Influence of weather extremes on the water levels of glaciated prairie wetlands

USGS Publications Warehouse

Johnson, W.C.; Boettcher, S.E.; Poiani, K.A.; Guntenspergen, G.

2004-01-01

Orchid Meadows is a long-term wetland research and monitoring site on the Coteau des Prairie in extreme east-central South Dakota, USA. It is a 65-ha Waterfowl Production Area with numerous temporary, seasonal, and semi-permanent wetlands. Ground water and surface water have been monitored at the site from 1987 to 1989 and from 1993 to the present. Vegetation has been monitored since 1993. The monitoring record includes two nearly back-to-back weather extremes: a drought in the late 1980s and a deluge in the early- to mid-1990s. Wetlands differed sharply in water levels between 3-yr dry and wet periods. For example, the time of inundation ranged among semi-permanent wetlands from 13 to 71 percent during the dry years to 100 percent during the wet years, while for seasonal wetlands, it was 0-29 percent and 46-100 percent, respectively, during dry and wet periods. Temporary wetlands had no surface water during the dry period but had standing water 0-67 percent of the time during the deluge years. The highest ground-water levels during the dry period were lower than most levels during the wet period. The difference in the water-table elevations of temporary wetlands between the periods was as much as 4 m. Ground-water levels near semi-permanent wetlands were considerably more stable (annual range of 0.3-1.6 m) than those near temporary wetlands (1.3-2.5 m). The results support the concept that weather extremes drive the wetland cover cycle and other key ecological processes in prairie wetlands. The new data from Orchid Meadows, together with other long-term data sets from North Dakota and Saskatchewan, Canada, are useful for many research purposes, including the parameterization and testing of models that simulate the effects of climate variability and climate change on prairie wetland ecosystems.

Analysis of the Impact of Climate Change on Extreme Hydrological Events in California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ashraf Vaghefi, Saeid; Abbaspour, Karim C.

2016-04-01

Estimating magnitude and occurrence frequency of extreme hydrological events is required for taking preventive remedial actions against the impact of climate change on the management of water resources. Examples include: characterization of extreme rainfall events to predict urban runoff, determination of river flows, and the likely severity of drought events during the design life of a water project. In recent years California has experienced its most severe drought in recorded history, causing water stress, economic loss, and an increase in wildfires. In this paper we describe development of a Climate Change Toolkit (CCT) and demonstrate its use in the analysis of dry and wet periods in California for the years 2020-2050 and compare the results with the historic period 1975-2005. CCT provides four modules to: i) manage big databases such as those of Global Climate Models (GCMs), ii) make bias correction using observed local climate data , iii) interpolate gridded climate data to finer resolution, and iv) calculate continuous dry- and wet-day periods based on rainfall, temperature, and soil moisture for analysis of drought and flooding risks. We used bias-corrected meteorological data of five GCMs for extreme CO2 emission scenario rcp8.5 for California to analyze the trend of extreme hydrological events. The findings indicate that frequency of dry period will increase in center and southern parts of California. The assessment of the number of wet days and the frequency of wet periods suggests an increased risk of flooding in north and north-western part of California, especially in the coastal strip. Keywords: Climate Change Toolkit (CCT), Extreme Hydrological Events, California

Delayed responses of an Arctic ecosystem to an extremely dry summer: impacts on net ecosystem exchange and vegetation functioning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zona, D.; Lipson, D. A.; Richards, J. H.; Phoenix, G. K.; Liljedahl, A. K.; Ueyama, M.; Sturtevant, C. S.; Oechel, W. C.

2013-12-01

The importance and mode of action of extreme events on the global carbon budget are inadequately understood. This includes the differential impact of extreme events on various ecosystem components, lag effects, recovery times, and compensatory processes. Summer 2007 in Barrow, Arctic Alaska, experienced unusually high air temperatures (fifth warmest over a 65 yr period) and record low precipitation (lowest over a 65 yr period). These abnormal conditions resulted in strongly reduced net Sphagnum CO2 uptake, but no effect neither on vascular plant development nor on net ecosystem exchange (NEE) from this arctic tundra ecosystem. Gross primary production (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (Reco) were both generally greater during most of this extreme summer. Cumulative ecosystem C uptake in 2007 was similar to the previous summers, showing the capacity of the ecosystem to compensate in its net ecosystem exchange (NEE) despite the impact on other functions and structure such as substantial necrosis of the Sphagnum layer. Surprisingly, the lowest ecosystem C uptake (2005-2009) was observed during the 2008 summer, i.e the year directly following the extremely summer. In 2008, cumulative C uptake was ∼70% lower than prior years. This reduction cannot solely be attributed to mosses, which typically contribute with ∼40% - of the entire ecosystem C uptake. The minimum summer cumulative C uptake in 2008 suggests that the entire ecosystem experienced difficulty readjusting to more typical weather after experiencing exceptionally warm and dry conditions. Importantly, the return to a substantial cumulative C uptake occurred two summers after the extreme event, which suggest a high resilience of this tundra ecosystem. Overall, these results show a highly complex response of the C uptake and its sub-components to atypically dry conditions. The impact of multiple extreme events still awaits further investigation.

Synoptic moisture pathways associated with mean and extreme precipitation over Canada for winter and spring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tan, X.; Gan, T. Y. Y.; Chen, Y. D.

2017-12-01

Dominant synoptic moisture pathway patterns of vertically integrated water vapor transport (IVT) in winter and spring over Canada West and East were identified using the self-organizing map method. Large-scale meteorological patterns (LSMPs) were related to the variability in seasonal precipitation totals and occurrences of precipitation extremes. Changes in both occurrences of LSMPs and seasonal precipitation occurred under those LSMPs were evaluated to attribute observed changes in seasonal precipitation totals and occurrences of precipitation extremes. Effects of large-scale climate anomalies on occurrences of LSMPs were also examined. Results show that synoptic moisture pathways and LSMPs exhibit the propagation of jet streams as the location and direction of ridges and troughs, and the strength and center of pressure lows and highs varied considerably between LSMPs. Significant decreases in occurrences of synoptic moisture pathway patterns that are favorable with positive precipitation anomalies and more precipitation extremes in winter over Canada West resulted in decreases in seasonal precipitation and occurrences of precipitation extremes. LSMPs resulting in a hot and dry climate and less (more) frequent precipitation extremes over the Canadian Prairies in winter and northwestern Canada in spring are more likely to occur in years with a negative phase of PNA. Occurrences of LSMPs for a wet climate and frequent occurrences of extreme precipitation events over southeastern Canada are associated with a positive phase of NAO. In El Niño years or negative PDO years, LSMPs associated with a dry climate and less frequent precipitation extremes over western Canada tend to occur.

Regional warming of hot extremes accelerated by surface energy fluxes consistent with drying soils

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Donat, M.; Pitman, A.; Seneviratne, S. I.

2017-12-01

Strong regional differences exist in how hot temperature extremes increase under global warming. Using an ensemble of coupled climate models, we examine the regional warming rates of hot extremes relative to annual average warming rates in the same regions. We identify hotspots of accelerated warming of model-simulated hot extremes in Europe, North America, South America and Southeast China. These hotspots indicate where the warm tail of a distribution of temperatures increases faster than the average and are robust across most CMIP5 models. Exploring the conditions on the specific day the hot extreme occurs demonstrates the hotspots are explained by changes in the surface energy fluxes consistent with drying soils. Furthermore, in these hotspot regions we find a relationship between the temperature - heat flux correlation under current climate conditions and the magnitude of future projected changes in hot extremes, pointing to a potential emergent constraint for simulations of future hot extremes. However, the model-simulated accelerated warming of hot extremes appears inconsistent with observations of the past 60 years, except over Europe. The simulated acceleration of hot extremes may therefore be unreliable, a result that necessitates a re-evaluation of how climate models resolve the relevant terrestrial processes.

Analysis of extreme summers and prior late winter/spring conditions in central Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Träger-Chatterjee, C.; Müller, R. W.; Bendix, J.

2013-05-01

Drought and heat waves during summer in mid-latitudes are a serious threat to human health and agriculture and have negative impacts on the infrastructure, such as problems in energy supply. The appearance of such extreme events is expected to increase with the progress of global warming. A better understanding of the development of extremely hot and dry summers and the identification of possible precursors could help improve existing seasonal forecasts in this regard, and could possibly lead to the development of early warning methods. The development of extremely hot and dry summer seasons in central Europe is attributed to a combined effect of the dominance of anticyclonic weather regimes and soil moisture-atmosphere interactions. The atmospheric circulation largely determines the amount of solar irradiation and the amount of precipitation in an area. These two variables are themselves major factors controlling the soil moisture. Thus, solar irradiation and precipitation are used as proxies to analyse extreme sunny and dry late winter/spring and summer seasons for the period 1958-2011 in Germany and adjacent areas. For this purpose, solar irradiation data from the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecast 40-yr and interim re-analysis dataset, as well as remote sensing data are used. Precipitation data are taken from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project. To analyse the atmospheric circulation geopotential data at 850 hPa are also taken from the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecast 40-yr and interim re-analysis datasets. For the years in which extreme summers in terms of high solar irradiation and low precipitation are identified, the previous late winter/spring conditions of solar irradiation and precipitation in Germany and adjacent areas are analysed. Results show that if the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is not very intensely developed, extremely high solar irradiation amounts, together with extremely low precipitation amounts during late winter/spring, might serve as precursor of extremely sunny and dry summer months to be expected.

Long term analysis of wet and dry years in Seoul, Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yoo, Chulsang

2006-03-01

This study investigated the recurrence characteristics of wet and dry years using the annual precipitation data collected in Seoul, Korea since 1776. More than one half of these 200 years of precipitation data are those collected in the Chosun Age using an old Korean rain gauge called Chukwooki. The recurrence characteristics of wet and dry years were investigated for several sets of thresholds, represented by use of the mean and standard deviation (stdv) of the annual precipitation such as mean±0.5stdv, mean±0.75stdv and mean±1.0stdv. These sets of thresholds have been decided so as to make the occurrence of wet and dry years follow the Poisson distribution. For a given set of thresholds, the wet, dry, and normal years are categorized, then the transition probabilities among those years were derived and compared. The average return periods were also derived using the stationary probabilities of wet and dry years. This analysis has been applied not only to the entire data but also to partial data sets composed of the data before and after the long dry period (lasting about 25 years) around 1900. This was to compare and detect the difference in the recurrence characteristics as well as the difference between the old Chukwooki and the modern flip-bucket style rain gauge data. As results, the overall recurrence patterns of wet and dry years have been found to be very similar. Only one obvious difference may be the return period of extremely dry years (for the threshold of mean-stdv), which after the long dry period was found to be longer than that before the long dry period (8.03 and 6.77 years, respectively). A similar result could also be found in the occurrence probability (or, the inverse of return period) of consecutive dry years estimated by applying the Poisson process. That is, for the lowest threshold of mean-stdv, the occurrence probability of consecutive dry years before the long dry period was higher than those after the long dry period. Thus, we may conclude that the possibility of long dry periods is decreasing recently.

The influence of mid-latitude storm tracks on hot, cold, dry and wet extremes

PubMed Central

Lehmann, Jascha; Coumou, Dim

2015-01-01

Changes in mid-latitude circulation can strongly affect the number and intensity of extreme weather events. In particular, high-amplitude quasi-stationary planetary waves have been linked to prolonged weather extremes at the surface. In contrast, analyses of fast-traveling synoptic-scale waves and their direct influence on heat and cold extremes are scarce though changes in such waves have been detected and are projected for the 21st century. Here we apply regression analyses of synoptic activity with surface temperature and precipitation in monthly gridded observational data. We show that over large parts of mid-latitude continental regions, summer heat extremes are associated with low storm track activity. In winter, the occurrence of cold spells is related to low storm track activity over parts of eastern North America, Europe, and central- to eastern Asia. Storm tracks thus have a moderating effect on continental temperatures. Pronounced storm track activity favors monthly rainfall extremes throughout the year, whereas dry spells are associated with a lack thereof. Trend analyses reveal significant regional changes in recent decades favoring the occurrence of cold spells in the eastern US, droughts in California and heat extremes over Eurasia. PMID:26657163

Detecting Climate Signals in Precipitation Extremes from TRMM (1998-2013) - Increasing Contrast Between Wet and Dry Extremes During the "Global Warming Hiatus"

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wu, Huey-Tzu Jenny; Lau, William K.-M.

2016-01-01

We investigate changes in daily precipitation extremes using Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) data (1998-2013), which coincides with the "global warming hiatus." Results show a change in probability distribution functions of local precipitation events (LPEs) during this period consistent with previous global warming studies, indicating increasing contrast between wet and dry extremes, with more intense LPE, less moderate LPE, and more dry (no rain) days globally. Analyses for land and ocean separately reveal more complex and nuanced changes over land, characterized by a strong positive trend (+12.0% per decade, 99% confidence level (c.l.)) in frequency of extreme LPEs over the Northern Hemisphere extratropics during the wet season but a negative global trend (-6.6% per decade, 95% c.l.) during the dry season. A significant global drying trend (3.2% per decade, 99% c.l.) over land is also found during the dry season. Regions of pronounced increased dry events include western and central U.S., northeastern Asia, and Southern Europe/Mediterranean.

Dryland ecosystem responses to precipitation extremes and wildfire at a long-term rainfall manipulation experiment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brown, R. F.; Collins, S. L.

2017-12-01

Climate is becoming increasingly more variable due to global environmental change, which is evidenced by fewer, but more extreme precipitation events, changes in precipitation seasonality, and longer, higher severity droughts. These changes, combined with a rising incidence of wildfire, have the potential to strongly impact net primary production (NPP) and key biogeochemical cycles, particularly in dryland ecosystems where NPP is sequentially limited by water and nutrient availability. Here we utilize a ten-year dataset from an ongoing long-term field experiment established in 2007 in which we experimentally altered monsoon rainfall variability to examine how our manipulations, along with naturally occurring events, affect NPP and associated biogeochemical cycles in a semi-arid grassland in central New Mexico, USA. Using long-term regional averages, we identified extremely wet monsoon years (242.8 mm, 2013), and extremely dry monsoon years (86.0 mm, 2011; 80.0 mm, 2015) and water years (117.0 mm, 2011). We examined how changes in precipitation variability and extreme events affected ecosystem processes and function particularly in the context of ecosystem recovery following a 2009 wildfire. Response variables included above- and below-ground plant biomass (ANPP & BNPP) and abundance, soil nitrogen availability, and soil CO2 efflux. Mean ANPP ranged from 3.6 g m-2 in 2011 to 254.5 g m-2 in 2013, while BNPP ranged from 23.5 g m-2 in 2015 to 194.2 g m-2 in 2013, demonstrating NPP in our semi-arid grassland is directly linked to extremes in both seasonal and annual precipitation. We also show increased nitrogen deposition positively affects NPP in unburned grassland, but has no significant impact on NPP post-fire except during extremely wet monsoon years. While soil respiration rates reflect lower ANPP post-fire, patterns in CO2 efflux have not been shown to change significantly in that efflux is greatest following large precipitation events preceded by longer drying periods. Current land surface models poorly represent dryland ecosystems, which frequently undergo extreme weather events. Our long-term experiment provides key insights into ecosystem processes and function, thereby providing capacity for model improvement particularly in the context of future environmental change.

Utility of remote sensing-based surface energy balance models to track water stress in rain-fed switchgrass under dry and wet conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhattarai, Nishan; Wagle, Pradeep; Gowda, Prasanna H.; Kakani, Vijaya G.

2017-11-01

The ability of remote sensing-based surface energy balance (SEB) models to track water stress in rain-fed switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.) has not been explored yet. In this paper, the theoretical framework of crop water stress index (CWSI; 0 = extremely wet or no water stress condition and 1 = extremely dry or no transpiration) was utilized to estimate CWSI in rain-fed switchgrass using Landsat-derived evapotranspiration (ET) from five remote sensing based single-source SEB models, namely Surface Energy Balance Algorithm for Land (SEBAL), Mapping ET with Internalized Calibration (METRIC), Surface Energy Balance System (SEBS), Simplified Surface Energy Balance Index (S-SEBI), and Operational Simplified Surface Energy Balance (SSEBop). CWSI estimates from the five SEB models and a simple regression model that used normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), near-surface temperature difference, and measured soil moisture (SM) as covariates were compared with those derived from eddy covariance measured ET (CWSIEC) for the 32 Landsat image acquisition dates during the 2011 (dry) and 2013 (wet) growing seasons. Results indicate that most SEB models can predict CWSI reasonably well. For example, the root mean square error (RMSE) ranged from 0.14 (SEBAL) to 0.29 (SSEBop) and the coefficient of determination (R2) ranged from 0.25 (SSEBop) to 0.72 (SEBAL), justifying the added complexity in CWSI modeling as compared to results from the simple regression model (R2 = 0.55, RMSE = 0.16). All SEB models underestimated CWSI in the dry year but the estimates from SEBAL and S-SEBI were within 7% of the mean CWSIEC and explained over 60% of variations in CWSIEC. In the wet year, S-SEBI mostly overestimated CWSI (around 28%), while estimates from METRIC, SEBAL, SEBS, and SSEBop were within 8% of the mean CWSIEC. Overall, SEBAL was the most robust model under all conditions followed by METRIC, whose performance was slightly worse and better than SEBAL in dry and wet years, respectively. Underestimation of CWSI under extremely dry soil conditions and the substantial role of SM in the regression model suggest that integration of SM in SEB models could improve their performances under dry conditions. These insights will provide useful guidance on the broader applicability of SEB models for mapping water stresses in switchgrass under varying geographical and meteorological conditions.

Atmospheric conditions and weather regimes associated with extreme winter dry spells over the Mediterranean basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raymond, Florian; Ullmann, Albin; Camberlin, Pierre; Oueslati, Boutheina; Drobinski, Philippe

2018-06-01

Very long dry spell events occurring during winter are natural hazards to which the Mediterranean region is extremely vulnerable, because they can lead numerous impacts for environment and society. Four dry spell patterns have been identified in a previous work. Identifying the main associated atmospheric conditions controlling the dry spell patterns is key to better understand their dynamics and their evolution in a changing climate. Except for the Levant region, the dry spells are generally associated with anticyclonic blocking conditions located about 1000 km to the Northwest of the affected area. These anticyclonic conditions are favourable to dry spell occurrence as they are associated with subsidence of cold and dry air coming from boreal latitudes which bring low amount of water vapour and non saturated air masses, leading to clear sky and absence of precipitation. These extreme dry spells are also partly related to the classical four Euro-Atlantic weather regimes are: the two phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation, the Scandinavian "blocking" or "East-Atlantic", and the "Atlantic ridge". Only the The "East-Atlantic", "Atlantic ridge" and the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation are frequently associated with extremes dry spells over the Mediterranean basin but they do not impact the four dry spell patterns equally. Finally long sequences of those weather regimes are more favourable to extreme dry spells than short sequences. These long sequences are associated with the favourable prolonged and reinforced anticyclonic conditions

Effect of Extreme Drought on Tropical Dry Forests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Castro, Saulo; Sanchez-Azofeifa, Arturo; Sato, Hiromitsu; Cowling, Sharon; Vega-Araya, Mauricio

2017-04-01

Tropical dry forests (TDFs) hold a strong economic and cultural connection to human development in the Neotropics. Historically, TDFs not only represent a source of agricultural and urban land but also an important source of goods and ecosystem services for the communities that live around them. Such is the close connection of TDFs to human activity that they are considered the most heavily utilized and disturbed ecosystem in the world. However, TDF have been largely understudied and represent only a fraction of research devoted to globally tropical ecosystems. Thus we lack the framework to properly project how predicted increases in drought events due to climate change will impact TDFs and human society which depend on its services. Our study aims to show the effect of extreme drought on water, food security, and tropical dry forest productivity in the Guanacaste province of Costa Rica. Two pre-ENSO years (2013-2014) and an ENSO year (2015) were compared. The 2013 and 2014 pre-ENSO years were classified as a normal precipitation (1470 mm) and drought year (1027mm), respectively. The 2015 ENSO year was classified as a severe drought (654mm), with amplified effects resulting by the drought experienced during the previous (2014) growing cycle. Effects of the ENSO drought on agriculture and livestock sectors in the province included losses of US13million and US6.5million, respectively. Crop land losses equaled 2,118 hectares and 11,718 hectares were affected. Hydroelectricity generation decreased by 10% and potable water shortages were observed. The Agriculture and Livestock Ministry (MAG) and the National Emergency Commission (CNE) distributed animal feed and supplies to 4,000 farmers affected by the extreme droughts. Eddy covariance flux measurements were used to identify productivity changes during the extreme drought. Changes in phenologic stages and the transitions between CO2 sink to source during mid-growing cycle were observed. Drought significantly delayed the onset of green-up, as well as prolonged the growth season by extending senescence by approximately 30 days beyond the normal season. Comparison of total accumulated forest productivity for each growth cycle indicated significantly lower carbon sequestration during drought years, with decreasing total accumulation as drought severity increased. TDF appeared to compensate for the decreases in productivity rates during drought by lengthening the growth cycle, potentially to allow a minimum productivity threshold to survive the yearly dry season. The dynamic changes occurring in TDF carbon cycling emphasizes the importance of further studies of this ecosystem as it has a direct impact on biodiversity, ecosystem services, and water and food security.

How well do the GCMs replicate the historical precipitation variability in the Colorado River Basin?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guentchev, G.; Barsugli, J. J.; Eischeid, J.; Raff, D. A.; Brekke, L.

2009-12-01

Observed precipitation variability measures are compared to measures obtained using the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3) General Circulation Models (GCM) data from 36 model projections downscaled by Brekke at al. (2007) and 30 model projections downscaled by Jon Eischeid. Three groups of variability measures are considered in this historical period (1951-1999) comparison: a) basic variability measures, such as standard deviation, interdecadal standard deviation; b) exceedance probability values, i.e., 10% (extreme wet years) and 90% (extreme dry years) exceedance probability values of series of n-year running mean annual amounts, where n=1,12; 10% exceedance probability values of annual maximum monthly precipitation (extreme wet months); and c) runs variability measures, e.g., frequency of negative and positive runs of annual precipitation amounts, total number of the negative and positive runs. Two gridded precipitation data sets produced from observations are used: the Maurer et al. (2002) and the Daly et al. (1994) Precipitation Regression on Independent Slopes Method (PRISM) data sets. The data consist of monthly grid-point precipitation averaged on a United States Geological Survey (USGS) hydrological sub-region scale. The statistical significance of the obtained model minus observed measure differences is assessed using a block bootstrapping approach. The analyses were performed on annual, seasonal and monthly scale. The results indicate that the interdecadal standard deviation is underestimated, in general, on all time scales by the downscaled model data. The differences are statistically significant at a 0.05 significance level for several Lower Colorado Basin sub-regions on annual and seasonal scale, and for several sub-regions located mostly in the Upper Colorado River Basin for the months of March, June, July and November. Although the models simulate drier extreme wet years, wetter extreme dry years and drier extreme wet months for the Upper Colorado basin, the differences are mostly not-significant. Exceptions are the results about the extreme wet years for n=3 for sub-region White-Yampa, for n=6, 7, and 8 for sub-region Upper Colorado-Dolores, and about the extreme dry years for n=11 for sub-region Great Divide-Upper Green. None of the results for the sub-regions in the Lower Colorado Basin were significant. For most of the Upper Colorado sub-regions the models simulate significantly lower frequency of negative and positive 4-6 year runs, while for several sub-regions a significantly higher frequency of 2-year negative runs is evident in the model versus the Maurer data comparisons. The model projections versus the PRISM data comparison reveals similar results for the negative runs, while for the positive runs the results indicate that the models simulate higher frequency of the 2-6 year runs. The results for the Lower Colorado basin sub-regions are similar, in general, to these for the Upper Colorado sub-regions. The differences between the simulated and the observed total number of negative or positive runs were not significant for almost all of the sub-regions within the Colorado River Basin.

Observed changes in extreme precipitation in Poland: 1991-2015 versus 1961-1990

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pińskwar, Iwona; Choryński, Adam; Graczyk, Dariusz; Kundzewicz, Zbigniew W.

2018-01-01

Several episodes of extreme precipitation excess and extreme precipitation deficit, with considerable economic and social impacts, have occurred in Europe and in Poland in the last decades. However, the changes of related indices exhibit complex variability. This paper analyses changes in indices related to observed abundance and deficit of precipitated water in Poland. Among studied indices are maximum seasonal 24-h precipitation for the winter half-year (Oct.-March) and the summer half-year (Apr.-Sept.), maximum 5-day precipitation, maximum monthly precipitation and number of days with intense or very intense precipitation (respectively, in excess of 10 mm or 20 mm per day). Also, the warm-seasonal maximum number of consecutive dry days (longest period with daily precipitation below 1 mm) was examined. Analysis of precipitation extremes showed that daily maximum precipitation for the summer half-year increased for many stations, and increases during the summer half-year are more numerous than those in the winter half-year. Also, analysis of 5-day and monthly precipitation sums show increases for many stations. Number of days with intense precipitation increases especially in the north-western part of Poland. The number of consecutive dry days is getting higher for many stations in the summer half-year. Comparison of these two periods: colder 1961-1990 and warmer 1991-2015, revealed that during last 25 years most of statistical indices, such as 25th and 75th percentiles, median, mean and maximum are higher. However, many changes discussed in this paper are weak and statistically insignificant. The findings reported in this paper challenge results based on earlier data that do not include 2007-2015.

Response of vegetation NDVI to climatic extremes in the arid region of Central Asia: a case study in Xinjiang, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yao, Junqiang; Chen, Yaning; Zhao, Yong; Mao, Weiyi; Xu, Xinbing; Liu, Yang; Yang, Qing

2018-02-01

Observed data showed the climatic transition from warm-dry to warm-wet in Xinjiang during the past 30 years and will probably affect vegetation dynamics. Here, we analyze the interannual change of vegetation index based on the satellite-derived normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) with temperature and precipitation extreme over the Xinjiang, using the 8-km NDVI third-generation (NDVI3g) from the Global Inventory Modelling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS) from 1982 to 2010. Few previous studies analyzed the link between climate extremes and vegetation response. From the satellite-based results, annual NDVI significantly increased in the first two decades (1981-1998) and then decreased after 1998. We show that the NDVI decrease over the past decade may conjointly be triggered by the increases of temperature and precipitation extremes. The correlation analyses demonstrated that the trends of NDVI was close to the trend of extreme precipitation; that is, consecutive dry days (CDD) and torrential rainfall days (R24) positively correlated with NDVI during 1998-2010. For the temperature extreme, while the decreases of NDVI correlate positively with warmer mean minimum temperature ( Tnav), it correlates negatively with the number of warmest night days ( Rwn). The results suggest that the climatic extremes have possible negative effects on the ecosystem.

Have precipitation extremes and annual totals been increasing in the world's dry regions over the last 60 years?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sippel, Sebastian; Zscheischler, Jakob; Heimann, Martin; Lange, Holger; Mahecha, Miguel D.; van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan; Otto, Friederike E. L.; Reichstein, Markus

2017-01-01

Daily precipitation extremes and annual totals have increased in large parts of the global land area over the past decades. These observations are consistent with theoretical considerations of a warming climate. However, until recently these trends have not been shown to consistently affect dry regions over land. A recent study, published by Donat et al. (2016), now identified significant increases in annual-maximum daily extreme precipitation (Rx1d) and annual precipitation totals (PRCPTOT) in dry regions. Here, we revisit the applied methods and explore the sensitivity of changes in precipitation extremes and annual totals to alternative choices of defining a dry region (i.e. in terms of aridity as opposed to precipitation characteristics alone). We find that (a) statistical artifacts introduced by data pre-processing based on a time-invariant reference period lead to an overestimation of the reported trends by up to 40 %, and that (b) the reported trends of globally aggregated extremes and annual totals are highly sensitive to the definition of a dry region of the globe. For example, using the same observational dataset, accounting for the statistical artifacts, and based on different aridity-based dryness definitions, we find a reduction in the positive trend of Rx1d from the originally reported +1.6 % decade-1 to +0.2 to +0.9 % decade-1 (period changes for 1981-2010 averages relative to 1951-1980 are reduced to -1.32 to +0.97 % as opposed to +4.85 % in the original study). If we include additional but less homogenized data to cover larger regions, the global trend increases slightly (Rx1d: +0.4 to +1.1 % decade-1), and in this case we can indeed confirm (partly) significant increases in Rx1d. However, these globally aggregated estimates remain uncertain as considerable gaps in long-term observations in the Earth's arid and semi-arid regions remain. In summary, adequate data pre-processing and accounting for uncertainties regarding the definition of dryness are crucial to the quantification of spatially aggregated trends in precipitation extremes in the world's dry regions. In view of the high relevance of the question to many potentially affected stakeholders, we call for a well-reflected choice of specific data processing methods and the inclusion of alternative dryness definitions to guarantee that communicated results related to climate change be robust.

A 576-year Weber River streamflow reconstruction from tree rings for water resource risk assessment in the Wasatch Front, Utah

Treesearch

Matthew F. Bekker; R. Justin DeRose; Brendan M. Buckley; Roger K. Kjelgren; Nathan S. Gill

2014-01-01

We present a 576-year tree-ring-based reconstruction of streamflow for northern Utah's Weber River that exhibits considerable interannual and decadal-scale variability. While the 20th Century instrumental period includes several extreme individual dry years, it was the century with the fewest such years of the entire reconstruction. Extended droughts were more...

Numerical studies on groundwater-grassland relations in an inland arid region in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, J. R.; Hu, L. T.; Sun, K. N.; Liu, X. M.

2017-08-01

In this study, a 2-D numerical model was developed to assess the impacts of groundwater on grassland ecology in the Hulun Lake Basin. An extreme dry climate scenario and water resource management scenario and their interactions in the Hulun Lake Basin were designed, and their influence on groundwater was evaluated. The results show that the grassland ecology is heavily dependent on groundwater, and a distribution of groundwater with a depth of 8 m correlates well with the distribution of grassland. Under the water resource management scenario, the groundwater level will increase to a maximum value of 2.5 m after 15 years around Hulun Lake. The groundwater level will decrease dramatically under the extreme dry climate scenario, thus affecting the environment.

500-year Reconstructions of Circulation in the Northeastern Pacific and Western North America: Relation to Precipitation and Fire Conditions in California and Precipitation in Hawai'i

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wahl, E. R.; Zorita, E.; Trouet, V.; Diaz, H. F.

2015-12-01

A reconstruction of the position of the North Pacific Jet Stream (NPJ) over the past 500 years is evaluated in relation to dry and wet extremes in California and extremes of Sierra Nevada fire activity. This work represents a unique combination of independent annually-resolved paleoclimate and paleoecological reconstructions in the region. Results indicate that fire and precipitation extremes are both closely linked with NPJ winter position, with characteristic wet/low fire and dry/high fire NPJ spatial features in the Pacific adjacent to western North America. These features are in turn evaluated in 21st century climate model scenarios using transient integrations over the past millennium, the instrumental period, and the 21st century. The reconstruction of NPJ position is driven by an analog process that employs independent paleoclimate field reconstructions to select model states closest to the reconstructions; it is thus logically and scientifically most consistent to use comparable models to evaluate the future in relation to the past. Initial results indicate that relatively wet/low fire regional conditions are reasonably possible in the later 21st century under a high greenhouse gas forcing regime (RCP 8.5), even though temperatures rise significantly. Related hydroclimate research reconstructs a precipitation index for the Hawai'ian Islands (HI-precip) over the past 500 years. A northeastern Pacific sea level pressure index reconstructed using the analog process is employed as the driving variable in a calibration against HI-precip. Initial reconstruction results indicate significant bicentennial spectral power, which includes a long-term drying trend that began around 1850 and continues into the first decades of the 21st century. Related statistical downscaling of climate model output for HI-precip to the end of the 21st century suggests the possibility of continued drying under RCP 8.5.

Wildfire Health and Economic Impacts Case Study###

EPA Science Inventory

Since 2008 eastern North Carolina experienced 6 major wildfires, far exceeding the historic 50 year expected rate of return. Initiated by the lighting strikes, these fires spread across multiple feet deep, dry and extremely vulnerable peat bogs. The fires produced massive amounts...

Diagnosing Warm Season Precipitation Over the GCIP Region from a GCM and Reanalysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Oglesby, Robert; Marshall, Susan; Roads, John; Robertson, Franklin R.

2000-01-01

A 45 year simulation using a global general circulation model (GCM), the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Climate Model v.3 (CCM3), forced with observed sea surface temperatures (SST), and 39 years of global National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalyses were analyzed to determine Mississippi River basin warm season (May, June, July or MJJ) wet and dry year composites in the water and energy budgets. Years that have increased MJJ soil moisture over the GEWEX (Global Water and Energy Experiment) Continental Interior Project (GCIP) region also have high precipitation, lower surface temperature, decreased Bowen ratio, and reduced 500 hPa geopotential height (essentially reduced MJJ ridging). The reverse is true for years that have reduced MJJ soil moisture. Wet years are also accompanied by a general increase in moisture transport from the Gulf of Mexico into the central U.S. There is some indication (though weaker) that soil moisture may then affect precipitation and other quantities and be affected in turn by 500 hPa geopotential heights. The correlations are somewhat low, however, demonstrating the difficulty in providing definitive physical links between the remote and local effects. Analysis of two individual years with an extreme wet event (1993) and an extreme dry event (1988) yields the same general relationships as with the wet and dry composites. The composites from this study are currently serving as the basis for a series of experiments aimed at determining the predictability of the land surface and remote SST on the Mississippi River basin and other large-scale river basins.

Atmospheric Rivers and floods in Southern California: Climate forcing of extreme weather events.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hendy, I. L.; Heusser, L. E.; Napier, T.; Pak, D. K.

2016-12-01

Southern California has a Mediterranean type climate characterized by warm dry summers associated with the North Pacific High pressure system and cool, wet winters primarily associated in low pressure systems originating in the high latitude North Pacific. Extreme precipitation, however, is connected to strong zonal flow that brings warm, moist tropical across the Pacific (AKA atmospheric river). Here we present a revised record of flood events in Santa Barbara Basin that have been linked to atmospheric rivers focusing on events associated with transitions between known climate events using new radiocarbon chronology and detailed sediment composition. Flood events identified by homogenous grey layers are present throughout the Holocene with a recurrence every 110 years, but are particularly common (85 year recurrence) between 4,200 and 2,000 years BP. Interval between 6,500 and 4,500 commonly associated with dry conditions in California was associated with fewer flood events (recurrence interval increased to 176 years). Intervals of high lake levels in California associated with pluvials appear to be associated with more frequent extreme precipitation events. The longest recurrence interval (535 years) is associated with the Medieval Climate Anomaly. The season in which the atmospheric river occurs was estimated using the relative abundance of pollen within the flood deposit. The 735 and 1270 C.E. flood events are associated with May-June flowering vegetation, while the most recent events (1861-2 and 1761 C.E.) were associated with November to March flowering vegetation. This agrees with the December-January rainfall records of the historic 1861-62. We conclude the frequency of extreme precipitation events appears to increase as climate cools (e.g. the Little Ice Age).

Climate Impacts on Extreme Energy Consumption of Different Types of Buildings

PubMed Central

Li, Mingcai; Shi, Jun; Guo, Jun; Cao, Jingfu; Niu, Jide; Xiong, Mingming

2015-01-01

Exploring changes of building energy consumption and its relationships with climate can provide basis for energy-saving and carbon emission reduction. Heating and cooling energy consumption of different types of buildings during 1981-2010 in Tianjin city, was simulated by using TRNSYS software. Daily or hourly extreme energy consumption was determined by percentile methods, and the climate impact on extreme energy consumption was analyzed. The results showed that days of extreme heating consumption showed apparent decrease during the recent 30 years for residential and large venue buildings, whereas days of extreme cooling consumption increased in large venue building. No significant variations were found for the days of extreme energy consumption for commercial building, although a decreasing trend in extreme heating energy consumption. Daily extreme energy consumption for large venue building had no relationship with climate parameters, whereas extreme energy consumption for commercial and residential buildings was related to various climate parameters. Further multiple regression analysis suggested heating energy consumption for commercial building was affected by maximum temperature, dry bulb temperature, solar radiation and minimum temperature, which together can explain 71.5 % of the variation of the daily extreme heating energy consumption. The daily extreme cooling energy consumption for commercial building was only related to the wet bulb temperature (R2= 0.382). The daily extreme heating energy consumption for residential building was affected by 4 climate parameters, but the dry bulb temperature had the main impact. The impacts of climate on hourly extreme heating energy consumption has a 1-3 hour delay in all three types of buildings, but no delay was found in the impacts of climate on hourly extreme cooling energy consumption for the selected buildings. PMID:25923205

Climate impacts on extreme energy consumption of different types of buildings.

PubMed

Li, Mingcai; Shi, Jun; Guo, Jun; Cao, Jingfu; Niu, Jide; Xiong, Mingming

2015-01-01

Exploring changes of building energy consumption and its relationships with climate can provide basis for energy-saving and carbon emission reduction. Heating and cooling energy consumption of different types of buildings during 1981-2010 in Tianjin city, was simulated by using TRNSYS software. Daily or hourly extreme energy consumption was determined by percentile methods, and the climate impact on extreme energy consumption was analyzed. The results showed that days of extreme heating consumption showed apparent decrease during the recent 30 years for residential and large venue buildings, whereas days of extreme cooling consumption increased in large venue building. No significant variations were found for the days of extreme energy consumption for commercial building, although a decreasing trend in extreme heating energy consumption. Daily extreme energy consumption for large venue building had no relationship with climate parameters, whereas extreme energy consumption for commercial and residential buildings was related to various climate parameters. Further multiple regression analysis suggested heating energy consumption for commercial building was affected by maximum temperature, dry bulb temperature, solar radiation and minimum temperature, which together can explain 71.5 % of the variation of the daily extreme heating energy consumption. The daily extreme cooling energy consumption for commercial building was only related to the wet bulb temperature (R2= 0.382). The daily extreme heating energy consumption for residential building was affected by 4 climate parameters, but the dry bulb temperature had the main impact. The impacts of climate on hourly extreme heating energy consumption has a 1-3 hour delay in all three types of buildings, but no delay was found in the impacts of climate on hourly extreme cooling energy consumption for the selected buildings.

Climate variability and extremes, interacting with nitrogen storage, amplify eutrophication risk

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lee, Minjin; Shevliakova, Elena; Malyshev, Sergey; Milly, P.C.D.; Jaffe, Peter R.

2016-01-01

Despite 30 years of basin-wide nutrient-reduction efforts, severe hypoxia continues to be observed in the Chesapeake Bay. Here we demonstrate the critical influence of climate variability, interacting with accumulated nitrogen (N) over multidecades, on Susquehanna River dissolved nitrogen (DN) loads, known precursors of the hypoxia in the Bay. We used the process model LM3-TAN (Terrestrial and Aquatic Nitrogen), which is capable of capturing both seasonal and decadal-to-century changes in vegetation-soil-river N storage, and produced nine scenarios of DN-load distributions under different short-term scenarios of climate variability and extremes. We illustrate that after 1 to 3 yearlong dry spells, the likelihood of exceeding a threshold DN load (56 kt yr−1) increases by 40 to 65% due to flushing of N accumulated throughout the dry spells and altered microbial processes. Our analyses suggest that possible future increases in climate variability/extremes—specifically, high precipitation occurring after multiyear dry spells—could likely lead to high DN-load anomalies and hypoxia.

Variability and Extremes of Precipitation in the Global Climate as Determined by the 25-Year GEWEX/GPCP Data Set

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Adler, R. F.; Gu, G.; Curtis, S.; Huffman, G. J.; Bolvin, D. T.; Nelkin, E. J.

2005-01-01

The Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) 25-year precipitation data set is used to evaluate the variability and extremes on global and regional scales. The variability of precipitation year-to-year is evaluated in relation to the overall lack of a significant global trend and to climate events such as ENSO and volcanic eruptions. The validity of conclusions and limitations of the data set are checked by comparison with independent data sets (e.g., TRMM). The GPCP data set necessarily has a heterogeneous time series of input data sources, so part of the assessment described above is to test the initial results for potential influence by major data boundaries in the record. Regional trends, or inter-decadal changes, are also analyzed to determine validity and correlation with other long-term data sets related to the hydrological cycle (e.g., clouds and ocean surface fluxes). Statistics of extremes (both wet and dry) are analyzed at the monthly time scale for the 25 years. A preliminary result of increasing frequency of extreme monthly values will be a focus to determine validity. Daily values for an eight-year are also examined for variation in extremes and compared to the longer monthly-based study.

Future Simulated Intensification of Precipitation Extremes, CMIP5 Model Uncertainties and Dependencies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bador, M.; Donat, M.; Geoffroy, O.; Alexander, L. V.

2017-12-01

Precipitation intensity during extreme events is expected to increase with climate change. Throughout the 21st century, CMIP5 climate models project a general increase in annual extreme precipitation in most regions. We investigate how robust this future increase is across different models, regions and seasons. We find that there is strong similarity in extreme precipitation changes between models that share atmospheric physics, reducing the ensemble of 27 models to 14 independent projections. We find that future simulated extreme precipitation increases in most models in the majority of land grid cells located in the dry, intermediate and wet regions according to each model's precipitation climatology. These increases significantly exceed the range of natural variability estimated from long equilibrium control runs. The intensification of extreme precipitation across the entire spectrum of dry to wet regions is particularly robust in the extra-tropics in both wet and dry season, whereas uncertainties are larger in the tropics. The CMIP5 ensemble therefore indicates robust future intensification of annual extreme rainfall in particular in extra-tropical regions. Generally, the CMIP5 robustness is higher during the dry season compared to the wet season and the annual scale, but inter-model uncertainties in the tropics remain important.

Relationship Between South Atlantic Subtropical High and South Atlantic SST Anomalies during Extreme Precipitation Events on Southeast Brazil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pampuch, L.; Ambrizzi, T.

2012-12-01

The Southeast region of Brazil comprises the states of Sao Paulo, Minas Gerais, Rio de Janeiro and Espirito Santo. It occupies 10.85% of Brazilian territory and is highly urbanized. The Southeast Brazil is the biggest geoeconomic region of the country having a strong and diverse economy. Agriculture dominates in all states of the region. The main agricultural products are sugar cane, coffee, cotton, maize, cassava, rice, beans and fruits. Livestock farming is also practiced in the region. The largest herd of cattle is found in the state of Minas Gerais. These activities are highly dependent on the amount and distribution of rainfall. Studies of extreme precipitation events over Brazil have been well emphasized in the literature over the years and their relationship with anomalies of sea surface temperature (SST) in both the Pacific and the Atlantic Ocean have been analyzed. This paper investigates the extreme events occurring in southeastern Brazil from 1982 to 2004 using the technique of quantiles. The composite technique was applied to precipitation, sea level pressure anomaly (SLP) and sea surface temperature anomaly (SST) data in order to investigate the characteristics of rainfall patterns, the position and intensity of South Atlantic subtropical high (SASH) and SST anomalies in the Southern Atlantic Ocean (SAO) in the occurrence of these events and to make a distinction between dry and wet extremes. Analyzing the precipitation patterns, it was noticed that the composition of dry events throughout the Southeast Brazil has negative precipitation anomalies. Particularly, in the southern part of the region there is a large precipitation deficit, having an average of 50mm in the winter months. The composition for the wet events shows that, on average, positive precipitation anomalies with the southern region containing the highest cumulative average, reaching a positive anomaly of 100mm. The composition of SLP in the case of dry events indicates a positive anomaly of pressure on SAO close to the South America continent and a negative anomaly far from the continent. This configuration might represent a southwest movement of the SASH. For the wet events composition is possible to note an opposite configuration: an negative anomaly is seen near the South American continent and a positive one is away of it. Such a configuration may represent a weakening of SASH and a shift to northeast part of the SAO. In the composition of the SST anomalies is possible to note a different pattern for both cases with regard to the tropical Pacific, indicating that in dry years an El Niño pattern is evident and during the wet years a La Niña pattern prevails. On the other hand, for the SAO, colder SST anomalies in the dry years was observed next to the coast of South America, and during the rainy years a positive anomaly was observed away from the continent.

Development of heat and drought related extreme weather events and their effect on winter wheat yields in Germany

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lüttger, Andrea B.; Feike, Til

2018-04-01

Climate change constitutes a major challenge for high productivity in wheat, the most widely grown crop in Germany. Extreme weather events including dry spells and heat waves, which negatively affect wheat yields, are expected to aggravate in the future. It is crucial to improve the understanding of the spatiotemporal development of such extreme weather events and the respective crop-climate relationships in Germany. Thus, the present study is a first attempt to evaluate the historic development of relevant drought and heat-related extreme weather events from 1901 to 2010 on county level (NUTS-3) in Germany. Three simple drought indices and two simple heat stress indices were used in the analysis. A continuous increase in dry spells over time was observed over the investigated periods from 1901-1930, 1931-1960, 1961-1990 to 2001-2010. Short and medium dry spells, i.e., precipitation-free periods longer than 5 and 8 days, respectively, increased more strongly compared to longer dry spells (longer than 11 days). The heat-related stress indices with maximum temperatures above 25 and 28 °C during critical wheat growth phases showed no significant increase over the first three periods but an especially sharp increase in the final 1991-2010 period with the increases being particularly pronounced in parts of Southwestern Germany. Trend analysis over the entire 110-year period using Mann-Kendall test revealed a significant positive trend for all investigated indices except for heat stress above 25 °C during flowering period. The analysis of county-level yield data from 1981 to 2010 revealed declining spatial yield variability and rather constant temporal yield variability over the three investigated (1981-1990, 1991-2000, and 2001-2010) decades. A clear spatial gradient manifested over time with variability in the West being much smaller than in the east of Germany. Correlating yield variability with the previously analyzed extreme weather indices revealed strong spatiotemporal fluctuations in explanatory power of the different indices over all German counties and the three time periods. Over the 30 years, yield deviations were increasingly well correlated with heat and drought-related indices, with the number of days with maximum temperature above 25 °C during anthesis showing a sharp increase in explanatory power over entire Germany in the final 2001-2010 period.

Assessing the ability of operational snow models to predict snowmelt runoff extremes (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wood, A. W.; Restrepo, P. J.; Clark, M. P.

2013-12-01

In the western US, the snow accumulation and melt cycle of winter and spring plays a critical role in the region's water management strategies. Consequently, the ability to predict snowmelt runoff at time scales from days to seasons is a key input for decisions in reservoir management, whether for avoiding flood hazards or supporting environmental flows through the scheduling of releases in spring, or for allocating releases for multi-state water distribution in dry seasons of year (using reservoir systems to provide an invaluable buffer for many sectors against drought). Runoff forecasts thus have important benefits at both wet and dry extremes of the climatological spectrum. The importance of the prediction of the snow cycle motivates an assessment of the strengths and weaknesses of the US's central operational snow model, SNOW17, in contrast to process-modeling alternatives, as they relate to simulating observed snowmelt variability and extremes. To this end, we use a flexible modeling approach that enables an investigation of different choices in model structure, including model physics, parameterization and degree of spatiotemporal discretization. We draw from examples of recent extreme events in western US watersheds and an overall assessment of retrospective model performance to identify fruitful avenues for advancing the modeling basis for the operational prediction of snow-related runoff extremes.

Increasing climate whiplash in 21st century California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Swain, D. L.; Langenbrunner, B.; Neelin, J. D.; Hall, A. D.

2017-12-01

Temperate "Mediterranean" climate regimes across the globe are particularly susceptible to wide swings between drought and flood—of which California's rapid transition from record multi-year dryness between 2012-2016 to extreme wetness during 2016-2017 provides a dramatic example. The wide-ranging human and environmental impacts of this recent "climate whiplash" event in a highly-populated, economically critical, and biodiverse region highlight the importance of understanding weather and climate extremes at both ends of the hydroclimatic spectrum. Previous studies have examined the potential contribution of anthropogenic warming to recent California extremes, but findings to date have been mixed and primarily drought-focused. Here, we use specific historical California flood and drought events as thresholds for quantifying long-term changes in precipitation extremes using a large ensemble of multi-decadal climate model simulations (CESM-LENS). We find that greenhouse gas emissions are already responsible for a detectable increase in both wet and dry extremes across portions of California, and that increasing 21st century "climate whiplash" will likely yield large increases in the frequency of both rapid "dry-to-wet" transitions and severe flood events over a wide range of timescales. This projected intensification of California's hydrological cycle would seriously challenge the region's existing water storage, conveyance, and flood control infrastructure—even absent large changes in mean precipitation.

Associations between extreme precipitation and acute gastro-intestinal illness due to cryptosporidiosis and giardiasis in an urban Canadian drinking water system (1997-2009).

PubMed

Chhetri, Bimal K; Takaro, Tim K; Balshaw, Robert; Otterstatter, Michael; Mak, Sunny; Lem, Marcus; Zubel, Marc; Lysyshyn, Mark; Clarkson, Len; Edwards, Joanne; Fleury, Manon D; Henderson, Sarah B; Galanis, Eleni

2017-10-01

Drinking water related infections are expected to increase in the future due to climate change. Understanding the current links between these infections and environmental factors is vital to understand and reduce the future burden of illness. We investigated the relationship between weekly reported cryptosporidiosis and giardiasis (n = 7,422), extreme precipitation (>90th percentile), drinking water turbidity, and preceding dry periods in a drinking water system located in greater Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada (1997-2009) using distributed lag non-linear Poisson regression models adjusted for seasonality, secular trend, and the effect of holidays on reporting. We found a significant increase in cryptosporidiosis and giardiasis 4-6 weeks after extreme precipitation. The effect was greater following a dry period. Similarly, extreme precipitation led to significantly increased turbidity only after prolonged dry periods. Our results suggest that the risk of cryptosporidiosis and giardiasis increases with extreme precipitation, and that the effects are more pronounced after a prolonged dry period. Given that extreme precipitation events are expected to increase with climate change, it is important to further understand the risks from these events, develop planning tools, and build resilience to these future risks.

Increased frequency of ENSO-related hydroclimate extremes in a warming climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Q.; Miao, C.; AghaKouchak, A.

2017-12-01

Global warming will likely alter surface warming in tropical Pacific regions, leading to changes in the characteristics of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) characteristics and an incresed frequency of extreme ENSO events. The ENSO-related climatic variation and associated impacts will likely be modified in a warmer climatic state. However, little is known about the effect of changes in ENSO teleconnections with regard to future dry and wet conditions over land around the globe, especially outside tropical regions. We used the model simulations of the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) for different twenty-first-century emission scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) to investigate the changes in the ENSO' teleconnection on dry/wet condition over global land. Our results show that 64.64% and 38.12% of 181 river basins studied are expected to experience an increase in the frequency of unusually wet/dry events forced by both ENSO phases under the RCP 4.5 and 8.5, respectively. The anomalous precipitation variability forced by ENSO events will be intensified through a "wet-get-wetter, dry-get-drier" mechanism over west North America, South America, central Asia, and west Asia. More than 850 million people are at risk of exposure to unusually dry/wet events. There is a potential increased risk of high-intensity dry/wet events, with an increase/decrease in the 50-year return level of SPI value for drying/wetting regions. These results have important implications for disaster evaluation and related policies and for appropriate engineering design.

Nonlinear effect of climate on plague during the third pandemic in China

PubMed Central

Xu, Lei; Liu, Qiyong; Stige, Leif Chr.; Ben Ari, Tamara; Fang, Xiye; Chan, Kung-Sik; Wang, Shuchun; Stenseth, Nils Chr.; Zhang, Zhibin

2011-01-01

Over the years, plague has caused a large number of deaths worldwide and subsequently changed history, not the least during the period of the Black Death. Of the three plague pandemics, the third is believed to have originated in China. Using the spatial and temporal human plague records in China from 1850 to 1964, we investigated the association of human plague intensity (plague cases per year) with proxy data on climate condition (specifically an index for dryness/wetness). Our modeling analysis demonstrates that the responses of plague intensity to dry/wet conditions were different in northern and southern China. In northern China, plague intensity generally increased when wetness increased, for both the current and the previous year, except for low intensity during extremely wet conditions in the current year (reflecting a dome-shaped response to current-year dryness/wetness). In southern China, plague intensity generally decreased when wetness increased, except for high intensity during extremely wet conditions of the current year. These opposite effects are likely related to the different climates and rodent communities in the two parts of China: In northern China (arid climate), rodents are expected to respond positively to high precipitation, whereas in southern China (humid climate), high precipitation is likely to have a negative effect. Our results suggest that associations between human plague intensity and precipitation are nonlinear: positive in dry conditions, but negative in wet conditions. PMID:21646523

Nonlinear effect of climate on plague during the third pandemic in China.

PubMed

Xu, Lei; Liu, Qiyong; Stige, Leif Chr; Ben Ari, Tamara; Fang, Xiye; Chan, Kung-Sik; Wang, Shuchun; Stenseth, Nils Chr; Zhang, Zhibin

2011-06-21

Over the years, plague has caused a large number of deaths worldwide and subsequently changed history, not the least during the period of the Black Death. Of the three plague pandemics, the third is believed to have originated in China. Using the spatial and temporal human plague records in China from 1850 to 1964, we investigated the association of human plague intensity (plague cases per year) with proxy data on climate condition (specifically an index for dryness/wetness). Our modeling analysis demonstrates that the responses of plague intensity to dry/wet conditions were different in northern and southern China. In northern China, plague intensity generally increased when wetness increased, for both the current and the previous year, except for low intensity during extremely wet conditions in the current year (reflecting a dome-shaped response to current-year dryness/wetness). In southern China, plague intensity generally decreased when wetness increased, except for high intensity during extremely wet conditions of the current year. These opposite effects are likely related to the different climates and rodent communities in the two parts of China: In northern China (arid climate), rodents are expected to respond positively to high precipitation, whereas in southern China (humid climate), high precipitation is likely to have a negative effect. Our results suggest that associations between human plague intensity and precipitation are nonlinear: positive in dry conditions, but negative in wet conditions.

Life at extreme elevations on Atacama volcanoes: the closest thing to Mars on Earth?

PubMed

Schmidt, S K; Gendron, E M S; Vincent, K; Solon, A J; Sommers, P; Schubert, Z R; Vimercati, L; Porazinska, D L; Darcy, J L; Sowell, P

2018-03-20

Here we describe recent breakthroughs in our understanding of microbial life in dry volcanic tephra ("soil") that covers much of the surface area of the highest elevation volcanoes on Earth. Dry tephra above 6000 m.a.s.l. is perhaps the best Earth analog for the surface of Mars because these "soils" are acidic, extremely oligotrophic, exposed to a thin atmosphere, high UV fluxes, and extreme temperature fluctuations across the freezing point. The simple microbial communities found in these extreme sites have among the lowest alpha diversity of any known earthly ecosystem and contain bacteria and eukaryotes that are uniquely adapted to these extreme conditions. The most abundant eukaryotic organism across the highest elevation sites is a Naganishia species that is metabolically versatile, can withstand high levels of UV radiation and can grow at sub-zero temperatures, and during extreme diurnal freeze-thaw cycles (e.g. - 10 to + 30 °C). The most abundant bacterial phylotype at the highest dry sites sampled (6330 m.a.s.l. on Volcán Llullaillaco) belongs to the enigmatic B12-WMSP1 clade which is related to the Ktedonobacter/Thermosporothrix clade that includes versatile organisms with the largest known bacterial genomes. Close relatives of B12-WMSP1 are also found in fumarolic soils on Volcán Socompa and in oligotrophic, fumarolic caves on Mt. Erebus in Antarctica. In contrast to the extremely low diversity of dry tephra, fumaroles found at over 6000 m.a.s.l. on Volcán Socompa support very diverse microbial communities with alpha diversity levels rivalling those of low elevation temperate soils. Overall, the high-elevation biome of the Atacama region provides perhaps the best "natural experiment" in which to study microbial life in both its most extreme setting (dry tephra) and in one of its least extreme settings (fumarolic soils).

Vulnerability and Sensitivity of Women and the Aged to Hydrological Extremes in Rural Communities of South Eastern Nigeria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mbajiorgu, Constantine; Ezenne, Gloria I.; Ndulue, Emeka L.

2017-04-01

Annual rainfall total of Southeastern Nigeria varies widely from year to year and across the seasons. Southeastern Nigeria is marked with two distinctive seasons, namely: the rainy season (occurs March through November) and the dry season (December through February). Highest daily rainfall of this area occurs in the months of July through September. Climate change has brought about either prolonged rainy or dry season in this region. Flash floods are common features in Southeastern Nigeria during the rainy (wet) season, but the unprecedented floods of 2012 represent the worst with 21 million people displaced, 597,476 houses destroyed or damaged, over 363 people killed and an estimated loss of USD 19.6 billion. Hydrological extremes such as these affect men and women differently because of the different roles socio-culturally assigned to them. Women are more vulnerable and sensitive to floods and drought because of their conventional gender responsibilities. This study assesses how women and the elderly of rural communities of Southeastern Nigeria are affected by hydrological extremes, their vulnerability to the effects as well as risk reduction approaches to cope with and/or adapt to the impacts of climate change. In the study area, women are predominantly the providers of food, water and fuel, and climate change has adverse impacts on all three. Women in these rural communities practice subsistence farming during the rainy season. Their farm lands are submerged during flood events destroying their crops and they are helpless during prolonged dry seasons. Inadequacy of hydrological data makes it difficult to predict and forecast hydrological extremes in the region. Several other factors exacerbate vulnerability of women and the aged to the impacts of hydrological extremes, such as rural poverty, limited livelihood options, education, lack of basic services, and socio-cultural norms. The poverty level affects their resilience and recovery from any flood disaster. It is proposed to reduce the risks associated with hydrological extremes in this region by providing a master plan for flood control and relief measures for potential victims; floods mitigation through land use regulation and watershed management; building institutional capacity for flood prediction and creating public awareness, as well as minimize the impact of floods and droughts through the provision and maintenance of appropriate engineering structures.

Changes in seasonal streamflow extremes experienced in rivers of Northwestern South America (Colombia)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pierini, J. O.; Restrepo, J. C.; Aguirre, J.; Bustamante, A. M.; Velásquez, G. J.

2017-04-01

A measure of the variability in seasonal extreme streamflow was estimated for the Colombian Caribbean coast, using monthly time series of freshwater discharge from ten watersheds. The aim was to detect modifications in the streamflow monthly distribution, seasonal trends, variance and extreme monthly values. A 20-year length time moving window, with 1-year successive shiftments, was applied to the monthly series to analyze the seasonal variability of streamflow. The seasonal-windowed data were statistically fitted through the Gamma distribution function. Scale and shape parameters were computed using the Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) and the bootstrap method for 1000 resample. A trend analysis was performed for each windowed-serie, allowing to detect the window of maximum absolute values for trends. Significant temporal shifts in seasonal streamflow distribution and quantiles (QT), were obtained for different frequencies. Wet and dry extremes periods increased significantly in the last decades. Such increase did not occur simultaneously through the region. Some locations exhibited continuous increases only at minimum QT.

Survival, growth and reproduction of non-native Nile tilapia II: fundamental niche projections and invasion potential in the northern Gulf of Mexico.

PubMed

Lowe, Michael R; Wu, Wei; Peterson, Mark S; Brown-Peterson, Nancy J; Slack, William T; Schofield, Pamela J

2012-01-01

Understanding the fundamental niche of invasive species facilitates our ability to predict both dispersal patterns and invasion success and therefore provides the basis for better-informed conservation and management policies. Here we focus on Nile tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus Linnaeus, 1758), one of the most widely cultured fish worldwide and a species that has escaped local aquaculture facilities to become established in a coastal-draining river in Mississippi (northern Gulf of Mexico). Using empirical physiological data, logistic regression models were developed to predict the probabilities of Nile tilapia survival, growth, and reproduction at different combinations of temperature (14 and 30°C) and salinity (0-60, by increments of 10). These predictive models were combined with kriged seasonal salinity data derived from multiple long-term data sets to project the species' fundamental niche in Mississippi coastal waters during normal salinity years (averaged across all years) and salinity patterns in extremely wet and dry years (which might emerge more frequently under scenarios of climate change). The derived fundamental niche projections showed that during the summer, Nile tilapia is capable of surviving throughout Mississippi's coastal waters but growth and reproduction were limited to river mouths (or upriver). Overwinter survival was also limited to river mouths. The areas where Nile tilapia could survive, grow, and reproduce increased during extremely wet years (2-368%) and decreased during extremely dry years (86-92%) in the summer with a similar pattern holding for overwinter survival. These results indicate that Nile tilapia is capable of 1) using saline waters to gain access to other watersheds throughout the region and 2) establishing populations in nearshore, low-salinity waters, particularly in the western portion of coastal Mississippi.

Survival, Growth and Reproduction of Non-Native Nile Tilapia II: Fundamental Niche Projections and Invasion Potential in the Northern Gulf of Mexico

PubMed Central

Lowe, Michael R.; Wu, Wei; Peterson, Mark S.; Brown-Peterson, Nancy J.; Slack, William T.; Schofield, Pamela J.

2012-01-01

Understanding the fundamental niche of invasive species facilitates our ability to predict both dispersal patterns and invasion success and therefore provides the basis for better-informed conservation and management policies. Here we focus on Nile tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus Linnaeus, 1758), one of the most widely cultured fish worldwide and a species that has escaped local aquaculture facilities to become established in a coastal-draining river in Mississippi (northern Gulf of Mexico). Using empirical physiological data, logistic regression models were developed to predict the probabilities of Nile tilapia survival, growth, and reproduction at different combinations of temperature (14 and 30°C) and salinity (0–60, by increments of 10). These predictive models were combined with kriged seasonal salinity data derived from multiple long-term data sets to project the species' fundamental niche in Mississippi coastal waters during normal salinity years (averaged across all years) and salinity patterns in extremely wet and dry years (which might emerge more frequently under scenarios of climate change). The derived fundamental niche projections showed that during the summer, Nile tilapia is capable of surviving throughout Mississippi's coastal waters but growth and reproduction were limited to river mouths (or upriver). Overwinter survival was also limited to river mouths. The areas where Nile tilapia could survive, grow, and reproduce increased during extremely wet years (2–368%) and decreased during extremely dry years (86–92%) in the summer with a similar pattern holding for overwinter survival. These results indicate that Nile tilapia is capable of 1) using saline waters to gain access to other watersheds throughout the region and 2) establishing populations in nearshore, low-salinity waters, particularly in the western portion of coastal Mississippi. PMID:22848533

Survival, growth and reproduction of non-native Nile tilapia II: fundamental niche projections and invasion potential in the northern Gulf of Mexico

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lowe, Michael R.; Wu, Wei; Peterson, Mark S.; Brown-Peterson, Nancy J.; Slack, William T.; Schofield, Pamela J.

2012-01-01

Understanding the fundamental niche of invasive species facilitates our ability to predict both dispersal patterns and invasion success and therefore provides the basis for better-informed conservation and management policies. Here we focus on Nile tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus Linnaeus, 1758), one of the most widely cultured fish worldwide and a species that has escaped local aquaculture facilities to become established in a coastal-draining river in Mississippi (northern Gulf of Mexico). Using empirical physiological data, logistic regression models were developed to predict the probabilities of Nile tilapia survival, growth, and reproduction at different combinations of temperature (14 and 30°C) and salinity (0–60, by increments of 10). These predictive models were combined with kriged seasonal salinity data derived from multiple long-term data sets to project the species' fundamental niche in Mississippi coastal waters during normal salinity years (averaged across all years) and salinity patterns in extremely wet and dry years (which might emerge more frequently under scenarios of climate change). The derived fundamental niche projections showed that during the summer, Nile tilapia is capable of surviving throughout Mississippi's coastal waters but growth and reproduction were limited to river mouths (or upriver). Overwinter survival was also limited to river mouths. The areas where Nile tilapia could survive, grow, and reproduce increased during extremely wet years (2–368%) and decreased during extremely dry years (86–92%) in the summer with a similar pattern holding for overwinter survival. These results indicate that Nile tilapia is capable of 1) using saline waters to gain access to other watersheds throughout the region and 2) establishing populations in nearshore, low-salinity waters, particularly in the western portion of coastal Mississippi.

Extreme Precipitation in Poland in the Years 1951-2010

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malinowska, Miroslawa

2017-12-01

The characteristics of extreme precipitation, including the dominant trends, were analysed for eight stations located in different parts of Poland for the period 1951-2010. Five indices enabling the assessment of the intensity and frequency of both extremely dry and wet conditions were applied. The indices included the number of days with precipitation ≥10mm·d-1 (R10), maximum number of consecutive dry days (CDD), maximum 5-day precipitation total (R5d), simple daily intensity index (SDII), and the fraction of annual total precipitation due to events exceeding the 95th percentile calculated for the period 1961-1990. Annual trends were calculated using standard linear regression method, while the fit of the model was assessed with the F-test at the 95% confidence level. The analysed changes in extreme precipitation showed mixed patterns. A significant positive trend in the number of days with precipitation ≥10mm·d-1 (R10) was observed in central Poland, while a significant negative one, in south-eastern Poland. Based on the analysis of maximum 5-day precipitation totals (R5d), statistically significant positive trends in north-western, western and eastern parts of the country were detected, while the negative trends were found in the central and northeastern parts. Daily precipitation, expressed as single daily intensity index (SDII), increased over time in northern and central Poland. In southern Poland, the variation of SDII index showed non-significant negative tendencies. Finally, the fraction of annual total precipitation due to the events exceeding the 1961-1990 95th percentile increased at one station only, namely, in Warsaw. The indicator which refers to dry conditions, i.e. maximum number of consecutive dry days (CDD) displayed negative trends throughout the surveyed area, with the exception of Szczecin that is a representative of north-western Poland.

Influence of hydrologic processes on reproduction of the introduced bivalve Potamocorbula amurensis in northern San Francisco Bay, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Parchaso, F.; Thompson, J.K.

2002-01-01

Monthly censusing of reproductive condition of the Asian clam Potamocorbula amurensis at four sites in northern San Francisco Bay over a 9-yr period revealed year-to-year differences in local reproductive activity that are associated with patterns of hydrologic variability. Between 1989 and 1992, Northern California experienced a drought, whereas the period between 1993 and 1998 was marked by a mix of wet and dry years. We took advantage of the extreme year-to-year differences to examine reproductive responses to river inflow patterns. Populations of P. amurensis at the upstream sites in Suisun Bay and Carquinez Strait were more reproductively active during wet years than dry years. Conversely, at the downstream site in San Pablo Bay, the population was more reproductively active during dry years than wet years. We suggest that the different reproductive patterns observed reflect the clam's response to different sources of food. During wet years, organic matter from the rivers augments food supplies in Suisun Bay. During dry years, when inflow into the San Francisco Bay Estuary from the rivers is reduced, water transported from the adjacent ocean into the estuary as far as San Pablo Bay provides a supplemental food supply for the local production. The populations take advantage of these spatially distinct food supplies by initiating and maintaining local reproductive activity. We conclude that the ability of P. amurensis to consume and use various types of food to regulate its reproductive activity is part of the reason for its success as an invasive species.

