Soil moisture and biogeochemical factors influence the distribution of annual Bromus species

Treesearch

Jayne Belnap; John M. Stark; Benjamin M. Rau; Edith B. Allen; Susan Phillips

2016-01-01

Abiotic factors have a strong influence on where annual Bromus species are found. At the large regional scale, temperature and precipitation extremes determine the boundaries of Bromus occurrence. At the more local scale, soil characteristics and climate influence distribution, cover, and performance. In hot, dry, summer-rainfall-dominated deserts (Sonoran, Chihuahuan...

Projections of West African summer monsoon rainfall extremes from two CORDEX models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akinsanola, A. A.; Zhou, Wen

2018-05-01

Global warming has a profound impact on the vulnerable environment of West Africa; hence, robust climate projection, especially of rainfall extremes, is quite important. Based on two representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios, projected changes in extreme summer rainfall events over West Africa were investigated using data from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment models. Eight (8) extreme rainfall indices (CDD, CWD, r10mm, r20mm, PRCPTOT, R95pTOT, rx5day, and sdii) defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices were used in the study. The performance of the regional climate model (RCM) simulations was validated by comparing with GPCP and TRMM observation data sets. Results show that the RCMs reasonably reproduced the observed pattern of extreme rainfall over the region and further added significant value to the driven GCMs over some grids. Compared to the baseline period 1976-2005, future changes (2070-2099) in summer rainfall extremes under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios show statistically significant decreasing total rainfall (PRCPTOT), while consecutive dry days and extreme rainfall events (R95pTOT) are projected to increase significantly. There are obvious indications that simple rainfall intensity (sdii) will increase in the future. This does not amount to an increase in total rainfall but suggests a likelihood of greater intensity of rainfall events. Overall, our results project that West Africa may suffer more natural disasters such as droughts and floods in the future.

Dry seasons identified in oak tree-ring chronology in the Czech Lands over the last millennium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dobrovolny, Petr; Brazdil, Rudolf; Büntgen, Ulf; Rybnicek, Michal; Kolar, Tomas; Reznickova, Ladislava; Valasek, Hubert; Kotyza, Oldrich

2015-04-01

There is growing evidence on amplification of hydrological regimes as a consequence of rising temperatures, increase in evaporation and changes in circulation patterns. These processes may be responsible for higher probability of hydroclimatic extremes occurrence in regional scale. Extreme events such as floods or droughts are rare from their definition and for better understanding of possible changes in the frequency and intensity of their occurrence, long-term proxy archives may be analysed. Recently several tree ring width chronologies were compiled from hardwood species occurring in lowland positions and their analysis proved that they are moisture-sensitive and suitable for hydroclimate reconstructions. Here, we introduce a new oak (Quercus sp) ring width (RW) dataset for the Czech Republic and the last 1250 years. We explain the process of oak chronology standardization that was based on several only slightly different de-trending techniques and subsequent chronology development steps. We hypothesize that the most severe RW increment reductions (negative extremes) reflect extremely dry spring-summer conditions. Negative extremes were assigned for years in which transformed oak RWs were lower than the minus 1.5 standard deviation. To verify our hypothesis, we compare typical climatic conditions in negative extreme years with climatology of the reference period 1961-1990. Comparison was done for various instrumental measurements (1805-2012), existing proxy reconstructions (1500-1804) and also for documentary evidence from historical archives (before 1500). We found that years of negative extremes are characterized with distinctly above average spring (MAM) and summer (JJA) air temperatures and below average precipitation amounts. Typical sea level pressure spatial distribution in those years shows positive pressure anomaly over British Isles and Northern Sea, the pattern that synoptically corresponds to blocking anticyclone bringing to Central Europe warm air from SW and low precipitation totals with higher probability of drought occurrence. Our results provide consistent physical explanation of extremely dry seasons occurring in Central Europe. However, direct comparisons of individual RW extreme seasons with existing documentary evidence show the complexity the problem as some extremes identified in oak RW chronology were not confirmed in documentary archives and vice versa. We discuss possible causes of such differences related to the fact that various proxies may have problems to record real intensity or duration of extreme events e.g. due to non-linear response of proxy data to climate drivers or due to shift in seasonality.

European summer heatwaves and North Atlantic weather regimes in the last Millennium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alvarez Castro, Maria del Carmen; Trasancos, Romain; Yiou, Pascal

2015-04-01

The European summer heatwaves have been increasing in frequency and magnitude in the past decades. A higher confidence in future changes in such extremes necessitates to have a better knowledge about extremes behavior in the past climate. The last millennium is well documented in terms of climate forcings. Modelling efforts have provided a wealth of climate simulations covering the last millennium. We want to exploit such data in order to assess how models simulate extreme summer heatwaves. The surface temperature and precipitation are closely related to atmospheric patterns. It has been shown that rainy winter/spring seasons reduce the frequency of hot summer days whereas dry seasons can be followed by summers with high or low frequency of hot days. In this poster, we show the relation between winter/spring precipitation with the frequency of hot days in the 10 hottest summers in Europe and Southern Europe during the Medieval Warm Period (MWP 1150-1250), the Little Ice Age (LIA 1650-1750), and the historical-present period (1850-2005). We first focus on a millennium simulations with the IPSL model (IPSL-CM5). We use daily temperature, precipitation, and SLP data from CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5) and a couple of IPSL simulations with diferents forcings. Summer weather regimes has been computed as well for NCEP sea level pressure data in order to compare observations with the same period (1948-2005) in CMIP5 and IPSL simulations outputs. We discuss and present the results comparing the effects of hydrological deficits in the preceding season, and the occurrence of specific weather regimes, during the hottest summers over Europe and SouthWestern Europe. This analysis compares differents climate forcings simulations.

The influence of mid-latitude storm tracks on hot, cold, dry and wet extremes

PubMed Central

Lehmann, Jascha; Coumou, Dim

2015-01-01

Changes in mid-latitude circulation can strongly affect the number and intensity of extreme weather events. In particular, high-amplitude quasi-stationary planetary waves have been linked to prolonged weather extremes at the surface. In contrast, analyses of fast-traveling synoptic-scale waves and their direct influence on heat and cold extremes are scarce though changes in such waves have been detected and are projected for the 21st century. Here we apply regression analyses of synoptic activity with surface temperature and precipitation in monthly gridded observational data. We show that over large parts of mid-latitude continental regions, summer heat extremes are associated with low storm track activity. In winter, the occurrence of cold spells is related to low storm track activity over parts of eastern North America, Europe, and central- to eastern Asia. Storm tracks thus have a moderating effect on continental temperatures. Pronounced storm track activity favors monthly rainfall extremes throughout the year, whereas dry spells are associated with a lack thereof. Trend analyses reveal significant regional changes in recent decades favoring the occurrence of cold spells in the eastern US, droughts in California and heat extremes over Eurasia. PMID:26657163

The paleoclimate context and future trajectory of extreme summer hydroclimate in eastern Australia

PubMed Central

Cook, Benjamin I; Palmer, Jonathan G; Cook, Edward R; Turney, Chris S M; Allen, Kathryn; Fenwick, Pavla; O’Donnell, Alison; Lough, Janice M; Grierson, Pauline F; Ho, Michelle; Baker, Patrick J

2018-01-01

Eastern Australia recently experienced an intense drought (Millennium Drought, 2003–2009) and record-breaking rainfall and flooding (austral summer 2010–2011). There is some limited evidence for a climate change contribution to these events, but such analyses are hampered by the paucity of information on long-term natural variability. Analyzing a new reconstruction of summer (December–January–February) Palmer Drought Severity Index (the Australia–New Zealand Drought Atlas; ANZDA, 1500–2012 CE), we find moisture deficits during the Millennium Drought fall within the range of the last 500 years of natural hydroclimate variability. This variability includes periods of multi-decadal drought in the 1500s more persistent than any event in the historical record. However, the severity of the Millennium Drought, which was caused by autumn (March–April–May) precipitation declines, may be underestimated in the ANZDA because the reconstruction is biased towards summer and antecedent spring (September-October-November) precipitation. The pluvial in 2011, however, which was characterized by extreme summer rainfall faithfully captured by the ANZDA, is likely the wettest year in the reconstruction for Coastal Queensland. Climate projections (RCP 8.5 scenario) suggest that eastern Australia will experience long-term drying during the 21st century. While the contribution of anthropogenic forcing to recent extremes remains an open question, these projections indicate an amplified risk of multi-year drought anomalies matching or exceeding the intensity of the Millennium Drought. PMID:29780675

Interannual variability in dissolved inorganic nutrients in northern San Francisco Bay estuary

USGS Publications Warehouse

Peterson, D.H.; Smith, R.E.; Hager, S.W.; Harmon, D.D.; Herndon, R.E.; Schemel, L.E.

1985-01-01

Nearly two decades of seasonal dissolved inorganic nutrient-salinity distributions in northern San Francisco Bay estuary (1960-1980) illustrate interannual variations in effects of river flow (a nutrient source) and phytoplankton productivity (a nutrient sink). During winter, nutrient sources dominate the nutrient-salinity distribution patterns (nutrients are at or exceed conservative mixing concentrations). During summer, however, the sources and sinks are in close competition. In summers of wet years, the effects of increased river flow often dominate the nutrient distributions (nutrients are at or less than conservative mixing concentrations), whereas in summers of dry years, phytoplankton productivity dominates (the very dry years 1976-1977 were an exception for reasons not yet clearly known). Such source/sink effects also vary with chemical species. During summer the control of phytoplankton on nutrient distributions is apparently strongest for ammonium, less so for nitrate and silica, and is the least for phosphate. Furthermore, the strength of the silica sink (diatom productivity) is at a maximum at intermediate river flows. This relation, which is in agreement with other studies based on phytoplankton abundance and enumeration, is significant to the extent that diatoms are an important food source for herbivores. The balance or lack of balance between nutrient sources and sinks varies from one estuary to another just as it can from one year to another within the same estuary. At one extreme, in some estuaries river flow dominates the estuarine dissolved inorganic nutrient distributions throughout most of the year. At the other extreme, phytoplankton productivity dominates. In northern San Francisco Bay, for example, the phytoplankton nutrient sink is not as strong as in less turbid estuaries. In this estuary, however, river effects, which produce or are associated with near-conservative nutrient distributions, are strong even at flows less than mean-annual flow. Thus, northern San Francisco Bay appears to be an estuary in between the two extremes and is shifted closer to one extreme or the other depending on interannual variations in river flow. ?? 1985 Dr W. Junk Publishers.

Reconstruction and analysis of spring rainfall over the southeastern US for the past 1000 years

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Stahle, D.W.; Cleaveland, M.K.

1992-12-01

Tree-ring chronologies can provide surprisingly accurate estimates of the natural variability of important climate parameters such as precipitation and temperature during the centuries prior to the industrial Revolution. Bald cypress tree-ring chronologies have been used to reconstruct spring rainfall for the past 1000 years in North Carolina, South Carolina, and Georgia. These rainfall reconstructions explain from 54% to 68% of the spring rainfall variance in each state, and are well verified against independent rainfall measurements. In fact, these tree-ring data explain only 6% to 13% less statewide rainfall variance than is explained by the same number of instrumental raingage records.more » The reconstructions indicate that the spring rainfall extremes and decade-long regimes witnessed during the past century of instrumental observation have been a prominent feature of southeastern United States climate over the past millennium. These spring rainfall regimes are linked in part to anomalies in the seasonal expansion and migration of the subtropical anticyclone over the North Atlantic. The western sector of the Bermuda high often ridges strongly westward into the southeastern United States during dry springs, but during wet springs it is usually located east of its mean position and well offshore. Similar anomalies in the western sector of the Bermuda high occurred during multidecadal regimes of spring rainfall over the Southeast. During the relatively dry springs from 1901 to 1939, the high often ridged into the Southeast, but the western periphery of the high was more frequently located offshore during the relatively wet period from 1940 to 1980. Spring and summer rainfall extremes and decade-long regimes over the Southeast are frequently out of phase, and the tendency for wet (dry) springs to be followed by dry (wet) summers also appears to reflect anomalies in the zonal position of the Bermuda high during spring and summer.« less

Future summer mega-heatwave and record-breaking temperatures in a warmer France climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bador, Margot; Terray, Laurent; Boé, Julien; Somot, Samuel; Alias, Antoinette; Gibelin, Anne-Laure; Dubuisson, Brigitte

2017-07-01

This study focuses on future very hot summers associated with severe heatwaves and record-breaking temperatures in France. Daily temperature observations and a pair of historical and scenario (greenhouse gas radiative concentration pathway 8.5) simulations with the high-resolution (∼12.5 km) ALADIN regional climate model provide a robust framework to examine the spatial distribution of these extreme events and their 21st century evolution. Five regions are identified with an extreme event spatial clustering algorithm applied to observed temperatures. They are used to diagnose the 21st century heatwave spatial patterns. In the 2070s, we find a simulated mega-heatwave as severe as the 2003 observed heatwave relative to its contemporaneous climate. A 20-member initial condition ensemble is used to assess the sensitivity of this future heatwave to the internal variability in the regional climate model and to pre-existing land surface conditions. Even in a much warmer and drier climate in France, late spring dry land conditions may lead to a significant amplification of summer extreme temperatures and heatwave intensity through limitations in evapotranspiration. By 2100, the increase in summer temperature maxima exhibits a range from 6 °C to almost 13 °C in the five regions in France, relative to historical maxima. These projections are comparable with the estimates given by a large number of global climate models.

The role of local heating in the 2015 Indian Heat Wave.

PubMed

Ghatak, Debjani; Zaitchik, Benjamin; Hain, Christopher; Anderson, Martha

2017-08-09

India faced a major heat wave during the summer of 2015. Temperature anomalies peaked in the dry period before the onset of the summer monsoon, suggesting that local land-atmosphere feedbacks involving desiccated soils and vegetation might have played a role in driving the heat extreme. Upon examination of in situ data, reanalysis, satellite observations, and land surface models, we find that the heat wave included two distinct peaks: one in late May, and a second in early June. During the first peak we find that clear skies led to a positive net radiation anomaly at the surface, but there is no significant sensible heat flux anomaly within the core of the heat wave affected region. By the time of the second peak, however, soil moisture had dropped to anomalously low levels in the core heat wave region, net surface radiation was anomalously high, and a significant positive sensible heat flux anomaly developed. This led to a substantial local forcing on air temperature that contributed to the intensity of the event. The analysis indicates that the highly agricultural landscape of North and Central India can reinforce heat extremes under dry conditions.

Extreme droughts affecting Mediterranean tree species' growth and water-use efficiency: the importance of timing.

PubMed

Forner, Alicia; Valladares, Fernando; Bonal, Damien; Granier, André; Grossiord, Charlotte; Aranda, Ismael

2018-03-15

It has been known for a long time that drought intensity is a critical variable in determining water stress of Mediterranean tree species. However, not as much attention has been paid to other drought characteristics, for example the timing of the dry periods. We investigated the impact of the timing and intensity of extreme droughts on growing season length, growth and water-use efficiency of three tree species, Pinus nigra ssp. Salzmannii J.F. Arnold, Quercus ilex ssp. ballota (Desf.) Samp. and Quercus faginea Lam. coexisting in a continental Mediterranean ecosystem. Over the study period (2009-13), intense droughts were observed at annual and seasonal scales, particularly during 2011 and 2012. In 2012, an atypically dry winter and spring was followed by an intense summer drought. Quercus faginea growth was affected more by drought timing than by drought intensity, probably because of its winter-deciduous leaf habit. Pinus nigra showed a lower decrease in secondary growth than observed in the two Quercus species in extremely dry years. Resilience to extreme droughts was different among species, with Q. faginea showing poorer recovery of growth after very dry years. The highest intra- and inter-annual plasticity in water-use efficiency was observed in P. nigra, which maintained a more water-saving strategy. Our results revealed that the timing of extreme drought events can affect tree function to a larger extent than drought intensity, especially in deciduous species. Legacy effects of drought over months and years significantly strengthened the impact of drought timing and intensity on tree function.

CMIP5 projected changes in spring and summer drought and wet conditions over North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Swain, Sharmistha; Hayhoe, Katharine

2015-05-01

Climate change is expected to alter the mean and variability of future spring and summer drought and wet conditions during the twenty-first century across North America, as characterized by the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). Based on Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 simulations, statistically significant increases are projected in mean spring SPI over the northern part of the continent, and drier conditions across the southwest. Dry conditions in summer also increase, particularly throughout the central Great Plains. By end of century, greater changes are projected under a higher radiative forcing scenario (RCP 8.5) as compared to moderate (RCP 6.0) and lower (RCP 4.5). Analysis of projected changes standardized to a range of global warming thresholds from +1 to +4 °C reveals a consistent spatial pattern of wetter conditions in the northern and drier conditions in the southwestern part of the continent in spring that intensifies under increased warming, suggesting that the magnitude of projected changes in wetness and drought may scale with global temperature. For many regions, SPI interannual variability is also projected to increase (even for regions that are projected to become drier), indicating that climate may become more extreme under greater warming, with increased frequency of both extreme dry and wet seasons. Quantifying the direction and magnitude of projected future trends from global warming is key to informing strategies to mitigate human influence on climate and help natural and managed resources adapt.

Influence of summer marine fog and low cloud stratus on water relations of evergreen woody shrubs (Arctostaphylos: Ericaceae) in the chaparral of central California.

PubMed

Vasey, Michael C; Loik, Michael E; Parker, V Thomas

2012-10-01

Mediterranean-type climate (MTC) regions around the world are notable for cool, wet winters and hot, dry summers. A dominant vegetation type in all five MTC regions is evergreen, sclerophyllous shrubland, called chaparral in California. The extreme summer dry season in California is moderated by a persistent low-elevation layer of marine fog and cloud cover along the margin of the Pacific coast. We tested whether late dry season water potentials (Ψ(min)) of chaparral shrubs, such as Arctostaphylos species in central California, are influenced by this coast-to-interior climate gradient. Lowland coastal (maritime) shrubs were found to have significantly less negative Ψ(min) than upland interior shrubs (interior), and stable isotope (δ(13)C) values exhibited greater water use efficiency in the interior. Post-fire resprouter shrubs (resprouters) had significantly less negative Ψ(min) than co-occurring obligate seeder shrubs (seeders) in interior and transitional chaparral, possibly because resprouters have deeper root systems with better access to subsurface water than shallow-rooted seeders. Unexpectedly, maritime resprouters and seeders did not differ significantly in their Ψ(min), possibly reflecting more favorable water availability for shrubs influenced by the summer marine layer. Microclimate and soil data also suggest that maritime habitats have more favorable water availability than the interior. While maritime seeders constitute the majority of local Arctostaphylos endemics, they exhibited significantly greater vulnerability to xylem cavitation than interior seeders. Because rare seeders in maritime chaparral are more vulnerable to xylem cavitation than interior seeders, the potential breakdown of the summer marine layer along the coast is of potential conservation concern.

Monitoring floods and fires during the summer of 2011--The value of the Landsat satellite 40-year archives

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jonescheit, Linda

2012-01-01

The summer of 2011 proved to be a season of extreme events. Heavy snowfall in the western mountains and excessive spring rains caused flooding along the Missouri and Mississippi Rivers; whereas extended dry conditions enabled fires to rage out of control from Alaska and Canada, south to Texas, Arizona, New Mexico, Georgia, and Mexico. The Landsat archive holds nearly 40 years of continuous global earth observation data. Landsat data are used by emergency responders to monitor change and damage caused by natural and man-made disasters. Decision makers rely on Landsat as they create plans for future environmental concerns.

Understanding the Mechanisms by Which a Perennial Arctic Stream Appears Intermittent

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Betts, E.; Kane, D. L.

2011-12-01

Fish and wildlife species in the Arctic have developed life history strategies to deal with the extreme climate of the North. In the case of Arctic grayling, these strategies include long life, yearly spawning, and migration. In order to understand how such a species will be affected by a changing climate, we must determine how these adaptive strategies may be at odds with the changing Arctic landscape. Arctic grayling migrate to spawning grounds just after break up in the spring, then migrate to feeding sites in early summer, and finally in the fall migrate back to their overwintering sites. Low precipitation and high evapotranspiration rates early in the summer can lead to low water levels and a fragmentation of the hydrologic landscape. This fragmentation creates a barrier to fish migration. The Kuparuk River is a perennial stream originating in the foothills of the Brooks Range on the North Slope of Alaska. The basin is entirely underlain by permafrost which essentially cuts the system off from deep groundwater. Subsurface flow occurs in the active layer, that area above permafrost which undergoes seasonal thawing in the summer. Sections of the Kuparuk are intermittent in that during low flows in the system these reaches appear dry. Water reappears downstream of these dry reaches and it is believed that water continues to flow below the surface through the unfrozen thaw bulb beneath these reaches. These dry reaches act as summer barriers to fish migration within the Kuparuk River system. Previous research of this phenomenon sought to understand the location and timing of these "dry" events. This work found that these reaches appear dry anywhere from 2 days to 4 weeks at a time and average about 22 dry days a year. The timing of these dry events is fairly uniform throughout the summer. The three dry reaches in this study range from 1.5 miles in length to over 5 miles. The dry reaches in this study occur just upstream of aufeis fields. It has been shown previously that most aufeis fields on the North Slope are fed by deep groundwater springs. In this system however we know that this water is much younger and therefore likely from a much closer source. Specifically, it is the hypothesis of the author that the water feeding these aufeis fields is related to water being stored in unfrozen zones above the permafrost. This storage area represents an area of preferential flow which explains why flow runs completely subsurface during periods of low flow in the Kuparuk. The research presented here represents year two of the current project which has focused on understanding the mechanisms which drive these dry events in an effort to determine whether climate change will act to increase the instances of such events.

Tree-Ring Dating of Extreme Lake Levels at the Subarctic?Boreal Interface

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bégin, Yves

2001-03-01

The dates of extreme water levels of two large lakes in northern Quebec have been recorded over the last century by ice scars on shoreline trees and sequences of reaction wood in shore trees tilted by wave erosion. Ice-scar chronologies indicate high water levels in spring, whereas tree-tilting by waves is caused by summer high waters. A major increase in both the amplitude and frequency of ice floods occurred in the 1930s. No such change was indicated by the tree-tilting chronologies, but wave erosion occurred in exceptionally rainy years. According to the modern record, spring lake-level rise is due to increased snowfalls since the 1930s. However, the absence of erosional marks in a large number of years since 1930 suggests a high frequency of low-water-level years resulting from dry conditions. Intercalary years with very large numbers of marked trees (e.g., 1935) indicate that the interannual range of summer lake levels has increased since the 1930s. Increased lake-flood frequency is postulated to be related to a slower expansion of arctic anticyclones, favoring the passage of cyclonic air masses over the area and resulting in abundant snowfall in early winter. Conditions in summer are due to the rate of weakening of the anticyclones controlling the position of the arctic front in summer. This position influences the path of the cyclonic air masses, which control summer precipitation and, consequently, summer lake levels in the area.

Regional and seasonal response of a West Nile virus vector to climate change.

PubMed

Morin, Cory W; Comrie, Andrew C

2013-09-24

Climate change will affect the abundance and seasonality of West Nile virus (WNV) vectors, altering the risk of virus transmission to humans. Using downscaled general circulation model output, we calculate a WNV vector's response to climate change across the southern United States using process-based modeling. In the eastern United States, Culex quinquefasciatus response to projected climate change displays a latitudinal and elevational gradient. Projected summer population depressions as a result of increased immature mortality and habitat drying are most severe in the south and almost absent further north; extended spring and fall survival is ubiquitous. Much of California also exhibits a bimodal pattern. Projected onset of mosquito season is delayed in the southwestern United States because of extremely dry and hot spring and summers; however, increased temperature and late summer and fall rains extend the mosquito season. These results are unique in being a broad-scale calculation of the projected impacts of climate change on a WNV vector. The results show that, despite projected widespread future warming, the future seasonal response of C. quinquefasciatus populations across the southern United States will not be homogeneous, and will depend on specific combinations of local and regional conditions.

Phytoplankton bloom in Spencer Gulf, South Australia

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2002-01-01

Summer in southern Australia is the dry season, and in this true-color MODIS image of South Australia and the Spencer Gulf from October 20,2001, the area's vegetation is losing much of the lushness it possessed in the winter rainy season (See image from September 19, 2001). In southern hemisphere summer, the high pressure systems that dominate the continent's weather move south, and block the rain-bearing westerly winds. The resulting changes in seasonal rainfall are extreme. Many of the rivers are impermanent, and flow into dry or impermanent salt lakes, such as Lake Torrens (long, thin lake bed, roughly in the center of the image), and Lake Eyre (pink and white lake bed to the northwest of Torrens). Between the Eyre Peninsula (lower left) and the Yorke Peninsula further east lies the Spencer Gulf, showing the blue-green swirls that indicate a phytoplankton bloom. Australia gets less rainfall than any continent except Antarctica, and the low and seasonal flows contribute to problems with salinity and algal blooms in the continent's surface waters.

Extreme hydrometeorological events in the Peruvian Central Andes during austral summer and their relationship with the large-scale circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sulca, Juan C.

In this Master's dissertation, atmospheric circulation patterns associated with extreme hydrometeorological events in the Mantaro Basin, Peruvian Central Andes, and their teleconnections during the austral summer (December-January-February-March) are addressed. Extreme rainfall events in the Mantaro basin are related to variations of the large-scale circulation as indicated by the changing strength of the Bolivian High-Nordeste Low (BH-NL) system. Dry (wet) spells are associated with a weakening (strengthening) of the BH-NL system and reduced (enhanced) influx of moist air from the lowlands to the east due to strengthened westerly (easterly) wind anomalies at mid- and upper-tropospheric levels. At the same time extreme rainfall events of the opposite sign occur over northeastern Brazil (NEB) due to enhanced (inhibited) convective activity in conjunction with a strengthened (weakened) Nordeste Low. Cold episodes in the Mantaro Basin are grouped in three types: weak, strong and extraordinary cold episodes. Weak and strong cold episodes in the MB are mainly associated with a weakening of the BH-NL system due to tropical-extratropical interactions. Both types of cold episodes are associated with westerly wind anomalies at mid- and upper-tropospheric levels aloft the Peruvian Central Andes, which inhibit the influx of humid air masses from the lowlands to the east and hence limit the potential for development of convective cloud cover. The resulting clear sky conditions cause nighttime temperatures to drop, leading to cold extremes below the 10-percentile. Extraordinary cold episodes in the MB are associated with cold and dry polar air advection at all tropospheric levels toward the central Peruvian Andes. Therefore, weak and strong cold episodes in the MB appear to be caused by radiative cooling associated with reduced cloudiness, rather than cold air advection, while the latter plays an important role for extraordinary cold episodes only.

An assessment of precipitation and surface air temperature over China by regional climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Xueyuan; Tang, Jianping; Niu, Xiaorui; Wang, Shuyu

2016-12-01

An analysis of a 20-year summer time simulation of present-day climate (1989-2008) over China using four regional climate models coupled with different land surface models is carried out. The climatic means, interannual variability, linear trends, and extremes are examined, with focus on precipitation and near surface air temperature. The models are able to reproduce the basic features of the observed summer mean precipitation and temperature over China and the regional detail due to topographic forcing. Overall, the model performance is better for temperature than that of precipitation. The models reasonably grasp the major anomalies and standard deviations over China and the five subregions studied. The models generally reproduce the spatial pattern of high interannual variability over wet regions, and low variability over the dry regions. The models also capture well the variable temperature gradient increase to the north by latitude. Both the observed and simulated linear trend of precipitation shows a drying tendency over the Yangtze River Basin and wetting over South China. The models capture well the relatively small temperature trends in large areas of China. The models reasonably simulate the characteristics of extreme precipitation indices of heavy rain days and heavy precipitation fraction. Most of the models also performed well in capturing both the sign and magnitude of the daily maximum and minimum temperatures over China.

Interannual Variability of the Bimodal Distribution of Summertime Rainfall Over Central America and Tropical Storm Activity in the Far-Eastern Pacific

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Curtis, Scott; Starr, David OC. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

The summer climate of southern Mexico and Central America is characterized by a mid summer drought (MSD), where rainfall is reduced by 40% in July as compared to June and September. A mid-summer reduction in the climatological number of eastern Pacific tropical cyclones has also been noted. Little is understood about the climatology and interannual variability of these minima. The present study uses a novel approach to quantify the bimodal distribution of summertime rainfall for the globe and finds that this feature of the annual cycle is most extreme over Pan America and adjacent oceans. One dominant interannual signal in this region occurs the summer before a strong winter El Nino/Southern Oscillation ENSO. Before El Nino events the region is dry, the MSD is strong and centered over the ocean, and the mid-summer minimum in tropical cyclone frequency is most pronounced. This is significantly different from Neutral cases (non-El Nino and non-La Nina) when the MSD is weak and positioned over the land bridge. The MSD is highly variable for La Nina years, and there is not an obvious mid-summer minimum in the number of tropical cyclones.

Diagnosing the Nature of Land-Atmosphere Coupling During the 2006-7 Dry/Wet Extremes in the U. S. Southern Great Plains

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Santanello, Joseph A., Jr.; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.; Kumar, Sujay V.; Dong, Xiquan; Kennedy, Aaron D.

2011-01-01

The degree of coupling between the land surface and PBL in NWP models remains largely undiagnosed due to the complex interactions and feedbacks present across a range of scales. In this study, a framework for diagnosing local land-atmosphere coupling (LoCo) is presented using a coupled mesoscale model with observations during the summers of 2006/7 in the U.S. Southern Great Plains. Specifically, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model has been coupled to NASA's Land Information System (LIS), which enables a suite of PBL and land surface model (LSM) options along provides a flexible and high-resolution representation and initialization of land surface physics and states. This coupling is one component of a larger project to develop a NASA-Unified WRF (NU-WRF) system. A range of diagnostics exploring the feedbacks between soil moisture and precipitation are examined for the dry/wet extremes, along with the sensitivity of PBL-LSM coupling to perturbations in soil moisture.

Interactions of Multiple Atmospheric Circulation Drive the Drought in Tarim River Basin.

PubMed

Wu, Yong-Ping; Feng, Guo-Lin; Li, Bai-Lian

2016-05-20

Global warming is likely to cause overall drying of land surfaces and aridity increasing leading to expansion of dry climate zones. There is an increased risk of extremely arid environment and large deserts developed progressively in the central Asia. However, the key factors causing the drying in mid-Asia remain inconclusive. Here, we analyzed the relationship among precipitation, water vapor transportation in Tarim River Basin (TRB) and Multiple Atmospheric Circulation (MAC) to explore the mechanism of MAC driving the drying in TRB, through comparing MAC between abundant and scarce precipitation years. We found that Westerly Circulation (WC) and Asian Summer Monsoon (ASM) are likely to promote the precipitation respectively. Whereas, they not only have their own influence but also restrict each other and facilitate the forming of peculiar water vapor transport channel for TRB, which is probably to restrain the precipitation and its distribution pattern and accelerate the drying in this region. Our results enrich the findings on mechanisms of wet places becoming wetter while dry areas getting drier under the global warming.

Interactions of Multiple Atmospheric Circulation Drive the Drought in Tarim River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Yong-Ping; Feng, Guo-Lin; Li, Bai-Lian

2016-05-01

Global warming is likely to cause overall drying of land surfaces and aridity increasing leading to expansion of dry climate zones. There is an increased risk of extremely arid environment and large deserts developed progressively in the central Asia. However, the key factors causing the drying in mid-Asia remain inconclusive. Here, we analyzed the relationship among precipitation, water vapor transportation in Tarim River Basin (TRB) and Multiple Atmospheric Circulation (MAC) to explore the mechanism of MAC driving the drying in TRB, through comparing MAC between abundant and scarce precipitation years. We found that Westerly Circulation (WC) and Asian Summer Monsoon (ASM) are likely to promote the precipitation respectively. Whereas, they not only have their own influence but also restrict each other and facilitate the forming of peculiar water vapor transport channel for TRB, which is probably to restrain the precipitation and its distribution pattern and accelerate the drying in this region. Our results enrich the findings on mechanisms of wet places becoming wetter while dry areas getting drier under the global warming.

Year-round record of Dry Valley soil CO2 flux provides insights into Antarctic soil dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Risk, D. A.; Lee, C.; Macintyre, C. M.; Cary, C.

2012-12-01

The McMurdo Dry Valleys of Antarctica host extreme soil microbial communities that have been extensively studied within the past decade. Activity of microbial communities is routinely measured via soil CO2 flux, and some useful Antarctic measurements have been made during short Austral summers. These studies are mostly spatial in nature, but temporal patterns are also valuable and may provide insights into critical thresholds and the interplay between various mechanisms that drive CO2 flux and its variation. New membrane-based Forced Diffusion (FD) soil efflux techniques offer promise for this application. The purpose of this study was to use a specially designed FD instrument in Hidden Valley of the Antarctic Dry Valleys to evaluate hardware performance in year-round deployments, and to identify features of interest with respect to soil CO2 flux variation. Overall, the deployment was successful. Small but sustained positive fluxes were present only twice during the year. The first such event was small but consistent and of long duration, occurring in the Austral winter. The second was more volatile and likely of microbial origin, and appeared for roughly a month at the end of the calendar year within the Austral summer. The observed patterns suggest that Hidden Valley soil CO2 fluxes are not solely biological in nature, but likely modulated by a combination of biological, geological, and physical processes, which will be discussed in this presentation. In future studies, additional measurement locations, and simultaneous subsurface and lower atmospheric gradient concentration measurements (power-permitting) would be extremely valuable for interpreting measured fluxes, to help identify advective depletion events, the depth source of fluxes, and changes in soil and atmospheric diffusivities.

Synoptic-scale characteristics and atmospheric controls of summer heat waves in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Weiwen; Zhou, Wen; Li, Xiuzhen; Wang, Xin; Wang, Dongxiao

2016-05-01

Summer heat waves with persistent extreme high temperatures have been occurring with increasing frequency in recent decades. These extreme events have disastrous consequences for human health, economies, and ecosystems. In this study, we examine three summers with intense and protracted heat waves: the summers of 2003, 2006, and 2013, with high temperatures located mainly in southeastern, southwestern, and eastern China, respectively. The synoptic-scale characteristics of these heat waves and associated atmospheric circulation anomalies are investigated. In the early heat wave episode of 2003, a heat center was located in the southeast coastal provinces during the first 20 days of July. The maximum southward displacement of the East Asian jet stream (EAJS) induced anticyclonic anomalies to the south, associated with southwestward intensification of the western North Pacific subtropical high (WNPSH), and extreme high temperatures were found only to the south of the Yangtze River. In the later episode, a poleward displacement of the EAJS and an enhanced WNPSH over the midlatitudes of eastern China resulted in a "heat dome" over the region, and the heat wave extended northward to cover a larger area of eastern China. The coupling between the westward-enhanced WNPSH and poleward-displaced EAJS was found in the East China heat wave of 2013 as well. But the area of high temperatures reached far to the north in August 2013, with below-normal temperatures located in a small region of South China. In the 2006 southwestern drought and heat wave, extreme poleward displacement of the EAJS, associated with extraordinary westward extension of the WNSPH, resulted in further blocking of the moisture supply from the southwest monsoon. Large-scale moisture deficiencies, dry conditions, and downslope winds were common features of all investigated heat wave episodes. But in 2006, low-level heat lows associated with a well-mixed layer due to intensive daytime heating and atmospheric turbulence were emphasized.

Survival, growth and reproduction of non-native Nile tilapia II: fundamental niche projections and invasion potential in the northern Gulf of Mexico.

PubMed

Lowe, Michael R; Wu, Wei; Peterson, Mark S; Brown-Peterson, Nancy J; Slack, William T; Schofield, Pamela J

2012-01-01

Understanding the fundamental niche of invasive species facilitates our ability to predict both dispersal patterns and invasion success and therefore provides the basis for better-informed conservation and management policies. Here we focus on Nile tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus Linnaeus, 1758), one of the most widely cultured fish worldwide and a species that has escaped local aquaculture facilities to become established in a coastal-draining river in Mississippi (northern Gulf of Mexico). Using empirical physiological data, logistic regression models were developed to predict the probabilities of Nile tilapia survival, growth, and reproduction at different combinations of temperature (14 and 30°C) and salinity (0-60, by increments of 10). These predictive models were combined with kriged seasonal salinity data derived from multiple long-term data sets to project the species' fundamental niche in Mississippi coastal waters during normal salinity years (averaged across all years) and salinity patterns in extremely wet and dry years (which might emerge more frequently under scenarios of climate change). The derived fundamental niche projections showed that during the summer, Nile tilapia is capable of surviving throughout Mississippi's coastal waters but growth and reproduction were limited to river mouths (or upriver). Overwinter survival was also limited to river mouths. The areas where Nile tilapia could survive, grow, and reproduce increased during extremely wet years (2-368%) and decreased during extremely dry years (86-92%) in the summer with a similar pattern holding for overwinter survival. These results indicate that Nile tilapia is capable of 1) using saline waters to gain access to other watersheds throughout the region and 2) establishing populations in nearshore, low-salinity waters, particularly in the western portion of coastal Mississippi.

On the Role of SST Forcing in the 2011 and 2012 Extreme U.S. Heat and Drought: A Study in Contrasts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wang, Hailan; Schubert, Siegfried; Koster, Randal; Ham, Yoo-Geun; Suarez, Max

2013-01-01

This study compares the extreme heat and drought that developed over the United States in 2011 and 2012 with a focus on the role of SST forcing. Experiments with the NASA GEOS-5 atmospheric general circulation model show that the winter/spring response over the U.S. to the Pacific SST is remarkably similar for the two years despite substantial differences in the tropical Pacific SST. As such, the pronounced winter and early spring temperature differences between the two years (warmth confined to the south in 2011 and covering much of the continent in 2012) primarily reflect differences in the contributions from the Atlantic and Indian Oceans, with both acting to cool the east and upper mid-west during 2011, while during 2012 the Indian Ocean reinforced the Pacific-driven continental-wide warming and the Atlantic played a less important role. During late spring and summer of 2011 the tropical Pacific SST force a continued warming and drying over the southern U.S., though considerably weaker than observed. Nevertheless, the observed anomalies fall within the models intra-ensemble spread. In contrast, the rapid development of intense heat and drying over the central U.S. during June and July of 2012 falls outside the models intra-ensemble spread. The response to the SST (a northward expansion of a modest summer warming linked to the Atlantic) gives little indication that 2012 would produce record-breaking precipitation deficits and heat in the central Great Plains. A diagnosis of the 2012 observed circulation anomalies shows that the most extreme heat and drought was tied to the development of a stationary Rossby wave and an associated anomalous upper tropospheric high maintained by weather transients.

Survival, Growth and Reproduction of Non-Native Nile Tilapia II: Fundamental Niche Projections and Invasion Potential in the Northern Gulf of Mexico

PubMed Central

Lowe, Michael R.; Wu, Wei; Peterson, Mark S.; Brown-Peterson, Nancy J.; Slack, William T.; Schofield, Pamela J.

2012-01-01

Understanding the fundamental niche of invasive species facilitates our ability to predict both dispersal patterns and invasion success and therefore provides the basis for better-informed conservation and management policies. Here we focus on Nile tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus Linnaeus, 1758), one of the most widely cultured fish worldwide and a species that has escaped local aquaculture facilities to become established in a coastal-draining river in Mississippi (northern Gulf of Mexico). Using empirical physiological data, logistic regression models were developed to predict the probabilities of Nile tilapia survival, growth, and reproduction at different combinations of temperature (14 and 30°C) and salinity (0–60, by increments of 10). These predictive models were combined with kriged seasonal salinity data derived from multiple long-term data sets to project the species' fundamental niche in Mississippi coastal waters during normal salinity years (averaged across all years) and salinity patterns in extremely wet and dry years (which might emerge more frequently under scenarios of climate change). The derived fundamental niche projections showed that during the summer, Nile tilapia is capable of surviving throughout Mississippi's coastal waters but growth and reproduction were limited to river mouths (or upriver). Overwinter survival was also limited to river mouths. The areas where Nile tilapia could survive, grow, and reproduce increased during extremely wet years (2–368%) and decreased during extremely dry years (86–92%) in the summer with a similar pattern holding for overwinter survival. These results indicate that Nile tilapia is capable of 1) using saline waters to gain access to other watersheds throughout the region and 2) establishing populations in nearshore, low-salinity waters, particularly in the western portion of coastal Mississippi. PMID:22848533

Survival, growth and reproduction of non-native Nile tilapia II: fundamental niche projections and invasion potential in the northern Gulf of Mexico

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lowe, Michael R.; Wu, Wei; Peterson, Mark S.; Brown-Peterson, Nancy J.; Slack, William T.; Schofield, Pamela J.

2012-01-01

Understanding the fundamental niche of invasive species facilitates our ability to predict both dispersal patterns and invasion success and therefore provides the basis for better-informed conservation and management policies. Here we focus on Nile tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus Linnaeus, 1758), one of the most widely cultured fish worldwide and a species that has escaped local aquaculture facilities to become established in a coastal-draining river in Mississippi (northern Gulf of Mexico). Using empirical physiological data, logistic regression models were developed to predict the probabilities of Nile tilapia survival, growth, and reproduction at different combinations of temperature (14 and 30°C) and salinity (0–60, by increments of 10). These predictive models were combined with kriged seasonal salinity data derived from multiple long-term data sets to project the species' fundamental niche in Mississippi coastal waters during normal salinity years (averaged across all years) and salinity patterns in extremely wet and dry years (which might emerge more frequently under scenarios of climate change). The derived fundamental niche projections showed that during the summer, Nile tilapia is capable of surviving throughout Mississippi's coastal waters but growth and reproduction were limited to river mouths (or upriver). Overwinter survival was also limited to river mouths. The areas where Nile tilapia could survive, grow, and reproduce increased during extremely wet years (2–368%) and decreased during extremely dry years (86–92%) in the summer with a similar pattern holding for overwinter survival. These results indicate that Nile tilapia is capable of 1) using saline waters to gain access to other watersheds throughout the region and 2) establishing populations in nearshore, low-salinity waters, particularly in the western portion of coastal Mississippi.

The combined effects of a long-term experimental drought and an extreme drought on the use of plant-water sources in a Mediterranean forest.

PubMed

Barbeta, Adrià; Mejía-Chang, Monica; Ogaya, Romà; Voltas, Jordi; Dawson, Todd E; Peñuelas, Josep

2015-03-01

Vegetation in water-limited ecosystems relies strongly on access to deep water reserves to withstand dry periods. Most of these ecosystems have shallow soils over deep groundwater reserves. Understanding the functioning and functional plasticity of species-specific root systems and the patterns of or differences in the use of water sources under more frequent or intense droughts is therefore necessary to properly predict the responses of seasonally dry ecosystems to future climate. We used stable isotopes to investigate the seasonal patterns of water uptake by a sclerophyll forest on sloped terrain with shallow soils. We assessed the effect of a long-term experimental drought (12 years) and the added impact of an extreme natural drought that produced widespread tree mortality and crown defoliation. The dominant species, Quercus ilex, Arbutus unedo and Phillyrea latifolia, all have dimorphic root systems enabling them to access different water sources in space and time. The plants extracted water mainly from the soil in the cold and wet seasons but increased their use of groundwater during the summer drought. Interestingly, the plants subjected to the long-term experimental drought shifted water uptake toward deeper (10-35 cm) soil layers during the wet season and reduced groundwater uptake in summer, indicating plasticity in the functional distribution of fine roots that dampened the effect of our experimental drought over the long term. An extreme drought in 2011, however, further reduced the contribution of deep soil layers and groundwater to transpiration, which resulted in greater crown defoliation in the drought-affected plants. This study suggests that extreme droughts aggravate moderate but persistent drier conditions (simulated by our manipulation) and may lead to the depletion of water from groundwater reservoirs and weathered bedrock, threatening the preservation of these Mediterranean ecosystems in their current structures and compositions. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Comparative recruitment success of pine provenances (Pinus sylvestris, Pinus nigra) under simulated climate change in the Swiss Rhone valley

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Richter, Sarah; Moser, Barbara; Ghazoul, Jaboury; Wohlgemuth, Thomas

2010-05-01

Low elevation Scots pine forests of European inner-alpine dry valleys may potentially disappear under continued climate warming, largely in response to increased warming and drought effects. In the upper Rhone valley, the driest region in Switzerland, increased Scots pine mortality in mature forest stands and sparse tree establishment after a large-scale forest fire already give evidence for ongoing climate change. Furthermore, vegetation models predict a decline of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) and Pubescent oak (Quercus pubescens) even under a moderate temperature increase of 2-3°C. A decline of tree species in the region may lead to a transition from forest to a steppe-like vegetation. Such a change is of considerable concern for both biodiversity and natural hazard protection. Although changing climate conditions affect all life stages of a tree, its most vulnerable stage is recruitment. We tested P. sylvestris and P. nigra seedlings to simulated temperature increase and water stress, using seeds from the upper Rhone valley, Switzerland (CH), and from Peñyagolosa, Spain (ES). The experiment was located outdoors at the bottom of the Rhone Valley. Treatments consisted of factorial combinations of 3 precipitation regimes (‘wet spring-wet summer', ‘dry spring-dry summer' and ‘wet spring-dry summer') and 3 soil heating levels (+0 °C, +2.5 °C, +5 °C). Automatically operated shelters intercepted natural rainfall and different precipitation regimes were simulated by manual irrigation. We found significantly lower germination rates under dry conditions compared to wet conditions, whereas soil temperature affected germination rates only for P. nigra and when elevated by 5°C. Contrastingly, an increase of soil temperatures by 2.5 °C already caused a substantial decrease of survival rates under both ‘dry spring-dry summer' and ‘wet spring-dry summer' conditions. Precipitation regime was more important for survival than temperature increase. Seasonality of precipitation had distinct effects on the number of seedlings present after the first growing season. In the ‘wet spring-dry summer' treatment, a high germination rate overcompensated for low summer survival rates, resulting in higher seedling numbers at the end of the growing season in comparison to the ‘dry spring-dry summer' treatment. Biomass strongly depended on precipitation regime (‘wet spring-wet summer' > ‘dry spring-dry summer' > ‘wet spring-dry summer'), as well as having a strong provenance component with higher biomass recorded for Spanish P. sylvestris provenance than for the Swiss provenance under dry conditions. Our results imply that impacts of climate warming on tree recruitment will strongly depend on the way precipitation quantity and patterns change in the future, and early recruitment stages of provenances clearly differ in their ability to cope with drought.

Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall: Implications of Contrasting Trends in the Spatial Variability of Means and Extremes

PubMed Central

Ghosh, Subimal; Vittal, H.; Sharma, Tarul; Karmakar, Subhankar; Kasiviswanathan, K. S.; Dhanesh, Y.; Sudheer, K. P.; Gunthe, S. S.

2016-01-01

India’s agricultural output, economy, and societal well-being are strappingly dependent on the stability of summer monsoon rainfall, its variability and extremes. Spatial aggregate of intensity and frequency of extreme rainfall events over Central India are significantly increasing, while at local scale they are spatially non-uniform with increasing spatial variability. The reasons behind such increase in spatial variability of extremes are poorly understood and the trends in mean monsoon rainfall have been greatly overlooked. Here, by using multi-decadal gridded daily rainfall data over entire India, we show that the trend in spatial variability of mean monsoon rainfall is decreasing as exactly opposite to that of extremes. The spatial variability of extremes is attributed to the spatial variability of the convective rainfall component. Contrarily, the decrease in spatial variability of the mean rainfall over India poses a pertinent research question on the applicability of large scale inter-basin water transfer by river inter-linking to address the spatial variability of available water in India. We found a significant decrease in the monsoon rainfall over major water surplus river basins in India. Hydrological simulations using a Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model also revealed that the water yield in surplus river basins is decreasing but it is increasing in deficit basins. These findings contradict the traditional notion of dry areas becoming drier and wet areas becoming wetter in response to climate change in India. This result also calls for a re-evaluation of planning for river inter-linking to supply water from surplus to deficit river basins. PMID:27463092

Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall: Implications of Contrasting Trends in the Spatial Variability of Means and Extremes.

PubMed

Ghosh, Subimal; Vittal, H; Sharma, Tarul; Karmakar, Subhankar; Kasiviswanathan, K S; Dhanesh, Y; Sudheer, K P; Gunthe, S S

2016-01-01

India's agricultural output, economy, and societal well-being are strappingly dependent on the stability of summer monsoon rainfall, its variability and extremes. Spatial aggregate of intensity and frequency of extreme rainfall events over Central India are significantly increasing, while at local scale they are spatially non-uniform with increasing spatial variability. The reasons behind such increase in spatial variability of extremes are poorly understood and the trends in mean monsoon rainfall have been greatly overlooked. Here, by using multi-decadal gridded daily rainfall data over entire India, we show that the trend in spatial variability of mean monsoon rainfall is decreasing as exactly opposite to that of extremes. The spatial variability of extremes is attributed to the spatial variability of the convective rainfall component. Contrarily, the decrease in spatial variability of the mean rainfall over India poses a pertinent research question on the applicability of large scale inter-basin water transfer by river inter-linking to address the spatial variability of available water in India. We found a significant decrease in the monsoon rainfall over major water surplus river basins in India. Hydrological simulations using a Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model also revealed that the water yield in surplus river basins is decreasing but it is increasing in deficit basins. These findings contradict the traditional notion of dry areas becoming drier and wet areas becoming wetter in response to climate change in India. This result also calls for a re-evaluation of planning for river inter-linking to supply water from surplus to deficit river basins.

Bunched black (and grouped grey) swans: Dissipative and non-dissipative models of correlated extreme fluctuations in complex geosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Watkins, N. W.

2013-01-01

I review the hierarchy of approaches to complex systems, focusing particularly on stochastic equations. I discuss how the main models advocated by the late Benoit Mandelbrot fit into this classification, and how they continue to contribute to cross-disciplinary approaches to the increasingly important problems of correlated extreme events and unresolved scales. The ideas have broad importance, with applications ranging across science areas as diverse as the heavy tailed distributions of intense rainfall in hydrology, after which Mandelbrot named the "Noah effect"; the problem of correlated runs of dry summers in climate, after which the "Joseph effect" was named; and the intermittent, bursty, volatility seen in finance and fluid turbulence.

Extreme summer temperatures in Iberia: health impacts and associated synoptic conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

García-Herrera, R.; Díaz, J.; Trigo, R. M.; Hernández, E.

2005-02-01

This paper examines the effect of extreme summer temperatures on daily mortality in two large cities of Iberia: Lisbon (Portugal) and Madrid (Spain). Daily mortality and meteorological variables are analysed using the same methodology based on Box-Jenkins models. Results reveal that in both cases there is a triggering effect on mortality when maximum daily temperature exceeds a given threshold (34°C in Lisbon and 36°C in Madrid). The impact of most intense heat events is very similar for both cities, with significant mortality values occurring up to 3 days after the temperature threshold has been surpassed. This impact is measured as the percentual increase of mortality associated to a 1°C increase above the threshold temperature. In this respect, Lisbon shows a higher impact, 31%, as compared with Madrid at 21%. The difference can be attributed to demographic and socio-economic factors. Furthermore, the longer life span of Iberian women is critical to explain why, in both cities, females are more susceptible than males to heat effects, with an almost double mortality impact value. The analysis of Sea Level Pressure (SLP), 500hPa geopotential height and temperature fields reveals that, despite being relatively close to each other, Lisbon and Madrid have relatively different synoptic circulation anomalies associated with their respective extreme summer temperature days. The SLP field reveals higher anomalies for Lisbon, but extending over a smaller area. Extreme values in Madrid seem to require a more western location of the Azores High, embracing a greater area over Europe, even if it is not as deep as for Lisbon. The origin of the hot and dry air masses that usually lead to extreme heat days in both cities is located in Northern Africa. However, while Madrid maxima require wind blowing directly from the south, transporting heat from Southern Spain and Northern Africa, Lisbon maxima occur under more easterly conditions, when Northern African air flows over the central Iberian plateau, which had been previously heated.

Regional tree growth and inferred summer climate in the Winnipeg River basin, Canada, since AD 1783

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

St. George, Scott; Meko, David M.; Evans, Michael N.

2008-09-01

A network of 54 ring-width chronologies is used to estimate changes in summer climate within the Winnipeg River basin, Canada, since AD 1783. The basin drains parts of northwestern Ontario, northern Minnesota and southeastern Manitoba, and is a key area for hydroelectric power production. Most chronologies were developed from Pinus resinosa and P. strobus, with a limited number of Thuja occidentalis, Picea glauca and Pinus banksiana. The dominant pattern of regional tree growth can be recovered using only the nine longest chronologies, and is not affected by the method used to remove variability related to age or stand dynamics from individual trees. Tree growth is significantly, but weakly, correlated with both temperature (negatively) and precipitation (positively) during summer. Simulated ring-width chronologies produced by a process model of tree-ring growth exhibit similar relationships with summer climate. High and low growth across the region is associated with cool/wet and warm/dry summers, respectively; this relationship is supported by comparisons with archival records from early 19th century fur-trading posts. The tree-ring record indicates that summer droughts were more persistent in the 19th and late 18th century, but there is no evidence that drought was more extreme prior to the onset of direct monitoring.

An empirical model to quantify fecal bacterial loadings to coastal areas: Application in a Mediterranean context

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rio, Marlène; Salles, Christian; Rodier, Claire; Cantet, Franck; Marchand, Pierre; Mosser, Thomas; Cernesson, Flavie; Monfort, Patrick; Tournoud, Marie-George

2017-10-01

In coastal catchments, rainfall events primarily drive bacterial inputs to the sea by causing land runoff, surface leaching and sewer overflow. Under semi-arid climate, extensive dry periods are interspersed with extreme precipitation. This paper aims to assess the impact of intense summer rainstorms events on Fecal Indicator Bacteria loadings to Mediterranean seawaters. Firstly, explanatory relationships were derived between an Antecedent Precipitation Index and the loads of thermo-tolerant coliforms and intestinal enterococci measured at three catchment outlets in the Gulf of Aigues-Mortes (southern France). Secondly, fecal bacterial loadings were simulated during summer season from 2006-2016, with a confidence interval arising from measurements uncertainties. On average, more than two rainstorms per summer season elevate bacterial loads at least by one order of magnitude, potentially leading to the degradation of bathing and fishing water quality observed in regulatory monitoring data. The results highlight the crucial importance of considering hydrological conditions in coastal water quality management.

Extreme wildfire events are linked to global-change-type droughts in the northern Mediterranean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruffault, Julien; Curt, Thomas; Martin-StPaul, Nicolas K.; Moron, Vincent; Trigo, Ricardo M.

2018-03-01

Increasing drought conditions under global warming are expected to alter the frequency and distribution of large and high-intensity wildfires. However, our understanding of the impact of increasing drought on extreme wildfires events remains incomplete. Here, we analyzed the weather conditions associated with the extreme wildfires events that occurred in Mediterranean France during the exceptionally dry summers of 2003 and 2016. We identified that these fires were related to two distinct shifts in the fire weather space towards fire weather conditions that had not been explored before and resulting from specific interactions between different types of drought and different fire weather types. In 2016, a long-lasting press drought intensified wind-driven fires. In 2003, a hot drought combining a heat wave with a press drought intensified heat-induced fires. Our findings highlight that increasing drought conditions projected by climate change scenarios might affect the dryness of fuel compartments and lead to a higher frequency of extremes wildfires events.

Air drying of softwood lumber, Fairbanks, Alaska.

Treesearch

George R Sampson; Forrest A. Ruppert

1985-01-01

Air-drying rates for two stacks of 2-inch-thick white spruce were observed in the Fairbanks area during summer 1982. The air-drying rate for the same size lumber was also observed during winter 1982-83. Very little drying occurred during the winter. Drying rates in summer were correlated with average daily temperature and average daily dew point to derive predictive...

Prevailing trends of climatic extremes across Indus-Delta of Sindh-Pakistan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abbas, Farhat; Rehman, Iqra; Adrees, Muhammad; Ibrahim, Muhammad; Saleem, Farhan; Ali, Shafaqat; Rizwan, Muhammad; Salik, Muhammad Raza

2018-02-01

This study examines the variability and change in the patterns of climatic extremes experienced in Indus-Delta of Sindh province of Pakistan, comprising regions of Karachi, Badin, Mohenjodaro, and Rohri. The homogenized daily minimum and maximum temperature and precipitation data for a 36-year period were used to calculate 13 and 11 indices of temperature and precipitation extremes with the help of RClimDex, a program written in the statistical software package R. A non-parametric Mann-Kendall test and Sen's slope estimates were used to determine the statistical significance and magnitude of the calculated trend. Temperatures of summer days and tropical nights increased in the region with overall significant warming trends for monthly maximum temperature as well as for warm days and nights reflecting dry conditions in the study area. The warm extremes and nighttime temperature indices showed greater trends than cold extremes and daytime indices depicting an overall warming trends in the Delta. Historic decrease in the acreage of major crops and over 33% decrease in agriculture credit for Sindh are the indicators of adverse impacts of warmer and drier weather on Sindh agriculture. Trends reported for Karachi and Badin are expected to decrease rice cultivation, hatching of fisheries, and mangroves forest surrounding these cities. Increase in the prevailing temperature trends will lead to increasingly hotter and drier summers resulting to constraints on cotton, wheat, and rice yield in Rohri and Mohenjodaro areas due to increased crop water requirements that may be met with additional groundwater pumping; nonetheless, the depleted groundwater resources would have a direct impact on the region's economy.

Projected changes in precipitation intensity and frequency over complex topography: a multi-model perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fischer, Andreas; Keller, Denise; Liniger, Mark; Rajczak, Jan; Schär, Christoph; Appenzeller, Christof

2014-05-01

Fundamental changes in the hydrological cycle are expected in a future warmer climate. This is of particular relevance for the Alpine region, as a source and reservoir of several major rivers in Europe and being prone to extreme events such as floodings. For this region, climate change assessments based on the ENSEMBLES regional climate models (RCMs) project a significant decrease in summer mean precipitation under the A1B emission scenario by the mid-to-end of this century, while winter mean precipitation is expected to slightly rise. From an impact perspective, projected changes in seasonal means, however, are often insufficient to adequately address the multifaceted challenges of climate change adaptation. In this study, we revisit the full matrix of the ENSEMBLES RCM projections regarding changes in frequency and intensity, precipitation-type (convective versus stratiform) and temporal structure (wet/dry spells and transition probabilities) over Switzerland and surroundings. As proxies for raintype changes, we rely on the model parameterized convective and large-scale precipitation components. Part of the analysis involves a Bayesian multi-model combination algorithm to infer changes from the multi-model ensemble. The analysis suggests a summer drying that evolves altitude-specific: over low-land regions it is associated with wet-day frequency decreases of convective and large-scale precipitation, while over elevated regions it is primarily associated with a decline in large-scale precipitation only. As a consequence, almost all the models project an increase in the convective fraction at elevated Alpine altitudes. The decrease in the number of wet days during summer is accompanied by decreases (increases) in multi-day wet (dry) spells. This shift in multi-day episodes also lowers the likelihood of short dry spell occurrence in all of the models. For spring and autumn the combined multi-model projections indicate higher mean precipitation intensity north of the Alps, while a similar tendency is expected for the winter season over most of Switzerland.

Growth of high-elevation Cryptococcus sp. during extreme freeze-thaw cycles.

PubMed

Vimercati, L; Hamsher, S; Schubert, Z; Schmidt, S K

2016-09-01

Soils above 6000 m.a.s.l. are among the most extreme environments on Earth, especially on high, dry volcanoes where soil temperatures cycle between -10 and 30 °C on a typical summer day. Previous studies have shown that such sites are dominated by yeast in the cryophilic Cryptococcus group, but it is unclear if they can actually grow (or are just surviving) under extreme freeze-thaw conditions. We carried out a series of experiments to determine if Cryptococcus could grow during freeze-thaw cycles similar to those measured under field conditions. We found that Cryptococcus phylotypes increased in relative abundance in soils subjected to 48 days of freeze-thaw cycles, becoming the dominant organisms in the soil. In addition, pure cultures of Cryptococcus isolated from these same soils were able to grow in liquid cultures subjected to daily freeze-thaw cycles, despite the fact that the culture medium froze solid every night. Furthermore, we showed that this organism is metabolically versatile and phylogenetically almost identical to strains from Antarctic Dry Valley soils. Taken together these results indicate that this organism has unique metabolic and temperature adaptations that make it able to thrive in one of the harshest and climatically volatile places on Earth.

Quantifying the Causes and Propogation of the 2015 Washington Wildfires

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Engel, R.; Marlier, M. E.; Lettenmaier, D. P.

2017-12-01

In the summer of 2015, Washington state experienced wildfires that burned over 450,000 ha, more than five times the average and more than three times the next-most severe fire season in the 30-year record. We examine the confluence of factors that led to the extreme fire season, and evaluate whether 2015 can be used as a predictor of possible future conditions that will be affected by climate warming. In previous work, we have found that 2015 was an extremely warm summer (nearly 1 degree C warmer than the previous year in the 30-year record) but was not particularly anomalous in terms of many other climatic indicators, including reconstructed soil moisture, the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), and the Canadian Fire Weather Index. However, according to the Dead Fuel Moisture (DFM), a drying index used by the US Forest Service, 2015 was an extreme year of record. The DFM relies on temperature, precipitation, and relative humidity to establish a daily equilibrium moisture content of dead material. We examine both Washington's 2015 fire season and the 30-year fire record with respect to climatology and other potential drivers of fire (e.g. forest health, ignition). Additionally, we explore the role of land cover with respect to fire propagation through the season. While too many potential causes of extreme fires exist to establish a concrete long-term relationship at such a fine scale, we find that the 2015 fire anomaly was at least partially climatically driven.

Stream Response to an Extreme Defoliation Event

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gold, A.; Loffredo, J.; Addy, K.; Bernhardt, E. S.; Berdanier, A. B.; Schroth, A. W.; Inamdar, S. P.; Bowden, W. B.

2017-12-01

Extreme climatic events are known to profoundly impact stream flow and stream fluxes. These events can also exert controls on insect outbreaks, which may create marked changes in stream characteristics. The invasive Gypsy Moth (Lymantria dispar dispar) experiences episodic infestations based on extreme climatic conditions within the northeastern U.S. In most years, gypsy moth populations are kept in check by diseases. In 2016 - after successive years of unusually warm, dry spring and summer weather -gypsy moth caterpillars defoliated over half of Rhode Island's 160,000 forested ha. No defoliation of this magnitude had occurred for more than 30 years. We examined one RI headwater stream's response to the defoliation event in 2016 compared with comparable data in 2014 and 2015. Stream temperature and flow was gauged continuously by USGS and dissolved oxygen (DO) was measured with a YSI EXO2 sonde every 30 minutes during a series of deployments in the spring, summer and fall from 2014-2016. We used the single station, open channel method to estimate stream metabolism metrics. We also assessed local climate and stream temperature data from 2009-2016. We observed changes in stream responses during the defoliation event that suggest changes in ET, solar radiation and heat flux. Although the summer of 2016 had more drought stress (PDSI) than previous years, stream flow occurred throughout the summer, in contrast to several years with lower drought stress when stream flow ceased. Air temperature in 2016 was similar to prior years, but stream temperature was substantially higher than the prior seven years, likely due to the loss of canopy shading. DO declined dramatically in 2016 compared to prior years - more than the rising stream temperatures would indicate. Gross Primary Productivity was significantly higher during the year of the defoliation, indicating more total fixation of inorganic carbon from photo-autotrophs. In 2016, Ecosystem Respiration was also higher and Net Ecosystem Productivity indicated it is a heterotrophic stream. Extreme events and fluctuations in climate patterns in the region are expected to increase suggesting that further work on the effects of insect defoliation on forested streams is warranted.

A reconstruction of sea surface temperature variability in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico from 1734 to 2008 C.E. using cross-dated Sr/Ca records from the coral Siderastrea siderea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

DeLong, Kristine L.; Flannery, Jennifer A.; Poore, Richard Z.; Quinn, Terrence M.; Maupin, Christopher R.; Lin, Ke; Shen, Chuan-Chou

2014-05-01

This study uses skeletal variations in coral Sr/Ca from three Siderastrea siderea coral colonies within the Dry Tortugas National Park in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico (24°42'N, 82°48'W) to reconstruct monthly sea surface temperature (SST) variations from 1734 to 2008 Common Era (C.E.). Calibration and verification of the replicated coral Sr/Ca-SST reconstruction with local, regional, and historical temperature records reveals that this proxy-temperature relationship is stable back to 1879 C.E. The coral SST reconstruction contains robust interannual ( 2.0°C) and multidecadal variability ( 1.5°C) for the past 274 years, the latter of which does not covary with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. Winter SST extremes are more variable than summer SST extremes (±2.2°C versus ±1.6°C, 2σ) suggesting that Loop Current transport in the winter dominates variability on interannual and longer time scales. Summer SST maxima are increasing (+1.0°C for 274 years, σMC = ±0.5°C, 2σ), whereas winter SST minima contain no significant trend. Colder decades ( 1.5°C) during the Little Ice Age (LIA) do not coincide with decades of sunspot minima. The coral SST reconstruction contains similar variability to temperature reconstructions from the northern Gulf of Mexico (planktic foraminifer Mg/Ca) and the Caribbean Sea (coral Sr/Ca) suggesting areal reductions in the Western Hemisphere Warm Pool during the LIA. Mean summer coral SST extremes post-1985 C.E. (29.9°C) exceeds the long-term summer average (29.2°C for 1734-2008 C.E.), yet the warming trend after 1985 C.E. (0.04°C for 24 years, σMC = ±0.5, 2σ) is not significant, whereas Caribbean coral Sr/Ca studies contain a warming trend for this interval.

Proxy-based reconstruction of erythemal UV doses over Estonia for 1955 2004

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eerme, K.; Veismann, U.; Lätt, S.

2006-08-01

A proxy-based reconstruction of the erythemally-weighted UV doses for 1955-2004 has been performed for the Tartu-Tõravere Meteorological Station (58°16' N, 26°28' E, 70 m a.s.l.) site. The pyrheliometer-measured daily sum of direct irradiance on partly cloudy and clear days, and the pyranometer-measured daily sum of global irradiance on overcast days were used as the cloudiness influence related proxies. The TOMS ozone data have been used for detecting the daily deviations from the climatic value (averaged annual cycle). In 1998-2004, the biases between the measured and reconstructed daily doses in 55.5% of the cases were within ±10% and in 83.5% of the cases within ±20%, on average. In the summer half-year these amounts were 62% and 88%, respectively. In most years the results for longer intervals did not differ significantly, if no correction was made for the daily deviations of total ozone from its climatic value. The annual and summer half-yearly erythemal doses (contributing, on average, 89% of the annual value) agreed within ±2%, except for the years after major volcanic eruptions and one extremely fine weather year (2002). Using the daily relative sunshine duration as a proxy without detailed correction for atmospheric turbidity results in biases of 2-4% in the summer half-yearly dose in the years after major volcanic eruptions and a few other years of high atmospheric turbidity. The year-to-year variations of the summer half-yearly erythemal dose in 1955-2004 were found to be within 92-111% relative to their average value. Exclusion of eight extreme years reduces this range for the remaining to 95-105.5%. Due to the quasi-periodic alternation of wet and dry periods, the interval of cloudy summers 1976-1993 regularly manifests summer half-yearly erythemal dose values lower than the 1955-2004 average. Since 1996/1997 midwinters have been darker than on average.

Responses of gas-exchange rates and water relations to annual fluctuations of weather in three species of urban street trees.

PubMed

Osone, Yoko; Kawarasaki, Satoko; Ishida, Atsushi; Kikuchi, Satoshi; Shimizu, Akari; Yazaki, Kenichi; Aikawa, Shin-Ichi; Yamaguchi, Masahiro; Izuta, Takeshi; Matsumoto, Genki I

2014-10-01

The frequency of extreme weather has been rising in recent years. A 3-year study of street trees was undertaken in Tokyo to determine whether: (i) street trees suffer from severe water stress in unusually hot summer; (ii) species respond differently to such climatic fluctuations; and (iii) street trees are also affected by nitrogen (N) deficiency, photoinhibition and aerosol pollution. During the study period (2010-12), midsummers of 2010 and 2012 were unusually hot (2.4-2.8 °C higher maximum temperature than the long-term mean) and dry (6-56% precipitation of the mean). In all species, street trees exhibited substantially decreased photosynthetic rate in the extremely hot summer in 2012 compared with the average summer in 2011. However, because of a more conservative stomatal regulation (stomatal closure at higher leaf water potential) in the hot summer, apparent symptoms of hydraulic failure were not observed in street trees even in 2012. Compared with Prunus × yedoensis and Zelkova serrata, Ginkgo biloba, a gymnosperm, was high in stomatal conductance and midday leaf water potential even under street conditions in the unusually hot summer, suggesting that the species had higher drought resistance than the other species and was less susceptible to urban street conditions. This lower susceptibility might be ascribed to the combination of higher soil-to-leaf hydraulic conductance and more conservative water use. Aside from meteorological conditions, N deficiency affected street trees significantly, whereas photoinhibition and aerosol pollution had little effect. The internal CO2 and δ(13)C suggested that both water and N limited the net photosynthetic rate of street trees simultaneously, but water was more limiting. From these results, we concluded that the potential risk of hydraulic failure caused by climatic extremes could be low in urban street trees in temperate regions. However, the size of the safety margin might be different between species. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Evaluation of the HadGEM3-A simulations in view of detection and attribution of human influence on extreme events in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vautard, Robert; Christidis, Nikolaos; Ciavarella, Andrew; Alvarez-Castro, Carmen; Bellprat, Omar; Christiansen, Bo; Colfescu, Ioana; Cowan, Tim; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco; Eden, Jonathan; Hauser, Mathias; Hegerl, Gabriele; Hempelmann, Nils; Klehmet, Katharina; Lott, Fraser; Nangini, Cathy; Orth, René; Radanovics, Sabine; Seneviratne, Sonia I.; van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan; Stott, Peter; Tett, Simon; Wilcox, Laura; Yiou, Pascal

2018-04-01

A detailed analysis is carried out to assess the HadGEM3-A global atmospheric model skill in simulating extreme temperatures, precipitation and storm surges in Europe in the view of their attribution to human influence. The analysis is performed based on an ensemble of 15 atmospheric simulations forced with observed sea surface temperature of the 54 year period 1960-2013. These simulations, together with dual simulations without human influence in the forcing, are intended to be used in weather and climate event attribution. The analysis investigates the main processes leading to extreme events, including atmospheric circulation patterns, their links with temperature extremes, land-atmosphere and troposphere-stratosphere interactions. It also compares observed and simulated variability, trends and generalized extreme value theory parameters for temperature and precipitation. One of the most striking findings is the ability of the model to capture North-Atlantic atmospheric weather regimes as obtained from a cluster analysis of sea level pressure fields. The model also reproduces the main observed weather patterns responsible for temperature and precipitation extreme events. However, biases are found in many physical processes. Slightly excessive drying may be the cause of an overestimated summer interannual variability and too intense heat waves, especially in central/northern Europe. However, this does not seem to hinder proper simulation of summer temperature trends. Cold extremes appear well simulated, as well as the underlying blocking frequency and stratosphere-troposphere interactions. Extreme precipitation amounts are overestimated and too variable. The atmospheric conditions leading to storm surges were also examined in the Baltics region. There, simulated weather conditions appear not to be leading to strong enough storm surges, but winds were found in very good agreement with reanalyses. The performance in reproducing atmospheric weather patterns indicates that biases mainly originate from local and regional physical processes. This makes local bias adjustment meaningful for climate change attribution.

Climate Prediction Center: Seasonal Drought Outlook

Science.gov Websites

transitions to summer, however, these dry incipient conditions leave this region vulnerable to flash drought development should an extended period of hot, dry weather occur. Across the West, drought conditions persisted climatology. Despite the anticipated onset of monsoon thunderstorms over the Southwest during mid-summer, dry

Investigation of the 2006 Drought and 2007 Flood Extremes at the Southern Great Plains Through an Integrative Analysis of Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dong, Xiquan; Xi, Baike; Kennedy, Aaron; Feng, Zhe; Entin, Jared K.; Houser, Paul R.; Schiffer, Robert A.; LEucyer, Tristan; Olson, William S.; Hsu, Kuo-lin;

The Age of Terrestrial Carbon Export and Rainfall Intensity in a Temperate River Headwater System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tittel, J.; Büttner, O.; Freier, K.; Heiser, A.; Sudbrack, R.; Ollesch, G.

2013-12-01

Riverine dissolved organic carbon (DOC) supports the production of estuaries and coastal ecosystems, constituting one of the most actively recycled pools of the global carbon cycle. A substantial proportion of DOC entering oceans is highly aged, but its origins remain unclear. Significant fluxes of old DOC have never been observed in temperate headwaters where terrestrial imports take place. Here, we studied the radiocarbon age of DOC in three streams draining forested headwater catchments of the river Mulde (Ore Mountains, Germany). We found modern DOC at moderately dry and moderately wet conditions as well as at high discharges during snowmelt. Old groundwater carbon contributed to stream DOC during the summer drought, although the yield was negligible. However, in a four-week summer precipitation event DOC aged at between 160 and 270 years was delivered into the watershed. In one stream, the DOC was modern but depleted in radiocarbon compared to other hydrological conditions. The yield was substantial and corresponded to 20 to 52% of the annual DOC yields in wet and dry years, respectively. Time-integrating samples of a downstream reservoir also revealed modern DOC ages under moderate conditions and old DOC from the rainfall event. Earlier studies suggested that increasing precipitation escalates the contribution of modern DOC from topsoil layers to surface runoff. Our results demonstrate a step change occurring if rainfall intensities increase and become extreme; then the consequences lead to the mobilization of old carbon in exceptionally high concentrations. The runoff/precipitation ratios of rainfall events indicated that during extreme events upland areas of the catchments were hydrologically connected to the stream and upland DOC was activated. Furthermore, the analysis of long-term data suggested that the DOC export in extreme precipitation events added to the annual yield and was not compensated for by lower exports in remaining periods. We conclude that climate change, along with additional processes associated with human activities, channels old soil carbon into more rapidly cycled carbon pools of the hydrosphere.

Characterizing differences in precipitation regimes of extreme wet and dry years: implications for climate change experiments.

PubMed

Knapp, Alan K; Hoover, David L; Wilcox, Kevin R; Avolio, Meghan L; Koerner, Sally E; La Pierre, Kimberly J; Loik, Michael E; Luo, Yiqi; Sala, Osvaldo E; Smith, Melinda D

2015-02-03

Climate change is intensifying the hydrologic cycle and is expected to increase the frequency of extreme wet and dry years. Beyond precipitation amount, extreme wet and dry years may differ in other ways, such as the number of precipitation events, event size, and the time between events. We assessed 1614 long-term (100 year) precipitation records from around the world to identify key attributes of precipitation regimes, besides amount, that distinguish statistically extreme wet from extreme dry years. In general, in regions where mean annual precipitation (MAP) exceeded 1000 mm, precipitation amounts in extreme wet and dry years differed from average years by ~40% and 30%, respectively. The magnitude of these deviations increased to >60% for dry years and to >150% for wet years in arid regions (MAP<500 mm). Extreme wet years were primarily distinguished from average and extreme dry years by the presence of multiple extreme (large) daily precipitation events (events >99th percentile of all events); these occurred twice as often in extreme wet years compared to average years. In contrast, these large precipitation events were rare in extreme dry years. Less important for distinguishing extreme wet from dry years were mean event size and frequency, or the number of dry days between events. However, extreme dry years were distinguished from average years by an increase in the number of dry days between events. These precipitation regime attributes consistently differed between extreme wet and dry years across 12 major terrestrial ecoregions from around the world, from deserts to the tropics. Thus, we recommend that climate change experiments and model simulations incorporate these differences in key precipitation regime attributes, as well as amount into treatments. This will allow experiments to more realistically simulate extreme precipitation years and more accurately assess the ecological consequences. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Spatial and temporal variation in daily temperature indices in summer and winter seasons over India (1969-2012)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, Naresh; Jaswal, A. K.; Mohapatra, M.; Kore, P. A.

2017-08-01

Spatial and temporal variations in summer and winter extreme temperature indices are studied by using daily maximum and minimum temperatures data from 227 surface meteorological stations well distributed over India for the period 1969-2012. For this purpose, time series for six extreme temperature indices namely, hot days (HD), very hot days (VHD), extremely hot days (EHD), cold nights (CN), very cold nights (VCN), and extremely cold nights (ECN) are calculated for all the stations. In addition, time series for mean extreme temperature indices of summer and winter seasons are also analyzed. Study reveals high variability in spatial distribution of threshold temperatures of extreme temperature indices over the country. In general, increasing trends are observed in summer hot days indices and decreasing trends in winter cold night indices over most parts of the country. The results obtained in this study indicate warming in summer maximum and winter minimum temperatures over India. Averaged over India, trends in summer hot days indices HD, VHD, and EHD are significantly increasing (+1.0, +0.64, and +0.32 days/decade, respectively) and winter cold night indices CN, VCN, and ECN are significantly decreasing (-0.93, -0.47, and -0.15 days/decade, respectively). Also, it is observed that the impact of extreme temperature is higher along the west coast for summer and east coast for winter.

Holocene seasonal variability inferred from multiple proxy records from Crevice Lake, Yellowstone National Park, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Whitlock, Cathy; Dean, Walter E.; Fritz, Sherilyn C.; Stevens, Lora R.; Stone, Jeffery R.; Power, Mitchell J.; Rosenbaum, Joseph R.; Pierce, Kenneth L.; Bracht-Flyr, Brandi B.

2012-01-01

A 9400-yr-old record from Crevice Lake, a semi-closed alkaline lake in northern Yellowstone National Park, was analyzed for pollen, charcoal, geochemistry, mineralogy, diatoms, and stable isotopes to develop a nuanced understanding of Holocene environmental history in a region of northern Rocky Mountains that receives both summer and winter precipitation. The limited surface area, conical bathymetry, and deep water (> 31 m) of Crevice Lake create oxygen-deficient conditions in the hypolimnion and preserve annually laminated sediment (varves) for much of the record. Pollen data indicate that the watershed supported a closed Pinus-dominated forest and low fire frequency prior to 8200 cal yr BP, followed by open parkland until 2600 cal yr BP, and open mixed-conifer forest thereafter. Fire activity shifted from infrequent stand-replacing fires initially to frequent surface fires in the middle Holocene and stand-replacing events in recent centuries. Low values of δ18O suggest high winter precipitation in the early Holocene, followed by steadily drier conditions after 8500 cal yr BP. Carbonate-rich sediments before 5000 cal yr BP imply warmer summer conditions than after 5000 cal yr BP. High values of molybdenum (Mo), uranium (U), and sulfur (S) indicate anoxic bottom-waters before 8000 cal yr BP, between 4400 and 3900 cal yr BP, and after 2400 cal yr BP. The diatom record indicates extensive water-column mixing in spring and early summer through much of the Holocene, but a period between 2200 and 800 cal yr BP had strong summer stratification, phosphate limitation, and oxygen-deficient bottom waters. Together, the proxy data suggest wet winters, protracted springs, and warm effectively wet summers in the early Holocene and less snowpack, cool springs, warm dry summers in the middle Holocene. In the late Holocene, the region and lake experienced extreme changes in winter, spring, and summer conditions, with particularly short springs and dry summers and winters during the Roman Warm Period (~ 2000 cal yr BP) and Medieval Climate Anomaly (1200–800 cal yr BP). Long springs and mild summers occurred during the Little Ice Age, and these conditions persist to the present. Although the proxy data indicate effectively wet summer conditions in the early Holocene and drier conditions in the middle and late Holocene, none point specifically to changes in summer precipitation as the cause. Instead, summer conditions were governed by multi-seasonal controls on effective moisture that operated over multiple time scales.

Changes in Extremely Hot Summers over the Global Land Area under Various Warming Targets.

PubMed

Wang, Lei; Huang, Jianbin; Luo, Yong; Yao, Yao; Zhao, Zongci

2015-01-01

Summer temperature extremes over the global land area were investigated by comparing 26 models of the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) with observations from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) and the Climate Research Unit (CRU). Monthly data of the observations and models were averaged for each season, and statistics were calculated for individual models before averaging them to obtain ensemble means. The summers with temperature anomalies (relative to 1951-1980) exceeding 3σ (σ is based on the local internal variability) are defined as "extremely hot". The models well reproduced the statistical characteristics evolution, and partly captured the spatial distributions of historical summer temperature extremes. If the global mean temperature increases 2°C relative to the pre-industrial level, "extremely hot" summers are projected to occur over nearly 40% of the land area (multi-model ensemble mean projection). Summers that exceed 5σ warming are projected to occur over approximately 10% of the global land area, which were rarely observed during the reference period. Scenarios reaching warming levels of 3°C to 5°C were also analyzed. After exceeding the 5°C warming target, "extremely hot" summers are projected to occur throughout the entire global land area, and summers that exceed 5σ warming would become common over 70% of the land area. In addition, the areas affected by "extremely hot" summers are expected to rapidly expand by more than 25%/°C as the global mean temperature increases by up to 3°C before slowing to less than 16%/°C as the temperature continues to increase by more than 3°C. The area that experiences summers with warming of 5σ or more above the warming target of 2°C is likely to maintain rapid expansion of greater than 17%/°C. To reduce the impacts and damage from severely hot summers, the global mean temperature increase should remain low.

An abrupt centennial-scale drought event and mid-holocene climate change patterns in monsoon marginal zones of East Asia.

PubMed

Li, Yu; Wang, Nai'ang; Zhang, Chengqi

2014-01-01

The mid-latitudes of East Asia are characterized by the interaction between the Asian summer monsoon and the westerly winds. Understanding long-term climate change in the marginal regions of the Asian monsoon is critical for understanding the millennial-scale interactions between the Asian monsoon and the westerly winds. Abrupt climate events are always associated with changes in large-scale circulation patterns; therefore, investigations into abrupt climate changes provide clues for responses of circulation patterns to extreme climate events. In this paper, we examined the time scale and mid-Holocene climatic background of an abrupt dry mid-Holocene event in the Shiyang River drainage basin in the northwest margin of the Asian monsoon. Mid-Holocene lacustrine records were collected from the middle reaches and the terminal lake of the basin. Using radiocarbon and OSL ages, a centennial-scale drought event, which is characterized by a sand layer in lacustrine sediments both from the middle and lower reaches of the basin, was absolutely dated between 8.0-7.0 cal kyr BP. Grain size data suggest an abrupt decline in lake level and a dry environment in the middle reaches of the basin during the dry interval. Previous studies have shown mid-Holocene drought events in other places of monsoon marginal zones; however, their chronologies are not strong enough to study the mechanism. According to the absolutely dated records, we proposed a new hypothesis that the mid-Holocene dry interval can be related to the weakening Asian summer monsoon and the relatively arid environment in arid Central Asia. Furthermore, abrupt dry climatic events are directly linked to the basin-wide effective moisture change in semi-arid and arid regions. Effective moisture is affected by basin-wide precipitation, evapotranspiration, lake surface evaporation and other geographical settings. As a result, the time scales of the dry interval could vary according to locations due to different geographical features.

An Abrupt Centennial-Scale Drought Event and Mid-Holocene Climate Change Patterns in Monsoon Marginal Zones of East Asia

PubMed Central

Li, Yu; Wang, Nai'ang; Zhang, Chengqi

2014-01-01

The mid-latitudes of East Asia are characterized by the interaction between the Asian summer monsoon and the westerly winds. Understanding long-term climate change in the marginal regions of the Asian monsoon is critical for understanding the millennial-scale interactions between the Asian monsoon and the westerly winds. Abrupt climate events are always associated with changes in large-scale circulation patterns; therefore, investigations into abrupt climate changes provide clues for responses of circulation patterns to extreme climate events. In this paper, we examined the time scale and mid-Holocene climatic background of an abrupt dry mid-Holocene event in the Shiyang River drainage basin in the northwest margin of the Asian monsoon. Mid-Holocene lacustrine records were collected from the middle reaches and the terminal lake of the basin. Using radiocarbon and OSL ages, a centennial-scale drought event, which is characterized by a sand layer in lacustrine sediments both from the middle and lower reaches of the basin, was absolutely dated between 8.0–7.0 cal kyr BP. Grain size data suggest an abrupt decline in lake level and a dry environment in the middle reaches of the basin during the dry interval. Previous studies have shown mid-Holocene drought events in other places of monsoon marginal zones; however, their chronologies are not strong enough to study the mechanism. According to the absolutely dated records, we proposed a new hypothesis that the mid-Holocene dry interval can be related to the weakening Asian summer monsoon and the relatively arid environment in arid Central Asia. Furthermore, abrupt dry climatic events are directly linked to the basin-wide effective moisture change in semi-arid and arid regions. Effective moisture is affected by basin-wide precipitation, evapotranspiration, lake surface evaporation and other geographical settings. As a result, the time scales of the dry interval could vary according to locations due to different geographical features. PMID:24599259

The impact of anthropogenic land use and land cover change on regional climate extremes.

PubMed

Findell, Kirsten L; Berg, Alexis; Gentine, Pierre; Krasting, John P; Lintner, Benjamin R; Malyshev, Sergey; Santanello, Joseph A; Shevliakova, Elena

2017-10-20

Land surface processes modulate the severity of heat waves, droughts, and other extreme events. However, models show contrasting effects of land surface changes on extreme temperatures. Here, we use an earth system model from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory to investigate regional impacts of land use and land cover change on combined extremes of temperature and humidity, namely aridity and moist enthalpy, quantities central to human physiological experience of near-surface climate. The model's near-surface temperature response to deforestation is consistent with recent observations, and conversion of mid-latitude natural forests to cropland and pastures is accompanied by an increase in the occurrence of hot-dry summers from once-in-a-decade to every 2-3 years. In the tropics, long time-scale oceanic variability precludes determination of how much of a small, but significant, increase in moist enthalpy throughout the year stems from the model's novel representation of historical patterns of wood harvesting, shifting cultivation, and regrowth of secondary vegetation and how much is forced by internal variability within the tropical oceans.

Within-summer variation in out-of-hospital cardiac arrest due to extremely long sunshine duration.

PubMed

Onozuka, Daisuke; Hagihara, Akihito

2017-03-15

Although several studies have reported the impacts of extremely high temperatures on cardiovascular diseases, no studies have examined whether variation in out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) due to extremely long sunshine duration changes during the summer. We obtained daily data on all cases of OHCA and weather variations for all 47 prefectures of Japan during the summer (June to September) between 2005 and 2014. A distributed lag non-linear model combined with a quasi-Poisson regression model was used to estimate within-summer variation in OHCA due to extremely long sunshine duration for each prefecture. Then, multivariate random-effects meta-analysis was performed to derive overall effect estimates of sunshine duration at the national level. A total of 166,496 OHCAs of presumed cardiac origin met the inclusion criteria. The minimum morbidity percentile (MMP) was the 0th percentile of sunshine duration at the national level. The overall cumulative relative risk (RR) at the 99th percentile vs. the MMP was 1.15 (95% CI: 1.05-1.27) during the summer. The effect of extremely long sunshine duration on OHCA in early summer was acute and did not persist, whereas an identical effect was observed in late summer, but it was delayed and lasted for several days. During summer periods, excessive sunshine duration could increase the risk of OHCA. Timely preventive measures to reduce the OHCA risk due to extremely long sunshine duration are important in early summer, whereas these measures could include a wider time window of several days to reduce the risk in late summer. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Changes in duration of dry and wet spells associated with air temperatures in Russia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ye, Hengchun

2018-03-01

This study uses daily precipitation records from 517 Russian stations (1966-2010) to examine the relationships between continuous dry and wet day duration and surface air temperature for all four seasons. The study found that both mean and extreme durations of dry periods increase with air temperature at about 7.0% (0.24 day/°C) and 7.7% (0.86 day/°C) respectively, while those of wet periods decrease at about 1.3% (-0.02 day/°C) and 2.2% (-0.10 day/°C) respectively averaged over the entire study region during summer. An increase in the duration of dry periods with higher air temperature is also found in other seasons at locations with a mean seasonal air temperature of about -5 °C or higher. Opposite relationships of shorter durations of dry periods and longer wet periods associated with higher air temperature are observed over the northern part of the study region in winter. The changes in durations of both dry and wet periods have significant correlations with the changes in total dry and wet days but are about 2.5 times higher for dry periods and 0.5 times lower for wet periods. The study also found that locations with longer durations of dry periods experience faster rates of increase in air temperature, suggesting the likelihood of exacerbating drought severity in drier and/or warmer locations for all seasons.

