Science.gov

Sample records for extreme winter warming

  1. Impacts of extreme winter warming events on plant physiology in a sub-Arctic heath community.

    PubMed

    Bokhorst, Stef; Bjerke, Jarle W; Davey, Matthew P; Taulavuori, Kari; Taulavuori, Erja; Laine, Kari; Callaghan, Terry V; Phoenix, Gareth K

    2010-10-01

    Insulation provided by snow cover and tolerance of freezing by physiological acclimation allows Arctic plants to survive cold winter temperatures. However, both the protection mechanisms may be lost with winter climate change, especially during extreme winter warming events where loss of snow cover from snow melt results in exposure of plants to warm temperatures and then returning extreme cold in the absence of insulating snow. These events cause considerable damage to Arctic plants, but physiological responses behind such damage remain unknown. Here, we report simulations of extreme winter warming events using infrared heating lamps and soil warming cables in a sub-Arctic heathland. During these events, we measured maximum quantum yield of photosystem II (PSII), photosynthesis, respiration, bud swelling and associated bud carbohydrate changes and lipid peroxidation to identify physiological responses during and after the winter warming events in three dwarf shrub species: Empetrum hermaphroditum, Vaccinium vitis-idaea and Vaccinium myrtillus. Winter warming increased maximum quantum yield of PSII, and photosynthesis was initiated for E. hermaphroditum and V. vitis-idaea. Bud swelling, bud carbohydrate decreases and lipid peroxidation were largest for E. hermaphroditum, whereas V. myrtillus and V. vitis-idaea showed no or less strong responses. Increased physiological activity and bud swelling suggest that sub-Arctic plants can initiate spring-like development in response to a short winter warming event. Lipid peroxidation suggests that plants experience increased winter stress. The observed differences between species in physiological responses are broadly consistent with interspecific differences in damage seen in previous studies, with E. hermaphroditum and V. myrtillus tending to be most sensitive. This suggests that initiation of spring-like development may be a major driver in the damage caused by winter warming events that are predicted to become more

  2. The Extremely Warm Early Winter 2000 in Europe: What is the Forcing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Otterman, J.; Angell, J. K.; Atlas, R.; Ardizzone, J.; Demaree, G.; Jusem, J. C.; Koslowsky, D.; Terry, J.; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    High variability characterizes the winter climate of central Europe: interannual fluctuations in the surface-air temperature as large as 18 C over large areas are fairly common. The extraordinary early-winter 2000 in Europe appears to be a departure to an unprecedented extreme of the existing climate patterns. Such anomalous events affect agriculture, forestry, fuel consumption, etc., and thus deserve in-depth analysis. Our analysis indicates that the high anomalies of the surface-air temperature are predominantly due to the southwesterly flow from the eastern North Atlantic, with a weak contribution by southerly flow from the western Mediterranean. Backward trajectories based on the SSM/I and NCEP Reanalysis datasets traced from west-central Europe indicate that the warm air masses flowing into Europe originate in the southern North Atlantic, where the surface-air temperatures exceed by 15c or more the climatic norms in Europe for late-November or early-December. Because such large ocean-to-continent temperature differences characterize the winter conditions, we refer to this episode which started in late November as occurring in the early winter. In this season, with the sun low over the horizon in Europe, absorption of insolation by the surface has little significance. The effect of cloudiness, a corollary to the low-level maritime-air advection, is a warming by a reduction of heat loss (greenhouse effect). In contrast, in the summer, clouds, by reducing absorption of insolation, produce a cooling, effect at the surface.

  3. Snow cover and extreme winter warming events control flower abundance of some, but not all species in high arctic Svalbard.

    PubMed

    Semenchuk, Philipp R; Elberling, Bo; Cooper, Elisabeth J

    2013-08-01

    The High Arctic winter is expected to be altered through ongoing and future climate change. Winter precipitation and snow depth are projected to increase and melt out dates change accordingly. Also, snow cover and depth will play an important role in protecting plant canopy from increasingly more frequent extreme winter warming events. Flower production of many Arctic plants is dependent on melt out timing, since season length determines resource availability for flower preformation. We erected snow fences to increase snow depth and shorten growing season, and counted flowers of six species over 5 years, during which we experienced two extreme winter warming events. Most species were resistant to snow cover increase, but two species reduced flower abundance due to shortened growing seasons. Cassiope tetragona responded strongly with fewer flowers in deep snow regimes during years without extreme events, while Stellaria crassipes responded partly. Snow pack thickness determined whether winter warming events had an effect on flower abundance of some species. Warming events clearly reduced flower abundance in shallow but not in deep snow regimes of Cassiope tetragona, but only marginally for Dryas octopetala. However, the affected species were resilient and individuals did not experience any long term effects. In the case of short or cold summers, a subset of species suffered reduced reproductive success, which may affect future plant composition through possible cascading competition effects. Extreme winter warming events were shown to expose the canopy to cold winter air. The following summer most of the overwintering flower buds could not produce flowers. Thus reproductive success is reduced if this occurs in subsequent years. We conclude that snow depth influences flower abundance by altering season length and by protecting or exposing flower buds to cold winter air, but most species studied are resistant to changes. Winter warming events, often occurring

  4. Snow cover and extreme winter warming events control flower abundance of some, but not all species in high arctic Svalbard

    PubMed Central

    Semenchuk, Philipp R; Elberling, Bo; Cooper, Elisabeth J

    2013-01-01

    Abstract The High Arctic winter is expected to be altered through ongoing and future climate change. Winter precipitation and snow depth are projected to increase and melt out dates change accordingly. Also, snow cover and depth will play an important role in protecting plant canopy from increasingly more frequent extreme winter warming events. Flower production of many Arctic plants is dependent on melt out timing, since season length determines resource availability for flower preformation. We erected snow fences to increase snow depth and shorten growing season, and counted flowers of six species over 5 years, during which we experienced two extreme winter warming events. Most species were resistant to snow cover increase, but two species reduced flower abundance due to shortened growing seasons. Cassiope tetragona responded strongly with fewer flowers in deep snow regimes during years without extreme events, while Stellaria crassipes responded partly. Snow pack thickness determined whether winter warming events had an effect on flower abundance of some species. Warming events clearly reduced flower abundance in shallow but not in deep snow regimes of Cassiope tetragona, but only marginally for Dryas octopetala. However, the affected species were resilient and individuals did not experience any long term effects. In the case of short or cold summers, a subset of species suffered reduced reproductive success, which may affect future plant composition through possible cascading competition effects. Extreme winter warming events were shown to expose the canopy to cold winter air. The following summer most of the overwintering flower buds could not produce flowers. Thus reproductive success is reduced if this occurs in subsequent years. We conclude that snow depth influences flower abundance by altering season length and by protecting or exposing flower buds to cold winter air, but most species studied are resistant to changes. Winter warming events, often

  5. Impacts of warm winters and extreme rainstorms on the base consumption in a limed lake, southern Norway.

    PubMed

    Andersen, Dag O

    2003-09-01

    The chemical composition of a limed lake, the two main inlets and the outlet was monitored during a period of 3 years. The winters of 1991-1992 and 1992-1993 were unusually warm while the winter of 1993-1994 was more normal. The lake surface water was wind exposed in the warm winters and as a consequence of frequent turnovers the acid input from the catchment mixed with the whole lake water body. In the winter of 1993-1994, the lake was ice-covered for approximately 4 months. During this period the drainage water from the catchment flowed to the outlet of the lake in the upper 2-3 m of the water column and only some of the acid input was neutralised. This is compared to a complete neutralisation in the winter of 1992-1993. The in-lake loss of alkalinity during this warm winter was approximately 29 microeq/l (November-June) compared to approximately 7 microeq/l lakewater in 1993-1994. Acid drainage from the catchment induced by an extraordinary rainstorm with heavy sea-salt deposition contributed to the in-lake alkalinity consumption in spring 1993. As winter temperatures above 0 degrees C and more frequent rainstorms may be common due to expected global warming, future increased lime consumption in-lakes may be projected in acidified areas as southern Norway.

  6. Labile aluminium chemistry downstream a limestone treated lake and an acid tributary: effects of warm winters and extreme rainstorms.

    PubMed

    Andersen, Dag O

    2006-08-01

    The outlet from the limestone treated Lake Terjevann consisted mainly of well-mixed lake water (mean pH 6.1) during the ice-free seasons including the unusually warm winters of 1992 and 1993. However, during the ice-covered period acidic water (mean pH 4.8, mean inorganic aluminium (Al(i)) about 160 microg/l) from the catchment draining under the lake ice dominated. A downstream tributary was generally acid and rich in aluminium (mean pH 4.6, Al(i) about 230 microg/l). After an extreme rainstorm loaded with sea-salts cation exchange in the soil resulted in more than a doubling of the Al(i) concentration (reaching about 500 microg/l). It took 3-4 months until the Al(i) concentration returned to pre-event levels. During the ice-covered period, the acidic outlet and tributary waters resulted in acidic conditions below the confluence (pH<4.8, Al(i) about 150 microg/l) while during the ice-free periods the more neutral outlet water resulted in higher pH and lower Al(i) concentrations (pH>5.2, Al(i) about 95 microg/l). However, during the latter climatic conditions the water was most probably more harmful to fish due to hydrolysing and polymerizing aluminium. After the sea-salt event, the increased Al(i) concentration in the tributary made the zone below the confluence potentially more toxic (pH approximately 5, Al(i) approximately 250 microg/l). Expected global warming resulting in winter mean temperatures above 0 degrees C may eliminate the seasonal acidification of the outlet from limestone-treated lakes creating permanent toxic mixing zones in the confluence below acidic aluminium-rich tributaries. Besides, more frequent rainstorms as a consequence of global warming may increase the frequency of sea-salt events and the Al(i) concentrations in the mixing zones.

  7. Increasing frequency and duration of Arctic winter warming events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Graham, Robert M.; Cohen, Lana; Petty, Alek A.; Boisvert, Linette N.; Rinke, Annette; Hudson, Stephen R.; Nicolaus, Marcel; Granskog, Mats A.