Associations between ozone and morbidity using the Spatial Synoptic Classification system

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Synoptic circulation patterns (large-scale tropospheric motion systems) affect air pollution and, potentially, air-pollution-morbidity associations. We evaluated the effect of synoptic circulation patterns (air masses) on the association between ozone and hospital admissions for asthma and myocardial infarction (MI) among adults in North Carolina. Methods Daily surface meteorology data (including precipitation, wind speed, and dew point) for five selected cities in North Carolina were obtained from the U.S. EPA Air Quality System (AQS), which were in turn based on data from the National Climatic Data Center of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. We used the Spatial Synoptic Classification system to classify each day of the 9-year period from 1996 through 2004 into one of seven different air mass types: dry polar, dry moderate, dry tropical, moist polar, moist moderate, moist tropical, or transitional. Daily 24-hour maximum 1-hour ambient concentrations of ozone were obtained from the AQS. Asthma and MI hospital admissions data for the 9-year period were obtained from the North Carolina Department of Health and Human Services. Generalized linear models were used to assess the association of the hospitalizations with ozone concentrations and specific air mass types, using pollutant lags of 0 to 5 days. We examined the effect across cities on days with the same air mass type. In all models we adjusted for dew point and day-of-the-week effects related to hospital admissions. Results Ozone was associated with asthma under dry tropical (1- to 5-day lags), transitional (3- and 4-day lags), and extreme moist tropical (0-day lag) air masses. Ozone was associated with MI only under the extreme moist tropical (5-day lag) air masses. Conclusions Elevated ozone levels are associated with dry tropical, dry moderate, and moist tropical air masses, with the highest ozone levels being associated with the dry tropical air mass. Certain synoptic circulation patterns/air masses in conjunction with ambient ozone levels were associated with increased asthma and MI hospitalizations. PMID:21609456

Year-round record of Dry Valley soil CO2 flux provides insights into Antarctic soil dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Risk, D. A.; Lee, C.; Macintyre, C. M.; Cary, C.

2012-12-01

The McMurdo Dry Valleys of Antarctica host extreme soil microbial communities that have been extensively studied within the past decade. Activity of microbial communities is routinely measured via soil CO2 flux, and some useful Antarctic measurements have been made during short Austral summers. These studies are mostly spatial in nature, but temporal patterns are also valuable and may provide insights into critical thresholds and the interplay between various mechanisms that drive CO2 flux and its variation. New membrane-based Forced Diffusion (FD) soil efflux techniques offer promise for this application. The purpose of this study was to use a specially designed FD instrument in Hidden Valley of the Antarctic Dry Valleys to evaluate hardware performance in year-round deployments, and to identify features of interest with respect to soil CO2 flux variation. Overall, the deployment was successful. Small but sustained positive fluxes were present only twice during the year. The first such event was small but consistent and of long duration, occurring in the Austral winter. The second was more volatile and likely of microbial origin, and appeared for roughly a month at the end of the calendar year within the Austral summer. The observed patterns suggest that Hidden Valley soil CO2 fluxes are not solely biological in nature, but likely modulated by a combination of biological, geological, and physical processes, which will be discussed in this presentation. In future studies, additional measurement locations, and simultaneous subsurface and lower atmospheric gradient concentration measurements (power-permitting) would be extremely valuable for interpreting measured fluxes, to help identify advective depletion events, the depth source of fluxes, and changes in soil and atmospheric diffusivities.

Identification of QTL for drought tolerance and characterization of extreme phenotypes in the Buster x Roza mapping population

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Terminal and intermittent drought limits dry bean production worldwide.The Buster/Roza mapping population (140 F7:9 RILs) has been screened for drought tolerance across multiple years/locations. In 2011 and 2012 the RILs were tested for terminal drought response at two locations: Othello, WA and Sco...

Trends in atmospheric patterns conducive to seasonal precipitation and temperature extremes in California.

PubMed

Swain, Daniel L; Horton, Daniel E; Singh, Deepti; Diffenbaugh, Noah S

2016-04-01

Recent evidence suggests that changes in atmospheric circulation have altered the probability of extreme climate events in the Northern Hemisphere. We investigate northeastern Pacific atmospheric circulation patterns that have historically (1949-2015) been associated with cool-season (October-May) precipitation and temperature extremes in California. We identify changes in occurrence of atmospheric circulation patterns by measuring the similarity of the cool-season atmospheric configuration that occurred in each year of the 1949-2015 period with the configuration that occurred during each of the five driest, wettest, warmest, and coolest years. Our analysis detects statistically significant changes in the occurrence of atmospheric patterns associated with seasonal precipitation and temperature extremes. We also find a robust increase in the magnitude and subseasonal persistence of the cool-season West Coast ridge, resulting in an amplification of the background state. Changes in both seasonal mean and extreme event configurations appear to be caused by a combination of spatially nonuniform thermal expansion of the atmosphere and reinforcing trends in the pattern of sea level pressure. In particular, both thermal expansion and sea level pressure trends contribute to a notable increase in anomalous northeastern Pacific ridging patterns similar to that observed during the 2012-2015 California drought. Collectively, our empirical findings suggest that the frequency of atmospheric conditions like those during California's most severely dry and hot years has increased in recent decades, but not necessarily at the expense of patterns associated with extremely wet years.

Trends in atmospheric patterns conducive to seasonal precipitation and temperature extremes in California

PubMed Central

Swain, Daniel L.; Horton, Daniel E.; Singh, Deepti; Diffenbaugh, Noah S.

2016-01-01

Recent evidence suggests that changes in atmospheric circulation have altered the probability of extreme climate events in the Northern Hemisphere. We investigate northeastern Pacific atmospheric circulation patterns that have historically (1949–2015) been associated with cool-season (October-May) precipitation and temperature extremes in California. We identify changes in occurrence of atmospheric circulation patterns by measuring the similarity of the cool-season atmospheric configuration that occurred in each year of the 1949–2015 period with the configuration that occurred during each of the five driest, wettest, warmest, and coolest years. Our analysis detects statistically significant changes in the occurrence of atmospheric patterns associated with seasonal precipitation and temperature extremes. We also find a robust increase in the magnitude and subseasonal persistence of the cool-season West Coast ridge, resulting in an amplification of the background state. Changes in both seasonal mean and extreme event configurations appear to be caused by a combination of spatially nonuniform thermal expansion of the atmosphere and reinforcing trends in the pattern of sea level pressure. In particular, both thermal expansion and sea level pressure trends contribute to a notable increase in anomalous northeastern Pacific ridging patterns similar to that observed during the 2012–2015 California drought. Collectively, our empirical findings suggest that the frequency of atmospheric conditions like those during California’s most severely dry and hot years has increased in recent decades, but not necessarily at the expense of patterns associated with extremely wet years. PMID:27051876

Changes in Concurrent Precipitation and Temperature Extremes

DOE PAGES

Hao, Zengchao; AghaKouchak, Amir; Phillips, Thomas J.

2013-08-01

While numerous studies have addressed changes in climate extremes, analyses of concurrence of climate extremes are scarce, and climate change effects on joint extremes are rarely considered. This study assesses the occurrence of joint (concurrent) monthly continental precipitation and temperature extremes in Climate Research Unit (CRU) and University of Delaware (UD) observations, and in 13 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) global climate simulations. Moreover, the joint occurrences of precipitation and temperature extremes simulated by CMIP5 climate models are compared with those derived from the CRU and UD observations for warm/wet, warm/dry, cold/wet, and cold/dry combinations of joint extremes.more » The number of occurrences of these four combinations during the second half of the 20th century (1951–2004) is assessed on a common global grid. CRU and UD observations show substantial increases in the occurrence of joint warm/dry and warm/wet combinations for the period 1978–2004 relative to 1951–1977. The results show that with respect to the sign of change in the concurrent extremes, the CMIP5 climate model simulations are in reasonable overall agreement with observations. The results reveal notable discrepancies between regional patterns and the magnitude of change in individual climate model simulations relative to the observations of precipitation and temperature.« less

Linking Teleconnections and Iowa's Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rowe, S. T.; Villarini, G.; Lavers, D. A.; Scoccimarro, E.

2013-12-01

In recent years Iowa and the U.S. Midwest has experienced both extreme drought and flood periods. With a drought in 2012 bounded by major floods in 2011 and 2013, the rapid progression from one extreme to the next is on the forefront of the public mind. Given that Iowa is a major agricultural state, extreme weather conditions can have severe socioeconomic consequences. In this research we investigate the large-scale climate processes that occurred concurrently and before a range of dry/wet and cold/hot periods to improve process understanding of these events. It is essential to understand the large-scale climate processes, as these can then provide valuable insight toward the development of long-term climate forecasts for Iowa. In this study monthly and seasonal surface temperature and precipitation over 1950-2012 across Iowa are used. Precipitation and surface temperature data are retrieved from the Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) Climate Group at Oregon State University. The large-scale atmospheric fields are obtained from the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) / National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Reanalysis 1 Project. Precipitation is stratified according to wet, normal, and dry conditions, while temperature according to hot, average, and cold periods. Different stratification criteria based on the precipitation and temperature distributions are examined. Mean sea-level pressure and sea-surface temperature composite maps for the northern hemisphere are then produced for the wet/dry conditions, and cold/hot conditions. Further analyses include correlation, anomalies, and assessment of large-scale planetary wave activity, shedding light on the differences and similarities among the opposite weather conditions. The results of this work will highlight regional weather patterns that are related to the climate over Iowa, providing valuable insight into the mechanisms controlling the occurrence of potentially extreme weather conditions over this area.

Microbial activity discovered in previously ice-entombed Arctic ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Welker, J. M.; Fahnestock, J. T.; Henry, G. H. R.; 0'Dea, K. W.; Piper, R. E.

One of the more intriguing discoveries in the biogeochemical sciences in recent years is the tremendous capacity of microbial populations to occupy and flourish in extreme habitats [Rothschild and Mancinelli 2001]. Microbial populations survive and multiply under a diversity of harsh conditions, including the hot springs of Yellowstone National Park, Wyoming, and on the ocean floor around thermal vents. At the other extreme, active microbial communities occupy some of the coldest and driest habitats on Earth. For instance, a variety of bacterial and fungal species have been found in the Dry Valleys of Antarctica, and there is evidence that microbes are also present beneath the Antarctic Ice Sheet in Lake Vostok, a system that has not been exposed to the atmosphere for thousands of years.

Relation of water level and fish availability to wood stork reproduction in the southern Everglades, Florida

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kushlan, James A.; Ogden, John C.; Higer, Aaron L.

1975-01-01

The wood stork is a species of colonial wading bird in the Everglades that is most sensitive to changes in the availability of food. Previous studies have shown that the initiation and success of wood stork nesting depends on high densities of fish concentrated in ponds and other catchment basins during the dry season. The extreme dependence of the wood stork on the cyclic hydrologic regime of the southern Florida wetlands makes it an indicator of the well-being and ecological stability of the Everglades. The wood stork has declined in numbers over the last 25 years. One reason for the decline in wood stork population was the change in the hydrologic regimen of the Everglades which affected the feeding habitat and the food production. The fish on which the wood stork feeds increase in density during the dry season as water levels fall. In the Everglades marsh, densities were highest in front of the drying edge of surface water at a depth of about 0.3 m. Dry-season densities were greatest when a drought occurred the previous year. Historically wood stork nesting success was associated with high summer water levels, high rates of surface-water discharge and high rates of drying. Before the closure of the south side of Conservation Area 3 in 1962, years of successful and unsuccessful nesting were characterized by different patterns of drying. These patterns changed after 1962 and generally the predictability of successful nesting breaks down thereafter. Only two nesting years after 1962 were successful and in only one of these was the drying rate similar to years of successful nesting before 1962. Two other potentially successful years failed after 1962. This suggests that further changes in the hydrobiological relations occurred within the Everglades after 1962. Lack of successful nesting after 1962 can be attributed in large part to late colony formation and the interruption of nesting by winter rainfall. In this period (1962-72), colonies formed earlier in years of high early drying rates than in years of low early drying rates. Delay of colony formation is ultimately the result of inability to attain a suitable nutritional state since food supply is the primary factor in the initiation of nesting. Many of the complex food associations of the wood stork remain to be explained.

Western US high June 2015 temperatures and their relation to global warming and soil moisture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Philip, Sjoukje Y.; Kew, Sarah F.; Hauser, Mathias; Guillod, Benoit P.; Teuling, Adriaan J.; Whan, Kirien; Uhe, Peter; Oldenborgh, Geert Jan van

2018-04-01

The Western US states Washington (WA), Oregon (OR) and California (CA) experienced extremely high temperatures in June 2015. The temperature anomalies were so extreme that they cannot be explained with global warming alone. We investigate the hypothesis that soil moisture played an important role as well. We use a land surface model and a large ensemble from the weather@home modelling effort to investigate the coupling between soil moisture and temperature in a warming world. Both models show that May was anomalously dry, satisfying a prerequisite for the extreme heat wave, and they indicate that WA and OR are in a wet-to-dry transitional soil moisture regime. We use two different land surface-atmosphere coupling metrics to show that there was strong coupling between temperature, latent heat flux and the effect of soil moisture deficits on the energy balance in June 2015 in WA and OR. June temperature anomalies conditioned on wet/dry conditions show that both the mean and extreme temperatures become hotter for dry soils, especially in WA and OR. Fitting a Gaussian model to temperatures using soil moisture as a covariate shows that the June 2015 temperature values fit well in the extrapolated empirical temperature/drought lines. The high temperature anomalies in WA and OR are thus to be expected, given the dry soil moisture conditions and that those regions are in the transition from a wet to a dry regime. CA is already in the dry regime and therefore the necessity of taking soil moisture into account is of lower importance.

Interactions of Multiple Atmospheric Circulation Drive the Drought in Tarim River Basin.

PubMed

Wu, Yong-Ping; Feng, Guo-Lin; Li, Bai-Lian

2016-05-20

Global warming is likely to cause overall drying of land surfaces and aridity increasing leading to expansion of dry climate zones. There is an increased risk of extremely arid environment and large deserts developed progressively in the central Asia. However, the key factors causing the drying in mid-Asia remain inconclusive. Here, we analyzed the relationship among precipitation, water vapor transportation in Tarim River Basin (TRB) and Multiple Atmospheric Circulation (MAC) to explore the mechanism of MAC driving the drying in TRB, through comparing MAC between abundant and scarce precipitation years. We found that Westerly Circulation (WC) and Asian Summer Monsoon (ASM) are likely to promote the precipitation respectively. Whereas, they not only have their own influence but also restrict each other and facilitate the forming of peculiar water vapor transport channel for TRB, which is probably to restrain the precipitation and its distribution pattern and accelerate the drying in this region. Our results enrich the findings on mechanisms of wet places becoming wetter while dry areas getting drier under the global warming.

Interactions of Multiple Atmospheric Circulation Drive the Drought in Tarim River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Yong-Ping; Feng, Guo-Lin; Li, Bai-Lian

2016-05-01

Global warming is likely to cause overall drying of land surfaces and aridity increasing leading to expansion of dry climate zones. There is an increased risk of extremely arid environment and large deserts developed progressively in the central Asia. However, the key factors causing the drying in mid-Asia remain inconclusive. Here, we analyzed the relationship among precipitation, water vapor transportation in Tarim River Basin (TRB) and Multiple Atmospheric Circulation (MAC) to explore the mechanism of MAC driving the drying in TRB, through comparing MAC between abundant and scarce precipitation years. We found that Westerly Circulation (WC) and Asian Summer Monsoon (ASM) are likely to promote the precipitation respectively. Whereas, they not only have their own influence but also restrict each other and facilitate the forming of peculiar water vapor transport channel for TRB, which is probably to restrain the precipitation and its distribution pattern and accelerate the drying in this region. Our results enrich the findings on mechanisms of wet places becoming wetter while dry areas getting drier under the global warming.

The Future of Drought in the Southeastern U.S.: Projections from downscaled CMIP5 models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keellings, D.; Engstrom, J.

2017-12-01

The Southeastern U.S. has been repeatedly impacted by severe droughts that have affected the environment and economy of the region. In this study the ability of 32 downscaled CMIP5 models, bias corrected using localized constructed analogs (LOCA), to simulate historical observations of dry spells from 1950-2005 are assessed using Perkins skill scores and significance tests. The models generally simulate the distribution of dry days well but there are significant differences between the ability of the best and worst performing models, particularly when it comes to the upper tail of the distribution. The best and worst performing models are then projected through 2099, using RCP 4.5 and 8.5, and estimates of 20 year return periods are compared. Only the higher skill models provide a good estimate of extreme dry spell lengths with simulations of 20 year return values within ± 5 days of observed values across the region. Projected return values differ by model grouping, but all models exhibit significant increases.

Primary Sjögren syndrome that initially presented with repeated hypergammaglobulinemic purpura after prolonged sitting: A case report.

PubMed

Zhou, Zhihua; Jiang, Weiqiang; Wang, Ming; Liu, Yongyuan; Zhang, Wei; Huang, Manping; Liang, Donghui

2017-12-01

Purpura is a common dermatologic manifestation in Sjögren syndrome (SS). When a patient presents with sicca symptoms, the diagnosis of SS is not difficult. Here, we reported a case of a 52-year-old Chinese woman who initially presented with nonpalpable purpura on both lower extremities, and these lesions had developed soon after prolonged sitting. In the past 2 years, she had repeated cutaneous nonpalpable purpura 4 times. She had no sicca symptoms, dry eyes, or dry mouth. Combining the laboratory findings, Schirmer test, and labial gland biopsy, primary SS was confirmed. The patient was placed on a trial of hydroxychloroquine (200 mg once daily). The purpura on both lower extremities had faded at the sixth day after onset and at the third day after hydroxychloroquine treatment. These case was not easy to diagnosis primary SS because she had no sicca symptoms. A patient with primary SS who initially presented with recurrent purpura associated with prolonged sitting. Prolonged sitting had been a possible aggravating factor for the cutaneous purpura of this patient with primary SS. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc. All rights reserved.

Primary Sjögren syndrome that initially presented with repeated hypergammaglobulinemic purpura after prolonged sitting

PubMed Central

Zhou, Zhihua; Jiang, Weiqiang; Wang, Ming; Liu, Yongyuan; Zhang, Wei; Huang, Manping; Liang, Donghui

2017-01-01

Abstract Rationale: Purpura is a common dermatologic manifestation in Sjögren syndrome (SS). When a patient presents with sicca symptoms, the diagnosis of SS is not difficult. Patient concerns: Here, we reported a case of a 52-year-old Chinese woman who initially presented with nonpalpable purpura on both lower extremities, and these lesions had developed soon after prolonged sitting. In the past 2 years, she had repeated cutaneous nonpalpable purpura 4 times. She had no sicca symptoms, dry eyes, or dry mouth. Diagnoses: Combining the laboratory findings, Schirmer test, and labial gland biopsy, primary SS was confirmed. Interventions: The patient was placed on a trial of hydroxychloroquine (200 mg once daily). Outcomes: The purpura on both lower extremities had faded at the sixth day after onset and at the third day after hydroxychloroquine treatment. Lessons: These case was not easy to diagnosis primary SS because she had no sicca symptoms. A patient with primary SS who initially presented with recurrent purpura associated with prolonged sitting. Prolonged sitting had been a possible aggravating factor for the cutaneous purpura of this patient with primary SS. PMID:29390329

Persistence Characteristics of Australian Rainfall Anomalies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Simmonds, Ian; Hope, Pandora

1997-05-01

Using 79 years (1913-1991) of Australian monthly precipitation data we examined the nature of the persistence of rainfall anomalies. Analyses were performed for four climate regions covering the country, as well as for the entire Australian continent. We show that rainfall over these regions has high temporal variability and that annual rainfall amounts over all five sectors vary in phase and are, with the exception of the north-west region, significantly correlated with the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). These relationships were particularly strong during the spring season.It is demonstrated that Australian rainfall exhibits statistically significant persistence on monthly, seasonal, and (to a limited extent) annual time-scales, up to lags of 3 months and one season and 1 year. The persistence showed strong seasonal dependence, with each of the five regions showing memory out to 4 or 5 months from winter and spring. Many aspects of climate in the Australasian region are known to have undergone considerable changes about 1950. We show this to be true for persistence also; its characteristics identified for the entire record were present during the 1951--1980 period, but virtually disappeared in the previous 30-year period.Much of the seasonal distribution of rainfall persistence on monthly time-scales, particularly in the east, is due to the influence of the SOI. However, most of the persistence identified in winter and spring in the north-west is independent of the ENSO phenomenon.Rainfall anomalies following extreme dry and wet months, seasons and years (lowest and highest two deciles) persisted more than would be expected by chance. For monthly extreme events this was more marked in the winter semester for the wet events, except in the south-east region. In general, less persistence was found for the extreme seasons. Although the persistence of dry years was less than would have been expected by chance, the wet years appear to display persistence.

Coping with a challenging environment

PubMed Central

Gesquiere, Laurence R.; Khan, Memuna; Shek, Lili; Wango, Tim L.; Wango, Emmanuel O.; Alberts, Susan C.; Altmann, Jeanne

2008-01-01

Environmental stressors impact physiology and behavior in many species of animals. These effects are partly mediated through changing concentrations of glucocorticoids, which also vary with reproductive state and social conditions. Prior research has focused largely on seasonal breeders, but the close temporal linkage between season and reproductive state in these species hinders ability to disentangle environmental effects from those of the animal’s reproductive status. Here we assessed the effects of environmental challenges on the fecal glucocorticoid (fGC) levels of non-seasonal breeders, female baboons (Papio cynocephalus) of Amboseli, Kenya. Amboseli is characterized by a long dry season, during which food and water become scarce, and by extreme temperatures above 40°C in the shade during some months of the year. We found that after accounting for female reproductive status and individual variability, females exhibited higher fGC levels during the dry season than during the wet season. Further, during the wet season, fGC levels were higher in months of high average daily maximum temperatures. During the dry season, fGC levels were elevated both in hotter months and in months during which the baboons spent a relatively high proportion of time feeding. In spite of these stressors, female baboons reproduce during all months of the year in Amboseli, unlike most other mammals in this environment. This may be attributable to their extreme adaptability, specifically their diversified diet, and their ability to modify their behavior, including their activity profiles. PMID:18514196

Interannual variability in dissolved inorganic nutrients in northern San Francisco Bay estuary

USGS Publications Warehouse

Peterson, D.H.; Smith, R.E.; Hager, S.W.; Harmon, D.D.; Herndon, R.E.; Schemel, L.E.

1985-01-01

Nearly two decades of seasonal dissolved inorganic nutrient-salinity distributions in northern San Francisco Bay estuary (1960-1980) illustrate interannual variations in effects of river flow (a nutrient source) and phytoplankton productivity (a nutrient sink). During winter, nutrient sources dominate the nutrient-salinity distribution patterns (nutrients are at or exceed conservative mixing concentrations). During summer, however, the sources and sinks are in close competition. In summers of wet years, the effects of increased river flow often dominate the nutrient distributions (nutrients are at or less than conservative mixing concentrations), whereas in summers of dry years, phytoplankton productivity dominates (the very dry years 1976-1977 were an exception for reasons not yet clearly known). Such source/sink effects also vary with chemical species. During summer the control of phytoplankton on nutrient distributions is apparently strongest for ammonium, less so for nitrate and silica, and is the least for phosphate. Furthermore, the strength of the silica sink (diatom productivity) is at a maximum at intermediate river flows. This relation, which is in agreement with other studies based on phytoplankton abundance and enumeration, is significant to the extent that diatoms are an important food source for herbivores. The balance or lack of balance between nutrient sources and sinks varies from one estuary to another just as it can from one year to another within the same estuary. At one extreme, in some estuaries river flow dominates the estuarine dissolved inorganic nutrient distributions throughout most of the year. At the other extreme, phytoplankton productivity dominates. In northern San Francisco Bay, for example, the phytoplankton nutrient sink is not as strong as in less turbid estuaries. In this estuary, however, river effects, which produce or are associated with near-conservative nutrient distributions, are strong even at flows less than mean-annual flow. Thus, northern San Francisco Bay appears to be an estuary in between the two extremes and is shifted closer to one extreme or the other depending on interannual variations in river flow. ?? 1985 Dr W. Junk Publishers.

The impact of anthropogenic land use and land cover change on regional climate extremes.

PubMed

Findell, Kirsten L; Berg, Alexis; Gentine, Pierre; Krasting, John P; Lintner, Benjamin R; Malyshev, Sergey; Santanello, Joseph A; Shevliakova, Elena

2017-10-20

Land surface processes modulate the severity of heat waves, droughts, and other extreme events. However, models show contrasting effects of land surface changes on extreme temperatures. Here, we use an earth system model from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory to investigate regional impacts of land use and land cover change on combined extremes of temperature and humidity, namely aridity and moist enthalpy, quantities central to human physiological experience of near-surface climate. The model's near-surface temperature response to deforestation is consistent with recent observations, and conversion of mid-latitude natural forests to cropland and pastures is accompanied by an increase in the occurrence of hot-dry summers from once-in-a-decade to every 2-3 years. In the tropics, long time-scale oceanic variability precludes determination of how much of a small, but significant, increase in moist enthalpy throughout the year stems from the model's novel representation of historical patterns of wood harvesting, shifting cultivation, and regrowth of secondary vegetation and how much is forced by internal variability within the tropical oceans.

Oak Forest Responses to Episodic-Seasonal-Drought, Chronic Multi-year Precipitation Change and Acute Drought Manipulations in a Region With Deep Soils and High Precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hanson, Paul J.; Wullschleger, Stan D.; Todd, Donald E.; Auge, Robert M.; Froberg, Mats; Johnson, Dale W.

2010-05-01

Implications of episodic-seasonal drought (extremely dry late summers), chronic multi-year precipitation manipulations (±33 percent over 12 years) and acute drought (-100 percent over 3 years) were evaluated for the response of vegetation and biogeochemical cycles for an upland-oak forest. The Quercus-Acer forest is located in eastern Tennessee on deep acidic soils with mean annual temperatures of 14.2 °C and abundant precipitation (1352 mm y-1). The multi-year observations and chronic manipulations were conducted from 1993 through 2005 using understory throughfall collection troughs and redistribution gutters and pipes. Acute manipulations of dominant canopy trees (Quercus prinus; Liriodendron tulipifera) were conducted from 2003 through 2005 using full understory tents. Regional and severe late-summer droughts were produced reduced stand water use and photosynthetic carbon gain as expected. Likewise, seedlings and saplings exhibited reduced survival and cumulative growth reductions. Conversely, multi-year chronic increases or decreases in precipitation and associated soil water deficits did not reduce large tree basal area growth for the tree species present. The resilience of canopy trees to chronic-change was the result of a disconnect between carbon allocation to tree growth (an early-season phenomenon) and late-season drought occurrence. Acute precipitation exclusion from the largest canopy trees also produced limited physiological responses and minimal cumulative growth reductions. Lateral root water sources were removed through trenching and could not explain the lack of response to extreme soil drying. Therefore, deep rooting the primary mechanism for large-tree resilience to severe drought. Extensive trench-based assessments of rooting depth suggested that ‘deep' water supplies were being obtained from limited numbers of deep fine roots. Observations of carbon stocks in organic horizons demonstrated accumulation with precipitation reductions and drying, but no change in mineral soil carbon pools attributable to changing precipitation. Measured changes in nitrogen and other element pools suggested that long term immobilization of elements with chronic drying would lead to reduced growth, but that deep rooting access to the key base cations would moderate such effects by providing a source of minerals to be cycled in near surface soils. Cumulative changes in canopy foliar production were evident over time showing sustained or even increased production with chronic drying. This unexpected response is hypothesized to result from the retention of nutrients in highly-rooted surface horizons made available for plant uptake during spring mineralization.

Microbial ecology of extreme environments: Antarctic yeasts and growth in substrate-limited habitats

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vishniac, H. S.

1985-01-01

The high, dry valleys of the Ross Desert of Antarctic, characterized by extremely low temperatures, aridity and a depauperate biota, are used as an analog of the postulated extreme climates of other planetary bodies of the Solar System to test the hypothesis that if life could be supported by Ross, it might be possible where similar conditions prevail. The previously considered sterility of the Ross Desert soil ecosystem has yielded up an indigenous yeast, Cryptoccus vishniacci, which is able to resist the extremes of cold, wet and dry freezing, and long arid periods, while making minimal nutritional demands on the soil.

Dependence of drivers affects risks associated with compound events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zscheischler, Jakob; Seneviratne, Sonia I.

2017-04-01

Compound climate extremes are receiving increasing attention because of their disproportionate impacts on humans and ecosystems. Risks assessments, however, generally focus on univariate statistics even when multiple stressors are considered. Concurrent extreme droughts and heatwaves have been observed to cause a suite of extreme impacts on natural and human systems alike. For example, they can substantially affect vegetation health, prompting tree mortality, and thereby facilitating insect outbreaks and fires. In addition, hot droughts have the potential to trigger and intensify fires and can cause severe economical damage. By promoting disease spread, extremely hot and dry conditions also strongly affect human health. We analyse the co-occurrence of dry and hot summers and show that these are strongly correlated for many regions, inducing a much higher frequency of concurrent hot and dry summers than what would be assumed from the independent combination of the univariate statistics. Our results demonstrate how the dependence structure between variables affects the occurrence frequency of multivariate extremes. Assessments based on univariate statistics can thus strongly underestimate risks associated with given extremes, if impacts depend on multiple (dependent) variables. We conclude that a multivariate perspective is necessary in order to appropriately assess changes in climate extremes and their impacts, and to design adaptation strategies.

Modeling extreme drought impacts on terrestrial ecosystems when thresholds are exceeded

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holm, J. A.; Rammig, A.; Smith, B.; Medvigy, D.; Lichstein, J. W.; Dukes, J. S.; Allen, C. D.; Beier, C.; Larsen, K. S.; Ficken, C. D.; Pockman, W.; Anderegg, W.; Luo, Y.

2016-12-01

Recent IPCC Assessment Reports suggest that with predicted climate changes future precipitation- and heat-related extreme events are becoming stronger and more frequent with potential for prolonged droughts. To prepare for these changes and their impacts, we need to develop a better understanding of terrestrial ecosystem responses to extreme drought events. In particular, we focus here on large-extent and long-lasting extreme drought events with noticeable impacts on the functioning of forested ecosystems. While most of ecosystem manipulative experiments have been motivated by ongoing and predicted climate change, the majority only applied relatively moderate droughts, not addressing the "very" extreme tail of these scenarios, i.e. "extreme extremes (EEs)". We explore the response of forest ecosystems to EEs using two demographic-based dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) (i.e. ED2, LPJ-GUESS) in which the abundances of different plant functional types, as well as tree size- and age-class structure, are emergent properties of resource competition. We evaluate the model's capabilities to represent extreme drought scenarios (i.e., 50% and 90% reduction in precipitation for 1-year, 2-year, and 4-year drought scenarios) at two dry forested sites: Palo Verde, Costa Rica (i.e. tropical) and EucFACE, Australia (i.e. temperate). Through the DGVM modeling outcomes we determine the following five testable hypotheses for future experiments: 1) EEs cannot be extrapolated from mild extremes due to plant plasticity and functional composition. 2) Response to EEs depends on functional diversity, trait combinations, and phenology, such that both models predicted even after 100 years plant biomass did not recover. 3) Mortality from drought reduces the pressure on resources and prevents further damage by subsequent years of drought. 4) Early successional stands are more vulnerable to extreme droughts while older stand are more resilient. 5) Elevated atmospheric CO2 alleviates impacts of extreme droughts while increased temperature exacerbates mortality. This study highlighted a number of questions about our current understanding of EEs and their corresponding thresholds and tipping points, and provides an analysis of confidence in model representation and accuracy of processes related to EEs.

20 years of mass balances on the Piloto glacier, Las Cuevas river basin, Mendoza, Argentina

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leiva, J. C.; Cabrera, G. A.; Lenzano, L. E.

2007-10-01

Climatic changes of the 20th century have altered the water cycle in the Andean basins of central Argentina. The most visible change is seen in the mountain glaciers, with loss of part of their mass due to decreasing thickness and a substantial recession in the last 100 years. This paper briefly describes the results of glacier mass balance research since 1979 in the Piloto Glacier at the Cajón del Rubio, in the headwaters of Las Cuevas River, presenting new results for the period 1997-2003. Very large interannual variability of net annual specific balance is evident, due largely to variations in winter snow accumulation, with a maximum net annual value of + 151 cm w.e. and a minimum value of - 230 cm w.e. Wet El Niño years are normally associated with positive net annual balances, while dry La Niña years generally result in negative balances. Within the 24-year period, 67% of the years show negative net annual specific balances, with a cumulative mass balance loss of - 10.50 m water equivalent (w.e.). Except for exceptions normally related to El Niño events, a general decreasing trend of winter snow accumulation is evident in the record, particularly after 1992, which has a strong effect in the overall negative mass balance values. The glacier contribution to Las Cuevas River runoff is analysed based on the Punta de Vacas River gauge station for a hypothetical year without snow precipitation (YWSP), when the snowmelt component is zero. Extremely dry years similar to a YWSP have occurred in 1968-1969, 1969-1970 and 1996-1997. The Punta de Vacas gauge station is located 62 km downstream from Piloto Glacier, and the basin contains 3.0% of uncovered glacier ice and 3.7% of debris-covered ice. The total glacier contribution to Las Cuevas River discharge is calculated as 82 ± 8% during extremely dry years. If glacier wastage continues at the present trend as observed during the last 2 decades, it will severely affect the water resources in the arid central Andes of Argentina.

400 Years of summer hydroclimate from stable isotopes in Iberian trees

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andreu-Hayles, Laia; Ummenhofer, Caroline C.; Barriendos, Mariano; Schleser, Gerhard H.; Helle, Gerhard; Leuenberger, Markus; Gutiérrez, Emilia; Cook, Edward R.

2017-07-01

Tree rings are natural archives that annually record distinct types of past climate variability depending on the parameters measured. Here, we use ring-width and stable isotopes in cellulose of trees from the northwestern Iberian Peninsula (IP) to understand regional summer hydroclimate over the last 400 years and the associated atmospheric patterns. Correlations between tree rings and climate data demonstrate that isotope signatures in the targeted Iberian pine forests are very sensitive to water availability during the summer period, and are mainly controlled by stomatal conductance. Non-linear methods based on extreme events analysis allow for capturing distinct seasonal climatic variability recorded by tree-ring parameters and asymmetric signals of the associated atmospheric features. Moreover, years with extreme high (low) values in the tree-ring records were characterised by coherent large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns with reduced (enhanced) moisture transport onto the northwestern IP. These analyses of extremes revealed that high/low proxy values do not necessarily correspond to mirror images in the atmospheric anomaly patterns, suggesting different drivers of these patterns and the corresponding signature recorded in the proxies. Regional hydroclimate features across the broader IP and western Europe during extreme wet/dry summers detected by the northwestern IP trees compare favourably to independent multicentury sea level pressure and drought reconstructions for Europe. Historical records also validate our findings that attribute non-linear moisture signals recorded by extreme tree-ring values to distinct large-scale atmospheric patterns and allow for 400-year reconstructions of the frequency of occurrence of extreme conditions in late spring and summer hydroclimate.

FOREST ECOLOGY. Pervasive drought legacies in forest ecosystems and their implications for carbon cycle models.

PubMed

Anderegg, W R L; Schwalm, C; Biondi, F; Camarero, J J; Koch, G; Litvak, M; Ogle, K; Shaw, J D; Shevliakova, E; Williams, A P; Wolf, A; Ziaco, E; Pacala, S

2015-07-31

The impacts of climate extremes on terrestrial ecosystems are poorly understood but important for predicting carbon cycle feedbacks to climate change. Coupled climate-carbon cycle models typically assume that vegetation recovery from extreme drought is immediate and complete, which conflicts with the understanding of basic plant physiology. We examined the recovery of stem growth in trees after severe drought at 1338 forest sites across the globe, comprising 49,339 site-years, and compared the results with simulated recovery in climate-vegetation models. We found pervasive and substantial "legacy effects" of reduced growth and incomplete recovery for 1 to 4 years after severe drought. Legacy effects were most prevalent in dry ecosystems, among Pinaceae, and among species with low hydraulic safety margins. In contrast, limited or no legacy effects after drought were simulated by current climate-vegetation models. Our results highlight hysteresis in ecosystem-level carbon cycling and delayed recovery from climate extremes. Copyright © 2015, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Ice fishing by wintering Bald Eagles in Arizona

Treesearch

Teryl G. Grubb; Roy G. Lopez

1997-01-01

Northern Arizona winters vary within and between years with occasional heavy snows (up to 0.6 m) and extreme cold (overnight lows -18 to -29°C) interspersed with dry periods, mild temperatures (daytime highs reaching 10°C), and general loss of snow cover at all but highest elevations. Lakes in the area may freeze and thaw partially or totally several times during a...

Water balance analysis of the Morava River floodplain in the Kostice-Lanžhot transect using the WBCM-7 model.

PubMed

Kovář, Pavel; Heřmanovská, Darina; Hadaš, Pavel; Hrabalíková, Michaela; Pešková, Jitka

2016-02-01

The study area of the Morava River floodplain is situated between the rivers Morava and Kyjovka in the reach from Hodonín to Lanžhot. This experimental area was chosen because during the last 30 years, there has been a serious problem with the frequent occurrence of hydrological extremes, such as floods and droughts. Dry seasons have a very negative impact on the floodplain forest and have been caused mainly by regulation of the Morava River channel in the 1970s. Since flooding in the catastrophic year 1977, a part of this area has served as a polder for flood impact mitigation of the urbanised area of the town of Lanžhot. Management and farming practices have been heavily affected by the enormous economic and ecological damage due to long-term flooding of agricultural land. The purpose of this study is to assess the extent to which the precipitation in the growing season of the dry years 2003 and 2011 was deficient, in comparison with the normal year 2009, through a study of the actual evapotranspiration caused by the significant drought in the Morava floodplain. A similar but converse situation in the wet year 2010 was also analysed, with the aim to show the differences in the components of the water balance equation in the growing seasons of all the extreme years tested here. The daily data from the Kostice climatological station were processed using the WBCM-7 model, where the input parameters were calibrated by the fluctuation of the groundwater table in the control borehole.

Statistical distributions of extreme dry spell in Peninsular Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zin, Wan Zawiah Wan; Jemain, Abdul Aziz

2010-11-01

Statistical distributions of annual extreme (AE) series and partial duration (PD) series for dry-spell event are analyzed for a database of daily rainfall records of 50 rain-gauge stations in Peninsular Malaysia, with recording period extending from 1975 to 2004. The three-parameter generalized extreme value (GEV) and generalized Pareto (GP) distributions are considered to model both series. In both cases, the parameters of these two distributions are fitted by means of the L-moments method, which provides a robust estimation of them. The goodness-of-fit (GOF) between empirical data and theoretical distributions are then evaluated by means of the L-moment ratio diagram and several goodness-of-fit tests for each of the 50 stations. It is found that for the majority of stations, the AE and PD series are well fitted by the GEV and GP models, respectively. Based on the models that have been identified, we can reasonably predict the risks associated with extreme dry spells for various return periods.

Beneficial effects of restoration practices can be thwarted by climate extremes.

PubMed

Maccherini, Simona; Bacaro, Giovanni; Marignani, Michela

2018-06-01

The impacts of climate extremes on species, communities and ecosystems have become critical concerns to science and society. Under a changing climate, how restoration outcomes are affected by extreme climate variables is a largely unknown topic. We analyzed the effects of experimental factors (grazing and sowing of native species), extreme climate events (intense precipitation and extreme temperatures indexes) and their combination on the restoration progress of a dry, calcareous grassland in Tuscany (Italy) with a 1 year before/15 years continuous annual monitoring after, control/impact (BACI) experiment. Grazing had a beneficial effect on the diversity of the grassland, while sowing had a limited impact. The climatic index that most affected the entire plant community composition was the number of very heavy precipitation days. The interaction of grazing and extreme climatic indexes had a significant detrimental effect on restoration outcomes, increasing the cover of synanthropic and Cosmopolitan-Subcosmopolitan generalist species and decreasing the cover of more valuable species such endemic species. In the richest grazed plots, species richness showed a lower sensitivity to the average precipitation per wet day but in grazed site, restoration outcomes can be negatively influenced by the intensification of precipitation and temperature extremes. In a context of progressive tropicalization of the Mediterranean area, to assist managers setting achievable restoration goals, restoration practitioners should consider that climate extremes might interfere with the beneficial effects of restoration practices. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Evidence of Teleconnections between the Peruvian central Andes and Northeast Brazil during extreme rainfall events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sulca, J. C.; Vuille, M. F.; Silva, F. Y.; Takahashi, K.

2013-12-01

Knowledge about changes in regional circulation and physical processes associated with extreme rainfall events in South America is limited. Here we investigate such events over the Mantaro basin (MB) located at (10°S-13°S; 73°W-76°W) in the central Peruvian Andes and Northeastern Brazil (NEB), located at (9°S-15°S; 39°W-46°W). Occasional dry and wet spells can be observed in both areas during the austral summer season. The main goal of this study is to investigate potential teleconnections between extreme rainfall events in MB and NEB during austral summer. We define wet (dry) spells as periods that last for at least 3 (5) consecutive days with rainfall above (below) the 70 (30) percentile. To identify the dates of ocurrence of these events, we used daily accumulated rainfall data from 14 climate stations located in the Mantaro basin for the period 1965 to 2002. In NEB we defined a rainfall index which is based on average daily gridded rainfall data within the region for the same period. Dry (wet spells) in the MB are associated with positive (negative) OLR anomalies which extend over much of the tropical Andes, indicating the large-scale nature of these events. At 200 hPa anomalous easterly (westerly) zonal winds aloft accompany wet (dry) spells. Composite anomalies of dry spells in MB reveal significant contemporaneous precipitation anomalies of the opposite sign over NEB, which suggest that intraseasonal precipitation variability over the two regions may be dynamically linked. Indeed upper-tropospheric circulation anomalies over the central Andes extend across South America and appear to be tied to an adjustment in the Bolivian High-Nordeste Low system. Dry (wet) spells in NEB are equally associated with a large-scale pattern of positive (negative) OLR anomalies; however, there are no related significant OLR anomalies over the MB during these events. Dry (wet) spells are associated with robust patterns of anomalous wind fields at both low and upper levels, caused by a changing position of the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ) toward the southwest (northeast). But, there is no coincident robust pattern of wind anomalies over the Mantaro Basin. In conclusion, dry spells in the Mantaro basin appear to be dynamically linked to wet spells in NEB, since 62% of all dry events in MB coincide with wet spells in NEB (35% of all events). The dynamical link explaining the observed teleconnection and the resulting dipole pattern between precipitation extremes in the MB and NEB region, respectively, appears to be related to intraseasonal variability in the Bolivian High - Nordeste Low system. Only 26.53% of all wet spells, however, coincide with dry spells in NEB (12.15% of all events). While circulation anomalies that affect precipitation extremes in the MB have the potential to also affect the precipitation characteristics in NEB, the opposite is not the case. Extreme events in NEB are primarily affected by NE-SW displacement in the SACZ, a mechanism that is of little relevance for precipitation extremes in the MB.

Mesoscale disturbance and ecological response to decadal climatic variability in the American Southwest

USGS Publications Warehouse

Swetnam, T.W.; Betancourt, J.L.

1998-01-01

Ecological responses to climatic variability in the Southwest include regionally synchronized fires, insect outbreaks, and pulses in tree demography (births and deaths). Multicentury, tree-ring reconstructions of drought, disturbance history, and tree demography reveal climatic effects across scales, from annual to decadal, and from local (<102 km2) to mesoscale (104-106 km2). Climate-disturbance relations are more variable and complex than previously assumed. During the past three centuries, mesoscale outbreaks of the western spruce budworm (Choristoneura occidentalis) were associated with wet, not dry episodes, contrary to conventional wisdom. Regional fires occur during extreme droughts but, in some ecosystems, antecedent wet conditions play a secondary role by regulating accumulation of fuels. Interdecadal changes in fire-climate associations parallel other evidence for shifts in the frequency or amplitude of the Southern Oscillation (SO) during the past three centuries. High interannual, fire-climate correlations (r = 0.7 to 0.9) during specific decades (i.e., circa 1740-80 and 1830-60) reflect periods of high amplitude in the SO and rapid switching from extreme wet to dry years in the Southwest, thereby entraining fire occurrence across the region. Weak correlations from 1780 to 1830 correspond with a decrease in SO frequency or amplitude inferred from independent tree-ring width, ice core, and coral isotope reconstructions. Episodic dry and wet episodes have altered age structures and species composition of woodland and conifer forests. The scarcity of old, living conifers established before circa 1600 suggests that the extreme drought of 1575-95 had pervasive effects on tree populations. The most extreme drought of the past 400 years occurred in the mid-twentieth century (1942-57). This drought resulted in broadscale plant dieoffs in shrublands, woodlands, and forests and accelerated shrub invasion of grasslands. Drought conditions were broken by the post-1976 shift to the negative SO phase and wetter cool seasons in the Southwest. The post-1976 period shows up as an unprecedented surge in tree-ring growth within millennia-length chronologies. This unusual episode may have produced a pulse in tree recruitment and improved rangeland conditions (e.g., higher grass production), though additional study is needed to disentangle the interacting roles of land use and climate. The 1950s drought and the post-1976 wet period and their aftermaths offer natural experiments to study long-term ecosystem response to interdecadal climate variability.Ecological responses to climatic variability in the Southwest include regionally synchronized fires, insect outbreaks, and pulses in tree demography (births and deaths). Multicentury, tree-ring reconstructions of drought, disturbance history, and tree demography reveal climatic effects across scales, from annual to decadal, and from local (<102 km2) to mesoscale (104-106 km2). Climate-disturbance relations are more variable and complex than previously assumed. During the past three centuries, mesoscale outbreaks of the western spruce budworm (Choristoneura occidentalis) were associated with wet, not dry episodes, contrary to conventional wisdom. Regional fires occur during extreme droughts but, in some ecosystems, antecedent wet conditions play a secondary role by regulating accumulation of fuels. Interdecadal changes in fire-climate associations parallel other evidence for shifts in the frequency or amplitude of the Southern Oscillation (SO) during the past three centuries. High interannual, fire-climate correlations (r = 0.7 to 0.9) during specific decades (i.e., circa 1740-80 and 1830-60) reflect periods of high amplitude in the SO and rapid switching from extreme wet to dry years in the Southwest, thereby entraining fire occurrence across the region. Weak correlations from 1780 to 1830 correspond with a decrease in SO frequency or amplitude inferred from independent tree-ring width, ic

The effect of seasons on behaviour during milking in buffaloes ( Bos bubalis)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gangwar, P. C.

1982-06-01

An investigation on behaviour during milking involving 200 buffaloes was carried out to study the effect of climate on milking behaviour for a period of four years. The results obtained were: (1) In extremely docile animals (temperament score I) the mean distribution was least (33.5) in hot-dry summer as compared to winter (39.2) and hot-humid summer. (2) The number of buffaloes milked after oxytocin injections was maximum (11.1%) during the hot-dry summer against other seasons for the temperament score I over temperament scores III and IV, where all buffaloes were milked with oxytocin injections. (3) The mean flow rate was least in hot-dry summer in each temperament score. (4) Milking time was higher in all the temperament scored buffaloes during the hot-dry summer than during the other seasons. It is concluded that as environmental temperature increases, there occurs an increase in thermal stress, the milking behaviour changes and animals become more hostile and excited which leads to a decrease in milk production.

Dry cupping for plantar fasciitis: a randomized controlled trial.

PubMed

Ge, Weiqing; Leson, Chelsea; Vukovic, Corey

2017-05-01

[Purpose] The purpose of this study was to determine the effects of dry cupping on pain and function of patients with plantar fasciitis. [Subjects and Methods] Twenty-nine subjects (age 15 to 59 years old, 20 females and 9 males), randomly assigned into the two groups (dry cupping therapy and electrical stimulation therapy groups), participated in this study. The research design was a randomized controlled trial (RCT). Treatments were provided to the subjects twice a week for 4 weeks. Outcome measurements included the Visual Analogue Pain Scale (VAS) (at rest, first in the morning, and with activities), the Foot and Ankle Ability Measure (FAAM), the Lower Extremity Functional Scale (LEFS), as well as the pressure pain threshold. [Results]The data indicated that both dry cupping therapy and electrical stimulation therapy could reduce pain and increase function significantly in the population tested, as all the 95% Confidence Intervals (CIs) did not include 0 except for the pressure pain threshold. There was no significant difference between the dry cupping therapy and electrical stimulation groups in all the outcome measurements. [Conclusion] These results support that both dry cupping therapy and electrical stimulation therapy could reduce pain and increase function in the population tested.

Dry cupping for plantar fasciitis: a randomized controlled trial

PubMed Central

Ge, Weiqing; Leson, Chelsea; Vukovic, Corey

2017-01-01

[Purpose] The purpose of this study was to determine the effects of dry cupping on pain and function of patients with plantar fasciitis. [Subjects and Methods] Twenty-nine subjects (age 15 to 59 years old, 20 females and 9 males), randomly assigned into the two groups (dry cupping therapy and electrical stimulation therapy groups), participated in this study. The research design was a randomized controlled trial (RCT). Treatments were provided to the subjects twice a week for 4 weeks. Outcome measurements included the Visual Analogue Pain Scale (VAS) (at rest, first in the morning, and with activities), the Foot and Ankle Ability Measure (FAAM), the Lower Extremity Functional Scale (LEFS), as well as the pressure pain threshold. [Results]The data indicated that both dry cupping therapy and electrical stimulation therapy could reduce pain and increase function significantly in the population tested, as all the 95% Confidence Intervals (CIs) did not include 0 except for the pressure pain threshold. There was no significant difference between the dry cupping therapy and electrical stimulation groups in all the outcome measurements. [Conclusion] These results support that both dry cupping therapy and electrical stimulation therapy could reduce pain and increase function in the population tested. PMID:28603360

Impact of climate change on hydrological extremes in Dobrogea region, Romania

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buta, Constantin; Maftei, Carmen

2015-04-01

Over time, Dobrogea territory has faced with fluctuations more or less severe in terms of basic parameters such as temperature, precipitations and annual discharges of rivers. It is highlighted the trend of aridity in the area, because of the fact that Dobrogea receives small amounts of water, ranging between 200-450 mm/year, with annual average temperatures lying around and above the average of 11°C. This fact is also proceeding from the many studies realized by other researchers. For this area there are also characteristic torrents (form of rainfall during the summer), the storms and floods accompanying these torrents of water on the narrow valleys, often intermittent, sometimes causing significant damage and even fatalities. Torrential rainfalls and flash floods are sometimes very strong and produce catastrophic damages, as happened at Constanta (in 2001), at Tulcea (in 13.07.2004 and in 29.08.2004), at Tuzla, Pantelimon, Agigea and others. At the opposite pole of the sporadic excess rainfall is drought, which is the largest meteorological phenomenon (both in time and in space) and the most obvious in Dobrogea climate. Drought represents the main argument of semi aridity of this region and the most visible image component which is observed by the inhabitants of this environment. Correlation and study of hydro-meteorological extremes is performed using indices that take into account meteorological and hydrological parameters such as precipitations, temperature, discharges of rivers etc. Hydro-meteorological indices used for this study are: Angot rainfall index; Peguy Climograms; de Martonne drought index; Thornthwaite index Moduli coefficients and Deciles. According to the studied indices, for the accomplishment of this present paper, we can say that Dobrogea is among the driest regions in the country. History of drought in Romania includes many dry years, of which are mentioned: 1894, 1888, 1904, 1918, 1934, 1945, but the droughts years with greater durations, more extensive in territory and severe, were those of 1946 and 2000, which affected Dobrogea region. According to this study and analysis carried out for the period 1965-2005 (regarding of temperatures and precipitations) at eight stations in the Dobrogea region, and for the period 1965 to 2011 (regarding the discharges of rivers) there can be mentioned several dry years, but between them some of them have proved extremely dry, such as the range of years 1973 - 1976, 1980 - 1983, 1986 - 1987 and 2000, and the years with risk by excess of water were: 1966, 1969, 1988, 1997, 2004 and 2005.

Response of African Elephants (Loxodonta africana) to Seasonal Changes in Rainfall

PubMed Central

Garstang, Michael; Davis, Robert E.; Leggett, Keith; Frauenfeld, Oliver W.; Greco, Steven; Zipser, Edward; Peterson, Michael

2014-01-01

The factors that trigger sudden, seasonal movements of elephants are uncertain. We hypothesized that savannah elephant movements at the end of the dry season may be a response to their detection of distant thunderstorms. Nine elephants carrying Global Positioning System (GPS) receivers were tracked over seven years in the extremely dry and rugged region of northwestern Namibia. The transition date from dry to wet season conditions was determined annually from surface- and satellite-derived rainfall. The distance, location, and timing of rain events relative to the elephants were determined using the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) satellite precipitation observations. Behavioral Change Point Analysis (BCPA) was applied to four of these seven years demonstrating a response in movement of these elephants to intra- and inter-seasonal occurrences of rainfall. Statistically significant changes in movement were found prior to or near the time of onset of the wet season and before the occurrence of wet episodes within the dry season, although the characteristics of the movement changes are not consistent between elephants and years. Elephants in overlapping ranges, but following separate tracks, exhibited statistically valid non-random near-simultaneous changes in movements when rainfall was occurring more than 100 km from their location. While the environmental trigger that causes these excursions remains uncertain, rain-system generated infrasound, which can travel such distances and be detected by elephants, is a possible trigger for such changes in movement. PMID:25299514

Response of African elephants (Loxodonta africana) to seasonal changes in rainfall.

PubMed

Garstang, Michael; Davis, Robert E; Leggett, Keith; Frauenfeld, Oliver W; Greco, Steven; Zipser, Edward; Peterson, Michael

2014-01-01

The factors that trigger sudden, seasonal movements of elephants are uncertain. We hypothesized that savannah elephant movements at the end of the dry season may be a response to their detection of distant thunderstorms. Nine elephants carrying Global Positioning System (GPS) receivers were tracked over seven years in the extremely dry and rugged region of northwestern Namibia. The transition date from dry to wet season conditions was determined annually from surface- and satellite-derived rainfall. The distance, location, and timing of rain events relative to the elephants were determined using the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) satellite precipitation observations. Behavioral Change Point Analysis (BCPA) was applied to four of these seven years demonstrating a response in movement of these elephants to intra- and inter-seasonal occurrences of rainfall. Statistically significant changes in movement were found prior to or near the time of onset of the wet season and before the occurrence of wet episodes within the dry season, although the characteristics of the movement changes are not consistent between elephants and years. Elephants in overlapping ranges, but following separate tracks, exhibited statistically valid non-random near-simultaneous changes in movements when rainfall was occurring more than 100 km from their location. While the environmental trigger that causes these excursions remains uncertain, rain-system generated infrasound, which can travel such distances and be detected by elephants, is a possible trigger for such changes in movement.

Quantifying the Causes and Propogation of the 2015 Washington Wildfires

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Engel, R.; Marlier, M. E.; Lettenmaier, D. P.

2017-12-01

In the summer of 2015, Washington state experienced wildfires that burned over 450,000 ha, more than five times the average and more than three times the next-most severe fire season in the 30-year record. We examine the confluence of factors that led to the extreme fire season, and evaluate whether 2015 can be used as a predictor of possible future conditions that will be affected by climate warming. In previous work, we have found that 2015 was an extremely warm summer (nearly 1 degree C warmer than the previous year in the 30-year record) but was not particularly anomalous in terms of many other climatic indicators, including reconstructed soil moisture, the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), and the Canadian Fire Weather Index. However, according to the Dead Fuel Moisture (DFM), a drying index used by the US Forest Service, 2015 was an extreme year of record. The DFM relies on temperature, precipitation, and relative humidity to establish a daily equilibrium moisture content of dead material. We examine both Washington's 2015 fire season and the 30-year fire record with respect to climatology and other potential drivers of fire (e.g. forest health, ignition). Additionally, we explore the role of land cover with respect to fire propagation through the season. While too many potential causes of extreme fires exist to establish a concrete long-term relationship at such a fine scale, we find that the 2015 fire anomaly was at least partially climatically driven.

Extreme Weather Years Drive Episodic Acidification and Brownification in Lakes in the Northeast US: Implications for Long-term Shifts in Dissolved Organic Carbon, Water Clarity, and Thermal Structure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Strock, K.; Saros, J. E.

2017-12-01

Interannual climate variability is expected to increase over the next century, but the extent to which hydroclimatic variability influences biogeochemical processes is unclear. To determine the effects of extreme weather on surface water chemistry, a 30-year record of surface water geochemistry for 84 lakes in the northeastern U.S. was combined with landscape data and watershed-specific weather data. With these data, responses in sulfate and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations were characterized during extreme wet and extreme dry conditions. Episodic acidification during drought and episodic brownification (increased DOC) during wet years were detected broadly across the northeastern U.S. Episodic chemical response was linearly related to wetland coverage in lake watersheds only during extreme wet years. The results of a redundancy analysis suggest that topographic features also need to be considered and that the interplay between wetlands and their degree of connectivity to surface waters could be driving episodic acidification in this region. A subset of lakes located in Acadia National Park, Maine U.S.A. were studied to better understand the implications of regional increases of DOC in lakes. Water transparency declined across six study sites since 1995 as DOC increased. As clarity declined, some lakes experienced reduced epilimnion thickness. The degree to which transparency changed across the lakes was dependent on DOC concentration, with a larger decline in transparency occurring in clear water lakes than brown water lakes. The results presented here help to clarify the variability observed in long-term recovery from acidification and regional increases in DOC. Specifically, an increased frequency of extreme wet years may be contributing to a recent acceleration in the recovery of lake ecosystems from acidification; however, increased frequency of wet years may also lead to reduced water clarity and altered physical lake habitat. Clarifying the response of DOC, a pivotal regulator of aquatic ecosystems, to extreme weather events across gradients of landscape position and atmospheric deposition, is increasingly important for policy and management decisions as the frequency of extreme events continues to increase in this region.

Asymmetric Responses of Primary Productivity to Altered Precipitation Simulated by Land Surface Models across Three Long-term Grassland Sites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, D.; Ciais, P.; Viovy, N.; Knapp, A.; Wilcox, K.; Bahn, M.; Smith, M. D.; Ito, A.; Arneth, A.; Harper, A. B.; Ukkola, A.; Paschalis, A.; Poulter, B.; Peng, C.; Reick, C. H.; Hayes, D. J.; Ricciuto, D. M.; Reinthaler, D.; Chen, G.; Tian, H.; Helene, G.; Zscheischler, J.; Mao, J.; Ingrisch, J.; Nabel, J.; Pongratz, J.; Boysen, L.; Kautz, M.; Schmitt, M.; Krohn, M.; Zeng, N.; Meir, P.; Zhang, Q.; Zhu, Q.; Hasibeder, R.; Vicca, S.; Sippel, S.; Dangal, S. R. S.; Fatichi, S.; Sitch, S.; Shi, X.; Wang, Y.; Luo, Y.; Liu, Y.; Piao, S.

2017-12-01

Changes in precipitation variability including the occurrence of extreme events strongly influence plant growth in grasslands. Field measurements of aboveground net primary production (ANPP) in temperate grasslands suggest a positive asymmetric response with wet years resulting in ANPP gains larger than ANPP declines in dry years. Whether land surface models used for historical simulations and future projections of the coupled carbon-water system in grasslands are capable to simulate such non-symmetrical ANPP responses remains an important open research question. In this study, we evaluate the simulated responses of grassland primary productivity to altered precipitation with fourteen land surface models at the three sites of Colorado Shortgrass Steppe (SGS), Konza prairie (KNZ) and Stubai Valley meadow (STU) along a rainfall gradient from dry to wet. Our results suggest that: (i) Gross primary production (GPP), NPP, ANPP and belowground NPP (BNPP) show nonlinear response curves (concave-down) in all the models, but with different curvatures and mean values. In contrast across the sites, primary production increases and then saturates along increasing precipitation with a flattening at the wetter site. (ii) Slopes of spatial relationships between modeled primary production and precipitation are steeper than the temporal slopes (obtained from inter-annual variations). (iii) Asymmetric responses under nominal precipitation range with modeled inter-annual primary production show large uncertainties, and model-ensemble median generally suggests negative asymmetry (greater declines in dry years than increases in wet years) across the three sites. (iv) Primary production at the drier site is predicted to more sensitive to precipitation compared to wetter site, and median sensitivity consistently indicates greater negative impacts of reduced precipitation than positive effects of increased precipitation under extreme conditions. This study implies that most models overemphasize the drought effects or underestimate the watering impacts on primary production in the normal-state, with the direct consequence that carbon-water interactions need to be improved in future model generations with improved mechanistic representations.

Simulating the effect of climate extremes on groundwater flow through a lakebed

USGS Publications Warehouse

Virdi, Makhan L.; Lee, Terrie M.; Swancar, Amy; Niswonger, Richard G.

2012-01-01

Groundwater exchanges with lakes resulting from cyclical wet and dry climate extremes maintain lake levels in the environment in ways that are not well understood, in part because they remain difficult to simulate. To better understand the atypical groundwater interactions with lakes caused by climatic extremes, an original conceptual approach is introduced using MODFLOW-2005 and a kinematic-wave approximation to variably saturated flow that allows lake size and position in the basin to change while accurately representing the daily lake volume and three-dimensional variably saturated groundwater flow responses in the basin. Daily groundwater interactions are simulated for a calibrated lake basin in Florida over a decade that included historic wet and dry departures from the average rainfall. The divergent climate extremes subjected nearly 70% of the maximum lakebed area and 75% of the maximum shoreline perimeter to both groundwater inflow and lake leakage. About half of the lakebed area subject to flow reversals also went dry. A flow-through pattern present for 73% of the decade caused net leakage from the lake 80% of the time. Runoff from the saturated lake margin offset the groundwater deficit only about half of that time. A centripetal flow pattern present for 6% of the decade was important for maintaining the lake stage and generated 30% of all net groundwater inflow. Pumping effects superimposed on dry climate extremes induced the least frequent but most cautionary flow pattern with leakage from over 90% of the actual lakebed area.

Persistent multi-scale fluctuations shift European hydroclimate to its millennial boundaries.

PubMed

Markonis, Y; Hanel, M; Máca, P; Kyselý, J; Cook, E R

2018-05-02

In recent years, there has been growing concern about the effect of global warming on water resources, especially at regional and continental scales. The last IPCC report on extremes states that there is medium confidence about an increase on European drought frequency during twentieth century. Here we use the Old World Drought Atlas palaeoclimatic reconstruction to show that when Europe's hydroclimate is examined under a millennial, multi-scale perspective, a significant decrease in dryness can be observed since 1920 over most of central and northern Europe. On the contrary, in the south, drying conditions have prevailed, creating an intense north-to-south dipole. In both cases, hydroclimatic conditions have shifted to, and in some regions exceeded, their millennial boundaries, remaining at these extreme levels for the longest period of the 1000-year-long record.

400 years of summer hydroclimate from stable isotopes in Iberian trees

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andreu-Hayles, Laia; Ummenhofer, Caroline C.; Barriendos, Mariano; Schleser, Gerhard H.; Helle, Gerhard; Leuenberger, Markus; Gutierrez, Emilia; Cook, Edward R.

2017-04-01

Tree rings are natural archives that annually record distinct types of past climate variability depending on the parameters measured. Here, we use ring-width and stable isotopes in cellulose of trees from the northwestern Iberian Peninsula (IP) to understand regional summer hydroclimate over the last 400 years and the associated atmospheric patterns. Correlations between tree rings and climate data demonstrate that isotope signatures in the targeted Iberian pine forests are very sensitive to water availability during the summer period, and are mainly controlled by stomatal conductance. Non-linear methods based on extreme events analysis allow for capturing distinct seasonal climatic variability recorded by tree-ring parameters and asymmetric signals of the associated atmospheric features. Moreover, years with extreme high (low) values in the tree-ring records were characterised by coherent large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns with reduced (enhanced) moisture transport onto the northwestern IP. These analyses of extremes revealed that high/low proxy values do not necessarily correspond to mirror images in the atmospheric anomaly patterns, suggesting different drivers of these patterns and the corresponding signature recorded in the proxies. Regional hydroclimate features across the broader IP and western Europe during extreme wet/dry summers detected by the northwestern IP trees compare favourably to an independent multicentury sea level pressure and drought reconstruction for Europe. Historical records also validate our findings that attribute non-linear moisture signals recorded by extreme tree-ring values to distinct large-scale atmospheric patterns and allow for 400-yr reconstructions of the frequency of occurrence of extreme conditions in summer hydroclimate. We will discuss how the results for Lillo compare with other records.

The impact of CO2 fertilization and historical land use/land cover change on regional climate extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Findell, Kirsten; Berg, Alexis; Gentine, Pierre; Krasting, John; Lintner, Benjamin; Malyshev, Sergey; Santanello, Joseph; Shevliakova, Elena

2017-04-01

Recent research highlights the role of land surface processes in heat waves, droughts, and other extreme events. Here we use an earth system model (ESM) from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) to investigate the regional impacts of historical anthropogenic land use/land cover change (LULCC) and the vegetative response to changes in atmospheric CO2 on combined extremes of temperature and humidity. A bivariate assessment allows us to consider aridity and moist enthalpy extremes, quantities central to human experience of near-surface climate conditions. We show that according to this model, conversion of forests to cropland has contributed to much of the upper central US and central Europe experiencing extreme hot, dry summers every 2-3 years instead of every 10 years. In the tropics, historical patterns of wood harvesting, shifting cultivation and regrowth of secondary vegetation have enhanced near surface moist enthalpy, leading to extensive increases in the occurrence of humid conditions throughout the tropics year round. These critical land use processes and practices are not included in many current generation land models, yet these results identify them as critical factors in the energy and water cycles of the midlatitudes and tropics. Current work is targeted at understanding how CO2 fertilization of plant growth impacts water use efficiency and surface flux partitioning, and how these changes influence temperature and humidity extremes. We use this modeling work to explore how remote sensing can be used to determine how different forest ecosystems in different climatological regimes are responding to enhanced CO2 and a warming world.

Revisiting the 1993 historical extreme precipitation and damaging flood event in Central Nepal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marahatta, S.; Adhikari, L.; Pokharel, B.

2017-12-01

Nepal is ranked the fourth most climate-vulnerable country in the world and it is prone to different weather-related hazards including droughts, floods, and landslides [Wang et al., 2013; Gillies et al., 2013]. Although extremely vulnerable to extreme weather events, there are no extreme weather warning system established to inform public in Nepal. Nepal has witnessed frequent drought and flood events, however, the extreme precipitation that occurred on 19-20 July 1993 created a devastating flood and landslide making it the worst weather disaster in the history of Nepal. During the second week of July, Nepal and northern India experienced abnormal dry condition due to the shifting of the monsoon trough to central India. The dry weather changed to wet when monsoon trough moved northward towards foothills of the Himalayas. Around the same period, a low pressure center was located over the south-central Nepal. The surface low was supported by the mid-, upper-level shortwave and cyclonic vorticity. A meso-scale convective system created record breaking one day rainfall (540 mm) in the region. The torrential rain impacted the major hydropower reservoir, Bagmati barrage in Karmaiya and triggered many landslides and flash floods. The region had the largest hydropower (Kulekhani hydropower, 92 MW) of the country at that time and the storm event deposited extremely large amount of sediments that reduced one-fourth (4.8 million m3) of reservoir dead storage (12 million m3). The 1-in-1000 years flood damaged the newly constructed barrage and took more than 700 lives. Major highways were damaged cutting off supply of daily needed goods, including food and gas, in the capital city, Kathmandu, for more than a month. In this presentation, the meteorological conditions of the extreme event will be diagnosed and the impact of the sedimentation due to the flood on Kulekhani reservoir and hydropower generation will be discussed.

Climate extremes and the carbon cycle - a review using an integrated approach with regional examples for forests & native ecosystems -

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frank, D.; Reichstein, M.; Bahn, M.; Beer, C.; Ciais, P.; Mahecha, M.; Seneviratne, S. I.; Smith, P.; van Oijen, M.; Walz, A.

