary layer (PBL) scheme and a surface layer scheme of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model over an area of complex terrain during the Columbia Basin Wind Energy Study. An efficient sampling algorithm and a generalized linear model are used to explore the multiple-dimensional parameter space and quantify the parametric sensitivity of modeled turbine-height winds. The results indicate that most of the variability in the ensemble simulations is contributed by parameters related to the dissipation of the turbulence kinetic energy (TKE), Prandtl number, turbulencemore » length scales, surface roughness, and the von Kármán constant. The relative contributions of individual parameters are found to be dependent on both the terrain slope and atmospheric stability. The parameter associated with the TKE dissipation rate is found to be the most important one, and a larger dissipation rate can produce larger hub-height winds. A larger Prandtl number results in weaker nighttime winds. Increasing surface roughness reduces the frequencies of both extremely weak and strong winds, implying a reduction in the variability of the wind speed. All of the above parameters can significantly affect the vertical profiles of wind speed, the altitude of the low-level jet and the magnitude of the wind shear strength. The wind direction is found to be modulated by the same subset of influential parameters. Remainder of abstract is in attachment.« less

Climate forecasting services: coming down from the ivory tower

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Doblas-Reyes, F. J.; Caron, L. P.; Cortesi, N.; Soret, A.; Torralba, V.; Turco, M.; González Reviriego, N.; Jiménez, I.; Terrado, M.

2016-12-01

Subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) climate forecasts are increasingly used across a range of application areas (energy, water management, agriculture, health, insurance) through tailored services using the climate services paradigm. In this contribution we show the value of climate forecasting services through several examples of their application in the energy, reinsurance and agriculture sectors. Climate services aim at making climate information action oriented. In a climate forecasting context the task starts with the identification of climate variables, thresholds and events relevant to the users. These elements are then analysed to determine whether they can be both reliably and skilfully predicted at appropriate time scales. In this contribution we assess climate predictions of precipitation, temperature and wind indices from state-of-the-art operational multi-model forecast systems and if they respond to the expectations and requests from a range of users. This requires going beyond the more traditional assessment of monthly mean values to include assessments of global forecast quality of the frequency of warm, cold, windy and wet extremes (e.g. [1], [2]), as well as of using tools like the Euro-Atlantic weather regimes [3]. The forecast quality of extremes is generally similar to or slightly lower than that of monthly or seasonal averages, but offers a kind of information closer to what some users require. In addition to considering local climate variables, we also explore the use of large-scale climate indices, such as ENSO and NAO, that are associated with large regional synchronous variations of wind or tropical storm frequency. These indices help illustrating the relative merits of climate forecast information to users and are the cornerstone of climate stories that engage them in the co-production of climate information. [1] Doblas-Reyes et al, WIREs, 2013 [2] Pepler et al, Weather and Climate Extremes, 2015 [3] Pavan and Doblas-Reyes, Clim Dyn, 2013

The spatial domain of wildfire risk and response in the wildland urban interface in Sydney, Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Price, O. F.; Bradstock, R. A.

2013-12-01

In order to quantify the risks from fire at the wildland urban interface (WUI), it is important to understand where fires occur and their likelihood of spreading to the WUI. For each of the 999 fires in the Sydney region we calculated the distance between the ignition and the WUI, the fire's weather and wind direction and whether it spread to the WUI. The likelihood of burning the WUI was analysed using binomial regression. Weather and distance interacted such that under mild weather conditions, the model predicted only a 5% chance that a fire starting >2.5 km from the interface would reach it, whereas when the conditions are extreme the predicted chance remained above 30% even at distances >10 km. Fires were more likely to spread to the WUI if the wind was from the west and in the western side of the region. We examined whether the management responses to wildfires are commensurate with risk by comparing the distribution of distance to the WUI of wildfires with roads and prescribed fires. Prescribed fires and roads were concentrated nearer to the WUI than wildfires as a whole, but further away than wildfires that burnt the WUI under extreme weather conditions (high risk fires). Overall, 79% of these high risk fires started within 2 km of the WUI, so there is some argument for concentrating more management effort near the WUI. By substituting climate change scenario weather into the statistical model, we predicted a small increase in the risk of fires spreading to the WUI, but the increase will be greater under extreme weather. This approach has a variety of uses, including mapping fire risk and improving the ability to match fire management responses to the threat from each fire. They also provide a baseline from which a cost-benefit analysis of complementary fire management strategies can be conducted.

The spatial domain of wildfire risk and response in the Wildland Urban Interface in Sydney, Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Price, O. F.; Bradstock, R. A.

2013-09-01

In order to quantify the risks from fire at the Wildland Urban Interface (WUI), it is important to understand where fires occur and their likelihood of spreading to the WUI. For each of 999 fires in the Sydney region we calculated the distance between the ignition and the WUI, the fire weather and wind direction and whether it spread to the WUI. The likelihood of burning the WUI was analysed using binomial regression. Weather and distance interacted such that under mild weather conditions, the model predicted only a 5% chance that a fire starting more than 2.5 km from the interface would reach it, whereas when the conditions are extreme the predicted chance remained above 30% even at distances further than 10 km. Fires were more likely to spread to the WUI if the wind was from the west and in the western side of the region. We examined whether the management responses to wildfires are commensurate with risk by comparing the distribution of distance to the WUI of wildfires with roads and prescribed fires. Prescribed fires and roads were concentrated nearer to the WUI than wildfires as a whole, but further away than wildfires that burnt the WUI under extreme weather conditions (high risk fires). 79% of these high risk fires started within 2 km of the WUI, so there is some argument for concentrating more management effort near the WUI. By substituting climate change scenario weather into the statistical model, we predicted a small increase in the risk of fires spreading to the WUI, but the increase will be greater under extreme weather. This approach has a variety of uses, including mapping fire risk and improving the ability to match fire management responses to the threat from each fire. They also provide a baseline from which a cost-benefit analysis of complementary fire management strategies can be conducted.

Extreme value analysis of the time derivative of the horizontal magnetic field and computed electric field

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wintoft, Peter; Viljanen, Ari; Wik, Magnus

2016-05-01

High-frequency ( ≈ minutes) variability of ground magnetic fields is caused by ionospheric and magnetospheric processes driven by the changing solar wind. The varying magnetic fields induce electrical fields that cause currents to flow in man-made conductors like power grids and pipelines. Under extreme conditions the geomagnetically induced currents (GIC) may be harmful to the power grids. Increasing our understanding of the extreme events is thus important for solar-terrestrial science and space weather. In this work 1-min resolution of the time derivative of measured local magnetic fields (|dBh/dt|) and computed electrical fields (Eh), for locations in Europe, have been analysed with extreme value analysis (EVA). The EVA results in an estimate of the generalized extreme value probability distribution that is described by three parameters: location, width, and shape. The shape parameter controls the extreme behaviour. The stations cover geomagnetic latitudes from 40 to 70° N. All stations included in the study have contiguous coverage of 18 years or more with 1-min resolution data. As expected, the EVA shows that the higher latitude stations have higher probability of large |dBh/dt| and |Eh| compared to stations further south. However, the EVA also shows that the shape of the distribution changes with magnetic latitude. The high latitudes have distributions that fall off faster to zero than the low latitudes, and upward bounded distributions can not be ruled out. The transition occurs around 59-61° N magnetic latitudes. Thus, the EVA shows that the observed series north of ≈ 60° N have already measured values that are close to the expected maxima values, while stations south of ≈ ° N will measure larger values in the future.

Evaluation of the HadGEM3-A simulations in view of detection and attribution of human influence on extreme events in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vautard, Robert; Christidis, Nikolaos; Ciavarella, Andrew; Alvarez-Castro, Carmen; Bellprat, Omar; Christiansen, Bo; Colfescu, Ioana; Cowan, Tim; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco; Eden, Jonathan; Hauser, Mathias; Hegerl, Gabriele; Hempelmann, Nils; Klehmet, Katharina; Lott, Fraser; Nangini, Cathy; Orth, René; Radanovics, Sabine; Seneviratne, Sonia I.; van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan; Stott, Peter; Tett, Simon; Wilcox, Laura; Yiou, Pascal

2018-04-01

A detailed analysis is carried out to assess the HadGEM3-A global atmospheric model skill in simulating extreme temperatures, precipitation and storm surges in Europe in the view of their attribution to human influence. The analysis is performed based on an ensemble of 15 atmospheric simulations forced with observed sea surface temperature of the 54 year period 1960-2013. These simulations, together with dual simulations without human influence in the forcing, are intended to be used in weather and climate event attribution. The analysis investigates the main processes leading to extreme events, including atmospheric circulation patterns, their links with temperature extremes, land-atmosphere and troposphere-stratosphere interactions. It also compares observed and simulated variability, trends and generalized extreme value theory parameters for temperature and precipitation. One of the most striking findings is the ability of the model to capture North-Atlantic atmospheric weather regimes as obtained from a cluster analysis of sea level pressure fields. The model also reproduces the main observed weather patterns responsible for temperature and precipitation extreme events. However, biases are found in many physical processes. Slightly excessive drying may be the cause of an overestimated summer interannual variability and too intense heat waves, especially in central/northern Europe. However, this does not seem to hinder proper simulation of summer temperature trends. Cold extremes appear well simulated, as well as the underlying blocking frequency and stratosphere-troposphere interactions. Extreme precipitation amounts are overestimated and too variable. The atmospheric conditions leading to storm surges were also examined in the Baltics region. There, simulated weather conditions appear not to be leading to strong enough storm surges, but winds were found in very good agreement with reanalyses. The performance in reproducing atmospheric weather patterns indicates that biases mainly originate from local and regional physical processes. This makes local bias adjustment meaningful for climate change attribution.

MAVEN observations of the solar cycle 24 space weather conditions at Mars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, C. O.; Hara, T.; Halekas, J. S.; Thiemann, E.; Chamberlin, P.; Eparvier, F.; Lillis, R. J.; Larson, D. E.; Dunn, P. A.; Espley, J. R.; Gruesbeck, J.; Curry, S. M.; Luhmann, J. G.; Jakosky, B. M.

2017-03-01

The Mars Atmosphere and Volatile EvolutioN (MAVEN) spacecraft has been continuously observing the variability of solar soft X-rays and EUV irradiance, monitoring the upstream solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field conditions and measuring the fluxes of solar energetic ions and electrons since its arrival to Mars. In this paper, we provide a comprehensive overview of the space weather events observed during the first ˜1.9 years of the science mission, which includes the description of the solar and heliospheric sources of the space weather activity. To illustrate the variety of upstream conditions observed, we characterize a subset of the event periods by describing the Sun-to-Mars details using observations from the MAVEN solar Extreme Ultraviolet Monitor, solar energetic particle (SEP) instrument, Solar Wind Ion Analyzer, and Magnetometer together with solar observations using near-Earth assets and numerical solar wind simulation results from the Wang-Sheeley-Arge-Enlil model for some global context of the event periods. The subset of events includes an extensive period of intense SEP electron particle fluxes triggered by a series of solar flares and coronal mass ejection (CME) activity in December 2014, the impact by a succession of interplanetary CMEs and their associated SEPs in March 2015, and the passage of a strong corotating interaction region (CIR) and arrival of the CIR shock-accelerated energetic particles in June 2015. However, in the context of the weaker heliospheric conditions observed throughout solar cycle 24, these events were moderate in comparison to the stronger storms observed previously at Mars.