Changes in Extremely Hot Summers over the Global Land Area under Various Warming Targets

PubMed Central

Wang, Lei; Huang, Jianbin; Luo, Yong; Yao, Yao; Zhao, Zongci

2015-01-01

Summer temperature extremes over the global land area were investigated by comparing 26 models of the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) with observations from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) and the Climate Research Unit (CRU). Monthly data of the observations and models were averaged for each season, and statistics were calculated for individual models before averaging them to obtain ensemble means. The summers with temperature anomalies (relative to 1951–1980) exceeding 3σ (σ is based on the local internal variability) are defined as “extremely hot”. The models well reproduced the statistical characteristics evolution, and partly captured the spatial distributions of historical summer temperature extremes. If the global mean temperature increases 2°C relative to the pre-industrial level, “extremely hot” summers are projected to occur over nearly 40% of the land area (multi-model ensemble mean projection). Summers that exceed 5σ warming are projected to occur over approximately 10% of the global land area, which were rarely observed during the reference period. Scenarios reaching warming levels of 3°C to 5°C were also analyzed. After exceeding the 5°C warming target, “extremely hot” summers are projected to occur throughout the entire global land area, and summers that exceed 5σ warming would become common over 70% of the land area. In addition, the areas affected by “extremely hot” summers are expected to rapidly expand by more than 25%/°C as the global mean temperature increases by up to 3°C before slowing to less than 16%/°C as the temperature continues to increase by more than 3°C. The area that experiences summers with warming of 5σ or more above the warming target of 2°C is likely to maintain rapid expansion of greater than 17%/°C. To reduce the impacts and damage from severely hot summers, the global mean temperature increase should remain low. PMID:26090931

Standard for Ground Vehicle Mobility

DTIC Science & Technology

2005-02-01

Zone Dry climates (2), humid mesothermal (3), See Appendix A humid microthermal (4), undifferentiated highland (6) Condition Dry, wet, snow See...represent the Dry, the Humid Mesothermal, and the Humid Microthermal climate zones, respectively. Scenarios ERDC-GSL was sponsored by WARSIM to...Coast D. Humid Microthermal Climates Humid Continental, Warm Summer, Humid Continental, Cool Summer, Sub-Arctic E. Polar Climates Tundra, Ice Caps F

High Arctic summer warming tracked by increased Cassiope tetragona growth in the world's northernmost polar desert.

PubMed

Weijers, Stef; Buchwal, Agata; Blok, Daan; Löffler, Jörg; Elberling, Bo

2017-11-01

Rapid climate warming has resulted in shrub expansion, mainly of erect deciduous shrubs in the Low Arctic, but the more extreme, sparsely vegetated, cold and dry High Arctic is generally considered to remain resistant to such shrub expansion in the next decades. Dwarf shrub dendrochronology may reveal climatological causes of past changes in growth, but is hindered at many High Arctic sites by short and fragmented instrumental climate records. Moreover, only few High Arctic shrub chronologies cover the recent decade of substantial warming. This study investigated the climatic causes of growth variability of the evergreen dwarf shrub Cassiope tetragona between 1927 and 2012 in the northernmost polar desert at 83°N in North Greenland. We analysed climate-growth relationships over the period with available instrumental data (1950-2012) between a 102-year-long C. tetragona shoot length chronology and instrumental climate records from the three nearest meteorological stations, gridded climate data, and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Arctic Oscillation (AO) indices. July extreme maximum temperatures (JulT emx ), as measured at Alert, Canada, June NAO, and previous October AO, together explained 41% of the observed variance in annual C. tetragona growth and likely represent in situ summer temperatures. JulT emx explained 27% and was reconstructed back to 1927. The reconstruction showed relatively high growing season temperatures in the early to mid-twentieth century, as well as warming in recent decades. The rapid growth increase in C. tetragona shrubs in response to recent High Arctic summer warming shows that recent and future warming might promote an expansion of this evergreen dwarf shrub, mainly through densification of existing shrub patches, at High Arctic sites with sufficient winter snow cover and ample water supply during summer from melting snow and ice as well as thawing permafrost, contrasting earlier notions of limited shrub growth sensitivity to summer warming in the High Arctic. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

A reconstruction of sea surface temperature variability in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico from 1734 to 2008 C.E. using cross-dated Sr/Ca records from the coral Siderastrea siderea

USGS Publications Warehouse

DeLong, Kristine L.; Maupin, Christopher R.; Flannery, Jennifer A.; Quinn, Terrence M.; Shen, CC

2014-01-01

This study uses skeletal variations in coral Sr/Ca from three Siderastrea siderea coral colonies within the Dry Tortugas National Park in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico (24°42′N, 82°48′W) to reconstruct monthly sea surface temperature (SST) variations from 1734 to 2008 Common Era (C.E.). Calibration and verification of the replicated coral Sr/Ca-SST reconstruction with local, regional, and historical temperature records reveals that this proxy-temperature relationship is stable back to 1879 C.E. The coral SST reconstruction contains robust interannual (~2.0°C) and multidecadal variability (~1.5°C) for the past 274 years, the latter of which does not covary with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. Winter SST extremes are more variable than summer SST extremes (±2.2°C versus ±1.6°C, 2σ) suggesting that Loop Current transport in the winter dominates variability on interannual and longer time scales. Summer SST maxima are increasing (+1.0°C for 274 years, σMC = ±0.5°C, 2σ), whereas winter SST minima contain no significant trend. Colder decades (~1.5°C) during the Little Ice Age (LIA) do not coincide with decades of sunspot minima. The coral SST reconstruction contains similar variability to temperature reconstructions from the northern Gulf of Mexico (planktic foraminifer Mg/Ca) and the Caribbean Sea (coral Sr/Ca) suggesting areal reductions in the Western Hemisphere Warm Pool during the LIA. Mean summer coral SST extremes post-1985 C.E. (29.9°C) exceeds the long-term summer average (29.2°C for 1734–2008 C.E.), yet the warming trend after 1985 C.E. (0.04°C for 24 years, σMC = ±0.5, 2σ) is not significant, whereas Caribbean coral Sr/Ca studies contain a warming trend for this interval.

Oak Forest Responses to Episodic-Seasonal-Drought, Chronic Multi-year Precipitation Change and Acute Drought Manipulations in a Region With Deep Soils and High Precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hanson, Paul J.; Wullschleger, Stan D.; Todd, Donald E.; Auge, Robert M.; Froberg, Mats; Johnson, Dale W.

2010-05-01

Implications of episodic-seasonal drought (extremely dry late summers), chronic multi-year precipitation manipulations (±33 percent over 12 years) and acute drought (-100 percent over 3 years) were evaluated for the response of vegetation and biogeochemical cycles for an upland-oak forest. The Quercus-Acer forest is located in eastern Tennessee on deep acidic soils with mean annual temperatures of 14.2 °C and abundant precipitation (1352 mm y-1). The multi-year observations and chronic manipulations were conducted from 1993 through 2005 using understory throughfall collection troughs and redistribution gutters and pipes. Acute manipulations of dominant canopy trees (Quercus prinus; Liriodendron tulipifera) were conducted from 2003 through 2005 using full understory tents. Regional and severe late-summer droughts were produced reduced stand water use and photosynthetic carbon gain as expected. Likewise, seedlings and saplings exhibited reduced survival and cumulative growth reductions. Conversely, multi-year chronic increases or decreases in precipitation and associated soil water deficits did not reduce large tree basal area growth for the tree species present. The resilience of canopy trees to chronic-change was the result of a disconnect between carbon allocation to tree growth (an early-season phenomenon) and late-season drought occurrence. Acute precipitation exclusion from the largest canopy trees also produced limited physiological responses and minimal cumulative growth reductions. Lateral root water sources were removed through trenching and could not explain the lack of response to extreme soil drying. Therefore, deep rooting the primary mechanism for large-tree resilience to severe drought. Extensive trench-based assessments of rooting depth suggested that ‘deep' water supplies were being obtained from limited numbers of deep fine roots. Observations of carbon stocks in organic horizons demonstrated accumulation with precipitation reductions and drying, but no change in mineral soil carbon pools attributable to changing precipitation. Measured changes in nitrogen and other element pools suggested that long term immobilization of elements with chronic drying would lead to reduced growth, but that deep rooting access to the key base cations would moderate such effects by providing a source of minerals to be cycled in near surface soils. Cumulative changes in canopy foliar production were evident over time showing sustained or even increased production with chronic drying. This unexpected response is hypothesized to result from the retention of nutrients in highly-rooted surface horizons made available for plant uptake during spring mineralization.

Diagnosing the Nature of Land-Atmosphere Coupling During the 2006-7 Dry/Wet Extremes in the U. S. Southern Great Plains

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Santanello, Joseph A.; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.; Kennedy, Aaron D.; Kumar, Sujay; Dong, Xiquan

2011-01-01

Land-atmosphere (L-A) interactions play a critical role in determining the diurnal evolution of land surface and planetary boundary layer (PBL) temperature and moisture states and fluxes. In turn, these interactions regulate the strength of the connection between surface moisture and precipitation in a coupled system. To address deficiencies in numerical weather prediction and climate models due to improper treatment of L-A interactions, recent studies have focused on development of diagnostics to quantify the strength and accuracy of the land-PBL coupling at the process-level. In this study, a diagnosis of the nature and impacts of local land-atmosphere coupling (LoCo) during dry and wet extreme conditions is presented using a combination of models and observations during the summers of2006-7 in the U.S. Southern Great Plains. Specifically, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model has been coupled to NASA's Land Information System (LIS), which provides a flexible and high resolution representation and initialization of land surface physics and states. A range of diagnostics exploring the links and feedbacks between soil moisture and precipitation are examined for the dry/wet regimes of this region, along with the behavior and accuracy of different land-PBL scheme couplings under these conditions. Results demonstrate how LoCo diagnostics can be applied to coupled model components in the context of their integrated impacts on the process-chain connecting the land surface to the PBL and support of hydrological anomalies.

Climatic limits on foliar growth during major droughts in the Southwestern U.S.A.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Weiss, Jeremy L.; Betancourt, Julio L.; Overpeck, Jonathan T.

2012-01-01

Pronounced droughts during the 1950s and 2000s in the Southwestern U.S.A. (SW) provide an opportunity to compare mesoscale ecosystem responses to anomalously dry conditions before and during the regional warming that started in the late 1970s. This year-round warming has produced fewer cool season freezes, losses in regional snowpack, an 8-10 day advance in spring onset, and hotter summers, all of which should affect vegetation differently across seasons and elevations. Here, we examine indices that represent climatic limits on foliar growth for both drought periods, and evaluate these indices for areas that experienced tree mortality during the 2000s drought. Relative to the 1950s drought, warmer conditions during the 2000s drought decreased the occurrence of temperatures too low for foliar growth at lower elevations in winter and higher elevations in summer. Higher vapor pressure deficits (VPDs) largely driven by warmer temperatures in the more recent drought were more limiting to foliar growth from spring through summer at lower and middle elevations. At many locations where tree mortality occurred during the 2000s drought, low-temperature constraints on foliar growth were extremely unlimiting, whereas VPD constraints were extremely limiting from early spring through late autumn. Our analysis shows that in physiographically complex regions like the SW, seasonality and elevational gradients are important for understanding vegetative responses to warming. It also suggests that continued warming will increase the degree to which VPD limits foliar growth during future droughts, and expand its reach to higher elevations and other seasons.

Sea surface temperature variability in the Gulf of Mexico from 1734-2008 CE: A reconstruction using cross-dated Sr/Ca records from the coral Siderastrea siderea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

DeLong, K. L.; Flannery, J. A.; Quinn, T. M.; Maupin, C. R.; Lin, K.; Shen, C.

2013-12-01

Sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the Gulf of Mexico impacts climate in Central and North America because the Gulf is a major source of moisture and is a source region for the Gulf Stream, which transports ocean heat northward. Here we use skeletal variations in coral Sr/Ca from three Siderastrea siderea coral colonies within the Dry Tortugas National Park in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico (24°42'N, 82°48'W) to develop 274 years of monthly-resolved SST variations. The cross-dated chronology, determined by counting annual density bands and correlating Sr/Ca variations, is verified by four replicated high precision 230Th dates (×1.7-37 years, 2σ). Calibration and verification of our replicated coral Sr/Ca-SST reconstruction with Dry Tortugas SST (r = 0.98 and 0.55 for monthly and 36-month smoothed, respectively; 1992-2008 CE) and Key West, Florida surface air temperature (1895-2008 CE) measurements reveals similar covariance (r = 0.96 and 0.56 for monthly and 36-month smoothed, respectively). The absolute coral SST reconstruction is consistent with SST recorded at the Dry Tortugas lighthouse from 1879-1907 CE indicating that this coral Sr/Ca-SST relationship is stable on centennial time scales. The Sr/Ca-SST reconstruction reveals ~2.0°C interannual variability, ~1.5°C decadal fluctuations, and a 0.7°C warming trend for the past 274 years. Secular variability in our reconstruction is similar to approximately decadally resolved planktic foraminifer Mg/Ca records from the northern Gulf of Mexico. The coral Sr/Ca-SST reconstruction reveals colder decades (~1.5°C) suggesting a reduction in moisture and ocean heat flux from the Gulf of Mexico. We find winter extremes are more variable than summer extremes (×2.2°C vs. ×1.6°C, 2σ) with a stronger warming trend (1°C) in the summers suggesting continued warming may increase coral bleaching.

Ciliate diversity, community structure, and novel taxa in lakes of the McMurdo Dry Valleys, Antarctica.

PubMed

Xu, Yuan; Vick-Majors, Trista; Morgan-Kiss, Rachael; Priscu, John C; Amaral-Zettler, Linda

2014-10-01

We report an in-depth survey of next-generation DNA sequencing of ciliate diversity and community structure in two permanently ice-covered McMurdo Dry Valley lakes during the austral summer and autumn (November 2007 and March 2008). We tested hypotheses on the relationship between species richness and environmental conditions including environmental extremes, nutrient status, and day length. On the basis of the unique environment that exists in these high-latitude lakes, we expected that novel taxa would be present. Alpha diversity analyses showed that extreme conditions-that is, high salinity, low oxygen, and extreme changes in day length-did not impact ciliate richness; however, ciliate richness was 30% higher in samples with higher dissolved organic matter. Beta diversity analyses revealed that ciliate communities clustered by dissolved oxygen, depth, and salinity, but not by season (i.e., day length). The permutational analysis of variance test indicated that depth, dissolved oxygen, and salinity had significant influences on the ciliate community for the abundance matrices of resampled data, while lake and season were not significant. This result suggests that the vertical trends in dissolved oxygen concentration and salinity may play a critical role in structuring ciliate communities. A PCR-based strategy capitalizing on divergent eukaryotic V9 hypervariable region ribosomal RNA gene targets unveiled two new genera in these lakes. A novel taxon belonging to an unknown class most closely related to Cryptocaryon irritans was also inferred from separate gene phylogenies. © 2014 Marine Biological Laboratory.

Impact of Optimized land Surface Parameters on the Land-Atmosphere Coupling in WRF Simulations of Dry and Wet Extremes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kumar, Sujay; Santanello, Joseph; Peters-Lidard, Christa; Harrison, Ken

2011-01-01

Land-atmosphere (L-A) interactions play a critical role in determining the diurnal evolution of both planetary boundary layer (PBL) and land surface temperature and moisture budgets, as well as controlling feedbacks with clouds and precipitation that lead to the persistence of dry and wet regimes. Recent efforts to quantify the strength of L-A coupling in prediction models have produced diagnostics that integrate across both the land and PBL components of the system. In this study, we examine the impact of improved specification of land surface states, anomalies, and fluxes on coupled WRF forecasts during the summers of extreme dry (2006) and wet (2007) conditions in the U.S. Southern Great Plains. The improved land initialization and surface flux parameterizations are obtained through the use of a new optimization and uncertainty module in NASA's Land Information System (LIS-OPT), whereby parameter sets are calibrated in the Noah land surface model and classified according to the land cover and soil type mapping of the observations and the full domain. The impact of the calibrated parameters on the a) spin up of land surface states used as initial conditions, and b) heat and moisture fluxes of the coupled (LIS-WRF) simulations are then assessed in terms of ambient weather, PBL budgets, and precipitation along with L-A coupling diagnostics. In addition, the sensitivity of this approach to the period of calibration (dry, wet, normal) is investigated. Finally, tradeoffs of computational tractability and scientific validity (e.g.,. relating to the representation of the spatial dependence of parameters) and the feasibility of calibrating to multiple observational datasets are also discussed.

Diagnosing the Nature of Land-Atmosphere Coupling: A Case Study of Dry/Wet Extremes in the U. S. Southern Great Plains

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Santanello, Joseph A. Jr.; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.; Kennedy, Aaron; Kumar, Sujay V.

2012-01-01

Land-atmosphere (L-A) interactions play a critical role in determining the diurnal evolution of land surface and planetary boundary layer (PBL) temperature and moisture states and fluxes. In turn, these interactions regulate the strength of the connection between surface moisture and precipitation in a coupled system. To address model deficiencies, recent studies have focused on development of diagnostics to quantify the strength and accuracy of the land- PBL coupling at the process-level. In this paper, a diagnosis of the nature and impacts of local land-atmosphere coupling (LoCo) during dry and wet extreme conditions is presented using a combination of models and observations during the summers of 2006 and 2007 in the U.S. Southern Great Plains. A range of diagnostics exploring the links and feedbacks between soil moisture and precipitation are applied to the dry/wet regimes exhibited in this region, and in the process a thorough evaluation of nine different land-PBL scheme couplings is conducted under the umbrella of a high-resolution regional modeling testbed. Results show that the sign and magnitude of errors in land surface energy balance components are sensitive to the choice of land surface model, regime type, and running mode. In addition, LoCo diagnostics show that the sensitivity of L-A coupling is stronger towards the land during dry conditions, while the PBL scheme coupling becomes more important during the wet regime. Results also demonstrate how LoCo diagnostics can be applied to any modeling system (e.g. reanalysis products) in the context of their integrated impacts on the process-chain connecting the land surface to the PBL and in support of hydrological anomalies.

Diagnosing the Nature of Land-Atmosphere Coupling: A Case Study of Dry/Wet Extremes in the U.S. Southern Great Plains

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Santanello, Joseph A., Jr.; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.; Kennedy, Aaron; Kumar, Sujay V.

2012-01-01

Land-atmosphere (L-A) interactions play a critical role in determining the diurnal evolution of land surface and planetary boundary layer (PBL) temperature and moisture states and fluxes. In turn, these interactions regulate the strength of the connection between surface moisture and precipitation in a coupled system. To address model deficiencies, recent studies have focused on development of diagnostics to quantify the strength and accuracy of the land-PBL coupling at the process level. In this paper, a diagnosis of the nature and impacts of local land-atmosphere coupling (LoCo) during dry and wet extreme conditions is presented using a combination of models and observations during the summers of 2006 and 2007 in the U.S. southern Great Plains. A range of diagnostics exploring the links and feedbacks between soil moisture and precipitation is applied to the dry/wet regimes exhibited in this region, and in the process, a thorough evaluation of nine different land-PBL scheme couplings is conducted under the umbrella of a high-resolution regional modeling test bed. Results show that the sign and magnitude of errors in land surface energy balance components are sensitive to the choice of land surface model, regime type, and running mode. In addition, LoCo diagnostics show that the sensitivity of L-A coupling is stronger toward the land during dry conditions, while the PBL scheme coupling becomes more important during the wet regime. Results also demonstrate how LoCo diagnostics can be applied to any modeling system (e.g., reanalysis products) in the context of their integrated impacts on the process chain connecting the land surface to the PBL and in support of hydrological anomalies.

Vulnerability of US and European electricity supply to climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Vliet, Michelle T. H.; Yearsley, John R.; Ludwig, Fulco; Vögele, Stefan; Lettenmaier, Dennis P.; Kabat, Pavel

2012-09-01

In the United States and Europe, at present 91% and 78% (ref. ) of the total electricity is produced by thermoelectric (nuclear and fossil-fuelled) power plants, which directly depend on the availability and temperature of water resources for cooling. During recent warm, dry summers several thermoelectric power plants in Europe and the southeastern United States were forced to reduce production owing to cooling-water scarcity. Here we show that thermoelectric power in Europe and the United States is vulnerable to climate change owing to the combined impacts of lower summer river flows and higher river water temperatures. Using a physically based hydrological and water temperature modelling framework in combination with an electricity production model, we show a summer average decrease in capacity of power plants of 6.3-19% in Europe and 4.4-16% in the United States depending on cooling system type and climate scenario for 2031-2060. In addition, probabilities of extreme (>90%) reductions in thermoelectric power production will on average increase by a factor of three. Considering the increase in future electricity demand, there is a strong need for improved climate adaptation strategies in the thermoelectric power sector to assure futureenergy security.

Did we see the 2011 summer heat wave coming?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luo, Lifeng; Zhang, Yan

2012-05-01

A series of climate extreme events affected many parts of the US during 2011, including the severe drought in Texas, the spring tornado outbreak in the southern states, and the weeklong summer heat wave in the Central Plains. Successful prediction of these events can better inform and prepare the general public to cope with these extremes. In this study, we investigate the operational capability of the new NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFSv2) in predicting the 2011 summer heat wave. We found that starting from April 2011, the operational CFSv2 forecast consistently suggested an elevated probability of extremely hot days during the forthcoming summer over the Central Plains, and as the summer was approaching the forecast became more certain about the summer heat wave in its geographic location, intensity and timing. This study demonstrates the capability of the new seasonal forecast system and its potential usefulness in decision making process.

Climate variability and management impacts on carbon uptake in a temperate pine forest in Eastern Canada using flux data from 2003 to 2013

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arain, M. A.; Brodeur, J. J.; Thorne, R.; Peichl, M.; Huang, S.; Khomik, M.

2014-12-01

Temperate forests play an important role in global carbon cycle. In this study, we evaluate the impacts of climate variability and management regime on carbon uptake in a 75-year old temperate pine (Pinus strobus L.) forest, near Lake Erie in southern Ontario, Canada using eleven years (2003 to 2013) of eddy covariance flux data. These fluxes are compared with similar measurements made in an 80-year-old deciduous (Carolinian) forest, established in 2012. Both forests are managed stands and part of the Turkey Point Flux Station and global Fluxnet. Mean net ecosystem productivity, NEP, in the conifer stand is 145 (range 35 to 277) g C m2 y-1 over the 2003 to 2013 period, while mean NEP in the deciduous stand is 271 (226 and 317) g C m2 y-1 from 2012 to 2013. The study period experienced four distinct extreme weather patterns: warm and dry springs in 2005 and 2012, extremely wet and warm summer in 2006, a summer drought in 2007 and warm summers in 2010 and 2012. In February-March 2012, the conifer stand was selectively thinned and approximately 30% of trees were removed to improve light and water availability and stimulate growth of remaining trees. Thinning reduced NEP in the first post-thinning year, with mean annual NEP of 48 g C m2 y-1 in 2012. Increased supply of dead organic matter and warm temperatures in 2012 increased ecosystem respiration much more than photosynthesis, resulting in lower annual NEP. Heat stress and drought in spring of 2005 reduced NEP of the conifer stand to 35 g C m2 y-1. The impact of this extreme weather event on NEP was similar to that observed in 2012 when the stand experienced a drastic structural change, a dry spring and warm temperatures throughout the growing season. Observed fluxes from this forest and other Fluxnet sites were used to develop and validate a C and N coupled dynamic vegetation model, CLASS-CTEM-N that was applied to simulate terrestrial ecosystem's carbon, water and energy budgets at 0.5 x 0.5 degree spatial resolution across the globe from 1901 to 2010 as part of North American Carbon Program (NACP) site-level and model intercomparison initiatives. The inclusion of the N processes in CLASS-CTEM model has improved model response to changing climate and atmospheric CO2 concentration levels.

Aerosol forcing of extreme summer drought over North China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, L.

2017-12-01

The frequency of extreme summer drought has been increasing in North China during the past sixty years, which has caused serious water shortages. It remains unclear whether anthropogenic forcing has contributed to the increasing extreme droughts. Using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) re-analysis data and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) model simulations with various combinations of historical forcings, the authors investigated the driving mechanism behind the observed changes. Metrological drought is usually measured by precipitation anomalies, which show lower fidelity in current climate models compared to largescale circulation patterns. Based on NCEP/NCAR re-analysis, a linear relationship is firstly established between the weakest regional average 850 hPa southerly winds and extreme summer drought. This meridional winds index (MWI) is then used as a proxy for attribution of extreme North China drought using CMIP5 outputs. Examination of the CMIP5 simulations reveals that the probability of the extreme summer droughts with the first percentile of MWI for 1850-2004 under anthropogenic forcing has increased by 100%, on average, relative to a pre-industrial control run. The more frequent occurrence of extremely weak MWIs or drought over North China is ascribed from weakened climate and East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) circulation due to the direct cooling effect from increased aerosol.

Changing precipitation pattern alters soil microbial community response to wet-up under a Mediterranean-type climate.

PubMed

Barnard, Romain L; Osborne, Catherine A; Firestone, Mary K

2015-03-17

A large soil CO2 pulse is associated with rewetting soils after the dry summer period under a Mediterranean-type climate, significantly contributing to grasslands' annual carbon budget. Rapid reactivation of soil heterotrophs and a pulse of available carbon are both required to fuel the CO2 pulse. Understanding of the effects of altered summer precipitation on the metabolic state of indigenous microorganisms may be important in predicting changes in carbon cycling. Here, we investigated the effects of extending winter rainfall into the normally dry summer period on soil microbial response to a controlled rewetting event, by following the present (DNA-based) and potentially active (rRNA-based) soil bacterial and fungal communities in intact soil cores (from a California annual grassland) previously subjected to three different precipitation patterns over 4 months (full summer dry season, extended wet season and absent dry season). Phylogenetic marker genes for bacteria and fungi were sequenced before and after rewetting, and the abundance of these genes and transcripts was measured. After having experienced markedly different antecedent water conditions, the potentially active bacterial communities showed a consistent wet-up response. We found a significant positive relation between the extent of change in the structure of the potentially active bacterial community and the magnitude of the CO2 pulse upon rewetting dry soils. We suggest that the duration of severe dry summer conditions characteristic of the Mediterranean climate is important in conditioning the response potential of the soil microbial community to wet-up as well as in framing the magnitude of the associated CO2 pulse.

Characterization of 2014 summer drought over Henan province using remotely sensed data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lu, Jing; Jia, Li; Zhou, Jie

2015-12-01

An exceptional drought struck Henan province during the summer of 2014. It caused directly the financial loss reaching to hundreds of billion Yuan (RMB), and brought the adverse influence for people's life, agricultural production as well as the ecosystem. The study in this paper characterized the Henan 2014 summer drought event through analyzing the spatial distribution of drought severity using precipitation data from Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) sensor and Normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and land surface temperature (LST) products from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensor. The trend analysis of the annual precipitation from 2003 to 2014 showed that the region over Henan province is becoming dry. Especially in the east of Henan province, the decrease of precipitation is more obvious with the maximum change rate of ~48 mm/year. The rainfall in summer (from June to August) of 2014 was the largest negtive anomaly in contrast with the same period of historical years, which was 43% lower than the average of the past ten years. Drought severity derived from Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) indicated that all areas of Henan province experienced drought in summer of 2014 with different severity levels. The extreme drought, accounting for about 22.7 % of Henan total area, mainly occurred in Luohe, Xuchang, and Pingdingshan regions, and partly in Nanyang, Zhengzhou, and Jiaozuo. This is consistent with the statistics from local municipalities. The Normalized Drought Index Anomaly (NDAI), calculated from MODIS NDVI and LST products, can capture the evolution of the Henan 2014 summer drought effectively. Drought severity classified by NDAI also agreed well with the result from the SPI.

Climate Sensitivity to Shallow Groundwater Dynamics Inferred from Historical Groundwater Level Observations and Climate Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seyoum, W. M.; Wahls, B.

2017-12-01

The effect of land surface processes (e.g., change in vegetation and snow cover, and change in soil moisture) on climate is well understood. However, the connection between shallow groundwater fluctuation and regional climate variability is still unresolved. This project focuses on sensitivity of climate to shallow groundwater dynamics by analyzing the impact of shallow groundwater on soil moisture and precipitation. The study use co-located measurements of daily soil moisture, depth to groundwater level (DGWL), and climate (precipitation (R) and air temperature) data. Statistical relationship between soil moisture and DGWL at different depth established. Frequency, mean and cumulative climate extremes (R90, R99, R < 1mm) examined and compared with depth to groundwater level information at Bellville station, IL. Result indicate soil moisture has a strong inverse relationship with depth to groundwater level (r -0.75) when DGWL is between 0 to 2 m (critical depth) depth from the ground. Beyond this depth, there is no statistically significant correlation or trend between soil moisture and GWL. Within this critical depth, soil moisture is more or less constant during wet days (R ≥ 1mm) even though DGWL is fluctuating. However, soil moisture decrease exponentially as DGWL declining during dry days (R < 1mm). Thus, soil moisture is highly likely dependent on groundwater feedback in the critical depth. Comparison of DGWL with frequency and cumulative of subsequent summer and fall extreme precipitation (DGWL leading by 4-7 months) indicate higher frequency and magnitude of extreme wet precipitation (Rm > 150 mm) occur when DGWL is within the critical depth. As DGWL decreases below 2 m, frequency and magnitude of extreme precipitation diminishes. On the other hand, DGWL has no significant relationship with subsequent extreme dry condition, there is no statistically significant trend between frequency of R < 1mm and DGWL. Generally, depth to groundwater level influence soil moisture within 0 to 2 m depth form the ground. Groundwater level close to the ground (0 - 2 m) seems likely influence subsequent extreme wet condition while not conclusive is the influence of declining groundwater level (beyond 2 m) to subsequent dry conditions. The result support the broad hypothesis that shallow groundwater can influence climate.

Joint pattern of seasonal hydrological droughts and floods alternation in China's Huai River Basin using the multivariate L-moments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, ShaoFei; Zhang, Xiang; She, DunXian

2017-06-01

Under the current condition of climate change, droughts and floods occur more frequently, and events in which flooding occurs after a prolonged drought or a drought occurs after an extreme flood may have a more severe impact on natural systems and human lives. This challenges the traditional approach wherein droughts and floods are considered separately, which may largely underestimate the risk of the disasters. In our study, the sudden alternation of droughts and flood events (ADFEs) between adjacent seasons is studied using the multivariate L-moments theory and the bivariate copula functions in the Huai River Basin (HRB) of China with monthly streamflow data at 32 hydrological stations from 1956 to 2012. The dry and wet conditions are characterized by the standardized streamflow index (SSI) at a 3-month time scale. The results show that: (1) The summer streamflow makes the largest contribution to the annual streamflow, followed by the autumn streamflow and spring streamflow. (2) The entire study area can be divided into five homogeneous sub-regions using the multivariate regional homogeneity test. The generalized logistic distribution (GLO) and log-normal distribution (LN3) are acceptable to be the optimal marginal distributions under most conditions, and the Frank copula is more appropriate for spring-summer and summer-autumn SSI series. Continuous flood events dominate at most sites both in spring-summer and summer-autumn (with an average frequency of 13.78% and 17.06%, respectively), while continuous drought events come second (with an average frequency of 11.27% and 13.79%, respectively). Moreover, seasonal ADFEs most probably occurred near the mainstream of HRB, and drought and flood events are more likely to occur in summer-autumn than in spring-summer.

Risk and dynamics of unprecedented hot months in South East China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thompson, Vikki; Dunstone, Nick J.; Scaife, Adam A.; Smith, Doug M.; Hardiman, Steven C.; Ren, Hong-Li; Lu, Bo; Belcher, Stephen E.

2018-06-01

The Yangtze region of South East China has experienced several extreme hot summer months in recent years. Such events can have devastating socio-economic impacts. We use a large ensemble of initialised climate simulations to assess the current chance of unprecedented hot summer months in the Yangtze River region. We find a 10% chance of an unprecedented hot summer month each year. Our simulations suggest that monthly mean temperatures up to 3 °C hotter than the current record are possible. The dynamics of these unprecedented extremes highlights the occurrence of a stationary atmospheric wave, the Silk Road Pattern, in a significant number of extreme hot events. We present evidence that this atmospheric wave is driven by variability in the Indian summer monsoon. Other extreme events are associated with a westward shift in the western North Pacific subtropical high. The most extreme simulated events exhibit combined characteristics of both the Silk Road Pattern and the shifted western North Pacific subtropical high.

Are satellite products good proxies for gauge precipitation over Singapore?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hur, Jina; Raghavan, Srivatsan V.; Nguyen, Ngoc Son; Liong, Shie-Yui

2018-05-01

The uncertainties in two high-resolution satellite precipitation products (TRMM 3B42 v7.0 and GSMaP v5.222) were investigated by comparing them against rain gauge observations over Singapore on sub-daily scales. The satellite-borne precipitation products are assessed in terms of seasonal, monthly and daily variations, the diurnal cycle, and extreme precipitation over a 10-year period (2000-2010). Results indicate that the uncertainties in extreme precipitation is higher in GSMaP than in TRMM, possibly due to the issues such as satellite merging algorithm, the finer spatio-temporal scale of high intensity precipitation, and the swath time of satellite. Such discrepancies between satellite-borne and gauge-based precipitations at sub-daily scale can possibly lead to distorting analysis of precipitation characteristics and/or application model results. Overall, both satellite products are unable to capture the observed extremes and provide a good agreement with observations only at coarse time scales. Also, the satellite products agree well on the late afternoon maximum and heavier rainfall of gauge-based data in winter season when the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) is located over Singapore. However, they do not reproduce the gauge-observed diurnal cycle in summer. The disagreement in summer could be attributed to the dominant satellite overpass time (about 14:00 SGT) later than the diurnal peak time (about 09:00 SGT) of gauge precipitation. From the analyses of extreme precipitation indices, it is inferred that both satellite datasets tend to overestimate the light rain and frequency but underestimate high intensity precipitation and the length of dry spells. This study on quantification of their uncertainty is useful in many aspects especially that these satellite products stand scrutiny over places where there are no good ground data to be compared against. This has serious implications on climate studies as in model evaluations and in particular, climate model simulated future projections, when information on precipitation extremes need to be reliable as they are highly crucial for adaptation and mitigation.

Atmospheric Rivers and floods in Southern California: Climate forcing of extreme weather events.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hendy, I. L.; Heusser, L. E.; Napier, T.; Pak, D. K.

2016-12-01

Southern California has a Mediterranean type climate characterized by warm dry summers associated with the North Pacific High pressure system and cool, wet winters primarily associated in low pressure systems originating in the high latitude North Pacific. Extreme precipitation, however, is connected to strong zonal flow that brings warm, moist tropical across the Pacific (AKA atmospheric river). Here we present a revised record of flood events in Santa Barbara Basin that have been linked to atmospheric rivers focusing on events associated with transitions between known climate events using new radiocarbon chronology and detailed sediment composition. Flood events identified by homogenous grey layers are present throughout the Holocene with a recurrence every 110 years, but are particularly common (85 year recurrence) between 4,200 and 2,000 years BP. Interval between 6,500 and 4,500 commonly associated with dry conditions in California was associated with fewer flood events (recurrence interval increased to 176 years). Intervals of high lake levels in California associated with pluvials appear to be associated with more frequent extreme precipitation events. The longest recurrence interval (535 years) is associated with the Medieval Climate Anomaly. The season in which the atmospheric river occurs was estimated using the relative abundance of pollen within the flood deposit. The 735 and 1270 C.E. flood events are associated with May-June flowering vegetation, while the most recent events (1861-2 and 1761 C.E.) were associated with November to March flowering vegetation. This agrees with the December-January rainfall records of the historic 1861-62. We conclude the frequency of extreme precipitation events appears to increase as climate cools (e.g. the Little Ice Age).

Midlatitude Summer Drying: An Underestimated Threat in CMIP5 Models?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Douville, H.; Plazzotta, M.

2017-10-01

Early assessments of the hydrological impacts of global warming suggested both an intensification of the global water cycle and an expansion of dry areas. Yet these alarming conclusions were challenged by a number of latter studies emphasizing the lack of evidence in observations and historical simulations, as well as the large uncertainties in climate projections from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Here several aridity indices and a two-tier attribution strategy are used to demonstrate that a summer midlatitude drying has recently emerged over the northern continents, which is mainly attributable to anthropogenic climate change. This emerging signal is shown to be the harbinger of a long-term drying in the CMIP5 projections. Linear trends in the observed aridity indices can therefore be used as observational constraints and suggest that the projected midlatitude summer drying was underestimated by most CMIP5 models. Mitigating global warming therefore remains a priority to avoid dangerous impacts on global water and food security.

The relative contribution of climate to changes in lesser prairie-chicken abundance

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ross, Beth E.; Haukos, David A.; Hagen, Christian A.; Pitman, James

2016-01-01

Managing for species using current weather patterns fails to incorporate the uncertainty associated with future climatic conditions; without incorporating potential changes in climate into conservation strategies, management and conservation efforts may fall short or waste valuable resources. Understanding the effects of climate change on species in the Great Plains of North America is especially important, as this region is projected to experience an increased magnitude of climate change. Of particular ecological and conservation interest is the lesser prairie-chicken (Tympanuchus pallidicinctus), which was listed as “threatened” under the U.S. Endangered Species Act in May 2014. We used Bayesian hierarchical models to quantify the effects of extreme climatic events (extreme values of the Palmer Drought Severity Index [PDSI]) relative to intermediate (changes in El Niño Southern Oscillation) and long-term climate variability (changes in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation) on trends in lesser prairie-chicken abundance from 1981 to 2014. Our results indicate that lesser prairie-chicken abundance on leks responded to environmental conditions of the year previous by positively responding to wet springs (high PDSI) and negatively to years with hot, dry summers (low PDSI), but had little response to variation in the El Niño Southern Oscillation and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Additionally, greater variation in abundance on leks was explained by variation in site relative to broad-scale climatic indices. Consequently, lesser prairie-chicken abundance on leks in Kansas is more strongly influenced by extreme drought events during summer than other climatic conditions, which may have negative consequences for the population as drought conditions intensify throughout the Great Plains.

The North Pacific Summer Jet and Climate Extremes Over North America: Mechanisms and Model Biases

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schubert, S. D.; Wang, H.; Chang, Y.; Koster, R. D.; Molod, A.

2017-12-01

The North Pacific summer jet (NPSJ) plays a critical role as a waveguide for weather systems and other sub-seasonal Rossby waves entering North America and therefore has a controlling influence on the warm season weather and climate extremes over much of the continent. In particular, much of the warm season precipitation that occurs over the central United States depends on subseasonal transients that are able to tap moisture from the Gulf of Mexico as they propagate across the continent. The GEOS-5 atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM), like many AGCMs, is deficient in the simulation of the NPSJ. It is shown that the deficiency is composed of: 1) a stunted jet in which the strongest winds are confined to the Asian continent, failing to extend across the North Pacific into the Gulf of Alaska as observed, and 2) a zonally symmetric poleward shift in the jet. These biases combine to impede the eastward propagation of the weather systems into the continent (the stunted jet), and deprive those systems that do enter the continent access to the moisture from the Gulf (the northward shift), leading to a dry bias over the central US. It is shown that the stunted jet bias is the result of too strong heating that occurs just south of the jet core over and near Tibet. Furthermore, it is shown that the poleward shift of the NPSJ can be corrected in the current GEOS-5 AGCM by increasing the vertical resolution. The implications of these results for improving warm season forecasts of extreme events will be discussed.

The North Pacific Summer Jet and Climate Extremes over North America: Mechanisms and Model Biases

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schubert, S.; Wang, H.; Chang, Y.; Koster, R.; Molod, A.; Barahona, D.

2017-01-01

The North Pacific summer jet (NPSJ) plays a critical role as a waveguide for weather systems and other sub-seasonal Rossby waves entering North America and therefore has a controlling influence on the warm season weather and climate extremes over much of the continent. In particular, much of the warm season precipitation that occurs over the central United States depends on subseasonal transients that are able to tap moisture from the Gulf of Mexico as they propagate across the continent. The GEOS-5 atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM), like many AGCMs, is deficient in the simulation of the NPSJ. It is shown that the deficiency is composed of: 1) a stunted jet in which the strongest winds are confined to the Asian continent, failing to extend across the North Pacific into the Gulf of Alaska as observed, and 2) a zonally symmetric poleward shift in the jet. These biases combine to impede the eastward propagation of the weather systems into the continent (the stunted jet), and deprive those systems that do enter the continent access to the moisture from the Gulf (the northward shift), leading to a dry bias over the central US. It is shown that the stunted jet bias is the result of too strong heating that occurs just south of the jet core over and near Tibet. Furthermore, it is shown that the poleward shift of the NPSJ can be corrected in the current GEOS-5 AGCM by increasing the vertical resolution. The implications of these results for improving warm season forecasts of extreme events will be discussed.

Warming combined with more extreme precipitation regimes modifies the water sources used by trees.

PubMed

Grossiord, Charlotte; Sevanto, Sanna; Dawson, Todd E; Adams, Henry D; Collins, Adam D; Dickman, Lee T; Newman, Brent D; Stockton, Elizabeth A; McDowell, Nate G

2017-01-01

The persistence of vegetation under climate change will depend on a plant's capacity to exploit water resources. We analyzed water source dynamics in piñon pine and juniper trees subjected to precipitation reduction, atmospheric warming, and to both simultaneously. Piñon and juniper exhibited different and opposite shifts in water uptake depth in response to experimental stress and background climate over 3 yr. During a dry summer, juniper responded to warming with a shift to shallow water sources, whereas piñon pine responded to precipitation reduction with a shift to deeper sources in autumn. In normal and wet summers, both species responded to precipitation reduction, but juniper increased deep water uptake and piñon increased shallow water uptake. Shifts in the utilization of water sources were associated with reduced stomatal conductance and photosynthesis, suggesting that belowground compensation in response to warming and water reduction did not alleviate stress impacts for gas exchange. We have demonstrated that predicted climate change could modify water sources of trees. Warming impairs juniper uptake of deep sources during extended dry periods. Precipitation reduction alters the uptake of shallow sources following extended droughts for piñon. Shifts in water sources may not compensate for climate change impacts on tree physiology. © 2016 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2016 New Phytologist Trust.

The role of spring precipitation deficits on European and North American summer heat wave activity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cowan, Tim; Hegerl, Gabi

2017-04-01

Heat waves are relatively short-term climate phenomena with potentially severe societal impacts, particularly on health, agriculture and the natural environment. In water-limited regions, increased heat wave activity over intra-decadal periods is often associated with protracted droughts, as observed over North America's Central and Southern Great Plains in the 1930s and 1950s, highlighting the importance of land surface-atmosphere feedbacks. Here we present an analysis of the covariability of spring precipitation deficit and summer heat waves for North America and Europe, the latter having experienced an increase in summer heat wave frequency since the 1950s (Perkins et al. 2012). Over the Great Plains summer heat waves are significantly earlier, longer and hotter if following dry rather than wet springs, with the mega-heat waves of the 1930s Dust Bowl decade an extreme example (e.g. Cowan et al. 2017). Similar relationships can be found in some parts of Europe for heat wave frequency and duration, namely Southern and Eastern Europe, although the heat wave timing and amplitude (i.e. the hottest events) appear less sensitive to spring drying. Climate model results investigating the relationship between heat waves and precipitation deficit in regions in Europe and North America will also be presented. It is necessary to pinpoint the causes of large decadal variations in heat wave metrics, as seen in the 1930s over North America and more recently across Central Europe, for event attribution purposes and to improve near-decadal prediction. The tight link between spring drought and summer heat waves will also be important for understanding the impacts of these climatic events and supports the development of compound event analysis techniques. References: Cowan, T., G. Hegerl, I. Colfescu, A. Purich and G. Boshcat (2016), Factors contributing to record-breaking heat waves over the Great Plains during the 1930s Dust Bowl. Journal of Climate, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0436.1 (in press). Perkins, S. E., L. V. Alexander, and J. R. Nairn (2012), Increasing frequency, intensity and duration of observed global heatwaves and warm spells, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L20714, doi:10.1029/2012GL053361.

The impact of temperature and precipitation on blacklegged tick activity and Lyme disease incidence in endemic and emerging regions.

PubMed

Burtis, James C; Sullivan, Patrick; Levi, Taal; Oggenfuss, Kelly; Fahey, Timothy J; Ostfeld, Richard S

2016-11-25

The incidence of Lyme disease shows high degrees of inter-annual variation in the northeastern United States, but the factors driving this variation are not well understood. Complicating matters, it is also possible that these driving factors may vary in regions with differing histories of Lyme disease endemism. We evaluated the effect of the number of hot (T > 25 °C), dry (precipitation = 0) days during the questing periods of the two immature Ixodes scapularis life stages (larval and nymphal) on inter-annual variation in Lyme disease incidence between 2000 and 2011 in long-term endemic versus recently endemic areas. We also evaluated the effect of summer weather on tick questing activity and the number of ticks found on small mammals between 1994 and 2012 on six sites in Millbrook, NY. The number of hot, dry days during the larval period of the previous year did not affect the human incidence of Lyme disease or the density of questing nymphs the following season. However, dry summer weather during the nymphal questing period had a significant negative effect on the incidence of Lyme disease in the long-term endemic areas, and on the density of questing nymphs. Summer weather conditions had a more pronounced effect on actively questing I. scapularis collected via dragging than on the number of ticks found feeding on small mammals. In recently endemic areas Lyme disease incidence increased significantly over time, but no trend was detected between disease incidence and dry summer weather. Recently endemic regions showed an increase in Lyme disease incidence over time, while incidence in long-term endemic regions appears to have stabilized. Only within the stabilized areas were we able to detect reduced Lyme disease incidence in years with hot, dry summer weather. These patterns were reflected in our field data, which showed that questing activity of nymphal I. scapularis was reduced by hot, dry summer weather.

Enhanced summer warming reduces fungal decomposer diversity and litter mass loss more strongly in dry than in wet tundra.

PubMed

Christiansen, Casper T; Haugwitz, Merian S; Priemé, Anders; Nielsen, Cecilie S; Elberling, Bo; Michelsen, Anders; Grogan, Paul; Blok, Daan

2017-01-01

Many Arctic regions are currently experiencing substantial summer and winter climate changes. Litter decomposition is a fundamental component of ecosystem carbon and nutrient cycles, with fungi being among the primary decomposers. To assess the impacts of seasonal climatic changes on litter fungal communities and their functioning, Betula glandulosa leaf litter was surface-incubated in two adjacent low Arctic sites with contrasting soil moisture regimes: dry shrub heath and wet sedge tundra at Disko Island, Greenland. At both sites, we investigated the impacts of factorial combinations of enhanced summer warming (using open-top chambers; OTCs) and deepened snow (using snow fences) on surface litter mass loss, chemistry and fungal decomposer communities after approximately 1 year. Enhanced summer warming significantly restricted litter mass loss by 32% in the dry and 17% in the wet site. Litter moisture content was significantly reduced by summer warming in the dry, but not in the wet site. Likewise, fungal total abundance and diversity were reduced by OTC warming at the dry site, while comparatively modest warming effects were observed in the wet site. These results suggest that increased evapotranspiration in the OTC plots lowered litter moisture content to the point where fungal decomposition activities became inhibited. In contrast, snow addition enhanced fungal abundance in both sites but did not significantly affect litter mass loss rates. Across sites, control plots only shared 15% of their fungal phylotypes, suggesting strong local controls on fungal decomposer community composition. Nevertheless, fungal community functioning (litter decomposition) was negatively affected by warming in both sites. We conclude that although buried soil organic matter decomposition is widely expected to increase with future summer warming, surface litter decay and nutrient turnover rates in both xeric and relatively moist tundra are likely to be significantly restricted by the evaporative drying associated with warmer air temperatures. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Five centuries of Central European temperature extremes reconstructed from tree-ring density and documentary evidence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Battipaglia, G.; Frank, D.; Buentgen, U.; Dobrovolný, P.; Brázdil, R.; Pfister, C.; Esper, J.

2009-09-01

In this project three different summer temperature sensitive tree-ring chronologies across the European Alpine region were compiled and analyzed to make a calendar of extreme warm and cold summers. We identified 100 extreme events during the past millennium from the tree ring data, and 44 extreme years during the 1550-2003 period based upon tree-ring, documentary and instrumental evidence. Comparisons with long instrumental series and documentary evidence verify the tree-ring extremes and indicate the possibility to use this dataset towards a better understanding of the characteristics prior to the instrumental period. Potential links between the occurrence of extreme events over Alps and anomalous large-scale patterns were explored and indicate that the average pattern of the 20 warmest summers (over the 1700-2002 period) describes maximum positive anomalies over Central Europe, whereas the average pattern of the 20 coldest summers shows maximum negative anomalies over Western Europe. Challenges with the present approach included determining an appropriate classification scheme for extreme events and the development of a methodology able to identify and characterize the occurrence of extreme episodes back in time. As a future step, our approach will be extended to help verify the sparse documentary data from the beginning of the past millennium and will be used in conjunction with climate models to assess model capabilities in reproducing characteristics of temperature extremes.

Shrinking streamflows in the Redwood Region

Treesearch

Randy. D. Klein; Tasha McKee; Katrina Nystrom

2017-01-01

The ongoing, severe drought in the redwood ecosystem has many ramifications, including loss of summer rearing habitat for juvenile salmonids. Many ‘perennial’ streams now cease to flow during parts of the summer and fall, either drying up completely or disconnecting pools as riffles go dry, subjecting fish to increased predation, high water temperatures, and...

Microbial community dynamics induced by rewetting dry soil: summer precipitation matters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barnard, Romain; Osborne, Catherine; Firestone, Mary

2015-04-01

The massive soil CO2 efflux associated with rewetting dry soils after the dry summer period significantly contributes to the annual carbon budget of Mediterranean grasslands. Rapid reactivation of soil heterotrophic activity and available carbon are both required to fuel the CO2 pulse. Better understanding of the effects of altered summer precipitation on the metabolic state of indigenous microorganisms may be important in predicting future changes in carbon cycling. We investigated the effects of a controlled rewetting event on the soil CO2 efflux pulse and on the present (DNA-based) and potentially active (rRNA-based) soil bacterial and fungal communities in intact soil cores previously subjected to three different precipitation patterns over four months (full summer dry season, extended wet season, and absent dry season). Phylogenetic marker genes for bacteria (16S) and fungi (28S) were sequenced before and after rewetting, and the abundance of these genes and transcripts was measured. Even after having experienced markedly different antecedent water conditions, the potentially active bacterial communities showed a consistent wet-up response, reflecting contrasting life-strategies for different groups. Moreover, we found a significant positive relation between the extent of change in the structure of the potentially active bacterial community and the magnitude of the CO2 pulse upon rewetting dry soils. We suggest that the duration of severe dry conditions (predicted to change under future climate) is important in conditioning the response potential of the soil bacterial community to wet-up as well as in framing the magnitude of the associated CO2 pulse.

Compound extremes of summer temperature and precipitation leading to intensified departures from natural variability.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mahony, C. R.; Cannon, A. J.

2017-12-01

Climate change can drive local climates outside the range of their historical year-to-year variability, straining the adaptive capacity of ecological and human communities. We demonstrate that interactions between climate variables can produce larger and earlier departures from natural variability than is detectable in individual variables. For example, summer temperature (Tx) and precipitation (Pr) are negatively correlated in most terrestrial regions, such that interannual variability lies along an axis from warm-and-dry to cool-and-wet conditions. A climate change trend perpendicular to this axis, towards warmer-wetter conditions, can depart more quickly from the range of natural variability than a warmer-drier trend. This multivariate "departure intensification" effect is evident in all six CMIP5 models that we examined: 23% (9-34%) of the land area of each model exhibits a pronounced increase in 2σ extremesin the Tx-Pr regime relative to Tx or Pr alone. Observational data suggest that Tx-Pr correlations are sufficient to produce departure intensification in distinct regions on all continents. Departures from the historical Tx-Pr regime may produce ecological disruptions, such as in plant-pathogen interactions and human diseases, that could offset the drought mitigation benefits of increased precipitation. Our study alerts researchers and adaptation practitioners to the presence of multivariate climate change signals and compound extremes that are not detectable in individual climate variables.

Rising Mediterranean Sea Surface Temperatures Amplify Extreme Summer Precipitation in Central Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Volosciuk, Claudia; Maraun, Douglas; Semenov, Vladimir A.; Tilinina, Natalia; Gulev, Sergey K.; Latif, Mojib

2016-08-01

The beginning of the 21st century was marked by a number of severe summer floods in Central Europe associated with extreme precipitation (e.g., Elbe 2002, Oder 2010 and Danube 2013). Extratropical storms, known as Vb-cyclones, cause summer extreme precipitation events over Central Europe and can thus lead to such floodings. Vb-cyclones develop over the Mediterranean Sea, which itself strongly warmed during recent decades. Here we investigate the influence of increased Mediterranean Sea surface temperature (SST) on extreme precipitation events in Central Europe. To this end, we carry out atmosphere model simulations forced by average Mediterranean SSTs during 1970-1999 and 2000-2012. Extreme precipitation events occurring on average every 20 summers in the warmer-SST-simulation (2000-2012) amplify along the Vb-cyclone track compared to those in the colder-SST-simulation (1970-1999), on average by 17% in Central Europe. The largest increase is located southeast of maximum precipitation for both simulated heavy events and historical Vb-events. The responsible physical mechanism is increased evaporation from and enhanced atmospheric moisture content over the Mediterranean Sea. The excess in precipitable water is transported from the Mediterranean Sea to Central Europe causing stronger precipitation extremes over that region. Our findings suggest that Mediterranean Sea surface warming amplifies Central European precipitation extremes.

Spatio-temporal seasonal drought patterns in Europe from 1950 to 2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spinoni, Jonathan; Naumann, Gustavo; Vogt, Jürgen

2016-04-01

Drought is one of the natural disasters with severe impacts in Europe, not only in areas which frequently experience water scarcity such as the Mediterranean, but also in temperate or continental climates such as Central and Eastern Europe and even in cold regions such as Scandinavia and Iceland. In this study the spatio-temporal patterns of seasonal meteorological droughts in Europe between 1950 and 2015 are investigated using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). Since the focus is on the analysis of seasonal drought trends, indicators were calculated for 3 monthly accumulation periods. The input variables of precipitation and temperature were derived from E-OBS grids (v11-v12) at a spatial resolution of 0.25°x0.25°. Seasonal trends of drought frequency and severity were analyzed for moderate (SPI or SPEI <-1.0) and extreme (SPI or SPEI <-2.0) events during the periods 1950-2015 and 1981-2015. For the moderate events, results of the SPI analysis (precipitation driven) demonstrate a significant tendency towards less frequent and severe droughts in Northern Europe and Russia, especially in winter and spring; oppositely, an increasing trend is visible in Southern Europe, mainly in spring and summer. According to the SPEI analysis (precipitation and temperature driven) Northern Europe shows wetting patterns, while Southern and Eastern Europe show a more remarkable drying tendency, especially in summer and autumn for drought frequency and in every season for drought severity. The evolution towards drier conditions is more relevant from 1981 onwards, both in terms of frequency and severity. This is especially true for Central Europe in spring, for the Mediterranean in summer, and for Eastern Europe in autumn. Extreme events follow similar patterns, but in autumn no spatially coherent trend can be found.

Tying Variability in Summertime North American Extreme Weather Regimes to the Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jenney, A. M.; Randall, D. A.

2017-12-01

Tropical intraseasonal oscillations are known to be a source of extratropical variability. We show that subseasonal variability in observed North American epidemiologically significant regional extreme weather regimes is teleconnected to the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO)—a complex tropical weather system that is active during the northern summer and has a 30-50 day timescale. The dynamics of the teleconnection are examined. We also find that interannual variability of the tropical mean-state can modulate the teleconnection. Our results suggest that the BSISO may enable subseasonal to seasonal predictions of North American summertime weather extremes.

The impact of extreme weather conditions on the life of settlers in the Central Russia in X - XVI centuries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Graves, Irina; Nizovtsev, Viacheslav; Erman, Natalia

2017-04-01

A special place in the reconstruction of climate dynamics takes an analysis of extraordinary meteorological phenomena. These extreme weather events in the first place impact the functioning of, the rhythm and dynamics of the landscapes and determine not only the features of economy, but also certain aspects of historical development. In the analysis of primary chronicles and published data, along with the direct climatic characteristics (hot, warm, cold, wet, dry, etc.) a lot of attention was paid to abnormal (extreme) natural phenomena and indirect indications of climate variability (floods, crop failures, hunger years, epidemics, etc.). As a result, tables were compiled reflecting climatic basic characteristics and extremes for each year since 900 BC. X-XI centuries was a period of minor climatic optimum - the climate was warmer and drier than the modern one. In addition to higher temperatures (up to 1-3C above than mordern), during this period there were no severe winters. A small amount of summer rainfall has led to a reduction in the number of small water reservoirs and flooding rivers. This is evidenced by Slavic settlements on floodplains of a number of rivers in the Moscow region. It is in this favorable climatic time the way "from the Vikings to the Greeks" was open. Catastrophic natural events had a minimum repeatability. For example, during the X century the Russian chronicles mentioned 41 extreme event, but for the XIII century - 102. Most of the villages and towns were located on the low floodplain terraces of rivers. The main farmland was concentrated there as well. In the "period of contrasts" (XIII - XIV centuries) there was an increase of intra-seasonal climate variability, humidity and widespread reduction in summer temperatures by 1-2C. The number of extreme weather events increased: cold prolonged winters, long rains in summers, cold weather returns in the early summer, early frosts in late summer - early autumn. Such conditions often resulted in crop damage and famine. From the XIV century the little Ice Age began. Year average temperature becomes lower by 1.4°C and summer temperature - by 2-3°C. In the XIV century the chronicles mentioned a total of 100 extreme natural phenomena, as a result of which Russia experienced more than 37 years of famine. The climate was particularly variable in late XIV - early XV century and XVI - XVII centuries, when there were years of particularly cold winters and increased humidity (due to winter precipitation). The duration of the crop growing season was reduced by three weeks. At the beginning of the XVII century spruce became dominant in the spruce-deciduous forests and co-dominant in deciduous forests. There was a transfer of settlements and agricultural land to interfluve areas and higher river valleys. The determining factors were demographic, socio-economic and historical factors, but the role of natural factors cannot be overlooked. The end of the XVI century was marked by the most severe political and economic crisis in the Russian State (oprichnina (political and administrative apparatus established by Ivan IV) and Livonian Wars by Ivan IV), which, combined with deteriorating environmental conditions (increased humidity of the climate, the average annual temperature drop) caused massive desolation of the lands. Many hundreds of villages turned into wasteland. In this period the Moscow land was reported as a "wild desert, covered with shrubs, bogs and imbanks", there were also memories of the past navigation on small rivers, data on mills on the streams. The climate deterioration caused the agrarian revolution in Russia in XIV-XVI centuries. Slash-and-burn and shifting cultivation was replaced by plow farming system (two- and three-field), which was more adapted to the harsh climatic conditions. The work is performed under project № 17-05-00662of the Russian Foundation for Basic Research

Comparative activity and functional ecology of permafrost soils and lithic niches in a hyper-arid polar desert.

PubMed

Goordial, Jacqueline; Davila, Alfonso; Greer, Charles W; Cannam, Rebecca; DiRuggiero, Jocelyne; McKay, Christopher P; Whyte, Lyle G

2017-02-01

Permafrost in the high elevation McMurdo Dry Valleys of Antarctica ranks among the driest and coldest on Earth. Permafrost soils appear to be largely inhospitable to active microbial life, but sandstone lithic microhabitats contain a trophically simple but functional cryptoendolithic community. We used metagenomic sequencing and activity assays to examine the functional capacity of permafrost soils and cryptoendolithic communities in University Valley, one of the most extreme regions in the Dry Valleys. We found metagenomic evidence that cryptoendolithic microorganisms are adapted to the harsh environment and capable of metabolic activity at in situ temperatures, possessing a suite of stress response and nutrient cycling genes to fix carbon under the fluctuating conditions that the sandstone rock would experience during the summer months. We additionally identified genes involved in microbial competition and cooperation within the cryptoendolithic habitat. In contrast, permafrost soils have a lower richness of stress response genes, and instead the metagenome is enriched in genes involved with dormancy and sporulation. The permafrost soils also have a large presence of phage genes and genes involved in the recycling of cellular material. Our results underlie two different habitability conditions under extreme cold and dryness: the permafrost soil which is enriched in traits which emphasize survival and dormancy, rather than growth and activity; and the cryptoendolithic environment that selects for organisms capable of growth under extremely oligotrophic, arid and cold conditions. This study represents the first metagenomic interrogation of Antarctic permafrost and polar cryptoendolithic microbial communities. © 2016 Society for Applied Microbiology and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Effects of heat and drought on carbon and water dynamics in a regenerating semi-arid pine forest: a combined experimental and modeling approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruehr, N. K.; Law, B. E.; Quandt, D.; Williams, M.

2014-01-01

Increasing summer temperatures and a reduction in precipitation will enhance drought stress in Mediterranean and semi-arid ecosystems. Predicting the net effects on forests' carbon and water balance will depend on our ability to disentangle the sensitivity of component fluxes responding to increasing soil and atmospheric drought. Here we studied carbon and water dynamics in a semi-arid regenerating ponderosa pine forest using field observations and process based modeling. Field observations of two summer dry seasons were used to calibrate a soil-plant-atmosphere (SPA) model. In addition, the ecosystem's response to reduced soil drought was quantified based on a field watering experiment and evaluated with the model. Further, the SPA model was used to estimate the relative effects of increasing soil and atmospheric drought over time, by simulating temperature and precipitation scenarios for 2040 and 2080. The seasonality and drought response of ecosystem fluxes was well captured by the calibrated SPA model. Dramatic increases in summer water availability during seasonal drought had a small effect on pine physiology in both the watering experiment and the model. This clearly demonstrates that atmospheric drought induced a strong limitation on carbon uptake in young ponderosa pine due to tight regulation of stomatal conductance. Moreover, simulations showed that net ecosystem exchange (NEE) and gross primary productivity (GPP) were about three times more affected by summer heat and increased evaporative demand than by reductions in summer precipitation. Annual NEE decreased by 38% in response to extreme summer conditions as predicted to occur in 2080 (June-August: +4.5 °C), because of a strong decline in GPP (-17%) while heterotrophic respiration was relatively unaffected (-1%). Considering warming trends across all seasons (September-May: +3 °C and June-August: +4.5 °C), the negative drought effects were largely compensated by an earlier initiation of favorable growing conditions and bud break, enhancing early season GPP and needle biomass. An adverse effect, triggered by changes in early season allocation patterns, was the decline of wood and root biomass. This imbalance may increase water stress over the long-term to a threshold at which ponderosa pine may not survive, and highlights the need for an integrated process understanding of the combined effects of trends and extremes.

Summer syncope syndrome redux.

PubMed

Huang, Jennifer Juxiang; Desai, Chirag; Singh, Nirmal; Sharda, Natasha; Fernandes, Aaron; Riaz, Irbaz Bin; Alpert, Joseph S

2015-10-01

While antihypertensive therapy is known to reduce the risk for heart failure, myocardial infarction, and stroke, it can often cause orthostatic hypotension and syncope, especially in the setting of polypharmacy and possibly, a hot and dry climate. The objective of the present study was to investigate whether the results of our prior study involving continued use of antihypertensive drugs at the same dosage in the summer as in the winter months for patients living in the Sonoran desert resulted in an increase in syncopal episodes during the hot summer months. All hypertensive patients who were treated with medications and admitted with International Classification of Diseases, 9th Revision code diagnosis of syncope were included. This is a 3-year retrospective chart review study. They were defined as "cases" if they presented during the summer months (May to September) and "controls" if they presented during the winter months (November to March). The primary outcome measure was the presence of clinical dehydration. The statistical significance was determined using the 2-sided Fisher's exact test. A total of 834 patients with an International Classification of Diseases, 9th Revision code diagnosis of syncope were screened: 477 in the summer months and 357 in the winter months. In patients taking antihypertensive medications, there was a significantly higher number of cases of syncope secondary to dehydration during the summer months (40.5%) compared with the winter months (29%) (P = .04). No difference was observed in the type of antihypertensive medication used and syncope rate. The number of antihypertensives used did not increase the cases of syncope in either summer or winter. An increased number of syncope events was observed in the summer months among people who reside in a dry desert climate and who are taking antihypertensive medications. The data confirm our earlier observations that demonstrated a greater number of cases of syncope among people who reside in a dry desert climate who were taking antihypertensive medications during summer months. We recommend judicious reduction of antihypertensive therapy in patients residing in a hot and dry climate, particularly during the summer months. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Detecting Climate Signals in Precipitation Extremes from TRMM (1998-2013) - Increasing Contrast Between Wet and Dry Extremes During the "Global Warming Hiatus"

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wu, Huey-Tzu Jenny; Lau, William K.-M.

2016-01-01

We investigate changes in daily precipitation extremes using Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) data (1998-2013), which coincides with the "global warming hiatus." Results show a change in probability distribution functions of local precipitation events (LPEs) during this period consistent with previous global warming studies, indicating increasing contrast between wet and dry extremes, with more intense LPE, less moderate LPE, and more dry (no rain) days globally. Analyses for land and ocean separately reveal more complex and nuanced changes over land, characterized by a strong positive trend (+12.0% per decade, 99% confidence level (c.l.)) in frequency of extreme LPEs over the Northern Hemisphere extratropics during the wet season but a negative global trend (-6.6% per decade, 95% c.l.) during the dry season. A significant global drying trend (3.2% per decade, 99% c.l.) over land is also found during the dry season. Regions of pronounced increased dry events include western and central U.S., northeastern Asia, and Southern Europe/Mediterranean.

Competitive ability of tall fescue against alfalfa as a function of summer dormancy, endophyte infection and soil moisture availability

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Summer-dormant cool-season grasses might be a viable component of pasture if Mediterranean and Mediterranean-type environments with relative mild winters and hot and dry summers. Management practices for summer-dormant forages are being developed, including production strategies with compatible leg...

Temperature extremes in Alaska: temporal variability and circulation background

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sulikowska, Agnieszka; Walawender, Jakub P.; Walawender, Ewelina

2018-06-01

The aims of this study are to characterize the spatial and temporal variability of extremely warm days (WDs) and warm spells (WSs) in summer as well as extremely cold days (CDs) and cold spells (CSs) in winter in Alaska in the years 1951-2015 and to determine the role of atmospheric circulation in their occurrence. The analysis is performed using daily temperature maxima (T MAX) and minima (T MIN) measured at 10 weather stations in Alaska as well as mean daily values of sea level pressure and wind direction at the 850 hPa isobaric level. WD (CD) is defined as a day with T MAX above the 95th (T MIN below the 5th) percentile of a probability density function calculated from observations, and WS (CS) equals at least three consecutive WDs (CDs). Frequency of the occurrence and severity of warm and cold extremes as well as duration of WSs and CSs is analyzed. In order to characterize synoptic conditions during temperature extremes, the objective classification scheme of advection types considering jointly the direction of the air influx and type of pressure system is employed. The results show that the general trend is towards the warmer temperatures, and the warming is greater in the winter than summer and for T MAX as opposed to T MIN. This is reflected in changes in the frequency of occurrence and intensity of temperature extremes which are much more pronounced in the case of winter cold extremes (decreasing tendencies) than summer warm extremes (increasing tendencies). The occurrence of temperature extremes is generally favored by anticyclonic weather with advection direction indicating air mass flows from the interior of the North American continent as well as the south (warm extremes in summer) and north (cold extremes in winter).

Evaluating cumulative effects of logging and potential climate change on dry-season flow in a coast redwood forest

Treesearch

Leslie Reid; Jack Lewis

2011-01-01

Comparisons based on pretreatment calibrations between summer flows and antecedent precipitation indices (APIs) at the Caspar Creek Experimental Watersheds show increased dry-season flow for 8 yr after selective logging, followed by at least 27 yr of depressed flow. In contrast, summer flow in a partially clearcut watershed remained higher than expected for 18 yr after...

Rising Mediterranean Sea Surface Temperatures Amplify Extreme Summer Precipitation in Central Europe

PubMed Central

Volosciuk, Claudia; Maraun, Douglas; Semenov, Vladimir A.; Tilinina, Natalia; Gulev, Sergey K.; Latif, Mojib

2016-01-01

The beginning of the 21st century was marked by a number of severe summer floods in Central Europe associated with extreme precipitation (e.g., Elbe 2002, Oder 2010 and Danube 2013). Extratropical storms, known as Vb-cyclones, cause summer extreme precipitation events over Central Europe and can thus lead to such floodings. Vb-cyclones develop over the Mediterranean Sea, which itself strongly warmed during recent decades. Here we investigate the influence of increased Mediterranean Sea surface temperature (SST) on extreme precipitation events in Central Europe. To this end, we carry out atmosphere model simulations forced by average Mediterranean SSTs during 1970–1999 and 2000–2012. Extreme precipitation events occurring on average every 20 summers in the warmer-SST-simulation (2000–2012) amplify along the Vb-cyclone track compared to those in the colder-SST-simulation (1970–1999), on average by 17% in Central Europe. The largest increase is located southeast of maximum precipitation for both simulated heavy events and historical Vb-events. The responsible physical mechanism is increased evaporation from and enhanced atmospheric moisture content over the Mediterranean Sea. The excess in precipitable water is transported from the Mediterranean Sea to Central Europe causing stronger precipitation extremes over that region. Our findings suggest that Mediterranean Sea surface warming amplifies Central European precipitation extremes. PMID:27573802

Aerosol impacts on regional trends in atmospheric stagnation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mascioli, N. R.; Fiore, A. M.; Previdi, M. J.

2017-12-01

Extreme pollution events pose a significant threat to human health and are a leading cause of premature mortality worldwide. While emissions of atmospheric pollutants and their precursors are projected to decrease in the future due to air quality legislation, future climate change may affect the underlying meteorological conditions that contribute to extreme pollution events. Stagnation events, characterized by weak winds and an absence of precipitation, contribute to extreme pollution by halting the removal of pollutants via advection and wet deposition. Here, we use a global climate model (GFDL-CM3) to show that regional stagnation trends over the historical period (1860-2005) are driven by changes in anthropogenic aerosol emissions, rather than rising greenhouse gases. In the northeastern and central United States, aerosol-induced changes in surface and upper level winds have produced significant decreases in the number of stagnant summer days, while decreasing precipitation in the southeast US has increased the number of stagnant summer days. Significant drying over eastern China in response to aerosol forcing contributed to increased stagnation. Additionally, this region was found to be particularly sensitive to changes in local emissions, indicating that improving air quality will also lessen stagnation. In Europe, we find a dipole pattern wherein stagnation decreases over southern Europe and increases over northern Europe in response to global increases in aerosol emissions. We hypothesize that this is due to changes in the large-scale circulation patterns associated with a poleward shift of the North Atlantic storm track. We find that in the future, the combination of declining aerosol emissions and the continued rise of greenhouse gas emissions will lead to a reversal of the historical stagnation trends.

[Effects of controlled release nitrogen fertilizer application on dry matter accumulation and nitrogen balance of summer maize].

PubMed

Si, Dong-Xia; Cui, Zhen-Ling; Chen, Xin-Ping; Lü, Fu-Tang

2014-06-01

Effects of four controlled release nitrogen (N) fertilizers, including two kinds of polyester coated urea (Ncau, CRU) and phosphate (NhnP) and humic acid (NhnF) coated urea on assimilates accumulation and nitrogen balance of summer maize were investigated in a mode of one-time fertilization at the regional N recommended rate. The results showed that the N release curves of the two controlled release fertilizers CRU and Ncau matched well with the summer maize N uptake. Compared with the regional N recommendation rate, CRU could increase maize yield by 4.2% and Ncau could maintain the same yield level. CRU significantly increased the dry matter accumulation rate after anthesis of summer maize, but Ncau markedly increased the dry matter accumulated ratio before anthesis. Meanwhile, CRU could reduce the apparent N losses by 19 kg N x hm(-2) in the case of large precipitation. However, NhnF and NhnP caused the yield losses by 0.1%-8.9%, and enhanced the apparent N losses. Therefore, both CRU and Ncau with one-time fertilization could be a simplified alternative to the "total control, staging regulation" fertilization technique at the regional N recommended rate for summer maize production.

Simulated trends of extreme climate indices for the Carpathian basin using outputs of different regional climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pongracz, R.; Bartholy, J.; Szabo, P.; Pieczka, I.; Torma, C. S.

2009-04-01

Regional climatological effects of global warming may be recognized not only in shifts of mean temperature and precipitation, but in the frequency or intensity changes of different climate extremes. Several climate extreme indices are analyzed and compared for the Carpathian basin (located in Central/Eastern Europe) following the guidelines suggested by the joint WMO-CCl/CLIVAR Working Group on climate change detection. Our statistical trend analysis includes the evaluation of several extreme temperature and precipitation indices, e.g., the numbers of severe cold days, winter days, frost days, cold days, warm days, summer days, hot days, extremely hot days, cold nights, warm nights, the intra-annual extreme temperature range, the heat wave duration, the growing season length, the number of wet days (using several threshold values defining extremes), the maximum number of consecutive dry days, the highest 1-day precipitation amount, the greatest 5-day rainfall total, the annual fraction due to extreme precipitation events, etc. In order to evaluate the future trends (2071-2100) in the Carpathian basin, daily values of meteorological variables are obtained from the outputs of various regional climate model (RCM) experiments accomplished in the frame of the completed EU-project PRUDENCE (Prediction of Regional scenarios and Uncertainties for Defining EuropeaN Climate change risks and Effects). Horizontal resolution of the applied RCMs is 50 km. Both scenarios A2 and B2 are used to compare past and future trends of the extreme climate indices for the Carpathian basin. Furthermore, fine-resolution climate experiments of two additional RCMs adapted and run at the Department of Meteorology, Eotvos Lorand University are used to extend the trend analysis of climate extremes for the Carpathian basin. (1) Model PRECIS (run at 25 km horizontal resolution) was developed at the UK Met Office, Hadley Centre, and it uses the boundary conditions from the HadCM3 GCM. (2) Model RegCM3 (run at 10 km horizontal resolution) was developed by Giorgi et al. and it is available from the ICTP (International Centre for Theoretical Physics). Analysis of the simulated daily temperature datasets suggests that the detected regional warming is expected to continue in the 21st century. Cold temperature extremes are projected to decrease while warm extremes tend to increase significantly. Expected changes of annual precipitation indices are small, but generally consistent with the detected trends of the 20th century. Based on the simulations, extreme precipitation events are expected to become more intense and more frequent in winter, while a general decrease of extreme precipitation indices is expected in summer.

Changing Summer Precipitation Pattern Alters Microbial Community Response to Fall Wet-up in a Mediterranean Soil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barnard, R. L.; Osborne, C. A.; Firestone, M. K.

2014-12-01

The large soil CO2 efflux associated with rewetting dry soils after the dry summer period significantly contributes to the annual carbon budget of Mediterranean grasslands. Rapid reactivation of soil heterotrophic activity and a pulse of available carbon are both required to fuel the CO2 pulse. Better understanding of the effects of altered summer precipitation on the metabolic state of indigenous microorganisms may be important in predicting future changes in carbon cycling. Here, we investigated the effects of a controlled rewetting event on the soil CO2 efflux pulse and on the present (DNA-based) and potentially active (rRNA-based) soil bacterial and fungal communities in intact soil cores previously subjected to three different precipitation patterns over four months (full summer dry season, extended wet season, and absent dry season). Phylogenetic marker genes for bacteria (16S) and fungi (28S) were sequenced before and after rewetting, and the abundance of these genes and transcripts was measured. Even after having experienced markedly different antecedent water conditions, the potentially active bacterial communities showed a consistent wet-up response. Moreover, we found a significant positive relation between the extent of change in the structure of the potentially active bacterial community and the magnitude of the CO2 pulse upon rewetting dry soils. We suggest that the duration of severe dry conditions (predicted to change under future climate) is important in conditioning the response potential of the soil bacterial community to wet-up as well as in framing the magnitude of the associated CO2 pulse.

Permafrost as an additional driving factor for the extreme fire event in the boreal Baikal region in 2003

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Forkel, M.; Thonicke, K.; Beer, C.; Cramer, W.; Bartalev, S.; Schmullius, C.

2012-04-01

Wildfires are a natural and important element in the functioning of boreal forests. However, in some years, fires with extreme spread and severity occur. Such severe fires degrade the forest, affect human values, emit huge amount of carbon and aerosols and alter the land surface albedo. Usually, wind, slope, and dry conditions have been recognized as factors determining fire spread. In the Baikal region, 127,000 km2 burned in 2003, while the annual average burned area is approx. 8100 km2. In average years, 16% of the burned area occurred in the continuous permafrost zone but in 2003, 33% of these burned areas coincide with the existence of permanently frozen grounds. Permafrost and the associated upper active layer, which thaws during summer and refreezes during winter, is an important supply for soil moisture in boreal ecosystems. This leads to the question if permafrost hydrology is a potential additional driving factor for extreme fire events in boreal forests. Using temperature and precipitation data, we calculated the Nesterov index as indicator for fire weather conditions. Further, we used satellite observations of burned area and surface moisture, a digital elevation model, a land cover and a permafrost map to evaluate drivers for the temporal dynamic and spatial variability of surface moisture conditions and burned area in spring 2003. On the basis of time series decomposition, we separated the effect of drivers for fire activity on different time scales. We next computed cross-correlations to identify potential time lags between weather conditions, surface moisture and fire activity. Finally, we assessed the predictive capability of different combinations of driving variables for surface moisture conditions and burned area using multivariate spatial-temporal regression models. The results from this study demonstrate that permafrost in larch-dominated ecosystems regulates the inter-annual variability of surface moisture and thus increases the inter-annual variability of burned area. The drought conditions in spring 2003 were accelerated by the presence of permafrost because less water was stored in the upper active layer from the dry previous summer 2002 and the permafrost table prevents vegetative water uptake from deeper layers. In contrast, weather conditions (precipitation anomaly, Nesterov index) are weaker predictors for the 2003 fire event. Our analysis advances the understanding of complex interactions between the atmosphere, vegetation and soil on how feedback mechanisms can lead to extreme fire events. These findings emphasize the importance of a mechanistic coupling of soil thermodynamics, hydrology, and fire activity in earth system models for projecting climate change impacts over the next century.

A Tree-Ring Based Reconstruction (1725-present) of the Position of the Summer North Atlantic Jet Shows a 20th Century Northward Shift

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trouet, V.; Babst, F.

2014-12-01

The position and strength of the Northern Hemisphere polar jet are important modulators of mid-latitude weather extremes and the societal, ecosystem, and economic damage related to them. The position of the North Atlantic jet (NAJ) controls the location of the Atlantic storm track and anomalies in the NAJ position have been related to temperature and precipitation extremes over Europe. In summer, a southern NAJ regime can result in floods in the British Isles (BRIT) and increasing odds of heat waves in the northeastern Mediterranean (NEMED). Variability in the amplitude and speed of the Northern Hemisphere jet stream is hotly debated as a potential mechanism linking recent mid-latitude weather extremes to anthropogenic warming. However, the hypothesis of jet stream variability as a possible mechanism linking Arctic amplification to mid-latitude weather extremes is largely based on data sets with limited temporal extent that do not warrant robust results from a statistical significance perspective. Here, we combined two summer temperature-sensitive tree-ring records from BRIT and NEMED to reconstruct interannual variability in the latitudinal position of the summer NAJ back to 1725. The two well-replicated temperature proxies counter-correlate significantly over the full period and thus illustrate the temperature dipole generated by anomalous NAJ positions. Positive extremes in the NAJ reconstruction correspond to heatwaves recorded in the historical Central England temperature record and negative extremes correspond to reconstructed fire years in Greece. The reconstruction shows a northward shift in the latitudinal NAJ position since the 1930s that is most pronounced in the northern NAJ extremes, suggesting a more frequent occurrence of BRIT hot summers in the 20th century compared to previous centuries.

Role of resolution in regional climate change projections over China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shi, Ying; Wang, Guiling; Gao, Xuejie

2017-11-01

This paper investigates the sensitivity of projected future climate changes over China to the horizontal resolution of a regional climate model RegCM4.4 (RegCM), using RCP8.5 as an example. Model validation shows that RegCM performs better in reproducing the spatial distribution and magnitude of present-day temperature, precipitation and climate extremes than the driving global climate model HadGEM2-ES (HadGEM, at 1.875° × 1.25° degree resolution), but little difference is found between the simulations at 50 and 25 km resolutions. Comparison with observational data at different resolutions confirmed the added value of the RCM and finer model resolutions in better capturing the probability distribution of precipitation. However, HadGEM and RegCM at both resolutions project a similar pattern of significant future warming during both winter and summer, and a similar pattern of winter precipitation changes including dominant increase in most areas of northern China and little change or decrease in the southern part. Projected precipitation changes in summer diverge among the three models, especially over eastern China, with a general increase in HadGEM, little change in RegCM at 50 km, and a mix of increase and decrease in RegCM at 25 km resolution. Changes of temperature-related extremes (annual total number of daily maximum temperature > 25 °C, the maximum value of daily maximum temperature, the minimum value of daily minimum temperature in the three simulations especially in the two RegCM simulations are very similar to each other; so are the precipitation-related extremes (maximum consecutive dry days, maximum consecutive 5-day precipitation and extremely wet days' total amount). Overall, results from this study indicate a very low sensitivity of projected changes in this region to model resolution. While fine resolution is critical for capturing the spatial variability of the control climate, it may not be as important for capturing the climate response to homogeneous forcing (in this case greenhouse gas concentration changes).

Use of Climatological Data in Weather Insurance.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Changnon, Stanley A.; Changnon, Joyce M.

1990-05-01

There are three major types of crop-related weather insurance: hail, all perlis, and rain insurance. The development of rates is an exercise in applied climatology, and the importance of the historical data selected for assessing risk (and developing rates) is revealed by the problems encountered by firms insuring against deficient summer rainfall during the drought of 1988. Extensive purchase of premiums costing $9 million for coverage ($400 million) in the Midwest occurred with buyers (farmers) apparently aware during May and June 1988 that an unusually dry event was in progress. The levels of loss (50% or less of average June-August rainfall) offered by insurance firms were exceeded throughout the Midwest. The firms attempted to refund the record number of premiums accepted in June, and in turn, 8000 farmers filed a class-action suit against the firms for failure to accept premiums and to provide coverage. The insurance firms ultimately settled by agreeing to pay $48 million in claims. The coverage offered was based on the most recent 25 years of data, and this unusually wet period did not represent the longer-term likelihood of areally extensive dry summers. Uses of climatic data by the insurance industry include planning for the occurrence of such extreme event considerations, plus point vs area probabilities of these anomalous events; choosing the periods to select for routinely establishing new rates (rerating is typically done an 2- to 10-year cycles); and for determining the averages most appropriate to use for rate levels and sales considerations.

Atmospheric conditions and weather regimes associated with extreme winter dry spells over the Mediterranean basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raymond, Florian; Ullmann, Albin; Camberlin, Pierre; Oueslati, Boutheina; Drobinski, Philippe

2018-06-01

Very long dry spell events occurring during winter are natural hazards to which the Mediterranean region is extremely vulnerable, because they can lead numerous impacts for environment and society. Four dry spell patterns have been identified in a previous work. Identifying the main associated atmospheric conditions controlling the dry spell patterns is key to better understand their dynamics and their evolution in a changing climate. Except for the Levant region, the dry spells are generally associated with anticyclonic blocking conditions located about 1000 km to the Northwest of the affected area. These anticyclonic conditions are favourable to dry spell occurrence as they are associated with subsidence of cold and dry air coming from boreal latitudes which bring low amount of water vapour and non saturated air masses, leading to clear sky and absence of precipitation. These extreme dry spells are also partly related to the classical four Euro-Atlantic weather regimes are: the two phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation, the Scandinavian "blocking" or "East-Atlantic", and the "Atlantic ridge". Only the The "East-Atlantic", "Atlantic ridge" and the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation are frequently associated with extremes dry spells over the Mediterranean basin but they do not impact the four dry spell patterns equally. Finally long sequences of those weather regimes are more favourable to extreme dry spells than short sequences. These long sequences are associated with the favourable prolonged and reinforced anticyclonic conditions

Effect of climatic conditions on the development of soil water repellency in soils treated with the wastewater of the olive oil production

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schaumann, Gabriele E.; Peikert, Benjamin; Tamimi, Nesreen; Steinmetz, Zacharias; Fischer, Jonas; Bibus, Daniel; Marei Sawalha, Amer; Dag, Arnon

2014-05-01

The disposal of untreated wastewater on soil can induce severe water repellency. The final degree of water repellency may strongly depend on the environmental conditions prevailing during and after disposal. Also unpolluted soil can develop severe water repellency upon exposure to extreme heat or draught events. The induced water repellency can be either persistent or of transient nature. However, the underlying mechanisms are not yet completely understood. The objective of this study was to investigate how climatic conditions determine the development and persistence of water repellency following wastewater disposal. Our hypothesis was that amphiphilic organic wastewater compounds physically sorb onto surfaces, which renders them hydrophobic. Depending on temperature and moisture, those compounds are degraded, chemically incorporated into SOM, or irreversibly sorbed to soil particles during the time after the first waste water-soil contact. According to our hypothesis, biological communities favor degradation and transformation of OM of waste water into SOM under moist soil conditions. This would reduce the initial hydrophobization. In contrast, drying irreversibly renders soil hydrophobic and phytotoxic due to immobilization of OMW OM in the soil. To test these hypotheses, we investigated effects of olive mil wastewater (OMW), the effluent originating from olive oil production, directly applied to soil. In Israel and Palastine, olive oil production generates large amounts of OMW within a short period of time between November and January. As sewage facilities do not accept OMW, it is often disposed onto soil, which leads to severe soil and groundwater pollution. If the above mentioned hypotheses match, pollution and hydrophobization might be minimized if the wastewater is discharged at the right time of the year. In order to test this, we conducted field (2-3 years) and laboratory (60 days) experiments in Israel (Gilat, arid climate) and in the West Bank (Bait Reema, Mediterranean climate) to assess the effect of climatic conditions during OMW application on the development of water repellency as a function of time. In the field experiments, OMW was applied to the soil in winter, spring, and summer, the latter with and without subsequent irrigation to keep the field moist for at least 6 weeks after OMW application. Most effects were strongest for the summer scenario without additional irrigation (field and lab) where the field effect persisted for at least 6 months. In contrast, summer application on moist soil only resulted in a slight and temporarily enhanced water repellency. Spring application induced a clearly less severe water repellency than summer application under dry conditions. Water repellency in the field developed more dramatically and with higher persistence in Gilat, which can be explained by its coarser soil texture but also by the more arid conditions. Repellency developed gradually during the hot summer time following OMW application in spring and summer plots and in the summer scenario of the lab incubation experiments, suggesting a contribution of abiotic processes inducing repellency. The results clearly show that extreme heat and/or drought may induce persistent water repellency and that abiotic and physicochemical mechanisms including drought-induced, irreversible sorption of amphiphilic substances to soil particles are capable to render water repellency persistent.

Spatiotemporal variation in heat-related out-of-hospital cardiac arrest during the summer in Japan.

PubMed

Onozuka, Daisuke; Hagihara, Akihito

2017-04-01

Although several studies have reported the impacts of extremely high temperature on cardiovascular diseases, few studies have investigated the spatiotemporal variation in the incidence of out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) due to extremely high temperature in Japan. Daily OHCA data from 2005 to 2014 were acquired from all 47 prefectures of Japan. We used time-series Poisson regression analysis combined with a distributed lag non-linear model to assess the temporal variability in the effects of extremely high temperature on OHCA incidence in each prefecture, adjusted for time trends. Spatial variability in the relationships between extremely high temperature and OHCA between prefectures was estimated using a multivariate random-effects meta-analysis. We analyzed 166,496 OHCA cases of presumed cardiac origin occurring during the summer (June to September) that met the inclusion criteria. The minimum morbidity percentile (MMP) was the 51st percentile of temperature during the summer in Japan. The overall cumulative relative risk at the 99th percentile vs. the MMP over lags 0-10days was 1.21 (95% CI: 1.12-1.31). There was also a strong low temperature effect during the summer periods. No substantial difference in spatial or temporal variability was observed over the study period. Our study demonstrated spatiotemporal homogeneity in the risk of OHCA during periods of extremely high temperature between 2005 and 2014 in Japan. Our findings suggest that public health strategies for OHCA due to extremely high temperatures should be finely adjusted and should particularly account for the unchanging risk during the summer. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Seasonal changes in morphophysiological traits of two native Patagonian shrubs from Argentina with different drought resistance strategies.

PubMed

Varela, M Celeste; Reinoso, Herminda; Luna, Virginia; Cenzano, Ana M

2018-06-01

In semi-arid regions, plants develop various biochemical and physiological strategies to adapt to dry periods. Understanding the resistance mechanisms to dry periods under field conditions is an important topic in ecology. Larrea divaricata and Lycium chilense provide various ecological services. The aim of this work is to elucidate new morpho-histological, biochemical and hormonal traits that contribute to the drought resistance strategies of two native shrubs. Green leaves and fine roots from L. divaricata and L. chilense were collected in each season for one year, and various traits were measured. The hormone (abscisic acid, ABA-glucose ester, gibberellins A 1 and A 3 , and indole acetic acid) contents were determined by liquid chromatography coupled to mass spectrometry. Rainfall data and the soil water content were also measured. A multivariate analysis showed that green leaves from L. divaricata showed high values for the leaf dry weight, blade leaf thickness and ABA content in the summer compared with those from L. chilense. Fine roots from L. divaricata had high RWC and high IAA levels during the autumn-dry period compared with those from L. chilense, but both had similar levels during the winter and spring. Our results support the notion that species with different drought resistance mechanisms (avoidance or tolerance) display different responses to dry periods throughout the year. Larrea divaricata, which exhibits more xerophytic traits, modified its morphology and maintained its physiological parameters (high RWC in leaves and roots, high ABA levels in leaves during summer, high GA 3 in leaves and high IAA in roots during autumn) to tolerate dry periods, whereas Lycium chilense, which displays more mesophytic traits, uses strategies to avoid dry periods (loss of leaves during autumn and winter, high RWC in leaves, high ABA-GE and GA 3 in leaves during summer, high GA 1 and GA 3 in roots during summer, and high IAA in roots during autumn and summer) and thus has a metabolism that is more dependent on water availability for growth. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Masson SAS.