    2017-07-01

    Near-surface air temperatures close to 0°C were observed in situ over sea ice in the central Arctic during the last three winter seasons. Here we use in situ winter (December-March) temperature observations, such as those from Soviet North Pole drifting stations and ocean buoys, to determine how common Arctic winter warming events are. Observations of winter warming events exist over most of the Arctic Basin. Temperatures exceeding -5°C were observed during >30% of winters from 1954 to 2010 by North Pole drifting stations or ocean buoys. Using the ERA-Interim record (1979-2016), we show that the North Pole (NP) region typically experiences 10 warming events (T2m > -10°C) per winter, compared with only five in the Pacific Central Arctic (PCA). There is a positive trend in the overall duration of winter warming events for both the NP region (4.25 days/decade) and PCA (1.16 days/decade), due to an increased number of events of longer duration.Plain Language SummaryDuring the last three <span class="hlt">winter</span> seasons, <span class="hlt">extreme</span> <span class="hlt">warming</span> events were observed over sea ice in the central Arctic Ocean. Each of these <span class="hlt">warming</span> events were associated with temperatures close to or above 0°C, which lasted for between 1 and 3 days. Typically temperatures in the Arctic at this time of year are below -30°C. Here we study past temperature observations in the Arctic to investigate how common <span class="hlt">winter</span> <span class="hlt">warming</span> events are. We use time temperature observations from expeditions such as Fram (1893-1896) and manned Soviet North Pole drifting ice stations from 1937 to 1991. These historic temperature records show that <span class="hlt">winter</span> <span class="hlt">warming</span> events have been observed over most of the Arctic Ocean. Despite a thin network of observation sites, <span class="hlt">winter</span> time temperatures above -5°C were directly observed approximately once every 3 years in the central Arctic Ocean between 1954 and 2010. <span class="hlt">Winter</span> <span class="hlt">warming</span> events are associated with storm systems originating in either the Atlantic</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19930016055','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19930016055"><span><span class="hlt">Winter</span> <span class="hlt">warming</span> from large volcanic eruptions</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Robock, Alan; Mao, Jianping</p> <p>1992-01-01</p> <p>An examination of the Northern Hemisphere <span class="hlt">winter</span> surface temperature patterns after the 12 largest volcanic eruptions from 1883-1992 shows <span class="hlt">warming</span> over Eurasia and North America and cooling over the Middle East which are significant at the 95 percent level. This pattern is found in the first <span class="hlt">winter</span> after tropical eruptions, in the first or second <span class="hlt">winter</span> after midlatitude eruptions, and in the second <span class="hlt">winter</span> after high latitude eruptions. The effects are independent of the hemisphere of the volcanoes. An enhanced zonal wind driven by heating of the tropical stratosphere by the volcanic aerosols is responsible for the regions of <span class="hlt">warming</span>, while the cooling is caused by blocking of incoming sunlight.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/scitech/biblio/6459161','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/scitech/biblio/6459161"><span><span class="hlt">Winter</span> <span class="hlt">warming</span> from large volcanic eruptions</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech">SciTech Connect</a></p> <p>Robock, A.; Mao, J.</p> <p>1992-01-01</p> <p>An examination of the Northern Hemisphere <span class="hlt">winter</span> surface temperature patterns after the 12 largest volcanic eruptions from 1883-1992 shows <span class="hlt">warming</span> over Eurasia and North America and cooling over the Middle East which are significant at the 95 percent level. This pattern is found in the first <span class="hlt">winter</span> after tropical eruptions, in the first or second <span class="hlt">winter</span> after midlatitude eruptions, and in the second <span class="hlt">winter</span> after high latitude eruptions. The effects are independent of the hemisphere of the volcanoes. An enhanced zonal wind driven by heating of the tropical stratosphere by the volcanic aerosols is responsible for the regions of <span class="hlt">warming</span>, while the cooling is caused by blocking of incoming sunlight.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19930040390&hterms=Volcanic+Eruptions&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D20%26Ntt%3DVolcanic%2BEruptions','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19930040390&hterms=Volcanic+Eruptions&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D20%26Ntt%3DVolcanic%2BEruptions"><span><span class="hlt">Winter</span> <span class="hlt">warming</span> from large volcanic eruptions</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Robock, Alan; Mao, Jianping</p> <p>1992-01-01</p> <p>An examination of the Northern Hemisphere <span class="hlt">winter</span> surface temperature patterns after the 12 largest volcanic eruptions from 1883-1992 shows <span class="hlt">warming</span> over Eurasia and North America and cooling over the Middle East which are significant at the 95-percent level. This pattern is found in the first <span class="hlt">winter</span> after tropical eruptions, in the first or second <span class="hlt">winter</span> after midlatitude eruptions, and in the second <span class="hlt">winter</span> after high latitude eruptions. The effects are independent of the hemisphere of the volcanoes. An enhanced zonal wind driven by heating of the tropical stratosphere by the volcanic aerosols is responsible for the regions of <span class="hlt">warming</span>, while the cooling is caused by blocking of incoming sunlight.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23600253','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23600253"><span>Variability in <span class="hlt">winter</span> climate and <span class="hlt">winter</span> <span class="hlt">extremes</span> reduces population growth of an alpine butterfly.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Roland, Jens; Matter, Stephen F</p> <p>2013-01-01</p> <p>We examined the long-term, 15-year pattern of population change in a network of 21 Rocky Mountain populations of Parnassius smintheus butterflies in response to climatic variation. We found that <span class="hlt">winter</span> values of the broadscale climate variable, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index, were a strong predictor of annual population growth, much more so than were endogenous biotic factors related to population density. The relationship between PDO and population growth was nonlinear. Populations declined in years with <span class="hlt">extreme</span> <span class="hlt">winter</span> PDO values, when there were either <span class="hlt">extremely</span> <span class="hlt">warm</span> or <span class="hlt">extremely</span> cold sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific relative to that in the western Pacific. Results suggest that more variable <span class="hlt">winters</span>, and more frequent <span class="hlt">extremely</span> cold or <span class="hlt">warm</span> <span class="hlt">winters</span>, will result in more frequent decline of these populations, a pattern exacerbated by the trend for increasingly variable <span class="hlt">winters</span> seen over the past century.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014NatCC...4..190S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014NatCC...4..190S"><span>Climate <span class="hlt">warming</span> will not decrease <span class="hlt">winter</span> mortality</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Staddon, Philip L.; Montgomery, Hugh E.; Depledge, Michael H.</p> <p>2014-03-01</p> <p>It is widely assumed by policymakers and health professionals that the harmful health impacts of anthropogenic climate change will be partially offset by a decline in excess <span class="hlt">winter</span> deaths (EWDs) in temperate countries, as <span class="hlt">winters</span> <span class="hlt">warm</span>. Recent UK government reports state that <span class="hlt">winter</span> <span class="hlt">warming</span> will decrease EWDs. Over the past few decades, however, the UK and other temperate countries have simultaneously experienced better housing, improved health care, higher incomes and greater awareness of the risks of cold. The link between <span class="hlt">winter</span> temperatures and EWDs may therefore no longer be as strong as before. Here we report on the key drivers that underlie year-to-year variations in EWDs. We found that the association of year-to-year variation in EWDs with the number of cold days in <span class="hlt">winter</span> ( <5 °C), evident until the mid 1970s, has disappeared, leaving only the incidence of influenza-like illnesses to explain any of the year-to-year variation in EWDs in the past decade. Although EWDs evidently do exist, <span class="hlt">winter</span> cold severity no longer predicts the numbers affected. We conclude that no evidence exists that EWDs in England and Wales will fall if <span class="hlt">winters</span> <span class="hlt">warm</span> with climate change. These findings have important implications for climate change health adaptation policies.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/scitech/biblio/6830052','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/scitech/biblio/6830052"><span><span class="hlt">Winter</span> <span class="hlt">warming</span> from large volcanic eruptions</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech">SciTech Connect</a></p> <p>Robock, A.; Jianping Mao )</p> <p>1992-12-24</p> <p>An examination of the Northern Hemisphere <span class="hlt">winter</span> surface temperature patterns after the 12 largest volcanic eruptions from 1883-1992 shows <span class="hlt">warming</span> over Eurasia and North America and cooling over the Middle East which are significant at the 95% level. This pattern is found in the first <span class="hlt">winter</span> after tropical eruptions, in the first or second <span class="hlt">winter</span> after midlatitude eruptions, and in the second <span class="hlt">winter</span> after high latitude eruptions. The effects are independent of the hemisphere of the volcanoes. An enhanced zonal wind driven by heating of the tropical stratosphere by the volcanic aerosols is responsible for the regions of <span class="hlt">warming</span>, while the cooling is caused by blocking of incoming sunlight. 21 refs., 2 figs., 1 tab.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/16574865','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/16574865"><span>Significant <span class="hlt">warming</span> of the Antarctic <span class="hlt">winter</span> troposphere.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Turner, J; Lachlan-Cope, T A; Colwell, S; Marshall, G J; Connolley, W M</p> <p>2006-03-31</p> <p>We report an undocumented major <span class="hlt">warming</span> of the Antarctic <span class="hlt">winter</span> troposphere that is larger than any previously identified regional tropospheric <span class="hlt">warming</span> on Earth. This result has come to light through an analysis of recently digitized and rigorously quality controlled Antarctic radiosonde observations. The data show that regional midtropospheric temperatures have increased at a statistically significant rate of 0.5 degrees to 0.7 degrees Celsius per decade over the past 30 years. Analysis of the time series of radiosonde temperatures indicates that the data are temporally homogeneous. The available data do not allow us to unambiguously assign a cause to the tropospheric <span class="hlt">warming</span> at this stage.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4610409','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4610409"><span><span class="hlt">Winter</span> Season Mortality: Will Climate <span class="hlt">Warming</span> Bring Benefits?</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Kinney, Patrick L.; Schwartz, Joel; Pascal, Mathilde; Petkova, Elisaveta; Tertre, Alain Le; Medina, Sylvia; Vautard, Robert</p> <p>2015-01-01</p> <p><span class="hlt">Extreme</span> heat events are associated with spikes in mortality, yet death rates are on average highest during the coldest months of the year. Under the assumption that most <span class="hlt">winter</span> excess mortality is due to cold temperature, many previous studies have concluded that <span class="hlt">winter</span> mortality will substantially decline in a <span class="hlt">warming</span> climate. We analyzed whether and to what extent cold temperatures are associated with excess <span class="hlt">winter</span> mortality across multiple cities and over multiple years within individual cities, using daily temperature and mortality data from 36 US cities (1985-2006) and 3 French cities (1971-2007). Comparing across cities, we found that excess <span class="hlt">winter</span> mortality did not depend on seasonal temperature range, and was no lower in warmer vs. colder cities, suggesting that temperature is not a key driver of <span class="hlt">winter</span> excess mortality. Using regression models within monthly strata, we found that variability in daily mortality within cities was not strongly influenced by <span class="hlt">winter</span> temperature. Finally we found that inadequate control for seasonality in analyses of the effects of cold temperatures led to spuriously large assumed cold effects, and erroneous attribution of <span class="hlt">winter</span> mortality to cold temperatures. Our findings suggest that reductions in cold-related mortality under <span class="hlt">warming</span> climate may be much smaller than some have assumed. This should be of interest to researchers and policy makers concerned with projecting future health effects of climate change and developing relevant adaptation strategies. PMID:26495037</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015ERL....10f4016K','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015ERL....10f4016K"><span><span class="hlt">Winter</span> season mortality: will climate <span class="hlt">warming</span> bring benefits?</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Kinney, Patrick L.; Schwartz, Joel; Pascal, Mathilde; Petkova, Elisaveta; Le Tertre, Alain; Medina, Sylvia; Vautard, Robert</p> <p>2015-06-01</p> <p><span class="hlt">Extreme</span> heat events are associated with spikes in mortality, yet death rates are on average highest during the coldest months of the year. Under the assumption that most <span class="hlt">winter</span> excess mortality is due to cold temperature, many previous studies have concluded that <span class="hlt">winter</span> mortality will substantially decline in a <span class="hlt">warming</span> climate. We analyzed whether and to what extent cold temperatures are associated with excess <span class="hlt">winter</span> mortality across multiple cities and over multiple years within individual cities, using daily temperature and mortality data from 36 US cities (1985-2006) and 3 French cities (1971-2007). Comparing across cities, we found that excess <span class="hlt">winter</span> mortality did not depend on seasonal temperature range, and was no lower in warmer vs. colder cities, suggesting that temperature is not a key driver of <span class="hlt">winter</span> excess mortality. Using regression models within monthly strata, we found that variability in daily mortality within cities was not strongly influenced by <span class="hlt">winter</span> temperature. Finally we found that inadequate control for seasonality in analyses of the effects of cold temperatures led to spuriously large assumed cold effects, and erroneous attribution of <span class="hlt">winter</span> mortality to cold temperatures. Our findings suggest that reductions in cold-related mortality under <span class="hlt">warming</span> climate may be much smaller than some have assumed. This should be of interest to researchers and policy makers concerned with projecting future health effects of climate change and developing relevant adaptation strategies.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1984Ge%26Ae..24..592L','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1984Ge%26Ae..24..592L"><span>The <span class="hlt">winter</span> anomaly and sudden stratospheric <span class="hlt">warmings</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Lastovicka, J.</p> <p>1984-08-01</p> <p>Large-scale stratospheric <span class="hlt">warmings</span> are examined on the basis of 22-year measurements of radio-wave absorption at the Panska Ves observatory. It is shown that these <span class="hlt">warmings</span>, accompanied by the reversal of wind direction in the lower thermosphere, lead not to an increase but to a decrease in the radio-wave absorption in the lower ionosphere, i.e., to the disappearance of the <span class="hlt">winter</span> anomaly. It is concluded that the absorption decrease is connected not only with cooling in the mesopause region but also with a total change in the dynamic conditions of the lower ionosphere. The behavior of the <span class="hlt">winter</span> anomaly in the 1979-1980 and 1981-1982 periods is examined in detail.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ready.gov/winter-weather','NIH-MEDLINEPLUS'); return false;" href="https://www.ready.gov/winter-weather"><span><span class="hlt">Winter</span> Storms and <span class="hlt">Extreme</span> Cold</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://medlineplus.gov/">MedlinePlus</a></p> <p></p> <p></p> <p>... Us Social Media Contact Us FAQS Publications Emergency Alerts Home Search × Close Search Enter Search Term(s): Languages × ... take when you receive a <span class="hlt">winter</span> weather storm alert from the National Weather Service for your local ...</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016EGUGA..18..798K','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016EGUGA..18..798K"><span><span class="hlt">Extreme</span> <span class="hlt">warming</span> in the NE Atlantic in the <span class="hlt">winter</span> period 2002-2012 - an analysis with the regional atmospheric model COSMO-CLM and the Arctic System Reanalysis.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Kohnemann, Svenja; Heinemann, Guenther; Gutjahr, Oliver; Bromwich, David H.</p> <p>2016-04-01</p> <p>The high-resolution atmospheric model COSMO-CLM (CCLM, German Meteorological Service) is used to simulate the 2m-temperature and the boundary layer structures in the Arctic with focus on the NE Atlantic section the <span class="hlt">winter</span> periods (Nov-Apr) between 2002 and 2015. The CCLM simulations have a horizontal resolution of 15 km for the whole Arctic. The comparable Arctic System Reanalysis data (ASR, Byrd Polar and Climate Research Center), which has been optimized for the Arctic, are available for the same time period with a horizontal resolution of 30 km. In addition, climatological data from Automatic Weather Stations (AWS) stations are used as verification. The comparison between the CCLM simulations and the ASR data shows a high agreement. Also the verification of both data sets with AWS and Era-Interim data shows a very high correlation for the air temperature. Slight differences between CCLM and ASR are recognizable in the <span class="hlt">extreme</span> values as CCLM has the better ice information assimilated and the higher resolution during simulations. Time series of monthly mean based 2m-temperature indicate an enormous increase for the single months for the NE Atlantic and especially the region around the Siberian Island Novaya Zemlya. For example the CCLM March increase amounts up to 16 °C for the regional maximum for the period 2002-2012. The strong increase is mainly reducible to the decreasing sea ice situation in that region during the same time.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/17763722','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/17763722"><span>[Responses of <span class="hlt">winter</span> wheat growth to <span class="hlt">winter</span> <span class="hlt">warming</span> in Gansu Province].</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Pu, Jin-yong; Yao, Yu-bi; Ma, Peng-li; Deng, Zhen-yong; Wang, Wei-tai; Zhang, Mou-cao</p> <p>2007-06-01</p> <p>Based on the observation data of the air temperature at Tianshui and Xifeng in 1951-2005 and of the phenology of <span class="hlt">winter</span> wheat at Tianshui and Xifeng in 1981-2003, the tendency of <span class="hlt">winter</span> <span class="hlt">warming</span> in past 50 years and the responses of <span class="hlt">winter</span> wheat growth to climate <span class="hlt">warming</span> in Gansu Province were analyzed. The results showed that the growth and development of <span class="hlt">winter</span> wheat were seriously influenced by <span class="hlt">winter</span> <span class="hlt">warming</span>. In recent 20 years or more, the overwintering mortality of <span class="hlt">winter</span> wheat dropped to <2% , overwintering days reduced by 7-8 days, whole growth period shorted by 8-10 days, and jointing-flowering period extended by 7 days, which would benefit the production of <span class="hlt">winter</span> wheat and the utilization of climatic resource. However, the higher <span class="hlt">winter</span> temperature and lesser precipitation also made the grain yield instable and the plant diseases and insect pests more frequent, resulting in more uncertain factors in <span class="hlt">winter</span> wheat safe production.</p> </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li class="active"><span>1</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_2");'>2</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_3");'>3</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_4");'>4</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_5");'>5</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div><!-- col-sm-12 --> </div><!-- row --> </div><!-- page_1 --> <div id="page_2" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>1</a></li> <li class="active"><span>2</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_3");'>3</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_4");'>4</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_5");'>5</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="21"> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015EGUGA..1711159M','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015EGUGA..1711159M"><span>Properties of stratospheric <span class="hlt">warming</span> events during northern <span class="hlt">winter</span>.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Maury, Pauline; Claud, Chantal; Manzini, Elisa; Hauchecorne, Alain; Keckhut, Philippe</p> <p>2015-04-01</p> <p>During wintertime the polar mid-stratosphere is characterized by the setting up of westerly winds around the pole; the so-called polar vortex. The polar vortex is one of the most variable features of the zonal-mean circulation of the earth atmosphere, due to a highly non linear interaction between planetary-scale Rossby waves and the zonal flow. Indeed, the interaction between the upward tropospheric propagating waves and the polar vortex leads to a zonal flow weakening, implying a large day to day vortex variability. In the most dramatic cases the polar vortex breaks down, the stratospheric polar flow can reverse its direction and the temperatures can rise locally by more than 50K in a span of a few days. Such phenomena are known as Sudden Stratospheric <span class="hlt">Warmings</span> (SSWs) and constitute, since their discovery, the most impressive dynamical events in the physical climate system. There are however situations where the polar vortex does not break down, but temperatures increase dramatically. In this study, we propose a global characterization of stratospheric <span class="hlt">warmings</span> situations based on a temperature threshold in the 50-10hPa layer, in order to assess the properties of daily stratospheric temperature variability during the northern <span class="hlt">winter</span>. The originality of this approch consists in evaluating the wintertime positive temperature anomalies in terms of intensity and duration. We will show that there is a wide spectrum of <span class="hlt">warming</span> types. The major SSWs are the most <span class="hlt">extreme</span>, but there are other events that share some common properties with the major ones. Though neglected, these latter <span class="hlt">warmings</span> may play a key role in the coupling of the stratosphere-troposphere system.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28167038','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28167038"><span>Deacclimation may be crucial for <span class="hlt">winter</span> survival of cereals under <span class="hlt">warming</span> climate.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Rapacz, Marcin; Jurczyk, Barbara; Sasal, Monika</p> <p>2017-03-01</p> <p>Climate <span class="hlt">warming</span> can change the <span class="hlt">winter</span> weather patterns. Warmer temperatures during <span class="hlt">winter</span> result in a lower risk of <span class="hlt">extreme</span> freezing events. On the other hand the predicted <span class="hlt">warm</span> gaps during <span class="hlt">winter</span> will decrease their freezing tolerance. Both contradict effects will affect <span class="hlt">winter</span> survival but their resultant effect is unclear. In this paper, we demonstrate that climate <span class="hlt">warming</span> may result in a decrease in <span class="hlt">winter</span> survival of plants. A field study of winterhardiness of common wheat and triticale was established at 11 locations and repeated during three subsequent <span class="hlt">winters</span>. The freezing tolerance of the plants was studied after controlled cold acclimation and de-acclimation using both plant survival analysis and chlorophyll fluorescence measurements. Cold deacclimation resistance was shown to be independent from cold acclimation ability. Further, cold deacclimation resistance appeared to be crucial for overwintering when deacclimation conditions occurred in the field. The shortening of uninterrupted cold acclimation may increase cold deacclimation efficiency, which could threaten plant survival during warmer <span class="hlt">winters</span>. Measurements of chlorophyll fluorescence transient showed some differences triggered by freezing before and after deacclimation. We conclude that cold deacclimation resistance should be considered in the breeding of <span class="hlt">winter</span> cereals and in future models of <span class="hlt">winter</span> damage risk. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013EGUGA..15.2870G','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013EGUGA..15.2870G"><span>Global <span class="hlt">warming</span> and <span class="hlt">extreme</span> storm surges</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Grinsted, Aslak</p> <p>2013-04-01</p> <p>I will show empirical evidence for how global <span class="hlt">warming</span> has changed <span class="hlt">extreme</span> storm surge statistics for different regions in the world. Are there any detectable changes beyond what we expect from sea level rise. What does this suggest about the future of hurricane surges such as from hurricane Katrina and superstorm Sandy?</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012EGUGA..14.9886A','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012EGUGA..14.9886A"><span>Recent high mountain rockfalls and <span class="hlt">warm</span> daily temperature <span class="hlt">extremes</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Allen, S. K.; Huggel, C.</p> <p>2012-04-01</p> <p> temperatures in the 7 days prior to failure, (between 6 - 9°C above average), and in three of these cases, temperatures exceeded even the 99th percentile. A further 3 events occurring in this region during the longer term heatwave of 2003 similarly were also preceded by <span class="hlt">extreme</span> daily maximum temperatures. This relationship holds for other failures analysed in the northern, and eastern regions of the central Alps. Most interestingly, the weekly temperature anomaly, and the proportion of '<span class="hlt">extreme</span>' days, generally decreases as the analyses are extended from 1, 2, 3 and 4 weeks out from each failure. In other words, there is a notable <span class="hlt">warming</span>, and conditions become increasingly <span class="hlt">extreme</span> in the lead-up to slope failure. In addition to <span class="hlt">extreme</span> summer temperatures, our analyses points towards a possible role of unusually <span class="hlt">warm</span> autumn and spring days influencing slope stability. A linkage between short term periods of <span class="hlt">extremely</span> <span class="hlt">warm</span> temperatures and rock failure may be reasonably facilitated through melt water operating within rock discontinues, processes that have recently been measured in high-mountain rock faces, and are considered to be particularly important in spring/early summer melt periods. It is not clear whether slope failures during <span class="hlt">warm</span> autumn periods can be linked to the same processes. Rockfalls in the <span class="hlt">winter</span> months remain rare, however, the 27 December 2011 rock avalanche at Piz Cengalo, Val Bregaglia, Switzerland (ca 2-3million m3), occurred following the warmest year on record, potentially reinforcing the role of longer term <span class="hlt">warming</span> destabilising bedrock with permafrost at depth.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFMGC44A..03J','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFMGC44A..03J"><span>Increasing Temperature <span class="hlt">Extremes</span> during the Recent Global <span class="hlt">Warming</span> Hiatus</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Johnson, N. C.; Kosaka, Y.; Xie, S. P.</p> <p>2015-12-01</p> <p>Although the recent global <span class="hlt">warming</span> hiatus has featured a slowdown in the annual, global mean surface air temperature trend, temperature <span class="hlt">extremes</span> have exhibited contrasting changes, as both wintertime cold and summertime hot <span class="hlt">extremes</span> have increased over Northern Hemisphere (NH) land from 2002-2014. To investigate the sources of NH temperature <span class="hlt">extreme</span> variability, we use multiple linear regression analysis that includes as predictors the typical drivers of global-scale climate variability - tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures (SST), volcanic aerosols, solar variability, and the linear time trend. This analysis suggests that natural forcings, including tropical SSTs and solar variations, have contributed to the recent increase in NH <span class="hlt">winter</span> cold <span class="hlt">extremes</span>. The magnitude of the recent increase in summer hot <span class="hlt">extremes</span> is only captured after including an additional SST predictor for a pattern that resembles the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, which suggests the importance of Atlantic Ocean SSTs for recent increases in hot <span class="hlt">extremes</span>. When the regression models are applied to local, grid point scales, they indicate the promise for substantial skill in seasonal predictions of <span class="hlt">extreme</span> temperature over some NH regions. Overall, this work reveals important sources of natural variability in <span class="hlt">extreme</span> temperature trends superimposed upon the long-term increase of hot <span class="hlt">extremes</span> and decrease of cold <span class="hlt">extremes</span>.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28549655','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28549655"><span>Experimental <span class="hlt">winter</span> <span class="hlt">warming</span> modifies thermal performance and primes acorn ants for <span class="hlt">warm</span> weather.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>MacLean, Heidi J; Penick, Clint A; Dunn, Robert R; Diamond, Sarah E</p> <p>2017-07-01</p> <p>The frequency of <span class="hlt">warm</span> <span class="hlt">winter</span> days is increasing under global climate change, but how organisms respond to warmer <span class="hlt">winters</span> is not well understood. Most studies focus on growing season responses to <span class="hlt">warming</span>. Locomotor performance is often highly sensitive to temperature, and can determine fitness outcomes through a variety of mechanisms including resource acquisition and predator escape. As a consequence, locomotor performance, and its impacts on fitness, may be strongly affected by <span class="hlt">winter</span> <span class="hlt">warming</span> in <span class="hlt">winter</span>-active species. Here we use the acorn ant, Temnothorax curvispinosus, to explore how thermal performance (temperature-driven plasticity) in running speed is influenced by experimental <span class="hlt">winter</span> <span class="hlt">warming</span> of 3-5°C above ambient in a field setting. We used running speed as a measure of performance as it is a common locomotor trait that influences acquisition of nest sites and food in acorn ants. Experimental <span class="hlt">winter</span> <span class="hlt">warming</span> significantly altered thermal performance for running speed at high (26 and 36°C) but not low test temperatures (6 and 16°C). Although we saw little differentiation in thermal performance at cooler test temperatures, we saw a marked increase in running speed at the hotter test temperatures for ants that experienced warmer <span class="hlt">winters</span> compared with those that experienced cooler <span class="hlt">winters</span>. Our results provide evidence that overwintering temperatures can substantially influence organismal performance, and suggest that we cannot ignore overwintering effects when forecasting organismal responses to environmental changes in temperature. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1998IJCli..18..725G','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1998IJCli..18..725G"><span>Relationships between <span class="hlt">winter</span> atmospheric circulation patterns and <span class="hlt">extreme</span> tree growth anomalies in the Sierra Nevada</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Garfin, Gregg M.</p> <p>1998-06-01</p> <p>Tree-ring data from mid-elevation (2000 m) giant sequoia (Sequoiadendron giganteum) and high elevation (3500 m) pines (Pinus balfouriana, Pinus albicaulis) were used to select <span class="hlt">extreme</span> growth years from which temperature, precipitation and large-scale <span class="hlt">winter</span> (November-March, NM) 500 mb circulation patterns associated with the <span class="hlt">extreme</span> tree growth anomalies were examined.<span class="hlt">Winters</span> preceding <span class="hlt">extreme</span> high growth in both giant sequoia and pines are <span class="hlt">warm</span> and wet and are characterized by anomalous low pressure in the northeastern Pacific Ocean and a tendency for southwesterly flow and advection of <span class="hlt">warm</span> maritime air into California. For the pines, such <span class="hlt">winters</span> exhibit a pattern of anomalous low pressure in the northern Pacific, anomalous high pressure over northwestern Canada and anomalous low pressure across the southern US. NM 500 mb heights suggest more meridional circulation during the <span class="hlt">warm</span> and dry <span class="hlt">winters</span> preceding <span class="hlt">extreme</span> low growth in giant sequoia. Atmospheric circulation during these <span class="hlt">winters</span> exhibits a persistent trough/ridge pattern between the central Pacific and the western US. Storms are deflected away from California during these <span class="hlt">winters</span>. NM atmospheric circulation patterns associated with <span class="hlt">extreme</span> low growth in the pines exhibit maximum westerlies north of their mean position and the tendency for enhanced ridging in the northeast Pacific, which advects cool dry air into the Sierra Nevada. As dendroclimatic reconstructions are more frequently employed in order to better understand past variability of temperature and precipitation, synoptic dendroclimatological studies such as this one provide useful insights about atmospheric circulation.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015EGUGA..17.9729V','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015EGUGA..17.9729V"><span>Changes in <span class="hlt">winter</span> <span class="hlt">warming</span> events in the Nordic Arctic Region</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Vikhamar-Schuler, Dagrun; Isaksen, Ketil; Haugen, Jan Erik; Bjerke, Jarle Werner; Tømmervik, Hans</p> <p>2015-04-01</p> <p>In recent years <span class="hlt">winter</span> <span class="hlt">warming</span> events are frequently reported from Arctic areas. Extraordinarily <span class="hlt">warm</span> weather episodes, occasionally combined with intense rainfall, cause severe ecological disturbance and great challenges for Arctic infrastructure. For example, the formation of ground ice due to <span class="hlt">winter</span> rain or melting prevents reindeer from grazing, leads to vegetation browning, and impacts soil temperatures. The infrastructure may be affected by avalanches and floods resulting from intense snowmelt. The aim of our analysis is to study changes in <span class="hlt">warm</span> spells during <span class="hlt">winter</span> in the Nordic Arctic Region, here defined as the regions in Norway, Sweden and Finland north of the Arctic circle (66.5°N), including the Arctic islands Svalbard and Jan Mayen. Within this study area we have selected the longest available high quality observation series with daily temperature and precipitation. For studying future climate we use available regionally downscaled scenarios. We analyse three time periods: 1) the past 50-100 years, 2) the present (last 15 years, 2000-2014) and 3) the future (next 50-100 years). We define an extended <span class="hlt">winter</span> season (October-April) and further divide it into three subseasons: 1) Early <span class="hlt">winter</span> (October and November), 2) Mid-<span class="hlt">winter</span> (December, January and February) and 3) Late-<span class="hlt">winter</span> (March and April). We identify <span class="hlt">warm</span> spells using two different classification criteria: a) days with temperature above 0°C (the melting temperature); and b) days with temperature in excess of the 90th percentile of the 1985-2014 temperature for each subseason. Both wet and dry <span class="hlt">warm</span> spells are analysed. We compare the results for the mainland stations (maritime and inland stations) with the Arctic islands. All stations have very high frequency of <span class="hlt">warm</span> weather events in the period 1930-1940s and for the last 15 years (2000-2014). For the most recent period the largest increase in number of <span class="hlt">warm</span> spells are observed at the northernmost stations. We also find a continuation of this</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AcGeo..64.2609T','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AcGeo..64.2609T"><span><span class="hlt">Extremely</span> Cold <span class="hlt">Winter</span> Months in Europe (1951-2010)</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Twardosz, Robert; Kossowska-Cezak, Urszula; Pełech, Sebastian</p> <p>2016-12-01</p> <p>Investigation of <span class="hlt">extreme</span> thermal conditions is important from the perspective of global <span class="hlt">warming</span>. Therefore, this study has been undertaken in order to determine the frequency, timing and spatial extent of <span class="hlt">extremely</span> cold months in <span class="hlt">winter</span> time at 60 weather stations across Europe over a sixty-year period from 1951 to 2010. <span class="hlt">Extremely</span> cold months (ECMs) are defined as months in which the average air temperature is lower than the corresponding multi-annual average by at least 2 standard deviations. Half of all the ECMs occurred in the years 1951-1970 (33 out of 67). The lowest number of ECMs was recorded in the decade 1991-2000, but since the beginning of the 21st century, their density and territorial extent has started to increase again. The <span class="hlt">extremely</span> cold months with ECMs of the greatest spatial extent, covering at least one third of the stations (over 20 stations), included: February 1954 (22), February 1956 (36), January 1963 (25), and January 1987 (23 stations).</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2008cosp...37.1129G','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2008cosp...37.1129G"><span>Models of <span class="hlt">warm</span> and cold regimes of the <span class="hlt">winter</span> stratosphere</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Guryanov, Vladimir</p> <p></p> <p>Research of fields of geopotential height, temperature, zonal and meridional wind in stratosphere was carried out using the Met Office data for <span class="hlt">winter</span> seasons from 1991/1992 to 2006-2007. The above analyzes shows that change within season thermodynamic values at high latitudes during the <span class="hlt">winter</span> is higher than seasonal or longitudinal change. Hence the average models of the cold periods of high latitudes and average monthly values have a limited applicability. In 1982 International Standard Organization (ISO) also acknowledged the necessity for creating of special models for "<span class="hlt">warm</span>" and "cold" regimes of the high latitude <span class="hlt">winter</span> stratosphere. <span class="hlt">Warm</span> and cold stratosphere states were distinguished by the presence or absence of stratospheric <span class="hlt">warmings</span> of variable intensity exceeding 10 hPa. Special maps and latitude-longitude cuts of mean values and mean square deviations of the geopotential height, temperature, zonal and meridional wind have been created for these regimes. Models of "<span class="hlt">warm</span>" and "cold" regimes also included zonal harmonics with wave numbers 1 and 2 for all observed meteorological fields</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFMGC41G..03S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFMGC41G..03S"><span>Changes in <span class="hlt">Extreme</span> <span class="hlt">Warm</span> and Cold Temperatures Associated with 20th Century Global <span class="hlt">Warming</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Sardeshmukh, P. D.; Compo, G. P.; McColl, C.; Penland, C.</p> <p>2015-12-01</p> <p>Has 20thcentury global <span class="hlt">warming</span> resulted in increases of <span class="hlt">extreme</span> <span class="hlt">warm</span> temperatures and decreases of <span class="hlt">extreme</span> cold temperatures around the globe? One would certainly expect this to be so if the changes in the <span class="hlt">extreme</span> temperature probabilities were determined only by the mean shift and not by changes in the width and/or shape of the temperature distribution. In reality, however, the latter two effects could also be important. Even ignoring changes of shape, it is easily shown that a 25% reduction of standard deviation, for example, can completely offset the effect of a mean positive shift of 0.5 standardized units on the probabilities of <span class="hlt">extreme</span> positive values. A 25% increase of standard deviation can similarly offset the effect of the mean shift on the probabilities of <span class="hlt">extreme</span> negative values. It is possible for such changes of standard deviation to occur in regions of large circulation and storminess changes associated with global <span class="hlt">warming</span>. With this caveat in mind, we have investigated the change in probability of <span class="hlt">extreme</span> weekly-averaged near-surface air temperatures, in both <span class="hlt">winter</span> and summer, from the first half-century (1901-1950) to the last half-century (1960-2009) of the 1901 to 2009 period. We have done this using two newly available global atmospheric datasets (ERA-20C and 20CR-v2c) and large ensembles of global coupled climate model simulations of this period, plus very large ensembles of uncoupled atmospheric model simulations of our own. The results are revealing. In the tropics, the changes in the <span class="hlt">extreme</span> <span class="hlt">warm</span> and cold temperature probabilities are indeed generally consistent with those expected from the mean shift of the distribution. Outside the tropics, however, they are generally significantly inconsistent with the mean temperature shift, with many regions showing little or no change in the positive temperature <span class="hlt">extremes</span> and in some instances even a decrease. In such regions, it is clear that the change in the temperature standard deviation is</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70040311','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70040311"><span>Passive thermal refugia provided <span class="hlt">warm</span> water for Florida manatees during the severe <span class="hlt">winter</span> of 2009-2010</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a></p> <p>Stith, B.M.; Slone, D.H.; de Wit, M.; Edwards, H.H.; Langtimm, C.A.; Swain, E.D.; Soderqvist, L.E.; Reid, J.P.</p> <p>2012-01-01</p> <p>Haloclines induced by freshwater inflow over tidal water have been identified as an important mechanism for maintaining <span class="hlt">warm</span> water in passive thermal refugia (PTR) used by Florida manatees Trichechus manatus latirostris during <span class="hlt">winter</span> in <span class="hlt">extreme</span> southwestern Florida. Record-setting cold during <span class="hlt">winter</span> 2009–2010 resulted in an unprecedented number of manatee deaths, adding to concerns that PTR may provide inadequate thermal protection during severe cold periods. Hydrological data from 2009–2010 indicate that 2 canal systems in the Ten Thousand Islands (TTI) region acted as PTR and maintained <span class="hlt">warm</span> bottom-water temperatures, even during severe and prolonged cold periods. Aerial survey counts of live and dead manatees in TTI during the <span class="hlt">winter</span> of 2009–2010 suggest that these PTR were effective at preventing mass mortality from hypothermia, in contrast to the nearby Everglades region, which lacks similar artificial PTR and showed high manatee carcass counts. Hydrological data from <span class="hlt">winter</span> 2008–2009 confirmed earlier findings that without haloclines these artificial PTR may become ineffective as <span class="hlt">warm</span>-water sites. Tidal pumping of groundwater appears to provide additional heat to bottom water during low tide cycles, but the associated thermal inversion is not observed unless salinity stratification is present. The finding that halocline-driven PTR can maintain <span class="hlt">warm</span> water even under <span class="hlt">extreme</span> <span class="hlt">winter</span> conditions suggests that they may have significant potential as <span class="hlt">warm</span>-water sites. However, availability and conflicting uses of freshwater and other management issues may make halocline-driven PTR unreliable or difficult to manage during <span class="hlt">winter</span>.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017GeoRL..44.7011D','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017GeoRL..44.7011D"><span>Regional <span class="hlt">warming</span> of hot <span class="hlt">extremes</span> accelerated by surface energy fluxes</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Donat, M. G.; Pitman, A. J.; Seneviratne, S. I.</p> <p>2017-07-01</p> <p>Strong regional differences exist in how hot temperature <span class="hlt">extremes</span> increase under global <span class="hlt">warming</span>. Using an ensemble of coupled climate models, we examine the regional <span class="hlt">warming</span> rates of hot <span class="hlt">extremes</span> relative to annual average <span class="hlt">warming</span> rates in the same regions. We identify hot spots of accelerated <span class="hlt">warming</span> of model-simulated hot <span class="hlt">extremes</span> in Europe, North America, South America, and Southeast China. These hot spots indicate where the <span class="hlt">warm</span> tail of a distribution of temperatures increases faster than the average and are robust across most Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models. Exploring the conditions on the specific day when the hot <span class="hlt">extreme</span> occurs demonstrates that the hot spots are explained by changes in the surface energy fluxes consistent with drying soils. However, the model-simulated accelerated <span class="hlt">warming</span> of hot <span class="hlt">extremes</span> appears inconsistent with observations, except over Europe. The simulated acceleration of hot <span class="hlt">extremes</span> may therefore be unreliable, a result that necessitates a reevaluation of how climate models resolve the relevant terrestrial processes.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014NatCC...4.1077M','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014NatCC...4.1077M"><span>The impacts of temperature anomalies and political orientation on perceived <span class="hlt">winter</span> <span class="hlt">warming</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>McCright, Aaron M.; Dunlap, Riley E.; Xiao, Chenyang</p> <p>2014-12-01</p> <p>Although perceptions of common weather phenomena moderately align with instrumental measurements of such phenomena, the evidence that weather or climatic conditions influence beliefs about anthropogenic climate change is mixed. This study addresses both foci, which are important to scholars who investigate human-environment interactions and observers who expect greater exposure to weather or climate <span class="hlt">extremes</span> to translate into stronger support for climate change adaptive measures and mitigative policies. We analyse the extent to which state-level <span class="hlt">winter</span> temperature anomalies influence the likelihood of perceiving local <span class="hlt">winter</span> temperatures to be warmer than usual and attributing these warmer temperatures mainly to global <span class="hlt">warming</span>. We show that actual temperature anomalies influence perceived <span class="hlt">warming</span> but not attribution of such warmer-than-usual <span class="hlt">winter</span> temperatures to global <span class="hlt">warming</span>. Rather, the latter is influenced more by perceived scientific agreement; beliefs about the current onset, human cause, threat and seriousness of global <span class="hlt">warming</span>; and political orientation. This is not surprising given the politicization of climate science and political polarization on climate change beliefs in recent years. These results suggest that personal experience with weather or climate variability may help cultivate support for adaptive measures, but it may not increase support for mitigation policies.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017EGUGA..19.4192S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017EGUGA..19.4192S"><span>Does stratosphereic sudden <span class="hlt">warming</span> occur more frequently during ENSO <span class="hlt">winters</span> than during normal <span class="hlt">winters</span>?</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Son, Seok-Woo; Song, Kanghyun</p> <p>2017-04-01</p> <p>Stratospheric sudden <span class="hlt">warming</span> (SSW) events exhibit pronounced interannual variability. Based on WMO definition of SSW, it has been suggested that SSW events occur more preferably during El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) <span class="hlt">winters</span> (both El Niño and La Niña <span class="hlt">winters</span>) than during normal <span class="hlt">winters</span>. This nonlinear relationship is re-examined here by considering six different definitions of SSW. For all definitions, SSW events are detected more frequently during El Niño <span class="hlt">winters</span> than during normal <span class="hlt">winters</span>, in consistent with an enhanced planetary-scale wave activity. However, a systematic relationship is not found during La Niña <span class="hlt">winters</span>. While two SSW definitions, including WMO definition, show an increased SSW frequency during La Niña <span class="hlt">winters</span>, other definitions show no change or even a reduced SSW frequency. This result is insensitive to the choice of reanalysis datasets and ENSO index, indicating that the reported ENSO-SSW relationship is not robust but dependent on the details of SSW definition.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017EGUGA..19.5868Y','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017EGUGA..19.5868Y"><span>Increasing climate <span class="hlt">extremes</span> under global <span class="hlt">warming</span> - What is the driving force?</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Yoon, Jin-Ho</p> <p>2017-04-01</p> <p>More climate <span class="hlt">extreme</span> events have occurred in recent years, including the continual development of <span class="hlt">extreme</span> drought in California, the severe cold <span class="hlt">winters</span> in the eastern U.S. since 2014, 2015 Washington drought, and excessive wildfire events over Alaska in 2015. These have been casually attributed to global <span class="hlt">warming</span>. However, a need for further understanding of mechanisms responsible for climate <span class="hlt">extremes</span> is growing. In this presentation, we'll use sets of climate model simulation that designed to identify the role of the oceanic feedback in increasing climate <span class="hlt">extremes</span> under global <span class="hlt">warming</span>. One is with a fully coupled climate model forced by 1% ramping CO2, and the other is with an atmosphere only model forced by the same CO2 forcing. By contrasting these two, an importance of the oceanic feedback in increasing climate <span class="hlt">extremes</span> under global <span class="hlt">warming</span> can be diagnosed.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFMGC41A1074Y','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFMGC41A1074Y"><span>Increasing climate <span class="hlt">extremes</span> under global <span class="hlt">warming</span> - What is the driving force?</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Yoon, J.; Wang, S. Y.; Gillies, R. R.; Hipps, L.; Kravitz, B.; Rasch, P. J.</p> <p>2015-12-01</p> <p>More climate <span class="hlt">extreme</span> events have occurred in recent years, including the continual development of <span class="hlt">extreme</span> drought in California, the severe cold <span class="hlt">winters</span> in the eastern U.S. since 2014, 2015 Washington drought, and excessive wildfire events over Alaska in 2015. These have been casually attributed to global <span class="hlt">warming</span>. However, a need for further understanding of mechanisms responsible for climate <span class="hlt">extremes</span> is growing. In this presentation, we'll use sets of climate model simulation that designed to identify the role of the oceanic feedback in increasing climate <span class="hlt">extremes</span> under global <span class="hlt">warming</span>. One is with a fully coupled climate model forced by 1% ramping CO2, and the other is with an atmosphere only model forced by the same CO2 forcing. By contrasting these two, an importance of the oceanic feedback in increasing climate <span class="hlt">extremes</span> under global <span class="hlt">warming</span> can be diagnosed.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=GL-2002-001455&hterms=warm+global&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D20%26Ntt%3Dwarm%2Bglobal','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=GL-2002-001455&hterms=warm+global&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D20%26Ntt%3Dwarm%2Bglobal"><span>Terra Data Confirm <span class="hlt">Warm</span>, Dry U.S. <span class="hlt">Winter</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p></p> <p>2002-01-01</p> <p>New maps of land surface temperature and snow cover produced by NASA's Terra satellite show this year's <span class="hlt">winter</span> was warmer than last year's, and the snow line stayed farther north than normal. The observations confirm earlier National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration reports that the United States was unusually <span class="hlt">warm</span> and dry this past <span class="hlt">winter</span>. (Click to read the NASA press release and to access higher-resolution images.) For the last two years, a new sensor aboard Terra has been collecting the most detailed global measurements ever made of our world's land surface temperatures and snow cover. The Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) is already giving scientists new insights into our changing planet. Average temperatures during December 2001 through February 2002 for the contiguous United States appear to have been unseasonably <span class="hlt">warm</span> from the Rockies eastward. In the top image the coldest temperatures appear black, while dark green, blue, red, yellow, and white indicate progressively warmer temperatures. MODIS observes both land surface temperature and emissivity, which indicates how efficiently a surface absorbs and emits thermal radiation. Compared to the <span class="hlt">winter</span> of 2000-01, temperatures throughout much of the U.S. were warmer in 2001-02. The bottom image depicts the differences on a scale from dark blue (colder this year than last) to red (warmer this year than last). A large region of <span class="hlt">warm</span> temperatures dominated the northern Great Plains, while the area around the Great Salt Lake was a cold spot. Images courtesy Robert Simmon, NASA GSFC, based upon data courtesy Zhengming Wan, MODIS Land Science Team member at the University of California, Santa Barbara's Institute for Computational Earth System Science</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=GL-2002-001455&hterms=dry+snow&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D30%26Ntt%3Ddry%2Bsnow','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=GL-2002-001455&hterms=dry+snow&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D30%26Ntt%3Ddry%2Bsnow"><span>Terra Data Confirm <span class="hlt">Warm</span>, Dry U.S. <span class="hlt">Winter</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p></p> <p>2002-01-01</p> <p>New maps of land surface temperature and snow cover produced by NASA's Terra satellite show this year's <span class="hlt">winter</span> was warmer than last year's, and the snow line stayed farther north than normal. The observations confirm earlier National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration reports that the United States was unusually <span class="hlt">warm</span> and dry this past <span class="hlt">winter</span>. (Click to read the NASA press release and to access higher-resolution images.) For the last two years, a new sensor aboard Terra has been collecting the most detailed global measurements ever made of our world's land surface temperatures and snow cover. The Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) is already giving scientists new insights into our changing planet. Average temperatures during December 2001 through February 2002 for the contiguous United States appear to have been unseasonably <span class="hlt">warm</span> from the Rockies eastward. In the top image the coldest temperatures appear black, while dark green, blue, red, yellow, and white indicate progressively warmer temperatures. MODIS observes both land surface temperature and emissivity, which indicates how efficiently a surface absorbs and emits thermal radiation. Compared to the <span class="hlt">winter</span> of 2000-01, temperatures throughout much of the U.S. were warmer in 2001-02. The bottom image depicts the differences on a scale from dark blue (colder this year than last) to red (warmer this year than last). A large region of <span class="hlt">warm</span> temperatures dominated the northern Great Plains, while the area around the Great Salt Lake was a cold spot. Images courtesy Robert Simmon, NASA GSFC, based upon data courtesy Zhengming Wan, MODIS Land Science Team member at the University of California, Santa Barbara's Institute for Computational Earth System Science</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016GeoRL..43.5345S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016GeoRL..43.5345S"><span>What caused the recent ``<span class="hlt">Warm</span> Arctic, Cold Continents'' trend pattern in <span class="hlt">winter</span> temperatures?</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Sun, Lantao; Perlwitz, Judith; Hoerling, Martin</p> <p>2016-05-01</p> <p>The emergence of rapid Arctic <span class="hlt">warming</span> in recent decades has coincided with unusually cold <span class="hlt">winters</span> over Northern Hemisphere continents. It has been speculated that this "<span class="hlt">Warm</span> Arctic, Cold Continents" trend pattern is due to sea ice loss. Here we use multiple models to examine whether such a pattern is indeed forced by sea ice loss specifically and by anthropogenic forcing in general. While we show much of Arctic amplification in surface <span class="hlt">warming</span> to result from sea ice loss, we find that neither sea ice loss nor anthropogenic forcing overall yield trends toward colder continental temperatures. An alternate explanation of the cooling is that it represents a strong articulation of internal atmospheric variability, evidence for which is derived from model data, and physical considerations. Sea ice loss impact on weather variability over the high-latitude continents is found, however, to be characterized by reduced daily temperature variability and fewer cold <span class="hlt">extremes</span>.</p> </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>1</a></li> <li class="active"><span>2</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_3");'>3</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_4");'>4</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_5");'>5</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div><!-- col-sm-12 --> </div><!-- row --> </div><!-- page_2 --> <div id="page_3" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>1</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_2");'>2</a></li> <li class="active"><span>3</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_4");'>4</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_5");'>5</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="41"> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017GeoRL..44.8893W','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017GeoRL..44.8893W"><span>How much have California <span class="hlt">winters</span> <span class="hlt">warmed</span> over the last century?</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Wang, K. J.; Williams, A. P.; Lettenmaier, D. P.</p> <p>2017-09-01</p> <p>Extraordinarily <span class="hlt">warm</span> 2013-2014 and 2014-2015 <span class="hlt">winter</span> temperatures in California accompanied by drought conditions contributed to low snow accumulations and stressed water resources, giving rise to the question: how much has California's climate <span class="hlt">warmed</span> over the last century? We examine long-term trends in maximum (<fi>T</fi>max) and minimum (<fi>T</fi>min) daily temperatures in <span class="hlt">winter</span> estimated from five gridded data sets. Resulting trends show some consistent features, such as higher trends in <fi>T</fi>min than <fi>T</fi>max; however, substantial differences exist in the trend magnitudes and spatial patterns due mostly to the nature of spatial interpolation employed in the different data sets. Averaged across California over 1920-2015, <fi>T</fi>max trends vary from -0.30 to 1.2°C/century, while <fi>T</fi>min trends range from 1.2 to 1.9°C/century. The differences in temperature strongly impact modeled changes in snow water equivalent over the last century (from -5.0 to -7.6 km3/century).</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014AGUFMPP23E..06M','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014AGUFMPP23E..06M"><span>North Siberian Permafrost reveals Holocene Arctic <span class="hlt">Winter</span> <span class="hlt">Warming</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Meyer, H.; Opel, T.; Laepple, T.; Alexander, D.; Hoffmann, K.; Werner, M.</p> <p>2014-12-01</p> <p>The Arctic climate has experienced a major <span class="hlt">warming</span> over the past decades, which is unprecedented in the last 2000 yrs. There are, however, still major uncertainties about the temperature evolution during the Holocene. Most proxy reconstructions suggest a cooling in mid-and late Holocene (e.g. Wanner, 2008), whereas climate model simulations show only weak changes or even a moderate <span class="hlt">warming</span> (e.g. Lohmann et al., 2013). In this study, we used ice wedges as promising permafrost climate archive studied by stable water isotope methods. Ice wedges may be identified by vertically oriented foliations, and they form by the repeated filling of <span class="hlt">winter</span> thermal contraction cracks by snow melt water in spring. Therefore, the isotopic composition of wedge ice may be attributed to the climate conditions of the cold season (i.e. <span class="hlt">winter</span> and spring). 42 samples of organic material enclosed in ice wedges have been directly dated by Radiocarbon methods. Here, we present the first terrestrial stable oxygen isotope record of Holocene <span class="hlt">winter</span> temperatures in up to centennial-scale resolution based on permafrost ice wedges (Lena River Delta; Siberian Arctic). The Lena ice-wedge record shows that the recent isotopic temperatures are the highest of the past 7000 years. Despite similarities to Arctic temperature reconstructions of the last two millennia (Kaufman et al., 2009), it suggests a <span class="hlt">winter</span> <span class="hlt">warming</span> throughout the mid and late Holocene, opposite to most existing other proxy records (Wanner, 2008). This apparent contradiction can be explained by the seasonality of the ice-wedge genesis in combination with orbital and greenhouse gas forcing and is consistent with climate model simulations. We conclude that the present model-data mismatch might be an artefact of the summer bias of the existing proxy records and thus, our record helps to reconcile the understanding of the northern hemisphere Holocene temperature evolution. This is particular true for the Russian Arctic significantly</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27176763','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27176763"><span>Mercury concentration in phytoplankton in response to <span class="hlt">warming</span> of an autumn - <span class="hlt">winter</span> season.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Bełdowska, Magdalena; Kobos, Justyna</p> <p>2016-08-01</p> <p>Among other climate changes in the southern Baltic, there is a tendency towards <span class="hlt">warming</span>, especially in autumn-<span class="hlt">winter</span>. As a result, the ice cover on the coastal zone often fails to occur. This is conducive to the thriving of phytoplankton, in which metals, including mercury, can be accumulated. The dry deposition of atmospheric Hg during heating seasons is more intense than in non-heating seasons, owing to the combustion of fossil fuels for heating purposes. This has resulted in studies into the role of phytoplankton in the introduction of Hg into the first link of trophic chain, as a function of autumn and <span class="hlt">winter</span> <span class="hlt">warming</span> in the coastal zone of the lagoon. The studies were conducted at two stations in the coastal zone of the southern Baltic, in the Puck Lagoon, between December 2011 and May 2013. The obtained results show that, in the estuary region, the lack of ice cover can lead to a 30% increase and during an "<span class="hlt">extremely</span> <span class="hlt">warm</span>" autumn and <span class="hlt">winter</span> an increase of up to three-fold in the mean annual Hg pool in phytoplankton (mass of Hg in phytoplankton per liter of seawater). The Hg content in phytoplankton was higher when Mesodinium rubrum was prevalent in the biomass, while the proportion of dinoflagellates was small. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFM.A33J0392T','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFM.A33J0392T"><span>Long Term Decline in Eastern US <span class="hlt">Winter</span> Temperature <span class="hlt">Extremes</span>.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Trenary, L. L.; DelSole, T. M.; Tippett, M. K.; Doty, B.</p> <p>2016-12-01</p> <p>States along the US eastern seaboard have experienced successively harsh <span class="hlt">winter</span> conditions in recent years. This has prompted speculation that climate change is leading to more <span class="hlt">extreme</span> <span class="hlt">winter</span> conditions. In this study we quantify changes in the observed <span class="hlt">winter</span> <span class="hlt">extremes</span> over the period 1950-2015, by examining year-to-year differences in intensity, frequency and likelihood of daily cold temperature <span class="hlt">extremes</span> in the north, mid, and south Atlantic states along the US east coast. Analyzing station data for these three regions, we find that while the north and mid-Atlantic regions experienced record-breaking cold temperatures in 2015, there is no long-term increase in the intensity of cold <span class="hlt">extremes</span> anywhere along the eastern seaboard. Likewise, despite the record number of cold days in these two regions during 2014 and 2015, there is no systematic increase in the frequency of cold <span class="hlt">extremes</span>. To determine whether the observed changes are natural or human-forced, we repeat our analysis using a suite of climate simulations, with and without external forcing. Generally, model simulations suggest that human-induced forcing does not significantly influence the range of daily <span class="hlt">winter</span> temperature. Combining this result with the fact that the observed <span class="hlt">winter</span> temperatures are becoming warmer and less variable, we conclude that the recent intensification of eastern US cold <span class="hlt">extremes</span> is only temporary.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFMGC41A1065J','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFMGC41A1065J"><span>Factors Contributing to <span class="hlt">Extremely</span> Wet <span class="hlt">Winters</span> in California</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Jong, B. T.; Ting, M.; Seager, R.</p> <p>2015-12-01</p> <p>As California continues to battle the severe drought conditions, it becomes increasingly important to understand the atmospheric and oceanic conditions that may possible break this ongoing drought. Is a strong El Niño, such as the 2015/16 event, enough to break the drought? We examine in this study the possible factors that lead to <span class="hlt">extremely</span> wet <span class="hlt">winters</span> (the wettest 15%) in both Northern and Southern CA. The relationships between CA <span class="hlt">winter</span> precipitation and sea surface temperature conditions in the Pacific, as well as atmospheric circulation are determined by using observational and reanalysis data from 1901 to 2010. One of the key features of the atmospheric circulation is the location of the low pressure anomaly, whether caused by El Niño or other factors. If the anomaly locates right off the US west coast, CA tends to be wet, and vice versa. Furthermore, the duration of the circulation anomaly seems to be crucial. During wet El Niño <span class="hlt">winters</span>, the peak of the circulation anomaly is in the late <span class="hlt">winter</span>, whereas, during non-wet El Niño <span class="hlt">winters</span>, the peak of the anomaly is in the early <span class="hlt">winter</span>. Thus, an El Niño that can last to late <span class="hlt">winter</span> is more likely to cause an <span class="hlt">extremely</span> wet <span class="hlt">winter</span> in the state. The intensity of El Niño is another critical factor. In the wettest tercile late <span class="hlt">winter</span>, a strong El Niño can bring about 200% of climatological precipitation to CA, while a weak El Niño can bring only less than 150% of climatology. In combination, only a strong El Niño that can last to late <span class="hlt">winter</span> may make <span class="hlt">extremely</span> wet <span class="hlt">winters</span> very likely in CA. To explore the other factors, composites of circulation anomaly during wet & non-El Niño <span class="hlt">winters</span> were also analyzed. The results show that a zonally propagating wave train, originating from western North Pacific, contributes to low pressure center and wet <span class="hlt">winter</span> conditions in the state. Thus, coastal low pressure anomaly is a consistent feature for an <span class="hlt">extremely</span> wet <span class="hlt">winters</span> in California, but the origin of forcing can</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014ERL.....9k4021H','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014ERL.....9k4021H"><span>Warmer and wetter <span class="hlt">winters</span>: characteristics and implications of an <span class="hlt">extreme</span> weather event in the High Arctic</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Hansen, Brage B.; Isaksen, Ketil; Benestad, Rasmus E.; Kohler, Jack; Pedersen, Åshild Ø.; Loe, Leif E.; Coulson, Stephen J.; Larsen, Jan Otto; Varpe, Øystein</p> <p>2014-11-01</p> <p>One predicted consequence of global <span class="hlt">warming</span> is an increased frequency of <span class="hlt">extreme</span> weather events, such as heat waves, droughts, or heavy rainfalls. In parts of the Arctic, <span class="hlt">extreme</span> <span class="hlt">warm</span> spells and heavy rain-on-snow (ROS) events in <span class="hlt">winter</span> are already more frequent. How these weather events impact snow-pack and permafrost characteristics is rarely documented empirically, and the implications for wildlife and society are hence far from understood. Here we characterize and document the effects of an <span class="hlt">extreme</span> <span class="hlt">warm</span> spell and ROS event that occurred in High Arctic Svalbard in January-February 2012, during the polar night. In this normally cold semi-desert environment, we recorded above-zero temperatures (up to 7 °C) across the entire archipelago and record-breaking precipitation, with up to 98 mm rainfall in one day (return period of >500 years prior to this event) and 272 mm over the two-week long <span class="hlt">warm</span> spell. These precipitation amounts are equivalent to 25 and 70% respectively of the mean annual total precipitation. The <span class="hlt">extreme</span> event caused significant increase in permafrost temperatures down to at least 5 m depth, induced slush avalanches with resultant damage to infrastructure, and left a significant ground-ice cover (˜5-20 cm thick basal ice). The ground-ice not only affected inhabitants by closing roads and airports as well as reducing mobility and thereby tourism income, but it also led to high starvation-induced mortality in all monitored populations of the wild reindeer by blocking access to the <span class="hlt">winter</span> food source. Based on empirical-statistical downscaling of global climate models run under the moderate RCP4.5 emission scenario, we predict strong future <span class="hlt">warming</span> with average mid-<span class="hlt">winter</span> temperatures even approaching 0 °C, suggesting increased frequency of ROS. This will have far-reaching implications for Arctic ecosystems and societies through the changes in snow-pack and permafrost properties.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014PhDT.......169W','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014PhDT.......169W"><span><span class="hlt">Winter</span> <span class="hlt">extreme</span> precipitation along the North American west coast</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Warner, Michael D.</p> <p></p> <p> primarily associated with thermodynamic changes related to future IWV increases due to <span class="hlt">warming</span>. The dynamically downscaled NCEP-NCAR reanalysis-driven WRF model, run with a 36-km resolution outer domain and a 12-km nest, contains more realistic terrain than most GCMs and highlights the spatial precipitation distribution over the Pacific Northwest. <span class="hlt">Winter</span> precipitation in the Pacific Northwest correlates well with offshore daily IVT (as high as ˜0.8) with spatial signatures indicative of frequent coastal mid-latitude cyclones impacting the coast. However, the most <span class="hlt">extreme</span> AR events did not correlate as highly as expected with daily precipitation (as high as ˜0.4), despite ARs accounting for 8% or more of the total <span class="hlt">winter</span> precipitation. When wind direction was taken into account, the correlations were much higher (˜0.7-0.8), indicating wind direction is an important factor when <span class="hlt">extreme</span> precipitation occurs along the coast.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014BGD....11.7797S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014BGD....11.7797S"><span>Recurrent <span class="hlt">winter</span> <span class="hlt">warming</span> pulses enhance nitrogen cycling and soil biotic activity in temperate heathland and grassland mesocosms</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Schuerings, J.; Jentsch, A.; Hammerl, V.; Lenz, K.; Henry, H. A. L.; Malyshev, A. V.; Kreyling, J.</p> <p>2014-06-01</p> <p><span class="hlt">Winter</span> air temperatures are projected to increase in the temperate zone, whereas snow cover is projected to decrease, leading to more <span class="hlt">extreme</span> soil temperature variability, and potentially to changes in nutrient cycling. Therefore, we applied six <span class="hlt">winter</span> <span class="hlt">warming</span> pulses by infra-red heating lamps and surface heating wires in a field experiment over one <span class="hlt">winter</span> in temperate heathland and grassland mesocosms. The experiment was replicated at two sites, a colder mountainous upland site with high snow accumulation and a warmer and dryer lowland site. <span class="hlt">Winter</span> <span class="hlt">warming</span> pulses enhanced soil biotic activity for both sites during <span class="hlt">winter</span>, as indicated by 35% higher nitrogen (N) availability in the soil solution, 40% higher belowground decomposition and a 25% increase in the activity of the enzyme cellobiohydrolase. The mobilization of N differed between sites, and the incorporation of 15N into leaves was reduced by 31% in response to <span class="hlt">winter</span> <span class="hlt">warming</span> pulses, but only at the cold site, with significant reductions occurring for three of four tested plant species at this site. Furthermore, there was a trend of increased N leaching in response to the recurrent <span class="hlt">winter</span> <span class="hlt">warming</span> pulses. Overall, projected <span class="hlt">winter</span> climate change in the temperate zone, with less snow and more variable soil temperatures, appears important for shifts in ecosystem functioning (i.e. nutrient cycling). While the effects of <span class="hlt">warming</span> pulses on plant N mobilization did not differ among sites, reduced plant 15N incorporation at the colder temperate site suggests that frost damage may reduce plant performance in a warmer world, with important implications for nitrogen cycling and nitrogen losses from ecosystems.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013IJBm...57..355D','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013IJBm...57..355D"><span>Impact of future <span class="hlt">warming</span> on <span class="hlt">winter</span> chilling in Australia</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Darbyshire, Rebecca; Webb, Leanne; Goodwin, Ian; Barlow, E. W. R.</p> <p>2013-05-01</p> <p>Increases in temperature as a result of anthropogenically generated greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are likely to impact key aspects of horticultural production. The potential effect of higher temperatures on fruit and nut trees' ability to break <span class="hlt">winter</span> dormancy, which requires exposure to <span class="hlt">winter</span> chilling temperatures, was considered. Three chill models (the 0-7.2°C, Modified Utah, and Dynamic models) were used to investigate changes in chill accumulation at 13 sites across Australia according to localised temperature change related to 1, 2 and 3°C increases in global average temperatures. This methodology avoids reliance on outcomes of future GHG emission pathways, which vary and are likely to change. Regional impacts and rates of decline in chilling differ among the chill models, with the 0-7.2°C model indicating the greatest reduction and the Dynamic model the slowest rate of decline. Elevated and high latitude eastern Australian sites were the least affected while the three more maritime, less elevated Western Australian locations were shown to bear the greatest impact from future <span class="hlt">warming</span>.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014EGUGA..16.9938A','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014EGUGA..16.9938A"><span><span class="hlt">Warming</span> Arctic, weakening polar vortex and <span class="hlt">winter</span> cooling</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Alexeev, Vladimir; Esau, Igor; Outten, Stephen</p> <p>2014-05-01</p> <p>Spatiotemporal patterns of air temperature trends (1958-2012) are evaluated using reanalysis datasets and radiosonde data. Our analysis demonstrates large discrepancies between the reanalysis datasets, possibly due to differences in the data assimilation procedures as well as sparseness and inhomogeneity of high-latitude observations. A change of sign in the <span class="hlt">winter</span> temperature trend from negative to positive in the mid- to late 1980s is documented in the upper troposphere/ lower stratosphere with a maximum over the Canadian Arctic. This change from cooling to <span class="hlt">warming</span> tendency is associated with weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex and shift of its center toward the Siberian coast and possibly can be explained by the changes in the dynamics of the Arctic Oscillation. This pattern is likely linked to the observed multi-decadal variability in the Arctic with implications for recently observed <span class="hlt">winter</span> cooling in Siberia and continental United States. Possible dynamical mechanisms linking the weakening of the polar vortex and weather in mid-latitudes are demonstrated in a number of model frameworks.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22674019','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22674019"><span>Impact of future <span class="hlt">warming</span> on <span class="hlt">winter</span> chilling in Australia.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Darbyshire, Rebecca; Webb, Leanne; Goodwin, Ian; Barlow, E W R</p> <p>2013-05-01</p> <p>Increases in temperature as a result of anthropogenically generated greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are likely to impact key aspects of horticultural production. The potential effect of higher temperatures on fruit and nut trees' ability to break <span class="hlt">winter</span> dormancy, which requires exposure to <span class="hlt">winter</span> chilling temperatures, was considered. Three chill models (the 0-7.2°C, Modified Utah, and Dynamic models) were used to investigate changes in chill accumulation at 13 sites across Australia according to localised temperature change related to 1, 2 and 3°C increases in global average temperatures. This methodology avoids reliance on outcomes of future GHG emission pathways, which vary and are likely to change. Regional impacts and rates of decline in chilling differ among the chill models, with the 0-7.2°C model indicating the greatest reduction and the Dynamic model the slowest rate of decline. Elevated and high latitude eastern Australian sites were the least affected while the three more maritime, less elevated Western Australian locations were shown to bear the greatest impact from future <span class="hlt">warming</span>.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017EGUGA..1911423C','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017EGUGA..1911423C"><span>Impact of Stratospheric Sudden <span class="hlt">Warming</span> on East Asian <span class="hlt">Winter</span> Monsoons</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Chen, Quanliang</p> <p>2017-04-01</p> <p>Quanliang Chen, Luyang Xu, and Hongke Cai College of Atmospheric Science, Chengdu University of Information Technology and Plateau Atmospheric and Environment Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Chengdu 610225, China Fifty-two stratospheric sudden <span class="hlt">warming</span> (SSW) events that occurred from 1957 to 2002 were analysed based on the 40-year European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis dataset. Those that could descent to the troposphere were composited to investigate their impacts on the East Asian <span class="hlt">winter</span> monsoon (EAWM). It reveals that when the SSW occurs, the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and the North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) are both in the negative phase and that the tropospheric circulations quite wave-like. The Siberian high and the Aleutian low are both strengthened, leading to an increased gradient between the Asian continent and the North Pacific. Hence, strong EAWM is observed with widespread cooling over in land and coastal East Asia. After the peak of the SSW, in contrast, the tropospheric circulation is quite zonally symmetric with negative phases of AO and NPO. The mid-tropospheric East Asian trough deepens and shifts eastward. This configuration facilitates <span class="hlt">warming</span> over the East AsianinlandandcoolingoverthecoastalEastAsiacenteredoverJapan.Theactivitiesofplanetarywavesduringthelifecycleofthe SSW were analysed. The anomalous propagation and the attendant altered amplitude of the planetary waves can well explain the observed circulation and the EAWM.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUOSPC23A..05L','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUOSPC23A..05L"><span>Eurasian <span class="hlt">winter</span> cooling in the <span class="hlt">warming</span> hiatus of 1998-2012</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Li, C.; Stevens, B. B.; Marotzke, J.</p> <p>2016-02-01</p> <p>In this study, we investigated the relative magnitudes of the contributions of surface temperature trends from different latitude bands to the recent <span class="hlt">warming</span> hiatus. We confirm from five different global datasets that the global-mean surface temperature trend in the period 1998—2012 is strongly influenced by a pronounced Eurasian <span class="hlt">winter</span> cooling trend. This cooling trend was not reproduced in an influential model study attributing most of the hiatus to cooling in the tropical Pacific (Kosaka and Xie, 2013) and hence might have different causes. Arctic sea ice loss over interannual time scales has previously been shown to influence Eurasian <span class="hlt">winter</span> temperatures (Kim et al., 2014; Mori et al., 2014), but whether such an influence exists for the concrete hiatus period has remained unclear. To understand the drivers of this <span class="hlt">winter</span>-cooling trend, we perform three twenty-member ensembles of simulations with different prescribed sea surface temperature and sea ice in the atmospheric model ECHAM6. Our experimental results suggest that the Arctic sea-ice loss does not drive systematic changes in the northern-hemisphere large-scale circulation in the past decades. The observed Eurasian <span class="hlt">winter</span> cooling trend over 1998-2012 arises essentially from atmospheric internal variability and constitutes an <span class="hlt">extreme</span> climate event. However, the observed reduction in Arctic sea ice enhances the variability of Eurasian <span class="hlt">winter</span> climate and thus increases the probability of an <span class="hlt">extreme</span> Eurasian <span class="hlt">winter</span> cooling trend. Reference: Kosaka, Y., and S.-P. Xie, 2013: Recent global-<span class="hlt">warming</span> hiatus tied to equatorial Pacific surface cooling. Nature, 501, 403—407. Kim, B. M., S. W. Son, S. K. Min, J. H. Jeong, S. J. Kim, X. D. Zhang, T. Shim and J. H. Yoon, 2014: Weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex by Arctic sea-ice loss, Nature Communications, doi:10.1038/ncomms5646. Mori M., M. Watanabe, H. Shiogama, J. Inoue, and M. Kimoto, 2014: Robust Arctic sea-ice inuence on the frequent Eurasian cold</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70189556','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70189556"><span>Mangrove species' responses to <span class="hlt">winter</span> air temperature <span class="hlt">extremes</span> in China</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a></p> <p>Chen, Luzhen; Wang, Wenqing; Li, Qingshun Q.; Zhang, Yihui; Yang, Shengchang; Osland, Michael J.; Huang, Jinliang; Peng, Congjiao</p> <p>2017-01-01</p> <p>The global distribution and diversity of mangrove forests is greatly influenced by the frequency and intensity of <span class="hlt">winter</span> air temperature <span class="hlt">extremes</span>. However, our understanding of how different mangrove species respond to <span class="hlt">winter</span> temperature <span class="hlt">extremes</span> has been lacking because <span class="hlt">extreme</span> freezing and chilling events are, by definition, relatively uncommon and also difficult to replicate experimentally. In this study, we investigated species-specific variation in mangrove responses to <span class="hlt">winter</span> temperature <span class="hlt">extremes</span> in China. In 10 sites that span a latitudinal gradient, we quantified species-specific damage and recovery following a chilling event, for mangrove species within and outside of their natural range (i.e., native and non-native species, respectively). To characterize plant stress, we measured tree defoliation and chlorophyll fluorescence approximately one month following the chilling event. To quantify recovery, we measured chlorophyll fluorescence approximately nine months after the chilling event. Our results show high variation in the geographic- and species-specific responses of mangroves to <span class="hlt">winter</span> temperature <span class="hlt">extremes</span>. While many species were sensitive to the chilling temperatures (e.g., Bruguiera sexangula and species in the Sonneratia and Rhizophora genera), the temperatures during this event were not cold enough to affect certain species (e.g., Kandelia obovata, Aegiceras corniculatum, Avicennia marina, and Bruguiera gymnorrhiza). As expected, non-native species were less tolerant of <span class="hlt">winter</span> temperature <span class="hlt">extremes</span> than native species. Interestingly, tidal inundation modulated the effects of chilling. In comparison with other temperature-controlled mangrove range limits across the world, the mangrove range limit in China is unique due to the combination of the following three factors: (1) Mangrove species diversity is comparatively high; (2) <span class="hlt">winter</span> air temperature <span class="hlt">extremes</span>, rather than means, are particularly intense and play an important ecological</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017EGUGA..1916692V','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017EGUGA..1916692V"><span>Exceptional Arctic warmth of early <span class="hlt">winter</span> 2016 and attribution to global <span class="hlt">warming</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan; Macias-Fauria, Marc; King, Andrew; Uhe, Peter; Philip, Sjoukje; Kew, Sarah; Karoly, David; Otto, Friederike; Allen, Myles; Cullen, Heidi</p> <p>2017-04-01</p> <p> have risen on the North Pole, modulated by decadal North Atlantic variability. For all phases of this variability, a <span class="hlt">warm</span> event like the one of this <span class="hlt">winter</span> would have been <span class="hlt">extremely</span> unlikely in the climate of a century ago. Both sets of models also give very comparable results and show that the bulk of the arctic temperature increase is due to anthropogenic emissions. This also holds for the <span class="hlt">warm</span> <span class="hlt">extremes</span> caused by the type of circulation present in the early <span class="hlt">winter</span> of 2016.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013EGUGA..15.5921M','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013EGUGA..15.5921M"><span>Snow line analysis in the Romanian Carpathians under the influence of <span class="hlt">winter</span> <span class="hlt">warming</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Micu, Dana; Cosmin Sandric, Ionut</p> <p>2013-04-01</p> <p>The Romanian Carpathians are subject to <span class="hlt">winter</span> <span class="hlt">warming</span> as statistically proved by station measurements over a 47 year period (1961-2007). Herein, the snow season is considered to last from the 1st of November to the 30th of April, when snowpack usually reaches the highest stability and thickness. This paper investigates the signals of <span class="hlt">winter</span> temperature and precipitation change at 17 mountain station located above 1,000 m, as being considered the main triggering factors of large fluctuations in snow amount and duration in these mountains. Fewer snowfalls were recorded all over the Romanian Carpathians after the mid 80s and over large mountain areas (including the alpine ones) the frequency of positive temperature <span class="hlt">extremes</span> became higher (e.g. <span class="hlt">winter</span> heat waves). Late Fall snowfalls and snowpack onsets (mainly in mid elevation areas, located below 1,700 m) and particularly the shifts towards early Spring snowmelts (at all the sites) were statistically proved to explain the decline of snow cover duration across the Carpathians. However, the sensitivity of snow cover duration to recent <span class="hlt">winter</span> <span class="hlt">warming</span> is still blurred in the high elevation areas (above 2,000 m). The trends in <span class="hlt">winter</span> climate variability observed in the Romanian Carpathians beyond 1,000 m altitude are fairly comparable to those estimated in other European mountain ranges from observational data (e.g. the Swiss Alps, the French Alps and the Tatra Mts.). In relation to the climate change signals derived from observational data provided by low density mountain meteorological network (of about 3.3 stations per km2 in the areas above 1,000 m), the paper analysis the spatial probability and evolution trends of snow line in each <span class="hlt">winter</span> season across the Romanian Carpathians, based on Landsat satellite data (MSS, TM and ETM+), with sufficiently high spatial (30 to 60 m) and temporal resolutions (850 images), over the 1973-2011 period. The Landsat coverage was considered suitable enough to enable an objective</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27152990','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27152990"><span><span class="hlt">Extreme</span> <span class="hlt">warm</span> temperatures alter forest phenology and productivity in Europe.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Crabbe, Richard A; Dash, Jadu; Rodriguez-Galiano, Victor F; Janous, Dalibor; Pavelka, Marian; Marek, Michal V</p> <p>2016-09-01</p> <p>Recent climate <span class="hlt">warming</span> has shifted the timing of spring and autumn vegetation phenological events in the temperate and boreal forest ecosystems of Europe. In many areas spring phenological events start earlier and autumn events switch between earlier and later onset. Consequently, the length of growing season in mid and high latitudes of European forest is extended. However, the lagged effects (i.e. the impact of a <span class="hlt">warm</span> spring or autumn on the subsequent phenological events) on vegetation phenology and productivity are less explored. In this study, we have (1) characterised <span class="hlt">extreme</span> <span class="hlt">warm</span> spring and <span class="hlt">extreme</span> <span class="hlt">warm</span> autumn events in Europe during 2003-2011, and (2) investigated if direct impact on forest phenology and productivity due to a specific <span class="hlt">warm</span> event translated to a lagged effect in subsequent phenological events. We found that warmer events in spring occurred extensively in high latitude Europe producing a significant earlier onset of greening (OG) in broadleaf deciduous forest (BLDF) and mixed forest (MF). However, this earlier OG did not show any significant lagged effects on autumnal senescence. Needleleaf evergreen forest (NLEF), BLDF and MF showed a significantly delayed end of senescence (EOS) as a result of <span class="hlt">extreme</span> <span class="hlt">warm</span> autumn events; and in the following year's spring phenological events, OG started significantly earlier. <span class="hlt">Extreme</span> <span class="hlt">warm</span> spring events directly led to significant (p=0.0189) increases in the productivity of BLDF. In order to have a complete understanding of ecosystems response to <span class="hlt">warm</span> temperature during key phenological events, particularly autumn events, the lagged effect on the next growing season should be considered. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFMGC11G1098K','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFMGC11G1098K"><span>The Rapid Arctic <span class="hlt">Warming</span> and Its Impact on East Asian <span class="hlt">Winter</span> Weather in Recent Decade</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Kim, S. J.; Kim, B. M.; Kim, J. H.</p> <p>2015-12-01</p> <p>The Arctic is <span class="hlt">warming</span> much more rapidly than the lower latitudes. In contrast to the rapid Arctic <span class="hlt">warming</span>, in <span class="hlt">winters</span> of the recent decade, the cold-air outbreaks over East Asia occur more frequently and stronger than in 1990s. By accompanying the snow over East Asia, the strong cold surges have led to a severe socio-economic impact. Such severe cold surges in recent decade over east Asia is consistent with the more dominant negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation (AO), that may be attributed by the Arctic amplification. In both observation-based reanalysis and numerical model experiments, the Arctic sea ice melting leads to the weakening of the AO polarity by reducing the meridional temperature gradient through a heat flux feedback. The Arctic <span class="hlt">warming</span> and associated sea ice melting over the Kara-Barents area in late fall and early <span class="hlt">winter</span> first release a lot of heat to the atmosphere from the ocean by a strong contrast in temperature and moisture and higher height anomaly is developed over the Kara/Barents and the Ural mountains The anomalous anticyclonic anomaly over the Arctic strengthen the Siberian High and at the same time the east Asian trough is developed over the western coast of the North Pacific. Through the passage between the margin of the Siberian High and east Asian tough, an <span class="hlt">extremely</span> cold air is transported from east Siberia to east Asia for sometimes more than a week. Such a severe sold air brings about the moisture from nearby ocean, largely influencing the daily lives and economy in north East China, Korea, and Japan. The recent Arctic and associated sea ice melting is not only contributed to the local climate and weather, but also a severe weather in mid-latitudes through a modulation in polar vortex.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016EGUGA..18.3774K','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016EGUGA..18.3774K"><span>The Rapid Arctic <span class="hlt">Warming</span> in Recent Decade and Its Impact on Eurasia <span class="hlt">Winter</span> Weather</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Kim, Seong-Joong; Kim, Baek-Min; Kim, Joo-Hong; Jun, Sang-Yoon</p> <p>2016-04-01</p> <p>The Arctic is <span class="hlt">warming</span> much more rapidly than the lower latitudes. In contrast to the rapid Arctic <span class="hlt">warming</span>, in <span class="hlt">winters</span> of the recent decade, the cold-air outbreaks over East Asia occur more frequently and stronger than in 1990s. By accompanying the snow over East Asia, the strong cold surges have led to a severe socio-economic impact. Such severe cold surges in recent decade over east Asia is consistent with the more dominant negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation (AO), that may be attributed by the Arctic amplification. In both observation-based reanalysis and numerical model experiments, the Arctic sea ice melting leads to the weakening of the AO polarity by reducing the meridional temperature gradient through a heat flux feedback. The Arctic <span class="hlt">warming</span> and associated sea ice melting over the Kara-Barents area in late fall and early <span class="hlt">winter</span> first release a lot of heat to the atmosphere from the ocean by a strong contrast in temperature and moisture and higher height anomaly is developed over the Kara/Barents and the Ural mountains The anomalous anticyclonic anomaly over the Arctic strengthen the Siberian High and at the same time the east Asian trough is developed over the western coast of the North Pacific. Through the passage between the margin of the Siberian High and east Asian tough, an <span class="hlt">extremely</span> cold air is transported from east Siberia to east Asia for sometimes more than a week. Such a severe sold air brings about the moisture from nearby ocean, largely influencing the daily lives and economy in Eurasia. The recent Arctic and associated sea ice melting is not only contributed to the local climate and weather, but also a severe weather in mid-latitudes through a modulation in polar vortex.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017JGRC..122..775S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017JGRC..122..775S"><span>Improved forecasts of <span class="hlt">winter</span> weather <span class="hlt">extremes</span> over midlatitudes with extra Arctic observations</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Sato, Kazutoshi; Inoue, Jun; Yamazaki, Akira; Kim, Joo-Hong; Maturilli, Marion; Dethloff, Klaus; Hudson, Stephen R.; Granskog, Mats A.</p> <p>2017-02-01</p> <p>Recent cold <span class="hlt">winter</span> <span class="hlt">extremes</span> over Eurasia and North America have been considered to be a consequence of a <span class="hlt">warming</span> Arctic. More accurate weather forecasts are required to reduce human and socioeconomic damages associated with severe <span class="hlt">winters</span>. However, the sparse observing network over the Arctic brings errors in initializing a weather prediction model, which might impact accuracy of prediction results at midlatitudes. Here we show that additional Arctic radiosonde observations from the Norwegian young sea ICE expedition (N-ICE2015) drifting ice camps and existing land stations during <span class="hlt">winter</span> improved forecast skill and reduced uncertainties of weather <span class="hlt">extremes</span> at midlatitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. For two <span class="hlt">winter</span> storms over East Asia and North America in February 2015, ensemble forecast experiments were performed with initial conditions taken from an ensemble atmospheric reanalysis in which the observation data were assimilated. The observations reduced errors in initial conditions in the upper troposphere over the Arctic region, yielding more precise prediction of the locations and strengths of upper troughs and surface synoptic disturbances. Errors and uncertainties of predicted upper troughs at midlatitudes would be brought with upper level high potential vorticity (PV) intruding southward from the observed Arctic region. This is because the PV contained a "signal" of the additional Arctic observations as it moved along an isentropic surface. This suggests that a coordinated sustainable Arctic observing network would be effective not only for regional weather services but also for reducing weather risks in locations distant from the Arctic.</p> </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>1</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_2");'>2</a></li> <li class="active"><span>3</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_4");'>4</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_5");'>5</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div><!-- col-sm-12 --> </div><!-- row --> </div><!-- page_3 --> <div id="page_4" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_2");'>2</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_3");'>3</a></li> <li class="active"><span>4</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_5");'>5</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_6");'>6</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="61"> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70036711','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70036711"><span>Change in abundance of pacific brant <span class="hlt">wintering</span> in alaska: evidence of a climate <span class="hlt">warming</span> effect?</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a></p> <p>Ward, David H.; Dau, Christian P.; Tibbitts, T. Lee; Sedinger, James S.; Anderson, Betty A.; Hines, James E.</p> <p>2009-01-01</p> <p><span class="hlt">Winter</span> distribution of Pacific Flyway brant (Branta bernicla nigricans) has shifted northward from lowtemperate areas to sub-Arctic areas over the last 42 years. We assessed the <span class="hlt">winter</span> abundance and distribution of brant in Alaska to evaluate whether climate <span class="hlt">warming</span> may be contributing to positive trends in the most northern of the <span class="hlt">wintering</span> populations. Mean surface air temperatures during <span class="hlt">winter</span> at the end of the Alaska Peninsula increased about 1??C between 1963 and 2004, resulting in a 23% reduction in freezing degree days and a 34% decline in the number of days when ice cover prevents birds from accessing food resources. Trends in the <span class="hlt">wintering</span> population fluctuated with states of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, increasing during positive (<span class="hlt">warm</span>) phases and decreasing during negative (cold) phases, and this correlation provides support for the hypothesis that growth in the <span class="hlt">wintering</span> population of brant in Alaska is linked to climate <span class="hlt">warming</span>. The size of the <span class="hlt">wintering</span> population was negatively correlated with the number of days of strong northwesterly winds in November, which suggests that the occurrence of tailwinds favorable for migration before the onset of <span class="hlt">winter</span> was a key factor in whether brant migrated from Alaska or remained there during <span class="hlt">winter</span>. <span class="hlt">Winter</span> distribution of brant on the Alaska Peninsula was highly variable and influenced by ice cover, particularly at the heavily used Izembek Lagoon. Observations of previously marked brant indicated that the Alaska <span class="hlt">wintering</span> population was composed primarily of birds originating from Arctic breeding colonies that appear to be growing. Numbers of brant in Alaska during <span class="hlt">winter</span> will likely increase as temperatures rise and ice cover decreases at high latitudes in response to climate <span class="hlt">warming</span>. ?? The Arctic Institute of North America.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20040172039','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20040172039"><span>The Remarkable 2003-2004 <span class="hlt">Winter</span> and Other Recent <span class="hlt">Warm</span> <span class="hlt">Winters</span> in the Arctic Stratosphere Since the Late 1990s</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Manney, Gloria L.; Krueger, Kirstin; Sabutis, Joseph L.; Sena, Sara Amina; Pawson, Steven</p> <p>2004-01-01</p> <p>The 2003-2004 Arctic <span class="hlt">winter</span> was remarkable in the 40-year record of meteorological analyses. A major <span class="hlt">warming</span> beginning in early January 2004 led to nearly two months of vortex disruption with high-latitude easterlies in the middle to lower stratosphere. The upper stratospheric vortex broke up in late December, but began to recover by early January, and in February and March was the strongest since regular observations began in 1979. The lower stratospheric vortex broke up in late January. Comparison with two previous years, 1984-1985 and 1986-1987, with prolonged mid-<span class="hlt">winter</span> <span class="hlt">warming</span> periods shows unique characteristics of the 2003-2004 <span class="hlt">warming</span> period: The length of the vortex disruption, the strong and rapid recovery in the upper stratosphere, and the slow progression of the <span class="hlt">warming</span> from upper to lower stratosphere. January 2004 zonal mean winds in the middle and lower stratosphere were over two standard deviations below average. Examination of past variability shows that the recent frequency of major stratospheric <span class="hlt">warmings</span> (seven in the past six years) is unprecedented. Lower stratospheric temperatures were unusually high during six of the past seven years, with five having much lower than usual potential for PSC formation and ozone loss (nearly none in 1998-1999, 2001-2002 and 2003-2004, and very little in 1997-1998 and 2000-2001). Middle and upper stratospheric temperatures, however, were unusually low during and after February. The pattern of five of the last seven years with very low PSC potential would be expected to occur randomly once every approximately 850 years. This cluster of <span class="hlt">warm</span> <span class="hlt">winters</span>, immediately following a period of unusually cold <span class="hlt">winters</span>, may have important implications for possible changes in interannual variability and for determination and attribution of trends in stratospheric temperatures and ozone.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015NatCo...6E8657Y','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015NatCo...6E8657Y"><span>Increasing water cycle <span class="hlt">extremes</span> in California and in relation to ENSO cycle under global <span class="hlt">warming</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Yoon, Jin-Ho; Wang, S.-Y. Simon; Gillies, Robert R.; Kravitz, Ben; Hipps, Lawrence; Rasch, Philip J.</p> <p>2015-10-01</p> <p>Since the <span class="hlt">winter</span> of 2013-2014, California has experienced its most severe drought in recorded history, causing statewide water stress, severe economic loss and an extraordinary increase in wildfires. Identifying the effects of global <span class="hlt">warming</span> on regional water cycle <span class="hlt">extremes</span>, such as the ongoing drought in California, remains a challenge. Here we analyse large-ensemble and multi-model simulations that project the future of water cycle <span class="hlt">extremes</span> in California as well as to understand those associations that pertain to changing climate oscillations under global <span class="hlt">warming</span>. Both intense drought and excessive flooding are projected to increase by at least 50% towards the end of the twenty-first century; this projected increase in water cycle <span class="hlt">extremes</span> is associated with a strengthened relation to El Niño and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO)--in particular, <span class="hlt">extreme</span> El Niño and La Niña events that modulate California's climate not only through its <span class="hlt">warm</span> and cold phases but also its precursor patterns.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26487088','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26487088"><span>Increasing water cycle <span class="hlt">extremes</span> in California and in relation to ENSO cycle under global <span class="hlt">warming</span>.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Yoon, Jin-Ho; Wang, S-Y Simon; Gillies, Robert R; Kravitz, Ben; Hipps, Lawrence; Rasch, Philip J</p> <p>2015-10-21</p> <p>Since the <span class="hlt">winter</span> of 2013-2014, California has experienced its most severe drought in recorded history, causing statewide water stress, severe economic loss and an extraordinary increase in wildfires. Identifying the effects of global <span class="hlt">warming</span> on regional water cycle <span class="hlt">extremes</span>, such as the ongoing drought in California, remains a challenge. Here we analyse large-ensemble and multi-model simulations that project the future of water cycle <span class="hlt">extremes</span> in California as well as to understand those associations that pertain to changing climate oscillations under global <span class="hlt">warming</span>. Both intense drought and excessive flooding are projected to increase by at least 50% towards the end of the twenty-first century; this projected increase in water cycle <span class="hlt">extremes</span> is associated with a strengthened relation to El Niño and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO)--in particular, <span class="hlt">extreme</span> El Niño and La Niña events that modulate California's climate not only through its <span class="hlt">warm</span> and cold phases but also its precursor patterns.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4639898','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4639898"><span>Increasing water cycle <span class="hlt">extremes</span> in California and in relation to ENSO cycle under global <span class="hlt">warming</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Yoon, Jin-Ho; Wang, S-Y Simon; Gillies, Robert R.; Kravitz, Ben; Hipps, Lawrence; Rasch, Philip J.</p> <p>2015-01-01</p> <p>Since the <span class="hlt">winter</span> of 2013–2014, California has experienced its most severe drought in recorded history, causing statewide water stress, severe economic loss and an extraordinary increase in wildfires. Identifying the effects of global <span class="hlt">warming</span> on regional water cycle <span class="hlt">extremes</span>, such as the ongoing drought in California, remains a challenge. Here we analyse large-ensemble and multi-model simulations that project the future of water cycle <span class="hlt">extremes</span> in California as well as to understand those associations that pertain to changing climate oscillations under global <span class="hlt">warming</span>. Both intense drought and excessive flooding are projected to increase by at least 50% towards the end of the twenty-first century; this projected increase in water cycle <span class="hlt">extremes</span> is associated with a strengthened relation to El Niño and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO)—in particular, <span class="hlt">extreme</span> El Niño and La Niña events that modulate California's climate not only through its <span class="hlt">warm</span> and cold phases but also its precursor patterns. PMID:26487088</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/scitech/biblio/1027822','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/scitech/biblio/1027822"><span>Persisting cold <span class="hlt">extremes</span> under 21st-century <span class="hlt">warming</span> scenarios</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech">SciTech Connect</a></p> <p>Kodra, Evan A; Steinhaeuser, Karsten J K; Ganguly, Auroop R</p> <p>2011-01-01</p> <p>Analyses of climate model simulations and observations reveal that <span class="hlt">extreme</span> cold events are likely to persist across each land-continent even under 21st-century <span class="hlt">warming</span> scenarios. The grid-based intensity, duration and frequency of cold <span class="hlt">extreme</span> events are calculated annually through three indices: the coldest annual consecutive three-day average of daily maximum temperature, the annual maximum of consecutive frost days, and the total number of frost days. Nine global climate models forced with a moderate greenhouse-gas emissions scenario compares the indices over 2091 2100 versus 1991 2000. The credibility of model-simulated cold <span class="hlt">extremes</span> is evaluated through both bias scores relative to reanalysis data in the past and multi-model agreement in the future. The number of times the value of each annual index in 2091 2100 exceeds the decadal average of the corresponding index in 1991 2000 is counted. The results indicate that intensity and duration of grid-based cold <span class="hlt">extremes</span>, when viewed as a global total, will often be as severe as current typical conditions in many regions, but the corresponding frequency does not show this persistence. While the models agree on the projected persistence of cold <span class="hlt">extremes</span> in terms of global counts, regionally, inter-model variability and disparity in model performance tends to dominate. Our findings suggest that, despite a general <span class="hlt">warming</span> trend, regional preparedness for <span class="hlt">extreme</span> cold events cannot be compromised even towards the end of the century.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017JGRD..122.7971Z','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017JGRD..122.7971Z"><span>Northern Hemisphere <span class="hlt">winter</span> <span class="hlt">warming</span> and summer monsoon reduction after volcanic eruptions over the last millennium</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Zambri, Brian; LeGrande, Allegra N.; Robock, Alan; Slawinska, Joanna</p> <p>2017-08-01</p> <p>Observations show that all recent large tropical volcanic eruptions (1850 to Present) were followed by surface <span class="hlt">winter</span> <span class="hlt">warming</span> in the first Northern Hemisphere (NH) <span class="hlt">winter</span> after the eruption. Recent studies show that climate models produce a surface <span class="hlt">winter</span> <span class="hlt">warming</span> response in the first <span class="hlt">winter</span> after the largest eruptions but require a large ensemble of simulations to see significant changes. It is also generally required that the eruption be very large, and only two such eruptions occurred in the historical period: Krakatau in 1883 and Pinatubo in 1991. Here we examine surface <span class="hlt">winter</span> <span class="hlt">warming</span> patterns after the 10 largest volcanic eruptions between 850 and 1850 in the Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project 3 last millennium simulations and in the Community Earth System Model Last Millennium Ensemble. These eruptions were all larger than those since 1850. Though the results depend on both the individual models and the forcing data set used, we have found that models produce a surface <span class="hlt">winter</span> <span class="hlt">warming</span> signal in the first <span class="hlt">winter</span> after large volcanic eruptions, with higher temperatures over NH continents and a stronger polar vortex in the lower stratosphere. We also examined NH summer precipitation responses in the first year after the eruptions and find clear reductions of summer Asian and African monsoon rainfall.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/14703907','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/14703907"><span>Shifts in <span class="hlt">winter</span> distribution in birds: effects of global <span class="hlt">warming</span> and local habitat change.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Valiela, Ivan; Bowen, Jennifer L</p> <p>2003-11-01</p> <p>As global <span class="hlt">warming</span> intensified toward the end of the 20th century, there was a northward shift in <span class="hlt">winter</span> ranges of bird species in Cape Cod, Massachusetts, USA. These poleward shifts were correlated to local increases in minimum <span class="hlt">winter</span> temperatures and global temperature anomalies. This evidence, plus other recent results, suggests that during the last two decades global <span class="hlt">warming</span> has led to massive and widespread biogeographic shifts with potentially major ecological and human consequences. Local habitat changes associated with urban sprawl affected mainly forest birds with more northern <span class="hlt">winter</span> distributions. In Cape Cod, the effects of <span class="hlt">warming</span> on bird distributions are more substantial at the start of the 21st century, than those of habitat alteration, but as urban sprawl continues its importance may rival that of global <span class="hlt">warming</span>.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19820003824','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19820003824"><span>Meridional heat transport at the onset of <span class="hlt">winter</span> stratospheric <span class="hlt">warming</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Conte, M.</p> <p>1981-01-01</p> <p>A continuous vertical flow of energy toward high altitude was verified. This process produced a dynamic instability of the stratospheric polar vortex. A meridional heat transport ws primed toward the north, which generated a <span class="hlt">warming</span> trend.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23379143','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23379143"><span>[Effects of simulated <span class="hlt">warming</span> on soil respiration in a cropland under <span class="hlt">winter</span> wheat-soybean rotation].</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Liu, Yan; Chen, Shu-Tao; Hu, Zheng-Hua; Ren, Jing-Quan; Shen, Xiao-Shuai</p> <p>2012-12-01</p> <p>This study was aimed to investigate the effects of simulated <span class="hlt">warming</span> on soil respiration in a cropland under <span class="hlt">winter</span> wheat-soybean rotation. Randomized experiments were carried out in the cropland. 