Oxygen Loss from Venus and the Influence of Extreme Solar Wind Conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McEnulty, Tess Rose

2012-06-01

The purpose of this dissertation is to expand our understanding of oxygen ion escape to space from Venus and its dependence on extreme solar wind conditions found during interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs). The solar wind dynamic pressure outside of the Venus bow shock did not exceed ˜12 nPa, during 2006-2009, while the solar wind dynamic pressure was higher than this for ˜10% of the time during the PVO mission. Oxygen ions escape Venus through multiple regions near the planet. One of these regions is the magnetosheath, where high energy pick-up ions are accelerated by the solar wind convection electric field. High energy (>1 keV) O+ pick-up ions within the Venus magnetosheath reached higher energy at lower altitude when the solar wind was disturbed by ICMEs compared to pick-up ions when the external solar wind was not disturbed, between 2006-2007. However, the count rate of O+ was not obviously affected by the ICMEs during this time period. In addition to high energy pick-up ions, VEX also detects low energy (˜10-100 eV) O+ within the ionosphere and wake of Venus. These low energy oxygen ions are difficult to interpret, because the spacecraft's relative velocity and potential can significantly affect the measured energy. If VEX ion data is not corrected for the spacecraft's relative velocity and potential, gravitationally bound O+ could be misinterpreted as escaping. These gravitationally bound oxygen ions can extend on the nightside to ˜-2 Venus radii and may even return to the planet after reaching high altitudes in the wake. Gravitationally bound ions will lower the total O+ escape estimated from Venus if total escape is calculated including these ions. However, if the return flux is low compared to the total escaping outflow, this effect is not significant. An ICME with a dynamic pressure of 17.6 nPa impacted Venus on November 11, 2011. During this ICME, the high energy pick-up O+ and the low energy O+ ions were affected. Oxygen ions in the magnetosheath, ionosphere, and tail had higher energies during the ICME, compared to O + energies when the external solar wind conditions were undisturbed. High energy ions were escaping within the dayside magnetosheath region when the ICME was passing as well as when the solar wind was undisturbed. However, during the ICME passage, these O+ ions had three orders of magnitude higher counts. The low energy O+ during the undisturbed days was gravitationally bound, while during the ICME a portion of the low energy ions were likely escaping. The most significant difference in O + during the ICME was high energy pickup ions measured in the wake on the outbound portion of the orbit. These ions had an escape flux of 2.5 X 108 O+cm-2sec-1, which is higher than the average escape flux in all regions of the wake. In addition, the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) was in a configuration that may have rotated an even higher escape flux O+ away from the VEX orbit. This needs to be confirmed with sampling of other regions in the wake during large ICMEs. A lower bound on the total O+ escape during this event could be ˜2.8 X1026 to 6.5 X 1027 O +/sec, which is 2-3 orders of magnitude higher than the average escape flux measured by VEX. Hence, ICMEs could have played a major role in the total escape of O+ from Venus. The results presented in this dissertation can be used as a guide for future studies of O+ escape at Venus. As we move into solar maximum, Venus will likely be impacted by more large ICMEs. The ICME from the last study of this dissertation was the largest yet measured by VEX, but its 17.6 nPa dynamic pressure is lower than the largest ICMEs during the PVO time period (˜ 80 nPa). The work in this dissertation is also relevant to Mars, since Mars interacts with the solar wind in a similar manner and has analogous ion escape mechanisms. The upcoming MAVEN (Mars Atmosphere and Volatile Evolution) mission will launch at the end of 2013 to study the Martian atmosphere, escape processes, and history of volatiles. This mission will have an in-situ ion instrument and magnetometer similar to those used for the studies in this dissertation, so one could conduct similar studies of the oxygen ion escape from Mars during extreme solar wind conditions. (Abstract shortened by UMI.)

Complex terrain experiments in the New European Wind Atlas.

PubMed

Mann, J; Angelou, N; Arnqvist, J; Callies, D; Cantero, E; Arroyo, R Chávez; Courtney, M; Cuxart, J; Dellwik, E; Gottschall, J; Ivanell, S; Kühn, P; Lea, G; Matos, J C; Palma, J M L M; Pauscher, L; Peña, A; Rodrigo, J Sanz; Söderberg, S; Vasiljevic, N; Rodrigues, C Veiga

2017-04-13

The New European Wind Atlas project will create a freely accessible wind atlas covering Europe and Turkey, develop the model chain to create the atlas and perform a series of experiments on flow in many different kinds of complex terrain to validate the models. This paper describes the experiments of which some are nearly completed while others are in the planning stage. All experiments focus on the flow properties that are relevant for wind turbines, so the main focus is the mean flow and the turbulence at heights between 40 and 300 m. Also extreme winds, wind shear and veer, and diurnal and seasonal variations of the wind are of interest. Common to all the experiments is the use of Doppler lidar systems to supplement and in some cases replace completely meteorological towers. Many of the lidars will be equipped with scan heads that will allow for arbitrary scan patterns by several synchronized systems. Two pilot experiments, one in Portugal and one in Germany, show the value of using multiple synchronized, scanning lidar, both in terms of the accuracy of the measurements and the atmospheric physical processes that can be studied. The experimental data will be used for validation of atmospheric flow models and will by the end of the project be freely available.This article is part of the themed issue 'Wind energy in complex terrains'. © 2017 The Authors.

Sensitivity of turbine-height wind speeds to parameters in planetary boundary-layer and surface-layer schemes in the weather research and forecasting model

DOE PAGES

Yang, Ben; Qian, Yun; Berg, Larry K.; ...

2016-07-21

We evaluate the sensitivity of simulated turbine-height wind speeds to 26 parameters within the Mellor–Yamada–Nakanishi–Niino (MYNN) planetary boundary-layer scheme and MM5 surface-layer scheme of the Weather Research and Forecasting model over an area of complex terrain. An efficient sampling algorithm and generalized linear model are used to explore the multiple-dimensional parameter space and quantify the parametric sensitivity of simulated turbine-height wind speeds. The results indicate that most of the variability in the ensemble simulations is due to parameters related to the dissipation of turbulent kinetic energy (TKE), Prandtl number, turbulent length scales, surface roughness, and the von Kármán constant. Themore » parameter associated with the TKE dissipation rate is found to be most important, and a larger dissipation rate produces larger hub-height wind speeds. A larger Prandtl number results in smaller nighttime wind speeds. Increasing surface roughness reduces the frequencies of both extremely weak and strong airflows, implying a reduction in the variability of wind speed. All of the above parameters significantly affect the vertical profiles of wind speed and the magnitude of wind shear. Lastly, the relative contributions of individual parameters are found to be dependent on both the terrain slope and atmospheric stability.« less

Complex terrain experiments in the New European Wind Atlas

PubMed Central

Angelou, N.; Callies, D.; Cantero, E.; Arroyo, R. Chávez; Courtney, M.; Cuxart, J.; Dellwik, E.; Gottschall, J.; Ivanell, S.; Kühn, P.; Lea, G.; Matos, J. C.; Palma, J. M. L. M.; Peña, A.; Rodrigo, J. Sanz; Söderberg, S.; Vasiljevic, N.; Rodrigues, C. Veiga

2017-01-01

The New European Wind Atlas project will create a freely accessible wind atlas covering Europe and Turkey, develop the model chain to create the atlas and perform a series of experiments on flow in many different kinds of complex terrain to validate the models. This paper describes the experiments of which some are nearly completed while others are in the planning stage. All experiments focus on the flow properties that are relevant for wind turbines, so the main focus is the mean flow and the turbulence at heights between 40 and 300 m. Also extreme winds, wind shear and veer, and diurnal and seasonal variations of the wind are of interest. Common to all the experiments is the use of Doppler lidar systems to supplement and in some cases replace completely meteorological towers. Many of the lidars will be equipped with scan heads that will allow for arbitrary scan patterns by several synchronized systems. Two pilot experiments, one in Portugal and one in Germany, show the value of using multiple synchronized, scanning lidar, both in terms of the accuracy of the measurements and the atmospheric physical processes that can be studied. The experimental data will be used for validation of atmospheric flow models and will by the end of the project be freely available. This article is part of the themed issue ‘Wind energy in complex terrains’. PMID:28265025

Sensitivity of turbine-height wind speeds to parameters in planetary boundary-layer and surface-layer schemes in the weather research and forecasting model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yang, Ben; Qian, Yun; Berg, Larry K.

We evaluate the sensitivity of simulated turbine-height wind speeds to 26 parameters within the Mellor–Yamada–Nakanishi–Niino (MYNN) planetary boundary-layer scheme and MM5 surface-layer scheme of the Weather Research and Forecasting model over an area of complex terrain. An efficient sampling algorithm and generalized linear model are used to explore the multiple-dimensional parameter space and quantify the parametric sensitivity of simulated turbine-height wind speeds. The results indicate that most of the variability in the ensemble simulations is due to parameters related to the dissipation of turbulent kinetic energy (TKE), Prandtl number, turbulent length scales, surface roughness, and the von Kármán constant. Themore » parameter associated with the TKE dissipation rate is found to be most important, and a larger dissipation rate produces larger hub-height wind speeds. A larger Prandtl number results in smaller nighttime wind speeds. Increasing surface roughness reduces the frequencies of both extremely weak and strong airflows, implying a reduction in the variability of wind speed. All of the above parameters significantly affect the vertical profiles of wind speed and the magnitude of wind shear. Lastly, the relative contributions of individual parameters are found to be dependent on both the terrain slope and atmospheric stability.« less

Black hole winds II: Hyper-Eddington winds and feedback

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

King, Andrew; Muldrew, Stuart I.

2016-01-01

We show that black holes supplied with mass at hyper-Eddington rates drive outflows with mildly sub-relativistic velocities. These are ˜0.1-0.2c for Eddington accretion factors {dot{m}_acc}˜ 10-100, and ˜1500 km s-1 for {dot{m}_acc}˜ 10^4. Winds like this are seen in the X-ray spectra of ultraluminous sources (ULXs), strongly supporting the view that ULXs are stellar-mass compact binaries in hyper-Eddington accretion states. SS433 appears to be an extreme ULX system ({dot{m}_acc}˜ 10^4) viewed from outside the main X-ray emission cone. For less-extreme Eddington factors {dot{m}_acc}˜ 10-100 the photospheric temperatures of the winds are ˜100 eV, consistent with the picture that the ultraluminous supersoft sources (ULSs) are ULXs seen outside the medium-energy X-ray beam, unifying the ULX/ULS populations and SS433 (actually a ULS but with photospheric emission too soft to detect). For supermassive black holes (SMBHs), feedback from hyper-Eddington accretion is significantly more powerful than the usual near-Eddington (`UFO') case, and if realized in nature would imply M - σ masses noticeably smaller than observed. We suggest that the likely warping of the accretion disc in such cases may lead to much of the disc mass being expelled, severely reducing the incidence of such strong feedback. We show that hyper-Eddington feedback from bright ULXs can have major effects on their host galaxies. This is likely to have important consequences for the formation and survival of small galaxies.