Is precipitation a trigger for the onset of xylogenesis in Juniperus przewalskii on the north-eastern Tibetan Plateau?

PubMed Central

Ren, Ping; Rossi, Sergio; Gricar, Jozica; Liang, Eryuan; Cufar, Katarina

2015-01-01

Background and Aims A series of studies have shown that temperature triggers the onset of xylogenesis of trees after winter dormancy. However, little is known about whether and how moisture availability influences xylogenesis in spring in drought-prone areas. Methods Xylogenesis was monitored in five mature Qilian junipers (Juniperus przewalskii) by microcore sampling from 2009 to 2011 in a semi-arid area of the north-eastern Tibetan Plateau. A simple physical model of xylem cell production was developed and its sensitivity was analysed. The relationship between climate and growth was then evaluated, using weekly wood production data and climatic data from the study site. Key Results Delayed onset of xylogenesis in 2010 corresponded to a negative standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) value and a continuous period without rainfall in early May. The main period of wood formation was in June and July, and drier conditions from May to July led to a smaller number of xylem cells. Dry conditions in July could cause early cessation of xylem differentiation. The final number of xylem cells was mainly determined by the average production rate rather than the duration of new cell production. Xylem growth showed a positive and significant response to precipitation, but not to temperature. Conclusions Precipitation in late spring and summer can play a critical role in the onset of xylogenesis and xylem cell production. The delay in the initiation of xylogenesis under extremely dry conditions seems to be a stress-avoidance strategy against hydraulic failure. These findings could thus demonstrate an evolutionary adaptation of Qilian juniper to the extremely dry conditions of the north-eastern Tibetan Plateau. PMID:25725006

Diagnosing the Nature of Land-Atmosphere Coupling: A Case Study of Dry/Wet Extremes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Santanello, Joseph A., Jr.; Peters-Lidard, Christa; Kennedy, Aaron D.

2012-01-01

Land-atmosphere (L-A) interactions play a critical role in determining the diurnal evolution of land surface and planetary boundary layer (PBL) temperature and moisture states and fluxes. In turn, these interactions regulate the strength of the connection between surface moisture and precipitation in a coupled system. To address deficiencies in numerical weather prediction and climate models due to improper treatment of L-A interactions, recent studies have focused on development of diagnostics to quantify the strength and accuracy of the land-PBL coupling at the process-level. In this study, a diagnosis of the nature and impacts oflocalland-atmosphere coupling (LoCo) during dry and wet extreme conditions is presented using a combination of models and observations during the summers of2006-7 in the U.S. Southern Great Plains. Specifically, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model has been coupled to NASA's Land Information System (LIS), which provides a flexible and high-resolution representation and initialization of land surface physics and states. A range of diagnostics exploring the links and feedbacks between soil moisture and precipitation are examined for the dry/wet regimes of this region, along with the behavior and accuracy of different land-PBL scheme couplings under these conditions. In addition, we examine the impact of improved specification ofland surface states, anomalies, and fluxes that are obtained through the use of a hew optimization and uncertainty module in LIS, on the L-A coupling in WRF forecasts. Results demonstrate how LoCo diagnostics can be applied to coupled model components in the context of their integrated impacts on the process-chain connecting the land surface to the PBL and support of hydrological anomalies.

Summer syncope syndrome.

PubMed

Huang, Jennifer Juxiang; Sharda, Natasha; Riaz, Irbaz Bin; Alpert, Joseph S

2014-08-01

Antihypertensive therapy is associated with significant relative risk reductions in the incidence of heart failure, myocardial infarction, and stroke. However, a common adverse reaction to antihypertensive therapy is orthostatic hypotension, dehydration, and syncope. We propose that continued use of antihypertensive medications at the same dosage during the dry summer months in patients living in the Sonoran desert leads to an increase in syncopal episodes. All hypertensive patients who were treated with medications and admitted with International Classification of Diseases, 9th Revision code diagnosis of syncope were included. They were defined as "cases" if they presented during the summer months (May to September 2012) and "controls" if they presented during the winter months (November 2012 to March 2013). The primary outcome measure was the presence of clinical dehydration. The statistical significance was determined using the 2-sided Fisher exact test. A total of 496 patients with an International Classification of Diseases, 9th Revision code diagnosis of syncope were screened, and 179 patients were included in the final analysis. In patients taking antihypertensive medications, there were a significantly higher number of cases of syncope secondary to dehydration or orthostatic hypotension during the summer months (45%) compared with the winter months (26%) (P = .01). The incidence of syncope was significantly higher in older patients (63%) compared with younger individuals (37%) during the summer months. The incidence of syncope increases during the summer months among people who reside in a dry desert climate and who are taking antihypertensive medications. On the basis of our findings, we describe an easily preventable condition that we define as the "Summer Syncope Syndrome." We recommend judicious reduction of antihypertensive therapy in patients residing in a hot and dry climate, particularly during the summer months. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Lake evolution of the terminal area of Shiyang River drainage in arid China since the last glaciation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Shi, Q.; Chen, F.-H.; Zhu, Y.; Madsen, D.

2002-01-01

Investigations of geomorphology and sedimentology, and analyses of radiocarbon dates, grain size and carbonate of the sediment at the present-dry closed basin in the terminal area of Shiyang River in arid China were conducted to recover the history of palaeolake change since the last glacial. The terminal area was covered by eolian sand before 13,000 14C BP. Lacustrine deposits covered the eolian sand after 13,000 14C BP, but were succeeded rapidly by eolian or fluvial deposits ca. 11,200-10,000 BP. This fact plus the grain-size distribution and CaCO3 content showed that climate was extremely dry during the last glacial, but wet-dry oscillations characterized the late glacial. A single coalescent lake, over 45 m deep and 2130 km2, formed between 10,000-6400 14C BP in the basin. The lake disintegrated into several shallow carbonate lakes or swamps gradually after 6400 14C BP. Eolian sand reached into the most part of the basin during the period. The lake evolution in the area generally reflects the East Asian summer monsoon history forced by Northern hemisphere insolation. Short time-scale lake fluctuations also existed in the area since the last glacial. ?? 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd and INQUA. All rights reserved.

[Distribution characteristics of dissolved oxygen and its affecting factors in the Pearl River Estuary during the summer of the extremely drought hydrological year 2011].

PubMed

Ye, Feng; Huang, Xiao-ping; Shi, Zhen; Liu, Qing-xi

2013-05-01

More and more attention has focused on assessing impacts of extreme hydrologic events on estuarine ecosystem under the background of climate change. Based on a summer cruise conducted in the Pearl River Estuary in 2011 (extreme drought event), we have investigated the spatial distribution of dissolved oxygen (DO) and its relationships to water column stability, nutrient concentrations, and organic matter; besides, the major reason which caused the oxygen depletion was discussed. Under the influence of the extreme drought event, low bottom water dissolved oxygen was apparent in regions characterized by great depths, with an oxygen minimum value of 1.38 mg x L(-1). Statistical analysis shows significant correlations among deltaDO, deltaT, deltaS and deltaPOC. A comparison was conducted to show the mechanisms of oxygen depletion during the summers of 1999, 2009 and 2011, respectively. The result indicates that prolonged residence time of water due to the extremely low discharge and the subsequently decomposition of organic substance are major factors causing the formation of hypoxia during the summer drought in 2011. Despite the changing nutrient and organic matter regime in the Pearl River Estuary, there was no apparent trend in the minimum values of DO over the past 2 decades.

Extreme storm activity in North Atlantic and European region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vyazilova, N.

2010-09-01

The extreme storm activity study over North Atlantic and Europe includes the analyses of extreme cyclone (track number, integral cyclonic intensity) and extreme storm (track number) during winter and summer seasons in the regions: 1) 55°N-80N, 50°W-70°E; 2) 30°N-55°N, 50°W-70°E. Extreme cyclones were selected based on cyclone centre pressure (P<=970 mbar). Extreme storms were selected from extreme cyclones based on wind velocity on 925 mbar. The Bofort scala was used for this goal. Integral cyclonic intensity (for region) includes the calculation cyclone centers number and sum of MSLP anomalies in cyclone centers. The analyses based on automated cyclone tracking algorithm, 6-hourly MSLP and wind data (u and v on 925 gPa) from the NCEP/NCAR reanalyses from January 1948 to March 2010. The comparision of mean, calculated for every ten years, had shown, that in polar region extreme cyclone and storm track number, and integral cyclonic intensity gradually increases and have maximum during last years (as for summer, as for winter season). Every ten years means for summer season are more then for winter season, as for polar, as for tropical region. Means (ten years) for tropical region are significance less then for polar region.

No Snow No Flow: How Montane Stream Networks Respond to Drought

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grant, G.; Nolin, A. W.; Selker, J. S.; Lewis, S.; Hempel, L. A.; Jefferson, A.; Walter, C.; Roques, C.

2015-12-01

Hydrologic extremes, such as drought, offer an exceptional opportunity to explore how runoff generation mechanisms and stream networks respond to changing precipitation regimes. The winter of 2014-2015 was the warmest on record in western Oregon, US, with record low snowpacks, and was followed by an anomalously warm, dry spring, resulting in historically low streamflows. But a year like 2015 is more than an outlier meteorological year. It provides a unique opportunity to test fundamental hypotheses for how montane hydrologic systems will respond to anticipated changes in amount and timing of recharge. In particular, the volcanic Cascade Mountains represent a "landscape laboratory" comprised of two distinct runoff regimes: the surface-flow dominated Western Cascade watersheds, with flashy streamflow regimes, rapid baseflow recession, and very low summer flows; and (b) the spring-fed High Cascade watersheds, with a slow-responding streamflow regime, and a long and sustained baseflow recession that maintains late summer streamflow through deep-groundwater contributions to high volume, coldwater springs. We hypothesize that stream network response to the extremely low snowpack and recharge varies sharply in these two regions. In surface flow dominated streams, the location of channel heads can migrate downstream, contracting the network longitudinally; wetted channel width and depth contract laterally as summer recession proceeds and flows diminish. In contrast, in spring-fed streams, channel heads "jump" to the next downstream spring when upper basin spring flow diminishes to zero. Downstream of flowing springs, wetted channel width and depth contract laterally as flows recede. To test these hypotheses, we conducted a field campaign to measure changing discharge, hydraulic geometry, and channel head location in both types of watersheds throughout the summer and early fall. Multiple cross-section sites were established on 6 streams representing both flow regime types on either side of the Cascade crest. We also took Isotopic water samples to determine recharge elevations of receding streams. Taken together these measurements reveal the processes by which drainage networks contract as flows diminish - a fundamental property of montane stream systems both now and in the future.

The impact of CO2 fertilization and historical land use/land cover change on regional climate extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Findell, Kirsten; Berg, Alexis; Gentine, Pierre; Krasting, John; Lintner, Benjamin; Malyshev, Sergey; Santanello, Joseph; Shevliakova, Elena

2017-04-01

Recent research highlights the role of land surface processes in heat waves, droughts, and other extreme events. Here we use an earth system model (ESM) from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) to investigate the regional impacts of historical anthropogenic land use/land cover change (LULCC) and the vegetative response to changes in atmospheric CO2 on combined extremes of temperature and humidity. A bivariate assessment allows us to consider aridity and moist enthalpy extremes, quantities central to human experience of near-surface climate conditions. We show that according to this model, conversion of forests to cropland has contributed to much of the upper central US and central Europe experiencing extreme hot, dry summers every 2-3 years instead of every 10 years. In the tropics, historical patterns of wood harvesting, shifting cultivation and regrowth of secondary vegetation have enhanced near surface moist enthalpy, leading to extensive increases in the occurrence of humid conditions throughout the tropics year round. These critical land use processes and practices are not included in many current generation land models, yet these results identify them as critical factors in the energy and water cycles of the midlatitudes and tropics. Current work is targeted at understanding how CO2 fertilization of plant growth impacts water use efficiency and surface flux partitioning, and how these changes influence temperature and humidity extremes. We use this modeling work to explore how remote sensing can be used to determine how different forest ecosystems in different climatological regimes are responding to enhanced CO2 and a warming world.

Pan-European seasonal trends and recent changes of drought frequency and severity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spinoni, Jonathan; Naumann, Gustavo; Vogt, Jürgen V.

2017-01-01

In the last decades drought has become one of the natural disasters with most relevant impacts in Europe and this not only in water scarce areas such as the Mediterranean that are inclined to such events. As a complex natural phenomenon, drought is characterized by many hydro-meteorological aspects, a large variety of possible impacts and definitions. This study focuses on meteorological drought, investigated by using indicators that include precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (PET), i.e. the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). These indicators account for the lack of precipitation and the drying effects of hot temperatures and in this study have been computed for short-accumulation periods (3-month) to capture the seasonality of droughts. The input variables, monthly precipitation and temperature for 1950-2015, stem from daily gridded E-OBS data and indicators were computed on regular grids spanning over the whole of Europe. PET was calculated from minimum and maximum temperatures using the Hargreaves-Samani formulation. Monthly precipitation and PET have then been used to compute the SPI-3 and the SPEI-3 time series. From these series drought events were defined at seasonal scale and trends of frequency and severity of droughts and extreme droughts were analyzed for the periods 1950-2015 and 1981-2015. According to the SPI (driven by precipitation), results show a statistically significant tendency towards less frequent and severe drought events over North-Eastern Europe, especially in winter and spring, and a moderate opposite tendency over Southern Europe, especially in spring and summer. According to the SPEI (driven by precipitation and temperature), Northern Europe shows similar wetting patterns, while Southern and Eastern Europe show a more remarkable drying tendency, especially in summer and autumn. Both for frequency and severity, the evolution towards drier conditions is more relevant in the last three decades over Central Europe in spring, the Mediterranean area in summer, and Eastern Europe in autumn.

Precipitation Dynamics and Feedback mechanisms of the Arabian Desert

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burger, Roelof; Kucera, Paul; Piketh, Stuart; Axisa, Duncan; Chapman, Michael; Krauss, Terry; Ghulam, Ayman

2010-05-01

The subtropical Arabian desert extends across the entire Peninsula. The Arabian desert finds itself in the downward branch of the Hadley cell with persistent subsidence. This stabilizes the atmosphere and lowers the relative humidity. The result is a strongly capped convective boundary layer and an extremely dry mid troposphere. Most of the area experience very little rainfall, generally below 100 mm per year, resulting in the largest uninterrupted sand desert in the world. However, local factors such as an unbroken 1000 km escarpment along the Red Sea, rocky mountains between 2000 and 3000 m, and gravel plains cut by wadis, causes micro climates with significant altered precipitation characteristics. Altitude oases with annual rainfall between 200 mm and 500 mm are found on the Asir mountains in the south west and over the Jebel Akdhar mountains on the Gulf coast of Oman. This region receives most of its rainfall in the Northern Hemisphere summer driven by a monsoon trough and the ITCZ. During summer, moist surface winds from the Red Sea converges with dry easterlies triggering convection along the Asir escarpment on a daily basis. Clear mornings grow into a layer of Altocumulus stratiformis cumulogenites by noon, which usually last until sunset. This cloud deck interacts with large severe convective cells which grow to the top of the troposphere by mid afternoon. The north experience a mediterranean climate with eastward propagating midlatitude cyclones causing wintertime rainfall. Characteristic cloud bands form over the northern interior. Vertically layered embedded convective cells that are not coupled with the surface propagate on north easterly tracks. This result in another oasis with annual rainfall exceeding 200 mm. Surface based convection causes isolated thunderstorms during spring and early summer, but cloud bases increase as the season progress until the evaporating downdraft causes dust storms. In-situ measurements, WRF model runs, radiosonde ascends, radar and satellite data are used to explore these dynamics and the associated feedback mechanisms of precipitation over the Arabian desert.

Variation in the Asian monsoon intensity and dry-wet conditions since the Little Ice Age in central China revealed by an aragonite stalagmite

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yin, J.-J.; Yuan, D.-X.; Li, H.-C.; Cheng, H.; Li, T.-Y.; Edwards, R. L.; Lin, Y.-S.; Qin, J.-M.; Tang, W.; Zhao, Z.-Y.; Mii, H.-S.

2014-10-01

This paper focuses on the climate variability in central China since AD 1300, involving: (1) a well-dated, 1.5-year resolution stalagmite δ18O record from Lianhua Cave, central China (2) links of the δ18O record with regional dry-wet conditions, monsoon intensity, and temperature over eastern China (3) correlations among drought events in the Lianhua record, solar irradiation, and ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) variation. We present a highly precise, 230Th / U-dated, 1.5-year resolution δ18O record of an aragonite stalagmite (LHD1) collected from Lianhua Cave in the Wuling Mountain area of central China. The comparison of the δ18O record with the local instrumental record and historical documents indicates that (1) the stalagmite δ18O record reveals variations in the summer monsoon intensity and dry-wet conditions in the Wuling Mountain area. (2) A stronger East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) enhances the tropical monsoon trough controlled by ITCZ (Intertropical Convergence Zone), which produces higher spring quarter rainfall and isotopically light monsoonal moisture in the central China. (3) The summer quarter/spring quarter rainfall ratio in central China can be a potential indicator of the EASM strength: a lower ratio corresponds to stronger EASM and higher spring rainfall. The ratio changed from <1 to >1 after 1950, reflecting that the summer quarter rainfall of the study area became dominant under stronger influence of the Northwestern Pacific High. Eastern China temperatures varied with the solar activity, showing higher temperatures under stronger solar irradiation, which produced stronger summer monsoons. During Maunder, Dalton and 1900 sunspot minima, more severe drought events occurred, indicating a weakening of the summer monsoon when solar activity decreased on decadal timescales. On an interannual timescale, dry conditions in the study area prevailed under El Niño conditions, which is also supported by the spectrum analysis. Hence, our record illustrates the linkage of Asian summer monsoon precipitation to solar irradiation and ENSO: wetter conditions in the study area under stronger summer monsoon during warm periods, and vice versa. During cold periods, the Walker Circulation will shift toward the central Pacific under El Niño conditions, resulting in a further weakening of Asian summer monsoons.

Recent Very Hot Summers in Northern Hemispheric Land Areas Measured by Wet Bulb Globe Temperature Will Be the Norm Within 20 Years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Chao; Zhang, Xuebin; Zwiers, Francis; Fang, Yuanyuan; Michalak, Anna M.

2017-12-01

Wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) accounts for the effect of environmental temperature and humidity on thermal comfort, and can be directly related to the ability of the human body to dissipate excess metabolic heat and thus avoid heat stress. Using WBGT as a measure of environmental conditions conducive to heat stress, we show that anthropogenic influence has very substantially increased the likelihood of extreme high summer mean WBGT in northern hemispheric land areas relative to the climate that would have prevailed in the absence of anthropogenic forcing. We estimate that the likelihood of summer mean WGBT exceeding the observed historical record value has increased by a factor of at least 70 at regional scales due to anthropogenic influence on the climate. We further estimate that, in most northern hemispheric regions, these changes in the likelihood of extreme summer mean WBGT are roughly an order of magnitude larger than the corresponding changes in the likelihood of extreme hot summers as simply measured by surface air temperature. Projections of future summer mean WBGT under the RCP8.5 emissions scenario that are constrained by observations indicate that by 2030s at least 50% of the summers will have mean WBGT higher than the observed historical record value in all the analyzed regions, and that this frequency of occurrence will increase to 95% by mid-century.

Impacts of Snow Darkening by Absorbing Aerosols on Eurasian Climate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kim, Kyu-Myong; Lau, William K M.; Yasunari, Teppei J.; Kim, Maeng-Ki; Koster, Randal D.

2016-01-01

The deposition of absorbing aerosols on snow surfaces reduces snow-albedo and allows snowpack to absorb more sunlight. This so-called snow darkening effect (SDE) accelerates snow melting and leads to surface warming in spring. To examine the impact of SDE on weather and climate during late spring and early summer, two sets of NASA GEOS-5 model simulations with and without SDE are conducted. Results show that SDE-induced surface heating is particularly pronounced in Eurasian regions where significant depositions of dust transported from the North African deserts, and black carbon from biomass burning from Asia and Europe occur. In these regions, the surface heating due to SDE increases surface skin temperature by 3-6 degrees Kelvin near the snowline in spring. Surface energy budget analysis indicates that SDE-induced excess heating is associated with a large increase in surface evaporation, subsequently leading to a significant reduction in soil moisture, and increased risks of drought and heat waves in late spring to early summer. Overall, we find that rainfall deficit combined with SDE-induced dry soil in spring provide favorable condition for summertime heat waves over large regions of Eurasia. Increased frequency of summer heat waves with SDE and the region of maximum increase in heat-wave frequency are found along the snow line, providing evidence that early snowmelt by SDE may increase the risks of extreme summer heat wave. Our results suggest that climate models that do not include SDE may significantly underestimate the effect of global warming over extra-tropical continental regions.

Bioclimatic changes and landslide recurrence in the mountainous region of Rio de Janeiro: are we ready to face the next landslide disaster?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luiza Coelho Netto, Ana; Facadio, Ana Carolina; Pereira, Roberta; Lima, Pedro Henrique

2017-04-01

Paleo-environmental studies point out an alternation of wet and dry periods during the Holocene in southeastern Brazil, marked by the expansion and retraction of the humid tropical rainforest in alternation with the campos de altitude vegetation ('high altitude grassland'); successive episodes of natural fire were recorded from 10,000 to 4,000 years BP in the mountainous region of SE-Brazil, reflecting warm-dry conditions. Present seasonal climatic variability is indicated by an increasing dry spell frequency throughout the XX and early XXI centuries together with an increasing rainfall concentration in the summer when extreme daily totals (above 100 mm) become progressively more frequent. Historical land use changes, at both regional and local scales, are mostly related to this climatic variability. Therefore extreme rainfall induced landslides have been responsible for severe disasters as recorded along the Atlantic slopes of Serra do Mar. The extreme one occurred in January 2011, affecting the municipalities of Nova Friburgo, Teresópolis and Petrópolis. Studies in Nova Friburgo shown the occurrence of 3.622 landslides scars within an area of 421 km2; this rainfall event reached the expected average monthly rainfall (300 mm) in less than 10 hours. The D'Antas creek basin (53 km2) was the most affected area by landslides; 86% of 326 scars where associated with shallow translational mechanisms among which 67% occurred within shallow concave up topographic hollows of 32° slope angle in average. Most of these landslide scars occurred in granite rocks and degraded vegetation due to historical land use changes (last 200 years) including secondary forest (64%) and grasslands (25%). The present-day association between extreme rainfall induced landslides and human induced vegetation changes seem to reflect similar geomorphic responses to natural Holocene bioclimatic changes; a common phenomenon between the two periods is fire (natural fire in the past time and man-induced fire nowadays). Despite all field evidences on the relevance of landslides on hillslope evolution in the mountainous domain, local communities at risk and governmental institutions are not yet ready to face the next extreme rain event. Since November 2014 a new governance and risk management model has been developed in the Córrego D'Antas basin, through a multi-institutional network integrating local communities, university and governmental institutions as will be presented in this paper.

Construction of Real-time Forecast System on the Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, H.; Wheeler, M. C.; Lee, J.; Gottschalck, J.

2013-12-01

Hae-Jeong Kim1, Matthew C. Wheeler2, June-Yi Lee3 and Jon C. Gottschalck4 1APEC Climate Center, 12 Centum 7-ro, Haeundae-gu, Busan, 612-020, South Korea 2Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Australia 3Global Monsoon Climate Laboratory, Pusan National University, Busan, Korea 4Climate Prediction Center, NOAA/National Weather Service, Washington D. C., USA *E-mail : shout@apcc21.org The boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) is one of the dominant mode of variability in the Asian summer monsoon and global monsoon (e.g. Webster et al., 1998; Lee et al., 2013). The BSISO influences summer monsoon onsets (e.g. Wang and Xie, 1997) and interacts with a wide range of atmospheric circulation and associated weather (e.g. Lee et al., 2011; Wang et al., 2012). In addition, the wet and dry spells of the BSISO strongly can influence extreme hydro-meteorological events, major driving forces of natural disasters (Lau and Waliser 2005). Thus, it is important to monitor and predict the BSISO. As the occurrence of and concern over extreme climate events rises, moreover, the provision of high-quality BSISO forecasts will become increasingly relevant. APCC has recently begun to provide the BSISO forecast information service at http://www.apcc21.org/eng/service/bsiso/fore/japcc030601.jsp. The forecast is contributed by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, the US National Centers for Environmental Prediction, the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasts and UK Meteorology Office in cooperation with the CAS/WCRP Working Group on Numerical Experimentation (WGNE) Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) Task Force. The APCC BSISO forecasts are displayed by newly developed indices proposed by Lee at al. (2013) that are able to overcome the limitation of the RMM index (Wheeler and Hendon, 2004) in terms of representing BSISO activity with northward propagation over off-equatorial monsoon domain. The BSISO forecast information can be useful for coping with extreme climate events and can help mitigate the agricultural and socioeconomic impacts of these natural disasters. This activity is expected to improve our understanding on the model shortcomings and forecast ability of the BSISO by inducing the participation of various model into BSISO metric. Acknowledgement. We would like to gratefully and sincerely thank the forecast contributions to this activity that has been facilitated by a number of individuals including Andrew Marshall, Wanqiu Wang, Ann Shelly and Frederic Vitart. We also thank the member of the MJO Task Force for their cooperation.

Coarse-scale movement patterns of a small-bodied fish inhabiting a desert stream

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dzul, M.C.; Quist, M.C.; Dinsmore, S.J.; Gaines, D.B.; Bower, M.R.

2013-01-01

Located on the floor of Death Valley (CA, USA), Salt Creek harbors a single fish species, the Salt Creek pupfish, Cyprinodon salinus salinus, which has adapted to this extremely harsh environment. Salt Creek is fed by an underground spring and is comprised of numerous pools, runs, and marshes that exhibit substantial variability in temperature, salinity, and dissolved oxygen concentrations. In addition, the wetted area of Salt Creek is reduced throughout the summer months due to high rates of evaporation, with some reaches drying completely. Therefore, it seems logical that short- and long-term movement patterns may play an important role in Salt Creek pupfish population dynamics. The objective of this study was to describe coarse-scale movements of Salt Creek pupfish in Salt Creek during their breeding season from March to May. Sex ratios and length–frequency distributions varied spatially within Salt Creek, suggesting population segregation during the breeding season. Long-distance movements were generally rare, although two fish moved more than 1.2 km. Movement in upstream reaches was rare or absent, in contrast to the greater movement observed in downstream reaches (29% of recaptures). Temporal trends and demographic patterns in movement were not observed. Because the two most downstream habitats dry up in the summer, our results indicate that coarse-scale movements that re-populate downstream reaches likely occur during other times of year. Consequently, the importance of small- and large-scale movements is influenced by season. Further assessment of Salt Creek movement patterns conducted during other times of year may better illuminate long-distance movement patterns and source-sink dynamics.

A multimodel intercomparison of resolution effects on precipitation: simulations and theory

DOE PAGES

Rauscher, Sara A.; O?Brien, Travis A.; Piani, Claudio; ...

2016-02-27

An ensemble of six pairs of RCM experiments performed at 25 and 50 km for the period 1961–2000 over a large European domain is examined in order to evaluate the effects of resolution on the simulation of daily precipitation statistics. Application of the non-parametric two-sample Kolmorgorov–Smirnov test, which tests for differences in the location and shape of the probability distributions of two samples, shows that the distribution of daily precipitation differs between the pairs of simulations over most land areas in both summer and winter, with the strongest signal over southern Europe. Two-dimensional histograms reveal that precipitation intensity increases with resolutionmore » over almost the entire domain in both winter and summer. In addition, the 25 km simulations have more dry days than the 50 km simulations. The increase in dry days with resolution is indicative of an improvement in model performance at higher resolution, while the more intense precipitation exceeds observed values. The systematic increase in precipitation extremes with resolution across all models suggests that this response is fundamental to model formulation. Simple theoretical arguments suggest that fluid continuity, combined with the emergent scaling properties of the horizontal wind field, results in an increase in resolved vertical transport as grid spacing decreases. This increase in resolution-dependent vertical mass flux then drives an intensification of convergence and resolvable-scale precipitation as grid spacing decreases. In conclusion, this theoretical result could help explain the increasingly, and often anomalously, large stratiform contribution to total rainfall observed with increasing resolution in many regional and global models.« less

A multimodel intercomparison of resolution effects on precipitation: simulations and theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rauscher, Sara A.; O'Brien, Travis A.; Piani, Claudio; Coppola, Erika; Giorgi, Filippo; Collins, William D.; Lawston, Patricia M.

2016-10-01

An ensemble of six pairs of RCM experiments performed at 25 and 50 km for the period 1961-2000 over a large European domain is examined in order to evaluate the effects of resolution on the simulation of daily precipitation statistics. Application of the non-parametric two-sample Kolmorgorov-Smirnov test, which tests for differences in the location and shape of the probability distributions of two samples, shows that the distribution of daily precipitation differs between the pairs of simulations over most land areas in both summer and winter, with the strongest signal over southern Europe. Two-dimensional histograms reveal that precipitation intensity increases with resolution over almost the entire domain in both winter and summer. In addition, the 25 km simulations have more dry days than the 50 km simulations. The increase in dry days with resolution is indicative of an improvement in model performance at higher resolution, while the more intense precipitation exceeds observed values. The systematic increase in precipitation extremes with resolution across all models suggests that this response is fundamental to model formulation. Simple theoretical arguments suggest that fluid continuity, combined with the emergent scaling properties of the horizontal wind field, results in an increase in resolved vertical transport as grid spacing decreases. This increase in resolution-dependent vertical mass flux then drives an intensification of convergence and resolvable-scale precipitation as grid spacing decreases. This theoretical result could help explain the increasingly, and often anomalously, large stratiform contribution to total rainfall observed with increasing resolution in many regional and global models.

Impacts of climate variability and extreme events on soil hydrological processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramos, M. C.; Mulligan, M.

2003-04-01

The Mediterranean climate (dry subhumid), characterised by a high variability, produces in many situations an insufficient water supply to support stable agriculture. Not only is there insufficient rainfall, but its occurrence is also highly variable between years, during the year, and spatially, during a single rainfall event. One of the main climatic characteristics affecting the vulnerability of the Mediterranean region is the high intensity rainfalls which fall after a very dry summer and the high degree of climatic fluctuation in the short and long term, especially in rainfall quantity. In addition, the rainwater penetration and storage of water in the soil are conditioned by the soil characteristics, in some cases modified by changes in land use and with new management practices. The aim of this study was to evaluate the impact of this high variability, from year to year and through the year, on soil hydrological processes, in fields resulted of the mechanisation works in vineyards in a Mediterranean environment. The PATTERNlight model, a simplified two-dimensional version of the hydrological and growth PATTERN model (Mulligan, 1996) is used here to simulate the water balance for three situations: normal, wet and dry years. Ssignificant differences in soil moisture and recharge were observed under vine culture from year to year, giving rise very often, to critical situations for the development of the crops. The distribution of the rainfall through the year together with the intensity of the recorded rainfalls is much very significant for soil hydrology than the total annual rainfall. Very low soil moisture conditions are raised when spring rainfall is scarce, which contribute to exhaustion of profile soil water over the summer, especially if the antecedent soil moisture is low. This low soil moisture has a significant effect on the development of the vine crop. The simulations of leaf and root biomass carried out with the PATTERNLIGHT model indicate the differences in the development of the leaf biomass between wet and dry conditions, especially with dry springs. Wet conditions favour the development of root and leaf biomass in a significant way. Mulligan, M., 1996. Modelling the hydrology of vegetation competition in a degrade semiarid environment. PhD Theses. Department of Geography, King's College London, University of London.

Hydroclimatological Processes in the Central American Dry Corridor

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hidalgo, H. G.; Duran-Quesada, A. M.; Amador, J. A.; Alfaro, E. J.; Mora, G.

2015-12-01

This work studies the hydroclimatological variability and the climatic precursors of drought in the Central American Dry Corridor (CADC), a subregion located in the Pacific coast of Southern Mexico and Central America. Droughts are frequent in the CADC, which is featured by a higher climatological aridity compared to the highlands and Caribbean coast of Central America. The CADC region presents large social vulnerability to hydroclimatological impacts originated from dry conditions, as there is a large part of population that depends on subsistance agriculture. The influence of large-scale climatic precursors such as ENSO, the Caribbean Low-Level Jet (CLLJ), low frequency signals from the Pacific and Caribbean and some intra-seasonal signals such as the MJO are evaluated. Previous work by the authors identified a connection between the CLLJ and CADC precipitation. This connection is more complex than a simple rain-shadow effect, and instead it was suggested that convection at the exit of the jet in the Costa-Rica and Nicaragua Caribbean coasts and consequent subsidence in the Pacific could be playing a role in this connection. During summer, when the CLLJ is stronger than normal, the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (located mainly in the Pacific) displaces to a more southern position, and vice-versa, suggesting a connection between these two processes that has not been fully explained yet. The role of the Western Hemisphere Warm Pool also needs more research. All this is important, as it suggest a working hypothesis that during summer, the effect of the Caribbean wind strength may be responsible for the dry climate of the CADC. Another previous analysis by the authors was based on downscaled precipitation and temperature from GCMs and the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. The data was later used in a hydrological model. Results showed a negative trend in reanalysis' runoff for 1980-2012 in San José (Costa Rica) and Tegucigalpa (Honduras). This highly significant drying trend can be considered extreme when compared to the trends from 30 GCM runs for the same period. Also, drier conditions are expected at the end of the century for the Central American region. It is important to determine if these future changes are associated with strengthtening of the CLLJ, which could cause drier climate in the CADC at the end of the century.

Heavy metals in summer squash fruits grown in soil amended with municipal sewage sludge.

PubMed

Antonious, George F; Snyder, John C; Dennis, Sam O

2010-02-01

The increasing awareness of the value of vegetables and fruits in the human diet requires monitoring of heavy metals in food crops. The effects of amending soil with compost made from municipal sewage sludge (MSS) and MSS mixed with yard waste (MSS-YW) on Cd, Cr, Mo, Cu, Zn, Pb, and Ni concentrations in soil and the potential bioaccumulation of heavy metals in squash fruits at harvest were investigated. A field study was conducted in a silty-loam soil at Kentucky State University Research Farm. Eighteen plots of 22 x 3.7 m each were separated using metal borders and the soil in six plots was mixed with MSS at 15 t acre(-1), six plots were mixed with MSS-YW at 15 t acre(-1) (on dry weight basis), and six unamended plots (no-mulch) were used for comparison purposes. Plots were planted with summer squash and heavy metals were analyzed in soil and mature fruits at harvest. Analysis of heavy metals in squash fruits was conducted using inductively coupled plasma spectrometry. Zinc and Cu concentrations in soil mixed with MSS were extremely high compared to other metals. In squash fruits, concentrations of Zn were generally greater than Cu. Total squash marketable yield was greatest in MSS-YW and MSS treatments compared to no-mulch conventional soil. Concentrations of Cd and Pb in soil amended with MSS averaged 0.1 and 1.4 mg kg(-1), respectively. These levels were much lower than the limits in the U.S. guidelines for using MSS in land farming. Data revealed that maximum concentrations of Cd and Pb in squash fruits were 0.03 and 0.01 microg g(-1) dry fruit, respectively. Nickel concentration in squash fruits fluctuated among harvest dates reaching a maximum of 2.5 microg g(-1) dry fruit. However, these concentrations were far below their permissible limits in edible fruits.

Hydrologic processes in China and their association with summer precipitation anomalies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, M.; Pollard, D.; Barron, E. J.

2005-01-01

A climate version of MM5 is applied to study hydrologic processes in China and their association with precipitation anomalies in 1980 and 1985, which are two anomalous years with opposite signs of summer precipitation anomalies. The study reveals that anomalous atmospheric moisture transport due to synoptic scale circulation was primarily responsible for initiating the anomalous wet (dry) summer in south-central China and dry (wet) summer in northeastern China in 1980 (1985). The recycling ratio (defined as contribution of local evaporation to total precipitation) ranges from less than 4% in northwestern China to more than 30% in south-central China at 1000 km space scale. Higher (lower) values of recycling ratio correspond to drier (wetter) summers in south-central China and northeastern China. However, the opposite is true in northwestern China. The recycling ratio reflects feedback among hydrologic components over both land and atmosphere. In northwestern China, these feedbacks will further sustain drought events that are triggered by anomalous synoptic scale disturbances, and turn them into prolonged and possibly perpetual phenomenon. However, in south-central China and northeastern China, these feedbacks help reducing severity of drought. The large differences in recycling ratio between the dry and wet years of 1980 and 1985 are indicative of powerful feedback between hydrologic and climatic processes, and imply that surface-atmosphere interaction in China is highly sensitive to climatic perturbation.

Air-drying of Robusta eucalyptus lumber

Treesearch

Roger G. Skolmen

1964-01-01

A study of air-drying 4/4 Eucalyptus robusta lumber in Hilo, Hawaii showed that during typical summer weather it can be dried to below 20 percent moisture content in 2-1/2 months. Grade reduction in 36 percent of the lumber was caused by end splits, insect damage, warp, and surface checking.

Extreme weather-year sequences have nonadditive effects on environmental nitrogen losses.

PubMed

Iqbal, Javed; Necpalova, Magdalena; Archontoulis, Sotirios V; Anex, Robert P; Bourguignon, Marie; Herzmann, Daryl; Mitchell, David C; Sawyer, John E; Zhu, Qing; Castellano, Michael J

2018-01-01

The frequency and intensity of extreme weather years, characterized by abnormal precipitation and temperature, are increasing. In isolation, these years have disproportionately large effects on environmental N losses. However, the sequence of extreme weather years (e.g., wet-dry vs. dry-wet) may affect cumulative N losses. We calibrated and validated the DAYCENT ecosystem process model with a comprehensive set of biogeophysical measurements from a corn-soybean rotation managed at three N fertilizer inputs with and without a winter cover crop in Iowa, USA. Our objectives were to determine: (i) how 2-year sequences of extreme weather affect 2-year cumulative N losses across the crop rotation, and (ii) if N fertilizer management and the inclusion of a winter cover crop between corn and soybean mitigate the effect of extreme weather on N losses. Using historical weather (1951-2013), we created nine 2-year scenarios with all possible combinations of the driest ("dry"), wettest ("wet"), and average ("normal") weather years. We analyzed the effects of these scenarios following several consecutive years of relatively normal weather. Compared with the normal-normal 2-year weather scenario, 2-year extreme weather scenarios affected 2-year cumulative NO 3 - leaching (range: -93 to +290%) more than N 2 O emissions (range: -49 to +18%). The 2-year weather scenarios had nonadditive effects on N losses: compared with the normal-normal scenario, the dry-wet sequence decreased 2-year cumulative N 2 O emissions while the wet-dry sequence increased 2-year cumulative N 2 O emissions. Although dry weather decreased NO 3 - leaching and N 2 O emissions in isolation, 2-year cumulative N losses from the wet-dry scenario were greater than the dry-wet scenario. Cover crops reduced the effects of extreme weather on NO 3 - leaching but had a lesser effect on N 2 O emissions. As the frequency of extreme weather is expected to increase, these data suggest that the sequence of interannual weather patterns can be used to develop short-term mitigation strategies that manipulate N fertilizer and crop rotation to maximize crop N uptake while reducing environmental N losses. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Off-axis Integrated Cavity Output Spectrometer measurements of HDO/H2O ratio for understanding water transport in the Asian Summer Monsoon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clouser, B.; Moyer, E. J.; Sarkozy, L.

2016-12-01

The Asian monsoon is one of the main pathways by which water vapor enters the stratosphere. However, the pathways by which water is carried to the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere (UTLS) region and the monsoon contributions to the total stratospheric water budget are not well constrained. We describe here a new instrument for measuring the isotopic composition of water vapor in this region, a useful tracer of the convective and microphysical history of air parcels, and show preliminary results from studies of monsoon outflow in summer 2016. The Chicago Water Isotope Spectrometer (Chi-WIS) is an absorption spectroscopy instrument for measurements of HDO and H2O at 2.65 microns by integrated cavity output spectroscopy (ICOS), designed to sample the 14-21 km range from the M55 Geophysica aircraft. The instrument is rebuilt specifically for the StratoClim campaign to study the Asian monsoon effect on the UTLS region in 2016-2017. We discuss steps taken to maximize signal in this extremely cold and dry environment, explore the instrument's sensitivity limits, and discuss data from test flights sampling monsoon outflow.

Future Simulated Intensification of Precipitation Extremes, CMIP5 Model Uncertainties and Dependencies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bador, M.; Donat, M.; Geoffroy, O.; Alexander, L. V.

2017-12-01

Precipitation intensity during extreme events is expected to increase with climate change. Throughout the 21st century, CMIP5 climate models project a general increase in annual extreme precipitation in most regions. We investigate how robust this future increase is across different models, regions and seasons. We find that there is strong similarity in extreme precipitation changes between models that share atmospheric physics, reducing the ensemble of 27 models to 14 independent projections. We find that future simulated extreme precipitation increases in most models in the majority of land grid cells located in the dry, intermediate and wet regions according to each model's precipitation climatology. These increases significantly exceed the range of natural variability estimated from long equilibrium control runs. The intensification of extreme precipitation across the entire spectrum of dry to wet regions is particularly robust in the extra-tropics in both wet and dry season, whereas uncertainties are larger in the tropics. The CMIP5 ensemble therefore indicates robust future intensification of annual extreme rainfall in particular in extra-tropical regions. Generally, the CMIP5 robustness is higher during the dry season compared to the wet season and the annual scale, but inter-model uncertainties in the tropics remain important.

Future dryness in the southwest US and the hydrology of the early 21st century drought

PubMed Central

Cayan, Daniel R.; Das, Tapash; Pierce, David W.; Barnett, Tim P.; Tyree, Mary; Gershunov, Alexander

2010-01-01

Recently the Southwest has experienced a spate of dryness, which presents a challenge to the sustainability of current water use by human and natural systems in the region. In the Colorado River Basin, the early 21st century drought has been the most extreme in over a century of Colorado River flows, and might occur in any given century with probability of only 60%. However, hydrological model runs from downscaled Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment climate change simulations suggest that the region is likely to become drier and experience more severe droughts than this. In the latter half of the 21st century the models produced considerably greater drought activity, particularly in the Colorado River Basin, as judged from soil moisture anomalies and other hydrological measures. As in the historical record, most of the simulated extreme droughts build up and persist over many years. Durations of depleted soil moisture over the historical record ranged from 4 to 10 years, but in the 21st century simulations, some of the dry events persisted for 12 years or more. Summers during the observed early 21st century drought were remarkably warm, a feature also evident in many simulated droughts of the 21st century. These severe future droughts are aggravated by enhanced, globally warmed temperatures that reduce spring snowpack and late spring and summer soil moisture. As the climate continues to warm and soil moisture deficits accumulate beyond historical levels, the model simulations suggest that sustaining water supplies in parts of the Southwest will be a challenge. PMID:21149687

Future dryness in the Southwest US and the hydrology of the early 21st century drought

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cayan, D.R.; Das, T.; Pierce, D.W.; Barnett, T.P.; Tyree, Mary; Gershunova, A.

2010-01-01

Recently the Southwest has experienced a spate of dryness, which presents a challenge to the sustainability of current water use by human and natural systems in the region. In the Colorado River Basin, the early 21st century drought has been the most extreme in over a century of Colorado River flows, and might occur in any given century with probability of only 60%. However, hydrological model runs from downscaled Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment climate change simulations suggest that the region is likely to become drier and experience more severe droughts than this. In the latter half of the 21st century the models produced considerably greater drought activity, particularly in the Colorado River Basin, as judged from soil moisture anomalies and other hydrological measures. As in the historical record, most of the simulated extreme droughts build up and persist over many years. Durations of depleted soil moisture over the historical record ranged from 4 to 10 years, but in the 21st century simulations, some of the dry events persisted for 12 years or more. Summers during the observed early 21st century drought were remarkably warm, a feature also evident in many simulated droughts of the 21st century. These severe future droughts are aggravated by enhanced, globally warmed temperatures that reduce spring snowpack and late spring and summer soil moisture. As the climate continues to warm and soil moisture deficits accumulate beyond historical levels, the model simulations suggest that sustaining water supplies in parts of the Southwest will be a challenge.

Ssang Yong 2014 Remote Sensing Experiment

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-05-25

determination of the wet field density of soil. Dry density is calculated after the laboratory measurement of the field moisture content...28 Figure 5-9. Drying ovens used in field laboratory established...seasons. Winters are usually long, cold, and dry . Summers are generally short, hot, and humid. Spring and autumn are pleasant but short in duration

Photosynthetic response of Persian Gulf acroporid corals to summer versus winter temperature deviations

PubMed Central

Saleh, Abolfazl; Mehdinia, Ali; Shirvani, Arash; Kayal, Mohsen

2015-01-01

With on-going climate change, coral susceptibility to thermal stress constitutes a central concern in reefconservation. In the Persian Gulf, coral reefs are confronted with a high seasonal variability in water temperature, and both hot and cold extremes have been associated with episodes of coral bleaching and mortality. Using physiological performance as a measure of coral health, we investigated the thermal susceptibility of the common acroporid, Acropora downingi, near Hengam Island where the temperature oscillates seasonally in the range 20.2–34.2 °C. In a series of two short-term experiments comparing coral response in summer versus winter conditions, we exposed corals during each season (1) to the corresponding seasonal average and extreme temperature levels in a static thermal environment, and (2) to a progressive temperature deviation from the annual mean toward the corresponding extreme seasonal value and beyond in a dynamic thermal environment. We monitored four indictors of coral physiological performance: net photosynthesis (Pn), dark respiration (R), autotrophic capability (Pn/R), and survival. Corals exposed to warming during summer showed a decrease in net photosynthesis and ultimately died, while corals exposed to cooling during winter were not affected in their photosynthetic performance and survival. Coral autotrophic capability Pn/R was lower at the warmer thermal level within eachseason, and during summer compared to winter. Corals exposed to the maximum temperature of summer displayed Pn/R < 1, inferring that photosynthetic performance could not support basal metabolic needs under this environment. Our results suggest that the autotrophic performance of the Persian Gulf A. downingi is sensitive to the extreme temperatures endured in summer, and therefore its populations may be impacted by future increases in water temperature. PMID:26157627

Photosynthetic response of Persian Gulf acroporid corals to summer versus winter temperature deviations.

PubMed

Vajed Samiei, Jahangir; Saleh, Abolfazl; Mehdinia, Ali; Shirvani, Arash; Kayal, Mohsen

2015-01-01

With on-going climate change, coral susceptibility to thermal stress constitutes a central concern in reefconservation. In the Persian Gulf, coral reefs are confronted with a high seasonal variability in water temperature, and both hot and cold extremes have been associated with episodes of coral bleaching and mortality. Using physiological performance as a measure of coral health, we investigated the thermal susceptibility of the common acroporid, Acropora downingi, near Hengam Island where the temperature oscillates seasonally in the range 20.2-34.2 °C. In a series of two short-term experiments comparing coral response in summer versus winter conditions, we exposed corals during each season (1) to the corresponding seasonal average and extreme temperature levels in a static thermal environment, and (2) to a progressive temperature deviation from the annual mean toward the corresponding extreme seasonal value and beyond in a dynamic thermal environment. We monitored four indictors of coral physiological performance: net photosynthesis (Pn), dark respiration (R), autotrophic capability (Pn/R), and survival. Corals exposed to warming during summer showed a decrease in net photosynthesis and ultimately died, while corals exposed to cooling during winter were not affected in their photosynthetic performance and survival. Coral autotrophic capability Pn/R was lower at the warmer thermal level within eachseason, and during summer compared to winter. Corals exposed to the maximum temperature of summer displayed Pn/R < 1, inferring that photosynthetic performance could not support basal metabolic needs under this environment. Our results suggest that the autotrophic performance of the Persian Gulf A. downingi is sensitive to the extreme temperatures endured in summer, and therefore its populations may be impacted by future increases in water temperature.

Soil response to long-term projections of extreme temperature and precipitation in the southern La Plata Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pántano, Vanesa C.; Penalba, Olga C.

2017-12-01

Projected changes were estimated considering the main variables which take part in soil-atmosphere interaction. The analysis was focused on the potential impact of these changes on soil hydric condition under extreme precipitation and evapotranspiration, using the combination of Global Climate Models (GCMs) and observational data. The region of study is the southern La Plata Basin that covers part of Argentine territory, where rainfed agriculture production is one of the most important economic activities. Monthly precipitation and maximum and minimum temperatures were used from high quality-controlled observed data from 46 meteorological stations and the ensemble of seven CMIP5 GCMs in two periods: 1970-2005 and 2065-2100. Projected changes in monthly effective temperature and precipitation were analysed. These changes were combined with observed series for each probabilistic interval. The result was used as input variables for the water balance model in order to obtain consequent soil hydric condition (deficit or excess). Effective temperature and precipitation are expected to increase according to the projections of GCMs, with few exceptions. The analysis revealed increase (decrease) in the prevalence of evapotranspiration over precipitation, during spring (winter). Projections for autumn months show precipitation higher than potential evapotranspiration more frequently. Under dry extremes, the analysis revealed higher projected deficit conditions, impacting on crop development. On the other hand, under wet extremes, excess would reach higher values only in particular months. During December, projected increase in temperatures reduces the impact of extreme high precipitation but favours deficit conditions, affecting flower-fructification stage of summer crops.

Analysis of long-term changes in extreme climatic indices: a case study of the Mediterranean climate, Marmara Region, Turkey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abbasnia, Mohsen; Toros, Hüseyin

2018-05-01

This study aimed to analyze extreme temperature and precipitation indices at seven stations in the Marmara Region of Turkey for the period 1961-2016. The trend of temperature indices showed that the warm-spell duration and the numbers of summer days, tropical nights, warm nights, and warm days have increased, while the cold-spell duration and number of ice days, cool nights, and cool days have decreased across the Marmara Region. Additionally, the diurnal temperature range has slightly increased at most of the stations. A majority of stations have shown significant warming trends for warm days and warm nights throughout the study area, whereas warm extremes and night-time based temperature indices have shown stronger trends compared to cold extremes and day-time indices. The analysis of precipitation indices has mostly shown increasing trends in consecutive dry days and increasing trends in annual rainfall, rainfall intensity for inland and urban stations, especially for stations in Sariyer and Edirne, which are affected by a fast rate of urbanization. Overall, a large proportion of study stations have experienced an increase in annual precipitation and heavy precipitation events, although there was a low percentage of results that was significant. Therefore, it is expected that the rainfall events will tend to become shorter and more intense, the occurrence of temperature extremes will become more pronounced in favor of hotter events, and there will be an increase in the atmospheric moisture content over the Marmara Region. This provides regional evidence for the importance of ongoing research on climate change.

Spatial patterns of trends and teleconnections in climate indices relevant for Mexican maize

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dewes, C. F.

2013-05-01

This study contributes to the discussion of climate trends in Mexico and the influence of hemispheric-scale variability patterns over the period 1950-2008. Its uniqueness is three-fold. First, the choice of climate indices under scrutiny aims to represent an agro-climatic perspective, geared towards maize in particular because of the major role this crop plays in Mexico's culture, diet, and economy. Second, the spatial resolution and coverage of these findings can be useful for interpretations at the local level (i.e. district or state), yet keeping the broad national picture in perspective. This should be particularly useful to agro-climate forecasting, assessment of impacts, and/or policy development. Third, this study uncovers a dominance of the North Atlantic over the Pacific Ocean in respect to remote influences on trend patterns in Mexico. Trends in precipitation show that east of the central highlands, the rainy season is starting later and becoming drier. The same is occurring along the Pacific coastal plain, but there an increase in extreme events is also observed. For south-central Mexico and the Yucatán, rains not only are starting earlier but intensity and frequency of extreme events are also increasing. In some of these areas dry days are becoming more frequent. Trends in temperature suggest that highlands are warming at faster rates than lowlands, which in some places are actually cooling. Warming in the fall-winter growing season is more pronounced than in the spring-summer growing season. On the other hand, cold spells during mid-summer are becoming more frequent over the highlands. Connections were found between these trends and large-scale variability patterns, namely El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific North America (PNA), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and Caribbean sea surface temperatures (SSTs). Interannual variability related to ENSO and the PNA, and trends towards more Niño-like conditions, are associated with increasing precipitation over the Yucatán and a few areas along the southern Pacific coast, and with more dry days - though accompanied by stronger extreme precipitation events - over southwestern Mexico. They are also associated with a delaying start of the rainy season in a narrow area just east of the south-central highlands and higher risk of frost during late-winter up in the highlands. Increasing Caribbean SSTs are associated with increasing temperatures over the mainland and stronger precipitation over the Yucatán. Variability in the NAO and its trend towards more positive phases is associated the drying trend in central Mexico, intensification of precipitation over the northwest, and also increasing temperatures over the entire mainland in both the warm and cold growing seasons. The atmospheric circulation over the Atlantic Ocean and its increasing tropical SSTs, have a larger and broader participation in Mexican trends than is noted with the Pacific counterparts.

All Children Deserve Uninterrupted Learning!

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brown, Fred

2015-01-01

Teachers often start a new school year working extremely hard to reteach last year's content, particularly for their lower income students. According to "Making Summer Count," a report commissioned by The Wallace Foundation and written by researchers at Rand, rigorous studies of voluntary summer programs, mandatory summer programs, and…

Skillful prediction of hot temperature extremes over the source region of ancient Silk Road.

PubMed

Zhang, Jingyong; Yang, Zhanmei; Wu, Lingyun

2018-04-27

The source region of ancient Silk Road (SRASR) in China, a region of around 150 million people, faces a rapidly increased risk of extreme heat in summer. In this study, we develop statistical models to predict summer hot temperature extremes over the SRASR based on a timescale decomposition approach. Results show that after removing the linear trends, the inter-annual components of summer hot days and heatwaves over the SRASR are significantly related with those of spring soil temperature over Central Asia and sea surface temperature over Northwest Atlantic while their inter-decadal components are closely linked to those of spring East Pacific/North Pacific pattern and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation for 1979-2016. The physical processes involved are also discussed. Leave-one-out cross-validation for detrended 1979-2016 time series indicates that the statistical models based on identified spring predictors can predict 47% and 57% of the total variances of summer hot days and heatwaves averaged over the SRASR, respectively. When the linear trends are put back, the prediction skills increase substantially to 64% and 70%. Hindcast experiments for 2012-2016 show high skills in predicting spatial patterns of hot temperature extremes over the SRASR. The statistical models proposed herein can be easily applied to operational seasonal forecasting.

Modeling complex systems in the geosciences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Balcerak, Ernie

2013-03-01

Many geophysical phenomena can be described as complex systems, involving phenomena such as extreme or "wild" events that often do not follow the Gaussian distribution that would be expected if the events were simply random and uncorrelated. For instance, some geophysical phenomena like earthquakes show a much higher occurrence of relatively large values than would a Gaussian distribution and so are examples of the "Noah effect" (named by Benoit Mandelbrot for the exceptionally heavy rain in the biblical flood). Other geophysical phenomena are examples of the "Joseph effect," in which a state is especially persistent, such as a spell of multiple consecutive hot days (heat waves) or several dry summers in a row. The Joseph effect was named after the biblical story in which Joseph's dream of seven fat cows and seven thin ones predicted 7 years of plenty followed by 7 years of drought.

A 323-year long reconstruction of drought for SW Romania based on black pine (Pinus Nigra) tree-ring widths.

PubMed

Levanič, Tom; Popa, Ionel; Poljanšek, Simon; Nechita, Constantin

2013-09-01

Increase in temperature and decrease in precipitation pose a major future challenge for sustainable ecosystem management in Romania. To understand ecosystem response and the wider social consequences of environmental change, we constructed a 396-year long (1615-2010) drought sensitive tree-ring width chronology (TRW) of Pinus nigra var. banatica (Georg. et Ion.) growing on steep slopes and shallow organic soil. We established a statistical relationship between TRW and two meteorological parameters-monthly sum of precipitation (PP) and standardised precipitation index (SPI). PP and SPI correlate significantly with TRW (r = 0.54 and 0.58) and are stable in time. Rigorous statistical tests, which measure the accuracy and prediction ability of the model, were all significant. SPI was eventually reconstructed back to 1688, with extreme dry and wet years identified using the percentile method. By means of reconstruction, we identified two so far unknown extremely dry years in Romania--1725 and 1782. Those 2 years are almost as dry as 1946, which was known as the "year of great famine." Since no historical documents for these 2 years were available in local archives, we compared the results with those from neighbouring countries and discovered that both years were extremely dry in the wider region (Slovakia, Hungary, Anatolia, Syria, and Turkey). While the 1800-1900 period was relatively mild, with only two moderately extreme years as far as weather is concerned, the 1900-2009 period was highly salient owing to the very high number of wet and dry extremes--five extremely wet and three extremely dry events (one of them in 1946) were identified.

Seasonal climate variability in Medieval Europe (1000 to 1499)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pfister, C.

2009-04-01

In his fundamental work on medieval climate Alexandre (1987) highlighted the significance of dealing with contemporary sources. Recently, long series of temperature indices for "summer" and "winter" were set up by Shabalova and van Engelen (2003) for the Low Countries, but the time resolution is not strictly seasonal. This paper worked out within the EU 6th Framework Project "Millennium" draws on critically reviewed documentary evidence from a spatially extensive area of Western and Central Europe (basically England, France, BENELUX, Western Germany, Switzerland, Austria, Poland, Hungary and todays Czech Republic. The narrative evidence is complemented with dendro-climatic series from the Alps (Büntgen et al. 2006). Each "climate observation" is georeferenced which allows producing spatial displays of the data for selected spaces and time-frames. The spatial distribution of the information charts can be used as a tool for the climatological verification of the underlying data. Reconstructions for winter (DJF) and summer (JJA) are presented in the form of time series and charts. Cold winters were frequent from 1205 to 1235 i.e. in the "Medieval Warm Period" and in the Little Ice Age (1306-1330; 1390-1470). Dry and warm summers prevailed in Western and Central Europe in the first half of the 13th century. During the Little Ice Age cold-wet summers (triggered by volcanic explosions in the tropics) were more frequent, though summer climate remained highly variable. Results are discussed with regard to the "Greenhouse Debate" and the relationship to glacier fluctuations in the Alps is explored. References -Alexandre, Pierre, 1987: Le Climat en Europe au Moyen Age. Contribution à l'histoire des variations climatiques de 1000 à 1425. Paris. -Büntgen, Ulf et al. 2006: Summer Temperature Variation in the European Alps, AD. 755-2004, J. of Climate 19 5606-5623. - Pfister, Christian et al. 1998: Winter air temperature variations in Central Europe during the Early and Highe Middle Ages. The Holocene 8/1: 547-564. -Rohr, Christian, 2007: Extreme Naturereignisse im Ostalpenraum, Köln. -Shabalova, Marina ; van Engelen, Aryan, 2003: Evaluation of Reconstruction of Winter and Summer Temperatures in the Low Countries, AD 764-1998, Clim. Change 58 1-2, 219-242.

Characterizing the exceptional 2014 drought event in São Paulo by drought period length

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zou, Yong; Macau, Elbert E. N.; Sampaio, Gilvan; Ramos, Antônio M. T.; Kurths, Jürgen

2017-09-01

In the last decade, the southeast region of Brazil has been suffering severe water shortages. Here, we propose to compute the expected drought period length to characterize the drought events in the region of São Paulo. We report the unique properties of the exceptional drought event during the austral summer 2014 by showing the differences and similarities to the very dry season in 2001 and the mild dry seasons in 2006 and 2015. Furthermore, we investigate the correlations of the abnormal precipitation deficit with the ocean and atmospheric patterns. In comparison to other drought events, we validate the hypothetical mechanism that underlies the exceptional drought 2014: (1) The existence of an anomalous high pressure center in the area acts as a blocking mechanism that prevents moisture transport from the Amazon and passage of cold front systems from south Brazil. This blocking high has been observed in all dry seasons considered, with much larger magnitude in 2014. (2) The much faster increasing trend of the anomalous sea surface temperature acts as a strong feedback which intensified the extreme climate conditions. The unprecedented increasing trend of the SST in 2014 was not observed in other climate variables representing a high pressure center. Therefore, we conclude that the exceptional drought 2014 was enhanced by the feedback mechanism of anomalous warming of SST in the South Atlantic Oceans, which was resulted from the anomalous high pressure.

Changes in extreme temperature and precipitation events in the Loess Plateau (China) during 1960-2013 under global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Wenyi; Mu, Xingmin; Song, Xiaoyan; Wu, Dan; Cheng, Aifang; Qiu, Bing

2016-02-01

In recent decades, extreme climatic events have been a major issue worldwide. Regional assessments on various climates and geographic regions are needed for understanding uncertainties in extreme events' responses to global warming. The objective of this study was to assess the annual and decadal trends in 12 extreme temperature and 10 extreme precipitation indices in terms of intensity, frequency, and duration over the Loess Plateau during 1960-2013. The results indicated that the regionally averaged trends in temperature extremes were consistent with global warming. The occurrence of warm extremes, including summer days (SU), tropical nights (TR), warm days (TX90), and nights (TN90) and a warm spell duration indicator (WSDI), increased by 2.76 (P < 0.01), 1.24 (P < 0.01), 2.60 (P = 0.0003), 3.41 (P < 0.01), and 0.68 (P = 0.0041) days/decade during the period of 1960-2013, particularly, sharp increases in these indices occurred in 1985-2000. Over the same period, the occurrence of cold extremes, including frost days (FD), ice days (ID), cold days (TX10) and nights (TN10), and a cold spell duration indicator (CSDI) exhibited decreases of - 3.22 (P < 0.01), - 2.21 (P = 0.0028), - 2.71 (P = 0.0028), - 4.31 (P < 0.01), and - 0.69 (P = 0.0951) days/decade, respectively. Moreover, extreme warm events in most regions tended to increase while cold indices tended to decrease in the Loess Plateau, but the trend magnitudes of cold extremes were greater than those of warm extremes. The growing season (GSL) in the Loess Plateau was lengthened at a rate of 3.16 days/decade (P < 0.01). Diurnal temperature range (DTR) declined at a rate of - 0.06 °C /decade (P = 0.0931). Regarding the precipitation indices, the annual total precipitation (PRCPTOT) showed no obvious trends (P = 0.7828). The regionally averaged daily rainfall intensity (SDII) exhibited significant decreases (- 0.14 mm/day/decade, P = 0.0158), whereas consecutive dry days (CDD) significantly increased (1.96 days/decade, P = 0.0001) during 1960-2013. Most of stations with significant changes in SDII and CDD occurred in central and southeastern Loess Plateau. However, the changes in days of erosive rainfall, heavy rain, rainstorm, maximum 5-day precipitation, and very-wet-day and extremely wet-day precipitation were not significant. Large-scale atmospheric circulation indices, such as the Western Pacific Subtropical High Intensity Index (WPSHII) and Arctic Oscillation (AO), strongly influences warm/cold extremes and contributes significantly to climate changes in the Loess Plateau. The enhanced geopotential height over the Eurasian continent and increase in water vapor divergence in the rainy season have contributed to the changes of the rapid warming and consecutive drying in the Loess Plateau.

Changes in Concurrent Risk of Warm and Dry Years under Impact of Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sarhadi, A.; Wiper, M.; Touma, D. E.; Ausín, M. C.; Diffenbaugh, N. S.

2017-12-01

Anthropogenic global warming has changed the nature and the risk of extreme climate phenomena. The changing concurrence of multiple climatic extremes (warm and dry years) may result in intensification of undesirable consequences for water resources, human and ecosystem health, and environmental equity. The present study assesses how global warming influences the probability that warm and dry years co-occur in a global scale. In the first step of the study a designed multivariate Mann-Kendall trend analysis is used to detect the areas in which the concurrence of warm and dry years has increased in the historical climate records and also climate models in the global scale. The next step investigates the concurrent risk of the extremes under dynamic nonstationary conditions. A fully generalized multivariate risk framework is designed to evolve through time under dynamic nonstationary conditions. In this methodology, Bayesian, dynamic copulas are developed to model the time-varying dependence structure between the two different climate extremes (warm and dry years). The results reveal an increasing trend in the concurrence risk of warm and dry years, which are in agreement with the multivariate trend analysis from historical and climate models. In addition to providing a novel quantification of the changing probability of compound extreme events, the results of this study can help decision makers develop short- and long-term strategies to prepare for climate stresses now and in the future.

Impact of Extreme Heat Events on Emergency Department Visits in North Carolina (2007-2011).

PubMed

Fuhrmann, Christopher M; Sugg, Margaret M; Konrad, Charles E; Waller, Anna

2016-02-01

Extreme heat is the leading cause of weather-related mortality in the U.S. Extreme heat also affects human health through heat stress and can exacerbate underlying medical conditions that lead to increased morbidity and mortality. In this study, data on emergency department (ED) visits for heat-related illness (HRI) and other selected diseases were analyzed during three heat events across North Carolina from 2007 to 2011. These heat events were identified based on the issuance and verification of heat products from local National Weather Service forecast offices (i.e. Heat Advisory, Heat Watch, and Excessive Heat Warning). The observed number of ED visits during these events were compared to the expected number of ED visits during several control periods to determine excess morbidity resulting from extreme heat. All recorded diagnoses were analyzed for each ED visit, thereby providing insight into the specific pathophysiological mechanisms and underlying health conditions associated with exposure to extreme heat. The most common form of HRI was heat exhaustion, while the percentage of visits with heat stroke was relatively low (<10%). The elderly (>65 years of age) were at greatest risk for HRI during the early summer heat event (8.9 visits per 100,000), while young and middle age adults (18-44 years of age) were at greatest risk during the mid-summer event (6.3 visits per 100,000). Many of these visits were likely due to work-related exposure. The most vulnerable demographic during the late summer heat event was adolescents (15-17 years of age), which may relate to the timing of organized sports. This demographic also exhibited the highest visit rate for HRI among all three heat events (10.5 visits per 100,000). Significant increases (p < 0.05) in visits with cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases were noted during the three heat events (3-8%). The greatest increases were found in visits with hypotension during the late summer event (23%) and sequelae during the early summer event (30%), while decreases were noted for visits with hemorrhagic stroke during the middle and late summer events (13-24%) and for visits with aneurysm during the early summer event (15%). Significant increases were also noted in visits with respiratory diseases (5-7%). The greatest increases in this category were found in visits with pneumonia and influenza (16%), bronchitis and emphysema (12%), and COPD (14%) during the early summer event. Significant increases in visits with nervous system disorders were also found during the early summer event (16%), while increases in visits with diabetes were noted during the mid-summer event (10%).

Coherent variability between seasonal temperatures and rainfalls in the Iberian Peninsula, 1951-2016

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodrigo, F. S.

2018-02-01

In this work trends of seasonal mean of daily minimum (TN), maximum (TX), mean (TM) temperatures, daily range of temperature (DTR), and total seasonal rainfall (R) in 35 Iberian stations since mid-twentieth century are studied. The interest is focused on the relationships between temperature variables and rainfall, taking into account the correlation coefficients between R and the temperature variables. The negative link between rainfall and temperatures is detected in the four seasons of the year, except in western stations in winter for TN and TM, and in autumn for TN (for this variable a certain annual cycle is detected, with predominance of positive correlation in winter, negative in spring and summer, and the autumn as transition season). The role of cloud cover is confirmed in those stations with total cloud cover data. Using an average peninsular series, the relationship between nighttime temperature and rainfall related to long wave radiation is confirmed for the four seasons of the year, although in spring and summer has minor importance than in the cold half year. The relationships between R, TN, and TX are in general terms stable after a moving correlation analysis, although the negative correlation between TX and R seems be weakened in spring and autumn and reinforced in summer. The role of convective precipitation in autumn is discussed. The analysis of combined extreme indices in four representative stations shows an increase of warm and dry days, and a decrease of cold and wet days.

Synergy of a warm spring and dry summer

Treesearch

Yude Pan; David Schimel

2016-01-01

An analysis suggests that high carbon uptake by US land ecosystems during the warm spring of 2012 offset the carbon loss that resulted from severe drought over the summer — and hints that the warm spring could have worsened the drought.

Risk from drought and extreme heat in Russian wheat production and its relation to atmospheric blocking and teleconnection patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Giannakaki, Paraskevi; Calanca, Pierluigi

2017-04-01

Russia has become one of the leading wheat exporters worldwide. Major breakdowns in Russian wheat production induced by extreme weather events are therefore of high significance not only for the domestic but also for the global market. Wheat production in south-western Russia, the main growing area, suffers in particular from the adverse effects of drought and heat waves. For this reason knowledge of the occurrence of this type of extreme events and of the processes that lead to adverse conditions is of paramount importance for risk management. The negative impacts of heat waves and drought are particularly severe when anomalous conditions persist in time. As an example, a blocking event in summer 2010 resulted in one of the warmest and worst drought conditions in Russia's recent history. The latter caused a decline in Russian wheat production by more than 30%, which in turn prompted the Russian government to issue an export ban that lasted until summer 2011. In view of this, the question of course arises of how much of the negative variations in Russian wheat production levels can be explained by blocking events and other features of the large-scale atmospheric circulation. Specific questions are: how often are blocking events over Russia associated with extreme high temperatures and dry conditions? Which of the teleconnection patterns are correlated with drought and heat stress conditions in the area? Answering these questions can contribute to a develop strategies for agricultural risk management. In this contribution we present results of a study that aims at characterizing the occurrence of adverse weather conditions in south-western Russia in relation to atmospheric blocking and teleconnection patterns such as East Atlantic/Western Russia pattern, the Polar/Eurasia pattern, the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Scandinavia pattern. The analysis relies on weather data for 1980-2014 from 130 stations distributed across the wheat production area. The account for similarities in the occurrence of extreme heat, stations are clustered according to 90th percentile of daily maximum temperature. The results indicate that adverse conditions in the area are significantly correlated with the occurrence of blocking events and with the phase of some teleconnection patterns.

Associations between extreme precipitation and acute gastro-intestinal illness due to cryptosporidiosis and giardiasis in an urban Canadian drinking water system (1997-2009).

PubMed

Chhetri, Bimal K; Takaro, Tim K; Balshaw, Robert; Otterstatter, Michael; Mak, Sunny; Lem, Marcus; Zubel, Marc; Lysyshyn, Mark; Clarkson, Len; Edwards, Joanne; Fleury, Manon D; Henderson, Sarah B; Galanis, Eleni

2017-10-01

Drinking water related infections are expected to increase in the future due to climate change. Understanding the current links between these infections and environmental factors is vital to understand and reduce the future burden of illness. We investigated the relationship between weekly reported cryptosporidiosis and giardiasis (n = 7,422), extreme precipitation (>90th percentile), drinking water turbidity, and preceding dry periods in a drinking water system located in greater Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada (1997-2009) using distributed lag non-linear Poisson regression models adjusted for seasonality, secular trend, and the effect of holidays on reporting. We found a significant increase in cryptosporidiosis and giardiasis 4-6 weeks after extreme precipitation. The effect was greater following a dry period. Similarly, extreme precipitation led to significantly increased turbidity only after prolonged dry periods. Our results suggest that the risk of cryptosporidiosis and giardiasis increases with extreme precipitation, and that the effects are more pronounced after a prolonged dry period. Given that extreme precipitation events are expected to increase with climate change, it is important to further understand the risks from these events, develop planning tools, and build resilience to these future risks.

76 FR 31685 - Endangered and Threatened Wildlife and Plants; Revised Critical Habitat for the Riverside Fairy...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-06-01

... and hot, dry summers), where shallow depressions become seasonally wet or inundated following winter... dry for the remainder of the year. Throughout this proposed revised critical habitat rule, the term... ephemeral wetlands, the wet phase typically occurs between the months of October to May, and the dry phase...

Blue Water Trade-Offs With Vegetation in a CO2-Enriched Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mankin, Justin S.; Seager, Richard; Smerdon, Jason E.; Cook, Benjamin I.; Williams, A. Park; Horton, Radley M.

2018-04-01

Present and future freshwater availability and drought risks are physically tied to the responses of surface vegetation to increasing CO2. A single-model large ensemble identifies the occurrence of colocated warming- and CO2-induced leaf area index increases with summer soil moisture declines. This pattern of "greening" and "drying," which occurs over 42% of global vegetated land area, is largely attributable to changes in the partitioning of precipitation at the land surface away from runoff and toward terrestrial vegetation ecosystems. Changes in runoff and ecosystem partitioning are inversely related, with changes in runoff partitioning being governed by changes in precipitation (mean and extremes) and ecosystem partitioning being governed by ecosystem water use and surface resistance to evapotranspiration (ET). Projections show that warming-influenced and CO2-enriched terrestrial vegetation ecosystems use water that historically would have been partitioned to runoff over 48% of global vegetated land areas, largely in Western North America, the Amazon, and Europe, many of the same regions with colocated greening and drying. These results have implications for how water available for people will change in response to anthropogenic warming and raise important questions about model representations of vegetation water responses to high CO2.

Impact of the 2012 extreme drought conditions on private well owners in the United States, a qualitative analysis.

PubMed

Murti, Michelle; Yard, Ellen; Kramer, Rachel; Haselow, Dirk; Mettler, Mike; McElvany, Rocky; Martin, Colleen

2016-05-24

Extreme hot and dry weather during summer 2012 resulted in some of the most devastating drought conditions in the last half-century in the United States (U.S.). While public drinking water systems have contingency plans and access to alternative resources to maintain supply for their customers during drought, little is known about the impacts of drought on private well owners, who are responsible for maintaining their own water supply. The purpose of this investigation was to explore the public health impacts of the 2012 drought on private well owners' water quality and quantity, identify their needs for planning and preparing for drought, and to explore their knowledge, attitudes, and well maintenance behaviors during drought. In the spring of 2013, we conducted six focus group discussions with private well owners in Arkansas, Indiana, and Oklahoma. There were a total of 41 participants, two-thirds of whom were men aged 55 years or older. While participants agreed that 2012 was the worst drought in memory, few experienced direct impacts on their water quantity or quality. However, all groups had heard of areas or individuals whose wells had run dry. Participants conserved water by reducing their indoor and outdoor consumption, but they had few suggestions on additional ways to conserve, and they raised concerns about limiting water use too much. Participants wanted information on how to test their well and any water quality issues in their area. This investigation identified information needs regarding drought preparedness and well management for well owners.

Diagnosing the Nature of Land-Atmosphere Coupling During the 2006-7 Dry/Wet Extremes in the U.S. Southern Great Plains

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Santanello, Joseph A., Jr.; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.; Kumar, Sujay V.; Dong, Xiquan; Kennedy, Aaron D.

2011-01-01

Land-atmosphere interactions play a critical role in determining the. diurnal evolution of both planetary boundary layer (PBL) and land surface temperature and moisture states. The degree of coupling between the land surface and PBL in numerical weather prediction and climate models remains largely unexplored and undiagnosed due to the complex interactions and feedbacks present across a range of scales. Further, uncoupled systems or experiments (e.g., the Project for Intercomparison of Land Parameterization Schemes, PILPS) may lead to inaccurate water and energy cycle process understanding by neglecting feedback processes such as PBL-top entrainment. In this study, a framework for diagnosing local land-atmosphere coupling (LoCo) is presented using a coupled mesoscale model with a suite of PBL and land surface model (LSM) options along with observations during the summers of 200617 in the U.S. Southern Great Plains. Specifically, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model has been coupled to NASA's Land Information System (LIS), which provides a flexible and high-resolution representation and initialization of land surface physics and states. A range of diagnostics exploring the links and feedbacks between soil moisture and precipitation are examined for the dry/wet extremes of this region, along with the sensitivity of PBL-LSM coupling to perturbations in soil moisture. As such, this methodology provides a potential pathway to study factors controlling local land-atmosphere coupling (LoCo) using the LIS-WRF system, which is serving as a testbed for LoCo experiments to evaluate coupling diagnostics within the community.

Scale dependency of regional climate modeling of current and future climate extremes in Germany

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tölle, Merja H.; Schefczyk, Lukas; Gutjahr, Oliver

2017-11-01

A warmer climate is projected for mid-Europe, with less precipitation in summer, but with intensified extremes of precipitation and near-surface temperature. However, the extent and magnitude of such changes are associated with creditable uncertainty because of the limitations of model resolution and parameterizations. Here, we present the results of convection-permitting regional climate model simulations for Germany integrated with the COSMO-CLM using a horizontal grid spacing of 1.3 km, and additional 4.5- and 7-km simulations with convection parameterized. Of particular interest is how the temperature and precipitation fields and their extremes depend on the horizontal resolution for current and future climate conditions. The spatial variability of precipitation increases with resolution because of more realistic orography and physical parameterizations, but values are overestimated in summer and over mountain ridges in all simulations compared to observations. The spatial variability of temperature is improved at a resolution of 1.3 km, but the results are cold-biased, especially in summer. The increase in resolution from 7/4.5 km to 1.3 km is accompanied by less future warming in summer by 1 ∘C. Modeled future precipitation extremes will be more severe, and temperature extremes will not exclusively increase with higher resolution. Although the differences between the resolutions considered (7/4.5 km and 1.3 km) are small, we find that the differences in the changes in extremes are large. High-resolution simulations require further studies, with effective parameterizations and tunings for different topographic regions. Impact models and assessment studies may benefit from such high-resolution model results, but should account for the impact of model resolution on model processes and climate change.

Acid rock drainage and climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nordstrom, D. Kirk

2009-01-01

Rainfall events cause both increases and decreases in acid and metals concentrations and their loadings from mine wastes, and unmined mineralized areas, into receiving streams based on data from 3 mines sites in the United States and other sites outside the US. Gradual increases in concentrations occur during long dry spells and sudden large increases are observed during the rising limb of the discharge following dry spells (first flush). By the time the discharge peak has occurred, concentrations are usually decreased, often to levels below those of pre-storm conditions and then they slowly rise again during the next dry spell. These dynamic changes in concentrations and loadings are related to the dissolution of soluble salts and the flushing out of waters that were concentrated by evaporation. The underlying processes, pyrite oxidation and host rock dissolution, do not end until the pyrite is fully weathered, which can take hundreds to thousands of years. These observations can be generalized to predict future conditions caused by droughts related to El Ni??o and climate change associated with global warming. Already, the time period for dry summers is lengthening in the western US and rainstorms are further apart and more intense when they happen. Consequently, flushing of inactive or active mine sites and mineralized but unmined sites will cause larger sudden increases in concentrations that will be an ever increasing danger to aquatic life with climate change. Higher average concentrations will be observed during longer low-flow periods. Remediation efforts will have to increase the capacity of engineered designs to deal with more extreme conditions, not average conditions of previous years.

Past and future hydro-climatic change and the 2015 drought in the interior of western Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

DeBeer, C. M.; Wheater, H. S.; Pomeroy, J. W.; Stewart, R. E.; Szeto, K.; Brimelow, J.; Chun, K. P.; Masud, M. B.; Bonsal, B. R.

2015-12-01

The interior of western Canada has experienced rapid and severe hydro-climatic change in recent decades. This is projected to continue in future. Since 1950, mean annual air temperature has increased by 2 °C (4 °C increase in winter daily means) with associated changes in cryospheric regime. Changes in precipitation have varied regionally; in the Prairies there has been a decrease in winter precipitation, shift from snowfall to rainfall, and increased clustering of summer rainfall events into multiple day storms. Regionally, river discharge indicates an earlier spring freshet and increased incidence of rain-on-snow peak flow events, but otherwise mixed responses due to multiple process interactions. In winter/spring 2015, persistent anomalous ridging conditions developed over western North America causing widespread drought. This produced abnormally warm and dry conditions over the Rocky Mountain headwaters of the Mackenzie and Saskatchewan Rivers, resulting in low spring snowpacks that melted earlier than normal and were followed by an atypical lack of spring rainfall. By summer 2015, most of western Canada was subject to extreme drought conditions leading to record dry soil moisture conditions in parts of the Prairies during a key crop growth time, streamflows that were greatly diminished, and extensive wildfires across the Boreal Forest. The importance of the warmer winter to this drought and the contextual trend for increasing winter warmth provide new insight into the impact of climate warming on droughts in cold regions. This talk will discuss efforts by the Changing Cold Regions Network (CCRN; www.ccrnetwork.ca) to understand and diagnose the 2015 drought, its potential linkages with the concurrent California drought and other continental events, and its relevance in the context of historical and predicted future climate change.

Global Precipitation Patterns Associated with ENSO and Tropical Circulations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Curtis, Scott; Adler, Robert; Huffman, George; Bolvin, David; Nelkin, Eric

1999-01-01

Tropical precipitation and the accompanying latent heat release is the engine that drives the global circulation. An increase or decrease in rainfall in the tropics not only leads to the local effects of flooding or drought, but contributes to changes in the large scale circulation and global climate system. Rainfall in the tropics is highly variable, both seasonally (monsoons) and interannually (ENSO). Two experimental observational data sets, developed under the auspices of the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP), are used in this study to examine the relationships between global precipitation and ENSO and extreme monsoon events over the past 20 years. The V2x79 monthly product is a globally complete, 2.5 deg x 2.5 deg, satellite-gauge merged data set that covers the period 1979 to the present. Indices based on patterns of satellite-derived rainfall anomalies in the Pacific are used to analyze the teleconnections between ENSO and global precipitation, with emphasis on the monsoon systems. It has been well documented that dry (wet) Asian monsoons accompany warm (cold) ENSO events. However, during the summer seasons of the 1997/98 ENSO the precipitation anomalies were mostly positive over India and the Bay of Bengal, which may be related to an epoch-scale variability in the Asian monsoon circulation. The North American monsoon may be less well linked to ENSO, but a positive precipitation anomaly was observed over Mexico around the September following the 1997/98 event. For the twenty-year record, precipitation and SST patterns in the tropics are analyzed during wet and dry monsoons. For the Asian summer monsoon, positive rainfall anomalies accompany two distinct patterns of tropical precipitation and a warm Indian Ocean. Negative anomalies coincide with a wet Maritime Continent.

Seasonal changes of buffalo colostrum: physicochemical parameters, fatty acids and cholesterol variation.

PubMed

Coroian, Aurelia; Erler, Silvio; Matea, Cristian T; Mireșan, Vioara; Răducu, Camelia; Bele, Constantin; Coroian, Cristian O

2013-02-26

Colostrum has many beneficial effects on newborns due to its main compounds (proteins, fats, lactose, essential fatty acids, amino acids) as well as protective antibodies that confer to the body. The buffaloes are the second important species for milk production in the world after cows. The importance of the species is also conferred by a longer longevity, high dry content of milk and a strong organic resistance when compared with cows. The purpose of this study was to investigate the changes of buffalo colostrum compounds such as fatty acids, cholesterol and physicochemical parameters during the first seven days postpartum and under the impact of the season, summer on pasture and winter on dry diet (hay based). Fat from colostrum differs depending on the postpartum day showing mean values of 11.31-7.56% (summer season) and 11.22-7.51% (winter season). These values gradually decreased starting with first day postpartum until day seven. Dry substance and protein presented a similar evolution to fat reaching the lowest values at the end of the colostral period. Lactose, ash and pH showed a gradually increase reaching the maximum on day seven postpartum. The highest titres of fatty acids from colostrum are: butyric acid (C4:0), myristic acid (C14:0), palmitic acid (C16:0), oleic acid (C18:1) and the lowest values showed up in myristoleic acid (C14:1), cis-10-pentadecanoic acid (C15:1), pentadecylic acid (C15:0) and margaric acid (C17:0) for both seasons. Higher concentrations have been recorded for the summer season in general. Cholesterol concentration decreased from 12.93 and 12.68 mg/100 mL (summer and winter season) to 9.02 and 7.88 mg/100 mL in the end of the colostral period. Physicochemical compounds of buffalo colostrum were influenced by season and postpartum day of milking. Excepting lactose all other parameters gradually decreased during colostral period. Fatty acids and cholesterol showed the same evolution, presenting higher values for the summer season. Specific feeding in the summer season (on pasture) did lead in more concentrated colostrum in dry substance, fatty acids and cholesterol.

Variation in the Asian monsoon intensity and dry-wet condition since the Little Ice Age in central China revealed by an aragonite stalagmite

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yin, J.-J.; Yuan, D.-X.; Li, H.-C.; Cheng, H.; Li, T.-Y.; Edwards, R. L.; Lin, Y.-S.; Qin, J.-M.; Tang, W.; Zhao, Z.-Y.; Mii, H.-S.

2014-04-01

Highlight: this paper focuses on the climate variability in central China since 1300 AD, involving: 1. A well-dated, 1.5 year resolution stalagmite δ18O record from Lianhua Cave, central China; 2. Links of the δ18O record with regional dry-wet condition, monsoon intensity, and temperature over eastern China; 3. Correlations among drought events in the Lianhua record, solar irradiation, and ENSO index. We present a highly precisely 230Th/U dated, 1.5 year resolution δ18O record of an aragonite stalagmite (LHD1) collected from Lianhua Cave in Wuling mountain area of central China. The comparison of the δ18O record with the local instrumental record and historical documents exhibits at least 15 drought events in the Wuling mountain and adjacent areas during the Little Ice Age, in which some of them were corresponding to megadrought events in the broad Asian monsoonal region of China. Thus, the stalagmite δ18O record reveals variations in the summer monsoon precipitation and dry-wet condition in Wuling mountain area. The eastern China temperature varied with the solar activity, showing higher temperature under stronger solar irradiation which produces stronger summer monsoon. During Maunder, Dalton and 1900 sunspot minima, more severe drought events occurred, indicating weakening of the summer monsoon when solar activity decreased on decadal time scales. On interannual time scale, dry conditions in the studying area were prevailing under El Niño condition, which is also supported by the spectrum analysis. Hence, our record illustrates the linkage of Asian summer monsoon precipitation to solar irradiation and ENSO: wetter condition under stronger summer monsoon during warm periods and vice versa; During cold periods, the Walker circulation will shift toward central Pacific under El Niño condition, resulting further weakening of Asian summer monsoon. However, the δ18O of LHD1 record is positively correlated with temperature after ~1940 AD which is opposite to the δ18O - temperature relationship in earlier time. This anomaly relationship might be caused by the greenhouse-gas forcing.

Seasonal changes of buffalo colostrum: physicochemical parameters, fatty acids and cholesterol variation

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Colostrum has many beneficial effects on newborns due to its main compounds (proteins, fats, lactose, essential fatty acids, amino acids) as well as protective antibodies that confer to the body. The buffaloes are the second important species for milk production in the world after cows. The importance of the species is also conferred by a longer longevity, high dry content of milk and a strong organic resistance when compared with cows. The purpose of this study was to investigate the changes of buffalo colostrum compounds such as fatty acids, cholesterol and physicochemical parameters during the first seven days postpartum and under the impact of the season, summer on pasture and winter on dry diet (hay based). Results Fat from colostrum differs depending on the postpartum day showing mean values of 11.31-7.56% (summer season) and 11.22-7.51% (winter season). These values gradually decreased starting with first day postpartum until day seven. Dry substance and protein presented a similar evolution to fat reaching the lowest values at the end of the colostral period. Lactose, ash and pH showed a gradually increase reaching the maximum on day seven postpartum. The highest titres of fatty acids from colostrum are: butyric acid (C4:0), myristic acid (C14:0), palmitic acid (C16:0), oleic acid (C18:1) and the lowest values showed up in myristoleic acid (C14:1), cis-10-pentadecanoic acid (C15:1), pentadecylic acid (C15:0) and margaric acid (C17:0) for both seasons. Higher concentrations have been recorded for the summer season in general. Cholesterol concentration decreased from 12.93 and 12.68 mg/100 mL (summer and winter season) to 9.02 and 7.88 mg/100 mL in the end of the colostral period. Conclusions Physicochemical compounds of buffalo colostrum were influenced by season and postpartum day of milking. Excepting lactose all other parameters gradually decreased during colostral period. Fatty acids and cholesterol showed the same evolution, presenting higher values for the summer season. Specific feeding in the summer season (on pasture) did lead in more concentrated colostrum in dry substance, fatty acids and cholesterol. PMID:23442377

Classification and plausibility assessment of historical and future weather and climate anomalies (application for the Wupper River Basin, Germany)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scheibel, Marc; Lorza, Paula

2017-04-01

In the frame of the Horizon 2020 project BINGO (Bringing INnovation to onGOing water management), the effects of climate change scenarios on the water cycle in the Wupper River Basin are being currently investigated. The Wupper catchment area is prone to flash floods in summer, winter floods as well as dry periods. The occurrence of these events has increased in the last decades together with the shifting of the rainy season. BINGO approach focuses on, among others: a) identifying past weather extremes and anomalies due to climate change; and b) gaining deeper knowledge on the effects of soil moisture on water balance and runoff generation processes for reservoir management and enhancement of Wupper Association's flood early warning system. Historical hydro-meteorological extreme events are assessed based on daily records of long-term precipitation time series (ca. 80 years) as well as precipitation time series from downscaled reanalysis products (i.e., ERA-Interim). The determination of representative indices, e.g., Weather Extremity Index (WEI) or the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) serves to compensate for uncertainties in spatial and temporal recording of the parameters of individual processes. The WEI establishes the highest rainfall amount per station and its rarity, the extent of the affected area, and the event duration. For the evaluation of historical climate signals in the reference period and for the assessment of future scenarios, deviation of the mean monthly observed precipitation from the long-term mean value is determined as a first approach for several stations along the catchment area for individual months and different time scales. As a second approach, different indices such as SPI and SPEI (Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index) are calculated for different time scales in order to determine whether they were anomalously dry or wet. SPEI is more suitable for climate change analysis than SPI since the former considers not only precipitation but also temperature.