6 Plots were arranged and there were 2 treatments, simulated <span class="hlt">warming</span> and control. A portable soil CO2 fluxes system (LI-8100) was used to measure soil respiration rates. Soil CO2 production rates were determined by using a Barometric Process Separation (BaPS) method. Soil temperature and soil moisture were simultaneously determined when measuring soil respiration rates. Results indicated that soil respiration rates in different treatments showed similar seasonal variability, in accordance with the variability in soil temperature. Seasonal mean soil respiration rates for simulated <span class="hlt">warming</span> and control treatments were 3.54 and 2.49 micromol x (m2 x s)(-1), respectively, during the <span class="hlt">winter</span> wheat growth season, while they were 4.80 and 4.14 micromol x (m2 x s)(-1), respectively, during the soybean growth season. Simulated <span class="hlt">warming</span> significantly (P < 0.05) enhanced soil respiration during both the <span class="hlt">winter</span> wheat and soybean growth seasons. The impact of simulated <span class="hlt">warming</span> on soil respiration was particularly obvious during the later growth stages of <span class="hlt">winter</span> wheat (from heading to maturity stages) and soybean (from flowing to maturity stages). Further investigations suggested that, for both the <span class="hlt">winter</span> wheat and soybean growth seasons, the relationship between soil respiration and soil temperature could be well explained (P < 0.01) by exponential functions. The temperature sensitivity (Q10) of soil respiration in the simulated <span class="hlt">warming</span> treatments was significantly higher than that in the control treatments. The Q10 values for the simulated <span class="hlt">warming</span> and control treatments were 1.83 and 1.26, respectively, during the <span class="hlt">winter</span> wheat growth season, while they were 2.85 and 1.70, respectively, during the soybean growth season. This study showed that simulated <span class="hlt">warming</span> significantly increased</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015ClDy...45.2557Z','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015ClDy...45.2557Z"><span>Variability of <span class="hlt">winter</span> <span class="hlt">extreme</span> precipitation in Southeast China: contributions of SST anomalies</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Zhang, Ling; Sielmann, Frank; Fraedrich, Klaus; Zhu, Xiuhua; Zhi, Xiefei</p> <p>2015-11-01</p> <p>Tropical SST anomalies are among the largest drivers of circulation regime changes on interannual time scales due to its characteristic heat capacity decay time scales. The circulation anomalies associated with <span class="hlt">extreme</span> precipitation and the corresponding atmospheric response to SST anomalies are derived from ECMWF ERA-Interim reanalysis data by employing composite analysis and lagged maximum covariance analysis. Our results show that interannual variability of <span class="hlt">extreme</span> <span class="hlt">winter</span> precipitation in Southeast China is in close accordance with the interannual variability of total <span class="hlt">winter</span> precipitation. Both are associated with similar abnormal circulation regimes, but for <span class="hlt">extreme</span> precipitation events the circulation anomalies and moisture transport channels are significantly intensified. Two main moisture transport channels are captured: one extends from the North Indian Ocean through India and the Bay of Bengal to South China, and the other from the West Pacific Ocean through Maritime Continent and South China Sea towards South China, which are related to the preceding autumn SST patterns, El Niño and the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD), respectively. El Niño (La Niña) SST anomalies induce anomalous anticyclonic (cyclonic) circulation over Philippine Sea, which is favorable (unfavorable) to <span class="hlt">warm</span> and humid air transport to South China from the tropical West Pacific by southwesterly (northeasterly) anomalies. Under these circulations, northeasterlies of East Asian <span class="hlt">Winter</span> Monsoon are weakened (strengthened) resulting in <span class="hlt">extreme</span> precipitation to be more (less) frequent in Southeast China. During the positive (negative) IOD phase, abundant (reduced) moisture transport to South China from tropical regions through India and Bay of Bengal is observed due to weakened (strengthened) Walker circulations and abnormal anticyclonic (cyclonic) circulation over India, leading to a higher (lower) likelihood for <span class="hlt">extreme</span> precipitation events in Southeast China. The underlying physical mechanisms</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=20070024434&hterms=warm+up&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D10%26Ntt%3Dwarm%2Bup','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=20070024434&hterms=warm+up&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D10%26Ntt%3Dwarm%2Bup"><span>The Remarkable 2003--2004 <span class="hlt">Winter</span> and Other Recent <span class="hlt">Warm</span> <span class="hlt">Winters</span> in the Arctic Stratosphere Since the Late 1990s</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Manney, Gloria L.; Kruger, Kirstin; Sabutis, Joseph L.; Sena, Sara Amina; Pawson, Steven</p> <p>2005-01-01</p> <p>The 2003-2004 Arctic <span class="hlt">winter</span> was remarkable in the approximately 50-year record of meteorological analyses. A major <span class="hlt">warming</span> beginning in early January 2004 led to nearly 2 months of vortex disruption with high-latitude easterlies in the middle to lower stratosphere. The upper stratospheric vortex broke up in late December, but began to recover by early January, and in February and March was the strongest since regular observations began in 1979. The lower stratospheric vortex broke up in late January. Comparison with 2 previous years, 1984-1985 and 1986-1987, with prolonged midwinter <span class="hlt">warming</span> periods shows unique characteristics of the 2003-2004 <span class="hlt">warming</span> period: The length of the vortex disruption, the strong and rapid recovery in the upper stratosphere, and the slow progression of the <span class="hlt">warming</span> from upper to lower stratosphere. January 2004 zonal mean winds in the middle and lower stratosphere were over 2 standard deviations below average. Examination of past variability shows that the recent frequency of major stratospheric <span class="hlt">warmings</span> (7 in the past 6 years) is unprecedented. Lower stratospheric temperatures were unusually high during 6 of the past 7 years, with 5 having much lower than usual potential for polar stratospheric cloud (PSC) formation and ozone loss (nearly none in 1998-1999, 2001-2002, and 2003-2004, and very little in 1997-1998 and 2000-2001). Middle and upper stratospheric temperatures, however, were unusually low during and after February. The pattern of 5 of the last 7 years with very low PSC potential would be expected to occur randomly once every 850 years. This cluster of <span class="hlt">warm</span> <span class="hlt">winters</span>, immediately following a period of unusually cold <span class="hlt">winters</span>, may have important implications for possible changes in interannual variability and for determination and attribution of trends in stratospheric temperatures and ozone.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=20070024434&hterms=clouds+warm&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D80%26Ntt%3Dclouds%2Bwarm','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=20070024434&hterms=clouds+warm&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D80%26Ntt%3Dclouds%2Bwarm"><span>The Remarkable 2003--2004 <span class="hlt">Winter</span> and Other Recent <span class="hlt">Warm</span> <span class="hlt">Winters</span> in the Arctic Stratosphere Since the Late 1990s</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Manney, Gloria L.; Kruger, Kirstin; Sabutis, Joseph L.; Sena, Sara Amina; Pawson, Steven</p> <p>2005-01-01</p> <p>The 2003-2004 Arctic <span class="hlt">winter</span> was remarkable in the approximately 50-year record of meteorological analyses. A major <span class="hlt">warming</span> beginning in early January 2004 led to nearly 2 months of vortex disruption with high-latitude easterlies in the middle to lower stratosphere. The upper stratospheric vortex broke up in late December, but began to recover by early January, and in February and March was the strongest since regular observations began in 1979. The lower stratospheric vortex broke up in late January. Comparison with 2 previous years, 1984-1985 and 1986-1987, with prolonged midwinter <span class="hlt">warming</span> periods shows unique characteristics of the 2003-2004 <span class="hlt">warming</span> period: The length of the vortex disruption, the strong and rapid recovery in the upper stratosphere, and the slow progression of the <span class="hlt">warming</span> from upper to lower stratosphere. January 2004 zonal mean winds in the middle and lower stratosphere were over 2 standard deviations below average. Examination of past variability shows that the recent frequency of major stratospheric <span class="hlt">warmings</span> (7 in the past 6 years) is unprecedented. Lower stratospheric temperatures were unusually high during 6 of the past 7 years, with 5 having much lower than usual potential for polar stratospheric cloud (PSC) formation and ozone loss (nearly none in 1998-1999, 2001-2002, and 2003-2004, and very little in 1997-1998 and 2000-2001). Middle and upper stratospheric temperatures, however, were unusually low during and after February. The pattern of 5 of the last 7 years with very low PSC potential would be expected to occur randomly once every 850 years. This cluster of <span class="hlt">warm</span> <span class="hlt">winters</span>, immediately following a period of unusually cold <span class="hlt">winters</span>, may have important implications for possible changes in interannual variability and for determination and attribution of trends in stratospheric temperatures and ozone.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3384199','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3384199"><span>Divergent responses to spring and <span class="hlt">winter</span> <span class="hlt">warming</span> drive community level flowering trends</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Cook, Benjamin I.; Wolkovich, Elizabeth M.; Parmesan, Camille</p> <p>2012-01-01</p> <p>Analyses of datasets throughout the temperate midlatitude regions show a widespread tendency for species to advance their springtime phenology, consistent with <span class="hlt">warming</span> trends over the past 20–50 y. Within these general trends toward earlier spring, however, are species that either have insignificant trends or have delayed their timing. Various explanations have been offered to explain this apparent nonresponsiveness to <span class="hlt">warming</span>, including the influence of other abiotic cues (e.g., photoperiod) or reductions in fall/<span class="hlt">winter</span> chilling (vernalization). Few studies, however, have explicitly attributed the historical trends of nonresponding species to any specific factor. Here, we analyzed long-term data on phenology and seasonal temperatures from 490 species on two continents and demonstrate that (i) apparent nonresponders are indeed responding to <span class="hlt">warming</span>, but their responses to fall/<span class="hlt">winter</span> and spring <span class="hlt">warming</span> are opposite in sign and of similar magnitude; (ii) observed trends in first flowering date depend strongly on the magnitude of a given species’ response to fall/<span class="hlt">winter</span> vs. spring <span class="hlt">warming</span>; and (iii) inclusion of fall/<span class="hlt">winter</span> temperature cues strongly improves hindcast model predictions of long-term flowering trends compared with models with spring <span class="hlt">warming</span> only. With a few notable exceptions, climate change research has focused on the overall mean trend toward phenological advance, minimizing discussion of apparently nonresponding species. Our results illuminate an understudied source of complexity in wild species responses and support the need for models incorporating diverse environmental cues to improve predictability of community level responses to anthropogenic climate change. PMID:22615406</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017EGUGA..19.6257N','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017EGUGA..19.6257N"><span>North Atlantic controls on wintertime <span class="hlt">warm</span> <span class="hlt">extremes</span> and aridification trends in the Middle East</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Niranjan Kumar, Kondapalli; Molini, Annalisa; Ouarda, Taha</p> <p>2017-04-01</p> <p>The Middle East is one of the most water stressed regions in the world, receiving the majority of its hydrological input during the <span class="hlt">winter</span>, in the form of highly variable and scattered precipitation. The persistence of anticyclonic conditions during the cold season can thus result in extended wintertime spells of exceptionally hot weather, favoring the onset of prolonged droughts and ultimately posing a threat to water resources in the region. Despite their potential impact on water-security, anomalous <span class="hlt">winter</span> <span class="hlt">warm</span> spells (WWS's), and their connection to the states of natural prominent climate modes, are still largely unexplored. We investigate their relationship with the internal modes of variability in the Atlantic Ocean, already known to influence <span class="hlt">winter</span> circulation and <span class="hlt">extremes</span> in the Northern Hemisphere. We show that the occurrence of WWS's in the Middle East is strongly correlated with Atlantic variability over decadal time scales. We also propose a teleconnection mechanism linking Atlantic variability to WWS's via the propagation of Rossby waves from the North Atlantic pool, and the mediation of the Mediterranean circulation, thereby providing a basis to better predict future <span class="hlt">warming</span> and aridification trends in the Middle East.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013NHESS..13.1243T','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013NHESS..13.1243T"><span>Analysis of <span class="hlt">extreme</span> summers and prior late <span class="hlt">winter</span>/spring conditions in central Europe</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Träger-Chatterjee, C.; Müller, R. W.; Bendix, J.</p> <p>2013-05-01</p> <p>Drought and heat waves during summer in mid-latitudes are a serious threat to human health and agriculture and have negative impacts on the infrastructure, such as problems in energy supply. The appearance of such <span class="hlt">extreme</span> events is expected to increase with the progress of global <span class="hlt">warming</span>. A better understanding of the development of <span class="hlt">extremely</span> hot and dry summers and the identification of possible precursors could help improve existing seasonal forecasts in this regard, and could possibly lead to the development of early warning methods. The development of <span class="hlt">extremely</span> hot and dry summer seasons in central Europe is attributed to a combined effect of the dominance of anticyclonic weather regimes and soil moisture-atmosphere interactions. The atmospheric circulation largely determines the amount of solar irradiation and the amount of precipitation in an area. These two variables are themselves major factors controlling the soil moisture. Thus, solar irradiation and precipitation are used as proxies to analyse <span class="hlt">extreme</span> sunny and dry late <span class="hlt">winter</span>/spring and summer seasons for the period 1958-2011 in Germany and adjacent areas. For this purpose, solar irradiation data from the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecast 40-yr and interim re-analysis dataset, as well as remote sensing data are used. Precipitation data are taken from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project. To analyse the atmospheric circulation geopotential data at 850 hPa are also taken from the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecast 40-yr and interim re-analysis datasets. For the years in which <span class="hlt">extreme</span> summers in terms of high solar irradiation and low precipitation are identified, the previous late <span class="hlt">winter</span>/spring conditions of solar irradiation and precipitation in Germany and adjacent areas are analysed. Results show that if the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is not very intensely developed, <span class="hlt">extremely</span> high solar irradiation amounts, together with <span class="hlt">extremely</span> low precipitation</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1990BlJMH...1...93T','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1990BlJMH...1...93T"><span><span class="hlt">Winter</span> stratospheric <span class="hlt">warmings</span> and their influence on the temperature regime in the lower ionosphere</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Tarasenko, D. A.; Kidiiarova, V. G.; Milenkova, L. P.; Zakhariev, V. I.; Spasov, Kh. V.</p> <p></p> <p>An analysis is presented of the relationship between the temperature conditions in the D layer of the ionosphere and the intensity of <span class="hlt">winter</span> stratospheric <span class="hlt">warmings</span> in different geographic regions, namely, high latitudes and midlatitudes in the Northern Hemisphere and high latitudes in the Southern Hemisphere. The relationships between the temperatures in the stratosphere and mesosphere and the parameters' transmission coefficient, defraction coefficient, and the phase of the two-year equatorial circulation cycle are considered. The temperature conditions in the stratosphere and mesosphere are found to be controlled by the quasi-two-year cycle of the equatorial circulation, which is connected with the intensity of <span class="hlt">winter</span> stratospheric <span class="hlt">warmings</span>.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20000086615','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20000086615"><span><span class="hlt">Extreme</span> <span class="hlt">Winter</span>/Early-Spring Temperature Anomalies in Central Europe</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Otterman, Joseph; Atlas, Robert; Ardizzone, Joseph; Brakke, Thomas; Chou, Shu-Hsien; Jusem, Juan Carlos; Glantz, Michael; Rogers, Jeff; Sud, Yogesh; Susskind, Joel</p> <p>2000-01-01</p> <p><span class="hlt">Extreme</span> seasonal fluctuations of the surface-air temperature characterize the climate of central Europe, 45-60 deg North Temperature difference between <span class="hlt">warm</span> 1990 and cold 1996 in the January-March period, persisting for more than two weeks at a time, amounted to 18 C for extensive areas. These anomalies in the surface-air temperature stem in the first place from differences in the low level flow from the eastern North-Atlantic: the value of the Index 1na of southwesterlies over the eastern North-Atlantic was 8.0 m/s in February 1990, but only 2.6 m/ s in February 1996. The primary forcing by <span class="hlt">warm</span> advection to positive anomalies in monthly mean surface temperature produced strong synoptic-scale uplift at the 700 mb level over some regions in Europe. The strong uplift contributed in 1990 to a much larger cloud-cover over central Europe, which reduced heat-loss to space (greenhouse effect). Thus, spring arrived earlier than usual in 1990, but later than usual in 1996.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015EGUGA..17.4935S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015EGUGA..17.4935S"><span>Increased frequency of ENSO <span class="hlt">extremes</span> under greenhouse <span class="hlt">warming</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Santoso, Agus; Cai, Wenju</p> <p>2015-04-01</p> <p>The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is Earth's largest source of year-to-year climate variability which exerts significant environmental and socio-economic impacts worldwide. The rise of ENSO, signified by large changes in ocean and atmospheric circulations, occurs through a suite of Bjerknes coupled feedback processes in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Observations over recent decades have seen some peculiar behaviour of ENSO that has challenged our scientific understanding of this remarkable phenomenon. 1982 and 1997 saw the strongest El Nino events in modern records, uniquely characterised by eastward propagating sea surface temperature anomalies, a behaviour not seen during moderate events and La Nina. The impacts were severe, causing multi billion dollars in damages, thousands of human lives lost, and destruction of marine habitats. The 1997 El Nino was followed by an exceptionally strong 1998 La Nina event which was also catastrophic. Given their significant impacts, one of the most pressing issues our society needs to address is whether and how ENSO will respond to the increase in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. The increasing breadth of climate models available under the efforts of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) has made addressing this issue possible. In contrast to previous finding of no robust ENSO response, recent research utilising the large CMIP database has found intermodel consensus of significant increases in the frequency of both El Nino and La Nina events that are '<span class="hlt">extreme</span> like', analogous to the 82, 97, and 98 events. The weakened westward flowing mean equatorial Pacific currents are expected to give rise to more frequent eastward propagating El Nino under greenhouse <span class="hlt">warming</span>. The projected faster <span class="hlt">warming</span> of the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean than the surrounding regions would make it easier for atmospheric convection to shift eastward to generate rainfall response similar to that during an <span class="hlt">extreme</span> El Nino. The</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014EGUGA..1610800D','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014EGUGA..1610800D"><span><span class="hlt">Extreme</span> Precipitation Events in Saudi Arabia: Tropical-Extratropical Interactions in Autumn, <span class="hlt">Winter</span> and Spring</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>De Vries, Andries Jan; Feldstein, Steven B.; Fnais, Mohammed; Tyrlis, Evangelos; Lelieveld, Jos</p> <p>2014-05-01</p> <p>The Middle East has a very dry climate, however, at times, <span class="hlt">extreme</span> rainfall can cause flash floods with severe societal impacts. Using reanalysis (ERA-Interim) and observational precipitation (TRMM 3B42 and station) data, we study the underlying synoptic-scale atmospheric dynamics of three <span class="hlt">extreme</span> precipitation events in Saudi Arabia occurring in autumn, <span class="hlt">winter</span> and spring. All three cases involve strong tropical-extratropical interactions. A midlatitude upper level trough, associated with Rossby wave breaking, intrudes into the subtropics and interacts with the (sub)tropical low level circulation, which triggers intensive poleward transport of tropical moisture and strong upward motions. The autumn case (November 2009) shows enhanced moisture transport over the Arabian and Red Seas together with the northward extension of the Red Sea trough, i.e. being an "Active Red Sea Trough" event. The <span class="hlt">winter</span> case (January 2005) has characteristics of a tropical plume and involves the coupling of an equatorward penetrating cyclonic disturbance and the tropical low pressure zone over Equatorial Africa, significant moisture transport over central Africa and an intensified subtropical jet stream. The spring case (April-May 2013) demonstrates a prolonged period of intense convective activity, promoted by strong surface heating, a quasi-stationary upper level trough and associated cold air, and a persistent low level <span class="hlt">warm</span> and moist air flow, partly originating from the southern hemispheric Indian Ocean through a cross-equatorial surge. The three events are strongly influenced by the seasonality of the climatological large-scale circulation.</p> </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_2");'>2</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_3");'>3</a></li> <li class="active"><span>4</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_5");'>5</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_6");'>6</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div><!-- col-sm-12 --> </div><!-- row --> </div><!-- page_4 --> <div id="page_5" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_3");'>3</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_4");'>4</a></li> <li class="active"><span>5</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_6");'>6</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_7");'>7</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="81"> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010PhDT.......485S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010PhDT.......485S"><span>Seasonal Climate <span class="hlt">Extremes</span> : Mechanism, Predictability and Responses to Global <span class="hlt">Warming</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Shongwe, M. E.</p> <p>2010-01-01</p> <p>Climate <span class="hlt">extremes</span> are rarely occurring natural phenomena in the climate system. They often pose one of the greatest environmental threats to human and natural systems. Statistical methods are commonly used to investigate characteristics of climate <span class="hlt">extremes</span>. The fitted statistical properties are often interpolated or extrapolated to give an indication of the likelihood of a certain event within a given period or interval. Under changing climatic conditions, the statistical properties of climate <span class="hlt">extremes</span> are also changing. It is an important scientific goal to predict how the properties of <span class="hlt">extreme</span> events change. To achieve this goal, observational and model studies aimed at revealing important features are a necessary prerequisite. Notable progress has been made in understanding mechanisms that influence climate variability and <span class="hlt">extremes</span> in many parts of the globe including Europe. However, some of the recently observed unprecedented <span class="hlt">extremes</span> cannot be fully explained from the already identified forcing factors. A better understanding of why these <span class="hlt">extreme</span> events occur and their sensitivity to certain reinforcing and/or competing factors is useful. Understanding their basic form as well as their temporal variability is also vital and can contribute to global scientific efforts directed at advancing climate prediction capabilities, particularly making skilful forecasts and realistic projections of <span class="hlt">extremes</span>. In this thesis temperature and precipitation <span class="hlt">extremes</span> in Europe and Africa, respectively, are investigated. Emphasis is placed on the mechanisms underlying the occurrence of the <span class="hlt">extremes</span>, their predictability and their likely response to global <span class="hlt">warming</span>. The focus is on some selected seasons when <span class="hlt">extremes</span> typically occur. An atmospheric energy budget analysis for the record-breaking European Autumn 2006 event has been carried out with the goal to identify the sources of energy for the <span class="hlt">extreme</span> event. Net radiational heating is compared to surface turbulent fluxes of</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.osti.gov/scitech/servlets/purl/755023','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech/servlets/purl/755023"><span>ON THE INSTABILITY OF TROPICAL WESTERN PACIFIC <span class="hlt">WARM</span> POOL DURING THE BOREAL <span class="hlt">WINTER</span> AND SPRING</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech">SciTech Connect</a></p> <p>BARR-KUMARAKULASINGHE,S.A.</p> <p>1998-03-23</p> <p>A source of instability in the western Pacific <span class="hlt">warm</span> pool is shown to be due to sea surface elevation variations caused by changes in the zonal sea-surface temperature (SST) gradient and the changes in the Pacific Ocean basin length in relation to the <span class="hlt">warm</span> pool latitudinal location. The variation of the sea-surface elevation is measured by using the thermocline depth response calculated from a two-layer ocean. The <span class="hlt">warm</span> pool is shown to be barely at equilibrium during the boreal late <span class="hlt">winter</span> and early spring by comparing the measured thermocline at 110{degree}W, 0{degree}E with the calculated thermocline depth. Based on this analysis, a failure or reversal of the climatological zonal winds are apparently not a necessary precursor for the instability of the <span class="hlt">warm</span> pool and initiation of a <span class="hlt">warm</span> event. A <span class="hlt">warm</span> event can be initiated by an increase in the size of the <span class="hlt">warm</span> pool and/or an increase in zonal SST differences during the boreal/<span class="hlt">winter</span> spring. This mechanism could be an alternate mechanism for El-Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) dynamics to that postulated by Bjeknes (1969).</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/pubs/48000','TREESEARCH'); return false;" href="https://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/pubs/48000"><span>Geographically variable response of Dendroctonus ponderosae to <span class="hlt">winter</span> <span class="hlt">warming</span> in the western United States</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/">Treesearch</a></p> <p>Aaron S. Weed; Barbara J. Bentz; Matthew P. Ayres; Thomas P. Holmes</p> <p>2015-01-01</p> <p>Milder <span class="hlt">winters</span> have contributed to recent outbreaks of Dendroctonus ponderosae in Canada, but have not been evaluated as a factor permitting concurrent outbreaks across its large range (ca.1500 9 1500 km) in the western United States (US). We examined the trend in minimum air temperatures in D. ponderosae habitats across the western US and assessed whether <span class="hlt">warming</span>...</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23705390','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23705390"><span>[Effects of nighttime <span class="hlt">warming</span> on <span class="hlt">winter</span> wheat root growth and soil nutrient availability].</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Zhang, Ming-Qian; Chen, Jin; Guo, Jia; Tian, Yun-Lu; Yang, Shi-Jia; Zhang, Li; Yang, Bing; Zhang, Wei-Jian</p> <p>2013-02-01</p> <p>Climate <span class="hlt">warming</span> has an obvious asymmetry between day and night, with a greater increment of air temperature at nighttime than at daytime. By adopting passive nighttime <span class="hlt">warming</span> (PNW) system, a two-year field experiment of nighttime <span class="hlt">warming</span> was conducted in the main production areas of <span class="hlt">winter</span> wheat in China (Shijiazhuang of Hebei Province, Xuzhou of Jiangsu Province, Xuchang of Henan Province, and Zhenjiang of Jiangsu Province) in 2009 and 2010, with the responses of soil pH and available nutrient contents during the whole growth periods and of wheat root characteristics at heading stage determined. As compared with the control (no nighttime <span class="hlt">warming</span>), nighttime <span class="hlt">warming</span> decreased the soil pH and available nutrient contents significantly, and increased the root dry mass and root/shoot ratio to a certain extent. During the whole growth period of <span class="hlt">winter</span> wheat, nighttime <span class="hlt">warming</span> decreased the soil pH in Shijiazhuang, Xuzhou, Xuchang, and Zhenjiang averagely by 0.4%, 0.4%, 0.7%, and 0.9%, the soil alkaline nitrogen content averagely by 8.1%, 8.1%, 7.1%, and 6.0%, the soil available phosphorus content averagely by 15.7%, 12.1%, 19.6%, and 25.8%, and the soil available potassium content averagely by 11.5%, 7.6%, 7.6% , and 10.1%, respectively. However, nighttime <span class="hlt">warming</span> increased the wheat root dry mass at heading stage in Shijiazhuang, Xuzhou, and Zhenjiang averagely by 31. 5% , 27.0%, and 14.5%, and the root/shoot ratio at heading stage in Shijiazhuang, Xuchang, and Zhenjiang averagely by 23.8%, 13.7% and 9.7%, respectively. Our results indicated that nighttime <span class="hlt">warming</span> could affect the soil nutrient supply and <span class="hlt">winter</span> wheat growth via affecting the soil chemical properties.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.osti.gov/scitech/servlets/purl/1229998','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech/servlets/purl/1229998"><span>Increasing water cycle <span class="hlt">extremes</span> in California and relation to ENSO cycle under global <span class="hlt">warming</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech">SciTech Connect</a></p> <p>Yoon, Jin -Ho; Wang, S. -Y. Simon; Gillies, Robert R.; Kravitz, Benjamin S.; Hipps, Lawrence; Rasch, Philip J.</p> <p>2015-10-21</p> <p>California has experienced its most severe drought in recorded history since the <span class="hlt">winter</span> of 2013-2014. The long duration of drought has stressed statewide water resources and the economy, while fueling an extraordinary increase in wildfires. The effects of global <span class="hlt">warming</span> on the regional climate include a hotter and drier climate, as well as earlier snowmelt, both of which exacerbate drought conditions. However, connections between a changing climate and how climate oscillations modulate regional water cycle <span class="hlt">extremes</span> are not well understood. Here we analyze large-ensemble simulations of future climate change in California using the Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1) and multiple climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Both intense drought and excessive flooding are projected to increase by at least 50% toward the end of the 21st century. Furthermore, the projected increase in water cycle <span class="hlt">extremes</span> is associated with tighter relation to El Niño and Southern Oscillation (ENSO), particularly <span class="hlt">extreme</span> El Niño and La Niña events, which modulates California’s climate not only through its <span class="hlt">warm</span> and cold phases, but also ENSO’s precursor patterns.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/pages/biblio/1229998-increasing-water-cycle-extremes-california-relation-enso-cycle-under-global-warming','SCIGOV-DOEP'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/pages/biblio/1229998-increasing-water-cycle-extremes-california-relation-enso-cycle-under-global-warming"><span>Increasing water cycle <span class="hlt">extremes</span> in California and relation to ENSO cycle under global <span class="hlt">warming</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.osti.gov/pages">DOE PAGES</a></p> <p>Yoon, Jin -Ho; Wang, S. -Y. Simon; Gillies, Robert R.; ...</p> <p>2015-10-21</p> <p>California has experienced its most severe drought in recorded history since the <span class="hlt">winter</span> of 2013-2014. The long duration of drought has stressed statewide water resources and the economy, while fueling an extraordinary increase in wildfires. The effects of global <span class="hlt">warming</span> on the regional climate include a hotter and drier climate, as well as earlier snowmelt, both of which exacerbate drought conditions. However, connections between a changing climate and how climate oscillations modulate regional water cycle <span class="hlt">extremes</span> are not well understood. Here we analyze large-ensemble simulations of future climate change in California using the Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1)more » and multiple climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Both intense drought and excessive flooding are projected to increase by at least 50% toward the end of the 21st century. Furthermore, the projected increase in water cycle <span class="hlt">extremes</span> is associated with tighter relation to El Niño and Southern Oscillation (ENSO), particularly <span class="hlt">extreme</span> El Niño and La Niña events, which modulates California’s climate not only through its <span class="hlt">warm</span> and cold phases, but also ENSO’s precursor patterns.« less</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017EGUGA..1918753M','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017EGUGA..1918753M"><span>Does the recent <span class="hlt">warming</span> hiatus exist over northern Asia for <span class="hlt">winter</span> wind chill temperature?</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Ma, Ying</p> <p>2017-04-01</p> <p>Wind chill temperature (WCT) describes the joint effect of wind velocity and air temperature on exposed body skin and could support policy makers in designing plans to reduce the risks of notably cold and windy weather. This study examined <span class="hlt">winter</span> WCT over northern Asia during 1973-2013 by analyzing in situ station data. The <span class="hlt">winter</span> WCT <span class="hlt">warming</span> rate over the Tibetan Plateau slowed during 1999-2013 (-0.04 °C/decade) compared with that during 1973-1998 (0.67 °C/decade). The <span class="hlt">winter</span> WCT <span class="hlt">warming</span> hiatus has also been observed in the remainder of Northern Asia with trends of 1.11 °C/decade during 1973-1998 but -1.02 °C/decade during 1999-2013, except for the Far East of Russia (FE), where the <span class="hlt">winter</span> WCT has continued to heat up during both the earlier period of 1973-1998 (0.54 °C/decade) and the recent period of 1999-2013 (0.75 °C/decade). The results indicate that the influence of temperature on <span class="hlt">winter</span> WCT is greater than that of wind speed over northern Asia. Atmospheric circulation changes associated with air temperature and wind speed were analyzed to identify the causes for the <span class="hlt">warming</span> hiatus of <span class="hlt">winter</span> WCT over northern Asia. The distributions of sea level pressure and 500 hPa height anomalies during 1999-2013 transported cold air from the high latitudes to middle latitudes, resulting in low air temperature over Northern Asia except for the Far East of Russia. Over the Tibetan Plateau, the increase in wind speed offset the increase in air temperature during 1999-2013. For the Far East, the southerly wind from the Western Pacific drove the temperature up during the 1999-2013 period via <span class="hlt">warm</span> advection.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFMGC31A1106M','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFMGC31A1106M"><span>Global <span class="hlt">Warming</span> Denial: The Human Brain on <span class="hlt">Extremes</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Marrouch, N.; Johnson, B. T.; Slawinska, J. M.</p> <p>2016-12-01</p> <p>Future assessments of climate change rely on multi-model intercomparisons, and projections of the <span class="hlt">extreme</span> events frequency are of particular interest as associated with significant economic costs and social threats. Notably, systematically simulated increases in the number of <span class="hlt">extreme</span> weather events agree well with observational data over the last decade. At the same time, as the climate grows more volatile, widespread denial of climate change and its anthropocentric causes continues to proliferate (based on nationally representative U.S. polls). Simultaneous increases in both high-impact exposure and its denial is in stark contrast with our knowledge of socio-natural dynamics and its models. Disentangling this paradox requires an understanding of the origins of global <span class="hlt">warming</span> denial at an individual level, and how subsequently it propagates across social networks of many scales, shaping global policies. However, as the real world and its dynamical models are complex (high-dimensional and coupled), separating the particular feedback of interest remains a challenge. Here, we demonstrate this feedback in a controlled experiment, where increasing unpredictability using helplessness-training paradigms induces changes in global <span class="hlt">warming</span> denial, and the endorsement of conservative ideology. We explain these results in the context of evolutionary theory framing self-deception and denial as remnants of evolutionary processes that shaped and facilitated the survival of the human species. Further we link these findings to changes in neural and higher-level cognitive processes in response to unpredictable stimuli. We argue that climate change denial is an example of an <span class="hlt">extreme</span> belief system that carries the potential to threaten the wellbeing of both humans and other species alike. It is therefore crucial to better quantify climate denial using social informatics tools that provide the means to improve its representations in coupled socio-geophysical models to mitigate its</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3988157','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3988157"><span>Climatic <span class="hlt">Warming</span> Increases <span class="hlt">Winter</span> Wheat Yield but Reduces Grain Nitrogen Concentration in East China</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Deng, Aixing; Song, Zhenwei; Zhang, Baoming; Zhang, Weijian</p> <p>2014-01-01</p> <p>Climatic <span class="hlt">warming</span> is often predicted to reduce wheat yield and grain quality in China. However, direct evidence is still lacking. We conducted a three-year experiment with a Free Air Temperature Increase (FATI) facility to examine the responses of <span class="hlt">winter</span> wheat growth and plant N accumulation to a moderate temperature increase of 1.5°C predicted to prevail by 2050 in East China. Three <span class="hlt">warming</span> treatments (AW: all-day <span class="hlt">warming</span>; DW: daytime <span class="hlt">warming</span>; NW: nighttime <span class="hlt">warming</span>) were applied for an entire growth period. Consistent <span class="hlt">warming</span> effects on wheat plant were recorded across the experimental years. An increase of ca. 1.5°C in daily, daytime and nighttime mean temperatures shortened the length of pre-anthesis period averagely by 12.7, 8.3 and 10.7 d (P<0.05), respectively, but had no significant impact on the length of the post-anthesis period. <span class="hlt">Warming</span> did not significantly alter the aboveground biomass production, but the grain yield was 16.3, 18.1 and 19.6% (P<0.05) higher in the AW, DW and NW plots than the non-<span class="hlt">warmed</span> plot, respectively. <span class="hlt">Warming</span> also significantly increased plant N uptake and total biomass N accumulation. However, <span class="hlt">warming</span> significantly reduced grain N concentrations while increased N concentrations in the leaves and stems. Together, our results demonstrate differential impacts of <span class="hlt">warming</span> on the depositions of grain starch and protein, highlighting the needs to further understand the mechanisms that underlie <span class="hlt">warming</span> impacts on plant C and N metabolism in wheat. PMID:24736557</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24736557','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24736557"><span>Climatic <span class="hlt">warming</span> increases <span class="hlt">winter</span> wheat yield but reduces grain nitrogen concentration in east China.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Tian, Yunlu; Zheng, Chengyan; Chen, Jin; Chen, Changqing; Deng, Aixing; Song, Zhenwei; Zhang, Baoming; Zhang, Weijian</p> <p>2014-01-01</p> <p>Climatic <span class="hlt">warming</span> is often predicted to reduce wheat yield and grain quality in China. However, direct evidence is still lacking. We conducted a three-year experiment with a Free Air Temperature Increase (FATI) facility to examine the responses of <span class="hlt">winter</span> wheat growth and plant N accumulation to a moderate temperature increase of 1.5°C predicted to prevail by 2050 in East China. Three <span class="hlt">warming</span> treatments (AW: all-day <span class="hlt">warming</span>; DW: daytime <span class="hlt">warming</span>; NW: nighttime <span class="hlt">warming</span>) were applied for an entire growth period. Consistent <span class="hlt">warming</span> effects on wheat plant were recorded across the experimental years. An increase of ca. 1.5°C in daily, daytime and nighttime mean temperatures shortened the length of pre-anthesis period averagely by 12.7, 8.3 and 10.7 d (P<0.05), respectively, but had no significant impact on the length of the post-anthesis period. <span class="hlt">Warming</span> did not significantly alter the aboveground biomass production, but the grain yield was 16.3, 18.1 and 19.6% (P<0.05) higher in the AW, DW and NW plots than the non-<span class="hlt">warmed</span> plot, respectively. <span class="hlt">Warming</span> also significantly increased plant N uptake and total biomass N accumulation. However, <span class="hlt">warming</span> significantly reduced grain N concentrations while increased N concentrations in the leaves and stems. Together, our results demonstrate differential impacts of <span class="hlt">warming</span> on the depositions of grain starch and protein, highlighting the needs to further understand the mechanisms that underlie <span class="hlt">warming</span> impacts on plant C and N metabolism in wheat.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017EGUGA..19.3490H','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017EGUGA..19.3490H"><span><span class="hlt">Warming</span> enhances nitrogen uptake by <span class="hlt">winter</span> wheat under two tillage systems</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Hou, Ruixing</p> <p>2017-04-01</p> <p>Despite the perceived importance of N to wheat growth and production, few studies have attempted to examine the effects of <span class="hlt">warming</span> on wheat N uptake patter or its preference for NO3-N, NH4+-N, especially under different tillage systems. In the North China Plain, an in situ 15N labelling study was conducted on <span class="hlt">winter</span> wheat in which effects of experimental <span class="hlt">warming</span> during the jointing stage under till and no-till tillage systems on uptake of total N and three forms of N (NO3-N, NH4+-N and glycine-N) was studied. <span class="hlt">Warming</span> strongly enhanced wheat biomass and N content in both roots and shoots. Total N uptake rates increased by 40% and 47% under till and no-till treatments, respectively. <span class="hlt">Warming</span> changed the uptake pattern of the three forms of N by significantly increasing the contributions of NO3-N and glycine-derived N, while decreasing the contribution of NH4+-N. Between the two tillage systems, wheat under no-till without <span class="hlt">warming</span> obtained more N than till. However, <span class="hlt">warming</span> was found to suppress N uptake under no-till relative to till. Collectively, high temperatures accelerate N sequestration in <span class="hlt">winter</span> wheat and improve the preferential contribution of NO3-N due to high soil N availability and enhanced microbial activity.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012AGUFMGC44D..06S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012AGUFMGC44D..06S"><span>Is Global <span class="hlt">Warming</span> significantly affecting atmospheric circulation <span class="hlt">extremes</span>?</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Sardeshmukh, P. D.; Compo, G. P.; Penland, M. C.</p> <p>2012-12-01</p> <p>Although the anthropogenic influence on 20th century global <span class="hlt">warming</span> is well established, the influence on the atmospheric circulation, especially on regional scales at which natural variability is relatively large, has proved harder to ascertain. And yet assertions are often made to this effect, especially in the media whenever an <span class="hlt">extreme</span> <span class="hlt">warm</span> or cold or dry or wet spell occurs and is tied to an apparent trend in the large-scale atmospheric circulation pattern. We are addressing this important issue using the longest currently available global atmospheric circulation dataset, an ensemble of 56 equally likely estimates of the atmospheric state within observational error bounds generated for every 6 hours from 1871 to the present in the 20th Century Reanalysis Project (20CR; Compo et al, QJRMS 2011). We previously presented evidence that long-term trends in the indices of several major modes of atmospheric circulation variability, including the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the tropical Pacific Walker Circulation (PWC), were weak or non-existent over the full period of record in the 20CR dataset. We have since investigated the possibility of a change in the probability density functions (PDFs) of the daily values of these indices, including changes in their tails, from the first to the second halves of the 20th century and found no statistically significant change. This was done taking into account the generally skewed and heavy-tailed character of these PDFs, and using both raw histograms and fitted "SGS" probability distributions (whose relevance in describing large-scale atmospheric variability was demonstrated in Sardeshmukh and Sura, J. Climate 2009) to assess the significance of any changes through extensive Monte Carlo simulations. We stress that without such an explicit accounting of departures from normal distributions, detection and attribution studies of changes in climate <span class="hlt">extremes</span> may be seriously compromised and lead to wrong conclusions. Our</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016JGRD..121.1698W','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016JGRD..121.1698W"><span>The role of the tropical West Pacific in the <span class="hlt">extreme</span> Northern Hemisphere <span class="hlt">winter</span> of 2013/2014</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Watson, Peter A. G.; Weisheimer, Antje; Knight, Jeff R.; Palmer, T. N.</p> <p>2016-02-01</p> <p>In the 2013/2014 <span class="hlt">winter</span>, the eastern U.S. was exceptionally cold, the Bering Strait region was exceptionally <span class="hlt">warm</span>, California was in the midst of drought, and the UK suffered severe flooding. It has been suggested that elevated sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the tropical West Pacific (TWPAC) were partly to blame due to them producing a Rossby wave train that propagated into the extratropics. We find that seasonal forecasts with the tropical atmosphere relaxed toward a reanalysis give 2013/2014 <span class="hlt">winter</span> mean anomalies with strong similarities to those observed in the Northern Hemisphere, indicating that low-latitude anomalies had a role in the development of the <span class="hlt">extremes</span>. Relaxing just the TWPAC produces a strong wave train over the North Pacific and North America in January, but not in the <span class="hlt">winter</span> mean. This suggests that anomalies in this region alone had a large influence but cannot explain the <span class="hlt">extremes</span> through the whole <span class="hlt">winter</span>. We also examine the response to applying the observed TWPAC SST anomalies in two atmospheric general circulation models. We find that this does produce <span class="hlt">winter</span> mean anomalies in the North Pacific and North America resembling those observed and that the tropical forcing of Rossby waves due to the applied SST anomalies appears stronger than that in reanalysis, except in January. Therefore, both experiments indicate that the TWPAC influence was important, but the true strength of the TWPAC influence is uncertain. None of the experiments indicate a strong systematic impact of the TWPAC anomalies on Europe.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016EGUGA..1815714W','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016EGUGA..1815714W"><span>The role of the tropical West Pacific in the <span class="hlt">extreme</span> northern hemisphere <span class="hlt">winter</span> of 2013/14</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Watson, Peter; Weisheimer, Antje; Knight, Jeff; Palmer, Tim</p> <p>2016-04-01</p> <p>In the 2013/14 <span class="hlt">winter</span>, the eastern USA was exceptionally cold, the Bering Strait region was exceptionally <span class="hlt">warm</span>, California was in the midst of drought and the UK suffered severe flooding. It has been suggested that elevated SSTs in the tropical West Pacific (TWPAC) were partly to blame due to their producing a Rossby wavetrain that propagated into the extratropics. We find that seasonal forecasts with the tropical atmosphere relaxed towards a reanalysis give 2013/14 <span class="hlt">winter</span>-mean anomalies with strong similarities to those observed in the Northern Hemisphere, indicating that low-latitude anomalies had a role in the development of the <span class="hlt">extremes</span>. Relaxing just the TWPAC produces a strong wavetrain over the North Pacific and North America in January, but not in the <span class="hlt">winter</span>-mean. This suggests that anomalies in this region alone had a large influence, but cannot explain the <span class="hlt">extremes</span> through the whole <span class="hlt">winter</span>. We also examine the response to applying the observed TWPAC SST anomalies in two atmospheric general circulation models. We find that this does produce <span class="hlt">winter</span>-mean anomalies in the North Pacific and North America resembling those observed, but that the tropical forcing of Rossby waves due to the applied SST anomalies appears stronger than that in reanalysis, except in January. Therefore both experiments indicate that the TWPAC influence was important, but the true strength of the TWPAC influence is uncertain. None of the experiments indicate a strong systematic impact of the TWPAC anomalies on Europe.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013EGUGA..15.2922T','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013EGUGA..15.2922T"><span><span class="hlt">Extreme</span> temperature contrast of the year 2012 in Greece: An exceptionally cold <span class="hlt">winter</span> and a record breaking summer</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Tolika, Konstantia; Anagnostopoulou, Christina; Maheras, Panagiotis; Velikou, Kondylia</p> <p>2013-04-01</p> <p>During the past decade several regions all over Europe have experienced severe heat waves with serious social and environmental impacts. The year of 2003 was characterized by record breaking high temperatures for central Europe, while the year of 2007 was a remarkably <span class="hlt">warm</span> year of the majority of the Eastern Mediterranean. During this year, three major heat waves were detected in Greece during summer and abnormally high temperatures were also observed through the cold season of 2007. It was found that the <span class="hlt">winter</span> minimum temperatures were statistically more <span class="hlt">extreme</span> than the summer maxima. Moreover, exceptionally high maximum and minimum temperatures occurred in November of 2010 affection the entire Greek region while September of the following year was also characterized by large departures of maximum temperatures from the long term mean values and the highest minimum temperature average in comparison to the reference period 1958-2000. The past year (2012) could also be characterized as a year of <span class="hlt">extremes</span>. This time a temperature contrast was detected in the domain of study with a prolonged cold - season spell during <span class="hlt">winter</span> and new record - breaking <span class="hlt">extreme</span> maximum and minimum summer temperatures. More specifically it was found that the summer of 2012 was the warmest one since 1958. The whole season was characterized by long - lasting <span class="hlt">warm</span> conditions with large departures from the long term (up to 4oC for Tmax) and this <span class="hlt">warming</span> phenomenon was more intense during July and August. In contrast the <span class="hlt">winter</span> season (December 2011 - February 2012) was found to be in the ten coldest <span class="hlt">winters</span> of the last 55 years. The departures from the mean are lower than summer (1oC to 1.5oC negative anomalies) but most of the days were found to have lower Tmax, Tmin and Tmean values than the average daily temperatures of the period 1958-2000. Finally, it is worth mentioning that the year of 2012 was characterized by the highest annual temperature range reaching up to 26oC in several</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFM.A23H0328M','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFM.A23H0328M"><span>Does the Recent <span class="hlt">Warming</span> Hiatus Exist over Northern Asia for <span class="hlt">Winter</span> Wind Chill Temperature?</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Ma, Y.; Mao, R.; Shenghui, F.; Gong, D.; Kim, S. J.</p> <p>2016-12-01</p> <p>Wind chill temperature (WCT) describes the joint effect of wind velocity and air temperature on exposed body skin and could support policy makers in designing plans to reduce the risks of notably cold and windy weather. This study examined <span class="hlt">winter</span> WCT over northern Asia during 1973-2013 by analyzing in situ station data. The <span class="hlt">winter</span> WCT <span class="hlt">warming</span> rate over the Tibetan Plateau slowed during 1999-2013 (-0.04°C/decade) compared with that during 1973-1998 (0.67°C/decade). The <span class="hlt">winter</span> WCT <span class="hlt">warming</span> hiatus has also been observed in the remainder of Northern Asia with trends of 1.11°C/decade during 1973-1998 but -1.02°C/decade during 1999-2013, except for the Far East of Russia (FE), where the <span class="hlt">winter</span> WCT has continued to heat up during both the earlier period of 1973-1998 (0.54°C/decade) and the recent period of 1999-2013 (0.75°C/decade). The results indicate that the influence of temperature on <span class="hlt">winter</span> WCT is greater than that of wind speed over northern Asia. Atmospheric circulation changes associated with air temperatureand wind speed were analyzed to identify the causes for the <span class="hlt">warming</span> hiatus of <span class="hlt">winter</span> WCT over northern Asia. The distributions of sea level pressure and 500 hPa height anomalies during 1999-2013 transported cold air from the high latitudes to middle latitudes, resulting in low air temperature over Northern Asia except for the Far East of Russia. Over the Tibetan Plateau, the increase in wind speed offset the increase in air temperature during 1999-2013. For the Far East, the southerly wind from the Western Pacific drove the temperature up during the 1999-2013 period via warmadvection.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27078968','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27078968"><span>[Effects of Reduced Water and Diurnal <span class="hlt">Warming</span> on <span class="hlt">Winter</span>-Wheat Biomass and Soil Respiration].</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Wu, Yang-zhou; Chen, Jian; Hu, Zheng-hua; Xie, Yan; Chen, Shu-tao; Zhang, Xue-song; Shen, Shuang-he; Chen, Xi</p> <p>2016-01-15</p> <p>Field experiments were conducted in <span class="hlt">winter</span> wheat-growing season to investigate the effect of reduced water and diurnal <span class="hlt">warming</span> on wheat biomass and soil respiration. The experimental treatments included the control (CK), 30% reduced water (W), diurnal <span class="hlt">warming</span> (T, enhanced 2 degrees C), and the combined treatment (TW, 30% reduced water plus diurnal <span class="hlt">warming</span> 2 degrees C). Soil respiration rate was measured using a static chamber-gas chromatograph technique. The results showed that in the <span class="hlt">winter</span> wheat-growing season, compared to CK, T and TW treatments significantly increased shoot biomass by 46.0% (P = 0.002) and 19.8% (P = 0.032) during the elongation-booting stage, respectively. T and TW treatments also significantly increased the harvested shoot biomass by 19.8% (P = 0.050) and 34.6% (P = 0.028), respectively. On the other hand, W treatment had no significant effect on shoot biomass, and W, T, and TW treatments didn't significantly change the root biomass. T and W treatments had no significant effect on the mean respiration rate (MRR) of soil (P > 0.05). TW treatment significantly decreased soil MRR by 22.4% (P = 0.049). We also found T treatment decreased the temperature sensitivity coefficients of soil respiration (Q10). The results of our study suggested that compared to the single treatment (reduced water or diurnal <span class="hlt">warming</span>), the combined treatment (reduced water plus diurnal <span class="hlt">warming</span>) may have different effects on agroecosystem.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2009AGUFM.A13M..01W','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2009AGUFM.A13M..01W"><span><span class="hlt">Extreme</span> <span class="hlt">winter</span> cyclones and the extinction of a reindeer population (Invited)</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Walsh, J. E.; Klein, D. R.; Shulski, M.</p> <p>2009-12-01</p> <p>While strong cyclones are not unusual are not unusual in the subpolar North Pacific storm track, an exceptional series of storm events in early 1964 decimated the reindeer population of St. Matthew Island in the central Bering Sea. This case illustrates how severe <span class="hlt">winter</span> storms can lead to species extinction when overpopulated species are restricted to islands or fractured habitats where dispersal is not an option. The strongest storm occurred in early February when a surface low pressure system that originated over the <span class="hlt">warm</span> waters offshore of Japan tracked eastward from the <span class="hlt">warm</span> waters offshore of Japan. The intensification of the low then accelerated as the storm approached the Aleutians, where the central pressure decreased to 957 hPa, a pressure typical of Category 3 hurricanes. The track and intensity of the low were such that St. Matthew Island was in the storm’s northwest quadrant during the peak-intensity phase. The pressure difference between the intense cyclone and the Siberian high exceeded 100 hPa -- a pressure difference between these two locations that was the largest in the entire 60-year period of the NCEP reanalysis. This record pressure difference led to <span class="hlt">extremely</span> strong northerly winds that brought bitterly cold arctic air over St. Matthew Island, which was in the storm’s northwest quadrant. The wind chill temperature dropped to -50°C and remained colder than -40°C almost continuously for a full week. In this presentation, we examine the storm’s evolution and place the <span class="hlt">winter</span> of early 1964 into the context of the historical cyclone climatological of the North Pacific.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016JSR...107...23W','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016JSR...107...23W"><span>Windowpane flounder (Scophthalmus aquosus) and <span class="hlt">winter</span> flounder (Pseudopleuronectes americanus) responses to cold temperature <span class="hlt">extremes</span> in a Northwest Atlantic estuary</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Wilber, Dara H.; Clarke, Douglas G.; Alcoba, Catherine M.; Gallo, Jenine</p> <p>2016-01-01</p> <p>The effect of climate variability on flatfish includes not only the effects of <span class="hlt">warming</span> on sensitive life history stages, but also impacts from more frequent or unseasonal <span class="hlt">extreme</span> cold temperatures. Cold weather events can affect the overwintering capabilities of flatfish near their low temperature range limits. We examined the responses of two flatfish species, the thin-bodied windowpane (Scophthalmus aquosus) and cold-tolerant <span class="hlt">winter</span> flounder (Pseudopleuronectes americanus), to variable <span class="hlt">winter</span> temperatures in a Northwest Atlantic estuary using abundance and size data collected during a monitoring study, the Aquatic Biological Survey, conducted from 2002 to 2010. <span class="hlt">Winter</span> and spring abundances of small (50 to 120 mm total length) juvenile windowpane were positively correlated with adult densities (spawning stock) and fall temperatures (thermal conditions experienced during post-settlement development for the fall-spawned cohort) of the previous year. Windowpane abundances in the estuary were significantly reduced and the smallest size class was nearly absent after several consecutive years with cold (minimum temperatures < 1 °C) <span class="hlt">winters</span>. Interannual variation in <span class="hlt">winter</span> flounder abundances was unrelated to the severity of <span class="hlt">winter</span> temperatures. A Paulik diagram illustrates strong positive correlations between annual abundances of sequential <span class="hlt">winter</span> flounder life history stages (egg, larval, Age-1 juvenile, and adult male) within the estuary, reflecting residency within the estuary through their first year of life. Temperature variables representing conditions during <span class="hlt">winter</span> flounder larval and post-settlement development were not significant factors in multiple regression models exploring factors that affect juvenile abundances. Likewise, densities of predators known to consume <span class="hlt">winter</span> flounder eggs and/or post-settlement juveniles were not significantly related to interannual variation in <span class="hlt">winter</span> flounder juvenile abundances. Colder estuarine temperatures through the</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016EGUGA..1812056C','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016EGUGA..1812056C"><span>No snow for Christmas: the impact of the 2015 <span class="hlt">extreme</span> <span class="hlt">winter</span> on CO2 fluxes in European mountain grasslands</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Cremonese, Edoardo; Galvagno, Marta; Hammerle, Albin; Filippa, Gianluca; Wohlfahrt, Georg</p> <p>2016-04-01</p> <p>The increasing frequency in <span class="hlt">extreme</span> climate events is very likely to impact the Alps since this region is characterized by very sensitive ecosystems. Typical alpine ecosystems such as mountain grasslands, show a strong seasonality in carbon uptake and release mostly driven by the onset and the end of the snow season. <span class="hlt">Extreme</span> climate events, such as long <span class="hlt">warm</span> and/or dry periods, could change typical snow cover temporal pattern, thereby altering the duration of the period of CO2 uptake and release. In recent years many studies have analyzed the impact of delayed or anticipated snowmelt on alpine plant phenology, growth and carbon cycling. However, little is known on the effects of a delayed onset of the snow season. During 2015 the whole planet witnessed several record-breaking <span class="hlt">warm</span> spells which exceptionally <span class="hlt">warmed</span> the Alps where the temperature anomaly reached +4°C during both the autumn and <span class="hlt">winter</span> periods. In particular, the onset of the 2015 <span class="hlt">winter</span> in the Alps was marked by one of the most prolonged lack of snow in years. In this study, we investigate and discuss the impact of the altered temperature and precipitation pattern during the autumn/<span class="hlt">winter</span> 2015 on the net ecosystem CO2 exchange of mountain grasslands at high and low altitudes measured by means of the eddy covariance method. In particular we test the following hypotheses: (i) The presence of a snowpack impedes plant photosynthesis, while without a snowpack, plant net CO2 uptake may be possible even during wintertime provided temperatures are <span class="hlt">warm</span> enough. (ii) Below a snowpack, soil temperatures are around zero degrees Celsius, allowing for microbial activity resulting in intermediate soil respiration; without a snow cover soil temperatures may be either lower or higher than zero degrees Celsius, decreasing or increasing soil respiration. The magnitude and direction of the net ecosystem CO2 exchange of mountain grassland ecosystems is governed by the complex interplay of the factors addressed in</p> </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_3");'>3</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_4");'>4</a></li> <li class="active"><span>5</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_6");'>6</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_7");'>7</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div><!-- col-sm-12 --> </div><!-- row --> </div><!-- page_5 --> <div id="page_6" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_4");'>4</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_5");'>5</a></li> <li class="active"><span>6</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_7");'>7</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_8");'>8</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="101"> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/scitech/biblio/95962','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/scitech/biblio/95962"><span>Notes and Correspondence: The effect of enhanced greenhouse <span class="hlt">warming</span> on <span class="hlt">winter</span> cyclone frequencies and strengths</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech">SciTech Connect</a></p> <p>Lambert, S.J.</p> <p>1995-05-01</p> <p>The extratropical <span class="hlt">winter</span> cyclone climatologies for the Northern and Southern Hemispheres are presented for a control, or 1 x CO{sub 2} simulation, and an enhanced greenhouse <span class="hlt">warming</span>, or 2 x CO{sub 2} simulation, using the second generation Canadian Climate Centre general circulation model. When compared to the control climatology, the 2 x CO{sub 2} simulation exhibits a significant reduction in the total number of lows in both <span class="hlt">winter</span> hemispheres. Although the total number of cyclones decreases, the frequency of intense cyclones increases, with this behavior being more significant in the Northern Hemisphere. Examination of the storm tracks in both simulations indicates that there is little change in their geographical positions with global <span class="hlt">warming</span>. 10 refs., 8 figs., 4 tabs.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3538995','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3538995"><span>Is the change of <span class="hlt">winter</span> wheat yield under <span class="hlt">warming</span> caused by shortened reproductive period?</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Hou, Ruixing; Ouyang, Zhu; Li, Yunsheng; Wilson, Glenn V; Li, Hanxia</p> <p>2012-01-01</p> <p>Previous reports from laboratory-controlled experiments and models considered that a shorter reproductive period could be the main reason for wheat yield reduction in the warmer world. However, this conclusion needs to be proved carefully by field-scale experiments. In this study, a field-scale continuous open-<span class="hlt">warming</span> experiment was conducted to quantify the adjustment of <span class="hlt">winter</span> wheat growth and yield under conventional tillage (CT) and no-till (NT) systems in the North China Plain (NCP). Canopy temperatures were <span class="hlt">warmed</span> using infrared heaters between 1.0 and 1.6°C (daytime and nighttime, respectively) above the control. Wheat yields under CT were not significantly reduced over the two seasons (2010 and 2011), but yields under NT were 3.3% and 6.1% lower, respectively. The growing seasons for both CT and NT were shortened 6 days in 2010 and 11 days in 2011; however, the reproductive periods were maintained. The shortened days were due to a significantly shorter springtime re-greening stage followed by minimal changes in other phenological stages (jointing, flag completed, heading, anthesis, and grain-filling). The temporal advance by <span class="hlt">warming</span> resulted in lower growing-season mean air temperatures (MAT) for <span class="hlt">warmed</span> plots than the control from 0.23 to 4.22°C for the same subsequent phenological stages. <span class="hlt">Warming</span> increased the number of tillers m−2 and kernel weight, but tended to decrease the number of spikes m−2 in the two tillage systems. The heavier kernels offset the yield reduction from smaller number of spikes. <span class="hlt">Warming</span> increased the wheat aboveground biomass from 10% to 20% suggesting the potential to sequester more CO2. This study suggests that <span class="hlt">winter</span> wheat might adjust its growth (shortened vegetative period to maintain reproductive period) to partly compensate for the negative effects from global <span class="hlt">warming</span> in this temperate irrigated cropland. PMID:23301167</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016EGUGA..1812702W','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016EGUGA..1812702W"><span>Large Scale Drivers for the <span class="hlt">Extreme</span> Storm Season over the North Atlantic and the UK in <span class="hlt">Winter</span> 2013-14</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Wild, Simon; Befort, Daniel J.; Leckebusch, Gregor C.</p> <p>2016-04-01</p> <p>The British Isles experienced exceptional stormy and rainy weather conditions in <span class="hlt">winter</span> 2013-2014 while large parts of central North America recorded near record minimum surface temperatures values. Potential drivers for these cold conditions include increasingly <span class="hlt">warm</span> surface waters of the tropical west Pacific. It has been suggested these increasing sea surface temperatures could also be the cause for <span class="hlt">extreme</span> weather over the Europe, particularly the UK. Testing this hypothesis, we investigate mechanisms linking the tropical west Pacific and European wind storm activity. We will firstly analyse anomaly patterns along such a potential link in <span class="hlt">winter</span> 2013-14. Secondly, we will investigate whether these identified anomaly patterns show a strong interannual relationship in the recent past. Our results, using primarily ERA-Interim Reanalysis from 1979 to 2014, show an absolute maximum of wind storm frequency over the northeast Atlantic and the British Isles in <span class="hlt">winter</span> 2013-14. We also find absolute minimum surface temperatures in central North America and increased convective activity over the tropical west Pacific in the same season. The <span class="hlt">winter</span> 2013-14 was additionally characterized by anomalous <span class="hlt">warm</span> sea surface temperatures over the subtropical northwest Atlantic. Although the interannual variability of wind storms in the northeast Atlantic and surface temperatures in North America are significantly anti-correlated, we cannot directly relate wind storm frequency with tropical west Pacific anomalies. We thus conclude that the conditions over the Pacific in <span class="hlt">winter</span> 2013-14 were favourable but not sufficient to explain the record number of wind storms in this season. Instead, we suggest that <span class="hlt">warm</span> north Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies in combination with cold surface temperatures over North America played a more important role for generating higher wind storm counts over the northeast Atlantic and the UK.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21455177','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21455177"><span><span class="hlt">Winter</span> cold of eastern continental boundaries induced by <span class="hlt">warm</span> ocean waters.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Kaspi, Yohai; Schneider, Tapio</p> <p>2011-03-31</p> <p>In <span class="hlt">winter</span>, northeastern North America and northeastern Asia are both colder than other regions at similar latitudes. This has been attributed to the effects of stationary weather systems set by elevated terrain (orography), and to a lack of maritime influences from the prevailing westerly winds. However, the differences in extent and orography between the two continents suggest that further mechanisms are involved. Here we show that this anomalous <span class="hlt">winter</span> cold can result in part from westward radiation of large-scale atmospheric waves--nearly stationary Rossby waves--generated by heating of the atmosphere over <span class="hlt">warm</span> ocean waters. We demonstrate this mechanism using simulations with an idealized general circulation model, with which we show that the extent of the cold region is controlled by properties of Rossby waves, such as their group velocity and its dependence on the planetary rotation rate. Our results show that <span class="hlt">warm</span> ocean waters contribute to the contrast in mid-latitude <span class="hlt">winter</span> temperatures between eastern and western continental boundaries not only by <span class="hlt">warming</span> western boundaries, but also by cooling eastern boundaries.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012GeoRL..39.4704R','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012GeoRL..39.4704R"><span>Long tails in regional surface temperature probability distributions with implications for <span class="hlt">extremes</span> under global <span class="hlt">warming</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Ruff, Tyler W.; Neelin, J. David</p> <p>2012-02-01</p> <p>Prior work has shown that probability distributions of column water vapor and several passive tropospheric chemical tracers exhibit longer-than-Gaussian (approximately exponential) tails. The tracer-advection prototypes explaining the formation of these long-tailed distributions motivate exploration of observed surface temperature distributions for non-Gaussian tails. Stations with long records in various climate regimes in National Climatic Data Center Global Surface Summary of Day observations are used to examine tail characteristics for daily average, maximum and minimum surface temperature probability distributions. Each is examined for departures from a Gaussian fit to the core (here approximated as the portion of the distribution exceeding 30% of the maximum). While the core conforms to Gaussian for most distributions, roughly half the cases exhibit non-Gaussian tails in both <span class="hlt">winter</span> and summer seasons. Most of these are asymmetric, with a long, roughly exponential, tail on only one side. The shape of the tail has substantial implications for potential changes in <span class="hlt">extreme</span> event occurrences under global <span class="hlt">warming</span>. Here the change in the probability of exceeding a given threshold temperature is quantified in the simplest case of a shift in the present-day observed distribution. Surface temperature distributions with long tails have a much smaller change in threshold exceedances (smaller increases for high-side and smaller decreases for low-side exceedances relative to exceedances in current climate) under a given <span class="hlt">warming</span> than do near-Gaussian distributions. This implies that models used to estimate changes in <span class="hlt">extreme</span> event occurrences due to global <span class="hlt">warming</span> should be verified regionally for accuracy of simulations of probability distribution tails.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017GeoRL..44..374G','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017GeoRL..44..374G"><span>Stratospheric variability contributed to and sustained the recent hiatus in Eurasian <span class="hlt">winter</span> <span class="hlt">warming</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Garfinkel, Chaim I.; Son, Seok-Woo; Song, Kanghyun; Aquila, Valentina; Oman, Luke D.</p> <p>2017-01-01</p> <p>The recent hiatus in global-mean surface temperature <span class="hlt">warming</span> was characterized by a Eurasian <span class="hlt">winter</span> cooling trend, and the cause(s) for this cooling is unclear. Here we show that the observed hiatus in Eurasian <span class="hlt">warming</span> was associated with a recent trend toward weakened stratospheric polar vortices. Specifically, by calculating the change in Eurasian surface air temperature associated with a given vortex weakening, we demonstrate that the recent trend toward weakened polar vortices reduced the anticipated Eurasian <span class="hlt">warming</span> due to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. Those model integrations whose stratospheric vortex evolution most closely matches that in reanalysis data also simulate a hiatus. While it is unclear whether the recent weakening of the midwinter stratospheric polar vortex was forced, a properly configured model can simulate substantial deviations of the polar vortex on decadal timescales and hence such hiatus events, implying that similar hiatus events may recur even as greenhouse gas concentrations rise.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4439064','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4439064"><span>The Trends in Excess Mortality in <span class="hlt">Winter</span> vs. Summer in a Sub-Tropical City and Its Association with <span class="hlt">Extreme</span> Climate Conditions</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Chau, Pui Hing; Woo, Jean</p> <p>2015-01-01</p> <p>While there is literature on excess <span class="hlt">winter</span> mortality, there are few studies examining the evolution of its trend which may be changing in parallel with global <span class="hlt">warming</span>. This study aimed to examine the trend in the excess mortality in <span class="hlt">winter</span> as compared to summer among the older population in a sub-tropical city and to explore its association with <span class="hlt">extreme</span> weather. We used a retrospective study based on the registered deaths among the older population in Hong Kong during 1976-2010. An Excess Mortality for <span class="hlt">Winter</span> versus Summer (EMWS) Index was used to quantify the excess number of deaths in <span class="hlt">winter</span> compared to summer. Multiple linear regressions were used to analyze the trends and its association with <span class="hlt">extreme</span> weather. Overall, the EMWS Index for ischemic heart disease, cerebrovascular diseases, chronic lower respiratory diseases, pneumonia, and other causes were 43.0%, 34.2%, 42.7%, 23.4% and 17.6%, respectively. Significant decline was observed in the EMWS Index for chronic lower respiratory diseases and other causes. The trend in the index for cerebrovascular diseases depended on the age group, with older groups showing a decline but younger groups not showing any trend. Meteorological variables, in terms of <span class="hlt">extreme</span> weather, were associated with the trends in the EMWS Index. We concluded that shrinking excess <span class="hlt">winter</span> mortality from cerebrovascular diseases and chronic lower respiratory diseases was found in a sub-tropical city. These trends were associated with <span class="hlt">extreme</span> weather, which coincided with global <span class="hlt">warming</span>. PMID:25993635</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012GeoRL..3917707S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012GeoRL..3917707S"><span>How much do precipitation <span class="hlt">extremes</span> change in a <span class="hlt">warming</span> climate?</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Shiu, Chein-Jung; Liu, Shaw Chen; Fu, Congbin; Dai, Aiguo; Sun, Ying</p> <p>2012-09-01</p> <p>Daily data from reanalyses of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) are analyzed to study changes in precipitation intensity with respect to global mean temperature. The results are in good agreement with those derived from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) data by Liu et al. (2009), providing an independent verification for large changes in the precipitation <span class="hlt">extremes</span>: about 100% increase for the annual top 10% heavy precipitation and about 20% decrease for the light and moderate precipitation for one degree <span class="hlt">warming</span> in the global temperature. These changes can substantially increase the risk of floods as well as droughts, thus severely affecting the global ecosystems. Atmospheric models used in the reanalysis mode, with the benefit of observed wind and moisture fields, appear to be capable of realistically simulating the change of precipitation intensity with global temperature. In comparison, coupled climate models are capable of simulating the shape of the change in precipitation intensity, but underestimate the magnitude of the change by about one order of magnitude. The most likely reason of the underestimation is that the typical spatial resolution of climate models is too coarse to resolve atmospheric convection.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=5469006','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=5469006"><span><span class="hlt">Winter</span> Night-<span class="hlt">Warming</span> Improves Post-anthesis Physiological Activities and Sink Strength in Relation to Grain Filling in <span class="hlt">Winter</span> Wheat (Triticum aestivum L.)</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Fan, Yonghui; Tian, Zhongwei; Yan, Yanyan; Hu, Chenxi; Abid, Muhammad; Jiang, Dong; Ma, Chuanxi; Huang, Zhenglai; Dai, Tingbo</p> <p>2017-01-01</p> <p>The diurnal and seasonal temperature rising patterns “asymmetric <span class="hlt">warming</span>,” plays an important role in crop distribution and productivity. Asymmetric <span class="hlt">warming</span> during the early growth periods of <span class="hlt">winter</span> wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) profoundly affects vegetative growth and post-anthesis grain productivity, but the underlying physiological mechanism is still unclear. We conducted field experiments from 2012 to 2014 using two wheat cultivars, namely, Yangmai-13 (vernal type) and Yannong-19 (semi-<span class="hlt">winter</span> type), to investigate the influences of night-<span class="hlt">warming</span> during the <span class="hlt">winter</span> (<span class="hlt">warming</span> by 1.56–1.67°C from tillering to jointing) or during the spring (<span class="hlt">warming</span> by 1.78–1.92°C from jointing to booting) on post-anthesis physiological activities and grain-filling processes. Both night-<span class="hlt">warming</span> treatments enhanced the source activity by increasing flag leaf area, chlorophyll content, and photosynthetic capability in both cultivars compared with those of the control. The night-<span class="hlt">warming</span> treatments caused an increase in the antioxidant activities of superoxide dismutase (SOD), peroxidase, and catalase (CAT) in the flag leaves of both cultivars, while ROS contents such as superoxide anion radical (O2•−) and hydrogen peroxide (H2O2) decreased. Moreover, the expression levels of Rubisco activase B (RcaB), major chlorophyll a/b-binding protein (Cab), chloroplast Cu/Zn superoxide dismutase (Cu/Zn-SOD), mitochondrial manganese superoxide dismutase (Mn-SOD), and CAT genes were upregulated at anthesis and were associated with higher photosynthetic capacity and antioxidant activities. Furthermore, night-<span class="hlt">warming</span> improved sink activities by increasing the concentrations of grain indole-3-acetic acid and cytokinins as well as the sucrose synthase activity for both cultivars. <span class="hlt">Winter</span> night-<span class="hlt">warming</span> showed greater potential for improving source strength and grain filling, with consistent performance in both cultivars compared with that of spring night-<span class="hlt">warming</span>. We concluded form these</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26324919','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26324919"><span>Low clouds suppress Arctic air formation and amplify high-latitude continental <span class="hlt">winter</span> <span class="hlt">warming</span>.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Cronin, Timothy W; Tziperman, Eli</p> <p>2015-09-15</p> <p>High-latitude continents have <span class="hlt">warmed</span> much more rapidly in recent decades than the rest of the globe, especially in <span class="hlt">winter</span>, and the maintenance of <span class="hlt">warm</span>, frost-free conditions in continental interiors in <span class="hlt">winter</span> has been a long-standing problem of past equable climates. We use an idealized single-column atmospheric model across a range of conditions to study the polar night process of air mass transformation from high-latitude maritime air, with a prescribed initial temperature profile, to much colder high-latitude continental air. We find that a low-cloud feedback--consisting of a robust increase in the duration of optically thick liquid clouds with <span class="hlt">warming</span> of the initial state--slows radiative cooling of the surface and amplifies continental <span class="hlt">warming</span>. This low-cloud feedback increases the continental surface air temperature by roughly two degrees for each degree increase of the initial maritime surface air temperature, effectively suppressing Arctic air formation. The time it takes for the surface air temperature to drop below freezing increases nonlinearly to ∼ 10 d for initial maritime surface air temperatures of 20 °C. These results, supplemented by an analysis of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 climate model runs that shows large increases in cloud water path and surface cloud longwave forcing in warmer climates, suggest that the "lapse rate feedback" in simulations of anthropogenic climate change may be related to the influence of low clouds on the stratification of the lower troposphere. The results also indicate that optically thick stratus cloud decks could help to maintain frost-free <span class="hlt">winter</span> continental interiors in equable climates.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4577187','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4577187"><span>Low clouds suppress Arctic air formation and amplify high-latitude continental <span class="hlt">winter</span> <span class="hlt">warming</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Cronin, Timothy W.; Tziperman, Eli</p> <p>2015-01-01</p> <p>High-latitude continents have <span class="hlt">warmed</span> much more rapidly in recent decades than the rest of the globe, especially in <span class="hlt">winter</span>, and the maintenance of <span class="hlt">warm</span>, frost-free conditions in continental interiors in <span class="hlt">winter</span> has been a long-standing problem of past equable climates. We use an idealized single-column atmospheric model across a range of conditions to study the polar night process of air mass transformation from high-latitude maritime air, with a prescribed initial temperature profile, to much colder high-latitude continental air. We find that a low-cloud feedback—consisting of a robust increase in the duration of optically thick liquid clouds with <span class="hlt">warming</span> of the initial state—slows radiative cooling of the surface and amplifies continental <span class="hlt">warming</span>. This low-cloud feedback increases the continental surface air temperature by roughly two degrees for each degree increase of the initial maritime surface air temperature, effectively suppressing Arctic air formation. The time it takes for the surface air temperature to drop below freezing increases nonlinearly to ∼10 d for initial maritime surface air temperatures of 20 °C. These results, supplemented by an analysis of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 climate model runs that shows large increases in cloud water path and surface cloud longwave forcing in warmer climates, suggest that the “lapse rate feedback” in simulations of anthropogenic climate change may be related to the influence of low clouds on the stratification of the lower troposphere. The results also indicate that optically thick stratus cloud decks could help to maintain frost-free <span class="hlt">winter</span> continental interiors in equable climates. PMID:26324919</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70028302','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70028302"><span>Nutritional condition of Pacific Black Brant <span class="hlt">wintering</span> at the <span class="hlt">extremes</span> of their range</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a></p> <p>Mason, D.D.; Barboza, P.S.; Ward, D.H.</p> <p>2006-01-01</p> <p>Endogenous stores of energy allow birds to survive periods of severe weather and food shortage during <span class="hlt">winter</span>. We documented changes in lipid, protein, moisture, and ash in body tissues of adult female Pacific Black Brant (Branta bernicla nigricans) and modeled the energetic costs of <span class="hlt">wintering</span>. Birds were collected at the <span class="hlt">extremes</span> of their <span class="hlt">winter</span> range, in Alaska and Baja California, Mexico. Body lipids decreased over <span class="hlt">winter</span> for birds in Alaska but increased for those in Baja California. Conversely, body protein increased over <span class="hlt">winter</span> for Brant in Alaska and remained stable for birds in Baja California. Lipid stores likely fuel migration for Brant <span class="hlt">wintering</span> in Baja California and ensure <span class="hlt">winter</span> survival for those in Alaska. Increases in body protein may support earlier reproduction for Brant in Alaska. Predicted energy demands were similar between sites during late <span class="hlt">winter</span> but avenues of expenditure were different. Birds in Baja California spent more energy on lipid synthesis while those in Alaska incurred higher thermoregulatory costs. Estimated daily intake rates of eelgrass were similar between sites in early <span class="hlt">winter</span>; however, feeding time was more constrained in Alaska because of high tides and short photoperiods. Despite differences in energetic costs and foraging time, Brant <span class="hlt">wintering</span> at both sites appeared to be in good condition. We suggest that <span class="hlt">wintering</span> in Alaska may be more advantageous than long-distance migration if <span class="hlt">winter</span> survival is similar between sites and constraints on foraging time do not impair body condition. ?? The Cooper Ornithological Society 2006.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016GeoRL..4310920Z','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016GeoRL..4310920Z"><span><span class="hlt">Winter</span> <span class="hlt">warming</span> and summer monsoon reduction after volcanic eruptions in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) simulations</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Zambri, Brian; Robock, Alan</p> <p>2016-10-01</p> <p>Though previous studies have shown that state-of-the-art climate models are rather imperfect in their simulations of the climate response to large volcanic eruptions, the results depend on how the analyses were done. Observations show that all recent large tropical eruptions were followed by <span class="hlt">winter</span> <span class="hlt">warming</span> in the first Northern Hemisphere (NH) <span class="hlt">winter</span> after the eruption, with little such response in the second <span class="hlt">winter</span>, yet a number of the evaluations have combined the first and second <span class="hlt">winters</span>. We have looked at just the first <span class="hlt">winter</span> after large eruptions since 1850 in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 historical simulations and find that most models do produce a <span class="hlt">winter</span> <span class="hlt">warming</span> signal, with warmer temperatures over NH continents and a stronger polar vortex in the lower stratosphere. We also examined NH summer precipitation responses in the first year after these large volcanic eruptions and find clear reductions of summer monsoon rainfall.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016EGUGA..18.8996A','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016EGUGA..18.8996A"><span>Influence of atmospheric energy transport on amplification of <span class="hlt">winter</span> <span class="hlt">warming</span> in the Arctic</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Alekseev, Genrikh; Kuzmina, Svetlana; Urazgildeeva, Aleksandra; Bobylev, Leonid</p> <p>2016-04-01</p> <p>The study was performed on base reanalysis ERA/Interim to discover the link between amplified <span class="hlt">warming</span> in the high Arctic and the atmospheric transport of heat and water vapor through the 70 ° N. The partitioning transports across the Atlantic and Pacific "gates" is established the link between variations of atmospheric flux through the "gates" and a larger part of the variability of the average surface air temperature, water vapor content and its trends in the <span class="hlt">winter</span> 1980-2014. Influence of <span class="hlt">winter</span> (December-February) atmospheric transport across the Atlantic "gate" at the 1000 hPa on variability of average for January-February surface air temperature to north 70° N is estimated correlation coefficient 0.75 and contribution to the temperature trend 40%. These results for the first time denote the leading role of increasing atmospheric transport on the amplification of <span class="hlt">winter</span> <span class="hlt">warming</span> in the high Arctic. The investigation is supported with RFBR project 15-05-03512.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28951613','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28951613"><span>The impact of long-term oceanic <span class="hlt">warming</span> on the Antarctic Oscillation in austral <span class="hlt">winter</span>.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Hao, Xin; He, Shengping; Wang, Huijun; Han, Tingting</p> <p>2017-09-26</p> <p>Increasing greenhouse gas concentration and ozone depletion are generally considered two important factors that affect the variability of the Antarctic Oscillation (AAO). Here, we find that the first leading mode of sea surface temperature (SST) variability (rotated empirical orthogonal functions) shows a long-term upward trend from 1901 to 2004 and is closely related to the AAO index that is obtained using the observationally constrained reanalysis data. Further, regressions of the sea level pressure and the 500-hPa geopotential height anomalies, against the principle component associated with the long-term SST anomalies, display a seesaw behavior between the middle and high latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere in austral <span class="hlt">winter</span>, which is similar to the high polarity of the AAO. The circulation responses to the long-term oceanic <span class="hlt">warming</span> in three numerical models are consistent with the observed results. This finding suggests that the long-term oceanic <span class="hlt">warming</span> is partly responsible for the upward trend of the AAO in austral <span class="hlt">winter</span>. The thermal wind response to the oceanic <span class="hlt">warming</span> in South Indian and South Atlantic Ocean may be a possible mechanism for this process.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012ERL.....7a4028D','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012ERL.....7a4028D"><span>Observed decreases in the Canadian outdoor skating season due to recent <span class="hlt">winter</span> <span class="hlt">warming</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Damyanov, Nikolay N.; Damon Matthews, H.; Mysak, Lawrence A.</p> <p>2012-03-01</p> <p>Global <span class="hlt">warming</span> has the potential to negatively affect one of Canada’s primary sources of <span class="hlt">winter</span> recreation: hockey and ice skating on outdoor rinks. Observed changes in <span class="hlt">winter</span> temperatures in Canada suggest changes in the meteorological conditions required to support the creation and maintenance of outdoor skating rinks; while there have been observed increases in the ice-free period of several natural water bodies, there has been no study of potential trends in the duration of the season supporting the construction of outdoor skating rinks. Here we show that the outdoor skating season (OSS) in Canada has significantly shortened in many regions of the country as a result of changing climate conditions. We first established a meteorological criterion for the beginning, and a proxy for the length of the OSS. We extracted this information from daily maximum temperature observations from 1951 to 2005, and tested it for significant changes over time due to global <span class="hlt">warming</span> as well as due to changes in patterns of large-scale natural climate variability. We found that many locations have seen a statistically significant decrease in the OSS length, particularly in Southwest and Central Canada. This suggests that future global <span class="hlt">warming</span> has the potential to significantly compromise the viability of outdoor skating in Canada.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20020080995','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20020080995"><span>North Atlantic Surface Winds Examined as the Source of <span class="hlt">Warm</span> Advection into Europe in <span class="hlt">Winter</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Otterman, J.; Angell, J. K.; Ardizzone, J.; Atlas, Robert; Schubert, S.; Starr, D.; Wu, M.-L.</p> <p>2002-01-01</p> <p>When from the southwest, North Atlantic ocean surface winds are known to bring <span class="hlt">warm</span> and moist airmasses into central Europe in <span class="hlt">winter</span>. By tracing backward trajectories from western Europe, we establish that these airmasses originate in the southwestern North Atlantic, in the very <span class="hlt">warm</span> regions of the Gulf Stream. Over the eastern North Atlantic, Lt the gateway to Europe, the ocean-surface winds changed directions in the second half of the XXth century, those from the northwest and from the southeast becoming so infrequent, that the direction from the southwest became even more dominant. For the January-to-March period, the strength of south-westerlies in this region, as well as in the source region, shows in the years 1948-1995 a significant increase, above 0.2 m/sec/ decade. Based on the sensitivity of the surface temperature in Europe, slightly more than 1 C for a 1m/sec increase in the southwesterly wind, found in the previous studies, the trend in the <span class="hlt">warm</span> advection accounts for a large part of the <span class="hlt">warming</span> in Europe established for this period in several reports. However, for the most recent years, 1996-2001, the positive trend in the southwesterly advection appears to be is broken, which is consistent with unseasonally cold events reported in Europe in those <span class="hlt">winters</span>. This study had, some bearing on evaluating the respective roles of the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Greenhouse Gas Global <span class="hlt">warming</span>, GGG, in the strong <span class="hlt">winter</span> <span class="hlt">warming</span> observed for about half a century over the northern-latitude continents. Changes in the ocean-surface temperatures induced by GGG may have produced the dominant southwesterly direction of the North Atlantic winds. However, this implies a monotonically (apart from inherent interannual variability) increasing advection, and if the break in the trend which we observe after 1995 persists, this mechanism is counter-indicated. The 1948-1995 trend in the south-westerlies could then be considered to a large degree attributable to the</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=5351983','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=5351983"><span>Arctic sea ice, Eurasia snow, and <span class="hlt">extreme</span> <span class="hlt">winter</span> haze in China</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Zou, Yufei; Wang, Yuhang; Zhang, Yuzhong; Koo, Ja-Ho</p> <p>2017-01-01</p> <p>The East China Plains (ECP) region experienced the worst haze pollution on record for January in 2013. We show that the unprecedented haze event is due to the <span class="hlt">extremely</span> poor ventilation conditions, which had not been seen in the preceding three decades. Statistical analysis suggests that the <span class="hlt">extremely</span> poor ventilation conditions are linked to Arctic sea ice loss in the preceding autumn and extensive boreal snowfall in the earlier <span class="hlt">winter</span>. We identify the regional circulation mode that leads to <span class="hlt">extremely</span> poor ventilation over the ECP region. Climate model simulations indicate that boreal cryospheric forcing enhances the regional circulation mode of poor ventilation in the ECP region and provides conducive conditions for <span class="hlt">extreme</span> haze such as that of 2013. Consequently, <span class="hlt">extreme</span> haze events in <span class="hlt">winter</span> will likely occur at a higher frequency in China as a result of the changing boreal cryosphere, posing difficult challenges for <span class="hlt">winter</span> haze mitigation but providing a strong incentive for greenhouse gas emission reduction. PMID:28345056</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28345056','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28345056"><span>Arctic sea ice, Eurasia snow, and <span class="hlt">extreme</span> <span class="hlt">winter</span> haze in China.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Zou, Yufei; Wang, Yuhang; Zhang, Yuzhong; Koo, Ja-Ho</p> <p>2017-03-01</p> <p>The East China Plains (ECP) region experienced the worst haze pollution on record for January in 2013. We show that the unprecedented haze event is due to the <span class="hlt">extremely</span> poor ventilation conditions, which had not been seen in the preceding three decades. Statistical analysis suggests that the <span class="hlt">extremely</span> poor ventilation conditions are linked to Arctic sea ice loss in the preceding autumn and extensive boreal snowfall in the earlier <span class="hlt">winter</span>. We identify the regional circulation mode that leads to <span class="hlt">extremely</span> poor ventilation over the ECP region. Climate model simulations indicate that boreal cryospheric forcing enhances the regional circulation mode of poor ventilation in the ECP region and provides conducive conditions for <span class="hlt">extreme</span> haze such as that of 2013. Consequently, <span class="hlt">extreme</span> haze events in <span class="hlt">winter</span> will likely occur at a higher frequency in China as a result of the changing boreal cryosphere, posing difficult challenges for <span class="hlt">winter</span> haze mitigation but providing a strong incentive for greenhouse gas emission reduction.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015ERL....10b4012E','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015ERL....10b4012E"><span>Intensity of heat stress in <span class="hlt">winter</span> wheat—phenology compensates for the adverse effect of global <span class="hlt">warming</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Eyshi Rezaei, Ehsan; Siebert, Stefan; Ewert, Frank</p> <p>2015-02-01</p> <p>Higher temperatures during the growing season are likely to reduce crop yields with implications for crop production and food security. The negative impact of heat stress has also been predicted to increase even further for cereals such as wheat under climate change. Previous empirical modeling studies have focused on the magnitude and frequency of <span class="hlt">extreme</span> events during the growth period but did not consider the effect of higher temperature on crop phenology. Based on an extensive set of climate and phenology observations for Germany and period 1951-2009, interpolated to 1 × 1 km resolution and provided as supplementary data to this article (available at stacks.iop.org/ERL/10/024012/mmedia), we demonstrate a strong relationship between the mean temperature in spring and the day of heading (DOH) of <span class="hlt">winter</span> wheat. We show that the cooling effect due to the 14 days earlier DOH almost fully compensates for the adverse effect of global <span class="hlt">warming</span> on frequency and magnitude of crop heat stress. Earlier heading caused by the warmer spring period can prevent exposure to <span class="hlt">extreme</span> heat events around anthesis, which is the most sensitive growth stage to heat stress. Consequently, the intensity of heat stress around anthesis in <span class="hlt">winter</span> crops cultivated in Germany may not increase under climate change even if the number and duration of <span class="hlt">extreme</span> heat waves increase. However, this does not mean that global warning would not harm crop production because of other impacts, e.g. shortening of the grain filling period. Based on the trends for the last 34 years in Germany, heat stress (stress thermal time) around anthesis would be 59% higher in year 2009 if the effect of high temperatures on accelerating wheat phenology were ignored. We conclude that climate impact assessments need to consider both the effect of high temperature on grain set at anthesis but also on crop phenology.</p> </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_4");'>4</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_5");'>5</a></li> <li class="active"><span>6</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_7");'>7</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_8");'>8</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div><!-- col-sm-12 --> </div><!-- row --> </div><!-- page_6 --> <div id="page_7" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_5");'>5</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_6");'>6</a></li> <li class="active"><span>7</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_8");'>8</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_9");'>9</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="121"> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017APJAS..53..287U','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017APJAS..53..287U"><span>South-coast cyclone in Japan during El Niño-caused <span class="hlt">warm</span> <span class="hlt">winters</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Ueda, Hiroaki; Amagai, Yuusuke; Hayasaki, Masamitsu</p> <p>2017-05-01</p> <p>La Niña conditions during boreal <span class="hlt">winter</span> sometimes brings excessive snowfall in Japan, especially on the East Sea/Sea of Japan coastal and mountain areas through intensified northwesterly cold winds caused by La-Niña related atmospheric teleconnection. Meanwhile, snowfall events also increase in the Pacific coast area of Japan during the El Niño state due to extratropical cyclones passing along the south coast of Japan (hereafter referred to as South-coast cyclone). In the present study, we investigated year-to-year snowfall/rainfall variations based on meteorological station data and cyclone tracks identified by using the Japanese 55-year Reanalysis. The result clearly indicates increase of the South-coast cyclone during El Niño-developing <span class="hlt">winters</span>, which is consistent with excessive snow-fall in the northern part of the Pacific coast. Strong subtropical jet hampers cyclogenesis due to less vertical interaction through the trapping of upper-level eddies. During El Niño-developing <span class="hlt">winters</span>, the subtropical jet is weakened over East Asia, indicating dynamic linkage to increased cyclone frequency. In addition to this, both the deepening of the upper-tropospheric trough over East Asia and anomalous low-tropospheric northwest anticyclones extending from the Philippines toward Japan are also consistent with the enhancement of cyclogenesis over the East China Sea as well as <span class="hlt">warm</span> <span class="hlt">winter</span> in Japan.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017ChJOL.tmp...66Z','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017ChJOL.tmp...66Z"><span>A numerical study of the South China Sea <span class="hlt">Warm</span> Current during <span class="hlt">winter</span> monsoon relaxation</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Zhang, Cong; Ding, Yang; Bao, Xianwen; Bi, Congcong; Li, Ruixiang; Zhang, Cunjie; Shen, Biao; Wan, Kai</p> <p>2017-06-01</p> <p>Using a Finite-Volume Community Ocean Model, we investigated the dynamic mechanism of the South China Sea <span class="hlt">Warm</span> Current (SCSWC) in the northern South China Sea (NSCS) during <span class="hlt">winter</span> monsoon relaxation. The model reproduces the mean surface circulation of the NSCS during <span class="hlt">winter</span>, while model-simulated subtidal currents generally capture its current pattern. The model shows that the current over the continental shelf is generally southwestward, under a strong <span class="hlt">winter</span> monsoon condition, but a northeastward counter-wind current usually develops between 50- and 100-m isobaths, when the monsoon relaxes. Model experiments, focusing on the wind relaxation process, show that sea level is elevated in the northwestern South China Sea (SCS), related to the persistent northeasterly monsoon. Following wind relaxation, a high sea level band builds up along the mid-shelf, and a northeastward current develops, having an obvious vertical barotropic structure. Momentum balance analysis indicates that an along-shelf pressure gradient provides the initial driving force for the SCSWC during the first few days following wind relaxation. The SCSWC subsequently reaches a steady quasi-geostrophic balance in the cross-shelf direction, mainly linked to sea level adjustment over the shelf. Lagrangian particle tracking experiments show that both the southwestward coastal current and slope current contribute to the northeastward movement of the SCSWC during <span class="hlt">winter</span> monsoon relaxation.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013BGeo...10.5545D','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013BGeo...10.5545D"><span>Short-term cropland responses to temperature <span class="hlt">extreme</span> events during late <span class="hlt">winter</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>De Simon, G.; Alberti, G.; Delle Vedove, G.; Peressotti, A.; Zaldei, A.; Miglietta, F.</p> <p>2013-08-01</p> <p>In recent years, several studies have focused on terrestrial ecosystem response to <span class="hlt">extreme</span> events. Most of this research has been conducted in natural ecosystems, but few have considered agroecosystems. In this study, we investigated the impact of a manipulated warmer or cooler late <span class="hlt">winter</span>/early spring on the carbon budget and final harvest of a soybean crop (Glycine max (L.) Merr.). Soil temperature was altered by manipulating soil albedo by covering the soil surface with a layer of inert silica gravel. We tested three treatments - cooling (Co), <span class="hlt">warming</span> (W), mix (M) - and control (C). An automated system continuously measured soil heterotrophic respiration (Rh), soil temperature profiles, and soil water content across the entire year in each plot. Phenological phases were periodically assessed and final harvest was measured in each plot. Results showed that treatments had only a transient effect on daily Rh rates, which did not result in a total annual carbon budget significantly different from control, even though cooling showed a significant reduction in final harvest. We also observed anticipation in emergence in both W and M treatments and a delay in emergence for Co. Moreover, plant density and growth increased in W and M and decreased in Co. In conclusion, from the results of our experiment we can assert that an increase in the frequency of both heat and cold waves is unlikely to have large effects on the overall annual carbon balance of irrigated croplands.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013BGD....10.6493D','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013BGD....10.6493D"><span>Short-term cropland responses to temperature <span class="hlt">extreme</span> events during late <span class="hlt">winter</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>De Simon, G.; Alberti, G.; Delle Vedove, G.; Peressotti, A.; Zaldei, A.; Miglietta, F.</p> <p>2013-04-01</p> <p>In recent years, several studies have focused on terrestrial ecosystem response to <span class="hlt">extreme</span> events. Most of this research has been conducted in natural ecosystems, but few have considered agro-ecosystems. In this study, we investigated the impact of a manipulated warmer or cooler late <span class="hlt">winter</span>-early spring on the carbon budget and final harvest of a soybean crop (Glycine max (L.) Merr.). Soil temperature was altered by manipulating soil albedo by covering the soil surface with a layer of inert silica gravel. We tested three treatments: cooling (Co), <span class="hlt">warming</span> (W), mix (M) and control (C). An automated system continuously measured soil heterotrophic respiration (Rh), soil temperature profiles, and soil water content across the entire year in each plot. Phenological phases were periodically assessed and final harvest was measured in each plot. Results showed that treatments had only a transient effect on daily Rh rates which did not result in a total annual carbon budget significantly different from control, even though cooling showed a significant reduction in final harvest. We also observed anticipation in seed germination in both W and M treatments and a delay in germination for Co. Moreover, plant density and growth increased in W and M and decreased in Co.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27174985','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27174985"><span>Body shrinkage due to Arctic <span class="hlt">warming</span> reduces red knot fitness in tropical <span class="hlt">wintering</span> range.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>van Gils, Jan A; Lisovski, Simeon; Lok, Tamar; Meissner, Włodzimierz; Ożarowska, Agnieszka; de Fouw, Jimmy; Rakhimberdiev, Eldar; Soloviev, Mikhail Y; Piersma, Theunis; Klaassen, Marcel</p> <p>2016-05-13</p> <p>Reductions in body size are increasingly being identified as a response to climate <span class="hlt">warming</span>. Here we present evidence for a case of such body shrinkage, potentially due to malnutrition in early life. We show that an avian long-distance migrant (red knot, Calidris canutus canutus), which is experiencing globally unrivaled <span class="hlt">warming</span> rates at its high-Arctic breeding grounds, produces smaller offspring with shorter bills during summers with early snowmelt. This has consequences half a world away at their tropical <span class="hlt">wintering</span> grounds, where shorter-billed individuals have reduced survival rates. This is associated with these molluscivores eating fewer deeply buried bivalve prey and more shallowly buried seagrass rhizomes. We suggest that seasonal migrants can experience reduced fitness at one end of their range as a result of a changing climate at the other end. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27278823','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27278823"><span>Potentially <span class="hlt">Extreme</span> Population Displacement and Concentration in the Tropics Under Non-<span class="hlt">Extreme</span> <span class="hlt">Warming</span>.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Hsiang, Solomon M; Sobel, Adam H</p> <p>2016-06-09</p> <p>Evidence increasingly suggests that as climate <span class="hlt">warms</span>, some plant, animal, and human populations may move to preserve their environmental temperature. The distances they must travel to do this depends on how much cooler nearby surfaces temperatures are. Because large-scale atmospheric dynamics constrain surface temperatures to be nearly uniform near the equator, these displacements can grow to <span class="hlt">extreme</span> distances in the tropics, even under relatively mild <span class="hlt">warming</span> scenarios. Here we show that in order to preserve their annual mean temperatures, tropical populations would have to travel distances greater than 1000 km over less than a century if global mean temperature rises by 2 °C over the same period. The disproportionately rapid evacuation of the tropics under such a scenario would cause migrants to concentrate in tropical margins and the subtropics, where population densities would increase 300% or more. These results may have critical consequences for ecosystem and human wellbeing in tropical contexts where alternatives to geographic displacement are limited.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4900031','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4900031"><span>Potentially <span class="hlt">Extreme</span> Population Displacement and Concentration in the Tropics Under Non-<span class="hlt">Extreme</span> <span class="hlt">Warming</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Hsiang, Solomon M.; Sobel, Adam H.</p> <p>2016-01-01</p> <p>Evidence increasingly suggests that as climate <span class="hlt">warms</span>, some plant, animal, and human populations may move to preserve their environmental temperature. The distances they must travel to do this depends on how much cooler nearby surfaces temperatures are. Because large-scale atmospheric dynamics constrain surface temperatures to be nearly uniform near the equator, these displacements can grow to <span class="hlt">extreme</span> distances in the tropics, even under relatively mild <span class="hlt">warming</span> scenarios. Here we show that in order to preserve their annual mean temperatures, tropical populations would have to travel distances greater than 1000 km over less than a century if global mean temperature rises by 2 °C over the same period. The disproportionately rapid evacuation of the tropics under such a scenario would cause migrants to concentrate in tropical margins and the subtropics, where population densities would increase 300% or more. These results may have critical consequences for ecosystem and human wellbeing in tropical contexts where alternatives to geographic displacement are limited. PMID:27278823</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016NatSR...625697H','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016NatSR...625697H"><span>Potentially <span class="hlt">Extreme</span> Population Displacement and Concentration in the Tropics Under Non-<span class="hlt">Extreme</span> <span class="hlt">Warming</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Hsiang, Solomon M.; Sobel, Adam H.</p> <p>2016-06-01</p> <p>Evidence increasingly suggests that as climate <span class="hlt">warms</span>, some plant, animal, and human populations may move to preserve their environmental temperature. The distances they must travel to do this depends on how much cooler nearby surfaces temperatures are. Because large-scale atmospheric dynamics constrain surface temperatures to be nearly uniform near the equator, these displacements can grow to <span class="hlt">extreme</span> distances in the tropics, even under relatively mild <span class="hlt">warming</span> scenarios. Here we show that in order to preserve their annual mean temperatures, tropical populations would have to travel distances greater than 1000 km over less than a century if global mean temperature rises by 2 °C over the same period. The disproportionately rapid evacuation of the tropics under such a scenario would cause migrants to concentrate in tropical margins and the subtropics, where population densities would increase 300% or more. These results may have critical consequences for ecosystem and human wellbeing in tropical contexts where alternatives to geographic displacement are limited.