Global distribution of the He+ column density observed by Extreme Ultra Violet Imager on the International Space Station

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hozumi, Yuta; Saito, Akinori; Yoshikawa, Ichiro; Yamazaki, Atsushi; Murakami, Go; Yoshioka, Kazuo; Chen, Chia-Hung

2017-07-01

The global distribution of He+ in the topside ionosphere was investigated using data of the He+ resonant scattering emission at 30.4 nm obtained by the Extreme Ultra Violet Imager (EUVI) onboard the International Space Station. The optical observation by EUVI from the low-Earth orbit provides He+ column density data above the altitude of 400 km, presenting a unique opportunity to study the He+ distribution with a different perspective from that of past studies using data from in situ measurements. We analyzed data taken in 2013 and elucidated, for the first time, the seasonal, longitudinal, and latitudinal variations of the He+ column density in the dusk sector. It was found that the He+ column density in the winter hemisphere was about twice that in the summer hemisphere. In the December solstice season, the magnitude of this hemispheric asymmetry was large (small) in the longitudinal sector where the geomagnetic declination is eastward (westward). In the June solstice season, this relationship between the He+ distribution and the geomagnetic declination is reversed. In the equinox seasons, the He+ column densities in the two hemispheres are comparable at most longitudes. The seasonal and longitudinal dependence of the hemispheric asymmetry of the He+ distribution was attributed to the geomagnetic meridional neutral wind in the F region ionosphere. The neutral wind effect on the He+ distribution was examined with an empirical neutral wind model, and it was confirmed that the transport of ions in the topside ionosphere is predominantly affected by the F region neutral wind and the geomagnetic configuration.

Projected future wave climate in the NW Mediterranean Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Casas-Prat, M.; Sierra, J. P.

2013-07-01

Projected future regional wave climate scenarios at a high temporal-spatial scale were obtained for the NW Mediterranean Sea, using five combinations of regional-global circulation models. Changes in wave variables were analyzed and related to the variations of the forcing wind projections, while also evaluating the evolution of the presence of the different types of sea states. To assess the significance of the changes produced, a bootstrap-based method was proposed, which accounts for the autocorrelation of data and correctly reproduces the extremes. For the mean climate, relative changes of Hs up to ±10% were obtained, whereas they were around ±20% for the extreme climate. In mean terms, variations of Hs are similar to those associated with wind speed but are enhanced/attenuated, respectively, when fetch conditions are favorable/unfavorable. In general, most notable alterations are not in the Hs magnitude but rather in its direction. In this regard, during the winter season, it is interesting to note that the significant deviations between the results derived from the two global circulation models are larger than those between regional models. ECHAM5 simulated an enhanced west wind flow that is translated into more frequent W-NW waves, whereas the HadCM3Q3 global model gives rise to the east component, which contributes to a higher intensity and number of storms coming from such a direction and directly affects the wind-sea/swell distribution of coastal stretches that face east, like the Catalan coast. Different patterns of change were obtained during the summer when a common rise of NE-E waves was found.

Military Performance and Health Monitoring in Extreme Environments

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-10-01

radiation and wind to give a true temperature reading . At high ambient temperatures, in particular in combination with solar radiation, objects may...Equivital multi-sensor unit enabling the real-time, parallel and continuous assessment of EKG (and heart rate), respiration (and respiration rate), skin

Space-time extreme wind waves: Observation and analysis of shapes and heights

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Benetazzo, Alvise; Barbariol, Francesco; Bergamasco, Filippo; Carniel, Sandro; Sclavo, Mauro

2016-04-01

We analyze here the temporal shape and the maximal height of extreme wind waves, which were obtained from an observational space-time sample of sea surface elevations during a mature and short-crested sea state (Benetazzo et al., 2015). Space-time wave data are processed to detect the largest waves of specific 3-D wave groups close to the apex of their development. First, maximal elevations of the groups are discussed within the framework of space-time (ST) extreme statistical models of random wave fields (Adler and Taylor, 2007; Benetazzo et al., 2015; Fedele, 2012). Results of ST models are also compared with observations and predictions of maxima based on time series of sea surface elevations. Second, the time profile of the extreme waves around the maximal crest height is analyzed and compared with the expectations of the linear (Boccotti, 1983) and second-order nonlinear extension (Arena, 2005) of the Quasi-Determinism (QD) theory. Main purpose is to verify to what extent, using the QD model results, one can estimate the shape and the crest-to-trough height of large waves in a random ST wave field. From the results presented, it emerges that, apart from the displacements around the crest apex, sea surface elevations of very high waves are greatly dispersed around a mean profile. Yet the QD model furnishes, on average, a fair prediction of the wave height of the maximal waves, especially when nonlinearities are taken into account. Moreover, the combination of ST and QD model predictions allow establishing, for a given sea condition, a framework for the representation of waves with very large crest heights. The results have also the potential to be implemented in a phase-averaged numerical wave model (see abstract EGU2016-14008 and Barbariol et al., 2015). - Adler, R.J., Taylor, J.E., 2007. Random fields and geometry. Springer, New York (USA), 448 pp. - Arena, F., 2005. On non-linear very large sea wave groups. Ocean Eng. 32, 1311-1331. - Barbariol, F., Alves, J.H.G.., Benetazzo, A., Bergamasco, F., Bertotti, L., Carniel, S., Cavaleri, L., Chao, Y.Y., Chawla, A., Ricchi, A., Sclavo, M., Tolman, H., 2015. Space-Time Wave Extremes in WAVEWATCH III: Implementation and Validation for the Adriatic Sea Case Study, in: 14th International Workshop on Wave Hindcasting and Forecasting. November, 8-13, Key West, Florida (USA). - Benetazzo, A., Barbariol, F., Bergamasco, F., Torsello, A., Carniel, S., Sclavo, M., 2015. Observation of extreme sea waves in a space-time ensemble. J. Phys. Oceanogr. 45, 2261-2275. - Boccotti, P., 1983. Some new results on statistical properties of wind waves. Appl. Ocean Res. 5, 134-140. - Fedele, F., 2012. Space-Time Extremes in Short-Crested Storm Seas. J. Phys. Oceanogr. 42, 1601-1615.

The effect of wind tunnel wall interference on the performance of a fan-in-wing VTOL model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Heyson, H. H.

1974-01-01

A fan-in-wing model with a 1.07-meter span was tested in seven different test sections with cross-sectional areas ranging from 2.2 sq meters to 265 sq meters. The data from the different test sections are compared both with and without correction for wall interference. The results demonstrate that extreme care must be used in interpreting uncorrected VTOL data since the wall interference may be so large as to invalidate even trends in the data. The wall interference is particularly large at the tail, a result which is in agreement with recently published comparisons of flight and large scale wind tunnel data for a propeller-driven deflected-slipstream configuration. The data verify the wall-interference theory even under conditions of extreme interference. A method yields reasonable estimates for the onset of Rae's minimum-speed limit. The rules for choosing model sizes to produce negligible wall effects are considerably in error and permit the use of excessively large models.

Impact of surface coupling grids on tropical cyclone extremes in high-resolution atmospheric simulations

DOE PAGES

Zarzycki, Colin M.; Reed, Kevin A.; Bacmeister, Julio T.; ...

2016-02-25

This article discusses the sensitivity of tropical cyclone climatology to surface coupling strategy in high-resolution configurations of the Community Earth System Model. Using two supported model setups, we demonstrate that the choice of grid on which the lowest model level wind stress and surface fluxes are computed may lead to differences in cyclone strength in multi-decadal climate simulations, particularly for the most intense cyclones. Using a deterministic framework, we show that when these surface quantities are calculated on an ocean grid that is coarser than the atmosphere, the computed frictional stress is misaligned with wind vectors in individual atmospheric gridmore » cells. This reduces the effective surface drag, and results in more intense cyclones when compared to a model configuration where the ocean and atmosphere are of equivalent resolution. Our results demonstrate that the choice of computation grid for atmosphere–ocean interactions is non-negligible when considering climate extremes at high horizontal resolution, especially when model components are on highly disparate grids.« less

Assessing Flood Risk Under Sea Level Rise and Extreme Sea Levels Scenarios: Application to the Ebro Delta (Spain)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sayol, J. M.; Marcos, M.

2018-02-01

This study presents a novel methodology to estimate the impact of local sea level rise and extreme surges and waves in coastal areas under climate change scenarios. The methodology is applied to the Ebro Delta, a valuable and vulnerable low-lying wetland located in the northwestern Mediterranean Sea. Projections of local sea level accounting for all contributions to mean sea level changes, including thermal expansion, dynamic changes, fresh water addition and glacial isostatic adjustment, have been obtained from regionalized sea level projections during the 21st century. Particular attention has been paid to the uncertainties, which have been derived from the spread of the multi-model ensemble combined with seasonal/inter-annual sea level variability from local tide gauge observations. Besides vertical land movements have also been integrated to estimate local relative sea level rise. On the other hand, regional projections over the Mediterranean basin of storm surges and wind-waves have been used to evaluate changes in extreme events. The compound effects of surges and extreme waves have been quantified using their joint probability distributions. Finally, offshore sea level projections from extreme events superimposed to mean sea level have been propagated onto a high resolution digital elevation model of the study region in order to construct flood hazards maps for mid and end of the 21st century and under two different climate change scenarios. The effect of each contribution has been evaluated in terms of percentage of the area exposed to coastal hazards, which will help to design more efficient protection and adaptation measures.

Advances in the Assessment of Wind Turbine Operating Extreme Loads via More Efficient Calculation Approaches

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Graf, Peter; Damiani, Rick R.; Dykes, Katherine

2017-01-09

A new adaptive stratified importance sampling (ASIS) method is proposed as an alternative approach for the calculation of the 50 year extreme load under operational conditions, as in design load case 1.1 of the the International Electrotechnical Commission design standard. ASIS combines elements of the binning and extrapolation technique, currently described by the standard, and of the importance sampling (IS) method to estimate load probability of exceedances (POEs). Whereas a Monte Carlo (MC) approach would lead to the sought level of POE with a daunting number of simulations, IS-based techniques are promising as they target the sampling of the inputmore » parameters on the parts of the distributions that are most responsible for the extreme loads, thus reducing the number of runs required. We compared the various methods on select load channels as output from FAST, an aero-hydro-servo-elastic tool for the design and analysis of wind turbines developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). Our newly devised method, although still in its infancy in terms of tuning of the subparameters, is comparable to the others in terms of load estimation and its variance versus computational cost, and offers great promise going forward due to the incorporation of adaptivity into the already powerful importance sampling concept.« less

A Reconnaissance of the 900-1200 A Spectra of Early O Stars in the Magellanic Clouds

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Walborn, Nolan

1999-01-01

Far-UV spectrograms of ten very hot stars in the Magellanic Clouds were obtained with the Hopkins Ultraviolet Telescope during the Astro-2 mission in March 1995. Very few normal OB stars were observed during Astro-1, and the only significant prior sample of such objects in this wavelength range was that obtained by Copernicus of stars near the Sun. The Magellanic Cloud sample offers the advantages of low reddening, a range in metallicity, and more extreme temperatures and luminosities than represented in the near solar neighborhood. Several interesting phenomena were found in the HUT MC sample, including very strong O VI wind profiles in O3 spectra; anomalous CNO wind features corresponding to abundances altered by stellar nucleosynthesis; weak wind features due to the metal deficiency of the Small Magellanic Cloud; and interstellar molecular hydrogen features originating in the MCs. The results were presented and discussed as a small atlas, and they were shown at the Pittsburgh AAS meeting in June 1995. A correlative atlas of Copernicus data was also prepared and published under the auspices of this grant. These publications will serve as resources for the characterization of the FUSE observations of related objects to hopefully be obtained soon. I believe that the large differences among the strong wind features in the HUT data, corresponding to CNO and systemic metallicity effects, are amenable to some relative quantitative analysis, and I shall endeavor to promote such in conjunction with HST data at longer wavelengths for the same stars (which has also not yet been completely analyzed) at a future opportunity.