Endless cold: a seasonal reconstruction of temperature and precipitation in the Burgundian Low Countries during the 15th century based on documentary evidence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Camenisch, C.

2015-08-01

This paper applies the methods of historical climatology to present a climate reconstruction for the area of the Burgundian Low Countries during the 15th century. The results are based on documentary evidence that has been handled very carefully, especially with regard to the distinction between contemporary and non-contemporary sources. Approximately 3000 written records derived from about 100 different sources were examined and converted into seasonal seven-degree indices for temperature and precipitation. For the Late Middle Ages only a few climate reconstructions exist. There are even fewer reconstructions which include spring and autumn temperature or any precipitation information at all. This paper therefore constitutes a useful contribution to the understanding of climate and weather conditions in the less well researched but highly interesting 15th century. The extremely cold winter temperatures during the 1430s and an extremely cold winter in 1407/1408 are striking. Moreover, no other year in this century was as hot and dry as 1473. At the beginning and the end of the 1480s and at the beginning of the 1490s summers were considerably wetter than average.

Extreme Monsoon Rainfall Signatures Preserved in the Invasive Terrestrial Gastropod Lissachatina fulica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghosh, Prosenjit; Rangarajan, Ravi; Thirumalai, Kaustubh; Naggs, Fred

2017-11-01

Indian summer monsoon (ISM) rainfall lasts for a period of 4 months with large variations recorded in terms of rainfall intensity during its period between June and September. Proxy reconstructions of past ISM rainfall variability are required due to the paucity of long instrumental records. However, reconstructing subseasonal rainfall is extremely difficult using conventional hydroclimate proxies due to inadequate sample resolution. Here, we demonstrate the utility of the stable oxygen isotope composition of gastropod shells in reconstructing past rainfall on subseasonal timescales. We present a comparative isotopic study on present day rainwater and stable isotope ratios of precipitate found in the incremental growth bands of giant African land snail Lissachatina fulica (Bowdich) from modern day (2009) and in the historical past (1918). Isotopic signatures present in the growth bands allowed for the identification of ISM rainfall variability in terms of its active and dry spells in the modern as well as past gastropod record. Our results demonstrate the utility of gastropod growth band stable isotope ratios in semiquantitative reconstructions of seasonal rainfall patterns. High resolution climate records extracted from gastropod growth band stable isotopes (museum and archived specimens) can expand the scope for understanding past subseasonal-to-seasonal climate variability.

Wetlands of the Prairie Pothole Region: Invertebrate species composition, ecology, and management

USGS Publications Warehouse

Euliss, N.H.; Wrubleski, D.A.; Mushet, D.M.; Batzer, D.P.; Rader, R.B.; Wissinger, S.A.

1999-01-01

The Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) of the United States and Canada is a unique area where shallow depressions created by the scouring action of Pleistocene glaciation interact with mid-continental climate variations to create and maintain a variety of wetland classes. These wetlands possess unique environmental and biotic characteristics that add to the overall regional diversity and production of aquatic invertebrates and the vertebrate wildlife that depend upon them as food. Climatic extremes in the PPR have a profound and dynamic influence on wetland hydrology, hydroperiod, chemistry, and ultimately the biota. Available knowledge of aquatic invertebrates in the PPR suggests that diversity of invertebrates within each wetland class is low. Harsh environmental conditions range from frigid winter temperatures that freeze wetlands and their sediments to hot summer temperatures and drought conditions that create steep salinity gradients and seasonally dry habitats. Consequently, the invertebrate community is composed mostly of ecological generalists that possess the necessary adaptations to tolerate environmental extremes. In this review, we describe the highly dynamic nature of prairie pothole wetlands and suggest that invertebrate studies be evaluated within a conceptual framework that considers important hydrologic, chemical, and climatic events.

Factors favorable to frequent extreme precipitation in the upper Yangtze River Valley

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tian, Baoqiang; Fan, Ke

2013-08-01

Extreme precipitation events in the upper Yangtze River Valley (YRV) have recently become an increasingly important focus in China because they often cause droughts and floods. Unfortunately, little is known about the climate processes responsible for these events. This paper investigates factors favorable to frequent extreme precipitation events in the upper YRV. Our results reveal that a weakened South China Sea summer monsoon trough, intensified Eurasian-Pacific blocking highs, an intensified South Asian High, a southward subtropical westerly jet and an intensified Western North Pacific Subtropical High (WNPSH) increase atmospheric instability and enhance the convergence of moisture over the upper YRV, which result in more extreme precipitation events. The snow depth over the eastern Tibetan Plateau (TP) in winter and sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) over three key regions in summer are important external forcing factors in the atmospheric circulation anomalies. Deep snow on the Tibetan Plateau in winter can weaken the subsequent East Asian summer monsoon circulation above by increasing the soil moisture content in summer and weakening the land-sea thermal contrast over East Asia. The positive SSTA in the western North Pacific may affect southwestward extension of the WNPSH and the blocking high over northeastern Asia by arousing the East Asian-Pacific pattern. The positive SSTA in the North Atlantic can affect extreme precipitation event frequency in the upper YRV via a wave train pattern along the westerly jet between the North Atlantic and East Asia. A tripolar pattern from west to east over the Indian Ocean can strengthen moisture transport by enhancing Somali cross-equatorial flow.

Use of dynamical downscaling to improve the simulation of Central U.S. warm season precipitation in CMIP5 models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harding, Keith J.; Snyder, Peter K.; Liess, Stefan

2013-11-01

supporting exceptionally productive agricultural lands, the Central U.S. is susceptible to severe droughts and floods. Such precipitation extremes are expected to worsen with climate change. However, future projections are highly uncertain as global climate models (GCMs) generally fail to resolve precipitation extremes. In this study, we assess how well models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulate summer means, variability, extremes, and the diurnal cycle of Central U.S. summer rainfall. Output from a subset of historical CMIP5 simulations are used to drive the Weather Research and Forecasting model to determine whether dynamical downscaling improves the representation of Central U.S. rainfall. We investigate which boundary conditions influence dynamically downscaled precipitation estimates and identify GCMs that can reasonably simulate precipitation when downscaled. The CMIP5 models simulate the seasonal mean and variability of summer rainfall reasonably well but fail to resolve extremes, the diurnal cycle, and the dynamic forcing of precipitation. Downscaling to 30 km improves these characteristics of precipitation, with the greatest improvement in the representation of extremes. Additionally, sizeable diurnal cycle improvements occur with higher (10 km) resolution and convective parameterization disabled, as the daily rainfall peak shifts 4 h closer to observations than 30 km resolution simulations. This lends greater confidence that the mechanisms responsible for producing rainfall are better simulated. Because dynamical downscaling can more accurately simulate these aspects of Central U.S. summer rainfall, policymakers can have added confidence in dynamically downscaled rainfall projections, allowing for more targeted adaptation and mitigation.

Long-term reactions of plants and macroinvertebrates to extreme floods in floodplain grasslands.

PubMed

Ilg, Christiane; Dziock, Frank; Foeckler, Francis; Follner, Klaus; Gerisch, Michael; Glaeser, Judith; Rink, Anke; Schanowski, Arno; Scholz, Mathias; Deichner, Oskar; Henle, Klaus

2008-09-01

Extreme summertime flood events are expected to become more frequent in European rivers due to climate change. In temperate areas, where winter floods are common, extreme floods occurring in summer, a period of high physiological activity, may seriously impact floodplain ecosystems. Here we report on the effects of the 2002 extreme summer flood on flora and fauna of the riverine grasslands of the Middle Elbe (Germany), comparing pre- and post-flooding data collected by identical methods. Plants, mollusks, and carabid beetles differed considerably in their response in terms of abundance and diversity. Plants and mollusks, displaying morphological and behavioral adaptations to flooding, showed higher survival rates than the carabid beetles, the adaptation strategies of which were mainly linked to life history. Our results illustrate the complexity of responses of floodplain organisms to extreme flood events. They demonstrate that the efficiency of resistance and resilience strategies is widely dependent on the mode of adaptation.

Atmospheric deposition of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in Shanghai: the spatio-temporal variation and source identification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheng, Chen; Bi, Chunjuan; Wang, Dongqi; Yu, Zhongjie; Chen, Zhenlou

2018-03-01

This study investigated the dry and wet deposition fluxes of atmospheric polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in Shanghai, China. The flux sources were traced based on composition and spatio-temporal variation. The results show that wet deposition concentrations of PAHs ranged from 0.07 to 0.67 mg·L-1 and were correlated with temperature ( P<0.05). Dry deposition of PAHs concentrations ranged from 3.60-92.15 mg·L-1 and were higher in winter and spring than in summer and autumn. The annual PAH average fluxes were 0.631 mg·m-2·d-1 and 4.06 mg·m-2·d-1 for wet and dry deposition, respectively. The highest wet deposition of PAH fluxes was observed in summer, while dry deposition fluxes were higher in winter and spring. Atmospheric PAHs were deposited as dry deposition in spring and winter, yet wet deposition was the dominant pathway during summer. Total atmospheric PAH fluxes were higher in the northern areas than in the southern areas of Shanghai, and were also observed to be higher in winter and spring. Annual deposition of atmospheric PAHs was about 10.8 t in across all of Shanghai. Wet deposition of PAHs was primarily composed of two, three, or four rings, while dry deposition of PAHs was composed of four, five, or six rings. The atmospheric PAHs, composed of four, five, or six rings, primarily existed in the form of particulates. Coal combustion and vehicle emissions were the dominant sources of PAH in the observed area of downtown Shanghai. In suburban areas, industrial pollution, from sources such as coke oven, incinerator, and oil fired power plant, was as significant as vehicle emissions in contributing to the deposition of PAHs.

Life at extreme elevations on Atacama volcanoes: the closest thing to Mars on Earth?

PubMed

Schmidt, S K; Gendron, E M S; Vincent, K; Solon, A J; Sommers, P; Schubert, Z R; Vimercati, L; Porazinska, D L; Darcy, J L; Sowell, P

2018-03-20

Here we describe recent breakthroughs in our understanding of microbial life in dry volcanic tephra ("soil") that covers much of the surface area of the highest elevation volcanoes on Earth. Dry tephra above 6000 m.a.s.l. is perhaps the best Earth analog for the surface of Mars because these "soils" are acidic, extremely oligotrophic, exposed to a thin atmosphere, high UV fluxes, and extreme temperature fluctuations across the freezing point. The simple microbial communities found in these extreme sites have among the lowest alpha diversity of any known earthly ecosystem and contain bacteria and eukaryotes that are uniquely adapted to these extreme conditions. The most abundant eukaryotic organism across the highest elevation sites is a Naganishia species that is metabolically versatile, can withstand high levels of UV radiation and can grow at sub-zero temperatures, and during extreme diurnal freeze-thaw cycles (e.g. - 10 to + 30 °C). The most abundant bacterial phylotype at the highest dry sites sampled (6330 m.a.s.l. on Volcán Llullaillaco) belongs to the enigmatic B12-WMSP1 clade which is related to the Ktedonobacter/Thermosporothrix clade that includes versatile organisms with the largest known bacterial genomes. Close relatives of B12-WMSP1 are also found in fumarolic soils on Volcán Socompa and in oligotrophic, fumarolic caves on Mt. Erebus in Antarctica. In contrast to the extremely low diversity of dry tephra, fumaroles found at over 6000 m.a.s.l. on Volcán Socompa support very diverse microbial communities with alpha diversity levels rivalling those of low elevation temperate soils. Overall, the high-elevation biome of the Atacama region provides perhaps the best "natural experiment" in which to study microbial life in both its most extreme setting (dry tephra) and in one of its least extreme settings (fumarolic soils).

Vulnerability and resilience of the carbon exchange of a subarctic peatland to an extreme winter event

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parmentier, Frans-Jan W.; Rasse, Daniel P.; Lund, Magnus; Bjerke, Jarle W.; Drake, Bert G.; Weldon, Simon; Tømmervik, Hans; Hansen, Georg H.

2018-06-01

Extreme winter events that damage vegetation are considered an important climatic cause of arctic browning—a reversal of the greening trend of the region—and possibly reduce the carbon uptake of northern ecosystems. Confirmation of a reduction in CO2 uptake due to winter damage, however, remains elusive due to a lack of flux measurements from affected ecosystems. In this study, we report eddy covariance fluxes of CO2 from a peatland in northern Norway and show that vegetation CO2 uptake was delayed and reduced in the summer of 2014 following an extreme winter event earlier that year. Strong frost in the absence of a protective snow cover—its combined intensity unprecedented in the local climate record—caused severe dieback of the dwarf shrub species Calluna vulgaris and Empetrum nigrum. Similar vegetation damage was reported at the time along ~1000 km of coastal Norway, showing the widespread impact of this event. Our results indicate that gross primary production (GPP) exhibited a delayed response to temperature following snowmelt. From snowmelt up to the peak of summer, this reduced carbon uptake by 14 (0–24) g C m‑2 (~12% of GPP in that period)—similar to the effect of interannual variations in summer weather. Concurrently, remotely-sensed NDVI dropped to the lowest level in more than a decade. However, bulk photosynthesis was eventually stimulated by the warm and sunny summer, raising total GPP. Species other than the vulnerable shrubs were probably resilient to the extreme winter event. The warm summer also increased ecosystem respiration, which limited net carbon uptake. This study shows that damage from a single extreme winter event can have an ecosystem-wide impact on CO2 uptake, and highlights the importance of including winter-induced shrub damage in terrestrial ecosystem models to accurately predict trends in vegetation productivity and carbon sequestration in the Arctic and sub-Arctic.

European temperature responses to blocking and ridge regional patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sousa, Pedro M.; Trigo, Ricardo M.; Barriopedro, David; Soares, Pedro M. M.; Santos, João A.

2018-01-01

Blocking occurrence and its impacts on European temperature have been studied in the last decade. However, most previous studies on blocking impacts have focused on winter only, disregarding its fingerprint in summer and differences with other synoptic patterns that also trigger temperature extremes. In this work, we provide a clear distinction between high-latitude blocking and sub-tropical ridges occurring in three sectors of the Euro-Atlantic region, describing their climatology and consequent impacts on European temperature during both winter and summer. Winter blocks (ridges) are generally associated to colder (warmer) than average conditions over large regions of Europe, in some areas with anomalies larger than 5 °C, particularly for the patterns occurring in the Atlantic and Central European sectors. During summer, there is a more regional response characterized by above average temperature for both blocking and ridge patterns, especially those occurring in continental areas, although negative temperature anomalies persist in southernmost areas during blocking. An objective analysis of the different forcing mechanisms associated to each considered weather regime has been performed, quantifying the importance of the following processes in causing the temperature anomalies: horizontal advection, vertical advection and diabatic heating. While during winter advection processes tend to be more relevant to explain temperature responses, in summer radiative heating under enhanced insolation plays a crucial role for both blocking and ridges. Finally, the changes in the distributions of seasonal temperature and in the frequencies of extreme temperature indices were also examined for specific areas of Europe. Winter blocking and ridge patterns are key drivers in the occurrence of regional cold and warm extreme temperatures, respectively. In summer, they are associated with substantial changes in the frequency of extremely warm days, but with different signatures in southern Europe. We conclude that there has been some misusage of the traditional blocking definition in the attribution of extreme events.

Responses of Soil CO2 Emissions to Extreme Precipitation Regimes: a Simulation on Loess Soil in Semi-arid Regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, R.; Zhao, M.; Hu, Y.; Guo, S.

2016-12-01

Responses of soil CO2 emission to natural precipitation play an essential role in regulating regional C cycling. With more erratic precipitation regimes, mostly likely of more frequent heavy rainstorms, projected into the future, extreme precipitation would potentially affect local soil moisture, plant growth, microbial communities, and further soil CO2 emissions. However, responses of soil CO2 emissions to extreme precipitation have not yet been systematically investigated. Such performances could be of particular importance for rainfed arable soil in semi-arid regions where soil microbial respiration stress is highly sensitive to temporal distribution of natural precipitation.In this study, a simulated experiment was conducted on bare loess soil from the semi-arid Chinese Loess Plateau. Three precipitation regimes with total precipitation amounts of 150 mm, 300 mm and 600 mm were carried out to simulate the extremely dry, business as usual, and extremely wet summer. The three regimes were individually materialized by wetting soils in a series of sub-events (10 mm or 150 mm). Co2 emissions from surface soil were continuously measured in-situ for one month. The results show that: 1) Evident CO2 emission pulses were observed immediately after applying sub-events, and cumulative CO2 emissions from events of total amount of 600 mm were greater than that from 150 mm. 3) In particular, for the same total amount of 600 mm, wetting regimes by applying four times of 150 mm sub-events resulted in 20% less CO2 emissions than by applying 60 times of 10 mm sub-events. This is mostly because its harsh 150 mm storms introduced more over-wet soil microbial respiration stress days (moisture > 28%). As opposed, for the same total amount of 150 mm, CO2 emissions from wetting regimes by applying 15 times of 10 mm sub-events were 22% lower than by wetting at once with 150 mm water, probably because its deficiency of soil moisture resulted in more over-dry soil microbial respiration stress days (moisture < 15%). Overall, soil CO2 emissions not only responded to total precipitation amount, but was also sensitive to precipitation regimes. Such differentiated responses of CO2 emissions highlight the necessity to properly account for relative contributions from CO2 emissions when projecting global carbon cycling into future climate scenarios.

Impacts of Future Climate and Emission Changes on U.S. Air Quality

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Penrod, Ashley; Zhang, Yang; Wang, K.

2014-06-01

Changes in climate and emissions will affect future air quality. In this work, simulations of present (2001-2005) and future (2026-2030) regional air quality are conducted with the newly released CMAQ version 5.0 to examine the individual and combined impacts of simulated future climate and anthropogenic emission projections on air quality over the U.S. Current (2001-2005) meteorological and chemical predictions are evaluated against observational data to assess the model’s capability in reproducing the seasonal differences. Overall, WRF and CMAQ perform reasonably well. Increased temperatures (up to 3.18 °C) and decreased ventilation (up to 157 m in planetary boundary layer height) aremore » found in both future winter and summer, with more prominent changes in winter. Increases in future temperatures result in increased isoprene and terpene emissions in winter and summer, driving the increase in maximum 8-h average O3 (up to 5.0 ppb) over the eastern U.S. in winter while decreases in NOx emissions drive the decrease in O3 over most of the U.S. in summer. Future concentrations of PM2.5 in winter and summer and many of its components including organic matter in winter, ammonium and nitrate in summer, and sulfate in winter and summer, decrease due to decreases in primary anthropogenic emissions and the concentrations of secondary anthropogenic pollutants and increased precipitation in winter. Future winter and summer dry and wet deposition fluxes are spatially variable and increase with increasing surface resistance and precipitation (e.g., NH4+ and NO3- dry and wet deposition fluxes increase in winter over much of the U.S.), respectively, and decrease with a decrease in ambient particulate concentrations (e.g., SO42- dry and wet deposition fluxes decrease over the eastern U.S. in summer and winter). Sensitivity simulations show that anthropogenic emission projections dominate over changes in climate in their impacts on the U.S. air quality in the near future. Changes in some regions/species, however, are dominated by climate and/or both climate and anthropogenic emissions, especially in future years that are marked by meteorological conditions conducive to poor air quality.« less

Comparative photosynthetic production of Mojave Desert shrubs. [Ambrosia dumosa, Lycium andersonii, L. pallidum, Larrea tridentata, Krameria parvifolia

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bamberg, S.A.; Kleinkopf, G.E.; Wallace, A.

Transpirational and net photosynthetic rates of several species of desert shrubs were measured as a function of season and environmental variables at the Nevada Test Site in the northern Mojave Desert. Drought-deciduous species, Ambrosia dumosa (Grey) Payne, Lycium andersonii Grey, and Lycium pallidum Miers, had higher maximum rates and greater water loss than the evergreen, Larrea tridentata Munz, and summer green, Krameria parvifolia Benth., species. Moisture status was the most critical factor determining gas exchange rates and affected temperature optima and acclimation as the season progressed. Because of a dry spring season, the drought-deciduous species became dormant in late May-earlymore » June; the other two species exhibited by mid-June a small positive CO/sub 2/ uptake during the morning period. Desert plant species, with few exceptions, are extremely labile and exhibit large variability and different adaptive strategies.« less

Weather-Dependent Risk for Legionnaires' Disease, United States.

PubMed

Simmering, Jacob E; Polgreen, Linnea A; Hornick, Douglas B; Sewell, Daniel K; Polgreen, Philip M

2017-11-01

Using the Nationwide Inpatient Sample and US weather data, we estimated the probability of community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) being diagnosed as Legionnaires' disease (LD). LD risk increases when weather is warm and humid. With warm weather, we found a dose-response relationship between relative humidity and the odds for LD. When the mean temperature was 60°-80°F with high humidity (>80.0%), the odds for CAP being diagnosed with LD were 3.1 times higher than with lower levels of humidity (<50.0%). Thus, in some regions (e.g., the Southwest), LD is rarely the cause of hospitalizations. In other regions and seasons (e.g., the mid-Atlantic in summer), LD is much more common. Thus, suspicion for LD should increase when weather is warm and humid. However, when weather is cold, dry, or extremely hot, empirically treating all CAP patients for LD might contribute to excessive antimicrobial drug use at a population level.

Water-balance wodel of a wetland on the Fort Berthold Reservation, North Dakota

USGS Publications Warehouse

Vining, Kevin C.

2007-01-01

A numerical water-balance model was developed to simulate the responses of a wetland on the Fort Berthold Reservation, North Dakota, to historical and possible extreme hydrological inputs and to changes in hydrological inputs that might occur if a proposed refinery is built on the reservation. Results from model simulations indicated that the study wetland would likely contain water during most historical and extreme-precipitation events with the addition of maximum potential discharges of 0.6 acre-foot per day from proposed refinery holding ponds. Extended periods with little precipitation and above-normal temperatures may result in the wetland becoming nearly dry, especially if potential holding-pond discharges are near zero. Daily simulations based on the historical-enhanced climate data set for May and June 2005, which included holding-pond discharges of 0.6 acre-foot per day, indicated that the study-wetland maximum simulated water volume was about 16.2 acre-feet and the maximum simulated water level was about 1.2 feet at the outlet culvert. Daily simulations based on the extreme summer data set, created to represent an extreme event with excessive June precipitation and holding-pond discharges of 0.6 acre-foot per day, indicated that the study-wetland maximum simulated water volume was about 38.6 acre-feet and the maximum simulated water level was about 2.6 feet at the outlet culvert. A simulation performed using the extreme winter climate data set and an outlet culvert blocked with snow and ice resulted in the greatest simulated wetland water volume of about 132 acre-feet and the greatest simulated water level, which would have been about 6.2 feet at the outlet culvert, but water was not likely to overflow an adjacent highway.

The year without a summer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luterbacher, J.; Pfister, C.

2015-04-01

The 1815 eruption of Tambora caused an unusually cold summer in much of Europe in 1816. The extreme weather led to poor harvests and malnutrition, but also demonstrated the capability of humans to adapt and help others in worse conditions.

The Sinuosity of Atmospheric Circulation over North America and its Relationship to Arctic Climate Change and Extreme Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vavrus, S. J.; Wang, F.; Martin, J. E.; Francis, J. A.

2015-12-01

Recent research has suggested a relationship between mid-latitude weather and Arctic amplification (AA) of global climate change via a slower and wavier extratropical circulation inducing more extreme events. To test this hypothesis and to quantify the waviness of the extratropical flow, we apply a novel application of the geomorphological concept of sinuosity (SIN) over greater North America. SIN is defined as the ratio of the curvilinear length of a geopotential height contour to the perimeter of its equivalent latitude, where the contour and the equivalent latitude enclose the same area. We use 500 hPa daily heights from reanalysis and model simulations to calculate past and future SIN. The circulation exhibits a distinct annual cycle of maximum SIN (waviness) in summer and a minimum in winter, inversely related to the annual cycle of zonal wind speed. Positive trends in SIN have emerged in recent decades during winter and summer at several latitude bands, generally collocated with negative trends in zonal wind speeds. High values of SIN coincide with many prominent extreme-weather events, including Superstorm Sandy. RCP8.5 simulations (2006-2100) project a dipole pattern of zonal wind changes that varies seasonally. In winter, AA causes inflated heights over the Arctic relative to mid-latitudes and an associated weakening (strengthening) of the westerlies north (south) of 40N. The AA signal in summer is strongest over upper-latitude land, promoting localized atmospheric ridging aloft with lighter westerlies to the south and stronger zonal winds to the north. The changes in wind speeds in both seasons are inversely correlated with SIN, indicating a wavier circulation where the flow weakens. In summer the lighter winds over much of the U. S. resemble circulation anomalies observed during extreme summer heat and drought. Such changes may be linked to enhanced heating of upper-latitude land surfaces caused by earlier snow melt during spring-summer.

The McMurdo Dry Valleys, Antarctica: Terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems responding to climatic events that enhance hydrologic transport acress the landscape

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McKnight, D. M.; Lyons, W. B.; Fountain, A. G.; Gooseff, M. N.; Doran, P. T.; Wall, D. H.; Virginia, R. A.; Priscu, J. C.; Adams, B.; Vesbach-Takacs, C.; Barrett, J. E.; Howkins, A.

2014-12-01

The McMurdo Dry Valleys of Antarctica is comprised of alpine and terminal glaciers, large expanses of patterned ground, and permanently ice-covered lakes in the valley floors, which are linked by glacial meltwater streams that flow during the austral summer. These valleys were first explored by Robert Scott and his party in 1903. In 1968 the New Zealand Antarctic Program began a gauging network on the Onyx River, a 32 km river in Wright Valley which is the longest river in Antarctica. As part of the McMurdo Dry Valleys Long-Term Ecological research project our research group has monitored meteorological conditions, glacial mass balance, lake level and streamflow in the adjacent Taylor Valley. The extent of liquid water throughout the landscape is strongly controlled by summer climate, and the availability of liquid water in turn is a limitation to the microscopic life that is present in the diverse habitats in the valleys. We have studied the responses of soil, lake, stream and cryoconite ecosystems through a sustained cooling period that has been driven by atmospheric changes associated with the ozone hole. In the past decade, this cooling period appears to have ceased and summer conditions have become more variable. Three warm sunny summers have occurred since 2001/02. These conditions have created weeks long "flood events" in the valleys, causing wet areas to emerge in the soils, thermokarsting in some stream channels and increases in lake level. These flood events can be considered as pulse events that drive an increase in ecosystem connectivity, changing rates of biogeochemical processes and the distribution of biota. Collectively the ecosystems of the McMurdo Dry Valleys are highly responsive to dynamic climatic influences associated with the ozone hole and global warming.

Spatial distribution of precipitation extremes in Norway

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verpe Dyrrdal, Anita; Skaugen, Thomas; Lenkoski, Alex; Thorarinsdottir, Thordis; Stordal, Frode; Førland, Eirik J.

2015-04-01

Estimates of extreme precipitation, in terms of return levels, are crucial in planning and design of important infrastructure. Through two separate studies, we have examined the levels and spatial distribution of daily extreme precipitation over catchments in Norway, and hourly extreme precipitation in a point. The analyses were carried out through the development of two new methods for estimating extreme precipitation in Norway. For daily precipitation we fit the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution to areal time series from a gridded dataset, consisting of daily precipitation during the period 1957-today with a resolution of 1x1 km². This grid-based method is more objective and less manual and time-consuming compared to the existing method at MET Norway. In addition, estimates in ungauged catchments are easier to obtain, and the GEV approach includes a measure of uncertainty, which is a requirement in climate studies today. Further, we go into depth on the debated GEV shape parameter, which plays an important role for longer return periods. We show that it varies according to dominating precipitation types, having positive values in the southeast and negative values in the southwest. We also find indications that the degree of orographic enhancement might affect the shape parameter. For hourly precipitation, we estimate return levels on a 1x1 km² grid, by linking GEV distributions with latent Gaussian fields in a Bayesian hierarchical model (BHM). Generalized linear models on the GEV parameters, estimated from observations, are able to incorporate location-specific geographic and meteorological information and thereby accommodate these effects on extreme precipitation. Gaussian fields capture additional unexplained spatial heterogeneity and overcome the sparse grid on which observations are collected, while a Bayesian model averaging component directly assesses model uncertainty. We find that mean summer precipitation, mean summer temperature, latitude, longitude, mean annual precipitation and elevation are good covariate candidates for hourly precipitation in our model. Summer indices succeed because hourly precipitation extremes often occur during the convective season. The spatial distribution of hourly and daily precipitation differs in Norway. Daily precipitation extremes are larger along the southwestern coast, where large-scale frontal systems dominate during fall season and the mountain ridge generates strong orographic enhancement. The largest hourly precipitation extremes are mostly produced by intense convective showers during summer, and are thus found along the entire southern coast, including the Oslo-region.

Temporal and spatial patterns of extreme low flows and effects on stream ecosystems in Otago, New Zealand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caruso, B. S.

2002-02-01

The temporal and spatial patterns of summer extreme low flows and effects on stream ecosystems were evaluated throughout the Otago Region of the South Island of New Zealand during a severe drought in 1998-1999. Flows, water quality, and aquatic biology were monitored bimonthly at 12 locations as part of a long-term regional monitoring programme and results were evaluated and compared among summer 1998-1999 and all previous summers, as well as among three major subregions. Flows during the drought were extremely low for prolonged periods in many locations, particularly in North Otago. At most sites temperatures were slightly higher for a longer period than during other summers. In predominantly agricultural/pastoral catchments, widespread bacterial contamination of streams occurred due to increased livestock use of watercourses and decreased dilution during low flows. Concentrations of other contaminants derived from non-point sources, including nitrogen, phosphorus, and sediment, decreased in many locations due to the lack of rainfall and runoff events. Electrical conductivity generally increased as a result of the lack of dilution and increased evaporation and groundwater inputs. Overall water quality was worst in agricultural catchments in South Otago, and returned to conditions prior to the low flows by late autumn in most areas. The diversity of benthic macroinvertebrate communities and number of sensitive taxa decreased somewhat in many locations, but the magnitude and duration of these effects were not great. Differences between summer 1998-1999 and other periods, and among subregions, were not significant. Although some differences in low flows and effects on stream ecosystems across a range of landscapes and catchments can occur, the rapid recovery of water quality and benthic macroinvertebrates in most locations indicates that many streams are resilient to extreme low flows and drought with minor long-term effects.

Know your limits? Climate extremes impact the range of Scots pine in unexpected places

PubMed Central

Julio Camarero, J.; Gazol, Antonio; Sancho-Benages, Santiago; Sangüesa-Barreda, Gabriel

2015-01-01

Background and Aims Although extreme climatic events such as drought are known to modify forest dynamics by triggering tree dieback, the impact of extreme cold events, especially at the low-latitude margin (‘rear edge’) of species distributional ranges, has received little attention. The aim of this study was to examine the impact of one such extreme cold event on a population of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) along the species’ European southern rear-edge range limit and to determine how such events can be incorporated into species distribution models (SDMs). Methods A combination of dendrochronology and field observation was used to quantify how an extreme cold event in 2001 in eastern Spain affected growth, needle loss and mortality of Scots pine. Long-term European climatic data sets were used to contextualize the severity of the 2001 event, and an SDM for Scots pine in Europe was used to predict climatic range limits. Key Results The 2001 winter reached record minimum temperatures (equivalent to the maximum European-wide diurnal ranges) and, for trees already stressed by a preceding dry summer and autumn, this caused dieback and large-scale mortality. Needle loss and mortality were particularly evident in south-facing sites, where post-event recovery was greatly reduced. The SDM predicted European Scots pine distribution mainly on the basis of responses to maximum and minimum monthly temperatures, but in comparison with this the observed effects of the 2001 cold event at the southerly edge of the range limit were unforeseen. Conclusions The results suggest that in order to better forecast how anthropogenic climate change might affect future forest distributions, distribution modelling techniques such as SDMs must incorporate climatic extremes. For Scots pine, this study shows that the effects of cold extremes should be included across the entire distribution margin, including the southern ‘rear edge’, in order to avoid biased predictions based solely on warmer climatic scenarios. PMID:26292992

Anisohydric water use behavior links growing season evaporative demand to ring-width increment in conifers from summer-dry environments

Treesearch

Steve L. Voelker; R. Justin DeRose; Matthew F. Bekker; Chalita Sriladda; Nisa Leksungnoen; Roger K. Kjelgren

2018-01-01

Conifers in the Pinaceae and Cupressaceae from dry environments have been shown to broadly differ in their stomatal sensitivity to soil drying that result in isohydric versus anisohydric water use behavior, respectively. Here, we first employ a series of drought experiments and field observations to confirm the degree of isohydric versus anisohydric water use behavior...

Spatiotemporal variation and statistical characteristic of extreme precipitation in the middle reaches of the Yellow River Basin during 1960-2013

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Yin; Xia, Jun; She, Dunxian

2018-01-01

In recent decades, extreme precipitation events have been a research hotspot worldwide. Based on 12 extreme precipitation indices, the spatiotemporal variation and statistical characteristic of precipitation extremes in the middle reaches of the Yellow River Basin (MRYRB) during 1960-2013 were investigated. The results showed that the values of most extreme precipitation indices (except consecutive dry days (CDD)) increased from the northwest to the southeast of the MRYRB, reflecting that the southeast was the wettest region in the study area. Temporally, the precipitation extremes presented a drying trend with less frequent precipitation events. Generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution was selected to fit the time series of all indices, and the quantiles values under the 50-year return period showed a similar spatial extent with the corresponding precipitation extreme indices during 1960-2013, indicating a higher risk of extreme precipitation in the southeast of the MRYRB. Furthermore, the changes in probability distribution functions of indices for the period of 1960-1986 and 1987-2013 revealed a drying tendency in our study area. Both El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) were proved to have a strong influence on precipitation extremes in the MRYRB. The results of this study are useful to master the change rule of local precipitation extremes, which will help to prevent natural hazards caused.

Using ensembles in water management: forecasting dry and wet episodes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van het Schip-Haverkamp, Tessa; van den Berg, Wim; van de Beek, Remco

2015-04-01

Extreme weather situations as droughts and extensive precipitation are becoming more frequent, which makes it more important to obtain accurate weather forecasts for the short and long term. Ensembles can provide a solution in terms of scenario forecasts. MeteoGroup uses ensembles in a new forecasting technique which presents a number of weather scenarios for a dynamical water management project, called Water-Rijk, in which water storage and water retention plays a large role. The Water-Rijk is part of Park Lingezegen, which is located between Arnhem and Nijmegen in the Netherlands. In collaboration with the University of Wageningen, Alterra and Eijkelkamp a forecasting system is developed for this area which can provide water boards with a number of weather and hydrology scenarios in order to assist in the decision whether or not water retention or water storage is necessary in the near future. In order to make a forecast for drought and extensive precipitation, the difference 'precipitation- evaporation' is used as a measurement of drought in the weather forecasts. In case of an upcoming drought this difference will take larger negative values. In case of a wet episode, this difference will be positive. The Makkink potential evaporation is used which gives the most accurate potential evaporation values during the summer, when evaporation plays an important role in the availability of surface water. Scenarios are determined by reducing the large number of forecasts in the ensemble to a number of averaged members with each its own likelihood of occurrence. For the Water-Rijk project 5 scenario forecasts are calculated: extreme dry, dry, normal, wet and extreme wet. These scenarios are constructed for two forecasting periods, each using its own ensemble technique: up to 48 hours ahead and up to 15 days ahead. The 48-hour forecast uses an ensemble constructed from forecasts of multiple high-resolution regional models: UKMO's Euro4 model,the ECMWF model, WRF and Hirlam. Using multiple model runs and additional post processing, an ensemble can be created from non-ensemble models. The 15-day forecast uses the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System forecast from which scenarios can be deduced directly. A combination of the ensembles from the two forecasting periods is used in order to have the highest possible resolution of the forecast for the first 48 hours followed by the lower resolution long term forecast.

Observed response of vulnerable forest ecosystems to ongoing site condition changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bidló, András; Gulyás, Krisztina; Gálos, Borbála; Horváth, Adrienn

2017-04-01

In the last decades, several symptoms of drought damages have been observed in the Hungarian forests (e.g. sparse canopy, leaf drop, top drying, fungal diseases). Forest responses are also influenced by other factors beyond climate (e.g. available water content, soil conditions, biotic damages, adaptive capacity, etc.). Our aim was to prepare a complex analysis of the change of all site conditions, that could lead to the observed health status decline of the forest tree species. For a case study region in Hungary (Keszthely Mountains, near to Lake Balaton) precipitation and temperature tendencies as well as the frequency of extreme dry summers have been determined for the period 1961-2100. Soil conditions have been investigated in 9 profiles and soil mapping analysis has been carried out including 100 sites with hand soil auger. For the investigation of the water-balance we used the modified Thornthwaite-type monthly model and determined water stress when the relative extractable water (REW) decreased below 40% (Granier et al., 1999). In the last 30 years three severe droughts have been detected when duration of extremely dry and hot periods exceeded 3-4 years. Not only orographic and microclimate conditions but also soil types show a large diversity within a relatively small distance in the case study area. On rendzina with shallow topsoil layer thickness, low water holding capacity, black pine was planted. Brown earth with medium and brown forest soils with deep topsoil layer thickness is favourable for oak (sessile or Turkey) and beech. These microscale differences between the three site condition types resulted different available water contents quantified by the modified Thornthwaite-type monthly water-balance model. Our results show the different sensitivity of the studied sites to water stress. It means that the local scale orographic and soil conditions can enhance the projected drought risk of the region. However, the favourable microclimatic effects of the existing forest stands are still a knowledge gap and the topic of the ongoing research. The research is supported by the "Agroclimate-2" (VKSZ_12-1-2013-0034) joint EU-national research project and by the ÚNKP-16-4-3 New National Excellence Program of the Ministry of Human Capacities. Keywords: climate extremes, changing site conditions, water stress

Ensemble of regional climate model projections for Ireland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nolan, Paul; McGrath, Ray

2016-04-01

The method of Regional Climate Modelling (RCM) was employed to assess the impacts of a warming climate on the mid-21st-century climate of Ireland. The RCM simulations were run at high spatial resolution, up to 4 km, thus allowing a better evaluation of the local effects of climate change. Simulations were run for a reference period 1981-2000 and future period 2041-2060. Differences between the two periods provide a measure of climate change. To address the issue of uncertainty, a multi-model ensemble approach was employed. Specifically, the future climate of Ireland was simulated using three different RCMs, driven by four Global Climate Models (GCMs). To account for the uncertainty in future emissions, a number of SRES (B1, A1B, A2) and RCP (4.5, 8.5) emission scenarios were used to simulate the future climate. Through the ensemble approach, the uncertainty in the RCM projections can be partially quantified, thus providing a measure of confidence in the predictions. In addition, likelihood values can be assigned to the projections. The RCMs used in this work are the COnsortium for Small-scale MOdeling-Climate Limited-area Modelling (COSMO-CLM, versions 3 and 4) model and the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The GCMs used are the Max Planck Institute's ECHAM5, the UK Met Office's HadGEM2-ES, the CGCM3.1 model from the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and the EC-Earth consortium GCM. The projections for mid-century indicate an increase of 1-1.6°C in mean annual temperatures, with the largest increases seen in the east of the country. Warming is enhanced for the extremes (i.e. hot or cold days), with the warmest 5% of daily maximum summer temperatures projected to increase by 0.7-2.6°C. The coldest 5% of night-time temperatures in winter are projected to rise by 1.1-3.1°C. Averaged over the whole country, the number of frost days is projected to decrease by over 50%. The projections indicate an average increase in the length of the growing season of over 35 days per year. Results show significant projected decreases in mean annual, spring and summer precipitation amounts by mid-century. The projected decreases are largest for summer, with "likely" reductions ranging from 0% to 20%. The frequencies of heavy precipitation events show notable increases (approximately 20%) during the winter and autumn months. The number of extended dry periods is projected to increase substantially during autumn and summer. Regional variations of projected precipitation change remain statistically elusive. The energy content of the wind is projected to significantly decrease for the future spring, summer and autumn months. Projected increases for winter were found to be statistically insignificant. The projected decreases were largest for summer, with "likely" values ranging from 3% to 15%. Results suggest that the tracks of intense storms are projected to extend further south over Ireland relative to those in the reference simulation. As extreme storm events are rare, the storm-tracking research needs to be extended. Future work will focus on analysing a larger ensemble, thus allowing a robust statistical analysis of extreme storm track projections.

Perceptions of Heat Risk to Health: A Qualitative Study of Professional Bus Drivers and Their Managers in Jinan, China

PubMed Central

Zhou, Lin; Xin, Zheng; Bai, Li; Wan, Fangjun; Wang, Yongming; Sang, Shaowei; Liu, Shouqin; Zhang, Ji; Liu, Qiyong

2014-01-01

Summer extreme heat threatens the health of individuals, especially persons who are involved in outdoor activities. Ensuring the normal function of a city, bus drivers are among those who participate in outdoor physical activities and are exposed to excessive heat in hot summer weather. This qualitative study was performed to explore professional bus drivers’ in-depth views of extreme heat risks to their health, and ultimately develop targeted advice and policy interventions for city bus drivers. An interview-based study was performed among professional bus drivers in Jinan, China, including four focus groups with professional bus drivers (n = 37) and three interviews with their managers (n = 14). Five central themes or categories from the bus driver interviews were found: concerns about summer heat; health effects related to extreme heat; adaptive measures; barriers in implementing these adaptive measures; and suggested interventions. The beneficial role of cooling facilities (particularly air-conditioning) during extreme heat are addressed. The barriers not only impede the implementation of behavioral adaptive measures but also enhance the negative attitudes of bus drivers towards their effectiveness. The responsibilities of managers in promoting preventive actions are addressed. PMID:24477213

Using dry and wet year hydroclimatic extremes to guide future hydrologic projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oni, Stephen; Futter, Martyn; Ledesma, Jose; Teutschbein, Claudia; Buttle, Jim; Laudon, Hjalmar

2016-07-01

There are growing numbers of studies on climate change impacts on forest hydrology, but limited attempts have been made to use current hydroclimatic variabilities to constrain projections of future climatic conditions. Here we used historical wet and dry years as a proxy for expected future extreme conditions in a boreal catchment. We showed that runoff could be underestimated by at least 35 % when dry year parameterizations were used for wet year conditions. Uncertainty analysis showed that behavioural parameter sets from wet and dry years separated mainly on precipitation-related parameters and to a lesser extent on parameters related to landscape processes, while uncertainties inherent in climate models (as opposed to differences in calibration or performance metrics) appeared to drive the overall uncertainty in runoff projections under dry and wet hydroclimatic conditions. Hydrologic model calibration for climate impact studies could be based on years that closely approximate anticipated conditions to better constrain uncertainty in projecting extreme conditions in boreal and temperate regions.

Ecohydrological Consequences of Critical Zone Structure in the Franciscan Formation, Northern California Coast Ranges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hahm, W. J.; Dietrich, W. E.; Dawson, T. E.; Lovill, S.; Rempe, D.

2016-12-01

Water availability regulates ecosystem function, particularly in seasonally dry climates where lack of moisture in the growing season acts as an ecological bottleneck. Water within hillslopes is extracted by plants during transpiration and also delivered to streams to support baseflow for riparian ecosystems and human use. How water is stored and then released from hillslopes is strongly influenced by the structure of the critical zone (CZ) that emerges from the complex interaction of lithology, climate, and tectonics. Here we show how contrasting CZ development has extreme ecohydrological consequences in the seasonally dry climate of the Northern California Coast Ranges. To explore how the CZ transmits and stores water, we studied hydrologic dynamics at two sites with similar climate across belts of the Franciscan Formation in the Eel River CZO. We monitored plant water use, precipitation inputs and stream runoff, groundwater and vadose zone moisture dynamics and documented near-surface hydraulic conductivity and runoff-generation processes. We investigated CZ structure via boreholes and geophysical methods. We find that CZ thickness determines the extent to which hillslopes `shed' or `store' wet season precipitation, and fundamentally controls the structure of plant communities and summer low-flows. In a climate where winter precipitation regularly exceeds 2000 mm, the thin CZ of the sheared argillite matrix Central belt rapidly fills, resulting in wet-season saturation overland flow that drives flashy winter runoff in channels that then quickly run dry in the early summer. The maximum unsaturated moisture storage of approximately 200 mm is sufficient to host an ecologically diverse yet sparsely forested oak savanna. In contrast, the thick CZ of the interbedded argillite and greywacke Coastal belt stores up to 600 mm of winter precipitation in the unsaturated zone and a seasonal groundwater system within fractured bedrock provides year-round flow to channels, supporting dense mixed coniferous-broadleaf evergreen forest and native resident salmonids. These findings underscore the importance of understanding how the structure of the CZ develops by directly pairing hillslope moisture storage and release to the composition and resilience of terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems.

Delayed and reduced carbon uptake in a subarctic peatland following an extreme winter event

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parmentier, F. J. W.; Rasse, D. P.; Lund, M.; Bjerke, J. W.; Drake, B. G.; Weldon, S.; Tømmervik, H. A.; Hansen, G.

2017-12-01

An increase in the frequency of extreme winter events in the Arctic may lead to more widespread damage to shrub-dominated ecosystems, including peatlands. In principle, such damage should reduce carbon uptake in the following summer, but the resilience of northern ecosystems to extreme winter events remains unclear due to a dearth of flux measurements from affected areas. In this talk, therefore, we report CO2 fluxes measured with eddy covariance from a peatland in northern Norway and show that vegetation productivity was delayed and reduced during the summer of 2014, following an extreme winter event. Strong frost and the absence of a protective snow cover in January of that year - its combined intensity unprecedented in the local climate record - led to severe dieback of the shrub species Calluna vulgaris and Empetrum nigrum. Similar vegetation damage was reported at the time along 1000 km of coastal Norway, indicating the widespread impact of this frost drought event. Consequently, gross primary production (GPP) showed a strong delayed response to temperature, from snowmelt up to the peak of summer, potentially reducing carbon uptake by 15 (0-24) g C m-2 ( 13% of GPP in that period). The delayed response of the vegetation was also exhibited in remotely-sensed NDVI values, with a maximum two weeks later than normal and at the lowest level in more than a decade. Photosynthesis was eventually stimulated by the warm and sunny summer, but ecosystem respiration increased as well - which limited net carbon uptake. This study shows that damage from a single extreme winter event can have a profound impact on ecosystem CO2 uptake, and it highlights the importance of including winter-induced shrub damage in terrestrial ecosystem models to accurately predict vegetation and carbon sequestration trends in the arctic and boreal region.

Influence of changing surface temperature gradients on mid-latitudinal circulation and western hemispheric summer temperature extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kornhuber, Kai; Hoffmann, Peter; Coumou, Dim

2017-04-01

Many recent summers in the Northern hemisphere (NH) mid-latitudes have seen severe heatwaves (2003, 2004, 2009, 2010, 2012, 2015, (Black et al. 2004; Diffenbaugh & Scherer 2013; Russo et al. 2014; Hoy et al. 2016)). During many of those extremes the mid-latitudinal tropospheric circulation was characterized by an amplified, quasi-stationary and hemispheric wave pattern with a dominant influence of wavenumber seven (Coumou et al. 2014; Petoukhov et al. 2016; Kornhuber et al. 2016). Analyzing NH summer reanalysis data we show that the position where these heat extremes occur is not arbitrary. If the amplitude of wave seven is large, the wave gets "locked" in a specific preferred phase position. As a consequence of this phase-locking behavior some regions are more likely to experience extreme weather during high-amplitude events. Meridional wind speeds associated with the preferred phase are particularly strong over longitudes of the western hemisphere (180°W - 40°E) leading to positive temperature anomalies over the US and Western Europe. Using a widely-used blocking-index we demonstrate that longitudes over these regions experience an increased probability of blocking during high amplitude wave seven events. We show that during the above mentioned extreme summers, amplified waves were locked in their preferred phase-position creating the right dynamical background condition for severe heatwaves to occur. Further, regression analyses reveal that a pronounced Ocean - Land temperature contrast (Tdiff) and weak poleward surface temperature gradient (dT/dy) are associated with an amplified wave seven in its preferred phase-position. Our study suggests that the observed positive trend in Tdiff and negative trend in dT/dy favors the occurrence of high-amplitude, quasi-stationary wave seven in its preferred phase position and therefore persistent heatwaves in the US and western Europe.

Cool North European summers and possible links to explosive volcanic eruptions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, P. D.; Melvin, T. M.; Harpham, C.; Grudd, H.; Helama, S.

2013-06-01

Exactly dated tree-ring measurements such as ring width (TRW) and maximum latewood density (MXD), which are sensitive to summer temperatures, can provide possible routes to investigate the occurrence of hemispheric-wide cool summers that might be linked to explosive tropical volcanic eruptions. These measurements can provide much longer records than the instrumental period, enabling much longer periods to be assessed and offers the potential to look at much larger eruptions than recorded over the last 200 years. This paper looks at TRW evidence from Northern Fennoscandia extending over the last 7500 years, using two independently produced chronologies from northern Sweden and northern Finland. TRW is less responsive than MXD to cool summer temperatures, but MXD is only available for the last 2000 years. Additionally, looking at a relatively small location, compared to the Northern Hemisphere average, adds considerable noise. Progress in this area is likely to be made by developing more millennial-long TRW series across northern high latitudes or being able to develop MXD series from the sub-fossil material, which comprises most of the samples prior to the last 1000 years. The three most extreme negative values for the region for the last 2000 years are 1601, 542, and 1837, although the latter is not extreme in a long instrumental record for the region. The most extreme year of all occurred in 330BC. Of the 20 most extreme negative years, nine occurred during the AD years with the remaining 11 occurring during the prior 5500 years.

Role of summer prescribed fire to manage shrub-invaded grasslands

Treesearch

Charles A. Taylor

2007-01-01

Prior to development of the livestock industry, both anthropogenic and natural disturbances (such as prescribed and wild fire) played key roles in shaping the different plant communities across Texas. Historically, fires occurred during all seasons of the year, but summer fires were probably more frequent due to dry conditions combined with increased lightning...

7 CFR Appendix A to Part 225 - Alternate Foods for Meals

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... Used in the Summer Food Service Program? 1. An alternate protein product used in meals planned under..., manufacturers should provide information on: (1) The amount by weight of dry alternate protein product in the... meat alternates. B. How Are Alternate Protein Products Used in the Summer Food Service Program? 1...

7 CFR Appendix A to Part 225 - Alternate Foods for Meals

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... Used in the Summer Food Service Program? 1. An alternate protein product used in meals planned under..., manufacturers should provide information on: (1) The amount by weight of dry alternate protein product in the... meat alternates. B. How Are Alternate Protein Products Used in the Summer Food Service Program? 1...

7 CFR Appendix A to Part 225 - Alternate Foods for Meals

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... Used in the Summer Food Service Program? 1. An alternate protein product used in meals planned under..., manufacturers should provide information on: (1) The amount by weight of dry alternate protein product in the... meat alternates. B. How Are Alternate Protein Products Used in the Summer Food Service Program? 1...

7 CFR Appendix A to Part 225 - Alternate Foods for Meals

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... Used in the Summer Food Service Program? 1. An alternate protein product used in meals planned under..., manufacturers should provide information on: (1) The amount by weight of dry alternate protein product in the... meat alternates. B. How Are Alternate Protein Products Used in the Summer Food Service Program? 1...

7 CFR Appendix A to Part 225 - Alternate Foods for Meals

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... Used in the Summer Food Service Program? 1. An alternate protein product used in meals planned under..., manufacturers should provide information on: (1) The amount by weight of dry alternate protein product in the... meat alternates. B. How Are Alternate Protein Products Used in the Summer Food Service Program? 1...

Tipping a SPRUCE tree over - how extreme heat and desiccation may push southern boreal species beyond their capacity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Warren, J.; Childs, J.; Ward, E. J.; Wullschleger, S.; Hanson, P. J.

2016-12-01

Since August 2015, the Spruce and Peatland Responses under Climatic and Environmental Change (SPRUCE) climate change experiment (http://mnspruce.ornl.gov/) in Northern Minnesota, USA, has exposed 13 m diameter plots of an ombrotrophic Picea mariana - Ericaceous shrub - Sphagnum bog ecosystem to long-term temperature (T) (0 to +9 °C) and since June 2016, elevated CO2 treatments (ambient or + 500 ppm). In addition to their direct impacts, the T and CO2 treatments have dramatically impacted soil water availability, vapor pressure deficit and # days dew point is reached. We examined plant water relations of Picea mariana (black spruce), Larix laricina (tamarack), and several Ericaceous shrubs including seasonal patterns of water potential (ψ), in addition to sap flow in the in trees. Granier-style thermal dissipation sensors were calibrated in situ (outside plots) by cutting instrumented trees and measuring their actual water uptake. Maximum summer T in N Minnesota reaches 35 °C, and optimal photosynthetic activity for P. mariana at the site peaks between 35-38°C. Treatments have resulted in air T reaching 45°C in the warmest plots resulting in substantial physiological stress. Pretreatment sap flow typically began by late May and was fairly constant over the season until declining in mid-September and ceasing as temperatures dropped below zero. Once the T treatments began, sap flow began earlier in the spring and continued later in the fall indicating an expanded physiological season that can result in plant vulnerability to extreme cold events. Indeed, foliar damage was evident in warmer plots following a spring freeze event in 2016. In addition, the drying heat has resulted in additional foliar damage, indicated by large reductions in predawn water potentials (even in the spring), quicker drying following rain events, and water stress reached earlier in the day. Midday mean summer ψ was -1.5 MPa for P. mariana foliage, higher than the co-occurring L. laricina (-2.0 MPa), but lower than shrubs (-1.1 MPa). Based on hydraulic measurements of excised tissue, P. mariana foliage remained higher that its turgor loss point (TLP), while midday L. laricina foliage often reached its TLP. Initial results indicate the potential for shifts in community composition due to differential heat and water stress among the species.

Quality-control of an hourly rainfall dataset and climatology of extremes for the UK.

PubMed

Blenkinsop, Stephen; Lewis, Elizabeth; Chan, Steven C; Fowler, Hayley J

2017-02-01

Sub-daily rainfall extremes may be associated with flash flooding, particularly in urban areas but, compared with extremes on daily timescales, have been relatively little studied in many regions. This paper describes a new, hourly rainfall dataset for the UK based on ∼1600 rain gauges from three different data sources. This includes tipping bucket rain gauge data from the UK Environment Agency (EA), which has been collected for operational purposes, principally flood forecasting. Significant problems in the use of such data for the analysis of extreme events include the recording of accumulated totals, high frequency bucket tips, rain gauge recording errors and the non-operation of gauges. Given the prospect of an intensification of short-duration rainfall in a warming climate, the identification of such errors is essential if sub-daily datasets are to be used to better understand extreme events. We therefore first describe a series of procedures developed to quality control this new dataset. We then analyse ∼380 gauges with near-complete hourly records for 1992-2011 and map the seasonal climatology of intense rainfall based on UK hourly extremes using annual maxima, n-largest events and fixed threshold approaches. We find that the highest frequencies and intensities of hourly extreme rainfall occur during summer when the usual orographically defined pattern of extreme rainfall is replaced by a weaker, north-south pattern. A strong diurnal cycle in hourly extremes, peaking in late afternoon to early evening, is also identified in summer and, for some areas, in spring. This likely reflects the different mechanisms that generate sub-daily rainfall, with convection dominating during summer. The resulting quality-controlled hourly rainfall dataset will provide considerable value in several contexts, including the development of standard, globally applicable quality-control procedures for sub-daily data, the validation of the new generation of very high-resolution climate models and improved understanding of the drivers of extreme rainfall.

Quality‐control of an hourly rainfall dataset and climatology of extremes for the UK

PubMed Central

Lewis, Elizabeth; Chan, Steven C.; Fowler, Hayley J.

2016-01-01

ABSTRACT Sub‐daily rainfall extremes may be associated with flash flooding, particularly in urban areas but, compared with extremes on daily timescales, have been relatively little studied in many regions. This paper describes a new, hourly rainfall dataset for the UK based on ∼1600 rain gauges from three different data sources. This includes tipping bucket rain gauge data from the UK Environment Agency (EA), which has been collected for operational purposes, principally flood forecasting. Significant problems in the use of such data for the analysis of extreme events include the recording of accumulated totals, high frequency bucket tips, rain gauge recording errors and the non‐operation of gauges. Given the prospect of an intensification of short‐duration rainfall in a warming climate, the identification of such errors is essential if sub‐daily datasets are to be used to better understand extreme events. We therefore first describe a series of procedures developed to quality control this new dataset. We then analyse ∼380 gauges with near‐complete hourly records for 1992–2011 and map the seasonal climatology of intense rainfall based on UK hourly extremes using annual maxima, n‐largest events and fixed threshold approaches. We find that the highest frequencies and intensities of hourly extreme rainfall occur during summer when the usual orographically defined pattern of extreme rainfall is replaced by a weaker, north–south pattern. A strong diurnal cycle in hourly extremes, peaking in late afternoon to early evening, is also identified in summer and, for some areas, in spring. This likely reflects the different mechanisms that generate sub‐daily rainfall, with convection dominating during summer. The resulting quality‐controlled hourly rainfall dataset will provide considerable value in several contexts, including the development of standard, globally applicable quality‐control procedures for sub‐daily data, the validation of the new generation of very high‐resolution climate models and improved understanding of the drivers of extreme rainfall. PMID:28239235

Extreme Heat Wave over European Russia in Summer 2010: Anomaly or a Manifestation of Climatic Trend?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Razuvaev, V.; Groisman, P. Y.; Bulygina, O.; Borzenkova, I.

2010-12-01

Extraordinary temperature anomalies over European Russia (ER) in summer 2010 raised a legitimate question in the title of this presentation. A 60-days-long hot anticyclonic weather system with daily temperature anomalies as high as +10K and no or negligible amount of rainfall first decimated crops in the forest-steppe zone of ER, gradually dried wetlands in the forest zone and, finally, caused numerous natural and anthropogenic fires that at the time of this abstract preparation have not yet been extinguished. The extreme heat, lack of precipitation, and forest fires have caused hundreds of deaths and multimillion dollars in property losses. Indirect losses of lives due to this weather anomaly, with the ensuing fires and related air pollution, as well as the absence of air conditioning in apartments has yet to be estimated. The center of European Russia was well covered by meteorological observations for the past 130 years. These data, historical weather records (yearbooks or "letopisi" , which were carried on in the major Russian monasteries), and finally, dendroclimatological information, all show that this summer temperature anomaly was well above all known extremes in the past 1000 years. Like ocean waves and ocean tides, weather and climate variability go together strengthening (or mitigating) each other. We shall show the precursors of the current outbreak using principally the most accurate meteorological records of the past century updated to 2009 (at the Session, the 2010 data will also be presented). While a careful analyses of these records and thoughtful analyses of recent similar temperature outbreaks in Western Europe could not prevent the occurrence of this disaster, the lessons learned from these analyses (a) would warn about its increasing probability and (b) mitigation and adaptation measures could well be made to reduce its negative consequences. Among our arguments are: (1)There is a century-long tendency of reduction of equator minus pole temperature differences which is the meridional temperature gradient that controls westerly flow over the extratopics; (2)There is a well documented global temperature rise which is directly related to the increase in frequency of large blocking waves over Europe (so-called Meridional and Eastern macro-circulation types according to the Wangengeim-Girs classification); (3)There is an earlier onset and a shorter period of snowmelt documented over East Europe for the past several decades; (4) There is a paleoclimatic evidence that summer conditions were drier than now during the warmer period of the past; and (5) During the past 130 years prior to 2010 there was a significant increase in the frequency of "hot nights" with Tmin ≥75°F (≥23.9°C) over ER. These "hot nights" are known to directly correlate with health problems (including premature death rates) in the mid-latitude countries (e.g., the U.S.). Of course, nobody could predict the size and timing for an extraordinary weather anomaly in summer 2010 using climate change considerations. But, the ongoing climatic changes staged the scene for it over ER and increased its probability.

Changes in Concurrent Precipitation and Temperature Extremes

DOE PAGES

Hao, Zengchao; AghaKouchak, Amir; Phillips, Thomas J.

2013-08-01

While numerous studies have addressed changes in climate extremes, analyses of concurrence of climate extremes are scarce, and climate change effects on joint extremes are rarely considered. This study assesses the occurrence of joint (concurrent) monthly continental precipitation and temperature extremes in Climate Research Unit (CRU) and University of Delaware (UD) observations, and in 13 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) global climate simulations. Moreover, the joint occurrences of precipitation and temperature extremes simulated by CMIP5 climate models are compared with those derived from the CRU and UD observations for warm/wet, warm/dry, cold/wet, and cold/dry combinations of joint extremes.more » The number of occurrences of these four combinations during the second half of the 20th century (1951–2004) is assessed on a common global grid. CRU and UD observations show substantial increases in the occurrence of joint warm/dry and warm/wet combinations for the period 1978–2004 relative to 1951–1977. The results show that with respect to the sign of change in the concurrent extremes, the CMIP5 climate model simulations are in reasonable overall agreement with observations. The results reveal notable discrepancies between regional patterns and the magnitude of change in individual climate model simulations relative to the observations of precipitation and temperature.« less

Quantification of Microbial Osmolytes in a Drought Impacted California Grassland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boot, C. M.; Schaeffer, S. M.; Doyle, A. P.; Schimel, J. P.

2008-12-01

With drought frequency and severity likely increasing in the future, understanding its effect on terrestrial carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) cycling has become essential for accurately modeling ecosystem responses to climate change. Microbes respond to drought stress by accumulating internal solutes, or osmolytes, such as amino acids, betaines and polyols, to balance cell membrane water potential as the soil dries. However, when seasonal rains arrive, internal solutes are released and rapidly mineralized. We have been studying these processes in a California grassland. Beginning in summer 2007, we made monthly measurements of soil moisture, individual amino acid concentration in total soil and in microbial biomass, total dissolved organic carbon and nitrogen (DOC and DON), and microbial biomass carbon and nitrogen (MBC and MBN). We expected microbial concentrations of the known amino acid osmolytes glutamate (glu) and proline (pro) to fluctuate inversely with soil moisture. However, pro was only recovered in Mar 2008 (0.30 μg C g-1 dry soil) and the glu concentration varied proportionally with soil moisture: lowest during summer (0.06 g H2O g-1 dry soil, 2.22 μg glutamate-C g-1 dry soil) and highest in winter (0.27 g H2O g-1 dry soil, 4.43 μg glutamate-C g-1 dry soil). The trend from DOC, MBC, and DON measurements was opposite, however, with all concentrations decreasing as soil moisture shifted from dry to wet, (DOC: 64.61 to 32.49 μg C g-1 dry soil respectively). MBN was the exception to this trend, with concentrations staying nearly constant across seasons. These patterns suggest that the expected amino acids glu and pro are not being used for microbial osmoregulation in the CA grassland, and given the summer to winter decrease in MBC, the primary osmolyte source is likely to be either polyol-type compounds such as mannitol or betaines. The implications for terrestrial carbon cycle are considerable because as the frequency of drought increases, the accumulation and release of osmolytes in response to drought has potential to pump carbon out of the grassland ecosystem.

Response and Resiliency of Wildlife and Vegetation to Large-Scale Wildfires and Climate Change in the North Cascades

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bartowitz, K.; Morrison, P.; Romain-Bondi, K.; Smith, C. W.; Warne, L.; McGill, D.

2016-12-01

Changing climatic patterns have affected the western US in a variety of ways: decreases in precipitation and snowpack, earlier spring snowmelt, and increased lightning strikes have created a drier, more fire-prone system, despite variability in these characteristics. Wildfires are a natural phenomenon, but have been suppressed for much of the past century. Effects of this evolving fire regime on native vegetation and wildlife are not well understood. Increased frequency and intensity of fires coupled with subsequent drought and extreme heat may inhibit or alter recovery of native ecosystems. We are currently investigating how a mega-fire has affected presence of western gray squirrels (Sciurus griseus, WGS) in the North Cascades, and the mortality, survival, and recovery of vegetation following these fires and extreme drought. The Methow Valley in WA experienced a record-breaking wildfire in 2014, which disturbed nearly 50% of priority habitat of the North Cascades population of WGS. WGS were studied at the same pre and post-fire plots. WGS were present at over half of the post-burn plots (58%). There was a significant difference in the number of WGS hair samples collected in different levels of remaining vegetation: the most in moderate, few in low, and none in high. Vegetation recovery was assessed through field data, and a chronosequence of satellite images and aerial photography. 75% of the 2014 fire burned non-forested vegetation. Ponderosa pine forests comprised the rest. The forests experienced about 70% initial mortality. Recovery of the forest appears slower than in the shrub-steppe. First year seedling survival was poor due to an extremely hot, dry summer, while second year survival appears higher due to a cool, moist spring and summer. One year after a large, multi-severity fire we found WGS may be more resilient to disturbance such as fires than previously thought. Future studies of WGS will help elucidate long-term response to large-scale fires, and aid in management of the state-threatened species. The combination of severe fire and extreme heat/drought may result in shifts from shrub-steppe to grass/forb communities, as well as range contraction of ponderosa pine forests. The study reveals the importance of subsequent climatic conditions on vegetation recovery after a fire.

Western US high June 2015 temperatures and their relation to global warming and soil moisture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Philip, Sjoukje Y.; Kew, Sarah F.; Hauser, Mathias; Guillod, Benoit P.; Teuling, Adriaan J.; Whan, Kirien; Uhe, Peter; Oldenborgh, Geert Jan van

2018-04-01

The Western US states Washington (WA), Oregon (OR) and California (CA) experienced extremely high temperatures in June 2015. The temperature anomalies were so extreme that they cannot be explained with global warming alone. We investigate the hypothesis that soil moisture played an important role as well. We use a land surface model and a large ensemble from the weather@home modelling effort to investigate the coupling between soil moisture and temperature in a warming world. Both models show that May was anomalously dry, satisfying a prerequisite for the extreme heat wave, and they indicate that WA and OR are in a wet-to-dry transitional soil moisture regime. We use two different land surface-atmosphere coupling metrics to show that there was strong coupling between temperature, latent heat flux and the effect of soil moisture deficits on the energy balance in June 2015 in WA and OR. June temperature anomalies conditioned on wet/dry conditions show that both the mean and extreme temperatures become hotter for dry soils, especially in WA and OR. Fitting a Gaussian model to temperatures using soil moisture as a covariate shows that the June 2015 temperature values fit well in the extrapolated empirical temperature/drought lines. The high temperature anomalies in WA and OR are thus to be expected, given the dry soil moisture conditions and that those regions are in the transition from a wet to a dry regime. CA is already in the dry regime and therefore the necessity of taking soil moisture into account is of lower importance.

Deciphering the desiccation trend of the South Asian monsoon hydroclimate in a warming world

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krishnan, R.; Sabin, T. P.; Vellore, R.; Mujumdar, M.; Sanjay, J.; Goswami, B. N.; Hourdin, F.; Dufresne, J.-L.; Terray, P.

2016-08-01

Rising propensity of precipitation extremes and concomitant decline of summer-monsoon rains are amongst the most distinctive hydroclimatic signals that have emerged over South Asia since 1950s. A clear understanding of the underlying causes driving these monsoon hydroclimatic signals has remained elusive. Using a state-of-the-art global climate model with high-resolution zooming over South Asia, we demonstrate that a juxtaposition of regional land-use changes, anthropogenic-aerosol forcing and the rapid warming signal of the equatorial Indian Ocean is crucial to produce the observed monsoon weakening in recent decades. Our findings also show that this monsoonal weakening significantly enhances occurrence of localized intense precipitation events, as compared to the global-warming response. A 21st century climate projection using the same high-resolution model indicates persistent decrease of monsoonal rains and prolongation of soil drying. Critical value-additions from this study include (1) realistic simulation of the mean and long-term historical trends in the Indian monsoon rainfall (2) robust attributions of changes in moderate and heavy precipitation events over Central India (3) a 21st century projection of drying trend of the South Asian monsoon. The present findings have profound bearing on the regional water-security, which is already under severe hydrological-stress.

Late Quaternary environmental dynamics in the Atacama Desert reconstructed from rodent midden pollen records

USGS Publications Warehouse

de Porras, M.E.; Maldonado, A.; De Pol-Holz, R.; Latorre, C.; Betancourt, Julio L.

2017-01-01

In the past two decades, much has been learned about the late Quaternary climate history of the Atacama Desert with some details still unclear about the seasonality, timing and extent of wet and dry phases. Modern climate studies reveal that, far from exhibiting a unique pattern, seasonal precipitation originates from many sources and mechanisms. For the last 16 ka, we attempt to sort out these complexities in pollen records from four fossil rodent midden series spanning 22°–25°S in northern Chile. Widespread wet conditions prevailed during the late Pleistocene and early Holocene, particularly between 13 and 9 ka, evidenced by <400 m lowering of pollen zones (plant communities) compared to today. Regional differences in the timing and magnitude of this displacement may be related to the prevailing source (tropical/extra‐tropical) or mode (NNW/SE) of tropical precipitation through time. Wet conditions persisted well into the early Holocene, lasting ∼1–1.5 ka longer than previously suggested. The pollen record suggests extreme drying ∼8 ka, possibly associated with a northward shift of the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone, tracking minimum insolation values at subtropical latitudes during the austral summer. The establishment of conditions similar to today happened ∼4 ka. 

Towards bridging the gap between climate change projections and maize producers in South Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Landman, Willem A.; Engelbrecht, Francois; Hewitson, Bruce; Malherbe, Johan; van der Merwe, Jacobus

2018-05-01

Multi-decadal regional projections of future climate change are introduced into a linear statistical model in order to produce an ensemble of austral mid-summer maximum temperature simulations for southern Africa. The statistical model uses atmospheric thickness fields from a high-resolution (0.5° × 0.5°) reanalysis-forced simulation as predictors in order to develop a linear recalibration model which represents the relationship between atmospheric thickness fields and gridded maximum temperatures across the region. The regional climate model, the conformal-cubic atmospheric model (CCAM), projects maximum temperatures increases over southern Africa to be in the order of 4 °C under low mitigation towards the end of the century or even higher. The statistical recalibration model is able to replicate these increasing temperatures, and the atmospheric thickness-maximum temperature relationship is shown to be stable under future climate conditions. Since dry land crop yields are not explicitly simulated by climate models but are sensitive to maximum temperature extremes, the effect of projected maximum temperature change on dry land crops of the Witbank maize production district of South Africa, assuming other factors remain unchanged, is then assessed by employing a statistical approach similar to the one used for maximum temperature projections.

Increasing precipitation volatility in twenty-first-century California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Swain, Daniel L.; Langenbrunner, Baird; Neelin, J. David; Hall, Alex

2018-05-01

Mediterranean climate regimes are particularly susceptible to rapid shifts between drought and flood—of which, California's rapid transition from record multi-year dryness between 2012 and 2016 to extreme wetness during the 2016-2017 winter provides a dramatic example. Projected future changes in such dry-to-wet events, however, remain inadequately quantified, which we investigate here using the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble of climate model simulations. Anthropogenic forcing is found to yield large twenty-first-century increases in the frequency of wet extremes, including a more than threefold increase in sub-seasonal events comparable to California's `Great Flood of 1862'. Smaller but statistically robust increases in dry extremes are also apparent. As a consequence, a 25% to 100% increase in extreme dry-to-wet precipitation events is projected, despite only modest changes in mean precipitation. Such hydrological cycle intensification would seriously challenge California's existing water storage, conveyance and flood control infrastructure.

Refuge habitats for fishes during seasonal drying in an intermittent stream: movement, survival and abundance of three minnow species

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hodges, S.W.; Magoulick, Daniel D.

2011-01-01

Drought and summer drying can be important disturbance events in many small streams leading to intermittent or isolated habitats. We examined what habitats act as refuges for fishes during summer drying, hypothesizing that pools would act as refuge habitats. We predicted that during drying fish would show directional movement into pools from riffle habitats, survival rates would be greater in pools than in riffles, and fish abundance would increase in pool habitats. We examined movement, survival and abundance of three minnow species, bigeye shiner (Notropis boops), highland stoneroller (Campostoma spadiceum) and creek chub (Semotilus atromaculatus), during seasonal stream drying in an Ozark stream using a closed robust multi-strata mark-recapture sampling. Population parameters were estimated using plausible models within program MARK, where a priori models are ranked using Akaike's Information Criterion. Creek chub showed directional movement into pools and increased survival and abundance in pools during drying. Highland stonerollers showed strong directional movement into pools and abundance increased in pools during drying, but survival rates were not significantly greater in pools than riffles. Bigeye shiners showed high movement rates during drying, but the movement was non-directional, and survival rates were greater in riffles than pools. Therefore, creek chub supported our hypothesis and pools appear to act as refuge habitats for this species, whereas highland stonerollers partly supported the hypothesis and bigeye shiners did not support the pool refuge hypothesis. Refuge habitats during drying are species dependent. An urgent need exists to further understand refuge habitats in streams given projected changes in climate and continued alteration of hydrological regimes.

75 FR 8044 - Summer Undergraduate Research Program Extension of Due Date for Proposals

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-02-23

...: Due to extreme weather conditions in the Mid-Atlantic United States, NIST is extending the deadline.... Eastern Time, Tuesday, February 16, 2010. Due to extreme weather conditions and associated power outages...

Pre-Monsoon Drought and Heat Waves in India

NASA Image and Video Library

2015-09-12

In June 2015, news organizations around the world reported on a deadly heat wave in India that killed more than 2,300 people. Prior to the arrival of the summer monsoon in India, weather conditions had been extremely hot and dry. Such conditions can lead to economic and agricultural disaster, human suffering and loss of life. NASA satellite sensors are allowing scientists to characterize pre-monsoon droughts and heat waves and postulate their scientific cause. This figure shows the longitude-time variations, averaged between 21 and 22 degrees North, across the middle of the India subcontinent from mid-April to mid-June. Longitude from the Arabian Sea to the Bay of Bengal is represented on the horizontal axis; while the vertical axis shows the timeframe. Rainfall is shown on the left, soil moisture is in the center, and surface air temperature is on the right. For both years (2012 and 2015), the summer monsoon begins in June, with sharp rises in rainfall and soil moisture, and a sharp drop in air temperature. The hottest and driest weeks occurred just before the summer monsoon onsets. Similar dry and hot periods, varying from one to a few weeks, were observed in 2013 and 2014. Soil moisture as an indication of drought as measured by NASA's Aquarius mission was first available in 2012. Rainfall data are from NASA's Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), and surface air temperature is from NASA's Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) instrument on NASA's Aqua satellite. The TRMM and Aquarius missions ended in April 2015, before the drought and heat waves. Their data were replaced by those presently available from NASA's Soil Moisture Active Passive Mission (SMAP) and Global Precipitation Mission (GPM) to show the drought and heatwave in 2015. Scientists from NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, California, have shown that during the summer monsoon season, moisture is transported into the India Subcontinent from the Arabian Sea and out to the Bay of Bengal. The difference between moisture input from the west and output to the east is deposited as rain over land. The pre-monsoon drought and heat waves coincide with the short period when moisture is advected out to the Bay of Bengal ahead of input from the Arabian Sea. The onset of southwest monsoon winds begins in the Bay of Bengal and sucks moisture out from the subcontinent earlier than the onset in the Arabian Sea. http://photojournal.jpl.nasa.gov/catalog/PIA19939

The role of the subtropical North Atlantic water cycle in recent US extreme precipitation events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Laifang; Schmitt, Raymond W.; Ummenhofer, Caroline C.

2018-02-01

The role of the oceanic water cycle in the record-breaking 2015 warm-season precipitation in the US is analyzed. The extreme precipitation started in the Southern US in the spring and propagated northward to the Midwest and the Great Lakes in the summer of 2015. This seasonal evolution of precipitation anomalies represents a typical mode of variability of US warm-season precipitation. Analysis of the atmospheric moisture flux suggests that such a rainfall mode is associated with moisture export from the subtropical North Atlantic. In the spring, excessive precipitation in the Southern US is attributable to increased moisture flux from the northwestern portion of the subtropical North Atlantic. The North Atlantic moisture flux interacts with local soil moisture which enables the US Midwest to draw more moisture from the Gulf of Mexico in the summer. Further analysis shows that the relationship between the rainfall mode and the North Atlantic water cycle has become more significant in recent decades, indicating an increased likelihood of extremes like the 2015 case. Indeed, two record-high warm-season precipitation events, the 1993 and 2008 cases, both occurred in the more recent decades of the 66 year analysis period. The export of water from the North Atlantic leaves a marked surface salinity signature. The salinity signature appeared in the spring preceding all three extreme precipitation events analyzed in this study, i.e. a saltier-than-normal subtropical North Atlantic in spring followed by extreme Midwest precipitation in summer. Compared to the various sea surface temperature anomaly patterns among the 1993, 2008, and 2015 cases, the spatial distribution of salinity anomalies was much more consistent during these extreme flood years. Thus, our study suggests that preseason salinity patterns can be used for improved seasonal prediction of extreme precipitation in the Midwest.

Vulnerability of crops and native grasses to summer drying in the U.S. Southern Great Plains

DOE PAGES

Raz-Yaseef, Naama; Billesbach, Dave P.; Fischer, Marc L.; ...

2015-08-31

The Southern Great Plains are characterized by a fine-scale mixture of different land-cover types, predominantly winter-wheat and grazed pasture, with relatively small areas of other crops, native prairie, and switchgrass. Recent droughts and predictions of increased drought in the Southern Great Plains, especially during the summer months, raise concern for these ecosystems. We measured ecosystem carbon and water fluxes with eddy-covariance systems over cultivated cropland for 10 years, and over lightly grazed prairie and new switchgrass fields for 2 years each. Growing-season precipitation showed the strongest control over net carbon uptake for all ecosystems, but with a variable effect: grassesmore » (prairie and switchgrass) needed at least 350 mm of precipitation during the growing season to become net carbon sinks, while crops needed only 100 mm. In summer, high temperatures enhanced evaporation and led to higher likelihood of dry soil conditions. Therefore, summer-growing native prairie species and switchgrass experienced more seasonal droughts than spring-growing crops. For wheat, the net reduction in carbon uptake resulted mostly from a decrease in gross primary production rather than an increase in respiration. Flux measurements suggested that management practices for crops were effective in suppressing evapotranspiration and decomposition (by harvesting and removing secondary growth), and in increasing carbon uptake (by fertilizing and conserving summer soil water). In light of future projections for wetter springs and drier and warmer summers in the Southern Great Plains, our study indicates an increased vulnerability in native ecosystems and summer crops over time.« less

Ecotypic variation of summer dormancy relaxation associated with rainfall gradient in the geophytic grass Poa bulbosa

PubMed Central

Ofir, Micha; Kigel, Jaime

2010-01-01

Background and Aims Summer dormancy is an adaptive trait in geophytes inhabiting regions with a Mediterranean climate, allowing their survival through the hot and dry summers. Summer dormancy in Poa bulbosa is induced by increasing day-length and temperature and decreasing water availability during spring. Populations from arid habitats became dormant earlier than those from mesic habitats. Relaxation of dormancy was promoted by the hot, dry summer conditions. Here we test the hypothesis that dormancy relaxation is also delayed in ecotypes of P. bulbosa inhabiting arid regions, as a cautious strategy related to the greater unpredictability of autumn rains associated with decreasing precipitation. Methods Ecotypes collected across a precipitation gradient (100–1200 mm year−1) in the Mediterranean climate region were grown under similar conditions in a net-house in Israel. Differences among ecotypes in dormancy induction and dormancy relaxation were determined by measuring time to dormancy onset in spring, and time to sprouting after the first effective rain in autumn. Seasonal and ecotype variation in dormancy relaxation were assessed by measuring time to sprouting initiation, rate of sprouting and maximal sprouting of resting dry bulbs sampled in the net-house during late spring, and mid- and late summer, and planted in a wet substrate at temperatures promoting (10 °C) or limiting (20 °C) sprouting. Key Results Earlier dormancy in the spring and delayed sprouting in autumn were correlated with decreasing mean annual rainfall at the site of ecotype origin. Seasonal and ecotype differences in dormancy relaxation were expressed in bulbs planted at 20 °C. During the summer, time to sprouting decreased while rate of sprouting and maximal sprouting increased, indicating dormancy relaxation. Ecotypes from more arid sites across the rainfall gradient showed delayed onset of sprouting and lower maximal sprouting, but did not differ in rate of sprouting. Planting at 10 °C promoted sprouting and cancelled differences among ecotypes in dormancy relaxation. Conclusions Both the induction and the relaxation of summer dormancy in P. bulbosa are correlated with mean annual precipitation at the site of population origin. Ecotypes from arid habitats have earlier dormancy induction and delayed dormancy relaxation, compared with those from mesic habitats. PMID:20156924

Assessment of the uncertainty in future projection for summer climate extremes over the East Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, Changyong; Min, Seung-Ki; Cha, Dong-Hyun

2017-04-01

Future projections of climate extremes in regional and local scales are essential information needed for better adapting to climate changes. However, future projections hold larger uncertainty factors arising from internal and external processes which reduce the projection confidence. Using CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) multi-model simulations, we assess uncertainties in future projections of the East Asian temperature and precipitation extremes focusing on summer. In examining future projection, summer mean and extreme projections of the East Asian temperature and precipitation would be larger as time. Moreover, uncertainty cascades represent wider scenario difference and inter-model ranges with increasing time. A positive mean-extreme relation is found in projections for both temperature and precipitation. For the assessment of uncertainty factors for these projections, dominant uncertainty factors from temperature and precipitation change as time. For uncertainty of mean and extreme temperature, contributions of internal variability and model uncertainty declines after mid-21st century while role of scenario uncertainty grows rapidly. For uncertainty of mean precipitation projections, internal variability is more important than the scenario uncertainty. Unlike mean precipitation, extreme precipitation shows that the scenario uncertainty is expected to be a dominant factor in 2090s. The model uncertainty holds as an important factor for both mean and extreme precipitation until late 21st century. The spatial changes for the uncertainty factors of mean and extreme projections generally are expressed according to temporal changes of the fraction of total variance from uncertainty factors in many grids of the East Asia. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The research was supported by the Korea Meteorological Administration Research and Development program under grant KMIPA 2015-2083 and the National Research Foundation of Korea Grant funded by the Ministry of Science, ICT and Future Planning of Korea (NRF-2016M3C4A7952637) for its support and assistant in completion of the study.

Dry deposition and soil-air gas exchange of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) in an industrial area.

PubMed

Bozlaker, Ayse; Odabasi, Mustafa; Muezzinoglu, Aysen

2008-12-01

Ambient air and dry deposition, and soil samples were collected at the Aliaga industrial site in Izmir, Turkey. Atmospheric total (particle+gas) Sigma(41)-PCB concentrations were higher in summer (3370+/-1617 pg m(-3), average+SD) than in winter (1164+/-618 pg m(-3)), probably due to increased volatilization with temperature. Average particulate Sigma(41)-PCBs dry deposition fluxes were 349+/-183 and 469+/-328 ng m(-2) day(-1) in summer and winter, respectively. Overall average particulate deposition velocity was 5.5+/-3.5 cm s(-1). The spatial distribution of Sigma(41)-PCB soil concentrations (n=48) showed that the iron-steel plants, ship dismantling facilities, refinery and petrochemicals complex are the major sources in the area. Calculated air-soil exchange fluxes indicated that the contaminated soil is a secondary source to the atmosphere for lighter PCBs and as a sink for heavier ones. Comparable magnitude of gas exchange and dry particle deposition fluxes indicated that both mechanisms are equally important for PCB movement between air and soil in Aliaga.

Compound summer temperature and precipitation extremes over central Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sedlmeier, Katrin; Feldmann, H.; Schädler, G.

2018-02-01

Reliable knowledge of the near-future climate change signal of extremes is important for adaptation and mitigation strategies. Especially compound extremes, like heat and drought occurring simultaneously, may have a greater impact on society than their univariate counterparts and have recently become an active field of study. In this paper, we use a 12-member ensemble of high-resolution (7 km) regional climate simulations with the regional climate model COSMO-CLM over central Europe to analyze the climate change signal and its uncertainty for compound heat and drought extremes in summer by two different measures: one describing absolute (i.e., number of exceedances of absolute thresholds like hot days), the other relative (i.e., number of exceedances of time series intrinsic thresholds) compound extreme events. Changes are assessed between a reference period (1971-2000) and a projection period (2021-2050). Our findings show an increase in the number of absolute compound events for the whole investigation area. The change signal of relative extremes is more region-dependent, but there is a strong signal change in the southern and eastern parts of Germany and the neighboring countries. Especially the Czech Republic shows strong change in absolute and relative extreme events.

Relation of water level and fish availability to wood stork reproduction in the southern Everglades, Florida

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kushlan, James A.; Ogden, John C.; Higer, Aaron L.

1975-01-01

The wood stork is a species of colonial wading bird in the Everglades that is most sensitive to changes in the availability of food. Previous studies have shown that the initiation and success of wood stork nesting depends on high densities of fish concentrated in ponds and other catchment basins during the dry season. The extreme dependence of the wood stork on the cyclic hydrologic regime of the southern Florida wetlands makes it an indicator of the well-being and ecological stability of the Everglades. The wood stork has declined in numbers over the last 25 years. One reason for the decline in wood stork population was the change in the hydrologic regimen of the Everglades which affected the feeding habitat and the food production. The fish on which the wood stork feeds increase in density during the dry season as water levels fall. In the Everglades marsh, densities were highest in front of the drying edge of surface water at a depth of about 0.3 m. Dry-season densities were greatest when a drought occurred the previous year. Historically wood stork nesting success was associated with high summer water levels, high rates of surface-water discharge and high rates of drying. Before the closure of the south side of Conservation Area 3 in 1962, years of successful and unsuccessful nesting were characterized by different patterns of drying. These patterns changed after 1962 and generally the predictability of successful nesting breaks down thereafter. Only two nesting years after 1962 were successful and in only one of these was the drying rate similar to years of successful nesting before 1962. Two other potentially successful years failed after 1962. This suggests that further changes in the hydrobiological relations occurred within the Everglades after 1962. Lack of successful nesting after 1962 can be attributed in large part to late colony formation and the interruption of nesting by winter rainfall. In this period (1962-72), colonies formed earlier in years of high early drying rates than in years of low early drying rates. Delay of colony formation is ultimately the result of inability to attain a suitable nutritional state since food supply is the primary factor in the initiation of nesting. Many of the complex food associations of the wood stork remain to be explained.

The seasonal cycle of the Lazarev Sea macrozooplankton community and a potential shift to top-down trophic control in winter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hunt, B. P. V.; Pakhomov, E. A.; Siegel, V.; Strass, V.; Cisewski, B.; Bathmann, U.

2011-07-01

Between 2004 and 2008, during the German Southern Ocean GLOBEC programme, four large scale bio-oceanographic surveys were conducted in the Lazarev Sea for the Lazarev Sea Krill Survey (LAKRIS). These surveys were completed in Autumn (April-May) 2004, Summer (December-January) 2005/06, Winter (July-August) 2006, and Summer (December-January) 2007/08. On each occasion macrozooplankton communities were sampled by RMT-8 in the upper 200 m of the water column. Chlorophyll a biomass averaged ˜1.5 mg m -3 (max=8.2 mg m -3) in Summer 05/06, 0.88 mg m -3 (max=2.77 mg m -3) in Summer 07/08, 0.24 mg m -3 (max=0.73 mg m -3) in Autumn 04, and 0.042 mg m -3 (max=0.1 mg m -3) in Winter 06. Macrozooplankton densities did not differ significantly between seasons and were 53, 68, 59, and 48 ind. 1000 m -3 in Summer 05/06, Summer 07/08, Autumn, and Winter, respectively. Total macrozooplankton biomass, however, increased significantly from summer (0.88 and 0.97 g dry weight 1000 m -3 in Summer 05/06 and Summer 07/08, respectively) to Autumn 04 (2.66 g dry weight 1000 m -3) and Winter 06 levels (1.75 g dry weight 1000 m -3). This biomass increase was due to both an increased occurrence of Euphausia superba and fish and a shift to a larger size structure in the latter group. Siphonophores (predominantly Diphyes antarctica), chaetognaths (predominantly Eukrohnia hamata and Sagitta gazellae) and euphausiids (predominantly Thysanoessa macrura and E. superba) contributed >80% to total densities in all four surveys. However, a strong and distinctive change in assemblage structure was observed between seasons. Key amongst these was a shift within the euphausiids from a dominance of T. macrura in summer to that of E. superba in autumn and winter; a winter decrease in E. hamata; an autumn and winter decrease in Tomopteris sp.; and a winter increase in the abundance of the grazers Clio pyramidata sulcata and Ihlea racovitzai, hyperiids, and the myctophid fish Electrona antarctica. Carnivorous macrozooplankton formed the major trophic group in all seasons, contributing 44-60% to total macrozooplankton abundance and 39-58% to total macrozooplankton biomass in all four surveys. The combined predation pressure of carnivores and potential increased winter carnivory by E. superba and other omnivorous species, was expected to be high. In view of low winter primary production, we suggest that the epipelagic food web of the Lazarev Sea shifted from being bottom-up controlled in summer to top-down controlled in winter.