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016EGUGA..1810767S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016EGUGA..1810767S"><span>The 2015-2016 Arctic <span class="hlt">winter</span>: Perspectives on <span class="hlt">extremes</span> in polar processing and meteorological variability from the 12-year record of Aura Microwave Limb Sounder measurements</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Santee, Michelle; Manney, Gloria; Lambert, Alyn; Livesey, Nathaniel; Lawrence, Zachary</p> <p>2016-04-01</p> <p>In the last decade, the Arctic lower stratosphere has seen some of the most dynamically disturbed <span class="hlt">winters</span>, with stratospheric sudden <span class="hlt">warmings</span> that curtailed polar processing early in the season and limited chemical ozone loss, as well as several <span class="hlt">winters</span> marked by exceptionally cold conditions and severe chemical ozone loss. The occurrence in recent <span class="hlt">winters</span> of different combinations of <span class="hlt">extreme</span> meteorological conditions, and their impact on polar chemical processes, has underscored the Arctic stratosphere's sensitivity to a spectrum of dynamical variability. Launched as part of NASA's Aura satellite in July 2004, the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) provides an extensive suite of measurements enabling quantification of polar processing and chemical ozone loss. Here we use MLS observations in conjunction with meteorological analyses in a comprehensive analysis of the Arctic <span class="hlt">winter</span> of 2015-2016. An unusually large volume of low temperatures in the early <span class="hlt">winter</span> led to strong depletion in gas-phase HNO3 and H2O associated with polar stratospheric cloud formation. As a consequence of this early-<span class="hlt">winter</span> processing and an elongated vortex with significant portions exposed to sunlight, substantial chlorine activation (enhanced abundances of ClO, depressed abundances of HCl) was evident far earlier than is typical in Arctic <span class="hlt">winter</span>. The degree of polar processing and chemical ozone loss in this <span class="hlt">winter</span> will be placed in the context of the previous 11 Arctic <span class="hlt">winters</span> observed by Aura MLS.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4417139','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4417139"><span><span class="hlt">Winter</span> <span class="hlt">warming</span> delays dormancy release, advances budburst, alters carbohydrate metabolism and reduces yield in a temperate shrub</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Pagter, Majken; Andersen, Uffe Brandt; Andersen, Lillie</p> <p>2015-01-01</p> <p>Global climate models predict an increase in the mean surface air temperature, with a disproportionate increase during <span class="hlt">winter</span>. Since temperature is a major driver of phenological events in temperate woody perennials, <span class="hlt">warming</span> is likely to induce changes in a range of these events. We investigated the impact of slightly elevated temperatures (+0.76 °C in the air, +1.35 °C in the soil) during the non-growing season (October–April) on freezing tolerance, carbohydrate metabolism, dormancy release, spring phenology and reproductive output in two blackcurrant (Ribes nigrum) cultivars to understand how <span class="hlt">winter</span> <span class="hlt">warming</span> modifies phenological traits in a woody perennial known to have a large chilling requirement and to be sensitive to spring frost. <span class="hlt">Warming</span> delayed dormancy release more in the cultivar ‘Narve Viking’ than in the cultivar ‘Titania’, but advanced budburst and flowering predominantly in ‘Titania’. Since ‘Narve Viking’ has a higher chilling requirement than ‘Titania’, this indicates that, in high-chilling-requiring genotypes, dormancy responses may temper the effect of <span class="hlt">warming</span> on spring phenology. <span class="hlt">Winter</span> <span class="hlt">warming</span> significantly reduced fruit yield the following summer in both cultivars, corroborating the hypothesis that a decline in <span class="hlt">winter</span> chill may decrease reproductive effort in blackcurrant. Elevated <span class="hlt">winter</span> temperatures tended to decrease stem freezing tolerance during cold acclimation and deacclimation, but it did not increase the risk of freeze-induced damage mid-<span class="hlt">winter</span>. Plants at elevated temperature showed decreased levels of sucrose in stems of both cultivars and flower buds of ‘Narve Viking’, which, in buds, was associated with increased concentrations of glucose and fructose. Hence, <span class="hlt">winter</span> <span class="hlt">warming</span> influences carbohydrate metabolism, but it remains to be elucidated whether decreased sucrose levels account for any changes in freezing tolerance. Our results demonstrate that even a slight increase in <span class="hlt">winter</span> temperature may alter</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25802249','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25802249"><span><span class="hlt">Winter</span> <span class="hlt">warming</span> delays dormancy release, advances budburst, alters carbohydrate metabolism and reduces yield in a temperate shrub.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Pagter, Majken; Andersen, Uffe Brandt; Andersen, Lillie</p> <p>2015-03-23</p> <p>Global climate models predict an increase in the mean surface air temperature, with a disproportionate increase during <span class="hlt">winter</span>. Since temperature is a major driver of phenological events in temperate woody perennials, <span class="hlt">warming</span> is likely to induce changes in a range of these events. We investigated the impact of slightly elevated temperatures (+0.76 °C in the air, +1.35 °C in the soil) during the non-growing season (October-April) on freezing tolerance, carbohydrate metabolism, dormancy release, spring phenology and reproductive output in two blackcurrant (Ribes nigrum) cultivars to understand how <span class="hlt">winter</span> <span class="hlt">warming</span> modifies phenological traits in a woody perennial known to have a large chilling requirement and to be sensitive to spring frost. <span class="hlt">Warming</span> delayed dormancy release more in the cultivar 'Narve Viking' than in the cultivar 'Titania', but advanced budburst and flowering predominantly in 'Titania'. Since 'Narve Viking' has a higher chilling requirement than 'Titania', this indicates that, in high-chilling-requiring genotypes, dormancy responses may temper the effect of <span class="hlt">warming</span> on spring phenology. <span class="hlt">Winter</span> <span class="hlt">warming</span> significantly reduced fruit yield the following summer in both cultivars, corroborating the hypothesis that a decline in <span class="hlt">winter</span> chill may decrease reproductive effort in blackcurrant. Elevated <span class="hlt">winter</span> temperatures tended to decrease stem freezing tolerance during cold acclimation and deacclimation, but it did not increase the risk of freeze-induced damage mid-<span class="hlt">winter</span>. Plants at elevated temperature showed decreased levels of sucrose in stems of both cultivars and flower buds of 'Narve Viking', which, in buds, was associated with increased concentrations of glucose and fructose. Hence, <span class="hlt">winter</span> <span class="hlt">warming</span> influences carbohydrate metabolism, but it remains to be elucidated whether decreased sucrose levels account for any changes in freezing tolerance. Our results demonstrate that even a slight increase in <span class="hlt">winter</span> temperature may alter phenological traits in</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFMGC53B1201K','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFMGC53B1201K"><span>Has global <span class="hlt">warming</span> changed timing of <span class="hlt">winter</span>-spring streamflows over North America?</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Kam, J.; Knutson, T. R.; Milly, P. C. D.</p> <p>2015-12-01</p> <p>Wherever snowmelt runoff substantially contributes to <span class="hlt">winter</span>-spring streamflows, warmer <span class="hlt">winter</span>-spring temperature can accelerate snow melt and reduce later streamflows. These changes can adversely affect human activities and ecological communities (e.g. flood, drought, salmon survival rate, and blooming season). Here we investigate changes in timing of <span class="hlt">winter</span>-spring streamflows over North America (NA) during 1933-2013 and 1951-2000 using observed streamflow and simulated runoff from pre-industrial (unforced) control and historical (realistically forced) runs from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Climate Model version 3. The study regions are north of 41˚N in NA. We analyze <span class="hlt">winter</span>-spring center of volume date (WSCV), the date by which half of the accumulated January through June daily streamflow volume occurs. We first performed a sliding trend analysis of WSCV for time periods starting in various years (1951 through 1984) and ending in 2000. We found that the observed decreasing trends (Theil-Sen slopes) of WSCV over the northeast and northwest U.S. regions are at the edge of detectability (i.e., lie near the edge of the 5th-95th percentile envelope of control runs) for trends beginning any time between 1950 and 1970, but are consistent with the envelope of historical runs for all beginning trend years. Interestingly, for the 1933-2013 analysis, results for the northwest U.S. show that the observed trends of WSCV are positive for periods beginning as early as the mid-1960s, and inconsistent with historical runs for periods beginning in the mid-1950s and later. Aside from this inconsistency, observed trends to 2013 are consistent with both control and historical runs. This study suggests that internal variability has played a major role in timing of <span class="hlt">winter</span>-spring streamflows to date, despite global <span class="hlt">warming</span>, and thus that clear detection and attribution of WSCV trends in the study regions may require longer streamflow records than those now available.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013NatCC...3..466Z','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013NatCC...3..466Z"><span>Energy consumption and the unexplained <span class="hlt">winter</span> <span class="hlt">warming</span> over northern Asia and North America</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Zhang, Guang J.; Cai, Ming; Hu, Aixue</p> <p>2013-05-01</p> <p>The worldwide energy consumption in 2006 was close to 498 exajoules. This is equivalent to an energy convergence of 15.8TW into the populated regions, where energy is consumed and dissipated into the atmosphere as heat. Although energy consumption is sparsely distributed over the vast Earth surface and is only about 0.3% of the total energy transport to the extratropics by atmospheric and oceanic circulations, this anthropogenic heating could disrupt the normal atmospheric circulation pattern and produce a far-reaching effect on surface air temperature. We identify the plausible climate impacts of energy consumption using a global climate model. The results show that the inclusion of energy use at 86 model grid points where it exceeds 0.4Wm-2 can lead to remote surface temperature changes by as much as 1K in mid- and high latitudes in <span class="hlt">winter</span> and autumn over North America and Eurasia. These regions correspond well to areas with large differences in surface temperature trends between observations and global <span class="hlt">warming</span> simulations forced by all natural and anthropogenic forcings. We conclude that energy consumption is probably a missing forcing for the additional <span class="hlt">winter</span> <span class="hlt">warming</span> trends in observations.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016EGUGA..1814433A','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016EGUGA..1814433A"><span>Observed Variability and Trends In <span class="hlt">Winter</span> <span class="hlt">Extreme</span> Minimum in Turkey, From 1966-2014</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Acar Deniz, Zahide; Gonencgil, Barbaros</p> <p>2016-04-01</p> <p>Knowledge of <span class="hlt">extreme</span> temperature events is consequential physical effects. Cold and hot events have delimitated activity of human and quality of life. In this study, <span class="hlt">winter</span> temperature <span class="hlt">extremes</span> and their spatiotemporal variability are investigated at 156 meteorological stations in Turkey. We have chosen the following two indices of <span class="hlt">extremes</span>; frequency of days with minimum temperature below the 1966-2014 mean 1st (<span class="hlt">extreme</span> cold nights) and 5th (cold nights) percentiles. Trends in <span class="hlt">extreme</span> minimum temperature have been analyzed from 1966 to 2014 in <span class="hlt">winter</span> season. In order to detect possible trends in <span class="hlt">extreme</span> temperature over the Turkey, the Mann-Kendall test has applied to the annual percentile series. The lowest minimum temperature <span class="hlt">extreme</span> values are observed in the east of Turkey. The most <span class="hlt">extreme</span> cold events have been experienced in 1972. The Central and eastern regions of Turkey, be effective in the continental climate, there are increasing numbers of <span class="hlt">extreme</span> cold night events. <span class="hlt">Extreme</span> cold events are less observed in coastal stations. The number of <span class="hlt">extreme</span> cold events has been observed a downward trend since 1990. The decreasing trends are not statistically significant. This situation displays cold events have fewer experienced from year to year. This study is supported by the Turkish Scientific and Technical Research Institute (Project number: 114Y417). Keywords: <span class="hlt">Extreme</span> temperature, cold events, Mann-Kendall, Turkey.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4657495','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4657495"><span><span class="hlt">Winter</span> <span class="hlt">warming</span> as an important co-driver for Betula nana growth in western Greenland during the past century</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Hollesen, Jørgen; Buchwal, Agata; Rachlewicz, Grzegorz; Hansen, Birger U; Hansen, Marc O; Stecher, Ole; Elberling, Bo</p> <p>2015-01-01</p> <p>Growing season conditions are widely recognized as the main driver for tundra shrub radial growth, but the effects of <span class="hlt">winter</span> <span class="hlt">warming</span> and snow remain an open question. Here, we present a more than 100 years long Betula nana ring-width chronology from Disko Island in western Greenland that demonstrates a highly significant and positive growth response to both summer and <span class="hlt">winter</span> air temperatures during the past century. The importance of <span class="hlt">winter</span> temperatures for Betula nana growth is especially pronounced during the periods from 1910–1930 to 1990–2011 that were dominated by significant <span class="hlt">winter</span> <span class="hlt">warming</span>. To explain the strong <span class="hlt">winter</span> importance on growth, we assessed the importance of different environmental factors using site-specific measurements from 1991 to 2011 of soil temperatures, sea ice coverage, precipitation and snow depths. The results show a strong positive growth response to the amount of thawing and growing degree-days as well as to <span class="hlt">winter</span> and spring soil temperatures. In addition to these direct effects, a strong negative growth response to sea ice extent was identified, indicating a possible link between local sea ice conditions, local climate variations and Betula nana growth rates. Data also reveal a clear shift within the last 20 years from a period with thick snow depths (1991–1996) and a positive effect on Betula nana radial growth, to a period (1997–2011) with generally very shallow snow depths and no significant growth response towards snow. During this period, <span class="hlt">winter</span> and spring soil temperatures have increased significantly suggesting that the most recent increase in Betula nana radial growth is primarily triggered by warmer <span class="hlt">winter</span> and spring air temperatures causing earlier snowmelt that allows the soils to drain and <span class="hlt">warm</span> quicker. The presented results may help to explain the recently observed ‘greening of the Arctic’ which may further accelerate in future years due to both direct and indirect effects of <span class="hlt">winter</span> <span class="hlt">warming</span>. PMID:25788025</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2011AGUFM.B21J..07D','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2011AGUFM.B21J..07D"><span>Cropland responses to <span class="hlt">extreme</span> <span class="hlt">winter</span> temperature events: results from a manipulation experiment in north-eastern Italy</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>De Simon, G.; Alberti, G.; Delle Vedove, G.; Peressotti, A.; Zaldei, A.; Miglietta, F.</p> <p>2011-12-01</p> <p>In the last years, several studies has focused on terrestrial ecosystem response to climate <span class="hlt">warming</span>. Most of them have been conducted on natural ecosystems (forests or grasslands), but few have considered intensively managed ecosystems such as croplands despite of their global extension. In particular, <span class="hlt">extreme</span> events, such as temperature changes outside the growing season (<span class="hlt">winter</span>) when soil is not covered by plants, can have a strong impact on soil respiration, residues decomposition, yield and overall net biome production (NBP). In this study, we investigated the response of soil respiration (total and heterotrophic), aboveground NPP, yield and NBP on a soybean crop (Glycine max (L.) Merr.) due to a manipulated warmer or cooler <span class="hlt">winter</span>. The experiment was carried out in Beano (46°00' N 13°01'E, Italy). Soil albedo and soil temperature were manipulated by covering soil surface during late <span class="hlt">winter</span> with a layer of inert ceramized silica gravel. We tested three treatments with three replicates each: cooling (Co; white gravel), <span class="hlt">warming</span> (W; black gravel), mix (M; black and white 4:1 gravel) and control (C; bare soil). An automated soil respiration system measured continuously total soil CO2 efflux across all the year and heterotrophic respiration after sowing in root exclusion subplots. Additionally, soil temperature profiles (0, 2.5, 5 and 10 cm depth), soil water content (between 5 and 10 cm depth) were monitored in each plot. After sowing, soybean phenological phases were periodically assessed and final yield was measured in each plot. Preliminary results showed a significant change in upper soil temperature between gravel application and canopy closure (maximum of + 5.8 °C and - 6.8 °C in the <span class="hlt">warming</span> and cooling treatments, respectively). However, <span class="hlt">warming</span> had only a transient effect on soil respiration (increase) before sowing. Thereafter, as soon as fresh organic matter availability decreased, soil respiration rate decreased and annual budget was not</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012EGUGA..14.2909D','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012EGUGA..14.2909D"><span>Cropland responses to <span class="hlt">extreme</span> <span class="hlt">winter</span> temperature events: results from a manipulation experiment in north-eastern Italy</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>De Simon, G.; Alberti, G.; Delle Vedove, G.; Peressotti, A.; Zaldei, A.; Miglietta, F.</p> <p>2012-04-01</p> <p>In the last years, several studies has focused on terrestrial ecosystem response to climate <span class="hlt">warming</span>. Most of them have been conducted on natural ecosystems (forests or grasslands), but few have considered intensively managed ecosystems such as croplands despite of their global extension. In particular, <span class="hlt">extreme</span> events, such as temperature changes outside the growing season (<span class="hlt">winter</span>) when soil is not covered by plants, can have a strong impact on soil respiration, residues decomposition, yield and overall net biome production (NBP). In this study, we investigated the response of soil respiration (total and heterotrophic), aboveground NPP, yield and NBP on a soybean crop (Glycine max (L.) Merr.) due to a manipulated warmer or cooler <span class="hlt">winter</span>. The experiment was carried out in Beano (46°00' N 13°01'E, Italy). Soil albedo and soil temperature were manipulated by covering soil surface during late <span class="hlt">winter</span> with a layer of inert ceramized silica gravel. We tested three treatments with three replicates each: cooling (Co; white gravel), <span class="hlt">warming</span> (W; black gravel), mix (M; black and white 4:1 gravel) and control (C; bare soil). An automated soil respiration system measured continuously total soil CO2 efflux across all the year and heterotrophic respiration after sowing in root exclusion subplots. Additionally, soil temperature profiles (0, 2.5, 5 and 10 cm depth), soil water content (between 5 and 10 cm depth) were monitored in each plot. After sowing, soybean phenological phases were periodically assessed and final yield was measured in each plot. Results showed a significant change in upper soil temperature between gravel application and canopy closure (maximum of + 5.8 °C and - 6.8 °C in the <span class="hlt">warming</span> and cooling treatments, respectively). However, <span class="hlt">warming</span> had only a transient effect on soil respiration (increase) before sowing. Thereafter, as soon as fresh organic matter availability decreased, soil respiration rate decreased and annual budget was not significantly different</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015JGRD..120.3292P','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015JGRD..120.3292P"><span>Multiscale influences on <span class="hlt">extreme</span> <span class="hlt">winter</span> rainfall in the Philippines</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Pullen, Julie; Gordon, Arnold L.; Flatau, Maria; Doyle, James D.; Villanoy, Cesar; Cabrera, Olivia</p> <p>2015-04-01</p> <p>During 2007-2008, the Philippines experienced the greatest rainfall in 40 <span class="hlt">winters</span>. We use a combination of observations (including 48 meteorological stations distributed throughout the islands, Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission satellite-sensed precipitation, and shipboard measurements) along with a high-resolution two-way coupled ocean/atmosphere model (3 km Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS)®) to examine this anomalous season. As expected from climatology, rainfall was greatest on the eastern side of the archipelago, with seasonal totals exceeding 4000 mm in some locations. A moderate to strong La Niña increased the rainfall across the region. But discrete precipitation events delivered the bulk of the rain to the area and coincided with intense Madden-Julian oscillation activity over the archipelago and a late February cold surge. General patterns and magnitudes of rainfall produced by the two-way coupled model agreed with observations from land and from space. During the discrete events, the 3 km COAMPS also produced high amounts of precipitation in the mountainous parts of central Philippines. Direct observations were limited in this region. However, the government reported river flooding and evacuations in Mindoro during February 2008 as a result of significant rainfall. In addition, shipboard measurements from late January 2008 (collected by the Philippines Straits Dynamics Experiment) reveal a fresh lens of water to the west of the island of Mindoro, consistent with high freshwater discharge (river runoff) into the coastal area.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20020060510','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20020060510"><span>Are Stronger North-Atlantic Southwesterlies Forcing to the Late <span class="hlt">Winter</span> <span class="hlt">Warming</span> in Europe?</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Otterman, J.; Atlas, Robert; Chou, S.-H.; Jusem, J. C.; Pielke, R. A., Sr.; Chase, T. N.; Rogers, J.; Russell, G. L.; Schubert, S. D.; Sud, Y. C.</p> <p>2001-01-01</p> <p>We examine a possible mechanism leading to late-<span class="hlt">winter</span> <span class="hlt">warming</span> and thus to an early spring in Europe. From the NCEP Reanalysis, we extract for the years 1948-1999 ocean-surface winds over the eastern North Atlantic, and air temperatures at the surface, T(sub s), and at the 500 mb level, T(sub 500), in late-<span class="hlt">winter</span> and spring. T(sub s) is extracted at six European locations, all at 50.5 N, ranging in longitude from 1.9 E (northeastern France) to 26.2 E (Ukraine). To quantify the advection of maritime air into Europe, we evaluate for 3-pentad groups the Index I(sub na) of the southwesterlies at 45 N; 20 W: I(sub na) is the average wind speed at this point if the direction is from the quadrant 180-270 deg (when the direction is different, the contribution counts as zero). In late <span class="hlt">winter</span> correlations C(sub it) between the Index I(sub na) and the temperature T(sub s) are substantial, up to the 0.6 level, in western Europe (but weaker correlations for Poland and Ukraine). C(sub it) drops sharply by mid-March, taking occasionally negative values subsequently. This drop in C(sub it) indicates that maritime air advection is no longer associated closely with the surface-air <span class="hlt">warming</span>, the role of immolation becomes important, and thus the drop in C(sub it) marks the arrival of spring. Correlations C(sub i delta) between I(sub na) and our lapse-rate parameter delta, the difference between T(sub s) and T(sub 500), indicate that the flow of <span class="hlt">warm</span> maritime-air from the North Atlantic into this 'corridor' at 50.5 N is predominantly at low tropospheric level. By computing the best linear fit to I(sub na) and T(sub s), the trends for the period 1948-1999 are evaluated. The trends are appreciable in the second half of February and the first half of March. Our 3-pentad analysis points to the interval from mid-February to mid-March as the end-of-<span class="hlt">winter</span> period in which the southwesterlies over the eastern North Atlantic become stronger and the surface-air temperatures in Europe rise</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017ClDy...48.1467Z','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017ClDy...48.1467Z"><span>Atmospheric response to Indian Ocean Dipole forcing: changes of Southeast China <span class="hlt">winter</span> precipitation under global <span class="hlt">warming</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Zhang, Ling; Sielmann, Frank; Fraedrich, Klaus; Zhi, Xiefei</p> <p>2017-03-01</p> <p>To investigate the relationship between autumn Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events and the subsequent <span class="hlt">winter</span> precipitation in Southeast China (SEC), observed fields of monthly precipitation, sea surface temperature (SST) and atmospheric circulation are subjected to a running and a maximum correlation analysis. The results show a significant change of the relevance of IOD for the early modulation of SEC <span class="hlt">winter</span> precipitation in the 1980s. After 1980, positive correlations suggest prolonged atmospheric responses to IOD forcing, which are linked to an abnormal moisture supply initiated in autumn and extended into the subsequent <span class="hlt">winter</span>. Under global <span class="hlt">warming</span> two modulating factors are relevant: (1) an increase of the static stability has been observed suppressing vertical heat and momentum transports; (2) a positive (mid-level) cloud-radiation feedback jointly with the associated latent heating (apparent moisture sink Q2) explains the prolongation of positive as well as negative SST anomalies by conserving the heating (apparent heat source Q1) in the coupled atmosphere-ocean system. During the positive IOD events in fall (after 1980) the dipole heating anomalies in the middle and lower troposphere over the tropical Indian Ocean are prolonged to <span class="hlt">winter</span> by a positive mid-level cloud-radiative feedback with latent heat release. Subsequently, thermal adaptation leads to an anticyclonic anomaly over Eastern India overlying the anomalous cooling SST of the tropical Eastern Indian Ocean enhancing the moisture flow from the tropical Indian Ocean through the Bay of Bengal into South China, following the northwestern boundary of the anticyclonic circulation anomaly over east India, thereby favoring abundant precipitation in SEC.</p> </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_5");'>5</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_6");'>6</a></li> <li class="active"><span>7</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_8");'>8</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_9");'>9</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div><!-- col-sm-12 --> </div><!-- row --> </div><!-- page_7 --> <div id="page_8" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_6");'>6</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_7");'>7</a></li> <li class="active"><span>8</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_9");'>9</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_10");'>10</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="141"> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016ClDy..tmp..187Z','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016ClDy..tmp..187Z"><span>Atmospheric response to Indian Ocean Dipole forcing: changes of Southeast China <span class="hlt">winter</span> precipitation under global <span class="hlt">warming</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Zhang, Ling; Sielmann, Frank; Fraedrich, Klaus; Zhi, Xiefei</p> <p>2016-05-01</p> <p>To investigate the relationship between autumn Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events and the subsequent <span class="hlt">winter</span> precipitation in Southeast China (SEC), observed fields of monthly precipitation, sea surface temperature (SST) and atmospheric circulation are subjected to a running and a maximum correlation analysis. The results show a significant change of the relevance of IOD for the early modulation of SEC <span class="hlt">winter</span> precipitation in the 1980s. After 1980, positive correlations suggest prolonged atmospheric responses to IOD forcing, which are linked to an abnormal moisture supply initiated in autumn and extended into the subsequent <span class="hlt">winter</span>. Under global <span class="hlt">warming</span> two modulating factors are relevant: (1) an increase of the static stability has been observed suppressing vertical heat and momentum transports; (2) a positive (mid-level) cloud-radiation feedback jointly with the associated latent heating (apparent moisture sink Q2) explains the prolongation of positive as well as negative SST anomalies by conserving the heating (apparent heat source Q1) in the coupled atmosphere-ocean system. During the positive IOD events in fall (after 1980) the dipole heating anomalies in the middle and lower troposphere over the tropical Indian Ocean are prolonged to <span class="hlt">winter</span> by a positive mid-level cloud-radiative feedback with latent heat release. Subsequently, thermal adaptation leads to an anticyclonic anomaly over Eastern India overlying the anomalous cooling SST of the tropical Eastern Indian Ocean enhancing the moisture flow from the tropical Indian Ocean through the Bay of Bengal into South China, following the northwestern boundary of the anticyclonic circulation anomaly over east India, thereby favoring abundant precipitation in SEC.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/12684862','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/12684862"><span><span class="hlt">Winter</span> <span class="hlt">warming</span> facilitates range expansion: cold tolerance of the butterfly Atalopedes campestris.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Crozier, Lisa</p> <p>2003-05-01</p> <p>Our ability to predict ecological and evolutionary responses to climate change requires an understanding of the mechanistic links between climate and range limits. The <span class="hlt">warming</span> trend over the past half-century has generated numerous opportunities to develop much-needed case studies of these links. Species that are only limited by climatic factors are likely to shift range quickly during periods of <span class="hlt">warming</span>. Such species directly impact recipient communities and indicate trends that will become more widespread. Because minimum temperature (T (min)) is rising at twice the rate of maximum temperature, species with this range-limiting factor may be especially responsive to global <span class="hlt">warming</span>. In this study, I test the hypothesis that rising T (min) has directly affected the range of a skipper butterfly. Atalopedes campestris has moved northward rapidly this century, recently colonizing eastern Washington where January T (min) has risen 3 degrees C in 50 years. The results show that: 1. A. campestris' range lies completely within the -4 degrees C January average minimum isotherm, and that recently colonized areas were below this threshold earlier this century. 2. In acute cold stress experiments, -4 to -7 degrees C proved to be a critical thermal limit: median supercooling point was -6.3 degrees C, and minimum lethal temperature (LT50 with 12-h exposure) was -5.7 degrees C. 3. In chronic cold stress experiments, survivorship declined sharply in diurnally fluctuating thermal regimes typical of the current range edge. High mortality occurred under constant 0 degrees C conditions as well as in fluctuating regimes, implying that thermal insulation from snow would not protect A. campestris. 4. There was no evidence of evolution in cold tolerance at the range margin, despite strong selection. Thus, <span class="hlt">winter</span> <span class="hlt">warming</span> was apparently a prerequisite for the range expansion. Characteristics of this species that seem to be associated with its rapid response are that it is an opportunistic</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/15156353','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/15156353"><span>Observed <span class="hlt">winter</span> <span class="hlt">warming</span> of the Chesapeake Bay estuary (1949-2002): implications for ecosystem management.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Preston, Benjamin L</p> <p>2004-07-01</p> <p>A large number of studies have documented 20th century climate variability and change at the global, hemispheric, and regional levels. However, understanding the implications of climate change for environmental management necessitates information at the level of the ecosystem. Historical monitoring data from the Chesapeake Bay estuary were used to identify temporal patterns of estuarine temperature anomalies in the surface (</=1 m) and subsurface (>/=15 m) between 1949 and 2002. Data indicated a trend in surface and subsurface <span class="hlt">warming</span> of +0.16 degrees C and +0.21 degrees C per decade, respectively, driven by <span class="hlt">warming</span> during <span class="hlt">winter</span> and spring. These trends suggest <span class="hlt">warming</span> of the estuary since the mid-20th century of approximately 0.8-1.1 degrees C. Estuarine temperatures correlated well with other independent data records for sea surface and surface air temperatures in the region and to a lesser extent, the northern hemisphere. Gross long-term temperature variability in the estuary was consistent with North Atlantic climate variability associated with the prolonged positive North Atlantic Oscillation/Arctic Oscillation and increased anthropogenic radiative forcing, although localized environmental drivers likely are important as well. A simple spatial analysis revealed strong seasonal latitudinal and longitudinal gradients in estuarine temperature as well as a north-south gradient in long-term temperature trends. Continued <span class="hlt">warming</span> of the estuary will have important implications for ecosystem structure and function as well as attempts to manage existing challenges such as eutrophication and benthic hypoxia. However, such management efforts must be cognizant of the effects of various climate and nonclimate drivers of environmental variability and change operating over different spatial and temporal scales.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010EGUGA..12.7610C','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010EGUGA..12.7610C"><span>Dynamic characteristics of atmospheric planetary waves during stratospheric <span class="hlt">warmings</span> in <span class="hlt">winter</span> 2008</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Chernigovskaya, Marina; Medvedev, Andrey; Tolstikov, Maxim; Medvedeva, Irina; Ratovsky, Konstantin</p> <p>2010-05-01</p> <p>The wave mechanism of energy transfer is quite significant in transferring energy in the Earth's atmosphere. Atmospheric internal waves of different spatial and temporal scales (including 1-30-day planetary waves) transfer a great deal of kinetic energy from the troposphere and stratosphere to higher atmospheric layers. As deduced from experimental data, systems of strong zonal stratospheric winds prevent penetration of planetary waves from the troposphere to the upper atmosphere (mesosphere and thermosphere), but the part of their energy reaches the upper atmosphere. Planetary waves are in many respects associated with such interesting phenomena in the Earth's stratosphere as sudden <span class="hlt">winter</span> stratospheric <span class="hlt">warmings</span> (SSW), observed almost every <span class="hlt">winter</span> and characterized by geographical nonuniformity. High concentration of stratospheric <span class="hlt">warming</span> centers is typical of the Asian region of Russia. We examined dynamic characteristics of atmospheric planetary waves observed in the Asian region of Russia in the longitudinal sector of ~80-125°E during stratospheric <span class="hlt">warmings</span> in <span class="hlt">winter</span> 2008. Satellite data on vertical temperature distribution obtained by the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) aboard the spacecraft EOS Aura and Irkutsk digisonde DPS-4 data were used. It has been established that pronounced wave-like temperature disturbances with characteristic periods of 10-14 days were observed in the Asian region of Russia in the sector of ~80-125°E and 40-64°N over a height range of 20-90 km during development of the SSW in January-February 2008. Revealed here is a high correlation between temperature disturbances and the minimum frequency of reflection in the Irkutsk digisonde DPS-4 ionograms. This paper offers a method for investigating characteristics of propagation of long-term temperature disturbances by a cross-correlation analysis. This method consists in determining delays between disturbances observed at different points and in deriving a system of linear equations for</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1999JGR...10419039K','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1999JGR...10419039K"><span>Climate model simulation of <span class="hlt">winter</span> <span class="hlt">warming</span> and summer cooling following the 1991 Mount Pinatubo volcanic eruption</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Kirchner, Ingo; Stenchikov, Georgiy L.; Graf, Hans-F.; Robock, Alan; AntuñA, Juan Carlos</p> <p>1999-08-01</p> <p>We simulate climate change for the 2-year period following the eruption of Mount Pinatubo in the Philippines on June 15, 1991, with the ECHAM4 general circulation model (GCM). The model was forced by realistic aerosol spatial-time distributions and spectral radiative characteristics calculated using Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment II extinctions and Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite-retrieved effective radii. We calculate statistical ensembles of GCM simulations with and without volcanic aerosols for 2 years after the eruption for three different sea surface temperatures (SSTs): climatological SST, El Niño-type SST of 1991-1993, and La Niña-type SST of 1984-1986. We performed detailed comparisons of calculated fields with observations. We analyzed the atmospheric response to Pinatubo radiative forcing and the ability of the GCM to reproduce it with different SSTs. The temperature of the tropical lower stratosphere increased by 4 K because of aerosol absorption of terrestrial longwave and solar near-infrared radiation. The heating is larger than observed, but that is because in this simulation we did not account for quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) cooling and the cooling effects of volcanically induced ozone depletion. We estimated that both QBO and ozone depletion decrease the stratospheric temperature by about 2 K. The remaining 2 K stratospheric <span class="hlt">warming</span> is in good agreement with observations. By comparing the runs with the Pinatubo aerosol forcing with those with no aerosols, we find that the model calculates a general cooling of the global troposphere, but with a clear <span class="hlt">winter</span> <span class="hlt">warming</span> pattern of surface air temperature over Northern Hemisphere continents. This pattern is consistent with the observed temperature patterns. The stratospheric heating and tropospheric summer cooling are directly caused by aerosol radiative effects, but the <span class="hlt">winter</span> <span class="hlt">warming</span> is indirect, produced by dynamical responses to the enhanced stratospheric latitudinal temperature</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017GeoRL..44..974B','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017GeoRL..44..974B"><span>Is the intensification of precipitation <span class="hlt">extremes</span> with global <span class="hlt">warming</span> better detected at hourly than daily resolutions?</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Barbero, R.; Fowler, H. J.; Lenderink, G.; Blenkinsop, S.</p> <p>2017-01-01</p> <p>Although it has been documented that daily precipitation <span class="hlt">extremes</span> are increasing worldwide, faster increases may be expected for subdaily <span class="hlt">extremes</span>. Here after a careful quality control procedure, we compared trends in hourly and daily precipitation <span class="hlt">extremes</span> using a large network of stations across the United States (U.S.) within the 1950-2011 period. A greater number of significant increasing trends in annual and seasonal maximum precipitation were detected from daily <span class="hlt">extremes</span>, with the primary exception of wintertime. Our results also show that the mean percentage change in annual maximum daily precipitation across the U.S. per global <span class="hlt">warming</span> degree is 6.9% °C-1 (in agreement with the Clausius-Clapeyron rate) while lower sensitivities were observed for hourly <span class="hlt">extremes</span>, suggesting that changes in the magnitude of subdaily <span class="hlt">extremes</span> in response to global <span class="hlt">warming</span> emerge more slowly than those for daily <span class="hlt">extremes</span> in the climate record.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2007Icar..186...97M','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2007Icar..186...97M"><span><span class="hlt">Winter</span> polar <span class="hlt">warmings</span> and the meridional transport on Mars simulated with a general circulation model</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Medvedev, Alexander S.; Hartogh, Paul</p> <p>2007-01-01</p> <p><span class="hlt">Winter</span> polar <span class="hlt">warmings</span> in the middle atmosphere of Mars occur due to the adiabatic heating associated with the downward branch of the cross-equatorial meridional circulation. Thus, they are the manifestation of the global meridional transport rather than of local radiative effects. We report on a series of numerical experiments with a recently developed general circulation model of the martian atmosphere to examine the relative roles of the mechanical and thermal forcing in the meridional transport. The experiments were focused on answering the question of whether the martian circulation is consistent with the thermally driven nearly inviscid Hadley cell, as was pointed out by some previous studies, or it is forced mainly by zonally asymmetric eddies. It is demonstrated that, under realistic conditions in the middle atmosphere, the meridional transport is maintained primarily by dissipating large-scale planetary waves and solar tides. This mechanism is similar to the "extratropical pump" in the middle atmosphere on Earth. Only in the run with artificially weak zonal disturbances, was the circulation reminiscent of thermally induced Hadley cells. In the experiment with an imposed dust storm, the modified atmospheric refraction changes the vertical propagation of the eddies. As the result, the Eliassen-Palm fluxes convergence increases in high <span class="hlt">winter</span> latitudes of the middle atmosphere, the meridional transport gets stronger, and the polar temperature rises. Additional numerical experiments demonstrated that insufficient model resolution, increased numerical dissipation, and, especially, neglect of non-LTE effects for the 15 μm CO 2 band could weaken the meridional transport and the magnitude of polar <span class="hlt">warmings</span> in GCMs.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016MAP...tmp...51D','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016MAP...tmp...51D"><span><span class="hlt">Warm</span> pool/cold tongue El Niño and Indian <span class="hlt">winter</span> Monsoon</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Dimri, A. P.</p> <p>2016-08-01</p> <p>In view of the recent global changes in the hydrological, glaciological, agricultural, socio-economic studies, etc., particularly, over the northern Indian region, Indian <span class="hlt">winter</span> (December, January, February—DJF) monsoon (IWM) has important role. Geographical positioning of the Indian subcontinent having mighty Himalayas in the north and surrounding ocean in the south makes assessment of IWM important and interesting to study. During IWM, the western Himalayas (WH) receives almost one-third of annual precipitation due to eastward moving extratropical cyclonic storms, western disturbances (WDs), embedded within the large scale subtropical westerly jet (SWJ). In addition, IWM is found to be in phase with the El Niño—Southern Oscillation (ENSO). With reference to the recent decade's finding of having different phases of El Niño- <span class="hlt">warm</span> pool (WP) and cold tongue (CT)—it is imperative to see how these phases affect IWM. In the present study a simple mechanism between IWM with different phases of these El Niño and their relationship is studied and deliberated upon. WP and CT El Niño phase composites are prepared and their corresponding role in tandem with IWM is provided. It is found that during WP (CP) El Niño phase WH (foothill of the Indian Himalayan) region receives higher amount of <span class="hlt">winter</span> precipitation. It is attributed to the fact that equatorial central Pacific <span class="hlt">warming</span> makes more conducive proposition for intensification of the WDs and thus associated higher precipitation over western part of the Indian Himalayas. Northward shift of confluence over northern Atlantic region during WP El Niño phase dampens the SWJ leading to longer residence time for weather events—WDs—over the WH region. In addition, strengthening of Hadley cell leads to higher northward transport of moisture from the Indian Ocean region.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017MAP...129..321D','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017MAP...129..321D"><span><span class="hlt">Warm</span> pool/cold tongue El Niño and Indian <span class="hlt">winter</span> Monsoon</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Dimri, A. P.</p> <p>2017-06-01</p> <p>In view of the recent global changes in the hydrological, glaciological, agricultural, socio-economic studies, etc., particularly, over the northern Indian region, Indian <span class="hlt">winter</span> (December, January, February—DJF) monsoon (IWM) has important role. Geographical positioning of the Indian subcontinent having mighty Himalayas in the north and surrounding ocean in the south makes assessment of IWM important and interesting to study. During IWM, the western Himalayas (WH) receives almost one-third of annual precipitation due to eastward moving extratropical cyclonic storms, western disturbances (WDs), embedded within the large scale subtropical westerly jet (SWJ). In addition, IWM is found to be in phase with the El Niño—Southern Oscillation (ENSO). With reference to the recent decade's finding of having different phases of El Niño- <span class="hlt">warm</span> pool (WP) and cold tongue (CT)—it is imperative to see how these phases affect IWM. In the present study a simple mechanism between IWM with different phases of these El Niño and their relationship is studied and deliberated upon. WP and CT El Niño phase composites are prepared and their corresponding role in tandem with IWM is provided. It is found that during WP (CP) El Niño phase WH (foothill of the Indian Himalayan) region receives higher amount of <span class="hlt">winter</span> precipitation. It is attributed to the fact that equatorial central Pacific <span class="hlt">warming</span> makes more conducive proposition for intensification of the WDs and thus associated higher precipitation over western part of the Indian Himalayas. Northward shift of confluence over northern Atlantic region during WP El Niño phase dampens the SWJ leading to longer residence time for weather events—WDs—over the WH region. In addition, strengthening of Hadley cell leads to higher northward transport of moisture from the Indian Ocean region.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26430383','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26430383"><span>Extinction of an introduced <span class="hlt">warm</span>-climate alien species, Xenopus laevis, by <span class="hlt">extreme</span> weather events.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Tinsley, Richard C; Stott, Lucy C; Viney, Mark E; Mable, Barbara K; Tinsley, Matthew C</p> <p></p> <p>Invasive, non-native species represent a major threat to biodiversity worldwide. The African amphibian Xenopus laevis is widely regarded as an invasive species and a threat to local faunas. Populations originating at the Western Cape, South Africa, have been introduced on four continents, mostly in areas with a similar Mediterranean climate. Some introduced populations are also established in cooler environments where persistence for many decades suggests a capacity for long-term adaptation. In these cases, recent climate <span class="hlt">warming</span> might enhance invasion ability, favouring range expansion, population growth and negative effects on native faunas. In the cool temperate UK, populations have been established for about 50 years in Wales and for an unknown period, probably >20 years, in England (Lincolnshire). Our field studies over 30 and 10 years, respectively, show that in favourable conditions there may be good recruitment, fast individual growth rates and large body size; maximum longevity exceeds 23 years. Nevertheless, areas of distribution remained limited, with numbers <500 in each population. In 2010, only a single individual was captured at each locality and further searching failed to record any others in repeated sampling up to 2014. We conclude that both populations are now extinct. The <span class="hlt">winters</span> of 2009-2010 and 2010-2011 experienced <span class="hlt">extreme</span> cold and drought (December 2010 was the coldest in 120 years and the third driest in 100 years). The extinction of X. laevis in these areas indicates that even relatively long-established alien species remain vulnerable to rare <span class="hlt">extreme</span> weather conditions.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013GeoRL..40..589C','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013GeoRL..40..589C"><span>The role of land use change in the recent <span class="hlt">warming</span> of daily <span class="hlt">extreme</span> temperatures</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Christidis, Nikolaos; Stott, Peter A.; Hegerl, Gabriele C.; Betts, Richard A.</p> <p>2013-02-01</p> <p><title type="main">Abstract Understanding how temperature <span class="hlt">extremes</span> respond in a climate forced by human activity is of great importance, as <span class="hlt">extreme</span> temperatures are detrimental to health and often responsible for mortality increases. While previous detection and attribution studies demonstrated a significant human influence on the recent <span class="hlt">warming</span> of daily <span class="hlt">extremes</span>, contributions of individual anthropogenic forcings like changes in land use have not yet been investigated in such studies. Here we apply an optimal fingerprinting technique to data from observations and experiments with a new earth system model to examine whether changing land use has led to detectable changes in daily <span class="hlt">extreme</span> temperatures on a quasi-global scale. We find that loss of trees and increase of grassland since preindustrial times has caused an overall cooling trend in both mean and <span class="hlt">extreme</span> temperatures which is detectable in the observed changes of <span class="hlt">warm</span> but not cold <span class="hlt">extremes</span>. The <span class="hlt">warming</span> in both mean and <span class="hlt">extreme</span> temperatures due to anthropogenic forcings other than land use is detected in all cases, whereas the weaker effect of natural climatic forcings is not detected in any. This is the first formal attribution of observed climatic changes to changing land use, suggesting further investigations are justified, particularly in studies of <span class="hlt">warm</span> <span class="hlt">extremes</span>.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014AGUFMGC21I..07C','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014AGUFMGC21I..07C"><span>A Global Analysis of the Link between Soil Moisture Dynamics and <span class="hlt">Warm</span> <span class="hlt">Extremes</span>.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Casagrande, E.; Kondapalli, N. K.; Mueller, B.; Miralles, D. G.; Molini, A.</p> <p>2014-12-01</p> <p>Under future climatic scenarios long-lasting <span class="hlt">warm</span> <span class="hlt">extremes</span>, such as heat waves, are expected to become more intense, persistent and frequent for both temperate and arid regions, resulting in diverse but nonetheless significant impacts for the human health, sustainable development and economy of these regions. As the underlying processes responsible for triggering and sustaining <span class="hlt">warm</span> <span class="hlt">extremes</span> are <span class="hlt">extremely</span> variegate and yet not well understood, the occurrence of <span class="hlt">extreme</span> events such heat waves and prolonged droughts results exceedingly difficult to predict and model. Major uncertainties arise from the fact that <span class="hlt">warm</span> <span class="hlt">extremes</span> mainly derive from the interplay of large-scale atmospheric processes and local feedbacks operating across very different spatial and temporal scales, and are characterized by several thresholds, limiting factors and non-linearities determining their deviation from the "classical" <span class="hlt">extreme</span>-value theory.In this study we explore - from a global point of view - the role of local and synoptic dynamical components in initiating <span class="hlt">warm</span> <span class="hlt">extremes</span> and in determining their spatial and temporal clustering. Previous studies have already highlighted the role of large negative soil moisture anomalies in causing and sustaining long periods of dry and hot weather. For this reason we propose here a novel approach to the characterization of <span class="hlt">warm</span> <span class="hlt">extremes</span>, based on the conditioning of traditional air temperature quintile statistics to antecedent soil moisture conditions. Case studies from different climatic regimes are shown in order to prove the major and varied role of antecedent soil moisture conditions across the different regions of the world. In addition, we also investigate the connection between regional climate features and large-scale dynamics during <span class="hlt">warm</span> <span class="hlt">extremes</span> by the joint usage of classical diagnostic analysis and novel statistics for the detection of cross-scale interactions.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=2871880','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=2871880"><span>Nectar yeasts <span class="hlt">warm</span> the flowers of a <span class="hlt">winter</span>-blooming plant</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Herrera, Carlos M.; Pozo, María I.</p> <p>2010-01-01</p> <p>Yeasts are ubiquitous in terrestrial and aquatic microbiota, yet their ecological functionality remains relatively unexplored in comparison with other micro-organisms. This paper formulates and tests the novel hypothesis that heat produced by the sugar catabolism of yeast populations inhabiting floral nectar can increase the temperature of floral nectar and, more generally, modify the within-flower thermal microenvironment. Two field experiments were designed to test this hypothesis for the <span class="hlt">winter</span>-blooming herb Helleborus foetidus (Ranunculaceae). In experiment 1, the effect of yeasts on the within-flower thermal environment was tested by excluding them from flowers, while in experiment 2 the test involved artificial inoculation of virgin flowers with yeasts. Nectary temperature (Tnect), within-flower air temperature (Tflow) and external air temperature (Tair) were measured on experimental and control flowers in both experiments. Experimental exclusion of yeasts from the nectaries significantly reduced, and experimental addition of yeasts significantly increased, the temperature excess of nectaries (ΔTnect = Tnect − Tair) and the air space inside flowers in relation to the air just outside the flowers. In non-experimental flowers exposed to natural pollinator visitation, ΔTnect was linearly related to log yeast cell density in nectar, and reached +6°C in nectaries with the densest yeast populations. The <span class="hlt">warming</span> effect of nectar-dwelling yeasts documented in this study suggests novel ecological mechanisms potentially linking nectarivorous microbes with <span class="hlt">winter</span>-blooming plants and their insect pollinators. PMID:20147331</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017OcSci..13...47B','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017OcSci..13...47B"><span>Changes in <span class="hlt">extreme</span> regional sea level under global <span class="hlt">warming</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Brunnabend, S.-E.; Dijkstra, H. A.; Kliphuis, M. A.; Bal, H. E.; Seinstra, F.; van Werkhoven, B.; Maassen, J.; van Meersbergen, M.</p> <p>2017-01-01</p> <p>An important contribution to future changes in regional sea level <span class="hlt">extremes</span> is due to the changes in intrinsic ocean variability, in particular ocean eddies. Here, we study a scenario of future dynamic sea level (DSL) <span class="hlt">extremes</span> using a high-resolution version of the Parallel Ocean Program and generalized <span class="hlt">extreme</span> value theory. This model is forced with atmospheric fluxes from a coupled climate model which has been integrated under the IPCC-SRES-A1B scenario over the period 2000-2100. Changes in 10-year return time DSL <span class="hlt">extremes</span> are very inhomogeneous over the globe and are related to changes in ocean currents and corresponding regional shifts in ocean eddy pathways. In this scenario, several regions in the North Atlantic experience an increase in mean DSL of up to 0.4 m over the period 2000-2100. DSL <span class="hlt">extremes</span> with a 10-year return time increase up to 0.2 m with largest values in the northern and eastern Atlantic.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/scitech/biblio/1133221','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/scitech/biblio/1133221"><span>The Robust Dynamical Contribution to Precipitation <span class="hlt">Extremes</span> in Idealized <span class="hlt">Warming</span> Simulations across Model Resolutions</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech">SciTech Connect</a></p> <p>Lu, Jian; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Yang, Qing; Chen, Gang; Collins, William D.; Li, Fuyu; Hou, Zhangshuan; Feng, Xuelei</p> <p>2014-04-28</p> <p>The impact of the circulation shift under climate <span class="hlt">warming</span> on the distribution of precipitation <span class="hlt">extremes</span> and the associated sensitivity to model resolution are investigated using the aquaplanet Community Atmosphere Model CAM3. The response of the probability density function of the precipitation to a uniform SST <span class="hlt">warming</span> can be interpreted as superimposition of a dynamically induced poleward shift and a thermodynamically induced upward shift toward higher intensities, which give rise to manyfold increase in the frequency of the most <span class="hlt">extreme</span> categories of the precipitation events at the poleward side of the midlatitude storm track. Meanwhile, the thermodynamic contribution to the intensification of the precipitation <span class="hlt">extremes</span> is substantially less than expected from the Clausius-Clapeyron relation, implicative of significant change in the vertical structure of the precipitation processes. While coarser resolutions underestimate the dynamical contribution to the increase of precipitation <span class="hlt">extremes</span>, a modest increase of the equator-to-pole SST <span class="hlt">warming</span> gradient can have a significant opposite effect.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014GeoRL..41.8847A','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014GeoRL..41.8847A"><span>Global <span class="hlt">warming</span> and changes in risk of concurrent climate <span class="hlt">extremes</span>: Insights from the 2014 California drought</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>AghaKouchak, Amir; Cheng, Linyin; Mazdiyasni, Omid; Farahmand, Alireza</p> <p>2014-12-01</p> <p>Global <span class="hlt">warming</span> and the associated rise in <span class="hlt">extreme</span> temperatures substantially increase the chance of concurrent droughts and heat waves. The 2014 California drought is an archetype of an event characterized by not only low precipitation but also <span class="hlt">extreme</span> high temperatures. From the raging wildfires, to record low storage levels and snowpack conditions, the impacts of this event can be felt throughout California. Wintertime water shortages worry decision-makers the most because it is the season to build up water supplies for the rest of the year. Here we show that the traditional univariate risk assessment methods based on precipitation condition may substantially underestimate the risk of <span class="hlt">extreme</span> events such as the 2014 California drought because of ignoring the effects of temperature. We argue that a multivariate viewpoint is necessary for assessing risk of <span class="hlt">extreme</span> events, especially in a <span class="hlt">warming</span> climate. This study discusses a methodology for assessing the risk of concurrent <span class="hlt">extremes</span> such as droughts and <span class="hlt">extreme</span> temperatures.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015EGUGA..17.7917S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015EGUGA..17.7917S"><span>The Northern Hemisphere <span class="hlt">winter</span> stationary wave response to global <span class="hlt">warming</span> in CMIP5</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Simpson, Isla; Seager, Richard; Ting, Mingfang; Shaw, Tiffany</p> <p>2015-04-01</p> <p>During the Northern Hemisphere <span class="hlt">winter</span>, models tend to predict a poleward shifting of the zonal mean mid-latitude westerlies under anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Locally, however, changes in the stationary waves tend to dominate, resulting in considerable deviation from this around the longitude circle, with important implications for regional climate change. Past studies have demonstrated diversity in the stationary wave response to global <span class="hlt">warming</span> and differ in their views of the mechanisms involved in producing it. Here we will explore the stationary wave response to global <span class="hlt">warming</span> in the CMIP5 dataset and demonstrate a strong consensus on a wavenumber 5 stationary wave response with a particular phasing that contributes to hydroclimate change across North America and Europe, such as wetting on the west coast of the USA, drying in the south west USA and drying in the eastern Mediterranean. The mechanisms responsible for producing this multi-model mean response are explored using a stationary wave model. It is demonstrated that, to first order, it is produced by changes in the zonal mean basic state, in agreement with the majority of previous stationary wave modelling studies. The relative importance of different features of this basic state change such as Arctic amplification, enhanced tropical upper tropospheric <span class="hlt">warming</span>, stratospheric cooling and their associated zonal mean zonal wind responses will be explored. Through an understanding of the mechanisms involved in this stationary wave response we can begin to assess our confidence in whether the real world will behave as the models do and understand any diversity among the modelled responses.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFMPA13B1980K','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFMPA13B1980K"><span>"New Climate" <span class="hlt">Warmed</span>, "New Atmospheric Circulation" and "<span class="hlt">Extreme</span>" Meteorological Phenomena associated with El Niño 2015-2016</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Karrouk, M. S.</p> <p>2016-12-01</p> <p>Cumulating ocean-atmospheric thermal energy caused by global <span class="hlt">warming</span> has resulted in the reversal of the energy balance towards the poles. This situation is characterized by a new ocean-continental thermal distribution: over the ocean, the balance is more in excess than in the mainland, if not the opposite when the balance is negative inland.Thanks to satellite observation and daily monitoring of meteorological conditions for more than ten years, we have observed that the positive balance has shifted more towards the poles, mainly in the northern hemisphere. Subtropical anticyclones are strengthened and have extended to high latitudes, especially over the Atlantic and Pacific oceans. This situation creates global peaks strengthened in <span class="hlt">winter</span> periods, and imposes on cosmic cold the deep advection toward the south under the form of planetary valleys "Polar Vortex".This situation imposes on the jet stream a pronounced ripple and installs a meridional atmospheric circulation in <span class="hlt">winter</span>, which brings the <span class="hlt">warm</span> tropical air masses to reach the Arctic Circle, and cold polar air masses to reach North Africa and Florida.This situation creates unusual atmospheric events, characterized by hydrothermal "<span class="hlt">extreme</span>" conditions: excessive heat at high latitudes, accompanied by heavy rains and floods, as well as cold at low latitudes and the appearance of snow in the Sahara!The populations are profoundly influenced by the new phenomena. The socioeconomic infrastructures can no longer assume their basic functions and man when unprotected is weak and hence the advanced vulnerability of all the regions especially those belonging to poor and developing countriesRecent studies have shown that global and regional climate system is affected by <span class="hlt">extreme</span> events of El Niño. Statistical and dynamic links have been confirmed in Northern Africa and Western Europe; hence the importance of the fall situation and <span class="hlt">winter</span> 2015-2016.These conditions are the consequences of the "New Climate" <span class="hlt">warmed</span></p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23874424','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23874424"><span>Infrared <span class="hlt">warming</span> reduced <span class="hlt">winter</span> wheat yields and some physiological parameters, which were mitigated by irrigation and worsened by delayed sowing.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Fang, Shibo; Su, Hua; Liu, Wei; Tan, Kaiyan; Ren, Sanxue</p> <p>2013-01-01</p> <p><span class="hlt">Winter</span> wheat has a central role in ensuring the food security and welfare of 1.3 billion people in China. Extensive previous studies have concluded that <span class="hlt">winter</span> wheat yields would decrease with higher temperatures, owing to <span class="hlt">warming</span>-induced soil drying or shortening of phenophase. Temperature in China is predicted to increase by 1-5°C by 2100, which may greatly impact plant production and cause other negative effects. We performed a manipulative field experiment, creating diverse growth regimes for wheat by infrared radiation (IR) <span class="hlt">warming</span> day and night, including IR <span class="hlt">warming</span> only (DW), IR <span class="hlt">warming</span> + delayed sowing dates (DS), IR <span class="hlt">warming</span> + increased irrigation (IW), and a control (CK). The results show that IR <span class="hlt">warming</span> increased daily average wheat canopy and soil temperatures by 2.0°C and 2.3°C, respectively. DW was associated with an advanced maturity of 10 days and yield reduction of 8.2%. IR-<span class="hlt">warming</span> effects on the photosynthetic apparatus of wheat varied with season as well as significant differences were found in the booting stage. DS represented a worsened situation, lowering yield per plant by 16.4%, with a significant decline in aboveground biomass and functional leaf area. Wheat under DS showed double-peak patterns of diurnal gas exchange during booting stages and, consequently, lower photosynthetic capacity with high transpiration for cooling. Significantly lower actual water use efficiency and intrinsic water use efficiency from jointing to anthesis stages were also found under DS. However, IW had no significant difference from CK, irrespective of yield and photosynthesis. Therefore, we concluded that delayed sowing date may not be a good choice for <span class="hlt">winter</span> wheat, whereas a thoroughly-watered wheat agroecosystem should be promoted in the context of global <span class="hlt">warming</span>.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3706519','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3706519"><span>Infrared <span class="hlt">Warming</span> Reduced <span class="hlt">Winter</span> Wheat Yields and Some Physiological Parameters, Which Were Mitigated by Irrigation and Worsened by Delayed Sowing</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Fang, Shibo; Su, Hua; Liu, Wei; Tan, Kaiyan; Ren, Sanxue</p> <p>2013-01-01</p> <p><span class="hlt">Winter</span> wheat has a central role in ensuring the food security and welfare of 1.3 billion people in China. Extensive previous studies have concluded that <span class="hlt">winter</span> wheat yields would decrease with higher temperatures, owing to <span class="hlt">warming</span>-induced soil drying or shortening of phenophase. Temperature in China is predicted to increase by 1–5°C by 2100, which may greatly impact plant production and cause other negative effects. We performed a manipulative field experiment, creating diverse growth regimes for wheat by infrared radiation (IR) <span class="hlt">warming</span> day and night, including IR <span class="hlt">warming</span> only (DW), IR <span class="hlt">warming</span> + delayed sowing dates (DS), IR <span class="hlt">warming</span> + increased irrigation (IW), and a control (CK). The results show that IR <span class="hlt">warming</span> increased daily average wheat canopy and soil temperatures by 2.0°C and 2.3°C, respectively. DW was associated with an advanced maturity of 10 days and yield reduction of 8.2%. IR-<span class="hlt">warming</span> effects on the photosynthetic apparatus of wheat varied with season as well as significant differences were found in the booting stage. DS represented a worsened situation, lowering yield per plant by 16.4%, with a significant decline in aboveground biomass and functional leaf area. Wheat under DS showed double-peak patterns of diurnal gas exchange during booting stages and, consequently, lower photosynthetic capacity with high transpiration for cooling. Significantly lower actual water use efficiency and intrinsic water use efficiency from jointing to anthesis stages were also found under DS. However, IW had no significant difference from CK, irrespective of yield and photosynthesis. Therefore, we concluded that delayed sowing date may not be a good choice for <span class="hlt">winter</span> wheat, whereas a thoroughly-watered wheat agroecosystem should be promoted in the context of global <span class="hlt">warming</span>. PMID:23874424</p> </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_6");'>6</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_7");'>7</a></li> <li class="active"><span>8</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_9");'>9</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_10");'>10</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div><!-- col-sm-12 --> </div><!-- row --> </div><!-- page_8 --> <div id="page_9" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_7");'>7</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_8");'>8</a></li> <li class="active"><span>9</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_10");'>10</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_11");'>11</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="161"> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016EGUGA..18.1660Z','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016EGUGA..18.1660Z"><span>Indirect Radiative <span class="hlt">Warming</span> Effect in the <span class="hlt">Winter</span> and Spring Arctic Associated with Aerosol Pollution from Mid-latitude Regions</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Zhao, Chuanfeng; Garrett, Timothy</p> <p>2016-04-01</p> <p>Different from global cooling effects of aerosols and aerosol-cloud interactions, anthropogenic aerosols from mid-latitude are found to play an increased <span class="hlt">warming</span> effect in the Arctic in later <span class="hlt">winter</span> and early spring. Using four-year (2000-2003) observation of aerosol, cloud and radiation at North Slope of Alaska, it is found that the aerosols can increase cloud droplet effective radius 3 um for fixed liquid water path, and increase cloud thermal emissivity about 0.05-0.08. In other words, aerosols are associated with a <span class="hlt">warming</span> of 1-1.6 degrees (3-5 W/m2) in the Arctic during late <span class="hlt">winter</span> and early spring solely due to their first indirect effect. Further analysis indicates that total aerosol climate effects are even more significant (8-10 W/m2), with about 50% contribution from aerosol first indirect effect and another 50% contribution from complicated feedbacks. It also shows strong seasonal distribution of the aerosol indirect radiative effects, with <span class="hlt">warming</span> effects in seasons other than in summer. However, only the significant <span class="hlt">warming</span> effect in <span class="hlt">winter</span> and spring passes through the significance test. The strong <span class="hlt">warming</span> effect due to aerosol indirect effect could be further strengthened through following feedbacks involving the surface albedo (early ice melting).</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70158672','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70158672"><span>Life stage influences the resistance and resilience of black mangrove forests to <span class="hlt">winter</span> climate <span class="hlt">extremes</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a></p> <p>Osland, Michael J.; Day, Richard H.; From, Andrew S.; McCoy, Megan L.; McLeod, Jennie L.; Kelleway, Jeffrey</p> <p>2015-01-01</p> <p>In subtropical coastal wetlands on multiple continents, climate change-induced reductions in the frequency and intensity of freezing temperatures are expected to lead to the expansion of woody plants (i.e., mangrove forests) at the expense of tidal grasslands (i.e., salt marshes). Since some ecosystem goods and services would be affected by mangrove range expansion, there is a need to better understand mangrove sensitivity to freezing temperatures as well as the implications of changing <span class="hlt">winter</span> climate <span class="hlt">extremes</span> for mangrove-salt marsh interactions. In this study, we investigated the following questions: (1) how does plant life stage (i.e., ontogeny) influence the resistance and resilience of black mangrove (Avicennia germinans) forests to freezing temperatures; and (2) how might differential life stage responses to freeze events affect the rate of mangrove expansion and salt marsh displacement due to climate change? To address these questions, we quantified freeze damage and recovery for different life stages (seedling, short tree, and tall tree) following <span class="hlt">extreme</span> <span class="hlt">winter</span> air temperature events that occurred near the northern range limit of A. germinans in North America. We found that life stage affects black mangrove forest resistance and resilience to <span class="hlt">winter</span> climate <span class="hlt">extremes</span> in a nonlinear fashion. Resistance to <span class="hlt">winter</span> climate <span class="hlt">extremes</span> was high for tall A. germinans trees and seedlings, but lowest for short trees. Resilience was highest for tall A. germinans trees. These results suggest the presence of positive feedbacks and indicate that climate-change induced decreases in the frequency and intensity of <span class="hlt">extreme</span> minimum air temperatures could lead to a nonlinear increase in mangrove forest resistance and resilience. This feedback could accelerate future mangrove expansion and salt marsh loss at rates beyond what would be predicted from climate change alone. In general terms, our study highlights the importance of accounting for differential life stage responses and</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=5159872','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=5159872"><span><span class="hlt">Extreme</span> <span class="hlt">warming</span> challenges sentinel status of kelp forests as indicators of climate change</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Reed, Daniel; Washburn, Libe; Rassweiler, Andrew; Miller, Robert; Bell, Tom; Harrer, Shannon</p> <p>2016-01-01</p> <p>The desire to use sentinel species as early warning indicators of impending climate change effects on entire ecosystems is attractive, but we need to verify that such approaches have sound biological foundations. A recent large-scale <span class="hlt">warming</span> event in the North Pacific Ocean of unprecedented magnitude and duration allowed us to evaluate the sentinel status of giant kelp, a coastal foundation species that thrives in cold, nutrient-rich waters and is considered sensitive to <span class="hlt">warming</span>. Here, we show that giant kelp and the majority of species that associate with it did not presage ecosystem effects of <span class="hlt">extreme</span> <span class="hlt">warming</span> off southern California despite giant kelp's expected vulnerability. Our results challenge the general perception that kelp-dominated systems are highly vulnerable to <span class="hlt">extreme</span> <span class="hlt">warming</span> events and expose the more general risk of relying on supposed sentinel species that are assumed to be very sensitive to climate change. PMID:27958273</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27958273','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27958273"><span><span class="hlt">Extreme</span> <span class="hlt">warming</span> challenges sentinel status of kelp forests as indicators of climate change.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Reed, Daniel; Washburn, Libe; Rassweiler, Andrew; Miller, Robert; Bell, Tom; Harrer, Shannon</p> <p>2016-12-13</p> <p>The desire to use sentinel species as early warning indicators of impending climate change effects on entire ecosystems is attractive, but we need to verify that such approaches have sound biological foundations. A recent large-scale <span class="hlt">warming</span> event in the North Pacific Ocean of unprecedented magnitude and duration allowed us to evaluate the sentinel status of giant kelp, a coastal foundation species that thrives in cold, nutrient-rich waters and is considered sensitive to <span class="hlt">warming</span>. Here, we show that giant kelp and the majority of species that associate with it did not presage ecosystem effects of <span class="hlt">extreme</span> <span class="hlt">warming</span> off southern California despite giant kelp's expected vulnerability. Our results challenge the general perception that kelp-dominated systems are highly vulnerable to <span class="hlt">extreme</span> <span class="hlt">warming</span> events and expose the more general risk of relying on supposed sentinel species that are assumed to be very sensitive to climate change.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016NatCo...713757R','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016NatCo...713757R"><span><span class="hlt">Extreme</span> <span class="hlt">warming</span> challenges sentinel status of kelp forests as indicators of climate change</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Reed, Daniel; Washburn, Libe; Rassweiler, Andrew; Miller, Robert; Bell, Tom; Harrer, Shannon</p> <p>2016-12-01</p> <p>The desire to use sentinel species as early warning indicators of impending climate change effects on entire ecosystems is attractive, but we need to verify that such approaches have sound biological foundations. A recent large-scale <span class="hlt">warming</span> event in the North Pacific Ocean of unprecedented magnitude and duration allowed us to evaluate the sentinel status of giant kelp, a coastal foundation species that thrives in cold, nutrient-rich waters and is considered sensitive to <span class="hlt">warming</span>. Here, we show that giant kelp and the majority of species that associate with it did not presage ecosystem effects of <span class="hlt">extreme</span> <span class="hlt">warming</span> off southern California despite giant kelp's expected vulnerability. Our results challenge the general perception that kelp-dominated systems are highly vulnerable to <span class="hlt">extreme</span> <span class="hlt">warming</span> events and expose the more general risk of relying on supposed sentinel species that are assumed to be very sensitive to climate change.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012AGUFMGC44B..05C','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012AGUFMGC44B..05C"><span>Has Anthropogenic Global <span class="hlt">Warming</span> in the Arctic Contributed to Colder <span class="hlt">Winter</span> Weather in the Northern Hemisphere Mid-latitudes?</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Cohen, J. L.; Furtado, J. C.; Barlow, M. A.; Cherry, J. E.; Alexeev, V. A.</p> <p>2012-12-01</p> <p>The global climate models predict that temperatures will <span class="hlt">warm</span> the greatest in <span class="hlt">winter</span> due to a positive feedback of increased greenhouse gases and a diminished and darker cryosphere. Furthermore, current consensus on global climate change predicts <span class="hlt">warming</span> trends over the NH continents during boreal <span class="hlt">winter</span>. However, recent trends in Northern Hemisphere (NH) seasonal surface temperatures diverge from these projections. For the last two decades or so, NH landmasses have experienced significant <span class="hlt">warming</span> trends for all seasons except <span class="hlt">winter</span>, when large-scale cooling trends exist instead. We propose a mechanism linking Arctic <span class="hlt">warming</span> and <span class="hlt">winter</span> continental cooling. Evidence suggests that summer and autumn Arctic <span class="hlt">warming</span> trends are concurrent with increases in high-latitude moisture and an increase in autumnal Eurasian snow cover, which dynamically induces large-scale wintertime cooling. Understanding this counterintuitive response to radiative <span class="hlt">warming</span> of the climate system has the potential to improve climate predictions at seasonal and longer timescales.a) JAS area-averaged (poleward of 60°N) surface temperature anomalies (°C) from NASA MERRA. b) September area-averaged (poleward of 65°N) Arctic Ocean sea ice coverage (fractional area). c) September - October vertically integrated (700-1000 hPa) and area-averaged (poleward of 60°N) specific humidity (kg m-2). d) October mean snow cover areal extent (106 km2) over the Eurasian continent from observations (black) and ensemble-mean from the historical runs of the CMIP5 model output (brown line). e) The DJF average AO index (standardized). Same-coloured dashed lines in a) - e) represent the linear trend in each index. Trends with double asterisk (**) indicate trends are significant at the p < 0.01 level.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25500451','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25500451"><span>Responses of the photosynthetic apparatus to <span class="hlt">winter</span> conditions in broadleaved evergreen trees growing in <span class="hlt">warm</span> temperate regions of Japan.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Tanaka, Chizuru; Nakano, Takashi; Yamazaki, Jun-Ya; Maruta, Emiko</p> <p>2015-01-01</p> <p>Photosynthetic characteristics of two broadleaved evergreen trees, Quercus myrsinaefolia and Machilus thunbergii, were compared in autumn and <span class="hlt">winter</span>. The irradiance was similar in both seasons, but the air temperature was lower in <span class="hlt">winter</span>. Under the <span class="hlt">winter</span> conditions, net photosynthesis under natural sunlight (Anet) in both species dropped to 4 μmol CO2 m(-2) s(-1), and the quantum yield of photosystem II (PSII) photochemistry in dark-adapted leaves (Fv/Fm) also dropped to 0.60. In both species the maximum carboxylation rates of Rubisco (V(cmax)) decreased, and the amount of Rubisco increased in <span class="hlt">winter</span>. A decline in chlorophyll (Chl) concentration and an increase in the Chl a/b ratio in <span class="hlt">winter</span> resulted in a reduction in the size of the light-harvesting antennae. From measurements of Chl a fluorescence parameters, both the relative fraction and the energy flux rates of thermal dissipation through other non-photochemical processes were markedly elevated in <span class="hlt">winter</span>. The results indicate that the photosynthetic apparatus in broadleaved evergreen species in <span class="hlt">warm</span> temperate regions responds to <span class="hlt">winter</span> through regulatory mechanisms involving the downregulation of light-harvesting and photosynthesis coupled with increased photoprotective thermal energy dissipation to minimize photodamage in <span class="hlt">winter</span>. These mechanisms aid a quick restart of photosynthesis without the development of new leaves in the following spring.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016EGUGA..18.3515K','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016EGUGA..18.3515K"><span>Does <span class="hlt">winter</span> <span class="hlt">warming</span> enhance cold CO2 emission from temperate continental soils?</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Kurganova, Irina; Lopes de Gerenyu, Valentin; Khoroshaev, Dmitry</p> <p>2016-04-01</p> <p> revealed during the early spring FTC. They corresponded to a rapid thawing of frozen soils due to the customary rise of air temperature at the beginning of March. These CO2 emission pulses during early spring contributed between 43% and 70% to the total cold CO2 fluxes from frozen soils ('Ref" and "NoSn" variants). The contribution of spring fluxes from unfrozen soils ("NoFr" treatment) to the total cold CO2 emission was about 25%. Our findings produce evidence that <span class="hlt">winter</span> <span class="hlt">warming</span> in temperate continental regions has resulted in a reduction in the permanent snow pack, an increase in the frequency of freezing-thawing events and can be followed by a prolongation of the period when soils remain frozen. Soil respiration fluxes were greatly reduced owing to an increase in frost stress both for plants and for the soil microbial community. Therefore, <span class="hlt">winter</span> <span class="hlt">warming</span> in temperate continental areas decreases cold CO2 emissions from soils into the atmosphere and is expected thereby to lead to a rise in the annual carbon sink in ecosystems. This study was supported by the Russian Science Foundation (14-14-00625) and the Russian Foundation for Basic Research (project 15-04-05156a).</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFMGC11D1176M','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFMGC11D1176M"><span><span class="hlt">Extreme</span> <span class="hlt">Warming</span> Challenges Sentinel Status of Kelp Forests as Indicators of Climate Change</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Miller, R. J.; Reed, D.; Washburn, L.; Rassweiler, A.; Bell, T. W.; Harrer, S.</p> <p>2016-12-01</p> <p>The ecological effects of global <span class="hlt">warming</span> are expected to be large, but are proving difficult and costly to measure. This has led to a growing interest in using sentinel species as early warning indicators of impending climate change effects on entire ecosystems, raising awareness of the importance of verifying that such conservation shortcuts have sound biological foundations. A recent large-scale <span class="hlt">warming</span> event in the North Pacific Ocean of unprecedented magnitude and duration allowed us to evaluate the sentinel status of giant kelp, a coastal foundation species that thrives in cold, nutrient-rich waters and considered sensitive to <span class="hlt">warming</span>. Here we show that giant kelp did not presage ecosystem effects of <span class="hlt">extreme</span> <span class="hlt">warming</span> off southern California despite its expected vulnerability. Fluctuations in the biomass of giant kelp, understory algae, invertebrates and fish remained within historical ranges despite 34 months of above average temperatures and below average nutrients. Sea stars and sea urchins were exceptions, plummeting due to disease outbreaks linked to the <span class="hlt">warming</span>. Our results challenge the IPCC predictions about the vulnerability of kelp-dominated systems to <span class="hlt">extreme</span> <span class="hlt">warming</span> events and question their use as early indicators of climate change. The resilience of giant kelp to unprecedented <span class="hlt">warming</span> not only questions our understanding of kelp ecology, but exposes the risk of relying on supposed sentinel species that are assumed to be very sensitive to climate change.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016ClDy..tmp..297L','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016ClDy..tmp..297L"><span>How predictable is the <span class="hlt">winter</span> <span class="hlt">extremely</span> cold days over temperate East Asia?</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Luo, Xiao; Wang, Bin</p> <p>2016-07-01</p> <p>Skillful seasonal prediction of the number of <span class="hlt">extremely</span> cold day (NECD) has considerable benefits for climate risk management and economic planning. Yet, predictability of NECD associated with East Asia <span class="hlt">winter</span> monsoon remains largely unexplored. The present work estimates the NECD predictability in temperate East Asia (TEA, 30°-50°N, 110°-140°E) where the current dynamical models exhibit limited prediction skill. We show that about 50 % of the total variance of the NECD in TEA region is likely predictable, which is estimated by using a physics-based empirical (P-E) model with three consequential autumn predictors, i.e., developing El Niño/La Niña, Eurasian Arctic Ocean temperature anomalies, and geopotential height anomalies over northern and eastern Asia. We find that the barotropic geopotential height anomaly over Asia can persist from autumn to <span class="hlt">winter</span>, thereby serving as a predictor for <span class="hlt">winter</span> NECD. Further analysis reveals that the sources of the NECD predictability and the physical basis for prediction of NECD are essentially the same as those for prediction of <span class="hlt">winter</span> mean temperature over the same region. This finding implies that forecasting seasonal mean temperature can provide useful information for prediction of <span class="hlt">extreme</span> cold events. Interpretation of the lead-lag linkages between the three predictors and the predictand is provided for stimulating further studies.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017ClDy...48.2557L','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017ClDy...48.2557L"><span>How predictable is the <span class="hlt">winter</span> <span class="hlt">extremely</span> cold days over temperate East Asia?</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Luo, Xiao; Wang, Bin</p> <p>2017-04-01</p> <p>Skillful seasonal prediction of the number of <span class="hlt">extremely</span> cold day (NECD) has considerable benefits for climate risk management and economic planning. Yet, predictability of NECD associated with East Asia <span class="hlt">winter</span> monsoon remains largely unexplored. The present work estimates the NECD predictability in temperate East Asia (TEA, 30°-50°N, 110°-140°E) where the current dynamical models exhibit limited prediction skill. We show that about 50 % of the total variance of the NECD in TEA region is likely predictable, which is estimated by using a physics-based empirical (P-E) model with three consequential autumn predictors, i.e., developing El Niño/La Niña, Eurasian Arctic Ocean temperature anomalies, and geopotential height anomalies over northern and eastern Asia. We find that the barotropic geopotential height anomaly over Asia can persist from autumn to <span class="hlt">winter</span>, thereby serving as a predictor for <span class="hlt">winter</span> NECD. Further analysis reveals that the sources of the NECD predictability and the physical basis for prediction of NECD are essentially the same as those for prediction of <span class="hlt">winter</span> mean temperature over the same region. This finding implies that forecasting seasonal mean temperature can provide useful information for prediction of <span class="hlt">extreme</span> cold events. Interpretation of the lead-lag linkages between the three predictors and the predictand is provided for stimulating further studies.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFMGC34A..05H','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFMGC34A..05H"><span>Significant Threat to North American forests from Southern Pine Beetle with <span class="hlt">Warming</span> <span class="hlt">Winters</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Horton, R. M.; Lesk, C.; Coffel, E.; D'Amato, A. W.</p> <p>2016-12-01</p> <p>In coming decades, warmer <span class="hlt">winters</span> are likely to lift range constraints on many cold-limited forest insects. Recent unprecedented expansion of the southern pine beetle (SPB, Dendroctonus frontalis) into New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, and Massachusetts in concert with <span class="hlt">warming</span> annual temperature minima highlights the risk that this insect pest poses to the pine forests of the northern United States and Canada under continued climate change. Here we present the first projections of northward expansion in SPB-suitable climates using a statistical bioclimatic range modeling approach and current-generation general circulation model (GCM) output under the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 emissions scenarios. Our results show that by the middle of the 21st century, the climate is likely to be suitable for SPB expansion into vast areas of previously unaffected forests throughout the northeastern United States and into southeastern Canada. This scenario would pose a significant economic and ecological risk to the affected regions, including disruption of local ecosystem services, dramatic shifts in forest structure, and threats to native biodiversity.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22705063','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22705063"><span>Disease transmission in an <span class="hlt">extreme</span> environment: nematode parasites infect reindeer during the Arctic <span class="hlt">winter</span>.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Carlsson, Anja M; Justin Irvine, R; Wilson, Kenneth; Piertney, Stuart B; Halvorsen, Odd; Coulson, Stephen J; Stien, Audun; Albon, Steve D</p> <p>2012-07-01</p> <p>Parasitic nematodes are found in almost all wild vertebrate populations but few studies have investigated these host-parasite relationships in the wild. For parasites with free-living stages, the external environment has a major influence on life-history traits, and development and survival is generally low at sub-zero temperatures. For reindeer that inhabit the high Arctic archipelago of Svalbard, parasite transmission is expected to occur in the summer, due to the <span class="hlt">extreme</span> environmental conditions and the reduced food intake by the host in <span class="hlt">winter</span>. Here we show experimentally that, contrary to most parasitic nematodes, Marshallagia marshalli of Svalbard reindeer is transmitted during the Arctic <span class="hlt">winter</span>. <span class="hlt">Winter</span> transmission was demonstrated by removing parasites in the autumn, using a novel delayed-release anthelmintic bolus, and estimating re-infection rates in reindeer sampled in October, February and April. Larval stages of nematodes were identified using molecular tools, whereas adult stages were identified using microscopy. The abundance of M. marshalli adult worms and L4s increased significantly from October to April, indicating that reindeer were being infected with L3s from the pasture throughout the <span class="hlt">winter</span>. To our knowledge, this study is the first to experimentally demonstrate over-<span class="hlt">winter</span> transmission of a gastro-intestinal nematode parasite in a wild animal. Potential mechanisms associated with this unusual transmission strategy are discussed in light of our knowledge of the life-history traits of this parasite.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016EGUGA..18.9571P','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016EGUGA..18.9571P"><span>The link between convective organization and <span class="hlt">extreme</span> precipitation in a <span class="hlt">warming</span> climate</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Pendergrass, Angeline</p> <p>2016-04-01</p> <p>The rate of increase of <span class="hlt">extreme</span> precipitation in response to global <span class="hlt">warming</span> varies dramatically across simulations of <span class="hlt">warming</span> with different climate models, particularly over the tropical oceans, for reasons that have yet to be established. Here, we propose one possible mechanism: changing organization of convection with climate. Recently, self-organization of convection has been studied in global radiative-convective equilibrium climate model simulations. We analyze a set of 20 simulations forced by fixed SSTs at 2 degree increments from 287 to 307 K with the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5). In these simulations, a transition from unorganized to organized convection occurs at just over 300 K. Precipitation <span class="hlt">extremes</span> increase steadily with <span class="hlt">warming</span> before and after the transition from unorganized to organized states, but at the transition the change in <span class="hlt">extreme</span> precipitation is much larger. We develop a metric for convective organization in conjunction with the characteristics of <span class="hlt">extreme</span> precipitation events (defined as events with precipitation over a percentile threshold of daily rainfall accumulation): the number of events, their area, their lifetime, and their mean rainfall, and use this to explore the connection between <span class="hlt">extreme</span> precipitation and organization. We also apply this metric to CMIP5 simulations to evaluate whether our mechanism has bearing on the range of tropical ocean <span class="hlt">extreme</span> precipitation response across this set of comprehensive climate models.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014CSR....91..211L','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014CSR....91..211L"><span>Effects of Cardamom Mountains on the formation of the <span class="hlt">winter</span> <span class="hlt">warm</span> pool in the gulf of Thailand</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Li, Jiaxun; Zhang, Ren; Ling, Zheng; Bo, Wenbo; Liu, Yuhong</p> <p>2014-12-01</p> <p>A small-scale <span class="hlt">winter</span> <span class="hlt">warm</span> pool covering an area of about 75,000 km2 in the Gulf of Thailand (GoT) was uncovered using a suite of new high resolution satellite observations and historical in situ data. The core temperature of this <span class="hlt">warm</span> pool is about 0.5-0.8 °C higher than that of the surroundings. The <span class="hlt">warm</span> pool exists from the surface to the bottom of the sea. It forms in the first ten days of November, evolves to a mature stage from the mid-November to the early in January, and begins to decay in the mid-January. Our results show the formation of the <span class="hlt">warm</span> pool is well correlated with the Cardamom Mountains on the Indo-China Peninsula. Due to the orographic effect of Cardamom Mountains, the low surface latent heat flux resulting from the wind wake leads to the formation of the <span class="hlt">warm</span> pool in the sea. The interannual variability of the <span class="hlt">warm</span> pool is affected by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) by modulating the strength of northeast monsoon each year. The <span class="hlt">warm</span> pool has a possible implication for the marine ecosystem in the GoT.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFMGC14B..03P','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFMGC14B..03P"><span>Heterogeneous Sensitivity of Tropical Precipitation <span class="hlt">Extremes</span> during Growth and Mature Phases of Atmospheric <span class="hlt">Warming</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Parhi, P.; Giannini, A.; Lall, U.; Gentine, P.</p> <p>2016-12-01</p> <p>Assessing and managing risks posed by climate variability and change is challenging in the tropics, from both a socio-economic and a scientific perspective. Most of the vulnerable countries with a limited climate adaptation capability are in the tropics. However, climate projections, particularly of <span class="hlt">extreme</span> precipitation, are highly uncertain there. The CMIP5 (Coupled Model Inter- comparison Project - Phase 5) inter-model range of <span class="hlt">extreme</span> precipitation sensitivity to the global temperature under climate change is much larger in the tropics as compared to the extra-tropics. It ranges from nearly 0% to greater than 30% across models (O'Gorman 2012). The uncertainty is also large in historical gauge or satellite based observational records. These large uncertainties in the sensitivity of tropical precipitation <span class="hlt">extremes</span> highlight the need to better understand how tropical precipitation <span class="hlt">extremes</span> respond to <span class="hlt">warming</span>. We hypothesize that one of the factors explaining the large uncertainty is due to differing sensitivities during different phases of <span class="hlt">warming</span>. We consider the `growth' and `mature' phases of <span class="hlt">warming</span> under climate variability case- typically associated with an El Niño event. In the remote tropics (away from tropical Pacific Ocean), the response of the precipitation <span class="hlt">extremes</span> during the two phases can be through different pathways: i) a direct and fast changing radiative forcing in an atmospheric column, acting top-down due to the tropospheric <span class="hlt">warming</span>, and/or ii) an indirect effect via changes in surface temperatures, acting bottom-up through surface water and energy fluxes. We also speculate that the insights gained here might be useful in interpreting the large sensitivity under climate change scenarios, since the physical mechanisms during the two <span class="hlt">warming</span> phases under climate variability case, have some correspondence with an increasing and stabilized green house gas emission scenarios.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25255853','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25255853"><span>Are <span class="hlt">winter</span>-active species vulnerable to climate <span class="hlt">warming</span>? A case study with the wintergreen terrestrial orchid, Tipularia discolor.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Marchin, Renée M; Dunn, Robert R; Hoffmann, William A</p> <p>2014-12-01</p> <p>In the eastern United States, <span class="hlt">winter</span> temperature has been increasing nearly twice as fast as summer temperature, but studies of <span class="hlt">warming</span> effects on plants have focused on species that are photosynthetically active in summer. The terrestrial orchid Tipularia discolor is leafless in summer and acquires C primarily in <span class="hlt">winter</span>. The optimum temperature for photosynthesis in T. discolor is higher than the maximum temperature throughout most of its growing season, and therefore growth can be expected to increase with <span class="hlt">warming</span>. Contrary to this hypothesis, experimental <span class="hlt">warming</span> negatively affected reproductive fitness (number of flowering stalks, flowers, fruits) and growth (change in leaf area from 2010 to 2012) in T. discolor. Temperature in June-July was critical for flowering, and mean July temperature greater than 29 °C (i.e., 2.5 °C above ambient) eliminated reproduction. <span class="hlt">Warming</span> of 1.2 °C delayed flowering by an average of 10 days and fruiting by an average of 5 days. <span class="hlt">Warming</span> of 4.4 °C reduced relative growth rates by about 60%, which may have been partially caused by the direct effects of temperature on photosynthesis and respiration. <span class="hlt">Warming</span> indirectly increased vapor pressure deficit (VPD) by 0.2-0.5 kPa, and leaf-to-air VPD over 1.3 kPa restricted stomatal conductance of T. discolor to 10-40% of maximum conductance. These results highlight the need to account for changes in VPD when estimating temperature responses of plant species under future <span class="hlt">warming</span> scenarios. Increasing temperature in the future will likely be an important limiting factor to the distribution of T. discolor, especially along the southern edge of its range.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24015153','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24015153"><span>Response of snow-dependent hydrologic <span class="hlt">extremes</span> to continued global <span class="hlt">warming</span>.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Diffenbaugh, Noah S; Scherer, Martin; Ashfaq, Moetasim</p> <p>2013-04-01</p> <p>Snow accumulation is critical for water availability in the northern hemisphere (1,2), raising concern that global <span class="hlt">warming</span> could have important impacts on natural and human systems in snow-dependent regions (1,3). Although regional hydrologic changes have been observed (e.g., (1,3-5)), the time of emergence of <span class="hlt">extreme</span> changes in snow accumulation and melt remains a key unknown for assessing climate change impacts (3,6,7). We find that the CMIP5 global climate model ensemble exhibits an imminent shift towards low snow years in the northern hemisphere, with areas of western North America, northeastern Europe, and the Greater Himalaya showing the strongest emergence during the near-term decades and at 2°C global <span class="hlt">warming</span>. The occurrence of <span class="hlt">extremely</span> low snow years becomes widespread by the late-21(st) century, as do the occurrence of <span class="hlt">extremely</span> high early-season snowmelt and runoff (implying increasing flood risk), and <span class="hlt">extremely</span> low late-season snowmelt and runoff (implying increasing water stress). Our results suggest that many snow-dependent regions of the northern hemisphere are likely to experience increasing stress from low snow years within the next three decades, and from <span class="hlt">extreme</span> changes in snow-dominated water resources if global <span class="hlt">warming</span> exceeds 2°C above the pre-industrial baseline.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3760585','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3760585"><span>Response of snow-dependent hydrologic <span class="hlt">extremes</span> to continued global <span class="hlt">warming</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Diffenbaugh, Noah S.; Scherer, Martin; Ashfaq, Moetasim</p> <p>2013-01-01</p> <p>Snow accumulation is critical for water availability in the northern hemisphere 1,2, raising concern that global <span class="hlt">warming</span> could have important impacts on natural and human systems in snow-dependent regions 1,3. Although regional hydrologic changes have been observed (e.g., 1,3–5), the time of emergence of <span class="hlt">extreme</span> changes in snow accumulation and melt remains a key unknown for assessing climate change impacts 3,6,7. We find that the CMIP5 global climate model ensemble exhibits an imminent shift towards low snow years in the northern hemisphere, with areas of western North America, northeastern Europe, and the Greater Himalaya showing the strongest emergence during the near-term decades and at 2°C global <span class="hlt">warming</span>. The occurrence of <span class="hlt">extremely</span> low snow years becomes widespread by the late-21st century, as do the occurrence of <span class="hlt">extremely</span> high early-season snowmelt and runoff (implying increasing flood risk), and <span class="hlt">extremely</span> low late-season snowmelt and runoff (implying increasing water stress). Our results suggest that many snow-dependent regions of the northern hemisphere are likely to experience increasing stress from low snow years within the next three decades, and from <span class="hlt">extreme</span> changes in snow-dominated water resources if global <span class="hlt">warming</span> exceeds 2°C above the pre-industrial baseline. PMID:24015153</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20030015490','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20030015490"><span>A Downturn of the Strong <span class="hlt">Winter-Warming</span> Trend In Europe</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Otterman, Joseph; Atlas, Robert; Bungato, Dennis; Koslowsky, Dirk; Wos, Alojzy; Atlas, Robert (Technical Monitor)</p> <p>2002-01-01</p> <p>Surface-air temperatures measured in <span class="hlt">winter</span> at 3 meteorological stations in central Europe rise substantially for most of the second-half of the 20th century. This means shorter <span class="hlt">winter</span>, and longer growing season, which has positive implications for regional agriculture. However, these positive trends stopped in <span class="hlt">winter</span> of 1996, and for the recent 7 years no further climatic amelioration is reported.</p> </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_7");'>7</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_8");'>8</a></li> <li class="active"><span>9</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_10");'>10</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_11");'>11</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div><!-- col-sm-12 --> </div><!-- row --> </div><!-- page_9 --> <div id="page_10" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_8");'>8</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_9");'>9</a></li> <li class="active"><span>10</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_11");'>11</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_12");'>12</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="181"> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27426229','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27426229"><span>Contrasting effects of summer and <span class="hlt">winter</span> <span class="hlt">warming</span> on body mass explain population dynamics in a food-limited Arctic herbivore.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Albon, Steve D; Irvine, R Justin; Halvorsen, Odd; Langvatn, Rolf; Loe, Leif E; Ropstad, Erik; Veiberg, Vebjørn; van der Wal, René; Bjørkvoll, Eirin M; Duff, Elizabeth I; Hansen, Brage B; Lee, Aline M; Tveraa, Torkild; Stien, Audun</p> <p>2017-04-01</p> <p>The cumulative effects of climate <span class="hlt">warming</span> on herbivore vital rates and population dynamics are hard to predict, given that the expected effects differ between seasons. In the Arctic, warmer summers enhance plant growth which should lead to heavier and more fertile individuals in the autumn. Conversely, <span class="hlt">warm</span> spells in <span class="hlt">winter</span> with rainfall (rain-on-snow) can cause 'icing', restricting access to forage, resulting in starvation, lower survival and fecundity. As body condition is a 'barometer' of energy demands relative to energy intake, we explored the causes and consequences of variation in body mass of wild female Svalbard reindeer (Rangifer tarandus platyrhynchus) from 1994 to 2015, a period of marked climate <span class="hlt">warming</span>. Late <span class="hlt">winter</span> (April) body mass explained 88% of the between-year variation in population growth rate, because it strongly influenced reproductive loss, and hence subsequent fecundity (92%), as well as survival (94%) and recruitment (93%). Autumn (October) body mass affected ovulation rates but did not affect fecundity. April body mass showed no long-term trend (coefficient of variation, CV = 8.8%) and was higher following <span class="hlt">warm</span> autumn (October) weather, reflecting delays in <span class="hlt">winter</span> onset, but most strongly, and negatively, related to 'rain-on-snow' events. October body mass (CV = 2.5%) increased over the study due to higher plant productivity in the increasingly <span class="hlt">warm</span> summers. Density-dependent mass change suggested competition for resources in both <span class="hlt">winter</span> and summer but was less pronounced in recent years, despite an increasing population size. While continued climate <span class="hlt">warming</span> is expected to increase the carrying capacity of the high Arctic tundra, it is also likely to cause more frequent icing events. Our analyses suggest that these contrasting effects may cause larger seasonal fluctuations in body mass and vital rates. Overall our findings provide an important 'missing' mechanistic link in the current understanding of the population biology of a</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017OcSci..13..105X','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017OcSci..13..105X"><span>Synoptic fluctuation of the Taiwan <span class="hlt">Warm</span> Current in <span class="hlt">winter</span> on the East China Sea shelf</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Xuan, Jiliang; Huang, Daji; Pohlmann, Thomas; Su, Jian; Mayer, Bernhard; Ding, Ruibin; Zhou, Feng</p> <p>2017-02-01</p> <p>The seasonal mean and synoptic fluctuation of the wintertime Taiwan <span class="hlt">Warm</span> Current (TWC) were investigated using a well-validated finite volume community ocean model. The spatial distribution and dynamics of the synoptic fluctuation were highlighted. The seasonal mean of the wintertime TWC has two branches: an inshore branch between the 30 and 100 m isobaths and an offshore branch between the 100 and 200 m isobaths. The Coriolis term is much larger than the inertia term and is almost balanced by the pressure gradient term in both branches, indicating geostrophic balance of the mean current. Two areas with significant fluctuations of the TWC were identified during wintertime. One of the areas is located to the north of Taiwan with velocities varying in the cross-shore direction. These significant cross-shore fluctuations are driven by barotropic pressure gradients associated with the intrusion of the Taiwan Strait Current (TSC). When a strong TSC intrudes to the north of Taiwan, the isobaric slope tilts downward from south to north, leading to a cross-shore current from the coastal area to the offshore area. When the TSC intrusion is weak, the cross-shore current to the north of Taiwan is directed from offshore to inshore. The other area of significant fluctuation is located in the inshore area between the 30 and 100 m isobaths. The fluctuations are generally strong both in the alongshore and cross-shore directions, in particular at the latitudes 26.5 and 28° N. Wind affects the synoptic fluctuation through episodic events. When the northeasterly monsoon prevails, the southwestward Zhe-Min coastal current dominates the inshore area associated with a deepening of the mixed layer. When the <span class="hlt">winter</span> monsoon is weakened or the southwesterly wind prevails, the northeastward TWC dominates in the inshore area.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28514052','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28514052"><span>Shift in community structure in an early-successional Mediterranean shrubland driven by long-term experimental <span class="hlt">warming</span> and drought and natural <span class="hlt">extreme</span> droughts.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Liu, Daijun; Estiarte, Marc; Ogaya, Romà; Yang, Xiaohong; Peñuelas, Josep</p> <p>2017-10-01</p> <p>Global <span class="hlt">warming</span> and recurring drought are expected to accelerate water limitation for plant communities in semiarid Mediterranean ecosystems and produce directional shifts in structure and composition that are not easily detected, and supporting evidence is scarce. We conducted a long-term (17 years) nocturnal-<span class="hlt">warming</span> (+0.6°C) and drought (-40% rainfall) experiments in an early-successional Mediterranean shrubland to study the changes in community structure and composition, contrasting functional groups and dominant species, and the superimposed effects of natural <span class="hlt">extreme</span> drought. Species richness decreased in both the <span class="hlt">warming</span> and drought treatments. Responses to the moderate <span class="hlt">warming</span> were associated with decreases in herb abundance, and responses to the drought were associated with decreases in both herb and shrub abundances. The drought also significantly decreased community diversity and evenness. Changes in abundance differed between herbs (decreases) and shrubs (increases or no changes). Both <span class="hlt">warming</span> and drought, especially drought, increased the relative species richness and abundance of shrubs, favoring the establishment of shrubs. Both <span class="hlt">warming</span> and drought produced significant shifts in plant community composition. Experimental <span class="hlt">warming</span> shifted the community composition from Erica multiflora toward Rosmarinus officinalis, and drought consistently shifted the composition toward Globularia alypum. The responses in biodiversity (e.g., community biodiversity, changes of functional groups and compositional shifts) were also strongly correlated with atmospheric drought (SPEI) in <span class="hlt">winter</span>-spring and/or summer, indicating sensitivity to water limitation in this early-successional Mediterranean ecosystem, especially to natural <span class="hlt">extreme</span> droughts. Our results suggest that the shifts in species assembles and community diversity and composition are accelerated by the long-term nocturnal-<span class="hlt">warming</span> and drought, combined with natural severe droughts, and that the magnitude of the</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFMNH32A..01F','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFMNH32A..01F"><span>Arctic <span class="hlt">Extremes</span> in 2016: Preview of a 2oC <span class="hlt">Warmed</span> World?</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Francis, J. A.; Cohen, J. L.</p> <p>2016-12-01</p> <p>During the first half of 2016 the Arctic set a number of records: lowest or second-lowest sea-ice extent for each month, highest near-surface air temperature, highest atmospheric water vapor content, least terrestrial spring snow cover, and the warmest spring in Greenland. The difference in <span class="hlt">warming</span> between the Arctic and mid-latitude areas during January-June 2016 also was the largest ever recorded, a phenomenon known as Arctic amplification. Several factors may have triggered these records, such as the waning El Niño providing a <span class="hlt">warming</span> boost, which was then intensified in the Arctic by a variety of reinforcing feedback mechanisms. As the Arctic loses a large fraction of its ice and snow cover - the Earth's "mirror" that reflects solar energy - 2016 will likely be another record <span class="hlt">warm</span> year both for the globe and the Arctic. Accelerated <span class="hlt">warming</span> in the Arctic will further tip its global role from a mirror to an energy sink because Arctic temperatures already hover near the freezing point. Arctic amplification has also been implicated in driving <span class="hlt">extreme</span> weather events in mid-latitude regions. Intense <span class="hlt">warming</span> pulses during 2016 coincided with a variety of weather <span class="hlt">extremes</span>, such as cold spells, intense snow storms, flooding, and spikes in Greenland melt. Coincidence of Arctic <span class="hlt">warm</span> pulses and <span class="hlt">extreme</span> mid-latitude weather is not unique to 2016; other recent years exhibit this relationship, as well. While direct causality is difficult to prove, it is also difficult to imagine that the dramatic observed changes in many aspects of the Arctic system will not affect the global system, and 2016 may provide a preview of impacts to come in a 2oC world.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017ClDy..tmp...81X','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017ClDy..tmp...81X"><span><span class="hlt">Extreme</span> subsurface <span class="hlt">warm</span> events in the South China Sea during 1998/99 and 2006/07: observations and mechanisms</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Xiao, Fuan; Zeng, Lili; Liu, Qin-Yan; Zhou, Wen; Wang, Dongxiao</p> <p>2017-03-01</p> <p>Conductivity-temperature-depth observations, objectively analyzed data, and model output are used to investigate the variability of subsurface temperature in the South China Sea (SCS) during 1948-2010. Two <span class="hlt">extreme</span> subsurface <span class="hlt">warm</span> events are identified during 1998/99 and 2006/07, with no corresponding <span class="hlt">extreme</span> surface <span class="hlt">warming</span> except in 1998. Mixed-layer heat budget analysis reveals that the lack of significant heat input from surface net heat flux or from current advection is responsible for the absence of <span class="hlt">extreme</span> surface <span class="hlt">warming</span> during 1999, and 2006/07. The surface net heat flux alone cannot explain the first phases of subsurface <span class="hlt">warming</span> during 1998/99 and 2006/07. <span class="hlt">Warm</span> advection from the southern SCS in 1998/99 and from the Kuroshio intrusion in 2006/07, induced by anomalous ocean currents, is likely the major contributor to <span class="hlt">warming</span> of the subsurface water. During the second phase of <span class="hlt">warming</span>, the surface net heat flux plays a damping role to cool the subsurface water, and the <span class="hlt">warm</span> advection induced by anomalous SCS western boundary currents from the southern SCS leads to <span class="hlt">extremely</span> <span class="hlt">warm</span> subsurface water anomalies. The results show the importance of the Pacific western boundary currents, especially the Kuroshio, in maintaining <span class="hlt">extreme</span> subsurface <span class="hlt">warm</span> events in the SCS.