Modeling the performance of direct-detection Doppler lidar systems including cloud and solar background variability.

PubMed

McGill, M J; Hart, W D; McKay, J A; Spinhirne, J D

1999-10-20

Previous modeling of the performance of spaceborne direct-detection Doppler lidar systems assumed extremely idealized atmospheric models. Here we develop a technique for modeling the performance of these systems in a more realistic atmosphere, based on actual airborne lidar observations. The resulting atmospheric model contains cloud and aerosol variability that is absent in other simulations of spaceborne Doppler lidar instruments. To produce a realistic simulation of daytime performance, we include solar radiance values that are based on actual measurements and are allowed to vary as the viewing scene changes. Simulations are performed for two types of direct-detection Doppler lidar system: the double-edge and the multichannel techniques. Both systems were optimized to measure winds from Rayleigh backscatter at 355 nm. Simulations show that the measurement uncertainty during daytime is degraded by only approximately 10-20% compared with nighttime performance, provided that a proper solar filter is included in the instrument design.

Changing monsoon and midlatitude circulation interactions over the Western Himalayas and possible links to occurrences of extreme precipitation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Priya, P.; Krishnan, R.; Mujumdar, Milind

Historical rainfall records reveal that the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events, during the summer monsoon (June to September) season, have significantly risen over the Western Himalayas (WH) and adjoining upper Indus basin since 1950s. Using multiple datasets, the present study investigates the possible coincidences between an increasing trend of precipitation extremes over WH and changes in background flow climatology. The present findings suggest that the combined effects of a weakened southwest monsoon circulation, increased activity of transient upper-air westerly troughs over the WH region, enhanced moisture supply by southerly winds from the Arabian Sea into the Indus basinmore » have likely provided favorable conditions for an increased frequency of certain types of extreme precipitation events over the WH region in recent decades.« less

Reconstructing extreme AMOC events through nudging of the ocean surface: a perfect model approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ortega, Pablo; Guilyardi, Eric; Swingedouw, Didier; Mignot, Juliette; Nguyen, Sébastien

2017-11-01

While the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is thought to be a crucial component of the North Atlantic climate, past changes in its strength are challenging to quantify, and only limited information is available. In this study, we use a perfect model approach with the IPSL-CM5A-LR model to assess the performance of several surface nudging techniques in reconstructing the variability of the AMOC. Special attention is given to the reproducibility of an extreme positive AMOC peak from a preindustrial control simulation. Nudging includes standard relaxation techniques towards the sea surface temperature and salinity anomalies of this target control simulation, and/or the prescription of the wind-stress fields. Surface nudging approaches using standard fixed restoring terms succeed in reproducing most of the target AMOC variability, including the timing of the extreme event, but systematically underestimate its amplitude. A detailed analysis of the AMOC variability mechanisms reveals that the underestimation of the extreme AMOC maximum comes from a deficit in the formation of the dense water masses in the main convection region, located south of Iceland in the model. This issue is largely corrected after introducing a novel surface nudging approach, which uses a varying restoring coefficient that is proportional to the simulated mixed layer depth, which, in essence, keeps the restoring time scale constant. This new technique substantially improves water mass transformation in the regions of convection, and in particular, the formation of the densest waters, which are key for the representation of the AMOC extreme. It is therefore a promising strategy that may help to better constrain the AMOC variability and other ocean features in the models. As this restoring technique only uses surface data, for which better and longer observations are available, it opens up opportunities for improved reconstructions of the AMOC over the last few decades.

Reconstructing extreme AMOC events through nudging of the ocean surface: A perfect model approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ortega, Pablo; Guilyardi, Eric; Swingedouw, Didier; Mignot, Juliette; Nguyen, Sebastien

2017-04-01

While the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is thought to be a crucial component of the North Atlantic climate and its predictability, past changes in its strength are challenging to quantify, and only limited information is available. In this study, we use a perfect model approach with the IPSL-CM5A-LR model to assess the performance of several surface nudging techniques in reconstructing the variability of the AMOC. Special attention is given to the reproducibility of an extreme positive AMOC peak from a preindustrial control simulation. Nudging includes standard relaxation techniques towards the sea surface temperature and salinity anomalies of this target control simulation, and/or the prescription of the wind-stress fields. Surface nudging approaches using standard fixed restoring terms succeed in reproducing most of the target AMOC variability, including the timing of the extreme event, but systematically underestimate its amplitude. A detailed analysis of the AMOC variability mechanisms reveals that the underestimation of the extreme AMOC maximum comes from a deficit in the formation of the dense water masses in the main convection region, located south of Iceland in the model. This issue is largely corrected after introducing a novel surface nudging approach, which uses a varying restoring coefficient that is proportional to the simulated mixed layer depth, which, in essence, keeps the restoring time scale constant. This new technique substantially improves water mass transformation in the regions of convection, and in particular, the formation of the densest waters, which are key for the representation of the AMOC extreme. It is therefore a promising strategy that may help to better initialize the AMOC variability and other ocean features in the models, and thus improve decadal climate predictions. As this restoring technique only uses surface data, for which better and longer observations are available, it opens up opportunities for improved reconstructions of the AMOC over the last few decades.

Adaptive evolutionary walks require neutral intermediates in RNA fitness landscapes.

PubMed

Rendel, Mark D

2011-01-01

In RNA fitness landscapes with interconnected networks of neutral mutations, neutral precursor mutations can play an important role in facilitating the accessibility of epistatic adaptive mutant combinations. I use an exhaustively surveyed fitness landscape model based on short sequence RNA genotypes (and their secondary structure phenotypes) to calculate the minimum rate at which mutants initially appearing as neutral are incorporated into an adaptive evolutionary walk. I show first, that incorporating neutral mutations significantly increases the number of point mutations in a given evolutionary walk when compared to estimates from previous adaptive walk models. Second, that incorporating neutral mutants into such a walk significantly increases the final fitness encountered on that walk - indeed evolutionary walks including neutral steps often reach the global optimum in this model. Third, and perhaps most importantly, evolutionary paths of this kind are often extremely winding in their nature and have the potential to undergo multiple mutations at a given sequence position within a single walk; the potential of these winding paths to mislead phylogenetic reconstruction is briefly considered. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

My winding trail while fulfilling my love for science and family.

PubMed

Orth, Kim

2018-04-11

My winding path toward a career in science was awkward, like an adolescent finding an identity. It did not follow a classic course; it had many interruptions, complications, and challenges. It also involved a bit of luck and extremely supportive colleagues, mentors, and family, including my husband, children, and in-laws. I was inspired to tell my story here because I met a young woman interviewing in 2018 for graduate school who is growing up with the same complicated family expectations, social challenges, love for science, and desire to be a scientist as I had four decades ago. Her future is uncertain, because her chosen academic path is not encouraged by those around her. We, as a society, must find ways to encourage, promote, enable, and give strength to those who want to follow their dreams despite facing many challenges in their lives. Here are some things I learned on my career path that I hope might be helpful for others. Published under license by The American Society for Biochemistry and Molecular Biology, Inc.

Aerothermoelastic Analysis of a NASP-Like Vertical Fin

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rodgers, John P.

1992-01-01

Several aeroelastic stability analyses for a vertical fin similar to that of the National Aero-Space Plane are described. The objectives of the study were to design and obtain an experimental data base for a supersonic wind-tunnel model of the fin in order to examine the effects of thermal loading on the flutter characteristics. This paper describes the preliminary efforts to design the wind-tunnel model, including several of the geometric parameter variations that were analyzed. The dominant flutter mechanism involved a flap vibration mode and a fin bending mode. Variation of the thicknesses of flap and root flexures, used to attach the flap to the fin, and the fin to a support, significantly affected the flutter boundary. Uniform thermal loads, affecting only material properties, had little effect, as did the application of different uniform temperatures to each side of the fin. In contrast, the application of significant chord-wise thermal gradients induced stresses which reduced the flutter dynamic pressure by as much as 37 percent. For less extreme distributed loading, the low-aspect ratio fin was relatively unaffected.

CFD modelling of nocturnal low-level jet effects on wind energy related variables

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sogachev, Andrey; Mann, Jakob; Dellwik, Ebba; Ejsing Jørgensen, Hans

2010-05-01

The development of a wind speed maximum in the nocturnal boundary layer, referred to as a low-level jet (LLJ), is a common feature of the vertical structure of the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL). Characterizing and understanding LLJ streams is growing in importance as wind turbines are being built larger and taller to take advantage of higher wind speeds at increased heights. We used a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model to explore LLJs effect on wind speed, wind directional and speed shear inside the surface layer 40 - 130 m, where their physical measurements are not trivial and still rare today. We used the one-dimensional version of the ABL model SCADIS (Sogachev et al. 2002: Tellus 54:784-819). The unique feature of the model, based on a two-equation closure approach, is the treatment of buoyancy effects in a universal way, which overcomes the uncertainties with model coefficients for non-shear source/sink terms (Sogachev, 2009: Boundary Layer Meteor. 130:423-435). From a variety of mechanisms suggested for formation of LLJs, such as inertial oscillations, baroclinicity over sloping terrain, and land-sea breeze effects, the one-dimensional ABL model is capable of simulating only the first one. However, that mechanism, which is caused by the diurnal oscillation of eddy viscosity, is often responsible for jet formation. Sensitivity tests carried out showed that SCADIS captures the most prominent features of the LLJ, including its vertical structure as well as its diurnal phase and amplitude. We simulated ABL pattern under conditions typical for LLJ formation (a fair day on July 1, a flat low-roughness underlying surface) at 30 and 50o latitudes. Diurnal variability of wind speed and turbulence intensity at four levels of 40, 70, 100 and 130 m above ground and of wind and directional shear between those levels were analysed. Despite of small differences in LLJ structure the properties of LLJ important for wind energy production are still common for two latitudes. Along with the wind speed increase in night time the turbulence intensity decreases and, as it was confirmed by many experiments, are insignificant in comparison with midday values (both factors are favourable for wind production). However, wind and directional shear across the entire layer occupied by hypothetical wind turbine rotors (between 40 - 130 m) provide different wind conditions above and below the turbine hub. For example, the shear exponent was higher than 0.65 during most part of night (below 0.08 at midday) and direction shear was sometimes higher than 0.3 degree per meter (about 0 at midday). Most extreme values of both parameters occurred at dawn when turbulence starts to develop. This creates large amounts of stress on the turbines, causing difficulties in their operation and fatigue issues over time. The model will have to be coupled to an aeroelastic model to be able to predict quantatively the consequences for power production and dynamic loads on wind turbines.