Recent and future extreme precipitation over Ukraine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vyshkvarkova, Olena; Voskresenskaya, Elena

2014-05-01

The aim of study is to analyze the parameters of precipitation extremes and inequality over Ukraine in recent climate epoch and their possible changes in the future. Data of observations from 28 hydrometeorological stations over Ukraine and output of GFDL-CM3 model (CMIP5) for XXI century were used in the study. The methods of concentration index (J. Martin-Vide, 2004) for the study of precipitation inequality while the extreme precipitation indices recommended by the ETCCDI - for the frequency of events. Results. Precipitation inequality on the annual and seasonal scales was studied using estimated CI series for 1951-2005. It was found that annual CI ranges vary from 0.58 to 0.64. They increase southward from the north-west (forest zone) and the north-east (forest steppe zone) of Ukraine. CI maxima are located in the coastal regions of the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov. Annual CI spatial distribution indicates that the contribution of extreme precipitation into annual totals is most significant at the boundary zone between steppe and marine regions. At the same time precipitation pattern at the foothill of Carpathian Mountains is more homogenous. The CI minima (0.54) are typical for the winter season in foothill of Ukrainian Carpathians. The CI maxima reach 0.71 in spring at the steppe zone closed to the Black Sea coast. It should be noted that the greatest ranges of CI maximum and CI minimum deviation are typical for spring. It is associated with patterns of cyclone trajectories in that season. The most territory is characterized by tendency to decrease the contribution of extreme precipitation into the total amount (CI linear trends are predominantly negative in all seasons). Decadal and interdecadal variability of precipitation inequality associated with global processes in ocean-atmosphere system are also studied. It was shown that precipitation inequality over Ukraine on 10 - 15 % stronger in negative phase of Pacific Decadal Oscillation and in positive phase of Atlantic multidecadal oscillation. Typical space distribution of extreme precipitation (R95p) for seasons and for year is characterized by their southward intensity increasing from North-East and North-West. Summer precipitation extremes are characterized by quite homogeneous distribution. Linear trends of indices of precipitation extremes (R95p, R20mm and R30mm) for period 1951 - 2005 are mainly negative in winter season and positive in summer. To analyze the possible changes of extreme precipitation it was calculated the R95p index for recent climate period (1986 - 2005) and for periods 2046 - 2065 and 2081 - 2100 (as it was recommended by IPCC). Its difference between 1986 - 2005 and 2046 - 2065 shows that intensity of extreme precipitation will decrease in the north-east and increase in the south-west regions, especially in summer season. Magnitude of intensity changes of extreme precipitation will be ± 4 - 5 mm/day. The intensity changes of extreme precipitation since the recent climate period till the end of the century will be some less (2 - 3 mm/day) than in previous period, except summer months. Number of cases with precipitation extremes will be increase in southern regions of Ukraine in summer seasons. In other seasons it will be at the recent climate level.

Ecohydrology and biogeochemistry of seasonally-dry ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, X.; Porporato, A. M.

2010-12-01

The composition and the dynamic in various types of seasonally dry ecosystems are largely determined by rainfall seasonality and distribution. The intermittency of rainfall in these ecosystems has played a dominant role in the life cycle of native plants such that phenological events such as growth or reproduction have oftentimes become synchronized with the onset of the dry or the wet season. Characteristic amongst such types of ecosystems are the tropical dry and Mediterranean ecosystems, both of which receive similar amount of precipitation yet are markedly distinct in their synchronization of rainfall fluctuations and temperature. Seasonally dry ecosystems cover more than 16 million square kilometers in the tropics, with short but intense wet seasons followed by long dry seasons and elevated temperature throughout the year. Native vegetation grows during the wet season and adopts dormancy or seasonal deciduousness to cope with the dry season. In the Mediterranean climates, precipitations and temperature are out of phase, with wet temperate winters and hot dry summers. Dimorphic root systems are prevalent, where deep rooted plants exploit the winter recharge while the shallow rooted species take advantage of the infrequent summer rains. Using a stochastic soil moisture model we analyze how temporal shifts, or the lack thereof, in temperature and precipitation patterns affect the development of water stress during the dry season and its feedbacks on soil-plant biogeochemistry. We especially focus on the role of differences in temperature and seasonal potential evapotranspiration between tropical dry and Mediterranean climates. We also compare irrigation needs and the effects of projected climatic conditions in those regions. Understanding how plants adopt different water use strategies in the context of shifted climatic patterns will shed light on how these regions of high biodiversity may cope with rapidly-changing climatic conditions.

Impact of the heatwave in 2003 on the summer CH4 and N2O budget of a spruce forest ecosystem: A four-year comparison

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lamers, M.; Fiedler, S.; Jungkunst, H. F.; Stahr, K.; Streck, T.

2009-04-01

Both CH4 and N2O reduction and oxidation are highly sensitive to variation in soil moisture. Significant changes of net CH4 and total N2O fluxes from soils can therefore be expected to accompany redistribution for precipitation in the course of climate change where more extreme events are predicted for the future. The extreme summer drought in 2003 offered the unique opportunity to study the impact of such events on the emission of greenhouse gases, such as methane or nitrous oxide, under field conditions. The main objective of the present study was to evaluate the impact of the summer drought in 2003 on the net methane and nitrous oxide budget of a spruce forest ecosystem (South-West Germany) with large variation in soil drainage. During the summers of 2000-2004 we measured net CH4 and N2O fluxes (bi)-weekly using the closed-chamber technique for six different soil types ranging from well-aerated Cambisols to poorly drained Gleysols and a wet Histosol. With regard to CH4 the extreme summer draught (1) did not elevate net CH4-sink function of soils, but (2) highly reduced net CH4-source strength and (3) reversed the net CH4 source of the investigated catchment into a sink. In all four summers investigated, net ecosystem exchange of CH4 was found only in the hydromorphic soils but not in the dominant well-aerated soils. This highlighted the key role of hydromorphic soils for the investigated pedodiverse system. With regard to N2O the summer draught in 2003 significantly reduced N2O emissions at least for the Humic Gleysol and the Sapric Histosol and hence markedly reduced the net N2O source strength of the investigated ecosystem.

Severe dry winter affects plant phenology and carbon balance of a cork oak woodland understorey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Correia, A. C.; Costa-e-Silva, F.; Dubbert, M.; Piayda, A.; Pereira, J. S.

2016-10-01

Mediterranean climates are prone to a great variation in yearly precipitation. The effects on ecosystem will depend on the severity and timing of droughts. In this study we questioned how an extreme dry winter affects the carbon flux in the understorey of a cork oak woodland? What is the seasonal contribution of understorey vegetation to ecosystem productivity? We used closed-system portable chambers to measure CO2 exchange of the dominant shrub species (Cistus salviifolius, Cistus crispus and Ulex airensis), of the herbaceous layer and on bare soil in a cork oak woodland in central Portugal during the dry winter year of 2012. Shoot growth, leaf shedding, flower and fruit setting, above and belowground plant biomass were measured as well as seasonal leaf water potential. Eddy-covariance and micrometeorological data together with CO2 exchange measurements were used to access the understorey species contribution to ecosystem gross primary productivity (GPP). The herbaceous layer productivity was severely affected by the dry winter, with half of the yearly maximum aboveground biomass in comparison with the 6 years site average. The semi-deciduous and evergreen shrubs showed desynchronized phenophases and lagged carbon uptake maxima. Whereas shallow-root shrubs exhibited opportunistic characteristics in exploiting the understorey light and water resources, deep rooted shrubs showed better water status but considerably lower assimilation rates. The contribution of understorey vegetation to ecosystem GPP was lower during summer with 14% and maximum during late spring, concomitantly with the lowest tree productivity due to tree canopy renewal. The herbaceous vegetation contribution to ecosystem GPP never exceeded 6% during this dry year stressing its sensitivity to winter and spring precipitation. Although shrubs are more resilient to precipitation variability when compared with the herbaceous vegetation, the contribution of the understorey vegetation to ecosystem GPP can be quite variable and will ultimately depend of tree density and canopy cover.

Relative Influence of Initial Surface and Atmospheric Conditions on Seasonal Water and Energy Balances

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Oglesby, Robert J.; Marshall, Susan; Roads, John O.; Robertson, Franklin R.; Goodman, H. Michael (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

We constructed and analyzed wet and dry soil moisture composites for the mid-latitude GCIP region of the central US using long climate model simulations made with the NCAR CCM3 and reanalysis products from NCEP. Using the diagnostic composites as a guide, we have completed a series of predictability experiments in which we imposed soil water initial conditions in CCM3 for the GCIP region for June 1 from anomalously wet and dry years, with atmospheric initial conditions taken from June 1 of a year with 'near-normal' soil water, and initial soil water from the near-normal year and atmospheric initial conditions from the wet and dry years. Preliminary results indicate that the initial state of the atmosphere is more important than the initial state of soil water determining the subsequent late spring and summer evolution of sod water over the GCIP region. Surprisingly, neither the composites or the predictability experiments yielded a strong influence of soil moisture on the atmosphere. To explore this further, we have made runs with extreme dry soil moisture initial anomalies imposed over the GCIP region (the soil close to being completely dry). These runs did yield a very strong effect on the atmosphere that persisted for at least three months. We conclude that the magnitude of the initial soil moisture anomaly is crucial, at least in CCM3, and are currently investigating whether a threshold exists, below which little impact is seen. In a complementary study, we compared the impact of the initial condition of snow cover versus the initial atmospheric state over the western US (corresponding to the westward extension of the GAPP program follow-on to GCIP). In this case, the initial prescription of snow cover is far more important than the initial atmospheric state in determining the subsequent evolution of snow cover. We are currently working to understand the very different soil water and snow cover results.

Effects of sawdust bedding dry matter on lying behavior of dairy cows: a dose-dependent response.

PubMed

Reich, L J; Weary, D M; Veira, D M; von Keyserlingk, M A G

2010-04-01

The objective was to determine the effect of sawdust bedding dry matter on the lying behavior of Holstein cows. Dry matter (DM) was varied systematically over 5 treatment levels to test how cows respond to damp bedding. This experiment was repeated during summer and winter to test if the effects of damp bedding varied with season. The 5 bedding treatments averaged (+/-SD) 89.8+/-3.7, 74.2+/-6.4, 62.2+/-6.3, 43.9+/-4.0, and 34.7+/-3.8% DM. Over the course of the trial, minimum and maximum temperatures in the barn were 2.6+/-2.0 and 6.8+/-2.2 degrees C in the winter and 13.3+/-2.5 and 22.6+/-4.1 degrees C in the summer. In both seasons, 5 groups of 3 nonlactating cows were housed in free stalls bedded with sawdust. Following a 5-d acclimation period on dry bedding, groups were exposed to the 5 bedding treatments in a 5 x 5 Latin square. Each treatment lasted 4 d, followed by 1 d when the cows were provided with dry bedding. Stall usage was assessed by 24-h video scanned at 5-min intervals. Responses were analyzed within group (n=5) as the observational unit. Bedding DM affected lying time, averaging 10.4+/-0.4 h/d on the wettest treatment and increasing to 11.5+/-0.4 h/d on the driest bedding. Lying time varied with season, averaging 12.1+/-0.4 h/d across treatments during the winter and 9.9+/-0.6 h/d during the summer, but season and bedding DM did not interact. These results indicate that access to dry bedding is important for dairy cows. Copyright (c) 2010 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Microbial ecology of extreme environments: Antarctic yeasts and growth in substrate-limited habitats

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vishniac, H. S.

1985-01-01

The high, dry valleys of the Ross Desert of Antarctic, characterized by extremely low temperatures, aridity and a depauperate biota, are used as an analog of the postulated extreme climates of other planetary bodies of the Solar System to test the hypothesis that if life could be supported by Ross, it might be possible where similar conditions prevail. The previously considered sterility of the Ross Desert soil ecosystem has yielded up an indigenous yeast, Cryptoccus vishniacci, which is able to resist the extremes of cold, wet and dry freezing, and long arid periods, while making minimal nutritional demands on the soil.

Climate Risk Management in the Anthropocene: From Basic Science to Decisionmaking and Back.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

King, A.; Karoly, D. J.

2014-12-01

In this talk I will discuss studies our group has conducted to investigate the role of anthropogenic climate change in the heavy rains of 2010-2012 and the heat and drought of 2013. Using a range of methodologies based on coupled climate models from the CMIP5 archive and very large atmosphere-only ensembles from the Weather@Home Australia-New Zealand ensemble we have found increases in the likelihood of hot extremes, such as the summer of 2012/13 and individual record-breaking hot days within that summer. In contrast, studies of the precipitation extremes that occurred in the summer of 2011/12 found limited evidence for a substantial anthropogenic role in these events. I will also present briefly on avenues of research we are currently pursuing in the Australian community. These include investigating whether anthropogenic climate change has altered the likelihood of weather associated with bushfires and the implementation of perturbed physics in the Weather@Home ensemble to allow us to study the potential role of human-induced climate change on extreme rainfall events.

Projected changes in climate extremes over Qatar and the Arabian Gulf region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kundeti, K.; Kanikicharla, K. K.; Al sulaiti, M.; Khulaifi, M.; Alboinin, N.; Kito, A.

2015-12-01

The climate of the State of Qatar and the adjacent region is dominated by subtropical dry, hot desert climate with low annual rainfall, very high temperatures in summer and a big difference between maximum and minimum temperatures, especially in the inland areas. The coastal areas are influenced by the Arabian Gulf, and have lower maximum, but higher minimum temperatures and a higher moisture percentage in the air. The global warming can have profound impact on the mean climate as well as extreme weather events over the Arabian Peninsula that may affect both natural and human systems significantly. Therefore, it is important to assess the future changes in the seasonal/annual mean of temperature and precipitation and also the extremes in temperature and wind events for a country like Qatar. This study assesses the performance of the Coupled Model Inter comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations in present and develops future climate scenarios. The changes in climate extremes are assessed for three future periods 2016-2035, 2046-2065 and 2080-2099 with respect to 1986-2005 (base line) under two RCPs (Representative Concentrate Pathways) - RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. We analyzed the projected changes in temperature and precipitation extremes using several indices including those that capture heat stress. The observations show an increase in warm extremes over many parts in this region that are generally well captured by the models. The results indicate a significant change in frequency and intensity of both temperature and precipitation extremes over many parts of this region which may have serious implications on human health, water resources and the onshore/offshore infrastructure in this region. Data from a high-resolution (20km) AGCM simulation from Meteorological Research Institute of Japan Meteorological Agency for the present (1979-2003) and a future time slice (2075-2099) corresponding to RCP8.5 have also been utilized to assess the impact of climate change on regional climate extremes as well. The scenarios generated with the high-resolution model simulation were compared with the coarse resolution CMIP5 model scenarios to identify region specific features that might be better resolved in the former simulation.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dean, T.A.; Bellis, V.J.

Epifaunal species were collected at 1-, 3-, and 12-month intervals from the Pamlico River estuary. Three epifaunal communities were recognized by characteristic species assemblages. The permanently mesohaline mouth was dominated by Garveia cerulea (hydroid), Balanus improvisus (barnacle), Victorella pavida and Membranipora tenuis (bryozoans), Diadumene leucolena (anemone), Ercolania vanellus (nudibranch), Corophium lacustre (amphipod), and Polydora websteri and Nereis succinea (polychaetes). Upriver, in oligohaline portions, dominants were Cordylophora caspia (hydroid), Balanus subalbidus and Balanus improvisus (barnacles), Victorella pavida (bryozoan), and Polydora websteri (polychaete). Between these extremes, the intermediate zone was dominated by representatives of the extremes: Balanus improvisus, Cordylophora caspia, Victorella pavida,more » Corophium lacustre (amphipod), and Polydora websteri. Demarcation of communities corresponded to salinity patterns. Within each community wide seasonal variation was demonstrated by species composition, relative abundance, and dry weight. Epifauna were most abundant in warm months (May to October) and relatively sparse the rest of the year. Seasonal expression of community structure was attributed to periodicity in larval release and settlement and was thus initiated and directed by the annual pattern of water temperature, dissolved oxygen, salinity, and interspecific competition. The sequence of epifaunal dominants began with barnacles and hydroids in the spring, a bryozoan in summer, and a smaller set of barnacles with associated tubeworms in fall. Community succession began with bacteria and protozoans followed by sessile epifauna and finally motile epifaunal associates.« less

Variation in nutritional quality of plants for deer in relation to sunny versus shady environments

Treesearch

Thomas A. Hanley; Jeffrey C. Barnard

2014-01-01

Variation in nutritional quality of natural forages for black-tailed deer (Odocoileus hemionus) was studied in summer and winter in southeast Alaska. Freeze-dried samples of 17 summer forages collected in early July and 10 winter forages collected in February from three replicate sites each of shady forest understory and open, sunny habitat were...

Foliar uptake of fog in the coast redwood ecosystem: a novel drought-alleviation strategy shared by most redwood forest plants

Treesearch

Emily Limm; Kevin Simonin; Tod Dawson

2012-01-01

Fog inundates the coast redwood forests of northern California frequently during the summer months (May to September) when rainfall is largely absent (Azevedo and Morgan 1974, Byers 1953, Oberlander 1956). This maritime fog modifies otherwise warm and dry summer climate by increasing humidity, decreasing the air temperature, reducing solar radiation, and...

Summer throughfall and winter deposition in the San Bernardino mountains in southern California

Treesearch

M. E. Fenn; A. Bytnerowicz

1997-01-01

Summer throughfall and year-round precipitation chemistry were studied for three years at Barton Flats (BF), a low to moderate pollution site in the San Bernardino Mountains (SBM) in southern California. Winter fog plus dry deposition, and bulk deposition were also measured during one season at three sites traversing an atmospheric deposition gradient in the SBM....

Basin-scale variation in the spatial pattern of fall movement of juvenile Coho Salmon in the West Fork Smith River, Oregon

Treesearch

Dalton J. Hance; Lisa M. Ganio; Kelly M. Burnett; Joseph L. Ebersole

2016-01-01

For several species of salmonids, Oncorhynchus and Salvelinus spp., inhabiting Pacific coastal temperate streams, juvenile fish have been recorded moving between main-stem and tributary habitats during the transition from the summer dry season to the winter wet season. Movement connecting summer and winter habitats may be particularly important for...

Changes in proximate composition and somatic energy content for Pacific sand lance (Ammodytes hexapterus) from Kachemak Bay, Alaska relative to maturity and season

USGS Publications Warehouse

Robards, Martin D.; Anthony, Jill A.; Rose, George A.; Piatt, John F.

1999-01-01

Mean dry-weight energy values of adult Pacific sand lance (Ammodytes hexapterus) peaked in spring and early summer (20.91 kJg−1 for males, 21.08 kJg−1 for females), then declined by about 25% during late summer and fall (15.91 kJg−1 for males, 15.74 kJg−1 for females). Late summer declines in energy density paralleled gonadal development. Gender differences in energy density (males

Controlling weathering and erosion intensity on the southern slope of the Central Himalaya by the Indian summer monsoon during the last glacial

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuwahara, Yoshihiro; Masudome, Yukiko; Paudel, Mukunda Raj; Fujii, Rie; Hayashi, Tatsuya; Mampuku, Mami; Sakai, Harutaka

2010-03-01

This paper reports the results of clay mineral analysis (the amount of clay fraction, clay mineral assemblages, illite crystallinity) of samples collected from a drilled core (Rabibhawan (RB) core) located in the west-central part of the Kathmandu Basin on the southern slope of the Central Himalaya. The amount of clay fraction in the core sediments between 12 m and 45 m depth (corresponding to ca. 17-76 ka), which belong to the Kalimati Formation, is variable and shows three clay-poor zones (19-31 ka, 44-51 ka, and 66-75 ka). The variations correspond with those of illite crystallinity index (Lanson index (LI) and modified Lanson index (MLI)) and kaolinite/illite ratio as well as the fossil pollen and diatom records reported by previous workers. These data reveal the following transformations occurring during the weathering process in this area: micas(mainlymuscovite)→illite(→illite-smectitemixedlayermineral(R=1))→kaolinite The sedimentation rate (~ 50 cm/kyr) of clay-poor zones that correspond to dry climate intervals is only half that of clay-rich zones (~ 120 cm/kyr) that correspond to wet climate intervals, indicating weakened chemical weathering and erosion and low suspended discharge during dry climate intervals. The clay-poor zones commonly show unique laminite beds with very fine, authigenic calcite, which was probably precipitated under calm and high calcite concentration conditions caused by low precipitation and run-off. The variations between dry and wet conditions in this area as deduced from clay minerals appear to follow the Indian Summer Monsoon Index (ISMI) (30°N-30°S, 1 July) and northern hemisphere summer insolation (NHSI) signals (30°N) at 1 July, especially during the dry climate zones, whereas the wet maxima of the wet climate zones somewhat deviate from the strongest NHSI. On the other hand, the dry-wet records lead markedly the SPECMAP stack (by about 5000 years). These results suggest that the Indian summer monsoon precipitation was strongly controlled by the NHSI or summer insolation difference between the Himalayan-Tibetan Plateau and the subtropical Indian Ocean, showing a major fluctuation on the 23,000 years precessional cycle, and that it was not driven by changes in high-latitude ice volume, although the records of clay mineral indices during the wet intervals leave a question that other factors, in addition to insolation forcing, may play important roles in weathering, erosion, and sedimentation processes.

Trait-specific responses of Scots pine to irrigation on a short vs long time scale.

PubMed

Feichtinger, Linda M; Eilmann, Britta; Buchmann, Nina; Rigling, Andreas

2015-02-01

In xeric environments, an increase in drought is related to reduced forest productivity and to enhanced mortality. However, predictions of future forest development remain difficult as the mechanisms underlying the responses of mature trees to long-term variations in water availability are not well understood. Here, we aimed to compare the adjustments in radial growth and morphological needle and shoot traits of mature Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) growing along open water channels with those of control trees growing under naturally dry conditions at three sites in Valais, an inner-Alpine dry valley of Switzerland. The trees growing along two channels had been irrigated since germination (>70 years), whereas those along another previously drained channel had been irrigated only from 2010 to 2012, when the channel was re-established, and could thus be used to quantify the short-term effects of re-irrigation. Linear mixed models revealed that needle and shoot lengths as well as early- and late-wood basal area increments (BAIs) were most responsive to short-term and long-term irrigation. However, the magnitude of the response to the short-term irrigation exceeded that of the long-term irrigation. An extreme drought during the first half of 2011 led to an immediate decrease in the needle length, needle width, and early- and late-wood BAIs of the control trees, whereas the shoot length and needle numbers of control trees reacted with a 1-year delay to the extreme drought, as the shoots were responding to water availability of previous year's summer. Such negative responses to dry climatic conditions were even found in irrigated trees at one of our sites, which might be linked to tree growth becoming more sensitive to drought with increasing tree height and leaf area. In order to improve predictions of future forest development, long-term studies are necessary that consider lagged responses and adjustment processes of trees to changes in water availability. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

[The disease and treatment of the frontline soldiers in Han dynasty].

PubMed

Min, Hookie

2015-04-01

This paper purports to identify and analyze the medical information of the frontline soldiers in the Northwest borderland provinces of Han Dynasty, especially Juyan and Dunhuang region, through an heuristic reading of the Juyan Bamboo Slips and the Dunhuang Bamboo Slips of the Han Dynasty. My findings are as follows. The most frequent disease found in the bamboo slips was the external injury. The injury of the frontline soldiers mainly occurred from the quarrels among armed soldiers using weapons. The bamboo slips also demonstrate that the quarrels usually arose due to the fierce tension caused by the frontier line service such as heavy guard activity and labour duty. Undernourishment and chronic stress the soldiers suffered might be another reasons. The second most common disease harassing the soldiers was exogenous febrile disease. In most cases reviewed in this paper, the exogenous febrile disease was usually concurrent with complex symptoms such as chills, fever, headache, etc. The bamboo slips show that the exogenous febrile disease was related to the harsh climate of the Northwest provinces, featuring extremely dry weather and the large magnitude of diurnal temperature fluctuations. In addition, the annual temperature range in the Northwest province was huge, fluctuating between very cold and dry winter and very hot and dry summer. The third most common disease this study identified was the disorder of the digestive system and respiratory system. However, these two types of disease were virtually indistinguishable in the bamboo slips, because the ancient Chinese chroniclers did not distinguish them, usually dubbing both diseases simply 'abdominal pain.' It should be mentioned that a few slips mention contagious disease such as dysentery and dermatolosis, and sudden death, as well. Overall, the bamboo slips demonstrate extremely poor status of the soldiers' heath condition and poor medical environment surrounding the soldiers stationing in the Northwest borderland military camps. The records also show that acupuncture, applying a plaster, drugs were the most common medical treatment. Drugs among them was the most frequently used. Whereas Acupuncture, applying a plaster were very rarely used. Medication has been used in three ways: powdered medicine, medicinal decoction and pill. Medicinal decoction was the most commonly used way.

The effect of seasonal drying on sulphate dynamics in streams across southeastern Canada and the northeastern USA

Treesearch

J.G. Kerr; M.C. Eimers; I.F. Creed; M.B. Adams; F. Beall; D. Burns; J.L. Campbell; S.F. Christopher; T.A. Clair; F. Courchesne; L. Duchesne; I. Fernandez; D. Houle; D.S. Jeffries; G.E. Likens; M.J. Mitchell; J. Shanley; H. Yao

2012-01-01

Within the southeast Canada and northeast USA region, a peak in sulphate (SO42-) concentration has been reported for some streams following periods of substantial catchment drying during the summer months (ON, Canada; VT, NH and NY, USA). However, it is currently unclear if a SO42-...

South Asian Summer Monsoon Rainfall Variability and Trend: Its Links to Indo-Pacific SST Anomalies and Moist Processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prasanna, V.

2016-06-01

The warm (cold) phase of El Niño (La Niña) and its impact on all Indian Summer Monsoon rainfall (AISMR) relationship is explored for the past 100 years. The 103-year (1901-2003) data from the twentieth century reanalysis datasets (20CR) and other major reanalysis datasets for southwest monsoon season (JJAS) is utilized to find out the simultaneous influence of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-AISMR relationship. Two cases such as wet, dry monsoon years associated with ENSO(+) (El Niño), ENSO(-) (La Niña) and Non-ENSO (neutral) events have been discussed in detail using observed rainfall and three-dimensional 20CR dataset. The dry and wet years associated with ENSO and Non-ENSO periods show significant differences in the spatial pattern of rainfall associated with three-dimensional atmospheric composite, the 20CR dataset has captured the anomalies quite well. During wet (dry) years, the rainfall is high (low), i.e. 10 % above (below) average from the long-term mean and this wet or dry condition occur both during ENSO and Non-ENSO phases. The Non-ENSO year dry or wet composites are also focused in detail to understand, where do the anomalous winds come from unlike in the ENSO case. The moisture transport is coherent with the changes in the spatial pattern of AISMR and large-scale feature in the 20CR dataset. Recent 50-year trend (1951-2000) is also analyzed from various available observational and reanalysis datasets to see the influence of Indo-Pacific SST and moist processes on the South Asian summer monsoon rainfall trend. Apart from the Indo-Pacific sea surface temperatures (SST), the moisture convergence and moisture transport among India (IND), Equatorial Indian Ocean (IOC) and tropical western pacific (WNP) is also important in modifying the wet or dry cycles over India. The mutual interaction among IOC, WNP and IND in seasonal timescales is significant in modifying wet and dry cycles over the Indian region and the seasonal anomalies.

Tolerance to multiple climate stressors: A case study of Douglas-fir drought and cold hardiness

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bansal, Sheel; Harrington, Constance A; St. Clair, John Bradley

2016-01-01

Summary: 1. Drought and freeze events are two of the most common forms of climate extremes which result in tree damage or death, and the frequency and intensity of both stressors may increase with climate change. Few studies have examined natural covariation in stress tolerance traits to cope with multiple stressors among wild plant populations. 2. We assessed the capacity of coastal Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii var. menziesii), an ecologically and economically important species in the northwestern USA, to tolerate both drought and cold stress on 35 populations grown in common gardens. We used principal components analysis to combine drought and cold hardiness trait data into generalized stress hardiness traits to model geographic variation in hardiness as a function of climate across the Douglas-fir range. 3. Drought and cold hardiness converged among populations along winter temperature gradients and diverged along summer precipitation gradients. Populations originating in regions with cold winters had relatively high tolerance to both drought and cold stress, which is likely due to overlapping adaptations for coping with winter desiccation. Populations from regions with dry summers had increased drought hardiness but reduced cold hardiness, suggesting a trade-off in tolerance mechanisms. 4. Our findings highlight the necessity to look beyond bivariate trait–climate relationships and instead consider multiple traits and climate variables to effectively model and manage for the impacts of climate change on widespread species.

Regional Climate Variability Under Model Simulations of Solar Geoengineering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dagon, Katherine; Schrag, Daniel P.

2017-11-01

Solar geoengineering has been shown in modeling studies to successfully mitigate global mean surface temperature changes from greenhouse warming. Changes in land surface hydrology are complicated by the direct effect of carbon dioxide (CO2) on vegetation, which alters the flux of water from the land surface to the atmosphere. Here we investigate changes in boreal summer climate variability under solar geoengineering using multiple ensembles of model simulations. We find that spatially uniform solar geoengineering creates a strong meridional gradient in the Northern Hemisphere temperature response, with less consistent patterns in precipitation, evapotranspiration, and soil moisture. Using regional summertime temperature and precipitation results across 31-member ensembles, we show a decrease in the frequency of heat waves and consecutive dry days under solar geoengineering relative to a high-CO2 world. However in some regions solar geoengineering of this amount does not completely reduce summer heat extremes relative to present day climate. In western Russia and Siberia, an increase in heat waves is connected to a decrease in surface soil moisture that favors persistent high temperatures. Heat waves decrease in the central United States and the Sahel, while the hydrologic response increases terrestrial water storage. Regional changes in soil moisture exhibit trends over time as the model adjusts to solar geoengineering, particularly in Siberia and the Sahel, leading to robust shifts in climate variance. These results suggest potential benefits and complications of large-scale uniform climate intervention schemes.

Translation of Land Surface Model Accuracy and Uncertainty into Coupled Land-Atmosphere Prediction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Santanello, Joseph A.; Kumar, Sujay; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.; Harrison, Kenneth W.; Zhou, Shuija

2012-01-01

Land-atmosphere (L-A) Interactions playa critical role in determining the diurnal evolution of both planetary boundary layer (PBL) and land surface heat and moisture budgets, as well as controlling feedbacks with clouds and precipitation that lead to the persistence of dry and wet regimes. Recent efforts to quantify the strength of L-A coupling in prediction models have produced diagnostics that integrate across both the land and PBL components of the system. In this study, we examine the impact of improved specification of land surface states, anomalies, and fluxes on coupled WRF forecasts during the summers of extreme dry (2006) and wet (2007) land surface conditions in the U.S. Southern Great Plains. The improved land initialization and surface flux parameterizations are obtained through the use of a new optimization and uncertainty estimation module in NASA's Land Information System (US-OPT/UE), whereby parameter sets are calibrated in the Noah land surface model and classified according to a land cover and soil type mapping of the observation sites to the full model domain. The impact of calibrated parameters on the a) spinup of the land surface used as initial conditions, and b) heat and moisture states and fluxes of the coupled WRF Simulations are then assessed in terms of ambient weather and land-atmosphere coupling along with measures of uncertainty propagation into the forecasts. In addition, the sensitivity of this approach to the period of calibration (dry, wet, average) is investigated. Finally, tradeoffs of computational tractability and scientific validity, and the potential for combining this approach with satellite remote sensing data are also discussed.

Impact of Land Model Calibration on Coupled Land-Atmosphere Prediction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Santanello, Joseph A., Jr.; Kumar, Sujay V.; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.; Harrison, Ken; Zhou, Shujia

2012-01-01

Land-atmosphere (L-A) interactions play a critical role in determining the diurnal evolution of both planetary boundary layer (PBL) and land surface heat and moisture budgets, as well as controlling feedbacks with clouds and precipitation that lead to the persistence of dry and wet regimes. Recent efforts to quantify the strength of L-A coupling in prediction models have produced diagnostics that integrate across both the land and PBL components of the system. In this study, we examine the impact of improved specification of land surface states, anomalies, and fluxes on coupled WRF forecasts during the summers of extreme dry and wet land surface conditions in the U.S. Southern Great Plains. The improved land initialization and surface flux parameterizations are obtained through calibration of the Noah land surface model using the new optimization and uncertainty estimation subsystem in NASA's Land Information System (LIS-OPT/UE). The impact of the calibration on the a) spinup of the land surface used as initial conditions, and b) the simulated heat and moisture states and fluxes of the coupled WRF simulations is then assessed. Changes in ambient weather and land-atmosphere coupling are evaluated along with measures of uncertainty propagation into the forecasts. In addition, the sensitivity of this approach to the period of calibration (dry, wet, average) is investigated. Results indicate that the offline calibration leads to systematic improvements in land-PBL fluxes and near-surface temperature and humidity, and in the process provide guidance on the questions of what, how, and when to calibrate land surface models for coupled model prediction.

Assessing onset and length of greening period in six vegetation types in Oaxaca, Mexico, using NDVI-precipitation relationships.

PubMed

Gómez-Mendoza, L; Galicia, L; Cuevas-Fernández, M L; Magaña, V; Gómez, G; Palacio-Prieto, J L

2008-07-01

Variations in the normalized vegetation index (NDVI) for the state of Oaxaca, in southern Mexico, were analyzed in terms of precipitation anomalies for the period 1997-2003. Using 10-day averages in NDVI data, obtained from AVHRR satellite information, the response of six types of vegetation to intra-annual and inter-annual fluctuations in precipitation were examined. The onset and temporal evolution of the greening period were studied in terms of precipitation variations through spectral analysis (coherence and phase). The results indicate that extremely dry periods, such as those observed in 1997 and 2001, resulted in low values of NDVI for much of Oaxaca, while good precipitation periods produced a rapid response (20-30 days of delay) from a stressed to a non-stressed condition in most vegetation types. One of these rapid changes occurred during the transition from dry to wet conditions during the summer of 1998. As in many parts of the tropics and subtropics, the NDVI reflects low frequency variations in precipitation on several spatial scales. Even after long dry periods (2001-2002), the various regional vegetation types are capable of recovering when a good rainy season takes place, indicating that vegetation types such as the evergreen forests in the high parts of Oaxaca respond better to rainfall characteristics (timing, amount) than to temperature changes, as is the case in most mid-latitudes. This finding may be relevant to prepare climate change scenarios for forests, where increases in surface temperature and precipitation anomalies are expected.

Refuge habitats for fishes during seasonal drying in an intermittent stream: Movement, survival and abundance of three minnow species

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hodges, S.W.; Magoulick, D.D.

2011-01-01

Drought and summer drying can be important disturbance events in many small streams leading to intermittent or isolated habitats. We examined what habitats act as refuges for fishes during summer drying, hypothesizing that pools would act as refuge habitats. We predicted that during drying fish would show directional movement into pools from riffle habitats, survival rates would be greater in pools than in riffles, and fish abundance would increase in pool habitats. We examined movement, survival and abundance of three minnow species, bigeye shiner (Notropis boops), highland stoneroller (Campostoma spadiceum) and creek chub (Semotilus atromaculatus), during seasonal stream drying in an Ozark stream using a closed robust multi-strata mark-recapture sampling. Population parameters were estimated using plausible models within program MARK, where a priori models are ranked using Akaike's Information Criterion. Creek chub showed directional movement into pools and increased survival and abundance in pools during drying. Highland stonerollers showed strong directional movement into pools and abundance increased in pools during drying, but survival rates were not significantly greater in pools than riffles. Bigeye shiners showed high movement rates during drying, but the movement was non-directional, and survival rates were greater in riffles than pools. Therefore, creek chub supported our hypothesis and pools appear to act as refuge habitats for this species, whereas highland stonerollers partly supported the hypothesis and bigeye shiners did not support the pool refuge hypothesis. Refuge habitats during drying are species dependent. An urgent need exists to further understand refuge habitats in streams given projected changes in climate and continued alteration of hydrological regimes. ?? 2011 Springer Basel AG (outside the USA).

Australia's Unprecedented Future Temperature Extremes Under Paris Limits to Warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lewis, Sophie C.; King, Andrew D.; Mitchell, Daniel M.

2017-10-01

Record-breaking temperatures can detrimentally impact ecosystems, infrastructure, and human health. Previous studies show that climate change has influenced some observed extremes, which are expected to become more frequent under enhanced future warming. Understanding the magnitude, as a well as frequency, of such future extremes is critical for limiting detrimental impacts. We focus on temperature changes in Australian regions, including over a major coral reef-building area, and assess the potential magnitude of future extreme temperatures under Paris Agreement global warming targets (1.5°C and 2°C). Under these limits to global mean warming, we determine a set of projected high-magnitude unprecedented Australian temperature extremes. These include extremes unexpected based on observational temperatures, including current record-breaking events. For example, while the difference in global-average warming during the hottest Australian summer and the 2°C Paris target is 1.1°C, extremes of 2.4°C above the observed summer record are simulated. This example represents a more than doubling of the magnitude of extremes, compared with global mean change, and such temperatures are unexpected based on the observed record alone. Projected extremes do not necessarily scale linearly with mean global warming, and this effect demonstrates the significant potential benefits of limiting warming to 1.5°C, compared to 2°C or warmer.

Case study for the assessment of the biogeophysical effects of a potential afforestation in Europe

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background A regional-scale sensitivity study has been carried out to investigate the climatic effects of forest cover change in Europe. Applying REMO (regional climate model of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology), the projected temperature and precipitation tendencies have been analysed for summer, based on the results of the A2 IPCC-SRES emission scenario simulation. For the end of the 21st century it has been studied, whether the assumed forest cover increase could reduce the effects of the greenhouse gas concentration change. Results Based on the simulation results, biogeophysical effects of the hypothetic potential afforestation may lead to cooler and moister conditions during summer in most parts of the temperate zone. The largest relative effects of forest cover increase can be expected in northern Germany, Poland and Ukraine, which is 15–20% of the climate change signal for temperature and more than 50% for precipitation. In northern Germany and France, potential afforestation may enhance the effects of emission change, resulting in more severe heavy precipitation events. The probability of dry days and warm temperature extremes would decrease. Conclusions Large contiguous forest blocks can have distinctive biogeophysical effect on the climate on regional and local scale. In certain regions of the temperate zone, climate change signal due to greenhouse gas emission can be reduced by afforestation due to the dominant evaporative cooling effect during summer. Results of this case study with a hypothetical land cover change can contribute to the assessment of the role of forests in adapting to climate change. Thus they can build an important basis of the future forest policy. PMID:23369380

Evaluating the cave carbonate chemical signal as a proxy for rain patterns in Mallorca Island

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cacho, Isabel; Cisneros, Mercé; Torner, Judit; Català, Albert; Moreno, Ana; Stoll, Heather; Iglesias, Miguel; Bladé, Ileana; Fornos, Joan

2017-04-01

Mallorca's climate is marked by a strong seasonal cycle in both temperatures and precipitations which is likely to be recorded in the carbonate precipitates formed in its extended karst systems. Here we present isotopes and trace elements measured in dripwaters collected at weakly and/or seasonal bases since spring 2013 in three caves from Mallorca that represent the eastern and S-eastern sector of the island. This information is complemented with isotopic composition of rain events in the same region, other cave environmental parameters and chemistry of seasonal farmed carbonates in the same caves. Drip water results are very consistent between the different studied caves and indicate an important attenuation of the rainfall isotopic signal in the epikarst and only extreme climate conditions such as the severe dry conditions in summer 2015. Farmed carbonates present a clear seasonal cycle with low values, in both carbon and oxygen isotopes, in summer and autumn and high values in winter and spring. This cyclicity can not be attributed to amount effect or rain composition and we propose a close relation to cave environmental conditions. High CO2 concentrations in summer and autumn would avoid degasification reducing the PCP process and resulting in more negative isotopic relationships in both oxygen and carbon isotopes. Coherently, this CO2 cycles are in phase with those of temperature since both reflect ventilation rates in the cave. Nevertheless, ultra-high resolution profiles of Mg/Ca ratios measured by laser ablation on last century carbonate precipitates in the same caves, reveal a inter-annual variability with a persistent cyclicity which show coherent patterns with the instrumental rain records from Mallorca. This comparison reveals the potential of the Mallorca carbonates to reveal the long-term precipitation evolution of the island.

Statistical distributions of extreme dry spell in Peninsular Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zin, Wan Zawiah Wan; Jemain, Abdul Aziz

2010-11-01

Statistical distributions of annual extreme (AE) series and partial duration (PD) series for dry-spell event are analyzed for a database of daily rainfall records of 50 rain-gauge stations in Peninsular Malaysia, with recording period extending from 1975 to 2004. The three-parameter generalized extreme value (GEV) and generalized Pareto (GP) distributions are considered to model both series. In both cases, the parameters of these two distributions are fitted by means of the L-moments method, which provides a robust estimation of them. The goodness-of-fit (GOF) between empirical data and theoretical distributions are then evaluated by means of the L-moment ratio diagram and several goodness-of-fit tests for each of the 50 stations. It is found that for the majority of stations, the AE and PD series are well fitted by the GEV and GP models, respectively. Based on the models that have been identified, we can reasonably predict the risks associated with extreme dry spells for various return periods.

Soil Moisture Anomaly as Predictor of Crop Yield Deviation in Germany

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peichl, Michael; Thober, Stephan; Schwarze, Reimund; Meyer, Volker; Samaniego, Luis

2016-04-01

Natural hazards, such as droughts, have the potential to drastically diminish crop yield in rain-fed agriculture. For example, the drought in 2003 caused direct losses of 1.5 billion EUR only in Germany (COPA-COGECA 2003). Predicting crop yields allows to economize the mitigation of risks of weather extremes. Economic approaches for quantifying agricultural impacts of natural hazards mainly rely on temperature and related concepts. For instance extreme heat over the growing season is considered as best predictor of corn yield (Auffhammer and Schlenker 2014). However, those measures are only able to provide a proxy for the available water content in the root zone that ultimately determines plant growth and eventually crop yield. The aim of this paper is to analyse whether soil moisture has a causal effect on crop yield that can be exploited in improving adaptation measures. For this purpose, reduced form fixed effect panel models are developed with yield as dependent variable for both winter wheat and silo maize crops. The explanatory variables used are soil moisture anomalies, precipitation and temperature. The latter two are included to estimate the current state of the water balance. On the contrary, soil moisture provides an integrated signal over several months. It is also the primary source of water supply for plant growth. For each crop a single model is estimated for every month within the growing period to study the variation of the effects over time. Yield data is available for Germany as a whole on the level of administrative districts from 1990 to 2010. Station data by the German Weather Service are obtained for precipitation and temperature and are aggregated to the same spatial units. Simulated soil moisture computed by the mesoscale Hydrologic Model (mHM, www.ufz.de/mhm) is transformed into Soil Moisture Index (SMI), which represents the monthly soil water quantile and hence accounts directly for the water content available to plants. The results indicate that wet and dry soil moisture anomalies have a causal effect on crop yields. However, the effects vary in magnitude and direction for each crop depending on the month. For instance dry soil moisture anomalies in July, August and September reduce silo maize yield more than ten percent with respect to average conditions. Extreme wetness, however, increases silo maize yield in the same time period. A negative effect is observed for winter wheat during this period for both wet and dry anomalies. The reduction due to dry anomalies is smaller for winter wheat than for silo maize. This study shows that the impact of soil moisture anomalies varies dependent on months and crops. These evolving patterns provide new insights to improve adaptation measures for extreme soil moisture conditions. References Auffhammer, M., and W. Schlenker. 2014. "Empirical studies on agricultural impacts and adaptation." Energy Economics 46:555-561. COPA-COGECA. 2003. "Assessment of the impact of the heat wave and drought of the summer 2003 on agriculture and forestry." In Committee of Agricultural Organisations in the European Union General Committee for Agricultural Cooperation in the European Union, Brussels. p. 15.

Role of Ocean Initial Conditions to Diminish Dry Bias in the Seasonal Prediction of Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall: A Case Study Using Climate Forecast System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koul, Vimal; Parekh, Anant; Srinivas, G.; Kakatkar, Rashmi; Chowdary, Jasti S.; Gnanaseelan, C.

2018-03-01

Coupled models tend to underestimate Indian summer monsoon (ISM) rainfall over most of the Indian subcontinent. Present study demonstrates that a part of dry bias is arising from the discrepancies in Oceanic Initial Conditions (OICs). Two hindcast experiments are carried out using Climate Forecast System (CFSv2) for summer monsoons of 2012-2014 in which two different OICs are utilized. With respect to first experiment (CTRL), second experiment (AcSAL) differs by two aspects: usage of high-resolution atmospheric forcing and assimilation of only ARGO observed temperature and salinity profiles for OICs. Assessment of OICs indicates that the quality of OICs is enhanced due to assimilation of actual salinity profiles. Analysis reveals that AcSAL experiment showed 10% reduction in the dry bias over the Indian land region during the ISM compared to CTRL. This improvement is consistently apparent in each month and is highest for June. The better representation of upper ocean thermal structure of tropical oceans at initial stage supports realistic upper ocean stability and mixing. Which in fact reduced the dominant cold bias over the ocean, feedback to air-sea interactions and land sea thermal contrast resulting better representation of monsoon circulation and moisture transport. This reduced bias of tropospheric moisture and temperature over the Indian land mass and also produced better tropospheric temperature gradient over land as well as ocean. These feedback processes reduced the dry bias in the ISM rainfall. Study concludes that initializing the coupled models with realistic OICs can reduce the underestimation of ISM rainfall prediction.

Soil moisture response to experimentally altered snowmelt timing is mediated by soil, vegetation, and regional climate patterns

USGS Publications Warehouse

Conner, Lafe G; Gill, Richard A.; Belnap, Jayne

2016-01-01

Soil moisture in seasonally snow-covered environments fluctuates seasonally between wet and dry states. Climate warming is advancing the onset of spring snowmelt and may lengthen the summer-dry state and ultimately cause drier soil conditions. The magnitude of either response may vary across elevation and vegetation types. We situated our study at the lower boundary of persistent snow cover and the upper boundary of subalpine forest with paired treatment blocks in aspen forest and open meadow. In treatments plots, we advanced snowmelt timing by an average of 14 days by adding dust to the snow surface during spring melt. We specifically wanted to know whether early snowmelt would increase the duration of the summer-dry period and cause soils to be drier in the early-snowmelt treatments compared with control plots. We found no difference in the onset of the summer-dry state and no significant differences in soil moisture between treatments. To better understand the reasons soil moisture did not respond to early snowmelt as expected, we examined the mediating influences of soil organic matter, texture, temperature, and the presence or absence of forest. In our study, late-spring precipitation may have moderated the effects of early snowmelt on soil moisture. We conclude that landscape characteristics, including soil, vegetation, and regional weather patterns, may supersede the effects of snowmelt timing in determining growing season soil moisture, and efforts to anticipate the impacts of climate change on seasonally snow-covered ecosystems should take into account these mediating factors. 

Drought multiproxy reconstruction in the Czech Lands from AD 1500

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dobrovolný, Petr; Brázdil, Rudolf; Možný, Martin; Trnka, Miroslav; Rybníček, Michal; Kolář, Tomáš

2017-04-01

Whereas the air temperature variability in the past and recent climate is well understood, our knowledge on hydroclimate (drought/precipitation) from various proxy archives and instrumental measurements are sketchy and sometimes even contradictory. This is related to huge spatial and temporal hydroclimate variability that underlines the importance of detailed local/regional studies on long-term hydroclimate variability. We present main results of summer drought reconstruction for the territory of the Czech Republic (CR) spanning the last 500 years. Drought is represented by the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). Summer (JJA) SPEI values calculated from various instrumental measurements from the CR and covering most of the 19th and 20th centuries represent the target data. Three different proxy archives were used for SPEI reconstruction: a) Central European monthly temperature and Czech seasonal precipitation index series derived from documentary evidence (1500-1854); b) grape harvest dates for the Czech Lands (1499-2012); c) oak (Quercus spp.) ring width chronologies from Bohemia (western part of the CR, 1500-2012). Linear regression with subsequent variance scaling were used for calibration in different time intervals covering mostly second part of the 19th and the first part of the 20th centuries. Response functions were further verified on independent proxy and target data. The strongest hydroclimate signal was found for grape harvest dates (more that 70% of explained variance) while oak ring width series show relatively weak reconstruction skill (30% of common variance between proxy and target data). The three SPEI reconstructions show several common features in their long-term variability. Distinctly dry periods cover the first half of the 16th century, which included an extremely dry 1540, and the years since the late 1970s. Higher humidity was characteristic for the second part of the 16th century and also for the turn of the 19th and 20th centuries.

Analysis of anthropogenic contributions to record high Australian summer rainfall (2010-2012) using CMIP5 simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lewis, Sophie; Karoly, David

2013-04-01

Changes in extreme climate events pose significant challenges for both human and natural systems. Some climate extremes are likely to become "more frequent, more widespread and/or more intense during the 21st century" (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2007) due to anthropogenic climate change. Particularly in Australia, El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has a relationship to the relative frequency of temperature and precipitation extremes. In this study, we investigate the record high two-summer rainfall observed in Australia (2010-2011 and 2011-2012). This record rainfall occurred in association with a two year extended La Niña event and resulted in severe and extensive flooding. We examine simulated changes in seasonal-scale rainfall extremes in the Australian region in a suite of models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). In particular, we utilise the novel CMIP5 detection and attribution historical experiments with various forcings (natural forcings only and greenhouse gas forcings only) to examine the impact of various anthropogenic forcings on seasonal-scale extreme rainfall across Australia. Using these standard detection and attribution experiments over the period of 1850 to 2005, we examine La Niña contributions to the 2-season record rainfall, as well as the longer-term climate change contribution to rainfall extremes. Was there an anthropogenic influence in the record high Australian summer rainfall over 2010 to 2012, and if so, how much influence? Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2007), Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by S. Solomon et al., 996 pp., Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, U. K.

Forest fire weather in western Oregon and western Washington in 1958.

Treesearch

Owen P. Cramer

1958-01-01

In terms of general weather, the 1958 fire season will be classed as one of the hottest on record and as having unusually frequent spring and summer lightning storms. It was also unusual in that spring and most of the summer were less rainy in western Washington than in normally dry southwestern Oregon. Thus, until late August, cumulative fire-season rainfall ranged...

Asymmetrical Responses of Ecosystem Processes to Positive Versus Negative Precipitation Extremes: a Replicated Regression Experimental Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Felton, A. J.; Smith, M. D.

2016-12-01

Heightened climatic variability due to atmospheric warming is forecast to increase the frequency and severity of climate extremes. In particular, changes to interannual variability in precipitation, characterized by increases in extreme wet and dry years, are likely to impact virtually all terrestrial ecosystem processes. However, to date experimental approaches have yet to explicitly test how ecosystem processes respond to multiple levels of climatic extremity, limiting our understanding of how ecosystems will respond to forecast increases in the magnitude of climate extremes. Here we report the results of a replicated regression experimental approach, in which we imposed 9 and 11 levels of growing season precipitation amount and extremity in mesic grassland during 2015 and 2016, respectively. Each level corresponded to a specific percentile of the long-term record, which produced a large gradient of soil moisture conditions that ranged from extreme wet to extreme dry. In both 2015 and 2016, asymptotic responses to water availability were observed for soil respiration. This asymmetry was driven in part by transitions between soil moisture versus temperature constraints on respiration as conditions became increasingly dry versus increasingly wet. In 2015, aboveground net primary production (ANPP) exhibited asymmetric responses to precipitation that largely mirrored those of soil respiration. In total, our results suggest that in this mesic ecosystem, these two carbon cycle processes were more sensitive to extreme drought than to extreme wet years. Future work will assess ANPP responses for 2016, soil nutrient supply and physiological responses of the dominant plant species. Future efforts are needed to compare our findings across a diverse array of ecosystem types, and in particular how the timing and magnitude of precipitation events may modify the response of ecosystem processes to increasing magnitudes of precipitation extremes.

Estimating Effects of Brazilian Forest Wildfires on the Carbon Monoxide Concentration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhoi, S.; Qu, J.; Dasgupta, S.

2004-12-01

Forest wildfires have dramatically increased in recent years due to global warming and extreme dry conditions. Forest wildfires spew out a significant amount of atmospheric pollutants, such as carbon monoxide, due to incomplete burning of the biomass. According to United State Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), a high increase of carbon monoxide leads to the formation of carboxyhemoglobin in blood which decreases the oxygen intake capacity of human body and at moderate concentration angina, impaired vision and reduced brain function may occur. As compared to Northern America where significant amount of carbon monoxide released is caused by combustion devices and furnace, the increase of carbon monoxide concentration in Brazilian regions is mainly attributed to the forest fires. In this study, carbon monoxide datasets from the Measurements of pollution in the troposphere (MOPITT) have been analyzed to see the amount of increase in the carbon monoxide concentration after forest wildfires, ire, particularly in summer of 2003. The study reveals that there is a significant increase in the carbon monoxide concentration after forest fires.

Spatiotemporal characteristics of severe dry and wet conditions in the Free State Province, South Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mbiriri, M.; Mukwada, G.; Manatsa, D.

2018-02-01

This paper assesses the spatiotemporal characteristics of agricultural droughts and wet conditions in the Free State Province of South Africa for the period between 1960 and 2013. Since agriculturally, the Free State Province is considered the bread basket of the country, understanding the variability of drought and wet conditions becomes necessary. The Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI) computed from gridded monthly precipitation data was used to assess the rainfall extreme conditions. Hot spot analysis was used to divide the province into five homogenous clusters where the spatiotemporal characteristics for each cluster were analysed. The results show a west to east increase in seasonal average total precipitation. However, the eastern part of the province demonstrates higher occurrences of droughts, with SPI ≤ - 1.282. This is despite the observation that the region shows a recent increase in droughts unlike the western region. It is also noted that significant differences in drought/wet intensities between clusters are more pronounced during the early compared to the late summer period.

Continuous Nanoclimate Data (1985-1988) from the Ross Desert (McMurdo Dry Valleys) Cryptoendolithic Microbial Ecosystem

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

McKay, Christopher P.; Nienow, James; Meyer, Michael A.; Friedmann, E. Imre

1993-01-01

We have collected year-round nanoclimate data for the cryptoendolithic microbial habitat in sandstones of the Ross desert, Antarctica, obtained with an Argos satellite data system. Data for two sites in the McMurdo Dry Valleys are available: Linnaeus Terrace, January 1985 to June 1988, and Battleship Promontory, 1986-1987. The focus of this research is ecological, and hence year-round environmental data have been obtained for the ambient environment as well as for conditions within the rock. Using data from the summer, we compare the conditions inside the rock to the outside weather. This demonstrates how the rock provides a shelter for the endolithic microbial community. The most important property of the rock is that it absorbs the summer sunlight, thereby warming up to temperatures above freezing. This warming allows snowmelt to seep into the rock, and the moisture level in the rocks can remain high for weeks against loss to the dry environment.

An Aggregate of Four Anthrax Cases during the Dry Summer of 2011 in Epirus, Greece.

PubMed

Gaitanis, Georgios; Lolis, Christos J; Tsartsarakis, Antonios; Kalogeropoulos, Chris; Leveidiotou-Stefanou, Stamatina; Bartzokas, Aristidis; Bassukas, Ioannis D

2016-01-01

Human anthrax is currently a sporadic disease in Europe, without significant regional clustering. To report an unexpected aggregate of anthrax cases and correlate local climatic factors with yearly anthrax admissions. Clinical description of a geographical-temporal anthrax aggregate, correlation of disease admissions with local weather data in the period 2001-2014 and literature reports of anthrax clusters from Europe in the last 20 years. We identified 5 cases, all cutaneous: an unexpected aggregate of 4 cases in mid-summer 2011 (including a probable human-to-human transmission) and a sporadic case in August 2005, all in relatively dry periods (p < 0.05). Remarkably, 3/6 reports of human anthrax aggregates from Europe were observed in Balkan Peninsula countries in the year 2011. In the light of the predicted climatic change, unexpected anthrax aggregates during dry periods in southern Europe underscore the risk of future anthrax re-emergence on this continent. © 2015 S. Karger AG, Basel.

During a winter of storms in a small UK catchment, hydrology and water quality responses follow a clear rural-urban gradient

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McGrane, Scott J.; Hutchins, Michael G.; Miller, James D.; Bussi, Gianbattista; Kjeldsen, Thomas R.; Loewenthal, Matt

2017-02-01

This paper presents the hydrological and water quality response from a series of extreme storm events that passed across the UK during the winter of 2013/2014, in an experimental catchment with a strong rural-urban gradient across four nested sub-catchment areas. The Ray catchment in the upper Thames basin, UK, was extensively monitored using in-situ, high-resolution (15 min) flow and water quality instrumentation. Dissolved oxygen, ammonium, turbidity and specific conductivity are used to characterise the water quality dynamics. The impact of the Swindon sewage treatment works (SSTW) on water chemistry at the catchment outlet is considerable. Hydrological and water-quality response varies considerably during the events, with the rural catchments exhibiting a much slower hydrological response compared to urban areas. A simple hydrological model (TETIS) was developed to provide insight into water sources in nested subcatchments, highlighting the disparity of the hydrological dynamics across contrasting land-uses during events. The variation in stormwater runoff sources impacts water quality signals with urban sites contributing to dilution dynamics in ammonium, whereas the more rural site experiences a peak in ammonium during the same event. Dissolved oxygen concentrations vary on a rural-urban gradient and experience a notable sag at the Water Eaton outlet (4.4 mg/l) during the events, that would have resulted in significant ecological harm had they occurred during the summer in warmer temperatures. The water-quality legacy of these storms in the wider context of the hydrological year is somewhat negligible, with markedly poorer water quality signals being observed during the summer months of 2014. Although ammonium concentrations during the events are elevated (above the 'good' status threshold under the WFD), higher values are observed during spring and summer months. The high flows actually appear to flush contaminants out of the Ray and its subcatchments, though the urban sites demonstrate a resupply dynamic during interim dry periods. Data suggest winter storms following dry spells in urban catchments cause some short-lived and spatially extensive deteriorations in water quality. More chronic effects, although prolonged, are only seen downstream of SSTW. These are indicative of capacity of infrastructure being reached, and from the data do not appear to be severe enough to cause ecological harm.

Impact of climate change on hydrological extremes in Dobrogea region, Romania

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buta, Constantin; Maftei, Carmen

2015-04-01

Over time, Dobrogea territory has faced with fluctuations more or less severe in terms of basic parameters such as temperature, precipitations and annual discharges of rivers. It is highlighted the trend of aridity in the area, because of the fact that Dobrogea receives small amounts of water, ranging between 200-450 mm/year, with annual average temperatures lying around and above the average of 11°C. This fact is also proceeding from the many studies realized by other researchers. For this area there are also characteristic torrents (form of rainfall during the summer), the storms and floods accompanying these torrents of water on the narrow valleys, often intermittent, sometimes causing significant damage and even fatalities. Torrential rainfalls and flash floods are sometimes very strong and produce catastrophic damages, as happened at Constanta (in 2001), at Tulcea (in 13.07.2004 and in 29.08.2004), at Tuzla, Pantelimon, Agigea and others. At the opposite pole of the sporadic excess rainfall is drought, which is the largest meteorological phenomenon (both in time and in space) and the most obvious in Dobrogea climate. Drought represents the main argument of semi aridity of this region and the most visible image component which is observed by the inhabitants of this environment. Correlation and study of hydro-meteorological extremes is performed using indices that take into account meteorological and hydrological parameters such as precipitations, temperature, discharges of rivers etc. Hydro-meteorological indices used for this study are: Angot rainfall index; Peguy Climograms; de Martonne drought index; Thornthwaite index Moduli coefficients and Deciles. According to the studied indices, for the accomplishment of this present paper, we can say that Dobrogea is among the driest regions in the country. History of drought in Romania includes many dry years, of which are mentioned: 1894, 1888, 1904, 1918, 1934, 1945, but the droughts years with greater durations, more extensive in territory and severe, were those of 1946 and 2000, which affected Dobrogea region. According to this study and analysis carried out for the period 1965-2005 (regarding of temperatures and precipitations) at eight stations in the Dobrogea region, and for the period 1965 to 2011 (regarding the discharges of rivers) there can be mentioned several dry years, but between them some of them have proved extremely dry, such as the range of years 1973 - 1976, 1980 - 1983, 1986 - 1987 and 2000, and the years with risk by excess of water were: 1966, 1969, 1988, 1997, 2004 and 2005.

Environmental constraints on the compositional and phylogenetic beta-diversity of tropical forest snake assemblages.

PubMed

Moura, Mario R; Costa, Henrique C; Argôlo, Antônio J S; Jetz, Walter

2017-09-01

The ongoing biodiversity crisis increases the importance and urgency of studies addressing the role of environmental variation on the composition and evolutionary history of species assemblages, but especially the tropics and ectotherms remain understudied. In regions with rainy summers, coexistence of tropical ectothermic species may be determined by the partitioning of the climatic niche, as ectotherms can rely on water availability and thermoregulatory behaviour to buffer constraints along their climatic niche. Conversely, tropical ectotherms facing dry summers would have fewer opportunities to climatic niche partitioning and other processes rather than environmental filtering would mediate species coexistence. We used 218 snake assemblages to quantify the compositional (CBD) and phylogenetic (PBD) beta-diversity of snakes in the Atlantic Forest (AF) hotspot, South America. We identify two AF regions with distinct climatological regimes: dry summers in the northern-AF and rainy summers in the southern-AF. While accounting for the influence of multiscale spatial processes, we disentangle the relative contribution of thermal, water-related and topographic conditions in structuring the CBD and PBD of snake assemblages, and determine the extent in which snake assemblages under distinct climatological regimes are affected by environmental filtering. Thermal conditions best explain CBD and PBD of snakes for the whole AF, whereas water-related factors best explain the structure of snake assemblages within a same climatological regime. CBD and PBD patterns are similarly explained by spatial factors but snake assemblages facing dry summers are more affected by spatial processes operating at fine to intermediate spatial scale, whereas those assemblages in regions with rainy summers have a stronger signature of coarse-scale processes. As expected, environmental filtering plays a stronger role in southern-AF than northern-AF, and the synergism between thermal and water-related conditions is the key cause behind this difference. Differences in climatological regimes within the tropics affect processes mediating species coexistence. The influence of broad-scale gradients (e.g. temperature and precipitation) in structuring tropical ectothermic assemblages is greater in regions with rainy summers where climatic niche partitioning is more likely. Our findings highlight the potential stronger role of biotic interactions and neutral processes in structuring ectothermic assemblages facing changes towards warmer and dryer climates. © 2017 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2017 British Ecological Society.

Know your limits? Climate extremes impact the range of Scots pine in unexpected places.

PubMed

Julio Camarero, J; Gazol, Antonio; Sancho-Benages, Santiago; Sangüesa-Barreda, Gabriel

2015-11-01

Although extreme climatic events such as drought are known to modify forest dynamics by triggering tree dieback, the impact of extreme cold events, especially at the low-latitude margin ('rear edge') of species distributional ranges, has received little attention. The aim of this study was to examine the impact of one such extreme cold event on a population of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) along the species' European southern rear-edge range limit and to determine how such events can be incorporated into species distribution models (SDMs). A combination of dendrochronology and field observation was used to quantify how an extreme cold event in 2001 in eastern Spain affected growth, needle loss and mortality of Scots pine. Long-term European climatic data sets were used to contextualize the severity of the 2001 event, and an SDM for Scots pine in Europe was used to predict climatic range limits. The 2001 winter reached record minimum temperatures (equivalent to the maximum European-wide diurnal ranges) and, for trees already stressed by a preceding dry summer and autumn, this caused dieback and large-scale mortality. Needle loss and mortality were particularly evident in south-facing sites, where post-event recovery was greatly reduced. The SDM predicted European Scots pine distribution mainly on the basis of responses to maximum and minimum monthly temperatures, but in comparison with this the observed effects of the 2001 cold event at the southerly edge of the range limit were unforeseen. The results suggest that in order to better forecast how anthropogenic climate change might affect future forest distributions, distribution modelling techniques such as SDMs must incorporate climatic extremes. For Scots pine, this study shows that the effects of cold extremes should be included across the entire distribution margin, including the southern 'rear edge', in order to avoid biased predictions based solely on warmer climatic scenarios. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Annals of Botany Company. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Ambient air metallic pollutant study at HAF areas during 2013-2014

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fang, Guor-Cheng; Kuo, Yu-Chen; Zhuang, Yuan-Jie

2015-05-01

This study characterized diurnal variations of the total suspended particulate (TSP) concentrations, dry deposition flux and dry deposition velocity of metallic elements at Taichung Harbor (Harbor), Gong Ming Junior High School (Airport) and Sha lu Farmland (Farmland) sampling sites in central Taiwan between August, 2013 and July, 2014 in this study. The result indicated that: 1) the ambient air particulate concentrations, dry depositions were displayed as Harbor > Farmland > Airport during the day time sampling period. However, dry deposition velocities were shown as Airport > Harbor > Farmland for this study. 2) The ambient air particulate concentrations, dry depositions were displayed as Airport > Harbor > Farmland during the night time sampling period. However, dry deposition velocities were shown as Farmland > Harbor > Airport for this study. 3) The metallic element Zn has the average highest concentrations at Airport, Harbor and Farmland among all the metallic elements during the day time sampling period in this study. 4) There were significant differences for the metallic elements (Cr, Cu, Zn and Pb) in dry depositions at these three characteristic sampling sites (HAF) for the night time sampling period. The only exception is metallic element Cd. It displayed that there were no significant differences for the metallic element Cd at the Airport and Farmland sampling sites during the night time sampling period. 5) The average highest values for the metallic element Cu in TSP among the three characteristic sampling sites occurred during the fall and winter seasons for this study. As for the dry depositions, the average highest values in dry deposition among the three characteristic sampling sites occurred during the spring and summer seasons for this study. 6) The average highest values for the metallic element Cd in TSP among the three characteristic sampling sites occurred during the spring and summer seasons for this study. As for the dry depositions, the average highest values in dry deposition among the three characteristic sampling sites occurred during fall and winter for this study.

Climatology of extreme daily precipitation in Colorado and its diverse spatial and seasonal variability

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mahoney, Kelly M.; Ralph, F. Martin; Walter, Klaus; Doesken, Nolan; Dettinger, Michael; Gottas, Daniel; Coleman, Timothy; White, Allen

2015-01-01

The climatology of Colorado’s historical extreme precipitation events shows a remarkable degree of seasonal and regional variability. Analysis of the largest historical daily precipitation totals at COOP stations across Colorado by season indicates that the largest recorded daily precipitation totals have ranged from less than 60 mm day−1 in some areas to more than 250 mm day−1 in others. East of the Continental Divide, winter events are rarely among the top 10 events at a given site, but spring events dominate in and near the foothills; summer events are most common across the lower-elevation eastern plains, while fall events are most typical for the lower elevations west of the Divide. The seasonal signal in Colorado’s central mountains is complex; high-elevation intense precipitation events have occurred in all months of the year, including summer, when precipitation is more likely to be liquid (as opposed to snow), which poses more of an instantaneous flood risk. Notably, the historic Colorado Front Range daily rainfall totals that contributed to the damaging floods in September 2013 occurred outside of that region’s typical season for most extreme precipitation (spring–summer). That event and many others highlight the fact that extreme precipitation in Colorado has occurred historically during all seasons and at all elevations, emphasizing a year-round statewide risk.

Robust increase in extreme summer rainfall intensity during the past four decades observed in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xiao, Chan; Wu, Peili; Zhang, Lixia; Song, Lianchun

2016-12-01

Global warming increases the moisture holding capacity of the atmosphere and consequently the potential risks of extreme rainfall. Here we show that maximum hourly summer rainfall intensity has increased by about 11.2% on average, using continuous hourly gauge records for 1971-2013 from 721 weather stations in China. The corresponding event accumulated precipitation has on average increased by more than 10% aided by a small positive trend in events duration. Linear regression of the 95th percentile daily precipitation intensity with daily mean surface air temperature shows a negative scaling of -9.6%/K, in contrast to a positive scaling of 10.6%/K for hourly data. This is made up of a positive scaling below the summer mean temperature and a negative scaling above. Using seasonal means instead of daily means, we find a consistent scaling rate for the region of 6.7-7%/K for both daily and hourly precipitation extremes, about 10% higher than the regional Clausius-Clapeyron scaling of 6.1%/K based on a mean temperature of 24.6 °C. With up to 18% further increase in extreme precipitation under continuing global warming towards the IPCC’s 1.5 °C target, risks of flash floods will exacerbate on top of the current incapability of urban drainage systems in a rapidly urbanizing China.

Using weather in forest management

Treesearch

Michael A. Fosberg

1986-01-01

The summer of 1933 in northwest Oregon had been exceptionally hot and dry. When in mid-August, hot, dry winds blew in from the east, all the fire crews were ready. But there were not enough of them. Scattered fires that started in the coast range merged into what became known as the Tillamook Bum. In 1986, the Forest Service is researching procedures to forecast...

USING INTERNAL RADIO TRANSMITTERS TO DETERMINE THE BEHAVIORAL RESPONSE OF BULLFROGS, RANA CATESBEIANA, TO SEASONAL POND DRYING IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY, OREGON

EPA Science Inventory

We implanted radio tags in adult bullfrogs from three ponds located in a Willamette Valley game reserve to determine their behavior and habitat use as the ponds dried during late summer. We used radio telemetry and a Global Position System (GPS) to locate and record the position ...

Perceptible changes in Indian summer monsoon rainfall in relation to Indian Monsoon Index

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Naidu, C. V.; Dharma Raju, A.; Vinay Kumar, P.; Satyanarayana, G. Ch.

2017-10-01

The changes in the summer monsoon rainfall over 30 meteorological subdivisions of India with respect to changes in circulation and the Indian Monsoon Index (IMI) have been studied for the period 1953-2012. The relationship between the IMIs in different months and whole season and the corresponding summer monsoon rainfall is studied and tested. The positive and negative extremes are evaluated basing on the normalized values of the deviations from the mean of the IMI. Composite rainfall distributions over India and the zonal wind distributions in the lower and upper troposphere of IMI's both positive and negative extremes are evaluated separately and discussed. In the recent three decades of global warming, the negative values of IMI in July and August lead to weakening of the monsoon system over India. It is observed that the rainfall variations in the Northeast India are different from the rest of India except Tamil Nadu in general.

Emergence of heat extremes attributable to anthropogenic influences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

King, Andrew D.; Black, Mitchell T.; Min, Seung-Ki; Fischer, Erich M.; Mitchell, Daniel M.; Harrington, Luke J.; Perkins-Kirkpatrick, Sarah E.

2016-04-01

Climate scientists have demonstrated that a substantial fraction of the probability of numerous recent extreme events may be attributed to human-induced climate change. However, it is likely that for temperature extremes occurring over previous decades a fraction of their probability was attributable to anthropogenic influences. We identify the first record-breaking warm summers and years for which a discernible contribution can be attributed to human influence. We find a significant human contribution to the probability of record-breaking global temperature events as early as the 1930s. Since then, all the last 16 record-breaking hot years globally had an anthropogenic contribution to their probability of occurrence. Aerosol-induced cooling delays the timing of a significant human contribution to record-breaking events in some regions. Without human-induced climate change recent hot summers and years would be very unlikely to have occurred.

Five centuries of Central European temperature extremes reconstructed from tree-ring density and documentary evidence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Battipaglia, Giovanna; Frank, David; Büntgen, Ulf; Dobrovolný, Petr; Brázdil, Rudolf; Pfister, Christian; Esper, Jan

2010-06-01

Future climate change will likely influence the frequency and intensity of weather extremes. As such events are by definition rare, long records are required to understand their characteristics, drivers, and consequences on ecology and society. Herein we provide a unique perspective on regional-scale temperature extremes over the past millennium, using three tree-ring maximum latewood density (MXD) chronologies from higher elevations in the European Alps. We verify the tree-ring-based extremes using documentary evidences from Switzerland, the Czech Republic, and Central Europe that allowed the identification of 44 summer extremes over the 1550-2003 period. These events include cold temperatures in 1579, 1628, 1675, and 1816, as well as warm ones in 1811 and 2003. Prior to 1550, we provide new evidence for cold (e.g., 1068 and 1258) and warm (e.g., 1333) summers derived from the combined MXD records and thus help to characterize high-frequency temperature variability during medieval times. Spatial coherence of the reconstructed extremes is found over Switzerland, with most signatures even extending across Central Europe. We discuss potential limitations of the tree-ring and documentary archives, including the ( i) ability of MXD to particularly capture extremely warm temperatures, ( ii) methodological identification and relative definition of extremes, and ( iii) placement of those events in the millennium-long context of low-frequency climate change.

Climate and environmental changes during the past millennium in central western Guizhou, China as recorded by Stalagmite ZJD-21

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuo, Tz-Shing; Liu, Zi-Qi; Li, Hong-Chun; Wan, Nai-Jung; Shen, Chuan-Chou; Ku, Teh-Lung

2011-04-01

Stalagmite ZJD-21 (12.3-cm long) was collected from Zhijin Cave in Zhijin County, Guizhou, China. Its 210Pb profile and seven 230Th/ 234U dates indicate that the stalagmite has grown continuously for the past 1100 years. The δ18O record of ZJD-21 indicates that δ18O in the stalagmite was mainly influenced by rainfall amount and/or summer/winter rain ratio, with lighter values corresponding to wetter climatic conditions and/or more summer monsoonal rains. The ZJD-21 δ18O record suggests: (1) dry/warm climates during AD 950-1100 (overlapping with most of the Medieval Warm Period, MWP, in Europe); (2) strengthening of the summer monsoon from the MWP toward the beginning of the Little Ice Age (LIA) at AD 1250; (3) relatively wet/cold conditions occurred between AD 1250 and 1500, shown by relatively light δ18O values; (4) the summer monsoon intensity strongly declined referred by the increase δ18O trend from AD 1500 to AD 1600, perhaps resulting in dry/cold conditions; and (5) a strongly enhancement of the summer monsoon intensity appeared from AD 1700 to 1950, reflecting wet/cold conditions during the late period of the LIA. On decadal scales the monsoonal climate of central western Guizhou can be either warm/wet and cold/dry, or warm/dry and cold/wet. The δ13C variations in ZJD-21 on decadal-to-centennial scales respond mainly to vegetation changes with heavier values reflecting lesser amount of forest coverage. Prior to AD 1700, the δ13C generally co-varied with δ18O reflecting the expected more extensive vegetation growth (lighter δ13C) under wetter climate (lighter δ18O). However, during the past 300 years the δ13C increased sharply showing an opposite trend to that of δ18O. This observation strongly suggests that a decline of surface vegetation due to an artificial deforestation might have occurred - an occurrence coincident with the large-scale immigration into central western Guizhou in connection with copper-mining activities during the reign of Emperor Yongzheng of Qing Dynasty. Since the late 1890s, especially in the past 50 years, population surge has led to serious karst rocky desertification in the area.

Desert shrub responses to experimental modification of precipitation seasonality and soil depth: relationship to the two-layer model and ecohydrological niche

USGS Publications Warehouse

Germino, Matthew J.; Reinhardt, Keith

2013-01-01

1. Ecohydrological niches are important for understanding plant community responses to climate shifts, particularly in dry lands. According to the two-layer hypothesis, selective use of deep-soil water increases growth or persistence of woody species during warm and dry summer periods and thereby contributes to their coexistence with shallow-rooted herbs in dry ecosystems. The resource-pool hypothesis further suggests that shallow-soil water benefits growth of all plants while deep-soil water primarily enhances physiological maintenance and survival of woody species. Few studies have directly tested these by manipulating deep-soil water availability and observing the long-term outcomes. 2. We predicted that factors promoting infiltration and storage of water in deep soils, specifically greater winter precipitation and soil depth, would enhance Artemisia tridentata (big sagebrush) in cold, winter-wet/summer-dry desert. Sagebrush responses to 20 years of winter irrigation were compared to summer- or no irrigation, on plots having relatively deep or shallow soils (2 m vs. 1 m depths). 3. Winter irrigation increased sagebrush cover, and crown and canopy volumes, but not density (individuals/plot) compared to summer or no irrigation, on deep-soil plots. On shallow-soil plots, winter irrigation surprisingly decreased shrub cover and size, and summer irrigation had no effect. Furthermore, multiple regression suggested that the variations in growth were related (i) firstly to water in shallow soils (0-0.2 m) and secondly to deeper soils (> 1 m deep) and (ii) more by springtime than by midsummer soil water. Water-use efficiency increased considerably on shallow soils without irrigation and was lowest with winter irrigation. 4. Synthesis. Sagebrush was more responsive to the seasonal timing of precipitation than to total annual precipitation. Factors that enhanced deep-water storage (deeper soils plus more winter precipitation) led to increases in Artemisia tridentata that were consistent with the two-layer hypothesis, and the contribution of shallow water to growth on these plots was consistent with the resource-pool hypothesis. However, shallow-soil water also had negative effects on sagebrush, suggesting an ecohydrological trade-off not considered in these or related theories. The interaction between precipitation timing and soil depth indicates that increased winter precipitation could lead to a mosaic of increases and decreases in A. tridentata across landscapes having variable soil depth.

Increase in flood frequency during extreme aridity in the Eastern Mediterranean at the last interglacial

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kiro, Yael; Goldstein, Steven L.; Kushnir, Yochanan; Lazr, Boaz; Stein, Mordechai

2017-04-01

The Levant region of the Eastern Mediterranean is expected to suffer greatly from climate change. It is a drought-sensitive area, where warming climate may have already affected political stability in the region. Climate models and observations show a recent drying trend around the entire Mediterranean during winter, the wet season, that has been attributed to a combination of natural variability and increased greenhouse gas concentrations. Together with the drying trend, the region has also experienced more intense rainfall events. Thick halite sequences revealed by the Dead Sea Deep Drilling project (DSDDP) cores show that extremely arid conditions prevailed in the Levant during Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 5e. This time interval was relatively warm and characterized by an average precipitation rate of 50% compared to the present (based on water and salt budgets). It also exhibited strong fluctuations between wet periods similar to the present-day lasting a few thousands of years, and dry periods with precipitation as low as 20% of the present-day over intervals lasting a few hundreds of years. At the same time, the climate was characterized by scarce but intense rainfall events in the southern Levant and increased flash flood frequency. The increase in precipitation in the south is indicated by changes in 234U/238U activity ratios in authigenic minerals in the cores, which is a good proxy for identifying changes in water sources. The synoptic configuration, of overall increased aridity together with an increase in southern precipitation and flash floods, is known from the present climate but is less dominant than the normal conditions whereby winter precipitation is fed by a Mediterranean moisture source. Climate models suggest that an increase in both summer and winter precipitation occurred during the peak insolation at 125 ka, with both the Mediterranean and the tropics as possible moisture sources. At 120 ka, climate model runs using the NCAR CCM3, show a decrease in precipitation, which coincides with the thick sequence of halite in the DSDDP core. Despite the decrease in total annual precipitation, the 120 ka simulation shows an increase in autumn precipitation that seems to be the result of intensification of the African Monsoon. This autumn intensification coincides with a drift in the positive summer insolation anomaly toward the fall season, and highlights the significance of the orbital forcing of mid-latitude climate. These results have a direct relationship to modern climate and possibly its expected future changes. Today, a manifestation of the African Monsoon in the Levant is the active Red Sea Trough (RST), which is responsible for major flooding in the Levant and the Middle East during the autumn. Modern observations show that the current increase in aridity is associated with a decrease in the major Mediterranean source (the Cyprus Low) contributor to Levant precipitation and an increase in RST frequency.

Projections of Future Precipitation Extremes Over Europe: A Multimodel Assessment of Climate Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rajczak, Jan; Schär, Christoph

2017-10-01

Projections of precipitation and its extremes over the European continent are analyzed in an extensive multimodel ensemble of 12 and 50 km resolution EURO-CORDEX Regional Climate Models (RCMs) forced by RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 (Representative Concentration Pathway) aerosol and greenhouse gas emission scenarios. A systematic intercomparison with ENSEMBLES RCMs is carried out, such that in total information is provided for an unprecedentedly large data set of 100 RCM simulations. An evaluation finds very reasonable skill for the EURO-CORDEX models in simulating temporal and geographical variations of (mean and heavy) precipitation at both horizontal resolutions. Heavy and extreme precipitation events are projected to intensify across most of Europe throughout the whole year. All considered models agree on a distinct intensification of extremes by often more than +20% in winter and fall and over central and northern Europe. A reduction of rainy days and mean precipitation in summer is simulated by a large majority of models in the Mediterranean area, but intermodel spread between the simulations is large. In central Europe and France during summer, models project decreases in precipitation but more intense heavy and extreme rainfalls. Comparison to previous RCM projections from ENSEMBLES reveals consistency but slight differences in summer, where reductions in southern European precipitation are not as pronounced as previously projected. The projected changes of the European hydrological cycle may have substantial impact on environmental and anthropogenic systems. In particular, the simulations indicate a rising probability of summertime drought in southern Europe and more frequent and intense heavy rainfall across all of Europe.

Internal variability in European summer temperatures at 1.5 °C and 2 °C of global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suarez-Gutierrez, Laura; Li, Chao; Müller, Wolfgang A.; Marotzke, Jochem

2018-06-01

We use the 100-member Grand Ensemble with the climate model MPI-ESM to evaluate the controllability of mean and extreme European summer temperatures with the global mean temperature targets in the Paris Agreement. We find that European summer temperatures at 2 °C of global warming are on average 1 °C higher than at 1.5 °C of global warming with respect to pre-industrial levels. In a 2 °C warmer world, one out of every two European summer months would be warmer than ever observed in our current climate. Daily maximum temperature anomalies for extreme events with return periods of up to 500 years reach return levels of 7 °C at 2 °C of global warming and 5.5 °C at 1.5 °C of global warming. The largest differences in return levels for shorter return periods of 20 years are over southern Europe, where we find the highest mean temperature increase. In contrast, for events with return periods of over 100 years these differences are largest over central Europe, where we find the largest changes in temperature variability. However, due to the large effect of internal variability, only four out of every ten summer months in a 2 °C warmer world present mean temperatures that could be distinguishable from those in a 1.5 °C world. The distinguishability between the two climates is largest over southern Europe, while decreasing to around 10% distinguishable months over eastern Europe. Furthermore, we find that 10% of the most extreme and severe summer maximum temperatures in a 2 °C world could be avoided by limiting global warming to 1.5 °C.

Climate change and the Delta

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dettinger, Michael; Anderson, Jamie; Anderson, Michael L.; Brown, Larry R.; Cayan, Daniel; Maurer, Edwin P.

2016-01-01

Anthropogenic climate change amounts to a rapidly approaching, “new” stressor in the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta system. In response to California’s extreme natural hydroclimatic variability, complex water-management systems have been developed, even as the Delta’s natural ecosystems have been largely devastated. Climate change is projected to challenge these management and ecological systems in different ways that are characterized by different levels of uncertainty. For example, there is high certainty that climate will warm by about 2°C more (than late-20th-century averages) by mid-century and about 4°C by end of century, if greenhouse-gas emissions continue their current rates of acceleration. Future precipitation changes are much less certain, with as many climate models projecting wetter conditions as drier. However, the same projections agree that precipitation will be more intense when storms do arrive, even as more dry days will separate storms. Warmer temperatures will likely enhance evaporative demands and raise water temperatures. Consequently, climate change is projected to yield both more extreme flood risks and greater drought risks. Sea level rise (SLR) during the 20th century was about 22cm, and is projected to increase by at least 3-fold this century. SLR together with land subsidence threatens the Delta with greater vulnerabilities to inundation and salinity intrusion. Effects on the Delta ecosystem that are traceable to warming include SLR, reduced snowpack, earlier snowmelt and larger storm-driven streamflows, warmer and longer summers, warmer summer water temperatures, and water-quality changes. These changes and their uncertainties will challenge the operations of water projects and uses throughout the Delta’s watershed and delivery areas. Although the effects of climate change on Delta ecosystems may be profound, the end results are difficult to predict, except that native species will fare worse than invaders. Successful preparation for the coming changes will require greater integration of monitoring, modeling, and decision making across time, variables, and space than has been historically normal.

Simulating the effect of climate extremes on groundwater flow through a lakebed

USGS Publications Warehouse

Virdi, Makhan L.; Lee, Terrie M.; Swancar, Amy; Niswonger, Richard G.

2012-01-01

Groundwater exchanges with lakes resulting from cyclical wet and dry climate extremes maintain lake levels in the environment in ways that are not well understood, in part because they remain difficult to simulate. To better understand the atypical groundwater interactions with lakes caused by climatic extremes, an original conceptual approach is introduced using MODFLOW-2005 and a kinematic-wave approximation to variably saturated flow that allows lake size and position in the basin to change while accurately representing the daily lake volume and three-dimensional variably saturated groundwater flow responses in the basin. Daily groundwater interactions are simulated for a calibrated lake basin in Florida over a decade that included historic wet and dry departures from the average rainfall. The divergent climate extremes subjected nearly 70% of the maximum lakebed area and 75% of the maximum shoreline perimeter to both groundwater inflow and lake leakage. About half of the lakebed area subject to flow reversals also went dry. A flow-through pattern present for 73% of the decade caused net leakage from the lake 80% of the time. Runoff from the saturated lake margin offset the groundwater deficit only about half of that time. A centripetal flow pattern present for 6% of the decade was important for maintaining the lake stage and generated 30% of all net groundwater inflow. Pumping effects superimposed on dry climate extremes induced the least frequent but most cautionary flow pattern with leakage from over 90% of the actual lakebed area.

Tuber yield and quality characteristics of potatoes for off-season crops in a Mediterranean environment.

PubMed

Ierna, Anita

2010-01-15

There is little research on evaluating the compatibility of potatoes for double cropping in southern Italy. The aim of this investigation was to assess tuber yield and some qualitative traits of tubers such as skin colour, tuber dry matter content and tuber nitrate content, both in winter-spring and in summer-autumn crops, as influenced by genotype and harvest time. Yield, skin colour and dry matter content of tubers were higher in the winter-spring crop than in the summer-autumn crop, attributable to the advantageous lag time in spring between solar radiation and temperatures and the disadvantageous lag in autumn. Spunta and Arinda performed well within each crop season, whereas Ninfa showed an important yield loss in autumn. In both off-season crops, delaying tuber harvest until leaf senescence increased yield and improved quality attributes such as tuber dry matter content and skin colour, whereas nitrate contents significantly decreased in the winter-spring crop and increased in the summer-autumn crop. Ninfa showed less tendency than Arinda and Spunta to accumulate nitrate in tubers in both off-season crops. It might be advantageous to examine in further research which mechanisms sustain compatibility to the autumn and assess other quality characteristics for the fresh market in the contrasting climatic conditions of the two off-season crops. Copyright (c) 2009 Society of Chemical Industry.

Processes affecting the movement of organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) between soil and air in an industrial site in Turkey.

PubMed

Bozlaker, Ayse; Muezzinoglu, Aysen; Odabasi, Mustafa

2009-11-01

Soil and atmospheric concentrations, dry deposition and soil-air gas exchange of organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) were investigated at an industrial site in Aliaga, Izmir, Turkey. Current-use pesticides, endosulfan and chlorpyrifos, had the highest atmospheric levels in summer and winter. Summertime total (gas+particle) OCP concentrations in air were higher, probably due to increased volatilization at higher temperatures and seasonal local/regional applications of current-use pesticides. Particle deposition fluxes were generally higher in summer than in winter. Overall average dry particle deposition velocity for all the OCPs was 4.9+/-4.1 cm s(-1) (average+/-SD). SigmaDDXs (sum of p,p'-DDT, p,p'-DDD, and p,p'-DDE) were the most abundant OCPs in Aliaga soils (n=48), probably due to their heavy historical use and persistence. Calculated fugacity ratios and average net gas fluxes across the soil-air interface indicated volatilization for alpha-CHL, gamma-CHL, heptachlorepoxide, cis-nonachlor, trans-nonachlor, and p,p'-DDT in summer, and for alpha-CHL, gamma-CHL, trans-nonachlor, endosulfan sulfate, and p,p'-DDT in winter. For the remaining OCPs, soil acted as a sink during both seasons. Comparison of the determined fluxes showed that dry particle, gas-phase, and wet deposition are significant OCP input mechanisms to the soil in the study area.