2012-04-01

The terrestrial carbon cycle provides an important biogeochemical feedback to climate and is itself particularly susceptible to extreme climate events. Climate extremes can override any (positive) effects of mean climate change as shown in European and recent US-American heat waves and dry spells. They can impact the structure, composition, and functioning of terrestrial ecosystems and have the potential to cause rapid carbon losses from accumulated stocks. We review how climate extremes like severe droughts, heat waves, extreme precipitation or storms can cause direct impacts on the CO2 fluxes [e.g. due to extreme temperature and/ or drought events] as well as lagged impacts on the carbon cycle [e.g. via an increased fire risk, or disease outbreaks and pest invasions]. The relative impact of the different climate extremes varies according to climate region and vegetation type. We present lagged effects on plant growth (and mortality) in the year(s) following an extreme event and their impacts on the carbon sequestration of forests and natural ecosystems. Comprehensive regional or even continental quantification with regard to extreme events is missing, and especially compound extreme events, the role of lagged effects and aspects of the return frequency are not studied enough. In a case study of a Mediterranean ecosystem we illustrate that the response of the net carbon balance at ecosystem level to regional climate change is hard to predict as interacting and partly compensating processes are affected and several processes which have the ability to substantially alter the carbon balance are not or not sufficiently represented in state-of-the-art biogeochemical models.

Long-term evaluation of the fate of sulfur mustard on dry and humid soils, asphalt, and concrete.

PubMed

Mizrahi, Dana M; Goldvaser, Michael; Columbus, Ishay

2011-04-15

The long-term fate of the blister agent sulfur mustard (HD, bis(2-chloroethyl)sulfide) was determined in a variety of commercial and natural matrices. HD was found to be extremely stable in dry matrices for over a year. The addition of 5% water to the matrices induced slow degradation of HD, which lasted several months. The major degradation product in sands and asphalt was found to be a sulfonium salt, S[CH(2)CH(2)S(+)(CH(2)CH(2)OH)(2)](2) (H-2TG). Red loam soil, which has not been examined before, exhibited strong interaction with HD, both in dry form and in the presence of water. Humid red loam soil gave rise to unique oxidative degradation products. On humid concrete HD degraded to a complex mixture of products, including vinyls. This may be attributed to the basic sites incorporated in concrete.

Bioclimatic changes and landslide recurrence in the mountainous region of Rio de Janeiro: are we ready to face the next landslide disaster?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luiza Coelho Netto, Ana; Facadio, Ana Carolina; Pereira, Roberta; Lima, Pedro Henrique

2017-04-01

Paleo-environmental studies point out an alternation of wet and dry periods during the Holocene in southeastern Brazil, marked by the expansion and retraction of the humid tropical rainforest in alternation with the campos de altitude vegetation ('high altitude grassland'); successive episodes of natural fire were recorded from 10,000 to 4,000 years BP in the mountainous region of SE-Brazil, reflecting warm-dry conditions. Present seasonal climatic variability is indicated by an increasing dry spell frequency throughout the XX and early XXI centuries together with an increasing rainfall concentration in the summer when extreme daily totals (above 100 mm) become progressively more frequent. Historical land use changes, at both regional and local scales, are mostly related to this climatic variability. Therefore extreme rainfall induced landslides have been responsible for severe disasters as recorded along the Atlantic slopes of Serra do Mar. The extreme one occurred in January 2011, affecting the municipalities of Nova Friburgo, Teresópolis and Petrópolis. Studies in Nova Friburgo shown the occurrence of 3.622 landslides scars within an area of 421 km2; this rainfall event reached the expected average monthly rainfall (300 mm) in less than 10 hours. The D'Antas creek basin (53 km2) was the most affected area by landslides; 86% of 326 scars where associated with shallow translational mechanisms among which 67% occurred within shallow concave up topographic hollows of 32° slope angle in average. Most of these landslide scars occurred in granite rocks and degraded vegetation due to historical land use changes (last 200 years) including secondary forest (64%) and grasslands (25%). The present-day association between extreme rainfall induced landslides and human induced vegetation changes seem to reflect similar geomorphic responses to natural Holocene bioclimatic changes; a common phenomenon between the two periods is fire (natural fire in the past time and man-induced fire nowadays). Despite all field evidences on the relevance of landslides on hillslope evolution in the mountainous domain, local communities at risk and governmental institutions are not yet ready to face the next extreme rain event. Since November 2014 a new governance and risk management model has been developed in the Córrego D'Antas basin, through a multi-institutional network integrating local communities, university and governmental institutions as will be presented in this paper.

A review on recent advances in dry eye: Pathogenesis and management

PubMed Central

Bhavsar, Ankita S.; Bhavsar, Samir G.; Jain, Sunita M.

2011-01-01

Keratoconjunctivitis sicca, more commonly known as dry eye, is an extremely common and often unrecognized disease. It is the condition in ophthalmology that in its mild grade of severity will affect most of the population at one time or other. Due to a wide variety of presentations and symptoms, it often frustrates the ophthalmologists as well as patients. Due to multifactorial and elusive etiology, it is often challenging to treat dry eye. Ocular surface disorders are also clinically important to treat especially in terms of visual acuity. Xero-dacryology is therefore becoming a very important branch of ophthalmology. Recent studies have given insight into the inflammatory etiology of dry eye. The conventional and main approach to the treatment of dry eye is providing lubricating eye drops or tear substitutes. However, the newer treatment approach is to target the underlying cause of dry eye instead of conventional symptomatic relief. In light of the above knowledge, the present article focuses on newer theories on pathogenesis of dry eye and their impact on dry eye management. Method of Literature Search: A systematic literature review was performed using PubMed databases in two steps. The first step was oriented to articles published for dry eye. The second step was focused on the role of inflammation and anti-inflammatory therapy for dry eye. The search strategy was not limited by year of publication. A manual literature search was also undertaken from authentic reference books on ocular surface disease. PMID:21897618

Acute effects of one session dry needling on a chronic golfer’s elbow disability

PubMed Central

Shariat, Ardalan; Noormohammadpour, Pardis; Memari, Amir Hossein; Ansari, Noureddin Nakhostin; Cleland, Joshua A.; Kordi, Ramin

2018-01-01

A 40-year-old retired male elite athlete with more than 20 years’ experience in wrestling and bodybuilding with mild elbow pain and disability of 2 years presented to our clinic reporting an acute pain in medial aspect of the elbow. Physical examination revealed symptoms of left Golfer’s elbow during target-directed movements. The results of sonography in left elbow showed low level of hypo echo irregularity and increased blood flow in color Doppler mode in the common flexor origin. The pain amplitude was moderate at rest and extremely high during kinetic and intentional movements. During last 2 years, the patient tried different types of therapy including manual therapy, Transcutaneous electrical nerve stimulation and also received a variety of injections none of which were effective for reducing pain and disability. This is the first study showed that one sessions of dry needling improved both pain and disability and helped to return to a normal life and exercise training. PMID:29511665

Reconstruction and analysis of spring rainfall over the southeastern US for the past 1000 years

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Stahle, D.W.; Cleaveland, M.K.

1992-12-01

Tree-ring chronologies can provide surprisingly accurate estimates of the natural variability of important climate parameters such as precipitation and temperature during the centuries prior to the industrial Revolution. Bald cypress tree-ring chronologies have been used to reconstruct spring rainfall for the past 1000 years in North Carolina, South Carolina, and Georgia. These rainfall reconstructions explain from 54% to 68% of the spring rainfall variance in each state, and are well verified against independent rainfall measurements. In fact, these tree-ring data explain only 6% to 13% less statewide rainfall variance than is explained by the same number of instrumental raingage records.more » The reconstructions indicate that the spring rainfall extremes and decade-long regimes witnessed during the past century of instrumental observation have been a prominent feature of southeastern United States climate over the past millennium. These spring rainfall regimes are linked in part to anomalies in the seasonal expansion and migration of the subtropical anticyclone over the North Atlantic. The western sector of the Bermuda high often ridges strongly westward into the southeastern United States during dry springs, but during wet springs it is usually located east of its mean position and well offshore. Similar anomalies in the western sector of the Bermuda high occurred during multidecadal regimes of spring rainfall over the Southeast. During the relatively dry springs from 1901 to 1939, the high often ridged into the Southeast, but the western periphery of the high was more frequently located offshore during the relatively wet period from 1940 to 1980. Spring and summer rainfall extremes and decade-long regimes over the Southeast are frequently out of phase, and the tendency for wet (dry) springs to be followed by dry (wet) summers also appears to reflect anomalies in the zonal position of the Bermuda high during spring and summer.« less

Desvenlafaxine

MedlinePlus

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Simulating the effect of climate extremes on groundwater flow through a lakebed.

PubMed

Virdi, Makhan L; Lee, Terrie M; Swancar, Amy; Niswonger, Richard G

2013-03-01

Groundwater exchanges with lakes resulting from cyclical wet and dry climate extremes maintain lake levels in the environment in ways that are not well understood, in part because they remain difficult to simulate. To better understand the atypical groundwater interactions with lakes caused by climatic extremes, an original conceptual approach is introduced using MODFLOW-2005 and a kinematic-wave approximation to variably saturated flow that allows lake size and position in the basin to change while accurately representing the daily lake volume and three-dimensional variably saturated groundwater flow responses in the basin. Daily groundwater interactions are simulated for a calibrated lake basin in Florida over a decade that included historic wet and dry departures from the average rainfall. The divergent climate extremes subjected nearly 70% of the maximum lakebed area and 75% of the maximum shoreline perimeter to both groundwater inflow and lake leakage. About half of the lakebed area subject to flow reversals also went dry. A flow-through pattern present for 73% of the decade caused net leakage from the lake 80% of the time. Runoff from the saturated lake margin offset the groundwater deficit only about half of that time. A centripetal flow pattern present for 6% of the decade was important for maintaining the lake stage and generated 30% of all net groundwater inflow. Pumping effects superimposed on dry climate extremes induced the least frequent but most cautionary flow pattern with leakage from over 90% of the actual lakebed area. Published 2012. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Dry Eye Disease Incidence Associated with Chronic Graft-Host Disease: Nonconcurrent Cohort Study (An American Ophthalmological Society Thesis)

PubMed Central

Mian, Shahzad I.; De la Parra-Colín, Paola; De Melo-Franco, Rafael; Johnson, Christopher; Barrientos-Gutierrez, Tonatiuh

2015-01-01

Purpose: To determine if chronic graft-versus-host disease (cGVHD) after allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT) is associated with stable or progressive dry eye disease and to determine the true incidence in patients with no prior history of dry eye disease. Methods: A nonconcurrent cohort study at a single institution with 136 patients who had no previous history of dry eye disease before HSCT. Survival analysis was used to estimate dry eye disease incidence. The incidence rate was calculated using life tables as the number of observed dry eye disease cases divided by the person-time at risk accumulated by the cohort. Transition probabilities were calculated from time of transplant to time of diagnosis, and then to last recorded visit. Results: Incidence rate was 0.8 cases of dry eye disease per person-year, and half of the population at risk developed dry eye disease during the first 10 months post transplant. Time to develop dry eye disease was 2.5 months for mild dry eye disease, 9.6 months for moderate dry eye disease, and 13.2 months for severe dry eye disease. In terms of cumulative incidence, 73% of subjects developed dry eye disease (50% mild, 16% moderate, and 7% severe) at the time of diagnosis. Conclusions: Our findings suggest that dry eye disease associated with cGVHD is an extremely frequent event and shows a wide spectrum of severity, with a mild form presenting early and a moderate to severe form presenting later after HSCT. These findings need to be studied further to elucidate if these are two different pathophysiological entities or just different expressions of the same pathology. PMID:27507907

Extreme Drought Events Revealed in Amazon Tree Ring Records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jenkins, H. S.; Baker, P. A.; Guilderson, T. P.

2010-12-01

The Amazon basin is a center of deep atmospheric convection and thus acts as a major engine for global hydrologic circulation. Yet despite its significance, a full understanding of Amazon rainfall variability remains elusive due to a poor historical record of climate. Temperate tree rings have been used extensively to reconstruct climate over the last thousand years, however less attention has been given to the application of dendrochronology in tropical regions, in large part due to a lower frequency of tree species known to produce annual rings. Here we present a tree ring record of drought extremes from the Madre de Dios region of southeastern Peru over the last 190 years. We confirm that tree ring growth in species Cedrela odorata is annual and show it to be well correlated with wet season precipitation. This correlation is used to identify extreme dry (and wet) events that have occurred in the past. We focus on drought events identified in the record as drought frequency is expected to increase over the Amazon in a warming climate. The Cedrela chronology records historic Amazon droughts of the 20th century previously identified in the literature and extends the record of drought for this region to the year 1816. Our analysis shows that there has been an increase in the frequency of extreme drought (mean recurrence interval = 5-6 years) since the turn of the 20th century and both Atlantic and Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) forcing mechanisms are implicated.

Complex Socio-Ecological Dynamics driven by extreme events in the Amazon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pinho, P. F.

2015-12-01

Several years with extreme floods or droughts in the past decade have caused human suffering in remote communities of the Brazilian Amazon. Despite documented local knowledge and practices for coping with the high seasonal variability characteristic of the region's hydrology (e.g. 10m change in river levels between dry and flood seasons), and despite 'civil Defense' interventions by various levels of government, the more extreme years seem to have exceeded the coping capacity of the community. In this paper, we explore whether there is a real increase in variability, whether the community perceives that recent extreme events are outside the experience which shapes their responses to 'normal' levels of variability, and what science-based policy could contribute to greater local resilience. Hydrological analyses suggest that variability is indeed increasing, in line with expectations from future climate change. However, current measures of hydrological regimes do not predict years with social hardship very well. Interviewees in two regions are able to express their strategies for dealing with 'normal' variability very well, but also identify ways in which abnormal years exceed their ability to cope. Current Civil Defense arrangements struggle to deliver emergency assistance in a sufficiently timely and locally appropriate fashion. Combining these insights in the context of social-ecological change, we suggest how better integration of science, policy and local knowledge could improve resilience to future trends, and identify some contributions science could make into such an arrangement.

Long-term climate and competition explain forest mortality patterns under extreme drought.

PubMed

Young, Derek J N; Stevens, Jens T; Earles, J Mason; Moore, Jeffrey; Ellis, Adam; Jirka, Amy L; Latimer, Andrew M

2017-01-01

Rising temperatures are amplifying drought-induced stress and mortality in forests globally. It remains uncertain, however, whether tree mortality across drought-stricken landscapes will be concentrated in particular climatic and competitive environments. We investigated the effects of long-term average climate [i.e. 35-year mean annual climatic water deficit (CWD)] and competition (i.e. tree basal area) on tree mortality patterns, using extensive aerial mortality surveys conducted throughout the forests of California during a 4-year statewide extreme drought lasting from 2012 to 2015. During this period, tree mortality increased by an order of magnitude, typically from tens to hundreds of dead trees per km 2 , rising dramatically during the fourth year of drought. Mortality rates increased independently with average CWD and with basal area, and they increased disproportionately in areas that were both dry and dense. These results can assist forest managers and policy-makers in identifying the most drought-vulnerable forests across broad geographic areas. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

Modelling extreme dry spells in the Mediterranean region in connection with atmospheric circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tramblay, Yves; Hertig, Elke

2018-04-01

Long droughts periods can affect the Mediterranean region during the winter season, when most of annual precipitation occurs, and consequently have strong impacts on agriculture, groundwater levels and water resources. The goal of this study is to model annual maximum dry spells lengths (AMDSL) that occur during the extended winter season (October to April). The spatial patterns of extreme dry spells and their relationships with large-scale atmospheric circulation were first investigated. Then, AMDSL were modelled using Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distributions incorporating climatic covariates, to evaluate the dependences of extreme dry spells to synoptic patterns using an analogue approach. The data from a network of 160 rain gauges having daily precipitation measurements between 1960 and 2009 are considered together with the ERA-20C reanalysis of the 20th century to provide atmospheric variables (geopotential heights, humidity, winds). A regional classification of both the occurrence and the duration of AMDSL helped to distinguish three spatially contiguous regions in which the regional distributions were found homogeneous. From composite analysis, significant positive anomalies in geopotential height (Z500) and negative anomalies in zonal wind (U850) and relative and specific humidity (S850, R850) were found to be associated with AMDSL in the three regions and provided the reference to build analogue days. Finally, non-stationary GEV models have been compared, in which the location and scale parameters are related to different atmospheric indices. Results indicates, at the whole Mediterranean scale, that positives anomalies of the North Atlantic Oscillation index and to a lesser extent the Mediterranean Oscillation index are linked to longer extreme dry spells in the majority of stations. For the three regions identified, the frequency of U850 negative anomalies over North Africa is significantly associated with the magnitude of AMDSL. AMDL are also associated with the frequency of S850 negative anomalies for the southeastern region, and with positive Z500 anomalies for the Western and North-eastern Mediterranean regions.

Severe dry winter affects plant phenology and carbon balance of a cork oak woodland understorey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Correia, A. C.; Costa-e-Silva, F.; Dubbert, M.; Piayda, A.; Pereira, J. S.

2016-10-01

Mediterranean climates are prone to a great variation in yearly precipitation. The effects on ecosystem will depend on the severity and timing of droughts. In this study we questioned how an extreme dry winter affects the carbon flux in the understorey of a cork oak woodland? What is the seasonal contribution of understorey vegetation to ecosystem productivity? We used closed-system portable chambers to measure CO2 exchange of the dominant shrub species (Cistus salviifolius, Cistus crispus and Ulex airensis), of the herbaceous layer and on bare soil in a cork oak woodland in central Portugal during the dry winter year of 2012. Shoot growth, leaf shedding, flower and fruit setting, above and belowground plant biomass were measured as well as seasonal leaf water potential. Eddy-covariance and micrometeorological data together with CO2 exchange measurements were used to access the understorey species contribution to ecosystem gross primary productivity (GPP). The herbaceous layer productivity was severely affected by the dry winter, with half of the yearly maximum aboveground biomass in comparison with the 6 years site average. The semi-deciduous and evergreen shrubs showed desynchronized phenophases and lagged carbon uptake maxima. Whereas shallow-root shrubs exhibited opportunistic characteristics in exploiting the understorey light and water resources, deep rooted shrubs showed better water status but considerably lower assimilation rates. The contribution of understorey vegetation to ecosystem GPP was lower during summer with 14% and maximum during late spring, concomitantly with the lowest tree productivity due to tree canopy renewal. The herbaceous vegetation contribution to ecosystem GPP never exceeded 6% during this dry year stressing its sensitivity to winter and spring precipitation. Although shrubs are more resilient to precipitation variability when compared with the herbaceous vegetation, the contribution of the understorey vegetation to ecosystem GPP can be quite variable and will ultimately depend of tree density and canopy cover.

Dry, drier, driest: An Australian story of extreme years and potential ecosystem collapse

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wardle, G. M.; Dickman, C. R.; Greenville, A. C.

2016-12-01

Ecosystems are expected to undergo large changes due to an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme events. We can expect droughts to be longer, flooding to be more intense, and heatwaves and fires to increase. Importantly, at the regional scale these projections which are based on global climate models come with additional uncertainties that challenge how we can plan and evaluate options for adaptation. For many ecosystems, the understanding of the interdependencies and function is still limited, and particularly so for areas such as inland Australia that already exhibit unpredictable rainfall and lack strong seasonality. These drylands are water-limited and operate differently in dry, or wet years, when episodic pulses of resources drive increases in productivity. Increased extremes have the potential to disrupt the function of these highly dynamic and complex systems through feedbacks, synergies and through memory or delayed responses to change. Using our long-term work in the Simpson Desert as a case study, we explore the trends in productivity, the responses of flora and fauna to these opportunities and the spatial connectedness and heterogeneities that support the persistence of the ecosystem through dry times. Theory tells us that ecosystems may shift states abruptly when they cross critical thresholds. For example, arid grasslands may no longer have the capacity to return to a productive state following good rains. This happens under desertification, where plant cover and growth is limited — with flow on consequences for the entire ecosystem. Forecasting such changes is crucial but the fundamental knowledge relies on information that spans both long time scales and large spatial scales. We examine the knowledge gaps in quantifying ecosystem collapse using our IUCN ecosystem risk assessment of the Georgina gidgee woodlands. We conclude by arguing that without long-term data on trends and integration across the biophysical and and biological components at large spatial scales we cannot hope to anticipate ecosystem collapse and take appropriate action. The Terrestrial Ecosystem Research Network is leading the way for Australia to contribute to this important global ecosystem capability.

On the Role of SST Forcing in the 2011 and 2012 Extreme U.S. Heat and Drought: A Study in Contrasts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wang, Hailan; Schubert, Siegfried; Koster, Randal; Ham, Yoo-Geun; Suarez, Max

2013-01-01

This study compares the extreme heat and drought that developed over the United States in 2011 and 2012 with a focus on the role of SST forcing. Experiments with the NASA GEOS-5 atmospheric general circulation model show that the winter/spring response over the U.S. to the Pacific SST is remarkably similar for the two years despite substantial differences in the tropical Pacific SST. As such, the pronounced winter and early spring temperature differences between the two years (warmth confined to the south in 2011 and covering much of the continent in 2012) primarily reflect differences in the contributions from the Atlantic and Indian Oceans, with both acting to cool the east and upper mid-west during 2011, while during 2012 the Indian Ocean reinforced the Pacific-driven continental-wide warming and the Atlantic played a less important role. During late spring and summer of 2011 the tropical Pacific SST force a continued warming and drying over the southern U.S., though considerably weaker than observed. Nevertheless, the observed anomalies fall within the models intra-ensemble spread. In contrast, the rapid development of intense heat and drying over the central U.S. during June and July of 2012 falls outside the models intra-ensemble spread. The response to the SST (a northward expansion of a modest summer warming linked to the Atlantic) gives little indication that 2012 would produce record-breaking precipitation deficits and heat in the central Great Plains. A diagnosis of the 2012 observed circulation anomalies shows that the most extreme heat and drought was tied to the development of a stationary Rossby wave and an associated anomalous upper tropospheric high maintained by weather transients.

Irrigation mitigates against heat extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thiery, Wim; Fischer, Erich; Visser, Auke; Hirsch, Annette L.; Davin, Edouard L.; Lawrence, Dave; Hauser, Mathias; Seneviratne, Sonia I.

2017-04-01

Irrigation is an essential practice for sustaining global food production and many regional economies. Emerging scientific evidence indicates that irrigation substantially affects mean climate conditions in different regions of the world. Yet how this practice influences climate extremes is currently unknown. Here we use gridded observations and ensemble simulations with the Community Earth System Model to assess the impacts of irrigation on climate extremes. While the influence of irrigation on annual mean temperatures is limited, we find a large impact on temperature extremes, with a particularly strong cooling during the hottest day of the year (-0.78 K averaged over irrigated land). The strong influence on hot extremes stems from the timing of irrigation and its influence on land-atmosphere coupling strength. Together these effects result in asymmetric temperature responses, with a more pronounced cooling during hot and/or dry periods. The influence of irrigation is even more pronounced when considering subgrid-scale model output, suggesting that local effects of land management are far more important than previously thought. Finally we find that present-day irrigation is partly masking GHG-induced warming of extreme temperatures, with particularly strong effects in South Asia. Our results overall underline that irrigation substantially reduces our exposure to hot temperature extremes and highlight the need to account for irrigation in future climate projections.

El Niño Could Drive Intense Season for Amazon Fires

NASA Image and Video Library

2017-12-08

El Niño conditions in 2015 and early 2016 altered rainfall patterns around the world. In the Amazon, El Niño reduced rainfall during the wet season, leaving the region drier at the start of the 2016 dry season than any year since 2002, according to NASA satellite data. Wildfire risk for the dry season months of July to October this year now exceeds fire risk in 2005 and 2010, drought years when wildfires burned large areas of Amazon rainforest, said Doug Morton, an Earth scientist at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center who helped create the fire forecast. "Severe drought conditions at the start of the dry season set the stage for extreme fire risk in 2016 across the southern Amazon," Morton said. The Amazon fire forecast uses the relationship between climate and active fire detections from NASA satellites to predict fire season severity during the region’s dry season. Developed in 2011 by scientists at University of California, Irvine and NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center, the forecast model is focused particularly on the link between sea surface temperatures and fire activity. Warmer sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific (El Niño) and Atlantic oceans shift rainfall away from the Amazon region, increasing the risk of fires during dry season months. Read more: go.nasa.gov/2937ADt NASA image use policy. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center enables NASA’s mission through four scientific endeavors: Earth Science, Heliophysics, Solar System Exploration, and Astrophysics. Goddard plays a leading role in NASA’s accomplishments by contributing compelling scientific knowledge to advance the Agency’s mission. Follow us on Twitter Like us on Facebook Find us on Instagram

Technology development of protein rich concentrates for nutrition in extreme conditions using soybean and meat by-products.

PubMed

Kalenik, Tatiana K; Costa, Rui; Motkina, Elena V; Kosenko, Tamara A; Skripko, Olga V; Kadnikova, Irina A

2017-01-01

There is a need to develop new foods for participants of expeditions in extreme conditions, which must be self-sufficient. These foods should be light to carry, with a long shelf life, tasty and with  high nutrient density. Currently, protein sources are limited mainly to dried and canned meat. In this work, a protein-rich dried concentrate suitable for extreme expeditions was developed using soya, tomato, milk whey and meat by-products. Protein concentrates were developed using minced beef liver and heart, dehydrated and mixed with a soya protein-lycopene coagulate (SPLC) obtained from a solution prepared with germi- nated soybeans and mixed with tomato paste in milk whey, and finally dried. The technological parameters of pressing SPLC and of drying the protein concentrate were optimized using response surface methodology. The optimized technological parameters to prepare the protein concentrates were obtained, with 70:30 being the ideal ratio of minced meat to SPLC. The developed protein concentrates are characterized by a high calorific value of 376 kcal/100 g of dry product, with a water content of 98 g·kg-1, and 641-644 g·kg-1 of proteins. The essential amino acid indices are 100, with minimum essential amino acid content constitut- ing 100-128% of the FAO standard, depending on the raw meat used. These concentrates are also rich in micronutrients such as β-carotene and vitamin C. Analysis of the nutrient content showed that these non-perishable concentrates present a high nutritional value and complement other widely available vegetable concentrates to prepare a two-course meal. The soups and porridges prepared with these concentrates can be classified as functional foods, and comply with army requirements applicable to food products for extreme conditions.

Drought timing influences the legacy of tree growth recovery.

PubMed

Huang, Mengtian; Wang, Xuhui; Keenan, Trevor F; Piao, Shilong

2018-05-04

Whether and how the timing of extreme events affects the direction and magnitude of legacy effects on tree growth is poorly understood. In this study, we use a global database of Ring-Width Index (RWI) from 2,500 sites to examine the impact and legacy effects (the departure of observed RWI from expected RWI) of extreme drought events during 1948-2008, with a particular focus on the influence of drought timing. We assessed the recovery of stem radial growth in the years following severe drought events with separate groupings designed to characterize the timing of the drought. We found that legacies from extreme droughts during the dry season (DS droughts) lasted longer and had larger impacts in each of the 3 years post drought than those from extreme droughts during the wet season (WS droughts). At the global scale, the average integrated legacy from DS droughts (0.18) was about nine times that from WS droughts (0.02). Site-level comparisons also suggest stronger negative impacts or weaker positive impacts of DS droughts on tree growth than WS droughts. Our results, therefore, highlight that the timing of drought is a crucial factor determining drought impacts on tree recovery. Further increases in baseline aridity could therefore exacerbate the impact of punctuated droughts on terrestrial ecosystems. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Changes in atmospheric circulation patterns affect midcontinent wetlands sensitive to climate

USGS Publications Warehouse

LaBaugh, J.W.; Winter, T.C.; Swanson, G.A.; Rosenberry, D.

1996-01-01

Twenty-seven years of data from midcontinent wetlands indicate that the response of these wetlands to extremes in precipitation-drought and deluge-persists beyond the extreme events. Chemical changes transcend such simple relations as increased salinity during dry periods because drought provides mechanisms for removal of salt by deflation and seepage to groundwater. Inundation of vegetation zones including rooted or floating mats of cattail (Typha glauca) can stimulate sulfate reduction and shift the anion balance from sulfate to bicarbonate dominance. Disruptions in the circulation of moisture-laden air masses over the midcontinent, as in the drought of 1988 and the deluge of 1993, have a major effect on these wetlands, which are representatives of the primary waterfowl breeding habitat of the continent.

Keratomalacia

MedlinePlus

... affected, resulting in an inadequate tear film and dry eyes. People with extreme eye dryness can develop foamy ... keratomalacia is based on the presence of a dry or ulcerated cornea in an undernourished person. ... eye drops or ointments Treatment of vitamin A deficiency ...

Controls on the distribution of productivity and organic resources in Antarctic Dry Valley soils.

PubMed

Hopkins, D W; Sparrow, A D; Novis, P M; Gregorich, E G; Elberling, B; Greenfield, L G

2006-11-07

The Antarctic Dry Valleys are regarded as one of the harshest terrestrial habitats on Earth because of the extremely cold and dry conditions. Despite the extreme environment and scarcity of conspicuous primary producers, the soils contain organic carbon and heterotrophic micro-organisms and invertebrates. Potential sources of organic compounds to sustain soil organisms include in situ primary production by micro-organisms and mosses, spatial subsidies from lacustrine and marine-derived detritus, and temporal subsidies ('legacies') from ancient lake deposits. The contributions from these sources at different sites are likely to be influenced by local environmental conditions, especially soil moisture content, position in the landscape in relation to lake level oscillations and legacies from previous geomorphic processes. Here we review the abiotic factors that influence biological activity in Dry Valley soils and present a conceptual model that summarizes mechanisms leading to organic resources therein.

Asymmetric responses of primary productivity to altered precipitation simulated by ecosystem models across three long-term grassland sites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Donghai; Ciais, Philippe; Viovy, Nicolas; Knapp, Alan K.; Wilcox, Kevin; Bahn, Michael; Smith, Melinda D.; Vicca, Sara; Fatichi, Simone; Zscheischler, Jakob; He, Yue; Li, Xiangyi; Ito, Akihiko; Arneth, Almut; Harper, Anna; Ukkola, Anna; Paschalis, Athanasios; Poulter, Benjamin; Peng, Changhui; Ricciuto, Daniel; Reinthaler, David; Chen, Guangsheng; Tian, Hanqin; Genet, Hélène; Mao, Jiafu; Ingrisch, Johannes; Nabel, Julia E. S. M.; Pongratz, Julia; Boysen, Lena R.; Kautz, Markus; Schmitt, Michael; Meir, Patrick; Zhu, Qiuan; Hasibeder, Roland; Sippel, Sebastian; Dangal, Shree R. S.; Sitch, Stephen; Shi, Xiaoying; Wang, Yingping; Luo, Yiqi; Liu, Yongwen; Piao, Shilong

2018-06-01

Field measurements of aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP) in temperate grasslands suggest that both positive and negative asymmetric responses to changes in precipitation (P) may occur. Under normal range of precipitation variability, wet years typically result in ANPP gains being larger than ANPP declines in dry years (positive asymmetry), whereas increases in ANPP are lower in magnitude in extreme wet years compared to reductions during extreme drought (negative asymmetry). Whether the current generation of ecosystem models with a coupled carbon-water system in grasslands are capable of simulating these asymmetric ANPP responses is an unresolved question. In this study, we evaluated the simulated responses of temperate grassland primary productivity to scenarios of altered precipitation with 14 ecosystem models at three sites: Shortgrass steppe (SGS), Konza Prairie (KNZ) and Stubai Valley meadow (STU), spanning a rainfall gradient from dry to moist. We found that (1) the spatial slopes derived from modeled primary productivity and precipitation across sites were steeper than the temporal slopes obtained from inter-annual variations, which was consistent with empirical data; (2) the asymmetry of the responses of modeled primary productivity under normal inter-annual precipitation variability differed among models, and the mean of the model ensemble suggested a negative asymmetry across the three sites, which was contrary to empirical evidence based on filed observations; (3) the mean sensitivity of modeled productivity to rainfall suggested greater negative response with reduced precipitation than positive response to an increased precipitation under extreme conditions at the three sites; and (4) gross primary productivity (GPP), net primary productivity (NPP), aboveground NPP (ANPP) and belowground NPP (BNPP) all showed concave-down nonlinear responses to altered precipitation in all the models, but with different curvatures and mean values. Our results indicated that most models overestimate the negative drought effects and/or underestimate the positive effects of increased precipitation on primary productivity under normal climate conditions, highlighting the need for improving eco-hydrological processes in those models in the future.

Exergetic simulation of a combined infrared-convective drying process

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aghbashlo, Mortaza

2016-04-01

Optimal design and performance of a combined infrared-convective drying system with respect to the energy issue is extremely put through the application of advanced engineering analyses. This article proposes a theoretical approach for exergy analysis of the combined infrared-convective drying process using a simple heat and mass transfer model. The applicability of the developed model to actual drying processes was proved using an illustrative example for a typical food.

Analysis of meteorological droughts and dry spells in semiarid regions: a comparative analysis of probability distribution functions in the Segura Basin (SE Spain)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pérez-Sánchez, Julio; Senent-Aparicio, Javier

2017-08-01

Dry spells are an essential concept of drought climatology that clearly defines the semiarid Mediterranean environment and whose consequences are a defining feature for an ecosystem, so vulnerable with regard to water. The present study was conducted to characterize rainfall drought in the Segura River basin located in eastern Spain, marked by the self seasonal nature of these latitudes. A daily precipitation set has been utilized for 29 weather stations during a period of 20 years (1993-2013). Furthermore, four sets of dry spell length (complete series, monthly maximum, seasonal maximum, and annual maximum) are used and simulated for all the weather stations with the following probability distribution functions: Burr, Dagum, error, generalized extreme value, generalized logistic, generalized Pareto, Gumbel Max, inverse Gaussian, Johnson SB, Log-Logistic, Log-Pearson 3, Triangular, Weibull, and Wakeby. Only the series of annual maximum spell offer a good adjustment for all the weather stations, thereby gaining the role of Wakeby as the best result, with a p value means of 0.9424 for the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test (0.2 significance level). Probability of dry spell duration for return periods of 2, 5, 10, and 25 years maps reveal the northeast-southeast gradient, increasing periods with annual rainfall of less than 0.1 mm in the eastern third of the basin, in the proximity of the Mediterranean slope.

Dry Valleys, Antarctica

NASA Image and Video Library

2009-11-02

The McMurdo Dry Valleys are a row of valleys west of McMurdo Sound, Antarctica. They are so named because of their extremely low humidity and lack of snow and ice cover. This image was acquired December 8, 2002 by NASA Terra spacecraft.

El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Enhances CO2 Exchange Rates in Freshwater Marsh Ecosystems in the Florida Everglades

PubMed Central

Malone, Sparkle L.; Staudhammer, Christina L.; Oberbauer, Steven F.; Olivas, Paulo; Ryan, Michael G.; Schedlbauer, Jessica L.; Loescher, Henry W.; Starr, Gregory

2014-01-01

This research examines the relationships between El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), water level, precipitation patterns and carbon dioxide (CO2) exchange rates in the freshwater wetland ecosystems of the Florida Everglades. Data was obtained over a 5-year study period (2009–2013) from two freshwater marsh sites located in Everglades National Park that differ in hydrology. At the short-hydroperiod site (Taylor Slough; TS) and the long-hydroperiod site (Shark River Slough; SRS) fluctuations in precipitation patterns occurred with changes in ENSO phase, suggesting that extreme ENSO phases alter Everglades hydrology which is known to have a substantial influence on ecosystem carbon dynamics. Variations in both ENSO phase and annual net CO2 exchange rates co-occurred with changes in wet and dry season length and intensity. Combined with site-specific seasonality in CO2 exchanges rates, El Niño and La Niña phases magnified season intensity and CO2 exchange rates at both sites. At TS, net CO2 uptake rates were higher in the dry season, whereas SRS had greater rates of carbon sequestration during the wet season. As La Niña phases were concurrent with drought years and extended dry seasons, TS became a greater sink for CO2 on an annual basis (−11 to −110 g CO2 m−2 yr−1) compared to El Niño and neutral years (−5 to −43.5 g CO2 m−2 yr−1). SRS was a small source for CO2 annually (1.81 to 80 g CO2 m−2 yr−1) except in one exceptionally wet year that was associated with an El Niño phase (−16 g CO2 m−2 yr−1). Considering that future climate predictions suggest a higher frequency and intensity in El Niño and La Niña phases, these results indicate that changes in extreme ENSO phases will significantly alter CO2 dynamics in the Florida Everglades. PMID:25521299

Straw Mulching Reduces the Harmful Effects of Extreme Hydrological and Temperature Conditions in Citrus Orchards

PubMed Central

Liu, Yi; Wang, Jing; Liu, Dongbi; Li, Zhiguo; Zhang, Guoshi; Tao, Yong; Xie, Juan; Pan, Junfeng; Chen, Fang

2014-01-01

Extreme weather conditions with negative impacts can strongly affect agricultural production. In the Danjiangkou reservoir area, citrus yields were greatly influenced by cold weather conditions and drought stress in 2011. Soil straw mulching (SM) practices have a major effect on soil water and thermal regimes. A two-year field experiment was conducted to evaluate whether the SM practices can help achieve favorable citrus fruit yields. Results showed that the annual total runoff was significantly (P<0.05) reduced with SM as compared to the control (CK). Correspondingly, mean soil water storage in the top 100 cm of the soil profile was increased in the SM as compared to the CK treatment. However, this result was significant only in the dry season (Jan to Mar), and not in the wet season (Jul to Sep) for both years. Interestingly, the SM treatment did not significantly increase citrus fruit yield in 2010 but did so in 2011, when the citrus crop was completely destroyed (zero fruit yield) in the CK treatment plot due to extremely low temperatures during the citrus overwintering stage. The mulch probably acted as an insulator, resulting in smaller fluctuations in soil temperature in the SM than in the CK treatment. The results suggested that the small effects on soil water and temperature changes created by surface mulch had limited impact on citrus fruit yield in a normal year (e.g., in 2010). However, SM practices can positively impact citrus fruit yield in extreme weather conditions. PMID:24489844

Relative Influence of Initial Surface and Atmospheric Conditions on Seasonal Water and Energy Balances

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Oglesby, Robert J.; Marshall, Susan; Roads, John O.; Robertson, Franklin R.; Goodman, H. Michael (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

We constructed and analyzed wet and dry soil moisture composites for the mid-latitude GCIP region of the central US using long climate model simulations made with the NCAR CCM3 and reanalysis products from NCEP. Using the diagnostic composites as a guide, we have completed a series of predictability experiments in which we imposed soil water initial conditions in CCM3 for the GCIP region for June 1 from anomalously wet and dry years, with atmospheric initial conditions taken from June 1 of a year with 'near-normal' soil water, and initial soil water from the near-normal year and atmospheric initial conditions from the wet and dry years. Preliminary results indicate that the initial state of the atmosphere is more important than the initial state of soil water determining the subsequent late spring and summer evolution of sod water over the GCIP region. Surprisingly, neither the composites or the predictability experiments yielded a strong influence of soil moisture on the atmosphere. To explore this further, we have made runs with extreme dry soil moisture initial anomalies imposed over the GCIP region (the soil close to being completely dry). These runs did yield a very strong effect on the atmosphere that persisted for at least three months. We conclude that the magnitude of the initial soil moisture anomaly is crucial, at least in CCM3, and are currently investigating whether a threshold exists, below which little impact is seen. In a complementary study, we compared the impact of the initial condition of snow cover versus the initial atmospheric state over the western US (corresponding to the westward extension of the GAPP program follow-on to GCIP). In this case, the initial prescription of snow cover is far more important than the initial atmospheric state in determining the subsequent evolution of snow cover. We are currently working to understand the very different soil water and snow cover results.

Rainfall characterisation by application of standardised precipitation index (SPI) in Peninsular Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yusof, Fadhilah; Hui-Mean, Foo; Suhaila, Jamaludin; Yusop, Zulkifli; Ching-Yee, Kong

2014-02-01

The interpretations of trend behaviour for dry and wet events are analysed in order to verify the dryness and wetness episodes. The fitting distribution of rainfall is computed to classify the dry and wet events by applying the standardised precipitation index (SPI). The rainfall amount for each station is categorised into seven categories, namely extremely wet, severely wet, moderately wet, near normal, moderately dry, severely dry and extremely dry. The computation of the SPI is based on the monsoon periods, which include the northeast monsoon, southwest monsoon and inter-monsoon. The trends of the dry and wet periods were then detected using the Mann-Kendall trend test and the results indicate that the major parts of Peninsular Malaysia are characterised by increasing droughts rather than wet events. The annual trends of drought and wet events of the randomly selected stations from each region also yield similar results. Hence, the northwest and southwest regions are predicted to have a higher probability of drought occurrence during a dry event and not much rain during the wet event. The east and west regions, on the other hand, are going through a significant upward trend that implies lower rainfall during the drought episodes and heavy rainfall during the wet events.

Climate Change in Nicaragua: a dynamical downscaling of precipitation and temperature.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Porras, Ignasi; Domingo-Dalmau, Anna; Sole, Josep Maria; Arasa, Raul; Picanyol, Miquel; Ángeles Gonzalez-Serrano, M.°; Masdeu, Marta

2016-04-01

Climate Change affects weather patterns and modifies meteorological extreme events like tropical cyclones, heavy rainfalls, dry events, extreme temperatures, etc. The aim of this study is to show the Climate Change projections over Nicaragua for the period 2010-2040 focused on precipitation and temperature. In order to obtain the climate change signal, the results obtained by modelling a past period (1980-2009) were compared with the ones obtained by modelling a future period (2010-2040). The modelling method was based on a dynamical downscaling, coupling global and regional models. The MPI-ESM-MR global climate model was selected due to the better performance over Nicaragua. Moreover, a detailed sensitivity analysis for different parameterizations and schemes of the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF-ARW) model was made to minimize the model uncertainty. To evaluate and validate the methodology, a comparison between model outputs and satellite measurements data was realized. The results show an expected increment of the temperature and an increment of the number of days per year with temperatures higher than 35°C. Monthly precipitation patterns will change although annual total precipitation will be similar. In addition, number of dry days are expected to increase.

Predicting Extreme Droughts in Savannah Africa: A Comparison of Proxy and Direct Measures in Detecting Biomass Fluctuations, Trends and Their Causes.

PubMed

Western, David; Mose, Victor N; Worden, Jeffrey; Maitumo, David

2015-01-01

We monitored pasture biomass on 20 permanent plots over 35 years to gauge the reliability of rainfall and NDVI as proxy measures of forage shortfalls in a savannah ecosystem. Both proxies are reliable indicators of pasture biomass at the onset of dry periods but fail to predict shortfalls in prolonged dry spells. In contrast, grazing pressure predicts pasture deficits with a high degree of accuracy. Large herbivores play a primary role in determining the severity of pasture deficits and variation across habitats. Grazing pressure also explains oscillations in plant biomass unrelated to rainfall. Plant biomass has declined steadily and biomass per unit of rainfall has fallen by a third, corresponding to a doubling in grazing intensity over the study period. The rising probability of forage deficits fits local pastoral perceptions of an increasing frequency of extreme shortfalls. The decline in forage is linked to sedentarization, range loss and herbivore compression into drought refuges, rather than climate change. The results show that the decline in rangeland productivity and increasing frequency of pasture shortfalls can be ameliorated by better husbandry practices and reinforces the need for ground monitoring to complement remote sensing in forecasting pasture shortfalls.

Cannon AFB, Clovis, New Mexico. Revised Uniform Summary of Surface Weather Observations (RUSSWO), Parts A-F

DTIC Science & Technology

1975-06-16

dry -bulb temperature, means and standard d~viatinne nf eirg-hiiih- wM~e-.h,lh (y DD 1473 ~ UNCLASSIFIED SECURIS- CLASSIFICATION OF THIS PAGE(Ifnon...Val. Entoted) 19. Percentqge frequency of distribution tables Dry -bulb temperature versus wet-bulb temperature Cumulative percentage frequency of...ATMOSPHERIC PHENOMENA EXTREME MAX & MIN TEMP PART B PRECIPITATION PSYCHROMETRIC- DRY VS WET BULB SNOWFALL MEAN & STD DEV - ( DRY BULB, WET BULB, & DEW

On the Causes of and Long Term Changes in Eurasian Heat Waves

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schubert, Siegfried; Wang, Hailan; Koster, Randal; Suarez, Max

2012-01-01

The MERRA reanalysis, other observations, and the GEOS-S model have been used to diagnose the causes of Eurasian heat waves including the recent extreme events that occurred in Europe during 2003 and in Russia during 2010. The results show that such extreme events are an amplification of natural patterns of atmospheric variability (in this case a particular large-scale atmospheric planetary wave) that develop over the Eurasian continent as a result of internal atmospheric forcing. The amplification occurs when the wave occasionally becomes locked in place for several weeks to months resulting in extreme heat and drying with the location depending on the phase of the upper atmospheric wave. Model experiments suggest that forcing from both the ocean (SST) and land playa role phase-locking the waves. An ensemble of very long GEOS-S model simulations (spanning the 20th century) forced with observed SST and greenhouse gases show that the model is capable of generating very similar heat waves, and that they have become more extreme in the last thirty years as a result of the overall warming of the Asian continent.

Spatio-temporal variability of dry and wet periods in mainland Portugal and its relationships with teleconnection patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Espírito Santo, Fátima; de Lima, Isabel P.; Silva, Álvaro; Pires, Vanda; de Lima, João L. M. P.

2014-05-01

Large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns and their persistence are known to drive inter-annual variability of precipitation in Europe, although depending on geographical location; this includes precipitation extremes and their trends. The vast range of time and space scales involved leads sometimes to precipitation deficits and surpluses which might affect in a different way the society, the environment and the economy at the local and regional scales, depending on specific conditions. In addition, changes in the climate are expected to affect the occurrence of extreme weather and climate events that might influence significantly the distribution, availability and sustainability of regional water resources. The location of mainland Portugal on the Northeast Atlantic region, in South-western Europe, together with other geographical features, makes this territory vulnerable to extreme dry/wet hydro-meteorological events, driven by the strong variability in precipitation. In our study we discuss, for this territory, the relation between the spatio-temporal variability in those events, including their persistence at different scales, and the variability in several modes of low frequency variability; special attention is dedicated to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Scandinavian pattern (SCAND). Some of these dry/wet episodes affect different aspects of the hydrologic cycle and are likely to lead to drought and soil wetness/saturation conditions that can enhance flood events. Such episodes were categorized here using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), which was calculated at short (3 and 6-month) and long (12 and 24-month) time scales from monthly precipitation data recorded in the 1941-2012 period (72 years) at 50 precipitation stations scattered across the study area. Moreover, because SPI is a normalized index, it is also suitable to provide spatial representations of these conditions, allowing the comparison between areas within the same region. Thus, indices were interpolated for the whole territory using deterministic and geostatistical methods, and the zonal statistics results were mapped; the spatial interpolation, analysis and mapping were implemented in ArcGIS. Results confirm that the precipitation in this region is strongly influenced by the NAO and SCAND, in particular in the wettest months. Moreover, the annual SPI shows a significant increase in the extent of dry extremes and a non-significant decrease in the extent of wet extremes. For shorter time scales, the behaviour depends on the season. We discuss the observed SPI trends and the uncertainties for the precipitation regime in the southern and western parts of the Iberian Peninsula, which includes mainland Portugal. Results underline potential applications of SPI for water resources management, which is discussed in the context of the regional hydrological conditions and increasing demand for water for different uses.

Present-day irrigation mitigates heat extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thiery, Wim; Davin, Edouard L.; Lawrence, David M.; Hirsch, Annette L.; Hauser, Mathias; Seneviratne, Sonia I.

2017-02-01

Irrigation is an essential practice for sustaining global food production and many regional economies. Emerging scientific evidence indicates that irrigation substantially affects mean climate conditions in different regions of the world. Yet how this practice influences climate extremes is currently unknown. Here we use ensemble simulations with the Community Earth System Model to assess the impacts of irrigation on climate extremes. An evaluation of the model performance reveals that irrigation has a small yet overall beneficial effect on the representation of present-day near-surface climate. While the influence of irrigation on annual mean temperatures is limited, we find a large impact on temperature extremes, with a particularly strong cooling during the hottest day of the year (-0.78 K averaged over irrigated land). The strong influence on extremes stems from the timing of irrigation and its influence on land-atmosphere coupling strength. Together these effects result in asymmetric temperature responses, with a more pronounced cooling during hot and/or dry periods. The influence of irrigation is even more pronounced when considering subgrid-scale model output, suggesting that local effects of land management are far more important than previously thought. Our results underline that irrigation has substantially reduced our exposure to hot temperature extremes in the past and highlight the need to account for irrigation in future climate projections.

Variability of extreme rainfall over La Plata Basin and Amazon Basin in South America in model simulations of the 20th century and projections under global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cavalcanti, I. F.

2011-12-01

The two largest river basins in South America are Amazon Basin (AMB) in the tropical region and La Plata Basin (LPB) in subtropical and extratropical regions. Extreme droughts have occurred during this decade in Amazonia region which have affected the transportation, fishing activities with impacts in the local population, and also affecting the forest. Droughts or floods over LPB have impacts on agriculture, hydroelectricity power and social life. Therefore, monthly wet and dry extremes in these two regions have a profound effect on the economy and society. Observed rainfall over Amazon Basin (AMB) and La Plata Basin (LPB) is analyzed in monthly timescale using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), from 1979 to 1999. This period is taken to compare GPCP data with HADCM3 simulations (Hadley Centre) of the 20th century and to analyze reanalyses data which have the contribution of satellite information after 1979. HADCM3 projections using SRES A2 scenario is analyzed in two periods: 2000 to 2020 and 2079 to 2099 to study the extremes frequency in a near future and in a longer timescale. Extreme, severe and moderate cases are identified in the northern and southern sectors of LPB and in the western and eastern sectors of AMB. The main objective is to analyze changes in the frequency of cases, considering the global warming and the associated mechanisms. In the observations for the 20th century, the number of extreme rainy cases is higher than the number of dry cases in both sectors of LPB and AMB. The model simulates this variability in the two sectors of LPB and in the west sector of AMB. In the near future 2000 to 2020 the frequency of wet and dry extremes does not change much in LPB and in the western sector of AMB, but the wet cases increase in the eastern AMB. However, in the period of 2079 to 2099 the projections indicate increase of wet cases in LPB and increase of dry cases in AMB. The influence of large scale features related to Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies, Walker and Hadley circulations, teleconnections, as well as the regional features related to humidity flux are discussed. The extreme droughts of 2005 and 2010 in Amazonia are show to be related to these features.

Tectonics, orbital forcing, global climate change, and human evolution in Africa: introduction to the African paleoclimate special volume.

PubMed

Maslin, Mark A; Christensen, Beth

2007-11-01

The late Cenozoic climate of Africa is a critical component for understanding human evolution. African climate is controlled by major tectonic changes, global climate transitions, and local variations in orbital forcing. We introduce the special African Paleoclimate Issue of the Journal of Human Evolution by providing a background for and synthesis of the latest work relating to the environmental context for human evolution. Records presented in this special issue suggest that the regional tectonics, appearance of C(4) plants in East Africa, and late Cenozoic global cooling combined to produce a long-term drying trend in East Africa. Of particular importance is the uplift associated with the East African Rift Valley formation, which altered wind flow patterns from a more zonal to more meridinal direction. Results in this volume suggest a marked difference in the climate history of southern and eastern Africa, though both are clearly influenced by the major global climate thresholds crossed in the last 3 million years. Papers in this volume present lake, speleothem, and marine paleoclimate records showing that the East African long-term drying trend is punctuated by episodes of short, alternating periods of extreme wetness and aridity. These periods of extreme climate variability are characterized by the precession-forced appearance and disappearance of large, deep lakes in the East African Rift Valley and paralleled by low and high wind-driven dust loads reaching the adjacent ocean basins. Dating of these records show that over the last 3 million years such periods only occur at the times of major global climatic transitions, such as the intensification of Northern Hemisphere Glaciation (2.7-2.5 Ma), intensification of the Walker Circulation (1.9-1.7 Ma), and the Mid-Pleistocene Revolution (1-0.7 Ma). Authors in this volume suggest this onset occurs as high latitude forcing in both Hemispheres compresses the Intertropical Convergence Zone so that East Africa becomes locally sensitive to precessional forcing, resulting in rapid shifts from wet to dry conditions. These periods of extreme climate variability may have provided a catalyst for evolutionary change and driven key speciation and dispersal events amongst mammals and hominins in Africa. In particular, hominin species seem to differentially originate and go extinct during periods of extreme climate variability. Results presented in this volume may represent the basis of a new theory of early human evolution in Africa.

Influence of land-atmosphere feedbacks on temperature and precipitation extremes in the GLACE-CMIP5 ensemble

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lorenz, Ruth; Argüeso, Daniel; Donat, Markus G.; Pitman, Andrew J.; van den Hurk, Bart; Berg, Alexis; Lawrence, David M.; Chéruy, Frédérique; Ducharne, Agnès.; Hagemann, Stefan; Meier, Arndt; Milly, P. C. D.; Seneviratne, Sonia I.

2016-01-01

We examine how soil moisture variability and trends affect the simulation of temperature and precipitation extremes in six global climate models using the experimental protocol of the Global Land-Atmosphere Coupling Experiment of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (GLACE-CMIP5). This protocol enables separate examinations of the influences of soil moisture variability and trends on the intensity, frequency, and duration of climate extremes by the end of the 21st century under a business-as-usual (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5) emission scenario. Removing soil moisture variability significantly reduces temperature extremes over most continental surfaces, while wet precipitation extremes are enhanced in the tropics. Projected drying trends in soil moisture lead to increases in intensity, frequency, and duration of temperature extremes by the end of the 21st century. Wet precipitation extremes are decreased in the tropics with soil moisture trends in the simulations, while dry extremes are enhanced in some regions, in particular the Mediterranean and Australia. However, the ensemble results mask considerable differences in the soil moisture trends simulated by the six climate models. We find that the large differences between the models in soil moisture trends, which are related to an unknown combination of differences in atmospheric forcing (precipitation, net radiation), flux partitioning at the land surface, and how soil moisture is parameterized, imply considerable uncertainty in future changes in climate extremes.

Impacts of climate variability and extreme events on soil hydrological processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramos, M. C.; Mulligan, M.

2003-04-01

The Mediterranean climate (dry subhumid), characterised by a high variability, produces in many situations an insufficient water supply to support stable agriculture. Not only is there insufficient rainfall, but its occurrence is also highly variable between years, during the year, and spatially, during a single rainfall event. One of the main climatic characteristics affecting the vulnerability of the Mediterranean region is the high intensity rainfalls which fall after a very dry summer and the high degree of climatic fluctuation in the short and long term, especially in rainfall quantity. In addition, the rainwater penetration and storage of water in the soil are conditioned by the soil characteristics, in some cases modified by changes in land use and with new management practices. The aim of this study was to evaluate the impact of this high variability, from year to year and through the year, on soil hydrological processes, in fields resulted of the mechanisation works in vineyards in a Mediterranean environment. The PATTERNlight model, a simplified two-dimensional version of the hydrological and growth PATTERN model (Mulligan, 1996) is used here to simulate the water balance for three situations: normal, wet and dry years. Ssignificant differences in soil moisture and recharge were observed under vine culture from year to year, giving rise very often, to critical situations for the development of the crops. The distribution of the rainfall through the year together with the intensity of the recorded rainfalls is much very significant for soil hydrology than the total annual rainfall. Very low soil moisture conditions are raised when spring rainfall is scarce, which contribute to exhaustion of profile soil water over the summer, especially if the antecedent soil moisture is low. This low soil moisture has a significant effect on the development of the vine crop. The simulations of leaf and root biomass carried out with the PATTERNLIGHT model indicate the differences in the development of the leaf biomass between wet and dry conditions, especially with dry springs. Wet conditions favour the development of root and leaf biomass in a significant way. Mulligan, M., 1996. Modelling the hydrology of vegetation competition in a degrade semiarid environment. PhD Theses. Department of Geography, King's College London, University of London.

Trained humans can exercise safely in extreme dry heat when drinking water ad libitum.

PubMed

Nolte, Heinrich W; Noakes, Timothy D; Van Vuuren, Bernard

2011-09-01

Guidelines to establish safe environmental exercise conditions are partly based on thermal prescriptive zones. Yet there are reports of self-paced human athletic performances in extreme heat. Eighteen participants undertook a 25-km route march in a dry bulb temperature reaching 44.3°C. The mean (± s) age of the participants was 26.0 ± 3.7 years. Their mean ad libitum water intake was 1264 ± 229 mL · h(-1). Predicted sweat rate was 1789 ± 267 mL · h(-1). Despite an average body mass loss of 2.73 ± 0.98 kg, plasma osmolality and serum sodium concentration did not change significantly during exercise. Total body water fell 1.47 kg during exercise. However, change in body mass did not accurately predict changes in total body water as a 1:1 ratio. There was a significant relationship (negative slope) between post-exercise serum sodium concentration and changes in both body mass and percent total body water. There was no relationship between percent body mass loss and peak exercise core temperature (39 ± 0.9°C) or exercise time. We conclude that participants maintained plasma osmolality, serum sodium concentration, and safe core temperatures by (1) adopting a pacing strategy, (2) high rates of ad libitum water intake, and (3) by a small reduction in total body water to maintain serum sodium concentration. Our findings support the hypothesis that humans are the mammals with the greatest capacity for exercising in extreme heat.

Monitoring floods and fires during the summer of 2011--The value of the Landsat satellite 40-year archives

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jonescheit, Linda

2012-01-01

The summer of 2011 proved to be a season of extreme events. Heavy snowfall in the western mountains and excessive spring rains caused flooding along the Missouri and Mississippi Rivers; whereas extended dry conditions enabled fires to rage out of control from Alaska and Canada, south to Texas, Arizona, New Mexico, Georgia, and Mexico. The Landsat archive holds nearly 40 years of continuous global earth observation data. Landsat data are used by emergency responders to monitor change and damage caused by natural and man-made disasters. Decision makers rely on Landsat as they create plans for future environmental concerns.

Drought on the Altiplano of Bolivia and Peru: Climate, Paleoclimate, and Society

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baker, P. A.; Fritz, S. C.; Rigsby, C. A.; Li, L.; Capriles, J. M.

2016-12-01

We examine for the first time the economic, social and political consequences of an extreme drought on the Altiplano that persisted from 1935 to 1945, a period of substantial regional social upheaval. We also examine drought in relation to a pre-historic period of great conflict on the Altiplano during the Late Intermediate Period (ca. AD 1000-1450) (Arkush and Tung, 2013). The level of Lake Titicaca has been measured continuously since 1915. The period from 1935 to 1945 was the longest continuously dry period, with falling lake levels, in this record. Prior to 1960 there were few weather stations in the region. Compositing data from three of these stations from the western margin of Lake Titicaca provides a nearly complete precipitation record with values below the long-term annual average observed every year between 1936 and 1947. Here, 1940 was the driest year, far drier than the consequential 1982/3 El Nino drought, with precipitation only 36% of the mean. Farther north at Cuzco, Peru, every year between 1935 and 1944 was at or below the mean. 1938 was the driest year with 38% of the long-term average value of precipitation. The oxygen isotopic composition of the Quelccaya ice cap (Thompson et al., 1984), situated at the northern limit of the Lake Titicaca watershed, is a reliable indicator of regional precipitation amount. Here, d18O values of ice were continuously at or above the mean value (indicating dry conditions) between 1934 and 1944. Taken together, these four records indicate below-average precipitation at all sites in the region for ten consecutive years, 1935-1944. This extreme drought of the last century was just one manifestation of the highly significant (at the 99.8% confidence level) climate variability that has persisted for at least the past 500 years (Melice and Roucou, 1998). This variability is coherent during the instrumental period with tropical North Atlantic SST.

Effect of ambient humidity on the rate at which blood spots dry and the size of the spot produced.

PubMed

Denniff, Philip; Woodford, Lynsey; Spooner, Neil

2013-08-01

For shipping and storage, dried blood spot (DBS) samples must be sufficiently dry to protect the integrity of the sample. When the blood is spotted the humidity has the potential to affect the size of the spot created and the speed at which it dries. The area of DBS produced on three types of substrates were not affected by the humidity under which they were generated. DBS samples reached a steady moisture content 150 min after spotting and 90 min for humidities less than 60% relative humidity. All packaging materials examined provided some degree of protection from external extreme conditions. However, none of the packaging examined provided a total moisture barrier to extreme environmental conditions. Humidity was shown not to affect the spot area and DBS samples were ready for shipping and storage 2 h after spotting. The packing solutions examined all provided good protection from external high humidity conditions.

Adapting to the unpredictable: reproductive biology of vertebrates in the Australian wet-dry tropics.

PubMed

Shine, Richard; Brown, Gregory P

2008-01-27

In the wet-dry tropics of northern Australia, temperatures are high and stable year-round but monsoonal rainfall is highly seasonal and variable both annually and spatially. Many features of reproduction in vertebrates of this region may be adaptations to dealing with this unpredictable variation in precipitation, notably by (i) using direct proximate (rainfall-affected) cues to synchronize the timing and extent of breeding with rainfall events, (ii) placing the eggs or offspring in conditions where they will be buffered from rainfall extremes, and (iii) evolving developmental plasticity, such that the timing and trajectory of embryonic differentiation flexibly respond to local conditions. For example, organisms as diverse as snakes (Liasis fuscus, Acrochordus arafurae), crocodiles (Crocodylus porosus), birds (Anseranas semipalmata) and wallabies (Macropus agilis) show extreme annual variation in reproductive rates, linked to stochastic variation in wet season rainfall. The seasonal timing of initiation and cessation of breeding in snakes (Tropidonophis mairii) and rats (Rattus colletti) also varies among years, depending upon precipitation. An alternative adaptive route is to buffer the effects of rainfall variability on offspring by parental care (including viviparity) or by judicious selection of nest sites in oviparous taxa without parental care. A third type of adaptive response involves flexible embryonic responses (including embryonic diapause, facultative hatching and temperature-dependent sex determination) to incubation conditions, as seen in squamates, crocodilians and turtles. Such flexibility fine-tunes developmental rates and trajectories to conditions--especially, rainfall patterns--that are not predictable at the time of oviposition.

Do older adults experience greater thermal strain during heat waves?

PubMed

Stapleton, Jill M; Larose, Joanie; Simpson, Christina; Flouris, Andreas D; Sigal, Ronald J; Kenny, Glen P

2014-03-01

Heat waves are the cause of many preventable deaths around the world, especially among older adults and in countries with more temperate climates. In the present study, we examined the effects of age on whole-body heat loss and heat storage during passive exposure to environmental conditions representative of the upper temperature extremes experienced in Canada. Direct and indirect calorimetry measured whole-body evaporative heat loss and dry heat exchange, as well as the change in body heat content. Twelve younger (21 ± 3 years) and 12 older (65 ± 5 years) adults with similar body weight (younger: 72.0 ± 4.4 kg; older: 80.1 ± 4.2 kg) and body surface area (younger: 1.8 ± 0.1 m(2); older: 2.0 ± 0.1 m(2)) rested for 2 h in a hot-dry [36.5 °C, 20% relative humidity (RH)] or hot-humid (36.5 °C, 60% RH) environment. In both conditions, evaporative heat loss was not significantly different between groups (dry: p = 0.758; humid: p = 0.814). However, the rate of dry heat gain was significantly greater (by approx. 10 W) for older adults relative to younger adults during the hot-dry (p = 0.032) and hot-humid exposure (p = 0.019). Consequently, the cumulative change in body heat content after 2 h of rest was significantly greater in older adults in the hot-dry (older: 212 ± 25 kJ; younger: 131 ± 27 kJ, p = 0.018) as well as the hot-humid condition (older: 426 ± 37 kJ; younger: 317 ± 45 kJ, p = 0.037). These findings demonstrate that older individuals store more heat during short exposures to dry and humid heat, suggesting that they may experience increased levels of thermal strain in such conditions than people of younger age.

Increased Frequency of Large Blowdown Formation in Years With Hotter Dry Seasons in the Northwestern Amazon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rifai, S. W.; Anderson, L. O.; Bohlman, S.

2015-12-01

Blowdowns, which are large tree mortality events caused by downbursts, create large pulses of carbon emissions in the short term and alter successional dynamics and species composition of forests, thus affecting long term biogeochemical cycling of tropical forests. Changing climate, especially increasing temperatures and frequency of extreme climate events, may cause changes in the frequency of blowdowns, but there has been little spatiotemporal analysis to associate the interannual variation in the frequency of blowdowns with annual climate parameters. We mapped blowdowns greater than 25 ha using a time series of Landsat images from 1984-2012 in the northwestern Amazon to estimate the annual size distribution of these blowdowns. The difference in forest area affected by blowdowns between the years with the highest and lowest blowdown activity were on the order of 10 - 30 times greater depending on location. Spatially, we found the probability of large blowdowns to be higher in regions with higher annual rainfall. Temporally, we found a positive correlation between the probability of large blowdown events and maximum dry season air temperature (R2 = 0.1-0.46). Mean and maximum blowdown size also increased with maximum dry season air temperature. The strength of these relationships varied between scene locations which may be related to cloud cover obscuring the land surface in the satellite images, or biophysical characteristics of the sites. Potentially, elevated dry season temperatures during the transition from the dry season to the wet season (October - December) may exacerbate atmospheric instabilities, which promote downburst occurrences. Most global circulation models predict dry season air temperatures to increase 2-5 ℃ in the northwestern Amazon by 2050. Should the blowdown disturbance regime continue increasing with elevated dry season temperatures, the northwestern Amazon is likely to experience more catastrophic tree mortality events which has direct consequences for both the carbon emissions and carbon storage capacity of the northwestern Amazon.

Extreme precipitation patterns reduced terrestrial ecosystem production across biomass

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Precipitation regimes are predicted to shift to more extreme patterns that are characterized by more intense rainfall events and longer dry intervals, yet their ecological impacts on vegetation production remain uncertain across biomes in natural climatic conditions. This in situ study investigated ...

Trends and Bioclimatic Assessment of Extreme Indices: Emerging Insights for Rainfall Derivative Crop Microinsurance in Central-West Nigeria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Awolala, D. O.

2015-12-01

Scientific predictions have forecasted increasing economic losses by which farming households will be forced to consider new adaptation pathways to close the food gap and be income secure. Pro-poor adaptation planning decisions therefore must rely on location-specific details from systematic assessment of extreme climate indices to provide template for most suitable financial adaptation instruments. This paper examined critical loss point to water stress in maize production and risk-averse behaviour to extreme local climate in Central West Nigeria. Trends of extreme indices and bio-climatic assessment based on RClimDex for numerical weather predictions were carried out using a 3-decade time series daily observational climate data of the sub-humid region. The study reveals that the flowering and seed formation stage was identified as the most critical loss point when seed formation is a function of per unit soil water available for uptake. The sub-humid has a bi-modal rainfall pattern but faces longer dry spell with a fast disappearing mild climate measured by budyko evaporation of 80.1%. Radiation index of dryness of 1.394 confirms the region is rapidly becoming drier at an evaporation rate of 949 mm/year and rainfall deficit of 366 mm/year. Net primary production from rainfall is fast declining by 1634 g(DM)/m2/year. These conditions influenced by monthly rainfall uncertainties are associated with losses of standing crops because farmers are uncertain of rainfall probability distribution especially during most important vegetative stage. In a simulated warmer climate, an absolute dryness of months was observed compared with 4 dry months in a normal climate which explains triggers of food deficits and income losses. Positive coefficients of tropical nights (TR20), warm nights (TN90P) and warm days (TX90P), and the negative coefficient of cold days (TX10P) with time are significant at P<0.05. The increasing gradient of warm spell indicator (WSDI), the decreasing gradients of cold nights (TN10P) and cold days (TX10P) are added evidence of aridity arising from increasing rainfall deficits. This paper recommends that the region needs rainfall-based index microinsurance adaptation financial instruments capable of sharing covariate shocks with farmers within an incentive-based risk sharing framework.