He II lambda-4686 in Eta Carinae: Collapse of the Wind-Wind Collision Region During Periastron Passage

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Teodoro, M.; Damineli, A.; Arias, J. I.; DeAraujo, F. X.; Barba, R. H.; Corcoran, M. F.; Fernandes, M. Borges; Fernandez-Lajus, E.; Fraga, L.; Gamen, R. C.;

Estimation of the high-spatial-resolution variability in extreme wind speeds for forestry applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Venäläinen, Ari; Laapas, Mikko; Pirinen, Pentti; Horttanainen, Matti; Hyvönen, Reijo; Lehtonen, Ilari; Junila, Päivi; Hou, Meiting; Peltola, Heli M.

2017-07-01

The bioeconomy has an increasing role to play in climate change mitigation and the sustainable development of national economies. In Finland, a forested country, over 50 % of the current bioeconomy relies on the sustainable management and utilization of forest resources. Wind storms are a major risk that forests are exposed to and high-spatial-resolution analysis of the most vulnerable locations can produce risk assessment of forest management planning. In this paper, we examine the feasibility of the wind multiplier approach for downscaling of maximum wind speed, using 20 m spatial resolution CORINE land-use dataset and high-resolution digital elevation data. A coarse spatial resolution estimate of the 10-year return level of maximum wind speed was obtained from the ERA-Interim reanalyzed data. Using a geospatial re-mapping technique the data were downscaled to 26 meteorological station locations to represent very diverse environments. Applying a comparison, we find that the downscaled 10-year return levels represent 66 % of the observed variation among the stations examined. In addition, the spatial variation in wind-multiplier-downscaled 10-year return level wind was compared with the WAsP model-simulated wind. The heterogeneous test area was situated in northern Finland, and it was found that the major features of the spatial variation were similar, but in some locations, there were relatively large differences. The results indicate that the wind multiplier method offers a pragmatic and computationally feasible tool for identifying at a high spatial resolution those locations with the highest forest wind damage risks. It can also be used to provide the necessary wind climate information for wind damage risk model calculations, thus making it possible to estimate the probability of predicted threshold wind speeds for wind damage and consequently the probability (and amount) of wind damage for certain forest stand configurations.

Space Vehicle Terrestrial Environment Design Requirements Guidelines

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johnson, Dale L.; Keller, Vernon W.; Vaughan, William W.

2006-01-01

The terrestrial environment is an important driver of space vehicle structural, control, and thermal system design. NASA is currently in the process of producing an update to an earlier Terrestrial Environment Guidelines for Aerospace Vehicle Design and Development Handbook. This paper addresses the contents of this updated handbook, with special emphasis on new material being included in the areas of atmospheric thermodynamic models, wind dynamics, atmospheric composition, atmospheric electricity, cloud phenomena, atmospheric extremes, and sea state. In addition, the respective engineering design elements are discussed relative to terrestrial environment inputs that require consideration. Specific lessons learned that have contributed to the advancements made in the application and awareness of terrestrial environment inputs for aerospace engineering applications are presented.

KSC-98pc1133

NASA Image and Video Library

1998-09-18

KENNEDY SPACE CENTER, FLA. -- The Spartan solar-observing deployable spacecraft is placed inside the payload canister in the Multi-Payload Processing Facility at KSC. Spartan is one of the payloads for the STS-95 mission, scheduled to launch Oct. 29. Spartan is a solar physics spacecraft designed to perform remote sensing of the hot outer layers of the sun's atmosphere or corona. The objective of the observations is to investigate the mechanisms causing the heating of the solar corona and the acceleration of the solar wind which originates in the corona. Other research payloads include the Hubble Space Telescope Orbital Systems Test Platform, the International Extreme Ultraviolet Hitchhiker, and the SPACEHAB single module with experiments on space flight and the aging process

KSC-98pc1132

NASA Image and Video Library

1998-09-18

KENNEDY SPACE CENTER, FLA. -- The Spartan solar-observing deployable spacecraft is suspended above the payload canister in the Multi-Payload Processing Facility at KSC. Spartan is one of the payloads for the STS-95 mission, scheduled to launch Oct. 29. Spartan is a solar physics spacecraft designed to perform remote sensing of the hot outer layers of the sun's atmosphere or corona. The objective of the observations is to investigate the mechanisms causing the heating of the solar corona and the acceleration of the solar wind which originates in the corona. Other research payloads include the Hubble Space Telescope Orbital Systems Test Platform, the International Extreme Ultraviolet Hitchhiker, and the SPACEHAB single module with experiments on space flight and the aging process

Charged Particle Environment Definition for NGST: L2 Plasma Environment Statistics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Minow, Joseph I.; Blackwell, William C.; Neergaard, Linda F.; Evans, Steven W.; Hardage, Donna M.; Owens, Jerry K.

2000-01-01

The plasma environment encountered by the Next Generation Space Telescope satellite in a halo orbit about L2 can include the Earth's magnetotail and magnetosheath in addition to the solar wind depending on the orbital radius chosen for the mission. Analysis of plasma environment impacts on the satellite requires knowledge of the average and extreme plasma characteristics to assess the magnitude of spacecraft charging and materials degradation expected for the mission lifetime. This report describes the analysis of plasma data from instruments onboard the IMP 8 and Geotail spacecraft used to produce the plasma database for the LRAD engineering-level phenomenology code developed to provide the NGST L2 environment definition.

Effects of wind waves versus ship waves on tidal marsh plants: a flume study on different life stages of Scirpus maritimus.

PubMed

Silinski, Alexandra; Heuner, Maike; Schoelynck, Jonas; Puijalon, Sara; Schröder, Uwe; Fuchs, Elmar; Troch, Peter; Bouma, Tjeerd J; Meire, Patrick; Temmerman, Stijn

2015-01-01

Recent research indicates that many ecosystems, including intertidal marshes, follow the alternative stable states theory. This theory implies that thresholds of environmental factors can mark a limit between two opposing stable ecosystem states, e.g. vegetated marshes and bare mudflats. While elevation relative to mean sea level is considered as the overall threshold condition for colonization of mudflats by vegetation, little is known about the individual driving mechanisms, in particular the impact of waves, and more specifically of wave period. We studied the impact of different wave regimes on plants in a full scale flume experiment. Seedlings and adult shoots of the pioneer Scirpus maritimus were subjected to two wave periods at two water levels. Drag forces acting on, and sediment scouring occurring around the plants were quantified, as these are the two main mechanisms determining plant establishment and survival. Depending on life stage, two distinct survival strategies emerge: seedlings present a stress avoidance strategy by being extremely flexible, thus limiting the drag forces and thereby the risk of breaking. Adult shoots present a stress tolerance strategy by having stiffer stems, which gives them a higher resistance to breaking. These strategies work well under natural, short period wind wave conditions. For long period waves, however, caused e.g. by ships, these survival strategies have a high chance to fail as the flexibility of seedlings and stiffness of adults lead to plant tissue failure and extreme drag forces respectively. This results in both cases in strongly bent plant stems, potentially limiting their survival.

Effects of Wind Waves versus Ship Waves on Tidal Marsh Plants: A Flume Study on Different Life Stages of Scirpus maritimus

PubMed Central

Schoelynck, Jonas; Puijalon, Sara; Schröder, Uwe; Fuchs, Elmar; Troch, Peter; Bouma, Tjeerd J.; Meire, Patrick; Temmerman, Stijn

2015-01-01

Recent research indicates that many ecosystems, including intertidal marshes, follow the alternative stable states theory. This theory implies that thresholds of environmental factors can mark a limit between two opposing stable ecosystem states, e.g. vegetated marshes and bare mudflats. While elevation relative to mean sea level is considered as the overall threshold condition for colonization of mudflats by vegetation, little is known about the individual driving mechanisms, in particular the impact of waves, and more specifically of wave period. We studied the impact of different wave regimes on plants in a full scale flume experiment. Seedlings and adult shoots of the pioneer Scirpus maritimus were subjected to two wave periods at two water levels. Drag forces acting on, and sediment scouring occurring around the plants were quantified, as these are the two main mechanisms determining plant establishment and survival. Depending on life stage, two distinct survival strategies emerge: seedlings present a stress avoidance strategy by being extremely flexible, thus limiting the drag forces and thereby the risk of breaking. Adult shoots present a stress tolerance strategy by having stiffer stems, which gives them a higher resistance to breaking. These strategies work well under natural, short period wind wave conditions. For long period waves, however, caused e.g. by ships, these survival strategies have a high chance to fail as the flexibility of seedlings and stiffness of adults lead to plant tissue failure and extreme drag forces respectively. This results in both cases in strongly bent plant stems, potentially limiting their survival. PMID:25799017

The Main Pillar: Assessment of Space Weather Observational Asset Performance Supporting Nowcasting, Forecasting and Research to Operations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Posner, Arik; Hesse, Michael; SaintCyr, Chris

2014-01-01

Space weather forecasting critically depends upon availability of timely and reliable observational data. It is therefore particularly important to understand how existing and newly planned observational assets perform during periods of severe space weather. Extreme space weather creates challenging conditions under which instrumentation and spacecraft may be impeded or in which parameters reach values that are outside the nominal observational range. This paper analyzes existing and upcoming observational capabilities for forecasting, and discusses how the findings may impact space weather research and its transition to operations. A single limitation to the assessment is lack of information provided to us on radiation monitor performance, which caused us not to fully assess (i.e., not assess short term) radiation storm forecasting. The assessment finds that at least two widely spaced coronagraphs including L4 would provide reliability for Earth-bound CMEs. Furthermore, all magnetic field measurements assessed fully meet requirements. However, with current or even with near term new assets in place, in the worst-case scenario there could be a near-complete lack of key near-real-time solar wind plasma data of severe disturbances heading toward and impacting Earth's magnetosphere. Models that attempt to simulate the effects of these disturbances in near real time or with archival data require solar wind plasma observations as input. Moreover, the study finds that near-future observational assets will be less capable of advancing the understanding of extreme geomagnetic disturbances at Earth, which might make the resulting space weather models unsuitable for transition to operations.

The multi-messenger approach to particle acceleration by massive stars: a science case for optical, radio and X-ray observatories

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

De Becker, Michaël

2018-04-01

Massive stars are extreme stellar objects whose properties allow for the study of some interesting physical processes, including particle acceleration up to relativistic velocities. In particular, the collisions of massive star winds in binary systems lead notably to acceleration of electrons involved in synchrotron emission, hence their identification as non-thermal radio emitters. This has been demonstrated for about 40 objects so far. The relativistic electrons are also expected to produce non-thermal high-energy radiation through inverse Compton scattering. This class of objects permits thus to investigate non-thermal physics through observations in the radio and high energy spectral domains. However, the binary nature of these sources introduces some stringent requirements to adequately interpret their behavior and model non-thermal processes. In particular, these objects are well-established variable stellar sources on the orbital time-scale. The stellar and orbital parameters need to be determined, and this is notably achieved through studies in the optical domain. The combination of observations in the visible domain (including e.g. 3.6-m DOT) with radio measurements using notably GMRT and X-ray observations constitutes thus a promising strategy to investigate particle-accelerating colliding-wind binaries in the forthcoming decade.

Weathering the Storm.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kennedy, Mike

2000-01-01

Discusses the importance of knowing the type of climate a school is likely to endure as a decision element for selecting a school roofing system. The influence of extreme temperature shifts, wind, and excessive heat in the decision making process are discussed as are ways of improving maintenance and monitoring practices. (GR)

Absolute, Extreme-Ultraviolet Solar Spectral Irradiance Monitor (AESSIM)

DTIC Science & Technology

1994-04-01

molecular constituents [Meier 1991]. This radiation is the principal source of energy for producing and maintaining the complex, time-dependent, thermal...158.4 nm emisions for interstellar wind studies. After -2005, there is unlikely to be sufficient power to provide the requisite heating of the scan

Design Evaluation of Wind Turbine Spline Couplings Using an Analytical Model: Preprint

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Guo, Y.; Keller, J.; Wallen, R.