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014EGUGA..16.7084M','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014EGUGA..16.7084M"><span>Arctic sea ice loss and recent <span class="hlt">extreme</span> cold <span class="hlt">winter</span> in Eurasia</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Mori, Masato; Watanabe, Masahiro; Ishii, Masayoshi; Kimoto, Masahide</p> <p>2014-05-01</p> <p><span class="hlt">Extreme</span> cold <span class="hlt">winter</span> over the Eurasia has occurred more frequently in recent years. Observational evidence in recent studies shows that the wintertime cold anomalies over the Eurasia are associated with decline of Arctic sea ice in preceding autumn to <span class="hlt">winter</span> season. However, the tropical and/or mid-latitude sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies have great influence on the mid- and high-latitude atmospheric variability, it is difficult to isolate completely the impacts of sea ice change from observational data. In this study, we examine possible linkage between the Arctic sea ice loss and the <span class="hlt">extreme</span> cold <span class="hlt">winter</span> over the Eurasia using a state-of-the-art MIROC4 (T106L56) atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) to assess the pure atmospheric responses to sea ice reduction. We perform two sets of experiments with different realistic sea ice boundary conditions calculated by composite of observed sea ice concentration; one is reduced sea ice extent case (referred to as LICE run) and another is enhanced case (HICE run). In both experiments, the model is integrated 6-month from September to February with 100-member ensemble under the climatological SST boundary condition. The difference in ensemble mean of each experiment (LICE minus HICE) shows cold anomalies over the Eurasia in <span class="hlt">winter</span> and its spatial pattern is very similar to corresponding observation, though the magnitude is smaller than observation. This result indicates that a part of observed cold anomaly can be attributed to the Arctic sea ice loss. We would like to introduce more important results and mechanisms in detail in my presentation.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017EGUGA..1912837W','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017EGUGA..1912837W"><span>Spatial and serial clustering of <span class="hlt">extreme</span> European <span class="hlt">winter</span> windstorms and their large scale drivers</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Walz, Michael A.; Befort, Daniel J.; Kirchner-Bossi, Nicolas O.; Ulbrich, Uwe; Leckebusch, Gregor C.</p> <p>2017-04-01</p> <p><span class="hlt">Winter</span> windstorms are amongst the most dangerous and destructive natural hazards in Europe. In order to better comprehend these <span class="hlt">extreme</span> events, particularly the driving mechanisms, their variability in space and time is examined. Windstorm trajectories are extracted from 6-hourly wind speed data of the core <span class="hlt">winter</span> season (DJF) via the objective WTRACK wind tracking algorithm. The spatial clustering is carried out by a probabilistic clustering technique (Gaussian mixture models) which is applied to the windstorm trajectories identified in retrospective seasonal forecast data (ECMWF System 4 covering the years 1983-2014). The 51 ensemble members allow the construction of a broad statistical event base of (artificial) <span class="hlt">extreme</span> storms. Three spatial clusters (SW to NE, W to E and NW to SE progression) can be identified. All three clusters have particulate individual features in terms of intensity, duration or celerity. Serial clustering and large scale drivers of <span class="hlt">winter</span> windstorms are analysed by developing a statistical model relating the <span class="hlt">winter</span> windstorm counts to known teleconnection patterns in Europe (e.g. North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Scandinavian Pattern (SCA)…). The model is established using a step-wise AIC approach which is applied to annual windstorm counts and large scale indices retrieved from the ERA 20C reanalysis. Significant large scale drivers responsible for the inter-annual variability of storms are identified and compared on a regional as well as on grid box level. Additional to the SCA and the NAO which are found to be the key drivers for serial clustering for most regions in the European domain, for example Northern Hemispheric sea ice cover appears as an important driver for the Mediterranean region. The developed statistical model is able to estimate (with satisfactory skill) whether a season is positively or negatively clustered, especially for the British Isles and Scandinavia.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26090931','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26090931"><span>Changes in <span class="hlt">Extremely</span> Hot Summers over the Global Land Area under Various <span class="hlt">Warming</span> Targets.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Wang, Lei; Huang, Jianbin; Luo, Yong; Yao, Yao; Zhao, Zongci</p> <p>2015-01-01</p> <p>Summer temperature <span class="hlt">extremes</span> over the global land area were investigated by comparing 26 models of the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) with observations from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) and the Climate Research Unit (CRU). Monthly data of the observations and models were averaged for each season, and statistics were calculated for individual models before averaging them to obtain ensemble means. The summers with temperature anomalies (relative to 1951-1980) exceeding 3σ (σ is based on the local internal variability) are defined as "<span class="hlt">extremely</span> hot". The models well reproduced the statistical characteristics evolution, and partly captured the spatial distributions of historical summer temperature <span class="hlt">extremes</span>. If the global mean temperature increases 2°C relative to the pre-industrial level, "<span class="hlt">extremely</span> hot" summers are projected to occur over nearly 40% of the land area (multi-model ensemble mean projection). Summers that exceed 5σ <span class="hlt">warming</span> are projected to occur over approximately 10% of the global land area, which were rarely observed during the reference period. Scenarios reaching <span class="hlt">warming</span> levels of 3°C to 5°C were also analyzed. After exceeding the 5°C <span class="hlt">warming</span> target, "<span class="hlt">extremely</span> hot" summers are projected to occur throughout the entire global land area, and summers that exceed 5σ <span class="hlt">warming</span> would become common over 70% of the land area. In addition, the areas affected by "<span class="hlt">extremely</span> hot" summers are expected to rapidly expand by more than 25%/°C as the global mean temperature increases by up to 3°C before slowing to less than 16%/°C as the temperature continues to increase by more than 3°C. The area that experiences summers with <span class="hlt">warming</span> of 5σ or more above the <span class="hlt">warming</span> target of 2°C is likely to maintain rapid expansion of greater than 17%/°C. To reduce the impacts and damage from severely hot summers, the global mean temperature increase should remain low.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4474600','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4474600"><span>Changes in <span class="hlt">Extremely</span> Hot Summers over the Global Land Area under Various <span class="hlt">Warming</span> Targets</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Wang, Lei; Huang, Jianbin; Luo, Yong; Yao, Yao; Zhao, Zongci</p> <p>2015-01-01</p> <p>Summer temperature <span class="hlt">extremes</span> over the global land area were investigated by comparing 26 models of the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) with observations from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) and the Climate Research Unit (CRU). Monthly data of the observations and models were averaged for each season, and statistics were calculated for individual models before averaging them to obtain ensemble means. The summers with temperature anomalies (relative to 1951–1980) exceeding 3σ (σ is based on the local internal variability) are defined as “<span class="hlt">extremely</span> hot”. The models well reproduced the statistical characteristics evolution, and partly captured the spatial distributions of historical summer temperature <span class="hlt">extremes</span>. If the global mean temperature increases 2°C relative to the pre-industrial level, “<span class="hlt">extremely</span> hot” summers are projected to occur over nearly 40% of the land area (multi-model ensemble mean projection). Summers that exceed 5σ <span class="hlt">warming</span> are projected to occur over approximately 10% of the global land area, which were rarely observed during the reference period. Scenarios reaching <span class="hlt">warming</span> levels of 3°C to 5°C were also analyzed. After exceeding the 5°C <span class="hlt">warming</span> target, “<span class="hlt">extremely</span> hot” summers are projected to occur throughout the entire global land area, and summers that exceed 5σ <span class="hlt">warming</span> would become common over 70% of the land area. In addition, the areas affected by “<span class="hlt">extremely</span> hot” summers are expected to rapidly expand by more than 25%/°C as the global mean temperature increases by up to 3°C before slowing to less than 16%/°C as the temperature continues to increase by more than 3°C. The area that experiences summers with <span class="hlt">warming</span> of 5σ or more above the <span class="hlt">warming</span> target of 2°C is likely to maintain rapid expansion of greater than 17%/°C. To reduce the impacts and damage from severely hot summers, the global mean temperature increase should remain low. PMID:26090931</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19690892','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19690892"><span>Net nitrogen mineralization and leaching in response to <span class="hlt">warming</span> and nitrogen deposition in a temperate old field: the importance of <span class="hlt">winter</span> temperature.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Turner, Michelle M; Henry, Hugh A L</p> <p>2010-01-01</p> <p>While climate <span class="hlt">warming</span> can increase plant N availability over the growing season by increasing rates of N mineralization, increased N mineralization over <span class="hlt">winter</span> at a time when plant roots are largely inactive, coupled with an increased frequency of soil freeze-thaw cycles, may increase soil N leaching losses. We examined changes in soil net N mineralization and N leaching in response to <span class="hlt">warming</span> and N addition (6 g m(-2) year(-1)) in a factorial experiment conducted in a temperate old field. We used two <span class="hlt">warming</span> treatments, year-round and <span class="hlt">winter</span>-only <span class="hlt">warming</span>, to isolate the effects of <span class="hlt">winter</span> <span class="hlt">warming</span> on soil N dynamics from the year-round <span class="hlt">warming</span> effects. We estimated net N mineralization using in situ soil cores with resin bags placed at the bottom to catch throughput, and we measured N leaching using lysimeters located below the plant rooting zone at a depth of 50 cm. There were minor effects of <span class="hlt">warming</span> on changes in soil extractable N and resin N in the soil cores over <span class="hlt">winter</span>. Nevertheless, the overall effects of both <span class="hlt">warming</span> and N addition on net N mineralization (the sum of changes in soil extractable N and resin N) were not significant over this period. Likewise, there were no significant treatment effects on the concentration of N in leachate collected below the plant rooting zone. However, in response to <span class="hlt">winter</span> <span class="hlt">warming</span>, net N mineralization over summer was approximately double that of both the ambient and year-round <span class="hlt">warming</span> treatments. This result demonstrates a potentially large and unexpected effect of <span class="hlt">winter</span> <span class="hlt">warming</span> on soil N availability in this old field system.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015EGUGA..1713010G','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015EGUGA..1713010G"><span><span class="hlt">Winter</span> climate <span class="hlt">extremes</span> and their role for priming SOM decomposition under the snow</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Gavazov, Konstantin; Bahn, Michael</p> <p>2015-04-01</p> <p>The central research question of this project is how soil respiration and soil microbial community composition and activity of subalpine grasslands are affected by <span class="hlt">extreme</span> <span class="hlt">winter</span> climate events, such as mid-<span class="hlt">winter</span> snowmelt and subsequent advanced growing season date. In the scope of this talk, focus will be laid on the assumptions that (1) reduced snow cover leads to intensive freeze-thaw cycles in the soil with larger amplitudes of microbial biomass, DOC and soil CO2 production and efflux over the course of <span class="hlt">winter</span>, and shifts peak microbial activity to deeper soil layers with limited and recalcitrant substrate; (2) causes a shift in microbial community composition towards decreased fungal/bacterial ratios; and (3) results in a stronger incorporation of labile C in microbial biomass and more pronounced priming effects of soil organic matter turnover. Our findings indicate that snow removal, induces a strong and immediate negative effect on the physiology of soil microbes, impairing them in their capacity for turnover of SOM in the presence of labile substances (priming). This effect however is transient and soil microbes recover within the same <span class="hlt">winter</span>. The reason for that is that snow removal did not produce any measurable (PLFA) changes in soil microbial community composition. The advanced start of the growing season, as a result of snow removal in mid-<span class="hlt">winter</span>, granted the bacterial part of the microbial community more active in the uptake of labile substrates and the turnover of SOM than the fungal one. This finding is in line with the concept for a seasonal shift towards bacterial-dominated summer microbial community composition and could bring about implications for the plant-microbe competition for resources at the onset of the growing season.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015NatCC...5..132C','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015NatCC...5..132C"><span>Increased frequency of <span class="hlt">extreme</span> La Niña events under greenhouse <span class="hlt">warming</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Cai, Wenju; Wang, Guojian; Santoso, Agus; McPhaden, Michael J.; Wu, Lixin; Jin, Fei-Fei; Timmermann, Axel; Collins, Mat; Vecchi, Gabriel; Lengaigne, Matthieu; England, Matthew H.; Dommenget, Dietmar; Takahashi, Ken; Guilyardi, Eric</p> <p>2015-02-01</p> <p>The El Niño/Southern Oscillation is Earth’s most prominent source of interannual climate variability, alternating irregularly between El Niño and La Niña, and resulting in global disruption of weather patterns, ecosystems, fisheries and agriculture. The 1998-1999 <span class="hlt">extreme</span> La Niña event that followed the 1997-1998 <span class="hlt">extreme</span> El Niño event switched <span class="hlt">extreme</span> El Niño-induced severe droughts to devastating floods in western Pacific countries, and vice versa in the southwestern United States. During <span class="hlt">extreme</span> La Niña events, cold sea surface conditions develop in the central Pacific, creating an enhanced temperature gradient from the Maritime continent to the central Pacific. Recent studies have revealed robust changes in El Niño characteristics in response to simulated future greenhouse <span class="hlt">warming</span>, but how La Niña will change remains unclear. Here we present climate modelling evidence, from simulations conducted for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (ref. ), for a near doubling in the frequency of future <span class="hlt">extreme</span> La Niña events, from one in every 23 years to one in every 13 years. This occurs because projected faster mean <span class="hlt">warming</span> of the Maritime continent than the central Pacific, enhanced upper ocean vertical temperature gradients, and increased frequency of <span class="hlt">extreme</span> El Niño events are conducive to development of the <span class="hlt">extreme</span> La Niña events. Approximately 75% of the increase occurs in years following <span class="hlt">extreme</span> El Niño events, thus projecting more frequent swings between opposite <span class="hlt">extremes</span> from one year to the next.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/scitech/biblio/1055191','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/scitech/biblio/1055191"><span>Response of snow-dependent hydrologic <span class="hlt">extremes</span> to continued global <span class="hlt">warming</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech">SciTech Connect</a></p> <p>Diffenbaugh, Noah; Scherer, Martin; Ashfaq, Moetasim</p> <p>2012-01-01</p> <p>Snow accumulation is critical for water availability in the Northern Hemisphere1,2, raising concern that global <span class="hlt">warming</span> could have important impacts on natural and human systems in snow-dependent regions1,3. Although regional hydrologic changes have been observed (for example, refs 1,3 5), the time of emergence of <span class="hlt">extreme</span> changes in snow accumulation and melt remains a key unknown for assessing climate- change impacts3,6,7. We find that the CMIP5 global climate model ensemble exhibits an imminent shift towards low snow years in the Northern Hemisphere, with areas of western North America, northeastern Europe and the Greater Himalaya showing the strongest emergence during the near- termdecadesandat2 Cglobalwarming.Theoccurrenceof <span class="hlt">extremely</span> low snow years becomes widespread by the late twenty-first century, as do the occurrences of <span class="hlt">extremely</span> high early-season snowmelt and runoff (implying increasing flood risk), and <span class="hlt">extremely</span> low late-season snowmelt and runoff (implying increasing water stress). Our results suggest that many snow-dependent regions of the Northern Hemisphere are likely to experience increasing stress from low snow years within the next three decades, and from <span class="hlt">extreme</span> changes in snow-dominated water resources if global <span class="hlt">warming</span> exceeds 2 C above the pre-industrial baseline.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25294217','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25294217"><span>Reproducing under a <span class="hlt">warming</span> climate: long <span class="hlt">winter</span> flowering and extended flower longevity in the only Mediterranean and maritime Primula.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Aronne, G; Buonanno, M; De Micco, V</p> <p>2015-03-01</p> <p>Under the pressure of global <span class="hlt">warming</span>, general expectations of species migration and evolution of adaptive traits should always be confirmed with species-specific studies. Within this framework, some species can be used as study systems to predict possible consequences of global <span class="hlt">warming</span> also on other relatives. Unlike its mountain congeneric, Primula palinuri Petagn. has endured all the climatic fluctuations since the Pleistocene, while surviving on Mediterranean coastal cliffs. The aim of this work was to investigate the possible evolution of reproductive biological and ecological traits in P. palinuri adaptation to a warmer environment. Data showed that flowering starts in mid-<span class="hlt">winter</span>; single flowers remain open for over a month, changing from pendulous to erect. The number of insects visiting flowers of P. palinuri increases during the flowering season, and pollination reduces flower longevity. Overall, the best pollen performances, in terms of viability and germinability, occur at <span class="hlt">winter</span> temperatures, while pollinator activity prolongs flowering until spring. Moreover, extended longevity of single flowers optimises reproductive success. Both phenotypic plasticity and selective processes might have occurred in P. palinuri. However, we found that reproductive traits of the only Mediterranean Primula remain more associated with cold mountain habitats than <span class="hlt">warm</span> coastal cliffs. Given the rapid trend of climate <span class="hlt">warming</span>, migration and new adaptive processes in P. palinuri are unlikely. Response to past climate <span class="hlt">warming</span> of P. palinuri provides useful indications for future scenarios in other Primula species. © 2014 German Botanical Society and The Royal Botanical Society of the Netherlands.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2011AGUFMGC51E1050C','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2011AGUFMGC51E1050C"><span>Increase of record-breaking temperature and precipitation <span class="hlt">extremes</span> in a <span class="hlt">warming</span> world</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Coumou, D.; Lehmann, J.; Robinson, A.; Rahmstorf, S.</p> <p>2011-12-01</p> <p>The last decade has seen many record-breaking weather events, including severe heat waves, as well as rainfall and drought <span class="hlt">extremes</span>. At the same time, this decade was globally the warmest since accurate measurements started in the 19th century. This raises the question, often asked by public and media directly after the occurrence of a specific <span class="hlt">extreme</span>, whether these <span class="hlt">extremes</span> are related to global <span class="hlt">warming</span>. Here we analyze record-breaking events in the last decade using global gridded datasets of monthly-mean surface temperature and precipitation. We compare the number of observed records with those expected in a stationary climate, for which the simple 1/n relationship holds, with n the number of previous data points (e.g. years). In addition, we develop a first-order theoretical model to quantify the respective contributions of climate change and natural variability to the occurrence of records. World wide the number of monthly heat records is now, on average 5 times larger than expected in a stationary climate. This indicates that record-breaking heat waves lasting for several weeks now have, on average, an 80% chance of being due to climatic <span class="hlt">warming</span>. Some tropical regions including East-Africa, India and Amazonia have seen an even larger increase in the number of record breaking events, pushing the probability that a record event is due to climatic <span class="hlt">warming</span> to more than 90%. The high number of observed records is well explained by a model assuming a linear <span class="hlt">warming</span> over the last 40 years. Precipitation <span class="hlt">extremes</span> are more complex than heat <span class="hlt">extremes</span> as different physical processes associated with global <span class="hlt">warming</span> are likely to affect them. Warmer air can hold more moisture and thus, in principle, enhances <span class="hlt">extremes</span> in both rainfall maxima and minima. Also, changes in wind patterns will affect precipitation and it is expected that dry areas will become drier and wet areas wetter. We show that, globally averaged the number of observed records, both for minima and maxima</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4886685','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4886685"><span>Rapid formation and evolution of an <span class="hlt">extreme</span> haze episode in Northern China during <span class="hlt">winter</span> 2015</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Sun, Yele; Chen, Chen; Zhang, Yingjie; Xu, Weiqi; Zhou, Libo; Cheng, Xueling; Zheng, Haitao; Ji, Dongsheng; Li, Jie; Tang, Xiao; Fu, Pingqing; Wang, Zifa</p> <p>2016-01-01</p> <p>We investigate the rapid formation and evolutionary mechanisms of an <span class="hlt">extremely</span> severe and persistent haze episode that occurred in northern China during <span class="hlt">winter</span> 2015 using comprehensive ground and vertical measurements, along with receptor and dispersion model analysis. Our results indicate that the life cycle of a severe <span class="hlt">winter</span> haze episode typically consists of four stages: (1) rapid formation initiated by sudden changes in meteorological parameters and synchronous increases in most aerosol species, (2) persistent evolution with relatively constant variations in secondary inorganic aerosols and secondary organic aerosols, (3) further evolution associated with fog processing and significantly enhanced sulfate levels, and (4) clearing due to dry, cold north-northwesterly winds. Aerosol composition showed substantial changes during the formation and evolution of the haze episode but was generally dominated by regional secondary aerosols (53–67%). Our results demonstrate the important role of regional transport, largely from the southwest but also from the east, and of coal combustion emissions for <span class="hlt">winter</span> haze formation in Beijing. Also, we observed an important downward mixing pathway during the severe haze in 2015 that can lead to rapid increases in certain aerosol species. PMID:27243909</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014SPIE.9292E..4GM','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014SPIE.9292E..4GM"><span>The study of the special features of <span class="hlt">winter</span> stratospheric <span class="hlt">warming</span> manifestations over Tomsk according to the lidar temperature measurements</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Marichev, V. N.; Samokhvalov, I. V.</p> <p>2014-11-01</p> <p>In the article the lidar observations of the <span class="hlt">winter</span> stratosphere <span class="hlt">warming</span> manifestations of (SW) 2011-13 over Tomsk are considered. In 2010/11 the <span class="hlt">winter</span> <span class="hlt">warming</span> took place in January with insignificant positive temperature deviations from the mean monthly values in its first decade and then two maxima on the 14th and 15th of January at the altitude of 30-40 km with a deviation to 45K. In 2011/12 the beginning of the SW was recorded from lidar measurements on December 26 and lasted for two decades of January. The maximum development of SW was at the end of December 2011 - the first decade of January. The biggest temperature deviations were at the 40-60K level in the height interval of 35-45 km. In 2012/13 the SW began on December 25. The phase of its maximum development fell on the 1-4th of January when the stratopause altitude dropped on 30 km and the maximum temperature deviation from the model at this level reached 70K. In contrast to the first two <span class="hlt">warming</span> (minor), the last was referred to the major type wherein air mass circulation change happened in the upper stratosphere over Tomsk ((http://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/en/met/ag/strat/index.html).).</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012ClDy...39..929H','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012ClDy...39..929H"><span>Characteristics of autumn-<span class="hlt">winter</span> <span class="hlt">extreme</span> precipitation on the Norwegian west coast identified by cluster analysis</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Heikkilä, U.; Sorteberg, A.</p> <p>2012-08-01</p> <p><span class="hlt">Extremely</span> high autumn and <span class="hlt">winter</span> precipitation events on the European west coast are often driven by low-pressure systems in the North Atlantic. Climate projections suggest the number and intensity of these events is likely to increase far more than the mean precipitation. In this study we investigate the autumn-<span class="hlt">winter</span> <span class="hlt">extreme</span> precipitation on the Norwegian west coast and the connection between its spatial distribution and sea level pressure (SLP) patterns using the k-means cluster analysis. We use three relatively high resolved downscalings of one global coupled model: the Arpège global atmospheric model (stretched grid with 35-km horizontal resolution over Norway) and the WRF-downscaled Arpège model (30 and 10-km) for the 30-year periods of 1961-1990 and 2021-2050. The cluster analysis finds three main SLP patterns responsible for <span class="hlt">extreme</span> precipitation in different parts of the country. The SLP patterns found are similar to the NAO positive pattern known to strengthen the westerly flow towards European coast. We then apply the method to investigate future change in <span class="hlt">extreme</span> precipitation. We find an increase in the number of days with <span class="hlt">extreme</span> precipitation of 15, 39 and 35% in the two simulations (Arpège 35-km and WRF 30 and 10-km, respectively). We do not find evidence of a significant change in the frequency of weather patterns between the present and the future periods. Rather, it is the probability of a given weather pattern to cause <span class="hlt">extreme</span> precipitation which is increased in the future, probably due to higher temperatures and an increased moisture content of the air. The WRF model predicts the increase in this probability caused by the most important SLP patterns to be >50%. The Arpège model does not predict such a significant change because the general increase in <span class="hlt">extreme</span> precipitation predicted is smaller, probably due to its coarser resolution over ocean which leads to smoother representation of the low pressure systems.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016EGUGA..1811084S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016EGUGA..1811084S"><span>Impact of radiosonde data over the Arctic ice on forecasting <span class="hlt">winter</span> <span class="hlt">extreme</span> weather over mid latitude</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Sato, Kazutoshi; Inoue, Jun; Yamazaki, Akira; Kim, Joo-hong; Maturilli, Marion; Dethloff, Klaus; Hudson, Stephen</p> <p>2016-04-01</p> <p>In February 2015, the Arctic air outbreak caused <span class="hlt">extreme</span> cold events and heavy snowfall over the mid latitude, in particular over the North America. During the <span class="hlt">winter</span>, special radiosonde observations were made on the Norwegian RV Lance around the north of Svalbard under the N-ICE2015 project. We investigated the impact of the radiosonde data on forecasting of a cold <span class="hlt">extreme</span> event over the eastern North America using the AFES-LETKF experimental ensemble reanalysis version2 (ALERA2) data set. ALERA2 was used as the reference reanalysis (CTL) while the observing-system experiment (OSE) assimilated the same observational data set, except for the radiosonde data obtained by the RV Lance. Using these two reanalysis data as initial values, ensemble forecasting experiments were conducted. Comparing these ensemble forecasts, there were large differences in the position and depth of a predicted tropopause polar vortex. The CTL forecast well predicted the southward intrusion of the polar vortex which pushed a cold air over the eastern North America from the Canadian Archipelago. In the OSE forecast, in contrast, the trough associated with southward intrusion of the polar vortex was weak, which prevented a cold outbreak from Arctic. This result suggested that the radiosonde observations over the central Arctic would improve the skill of weather forecasts during <span class="hlt">winter</span>.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017ClDy..tmp..669R','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017ClDy..tmp..669R"><span>Atmospheric conditions and weather regimes associated with <span class="hlt">extreme</span> <span class="hlt">winter</span> dry spells over the Mediterranean basin</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Raymond, Florian; Ullmann, Albin; Camberlin, Pierre; Oueslati, Boutheina; Drobinski, Philippe</p> <p>2017-09-01</p> <p>Very long dry spell events occurring during <span class="hlt">winter</span> are natural hazards to which the Mediterranean region is <span class="hlt">extremely</span> vulnerable, because they can lead numerous impacts for environment and society. Four dry spell patterns have been identified in a previous work. Identifying the main associated atmospheric conditions controlling the dry spell patterns is key to better understand their dynamics and their evolution in a changing climate. Except for the Levant region, the dry spells are generally associated with anticyclonic blocking conditions located about 1000 km to the Northwest of the affected area. These anticyclonic conditions are favourable to dry spell occurrence as they are associated with subsidence of cold and dry air coming from boreal latitudes which bring low amount of water vapour and non saturated air masses, leading to clear sky and absence of precipitation. These <span class="hlt">extreme</span> dry spells are also partly related to the classical four Euro-Atlantic weather regimes are: the two phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation, the Scandinavian "blocking" or "East-Atlantic", and the "Atlantic ridge". Only the The "East-Atlantic", "Atlantic ridge" and the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation are frequently associated with <span class="hlt">extremes</span> dry spells over the Mediterranean basin but they do not impact the four dry spell patterns equally. Finally long sequences of those weather regimes are more favourable to <span class="hlt">extreme</span> dry spells than short sequences. These long sequences are associated with the favourable prolonged and reinforced anticyclonic conditions</p> </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_8");'>8</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_9");'>9</a></li> <li class="active"><span>10</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_11");'>11</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_12");'>12</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div><!-- col-sm-12 --> </div><!-- row --> </div><!-- page_10 --> <div id="page_11" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_9");'>9</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_10");'>10</a></li> <li class="active"><span>11</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_12");'>12</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_13");'>13</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="201"> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/scitech/biblio/1023285','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/scitech/biblio/1023285"><span>Intensity, duration, and frequency of precipitation <span class="hlt">extremes</span> under 21st-century <span class="hlt">warming</span> scenarios</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech">SciTech Connect</a></p> <p>Kao, Shih-Chieh; Ganguly, Auroop R</p> <p>2011-01-01</p> <p>Recent research on the projection of precipitation <span class="hlt">extremes</span> has either focused on conceptual physical mechanisms that generate heavy precipitation or rigorous statistical methods that extrapolate tail behavior. However, informing both climate prediction and impact assessment requires concurrent physically and statistically oriented analysis. A combined examination of climate model simulations and observation-based reanalysis data sets suggests more intense and frequent precipitation <span class="hlt">extremes</span> under 21st-century <span class="hlt">warming</span> scenarios. Utilization of statistical <span class="hlt">extreme</span> value theory and resampling-based uncertainty quantification combined with consideration of the Clausius-Clapeyron relationship reveals consistently intensifying trends for precipitation <span class="hlt">extremes</span> at a global-average scale. However, regional and decadal analyses reveal specific discrepancies in the physical mechanisms governing precipitation <span class="hlt">extremes</span>, as well as their statistical trends, especially in the tropics. The intensifying trend of precipitation <span class="hlt">extremes</span> has quantifiable impacts on intensity-duration-frequency curves, which in turn have direct implications for hydraulic engineering design and water-resources management. The larger uncertainties at regional and decadal scales suggest the need for caution during regional-scale adaptation or preparedness decisions. Future research needs to explore the possibility of uncertainty reduction through higher resolution global climate models, statistical or dynamical downscaling, as well as improved understanding of precipitation <span class="hlt">extremes</span> processes.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20403836','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20403836"><span>Recent and future <span class="hlt">warm</span> <span class="hlt">extreme</span> events and high-mountain slope stability.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Huggel, C; Salzmann, N; Allen, S; Caplan-Auerbach, J; Fischer, L; Haeberli, W; Larsen, C; Schneider, D; Wessels, R</p> <p>2010-05-28</p> <p>The number of large slope failures in some high-mountain regions such as the European Alps has increased during the past two to three decades. There is concern that recent climate change is driving this increase in slope failures, thus possibly further exacerbating the hazard in the future. Although the effects of a gradual temperature rise on glaciers and permafrost have been extensively studied, the impacts of short-term, unusually <span class="hlt">warm</span> temperature increases on slope stability in high mountains remain largely unexplored. We describe several large slope failures in rock and ice in recent years in Alaska, New Zealand and the European Alps, and analyse weather patterns in the days and weeks before the failures. Although we did not find one general temperature pattern, all the failures were preceded by unusually <span class="hlt">warm</span> periods; some happened immediately after temperatures suddenly dropped to freezing. We assessed the frequency of <span class="hlt">warm</span> <span class="hlt">extremes</span> in the future by analysing eight regional climate models from the recently completed European Union programme ENSEMBLES for the central Swiss Alps. The models show an increase in the higher frequency of high-temperature events for the period 2001-2050 compared with a 1951-2000 reference period. <span class="hlt">Warm</span> events lasting 5, 10 and 30 days are projected to increase by about 1.5-4 times by 2050 and in some models by up to 10 times. <span class="hlt">Warm</span> <span class="hlt">extremes</span> can trigger large landslides in temperature-sensitive high mountains by enhancing the production of water by melt of snow and ice, and by rapid thaw. Although these processes reduce slope strength, they must be considered within the local geological, glaciological and topographic context of a slope.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017NatCC...7..412K','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017NatCC...7..412K"><span>Australian climate <span class="hlt">extremes</span> at 1.5 °C and 2 °C of global <span class="hlt">warming</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>King, Andrew D.; Karoly, David J.; Henley, Benjamin J.</p> <p>2017-06-01</p> <p>To avoid more severe impacts from climate change, there is international agreement to strive to limit <span class="hlt">warming</span> to below 1.5 °C. However, there is a lack of literature assessing climate change at 1.5 °C and the potential benefits in terms of reduced frequency of <span class="hlt">extreme</span> events. Here, we demonstrate that existing model simulations provide a basis for rapid and rigorous analysis of the effects of different levels of <span class="hlt">warming</span> on large-scale climate <span class="hlt">extremes</span>, using Australia as a case study. We show that limiting <span class="hlt">warming</span> to 1.5 °C, relative to 2 °C, would perceptibly reduce the frequency of <span class="hlt">extreme</span> heat events in Australia. The Australian continent experiences a variety of high-impact climate <span class="hlt">extremes</span> that result in loss of life, and economic and environmental damage. Events similar to the record-hot summer of 2012-2013 and <span class="hlt">warm</span> seas associated with bleaching of the Great Barrier Reef in 2016 would be substantially less likely, by about 25% in both cases, if <span class="hlt">warming</span> is kept to lower levels. The benefits of limiting <span class="hlt">warming</span> on hydrometeorological <span class="hlt">extremes</span> are less clear. This study provides a framework for analysing climate <span class="hlt">extremes</span> at 1.5 °C global <span class="hlt">warming</span>.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016EGUGA..1815300M','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016EGUGA..1815300M"><span>Attributing <span class="hlt">extreme</span> precipitation in the Black Sea region to sea surface <span class="hlt">warming</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Meredith, Edmund; Semenov, Vladimir; Maraun, Douglas; Park, Wonsun; Chernokulsky, Alexander</p> <p>2016-04-01</p> <p>Higher sea surface temperatures (SSTs) <span class="hlt">warm</span> and moisten the overlying atmosphere, increasing the low-level atmospheric instability, the moisture available to precipitating systems and, hence, the potential for intense convective systems. Both the Mediterranean and Black Sea regions have seen a steady increase in summertime SSTs since the early 1980s, by over 2 K in places. This raises the question of how this SST increase has affected convective precipitation <span class="hlt">extremes</span> in the region, and through which mechanisms any effects are manifested. In particular, the Black Sea town of Krymsk suffered an unprecedented precipitation <span class="hlt">extreme</span> in July 2012, which may have been influenced by Black Sea <span class="hlt">warming</span>, causing over 170 deaths. To address this question, we adopt two distinct modelling approaches to event attribution and compare their relative merits. In the first, we use the traditional probabilistic event attribution approach involving global climate model ensembles representative of the present and a counterfactual past climate where regional SSTs have not increased. In the second, we use the conditional event attribution approach, taking the 2012 Krymsk precipitation <span class="hlt">extreme</span> as a showcase example. Under the second approach, we carry out ensemble sensitivity experiments of the Krymsk event at convection-permitting resolution with the WRF regional model, and test the sensitivity of the event to a range of SST forcings. Both experiments show the crucial role of recent Black Sea <span class="hlt">warming</span> in amplifying the 2012 Krymsk precipitation <span class="hlt">extreme</span>. In the conditional event attribution approach, though, the explicit simulation of convective processes provides detailed insight into the physical mechanisms behind the <span class="hlt">extremeness</span> of the event, revealing the dominant role of dynamical (i.e. static stability and vertical motions) over thermodynamical (i.e. increased atmospheric moisture) changes. Additionally, the wide range of SST states tested in the regional setup, which would be</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014AGUFMGC54A..03S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014AGUFMGC54A..03S"><span>Changes in Large Spatiotemporal Climatic <span class="hlt">Extreme</span> Events Beyond the Mean <span class="hlt">Warming</span> Signal</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Sippel, S.; Mahecha, M. D.; Otto, F. E. L.</p> <p>2014-12-01</p> <p>Weather and climate <span class="hlt">extremes</span> impose substantial impacts on human societies and ecosystems. In particular, events that are large in space (areal extent), time (duration) or both are likely to be associated with highly significant consequences. Hence, a better detection, characterization and understanding of such anomalous events is crucial. There is widespread consensus on a global and continental-scale <span class="hlt">warming</span> trend, which leads to increases in the number, magnitude and frequency of temperature <span class="hlt">extremes</span> (Hansen et al., 2012). It is less clear, however, if this <span class="hlt">warming</span> also coincides with a broadening of temperature distributions (Huntingford et al., 2013). Moreover, the question whether other climate variables, such as large-scale precipitation deficits, likewise change, remains largely unanswered (Sheffield et al., 2012; Seneviratne 2012). In this study, we address this issue by investigating the characteristics of large <span class="hlt">extremes</span>, using an algorithm that detects the n largest spatiotemporally connected climate <span class="hlt">extremes</span> for any time period. The deployed algorithm detects, depending on the chosen time step and variable, major heat waves, cold spells or droughts. We find a robust increase in the magnitude of large hot temperature <span class="hlt">extremes</span> on a global and European scale in observations and reanalysis products, whereas the duration and affected area of those <span class="hlt">extremes</span> does not show any pronounced changes. These results reveal that there is a detectable signal in temperature distributions beyond the mean <span class="hlt">warming</span> trend, which might imply a structural change in the making of large <span class="hlt">extreme</span> events. Furthermore, we use the CMIP5 ensemble of models and an ensemble of 100+ members of a regional climate model for Europe (HadRM3P within the weather@home framework[1]) in order to conduct a global and continental-scale analysis of large <span class="hlt">extreme</span> events in temperature and precipitation. The employment of those model ensembles allows to sample more reliably the tails of the</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3867089','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3867089"><span>Soccer-Specific <span class="hlt">Warm</span>-Up and Lower <span class="hlt">Extremity</span> Injury Rates in Collegiate Male Soccer Players</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Grooms, Dustin R.; Palmer, Thomas; Onate, James A.; Myer, Gregory D.; Grindstaff, Terry</p> <p>2013-01-01</p> <p>Context: A number of comprehensive injury-prevention programs have demonstrated injury risk-reduction effects but have had limited adoption across athletic settings. This may be due to program noncompliance, minimal exercise supervision, lack of exercise progression, and sport specificity. A soccer-specific program described as the F-MARC 11+ was developed by an expert group in association with the Federation Internationale de Football Association (FIFA) Medical Assessment and Research Centre (F-MARC) to require minimal equipment and implementation as part of regular soccer training. The F-MARC 11+ has been shown to reduce injury risk in youth female soccer players but has not been evaluated in an American male collegiate population. Objective: To investigate the effects of a soccer-specific <span class="hlt">warm</span>-up program (F-MARC 11+) on lower <span class="hlt">extremity</span> injury incidence in male collegiate soccer players. Design: Cohort study. Setting: One American collegiate soccer team followed for 2 seasons. Patients or Other Participants: Forty-one male collegiate athletes aged 18–25 years. Intervention(s): The F-MARC 11+ program is a comprehensive <span class="hlt">warm</span>-up program targeting muscular strength, body kinesthetic awareness, and neuromuscular control during static and dynamic movements. Training sessions and program progression were monitored by a certified athletic trainer. Main Outcome Measure(s): Lower <span class="hlt">extremity</span> injury risk and time lost to lower <span class="hlt">extremity</span> injury. Results: The injury rate in the referent season was 8.1 injuries per 1000 exposures with 291 days lost and 2.2 injuries per 1000 exposures and 52 days lost in the intervention season. The intervention season had reductions in the relative risk (RR) of lower <span class="hlt">extremity</span> injury of 72% (RR = 0.28, 95% confidence interval = 0.09, 0.85) and time lost to lower <span class="hlt">extremity</span> injury (P < .01). Conclusions: This F-MARC 11+ program reduced overall risk and severity of lower <span class="hlt">extremity</span> injury compared with controls in collegiate-aged male soccer</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFM.A13A0291L','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFM.A13A0291L"><span>The dynamical signature on the change of hydrological <span class="hlt">extremes</span> under global <span class="hlt">warming</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Lu, J.; Gao, Y.; Leung, L. R.; Chen, G.; Yang, Q.</p> <p>2015-12-01</p> <p>The increased water vapor content due to climate <span class="hlt">warming</span> can impact the global hydrological cycle not only by the direct thermodynamic effect constrained by the Clausius-Clapeyron relation, but also impinging on features of circulation through coupling with the atmospheric dynamics. Through implementing the concept of finite-amplitude wave activity (FAWA) and its three-dimensional extension to local FAWA, the increase of the hydrological <span class="hlt">extremes</span> manifested in terms of FAWA under climate change scenario RCP8.5 can be decomposed into the part due to the background increase of moisture (scaled with the temperature <span class="hlt">warming</span>, thus representing thermodynamical effect) and the part due to the change of waviness of the contours of moisture (representing the dynamical factor). It is found that the both thermodynamical increase of moisture and the change of the waviness project on to the enhancement of the climatological pattern of the FAWA associated with the poleward moisture intrusion (Am). Whereas, the change of the FAWA associated with the dry air intrusion (Ad) is characterized by both an enhancement of the background pattern and a poleward expansion thereof, the latter arising from the poleward shift of the wavy motion. This result may serve as a rationale for why both dry and wet <span class="hlt">extremes</span> will become more frequent while the time mean temperature and water vapor increase under global <span class="hlt">warming</span>. The relative contributions to the response of the waviness in the moisture distribution from the stationary wave versus the transient waves will also be examined.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017PNAS..114.4881D','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017PNAS..114.4881D"><span>Quantifying the influence of global <span class="hlt">warming</span> on unprecedented <span class="hlt">extreme</span> climate events</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Diffenbaugh, Noah S.; Singh, Deepti; Mankin, Justin S.; Horton, Daniel E.; Swain, Daniel L.; Touma, Danielle; Charland, Allison; Liu, Yunjie; Haugen, Matz; Tsiang, Michael; Rajaratnam, Bala</p> <p>2017-05-01</p> <p>Efforts to understand the influence of historical global <span class="hlt">warming</span> on individual <span class="hlt">extreme</span> climate events have increased over the past decade. However, despite substantial progress, events that are unprecedented in the local observational record remain a persistent challenge. Leveraging observations and a large climate model ensemble, we quantify uncertainty in the influence of global <span class="hlt">warming</span> on the severity and probability of the historically hottest month, hottest day, driest year, and wettest 5-d period for different areas of the globe. We find that historical <span class="hlt">warming</span> has increased the severity and probability of the hottest month and hottest day of the year at >80% of the available observational area. Our framework also suggests that the historical climate forcing has increased the probability of the driest year and wettest 5-d period at 57% and 41% of the observed area, respectively, although we note important caveats. For the most protracted hot and dry events, the strongest and most widespread contributions of anthropogenic climate forcing occur in the tropics, including increases in probability of at least a factor of 4 for the hottest month and at least a factor of 2 for the driest year. We also demonstrate the ability of our framework to systematically evaluate the role of dynamic and thermodynamic factors such as atmospheric circulation patterns and atmospheric water vapor, and find <span class="hlt">extremely</span> high statistical confidence that anthropogenic forcing increased the probability of record-low Arctic sea ice extent.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28439005','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28439005"><span>Quantifying the influence of global <span class="hlt">warming</span> on unprecedented <span class="hlt">extreme</span> climate events.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Diffenbaugh, Noah S; Singh, Deepti; Mankin, Justin S; Horton, Daniel E; Swain, Daniel L; Touma, Danielle; Charland, Allison; Liu, Yunjie; Haugen, Matz; Tsiang, Michael; Rajaratnam, Bala</p> <p>2017-05-09</p> <p>Efforts to understand the influence of historical global <span class="hlt">warming</span> on individual <span class="hlt">extreme</span> climate events have increased over the past decade. However, despite substantial progress, events that are unprecedented in the local observational record remain a persistent challenge. Leveraging observations and a large climate model ensemble, we quantify uncertainty in the influence of global <span class="hlt">warming</span> on the severity and probability of the historically hottest month, hottest day, driest year, and wettest 5-d period for different areas of the globe. We find that historical <span class="hlt">warming</span> has increased the severity and probability of the hottest month and hottest day of the year at >80% of the available observational area. Our framework also suggests that the historical climate forcing has increased the probability of the driest year and wettest 5-d period at 57% and 41% of the observed area, respectively, although we note important caveats. For the most protracted hot and dry events, the strongest and most widespread contributions of anthropogenic climate forcing occur in the tropics, including increases in probability of at least a factor of 4 for the hottest month and at least a factor of 2 for the driest year. We also demonstrate the ability of our framework to systematically evaluate the role of dynamic and thermodynamic factors such as atmospheric circulation patterns and atmospheric water vapor, and find <span class="hlt">extremely</span> high statistical confidence that anthropogenic forcing increased the probability of record-low Arctic sea ice extent.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=5441735','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=5441735"><span>Quantifying the influence of global <span class="hlt">warming</span> on unprecedented <span class="hlt">extreme</span> climate events</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Singh, Deepti; Horton, Daniel E.; Swain, Daniel L.; Touma, Danielle; Charland, Allison; Liu, Yunjie; Haugen, Matz; Tsiang, Michael; Rajaratnam, Bala</p> <p>2017-01-01</p> <p>Efforts to understand the influence of historical global <span class="hlt">warming</span> on individual <span class="hlt">extreme</span> climate events have increased over the past decade. However, despite substantial progress, events that are unprecedented in the local observational record remain a persistent challenge. Leveraging observations and a large climate model ensemble, we quantify uncertainty in the influence of global <span class="hlt">warming</span> on the severity and probability of the historically hottest month, hottest day, driest year, and wettest 5-d period for different areas of the globe. We find that historical <span class="hlt">warming</span> has increased the severity and probability of the hottest month and hottest day of the year at >80% of the available observational area. Our framework also suggests that the historical climate forcing has increased the probability of the driest year and wettest 5-d period at 57% and 41% of the observed area, respectively, although we note important caveats. For the most protracted hot and dry events, the strongest and most widespread contributions of anthropogenic climate forcing occur in the tropics, including increases in probability of at least a factor of 4 for the hottest month and at least a factor of 2 for the driest year. We also demonstrate the ability of our framework to systematically evaluate the role of dynamic and thermodynamic factors such as atmospheric circulation patterns and atmospheric water vapor, and find <span class="hlt">extremely</span> high statistical confidence that anthropogenic forcing increased the probability of record-low Arctic sea ice extent. PMID:28439005</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFM.A54C..03Z','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFM.A54C..03Z"><span>The influence of atmospheric blocking on <span class="hlt">extreme</span> <span class="hlt">winter</span> minimum temperatures in North America</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Zwiers, F. W.; Whan, K.</p> <p>2015-12-01</p> <p>Regional climate models (RCMs) are the primary source of high-resolution climate projections and it is of crucial importance to evaluate their ability to simulate <span class="hlt">extreme</span> events under current climate conditions. Many <span class="hlt">extreme</span> events are influenced by circulation features that occur outside, or on the edges of, RCM domains. Thus it is of interest to knowwhether such dynamically controlled aspects of <span class="hlt">extremes</span> are well represented by RCMs. This study assesses the relationship between upstream blocking and cold temperature <span class="hlt">extremes</span> over North America in observations, reanalysis products (ERA-Interim, NARR) and RCMs (CanRCM4, CRCM5, HIRHAM5, RCA4).Generalized <span class="hlt">extreme</span> value distributions were fitted to <span class="hlt">winter</span> minimum temperature (TNn) incorporating blocking frequency (BF) as a covariate, which has a significant influence on TNn. The magnitude of blocking influence in the RCMs is consistent with observations but the spatial extent varies. CRCM5 and HIRHAM5 reproduce the pattern of influence best compared to observations. CanRCM4 and RCA4 capture the influence of blocking in British Columbia and the northeastern United States but the extension of influence that is seen in observations and reanalysis, into the southern United States is not evident. The difference in the 20-year return value (20RV) of TNn between high and low BF indicates thatblocking is associated with a decrease of up to 15°C in the 20RV over the majority of the United States and in western Canada. In northern North America the difference in the 20RV is positive as blocking is associated with warmer temperatures. The 20RVs are generally simulated well by the RCMs.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014AGUFMOS23C1236G','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014AGUFMOS23C1236G"><span>Impact of the <span class="hlt">Extreme</span> <span class="hlt">Warming</span> of 2012 on Shelfbreak Frontal Structure North of Cape Hatteras</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Gawarkiewickz, G.</p> <p>2014-12-01</p> <p>Continental shelf circulation north of Cape Hatteras is complex, with southward flowing Middle Atlantic Bight shelf water intersecting the Gulf Stream and subducting offshore into the Gulf Stream. In May, 2012, a cruise was conducted in order to study the shelf circulation and acoustic propagation through fish schools in the area. An important aspect of the study was to use Autonomous Underwater Vehicles to map fish schools with a sidescan sonar. High-resolution hydrographic surveys to map the continental shelf water masses and shelfbreak frontal structure were sampled to relate oceanographic conditions to the fish school distributions. The cold pool water mass over the continental shelf in May 2012 was <span class="hlt">extremely</span> <span class="hlt">warm</span>, with temperature anomalies of up to 5 Degrees C relative to observations from the same area in May, 1996. The normal cross-shelf temperature gradients within the shelfbreak front were not present because of the <span class="hlt">warming</span>. As a result, the shelf density field was much more buoyant than usual, which led to an accelerated shelfbreak jet. Moored velocity measurements at the 60 m isobath recorded alongshelf flow of as much as 0.6 m/s. The anticipated fish species were not observed over the continental shelf. Some comments on the forcing leading to the large scale <span class="hlt">warming</span> will be presented, along with a brief discussion of the impact of the <span class="hlt">warming</span> on the marine ecosystem in the northeast U.S.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24523499','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24523499"><span>Differential impacts of ocean acidification and <span class="hlt">warming</span> on <span class="hlt">winter</span> and summer progeny of a coastal squid (Loligo vulgaris).</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Rosa, Rui; Trübenbach, Katja; Pimentel, Marta S; Boavida-Portugal, Joana; Faleiro, Filipa; Baptista, Miguel; Dionísio, Gisela; Calado, Ricardo; Pörtner, Hans O; Repolho, Tiago</p> <p>2014-02-15</p> <p>Little is known about the capacity of early life stages to undergo hypercapnic and thermal acclimation under the future scenarios of ocean acidification and <span class="hlt">warming</span>. Here, we investigated a comprehensive set of biological responses to these climate change-related variables (2°C above <span class="hlt">winter</span> and summer average spawning temperatures and ΔpH=0.5 units) during the early ontogeny of the squid Loligo vulgaris. Embryo survival rates ranged from 92% to 96% under present-day temperature (13-17°C) and pH (8.0) scenarios. Yet, ocean acidification (pH 7.5) and summer <span class="hlt">warming</span> (19°C) led to a significant drop in the survival rates of summer embryos (47%, P<0.05). The embryonic period was shortened by increasing temperature in both pH treatments (P<0.05). Embryo growth rates increased significantly with temperature under present-day scenarios, but there was a significant trend reversal under future summer <span class="hlt">warming</span> conditions (P<0.05). Besides pronounced premature hatching, a higher percentage of abnormalities was found in summer embryos exposed to future <span class="hlt">warming</span> and lower pH (P<0.05). Under the hypercapnic scenario, oxygen consumption rates decreased significantly in late embryos and newly hatched paralarvae, especially in the summer period (P<0.05). Concomitantly, there was a significant enhancement of the heat shock response (HSP70/HSC70) with <span class="hlt">warming</span> in both pH treatments and developmental stages. Upper thermal tolerance limits were positively influenced by acclimation temperature, and such thresholds were significantly higher in late embryos than in hatchlings under present-day conditions (P<0.05). In contrast, the upper thermal tolerance limits under hypercapnia were higher in hatchlings than in embryos. Thus, we show that the stressful abiotic conditions inside the embryo's capsules will be exacerbated under near-future ocean acidification and summer <span class="hlt">warming</span> scenarios. The occurrence of prolonged embryogenesis along with lowered thermal tolerance limits under such</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015PhDT.......146B','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015PhDT.......146B"><span><span class="hlt">Warm</span>-season diurnal circulations and heat <span class="hlt">extremes</span> over the northwest U.S</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Brewer, Matthew C.</p> <p></p> <p>Summer synoptic circulations over the northwest U.S., and their interactions with regional terrain, land/water contrasts, and surface heating, give rise to a variety of fascinating meteorological phenomena, many of which have yet to be explored. Furthermore, it is largely unknown how projected future <span class="hlt">warming</span> associated with increased greenhouse gases will modify these important features. The work herein seeks to ameliorate this with a comprehensive examination of two important aspects of northwest U.S. summer weather and climate: diurnal circulations and changes to the conditions associated with <span class="hlt">extreme</span> temperatures under anthropogenic global <span class="hlt">warming</span>. To simulate regional diurnal circulations, GFS model output was obtained for July and August 2009-2011. These data were categorized into hour of the day, composited, and the resulting files were used to initialize and provide boundary conditions to a WRF (version 3.5) model run. It was shown that, when compared to observations, this WRF run sufficiently simulates average diurnal variability. Using this simulation, the diurnal circulations of the region were described, including several important wind features within the Strait of Juan de Fuca, the Snoqualmie Pass, and the Columbia River Gorge. Also, regional nocturnal low-level wind maxima are described, including one over the northern Willamette valley and another over the high plateau of eastern Oregon. Recent work by the authors has elucidated the physical mechanisms that drive heat <span class="hlt">extremes</span> over the northwest U.S., including the necessity of a ridge aloft, with associated subsidence and advection <span class="hlt">warming</span>. Also, easterly flow is crucial for keeping the marine air at bay, and producing downslope flow and adiabatic <span class="hlt">warming</span> on the western slopes of regional north-south terrain barriers. Given the rising temperatures projected under anthropogenic global <span class="hlt">warming</span>, how are these conditions, and associated low-level temperature distributions, projected to change? As a</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017ClDy..tmp..221L','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017ClDy..tmp..221L"><span>Predictability and prediction of the total number of <span class="hlt">winter</span> <span class="hlt">extremely</span> cold days over China</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Luo, Xiao; Wang, Bin</p> <p>2017-05-01</p> <p>The current dynamical climate models have limited skills in predicting <span class="hlt">winter</span> temperature in China. The present study uses physics-based empirical models (PEMs) to explore the sources and limits of the seasonal predictability in the total number of <span class="hlt">extremely</span> cold days (NECD) over China. A combined cluster-rotated EOF analysis reveals two sub-regions of homogeneous variability among hundreds of stations, namely the Northeast China (NE) and Main China (MC). This reduces the large-number of predictands to only two indices, the NCED-NE and NCED-MC, which facilitates detection of the common sources of predictability for all stations. The circulation anomalies associated with the NECD-NE exhibit a zonally symmetric Arctic Oscillation-like pattern, whereas those associated with the NECD-MC feature a North-South dipolar pattern over Asia. The predictability of the NECD originates from SST and snow cover anomalies in the preceding September and October. However, the two regions have different SST predictors: The NE predictor is in the western Eurasian Arctic while the MC predictor is over the tropical-North Pacific. The October snow cover predictors also differ: The NE predictor primarily resides in the central Eurasia while the MC predictor is over the western and eastern Eurasia. The PEM prediction results suggest that about 60% (55%) of the total variance of <span class="hlt">winter</span> NECD over the NE (Main) China are likely predictable 1 month in advance. The NECD at each station can also be predicted by using the four predictors that were detected for the two indices. The cross-validated temporal correlation skills exceed 0.70 at most stations. The physical mechanisms by which the autumn Arctic sea ice, snow cover, and tropical-North Pacific SST anomalies affect <span class="hlt">winter</span> NECD over the NE and Main China are discussed.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFM.A54B..07L','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFM.A54B..07L"><span>Increasing contrasts between wet and dry precipitation <span class="hlt">extremes</span> during the "global <span class="hlt">warming</span> hiatus" (1998-2013)</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Lau, W. K. M.; Wu, H. T.</p> <p>2015-12-01</p> <p>We investigate changes in daily precipitation <span class="hlt">extremes</span> using TRMM data (1998-2013), which coincides with the so-called "global <span class="hlt">warming</span> hiatus". Results show a structural change in probability distribution functions (pdf) of local precipitation events (LPE) during this period, indicating more intense LPE, less moderate LPE, and more dry (no-rain) days globally. Analyses for land and ocean separately reveal more complex and nuanced changes over land, characterized by a strong positive trend (+12.0% per decade, 99% confidence level (c.l.)) in frequency of <span class="hlt">extreme</span> LPE's over the Northern Hemisphere extratropics during the wet season, but a negative global trend (-6.6% per decade, 95% c.l.) during the dry season. Analyses of the risk of drought based on the number of dry days show a significant global drying trend (3.2% per decade, 99% c.l.) over land during the dry season. Regions of pronounced increased drought include western and central US, northeastern Asia and southern Europe/Mediterranean. Trends in cloud distributions from TRMM VIS-IR, and relative humidity from reanalysis have also been examined. Overall, the changes in water cycle parameters are consistent with increasing contrasts between wet and dry precipitation <span class="hlt">extremes</span>, as reported in previous studies based on observations and climate model projections for a longer period, implying changes in global water cycle was underway during 1998-2013 as if there is no "global <span class="hlt">warming</span> hiatus". The implications of the present results will be discussed.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016PalOc..31.1206A','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016PalOc..31.1206A"><span>The "<span class="hlt">warm</span>" Marine Isotope Stage 31 in the Labrador Sea: Low surface salinities and cold subsurface waters prevented <span class="hlt">winter</span> convection</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Aubry, A. M. R.; Vernal, A.; Hillaire-Marcel, C.</p> <p>2016-09-01</p> <p>Surface and subsurface conditions in the Labrador Sea during Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 31 at the Integrated Ocean Drilling Program Site U1305 off southwest Greenland are reconstructed based on dinocyst and foraminifer assemblages. Isotopic compositions of planktonic (Neogloboquadrina pachyderma, Np) and benthic (Cibicides wuellerstorfi, Cw, and Oridorsalis umbonatus, Ou) foraminifera provide further information about water properties in the mesopelagic layer as well as at the seafloor. Dinocyst proxy reconstructions indicate low salinities (32-34.5), cool <span class="hlt">winters</span> (3-6°C), and mild summers (10-15°C) in the surface water layer during the MIS 31 "optimum". However, planktonic foraminifer assemblages largely dominated by Np suggest relatively cold subsurface conditions in <span class="hlt">winter</span> and summer (<4°C). Lower δ13C values in Np versus Cw further suggest either a lesser-ventilated mesopelagic layer than the bottom one or high organic matter oxidation rates at Np habitat depth. The dinocyst and planktonic foraminifer records together suggest a strong stratification between the surface and subsurface water layers. Isotopic and micropaleontological data thus converge toward paleoceanographical conditions unsuitable for convection and intermediate or deep water formation in the Labrador Sea during the <span class="hlt">warm</span> MIS 31 interglacial, a situation comparable to the one that prevailed during the <span class="hlt">warm</span> MIS 5e.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013AGUFMGC11A0976C','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013AGUFMGC11A0976C"><span>North America <span class="hlt">Extreme</span> Precipitation Changes under Global <span class="hlt">Warming</span>: ATHENA model results and Observations</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Chiu, L.; Lu, J.; Huang, B.; Feng, X.</p> <p>2013-12-01</p> <p>Global climate models have generally shown a more <span class="hlt">extreme</span> climate under global <span class="hlt">warming</span> scenarios. A quantitative assessment of precipitation <span class="hlt">extreme</span> is crucial in light of the damage produced by recent Hurricane Sandy and for water resource management in general. We examined the spatial and temporal structure of <span class="hlt">extreme</span> precipitation from climate models and compare them with observed datasets derived from satellite and rain gauge analyses. Results from the ATHENA project (for high resolution global climate simulations) at resolutions of T159 and T1279, corresponding to resolutions of about 128km and 16km, respectively, with 6 hourly output are analyzed. The high resolution T1279 data revealed fine scale dependence on topography, such as the mountain ranges in the west coast, which are not resolved in T159. The high resolution data also show higher and more variable annual maximum. Comparison of AMIP and Time Slice data also reveal that the return periods of heavy rainfall decrease, or more frequent recurrence of <span class="hlt">extreme</span> events under a global <span class="hlt">warming</span> scenario. A Generalized <span class="hlt">Extremely</span> Value (GEV) distribution is used to examine the parametric dependence of annual maximum rainfall although other EV distributions, such as a Frechet (EV type II) or Gumble (EV type I) distribution often perform better than the GEV. The estimated shape parameter, which determines the skewness of the distribution, is generally small and in the range of less than 0.2. Assuming the shape parameter is zero, the GEV reduces to a two parameter distribution- the location and scale parameters. Annual maximum rainfall derived from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) one degree daily (1dd) product and the TRMM Merged Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) at 0.25 degree and 3 hourly resolutions are compiled and analyzed. Comparison between the ATHENA and satellite-gauge products shows that their spatial pattern is quite similar while the models tend to underestimate annual maximum rainfall</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/scitech/biblio/1038586','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/scitech/biblio/1038586"><span>Changes in <span class="hlt">winter</span> precipitation <span class="hlt">extremes</span> for the western United States under a warmer climate as simulated by regional climate models</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech">SciTech Connect</a></p> <p>Dominguez, F; Rivera, E; Lettenmaier, D P; Castro1, and C. L.</p> <p>2012-03-01</p> <p>We find a consistent and statistically significant increase in the intensity of future <span class="hlt">extreme</span> <span class="hlt">winter</span> precipitation events over the western United States, as simulated by an ensemble of regional climatemodels (RCMs) driven by IPCC AR4 global climate models (GCMs). All eight simulations analyzed in this work consistently show an increase in the intensity of <span class="hlt">extreme</span> <span class="hlt">winter</span> precipitation with the multi-model mean projecting an area-averaged 12.6% increase in 20-year return period and 14.4% increase in 50-year return period daily precipitation. In contrast with <span class="hlt">extreme</span> precipitation, the multi-model ensemble shows a decrease in mean <span class="hlt">winter</span> precipitation of approximately 7.5% in the southwestern US, while the interior west shows less statistically robust increases.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012EGUGA..14.3860L','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012EGUGA..14.3860L"><span>Climate <span class="hlt">Extremes</span> Triggered State Shifting of US Great Plains Prairie under Experimental <span class="hlt">Warming</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Luo, Y.; Xu, X.; Sherry, R.; Niu, S.; Li, D.; Xia, J.</p> <p>2012-04-01</p> <p>Ecosystems can exist under multiple stable states. Transition from one stable state to another is usually triggered by perturbations such as climate <span class="hlt">extremes</span>, which should be large enough to push the ecosystem over a threshold. Ecosystem state changes can alter ecosystem functions and services as dramatically as in Sahara with vegetation changes from tropical forests to grassland and deserts over 6000 years. Thus it is crucial to understand mechanisms underlying ecosystem state changes. State changes of ecosystem vegetation have been well documented in paleo-records and predicted to occur under climate change by dynamic global vegetation models. Paleo-records usually offer broad-scale patterns of ecosystem state changes over time and rarely offer much insight into fundamental mechanisms underlying the state changes. Model predictions may be calibrated against contemporary and paleo vegetation distributions but have not been carefully tested against experimental evidence. The latter, however, is <span class="hlt">extremely</span> rare largely because global chance experiments are mostly short term. We have observed state shifting of a US Great Plains prairie under long-term experimental <span class="hlt">warming</span> and clipping treatments. Our analysis of 11-year data from the experiment showed two-stage stimulations of aboveground net primary production (ANPP) with small increases in the first 7 followed by distinctly large increases under experimental <span class="hlt">warming</span> in comparison with those under control. The two-stage ANPP simulations were corresponded with species reordering with the plant community over time but not related to <span class="hlt">warming</span>-induced changes in temperature, soil moisture and nitrogen dynamics in the grassland. The state shifting of the grassland under the experimental <span class="hlt">warming</span> was partly because our experimental site locates in an ecotone between the mixed and tall grass prairies. Under the experimental <span class="hlt">warming</span>, the prairie was shifting from the mixed prairie as dominated by Schizachyrium scoparium</p> </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_9");'>9</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_10");'>10</a></li> <li class="active"><span>11</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_12");'>12</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_13");'>13</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div><!-- col-sm-12 --> </div><!-- row --> </div><!-- page_11 --> <div id="page_12" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_10");'>10</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_11");'>11</a></li> <li class="active"><span>12</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_13");'>13</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_14");'>14</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="221"> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016ClDy..tmp..388F','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016ClDy..tmp..388F"><span>Simulated austral <span class="hlt">winter</span> response of the Hadley circulation and stationary Rossby wave propagation to a <span class="hlt">warming</span> climate</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Freitas, Ana C. V.; Frederiksen, Jorgen S.; O'Kane, Terence J.; Ambrizzi, Tércio</p> <p>2016-09-01</p> <p>Ensemble simulations, using both coupled ocean-atmosphere (AOGCM) and atmosphere only (AGCM) general circulation models, are employed to examine the austral <span class="hlt">winter</span> response of the Hadley circulation (HC) and stationary Rossby wave propagation (SRW) to a <span class="hlt">warming</span> climate. Changes in the strength and width of the HC are firstly examined in a set of runs with idealized sea surface temperature (SST) perturbations as boundary conditions in the AGCM. Strong and weak SST gradient experiments (SG and WG, respectively) simulate changes in the HC intensity, whereas narrow (5°S-5°N) and wide (30°S-30°N) SST <span class="hlt">warming</span> experiments simulate changes in the HC width. To examine the combined impact of changes in the strength and width of the HC upon SRW propagation two AOGCM simulations using different scenarios of increasing carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations are employed. We show that, in contrast to a wide SST <span class="hlt">warming</span>, the atmospheric simulations with a narrow SST <span class="hlt">warming</span> produce stronger and very zonally extended Rossby wave sources, leading to stronger and eastward shifted troughs and ridges. Simulations with SST anomalies, either in narrow or wide latitude bands only modify the intensity of the troughs and ridges. SST anomalies outside the narrow latitude band of 5°S-5°N do not significantly affect the spatial pattern of SRW propagation. AOGCM simulations with 1 %/year increasing CO2 concentrations or 4 times preindustrial CO2 levels reveal very similar SRW responses to the atmospheric only simulations with anomalously wider SST <span class="hlt">warming</span>. Our results suggest that in a warmer climate, the changes in the strength and width of the HC act in concert to significantly alter SRW sources and propagation characteristics.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017ClDy...49..521F','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017ClDy...49..521F"><span>Simulated austral <span class="hlt">winter</span> response of the Hadley circulation and stationary Rossby wave propagation to a <span class="hlt">warming</span> climate</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Freitas, Ana C. V.; Frederiksen, Jorgen S.; O'Kane, Terence J.; Ambrizzi, Tércio</p> <p>2017-07-01</p> <p>Ensemble simulations, using both coupled ocean-atmosphere (AOGCM) and atmosphere only (AGCM) general circulation models, are employed to examine the austral <span class="hlt">winter</span> response of the Hadley circulation (HC) and stationary Rossby wave propagation (SRW) to a <span class="hlt">warming</span> climate. Changes in the strength and width of the HC are firstly examined in a set of runs with idealized sea surface temperature (SST) perturbations as boundary conditions in the AGCM. Strong and weak SST gradient experiments (SG and WG, respectively) simulate changes in the HC intensity, whereas narrow (5°S-5°N) and wide (30°S-30°N) SST <span class="hlt">warming</span> experiments simulate changes in the HC width. To examine the combined impact of changes in the strength and width of the HC upon SRW propagation two AOGCM simulations using different scenarios of increasing carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations are employed. We show that, in contrast to a wide SST <span class="hlt">warming</span>, the atmospheric simulations with a narrow SST <span class="hlt">warming</span> produce stronger and very zonally extended Rossby wave sources, leading to stronger and eastward shifted troughs and ridges. Simulations with SST anomalies, either in narrow or wide latitude bands only modify the intensity of the troughs and ridges. SST anomalies outside the narrow latitude band of 5°S-5°N do not significantly affect the spatial pattern of SRW propagation. AOGCM simulations with 1 %/year increasing CO2 concentrations or 4 times preindustrial CO2 levels reveal very similar SRW responses to the atmospheric only simulations with anomalously wider SST <span class="hlt">warming</span>. Our results suggest that in a warmer climate, the changes in the strength and width of the HC act in concert to significantly alter SRW sources and propagation characteristics.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015EGUGA..1711162M','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015EGUGA..1711162M"><span>Role of Sea Surface <span class="hlt">Warming</span> in Triggering Amplification of Coastal Rainfall <span class="hlt">Extremes</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Meredith, Edmund; Semenov, Vladimir; Maraun, Douglas; Park, Wonsun; Chernokulsky, Alexander</p> <p>2015-04-01</p> <p>Whether recent changes in the occurrence of meteorological <span class="hlt">extremes</span> are attributable to a warmer climate remains a challenging question. One area where the potential for <span class="hlt">extreme</span> summertime convective precipitation has grown recently, along with substantial sea surface temperature (SST) increase, is the Black Sea and Mediterranean (BSM) region. To study mechanisms through which SST increase may impact BSM convective <span class="hlt">extremes</span>, we take the July 2012 precipitation <span class="hlt">extreme</span> near the Black Sea town of Krymsk as a recent showcase example. The event was related to a slow moving low pressure system crossing the eastern Black Sea, advecting <span class="hlt">warm</span> and moist air towards the coast. Two waves of convection resulted in precipitation totals that dwarfed all previous events in the instrumental record, dating back to the 1930s, and over 170 deaths. The synoptic environment which led to this event is typical of that found with intense summertime precipitation in the BSM region. We carry out ensemble sensitivity experiments over an eastern Black Sea domain with the WRF regional model, using multiply nested sub-domains, increasing to 600 m convection resolving resolution. The model's ability to reproduce the event with observed SST forcing is first verified, before a series of additional ensembles with altered SST is created. These ensembles consist of subtracting (adding) the 1982 - 2012 trend in Black Sea SST from (to) the observed 2012 SST field in 20% increments, giving a total of 11 ensembles whose SST differ from the observed field by between -100% and +100% of the <span class="hlt">warming</span> trend. We demonstrate that such an intense precipitation event would not have been possible without the recent Black Sea <span class="hlt">warming</span>. The increased SST enhances low-level instability, allowing deep convection to be triggered and causing a more than 300% increase in precipitation. Additionally, a highly nonlinear precipitation response to incrementally increasing SST suggests that Black Sea SSTs have exceeded a</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22798252','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22798252"><span>Understanding factors influencing vulnerable older people keeping <span class="hlt">warm</span> and well in <span class="hlt">winter</span>: a qualitative study using social marketing techniques.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Tod, Angela Mary; Lusambili, Adelaide; Homer, Catherine; Abbott, Joanne; Cooke, Joanne Mary; Stocks, Amanda Jayne; McDaid, Kathleen Anne</p> <p>2012-01-01</p> <p>To understand the influences and decisions of vulnerable older people in relation to keeping <span class="hlt">warm</span> in <span class="hlt">winter</span>. A qualitative study incorporating in-depth, semi-structured individual and group interviews, framework analysis and social marketing segmentation techniques. Rotherham, South Yorkshire, UK. 50 older people (>55) and 25 health and social care staff underwent individual interview. The older people also had household temperature measurements. 24 older people and 19 health and social care staff participated in one of the six group interviews. Multiple complex factors emerged to explain whether vulnerable older people were able to keep <span class="hlt">warm</span>. These influences combined in various ways that meant older people were not able to or preferred not to access help or change home heating behaviour. Factors influencing behaviours and decisions relating to use of heating, spending money, accessing cheaper tariffs, accessing benefits or asking for help fell into three main categories. These were situational and contextual factors, attitudes and values, and barriers. Barriers included poor knowledge and awareness, technology, disjointed systems and the invisibility of fuel and fuel payment. Findings formed the basis of a social marketing segmentation model used to develop six pen portraits that illustrated how factors that conspire against older people being able to keep <span class="hlt">warm</span>. The findings illustrate how and why vulnerable older people may be at risk of a cold home. The pen portraits provide an accessible vehicle and reflective tool to raise the capacity of the NHS in responding to their needs in line with the Cold Weather Plan.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015JGRC..120.4324C','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015JGRC..120.4324C"><span>The role of atmospheric forcing versus ocean advection during the <span class="hlt">extreme</span> <span class="hlt">warming</span> of the Northeast U.S. continental shelf in 2012</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Chen, Ke; Gawarkiewicz, Glen; Kwon, Young-Oh; Zhang, Weifeng G.</p> <p>2015-06-01</p> <p>In the coastal ocean off the Northeast U.S., the sea surface temperature (SST) in the first half of 2012 was the highest on the record for the past roughly 150 years of recorded observations. The underlying dynamical processes responsible for this <span class="hlt">extreme</span> event are examined using a numerical model, and the relative contributions of air-sea heat flux versus lateral ocean advective heat flux are quantified. The model accurately reproduces the observed vertical structure and the spatiotemporal characteristics of the thermohaline condition of the Gulf of Maine and the Middle Atlantic Bight waters during the anomalous <span class="hlt">warming</span> period. Analysis of the model results show that the <span class="hlt">warming</span> event was primarily driven by the anomalous air-sea heat flux, while the smaller contribution by the ocean advection worked against this flux by acting to cool the shelf. The anomalous air-sea heat flux exhibited a shelf-wide coherence, consistent with the shelf-wide <span class="hlt">warming</span> pattern, while the ocean advective heat flux was dominated by localized, relatively smaller-scale processes. The anomalous cooling due to advection primarily resulted from the along-shelf heat flux divergence in the Gulf of Maine, while in the Middle Atlantic Bight the advective contribution from the along-shelf and cross-shelf heat flux divergences was comparable. The modeling results confirm the conclusion of the recent analysis of in situ data by Chen et al. (2014a) that the changes in the large-scale atmospheric circulation in the <span class="hlt">winter</span> of 2011-2012 primarily caused the <span class="hlt">extreme</span> <span class="hlt">warm</span> anomaly in the spring of 2012. The effect of along-shelf or cross-shelf ocean advection on the <span class="hlt">warm</span> anomalies from either the Scotian Shelf or adjacent continental slope was secondary.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25788025','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25788025"><span><span class="hlt">Winter</span> <span class="hlt">warming</span> as an important co-driver for Betula nana growth in western Greenland during the past century.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Hollesen, Jørgen; Buchwal, Agata; Rachlewicz, Grzegorz; Hansen, Birger U; Hansen, Marc O; Stecher, Ole; Elberling, Bo</p> <p>2015-06-01</p> <p>Growing season conditions are widely recognized as the main driver for tundra shrub radial growth, but the effects of <span class="hlt">winter</span> <span class="hlt">warming</span> and snow remain an open question. Here, we present a more than 100 years long Betula nana ring-width chronology from Disko Island in western Greenland that demonstrates a highly significant and positive growth response to both summer and <span class="hlt">winter</span> air temperatures during the past century. The importance of <span class="hlt">winter</span> temperatures for Betula nana growth is especially pronounced during the periods from 1910-1930 to 1990-2011 that were dominated by significant <span class="hlt">winter</span> <span class="hlt">warming</span>. To explain the strong <span class="hlt">winter</span> importance on growth, we assessed the importance of different environmental factors using site-specific measurements from 1991 to 2011 of soil temperatures, sea ice coverage, precipitation and snow depths. The results show a strong positive growth response to the amount of thawing and growing degree-days as well as to <span class="hlt">winter</span> and spring soil temperatures. In addition to these direct effects, a strong negative growth response to sea ice extent was identified, indicating a possible link between local sea ice conditions, local climate variations and Betula nana growth rates. Data also reveal a clear shift within the last 20 years from a period with thick snow depths (1991-1996) and a positive effect on Betula nana radial growth, to a period (1997-2011) with generally very shallow snow depths and no significant growth response towards snow. During this period, <span class="hlt">winter</span> and spring soil temperatures have increased significantly suggesting that the most recent increase in Betula nana radial growth is primarily triggered by warmer <span class="hlt">winter</span> and spring air temperatures causing earlier snowmelt that allows the soils to drain and <span class="hlt">warm</span> quicker. The presented results may help to explain the recently observed 'greening of the Arctic' which may further accelerate in future years due to both direct and indirect effects of <span class="hlt">winter</span> <span class="hlt">warming</span>. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24919920','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24919920"><span>Increased frequency of <span class="hlt">extreme</span> Indian Ocean Dipole events due to greenhouse <span class="hlt">warming</span>.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Cai, Wenju; Santoso, Agus; Wang, Guojian; Weller, Evan; Wu, Lixin; Ashok, Karumuri; Masumoto, Yukio; Yamagata, Toshio</p> <p>2014-06-12</p> <p>The Indian Ocean dipole is a prominent mode of coupled ocean-atmosphere variability, affecting the lives of millions of people in Indian Ocean rim countries. In its positive phase, sea surface temperatures are lower than normal off the Sumatra-Java coast, but higher in the western tropical Indian Ocean. During the <span class="hlt">extreme</span> positive-IOD (pIOD) events of 1961, 1994 and 1997, the eastern cooling strengthened and extended westward along the equatorial Indian Ocean through strong reversal of both the mean westerly winds and the associated eastward-flowing upper ocean currents. This created anomalously dry conditions from the eastern to the central Indian Ocean along the Equator and atmospheric convergence farther west, leading to catastrophic floods in eastern tropical African countries but devastating droughts in eastern Indian Ocean rim countries. Despite these serious consequences, the response of pIOD events to greenhouse <span class="hlt">warming</span> is unknown. Here, using an ensemble of climate models forced by a scenario of high greenhouse gas emissions (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5), we project that the frequency of <span class="hlt">extreme</span> pIOD events will increase by almost a factor of three, from one event every 17.3 years over the twentieth century to one event every 6.3 years over the twenty-first century. We find that a mean state change--with weakening of both equatorial westerly winds and eastward oceanic currents in association with a faster <span class="hlt">warming</span> in the western than the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean--facilitates more frequent occurrences of wind and oceanic current reversal. This leads to more frequent <span class="hlt">extreme</span> pIOD events, suggesting an increasing frequency of <span class="hlt">extreme</span> climate and weather events in regions affected by the pIOD.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25895594','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25895594"><span>Areas of potential suitability and survival of Dendroctonus valens in China under <span class="hlt">extreme</span> climate <span class="hlt">warming</span> scenario.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>He, S Y; Ge, X Z; Wang, T; Wen, J B; Zong, S X</p> <p>2015-08-01</p> <p>The areas in China with climates suitable for the potential distribution of the pest species red turpentine beetle (RTB) Dendroctonus valens LeConte (Coleoptera: Scolytidae) were predicted by CLIMEX based on historical climate data and future climate data with <span class="hlt">warming</span> estimated. The model used a historical climate data set (1971-2000) and a simulated climate data set (2010-2039) provided by the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change (TYN SC 2.0). Based on the historical climate data, a wide area was available in China with a suitable climate for the beetle in which every province might contain suitable habitats for this pest, particularly all of the southern provinces. The northern limit of the distribution of the beetle was predicted to reach Yakeshi and Elunchun in Inner Mongolia, and the western boundary would reach to Keerkezi in Xinjiang Province. Based on a global-<span class="hlt">warming</span> scenario, the area with a potential climate suited to RTB in the next 30 years (2010-2039) may extend further to the northeast. The northern limit of the distribution could reach most parts of south Heilongjiang Province, whereas the western limit would remain unchanged. Combined with the tendency for RTB to spread, the variation in suitable habitats within the scenario of <span class="hlt">extreme</span> climate <span class="hlt">warming</span> and the multiple geographical elements of China led us to assume that, within the next 30 years, RTB would spread towards the northeast, northwest, and central regions of China and could be a potentially serious problem for the forests of China.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26171355','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26171355"><span><span class="hlt">Extremely</span> Low Frequency Electromagnetic Field from Convective Air <span class="hlt">Warming</span> System on Temperature Selection and Distance.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Cho, Kwang Rae; Kim, Myoung-Hun; Ko, Myoung Jin; Jung, Jae Wook; Lee, Ki Hwa; Park, Yei-Heum; Kim, Yong Han; Kim, Ki Hoon; Kim, Jin Soo</p> <p>2014-12-01</p> <p>Hypothermia generates potentially severe complications in operating or recovery room. Forced air warmer is effective to maintain body temperature. <span class="hlt">Extremely</span> low frequency electromagnetic field (ELF-EMF) is harmful to human body and mainly produced by electronic equipment including convective air <span class="hlt">warming</span> system. We investigated ELF-EMF from convective air <span class="hlt">warming</span> device on various temperature selection and distance for guideline to protect medical personnel and patients. The intensity of ELF-EMF was measured as two-second interval for five minutes on various distance (0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.5 and 1meter) and temperature selection (high, medium, low and ambient). All of electrical devices were off including lamp, computer and air conditioner. Groups were compared using one-way ANOVA. P<0.05 was considered significant. Mean values of ELF-EMF on the distance of 30 cm were 18.63, 18.44, 18.23 and 17.92 milligauss (mG) respectively (high, medium, low and ambient temperature set). ELF-EMF of high temperature set was higher than data of medium, low and ambient set in all the distances. ELF-EMF from convective air <span class="hlt">warming</span> system is higher in condition of more close location and higher temperature. ELF-EMF within thirty centimeters exceeds 2mG recommended by Swedish TCO guideline.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017ClDy...48.1213C','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017ClDy...48.1213C"><span>The influence of tropical forcing on <span class="hlt">extreme</span> <span class="hlt">winter</span> precipitation in the western Himalaya</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Cannon, Forest; Carvalho, Leila M. V.; Jones, Charles; Hoell, Andrew; Norris, Jesse; Kiladis, George N.; Tahir, Adnan A.</p> <p>2017-02-01</p> <p>Within the Karakoram and western Himalaya (KH), snowfall from <span class="hlt">winter</span> westerly disturbances (WD) maintains the region's snowpack and glaciers, which melt seasonally to sustain water resources for downstream populations. WD activity and subsequent precipitation are influenced by global atmospheric variability and tropical-extratropical interactions. On interannual time-scales, El Niño related changes in tropical diabatic heating induce a Rossby wave response over southwest Asia that is linked with enhanced dynamical forcing of WD and available moisture. Consequently, <span class="hlt">extreme</span> orographic precipitation events are more frequent during El Niño than La Niña or neutral conditions. A similar spatial pattern of tropical diabatic heating is produced by the MJO at intraseasonal scales. In comparison to El Niño, the Rossby wave response to MJO activity is less spatially uniform over southwest Asia and varies on shorter time-scales. This study finds that the MJO's relationship with WD and KH precipitation is more complex than that of ENSO. Phases of the MJO propagation cycle that favor the dynamical enhancement of WD simultaneously suppress available moisture over southwest Asia, and vice versa. As a result, <span class="hlt">extreme</span> precipitation events in the KH occur with similar frequency in most phases of the MJO, however, there is a transition in the relative importance of dynamical forcing and moisture in WD to orographic precipitation in the KH as the MJO evolves. These findings give insight into the dynamics and predictability of <span class="hlt">extreme</span> precipitation events in the KH through their relationship with global atmospheric variability, and are an important consideration in evaluating Asia's water resources.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFM.V23C2991O','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFM.V23C2991O"><span>Selective nature of end-Triassic tetrapod extinctions consistent with scenarios of <span class="hlt">extreme</span> volcanic <span class="hlt">winters</span> not a super-greenhouse</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Olsen, P. E.</p> <p>2016-12-01</p> <p>Eruptions of the giant Central Atlantic Magmatic Province (CAMP) are temporally linked to the end-Triassic extinction event (ETE). Continental tetrapod extinctions were highly selective affecting specific higher taxa and different latitudinal zones. The Late Triassic tropics were strongly dominated by diverse crocodile-line archosaurs while dinosaurs were rare, represented only by relatively small carnivores. Triassic high-latitudes had higher dinosaur diversity with abundant and often large dinosaurian herbivores. Only two small-bodied crocodile-line lineages survived the ETE, with a near-global homogenization of continental assemblages. Herbivorous dinosaurs spread globally while carnivorous dinosaurs became much larger. CAMP-sourced CO2 doublings (1,2) over 10s to 100s of thousands of years produced significant <span class="hlt">warming</span> and some tropical lethality, but how this led to higher latitude extinctions is hard to see. In contrast, the taxonomic and geographic selectivity is consistent with many brief but severe sulfate "volcanic <span class="hlt">winters</span>" (3) plausibly leading to freezing tropics. Crocodile-line archosaurs, dinosaurs, and pterosaurs and were relatively resistant to heat induced water stress, but the Crocodile-line archosaurs lacked insolation, while the latter had it. The lengthy super-greenhouse events allowed small crocodile-line archosaurs to escape to cooler climes or burrow, but during volcanic <span class="hlt">winters</span> larger forms had nowhere to go. I hypothesize that crocodile-line and other herptile extinctions resulted from <span class="hlt">extreme</span> cold events, for which they had no adaptations. In contrast, dinosaurs, other insulated forms, as well as burrowers survived the cold. This hypothesis is consistent with global post-ETE faunal homogenization, when the higher latitude dinosaurs spreading globally and becoming ecologically dominant. Tropical freezing predicts that ice crystal impressions should be found in facies that typically have reptile footprints in eastern North America deposited</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010EGUGA..12.3379R','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010EGUGA..12.3379R"><span>Impacts of extraordinary <span class="hlt">warm</span> and cold late-<span class="hlt">winter</span> temperatures on observed and modelled plant phenology in Switzerland</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Rutishauser, This; Stöckli, Reto</p> <p>2010-05-01</p> <p>The impact of gradual change in the climate system during the second half of the 20th century left a strong imprint on the timing of seasonal events in biotic and biotic systems such as e.g. plant development stages and the greenness of the Earth's surface. Temporal trends in seasonal events largely correspond to the effects expected from the increases in temperature. The impact of extraordinary temperature and precipitation events on plant phenology in spring is less understood. For example a strong early-spring frost event in the USA in April 2007 lead to reduced greenness and freeze damage to leaves and fruits of natural and horticultural species whereas a <span class="hlt">winter</span> <span class="hlt">warming</span> event in northern Scandinavia in December 2007 caused considerable damage to sub-Arctic dwarf shrub vegetation and reduced vegetation activity (26% reduced maximum Normalized Difference Vegetation Index NDVI relative to the previous year) in the following summer. In Germany and Switzerland, the effects of the extraordinary <span class="hlt">warm</span> temperature anomalies of autumn 2006, <span class="hlt">winter</span> 2006/2007 and spring 2007 showed strong impacts on selected plant phenological phases back to 1951 and 1702. Common hazel and snowdrop flowered up to 35 days earlier in Germany and beech and fruits tree were two weeks earlier in Switzerland. This contribution presents empirical evidence of extraordinary <span class="hlt">warm</span> and cold late-<span class="hlt">winter</span> temperatures on species-specific plant phenology and modelled landscape-scale phenology in Switzerland in the period 1958-2008. Species-specific observations were extracted from the Swiss Plant Phenological Network of MeteoSwiss for 23 low-altitude stations and 12 stations that report to the Global Climate Observation System (GCOS). Observations cover all climate regions and altitudes. For each GCOS station we also estimated daily Leaf Area Index with a prognostic phenology model. The model's empirical parameter space was constrained by assimilated Fraction of Photosynthetically Active Radiation</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22481362','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22481362"><span>Past <span class="hlt">extreme</span> <span class="hlt">warming</span> events linked to massive carbon release from thawing permafrost.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>DeConto, Robert M; Galeotti, Simone; Pagani, Mark; Tracy, David; Schaefer, Kevin; Zhang, Tingjun; Pollard, David; Beerling, David J</p> <p>2012-04-04</p> <p>Between about 55.5 and 52 million years ago, Earth experienced a series of sudden and <span class="hlt">extreme</span> global <span class="hlt">warming</span> events (hyperthermals) superimposed on a long-term <span class="hlt">warming</span> trend. The first and largest of these events, the Palaeocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), is characterized by a massive input of carbon, ocean acidification and an increase in global temperature of about 5 °C within a few thousand years. Although various explanations for the PETM have been proposed, a satisfactory model that accounts for the source, magnitude and timing of carbon release at the PETM and successive hyperthermals remains elusive. Here we use a new astronomically calibrated cyclostratigraphic record from central Italy to show that the Early Eocene hyperthermals occurred during orbits with a combination of high eccentricity and high obliquity. Corresponding climate-ecosystem-soil simulations accounting for rising concentrations of background greenhouse gases and orbital forcing show that the magnitude and timing of the PETM and subsequent hyperthermals can be explained by the orbitally triggered decomposition of soil organic carbon in circum-Arctic and Antarctic terrestrial permafrost. This massive carbon reservoir had the potential to repeatedly release thousands of petagrams (10(15) grams) of carbon to the atmosphere-ocean system, once a long-term <span class="hlt">warming</span> threshold had been reached just before the PETM. Replenishment of permafrost soil carbon stocks following peak <span class="hlt">warming</span> probably contributed to the rapid recovery from each event, while providing a sensitive carbon reservoir for the next hyperthermal. As background temperatures continued to rise following the PETM, the areal extent of permafrost steadily declined, resulting in an incrementally smaller available carbon pool and smaller hyperthermals at each successive orbital forcing maximum. A mechanism linking Earth's orbital properties with release of soil carbon from permafrost provides a unifying model accounting for the salient</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.springerlink.com/content/31031027mg27q211/abstract/','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="http://www.springerlink.com/content/31031027mg27q211/abstract/"><span>Temperature inverted haloclines provide <span class="hlt">winter</span> <span class="hlt">warm</span>-water refugia for manatees in southwest Florida</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a></p> <p>Stith, Bradley M.; Reid, James P.; Langtimm, Catherine A.; Swain, Eric D.; Doyle, Terry J.; Slone, Daniel H.; Decker, Jeremy D.; Soderqvist, Lars E.</p> <p>2010-01-01</p> <p>Florida manatees (Trichechus manatus latirostris) overwintering in the Ten Thousand Islands and western Everglades have no access to power plants or major artesian springs that provide <span class="hlt">warm</span>-water refugia in other parts of Florida. Instead, hundreds of manatees aggregate at artificial canals, basins, and natural deep water sites that act as passive thermal refugia (PTR). Monitoring at two canal sites revealed temperature inverted haloclines, which provided <span class="hlt">warm</span> salty bottom layers that generally remained above temperatures considered adverse for manatees. At the largest PTR, the warmer bottom layer disappeared unless significant salt stratification was maintained by upstream freshwater inflow over a persistent tidal wedge. A detailed three-dimensional hydrology model showed that salinity stratification inhibited vertical convection induced by atmospheric cooling. Management or creation of temperature inverted haloclines may be a feasible and desirable option for resource managers to provide passive thermal refugia for manatees and other temperature sensitive aquatic species.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23534206','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23534206"><span>Soil <span class="hlt">warming</span> effect on net ecosystem exchange of carbon dioxide during the transition from <span class="hlt">winter</span> carbon source to spring carbon sink in a temperate urban lawn.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Zhou, Xiaoping; Wang, Xiaoke; Tong, Lei; Zhang, Hongxing; Lu, Fei; Zheng, Feixiang; Hou, Peiqiang; Song, Wenzhi; Ouyang, Zhiyun</p> <p>2012-01-01</p> <p>The significant <span class="hlt">warming</span> in urban environment caused by the combined effects of global <span class="hlt">warming</span> and heat island has stimulated widely development of urban vegetations. However, it is less known of the climate feedback of urban lawn in <span class="hlt">warmed</span> environment. Soil <span class="hlt">warming</span> effect on net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of carbon dioxide during the transition period from <span class="hlt">winter</span> to spring was investigated in a temperate urban lawn in Beijing, China. The NEE (negative for uptake) under soil <span class="hlt">warming</span> treatment (temperature was about 5 degrees C higher than the ambient treatment as a control) was -0.71 micromol/(m2 x sec), the ecosytem was a CO2 sink under soil <span class="hlt">warming</span> treatment, the lawn ecosystem under the control was a CO2 source (0.13 micromol/(m2 x sec)), indicating that the lawn ecosystem would provide a negative feedback to global <span class="hlt">warming</span>. There was no significant effect of soil <span class="hlt">warming</span> on nocturnal NEE (i.e., ecosystem respiration), although the soil temperature sensitivity (Q10) of ecosystem respiration under soil <span class="hlt">warming</span> treatment was 3.86, much lower than that in the control (7.03). The CO2 uptake was significantly increased by soil <span class="hlt">warming</span> treatment that was attributed to about 100% increase of alpha (apparent quantum yield) and Amax (maximum rate of photosynthesis). Our results indicated that the response of photosynthesis in urban lawn is much more sensitive to global <span class="hlt">warming</span> than respiration in the transition period.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22895343','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22895343"><span>More <span class="hlt">extreme</span> swings of the South Pacific convergence zone due to greenhouse <span class="hlt">warming</span>.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Cai, Wenju; Lengaigne, Matthieu; Borlace, Simon; Collins, Matthew; Cowan, Tim; McPhaden, Michael J; Timmermann, Axel; Power, Scott; Brown, Josephine; Menkes, Christophe; Ngari, Arona; Vincent, Emmanuel M; Widlansky, Matthew J</p> <p>2012-08-16</p> <p>The South Pacific convergence zone (SPCZ) is the Southern Hemisphere's most expansive and persistent rain band, extending from the equatorial western Pacific Ocean southeastward towards French Polynesia. Owing to its strong rainfall gradient, a small displacement in the position of the SPCZ causes drastic changes to hydroclimatic conditions and the frequency of <span class="hlt">extreme</span> weather events--such as droughts, floods and tropical cyclones--experienced by vulnerable island countries in the region. The SPCZ position varies from its climatological mean location with the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), moving a few degrees northward during moderate El Niño events and southward during La Niña events. During strong El Niño events, however, the SPCZ undergoes an <span class="hlt">extreme</span> swing--by up to ten degrees of latitude toward the Equator--and collapses to a more zonally oriented structure with commensurately severe weather impacts. Understanding changes in the characteristics of the SPCZ in a changing climate is therefore of broad scientific and socioeconomic interest. Here we present climate modelling evidence for a near doubling in the occurrences of zonal SPCZ events between the periods 1891-1990 and 1991-2090 in response to greenhouse <span class="hlt">warming</span>, even in the absence of a consensus on how ENSO will change. We estimate the increase in zonal SPCZ events from an aggregation of the climate models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phases 3 and 5 (CMIP3 and CMIP5) multi-model database that are able to simulate such events. The change is caused by a projected enhanced equatorial <span class="hlt">warming</span> in the Pacific and may lead to more frequent occurrences of <span class="hlt">extreme</span> events across the Pacific island nations most affected by zonal SPCZ events.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017EGUGA..19.5799H','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017EGUGA..19.5799H"><span>Characteristics of the <span class="hlt">Extreme</span> Low Temperature Events in <span class="hlt">Winter</span> Half Year in China and Its Relationship to East Asian <span class="hlt">Winter</span> Monsoon</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Han, Yongqiu; Zhou, Lian-Tong</p> <p>2017-04-01</p> <p>Based on daily minimum temperature dataset from 553 stations from 1961 to 2012 in China, <span class="hlt">extreme</span> low temperature (ELT) thresholds are determined for different stations and occurrence frequency of ELT events in <span class="hlt">winter</span> half year for each station is estimated and analyzed. And then several partitions in China are divided by empirical orthogonal function and it is verified to be credible by correlation analysis. Meanwhile, the spatial and temporal distribution of ELT events in each sub-region is diagnosed. Finally, the relationship between ELT events and East Asian <span class="hlt">winter</span> monsoon (EAWM) circulation is studied by doing some correlation analysis. The results suggest that: the ELT events in <span class="hlt">winter</span> half year in China are remarkably decreased in recent 51 years, but there are some differences between southern and northern areas. From 1964 to 1980, the ELT events in northeast, north and northwest of China are more than average and that are less than average in south, east and southwest of China, while it is just the reverse from 1981 to 1996. Moreover, the distribution of ELT events also shows a longitudinal oscillation. The correlation analysis between the frequency of ELT events in <span class="hlt">winter</span> half year and EAWM index indicates that the two has good correlation with each other. And meanwhile, the correlation analysis between the frequency of ELT events in <span class="hlt">winter</span> half year and sea level pressure shows that the former has a good positive correlation with Siberian High. Besides, the distribution of the difference between two period mean sea level pressure, from 1961 to 1979 and from 1980 to 2011, shows that Siberian High has an obviously southwardly movement and a trend of weakening after 1980, which go against the outbreak of the cold, that is why the ELT events in <span class="hlt">winter</span> half year in most areas of China have an abrupt decrease.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20345642','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20345642"><span>Establishing a missing link: <span class="hlt">warm</span> summers and <span class="hlt">winter</span> snow cover promote shrub expansion into alpine tundra in Scandinavia.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Hallinger, Martin; Manthey, Michael; Wilmking, Martin</p> <p>2010-06-01</p> <p>*Shrub expansion in alpine and arctic areas is a process with possibly profound implications for ecosystem functioning. The recent shrub expansion has been mainly documented by remote sensing techniques, but the drivers for this process largely remain hypotheses. *Here, we outline a dendrochronological method, adapted to shrubs, to address these hypotheses and then present a mechanism for the current shrub expansion by linking recent climate change to shrub growth performance in northern Sweden. *A pronounced increase in radial and vertical growth during recent decades along an elevational gradient from treeline to shrubline indicates an ongoing shrub expansion. Age distribution of the shrub population indicates the new colonization of shrubs at high elevations. *Shrub growth is correlated with <span class="hlt">warm</span> summers and <span class="hlt">winter</span> snow cover and suggests the potential for large-scale ecosystem changes if climate change continues as projected.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24132503','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24132503"><span><span class="hlt">Wintering</span> birds avoid <span class="hlt">warm</span> sunshine: predation and the costs of foraging in sunlight.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Carr, Jennie M; Lima, Steven L</p> <p>2014-03-01</p> <p><span class="hlt">Wintering</span> birds can gain significant thermal benefits by foraging in direct sunlight. However, exposure to bright sunlight might make birds easier to detect by predators and may also cause visual glare that can reduce a bird's ability to monitor the environment. Thus, birds likely experience a trade-off between the thermal benefits and predation-related costs of foraging in direct sunlight. To examine this possible thermoregulation-predation trade-off, we monitored the behavior of mixed-species flocks of <span class="hlt">wintering</span> emberizid sparrows foraging in alternating strips of sunlight and shade. On average, these sparrows routinely preferred to forage in the shade, despite midday air temperatures as much as 30 °C below their thermoneutral zone. This preference for shade was strongest at relatively high temperatures when the thermal benefits of foraging in sunlight were reduced, suggesting a thermoregulation-predation trade-off. Glare could be reduced if birds faced away from the sun while feeding in direct sunlight, but we found that foraging birds tended to face southward (the direction of the sun). We speculate that other factors, such as the likely direction of predator approach, may explain this southerly orientation, particularly if predators use solar glare to their advantage during an attack. This interpretation is supported by the fact that birds had the weakest southerly orientation on cloudy days. <span class="hlt">Wintering</span> birds may generally avoid foraging in direct sunlight to minimize their risk of predation. However, given the thermal benefits of sunshine, such birds may benefit from foraging in habitats that provide a mosaic of sunlit and shaded microhabitats.