[Epidemiological investigation of chewing fresh or dried betel nut and oral mucosal disease].

PubMed

Yongxiu, Du; Dongye, Sun; Xinchun, Jian; Qiuhua, Mao; Yanan, Cheng; Pu, Xu

2016-08-01

This study was conducted to investigate the effect of chewing fresh or dried betel nut on the inci-dence and canceration of oral mucosa disease in Haikou City in Hainan Province. Through a survey questionnaire, clinical examination, and regular follow-up, we collected clinical data from 1 722 cases and divided them into two groups, among which 704 of the afflicted people chew dried betel nut, whereas the other 1 018 chew fresh betel nut. The data were 
statistically analyzed using different variables which included age, number, time of onset of the disease, and the cancerous condition associated with common oral mucosa disease, including oral submucous fibrosis (OSF), oral leukoplakia (OLK), and oral Lichen planus (OLP). 1) The study found no significant difference in the prevalence of oral mucosa diseases between the dried betel nut group (n=704) and fresh betel nut group (n=1 018) among the 1 722 cases (P>0.05), but the peak age of oral mucosal disease was more advanced in the dried betel nut group (P<0.01). 2) The incidence within 5 years of OSF, OLK, OLP, and oral mucosa diseases in the dried betel nut group was significantly higher than that in the fresh betel nut group (P<0.01). 3) The incidence of cancer for oral mucosa disease in patients included in the dried betel nut group was significantly higher than that in the fresh betel nut group (P<0.01). Chewing dried betel nut is more pathogenic and carcinogenic than chewing fresh betel nut. The extremely harmful components of the dried betel nut synergistically play a vital role in the occurrence and carcinogenesis of oral mucosal diseases.

Record dry summer in 2015 challenges precipitation projections in Central Europe.

PubMed

Orth, René; Zscheischler, Jakob; Seneviratne, Sonia I

2016-06-21

Central Europe was characterized by a humid-temperate climate in the 20(th) century. Climate change projections suggest that climate in this area will shift towards warmer temperatures by the end of the 21(st) century, while projected precipitation changes are highly uncertain. Here we show that the 2015 summer rainfall was the lowest on record since 1901 in Central Europe, and that climate models that perform best in the three driest years of the historical time period 1901-2015 project stronger drying trends in the 21(st) century than models that perform best in the remaining years. Analyses of precipitation and derived soil moisture reveal that the 2015 event was drier than both the recent 2003 or 2010 extreme summers in Central Europe. Additionally there are large anomalies in satellite-derived vegetation greenness. In terms of precipitation and temperature anomalies, the 2015 summer in Central Europe is found to lie between historical climate in the region and that characteristic of the Mediterranean area. Even though the models best capturing past droughts are not necessarily generally more reliable in the future, the 2015 drought event illustrates that potential future drying trends have severe implications and could be stronger than commonly assumed from the entire IPCC AR5 model ensemble.

Methamphetamine and amphetamine concentrations in postmortem rabbit tissues.

PubMed

Nagata, T; Kimura, K; Hara, K; Kudo, K

1990-11-01

The feasibility of detecting methamphetamine and its major metabolite, amphetamine, in postmortem tissues over a 2-year period was examined. It is important to determine if the abuse and toxic effects of drugs can be proved from evidence found in decayed, submerged, or stained tissue materials. The blood, urine, liver, skeletal muscle, skin and extremity bones from rabbits given methamphetamine intravenously were kept at room temperature, under 4 different conditions: sealed in a test tube, dried in the open air, submerged in tap water and stained on gauze. Methamphetamine was present in all the samples, with slight change in concentration in case of sealed and air dried tissues. Changes varied in bones kept in water. There were considerable decreases in methamphetamine in blood and urine stains. Despite long term storage, drug abuse and/or toxicity could be determined, in all tissues examined.

Extreme decay of meteoric beryllium-10 as a proxy for persistent aridity.

PubMed

Valletta, Rachel D; Willenbring, Jane K; Lewis, Adam R; Ashworth, Allan C; Caffee, Marc

2015-12-09

The modern Antarctic Dry Valleys are locked in a hyper-arid, polar climate that enables the East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS) to remain stable, frozen to underlying bedrock. The duration of these dry, cold conditions is a critical prerequisite when modeling the long-term mass balance of the EAIS during past warm climates and is best examined using terrestrial paleoclimatic proxies. Unfortunately, deposits containing such proxies are extremely rare and often difficult to date. Here, we apply a unique dating approach to tundra deposits using concentrations of meteoric beryllium-10 ((10)Be) adhered to paleolake sediments from the Friis Hills, central Dry Valleys. We show that lake sediments were emplaced between 14-17.5 My and have remained untouched by meteoric waters since that time. Our results support the notion that the onset of Dry Valleys aridification occurred ~14 My, precluding the possibility of EAIS collapse during Pliocene warming events. Lake fossils indicate that >14 My ago the Dry Valleys hosted a moist tundra that flourished in elevated atmospheric CO2 (>400 ppm). Thus, Dry Valleys tundra deposits record regional climatic transitions that affect EAIS mass balance, and, in a global paleoclimatic context, these deposits demonstrate how warming induced by 400 ppm CO2 manifests at high latitudes.

Extreme decay of meteoric beryllium-10 as a proxy for persistent aridity

PubMed Central

Valletta, Rachel D.; Willenbring, Jane K.; Lewis, Adam R.; Ashworth, Allan C.; Caffee, Marc

2015-01-01

The modern Antarctic Dry Valleys are locked in a hyper-arid, polar climate that enables the East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS) to remain stable, frozen to underlying bedrock. The duration of these dry, cold conditions is a critical prerequisite when modeling the long-term mass balance of the EAIS during past warm climates and is best examined using terrestrial paleoclimatic proxies. Unfortunately, deposits containing such proxies are extremely rare and often difficult to date. Here, we apply a unique dating approach to tundra deposits using concentrations of meteoric beryllium-10 (10Be) adhered to paleolake sediments from the Friis Hills, central Dry Valleys. We show that lake sediments were emplaced between 14–17.5 My and have remained untouched by meteoric waters since that time. Our results support the notion that the onset of Dry Valleys aridification occurred ~14 My, precluding the possibility of EAIS collapse during Pliocene warming events. Lake fossils indicate that >14 My ago the Dry Valleys hosted a moist tundra that flourished in elevated atmospheric CO2 (>400 ppm). Thus, Dry Valleys tundra deposits record regional climatic transitions that affect EAIS mass balance, and, in a global paleoclimatic context, these deposits demonstrate how warming induced by 400 ppm CO2 manifests at high latitudes. PMID:26647733

Drought sensitivity of Amazonian carbon balance revealed by atmospheric measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gatti, L. V.; Gloor, M.; Miller, J. B.; Doughty, C. E.; Malhi, Y.; Domingues, L. G.; Basso, L. S.; Martinewski, A.; Correia, C. S. C.; Borges, V. F.; Freitas, S.; Braz, R.; Anderson, L. O.; Rocha, H.; Grace, J.; Phillips, O. L.; Lloyd, J.

2014-02-01

Feedbacks between land carbon pools and climate provide one of the largest sources of uncertainty in our predictions of global climate. Estimates of the sensitivity of the terrestrial carbon budget to climate anomalies in the tropics and the identification of the mechanisms responsible for feedback effects remain uncertain. The Amazon basin stores a vast amount of carbon, and has experienced increasingly higher temperatures and more frequent floods and droughts over the past two decades. Here we report seasonal and annual carbon balances across the Amazon basin, based on carbon dioxide and carbon monoxide measurements for the anomalously dry and wet years 2010 and 2011, respectively. We find that the Amazon basin lost 0.48+/-0.18 petagrams of carbon per year (PgCyr-1) during the dry year but was carbon neutral (0.06+/-0.1PgCyr-1) during the wet year. Taking into account carbon losses from fire by using carbon monoxide measurements, we derived the basin net biome exchange (that is, the carbon flux between the non-burned forest and the atmosphere) revealing that during the dry year, vegetation was carbon neutral. During the wet year, vegetation was a net carbon sink of 0.25+/-0.14PgCyr-1, which is roughly consistent with the mean long-term intact-forest biomass sink of 0.39+/-0.10PgCyr-1 previously estimated from forest censuses. Observations from Amazonian forest plots suggest the suppression of photosynthesis during drought as the primary cause for the 2010 sink neutralization. Overall, our results suggest that moisture has an important role in determining the Amazonian carbon balance. If the recent trend of increasing precipitation extremes persists, the Amazon may become an increasing carbon source as a result of both emissions from fires and the suppression of net biome exchange by drought.

The paleoclimate context and future trajectory of extreme summer hydroclimate in eastern Australia.

PubMed

Cook, Benjamin I; Palmer, Jonathan G; Cook, Edward R; Turney, Chris S M; Allen, Kathryn; Fenwick, Pavla; O'Donnell, Alison; Lough, Janice M; Grierson, Pauline F; Ho, Michelle; Baker, Patrick J

2016-11-16

Eastern Australia recently experienced an intense drought (Millennium Drought, 2003-2009) and record-breaking rainfall and flooding (austral summer 2010-2011). There is some limited evidence for a climate change contribution to these events, but such analyses are hampered by the paucity of information on long-term natural variability. Analyzing a new reconstruction of summer (December-January-February) Palmer Drought Severity Index (the Australia-New Zealand Drought Atlas; ANZDA, 1500-2012 CE), we find moisture deficits during the Millennium Drought fall within the range of the last 500 years of natural hydroclimate variability. This variability includes periods of multi-decadal drought in the 1500s more persistent than any event in the historical record. However, the severity of the Millennium Drought, which was caused by autumn (March-April-May) precipitation declines, may be underestimated in the ANZDA because the reconstruction is biased towards summer and antecedent spring (September-October-November) precipitation. The pluvial in 2011, however, which was characterized by extreme summer rainfall faithfully captured by the ANZDA, is likely the wettest year in the reconstruction for Coastal Queensland. Climate projections (RCP 8.5 scenario) suggest that eastern Australia will experience long-term drying during the 21 st century. While the contribution of anthropogenic forcing to recent extremes remains an open question, these projections indicate an amplified risk of multi-year drought anomalies matching or exceeding the intensity of the Millennium Drought.

Influence of land-atmosphere feedbacks on temperature and precipitation extremes in the GLACE-CMIP5 ensemble

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lorenz, Ruth; Argueso, Daniel; Donat, Markus G.; Pitman, Andrew J.; van den Hurk, Bart; Berg, Alexis; Lawrence, David M.; Cheruy, Frederique; Ducharne, Agnes; Hagemann, Stefan; Meier, Arndt; Milly, Paul C.D.; Seneviratne, Sonia I

2016-01-01

We examine how soil moisture variability and trends affect the simulation of temperature and precipitation extremes in six global climate models using the experimental protocol of the Global Land-Atmosphere Coupling Experiment of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (GLACE-CMIP5). This protocol enables separate examinations of the influences of soil moisture variability and trends on the intensity, frequency, and duration of climate extremes by the end of the 21st century under a business-as-usual (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5) emission scenario. Removing soil moisture variability significantly reduces temperature extremes over most continental surfaces, while wet precipitation extremes are enhanced in the tropics. Projected drying trends in soil moisture lead to increases in intensity, frequency, and duration of temperature extremes by the end of the 21st century. Wet precipitation extremes are decreased in the tropics with soil moisture trends in the simulations, while dry extremes are enhanced in some regions, in particular the Mediterranean and Australia. However, the ensemble results mask considerable differences in the soil moisture trends simulated by the six climate models. We find that the large differences between the models in soil moisture trends, which are related to an unknown combination of differences in atmospheric forcing (precipitation, net radiation), flux partitioning at the land surface, and how soil moisture is parameterized, imply considerable uncertainty in future changes in climate extremes.

Quantifying the influence of global warming on unprecedented extreme climate events

PubMed Central

Singh, Deepti; Horton, Daniel E.; Swain, Daniel L.; Touma, Danielle; Charland, Allison; Liu, Yunjie; Haugen, Matz; Tsiang, Michael; Rajaratnam, Bala

2017-01-01

Efforts to understand the influence of historical global warming on individual extreme climate events have increased over the past decade. However, despite substantial progress, events that are unprecedented in the local observational record remain a persistent challenge. Leveraging observations and a large climate model ensemble, we quantify uncertainty in the influence of global warming on the severity and probability of the historically hottest month, hottest day, driest year, and wettest 5-d period for different areas of the globe. We find that historical warming has increased the severity and probability of the hottest month and hottest day of the year at >80% of the available observational area. Our framework also suggests that the historical climate forcing has increased the probability of the driest year and wettest 5-d period at 57% and 41% of the observed area, respectively, although we note important caveats. For the most protracted hot and dry events, the strongest and most widespread contributions of anthropogenic climate forcing occur in the tropics, including increases in probability of at least a factor of 4 for the hottest month and at least a factor of 2 for the driest year. We also demonstrate the ability of our framework to systematically evaluate the role of dynamic and thermodynamic factors such as atmospheric circulation patterns and atmospheric water vapor, and find extremely high statistical confidence that anthropogenic forcing increased the probability of record-low Arctic sea ice extent. PMID:28439005

Quantifying the influence of global warming on unprecedented extreme climate events.

PubMed

Diffenbaugh, Noah S; Singh, Deepti; Mankin, Justin S; Horton, Daniel E; Swain, Daniel L; Touma, Danielle; Charland, Allison; Liu, Yunjie; Haugen, Matz; Tsiang, Michael; Rajaratnam, Bala

2017-05-09

Efforts to understand the influence of historical global warming on individual extreme climate events have increased over the past decade. However, despite substantial progress, events that are unprecedented in the local observational record remain a persistent challenge. Leveraging observations and a large climate model ensemble, we quantify uncertainty in the influence of global warming on the severity and probability of the historically hottest month, hottest day, driest year, and wettest 5-d period for different areas of the globe. We find that historical warming has increased the severity and probability of the hottest month and hottest day of the year at >80% of the available observational area. Our framework also suggests that the historical climate forcing has increased the probability of the driest year and wettest 5-d period at 57% and 41% of the observed area, respectively, although we note important caveats. For the most protracted hot and dry events, the strongest and most widespread contributions of anthropogenic climate forcing occur in the tropics, including increases in probability of at least a factor of 4 for the hottest month and at least a factor of 2 for the driest year. We also demonstrate the ability of our framework to systematically evaluate the role of dynamic and thermodynamic factors such as atmospheric circulation patterns and atmospheric water vapor, and find extremely high statistical confidence that anthropogenic forcing increased the probability of record-low Arctic sea ice extent.

Quantifying the Influence of Global Warming on Unprecedented Extreme Climate Events

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Diffenbaugh, Noah S.; Singh, Deepti; Mankin, Justin S.; Horton, Daniel E.; Swain, Daniel L.; Touma, Danielle; Charland, Allison; Liu, Yunjie; Haugen, Matz; Tsiang, Michael;

Evaluation of different types of dry-cured ham by Italian and French consumers.

PubMed

Cannata, S; Ratti, S; Meteau, K; Mourot, J; Baldini, P; Corino, C

2010-04-01

The aim was to analyse the distribution of preferences between two group of consumers (100 consumers each) from different countries (Italy and France), in order to establish which type of dry-cured ham is most acceptable and to compare results across countries using preference mapping. A preference test was carried out on four types of dry-cured hams: Parma ham (P), Italian non-branded ham (I) and hams derived from pigs fed a diet containing sunflower oil (2.5%) (S) or extruded linseed (5%) (L). The consumers were requested to evaluate each single descriptor using a hedonic scale and assigning a score between 1 (dislike extremely) and 9 (like extremely). The four different dry-cured hams were sensorially well differentiated by the consumers of different nationalities. Italian consumers preferred P and S hams while French consumers preferred S, I and P hams in terms of overall acceptability and acceptability of aroma and flavour. L ham was negatively discriminated, compared to the other hams, by both consumer groups. A good differentiation between the dry-cured hams was obtained using the internal preference map method: P was discriminated from the other hams. 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Observed response of vulnerable forest ecosystems to ongoing site condition changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bidló, András; Gulyás, Krisztina; Gálos, Borbála; Horváth, Adrienn

2017-04-01

In the last decades, several symptoms of drought damages have been observed in the Hungarian forests (e.g. sparse canopy, leaf drop, top drying, fungal diseases). Forest responses are also influenced by other factors beyond climate (e.g. available water content, soil conditions, biotic damages, adaptive capacity, etc.). Our aim was to prepare a complex analysis of the change of all site conditions, that could lead to the observed health status decline of the forest tree species. For a case study region in Hungary (Keszthely Mountains, near to Lake Balaton) precipitation and temperature tendencies as well as the frequency of extreme dry summers have been determined for the period 1961-2100. Soil conditions have been investigated in 9 profiles and soil mapping analysis has been carried out including 100 sites with hand soil auger. For the investigation of the water-balance we used the modified Thornthwaite-type monthly model and determined water stress when the relative extractable water (REW) decreased below 40% (Granier et al., 1999). In the last 30 years three severe droughts have been detected when duration of extremely dry and hot periods exceeded 3-4 years. Not only orographic and microclimate conditions but also soil types show a large diversity within a relatively small distance in the case study area. On rendzina with shallow topsoil layer thickness, low water holding capacity, black pine was planted. Brown earth with medium and brown forest soils with deep topsoil layer thickness is favourable for oak (sessile or Turkey) and beech. These microscale differences between the three site condition types resulted different available water contents quantified by the modified Thornthwaite-type monthly water-balance model. Our results show the different sensitivity of the studied sites to water stress. It means that the local scale orographic and soil conditions can enhance the projected drought risk of the region. However, the favourable microclimatic effects of the existing forest stands are still a knowledge gap and the topic of the ongoing research. The research is supported by the "Agroclimate-2" (VKSZ_12-1-2013-0034) joint EU-national research project and by the ÚNKP-16-4-3 New National Excellence Program of the Ministry of Human Capacities. Keywords: climate extremes, changing site conditions, water stress

Hydrological Responses of Weather Conditions and Crop Change of Agricultural Area in the Rincon Valley, New Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahn, S.; Sheng, Z.; Abudu, S.

2017-12-01

Hydrologic cycle of agricultural area has been changing due to the impacts of climate and land use changes (crop coverage changes) in an arid region of Rincon Valley, New Mexico. This study is to evaluate the impacts of weather condition and crop coverage change on hydrologic behavior of agricultural area in Rincon Valley (2,466km2) for agricultural watershed management using a watershed-scale hydrologic model, SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool). The SWAT model was developed to incorporate irrigation of different crops using auto irrigation function. For the weather condition and crop coverage change evaluation, three spatial crop coverages including a normal (2008), wet (2009), and dry (2011) years were prepared using USDA crop data layer (CDL) for fourteen different crops. The SWAT model was calibrated for the period of 2001-2003 and validated for the period of 2004-2006 using daily-observed streamflow data. Scenario analysis was performed for wet and dry years based on the unique combinations of crop coverages and releases from Caballo Reservoir. The SWAT model simulated the present vertical water budget and horizontal water transfer considering irrigation practices in the Rincon Valley. Simulation results indicated the temporal and spatial variability for irrigation and non-irrigation seasons of hydrologic cycle in agricultural area in terms of surface runoff, evapotranspiration, infiltration, percolation, baseflow, soil moisture, and groundwater recharge. The water supply of the dry year could not fully cover whole irrigation period due to dry weather conditions, resulting in reduction of crop acreage. For extreme weather conditions, the temporal variation of water budget became robust, which requires careful irrigation management of the agricultural area. The results could provide guidelines for farmers to decide crop patterns in response to different weather conditions and water availability.

Tree-growth analyses to estimate tree species' drought tolerance.

PubMed

Eilmann, Britta; Rigling, Andreas

2012-02-01

Climate change is challenging forestry management and practices. Among other things, tree species with the ability to cope with more extreme climate conditions have to be identified. However, while environmental factors may severely limit tree growth or even cause tree death, assessing a tree species' potential for surviving future aggravated environmental conditions is rather demanding. The aim of this study was to find a tree-ring-based method suitable for identifying very drought-tolerant species, particularly potential substitute species for Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) in Valais. In this inner-Alpine valley, Scots pine used to be the dominating species for dry forests, but today it suffers from high drought-induced mortality. We investigate the growth response of two native tree species, Scots pine and European larch (Larix decidua Mill.), and two non-native species, black pine (Pinus nigra Arnold) and Douglas fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii Mirb. var. menziesii), to drought. This involved analysing how the radial increment of these species responded to increasing water shortage (abandonment of irrigation) and to increasingly frequent drought years. Black pine and Douglas fir are able to cope with drought better than Scots pine and larch, as they show relatively high radial growth even after irrigation has been stopped and a plastic growth response to drought years. European larch does not seem to be able to cope with these dry conditions as it lacks the ability to recover from drought years. The analysis of trees' short-term response to extreme climate events seems to be the most promising and suitable method for detecting how tolerant a tree species is towards drought. However, combining all the methods used in this study provides a complete picture of how water shortage could limit species.

Sea surface temperature variability in the Gulf of Mexico from 1734-2008 CE: A reconstruction using cross-dated Sr/Ca records from the coral Siderastrea siderea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

DeLong, K. L.; Flannery, J. A.; Quinn, T. M.; Maupin, C. R.; Lin, K.; Shen, C.

2013-12-01

Sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the Gulf of Mexico impacts climate in Central and North America because the Gulf is a major source of moisture and is a source region for the Gulf Stream, which transports ocean heat northward. Here we use skeletal variations in coral Sr/Ca from three Siderastrea siderea coral colonies within the Dry Tortugas National Park in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico (24°42'N, 82°48'W) to develop 274 years of monthly-resolved SST variations. The cross-dated chronology, determined by counting annual density bands and correlating Sr/Ca variations, is verified by four replicated high precision 230Th dates (×1.7-37 years, 2σ). Calibration and verification of our replicated coral Sr/Ca-SST reconstruction with Dry Tortugas SST (r = 0.98 and 0.55 for monthly and 36-month smoothed, respectively; 1992-2008 CE) and Key West, Florida surface air temperature (1895-2008 CE) measurements reveals similar covariance (r = 0.96 and 0.56 for monthly and 36-month smoothed, respectively). The absolute coral SST reconstruction is consistent with SST recorded at the Dry Tortugas lighthouse from 1879-1907 CE indicating that this coral Sr/Ca-SST relationship is stable on centennial time scales. The Sr/Ca-SST reconstruction reveals ~2.0°C interannual variability, ~1.5°C decadal fluctuations, and a 0.7°C warming trend for the past 274 years. Secular variability in our reconstruction is similar to approximately decadally resolved planktic foraminifer Mg/Ca records from the northern Gulf of Mexico. The coral Sr/Ca-SST reconstruction reveals colder decades (~1.5°C) suggesting a reduction in moisture and ocean heat flux from the Gulf of Mexico. We find winter extremes are more variable than summer extremes (×2.2°C vs. ×1.6°C, 2σ) with a stronger warming trend (1°C) in the summers suggesting continued warming may increase coral bleaching.

Trait-specific responses of Scots pine to irrigation on a short vs long time scale.

PubMed

Feichtinger, Linda M; Eilmann, Britta; Buchmann, Nina; Rigling, Andreas

2015-02-01

In xeric environments, an increase in drought is related to reduced forest productivity and to enhanced mortality. However, predictions of future forest development remain difficult as the mechanisms underlying the responses of mature trees to long-term variations in water availability are not well understood. Here, we aimed to compare the adjustments in radial growth and morphological needle and shoot traits of mature Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) growing along open water channels with those of control trees growing under naturally dry conditions at three sites in Valais, an inner-Alpine dry valley of Switzerland. The trees growing along two channels had been irrigated since germination (>70 years), whereas those along another previously drained channel had been irrigated only from 2010 to 2012, when the channel was re-established, and could thus be used to quantify the short-term effects of re-irrigation. Linear mixed models revealed that needle and shoot lengths as well as early- and late-wood basal area increments (BAIs) were most responsive to short-term and long-term irrigation. However, the magnitude of the response to the short-term irrigation exceeded that of the long-term irrigation. An extreme drought during the first half of 2011 led to an immediate decrease in the needle length, needle width, and early- and late-wood BAIs of the control trees, whereas the shoot length and needle numbers of control trees reacted with a 1-year delay to the extreme drought, as the shoots were responding to water availability of previous year's summer. Such negative responses to dry climatic conditions were even found in irrigated trees at one of our sites, which might be linked to tree growth becoming more sensitive to drought with increasing tree height and leaf area. In order to improve predictions of future forest development, long-term studies are necessary that consider lagged responses and adjustment processes of trees to changes in water availability. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Simulation of fluid flow and energy transport processes associated with high-level radioactive waste disposal in unsaturated alluvium

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pollock, David W.

1986-01-01

Many parts of the Great Basin have thick zones of unsaturated alluvium which might be suitable for disposing of high-level radioactive wastes. A mathematical model accounting for the coupled transport of energy, water (vapor and liquid), and dry air was used to analyze one-dimensional, vertical transport above and below an areally extensive repository. Numerical simulations were conducted for a hypothetical repository containing spent nuclear fuel and located 100 m below land surface. Initial steady state downward water fluxes of zero (hydrostatic) and 0.0003 m yr−1were considered in an attempt to bracket the likely range in natural water flux. Predicted temperatures within the repository peaked after approximately 50 years and declined slowly thereafter in response to the decreasing intensity of the radioactive heat source. The alluvium near the repository experienced a cycle of drying and rewetting in both cases. The extent of the dry zone was strongly controlled by the mobility of liquid water near the repository under natural conditions. In the case of initial hydrostatic conditions, the dry zone extended approximately 10 m above and 15 m below the repository. For the case of a natural flux of 0.0003 m yr−1 the relative permeability of water near the repository was initially more than 30 times the value under hydrostatic conditions, consequently the dry zone extended only about 2 m above and 5 m below the repository. In both cases a significant perturbation in liquid saturation levels persisted for several hundred years. This analysis illustrates the extreme sensitivity of model predictions to initial conditions and parameters, such as relative permeability and moisture characteristic curves, that are often poorly known.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Thiery, Wim; Davin, Edouard L.; Lawrence, David M.

Irrigation is an essential practice for sustaining global food production and many regional economies. Emerging scientific evidence indicates that irrigation substantially affects mean climate conditions in different regions of the world. Yet how this practice influences climate extremes is currently unknown. Here we use ensemble simulations with the Community Earth System Model to assess the impacts of irrigation on climate extremes. An evaluation of the model performance reveals that irrigation has a small yet overall beneficial effect on the representation of present-day near-surface climate. While the influence of irrigation on annual mean temperatures is limited, we find a large impactmore » on temperature extremes, with a particularly strong cooling during the hottest day of the year (-0.78 K averaged over irrigated land). The strong influence on extremes stems from the timing of irrigation and its influence on land-atmosphere coupling strength. Together these effects result in asymmetric temperature responses, with a more pronounced cooling during hot and/or dry periods. The influence of irrigation is even more pronounced when considering subgrid-scale model output, suggesting that local effects of land management are far more important than previously thought. In conclusion, our results underline that irrigation has substantially reduced our exposure to hot temperature extremes in the past and highlight the need to account for irrigation in future climate projections.« less

Caatinga revisited: ecology and conservation of an important seasonal dry forest.

PubMed

de Albuquerque, Ulysses Paulino; de Lima Araújo, Elcida; El-Deir, Ana Carla Asfora; de Lima, André Luiz Alves; Souto, Antonio; Bezerra, Bruna Martins; Ferraz, Elba Maria Nogueira; Maria Xavier Freire, Eliza; Sampaio, Everardo Valadares de Sá Barreto; Las-Casas, Flor Maria Guedes; de Moura, Geraldo Jorge Barbosa; Pereira, Glauco Alves; de Melo, Joabe Gomes; Alves Ramos, Marcelo; Rodal, Maria Jesus Nogueira; Schiel, Nicola; de Lyra-Neves, Rachel Maria; Alves, Rômulo Romeu Nóbrega; de Azevedo-Júnior, Severino Mendes; Telino Júnior, Wallace Rodrigues; Severi, William

2012-01-01

Besides its extreme climate conditions, the Caatinga (a type of tropical seasonal forest) hosts an impressive faunal and floristic biodiversity. In the last 50 years there has been a considerable increase in the number of studies in the area. Here we aimed to present a review of these studies, focusing on four main fields: vertebrate ecology, plant ecology, human ecology, and ethnobiology. Furthermore, we identify directions for future research. We hope that the present paper will help defining actions and strategies for the conservation of the biological diversity of the Caatinga.

Preliminary report on radiocarbon dating of cryptoendolithic microorganisms

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bonani, G.; Friedmann, E. I.; Ocampo-Friedmann, R.; McKay, C. P.; Woelfli, W.

1988-01-01

The existence of microbial communities living inside desert rocks has been reported by FRIEDMANN et al. (1967, 1976), first in rocks collected from the hot and dry Negev desert and later in rocks in the frigid Ross Desert of Southern Victoria Land, Antarctica. The extremely inhospitable climatic conditions in both places has led to the suggestion that these organisms have very low rates of metabolism and may, in addition, be very old (FRIEDMANN 1982). Our preliminary measurements showed a 14C deficiency indicating a carbon age in the order of magnitude of 10(3) years.

Present-day irrigation mitigates heat extremes

DOE PAGES

Thiery, Wim; Davin, Edouard L.; Lawrence, David M.; ...

2017-02-16

Irrigation is an essential practice for sustaining global food production and many regional economies. Emerging scientific evidence indicates that irrigation substantially affects mean climate conditions in different regions of the world. Yet how this practice influences climate extremes is currently unknown. Here we use ensemble simulations with the Community Earth System Model to assess the impacts of irrigation on climate extremes. An evaluation of the model performance reveals that irrigation has a small yet overall beneficial effect on the representation of present-day near-surface climate. While the influence of irrigation on annual mean temperatures is limited, we find a large impactmore » on temperature extremes, with a particularly strong cooling during the hottest day of the year (-0.78 K averaged over irrigated land). The strong influence on extremes stems from the timing of irrigation and its influence on land-atmosphere coupling strength. Together these effects result in asymmetric temperature responses, with a more pronounced cooling during hot and/or dry periods. The influence of irrigation is even more pronounced when considering subgrid-scale model output, suggesting that local effects of land management are far more important than previously thought. In conclusion, our results underline that irrigation has substantially reduced our exposure to hot temperature extremes in the past and highlight the need to account for irrigation in future climate projections.« less

Salt-losing nephropathy in hypothyroidism.

PubMed

Bautista, Aileen Azul; Duya, Jose Eduardo De Leon; Sandoval, Mark Anthony Santiago

2014-05-21

A 35-year-old man presented with recurrent lower extremity weakness associated with polyuria later progressing to generalised weakness with difficulty in breathing. The patient was hypotensive and dry, with normal thyroid and chest examination, weak lower extremity and carpopedal spasm. Workup revealed hypokalaemia, hyponatraemia, hypocalcaemia, hypomagnesaemia, hypochloraemia and hypophosphataemia. Arterial blood gas showed respiratory alkalosis with good oxygenation. Twenty-four-hour urine collection showed normal volume with electrolyte wasting. Thyroid function test revealed overt hypothyroidism with negative antithyroid peroxidase. The patient was well after treatment with levothyroxine, volume and electrolyte replacement and was discharged. Thyroid hormones are related to the expression of the Na-K-ATPase, Na-Pi cotransporter, Mg-ATPase and Na-Ca exchanger pumps in the renal tubules. Sodium, potassium, phosphate, calcium, magnesium and water losses result from decreased expression of these pumps. 2014 BMJ Publishing Group Ltd.

The impact of the gulf war on the Arabian environment—I. Particulate pollution and reduction of solar irradiance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

El-Shobokshy, Mohammad S.; Al-Saedi, Yaseen G.

This paper investigates some of the air pollution problems which have been created as a result of the Gulf war in early 1991. Temporary periods of increased dust storm activity have been observed in Saudi Arabia. This is presumably due to disturbance of the desert surface by the extremely large number of tanks and other war machines before and during the war. The concentrations of inhalable dust particles (<15 μm) increased during the months just after the war by a factor of about 1.5 of their values during the same months of the previous year, 1990. The total horizontal solar energy flux in Riyadh has been significantly reduced during dry days with no clouds. This is attributed to the presence of soot particles, which have been generated at an extremely high rate from the fired oil fields in Kuwait. The direct normal solar insolation were also measured at the photovoltaic solar power plant in Riyadh during these days and significant reductions were observed due to the effective absorption of solar radiation by soot particles. The generated power from the plant has been reduced during days with a polluted atmosphere by about 50-80% of the expected value for such days, if the atmosphere were dry and clear.

Predicting Extreme Droughts in Savannah Africa: A Comparison of Proxy and Direct Measures in Detecting Biomass Fluctuations, Trends and Their Causes

PubMed Central

2015-01-01

We monitored pasture biomass on 20 permanent plots over 35 years to gauge the reliability of rainfall and NDVI as proxy measures of forage shortfalls in a savannah ecosystem. Both proxies are reliable indicators of pasture biomass at the onset of dry periods but fail to predict shortfalls in prolonged dry spells. In contrast, grazing pressure predicts pasture deficits with a high degree of accuracy. Large herbivores play a primary role in determining the severity of pasture deficits and variation across habitats. Grazing pressure also explains oscillations in plant biomass unrelated to rainfall. Plant biomass has declined steadily and biomass per unit of rainfall has fallen by a third, corresponding to a doubling in grazing intensity over the study period. The rising probability of forage deficits fits local pastoral perceptions of an increasing frequency of extreme shortfalls. The decline in forage is linked to sedentarization, range loss and herbivore compression into drought refuges, rather than climate change. The results show that the decline in rangeland productivity and increasing frequency of pasture shortfalls can be ameliorated by better husbandry practices and reinforces the need for ground monitoring to complement remote sensing in forecasting pasture shortfalls. PMID:26317512

The Age of Terrestrial Carbon Export and Rainfall Intensity in a Temperate River Headwater System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tittel, J.; Büttner, O.; Freier, K.; Heiser, A.; Sudbrack, R.; Ollesch, G.

2013-12-01

Riverine dissolved organic carbon (DOC) supports the production of estuaries and coastal ecosystems, constituting one of the most actively recycled pools of the global carbon cycle. A substantial proportion of DOC entering oceans is highly aged, but its origins remain unclear. Significant fluxes of old DOC have never been observed in temperate headwaters where terrestrial imports take place. Here, we studied the radiocarbon age of DOC in three streams draining forested headwater catchments of the river Mulde (Ore Mountains, Germany). We found modern DOC at moderately dry and moderately wet conditions as well as at high discharges during snowmelt. Old groundwater carbon contributed to stream DOC during the summer drought, although the yield was negligible. However, in a four-week summer precipitation event DOC aged at between 160 and 270 years was delivered into the watershed. In one stream, the DOC was modern but depleted in radiocarbon compared to other hydrological conditions. The yield was substantial and corresponded to 20 to 52% of the annual DOC yields in wet and dry years, respectively. Time-integrating samples of a downstream reservoir also revealed modern DOC ages under moderate conditions and old DOC from the rainfall event. Earlier studies suggested that increasing precipitation escalates the contribution of modern DOC from topsoil layers to surface runoff. Our results demonstrate a step change occurring if rainfall intensities increase and become extreme; then the consequences lead to the mobilization of old carbon in exceptionally high concentrations. The runoff/precipitation ratios of rainfall events indicated that during extreme events upland areas of the catchments were hydrologically connected to the stream and upland DOC was activated. Furthermore, the analysis of long-term data suggested that the DOC export in extreme precipitation events added to the annual yield and was not compensated for by lower exports in remaining periods. We conclude that climate change, along with additional processes associated with human activities, channels old soil carbon into more rapidly cycled carbon pools of the hydrosphere.

Impact of climatic extremity upon human health

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Miah, M.A.; Samad, M.A.

The extreme climate generated in the wake of the shortage of the supply of natural water in the lower Ganges basin has triggered a number of environmental diseases in the lower Ganges basin. In the wake of improper sanitation conditions for the scarcity of water, water-borne diseases like cholera, diarrhea, hepatitis, etc., break out and take out the lives of victims. Further, the development of the dry climate has favored an increased amount of suspended particulate matter in the air. The result is the prevalent problem of asthma which is even worse than the water-borne diseases. Almost one in everymore » four families living in this city has an asthma patient. The worst is that more than 10% of the families have three asthma patients. And, most of the elderly asthma patients suffer from diabetes and high blood pressure at the same time. The wide spread of asthma is thought to be related to the triggering allergic action suffered by patients due to the presence of excess particulate matter in the air. More than 50% of the population suffer from nasal allergy, sinusitis, and chronic bronchitis. The suspended particles are mostly fine grains of sands and carbon. The cleanest air (usually, after a heavy rainfall) contains at least one gm of particulate matter in every 2,039 cubic meter of air. An average man will inhale about 1.11 million gallons of air per year which amounts to about 2 gm of particulate matter per year. Additionally, during the dry months, major duststorms appear a couple of times with an uplift of half a million kg of dust in air over about 810 square km each time. The paper will focus on water scarcity, the climatic extremity, suspended particulate matter, the outbreaks of water-borne and the prevalent respiratory diseases, and suggestions to mitigate human sufferings.« less

Predictors of Drought Recovery across Forest Ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anderegg, W.

2016-12-01

The impacts of climate extremes on terrestrial ecosystems are poorly understood but central for predicting carbon cycle feedbacks to climate change. Coupled climate-carbon cycle models typically assume that vegetation recovery from extreme drought is immediate and complete, which conflicts with basic plant physiological understanding. Here, we discuss what we have learned about forest ecosystem recovery from extreme drought across spatial and temporal scales, drawing on inference from tree rings, eddy covariance data, large scale gross primary productivity products, and ecosystem models. In tree rings, we find pervasive and substantial "legacy effects" of reduced growth and incomplete recovery for 1-4 years after severe drought, and that legacy effects are most prevalent in dry ecosystems, Pinaceae, and species with low hydraulic safety margins. At larger scales, we see relatively rapid recovery of ecosystem fluxes, with strong influences of ecosystem productivity and diversity and longer recovery periods in high latidue forests. In contrast, no or limited legacy effects are simulated in current climate-vegetation models after drought, and we highlight some of the key missing mechanisms in dynamic vegetation models. Our results reveal hysteresis in forest ecosystem carbon cycling and delayed recovery from climate extremes and help advance a predictive understanding of ecosystem recovery.

Influence of Drought on the Hydraulic Efficiency and the Hydraulic Safety of the Xylem - Case of a Semi-arid Conifer.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gentine, P.; Guerin, M. F.; von Arx, G.; Martin-Benito, D.; Griffin, K. L.; McDowell, N.; Pockman, W.; Andreu-Hayles, L.

2017-12-01

Recent droughts in the Southwest US have resulted in extensive mortality in the pinion pine population (Pinus Edulis). An important factor for resiliency is the ability of a plant to maintain a functional continuum between soil and leaves, allowing water's motion to be sustained or resumed. During droughts, loss of functional tracheids happens through embolism, which can be partially mitigated by increasing the hydraulic safety of the xylem. However, higher hydraulic safety is usually achieved by building narrower tracheids with thicker walls, resulting in a reduction of the hydraulic efficiency of the xylem (conductivity per unit area). Reduced efficiency constrains water transport, limits photosynthesis and might delay recovery after the drought. Supporting existing research on safety-efficiency tradeoff, we test the hypothesis that under dry conditions, isohydric pinions grow xylem that favor efficiency over safety. Using a seven-year experiment with three watering treatments (drought, control, irrigated) in New Mexico, we investigate the effect of drought on the xylem anatomy of pinions' branches. We also compare the treatment effect with interannual variations in xylem structure. We measure anatomical variables - conductivities, cell wall thicknesses, hydraulic diameter, cell reinforcement and density - and preliminarily conclude that treatment has little effect on hydraulic efficiency while hydraulic safety is significantly reduced under dry conditions. Taking advantage of an extremely dry year occurrence during the experiment, we find a sharp increase in vulnerability for xylem tissues built the same year.

Combining wood anatomy and stable isotope variations in a 600-year multi-parameter climate reconstruction from Corsican black pine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Szymczak, Sonja; Hetzer, Timo; Bräuning, Achim; Joachimski, Michael M.; Leuschner, Hanns-Hubert; Kuhlemann, Joachim

2014-10-01

We present a new multi-parameter dataset from Corsican black pine growing on the island of Corsica in the Western Mediterranean basin covering the period AD 1410-2008. Wood parameters measured include tree-ring width, latewood width, earlywood width, cell lumen area, cell width, cell wall thickness, modelled wood density, as well as stable carbon and oxygen isotopes. We evaluated the relationships between different parameters and determined the value of the dataset for climate reconstructions. Correlation analyses revealed that carbon isotope ratios are influenced by cell parameters determining cell size, whereas oxygen isotope ratios are influenced by cell parameters determining the amount of transportable water in the xylem. A summer (June to August) precipitation reconstruction dating back to AD 1185 was established based on tree-ring width. No long-term trends or pronounced periods with extreme high/low precipitation are recorded in our reconstruction, indicating relatively stable moisture conditions over the entire time period. By comparing the precipitation reconstruction with a summer temperature reconstruction derived from the carbon isotope chronologies, we identified summers with extreme climate conditions, i.e. warm-dry, warm-wet, cold-dry and cold-wet. Extreme climate conditions during summer months were found to influence cell parameter characteristics. Cold-wet summers promote the production of broad latewood composed of wide and thin-walled tracheids, while warm-wet summers promote the production of latewood with small thick-walled cells. The presented dataset emphasizes the potential of multi-parameter wood analysis from one tree species over long time scales.

Spatio-Temporal Changes In Non-Extreme Precipitation Variability Over North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roque, S.

2016-12-01

Precipitation variability encompasses attributes associated with the sequencing and duration of events of the full range of magnitudes. However, climate change studies have largely focused on extreme events. Using analyses of long-term weather station data we show that high frequency events, such as fraction of wet days in a year and average duration of wet and dry periods, are undergoing significant changes across North America. The median increase in fraction of wet days in a year indicates that in 2010, North America experienced an additional 11 days of precipitation compared to 1960 (when the median number of wet days was 96), and wet periods that were 0.14 days longer than those in 1960 (when the median was 1.78 days). Further, these changes in high-frequency precipitation are more prevalent and larger than those associated with extremes. Such trends also exist for events of a range of magnitudes. Results reveal the existence of localized clusters with opposing trends to that of broader geographic variation, which illustrates the role of microclimate and other drivers of trends. Such hitherto unknown patterns have the potential to significantly inform our characterization of the resilience and vulnerability of a broad range of ecosystems, and agricultural and socio-economic systems. They can also set new benchmarks for climate model assessments.

Stream Response to an Extreme Defoliation Event

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gold, A.; Loffredo, J.; Addy, K.; Bernhardt, E. S.; Berdanier, A. B.; Schroth, A. W.; Inamdar, S. P.; Bowden, W. B.

2017-12-01

Extreme climatic events are known to profoundly impact stream flow and stream fluxes. These events can also exert controls on insect outbreaks, which may create marked changes in stream characteristics. The invasive Gypsy Moth (Lymantria dispar dispar) experiences episodic infestations based on extreme climatic conditions within the northeastern U.S. In most years, gypsy moth populations are kept in check by diseases. In 2016 - after successive years of unusually warm, dry spring and summer weather -gypsy moth caterpillars defoliated over half of Rhode Island's 160,000 forested ha. No defoliation of this magnitude had occurred for more than 30 years. We examined one RI headwater stream's response to the defoliation event in 2016 compared with comparable data in 2014 and 2015. Stream temperature and flow was gauged continuously by USGS and dissolved oxygen (DO) was measured with a YSI EXO2 sonde every 30 minutes during a series of deployments in the spring, summer and fall from 2014-2016. We used the single station, open channel method to estimate stream metabolism metrics. We also assessed local climate and stream temperature data from 2009-2016. We observed changes in stream responses during the defoliation event that suggest changes in ET, solar radiation and heat flux. Although the summer of 2016 had more drought stress (PDSI) than previous years, stream flow occurred throughout the summer, in contrast to several years with lower drought stress when stream flow ceased. Air temperature in 2016 was similar to prior years, but stream temperature was substantially higher than the prior seven years, likely due to the loss of canopy shading. DO declined dramatically in 2016 compared to prior years - more than the rising stream temperatures would indicate. Gross Primary Productivity was significantly higher during the year of the defoliation, indicating more total fixation of inorganic carbon from photo-autotrophs. In 2016, Ecosystem Respiration was also higher and Net Ecosystem Productivity indicated it is a heterotrophic stream. Extreme events and fluctuations in climate patterns in the region are expected to increase suggesting that further work on the effects of insect defoliation on forested streams is warranted.

Responses of High-Elevation Cold Desert Shrubs to a Wet Winter After California's Historic Drought of 2012 - 2015.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loik, M. E.

2016-12-01

California experienced an historic drought between 2011 and late 2015, which caused lasting impacts on plant survival and productivity, community patterns, and ecosystem processes. The winter of 2015-2016 was relatively wet by comparison, with over twice the annual snowfall and total precipitation (479 mm) as during the drought years. This study compared soil water content, water potential, photosynthetic processes, and Net Primary Productivity (NPP) for the widespread, co-dominant shrubs Artemisia tridentata (Asteraceae) and Purshia tridentata (Rosaceae) at the ecotone with Sierra Nevada conifer forest in eastern California (2315 m). Measurements were made in June and July 2014, 2015, and 2016, during the seasonal peak of new leaf, stem, and flower production. Soil water content was twice as high in early summer 2016 compared to 2014 and 2015. Mid-morning stem water potential averaged -1.80 MPa in 2014 and increased to -1.20 MPa in 2016 for A. tridentata; water potential for P. tridentata increased from -2.20 MPa to -1.30 MPa over the same period. Stomatal conductance to water vapor (gs) averaged 0.285 mol m-2 s-1 during the drought and increased almost 3-fold by 2016 for A. tridentata. By contrast, gs for P. tridentata increased by 1.6-fold from dry to wet years. Mean photosynthetic CO2 assimilation (A) was 32 μmol m-2 s-1 in the wet year 2016 for A. tridentata, which was almost twice that during the drought. The change in A was much smaller from wet to dry years for P. tridentata. The A vs. gs response wasmore sensitive to drought for A. tridentata than for P. tridentata. For both species, stomata closed around 11:30 h local time during the drought, but stayed open for the entire daytime during June and July of 2016. NPP was about two-fold greater in 2016 than in 2015 for A. tridentata, but only about 15% greater for P. tridentata over the same time. Results indicate that A. tridentata is capable of appreciable upregulation of photosynthesis and productivity in wet years, particularly by comparison to P. tridentata. These results also demonstrate that extreme drought induces downregulation of photosynthetic processes in these widespread high-elevation desert shrubs of the western US. Moreover, they are essential for constraining carbon cycling model in high-elevation desert lands during extremely dry and subsequent wet years.

Perennially ice-covered Lake Hoare, Antarctica: physical environment, biology and sedimentation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wharton, R. A. Jr; Simmons, G. M. Jr; McKay, C. P.; Wharton RA, J. r. (Principal Investigator)

1989-01-01

Lake Hoare (77 degrees 38' S, 162 degrees 53' E) is a perennially ice-covered lake at the eastern end of Taylor Valley in southern Victoria Land, Antarctica. The environment of this lake is controlled by the relatively thick ice cover (3-5 m) which eliminates wind generated currents, restricts gas exchange and sediment deposition, and reduces light penetration. The ice cover is in turn largely controlled by the extreme seasonality of Antarctica and local climate. Lake Hoare and other dry valley lakes may be sensitive indicators of short term (< 100 yr) climatic and/or anthropogenic changes in the dry valleys since the onset of intensive exploration over 30 years ago. The time constants for turnover of the water column and lake ice are 50 and 10 years, respectively. The turnover time for atmospheric gases in the lake is 30-60 years. Therefore, the lake environment responds to changes on a 10-100 year timescale. Because the ice cover has a controlling influence on the lake (e.g. light penetration, gas content of water, and sediment deposition), it is probable that small changes in ice ablation, sediment loading on the ice cover, or glacial meltwater (or groundwater) inflow will affect ice cover dynamics and will have a major impact on the lake environment and biota.

Forest response to heat waves at the dry timberline

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yakir, D.; Rotenberg, E.; Tatrinov, F.; Ogee, J.; Maseyk, K.

2012-04-01

Predictions of climate change consistently indicate continuous warming and drying for the entire Mediterranean basin and other regions during the next century. Investigating forest functioning at the current dry and hot "timberline" has therefore implications for predicting future forest distribution. In such investigations we should consider the forest adjustments to extreme conditions both at the long-term average climate basis, as at the time-scale of episodic extreme events, such as heat waves and droughts. Investigating both aspects in a 45-yr old semi-arid pine forest at the dry timberline (<300 mm annual rainfall) we observe adjustments that improve carbon-, nitrogen- and water- use efficiencies. An important aspect in the ecosystem sustainability is its ability to rapidly recover from extreme conditions, both at the short-term and the seasonal scale. A remarkable example is provided by the episodes (usually 2-4 days) of Easterly dry and hot air that are common in spring (so-called "Hamsin" events). During these events air temperature increases and relative humidity decreases within hours by 10˚C and 40%, respectively. Net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE) and photosynthesis (GPP) sharply decline, predominantly in response to the drastic increase in vapor pressure deficit (up to 6kPa), but then show full recovery to the pre-stress values within 24 h past the event. Similarly, following 5-6 months of seasonal drought, the forest resumes high photosynthetic activity within ~5 days following the first rain episode of about 10 mm in the fall. We show that these transient responses are useful in partitioning between the ecosystem responses to short-term atmosphere-driven stress and longer-term soil moisture stress. An ecosystem model (MuSICA) was used to test our understandings of underlying processes, and our ability to account for such differential responses.

Documentary evidence for the study of droughts in the Czech Lands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Řezníčková, Ladislava; Brázdil, Rudolf; Kotyza, Oldřich; Valášek, Hubert

2015-04-01

The study of droughts in the instrumental period can be based on various drought indices calculated usually from precipitation and temperature series. Documentary evidence, overlapping partly also with meteorological measurements, represents another important source utilisable particularly for the pre-instrumental period. Direct reports of drought or indirect indications of its impacts may be found in various individual or institutional sources: narrative written sources (annals, chronicles, commemorative records), weather diaries, personal and official correspondence, stall-keepers' and market songs, journalism, financial-economic records, religious sources (rogations, sermons, praying), special printed sources, chronograms, epigraphic sources ("hunger" stones). Corresponding data indicate directly meteorological drought and with describing of drought impacts also agricultural and hydrological droughts. The first credible direct drought information from the Czech Lands reports not any rain or snowfall during the 1090/1091 winter (Monk of Sázava). But data before AD 1500 are relatively scarce and they are related prevailingly to Bohemia. Density of precipitation/drought documentary records in the Czech Lands increases significantly after 1500. This allows create series of precipitation indices with classification of dry months in the scale -1 as dry, -2 as very dry and -3 as extremely dry month. Such dataset is important for the creation of 500-year Czech drought chronology.

Rossby waves, extreme fronts, and wildfires in southeastern Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reeder, Michael J.; Spengler, Thomas; Musgrave, Ruth

2015-03-01

The most catastrophic fires in recent history in southern Australia have been associated with extreme cold fronts. Here an extreme cold front is defined as one for which the maximum temperature at 2 m is at least 17°C lower on the day following the front. An anticyclone, which precedes the cold front, directs very dry northerlies or northwesterlies from the interior of the continent across the region. The passage of the cold front is followed by strong southerlies or southwesterlies. European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ERA-Interim Reanalyses show that this regional synoptic pattern common to all strong cold fronts, and hence severe fire conditions, is a consequence of propagating Rossby waves, which grow to large amplitude and eventually irreversibly overturn. The process of overturning produces the low-level anticyclone and dry conditions over southern Australia, while simultaneously producing an upper level trough and often precipitation in northeastern Australia.

Acid rock drainage and climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nordstrom, D. Kirk

2009-01-01

Rainfall events cause both increases and decreases in acid and metals concentrations and their loadings from mine wastes, and unmined mineralized areas, into receiving streams based on data from 3 mines sites in the United States and other sites outside the US. Gradual increases in concentrations occur during long dry spells and sudden large increases are observed during the rising limb of the discharge following dry spells (first flush). By the time the discharge peak has occurred, concentrations are usually decreased, often to levels below those of pre-storm conditions and then they slowly rise again during the next dry spell. These dynamic changes in concentrations and loadings are related to the dissolution of soluble salts and the flushing out of waters that were concentrated by evaporation. The underlying processes, pyrite oxidation and host rock dissolution, do not end until the pyrite is fully weathered, which can take hundreds to thousands of years. These observations can be generalized to predict future conditions caused by droughts related to El Ni??o and climate change associated with global warming. Already, the time period for dry summers is lengthening in the western US and rainstorms are further apart and more intense when they happen. Consequently, flushing of inactive or active mine sites and mineralized but unmined sites will cause larger sudden increases in concentrations that will be an ever increasing danger to aquatic life with climate change. Higher average concentrations will be observed during longer low-flow periods. Remediation efforts will have to increase the capacity of engineered designs to deal with more extreme conditions, not average conditions of previous years.

Extreme precipitation patterns and reductions of terrestrial ecosystem production across biomes

Treesearch

Yongguang Zhang; M. Susan Moran; Mark A. Nearing; Guillermo E. Ponce Campos; Alfredo R. Huete; Anthony R. Buda; David D. Bosch; Stacey A. Gunter; Stanley G. Kitchen; W. Henry McNab; Jack A. Morgan; Mitchel P. McClaran; Diane S. Montoya; Debra P.C. Peters; Patrick J. Starks

2013-01-01

Precipitation regimes are predicted to shift to more extreme patterns that are characterized by more heavy rainfall events and longer dry intervals, yet their ecological impacts on vegetation production remain uncertain across biomes in natural climatic conditions. This in situ study investigated the effects of these climatic conditions on aboveground net primary...

Defect-free ultrahigh flux asymmetric membranes

DOEpatents

Pinnau, Ingo; Koros, William J.

1990-01-01

Defect-free, ultrahigh flux integrally-skinned asymmetric membranes having extremely thin surface layers (<0.2 .mu.m) comprised of glassy polymers are disclosed. The membranes are formed by casting an appropriate drope followed by forced convective evaporation of solvent to obtain a dry phase separated asymmetrical structure. The structure is then washed in a precipitation liquid and dried.

What drives the interannual variations in carbon fluxes and balance in a tropical rainforest of French Guiana?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aguilos, M. M.; Burban, B.; Wagner, F. H.; Hérault, B.; Bonal, D.

2016-12-01

Amazon rainforest - a major contributor to the global carbon sink, is not on steady state and this affects terrestrial carbon pools. Yet, information on the effect of climatic extremes to long-term carbon fluxes is lacking. Thus, using an 11-year eddy covariance data, we examined the carbon fluxes and net carbon uptake in French Guiana's tropical rainforest to determine the interannual and seasonal variations in gross primary production (GPP), ecosystem respiration (RE) and net ecosystem exchange (NEE), so with climatic drivers influencing such changes from 2004 - 2014. GPP varies from 3394.9 g C m‒2 yr‒1 to 4054.5 g C m‒2 yr‒1. RE is more varied than GPP (3057.4 g C m‒2 yr‒1 - 3425.9 g C m‒2 yr‒1. NEE has large interannual variability from ‒68.2 g C m‒2 yr‒1 to ‒596.2 g C m‒2 yr‒1. NEE during wet seasons had higher sink strength than in dry periods. The sudden drop of RE during wet period in 2007 - 2009 may help explain this as it almost doubled the net uptake while GPP had slighter declines. The pattern of NEE appears to be driven by higher rate of increase in RE during dry season with less comparable rise in GPP. This suggests that over 11 years, the ecosystem did not suffer any extreme dry condition strong enough to induce severe decrease in RE. Annually, global radiation (Rg) explains 49% (P<0.0001) for GPP, 42% (P<0.0001) for RE, and 21% (P<0.0001) for NEE. During the wet season, Rg still controls GPP (r2 = 0.45; P <0.0001), RE (r2 = 0.30; P<0.0001;) and NEE (r2 = 0.31; P<0.0001). However, relative extractable water (REW) manifested more strongly during the dry period explaining mainly the variations of GPP (r2 = 0.20; P < 0.0001), RE (r2 = 0.33; P < 0.0001) and NEE (r2 = 0.25; P < 0.0001). Deep rooting system of trees may have caused GPP unsuppressed despite low soil moisture. Therefore, modeling studies must consider incorporating soil water measurements in deeper soils as most tropical trees are dependent on deep soil moisture to avoid water stress.

Income breeding allows an aquatic snake Seminatrix pygaea to reproduce normally following prolonged drought-induced aestivation.

PubMed

Winne, Christopher T; Willson, John D; Gibbons, J Whitfield

2006-11-01

1. Capital breeding is an ideal reproductive strategy for many ectotherms because it provides a disassociation between feeding and reproduction, a necessary requirement for animals that become anorexic during pregnancy. Among ectotherms, some viviparous snakes (e.g. Viperidae) exemplify the capital breeding strategy because many species (i) do not feed during pregnancy due to behavioural conflicts between reproduction and foraging, and (ii) take more than one season to accumulate sufficient energetic stores for reproduction. 2. Isolated wetlands often exhibit extreme annual fluctuations in environmental conditions with prolonged droughts periodically leaving wetlands completely dry and devoid of prey. Following droughts, however, wetlands can be extremely productive, rendering prey resources virtually unlimited for some species. 3. This study examines drought survival strategy and reproductive ecology of a small aquatic snake Seminatrix pygaea (Cope) in an isolated wetland. Seminatrix pygaea are atypical from most sympatric snake species in that (i) their small body size, reliance on aquatic prey, and high rates of evaporative water loss make them ill-suited to overland movement, and (ii) they may not be subject to costs typically associated with feeding during pregnancy. 4. We hypothesized that S. pygaea would survive periodic multiyear droughts by aestivating within the dried wetland, a survival strategy heretofore undocumented in snakes. Further, we hypothesized that if S. pygaea rely on 'typical' snake reproductive strategies of 'adaptive anorexia' and capital breeding, reproductive output would be reduced in the first wet year following drought. 5. By encircling a 10-ha wetland with a continuous drift fence before it refilled we were able to demonstrate that S. pygaea were present within the dried wetland prior to the onset of spring rains that refilled the wetland in 2003. Our results suggest that S. pygaea are capable of surviving multiyear droughts by aestivating within the dried wetland. 6. Despite having presumably depleted energy reserves during the drought, S. pygaea reproduced with the same frequency and fecundity during the first season following refilling of the wetland as in pre-drought years. 7. The ability of S. pygaea to rebound rapidly from the stresses of prolonged drought is due in part to their reproductive ecology. Seminatrix pygaea readily feed throughout pregnancy and consequently can rapidly translate high prey abundances into reproductive output through income breeding.

Understanding the Mechanisms by Which a Perennial Arctic Stream Appears Intermittent

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Betts, E.; Kane, D. L.

2011-12-01

Fish and wildlife species in the Arctic have developed life history strategies to deal with the extreme climate of the North. In the case of Arctic grayling, these strategies include long life, yearly spawning, and migration. In order to understand how such a species will be affected by a changing climate, we must determine how these adaptive strategies may be at odds with the changing Arctic landscape. Arctic grayling migrate to spawning grounds just after break up in the spring, then migrate to feeding sites in early summer, and finally in the fall migrate back to their overwintering sites. Low precipitation and high evapotranspiration rates early in the summer can lead to low water levels and a fragmentation of the hydrologic landscape. This fragmentation creates a barrier to fish migration. The Kuparuk River is a perennial stream originating in the foothills of the Brooks Range on the North Slope of Alaska. The basin is entirely underlain by permafrost which essentially cuts the system off from deep groundwater. Subsurface flow occurs in the active layer, that area above permafrost which undergoes seasonal thawing in the summer. Sections of the Kuparuk are intermittent in that during low flows in the system these reaches appear dry. Water reappears downstream of these dry reaches and it is believed that water continues to flow below the surface through the unfrozen thaw bulb beneath these reaches. These dry reaches act as summer barriers to fish migration within the Kuparuk River system. Previous research of this phenomenon sought to understand the location and timing of these "dry" events. This work found that these reaches appear dry anywhere from 2 days to 4 weeks at a time and average about 22 dry days a year. The timing of these dry events is fairly uniform throughout the summer. The three dry reaches in this study range from 1.5 miles in length to over 5 miles. The dry reaches in this study occur just upstream of aufeis fields. It has been shown previously that most aufeis fields on the North Slope are fed by deep groundwater springs. In this system however we know that this water is much younger and therefore likely from a much closer source. Specifically, it is the hypothesis of the author that the water feeding these aufeis fields is related to water being stored in unfrozen zones above the permafrost. This storage area represents an area of preferential flow which explains why flow runs completely subsurface during periods of low flow in the Kuparuk. The research presented here represents year two of the current project which has focused on understanding the mechanisms which drive these dry events in an effort to determine whether climate change will act to increase the instances of such events.

Lock hopper values for coal gasification plant service

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schoeneweis, E. F.

1977-01-01

Although the operating principle of the lock hopper system is extremely simple, valve applications involving this service for coal gasification plants are likewise extremely difficult. The difficulties center on the requirement of handling highly erosive pulverized coal or char (either in dry or slurry form) combined with the requirement of providing tight sealing against high-pressure (possibly very hot) gas. Operating pressures and temperatures in these applications typically range up to 1600 psi (110bar) and 600F (316C), with certain process requirements going even higher. In addition, and of primary concern, is the need for reliable operation over long service periods with the provision for practical and economical maintenance. Currently available data indicate the requirement for something in the order of 20,000 to 30,000 open-close cycles per year and a desire to operate at least that long without valve failure.

Prioritizing Wetlands for Waterbirds in a Boom and Bust System: Waterbird Refugia and Breeding in the Murray-Darling Basin.

PubMed

Bino, Gilad; Kingsford, Richard T; Porter, John

2015-01-01

Dryland rivers have considerable flow variability, producing complex ecosystems, processes, and communities of organisms that vary over space and time. They are also among the more vulnerable of the world's ecosystems. A key strategy for conservation of dryland rivers is identifying and maintaining key sites for biodiversity conservation, particularly protecting the quantity and quality of flow and flooding regimes. Extreme variability considerably challenges freshwater conservation planning. We systematically prioritised wetlands for waterbirds (simultaneously for 52 species), across about 13.5% of the Murray-Darling Basin (1,061,469 km2), using a 30-year record of systematic aerial surveys of waterbird populations. Nine key wetlands in this area, primarily lakes, floodplains, and swamps, consistently contributed to a representation target (80%) of total abundances of all 52 waterbird species. The long temporal span of our data included dramatic availability (i.e., booms) and scarcity (i.e., busts) of water, providing a unique opportunity to test prioritisation at extremes of variation. These extremes represented periods when waterbirds were breeding or concentrating on refugia, varying wetland prioritisation. In dry years, important wetlands for waterbirds were riverine and lacustrine (12 wetlands) but this changed in wet years to lacustrine and palustrine (8 wetlands). Such variation in ecosystem condition substantially changes the relative importance of individual wetlands for waterbirds during boom and bust phases. Incorporating this variability is necessary for effective conservation of Murray-Darling Basin waterbirds, with considerable generality for other similarly variable systems around the world.

The paleoclimate context and future trajectory of extreme summer hydroclimate in eastern Australia

PubMed Central

Cook, Benjamin I; Palmer, Jonathan G; Cook, Edward R; Turney, Chris S M; Allen, Kathryn; Fenwick, Pavla; O’Donnell, Alison; Lough, Janice M; Grierson, Pauline F; Ho, Michelle; Baker, Patrick J

2018-01-01

Eastern Australia recently experienced an intense drought (Millennium Drought, 2003–2009) and record-breaking rainfall and flooding (austral summer 2010–2011). There is some limited evidence for a climate change contribution to these events, but such analyses are hampered by the paucity of information on long-term natural variability. Analyzing a new reconstruction of summer (December–January–February) Palmer Drought Severity Index (the Australia–New Zealand Drought Atlas; ANZDA, 1500–2012 CE), we find moisture deficits during the Millennium Drought fall within the range of the last 500 years of natural hydroclimate variability. This variability includes periods of multi-decadal drought in the 1500s more persistent than any event in the historical record. However, the severity of the Millennium Drought, which was caused by autumn (March–April–May) precipitation declines, may be underestimated in the ANZDA because the reconstruction is biased towards summer and antecedent spring (September-October-November) precipitation. The pluvial in 2011, however, which was characterized by extreme summer rainfall faithfully captured by the ANZDA, is likely the wettest year in the reconstruction for Coastal Queensland. Climate projections (RCP 8.5 scenario) suggest that eastern Australia will experience long-term drying during the 21st century. While the contribution of anthropogenic forcing to recent extremes remains an open question, these projections indicate an amplified risk of multi-year drought anomalies matching or exceeding the intensity of the Millennium Drought. PMID:29780675

Natural hazards in a changing world: a case for ecosystem-based management.

PubMed

Nel, Jeanne L; Le Maitre, David C; Nel, Deon C; Reyers, Belinda; Archibald, Sally; van Wilgen, Brian W; Forsyth, Greg G; Theron, Andre K; O'Farrell, Patrick J; Kahinda, Jean-Marc Mwenge; Engelbrecht, Francois A; Kapangaziwiri, Evison; van Niekerk, Lara; Barwell, Laurie

2014-01-01

Communities worldwide are increasingly affected by natural hazards such as floods, droughts, wildfires and storm-waves. However, the causes of these increases remain underexplored, often attributed to climate changes or changes in the patterns of human exposure. This paper aims to quantify the effect of climate change, as well as land cover change, on a suite of natural hazards. Changes to four natural hazards (floods, droughts, wildfires and storm-waves) were investigated through scenario-based models using land cover and climate change drivers as inputs. Findings showed that human-induced land cover changes are likely to increase natural hazards, in some cases quite substantially. Of the drivers explored, the uncontrolled spread of invasive alien trees was estimated to halve the monthly flows experienced during extremely dry periods, and also to double fire intensities. Changes to plantation forestry management shifted the 1:100 year flood event to a 1:80 year return period in the most extreme scenario. Severe 1:100 year storm-waves were estimated to occur on an annual basis with only modest human-induced coastal hardening, predominantly from removal of coastal foredunes and infrastructure development. This study suggests that through appropriate land use management (e.g. clearing invasive alien trees, re-vegetating clear-felled forests, and restoring coastal foredunes), it would be possible to reduce the impacts of natural hazards to a large degree. It also highlights the value of intact and well-managed landscapes and their role in reducing the probabilities and impacts of extreme climate events.

The combined effects of a long-term experimental drought and an extreme drought on the use of plant-water sources in a Mediterranean forest.