2015-02-01

Articulated splines are commonly used in the planetary stage of wind turbine gearboxes for transmitting the driving torque and improving load sharing. Direct measurement of spline loads and performance is extremely challenging because of limited accessibility. This paper presents an analytical model for the analysis of articulated spline coupling designs. For a given torque and shaft misalignment, this analytical model quickly yields insights into relationships between the spline design parameters and resulting loads; bending, contact, and shear stresses; and safety factors considering various heat treatment methods. Comparisons of this analytical model against previously published computational approaches are also presented.

Wind Tunnel Data Fusion and Immersive Visualization: A Case Study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Severance, Kurt; Brewster, Paul; Lazos, Barry; Keefe, Daniel

2001-01-01

This case study describes the process of fusing the data from several wind tunnel experiments into a single coherent visualization. Each experiment was conducted independently and was designed to explore different flow features around airplane landing gear. In the past, it would have been very difficult to correlate results from the different experiments. However, with a single 3-D visualization representing the fusion of the three experiments, significant insight into the composite flowfield was observed that would have been extremely difficult to obtain by studying its component parts. The results are even more compelling when viewed in an immersive environment.

Effects of Regional Climate Change on the Wave Conditions in the Western Baltic Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dreier, N.; Fröhle, P.

2017-12-01

The local wave climate in the Western Baltic Sea is mainly generated by the local wind field over the area. Long-term changes of the local wind conditions that are induced e.g. by regional climate change, directly affect the local wave climate and other local wind driven coastal processes like e.g. the longshore sediment transport. The changes of the local wave climate play an important role for the safe functional and structural design of new, or the adaption of existing, coastal protection structures as well as for the assessment of long-term morphological changes of the coastline. In this study, the wave model SWAN is used for the calculation of hourly wave conditions in the Western Baltic Sea between 1960 and 2100. Future wind conditions from two regional climate models (Cosmo-CLM and REMO) that have been forced by different future greenhouse gas emission scenarios used within AR4 (A1B, B1) and AR5 (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) of IPCC are used as input for the wave model. The changes of the average wave conditions are analyzed from comparisons between the 30 years averages for the future (e.g. 2071-2100) and the reference period 1971-2000. Regarding the emission scenarios A1B and B1, a significant change of the 30 years averages of significant wave height at westerly wind exposed locations with predominant higher values up to +10% is found (cf. Fig. 1). In contrast, the change of the 30 years averages of significant wave height is more weak at easterly wind exposed locations, resulting in higher and lower values between -5% to +5%. Moreover, more wave events from W-NW and fewer events from N-NE can be expected, due to changes of the frequency of occurrence of the 30 years averages of mean wave direction. The changes of extreme wave heights are analyzed based on methods of extreme value analysis and the time series of wave parameters at selected locations nearby the German Baltic Sea coast. No robust changes of the significant wave heights with a return period of 200 years are found for the emission scenarios A1B and B1. Both increases and decreases of the extreme wave heights are possible within a range of -18% to +18% (-0.5m to +0.5m). In the presentation, we will show results from the assessment of the changes of the wave conditions for the emission scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 and discuss possible impacts for the German Baltic Sea coast.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fan, Jiwen; Rosenfeld, Daniel; Yang, Yan

Extreme events such as heat waves, floods, and droughts, have become more frequent since the 1950s1-2. This is likely caused through changes in greenhouse gases and aerosols that perturb the radiative balance and alter cloud processes3-8. On 8-9 July, 2013 a catastrophic flood devastated several metropolitan areas at the foothills of the Sichuan Basin. Using a high-resolution coupled atmosphere-chemistry model, we show that this disaster was not entirely natural. Ensemble simulations robustly show that the severe anthropogenic pollution in the Sichuan Basin significantly enhanced rainfall intensity over the mountainous area northwest of the basin. The heavy air pollution (mainly blackmore » carbon) absorbs solar radiation in the lower atmosphere at the expense of surface cooling, which stabilizes the atmosphere and suppresses convection and precipitation over the basin. The enhanced moisture and moist static energy over the basin are then transported by the prevailing winds towards the mountains during daytime. As the excessive moist air that reaches the foothills at night is orographically lifted, very strong convection develops and produces extremely heavy precipitation. Reducing black carbon (BC) emissions in the basin can effectively mitigate the extreme precipitation in the mountains. Unfortunately, BC emissions have been increasing in many developing countries including China9, making them more vulnerable to enhanced disasters as reported here.« less

Anomalously low C{sup 6+}/C{sup 5+} ratio in solar wind: ACE/SWICS observation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhao, L., E-mail: lzh@umich.edu; Landi, E.; Kocher, M.

The Carbon and Oxygen ionization states in the solar wind plasma freeze-in within 2 solar radii (R{sub s}) from the solar surface, and then they do not change as they propagate with the solar wind into the heliosphere. Therefore, the O{sup 7+}/O{sup 6+} and C{sup 6+}/C{sup 5+} charge state ratios measured in situ maintain a record of the thermal properties (electron temperature and density) of the inner corona where the solar wind originates. Since these two ratios freeze-in at very similar height, they are expected to be correlated. However, an investigation of the correlation between these two ratios as measuredmore » by ACE/SWICS instrument from 1998 to 201l shows that there is a subset of “Outliers” departing from the expected correlation. We find about 49.4% of these Outliers is related to the Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections (ICMEs), while 49.6% of them is slow speed wind (V{sub p} < 500 km/s) and about 1.0% of them is fast solar wind (V{sub p} > 500 km/s). We compare the outlier-slow-speed wind with the normal slow wind (defined as V{sub p} < 500 km/s and O{sup 7+}/O{sup 6+} > 0.2) and find that the reason that causes the Outliers to depart from the correlation is their extremely depleted C{sup 6+}/C{sup 5+} ratio which is decreased by 80% compared to the normal slow wind. We discuss the implication of the Outlier solar wind for the solar wind acceleration mechanism.« less

Onshore and offshore wind resource evaluation in the northeastern area of the Iberian Peninsula: quality assurance of the surface wind observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hidalgo, A.; González-Rouco, J. F.; Jiménez, P. A.; Navarro, J.; García-Bustamante, E.; Lucio-Eceiza, E. E.; Montávez, J. P.; García, A. Y.; Prieto, L.

2012-04-01

Offshore wind energy is becoming increasingly important as a reliable source of electricity generation. The areas located in the vicinity of the Cantabrian and Mediterranean coasts are areas of interest in this regard. This study targets an assessment of the wind resource focused on the two coastal regions and the strip of land between them, thereby including most of the northeastern part of the Iberian Peninsula (IP) and containing the Ebro basin. The analysis of the wind resource in inland areas is crucial as the wind channeling through the existing mountains has a direct impact on the sea circulations near the coast. The thermal circulations generated by the topography near the coast also influence the offshore wind resource. This work summarizes the results of the first steps of a Quality Assurance (QA) procedure applied to the surface wind database available over the area of interest. The dataset consists of 752 stations compiled from different sources: 14 buoys distributed over the IP coast provided by Puertos del Estado (1990-2010); and 738 land sites over the area of interest provided by 8 different Spanish institutions (1933-2010) and the National Center of Atmospheric Research (NCAR; 1978-2010). It is worth noting that the variety of institutional observational protocols lead to different temporal resolutions and peculiarities that somewhat complicate the QA. The QA applied to the dataset is structured in three steps that involve the detection and suppression of: 1) manipulation errors (i.e. repetitions); 2) unrealistic values and ranges in wind module and direction; 3) abnormally low (e.g. long constant periods) and high variations (e.g. extreme values and inhomogeneities) to ensure the temporal consistency of the time series. A quality controlled observational network of wind variables with such spatial density and temporal length is not frequent and specifically for the IP is not documented in the literature. The final observed dataset will allow for a comprehensive understanding of the wind field climatology and variability and its association with the large scale atmospheric circulation as well as their dependence on local/regional features like topography, land-sea contrast, etc. In future steps, a high spatial resolution simulation will be accomplished with the WRF mesoescale model in order to improve the knowledge of the wind field in the area of interest. Such simulation will be validated by comparison with the observational dataset. In addition, studies to analyze the sensitivity of the model to different factors such as the parameterizations of the most significant physical processes that the model does not solve explicitly, the boundary conditions that feed the model, etc. will be carried out.

Observations and Modeling of Turbulent Air-Sea Coupling in Coastal and Strongly Forced Condition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ortiz-Suslow, David G.

The turbulent fluxes of momentum, mass, and energy across the ocean-atmosphere boundary are fundamental to our understanding of a myriad of geophysical processes, such as wind-wave generation, oceanic circulation, and air-sea gas transfer. In order to better understand these fluxes, empirical relationships were developed to quantify the interfacial exchange rates in terms of easily observed parameters (e.g., wind speed). However, mounting evidence suggests that these empirical formulae are only valid over the relatively narrow parametric space, i.e. open ocean conditions in light to moderate winds. Several near-surface processes have been observed to cause significant variance in the air-sea fluxes not predicted by the conventional functions, such as a heterogeneous surfaces, swell waves, and wave breaking. Further study is needed to fully characterize how these types of processes can modulate the interfacial exchange; in order to achieve this, a broad investigation into air-sea coupling was undertaken. The primary focus of this work was to use a combination of field and laboratory observations and numerical modeling, in regimes where conventional theories would be expected to breakdown, namely: the nearshore and in very high winds. These seemingly disparate environments represent the marine atmospheric boundary layer at its physical limit. In the nearshore, the convergence of land, air, and sea in a depth-limited domain marks the transition from a marine to a terrestrial boundary layer. Under extreme winds, the physical nature of the boundary layer remains unknown as an intermediate substrate layer, sea spray, develops between the atmosphere and ocean surface. At these ends of the MABL physical spectrum, direct measurements of the near-surface processes were made and directly related to local sources of variance. Our results suggest that the conventional treatment of air-sea fluxes in terms of empirical relationships developed from a relatively narrow set of environmental conditions do not generalize to the coastal and extreme wind environments. This body of work represents a multi-faceted approach to understanding physical air-sea interactions in varied regimes and using a wide array of investigatory methods.

Eclipse and Collapse of the Colliding Wind X-ray Emission from Eta Carinae

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hamaguchi, Kenji; Corcoran, Michael F.

2012-01-01

X-ray emission from the massive stellar binary system, Eta Carinae, drops strongly around periastron passage; the event is called the X-ray minimum. We launched a focused observing campaign in early 2009 to understand the mechanism of causing the X-ray minimum. During the campaign, hard X-ray emission (<10 keV) from Eta Carinae declined as in the previous minimum, though it recovered a month earlier. Extremely hard X-ray emission between 15-25 keV, closely monitored for the first time with the Suzaku HXD/PIN, decreased similarly to the hard X-rays, but it reached minimum only after hard X-ray emission from the star had already began to recover. This indicates that the X-ray minimum is produced by two composite mechanisms: the thick primary wind first obscured the hard, 2-10 keV thermal X-ray emission from the wind-wind collision (WWC) plasma; the WWC activity then decays as the two stars reach periastron.