Surface-Atmosphere Connections on Titan: A New Window into Terrestrial Hydroclimate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Faulk, Sean

This dissertation investigates the coupling between the large-scale atmospheric circulation and surface processes on Titan, with a particular focus on methane precipitation and its influence on surface geomorphology and hydrology. As the only body in the Solar System with an active hydrologic cycle other than Earth, Titan presents a valuable laboratory for studying principles of hydroclimate on terrestrial planets. Idealized general circulation models (GCMs) are used here to test hypotheses regarding Titan's surface-atmosphere connections. First, an Earth-like GCM simulated over a range of rotation rates is used to evaluate the effect of rotation rate on seasonal monsoon behavior. Slower rotation rates result in poleward migration of summer rain, indicating a large-scale atmospheric control on Titan's observed dichotomy of dry low latitudes and moist high latitudes. Second, a Titan GCM benchmarked against observations is used to analyze the magnitudes and frequencies of extreme methane rainstorms as simulated by the model. Regional patterns in these extreme events correlate well with observed geomorphic features, with the most extreme rainstorms occurring in mid-latitude regions associated with high alluvial fan concentrations. Finally, a planetary surface hydrology scheme is developed and incorporated into a Titan GCM to evaluate the roles of surface flow, subsurface flow, infiltration, and groundmethane evaporation in Titan's climate. The model reproduces Titan's observed surface liquid and cloud distributions, and reaches an equilibrium state with limited interhemispheric transport where atmospheric transport is approximately balanced by subsurface transport. The equilibrium state suggests that Titan's current hemispheric surface liquid asymmetry, favoring methane accumulation in the north, is stable in the modern climate.

Changes in whole-tree water relations during ontogeny of Pinus flexilis and Pinus ponderosa in a high-elevation meadow.

PubMed

Fischer, Dylan G; Kolb, Thomas E; DeWald, Laura E

2002-07-01

We measured sap flux in Pinus ponderosa Laws. and Pinus flexilis James trees in a high-elevation meadow in northern Arizona that has been invaded by conifers over the last 150 years. Sap flux and environmental data were collected from July 1 to September 1, 2000, and used to estimate leaf specific transpiration rate (El), canopy conductance (Gc) and whole-plant hydraulic conductance (Kh). Leaf area to sapwood area ratio (LA/SA) increased with increasing tree size in P. flexilis, but decreased with increasing tree size in P. ponderosa. Both Gc and Kh decreased with increasing tree size in P. flexilis, and showed no clear trends with tree size in P. ponderosa. For both species, Gc was lower in the summer dry season than in the summer rainy season, but El did not change between wet and dry summer seasons. Midday water potential (Psi(mid)) did not change across seasons for either species, whereas predawn water potential (Psi(pre)) tracked variation in soil water content across seasons. Pinus flexilis showed greater stomatal response to vapor pressure deficit (VPD) and maintained higher Psi(mid) than P. ponderosa. Both species showed greater sensitivity to VPD at high photosynthetically active radiation (PAR; > 2500 micromol m-2 s-1) than at low PAR (< 2500 micromol m-2 s-1). We conclude that the direction of change in Gc and Kh with increasing tree size differed between co-occurring Pinus species, and was influenced by changes in LA/SA. Whole-tree water use and El were similar between wet and dry summer seasons, possibly because of tight stomatal control over water loss. 2002 Heron Publishing--Victoria, Canada

Host plant development, water level and water parameters shape Phragmites australis-associated oomycete communities and determine reed pathogen dynamics in a large lake.

PubMed

Wielgoss, Anna; Nechwatal, Jan; Bogs, Carolin; Mendgen, Kurt

2009-08-01

In a 3-year-study, we analysed the population dynamics of the reed pathogen Pythium phragmitis and other reed-associated oomycetes colonizing fresh and dried reed leaves in the littoral zone of a large lake. Oomycete communities derived from internal transcribed spacer clone libraries were clearly differentiated according to substrate and seasonal influences. In fresh leaves, diverse communities consisting of P. phragmitis and other reed-associated pathogens were generally dominant. Pythium phragmitis populations peaked in spring with the emergence of young reed shoots, and in autumn after extreme flooding events. In summer it decreased with falling water levels, changing water chemistry and rising temperatures. Another Pythium species was also highly abundant in fresh leaves throughout the year and might represent a new, as-yet uncultured reed pathogen. In dried leaves, reed pathogens were rarely detected, whereas saprophytic species occurred abundantly during all seasons. Saprophyte communities were less diverse, less temperature sensitive and independent of reed development. In general, our results provide evidence for the occurrence of highly specialized sets of reed-associated oomycetes in a natural reed ecosystem. Quantitative analyses (clone abundances and quantitative real-time PCR) revealed that the reed pathogen P. phragmitis is particularly affected by changing water levels, water chemistry and the stage of reed development.

Testing a Weather Generator for Downscaling Climate Change Projections over Switzerland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keller, Denise E.; Fischer, Andreas M.; Liniger, Mark A.; Appenzeller, Christof; Knutti, Reto

2016-04-01

Climate information provided by global or regional climate models (RCMs) are often too coarse and prone to substantial biases, making it impossible to directly use daily time-series of the RCMs for local assessments and in climate impact models. Hence, statistical downscaling becomes necessary. For the Swiss National Climate Change Initiative (CH2011), a delta-change approach was used to provide daily climate projections at the local scale. This data have the main limitations that changes in variability, extremes and in the temporal structure, such as changes in the wet day frequency, are not reproduced. The latter is a considerable downside of the delta-change approach for many impact applications. In this regard, stochastic weather generators (WGs) are an appealing technique that allow the simulation of multiple realizations of synthetic weather sequences consistent with the locally observed weather statistics and its future changes. Here, we analyse a Richardson-type weather generator (WG) as an alternative method to downscale daily precipitation, minimum and maximum temperature. The WG is calibrated for 26 Swiss stations and the reference period 1980-2009. It is perturbed with change factors derived from 12 RCMs (ENSEMBLES) to represent the climate of 2070-2099 assuming the SRES A1B emission scenario. The WG can be run in multi-site mode, making it especially attractive for impact-modelers that rely on a realistic spatial structure in downscaled time-series. The results from the WG are benchmarked against the original delta-change approach that applies mean additive or multiplicative adjustments to the observations. According to both downscaling methods, the results reveal area-wide mean temperature increases and a precipitation decrease in summer, consistent with earlier studies. For the summer drying, the WG indicates primarily a decrease in wet-day frequency and correspondingly an increase in mean dry spell length by around 18% - 40% at low-elevation stations. By construction, these potential changes cannot be represented by a delta-change approach. In winter, both methods project a shortening of the frost period (-30 to -60 days) and a decrease of snow days (-20% to -100%). The WG demonstrates though, that almost present-day conditions in snow-days could still occur in the future. As expected, both methods have difficulties in representing extremes. If users focus on changes in temporal sequences and need a large number of future realizations that are spatially consistent, it is recommended to use data from a WG instead of a delta-change approach.

Insects Extend the Consequences of a Warm, Dry Summer for Tree Growth in the Subsequent Summer near the Arctic Treeline in Alaska

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sullivan, P.; Sveinbjornsson, B.

2008-12-01

Treeline positions have important implications for surface energy budgets and carbon cycling in high latitude environments. Warming temperatures during the 20th century have been associated with both positive and negative growth trends in treeline white spruce. It has been suggested that negative growth trends may reflect the increasing importance of drought stress as a constraint on tree growth, although direct observations of water stress near the treeline are lacking. We set out to develop a more mechanistic understanding of environmental controls on gas exchange physiology and growth of white spruce near the Arctic treeline in Alaska. Our three-year study was carried out on a riverside terrace along the Agashashok River in Noatak National Preserve. The terrace is capped with a layer of sand/silt that grades from 10 cm depth at the upstream end to 45 cm depth at the downstream end. White spruce of similar size occur along the gradient at similar density, providing an opportunity to examine the role of parent material depth as a control on tree physiology and growth. Air temperatures during the 2006 growing season were near normal, there was no evidence of water stress and white spruce branch extension growth was near the long-term average. The 2007 growing season was exceptionally warm and dry. Stomatal closure was observed during mid-July throughout most of the diurnal cycle in trees growing on less than 30 cm of parent material. The warm, dry conditions and water-stress in the trees may have precipitated a major insect outbreak, which affected nearly all mature trees in the landscape. Branch extension growth in 2007 was reduced to 70 percent of that observed during the 2005 and 2006 growing seasons. Air temperatures during the 2008 growing season returned to near normal. There was no evidence of water stress, but the insect outbreak persisted and branch extension growth did not recover, remaining similar to that observed in 2007. Results of our study highlight the importance of extreme events in shaping the complexity of tree-insect-environment relations at the Arctic treeline and offer an important caution to studies that correlate tree growth with climate. Unfavorable climate conditions in one year may have consequences that persist beyond the return to favorable conditions.

Precipitation Indices Low Countries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Engelen, A. F. V.; Ynsen, F.; Buisman, J.; van der Schrier, G.

2009-09-01

Since 1995, KNMI published a series of books(1), presenting an annual reconstruction of weather and climate in the Low Countries, covering the period AD 763-present, or roughly, the last millennium. The reconstructions are based on the interpretation of documentary sources predominantly and comparison with other proxies and instrumental observations. The series also comprises a number of classifications. Amongst them annual classifications for winter and summer temperature and for winter and summer dryness-wetness. The classification of temperature have been reworked into peer reviewed (2) series (AD 1000-present) of seasonal temperatures and temperature indices, the so called LCT (Low Countries Temperature) series, now incorporated in the Millennium databases. Recently we started a study to convert the dryness-wetness classifications into a series of precipitation; the so called LCP (Low Countries Precipitation) series. A brief outline is given here of the applied methodology and preliminary results. The WMO definition for meteorological drought has been followed being that a period is called wet respectively dry when the amount of precipitation is considerable more respectively less than usual (normal). To gain a more quantitative insight for four locations, geographically spread over the Low Countries area (De Bilt, Vlissingen, Maastricht and Uccle), we analysed the statistics of daily precipitation series, covering the period 1900-present. This brought us to the following definition, valid for the Low Countries: A period is considered as (very) dry respectively (very) wet if over a continuous period of at least 60 days (~two months) cq 90 days (~three months) on at least two out of the four locations 50% less resp. 50% more than the normal amount for the location (based on the 1961-1990 normal period) has been measured. This results into the following classification into five drought classes hat could be applied to non instrumental observations: Very wet period (+2): Wide scale river flooding, marshy acres and meadows.-Farmers cope with poor harvests of hay, grains, fruit etc. resulting in famines.-Late grape harvests, poor yield quantity and quality of wine. Wet period (+1): High water levels cq discharges of major rivers, tributaries and brooks, local river floodings, marshy acres and meadows in the low lying areas.-Wearisome and hampered agriculture. Normal (0) Dry period (-1): Low water levels cq discharges of major rivers, tributaries and brooks. Some brooks may dry up.-Summer half year: local short of yield of grass, hay and other forage.-Summer half year: moor-, peat- and forest fires. Very dry period (-2): Very low water levels cq discharges of major rivers and tributaries. Brooks and wells dry up. Serious shortage of drinking water; especially in summer.-Major agricultural damage, shortage of water, mortality stock of cattle. Shortage of grain. Flour can not be produced due to water mills running out of water, shortage of bread, bread riots, famines.-Large scale forest and peat areas, resulting in serious air pollution. Town fires. By verifying the historical evidence on these criterions, a series of 5 step indices ranging from very dry to very wet for summer and winter half year of the Low Countries was obtained. Subsequently these indices series were compared with the instrumentally observed seasonal precipitation sums for De Bilt (1735-2008), which is considered to be representative for the Central Netherlands. For winter (Oct-March) and summer half year (Apr.-Sept.) the accumulated precipitation amounts are calculated; these amounts are approximately normally distributed. Based on this distribution, the cumulative frequency distribution is calculated. By tabulating the number of summers in the pre-instrumental period 1201-1750 for each of the drought classes, a distribution is calculated which is then related to the modern accumulated precipitation distribution. Assuming that the accumulated precipitation amount has not been below (above) the mean precipitation minus (plus) three standard deviations for the corresponding season, an accumulated precipitation amount which relates to each of the five drought classes in the classification can be estimated. (1) Buisman, J. , Van Engelen, A.F.V. (editor), Duizend jaar weer wind en water in de Lage Landen, Van Wijnen, Franeker (Netherlands), Vol. I763-1300, 1995, Vol. II, 1300-1450, 1996, Vol. III, 1450-1575, 1998, Vol. IV, 1575-1675, 2000, Vol. V, 1675-1750, 2006. (2) Shabalova, M.V., Van Engelen, A.F.V., Evaluation of a reconstruction of winter and summer temperatures in the Low Countries, AD 764-1998, Climatic Change 58: 219-242, 2003

Climatic Change and the Classroom: A Teaching Aid to Understanding.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sanders, C. Gerald

Equable climates with mild winters and summers are more likely to maintain snow or ice cover in high latitudes than extreme climates having colder winters and hotter summers. A simplified version of the Milankovitch cycles can be used to develop a model instructors can use in their classes to illustrate the orbital variations producing either…

University Summer Schools. Bulletin, 1922, No. 31

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Egbert, James C.

1922-01-01

During the past 25 years a very significant change has taken place in the attitude of those in control of educational institutions toward the so-called summer season--specifically the months of July and August--as deserving a place in the academic year or calendar. Formerly, the extreme heat so common in many parts of the country was regarded as…

Development of a Simple Framework to Assess Hydrological Extremes using Solely Climate Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Foulon, E.; Gagnon, P.; Rousseau, A. N.

2014-12-01

Extreme flow conditions such as droughts and floods are in general the direct consequences of short- to long-term weather/climate anomalies. For example, in southern Quebec, Canada, winter and summer 7-day low flows are due to summer and fall precipitations. Which prompts the question: is it possible to assess future extreme flow conditions from meteorological/climate indices or should we rely on the classical approach of using outputs of climate models as input to a hydrological model? The objective of this study is to assess six hydrological indices describing extreme flows at the watershed scale (Qmax, Qmin;7d, Qmin;30d for two seasons: winter and summer) using local climate indices without relying on the aforementioned classical approach. To establish the relationship between climate and hydrological indices, daily precipitations, minimum and maximum temperatures from 89 climate projections are used as inputs to a distributed hydrological model. River flows are simulated at the outlet of the Yamaska and Bécancour watersheds in Québec for the 1961-2100 periods. To identify the best predictors, hydrological indices are extracted from the flow series, and climate indices are computed for different time intervals (from a day up to four years). The difference between four-month, cumulative, climatic demand (P-ETP) explains 69% of the 7-day summer low flow during the calibration process. For both watersheds, preliminary findings indicate that the selected indices explain, on average, 38 and 60% of the variability of high- and low-flow indices, respectively. Overall, the results clearly illustrate that the change in the hydrological indices can be detected through the concurrent trends in the climate indices. The use of many climate projections ensures the relationships are not simulation-dependent and shows summer events are particularly at risk with increasing high flows and decreasing low flows. The development of a simple predictive tool to assess the impact of climate change on flows represents one of the major spin-off benefits of this study and may prooveto be useful to municipalities concerned with source water and flood management. Future work includes development of additional climate indices and application of the framework to more watersheds.

Extreme grape harvest data of Austria, Switzerland and France from A.D. 1523 to 2007 compared to corresponding instrumental/reconstructed temperature data and various documentary sources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maurer, C.; Hammerl, C.; Koch, E.; Hammerl, T.; Pokorny, E.

2011-11-01

The detection and quantification of extreme weather conditions in the past are important for correctly assessing the significance of today's extremes especially in the context of climate change. We specified extreme years by a synopsis of phenological data, temperature reconstructions and measurements and descriptive documentary sources starting in the 16th century. The spatial scale investigated is regional to interregional, covering Austria, Switzerland and north-eastern France. Thus, we defined a list of 36 extreme years (1536-2007), where two or more of several parameters (grape harvest data and/or mean temperatures) available at that time exceeded the two-sigma threshold with regard to a reference period of 105 years. In Western Europe, there were extreme spring to early summer temperatures and/or exceptional phenological observations on all three locations in 1542, 1718, 1811, 1822, 2003, 2006 and 2007. As only grape harvest data are on hand, our phenological dates can only indicate anomalous temperature conditions during spring and early summer, i.e. mean temperatures which significantly correlate to these phenological records. In addition to these data, we used independent documentary sources from the municipal archives of Retz, a town in Lower Austria, for affirming or amending these results.

Desvenlafaxine

MedlinePlus

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The Primacy of Multidecadal to Centennial Variability Over Late Holocene Forced Change of the Asian Monsoon on the Southern Tibetan Plateau

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Conroy, J. L.; Hudson, A. M.; Overpeck, J. T.; Liu, K. B.; Luo, W.; Cole, J. E.

2016-12-01

The nature of multidecadal to centennial variability of the Asian monsoon remains largely unknown. Here we use the sediment record from a closed-basin lake in southern Tibet, Ngamring Tso, to assess summer monsoon precipitation from 4100 cal yr BP to present. The first principal component of the Ngamring Tso grain size record correlates significantly with observed June-September precipitation. From CE 1940-2007, grain size decreased with increasing summer precipitation and increased with decreasing summer precipitation. Satellite images of Ngamring Tso suggest precipitation-induced changes in lake depth or area likely govern grain size variability. Prolonged periods of weak summer monsoon precipitation occurred from 2800-2600 cal yr BP, 2500-2300 cal yr BP, and 1600-400 cal yr BP. A trend toward increased summer precipitation began around 1000 cal yr BP, with above-average summer precipitation from 400 cal yr BP to present, peaking between 200-100 cal yr BP. Dry and wet periods are coincident with dry and wet periods in other south-central Tibetan lake sediment records and with regional proxies of the ISM and EASM, indicating south-central Tibet is influenced by both monsoon subsystems. 20th century precipitation variability in southern Tibet falls within the range of natural variability in the last 4100 years, and does not show a clear trend of increasing precipitation as projected by models. Instead, it appears that poorly understood internal modes of monsoon variability remained influential throughout the last 4100 years. Substantial multidecadal to centennial-scale variability will thus complicate our ability to project future anthropogenic changes in the region's monsoon precipitation.

Convection and the Soil-Moisture Precipitation Feedback

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schar, C.; Froidevaux, P.; Keller, M.; Schlemmer, L.; Langhans, W.; Schmidli, J.

2014-12-01

The soil moisture - precipitation (SMP) feedback is of key importance for climate and climate change. A positive SMP feedback tends to amplify the hydrological response to external forcings (and thereby fosters precipitation and drought extremes), while a negative SMP feedback tends to moderate the influence of external forcings (and thereby stabilizes the hydrological cycle). The sign of the SMP feedback is poorly constrained by the current literature. Theoretical, modeling and observational studies partly disagree, and have suggested both negative and positive feedback loops. Can wet soil anomalies indeed result in either an increase or a decrease of precipitation (positive or negative SMP feedback, respectively)? Here we investigate the local SMP feedback using real-case and idealized convection-resolving simulations. An idealized simulation strategy is developed, which is able to replicate both signs of the feedback loop, depending on the environmental parameters. The mechanism relies on horizontal soil moisture variations, which may develop and intensify spontaneously. The positive expression of the feedback is associated with the initiation of convection over dry soil patches, but the convective cells then propagate over wet patches, where they strengthen and preferentially precipitate. The negative feedback may occur when the wind profile is too weak to support the propagation of convective features from dry to wet areas. Precipitation is then generally weaker and falls preferentially over dry patches. The results highlight the role of the mid-tropospheric flow in determining the sign of the feedback. A key element of the positive feedback is the exploitation of both low convective inhibition (CIN) over dry patches (for the initiation of convection), and high CAPE over wet patches (for the generation of precipitation). The results of this study will also be discussed in relation to climate change scenarios that exhibit large biases in surface temperature and interannual variability over mid-latitude summer climates, both over Europe and North America. It is argued that parameterized convection may contribute towards such biases by overemphasizing a positive SMP feedback.

a Process-Based Drought Early Warning Indicator for Supporting State Drought Mitigation Decision

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fu, R.; Fernando, D. N.; Pu, B.

2014-12-01

Drought prone states such as Texas requires creditable and actionable drought early warning ranging from seasonal to multi-decadal scales. Such information cannot be simply extracted from the available climate prediction and projections because of their large uncertainties at regional scales and unclear connections to the needs of the decision makers. In particular, current dynamic seasonal predictions and climate projections, such as those produced by the NOAA national multi-models ensemble experiment (NMME) and the IPCC AR5 (CMIP5) models, are much more reliable for winter and spring than for the summer season for the US Southern Plains. They also show little connection between the droughts in winter/spring and those in summer, in contrast to the observed dry memory from spring to summer over that region. To mitigate the weakness of dynamic prediction/projections, we have identified three key processes behind the spring-to-summer dry memory through observational studies. Based on these key processes and related fields, we have developed a multivariate principle component statistical model to provide a probabilistic summer drought early warning indicator, using the observed or predicted climate conditions in winter and spring on seasonal scale and climate projection for the mid-21stcentury. The summer drought early warning indicator is constructed in a similar way to the NOAA probabilistic predictions that are familiar to water resource managers. The indicator skill is assessed using the standard NOAA climate prediction assessment tools, i.e., the two alternative forced choice (2AFC) and the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC). Comparison with long-term observations suggest that this summer drought early warning indicator is able to capture nearly all the strong summer droughts and outperform the dynamic prediction in this regard over the US Southern Plains. This early warning indicator has been used by the state water agency in May 2014 in briefing the state drought preparedness council and will be provided to stake holders through the website of the Texas state water planning agency. We will also present the results of our ongoing work on using NASA satellite based soil moisture and vegetation stress measurements to further improve the reliability of the summer drought early warning indicator.

Have precipitation extremes and annual totals been increasing in the world's dry regions over the last 60 years?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sippel, Sebastian; Zscheischler, Jakob; Heimann, Martin; Lange, Holger; Mahecha, Miguel D.; van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan; Otto, Friederike E. L.; Reichstein, Markus

2017-01-01

Daily precipitation extremes and annual totals have increased in large parts of the global land area over the past decades. These observations are consistent with theoretical considerations of a warming climate. However, until recently these trends have not been shown to consistently affect dry regions over land. A recent study, published by Donat et al. (2016), now identified significant increases in annual-maximum daily extreme precipitation (Rx1d) and annual precipitation totals (PRCPTOT) in dry regions. Here, we revisit the applied methods and explore the sensitivity of changes in precipitation extremes and annual totals to alternative choices of defining a dry region (i.e. in terms of aridity as opposed to precipitation characteristics alone). We find that (a) statistical artifacts introduced by data pre-processing based on a time-invariant reference period lead to an overestimation of the reported trends by up to 40 %, and that (b) the reported trends of globally aggregated extremes and annual totals are highly sensitive to the definition of a dry region of the globe. For example, using the same observational dataset, accounting for the statistical artifacts, and based on different aridity-based dryness definitions, we find a reduction in the positive trend of Rx1d from the originally reported +1.6 % decade-1 to +0.2 to +0.9 % decade-1 (period changes for 1981-2010 averages relative to 1951-1980 are reduced to -1.32 to +0.97 % as opposed to +4.85 % in the original study). If we include additional but less homogenized data to cover larger regions, the global trend increases slightly (Rx1d: +0.4 to +1.1 % decade-1), and in this case we can indeed confirm (partly) significant increases in Rx1d. However, these globally aggregated estimates remain uncertain as considerable gaps in long-term observations in the Earth's arid and semi-arid regions remain. In summary, adequate data pre-processing and accounting for uncertainties regarding the definition of dryness are crucial to the quantification of spatially aggregated trends in precipitation extremes in the world's dry regions. In view of the high relevance of the question to many potentially affected stakeholders, we call for a well-reflected choice of specific data processing methods and the inclusion of alternative dryness definitions to guarantee that communicated results related to climate change be robust.

High Resolution Hydro-climatological Projections for Western Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Erler, Andre Richard

Accurate identification of the impact of global warming on water resources and hydro-climatic extremes represents a significant challenge to the understanding of climate change on the regional scale. Here an analysis of hydro-climatic changes in western Canada is presented, with specific focus on the Fraser and Athabasca River basins and on changes in hydro-climatic extremes. The analysis is based on a suite of simulations designed to characterize internal variability, as well as model uncertainty. A small ensemble of Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1) simulations was employed to generate global climate projections, which were downscaled to 10 km resolution using the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF V3.4.1) with several sets of physical parameterizations. Downscaling was performed for a historical validation period and a mid- and end-21st-century projection period, using the RCP8.5 greenhouse gas trajectory. Daily station observations and monthly gridded datasets were used for validation. Changes in hydro-climatic extremes are characterized using Extreme Value Analysis. A novel method of aggregating data from climatologically similar stations was employed to increase the statistical power of the analysis. Changes in mean and extreme precipitation are found to differ strongly between seasons and regions, but (relative) changes in extremes generally follow changes in the (seasonal) mean. At the end of the 21st century, precipitation and precipitation extremes are projected to increase by 30% at the coast in fall and land-inwards in winter, while the projected increase in summer precipitation is smaller and changes in extremes are often not statistically significant. Reasons for the differences between seasons, the role of precipitation recycling in atmospheric water transport, and the sensitivity to physics parameterizations are discussed. Major changes are projected for the Fraser River basin, including earlier snowmelt and a 50% reduction in peak runoff. Combined with higher evapotranspiration, a significant increase in late summer drought risk is likely, but increasing fall precipitation might also increase the risk of moderate flooding. In the Athabasca River basin, increasing winter precipitation and snowmelt is balanced by increasing evapotranspiration in summer and no significant change in flood or drought risk is projected.

Regional warming of hot extremes accelerated by surface energy fluxes consistent with drying soils

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Donat, M.; Pitman, A.; Seneviratne, S. I.

2017-12-01

Strong regional differences exist in how hot temperature extremes increase under global warming. Using an ensemble of coupled climate models, we examine the regional warming rates of hot extremes relative to annual average warming rates in the same regions. We identify hotspots of accelerated warming of model-simulated hot extremes in Europe, North America, South America and Southeast China. These hotspots indicate where the warm tail of a distribution of temperatures increases faster than the average and are robust across most CMIP5 models. Exploring the conditions on the specific day the hot extreme occurs demonstrates the hotspots are explained by changes in the surface energy fluxes consistent with drying soils. Furthermore, in these hotspot regions we find a relationship between the temperature - heat flux correlation under current climate conditions and the magnitude of future projected changes in hot extremes, pointing to a potential emergent constraint for simulations of future hot extremes. However, the model-simulated accelerated warming of hot extremes appears inconsistent with observations of the past 60 years, except over Europe. The simulated acceleration of hot extremes may therefore be unreliable, a result that necessitates a re-evaluation of how climate models resolve the relevant terrestrial processes.

The effect of urban and rural habitats and resource type on activity budgets of commensal rhesus macaques (Macaca mulatta) in Bangladesh.

PubMed

Jaman, M Firoj; Huffman, Michael A

2013-01-01

Macaques are characterized by their wide distribution and ability to adapt to a variety of habitats. Activity budgets are affected by habitat type, season, and food availability in relation to differing age-sex class and individual requirements. We conducted a comparative study on two commensal rhesus groups, one living in a rural village and the other in the center of urban Dhaka, Bangladesh. The study was conducted in three different seasons between 2007 and 2009 in order to evaluate how habitat type and season affects their behavioral activities. Differences in food type and its availability between these two habitats were mainly responsible for the variations in activity budgets between groups. Feeding time in the rural group was significantly longer than that in the urban group. In contrast, grooming and object manipulation/play were significantly greater in the urban than the rural group. Seasonal variations in all major behaviors were significantly affected by group, with more time spent feeding in summer than in winter/dry season, and more time spent grooming and moving in winter/dry season than summer in the rural group. In contrast, time spent resting was greater in the monsoon and summer seasons than the winter/dry season in the urban group. Grooming time was greater in the winter/dry season than the monsoon and summer seasons. In both groups, immature of both sexes spent significantly more time on feeding and object manipulation/playing and less time resting than adults. Adult females spent more time grooming than males and immatures, of both sexes, in both groups. Moreover, the rural group spent most of their time feeding on garden/crop produce and wild plant food resources, while the urban group spent more time feeding on provisioned foods. These results showed that differences in the activity budgets of rural and urban dwelling macaques were due largely to the differences in available food resources. Commensal rhesus macaques show a high degree of behavioral flexibility in response to habitat and resource variability, and knowledge of these differences is important for the conservation and management of highly commensal primates.

Impact of Calibrated Land Surface Model Parameters on the Accuracy and Uncertainty of Land-Atmosphere Coupling in WRF Simulations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Santanello, Joseph A., Jr.; Kumar, Sujay V.; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.; Harrison, Ken; Zhou, Shujia

2012-01-01

Land-atmosphere (L-A) interactions play a critical role in determining the diurnal evolution of both planetary boundary layer (PBL) and land surface temperature and moisture budgets, as well as controlling feedbacks with clouds and precipitation that lead to the persistence of dry and wet regimes. Recent efforts to quantify the strength of L-A coupling in prediction models have produced diagnostics that integrate across both the land and PBL components of the system. In this study, we examine the impact of improved specification of land surface states, anomalies, and fluxes on coupled WRF forecasts during the summers of extreme dry (2006) and wet (2007) land surface conditions in the U.S. Southern Great Plains. The improved land initialization and surface flux parameterizations are obtained through the use of a new optimization and uncertainty estimation module in NASA's Land Information System (LIS-OPT/UE), whereby parameter sets are calibrated in the Noah land surface model and classified according to a land cover and soil type mapping of the observation sites to the full model domain. The impact of calibrated parameters on the a) spinup of the land surface used as initial conditions, and b) heat and moisture states and fluxes of the coupled WRF simulations are then assessed in terms of ambient weather and land-atmosphere coupling along with measures of uncertainty propagation into the forecasts. In addition, the sensitivity of this approach to the period of calibration (dry, wet, average) is investigated. Finally, tradeoffs of computational tractability and scientific validity, and the potential for combining this approach with satellite remote sensing data are also discussed.

Mid-late Holocene climatic changes in the Southwestern Iberian shelf

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gomes, S.; Naughton, F.; Rodrigues, T.; Drago, T.; Sanchez-Goñi, M.; Freitas, C.

2012-04-01

Vegetation (pollen analysis) and alkenone-derived Sea Surface Temperature (SST) reconstructions from a south western Iberian shelf core (POPEI VC2B) (36°53'12,99'' N, 8°03'57,98'' W) show orbital and suborbital climate variability at extremely high resolution for the last 6000 years in this region. In particular, the mid-late Holocene is marked by a long-term cooling revealed by the gradual decrease of arboreal pollen (AP) percentages and SST which parallels the general decreasing trend of the δ18-O isotope composition recorded in Greenland ice records and the decrease of the mid-latitudes summer insolation. The short-term vegetation changes, reflecting millennial scale climatic variability, are clearly identified in the POPEI VC2B over the last 6000 years. In particular, the basement of this record is marked by the presence of semi-desert plants (Chenopodiaceae, Artemisia and Ephedra) reflecting dry conditions. These particular dry conditions have been detected elsewhere in the southern Iberian Peninsula and in North African records. Following the particularly dry period, there is a decline of semi-desert plants and an increase of Ericaceae and Pinus associated with establishment of an incipient forest of Quercus deciduous type reflecting temperate and humid conditions. This period was followed by a decrease of arboreal pollen percentages, suggesting a relative climate cooling. Finally, the last 2500/2000 years, are marked by the presence of anthropogenic associations (including Cerealia-type, Plantago lanceolata-coronopus type, and Olea) and are characterized by several vegetation and climate oscillations associated with the Roman Period (RP), the Dark Ages (DA), the Medieval Climatic Anomaly (MCA), and the Little Ice Age (LIA).

Quantitative PCR Profiling of Escherichia coli in Livestock Feces Reveals Increased Population Resilience Relative to Culturable Counts under Temperature Extremes.

PubMed

Oliver, David M; Bird, Clare; Burd, Emmy; Wyman, Michael

2016-09-06

The relationship between culturable counts (CFU) and quantitative PCR (qPCR) cell equivalent counts of Escherichia coli in dairy feces exposed to different environmental conditions and temperature extremes was investigated. Fecal samples were collected in summer and winter from dairy cowpats held under two treatments: field-exposed versus polytunnel-protected. A significant correlation in quantified E. coli was recorded between the qPCR and culture-based methods (r = 0.82). Evaluation of the persistence profiles of E. coli over time revealed no significant difference in the E. coli numbers determined as either CFU or gene copies during the summer for the field-exposed cowpats, whereas significantly higher counts were observed by qPCR for the polytunnel-protected cowpats, which were exposed to higher ambient temperatures. In winter, the qPCR returned significantly higher counts of E. coli for the field-exposed cowpats, thus representing a reversal of the findings from the summer sampling campaign. Results from this study suggest that with increasing time post-defecation and with the onset of challenging environmental conditions, such as extremes in temperature, culture-based counts begin to underestimate the true resilience of viable E. coli populations in livestock feces. This is important not only in the long term as the Earth changes in response to climate-change drivers but also in the short term during spells of extremely cold or hot weather.

Future Projection of Summer Extreme Precipitation from High Resolution Multi-RCMs over East Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Gayoung; Park, Changyong; Cha, Dong-Hyun; Lee, Dong-Kyou; Suh, Myoung-Seok; Ahn, Joong-Bae; Min, Seung-Ki; Hong, Song-You; Kang, Hyun-Suk

2017-04-01

Recently, the frequency and intensity of natural hazards have been increasing due to human-induced climate change. Because most damages of natural hazards over East Asia have been related to extreme precipitation events, it is important to estimate future change in extreme precipitation characteristics caused by climate change. We investigate future changes in extremal values of summer precipitation simulated by five regional climate models participating in the CORDEX-East Asia project (i.e., HadGEM3-RA, RegCM4, MM5, WRF, and GRIMs) over East Asia. 100-year return value calculated from the generalized extreme value (GEV) parameters is analysed as an indicator of extreme intensity. In the future climate, the mean values as well as the extreme values of daily precipitation tend to increase over land region. The increase of 100-year return value can be significantly associated with the changes in the location (intensity) and scale (variability) GEV parameters for extreme precipitation. It is expected that the results of this study can be used as fruitful references when making the policy of disaster management. Acknowledgements The research was supported by the Ministry of Public Safety and Security of Korean government and Development program under grant MPSS-NH-2013-63 and the National Research Foundation of Korea Grant funded by the Ministry of Science, ICT and Future Planning of Korea (NRF-2016M3C4A7952637) for its support and assistant in completion of the study.

The dynamics of the Snowball Earth Hadley circulation for off-equatorial and seasonally varying insolation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Voigt, A.

2013-11-01

I study the Hadley circulation of a completely ice-covered Snowball Earth through simulations with a comprehensive atmosphere general circulation model. Because the Snowball Earth atmosphere is an example of a dry atmosphere, these simulations allow me to test to what extent dry theories and idealized models capture the dynamics of realistic dry Hadley circulations. Perpetual off-equatorial as well as seasonally varying insolation is used, extending a previous study for perpetual on-equatorial (equinox) insolation. Vertical diffusion of momentum, representing the momentum transport of dry convection, is fundamental to the momentum budgets of both the winter and summer cells. In the zonal budget, it is the primary process balancing the Coriolis force. In the meridional budget, it mixes meridional momentum between the upper and the lower branch and thereby decelerates the circulation. Because of the latter, the circulation intensifies by a factor of three when vertical diffusion of momentum is suppressed. For seasonally varying insolation, the circulation undergoes rapid transitions from the weak summer into the strong winter regime. Consistent with previous studies in idealized models, these transitions result from a mean-flow feedback, because of which they are insensitive to the treatment of vertical diffusion of momentum. Overall, the results corroborate previous findings for perpetual on-equatorial insolation. They demonstrate that descriptions of realistic dry Hadley circulations, in particular their strength, need to incorporate the vertical momentum transport by dry convection, a process that is neglected in most dry theories and idealized models. An improved estimate of the strength of the Snowball Earth Hadley circulation will also help to better constrain the climate of a possible Neoproterozoic Snowball Earth and its deglaciation threshold.

The dynamics of the Snowball Earth Hadley circulation for off-equatorial and seasonally-varying insolation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Voigt, A.

2013-08-01

I study the Hadley circulation of a completely ice-covered Snowball Earth through simulations with a comprehensive atmosphere general circulation model. Because the Snowball Earth atmosphere is an example of a dry atmosphere, these simulations allow me to test to what extent dry theories and idealized models capture the dynamics of dry Hadley circulations. Perpetual off-equatorial as well as seasonally-varying insolation is used, extending a previous study for perpetual on-equatorial (equinox) insolation. Vertical diffusion of momentum, representing the momentum transport of dry convection, is fundamental to the momentum budgets of both the winter and summer cells. In the zonal budget, it is the primary process balancing the Coriolis force. In the meridional budget, it mixes meridional momentum between the upper and the lower branch and thereby decelerates the circulation. Because of the latter, the circulation intensifies by a factor of three when vertical diffusion of momentum is suppressed. For seasonally-varying insolation, the circulation undergoes rapid transitions from the weak summer into the strong winter regime. Consistent with previous studies in idealized models, these transitions result from a mean-flow feedback, because of which they are insensitive to the treatment of vertical diffusion of momentum. Overall, the results corroborate previous findings for perpetual on-equatorial insolation. They demonstrate that an appropriate description of dry Hadley circulations, in particular their strength, needs to incorporate the vertical momentum transport by dry convection, a process that is neglected in most dry theories and idealized models. An improved estimate of the strength of the Snowball Earth Hadley circulation will also help to better constrain the climate of a possible Neoproterozoic Snowball Earth and its deglaciation threshold.

Simulating the effect of climate extremes on groundwater flow through a lakebed.

PubMed

Virdi, Makhan L; Lee, Terrie M; Swancar, Amy; Niswonger, Richard G

2013-03-01

Groundwater exchanges with lakes resulting from cyclical wet and dry climate extremes maintain lake levels in the environment in ways that are not well understood, in part because they remain difficult to simulate. To better understand the atypical groundwater interactions with lakes caused by climatic extremes, an original conceptual approach is introduced using MODFLOW-2005 and a kinematic-wave approximation to variably saturated flow that allows lake size and position in the basin to change while accurately representing the daily lake volume and three-dimensional variably saturated groundwater flow responses in the basin. Daily groundwater interactions are simulated for a calibrated lake basin in Florida over a decade that included historic wet and dry departures from the average rainfall. The divergent climate extremes subjected nearly 70% of the maximum lakebed area and 75% of the maximum shoreline perimeter to both groundwater inflow and lake leakage. About half of the lakebed area subject to flow reversals also went dry. A flow-through pattern present for 73% of the decade caused net leakage from the lake 80% of the time. Runoff from the saturated lake margin offset the groundwater deficit only about half of that time. A centripetal flow pattern present for 6% of the decade was important for maintaining the lake stage and generated 30% of all net groundwater inflow. Pumping effects superimposed on dry climate extremes induced the least frequent but most cautionary flow pattern with leakage from over 90% of the actual lakebed area. Published 2012. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Climate Extreme Events over Northern Eurasia in Changing Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bulygina, O.; Korshunova, N. N.; Razuvaev, V. N.; Groisman, P. Y.

2014-12-01

During the period of widespread instrumental observations in Northern Eurasia, the annual surface air temperature has increased by 1.5°C. Close to the north in the Arctic Ocean, the late summer sea ice extent has decreased by 40% providing a near-infinite source of water vapor for the dry Arctic atmosphere in the early cold season months. The contemporary sea ice changes are especially visible in the Eastern Hemisphere All these factors affect the change extreme events. Daily and sub-daily data of 940 stations to analyze variations in the space time distribution of extreme temperatures, precipitation, and wind over Russia were used. Changing in number of days with thaw over Russia was described. The total seasonal numbers of days, when daily surface air temperatures (wind, precipitation) were found to be above (below) selected thresholds, were used as indices of climate extremes. Changing in difference between maximum and minimum temperature (DTR) may produce a variety of effects on biological systems. All values falling within the intervals ranged from the lowest percentile to the 5th percentile and from the 95th percentile to the highest percentile for the time period of interest were considered as daily extremes. The number of days, N, when daily temperatures (wind, precipitation, DTR) were within the above mentioned intervals, was determined for the seasons of each year. Linear trends in the number of days were calculated for each station and for quasi-homogeneous climatic regions. Regional analysis of extreme events was carried out using quasi-homogeneous climatic regions. Maps (climatology, trends) are presented mostly for visualization purposes. Differences in regional characteristics of extreme events are accounted for over a large extent of the Russian territory and variety of its physical and geographical conditions. The number of days with maximum temperatures higher than the 95% percentile has increased in most of Russia and decreased in Siberia in spring and autumn. Reducing the number of days with extremely low air temperatures dominated in all seasons. At the same time, the number of days with abnormally low air temperatures has increased in Middle Volga region and south of Western Siberia. In most parts of European Russia observed increase in the number of days with heavy snowfalls.

Association of weather and air pollution interactions on daily mortality in 12 Canadian cities.

PubMed

Vanos, J K; Cakmak, S; Kalkstein, L S; Yagouti, Abderrahmane

It has been well established that both meteorological attributes and air pollution concentrations affect human health outcomes. We examined all cause nonaccident mortality relationships for 28 years (1981-2008) in relation to air pollution and synoptic weather type (encompassing air mass) data in 12 Canadian cities. This study first determines the likelihood of summertime extreme air pollution events within weather types using spatial synoptic classification. Second, it examines the modifying effect of weather types on the relative risk of mortality (RR) due to daily concentrations of air pollution (nitrogen dioxide, ozone, sulfur dioxide, and particulate matter <2.5 μm). We assess both single- and two-pollutant interactions to determine dependent and independent pollutant effects using the relatively new time series technique of distributed lag nonlinear modeling (DLNM). Results display dry tropical (DT) and moist tropical plus (MT+) weathers to result in a fourfold and twofold increased likelihood, respectively, of an extreme pollution event (top 5 % of pollution concentrations throughout the 28 years) occurring. We also demonstrate statistically significant effects of single-pollutant exposure on mortality ( p  < 0.05) to be dependent on summer weather type, where stronger results occur in dry moderate (fair weather) and DT or MT+ weather types. The overall average single-effect RR increases due to pollutant exposure within DT and MT+ weather types are 14.9 and 11.9 %, respectively. Adjusted exposures (two-way pollutant effect estimates) generally results in decreased RR estimates, indicating that the pollutants are not independent. Adjusting for ozone significantly lowers 67 % of the single-pollutant RR estimates and reduces model variability, which demonstrates that ozone significantly controls a portion of the mortality signal from the model. Our findings demonstrate the mortality risks of air pollution exposure to differ by weather type, with increased accuracy obtained when accounting for interactive effects through adjustment for dependent pollutants using a DLNM.

Light-stress avoidance mechanisms in a Sphagnum-dominated wet coastal Arctic tundra ecosystem in Alaska.

PubMed

Zona, D; Oechel, Walter C; Richards, James H; Hastings, Steven; Kopetz, Irene; Ikawa, Hiroki; Oberbauer, Steven

2011-03-01

The Arctic experiences a high-radiation environment in the summer with 24-hour daylight for more than two months. Damage to plants and ecosystem metabolism can be muted by overcast conditions common in much of the Arctic. However, with climate change, extreme dry years and clearer skies could lead to the risk of increased photoxidation and photoinhibition in Arctic primary producers. Mosses, which often exceed the NPP of vascular plants in Arctic areas, are often understudied. As a result, the effect of specific environmental factors, including light, on these growth forms is poorly understood. Here, we investigated net ecosystem exchange (NEE) at the ecosystem scale, net Sphagnum CO2 exchange (NSE), and photoinhibition to better understand the impact of light on carbon exchange from a moss-dominated coastal tundra ecosystem during the summer season 2006. Sphagnum photosynthesis showed photoinhibition early in the season coupled with low ecosystem NEE. However, later in the season, Sphagnum maintained a significant CO2 uptake, probably for the development of subsurface moss layers protected from strong radiation. We suggest that the compact canopy structure of Sphagnum reduces light penetration to the subsurface layers of the moss mat and thereby protects the active photosynthetic tissues from damage. This stress avoidance mechanism allowed Sphagnum to constitute a significant percentage (up to 60%) of the ecosystem net daytime CO2 uptake at the end of the growing season despite the high levels of radiation experienced.

Increased tree-ring network density reveals more precise estimations of sub-regional hydroclimate variability and climate dynamics in the Midwest, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maxwell, Justin T.; Harley, Grant L.

2017-08-01

Understanding the historic variability in the hydroclimate provides important information on possible extreme dry or wet periods that in turn inform water management plans. Tree rings have long provided historical context of hydroclimate variability of the U.S. However, the tree-ring network used to create these countrywide gridded reconstructions is sparse in certain locations, such as the Midwest. Here, we increase ( n = 20) the spatial resolution of the tree-ring network in southern Indiana and compare a summer (June-August) Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) reconstruction to existing gridded reconstructions of PDSI for this region. We find both droughts and pluvials that were previously unknown that rival the most intense PDSI values during the instrumental period. Additionally, historical drought occurred in Indiana that eclipsed instrumental conditions with regard to severity and duration. During the period 1962-2004 CE, we find that teleconnections of drought conditions through the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation have a strong influence ( r = -0.60, p < 0.01) on secondary tree growth in this region for the late spring-early summer season. These findings highlight the importance of continuing to increase the spatial resolution of the tree-ring network used to infer past climate dynamics to capture the sub-regional spatial variability. Increasing the spatial resolution of the tree-ring network for a given region can better identify sub-regional variability, improve the accuracy of regional tree-ring PDSI reconstructions, and provide better information for climatic teleconnections.

Causes of model dry and warm bias over central U.S. and impact on climate projections.

PubMed

Lin, Yanluan; Dong, Wenhao; Zhang, Minghua; Xie, Yuanyu; Xue, Wei; Huang, Jianbin; Luo, Yong

2017-10-12

Climate models show a conspicuous summer warm and dry bias over the central United States. Using results from 19 climate models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), we report a persistent dependence of warm bias on dry bias with the precipitation deficit leading the warm bias over this region. The precipitation deficit is associated with the widespread failure of models in capturing strong rainfall events in summer over the central U.S. A robust linear relationship between the projected warming and the present-day warm bias enables us to empirically correct future temperature projections. By the end of the 21st century under the RCP8.5 scenario, the corrections substantially narrow the intermodel spread of the projections and reduce the projected temperature by 2.5 K, resulting mainly from the removal of the warm bias. Instead of a sharp decrease, after this correction the projected precipitation is nearly neutral for all scenarios.Climate models repeatedly show a warm and dry bias over the central United States, but the origin of this bias remains unclear. Here the authors associate this bias to precipitation deficits in models and after applying a correction, projected precipitation in this region shows no significant changes.

Effect of seasonal and geographical differences on skin and effect of treatment with an osmoprotectant: Sorbitol.

PubMed

Muizzuddin, Neelam; Ingrassia, Michael; Marenus, Kenneth D; Maes, Daniel H; Mammone, Thomas

2013-01-01

Human skin maintains an optimal permeability barrier function in a terrestrial environment that varies considerably in humidity. Cells cultured under hyperosmotic stress accumulate osmolytes including sorbitol. Epidermal keratinocytes experience similar high osmolality under dry environmental conditions because of increased transepidermal water loss (TEWL) and concomitant drying of the skin. This study was designed to determine if epidermal keratinocytes, in vitro, could be protected from high osmotic stress, with the exogenous addition of sorbitol. In addition, we evaluated the effect of a formulation containing topical sorbitol on skin barrier and moisturization of subjects living in arid and humid regions in summer as well as in winter. Results from in vitro experiments showed that 50 mM sorbitol protected epidermal keratinocytes from osmotic toxicity induced by sodium chloride. Clinical studies indicated that skin chronically exposed to hot, dry environment appeared to exhibit stronger skin barrier and a lower baseline TEWL. In addition, skin barrier was stronger in summer than in winter. Sorbitol exhibited significant improvement in both barrier repair and moisturization, especially in individuals subjected to arid environmental conditions.

Two case studies on NARCCAP precipitation extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weller, Grant B.; Cooley, Daniel; Sain, Stephan R.; Bukovsky, Melissa S.; Mearns, Linda O.

2013-09-01

We introduce novel methodology to examine the ability of six regional climate models (RCMs) in the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) ensemble to simulate past extreme precipitation events seen in the observational record over two different regions and seasons. Our primary objective is to examine the strength of daily correspondence of extreme precipitation events between observations and the output of both the RCMs and the driving reanalysis product. To explore this correspondence, we employ methods from multivariate extreme value theory. These methods require that we account for marginal behavior, and we first model and compare climatological quantities which describe tail behavior of daily precipitation for both the observations and model output before turning attention to quantifying the correspondence of the extreme events. Daily precipitation in a West Coast region of North America is analyzed in two seasons, and it is found that the simulated extreme events from the reanalysis-driven NARCCAP models exhibit strong daily correspondence to extreme events in the observational record. Precipitation over a central region of the United States is examined, and we find some daily correspondence between winter extremes simulated by reanalysis-driven NARCCAP models and those seen in observations, but no such correspondence is found for summer extremes. Furthermore, we find greater discrepancies among the NARCCAP models in the tail characteristics of the distribution of daily summer precipitation over this region than seen in precipitation over the West Coast region. We find that the models which employ spectral nudging exhibit stronger tail dependence to observations in the central region.

Experimental evaluation of drying characteristics of sewage sludge and hazelnut shell mixtures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pehlivan, Hüseyin; Ateş, Asude; Özdemir, Mustafa

2016-11-01

In this study the drying behavior of organic and agricultural waste mixtures has been experimentally investigated. The usability of sewage sludge as an organic waste and hazelnut shell as an agricultural waste was assessed in different mixture range. The paper discusses the applicability of these mixtures as a recovery energy source. Moisture content of mixtures has been calculated in laboratory and plant conditions. Indoor and outdoor solar sludge drying plants were constructed in pilot scale for experimental purposes. Dry solids and climatic conditions were constantly measured. A total more than 140 samples including for drying has been carried out to build up results. Indoor and outdoor weather conditions are taken into consideration in winter and summer. The most effective drying capacity is obtained in mixture of 20 % hazelnut shell and 80 % sewage sludge.

Extreme late-summer drought causes neutral annual carbon balance in southwestern ponderosa pine forests and grasslands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kolb, Thomas; Dore, Sabina; Montes-Helu, Mario

2013-03-01

We assessed the impacts of extreme late-summer drought on carbon balance in a semi-arid forest region in Arizona. To understand drought impacts over extremes of forest cover, we measured net ecosystem production (NEP), gross primary production (GPP), and total ecosystem respiration (TER) with eddy covariance over five years (2006-10) at an undisturbed ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) forest and at a former forest converted to grassland by intense burning. Drought shifted annual NEP from a weak source of carbon to the atmosphere to a neutral carbon balance at the burned site and from a carbon sink to neutral at the undisturbed site. Carbon fluxes were particularly sensitive to drought in August. Drought shifted August NEP at the undisturbed site from sink to source because the reduction of GPP (70%) exceeded the reduction of TER (35%). At the burned site drought shifted August NEP from weak source to neutral because the reduction of TER (40%) exceeded the reduction of GPP (20%). These results show that the lack of forest recovery after burning and the exposure of undisturbed forests to late-summer drought reduce carbon sink strength and illustrate the high vulnerability of forest carbon sink strength in the southwest US to predicted increases in intense burning and precipitation variability.

Influence of drought on radial stem growth of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) in an inner Alpine environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oberhuber, Walter; Gruber, Andreas

2010-05-01

Radial stem growth indices of trees are known to be valuable long-term measures of overall tree vigor and are frequently applied to identify the climatic factors limiting tree growth. Based on several tree-ring studies conducted within inner-Alpine dry valleys, it is well established that growth of Pinus sylvestris is primarily limited by spring precipitation (April through June) and severe drought results in abrupt growth reductions and increased tree mortality. However, the record breaking heat-wave in summer 2003 had only minor impact on growth of drought exposed coniferous trees within the dry inner-Alpine valley of the Inn river (750 m a.s.l., Tyrol, Austria), where mean annual precipitation and temperature amount to 716 mm and 7.3 °C, respectively. To examine short-term influences of drought stress on growth processes more closely, we determined the influence of meteorological factors (air temperature, precipitation) and soil moisture on intra-annual dynamics of tree ring development and stem radial growth in Pinus sylvestris at two sites differing in soil moisture characteristics (xeric and dry-mesic). Radial stem development was continuously followed during 2007 and 2008 by band dendrometers and repeated micro-sampling of the developing tree ring of mature trees. In 2007, when air temperature at the beginning of the growing season in April exceeded long-term mean by 6.4 °C, cambial cell division started in early April at both study plots. A delayed onset of cambial activity of c. 2 wk was found in 2008, when average climate conditions prevailed in spring, suggesting that resumption of cambial cell division after winter dormancy is temperature-controlled. Wood formation stopped c. 4 wk earlier at the xeric compared to dry-mesic site in both study years, which indicates a strong influence of drought stress on cell differentiation processes. This is supported by radial widths of earlywood cells, which were found to be significantly narrower at the xeric compared to the dry-mesic site (P < 0.05). Furthermore, early culmination of radial growth was found at both study plots around mid-May, prior to occurrence of more favourable climatic conditions, i.e. an increase in precipitation during summer. We suggest that early achievement of maximum growth rate in spring can be regarded as an adaptation to cope with extreme environmental conditions prevailing within the study area, which require an early switch of carbon allocation to belowground organs to ensure adequate resource acquisition on the drought prone substrate. Sustainably reduced tree vigor, higher tree mortality and strikingly reduced stem growth of shallowly rooted trees support our reasoning. In conclusion, our results suggest that in Pinus sylvestris exposed to dry inner-Alpine climate (i) a temperature threshold rather than water availability triggers onset of aboveground stem growth in spring, and (ii) recurring drought periods combined with nutrient deficiency of shallow, stony soils cause elevated carbohydrate requirements of the root system and associated symbiotic mycorrhizal hyphae to maintain the capability of absorbing scarce water und nutrient resources at the expense of aboveground stem growth.

Modelling extreme dry spells in the Mediterranean region in connection with atmospheric circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tramblay, Yves; Hertig, Elke

2018-04-01

Long droughts periods can affect the Mediterranean region during the winter season, when most of annual precipitation occurs, and consequently have strong impacts on agriculture, groundwater levels and water resources. The goal of this study is to model annual maximum dry spells lengths (AMDSL) that occur during the extended winter season (October to April). The spatial patterns of extreme dry spells and their relationships with large-scale atmospheric circulation were first investigated. Then, AMDSL were modelled using Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distributions incorporating climatic covariates, to evaluate the dependences of extreme dry spells to synoptic patterns using an analogue approach. The data from a network of 160 rain gauges having daily precipitation measurements between 1960 and 2009 are considered together with the ERA-20C reanalysis of the 20th century to provide atmospheric variables (geopotential heights, humidity, winds). A regional classification of both the occurrence and the duration of AMDSL helped to distinguish three spatially contiguous regions in which the regional distributions were found homogeneous. From composite analysis, significant positive anomalies in geopotential height (Z500) and negative anomalies in zonal wind (U850) and relative and specific humidity (S850, R850) were found to be associated with AMDSL in the three regions and provided the reference to build analogue days. Finally, non-stationary GEV models have been compared, in which the location and scale parameters are related to different atmospheric indices. Results indicates, at the whole Mediterranean scale, that positives anomalies of the North Atlantic Oscillation index and to a lesser extent the Mediterranean Oscillation index are linked to longer extreme dry spells in the majority of stations. For the three regions identified, the frequency of U850 negative anomalies over North Africa is significantly associated with the magnitude of AMDSL. AMDL are also associated with the frequency of S850 negative anomalies for the southeastern region, and with positive Z500 anomalies for the Western and North-eastern Mediterranean regions.

Modification of land-atmosphere interactions by CO2 effects: Implications for summer dryness and heat wave amplitude

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lemordant, Léo.; Gentine, Pierre; Stéfanon, Marc; Drobinski, Philippe; Fatichi, Simone

2016-10-01

Plant stomata couple the energy, water, and carbon cycles. We use the framework of Regional Climate Modeling to simulate the 2003 European heat wave and assess how higher levels of surface CO2 may affect such an extreme event through land-atmosphere interactions. Increased CO2 modifies the seasonality of the water cycle through stomatal regulation and increased leaf area. As a result, the water saved during the growing season through higher water use efficiency mitigates summer dryness and the heat wave impact. Land-atmosphere interactions and CO2 fertilization together synergistically contribute to increased summer transpiration. This, in turn, alters the surface energy budget and decreases sensible heat flux, mitigating air temperature rise. Accurate representation of the response to higher CO2 levels and of the coupling between the carbon and water cycles is therefore critical to forecasting seasonal climate, water cycle dynamics, and to enhance the accuracy of extreme event prediction under future climate.

Seasonal changes in the preferred body temperature, cardiovascular, and respiratory responses to hypoxia in the toad, Bufo paracnemis.

PubMed

Bícego-Nahas, K C; Gargaglioni, L H; Branco, L G

2001-05-01

Estivation is accompanied by a reduction of oxygen consumption in amphibians during drought. We tested the hypothesis that, during the dry season, the toad Bufo paracnemis selects a lower preferred body temperature (T(b)), and would be less sensitive to hypoxia, than during its active period. Therefore, during winter (dry season in São Paulo state, Brazil) and summer, we measured the effects of hypoxia (7% inspired O(2)) on preferred T(b). Additionally, pulmonary ventilation, heart rate, blood pressure, and oxygen consumption were also measured in toads at 15 and 25 degrees C. Blood gases were measured at 25 degrees C. Oxygen consumption was significantly higher during summer in toads at 25 degrees C. Under normoxia, preferred T(b) was higher during summer than during winter, and hypoxia caused a drop in preferred T(b) during both seasons. In both seasons, toads at 15 degrees C showed reduced pulmonary ventilation, heart rate, and blood pressure, and hypoxia had no effect. At 25 degrees C during summer only, hypoxia caused an increase in ventilation. Season had no effect on blood gases. We conclude that B. paracnemis displays an endogenous seasonal pattern of thermoregulation and control of ventilation. The decreased preferred T(b) and the physiological responses to hypoxia may be beneficial to toads encountering drought and when food is not available.

Suppressed midlatitude summer atmospheric warming by Arctic sea ice loss during 1979-2012

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Qigang; Cheng, Luyao; Chan, Duo; Yao, Yonghong; Hu, Haibo; Yao, Ying

2016-03-01

Since the 1980s, rapid Arctic warming, sea ice decline, and weakening summer circulation have coincided with an increasing number of extreme heat waves and other destructive weather events in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) midlatitudes in summer. Recent papers disagree about whether such high-impact events are related to Arctic warming and/or ice loss. Here we use atmospheric model ensemble simulations to attribute effects of sea ice loss and other factors on observed summer climate trends during 1979-2012. The ongoing greenhouse gas buildup and resulting sea surface temperature warming outside the Arctic explains nearly all land warming and a significant portion of observed weakening zonal winds in the NH midlatitudes. However, sea ice loss has induced a negative Arctic Oscillation(AO)-type circulation with significant summer surface and tropospheric cooling trends over large portions of the NH midlatitudes, which reduce the warming and might reduce the probability of regional severe hot summers.

Characteristics of occurrence of heavy rainfall events over Odisha during summer monsoon season

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Swain, Madhusmita; Pattanayak, Sujata; Mohanty, U. C.

2018-06-01

During summer monsoon season heavy to very heavy rainfall events have been occurring over most part of India, routinely result in flooding over Indian Monsoon Region (IMR). It is worthwhile to mention that as per Geological Survey of India, Odisha is one of the most flood prone regions of India. The present study analyses the occurrence of very light (0-2.4 mm/day), light (2.5 - 15.5 mm/day), moderate (15.6 - 64.4 mm/day), heavy (64.5 - 115.4 mm/day), very heavy (115.5 - 204.4 mm/day) and extreme (≥ 204.5 mm/day) rainy days over Odisha during summer monsoon season for a period of 113 years (1901 - 2013) and a detailed study has been done for heavy-to-extreme rainy days. For this purpose, India Meteorological Department (IMD) gridded (0.25° × 0.25° lat/lon) rainfall data and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim) (0.125° × 0.125° lat/lon) datasets are used. The analysis reveals that the frequency of very light, light and moderate rainy days persists with almost constant trend, but the heavy, very heavy and extreme rainy days exhibit an increasing trend during the study period. It may be noted that more than 60% of heavy-to-extreme rainy days are observed in the month of July and August. Furthermore, during the recent period (1980-2013), there are a total of 150 extreme rainy days are observed over Odisha, out of which 47% are associated with monsoon depressions (MDs) and cyclonic storms, 41% are with lows, 2% are due to the presence of middle and upper tropospheric cyclonic circulations, 1% is due to monsoon trough and other 9% of extreme rainy days does not follow any of these synoptic conditions. Since a large (nearly half) percentage of extreme rainy days over Odisha is due to the presence of MDs, a detailed examination of MDs is illustrated in this study. Analysis reveals that there are a total of 91 MDs formed over the Bay of Bengal (BoB) during 1980 - 2013, and out of which 56 (61.5% of total MD) MDs crossed Odisha. Further spatial analysis of extreme rainfall days exhibits that the maximum frequency of extreme rainy days is present over the south west region of Odisha.

Effects of Cumulus Parameterization on the U.S. Summer Precipitation Prediction by the Regional Climate-Weather Research and Forecasting Model (CWRF)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qiao, F.; Liang, X.

2011-12-01

Accurate prediction of U.S. summer precipitation, including its geographic distribution, the occurrence frequency and intensity, and diurnal cycle, has been a long-standing problem for most climate and weather models. This study employs the Climate-Weather Research and Forecasting model (CWRF) to investigate the effects of cumulus parameterization on prediction of these key precipitation features during the summers of 1993 and 2008 when severe floods occurred over the U.S. Midwest. Among the 12 widely-used cumulus schemes incorporated in the CWRF, the Ensemble Cumulus Parameterization modified from G3 (ECP) scheme and the Zhang-McFarland cumulus scheme modified by Liang (ZML) well reproduce the geographic distributions of observed 1993 and 2008 floods, albeit both slightly underestimating the maximum amount. However, the ZML scheme greatly overestimates the rainfall amount over the North American Monsoon region and Southeast U.S. while the ECP scheme has a better performance over the entire U.S. Compared to global general circulations models that tend to produce too frequent rainy events at reduced intensity, the CWRF better captures both frequency and intensity of extreme events (heavy rainfall and dry bells). However, most existing cumulus schemes in the CWRF are likely to convert atmospheric moisture into rainfall too fast, leading to less rainy days and stronger heavy rainfall events. A few cumulus schemes can depict the diurnal characteristics in certain but not all the regions over the U.S. For example, the Grell scheme shows its superiority in reproducing the eastward diurnal phase transition and the nocturnal peaks over the Great Plains, whereas the other schemes all fail in capturing this feature. By investigating the critical trigger function(s) that enable these cumulus schemes to capture the observed features, it provides opportunity to better understand the underlying mechanisms that drive the diurnal variation, and thus significantly improves the U.S. summer rainfall diurnal cycle prediction. These will be discussed. For an oral presentation at AGU Fall Meeting 2011 A15: Cloud, Convection, Precipitation, and Radiation: Observations and Modeling, San Francisco, California, USA, 5-9 December 2011.

Technology development of protein rich concentrates for nutrition in extreme conditions using soybean and meat by-products.

PubMed

Kalenik, Tatiana K; Costa, Rui; Motkina, Elena V; Kosenko, Tamara A; Skripko, Olga V; Kadnikova, Irina A

2017-01-01

There is a need to develop new foods for participants of expeditions in extreme conditions, which must be self-sufficient. These foods should be light to carry, with a long shelf life, tasty and with  high nutrient density. Currently, protein sources are limited mainly to dried and canned meat. In this work, a protein-rich dried concentrate suitable for extreme expeditions was developed using soya, tomato, milk whey and meat by-products. Protein concentrates were developed using minced beef liver and heart, dehydrated and mixed with a soya protein-lycopene coagulate (SPLC) obtained from a solution prepared with germi- nated soybeans and mixed with tomato paste in milk whey, and finally dried. The technological parameters of pressing SPLC and of drying the protein concentrate were optimized using response surface methodology. The optimized technological parameters to prepare the protein concentrates were obtained, with 70:30 being the ideal ratio of minced meat to SPLC. The developed protein concentrates are characterized by a high calorific value of 376 kcal/100 g of dry product, with a water content of 98 g·kg-1, and 641-644 g·kg-1 of proteins. The essential amino acid indices are 100, with minimum essential amino acid content constitut- ing 100-128% of the FAO standard, depending on the raw meat used. These concentrates are also rich in micronutrients such as β-carotene and vitamin C. Analysis of the nutrient content showed that these non-perishable concentrates present a high nutritional value and complement other widely available vegetable concentrates to prepare a two-course meal. The soups and porridges prepared with these concentrates can be classified as functional foods, and comply with army requirements applicable to food products for extreme conditions.

Large variations in diurnal and seasonal patterns of sap flux among Aleppo pine trees in semi-arid forest reflect tree-scale hydraulic adjustments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Preisler, Yakir; Tatarinov, Fyodor; Rohatyn, Shani; Rotenberg, Eyal; Grünzweig, José M.; Klein, Tamir; Yakir, Dan

2015-04-01

Adjustments and adaptations of trees to drought vary across different biomes, species and habitats, with important implications for tree mortality and forest dieback associated with global climate change. The aim of this study was to investigate possible links between the patterns of variations in water flux dynamics and drought resistance in Aleppo pine (Pinus halepensis) trees in a semi-arid stand (Yatir forest, Israel). We measured sap flow (SF) and variations in stem diameter, complemented with short-term campaigns of leaf-scale measurements of water vapour and CO2 gas exchange, branch water potential and hydraulic conductivity, as well as eddy flux measurements of evapotranspiration (ET) from a permanent flux tower at the site. SF rates were well synchronized with ET, reaching maximum rates during midday in all trees during the rainy season (Dec-Apr). However, during the dry season (May-Nov), the daily trend in the rates of SF greatly varied among trees, allowing classification into three tree classes: 1) trees with SF maximum rate constantly occurring in mid-day (12:00-13:00); 2)trees showing a shift to an early morning SF peak (04:00-06:00); and 3) trees shifting their daily SF peak to the evening (16:00-18:00). This classification did not change during the four years study period, between 2010 and 2014. Checking for correlation of tree parameters as DBH, tree height, crown size, and competition indices with rates of SF, indicated that timing of maximum SF in summer was mainly related to tree size (DBH), when large trees tended to have a later SF maximum. Dendrometer measurements indicated that large trees (high DBH) had maximum daily diameter in the morning during summer and winter, while small trees typically had maximum daily diameter during midday and afternoon in winter and summer, respectively. Leaf-scale transpiration (T) measurements showed typical morning peak in all trees, and another peak in the afternoon in large trees only. Different diurnal curves observed during the dry season, indicated that water potential and hydraulic conductivity values in larger trees restored from midday depression earlier than in smaller ones. The results demonstrate large heterogeneity in the behaviour related to tree water relations among trees of the same species and in the same stand. The combination of diurnal leaf-scale measurements, SF and changes in DBH demonstrated the different strategies of individual trees of different sizes. Large trees with sufficient internal water storage can more freely manipulate their water storage capacity, with reduced dependence on environmental conditions (e.g., morning and afternoon peaks of T). On the other hand, during the dry summer small trees with insufficient internal water storage are strongly restricted by low soil water availability and extreme environmental conditions, which is expressed in only one peak of T, midday to afternoon shift of diurnal DBH maximum, and shift in SF to predawn when soil water potential is highest. Refilling of internal water storage seems to be in the afternoon/evening since T becomes smaller than SF and DBH increases. Reliance on external water availability in small trees might be insufficient during long drought episodes when soil water content decreases below threshold required for extraction by the trees, leading to increased tree mortality in small DBH trees.

The impact of inter-annual rainfall variability on African savannas changes with mean rainfall.

PubMed

Synodinos, Alexis D; Tietjen, Britta; Lohmann, Dirk; Jeltsch, Florian

2018-01-21

Savannas are mixed tree-grass ecosystems whose dynamics are predominantly regulated by resource competition and the temporal variability in climatic and environmental factors such as rainfall and fire. Hence, increasing inter-annual rainfall variability due to climate change could have a significant impact on savannas. To investigate this, we used an ecohydrological model of stochastic differential equations and simulated African savanna dynamics along a gradient of mean annual rainfall (520-780 mm/year) for a range of inter-annual rainfall variabilities. Our simulations produced alternative states of grassland and savanna across the mean rainfall gradient. Increasing inter-annual variability had a negative effect on the savanna state under dry conditions (520 mm/year), and a positive effect under moister conditions (580-780 mm/year). The former resulted from the net negative effect of dry and wet extremes on trees. In semi-arid conditions (520 mm/year), dry extremes caused a loss of tree cover, which could not be recovered during wet extremes because of strong resource competition and the increased frequency of fires. At high mean rainfall (780 mm/year), increased variability enhanced savanna resilience. Here, resources were no longer limiting and the slow tree dynamics buffered against variability by maintaining a stable population during 'dry' extremes, providing the basis for growth during wet extremes. Simultaneously, high rainfall years had a weak marginal benefit on grass cover due to density-regulation and grazing. Our results suggest that the effects of the slow tree and fast grass dynamics on tree-grass interactions will become a major determinant of the savanna vegetation composition with increasing rainfall variability. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Keratomalacia

MedlinePlus

... affected, resulting in an inadequate tear film and dry eyes. People with extreme eye dryness can develop foamy ... keratomalacia is based on the presence of a dry or ulcerated cornea in an undernourished person. ... eye drops or ointments Treatment of vitamin A deficiency ...

Controls on the distribution of productivity and organic resources in Antarctic Dry Valley soils.

PubMed

Hopkins, D W; Sparrow, A D; Novis, P M; Gregorich, E G; Elberling, B; Greenfield, L G

2006-11-07

The Antarctic Dry Valleys are regarded as one of the harshest terrestrial habitats on Earth because of the extremely cold and dry conditions. Despite the extreme environment and scarcity of conspicuous primary producers, the soils contain organic carbon and heterotrophic micro-organisms and invertebrates. Potential sources of organic compounds to sustain soil organisms include in situ primary production by micro-organisms and mosses, spatial subsidies from lacustrine and marine-derived detritus, and temporal subsidies ('legacies') from ancient lake deposits. The contributions from these sources at different sites are likely to be influenced by local environmental conditions, especially soil moisture content, position in the landscape in relation to lake level oscillations and legacies from previous geomorphic processes. Here we review the abiotic factors that influence biological activity in Dry Valley soils and present a conceptual model that summarizes mechanisms leading to organic resources therein.

Seasonal Forecasts of Extreme Conditions for Wildland Fire Management in Alaska using NMME

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhatt, U. S.; Bieniek, P.; Thoman, R.; York, A.; Ziel, R.

2016-12-01

The summer of 2015 was the second largest Alaska fire season since 1950 where approximately the land area of Massachusetts burned. The record fire year of 2004 resulted in 6.5 million acres burned and was costly from property loss (> 35M) and emergency personnel (> 17M). In addition to requiring significant resources, wildfire smoke impacts air quality in Alaska and downstream into North America. Fires in Alaska result from lightning strikes coupled with persistent (extreme) dry warm conditions in remote areas with limited fire management and the seasonal climate/weather determine the extent of the fire season in Alaska. Fire managers rely on weather/climate outlooks for allocating staff and resources from days to a season in advance. Though currently few tested products are available at the seasonal scale. Probabilistic forecasts of the expected seasonal climate/weather would aid tremendously in the planning process. Advanced knowledge of both lightning and fuel conditions would assist managers in planning resource allocation for the upcoming season. For fuel conditions, the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index System (CFFWIS) has been used since 1992 because it better suits the Alaska fire regime than the standard US National Fire Danger Rating System (NFDRS). This CFFWIS is based on early afternoon values of 2-m air temperature, relative humidity, and 10-m winds and daily total precipitation. Extremes of these indices and the variables are used to calculate these indices will be defined in reference to fire weather for the boreal forest. The CFFWIS will be applied and evaluated for the NMME hindcasts. This study will evaluate the quality of the forecasts comparing the hindcast NMME CFFWIS to acres burned in Alaska. Spatial synoptic patterns in the NMME related to fire weather extremes will be constructed using self-organized maps and probabilities of occurrence will be evaluated against acres burned.

The analysis on the extreme water shortage event in Hangzhou in 1247 AD and its natural and social backgrounds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Haolong

2017-04-01

Yangtze River Delta locating in the north subtropics of China, is famous for numerous rivers and lakes. Because of East Asian monsoon rainfall, flood is always the most primary disaster in this area during the past 2000 years. However, there were also several extreme water shortage events in the history. Example in Hangzhou in 1247 AD was such a typical year in the area. In the paper, the severity of this extreme event and the closely tied spatiotemporal variation of drought in Yangtze River Delta was quantitatively analyzed on the basis of documentary records during Southern Song Dynasty. Furtherly, its natural and social backgrounds was discussed. The result s are summarized as follows: 1) Wells, canals and West Lake of Hangzhou dried up in 1247 AD. The water level of canals was about 1.32-2.64 m lower than that in the normal year. The reduction of storage capacity in West Lake was 21 million stere or so. 2) The droughts in Yangtze River Delta was moderate on the whole, but that in the west of Zhejiang Province was severe. The drought in Hangzhou lasted from the 2nd lunar month to the end of this year. 3) The water shortage event was closely related to the quick going north and farther northern location of summer rain belt. The descending sea-level weakening the tide in Qiantang River, can also reduce the supply of water resources. 4) The quick growth of urban population, excessive aquaculture, and ineffective government supervision played an important social role in the process of this event. In the all, this extreme water shortage event was the result of both natural and social factors. This research is very helpful for the futuristic water resource forecast in Yangtze River Delta, and it also affords us lessons on the risk management and heritage conservation that merit attention. Key Words: Hangzhou, 1247 AD, water shortage, canal, West Lake, natural factors, social factors

Teleconnections of ENSO and IOD to summer monsoon and rice production potential of India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jha, Somnath; Sehgal, Vinay Kumar; Raghava, Ramesh; Sinha, Mourani

2016-12-01

Regional trend of summer monsoon precipitation has been analyzed for broad physical regions of India namely, (i) Indo-Gangetic plain, (ii) Central and East India, (iii) Coastal and Peninsular India and (iv) Western India. A significantly drying trend has been found in the two regions namely, Indo-Gangetic plain and Central and East India with comparative seasonal rate of drying higher in the latter region. A complex relation between the regional trend of summer monsoon precipitation, global teleconnection parameters and rice production of the regions have been studied. El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) have a significant role in the precipitation anomaly of Indo-Gangetic plain unlike Central and East India where the ENSO only plays role as global teleconnection parameter. Rice production of Central and East India has been found to be affected adversely during the El Nino years. Central and East India is found to be the worst affected region compared to the Indo-Gangetic plain with respect to its fragile rainfed rice production potential and strong adverse teleconnection of El Nino on the rice production in this zone.

Sensitivity of summer climate to anthropogenic land-cover change over the Greater Phoenix, AZ, region

USGS Publications Warehouse

Georgescu, M.; Miguez-Macho, G.; Steyaert, L.T.; Weaver, C.P.

2008-01-01

This work evaluates the first-order effect of land-use/land-cover change (LULCC) on the summer climate of one of the nation's most rapidly expanding metropolitan complexes, the Greater Phoenix, AZ, region. High-resolution-2-km grid spacing-Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) simulations of three "wet" and three "dry" summers were carried out for two different land-cover reconstructions for the region: a circa 1992 representation based on satellite observations, and a hypothetical land-cover scenario where the anthropogenic landscape of irrigated agriculture and urban pixels was replaced with current semi-natural vegetation. Model output is evaluated with respect to observed air temperature, dew point, and precipitation. Our results suggest that development of extensive irrigated agriculture adjacent to the urban area has dampened any regional-mean warming due to urbanization. Consistent with previous observationally based work, LULCC produces a systematic increase in precipitation to the north and east of the city, though only under dry conditions. This is due to a change in background atmospheric stability resulting from the advection of both warmth from the urban core and moisture from the irrigated area. ?? 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Exergetic simulation of a combined infrared-convective drying process

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aghbashlo, Mortaza

2016-04-01

Optimal design and performance of a combined infrared-convective drying system with respect to the energy issue is extremely put through the application of advanced engineering analyses. This article proposes a theoretical approach for exergy analysis of the combined infrared-convective drying process using a simple heat and mass transfer model. The applicability of the developed model to actual drying processes was proved using an illustrative example for a typical food.

Tree rings of Scots pine ( Pinus sylvestris L.) as a source of information about past climate in northern Poland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koprowski, Marcin; Przybylak, Rajmund; Zielski, Andrzej; Pospieszyńska, Aleksandra

2012-01-01

Scots pine ( Pinus sylvestris) is a very common tree in Polish forests, and therefore was widely used as timber. A relatively large amount of available wood allowed a long-term chronology to be built up and used as a source of information about past climate. The analysis of reconstructed indexed values of mean temperature in 51-year moving intervals allowed the recognition of the coldest periods in the years 1207-1346, 1383-1425, 1455-1482, 1533-1574, 1627-1646, and 1694-1785. The analysis of extreme wide and narrow rings forms a complementary method of examining climatic data within tree rings. The tree ring widths, early wood and late wood widths of 16 samples were assessed during the period 1581-1676. The most apparent effect is noted in the dry summer of 1616. According to previous research and our findings, temperature from February to March seems to be one of the most stable climatic factors which influenced pine growth in Poland. Correlation coefficients in the calibration and validation procedure gave promising results for temperature reconstruction from the pine chronology.

Tree rings of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) as a source of information about past climate in northern Poland.

PubMed

Koprowski, Marcin; Przybylak, Rajmund; Zielski, Andrzej; Pospieszyńska, Aleksandra

2012-01-01

Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) is a very common tree in Polish forests, and therefore was widely used as timber. A relatively large amount of available wood allowed a long-term chronology to be built up and used as a source of information about past climate. The analysis of reconstructed indexed values of mean temperature in 51-year moving intervals allowed the recognition of the coldest periods in the years 1207-1346, 1383-1425, 1455-1482, 1533-1574, 1627-1646, and 1694-1785. The analysis of extreme wide and narrow rings forms a complementary method of examining climatic data within tree rings. The tree ring widths, early wood and late wood widths of 16 samples were assessed during the period 1581-1676. The most apparent effect is noted in the dry summer of 1616. According to previous research and our findings, temperature from February to March seems to be one of the most stable climatic factors which influenced pine growth in Poland. Correlation coefficients in the calibration and validation procedure gave promising results for temperature reconstruction from the pine chronology.

Robotics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rothschild, Lynn J.

2012-01-01

Earth's upper atmosphere is an extreme environment: dry, cold, and irradiated. It is unknown whether our aerobiosphere is limited to the transport of life, or there exist organisms that grow and reproduce while airborne (aerophiles); the microenvironments of suspended particles may harbor life at otherwise uninhabited altitudes[2]. The existence of aerophiles would significantly expand the range of planets considered candidates for life by, for example, including the cooler clouds of a hot Venus-like planet. The X project is an effort to engineer a robotic exploration and biosampling payload for a comprehensive survey of Earth's aerobiology. While many one-shot samples have been retrieved from above 15 km, their results are primarily qualitative; variations in method confound comparisons, leaving such major gaps in our knowledge of aerobiology as quantification of populations at different strata and relative species counts[1]. These challenges and X's preliminary solutions are explicated below. X's primary balloon payload is undergoing a series of calibrations before beginning flights in Spring 2012. A suborbital launch is currently planned for Summer 2012. A series of ground samples taken in Winter 2011 is being used to establish baseline counts and identify likely background contaminants.

Survey views of the Mir space station taken during rendezvous

NASA Image and Video Library

1997-01-16

STS081-709-061 (12-22 Jan. 1997) --- As recorded while Space Shuttle Atlantis was docked with Russia's Mir Space Station, this 70mm camera's frame shows South Africa's wine growing country (immediately right of the solar panel) in a southwest-looking perspective. Most of the population in the Western Cape Province, as it is known, is clustered in the wet extreme south of the country identified here with denser cloud masses. This is the Mediterranean region of the country, experiencing summer drought when the photograph was taken. Cape Town lies immediately right of the solar panel and the Swartland wheat country to the left. The darker green areas are more heavily vegetated regions on the continental escarpment. The large bay in the region is the remote St. Helena Bay (Africa's southernmost point, Cape Agulhas, lies behind the solar panel). The cloud-free parts of the country in the foreground is the sparsely populated semidesert known as the Karroo, a quiet region to which people retire both for its rare dry climate and its beauty.

Weather and extremes in the last Millennium - a challenge for climate modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raible, Christoph C.; Blumer, Sandro R.; Gomez-Navarro, Juan J.; Lehner, Flavio

2015-04-01

Changes in the climate mean state are expected to influence society, but the socio-economic sensitivity to extreme events might be even more severe. Whether or not the current frequency and severity of extreme events is a unique characteristic of anthropogenic-driven climate change can be assessed by putting the observed changes in a long-term perspective. In doing so, early instrumental series and proxy archives are a rich source to investigate also extreme events, in particular during the last millennium, yet they suffer from spatial and temporal scarcity. Therefore, simulations with coupled general circulation models (GCMs) could fill such gaps and help in deepening our process understanding. In this study, an overview of past and current efforts as well as challenges in modelling paleo weather and extreme events is presented. Using simulations of the last millennium we investigate extreme midlatitude cyclone characteristics, precipitation, and their connection to large-scale atmospheric patterns in the North Atlantic European region. In cold climate states such as the Maunder Minimum, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is found to be predominantly in its negative phase. In this sense, simulations of different models agree with proxy findings for this period. However, some proxy data available for this period suggests an increase in storminess during this period, which could be interpreted as a positive phase of the NAO - a superficial contradiction. The simulated cyclones are partly reduced over Europe, which is consistent with the aforementioned negative phase of the NAO. However, as the meridional temperature gradient is increased during this period - which constitutes a source of low-level baroclincity - they also intensify. This example illustrates how model simulations could be used to improve our proxy interpretation and to gain additional process understanding. Nevertheless, there are also limitations associated with climate modeling efforts to simulate the last millennium. In particular, these models still struggle to properly simulate atmospheric blocking events, an important dynamical feature for dry conditions during summer times. Finally, new and promising ways in improving past climate modelling are briefly introduced. In particular, the use of dynamical downscaling is a powerful tool to bridge the gap between the coarsely resolved GCMs and characteristics of the regional climate, which is potentially recorded in proxy archives. In particular, the representation of extreme events could be improved by dynamical downscaling as processes are better resolved than GCMs.

Plants remember past weather: a study for atmospheric pollen concentrations of Ambrosia, Poaceae and Populus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matyasovszky, István; Makra, László; Csépe, Zoltán; Sümeghy, Zoltán; Deák, Áron József; Pál-Molnár, Elemér; Tusnády, Gábor

2015-10-01

After extreme dry (wet) summers or years, pollen production of different taxa may decrease (increase) substantially. Accordingly, studying effects of current and past meteorological conditions on current pollen concentrations for different taxa have of major importance. The purpose of this study is separating the weight of current and past weather conditions influencing current pollen productions of three taxa. Two procedures, namely multiple correlations and factor analysis with special transformation are used. The 11-year (1997-2007) data sets include daily pollen counts of Ambrosia (ragweed), Poaceae (grasses) and Populus (poplar), as well as daily values of four climate variables (temperature, relative humidity, global solar flux and precipitation). Multiple correlations of daily pollen counts with simultaneous values of daily meteorological variables do not show annual course for Ambrosia, but do show definite trends for Populus and Poaceae. Results received using the two methods revealed characteristic similarities. For all the three taxa, the continental rainfall peak and additional local showers in the growing season can strengthen the weight of the current meteorological elements. However, due to the precipitation, big amount of water can be stored in the soil contributing to the effect of the past climate elements during dry periods. Higher climate sensitivity (especially water sensitivity) of the herbaceous taxa ( Ambrosia and Poaceae) can be definitely established compared to the arboreal Populus. Separation of the weight of the current and past weather conditions for different taxa involves practical importance both for health care and agricultural production.

Reverse relationship between drought of mid-latitudes in East Asia and Northwest Pacific tropical cyclone genesis frequency in summer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choi, Jae-Won; Cha, Yumi; Kim, Jeoung-Yun

2016-12-01

This study found that there is a significant negative correlation between summer drought in Korea, China and Japan and the frequency of tropical cyclone (TC) in the subtropical western North Pacific (SWNP) using effective drought index (EDI). The frequency of TCs that affect Korea is low (high) in a year of summer drought (non-drought). As a case study, in 1994 when there is extremely severe summer drought in Korea, there was high frequency of TCs while in 2003 when there was least severe summer drought, the frequency of TCs is the lowest. Changes in the anomalous secondary circulation, namely anomalous upward (downward) flow in the SWNP and anomalous downward (upward) flow in the mid-latitudes of East Asia, are one of the causes of drought (non-drought).

Future projection of Indian summer monsoon variability under climate change scenario: An assessment from CMIP5 climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharmila, S.; Joseph, S.; Sahai, A. K.; Abhilash, S.; Chattopadhyay, R.

2015-01-01

In this study, the impact of enhanced anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions on the possible future changes in different aspects of daily-to-interannual variability of Indian summer monsoon (ISM) is systematically assessed using 20 coupled models participated in the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5. The historical (1951-1999) and future (2051-2099) simulations under the strongest Representative Concentration Pathway have been analyzed for this purpose. A few reliable models are selected based on their competence in simulating the basic features of present-climate ISM variability. The robust and consistent projections across the selected models suggest substantial changes in the ISM variability by the end of 21st century indicating strong sensitivity of ISM to global warming. On the seasonal scale, the all-India summer monsoon mean rainfall is likely to increase moderately in future, primarily governed by enhanced thermodynamic conditions due to atmospheric warming, but slightly offset by weakened large scale monsoon circulation. It is projected that the rainfall magnitude will increase over core monsoon zone in future climate, along with lengthening of the season due to late withdrawal. On interannual timescales, it is speculated that severity and frequency of both strong monsoon (SM) and weak monsoon (WM) might increase noticeably in future climate. Substantial changes in the daily variability of ISM are also projected, which are largely associated with the increase in heavy rainfall events and decrease in both low rain-rate and number of wet days during future monsoon. On the subseasonal scale, the model projections depict considerable amplification of higher frequency (below 30 day mode) components; although the dominant northward propagating 30-70 day mode of monsoon intraseasonal oscillations may not change appreciably in a warmer climate. It is speculated that the enhanced high frequency mode of monsoon ISOs due to increased GHG induced warming may notably modulate the ISM rainfall in future climate. Both extreme wet and dry episodes are likely to intensify and regionally extend in future climate with enhanced propensity of short active and long break spells. The SM (WM) could also be more wet (dry) in future due to the increment in longer active (break) spells. However, future changes in the spatial pattern during active/break phase of SM and WM are geographically inconsistent among the models. The results point out the growing climate-related vulnerability over Indian subcontinent, and further suggest the requisite of profound adaptation measures and better policy making in future.

Sea ice convergence along the Arctic coasts of Greenland and the Canadian Arctic Archipelago: Variability and extremes (1992-2014)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kwok, Ron

2015-09-01

After the summer of 2013, a convergence-induced tail in the thickness distribution of the ice cover is found along the Arctic coasts of Greenland and Canadian Arctic Archipelago. Prompted by this, a normalized ice convergence index (ICI) is introduced to examine the variability and extremes in convergence in a 23 year record (1992-2014) of monthly ice drift. Large-scale composites of circulation patterns, characteristic of regional convergence and divergence, are examined. Indeed, the ICI shows the June 2013 convergence event to be an extreme (i.e., ICI > 2). Furthermore, there is a cluster of 9 months over a 17 month period with positive ICIs (i.e., >1) following the record summer minimum ice extent (SMIE) in 2012; the imprint of ice dynamics from this cluster of positive ICIs likely contributed to higher SMIEs in 2013 and 2014. The impact of convergence on SMIE is discussed, and the increase in Arctic ice volume in 2013 is underscored.

Reactivation of a cryptobiotic stream ecosystem in the McMurdo Dry Valleys, Antarctica: A long-term geomorphological experiment

USGS Publications Warehouse

McKnight, Diane M.; Tate, C.M.; Andrews, E.D.; Niyogi, D.K.; Cozzetto, K.; Welch, K.; Lyons, W.B.; Capone, D.G.