PubMed

Barbeta, Adrià; Mejía-Chang, Monica; Ogaya, Romà; Voltas, Jordi; Dawson, Todd E; Peñuelas, Josep

2015-03-01

Vegetation in water-limited ecosystems relies strongly on access to deep water reserves to withstand dry periods. Most of these ecosystems have shallow soils over deep groundwater reserves. Understanding the functioning and functional plasticity of species-specific root systems and the patterns of or differences in the use of water sources under more frequent or intense droughts is therefore necessary to properly predict the responses of seasonally dry ecosystems to future climate. We used stable isotopes to investigate the seasonal patterns of water uptake by a sclerophyll forest on sloped terrain with shallow soils. We assessed the effect of a long-term experimental drought (12 years) and the added impact of an extreme natural drought that produced widespread tree mortality and crown defoliation. The dominant species, Quercus ilex, Arbutus unedo and Phillyrea latifolia, all have dimorphic root systems enabling them to access different water sources in space and time. The plants extracted water mainly from the soil in the cold and wet seasons but increased their use of groundwater during the summer drought. Interestingly, the plants subjected to the long-term experimental drought shifted water uptake toward deeper (10-35 cm) soil layers during the wet season and reduced groundwater uptake in summer, indicating plasticity in the functional distribution of fine roots that dampened the effect of our experimental drought over the long term. An extreme drought in 2011, however, further reduced the contribution of deep soil layers and groundwater to transpiration, which resulted in greater crown defoliation in the drought-affected plants. This study suggests that extreme droughts aggravate moderate but persistent drier conditions (simulated by our manipulation) and may lead to the depletion of water from groundwater reservoirs and weathered bedrock, threatening the preservation of these Mediterranean ecosystems in their current structures and compositions. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Increased frequency of extreme Indian Ocean Dipole events due to greenhouse warming.

PubMed

Cai, Wenju; Santoso, Agus; Wang, Guojian; Weller, Evan; Wu, Lixin; Ashok, Karumuri; Masumoto, Yukio; Yamagata, Toshio

2014-06-12

The Indian Ocean dipole is a prominent mode of coupled ocean-atmosphere variability, affecting the lives of millions of people in Indian Ocean rim countries. In its positive phase, sea surface temperatures are lower than normal off the Sumatra-Java coast, but higher in the western tropical Indian Ocean. During the extreme positive-IOD (pIOD) events of 1961, 1994 and 1997, the eastern cooling strengthened and extended westward along the equatorial Indian Ocean through strong reversal of both the mean westerly winds and the associated eastward-flowing upper ocean currents. This created anomalously dry conditions from the eastern to the central Indian Ocean along the Equator and atmospheric convergence farther west, leading to catastrophic floods in eastern tropical African countries but devastating droughts in eastern Indian Ocean rim countries. Despite these serious consequences, the response of pIOD events to greenhouse warming is unknown. Here, using an ensemble of climate models forced by a scenario of high greenhouse gas emissions (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5), we project that the frequency of extreme pIOD events will increase by almost a factor of three, from one event every 17.3 years over the twentieth century to one event every 6.3 years over the twenty-first century. We find that a mean state change--with weakening of both equatorial westerly winds and eastward oceanic currents in association with a faster warming in the western than the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean--facilitates more frequent occurrences of wind and oceanic current reversal. This leads to more frequent extreme pIOD events, suggesting an increasing frequency of extreme climate and weather events in regions affected by the pIOD.

Statistical analysis and ANN modeling for predicting hydrological extremes under climate change scenarios: the example of a small Mediterranean agro-watershed.

PubMed

Kourgialas, Nektarios N; Dokou, Zoi; Karatzas, George P

2015-05-01

The purpose of this study was to create a modeling management tool for the simulation of extreme flow events under current and future climatic conditions. This tool is a combination of different components and can be applied in complex hydrogeological river basins, where frequent flood and drought phenomena occur. The first component is the statistical analysis of the available hydro-meteorological data. Specifically, principal components analysis was performed in order to quantify the importance of the hydro-meteorological parameters that affect the generation of extreme events. The second component is a prediction-forecasting artificial neural network (ANN) model that simulates, accurately and efficiently, river flow on an hourly basis. This model is based on a methodology that attempts to resolve a very difficult problem related to the accurate estimation of extreme flows. For this purpose, the available measurements (5 years of hourly data) were divided in two subsets: one for the dry and one for the wet periods of the hydrological year. This way, two ANNs were created, trained, tested and validated for a complex Mediterranean river basin in Crete, Greece. As part of the second management component a statistical downscaling tool was used for the creation of meteorological data according to the higher and lower emission climate change scenarios A2 and B1. These data are used as input in the ANN for the forecasting of river flow for the next two decades. The final component is the application of a meteorological index on the measured and forecasted precipitation and flow data, in order to assess the severity and duration of extreme events. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Extreme Flood Events Over the Past 300 Years Recorded in the Sediments of a Mountain Lake in the Altay Mountains, Northwestern China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, J.; Zhou, J.; Shen, B.; Zeng, H.

2017-12-01

Global climate change has the potential to accelerate the hydrological cycle, which may further enhance the temporal frequency of regional extreme floods. Climatic models predict that intra-annual rainfall variability will intensify, which will shift current rainfall regimes towards more extreme systems with lower precipitation frequencies, longer dry periods, and larger individual precipitation events worldwide. Understanding the temporal variations of extreme floods that occur in response to climate change is essential to anticipate the trends in flood magnitude and frequency in the context of global warming. However, currently available instrumental data are not long enough for capturing the most extreme events, thus the acquisition of long duration datasets for historical floods that extend beyond available instrumental records is clearly an important step in discerning trends in flood frequency and magnitude with respect to climate change. In this study, a reconstruction of paleofloods over the past 300 years was conducted through an analysis of grain sizes from the sediments of Kanas Lake in the Altay Mountains of northwestern China. Grain parameters and frequency distributions both demonstrate that two abrupt environment changes exist within the lake sedimentary sequence. Based on canonical discriminant analysis (CDA) and C-M pattern analysis, two flood events corresponding to ca. 1760 AD and ca. 1890 AD were identified, both of which occurred during warmer and wetter climate conditions according to tree-ring records. These two flood events are also evidenced by lake sedimentary records in the Altay and Tianshan areas. Furthermore, through a comparison with other records, the flood event in ca. 1760 AD seems to have occurred in both the arid central Asia and the Alps in Europe, and thus may have been associated with changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index.

Energy-saving drying and its application

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kovbasyuk, V. I.

2015-09-01

Superheated steam is efficiently applied as a coolant for the intensification of drying, which is an important component of many up-to-date technologies. However, traditional drying is extremely energy consuming, and many drying apparatus are environmentally unfriendly. Thus, it is important to implement the proposed drying technique using superheated steam under pressure significantly higher than the atmospheric one with subsequent steam transfer for use in a turbine for electric power generation as a compensation of energy costs for drying. This paper includes a brief thermodynamic analysis of such a technique, its environmental advantages, and possible benefits of the use of wet wastes and obtaining high-quality fuels from wet raw materials. A scheme is developed for the turbine protection from impurities that can occur in the steam at drying. Potential advantage of the technique are also the absence of heating surfaces that are in contact with wet media, the absence of the emissions to the atmosphere, and the use of low potential heat for desalination and the purification of water. The new drying technique can play an extremely important part in the implementation in the field of thermal destruction of anthropogenic wastes. In spite of the promotion of waste sorting to obtain valuable secondary raw materials, the main problem of big cities is nonutilizable waste, which makes not less than 85% of the starting quantity of waste. This can only be totally solved by combustion, which even more relates to the sewage sludge utilization. The wastes can be safely and efficiently combusted only provided that they are free of moisture. Combustion temperature optimization makes possible full destruction of dioxins and their toxic analogues.

Linking hydraulic properties of fire-affected soils to infiltration and water repellency

USGS Publications Warehouse

Moody, John A.; David Kinner,; Xavier Úbeda,

2009-01-01

Heat from wildfires can produce a two-layer system composed of extremely dry soil covered by a layer of ash, which when subjected to rainfall, may produce extreme floods. To understand the soil physics controlling runoff for these initial conditions, we used a small, portable disk infiltrometer to measure two hydraulic properties: (1) near-saturated hydraulic conductivity, Kf and (2) sorptivity, S(θi), as a function of initial soil moisture content, θi, ranging from extremely dry conditions (θi < 0.02 cm3 cm−3) to near saturation. In the field and in the laboratory replicate measurements were made of ash, reference soils, soils unaffected by fire, and fire-affected soils. Each has a different degrees of water repellency that influences Kf and S(θi).Values of Kf ranged from 4.5 × 10−3 to 53 × 10−3 cm s−1 for ash; from 0.93 × 10−3 to 130 × 10−3 cm s−1 for reference soils; and from 0.86 × 10−3 to 3.0 × 10−3 cm s−1, for soil unaffected by fire, which had the lowest values of Kf. Measurements indicated that S(θi) could be represented by an empirical non-linear function of θi with a sorptivity maximum of 0.18–0.20 cm s−0.5, between 0.03 and 0.08 cm3 cm−3. This functional form differs from the monotonically decreasing non-linear functions often used to represent S(θi) for rainfall–runoff modeling. The sorptivity maximum may represent the combined effects of gravity, capillarity, and adsorption in a transitional domain corresponding to extremely dry soil, and moreover, it may explain the observed non-linear behavior, and the critical soil-moisture threshold of water repellent soils. Laboratory measurements of Kf and S(θi) are the first for ash and fire-affected soil, but additional measurements are needed of these hydraulic properties for in situ fire-affected soils. They provide insight into water repellency behavior and infiltration under extremely dry conditions. Most importantly, they indicate how existing rainfall–runoff models can be modified to accommodate a possible two-layer system in extremely dry conditions. These modified models can be used to predict floods from burned watersheds under these initial conditions.

Is soil moisture initialization important for seasonal to decadal predictions?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stacke, Tobias; Hagemann, Stefan

2014-05-01

The state of soil moisture can can have a significant impact on regional climate conditions for short time scales up to several months. However, focusing on seasonal to decadal time scales, it is not clear whether the predictive skill of global a Earth System Model might be enhanced by assimilating soil moisture data or improving the initial soil moisture conditions with respect to observations. As a first attempt to provide answers to this question, we set up an experiment to investigate the life time (memory) of extreme soil moisture states in the coupled land-atmosphere model ECHAM6-JSBACH, which is part of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology's Earth System Model (MPI-ESM). This experiment consists of an ensemble of 3 years simulations which are initialized with extreme wet and dry soil moisture states for different seasons and years. Instead of using common thresholds like wilting point or critical soil moisture, the extreme states were extracted from a reference simulation to ensure that they are within the range of simulated climate variability. As a prerequisite for this experiment, the soil hydrology in JSBACH was improved by replacing the bucket-type soil hydrology scheme with a multi-layer scheme. This new scheme is a more realistic representation of the soil, including percolation and diffusion fluxes between up to five separate layers, the limitation of bare soil evaporation to the uppermost soil layer and the addition of a long term water storage below the root zone in regions with deep soil. While the hydrological cycle is not strongly affected by this new scheme, it has some impact on the simulated soil moisture memory which is mostly strengthened due to the additional deep layer water storage. Ensemble statistics of the initialization experiment indicate perturbation lengths between just a few days up to several seasons for some regions. In general, the strongest effects are seen for wet initialization during northern winter over cold and humid regions, while the shortest memory is found during northern spring. For most regions, the soil moisture memory is either sensitive to wet or to dry perturbations, indicating that soil moisture anomalies interact with the respective weather pattern for a given year and might be able to enhance or dampen extreme conditions. To further investigate this effect, the simulations will be repeated using JSBACH with prescribed meteorological forcing to better disentangle the direct effects of soil moisture initialization and the atmospheric response.

AmeriFlux US-SCd Southern California Climate Gradient - Sonoran Desert

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Goulden, Mike

This is the AmeriFlux version of the carbon flux data for the site US-SCd Southern California Climate Gradient - Sonoran Desert. Site Description - Half hourly data are available at https://www.ess.uci.edu/~california/. This site is one of six Southern California Climate Gradient flux towers operated along an elevation gradient (sites are US-SCg, US-SCs, US-SCf, US-SCw, US-SCc, US-SCd). This site is a low desert site in Southern California's rain shadow; the climate is extremely dry and hot. The site has experience repeated droughts, with negligible rainfall during several years of the record.

Caatinga Revisited: Ecology and Conservation of an Important Seasonal Dry Forest

PubMed Central

de Albuquerque, Ulysses Paulino; de Lima Araújo, Elcida; El-Deir, Ana Carla Asfora; de Lima, André Luiz Alves; Souto, Antonio; Bezerra, Bruna Martins; Ferraz, Elba Maria Nogueira; Maria Xavier Freire, Eliza; Sampaio, Everardo Valadares de Sá Barreto; Las-Casas, Flor Maria Guedes; de Moura, Geraldo Jorge Barbosa; Pereira, Glauco Alves; de Melo, Joabe Gomes; Alves Ramos, Marcelo; Rodal, Maria Jesus Nogueira; Schiel, Nicola; de Lyra-Neves, Rachel Maria; Alves, Rômulo Romeu Nóbrega; de Azevedo-Júnior, Severino Mendes; Telino Júnior, Wallace Rodrigues; Severi, William

2012-01-01

Besides its extreme climate conditions, the Caatinga (a type of tropical seasonal forest) hosts an impressive faunal and floristic biodiversity. In the last 50 years there has been a considerable increase in the number of studies in the area. Here we aimed to present a review of these studies, focusing on four main fields: vertebrate ecology, plant ecology, human ecology, and ethnobiology. Furthermore, we identify directions for future research. We hope that the present paper will help defining actions and strategies for the conservation of the biological diversity of the Caatinga. PMID:22919296

Enhancing the Extreme Climate Index (ECI) to monitor climate extremes for an index-based insurance scheme across Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Helmschrot, J.; Malherbe, J.; Chamunorwa, M.; Muthige, M.; Petitta, M.; Calmanti, S.; Cucchi, M.; Syroka, J.; Iyahen, E.; Engelbrecht, F.

2017-12-01

Climate services are a key component of National Adaptation Plan (NAP) processes, which require the analysis of current climate conditions, future climate change scenarios and the identification of adaptation strategies, including the capacity to finance and implement effective adaptation options. The Extreme Climate Facility (XCF) proposed by the African Risk Capacity (ARC) developed a climate index insurance scheme, which is based on the Extreme Climate Index (ECI): an objective, multi-hazard index capable of tracking changes in the frequency or magnitude of extreme weather events, thus indicating possible shifts to a new climate regime in various regions. The main hazards covered by ECI are extreme dry, wet and heat events, with the possibility of adding other region-specific risk events. The ECI is standardized across broad geographical regions, so that extreme events occurring under different climatic regimes in Africa can be compared. Initially developed by an Italian company specialized in Climate Services, research is now conducted at the CSIR and SASSCAL, to verify and further develop the ECI for application in southern African countries, through a project initiated by the World Food Programme (WFP) and ARC. The paper will present findings on the most appropriate definitions of extremely wet and dry conditions in Africa, in terms of their impact across a multitude of sub-regional climates of the African continent. Findings of a verification analysis of the ECI, as determined through vegetation monitoring data and the SASSCAL weather station network will be discussed. Changes in the ECI under climate change will subsequently be projected, using detailed regional projections generated by the CSIR and through the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX). This work will be concluded by the development of a web-based climate service informing African Stakeholders on climate extremes.

The near-term prediction of drought and flooding conditions in the northeastern United States based on extreme phases of AMO and NAO

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berton, Rouzbeh; Driscoll, Charles T.; Adamowski, Jan F.

2017-10-01

A series of hydroclimatic teleconnection patterns were identified between variations in either Atlantic or Pacific oceanic indices with precipitation and discharge anomalies in the northeastern United States. We hypothesized that temporal annual or seasonal changes in discharge could be explained by variations in extreme phases of the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO index, SST: Sea Surface Temperature anomalies) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO index, SLP: Sea-Level Pressure anomalies) up to three seasons in advance. The Merrimack River watershed, the fourth largest basin in New England, with a drainage area of 13,000 km2, is a compelling study site because it not only provides an opportunity to investigate the teleconnection between hydrologic variables and large-scale climate circulation patterns, but also how those patterns may become obscured by anthropogenic disturbances such as river regulation or urban development. We considered precipitation and discharge data of 21 gauging stations within the Merrimack River watershed, including the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest (HBEF), NH, with a median record length of 55 years beginning as early as 1904. The discharge anomalies were statistically significant (p-value ≤ 0.2) between extreme positive and negative phases of AMO (1857-2011) and NAO (1900-2011) and revealed the potential teleconnectivity of climate circulation patterns with discharge. Annual and seasonal correlations of discharge were examined with the extreme phases of AMO and NAO at zero-, one-, or two- year/season lags (total of 30 scenarios). When AMO was greater than 0.2, the strongest correlations of AMO and NAO with discharge were observed at headwater catchments. This correlation weakened downstream towards larger regulated and/or developed sub-basins. We introduced a simple approach for near-term prediction of drought and flooding events. An exponential decay function was regressed through the historic occurrence of the relative frequency of wet, average, and dry discharge conditions with regards to the extreme phases of AMO and NAO. While the function was decaying, the tail asymptotically merged into and stabilized at the theoretical probability of the event. As the basin scale increased, the probability of wet, average, and dry discharge conditions decreased. The Merrimack River watershed will most likely experience greater than average discharge as its extreme condition, therefore development should be avoided on flood plains. Furthermore, the current reservoir storage capacity in the Merrimack should be improved in order to accommodate excess water input and minimize flood damage. Future research should target changes in the magnitude and timing of high discharge events in order to develop adaptation strategies for aging hydraulic infrastructure in the region.

Giant gallstone: A case report

PubMed Central

Becerra, Pablo; Becerra, Valentina; Aguilar, Christian; Modragon, Itziar; Cooper, David K.C.

2011-01-01

Introduction There is a high incidence of gallstones in the Chilean population. Presentation of case We report on a 57-year-old man who complained of abdominal pain in the right upper quadrant. Abdominal ultrasound indicated acute cholecystitis and a single, extremely large pear-shaped gallstone (16.8 cm long, and 7.8 cm at its widest point and 4.1 cm at its narrowest point). Its fresh weight (at operation) was 278.0 g and, after 4 years, its dry weight was 259.5 g. Emergency classical cholecystectomy was carried out successfully. Discussion and Conclusion We have been unable to find a report of a larger gallstone in the English or Spanish language medical literature. PMID:22096735

Reconstruction of the Amazon Basin effective moisture availability over the past 14,000 years.

PubMed

Maslin, M A; Burns, S J

2000-12-22

Quantifying the moisture history of the Amazon Basin is essential for understanding the cause of rain forest diversity and its potential as a methane source. We reconstructed the Amazon River outflow history for the past 14,000 years to provide a moisture budget for the river drainage basin. The oxygen isotopic composition of planktonic foraminifera recovered from a marine sediment core in a region of Amazon River discharge shows that the Amazon Basin was extremely dry during the Younger Dryas, with the discharge reduced by at least 40% as compared with that of today. After the Younger Dryas, a meltwater-driven discharge event was followed by a steady increase in the Amazon Basin effective moisture throughout the Holocene.

Differentially expressed drought-responsive genes in Malus sieversii roots may contribute to this species' adaptation to arid environments

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Understanding naturally evolved adaptation to arid climates may be a key factor in developing crops that can thrive during extreme climate fluctuations. Malus sieversii (Ledeb.) M. Roem. is a wild apple species that has adapted to harsh environments in Kazakhstan, including extreme cold and dry reg...

Agriculturally Relevant Climate Extremes and Their Trends in the World's Major Growing Regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Xiao; Troy, Tara J.

2018-04-01

Climate extremes can negatively impact crop production, and climate change is expected to affect the frequency and severity of extremes. Using a combination of in situ station measurements (Global Historical Climatology Network's Daily data set) and multiple other gridded data products, a derived 1° data set of growing season climate indices and extremes is compiled over the major growing regions for maize, wheat, soybean, and rice for 1951-2006. This data set contains growing season climate indices that are agriculturally relevant, such as the number of hot days, duration of dry spells, and rainfall intensity. Before 1980, temperature-related indices had few trends; after 1980, statistically significant warming trends exist for each crop in the majority of growing regions. In particular, crops have increasingly been exposed to extreme hot temperatures, above which yields have been shown to decline. Rainfall trends are less consistent compared to temperature, with some regions receiving more rainfall and others less. Anomalous temperature and precipitation conditions are shown to often occur concurrently, with dry growing seasons more likely to be hotter, have larger drought indices, and have larger vapor pressure deficits. This leads to the confluence of a variety of climate conditions that negatively impact crop yields. These results show a consistent increase in global agricultural exposure to negative climate conditions since 1980.

Study on dynamic relationship of spring water in Jinan spring area based on gray relational analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Zhengxian; Liu, Yi; Zhang, Fengxian; Zhang, Leixian

2018-03-01

Springs Jinan to spring sparks spectacular and famous at home and abroad. With the development of the city and the increase of the amount of groundwater, the gas inflow of Jinan spring group in the late 1960s has been declining. In the early 1970s, Baotu Spring has dried up in the dry season. Since then, the spring water in most years has been cut off and the drying time Growing. In recent years, under the leadership of the provincial and municipal governments, through the joint efforts of various departments and in the extreme conditions of precipitation, making Jinan spring has been spewing more than 4 years. In this paper, the changes of groundwater level fluctuation in the western part of Jinan and the urban area in Jinan in 2015 are analyzed. The gray relational analysis method is used to study the fluctuation of groundwater in the west of Jinan and the spring area of Jinan City. Through the calculation of the correlation degree, it is found that the mean value of the correlation between the groundwater level of the monitoring wells and the water level of the spring water in the urban area is 0.7738. This data indicates a higher degree of correlation. Thus, the amount of groundwater in Jixi and Jinan City is illustrated by the presence of hydraulic connections. But to protect the famous spring spewing, reproduce the natural landscape of water and build a harmonious water city, this ambitious goal is still good and fast development process in Jinan, a subject.

A comparison of extreme rainfall characteristics in the Brazilian Amazon derived from two gridded data sets and a national rain gauge network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clarke, Robin T.; Bulhoes Mendes, Carlos Andre; Costa Buarque, Diogo

2010-07-01

Two issues of particular importance for the Amazon watershed are: whether annual maxima obtained from reanalysis and raingauge records agree well enough for the former to be useful in extending records of the latter; and whether reported trends in Amazon annual rainfall are reflected in the behavior of annual extremes in precipitation estimated from reanalyses and raingauge records. To explore these issues, three sets of daily precipitation data (1979-2001) from the Brazilian Amazon were analyzed (NCEP/NCAR and ERA-40 reanalyses, and records from the raingauge network of the Brazilian water resources agency - ANA), using the following variables: (1) mean annual maximum precipitation totals, accumulated over one, two, three and five days; (2) linear trends in these variables; (3) mean length of longest within-year "dry" spell; (4) linear trends in these variables. Comparisons between variables obtained from all three data sources showed that reanalyses underestimated time-trends and mean annual maximum precipitation (over durations of one to five days), and the correlations between reanalysis and spatially-interpolated raingauge estimates were small for these two variables. Both reanalyses over-estimated mean lengths of dry period relative to the mean length recorded by the raingauge network. Correlations between the trends calculated from all three data sources were small. Time-trends averaged over the reanalysis grid-squares, and spatially-interpolated time trends from raingauge data, were all clustered around zero. In conclusion, although the NCEP/NCAR and ERA-40 gridded data-sets may be valuable for studies of inter-annual variability in precipitation totals, they were found to be inappropriate for analysis of precipitation extremes.

Effects of extreme low flows on freshwater shrimps in a perennial tropical stream.

Treesearch

A.P. COVICH; T.A. CROWL; F.N. SCATENA

2003-01-01

1. Long-term data on rainfall suggests that perennial rainforest streams rarely are subject to drying of riffles or pools in the wet, non-seasonal Caribbean climate of Puerto Rico. Unusually low rainfall in 1994 caused some headwater riffles to dry out completely, resulting in isolated pools, reduced pool volumes and loss of access to microhabitats by benthic...

Drought and deluge: Effects of recent climate variability on groundwater levels in eastern Arkansas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Czarnecki, John B.; Schrader, T.P.

2013-01-01

Arkansas experienced wide extremes in climate variability during the period of 2005 to 2010, recording the largest annual precipitation ever recorded in the State (100.05 inches) in 2009. Many weather stations across the State reported between 80 to 90 inches of rainfall in 2009. For comparison, the average annual precipitation in Little Rock, Arkansas, for the period 1878 to 2010 was 47.1 inches. In contrast, 2005 and 2010 were the 7th and 14th driest years on record in Little Rock with 34.55 and 36.52 inches, respectively; both tied as the hottest years ever recorded in Arkansas. The wettest year on record in Little Rock (2009) was interspersed within these dry years, with a total of 81.79 inches. Fifteen weather stations within the State ranked 2009 as the wettest year on record. Extremes in annual precipitation rates may lead to greater variability in groundwater recharge rates and water use, particularly in the agricultural areas in eastern Arkansas that rely heavily on groundwater produced from the Mississippi River Valley alluvial aquifer (hereafter referred to as the alluvial aquifer). How does this variability affect the groundwater system and water use therein? Are the effects of this variability discernable in measured water levels in wells? Czarnecki and Schrader examined these questions and provided some insights, the results of which are presented here.

Major atmospheric emissions from peat fires in Southeast Asia during non-drought years: evidence from the 2013 Sumatran fires

PubMed Central

Gaveau, David L. A.; Salim, Mohammad A.; Hergoualc'h, Kristell; Locatelli, Bruno; Sloan, Sean; Wooster, Martin; Marlier, Miriam E.; Molidena, Elis; Yaen, Husna; DeFries, Ruth; Verchot, Louis; Murdiyarso, Daniel; Nasi, Robert; Holmgren, Peter; Sheil, Douglas

2014-01-01

Trans-boundary haze events in Southeast Asia are associated with large forest and peatland fires in Indonesia. These episodes of extreme air pollution usually occur during drought years induced by climate anomalies from the Pacific (El Niño Southern Oscillation) and Indian Oceans (Indian Ocean Dipole). However, in June 2013 – a non-drought year – Singapore's 24-hr Pollutants Standards Index reached an all-time record 246 (rated “very unhealthy”). Here, we show using remote sensing, rainfall records and other data, that the Indonesian fires behind the 2013 haze followed a two-month dry spell in a wetter-than-average year. These fires were short-lived (one week) and limited to a localized area in Central Sumatra (1.6% of Indonesia): burning an estimated 163,336 ha, including 137,044 ha (84%) on peat. Most burning was confined to deforested lands (82%; 133,216 ha). The greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions during this brief, localized event were considerable: 172 ± 59 Tg CO2-eq (or 31 ± 12 Tg C), representing 5–10% of Indonesia's mean annual GHG emissions for 2000–2005. Our observations show that extreme air pollution episodes in Southeast Asia are no longer restricted to drought years. We expect major haze events to be increasingly frequent because of ongoing deforestation of Indonesian peatlands. PMID:25135165

Major atmospheric emissions from peat fires in Southeast Asia during non-drought years: evidence from the 2013 Sumatran fires

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gaveau, David L. A.; Salim, Mohammad A.; Hergoualc'h, Kristell; Locatelli, Bruno; Sloan, Sean; Wooster, Martin; Marlier, Miriam E.; Molidena, Elis; Yaen, Husna; Defries, Ruth; Verchot, Louis; Murdiyarso, Daniel; Nasi, Robert; Holmgren, Peter; Sheil, Douglas

2014-08-01

Trans-boundary haze events in Southeast Asia are associated with large forest and peatland fires in Indonesia. These episodes of extreme air pollution usually occur during drought years induced by climate anomalies from the Pacific (El Niño Southern Oscillation) and Indian Oceans (Indian Ocean Dipole). However, in June 2013 - a non-drought year - Singapore's 24-hr Pollutants Standards Index reached an all-time record 246 (rated ``very unhealthy''). Here, we show using remote sensing, rainfall records and other data, that the Indonesian fires behind the 2013 haze followed a two-month dry spell in a wetter-than-average year. These fires were short-lived (one week) and limited to a localized area in Central Sumatra (1.6% of Indonesia): burning an estimated 163,336 ha, including 137,044 ha (84%) on peat. Most burning was confined to deforested lands (82%; 133,216 ha). The greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions during this brief, localized event were considerable: 172 +/- 59 Tg CO2-eq (or 31 +/- 12 Tg C), representing 5-10% of Indonesia's mean annual GHG emissions for 2000-2005. Our observations show that extreme air pollution episodes in Southeast Asia are no longer restricted to drought years. We expect major haze events to be increasingly frequent because of ongoing deforestation of Indonesian peatlands.

Major atmospheric emissions from peat fires in Southeast Asia during non-drought years: evidence from the 2013 Sumatran fires.

PubMed

Gaveau, David L A; Salim, Mohammad A; Hergoualc'h, Kristell; Locatelli, Bruno; Sloan, Sean; Wooster, Martin; Marlier, Miriam E; Molidena, Elis; Yaen, Husna; DeFries, Ruth; Verchot, Louis; Murdiyarso, Daniel; Nasi, Robert; Holmgren, Peter; Sheil, Douglas

2014-08-19

Trans-boundary haze events in Southeast Asia are associated with large forest and peatland fires in Indonesia. These episodes of extreme air pollution usually occur during drought years induced by climate anomalies from the Pacific (El Niño Southern Oscillation) and Indian Oceans (Indian Ocean Dipole). However, in June 2013--a non-drought year--Singapore's 24-hr Pollutants Standards Index reached an all-time record 246 (rated "very unhealthy"). Here, we show using remote sensing, rainfall records and other data, that the Indonesian fires behind the 2013 haze followed a two-month dry spell in a wetter-than-average year. These fires were short-lived (one week) and limited to a localized area in Central Sumatra (1.6% of Indonesia): burning an estimated 163,336 ha, including 137,044 ha (84%) on peat. Most burning was confined to deforested lands (82%; 133,216 ha). The greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions during this brief, localized event were considerable: 172 ± 59 Tg CO2-eq (or 31 ± 12 Tg C), representing 5-10% of Indonesia's mean annual GHG emissions for 2000-2005. Our observations show that extreme air pollution episodes in Southeast Asia are no longer restricted to drought years. We expect major haze events to be increasingly frequent because of ongoing deforestation of Indonesian peatlands.

Physiologic Cryoamputation in Managing Critically Ill Patients with Septic, Advanced Acute Limb Ischemia.

PubMed

Chen, Samuel L; Kuo, Isabella J; Kabutey, Nii-Kabu; Fujitani, Roy M

2017-07-01

Certain critically ill patients with advanced acute limb ischemia with a nonviable extremity may be unsuitable for transport to the operating room to undergo definitive amputation. In these unstable patients, rapid regional cryotherapy allows for prompt infectious source control and correction of hemodynamic and metabolic abnormalities, thereby lessening the risk associated with definitive surgical amputation. We describe our refined technique for lower extremity physiologic cryoamputation and review our institutional experience. After adequate analgesia is administered to the patient, a heating pad is secured circumferentially at the proximal amputation margin and the affected extremity is placed in a customized Styrofoam cooler. A circumferential seal is secured at the proximal chill zone without use of a tourniquet and dry ice is placed into the cooler to surround the entire affected leg. Delayed definitive lower extremity amputation is later performed when hemodynamic and metabolic derangements are corrected. We reviewed 5 patients who underwent lower extremity cryoamputation with this technique identified at our institution between 2005 and 2015. Age ranged from 31 to 79 years old. All presented with severe foot infection and septic shock requiring vasopressor support. All 5 patients stabilized hemodynamically following the initial cryoamputation and later underwent definitive lower extremity amputation, with a median time of 3 days following initial cryoamputation. Lower extremity physiologic cryoamputation is an effective, immediate bedside procedure that can provide local source control and the opportunity for correction of metabolic derangements in initially unstable patients to lessen the risk for definitive major lower extremity amputation. Refinement of the cryoamputation technique, as described in this report, allows for a predictable and reproducible physiologic amputation. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Determining the dynamics of evapotranspiration from fragmented forests under drought in southwestern Amazonia using Landsat imagery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Numata, I.; Khand, K.; Kjaersgaard, J.; Cochrane, M. A.; Silva, S.

2016-12-01

Deforestation in the Amazon has resulted in massive amounts of forest biomass loss and also in extensive forest fragmentation across the region. Fragmented tropical forests are exposed to abrupt environmental changes and experience several biological and ecological changes across distances from forest edges. Extreme droughts in 2005 and 2010 have caused extensive tree mortality across this region. These events may exacerbate edge effects, where already water stressed forest fragments dry more rapidly potentially enabling other disturbances such as forest fire. We analyzed the effects of forest fragmentation and drought on forest evapotranspiration (ET) estimated using the energy balance-based model METRIC with Landsat imagery in Rondônia State in the southwestern Amazon. Forest ET estimates were produced for the dry seasons (June-August) of 2009-2011 thus including the 2010 drought event and pre- and post-event periods. METRIC ET data were combined with forest edge data with edge distances of 100m, 300m, 500m, 1000m, 5000m and >5000m (core forest), generated from Landsat land cover maps for spatiotemporal analysis of forest ET. METRIC ET estimates had an agreement with flux tower ET data from the field of R2 = 0.72. Within the study time period, the 2010 drought year showed the lowest average ET from core forest (2.5mm/day), followed by 2011 (3.0mm/day) and 2009 (3.6mm/day) in the month of August, the mid dry season, while no significant differences were noted among three study years earlier in the dry seasons. In terms of edge effects, the major changes in forest ET occur up to 300 m from the forest edges, with ET decreasees of 30 % at 100 m as compared to further distances. The magnitude of edge-related ET changes became even greater during August of the drought year (2010) and the post-drought year (2011). Annual (drought and non-drought) and seasonal (June-August) forest ET variations were highly significant (p<0.001), while the impact of distance from edge on forest ET was significant only in the drought year (p<0.05).

Holocene climate in the western Great Lakes national parks and lakeshores: Implications for future climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Davis, Margaret; Douglas, Christine; Cole, K.L.; Winkler, Marge; Flaknes, Robyn

2000-01-01

We reconstruct Holocene climate history (last 10,000 years) for each of the U.S. National Park Service units in the western Great Lakes region in order to evaluate their sensitivity to global warming. Annual precipitation, annual temperature, and July and January temperatures were reconstructed by comparing fossil pollen in lake sediment with pollen in surface samples, assuming that ancient climates were similar to modern climate near analogous surface samples. In the early Holocene, most of the parks experienced colder winters, warmer summers, and lower precipitation than today. An exception is Voyageurs National Park in northern Minnesota where, by 8000 years ago, January temperatures were higher than today. The combination of high mean annual temperature and lower precipitation at Voyageurs resulted in a dry period between 8000 and 5000 years ago, similar to the Prairie Period in regions to the south and west. A mid-Holocene warm-dry period also occurred at other northern and central parks but was much less strongly developed. In southern parks there was no clear evidence of a mid-Holocene warm-dry period. These differences suggest that global model predictions of a warm, dry climate in the northern Great Plains under doubled atmospheric CO2 may be more applicable to Voyageurs than to the other parks. The contrast in reconstructed temperatures at Voyageurs and Isle Royale indicates that the ameliorating effect of the Great Lakes on temperatures has been in effect throughout the Holocene and presumably will continue in the future, thus reducing the potential for species loss caused by future temperature extremes. Increased numbers of mesic trees at all of the parks in the late Holocene reflect increasing annual precipitation. This trend toward more mesic conditions began 6000 years ago in the south and 4000 years ago in the north and increased sharply in recent millennia at parks located today in lake-effect snow belts. This suggests that lake-effect snowfall is sensitive to continental-scale changes in climate and could be affected by future climate change. Plant and animal species sensitive to changes in the moisture regime could thus be endangered within the Great Lakes parks.

Effect of Using Extreme Years in Hydrologic Model Calibration Performance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goktas, R. K.; Tezel, U.; Kargi, P. G.; Ayvaz, T.; Tezyapar, I.; Mesta, B.; Kentel, E.

2017-12-01

Hydrological models are useful in predicting and developing management strategies for controlling the system behaviour. Specifically they can be used for evaluating streamflow at ungaged catchments, effect of climate change, best management practices on water resources, or identification of pollution sources in a watershed. This study is a part of a TUBITAK project named "Development of a geographical information system based decision-making tool for water quality management of Ergene Watershed using pollutant fingerprints". Within the scope of this project, first water resources in Ergene Watershed is studied. Streamgages found in the basin are identified and daily streamflow measurements are obtained from State Hydraulic Works of Turkey. Streamflow data is analysed using box-whisker plots, hydrographs and flow-duration curves focusing on identification of extreme periods, dry or wet. Then a hydrological model is developed for Ergene Watershed using HEC-HMS in the Watershed Modeling System (WMS) environment. The model is calibrated for various time periods including dry and wet ones and the performance of calibration is evaluated using Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE), correlation coefficient, percent bias (PBIAS) and root mean square error. It is observed that calibration period affects the model performance, and the main purpose of the development of the hydrological model should guide calibration period selection. Acknowledgement: This study is funded by The Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey (TUBITAK) under Project Number 115Y064.

An assessment of precipitation and surface air temperature over China by regional climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Xueyuan; Tang, Jianping; Niu, Xiaorui; Wang, Shuyu

2016-12-01

An analysis of a 20-year summer time simulation of present-day climate (1989-2008) over China using four regional climate models coupled with different land surface models is carried out. The climatic means, interannual variability, linear trends, and extremes are examined, with focus on precipitation and near surface air temperature. The models are able to reproduce the basic features of the observed summer mean precipitation and temperature over China and the regional detail due to topographic forcing. Overall, the model performance is better for temperature than that of precipitation. The models reasonably grasp the major anomalies and standard deviations over China and the five subregions studied. The models generally reproduce the spatial pattern of high interannual variability over wet regions, and low variability over the dry regions. The models also capture well the variable temperature gradient increase to the north by latitude. Both the observed and simulated linear trend of precipitation shows a drying tendency over the Yangtze River Basin and wetting over South China. The models capture well the relatively small temperature trends in large areas of China. The models reasonably simulate the characteristics of extreme precipitation indices of heavy rain days and heavy precipitation fraction. Most of the models also performed well in capturing both the sign and magnitude of the daily maximum and minimum temperatures over China.

Extremes of Survival Achieved by the Radiophile Deinococcus Radiodurans: A Model for Microbial Life on Mars

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Daly, M.; Sridhar, R.; Richmond, R.

1999-01-01

Deinococcus radiodurans is an extremophile in more than one defined way. First it is extreme in its resistance to freeze drying. Second it is probably uniquely extreme on Earth in its resistance to ionizing radiation. The polyextremophilic capacity of D. radiodurans will be considered. The selection pressures on Mars will then be considered in relation to D. radiodurans in order to support a hypothesis that if microbial life exists on Mars, then it likely includes polyextremophiles.

Temperature and moisture conditions for life in the extreme arid region of the Atacama desert: four years of observations including the El Nino of 1997-1998

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

McKay, Christopher P.; Friedmann, E. Imre; Gomez-Silva, Benito; Caceres-Villanueva, Luis; Andersen, Dale T.; Landheim, Ragnhild

2003-01-01

The Atacama along the Pacific Coast of Chile and Peru is one of the driest and possibly oldest deserts in the world. It represents an extreme habitat for life on Earth and is an analog for life in dry conditions on Mars. We report on four years (September 1994-October 1998) of climate and moisture data from the extreme arid region of the Atacama. Our data are focused on understanding moisture sources and their role in creating suitable environments for photosynthetic microorganisms in the desert surface. The average air temperature was 16.5 degrees C and 16.6 degrees C in 1995 and 1996, respectively. The maximum air temperature recorded was 37.9 degrees C, and the minimum was -5.7 degrees C. Annual average sunlight was 336 and 335 W m(-2) in 1995 and 1996, respectively. Winds averaged a few meters per second, with strong fohn winds coming from the west exceeding 12 m s(-1). During our 4 years of observation there was only one significant rain event of 2.3 mm, which occurred near midnight local time. We suggest that this event was a rainout of a heavy fog. It is of interest that the strong El Nino of 1997-1998 brought heavy rainfall to the deserts of Peru, but did not bring significant rain to the central Atacama in Chile. Dew occurred at our station frequently following high nighttime relative humidity, but is not a significant source of moisture in the soil or under stones. Groundwater also does not contribute to surface moisture. Only the one rain event of 2.3 mm resulted in liquid water in the soil and beneath stones for a total of only 65-85 h over 4 years. The paucity of liquid water under stones is consistent with the apparent absence of hypolithic (under-stone) cyanobacteria, the only known primary producers in such extreme deserts.

The analysis on the extreme water shortage event in Hangzhou in 1247 AD and its natural and social backgrounds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Haolong

2017-04-01

Yangtze River Delta locating in the north subtropics of China, is famous for numerous rivers and lakes. Because of East Asian monsoon rainfall, flood is always the most primary disaster in this area during the past 2000 years. However, there were also several extreme water shortage events in the history. Example in Hangzhou in 1247 AD was such a typical year in the area. In the paper, the severity of this extreme event and the closely tied spatiotemporal variation of drought in Yangtze River Delta was quantitatively analyzed on the basis of documentary records during Southern Song Dynasty. Furtherly, its natural and social backgrounds was discussed. The result s are summarized as follows: 1) Wells, canals and West Lake of Hangzhou dried up in 1247 AD. The water level of canals was about 1.32-2.64 m lower than that in the normal year. The reduction of storage capacity in West Lake was 21 million stere or so. 2) The droughts in Yangtze River Delta was moderate on the whole, but that in the west of Zhejiang Province was severe. The drought in Hangzhou lasted from the 2nd lunar month to the end of this year. 3) The water shortage event was closely related to the quick going north and farther northern location of summer rain belt. The descending sea-level weakening the tide in Qiantang River, can also reduce the supply of water resources. 4) The quick growth of urban population, excessive aquaculture, and ineffective government supervision played an important social role in the process of this event. In the all, this extreme water shortage event was the result of both natural and social factors. This research is very helpful for the futuristic water resource forecast in Yangtze River Delta, and it also affords us lessons on the risk management and heritage conservation that merit attention. Key Words: Hangzhou, 1247 AD, water shortage, canal, West Lake, natural factors, social factors

Appropriateness of culinary preparations of potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) varieties and relation to sensory and physicochemical properties.

PubMed

Seefeldt, Helene F; Tønning, Erik; Wiking, Lars; Thybo, Anette K

2011-02-01

Appropriateness of potatoes for culinary preparations is defined as the optimal use of a given variety for a specific culinary preparation. The aim of this study was to examine the sensory attributes and physicochemical characteristics (dry matter content, starch properties, instrumental texture) of 11 potato varieties in relation to their appropriateness for boiling, oven-frying or mashing. The reproducibility of appropriateness was studied by including the effect of two growing conditions and yearly variation combined with internal references. The potato varieties, tested by 31 evaluators in two years, showed three groupings differing in appropriateness, which could be explained by a few sensory attributes: yellowness, mealiness, creaminess and butter taste. The physicochemical data showed a large variation of 23-25% in dry matter content, amylose content and starch granule size and an extreme variation in texture hardness. High reproducibility was found in the ranking of potatoes across years and culinary preparations. Hence, if a variety was judged well appropriate for boiled potatoes, it was also judged well appropriate as mashed or oven-fried potatoes. This study showed the relevance of using sensory descriptors appropriateness in an objective manner. A few sensory descriptors can be used in consumer-labelling appropriateness of potatoes. 2010 Society of Chemical Industry.

Catastrophic Drought in the Afro-Asian Monsoon Region During Heinrich Event 1

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stager, J. Curt; Ryves, David B.; Chase, Brian M.; Pausata, Francesco S. R.

2011-03-01

Between 15,000 and 18,000 years ago, large amounts of ice and meltwater entered the North Atlantic during Heinrich stadial 1. This caused substantial regional cooling, but major climatic impacts also occurred in the tropics. Here, we demonstrate that the height of this stadial, about 16,000 to 17,000 years ago (Heinrich event 1), coincided with one of the most extreme and widespread megadroughts of the past 50,000 years or more in the Afro-Asian monsoon region, with potentially serious consequences for Paleolithic cultures. Late Quaternary tropical drying commonly is attributed to southward drift of the intertropical convergence zone, but the broad geographic range of the Heinrich event 1 megadrought suggests that severe, systemic weakening of Afro-Asian rainfall systems also occurred, probably in response to sea surface cooling.

Drought sensitivity of Amazonian carbon balance revealed by atmospheric measurements.

PubMed

Gatti, L V; Gloor, M; Miller, J B; Doughty, C E; Malhi, Y; Domingues, L G; Basso, L S; Martinewski, A; Correia, C S C; Borges, V F; Freitas, S; Braz, R; Anderson, L O; Rocha, H; Grace, J; Phillips, O L; Lloyd, J

2014-02-06

Feedbacks between land carbon pools and climate provide one of the largest sources of uncertainty in our predictions of global climate. Estimates of the sensitivity of the terrestrial carbon budget to climate anomalies in the tropics and the identification of the mechanisms responsible for feedback effects remain uncertain. The Amazon basin stores a vast amount of carbon, and has experienced increasingly higher temperatures and more frequent floods and droughts over the past two decades. Here we report seasonal and annual carbon balances across the Amazon basin, based on carbon dioxide and carbon monoxide measurements for the anomalously dry and wet years 2010 and 2011, respectively. We find that the Amazon basin lost 0.48 ± 0.18 petagrams of carbon per year (Pg C yr(-1)) during the dry year but was carbon neutral (0.06 ± 0.1 Pg C yr(-1)) during the wet year. Taking into account carbon losses from fire by using carbon monoxide measurements, we derived the basin net biome exchange (that is, the carbon flux between the non-burned forest and the atmosphere) revealing that during the dry year, vegetation was carbon neutral. During the wet year, vegetation was a net carbon sink of 0.25 ± 0.14 Pg C yr(-1), which is roughly consistent with the mean long-term intact-forest biomass sink of 0.39 ± 0.10 Pg C yr(-1) previously estimated from forest censuses. Observations from Amazonian forest plots suggest the suppression of photosynthesis during drought as the primary cause for the 2010 sink neutralization. Overall, our results suggest that moisture has an important role in determining the Amazonian carbon balance. If the recent trend of increasing precipitation extremes persists, the Amazon may become an increasing carbon source as a result of both emissions from fires and the suppression of net biome exchange by drought.

Seasonal Differences in the CO2 Exchange of a Short-Hydroperiod Florida Everglades Marsh

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schedlbauer, J. L.; Oberbauer, S. F.; Starr, G.; Jimenez, K. L.

2009-12-01

Although wetlands are among the world’s most productive ecosystems, little is known of long-term CO2 exchange in tropical and subtropical wetlands. As human pressure on wetlands increases and climate change proceeds, there is growing need to increase our knowledge of wetland ecosystem function. The Everglades is a highly managed wetlands complex occupying >6000 km2 in south Florida. This ecosystem is oligotrophic, but extremely high rates of productivity have been previously reported. To evaluate annual and seasonal (dry vs. wet season) ecosystem production, CO2 exchange was determined by eddy covariance in a short-hydroperiod marl marsh. Rates of net ecosystem exchange and ecosystem respiration were small year-round and declined in the wet season relative to the dry season. Inundation submerged approximately half of the marsh’s leaf area, substantially limiting gross ecosystem production. While light and air temperature exerted the primary controls on net ecosystem exchange and ecosystem respiration in the dry season, inundation weakened these relationships. The ecosystem shifted from a CO2 sink in the dry season to a CO2 source in the wet season; however, the marsh was a small carbon sink on an annual basis. Net ecosystem production, ecosystem respiration, and gross ecosystem production were -27.9, 394.3, and 422.2 g C m-2 year-1, respectively. Unexpectedly low CO2 flux rates and annual production distinguish the Everglades from many other wetlands. Nonetheless, impending changes in water management and climate are likely to alter the CO2 balance of this wetland and may increase the source strength of these extensive short-hydroperiod marshes.

Effect of climate change on stormwater runoff characteristics and treatment efficiencies of stormwater retention ponds: a case study from Denmark using TSS and Cu as indicator pollutants.

PubMed

Sharma, Anitha Kumari; Vezzaro, Luca; Birch, Heidi; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen

2016-01-01

This study investigated the potential effect of climate changes on stormwater pollution runoff characteristics and the treatment efficiency of a stormwater retention pond in a 95 ha catchment in Denmark. An integrated dynamic stormwater runoff quality and treatment model was used to simulate two scenarios: one representing the current climate and another representing a future climate scenario with increased intensity of extreme rainfall events and longer dry weather periods. 100-year long high-resolution rainfall time series downscaled from regional climate model projections were used as input. The collected data showed that total suspended solids (TSS) and total copper (Cu) concentrations in stormwater runoff were related to flow, rainfall intensity and antecedent dry period. Extreme peak intensities resulted in high particulate concentrations and high loads but did not affect dissolved Cu concentrations. The future climate simulations showed an increased frequency of higher flows and increased total concentrations discharged from the catchment. The effect on the outlet from the pond was an increase in the total concentrations (TSS and Cu), whereas no major effect was observed on dissolved Cu concentrations. Similar results are expected for other particle bound pollutants including metals and slowly biodegradable organic substances such as PAH. Acute toxicity impacts to downstream surface waters seem to be only slightly affected. A minor increase in yearly loads of sediments and particle-bound pollutants is expected, mainly caused by large events disrupting the settling process. This may be important to consider for the many stormwater retention ponds existing in Denmark and across the world.

Human impacts of droughts, floods and other extremes in South Moravia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dolák, Lukáš; Brázdil, Rudolf; Řezníčková, Ladislava; Valášek, Hubert; Chromá, Kateřina

2015-04-01

Chronicles and taxation records related to tax relief for farmers whose livelihoods were affected by droughts, floods and other hydrometeorological extremes (HMEs) in South Moravia (the Czech Republic) in the 17th-20th centuries are used to study the impacts of HMEs on the socio-economic situation of the farmers. The first flood event was reported in 1652 on the River Morava and extraordinary dry years were documented since 1718 - in this year the River Dyje totally dried up. Moreover, downpours, hailstorms, windstorms, late frosts and blizzards caused a great damage during the period studied as well and in many cases had a negative effect to human society. The impacts of HMEs are here classified into three categories: agricultural production, material property and the socio-economic situation of individual farmers. Direct impacts took the form of losses to property, supplies and farming equipment, and further of bad field and fruit yields, depletion of livestock, damage to fields and meadows, lack of water for daily use, watermills and transport and increased threat of wildfires. Simple lack of income, debt, impoverishment, reduction in livestock and deterioration in field fertility were among the longer-term effects. Impacts are discussed with respect to approaches to mitigation of the negative effects of HMEs and to problems associated with obtaining support and in terms of a hierarchy of consequent impacts. A great number of records related to HMEs, preserved in the Moravian Land Archives in Brno and other district South Moravian archives, represents a rich source of data allowing re-discovering of historical natural disasters. The paper embodies a methodological approach that is intended for the analysis of HME impacts in South Moravia from the 17th to the 20th centuries.

300 years of hydrological records and societal responses to droughts and floods on the Pacific coast of Central America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guevara-Murua, Alvaro; Williams, Caroline A.; Hendy, Erica J.; Imbach, Pablo

2018-02-01

The management of hydrological extremes and impacts on society is inadequately understood because of the combination of short-term hydrological records, an equally short-term assessment of societal responses and the complex multi-directional relationships between the two over longer timescales. Rainfall seasonality and inter-annual variability on the Pacific coast of Central America is high due to the passage of the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Here we reconstruct hydrological variability and demonstrate the potential for assessing societal impacts by drawing on documentary sources from the cities of Santiago de Guatemala (now Antigua Guatemala) and Guatemala de la Asunción (now Guatemala City) over the period from 1640 to 1945. City and municipal council meetings provide a rich source of information dating back to the beginning of Spanish colonisation in the 16th century. We use almost continuous sources from 1640 AD onwards, including > 190 volumes of Actas de Cabildo and Actas Municipales (minutes of meetings of the city and municipal councils) held by the Archivo Histórico de la Municipalidad de Antigua Guatemala (AHMAG) and the Archivo General de Centro América (AGCA) in Guatemala City. For this 305-year period (with the exception of a total of 11 years during which the books were either missing or damaged), information relating to Catholic rogation ceremonies and reports of flooding events and crop shortages were used to classify the annual rainy season (May to October) on a five-point scale from very wet to very dry. In total, 12 years of very wet conditions, 25 years of wetter than usual conditions, 34 years of drier conditions and 21 years of very dry conditions were recorded. An extended drier period from the 1640s to the 1740s was identified and two shorter periods (the 1820s and the 1840s) were dominated by dry conditions. Wetter conditions dominated the 1760s-1810s and possibly record more persistent La Niña conditions that are typically associated with higher precipitation over the Pacific coast of Central America. The 1640s-1740s dry period coincides with the Little Ice Age and the associated southward displacement of the ITCZ.

Casting and Splinting

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-08-21

mcludmg suggost1ons klr reducing lite burden, to the Department ar Defense. Executive Service Director> lte (07,IJ4-0188). Respondents should be...Orthoglass) Casting Material );;:- Fiberglass , .... • \\ \\ General Principles )- Measure out dry material at extremity being treated ~Plaster...shrinks slightly when wet; If too long can fold ends back ~Can be measured on contralateral extremity > Apply 2-3 layers of webril, avoid wrinkles

Interspecific interference competition at the resource patch scale: do large herbivores spatially avoid elephants while accessing water?

PubMed

Ferry, Nicolas; Dray, Stéphane; Fritz, Hervé; Valeix, Marion

2016-11-01

Animals may anticipate and try to avoid, at some costs, physical encounters with other competitors. This may ultimately impact their foraging distribution and intake rates. Such cryptic interference competition is difficult to measure in the field, and extremely little is known at the interspecific level. We tested the hypothesis that smaller species avoid larger ones because of potential costs of interference competition and hence expected them to segregate from larger competitors at the scale of a resource patch. We assessed fine-scale spatial segregation patterns between three African herbivore species (zebra Equus quagga, kudu Tragelaphus strepsiceros and giraffe Giraffa camelopardalis) and a megaherbivore, the African elephant Loxodonta africana, at the scale of water resource patches in the semi-arid ecosystem of Hwange National Park, Zimbabwe. Nine waterholes were monitored every two weeks during the dry season of a drought year, and observational scans of the spatial distribution of all herbivores were performed every 15 min. We developed a methodological approach to analyse such fine-scale spatial data. Elephants increasingly used waterholes as the dry season progressed, as did the probability of co-occurrence and agonistic interaction with elephants for the three study species. All three species segregated from elephants at the beginning of the dry season, suggesting a spatial avoidance of elephants and the existence of costs of being close to them. However, contrarily to our expectations, herbivores did not segregate from elephants the rest of the dry season but tended to increasingly aggregate with elephants as the dry season progressed. We discuss these surprising results and the existence of a trade-off between avoidance of interspecific interference competition and other potential factors such as access to quality water, which may have relative associated costs that change with the time of the year. © 2016 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2016 British Ecological Society.

Draft genome sequence of Paenisporosarcina sp. strain TG-14, a psychrophilic bacterium isolated from sediment-laden stratified basal ice from Taylor Glacier, McMurdo Dry Valleys, Antarctica.

PubMed

Koh, Hye Yeon; Lee, Sung Gu; Lee, Jun Hyuck; Doyle, Shawn; Christner, Brent C; Kim, Hak Jun

2012-12-01

The psychrophilic bacterium Paenisporosarcina sp. TG-14 was isolated from sediment-laden stratified basal ice from Taylor Glacier, McMurdo Dry Valleys, Antarctica. Here we report the draft genome sequence of this strain, which may provide useful information on the cold adaptation mechanism in extremely variable environments.

Tropospheric dry layers in the tropical western Pacific: comparisons of GPS radio occultation with multiple data sets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rieckh, Therese; Anthes, Richard; Randel, William; Ho, Shu-Peng; Foelsche, Ulrich

2017-03-01

We use GPS radio occultation (RO) data to investigate the structure and temporal behavior of extremely dry, high-ozone tropospheric air in the tropical western Pacific during the 6-week period of the CONTRAST (CONvective TRansport of Active Species in the Tropics) experiment (January and February 2014). Our analyses are aimed at testing whether the RO method is capable of detecting these extremely dry layers and evaluating comparisons with in situ measurements, satellite observations, and model analyses. We use multiple data sources as comparisons, including CONTRAST research aircraft profiles, radiosonde profiles, AIRS (Atmospheric Infrared Sounder) satellite retrievals, and profiles extracted from the ERA (ERA-Interim reanalysis) and the GFS (US National Weather Service Global Forecast System) analyses, as well as MTSAT-2 satellite images. The independent and complementary radiosonde, aircraft, and RO data provide high vertical resolution observations of the dry layers. However, they all have limitations. The coverage of the radiosonde data is limited by having only a single station in this oceanic region; the aircraft data are limited in their temporal and spatial coverage; and the RO data are limited in their number and horizontal resolution over this period. However, nearby observations from the three types of data are highly consistent with each other and with the lower-vertical-resolution AIRS profiles. They are also consistent with the ERA and GFS data. We show that the RO data, used here for the first time to study this phenomenon, contribute significant information on the water vapor content and are capable of detecting layers in the tropics and subtropics with extremely low humidity (less than 10 %), independent of the retrieval used to extract moisture information. Our results also verify the quality of the ERA and GFS data sets, giving confidence to the reanalyses and their use in diagnosing the full four-dimensional structure of the dry layers.

Phylogeography of microbial phototrophs in the dry valleys of the high Himalayas and Antarctica.

PubMed

Schmidt, S K; Lynch, R C; King, A J; Karki, D; Robeson, M S; Nagy, L; Williams, M W; Mitter, M S; Freeman, K R

2011-03-07

High-elevation valleys in dry areas of the Himalayas are among the most extreme, yet least explored environments on Earth. These barren, rocky valleys are subjected to year-round temperature fluctuations across the freezing point and very low availability of water and nutrients, causing previous workers to hypothesize that no photoautotrophic life (primary producers) exists in these locations. However, there has been no work using modern biogeochemical or culture-independent molecular methods to test the hypothesis that photoautotrophs are absent from high Himalayan soil systems. Here, we show that although microbial biomass levels are as low as those of the Dry Valleys of Antarctica, there are abundant microbial photoautotrophs, displaying unexpected phylogenetic diversity, in barren soils from just below the permanent ice line of the central Himalayas. Furthermore, we discovered that one of the dominant algal clades from the high Himalayas also contains the dominant algae in culture-independent surveys of both soil and ice samples from the Dry Valleys of Antarctica, revealing an unexpected link between these environmentally similar but geographically very distant systems. Phylogenetic and biogeographic analyses demonstrated that although this algal clade is globally distributed to other high-altitude and high-latitude soils, it shows significant genetic isolation by geographical distance patterns, indicating local adaptation and perhaps speciation in each region. Our results are the first to demonstrate the remarkable similarities of microbial life of arid soils of Antarctica and the high Himalayas. Our findings are a starting point for future comparative studies of the dry valleys of the Himalayas and Antarctica that will yield new insights into the cold and dry limits to life on Earth.

Subsurface Salts in Antarctic Dry Valley Soils

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Englert, P.; Bishop, J. L.; Gibson, E. K.; Koeberl, C.

2013-01-01

The distribution of water-soluble ions, major and minor elements, and other parameters were examined to determine the extent and effects of chemical weathering on cold desert soils. Patterns at the study sites support theories of multiple salt forming processes, including marine aerosols and chemical weathering of mafic minerals. Periodic solar-mediated ionization of atmospheric nitrogen might also produce high nitrate concentrations found in older sediments. Chemical weathering, however, was the major contributor of salts in Antarctic Dry Valleys. The Antarctic Dry Valleys represent a unique analog for Mars, as they are extremely cold and dry desert environments. Similarities in the climate, surface geology, and chemical properties of the Dry Valleys to that of Mars imply the possible presence of these soil formation mechanisms on Mars, other planets and icy satellites.

Drying and color characteristics of coriander foliage using convective thin-layer and microwave drying.

PubMed

Shaw, Mark; Meda, Venkatesh; Tabil, Lope; Opoku, Anthony

2007-01-01

Heat sensitive properties (aromatic, medicinal, color) provide herbs and spices with their high market value. In order to prevent extreme loss of heat sensitive properties when drying herbs, they are normally dried at low temperatures for longer periods of time to preserve these sensory properties. High energy consumption often results from drying herbs over a long period. Coriander (Coriandrum sativum L., Umbelliferae) was dehydrated in two different drying units (thin layer convection and microwave dryers) in order to compare the drying and final product quality (color) characteristics. Microwave drying of the coriander foliage was faster than convective drying. The entire drying process took place in the falling rate period for both microwave and convective dried samples. The drying rate for the microwave dried samples ranged from 42.3 to 48.2% db/min and that of the convective dried samples ranged from 7.1 to 12.5% db/min. The fresh sample color had the lowest L value at 26.83 with higher L values for all dried samples. The results show that convective thin layer dried coriander samples exhibited a significantly greater color change than microwave dried coriander samples. The color change index values for the microwave dried samples ranged from 2.67 to 3.27 and that of the convective dried samples varied from 4.59 to 6.58.

Prioritizing Wetlands for Waterbirds in a Boom and Bust System: Waterbird Refugia and Breeding in the Murray-Darling Basin

PubMed Central

Bino, Gilad; Kingsford, Richard T.; Porter, John

2015-01-01

Dryland rivers have considerable flow variability, producing complex ecosystems, processes, and communities of organisms that vary over space and time. They are also among the more vulnerable of the world’s ecosystems. A key strategy for conservation of dryland rivers is identifying and maintaining key sites for biodiversity conservation, particularly protecting the quantity and quality of flow and flooding regimes. Extreme variability considerably challenges freshwater conservation planning. We systematically prioritised wetlands for waterbirds (simultaneously for 52 species), across about 13.5% of the Murray-Darling Basin (1,061,469 km2), using a 30-year record of systematic aerial surveys of waterbird populations. Nine key wetlands in this area, primarily lakes, floodplains, and swamps, consistently contributed to a representation target (80%) of total abundances of all 52 waterbird species. The long temporal span of our data included dramatic availability (i.e., booms) and scarcity (i.e., busts) of water, providing a unique opportunity to test prioritisation at extremes of variation. These extremes represented periods when waterbirds were breeding or concentrating on refugia, varying wetland prioritisation. In dry years, important wetlands for waterbirds were riverine and lacustrine (12 wetlands) but this changed in wet years to lacustrine and palustrine (8 wetlands). Such variation in ecosystem condition substantially changes the relative importance of individual wetlands for waterbirds during boom and bust phases. Incorporating this variability is necessary for effective conservation of Murray-Darling Basin waterbirds, with considerable generality for other similarly variable systems around the world. PMID:26161652

Natural Hazards in a Changing World: A Case for Ecosystem-Based Management

PubMed Central

Nel, Jeanne L.; Le Maitre, David C.; Nel, Deon C.; Reyers, Belinda; Archibald, Sally; van Wilgen, Brian W.; Forsyth, Greg G.; Theron, Andre K.; O’Farrell, Patrick J.; Kahinda, Jean-Marc Mwenge; Engelbrecht, Francois A.; Kapangaziwiri, Evison; van Niekerk, Lara; Barwell, Laurie

2014-01-01

Communities worldwide are increasingly affected by natural hazards such as floods, droughts, wildfires and storm-waves. However, the causes of these increases remain underexplored, often attributed to climate changes or changes in the patterns of human exposure. This paper aims to quantify the effect of climate change, as well as land cover change, on a suite of natural hazards. Changes to four natural hazards (floods, droughts, wildfires and storm-waves) were investigated through scenario-based models using land cover and climate change drivers as inputs. Findings showed that human-induced land cover changes are likely to increase natural hazards, in some cases quite substantially. Of the drivers explored, the uncontrolled spread of invasive alien trees was estimated to halve the monthly flows experienced during extremely dry periods, and also to double fire intensities. Changes to plantation forestry management shifted the 1∶100 year flood event to a 1∶80 year return period in the most extreme scenario. Severe 1∶100 year storm-waves were estimated to occur on an annual basis with only modest human-induced coastal hardening, predominantly from removal of coastal foredunes and infrastructure development. This study suggests that through appropriate land use management (e.g. clearing invasive alien trees, re-vegetating clear-felled forests, and restoring coastal foredunes), it would be possible to reduce the impacts of natural hazards to a large degree. It also highlights the value of intact and well-managed landscapes and their role in reducing the probabilities and impacts of extreme climate events. PMID:24806527

Coping with droughts and floods: A Case study of Kanyemba, Mbire District, Zimbabwe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bola, G.; Mabiza, C.; Goldin, J.; Kujinga, K.; Nhapi, I.; Makurira, H.; Mashauri, D.

Most of Southern Africa is affected by extreme weather events, droughts and floods being the most common. The frequency of floods and droughts in Southern Africa in general, of which the Zambezi River Basin is part of, has been linked to climate change. Droughts and floods impact on the natural environment, and directly and indirectly impact on livelihoods. In the Middle Zambezi River Basin, which is located between Kariba and Cahora Bassa dams, extreme weather events are exacerbated by human activities, in particular the operation of both the Kariba and the Cahora Bassa reservoirs. To understand better, whether, and in what ways extreme weather events impact on livelihoods, this study used both quantitative and qualitative research methods to analyse rainfall variability and coping strategies used by households in the river basin. Data collection was done using semi-structured interviews, focus group discussions and structured questionnaires which were administered to 144 households. An analysis of rainfall variability and Cahora Bassa water level over 23 years was carried out. The study found that perceptions of households were that average rainfall has decreased over the years, and dry-spells have become more frequent. Furthermore, households perceived flood events to have increased over the last two decades. However, the analysis of rainfall variability revealed that the average rainfall received between 1988 and 2011 had not changed but the frequency of dry-spells and floods had increased. The occurrence of floods in the study area was found to be linked to heavy local rain and backflow from Cahora Bassa dam. The study found that households adopted a number of strategies to cope with droughts and floods, such as vegetable farming and crop production in the floodplain, taking on local jobs that brought in wages, planting late and livestock disposals. Some households also resorted to out-migration on a daily basis to Zambia or Mozambique. The study concluded that coping mechanisms were found to be inflexible and poorly suited to adapt to floods and droughts. The study recommends the implementation of adaptation measures such as the cultivation of drought-resistant crop varieties, irrigation and off-farm employment opportunities.

A palaeo-ecological assessment of the resilience of south-east Asian dry forests to monsoon extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamilton, R. J.; Penny, D.; Maxwell, A.

2014-12-01

Predictions that the frequency and intensity of monsoon extremes will rise in coming decades are being made with increasing confidence. There is concern that these climatic changes may drive tropical monsoon forests across critical thresholds, triggering ecological regime shifts. The global consequences of such shifts, coupled with knowledge gaps around the nature and intensity of drivers needed to instigate ecosystem reorganization, highlights the need for research that analyses the resilience of these seasonal forest to future climatic change. While work has indicated that these forests may be susceptible to reorganization to savanna under changing precipitation regimes, the interactions between climatic drivers and ecosystem response is still poorly understood, particularly in the seasonal forests outside of the neo- and afro-tropics. This study presents results on the threshold dynamics of the extensive south-east Asian seasonally dry tropical forest ecoregion (SASDTF) through analysis of plant microfossils and charcoal archived in sediment cores extracted from two tropical crater lakes in Cambodia. These data are compared with regional paleoclimatic reconstructions to gauge past forest response to monsoon extremes, and provide insight into the magnitude and duration of climatic events most likely to result in the breaching of critical thresholds. Our results suggest that, at a biome level, the SASDTF appears resilient to low-amplitude climatic variations over millennia, despite instrumental observations of strong precipitation-tree cover coupling in global dry forest resilience models.