Influence of Westerly Wind Events stochasticity on El Niño amplitude: the case of 2014 vs. 2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Puy, Martin; Vialard, Jérôme; Lengaigne, Matthieu; Guilyardi, Eric; DiNezio, Pedro N.; Voldoire, Aurore; Balmaseda, Magdalena; Madec, Gurvan; Menkes, Christophe; Mcphaden, Michael J.

2017-10-01

The weak El Niño of 2014 was preceded by anomalously high equatorial Pacific Warm Water Volume (WWV) and strong Westerly Wind Events (WWEs), which typically lead to record breaking El Nino, like in 1997 and 2015. Here, we use the CNRM-CM5 coupled model to investigate the causes for the stalled El Niño in 2014 and the necessary conditions for extreme El Niños. This model is ideally suited to study this problem because it simulates all the processes thought to be critical for the onset and development of El Niño. It captures El Niño preconditioning by WWV, the WWEs characteristics and their deterministic behaviour in response to warm pool displacements. Our main finding is, that despite their deterministic control, WWEs display a sufficiently strong stochastic component to explain the distinct evolutions of El Niño in 2014 and 2015. A 100-member ensemble simulation initialized with early-spring equatorial conditions analogous to those observed in 2014 and 2015 demonstrates that early-year elevated WWV and strong WWEs preclude the occurrence of a La Niña but lead to El Niños that span the weak (with few WWEs) to extreme (with many WWEs) range. Sensitivity experiments confirm that numerous/strong WWEs shift the El Niño distribution toward larger amplitudes, with a particular emphasis on summer/fall WWEs occurrence which result in a five-fold increase of the odds for an extreme El Niño. A long simulation further demonstrates that sustained WWEs throughout the year and anomalously high WWV are necessary conditions for extreme El Niño to develop. In contrast, we find no systematic influence of easterly wind events (EWEs) on the El Niño amplitude in our model. Our results demonstrate that the weak amplitude of El Niño in 2014 can be explained by WWEs stochastic variations without invoking EWEs or remote influences from outside the tropical Pacific and therefore its peak amplitude was inherently unpredictable at long lead-time.

Wind turbine/generator set and method of making same

DOEpatents

Bevington, Christopher M.; Bywaters, Garrett L.; Coleman, Clint C.; Costin, Daniel P.; Danforth, William L.; Lynch, Jonathan A.; Rolland, Robert H.

2013-06-04

A wind turbine comprising an electrical generator that includes a rotor assembly. A wind rotor that includes a wind rotor hub is directly coupled to the rotor assembly via a simplified connection. The wind rotor and generator rotor assembly are rotatably mounted on a central spindle via a bearing assembly. The wind rotor hub includes an opening having a diameter larger than the outside diameter of the central spindle adjacent the bearing assembly so as to allow access to the bearing assembly from a cavity inside the wind rotor hub. The spindle is attached to a turret supported by a tower. Each of the spindle, turret and tower has an interior cavity that permits personnel to traverse therethrough to the cavity of the wind rotor hub. The wind turbine further includes a frictional braking system for slowing, stopping or keeping stopped the rotation of the wind rotor and rotor assembly.

Wind turbine/generator set having a stator cooling system located between stator frame and active coils

DOEpatents

Bevington, Christopher M.; Bywaters, Garrett L.; Coleman, Clint C.; Costin, Daniel P.; Danforth, William L.; Lynch, Jonathan A.; Rolland, Robert H.

2012-11-13

A wind turbine comprising an electrical generator that includes a rotor assembly. A wind rotor that includes a wind rotor hub is directly coupled to the rotor assembly via a simplified connection. The wind rotor and generator rotor assembly are rotatably mounted on a central spindle via a bearing assembly. The wind rotor hub includes an opening having a diameter larger than the outside diameter of the central spindle adjacent the bearing assembly so as to allow access to the bearing assembly from a cavity inside the wind rotor hub. The spindle is attached to a turret supported by a tower. Each of the spindle, turret and tower has an interior cavity that permits personnel to traverse therethrough to the cavity of the wind rotor hub. The wind turbine further includes a frictional braking system for slowing, stopping or keeping stopped the rotation of the wind rotor and rotor assembly.

Wind turbine having a direct-drive drivetrain

DOEpatents

Bevington, Christopher M.; Bywaters, Garrett L.; Coleman, Clint C.; Costin, Daniel P.; Danforth, William L.; Lynch, Jonathan A.; Rolland, Robert H.

2011-02-22

A wind turbine comprising an electrical generator that includes a rotor assembly. A wind rotor that includes a wind rotor hub is directly coupled to the rotor assembly via a simplified connection. The wind rotor and generator rotor assembly are rotatably mounted on a central spindle via a bearing assembly. The wind rotor hub includes an opening having a diameter larger than the outside diameter of the central spindle adjacent the bearing assembly so as to allow access to the bearing assembly from a cavity inside the wind rotor hub. The spindle is attached to a turret supported by a tower. Each of the spindle, turret and tower has an interior cavity that permits personnel to traverse therethrough to the cavity of the wind rotor hub. The wind turbine further includes a frictional braking system for slowing, stopping or keeping stopped the rotation of the wind rotor and rotor assembly.

The response of relativistic outflowing gas to the inner accretion disk of a black hole.

PubMed

Parker, Michael L; Pinto, Ciro; Fabian, Andrew C; Lohfink, Anne; Buisson, Douglas J K; Alston, William N; Kara, Erin; Cackett, Edward M; Chiang, Chia-Ying; Dauser, Thomas; De Marco, Barbara; Gallo, Luigi C; Garcia, Javier; Harrison, Fiona A; King, Ashley L; Middleton, Matthew J; Miller, Jon M; Miniutti, Giovanni; Reynolds, Christopher S; Uttley, Phil; Vasudevan, Ranjan; Walton, Dominic J; Wilkins, Daniel R; Zoghbi, Abderahmen

2017-03-01

The brightness of an active galactic nucleus is set by the gas falling onto it from the galaxy, and the gas infall rate is regulated by the brightness of the active galactic nucleus; this feedback loop is the process by which supermassive black holes in the centres of galaxies may moderate the growth of their hosts. Gas outflows (in the form of disk winds) release huge quantities of energy into the interstellar medium, potentially clearing the surrounding gas. The most extreme (in terms of speed and energy) of these-the ultrafast outflows-are the subset of X-ray-detected outflows with velocities higher than 10,000 kilometres per second, believed to originate in relativistic (that is, near the speed of light) disk winds a few hundred gravitational radii from the black hole. The absorption features produced by these outflows are variable, but no clear link has been found between the behaviour of the X-ray continuum and the velocity or optical depth of the outflows, owing to the long timescales of quasar variability. Here we report the observation of multiple absorption lines from an extreme ultrafast gas flow in the X-ray spectrum of the active galactic nucleus IRAS 13224-3809, at 0.236 ± 0.006 times the speed of light (71,000 kilometres per second), where the absorption is strongly anti-correlated with the emission of X-rays from the inner regions of the accretion disk. If the gas flow is identified as a genuine outflow then it is in the fastest five per cent of such winds, and its variability is hundreds of times faster than in other variable winds, allowing us to observe in hours what would take months in a quasar. We find X-ray spectral signatures of the wind simultaneously in both low- and high-energy detectors, suggesting a single ionized outflow, linking the low- and high-energy absorption lines. That this disk wind is responding to the emission from the inner accretion disk demonstrates a connection between accretion processes occurring on very different scales: the X-ray emission from within a few gravitational radii of the black hole ionizing the disk wind hundreds of gravitational radii further away as the X-ray flux rises.

Atmospheric NLTE models for the spectroscopic analysis of blue stars with winds. III. X-ray emission from wind-embedded shocks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carneiro, L. P.; Puls, J.; Sundqvist, J. O.; Hoffmann, T. L.

2016-05-01

Context. Extreme ultraviolet (EUV) and X-ray radiation emitted from wind-embedded shocks in hot, massive stars can affect the ionization balance in their outer atmospheres and can be the mechanism responsible for producing highly ionized atomic species detected in stellar wind UV spectra. Aims: To allow for these processes in the context of spectral analysis, we have implemented the emission from wind-embedded shocks and related physics into our unified, NLTE model atmosphere/spectrum synthesis code FASTWIND. Methods: The shock structure and corresponding emission is calculated as a function of user-supplied parameters (volume filling factor, radial stratification of shock strength, and radial onset of emission). We account for a temperature and density stratification inside the postshock cooling zones, calculated for radiative and adiabatic cooling in the inner and outer wind, respectively. The high-energy absorption of the cool wind is considered by adding important K-shell opacities, and corresponding Auger ionization rates have been included in the NLTE network. To test our implementation and to check the resulting effects, we calculated a comprehensive model grid with a variety of X-ray emission parameters. Results: We tested and verified our implementation carefully against corresponding results from various alternative model atmosphere codes, and studied the effects from shock emission for important ions from He, C, N, O, Si, and P. Surprisingly, dielectronic recombination turned out to play an essential role for the ionization balance of O iv/O v (particularly in dwarfs with Teff~ 45 000 K). Finally, we investigated the frequency dependence and radial behavior of the mass absorption coefficient, κν(r), which is important in the context of X-ray line formation in massive star winds. Conclusions: In almost all of the cases considered, direct ionization is of major influence because of the enhanced EUV radiation field, and Auger ionization only affects N vi and O vi significantly. The approximation of a radially constant κν is justified for r ≳ 1.2 R∗ and λ ≲ 18 Å and also for many models at longer wavelengths. To estimate the actual value of this quantity, however, the He II opacities need to be calculated from detailed NLTE modeling, at least for wavelengths longer than 18 to 20 Å, and information on the individual CNO abundances has to be present.

Three-Dimensional Venturi Sensor for Measuring Extreme Winds

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zysko, Jan A.; Perotti, Jose M.; Amis, Christopher; Randazzo, John; Blalock, Norman; Eckhoff, Anthony

2003-01-01

A three-dimensional (3D) Venturi sensor is being developed as a compact, rugged means of measuring wind vectors having magnitudes of as much as 300 mph (134 m/s). This sensor also incorporates auxiliary sensors for measuring temperature from -40 to +120 F (-40 to +49 C), relative humidity from 0 to 100 percent, and atmospheric pressure from 846 to 1,084 millibar (85 to 108 kPa). Conventional cup-and-vane anemometers are highly susceptible to damage by both high wind forces and debris, due to their moving parts and large profiles. In addition, they exhibit slow recovery times contributing to an inaccurately high average-speed reading. Ultrasonic and hot-wire anemometers overcome some of the disadvantages of the cup and-vane anemometers, but they have other disadvantageous features, including limited dynamic range and susceptibility to errors caused by external acoustic noise and rain. In contrast, the novel 3D Venturi sensor is less vulnerable to wind damage because of its smaller profile and ruggedness. Since the sensor has no moving parts, it provides increased reliability and lower maintenance costs. It has faster response and recovery times to changing wind conditions than traditional systems. In addition, it offers wide dynamic range and is expected to be relatively insensitive to rain and acoustic energy. The Venturi effect in this sensor is achieved by the mirrored double-inflection curve, which is then rotated 360 to create the desired detection surfaces. The curve is optimized to provide a good balance of pressure difference between sensor ports and overall maximum fluid velocity while in the shape. Four posts are used to separate the two shapes, and their size and location were chosen to minimize effects on the pressure measurements. The 3D Venturi sensor has smart software algorithms to map the wind pressure exerted on the surfaces of the design. Using Bernoulli's equation, the speed of the wind is calculated from the differences among the pressure readings at the various ports. The direction of the wind is calculated from the spatial distribution and magnitude of the pressure readings. All of the pressure port sizes and locations have been optimized to minimize measurement errors and to reside in areas demonstrating a stable pressure reading proportional to the velocity range.