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017JGRD..122.5883J','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017JGRD..122.5883J"><span>Anthropogenic aerosol effects on East Asian <span class="hlt">winter</span> monsoon: The role of black carbon-induced Tibetan Plateau <span class="hlt">warming</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Jiang, Yiquan; Yang, Xiu-Qun; Liu, Xiaohong; Yang, Dejian; Sun, Xuguang; Wang, Minghuai; Ding, Aijun; Wang, Tijian; Fu, Congbin</p> <p>2017-06-01</p> <p>This study investigates anthropogenic aerosol effects on East Asian <span class="hlt">winter</span> monsoon (EAWM) with Community Atmospheric Model version 5. In <span class="hlt">winter</span>, the anthropogenic aerosol optical depth is the largest over southern East Asia and adjacent oceans. The associated EAWM change, however, is the most significant in northern East Asia, which is characterized by a significant surface cooling in northern East Asia and an acceleration of the jet stream around 40°N, indicating an intensification of the EAWM northern mode. Such an intensification is attributed to anthropogenic black carbon (BC)-induced Tibetan Plateau (TP) <span class="hlt">warming</span>. The BC is mostly transported from northern South Asia by wintertime westerly and southwesterly and then deposited on snow, giving rise to a reduction of surface albedo and an increase of surface air temperature via the snow-albedo feedback. The TP <span class="hlt">warming</span> increases meridional temperature gradient and lower tropospheric baroclinicity over northern East Asia, leading to the jet stream acceleration around 40°N and the westward shift of East Asian major trough via the transient eddy-mean flow feedback. Such upper tropospheric pattern favors more cold air outbreak, leading to a large surface cooling in northern East Asia. In southern East Asia, the effect of nonabsorbing aerosols is dominant. The solar flux at surface is significantly reduced directly by scattering of nonabsorbing aerosols and indirectly by intensification of short wave cloud forcing. Accordingly, the surface air temperature in southern East Asia is reduced. The precipitation is also significantly reduced in South China and Indo-China Peninsula, where the aerosol indirect effect is the largest.</p> </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_10");'>10</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_11");'>11</a></li> <li class="active"><span>12</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_13");'>13</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_14");'>14</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div><!-- col-sm-12 --> </div><!-- row --> </div><!-- page_12 --> <div id="page_13" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_11");'>11</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_12");'>12</a></li> <li class="active"><span>13</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_14");'>14</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_15");'>15</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="241"> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=5467164','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=5467164"><span><span class="hlt">Extreme</span> temperatures in Southeast Asia caused by El Niño and worsened by global <span class="hlt">warming</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Thirumalai, Kaustubh; DiNezio, Pedro N.; Okumura, Yuko; Deser, Clara</p> <p>2017-01-01</p> <p>In April 2016, southeast Asia experienced surface air temperatures (SATs) that surpassed national records, exacerbated energy consumption, disrupted agriculture and caused severe human discomfort. Here we show using observations and an ensemble of global <span class="hlt">warming</span> simulations the combined impact of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon and long-term <span class="hlt">warming</span> on regional SAT <span class="hlt">extremes</span>. We find a robust relationship between ENSO and southeast Asian SATs wherein virtually all April <span class="hlt">extremes</span> occur during El Niño years. We then quantify the relative contributions of long-term <span class="hlt">warming</span> and the 2015–16 El Niño to the <span class="hlt">extreme</span> April 2016 SATs. The results indicate that global <span class="hlt">warming</span> increases the likelihood of record-breaking April <span class="hlt">extremes</span> where we estimate that 29% of the 2016 anomaly was caused by <span class="hlt">warming</span> and 49% by El Niño. These post-Niño Aprils can potentially be anticipated a few months in advance, and thus, help societies prepare for the projected continued increases in <span class="hlt">extremes</span>. PMID:28585927</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28585927','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28585927"><span><span class="hlt">Extreme</span> temperatures in Southeast Asia caused by El Niño and worsened by global <span class="hlt">warming</span>.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Thirumalai, Kaustubh; DiNezio, Pedro N; Okumura, Yuko; Deser, Clara</p> <p>2017-06-06</p> <p>In April 2016, southeast Asia experienced surface air temperatures (SATs) that surpassed national records, exacerbated energy consumption, disrupted agriculture and caused severe human discomfort. Here we show using observations and an ensemble of global <span class="hlt">warming</span> simulations the combined impact of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon and long-term <span class="hlt">warming</span> on regional SAT <span class="hlt">extremes</span>. We find a robust relationship between ENSO and southeast Asian SATs wherein virtually all April <span class="hlt">extremes</span> occur during El Niño years. We then quantify the relative contributions of long-term <span class="hlt">warming</span> and the 2015-16 El Niño to the <span class="hlt">extreme</span> April 2016 SATs. The results indicate that global <span class="hlt">warming</span> increases the likelihood of record-breaking April <span class="hlt">extremes</span> where we estimate that 29% of the 2016 anomaly was caused by <span class="hlt">warming</span> and 49% by El Niño. These post-Niño Aprils can potentially be anticipated a few months in advance, and thus, help societies prepare for the projected continued increases in <span class="hlt">extremes</span>.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017NatCo...815531T','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017NatCo...815531T"><span><span class="hlt">Extreme</span> temperatures in Southeast Asia caused by El Niño and worsened by global <span class="hlt">warming</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Thirumalai, Kaustubh; Dinezio, Pedro N.; Okumura, Yuko; Deser, Clara</p> <p>2017-06-01</p> <p>In April 2016, southeast Asia experienced surface air temperatures (SATs) that surpassed national records, exacerbated energy consumption, disrupted agriculture and caused severe human discomfort. Here we show using observations and an ensemble of global <span class="hlt">warming</span> simulations the combined impact of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon and long-term <span class="hlt">warming</span> on regional SAT <span class="hlt">extremes</span>. We find a robust relationship between ENSO and southeast Asian SATs wherein virtually all April <span class="hlt">extremes</span> occur during El Niño years. We then quantify the relative contributions of long-term <span class="hlt">warming</span> and the 2015-16 El Niño to the <span class="hlt">extreme</span> April 2016 SATs. The results indicate that global <span class="hlt">warming</span> increases the likelihood of record-breaking April <span class="hlt">extremes</span> where we estimate that 29% of the 2016 anomaly was caused by <span class="hlt">warming</span> and 49% by El Niño. These post-Niño Aprils can potentially be anticipated a few months in advance, and thus, help societies prepare for the projected continued increases in <span class="hlt">extremes</span>.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017NatCC...7..568W','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017NatCC...7..568W"><span>Continued increase of <span class="hlt">extreme</span> El Niño frequency long after 1.5 °C <span class="hlt">warming</span> stabilization</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Wang, Guojian; Cai, Wenju; Gan, Bolan; Wu, Lixin; Santoso, Agus; Lin, Xiaopei; Chen, Zhaohui; McPhaden, Michael J.</p> <p>2017-08-01</p> <p>The Paris Agreement aims to constrain global mean temperature (GMT) increases to 2 °C above pre-industrial levels, with an aspirational target of 1.5 °C. However, the pathway to these targets and the impacts of a 1.5 °C and 2 °C <span class="hlt">warming</span> on <span class="hlt">extreme</span> El Niño and La Niña events--which severely influence weather patterns, agriculture, ecosystems, public health and economies--is little known. Here, by analysing climate models participating in the Climate Model Intercomparison Project's Phase 5 (CMIP5; ref. ) under a most likely emission scenario, we demonstrate that <span class="hlt">extreme</span> El Niño frequency increases linearly with the GMT towards a doubling at 1.5 °C <span class="hlt">warming</span>. This increasing frequency of <span class="hlt">extreme</span> El Niño events continues for up to a century after GMT has stabilized, underpinned by an oceanic thermocline deepening that sustains faster <span class="hlt">warming</span> in the eastern equatorial Pacific than the off-equatorial region. Ultimately, this implies a higher risk of <span class="hlt">extreme</span> El Niño to future generations after GMT rise has halted. On the other hand, whereas previous research suggests <span class="hlt">extreme</span> La Niña events may double in frequency under the 4.5 °C <span class="hlt">warming</span> scenario, the results presented here indicate little to no change under 1.5 °C or 2 °C <span class="hlt">warming</span>.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFMGC43A1158S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFMGC43A1158S"><span>Global-<span class="hlt">warming</span>-induced Increases in <span class="hlt">Extreme</span> Precipitation are Smallest over Mountains</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Shi, X.; Durran, D. R.</p> <p>2015-12-01</p> <p>Climate-model simulations predict an intensification of <span class="hlt">extreme</span> precipitation in almost all areas of the world under global <span class="hlt">warming</span>. Geographical variations in the magnitude of this intensification are clearly evident in the simulations, but most previous efforts to understand the factors responsible for the changes in <span class="hlt">extreme</span> precipitation have focused on zonal averages, neglecting the variations that occur in different regions at the same latitude. Here we present climate-model simulations for an ocean-covered earth having simple idealized continents with north-south mountain barriers in its northern midlatitudes. We show that the sensitivity of <span class="hlt">extreme</span> precipitation to increases in the global mean surface temperature is 3 %/K lower over the mountains than over the oceans and the plains. Fundamental factors responsible for changes in precipitation intensity may be divided between thermodynamic effects, arising through changes in temperature and moisture, and dynamical effects, produced by changes in the ascent rates of saturated air parcels. The difference in sensitivity among these regions is not due to thermodynamic effects, but rather to differences between the gravity-wave dynamics governing vertical velocities over the mountains and the cyclone dynamics governing vertical motions over the oceans and plains.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=2246132','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=2246132"><span>Surviving <span class="hlt">extreme</span> polar <span class="hlt">winters</span> by desiccation: clues from Arctic springtail (Onychiurus arcticus) EST libraries</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Clark, Melody S; Thorne, Michael AS; Purać, Jelena; Grubor-Lajšić, Gordana; Kube, Michael; Reinhardt, Richard; Worland, M Roger</p> <p>2007-01-01</p> <p>Background Ice, snow and temperatures of -14°C are conditions which most animals would find difficult, if not impossible, to survive in. However this exactly describes the Arctic <span class="hlt">winter</span>, and the Arctic springtail Onychiurus arcticus regularly survives these <span class="hlt">extreme</span> conditions and re-emerges in the spring. It is able to do this by reducing the amount of water in its body to almost zero: a process that is called "protective dehydration". The aim of this project was to generate clones and sequence data in the form of ESTs to provide a platform for the future molecular characterisation of the processes involved in protective dehydration. Results Five normalised libraries were produced from both desiccating and rehydrating populations of O. arcticus from stages that had previously been defined as potentially informative for molecular analyses. A total of 16,379 EST clones were generated and analysed using Blast and GO annotation. 40% of the clones produced significant matches against the Swissprot and trembl databases and these were further analysed using GO annotation. Extraction and analysis of GO annotations proved an <span class="hlt">extremely</span> effective method for identifying generic processes associated with biochemical pathways, proving more efficient than solely analysing Blast data output. A number of genes were identified, which have previously been shown to be involved in water transport and desiccation such as members of the aquaporin family. Identification of these clones in specific libraries associated with desiccation validates the computational analysis by library rather than producing a global overview of all libraries combined. Conclusion This paper describes for the first time EST data from the arctic springtail (O. arcticus). This significantly enhances the number of Collembolan ESTs in the public databases, providing useful comparative data within this phylum. The use of GO annotation for analysis has facilitated the identification of a wide variety of ESTs</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016JGRD..12112282K','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016JGRD..12112282K"><span>Modulations of aerosol impacts on cloud microphysics induced by the <span class="hlt">warm</span> Kuroshio Current under the East Asian <span class="hlt">winter</span> monsoon</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Koike, M.; Asano, N.; Nakamura, H.; Sakai, S.; Nagao, T. M.; Nakajima, T. Y.</p> <p>2016-10-01</p> <p>In our previous aircraft observations, the possible influence of high sea surface temperature (SST) along the Kuroshio Current on aerosol-cloud interactions over the western North Pacific was revealed. The cloud droplet number concentration (Nc) was found to increase with decreasing near-surface static stability (NSS), which was evaluated locally as the difference between the SST and surface air temperature (SAT). To explore the spatial and temporal extent to which this <span class="hlt">warm</span> SST influence can be operative, the present study analyzed Nc values estimated from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite measurements. The comparison of the local Nc values between the high and low SST - SAT days revealed a marked increase in Nc (up to a factor of 1.8) along the Kuroshio Current in the southern East China Sea, where particularly high SST - SAT values (up to 8 K) were observed in <span class="hlt">winter</span> under monsoonal cold air outflows from the Asian Continent. This cold airflow destabilizes the atmospheric boundary layer, which leads to enhanced updraft velocities within the well-developed mixed layer and thus greater Nc. The monsoonal northwesterlies also bring a large amount of anthropogenic aerosols from the Asian continent that increase Nc in the first place. These results suggest that the same modulations of cloud microphysics can occur over other <span class="hlt">warm</span> western boundary currents, including the Gulf Stream, under polluted cool continental airflows. Possibilities of influencing the cloud liquid water path are also discussed.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3400059','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3400059"><span>Understanding factors influencing vulnerable older people keeping <span class="hlt">warm</span> and well in <span class="hlt">winter</span>: a qualitative study using social marketing techniques</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Lusambili, Adelaide; Homer, Catherine; Abbott, Joanne; Cooke, Joanne Mary; Stocks, Amanda Jayne; McDaid, Kathleen Anne</p> <p>2012-01-01</p> <p>Objectives To understand the influences and decisions of vulnerable older people in relation to keeping <span class="hlt">warm</span> in <span class="hlt">winter</span>. Design A qualitative study incorporating in-depth, semi-structured individual and group interviews, framework analysis and social marketing segmentation techniques. Setting Rotherham, South Yorkshire, UK. Participants 50 older people (>55) and 25 health and social care staff underwent individual interview. The older people also had household temperature measurements. 24 older people and 19 health and social care staff participated in one of the six group interviews. Results Multiple complex factors emerged to explain whether vulnerable older people were able to keep <span class="hlt">warm</span>. These influences combined in various ways that meant older people were not able to or preferred not to access help or change home heating behaviour. Factors influencing behaviours and decisions relating to use of heating, spending money, accessing cheaper tariffs, accessing benefits or asking for help fell into three main categories. These were situational and contextual factors, attitudes and values, and barriers. Barriers included poor knowledge and awareness, technology, disjointed systems and the invisibility of fuel and fuel payment. Findings formed the basis of a social marketing segmentation model used to develop six pen portraits that illustrated how factors that conspire against older people being able to keep <span class="hlt">warm</span>. Conclusions The findings illustrate how and why vulnerable older people may be at risk of a cold home. The pen portraits provide an accessible vehicle and reflective tool to raise the capacity of the NHS in responding to their needs in line with the Cold Weather Plan. PMID:22798252</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFM.A51C0061M','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFM.A51C0061M"><span>Wave events: climatology and relationship to Northern Hemisphere <span class="hlt">winter</span> blocking and weather <span class="hlt">extremes</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Martineau, P.; Chen, G.; Burrrows, D. A.</p> <p>2016-12-01</p> <p>Diagnostics of finite amplitude Local Wave Activity (LWA) are applied on the 500-hPa geopotential height field to diagnose events of anomalously large wave activity in the Norther Hemisphere. By considering the cyclonic and anticyclonic components of LWA separately, persistent weather systems associated to large-amplitude troughs and ridges are detected. While anticyclonic wave events are predominantly found over Europe and Alaska, cyclonic wave events are usually occurring over East-Asia and Northern-Canada. Those preferred regions correspond to the location of planetary-scale ridges and troughs, which contribute, together with transient anomalies, to the formation of wave events. Although wave events are not blocking events per definition, they are typically associated with increased blocking in their vicinity. Their spatial relationship to blocking, however, varies depending on their cyclonic or anticyclonic nature and the type of wave-breaking signature. Wave events are also shown to be associated with marked increases in the likelihood of <span class="hlt">warm</span> and cold temperature <span class="hlt">extremes</span>. Furthermore, a significant modulation of the incidence of wave events by the major modes of climate variability is detected with an observed poleward shift of European wave events and an increase in cyclonic wave events over East-Asia during negative Arctic Oscillation phases, possibly explaining a recent positive trend in their frequency.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFM.A11E0058X','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFM.A11E0058X"><span>GHG <span class="hlt">warming</span> impact on the removal and transport of particulate matter: mean and <span class="hlt">extreme</span> pollution</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Xu, Y.; Lamarque, J. F.</p> <p>2016-12-01</p> <p>Particulate matter with a diameter smaller than 2.5 micrometers (PM2.5) poses health threats to human populations. Regardless of efforts to regulate the pollution sources, it is unclear how climate change caused by greenhouse gases (GHGs) would affect PM2.5 levels. Using century-long ensemble simulations with a chemistry-climate model, we show that, if the anthropogenic emissions would remain at the level in the year 2005, the global surface concentration and atmospheric column burden of sulfate, black carbon, and primary organic carbon would still increase by 5-10% at the end of 21st century (2090-2100) due to global <span class="hlt">warming</span> alone. The decrease in the wet removal flux of PM2.5, despite an increase in global precipitation, is the main cause for the increase in the PM2.5 column burden. Regionally, over North America and East Asia, the shift of future precipitation toward heavy intensity events, contributes to weakened wet removal flux. With the daily PM2.5 output, we also find that the well-known poleward shift of jet stream under global <span class="hlt">warming</span> contributes to more frequent stagnation events (and less frequent cyclone passages) in northern hemispheric mid-latitude, which further enhances the occurrence of <span class="hlt">extreme</span> pollution events.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016GeoRL..4311445P','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016GeoRL..4311445P"><span>The link between <span class="hlt">extreme</span> precipitation and convective organization in a <span class="hlt">warming</span> climate: Global radiative-convective equilibrium simulations</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Pendergrass, Angeline G.; Reed, Kevin A.; Medeiros, Brian</p> <p>2016-11-01</p> <p>The rate of increase of <span class="hlt">extreme</span> precipitation in response to global <span class="hlt">warming</span> varies dramatically across climate model simulations, particularly over the tropics, for reasons that have yet to be established. Here we propose one potential mechanism: changing organization of convection with climate. We analyze a set of simulations with the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 with an idealized global radiative-convective equilibrium configuration forced by fixed sea surface temperatures varying in 2° increments from 285 to 307 K. In these simulations, convective organization varies from semiorganized in cold simulations, disorganized in <span class="hlt">warm</span> simulations, and abruptly becomes highly organized at just over 300 K. The change in <span class="hlt">extreme</span> precipitation with <span class="hlt">warming</span> also varies across these simulations, including a large increase at the transition from disorganized to organized convection. We develop an <span class="hlt">extreme</span> precipitation-focused metric for convective organization and use this to explore their connection.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26934985','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26934985"><span>Thermal reactionomes reveal divergent responses to thermal <span class="hlt">extremes</span> in <span class="hlt">warm</span> and cool-climate ant species.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Stanton-Geddes, John; Nguyen, Andrew; Chick, Lacy; Vincent, James; Vangala, Mahesh; Dunn, Robert R; Ellison, Aaron M; Sanders, Nathan J; Gotelli, Nicholas J; Cahan, Sara Helms</p> <p>2016-03-02</p> <p>The distributions of species and their responses to climate change are in part determined by their thermal tolerances. However, little is known about how thermal tolerance evolves. To test whether evolutionary extension of thermal limits is accomplished through enhanced cellular stress response (enhanced response), constitutively elevated expression of protective genes (genetic assimilation) or a shift from damage resistance to passive mechanisms of thermal stability (tolerance), we conducted an analysis of the reactionome: the reaction norm for all genes in an organism's transcriptome measured across an experimental gradient. We characterized thermal reactionomes of two common ant species in the eastern U.S, the northern cool-climate Aphaenogaster picea and the southern <span class="hlt">warm</span>-climate Aphaenogaster carolinensis, across 12 temperatures that spanned their entire thermal breadth. We found that at least 2 % of all genes changed expression with temperature. The majority of upregulation was specific to exposure to low temperatures. The cool-adapted A. picea induced expression of more genes in response to <span class="hlt">extreme</span> temperatures than did A. carolinensis, consistent with the enhanced response hypothesis. In contrast, under high temperatures the <span class="hlt">warm</span>-adapted A. carolinensis downregulated many of the genes upregulated in A. picea, and required more <span class="hlt">extreme</span> temperatures to induce down-regulation in gene expression, consistent with the tolerance hypothesis. We found no evidence for a trade-off between constitutive and inducible gene expression as predicted by the genetic assimilation hypothesis. These results suggest that increases in upper thermal limits may require an evolutionary shift in response mechanism away from damage repair toward tolerance and prevention.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=5381411','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=5381411"><span>More-frequent <span class="hlt">extreme</span> northward shifts of eastern Indian Ocean tropical convergence under greenhouse <span class="hlt">warming</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Weller, Evan; Cai, Wenju; Min, Seung-Ki; Wu, Lixin; Ashok, Karumuri; Yamagata, Toshio</p> <p>2014-01-01</p> <p>The Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) in the tropical eastern Indian Ocean exhibits strong interannual variability, often co-occurring with positive Indian Ocean Dipole (pIOD) events. During what we identify as an <span class="hlt">extreme</span> ITCZ event, a drastic northward shift of atmospheric convection coincides with an anomalously strong north-minus-south sea surface temperature (SST) gradient over the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean. Such shifts lead to severe droughts over the maritime continent and surrounding islands but also devastating floods in southern parts of the Indian subcontinent. Understanding future changes of the ITCZ is therefore of major scientific and socioeconomic interest. Here we find a more-than-doubling in the frequency of <span class="hlt">extreme</span> ITCZ events under greenhouse <span class="hlt">warming</span>, estimated from climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 that are able to simulate such events. The increase is due to a mean state change with an enhanced north-minus-south SST gradient and a weakened Walker Circulation, facilitating smaller perturbations to shift the ITCZ northwards. PMID:25124737</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25124737','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25124737"><span>More-frequent <span class="hlt">extreme</span> northward shifts of eastern Indian Ocean tropical convergence under greenhouse <span class="hlt">warming</span>.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Weller, Evan; Cai, Wenju; Min, Seung-Ki; Wu, Lixin; Ashok, Karumuri; Yamagata, Toshio</p> <p>2014-08-15</p> <p>The Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) in the tropical eastern Indian Ocean exhibits strong interannual variability, often co-occurring with positive Indian Ocean Dipole (pIOD) events. During what we identify as an <span class="hlt">extreme</span> ITCZ event, a drastic northward shift of atmospheric convection coincides with an anomalously strong north-minus-south sea surface temperature (SST) gradient over the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean. Such shifts lead to severe droughts over the maritime continent and surrounding islands but also devastating floods in southern parts of the Indian subcontinent. Understanding future changes of the ITCZ is therefore of major scientific and socioeconomic interest. Here we find a more-than-doubling in the frequency of <span class="hlt">extreme</span> ITCZ events under greenhouse <span class="hlt">warming</span>, estimated from climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 that are able to simulate such events. The increase is due to a mean state change with an enhanced north-minus-south SST gradient and a weakened Walker Circulation, facilitating smaller perturbations to shift the ITCZ northwards.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014EGUGA..16.4752H','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014EGUGA..16.4752H"><span>Analysis on seasonal retreat of Siberian high in association with that of the <span class="hlt">extremely</span> cold Siberian air mass from <span class="hlt">winter</span> to spring</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Hamaki, Tatsuya; Haga, Yuichi; Kato, Kuranoshin</p> <p>2014-05-01</p> <p>According to Kato et al.(2009), the seasonal increase in surface air temperature in the Japan Islands area attains the maximum due to the rapid weakening of the <span class="hlt">winter</span> time large-scale circulation pattern from late March to early April. Although the rapid decrease in the appearance frequency of the daily Siberian high at that time was pointed out by them, seasonal retreat process of the the Siberian high and the Siberian air mass including in the their day-to-day variations from <span class="hlt">winter</span> to spring have not been systematically understood yet. Thus the present study will examine the above phenomena by using mainly the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and the daily weather maps at the surface level provided by JMA. Although the climatological analyses are need in the future, the present study will perform a case study for the several years, 1984(cold <span class="hlt">winter</span>), 2007(<span class="hlt">warm</span> <span class="hlt">winter</span>) and 2011(normal <span class="hlt">winter</span>). The area with high appearance frequency of the surface anticyclone with its center pressure more than 1032hPa (roughly corresponding to the Siberian high) was found around 40N~60N/90~120E (including Lake Baykal area (50~55N/105~110E)) in January and February. Interestingly, the latitude of that high appearance area was not so changed in March. Furthermore its frequency decreased rapidly with its maximum latitude unchanged in April. However, while the high frequency area was mainly located in the colder region with 850hPa temperature (T850) lower than -15 degrees Celsius in January and February wider part of the area with high appearance frequency of the intense anticyclone distributed in the baroclinic zone with T850 higher than -15 degrees Celsius. In April, the -15 degrees Celsius isotherm of T850 moved further northward to ~60N, although the maximum frequency of the anticyclone was seen along ~50N. In addition, although the anticyclone associated with the daily Siberian high showed rather quasi-stationary-like character also in March (as well as in midwinter), the storm track</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27612326','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27612326"><span>Press-pulse interactions: effects of <span class="hlt">warming</span>, N deposition, altered <span class="hlt">winter</span> precipitation, and fire on desert grassland community structure and dynamics.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Collins, Scott L; Ladwig, Laura M; Petrie, Matthew D; Jones, Sydney K; Mulhouse, John M; Thibault, James R; Pockman, William T</p> <p>2017-03-01</p> <p>Global environmental change is altering temperature, precipitation patterns, resource availability, and disturbance regimes. Theory predicts that ecological presses will interact with pulse events to alter ecosystem structure and function. In 2006, we established a long-term, multifactor global change experiment to determine the interactive effects of nighttime <span class="hlt">warming</span>, increased atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition, and increased <span class="hlt">winter</span> precipitation on plant community structure and aboveground net primary production (ANPP) in a northern Chihuahuan Desert grassland. In 2009, a lightning-caused wildfire burned through the experiment. Here, we report on the interactive effects of these global change drivers on pre- and postfire grassland community structure and ANPP. Our nighttime <span class="hlt">warming</span> treatment increased <span class="hlt">winter</span> nighttime air temperatures by an average of 1.1 °C and summer nighttime air temperature by 1.5 °C. Soil N availability was 2.5 times higher in fertilized compared with control plots. Average soil volumetric water content (VWC) in <span class="hlt">winter</span> was slightly but significantly higher (13.0% vs. 11.0%) in plots receiving added <span class="hlt">winter</span> rain relative to controls, and VWC was slightly higher in <span class="hlt">warmed</span> (14.5%) compared with control (13.5%) plots during the growing season even though surface soil temperatures were significantly higher in <span class="hlt">warmed</span> plots. Despite these significant treatment effects, ANPP and plant community structure were highly resistant to these global change drivers prior to the fire. Burning reduced the cover of the dominant grasses by more than 75%. Following the fire, forb species richness and biomass increased significantly, particularly in <span class="hlt">warmed</span>, fertilized plots that received additional <span class="hlt">winter</span> precipitation. Thus, although unburned grassland showed little initial response to multiple ecological presses, our results demonstrate how a single pulse disturbance can interact with chronic alterations in resource availability to increase ecosystem</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013JGRD..118.3919E','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013JGRD..118.3919E"><span>Impacts of global <span class="hlt">warming</span> on Northern Hemisphere <span class="hlt">winter</span> storm tracks in the CMIP5 model suite</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Eichler, Timothy Paul; Gaggini, Natalie; Pan, Zaitao</p> <p>2013-05-01</p> <p>key question in assessing how global <span class="hlt">warming</span> may affect climate is how it may impact day-to-day weather. To help answer this question, we evaluate the frequency and intensity of northern hemisphere storm tracks in the National Center for Climate Prediction reanalysis I dataset, and the historical, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 climate scenarios featured in the CMIP5 simulations. We found that a warmer climate resulted in a general decrease in storm frequency in midlatitudes, especially in RCP8.5. In contrast, frequency trends in the reanalysis data reflected an increase in the North Pacific consistent with a shift towards a positive Pacific Decadal Oscillation and more frequent El Niño events post mid-1970s. An examination of frequency and intensity trends in the active storm track regions of the North Pacific and North Atlantic showed that a significant decrease in storm track frequency was evident for RCP8.5. In contrast, intensity trends were dichotomous, with RCP8.5 exhibiting an increase in intensity in the North Atlantic active storm track region and a decrease in intensity in the North Pacific active storm track region. Poleward of these regions, a significant decrease in storm intensity in the North Atlantic and a significant increase in intensity in the North Pacific in RCP8.5 occurred. We also examined the intensity distribution of storms in the active storm track regions of the North Atlantic and North Pacific and determined that the models produced weaker storms with reduced variability relative to reanalysis data regardless of external climate forcing.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016ClDy...46.2115R','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016ClDy...46.2115R"><span>Variability in projected elevation dependent <span class="hlt">warming</span> in boreal midlatitude <span class="hlt">winter</span> in CMIP5 climate models and its potential drivers</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Rangwala, Imtiaz; Sinsky, Eric; Miller, James R.</p> <p>2016-04-01</p> <p>The future rate of climate change in mountains has many potential human impacts, including those related to water resources, ecosystem services, and recreation. Analysis of the ensemble mean response of CMIP5 global climate models (GCMs) shows amplified <span class="hlt">warming</span> in high elevation regions during the cold season in boreal midlatitudes. We examine how the twenty-first century elevation-dependent response in the daily minimum surface air temperature [d(ΔTmin)/dz] varies among 27 different GCMs during <span class="hlt">winter</span> for the RCP 8.5 emissions scenario. The focus is on regions within the northern hemisphere mid-latitude band between 27.5°N and 40°N, which includes both the Rocky Mountains and the Tibetan Plateau/Himalayas. We find significant variability in d(ΔTmin)/dz among the individual models ranging from 0.16 °C/km (10th percentile) to 0.97 °C/km (90th percentile), although nearly all of the GCMs (24 out of 27) show a significant positive value for d(ΔTmin)/dz. To identify some of the important drivers associated with the variability in d(ΔTmin)/dz during <span class="hlt">winter</span>, we evaluate the co-variance between d(ΔTmin)/dz and the differential response of elevation-based anomalies in different climate variables as well as the GCMs' spatial resolution, their global climate sensitivity, and their elevation-dependent free air temperature response. We find that d(ΔTmin)/dz has the strongest correlation with elevation-dependent increases in surface water vapor, followed by elevation-dependent decreases in surface albedo, and a weak positive correlation with the GCMs' free air temperature response.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFM.A43C0238T','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFM.A43C0238T"><span><span class="hlt">Extreme</span> April 2016 temperatures in Mainland Southeast Asia caused by El Niño and exacerbated by global <span class="hlt">warming</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Thirumalai, K.; Di Nezio, P. N.; Okumura, Y.; Deser, C.</p> <p>2016-12-01</p> <p>In April 2016, Mainland Southeast Asia (MSA) experienced monthly mean surface air temperatures (SATs) that surpassed national records, caused widespread discomfort, and greatly exacerbated energy consumption. First, we reveal a robust relationship between the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and April SATs in the region, demonstrating that virtually all <span class="hlt">extreme</span>, hot Aprils occur during El Niño years. Next, we show that MSA has experienced continuous <span class="hlt">warming</span> since the early 20th century. To quantify the relative contributions of this long-term <span class="hlt">warming</span> trend and the 2015 El Niño to the <span class="hlt">extreme</span> April 2016 SATs, we use observations and a large ensemble of global <span class="hlt">warming</span> simulations, performed with a model that realistically simulates this El-Niño-MSA link. We find robust evidence that the "post-Niño" hot Aprils are being exacerbated by global <span class="hlt">warming</span>, with this effect being pronounced for the 2016 event, where we estimate 24% was caused by <span class="hlt">warming</span> and 49% by El Niño. Despite an increased likelihood of hot Aprils during El Niño years in the future, our findings suggest that these <span class="hlt">extremes</span> can potentially be anticipated a few months in advance.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013AGUFMPA21B1869C','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013AGUFMPA21B1869C"><span>Communicating Climate Uncertainties: Challenges and Opportunities Related to Spatial Scales, <span class="hlt">Extreme</span> Events, and the <span class="hlt">Warming</span> 'Hiatus'</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Casola, J. H.; Huber, D.</p> <p>2013-12-01</p> <p>Many media, academic, government, and advocacy organizations have achieved sophistication in developing effective messages based on scientific information, and can quickly translate salient aspects of emerging climate research and evolving observations. However, there are several ways in which valid messages can be misconstrued by decision makers, leading them to inaccurate conclusions about the risks associated with climate impacts. Three cases will be discussed: 1) Issues of spatial scale in interpreting climate observations: Local climate observations may contradict summary statements about the effects of climate change on larger regional or global spatial scales. Effectively addressing these differences often requires communicators to understand local and regional climate drivers, and the distinction between a 'signal' associated with climate change and local climate 'noise.' Hydrological statistics in Missouri and California are shown to illustrate this case. 2) Issues of complexity related to <span class="hlt">extreme</span> events: Climate change is typically invoked following a wide range of damaging meteorological events (e.g., heat waves, landfalling hurricanes, tornadoes), regardless of the strength of the relationship between anthropogenic climate change and the frequency or severity of that type of event. Examples are drawn from media coverage of several recent events, contrasting useful and potentially confusing word choices and frames. 3) Issues revolving around climate sensitivity: The so-called 'pause' or 'hiatus' in global <span class="hlt">warming</span> has reverberated strongly through political and business discussions of climate change. Addressing the recent slowdown in <span class="hlt">warming</span> yields an important opportunity to raise climate literacy in these communities. Attempts to use recent observations as a wedge between climate 'believers' and 'deniers' is likely to be counterproductive. Examples are drawn from Congressional testimony and media stories. All three cases illustrate ways that decision</p> </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_11");'>11</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_12");'>12</a></li> <li class="active"><span>13</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_14");'>14</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_15");'>15</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div><!-- col-sm-12 --> </div><!-- row --> </div><!-- page_13 --> <div id="page_14" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_12");'>12</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_13");'>13</a></li> <li class="active"><span>14</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_15");'>15</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_16");'>16</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="261"> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AtmRe.168...33S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AtmRe.168...33S"><span>Changes in <span class="hlt">extreme</span> temperature and precipitation events in the Loess Plateau (China) during 1960-2013 under global <span class="hlt">warming</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Sun, Wenyi; Mu, Xingmin; Song, Xiaoyan; Wu, Dan; Cheng, Aifang; Qiu, Bing</p> <p>2016-02-01</p> <p>In recent decades, <span class="hlt">extreme</span> climatic events have been a major issue worldwide. Regional assessments on various climates and geographic regions are needed for understanding uncertainties in <span class="hlt">extreme</span> events' responses to global <span class="hlt">warming</span>. The objective of this study was to assess the annual and decadal trends in 12 <span class="hlt">extreme</span> temperature and 10 <span class="hlt">extreme</span> precipitation indices in terms of intensity, frequency, and duration over the Loess Plateau during 1960-2013. The results indicated that the regionally averaged trends in temperature <span class="hlt">extremes</span> were consistent with global <span class="hlt">warming</span>. The occurrence of <span class="hlt">warm</span> <span class="hlt">extremes</span>, including summer days (SU), tropical nights (TR), <span class="hlt">warm</span> days (TX90), and nights (TN90) and a <span class="hlt">warm</span> spell duration indicator (WSDI), increased by 2.76 (P < 0.01), 1.24 (P < 0.01), 2.60 (P = 0.0003), 3.41 (P < 0.01), and 0.68 (P = 0.0041) days/decade during the period of 1960-2013, particularly, sharp increases in these indices occurred in 1985-2000. Over the same period, the occurrence of cold <span class="hlt">extremes</span>, including frost days (FD), ice days (ID), cold days (TX10) and nights (TN10), and a cold spell duration indicator (CSDI) exhibited decreases of - 3.22 (P < 0.01), - 2.21 (P = 0.0028), - 2.71 (P = 0.0028), - 4.31 (P < 0.01), and - 0.69 (P = 0.0951) days/decade, respectively. Moreover, <span class="hlt">extreme</span> <span class="hlt">warm</span> events in most regions tended to increase while cold indices tended to decrease in the Loess Plateau, but the trend magnitudes of cold <span class="hlt">extremes</span> were greater than those of <span class="hlt">warm</span> <span class="hlt">extremes</span>. The growing season (GSL) in the Loess Plateau was lengthened at a rate of 3.16 days/decade (P < 0.01). Diurnal temperature range (DTR) declined at a rate of - 0.06 °C /decade (P = 0.0931). Regarding the precipitation indices, the annual total precipitation (PRCPTOT) showed no obvious trends (P = 0.7828). The regionally averaged daily rainfall intensity (SDII) exhibited significant decreases (- 0.14 mm/day/decade, P = 0.0158), whereas consecutive dry days (CDD) significantly increased (1.96 days</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20380305','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20380305"><span>Effects of <span class="hlt">warm</span> <span class="hlt">winter</span> temperature on the abundance and gonotrophic activity of Culex (Diptera: Culicidae) in California.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Reisen, William K; Thiemann, Tara; Barker, Christopher M; Lu, Helen; Carroll, Brian; Fang, Ying; Lothrop, Hugh D</p> <p>2010-03-01</p> <p>Culex tarsalis Coquillett, Cx. quinquefasciatus Say, and Cx. pipiens L. were collected during the <span class="hlt">warm</span> <span class="hlt">winter</span> of 2009 using dry ice-baited and gravid traps and walk-in red boxes positioned in desert, urban, and agricultural habitats in Riverside, Los Angeles, Kern, and Yolo Counties. Temperatures exceeded the preceding 50 yr averages in all locations for most of January, whereas rainfall was absent or below average. Abundance of Culex species in traps during January ranged from 83 to 671% of the prior 5 yr average in all locations. Few females collected resting were in diapause during January based on follicular measurements. Evidence for early season gonotrophic activity included the detection of freshly bloodfed, gravid, and parous females in resting collections, gravid oviposition site-seeking females in gravid female traps, and nulliparous and parous host-seeking females at dry ice-baited traps. Female Culex seemed to employ multiple overwintering strategies in California, including larval and adult quiescence, adult female diapause, and an intermediate situation with adult females collected with enlarged follicles, but without evident vitellogenesis. West Nile, St. Louis, or western equine encephalitis viruses were not detected in 198 pools of adults or 56 pools of adults reared from field-collected immatures collected during January and February 2009. Our preliminary data may provide insight into how climate change may extend the mosquito season in California.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4052348','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4052348"><span>Moving in <span class="hlt">extreme</span> environments: open water swimming in cold and <span class="hlt">warm</span> water</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p></p> <p>2014-01-01</p> <p>Open water swimming (OWS), either ‘wild’ such as river swimming or competitive, is a fast growing pastime as well as a part of events such as triathlons. Little evidence is available on which to base high and low water temperature limits. Also, due to factors such as acclimatisation, which disassociates thermal sensation and comfort from thermal state, individuals cannot be left to monitor their own physical condition during swims. Deaths have occurred during OWS; these have been due to not only thermal responses but also cardiac problems. This paper, which is part of a series on ‘Moving in <span class="hlt">Extreme</span> Environments’, briefly reviews current understanding in pertinent topics associated with OWS. Guidelines are presented for the organisation of open water events to minimise risk, and it is concluded that more information on the responses to immersion in cold and <span class="hlt">warm</span> water, the causes of the individual variation in these responses and the precursors to the cardiac events that appear to be the primary cause of death in OWS events will help make this enjoyable sport even safer. PMID:24921042</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24921042','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24921042"><span>Moving in <span class="hlt">extreme</span> environments: open water swimming in cold and <span class="hlt">warm</span> water.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Tipton, Michael; Bradford, Carl</p> <p>2014-01-01</p> <p>Open water swimming (OWS), either 'wild' such as river swimming or competitive, is a fast growing pastime as well as a part of events such as triathlons. Little evidence is available on which to base high and low water temperature limits. Also, due to factors such as acclimatisation, which disassociates thermal sensation and comfort from thermal state, individuals cannot be left to monitor their own physical condition during swims. Deaths have occurred during OWS; these have been due to not only thermal responses but also cardiac problems. This paper, which is part of a series on 'Moving in <span class="hlt">Extreme</span> Environments', briefly reviews current understanding in pertinent topics associated with OWS. Guidelines are presented for the organisation of open water events to minimise risk, and it is concluded that more information on the responses to immersion in cold and <span class="hlt">warm</span> water, the causes of the individual variation in these responses and the precursors to the cardiac events that appear to be the primary cause of death in OWS events will help make this enjoyable sport even safer.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2006AnGeo..24.2493M','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2006AnGeo..24.2493M"><span><span class="hlt">Winter</span> <span class="hlt">warmings</span>, tides and planetary waves: comparisions between CMAM (with interactive chemistry) and MFR-MetO observations and data</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Manson, A. H.; Meek, C.; Chshyolkova, T.; Mclandress, C.; Avery, S. K.; Fritts, D. C.; Hall, C. M.; Hocking, W. K.; Igarashi, K.; Macdougall, J. W.; Murayama, Y.; Riggin, D. C.; Thorsen, D.; Vincent, R. A.</p> <p>2006-10-01</p> <p>Following earlier comparisons using the Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model (CMAM, without interactive chemistry), the dynamical characteristics of the model are assessed with interactive chemistry activated. Time-sequences of temperatures and winds at Tromsø (70° N) show that the model has more frequent and earlier stratospheric <span class="hlt">winter</span> <span class="hlt">warmings</span> than typically observed. Wavelets at mesospheric heights (76, 85 km) and from equator to polar regions show that CMAM tides are generally larger, but planetary waves (PW) smaller, than medium frequency (MF) radar-derived values. Tides modelled for eight geographic locations during the four seasons are not strikingly different from the earlier CMAM experiment; although monthly data now allow these detailed seasonal variations (local combinations of migrating and non-migrating components) within the mesosphere (circa 50-80 km) to be demonstrated for the first time. The dominant semi-diurnal tide of middle latitudes is, as in the earlier papers, quite well realized in CMAM. Regarding the diurnal tide, it is shown here and in an earlier study by one of the authors, that the main characteristics of the diurnal tide at low latitudes (where the S (1,1) mode dominates) are well captured by the model. However, in this experiment there are some other unobserved features for the diurnal tide, which are quite similar to those noted in the earlier CMAM experiment: low latitude amplitudes are larger than observed at 82 km, and middle latitudes feature an unobserved low altitude (73 km) summer maximum. Phases, especially at low and middle (circa 42° N) latitudes, do not match observations well. Mesospheric seasonal tidal variations available from the CUJO (Canada U.S. Japan Opportunity) radar (MFR) network (sites 40-45° N) reveal interesting longitudinal differences between the CMAM and the MFR observations. In addition, model and observations differ in the character of the vertical phase variations at each network-location. Finally, the</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2009ClDy...32..969F','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2009ClDy...32..969F"><span>North Pacific cyclonic and anticyclonic transients in a global <span class="hlt">warming</span> context: possible consequences for Western North American daily precipitation and temperature <span class="hlt">extremes</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Favre, Alice; Gershunov, Alexander</p> <p>2009-06-01</p> <p>Trajectories of surface cyclones and anticyclones were constructed using an automated scheme by tracking local minima and maxima of mean daily sea level pressure data in the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis and the Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques coupled global climate Model (CNRM-CM3) SRES A2 integration. Mid-latitude lows and highs traveling in the North Pacific were tracked and daily frequencies were gridded. Transient activity in the CNRM-CM3 historical simulation (1950-1999) was validated against reanalysis. The GCM correctly reproduces <span class="hlt">winter</span> trajectories as well as mean geographical distributions of cyclones and anticyclones over the North Pacific in spite of a general under-estimation of cyclones’ frequency. On inter-annual time scales, frequencies of cyclones and anticyclones vary in accordance with the Aleutian Low (AL) strength. When the AL is stronger (weaker), cyclones are more (less) numerous over the central and eastern North Pacific, while anticyclones are significantly less (more) numerous over this region. The action of transient cyclones and anticyclones over the central and eastern North Pacific determines seasonal climate over the West Coast of North America, and specifically, <span class="hlt">winter</span> weather over California. Relationships between <span class="hlt">winter</span> cyclone/anticyclone behavior and daily precipitation/cold temperature <span class="hlt">extremes</span> over Western North America (the West) were examined and yielded two simple indices summarizing North Pacific transient activity relevant to regional climates. These indices are strongly related to the observed inter-annual variability of daily precipitation and cold temperature <span class="hlt">extremes</span> over the West as well as to large scale seasonally averaged near surface climate conditions (e.g., air temperature at 2 m and wind at 10 m). In fact, they represent the synoptic links that accomplish the teleconnections. Comparison of patterns derived from NCEP-NCAR and CNRM-CM3 revealed that the model reproduces links between cyclone</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AdAtS..32.1444W','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AdAtS..32.1444W"><span>Air pollution or global <span class="hlt">warming</span>: Attribution of <span class="hlt">extreme</span> precipitation changes in eastern China—Comments on "Trends of <span class="hlt">extreme</span> precipitation in Eastern China and their possible causes"</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Wang, Yuan</p> <p>2015-10-01</p> <p>The recent study "Trends of <span class="hlt">Extreme</span> Precipitation in Eastern China and Their Possible Causes" attributed the observed decrease/increase of light/heavy precipitation in eastern China to global <span class="hlt">warming</span> rather than the regional aerosol effects. However, there exist compelling evidence from previous long-term observations and numerical modeling studies, suggesting that anthropogenic pollution is closely linked to the recent changes in precipitation intensity because of considerably modulated cloud physical properties by aerosols in eastern China. Clearly, a quantitative assessment of the aerosol and greenhouse effects on the regional scale is required to identify the primary cause for the <span class="hlt">extreme</span> precipitation changes.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/14510210','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/14510210"><span>A computer simulation of the oxygen balance in a cold climate <span class="hlt">winter</span> storage WSP during the critical spring <span class="hlt">warm</span>-up period.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Banks, C J; Koloskov, G B; Lock, A C; Heaven, S</p> <p>2003-01-01</p> <p>The paper considers factors that determine the oxygen balance in <span class="hlt">extreme</span> climate waste stabilisation ponds during the critical spring <span class="hlt">warm</span>-up period. At this time BOD load on the pond is a maximum, due to accumulation of wastewater under the ice during the <span class="hlt">winter</span>. The paper describes the operation of a typical cold climate WSP and the events leading to a balanced steady state system as spring develops into summer. A mathematical model to simulate conditions within a batch fed experimental pond over the transient period is described. To model temperature changes in the water body experimental data were fitted to a generalised equation based on diurnal fluctuations in air temperature. The results are plotted in a normalised form and show the diurnal fluctuation and time lapse as the depth of the pond increases. Maximum daily water temperature lags behind maximum light intensity. Bacterial growth is simulated by a Monod kinetic model in which growth rate depends on initial substrate concentration; temperature compensation is applied using a temperature activity coefficient. Oxygen utilisation is calculated from substrate removal. Algal growth rate is more complicated as it is affected by temperature and light availability. Algal oxygen production potential is considered in terms of its primary metabolite yield, which is then used in a Monod equation to estimate the growth rate. The model uses a mass balance approach to determine dissolved oxygen concentration in the pond. The model is still in a simple form but shows reasonable agreement, in terms of events and time lapses, to measured parameters in experimental ponds recovering from ice cover.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017ClDy...48.1401W','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017ClDy...48.1401W"><span>The impact of ENSO and the NAO on <span class="hlt">extreme</span> <span class="hlt">winter</span> precipitation in North America in observations and regional climate models</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Whan, Kirien; Zwiers, Francis</p> <p>2017-03-01</p> <p>The relationship between <span class="hlt">winter</span> precipitation in North America and indices of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is evaluated using non-stationary generalized <span class="hlt">extreme</span> value distributions with the indices as covariates. Both covariates have a statistically significant influence on precipitation that is well simulated by two regional climate models (RCMs), CanRCM4 and CRCM5. The observed influence of the NAO on <span class="hlt">extreme</span> precipitation is largest in eastern North America, with the likelihood of a negative phase <span class="hlt">extreme</span> rainfall event decreased in the north and increased in the south under the positive phase of the NAO. This pattern is generally well simulated by the RCMs although there are some differences in the extent of influence, particularly south of the Great Lakes. A La Niña-magnitude <span class="hlt">extreme</span> event is more likely to occur under El Niño conditions in California and the southern United States, and less likely in most of Canada and a region south of the Great Lakes. This broad pattern is also simulated well by the RCMs but they do not capture the increased likelihood in California. In some places the <span class="hlt">extreme</span> precipitation response in the RCMs to external forcing from a covariate is of the opposite sign, despite use of the same lateral boundary conditions and dynamical core. This demonstrates the importance of model physics for teleconnections to <span class="hlt">extreme</span> precipitation.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24903191','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24903191"><span>Bacterial responses to fluctuations and <span class="hlt">extremes</span> in temperature and brine salinity at the surface of Arctic <span class="hlt">winter</span> sea ice.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Ewert, Marcela; Deming, Jody W</p> <p>2014-08-01</p> <p>Wintertime measurements near Barrow, Alaska, showed that bacteria near the surface of first-year sea ice and in overlying saline snow experience more <span class="hlt">extreme</span> temperatures and salinities, and wider fluctuations in both parameters, than bacteria deeper in the ice. To examine impacts of such conditions on bacterial survival, two Arctic isolates with different environmental tolerances were subjected to <span class="hlt">winter</span>-freezing conditions, with and without the presence of organic solutes involved in osmoprotection: proline, choline, or glycine betaine. Obligate psychrophile Colwellia psychrerythraea strain 34H suffered cell losses under all treatments, with maximal loss after 15-day exposure to temperatures fluctuating between -7 and -25 °C. Osmoprotectants significantly reduced the losses, implying that salinity rather than temperature <span class="hlt">extremes</span> presents the greater stress for this organism. In contrast, psychrotolerant Psychrobacter sp. strain 7E underwent miniaturization and fragmentation under both fluctuating and stable-freezing conditions, with cell numbers increasing in most cases, implying a different survival strategy that may include enhanced dispersal. Thus, the composition and abundance of the bacterial community that survives in <span class="hlt">winter</span> sea ice may depend on the extent to which overlying snow buffers against <span class="hlt">extreme</span> temperature and salinity conditions and on the availability of solutes that mitigate osmotic shock, especially during melting.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFM.A34D..03T','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFM.A34D..03T"><span>Pseudo-global <span class="hlt">warming</span> controls on the intensity and morphology of <span class="hlt">extreme</span> convective storm events</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Trapp, R. J.</p> <p>2015-12-01</p> <p>This research seeks to answer the basic question of how current-day <span class="hlt">extreme</span> convective storm events might be represented under future anthropogenic climate change. We adapt the "pseudo-global <span class="hlt">warming</span>" (PGW) methodology employed by Lackmann (2013, 2015) and others, who have investigated flooding and tropical cyclone events under climate change. Here, we exploit coupled atmosphere-ocean GCM data contributed to the CMIP5 archive, and take the mean 3D atmospheric state simulated during May 1990-1999 and subtract it from that simulated during May 2090-2099. Such 3D changes in temperature, humidity, geopotential height, and winds are added to synoptic/meso-scale analyses (NAM-ANL) of specific events, and this modified atmospheric state is then used for initial and boundary conditions for real-data WRF model simulations of the events at high resolution. Comparison of an ensemble of these simulations with control (CTRL) simulations facilitates assessment of PGW effects. In contrast to the robust development of supercellular convection in our CTRL simulations, the combined effects of increased CIN and decreased forcing under PGW led to a failure of convection initiation in many of our ensemble members. Those members that had sufficient matching between the CIN and forcing tended to generate stronger convective updrafts than in the CTRL simulations, because of the relatively higher CAPE under PGW. And, the members with enhanced updrafts also tended to have enhanced vertical rotation. In fact, such mesocyclonic rotation and attendant supercellular morphology were even found in simulations that were driven with PGW-reduced environmental wind shear.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013JGRC..118.6838B','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013JGRC..118.6838B"><span>Near cessation of Eighteen Degree Water renewal in the western North Atlantic in the <span class="hlt">warm</span> <span class="hlt">winter</span> of 2011-2012</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Billheimer, Sam; Talley, Lynne D.</p> <p>2013-12-01</p> <p>The <span class="hlt">winter</span> of 2011-2012 was a particularly weak season for the renewal of "Eighteen Degree Water" (EDW), the Subtropical Mode Water of the western North Atlantic, as demonstrated by Argo and repeat hydrography. Weak, late <span class="hlt">winter</span> buoyancy forcing produced shallower than usual <span class="hlt">winter</span> mixed layers throughout the subtropical gyre, failing to thoroughly ventilate the underlying mode water, and can likely be attributed to the coinciding high, positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The only region where EDW was renewed was in the far northeastern Sargasso Sea where it is understood that the Gulf Stream plays a central role in formation; no EDW formed over the large regions of the gyre where deep <span class="hlt">winter</span> mixed layers driven by surface buoyancy loss normally create EDW. The present investigation evaluates 2011-2012 <span class="hlt">winter</span> buoyancy content anomalies, surface buoyancy fluxes, and advection of buoyancy via the Gulf Stream and compares them with the previous seven <span class="hlt">winters</span> that exhibited more vigorous EDW formation. The weak 2011-2012 formation did not result from increased Gulf Stream heat advection, and was also not driven by preconditioning as the buoyancy content of the region prior to the onset of <span class="hlt">winter</span> forcing was not unusually high. Rather, the weak formation resulted from climatologically weak surface cooling late in <span class="hlt">winter</span>. The <span class="hlt">winter</span> of 2007-2008 also experienced particularly weak EDW formation under similar conditions, including a high NAO and weak late <span class="hlt">winter</span> surface cooling.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFMGC44A..07K','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFMGC44A..07K"><span>Global and Regional Variations in Mean Temperature and <span class="hlt">Warm</span> <span class="hlt">Extremes</span> in Large-Member Historical AGCM Simulation</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Kamae, Y.; Shiogama, H.; Imada, Y.; Mori, M.; Arakawa, O.; Mizuta, R.; Yoshida, K.; Ishii, M.; Watanabe, M.; Kimoto, M.; Ueda, H.</p> <p>2015-12-01</p> <p>Frequency of heat <span class="hlt">extremes</span> during the summer season has increased continuously since the late 20th century despite the global <span class="hlt">warming</span> hiatus. In previous studies, anthropogenic influences, natural variation in sea surface temperature (SST), and internal atmospheric variabilities are suggested to be factors contributing to the increase in the frequency of <span class="hlt">warm</span> <span class="hlt">extremes</span>. Here 100-member ensemble historical simulations were performed (called "database for Probabilistic Description of Future climate"; d4PDF) to examine physical mechanisms responsible for the increasing hot summers and attribute to the anthropogenic influences or natural climate variability. 60km resolution MRI-AGCM ensemble simulations can reproduce historical variations in the mean temperature and <span class="hlt">warm</span> <span class="hlt">extremes</span>. Natural SST variability in the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans contribute to the decadal variation in the frequency of hot summers in the Northern Hemisphere middle latitude. For example, the surface temperature over western North America, including California, is largely influenced by anomalous atmospheric circulation pattern associated with Pacific SST variability. Future projections based on anomalous SST patterns derived from coupled climate model simulations will also be introduced.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27591579','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27591579"><span>Sensitivity of soil carbon fractions and their specific stabilization mechanisms to <span class="hlt">extreme</span> soil <span class="hlt">warming</span> in a subarctic grassland.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Poeplau, Christopher; Kätterer, Thomas; Leblans, Niki I W; Sigurdsson, Bjarni D</p> <p>2017-03-01</p> <p>Terrestrial carbon cycle feedbacks to global <span class="hlt">warming</span> are major uncertainties in climate models. For in-depth understanding of changes in soil organic carbon (SOC) after soil <span class="hlt">warming</span>, long-term responses of SOC stabilization mechanisms such as aggregation, organo-mineral interactions and chemical recalcitrance need to be addressed. This study investigated the effect of 6 years of geothermal soil <span class="hlt">warming</span> on different SOC fractions in an unmanaged grassland in Iceland. Along an <span class="hlt">extreme</span> <span class="hlt">warming</span> gradient of +0 to ~+40 °C, we isolated five fractions of SOC that varied conceptually in turnover rate from active to passive in the following order: particulate organic matter (POM), dissolved organic carbon (DOC), SOC in sand and stable aggregates (SA), SOC in silt and clay (SC-rSOC) and resistant SOC (rSOC). Soil <span class="hlt">warming</span> of 0.6 °C increased bulk SOC by 22 ± 43% (0-10 cm soil layer) and 27 ± 54% (20-30 cm), while further <span class="hlt">warming</span> led to exponential SOC depletion of up to 79 ± 14% (0-10 cm) and 74 ± 8% (20-30) in the most <span class="hlt">warmed</span> plots (~+40 °C). Only the SA fraction was more sensitive than the bulk soil, with 93 ± 6% (0-10 cm) and 86 ± 13% (20-30 cm) SOC losses and the highest relative enrichment in (13) C as an indicator for the degree of decomposition (+1.6 ± 1.5‰ in 0-10 cm and +1.3 ± 0.8‰ in 20-30 cm). The SA fraction mass also declined along the <span class="hlt">warming</span> gradient, while the SC fraction mass increased. This was explained by deactivation of aggregate-binding mechanisms. There was no difference between the responses of SC-rSOC (slow-cycling) and rSOC (passive) to <span class="hlt">warming</span>, and (13) C enrichment in rSOC was equal to that in bulk soil. We concluded that the sensitivity of SOC to <span class="hlt">warming</span> was not a function of age or chemical recalcitrance, but triggered by changes in biophysical stabilization mechanisms, such as aggregation.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016EGUGA..18.6780B','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016EGUGA..18.6780B"><span><span class="hlt">Extreme</span> <span class="hlt">Winter</span> Cyclones in the North Atlantic in a Last Millennium Climate Simulation with CESM1.0.1</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Blumer, Sandro R.; Raible, Christoph C.; Lehner, Flavio; Stocker, Thomas F.</p> <p>2016-04-01</p> <p><span class="hlt">Extreme</span> cyclones and their associated impacts are a major threat to mankind, as they often result in heavy precipitation events and severe winds. The last millennium is closest to the Anthropocene and has the best coverage of paleo-climatic information. Therefore, it can serve as a test bed for estimating natural forcing variations beyond the recent observational period and can deliver insight into the frequency and intensity of <span class="hlt">extreme</span> events, including strong cyclones and their dependency on internal variability and external forcing. The aim of this study is to investigate how the frequency and intensity of <span class="hlt">extreme</span> cyclones in the North Atlantic have changed in the last millennium, and investigate phases which deviate more than one standard deviation. In particular the changes during prolonged cold and <span class="hlt">warm</span> periods and the 21st century are analysed to assess the external forcing imprint. We use a comprehensive fully-coupled transient climate simulation of the last millennium (AD 1000-2100) with a relatively high spatial (0.9x1.25 degrees) resolution. Cyclones are then detected and tracked in 12-hourly output using an algorithm that is based on the geopotential height field on 1000 hPa. In addition to the tracking, a Gaussian function is fitted to the depressions in the geopotential height field at every time step in order to have a geometric representation of the low pressure systems. Additionally, two intensity indices for <span class="hlt">extreme</span> cyclones are defined: the 90 percentile of the mean gradient in geopotential and the 90 percentile of the precipitation within a radius of one standard deviation of the approximated Gaussian function around the cyclone. These criteria consider two aspects of cyclone's intensity: <span class="hlt">extremes</span> in wind and precipitation. A 30-yr running window is applied to the entire simulation. Within each window the cyclone frequency and the indices for <span class="hlt">extreme</span> wind and <span class="hlt">extreme</span> precipitation cyclones are averaged. This analysis reveals decadal to</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010ThApC.100..163B','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010ThApC.100..163B"><span>European floods during the <span class="hlt">winter</span> 1783/1784: scenarios of an <span class="hlt">extreme</span> event during the `Little Ice Age'</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Brázdil, Rudolf; Demarée, Gaston R.; Deutsch, Mathias; Garnier, Emmanuel; Kiss, Andrea; Luterbacher, Jürg; MacDonald, Neil; Rohr, Christian; Dobrovolný, Petr; Kolář, Petr; Chromá, Kateřina</p> <p>2010-03-01</p> <p>The Lakagígar eruption in Iceland during 1783 was followed by the severe <span class="hlt">winter</span> of 1783/1784, which was characterised by low temperatures, frozen soils, ice-bound watercourses and high rates of snow accumulation across much of Europe. Sudden <span class="hlt">warming</span> coupled with rainfall led to rapid snowmelt, resulting in a series of flooding phases across much of Europe. The first phase of flooding occurred in late December 1783-early January 1784 in England, France, the Low Countries and historical Hungary. The second phase at the turn of February-March 1784 was of greater extent, generated by the melting of an unusually large accumulation of snow and river ice, affecting catchments across France and Central Europe (where it is still considered as one of the most disastrous known floods), throughout the Danube catchment and in southeast Central Europe. The third and final phase of flooding occurred mainly in historical Hungary during late March and early April 1784. The different impacts and consequences of the above floods on both local and regional scales were reflected in the economic and societal responses, material damage and human losses. The <span class="hlt">winter</span> of 1783/1784 can be considered as typical, if severe, for the Little Ice Age period across much of Europe.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=20160002960&hterms=global+warming+causes&qs=N%3D0%26Ntk%3DAll%26Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntt%3Dglobal%2Bwarming%2Bcauses','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=20160002960&hterms=global+warming+causes&qs=N%3D0%26Ntk%3DAll%26Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntt%3Dglobal%2Bwarming%2Bcauses"><span>Detecting Climate Signals in Precipitation <span class="hlt">Extremes</span> from TRMM (1998-2013) - Increasing Contrast Between Wet and Dry <span class="hlt">Extremes</span> During the "Global <span class="hlt">Warming</span> Hiatus"</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Wu, Huey-Tzu Jenny; Lau, William K.-M.</p> <p>2016-01-01</p> <p>We investigate changes in daily precipitation <span class="hlt">extremes</span> using Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) data (1998-2013), which coincides with the "global <span class="hlt">warming</span> hiatus." Results show a change in probability distribution functions of local precipitation events (LPEs) during this period consistent with previous global <span class="hlt">warming</span> studies, indicating increasing contrast between wet and dry <span class="hlt">extremes</span>, with more intense LPE, less moderate LPE, and more dry (no rain) days globally. Analyses for land and ocean separately reveal more complex and nuanced changes over land, characterized by a strong positive trend (+12.0% per decade, 99% confidence level (c.l.)) in frequency of <span class="hlt">extreme</span> LPEs over the Northern Hemisphere extratropics during the wet season but a negative global trend (-6.6% per decade, 95% c.l.) during the dry season. A significant global drying trend (3.2% per decade, 99% c.l.) over land is also found during the dry season. Regions of pronounced increased dry events include western and central U.S., northeastern Asia, and Southern Europe/Mediterranean.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=20160002960&hterms=global+warming&qs=N%3D0%26Ntk%3DAll%26Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntt%3Dglobal%2Bwarming','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=20160002960&hterms=global+warming&qs=N%3D0%26Ntk%3DAll%26Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntt%3Dglobal%2Bwarming"><span>Detecting Climate Signals in Precipitation <span class="hlt">Extremes</span> from TRMM (1998-2013) - Increasing Contrast Between Wet and Dry <span class="hlt">Extremes</span> During the "Global <span class="hlt">Warming</span> Hiatus"</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Wu, Huey-Tzu Jenny; Lau, William K.-M.</p> <p>2016-01-01</p> <p>We investigate changes in daily precipitation <span class="hlt">extremes</span> using Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) data (1998-2013), which coincides with the "global <span class="hlt">warming</span> hiatus." Results show a change in probability distribution functions of local precipitation events (LPEs) during this period consistent with previous global <span class="hlt">warming</span> studies, indicating increasing contrast between wet and dry <span class="hlt">extremes</span>, with more intense LPE, less moderate LPE, and more dry (no rain) days globally. Analyses for land and ocean separately reveal more complex and nuanced changes over land, characterized by a strong positive trend (+12.0% per decade, 99% confidence level (c.l.)) in frequency of <span class="hlt">extreme</span> LPEs over the Northern Hemisphere extratropics during the wet season but a negative global trend (-6.6% per decade, 95% c.l.) during the dry season. A significant global drying trend (3.2% per decade, 99% c.l.) over land is also found during the dry season. Regions of pronounced increased dry events include western and central U.S., northeastern Asia, and Southern Europe/Mediterranean.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016GeoRL..43.1340W','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016GeoRL..43.1340W"><span>Detecting climate signals in precipitation <span class="hlt">extremes</span> from TRMM (1998-2013)—Increasing contrast between wet and dry <span class="hlt">extremes</span> during the "global <span class="hlt">warming</span> hiatus"</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Wu, Huey-Tzu Jenny; Lau, William K.-M.</p> <p>2016-02-01</p> <p>We investigate changes in daily precipitation <span class="hlt">extremes</span> using Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) data (1998-2013), which coincides with the "global <span class="hlt">warming</span> hiatus." Results show a change in probability distribution functions of local precipitation events (LPEs) during this period consistent with previous global <span class="hlt">warming</span> studies, indicating increasing contrast between wet and dry <span class="hlt">extremes</span>, with more intense LPE, less moderate LPE, and more dry (no rain) days globally. Analyses for land and ocean separately reveal more complex and nuanced changes over land, characterized by a strong positive trend (+12.0% per decade, 99% confidence level (c.l.)) in frequency of <span class="hlt">extreme</span> LPEs over the Northern Hemisphere extratropics during the wet season but a negative global trend (-6.6% per decade, 95% c.l.) during the dry season. A significant global drying trend (3.2% per decade, 99% c.l.) over land is also found during the dry season. Regions of pronounced increased dry events include western and central U.S., northeastern Asia, and Southern Europe/Mediterranean.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23086507','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23086507"><span>Nocturnal loss of body reserves reveals high survival risk for subordinate great tits <span class="hlt">wintering</span> at <span class="hlt">extremely</span> low ambient temperatures.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Krams, Indrikis; Cīrule, Dina; Vrublevska, Jolanta; Nord, Andreas; Rantala, Markus J; Krama, Tatjana</p> <p>2013-06-01</p> <p><span class="hlt">Winter</span> acclimatization in birds is a complex of several strategies based on metabolic adjustment accompanied by long-term management of resources such as fattening. However, <span class="hlt">wintering</span> birds often maintain fat reserves below their physiological capacity, suggesting a cost involved with excessive levels of reserves. We studied body reserves of roosting great tits in relation to their dominance status under two contrasting temperature regimes to see whether individuals are capable of optimizing their survival strategies under <span class="hlt">extreme</span> environmental conditions. We predicted less pronounced loss of body mass and body condition and lower rates of overnight mortality in dominant great tits at both mild and <span class="hlt">extremely</span> low ambient temperatures, when ambient temperature dropped down to -43 °C. The results showed that dominant great tits consistently maintained lower reserve levels than subordinates regardless of ambient temperature. However, dominants responded to the rising risk of starvation under low temperatures by increasing their body reserves, whereas subdominant birds decreased reserve levels in harsh conditions. Yet, their losses of body mass and body reserves were always lower than in subordinate birds. None of the dominant great tits were found dead, while five young females and one adult female were found dead in nest boxes during cold spells when ambient temperatures dropped down to -43 °C. The dead great tits lost up to 23.83 % of their evening body mass during cold nights while surviving individuals lost on average 12.78 % of their evening body mass. Our results show that fattening strategies of great tits reflect an adaptive role of <span class="hlt">winter</span> fattening which is sensitive to changes in ambient temperatures and differs among individuals of different social ranks.</p> </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_12");'>12</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_13");'>13</a></li> <li class="active"><span>14</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_15");'>15</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_16");'>16</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div><!-- col-sm-12 --> </div><!-- row --> </div><!-- page_14 --> <div id="page_15" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_13");'>13</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_14");'>14</a></li> <li class="active"><span>15</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_16");'>16</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_17");'>17</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="281"> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28214115','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28214115"><span><span class="hlt">Warm</span> summers and moderate <span class="hlt">winter</span> precipitation boost Rhododendron ferrugineum L. growth in the Taillefer massif (French Alps).</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Francon, L; Corona, C; Roussel, E; Lopez Saez, J; Stoffel, M</p> <p>2017-05-15</p> <p>Rhododendron ferrugineum L. is a widespread dwarf shrub species growing in high-elevation, alpine environments of the Western European Alps. For this reason, analysis of its growth rings offers unique opportunities to push current dendrochronological networks into <span class="hlt">extreme</span> environments and way beyond the treeline. Given that different species of the same genus have been successfully used in tree-ring investigations, notably in the Himalayas where Rhododendron spp. has proven to be a reliable climate proxy, this study aims at (i) evaluating the dendroclimatological potential of R. ferrugineum and at (ii) determining the major limiting climate factor driving its growth. To this end, 154 cross-sections from 36 R. ferrugineum individuals have been sampled above local treelines and at elevations from 1800 to 2100masl on northwest-facing slopes of the Taillefer massif (French Alps). We illustrate a 195-year-long standard chronology based on growth-ring records from 24 R. ferrugineum individuals, and document that the series is well-replicated for almost one century (1920-2015) with an Expressed Population Signal (EPS) >0.85. Analyses using partial and moving 3-months correlation functions further highlight that growth of R. ferrugineum is governed by temperatures during the growing season (May-July), with increasingly higher air temperatures favoring wider rings, a phenomenon which is well known from dwarf shrubs growing in circum-arctic tundra ecosystems. Similarly, the negative effect of January-February precipitation on radial growth of R. ferrugineum, already observed in the Alps on juniper shrubs, is interpreted as a result of shortened growing seasons following snowy <span class="hlt">winters</span>. We conclude that the strong and unequivocal signals recorded in the fairly long R. ferrugineum chronologies can indeed be used for climate-growth studies as well as for the reconstruction of climatic fluctuations in Alpine regions beyond the upper limits of present-day forests.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013EnMan..51..154F','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013EnMan..51..154F"><span>Improving Conservation of Florida Manatees ( Trichechus manatus latirostris): Conceptualization and Contributions Toward a Regional <span class="hlt">Warm</span>-Water Network Management Strategy for Sustainable <span class="hlt">Winter</span> Habitat</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Flamm, Richard Owen; Reynolds, John Elliot; Harmak, Craig</p> <p>2013-01-01</p> <p>We used southwestern Florida as a case study to lay the groundwork for an intended and organized decision-making process for managing <span class="hlt">warm</span>-water habitat needed by endangered manatees to survive <span class="hlt">winters</span> in Florida. Scientists and managers have prioritized (a) projecting how the network of <span class="hlt">warm</span>-water sites will change over the next 50 years as <span class="hlt">warmed</span> industrial discharges may expire and as flows of natural springs are reduced through redirection of water for human uses, and (b) mitigating such changes to prevent undue consequences to manatees. Given the complexities introduced by manatee ecology; agency organizational structure; shifting public demands; fluctuating resource availability; and managing within interacting cultural, social, political, and environmental contexts, it was clear that a structured decision process was needed. To help promote such a process, we collected information relevant to future decisions including maps of known and suspected <span class="hlt">warm</span>-water sites and prototyped a characterization of sites and networks. We propose steps that would lead to models that might serve as core tools in manatee/<span class="hlt">warm</span>-water decision-making, and we summarized topics relevant for informed decision-making (e.g., manatee spatial cognition, risk of cold-stress morbidity and mortality, and human dimensions). A major impetus behind this effort is to ensure proactively that robust modeling tools are available well in advance of the anticipated need for a critical management decision.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23161252','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23161252"><span>Improving conservation of Florida manatees (Trichechus manatus latirostris): conceptualization and contributions toward a regional <span class="hlt">warm</span>-water network management strategy for sustainable <span class="hlt">winter</span> habitat.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Flamm, Richard Owen; Reynolds, John Elliot; Harmak, Craig</p> <p>2013-01-01</p> <p>We used southwestern Florida as a case study to lay the groundwork for an intended and organized decision-making process for managing <span class="hlt">warm</span>-water habitat needed by endangered manatees to survive <span class="hlt">winters</span> in Florida. Scientists and managers have prioritized (a) projecting how the network of <span class="hlt">warm</span>-water sites will change over the next 50 years as <span class="hlt">warmed</span> industrial discharges may expire and as flows of natural springs are reduced through redirection of water for human uses, and (b) mitigating such changes to prevent undue consequences to manatees. Given the complexities introduced by manatee ecology; agency organizational structure; shifting public demands; fluctuating resource availability; and managing within interacting cultural, social, political, and environmental contexts, it was clear that a structured decision process was needed. To help promote such a process, we collected information relevant to future decisions including maps of known and suspected <span class="hlt">warm</span>-water sites and prototyped a characterization of sites and networks. We propose steps that would lead to models that might serve as core tools in manatee/<span class="hlt">warm</span>-water decision-making, and we summarized topics relevant for informed decision-making (e.g., manatee spatial cognition, risk of cold-stress morbidity and mortality, and human dimensions). A major impetus behind this effort is to ensure proactively that robust modeling tools are available well in advance of the anticipated need for a critical management decision.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20231906','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20231906"><span>Comparing approaches for studying the effects of climate <span class="hlt">extremes</span> - a case study of hospital admissions in Sweden during an <span class="hlt">extremely</span> <span class="hlt">warm</span> summer.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Rocklöv, Joacim; Forsberg, Bertil</p> <p>2009-11-11</p> <p>Health effects induced by climate, weather and climatic change may act directly or indirectly on human physiology. The future total burden of global <span class="hlt">warming</span> is uncertain, but in some areas and for specific outcomes, mortality and morbidity are likely to increase. One likely effect of global <span class="hlt">warming</span> is an increasing number of <span class="hlt">extreme</span> weather events, such as floods, storms and heat waves. The excess numbers of specific health outcomes attributable to climate-induced events can be estimated. This paper compares approaches for estimating excess numbers of outcomes associated with climate <span class="hlt">extremes</span>, exemplified by a case study of hospital admissions during the <span class="hlt">extremely</span> <span class="hlt">warm</span> summer of 2006 in southern Sweden. Daily hospital admission data were obtained from the Swedish National Board of Health and Welfare for six hospitals in the Skåne region of southern Sweden for the period 1998 to 2006. Daily temperature data for the region were obtained from the meteorological station in the city of Malmö. We used four established approaches for estimating the daily excess numbers associated with <span class="hlt">extreme</span> heat. Time series of daily event rates were assumed to follow a Poisson distribution. Excess event rates were compared by using several approaches, such as standardised event ratios and generalised additive models to estimate the health risks attributable to the <span class="hlt">extreme</span> climate event. The four approaches yielded vastly different results. The estimates of excess were considerably biased when not accounting for time trends in previous years' data. Three of four approaches showed a significant increase in excess hospitalisation rates attributable to the heat episode in Skåne in 2006. However, modelling the effect of temperature failed to describe the risks induced by the <span class="hlt">extreme</span> heat. Estimates of excess events depend greatly on the approach used. Further research is needed to identify which method yielded the most accurate estimates. However, one of the approaches used generally</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=2712400','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=2712400"><span>Is Shade Beneficial for Mediterranean Shrubs Experiencing Periods of <span class="hlt">Extreme</span> Drought and Late-<span class="hlt">winter</span> Frosts?</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Valladares, Fernando; Zaragoza-Castells, Joana; Sánchez-Gómez, David; Matesanz, Silvia; Alonso, Beatriz; Portsmuth, Angelika; Delgado, Antonio; Atkin, Owen K.</p> <p>2008-01-01</p> <p>Background and Aims Plants are naturally exposed to multiple, frequently interactive stress factors, most of which are becoming more severe due to global change. Established plants have been reported to facilitate the establishment of juvenile plants, but net effects of plant–plant interactions are difficult to assess due to complex interactions among environmental factors. An investigation was carried out in order to determine how two dominant evergreen shrubs (Quercus ilex and Arctostaphylos uva-ursi) co-occurring in continental, Mediterranean habitats respond to multiple abiotic stresses and whether the shaded understorey conditions ameliorate the negative effects of drought and <span class="hlt">winter</span> frosts on the physiology of leaves. Methods Microclimate and ecophysiology of sun and shade plants were studied at a continental plateau in central Spain during 2004–2005, with 2005 being one of the driest and hottest years on record; several late-<span class="hlt">winter</span> frosts also occurred in 2005. Key Results Daytime air temperature and vapour pressure deficit were lower in the shade than in the sun, but soil moisture was also lower in the shade during the spring and summer of 2005, and night-time temperatures were higher in the shade. Water potential, photochemical efficiency, light-saturated photosynthesis, stomatal conductance and leaf 13C composition differed between sun and shade individuals throughout the seasons, but differences were species specific. Shade was beneficial for leaf-level physiology in Q. ilex during <span class="hlt">winter</span>, detrimental during spring for both species, and of little consequence in summer. Conclusions The results suggest that beneficial effects of shade can be eclipsed by reduced soil moisture during dry years, which are expected to be more frequent in the most likely climate change scenarios for the Mediterranean region. PMID:18819947</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016JGRC..121.6331I','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016JGRC..121.6331I"><span>Circulation and haline structure of a microtidal bay in the Sea of Japan influenced by the <span class="hlt">winter</span> monsoon and the Tsushima <span class="hlt">Warm</span> Current</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Itoh, Sachihiko; Kasai, Akihide; Takeshige, Aigo; Zenimoto, Kei; Kimura, Shingo; Suzuki, Keita W.; Miyake, Yoichi; Funahashi, Tatsuhiro; Yamashita, Yoh; Watanabe, Yoshiro</p> <p>2016-08-01</p> <p>Mooring and hydrographic surveys were conducted in Tango Bay, a microtidal region of freshwater influence (ROFI) in the Sea of Japan, in order to clarify the circulation pattern in the bay and its driving forces. Monthly mean velocity records at four stations revealed an inflow and outflow at the eastern and northern openings of the bay, respectively, indicating an anticyclonic circulation across the bay mouth. The circulation was significantly intensified in <span class="hlt">winter</span>, in accordance with the prevailing NW wind component of the <span class="hlt">winter</span> monsoon. The anticyclonic circulation at the bay mouth was connected to an estuarine circulation that was evident near the mouth of the Yura River at the bay head. Surface salinity just offshore of the river mouth was closely related to the Yura River discharge, whereas in lower layers the offshore water had a stronger influence on salinity. Prior to a seasonal increase in the Yura River discharge, summer salinity decreased markedly through the water column in Tango Bay, possibly reflecting intrusion of the Changjiang Diluted Water transported by the Tsushima <span class="hlt">Warm</span> Current. In contrast with the traditional assumption that estuarine circulation is controlled mainly by river discharge and tidal forcing, the circulation in Tango Bay is strongly influenced by seasonal wind and the Tsushima <span class="hlt">Warm</span> Current. The narrow shelf may be responsible for the strong influence of the Tsushima <span class="hlt">Warm</span> Current on circulation and water exchange processes in Tango Bay.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AdAtS..33.1005D','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AdAtS..33.1005D"><span>Abrupt summer <span class="hlt">warming</span> and changes in temperature <span class="hlt">extremes</span> over Northeast Asia since the mid-1990s: Drivers and physical processes</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Dong, Buwen; Sutton, Rowan T.; Chen, Wei; Liu, Xiaodong; Lu, Riyu; Sun, Ying</p> <p>2016-09-01</p> <p>This study investigated the drivers and physical processes for the abrupt decadal summer surface <span class="hlt">warming</span> and increases in hot temperature <span class="hlt">extremes</span> that occurred over Northeast Asia in the mid-1990s. Observations indicate an abrupt increase in summer mean surface air temperature (SAT) over Northeast Asia since the mid-1990s. Accompanying this abrupt surface <span class="hlt">warming</span>, significant changes in some temperature <span class="hlt">extremes</span>, characterized by increases in summer mean daily maximum temperature (Tmax), daily minimum temperature (Tmin), annual hottest day temperature (TXx), and annual warmest night temperature (TNx) were observed. There were also increases in the frequency of summer days (SU) and tropical nights (TR). Atmospheric general circulation model experiments forced by changes in sea surface temperature (SST)/sea ice extent (SIE), anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations, and anthropogenic aerosol (AA) forcing, relative to the period 1964-93, reproduced the general patterns of observed summer mean SAT changes and associated changes in temperature <span class="hlt">extremes</span>, although the abrupt decrease in precipitation since the mid-1990s was not simulated. Additional model experiments with different forcings indicated that changes in SST/SIE explained 76% of the area-averaged summer mean surface <span class="hlt">warming</span> signal over Northeast Asia, while the direct impact of changes in GHG and AA explained the remaining 24% of the surface <span class="hlt">warming</span> signal. Analysis of physical processes indicated that the direct impact of the changes in AA (through aerosol-radiation and aerosol-cloud interactions), mainly related to the reduction of AA precursor emissions over Europe, played a dominant role in the increase in TXx and a similarly important role as SST/SIE changes in the increase in the frequency of SU over Northeast Asia via AA-induced coupled atmosphere-land surface and cloud feedbacks, rather than through a direct impact of AA changes on cloud condensation nuclei. The modelling results also imply</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2006AGUFM.A53E0255Y','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2006AGUFM.A53E0255Y"><span>Responses to Global <span class="hlt">Warming</span> Over the Eastern and Central Tibetan Plateau as Reflected in Day-time and Night-time Temperatures, <span class="hlt">Extreme</span> Temperature Events, and Growing Season Length During 1961-2003</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Yin, Z.; Liu, X.; Shao, X.</p> <p>2006-12-01</p> <p>This study examines the trends and variation patterns in daily maximum (day-time) and minimum (night-time) temperatures (hereafter referred to as Tm and Tn), <span class="hlt">extreme</span> events, and growing season lengths over the eastern and central Tibetan Plateau (TP), in comparison with the results from other regions. Data during the period 1961-2003 from 66 weather stations over the eastern and central TP with elevations above 2000 m are used in this study, after going through rigorous quality assessment/quality control procedures. Statistically significant <span class="hlt">warming</span> trends are identified in various measures of the temperature regime, especially in night- time temperatures, <span class="hlt">extreme</span> <span class="hlt">warm</span>/cold events, and diurnal temperature range (DTR). We find that the trends in Tn and Tm display distinct spatial patterns in the study region. The <span class="hlt">warming</span> trends in <span class="hlt">winter</span> night-time temperatures are among the highest when compared with studies conducted in other regions. Our results also confirm the asymmetric pattern of greater <span class="hlt">warming</span> trends in minimum or night-time temperatures as compared to the day-time temperatures, which reduces the DTR in the region. Based on the time-varying percentiles of Tn and Tm, prominent <span class="hlt">warming</span> trends are found in Tn during cold season months across the relative temperature scale of both <span class="hlt">warm</span> and cold events. The <span class="hlt">warming</span> in night-time temperatures causes the number of frost days to decrease significantly and the number of <span class="hlt">warm</span> days to increase. The mean length of growing season has increased by approximately 17 days during the 43-year study period for the region. Most of the record-setting months for cold events are found in the earlier part of the study period, while that of the <span class="hlt">warm</span> events have occurred mostly in the later half, especially since the 1990s. The changes in the temperature regime in this region may have brought regional-specific impacts on the ecosystems. It is found that grain production in Qinghai Province, located in the northeastern part of the</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017GeoRL..44.3816H','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017GeoRL..44.3816H"><span>The <span class="hlt">extreme</span> El Niño of 2015-2016 and the end of global <span class="hlt">warming</span> hiatus</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Hu, Shineng; Fedorov, Alexey V.</p> <p>2017-04-01</p> <p>Slower rates of increase in global mean surface temperature (GMST) after 2000, dubbed "global <span class="hlt">warming</span> hiatus," recently gave way to a rapid temperature rise. This rise coincided with persistent <span class="hlt">warm</span> conditions in the equatorial Pacific between March 2014 and May 2016, which peaked as the 2015 <span class="hlt">extreme</span> El Niño. Here we show that the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) tightly controls interannual variations in atmospheric heating rate in the tropics (r > 0.9), allowing us to construct a simple, physically based model of GMST variations that incorporates greenhouse gas emissions, ENSO forcing, and stratospheric sulfate aerosols produced by volcanoes. The model closely reproduces GMST changes since 1880, including the global <span class="hlt">warming</span> hiatus and the subsequent temperature rise. Our results confirm that weak El Niño activity, rather than volcanic eruptions, was the cause of the hiatus, while the rapid temperature rise is due to atmospheric heat release during 2014-2016 El Niño conditions concurrent with the continuing global <span class="hlt">warming</span> trend.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017NatSR...746432W','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017NatSR...746432W"><span>Scenario dependence of future changes in climate <span class="hlt">extremes</span> under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global <span class="hlt">warming</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Wang, Zhili; Lin, Lei; Zhang, Xiaoye; Zhang, Hua; Liu, Liangke; Xu, Yangyang</p> <p>2017-04-01</p> <p>The 2015 Paris Agreement aims to limit global <span class="hlt">warming</span> below 2 °C and pursue efforts to even limit it to 1.5 °C relative to pre-industrial levels. Decision makers need reliable information on the impacts caused by these <span class="hlt">warming</span> levels for climate mitigation and adaptation measures. We explore the changes in climate <span class="hlt">extremes</span>, which are closely tied to economic losses and casualties, under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global <span class="hlt">warming</span> and their scenario dependence using three sets of ensemble global climate model simulations. A <span class="hlt">warming</span> of 0.5 °C (from 1.5 °C to 2 °C) leads to significant increases in temperature and precipitation <span class="hlt">extremes</span> in most regions. However, the projected changes in climate <span class="hlt">extremes</span> under both <span class="hlt">warming</span> levels highly depend on the pathways of emissions scenarios, with different greenhouse gas (GHG)/aerosol forcing ratio and GHG levels. Moreover, there are multifold differences in several heavily polluted regions, among the scenarios, in the changes in precipitation <span class="hlt">extremes</span> due to an additional 0.5 °C <span class="hlt">warming</span> from 1.5 °C to 2 °C. Our results demonstrate that the chemical compositions of emissions scenarios, not just the total radiative forcing and resultant <span class="hlt">warming</span> level, must be considered when assessing the impacts of global 1.5/2 °C <span class="hlt">warming</span>.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=5397837','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=5397837"><span>Scenario dependence of future changes in climate <span class="hlt">extremes</span> under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global <span class="hlt">warming</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Wang, Zhili; Lin, Lei; Zhang, Xiaoye; Zhang, Hua; Liu, Liangke; Xu, Yangyang</p> <p>2017-01-01</p> <p>The 2015 Paris Agreement aims to limit global <span class="hlt">warming</span> below 2 °C and pursue efforts to even limit it to 1.5 °C relative to pre-industrial levels. Decision makers need reliable information on the impacts caused by these <span class="hlt">warming</span> levels for climate mitigation and adaptation measures. We explore the changes in climate <span class="hlt">extremes</span>, which are closely tied to economic losses and casualties, under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global <span class="hlt">warming</span> and their scenario dependence using three sets of ensemble global climate model simulations. A <span class="hlt">warming</span> of 0.5 °C (from 1.5 °C to 2 °C) leads to significant increases in temperature and precipitation <span class="hlt">extremes</span> in most regions. However, the projected changes in climate <span class="hlt">extremes</span> under both <span class="hlt">warming</span> levels highly depend on the pathways of emissions scenarios, with different greenhouse gas (GHG)/aerosol forcing ratio and GHG levels. Moreover, there are multifold differences in several heavily polluted regions, among the scenarios, in the changes in precipitation <span class="hlt">extremes</span> due to an additional 0.5 °C <span class="hlt">warming</span> from 1.5 °C to 2 °C. Our results demonstrate that the chemical compositions of emissions scenarios, not just the total radiative forcing and resultant <span class="hlt">warming</span> level, must be considered when assessing the impacts of global 1.5/2 °C <span class="hlt">warming</span>. PMID:28425445</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28425445','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28425445"><span>Scenario dependence of future changes in climate <span class="hlt">extremes</span> under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global <span class="hlt">warming</span>.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Wang, Zhili; Lin, Lei; Zhang, Xiaoye; Zhang, Hua; Liu, Liangke; Xu, Yangyang</p> <p>2017-04-20</p> <p>The 2015 Paris Agreement aims to limit global <span class="hlt">warming</span> below 2 °C and pursue efforts to even limit it to 1.5 °C relative to pre-industrial levels. Decision makers need reliable information on the impacts caused by these <span class="hlt">warming</span> levels for climate mitigation and adaptation measures. We explore the changes in climate <span class="hlt">extremes</span>, which are closely tied to economic losses and casualties, under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global <span class="hlt">warming</span> and their scenario dependence using three sets of ensemble global climate model simulations. A <span class="hlt">warming</span> of 0.5 °C (from 1.5 °C to 2 °C) leads to significant increases in temperature and precipitation <span class="hlt">extremes</span> in most regions. However, the projected changes in climate <span class="hlt">extremes</span> under both <span class="hlt">warming</span> levels highly depend on the pathways of emissions scenarios, with different greenhouse gas (GHG)/aerosol forcing ratio and GHG levels. Moreover, there are multifold differences in several heavily polluted regions, among the scenarios, in the changes in precipitation <span class="hlt">extremes</span> due to an additional 0.5 °C <span class="hlt">warming</span> from 1.5 °C to 2 °C. Our results demonstrate that the chemical compositions of emissions scenarios, not just the total radiative forcing and resultant <span class="hlt">warming</span> level, must be considered when assessing the impacts of global 1.5/2 °C <span class="hlt">warming</span>.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/pages/biblio/1362001-north-american-winter-dipole-extremes-activity-cmip5-assessment','SCIGOV-DOEP'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/pages/biblio/1362001-north-american-winter-dipole-extremes-activity-cmip5-assessment"><span>The North American <span class="hlt">winter</span> 'dipole' and <span class="hlt">extremes</span> activity: A CMIP5 assessment</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.osti.gov/pages">DOE PAGES</a></p> <p>Wang, Shih-Yu Simon; Huang, Wan -Ru; Yoon, Jin -Ho</p> <p>2015-02-13</p> <p>The 2013-2014 <span class="hlt">winter</span> in North American brought intense drought in the West and severe cold in the East. The circulation anomalies were characterized as a dipole: an amplified upper-level ridge over the West Coast and a deepened trough over the central-eastern United States. A previous study using a single model has linked the dipole to the El Nino precursor and found that this link has strengthened in recent years. Here, 17 models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 are used to examine the dipole activity. As a result, most models capture the dipole and its association with Elmore » Nino precursor and project this association to strengthen.« less</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.osti.gov/scitech/servlets/purl/1362001','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech/servlets/purl/1362001"><span>The North American <span class="hlt">winter</span> 'dipole' and <span class="hlt">extremes</span> activity: A CMIP5 assessment</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech">SciTech Connect</a></p> <p>Wang, Shih-Yu Simon; Huang, Wan -Ru; Yoon, Jin -Ho</p> <p>2015-02-13</p> <p>The 2013-2014 <span class="hlt">winter</span> in North American brought intense drought in the West and severe cold in the East. The circulation anomalies were characterized as a dipole: an amplified upper-level ridge over the West Coast and a deepened trough over the central-eastern United States. A previous study using a single model has linked the dipole to the El Nino precursor and found that this link has strengthened in recent years. Here, 17 models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 are used to examine the dipole activity. As a result, most models capture the dipole and its association with El Nino precursor and project this association to strengthen.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017EGUGA..19.9264H','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017EGUGA..19.9264H"><span>Slumping in the rain - <span class="hlt">winter</span> soil structure across Scotland and its physical degradation from <span class="hlt">extreme</span> weather</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Hall, Rebecca; Hallett, Paul; Raffan, Annette; Lilly, Allan; Baggaley, Nikki; Rowan, John; Crookes, Bill; Ball, Bruce</p> <p>2017-04-01</p> <p>Scotland is blessed with fertile and resilient soils that produce great cereal yields and whisky. However, there is worrying anecdotal evidence, confirmed by a small body of science, that some farming practices are causing widespread physical degradation of these soils. Studies from other UK regions have identified soil physical degradation by compaction, unstable seedbeds and erosion as a moderate to serious problem, depending on farming practice, soil properties and climate. In 2015/2016 we sampled 120 fields from 4 catchments in Scotland to describe the state of soil structure in the <span class="hlt">winter</span>. To obtain a rapid assessment, we used the increasingly popular and easily interpretable Visual Evaluations of Soil Structure (VESS) and Subsoil Structure (SubVESS). We found severe soil structural degradation in 18% of topsoils and 9% of subsoils for 120 fields in 4 catchments. The severe 2015/2016 <span class="hlt">winter</span> precipitation, the worst ever recorded, caused a 30% increase in occurrence of severely degraded topsoils, as determined from sampling some of the same fields before and after this unprecedented weather event. Run-off, erosion and nutrient losses were about 10X from degraded parts of fields such as tramlines than either within the field or at less trafficked boundaries. There was some agreement between areas identified as structurally degraded and those ranked as being susceptible to topsoil compaction using a simple model. Broad scale surveys that incorporate temporal sampling, such as the study reported here, are essential to provide regional assessments of soil degradation and to inform follow-on, targeted studies, where more in-depth analysis would be feasible.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70020047','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70020047"><span>Response of shoal grass, Halodule wrightii, to <span class="hlt">extreme</span> <span class="hlt">winter</span> conditions in the Lower Laguna Madre, Texas</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a></p> <p>Hicks, D.W.; Onuf, C.P.; Tunnell, J.W.</p> <p>1998-01-01</p> <p>Effects of a severe freeze on the shoal grass, Halodule wrightii, were documented through analysis of temporal and spatial trends in below-ground biomass. The coincidence of the second lowest temperature (-10.6??C) in 107 years of record, 56 consecutive hours below freezing, high winds and <span class="hlt">extremely</span> low water levels exposed the Laguna Madre, TX, to the most severe cold stress in over a century. H. wrightii tolerated this <span class="hlt">extreme</span> freeze event. Annual pre- and post-freeze surveys indicated that below-ground biomass estimated from volume was Unaffected by the freeze event. Nor was there any post-freeze change in biomass among intertidal sites directly exposed to freezing air temperatures relative to subtidal sites which remained submerged during the freezing period.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27363163','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27363163"><span>[Effects of <span class="hlt">Warming</span> and Straw Application on Soil Respiration and Enzyme Activity in a <span class="hlt">Winter</span> Wheat Cropland].</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Chen, Shu-tao; Sang, Lin; Zhang, Xu; Hu, Zheng-hua</p> <p>2016-02-15</p> <p>In order to investigate the effects of <span class="hlt">warming</span> and straw application on soil respiration and enzyme activity, a field experiment was performed from November 2014 to May 2015. Four treatments, which were control (CK), <span class="hlt">warming</span>, straw application, and <span class="hlt">warming</span> and straw application, were arranged in field. Seasonal variability in soil respiration, soil temperature and soil moisture for different treatments were measured. Urease, invertase, and catalase activities for different treatments were measured at the elongation, booting, and anthesis stages. The results showed that soil respiration in different treatments had similar seasonal variation patterns. Seasonal mean soil respiration rates for the CK, <span class="hlt">warming</span>, straw application, and <span class="hlt">warming</span> and straw application treatments were 1.46, 1.96, 1.92, and 2.45 micromol x (m2 x s)(-1), respectively. ANOVA indicated that both <span class="hlt">warming</span> and straw applications significantly (P < 0.05) enhanced soil respiration compared to the control treatment. The relationship between soil respiration and soil temperature in different treatments fitted with the exponential regression function. The exponential regression functions explained 34.3%, 28.1%, 24.6%, and 32.0% variations of soil respiration for CK, <span class="hlt">warming</span>, straw application, and <span class="hlt">warming</span> and straw application treatments, respectively. <span class="hlt">Warming</span> and straw applications significantly (P < 0.05) enhanced urease, invertase, and catalase activities compared to CK. The relationship between soil respiration and urease activity fitted with a linear regression function, with the P value of 0.061. The relationship between soil respiration and invertase (P = 0.013), and between soil respiration and catalase activity (P = 0.002) fitted well with linear regression functions.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012ClDy...38.1181Y','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012ClDy...38.1181Y"><span>Role of the ocean mixed layer processes in the response of the North Pacific <span class="hlt">winter</span> SST and MLD to global <span class="hlt">warming</span> in CGCMs</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Yim, Bo Young; Noh, Yign; Yeh, Sang-Wook</p> <p>2012-03-01</p> <p>It is investigated how the changes of <span class="hlt">winter</span> sea surface temperature (SST) and mixed layer depth (MLD) under climate change projections are predicted differently in the North Pacific depending on the coupled general circulation models (CGCMs), and how they are related to the dynamical property of the simulated ocean mixed layer. For this purpose the dataset from eleven CGCMs reported to IPCC's AR4 are used, while detailed analysis is given to the MRI and MIROC models. Analysis of the CGCM data reveals that the increase of SST and the decrease of MLD in response to global <span class="hlt">warming</span> tend to be smaller for the CGCM in which the ratio of ocean heat transport (OHT) to surface heat flux (SHF), R (=|OHT/SHF|), is larger in the heat budget of the mixed layer. The negative correlation is found between the changes of OHT and SHF under global <span class="hlt">warming</span>, which may weaken the response to global <span class="hlt">warming</span> in the CGCM with larger R. It is also found that the models with low horizontal resolution tend to give broader western boundary currents, larger R, and the smaller changes of SST and MLD under global <span class="hlt">warming</span>.