Climate change and northern prairie wetlands: Simulations of long-term dynamics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Poiani, Karen A.; Johnson, W. Carter; Swanson, George A.; Winter, Thomas C.

1996-01-01

A mathematical model (WETSIM 2.0) was used to simulate wetland hydrology and vegetation dynamics over a 32-yr period (1961–1992) in a North Dakota prairie wetland. A hydrology component of the model calculated changes in water storage based on precipitation, evapotranspiration, snowpack, surface runoff, and subsurface inflow. A spatially explicit vegetation component in the model calculated changes in distribution of vegetative cover and open water, depending on water depth, seasonality, and existing type of vegetation.The model reproduced four known dry periods and one extremely wet period during the three decades. One simulated dry period in the early 1980s did not actually occur. Simulated water levels compared favorably with continuous observed water levels outside the calibration period (1990–1992). Changes in vegetative cover were realistic except for years when simulated water levels were significantly different than actual levels. These generally positive results support the use of the model for exploring the effects of possible climate changes on wetland resources.

Slip initiation in alternative and slip-resistant footwear.

PubMed

Chander, Harish; Wade, Chip; Garner, John C; Knight, Adam C

2017-12-01

Slips occur as a result of failure of normal locomotion. The purpose of this study is to analyze the impact of alternative footwear (Crocs™, flip-flops) and an industry standard low-top slip-resistant shoe (SRS) under multiple gait trials (normal dry, unexpected slip, alert slip and expected slip) on lower extremity joint kinematics, kinetics and muscle activity. Eighteen healthy male participants (age: 22.28 ± 2.2 years; height: 177.66 ± 6.9 cm; mass: 79.27 ± 7.6 kg) completed the study. Kinematic, kinetic and muscle activity variables were analyzed using a 3(footwear) × 4(gait trials) repeated-measures analysis of variance at p = 0.05. Greater plantar flexion angles, lower ground reaction forces and greater muscle activity were seen on slip trials with the alternative footwear. During slip events, SRS closely resembled normal dry biomechanics, suggesting it to be a safer footwear choice compared with alternative footwear.

16-year Climatology of Cold-Season Extreme Precipitation-Drought Statistics derived from NLDAS Precipitation Data Over the Conterminous U.S.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matsui, T.; Mocko, D. M.

2015-12-01

We examine radar-gauge merged 1/8-degree hourly precipitation data from the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) Phase-II datasets from 1997 to 2013. For each 1/8 grid, we derived statistics of single-event storm duration, total accumulated precipitation, and dry period between each storm events during cold (Oct-Mar) seasons, and histogram of event-by-event statistics are used to estimate the thresholds for extreme (below-1%) and very extreme (below-0.1%) events. In this way, we constructed unique climatology maps of the extreme precipitation-drought frequencies and probability density functions. This climatology map depicted that cold-season extremely heavy precipitation events are populated over West Coast, Deep South, and coastal zone of North East, suggesting impacts of land-falling maritime storm systems. Simultaneously, datasets depicts that long-extended precipitation events are mostly populated over North West, and lower Mississippi Basin up to North East centered at Appalachian Mountains, resembling east Pacific storm tracks and nor'easter storm tracks, respectively. Furthermore, season-by-season statistics of these extreme events were examined for each National Climate Assessment (NCA) regimes in comparison with a number of major atmospheric oscillations and teleconnection patterns as well as Arctic Amplifications. Index of Arctic Amplification includes variability of 500mb zonal wind speed and pole-to-midlatitude differences in atmospheric thickness, linking to the phase speed of the Rossby wave. Finally, we present ensemble correlations scores, and discuss the physical processes and underlying mechanisms for their key characteristics as well as the predictive skill and predictability of the extreme events from sub-seasonal to interannual scales during cold seasons.

Streamflow variability in the Chilean Temperate-Mediterranean climate transition (35°S-42°S) during the last 400 years inferred from tree-ring records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muñoz, Ariel A.; González-Reyes, Alvaro; Lara, Antonio; Sauchyn, David; Christie, Duncan; Puchi, Paulina; Urrutia-Jalabert, Rocío; Toledo-Guerrero, Isadora; Aguilera-Betti, Isabella; Mundo, Ignacio; Sheppard, Paul R.; Stahle, Daniel; Villalba, Ricardo; Szejner, Paul; LeQuesne, Carlos; Vanstone, Jessica

2016-12-01

As rainfall in South-Central Chile has decreased in recent decades, local communities and industries have developed an understandable concern about their threatened water supply. Reconstructing streamflows from tree-ring data has been recognized as a useful paleoclimatic tool in providing long-term perspectives on the temporal characteristics of hydroclimate systems. Multi-century long streamflow reconstructions can be compared to relatively short instrumental observations in order to analyze the frequency of low and high water availability through time. In this work, we have developed a Biobío River streamflow reconstruction to explore the long-term hydroclimate variability at the confluence of the Mediterranean-subtropical and the Temperate-humid climate zones, two regions represented by previous reconstructions of the Maule and Puelo Rivers, respectively. In a suite of analyses, the Biobío River reconstruction proves to be more similar to the Puelo River than the Maule River, despite its closer geographic proximity to the latter. This finding corroborates other studies with instrumental data that identify 37.5°S as a latitudinal confluence of two climate zones. The analyzed rivers are affected by climate forcings on interannual and interdecadal time-scales, Tropical (El Niño Southern Oscillation) and Antarctic (Southern Annular Mode; SAM). Longer cycles found, around 80-years, are well correlated only with SAM variation, which explains most of the variance in the Biobío and Puelo rivers. This cycle also has been attributed to orbital forcing by other authors. All three rivers showed an increase in the frequency of extreme high and low flow events in the twentieth century. The most extreme dry and wet years in the instrumental record (1943-2000) were not the most extreme of the past 400-years reconstructed for the three rivers (1600-2000), yet both instrumental record years did rank in the five most extreme of the streamflow reconstructions as a whole. These findings suggest a high level of natural variability in the hydro-climatic conditions of the region, where extremes characterized the twentieth century. This information is particularly useful when evaluating and improving a wide variety of water management models that apply to water resources that are sensitive to agricultural and hydropower industries.

Recent changes (1973-2014 versus 1903-1972) in the flow regime of the Lower Paraná River and current fluvial pollution warnings in its Delta Biosphere Reserve.

PubMed

Puig, Alba; Olguín Salinas, Héctor F; Borús, Juan A

2016-06-01

Alterations in flow regimes of large rivers may originate or increase risks to ecosystems and humans. The Paraná River basin (South America) undergoes human pressures (e.g., heavy damming in the upper basin, deforestation, and mixed pollution) that may affect the water quantity and quality of its terminal Delta (Argentina). In this study, after applying univariate and multivariate change-point detection and trend analyses to the daily data series of flows incoming to the Delta (Paraná-Santa Fe section), flow characteristics were compared by Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration (IHA) and Environmental Flow Components (EFC). Some flood characteristics were also compared from hydrometric levels in the middle Delta (San Pedro station). Chemical and microbiological water variables in the main rivers of the "Paraná Delta" Biosphere Reserve were examined during two extreme hydrologic years (October 2008 to July 2010) to detect potential risk factors in association with hydrologic conditions. In the Lower Paraná River, a historical period (1903-1972) and two more altered periods (1973-1999 wet period and 2000-2014 dry period) were identified. Flow duration curves evidenced different changes in both altered periods, reflecting the joint effect of climatic variability and human influence. The most evident alterations in the flow regime were the lack of record of the extreme-low-flow component, the attenuation of monthly flow seasonality, and the increase in the number of reversals (dry period) and in the variability of maximum and minimum flow dates. These alterations are consistent with the monthly and daily flow regulation by upstream dams evidenced by available data from the current dry period. In the middle Delta, the marked monthly seasonality in flood days decreased only in the wet period. The proportion between the number of flood days exceeding the evacuation level and that of those exceeding the warning level doubled in the wet period but decreased only slightly in the dry period. In the Delta Reserve rivers, concentrations of Escherichia coli, cadmium, lead, iron, manganese, and ammonium exceeded guideline levels under a severe drought and a dispersal of cyanobacteria appeared under a high-flow pulse in La Niña year. The ammonium concentration exceeded the level for human drink with the overbanking flood stage in El Niño year. These occasional detections pose a potential risk to the aquatic life and, especially, to the inhabitants of the Reserve. Flow duration curves, IHA, and EFC are useful tools to evaluate trends or changes of ecological and social relevance in flow regime characteristics.

Recent changes (1973-2014 versus 1903-1972) in the flow regime of the Lower Paraná River and current fluvial pollution warnings in its Delta Biosphere Reserve

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Puig, Alba; Olguín Salinas, Héctor F.; Borús, Juan A.

2016-06-01

Alterations in flow regimes of large rivers may originate or increase risks to ecosystems and humans. The Paraná River basin (South America) undergoes human pressures (e.g., heavy damming in the upper basin, deforestation, and mixed pollution) that may affect the water quantity and quality of its terminal Delta (Argentina). In this study, after applying univariate and multivariate change-point detection and trend analyses to the daily data series of flows incoming to the Delta (Paraná-Santa Fe section), flow characteristics were compared by Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration (IHA) and Environmental Flow Components (EFC). Some flood characteristics were also compared from hydrometric levels in the middle Delta (San Pedro station). Chemical and microbiological water variables in the main rivers of the "Paraná Delta" Biosphere Reserve were examined during two extreme hydrologic years (October 2008 to July 2010) to detect potential risk factors in association with hydrologic conditions. In the Lower Paraná River, a historical period (1903-1972) and two more altered periods (1973-1999 wet period and 2000-2014 dry period) were identified. Flow duration curves evidenced different changes in both altered periods, reflecting the joint effect of climatic variability and human influence. The most evident alterations in the flow regime were the lack of record of the extreme-low-flow component, the attenuation of monthly flow seasonality, and the increase in the number of reversals (dry period) and in the variability of maximum and minimum flow dates. These alterations are consistent with the monthly and daily flow regulation by upstream dams evidenced by available data from the current dry period. In the middle Delta, the marked monthly seasonality in flood days decreased only in the wet period. The proportion between the number of flood days exceeding the evacuation level and that of those exceeding the warning level doubled in the wet period but decreased only slightly in the dry period. In the Delta Reserve rivers, concentrations of Escherichia coli, cadmium, lead, iron, manganese, and ammonium exceeded guideline levels under a severe drought and a dispersal of cyanobacteria appeared under a high-flow pulse in La Niña year. The ammonium concentration exceeded the level for human drink with the overbanking flood stage in El Niño year. These occasional detections pose a potential risk to the aquatic life and, especially, to the inhabitants of the Reserve. Flow duration curves, IHA, and EFC are useful tools to evaluate trends or changes of ecological and social relevance in flow regime characteristics.

Extreme weather events in Iran under a changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alizadeh-Choobari, Omid; Najafi, M. S.

2018-01-01

Observations unequivocally show that Iran has been rapidly warming over recent decades, which in sequence has triggered a wide range of climatic impacts. Meteorological records of several ground stations across Iran with daily temporal resolution for the period 1951-2013 were analyzed to investigate the climate change and its impact on some weather extremes. Iran has warmed by nearly 1.3 °C during the period 1951-2013 (+0.2 °C per decade), with an increase of the minimum temperature at a rate two times that of the maximum. Consequently, an increase in the frequency of heat extremes and a decrease in the frequency of cold extremes have been observed. The annual precipitation has decreased by 8 mm per decade, causing an expansion of Iran's dry zones. Previous studies have pointed out that warming is generally associated with more frequent heavy precipitation because a warmer air can hold more moisture. Nevertheless, warming in Iran has been associated with more frequent light precipitation, but less frequent moderate, heavy and extremely heavy precipitation. This is because in the subtropical dry zones, a longer time is required to recharge the atmosphere with water vapour in a warmer climate, causing more water vapour to be transported from the subtropics to high latitudes before precipitations forms. In addition, the altitude of the condensation level increases in a warmer climate in subtropical regions, causing an overall decrease of precipitation. We argue that changing in the frequency of heavy precipitation in response to warming varies depending on the geographical location. Warming over the dry subtropical regions is associated with a decrease in the frequency of heavy precipitation, while an increase is expected over both subpolar and tropical regions. The warmer climate has also led to the increase in the frequency of both thunderstorms (driven by convective heating) and dust events over Iran.

Global patterns of extreme drought-induced loss in land primary production: Identifying ecological extremes from rain-use efficiency.

PubMed

Du, Ling; Mikle, Nathaniel; Zou, Zhenhua; Huang, Yuanyuan; Shi, Zheng; Jiang, Lifen; McCarthy, Heather R; Liang, Junyi; Luo, Yiqi

2018-07-01

Quantifying the ecological patterns of loss of ecosystem function in extreme drought is important to understand the carbon exchange between the land and atmosphere. Rain-use efficiency [RUE; gross primary production (GPP)/precipitation] acts as a typical indicator of ecosystem function. In this study, a novel method based on maximum rain-use efficiency (RUE max ) was developed to detect losses of ecosystem function globally. Three global GPP datasets from the MODIS remote sensing data (MOD17), ground upscaling FLUXNET observations (MPI-BGC), and process-based model simulations (BESS), and a global gridded precipitation product (CRU) were used to develop annual global RUE datasets for 2001-2011. Large, well-known extreme drought events were detected, e.g. 2003 drought in Europe, 2002 and 2011 drought in the U.S., and 2010 drought in Russia. Our results show that extreme drought-induced loss of ecosystem function could impact 0.9% ± 0.1% of earth's vegetated land per year and was mainly distributed in semi-arid regions. The reduced carbon uptake caused by functional loss (0.14 ± 0.03 PgC/yr) could explain >70% of the interannual variation in GPP in drought-affected areas (p ≤ 0.001). Our results highlight the impact of ecosystem function loss in semi-arid regions with increasing precipitation variability and dry land expansion expected in the future. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Concurrent increases in wet and dry extremes projected in Texas and combined effects on groundwater

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yoon, Jin-Ho; Wang, S.-Y. Simon; Lo, Min-Hui; Wu, Wen-Ying

2018-05-01

The US state of Texas has experienced consecutive flooding events since spring 2015 with devastating consequences, yet these happened only a few years after the record drought of 2011. Identifying the effect of climate variability on regional water cycle extremes, such as the predicted occurrence of La Niña in winter 2017–2018 and its association with drought in Texas, remains a challenge. The present analyses use large-ensemble simulations to project the future of water cycle extremes in Texas and assess their connection with the changing El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnection under global warming. Large-ensemble simulations indicate that both intense drought and excessive precipitation are projected to increase towards the middle of the 21st century, associated with a strengthened effect from ENSO. Despite the precipitation increase projected for the southern Great Plains, groundwater storage is likely to decrease in the long run with diminishing groundwater recharge; this is due to the concurrent increases and strengthening in drought offsetting the effect of added rains. This projection provides implications to short-term climate anomaly in the face of the La Niña and to long-term water resources planning.

Eurasian Heat Waves: Mechanisms and Predictability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wang, Hailan; Schubert, Siegfried; Koster, Randal; Suarez, Max

2012-01-01

This study uses the NASA MERRA reanalysis and GEOS 5 model simulations to examine the causes of Eurasian heat waves including the recent extreme events that occurred in Europe during 2003 and in Russia during 2010. The focus is on the warm season and the part of the Eurasian continent that extends north of about 40oN, or roughly to the north of the mean upper tropospheric jet stream. The results show that such extreme events are an amplification of natural patterns of atmospheric variability that develop over the Eurasian continent as a result of internal atmospheric forcing. The amplification occurs when the wave occasionally becomes locked in place for several weeks to months resulting in extreme heat and drying with the location depending on the phase of the upper atmospheric wave. An ensemble of very long GEOS-S model simulations (spanning the 20th century) forced with observed SST and greenhouse gases show that the model is capable of generating very similar heat waves, and that they have become more intense in the last thirty years as a result of the overall warming of the Asian continent. Sensitivity experiments with perturbed initial conditions indicate that these events have limited predictability.

Trends in rainfall and rainfall-related extremes in the east coast of peninsular Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mayowa, Olaniya Olusegun; Pour, Sahar Hadi; Shahid, Shamsuddin; Mohsenipour, Morteza; Harun, Sobri Bin; Heryansyah, Arien; Ismail, Tarmizi

2015-12-01

The coastlines have been identified as the most vulnerable regions with respect to hydrological hazards as a result of climate change and variability. The east of peninsular Malaysia is not an exception for this, considering the evidence of heavy rainfall resulting in floods as an annual phenomenon and also water scarcity due to long dry spells in the region. This study examines recent trends in rainfall and rainfall- related extremes such as, maximum daily rainfall, number of rainy days, average rainfall intensity, heavy rainfall days, extreme rainfall days, and precipitation concentration index in the east coast of peninsular Malaysia. Recent 40 years (1971-2010) rainfall records from 54 stations along the east coast of peninsular Malaysia have been analyzed using the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test and the Sen's slope method. The Monte Carlo simulation technique has been used to determine the field significance of the regional trends. The results showed that there was a substantial increase in the annual rainfall as well as the rainfall during the monsoon period. Also, there was an increase in the number of heavy rainfall days during the past four decades.

Spatiotemporal Variability of Drought in Pakistan through High-Resolution Daily Gridded In-Situ Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bashir, F.; Zeng, X.; Gupta, H. V.; Hazenberg, P.

2017-12-01

Drought as an extreme event may have far reaching socio-economic impacts on agriculture based economies like Pakistan. Effective assessment of drought requires high resolution spatiotemporally continuous hydrometeorological information. For this purpose, new in-situ daily observations based gridded analyses of precipitation, maximum, minimum and mean temperature and diurnal temperature range are developed, that covers whole Pakistan on 0.01º latitude-longitude for a 54-year period (1960-2013). The number of participating meteorological observatories used in these gridded analyses is 2 to 6 times greater than any other similar product available. This data set is used to identify extreme wet and dry periods and their spatial patterns across Pakistan using Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) and Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). Periodicity of extreme events is estimated at seasonal to decadal scales. Spatiotemporal signatures of drought incidence indicating its extent and longevity in different areas may help water resource managers and policy makers to mitigate the severity of the drought and its impact on food security through suitable adaptive techniques. Moreover, this high resolution gridded in-situ observations of precipitation and temperature is used to evaluate other coarser-resolution gridded products.

Consortia for Improving Medicine with Innovation and Technology

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-12-01

2011 Out - 001585 11-484 Award Closed Hacking, Adam Non-invasive Fasciotomy to Treat Extremity Compartment Syndrome 2012 Out - 001706 12-1173 Award...592 Award Closed 7 Kaushal, Shalesh Low Energy Laser as a Therapeutic for Dry Age-related Macular Degeneration 2011 Out - 001607 11-397 Award Closed...Electrostatic dry powder inhaler for constant dose respiratory drug delivery 2010 Out - 000885 10-512 Award Closed McLaughlin, Bryan An implantable

Extreme Heat

MedlinePlus

... stomach, arms, or legs Actions: Go to a cooler location. Remove excess clothing. Take sips of cool ... above 103 degrees) taken orally; red, hot, and dry skin with no sweat; rapid, strong pulse; dizziness; ...

Climate variability and management impacts on carbon uptake in a temperate pine forest in Eastern Canada using flux data from 2003 to 2013

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arain, M. A.; Brodeur, J. J.; Thorne, R.; Peichl, M.; Huang, S.; Khomik, M.

2014-12-01

Temperate forests play an important role in global carbon cycle. In this study, we evaluate the impacts of climate variability and management regime on carbon uptake in a 75-year old temperate pine (Pinus strobus L.) forest, near Lake Erie in southern Ontario, Canada using eleven years (2003 to 2013) of eddy covariance flux data. These fluxes are compared with similar measurements made in an 80-year-old deciduous (Carolinian) forest, established in 2012. Both forests are managed stands and part of the Turkey Point Flux Station and global Fluxnet. Mean net ecosystem productivity, NEP, in the conifer stand is 145 (range 35 to 277) g C m2 y-1 over the 2003 to 2013 period, while mean NEP in the deciduous stand is 271 (226 and 317) g C m2 y-1 from 2012 to 2013. The study period experienced four distinct extreme weather patterns: warm and dry springs in 2005 and 2012, extremely wet and warm summer in 2006, a summer drought in 2007 and warm summers in 2010 and 2012. In February-March 2012, the conifer stand was selectively thinned and approximately 30% of trees were removed to improve light and water availability and stimulate growth of remaining trees. Thinning reduced NEP in the first post-thinning year, with mean annual NEP of 48 g C m2 y-1 in 2012. Increased supply of dead organic matter and warm temperatures in 2012 increased ecosystem respiration much more than photosynthesis, resulting in lower annual NEP. Heat stress and drought in spring of 2005 reduced NEP of the conifer stand to 35 g C m2 y-1. The impact of this extreme weather event on NEP was similar to that observed in 2012 when the stand experienced a drastic structural change, a dry spring and warm temperatures throughout the growing season. Observed fluxes from this forest and other Fluxnet sites were used to develop and validate a C and N coupled dynamic vegetation model, CLASS-CTEM-N that was applied to simulate terrestrial ecosystem's carbon, water and energy budgets at 0.5 x 0.5 degree spatial resolution across the globe from 1901 to 2010 as part of North American Carbon Program (NACP) site-level and model intercomparison initiatives. The inclusion of the N processes in CLASS-CTEM model has improved model response to changing climate and atmospheric CO2 concentration levels.

Mid-late Holocene climatic changes in the Southwestern Iberian shelf

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gomes, S.; Naughton, F.; Rodrigues, T.; Drago, T.; Sanchez-Goñi, M.; Freitas, C.

2012-04-01

Vegetation (pollen analysis) and alkenone-derived Sea Surface Temperature (SST) reconstructions from a south western Iberian shelf core (POPEI VC2B) (36°53'12,99'' N, 8°03'57,98'' W) show orbital and suborbital climate variability at extremely high resolution for the last 6000 years in this region. In particular, the mid-late Holocene is marked by a long-term cooling revealed by the gradual decrease of arboreal pollen (AP) percentages and SST which parallels the general decreasing trend of the δ18-O isotope composition recorded in Greenland ice records and the decrease of the mid-latitudes summer insolation. The short-term vegetation changes, reflecting millennial scale climatic variability, are clearly identified in the POPEI VC2B over the last 6000 years. In particular, the basement of this record is marked by the presence of semi-desert plants (Chenopodiaceae, Artemisia and Ephedra) reflecting dry conditions. These particular dry conditions have been detected elsewhere in the southern Iberian Peninsula and in North African records. Following the particularly dry period, there is a decline of semi-desert plants and an increase of Ericaceae and Pinus associated with establishment of an incipient forest of Quercus deciduous type reflecting temperate and humid conditions. This period was followed by a decrease of arboreal pollen percentages, suggesting a relative climate cooling. Finally, the last 2500/2000 years, are marked by the presence of anthropogenic associations (including Cerealia-type, Plantago lanceolata-coronopus type, and Olea) and are characterized by several vegetation and climate oscillations associated with the Roman Period (RP), the Dark Ages (DA), the Medieval Climatic Anomaly (MCA), and the Little Ice Age (LIA).

Differential behaviour of a Lesser Himalayan watershed in extreme rainfall regimes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chauhan, Pankaj; Singh, Nilendu; Chauniyal, Devi Datt; Ahluwalia, Rajeev S.; Singhal, Mohit

2017-03-01

Climatic extremes including precipitation are bound to intensify in the global warming environment. The present study intends to understand the response of the Tons sub-watershed in Lesser Himalaya, in 3 years with entirely different hydrological conditions (July 2008-June 2011) in terms of discharge, sediment flux and denudation rates. Within an uncertainty limit of ±20%, the mean interannual discharge (5.74 ± 1.44 m 3 s -1) (±SE), was found highly variable (CV: 151%; 0.8-38 m 3 s -1). In a normal rainfall year (2008-2009; ˜1550 mm), the discharge was 5.12 ± 1.75 m 3 s -1, whereas in a drought year (2009-2010), it reduced by 30% with the reduction in ˜23% rainfall (CV: 85%). In an excessive rainfall year (once-in-a-century event) (2010-2011; ˜3050 mm), discharge as well as total solid load was ˜200% higher. Monsoon months (July-September) accounted for more than 90% of the annual solid load transport. The ratio of dissolved to suspended solid (C/P ratio) was consistently low (<1) during monsoon months and higher (1-7) during the rest of the dry period. C/P ratio was inversely ( R 2=0.49), but significantly ( P <0.001) related to the rainfall. The average mechanical erosion rate in the three different rainfall years was 0.24, 0.19 and 1.03 mmyr -1, whereas the chemical erosion was estimated at 0.12, 0.11 and 0.46 mmyr -1, respectively. Thus, the average denudation rate of the Tons sub-watershed has been estimated at 0.33 mmyr -1 (excluding extreme rainfall year: 1.5 mmyr -1). Our results have implications to understand the hydrological behaviour of the Lesser Himalayan watersheds and will be valuable for the proposed and several upcoming small hydropower plants in the region in the context of regional ecology and natural resource management.

Preparation of high porosity xerogels by chemical surface modification.

DOEpatents

Deshpande, Ravindra; Smith, Douglas M.; Brinker, C. Jeffrey

1996-01-01

This invention provides an extremely porous xerogel dried at vacuum-to-below supercritical pressures but having the properties of aerogels which are typically dried at supercritical pressures. This is done by reacting the internal pore surface of the wet gel with organic substances in order to change the contact angle of the fluid meniscus in the pores during drying. Shrinkage of the gel (which is normally prevented by use of high autoclave pressures, such that the pore fluid is at temperature and pressure above its critical values) is avoided even at vacuum or ambient pressures.

Climate Shocks and Migration: An Agent-Based Modeling Approach.

PubMed

Entwisle, Barbara; Williams, Nathalie E; Verdery, Ashton M; Rindfuss, Ronald R; Walsh, Stephen J; Malanson, George P; Mucha, Peter J; Frizzelle, Brian G; McDaniel, Philip M; Yao, Xiaozheng; Heumann, Benjamin W; Prasartkul, Pramote; Sawangdee, Yothin; Jampaklay, Aree

2016-09-01

This is a study of migration responses to climate shocks. We construct an agent-based model that incorporates dynamic linkages between demographic behaviors, such as migration, marriage, and births, and agriculture and land use, which depend on rainfall patterns. The rules and parameterization of our model are empirically derived from qualitative and quantitative analyses of a well-studied demographic field site, Nang Rong district, Northeast Thailand. With this model, we simulate patterns of migration under four weather regimes in a rice economy: 1) a reference, 'normal' scenario; 2) seven years of unusually wet weather; 3) seven years of unusually dry weather; and 4) seven years of extremely variable weather. Results show relatively small impacts on migration. Experiments with the model show that existing high migration rates and strong selection factors, which are unaffected by climate change, are likely responsible for the weak migration response.

Climate Shocks and Migration: An Agent-Based Modeling Approach

PubMed Central

Entwisle, Barbara; Williams, Nathalie E.; Verdery, Ashton M.; Rindfuss, Ronald R.; Walsh, Stephen J.; Malanson, George P.; Mucha, Peter J.; Frizzelle, Brian G.; McDaniel, Philip M.; Yao, Xiaozheng; Heumann, Benjamin W.; Prasartkul, Pramote; Sawangdee, Yothin; Jampaklay, Aree

2016-01-01

This is a study of migration responses to climate shocks. We construct an agent-based model that incorporates dynamic linkages between demographic behaviors, such as migration, marriage, and births, and agriculture and land use, which depend on rainfall patterns. The rules and parameterization of our model are empirically derived from qualitative and quantitative analyses of a well-studied demographic field site, Nang Rong district, Northeast Thailand. With this model, we simulate patterns of migration under four weather regimes in a rice economy: 1) a reference, ‘normal’ scenario; 2) seven years of unusually wet weather; 3) seven years of unusually dry weather; and 4) seven years of extremely variable weather. Results show relatively small impacts on migration. Experiments with the model show that existing high migration rates and strong selection factors, which are unaffected by climate change, are likely responsible for the weak migration response. PMID:27594725

Organoleptic properties and perception of maize, African yam bean, and defatted coconut flour-based breakfast cereals served in conventional forms.

PubMed

Usman, Grace Ojali; Okafor, Gabriel Ifeanyi

2016-09-01

Breakfast cereals were produced by roasting (t = 280°C) - a dry heat treatment process to gelatinize and semidextrinize the starch - in order to generate dry ready-to-eat products from blends of African yam bean (AYB), maize (M), and defatted coconut (DC) flour. Six samples were generated by mixing AYB and maize composite flour with graded levels of DC flour (0%, 10%, 20%, 30%, 40%, and 50%) to obtain the following ratios; 100:0, 90:10, 80:20, 70:30, 60:40, and 50:50 that were added equal quantities of sugar, salt, sorghum malt extract, and water. The obtained products were served dry (without added fluid), with water, milk, and warm milk to 15 panelists along with Weetabix Original (commercial control) to evaluate color, consistency, flavor, taste, aftertaste, mouth feel, and overall acceptability using a nine-point hedonic scale (1 = dislike extremely, 9 = like extremely). The results revealed that the samples were acceptable to the panelists. There were no significant (P > 0.05) differences, between the control (Weetabix) and the formulated samples in terms of overall acceptability, when served with water, whereas significant differences (P < 0.05) existed when served dry, with milk or warm milk. This new roasting process for producing breakfast cereals offers huge potentials for production of acceptable breakfast cereals enriched with protein and fiber-rich sources that could be consumed dry, with water, milk, or warm milk.

A perturbation approach for assessing trends in precipitation extremes across Iran

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tabari, Hossein; AghaKouchak, Amir; Willems, Patrick

2014-11-01

Extreme precipitation events have attracted a great deal of attention among the scientific community because of their devastating consequences on human livelihood and socio-economic development. To assess changes in precipitation extremes in a given region, it is essential to analyze decadal oscillations in precipitation extremes. This study examines temporal oscillations in precipitation data in several sub-regions of Iran using a novel quantile perturbation method during 1980-2010. Precipitation data from NASA's Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications-Land (MERRA-Land) are used in this study. The results indicate significant anomalies in precipitation extremes in the northwest and southeast regions of Iran. Analysis of extreme precipitation perturbations reveals that perturbations for the monthly aggregation level are generally lower than the annual perturbations. Furthermore, high-oscillation and low-oscillation periods are found in extreme precipitation quantiles across different seasons. In all selected regions, a significant anomaly (i.e., extreme wet/dry conditions) in precipitation extremes is observed during spring.

Extreme hyponatraemia with intact neurological outcome in a young child with Addison’s disease

PubMed Central

Smith, John-Paul; Burren, Christine; Cherinet, Yonas

2011-01-01

The authors present the case of a 6-year-old boy with a good neurological outcome from extreme hyponatraemia caused by autoimmune hypoadrenalism. He presented with 1 week of reduced appetite, lethargy, vomiting and one episode of diarrhoea. He was described as being slightly unsteady on his feet. Clinically he was alert, although intermittently confused, with dry mucous membranes and sunken eyes. Serum sodium was 96 mmol/l with normal serum potassium and renal function. He was initially treated with 3% saline intravenously, and his serum sodium increased to 128 mmol/l by day 3. He developed slurred speech and ataxia on day 4, although MRI brain showed no evidence of pontine myelinosis, and the symptoms resolved over 1 week. A Synacthen test on day 10 confirmed a diagnosis of Addison’s disease and he was commenced on hydrocortisone and fludrocortisone replacement therapy. At 5 months follow-up there are no obvious neurological or developmental sequelae. PMID:22679234

Patterns of change in high frequency precipitation variability over North America.

PubMed

Roque-Malo, Susana; Kumar, Praveen

2017-09-18

Precipitation variability encompasses attributes associated with the sequencing and duration of events of the full range of magnitudes. However, climate change studies have largely focused on extreme events. Using analyses of long-term weather station data, we show that high frequency events, such as fraction of wet days in a year and average duration of wet and dry periods, are undergoing significant changes across North America. Further, these changes are more prevalent and larger than those associated with extremes. Such trends also exist for events of a range of magnitudes. Existence of localized clusters with opposing trend to that of broader geographic variation illustrates the role of microclimate and other drivers of trends. Such hitherto unknown patterns over the entire North American continent have the potential to significantly inform our characterization of the resilience and vulnerability of a broad range of ecosystems and agricultural and socio-economic systems. They can also set new benchmarks for climate model assessments.

Extreme weather events and related disasters in the Philippines, 2004-08: a sign of what climate change will mean?

PubMed

Yumul, Graciano P; Cruz, Nathaniel A; Servando, Nathaniel T; Dimalanta, Carla B

2011-04-01

Being an archipelagic nation, the Philippines is susceptible and vulnerable to the ill-effects of weather-related hazards. Extreme weather events, which include tropical cyclones, monsoon rains and dry spells, have triggered hazards (such as floods and landslides) that have turned into disasters. Financial resources that were meant for development and social services have had to be diverted in response, addressing the destruction caused by calamities that beset different regions of the country. Changing climatic patterns and weather-related occurrences over the past five years (2004-08) may serve as an indicator of what climate change will mean for the country. Early recognition of this possibility and the implementation of appropriate action and measures, through disaster risk management, are important if loss of life and property is to be minimised, if not totally eradicated. This is a matter of urgent concern given the geographical location and geological characteristics of the Philippines. © 2011 The Author(s). Disasters © Overseas Development Institute, 2011.

The Impact of the Extreme Amazonian Flood Season on the Incidence of Viral Gastroenteritis Cases.

PubMed

Vieira, Carmen Baur; de Abreu Corrêa, Adriana; de Jesus, Michele Silva; Luz, Sérgio Luiz Bessa; Wyn-Jones, Peter; Kay, David; Rocha, Mônica Simões; Miagostovich, Marize Pereira

2017-06-01

During the Amazonian flood season in 2012, the Negro River reached its highest level in 110 years, submerging residential and commercial areas which appeared associated with an elevation in the observed gastroenteritis cases in the city of Manaus. The aim of this study was to evaluate the microbiological water quality of the Negro River basin during this extreme flood to investigate this apparent association between the illness cases and the population exposed to the contaminated waters. Forty water samples were collected and analysed for classic and emerging enteric viruses. Human adenoviruses, group A rotaviruses and genogroup II noroviruses were detected in 100, 77.5 and 27.5% of the samples, respectively, in concentrations of 10 3 -10 6 GC/L. All samples were compliant with local bacteriological standards. HAdV2 and 41 and RVA G2, P[6], and P[8] were characterised. Astroviruses, sapoviruses, genogroup IV noroviruses, klasseviruses, bocaviruses and aichiviruses were not detected. Statistical analyses showed correlations between river stage level and reported gastroenteritis cases and, also, significant differences between virus concentrations during this extreme event when compared with normal dry seasons and previous flood seasons of the Negro River. These findings suggest an association between the extreme flood experienced and gastrointestinal cases in the affected areas providing circumstantial evidence of causality between the elevations in enteric viruses in surface waters and reported illness.

Additive impacts of experimental climate change increase risk to an ectotherm at the Arctic's edge

USGS Publications Warehouse

Davenport, Jon M.; Hossack, Blake R.; Fishback, LeeAnn

2017-01-01

Globally, Arctic and Subarctic regions have experienced the greatest temperature increases during the last 30 years. These extreme changes have amplified threats to the freshwater ecosystems that dominate the landscape in many areas by altering water budgets. Several studies in temperate environments have examined the adaptive capacity of organisms to enhance our understanding of the potential repercussions of warming and associated accelerated drying for freshwater ecosystems. However, few experiments have examined these impacts in Arctic or Subarctic freshwater ecosystems, where the climate is changing most rapidly. To evaluate the capacity of a widespread ectotherm to anticipated environmental changes, we conducted a mesocosm experiment with wood frogs (Rana sylvatica) in the Canadian Subarctic. Three warming treatments were fully crossed with three drying treatments to simulate a range of predicted changes in wetland environments. We predicted wetland warming and drying would act synergistically, with water temperature partially compensating for some of the negative effects of accelerated drying. Across all drying regimes, a 1 °C increase in water temperature increased the odds of survival by 1.79, and tadpoles in 52-day and 64-day hydroperiod mesocosms were 4.1–4.3 times more likely to survive to metamorphosis than tadpoles in 45-day mesocosms. For individuals who survived to metamorphosis, there was only a weak negative effect of temperature on size. As expected, increased temperatures accelerated tadpole growth through day 30 of the experiment. Our results reveal that one of the dominant herbivores in Subarctic wetlands, wood frog tadpoles, are capable of increasing their developmental rates in response to increased temperature and accelerated drying, but only in an additive manner. The strong negative effects of drying on survival, combined with lack of compensation between these two environmental drivers, suggest changes in the aquatic environment that are expected in this ecosystem will reduce mean fitness of populations across the landscape.

Additive impacts of experimental climate change increase risk to an ectotherm at the Arctic's edge.

PubMed

Davenport, Jon M; Hossack, Blake R; Fishback, LeeAnn

2017-06-01

Globally, Arctic and Subarctic regions have experienced the greatest temperature increases during the last 30 years. These extreme changes have amplified threats to the freshwater ecosystems that dominate the landscape in many areas by altering water budgets. Several studies in temperate environments have examined the adaptive capacity of organisms to enhance our understanding of the potential repercussions of warming and associated accelerated drying for freshwater ecosystems. However, few experiments have examined these impacts in Arctic or Subarctic freshwater ecosystems, where the climate is changing most rapidly. To evaluate the capacity of a widespread ectotherm to anticipated environmental changes, we conducted a mesocosm experiment with wood frogs (Rana sylvatica) in the Canadian Subarctic. Three warming treatments were fully crossed with three drying treatments to simulate a range of predicted changes in wetland environments. We predicted wetland warming and drying would act synergistically, with water temperature partially compensating for some of the negative effects of accelerated drying. Across all drying regimes, a 1 °C increase in water temperature increased the odds of survival by 1.79, and tadpoles in 52-day and 64-day hydroperiod mesocosms were 4.1-4.3 times more likely to survive to metamorphosis than tadpoles in 45-day mesocosms. For individuals who survived to metamorphosis, there was only a weak negative effect of temperature on size. As expected, increased temperatures accelerated tadpole growth through day 30 of the experiment. Our results reveal that one of the dominant herbivores in Subarctic wetlands, wood frog tadpoles, are capable of increasing their developmental rates in response to increased temperature and accelerated drying, but only in an additive manner. The strong negative effects of drying on survival, combined with lack of compensation between these two environmental drivers, suggest changes in the aquatic environment that are expected in this ecosystem will reduce mean fitness of populations across the landscape. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Coordinating Chemical and Mineralogical Analyses of Antarctic Dry Valley Sediments as Potential Analogs for Mars

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Patel, S. N.; Bishop, J. L.; Englert, P.; Gibson, E. K.

2015-01-01

The Antarctic Dry Valleys (ADV) provide a unique terrestrial analog for Martian surface processes as they are extremely cold and dry sedimentary environments. The surface geology and the chemical composition of the Dry Valleys that are similar to Mars suggest the possible presence of these soil-formation processes on Mars. The soils and sediments from Wright Valley, Antarctica were investigated in this study to examine mineralogical and chemical changes along the surface layer in this region and as a function of depth. Surface samples collected near Prospect Mesa and Don Juan Pond of the ADV were analyzed using visible/near-infrared (VNIR) and mid-IR reflectance spectroscopy and major and trace element abundances.

ENSO modulation of seasonal rainfall and extremes in Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Supari; Tangang, Fredolin; Salimun, Ester; Aldrian, Edvin; Sopaheluwakan, Ardhasena; Juneng, Liew

2017-12-01

This paper provides a detailed description of how ENSO events affect seasonal and extreme precipitation over Indonesia. Daily precipitation data from 97 stations across Indonesia covering the period from 1981 to 2012 were used to investigate the effects of El Niño and La Niña on extreme precipitation characteristics including intensity, frequency and duration, as defined based on a subset of the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). Although anomalous signals in these three indices were consistent with those of total rainfall, anomalies in the duration of extremes [i.e., consecutive dry days (CDD) and consecutive wet days (CWD)] were much more robust. El Niño impacts were particularly prominent during June-July-August (JJA) and September-October-November (SON), when anomalously dry conditions were experienced throughout the country. However, from SON, a wet anomaly appeared over northern Sumatra, later expanding eastward during December-January-February (DJF) and March-April-May (MAM), creating contrasting conditions of wet in the west and dry in the east. We attribute this apparent eastward expansion of a wet anomaly during El Niño progression to the equatorial convergence of two anti-cyclonic circulations, one residing north of the equator and the other south of the equator. These anti-cyclonic circulations strengthen and weaken according to seasonal changes and their coupling with regional seas, hence shaping moisture transport and convergence. During La Niña events, the eastward expansion of an opposite (i.e., dry) anomaly was also present but less prominent than that of El Niño. We attribute this to differences in regional ocean—atmosphere coupling, which result in the contrasting seasonal evolution of the two corresponding anomalous cyclonic circulations and in turn suggests the strong nonlinearity of El Niño and La Niña responses over the Maritime Continent. Based on the seasonal behaviour of anomalous CDD and CWD, we propose five sub-divisions of the Indonesian region for both El Niño and La Niña.

Tick exposure and extreme climate events impact survival and threaten the persistence of a long-lived lizard.

PubMed

Jones, Alice R; Bull, C Michael; Brook, Barry W; Wells, Konstans; Pollock, Kenneth H; Fordham, Damien A

2016-03-01

Assessing the impacts of multiple, often synergistic, stressors on the population dynamics of long-lived species is becoming increasingly important due to recent and future global change. Tiliqua rugosa (sleepy lizard) is a long-lived skink (>30 years) that is adapted to survive in semi-arid environments with varying levels of parasite exposure and highly seasonal food availability. We used an exhaustive database of 30 years of capture-mark-recapture records to quantify the impacts of both parasite exposure and environmental conditions on the lizard's survival rates and long-term population dynamics. Lizard abundance was relatively stable throughout the study period; however, there were changing patterns in adult and juvenile apparent survival rates, driven by spatial and temporal variation in levels of tick exposure and temporal variation in environmental conditions. Extreme weather events during the winter and spring seasons were identified as important environmental drivers of survival. Climate models predict a dramatic increase in the frequency of extreme hot and dry winter and spring seasons in our South Australian study region; from a contemporary probability of 0.17 up to 0.47-0.83 in 2080 depending on the emissions scenario. Our stochastic population model projections showed that these future climatic conditions will induce a decline in the abundance of this long-lived reptile of up to 67% within 30 years from 2080, under worst case scenario modelling. The results have broad implications for future work investigating the drivers of population dynamics and persistence. We highlight the importance of long-term data sets and accounting for synergistic impacts between multiple stressors. We show that predicted increases in the frequency of extreme climate events have the potential to considerably and negatively influence a long-lived species, which might previously have been assumed to be resilient to environmental perturbations. © 2015 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2015 British Ecological Society.

Comparative Activity and Functional Ecology of Permafrost Soils and Lithic Niches in a Hyper-Arid Polar Desert

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Goordial, J.; Davila, A.; Greer, C. W.; Cannam, R.; DiRuggiero, J.; McKay, C. P.; Whyte, L. G.

2016-01-01

This study represents the first metagenomic interrogation of Antarctic permafrost and polar cryptoendolithic microbial communities. The results underlie two different habitability conditions in the same location under extreme cold and dryness: the permafrost habitat where viable microbial life and activity is questionable, and the cryptoendolithic habitat which contains organisms capable of growth under the extreme conditions of the Antarctic Dry Valleys.

Chemical and physical microenvironments at the Viking landing sites

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Clark, B. C.

1979-01-01

Physical and chemical considerations permit the division of the near-surface regolith on Mars into at least six zones of distinct microenvironments. The zones are euphotic, duricrust/peds, tempofrost, permafrost, endolithic, and interfacial/transitional. Microenvironments vary significantly in temperature extremes, mean temperature, salt content, relative pressure of water vapor, UV and visible light irradiance, and exposure to ionizing radiation events (100 Mrad) and oxidative molecular species. From what is known of the chemistry of the atmosphere and regolith fines (soil), limits upon the aqueous chemistry of soil pastes may be estimated. Heat of wetting could reach 45 cal/g dry soil; initial pH is indeterminate between 1 and 10; ionic strength and salinity are predicted to be extremely high; freezing point depression is inadequate to provide quantities of liquid water except in special cases. The prospects for biotic survival are grim by terrestrial standards, but the extremes of biological resiliency are inaccessible to evaluation. Second-generation in situ experiments which will better define Martian microenvironments are clearly possible. Antarctic dry valleys are approximations to Martian conditions, but deviate significantly by at least half-a-dozen criteria.

Microorganisms in desert rocks: the edge of life on Earth.

PubMed

Wierzchos, Jacek; de los Ríos, Asunción; Ascaso, Carmen

2012-12-01

This article reviews current knowledge on microbial communities inhabiting endolithic habitats in the arid and hyper-arid regions of our planet. In these extremely dry environments, the most common survival strategy is to colonize the interiors of rocks. This habitat provides thermal buffering, physical stability, and protection against incident UV radiation, excessive photosynthetically active radiation, and freeze-thaw events. Above all, through water retention in the rocks' network of pores and fissures, moisture is made available. Some authors have argued that dry environments pose the most extreme set of conditions faced by microorganisms. Microbial cells need to withstand the biochemical stresses created by the lack of water, along with temperature fluctuations and/or high salinity. In this review, we also address the variety of ways in which microorganisms deal with the lack of moisture in hyper-arid environments and point out the diversity of microorganisms that are able to cope with only the scarcest presence of water. Finally, we discuss the important clues to the history of life on Earth, and perhaps other places in our solar system, that have emerged from the study of extreme microbial ecosystems.

Chemical and physical microenvironments at the Viking landing sites.

PubMed

Clark, B C

1979-12-01

Physical and chemical considerations permit the division of the near-surface regolith on Mars into at least six zones of distinct microenvironments. The zones are euphotic, duricrust/peds, tempofrost, permafrost, endolithic, and interfacial/transitional. Microenvironments vary significantly in temperature extremes, mean temperature, salt content, relative pressure of water vapor, UV and visible light irradiance, and exposure to ionizing radiation events (100 Mrad) and oxidative molecular species. From what is known of the chemistry of the atmosphere and regolith fines (soil), limits upon the aqueous chemistry of soil pastes may be estimated. Heat of wetting could reach 45 cal/g dry soil; initial pH is indeterminate between 1 and 10; ionic strength and salinity are predicted to be extremely high; freezing point depression is inadequate to provide quantities of liquid water except in special cases. The prospects for biotic survival are grim by terrestrial standards, but the extremes of biological resiliency are inaccessible to evaluation. Second-generation in situ experiments which will better define Martian microenvironments are clearly possible. Antarctic dry valleys are approximations to Martian conditions, but deviate significantly by at least half-a-dozen criteria.

Impact of zoo visitors on the fecal cortisol levels and behavior of an endangered species: Indian blackbuck (Antelope cervicapra L.).

PubMed

Rajagopal, Thangavel; Archunan, Govindaraju; Sekar, Mahadevan

2011-01-01

This study investigated behavioral activities (resting, moving, aggressive, social, and reproductive behavior) and fecal cortisol levels in 8 individually identified adult male blackbucks during periods of varying levels of zoo visitors (zero, low, high, and extremely high zoo visitor density). This study also elucidated whether zoo visitor density could disturb nonhuman animal welfare. This study analyzed fecal cortisol from the samples of blackbuck by radioimmunoassay and found significant differences (p < .05) for time the animals devoted to moving, resting, aggressive, reproductive, and social behavior on days with high and extremely high levels of zoo visitors. The ANOVA with Duncan's Multiple Range Test test showed that the fecal cortisol concentration was higher (p < .05) during the extremely high (137.30 ± 5.88 ng/g dry feces) and high (113.51 ± 3.70 ng/g dry feces) levels of zoo visitor density. The results of the study suggest that zoo visitor density affected behavior and adrenocortical secretion in Indian Blackbuck, and this may indicate an animal welfare problem.

Spatial and temporal variability of cv. Tempranillo phenology and grape quality within the Ribera del Duero DO (Spain) and relationships with climate.

PubMed

Ramos, M C; Jones, G V; Yuste, J

2015-12-01

The aim of this work was to analyze spatial phenology and grape quality variability related to the climatic characteristics within the Ribera del Duero Designation of Origin (DO). Twenty plots planted with cv. Tempranillo and distributed within the DO were analyzed for phenology from 2004 to 2013. Grape quality parameters at ripening (berry weight, sugar content, acidity and pH, and anthocyanins) were analyzed in 26 plots for the period 2003-2013. The relationships between phenology and grape parameters with different climatic variables were confirmed with a multivariate analysis. On average, bud break was April 27(th), bloom June 17(th), and veraison August 12th. However, phenology during the time period showed high variability, with differences between years of up to 21 days for a phenology stage. The earliest dates were observed in dry years (2005, 2006, and to a lesser degree in 2009) while the later phenology dates occurred in the wettest year of the period (2008). High correlations were found between veraison date and temperature variables as well as with precipitation-evapotranspiration recorded during the bloom-veraison period. These effects tended to be higher in the central part of the DO. Grape quality parameters also showed high variability among the dry and the wet years, and the influence of extreme temperatures on color development as well as the effect of available water on acidity were observed.

Spatial and temporal variability of cv. Tempranillo phenology and grape quality within the Ribera del Duero DO (Spain) and relationships with climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramos, M. C.; Jones, G. V.; Yuste, J.

2015-12-01

The aim of this work was to analyze spatial phenology and grape quality variability related to the climatic characteristics within the Ribera del Duero Designation of Origin (DO). Twenty plots planted with cv. Tempranillo and distributed within the DO were analyzed for phenology from 2004 to 2013. Grape quality parameters at ripening (berry weight, sugar content, acidity and pH, and anthocyanins) were analyzed in 26 plots for the period 2003-2013. The relationships between phenology and grape parameters with different climatic variables were confirmed with a multivariate analysis. On average, bud break was April 27th, bloom June 17th, and veraison August 12th. However, phenology during the time period showed high variability, with differences between years of up to 21 days for a phenology stage. The earliest dates were observed in dry years (2005, 2006, and to a lesser degree in 2009) while the later phenology dates occurred in the wettest year of the period (2008). High correlations were found between veraison date and temperature variables as well as with precipitation-evapotranspiration recorded during the bloom-veraison period. These effects tended to be higher in the central part of the DO. Grape quality parameters also showed high variability among the dry and the wet years, and the influence of extreme temperatures on color development as well as the effect of available water on acidity were observed.

A new perspective on the 1930s mega-heat waves across central United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cowan, Tim; Hegerl, Gabi

2016-04-01

The unprecedented hot and dry conditions that plagued contiguous United States during the 1930s caused widespread devastation for many local communities and severely dented the emerging economy. The heat extremes experienced during the aptly named Dust Bowl decade were not isolated incidences, but part of a tendency towards warm summers over the central United States in the early 1930s, and peaked in the boreal summer 1936. Using high-quality daily maximum and minimum temperature observations from more than 880 Global Historical Climate Network stations across the United States and southern Canada, we assess the record breaking heat waves in the 1930s Dust Bowl decade. A comparison is made to more recent heat waves that have occurred during the latter half of the 20th century (i.e., in a warming world), both averaged over selected years and across decades. We further test the ability of coupled climate models to simulate mega-heat waves (i.e. most extreme events) across the United States in a pre-industrial climate without the impact of any long-term anthropogenic warming. Well-established heat wave metrics based on the temperature percentile threshold exceedances over three or more consecutive days are used to describe variations in the frequency, duration, amplitude and timing of the events. Casual factors such as drought severity/soil moisture deficits in the lead up to the heat waves (interannual), as well as the concurrent synoptic conditions (interdiurnal) and variability in Pacific and Atlantic sea surface temperatures (decadal) are also investigated. Results suggest that while each heat wave summer in the 1930s exhibited quite unique characteristics in terms of their timing, duration, amplitude, and regional clustering, a common factor in the Dust Bowl decade was the high number of consecutive dry seasons, as measured by drought indicators such as the Palmer Drought Severity and Standardised Precipitation indices, that preceded the mega-heat waves. This suggests that land surface feedbacks, resulting from anomalously dry soil prior to summer, amplified the heat extremes triggering the mega-heat waves. Using the model experiments, we assess whether the combined warm phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation provide a necessary condition to trigger decade-long droughts that spawn mega-heat waves to cluster across consecutive summers.

Permafrost as an additional driving factor for the extreme fire event in the boreal Baikal region in 2003

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Forkel, M.; Thonicke, K.; Beer, C.; Cramer, W.; Bartalev, S.; Schmullius, C.

2012-04-01

Wildfires are a natural and important element in the functioning of boreal forests. However, in some years, fires with extreme spread and severity occur. Such severe fires degrade the forest, affect human values, emit huge amount of carbon and aerosols and alter the land surface albedo. Usually, wind, slope, and dry conditions have been recognized as factors determining fire spread. In the Baikal region, 127,000 km2 burned in 2003, while the annual average burned area is approx. 8100 km2. In average years, 16% of the burned area occurred in the continuous permafrost zone but in 2003, 33% of these burned areas coincide with the existence of permanently frozen grounds. Permafrost and the associated upper active layer, which thaws during summer and refreezes during winter, is an important supply for soil moisture in boreal ecosystems. This leads to the question if permafrost hydrology is a potential additional driving factor for extreme fire events in boreal forests. Using temperature and precipitation data, we calculated the Nesterov index as indicator for fire weather conditions. Further, we used satellite observations of burned area and surface moisture, a digital elevation model, a land cover and a permafrost map to evaluate drivers for the temporal dynamic and spatial variability of surface moisture conditions and burned area in spring 2003. On the basis of time series decomposition, we separated the effect of drivers for fire activity on different time scales. We next computed cross-correlations to identify potential time lags between weather conditions, surface moisture and fire activity. Finally, we assessed the predictive capability of different combinations of driving variables for surface moisture conditions and burned area using multivariate spatial-temporal regression models. The results from this study demonstrate that permafrost in larch-dominated ecosystems regulates the inter-annual variability of surface moisture and thus increases the inter-annual variability of burned area. The drought conditions in spring 2003 were accelerated by the presence of permafrost because less water was stored in the upper active layer from the dry previous summer 2002 and the permafrost table prevents vegetative water uptake from deeper layers. In contrast, weather conditions (precipitation anomaly, Nesterov index) are weaker predictors for the 2003 fire event. Our analysis advances the understanding of complex interactions between the atmosphere, vegetation and soil on how feedback mechanisms can lead to extreme fire events. These findings emphasize the importance of a mechanistic coupling of soil thermodynamics, hydrology, and fire activity in earth system models for projecting climate change impacts over the next century.

Torrejon AB, Madrid, Spain. revised uniform summary of surface weather observations (RUSSWO). parts a-f. Final report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

1978-10-03

This report is a six-part statistical summary of surface weather observations for Torrejon AB, Madrid Spain. It contains the following parts: (A) Weather Conditions; Atmospheric Phenomena; (B) Precipitation, Snowfall and Snow Depth (daily amounts and extreme values); (C) Surface winds; (D) Ceiling Versus Visibility; Sky Cover; (E) Psychrometric Summaries (daily maximum and minimum temperatures, extreme maximum and minimum temperatures, psychrometric summary of wet-bulb temperature depression versus dry-bulb temperature, means and standard deviations of dry-bulb, wet-bulb and dew-point temperatures and relative humidity); and (F) Pressure Summary (means, standard, deviations, and observation counts of station pressure and sea-level pressure). Data in thismore » report are presented in tabular form, in most cases in percentage frequency of occurrence or cumulative percentage frequency of occurrence tables.« less

Climate-driven ground-level ozone extreme in the fall over the Southeast United States

PubMed Central

Wang, Yuhang

2016-01-01

Ground-level ozone is adverse to human and vegetation health. High ground-level ozone concentrations usually occur over the United States in the summer, often referred to as the ozone season. However, observed monthly mean ozone concentrations in the southeastern United States were higher in October than July in 2010. The October ozone average in 2010 reached that of July in the past three decades (1980–2010). Our analysis shows that this extreme October ozone in 2010 over the Southeast is due in part to a dry and warm weather condition, which enhances photochemical production, air stagnation, and fire emissions. Observational evidence and modeling analysis also indicate that another significant contributor is enhanced emissions of biogenic isoprene, a major ozone precursor, from water-stressed plants under a dry and warm condition. The latter finding is corroborated by recent laboratory and field studies. This climate-induced biogenic control also explains the puzzling fact that the two extremes of high October ozone both occurred in the 2000s when anthropogenic emissions were lower than the 1980s and 1990s, in contrast to the observed decreasing trend of July ozone in the region. The occurrences of a drying and warming fall, projected by climate models, will likely lead to more active photochemistry, enhanced biogenic isoprene and fire emissions, an extension of the ozone season from summer to fall, and an increase of secondary organic aerosols in the Southeast, posing challenges to regional air quality management. PMID:27551089

Climate-driven ground-level ozone extreme in the fall over the Southeast United States.

PubMed

Zhang, Yuzhong; Wang, Yuhang

2016-09-06

Ground-level ozone is adverse to human and vegetation health. High ground-level ozone concentrations usually occur over the United States in the summer, often referred to as the ozone season. However, observed monthly mean ozone concentrations in the southeastern United States were higher in October than July in 2010. The October ozone average in 2010 reached that of July in the past three decades (1980-2010). Our analysis shows that this extreme October ozone in 2010 over the Southeast is due in part to a dry and warm weather condition, which enhances photochemical production, air stagnation, and fire emissions. Observational evidence and modeling analysis also indicate that another significant contributor is enhanced emissions of biogenic isoprene, a major ozone precursor, from water-stressed plants under a dry and warm condition. The latter finding is corroborated by recent laboratory and field studies. This climate-induced biogenic control also explains the puzzling fact that the two extremes of high October ozone both occurred in the 2000s when anthropogenic emissions were lower than the 1980s and 1990s, in contrast to the observed decreasing trend of July ozone in the region. The occurrences of a drying and warming fall, projected by climate models, will likely lead to more active photochemistry, enhanced biogenic isoprene and fire emissions, an extension of the ozone season from summer to fall, and an increase of secondary organic aerosols in the Southeast, posing challenges to regional air quality management.

Precipitation Extremes in Dynamically Downscaled Climate Scenarios over the Greater Horn of Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shiferaw, A. S.; Tadesse, T.; Oglesby, R. J.; Rowe, C. M.

2017-12-01

The precipitation extremes were generated over the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) using the Regional Climate Models (RCMs) simulations from the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX). To assess how well the RCM simulations are capturing the historical observed precipitation extremes, they were compared with the precipitation extremes derived from Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station data (CHIRPS v2). The result shows that RCM simulations have reasonably captured observed patterns of the precipitation extremes (i.e., the pattern correlation is greater than 0.5). However, significant overestimations or underestimations were observed over some localized areas in the region. The study then assessed the projected changes in these precipitation extremes during 2069-2098 and compared to the 1976-2005 period that were both derived from the RCM simulations. Projected changes in total annual precipitation (PRCPTOT), annual number of heavy (>10mm) and very heavy (>20mm) precipitation days by 2069-2098 show a general north-south pattern with a decrease over southern-half and increase over the northern-half of GHA. These changes are often greatest over parts of Somalia, Eritrea, Ethiopian highlands and southern Tanzania. Maximum 1 and 5-day total precipitation in a year and "Simple Daily Precipitation Intensity Index" (ratio of PRCPTOT to rainy days) are projected to increase over majority of GHA, including areas where PRCPTOT is projected to decrease, suggesting fewer but heavier rainy days in the future. Changes in annual sum of daily precipitation above 95th and 99th percentile are not statistically significant except Eritrea and northwestern Sudan/Somalia. Projected changes in consecutive dry days (CDD) suggest longer periods of dryness over majority of GHA. Among these areas, a substantial increases in CDD are located over southern Tanzania and Ethiopian highlands.

Evaluation of the HadGEM3-A simulations in view of detection and attribution of human influence on extreme events in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vautard, Robert; Christidis, Nikolaos; Ciavarella, Andrew; Alvarez-Castro, Carmen; Bellprat, Omar; Christiansen, Bo; Colfescu, Ioana; Cowan, Tim; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco; Eden, Jonathan; Hauser, Mathias; Hegerl, Gabriele; Hempelmann, Nils; Klehmet, Katharina; Lott, Fraser; Nangini, Cathy; Orth, René; Radanovics, Sabine; Seneviratne, Sonia I.; van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan; Stott, Peter; Tett, Simon; Wilcox, Laura; Yiou, Pascal

2018-04-01

A detailed analysis is carried out to assess the HadGEM3-A global atmospheric model skill in simulating extreme temperatures, precipitation and storm surges in Europe in the view of their attribution to human influence. The analysis is performed based on an ensemble of 15 atmospheric simulations forced with observed sea surface temperature of the 54 year period 1960-2013. These simulations, together with dual simulations without human influence in the forcing, are intended to be used in weather and climate event attribution. The analysis investigates the main processes leading to extreme events, including atmospheric circulation patterns, their links with temperature extremes, land-atmosphere and troposphere-stratosphere interactions. It also compares observed and simulated variability, trends and generalized extreme value theory parameters for temperature and precipitation. One of the most striking findings is the ability of the model to capture North-Atlantic atmospheric weather regimes as obtained from a cluster analysis of sea level pressure fields. The model also reproduces the main observed weather patterns responsible for temperature and precipitation extreme events. However, biases are found in many physical processes. Slightly excessive drying may be the cause of an overestimated summer interannual variability and too intense heat waves, especially in central/northern Europe. However, this does not seem to hinder proper simulation of summer temperature trends. Cold extremes appear well simulated, as well as the underlying blocking frequency and stratosphere-troposphere interactions. Extreme precipitation amounts are overestimated and too variable. The atmospheric conditions leading to storm surges were also examined in the Baltics region. There, simulated weather conditions appear not to be leading to strong enough storm surges, but winds were found in very good agreement with reanalyses. The performance in reproducing atmospheric weather patterns indicates that biases mainly originate from local and regional physical processes. This makes local bias adjustment meaningful for climate change attribution.

Recent developments in high efficient freeze-drying of fruits and vegetables assisted by microwave: A review.

PubMed

Fan, Kai; Zhang, Min; Mujumdar, Arun S

2018-01-10

Microwave heating has been applied in the drying of high-value solids as it affords a number of advantages, including shorter drying time and better product quality. Freeze-drying at cryogenic temperature and extremely low pressure provides the advantage of high product quality, but at very high capital and operating costs due partly to very long drying time. Freeze-drying coupled with a microwave heat source speeds up the drying rate and yields good quality products provided the operating unit is designed and operated to achieve the potential for an absence of hot spot developments. This review is a survey of recent developments in the modeling and experimental results on microwave-assisted freeze-drying (MFD) over the past decade. Owing to the high costs involved, so far all applications are limited to small-scale operations for the drying of high-value foods such as fruits and vegetables. In order to promote industrial-scale applications for a broader range of products further research and development efforts are needed to offset the current limitations of the process. The needs and opportunities for future research and developments are outlined.

Modeling complex systems in the geosciences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Balcerak, Ernie

2013-03-01

Many geophysical phenomena can be described as complex systems, involving phenomena such as extreme or "wild" events that often do not follow the Gaussian distribution that would be expected if the events were simply random and uncorrelated. For instance, some geophysical phenomena like earthquakes show a much higher occurrence of relatively large values than would a Gaussian distribution and so are examples of the "Noah effect" (named by Benoit Mandelbrot for the exceptionally heavy rain in the biblical flood). Other geophysical phenomena are examples of the "Joseph effect," in which a state is especially persistent, such as a spell of multiple consecutive hot days (heat waves) or several dry summers in a row. The Joseph effect was named after the biblical story in which Joseph's dream of seven fat cows and seven thin ones predicted 7 years of plenty followed by 7 years of drought.

Climate change versus deforestation: Implications for tree species distribution in the dry forests of southern Ecuador

PubMed Central

Hildebrandt, Patrick; Cueva, Jorge; Espinosa, Carlos Iván; Stimm, Bernd; Günter, Sven

2017-01-01

Seasonally dry forests in the neotropics are heavily threatened by a combination of human disturbances and climate change; however, the severity of these threats is seldom contrasted. This study aims to quantify and compare the effects of deforestation and climate change on the natural spatial ranges of 17 characteristic tree species of southern Ecuador dry deciduous forests, which are heavily fragmented and support high levels of endemism as part of the Tumbesian ecoregion. We used 660 plant records to generate species distribution models and land-cover data to project species ranges for two time frames: a simulated deforestation scenario from 2008 to 2014 with native forest to anthropogenic land-use conversion, and an extreme climate change scenario (CCSM4.0, RCP 8.5) for 2050, which assumed zero change from human activities. To assess both potential threats, we compared the estimated annual rates of species loss (i.e., range shifts) affecting each species. Deforestation loss for all species averaged approximately 71 km2/year, while potential climate-attributed loss was almost 21 km2/year. Moreover, annual area loss rates due to deforestation were significantly higher than those attributed to climate-change (P < 0.01). However, projections into the future scenario show evidence of diverging displacement patterns, indicating the potential formation of novel ecosystems, which is consistent with other species assemblage predictions as result of climate change. Furthermore, we provide recommendations for management and conservation, prioritizing the most threatened species such as Albizia multiflora, Ceiba trichistandra, and Cochlospermum vitifolium. PMID:29267357

Climate change versus deforestation: Implications for tree species distribution in the dry forests of southern Ecuador.

PubMed

Manchego, Carlos E; Hildebrandt, Patrick; Cueva, Jorge; Espinosa, Carlos Iván; Stimm, Bernd; Günter, Sven

2017-01-01

Seasonally dry forests in the neotropics are heavily threatened by a combination of human disturbances and climate change; however, the severity of these threats is seldom contrasted. This study aims to quantify and compare the effects of deforestation and climate change on the natural spatial ranges of 17 characteristic tree species of southern Ecuador dry deciduous forests, which are heavily fragmented and support high levels of endemism as part of the Tumbesian ecoregion. We used 660 plant records to generate species distribution models and land-cover data to project species ranges for two time frames: a simulated deforestation scenario from 2008 to 2014 with native forest to anthropogenic land-use conversion, and an extreme climate change scenario (CCSM4.0, RCP 8.5) for 2050, which assumed zero change from human activities. To assess both potential threats, we compared the estimated annual rates of species loss (i.e., range shifts) affecting each species. Deforestation loss for all species averaged approximately 71 km2/year, while potential climate-attributed loss was almost 21 km2/year. Moreover, annual area loss rates due to deforestation were significantly higher than those attributed to climate-change (P < 0.01). However, projections into the future scenario show evidence of diverging displacement patterns, indicating the potential formation of novel ecosystems, which is consistent with other species assemblage predictions as result of climate change. Furthermore, we provide recommendations for management and conservation, prioritizing the most threatened species such as Albizia multiflora, Ceiba trichistandra, and Cochlospermum vitifolium.