2007-01-01

The McMurdo Dry Valleys of Antarctica contain many glacial meltwater streams that flow for 6 to 12??weeks during the austral summer and link the glaciers to the lakes on the valley floors. Dry valley streams gain solutes longitudinally through weathering reactions and microbial processes occurring in the hyporheic zone. Some streams have thriving cyanobacterial mats. In streams with regular summer flow, the mats are freeze-dried through the winter and begin photosynthesizing with the onset of flow. To evaluate the longer term persistence of cyanobacterial mats, we diverted flow to an abandoned channel, which had not received substantial flow for approximately two decades. Monitoring of specific conductance showed that for the first 3??years after the diversion, the solute concentrations were greater in the reactivated channel than in most other dry valley streams. We observed that cyanobacterial mats became abundant in the reactivated channel within a week, indicating that the mats had been preserved in a cryptobiotic state in the channel. Over the next several years, these mats had high rates of productivity and nitrogen fixation compared to mats from other streams. Experiments in which mats from the reactivated channel and another stream were incubated in water from both of the streams indicated that the greater solute concentrations in the reactivated channel stimulated net primary productivity of mats from both streams. These stream-scale experimental results indicate that the cryptobiotic preservation of cyanobacterial mats in abandoned channels in the dry valleys allows for rapid response of these stream ecosystems to climatic and geomorphological change, similar to other arid zone stream ecosystems. ?? 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of a high-moisture stabilization strategy for harvested microalgae blended with herbaceous biomass: Part II — Techno-economic assessment

DOE PAGES

Wendt, Lynn M.; Wahlen, Bradley D.; Li, Chenlin; ...

2017-04-26

The seasonal variability in algal biomass production and its susceptibility to rapid degradation increases uncertainty in algal productivity and increases risks to feedstock supply for conversion. During summer months when algal biomass productivity is highest, production could exceed conversion capacity, resulting in delayed processing and risk of biomass degradation. Drying algae for preservation is energy-intensive and can account for over 50% of the total energy demand in algae preprocessing. Anaerobic wet storage – ensiling – is a widely used storage technique for stabilization of high moisture forage. Wet stabilization of algae eliminates the need for drying, and blending with herbaceousmore » biomass allows for the utilization of the silage industry’s existing harvest, handling and storage infrastructure. A storage facility co-located with the algae production and conversion operations was designed to stabilize algal biomass produced in excess of conversion capacity during summer months for use in the winter when algal biomass production is reduced. Techno-economic assessment of the costs associated with ensiling algae and corn stover blends suggest it to be a cost effective approach, compared to drying. In a high algal biomass productivity scenario, costs of wet storage ($/gallon diesel) were only 65% of the cost of drying. When a reduced algal biomass productivity scenario was considered, the stored blend was able to cost-effectively provide sufficient biomass such that winter production in the algal ponds could cease, meanwhile incurring only 91% of the costs of drying; such an approach would facilitate algal biomass production in northern latitudes. Moreover, the wet storage approaches requiring only 8-10% of the total energy consumption and releasing only 20-25% of the greenhouse gasses when compared to a natural-gas based drying approach for microalgae stabilization.« less

Evaluation of a high-moisture stabilization strategy for harvested microalgae blended with herbaceous biomass: Part II — Techno-economic assessment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wendt, Lynn M.; Wahlen, Bradley D.; Li, Chenlin

The seasonal variability in algal biomass production and its susceptibility to rapid degradation increases uncertainty in algal productivity and increases risks to feedstock supply for conversion. During summer months when algal biomass productivity is highest, production could exceed conversion capacity, resulting in delayed processing and risk of biomass degradation. Drying algae for preservation is energy-intensive and can account for over 50% of the total energy demand in algae preprocessing. Anaerobic wet storage – ensiling – is a widely used storage technique for stabilization of high moisture forage. Wet stabilization of algae eliminates the need for drying, and blending with herbaceousmore » biomass allows for the utilization of the silage industry’s existing harvest, handling and storage infrastructure. A storage facility co-located with the algae production and conversion operations was designed to stabilize algal biomass produced in excess of conversion capacity during summer months for use in the winter when algal biomass production is reduced. Techno-economic assessment of the costs associated with ensiling algae and corn stover blends suggest it to be a cost effective approach, compared to drying. In a high algal biomass productivity scenario, costs of wet storage ($/gallon diesel) were only 65% of the cost of drying. When a reduced algal biomass productivity scenario was considered, the stored blend was able to cost-effectively provide sufficient biomass such that winter production in the algal ponds could cease, meanwhile incurring only 91% of the costs of drying; such an approach would facilitate algal biomass production in northern latitudes. Moreover, the wet storage approaches requiring only 8-10% of the total energy consumption and releasing only 20-25% of the greenhouse gasses when compared to a natural-gas based drying approach for microalgae stabilization.« less

Dry Valleys, Antarctica

NASA Image and Video Library

2009-11-02

The McMurdo Dry Valleys are a row of valleys west of McMurdo Sound, Antarctica. They are so named because of their extremely low humidity and lack of snow and ice cover. This image was acquired December 8, 2002 by NASA Terra spacecraft.

An overview of dry-wet climate variability among monsoon-westerly regions and the monsoon northernmost marginal active zone in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qian, Weihong; Ding, Ting; Hu, Haoran; Lin, Xiang; Qin, Aimin

2009-07-01

Climate in mainland China can be divided into the monsoon region in the southeast and the westerly region in the northwest as well as the intercross zone, i.e., the monsoon northernmost marginal active zone that is oriented from Southwest China to the upper Yellow River, North China, and Northeast China. In the three regions, dry-wet climate changes are directly linked to the interaction of the southerly monsoon flow on the east side of the Tibetan Plateau and the westerly flow on the north side of the Plateau from the inter-annual to inter-decadal timescales. Some basic features of climate variability in the three regions for the last half century and the historical hundreds of years are reviewed in this paper. In the last half century, an increasing trend of summer precipitation associated with the enhancing westerly flow is found in the westerly region from Xinjiang to northern parts of North China and Northeast China. On the other hand, an increasing trend of summer precipitation along the Yangtze River and a decreasing trend of summer precipitation along the monsoon northernmost marginal active zone are associated with the weakening monsoon flow in East Asia. Historical documents are widely distributed in the monsoon region for hundreds of years and natural climate proxies are constructed in the non-monsoon region, while two types of climate proxies can be commonly found over the monsoon northernmost marginal active zone. In the monsoon region, dry-wet variation centers are altered among North China, the lower Yangtze River, and South China from one century to another. Dry or wet anomalies are firstly observed along the monsoon northernmost marginal active zone and shifted southward or southeastward to the Yangtze River valley and South China in about a 70-year timescale. Severe drought events are experienced along the monsoon northernmost marginal active zone during the last 5 centuries. Inter-decadal dry-wet variations are depicted by natural proxies for the last 4-5 centuries in several areas over the non-monsoon region. Some questions, such as the impact of global warming on dry-wet regime changes in China, complex interactions between the monsoon and westerly flows in Northeast China, and the integrated multi-proxy analysis throughout all of China, are proposed.

The crystallization water of gypsum rocks is a relevant water source for plants.

PubMed

Palacio, Sara; Azorín, José; Montserrat-Martí, Gabriel; Ferrio, Juan Pedro

2014-08-18

Some minerals, like gypsum, hold water in their crystalline structure. Although still unexplored, the use of such crystallization water by organisms would point to a completely new water source for life, critical under dry conditions. Here we use the fact that the isotopic composition of free water differs from gypsum crystallization water to show that plants can use crystallization water from the gypsum structure. The composition of the xylem sap of gypsum plants during summer shows closer values to gypsum crystallization water than to free soil water. Crystallization water represents a significant water source for organisms growing on gypsum, especially during summer, when it accounts for 70-90% of the water used by shallow-rooted plants. Given the widespread occurrence of gypsum in dry lands throughout the Earth and in Mars, these results may have important implications for arid land reclamation and exobiology.

The use of bulk collectors in monitoring wet deposition at high-altitude sites in winter

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ranalli, A.J.; Turk, J.T.; Campbell, D.H.

1997-01-01

Concentrations of dissolved ions from samples collected by wet/dry collectors were compared to those collected by bulk collectors at Halfmoon Creek and Ned Wilson Lake in western Colorado to determine if bulk collectors can be used to monitor wet deposition chemistry in remote, high-altitude regions in winter. Hydrogen-ion concentration was significantly lower (p 0.05) at Halfmoon Creek. Wet deposition concentrations were predicated from bulk deposition concentrations through linear regression analysis. Results indicate that anions (chloride, nitrate and sulfate) can be predicted with a high degree of confidence. Lack of significant differences between seasonal (winter and summer) ratios of bulk to wet deposition concentrations indicates that at sites where operation of a wet/dry collector during the winter is not practical, wet deposition concentrations can be predicted from bulk collector samples through regression analysis of wet and bulk deposition data collected during the summer.

Determination of selenium in fish from designated critical habitat of the Gunnison River, Colorado, summer 2011

USGS Publications Warehouse

May, Thomas W.; Walther, Michael J.

2012-01-01

This report presents results for the summer 2011 sampling of muscle plugs from common carps (Cyprinus Linnaeus), roundtail chub (Gila robusta), and bonytail chub (Gila elegans) inhabiting critical habitat in the Gunnison River in Western Colorado. Total selenium in fish muscle plugs was determined by instrumental neutron activation analysis. Total selenium concentrations (range and mean ± standard deviation) in micrograms per gram dry weight for each species were as follows: common carp: 8.5 to 35, 13 ± 7.8; roundtail chub: 5.5 to 11.2, 7.3 ± 1.6; bonytail chub: 0.8 to 8.6, 3.9 ± 4.2. Selenium concentrations in muscle plugs from 4 out of 15 roundtail chub, all 15 common carp, and 2 out of 5 bonytail chub exceeded the 8 micrograms per gram dry weight toxicity guideline for selenium in fish muscle tissue.

Summer Freezing Resistance: A Critical Filter for Plant Community Assemblies in Mediterranean High Mountains

PubMed Central

Pescador, David S.; Sierra-Almeida, Ángela; Torres, Pablo J.; Escudero, Adrián

2016-01-01

Assessing freezing community response and whether freezing resistance is related to other functional traits is essential for understanding alpine community assemblages, particularly in Mediterranean environments where plants are exposed to freezing temperatures and summer droughts. Thus, we characterized the leaf freezing resistance of 42 plant species in 38 plots at Sierra de Guadarrama (Spain) by measuring their ice nucleation temperature, freezing point (FP), and low-temperature damage (LT50), as well as determining their freezing resistance mechanisms (i.e., tolerance or avoidance). The community response to freezing was estimated for each plot as community weighted means (CWMs) and functional diversity (FD), and we assessed their relative importance with altitude. We established the relationships between freezing resistance, growth forms, and four key plant functional traits (i.e., plant height, specific leaf area, leaf dry matter content (LDMC), and seed mass). There was a wide range of freezing resistance responses and more than in other alpine habitats. At the community level, the CWMs of FP and LT50 responded negatively to altitude, whereas the FD of both traits increased with altitude. The proportion of freezing-tolerant species also increased with altitude. The ranges of FP and LT50 varied among growth forms, and only leaf dry matter content was negatively correlated with freezing-resistance traits. Summer freezing events represent important abiotic filters for assemblies of Mediterranean high mountain communities, as suggested by the CWMs. However, a concomitant summer drought constraint may also explain the high freezing resistance of species that thrive in these areas and the lower FD of freezing resistance traits at lower altitudes. Leaves with high dry matter contents may maintain turgor at lower water potential and enhance drought tolerance in parallel to freezing resistance. This adaptation to drought seems to be a general prerequisite for plants found in xeric mountains. PMID:26941761

Effect of ambient management interventions on the production and physiological performance of lactating Sahiwal cattle during hot dry summer.

PubMed

Ahmad, Mehtab; Bhatti, Jalees Ahmed; Abdullah, Muhammad; Javed, Khalid; Ali, Mehboob; Rashid, Ghazanfar; Uddin, Rafi; Badini, Ali Hassan; Jehan, Mudassar

2018-02-24

During summer season, increase in the environmental temperature in the subtropical regions of Pakistan is negatively affecting the performance of dairy animals. The study objective was to determine the effect of ambient management (90 days) on productive and physiological performance of lactating Sahiwal cows during hot dry summer season. Fifteen lactating cows during the early lactation stage, having similar parity (3), daily milk production (6.2 l), were randomly allocated to three treatments, 5 cows each, i.e., (1) kept under roof shade only, (2) provision of fans along with roof shade, and (3) provision of roof shade, fans, and sprinklers designated as S, SF, and SFS, respectively. The fans were of 360-rpm capacity and showers were on for 40 min after every 90-min interval from 9:00 to 21:00 h. THI values were 81.1 ± 0.7, 80.5 ± 0.7, and 77.7 ± 0.4 under S, SF, and SFS treatments, respectively. Cows were milked twice daily. Respiration rate (RR) and rectal temperature (RT) data were collected at 14:00 h on daily basis. The daily milk production was significantly higher in cows under SF (7.9 ± 1 kg) followed by SFS (6.9 ± 1.2 kg) and S (6.1 ± 0.9 kg) treatments. The mean RT (101.0 ± 0.04 °F) was significantly lower in cows under SFS than that on SF and S treatments and similarly mean RR was also lower (21.2 breaths/min) in cows under SFS followed by SF and S treatments. It is concluded that milk production and physiological performance in Sahiwal cows can be improved by fan-assisted ventilation during hot dry summer in subtropical regions.

Radar backscattering from snow facies of the Greenland ice sheet: Results from the AIRSAR 1991 campaign

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rignot, Eric; Jezek, K.; Vanzyl, J. J.; Drinkwater, Mark R.; Lou, Y. L.

1993-01-01

In June 1991, the NASA/JPL airborne SAR (AIRSAR) acquired C- (lambda = 5.6cm), L- (lambda = 24cm), and P- (lambda = 68m) band polarimetric SAR data over the Greenland ice sheet. These data are processed using version 3.55 of the AIRSAR processor which provides radiometrically and polarimetrically calibrated images. The internal calibration of the AIRSAR data is cross-checked using the radar response from corner reflectors deployed prior to flight in one of the scenes. In addition, a quantitative assessment of the noise power level at various frequencies and polarizations is made in all the scenes. Synoptic SAR data corresponding to a swath width of about 12 by 50 km in length (compared to the standard 12 x 12 km size of high-resolution scenes) are also processed and calibrated to study transitions in radar backscatter as a function of snow facies at selected frequencies and polarizations. The snow facies on the Greenland ice sheet are traditionally categorized based on differences in melting regime during the summer months. The interior of Greenland corresponds to the dry snow zone where terrain elevation is the highest and no snow melt occurs. The lowest elevation boundary of the dry snow zone is known traditionally as the dry snow line. Beneath it is the percolation zone where melting occurs in the summer and water percolates through the snow freezing at depth to form massive ice lenses and ice pipes. At the downslope margin of this zone is the wet snow line. Below it, the wet snow zone corresponds to the lowest elevations where snow remains at the end of the summer. Ablation produces enough meltwater to create areas of snow saturated with water, together with ponds and lakes. The lowest altitude zone of ablation sees enough summer melt to remove all traces of seasonal snow accumulation, such that the surface comprises bare glacier ice.

Fertilization and early embryonic development in heifers and lactating cows in summer and lactating and dry cows in winter.

PubMed

Sartori, R; Sartor-Bergfelt, R; Mertens, S A; Guenther, J N; Parrish, J J; Wiltbank, M C

2002-11-01

Two experiments in two seasons evaluated fertilization rate and embryonic development in dairy cattle. Experiment 1 (summer) compared lactating Holstein cows (n = 27; 97.3 +/- 4.1 d postpartum [dppl; 40.0 +/- 1.5 kg milk/d) to nulliparous heifers (n = 28; 11 to 17 mo old). Experiment 2 (winter) compared lactating cows (n = 27; 46.4 +/- 1.6 dpp; 45.9 +/- 1.4 kg milk/d) to dry cows (n = 26). Inseminations based on estrus included combined semen from four high-fertility bulls. Embryos and oocytes recovered 5 d after ovulation were evaluated for fertilization, embryo quality (1 = excellent to 5 = degenerate), nuclei/embryo, and accessory sperm. In experiment 1, 21 embryos and 17 unfertilized oocytes (UFO) were recovered from lactating cows versus 32 embryos and no UFO from heifers (55% vs. 100% fertilization). Embryos from lactating cows had inferior quality scores (3.8 +/- 0.4 vs. 2.2 +/- 0.3), fewer nuclei/embryo (19.3 +/- 3.7 vs. 36.8 +/- 3.0) but more accessory sperm (37.3 +/- 5.8 vs. 22.4 +/- 5.5/embryo) than embryos from heifers. Sperm were attached to 80% of UFO (17.8 +/- 12.1 sperm/UFO). In experiment 2, lactating cows yielded 36 embryos and 5 UFO versus 34 embryos and 4 UFO from dry cows (87.8 vs. 89.5% fertilization). Embryo quality from lactating cows was inferior to dry cows (3.1 +/- 0.3 vs. 2.2 +/- 0.3), but embryos had similar numbers of nuclei (27.2 +/- 2.7 vs. 30.6 +/- 2.1) and accessory sperm (42.0 +/- 9.4 vs. 36.5 +/- 6.3). From 53% of the flushings from lactating cows and 28% from dry cows, only nonviable embryos were collected. Thus, embryos of lactating dairy cows were detectably inferior to embryos from nonlactating females as early as 5 d after ovulation, with a surprisingly high percentage of nonviable embryos. In addition, fertilization rate was reduced only in summer, apparently due to an effect of heat stress on the oocyte.

Greenland ice sheet motion insensitive to exceptional meltwater forcing.

PubMed

Tedstone, Andrew J; Nienow, Peter W; Sole, Andrew J; Mair, Douglas W F; Cowton, Thomas R; Bartholomew, Ian D; King, Matt A

2013-12-03

Changes to the dynamics of the Greenland ice sheet can be forced by various mechanisms including surface-melt-induced ice acceleration and oceanic forcing of marine-terminating glaciers. We use observations of ice motion to examine the surface melt-induced dynamic response of a land-terminating outlet glacier in southwest Greenland to the exceptional melting observed in 2012. During summer, meltwater generated on the Greenland ice sheet surface accesses the ice sheet bed, lubricating basal motion and resulting in periods of faster ice flow. However, the net impact of varying meltwater volumes upon seasonal and annual ice flow, and thus sea level rise, remains unclear. We show that two extreme melt events (98.6% of the Greenland ice sheet surface experienced melting on July 12, the most significant melt event since 1889, and 79.2% on July 29) and summer ice sheet runoff ~3.9 σ above the 1958-2011 mean resulted in enhanced summer ice motion relative to the average melt year of 2009. However, despite record summer melting, subsequent reduced winter ice motion resulted in 6% less net annual ice motion in 2012 than in 2009. Our findings suggest that surface melt-induced acceleration of land-terminating regions of the ice sheet will remain insignificant even under extreme melting scenarios.

Preferential cooling of hot extremes from cropland albedo management

PubMed Central

Davin, Edouard L.; Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Ciais, Philippe; Olioso, Albert; Wang, Tao

2014-01-01

Changes in agricultural practices are considered a possible option to mitigate climate change. In particular, reducing or suppressing tillage (no-till) may have the potential to sequester carbon in soils, which could help slow global warming. On the other hand, such practices also have a direct effect on regional climate by altering the physical properties of the land surface. These biogeophysical effects, however, are still poorly known. Here we show that no-till management increases the surface albedo of croplands in summer and that the resulting cooling effect is amplified during hot extremes, thus attenuating peak temperatures reached during heat waves. Using a regional climate model accounting for the observed effects of no-till farming on surface albedo, as well as possible reductions in soil evaporation, we investigate the potential consequences of a full conversion to no-till agriculture in Europe. We find that the summer cooling from cropland albedo increase is strongly amplified during hot summer days, when surface albedo has more impact on the Earth’s radiative balance due to clear-sky conditions. The reduced evaporation associated with the crop residue cover tends to counteract the albedo-induced cooling, but during hot days the albedo effect is the dominating factor. For heatwave summer days the local cooling effect gained from no-till practice is of the order of 2 °C. The identified asymmetric impact of surface albedo change on summer temperature opens new avenues for climate-engineering measures targeting high-impact events rather than mean climate properties. PMID:24958872

Installation Restoration Program Records Search for George Air Force Base, California

DTIC Science & Technology

1982-06-01

located in the Mojave Desert. The climate is arid with long hot summers and short cool winters. The mean 3relative humidity ranges from 27 percent in...abitat Native plant and animal comunities on base reflect the dry climatic conditions of an upland desert region. Along the eastern border of the bas...soil conditions because of a low ground- water table and the dry climatic conditions. While native systems are disrupted in the immediate vicinity of

Glacioclimatological study of Perennial Ice in the Fuji Ice Cave, Japan. Part I. Seasonal variation and mechanism of maintenance

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ohata, Tetsuo; Furukawa, Teruo; Higuchi, Keiji

1994-08-01

Perennial cave ice in a cave located at Mt. Fuji in central Japan was studied to investigate the basic characteristics and the cause for existence of such ice under warm ground-level climate considering the ice cave as a thermal and hydrological system. Fuji Ice Cave is a lava tube cave 150 m in length with a collapsed part at the entrance. Measurements from 1984 to 1986 showed that the surface-level change of floor ice occurred due to freezing and melting at the surface and that melting at the bottom of the ice was negligible. The annual amplitude of change inmore » surface level was larger near the entrance. Meterological data showed that the cold air inflow to the cave was strong in winter, but in summer the cave was maintained near 0[degrees]C with only weak inflow of warm air. The predominant wind system was from the entrance to the interior in both winter and summer, but the spatial scale of the wind system was different. Heat budget consideration of the cave showed that the largest component was the strong inflow of subzero dry air mass in winter. Cooling in winter was compensated for by summer inflow of warm air, heat transport from the surrounding ground layer, and loss of sensible heat due to cooling of the cave for the observed year. Strong inflow of cold air and weak inflow of warm air, which is extremely low compared to the ground level air, seemed to be the most important condition. Thus the thermal condition of the cave is quasi-balanced at the presence condition below 0[degrees]C with ice. It can be said that the interrelated result of the climatological and special structural conditions makes this cave very cold, and allows perennial ice to exist in the cave. Other climatological factors such as precipitation seem to be minor factors. 17 refs., 3 figs., 3 tabs.« less

Millennium-scale crossdating and inter-annual climate sensitivities of standing California redwoods.

PubMed

Carroll, Allyson L; Sillett, Stephen C; Kramer, Russell D

2014-01-01

Extremely decay-resistant wood and fire-resistant bark allow California's redwoods to accumulate millennia of annual growth rings that can be useful in biological research. Whereas tree rings of Sequoiadendron giganteum (SEGI) helped formalize the study of dendrochronology and the principle of crossdating, those of Sequoia sempervirens (SESE) have proven much more difficult to decipher, greatly limiting dendroclimatic and other investigations of this species. We overcame these problems by climbing standing trees and coring trunks at multiple heights in 14 old-growth forest locations across California. Overall, we sampled 1,466 series with 483,712 annual rings from 120 trees and were able to crossdate 83% of SESE compared to 99% of SEGI rings. Standard and residual tree-ring chronologies spanning up to 1,685 years for SESE and 1,538 years for SEGI were created for each location to evaluate crossdating and to examine correlations between annual growth and climate. We used monthly values of temperature, precipitation, and drought severity as well as summer cloudiness to quantify potential drivers of inter-annual growth variation over century-long time series at each location. SESE chronologies exhibited a latitudinal gradient of climate sensitivities, contrasting cooler northern rainforests and warmer, drier southern forests. Radial growth increased with decreasing summer cloudiness in northern rainforests and a central SESE location. The strongest dendroclimatic relationship occurred in our southernmost SESE location, where radial growth correlated negatively with dry summer conditions and exhibited responses to historic fires. SEGI chronologies showed negative correlations with June temperature and positive correlations with previous October precipitation. More work is needed to understand quantitative relationships between SEGI radial growth and moisture availability, particularly snowmelt. Tree-ring chronologies developed here for both redwood species have numerous scientific applications, including determination of tree ages, accurate dating of fire-return intervals, archaeology, analyses of stable isotopes, long-term climate reconstructions, and quantifying rates of carbon sequestration.

Understanding the land-atmospheric interaction in drought forecast from CFSv2 for the 2011 Texas and 2012 Upper Midwest US droughts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Y.; Roundy, J. K.; Ek, M. B.; Wood, E. F.

2015-12-01

Prediction and thus preparedness in advance of hydrological extremes, such as drought and flood events, is crucial for proactively reducing their social and economic impacts. In the summers of 2011 Texas, and 2012 the Upper Midwest, experienced intense droughts that affected crops and the food market in the US. It is expected that seasonal forecasts with sufficient skill would reduce the negative impacts through planning and preparation. However, the forecast skill from models such as Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2) from National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) is low over the US, especially during the warm season (Jun - Sep), which restricts their practical use for drought prediction. This study analyzes the processes that lead to premature termination of 2011 and 2012 US summer droughts in CFSv2 forecast resulting in its low forecast skill. Using the North American Land Data Assimilation System version 2 (NLDAS2) and Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) as references, this study investigates the forecast skills of CFSv2 initialized at 00, 06, 12, 18z from May 15 - 31 (leads out to September) for each event in terms of land-atmosphere interaction, through a recently developed Coupling Drought Index (CDI), which is based on the Convective Triggering Potential-Humidity Index-soil moisture (CTP-HI-SM) classification of four climate regimes: wet coupling, dry coupling, transitional and atmospherically controlled. A recycling model is used to trace the moisture sources in the CFSv2 forecasts of anomalous precipitation, which lead to the breakdown of drought conditions and a lack of drought forecasting skills. This is then compared with tracing the moisture source in CFSR with the same recycling model, which is used as the verification for the same periods. This helps to identify the parameterization that triggered precipitation in CFSv2 during 2011 and 2012 summer in the US thus has the potential to improve the forecast skill of CSFv2.

Millennium-Scale Crossdating and Inter-Annual Climate Sensitivities of Standing California Redwoods

PubMed Central

Carroll, Allyson L.; Sillett, Stephen C.; Kramer, Russell D.

2014-01-01

Extremely decay-resistant wood and fire-resistant bark allow California’s redwoods to accumulate millennia of annual growth rings that can be useful in biological research. Whereas tree rings of Sequoiadendron giganteum (SEGI) helped formalize the study of dendrochronology and the principle of crossdating, those of Sequoia sempervirens (SESE) have proven much more difficult to decipher, greatly limiting dendroclimatic and other investigations of this species. We overcame these problems by climbing standing trees and coring trunks at multiple heights in 14 old-growth forest locations across California. Overall, we sampled 1,466 series with 483,712 annual rings from 120 trees and were able to crossdate 83% of SESE compared to 99% of SEGI rings. Standard and residual tree-ring chronologies spanning up to 1,685 years for SESE and 1,538 years for SEGI were created for each location to evaluate crossdating and to examine correlations between annual growth and climate. We used monthly values of temperature, precipitation, and drought severity as well as summer cloudiness to quantify potential drivers of inter-annual growth variation over century-long time series at each location. SESE chronologies exhibited a latitudinal gradient of climate sensitivities, contrasting cooler northern rainforests and warmer, drier southern forests. Radial growth increased with decreasing summer cloudiness in northern rainforests and a central SESE location. The strongest dendroclimatic relationship occurred in our southernmost SESE location, where radial growth correlated negatively with dry summer conditions and exhibited responses to historic fires. SEGI chronologies showed negative correlations with June temperature and positive correlations with previous October precipitation. More work is needed to understand quantitative relationships between SEGI radial growth and moisture availability, particularly snowmelt. Tree-ring chronologies developed here for both redwood species have numerous scientific applications, including determination of tree ages, accurate dating of fire-return intervals, archaeology, analyses of stable isotopes, long-term climate reconstructions, and quantifying rates of carbon sequestration. PMID:25029026

Rainfall characterisation by application of standardised precipitation index (SPI) in Peninsular Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yusof, Fadhilah; Hui-Mean, Foo; Suhaila, Jamaludin; Yusop, Zulkifli; Ching-Yee, Kong

2014-02-01

The interpretations of trend behaviour for dry and wet events are analysed in order to verify the dryness and wetness episodes. The fitting distribution of rainfall is computed to classify the dry and wet events by applying the standardised precipitation index (SPI). The rainfall amount for each station is categorised into seven categories, namely extremely wet, severely wet, moderately wet, near normal, moderately dry, severely dry and extremely dry. The computation of the SPI is based on the monsoon periods, which include the northeast monsoon, southwest monsoon and inter-monsoon. The trends of the dry and wet periods were then detected using the Mann-Kendall trend test and the results indicate that the major parts of Peninsular Malaysia are characterised by increasing droughts rather than wet events. The annual trends of drought and wet events of the randomly selected stations from each region also yield similar results. Hence, the northwest and southwest regions are predicted to have a higher probability of drought occurrence during a dry event and not much rain during the wet event. The east and west regions, on the other hand, are going through a significant upward trend that implies lower rainfall during the drought episodes and heavy rainfall during the wet events.

Late Holocene vegetation and ocean variability in the Gulf of Oman

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miller, Charlotte S.; Leroy, Suzanne A. G.; Collins, Philip E. F.; Lahijani, Hamid A. K.

2016-07-01

Fossil pollen and dinocyst records in marine sequences are frequently combined to reveal the response of vegetation and ocean conditions to changes in both regional and global climate. In this study we analysed pollen and dinocysts within a clearly-laminated sediment core off the Iranian coast in the Gulf of Oman, an extremely data-poor area, to reconstruct climatic change during the Late Holocene (last 1900 years). The vegetation record from southern Iran indicates a replacement of savannah by desert formations at c. 910 CE, shortly after the Islamic invasion and the subsequent collapse of the Sassanid Empire. From c. 910 to 1145 CE, during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA), the vegetation was heavily dominated by desert formations, such as Amaranthaceae, Caryophyllaceae, Asteraceae, Centaurea and Calligonum. In parallel, in the Gulf of Oman, the presence of Impagidinium paradoxum indicates a lack of freshwater discharge into the ocean around this time. The desert taxa of the MCA were subsequently replaced by savannah formations at c. 1145 CE, comprised mainly of Poaceae and Cyperaceae, corresponding to the Little Ice Age (LIA), indicating generally wetter climatic conditions. A sudden increase in Spiniferites ramosus (1-63%), at c. 1440 CE suggests an increase in the strength of the SW summer monsoon, with increased freshwater discharge into the ocean at this time. Our data indicate that over the past two millennia the NW Arabian Sea region has alternated between contrasting climatic conditions, with firstly a humid phase equivalent to the cultural period of the Sassanid Empire, a significantly drier climate during the MCA and a relatively wetter climate during the LIA. The mechanisms resulting in dry conditions during the MCA in the Middle East associated with the northward shift of the ITCZ and the intensification of the Indian summer monsoon may be similar to those causing the dry conditions which dominated the Early Holocene in the Near East. Our palaeoenvironmental proxy data support current observations that a globally anthropogenically-induced warmer climate is likely to lead to increased drought severity in the Middle East, putting additional stress on governments already struggling with poverty and social tensions.

Recherche d'une politique de gestion des stocks d'eau de barrages-réservoirs en vue de soutenir les étiages. 1. Élaboration d'un modèle alterné annuel apports-déficits

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bocquillon, C.; Masson, J. M.

1983-01-01

Lack of water supply during periods of deficient flow affects the economic potentiality of the great river valleys which are the most developed areas in the country. Reservoir dams built in the upper stream catchments store excess flow and provide controlled release in the dry season. Capital costs of construction and the consequences of failures justify a thorough study of operating rules. The low flows and conditional variability of availability of water call for carry-over procedures (reservoir capacity is sometimes greater than the mean available water). It is not possible to predict future sequence of flows, thus the carry-over rule is a statistical decision-making tool. The flow data are only one of the very many possible sources of information. But the analysis of flow data provides us with statistical measures to generate long series of synthetic inflows associated with summer deficits. A simplification has been introduced by choosing only the values which are absolutely necessary for optimal management research: available water volumes and reserve volumes for a flow threshold. Yearly alternate periods of excess and deficiency of water are defined by the values above and below a threshold of flow discharge at a location gage named "objective point", where the reservoir effects are to be estimated. Yearly periods are described by water volumes, either inflows into reservoirs, or deficits below various thresholds of summer flow discharges. Marginal and conditional probability distributions of these volumes and the physical laws which mark their bounds and relationships were estimated on the basis of 31 years of daily flow records. The synthetic simulated series for 1000 years was compared to records of historical levels (since 1863). Extreme events such as sequences of dry years, have return periods of comparable magnitude. This synthetic series has a similar statistical character of short historical series and makes the analysis of operating rules possible.

Warm & wet or warm & dry? - A tree-ring based drought reconstruction from the European lowlands with emphasis on the medieval climate anomaly

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scharnweber, Tobias; Heinrich, Ingo; van der Maaten, Ernst; Heußner, Karl-Uwe; Wilmking, Martin

2016-04-01

Recent advances in reconstructing natural drought variability in Europe, such as the 'Old world drought atlas' (Cook et al., 2015), have sharpened our picture of historical hydroclimatic variability. However, our knowledge lacks high spatial resolution, especially for the northern non-arid regions. For example, it is still under debate if the so called medieval climate anomaly (MCA; ~950-1300 AD), a period of warm temperatures comparable to the contemporary warm phase, was likewise accompanied by increased drought occurrence, or, on the contrary, was rather wet (e.g. Kress et al., 2014). Here, we present a new millennial long drought reconstruction based on a unique dataset of tree rings from historical and modern beech wood from the northeastern European lowlands. Beech has a stable and strong regional summer drought signal over the calibration period of instrumental data (r>0.7 with drought index PDSI over 1900-2010) which, in contrast to other species such as oak, is consistent irrespective of the site/soil conditions the trees grew in. It can be assumed that during medieval times beech wood was available locally and not traded long distances. This strongly reduces the possibility that the new reconstruction mixes different signals of the possibly high spatial variability of precipitation. The extremely high replication of our chronology for the period 1000-1300 AD (peak in town foundations in NE-Germany) with more than 600 series enables a direct comparison with the well replicated recent period 1800-2010. In contrast to the results of Kress et al. (2014) for the Swiss Alps, but in accordance with the 'Old world drought atlas', our first results point at a rather dry and warm MCA in NE-Germany. In addition they support the observation that the hydroclimate of the twentieth century was highly variable compared with the last millennium. References Cook ER, Seager R, Kushnir Y, et al. (2015) Old World megadroughts and pluvials during the Common Era. Science advances 1(10), e1500561. Kress A, Hangartner S, Bugmann H, et al. (2014) Swiss tree rings reveal warm and wet summers during medieval times. Geophysical Research Letters 41(5), 1732-1737.

Selection of extreme environmental conditions, albedo coefficient and Earth infrared radiation, for polar summer Long Duration Balloon missions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

González-Llana, Arturo; González-Bárcena, David; Pérez-Grande, Isabel; Sanz-Andrés, Ángel

2018-07-01

The selection of the extreme thermal environmental conditions -albedo coefficient and Earth infrared radiation- for the thermal design of stratospheric balloon missions is usually based on the methodologies applied in space missions. However, the particularities of stratospheric balloon missions, such as the much higher residence time of the balloon payload over a determined area, make necessary an approach centered in the actual environment the balloon is going to find, in terms of geographic area and season of flight. In this sense, this work is focussed on stratospheric balloon missions circumnavigating the North Pole during the summer period. Pairs of albedo and Earth infrared radiation satellite data restricted to this area and season of interest have been treated statistically. Furthermore, the environmental conditions leading to the extreme temperatures of the payload depend in turn on the surface finish, and more particularly on the ratio between the solar absorptance and the infrared emissivity α/ε. A simple but representative thermal model of a balloon and its payload has been set up in order to identify the pairs of albedo coefficient and Earth infrared radiation leading to extreme temperatures for each value of α/ε.

Contribution of hydraulically lifted deep moisture to the water budget in a Southern California mixed forest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kitajima, Kuni; Allen, Michael F.; Goulden, Michael L.

2013-12-01

and shrubs growing in California's mountains rely on deep roots to survive the hot and dry Mediterranean climate summer. The shallow montane soil cannot hold enough water to support summer transpiration, and plants must access deeper moisture from the weathered bedrock. We used the HYDRUS-1D model to simulate the moisture flux through the soil-plant continuum in Southern California's San Jacinto Mountains. The mechanisms facilitating deep water access are poorly understood, and it is possible that either or both hydraulic lift and capillary rise contribute to the survival and activity of trees and soil microorganisms. We modified HYDRUS to incorporate hydraulic lift and drove it with meteorological and physiological data. The modeled quantity of water lifted hydraulically ranged from near zero during the wet months to ~28 mm month-1 in midsummer. Likewise, modeled capillary rise was negligible during the winter and averaged ~15 mm month-1 during June through November. Both mechanisms provided water to support evapotranspiration during the dry months. Isotopic measurements of xylem water for eight shrub and tree species confirmed the importance of a deep source of water. Conventional and automated minirhizotron observations showed that fine-root and rhizomorph biomass remained relatively constant year-round, while mycorrhizal hyphae biomass varied markedly, peaking in the wet season and declining by ~70% in the dry season. Model results predict that hydraulic lift and capillary rise play key roles in Southern California's mountains: they support evapotranspiration and photosynthesis during the summer drought; they contribute to the year-round survival of fine roots and soil microorganisms.

On the twenty-first-century wet season projections over the Southeastern United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Selman, Christopher; Misra, Vasu; Stefanova, Lydia; Dinapoli, Steven; Smith, Thomas J.

2013-01-01

This paper reconciles the difference in the projections of the wet season over the Southeastern United States (SEUS) from a global climate model (the Community Climate System Model Version 3 [CCSM3]) and from a regional climate model (the Regional Spectral Model [RSM]) nested in the CCSM3. The CCSM3 projects a dipole in the summer precipitation anomaly: peninsular Florida dries in the future climate, and the remainder of the SEUS region becomes wetter. The RSM forced with CCSM3 projects a universal drying of the SEUS in the late twenty-first century relative to the corresponding twentieth-century summer. The CCSM3 pattern is attributed to the “upped-ante” mechanism, whereby the atmospheric boundary layer moisture required for convection increases in a warm, statically stable global tropical environment. This criterion becomes harder to meet along convective margins, which include peninsular Florida, resulting in its drying. CCSM3 also projects a southwestward expansion of the North Atlantic subtropical high that leads to further stabilizing of the atmosphere above Florida, inhibiting convection. The RSM, because of its high (10-km grid) resolution, simulates diurnal variations in summer rainfall over SEUS reasonably well. The RSM improves upon CCSM3 through the RSM’s depiction of the diurnal variance of precipitation, which according to observations accounts for up to 40 % of total seasonal precipitation variance. In the future climate, the RSM projects a significant reduction in the diurnal variability of convection. The reduction is attributed to large-scale stabilization of the atmosphere in the CCSM3 projections.

Phenophysiological variation of a bee that regulates hive humidity, but not hive temperature.

PubMed

Ayton, Sasha; Tomlinson, Sean; Phillips, Ryan D; Dixon, Kingsley W; Withers, Philip C

2016-05-15

Seasonal acclimatisation of thermal tolerance, evaporative water loss and metabolic rate, along with regulation of the hive environment, are key ways whereby hive-based social insects mediate climatic challenges throughout the year, but the relative importance of these traits remains poorly understood. Here, we examined seasonal variation in metabolic rate and evaporative water loss of worker bees, and seasonal variation of hive temperature and relative humidity (RH), for the stingless bee Austroplebeia essingtoni (Apidae: Meliponini) in arid tropical Australia. Both water loss and metabolic rate were lower in the cooler, dry winter than in the hot, wet summer at most ambient temperatures between 20°C and 45°C. Contrary to expectation, thermal tolerance thresholds were higher in the winter than in the summer. Hives were cooler in the cooler, dry winter than in the hot, wet summer, linked to an apparent lack of hive thermoregulation. The RH of hives was regulated at approximately 65% in both seasons, which is higher than unoccupied control hives in the dry season, but less than unoccupied control hives in the wet season. Although adaptations to promote water balance appear more important for survival of A. essingtoni than traits related to temperature regulation, their capacity for water conservation is coincident with increased thermal tolerance. For these small, eusocial stingless bees in the arid tropics, where air temperatures are relatively high and stable compared with temperate areas, regulation of hive humidity appears to be of more importance than temperature for maintaining hive health. © 2016. Published by The Company of Biologists Ltd.

Drought, Frost, Rain and Sunshine. Four Years of Sap Flow Measurements for One of the World's Largest Conifers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Macinnis-Ng, C.; Taylor, D. T.; Kaplick, J.; Clearwater, M.

2015-12-01

Amongst the largest and longest lived conifers in the world, the endemic New Zealand kauri, Agathis australis, provides a proxy-climate record dating back 4000 y. Tree-ring widths provide a strong indicator of the occurrence of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. We are measuring physiological processes, including carbon uptake and loss, leaf-scale gas exchange and sap flow together with meteorological data to explore the mechanisms of the climate response of this iconic and culturally significant species. In this continuous 15 min time interval sap flow dataset spanning four years, we have captured very wet and very dry summer periods. Winter flow rates peaked lower than summer flow rates and winter flow also started later and finished earlier in the day, resulting in less water use. Larger, canopy dominant trees (DBH up to 176 cm) had large sapwood area (sapwood depth up to 18 cm) and faster flow rates and therefore dominated stand water use. During dry periods, smaller trees (DBH 20-80 cm) were more responsive to dry soils than larger trees, suggesting access to deeper soil water stores. Leaf-scale gas exchange rates were low with very low stomatal conductance values reflecting known vulnerability to xylem embolism. Night-time refilling of sapwood was particularly evident during the summer drought with evidence that refilling was incomplete as the drought progressed. Photosynthetically active radiation and vapour pressure deficit are strongly correlated with sap flow across all seasons, a promising indicator for future modelling work on this dataset. Water saving strategies and stand-scale water budgets are discussed.

Parameters influencing the regeneration of a green roof's retention capacity via evapotranspiration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Poë, Simon; Stovin, Virginia; Berretta, Christian

2015-04-01

The extent to which the finite hydrological capacity of a green roof is available for retention of a storm event largely determines the scale of its contribution as a Sustainable Drainage System (SuDS). Evapotranspiration (ET) regenerates the retention capacity at a rate that is variably influenced by climate, vegetation treatment, soil and residual moisture content. Experimental studies have been undertaken to monitor the drying cycle behaviour of 9 different extensive green roof configurations with 80 mm substrate depth. A climate-controlled chamber at the University of Sheffield replicated typical UK spring and summer diurnal cycles. The mass of each microcosm, initially at field capacity, was continuously recorded, with changes inferred to be moisture loss/gain (or ET/dew). The ranges of cumulative ET following a 28 day dry weather period (ADWP) were 0.6-1.0 mm/day in spring and 0.7-1.25 mm/day in summer. These ranges reflect the influence of configuration on ET. Cumulative ET was highest from substrates with the greatest storage capacity. Significant differences in ET existed between vegetated and non-vegetated configurations. Initially, seasonal mean ET was affected by climate. Losses were 2.0 mm/day in spring and 3.4 mm/day in summer. However, moisture availability constrained ET, which fell to 1.4 mm/day then 1.0 mm/day (with an ADWP of 7 and 14 days) in spring; compared to 1.0 mm/day and 0.5 mm/day in summer. A modelling approach, which factors Potential Evapotranspiration (PET) according to stored moisture content, predicts daily ET with very good accuracy (PBIAS = 2.0% [spring]; -0.8% [summer]).

Cannon AFB, Clovis, New Mexico. Revised Uniform Summary of Surface Weather Observations (RUSSWO), Parts A-F

DTIC Science & Technology

1975-06-16

dry -bulb temperature, means and standard d~viatinne nf eirg-hiiih- wM~e-.h,lh (y DD 1473 ~ UNCLASSIFIED SECURIS- CLASSIFICATION OF THIS PAGE(Ifnon...Val. Entoted) 19. Percentqge frequency of distribution tables Dry -bulb temperature versus wet-bulb temperature Cumulative percentage frequency of...ATMOSPHERIC PHENOMENA EXTREME MAX & MIN TEMP PART B PRECIPITATION PSYCHROMETRIC- DRY VS WET BULB SNOWFALL MEAN & STD DEV - ( DRY BULB, WET BULB, & DEW

Analysis of the Impact of Climate Change on Extreme Hydrological Events in California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ashraf Vaghefi, Saeid; Abbaspour, Karim C.

2016-04-01

Estimating magnitude and occurrence frequency of extreme hydrological events is required for taking preventive remedial actions against the impact of climate change on the management of water resources. Examples include: characterization of extreme rainfall events to predict urban runoff, determination of river flows, and the likely severity of drought events during the design life of a water project. In recent years California has experienced its most severe drought in recorded history, causing water stress, economic loss, and an increase in wildfires. In this paper we describe development of a Climate Change Toolkit (CCT) and demonstrate its use in the analysis of dry and wet periods in California for the years 2020-2050 and compare the results with the historic period 1975-2005. CCT provides four modules to: i) manage big databases such as those of Global Climate Models (GCMs), ii) make bias correction using observed local climate data , iii) interpolate gridded climate data to finer resolution, and iv) calculate continuous dry- and wet-day periods based on rainfall, temperature, and soil moisture for analysis of drought and flooding risks. We used bias-corrected meteorological data of five GCMs for extreme CO2 emission scenario rcp8.5 for California to analyze the trend of extreme hydrological events. The findings indicate that frequency of dry period will increase in center and southern parts of California. The assessment of the number of wet days and the frequency of wet periods suggests an increased risk of flooding in north and north-western part of California, especially in the coastal strip. Keywords: Climate Change Toolkit (CCT), Extreme Hydrological Events, California

Temperate tree species show identical response in tree water deficit but different sensitivities in sap flow to summer soil drying.

PubMed

Brinkmann, Nadine; Eugster, Werner; Zweifel, Roman; Buchmann, Nina; Kahmen, Ansgar

2016-12-01

Temperate forests are expected to be particularly vulnerable to drought and soil drying because they are not adapted to such conditions and perform best in mesic environments. Here we ask (i) how sensitively four common temperate tree species (Fagus sylvatica, Picea abies, Acer pseudoplatanus and Fraxinus excelsior) respond in their water relations to summer soil drying and seek to determine (ii) if species-specific responses to summer soil drying are related to the onset of declining water status across the four species. Throughout 2012 and 2013 we determined tree water deficit (TWD) as a proxy for tree water status from recorded stem radius changes and monitored sap flow rates with sensors on 16 mature trees studied in the field at Lägeren, Switzerland. All tree species responded equally in their relative maximum TWD to the onset of declining soil moisture. This implies that the water supply of all tree species was affected by declining soil moisture and that none of the four species was able to fully maintain its water status, e.g., by access to alternative water sources in the soil. In contrast we found strong and highly species-specific responses of sap flow to declining soil moisture with the strongest decline in P. abies (92%), followed by F. sylvatica (53%) and A. pseudoplatanus (48%). F. excelsior did not significantly reduce sap flow. We hypothesize the species-specific responses in sap flow to declining soil moisture that occur despite a simultaneous increase in relative TWD in all species reflect how fast these species approach critical levels of their water status, which is most likely influenced by species-specific traits determining the hydraulic properties of the species tree. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

The use of early summer mosquito surveillance to predict late summer West Nile virus activity

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ginsberg, Howard S.; Rochlin, Ilia; Campbell, Scott R.

2010-01-01

Utility of early-season mosquito surveillance to predict West Nile virus activity in late summer was assessed in Suffolk County, NY. Dry ice-baited CDC miniature light traps paired with gravid traps were set weekly. Maximum-likelihood estimates of WNV positivity, minimum infection rates, and % positive pools were generally well correlated. However, positivity in gravid traps was not correlated with positivity in CDC light traps. The best early-season predictors of WNV activity in late summer (estimated using maximum-likelihood estimates of Culex positivity in August and September) were early date of first positive pool, low numbers of mosquitoes in July, and low numbers of mosquito species in July. These results suggest that early-season entomological samples can be used to predict WNV activity later in the summer, when most human cases are acquired. Additional research is needed to establish which surveillance variables are most predictive and to characterize the reliability of the predictions.

Skilful Seasonal Predictions of Summer European Rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dunstone, Nick; Smith, Doug; Scaife, Adam; Hermanson, Leon; Fereday, David; O'Reilly, Chris; Stirling, Alison; Eade, Rosie; Gordon, Margaret; MacLachlan, Craig; Woollings, Tim; Sheen, Katy; Belcher, Stephen

2018-04-01

Year-to-year variability in Northern European summer rainfall has profound societal and economic impacts; however, current seasonal forecast systems show no significant forecast skill. Here we show that skillful predictions are possible (r 0.5, p < 0.001) using the latest high-resolution Met Office near-term prediction system over 1960-2017. The model predictions capture both low-frequency changes (e.g., wet summers 2007-2012) and some of the large individual events (e.g., dry summer 1976). Skill is linked to predictable North Atlantic sea surface temperature variability changing the supply of water vapor into Northern Europe and so modulating convective rainfall. However, dynamical circulation variability is not well predicted in general—although some interannual skill is found. Due to the weak amplitude of the forced model signal (likely caused by missing or weak model responses), very large ensembles (>80 members) are required for skillful predictions. This work is promising for the development of European summer rainfall climate services.

Variability of extreme rainfall over La Plata Basin and Amazon Basin in South America in model simulations of the 20th century and projections under global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cavalcanti, I. F.

2011-12-01

The two largest river basins in South America are Amazon Basin (AMB) in the tropical region and La Plata Basin (LPB) in subtropical and extratropical regions. Extreme droughts have occurred during this decade in Amazonia region which have affected the transportation, fishing activities with impacts in the local population, and also affecting the forest. Droughts or floods over LPB have impacts on agriculture, hydroelectricity power and social life. Therefore, monthly wet and dry extremes in these two regions have a profound effect on the economy and society. Observed rainfall over Amazon Basin (AMB) and La Plata Basin (LPB) is analyzed in monthly timescale using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), from 1979 to 1999. This period is taken to compare GPCP data with HADCM3 simulations (Hadley Centre) of the 20th century and to analyze reanalyses data which have the contribution of satellite information after 1979. HADCM3 projections using SRES A2 scenario is analyzed in two periods: 2000 to 2020 and 2079 to 2099 to study the extremes frequency in a near future and in a longer timescale. Extreme, severe and moderate cases are identified in the northern and southern sectors of LPB and in the western and eastern sectors of AMB. The main objective is to analyze changes in the frequency of cases, considering the global warming and the associated mechanisms. In the observations for the 20th century, the number of extreme rainy cases is higher than the number of dry cases in both sectors of LPB and AMB. The model simulates this variability in the two sectors of LPB and in the west sector of AMB. In the near future 2000 to 2020 the frequency of wet and dry extremes does not change much in LPB and in the western sector of AMB, but the wet cases increase in the eastern AMB. However, in the period of 2079 to 2099 the projections indicate increase of wet cases in LPB and increase of dry cases in AMB. The influence of large scale features related to Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies, Walker and Hadley circulations, teleconnections, as well as the regional features related to humidity flux are discussed. The extreme droughts of 2005 and 2010 in Amazonia are show to be related to these features.

Lysosomal responses to heat-shock of seasonal temperature extremes in Cd-exposed mussels.

PubMed

Múgica, M; Izagirre, U; Marigómez, I

2015-07-01

The present study was aimed at determining the effect of temperature extremes on lysosomal biomarkers in mussels exposed to a model toxic pollutant (Cd) at different seasons. For this purpose, temperature was elevated 10°C (from 12°C to 22°C in winter and from 18°C to 28°C in summer) for a period of 6h (heat-shock) in control and Cd-exposed mussels, and then returned back to initial one. Lysosomal membrane stability and lysosomal structural changes in digestive gland were investigated. In winter, heat-shock reduced the labilisation period (LP) of the lysosomal membrane, especially in Cd-exposed mussels, and provoked transient lysosomal enlargement. LP values recovered after the heat-shock cessation but lysosomal enlargement prevailed in both experimental groups. In summer, heat-shock induced remarkable reduction in LP and lysosomal enlargement (more markedly in Cd-exposed mussels), which recovered within 3 days. Besides, whilst heat-shock effects on LP were practically identical for Cd-exposed mussels in winter and summer, the effects were longer-lasting in summer than in winter for control mussels. Thus, lysosomal responsiveness after heat-shock was higher in summer than in winter but recovery was faster as well, and therefore the consequences of the heat shock seem to be more decisive in winter. In contrast, inter-season differences were attenuated in the presence of Cd. Consequently, mussels seem to be better prepared in summer than in winter to stand short periods of abrupt temperature change; this is, however, compromised when mussels are exposed to pollutants such as Cd. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The sources of trace element pollution of dry depositions nearby a drinking water source.

PubMed

Guo, Xinyue; Ji, Hongbing; Li, Cai; Gao, Yang; Ding, Huaijian; Tang, Lei; Feng, Jinguo

2017-02-01

Miyun Reservoir is one of the most important drinking water sources for Beijing. Thirteen atmospheric PM sampling sites were established around this reservoir to analyze the mineral composition, morphological characteristics, element concentration, and sources of atmospheric PM pollution, using transmission electron microscope, X-ray diffraction, and inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry analyses. The average monthly dry deposition flux of aerosols was 15.18 g/m 2 , with a range of 5.78-47.56 g/m 2 . The maximum flux season was winter, followed by summer, autumn, and spring. Zn and Pb pollution in this area was serious, and some of the sample sites had Cr, Co, Ni, and Cu pollution. Deposition fluxes of Zn/Pb in winter and summer reached 99.77/143.63 and 17.04/33.23 g/(hm 2 month), respectively. Principal component analysis showed two main components in the dry deposition; the first was Cr, Co, Ni, Cu, and Zn, and the other was Pb and Cd. Principal sources of the trace elements were iron mining and other anthropogenic activities in the surrounding areas and mountainous area north of the reservoir. Mineralogy analysis and microscopic conformation results showed many iron minerals and some unweathered minerals in dry deposition and atmospheric particulate matter, which came from an iron ore yard in the northern mountainous area of Miyun County. There was possible iron-rich dry deposition into Miyun Reservoir, affecting its water quality and harming the health of people living in areas around the reservoir and Beijing.

Thermal protective uniforms and hoods: impact of design modifications and water content on burn prevention in New York City firefighters: laboratory and field results

PubMed Central

Prezant, D; Malley, K; Barker, R; Guerth, C; Kelly, K

2001-01-01

Objectives—To determine (1) the effectiveness of hoods in reducing head burns, (2) the impact of clothes worn under the protective outer uniform (modern = long sleeve shirt and long pants; modified modern = short sleeve T-shirt and short pants) on burns, and (3) whether water content (dry, damp or saturated) affects the level of thermal protection. Setting—Fire Department of the City of New York (FDNY). Methods—Laboratory tests (fully dressed manikin) evaluated the different uniform and water conditions when exposed to an average 24 cal/cm2 heat flux, approximately 2250°F air temperature. FDNY field results compared (1) head burns during winters wearing the hood to winters without hood and (2) upper and lower extremity burns during summers wearing traditional, modern, and modified modern uniforms. Results—Laboratory tests showed that thermal protection was: (1) dramatically improved by the hood with protection increasing as water content increased and (2) not significantly different between modern and modified modern uniforms, regardless of water content. FDNY field results confirmed these tests showing (1) significant decreases in neck burns (by 54%), ear burns (by 60%), and head burn totals (by 46%) wearing the hood and (2) no significant differences in upper or lower extremity burns wearing modern compared with modified modern uniforms. Conclusions—Based on combined laboratory and field results, we strongly recommend the use of modern thermal protective hoods and the modified modern uniform. PMID:11565971

Triple oxygen isotopes indicate urbanization affects sources of nitrate in wet and dry atmospheric deposition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nelson, David M.; Tsunogai, Urumu; Ding, Dong; Ohyama, Takuya; Komatsu, Daisuke D.; Nakagawa, Fumiko; Noguchi, Izumi; Yamaguchi, Takashi

2018-05-01

Atmospheric nitrate deposition resulting from anthropogenic activities negatively affects human and environmental health. Identifying deposited nitrate that is produced locally vs. that originating from long-distance transport would help inform efforts to mitigate such impacts. However, distinguishing the relative transport distances of atmospheric nitrate in urban areas remains a major challenge since it may be produced locally and/or be transported from upwind regions. To address this uncertainty we assessed spatiotemporal variation in monthly weighted-average Δ17O and δ15N values of wet and dry nitrate deposition during one year at urban and rural sites along the western coast of the northern Japanese island of Hokkaido, downwind of the East Asian continent. Δ17O values of nitrate in wet deposition at the urban site mirrored those of wet and dry deposition at the rural site, ranging between ˜ +23 and +31 ‰ with higher values during winter and lower values in summer, which suggests the greater relative importance of oxidation of NO2 by O3 during winter and OH during summer. In contrast, Δ17O values of nitrate in dry deposition at the urban site were lower (+19 - +25 ‰) and displayed less distinct seasonal variation. Furthermore, the difference between δ15N values of nitrate in wet and dry nitrate deposition was, on average, 3 ‰ greater at the urban than rural site, and Δ17O and δ15N values were correlated for both forms of deposition at both sites with the exception of dry deposition at the urban site. These results suggest that, relative to nitrate in wet and dry deposition in rural environments and wet deposition in urban environments, nitrate in dry deposition in urban environments forms from relatively greater oxidation of NO by peroxy radicals and/or oxidation of NO2 by OH. Given greater concentrations of peroxy radicals and OH in cities, these results imply that dry nitrate deposition results from local NOx emissions more so than wet deposition, which is transported longer distances. These results illustrate the value of stable isotope data for distinguishing the transport distances and reaction pathways of atmospheric nitrate pollution.

Ongoing change of site conditions important for sustainable forest management planning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bidló, András; Horváth, Adrienn; Gulyás, Krisztina; Gálos, Borbála

2016-04-01

Observed tree mortality of the last decades has shown that the vulnerable forest ecosystems are especially affected by the recurrent, long lasting droughts, heat waves and their consequences. From all site conditions climate is changing the fastest, in this way it can be the largest threatening factor in the 21st century. Beyond climate, soil characteristics are playing an important influencing role. Until now, silvicultural technologies and species preferences of many countries are prescribed by binding regulation based on climate conditions that are assumed to be constant over time. Therefore the aim of our research was to investigate the ongoing and projected change of site conditions that are considered to be of primary importance in terms of tree species selection. For a case study region in Hungary (Keszthely Mountains, near to Lake Balaton) long-term climate tendencies have been determined for the period 1961-2100, as well as a detailed soil sample analysis has been carried out including ~100 sites. Results show a 0.5 degree increase of temperature and a 6-7 % decrease of the precipitation amount for the summer months in the last decades. For the future, significant warming and drying of summers is expected. Decrease of the summer precipitation sum can exceed 25 % until the end of the century, probability of extreme hot days may increase. These tendencies together with the unfavourable soil conditions and biotic damages can be the reason of the ongoing forest dieback. One of the characteristic soil type of the region is rendzina with a thin topsoil layer and an unfavourable water holding capacity. These properties are limiting the amount of available water for plants, especially in case of intense precipitation events. Black pine stands planted on rendzinas after many years of grazing; therefore erosion may have played a significant role. Not only microclimate conditions but also soil types show a large diversity within a relatively small distance. However, tree mortality has been observed also in stands on favourable soils (rusty brown forest soil, brown earth, lessivated brown forest soil) because these soil sites can only mitigate the damage of extremes. Consequently, there is ongoing change of site conditions that are important for the sustainable forest management planning. Therefore it is an urgent need to rethink regulations considering the changing climate and soil conditions in order to decide about sustainable tree species preference and to maintain forest cover. Keywords: climate change impacts, forest mortality, adaptation, sustainable forest management planning Acknowledgements: Research is supported by the "Agroclimate.2" (VKSZ_12-1-2013-0034) EU-national joint funded research project.

Spatial Intensity Duration Frequency Relationships Using Hierarchical Bayesian Analysis for Urban Areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rupa, Chandra; Mujumdar, Pradeep

2016-04-01

In urban areas, quantification of extreme precipitation is important in the design of storm water drains and other infrastructure. Intensity Duration Frequency (IDF) relationships are generally used to obtain design return level for a given duration and return period. Due to lack of availability of extreme precipitation data for sufficiently large number of years, estimating the probability of extreme events is difficult. Typically, a single station data is used to obtain the design return levels for various durations and return periods, which are used in the design of urban infrastructure for the entire city. In an urban setting, the spatial variation of precipitation can be high; the precipitation amounts and patterns often vary within short distances of less than 5 km. Therefore it is crucial to study the uncertainties in the spatial variation of return levels for various durations. In this work, the extreme precipitation is modeled spatially using the Bayesian hierarchical analysis and the spatial variation of return levels is studied. The analysis is carried out with Block Maxima approach for defining the extreme precipitation, using Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution for Bangalore city, Karnataka state, India. Daily data for nineteen stations in and around Bangalore city is considered in the study. The analysis is carried out for summer maxima (March - May), monsoon maxima (June - September) and the annual maxima rainfall. In the hierarchical analysis, the statistical model is specified in three layers. The data layer models the block maxima, pooling the extreme precipitation from all the stations. In the process layer, the latent spatial process characterized by geographical and climatological covariates (lat-lon, elevation, mean temperature etc.) which drives the extreme precipitation is modeled and in the prior level, the prior distributions that govern the latent process are modeled. Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm (Metropolis Hastings algorithm within a Gibbs sampler) is used to obtain the samples of parameters from the posterior distribution of parameters. The spatial maps of return levels for specified return periods, along with the associated uncertainties, are obtained for the summer, monsoon and annual maxima rainfall. Considering various covariates, the best fit model is selected using Deviance Information Criteria. It is observed that the geographical covariates outweigh the climatological covariates for the monsoon maxima rainfall (latitude and longitude). The best covariates for summer maxima and annual maxima rainfall are mean summer precipitation and mean monsoon precipitation respectively, including elevation for both the cases. The scale invariance theory, which states that statistical properties of a process observed at various scales are governed by the same relationship, is used to disaggregate the daily rainfall to hourly scales. The spatial maps of the scale are obtained for the study area. The spatial maps of IDF relationships thus generated are useful in storm water designs, adequacy analysis and identifying the vulnerable flooding areas.

Influence of land-atmosphere feedbacks on temperature and precipitation extremes in the GLACE-CMIP5 ensemble

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lorenz, Ruth; Argüeso, Daniel; Donat, Markus G.; Pitman, Andrew J.; van den Hurk, Bart; Berg, Alexis; Lawrence, David M.; Chéruy, Frédérique; Ducharne, Agnès.; Hagemann, Stefan; Meier, Arndt; Milly, P. C. D.; Seneviratne, Sonia I.

2016-01-01

We examine how soil moisture variability and trends affect the simulation of temperature and precipitation extremes in six global climate models using the experimental protocol of the Global Land-Atmosphere Coupling Experiment of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (GLACE-CMIP5). This protocol enables separate examinations of the influences of soil moisture variability and trends on the intensity, frequency, and duration of climate extremes by the end of the 21st century under a business-as-usual (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5) emission scenario. Removing soil moisture variability significantly reduces temperature extremes over most continental surfaces, while wet precipitation extremes are enhanced in the tropics. Projected drying trends in soil moisture lead to increases in intensity, frequency, and duration of temperature extremes by the end of the 21st century. Wet precipitation extremes are decreased in the tropics with soil moisture trends in the simulations, while dry extremes are enhanced in some regions, in particular the Mediterranean and Australia. However, the ensemble results mask considerable differences in the soil moisture trends simulated by the six climate models. We find that the large differences between the models in soil moisture trends, which are related to an unknown combination of differences in atmospheric forcing (precipitation, net radiation), flux partitioning at the land surface, and how soil moisture is parameterized, imply considerable uncertainty in future changes in climate extremes.

Multi-model analysis of precipitation-related climatological extremes for the Carpathian Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kis, Anna; Pongracz, Rita; Bartholy, Judit

2015-04-01

As a consequence of global climate change, both frequency and intensity of climatological and meteorological extremes are likely to change. These will certainly further induce various effects on hydrological extremes. Although more frequent hot weather in summer and overall warmer climatic conditions compared to the past decades are quite straightforward direct consequences of global warming, the effects on precipitation might be less clear because the higher spatial and temporal variabilities might hide robust changing signals. Nevertheless, precipitation is one of the most important meteorological variables since it considerably affects natural ecosystems and cultivated vegetation as well, as most of human activities. Extreme precipitation events - both excessive, intense rainfalls and severe droughts - may result in severe environmental, agricultural, and economical disasters. For instance, excessive precipitation may induce floods, flash-floods, landslides, traffic accidents. On the other hand, the lack of precipitation for extended period and coincidental intense heat wave often lead to severe drought events, which certainly affect agricultural production negatively, and hence, food safety might also be threatened. In order to avoid or at least reduce the effects of these precipitation-related hazards, national and local communities need to develop regional adaptation strategies, and then, act according to them. For this purpose, climatological projections are needed as a scientific basis. Coarse resolution results of global climate model (GCM) simulations must be downscaled to regional and local scales, hence better serving decision-makers' and end-users' needs. Dynamical downscaling technique applies regional climate model (RCM) to provide fine resolution climatological estimations for the future. Thus, in this study 11 completed RCM simulations with 25 km horizontal resolution are used from the ENSEMBLES database taking into account SRES A1B scenario for the 21st century. Before the thorough analysis of several drought- and precipitation-related climate indices (i.e., describing drought events, or intensity of precipitation exceeding different percentile-based or absolute threshold values, respectively), a percentile-based bias correction method was applied to the raw RCM output data, for which the homogenized daily gridded CarpatClim database (1961-2010) served as a reference. Absolute and relative seasonal mean changes of the climate indices are calculated for two future time periods (2021-2050 and 2071-2100) and for three subregions (i.e., Slovakia, Hungary, and Romania) within the entire Carpathian Region. According to our results, longer dry periods are estimated for the summer season, mainly in the southern parts of the domain, while precipitation intensity is likely to increase. Heavy precipitation days and high percentile values are projected to increase in the Carpathian Region, especially, in winter and autumn.

Suppressed mid-latitude summer atmospheric warming by Arctic sea ice loss during 1979-2012

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Q.

2016-12-01

Since the 1980s, rapid Arctic warming, sea ice decline, and weakening summer circulation have coincided with an increasing number of extreme heatwaves and other destructive weather events in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) mid-latitudes in summer. Recent papers disagree about whether such high-impact events are related to Arctic warming and/or ice loss. Here we use atmospheric model ensemble simulations to attribute effects of sea ice loss and other factors on observed summer climate trends during 1979-2012. The ongoing greenhouse gas buildup and resulting sea surface temperature (SST) warming outside the Arctic explains nearly all land warming and a significant portion of observed weakening zonal winds in the NH mid-latitudes. However, sea ice loss has induced a negative Arctic Oscillation (AO)-type circulation with significant summer surface and tropospheric cooling trends over large portions of the NH mid-latitudes, which reduce the warming and might reduce the probability of regional severe hot summers.

Warm summers during the Younger Dryas cold reversal.

PubMed

Schenk, Frederik; Väliranta, Minna; Muschitiello, Francesco; Tarasov, Lev; Heikkilä, Maija; Björck, Svante; Brandefelt, Jenny; Johansson, Arne V; Näslund, Jens-Ove; Wohlfarth, Barbara

2018-04-24

The Younger Dryas (YD) cold reversal interrupts the warming climate of the deglaciation with global climatic impacts. The sudden cooling is typically linked to an abrupt slowdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) in response to meltwater discharges from ice sheets. However, inconsistencies regarding the YD-response of European summer temperatures have cast doubt whether the concept provides a sufficient explanation. Here we present results from a high-resolution global climate simulation together with a new July temperature compilation based on plant indicator species and show that European summers remain warm during the YD. Our climate simulation provides robust physical evidence that atmospheric blocking of cold westerly winds over Fennoscandia is a key mechanism counteracting the cooling impact of an AMOC-slowdown during summer. Despite the persistence of short warm summers, the YD is dominated by a shift to a continental climate with extreme winter to spring cooling and short growing seasons.

Size-dependent survival of brook trout Salvelinus fontinalis in summer: effects of water temperature and stream flow.

PubMed

Xu, C L; Letcher, B H; Nislow, K H

2010-06-01

A 5 year individual-based data set was used to estimate size-specific survival rates in a wild brook trout Salvelinus fontinalis population in a stream network encompassing a mainstem and three tributaries (1.5-6 m wetted width), western Massachusetts, U.S.A. The relationships between survival in summer and temperature and flow metrics derived from continuous monitoring data were then tested. Increased summer temperatures significantly reduced summer survival rates for S. fontinalis in almost all size classes in all four sites throughout the network. In contrast, extreme low summer flows reduced survival of large fish, but only in small tributaries, and had no significant effects on fish in smaller size classes in any location. These results provide direct evidence of a link between season-specific survival and environmental factors likely to be affected by climate change and have important consequences for the management of both habitats and populations.

Projected Changes in Hydrological Extremes in a Cold Region Watershed: Sensitivity of Results to Statistical Methods of Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dibike, Y. B.; Eum, H. I.; Prowse, T. D.

2017-12-01

Flows originating from alpine dominated cold region watersheds typically experience extended winter low flows followed by spring snowmelt and summer rainfall driven high flows. In a warmer climate, there will be temperature- induced shift in precipitation from snow towards rain as well as changes in snowmelt timing affecting the frequency of extreme high and low flow events which could significantly alter ecosystem services. This study examines the potential changes in the frequency and severity of hydrologic extremes in the Athabasca River watershed in Alberta, Canada based on the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model and selected and statistically downscaled climate change scenario data from the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The sensitivity of these projected changes is also examined by applying different extreme flow analysis methods. The hydrological model projections show an overall increase in mean annual streamflow in the watershed and a corresponding shift in the freshet timing to earlier period. Most of the streams are projected to experience increases during the winter and spring seasons and decreases during the summer and early fall seasons, with an overall projected increases in extreme high flows, especially for low frequency events. While the middle and lower parts of the watershed are characterised by projected increases in extreme high flows, the high elevation alpine region is mainly characterised by corresponding decreases in extreme low flow events. However, the magnitude of projected changes in extreme flow varies over a wide range, especially for low frequent events, depending on the climate scenario and period of analysis, and sometimes in a nonlinear way. Nonetheless, the sensitivity of the projected changes to the statistical method of analysis is found to be relatively small compared to the inter-model variability.

Superensemble of a Regional Climate Model for the Western US using Climateprediction.net

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mote, P.; Salahuddin, A.; Allen, M.; Jones, R.

2010-12-01

For over a decade, a citizen science experiment called climateprediction.net organized by Oxford University has used computer time contributed by over 80,000 volunteers around the world to create superensembles of global climate simulations. A new climateprediction.net experiment built by the UK Meteorological Office and Oxford, and released in late summer 2010, brings these computing resources to bear on regional climate modeling for the Western US, western Europe, and southern Africa. For the western US, the spatial resolution of 25km permits important topological features -- mountain ranges and valleys -- to be resolved and to influence simulated climate, which consequently includes many important observed features of climate like the fact that California’s Central Valley is hottest at the north and south ends in summer, and cooler in the middle owing to the maritime influence that leaks through the gap in the coast range in the San Francisco area. We designed the output variables to satisfy both research needs and societal and environmental impacts needs. These include atmospheric circulation on regional and global scales, surface fluxes of energy, and hydrologic variables; extremes of temperature, precipitation, and wind; and derived quantities like frost days and number of consecutive dry days. Early results from pre-release beta testing suggest that the simulated fields compare favorably with available observations, and that the model performs as well in the distributed computing environment as on a dedicated high-performance machine. The advantages of a superensemble in interpreting regional climate change will permit an unprecedented combination of statistical completeness and spatial resolution.

Spatio-temporal activity of lightnings over Greece

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nastos, P. T.; Matsangouras, I. T.; Chronis, T. G.

2012-04-01

Extreme precipitation events are always associated with convective weather conditions driving to intense lightning activity: Cloud to Ground (CG), Ground to Cloud (GC) and Cloud to Cloud (CC). Thus, the study of lightnings, which typically occur during thunderstorms, gives evidence of the spatio-temporal variability of intense precipitation. Lightning is a natural phenomenon in the atmosphere, being a major cause of storm related with deaths and main trigger of forest fires during dry season. Lightning affects the many electrochemical systems of the body causing nerve damage, memory loss, personality change, and emotional problems. Besides, among the various nitrogen oxides sources, the contribution from lightning likely represents the largest uncertainty. An operational lightning detection network (LDN) has been established since 2007 by HNMS, consisting of eight time-of-arrival sensors (TOA), spatially distributed across Greek territory. In this study, the spatial and temporal variability of recorded lightnings (CG, GC and CC) are analyzed over Greece, during the period from January 14, 2008 to December 31, 2009, for the first time. The data for retrieving the location and time-of-occurrence of lightning were acquired from Hellenic National Meteorological Service (HNMS). In addition to the analysis of spatio-temporal activity over Greece, the HNMS-LDN characteristics are also presented. The results of the performed analysis reveal the specific geographical sub-regions associated with lightnings incidence. Lightning activity occurs mainly during the autumn season, followed by summer and spring. Higher frequencies of flashes appear over Ionian and Aegean Sea than over land during winter period against continental mountainous regions during summer period.

Land surface and atmospheric conditions associated with heat waves over the Chickasaw Nation in the South Central United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Eungul; Bieda, Rahama; Shanmugasundaram, Jothiganesh; Basara Richter, Heather

2016-06-01

Exposure to extreme heat was reconstructed based on regional land-atmosphere processes from 1979 to 2010 in the South Central U.S. The study region surrounds the Chickasaw Nation (CN), a predominantly Native American population with a highly prevalent burden of climate-sensitive chronic diseases. Land surface and atmospheric conditions for summer heat waves were analyzed during spring (March-April-May, MAM) and summer (June-July-August, JJA) based on the Climate and Ocean: Variability, Predictability, and Change maximum temperature definition for heat wave frequency (HWF). The spatial-temporal pattern of HWF was determined using empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis and the corresponding principle component time series of the first EOF of HWF. Statistically significant analyses of observed conditions indicated that sensible heat increased and latent heat fluxes decreased with high HWF in the South Central U.S. The largest positive correlations of sensible heat flux to HWF and the largest negative correlations of latent heat flux to HWF were specifically observed over the CN. This is a significantly different energy transfer regime due to less available soil moisture during the antecedent MAM and JJA. The higher sensible heat from dry soil could cause significant warming from the near surface (>2.0°C) to the lower troposphere (>1.5°C), and accumulated boundary layer heat could induce the significant patterns of higher geopotential height and enhance anticyclonic circulations (negative vorticity anomaly) at the midtroposphere. Results suggested a positive land-atmosphere feedback associated with heat waves and called attention to the need for region-specific climate adaptation planning.

Land surface and atmospheric conditions associated with heat waves in the South Central United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Eungul; Bieda, Rahama; Shanmugasundaram, Jothiganesh; Richter, Heather

2017-04-01

Exposure to extreme heat was reconstructed based on regional land-atmosphere processes from 1979 to 2010 in the South Central U.S. The study region surrounds the Chickasaw Nation (CN), a predominantly Native American population with a highly prevalent burden of climate-sensitive chronic diseases. Land surface and atmospheric conditions for summer heat waves were analyzed during spring (March-April-May, MAM) and summer (June-July-August, JJA) based on the Climate and Ocean: Variability, Predictability, and Change maximum temperature definition for heat wave frequency (HWF). The spatial-temporal pattern of HWF was determined using empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis and the corresponding principle component time series of the first EOF of HWF. Statistically significant analyses of observed conditions indicated that sensible heat increased and latent heat fluxes decreased with high HWF in the South Central U.S. The largest positive correlations of sensible heat flux to HWF and the largest negative correlations of latent heat flux to HWF were specifically observed over the CN. This is a significantly different energy transfer regime due to less available soil moisture during the antecedent MAM and JJA. The higher sensible heat from dry soil could cause significant warming from the near surface (> 2.0°C) to the lower troposphere (> 1.5°C), and accumulated boundary layer heat could induce the significant patterns of higher geopotential height and enhance anticyclonic circulations (negative vorticity anomaly) at the midtroposphere. Results suggested a positive land-atmosphere feedback associated with heat waves and called attention to the need for region-specific climate adaptation planning.

Land-atmosphere coupling and climate prediction over the U.S. Southern Great Plains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, I. N.; Lu, Y.; Kueppers, L. M.; Riley, W. J.; Biraud, S.; Bagley, J. E.; Torn, M. S.

2016-12-01

Biases in land-atmosphere coupling in climate models can contribute to climate prediction biases, but land models are rarely evaluated in the context of this coupling. We tested land-atmosphere coupling and explored effects of land surface parameterizations on climate prediction in a single-column version of the NCAR Community Earth System Model (CESM1.2.2) and an offline Community Land Model (CLM4.5). The correlation between leaf area index (LAI) and surface evaporative fraction (ratio of latent to total turbulent heat flux) was substantially underpredicted compared to observations in the U.S. Southern Great Plains, while the correlation between soil moisture and evaporative fraction was overpredicted by CLM4.5. These correlations were improved by prescribing observed LAI, increasing soil resistance to evaporation, increasing minimum stomatal conductance, and increasing leaf reflectance. The modifications reduced the root mean squared error (RMSE) in daytime 2 m air temperature from 3.6 C to 2 C in summer (JJA), and reduced RMSE in total JJA precipitation from 133 to 84 mm. The modifications had the largest effect on prediction of summer drought in 2006, when a warm bias in daytime 2 m air temperature was reduced from +6 C to a smaller cold bias of -1.3 C, and a corresponding dry bias in total JJA precipitation was reduced from -111 mm to -23 mm. Thus, the role of vegetation in droughts and heat waves is likely underpredicted in CESM1.2.2, and improvements in land surface models can improve prediction of climate extremes.

Root distribution of Nitraria sibirica with seasonally varying water sources in a desert habitat.

PubMed

Zhou, Hai; Zhao, Wenzhi; Zheng, Xinjun; Li, Shoujuan

2015-07-01

In water-limited environments, the water sources used by desert shrubs are critical to understanding hydrological processes. Here we studied the oxygen stable isotope ratios (δ (18)O) of stem water of Nitraria sibirica as well as those of precipitation, groundwater and soil water from different layers to identify the possible water sources for the shrub. The results showed that the shrub used a mixture of soil water, recent precipitation and groundwater, with shallow lateral roots and deeply penetrating tap (sinker) roots, in different seasons. During the wet period (in spring), a large proportion of stem water in N. sibirica was from snow melt and recent precipitation, but use of these sources declined sharply with the decreasing summer rain at the site. At the height of summer, N. sibirica mainly utilized deep soil water from its tap roots, not only supporting the growth of shoots but also keeping the shallow lateral roots well-hydrated. This flexibility allowed the plants to maintain normal metabolic processes during prolonged periods when little precipitation occurs and upper soil layers become extremely dry. With the increase in precipitation that occurs as winter approaches, the percentage of water in the stem base of a plant derived from the tap roots (deep soil water or ground water) decreased again. These results suggested that the shrub's root distribution and morphology were the most important determinants of its ability to utilize different water sources, and that its adjustment to water availability was significant for acclimation to the desert habitat.

Differential response of vegetation in Hulun Lake region at the northern margin of Asian summer monsoon to extreme cold events of the last deglaciation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Shengrui; Xiao, Jule; Xu, Qinghai; Wen, Ruilin; Fan, Jiawei; Huang, Yun; Yamagata, Hideki

2018-06-01

The response of vegetation to extreme cold events during the last deglaciation is important for assessing the impact of possible extreme climatic events on terrestrial ecosystems under future global warming scenarios. Here, we present a detailed record of the development of regional vegetation in the northern margin of Asian summer monsoon during the last deglaciation (16,500-11,000 cal yr BP) based on a radiocarbon-dated high-resolution pollen record from Hulun Lake, northeast China. The results show that the regional vegetation changed from subalpine meadow-desert steppe to mixed coniferous and deciduous forest-typical steppe during the last deglaciation. However, its responses to the Heinrich event 1 (H1) and the Younger Dryas event (YD) were significantly different: during the H1 event, scattered sparse forest was present in the surrounding mountains, while within the lake catchment the vegetation cover was poor and was dominated by desert steppe. In contrast, during the YD event, deciduous forest developed and the proportion of coniferous forest increased in the mountains, the lake catchment was occupied by typical steppe. We suggest that changes in Northern Hemisphere summer insolation and land surface conditions (ice sheets and sea level) caused temperature and monsoonal precipitation variations that contributed to the contrasting vegetation response during the two cold events. We conclude that under future global warming scenarios, extreme climatic events may cause a deterioration of the ecological environment of the Hulun Lake region, resulting in increased coniferous forest and decreased total forest cover in the surrounding mountains, and a reduction in typical steppe in the lake catchment.

The Spanish tourist sector facing extreme climate events: a case study of domestic tourism in the heat wave of 2003

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gómez-Martín, M. Belén; Armesto-López, Xosé A.; Martínez-Ibarra, Emilio

2014-07-01

This research explores, by means of a questionnaire-based survey, public knowledge and perception as well as the behaviour of young Spanish tourists before, during and after the summer holiday period affected by an episode of extreme heat in 2003. The survey was administered between November and December 2004. The extraordinary heat wave of the summer of 2003 can be seen as an example of a normal episode in terms of the predicted intensity and duration of European summers towards the end of the twenty-first century. It can therefore be used as the laboratory setting for this study. In this context, the use of the climate analogue approach allows us to obtain novel perspectives regarding the future impact that this type of event could have on tourist demand, based on a real experience. Likewise, such an approach allows the strategies of adaptation implemented by the different elements in the tourist system in order to cope with the atmospheric episode to be evaluated. Such strategies could prove useful in reducing vulnerability when faced with similar episodes in the future. The main results indicate that Spanish tourists (young segment market) are flexible in adapting to episodes of extremely high temperatures. Their personal perception of the phenomenon, their behaviour and the adaptation measures implemented to a greater or lesser extent before that time, reduce the vulnerability of the sector when faced with this type of event, at least from the point of view of this young segment of the internal national market. In Spain, the episode of extreme heat of 2003 has led to the implementation or improvement of some adaptive measures after the event, especially in the fields of management, policy and education.

The Spanish tourist sector facing extreme climate events: a case study of domestic tourism in the heat wave of 2003.

PubMed

Gómez-Martín, M Belén; Armesto-López, Xosé A; Martínez-Ibarra, Emilio

2014-07-01

This research explores, by means of a questionnaire-based survey, public knowledge and perception as well as the behaviour of young Spanish tourists before, during and after the summer holiday period affected by an episode of extreme heat in 2003. The survey was administered between November and December 2004. The extraordinary heat wave of the summer of 2003 can be seen as an example of a normal episode in terms of the predicted intensity and duration of European summers towards the end of the twenty-first century. It can therefore be used as the laboratory setting for this study. In this context, the use of the climate analogue approach allows us to obtain novel perspectives regarding the future impact that this type of event could have on tourist demand, based on a real experience. Likewise, such an approach allows the strategies of adaptation implemented by the different elements in the tourist system in order to cope with the atmospheric episode to be evaluated. Such strategies could prove useful in reducing vulnerability when faced with similar episodes in the future. The main results indicate that Spanish tourists (young segment market) are flexible in adapting to episodes of extremely high temperatures. Their personal perception of the phenomenon, their behaviour and the adaptation measures implemented to a greater or lesser extent before that time, reduce the vulnerability of the sector when faced with this type of event, at least from the point of view of this young segment of the internal national market. In Spain, the episode of extreme heat of 2003 has led to the implementation or improvement of some adaptive measures after the event, especially in the fields of management, policy and education.

Increasing summer rainfall in arid eastern-Central Asia over the past 8500 years

PubMed Central

Hong, Bing; Gasse, Françoise; Uchida, Masao; Hong, Yetang; Leng, Xuetian; Shibata, Yasuyuki; An, Ning; Zhu, Yongxuan; Wang, Yu

2014-01-01

A detailed and well-dated proxy record of summer rainfall variation in arid Central Asia is lacking. Here, we report a long-term, high resolution record of summer rainfall extracted from a peat bog in arid eastern-Central Asia (AECA). The record indicates a slowly but steadily increasing trend of summer rainfall in the AECA over the past 8500 years. On this long-term trend are superimposed several abrupt increases in rainfall on millennial timescales that correspond to rapid cooling events in the North Atlantic. During the last millennium, the hydrological climate pattern of the AECA underwent a major change. The rainfall in the past century has reached its highest level over the 8500-year history, highlighting the significant impact of the human-induced greenhouse effect on the hydrological climate in the AECA. Our results demonstrate that even in very dry eastern-Central Asia, the climate can become wetter under global warming. PMID:24923304

[Needles stable carbon isotope composition and traits of Pinus sylvestris var. mongolica in sparse wood grassland in south edge of Keerqin Sandy Land under the conditions of different precipitation].

PubMed

Song, Li-Ning; Zhu, Jiao-Jun; Li, Ming-Cai; Yan, Tao; Zhang, Jin-Xin

2012-06-01

A comparative study was conducted on the needles stable carbon isotope composition (delta13 C), specific leaf area (SLA), and dry matter content (DMC) of 19-year-old Pinus sylvestris var. mongolica trees in a sparse wood grassland in the south edge of Keerqin Sandy Land under the conditions of extreme drought and extreme wetness, aimed to understand the water use of Pinus sylvestris under the conditions of extreme precipitation. The soil water content and groundwater level were also measured. In the dry year (2009), the soil water content in the grassland was significantly lower than that in the wet year (2010), but the delta13C values of the current year-old needles had no significant difference between the two years and between the same months of the two years. The SLA of the current year-old needles was significantly lower in the dry year than in the wet year, but the DMC had no significant difference between the two years. Under the conditions of the two extreme precipitations, the water use efficiency of the trees did not vary remarkably, and the trees could change their needles SLA to adapt the variations of precipitation. For the test ecosystem with a groundwater level more than 3.0 m, extreme drought could have no serious impact on the growth and survival of the trees.

Spring Soil Temperature Anomalies over Tibetan Plateau and Summer Droughts/Floods in East Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xue, Y.; Li, W.; LI, Q.; Diallo, I.; Chu, P. C.; Guo, W.; Fu, C.

2017-12-01

Recurrent extreme climate events, such as droughts and floods, are important features of the climate of East Asia, especially over the Yangtze River basin. Many studies have attributed these episodes to variability and anomaly of global sea surface temperatures (SST) anomaly. In addition, snow in the Tibetan Plateau has also been considered as one of the factors affecting the Asian monsoon variability. However, studies have consistently shown that SST along is unable to explain the extreme climate events fully and snow has difficulty to use as a predictor. Remote effects of observed large-scale land surface temperature (LST) and subsurface temperature variability in Tibetan Plateau (TP) on East Asian regional droughts/floods, however, have been largely ignored. We conjecture that a temporally filtered response to snow anomalies may be preserved in the LST anomaly. In this study, evidence from climate observations and model simulations addresses the LST/SUBT effects. The Maximum Covariance Analysis (MCA) of observational data identifies that a pronounce spring LST anomaly pattern over TP is closely associated with precipitation anomalies in East Asia with a dipole pattern, i.e., negative/positive TP spring LST anomaly is associated with the summer drought/flood over the region south of the Yangtze River and wet/dry conditions to the north of the Yangtze River. Climate models were used to demonstrate a causal relationship between spring cold LST anomaly in the TP and the severe 2003 drought over the southern part of the Yangtze River in eastern Asia. This severe drought resulted in 100 x 106 kg crop yield losses and an economic loss of 5.8 billion Chinese Yuan. The modeling study suggests that the LST effect produced about 58% of observed precipitation deficit; while the SST effect produced about 32% of the drought conditions. Meanwhile, the LST and SST effects also simulated the observed flood over to the north of the Yangtze River. This suggests that inclusion of this LST effect is essential to make reliable East Asian drought/flood predictions.

Future climate change scenarios in Central America at high spatial resolution.

PubMed

Imbach, Pablo; Chou, Sin Chan; Lyra, André; Rodrigues, Daniela; Rodriguez, Daniel; Latinovic, Dragan; Siqueira, Gracielle; Silva, Adan; Garofolo, Lucas; Georgiou, Selena

2018-01-01

The objective of this work is to assess the downscaling projections of climate change over Central America at 8-km resolution using the Eta Regional Climate Model, driven by the HadGEM2-ES simulations of RCP4.5 emission scenario. The narrow characteristic of continent supports the use of numerical simulations at very high-horizontal resolution. Prior to assessing climate change, the 30-year baseline period 1961-1990 is evaluated against different sources of observations of precipitation and temperature. The mean seasonal precipitation and temperature distribution show reasonable agreement with observations. Spatial correlation of the Eta, 8-km resolution, simulations against observations show clear advantage over the driver coarse global model simulations. Seasonal cycle of precipitation confirms the added value of the Eta at 8-km over coarser resolution simulations. The Eta simulations show a systematic cold bias in the region. Climate features of the Mid-Summer Drought and the Caribbean Low-Level Jet are well simulated by the Eta model at 8-km resolution. The assessment of the future climate change is based on the 30-year period 2021-2050, under RCP4.5 scenario. Precipitation is generally reduced, in particular during the JJA and SON, the rainy season. Warming is expected over the region, but stronger in the northern portion of the continent. The Mid-Summer Drought may develop in regions that do not occur during the baseline period, and where it occurs the strength may increase in the future scenario. The Caribbean Low-Level Jet shows little change in the future. Extreme temperatures have positive trend within the period 2021-2050, whereas extreme precipitation, measured by R50mm and R90p, shows positive trend in the eastern coast, around Costa Rica, and negative trends in the northern part of the continent. Negative trend in the duration of dry spell, which is an estimate based on evapotranspiration, is projected in most part of the continent. Annual mean water excess has negative trends in most part of the continent, which suggests decreasing water availability in the future scenario.