Aeolian Sand Transport with Collisional Suspension

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jenkins, James T.; Pasini, Jose Miguel; Valance, Alexandre

2004-01-01

Aeolian transport is an important mechanism for the transport of sand on Earth and on Mars. Dust and sand storms are common occurrences on Mars and windblown sand is responsible for many of the observed surface features, such as dune fields. A better understanding of Aeolian transport could also lead to improvements in pneumatic conveying of materials to be mined for life support on the surface of the Moon and Mars. The usual view of aeolian sand transport is that for mild winds, saltation is the dominant mechanism, with particles in the bed being dislodged by the impact of other saltating particles, but without in-flight collisions. As the wind becomes stronger, turbulent suspension keeps the particles in the air, allowing much longer trajectories, with the corresponding increase in transport rate. We show here that an important regime exists between these two extremes: for strong winds, but before turbulent suspension becomes dominant, there is a regime in which in-flight collisions dominate over turbulence as a suspension mechanism, yielding transport rates much higher than those for saltation. The theory presented is based on granular kinetic theory, and includes both turbulent suspension and particle-particle collisions. The wind strengths for which the calculated transport rates are relevant are beyond the published strengths of current wind tunnel experiments, so these theoretical results are an invitation to do experiments in the strong-wind regime. In order to make a connection between the regime of saltation and the regime of collisional suspension, it is necessary to better understand the interaction between the bed and the particles that collide with it. This interaction depends on the agitation of the particles of the bed. In mild winds, collisions with the bed are relatively infrequent and the local disturbance associated with a collision can relax before the next nearby collision. However, as the wind speed increases, collision become more frequent and the agitation need not decay completely. In the regime of collisional suspension, the particles near the surface of the bed are assumed to be in a state of constant agitation. We indicate the conditions at the bed corresponding to the limits of saltation and collisional suspension and outline experiments, simulations, and modeling that have been undertaken to bridge these limits.

78 FR 48503 - Proposed Revision to Missiles Generated by Extreme Winds

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-08-08

...-0800, ``Standard Review Plan for the Review of Safety Analysis Reports for Nuclear Power Plants: LWR..., ``Design-Basis Hurricane and Hurricane Missiles for Nuclear Power Plants,'' and Interim Staff Guidance DC... and Hurricane Missiles for Nuclear Power Plants'' (ADAMS, Accession No. ML110940300), and Interim...

Solar cycle variations in polar cap area measured by the superDARN radars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Imber, S. M.; Milan, S. E.; Lester, M.

2013-10-01

present a long-term study, from January 1996 to August 2012, of the latitude of the Heppner-Maynard Boundary (HMB) measured at midnight using the northern hemisphere Super Dual Auroral Radar Network (SuperDARN). The HMB represents the equatorward extent of ionospheric convection and is used in this study as a measure of the global magnetospheric dynamics. We find that the yearly distribution of HMB latitudes is single peaked at 64° magnetic latitude for the majority of the 17 year interval. During 2003, the envelope of the distribution shifts to lower latitudes and a second peak in the distribution is observed at 61°. The solar wind-magnetosphere coupling function derived by Milan et al. (2012) suggests that the solar wind driving during this year was significantly higher than during the rest of the 17 year interval. In contrast, during the period 2008-2011, HMB distribution shifts to higher latitudes, and a second peak in the distribution is again observed, this time at 68° magnetic latitude. This time interval corresponds to a period of extremely low solar wind driving during the recent extreme solar minimum. This is the first long-term study of the polar cap area and the results demonstrate that there is a close relationship between the solar activity cycle and the area of the polar cap on a large-scale, statistical basis.

Solar Cycle Variations in Polar Cap Area Measured by the SuperDARN Radars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Imber, S. M.; Milan, S. E.; Lester, M.

2013-12-01

We present a long term study, from January 1996 - August 2012, of the latitude of the Heppner-Maynard Boundary (HMB) measured at midnight using the northern hemisphere SuperDARN radars. The HMB represents the equatorward extent of ionospheric convection, and is used in this study as a measure of the global magnetospheric dynamics and activity. We find that the yearly distribution of HMB latitudes is single-peaked at 64° magnetic latitude for the majority of the 17-year interval. During 2003 the envelope of the distribution shifts to lower latitudes and a second peak in the distribution is observed at 61°. The solar wind-magnetosphere coupling function derived by Milan et al. (2012) suggests that the solar wind driving during this year was significantly higher than during the rest of the 17-year interval. In contrast, during the period 2008-2011 HMB distribution shifts to higher latitudes, and a second peak in the distribution is again observed, this time at 68° magnetic latitude. This time interval corresponds to a period of extremely low solar wind driving during the recent extreme solar minimum. This is the first statistical study of the polar cap area over an entire solar cycle, and the results demonstrate that there is a close relationship between the phase of the solar cycle and the area of the polar cap on a large scale statistical basis.

Stellar and wind parameters of massive stars from spectral analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Araya, I.; Curé, M.

2017-07-01

The only way to deduce information from stars is to decode the radiation it emits in an appropriate way. Spectroscopy can solve this and derive many properties of stars. In this work we seek to derive simultaneously the stellar and wind characteristics of A and B supergiant stars. Our stellar properties encompass the effective temperature, the surface gravity, the stellar radius, the micro-turbulence velocity, the rotational velocity and, finally, the chemical composition. For wind properties we consider the mass-loss rate, the terminal velocity and the line-force parameters (α, k and δ) obtained from the standard line-driven wind theory. To model the data we use the radiative transport code Fastwind considering the newest hydrodynamical solutions derived with Hydwind code, which needs stellar and line-force parameters to obtain a wind solution. A grid of spectral models of massive stars is created and together with the observed spectra their physical properties are determined through spectral line fittings. These fittings provide an estimation about the line-force parameters, whose theoretical calculations are extremely complex. Furthermore, we expect to confirm that the hydrodynamical solutions obtained with a value of δ slightly larger than ˜ 0.25, called δ-slow solutions, describe quite reliable the radiation line-driven winds of A and late B supergiant stars and at the same time explain disagreements between observational data and theoretical models for the Wind-Momentum Luminosity Relationship (WLR).

Stellar and wind parameters of massive stars from spectral analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Araya, Ignacio; Curé, Michel

2017-11-01

The only way to deduce information from stars is to decode the radiation it emits in an appropriate way. Spectroscopy can solve this and derive many properties of stars. In this work we seek to derive simultaneously the stellar and wind characteristics of a wide range of massive stars. Our stellar properties encompass the effective temperature, the surface gravity, the stellar radius, the micro-turbulence velocity, the rotational velocity and the Si abundance. For wind properties we consider the mass-loss rate, the terminal velocity and the line-force parameters α, k and δ (from the line-driven wind theory). To model the data we use the radiative transport code Fastwind considering the newest hydrodynamical solutions derived with Hydwind code, which needs stellar and line-force parameters to obtain a wind solution. A grid of spectral models of massive stars is created and together with the observed spectra their physical properties are determined through spectral line fittings. These fittings provide an estimation about the line-force parameters, whose theoretical calculations are extremely complex. Furthermore, we expect to confirm that the hydrodynamical solutions obtained with a value of δ slightly larger than ~ 0.25, called δ-slow solutions, describe quite reliable the radiation line-driven winds of A and late B supergiant stars and at the same time explain disagreements between observational data and theoretical models for the Wind-Momentum Luminosity Relationship (WLR).

Human-biometeorological assessment of increasing summertime extreme heat events in Shanghai, China during 1973-2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kong, Qinqin; Ge, Quansheng; Xi, Jianchao; Zheng, Jingyun

2017-11-01

Summertime extreme heat events, defined by the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI), have shown increasing trends in Shanghai from 1973 to 2015. There is a clear shift to higher temperatures for the daily maximum UTCI values, and the number of days with daily maximum UTCI exceeding 38 °C significantly increased by 4.34 days/10a. An upward trend of 3.67 days/10a was detected for the number of hot days which also displays an abrupt increase around 1998. Both the frequency and total duration of heat waves have significantly increased by 0.77 times/10a and 3.51 days/10a respectively. Their inter-decadal variations indicate a three-part division of the study period showing more and more heat waves and longer total duration, which are 1.0 times/a and 4.13 days/a for 1973-1987, 1.71 times/a and 7.64 days/a for 1988-2001, and 3.57 times/a and 16.0 days/a for 2002-2015. In addition to that are more occurrences of long-lasting heat waves. Compared with the UTCI, air temperature-based definitions have indicated substantially higher increases in extreme heat events, especially for hot nights. The relatively low humidity and strong wind speeds in the twenty-first century are considered to be responsible for this difference. Our study provides a more in-depth case to monitor extreme heat events under the combining effects of air temperature, humidity, wind speeds, total cloud cover, etc. and can support studies over other regions.

Experimental modeling of the effect of hurricane wind forces on driving behavior and vehicle performance.

PubMed

Rodriguez, Jose M; Codjoe, Julius; Osman, Osama; Ishak, Sherif; Wolshon, Brian

2015-01-01

While traffic planning is important for developing a hurricane evacuation plan, vehicle performance on the roads during extreme weather conditions is critical to the success of the planning process. This novel study investigates the effect of gusty hurricane wind forces on the driving behavior and vehicle performance. The study explores how the parameters of a driving simulator could be modified to reproduce wind loadings experienced by three vehicle types (passenger car, ambulance, and bus) during gusty hurricane winds, through manipulation of appropriate software. Thirty participants were then tested on the modified driving simulator under five wind conditions (ranging from normal to hurricane category 4). The driving performance measures used were heading error and lateral displacement. The results showed that higher wind forces resulted in more varied and greater heading error and lateral displacement. The ambulance had the greatest heading errors and lateral displacements, which were attributed to its large lateral surface area and light weight. Two mathematical models were developed to estimate the heading error and lateral displacements for each of the vehicle types for a given change in lateral wind force. Through a questionnaire, participants felt the different characteristics while driving each vehicle type. The findings of this study demonstrate the valuable use of a driving simulator to model the behavior of different vehicle types and to develop mathematical models to estimate and quantify driving behavior and vehicle performance under hurricane wind conditions.

Methods and apparatus for reducing peak wind turbine loads

DOEpatents

Moroz, Emilian Mieczyslaw

2007-02-13

A method for reducing peak loads of wind turbines in a changing wind environment includes measuring or estimating an instantaneous wind speed and direction at the wind turbine and determining a yaw error of the wind turbine relative to the measured instantaneous wind direction. The method further includes comparing the yaw error to a yaw error trigger that has different values at different wind speeds and shutting down the wind turbine when the yaw error exceeds the yaw error trigger corresponding to the measured or estimated instantaneous wind speed.