Increasing heat waves and warm spells in India, observed from a multiaspect framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Panda, Dileep Kumar; AghaKouchak, Amir; Ambast, Sunil Kumar

2017-04-01

Recent heat waves have been a matter of serious concern for India because of potential impacts on agriculture, food security, and socioeconomic progress. This study examines the trends and variability in frequency, duration, and intensity of hot episodes during three time periods (1951-2013, 1981-2013 and 1998-2013) by defining heat waves based on the percentile of maximum, minimum, and mean temperatures. The study also explores heat waves and their relationships with hydroclimatic variables, such as rainfall, terrestrial water storage, Palmer drought severity index, and sea surface temperature. Results reveal that the number, frequency, and duration of daytime heat waves increased considerably during the post-1980 dry and hot phase over a large area. The densely populated and agriculturally dominated northern half of India stands out as a key region where the nighttime heat wave metrics reflected the most pronounced amplifications. Despite the recent warming hiatus in India and other parts of the world, we find that both daytime and nighttime extreme measures have undergone substantial changes during or in the year following a dry year since 2002, with the probability distribution functions manifesting a hotter-than-normal climate during 1998-2013. This study shows that a few months preceding the 2010 record-breaking heat wave in Russia, India experienced the largest hot episode in the country's history. Interestingly, both these mega events are comparable in terms of their evolution and amplification. These findings emphasize the importance of planning for strategies in the context of the rising cooccurrence of dry and hot events.

Recent variations in geopotential height associated with West African monsoon variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Okoro, Ugochukwu K.; Chen, Wen; Nath, Debashis

2018-02-01

In the present study, the atmospheric circulation patterns associated with the seasonal West Africa (WA) monsoon (WAM) rainfall variability has been investigated. The observational rainfall data from the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) and atmospheric fields from the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis 2, from 1979 to 2014, have been used. The rainfall variability extremes, classified as wet or dry years, are the outcomes of simultaneous 6-month SPI at the three rainfall zones, which shows increasing trends [Guinea Coast (GC = 0.012 year-1), Eastern Sudano Sahel (ESS = 0.045 year-1) and Western Sudano Sahel (WSS = 0.056 year-1) from Sen's slope]; however, it is significant only in the Sahel region (α = 0.05 and α = 0.001 at ESS and WSS, respectively, from Mann-Kendall test). The vertical profile of the geopotential height (GpH) during the wet and dry years reveals that the 700 hPa anomalies show remarkable pattern at about 8°N to 13°N. This shows varying correlation with the zonal averaged vertically integrated moisture flux convergence and rainfall anomalies, respectively, as well as the oceanic pulsations indexes [Ocean Nino Index (ONI) and South Atlantic Ocean dipole index (SAODI), significant from t test], identified as precursors to the Sahel and GC rainfall variability respectively. The role of GpH anomalies at 700 hPa has been identified as the facilitator to the West African Westerly Jet's input to the moisture flux transported over the WA. This is a new perspective of the circulation processes associated with WAM and serves as a basis for modeling investigations.

Prevailing trends of climatic extremes across Indus-Delta of Sindh-Pakistan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abbas, Farhat; Rehman, Iqra; Adrees, Muhammad; Ibrahim, Muhammad; Saleem, Farhan; Ali, Shafaqat; Rizwan, Muhammad; Salik, Muhammad Raza

2018-02-01

This study examines the variability and change in the patterns of climatic extremes experienced in Indus-Delta of Sindh province of Pakistan, comprising regions of Karachi, Badin, Mohenjodaro, and Rohri. The homogenized daily minimum and maximum temperature and precipitation data for a 36-year period were used to calculate 13 and 11 indices of temperature and precipitation extremes with the help of RClimDex, a program written in the statistical software package R. A non-parametric Mann-Kendall test and Sen's slope estimates were used to determine the statistical significance and magnitude of the calculated trend. Temperatures of summer days and tropical nights increased in the region with overall significant warming trends for monthly maximum temperature as well as for warm days and nights reflecting dry conditions in the study area. The warm extremes and nighttime temperature indices showed greater trends than cold extremes and daytime indices depicting an overall warming trends in the Delta. Historic decrease in the acreage of major crops and over 33% decrease in agriculture credit for Sindh are the indicators of adverse impacts of warmer and drier weather on Sindh agriculture. Trends reported for Karachi and Badin are expected to decrease rice cultivation, hatching of fisheries, and mangroves forest surrounding these cities. Increase in the prevailing temperature trends will lead to increasingly hotter and drier summers resulting to constraints on cotton, wheat, and rice yield in Rohri and Mohenjodaro areas due to increased crop water requirements that may be met with additional groundwater pumping; nonetheless, the depleted groundwater resources would have a direct impact on the region's economy.

Food Vulnerability and Alluvial Farming for Food Security in Central Dry Zone Area of Myanmar

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boori, M. S.; Choudhary, K.; Evers, M.; Kupriyanov, A.

2017-10-01

The central dry zone area of Myanmar is the most water stressed and also one of the most food insecure regions in the country. In the Dry Zone area, the total population is 10.1 million people in 54 townships, in which approximately 43 % live in below poverty line and 40-50 % of the rural population is landless. Agriculture is the most important economic sector in Myanmar as it is essential for national food security and a major source of livelihood for its people. In this region the adverse effects of climate change such as late or early onset of monsoon season, longer dry spells, erratic rainfall, increasing temperature, heavy rains, stronger typhoons, extreme spatial-temporal variability of rainfall, high intensities, limited rainfall events in the growing season, heat stress, drought, flooding, sea water intrusion, land degradation, desertification, deforestation and other natural disasters are believed to be a major constraint to food insecurity. For food vulnerability, we use following indicators: slope, precipitation, vegetation, soil, erosion, land degradation and harvest failure in ArcGIS software. The erosion is influenced by rainfall and slope, while land degradation is directly related to vegetation, drainage and soil. While harvest failure can be generate by rainfall and flood potential zones. Results show that around 45 % study area comes under very high erosion danger level, 70 % under average harvest failure, 59 % intermediate land degradation area and the overall around 45 % study area comes under insecure food vulnerability zone. Our analysis shows an increase in alluvial farming by 1745.33 km2 since 1988 to reduce the insecure food vulnerability. Food vulnerability map is also relevant to increased population and low income areas. The extreme climatic events are likely increase in frequency and magnitude of serious drought periods and extreme floods. Food insecurity is an important thing that must be reviewed because it relates to the lives of many people. This paper is helpful for identifying the areas of food needs in central dry zone area of Myanmar.

Causes of the Extreme Dry Conditions Over California During Early 2013

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wang, Hailan; Schubert, Siegfried D.

2014-01-01

The 2013 SST anomalies produced a predilection for California drought, whereas the long-term warming trend appears to make no appreciable contribution because of the counteraction between its dynamical and thermodynamic effects.

Tree-Ring Dating of Extreme Lake Levels at the Subarctic?Boreal Interface

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bégin, Yves

2001-03-01

The dates of extreme water levels of two large lakes in northern Quebec have been recorded over the last century by ice scars on shoreline trees and sequences of reaction wood in shore trees tilted by wave erosion. Ice-scar chronologies indicate high water levels in spring, whereas tree-tilting by waves is caused by summer high waters. A major increase in both the amplitude and frequency of ice floods occurred in the 1930s. No such change was indicated by the tree-tilting chronologies, but wave erosion occurred in exceptionally rainy years. According to the modern record, spring lake-level rise is due to increased snowfalls since the 1930s. However, the absence of erosional marks in a large number of years since 1930 suggests a high frequency of low-water-level years resulting from dry conditions. Intercalary years with very large numbers of marked trees (e.g., 1935) indicate that the interannual range of summer lake levels has increased since the 1930s. Increased lake-flood frequency is postulated to be related to a slower expansion of arctic anticyclones, favoring the passage of cyclonic air masses over the area and resulting in abundant snowfall in early winter. Conditions in summer are due to the rate of weakening of the anticyclones controlling the position of the arctic front in summer. This position influences the path of the cyclonic air masses, which control summer precipitation and, consequently, summer lake levels in the area.

Classification and plausibility assessment of historical and future weather and climate anomalies (application for the Wupper River Basin, Germany)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scheibel, Marc; Lorza, Paula

2017-04-01

In the frame of the Horizon 2020 project BINGO (Bringing INnovation to onGOing water management), the effects of climate change scenarios on the water cycle in the Wupper River Basin are being currently investigated. The Wupper catchment area is prone to flash floods in summer, winter floods as well as dry periods. The occurrence of these events has increased in the last decades together with the shifting of the rainy season. BINGO approach focuses on, among others: a) identifying past weather extremes and anomalies due to climate change; and b) gaining deeper knowledge on the effects of soil moisture on water balance and runoff generation processes for reservoir management and enhancement of Wupper Association's flood early warning system. Historical hydro-meteorological extreme events are assessed based on daily records of long-term precipitation time series (ca. 80 years) as well as precipitation time series from downscaled reanalysis products (i.e., ERA-Interim). The determination of representative indices, e.g., Weather Extremity Index (WEI) or the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) serves to compensate for uncertainties in spatial and temporal recording of the parameters of individual processes. The WEI establishes the highest rainfall amount per station and its rarity, the extent of the affected area, and the event duration. For the evaluation of historical climate signals in the reference period and for the assessment of future scenarios, deviation of the mean monthly observed precipitation from the long-term mean value is determined as a first approach for several stations along the catchment area for individual months and different time scales. As a second approach, different indices such as SPI and SPEI (Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index) are calculated for different time scales in order to determine whether they were anomalously dry or wet. SPEI is more suitable for climate change analysis than SPI since the former considers not only precipitation but also temperature.

Retail yields and palatability evaluations of individual muscles from wet-aged and dry-aged beef ribeyes and top sirloin butts that were merchandised innovatively.

PubMed

Smith, A M; Harris, K B; Griffin, D B; Miller, R K; Kerth, C R; Savell, J W

2014-05-01

Paired ribeyes (n=24) and top sirloin butts (n=24) were dry-aged or wet-aged for 35 days before being merchandised as individual muscles: M. spinalis thoracis, M. longissimus thoracis, M. gluteobiceps, and M. gluteus medius. Wet-aged subprimals had greater saleable yields than dry-aged. Dry-aged M. spinalis thoracis and M. gluteobiceps received lower consumer overall like and flavor ratings than did wet-aged; interior muscles - M. longissimus thoracis and M. gluteus medius - did not differ. Trained panelists found higher musty and putrid flavors for dry-aged muscles closer to exterior surface. These flavors may have contributed to lower consumer overall like and flavor ratings for dry-aged M. spinalis thoracis and M. gluteobiceps. Using innovative styles to cut beef allows for greater merchandising options. However, development of undesirable flavor characteristics may be more pronounced when exterior muscles - M. spinalis thoracis and M. gluteobiceps - are exposed during dry-aging to extreme conditions and are consumed individually. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Climate Sensitivity to Shallow Groundwater Dynamics Inferred from Historical Groundwater Level Observations and Climate Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seyoum, W. M.; Wahls, B.

2017-12-01

The effect of land surface processes (e.g., change in vegetation and snow cover, and change in soil moisture) on climate is well understood. However, the connection between shallow groundwater fluctuation and regional climate variability is still unresolved. This project focuses on sensitivity of climate to shallow groundwater dynamics by analyzing the impact of shallow groundwater on soil moisture and precipitation. The study use co-located measurements of daily soil moisture, depth to groundwater level (DGWL), and climate (precipitation (R) and air temperature) data. Statistical relationship between soil moisture and DGWL at different depth established. Frequency, mean and cumulative climate extremes (R90, R99, R < 1mm) examined and compared with depth to groundwater level information at Bellville station, IL. Result indicate soil moisture has a strong inverse relationship with depth to groundwater level (r -0.75) when DGWL is between 0 to 2 m (critical depth) depth from the ground. Beyond this depth, there is no statistically significant correlation or trend between soil moisture and GWL. Within this critical depth, soil moisture is more or less constant during wet days (R ≥ 1mm) even though DGWL is fluctuating. However, soil moisture decrease exponentially as DGWL declining during dry days (R < 1mm). Thus, soil moisture is highly likely dependent on groundwater feedback in the critical depth. Comparison of DGWL with frequency and cumulative of subsequent summer and fall extreme precipitation (DGWL leading by 4-7 months) indicate higher frequency and magnitude of extreme wet precipitation (Rm > 150 mm) occur when DGWL is within the critical depth. As DGWL decreases below 2 m, frequency and magnitude of extreme precipitation diminishes. On the other hand, DGWL has no significant relationship with subsequent extreme dry condition, there is no statistically significant trend between frequency of R < 1mm and DGWL. Generally, depth to groundwater level influence soil moisture within 0 to 2 m depth form the ground. Groundwater level close to the ground (0 - 2 m) seems likely influence subsequent extreme wet condition while not conclusive is the influence of declining groundwater level (beyond 2 m) to subsequent dry conditions. The result support the broad hypothesis that shallow groundwater can influence climate.

Southern Arizona hydroclimate over the last 3000 years: a comparison of speleothem elemental data and climate model simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

King, J.; Harrington, M. D.; Cole, J. E.; Drysdale, R.; Woodhead, J. D.; Fasullo, J.; Stevenson, S.; Otto-Bliesner, B. L.; Overpeck, J. T.; Edwards, R. L.; Henderson, G. M.

2017-12-01

Understanding long-term hydroclimate is particularly important in semiarid regions where prolonged droughts may be exacerbated by a warming climate. In many regions, speleothem trace elements correlate with regional wet and dry climate signals. In the drought-prone Southwestern US (SW), wet and dry episodes are strongly influenced by seasonal changes in atmospheric circulation and teleconnections to remote forcing. Here, we address the need for seasonal moisture reconstructions using paleoclimate and climate model approaches. First, we present a high-resolution (sub-annual) record of speleothem trace elements spanning the last 3000 years from Fort Huachuca Cave, AZ, to investigate the variability of regional seasonal precipitation and sustained regional droughts. In a principal component (PC) analysis of the speleothem, trace elements associated with wet (Sr, Ba) and dry (P, Y, Zn) episodes load strongly and inversely, and the associated PC signals correlate with local gridded precipitation data over the last 50 years (R > 0.6, p < 0.1). These results suggest that the elemental signals provide a seasonal moisture record for Southern Arizona. We use the record to examine the frequency and timing of extreme droughts in the region and compare the speleothem record's frequency domain characteristics with other regional moisture records and with climate model output. The speleothem record demonstrates strong low-frequency variability with pronounced multi-decadal dry periods, a feature notably lacking in drought metrics from simulations of the last millennium. We also examine the seasonal SW precipitation response to modes of climate variability and external forcings, including volcanic eruptions, in both the speleothem record and the Community Earth System Model's Last Millennium Ensemble (CESM-LME). Notably, ENSO and volcanic forcing have a discernable effect on SW seasonal precipitation in model simulations, particularly when the two processes combine to shift the position of the ITCZ. This integrated analysis of paleodata with climate model results will help us identify and explain discrepancies between these information sources and improve stakeholders' ability to anticipate and prepare for future drought.

Different radial growth responses of co-occurring coniferous forest trees in the Alps to drought

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oberhuber, Walter; Mennel, Julia

2010-05-01

Species-specific drought resistance will effect the development of forest ecosystems under a warmer and drier climate by changing species composition and inducing shifts in forest distribution. Therefore, we applied dendroclimatological techniques to determine drought sensitivity of three native coniferous tree species (Norway spruce, Picea abies; European larch, Larix decidua; Scots pine, Pinus sylvestris), which differ in phenological and successional traits and grow intermixed at dry-mesic sites within an inner-Alpine dry valley (750 m a.s.l., Tyrol, Austria). Ring-width chronologies (resolution 1 µm) of each species were developed by extracting two core samples from ≥ 80 mature trees (mean tree age 135 yr). To identify the climatic factors most closely associated with variations in radial tree growth, we calculated response and correlation functions for the common interval from 1911-2007 using yearly tree-ring indices and monthly and seasonal climate variables (precipitation, air temperature) and evaluated growth response to extreme hot and/or dry conditions during the growing season. Additionally, the impact of climate warming on long-term variability of climate-growth relationships was analysed by means of moving response functions. Major finding of our study were: (i) current April through June precipitation was the environmental factor most strongly associated with growth of all three species (r = 0.484, 0.458, and 0.546 for Pinus sylvestris, Larix decidua and Picea abies, respectively; all P < 0.001), whereby Picea abies showed higher correlation coefficients with precipitation from May through June (r = 0.585, P < 0.001). (ii) Annual increment of Picea abies was most strongly limited by May through June temperature (r = -0.500, P < 0.001). (iii) Continuously increasing moving response function coefficients of monthly precipitation variables since the mid-20th century revealed increasing drought sensitivity of all species. During recent decades a significant inverse relationship between radial growth and early summer temperature was only detected for Picea abies. (iv) Analysis of distinct below-average growth in several years (1952, 1976, 1984, 1992 and 2005) indicated species-specific response to climate extremes, whereby Pinus sylvestris was the least drought sensitive species of the comparison. Results demonstrate that within the study area different growth responses of coniferous species to climate exist, which might be explained by temporal shifts in cambial activity and wood formation. Furthermore, our study shows that high temperature and limited water availability has the strongest impact on the growth performance of Picea abies, which will likely lead to increased tree mortality. Instable climate-growth relationships during recent decades, which occur coincidently with the recent warming trend, indicate increasing drought stress of all species, whereby within mixed coniferous stands Pinus sylvestris may benefit from adapting better to drier conditions in the future. High mortality rates of Pinus sylvestris, which have been observed in recent years at more xeric sites, support our findings that drought initiates changes of forest structure and species composition within this dry inner-Alpine valley.

Climate extremes and predicted warming threaten Mediterranean Holocene firs forests refugia

PubMed Central

Camarero, J. Julio; Carrer, Marco; Gutiérrez, Emilia; Alla, Arben Q.; Andreu-Hayles, Laia; Hevia, Andrea; Koutavas, Athanasios; Martínez-Sancho, Elisabet; Nola, Paola; Papadopoulos, Andreas; Pasho, Edmond; Toromani, Ervin

2017-01-01

Warmer and drier climatic conditions are projected for the 21st century; however, the role played by extreme climatic events on forest vulnerability is still little understood. For example, more severe droughts and heat waves could threaten quaternary relict tree refugia such as Circum-Mediterranean fir forests (CMFF). Using tree-ring data and a process-based model, we characterized the major climate constraints of recent (1950–2010) CMFF growth to project their vulnerability to 21st-century climate. Simulations predict a 30% growth reduction in some fir species with the 2050s business-as-usual emission scenario, whereas growth would increase in moist refugia due to a longer and warmer growing season. Fir populations currently subjected to warm and dry conditions will be the most vulnerable in the late 21st century when climatic conditions will be analogous to the most severe dry/heat spells causing dieback in the late 20th century. Quantification of growth trends based on climate scenarios could allow defining vulnerability thresholds in tree populations. The presented predictions call for conservation strategies to safeguard relict tree populations and anticipate how many refugia could be threatened by 21st-century dry spells. PMID:29109266

Climate extremes and predicted warming threaten Mediterranean Holocene firs forests refugia.

PubMed

Sánchez-Salguero, Raúl; Camarero, J Julio; Carrer, Marco; Gutiérrez, Emilia; Alla, Arben Q; Andreu-Hayles, Laia; Hevia, Andrea; Koutavas, Athanasios; Martínez-Sancho, Elisabet; Nola, Paola; Papadopoulos, Andreas; Pasho, Edmond; Toromani, Ervin; Carreira, José A; Linares, Juan C

2017-11-21

Warmer and drier climatic conditions are projected for the 21st century; however, the role played by extreme climatic events on forest vulnerability is still little understood. For example, more severe droughts and heat waves could threaten quaternary relict tree refugia such as Circum-Mediterranean fir forests (CMFF). Using tree-ring data and a process-based model, we characterized the major climate constraints of recent (1950-2010) CMFF growth to project their vulnerability to 21st-century climate. Simulations predict a 30% growth reduction in some fir species with the 2050s business-as-usual emission scenario, whereas growth would increase in moist refugia due to a longer and warmer growing season. Fir populations currently subjected to warm and dry conditions will be the most vulnerable in the late 21st century when climatic conditions will be analogous to the most severe dry/heat spells causing dieback in the late 20th century. Quantification of growth trends based on climate scenarios could allow defining vulnerability thresholds in tree populations. The presented predictions call for conservation strategies to safeguard relict tree populations and anticipate how many refugia could be threatened by 21st-century dry spells.

The Impact of Extreme Weather Events on Dissolved Organic Matter and Microbial Biomass of chernozem soils

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Müller, Ann-Christin; Blagodatskaya, Evgenia

2017-04-01

The aim of this experiment was to study the impact of the extreme weather events freezing-thawing and drying-rewetting on C-, N- and P-dynamics in dissolved organic matter and microbial biomass. The three variants of a chernozem soil (Voronezh region, Russia) are (1) fertilized maize cropping, (2) unfertilized maize cropping and (3) a bare fallow. After both abiotic perturbations the respiration rates were generally lower in the freezing-thawing than in the drying-rewetting treatment, due to the lower temperature. The elevated respiration came along with the decay of organic matter, which was also manifested in increased mineralization of C, N and P immediately after rewetting. However, freezing-thawing had significantly less impact on C-, N- and P-mobilization. We conclude that drying-rewetting leads to an initially increased mobilization of C, N and P, which becomes obvious as increased amounts of DOM immediately after rewetting. Freezing-thawing does not affect mobilization in the same way. There, only an increased mobilization of C can be observed. Especially concerning N and P, the reaction is dependent on the form of use/cropping in both treatments.

Morphology Development in Solution-Processed Functional Organic Blend Films: An In Situ Viewpoint.

PubMed

Richter, Lee J; DeLongchamp, Dean M; Amassian, Aram

2017-05-10

Solution-processed organic films are a facile route to high-speed, low cost, large-area deposition of electrically functional components (transistors, solar cells, emitters, etc.) that can enable a diversity of emerging technologies, from Industry 4.0, to the Internet of things, to point-of-use heath care and elder care. The extreme sensitivity of the functional performance of organic films to structure and the general nonequilibrium nature of solution drying result in extreme processing-performance correlations. In this Review, we highlight insights into the fundamentals of solution-based film deposition afforded by recent state-of-the-art in situ measurements of functional film drying. Emphasis is placed on multimodal studies that combine surface-sensitive X-ray scattering (GIWAXS or GISAXS) with optical characterization to clearly define the evolution of solute structure (aggregation, crystallinity, and morphology) with film thickness.

Towards prediction of heatwaves based on the complementary relationship between actual and potential evaporation - energy partitioning and hydrologic attributes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Or, D.; Aminzadeh, M.; Roderick, M. L.

2017-12-01

Prediction of extreme climate events such as heatwaves that are characterized by prolonged periods of high air temperatures (accompanied by low precipitation and high radiation) provides an opportunity to potentially mitigate the associated environmental, social and economic impacts. Vegetation may respond to these extreme conditions by reducing evaporative flux either due to soil water depletion or inability to meet the atmospheric evaporative demand (high canopy resistance). We implement a newly generalized Complementary Relationship (CR) for spatially heterogeneous land surfaces to predict the actual evaporation from drying landscapes covered by different vegetation types (i.e., grassland and forest). A strong correlation between air temperature and sensible heat flux anomalies identified from FLUXNET network data suggests that abrupt changes in sensible heat flux above climatological means can serve as indicators for predicting the onset of a heatwave. We thus capitalize on the inherent coupling between evaporative and sensible heat fluxes linked to moisture availability within the CR framework to predict rapid increase in regional sensible heat flux associated with soil drying (low precipitation) or with extreme evaporative demand (high radiation) while soil moisture is not limiting. The proposed approach evaluated using FLUXNET datasets provides an energy constraint framework based on the CR concept to obtain new insights into the onset of heatwaves and climate extremes such as regional droughts.

Westerly jet stream and past millennium climate change in Arid Central Asia simulated by COSMO-CLM model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fallah, Bijan; Sodoudi, Sahar; Cubasch, Ulrich

2016-05-01

This study tackles one of the most debated questions around the evolution of Central Asian climate: the "Puzzle" of moisture changes in Arid Central Asia (ACA) throughout the past millennium. A state-of-the-art Regional Climate Model (RCM) is subsequently employed to investigate four different 31-year time slices of extreme dry and wet spells, chosen according to changes in the driving data, in order to analyse the spatio-temporal evolution of the moisture variability in two different climatological epochs: Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and Little Ice Age (LIA). There is a clear regime behavior and bimodality in the westerly Jet phase space throughout the past millennium in ACA. The results indicate that the regime changes during LIA show a moist ACA and a dry East China. During the MCA, the Kazakhstan region shows a stronger response to the westerly jet equatorward shift than during the LIA. The out-of-phase pattern of moisture changes between India and ACA exists during both the LIA and the MCA. However, the pattern is more pronounced during the LIA.

Cleaning process for EUV optical substrates

DOEpatents

Weber, Frank J.; Spiller, Eberhard A.

1999-01-01

A cleaning process for surfaces with very demanding cleanliness requirements, such as extreme-ultraviolet (EUV) optical substrates. Proper cleaning of optical substrates prior to applying reflective coatings thereon is very critical in the fabrication of the reflective optics used in EUV lithographic systems, for example. The cleaning process involves ultrasonic cleaning in acetone, methanol, and a pH neutral soap, such as FL-70, followed by rinsing in de-ionized water and drying with dry filtered nitrogen in conjunction with a spin-rinse.

Extremely Low Frequency (ELF) Vertical Electric Field Exposure of Rats: Irradiation Facility

DTIC Science & Technology

1977-05-01

altered inside an animal cage even with wet or dry litter and full food and water containers. Rats weighing approximately 300 g in adjacent cages caused...with guard circuit Field inside empty cage Field inside complete cage ( litter (wet or dry) + food + water) Field variations caused by 300 g rat...blanket 250 Iron 60 Broiler 130 Hair dryer 40 Vaporizer 40 Refrigerator 60 Color TV 30 Stereo 90 Coffee pot 30 Vacuum cleaner 16 Clock radio

Consortia for Improving Medicine with Innovation and Technology (formerly known as Center for Integration of Medicine and Innovative Technology)

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-12-01

Period 2011 Out - 001585 11-484 Award Closed Hacking, Adam Non-invasive Fasciotomy to Treat Extremity Compartment Syndrome 2012 Out - 001706 12-1173...10-592 Award Closed Kaushal, Shalesh Low Energy Laser as a Therapeutic for Dry Age-related Macular Degeneration 2011 Out - 001607 11-397 Award Closed...Electrostatic dry powder inhaler for constant dose respiratory drug delivery 2010 Out - 000885 10-512 Award Closed McLaughlin, Bryan An implantable

Recovery of Mo/Si multilayer coated optical substrates

DOEpatents

Baker, Sherry L.; Vernon, Stephen P.; Stearns, Daniel G.

1997-12-16

Mo/Si multilayers are removed from superpolished ZERODUR and fused silica substrates with a dry etching process that, under suitable processing conditions, produces negligible change in either the substrate surface figure or surface roughness. The two step dry etching process removes SiO.sub.2 overlayer with a fluroine-containing gas and then moves molybdenum and silicon multilayers with a chlorine-containing gas. Full recovery of the initial normal incidence extreme ultra-violet (EUV) reflectance response has been demonstrated on reprocessed substrates.

Recovery of Mo/Si multilayer coated optical substrates

DOEpatents

Baker, S.L.; Vernon, S.P.; Stearns, D.G.

1997-12-16

Mo/Si multilayers are removed from superpolished ZERODUR and fused silica substrates with a dry etching process that, under suitable processing conditions, produces negligible change in either the substrate surface figure or surface roughness. The two step dry etching process removes SiO{sub 2} overlayer with a fluroine-containing gas and then moves molybdenum and silicon multilayers with a chlorine-containing gas. Full recovery of the initial normal incidence extreme ultra-violet (EUV) reflectance response has been demonstrated on reprocessed substrates. 5 figs.

Climate, not conflict, explains extreme Middle East dust storm

DOE PAGES

Parolari, Anthony J.; Li, Dan; Bou-Zeid, Elie; ...

2016-11-08

The recent dust storm in the Middle East (Sepember 2015) was publicized in the media as a sign of an impending 'Dust Bowl.' Its severity, demonstrated by extreme aerosol optical depth in the atmosphere in the 99th percentile compared to historical data, was attributed to the ongoing regional conflict. However, surface meteorological and remote sensing data, as well as regional climate model simulations, support an alternative hypothesis: the historically unprecedented aridity played a more prominent role, as evidenced by unusual climatic and meteorological conditions prior to and during the storm. Remotely sensed normalized difference vegetation index demonstrates that vegetation covermore » was high in 2015 relative to the prior drought and conflict periods, suggesting that agricultural activity was not diminished during that year, thus negating the media narrative. Instead, meteorological simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model show that the storm was associated with a cyclone and 'Shamal' winds, typical for dust storm generation in this region, that were immediately followed by an unusual wind reversal at low levels that spread dust west to the Mediterranean Coast. These unusual meteorological conditions were aided by a significant reduction in the critical shear stress due to extreme dry and hot conditions, thereby enhancing dust availability for erosion during this storm. Concluding, unusual aridity, combined with unique synoptic weather patterns, enhanced dust emission and westward long-range transport across the region, thus generating the extreme storm.« less

Climate, not conflict, explains extreme Middle East dust storm

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Parolari, Anthony J.; Li, Dan; Bou-Zeid, Elie

The recent dust storm in the Middle East (Sepember 2015) was publicized in the media as a sign of an impending 'Dust Bowl.' Its severity, demonstrated by extreme aerosol optical depth in the atmosphere in the 99th percentile compared to historical data, was attributed to the ongoing regional conflict. However, surface meteorological and remote sensing data, as well as regional climate model simulations, support an alternative hypothesis: the historically unprecedented aridity played a more prominent role, as evidenced by unusual climatic and meteorological conditions prior to and during the storm. Remotely sensed normalized difference vegetation index demonstrates that vegetation covermore » was high in 2015 relative to the prior drought and conflict periods, suggesting that agricultural activity was not diminished during that year, thus negating the media narrative. Instead, meteorological simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model show that the storm was associated with a cyclone and 'Shamal' winds, typical for dust storm generation in this region, that were immediately followed by an unusual wind reversal at low levels that spread dust west to the Mediterranean Coast. These unusual meteorological conditions were aided by a significant reduction in the critical shear stress due to extreme dry and hot conditions, thereby enhancing dust availability for erosion during this storm. Concluding, unusual aridity, combined with unique synoptic weather patterns, enhanced dust emission and westward long-range transport across the region, thus generating the extreme storm.« less

Estimating missing daily temperature extremes in Jaffna, Sri Lanka

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thevakaran, A.; Sonnadara, D. U. J.

2018-04-01

The accuracy of reconstructing missing daily temperature extremes in the Jaffna climatological station, situated in the northern part of the dry zone of Sri Lanka, is presented. The adopted method utilizes standard departures of daily maximum and minimum temperature values at four neighbouring stations, Mannar, Anuradhapura, Puttalam and Trincomalee to estimate the standard departures of daily maximum and minimum temperatures at the target station, Jaffna. The daily maximum and minimum temperatures from 1966 to 1980 (15 years) were used to test the validity of the method. The accuracy of the estimation is higher for daily maximum temperature compared to daily minimum temperature. About 95% of the estimated daily maximum temperatures are within ±1.5 °C of the observed values. For daily minimum temperature, the percentage is about 92. By calculating the standard deviation of the difference in estimated and observed values, we have shown that the error in estimating the daily maximum and minimum temperatures is ±0.7 and ±0.9 °C, respectively. To obtain the best accuracy when estimating the missing daily temperature extremes, it is important to include Mannar which is the nearest station to the target station, Jaffna. We conclude from the analysis that the method can be applied successfully to reconstruct the missing daily temperature extremes in Jaffna where no data is available due to frequent disruptions caused by civil unrests and hostilities in the region during the period, 1984 to 2000.

The Extreme Climate Index: a novel and multi-hazard index for extreme weather events.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cucchi, Marco; Petitta, Marcello; Calmanti, Sandro

2017-04-01

In this presentation we introduce the Extreme Climate Index (ECI): an objective, multi-hazard index capable of tracking changes in the frequency or magnitude of extreme weather events in African countries, thus indicating that a shift to a new climate regime is underway in a particular area. This index has been developed in the context of XCF (eXtreme Climate Facilities) project lead by ARC (African Risk Capacity, specialised agency of the African Union), and will be used in the payouts triggering mechanism of an insurance programme against risks related to the increase of frequency and magnitude of extreme weather events due to climate regimes' changes. The main hazards covered by ECI will be extreme dry, wet and heat events, with the possibility of adding region-specific risk events such as tropical cyclones for the most vulnerable areas. It will be based on data coming from consistent, sufficiently long, high quality historical records and will be standardized across broad geographical regions, so that extreme events occurring under different climatic regimes in Africa can be comparable. The first step to construct such an index is to define single hazard indicators. In this first study we focused on extreme dry/wet and heat events, using for their description respectively the well-known SPI (Standardized Precipitation Index) and an index developed by us, called SHI (Standardized Heat-waves Index). The second step consists in the development of a computational strategy to combine these, and possibly other indices, so that the ECI can describe, by means of a single indicator, different types of climatic extremes. According to the methodology proposed in this paper, the ECI is defined by two statistical components: the ECI intensity, which indicates whether an event is extreme or not; the angular component, which represent the contribution of each hazard to the overall intensity of the index. The ECI can thus be used to identify "extremes" after defining a suitable threshold above which the events can be held as extremes. In this presentation, after describing the methodology we used for the construction of the ECI, we present results obtained on different African regions, using NCEP Reanalysis dataset for air temperature at sig995 level and CHIRP dataset for precipitations. Particular attention will be devoted to 2015/2016 Malawi drought, which received some media attention due to the failure of the risk assessment model used to trigger due payouts: it will be shown how, on the contrary, combination of hydrological and temperature data used in ECI succeed in evaluating the extremeness of this event.

Mars-like soils in the Atacama Desert, Chile, and the dry limit of microbial life.

PubMed

Navarro-González, Rafael; Rainey, Fred A; Molina, Paola; Bagaley, Danielle R; Hollen, Becky J; de la Rosa, José; Small, Alanna M; Quinn, Richard C; Grunthaner, Frank J; Cáceres, Luis; Gomez-Silva, Benito; McKay, Christopher P

2003-11-07

The Viking missions showed the martian soil to be lifeless and depleted in organic material and indicated the presence of one or more reactive oxidants. Here we report the presence of Mars-like soils in the extreme arid region of the Atacama Desert. Samples from this region had organic species only at trace levels and extremely low levels of culturable bacteria. Two samples from the extreme arid region were tested for DNA and none was recovered. Incubation experiments, patterned after the Viking labeled-release experiment but with separate biological and nonbiological isomers, show active decomposition of organic species in these soils by nonbiological processes.

Food and agriculture in the 21st century: A cotton example

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Reddy, K.R.; Hodges, H.F.; McKinion, J.J.

1996-03-01

Cotton producers in the 21st century will be growing crops in different climates than today. Atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentration [CO{sub 2}] will likely exceed 700 {micro}l/l by the latter half of the next century, and the mean global temperature has been predicted to be 1.5 to 5.9 C higher than today. A 5 C increase will quadruple the number of days per year in which the mean temperature is above-optimum for cotton growth, and many days will be so hot that flowers will abscise in the US Cottonbelt. Further, the incidence of extreme weather events within a growing season hasmore » also been predicted to increase. Agricultural productivity is extremely sensitive to changes projected in the environment and if the projected changes occur, major changes in crop production will need to take place and both food and fiber will likely be very different from those of today. Doubling the atmospheric [CO{sub 2}] results in increased photosynthesis in C{sub 3} plants and dry matter accumulation. Season-long exposure to twice ambient [CO{sub 2}] (700 {micro}l/l) caused cotton plants growing in optimum temperature to produce 66% more dry matter than plants grown in ambient [CO{sub 2}]. Crops will respond to water and nitrogen deficits to about the same extent in a high-[CO{sub 2}] as to similar stresses in today`s ambient [CO{sub 2}] environment. The projected increases in temperature will cause more important and negative effects on crop production. 49 refs., 13 figs., 2 tabs.« less

Impact of the 2012 extreme drought conditions on private well owners in the United States, a qualitative analysis.

PubMed

Murti, Michelle; Yard, Ellen; Kramer, Rachel; Haselow, Dirk; Mettler, Mike; McElvany, Rocky; Martin, Colleen

2016-05-24

Extreme hot and dry weather during summer 2012 resulted in some of the most devastating drought conditions in the last half-century in the United States (U.S.). While public drinking water systems have contingency plans and access to alternative resources to maintain supply for their customers during drought, little is known about the impacts of drought on private well owners, who are responsible for maintaining their own water supply. The purpose of this investigation was to explore the public health impacts of the 2012 drought on private well owners' water quality and quantity, identify their needs for planning and preparing for drought, and to explore their knowledge, attitudes, and well maintenance behaviors during drought. In the spring of 2013, we conducted six focus group discussions with private well owners in Arkansas, Indiana, and Oklahoma. There were a total of 41 participants, two-thirds of whom were men aged 55 years or older. While participants agreed that 2012 was the worst drought in memory, few experienced direct impacts on their water quantity or quality. However, all groups had heard of areas or individuals whose wells had run dry. Participants conserved water by reducing their indoor and outdoor consumption, but they had few suggestions on additional ways to conserve, and they raised concerns about limiting water use too much. Participants wanted information on how to test their well and any water quality issues in their area. This investigation identified information needs regarding drought preparedness and well management for well owners.

Exposure of trees to drought-induced die-off is defined by a common climatic threshold across different vegetation types

PubMed Central

Mitchell, Patrick J; O'Grady, Anthony P; Hayes, Keith R; Pinkard, Elizabeth A

2014-01-01

Increases in drought and temperature stress in forest and woodland ecosystems are thought to be responsible for the rise in episodic mortality events observed globally. However, key climatic drivers common to mortality events and the impacts of future extreme droughts on tree survival have not been evaluated. Here, we characterize climatic drivers associated with documented tree die-off events across Australia using standardized climatic indices to represent the key dimensions of drought stress for a range of vegetation types. We identify a common probabilistic threshold associated with an increased risk of die-off across all the sites that we examined. We show that observed die-off events occur when water deficits and maximum temperatures are high and exist outside 98% of the observed range in drought intensity; this threshold was evident at all sites regardless of vegetation type and climate. The observed die-off events also coincided with at least one heat wave (three consecutive days above the 90th percentile for maximum temperature), emphasizing a pivotal role of heat stress in amplifying tree die-off and mortality processes. The joint drought intensity and maximum temperature distributions were modeled for each site to describe the co-occurrence of both hot and dry conditions and evaluate future shifts in climatic thresholds associated with the die-off events. Under a relatively dry and moderate warming scenario, the frequency of droughts capable of inducing significant tree die-off across Australia could increase from 1 in 24 years to 1 in 15 years by 2050, accompanied by a doubling in the occurrence of associated heat waves. By defining commonalities in drought conditions capable of inducing tree die-off, we show a strong interactive effect of water and high temperature stress and provide a consistent approach for assessing changes in the exposure of ecosystems to extreme drought events. PMID:24772285

Association of weather and air pollution interactions on daily mortality in 12 Canadian cities.

PubMed

Vanos, J K; Cakmak, S; Kalkstein, L S; Yagouti, Abderrahmane

It has been well established that both meteorological attributes and air pollution concentrations affect human health outcomes. We examined all cause nonaccident mortality relationships for 28 years (1981-2008) in relation to air pollution and synoptic weather type (encompassing air mass) data in 12 Canadian cities. This study first determines the likelihood of summertime extreme air pollution events within weather types using spatial synoptic classification. Second, it examines the modifying effect of weather types on the relative risk of mortality (RR) due to daily concentrations of air pollution (nitrogen dioxide, ozone, sulfur dioxide, and particulate matter <2.5 μm). We assess both single- and two-pollutant interactions to determine dependent and independent pollutant effects using the relatively new time series technique of distributed lag nonlinear modeling (DLNM). Results display dry tropical (DT) and moist tropical plus (MT+) weathers to result in a fourfold and twofold increased likelihood, respectively, of an extreme pollution event (top 5 % of pollution concentrations throughout the 28 years) occurring. We also demonstrate statistically significant effects of single-pollutant exposure on mortality ( p  < 0.05) to be dependent on summer weather type, where stronger results occur in dry moderate (fair weather) and DT or MT+ weather types. The overall average single-effect RR increases due to pollutant exposure within DT and MT+ weather types are 14.9 and 11.9 %, respectively. Adjusted exposures (two-way pollutant effect estimates) generally results in decreased RR estimates, indicating that the pollutants are not independent. Adjusting for ozone significantly lowers 67 % of the single-pollutant RR estimates and reduces model variability, which demonstrates that ozone significantly controls a portion of the mortality signal from the model. Our findings demonstrate the mortality risks of air pollution exposure to differ by weather type, with increased accuracy obtained when accounting for interactive effects through adjustment for dependent pollutants using a DLNM.

The Hyperarid Core of the Atacama Desert, an Extremely Dry and Carbon Deprived Habitat of Potential Interest for the Field of Carbon Science.

PubMed

Azua-Bustos, Armando; González-Silva, Carlos; Corsini, Gino

2017-01-01

The Atacama Desert in Chile is the driest and oldest desert on Earth, also considered one of the best Mars analog models. Here, several heterotrophic microbial communities have been discovered in its driest regions, with the ones present in the soil subsurface being one of the most interesting due to its existence in a habitat with almost no water available and almost undetectable organic carbon sources. Our recent discovery of the driest site of the Atacama known to date (and the heterotrophic microbial species that are able to survive in this site) reaffirms the opportunity to better characterize the physiological and molecular mechanisms that these species use to detect, mobilize, incorporate and use carbon under these extremely harsh conditions. Here we summarize what has been reported up to date on the organic carbon concentrations in different sites of the hyperarid core of the Atacama Desert, proposing that due to the meager amounts of carbon and extremely dry conditions, the microbial communities of the hyperarid core of the Atacama Desert may be of interest for the field of carbon science.

The relative contribution of climate to changes in lesser prairie-chicken abundance

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ross, Beth E.; Haukos, David A.; Hagen, Christian A.; Pitman, James

2016-01-01

Managing for species using current weather patterns fails to incorporate the uncertainty associated with future climatic conditions; without incorporating potential changes in climate into conservation strategies, management and conservation efforts may fall short or waste valuable resources. Understanding the effects of climate change on species in the Great Plains of North America is especially important, as this region is projected to experience an increased magnitude of climate change. Of particular ecological and conservation interest is the lesser prairie-chicken (Tympanuchus pallidicinctus), which was listed as “threatened” under the U.S. Endangered Species Act in May 2014. We used Bayesian hierarchical models to quantify the effects of extreme climatic events (extreme values of the Palmer Drought Severity Index [PDSI]) relative to intermediate (changes in El Niño Southern Oscillation) and long-term climate variability (changes in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation) on trends in lesser prairie-chicken abundance from 1981 to 2014. Our results indicate that lesser prairie-chicken abundance on leks responded to environmental conditions of the year previous by positively responding to wet springs (high PDSI) and negatively to years with hot, dry summers (low PDSI), but had little response to variation in the El Niño Southern Oscillation and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Additionally, greater variation in abundance on leks was explained by variation in site relative to broad-scale climatic indices. Consequently, lesser prairie-chicken abundance on leks in Kansas is more strongly influenced by extreme drought events during summer than other climatic conditions, which may have negative consequences for the population as drought conditions intensify throughout the Great Plains.

Variability of carbon and water fluxes following climate extremes over a tropical forest in southwestern Amazonia.

PubMed

Zeri, Marcelo; Sá, Leonardo D A; Manzi, Antônio O; Araújo, Alessandro C; Aguiar, Renata G; von Randow, Celso; Sampaio, Gilvan; Cardoso, Fernando L; Nobre, Carlos A

2014-01-01

The carbon and water cycles for a southwestern Amazonian forest site were investigated using the longest time series of fluxes of CO2 and water vapor ever reported for this site. The period from 2004 to 2010 included two severe droughts (2005 and 2010) and a flooding year (2009). The effects of such climate extremes were detected in annual sums of fluxes as well as in other components of the carbon and water cycles, such as gross primary production and water use efficiency. Gap-filling and flux-partitioning were applied in order to fill gaps due to missing data, and errors analysis made it possible to infer the uncertainty on the carbon balance. Overall, the site was found to have a net carbon uptake of ≈5 t C ha(-1) year(-1), but the effects of the drought of 2005 were still noticed in 2006, when the climate disturbance caused the site to become a net source of carbon to the atmosphere. Different regions of the Amazon forest might respond differently to climate extremes due to differences in dry season length, annual precipitation, species compositions, albedo and soil type. Longer time series of fluxes measured over several locations are required to better characterize the effects of climate anomalies on the carbon and water balances for the whole Amazon region. Such valuable datasets can also be used to calibrate biogeochemical models and infer on future scenarios of the Amazon forest carbon balance under the influence of climate change.

Meteorological drought patterns and climate change for the island of Crete

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koutroulis, Aristeidis G.; Vrohidou, Aggeliki K.; Tsanis, Ioannis K.; Jacob, Daniela

2010-05-01

A new index, named SN-SPI (Spatially Normalized-Standardized Precipitation Index), has been developed for assessing meteorological droughts. The SN-SPI is a variant index to SPI (Standardized Precipitation Index) and is based on the probability of precipitation at different time scales, but it is spatially normalized for improved assessment of drought severity. Results of this index incorporate the spatial distribution of precipitation and produces improved drought warnings. This index is applied in the island of Crete (Greece) and the drought results are compared to the ones of SPI. A 30-year long average monthly precipitation dataset from 130 watersheds of the island is used by the above indices for drought classification in terms of its duration and intensity. Bias adjusted monthly precipitation estimates from REMO regional climate model used to quantify the influence of global warming to drought conditions over the period 2010 - 2100. Results based on both indices from 3 basins in west, central and east part of the island show that: a) the extreme drought periods are the same (5%-7% of time) but the intensities based on SN-SPI are lower, b) the area covered by extreme droughts is 25% and 80% based on the SN-SPI and SPI respectively, c) more than half of the area of Crete is experiencing drought conditions during 46% of the 1973-2004 period and 7%, 63% and 92% for 2010-2040, 2040-2070 and 2070-2100 respectively and d) extremely dry conditions will cover 5% of the island for the future 90-year period.

Response of Amazon Fires to the 2015/2016 El Niño and Evaluation of a Seasonal Fire Season Severity Forecast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Randerson, J. T.

2016-12-01

Recent work has established that year-to-year variability in drought and fire within the Amazon responds to a dual forcing from ocean-atmosphere interactions in the tropical Pacific and North Atlantic. Teleconnections between the Pacific and the Amazon are strongest between October and March, when El Niño contributes to below-average precipitation during the wet season. A reduced build-up of soil moisture during the wet season, in turn, may limit water availability and transpiration in tropical forests during the following dry season, lowering surface humidity, drying fuels, and allowing fires to spread more easily through the understory. The delayed influence of soil moisture through this land - atmosphere coupling provides a means to predict fire season severity 3-6 months before the onset of the dry season. With the aim of creating new opportunities for forest conservation, we have developed an experimental seasonal fire forecasting system for the Amazon. The 2016 fire season severity forecast, released in June by UCI and NASA, predicts unusually high risk across eastern Peru, northern Bolivia, and Brazil. Several surface and satellite data streams confirm that El Niño teleconnections had a significant impact on wet season hydrology within the Amazon. Rainfall observations from the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre provided evidence that cumulative precipitation deficits during August-April were 1 to 2 standard deviations below the long-term mean for most of the basin. These observations were corroborated by strong negative terrestrial water storage anomalies measured by the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment, and by fluorescence and vegetation index observations from other sensors that indicated elevated canopy stress. By August 3rd, satellite observations showed above average fire activity in most, but not all, forecast regions. Using additional satellite observations that become available later this year, we plan to describe the full spatial and temporal pattern of fires within the Amazon during the 2016 dry season and evaluate the success of our forecast. As a part of this analysis, we will compare fires from 2016 with other years of extreme drought (i.e., 2005 and 2010), and assess how trends in land use, including regional changes in deforestation, modify El Niño-driven fire risk.

Variability of western Amazon dry-season precipitation extremes: importance of decadal fluctuations and implications for predictability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fernandes, K.; Baethgen, W.; Verchot, L. V.; Giannini, A.; Pinedo-Vasquez, M.

2014-12-01

A complete assessment of climate change projections requires understanding the combined effects of decadal variability and long-term trends and evaluating the ability of models to simulate them. The western Amazon severe droughts of the 2000s were the result of a modest drying trend enhanced by reduced moisture transport from the tropical Atlantic. Most of the WA dry-season precipitation decadal variability is attributable to decadal fluctuations of the north-south gradient (NSG) in Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST). The observed WA and NSG decadal co-variability is well reproduced in Global Climate Models (GCMs) pre-industrial control (PIC) and historical (HIST) experiments that were part of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change fifth assessment report (IPCC-AR5). This suggests that unforced or natural climate variability, characteristic of the PIC simulations, determines the nature of this coupling, as the results from HIST simulations (forced with greenhouse gases (GHG) and natural and anthropogenic aerosols) are comparable in magnitude and spatial distribution. Decadal fluctuation in the NSG also determines shifts in the probability of repeated droughts and pluvials in WA, as there is a 65% chance of 3 or more years of droughts per decade when NSG>0 compared to 18% when NSG<0. The HIST and PIC model simulations also reproduce the observed shifts in probability distribution of droughts and pluvials as a function of the NSG decadal phase, suggesting there is great potential for decadal predictability based on GCMs. Persistence of the current NSG positive phase may lead to continuing above normal frequencies of western Amazon dry-season droughts.

Global Climate Model Simulated Hydrologic Droughts and Floods in the Nelson-Churchill Watershed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vieira, M. J. F.; Stadnyk, T. A.; Koenig, K. A.

2014-12-01

There is uncertainty surrounding the duration, magnitude and frequency of historical hydroclimatic extremes such as hydrologic droughts and floods prior to the observed record. In regions where paleoclimatic studies are less reliable, Global Climate Models (GCMs) can provide useful information about past hydroclimatic conditions. This study evaluates the use of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) GCMs to enhance the understanding of historical droughts and floods across the Canadian Prairie region in the Nelson-Churchill Watershed (NCW). The NCW is approximately 1.4 million km2 in size and drains into Hudson Bay in Northern Manitoba, Canada. One hundred years of observed hydrologic records show extended dry and wet periods in this region; however paleoclimatic studies suggest that longer, more severe droughts have occurred in the past. In Manitoba, where hydropower is the primary source of electricity, droughts are of particular interest as they are important for future resource planning. Twenty-three GCMs with daily runoff are evaluated using 16 metrics for skill in reproducing historic annual runoff patterns. A common 56-year historic period of 1950-2005 is used for this evaluation to capture wet and dry periods. GCM runoff is then routed at a grid resolution of 0.25° using the WATFLOOD hydrological model storage-routing algorithm to develop streamflow scenarios. Reservoir operation is naturalized and a consistent temperature scenario is used to determine ice-on and ice-off conditions. These streamflow simulations are compared with the historic record to remove bias using quantile mapping of empirical distribution functions. GCM runoff data from pre-industrial and future projection experiments are also bias corrected to obtain extended streamflow simulations. GCM streamflow simulations of more than 650 years include a stationary (pre-industrial) period and future periods forced by radiative forcing scenarios. Quantile mapping adjusts for magnitude only while maintaining the GCM's sequencing of events, allowing for the examination of differences in historic and future hydroclimatic extremes. These bias corrected streamflow scenarios provide an alternative to stochastic simulations for hydrologic data analysis and can aid future resource planning and environmental studies.

Applying Customized Climate Advisory Information to Translate Extreme Rainfall Events into Farming Options in the Sudan-Sahel of West Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salack, S.; Worou, N. O.; Sanfo, S.; Nikiema, M. P.; Boubacar, I.; Paturel, J. E.; Tondoh, E. J.

2017-12-01

In West Africa, the risk of food insecurity linked to the low productivity of small holder farming increases as a result of rainfall extremes. In its recent evolution, the rainy season in the Sudan-Sahel zone presents mixed patterns of extreme climatic events. In addition to intense rain events, the distribution of events is associated with pockets of intra-seasonal long dry spells. The negative consequences of these mixed patterns are obvious on the farm: soil water logging, erosion of arable land, dwartness and dessication of crops, and loss in production. The capacity of local farming communities to respond accordingly to rainfall extreme events is often constrained by lack of access to climate information and advisory on smart crop management practices that can help translate extreme rainfall events into farming options. The objective of this work is to expose the framework and the pre-liminary results of a scheme that customizes climate-advisory information package delivery to subsistence farmers in Bakel (Senegal), Ouahigouya & Dano (Burkina Faso) and Bolgatanga (Ghana) for sustainable family agriculture. The package is based on the provision of timely climate information (48-hours, dekadal & seasonal) embedded with smart crop management practices to explore and exploite the potential advantage of intense rainfall and extreme dry spells in millet, maize, sorghum and cowpea farming communities. It is sent via mobile phones and used on selected farms (i.e agro-climatic farm schools) on which some small on-farm infrastructure were built to alleviate negative impacts of weather. Results provide prominent insight on how co-production of weather/climate information, customized access and guidiance on its use can induce fast learning (capacity building of actors), motivation for adaptation, sustainability, potential changes in cropping system, yields and family income in the face of a rainfall extremes at local scales of Sudan-Sahel of West Africa. Keywords: Climate Information, Smart Practices, Farming Options, Agro-Climatic Farm Schools, Sudan-Sahel

Hay preservation with propionic acid

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Most hay producers are quite familiar with the problems associated with baling moist hays. Normally, these problems include spontaneous heating, increased evidence of mold, losses of dry matter (DM) during storage, poorer nutritive value, and (in extreme cases) spontaneous combustion. Numerous fact...

The El Nino/Southern Oscillation and Future Soybean Prices

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Keppenne, C.

1993-01-01

Recently, it was shown that the application of a method combining singular spectrum analysis (SSA) and the maximum entropy method to univariate indicators of the coupled ocean-atmosphere El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon can be helpful in determining whether an El Nino (EN) or La Nina (LN) event will occur. SSA - a variant of principal component analysis applied in the time domain - filters out variability unrelated to ENSO and separates the quasi-biennial (QB), two-to-three year variability, from a lower-frequency (LF) four-to-six year EN-LN cycle; the total variance associated with ENSO combines the QB and LF modes. ENSO has been known to affect weather conditions over much of the globe. For example, EN events have been connected with unusually rainy weather over the Central and Western US, while the opposite phases of the oscillation (LN) have been plausibly associated with extreme dry conditions over much of the same geographical area...

Solarnorth '81 by Tymura Solardesigns: diverse residential, commercial and industrial projects at and above the 48th parallel in Ontario, Canada

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tymura, E.J.

1981-01-01

Solar Energy Heating Applications are On the Rise in and above the Northwestern City of Thunder Bay, on the northern shore of Lake Superior. Unique in their diversifications, the architectural commissions range from pure passive residential design thru hybrid systems; residential Greenhouse-Solarium active swimming pool and commercial hotel pool to inexpensive hybrid system for Canada's First Commercial Solar Lumber Drying Kiln; as well as combined earth sheltered with solar system design for a dormitory complex and shopping center. By May 1981, 7 buildings designed by Tymura Solardesigns in the Thunder Bay area will have been subjected to the Extreme Canadianmore » climate (10,500/sup 0/F degree days, yearly temperature maximums from -41/sup 0/F to 90/sup 0/F, and solar fractions vary from 50% to 75%, with economic payback periods ranging between 7 and 10 years.« less

Characterizing phenological vegetation dynamics amidst extreme climate variability in Australia with MODIS VI data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Broich, M.; Huete, A. R.; Xuanlon, M.; Davies, K.; Restrepo-Coupe, N.; Ratana, P.

2012-12-01

Australia's climate is extremely variable with inter-annual rainfall at any given site varying by 5- or 6-fold or more, across the continent. In addition to such inter-annual variability, there can be significant intra-annual variability, especially in monsoonal Australia (e.g. the wet tropical savannas) and Mediterranean climates in SW Australia where prolonged dry seasons occur each year. This presents unique challenges to the characterization of seasonal dynamics with satellite datasets. In contrast to annual reoccurring temperature-driven phenology of northern hemisphere mid-latitudes, vegetation dynamics of the vast and dry Australian interior are poorly quantified by existing remote sensing products. For example, in the current global-based MODIS phenology product, central Australia is covered by ~30% fill values for any given year. Two challenges are specific to Australian landscapes: first, the difficulty of characterizing seasonality of rainfall-driven ecosystems in interior Australia where duration and magnitude of green-up and brown down cycles show high inter annual variability; second, modeling two phenologic layers, the trees and the grass in savannas were the trees are evergreen but the herbaceous understory varies with rainfall. Savannas cover >50% of Australia. Australia's vegetation and climate are different from other continents. A MODIS phenology product capable of characterizing vegetation dynamics across the continent is being developed in this research as part of the AusCover national expert network aiming to provide Australian biophysical remote sensing data time-series and continental-scale map products. These products aim to support the Terrestrial Ecosystem Research Network (TERN) serving ecosystem research in Australia. The MODIS land surface product for Australia first searches the entire time series of each Climate Modeling Grid pixel for low-high-low extreme point sequences. A double logistic function is then fit to each of these sequences allowing identification of growth periods with different magnitudes and durations anywhere in the time series. Results show that the highest absolute variability in peak greenness occurred in cropped areas while the highest relative variability (coefficient of variation) occurred in interior Australia particularly around Lake Eyre, the center of a closed drainage basin in the dry interior of the continent. Across the desert interior, the timing of the green-up onset and the peak greenness was correlated with the landfall of cyclones and the inland penetration and strength of the north Australian summer monsoon (represented by TRMM data). The variability of Australian land surface phenology magnitude and timing was found to be strongly correlated with the swings between La Nina and El Nino events. The information on vegetation dynamics represented here is critical for land surface, fuel accumulation, agricultural production, and permanent ecosystem change modeling in relation to climate trends. A unique research opportunity is provided by recent climate variability: in 2010 a persistent El Nino has given way to a strong two-year La Nina breaking a decade long drought that was followed by record-breaking rainfall across most of the continent and extensive flooding followed by sustained greening.

Proxy-based reconstruction of erythemal UV doses over Estonia for 1955 2004

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eerme, K.; Veismann, U.; Lätt, S.

2006-08-01

A proxy-based reconstruction of the erythemally-weighted UV doses for 1955-2004 has been performed for the Tartu-Tõravere Meteorological Station (58°16' N, 26°28' E, 70 m a.s.l.) site. The pyrheliometer-measured daily sum of direct irradiance on partly cloudy and clear days, and the pyranometer-measured daily sum of global irradiance on overcast days were used as the cloudiness influence related proxies. The TOMS ozone data have been used for detecting the daily deviations from the climatic value (averaged annual cycle). In 1998-2004, the biases between the measured and reconstructed daily doses in 55.5% of the cases were within ±10% and in 83.5% of the cases within ±20%, on average. In the summer half-year these amounts were 62% and 88%, respectively. In most years the results for longer intervals did not differ significantly, if no correction was made for the daily deviations of total ozone from its climatic value. The annual and summer half-yearly erythemal doses (contributing, on average, 89% of the annual value) agreed within ±2%, except for the years after major volcanic eruptions and one extremely fine weather year (2002). Using the daily relative sunshine duration as a proxy without detailed correction for atmospheric turbidity results in biases of 2-4% in the summer half-yearly dose in the years after major volcanic eruptions and a few other years of high atmospheric turbidity. The year-to-year variations of the summer half-yearly erythemal dose in 1955-2004 were found to be within 92-111% relative to their average value. Exclusion of eight extreme years reduces this range for the remaining to 95-105.5%. Due to the quasi-periodic alternation of wet and dry periods, the interval of cloudy summers 1976-1993 regularly manifests summer half-yearly erythemal dose values lower than the 1955-2004 average. Since 1996/1997 midwinters have been darker than on average.

Climate change tendencies observable in the rainfall measurements since 1950 in the federal land of North Rhine-Westphalia and their consequences for urban hydrology.

PubMed

Einfalt, T; Quirmbach, M; Langstädtler, G; Mehlig, B

2011-01-01

Climate change is present in climatological models - but did we already observe changes in the past measurement data? For the state of North Rhine Westphalia, the rainfall measurements since 1950 have been systematically analysed in order to find out whether there have already been trends and whether the behaviour of rainfall has changed in time. More than 600 station series have been screened for use in the project and quality controlled. Implausible data were discarded. For the analysis, standard values such as yearly sums, half-yearly sums, monthly sums, number of dry days, number of days with precipitation above a threshold, partial time series and extreme values statistics have been calculated and evaluated. Results show that also in the past 50 years, changes in precipitation regime could be observed. These changes have been regionally different. Consequences for urban hydrology include a development of more flexible design approaches.

Microbial Communities of High-Elevation Fumaroles, Penitentes, and Dry Tephra "Soils" of the Puna de Atacama Volcanic Zone.

PubMed

Solon, Adam J; Vimercati, Lara; Darcy, J L; Arán, Pablo; Porazinska, Dorota; Dorador, C; Farías, M E; Schmidt, S K

2018-01-05

The aim of this study was to understand the spatial distribution of microbial communities (18S and 16S rRNA genes) across one of the harshest terrestrial landscapes on Earth. We carried out Illumina sequencing using samples from two expeditions to the high slopes (up to 6050 m.a.s.l.) of Volcán Socompa and Llullaillaco to describe the microbial communities associated with the extremely dry tephra compared to areas that receive water from fumaroles and ice fields made up of nieves penitentes. There were strong spatial patterns relative to these landscape features with the most diverse (alpha diversity) communities being associated with fumaroles. Penitentes did not significantly increase alpha diversity compared to dry tephra at the same elevation (5825 m.a.s.l.) on Volcán Socompa, but the structure of the 18S community (beta diversity) was significantly affected by the presence of penitentes on both Socompa and Llullaillaco. In addition, the 18S community was significantly different in tephra wetted by penitentes versus dry tephra sites across many elevations on Llullaillaco. Traditional phototrophs (algae and cyanobacteria) were abundant in wetter tephra associated with fumaroles, and algae (but not cyanobacteria) were common in tephra associated with penitentes. Dry tephra had neither algae nor cyanobacteria but did host potential phototrophs in the Rhodospirillales on Volcán Llullaillaco, but not on Socompa. These results provide new insights into the distribution of microbes across one of the most extreme terrestrial environments on Earth and provide the first ever glimpse of life associated with nieves penitentes, spire-shaped ice structures that are widespread across the mostly unexplored high-elevation Andean Central Volcanic Zone.

Global Warming Induced Changes in Rainfall Characteristics in IPCC AR5 Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, William K. M.; Wu, Jenny, H.-T.; Kim, Kyu-Myong

2012-01-01

Changes in rainfall characteristic induced by global warming are examined from outputs of IPCC AR5 models. Different scenarios of climate warming including a high emissions scenario (RCP 8.5), a medium mitigation scenario (RCP 4.5), and 1% per year CO2 increase are compared to 20th century simulations (historical). Results show that even though the spatial distribution of monthly rainfall anomalies vary greatly among models, the ensemble mean from a sizable sample (about 10) of AR5 models show a robust signal attributable to GHG warming featuring a shift in the global rainfall probability distribution function (PDF) with significant increase (>100%) in very heavy rain, reduction (10-20% ) in moderate rain and increase in light to very light rains. Changes in extreme rainfall as a function of seasons and latitudes are also examined, and are similar to the non-seasonal stratified data, but with more specific spatial dependence. These results are consistent from TRMM and GPCP rainfall observations suggesting that extreme rainfall events are occurring more frequently with wet areas getting wetter and dry-area-getting drier in a GHG induced warmer climate.

Riverine C, N, Si and P transport to the coastal ocean: An overview

USGS Publications Warehouse

Peterson, David H.; Hager, Stephen W.; Schemel, Laurence E.; Cayan, Daniel R.

1988-01-01

Terrestrial ecosystems cycle and recyle inorganic nutrients including a feedback to atmospheric dry deposition and precipitation (cf. Lewis et al., 1985). Each year, however, a small fraction per unit area of the atmosphere/plant/soil flux leaks from these land-based cycles via precipitation/runoff (Meybeck, 1982). These losses are, in general, unpreventable. Moreover, such nutrient “losses” have increased with increasing human population (Wollast, 1983); although to some extent this anthropogenic component can be controlled. Most rivers eventually flow into estuaries and the coastal ocean where their natural and anthropogenic nutrient loads continue to recycle, are lost to the atmosphere, or are buried in sediment. In one extreme, when riverine nutrient concentrations are exceedingly low, as in southwestern Canadian streams (Naiman and Sibert, 1978; Stockner and Shortreed, 1978, 1985), downstream plant biomass can be nutrient limited. In the other extreme, when these nutrient concentrations are very high such as in highly populated European river basins, downstream plant biomass can increase, perhaps intensifying natural anoxia cycles within the receiving estuarine/coastal ocean waters if these waters are stratified (Rosenberg, 1985).

Varve-based Reconstruction of Seasonal Hydroclimate from Nar Gölü, Turkey over the last 2.6 ka BP

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Primmer, N.; Jones, M.; Metcalfe, S. E.; Eastwood, W.; Brauer, A.; Roberts, C. N.

2017-12-01

In south-west Asia, the wet-dry seasonality and semi-arid climatology increases societal vulnerability to drought. Long, continuous records of such droughts from the region are therefore important to put recent extremes in context, to benchmark natural variability in water availability. We present the longest annual record of south-west Asian climate to date, spanning the entirety of the Common Era. We reconstruct seasonal hydrological change from a climatically sensitive lake, Nar Gölü, Turkey over the past 2,589 years using varve sedimentology. Organic-calcareous varve deposition is driven by the climatic wet-dry seasonality, where varve microfacies analysis has developed an inter- and intra-annual record of the resultant limnological variability. Calibration using modern meteorological data identified that the March-May evaporation/precipitation ratio as the primary control on carbonate sublayer thickness. Combining these analyses with previous stable isotope, pollen and diatom records from the same cores further develops a holistic environmental record of palaeoseasonality able to gauge past and present hydrology, including drought severity. Two threshold hydrological changes to the spring growing season are well-dated at 535 and 1406 AD, thus coinciding with the onset of the Late Antiquity Little Ice Age (LALIA) and Little Ice Age (LIA) respectively. Carbonate mineralogy indicates generally fresher water conditions during the intermediary 871-year long period, with an inferred dry period at 850 AD possibly marking the start of regional, long-term aridification. By reconstructing high resolution hydroclimate, this well constrained annual record of past water availability provides a unique context for understanding climate change and its potential impact in this vulnerable region.