Future climate change scenarios in Central America at high spatial resolution

PubMed Central

Imbach, Pablo; Chou, Sin Chan; Rodrigues, Daniela; Rodriguez, Daniel; Latinovic, Dragan; Siqueira, Gracielle; Silva, Adan; Garofolo, Lucas; Georgiou, Selena

2018-01-01

The objective of this work is to assess the downscaling projections of climate change over Central America at 8-km resolution using the Eta Regional Climate Model, driven by the HadGEM2-ES simulations of RCP4.5 emission scenario. The narrow characteristic of continent supports the use of numerical simulations at very high-horizontal resolution. Prior to assessing climate change, the 30-year baseline period 1961–1990 is evaluated against different sources of observations of precipitation and temperature. The mean seasonal precipitation and temperature distribution show reasonable agreement with observations. Spatial correlation of the Eta, 8-km resolution, simulations against observations show clear advantage over the driver coarse global model simulations. Seasonal cycle of precipitation confirms the added value of the Eta at 8-km over coarser resolution simulations. The Eta simulations show a systematic cold bias in the region. Climate features of the Mid-Summer Drought and the Caribbean Low-Level Jet are well simulated by the Eta model at 8-km resolution. The assessment of the future climate change is based on the 30-year period 2021–2050, under RCP4.5 scenario. Precipitation is generally reduced, in particular during the JJA and SON, the rainy season. Warming is expected over the region, but stronger in the northern portion of the continent. The Mid-Summer Drought may develop in regions that do not occur during the baseline period, and where it occurs the strength may increase in the future scenario. The Caribbean Low-Level Jet shows little change in the future. Extreme temperatures have positive trend within the period 2021–2050, whereas extreme precipitation, measured by R50mm and R90p, shows positive trend in the eastern coast, around Costa Rica, and negative trends in the northern part of the continent. Negative trend in the duration of dry spell, which is an estimate based on evapotranspiration, is projected in most part of the continent. Annual mean water excess has negative trends in most part of the continent, which suggests decreasing water availability in the future scenario. PMID:29694355

Spatial structure of monthly rainfall measurements average over 25 years and trends of the hourly variability of a current rainy day in Rwanda.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nduwayezu, Emmanuel; Kanevski, Mikhail; Jaboyedoff, Michel

2013-04-01

Climate plays a vital role in a wide range of socio-economic activities of most nations particularly of developing countries. Climate (rainfall) plays a central role in agriculture which is the main stay of the Rwandan economy and community livelihood and activities. The majority of the Rwandan population (81,1% in 2010) relies on rain fed agriculture for their livelihoods, and the impacts of variability in climate patterns are already being felt. Climate-related events like heavy rainfall or too little rainfall are becoming more frequent and are impacting on human wellbeing.The torrential rainfall that occurs every year in Rwanda could disturb the circulation for many days, damages houses, infrastructures and causes heavy economic losses and deaths. Four rainfall seasons have been identified, corresponding to the four thermal Earth ones in the south hemisphere: the normal season (summer), the rainy season (autumn), the dry season (winter) and the normo-rainy season (spring). Globally, the spatial rainfall decreasing from West to East, especially in October (spring) and February (summer) suggests an «Atlantic monsoon influence» while the homogeneous spatial rainfall distribution suggests an «Inter-tropical front» mechanism. What is the hourly variability in this mountainous area? Is there any correlation with the identified zones of the monthly average series (from 1965 to 1990 established by the Rwandan meteorological services)? Where could we have hazards with several consecutive rainy days (using forecasted datas from the Norwegian Meteorological Institute)? Spatio-temporal analysis allows for identifying and explaining large-scale anomalies which are useful for understanding hydrological characteristics and subsequently predicting these hydrological events. The objective of our current research (Rainfall variability) is to proceed to an evaluation of the potential rainfall risk by applying advanced geospatial modelling tools in Rwanda: geostatistical predictions and simulations, machine learning algorithm (different types of neural networks) and GIS. Hybrid models - mixing geostatistics and machine learning, will be applied to study spatial non-stationarity of rainfall fields. The research will include rainfalls variability mapping and probabilistic analyses of extreme events. Key words: rainfall variability, Rwanda, extreme event, model, mapping, geostatistics.

Mystery #17 Answer

Atmospheric Science Data Center

2013-04-22

... and the region was dry until after mid-summer. 3.   Agriculture in this region is devoted primarily to vegetable and fruit ... native vegetation of the Pampas has been replaced by modern agriculture and cattle ranching, there were no forests in the Pampas 500 years ...

Extreme temperature trends in major cropping systems and their relation to agricultural land use change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mueller, N. D.; Butler, E. E.; McKinnon, K. A.; Rhines, A. N.; Tingley, M.; Siebert, S.; Holbrook, N. M.; Huybers, P. J.

2015-12-01

High temperature extremes during the growing season can reduce agricultural production. At the same time, agricultural practices can modify temperatures by altering the surface energy budget. Here we investigate growing season climate trends in major cropping systems and their relationship with agricultural land use change. In the US Midwest, 100-year trends exhibit a transition towards more favorable conditions, with cooler summer temperature extremes and increased precipitation. Statistically significant correspondence is found between the cooling pattern and trends in cropland intensification, as well as with trends towards greater irrigated land over a small subset of the domain. Land conversion to cropland, often considered an important influence on historical temperatures, is not significantly associated with cooling. We suggest that cooling is primarily associated with agricultural intensification increasing the potential for evapotranspiration, consistent with our finding that cooling trends are greatest for the highest temperature percentiles, and that increased evapotranspiration generally leads to greater precipitation. Temperatures over rainfed croplands show no cooling trend during drought conditions, consistent with evapotranspiration requiring adequate soil moisture, and implying that modern drought events feature greater warming as baseline cooler temperatures revert to historically high extremes. Preliminary results indicate these relationships between temperature extremes, irrigation, and intensification are also observed in other major summer cropping systems, including northeast China, Argentina, and the Canadian Prairies.

Effect of ambient humidity on the rate at which blood spots dry and the size of the spot produced.

PubMed

Denniff, Philip; Woodford, Lynsey; Spooner, Neil

2013-08-01

For shipping and storage, dried blood spot (DBS) samples must be sufficiently dry to protect the integrity of the sample. When the blood is spotted the humidity has the potential to affect the size of the spot created and the speed at which it dries. The area of DBS produced on three types of substrates were not affected by the humidity under which they were generated. DBS samples reached a steady moisture content 150 min after spotting and 90 min for humidities less than 60% relative humidity. All packaging materials examined provided some degree of protection from external extreme conditions. However, none of the packaging examined provided a total moisture barrier to extreme environmental conditions. Humidity was shown not to affect the spot area and DBS samples were ready for shipping and storage 2 h after spotting. The packing solutions examined all provided good protection from external high humidity conditions.

Role of Acclimatization in Weather-Related Human Mortality During the Transition Seasons of Autumn and Spring in a Thermally Extreme Mid-Latitude Continental Climate

PubMed Central

de Freitas, Christopher R.; Grigorieva, Elena A.

2015-01-01

Human mortality is closely related to natural climate-determined levels of thermal environmental stress and the resulting thermophysiological strain. Most climate-mortality research has focused on seasonal extremes during winter and summer when mortality is the highest, while relatively little attention has been paid to mortality during the transitional seasons of autumn and spring. The body acclimatizes to heat in the summer and cold in winter and readjusts through acclimatization during the transitions between the two during which time the body experiences the thermophysiological strain of readjustment. To better understand the influences of weather on mortality through the acclimatization process, the aim here is to examine the periods that link very cold and very warms seasons. The study uses the Acclimatization Thermal Strain Index (ATSI), which is a comparative measure of short-term thermophysiological impact on the body. ATSI centers on heat exchange with the body’s core via the respiratory system, which cannot be protected. The analysis is based on data for a major city in the climatic region of the Russian Far East characterized by very hot summers and extremely cold winters. The results show that although mortality peaks in winter (January) and is at its lowest in summer (August), there is not a smooth rise through autumn nor a smooth decline through spring. A secondary peak occurs in autumn (October) with a smaller jump in May. This suggests the acclimatization from warm-to-cold produces more thermophysiological strain than the transition from cold-to-warm. The study shows that ATSI is a useful metric for quantifying the extent to which biophysical adaptation plays a role in increased strain on the body during re-acclimatization and for this reason is a more appropriate climatic indictor than air temperature alone. The work gives useful bioclimatic information on risks involved in transitional seasons in regions characterized by climatic extremes. This could be handy in planning and managing health services to the public and measures that might be used to help mitigate impacts. PMID:26703633

Role of Acclimatization in Weather-Related Human Mortality During the Transition Seasons of Autumn and Spring in a Thermally Extreme Mid-Latitude Continental Climate.

PubMed

de Freitas, Christopher R; Grigorieva, Elena A

2015-11-26

Human mortality is closely related to natural climate-determined levels of thermal environmental stress and the resulting thermophysiological strain. Most climate-mortality research has focused on seasonal extremes during winter and summer when mortality is the highest, while relatively little attention has been paid to mortality during the transitional seasons of autumn and spring. The body acclimatizes to heat in the summer and cold in winter and readjusts through acclimatization during the transitions between the two during which time the body experiences the thermophysiological strain of readjustment. To better understand the influences of weather on mortality through the acclimatization process, the aim here is to examine the periods that link very cold and very warms seasons. The study uses the Acclimatization Thermal Strain Index (ATSI), which is a comparative measure of short-term thermophysiological impact on the body. ATSI centers on heat exchange with the body’s core via the respiratory system, which cannot be protected. The analysis is based on data for a major city in the climatic region of the Russian Far East characterized by very hot summers and extremely cold winters. The results show that although mortality peaks in winter (January) and is at its lowest in summer (August), there is not a smooth rise through autumn nor a smooth decline through spring. A secondary peak occurs in autumn (October) with a smaller jump in May. This suggests the acclimatization from warm-to-cold produces more thermophysiological strain than the transition from cold-to-warm. The study shows that ATSI is a useful metric for quantifying the extent to which biophysical adaptation plays a role in increased strain on the body during re-acclimatization and for this reason is a more appropriate climatic indictor than air temperature alone. The work gives useful bioclimatic information on risks involved in transitional seasons in regions characterized by climatic extremes. This could be handy in planning and managing health services to the public and measures that might be used to help mitigate impacts.

Climate Impacts on Extreme Energy Consumption of Different Types of Buildings

PubMed Central

Li, Mingcai; Shi, Jun; Guo, Jun; Cao, Jingfu; Niu, Jide; Xiong, Mingming

2015-01-01

Exploring changes of building energy consumption and its relationships with climate can provide basis for energy-saving and carbon emission reduction. Heating and cooling energy consumption of different types of buildings during 1981-2010 in Tianjin city, was simulated by using TRNSYS software. Daily or hourly extreme energy consumption was determined by percentile methods, and the climate impact on extreme energy consumption was analyzed. The results showed that days of extreme heating consumption showed apparent decrease during the recent 30 years for residential and large venue buildings, whereas days of extreme cooling consumption increased in large venue building. No significant variations were found for the days of extreme energy consumption for commercial building, although a decreasing trend in extreme heating energy consumption. Daily extreme energy consumption for large venue building had no relationship with climate parameters, whereas extreme energy consumption for commercial and residential buildings was related to various climate parameters. Further multiple regression analysis suggested heating energy consumption for commercial building was affected by maximum temperature, dry bulb temperature, solar radiation and minimum temperature, which together can explain 71.5 % of the variation of the daily extreme heating energy consumption. The daily extreme cooling energy consumption for commercial building was only related to the wet bulb temperature (R2= 0.382). The daily extreme heating energy consumption for residential building was affected by 4 climate parameters, but the dry bulb temperature had the main impact. The impacts of climate on hourly extreme heating energy consumption has a 1-3 hour delay in all three types of buildings, but no delay was found in the impacts of climate on hourly extreme cooling energy consumption for the selected buildings. PMID:25923205

Climate impacts on extreme energy consumption of different types of buildings.

PubMed

Li, Mingcai; Shi, Jun; Guo, Jun; Cao, Jingfu; Niu, Jide; Xiong, Mingming

2015-01-01

Exploring changes of building energy consumption and its relationships with climate can provide basis for energy-saving and carbon emission reduction. Heating and cooling energy consumption of different types of buildings during 1981-2010 in Tianjin city, was simulated by using TRNSYS software. Daily or hourly extreme energy consumption was determined by percentile methods, and the climate impact on extreme energy consumption was analyzed. The results showed that days of extreme heating consumption showed apparent decrease during the recent 30 years for residential and large venue buildings, whereas days of extreme cooling consumption increased in large venue building. No significant variations were found for the days of extreme energy consumption for commercial building, although a decreasing trend in extreme heating energy consumption. Daily extreme energy consumption for large venue building had no relationship with climate parameters, whereas extreme energy consumption for commercial and residential buildings was related to various climate parameters. Further multiple regression analysis suggested heating energy consumption for commercial building was affected by maximum temperature, dry bulb temperature, solar radiation and minimum temperature, which together can explain 71.5 % of the variation of the daily extreme heating energy consumption. The daily extreme cooling energy consumption for commercial building was only related to the wet bulb temperature (R2= 0.382). The daily extreme heating energy consumption for residential building was affected by 4 climate parameters, but the dry bulb temperature had the main impact. The impacts of climate on hourly extreme heating energy consumption has a 1-3 hour delay in all three types of buildings, but no delay was found in the impacts of climate on hourly extreme cooling energy consumption for the selected buildings.

Ice Thermal Storage Systems for LWR Supplemental Cooling and Peak Power Shifting

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Haihua Zhao; Hongbin Zhang; Phil Sharpe

2010-06-01

Availability of enough cooling water has been one of the major issues for the nuclear power plant site selection. Cooling water issues have frequently disrupted the normal operation at some nuclear power plants during heat waves and long draught. The issues become more severe due to the new round of nuclear power expansion and global warming. During hot summer days, cooling water leaving a power plant may become too hot to threaten aquatic life so that environmental regulations may force the plant to reduce power output or even temporarily to be shutdown. For new nuclear power plants to be builtmore » at areas without enough cooling water, dry cooling can be used to remove waste heat directly into the atmosphere. However, dry cooling will result in much lower thermal efficiency when the weather is hot. One potential solution for the above mentioned issues is to use ice thermal storage systems (ITS) that reduce cooling water requirements and boost the plant’s thermal efficiency in hot hours. ITS uses cheap off-peak electricity to make ice and uses those ice for supplemental cooling during peak demand time. ITS is suitable for supplemental cooling storage due to its very high energy storage density. ITS also provides a way to shift large amount of electricity from off peak time to peak time. Some gas turbine plants already use ITS to increase thermal efficiency during peak hours in summer. ITSs have also been widely used for building cooling to save energy cost. Among three cooling methods for LWR applications: once-through, wet cooling tower, and dry cooling tower, once-through cooling plants near a large water body like an ocean or a large lake and wet cooling plants can maintain the designed turbine backpressure (or condensation temperature) during 99% of the time; therefore, adding ITS to those plants will not generate large benefits. For once-through cooling plants near a limited water body like a river or a small lake, adding ITS can bring significant economic benefits and avoid forced derating and shutdown during extremely hot weather. For the new plants using dry cooling towers, adding the ice thermal storage systems can effectively reduce the efficiency loss and water consumption during hot weather so that new LWRs could be considered in regions without enough cooling water. \\ This paper presents the feasibility study of using ice thermal storage systems for LWR supplemental cooling and peak power shifting. LWR cooling issues and ITS application status will be reviewed. Two ITS application case studies will be presented and compared with alternative options: one for once-through cooling without enough cooling for short time, and the other with dry cooling. Because capital cost, especially the ice storage structure/building cost, is the major cost for ITS, two different cost estimation models are developed: one based on scaling method, and the other based on a preliminary design using Building Information Modeling (BIM), an emerging technology in Architecture/Engineering/Construction, which enables design options, performance analysis and cost estimating in the early design stage.« less

Response of vegetation NDVI to climatic extremes in the arid region of Central Asia: a case study in Xinjiang, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yao, Junqiang; Chen, Yaning; Zhao, Yong; Mao, Weiyi; Xu, Xinbing; Liu, Yang; Yang, Qing

2018-02-01

Observed data showed the climatic transition from warm-dry to warm-wet in Xinjiang during the past 30 years and will probably affect vegetation dynamics. Here, we analyze the interannual change of vegetation index based on the satellite-derived normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) with temperature and precipitation extreme over the Xinjiang, using the 8-km NDVI third-generation (NDVI3g) from the Global Inventory Modelling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS) from 1982 to 2010. Few previous studies analyzed the link between climate extremes and vegetation response. From the satellite-based results, annual NDVI significantly increased in the first two decades (1981-1998) and then decreased after 1998. We show that the NDVI decrease over the past decade may conjointly be triggered by the increases of temperature and precipitation extremes. The correlation analyses demonstrated that the trends of NDVI was close to the trend of extreme precipitation; that is, consecutive dry days (CDD) and torrential rainfall days (R24) positively correlated with NDVI during 1998-2010. For the temperature extreme, while the decreases of NDVI correlate positively with warmer mean minimum temperature ( Tnav), it correlates negatively with the number of warmest night days ( Rwn). The results suggest that the climatic extremes have possible negative effects on the ecosystem.

How changes of climate extremes affect summer and winter crop yields and water productivity in the southeast USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tian, D.; Cammarano, D.

2017-12-01

Modeling changes of crop production at regional scale is important to make adaptation measures for sustainably food supply under global change. In this study, we explore how changing climate extremes in the 20th and 21st century affect maize (summer crop) and wheat (winter crop) yields in an agriculturally important region: the southeast United States. We analyze historical (1950-1999) and projected (2006-2055) precipitation and temperature extremes by calculating the changes of 18 climate extreme indices using the statistically downscaled CMIP5 data from 10 general circulation models (GCMs). To evaluate how these climate extremes affect maize and wheat yields, historical baseline and projected maize and wheat yields under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios are simulated using the DSSAT-CERES maize and wheat models driven by the same downscaled GCMs data. All of the changes are examined at 110 locations over the study region. The results show that most of the precipitation extreme indices do not have notable change; mean precipitation, precipitation intensity, and maximum 1-day precipitation are generally increased; the number of rainy days is decreased. The temperature extreme indices mostly showed increased values on mean temperature, number of high temperature days, diurnal temperature range, consecutive high temperature days, maximum daily maximum temperature, and minimum daily minimum temperature; the number of low temperature days and number of consecutive low temperature days are decreased. The conditional probabilistic relationships between changes in crop yields and changes in extreme indices suggested different responses of crop yields to climate extremes during sowing to anthesis and anthesis to maturity periods. Wheat yields and crop water productivity for wheat are increased due to an increased CO2 concentration and minimum temperature; evapotranspiration, maize yields, and crop water productivity for wheat are decreased owing to the increased temperature extremes. We found the effects of precipitation changes on both yields are relatively uncertain.

Spatial and ecological variation in dryland ecohydrological responses to climate change: implications for management

USGS Publications Warehouse

Palmquist, Kyle A.; Schlaepfer, Daniel R.; Bradford, John B.; Lauenroth, William K.

2016-01-01

Ecohydrological responses to climate change will exhibit spatial variability and understanding the spatial pattern of ecological impacts is critical from a land management perspective. To quantify climate change impacts on spatial patterns of ecohydrology across shrub steppe ecosystems in North America, we asked the following question: How will climate change impacts on ecohydrology differ in magnitude and variability across climatic gradients, among three big sagebrush ecosystems (SB-Shrubland, SB-Steppe, SB-Montane), and among Sage-grouse Management Zones? We explored these potential changes for mid-century for RCP8.5 using a process-based water balance model (SOILWAT) for 898 big sagebrush sites using site- and scenario-specific inputs. We summarize changes in available soil water (ASW) and dry days, as these ecohydrological variables may be helpful in guiding land management decisions about where to geographically concentrate climate change mitigation and adaptation resources. Our results suggest that during spring, soils will be wetter in the future across the western United States, while soils will be drier in the summer. The magnitude of those predictions differed depending on geographic position and the ecosystem in question: Larger increases in mean daily spring ASW were expected for high-elevation SB-Montane sites and the eastern and central portions of our study area. The largest decreases in mean daily summer ASW were projected for warm, dry, mid-elevation SB-Montane sites in the central and west-central portions of our study area (decreases of up to 50%). Consistent with declining summer ASW, the number of dry days was projected to increase rangewide, but particularly for SB-Montane and SB-Steppe sites in the eastern and northern regions. Collectively, these results suggest that most sites will be drier in the future during the summer, but changes were especially large for mid- to high-elevation sites in the northern half of our study area. Drier summer conditions in high-elevation, SB-Montane sites may result in increased habitat suitability for big sagebrush, while those same changes will likely reduce habitat suitability for drier ecosystems. Our work has important implications for where land managers should prioritize resources for the conservation of North American shrub steppe plant communities and the species that depend on them.

Extreme precipitation patterns reduced terrestrial ecosystem production across biomass

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Precipitation regimes are predicted to shift to more extreme patterns that are characterized by more intense rainfall events and longer dry intervals, yet their ecological impacts on vegetation production remain uncertain across biomes in natural climatic conditions. This in situ study investigated ...

Influence of weather extremes on the water levels of glaciated prairie wetlands

USGS Publications Warehouse

Johnson, W.C.; Boettcher, S.E.; Poiani, K.A.; Guntenspergen, G.

2004-01-01

Orchid Meadows is a long-term wetland research and monitoring site on the Coteau des Prairie in extreme east-central South Dakota, USA. It is a 65-ha Waterfowl Production Area with numerous temporary, seasonal, and semi-permanent wetlands. Ground water and surface water have been monitored at the site from 1987 to 1989 and from 1993 to the present. Vegetation has been monitored since 1993. The monitoring record includes two nearly back-to-back weather extremes: a drought in the late 1980s and a deluge in the early- to mid-1990s. Wetlands differed sharply in water levels between 3-yr dry and wet periods. For example, the time of inundation ranged among semi-permanent wetlands from 13 to 71 percent during the dry years to 100 percent during the wet years, while for seasonal wetlands, it was 0-29 percent and 46-100 percent, respectively, during dry and wet periods. Temporary wetlands had no surface water during the dry period but had standing water 0-67 percent of the time during the deluge years. The highest ground-water levels during the dry period were lower than most levels during the wet period. The difference in the water-table elevations of temporary wetlands between the periods was as much as 4 m. Ground-water levels near semi-permanent wetlands were considerably more stable (annual range of 0.3-1.6 m) than those near temporary wetlands (1.3-2.5 m). The results support the concept that weather extremes drive the wetland cover cycle and other key ecological processes in prairie wetlands. The new data from Orchid Meadows, together with other long-term data sets from North Dakota and Saskatchewan, Canada, are useful for many research purposes, including the parameterization and testing of models that simulate the effects of climate variability and climate change on prairie wetland ecosystems.

Occurrence of energetic extreme oceanic events in the Colombian Caribbean coasts and some approaches to assess their impact on ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bernal, G.; Osorio, A. F.; Urrego, L.; Peláez, D.; Molina, E.; Zea, S.; Montoya, R. D.; Villegas, N.

2016-12-01

Above-normal meteorological and oceanographic conditions that generate damage on coastal ecosystems and associated human communities are called extreme oceanic events. Accurate data are needed to predict their occurrence and to understand their effects. We analyzed available data from four localities in the Colombian Caribbean to study the effect of wave-related extreme events (hurricanes, surges) in three coastal ecosystems, i.e., mangroves, beaches, and reefs. Three localities were continental (Portete Bay mangroves at the Guajira Peninsula, Bocagrande Public Beach at Cartagena City, Tayrona Natural Park reefs near Santa Marta City), and one was oceanic (Old Providence Island reefs in the San Andres and Old Providence Archipelago, SW Caribbean). We gathered data on ocean surface winds (1978-2011) for the four locations, then modeled significant wave heights, then identified extreme events, and finally tried to identify effects on the ecosystems, directly or from published literature. Wave-related extreme surges were also compiled from Colombian press news (1970-2008). Modeled wave maximums (> 5 m significant wave height) and press-reported events coincided with hurricanes, extreme dry season, mid-summer drought and northern hemisphere winter cold fronts, with neither a relationship to ENSO events, nor a temporal trend of increase, excepting Portete Bay, with a marked increase after 1995. Changes in Portete Bay mangroves were analyzed from aerial photographs before and after Tropical Storm Cesar (1996). In the 38 years before Cesar there was mangrove inland colonization, with some loss associated to beach erosion, while during the 8 years following the storm there were localized retreats and important changes in vegetation composition related to the falling of large trees and subsequent recolonization by species that are faster colonizers, and changes in soil composition brought about by inundation. Cartagena's Bocagrande Beach was followed between 2009 and 2011 by video, and two events of strong retreat were observed in 2010, one associated to the arriving of cold fronts in March, and the other to the passing of Hurricane Tomas in November-December. Together, they produced > 90 m beach retreat. We identified modeled wave maximums during Hurricane Lenny (1999) at Santa Marta city, and hurricane Beta (2005) at Old Providence Island, both of which, according to the literature, had transient minor effects on local coral reefs, which had been more affected by diseases and bleaching.

Environmental alterations in biofuel generating molecules in Zilla spinosa.

PubMed

Khattab, Hemmat; El Marid, Zeinab

2017-03-01

Now days, production of fuels and petrochemicals from renewable lignocellulosic biomass is an indispensable issue to meet the growing energy demand. Meanwhile, the changes in the climate and soil topography influence the growth and development as well as canopy level of the lignocellulosic biomass. In this study, Zilla spinosa Turr (Zilla) plants with similar age and size were collected from three main sectors (upstream, midstream, and downstream) of Wadi Hagul during spring (April) and summer (July) seasons. Environmental stresses evoked reduction in the energy trapping pigments concomitant with increments in chlorophyll fluorescence in summer harvested plants particularly at downstream. Furthermore, the biofuels generating compounds including carbohydrate, lignin, and lipid making the plant biomasses are greatly affected by environmental conditions. Greater amount of lignin was estimated in summer harvested Z. spinosa shoots particularly at downstream. Moreover, the total oil content which is a promising source of biodiesel was considerably decreased during summer season particularly at downstream. The physical properties of the lipids major constituent fatty acid methyl esters determine the biofuel properties and contribute in the adaptation of plants against environmental stresses. Hence, the analysis of fatty acid profile showed significant modifications under combined drought and heat stress displayed in the summer season. The maximum increase in saturated fatty acid levels including tridecanoic acid (C13:0), pentadeanoic acid (C15:0), palmitic acid (C16:0), and stearic acid (C18:0) were estimated in spring harvested Z. spinosa aerial portions particularly at midstream. In spite of the reduction in the total oil content, a marked increase in the value of unsaturated to saturated fatty acids ratio and thereby the unsaturation index were achieved during the dry summer period. Henceforth, these seasonal and spatial variations in fatty acids profiles may contribute in the acclimatization of Z. spinosa plants to soil water scarcity associated with heat stress experienced during summer. In addition, the alterations in the fatty acid profiles may match biofuel requirements. In conclusion, the most adequate growing season (spring) will be decisive for achieving high lipid productivity associated with improved biofuel quality in terms of high saturated fatty acids percentage that improves its cetane number. However, the dry summer season enhanced the accumulation of greater amount of lignin that may enhance the biodiesel quantity.

Characteristics of atmospheric circulation patterns associated with extreme temperatures over North America in observations and climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loikith, Paul C.

Motivated by a desire to understand the physical mechanisms involved in future anthropogenic changes in extreme temperature events, the key atmospheric circulation patterns associated with extreme daily temperatures over North America in the current climate are identified. Several novel metrics are used to systematically identify and describe these patterns for the entire continent. The orientation, physical characteristics, and spatial scale of these circulation patterns vary based on latitude, season, and proximity to important geographic features (i.e., mountains, coastlines). The anomaly patterns associated with extreme cold events tend to be similar to, but opposite in sign of, those associated with extreme warm events, especially within the westerlies, and tend to scale with temperature in the same locations. The influence of the Pacific North American (PNA) pattern, the Northern Annular Mode (NAM), and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on extreme temperature days and months shows that associations between extreme temperatures and the PNA and NAM are stronger than associations with ENSO. In general, the association with extremes tends to be stronger on monthly than daily time scales. Extreme temperatures are associated with the PNA and NAM in locations typically influenced by these circulation patterns; however many extremes still occur on days when the amplitude and polarity of these patterns do not favor their occurrence. In winter, synoptic-scale, transient weather disturbances are important drivers of extreme temperature days; however these smaller-scale events are often concurrent with amplified PNA or NAM patterns. Associations are weaker in summer when other physical mechanisms affecting the surface energy balance, such as anomalous soil moisture content, are associated with extreme temperatures. Analysis of historical runs from seventeen climate models from the CMIP5 database suggests that most models simulate realistic circulation patterns associated with extreme temperature days in most places. Model-simulated patterns tend to resemble observed patterns better in the winter than the summer and at 500 hPa than at the surface. There is substantial variability among the suite of models analyzed and most models simulate circulation patterns more realistically away from influential features such as large bodies of water and complex topography.

Examining diel patterns of soil and xylem moisture using electrical resistivity imaging

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mares, Rachel; Barnard, Holly R.; Mao, Deqiang; Revil, André; Singha, Kamini

2016-05-01

The feedbacks among forest transpiration, soil moisture, and subsurface flowpaths are poorly understood. We investigate how soil moisture is affected by daily transpiration using time-lapse electrical resistivity imaging (ERI) on a highly instrumented ponderosa pine and the surrounding soil throughout the growing season. By comparing sap flow measurements to the ERI data, we find that periods of high sap flow within the diel cycle are aligned with decreases in ground electrical conductivity and soil moisture due to drying of the soil during moisture uptake. As sap flow decreases during the night, the ground conductivity increases as the soil moisture is replenished. The mean and variance of the ground conductivity decreases into the summer dry season, indicating drier soil and smaller diel fluctuations in soil moisture as the summer progresses. Sap flow did not significantly decrease through the summer suggesting use of a water source deeper than 60 cm to maintain transpiration during times of shallow soil moisture depletion. ERI captured spatiotemporal variability of soil moisture on daily and seasonal timescales. ERI data on the tree showed a diel cycle of conductivity, interpreted as changes in water content due to transpiration, but changes in sap flow throughout the season could not be interpreted from ERI inversions alone due to daily temperature changes.

Extreme decay of meteoric beryllium-10 as a proxy for persistent aridity.

PubMed

Valletta, Rachel D; Willenbring, Jane K; Lewis, Adam R; Ashworth, Allan C; Caffee, Marc

2015-12-09

The modern Antarctic Dry Valleys are locked in a hyper-arid, polar climate that enables the East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS) to remain stable, frozen to underlying bedrock. The duration of these dry, cold conditions is a critical prerequisite when modeling the long-term mass balance of the EAIS during past warm climates and is best examined using terrestrial paleoclimatic proxies. Unfortunately, deposits containing such proxies are extremely rare and often difficult to date. Here, we apply a unique dating approach to tundra deposits using concentrations of meteoric beryllium-10 ((10)Be) adhered to paleolake sediments from the Friis Hills, central Dry Valleys. We show that lake sediments were emplaced between 14-17.5 My and have remained untouched by meteoric waters since that time. Our results support the notion that the onset of Dry Valleys aridification occurred ~14 My, precluding the possibility of EAIS collapse during Pliocene warming events. Lake fossils indicate that >14 My ago the Dry Valleys hosted a moist tundra that flourished in elevated atmospheric CO2 (>400 ppm). Thus, Dry Valleys tundra deposits record regional climatic transitions that affect EAIS mass balance, and, in a global paleoclimatic context, these deposits demonstrate how warming induced by 400 ppm CO2 manifests at high latitudes.

Extreme decay of meteoric beryllium-10 as a proxy for persistent aridity

PubMed Central

Valletta, Rachel D.; Willenbring, Jane K.; Lewis, Adam R.; Ashworth, Allan C.; Caffee, Marc

2015-01-01

The modern Antarctic Dry Valleys are locked in a hyper-arid, polar climate that enables the East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS) to remain stable, frozen to underlying bedrock. The duration of these dry, cold conditions is a critical prerequisite when modeling the long-term mass balance of the EAIS during past warm climates and is best examined using terrestrial paleoclimatic proxies. Unfortunately, deposits containing such proxies are extremely rare and often difficult to date. Here, we apply a unique dating approach to tundra deposits using concentrations of meteoric beryllium-10 (10Be) adhered to paleolake sediments from the Friis Hills, central Dry Valleys. We show that lake sediments were emplaced between 14–17.5 My and have remained untouched by meteoric waters since that time. Our results support the notion that the onset of Dry Valleys aridification occurred ~14 My, precluding the possibility of EAIS collapse during Pliocene warming events. Lake fossils indicate that >14 My ago the Dry Valleys hosted a moist tundra that flourished in elevated atmospheric CO2 (>400 ppm). Thus, Dry Valleys tundra deposits record regional climatic transitions that affect EAIS mass balance, and, in a global paleoclimatic context, these deposits demonstrate how warming induced by 400 ppm CO2 manifests at high latitudes. PMID:26647733

Soil moisture and soil temperature variability among three plant communities in a High Arctic Lake Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davis, M. L.; Konkel, J.; Welker, J. M.; Schaeffer, S. M.

2017-12-01

Soil moisture and soil temperature are critical to plant community distribution and soil carbon cycle processes in High Arctic tundra. As environmental drivers of soil biochemical processes, the predictability of soil moisture and soil temperature by vegetation zone in High Arctic landscapes has significant implications for the use of satellite imagery and vegetation distribution maps to estimate of soil gas flux rates. During the 2017 growing season, we monitored soil moisture and soil temperature weekly at 48 sites in dry tundra, moist tundra, and wet grassland vegetation zones in a High Arctic lake basin. Soil temperature in all three communities reflected fluctuations in air temperature throughout the season. Mean soil temperature was highest in the dry tundra community at 10.5±0.6ºC, however, did not differ between moist tundra and wet grassland communities (2.7±0.6 and 3.1±0.5ºC, respectively). Mean volumetric soil moisture differed significantly among all three plant communities with the lowest and highest soil moisture measured in the dry tundra and wet grassland (30±1.2 and 65±2.7%), respectively. For all three communities, soil moisture was highest during the early season snow melt. Soil moisture in wet grassland remained high with no significant change throughout the season, while significant drying occurred in dry tundra. The most significant change in soil moisture was measured in moist tundra, ranging from 61 to 35%. Our results show different gradients in soil moisture variability within each plant community where: 1) soil moisture was lowest in dry tundra with little change, 2) highest in wet grassland with negligible change, and 3) variable in moist tundra which slowly dried but remained moist. Consistently high soil moisture in wet grassland restricts this plant community to areas with no significant drying during summer. The moist tundra occupies the intermediary areas between wet grassland and dry tundra and experiences the widest range of soil moisture variability. As climate projections predict wetter summers in the High Arctic, expansion of areas with seasonally inundated soils and increased soil moisture variability could result in an expansion of wet grassland and moist tundra communities with a commensurate decrease in dry tundra area.

Holocene climate in the western Great Lakes national parks and lakeshores: Implications for future climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Davis, Margaret; Douglas, Christine; Cole, K.L.; Winkler, Marge; Flaknes, Robyn

2000-01-01

We reconstruct Holocene climate history (last 10,000 years) for each of the U.S. National Park Service units in the western Great Lakes region in order to evaluate their sensitivity to global warming. Annual precipitation, annual temperature, and July and January temperatures were reconstructed by comparing fossil pollen in lake sediment with pollen in surface samples, assuming that ancient climates were similar to modern climate near analogous surface samples. In the early Holocene, most of the parks experienced colder winters, warmer summers, and lower precipitation than today. An exception is Voyageurs National Park in northern Minnesota where, by 8000 years ago, January temperatures were higher than today. The combination of high mean annual temperature and lower precipitation at Voyageurs resulted in a dry period between 8000 and 5000 years ago, similar to the Prairie Period in regions to the south and west. A mid-Holocene warm-dry period also occurred at other northern and central parks but was much less strongly developed. In southern parks there was no clear evidence of a mid-Holocene warm-dry period. These differences suggest that global model predictions of a warm, dry climate in the northern Great Plains under doubled atmospheric CO2 may be more applicable to Voyageurs than to the other parks. The contrast in reconstructed temperatures at Voyageurs and Isle Royale indicates that the ameliorating effect of the Great Lakes on temperatures has been in effect throughout the Holocene and presumably will continue in the future, thus reducing the potential for species loss caused by future temperature extremes. Increased numbers of mesic trees at all of the parks in the late Holocene reflect increasing annual precipitation. This trend toward more mesic conditions began 6000 years ago in the south and 4000 years ago in the north and increased sharply in recent millennia at parks located today in lake-effect snow belts. This suggests that lake-effect snowfall is sensitive to continental-scale changes in climate and could be affected by future climate change. Plant and animal species sensitive to changes in the moisture regime could thus be endangered within the Great Lakes parks.

Diurnal and Seasonal Cloud Base Patterns Highlight Small-Mountain Tropical Cloud Forest Vulnerability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Van Beusekom, A.; Gonzalez, G.; Scholl, M. A.

2016-12-01

The degree to which cloud immersion sustains tropical montane cloud forests (TMCFs) during rainless periods and the amount these clouds are affected by urban areas is not well understood, as cloud base is rarely quantified near mountains. We found that a healthy small-mountain TMCF in Puerto Rico had lowest cloud base during the mid-summer dry season. In addition, we observed that cloud bases were lower than the mountaintops as often in the winter dry season as in the wet seasons, based on 2.5 years of direct and 16 years of indirect observations. The low clouds during dry season appear to be explained by proximity to the oceanic cloud system where lower clouds are seasonally invariant in altitude and cover; along with orographic lifting and trade-wind control over cloud formation. These results suggest that climate change impacts on small-mountain TMCFs may not be limited to the dry season; changes in regional-scale patterns that cause drought periods during the wet seasons will likely have higher cloud base, and thus may threaten cloud water support to sensitive mountain ecosystems. Strong El Niño's can cause drought in Puerto Rico; we will report results from the summer of 2015 that examined El Niño effects on cloud base altitudes. Looking at regionally collected airport cloud data, we see indicators that diurnal urban effects may already be raising the low cloud bases.

Seasonal and diurnal patterns of soil water potential in the rhizosphere of blue oaks: evidence for hydraulic lift.

PubMed

Ishikawa, C Millikin; Bledsoe, C S

2000-12-01

In a 3-year study, seasonal and daily soil water fluctuations in a California blue oak woodland were investigated by measuring soil water potential (Ψ s ) at hourly intervals. Soil water potential remained relatively high well into the annual summer drought, with values above -0.5 MPa until June even in a dry year. As drought progressed, Ψ s (at 25, 50, 75, and 100 cm depth) decreased to less than -3 MPa, providing evidence for continued blue oak root activity throughout the summer. We observed diurnal Ψ s fluctuations (gradual increase at night and rapid decrease during daytime) characteristic of hydraulic lift, a process by which plant roots redistribute water from wet to dry soil layers. These diurnal fluctuations were observed at all four soil depths and began to appear when Ψ s reached approximately -0.3 MPa. When Ψ s reached approximately -3 MPa, fluctuations became "offset" from those typical of hydraulic lift. These offset fluctuations (apparent at low water potentials when temperature fluctuations were large) closely followed diurnal fluctuations in soil temperature. We propose that these offset patterns resulted from a combination of hydraulic lift cessation and an over-correction for temperature in the model used to calculate Ψ s from raw sensor data. The appearance and disappearance of hydraulic lift fluctuations seemed to depend on Ψ s . While soil temperatures and dates at which hydraulic lift appeared (and disappeared) were significantly different between wet and dry years, Ψ s values associated with hydraulic lift appearance were not significantly different. Hydraulic lift occurred too late in summer to benefit annual forage grasses. However, water released by blue oak trees at night could slow the rate of soil water depletion and extend blue oaks' growing season.

7Be, 210Pb and 40K depositions over 11 years in Málaga.

PubMed

Dueñas, C; Gordo, E; Liger, E; Cabello, M; Cañete, S; Pérez, M; Torre-Luque, P de la

2017-11-01

The monthly bulk depositional fluxes of three natural radionuclides ( 7 Be, 210 Pb and 40 K) were measured at a Mediterranean coastal station (Málaga) over an 11-year period from 2005 to 2015. The mean annual depositional fluxes of 7 Be, 210 Pb and 40 K were 1215, 144 and 67 Bq m -2 year -1 respectively, showing a clear seasonal trend with minimum values recorded during summer and maximum values in winter. The rainfall regime with dry summers allows estimating the dry deposition. Assuming constant dry deposition through each year, 7 Be, 210 Pb and 40 K would account for 12.5, 26.5 and 33% of the bulk fallout respectively which indicates that deposition for 210 Pb and 40 K are significantly higher than 7 Be. The precipitation-normalized enrichment factor alpha used to explain seasonal variations in the depositional fluxes of radionuclides with respect the rainfall, indicates higher depositional fluxes during spring and summer than expected from the amount of rainfall. Despite their different origin, 210 Pb and 7 Be monthly depositional fluxes have strong correlation. The atmospheric deposition fluxes of 7 Be, 210 Pb and 40 K were controlled mainly by the amount of rainfall (r = 0.89, 0.91 and 0.66 respectively). Moreover, principal component analysis was applied to the datasets and deposition of radionuclides and rainfall in the same component highlighting the importance of the washout mechanism. The mean depositional velocity of aerosols evaluated using 7 Be and 210 Pb are similar and are compared to other published values. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Valley floor climate observations from the McMurdo dry valleys, Antarctica, 1986-2000

USGS Publications Warehouse

Doran, P.T.; McKay, C.P.; Clow, G.D.; Dana, G.L.; Fountain, A.G.; Nylen, T.; Lyons, W.B.

2002-01-01

Climate observations from the McMurdo dry valleys, East Antarctica are presented from a network of seven valley floor automatic meteorological stations during the period 1986 to 2000. Mean annual temperatures ranged from -14.8??C to -30.0??C, depending on the site and period of measurement. Mean annual relative humidity is generally highest near the coast. Mean annual wind speed increases with proximity to the polar plateau. Site-to-site variation in mean annual solar flux and PAR is due to exposure of each station and changes over time are likely related to changes in cloudiness. During the nonsummer months, strong katabatic winds are frequent at some sites and infrequent at others, creating large variation in mean annual temperature owing to the warming effect of the winds. Katabatic wind exposure appears to be controlled to a large degree by the presence of colder air in the region that collects at low points and keeps the warm less dense katabatic flow from the ground. The strong influence of katabatic winds makes prediction of relative mean annual temperature based on geographical position (elevation and distance from the coast) alone, not possible. During the summer months, onshore winds dominate and warm as they progress through the valleys creating a strong linear relationship (r2 = 0.992) of increasing potential temperature with distance from the coast (0.09??C km-1). In contrast to mean annual temperature, summer temperature lends itself quite well to model predictions, and is used to construct a statistical model for predicting summer dry valley temperatures at unmonitored sites. Copyright 2002 by the American Geophysical Union.

Future equivalent of 2010 Russian heatwave intensified by weakening soil moisture constraints

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rasmijn, L. M.; van der Schrier, G.; Bintanja, R.; Barkmeijer, J.; Sterl, A.; Hazeleger, W.

2018-05-01

The 2010 heatwave in eastern Europe and Russia ranks among the hottest events ever recorded in the region1,2. The excessive summer warmth was related to an anomalously widespread and intense quasi-stationary anticyclonic circulation anomaly over western Russia, reinforced by depletion of spring soil moisture1,3-5. At present, high soil moisture levels and strong surface evaporation generally tend to cap maximum summer temperatures6-8, but these constraints may weaken under future warming9,10. Here, we use a data assimilation technique in which future climate model simulations are nudged to realistically represent the persistence and strength of the 2010 blocked atmospheric flow. In the future, synoptically driven extreme warming under favourable large-scale atmospheric conditions will no longer be suppressed by abundant soil moisture, leading to a disproportional intensification of future heatwaves. This implies that future mid-latitude heatwaves analogous to the 2010 event will become even more extreme than previously thought, with temperature extremes increasing by 8.4 °C over western Russia. Thus, the socioeconomic impacts of future heatwaves will probably be amplified beyond current estimates.

Significantly Increased Extreme Precipitation Expected in Europe and North America from Extratropical Storms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hawcroft, M.; Hodges, K.; Walsh, E.; Zappa, G.

2017-12-01

For the Northern Hemisphere extratropics, changes in circulation are key to determining the impacts of climate warming. The mechanisms governing these circulation changes are complex, leading to the well documented uncertainty in projections of the future location of the mid-latitude storm tracks simulated by climate models. These storms are the primary source of precipitation for North America and Europe and generate many of the large-scale precipitation extremes associated with flooding and severe economic loss. Here, we show that in spite of the uncertainty in circulation changes, by analysing the behaviour of the storms themselves, we find entirely consistent and robust projections across an ensemble of climate models. In particular, we find that projections of change in the most intensely precipitating storms (above the present day 99th percentile) in the Northern Hemisphere are substantial and consistent across models, with large increases in the frequency of both summer (June-August, +226±68%) and winter (December-February, +186±34%) extreme storms by the end of the century. Regionally, both North America (summer +202±129%, winter +232±135%) and Europe (summer +390±148%, winter +318±114%) are projected to experience large increases in the frequency of intensely precipitating storms. These changes are thermodynamic and driven by surface warming, rather than by changes in the dynamical behaviour of the storms. Such changes in storm behaviour have the potential to have major impacts on society given intensely precipitating storms are responsible for many large-scale flooding events.

High Survival of Lasius niger during Summer Flooding in a European Grassland

PubMed Central

Hertzog, Lionel R.; Ebeling, Anne; Meyer, Sebastian T.; Eisenhauer, Nico; Fischer, Christine; Hildebrandt, Anke; Wagg, Cameron; Weisser, Wolfgang W.

2016-01-01

Climate change is projected to increase the frequency of extreme events, such as flooding and droughts, which are anticipated to have negative effects on the biodiversity of primary producers and consequently the associated consumer communities. Here we assessed the effects of an extreme early summer flooding event in 2013 on ant colonies along an experimental gradient of plant species richness in a temperate grassland. We tested the effects of flood duration, plant species richness, plant cover, soil temperature, and soil porosity on ant occurrence and abundance. We found that the ant community was dominated by Lasius niger, whose presence and abundance after the flood was not significantly affected by any of the tested variables, including plant species richness. We found the same level of occupation by L. niger at the field site after the flood (surveyed in 2013) as before the flood (surveyed in 2006). Thus, there were no negative effects of the flood on the presence of L. niger in the plots. We can exclude recolonisation as a possible explanation of ant presence in the field site due to the short time period between the end of the flood and survey as well as to the absence of a spatial pattern in the occupancy data. Thus, the omnipresence of this dominant ant species 1 month after the flood indicates that the colonies were able to survive a 3-week summer flood. The observed ant species proved to be flood resistant despite experiencing such extreme climatic events very rarely. PMID:27851761

High Survival of Lasius niger during Summer Flooding in a European Grassland.

PubMed

Hertzog, Lionel R; Ebeling, Anne; Meyer, Sebastian T; Eisenhauer, Nico; Fischer, Christine; Hildebrandt, Anke; Wagg, Cameron; Weisser, Wolfgang W

2016-01-01

Climate change is projected to increase the frequency of extreme events, such as flooding and droughts, which are anticipated to have negative effects on the biodiversity of primary producers and consequently the associated consumer communities. Here we assessed the effects of an extreme early summer flooding event in 2013 on ant colonies along an experimental gradient of plant species richness in a temperate grassland. We tested the effects of flood duration, plant species richness, plant cover, soil temperature, and soil porosity on ant occurrence and abundance. We found that the ant community was dominated by Lasius niger, whose presence and abundance after the flood was not significantly affected by any of the tested variables, including plant species richness. We found the same level of occupation by L. niger at the field site after the flood (surveyed in 2013) as before the flood (surveyed in 2006). Thus, there were no negative effects of the flood on the presence of L. niger in the plots. We can exclude recolonisation as a possible explanation of ant presence in the field site due to the short time period between the end of the flood and survey as well as to the absence of a spatial pattern in the occupancy data. Thus, the omnipresence of this dominant ant species 1 month after the flood indicates that the colonies were able to survive a 3-week summer flood. The observed ant species proved to be flood resistant despite experiencing such extreme climatic events very rarely.

Application of probabilistic event attribution in the summer heat extremes in the western US to emissions traced to major industrial carbon producers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mera, R. J.; Allen, M. R.; Mote, P.; Ekwurzel, B.; Frumhoff, P. C.; Rupp, D. E.

2015-12-01

Heat waves in the western US have become progressively more severe due to increasing relative humidity and nighttime temperatures, increasing the health risks of vulnerable portions of the population, including Latino farmworkers in California's Central Valley and other socioeconomically disadvantaged communities. Recent research has shown greenhouse gas emissions doubled the risk of the hottest summer days during the 2000's in the Central Valley, increasing public health risks and costs, and raising the question of which parties are responsible for paying these costs. It has been argued that these costs should not be taken up solely by the general public through taxation, but that additional parties can be considered, including multinational corporations who have extracted and marketed a large proportion of carbon-based fuels. Here, we apply probabilistic event attribution (PEA) to assess the contribution of emissions traced to the world's 90 largest major industrial carbon producers to the severity and frequency of these extreme heat events. Our research uses very large ensembles of regional climate model simulations to calculate fractional attribution of policy-relevant extreme heat variables. We compare a full forcings world with observed greenhouse gases, sea surface temperatures and sea ice extent to a counter-factual world devoid of carbon pollution from major industrial carbon producers. The results show a discernable fraction of record-setting summer temperatures in the western US during the 2000's can be attributed to emissions sourced from major carbon producers.

High resolution characterization of northwest Mediterranean coastal waters thermal regimes: To better understand responses of benthic communities to climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bensoussan, Nathaniel; Romano, Jean-Claude; Harmelin, Jean-Georges; Garrabou, Joaquim

2010-04-01

In the North West Mediterranean (NWM), mass mortality events (MME) of long-lived benthic species that have occurred over the last two decades have been related to regional warming trend. Gaining robust data sets on thermal regimes is critical to assess conditions to which species have adapted, detect extreme events and critically evaluate biological impacts. High resolution temperature ( T) time series obtained during 1999-2006 from 5 to 40 m depth at four contrasted sites of the NWM were analyzed: Area Marina Protegida de les Illes Medes (NE Spain), Riou (Marseilles, France), Parc National de Port-Cros (France), and Réserve Naturelle de Scandola (Corsica, France). The seasonal pattern showed winter T around 11-13 °C, and summer T mainly around 22-24 °C near surface to 18-20 °C at depth. Stratification dynamics showed recurrent downwellings (>40 m) at Medes, frequent observation (1/3rd of the summer) of deep and cold upwelled waters at Riou, while Scandola exhibited stable summer stratification and highest suprathermoclinal T. Port-Cros showed an intermediate regime that oscillated between Riou and Scandola depending on the occurrence of northern winds. Data distribution study permitted to identify and to characterize 3 large scale positive anomalies concomitant with the mass mortality outbreaks of summers 1999, 2003 and 2006. The analysis of biological surveys on gorgonian populations showed significant impacts during the 3 years with temperature anomalies. Besides the degree of impact showed inter-annual differences which could be related to different T conditions concomitant to mortality events, from slight increase in T extreme of only 1-2 °C over short duration, to lengthened more classical summer conditions. Our results therefore support the hypothesis that shallow NWM populations of long-lived benthic species are living near their upper thermal thresholds. Given actual trends and projections in NWM, the repetition of new MMEs in the next decades is extremely likely. In such context, the acquisition of dedicated high resolution T series proves to be crucial for increasing our detection, understanding and forecasting abilities.

Influence of land-atmosphere feedbacks on temperature and precipitation extremes in the GLACE-CMIP5 ensemble

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lorenz, Ruth; Argueso, Daniel; Donat, Markus G.; Pitman, Andrew J.; van den Hurk, Bart; Berg, Alexis; Lawrence, David M.; Cheruy, Frederique; Ducharne, Agnes; Hagemann, Stefan; Meier, Arndt; Milly, Paul C.D.; Seneviratne, Sonia I

2016-01-01

We examine how soil moisture variability and trends affect the simulation of temperature and precipitation extremes in six global climate models using the experimental protocol of the Global Land-Atmosphere Coupling Experiment of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (GLACE-CMIP5). This protocol enables separate examinations of the influences of soil moisture variability and trends on the intensity, frequency, and duration of climate extremes by the end of the 21st century under a business-as-usual (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5) emission scenario. Removing soil moisture variability significantly reduces temperature extremes over most continental surfaces, while wet precipitation extremes are enhanced in the tropics. Projected drying trends in soil moisture lead to increases in intensity, frequency, and duration of temperature extremes by the end of the 21st century. Wet precipitation extremes are decreased in the tropics with soil moisture trends in the simulations, while dry extremes are enhanced in some regions, in particular the Mediterranean and Australia. However, the ensemble results mask considerable differences in the soil moisture trends simulated by the six climate models. We find that the large differences between the models in soil moisture trends, which are related to an unknown combination of differences in atmospheric forcing (precipitation, net radiation), flux partitioning at the land surface, and how soil moisture is parameterized, imply considerable uncertainty in future changes in climate extremes.

Using Upper Extremity Skin Temperatures to Assess Thermal Comfort in Office Buildings in Changsha, China

PubMed Central

Wu, Zhibin; Li, Nianping; Cui, Haijiao; Peng, Jinqing; Chen, Haowen; Liu, Penglong

2017-01-01

Existing thermal comfort field studies are mainly focused on the relationship between the indoor physical environment and the thermal comfort. In numerous chamber experiments, physiological parameters were adopted to assess thermal comfort, but the experiments’ conclusions may not represent a realistic thermal environment due to the highly controlled thermal environment and few occupants. This paper focuses on determining the relationships between upper extremity skin temperatures (i.e., finger, wrist, hand and forearm) and the indoor thermal comfort. Also, the applicability of predicting thermal comfort by using upper extremity skin temperatures was explored. Field studies were performed in office buildings equipped with split air-conditioning (SAC) located in the hot summer and cold winter (HSCW) climate zone of China during the summer of 2016. Psychological responses of occupants were recorded and physical and physiological factors were measured simultaneously. Standard effective temperature (SET*) was used to incorporate the effect of humidity and air velocity on thermal comfort. The results indicate that upper extremity skin temperatures are good indicators for predicting thermal sensation, and could be used to assess the thermal comfort in terms of physiological mechanism. In addition, the neutral temperature was 24.7 °C and the upper limit for 80% acceptability was 28.2 °C in SET*. PMID:28934173

Normal and Extreme Wind Conditions for Power at Coastal Locations in China

PubMed Central

Gao, Meng; Ning, Jicai; Wu, Xiaoqing

2015-01-01

In this paper, the normal and extreme wind conditions for power at 12 coastal locations along China’s coastline were investigated. For this purpose, the daily meteorological data measured at the standard 10-m height above ground for periods of 40–62 years are statistically analyzed. The East Asian Monsoon that affects almost China’s entire coastal region is considered as the leading factor determining wind energy resources. For most stations, the mean wind speed is higher in winter and lower in summer. Meanwhile, the wind direction analysis indicates that the prevalent winds in summer are southerly, while those in winter are northerly. The air densities at different coastal locations differ significantly, resulting in the difference in wind power density. The Weibull and lognormal distributions are applied to fit the yearly wind speeds. The lognormal distribution performs better than the Weibull distribution at 8 coastal stations according to two judgement criteria, the Kolmogorov–Smirnov test and absolute error (AE). Regarding the annual maximum extreme wind speed, the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution performs better than the commonly-used Gumbel distribution. At these southeastern coastal locations, strong winds usually occur in typhoon season. These 4 coastal provinces, that is, Guangdong, Fujian, Hainan, and Zhejiang, which have abundant wind resources, are also prone to typhoon disasters. PMID:26313256

Normal and Extreme Wind Conditions for Power at Coastal Locations in China.

PubMed

Gao, Meng; Ning, Jicai; Wu, Xiaoqing

2015-01-01

In this paper, the normal and extreme wind conditions for power at 12 coastal locations along China's coastline were investigated. For this purpose, the daily meteorological data measured at the standard 10-m height above ground for periods of 40-62 years are statistically analyzed. The East Asian Monsoon that affects almost China's entire coastal region is considered as the leading factor determining wind energy resources. For most stations, the mean wind speed is higher in winter and lower in summer. Meanwhile, the wind direction analysis indicates that the prevalent winds in summer are southerly, while those in winter are northerly. The air densities at different coastal locations differ significantly, resulting in the difference in wind power density. The Weibull and lognormal distributions are applied to fit the yearly wind speeds. The lognormal distribution performs better than the Weibull distribution at 8 coastal stations according to two judgement criteria, the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test and absolute error (AE). Regarding the annual maximum extreme wind speed, the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution performs better than the commonly-used Gumbel distribution. At these southeastern coastal locations, strong winds usually occur in typhoon season. These 4 coastal provinces, that is, Guangdong, Fujian, Hainan, and Zhejiang, which have abundant wind resources, are also prone to typhoon disasters.

Using Upper Extremity Skin Temperatures to Assess Thermal Comfort in Office Buildings in Changsha, China.

PubMed

Wu, Zhibin; Li, Nianping; Cui, Haijiao; Peng, Jinqing; Chen, Haowen; Liu, Penglong

2017-09-21

Existing thermal comfort field studies are mainly focused on the relationship between the indoor physical environment and the thermal comfort. In numerous chamber experiments, physiological parameters were adopted to assess thermal comfort, but the experiments' conclusions may not represent a realistic thermal environment due to the highly controlled thermal environment and few occupants. This paper focuses on determining the relationships between upper extremity skin temperatures (i.e., finger, wrist, hand and forearm) and the indoor thermal comfort. Also, the applicability of predicting thermal comfort by using upper extremity skin temperatures was explored. Field studies were performed in office buildings equipped with split air-conditioning (SAC) located in the hot summer and cold winter (HSCW) climate zone of China during the summer of 2016. Psychological responses of occupants were recorded and physical and physiological factors were measured simultaneously. Standard effective temperature (SET*) was used to incorporate the effect of humidity and air velocity on thermal comfort. The results indicate that upper extremity skin temperatures are good indicators for predicting thermal sensation, and could be used to assess the thermal comfort in terms of physiological mechanism. In addition, the neutral temperature was 24.7 °C and the upper limit for 80% acceptability was 28.2 °C in SET*.

Potential for Loss of Breeding Habitat for Imperiled Mountain Yellow-legged Frog ( Rana muscosa) in High Sierra Nevada Mountain Water Bodies due to Reduced Snowpack: Interaction of Climate Change and an Introduced Predator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lacan, I.; Matthews, K. R.

2005-12-01

Year to year variation in snowpack (20-200% average) and summer rain create large fluctuations in the volume of water in ponds and small lakes of the higher elevation (> 3000 m) Sierra Nevada. These water bodies are critical habitat for the imperiled mountain yellow-legged frog, Rana muscosa, which has decreased in abundance by 90% during the past century, due in part to the loss of suitable habitat and introduction of a fish predator (trout, Oncorhynchus spp.). Climate change is predicted to reduce the amount of snowpack, potentially impacting amphibian habitats throughout the Sierra Nevada by further reducing the lake and pond water levels and resulting in drying of small lakes during the summer. Mountain yellow-legged frogs are closely tied to water during all life stages, and are unique in having a three- to four-year tadpole phase. Thus, tadpole survival and future recruitment of adult frogs requires adequate water in lakes and ponds throughout the year, but larger lakes are populated with fish that prey on frogs and tadpoles. Thus, most successful frog breeding occurs in warm, shallow, fishless ponds that undergo wide fluctuations in volume. These water bodies would be most susceptible to the potential climate change effects of reduced snowpack, possibly resulting in lower tadpole survival. This study explores the link between the changes in water availability -- including complete pond drying -- and the abundance and recruitment of mountain yellow-legged frog in Dusy Basin, Kings Canyon National Park, California, USA. We propose using the low-snowpack years (1999, 2002, 2004) as comparative case studies to predict future effects of climate change on aquatic habitat availability and amphibian abundance and survival. To quantify the year to year variation and changes in water volume available to amphibians, we initiated GPS lake mapping in 2002 to quantify water volumes, water surface area, and shoreline length. We tracked these changes by repeated mapping of water surface and volume (bathymetry) during the summer, and concurrently counting all the life stages (adults, subadults, tadpoles) of frogs. As a baseline in this analysis, we present 2002 data when pond volume declined 40-100% during summer in three breeding lakes. The lakes that completely dried up in 2002 were repopulated by adults in 2003 but showed no recruitment of metamorphosed frogs from previous year's tadpoles. The lakes that retained water -- even if they underwent a large reduction in water volume (-60%), surface area (-70%) and shoreline length (-70%) during the summer -- show consistent tadpole-to-subadult recruitment in the following year (2003). Similar results are obtained using frog counts from 1999-2000 and 2004-2005 and estimates of water volume in those years. Our results suggest that more frequent summer drying of small ponds -- as may be induced by climate change -- will severely reduce frog recruitment. When combined with the invasive fish that prevent frog breeding in larger lakes, such effect of climate change may cause loss of local frog populations, and push the entire species towards extinction.

Classification tree and minimum-volume ellipsoid analyses of the distribution of ponderosa pine in the western USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Norris, Jodi R.; Jackson, Stephen T.; Betancourt, Julio L.

2006-01-01

Aim? Ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa Douglas ex Lawson & C. Lawson) is an economically and ecologically important conifer that has a wide geographic range in the western USA, but is mostly absent from the geographic centre of its distribution - the Great Basin and adjoining mountain ranges. Much of its modern range was achieved by migration of geographically distinct Sierra Nevada (P. ponderosa var. ponderosa) and Rocky Mountain (P. ponderosa var. scopulorum) varieties in the last 10,000 years. Previous research has confirmed genetic differences between the two varieties, and measurable genetic exchange occurs where their ranges now overlap in western Montana. A variety of approaches in bioclimatic modelling is required to explore the ecological differences between these varieties and their implications for historical biogeography and impending changes in western landscapes. Location? Western USA. Methods? We used a classification tree analysis and a minimum-volume ellipsoid as models to explain the broad patterns of distribution of ponderosa pine in modern environments using climatic and edaphic variables. Most biogeographical modelling assumes that the target group represents a single, ecologically uniform taxonomic population. Classification tree analysis does not require this assumption because it allows the creation of pathways that predict multiple positive and negative outcomes. Thus, classification tree analysis can be used to test the ecological uniformity of the species. In addition, a multidimensional ellipsoid was constructed to describe the niche of each variety of ponderosa pine, and distances from the niche were calculated and mapped on a 4-km grid for each ecological variable. Results? The resulting classification tree identified three dominant pathways predicting ponderosa pine presence. Two of these three pathways correspond roughly to the distribution of var. ponderosa, and the third pathway generally corresponds to the distribution of var. scopulorum. The classification tree and minimum-volume ellipsoid model show that both varieties have very similar temperature limitations, although var. ponderosa is more limited by the temperature extremes of the continental interior. The precipitation limitations of the two varieties are seasonally different, with var. ponderosa requiring significant winter moisture and var. scopulorum requiring significant summer moisture. Great Basin mountain ranges are too cold at higher elevations to support either variety of ponderosa pine, and at lower elevations are too dry in summer for var. scopulorum and too dry in winter for var. ponderosa. Main conclusions? The classification tree analysis indicates that var. ponderosa is ecologically as well as genetically distinct from var. scopulorum. Ecological differences may maintain genetic separation in spite of a limited zone of introgression between the two varieties in western Montana. Two hypotheses about past and future movements of ponderosa pine emerge from our analyses. The first hypothesis is that, during the last glacial period, colder and/or drier summers truncated most of the range of var. scopulorum in the central Rockies, but had less dramatic effects on the more maritime and winter-wet distribution of var. ponderosa. The second hypothesis is that, all other factors held constant, increasing summer temperatures in the future should produce changes in the distribution of var. scopulorum that are likely to involve range expansions in the central Rockies with the warming of mountain ranges currently too cold but sufficiently wet in summer for var. scopulorum. Finally, our results underscore the growing need to focus on genotypes in biogeographical modelling and ecological forecasting.

Evaluation of large-scale meteorological patterns associated with temperature extremes in the NARCCAP regional climate model simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loikith, Paul C.; Waliser, Duane E.; Lee, Huikyo; Neelin, J. David; Lintner, Benjamin R.; McGinnis, Seth; Mearns, Linda O.; Kim, Jinwon

2015-12-01

Large-scale meteorological patterns (LSMPs) associated with temperature extremes are evaluated in a suite of regional climate model (RCM) simulations contributing to the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program. LSMPs are characterized through composites of surface air temperature, sea level pressure, and 500 hPa geopotential height anomalies concurrent with extreme temperature days. Six of the seventeen RCM simulations are driven by boundary conditions from reanalysis while the other eleven are driven by one of four global climate models (GCMs). Four illustrative case studies are analyzed in detail. Model fidelity in LSMP spatial representation is high for cold winter extremes near Chicago. Winter warm extremes are captured by most RCMs in northern California, with some notable exceptions. Model fidelity is lower for cool summer days near Houston and extreme summer heat events in the Ohio Valley. Physical interpretation of these patterns and identification of well-simulated cases, such as for Chicago, boosts confidence in the ability of these models to simulate days in the tails of the temperature distribution. Results appear consistent with the expectation that the ability of an RCM to reproduce a realistically shaped frequency distribution for temperature, especially at the tails, is related to its fidelity in simulating LMSPs. Each ensemble member is ranked for its ability to reproduce LSMPs associated with observed warm and cold extremes, identifying systematically high performing RCMs and the GCMs that provide superior boundary forcing. The methodology developed here provides a framework for identifying regions where further process-based evaluation would improve the understanding of simulation error and help guide future model improvement and downscaling efforts.

On the distributions of annual and seasonal daily rainfall extremes in central Arizona and their spatial variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mascaro, Giuseppe

2018-04-01

This study uses daily rainfall records of a dense network of 240 gauges in central Arizona to gain insights on (i) the variability of the seasonal distributions of rainfall extremes; (ii) how the seasonal distributions affect the shape of the annual distribution; and (iii) the presence of spatial patterns and orographic control for these distributions. For this aim, recent methodological advancements in peak-over-threshold analysis and application of the Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) were used to assess the suitability of the GPD hypothesis and improve the estimation of its parameters, while limiting the effect of short sample sizes. The distribution of daily rainfall extremes was found to be heavy-tailed (i.e., GPD shape parameter ξ > 0) during the summer season, dominated by convective monsoonal thunderstorms. The exponential distribution (a special case of GPD with ξ = 0) was instead showed to be appropriate for modeling wintertime daily rainfall extremes, mainly caused by cold fronts transported by westerly flow. The annual distribution exhibited a mixed behavior, with lighter upper tails than those found in summer. A hybrid model mixing the two seasonal distributions was demonstrated capable of reproducing the annual distribution. Organized spatial patterns, mainly controlled by elevation, were observed for the GPD scale parameter, while ξ did not show any clear control of location or orography. The quantiles returned by the GPD were found to be very similar to those provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Atlas 14, which used the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution. Results of this work are useful to improve statistical modeling of daily rainfall extremes at high spatial resolution and provide diagnostic tools for assessing the ability of climate models to simulate extreme events.

Dewatering treatments to increase dry matter content of the brown seaweed, kelp (Laminaria digitata ((Hudson) JV Lamouroux)).

PubMed

Gallagher, Joe A; Turner, Lesley B; Adams, Jessica M M; Dyer, Philip W; Theodorou, Michael K

2017-01-01

Macroalgal water content is an on-going problem for the use of readily accessible seaweeds in sustainable biorefining, including fuel production. Silage is a reduced-water, compactable, easily stored, transportable material. Ensiling could establish a non-seasonal supply of preserved algal biomass, but requires high initial dry matter content to mitigate environmental pollution risks from effluent. This study investigated potential dewatering methods for kelp harvested throughout the year. Treatments included air-drying, osmotic media and acids. Significant interactions between treatment and harvest-time were observed for traits of interest. Fresh weight loss during treatment was composed of changes in water and dry matter content. Air-drying gave reliable increase in final dry matter content; in summer and autumn 30% dry matter content was reached after 24h. Dilute hydrochloric acid reduced stickiness and rendered material suitable for dewatering by screw-pressing; it may be possible to use the consequent pH reduction to promote efficient preservation. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

The ICDP Dead Sea deep drill cores: records of climate change and tectonics in the Levant

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goldstein, S. L.; Stein, M.; Ben-Avraham, Z.; Agnon, A.; Ariztegui, D.; Brauer, A.; Haug, G. H.; Ito, E.; Kitagawa, H.; Torfstein, A.

2012-12-01

The Dead Sea drainage basin sits at the boundary of the Mediterranean and the Saharan climate zones, and the basin is formed by the Dead Sea transform fault. The ICDP-funded Dead Sea Deep Drilling Project recovered the longest and most complete paleo-environmental and paleo-seismic record in the Middle East, drilling holes of ~450 and ~350 meters in deep (~300 m below the lake level) and shallow sites (~3 m), respectively, and. The sediments record the evolving environmental conditions (e.g. droughts, rains, floods, dust-storms), as well as tectonics (earthquake layers). The core can be dated using 14C on organic materials, U-Th on inorganic aragonite, stable isotopes, and layer counting. They were opened, described, and XRF-scanned during June to November 2011, the first sampling party took place in July 2012, and study is now underway. Some important conclusions can already be drawn. The stratigraphy reflects the climate conditions. During wet climate intervals the lithology is typically varve-like laminated aragonite and detritus (aad), reflecting summer and winter seasons, respectively, and sequences of mud. Gypsum layers reflect more arid climate, and salt (halite) indicates extreme aridity. The Dead Sea expands during glacials, and the portion of the core that corresponds to the last glacial Lisan Formation above the shoreline is easily recognized in the core based on the common lithological sequence, and this allows us to infer a broad scale age model. Interglacials show all the lithologic facies (aad, mud, gypsum, salt), reflecting extreme climate variability, while glacials contain the aad, mud, and gypsum but lack salt layers. Thus we estimate that the deep site hole extends into MIS 7 (to ~200,000 years). Thin (up to several cm thick) seismic layers occur throughout the core, but thick (up to several meters) landslide deposits only occur during glacial intervals. The most dramatic discovery is evidence of an extreme dry interval during MIS 5 at the deep site. There is a ~40 cm thick interval of partly rounded pebbles in the core at ~235 m below the lake floor. It is the only clean pebbly unit in the core, and resembles a beach deposit. Below the layer there is ~45 meters of mainly salt. These observations indicate a severe dry interval during MIS 5. This observation has implications for the Middle East today, where the Dead Sea level is dropping at rates >1m/year, as all the countries in the area are using all the runoff. GCM models indicate a more arid future in the region. The core shows that the runoff nearly stopped during the last interglacial without human intervention. Dating is underway to constrain the timing of the extreme drydown.

Evaluation of different types of dry-cured ham by Italian and French consumers.

PubMed

Cannata, S; Ratti, S; Meteau, K; Mourot, J; Baldini, P; Corino, C

2010-04-01

The aim was to analyse the distribution of preferences between two group of consumers (100 consumers each) from different countries (Italy and France), in order to establish which type of dry-cured ham is most acceptable and to compare results across countries using preference mapping. A preference test was carried out on four types of dry-cured hams: Parma ham (P), Italian non-branded ham (I) and hams derived from pigs fed a diet containing sunflower oil (2.5%) (S) or extruded linseed (5%) (L). The consumers were requested to evaluate each single descriptor using a hedonic scale and assigning a score between 1 (dislike extremely) and 9 (like extremely). The four different dry-cured hams were sensorially well differentiated by the consumers of different nationalities. Italian consumers preferred P and S hams while French consumers preferred S, I and P hams in terms of overall acceptability and acceptability of aroma and flavour. L ham was negatively discriminated, compared to the other hams, by both consumer groups. A good differentiation between the dry-cured hams was obtained using the internal preference map method: P was discriminated from the other hams. 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Association of spring-summer hydrology and meteorology with human West Nile virus infection in West Texas, USA, 2002-2016.

PubMed

Ukawuba, Israel; Shaman, Jeffrey

2018-04-04

The emergence of West Nile virus (WNV) in the Western Hemisphere has motivated research into the processes contributing to the incidence and persistence of the disease in the region. Meteorology and hydrology are fundamental determinants of vector-borne disease transmission dynamics of a region. The availability of water influences the population dynamics of vector and host, while temperature impacts vector growth rates, feeding habits, and disease transmission potential. Characterization of the temporal pattern of environmental factors influencing WNV risk is crucial to broaden our understanding of local transmission dynamics and to inform efforts of control and surveillance. We used hydrologic, meteorological and WNV data from west Texas (2002-2016) to analyze the relationship between environmental conditions and annual human WNV infection. A Bayesian model averaging framework was used to evaluate the association of monthly environmental conditions with WNV infection. Findings indicate that wet conditions in the spring combined with dry and cool conditions in the summer are associated with increased annual WNV cases. Bayesian multi-model inference reveals monthly means of soil moisture, specific humidity and temperature to be the most important variables among predictors tested. Environmental conditions in March, June, July and August were the leading predictors in the best-fitting models. The results significantly link soil moisture and temperature in the spring and summer to WNV transmission risk. Wet spring in association with dry and cool summer was the temporal pattern best-describing WNV, regardless of year. Our findings also highlight that soil moisture may be a stronger predictor of annual WNV transmission than rainfall.

Coastal Fog Sustains Summer Baseflow in Northern Californian Watershed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chung, M.; Dufour, A.; Leonardson, R.; Thompson, S. E.; Dawson, T. E.

2015-12-01

The Mediterranean climate of Northern California imposes significant water stress on ecosystems and water resources during the dry summer months. During summer, frequently the only water inputs occur as occult precipitation, in the form of fog and dew. In this study, we characterized the role of coastal fog, a dominant feature of Northern Californian coastal ecosystems and a widespread phenomenon associated with deep marine upwelling in west coast, arid, and Mediterranean climates worldwide. We monitored fog occurrence and intensity, throughfall following canopy interception of fog, soil moisture, streamflow, and meteorological variables, and made visual observations of the spatial extent of fog using time-lapse imagery in Upper Pilarcitos Creek Watershed (managed by San Francisco Public Utilities Commission as part of the San Francisco area water supply). We adopted a stratified sampling design that captured the watershed's elevation gradient, forest-edge versus interior locations, and different vegetation cover. The point-scale observations of throughfall inputs and transpiration suppression, estimated from the Penman equation, were upscaled using such watershed features and the observed fog "footprint" identified from the time-lapse images. When throughfall input and fog-induced transpiration suppression were incorporated into the operational watershed model, they improved estimates of summer baseflow, which remained persistently higher than could be explained without the fog effects. Fog, although providing relatively small volumetric inputs to the water balance, appears to offer significant relief of water stress throughout the terrestrial and aquatic components of the coastal Californian ecosystem and thus should be accounted for when assessing water stress availability in dry ecosystems.

Analysis of climate and topographic effect on wildfire regime in Liguria, Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fiorucci, Paolo; Biondi, Guido; Campo, Lorenzo; D'Andrea, Mirko; Degli Esposti, Silvia

2016-04-01

Wildfire risk is particularly significant in Italy, both in summer and winter season due to the high topographic and vegetation heterogeneity of the territory. Liguria is one of the few regions in Italy affected by wildfires both in summer and winter. Most of the fires in Italy occur in summer season and the burned area is largely greater than in winter season. In Liguria, the number of wildfires and the burned area is higher in winter than in summer. Winter fire regime is mainly due to frequent extremely dry winds from the north in condition of curing for most of the herbaceous species. Southern and central regions and the large islands are characterized by a severe summer fire regime, because of the higher temperatures and prolonged lack of precipitation. The threat of wildfires in Italy is not confined to wooded areas as they extend to agricultural areas and urban-forest interface areas. In view of the limited availability of fire risk management resources, most of which are used in the management of national and regional air services, it is necessary to precisely identify the areas most vulnerable to fire risk. The few resources available can thus be used on a yearly basis to mitigate problems in the areas at highest risk by defining a program of forest management interventions. The availability of a mapping of fire perimeters spans almost 20 years (1996-2013), and this, combined with a detailed knowledge of topography, climate and land cover allowed to understand which are the main features involved in forest fire occurrences and their behavior. The seasonality of the fire regime was also considered, partitioning the analysis in two macro season (November-April and May- October). Total precipitation and average air temperature obtained from the interpolation of 30 years-long time series from 164 raingauges and 127 thermometers series were considered. The analysis was based on a recursive-quantiles subdivision of the territory in classes based on the different available information layers: elevation, slope, aspect, rainfall height, temperature (the latter subdivided in winter and summer periods). The algorithm is designed in order to assure the equal representation of each class, in which the number of fires occurred in the period of analysis is considered, in order to have an estimation of the fire hazard with a constant statistical confidence. The analysis was carried out at a spatial resolution of 20 m on the Liguria region territory (5400 km2) by using a dataset of fires occurrences that spans from 1996 to 2013. The results show a very high correlation with the topographic aspects both in winter and summer. Rainfall is almost uncorrelated in both season. Air temperature is high correlated with the burned area but it is strictly related with elevation. Independently by the season and the vegetation cover, elevation and slope show a very high correlation with the burned area determining almost completely the wildfire regime in Liguria.

Using Multiple Metrics to Analyze Trends and Sensitivity of Climate Variability in New York City

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, J.; Towey, K.; Booth, J. F.; Baez, S. D.

2017-12-01

As the overall temperature of Earth continues to warm, changes in the Earth's climate are being observed through extreme weather events, such as heavy precipitation events and heat waves. This study examines the daily precipitation and temperature record of the greater New York City region during the 1979-2014 period. Daily station observations from three greater New York City airports: John F. Kennedy (JFK), LaGuardia (LGA) and Newark (EWR), are used in this study. Multiple statistical metrics are used in this study to analyze trends and variability in temperature and precipitation in the greater New York City region. The temperature climatology reveals a distinct seasonal cycle, while the precipitation climatology exhibits greater annual variability. Two types of thresholds are used to examine the variability of extreme events: extreme threshold and daily anomaly threshold. The extreme threshold indicates how the strength of the overall maximum is changing whereas the daily anomaly threshold indicates if the strength of the daily maximum is changing over time. We observed an increase in the frequency of anomalous daily precipitation events over the last 36 years, with the greatest frequency occurring in 2011. The most extreme precipitation events occur during the months of late summer through early fall, with approximately four expected extreme events occurring per year during the summer and fall. For temperature, the greatest frequency and variation in temperature anomalies occur during winter and spring. In addition, temperature variance is also analyzed to determine if there is greater day-to-day temperature variability today than in the past.

Regionally dependent summer heat wave response to increased surface temperature in the US

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lopez, H.; Dong, S.; Kirtman, B. P.; Goni, G. J.; Lee, S. K.; Atlas, R. M.; West, R.

2017-12-01

Climate projections for the 21st Century suggest an increase in the occurrence of heat waves. However, the time it takes for the externally forced signal of climate change to emerge against the background of natural variability (i.e., Time of Emergence, ToE) particularly on the regional scale makes reliable future projection of heat waves challenging. Here, we combine observations and model simulations under present and future climate forcing to assess internal variability versus external forcing in modulating US heat waves. We characterized the most common heat wave patterns over the US by the use of clustering of extreme events by their spatial distribution. For each heat wave cluster, we assess changes in the probability density function (PDF) of summer temperature extremes by modeling the PDF as a stochastically generated skewed (SGS) distribution. The probability of necessary causation for each heat wave cluster was also quantified, allowing to make assessments of heat extreme attribution to anthropogenic climate change. The results suggest that internal variability will dominate heat wave occurrence over the Great Plains with ToE occurring in the 2050s (2070s) and of occurrence of ratio of warm-to-cold extremes of 1.7 (1.7) for the Northern (Southern) Plains. In contrast, external forcing will dominate over the Western (Great Lakes) region with ToE occurring as early as in the 2020s (2030s) and warm-to-cold extremes ratio of 6.4 (10.2), suggesting caution in attributing heat extremes to external forcing due to their regional dependence.

Physiological Responses of Beech and Sessile Oak in a Natural Mixed Stand During a Dry Summer

PubMed Central

RAFTOYANNIS, YANNIS; RADOGLOU, KALLIOPI

2002-01-01

Responses of CO2 assimilation and stomatal conductance to decreasing leaf water potential, and to environmental factors, were analysed in a mixed natural stand of sessile oak (Quercus petraea ssp. medwediewii) and beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) in Greece during the exceptionally dry summer of 1998. Seasonal courses of leaf water potential were similar for both species, whereas mean net photosynthesis and stomatal conductance were always higher in sessile oak than in beech. The relationship between net photosynthesis and stomatal conductance was strong for both species. Sessile oak had high rates of photosynthesis even under very low leaf water potentials and high air temperatures, whereas the photosynthetic rate of beech decreased at low water potentials. Diurnal patterns were similar in both species but sessile oak had higher rates of CO2 assimilation than beech. Our results indicate that sessile oak is more tolerant of drought than beech, due, in part, to its maintenance of photosynthesis at low water potential. PMID:12102528

Earth Observations taken by the Expedition 10 crew

NASA Image and Video Library

2005-04-07

ISS010-E-23451 (7 April 2005) --- Khartoum, Sudan is featured in this image photographed by an Expedition 10 crewmember on the International Space Station (ISS). Sudan’s capital city Khartoum, which means Elephant’s Trunk, describes the shape of the Nile River where the Blue and the White Nile Rivers meet to form the united Nile that flows northward into Egypt. This image shows the rivers near the end of the dry season. The White Nile (western branch) runs through Sudan from Uganda. The White Nile’s equatorial source produces a flow that runs at a nearly constant rate throughout the year. The nearly dry Blue Nile from the highlands of Ethiopia swells in the late summer and early fall with rains from the summer monsoons. The flow can be so great the Nile flows backward at the junction. In recent years, floods in Khartoum have occurred in August with heavy monsoon rainfall. Khartoum is one of the largest Muslim cities in North Africa, but has a fairly short history.

Transfer coefficient of 226Ra from vegetation to meadow voles, Microtus pennsylvanicus, on U mill tailings

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cloutier, N.R.; Clulow, F.V.; Lim, T.P.

The 226Ra level in vegetation growing on U mine tailings in Elliot Lake, Ontario, Canada, was 211 + 22 mBq g-1 (dry weight) compared to less than 7 mBq g-1 (dry weight) in material from a control site. Skeletons of meadow voles (Microtus pennsylvanicus) established on the tailings had concentrations of 226Ra of 6083 +/- 673 mBq per animal in winter; 7163 +/- 1077 mBq per animal in spring; 1506 +/- 625 mBq per animal in summer; and 703 +/- 59 mBq per animal in fall, compared to less than 7 mBq per animal in controls. The /sup 226/Ra transfermore » coefficient from vegetation to voles (defined as total millibecquerels of /sup 226/Ra in adult vole per total millibecquerels of 226Ra consumed by the vole in its lifetime) was calculated as 4.6 +/- 2.9 X 10(-2) in summer and 2.8 +/- 0.6 X 10(-2) in fall.« less

Development and Evaluation of Solar Tunnel Dryer for Commercial Fish Drying

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mohod, A. G.; Khandetod, Y. P.; Shrirame, H. Y.

2014-01-01

The local practice of drying fish in open sun drying poses problems such as high moisture content, uncontrolled drying and contamination. These problems can be avoided by proper use of improved methods such as the solar tunnel dryer, which results in faster drying of fish. The semi cylindrical walk-in type natural convection solar tunnel dryer, having drying area of 37.5 m2 was developed and evaluated for the drying of fish products in comparison with the conventional method of open sun drying. The experiments were conducted without fish and with fish to evaluate the performance of solar tunnel dryer. The average rise in temperature inside the solar tunnel dryer was found to be 11.24 °C and 18.29 °C over the ambient temperature during no load test in winter and summer respectively. The average 28 % saving in time was observed for selected fish drying using solar tunnel dryer over open sun drying method with average drying efficiency of 19 %. The economics was calculated for drying of prawns ( Parapaeneopsis stylifera) by solar tunnel dryer and open sun drying system on the basis of business as a whole. The economics of the solar tunnel dryer is presented in term of Net present worth, Benefit-Cost Ratio, Payback period, Profitability index and Internal rate of return. The pay back period for solar tunnel dryer was found to be 2.84 years.

Disentangling plasticity of serotiny, a key adaptive trait in a Mediterranean conifer.

PubMed

Martín-Sanz, Ruth C; Santos-Del-Blanco, Luis; Notivol, Eduardo; Chambel, M Regina; San-Martín, Roberto; Climent, José

2016-09-01

Serotiny, the maintenance of ripe seeds in closed fruits or cones until fire causes dehiscence, is a key adaptive trait of plants in fire-prone ecosystems, but knowledge of phenotypic plasticity for cone retention in woody plants is extremely scarce. On the basis of published literature and our field observations, we hypothesized that increased aridity might decrease the aerial seed bank as a plastic response, not necessarily adaptive. We used a Pinus halepensis common garden replicated in three contrasted sites (mild, cold, and dry) to separate population differentiation from phenotypic plasticity of cone serotiny and canopy cone bank (CCB). Differences in growth among trees of the same provenance allowed us to include size effect as a proxy of ontogenetic age for the same chronological age of the trees. Tree size had a strong negative effect on serotiny, but serotiny degree differed among trial sites even after accounting for size effects. As hypothesized, serotiny was lower at the harsh (dry and cold) sites compared with the mild site. Genetic variation for size-dependent cone serotiny and significant population × site interaction were confirmed, the latter implying different plasticity of serotiny among populations. Population differentiation for CCB showed an ecotypic trend, with positive correlation with temperature oscillation (continentality) and negative correlation with summer rainfall. Growth-limiting environments exacerbated the precocious release of seeds, contrary to the ecotypic trend found for the aerial cone bank, suggesting a counter-gradient plasticity. This plastic response is potentially maladaptive under a scenario of frequent wildfires. © 2016 Botanical Society of America.

On the Dominant Factor Controlling Seasonal Hydrological Forecast Skill in China

DOE PAGES

Zhang, Xuejun; Tang, Qiuhong; Leng, Guoyong; ...

2017-11-20

Initial conditions (ICs) and climate forecasts (CFs) are the two primary sources of seasonal hydrological forecast skill. However, their relative contribution to predictive skill remains unclear in China. In this study, we investigate the relative roles of ICs and CFs in cumulative runoff (CR) and soil moisture (SM) forecasts using 31-year (1980–2010) ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP) and reverse-ESP (revESP) simulations with the Variable Capacity Infiltration (VIC) hydrologic model. The results show that the relative importance of ICs and CFs largely depends on climate regimes. The influence of ICs is stronger in a dry or wet-to-dry climate regime that covers themore » northern and western interior regions during the late fall to early summer. In particular, ICs may dominate the forecast skill for up to three months or even six months during late fall and winter months, probably due to the low precipitation value and variability in the dry period. In contrast, CFs become more important for most of southern China or during summer months. The impact of ICs on SM forecasts tends to cover larger domains than on CR forecasts. These findings will greatly benefit future work that will target efforts towards improving current forecast levels for the particular regions and forecast periods.« less

On the Dominant Factor Controlling Seasonal Hydrological Forecast Skill in China

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhang, Xuejun; Tang, Qiuhong; Leng, Guoyong

Initial conditions (ICs) and climate forecasts (CFs) are the two primary sources of seasonal hydrological forecast skill. However, their relative contribution to predictive skill remains unclear in China. In this study, we investigate the relative roles of ICs and CFs in cumulative runoff (CR) and soil moisture (SM) forecasts using 31-year (1980–2010) ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP) and reverse-ESP (revESP) simulations with the Variable Capacity Infiltration (VIC) hydrologic model. The results show that the relative importance of ICs and CFs largely depends on climate regimes. The influence of ICs is stronger in a dry or wet-to-dry climate regime that covers themore » northern and western interior regions during the late fall to early summer. In particular, ICs may dominate the forecast skill for up to three months or even six months during late fall and winter months, probably due to the low precipitation value and variability in the dry period. In contrast, CFs become more important for most of southern China or during summer months. The impact of ICs on SM forecasts tends to cover larger domains than on CR forecasts. These findings will greatly benefit future work that will target efforts towards improving current forecast levels for the particular regions and forecast periods.« less

An Enhanced Seasonal Transition that Intensified Summer Drought in the Central U.S.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wang, S.-Y.Simon; Santanello, Joseph; Wang, Hailan; Barandiaran, Daniel; Pinker, Rachel; Schubert, Siegfried; Gillies, Robert R.; Oglesby, Robert; Hilburn, Kyle; Kilic, Ayse;