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013JGRC..118..885Q','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013JGRC..118..885Q"><span>Simulating the formation and fate of dense water in a midlatitude marginal sea during normal and <span class="hlt">warm</span> <span class="hlt">winter</span> conditions</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Querin, Stefano; Cossarini, Gianpiero; Solidoro, Cosimo</p> <p>2013-02-01</p> <p>Dense shelf water production and the deep convection process in the Adriatic Sea are investigated, considering two case studies: the first is representative of the present climatic situation, whereas the second may be expected in a scenario characterized by mild <span class="hlt">winter</span> conditions over the basin. Dense water production and spreading are studied using a high-resolution implementation of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology general circulation model that is initialized and forced with realistic conditions. This paper provides qualitative and quantitative information on mass transport, dense water pathways, thermohaline structures, and the mixing properties of the basin. In the northern Adriatic shelf, seawater temperature is the key element for <span class="hlt">winter</span> dense water production because it contributes more relevantly than salinity in determining density. In the southern Adriatic Sea, a small amount of dense water that cascades directly into the pit can be formed on the narrow western shelf only during cold <span class="hlt">winter</span> conditions. Moreover, open ocean deepwater formation occurs in the middle of the southern basin. In late <span class="hlt">winter</span> and spring, although only when <span class="hlt">winter</span> conditions have been sufficiently cold, northern Adriatic dense shelf water forms a subsurface stream of which the densest part rapidly sinks in the southern pit along the shelf break, whereas its lighter part flows southward and reaches the Otranto Strait. The frequent occurrence of mild <span class="hlt">winter</span> conditions could lead to lower dense water production, with a reduced dense water flow from the Adriatic Sea to the Ionian Sea and a potential great impact on the eastern Mediterranean thermohaline circulation.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/pages/biblio/1325653-warming-combined-more-extreme-precipitation-regimes-modifies-water-sources-used-trees','SCIGOV-DOEP'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/pages/biblio/1325653-warming-combined-more-extreme-precipitation-regimes-modifies-water-sources-used-trees"><span><span class="hlt">Warming</span> combined with more <span class="hlt">extreme</span> precipitation regimes modifies the water sources used by trees</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.osti.gov/pages">DOE PAGES</a></p> <p>Grossiord, Charlotte; Sevanto, Sanna; Dawson, Todd E.; ...</p> <p>2016-09-09</p> <p>The persistence of vegetation under climate change will depend on a plant's capacity to exploit water resources. In addition, we analyzed water source dynamics in piñon pine and juniper trees subjected to precipitation reduction, atmospheric <span class="hlt">warming</span>, and to both simultaneously.</p> </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_13");'>13</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_14");'>14</a></li> <li class="active"><span>15</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_16");'>16</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_17");'>17</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div><!-- col-sm-12 --> </div><!-- row --> </div><!-- page_15 --> <div id="page_16" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_14");'>14</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_15");'>15</a></li> <li class="active"><span>16</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_17");'>17</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_18");'>18</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="301"> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27612306','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27612306"><span><span class="hlt">Warming</span> combined with more <span class="hlt">extreme</span> precipitation regimes modifies the water sources used by trees.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Grossiord, Charlotte; Sevanto, Sanna; Dawson, Todd E; Adams, Henry D; Collins, Adam D; Dickman, Lee T; Newman, Brent D; Stockton, Elizabeth A; McDowell, Nate G</p> <p>2017-01-01</p> <p>The persistence of vegetation under climate change will depend on a plant's capacity to exploit water resources. We analyzed water source dynamics in piñon pine and juniper trees subjected to precipitation reduction, atmospheric <span class="hlt">warming</span>, and to both simultaneously. Piñon and juniper exhibited different and opposite shifts in water uptake depth in response to experimental stress and background climate over 3 yr. During a dry summer, juniper responded to <span class="hlt">warming</span> with a shift to shallow water sources, whereas piñon pine responded to precipitation reduction with a shift to deeper sources in autumn. In normal and wet summers, both species responded to precipitation reduction, but juniper increased deep water uptake and piñon increased shallow water uptake. Shifts in the utilization of water sources were associated with reduced stomatal conductance and photosynthesis, suggesting that belowground compensation in response to <span class="hlt">warming</span> and water reduction did not alleviate stress impacts for gas exchange. We have demonstrated that predicted climate change could modify water sources of trees. <span class="hlt">Warming</span> impairs juniper uptake of deep sources during extended dry periods. Precipitation reduction alters the uptake of shallow sources following extended droughts for piñon. Shifts in water sources may not compensate for climate change impacts on tree physiology. © 2016 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2016 New Phytologist Trust.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014ERL.....9h4019C','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014ERL.....9h4019C"><span>Projected increases in summer and <span class="hlt">winter</span> UK sub-daily precipitation <span class="hlt">extremes</span> from high-resolution regional climate models</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Chan, S. C.; Kendon, E. J.; Fowler, H. J.; Blenkinsop, S.; Roberts, N. M.</p> <p>2014-08-01</p> <p>Summer (June-July-August JJA) UK precipitation <span class="hlt">extremes</span> projections from two UK Met Office high-resolution (12 km and 1.5 km) regional climate models (RCMs) are shown to be resolution dependent. The 1.5 km RCM projects a uniform (\\approx 10%) increase in 1 h JJA precipitation intensities across a range of return periods. The 12 km RCM, in contrast, projects decreases in short return period (≦̸5 years) events but strong increases in long return period (⩾20 years) events. We have low physical and statistical confidence in the 12 km RCM projections for longer return periods. Both models show evidence for longer dry periods between events. In <span class="hlt">winter</span> (December-January-February DJF), the models show larger return level increases (⩾40%). Both DJF projections are consistent with results from previous work based on coarser resolution models.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017EGUGA..1917749C','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017EGUGA..1917749C"><span>Controls on fluvial metamorphosis during global <span class="hlt">warming</span> at the Paleocene-Eocene boundary (56 Ma) in Spain: <span class="hlt">extreme</span> droughts, <span class="hlt">extreme</span> floods or both?</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Castelltort, Sebastien; Chen, Chen; Guerit, Laure; Foreman, Brady; Paola, Chris; Adatte, Thierry</p> <p>2017-04-01</p> <p>How does global <span class="hlt">warming</span> change the frequency and intensity of <span class="hlt">extreme</span> weather events? The response to this question is partly preserved in the geological record. 56 Ma ago, global temperatures increased during the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), leading to a major biotic turnover, but how this event affected the nature of <span class="hlt">extreme</span> events remains unknown. On several continents, fluvial systems with sinuous channels within fine-grained floodplains suddenly transformed at the P-E boundary into apparently coarser-grained braid plains with frequent lateral migrations, washing their muddy floodplains to the seas. This landscape transformation has been related to aridification and intensification of precipitation allowing transport of coarser material as a result of P-E global <span class="hlt">warming</span>, with important implications for predicting the consequences of current global change. Here we test this hypothesis by quantifying the magnitude of grain size change and flow depth at a representative P-E locality in Northern Spain. We find that the size of pebbles in transport and flow depth remained similar to, or even smaller than, pre-PETM conditions. This suggests that, if more seasonal and <span class="hlt">extreme</span> precipitation occurred, they are not necessarily borne out in the predicted deeper flow depths and coarser grain sizes, but rather trigger a shift to multiple active channels. However, an alternative or complementary explanation may rest in pollen data found in coeval marine records and which document a dramatic vegetation shift from permanent conifer forests prior to the crisis into periodic vegetation in brief periods of rain during the hyperthermal episode. Such change induced by long periods of intense droughts, could have enhanced erodibility of channel banks by decreasing root-controlled cohesion of fine-grained floodplains and interfluves, promoting their lateral mobility and the observed fluvial metamorphosis. Thus, although water is regarded as the main agent sculpting</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010ems..confE.575P','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010ems..confE.575P"><span>Madeira <span class="hlt">Extreme</span> Floods: 2009/2010 <span class="hlt">Winter</span>. Case study - 2nd and 20th of February</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Pires, V.; Marques, J.; Silva, A.</p> <p>2010-09-01</p> <p>Floods are at world scale the natural disaster that affects a larger fraction of the population. It is a phenomenon that extends it's effects to the surrounding areas of the hydrographic network (basins, rivers, dams) and the coast line. Accordingly to USA FEMA (Federal Emergency Management Agency) flood can be defined as:"A general and temporary condition of partial or complete inundation of two or more acres of normally dry land area or of two or more properties from: Overflow of inland or tidal waters; Unusual and rapid accumulation or runoff of surface waters from any source; Mudflow; Collapse or subsidence of land along the shore of a lake or similar body of water as a result of erosion or undermining caused by waves or currents of water exceeding anticipated cyclical levels that result in a flood as defined above." A flash flood is the result of intense and long duration of continuous precipitation and can result in dead casualties (i.e. floods in mainland Portugal in 1967, 1983 and 1997). The speed and strength of the floods either localized or over large areas, results in enormous social impacts either by the loss of human lives and or the devastating damage to the landscape and human infrastructures. The <span class="hlt">winter</span> of 2009/2010 in Madeira Island was characterized by several episodes of very intense precipitation (specially in December 2009 and February 2010) adding to a new record of accumulated precipitation since there are records in the island. In February two days are especially rainy with absolute records for the month of February (daily records since 1949): 111mm and 97mm on the 2nd and 20th respectively. The accumulated precipitation ended up with the terrible floods on the 20th of February causing the lost of dozens of human lives and hundreds of millions of Euros of losses The large precipitation occurrences either more intense precipitation in a short period or less intense precipitation during a larger period are sometimes the precursor of</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFM.H43E1539O','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFM.H43E1539O"><span>Regional modeling sensitivity experiments for interpreting the UK <span class="hlt">Winter</span> 2013-2014 <span class="hlt">extreme</span> rain</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Omrani, H.; Vautard, R.; Schaller, N.; Allen, M. R.</p> <p>2015-12-01</p> <p>During the <span class="hlt">winter</span> 2013/2014, the UK saw heavy rainfalls associated with a succession of storms reaching Southern England causing widespread flooding, power cuts and major disruptions to transport. The January precipitation set a record for several rain gauge stations in Southern England. The aim of this study is to evaluate the contribution of the anthropogenic climate change, represented by a modification of the sea surface temperature (SST) on the January precipitation. For that, we conducted a sensitivity experiment by running a set of 108 four-months simulations using WRF model with 9 different physics and 12 different SST fields; 9 for the factual world and 99 for the counter-factual world. A spectral nudging technique was used here to ensure a same atmospheric circulation patterns for all the simulations. Therefore, only the thermodynamic effect is considered here. The analysis is focused on January precipitation over the southern England. Results show for 0,5°C SST difference over the Northern Atlantic, the precipitation in the factual simulations is between 0,4 and 8% higher than the precipitation in the counter-factual simulations depending on the physic. A validation test shows that this value is closer to 8% for the "best physic" simulation. It also show a strong spatial variability where in some region the precipitation is higher in the counter-factual world compared the factual world. Finally, a backward trajectories were calculated to evaluate the sensitivity of the moisture sources and air mass trajectories to the SST in the factual and the counter-factual world.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70032571','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70032571"><span>Design and quantification of an <span class="hlt">extreme</span> <span class="hlt">winter</span> storm scenario for emergency preparedness and planning exercises in California</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a></p> <p>Dettinger, M.D.; Martin, Ralph F.; Hughes, M.; Das, T.; Neiman, P.; Cox, D.; Estes, G.; Reynolds, D.; Hartman, R.; Cayan, D.; Jones, L.</p> <p>2012-01-01</p> <p>The USGS Multihazards Project is working with numerous agencies to evaluate and plan for hazards and damages that could be caused by <span class="hlt">extreme</span> <span class="hlt">winter</span> storms impacting California. Atmospheric and hydrological aspects of a hypothetical storm scenario have been quantified as a basis for estimation of human, infrastructure, economic, and environmental impacts for emergency-preparedness and flood-planning exercises. In order to ensure scientific defensibility and necessary levels of detail in the scenario description, selected historical storm episodes were concatentated to describe a rapid arrival of several major storms over the state, yielding precipitation totals and runoff rates beyond those occurring during the individual historical storms. This concatenation allowed the scenario designers to avoid arbitrary scalings and is based on historical occasions from the 19th and 20th Centuries when storms have stalled over the state and when <span class="hlt">extreme</span> storms have arrived in rapid succession. Dynamically consistent, hourly precipitation, temperatures, barometric pressures (for consideration of storm surges and coastal erosion), and winds over California were developed for the so-called ARkStorm scenario by downscaling the concatenated global records of the historical storm sequences onto 6- and 2-km grids using a regional weather model of January 1969 and February 1986 storm conditions. The weather model outputs were then used to force a hydrologic model to simulate ARkStorm runoff, to better understand resulting flooding risks. Methods used to build this scenario can be applied to other emergency, nonemergency and non-California applications. ?? 2011 The Author(s).</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017ClDy...48.1537D','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017ClDy...48.1537D"><span>Understanding the rapid summer <span class="hlt">warming</span> and changes in temperature <span class="hlt">extremes</span> since the mid-1990s over Western Europe</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Dong, Buwen; Sutton, Rowan T.; Shaffrey, Len</p> <p>2017-03-01</p> <p>Analysis of observations indicates that there was a rapid increase in summer (June-August) mean surface air temperature (SAT) since the mid-1990s over Western Europe. Accompanying this rapid <span class="hlt">warming</span> are significant increases in summer mean daily maximum temperature, daily minimum temperature, annual hottest day temperature and warmest night temperature, and an increase in frequency of summer days and tropical nights, while the change in the diurnal temperature range (DTR) is small. This study focuses on understanding causes of the rapid summer <span class="hlt">warming</span> and associated temperature <span class="hlt">extreme</span> changes. A set of experiments using the atmospheric component of the state-of-the-art HadGEM3 global climate model have been carried out to quantify relative roles of changes in sea surface temperature (SST)/sea ice extent (SIE), anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs), and anthropogenic aerosols (AAer). Results indicate that the model forced by changes in all forcings reproduces many of the observed changes since the mid-1990s over Western Europe. Changes in SST/SIE explain 62.2 ± 13.0 % of the area averaged seasonal mean <span class="hlt">warming</span> signal over Western Europe, with the remaining 37.8 ± 13.6 % of the <span class="hlt">warming</span> explained by the direct impact of changes in GHGs and AAer. Results further indicate that the direct impact of the reduction of AAer precursor emissions over Europe, mainly through aerosol-radiation interaction with additional contributions from aerosol-cloud interaction and coupled atmosphere-land surface feedbacks, is a key factor for increases in annual hottest day temperature and in frequency of summer days. It explains 45.5 ± 17.6 % and 40.9 ± 18.4 % of area averaged signals for these temperature <span class="hlt">extremes</span>. The direct impact of the reduction of AAer precursor emissions over Europe acts to increase DTR locally, but the change in DTR is countered by the direct impact of GHGs forcing. In the next few decades, greenhouse gas concentrations will continue to rise and AAer precursor</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016ClDy..tmp..220D','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016ClDy..tmp..220D"><span>Understanding the rapid summer <span class="hlt">warming</span> and changes in temperature <span class="hlt">extremes</span> since the mid-1990s over Western Europe</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Dong, Buwen; Sutton, Rowan T.; Shaffrey, Len</p> <p>2016-05-01</p> <p>Analysis of observations indicates that there was a rapid increase in summer (June-August) mean surface air temperature (SAT) since the mid-1990s over Western Europe. Accompanying this rapid <span class="hlt">warming</span> are significant increases in summer mean daily maximum temperature, daily minimum temperature, annual hottest day temperature and warmest night temperature, and an increase in frequency of summer days and tropical nights, while the change in the diurnal temperature range (DTR) is small. This study focuses on understanding causes of the rapid summer <span class="hlt">warming</span> and associated temperature <span class="hlt">extreme</span> changes. A set of experiments using the atmospheric component of the state-of-the-art HadGEM3 global climate model have been carried out to quantify relative roles of changes in sea surface temperature (SST)/sea ice extent (SIE), anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs), and anthropogenic aerosols (AAer). Results indicate that the model forced by changes in all forcings reproduces many of the observed changes since the mid-1990s over Western Europe. Changes in SST/SIE explain 62.2 ± 13.0 % of the area averaged seasonal mean <span class="hlt">warming</span> signal over Western Europe, with the remaining 37.8 ± 13.6 % of the <span class="hlt">warming</span> explained by the direct impact of changes in GHGs and AAer. Results further indicate that the direct impact of the reduction of AAer precursor emissions over Europe, mainly through aerosol-radiation interaction with additional contributions from aerosol-cloud interaction and coupled atmosphere-land surface feedbacks, is a key factor for increases in annual hottest day temperature and in frequency of summer days. It explains 45.5 ± 17.6 % and 40.9 ± 18.4 % of area averaged signals for these temperature <span class="hlt">extremes</span>. The direct impact of the reduction of AAer precursor emissions over Europe acts to increase DTR locally, but the change in DTR is countered by the direct impact of GHGs forcing. In the next few decades, greenhouse gas concentrations will continue to rise and AAer precursor</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015EGUGA..17.7931K','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015EGUGA..17.7931K"><span>Changes in sub-daily precipitation <span class="hlt">extremes</span> in a global climate model with super-parameterization under CO2 <span class="hlt">warming</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Khairoutdinov, Marat; Zhou, Xin</p> <p>2015-04-01</p> <p>Virtually all of the projections for future change of <span class="hlt">extreme</span> precipitation statistics under CO2 <span class="hlt">warming</span> have been made using global climate models (GCMs) in which clouds and, in particular, convective cloud systems are not explicitly resolved, but rather parameterized. In our study, a different kind of a GCM, a super-parameterized Community Atmosphere Model (SP-CAM), is employed. In SP-CAM, all the conventional cloud parameterizations are replaced with a small-domain cloud resolving model (CRM), called super-parameterization (SP). The SP is embedded in each grid column of the host GCM. The resolution of each embedded CRM is 4 km, which is generally sufficient to explicitly represent deep convection, which is mostly responsible for <span class="hlt">extreme</span> precipitation events. In this study, we use the SP-CAM to contrast to the present and to conventional climate model, CAM, the sub-daily <span class="hlt">extreme</span> precipitation statistics in response to the sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) and CO2 levels as projected for the end of 21st century in response to the IPCC AR5 RCP8.5 emission scenario. Different mechanisms for <span class="hlt">extreme</span> precipitation changes are discussed.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017EGUGA..19.8316G','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017EGUGA..19.8316G"><span>A preliminary look at the impact of <span class="hlt">warming</span> Mediterranean Sea temperatures on some aspects of <span class="hlt">extreme</span> thunderstorm events in Italy</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Gallus, William; Parodi, Antonio; Miglietta, Marcello; Maugeri, Maurizio</p> <p>2017-04-01</p> <p>As the global climate has <span class="hlt">warmed</span> in recent decades, interest has grown in the impacts on <span class="hlt">extreme</span> events associated with thunderstorms such as tornadoes and intense rainfall that can cause flash flooding. Because warmer temperatures allow the atmosphere to contain larger values of water vapor, it is generally accepted that short-term rainfall may become more intense in a future warmer climate. Regarding tornadoes, it is more difficult to say what might happen since although increased temperatures and humidity in the lowest part of the troposphere should increase thermodynamic instability, allowing for stronger thunderstorm updrafts, vertical wind shear necessary for storm-scale rotation may decrease as the pole to equator temperature gradient weakens. The Mediterranean Sea is an important source for moisture that fuels thunderstorms in Italy, and it has been <span class="hlt">warming</span> faster than most water bodies in recent decades. The present study uses three methods to gain preliminary insight into the role that the <span class="hlt">warming</span> Mediterranean may have on tornadoes and thunderstorms with intense rainfall in Italy. First, a historical archive of Italian tornadoes has been updated for the 1990s, and it will be used along with other data from the European Severe Weather Database to discuss possible trends in tornado occurrence. Second, convection-allowing Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model simulations have been performed for three <span class="hlt">extreme</span> events to examine sensitivity to both the sea surface temperatures and other model parameters. These events include a flash flood-producing storm event near Milan, a non-tornadic severe hail event in far northeastern Italy, and the Mira EF-4 tornado of July 2015. Sensitivities in rainfall amount, radar reflectivity and storm structure, and storm rotation will be discussed. Finally, changes in the frequency of intense mesoscale convective system events in and near the Ligurian Sea, inferred from the presence of strong convergence lines in EXPRESS</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFM.A13E0319S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFM.A13E0319S"><span>Inter-annual Variability of Temperature and <span class="hlt">Extreme</span> Heat Events during the Nairobi <span class="hlt">Warm</span> Season</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Scott, A.; Misiani, H. O.; Zaitchik, B. F.; Ouma, G. O.; Anyah, R. O.; Jordan, A.</p> <p>2016-12-01</p> <p><span class="hlt">Extreme</span> heat events significantly stress all organisms in the ecosystem, and are likely to be amplified in peri-urban and urban areas. Understanding the variability and drivers behind these events is key to generating early warnings, yet in Equatorial East Africa, this information is currently unavailable. This study uses daily maximum and minimum temperature records from weather stations within Nairobi and its surroundings to characterize variability in daily minimum temperatures and the number of <span class="hlt">extreme</span> heat events. ERA-Interim reanalysis is applied to assess the drivers of these events at event and seasonal time scales. At seasonal time scales, high temperatures in Nairobi are a function of large scale climate variability associated with the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) and Global Mean Sea Surface Temperature (GMSST). <span class="hlt">Extreme</span> heat events, however, are more strongly associated with the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). For instance, the persistence of AMO and ENSO, in particular, provide a basis for seasonal prediction of <span class="hlt">extreme</span> heat events/days in Nairobi. It is also apparent that the temporal signal from <span class="hlt">extreme</span> heat events in tropics differs from classic heat wave definitions developed in the mid-latitudes, which suggests that a new approach for defining these events is necessary for tropical regions.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFM.B43M..06B','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFM.B43M..06B"><span>Deeper <span class="hlt">winter</span> snow reduces ecosystem C losses but increases the global <span class="hlt">warming</span> potential of Arctic tussock tundra over the growing season.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Blanc-Betes, E.; Welker, J. M.; Gomez-Casanovas, N.; Gonzalez-Meler, M. A.</p> <p>2015-12-01</p> <p>Arctic <span class="hlt">winter</span> precipitation is projected to increase globally over the next decades, spatial variability encompassing areas with increases and decreases in <span class="hlt">winter</span> snow. Changes in <span class="hlt">winter</span> precipitation strongly affect C dynamics in Arctic systems and may lead to major positive climate forcing feedbacks. However, impacts of predicted changes in snowfall and accumulation on the rate and form of C fluxes (CO2 and CH4) and associated forcing feedbacks from Arctic tundra remain uncertain. We investigated how changes in <span class="hlt">winter</span> precipitation affect net ecosystem CO2 and CH4 fluxes and budgets of moist acidic tundra in an 18-yrs snow fence experiment over a complete growing season at Toolik Lake, AK. Arctic tundra under ambient <span class="hlt">winter</span> precipitation (CTL) was a net source of CO2 and CH4, yielding net C losses over the growing season. Reduced snow (-15-30% snow depth; RS) switched the system to a net CO2 sink mostly by limiting SOC decomposition within colder soils. Snow additions progressively reduced net ecosystem CO2 losses compared to CTL, switching the system into a weaker net CO2 source with medium additions (+20-45% snow depth; MS) and into a small net CO2 sink with high additions (+70-100% snow depth; HS). Increasingly wetter soils with snow additions constrained the temperature sensitivity of aerobic decomposition and favored the anaerobic metabolism, buffering ecosystem CO2 losses despite substantial soil <span class="hlt">warming</span>. Accordingly, Arctic tundra switched from a sustained CH4 sink at RS site to an increasingly stronger CH4 source with snow additions. Accounting for both CO2 and CH4, the RS site became a net C sink over the growing season, overall reducing the global <span class="hlt">warming</span> potential (CO2 equiv.; GWP) of the system relative to CTL. Snow additions progressively reduced net C losses at the MS site compared to CTL and the system transitioned into a net C sink at HS plots, partly due to the slower metabolism of anaerobic decomposition. However, given the greater radiative</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017EGUGA..19.4759F','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017EGUGA..19.4759F"><span>Early and late hot <span class="hlt">extremes</span>, and elongation of the <span class="hlt">warm</span> period over Greece</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Founda, Dimitra; Giannakopoulos, Christos; Pierros, Fragiskos</p> <p>2017-04-01</p> <p>The eastern Mediterranean has been assigned as one of the most responsive areas in climate change, mainly with respect to the occurrence of warmer and drier conditions. In Greece in particular, observations suggest prominent increases in the summer air temperature which in some areas amount to approximately 1 0C/decade since the mid 1970s, while Regional Climate Models simulate further increases in the near and distant future. These changes are coupled with simultaneous increase in the occurrence of hot <span class="hlt">extremes</span>. In addition to changes in the frequency and intensity of hot <span class="hlt">extrems</span>, timing of occurrence is also of special interest. Early heat waves in particular, have been found to increase thermal risk in humans. The study explores variations and trends in timing, namely the date of first and last occurrence of hot <span class="hlt">extremes</span> within the year, and subsequently the hot <span class="hlt">extremes</span> period (season), defined as the time interval (number of days) between first and last hot <span class="hlt">extremes</span> occurrence, over Greece. A case study for the area of Athens covering a longer than 100-years period (1897-2015) was conducted first, which will be extended to other Greek areas. Several heat related climatic indices were used, based either on predefined temperature thresholds such as 'tropical days' (daily maximum air temperature, Tmax >30 0C), 'tropical nights' (daily minimum air temperature, Tmin >20 0C), 'hot days' (Tmax >35 0C), or on local climate statistics such as days with Tmax (or Tmin) > 95th percentile. The analysis revealed significant changes in the period of hot <span class="hlt">extremes</span> and specifically elongation of the period, attributed to early rather than late hot <span class="hlt">extremes</span> occurrence. An earlier shift of the first tropical day and the first tropical night occurrence by approximately 2 days/decade was found over the study period. An overall elongation of the 'hot days' season by 2.6 days/decade was also observed, which is more prominent since the early 1980s. Over the last three decades, earlier</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFMGC34A..08L','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFMGC34A..08L"><span>Attribution of the Recent <span class="hlt">Winter</span> Arctic <span class="hlt">warming</span> and Sea-Ice Decline with Observation-based Data and Coupled Climate Model Simulations</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Lee, S.; Park, D. S. R.; Feldstein, S. B.; Franzke, C. L. E.</p> <p>2015-12-01</p> <p>Wintertime Arctic sea ice extent has been declining since the late 20th century, particularly over the Atlantic sector that encompasses the Barents-Kara Seas and Baffin Bay. This sea-ice decline is attributable to various Arctic environmental changes, such as enhanced downward infrared radiation (IR), preseason sea-ice reduction, enhanced inflow of <span class="hlt">warm</span> Atlantic water into the Arctic Ocean, and sea-ice export. However, their relative contributions are uncertain. Utilizing ERA-Interim reanalysis and satellite-based data, it is shown here that a positive trend of downward IR accounts for nearly half of the sea-ice concentration (SIC) decline during the 1979-2011 <span class="hlt">winter</span> over the Atlantic sector. Furthermore, we find that the Arctic downward IR increase is driven by horizontal atmospheric water flux and <span class="hlt">warm</span> air advection into the Arctic, and not by evaporation and surface heat flux from the Arctic Ocean. These horizontal heat fluxes are linked to La-Nina-like tropical convection. In all CMIP5 climate models that are analyzed here, high pattern correlations are found between the surface air temperature trend and downward IR trend. However, there are two groups of CMIP5 models: one with small correlations between the Arctic surface air temperature trend and the surface heat flux trend (Group 1), and the other with large correlations (Group 2) between the same two variables. There is evidence that the Group 1 models are consistent with the aforementioned observation-based finding that the Arctic <span class="hlt">warming</span> is closely related to large-scale circulation changes. In contrast, the Group 2 models are at odds with this observation in that their Arctic <span class="hlt">warming</span> is more closely tied to surface heat fluxes than with the large-scale circulation change. Interestingly, while Group 1 models have a <span class="hlt">warm</span> or weak bias, Group 2 models have large cold biases in the Arctic. This difference suggests that deficiencies that cause the cold bias of the mean state may contribute to the surface heat</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21088550','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21088550"><span>Effects of dynamic <span class="hlt">warm</span>-up with and without a weighted vest on lower <span class="hlt">extremity</span> power performance of high school male athletes.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Reiman, Michael P; Peintner, Ashley M; Boehner, Amber L; Cameron, Cori N; Murphy, Jessica R; Carter, John W</p> <p>2010-12-01</p> <p>This study examined lower <span class="hlt">extremity</span> power performance, using the Margaria-Kalamen Power Test, after a dynamic <span class="hlt">warm</span>-up with (resisted) and without (nonresisted) a weighted vest. Sixteen (n = 16) high school male football players, ages 14-18 years, participated in 2 randomly ordered testing sessions. One session involved performing the team's standard dynamic <span class="hlt">warm</span>-up while wearing a vest weighted at 5% of the individual athlete's body weight before performing 3 trials of the Margaria-Kalamen Power Test. The second session involved performing the same dynamic <span class="hlt">warm</span>-up without wearing a weighted vest before performing 3 trials of the Margaria-Kalamen Power Test. The <span class="hlt">warm</span>-up performed by the athletes consisted of various lower <span class="hlt">extremity</span> dynamic movements over a 5-minute period. No significant difference was found in power performance between the resisted and nonresisted dynamic <span class="hlt">warm</span>-up protocols (p > 0.05). The use of a dynamic <span class="hlt">warm</span>-up with a vest weighted at 5% of the athlete's body weight was not advantageous for increasing lower <span class="hlt">extremity</span> power output in this study. The results of this study suggest that resisted dynamic <span class="hlt">warm</span>-up protocols may not augment the production of power performance in high school football players.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2005Natur.436..363S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2005Natur.436..363S"><span><span class="hlt">Extreme</span> collisions between planetesimals as the origin of <span class="hlt">warm</span> dust around a Sun-like star</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Song, Inseok; Zuckerman, B.; Weinberger, Alycia J.; Becklin, E. E.</p> <p>2005-07-01</p> <p>The slow but persistent collisions between asteroids in our Solar System generate a tenuous cloud of dust known as the zodiacal light (because of the light the dust reflects). In the young Solar System, such collisions were more common and the dust production rate should have been many times larger. Yet copious dust in the zodiacal region around stars much younger than the Sun has rarely been found. Dust is known to orbit around several hundred main-sequence stars, but this dust is cold and comes from a Kuiper-belt analogous region out beyond the orbit of Neptune. Despite many searches, only a few main-sequence stars reveal <span class="hlt">warm</span> (> 120K) dust analogous to zodiacal dust near the Earth. Signs of planet formation (in the form of collisions between bodies) in the regions of stars corresponding to the orbits of the terrestrial planets in our Solar System have therefore been elusive. Here we report an exceptionally large amount of <span class="hlt">warm</span>, small, silicate dust particles around the solar-type star BD+20 307 (HIP8920, SAO75016). The composition and quantity of dust could be explained by recent frequent or huge collisions between asteroids or other `planetesimals' whose orbits are being perturbed by a nearby planet.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/16034411','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/16034411"><span><span class="hlt">Extreme</span> collisions between planetesimals as the origin of <span class="hlt">warm</span> dust around a Sun-like star.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Song, Inseok; Zuckerman, B; Weinberger, Alycia J; Becklin, E E</p> <p>2005-07-21</p> <p>The slow but persistent collisions between asteroids in our Solar System generate a tenuous cloud of dust known as the zodiacal light (because of the light the dust reflects). In the young Solar System, such collisions were more common and the dust production rate should have been many times larger. Yet copious dust in the zodiacal region around stars much younger than the Sun has rarely been found. Dust is known to orbit around several hundred main-sequence stars, but this dust is cold and comes from a Kuiper-belt analogous region out beyond the orbit of Neptune. Despite many searches, only a few main-sequence stars reveal <span class="hlt">warm</span> (> 120 K) dust analogous to zodiacal dust near the Earth. Signs of planet formation (in the form of collisions between bodies) in the regions of stars corresponding to the orbits of the terrestrial planets in our Solar System have therefore been elusive. Here we report an exceptionally large amount of <span class="hlt">warm</span>, small, silicate dust particles around the solar-type star BD+20,307 (HIP 8920, SAO 75016). The composition and quantity of dust could be explained by recent frequent or huge collisions between asteroids or other 'planetesimals' whose orbits are being perturbed by a nearby planet.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010AGUFM.C43E0601S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010AGUFM.C43E0601S"><span>Sea ice response to an <span class="hlt">extreme</span> negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation during <span class="hlt">winter</span> 2009/2010</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Stroeve, J. C.; Maslanik, J. A.; Serreze, M. C.; Rigor, I. G.; Meier, W.</p> <p>2010-12-01</p> <p>An <span class="hlt">extreme</span> negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) characterized <span class="hlt">winter</span> 2009/2010, leading to a strong Beaufort Gyre, a weak Transpolar Drift Stream (TDS), and near normal ice flow out of Fram Strait. In term of impacts on ice transport, autumn and <span class="hlt">winter</span> of 2009/2010 saw above-average ice transport from north of the Canadian Archipelago westward into the eastern Beaufort and western Chukchi seas (Figure 1). Ice originating from this location is some of the oldest and thickest in the Arctic. Typically, ice that forms within, or drifts into, the Beaufort Gyre may circulate within the Canada Basin for several years, becoming thicker with time. Eventually, the thick ice enters the TDS and exits the Arctic through Fram Strait. A stronger Beaufort Gyre, as tends to accompany the negative phase of the AO, should therefore foster the development of older, thicker ice that survives summer melt, meaning more ice in September. However, a key aspect of the 2009/2010 <span class="hlt">winter</span> transport pattern is that the winds drove the older ice directly across the Beaufort into the Chukchi Sea, as opposed to curving northward in the western Beaufort. Heading into the 2010 melt season we then had the situation where more MYI was present in the Chukchi and southern Beaufort seas than in recent years. A priori, this thicker ice should have had a better chance of surviving summer melt and thus replenished the overall MYI extent. However,by the end of August, most of the old ice transported into these regions had disappeared, further depleting the Arctic's store of old, thick ice. Ice extent in June and July set new record lows, whereas August was the second lowest ice extent during the satellite era. September ice extent ended up as the third lowest. Total areal ice transport across five gates (see inset map) in the western Beaufort (WB), eastern Beaufort (EB), western end of the region north of the Canadian Archipelago (CA) (all three positive for westward transport), Fram Strait (Fram</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2011AGUFMGC51E1054A','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2011AGUFMGC51E1054A"><span>Intensification of seasonal temperature <span class="hlt">extremes</span> prior to the 2°C global <span class="hlt">warming</span> target</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Anderson, B. T.</p> <p>2011-12-01</p> <p>Given current international efforts to limit human-induced global-mean near-surface temperature increases to 2°C, relative to the pre-industrial era, there is an interest in determining what unavoidable impacts to physical, biological, and socio-economic systems might occur even if this target were met. In our research we show that substantial fractions of the globe could experience seasonal-mean temperature <span class="hlt">extremes</span> with unprecedented regularity, even if the global-mean temperature remains below the 2°C target currently envisioned. These results have significant implications for agriculture and crop yield; disease and human health; and ecosystems and biodiversity. To obtain these results, we first develop a novel method for combining numerical-model estimates of near-term increases in grid-point temperatures with stochastically generated anomalies derived from high-resolution observations during the last half of the 20th century. This method has practical advantages because it generates results at fine spatial resolution without relying on computationally-intensive regional-model experiments; it explicitly incorporates information derived from the observations regarding interannual-to-decadal variations in seasonal-mean temperatures; and it includes the generation of thousands of realizations of the possible impacts of a global mean temperature increase on local occurrences of hot <span class="hlt">extremes</span>. Using this method we find that even given the "committed" future global-mean temperature increase of 0.6°C (1.4°C relative to the pre-industrial era) historical seasonal-mean temperature <span class="hlt">extremes</span> will be exceeded in at least half of all years-equivalently, the historical <span class="hlt">extreme</span> values will become the norm-for much of Africa, the southeastern and central portions of Asia, Indonesia, and the Amazon. Should the global-mean temperature increase reach 2°C (relative to the pre-industrial era), it is more likely than not that these same regions, along with large portions of</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1980IJBm...24..167D','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1980IJBm...24..167D"><span>Effect of low <span class="hlt">winter</span> temperatures on milk production of dairy cows grazed on farms in a <span class="hlt">warm</span> temperate climate (Australia)</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Dragovich, D.</p> <p>1980-06-01</p> <p>Two-day milk production figures for dairymen at Armidale (31° S Lat.) and Goulburn (35° S Lat.), Australia, were compared with minimum daily temperatures. Comparisons were made between production levels on days with temperatures above and below 0°C, and between days with varying intensities of cold: differences in production were minor. The infrequent, more prolonged periods of cold weather (“cold” being days on which the minimum temperature was below 0°C) were also associated with only very slight reductions in milk output; and the most pronounced decline in production was not attributable to low temperatures. Although short-term fluctuations in output were not related to low temperature events or low temperatures in combination with rain, thermal stress on plant growth during <span class="hlt">winter</span> contributed to a seasonal downturn in production and below-average annual milk yields in areas with low <span class="hlt">winter</span> temperatures.</p> </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_14");'>14</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_15");'>15</a></li> <li class="active"><span>16</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_17");'>17</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_18");'>18</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div><!-- col-sm-12 --> </div><!-- row --> </div><!-- page_16 --> <div id="page_17" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_15");'>15</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_16");'>16</a></li> <li class="active"><span>17</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_18");'>18</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_19");'>19</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="321"> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28725352','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28725352"><span>Management adaptation of invertebrate fisheries to an <span class="hlt">extreme</span> marine heat wave event at a global <span class="hlt">warming</span> hot spot.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Caputi, Nick; Kangas, Mervi; Denham, Ainslie; Feng, Ming; Pearce, Alan; Hetzel, Yasha; Chandrapavan, Arani</p> <p>2016-06-01</p> <p>An <span class="hlt">extreme</span> marine heat wave which affected 2000 km of the midwest coast of Australia occurred in the 2010/11 austral summer, with sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies of 2-5°C above normal climatology. The heat wave was influenced by a strong Leeuwin Current during an <span class="hlt">extreme</span> La Niña event at a global <span class="hlt">warming</span> hot spot in the Indian Ocean. This event had a significant effect on the marine ecosystem with changes to seagrass/algae and coral habitats, as well as fish kills and southern extension of the range of some tropical species. The effect has been exacerbated by above-average SST in the following two summers, 2011/12 and 2012/13. This study examined the major impact the event had on invertebrate fisheries and the management adaption applied. A 99% mortality of Roei abalone (Haliotis roei) and major reductions in recruitment of scallops (Amusium balloti), king (Penaeus latisulcatus) and tiger (P. esculentus) prawns, and blue swimmer crabs were detected with management adapting with effort reductions or spatial/temporal closures to protect the spawning stock and restocking being evaluated. This study illustrates that fisheries management under <span class="hlt">extreme</span> temperature events requires an early identification of temperature hot spots, early detection of abundance changes (preferably using pre-recruit surveys), and flexible harvest strategies which allow a quick response to minimize the effect of heavy fishing on poor recruitment to enable protection of the spawning stock. This has required researchers, managers, and industry to adapt to fish stocks affected by an <span class="hlt">extreme</span> environmental event that may become more frequent due to climate change.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70175033','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70175033"><span>Application of an <span class="hlt">extreme</span> <span class="hlt">winter</span> storm scenario to identify vulnerabilities, mitigation options, and science needs in the Sierra Nevada mountains, USA</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a></p> <p>Albano, Christine M.; Dettinger, Michael; McCarthy, Maureen; Schaller, Kevin D.; Wellborn, Toby; Cox, Dale A.</p> <p>2016-01-01</p> <p>In the Sierra Nevada mountains (USA), and geographically similar areas across the globe where human development is expanding, <span class="hlt">extreme</span> <span class="hlt">winter</span> storm and flood risks are expected to increase with changing climate, heightening the need for communities to assess risks and better prepare for such events. In this case study, we demonstrate a novel approach to examining <span class="hlt">extreme</span> <span class="hlt">winter</span> storm and flood risks. We incorporated high-resolution atmospheric–hydrologic modeling of the ARkStorm <span class="hlt">extreme</span> <span class="hlt">winter</span> storm scenario with multiple modes of engagement with practitioners, including a series of facilitated discussions and a tabletop emergency management exercise, to develop a regional assessment of <span class="hlt">extreme</span> storm vulnerabilities, mitigation options, and science needs in the greater Lake Tahoe region of Northern Nevada and California, USA. Through this process, practitioners discussed issues of concern across all phases of the emergency management life cycle, including preparation, response, recovery, and mitigation. Interruption of transportation, communications, and interagency coordination were among the most pressing concerns, and specific approaches for addressing these issues were identified, including prepositioning resources, diversifying communications systems, and improving coordination among state, tribal, and public utility practitioners. Science needs included expanding real-time monitoring capabilities to improve the precision of meteorological models and enhance situational awareness, assessing vulnerabilities of critical infrastructure, and conducting cost–benefit analyses to assess opportunities to improve both natural and human-made infrastructure to better withstand <span class="hlt">extreme</span> storms. Our approach and results can be used to support both land use and emergency planning activities aimed toward increasing community resilience to <span class="hlt">extreme</span> <span class="hlt">winter</span> storm hazards in mountainous regions.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016EGUGA..1815290L','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016EGUGA..1815290L"><span><span class="hlt">Extreme</span> coastal storms along the north coast of Ireland: hydrodynamic forcing and beach response during the <span class="hlt">winter</span> seasons of 2013/14 and 2014/15</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Loureiro, Carlos; Marianne, O'Connor; Guisado-Pintado, Emilia; Jackson, Derek; Cooper, Andrew</p> <p>2016-04-01</p> <p>The increase in storminess (frequency, duration and magnitude) and the occurrence of <span class="hlt">extreme</span> coastal storms partly associated with climate change, represent pressing concerns for coastal communities in many regions globally. The Atlantic seaboard of Europe has recently experienced record-breaking <span class="hlt">winter</span> seasons, particularly in Ireland and the UK, where the 2013/14 <span class="hlt">winter</span> was characterised as the stormiest on record according to measured levels of total precipitation, <span class="hlt">extreme</span> wind speeds, and particularly the frequency and intensity of cyclone activity. The enhanced cyclone activity during 2013/14 has resulted in unprecedented sequences of <span class="hlt">extreme</span> water levels and energetic waves and gave rise to widespread coastal erosion and flooding, setting new benchmarks for coastal analysis and offered a glimpse of future storm impact scenarios. A regional analysis of hydrodynamic forcing along the north coast of Ireland over the last two extended <span class="hlt">winter</span> seasons (October to March) has revealed that, although 2013/14 was indeed characterised by an exceptional frequency and intensity of coastal storms, the 2014/15 extended <span class="hlt">winter</span> was significantly stormier. Not only was the number of individual storm events higher, but also the duration and intensity was greater, including record values of offshore significant wave height. The geomorphic response along the sandy coastal stretches of the north coast of Ireland, evaluated from morphological change at a diverse group of beach sites, revealed considerable differences in beach erosion and actual shoreline response. Variability in beach changes during these two <span class="hlt">extreme</span> <span class="hlt">winter</span> seasons is attributed to a variety of factors. These include localised coastal orientation relative to particular storm tracks, the embayed and highly compartmentalised setting of most of the beaches, as well as site-specific morphodynamic mechanisms such as large rip-current cells forcing the onset and/or reactivation of erosional hotspots. Such heterogeneous</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/scitech/biblio/577179','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/scitech/biblio/577179"><span>Assessment of global <span class="hlt">warming</span> effect on the level of <span class="hlt">extremes</span> and intra-annual structure</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech">SciTech Connect</a></p> <p>Lobanov, V.A.</p> <p>1997-12-31</p> <p>In this research a new approach for the parametrization of intra-annual Variations has been developed that is based on the poly-linear decomposition and relationships with average climate conditions. This method allows to divide the complex intra-annual variations during every year into two main parts: climate and synoptic processes. In this case, the climate process is presented by two coefficients (B1, B0) of linear function between the particular year data and average intra-year conditions over the long-term period. Coefficient B1 is connected with an amplitude of intra-annual function and characterizes the <span class="hlt">extremes</span> events and BO-coefficient obtaines the level of climate conditions realization in the particular year. The synoptic process is determined as the remainders or errors of every year linear function or their generalized parameter, such as variance.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014EGUGA..16.7482K','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014EGUGA..16.7482K"><span>Investigation of the structure and stability of the lower atmosphere by microwave ground-based sensing over Nizhniy Novgorod, Russia during abnormally <span class="hlt">warm</span> <span class="hlt">winter</span> 2013 - 2014</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Karashtin, Dmitriy; Berezin, Evgeny; Kulikov, Mikhail; Feigin, Alexander</p> <p>2014-05-01</p> <p>The monitoring of the lower atmosphere structure and stability is required for studying the processes of the convection in the atmosphere, determining the mutual influence of global climate change trends and the current state of regional climate systems, which have an impact on the appearance of dangerous meteorological events (heavy rains, thunderstorms, hail, floods, squalls, tornadoes, etc). There are many methods of measuring structure of the atmosphere: contact (rocket and balloon), contactless - active (lidar) and passive (radiometric), with the placement of the instrumentation on the satellite, airplanes and the Earth's surface (ground-based). For the convection processes study in order to predict dangerous meteorological events the ground-based radiometric sensing of the structure of the lower atmosphere seems to be the most suitable due to higher time and spatial resolution. This report discusses the peculiarities of the structure of the lower atmosphere over Nizhniy Novgorod, Russia during the abnormally <span class="hlt">warm</span> <span class="hlt">winter</span> 2013 - 2014 retrieved from measurements by radiometric complex HATPRO-G3 by Radiometer Physics GmbH. This complex gives vertical thermal and water vapor profiles of the lower atmosphere (0 - 10 km) with time resolution of a few minutes, horizontally resolution of about 10 kilometers and vertically resolution of about 100 meters. The analysis of the structure and stability of the lower atmosphere is based on the vertical distribution of virtual potential temperature derived from these measurements under the hydrostatic approximation. Also the comparison of the results for the abnormally <span class="hlt">winter</span> 2013 - 2014 and the data computed from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model (http://www.wrf-model.org) for <span class="hlt">winter</span> 2011 - 2012 is discussed.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1991GeoRL..18.1987C','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1991GeoRL..18.1987C"><span>Strato-meso-thermospheric coupling at mid-latitudes in the course of mid-<span class="hlt">winter</span> strat-<span class="hlt">warmings</span> during Dyana</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Cevolani, Giordano</p> <p>1991-11-01</p> <p>Wind observations in the meteor region carried out at the CNR radar station near Bologna (45°N 12°E) in the <span class="hlt">winter</span> of 1989-90 during the DYANA (DYnamics Adapted Network for the Atmosphere) project, give evidence of significant strato-meso-thermospheric coupling in the course of two strat-<span class="hlt">warmings</span> recorded at the end of January and in mid-February 1990. Amplification of 10-12 day long-period waves just a few days before the temperature peak at the 10 hPa stratospheric level, and the strong phase variations of the semidiurnal tide (ST) in the 80-110 km region during the two separate events could be of interest for our knowledge of the evolution and influence of a strat-<span class="hlt">warming</span> in the overall middle atmosphere. Possible interference processes and nonlinear mixing between planetary waves with different periodicities could account not only for aspects of wave amplification but also for the presence of subsidiary peaks of long period waves in the amplitude spectra of the observed zonal winds.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016R%26QE...59..270B','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016R%26QE...59..270B"><span>Ground-Based Microwave Monitoring of Middle-Atmosphere Ozone Above Peterhof and Tomsk During Stratospheric <span class="hlt">Warming</span> in the <span class="hlt">Winter</span> of 2013-2014</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Bochkovsky, D. A.; Virolainen, Ya. A.; Kulikov, Yu. Yu.; Marichev, V. N.; Poberovsky, A. V.; Ryskin, V. G.; Timofeyev, Yu. M.</p> <p>2016-09-01</p> <p>We present the results of studying the dynamics of middle-atmosphere ozone above Peterhof (60°N, 30°E) and Tomsk (56°N, 85°E) during stratospheric <span class="hlt">warming</span> in the <span class="hlt">winter</span> of 2013-2014 by the radiophysical method. In the ground-based observations we used the same microwave ozone meters (operated at 110.8 GHz) and the same techniques both for measuring the radiation spectra of ozone molecules and estimation of the vertical distribution of ozone in the middle atmosphere. These results were compared with satellite data on the total ozone content TOC (OMI/Aura), altitude profiles of ozone and temperature in the layer 20-60 km (MLS/Aura), and also with the data on ozone content in the layer 25-60 km, which were obtained using a Bruker IFS-125HR infrared Fourier spectrometer in Peterhof. Significant variations in ozone, which were caused by a stratospheric <span class="hlt">warming</span> of the minor type, were observed in the atmosphere above Peterhof at altitudes of 40 to 60 km. The duration of dynamic perturbations above Peterhof was 2.5 months. Dynamic processes associated with the horizontal transport of air masses, which had an impact on the vertical structure of ozone in the middle atmosphere, were also detected above Tomsk, but this effect was less dependent on the background temperature variations.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.ars.usda.gov/research/publications/publication/?seqNo115=282970','TEKTRAN'); return false;" href="http://www.ars.usda.gov/research/publications/publication/?seqNo115=282970"><span>The <span class="hlt">warm</span> <span class="hlt">winter</span> and spring of 2012: Why degree-days were critical in measuring insect and plant development</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ars.usda.gov/research/publications/find-a-publication/">USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database</a></p> <p></p> <p></p> <p>In the spring of 2012, <span class="hlt">extremely</span> high temperatures were recorded in the upper Midwest during the month of March. This sustained heat wave not only made March the warmest on record, but also induced remarkably fast development of arthropods and plants. In terms of degree-days, however, the arthropod ...</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016EGUGA..18.3623W','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016EGUGA..18.3623W"><span>Changing precipitation <span class="hlt">extremes</span> in a <span class="hlt">warming</span> climate: A basis for design flood estimation</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Wasko, Conrad; Sharma, Ashish</p> <p>2016-04-01</p> <p>The potential for increasing intensity of future rainfall events has significant implications for flooding and the design of infrastructure. However the questions of how precipitation will change in the future, how important these changes are to flooding, and how engineers incorporate these changes into hydrologic design remain as open questions. In the absence of reliable point based estimates of how precipitation will change, many studies investigate the historical relationship between rainfall intensity and temperature as a proxy for what may happen in a warmer climate. Much of the research to date has focussed on changing precipitation intensity, however, temporal and spatial patterns of precipitation are just as important. Here we link higher temperatures to changes in temporal and spatial patterns of <span class="hlt">extreme</span> precipitation events. We show, using observed high quality precipitation records from Australia covering all major climatic zones, that storms are intensifying in both time and space resulting in a greater potential for flooding especially in urban locales around the world. Given that precipitation and antecedent conditions are changing, and, the impacts to flooding are significant, methods of incorporating these changes in catchment modelling are required. Continuous simulation offers a natural flexibility to incorporate the many correlated changes in precipitation that may occur in a future climate. An argument for such a framework using existing continuous simulation alternatives is articulated in concluding this presentation.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016IJBm...60.1885C','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016IJBm...60.1885C"><span>Recent <span class="hlt">warming</span> evidence inferred from a tree-ring-based <span class="hlt">winter</span>-half year minimum temperature reconstruction in northwestern Yichang, South Central China, and its relation to the large-scale circulation anomalies</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Cai, Qiufang; Liu, Yu; Wang, Yanchao; Ma, Yongyong; Liu, Han</p> <p>2016-12-01</p> <p>High-resolution <span class="hlt">winter</span> temperature reconstructions in China are rare, yet vital for the comprehensive understanding of past climate change. In the present work, the first <span class="hlt">winter</span>-half year minimum mean temperature from previous November to current April in northwestern Yichang, South Central China, was reconstructed back to 1875 based on tree-ring material. The reconstruction can explain 55 % of the variance over the calibration period during 1955-2011. The temperature maintained at comparatively low level before 1958, and an abnormal <span class="hlt">warming</span> was seen since 1959. However, the <span class="hlt">warming</span> trend stagnated after 2000 AD. 2001-2010 was the warmest decade not only during the instrumental period but also during the whole reconstructed period. The reconstruction indicates good spatial resemblance to other temperatures series in adjacent areas and Northern Hemisphere, yet the recent <span class="hlt">warming</span> in this study is earlier and more prominent than that of Southeast China. This work also manifests that the <span class="hlt">winter</span>-half year minimum temperature in study area has good agreement with summer (June-September) maximum temperature variation in Southeast China at decadal scale, except that the <span class="hlt">winter</span>-half year <span class="hlt">warming</span> in recent decades is more evident than summer. This reconstruction is not only useful in improving our knowledge of long-term temperature variation but also useful in predicting the tree growth dynamics in the future in the study area.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013AGUFMGC42A..06S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013AGUFMGC42A..06S"><span>Impact of Anthropogenic Land Cover Change on <span class="hlt">Warm</span> Temperature <span class="hlt">Extremes</span> : the summer 2003 heat waves as a testbed</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Stéfanon, M.</p> <p>2013-12-01</p> <p>Events similar to the 2003 mega heat wave will be likely more frequent, intense and longer by the end of the 21st century owing to enhanced atmospheric greenhouse-gas concentrations. Policies for climate mitigation privileges carbon sequestration techniques while land cover change (LCC) may be a preferred alternative in terms of environmental impact, where geography permits. Biogeophysical factors such as albedo, evapotranspiration, and surface roughness may have locally the potential to offset the biogeochemical impact of increased greenhouse-gas. However, so far the set of existing (but not consistent) LCC impact studies conducted in the Mediterranean have contradictory results on summer temperature (cooling or <span class="hlt">warming</span>). Using the Model of the Regional Coupled Earth system (MORCE), the impact of an afforestation scenario (POT) is conducted for both 2002 and 2003 years, and compared to an agricultural scenario (CUR). The favorable meteorological conditions in spring 2003 fasten the development of agricultural vegetation in CUR compared to a) conditions in 2002, and b) to the development of trees in POT. This greater photosynthetic capacity of crops, followed by larger evapotranspiration rates, dampens the <span class="hlt">extreme</span> values of temperature from April to the end of June 2003 (locally by 3°C) and more specifically during the June heat-wave (locally by 1.6°C). It contributes to increase the differences between POT and CUR in 2003 compared to 2002. In July vegetation starts to get limited by soil moisture, and agricultural plants are most affected than trees because of their shallower roots. From early July to October, trees are not too water limited. They can still evaporate, while water stress in CUR makes croplands contribute to enhance the <span class="hlt">warm</span> summer temperatures, especially in 2003. The very hot summer 2003 July-August temperatures are therefore amplified (resp. dampened) by the presence of crops (resp. trees) in CUR (resp. POT). However this cooling capacity of</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014AGUFM.C41A0322S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014AGUFM.C41A0322S"><span><span class="hlt">Warmed</span> <span class="hlt">winters</span> and weakened precipitation on Mt. Everest (central southern Himalaya) impacts glaciers, lakes, permafrost, and river discharges</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Salerno, F.; Guyennon, N.; Thakuri, S.; Freppaz, M.; Balestrini, R.; Vuillermoz, E.; Tartari, G.</p> <p>2014-12-01</p> <p>This contribution aims linking temperature and precipitation patterns detected at high elevation of south slopes of Mt. Everest with a) glacier and lake surfaces, b) altitude limit of permafrost, c) frequency of daily river discharges. The study is carried out though: a) the daily temperature and precipitation reconstruction of the last twenty years (1994-2013) at 5050 m a.s.l. and 25 AWSs located at lower elevation and on Tibetan Plateau b) glacier surfaces (about 400 km2) and lake areas (more than 100 lakes) since 60s using all available satellite imagery c) permafrost distribution carried out with soil temperature measurements (2010-2012) compared with previous studies (70s) d) the results of a stochastic frequency model (wavelet analysis) for detecting river discharge changes in frequency of the Dud Koshi River basin (3000 km2) since 60s. We observed an increasing temperature trend occurred mainly in <span class="hlt">winter</span> months, but during the summer ones we observed a slight decreasing of maximum temperature. We confirm for these high elevations the generalized weakening of the monsoon already observed in literature accounting here over 50% of reduction in the last 20 years! In the previous period (70s to 90s) gridded an reanalysis data revealed for our reference site a slighter increase of mean temperature and weak increase of precipitation. Main climate change driven implications: - The accelerated shrinkage of glaciers observed in the last twenty years, usually inferred to the temperature increase during the summer months, is ascribed here mainly to the regional monsoon weakening. - Supraglacial lakes confirm the acceleration of the negative mass balance of glaciers due to reduced ice velocities caused by decreased precipitation. - Unconnected lakes confirms precisely the observed precipitation trend. - The altitudinal limit of the permanent permafrost seems to be unchanged since the beginning '90s (probably due to stationary summer temperature). - Rivers discharges</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016EGUGA..1815087L','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016EGUGA..1815087L"><span>Contribution of the land-use forcing to the increase in risk of <span class="hlt">warm</span> <span class="hlt">extreme</span> events since 1850 over North America from constrained CMIP5 simulations</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Lejeune, Quentin; Davin, Edouard; Seneviratne, Sonia</p> <p>2016-04-01</p> <p>During the industrial period, large areas of North America experienced a reduction in forest cover and an expansion of agricultural areas. There is indication that this has affected the intensity and frequency of temperature <span class="hlt">extremes</span> through changes in biophysical land surface properties (Christidis et al., 2013, Pitman et al., 2012). However, it has never been addressed in the context of a multi-model transient experiment ensemble. Here we intend to constrain CMIP5 models with observations in order to assess the contribution of historical land-cover changes (LCC) to changes in the risk of <span class="hlt">warm</span> <span class="hlt">extreme</span> events over North America. We have retained only six models from the CMIP5 ensemble that can reproduce the local <span class="hlt">warming</span> effect of deforestation during daytime, which was identified in present-day observations of the impact of deforestation on mean summer temperature (Lee et al, 2011). As for its observed cooling effect during nighttime, we kept the sole model that is able to simulate it. Using a framework derived from the Fraction of Attributable Risk methodology, we have then quantified by how much the increase in risk of getting a particular <span class="hlt">extreme</span> event driven by increased greenhouse gas concentrations (GHG) was damped or amplified over areas which were largely affected by LCC, compared to surrounding ones that experienced few LCC over the same period. We find that the constrained model ensemble indicates an amplification by between 10 and more than 100% by local LCC of the increase in risk of occurrence of a <span class="hlt">warm</span> <span class="hlt">extreme</span> event corresponding to the 90th percentile during the pre-industrial period, depending on the model. This amplification factor gets higher for more <span class="hlt">extreme</span> events, rising to at least 20% for the 995th permille. Regarding nighttime temperatures, the retained model indicates that historical LCC have locally more than cancelled the effect of increased GHG concentrations on the frequency of <span class="hlt">warm</span> <span class="hlt">extreme</span> events corresponding to between the 90th</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=5015046','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=5015046"><span>Record-breaking <span class="hlt">warming</span> and <span class="hlt">extreme</span> drought in the Amazon rainforest during the course of El Niño 2015–2016</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Jiménez-Muñoz, Juan C.; Mattar, Cristian; Barichivich, Jonathan; Santamaría-Artigas, Andrés; Takahashi, Ken; Malhi, Yadvinder; Sobrino, José A.; Schrier, Gerard van der</p> <p>2016-01-01</p> <p>The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the main driver of interannual climate <span class="hlt">extremes</span> in Amazonia and other tropical regions. The current 2015/2016 EN event was expected to be as strong as the EN of the century in 1997/98, with <span class="hlt">extreme</span> heat and drought over most of Amazonian rainforests. Here we show that this protracted EN event, combined with the regional <span class="hlt">warming</span> trend, was associated with unprecedented <span class="hlt">warming</span> and a larger extent of <span class="hlt">extreme</span> drought in Amazonia compared to the earlier strong EN events in 1982/83 and 1997/98. Typical EN-like drought conditions were observed only in eastern Amazonia, whilst in western Amazonia there was an unusual wetting. We attribute this wet-dry dipole to the location of the maximum sea surface <span class="hlt">warming</span> on the Central equatorial Pacific. The impacts of this climate <span class="hlt">extreme</span> on the rainforest ecosystems remain to be documented and are likely to be different to previous strong EN events. PMID:27604976</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27604976','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27604976"><span>Record-breaking <span class="hlt">warming</span> and <span class="hlt">extreme</span> drought in the Amazon rainforest during the course of El Niño 2015-2016.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Jiménez-Muñoz, Juan C; Mattar, Cristian; Barichivich, Jonathan; Santamaría-Artigas, Andrés; Takahashi, Ken; Malhi, Yadvinder; Sobrino, José A; Schrier, Gerard van der</p> <p>2016-09-08</p> <p>The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the main driver of interannual climate <span class="hlt">extremes</span> in Amazonia and other tropical regions. The current 2015/2016 EN event was expected to be as strong as the EN of the century in 1997/98, with <span class="hlt">extreme</span> heat and drought over most of Amazonian rainforests. Here we show that this protracted EN event, combined with the regional <span class="hlt">warming</span> trend, was associated with unprecedented <span class="hlt">warming</span> and a larger extent of <span class="hlt">extreme</span> drought in Amazonia compared to the earlier strong EN events in 1982/83 and 1997/98. Typical EN-like drought conditions were observed only in eastern Amazonia, whilst in western Amazonia there was an unusual wetting. We attribute this wet-dry dipole to the location of the maximum sea surface <span class="hlt">warming</span> on the Central equatorial Pacific. The impacts of this climate <span class="hlt">extreme</span> on the rainforest ecosystems remain to be documented and are likely to be different to previous strong EN events.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016NatSR...633130J','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016NatSR...633130J"><span>Record-breaking <span class="hlt">warming</span> and <span class="hlt">extreme</span> drought in the Amazon rainforest during the course of El Niño 2015-2016</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Jiménez-Muñoz, Juan C.; Mattar, Cristian; Barichivich, Jonathan; Santamaría-Artigas, Andrés; Takahashi, Ken; Malhi, Yadvinder; Sobrino, José A.; Schrier, Gerard Van Der</p> <p>2016-09-01</p> <p>The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the main driver of interannual climate <span class="hlt">extremes</span> in Amazonia and other tropical regions. The current 2015/2016 EN event was expected to be as strong as the EN of the century in 1997/98, with <span class="hlt">extreme</span> heat and drought over most of Amazonian rainforests. Here we show that this protracted EN event, combined with the regional <span class="hlt">warming</span> trend, was associated with unprecedented <span class="hlt">warming</span> and a larger extent of <span class="hlt">extreme</span> drought in Amazonia compared to the earlier strong EN events in 1982/83 and 1997/98. Typical EN-like drought conditions were observed only in eastern Amazonia, whilst in western Amazonia there was an unusual wetting. We attribute this wet-dry dipole to the location of the maximum sea surface <span class="hlt">warming</span> on the Central equatorial Pacific. The impacts of this climate <span class="hlt">extreme</span> on the rainforest ecosystems remain to be documented and are likely to be different to previous strong EN events.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.osti.gov/scitech/servlets/purl/1039923','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech/servlets/purl/1039923"><span>Response of precipitation <span class="hlt">extremes</span> to idealized global <span class="hlt">warming</span> in an aqua-planet climate model: Towards robust projection across different horizontal resolutions</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech">SciTech Connect</a></p> <p>Li, F.; Collins, W.D.; Wehner, M.F.; Williamson, D.L.; Olson, J.G.</p> <p>2011-04-15</p> <p>Current climate models produce quite heterogeneous projections for the responses of precipitation <span class="hlt">extremes</span> to future climate change. To help understand the range of projections from multimodel ensembles, a series of idealized 'aquaplanet' Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM) runs have been performed with the Community Atmosphere Model CAM3. These runs have been analysed to identify the effects of horizontal resolution on precipitation <span class="hlt">extreme</span> projections under two simple global <span class="hlt">warming</span> scenarios. We adopt the aquaplanet framework for our simulations to remove any sensitivity to the spatial resolution of external inputs and to focus on the roles of model physics and dynamics. Results show that a uniform increase of sea surface temperature (SST) and an increase of low-to-high latitude SST gradient both lead to increase of precipitation and precipitation <span class="hlt">extremes</span> for most latitudes. The perturbed SSTs generally have stronger impacts on precipitation <span class="hlt">extremes</span> than on mean precipitation. Horizontal model resolution strongly affects the global <span class="hlt">warming</span> signals in the <span class="hlt">extreme</span> precipitation in tropical and subtropical regions but not in high latitude regions. This study illustrates that the effects of horizontal resolution have to be taken into account to develop more robust projections of precipitation <span class="hlt">extremes</span>.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2009EGUGA..11.5554W','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2009EGUGA..11.5554W"><span>20th century global <span class="hlt">warming</span> favoured enhanced intensity of <span class="hlt">extreme</span> torrential events - a proglacial sediment record in NW French Alps</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Wilhelm, B.; Arnaud, F.; Legaz, A.; Allignol, F.; Enters, D.; Revillon, S.</p> <p>2009-04-01</p> <p>During the past few yeas, considerable climate changes have been observed at high elevation areas of the European Alps. Additionally, one of the main results of high resolution climate modelling is a trend towards both dryer summer conditions and enhanced risk of <span class="hlt">extreme</span> floods. This should have particularly dramatic consequences in alpine areas. Indeed, the development of tourism during the 20th century in the Alps and the rise of population density resulted in an increasing potential risk from natural hazards. Among them, torrential floods are some of the most common and widespread ones. They cause both loss of human life and high damage to property and infrastructure and are particularly destructive in mountain areas. For example, in August 2005, an unusual meteorological situation resulted in a series of catastrophic floods in most regions of the European Alps and particularly in the catchment of the Vorz river, downstream of proglacial Lac Blanc (2170 m a.s.l., Belledonne range, NW French Alps). We studied a series of sediment cores from Lac Blanc, spanning the last ca. 250 years. Through a coupled high resolution sedimentological and geochemical approach we documented about 100 flood deposits and measured their thickness. The age of each deposit has been assessed by radiochemical dating and the recognition of historically-known events - major earthquakes and historical atmospheric lead deposition. Furthermore, a detailed study of regional and local historical archives was conducted allowing us to relate the recognised flood deposits to the ones reported by local population. We hence obtained a flood calendar from 1740 to 2005 with the respective intensity of each event assessed by the thickness of the associated deposit. The flood frequency shows an important and punctual increase at the early end of the Little Ice Age (1830 - 1860) as a response to the beginning <span class="hlt">warming</span> period, which was emphasized by the synchronous local glacier retreat. On the other hand</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013AGUFM.A44C..05A','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013AGUFM.A44C..05A"><span>Midlatitude <span class="hlt">Winter</span> Storms Propagating into the United States: Diagnosing the Moisture Sources for <span class="hlt">Extreme</span> Precipitation Events in the Intermountain West</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Alexander, M. A.; Scott, J.; Swales, D. J.; Hughes, M.; Barsugli, J. J.; Mahoney, K. M.</p> <p>2013-12-01</p> <p>It is not obvious how the large volume of water necessary to sustain intense precipitation events in the intermountain west reach their destination given the distance from the moisture source in the Pacific and the complex topography that impedes the flow of moisture to that region. Since flow over mountain causes air to cool and thus hold less moisture, air parcels may take unique pathways and/or have multiple moisture sources, to retain enough water to have intense precipitation events in states such as Arizona, Colorado, Idaho and Utah. In general, it would be useful to both scientists and water mangers, to better understand the synoptic and climatic processes that influence heavy precipitation events in the US intermountain west. Atmospheric rivers (ARs), long narrow bands of enhanced water vapor transport, are the dominant mechanism for generating intense precipitation events along the west coast of the US during <span class="hlt">winter</span>. While studies over the past 10 years have extensively explored the impact of atmospheric rivers on the temperature and precipitation west of the Sierra Nevada and Cascade mountains, their influence on the weather in the intermountain west remains an open question. For example, does much of the moisture transport occur through narrow gaps in the mountains or can it remain in the atmosphere after passing over higher topography? What synoptic features are important for heavy precipitation to occur? We investigate <span class="hlt">extreme</span> precipitation events and their relation to atmospheric rivers in the US intermountain west (taken here to be between the Sierra Nevada/Cascade Mountains and the Continental Divide). We employ empirical orthogonal function (EOFs) of integrated water vapor transport (IVT), air-parcel trajectory analysis, and time-averaged climate diagnostics to determine the moisture pathways and the broader set of processes that result in these intense precipitation events. These analyses will be performed using Climate Forecast System Reanalysis</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016EGUGA..18.2394P','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016EGUGA..18.2394P"><span>Quantitative and qualitative responses of soil organic carbon to six years of <span class="hlt">extreme</span> soil <span class="hlt">warming</span> in a subarctic grassland in Iceland</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Poeplau, Christopher; Leblans, Niki I. W.; Sigurdsson, Bjarni D.; Kätterer, Thomas</p> <p>2016-04-01</p> <p>Terrestrial carbon cycle feedbacks to global <span class="hlt">warming</span> are expected, but constitute a major uncertainty in climate models. Soils in northern latitudes store a large proportion of the total global biosphere carbon stock and might thus become a strong source of CO2 when <span class="hlt">warmed</span>. Long-term in situ observations of <span class="hlt">warming</span> effects on soil organic carbon (SOC) dynamics are indispensable for an in depth understanding of the involved processes. We investigated the effect of six years of soil <span class="hlt">warming</span> on SOC quantity and quality in a geothermally heated grassland soil in Iceland. We isolated five fractions of SOC along an <span class="hlt">extreme</span> soil <span class="hlt">warming</span> gradient of +0 to +40°C. Those fractions vary conceptually in turnover time from active to passive in the following order: particulate organic matter (POM), dissolved organic carbon (DOC), SOC in sand and stable aggregates (SA), SOC in silt and clay (SC-rSOC) and resistant SOC (rSOC). Soil <span class="hlt">warming</span> of 1°C increased bulk SOC by 22% (0-10 cm) and 27% (20-30 cm), while further <span class="hlt">warming</span> led to exponential SOC depletion of up to 79% (0-10 cm) and 74% (20-30) in the most heated plots (~ +40°C). Only the SA fraction was more sensitive than the bulk soil, with 93% (0-10 cm) and 86% (20-30 cm) losses and with the highest relative enrichment in 13C (+1.6‰ in 0-10 cm and +1.3‰ in 20-30 cm). In addition, the mass of the SA fraction did significantly decline along the <span class="hlt">warming</span> gradient, which we explained by devitalization of aggregate binding mechanisms. As a consequence, the fine SC fraction mass increased with <span class="hlt">warming</span> which explained the relative enrichment of presumably more slow-cycling SOC (R2=0.61 in 0-10 cm and R2=0.92 in 20-30 cm). Unexpectedly, no difference was observed between the responses of SC-rSOC (slow-cycling) and rSOC (passive) to <span class="hlt">warming</span>. Furthermore, the 13C enrichment by trophic fractionation in the passive rSOC fraction was equal to this in the bulk soil. We therefore conclude that the sensitivity of SOC to <span class="hlt">warming</span> was not a</p> </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_15");'>15</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_16");'>16</a></li> <li class="active"><span>17</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_18");'>18</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_19");'>19</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div><!-- col-sm-12 --> </div><!-- row --> </div><!-- page_17 --> <div id="page_18" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_16");'>16</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_17");'>17</a></li> <li class="active"><span>18</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_19");'>19</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_20");'>20</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="341"> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28535490','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28535490"><span>Moderate ocean <span class="hlt">warming</span> mitigates, but more <span class="hlt">extreme</span> <span class="hlt">warming</span> exacerbates the impacts of zinc from engineered nanoparticles on a marine larva.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Mos, Benjamin; Kaposi, Katrina L; Rose, Andrew L; Kelaher, Brendan; Dworjanyn, Symon A</p> <p>2017-09-01</p> <p>There is growing concern about the combined effects of multiple human-induced stressors on biodiversity. In particular, there are substantial knowledge gaps about the combined effects of existing stressors (e.g. pollution) and predicted environmental stress from climate change (e.g. ocean <span class="hlt">warming</span>). We investigated the impacts of ocean <span class="hlt">warming</span> and engineered nanoparticles (nano-zinc oxide, nZnO) on larvae of a cosmopolitan tropical sea urchin, Tripneustes gratilla. Larval T. gratilla were exposed to all combinations of three temperatures, 25, 27 and 29 °C (current SST and near-future predicted <span class="hlt">warming</span> of +2 and + 4 °C) and six concentrations of nZnO (0, 0.001, 0.01, 0.1, 1 and 10 mg nZnO·L(-1)). These stressors had strong interactive effects on fertilization, gastrulation and normal development of 5 day old larvae. High concentrations of nZnO had a negative effect, but this impact was less pronounced for sea urchins reared at their preferred temperature of 27 °C compared to 25 or 29 °C. Larval growth was also impacted by combined stress of elevated temperature and nZnO. Subsequent measurement of the dissolution and aggregation of nZnO particles and the direct effect of Zn(2+) ions on larvae, suggest the negative effects of nZnO on larval development and growth were most likely due to Zn(2+) ions. Our results demonstrate that marine larvae may be more resilient to stressors at optimal temperatures and highlight the potential for ocean <span class="hlt">warming</span> to exacerbate the effects of pollution on marine larvae. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21839679','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21839679"><span>Sphagnum-dwelling testate amoebae in subarctic bogs are more sensitive to soil <span class="hlt">warming</span> in the growing season than in <span class="hlt">winter</span>: the results of eight-year field climate manipulations.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Tsyganov, Andrey N; Aerts, Rien; Nijs, Ivan; Cornelissen, Johannes H C; Beyens, Louis</p> <p>2012-05-01</p> <p>Sphagnum-dwelling testate amoebae are widely used in paleoclimate reconstructions as a proxy for climate-induced changes in bogs. However, the sensitivity of proxies to seasonal climate components is an important issue when interpreting proxy records. Here, we studied the effects of summer <span class="hlt">warming</span>, <span class="hlt">winter</span> snow addition solely and <span class="hlt">winter</span> snow addition together with spring <span class="hlt">warming</span> on testate amoeba assemblages after eight years of experimental field climate manipulations. All manipulations were accomplished using open top chambers in a dry blanket bog located in the sub-Arctic (Abisko, Sweden). We estimated sensitivity of abundance, diversity and assemblage structure of living and empty shell assemblages of testate amoebae in the living and decaying layers of Sphagnum. Our results show that, in a sub-arctic climate, testate amoebae are more sensitive to climate changes in the growing season than in <span class="hlt">winter</span>. Summer <span class="hlt">warming</span> reduced species richness and shifted assemblage composition towards predominance of xerophilous species for the living and empty shell assemblages in both layers. The higher soil temperatures during the growing season also decreased abundance of empty shells in both layers hinting at a possible increase in their decomposition rates. Thus, although possible effects of climate changes on preservation of empty shells should always be taken into account, species diversity and structure of testate amoeba assemblages in dry subarctic bogs are sensitive proxies for climatic changes during the growing season. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFMPP43C2341H','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFMPP43C2341H"><span>Holocene ocean and sea ice history in the European Arctic from past to present <span class="hlt">warm</span> <span class="hlt">extremes</span>: preliminary results from NE Svalbard</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Husum, K.; Belt, S. T.; Divine, D.; Hogan, K.; Ninnemann, U.; Noormets, R.; Miettinen, A.; Godtliebsen, F.</p> <p>2016-12-01</p> <p>Over the last decades, global temperatures have been rising at a rate unprecedented in modern history. This <span class="hlt">warming</span> is particularly pronounced in the Arctic, e.g. via reduced summer sea-ice cover and an ongoing regime shift from thick perennial multiyear ice to an increasingly seasonal sea ice cover in the Arctic Ocean. Modelling experiments also suggest that <span class="hlt">warming</span> over the next century will have its largest effects at high latitudes; however, reliable predictions are hampered by lack of data on time scales longer than instrumental records. In order to investigate and understand the full range of variability in the climate-ocean system, longer time series beyond the instrumental record covering at best the last 150 years should be studied. This study aims to reconstruct Holocene ocean temperatures and sea-ice distribution using a sediment core from the continental margin off northeastern Svalbard. The main heat source for the European Arctic comes from the extension of the northbound flow of the <span class="hlt">warm</span>, saline and nutrient-rich Atlantic water via the North Atlantic Current. This <span class="hlt">warm</span> water flowing into the Arctic with the West Spitsbergen Current submerges underneath fresher cold Arctic water originating from the Arctic Ocean near northwestern Svalbard and becomes a subsurface flow. The study site is unique in that it underlies the two prevailing water masses in the region Atlantic water and Arctic water. Hence, the location is expected to record fluctuations between <span class="hlt">warm</span> Atlantic conditions and cold Arctic conditions with threshold sensitivity to <span class="hlt">warm</span> <span class="hlt">extremes</span>. Preliminary core chronology has been established showing Holocene sedimentation accumulation rates of 8 - 11 cm/kyr enabling decadal- centennial resolution. Holocene ocean temperatures and sea-ice distribution will be reconstructed using foraminiferal stable isotopes (δ18O, δ13C) and biomarkers, including IP25.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27100187','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27100187"><span>Grain Yield and Water Use Efficiency in <span class="hlt">Extremely</span>-Late Sown <span class="hlt">Winter</span> Wheat Cultivars under Two Irrigation Regimes in the North China Plain.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Wang, Bin; Zhang, Yinghua; Hao, Baozhen; Xu, Xuexin; Zhao, Zhigan; Wang, Zhimin; Xue, Qingwu</p> <p>2016-01-01</p> <p>Wheat production is threatened by water shortages and groundwater over-draft in the North China Plain (NCP). In recent years, <span class="hlt">winter</span> wheat has been increasingly sown <span class="hlt">extremely</span> late in early to mid-November after harvesting cotton or pepper. To improve water use efficiency (WUE) and guide the <span class="hlt">extremely</span> late sowing practices, a 3-year field experiment was conducted under two irrigation regimes (W1, one-irrigation, 75 mm at jointing; W2, two-irrigation, 75 mm at jointing and 75 mm at anthesis) in 3 cultivars differing in spike size (HS4399, small spike; JM22, medium spike; WM8, large spike). Wheat was sown in early to mid-November at a high seeding rate of 800-850 seeds m(-2). Average yields of 7.42 t ha(-1) and WUE of 1.84 kg m(-3) were achieved with an average seasonal evapotranspiration (ET) of 404 mm. Compared with W2, wheat under W1 did not have yield penalty in 2 of 3 years, and had 7.9% lower seasonal ET and 7.5% higher WUE. The higher WUE and stable yield under W1 was associated with higher 1000-grain weight (TGW) and harvest index (HI). Among the 3 cultivars, JM22 had 5.9%-8.9% higher yield and 4.2%-9.3% higher WUE than WM8 and HS4399. The higher yield in JM22 was attributed mainly to higher HI and TGW due to increased post-anthesis biomass and deeper seasonal soil water extraction. In conclusion, one-irrigation with a medium-sized spike cultivar JM22 could be a useful strategy to maintain yield and high WUE in <span class="hlt">extremely</span> late-sown <span class="hlt">winter</span> wheat at a high seeding rate in the NCP.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4839561','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4839561"><span>Grain Yield and Water Use Efficiency in <span class="hlt">Extremely</span>-Late Sown <span class="hlt">Winter</span> Wheat Cultivars under Two Irrigation Regimes in the North China Plain</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Wang, Bin; Zhang, Yinghua; Hao, Baozhen; Xu, Xuexin; Zhao, Zhigan; Wang, Zhimin; Xue, Qingwu</p> <p>2016-01-01</p> <p>Wheat production is threatened by water shortages and groundwater over-draft in the North China Plain (NCP). In recent years, <span class="hlt">winter</span> wheat has been increasingly sown <span class="hlt">extremely</span> late in early to mid-November after harvesting cotton or pepper. To improve water use efficiency (WUE) and guide the <span class="hlt">extremely</span> late sowing practices, a 3-year field experiment was conducted under two irrigation regimes (W1, one-irrigation, 75 mm at jointing; W2, two-irrigation, 75 mm at jointing and 75 mm at anthesis) in 3 cultivars differing in spike size (HS4399, small spike; JM22, medium spike; WM8, large spike). Wheat was sown in early to mid-November at a high seeding rate of 800–850 seeds m−2. Average yields of 7.42 t ha−1 and WUE of 1.84 kg m−3 were achieved with an average seasonal evapotranspiration (ET) of 404 mm. Compared with W2, wheat under W1 did not have yield penalty in 2 of 3 years, and had 7.9% lower seasonal ET and 7.5% higher WUE. The higher WUE and stable yield under W1 was associated with higher 1000-grain weight (TGW) and harvest index (HI). Among the 3 cultivars, JM22 had 5.9%–8.9% higher yield and 4.2%–9.3% higher WUE than WM8 and HS4399. The higher yield in JM22 was attributed mainly to higher HI and TGW due to increased post-anthesis biomass and deeper seasonal soil water extraction. In conclusion, one-irrigation with a medium-sized spike cultivar JM22 could be a useful strategy to maintain yield and high WUE in <span class="hlt">extremely</span> late-sown <span class="hlt">winter</span> wheat at a high seeding rate in the NCP. PMID:27100187</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017GeoRL..44.5571R','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017GeoRL..44.5571R"><span>Causality of an <span class="hlt">extreme</span> harmful algal bloom in Monterey Bay, California, during the 2014-2016 northeast Pacific <span class="hlt">warm</span> anomaly</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Ryan, J. P.; Kudela, R. M.; Birch, J. M.; Blum, M.; Bowers, H. A.; Chavez, F. P.; Doucette, G. J.; Hayashi, K.; Marin, R.; Mikulski, C. M.; Pennington, J. T.; Scholin, C. A.; Smith, G. J.; Woods, A.; Zhang, Y.</p> <p>2017-06-01</p> <p>An ecologically and economically disruptive harmful algal bloom (HAB) affected much of the northeast Pacific margin in 2015, during a prolonged oceanic <span class="hlt">warm</span> anomaly. Caused by diatoms of the genus Pseudo-nitzschia, this HAB produced the highest particulate concentrations of the biotoxin domoic acid (DA) ever recorded in Monterey Bay, California. Bloom inception followed strong upwelling during the spring transition, which introduced nutrients and eliminated the <span class="hlt">warm</span> anomaly locally. Subsequently, moderate and intermittent upwelling created favorable conditions for growth and accumulation of HAB biomass, which was dominated by a highly toxigenic species, <fi>P. australis</fi>. High cellular DA concentrations were associated with available nitrogen for DA synthesis coincident with silicate exhaustion. This nutrient influence resulted from two factors: (1) disproportionate depletion of silicate in upwelling source waters during the <span class="hlt">warm</span> anomaly, the most severe depletion observed in 24 years, and (2) silicate uptake by the dense diatom bloom.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2005AGUSM.A31A..02S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2005AGUSM.A31A..02S"><span><span class="hlt">Extreme</span> <span class="hlt">Winter</span> Precipitation Events in the Western United States: The impact of ENSO and the Madden-Julian Oscillation</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Schubert, S.; Chang, Y.; Suarez, M.; Pegion, P.</p> <p>2005-05-01</p> <p>The west coast of the United States occasionally experiences intense <span class="hlt">winter</span> storms that account for a major fraction of the total seasonal rain(snow)fall. In some cases, it is not a single storm, but a series of storms, that batter the west coast in a matter of few weeks. These storms, unfortunately, are often associated with flooding, mudslides and other disasters that can lead to extensive property damage and even loss of life. In this talk, I will review our current understanding of the nature of these storms and the extent to which their occurrence is impacted by El Nino/Southern Oscillation and the Madden Julian Oscillation. The results are based on 50 years of precipitation observations, NCEP/NCAR reanalyses, and idealized experiments with a global atmospheric general circulation model.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4648455','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4648455"><span><span class="hlt">Extreme</span> defoliation reduces tree growth but not C and N storage in a <span class="hlt">winter</span>-deciduous species</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Piper, Frida I.; Gundale, Michael J.; Fajardo, Alex</p> <p>2015-01-01</p> <p>Background and Aims There is a growing concern about how forests will respond to increased herbivory associated with climate change. Carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) limitation are hypothesized to cause decreasing growth after defoliation, and eventually mortality. This study examines the effects of a natural and massive defoliation by an insect on mature trees’ C and N storage, which have rarely been studied together, particularly in <span class="hlt">winter</span>-deciduous species. Methods Survival, growth rate, carbon [C, as non-structural carbohydrate (NSC) concentration] and nitrogen (N) storage, defences (tannins and total polyphenols), and re-foliation traits were examined in naturally defoliated and non-defoliated adult trees of the <span class="hlt">winter</span>-deciduous temperate species Nothofagus pumilio 1 and 2 years after a massive and complete defoliation caused by the caterpillar of Ormiscodes amphimone (Saturniidae) during summer 2009 in Patagonia. Key Results Defoliated trees did not die but grew significantly less than non-defoliated trees for at least 2 years after defoliation. One year after defoliation, defoliated trees had similar NSC and N concentrations in woody tissues, higher polyphenol concentrations and lower re-foliation than non-defoliated trees. In the second year, however, NSC concentrations in branches were significantly higher in defoliated trees while differences in polyphenols and re-foliation disappeared and decreased, respectively. Conclusions The significant reduction in growth following defoliation was not caused by insufficient C or N availability, as frequently assumed; instead, it was probably due to growth limitations due to factors other than C or N, or to preventative C allocation to storage. This study shows an integrative approach to evaluating plant growth limitations in response to disturbance, by examining major resources other than C (e.g. N), and other C sinks besides storage and growth (e.g. defences and re-foliation). PMID:25851136</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25851136','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25851136"><span><span class="hlt">Extreme</span> defoliation reduces tree growth but not C and N storage in a <span class="hlt">winter</span>-deciduous species.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Piper, Frida I; Gundale, Michael J; Fajardo, Alex</p> <p>2015-06-01</p> <p>There is a growing concern about how forests will respond to increased herbivory associated with climate change. Carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) limitation are hypothesized to cause decreasing growth after defoliation, and eventually mortality. This study examines the effects of a natural and massive defoliation by an insect on mature trees' C and N storage, which have rarely been studied together, particularly in <span class="hlt">winter</span>-deciduous species. Survival, growth rate, carbon [C, as non-structural carbohydrate (NSC) concentration] and nitrogen (N) storage, defences (tannins and total polyphenols), and re-foliation traits were examined in naturally defoliated and non-defoliated adult trees of the <span class="hlt">winter</span>-deciduous temperate species Nothofagus pumilio 1 and 2 years after a massive and complete defoliation caused by the caterpillar of Ormiscodes amphimone (Saturniidae) during summer 2009 in Patagonia. Defoliated trees did not die but grew significantly less than non-defoliated trees for at least 2 years after defoliation. One year after defoliation, defoliated trees had similar NSC and N concentrations in woody tissues, higher polyphenol concentrations and lower re-foliation than non-defoliated trees. In the second year, however, NSC concentrations in branches were significantly higher in defoliated trees while differences in polyphenols and re-foliation disappeared and decreased, respectively. The significant reduction in growth following defoliation was not caused by insufficient C or N availability, as frequently assumed; instead, it was probably due to growth limitations due to factors other than C or N, or to preventative C allocation to storage. This study shows an integrative approach to evaluating plant growth limitations in response to disturbance, by examining major resources other than C (e.g. N), and other C sinks besides storage and growth (e.g. defences and re-foliation). © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Annals of Botany</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.osti.gov/scitech/servlets/purl/966057','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech/servlets/purl/966057"><span>Hydrological consequences of global <span class="hlt">warming</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech">SciTech Connect</a></p> <p>Miller, Norman L.</p> <p>2009-06-01</p> <p>The 2007 Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change indicates there is strong evidence that the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide far exceeds the natural range over the last 650,000 years, and this recent <span class="hlt">warming</span> of the climate system is unequivocal, resulting in more frequent <span class="hlt">extreme</span> precipitation events, earlier snowmelt runoff, increased <span class="hlt">winter</span> flood likelihoods, increased and widespread melting of snow and ice, longer and more widespread droughts, and rising sea level. The effects of recent <span class="hlt">warming</span> has been well documented and climate model projections indicate a range of hydrological impacts with likely to very likely probabilities (67 to 99 percent) of occurring with significant to severe consequences in response to a warmer lower atmosphere with an accelerating hydrologic cycle.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017ThApC.tmp...45L','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017ThApC.tmp...45L"><span>Development of heat and drought related <span class="hlt">extreme</span> weather events and their effect on <span class="hlt">winter</span> wheat yields in Germany</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Lüttger, Andrea B.; Feike, Til</p> <p>2017-02-01</p> <p>Climate change constitutes a major challenge for high productivity in wheat, the most widely grown crop in Germany. <span class="hlt">Extreme</span> weather events including dry spells and heat waves, which negatively affect wheat yields, are expected to aggravate in the future. It is crucial to improve the understanding of the spatiotemporal development of such <span class="hlt">extreme</span> weather events and the respective crop-climate relationships in Germany. Thus, the present study is a first attempt to evaluate the historic development of relevant drought and heat-related <span class="hlt">extreme</span> weather events from 1901 to 2010 on county level (NUTS-3) in Germany. Three simple drought indices and two simple heat stress indices were used in the analysis. A continuous increase in dry spells over time was observed over the investigated periods from 1901-1930, 1931-1960, 1961-1990 to 2001-2010. Short and medium dry spells, i.e., precipitation-free periods longer than 5 and 8 days, respectively, increased more strongly compared to longer dry spells (longer than 11 days). The heat-related stress indices with maximum temperatures above 25 and 28 °C during critical wheat growth phases showed no significant increase over the first three periods but an especially sharp increase in the final 1991-2010 period with the increases being particularly pronounced in parts of Southwestern Germany. Trend analysis over the entire 110-year period using Mann-Kendall test revealed a significant positive trend for all investigated indices except for heat stress above 25 °C during flowering period. The analysis of county-level yield data from 1981 to 2010 revealed declining spatial yield variability and rather constant temporal yield variability over the three investigated (1981-1990, 1991-2000, and 2001-2010) decades. A clear spatial gradient manifested over time with variability in the West being much smaller than in the east of Germany. Correlating yield variability with the previously analyzed <span class="hlt">extreme</span> weather indices revealed strong</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20030053448','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20030053448"><span>The Unusual Southern Hemisphere Stratosphere <span class="hlt">Winter</span> of 2002</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Newman, Paul A.; Nash, Eric R.</p> <p>2003-01-01</p> <p>The southern hemisphere stratospheric <span class="hlt">winter</span> of 2002 was the most unusual <span class="hlt">winter</span> yet observed in the southern hemisphere climate record. Temperatures near the edge of the Antarctic polar vortex were considerably warmer than normal over the entire course of the <span class="hlt">winter</span>. The polar night jet was considerably weaker than normal, and was displaced more poleward than has been observed in previous <span class="hlt">winters</span>. These record high temperatures and weak jet resulted from a series of wave events that took place over the course of the <span class="hlt">winter</span>. The first large event occurred on 15 May, and the final <span class="hlt">warming</span> occurred on 25 October. The propagation of these wave events from the troposphere is diagnosed from time series of Eliassen-Palm flux vectors. The wave events tended to occur irregularly over the course of the <span class="hlt">winter</span>, and pre-conditioned the polar night jet for the <span class="hlt">extremely</span> large wave event of 22 September. This large wave event resulted in the first ever observed major stratospheric <span class="hlt">warming</span> in the southern hemisphere. This wave event split the Antarctic ozone hole. The combined effect of the wave events of the 2002 <span class="hlt">winter</span> resulted in the smallest ozone hole observed since 1988.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFMAE12A..04S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFMAE12A..04S"><span>Interferometic Observations of Japanese <span class="hlt">Winter</span> Lightning</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Stock, M.; Kawasaki, Z. I.; Kudo, A.; Nakamura, Y.; Ushio, T.</p> <p>2016-12-01</p> <p>Japanese <span class="hlt">winter</span> lightning happens along the northern coast of Japan, where storms occur because of <span class="hlt">warm</span> air residing over the sea of Japan. Thunderstorms can occur over the Japanese Alps, and also along the coastal area between the mountains and the water. Because of the cold temperatures, the charge layers of the thunderstorm are very close to the ground. Perhaps because of their proximity to the ground, these <span class="hlt">winter</span> storms produce strikes to ground of both positive and negative polarity, which can propagate in either the downward (from the cloud) and upward (from the ground) direction. Presented are the first observations made by the Lightning Interferometer via VHF Emission (LIVE) of Japanese <span class="hlt">winter</span> lightning. LIVE was deployed in Uchinada for the 2015 <span class="hlt">winter</span> season, and consisted of 4 flat plate VHF antennas (30-80 MHz) separated by about 25 meters, and recorded by a 180 MHz digitizer. Japanese <span class="hlt">winter</span> lightning is found to have <span class="hlt">extremely</span> active negative breakdown regions. In cloud negative leaders in <span class="hlt">winter</span> lightning appear to step much more frequently than the in cloud negative leaders of summer lightning.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2004AGUFMPP11B0565H','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2004AGUFMPP11B0565H"><span>How Were Southwest Pacific Pelagic Ecosystems Affected by <span class="hlt">Extreme</span> Global <span class="hlt">Warming</span> During the Initial Eocene Thermal Maximum?</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Hollis, C. J.; Crouch, E. M.; Dickens, G. R.</p> <p>2004-12-01</p> <p>Four sections in eastern New Zealand provide the only South Pacific record of the initial Eocene thermal maximum (IETM): a siliciclastic outer shelf section (Tawanui, Hawkes Bay) and three pelagic-hemipelagic sections forming an outer shelf-upper slope transect across a carbonate ramp (Muzzle, Dee and Mead Streams, Clarence Valley). Although the rocks are too indurated to yield reliable oxygen isotope data, the IETM is identified by bulk carbonate carbon isotopes as a sharp negative excursion followed by gradual recovery over 0.6 to 4.0 m. In all sections, the excursion is mirrored by terrigenous sediment concentration, due to reduced biogenic (carbonate and silica) input and increased terrigenous input. Increased precipitation under <span class="hlt">warm</span> humid conditions appears to have increased terrestrial discharge, recorded by deposition of smectitic marl in pelagic settings and illite/kaolinite-bearing smectitic mudstone in neritic settings. Eutrophic conditions are inferred for the IETM interval at Tawanui based on dysoxia, carbonate dissolution, an acme for the peridinioid dinocyst Apectodinium and abundant Toweius spp in nannofossil assemblages. Continued abundance of Toweius and replacement of Apectodinium by peridinioids of the Deflandrea complex suggests that eutrophic, albeit cooler, conditions persisted for at least 0.5 Ma after the IETM. In contrast, the IETM in Clarence Valley is marked by reduced biogenic silica content but little change in carbonate, and no evidence for carbonate dissolution. Sparse, poorly preserved palynomorphs assemblages suggest organic matter was oxidised under fully oxic conditions. Reduced numbers of upwelling indicators in the siliceous microfossil assemblage and common <span class="hlt">warm</span>-water planktic foraminifera (Morozovella spp.), nannoplankton (Discoaster spp.) and radiolarians (e.g. Podocyrtis and Theocorys spp.) signal a switch from eutrophic to oligotrophic conditions and significant <span class="hlt">warming</span> of near-surface waters. A progressive increase in</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017ACP....17.6243J','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017ACP....17.6243J"><span>Effect of anthropogenic aerosol emissions on precipitation in <span class="hlt">warm</span> conveyor belts in the western North Pacific in <span class="hlt">winter</span> - a model study with ECHAM6-HAM</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Joos, Hanna; Madonna, Erica; Witlox, Kasja; Ferrachat, Sylvaine; Wernli, Heini; Lohmann, Ulrike</p> <p>2017-05-01</p> <p>While there is a clear impact of aerosol particles on the radiation balance, whether and how aerosol particles influence precipitation is controversial. Here we use the ECHAM6-HAM global climate model coupled to an aerosol module to analyse whether an impact of anthropogenic aerosol particles on the timing and amount of precipitation can be detected in North Pacific <span class="hlt">warm</span> conveyor belts. <span class="hlt">Warm</span> conveyor belts are the strongest precipitation-producing airstreams in extratropical cyclones and are identified here with a Lagrangian technique, i.e. by objectively identifying the most strongly ascending trajectories in North Pacific cyclones. These conveyor belts have been identified separately in 10-year ECHAM6-HAM simulations with present-day and pre-industrial aerosol conditions. Then, the evolution of aerosols and cloud properties has been analysed in detail along the identified <span class="hlt">warm</span> conveyor belt trajectories. The results show that, under present-day conditions, some <span class="hlt">warm</span> conveyor belt trajectories are strongly polluted (i.e. high concentrations of black carbon and sulfur dioxide) due to horizontal transport from eastern Asia to the oceanic region where <span class="hlt">warm</span> conveyor belts start their ascent. In these polluted trajectories a weak delay and reduction of precipitation formation occurs compared to clean <span class="hlt">warm</span> conveyor belt trajectories. However, all <span class="hlt">warm</span> conveyor belts consist of both polluted and clean trajectories at the time they start their ascent, and the typically more abundant clean trajectories strongly reduce the aerosol impact from the polluted trajectories. The main conclusion then is that the overall amount of precipitation is comparable in pre-industrial conditions, when all <span class="hlt">warm</span> conveyor belt trajectories are clean, and in present-day conditions, when <span class="hlt">warm</span> conveyor belts consist of a mixture of clean and polluted trajectories.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016JGRD..121.9911S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016JGRD..121.9911S"><span>Recent amplification of the North American <span class="hlt">winter</span> temperature dipole</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Singh, Deepti; Swain, Daniel L.; Mankin, Justin S.; Horton, Daniel E.; Thomas, Leif N.; Rajaratnam, Bala; Diffenbaugh, Noah S.</p> <p>2016-09-01</p> <p>During the <span class="hlt">winters</span> of 2013-2014 and 2014-2015, anomalously <span class="hlt">warm</span> temperatures in western North America and anomalously cool temperatures in eastern North America resulted in substantial human and environmental impacts. Motivated by the impacts of these concurrent temperature <span class="hlt">extremes</span> and the intrinsic atmospheric linkage between weather conditions in the western and eastern United States, we investigate the occurrence of concurrent "<span class="hlt">warm</span>-West/cool-East" surface temperature anomalies, which we call the "North American <span class="hlt">winter</span> temperature dipole." We find that, historically, <span class="hlt">warm</span>-West/cool-East dipole conditions have been associated with anomalous mid-tropospheric ridging over western North America and downstream troughing over eastern North America. We also find that the occurrence and severity of <span class="hlt">warm</span>-West/cool-East events have increased significantly between 1980 and 2015, driven largely by an increase in the frequency with which high-amplitude "ridge-trough" wave patterns result in simultaneous severe temperature conditions in both the West and East. Using a large single-model ensemble of climate simulations, we show that the observed positive trend in the <span class="hlt">warm</span>-West/cool-East events is attributable to historical anthropogenic emissions including greenhouse gases, but that the co-occurrence of <span class="hlt">extreme</span> western warmth and eastern cold will likely decrease in the future as <span class="hlt">winter</span> temperatures <span class="hlt">warm</span> dramatically across the continent, thereby reducing the occurrence of severely cold conditions in the East. Although our analysis is focused on one particular region, our analysis framework is generally transferable to the physical conditions shaping different types of <span class="hlt">extreme</span> events around the globe.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19850042467&hterms=extinction+behavior&qs=N%3D0%26Ntk%3DAll%26Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntt%3Dextinction%2Bbehavior','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19850042467&hterms=extinction+behavior&qs=N%3D0%26Ntk%3DAll%26Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntt%3Dextinction%2Bbehavior"><span>Behavior of zonal mean aerosol extinction ratio and its relationship with zonal mean temperature during the <span class="hlt">winter</span> 1978-1979 stratospheric <span class="hlt">warming</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Wang, P.-H.; Mccormick, M. P.</p> <p>1985-01-01</p> <p>The behavior of the zonal mean aerosol extinction ratio in the lower stratosphere near 75 deg N and its relationship with the zonal mean temperature during the January-February 1979 stratospheric sudden <span class="hlt">warming</span> have been investigated based on the satellite sensor SAM II (Stratospheric Aerosol Measurement) and auxiliary meteorological measurements. The results indicate that distinct changes in the zonal mean aerosol extinction ratio occurred during this stratospheric sudden <span class="hlt">warming</span>. It is also found that horizontal eddy transport due to planetary waves may have played a significant role in determining the distribution of the zonal mean aerosol extinction ratio.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/pubs/37868','TREESEARCH'); return false;" href="https://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/pubs/37868"><span>Slow recovery of lichen on burned caribou <span class="hlt">winter</span> range in Alaska tundra: potential influences of climate <span class="hlt">warming</span> and other disturbance factors</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/">Treesearch</a></p> <p>Randi Jandt; Kyle Joly; C. Randy Meyers; Charles. Racine</p> <p>2008-01-01</p> <p>Lichen regeneration timelines are needed to establish sound fire management guidelines for caribou (Rangifer tarandus) <span class="hlt">winter</span> range. Paired burned and unburned permanent vegetative cover transects were established after 1981, 1977, and 1972 tundra fires in northwestern Alaska to document regrowth of tundra vegetation including caribou forage...</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26111101','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26111101"><span>Climatic and biotic <span class="hlt">extreme</span> events moderate long-term responses of above- and belowground sub-Arctic heathland communities to climate change.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Bokhorst, Stef; Phoenix, Gareth K; Berg, Matty P; Callaghan, Terry V; Kirby-Lambert, Christopher; Bjerke, Jarle W</p> <p>2015-11-01</p> <p>Climate change impacts are not uniform across the Arctic region because interacting factors causes large variations in local ecosystem change. <span class="hlt">Extreme</span> climatic events and population cycles of herbivores occur simultaneously against a background of gradual climate <span class="hlt">warming</span> trends and can redirect ecosystem change along routes that are difficult to predict. Here, we present the results from sub-Arctic heath vegetation and its belowground micro-arthropod community in response to the two main drivers of vegetation damage in this region: <span class="hlt">extreme</span> <span class="hlt">winter</span> <span class="hlt">warming</span> events and subsequent outbreaks of the defoliating autumnal moth caterpillar (Epirrita autumnata). Evergreen dwarf shrub biomass decreased (30%) following <span class="hlt">extreme</span> <span class="hlt">winter</span> <span class="hlt">warming</span> events and again by moth caterpillar grazing. Deciduous shrubs that were previously exposed to an <span class="hlt">extreme</span> <span class="hlt">winter</span> <span class="hlt">warming</span> event were not affected by the moth caterpillar grazing, while those that were not exposed to <span class="hlt">warming</span> events (control plots) showed reduced (23%) biomass from grazing. Cryptogam cover increased irrespective of grazing or <span class="hlt">winter</span> <span class="hlt">warming</span> events. Micro-arthropods declined (46%) following <span class="hlt">winter</span> <span class="hlt">warming</span> but did not respond to changes in plant community. <span class="hlt">Extreme</span> <span class="hlt">winter</span> <span class="hlt">warming</span> and caterpillar grazing suppressed the CO2 fluxes of the ecosystem. Evergreen dwarf shrubs are disadvantaged in a future sub-Arctic with more stochastic climatic and biotic events. Given that summer <span class="hlt">warming</span> may further benefit deciduous over evergreen shrubs, event and trend climate change may both act against evergreen shrubs and the ecosystem functions they provide. This is of particular concern given that Arctic heath vegetation is typically dominated by evergreen shrubs. Other components of the vegetation showed variable responses to abiotic and biotic events, and their interaction indicates that sub-Arctic vegetation response to multiple pressures is not easy to predict from single-factor responses. Therefore, while biotic and climatic events may</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23187619','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23187619"><span>Holocene <span class="hlt">winter</span> climate variability in mid-latitude western North America.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Ersek, Vasile; Clark, Peter U; Mix, Alan C; Cheng, Hai; Edwards, R Lawrence</p> <p>2012-01-01</p> <p>Water resources in western North America depend on <span class="hlt">winter</span> precipitation, yet our knowledge of its sensitivity to climate change remains limited. Similarly, understanding the potential for future loss of <span class="hlt">winter</span> snow pack requires a longer perspective on natural climate variability. Here we use stable isotopes from a speleothem in southwestern Oregon to reconstruct <span class="hlt">winter</span> climate change for much of the past 13,000 years. We find that on millennial time scales there were abrupt transitions between <span class="hlt">warm</span>-dry and cold-wet regimes. Temperature and precipitation changes on multi-decadal to century timescales are consistent with ocean-atmosphere interactions that arise from mechanisms similar to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. <span class="hlt">Extreme</span> cold-wet and <span class="hlt">warm</span>-dry events that punctuated the Holocene appear to be sensitive to solar forcing, possibly through the influence of the equatorial Pacific on the <span class="hlt">winter</span> storm tracks reaching the US Pacific Northwest region.</p> </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_16");'>16</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_17");'>17</a></li> <li class="active"><span>18</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_19");'>19</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_20");'>20</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div><!-- col-sm-12 --> </div><!-- row --> </div><!-- page_18 --> <div id="page_19" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_17");'>17</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_18");'>18</a></li> <li class="active"><span>19</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_20");'>20</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_21");'>21</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="361"> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017EGUGA..1914993P','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017EGUGA..1914993P"><span>Influence of the North Atlantic on European climate <span class="hlt">extremes</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Prömmel, Kerstin; Cubasch, Ulrich</p> <p>2017-04-01</p> <p>With the help of simulations performed with the Max Plank Institute for Meteorology Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) we try to understand the processes and mechanisms leading to European climate <span class="hlt">extremes</span>. These <span class="hlt">extremes</span> include for example cold, <span class="hlt">warm</span> or snowy <span class="hlt">winters</span>. For the analysis of the underlying mechanisms we concentrate on modes like the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Atlantic Multi-decadal Variability (AMV), which are supposed to influence each other. The NAO has a strong impact especially on European <span class="hlt">winter</span> and the changes in minimum temperature are even larger than in maximum temperature. The influence of the spatial resolution of MPI-ESM on the results is also investigated.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2002JApMe..41..890S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2002JApMe..41..890S"><span>Changes in the Frequency of <span class="hlt">Extreme</span> <span class="hlt">Warm</span>-Season Surface Dewpoints in Northeastern Illinois: Implications for Cooling-System Design and Operation.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Sparks, Jesse; Changnon, David; Starke, Jason</p> <p>2002-08-01</p> <p><span class="hlt">Warm</span>-season (1 May-30 September) hourly dewpoint data were examined for temporal changes at two weather stations in northeastern Illinois during a 42-yr period (1959-2000). This area has dense population (greater than 8 million), and shifts to more or less atmospheric moisture have major implications on cooling demands. The 42-yr period was analyzed as two separate arbitrarily chosen equally sized periods, the early (1959-79) and the later (1980-2000) periods. Analyses of data from Chicago's O'Hare International Airport and the Greater Rockford Airport showed a statistically significant increase in the number of hours with dewpoints greater than or equal to 24°C (an important cooling-plant threshold) in the latter period. Examination of heat-wave periods indicated that later (especially 1995 and after) heat waves contained many more <span class="hlt">extreme</span> dewpoint values. These increases in <span class="hlt">extreme</span> dewpoint characteristics in northeastern Illinois affect the operation of, and suggest shifts in design criteria for, air-conditioning systems and affect summer peak electrical loads.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFMGC21E1141R','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFMGC21E1141R"><span><span class="hlt">Extreme</span> heatwaves in Europe and Africa and their impacts at 1.5°C and 2°C <span class="hlt">warming</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Russo, S.; Sillmann, J.</p> <p>2016-12-01</p> <p>In the recent decades Europe and Africa have experienced <span class="hlt">extreme</span> heatwaves with strong impact on human mortality and agriculture. By applying the HeatWave Magnitude Index daily (HWMId) to temperature reanalysis data, we quantify the magnitude and the spatial extent of the most <span class="hlt">extreme</span> heatwaves experienced in Europe and Africa between 1979 and 2016 across different seasons. Results show that in the recent years both continents experienced hotter, longer and more extent heatwaves than in the last two decades of the 20th century. Accordingly with global and regional climate projections, heatwaves are expected to rise in magnitude, duration and spatial extent in the coming decades. By 2030 and 2040 the median globally averaged near-surface temperature shows an increase, with respect to the preindustrial period 1861-1880, of 1.5° and 2° respectively. Under 2° <span class="hlt">warming</span>, heatwaves will have a stronger impact on human mortality and agriculture than those expected under 1.5°, and are expected to occur on a regular basis in both Europe and Africa.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017ESSD....9...63B','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017ESSD....9...63B"><span>A sudden stratospheric <span class="hlt">warming</span> compendium</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Butler, Amy H.; Sjoberg, Jeremiah P.; Seidel, Dian J.; Rosenlof, Karen H.</p> <p>2017-02-01</p> <p>Major, sudden midwinter stratospheric <span class="hlt">warmings</span> (SSWs) are large and rapid temperature increases in the <span class="hlt">winter</span> polar stratosphere are associated with a complete reversal of the climatological westerly winds (i.e., the polar vortex). These <span class="hlt">extreme</span> events can have substantial impacts on <span class="hlt">winter</span> surface climate, including increased frequency of cold air outbreaks over North America and Eurasia and anomalous <span class="hlt">warming</span> over Greenland and eastern Canada. Here we present a SSW Compendium (SSWC), a new database that documents the evolution of the stratosphere, troposphere, and surface conditions 60 days prior to and after SSWs for the period 1958-2014. The SSWC comprises data from six different reanalysis products: MERRA2 (1980-2014), JRA-55 (1958-2014), ERA-interim (1979-2014), ERA-40 (1958-2002), NOAA20CRv2c (1958-2011), and NCEP-NCAR I (1958-2014). Global gridded daily anomaly fields, full fields, and derived products are provided for each SSW event. The compendium will allow users to examine the structure and evolution of individual SSWs, and the variability among events and among reanalysis products. The SSWC is archived and maintained by NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.7289/V5NS0RWP" target="_blank">doi:10.7289/V5NS0RWP</a>).</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://files.eric.ed.gov/fulltext/ED164325.pdf','ERIC'); return false;" href="http://files.eric.ed.gov/fulltext/ED164325.pdf"><span><span class="hlt">Winter</span> Survival: A Consumer's Guide to <span class="hlt">Winter</span> Preparedness.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.eric.ed.gov/ERICWebPortal/search/extended.jsp?_pageLabel=advanced">ERIC Educational Resources Information Center</a></p> <p>Department of Energy, Washington, DC.</p> <p></p> <p>This booklet discusses a variety of topics to help consumers prepare for <span class="hlt">winter</span>. Tips for the home include: <span class="hlt">winterizing</span> the home, dealing with a loss of heat or power failure, and what you need to have on hand. Another section gives driving tips and what to do in a storm. Health factors include suggestions for keeping <span class="hlt">warm</span>, signs and treatment for…</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017ThApC.129.1227K','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017ThApC.129.1227K"><span>Spatial and temporal variation in daily temperature indices in summer and <span class="hlt">winter</span> seasons over India (1969-2012)</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Kumar, Naresh; Jaswal, A. K.; Mohapatra, M.; Kore, P. A.</p> <p>2017-08-01</p> <p>Spatial and temporal variations in summer and <span class="hlt">winter</span> <span class="hlt">extreme</span> temperature indices are studied by using daily maximum and minimum temperatures data from 227 surface meteorological stations well distributed over India for the period 1969-2012. For this purpose, time series for six <span class="hlt">extreme</span> temperature indices namely, hot days (HD), very hot days (VHD), <span class="hlt">extremely</span> hot days (EHD), cold nights (CN), very cold nights (VCN), and <span class="hlt">extremely</span> cold nights (ECN) are calculated for all the stations. In addition, time series for mean <span class="hlt">extreme</span> temperature indices of summer and <span class="hlt">winter</span> seasons are also analyzed. Study reveals high variability in spatial distribution of threshold temperatures of <span class="hlt">extreme</span> temperature indices over the country. In general, increasing trends are observed in summer hot days indices and decreasing trends in <span class="hlt">winter</span> cold night indices over most parts of the country. The results obtained in this study indicate <span class="hlt">warming</span> in summer maximum and <span class="hlt">winter</span> minimum temperatures over India. Averaged over India, trends in summer hot days indices HD, VHD, and EHD are significantly increasing (+1.0, +0.64, and +0.32 days/decade, respectively) and <span class="hlt">winter</span> cold night indices CN, VCN, and ECN are significantly decreasing (-0.93, -0.47, and -0.15 days/decade, respectively). Also, it is observed that the impact of <span class="hlt">extreme</span> temperature is higher along the west coast for summer and east coast for <span class="hlt">winter</span>.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28284225','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28284225"><span>How does the dengue vector mosquito Aedes albopictus respond to global <span class="hlt">warming</span>?</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Jia, Pengfei; Chen, Xiang; Chen, Jin; Lu, Liang; Liu, Qiyong; Tan, Xiaoyue</p> <p>2017-03-11</p> <p>Global <span class="hlt">warming</span> has a marked influence on the life cycle of epidemic vectors as well as their interactions with human beings. The Aedes albopictus mosquito as the vector of dengue fever surged exponentially in the last decade, raising ecological and epistemological concerns of how climate change altered its growth rate and population dynamics. As the global <span class="hlt">warming</span> pattern is considerably uneven across four seasons, with a confirmed stronger effect in <span class="hlt">winter</span>, an emerging need arises as to exploring how the seasonal <span class="hlt">warming</span> effects influence the annual development of Ae. albopictus. The model consolidates a 35-year climate dataset and designs fifteen <span class="hlt">warming</span> patterns that increase the temperature of selected seasons. Based on a recently developed mechanistic population model of Ae. albopictus, the model simulates the thermal reaction of blood-fed adults by systematically increasing the temperature from 0.5 to 5 °C at an interval of 0.5 °C in each <span class="hlt">warming</span> pattern. The results show the <span class="hlt">warming</span> effects are different across seasons. The <span class="hlt">warming</span> effects in spring and <span class="hlt">winter</span> facilitate the development of the species by shortening the diapause period. The <span class="hlt">warming</span> effect in summer is primarily negative by inhibiting mosquito development. The <span class="hlt">warming</span> effect in autumn is considerably mixed. However, these <span class="hlt">warming</span> effects cannot carry over to the following year, possibly due to the fact that under the <span class="hlt">extreme</span> weather in <span class="hlt">winter</span> the mosquito fully ceases from development and survives in terms of diapause eggs. As the historical pattern of global <span class="hlt">warming</span> manifests seasonal fluctuations, this study provides corroborating and previously ignored evidence of how such seasonality affects the mosquito development. Understanding this short-term temperature-driven mechanism as one chain of the transmission events is critical to refining the thermal reaction norms of the epidemic vector under global <span class="hlt">warming</span> as well as developing effective mosquito prevention and control strategies.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AtmRe.170..176A','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AtmRe.170..176A"><span>Inter-annual variations and trends of the urban <span class="hlt">warming</span> in Tehran</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Alizadeh-Choobari, O.; Ghafarian, P.; Adibi, P.</p> <p>2016-03-01</p> <p>Urbanization is an <span class="hlt">extreme</span> case of land-use change which amplifies in most cases the regional <span class="hlt">warming</span>, and highly impacts a number of sensitive sectors, particularly human health. Using near-surface daily temperature records for a 63-yr period from 1951 to 2013, temperature changes over the urban city of Tehran were examined. Statistically significant <span class="hlt">warming</span> trend of the order 0.37 °C/decade has been observed, leading to 2.3 °C rise over the entire 63-yr period, and the <span class="hlt">warming</span> trend has been intensified in recent years. The observed <span class="hlt">warming</span> in the urban city of Tehran has been more than triple the rate of change in the global average temperature, indicating that urbanization has had a significant <span class="hlt">warming</span> effect. The nighttime <span class="hlt">warming</span> (0.62 °C/decade) in the urban city of Tehran was found to be more than three times greater than the daytime <span class="hlt">warming</span> (0.17 °C/decade), resulted in a decreasing trend in the diurnal temperature range (DTR; i.e. the difference between the daytime maximum and nighttime minimum temperatures). In a similar manner, a decreasing trend in the number of cold nights was identified, and the rate was more than twice as high as the rate of increase in the number of <span class="hlt">warm</span> days. From a seasonal perspective, <span class="hlt">warming</span> trends of the urban city of Tehran have been found to be nearly identical in <span class="hlt">winter</span> and summer, with the rates of 0.35 °C/decade and 0.33 °C/decade, respectively. However, a seasonal cycle in the changes of the DTR was identified, with a stronger decrease rate in <span class="hlt">winter</span> than summer because while the nighttime <span class="hlt">warming</span> (which has been greater than the daytime <span class="hlt">warming</span>) has not changed considerably from <span class="hlt">winter</span> to summer, the daytime <span class="hlt">warming</span> has been stronger in summer.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015JGRA..120.5226L','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015JGRA..120.5226L"><span>Thermal and dynamical perturbations in the <span class="hlt">winter</span> polar mesosphere-lower thermosphere region associated with sudden stratospheric <span class="hlt">warmings</span> under conditions of low solar activity</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Lukianova, Renata; Kozlovsky, Alexander; Shalimov, Sergey; Ulich, Thomas; Lester, Mark</p> <p>2015-06-01</p> <p>The upper mesospheric neutral winds and temperatures have been derived from continuous meteor radar (MR) measurements over Sodankyla, Finland, in 2008-2014. Under conditions of low solar activity pronounced sudden mesospheric coolings linked to the major stratospheric <span class="hlt">warming</span> (SSW) in 2009 and a medium SSW in 2010 are observed while there is no observed thermal signature of the major SSW in 2013 occurred during the solar maximum. Mesosphere-ionosphere anomalies observed simultaneously by the MR, the Aura satellite, and the rapid-run ionosonde during a period of major SSW include the following features. The mesospheric temperature minimum occurs 1 day ahead of the stratospheric maximum, and the mesospheric cooling is almost of the same value as the stratospheric <span class="hlt">warming</span> (~50 K), the former decay faster than the latter. In the course of SSW, a strong mesospheric wind shear of ~70 m/s/km occurs. The wind turns clockwise (anticlockwise) from north-eastward (south-eastward) to south-westward (north-westward) above (below) 90 km. As the mesospheric temperature reaches its minimum, the gravity waves (GW) in the ionosphere with periods of 10-60 min decay abruptly while the GWs with longer periods are not affected. The effect is explained by selective filtering and/or increased turbulence near the mesopause.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26173734','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26173734"><span>Short <span class="hlt">winters</span> threaten temperate fish populations.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Farmer, Troy M; Marschall, Elizabeth A; Dabrowski, Konrad; Ludsin, Stuart A</p> <p>2015-07-15</p> <p>Although climate <span class="hlt">warming</span> is expected to benefit temperate ectotherms by lengthening the summer growing season, declines in reproductive success following short, <span class="hlt">warm</span> <span class="hlt">winters</span> may counter such positive effects. Here we present long-term (1973-2010) field patterns for Lake Erie yellow perch, Perca flavescens, which show that failed annual recruitment events followed short, <span class="hlt">warm</span> <span class="hlt">winters</span>. Subsequent laboratory experimentation and field investigations revealed how reduced reproductive success following short, <span class="hlt">warm</span> <span class="hlt">winters</span> underlie these observed field patterns. Following short <span class="hlt">winters</span>, females spawn at warmer temperatures and produce smaller eggs that both hatch at lower rates and produce smaller larvae than females exposed to long <span class="hlt">winters</span>. Our research suggests that continued climate <span class="hlt">warming</span> can lead to unanticipated, negative effects on temperate fish populations.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4518244','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4518244"><span>Short <span class="hlt">winters</span> threaten temperate fish populations</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Farmer, Troy M.; Marschall, Elizabeth A.; Dabrowski, Konrad; Ludsin, Stuart A.</p> <p>2015-01-01</p> <p>Although climate <span class="hlt">warming</span> is expected to benefit temperate ectotherms by lengthening the summer growing season, declines in reproductive success following short, <span class="hlt">warm</span> <span class="hlt">winters</span> may counter such positive effects. Here we present long-term (1973–2010) field patterns for Lake Erie yellow perch, Perca flavescens, which show that failed annual recruitment events followed short, <span class="hlt">warm</span> <span class="hlt">winters</span>. Subsequent laboratory experimentation and field investigations revealed how reduced reproductive success following short, <span class="hlt">warm</span> <span class="hlt">winters</span> underlie these observed field patterns. Following short <span class="hlt">winters</span>, females spawn at warmer temperatures and produce smaller eggs that both hatch at lower rates and produce smaller larvae than females exposed to long <span class="hlt">winters</span>. Our research suggests that continued climate <span class="hlt">warming</span> can lead to unanticipated, negative effects on temperate fish populations. PMID:26173734</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015NatCo...6E7724F','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015NatCo...6E7724F"><span>Short <span class="hlt">winters</span> threaten temperate fish populations</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Farmer, Troy M.; Marschall, Elizabeth A.; Dabrowski, Konrad; Ludsin, Stuart A.</p> <p>2015-07-01</p> <p>Although climate <span class="hlt">warming</span> is expected to benefit temperate ectotherms by lengthening the summer growing season, declines in reproductive success following short, <span class="hlt">warm</span> <span class="hlt">winters</span> may counter such positive effects. Here we present long-term (1973-2010) field patterns for Lake Erie yellow perch, Perca flavescens, which show that failed annual recruitment events followed short, <span class="hlt">warm</span> <span class="hlt">winters</span>. Subsequent laboratory experimentation and field investigations revealed how reduced reproductive success following short, <span class="hlt">warm</span> <span class="hlt">winters</span> underlie these observed field patterns. Following short <span class="hlt">winters</span>, females spawn at warmer temperatures and produce smaller eggs that both hatch at lower rates and produce smaller larvae than females exposed to long <span class="hlt">winters</span>. Our research suggests that continued climate <span class="hlt">warming</span> can lead to unanticipated, negative effects on temperate fish populations.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/15264604','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/15264604"><span>Simulated distributions of Baltic Sea-ice in <span class="hlt">warming</span> climate and consequences for the <span class="hlt">winter</span> habitat of the Baltic ringed seal.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Meier, H E Markus; Döscher, Ralf; Halkka, Antti</p> <p>2004-06-01</p> <p>Sea-ice in the Baltic Sea in present and future climates is investigated. The Rossby Centre Regional Atmosphere-Ocean model was used to perform a set of 30-year-long time slice experiments. For each of the two driving global models HadAM3H and ECHAM4/OPYC3, one control run (1961-1990) and two scenario runs (2071-2100) based upon the SRES A2 and B2 emission scenarios were conducted. The future sea-ice volume in the Baltic Sea is reduced by 83% on average. The Bothnian Sea, large areas of the Gulf of Finland and Gulf of Riga, and the outer parts of the southwestern archipelago of Finland will become ice-free in the mean. The presented scenarios are used to study the impact of climate change on the Baltic ringed seal (Phoca hispida botnica). Climate change seems to be a major threat to all southern populations. The only fairly good <span class="hlt">winter</span> sea-ice habitat is found to be confined to the Bay of Bothnia.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013AGUFM.A33E0265S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013AGUFM.A33E0265S"><span>A modeling study on the role of local SST <span class="hlt">warming</span> on the precipitation trends observed in north Japan during <span class="hlt">winter</span> monsoon</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Sato, T.; Sugimoto, S.</p> <p>2013-12-01</p> <p>The role of sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly in modulating the terrestrial precipitation in <span class="hlt">winter</span> around Japan was investigated using a regional atmospheric model. The terrestrial precipitation over the Japan Sea side (JSS) region in northern Japan was sensitive to the offshore SST anomaly through affecting moisture flux toward Japan. Since the offshore SST was clearly warmer in the 2000s relative to the 1980s, the effect of the long-term SST variation on the terrestrial precipitation trend was examined. The experiment with realistic SST simulated the observed trend in terrestrial precipitation in the JSS region. In contrast, the precipitation trend was significantly reduced in the experiment with climatology SST. Therefore, the long-term SST trend is an important factor for the precipitation trend in the region of Japan and the adjacent oceans where SST has significant trends. Precipitation in the Pacific Ocean side of Japan indicated a weak increasing trend even without the SST trend. This suggests that the long-term variations in extra-tropical cyclones are also an important factor for precipitation trends around the Kuroshio extension.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20020060765','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20020060765"><span>Variability of <span class="hlt">Winter</span> Air Temperature in Mid-Latitude Europe</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Otterman, J.; Ardizzone, J.; Atlas, R.; Bungato, D.; Cierniewski, J.; Jusem, J. C.; Przybylak, R.; Schubert, S.; Starr, D.; Walczewski, J.</p> <p>2002-01-01</p> <p>The aim of this paper is to report <span class="hlt">extreme</span> <span class="hlt">winter</span>/early-spring air temperature (hereinafter temperature) anomalies in mid-latitude Europe, and to discuss the underlying forcing to these interannual fluctuations. <span class="hlt">Warm</span> advection from the North Atlantic in late <span class="hlt">winter</span> controls the surface-air temperature, as indicated by the substantial correlation between the speed of the surface southwesterlies over the eastern North Atlantic (quantified by a specific Index Ina) and the 2-meter level air temperatures (hereinafter Ts) over Europe, 45-60 deg N, in <span class="hlt">winter</span>. In mid-March and subsequently, the correlation drops drastically (quite often it is negative). This change in the relationship between Ts and Ina marks a transition in the control of the surface-air temperature: absorption of insolation replaces the <span class="hlt">warm</span> advection as the dominant control. This forcing by maritime-air advection in <span class="hlt">winter</span> was demonstrated in a previous publication, and is re-examined here in conjunction with <span class="hlt">extreme</span> fluctuations of temperatures in Europe. We analyze here the interannual variability at its <span class="hlt">extreme</span> by comparing <span class="hlt">warm-winter</span>/early-spring of 1989/90 with the opposite scenario in 1995/96. For these two December-to-March periods the differences in the monthly mean temperature in Warsaw and Torun, Poland, range above 10 C. Short-term (shorter than a month) fluctuations of the temperature are likewise very strong. We conduct pentad-by-pentad analysis of the surface-maximum air temperature (hereinafter Tmax), in a selected location, examining the dependence on Ina. The increased cloudiness and higher amounts of total precipitable water, corollary effects to the <span class="hlt">warm</span> low-level advection. in the 1989/90 <span class="hlt">winter</span>, enhance the positive temperature anomalies. The analysis of the ocean surface winds is based on the Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) dataset; ascent rates, and over land wind data are from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF); maps of 2-m temperature, cloud</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFM.C33B0817M','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFM.C33B0817M"><span>Assimilation of Airborne Snow Observatory Snow Water Equivalent to Improve Runoff Forecasting Model Performance and Reservoir Management During <span class="hlt">Warm</span> and Dry <span class="hlt">Winters</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>McGurk, B. J.; Painter, T. H.</p> <p>2015-12-01</p> <p>The Airborne Snow Observatory (ASO) NASA-JPL demonstration mission has collected detailed snow information for portions of the Tuolumne Basin in California for three years, 2013 - 2015. Both 2014 and 2015 were low snow years, and 2015 was exceptionally <span class="hlt">warm</span> and analogous to future years after climate change. The ASO uses an imaging spectrometer and LiDAR sensors mounted in an aircraft to collect snow depth and extent data, and snow albedo. By combining ground and modeled density fields, the ~weekly flights over the Tuolumne produced both basin-wide and detailed sub-basin snow water equivalent (SWE) estimates that were provided to Hetch Hetchy Reservoir operators. The data were also assimilated into an hydrologic simulation model in an attempt to improve the accuracy and timing of a runoff forecasting tool that can be used to improve the management of Hetch Hetchy Reservoir, the source of 85% of the water supply for 2.6 million people on the San Francisco Peninsula. The USGS Precipitation Runoff Modeling System was calibrated to the 1181 square kilometer basin and simulation results compared to observed runoff with and without assimilation of ASO data. Simulated and observed were also compared with observed with both single updates associated with each flight, and with sequential updates from each flight. Sequential updating was found to improve correlation between observed and simulated reservoir inflows, and there by improve the ability of reservoir operators to more efficiently allocate the last half of the recession limb of snowmelt inflow and be assured of filling the reservoir and minimizing ecologically-damaging late season spills.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014AGUFMGC31B0454S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014AGUFMGC31B0454S"><span>On-Going Temperature <span class="hlt">Extremes</span> in Siberia</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Shulgina, T. M.; Gordov, E. P.</p> <p>2014-12-01</p> <p>Ongoing global climate changes accompanied by the restructuring of global processes in the atmosphere and biosphere are strongly pronounced in the Northern Eurasia regions, especially in Siberia. Temperature trends (grows up to 0.5 °C per decade), more frequent occurrence of temperature <span class="hlt">extremes</span> provoked serious natural disasters (2010 heat waves in Russia, 2013 flood in Russia's Far East) led to socio-economical impact (crop damages, infrastructure failures, respectively). To get reliable knowledge on location, frequency and magnitude of observed <span class="hlt">extremes</span> we have studied daily max/min temperature trends based on ECMWF ERA Interim Reanalysis data (0,25°×0,25°). This dataset is most accurately reproduces observed temperature behavior in the region. Statistical analysis of daily temperature time series (1979-2012) indicates the asymmetric changes in distribution tails of such <span class="hlt">extreme</span> indices as <span class="hlt">warm</span>/cold days/nights. Namely, the <span class="hlt">warming</span> during <span class="hlt">winter</span> cold nights is stronger than during <span class="hlt">warm</span> nights, especially over the north of Siberia. Increases in minimum temperatures are more significant than in maximum temperatures. <span class="hlt">Warming</span> determined at the high latitudes of the region is achieved mostly due to <span class="hlt">winter</span> temperature changes. South area of Siberia has slightly cooling during <span class="hlt">winter</span> and summer. Results obtained provide regional decision-makers with detailed high spatial and temporal resolution climatic information required for adaptation and mitigation measures development. Calculations presented have been realized using information-computational web-GIS system "Climate" (http://climate.scert.ru/) which automatically generates the archive of calculated fields ready for multidisciplinary studies of regional climate change impacts. The authors acknowledge partial financial support for this research from the RFBR (13-05-12034, 14-05-00502), SB RAS 131 and VIII.80.2.1.) and grant of the President of RF (№ 181).</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014TCD.....8.5911S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014TCD.....8.5911S"><span>Weak precipitation, <span class="hlt">warm</span> <span class="hlt">winters</span> and springs impact glaciers of south slopes of Mt. Everest (central Himalaya) in the last two decades (1994-2013)</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Salerno, F.; Guyennon, N.; Thakuri, S.; Viviano, G.; Romano, E.; Vuillermoz, E.; Cristofanelli, P.; Stocchi, P.; Agrillo, G.; Ma, Y.; Tartari, G.</p> <p>2014-12-01</p> <p>Studies on recent climate trends from the Himalayan range are limited, and even completely absent at high elevation. This contribution specifically explores the southern slopes of Mt. Everest (central Himalaya), analyzing the minimum, maximum, and mean temperature and precipitation time series reconstructed from seven stations located between 2660 and 5600m a.s.l. over the last twenty years (1994-2013). We complete this analysis with data from all the existing ground weather stations located on both sides of the mountain range (Koshi Basin) over the same period. Overall we observe that the main and more significant increase in temperature is concentrated outside of the monsoon period. At higher elevations minimum temperature (0.072 ± 0.011 °C a-1, p < 0.001) increased far more than maximum temperature (0.009 ± 0.012 °C a-1, p > 0.1), while mean temperature increased by 0.044 ± 0.008 °C a-1, p < 0.05. Moreover, we note a substantial precipitation weakening (9.3 ± 1.8mm a-1, p < 0.01 during the monsoon season). The annual rate of decrease at higher elevation is similar to the one at lower altitudes on the southern side of the Koshi Basin, but here the drier conditions of this remote environment make the fractional loss much more consistent (47% during the monsoon period). This study contributes to change the perspective on which climatic driver (temperature vs. precipitation) led mainly the glacier responses in the last twenty years. The main implications are the following: (1) the negative mass balances of glaciers observed in this region can be more ascribed to less accumulation due to weaker precipitation than to an increase of melting processes. (2) The melting processes have only been favored during <span class="hlt">winter</span> and spring months and close to the glaciers terminus. (3) A decreasing of the probability of snowfall has significantly interested only the glaciers ablation zones (10%, p < 0.05), but the magnitude of this phenomenon is decidedly lower than the</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015TCry....9.1229S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015TCry....9.1229S"><span>Weak precipitation, <span class="hlt">warm</span> <span class="hlt">winters</span> and springs impact glaciers of south slopes of Mt. Everest (central Himalaya) in the last 2 decades (1994-2013)</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Salerno, F.; Guyennon, N.; Thakuri, S.; Viviano, G.; Romano, E.; Vuillermoz, E.; Cristofanelli, P.; Stocchi, P.; Agrillo, G.; Ma, Y.; Tartari, G.</p> <p>2015-06-01</p> <p>Studies on recent climate trends from the Himalayan range are limited, and even completely absent at high elevation (> 5000 m a.s.l.). This study specifically explores the southern slopes of Mt. Everest, analyzing the time series of temperature and precipitation reconstructed from seven stations located between 2660 and 5600 m a.s.l. during 1994-2013, complemented with the data from all existing ground weather stations located on both sides of the mountain range (Koshi Basin) over the same period. Overall we find that the main and most significant increase in temperature is concentrated outside of the monsoon period. Above 5000 m a.s.l. the increasing trend in the time series of minimum temperature (+0.072 °C yr-1) is much stronger than of maximum temperature (+0.009 °C yr-1), while the mean temperature increased by +0.044 °C yr-1. Moreover, we note a substantial liquid precipitation weakening (-9.3 mm yr-1) during the monsoon season. The annual rate of decrease in precipitation at higher elevations is similar to the one at lower elevations on the southern side of the Koshi Basin, but the drier conditions of this remote environment make the fractional loss much more consistent (-47% during the monsoon period). Our results challenge the assumptions on whether temperature or precipitation is the main driver of recent glacier mass changes in the region. The main implications are the following: (1) the negative mass balances of glaciers observed in this region can be more ascribed to a decrease in accumulation (snowfall) than to an increase in surface melting; (2) the melting has only been favoured during <span class="hlt">winter</span> and spring months and close to the glaciers terminus; (3) a decrease in the probability of snowfall (-10%) has made a significant impact only at glacier ablation zone, but the magnitude of this decrease is distinctly lower than the observed decrease in precipitation; (4) the decrease in accumulation could have caused the observed decrease in glacier flow</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016JGRG..121..895L','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016JGRG..121..895L"><span>Fourfold higher tundra volatile emissions due to arctic summer <span class="hlt">warming</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Lindwall, Frida; Schollert, Michelle; Michelsen, Anders; Blok, Daan; Rinnan, Riikka</p> <p>2016-03-01</p> <p>Biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs), which are mainly emitted by vegetation, may create either positive or negative climate forcing feedbacks. In the Subarctic, BVOC emissions are highly responsive to temperature, but the effects of climatic <span class="hlt">warming</span> on BVOC emissions have not been assessed in more <span class="hlt">extreme</span> arctic ecosystems. The Arctic undergoes rapid climate change, with air temperatures increasing at twice the rate of the global mean. Also, the amount of <span class="hlt">winter</span> precipitation is projected to increase in large areas of the Arctic, and it is unknown how <span class="hlt">winter</span> snow depth affects BVOC emissions during summer. Here we examine the responses of BVOC emissions to experimental summer <span class="hlt">warming</span> and <span class="hlt">winter</span> snow addition—each treatment alone and in combination—in an arctic heath during two growing seasons. We observed a 280% increase relative to ambient in BVOC emissions in response to a 4°C summer <span class="hlt">warming</span>. Snow addition had minor effects on growing season BVOC emissions after one <span class="hlt">winter</span> but decreased BVOC emissions after the second <span class="hlt">winter</span>. We also examined differences between canopy and air temperatures and found that the tundra canopy surface was on average 7.7°C and maximum 21.6°C warmer than air. This large difference suggests that the tundra surface temperature is an important driver for emissions of BVOCs, which are temperature dependent. Our results demonstrate a strong response of BVOC emissions to increasing temperatures in the Arctic, suggesting that emission rates will increase with climate <span class="hlt">warming</span> and thereby feed back to regional climate change.</p> </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_17");'>17</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_18");'>18</a></li> <li class="active"><span>19</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_20");'>20</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_21");'>21</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div><!-- col-sm-12 --> </div><!-- row --> </div><!-- page_19 --> <div id="page_20" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_18");'>18</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_19");'>19</a></li> <li class="active"><span>20</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_21");'>21</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_22");'>22</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="381"> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2005RPPh...68.1343H','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2005RPPh...68.1343H"><span>Global <span class="hlt">warming</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Houghton, John</p> <p>2005-06-01</p> <p>'Global <span class="hlt">warming</span>' is a phrase that refers to the effect on the climate of human activities, in particular the burning of fossil fuels (coal, oil and gas) and large-scale deforestation, which cause emissions to the atmosphere of large amounts of 'greenhouse gases', of which the most important is carbon dioxide. Such gases absorb infrared radiation emitted by the Earth's surface and act as blankets over the surface keeping it warmer than it would otherwise be. Associated with this <span class="hlt">warming</span> are changes of climate. The basic science of the 'greenhouse effect' that leads to the <span class="hlt">warming</span> is well understood. More detailed understanding relies on numerical models of the climate that integrate the basic dynamical and physical equations describing the complete climate system. Many of the likely characteristics of the resulting changes in climate (such as more frequent heat waves, increases in rainfall, increase in frequency and intensity of many <span class="hlt">extreme</span> climate events) can be identified. Substantial uncertainties remain in knowledge of some of the feedbacks within the climate system (that affect the overall magnitude of change) and in much of the detail of likely regional change. Because of its negative impacts on human communities (including for instance substantial sea-level rise) and on ecosystems, global <span class="hlt">warming</span> is the most important environmental problem the world faces. Adaptation to the inevitable impacts and mitigation to reduce their magnitude are both necessary. International action is being taken by the world's scientific and political communities. Because of the need for urgent action, the greatest challenge is to move rapidly to much increased energy efficiency and to non-fossil-fuel energy sources.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AdAtS..34..289W','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AdAtS..34..289W"><span>Changes in mean and <span class="hlt">extreme</span> temperature and precipitation over the arid region of northwestern China: Observation and projection</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Wang, Yujie; Zhou, Botao; Qin, Dahe; Wu, Jia; Gao, Rong; Song, Lianchun</p> <p>2017-03-01</p> <p>This paper reports a comprehensive study on the observed and projected spatiotemporal changes in mean and <span class="hlt">extreme</span> climate over the arid region of northwestern China, based on gridded observation data and CMIP5 simulations under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The observational results reveal an increase in annual mean temperature since 1961, largely attributable to the increase in minimum temperature. The annual mean precipitation also exhibits a significant increasing tendency. The precipitation amount in the most recent decade was greater than in any preceding decade since 1961. Seasonally, the greatest increase in temperature and precipitation appears in <span class="hlt">winter</span> and in summer, respectively. Widespread significant changes in temperature-related <span class="hlt">extremes</span> are consistent with <span class="hlt">warming</span>, with decreases in cold <span class="hlt">extremes</span> and increases in <span class="hlt">warm</span> <span class="hlt">extremes</span>. The <span class="hlt">warming</span> of the coldest night is greater than that of the warmest day, and changes in cold and <span class="hlt">warm</span> nights are more evident than for cold and <span class="hlt">warm</span> days. <span class="hlt">Extreme</span> precipitation and wet days exhibit an increasing trend, and the maximum number of consecutive dry days shows a tendency toward shorter duration. Multi-model ensemble mean projections indicate an overall continual increase in temperature and precipitation during the 21st century. Decreases in cold <span class="hlt">extremes</span>, increases in <span class="hlt">warm</span> <span class="hlt">extremes</span>, intensification of <span class="hlt">extreme</span> precipitation, increases in wet days, and decreases in consecutive dry days, are expected under both emissions scenarios, with larger changes corresponding to stronger radiative forcing.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20110008075','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20110008075"><span>Titan's Emergence from <span class="hlt">Winter</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Flasar, F. Michael; Achterberg, Richard; Jennings, Donald; Schinder, Paul</p> <p>2011-01-01</p> <p>We summarize the changes in Titans thermal structure derived from Cassini CIRS and radio-occultation data during the transition from <span class="hlt">winter</span> to early spring. Titan's surface, and middle atmosphere show noticeable seasonal change, whereas that in most of the troposphere is mated. This can be understood in terms of the relatively small radiative relaxation time in the middle atmosphere and much larger time scale in the troposphere. The surface exhibits seasonal change because the heat capacity in an annual skin depth is much smaller than that in the lowest scale height of the troposphere. Surface temperatures rise 1 K at raid and high latitudes in the <span class="hlt">winter</span> northern hemisphere and cool in the southern hemisphere. Changes in in the middle atmosphere are more complicated. Temperatures in the middle stratosphere (approximately 1 mbar) increase by a few kelvin at mid northern latitudes, but those at high latitudes first increase as that region moves out of <span class="hlt">winter</span> shadow, and then decrease. This probably results from the combined effect of increased solar heating as the suit moves higher in the sky and the decreased adiabatic <span class="hlt">warming</span> as the sinking motions associated with the cross-equatorial meridional cell weaken. Consistent with this interpretation, the <span class="hlt">warm</span> temperatures observed higher up at the <span class="hlt">winter</span> polar stratopause cool significantly.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017EGUGA..19.7927H','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017EGUGA..19.7927H"><span>Severe European <span class="hlt">winters</span> in a secular perspective</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Hoy, Andreas; Hänsel, Stephanie</p> <p>2017-04-01</p> <p>Temperature conditions during the <span class="hlt">winter</span> time are substantially shaped by a strong year-to-year variability. European <span class="hlt">winters</span> since the late 1980s - compared to previous decades and centuries - were mainly characterised by a high temperature level, including recent record-<span class="hlt">warm</span> <span class="hlt">winters</span>. Yet, comparably cold <span class="hlt">winters</span> and severe cold spells still occur nowadays, like recently observed from 2009 to 2013 and in early 2017. Central England experienced its second coldest December since start of observations more than 350 years ago in 2010, and some of the lowest temperatures ever measured in northern Europe (below -50 °C in Lapland) were recorded in January 1999. Analysing thermal characteristics and spatial distribution of severe (historical) <span class="hlt">winters</span> - using early instrumental data - helps expanding and consolidating our knowledge of past weather <span class="hlt">extremes</span>. This contribution presents efforts towards this direction. We focus on a) compiling and assessing a very long-term instrumental, spatially widespread and well-distributed, high-quality meteorological data set to b) investigate very cold <span class="hlt">winter</span> temperatures in Europe from early measurements until today. In a first step, we analyse the longest available time series of monthly temperature averages within Europe. Our dataset extends from the Nordic countries up to the Mediterranean and from the British Isles up to Russia. We utilise as much as possible homogenised times series in order to ensure reliable results. Homogenised data derive from the NORDHOM (Scandinavia) and HISTALP (greater alpine region) datasets or were obtained from national weather services and universities. Other (not specifically homogenised) data were derived from the ECA&D dataset or national institutions. The employed time series often start already during the 18th century, with Paris & Central England being the longest datasets (from 1659). In a second step, daily temperature averages are involved. Only some of those series are homogenised, but</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014ERL.....9g1001W','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014ERL.....9g1001W"><span>A temporary hiatus in <span class="hlt">warming</span> of <span class="hlt">extreme</span> temperatures is not unusual, nor inconsistent with model simulations of human-induced climate change</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Wehner, Michael F.</p> <p>2014-07-01</p> <p>Sillman et al (2014) find that observed trends of <span class="hlt">extremely</span> hot days and cold nights are consistent with the current generation of climate models. Short periods of localized decreases in these <span class="hlt">extreme</span> temperatures are not unusual and the Sillman et al results increase confidence in projections of future changes in <span class="hlt">extreme</span> temperature.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013AGUFMGC43D1086K','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013AGUFMGC43D1086K"><span>How Much <span class="hlt">Winter</span> Stratospheric Polar-cap <span class="hlt">Warming</span> Is Explained By Upward-propagating Planetary Waves In CMIP5 Models?: Part 1. An Indirect Approach Using A Wave Interference Index</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Kim, J.; Kim, B.</p> <p>2013-12-01</p> <p>The breaking of upward-propagating planetary (typically characterized by the combination of zonal wave number 1 and 2) waves in the stratosphere is regarded as one of the factors that provoke the sudden stratospheric <span class="hlt">warming</span> (SSW) and the accompanying collapse of stratospheric polar vortex during <span class="hlt">winter</span>. It is also known that if the anomalous stationary wave pattern is in phase with that of the climatology during a certain period, this period is dynamically favorable for the upward propagation and amplification of planetary waves. This kind of phenomenon that amplitude of resultant wave increases by combining two or more waves in phase is called the constructive interference. Our research evaluates whether and to what degree the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models simulate such a relation between tropospheric wave interference and Northern polar stratosphere temperature anomaly during <span class="hlt">winter</span>. Here the 500-hPa wave interference index (WII500) is defined as the coefficient that is obtained by projecting the anomaly of wave number 1 and 2 components of 500-hPa geopotential height onto its climatology. Using monthly outputs of the CMIP5 historical runs currently available to us, we examine the lagged relationship (R-square) between the WII500 during November-December-January (NDJ) and the polar-cap temperature anomaly at 50 hPa (PCT50) during December-January-February (DJF) on an interannual timescale. By sampling uncertainty in R-squares of 33-yr samples (chosen fit with the modern reanalysis period, 1980-2012) with bootstrap resampling, we obtain the sampled medians for all models. The observed relations are then calculated using six reanalyses (ERA-40, ERA-Interim, JRA-25, MERRA, NCEP-R1, and NCEP-R2), and the 5-95% confidence interval of their observed R-square is obtained again with bootstrap resampling of all six reanalyses blended. Then we evaluate which CMIP5 model simulates the WII500-PCT50 relation within the probable range of</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3937729','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3937729"><span><span class="hlt">Extremely</span> rapid acclimation of Escherichia coli to high temperature over a few generations of a fed-batch culture during slow <span class="hlt">warming</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Guyot, Stéphane; Pottier, Laurence; Hartmann, Alain; Ragon, Mélanie; Hauck Tiburski, Julia; Molin, Paul; Ferret, Eric; Gervais, Patrick</p> <p>2014-01-01</p> <p>This study aimed to demonstrate that adequate slow heating rate allows two strains of Escherichia coli rapid acclimation to higher temperature than upper growth and survival limits known to be strain-dependent. A laboratory (K12-TG1) and an environmental (DPD3084) strain of E. coli were subjected to rapid (few seconds) or slow <span class="hlt">warming</span> (1°C 12 h−1) in order to (re)evaluate upper survival and growth limits. The slow <span class="hlt">warming</span> was applied from the ancestral temperature 37°C to total cell death 46–54°C: about 30 generations were propagated. Upper survival and growth limits for rapid <span class="hlt">warming</span> (46°C) were lower than for slow <span class="hlt">warming</span> (46–54°C). The thermal limit of survival for slow <span class="hlt">warming</span> was higher for DPD3084 (50–54°C). Further experiments conducted on DPD3084, showed that mechanisms involved in this type of thermotolerance were abolished by a following cooling step to 37°C, which allowed to imply reversible mechanisms as acclimation ones. Acquisition of acclimation mechanisms was related to physical properties of the plasma membrane but was not inhibited by unavoidable appearance of aggregated proteins. In conclusion, E.coli could be rapidly acclimated within few generations over thermal limits described in the literature. Such a study led us to propose that rapid acclimation may give supplementary time to the species to acquire a stable adaptation through a random mutation. PMID:24357618</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016ClDy...46.4027G','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016ClDy...46.4027G"><span><span class="hlt">Extreme</span> air-sea interaction over the North Atlantic subpolar gyre during the <span class="hlt">winter</span> of 2013-2014 and its sub-surface legacy</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Grist, Jeremy P.; Josey, Simon A.; Jacobs, Zoe L.; Marsh, Robert; Sinha, Bablu; Van Sebille, Erik</p> <p>2016-06-01</p> <p>Exceptionally low North American temperatures and record-breaking precipitation over the British Isles during <span class="hlt">winter</span> 2013-2014 were interconnected by anomalous ocean evaporation over the North Atlantic subpolar gyre region (SPG). This evaporation (or oceanic latent heat release) was accompanied by strong sensible heat loss to the atmosphere. The enhanced heat loss over the SPG was caused by a combination of surface westerly winds from the North American continent and northerly winds from the Nordic Seas region that were colder, drier and stronger than normal. A distinctive feature of the air-sea exchange was that the enhanced heat loss spanned the entire width of the SPG, with evaporation anomalies intensifying in the east while sensible heat flux anomalies were slightly stronger upstream in the west. The immediate impact of the strong air-sea fluxes on the ocean-atmosphere system included a reduction in ocean heat content of the SPG and a shift in basin-scale pathways of ocean heat and atmospheric freshwater transport. Atmospheric reanalysis data and the EN4 ocean data set indicate that a longer-term legacy of the <span class="hlt">winter</span> has been the enhanced formation of a particularly dense mode of Subpolar Mode Water (SPMW)—one of the precursors of North Atlantic Deep Water and thus an important component of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. Using particle trajectory analysis, the likely dispersal of newly-formed SPMW is evaluated, providing evidence for the re-emergence of anomalously cold SPMW in early <span class="hlt">winter</span> 2014/2015.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://eric.ed.gov/?q=wildflowers&pg=2&id=EJ256876','ERIC'); return false;" href="http://eric.ed.gov/?q=wildflowers&pg=2&id=EJ256876"><span><span class="hlt">Winter</span> Weeds.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.eric.ed.gov/ERICWebPortal/search/extended.jsp?_pageLabel=advanced">ERIC Educational Resources Information Center</a></p> <p>Lindberg, Lois</p> <p>1981-01-01</p> <p>Try to learn all you can about a plant in the <span class="hlt">winter</span>. As the season changes, you can see what the dried seed pod is like in bloom. You are a convert if you notice a spectacular show of summer wildflowers and wonder what sort of <span class="hlt">winter</span> weed will result. (Author/CM)</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2001JCli...14.1959B','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2001JCli...14.1959B"><span>Characteristics of Daily and <span class="hlt">Extreme</span> Temperatures over Canada.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Bonsal, B. R.; Zhang, X.; Vincent, L. A.; Hogg, W. D.</p> <p>2001-05-01</p> <p>Recent studies have shown that, since 1900, mean annual temperature over southern Canada has increased by an average of 0.9°C, with the largest <span class="hlt">warming</span> during <span class="hlt">winter</span> and early spring. Every season was associated with greater increases in minimum temperature as opposed to maximum, thus resulting in a significant decrease in the daily temperature range (DTR). The second half of the twentieth century was associated with significant <span class="hlt">winter</span> and spring <span class="hlt">warming</span> in the south and west, and cooling in the northeast. However, no significant changes in DTR were observed during this period. This investigation goes beyond the annual/seasonal scales by examining trends and variability in daily minimum and maximum temperature with particular emphasis on <span class="hlt">extremes</span>. Using recently updated, homogenized daily data, spatial and temporal characteristics of daily and <span class="hlt">extreme</span> temperature-related variables are analyzed on a seasonal basis for the periods of 1900-98 (southern Canada), and 1950-98 (the entire country). From 1900 to 1998, the majority of southern Canada shows significantly increasing trends to the lower and higher percentiles of the daily minimum and maximum temperature distribution. The findings translate into fewer days with <span class="hlt">extreme</span> low temperature during <span class="hlt">winter</span>, spring, and summer and more days with <span class="hlt">extreme</span> high temperature during <span class="hlt">winter</span> and spring. No consistent trends are found for the higher percentiles of summer daily maximum temperature, indicating little change to the number of <span class="hlt">extreme</span> hot summer days. Over the southwest, increases are larger to the left-hand side of the daily minimum and maximum temperature distribution, resulting in significant decreases to the intraseasonal standard deviation of daily temperature. The 1950-98 results are somewhat different from the entire century, especially, during <span class="hlt">winter</span> and spring. This result includes significant increases to the low and high percentiles over the west, and decreases over the east. This analysis reveals that</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013AGUFMGC21D0874G','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013AGUFMGC21D0874G"><span>Ongoing climatic <span class="hlt">extreme</span> dynamics in Siberia</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Gordov, E. P.; Shulgina, T. M.; Okladnikov, I. G.; Titov, A. G.</p> <p>2013-12-01</p> <p>Ongoing global climate changes accompanied by the restructuring of global processes in the atmosphere and biosphere are strongly pronounced in the Northern Eurasia regions, especially in Siberia. Recent investigations indicate not only large changes in averaged climatic characteristics (Kabanov and Lykosov, 2006, IPCC, 2007; Groisman and Gutman, 2012), but more frequent occurrence and stronger impacts of climatic <span class="hlt">extremes</span> are reported as well (Bulygina et al., 2007; IPCC, 2012: Climate <span class="hlt">Extremes</span>, 2012; Oldenborh et al., 2013). This paper provides the results of daily temperature and precipitation <span class="hlt">extreme</span> dynamics in Siberia for the last three decades (1979 - 2012). Their seasonal dynamics is assessed using 10th and 90th percentile-based threshold indices that characterize frequency, intensity and duration of climatic <span class="hlt">extremes</span>. To obtain the geographical pattern of these variations with high spatial resolution, the sub-daily temperature data from ECMWF ERA-Interim reanalysis and daily precipitation amounts from APHRODITE JMA dataset were used. All <span class="hlt">extreme</span> indices and linear trend coefficients have been calculated using web-GIS information-computational platform Climate (http://climate.scert.ru/) developed to support collaborative multidisciplinary investigations of regional climatic changes and their impacts (Gordov et al., 2012). Obtained results show that seasonal dynamics of daily temperature <span class="hlt">extremes</span> is asymmetric for tails of cold and <span class="hlt">warm</span> temperature <span class="hlt">extreme</span> distributions. Namely, the intensity of <span class="hlt">warming</span> during cold nights is higher than during <span class="hlt">warm</span> nights, especially at high latitudes of Siberia. The similar dynamics is observed for cold and <span class="hlt">warm</span> day-time temperatures. Slight summer cooling was observed in the central part of Siberia. It is associated with decrease in <span class="hlt">warm</span> temperature <span class="hlt">extremes</span>. In the southern Siberia in <span class="hlt">winter</span>, we also observe some cooling mostly due to strengthening of the cold temperature <span class="hlt">extremes</span>. Changes in daily precipitation <span class="hlt">extremes</span></p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22150424','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22150424"><span>Nutrition for <span class="hlt">winter</span> sports.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Meyer, Nanna L; Manore, Melinda M; Helle, Christine</p> <p>2011-01-01</p> <p><span class="hlt">Winter</span> sports are played in cold conditions on ice or snow and often at moderate to high altitude. The most important nutritional challenges for <span class="hlt">winter</span> sport athletes exposed to environmental <span class="hlt">extremes</span> include increased energy expenditure, accelerated muscle and liver glycogen utilization, exacerbated fluid loss, and increased iron turnover. <span class="hlt">Winter</span> sports, however, vary greatly regarding their nutritional requirements due to variable physiological and physique characteristics, energy and substrate demands, and environmental training and competition conditions. What most <span class="hlt">winter</span> sport athletes have in common is a relatively lean physique and high-intensity training periods, thus they require greater energy and nutrient intakes, along with adequate food and fluid before, during, and after training. Event fuelling is most challenging for cross-country skiers competing in long events, ski jumpers aiming to reduce their body weight, and those <span class="hlt">winter</span> sport athletes incurring repeated qualification rounds and heats. These athletes need to ensure carbohydrate availability throughout competition. Finally, <span class="hlt">winter</span> sport athletes may benefit from dietary and sport supplements; however, attention should be paid to safety and efficacy if supplementation is considered.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016EGUGA..1816504O','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016EGUGA..1816504O"><span>The role of convection permitting modeling to evaluate the contribution of the anthropogenic climate change on the UK <span class="hlt">Winter</span> 2013-2014 <span class="hlt">extreme</span> rain</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Omrani, Hiba; Vautard, Robert</p> <p>2016-04-01</p> <p>During the <span class="hlt">winter</span> 2013/2014, the UK saw heavy rainfalls associated with a succession of storms reaching Southern England causing widespread flooding, power cuts and major disruptions to transport. The January precipitation set a record for several rain gauge stations in Southern England. The aim of this study is to evaluate the contribution of the anthropogenic climate change, represented by a modification of the sea surface temperature (SST) on the January precipitation. For that, we conducted a sensitivity experiment by running a set of two-months simulations using WRF model with 50km horizontal resolution simulation and 2 km convection permitting simulation centered over the southern UK. We also investigated the sensitivity to the model physics. Results show that the horizontal resolution plays an important role for interpreting the results. Indeed, the low resolution simulation showed no robust signal to attribute this event. However, the convection permitting simulations gave more consistent results over the studied area.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013GeoRL..40.6208V','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013GeoRL..40.6208V"><span><span class="hlt">Extreme</span> Arctic cyclones in CMIP5 historical simulations</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Vavrus, Stephen J.</p> <p>2013-12-01</p> <p>attention is being paid to <span class="hlt">extreme</span> weather, including recent high-profile events involving very destructive cyclones. In summer 2012, a historically powerful cyclone traversed the Arctic, a region experiencing rapid <span class="hlt">warming</span> and dramatic loss of ice and snow cover. This study addresses whether such powerful storms are an emerging expression of anthropogenic climate change by investigating simulated <span class="hlt">extreme</span> Arctic cyclones during the historical period (1850-2005) among global climate models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) archive. These general circulation models are able to simulate <span class="hlt">extreme</span> pressures associated with strong polar storms without a significant dependence on model resolution. The models display realism by generating <span class="hlt">extreme</span> Arctic storms primarily around subpolar cyclone regions (Aleutian and Icelandic) and preferentially during <span class="hlt">winter</span>. Simulated secular trends in Arctic mean sea level pressure and <span class="hlt">extreme</span> cyclones are equivocal; both indicate increasing storminess in some regions, but the magnitude of changes to date are modest compared with future projections.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21265150','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21265150"><span>[Passive nighttime <span class="hlt">warming</span> (PNW) system, its design and <span class="hlt">warming</span> effect].</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Chen, Jin; Yang, Fei; Zhang, Bin; Tian, Yun-lu; Dong, Wen-jun; Zhang, Wei-jian</p> <p>2010-09-01</p> <p>Based on the technique of passive nighttime <span class="hlt">warming</span> (PNW), a convenient and energy-saving PNW facility was designed for a rice-wheat cropping system in Danyang, Jiangsu Province. The facility could guarantee 15.75 m2 effective sampling area, with a homogeneous amplitude of increased temperature, and making the nighttime canopy temperature during whole rice growth season increased averagely by 1.1 degrees C and the nighttime canopy temperature and 5 cm soil temperature during whole <span class="hlt">winter</span> wheat growth period increased averagely by 1.3 degrees C and 0.8 degrees C, respectively. During the operation period of the facility, the variation trends of the canopy temperature and 5 cm soil temperature during the whole growth periods of rice and <span class="hlt">winter</span> wheat in the <span class="hlt">warming</span> plots were similar to those of the control. Though the facility slightly decreased the soil moisture content during <span class="hlt">winter</span> wheat growth period, wheat growth was less impacted. The application of this facility in our main production areas of rice and <span class="hlt">winter</span> wheat showed that the facility could advance the initial blossoming stages of rice and <span class="hlt">winter</span> wheat averagely by 3 d and 5 d, respectively. In despite of the discrepancy in the <span class="hlt">warming</span> effect among different regions and seasons, this energy-saving facility was reliable for the field research on crop responses to climate <span class="hlt">warming</span>, when the homogeneity of increased temperature, the effective area, and the effects on crop growth period were taken into comprehensive consideration.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=5095811','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=5095811"><span>Recent amplification of the North American <span class="hlt">winter</span> temperature dipole</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Swain, Daniel L.; Mankin, Justin S.; Horton, Daniel E.; Thomas, Leif N.; Rajaratnam, Bala; Diffenbaugh, Noah S.</p> <p>2016-01-01</p> <p>Abstract During the <span class="hlt">winters</span> of 2013–2014 and 2014–2015, anomalously <span class="hlt">warm</span> temperatures in western North America and anomalously cool temperatures in eastern North America resulted in substantial human and environmental impacts. Motivated by the impacts of these concurrent temperature <span class="hlt">extremes</span> and the intrinsic atmospheric linkage between weather conditions in the western and eastern United States, we investigate the occurrence of concurrent “warm‐West/cool‐East” surface temperature anomalies, which we call the “North American <span class="hlt">winter</span> temperature dipole.” We find that, historically, warm‐West/cool‐East dipole conditions have been associated with anomalous mid‐tropospheric ridging over western North America and downstream troughing over eastern North America. We also find that the occurrence and severity of warm‐West/cool‐East events have increased significantly between 1980 and 2015, driven largely by an increase in the frequency with which high‐amplitude “ridge‐trough” wave patterns result in simultaneous severe temperature conditions in both the West and East. Using a large single‐model ensemble of climate simulations, we show that the observed positive trend in the warm‐West/cool‐East events is attributable to historical anthropogenic emissions including greenhouse gases, but that the co‐occurrence of <span class="hlt">extreme</span> western warmth and eastern cold will likely decrease in the future as <span class="hlt">winter</span> temperatures <span class="hlt">warm</span> dramatically across the continent, thereby reducing the occurrence of severely cold conditions in the East. Although our analysis is focused on one particular region, our analysis framework is generally transferable to the physical conditions shaping different types of <span class="hlt">extreme</span> events around the globe. PMID:27840780</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://eric.ed.gov/?q=Biological+AND+warfare&pg=2&id=EJ297264','ERIC'); return false;" href="http://eric.ed.gov/?q=Biological+AND+warfare&pg=2&id=EJ297264"><span>Nuclear <span class="hlt">Winter</span>.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.eric.ed.gov/ERICWebPortal/search/extended.jsp?_pageLabel=advanced">ERIC Educational Resources Information Center</a></p> <p>Ehrlich, Anne</p> <p>1984-01-01</p> <p>"Nuclear <span class="hlt">Winter</span>" was recently coined to describe the climatic and biological effects of a nuclear war. These effects are discussed based on models, simulations, scenarios, and projections. Effects on human populations are also considered. (JN)</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://eric.ed.gov/?q=nuclear+AND+winter&id=EJ297264','ERIC'); return false;" href="https://eric.ed.gov/?q=nuclear+AND+winter&id=EJ297264"><span>Nuclear <span class="hlt">Winter</span>.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.eric.ed.gov/ERICWebPortal/search/extended.jsp?_pageLabel=advanced">ERIC Educational Resources Information Center</a></p> <p>Ehrlich, Anne</p> <p>1984-01-01</p> <p>"Nuclear <span class="hlt">Winter</span>" was recently coined to describe the climatic and biological effects of a nuclear war. These effects are discussed based on models, simulations, scenarios, and projections. Effects on human populations are also considered. (JN)</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017EGUGA..19.4646F','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017EGUGA..19.4646F"><span>Understanding changes in short-duration heavy rainfall under global <span class="hlt">warming</span>: The GEWEX cross-cut on sub-daily rainfall <span class="hlt">extremes</span> (INTENSE)</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Fowler, Hayley; Kendon, Elizabeth; Chan, Steven; Barbero, Renaud; Blenkinsop, Stephen; Lenderink, Geert; Roberts, Nigel; Lewis, Elizabeth; Guerreiro, Selma; Li, Xiaofeng; Westra, Seth</p> <p>2017-04-01</p> <p>Rainfall <span class="hlt">extremes</span> appear to be changing around the world but there is little information on how <span class="hlt">extreme</span> short-duration events might change. This talk will present the aims and objectives of the GEWEX cross-cut on sub-daily rainfall <span class="hlt">extremes</span> (INTENSE)and work under an associated project. Discussion will be made of new results from 1.5km convection-permitting climate model climate change integrations over southern and northern UK domains, in particular in regard to intensity, precipitation-temperature scaling and duration changes. The construction of a global sub-daily precipitation dataset is underway and this will be presented as well as first results from analysis of trends and precipitation-temperature scaling from this dataset. This talk complements a session on sub-daily precipitation <span class="hlt">extremes</span>.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=2769945','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=2769945"><span>Increases in Whole Blood Glucose Measurements Using Optically Based Self-Monitoring of Blood Glucose Analyzers Due to <span class="hlt">Extreme</span> Canadian <span class="hlt">Winters</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Cembrowski, George C.; Smith, Barbara; O'Malley, Ellen M.</p> <p>2009-01-01</p> <p>Background Temperature and humidity have been reported to influence the results of whole blood glucose (WBG) measurements. Methods To determine whether patient WBG values were affected by seasonal variation, we conducted a retrospective analysis of 3 years' worth of weekly averages of patient WBG in five Edmonton hospitals. Results In all five hospitals, the <span class="hlt">winter</span> WBG averages were consistently higher than the summer WBG averages, with the differences varying between 5% and 9%. Whole blood glucose averages were negatively correlated with the outside temperature. This seasonal variation was not observed in weekly patient averages of specimens run in a central hospital laboratory. Interpretation It is probable that the seasonal variation of WBG arises from the very low indoor humidities that are associated with external subzero temperatures. These increases in WBG in cold weather may be due to limitations in the WBG measuring systems when operated in decreased humidities and/or increased evaporation of the blood sample during the blood glucose measurement process. The implications of this seasonal variation are significant in that it (1) introduces increased variability in patient WBG, (2) may result in increased glucose-lowering therapy during periods of external cold and low indoor humidity, and (3) confounds evaluations of WBG meter technology in geographic regions of subzero temperature and low indoor humidity. To mitigate the risk of diagnosing and treating factitious hyperglycemia, the humidity of patient care areas must be strictly controlled. PMID:20144309</p> </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_18");'>18</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_19");'>19</a></li> <li class="active"><span>20</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_21");'>21</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_22");'>22</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div><!-- col-sm-12 --> </div><!-- row --> </div><!-- page_20 --> <div id="page_21" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_19");'>19</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_20");'>20</a></li> <li class="active"><span>21</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_22");'>22</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_23");'>23</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="401"> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://eric.ed.gov/?q=global+AND+warming+AND+united+AND+states&id=EJ391198','ERIC'); return false;" href="http://eric.ed.gov/?q=global+AND+warming+AND+united+AND+states&id=EJ391198"><span>Global <span class="hlt">Warming</span>.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.eric.ed.gov/ERICWebPortal/search/extended.jsp?_pageLabel=advanced">ERIC Educational Resources Information Center</a></p> <p>Hileman, Bette</p> <p>1989-01-01</p> <p>States the foundations of the theory of global <span class="hlt">warming</span>. Describes methodologies used to measure the changes in the atmosphere. Discusses steps currently being taken in the United States and the world to slow the <span class="hlt">warming</span> trend. Recognizes many sources for the <span class="hlt">warming</span> and the possible effects on the earth. (MVL)</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://eric.ed.gov/?q=AIR+AND+POLLUTION+AND+Climate+AND+change&pg=4&id=EJ391198','ERIC'); return false;" href="https://eric.ed.gov/?q=AIR+AND+POLLUTION+AND+Climate+AND+change&pg=4&id=EJ391198"><span>Global <span class="hlt">Warming</span>.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.eric.ed.gov/ERICWebPortal/search/extended.jsp?_pageLabel=advanced">ERIC Educational Resources Information Center</a></p> <p>Hileman, Bette</p> <p>1989-01-01</p> <p>States the foundations of the theory of global <span class="hlt">warming</span>. Describes methodologies used to measure the changes in the atmosphere. Discusses steps currently being taken in the United States and the world to slow the <span class="hlt">warming</span> trend. Recognizes many sources for the <span class="hlt">warming</span> and the possible effects on the earth. (MVL)</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017NatCC...7..238Z','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017NatCC...7..238Z"><span>Atmospheric science: <span class="hlt">Warming</span> boosts air pollution</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Zhang, Renhe</p> <p>2017-03-01</p> <p>Atmospheric conditions play an important role in driving severe air pollution events in Beijing, China. Now research finds that global <span class="hlt">warming</span> will enhance weather conditions favouring such events, increasing the chances of severe <span class="hlt">winter</span>-time haze in the future.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017ERL....12i4006R','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017ERL....12i4006R"><span><span class="hlt">Extreme</span> cyclone events in the Arctic: Wintertime variability and trends</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Rinke, A.; Maturilli, M.; Graham, R. M.; Matthes, H.; Handorf, D.; Cohen, L.; Hudson, S. R.; Moore, J. C.</p> <p>2017-09-01</p> <p>Typically 20-40 <span class="hlt">extreme</span> cyclone events (sometimes called ‘weather bombs’) occur in the Arctic North Atlantic per <span class="hlt">winter</span> season, with an increasing trend of 6 events/decade over 1979-2015, according to 6 hourly station data from Ny-Ålesund. This increased frequency of <span class="hlt">extreme</span> cyclones is consistent with observed significant <span class="hlt">winter</span> <span class="hlt">warming</span>, indicating that the meridional heat and moisture transport they bring is a factor in rising temperatures in the region. The <span class="hlt">winter</span> trend in <span class="hlt">extreme</span> cyclones is dominated by a positive monthly trend of about 3-4 events/decade in November-December, due mainly to an increasing persistence of <span class="hlt">extreme</span> cyclone events. A negative trend in January opposes this, while there is no significant trend in February. We relate the regional patterns of the trend in <span class="hlt">extreme</span> cyclones to anomalously low sea-ice conditions in recent years, together with associated large-scale atmospheric circulation changes such as ‘blockinglike’ circulation patterns (e.g. Scandinavian blocking in December and Ural blocking during January-February).</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/scitech/biblio/46040','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/scitech/biblio/46040"><span>Global <span class="hlt">warming</span> elucidated</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech">SciTech Connect</a></p> <p>Shen, S.</p> <p>1995-03-01</p> <p>The meaning of global <span class="hlt">warming</span> and its relevance to everyday life is explained. Simple thermodynamics is used to predict an oscillatory nature of the change in climate due to global <span class="hlt">warming</span>. Global <span class="hlt">warming</span> causes <span class="hlt">extreme</span> events and bad weather in the near term. In the long term it may cause the earth to transition to another equilibrium state through many oscillation in climatic patterns. The magnitudes of these oscillations could easily exceed the difference between the end points. The author further explains why many no longer fully understands the nature and magnitudes of common phenomena such as storms and wind speeds because of these oscillations, and the absorptive properties of clouds. The author links the increase in duration of the El Nino to global <span class="hlt">warming</span>, and further predicts public health risks as the earth transitions to another equilibrium state in its young history.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017JGRD..122.2269H','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017JGRD..122.2269H"><span>Can climate-effective land management reduce regional <span class="hlt">warming</span>?</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Hirsch, A. L.; Wilhelm, M.; Davin, E. L.; Thiery, W.; Seneviratne, S. I.</p> <p>2017-02-01</p> <p>Limiting global <span class="hlt">warming</span> to well below 2°C is an imminent challenge for humanity. However, even if this global target can be met, some regions are still likely to experience substantial <span class="hlt">warming</span> relative to others. Using idealized global climate simulations, we examine the potential of land management options in affecting regional climate, with a focus on crop albedo enhancement and irrigation (climate-effective land management). The implementation is performed over all crop regions globally to provide an upper bound. We find that the implementation of both crop albedo enhancement and irrigation can reduce hot temperature <span class="hlt">extremes</span> by more than 2°C in North America, Eurasia, and India over the 21st century relative to a scenario without management application. The efficacy of crop albedo enhancement scales with the magnitude, where a cooling response exceeding 0.5°C for hot temperature <span class="hlt">extremes</span> was achieved with a large (i.e., ≥0.08) change in crop albedo. Regional differences were attributed to the surface energy balance response with temperature changes mostly explained by latent heat flux changes for irrigation and net shortwave radiation changes for crop albedo enhancement. However, limitations do exist, where we identify <span class="hlt">warming</span> over the <span class="hlt">winter</span> months when climate-effective land management is temporarily suspended. This was associated with persistent cloud cover that enhances longwave <span class="hlt">warming</span>. It cannot be confirmed if the magnitude of this feedback is reproducible in other climate models. Our results overall demonstrate that regional <span class="hlt">warming</span> of hot <span class="hlt">extremes</span> in our climate model can be partially mitigated when using an idealized treatment of climate-effective land management.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014ERL.....9c4006V','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014ERL.....9c4006V"><span>The European climate under a 2 °C global <span class="hlt">warming</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Vautard, Robert; Gobiet, Andreas; Sobolowski, Stefan; Kjellström, Erik; Stegehuis, Annemiek; Watkiss, Paul; Mendlik, Thomas; Landgren, Oskar; Nikulin, Grigory; Teichmann, Claas; Jacob, Daniela</p> <p>2014-03-01</p> <p>A global <span class="hlt">warming</span> of 2 °C relative to pre-industrial climate has been considered as a threshold which society should endeavor to remain below, in order to limit the dangerous effects of anthropogenic climate change. The possible changes in regional climate under this target level of global <span class="hlt">warming</span> have so far not been investigated in detail. Using an ensemble of 15 regional climate simulations downscaling six transient global climate simulations, we identify the respective time periods corresponding to 2 °C global <span class="hlt">warming</span>, describe the range of projected changes for the European climate for this level of global <span class="hlt">warming</span>, and investigate the uncertainty across the multi-model ensemble. Robust changes in mean and <span class="hlt">extreme</span> temperature, precipitation, winds and surface energy budgets are found based on the ensemble of simulations. The results indicate that most of Europe will experience higher <span class="hlt">warming</span> than the global average. They also reveal strong distributional patterns across Europe, which will be important in subsequent impact assessments and adaptation responses in different countries and regions. For instance, a North-South (West-East) <span class="hlt">warming</span> gradient is found for summer (<span class="hlt">winter</span>) along with a general increase in heavy precipitation and summer <span class="hlt">extreme</span> temperatures. Tying the ensemble analysis to time periods with a prescribed global temperature change rather than fixed time periods allows for the identification of more robust regional patterns of temperature changes due to removal of some of the uncertainty related to the global models’ climate sensitivity.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016ThApC.tmp..141W','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016ThApC.tmp..141W"><span>Trends in temperature <span class="hlt">extremes</span> over nine integrated agricultural regions in China, 1961-2011</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Wu, Xushu; Wang, Zhaoli; Zhou, Xiaowen; Lai, Chengguang; Chen, Xiaohong</p> <p>2016-06-01</p> <p>By characterizing the patterns of temperature <span class="hlt">extremes</span> over nine integrated agricultural regions (IARs) in China from 1961 to 2011, this study performed trend analyses on 16 <span class="hlt">extreme</span> temperature indices using a high-resolution (0.5° × 0.5°) daily gridded dataset and the Mann-Kendall method. The results show that annually, at both daytime and nighttime, cold <span class="hlt">extremes</span> significantly decreased but <span class="hlt">warm</span> <span class="hlt">extremes</span> significantly increased across all IARs. Overall, nighttimes tended to <span class="hlt">warm</span> faster than daytimes. Diurnal temperature ranges (DTR) diminished, apart from the mid-northern Southwest China Region and the mid-Loess Plateau Region. Seasonally, DTR widely diminished across all IARs during the four seasons except for spring. Higher minimum daily minimum temperature (TNn) and maximum daily maximum temperature (TXx), in both summer and <span class="hlt">winter</span>, were recorded for most IARs except for the Huang-Huai-Hai Region; in autumn, all IARs generally encountered higher TNn and TXx. In all seasons, <span class="hlt">warming</span> was observed at daytime and nighttime but, again, nighttimes <span class="hlt">warmed</span> faster than daytimes. The results also indicate a more rapid <span class="hlt">warming</span> trend in Northern and Western China than in Southern and Eastern China, with accelerated <span class="hlt">warming</span> at high elevations. The increases in TNn and TXx might cause a reduction in agriculture yield in spring over Northern China, while such negative impact might occur in Southern China during summer. In autumn and <span class="hlt">winter</span>, however, the negative impact possibly occurred in most of the IARs. Moreover, increased TXx in the Pearl River Delta and Yangtze River Delta is possibly related to rapid local urbanization. Climatically, the general increase in temperature <span class="hlt">extremes</span> across Chinese IARs may be induced by strengthened Northern Hemisphere Subtropical High or weakened Northern Hemisphere Polar Vortex.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017ThApC.129.1279W','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017ThApC.129.1279W"><span>Trends in temperature <span class="hlt">extremes</span> over nine integrated agricultural regions in China, 1961-2011</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Wu, Xushu; Wang, Zhaoli; Zhou, Xiaowen; Lai, Chengguang; Chen, Xiaohong</p> <p>2017-08-01</p> <p>By characterizing the patterns of temperature <span class="hlt">extremes</span> over nine integrated agricultural regions (IARs) in China from 1961 to 2011, this study performed trend analyses on 16 <span class="hlt">extreme</span> temperature indices using a high-resolution (0.5° × 0.5°) daily gridded dataset and the Mann-Kendall method. The results show that annually, at both daytime and nighttime, cold <span class="hlt">extremes</span> significantly decreased but <span class="hlt">warm</span> <span class="hlt">extremes</span> significantly increased across all IARs. Overall, nighttimes tended to <span class="hlt">warm</span> faster than daytimes. Diurnal temperature ranges (DTR) diminished, apart from the mid-northern Southwest China Region and the mid-Loess Plateau Region. Seasonally, DTR widely diminished across all IARs during the four seasons except for spring. Higher minimum daily minimum temperature (TNn) and maximum daily maximum temperature (TXx), in both summer and <span class="hlt">winter</span>, were recorded for most IARs except for the Huang-Huai-Hai Region; in autumn, all IARs generally encountered higher TNn and TXx. In all seasons, <span class="hlt">warming</span> was observed at daytime and nighttime but, again, nighttimes <span class="hlt">warmed</span> faster than daytimes. The results also indicate a more rapid <span class="hlt">warming</span> trend in Northern and Western China than in Southern and Eastern China, with accelerated <span class="hlt">warming</span> at high elevations. The increases in TNn and TXx might cause a reduction in agriculture yield in spring over Northern China, while such negative impact might occur in Southern China during summer. In autumn and <span class="hlt">winter</span>, however, the negative impact possibly occurred in most of the IARs. Moreover, increased TXx in the Pearl River Delta and Yangtze River Delta is possibly related to rapid local urbanization. Climatically, the general increase in temperature <span class="hlt">extremes</span> across Chinese IARs may be induced by strengthened Northern Hemisphere Subtropical High or weakened Northern Hemisphere Polar Vortex.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27069614','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27069614"><span>The seesaw effect of <span class="hlt">winter</span> temperature change on the recruitment of cotton bollworms Helicoverpa armigera through mismatched phenology.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Reddy, Gadi V P; Shi, Peijian; Hui, Cang; Cheng, Xiaofei; Ouyang, Fang; Ge, Feng</p> <p>2015-12-01</p> <p>Knowing how climate change affects the population dynamics of insect pests is critical for the future of integrated pest management. Rising <span class="hlt">winter</span> temperatures from global <span class="hlt">warming</span> can drive increases in outbreaks of some agricultural pests. In contrast, here we propose an alternative hypothesis that both <span class="hlt">extremely</span> cold and <span class="hlt">warm</span> <span class="hlt">winters</span> can mismatch the timing between the eclosion of overwintering pests and the flowering of key host plants. As host plants normally need higher effective cumulative temperatures for flowering than insects need for eclosion, changes in flowering time will be less dramatic than changes in eclosion time, leading to a mismatch of phenology on either side of the optimal <span class="hlt">winter</span> temperature. We term this the "seesaw effect." Using a long-term dataset of the Old World cotton bollworm Helicoverpa armigera (Hübner) (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) in northern China, we tested this seesaw hypothesis by running a generalized additive model for the effects of the third generation moth in the preceding year, the <span class="hlt">winter</span> air temperature, the number of <span class="hlt">winter</span> days below a critical temperature and cumulative precipitation during <span class="hlt">winter</span> on the demography of the overwintering moth. Results confirmed the existence of the seesaw effect of <span class="hlt">winter</span> temperature change on overwintering populations. Pest management should therefore consider the indirect effect of changing crop phenology (whether due to greenhouse cultivation or to climate change) on pest outbreaks. As arthropods from mid- and high latitudes are actually living in a cooler thermal environment than their physiological optimum in contrast to species from lower latitudes, the effects of rising <span class="hlt">winter</span> temperatures on the population dynamics of arthropods in the different latitudinal zones should be considered separately. The seesaw effect makes it more difficult to predict the average long-term population dynamics of insect pests at high latitudes due to the potential sharp changes in annual growth rates</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://eric.ed.gov/?q=Battleships&pg=2&id=ED242456','ERIC'); return false;" href="http://eric.ed.gov/?q=Battleships&pg=2&id=ED242456"><span><span class="hlt">Winter</span> Workshop.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.eric.ed.gov/ERICWebPortal/search/extended.jsp?_pageLabel=advanced">ERIC Educational Resources Information Center</a></p> <p>Council of Outdoor Educators of Quebec, Montreal.</p> <p></p> <p>Materials on 11 topics presented at a <span class="hlt">winter</span> workshop for Quebec outdoor educators have been compiled into this booklet. Action story, instant replay, shoe factory, sound and action, and find an object to fit the description are described and recommended as group dynamic activities. Directions for five games (Superlative Selection; Data…</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://eric.ed.gov/?q=Forward+AND+head&pg=6&id=ED167311','ERIC'); return false;" href="https://eric.ed.gov/?q=Forward+AND+head&pg=6&id=ED167311"><span><span class="hlt">Winter</span> Games.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.eric.ed.gov/ERICWebPortal/search/extended.jsp?_pageLabel=advanced">ERIC Educational Resources Information Center</a></p> <p>Tarbuth, Lawson, Comp.</p> <p></p> <p>Educators may find activities for indoor and outdoor <span class="hlt">winter</span> programs in the games of the traditional Eskimo. These games are dominated by few-step operations and low level structural organization. For the most part they are quickly organized, begun, terminated, and ready to be recommenced. All types of games can be found, including quiet ones,…</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://eric.ed.gov/?q=sky&pg=7&id=EJ987761','ERIC'); return false;" href="http://eric.ed.gov/?q=sky&pg=7&id=EJ987761"><span><span class="hlt">Winter</span> Wonderlands</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.eric.ed.gov/ERICWebPortal/search/extended.jsp?_pageLabel=advanced">ERIC Educational Resources Information Center</a></p> <p>Coy, Mary</p> <p>2011-01-01</p> <p>Listening to people complain about the hardships of <span class="hlt">winter</span> and the dreariness of the nearly constant gray sky prompted the author to help her sixth graders recognize and appreciate the beauty that surrounds them for nearly five months of the year in western New York. The author opines that if students could see things more artistically, the winter…</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://eric.ed.gov/?q=stomach&pg=7&id=ED167311','ERIC'); return false;" href="http://eric.ed.gov/?q=stomach&pg=7&id=ED167311"><span><span class="hlt">Winter</span> Games.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.eric.ed.gov/ERICWebPortal/search/extended.jsp?_pageLabel=advanced">ERIC Educational Resources Information Center</a></p> <p>Tarbuth, Lawson, Comp.</p> <p></p> <p>Educators may find activities for indoor and outdoor <span class="hlt">winter</span> programs in the games of the traditional Eskimo. These games are dominated by few-step operations and low level structural organization. For the most part they are quickly organized, begun, terminated, and ready to be recommenced. All types of games can be found, including quiet ones,…</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19880065060&hterms=volcanic+eruptions+extinctions&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D10%26Ntt%3Dvolcanic%2Beruptions%2Bextinctions','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19880065060&hterms=volcanic+eruptions+extinctions&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D10%26Ntt%3Dvolcanic%2Beruptions%2Bextinctions"><span>Volcanic <span class="hlt">winters</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Rampino, Michael R.; Self, Stephen; Stothers, Richard B.</p> <p>1988-01-01</p> <p>The impact of volcanic eruptions on weather and climate is considered. The data from nineteenth-century eruptions is examined, showing the importance of sulfur volatiles for climate change. Information obtained from ice cores is discussed, and the contrasts between the eruptions of Mt. St. Helens and El Chichon are pointed out. The atmospheric effects of the greatest historic eruptions are recalled. The potential for the occurrence of 'volcanic <span class="hlt">winters</span>' and the possible role of volcanism in mass extinctions are considered.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=20090009324&hterms=subsidence&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D60%26Ntt%3Dsubsidence','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=20090009324&hterms=subsidence&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D60%26Ntt%3Dsubsidence"><span>Titan's <span class="hlt">Winter</span> Polar Vortex</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Flasar, F.M.; Achterberg, R.K.; Schinder, P.J.</p> <p>2008-01-01</p> <p>Titan's atmosphere has provided an interesting study in contrasts and similarities with Earth's. While both have N$_2$ as the dominant constituent and comparable surface pressures $\\sim1$ bar, Titan's next most abundant molecule is CH$_4$, not O$_2$, and the dissociative breakup of CH$_4$ and N$_2$ by sunlight and electron impact leads to a suite of hydrocarbons and nitriles, and ultimately the photochemical smog that enshrouds the moon. In addition, with a 15.95-day period, Titan is a slow rotator compared to Earth. While the mean zonal terrestrial winds are geostrophic, Titan's are mostly cyclostrophic, whipping around the moon in as little as 1 day. Despite the different dynamical regime, Titan's <span class="hlt">winter</span> stratosphere exhibits several characteristics that should be familiar to terrestrial meteorologists. The cold <span class="hlt">winter</span> pole near the 1 -mbar level is circumscribed by strong winds (up to 190 m/s) that act as a barrier to mixing with airmasses at lower latitudes. There is evidence of enhancement of several organic species over the <span class="hlt">winter</span> pole, indicating subsidence. The adiabatic heating associated with this subsidence gives rise to a <span class="hlt">warm</span> anomaly at the 0.01-mbar level, raising the stratopause two scale heights above its location at equatorial latitudes. Condensate ices have been detected in Titan's lower stratosphere within the <span class="hlt">winter</span> polar vortex from infrared spectra. Although not always unambiguously identified, their spatial distribution exhibits a sharp gradient, decreasing precipitously across the vortex away from the <span class="hlt">winter</span> pole. The interesting question of whether there is important heterogeneous chemistry occurring within the polar vortex, analogous to that occurring in the terrestrial polar stratospheric clouds in the ozone holes, has not been addressed. The breakup of Titan's <span class="hlt">winter</span> polar vortex has not yet been observed. On Earth, the polar vortex is nonlinearly disrupted by interaction with large-amplitude planetary waves. Large-scale waves have not</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010EGUGA..12.9535J','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010EGUGA..12.9535J"><span>Effects of <span class="hlt">extreme</span> spring temperatures on phenology: a case study from Munich and Ingolstadt</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Jochner, Susanne; Menzel, Annette</p> <p>2010-05-01</p> <p><span class="hlt">Extreme</span> events - e.g. <span class="hlt">warm</span> spells or heavy precipitation events - are likely to increase in the future both in frequency and intensity. Therefore, research on <span class="hlt">extreme</span> events gains new importance; also in terms of plant development which is mostly triggered by temperatures. An arising question is how plants respond to an <span class="hlt">extreme</span> <span class="hlt">warm</span> spell when following an <span class="hlt">extreme</span> cold <span class="hlt">winter</span> season. This situation could be studied in spring 2009 in the greater area of Munich and Ingolstadt by phenological observations of flowering and leaf unfolding of birch (Betula pendula L.) and flowering of horse chestnut (Aesculus hippocastanum L.). The long chilling period of <span class="hlt">winter</span> 2008 and spring 2009 was followed by an immediate strong forcing of flowering and leaf unfolding, especially for birch. This <span class="hlt">extreme</span> weather situation diminished the difference between urban and rural dates of onset. Another important fact that could be observed in the proceeding period of December 2008 to April 2009 was the reduced temperature difference among urban and rural sites (urban heat island effect). Long-term observations (1951-2008) of the phenological network of the German Meteorological Service (DWD) were used to identify years with reduced urban-rural differences between onset times in the greater area of Munich in the past. Statistical analyses were conducted in order to answer the question whether the sequence of <span class="hlt">extreme</span> <span class="hlt">warm</span> and cold events leads to a decreased difference in phenological onset times or if this behaviour can be attributed to <span class="hlt">extreme</span> <span class="hlt">warm</span> springs themselves or to the decreased urban heat island effect which is mostly affected by general atmospheric circulation patterns.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/scitech/biblio/22351521','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/scitech/biblio/22351521"><span>The state of the <span class="hlt">warm</span> and cold gas in the <span class="hlt">extreme</span> starburst at the core of the Phoenix galaxy cluster (SPT-CLJ2344-4243)</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech">SciTech Connect</a></p> <p>McDonald, Michael; Bautz, Marshall W.; Swinbank, Mark; Edge, Alastair C.; Hogan, Michael T.; Wilner, David J.; Bayliss, Matthew B.; Veilleux, Sylvain; Benson, Bradford A.; Marrone, Daniel P.; McNamara, Brian R.; Wei, Lisa H.</p> <p>2014-03-20</p> <p>We present new optical integral field spectroscopy (Gemini South) and submillimeter spectroscopy (Submillimeter Array) of the central galaxy in the Phoenix cluster (SPT-CLJ2344-4243). This cluster was previously reported to have a massive starburst (∼800 M {sub ☉} yr{sup –1}) in the central, brightest cluster galaxy, most likely fueled by the rapidly cooling intracluster medium. These new data reveal a complex emission-line nebula, extending for >30 kpc from the central galaxy, detected at [O II]λλ3726, 3729, [O III]λλ4959, 5007, Hβ, Hγ, Hδ, [Ne III]λ3869, and He II λ4686. The total Hα luminosity, assuming Hα/Hβ = 2.85, is L {sub Hα} = 7.6 ± 0.4 ×10{sup 43} erg s{sup –1}, making this the most luminous emission-line nebula detected in the center of a cool core cluster. Overall, the relative fluxes of the low-ionization lines (e.g., [O II], Hβ) to the UV continuum are consistent with photoionization by young stars. In both the center of the galaxy and in a newly discovered highly ionized plume to the north of the galaxy, the ionization ratios are consistent with both shocks and active galactic nucleus (AGN) photoionization. We speculate that this extended plume may be a galactic wind, driven and partially photoionized by both the starburst and central AGN. Throughout the cluster we measure elevated high-ionization line ratios (e.g., He II/Hβ, [O III]/Hβ), coupled with an overall high-velocity width (FWHM ≳ 500 km s{sup –1}), suggesting that shocks are likely important throughout the interstellar medium of the central galaxy. These shocks are most likely driven by a combination of stellar winds from massive young stars, core-collapse supernovae, and the central AGN. In addition to the <span class="hlt">warm</span>, ionized gas, we detect a substantial amount of cold, molecular gas via the CO(3-2) transition, coincident in position with the galaxy center. We infer a molecular gas mass of M{sub H{sub 2}} = 2.2 ± 0.6 × 10{sup 10} M {sub ☉}, which implies that</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014ApJ...784...18M','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014ApJ...784...18M"><span>The State of the <span class="hlt">Warm</span> and Cold Gas in the <span class="hlt">Extreme</span> Starburst at the Core of the Phoenix Galaxy Cluster (SPT-CLJ2344-4243)</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>McDonald, Michael; Swinbank, Mark; Edge, Alastair C.; Wilner, David J.; Veilleux, Sylvain; Benson, Bradford A.; Hogan, Michael T.; Marrone, Daniel P.; McNamara, Brian R.; Wei, Lisa H.; Bayliss, Matthew B.; Bautz, Marshall W.</p> <p>2014-03-01</p> <p>We present new optical integral field spectroscopy (Gemini South) and submillimeter spectroscopy (Submillimeter Array) of the central galaxy in the Phoenix cluster (SPT-CLJ2344-4243). This cluster was previously reported to have a massive starburst (~800 M ⊙ yr-1) in the central, brightest cluster galaxy, most likely fueled by the rapidly cooling intracluster medium. These new data reveal a complex emission-line nebula, extending for >30 kpc from the central galaxy, detected at [O II]λλ3726, 3729, [O III]λλ4959, 5007, Hβ, Hγ, Hδ, [Ne III]λ3869, and He II λ4686. The total Hα luminosity, assuming Hα/Hβ = 2.85, is L Hα = 7.6 ± 0.4 ×1043 erg s-1, making this the most luminous emission-line nebula detected in the center of a cool core cluster. Overall, the relative fluxes of the low-ionization lines (e.g., [O II], Hβ) to the UV continuum are consistent with photoionization by young stars. In both the center of the galaxy and in a newly discovered highly ionized plume to the north of the galaxy, the ionization ratios are consistent with both shocks and active galactic nucleus (AGN) photoionization. We speculate that this extended plume may be a galactic wind, driven and partially photoionized by both the starburst and central AGN. Throughout the cluster we measure elevated high-ionization line ratios (e.g., He II/Hβ, [O III]/Hβ), coupled with an overall high-velocity width (FWHM gsim 500 km s-1), suggesting that shocks are likely important throughout the interstellar medium of the central galaxy. These shocks are most likely driven by a combination of stellar winds from massive young stars, core-collapse supernovae, and the central AGN. In addition to the <span class="hlt">warm</span>, ionized gas, we detect a substantial amount of cold, molecular gas via the CO(3-2) transition, coincident in position with the galaxy center. We infer a molecular gas mass of M_{H_2} = 2.2 ± 0.6 × 1010 M ⊙, which implies that the starburst will consume its fuel in ~30 Myr if it is not</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016ERL....11d4009K','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016ERL....11d4009K"><span>Physical characteristics of Eurasian <span class="hlt">winter</span> temperature variability</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Kim, Kwang-Yul; Son, Seok-Woo</p> <p>2016-04-01</p> <p>Despite the on-going global <span class="hlt">warming</span>, recent <span class="hlt">winters</span> in Eurasian mid-latitudes were much colder than average. In an attempt to better understand the physical characteristics for cold Eurasian <span class="hlt">winters</span>, major sources of variability in surface air temperature (SAT) are investigated based on cyclostationary EOF analysis. The two leading modes of SAT variability represent the effect of Arctic amplification (AA) and the Arctic oscillation (AO), respectively. These two modes are distinct in terms of the physical characteristics, including surface energy fluxes and tropospheric circulations, and result in significantly different <span class="hlt">winter</span> SAT patterns over the Eurasian continent. The AA-related SAT anomalies are dipolar with <span class="hlt">warm</span> Arctic, centered at the Barents-Kara Seas, and cold East Asia. In contrast, the negative AO-related SAT anomalies are characterized by widespread cold anomalies in Northern Eurasia. Relative importance of the AA and the negative AO contributions to cold Eurasian <span class="hlt">winters</span> is sensitive to the region of interest.</p> </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_19");'>19</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_20");'>20</a></li> <li class="active"><span>21</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_22");'>22</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_23");'>23</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div><!-- col-sm-12 --> </div><!-- row --> </div><!-- page_21 --> <div id="page_22" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_20");'>20</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_21");'>21</a></li> <li class="active"><span>22</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_23");'>23</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_24");'>24</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="421"> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013AGUFMPP23B1967J','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013AGUFMPP23B1967J"><span>Characterizing the Response of Fluvial Systems to <span class="hlt">Extreme</span> Global <span class="hlt">Warming</span> During the Early Eocene Climatic Optimum: An Analysis of the Wasatch and Green River Formations, Uinta Basin, UT</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Jones, E. R.; Plink-Bjorklund, P.</p> <p>2013-12-01</p> <p>The Wasatch and Green River Formations in the Uinta Basin, UT contain fluvial sandstones that record changes in terrestrial sedimentation coincident with Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) and at least six post-PETM hyperthermal climate change events. While proxies for chemical weathering rates during the PETM have been developed using the marine osmium isotope record, to date there has been little research on chemical weathering rates in proximal terrestrial depocenters. This work is one part of a multi-proxy research effort combining quantitative petrographic analysis, the stable carbon isotope record, and a high-resolution stratigraphic and sedimentologic framework across the southern margin of the Uinta Basin. Relative tectonic quiescence in the Uinta Basin during the Early Eocene suggests that climate is the forcing mechanism controlling fluvial architecture and composition, and gradual basin subsidence has preserved at least six pulses of greenhouse climate change during the Early Eocene Climatic Optimum (EECO). Terrestrial records of PETM climate do not support a humid climate with increased precipitation as previously suggested from marine proxies of climate change. Instead, terrestrial records of the PETM climate show evidence of prolonged drought punctuated by intense terrestrial flooding events in mid-latitude continental interiors. Increases in chemical weathering rates during the PETM due to increased temperature and average precipitation is cited as a key carbon sink to initiate a recovery phase where atmospheric CO2 returned to normal concentrations. If terrestrial records of chemical weathering rates differ substantially from marine proxies the carbon-cycle dynamics active during the EECO must be reconsidered. Initial results of this study show that these peak hyperthermal climate change conditions in the Uinta Basin preserve more compositionally and texturally immature sediments due to <span class="hlt">extremely</span> high erosion and deposition rates, and subdued</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26312211','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26312211"><span>Precipitation <span class="hlt">Extremes</span> Under Climate Change.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>O'Gorman, Paul A</p> <p></p> <p>The response of precipitation <span class="hlt">extremes</span> to climate change is considered using results from theory, modeling, and observations, with a focus on the physical factors that control the response. Observations and simulations with climate models show that precipitation <span class="hlt">extremes</span> intensify in response to a <span class="hlt">warming</span> climate. However, the sensitivity of precipitation <span class="hlt">extremes</span> to <span class="hlt">warming</span> remains uncertain when convection is important, and it may be higher in the tropics than the extratropics. Several physical contributions govern the response of precipitation <span class="hlt">extremes</span>. The thermodynamic contribution is robust and well understood, but theoretical understanding of the microphysical and dynamical contributions is still being developed. Orographic precipitation <span class="hlt">extremes</span> and snowfall <span class="hlt">extremes</span> respond differently from other precipitation <span class="hlt">extremes</span> and require particular attention. Outstanding research challenges include the influence of mesoscale convective organization, the dependence on the duration considered, and the need to better constrain the sensitivity of tropical precipitation <span class="hlt">extremes</span> to <span class="hlt">warming</span>.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014AGUFM.A31M..01C','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014AGUFM.A31M..01C"><span>The Relationship Between Recent Arctic Amplification and <span class="hlt">Extreme</span> Mid-Latitude Weather</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Cohen, J. L.; Screen, J.; Furtado, J. C.; Barlow, M. A.; Whittleston, D. P.; Coumou, D.; Francis, J. A.; Dethloff, K.; Entekhabi, D.; Overland, J. E.</p> <p>2014-12-01</p> <p>The Arctic has <span class="hlt">warmed</span> more than twice as fast as the global average and is refereed to as Arctic amplification. The rapid Arctic <span class="hlt">warming</span> has contributed to dramatic melting of Arctic sea ice and spring snow cover, at a pace greater than simulated by the climate models. These profound changes to the Arctic system have coincided with a period of ostensibly more frequent events of <span class="hlt">extreme</span> weather across the Northern Hemisphere (NH) mid-latitudes, including recent severe <span class="hlt">winters</span>. The possible link between Arctic change and mid-latitude weather can be broadly grouped under three potential dynamical mechanisms—changes in: storm tracks, the jet stream and planetary-waves and their associated energy propagation. I will discuss how less sea ice and increase snow cover separately can force more severe <span class="hlt">winter</span> weather across the NH continents. I will conclude with a new idea for how it is possible for sea ice and snow cover to jointly influence mid-latitude weather.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017APJAS..53...51K','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017APJAS..53...51K"><span>Multiple aspects of northern hemispheric wintertime cold <span class="hlt">extremes</span> as revealed by Markov chain analysis</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Kim, Hye-Sil; Choi, Yong-Sang; Kim, Joo-Hong; Kim, WonMoo</p> <p>2017-02-01</p> <p>High-impact cold <span class="hlt">extremes</span> have continued to bring devastating socioeconomic losses in recent years. In order to explain the exposure to cold <span class="hlt">extremes</span> more comprehensively, this study investigates multiple aspects of boreal <span class=