Balancing-out floods and droughts: Opportunities to utilize floodwater harvesting and groundwater storage for agricultural development in Thailand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pavelic, Paul; Srisuk, Kriengsak; Saraphirom, Phayom; Nadee, Suwanchai; Pholkern, Kewaree; Chusanathas, Sumrit; Munyou, Sitisak; Tangsutthinon, Theerasak; Intarasut, Teerawash; Smakhtin, Vladimir

2012-11-01

SummaryThailand's naturally high seasonal endowment of water resources brings with it the regularly experienced problems associated with floods during the wet season and droughts during the dry season. Downstream-focused engineering solutions that address flooding are vital, but do not necessarily capture the potential for basin-scale improvements to water security, food production and livelihood enhancement. Managed aquifer recharge, typically applied to annual harvesting of wet season flows in dry climates, can also be applied to capture, store and recover episodic extreme flood events in humid environments. In the Chao Phraya River Basin it is estimated that surplus flows recorded downstream above a critical threshold could be harvested and recharged within the shallow alluvial aquifers in a distributed manner upstream of flood prone areas without significantly impacting existing large-medium storages or the Gulf and deltaic ecosystems. Capturing peak flows approximately 1 year in four by dedicating around 200 km2 of land to groundwater recharge would reduce the magnitude of flooding and socio-economic impacts and generate around USD 250 M/year in export earnings for smallholder rainfed farmers through dry season cash cropping without unduly compromising the demands of existing water users. It is proposed that farmers in upstream riparian zones be co-opted as flood harvesters and thus contribute to improved floodwater management through simple water management technologies that enable agricultural lands to be put to higher productive use. Local-scale site suitability and technical performance assessments along with revised governance structures would be required. It is expected that such an approach would also be applicable to other coastal-discharging basins in Thailand and potentially throughout the Asia region.

United States Temperature and Precipitation Extremes: Phenomenology, Large-Scale Organization, Physical Mechanisms and Model Representation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Black, R. X.

2017-12-01

We summarize results from a project focusing on regional temperature and precipitation extremes over the continental United States. Our project introduces a new framework for evaluating these extremes emphasizing their (a) large-scale organization, (b) underlying physical sources (including remote-excitation and scale-interaction) and (c) representation in climate models. Results to be reported include the synoptic-dynamic behavior, seasonality and secular variability of cold waves, dry spells and heavy rainfall events in the observational record. We also study how the characteristics of such extremes are systematically related to Northern Hemisphere planetary wave structures and thus planetary- and hemispheric-scale forcing (e.g., those associated with major El Nino events and Arctic sea ice change). The underlying physics of event onset are diagnostically quantified for different categories of events. Finally, the representation of these extremes in historical coupled climate model simulations is studied and the origins of model biases are traced using new metrics designed to assess the large-scale atmospheric forcing of local extremes.

Simulated Extreme Prepitation Indices over Northeast Brasil in Current Climate and Future Scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wender Santiago Marinho, Marcos; Araújo Costa, Alexandre; Cassain Sales, Domingo; Oliveira Guimarães, Sullyandro; Mariano da Silva, Emerson; das Chagas Vasconcelos Júnior, Francisco

2013-04-01

In this study, we analyzed extreme precipitation indices, for present and future modeled climates over Northeast of Brazil (NEB), from CORDEX simulations over the domain of Tropical Americas. The period for the model validation was from 1989-2007, using data from the European Center (ECWMF) Reanalysis, ERA-INTERIM, as input to drive the regional model (RAMS 6.0). Reanalysis data were assimilated via both lateral boundaries and the entire domain (a much weaker "central nudging"). Six indices of extreme precipitation were calculated over NEB: the average number of days above 10, 20 and 30 mm in one year (R10, R20, R30), the number of consecutive dry days (CDD), the number of consecutive wet days (CWD) and the maximum rainfall in five consecutive days (RX5). Those indices were compared against two independent databases: MERRA (Modern Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications) and TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission). After validation, climate simulations were performed for the present climate (1985-2005) and short-term (2015-2035), mid-term (2045-2065) and long-term (2079 to 2099) future climates for two scenarios: RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, nesting RAMS into HadGEM2-ES global model (a participant of CMIP5). Along with the indices, we also calculated Probability Distribution Functions (PDFs) to study the behavior of daily precipitation in the present and by the end of the 21st century (2079 to 2099) to assess possible changes under RCPs 4.5 and 8.5. The regional model is capable of representing relatively well the extreme precipitation indices for current climate, but there is some difficulties in performing a proper validation since the observed databases disagree significantly. Future projections show significant changes in most extreme indices. Rnn generally tend to increase, especially under RCP8.5. More significant changes are projected for the long-term period, under RCP8.5, which shows a pronounced R30 enhancement over northern states. CDD tends to decrease over most of NEB in the short but this trend is reverted toward the end of the century in both scenarios with a significant increase in the duration of the dry season over Northwestern and Eastern NEB (exceeding 50 days over certain areas), whereas projected CWD changes are smaller. Rx5 shows a general increasing trend especially in the long term period,under RCP8.5.

Spatio-temporal variability and trends of precipitation and extreme rainfall events in Ethiopia in 1980-2010

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gummadi, Sridhar; Rao, K. P. C.; Seid, Jemal; Legesse, Gizachew; Kadiyala, M. D. M.; Takele, Robel; Amede, Tilahun; Whitbread, Anthony

2017-12-01

This article summarizes the results from an analysis conducted to investigate the spatio-temporal variability and trends in the rainfall over Ethiopia over a period of 31 years from 1980 to 2010. The data is mostly observed station data supplemented by bias-corrected AgMERRA climate data. Changes in annual and Belg (March-May) and Kiremt (June to September) season rainfalls and rainy days have been analysed over the entire Ethiopia. Rainfall is characterized by high temporal variability with coefficient of variation (CV, %) varying from 9 to 30% in the annual, 9 to 69% during the Kiremt season and 15-55% during the Belg season rainfall amounts. Rainfall variability increased disproportionately as the amount of rainfall declined from 700 to 100 mm or less. No significant trend was observed in the annual rainfall amounts over the country, but increasing and decreasing trends were observed in the seasonal rainfall amounts in some areas. A declining trend is also observed in the number of rainy days especially in Oromia, Benishangul-Gumuz and Gambella regions. Trends in seasonal rainfall indicated a general decline in the Belg season and an increase in the Kiremt season rainfall amounts. The increase in rainfall during the main Kiremt season along with the decrease in the number of rainy days leads to an increase in extreme rainfall events over Ethiopia. The trends in the 95th-percentile rainfall events illustrate that the annual extreme rainfall events are increasing over the eastern and south-western parts of Ethiopia covering Oromia and Benishangul-Gumuz regions. During the Belg season, extreme rainfall events are mostly observed over central Ethiopia extending towards the southern part of the country while during the Kiremt season, they are observed over parts of Oromia, (covering Borena, Guji, Bali, west Harerge and east Harerge), Somali, Gambella, southern Tigray and Afar regions. Changes in the intensity of extreme rainfall events are mostly observed over south-eastern parts of Ethiopia extending to the south-west covering Somali and Oromia regions. Similar trends are also observed in the greatest 3-, 5- and 10-day rainfall amounts. Changes in the consecutive dry and wet days showed that consecutive wet days during Belg and Kiremt seasons decreased significantly in many areas in Ethiopia while consecutive dry days increased. The consistency in the trends over large spatial areas confirms the robustness of the trends and serves as a basis for understanding the projected changes in the climate. These results were discussed in relation to their significance to agriculture.

Preservation of hay with propionic acid

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Most hay producers are quite familiar with the problems associated with baling moist hays. Normally, these problems include spontaneous heating, increased evidence of mold, losses of dry matter (DM) during storage, poorer nutritive value, and (in extreme cases) spontaneous combustion. Numerous fact...

Observed Trends in Indices of Daily Precipitation and Temperature Extremes in Rio de Janeiro State (brazil)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Silva, W. L.; Dereczynski, C. P.; Cavalcanti, I. F.

2013-05-01

One of the main concerns of contemporary society regarding prevailing climate change is related to possible changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme events. Strong heat and cold waves, droughts, severe floods, and other climatic extremes have been of great interest to researchers because of its huge impact on the environment and population, causing high monetary damages and, in some cases, loss of life. The frequency and intensity of extreme events associated with precipitation and air temperature have been increased in several regions of the planet in recent years. These changes produce serious impacts on human activities such as agriculture, health, urban planning and development and management of water resources. In this paper, we analyze the trends in indices of climatic extremes related to daily precipitation and maximum and minimum temperatures at 22 meteorological stations of the National Institute of Meteorology (INMET) in Rio de Janeiro State (Brazil) in the last 50 years. The present trends are evaluated using the software RClimdex (Canadian Meteorological Service) and are also subjected to statistical tests. Preliminary results indicate that periods of drought are getting longer in Rio de Janeiro State, except in the North/Northwest area. In "Vale do Paraíba", "Região Serrana" and "Região dos Lagos" the increase of consecutive dry days is statistically significant. However, we also detected an increase in the total annual rainfall all over the State (taxes varying from +2 to +8 mm/year), which are statistically significant at "Região Serrana". Moreover, the intensity of heavy rainfall is also growing in most of Rio de Janeiro, except in "Costa Verde". The trends of heavy rainfall indices show significant increase in the "Metropolitan Region" and in "Região Serrana", factor that increases the vulnerability to natural disasters in these areas. With respect to temperature, it is found that the frequency of hot (cold) days and nights is increasing (reducing) with significance in almost all regions. "Região dos Lagos" has the most significant trends of increasing in temperature, thereby influencing the local production of salt and alkaline minerals in medium and long term. The goal of this research is, through the analysis of results, support studies of vulnerability and adaptation to climate change scenarios in Rio de Janeiro State.

Extreme Hydrological Changes in the Western United States Drive Reductions in Water Supply by Mid Century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pagan, Brianna; Ashfaq, Moetasim; Rastogi, Deeksha; Kao, Shih-Chieh; Naz, Bibi; Mei, Rui; Kendall, Donald; Pal, Jeremy

2016-04-01

The Western United States has a greater vulnerability to climate change impacts on water security due to a reliance on snowmelt driven imported water. The State of California, which is the most populous and agriculturally productive in the United States, depends on an extensive artificial water storage and conveyance system primarily for irrigated agriculture, municipal and industrial supply and hydropower generation. This study provides an integrated approach to assessing climate change impacts on the hydrologic cycle and hydrologic extremes for all water supplies to Southern California including the San-Joaquin River, Tulare Lake, Sacramento River, Owens Valley, Mono Lake, and Colorado River basins. A 10-member ensemble of coupled global climate models is dynamically downscaled forcing a regional and hydrological model resulting in a high-resolution 4-km output for the region. Greenhouse gas concentrations are prescribed according to historical values for the present-day (1965-2005) and the IPCC Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 for the near to mid term future (2010-2050). While precipitation is projected to remain the same or slightly increase, rising temperatures result in a shift in precipitation type towards more rainfall, reducing cold season snowpack and earlier snowmelt. Associated with these hydrological changes are substantial increases in both dry and flood event frequency and intensity, which are evaluated by using the Generalized Extreme Value distribution, Standardized Precipitation Index and ratio of daily precipitation to annual precipitation. Daily annual maximum runoff and precipitation event events significantly increase in intensity and frequency. Return periods change such that extreme events in the future become much more common by mid-century. The largest changes occur in the Colorado River where the daily annual maximum runoff 100-year event, for example, becomes approximately ten times more likely and twice as likely in the other basins. Volumes for annual cumulative maximum runoff increase and in contrast decrease for annual cumulative minimum runoff. Intuitively, increased frequency of years with below historical average runoff put further strain on water supply. However, the escalating likelihood of runoff occurring earlier in the year and in significantly higher amounts poses a substantial flood control risk requiring the release of water from reservoirs, also potentially decreasing water availability. Significant reductions in snowpack and increases in extreme runoff necessitate additional multiyear storage solutions for urban and agricultural regions in the Western United States.

The Relationships Between the Trends of Mean and Extreme Precipitation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zhou, Yaping; Lau, William K.-M.

2017-01-01

This study provides a better understanding of the relationships between the trends of mean and extreme precipitation in two observed precipitation data sets: the Climate Prediction Center Unified daily precipitation data set and the Global Precipitation Climatology Program (GPCP) pentad data set. The study employs three kinds of definitions of extreme precipitation: (1) percentile, (2) standard deviation and (3) generalize extreme value (GEV) distribution analysis for extreme events based on local statistics. Relationship between trends in the mean and extreme precipitation is identified with a novel metric, i.e. area aggregated matching ratio (AAMR) computed on regional and global scales. Generally, more (less) extreme events are likely to occur in regions with a positive (negative) mean trend. The match between the mean and extreme trends deteriorates for increasingly heavy precipitation events. The AAMR is higher in regions with negative mean trends than in regions with positive mean trends, suggesting a higher likelihood of severe dry events, compared with heavy rain events in a warming climate. AAMR is found to be higher in tropics and oceans than in the extratropics and land regions, reflecting a higher degree of randomness and more important dynamical rather than thermodynamical contributions of extreme events in the latter regions.

Possible roles of vacuolar H+-ATPase and mitochondrial function in tolerance to air-drying stress revealed by genome-wide screening of Saccharomyces cerevisiae deletion strains.

PubMed

Shima, Jun; Ando, Akira; Takagi, Hiroshi

2008-03-01

Yeasts used in bread making are exposed to air-drying stress during dried yeast production processes. To clarify the genes required for air-drying tolerance, we performed genome-wide screening using the complete deletion strain collection of diploid Saccharomyces cerevisiae. The screening identified 278 gene deletions responsible for air-drying sensitivity. These genes were classified based on their cellular function and on the localization of their gene products. The results showed that the genes required for air-drying tolerance were frequently involved in mitochondrial functions and in connection with vacuolar H(+)-ATPase, which plays a role in vacuolar acidification. To determine the role of vacuolar acidification in air-drying stress tolerance, we monitored intracellular pH. The results showed that intracellular acidification was induced during air-drying and that this acidification was amplified in a deletion mutant of the VMA2 gene encoding a component of vacuolar H(+)-ATPase, suggesting that vacuolar H(+)-ATPase helps maintain intracellular pH homeostasis, which is affected by air-drying stress. To determine the effects of air-drying stress on mitochondria, we analysed the mitochondrial membrane potential under air-drying stress conditions using MitoTracker. The results showed that mitochondria were extremely sensitive to air-drying stress, suggesting that a mitochondrial function is required for tolerance to air-drying stress. We also analysed the correlation between oxidative-stress sensitivity and air-drying-stress sensitivity. The results suggested that oxidative stress is a critical determinant of sensitivity to air-drying stress, although ROS-scavenging systems are not necessary for air-drying stress tolerance. (c) 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Ectodermal dysplasia associated with sickle cell disease.

PubMed

Volpato, Luiz Evaristo Ricci; Volpato, Maria Carmen Palma Faria; de Carvalhosa, Artur Aburad; Palma, Vinicius Canavarros; Borges, Alvaro Henrique

2014-01-01

Ectodermal dysplasia and sickle cell anaemia are inherited disorders that affect, respectively, the tissues derived from the embryonic ectoderm and the production of erythrocytes by the bone marrow. The simultaneous occurrence of both disorders is extremely rare. This is a case of both ectodermal dysplasia and sickle cell anaemia reported in a 6-year-old. The patient had been diagnosed with sickle cell anaemia for only six months when he sought treatment presenting with the following: hypotrichosis, dry skin, periocular hyperpigmentation, protruding lips, hypodontia, and morphologically altered teeth. The clinical features combined with his medical history led to the diagnosis of ectodermal dysplasia. Dentists should be prepared to recognise patterns that escape normality to aid in the diagnosis of systemic changes, even in patients with other previous diagnoses.

Corrosion resistance of lithium/iodine batteries fabricated in an extremely dry environment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Brown, W.R.; Holmes, C.F.; Stinebring, R.C.

1981-10-01

Early lithium/iodine pacemaker batteries employed considerable amounts of inert plastic materials to encase the active ingredients inside the stainless steel case. Several years ago the Wilson Greatbatch Ltd. (WGL) Model 755 cell was introduced and represented a significant change in lithium/iodine battery construction. In this design (1) the iodinepolyvinylpyridine (PVP) depolarizer material was placed in direct contact with the 304L stainless steel case and much of the inert material was eliminated. This change resulted in obtaining substantially more depolarizer in the battery thereby greatly increasing the electrical capacity for the same cell volume. A study was instituted to evaluate possiblemore » corrosion effects between the iodine in the depolarizer and the stainless steel case.« less

Future irrigation expansion outweigh groundwater recharge gains from climate change in semi-arid India.

PubMed

Sishodia, Rajendra P; Shukla, Sanjay; Wani, Suhas P; Graham, Wendy D; Jones, James W

2018-09-01

Simultaneous effects of future climate and irrigation intensification on surface and groundwater systems are not well understood. Efforts are needed to understand the future groundwater availability and associated surface flows under business-as-usual management to formulate policy changes to improve water sustainability. We combine measurements with integrated modeling (MIKE SHE/MIKE11) to evaluate the effects of future climate (2040-2069), with and without irrigation expansion, on water levels and flows in an agricultural watershed in low-storage crystalline aquifer region of south India. Demand and supply management changes, including improved efficiency of irrigation water as well as energy uses, were evaluated. Increased future rainfall (7-43%, from 5 Global Climate Models) with no further expansion of irrigation wells increased the groundwater recharge (10-55%); however, most of the recharge moved out of watershed as increased baseflow (17-154%) with a small increase in net recharge (+0.2mm/year). When increased rainfall was considered with projected increase in irrigation withdrawals, both hydrologic extremes of well drying and flooding were predicted. A 100-year flow event was predicted to be a 5-year event in the future. If irrigation expansion follows the historical trends, earlier and more frequent well drying, a source of farmers' distress in India, was predicted to worsen in the future despite the recharge gains from increased rainfall. Storage and use of excess flows, improved irrigation efficiency with flood to drip conversion in 25% of irrigated area, and reduced energy subsidy (free electricity for 3.5h compared to 7h/day; $1 billion savings) provided sufficient water savings to support future expansion in irrigated areas while mitigating well drying as well as flooding. Reductions in energy subsidy to fund the implementation of economically desirable (high benefit-cost ratio) demand (drip irrigation) and supply (water capture and storage) management was recommended to achieve a sustainable food-water-energy nexus in semi-arid regions. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Warmest extreme year in U.S. history alters thermal requirements for tree phenology.

PubMed

Carter, Jacob M; Orive, Maria E; Gerhart, Laci M; Stern, Jennifer H; Marchin, Renée M; Nagel, Joane; Ward, Joy K

2017-04-01

The frequency of extreme warm years is increasing across the majority of the planet. Shifts in plant phenology in response to extreme years can influence plant survival, productivity, and synchrony with pollinators/herbivores. Despite extensive work on plant phenological responses to climate change, little is known about responses to extreme warm years, particularly at the intraspecific level. Here we investigate 43 populations of white ash trees (Fraxinus americana) from throughout the species range that were all grown in a common garden. We compared the timing of leaf emergence during the warmest year in U.S. history (2012) with relatively non-extreme years. We show that (a) leaf emergence among white ash populations was accelerated by 21 days on average during the extreme warm year of 2012 relative to non-extreme years; (b) rank order for the timing of leaf emergence was maintained among populations across extreme and non-extreme years, with southern populations emerging earlier than northern populations; (c) greater amounts of warming units accumulated prior to leaf emergence during the extreme warm year relative to non-extreme years, and this constrained the potential for even earlier leaf emergence by an average of 9 days among populations; and (d) the extreme warm year reduced the reliability of a relevant phenological model for white ash by producing a consistent bias toward earlier predicted leaf emergence relative to observations. These results demonstrate a critical need to better understand how extreme warm years will impact tree phenology, particularly at the intraspecific level.

500-year April-September droughts in the Czech Lands based on documentary data and instrumental records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Řezníčková, Ladislava; Brázdil, Rudolf; Trnka, Miroslav; Dobrovolný, Petr; Kotyza, Oldřich; Štěpánek, Petr; Zahradníček, Pavel; Valášek, Hubert

2013-04-01

This paper analyses temporal and spatial variability of April-September (the vegetation period) droughts in the Czech Lands over the last 500 years. The study is based on different types of documentary data (e.g. chronicles, newspapers, economic sources, weather diaries) covering the pre-instrumental period AD 1501-1804 and on the systematic instrumental meteorological measurements afterwards. Historical-climatological database of the Czech Lands is used for the study of the duration and intensity of drought episodes based on the series of precipitation indices created from documentary data in a 7-degree scale from -3 (extremely dry) to +3 (extremely wet). For the instrumental period of 1805-2012 Palmer's Z-index and PDSI series for mean Czech temperature and precipitation series are used (they were calculated from homogeneous series of 10 and 14 stations respectively). Consequently the 500-year chronology of drought episodes derived from documentary and instrumental data is compiled and the temporal (frequency, seasonality and intensity) and spatial variability of droughts in the Czech Lands from AD 1501 is analysed. The most outstanding drought events are selected and analysed in detail also with respect to their human impacts. The results obtained for the Czech Lands are compared with drought episodes known in Central Europe from other studies and are evaluated with respect to climate variability in Central Europe during the last 500 years (this research is supported by projects InterDrought no. CZ.1.07/2.3.00/20.0248, and GA CR no. P209/11/0956).

The commercial clothes dryer market: Market structure and opportunities for microwave dryers. Final report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Leon, G.; McNulty, S.

1995-08-01

EPRI`s prototype commercial microwave clothes dryer offers significant benefits over conventional dryers, including faster drying at lower temperatures, less damage to fabrics, and possible drying of some dry-clean-only fabrics. With the technical challenges overcome, EPRI sponsored the microwave dryer project to gauge the likely market response to this new drying technology and to determine the best marketing approach for commercial microwave dryers. This market assessment provides information about the dryer features required in various commercial market segments as well as guidance in choosing the segments and subsegments most likely to accept microwave clothes dryers. At present, the market segments mostmore » amenable to microwave dryer technology include the coin-operated, medium, and large dryer owners. Promising subsegments include the apartment coin-operated market and businesses that have capacity constraints, low fuel cost sensitivity, or extremely low dryer usage.« less

Microbial ecology of extreme environments: Antarctic dry valley yeasts and growth in substrate limited habitats

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vishniac, H. S.

1981-01-01

The multiple stresses temperature, moisture, and for chemoheterotrophs, sources of carbon and energy of the Dry Valley Antarctica soils allow at best depauperate communities, low in species diversity and population density. The nature of community structure, the operation of biogeochemical cycles, the evolution and mechanisms of adaptation to this habitat are of interest in informing speculations upon life on other planets as well as in modeling the limits of gene life. Yeasts of the Cryptococcus vishniacil complex (Basidiobiastomycetes) are investigated, as the only known indigenes of the most hostile, lichen free, parts of the Dry Valleys. Methods were developed for isolating these yeasts (methods which do not exclude the recovery of other microbiota). The definition of the complex was refined and the importance of nitrogen sources was established as well as substrate competition in fitness to the Dry Valley habitats.

The ICDP Dead Sea deep drill cores: records of climate change and tectonics in the Levant

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goldstein, S. L.; Stein, M.; Ben-Avraham, Z.; Agnon, A.; Ariztegui, D.; Brauer, A.; Haug, G. H.; Ito, E.; Kitagawa, H.; Torfstein, A.

2012-12-01

The Dead Sea drainage basin sits at the boundary of the Mediterranean and the Saharan climate zones, and the basin is formed by the Dead Sea transform fault. The ICDP-funded Dead Sea Deep Drilling Project recovered the longest and most complete paleo-environmental and paleo-seismic record in the Middle East, drilling holes of ~450 and ~350 meters in deep (~300 m below the lake level) and shallow sites (~3 m), respectively, and. The sediments record the evolving environmental conditions (e.g. droughts, rains, floods, dust-storms), as well as tectonics (earthquake layers). The core can be dated using 14C on organic materials, U-Th on inorganic aragonite, stable isotopes, and layer counting. They were opened, described, and XRF-scanned during June to November 2011, the first sampling party took place in July 2012, and study is now underway. Some important conclusions can already be drawn. The stratigraphy reflects the climate conditions. During wet climate intervals the lithology is typically varve-like laminated aragonite and detritus (aad), reflecting summer and winter seasons, respectively, and sequences of mud. Gypsum layers reflect more arid climate, and salt (halite) indicates extreme aridity. The Dead Sea expands during glacials, and the portion of the core that corresponds to the last glacial Lisan Formation above the shoreline is easily recognized in the core based on the common lithological sequence, and this allows us to infer a broad scale age model. Interglacials show all the lithologic facies (aad, mud, gypsum, salt), reflecting extreme climate variability, while glacials contain the aad, mud, and gypsum but lack salt layers. Thus we estimate that the deep site hole extends into MIS 7 (to ~200,000 years). Thin (up to several cm thick) seismic layers occur throughout the core, but thick (up to several meters) landslide deposits only occur during glacial intervals. The most dramatic discovery is evidence of an extreme dry interval during MIS 5 at the deep site. There is a ~40 cm thick interval of partly rounded pebbles in the core at ~235 m below the lake floor. It is the only clean pebbly unit in the core, and resembles a beach deposit. Below the layer there is ~45 meters of mainly salt. These observations indicate a severe dry interval during MIS 5. This observation has implications for the Middle East today, where the Dead Sea level is dropping at rates >1m/year, as all the countries in the area are using all the runoff. GCM models indicate a more arid future in the region. The core shows that the runoff nearly stopped during the last interglacial without human intervention. Dating is underway to constrain the timing of the extreme drydown.

Evaluating industrial drying of cellulosic feedstock for bioenergy: A systems approach

DOE PAGES

Sokhansanj, Shahab; Webb, Erin

2016-01-21

Here, a large portion of herbaceous and woody biomass must be dried following harvest. Natural field drying is possible if the weather cooperates. Mechanical drying is a certain way of reducing the moisture content of biomass. This paper presents an engineering analysis applied to drying of 10 Mg h –1 (exit mass flow) of biomass with an initial moisture content ranging from 25% to 70% (wet mass basis) down to 10% exit moisture content. The requirement for hog fuel to supply heat to the dryer increases from 0.5 dry Mg to 3.8 dry Mg h –1 with the increased initialmore » moisture of biomass. The capital cost for the entire drying system including equipment for biomass size reduction, pollution control, dryer, and biomass combustor sums up to more than 4.7 million dollars. The operating cost (electricity, labor, repair, and maintenance) minus fuel cost for the dryer alone amount to 4.05 Mg –1 of dried biomass. For 50% moisture content biomass, the cost of fuel to heat the drying air is 7.41 dollars/ dry ton of biomass for a total 11.46 dollars per dry ton at 10% moisture content. The fuel cost ranges from a low of 2.21 dollars to a high of 18.54 dollars for a biomass at an initial moisture content of 25% to 75%, respectively. This wide range in fuel cost indicates the extreme sensitivity of the drying cost to initial moisture content of biomass and to ambient air humidity and temperature and highlights the significance of field drying for a cost effective drying operation.« less

Banks of lights dry tiles on Atlantis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2001-01-01

KENNEDY SPACE CENTER, Fla. -- In the Orbiter Processing Facility, a worker points to some of the tiles on orbiter Atlantis that are being dried by clusters of 200-300 watt heat lamps. Significant rainstorms during the orbiter'''s turnaround for a ferry flight home from Edwards Air Force Base, Calif., caused a moisture problem. The tiles are part of the Thermal Protection System used on orbiters for extreme temperatures encountered during landing. Engineers are evaluating the current procedures to assure the tiles are in a safe and flight-ready condition.

Host plant development, water level and water parameters shape Phragmites australis-associated oomycete communities and determine reed pathogen dynamics in a large lake.

PubMed

Wielgoss, Anna; Nechwatal, Jan; Bogs, Carolin; Mendgen, Kurt

2009-08-01

In a 3-year-study, we analysed the population dynamics of the reed pathogen Pythium phragmitis and other reed-associated oomycetes colonizing fresh and dried reed leaves in the littoral zone of a large lake. Oomycete communities derived from internal transcribed spacer clone libraries were clearly differentiated according to substrate and seasonal influences. In fresh leaves, diverse communities consisting of P. phragmitis and other reed-associated pathogens were generally dominant. Pythium phragmitis populations peaked in spring with the emergence of young reed shoots, and in autumn after extreme flooding events. In summer it decreased with falling water levels, changing water chemistry and rising temperatures. Another Pythium species was also highly abundant in fresh leaves throughout the year and might represent a new, as-yet uncultured reed pathogen. In dried leaves, reed pathogens were rarely detected, whereas saprophytic species occurred abundantly during all seasons. Saprophyte communities were less diverse, less temperature sensitive and independent of reed development. In general, our results provide evidence for the occurrence of highly specialized sets of reed-associated oomycetes in a natural reed ecosystem. Quantitative analyses (clone abundances and quantitative real-time PCR) revealed that the reed pathogen P. phragmitis is particularly affected by changing water levels, water chemistry and the stage of reed development.

Drought analysis in the Tons River Basin, India during 1969-2008

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meshram, Sarita Gajbhiye; Gautam, Randhir; Kahya, Ercan

2018-05-01

The primary focus of this study is the analysis of droughts in the Tons River Basin during the period 1969-2008. Precipitation data observed at four gauging stations are used to identify drought over the study area. The event of drought is derived from the standardized precipitation index (SPI) on a 3-month scale. Our results indicated that severe drought occurred in the Allahabad, Rewa, and Satna stations in the years 1973 and 1979. The droughts in this region had occurred mainly due to erratic behavior in monsoons, especially due to long breaks between monsoons. During the drought years, the deficiency of the annual rainfall in the analysis of annual rainfall departure had varied from -26% in 1976 to -60% in 1973 at Allahabad station in the basin. The maximum deficiency of annual and seasonal rainfall recorded in the basin is 60%. The maximum seasonal rainfall departure observed in the basin is in the order of -60% at Allahabad station in 1973, while maximum annual rainfall departure had been recorded as -60% during 1979 at the Satna station. Extreme dry events ( z score <-2) were detected during July, August, and September. Moreover, severe dry events were observed in August, September, and October. The drought conditions in the Tons River Basin are dominantly driven by total rainfall throughout the period between June and November.

Updated precipitation reconstruction (AD 1482-2012) for Huashan, north-central China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Feng; Zhang, Ruibo; Wang, Huiqin; Qin, Li; Yuan, Yujiang

2016-02-01

We developed a tree-ring width chronology from pine trees ( Pinus tabulaeformis and Pinus armandii) stand near the peaks of Huashan, Shaanxi, north-central China. Growth-climate response analyses showed that the radial growth of pine trees is mainly influenced by April-June precipitation. A model to reconstruct precipitation based on tree widths was constructed, accounting for 55 % of the instrumental variance during the period 1953-2012. Spatial correlation analyses between the reconstruction and observed gridded precipitation data shows that the seasonal precipitation reconstruction captures regional climatic variations over north China. Compared with the historical archives and other tree-ring records in north China, many large-scale drought events, linked to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), were found. Many of these events have had profound impacts on the people of north China over the past several centuries. Composite maps of sea surface temperatures and 500 hPa geopotential heights for selected extremely dry and wet years in Huashan show characteristics similar to those related to the ENSO patterns, particularly with regard to ocean and atmospheric conditions in the equatorial and north Pacific. Our 531-year precipitation reconstruction for Huashan provides a long-term perspective on current and 20th century wet and dry events in north China, and is useful to guide expectations of future variability, and helps us to address climate change.

Farming and fishing in the wake of El Nino

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tibbetts, J.

How does the periodic warming of the waters of the central Pacific relate to global climate change and food production? In Queensland, Australia, savvy farmers keep a sharp eye on signs of El Nino, which usually brings drought that withers the state`s winter wheat crop. Returning every four years on average and usually lasting approximately a year, El Nino is an unusual warming in the central Pacific that builds storms and disrupts wind patterns, turning weather upside down in far-removed regions. But El Nino took scientists by surprise when it persisted from 1991 to 1995. This was the first timemore » that El Nino had lasted for more than three years since monitoring began in the 1870s. And true to form, El Nino of 1991-1995 brought extreme drought to Queensland, in north-eastern Australia, drying out farmland and costing the state economy approximately $1 billion (Australian) a year. The drought, for example, dropped rainfall levels to all-time lows in Toowoomba, one of the state`s prime cereal-growing regions.« less

Characteristics of pristine volcanic materials: Beneficial and harmful effects and their management for restoration of agroecosystem.

PubMed

Anda, Markus; Suparto; Sukarman

2016-02-01

Eruption of Sinabung volcano in Indonesia began again in 2010 after resting for 1200 years. The volcano is daily emitting ash and pyroclastic materials since September 2013 to the present, damaging agroecosystems and costing for management restoration. The objective of the study was to assess properties and impacts of pristine volcanic material depositions on soil properties and to provide management options for restoring the affected agroecosytem. Land satellite imagery was used for field studies to observe the distribution, thickness and properties of ashfall deposition. The pristine ashfall deposits and the underlying soils were sampled for mineralogical, soluble salt, chemical, physical and toxic compound analyses. Results showed that uneven distribution of rainfall at the time of violent eruption caused the areas receiving mud ashfall developed surface encrustation, which was not occur in areas receiving dry ashfall. Ashfall damaged the agroecosytem by burning vegetation, forming surface crusts, and creating soil acidity and toxicity. X-ray diffraction (XRD) and scanning electron microscope (SEM) analyses of encrustated layer indicated the presence of gypsum and jarosite minerals. Gypsum likely acted as a cementing agent in the formation of the encrustation layer with extremely low pH (2.9) and extremely high concentrations of Al, Ca and S. Encrustation is responsible for limited water infiltration and root penetration, while the extremely high concentration of Al is responsible for crop toxicity. Mud ashfall and dry ashfall deposits also greatly changed the underlying soil properties by decreasing soil pH and cation exchange capacity and by increasing exchangeable Ca, Al, and S availability. Despite damaging vegetation in the short-term, the volcanic ashfall enriched the soil in the longer term by adding nutrients like Ca, Mg, K, Na, P, Si and S. Suggested management practices to help restore the agroecosystem after volcanic eruptions include: (i) the application of lime to increase soil pH, increase cation exchange capacity and decrease Al and S toxicities, (ii) the selection of crops which are tolerant to low pH and high concentrations of soluble Al and S, (iii) physically disrupting the hard surface crusts that form on some soils (if <2 cm thick) to allow water infiltration and root penetration, (iv) application of N and K fertilizers, and (v) incorporation of dry ashfall into the soil (if <5 cm thick) to exploit the newly deposited nutrients. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Response of African humid tropical forests to recent rainfall anomalies

PubMed Central

Asefi-Najafabady, Salvi; Saatchi, Sassan

2013-01-01

During the last decade, strong negative rainfall anomalies resulting from increased sea surface temperature in the tropical Atlantic have caused extensive droughts in rainforests of western Amazonia, exerting persistent effects on the forest canopy. In contrast, there have been no significant impacts on rainforests of West and Central Africa during the same period, despite large-scale droughts and rainfall anomalies during the same period. Using a combination of rainfall observations from meteorological stations from the Climate Research Unit (CRU; 1950–2009) and satellite observations of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM; 1998–2010), we show that West and Central Africa experienced strong negative water deficit (WD) anomalies over the last decade, particularly in 2005, 2006 and 2007. These anomalies were a continuation of an increasing drying trend in the region that started in the 1970s. We monitored the response of forests to extreme rainfall anomalies of the past decade by analysing the microwave scatterometer data from QuickSCAT (1999–2009) sensitive to variations in canopy water content and structure. Unlike in Amazonia, we found no significant impacts of extreme WD events on forests of Central Africa, suggesting potential adaptability of these forests to short-term severe droughts. Only forests near the savanna boundary in West Africa and in fragmented landscapes of the northern Congo Basin responded to extreme droughts with widespread canopy disturbance that lasted only during the period of WD. Time-series analyses of CRU and TRMM data show most regions in Central and West Africa experience seasonal or decadal extreme WDs (less than −600 mm). We hypothesize that the long-term historical extreme WDs with gradual drying trends in the 1970s have increased the adaptability of humid tropical forests in Africa to droughts. PMID:23878335

Response of African humid tropical forests to recent rainfall anomalies.

PubMed

Asefi-Najafabady, Salvi; Saatchi, Sassan

2013-01-01

During the last decade, strong negative rainfall anomalies resulting from increased sea surface temperature in the tropical Atlantic have caused extensive droughts in rainforests of western Amazonia, exerting persistent effects on the forest canopy. In contrast, there have been no significant impacts on rainforests of West and Central Africa during the same period, despite large-scale droughts and rainfall anomalies during the same period. Using a combination of rainfall observations from meteorological stations from the Climate Research Unit (CRU; 1950-2009) and satellite observations of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM; 1998-2010), we show that West and Central Africa experienced strong negative water deficit (WD) anomalies over the last decade, particularly in 2005, 2006 and 2007. These anomalies were a continuation of an increasing drying trend in the region that started in the 1970s. We monitored the response of forests to extreme rainfall anomalies of the past decade by analysing the microwave scatterometer data from QuickSCAT (1999-2009) sensitive to variations in canopy water content and structure. Unlike in Amazonia, we found no significant impacts of extreme WD events on forests of Central Africa, suggesting potential adaptability of these forests to short-term severe droughts. Only forests near the savanna boundary in West Africa and in fragmented landscapes of the northern Congo Basin responded to extreme droughts with widespread canopy disturbance that lasted only during the period of WD. Time-series analyses of CRU and TRMM data show most regions in Central and West Africa experience seasonal or decadal extreme WDs (less than -600 mm). We hypothesize that the long-term historical extreme WDs with gradual drying trends in the 1970s have increased the adaptability of humid tropical forests in Africa to droughts.

Observed variability of summer precipitation pattern and extreme events in East China associated with variations of the East Asian summer monsoon: VARIABILITY OF SUMMER PRECIPITATION AND EXTREME EVENT IN EAST CHINA

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, Lei; Qian, Yun; Zhang, Yaocun

This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of interannual and interdecadal variations of summer precipitation and precipitation-related extreme events in China associated with variations of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) from 1979-2012. A high-quality daily precipitation dataset covering 2287 weather stations in China is analyzed. Based on the precipitation pattern analysis using empirical orthogonal functions, three sub-periods of 1979-1992 (period I), 1993-1999 (period II) and 2000-2012 (period III) are identified to be representative of the precipitation variability. Similar significant variability of the extreme precipitation indices is found across four sub-regions in eastern China. The spatial patterns of summer mean precipitation,more » the number of days with daily rainfall exceeding 95th percentile precipitation (R95p) and the maximum number of consecutive wet days (CWD) anomalies are consistent, but opposite to that of maximum consecutive dry days (CDD) anomalies during the three sub-periods. However, the spatial patterns of hydroclimatic intensity (HY-INT) are notably different from that of the other three extreme indices, but highly correlated to the dry events. The changes of precipitation anomaly patterns are accompanied by the change of the EASM regime and the abrupt shift of the position of the west Pacific subtropical high around 1992/1993 and 1999/2000, respectively, which influence the moisture transport that contributes most to the precipitation anomalies. Lastly, the EASM intensity is linked to sea surface temperature anomaly over the tropical Indian and Pacific Ocean that influences deep convection over the oceans.« less

Biodiversity increases the resistance of ecosystem productivity to climate extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Isbell, Forest; Craven, Dylan; Connolly, John; Loreau, Michel; Schmid, Bernhard; Beierkuhnlein, Carl; Bezemer, T. Martijn; Bonin, Catherine; Bruelheide, Helge; de Luca, Enrica; Ebeling, Anne; Griffin, John N.; Guo, Qinfeng; Hautier, Yann; Hector, Andy; Jentsch, Anke; Kreyling, Jürgen; Lanta, Vojtěch; Manning, Pete; Meyer, Sebastian T.; Mori, Akira S.; Naeem, Shahid; Niklaus, Pascal A.; Polley, H. Wayne; Reich, Peter B.; Roscher, Christiane; Seabloom, Eric W.; Smith, Melinda D.; Thakur, Madhav P.; Tilman, David; Tracy, Benjamin F.; van der Putten, Wim H.; van Ruijven, Jasper; Weigelt, Alexandra; Weisser, Wolfgang W.; Wilsey, Brian; Eisenhauer, Nico

2015-10-01

It remains unclear whether biodiversity buffers ecosystems against climate extremes, which are becoming increasingly frequent worldwide. Early results suggested that the ecosystem productivity of diverse grassland plant communities was more resistant, changing less during drought, and more resilient, recovering more quickly after drought, than that of depauperate communities. However, subsequent experimental tests produced mixed results. Here we use data from 46 experiments that manipulated grassland plant diversity to test whether biodiversity provides resistance during and resilience after climate events. We show that biodiversity increased ecosystem resistance for a broad range of climate events, including wet or dry, moderate or extreme, and brief or prolonged events. Across all studies and climate events, the productivity of low-diversity communities with one or two species changed by approximately 50% during climate events, whereas that of high-diversity communities with 16-32 species was more resistant, changing by only approximately 25%. By a year after each climate event, ecosystem productivity had often fully recovered, or overshot, normal levels of productivity in both high- and low-diversity communities, leading to no detectable dependence of ecosystem resilience on biodiversity. Our results suggest that biodiversity mainly stabilizes ecosystem productivity, and productivity-dependent ecosystem services, by increasing resistance to climate events. Anthropogenic environmental changes that drive biodiversity loss thus seem likely to decrease ecosystem stability, and restoration of biodiversity to increase it, mainly by changing the resistance of ecosystem productivity to climate events.

Biodiversity increases the resistance of ecosystem productivity to climate extremes.

PubMed

Isbell, Forest; Craven, Dylan; Connolly, John; Loreau, Michel; Schmid, Bernhard; Beierkuhnlein, Carl; Bezemer, T Martijn; Bonin, Catherine; Bruelheide, Helge; de Luca, Enrica; Ebeling, Anne; Griffin, John N; Guo, Qinfeng; Hautier, Yann; Hector, Andy; Jentsch, Anke; Kreyling, Jürgen; Lanta, Vojtěch; Manning, Pete; Meyer, Sebastian T; Mori, Akira S; Naeem, Shahid; Niklaus, Pascal A; Polley, H Wayne; Reich, Peter B; Roscher, Christiane; Seabloom, Eric W; Smith, Melinda D; Thakur, Madhav P; Tilman, David; Tracy, Benjamin F; van der Putten, Wim H; van Ruijven, Jasper; Weigelt, Alexandra; Weisser, Wolfgang W; Wilsey, Brian; Eisenhauer, Nico

2015-10-22

It remains unclear whether biodiversity buffers ecosystems against climate extremes, which are becoming increasingly frequent worldwide. Early results suggested that the ecosystem productivity of diverse grassland plant communities was more resistant, changing less during drought, and more resilient, recovering more quickly after drought, than that of depauperate communities. However, subsequent experimental tests produced mixed results. Here we use data from 46 experiments that manipulated grassland plant diversity to test whether biodiversity provides resistance during and resilience after climate events. We show that biodiversity increased ecosystem resistance for a broad range of climate events, including wet or dry, moderate or extreme, and brief or prolonged events. Across all studies and climate events, the productivity of low-diversity communities with one or two species changed by approximately 50% during climate events, whereas that of high-diversity communities with 16-32 species was more resistant, changing by only approximately 25%. By a year after each climate event, ecosystem productivity had often fully recovered, or overshot, normal levels of productivity in both high- and low-diversity communities, leading to no detectable dependence of ecosystem resilience on biodiversity. Our results suggest that biodiversity mainly stabilizes ecosystem productivity, and productivity-dependent ecosystem services, by increasing resistance to climate events. Anthropogenic environmental changes that drive biodiversity loss thus seem likely to decrease ecosystem stability, and restoration of biodiversity to increase it, mainly by changing the resistance of ecosystem productivity to climate events.

Is extreme climate or moderate climate more conducive to longevity in China?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Yi; Rosenberg, Mark; Wang, Yingli

2018-02-01

Climate is closely related to human longevity. In China, there are many climate types. According to national population censuses from 1982 to 2000, most provinces with a high ratio of centenarians are located in western and northwestern China far from the sea; these areas are characterized by a dry, cold climate, very high altitude, very high daily temperature range, strong winds, and partial hypoxia. Meanwhile, provinces with a high ratio of nonagenarians from 1982 to 2000 are located in southern China near the sea. Previous studies have attributed the high ratio of centenarians in western and northwestern China to the extreme local climate. However, centenarians in these areas decreased greatly in 2010, whereas residents in southern China frequently reached 90 to 100 years old in 2010. This study aims to explain this strange phenomenon and find whether extreme climate in Tibetan plateau and northwestern China or moderate climate in southern China is more conducive to longevity. The study found that mortality rate in Tibetan plateau is much higher than southern China, then a population evolution experiment was proposed to compare longevity indicators between low mortality rate and high mortality rate and shows that longevity indicators will decrease in the near future and increase above their original levels after several decades when the mortality rate is decreased. Results of this study show individuals in northwestern China do not live as long as those in eastern and southern China. A moderate climate is more conducive to longevity than extreme climate in China. The longevity of a region should be judged by long-term longevity indicators.

Is extreme climate or moderate climate more conducive to longevity in China?

PubMed

Huang, Yi; Rosenberg, Mark; Wang, Yingli

2018-06-01

Climate is closely related to human longevity. In China, there are many climate types. According to national population censuses from 1982 to 2000, most provinces with a high ratio of centenarians are located in western and northwestern China far from the sea; these areas are characterized by a dry, cold climate, very high altitude, very high daily temperature range, strong winds, and partial hypoxia. Meanwhile, provinces with a high ratio of nonagenarians from 1982 to 2000 are located in southern China near the sea. Previous studies have attributed the high ratio of centenarians in western and northwestern China to the extreme local climate. However, centenarians in these areas decreased greatly in 2010, whereas residents in southern China frequently reached 90 to 100 years old in 2010. This study aims to explain this strange phenomenon and find whether extreme climate in Tibetan plateau and northwestern China or moderate climate in southern China is more conducive to longevity. The study found that mortality rate in Tibetan plateau is much higher than southern China, then a population evolution experiment was proposed to compare longevity indicators between low mortality rate and high mortality rate and shows that longevity indicators will decrease in the near future and increase above their original levels after several decades when the mortality rate is decreased. Results of this study show individuals in northwestern China do not live as long as those in eastern and southern China. A moderate climate is more conducive to longevity than extreme climate in China. The longevity of a region should be judged by long-term longevity indicators.

Is extreme climate or moderate climate more conducive to longevity in China?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Yi; Rosenberg, Mark; Wang, Yingli

2018-06-01

Climate is closely related to human longevity. In China, there are many climate types. According to national population censuses from 1982 to 2000, most provinces with a high ratio of centenarians are located in western and northwestern China far from the sea; these areas are characterized by a dry, cold climate, very high altitude, very high daily temperature range, strong winds, and partial hypoxia. Meanwhile, provinces with a high ratio of nonagenarians from 1982 to 2000 are located in southern China near the sea. Previous studies have attributed the high ratio of centenarians in western and northwestern China to the extreme local climate. However, centenarians in these areas decreased greatly in 2010, whereas residents in southern China frequently reached 90 to 100 years old in 2010. This study aims to explain this strange phenomenon and find whether extreme climate in Tibetan plateau and northwestern China or moderate climate in southern China is more conducive to longevity. The study found that mortality rate in Tibetan plateau is much higher than southern China, then a population evolution experiment was proposed to compare longevity indicators between low mortality rate and high mortality rate and shows that longevity indicators will decrease in the near future and increase above their original levels after several decades when the mortality rate is decreased. Results of this study show individuals in northwestern China do not live as long as those in eastern and southern China. A moderate climate is more conducive to longevity than extreme climate in China. The longevity of a region should be judged by long-term longevity indicators.

Future Extreme Event Vulnerability in the Rural Northeastern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winter, J.; Bowen, F. L.; Partridge, T.; Chipman, J. W.

2017-12-01

Future climate change impacts on humans will be determined by the convergence of evolving physical climate and socioeconomic systems. Of particular concern is the intersection of extreme events and vulnerable populations. Rural areas of the Northeastern United States have experienced increased temperature and precipitation extremes, especially over the past three decades, and face unique challenges due to their physical isolation, natural resources dependent economies, and high poverty rates. To explore the impacts of future extreme events on vulnerable, rural populations in the Northeast, we project extreme events and vulnerability indicators to identify where changes in extreme events and vulnerable populations coincide. Specifically, we analyze future (2046-2075) maximum annual daily temperature, minimum annual daily temperature, maximum annual daily precipitation, and maximum consecutive dry day length for Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 using four global climate models (GCM) and a gridded observational dataset. We then overlay those projections with estimates of county-level population and relative income for 2060 to calculate changes in person-events from historical (1976-2005), with a focus on Northeast counties that have less than 250,000 people and are in the bottom income quartile. We find that across the rural Northeast for RCP4.5, heat person-events per year increase tenfold, far exceeding decreases in cold person-events and relatively small changes in precipitation and drought person-events. Counties in the bottom income quartile have historically (1976-2005) experienced a disproportionate number of heat events, and counties in the bottom two income quartiles are projected to experience a greater heat event increase by 2046-2075 than counties in the top two income quartiles. We further explore the relative contributions of event frequency, population, and income changes to the total and geographic distribution of climate change impacts on rural, vulnerable areas of the Northeast.

Occurrence of energetic extreme oceanic events in the Colombian Caribbean coasts and some approaches to assess their impact on ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bernal, G.; Osorio, A. F.; Urrego, L.; Peláez, D.; Molina, E.; Zea, S.; Montoya, R. D.; Villegas, N.

2016-12-01

Above-normal meteorological and oceanographic conditions that generate damage on coastal ecosystems and associated human communities are called extreme oceanic events. Accurate data are needed to predict their occurrence and to understand their effects. We analyzed available data from four localities in the Colombian Caribbean to study the effect of wave-related extreme events (hurricanes, surges) in three coastal ecosystems, i.e., mangroves, beaches, and reefs. Three localities were continental (Portete Bay mangroves at the Guajira Peninsula, Bocagrande Public Beach at Cartagena City, Tayrona Natural Park reefs near Santa Marta City), and one was oceanic (Old Providence Island reefs in the San Andres and Old Providence Archipelago, SW Caribbean). We gathered data on ocean surface winds (1978-2011) for the four locations, then modeled significant wave heights, then identified extreme events, and finally tried to identify effects on the ecosystems, directly or from published literature. Wave-related extreme surges were also compiled from Colombian press news (1970-2008). Modeled wave maximums (> 5 m significant wave height) and press-reported events coincided with hurricanes, extreme dry season, mid-summer drought and northern hemisphere winter cold fronts, with neither a relationship to ENSO events, nor a temporal trend of increase, excepting Portete Bay, with a marked increase after 1995. Changes in Portete Bay mangroves were analyzed from aerial photographs before and after Tropical Storm Cesar (1996). In the 38 years before Cesar there was mangrove inland colonization, with some loss associated to beach erosion, while during the 8 years following the storm there were localized retreats and important changes in vegetation composition related to the falling of large trees and subsequent recolonization by species that are faster colonizers, and changes in soil composition brought about by inundation. Cartagena's Bocagrande Beach was followed between 2009 and 2011 by video, and two events of strong retreat were observed in 2010, one associated to the arriving of cold fronts in March, and the other to the passing of Hurricane Tomas in November-December. Together, they produced > 90 m beach retreat. We identified modeled wave maximums during Hurricane Lenny (1999) at Santa Marta city, and hurricane Beta (2005) at Old Providence Island, both of which, according to the literature, had transient minor effects on local coral reefs, which had been more affected by diseases and bleaching.

Candidate Coatings and Dry Traction Drives for Planetary Vehicles

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fusaro, Robert; Oswald, Fred B.

2002-01-01

Robert Fusaro and Fred Oswald of the Mechanical Components Branch discussed 'Candidate Coatings and Dry Traction Drives for Planetary Vehicles'. Vehicles to be designed for exploration of planets and moons of the solar system will require reliable mechanical drives to operate efficiently. Long-term operation of these drives will be challenging because of extreme operating conditions. These extreme conditions include: very high and/or very cold temperatures, wide temperature ranges, dust, vacuum or low-pressure atmospheres, and corrosive environments. Most drives used on Earth involve oil-lubricated gears. However, due to the extreme conditions on planetary surfaces, it may not be advisable or even possible to use oil lubrication. Unfortunately, solid lubricants do not work well when applied to gears because of the high contact stress conditions and large sliding motion between the teeth, which cause wear and limit life. We believe traction drives will provide an attractive alternative to gear drives. Traction drives are composed of rollers that provide geometry more conducive to solid lubrication. Minimal slip occurs in this contact geometry and thus there is very low wear to the solid lubricant. The challenge for these solid-lubricated drives is finding materials or coatings that provide the required long-life while also providing high traction. We seek materials that provide low wear with high friction.

Growth of high-elevation Cryptococcus sp. during extreme freeze-thaw cycles.

PubMed

Vimercati, L; Hamsher, S; Schubert, Z; Schmidt, S K

2016-09-01

Soils above 6000 m.a.s.l. are among the most extreme environments on Earth, especially on high, dry volcanoes where soil temperatures cycle between -10 and 30 °C on a typical summer day. Previous studies have shown that such sites are dominated by yeast in the cryophilic Cryptococcus group, but it is unclear if they can actually grow (or are just surviving) under extreme freeze-thaw conditions. We carried out a series of experiments to determine if Cryptococcus could grow during freeze-thaw cycles similar to those measured under field conditions. We found that Cryptococcus phylotypes increased in relative abundance in soils subjected to 48 days of freeze-thaw cycles, becoming the dominant organisms in the soil. In addition, pure cultures of Cryptococcus isolated from these same soils were able to grow in liquid cultures subjected to daily freeze-thaw cycles, despite the fact that the culture medium froze solid every night. Furthermore, we showed that this organism is metabolically versatile and phylogenetically almost identical to strains from Antarctic Dry Valley soils. Taken together these results indicate that this organism has unique metabolic and temperature adaptations that make it able to thrive in one of the harshest and climatically volatile places on Earth.

Recalibration of a ground-water flow model of the Mississippi River Valley alluvial aquifer of northeastern Arkansas, 1918-1998, with simulations of water levels caused by projected ground-water withdrawals through 2049

USGS Publications Warehouse

Reed, Thomas B.

2003-01-01

A digital model of the Mississippi River Valley alluvial aquifer in eastern Arkansas was used to simulate ground-water flow for the period from 1918 to 2049. The model results were used to evaluate effects on water levels caused by demand for ground water from the alluvial aquifer, which has increased steadily for the last 40 years. The model results showed that water currently (1998) is being withdrawn from the aquifer at rates greater than what can be sustained for the long term. The saturated thickness of the alluvial aquifer has been reduced in some areas resulting in dry wells, degraded water quality, decreased water availability, increased pumping costs, and lower well yields. The model simulated the aquifer from a line just north of the Arkansas-Missouri border to south of the Arkansas River and on the east from the Mississippi River westward to the less permeable geologic units of Paleozoic age. The model consists of 2 layers, a grid of 184 rows by 156 columns, and comprises 14,118 active cells each measuring 1 mile on a side. It simulates time periods from 1918 to 1998 along with further time periods to 2049 testing different pumping scenarios. Model flux boundary conditions were specified for rivers, general head boundaries along parts of the western side of the model and parts of Crowleys Ridge, and a specified head boundary across the aquifer further north in Missouri. Model calibration was conducted for observed water levels for the years 1972, 1982, 1992, and 1998. The average absolute residual was 4.69 feet and the root-mean square error was 6.04 feet for the hydraulic head observations for 1998. Hydraulic-conductivity values obtained during the calibration process were 230 feet per day for the upper layer and ranged from 230 to 730 feet per day for the lower layer with the maximum mean for the combined aquifer of 480 feet per day. Specific yield values were 0.30 throughout the model and specific storage values were 0.000001 inverse-feet throughout the model. Areally specified recharge rates ranged from 0 to about 30 inches and total recharge increased from 1972 to 1998 by a factor of about four. Water levels caused by projected ground-water withdrawals were simulated using the calibrated model. Simulations represented a period of 50 years into the future in three scenarios with either unchanged pumpage, pumpage increased by historic trends, or pumpage increased by historic trends except in two areas of the Grand Prairie. If pumping remains at 1997 rates, this produces extreme water-level declines (areas where model cells have gone dry or where the water level in the aquifer is equal to or less than the original saturated thickness, assuming confined conditions in the aquifer everywhere in the formation in predevelopment times) in the aquifer in two areas of the aquifer (one in the Grand Prairie area between the Arkansas and White Rivers and the other west of Crowleys Ridge along the Cache River) with about 400 square miles going dry. Increasing the pumping rates to that which would be projected using historic data led to increased extreme water-level declines in both areas with about 1,300 square miles going dry. Declines in both scenarios generally occurred most rapidly between 2009 and 2019. Reducing the pumping rates to 90 percent of that used for projected historic rates in areas between the Arkansas and White Rivers relating to two diversion projects of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and other agencies did little to decrease the extreme water-level declines. However, these pumpage reductions are small (amounting to about 16 percent of the reductions that could result from implementation of these diversion projects).

Summer drought reconstruction in northeastern Spain inferred from a tree ring latewood network since 1734

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tejedor, E.; Saz, M. A.; Esper, J.; Cuadrat, J. M.; de Luis, M.

2017-08-01

Drought recurrence in the Mediterranean is regarded as a fundamental factor for socioeconomic development and the resilience of natural systems in context of global change. However, knowledge of past droughts has been hampered by the absence of high-resolution proxies. We present a drought reconstruction for the northeast of the Iberian Peninsula based on a new dendrochronology network considering the Standardized Evapotranspiration Precipitation Index (SPEI). A total of 774 latewood width series from 387 trees of P. sylvestris and P. uncinata was combined in an interregional chronology. The new chronology, calibrated against gridded climate data, reveals a robust relationship with the SPEI representing drought conditions of July and August. We developed a summer drought reconstruction for the period 1734-2013 representative for the northeastern and central Iberian Peninsula. We identified 16 extremely dry and 17 extremely wet summers and four decadal scale dry and wet periods, including 2003-2013 as the driest episode of the reconstruction.

Climatic variability in the eastern United States over the past millenium from Chesapeake Bay sediments

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cronin, T.; Willard, D.; Karlsen, A.; Ishman, S.; Verardo, S.; McGeehin, J.; Kerhin, R.; Holmes, C.; Colman, S.; Zimmerman, A.

2000-01-01

Salinity oscillations caused by multidecadal climatic variability had major impacts on the Chesapeake Bay estuarine ecosystem during the past 1000 yr. Microfossils from sediments dated by radiometry (14C, 137Cs, 210Pb) and pollen stratigraphy indicate that salinity in mesohaline regions oscillated 10-15 ppt during periods of extreme drought (low fresh-water discharge) and wet climate (high discharge). During the past 500 yr, 14 wet-dry cycles occurred, including sixteenth and early seventeenth century megadroughts that exceeded twentieth century droughts in their severity. These droughts correspond to extremely dry climate also recorded in North American tree-ring records and by early colonists. Wet periods occurred every ~60-70 yr, began abruptly, lasted <20 yr, and had mean annual rainfall ~25%-30% and fresh-water discharge ~40%-50% greater than during droughts. A shift toward wetter regional climate occurred in the early nineteenth century, lowering salinity and compounding the effects of agricultural land clearance on bay ecosystems.

High-temperature friction and wear studies of Fe-Cu-Sn alloy with graphite as solid lubricant under dry sliding conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mushtaq, Shuhaib; Wani, M. F.

2018-02-01

Solid lubricants are particularly used in the advanced mechanical motion systems with extreme conditions such as (high temperature, vacuum, radiation, extreme contact pressure, etc). The main focus of this paper is to study the dry sliding friction and wear behavior of Fe-Cu-Sn alloy with varying wt% of graphite at high temperature up to 423 K. The influence of temperature, sliding distance and load on friction and wear behavior of Fe-Cu-Sn alloy against EN8 steel was studied using ball (EN8) on disc (Fe-Cu-Sn alloy). Lower wear and lower friction of Fe-Cu-Sn alloy were observed at high temperature, as compared to room temperature. Surface morphological and surface analytical studies of fresh and worn surfaces were carried out using optical microscopy, 3D profilometer, scanning electron microscope, energy dispersive x-ray spectroscopy, XRD, and Raman spectroscopy to understand the friction and wear behavior.

Diagnosing the Nature of Land-Atmosphere Coupling During the 2006-7 Dry/Wet Extremes in the U. S. Southern Great Plains

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Santanello, Joseph A., Jr.; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.; Kumar, Sujay V.; Dong, Xiquan; Kennedy, Aaron D.

2011-01-01

The degree of coupling between the land surface and PBL in NWP models remains largely undiagnosed due to the complex interactions and feedbacks present across a range of scales. In this study, a framework for diagnosing local land-atmosphere coupling (LoCo) is presented using a coupled mesoscale model with observations during the summers of 2006/7 in the U.S. Southern Great Plains. Specifically, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model has been coupled to NASA's Land Information System (LIS), which enables a suite of PBL and land surface model (LSM) options along provides a flexible and high-resolution representation and initialization of land surface physics and states. This coupling is one component of a larger project to develop a NASA-Unified WRF (NU-WRF) system. A range of diagnostics exploring the feedbacks between soil moisture and precipitation are examined for the dry/wet extremes, along with the sensitivity of PBL-LSM coupling to perturbations in soil moisture.

Selection of meteorological conditions to apply in an Ecotron facility

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leemans, Vincent; De Cruz, Lesley; Dumont, Benjamin; Hamdi, Rafiq; Delaplace, Pierre; Heinesh, Bernard; Garré, Sarah; Verheggen, François; Theodorakopoulos, Nicolas; Longdoz, Bernard

2017-04-01

This presentation aims to propose a generic method to produce meteorological input data that is useful for climate research infrastructures such as an Ecotron, where researchers will face the need to generate representative actual or future climatic conditions. Depending on the experimental objectives and the research purposes, typical conditions or more extreme values such as dry or wet climatic scenarios might be requested. Four variables were considered here, the near-surface air temperature, the near-surface relative humidity, the cloud cover and precipitation. The meteorological datasets, among which a specific meteorological year can be picked up, are produced by the ALARO-0 model from the RMIB (Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium). Two future climate scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5) and two time periods (2041-2070 and 2071-2100) were used as well as a historical run of the model (1981-2010) which is used as a reference. When the data from a historical run were compared to the observed historical data, biases were noticed. A linear correction was proposed for all the variables except for precipitation, for which a non-linear correction (using a power function) was chosen to maintain a zero-precipitation occurrences. These transformations were able to remove most of the differences between the observed and historical run of the model for the means and for the standard deviations. For the relative humidity, because of non-linearities, only one half of the average bias was corrected and a different path might have to be chosen. For the selection of a meteorological year, a position and a dispersion parameter have been proposed to characterise each meteorological year for each variable. For precipitation, a third parameter quantifying the importance of dry and wet periods has been defined. In order to select a specific climate, for each of these nine parameters the experimenter should provide a percentile and a weight to prioritize the importance of each variable in the process of a global climate selection. The proposed algorithm computed the weighted distance for each year between the parameters and the point representing the position of the percentile in the nine-dimensional space. The five closest values were then selected and represented in different graphs. The proposed method is able to provide a decision aid in the selection of the meteorological conditions to be generated within an Ecotron. However, with a limited number of years available in each case (thirty years for each RCP and each time period), there is no perfect match and the ultimate trade-off will be the responsibility of the researcher. For typical years, close to the median, the relative frequency is higher and the trade-off is more easy than for more extreme years where the relative frequency is low.

Potential aboveground biomass in drought-prone forest used for rangeland pastoralism.

PubMed

Fensham, R J; Fairfax, R J; Dwyer, J M

2012-04-01

The restoration of cleared dry forest represents an important opportunity to sequester atmospheric carbon. In order to account for this potential, the influences of climate, soils, and disturbance need to be deciphered. A data set spanning a region defined the aboveground biomass of mulga (Acacia aneura) dry forest and was analyzed in relation to climate and soil variables using a Bayesian model averaging procedure. Mean annual rainfall had an overwhelmingly strong positive effect, with mean maximum temperature (negative) and soil depth (positive) also important. The data were collected after a recent drought, and the amount of recent tree mortality was weakly positively related to a measure of three-year rainfall deficit, and maximum temperature (positive), soil depth (negative), and coarse sand (negative). A grazing index represented by the distance of sites to watering points was not incorporated by the models. Stark management contrasts, including grazing exclosures, can represent a substantial part of the variance in the model predicting biomass, but the impact of management was unpredictable and was insignificant in the regional data set. There was no evidence of density-dependent effects on tree mortality. Climate change scenarios represented by the coincidence of historical extreme rainfall deficit with extreme temperature suggest mortality of 30.1% of aboveground biomass, compared to 21.6% after the recent (2003-2007) drought. Projections for recovery of forest using a mapping base of cleared areas revealed that the greatest opportunities for restoration of aboveground biomass are in the higher-rainfall areas, where biomass accumulation will be greatest and droughts are less intense. These areas are probably the most productive for rangeland pastoralism, and the trade-off between pastoral production and carbon sequestration will be determined by market forces and carbon-trading rules.

Searching for evidence of changes in extreme rainfall indices in the Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muluneh, Alemayehu; Bewket, Woldeamlak; Keesstra, Saskia; Stroosnijder, Leo

2017-05-01

Extreme rainfall events have serious implications for economic sectors with a close link to climate such as agriculture and food security. This holds true in the Central Rift Valley (CRV) of Ethiopia where communities rely on highly climate-sensitive rainfed subsistence farming for livelihoods. This study investigates changes in ten extreme rainfall indices over a period of 40 years (1970-2009) using 14 meteorological stations located in the CRV. The CRV consists of three landscape units: the valley floor, the escarpments, and the highlands all of which are considered in our data analysis. The Belg (March-May) and Kiremt (June-September) seasons are also considered in the analysis. The Mann-Kendall test was used to detect trends of the rainfall indices. The results indicated that at the annual time scale, more than half (57 %) of the stations showed significant trends in total wet-day precipitation (PRCPTOT) and heavy precipitation days (R10mm). Only 7-35 % of stations showed significant trends, for the other rainfall indices. Spatially, the valley floor received increasing annual rainfall while the escarpments and the highlands received decreasing annual rainfall over the last 40 years. During Belg, 50 % of the stations showed significant increases in the maximum number of consecutive dry days (CDD) in all parts of the CRV. However, most other rainfall indices during Belg showed no significant changes. During Kiremt, considering both significant and non-significant trends, almost all rainfall indices showed an increasing trend in the valley floor and a decreasing trend in the escarpment and highlands. During Belg and Kiremt, the CDD generally showed increasing tendency in the CRV.

Hyperthermia and cardiovascular strain during an extreme heat exposure in young versus older adults

PubMed Central

Kenny, Glen P.; Poirier, Martin P.; Metsios, George S.; Boulay, Pierre; Dervis, Sheila; Friesen, Brian J.; Malcolm, Janine; Sigal, Ronald J.; Seely, Andrew J. E.; Flouris, Andreas D.

2017-01-01

ABSTRACT We examined whether older individuals experience greater levels of hyperthermia and cardiovascular strain during an extreme heat exposure compared to young adults. During a 3-hour extreme heat exposure (44°C, 30% relative humidity), we compared body heat storage, core temperature (rectal, visceral) and cardiovascular (heart rate, cardiac output, mean arterial pressure, limb blood flow) responses of young adults (n = 30, 19–28 years) against those of older adults (n = 30, 55–73 years). Direct calorimetry measured whole-body evaporative and dry heat exchange. Body heat storage was calculated as the temporal summation of heat production (indirect calorimetry) and whole-body heat loss (direct calorimetry) over the exposure period. While both groups gained a similar amount of heat in the first hour, the older adults showed an attenuated increase in evaporative heat loss (p < 0.033) in the first 30-min. Thereafter, the older adults were unable to compensate for a greater rate of heat gain (11 ± 1 ; p < 0.05) with a corresponding increase in evaporative heat loss. Older adults stored more heat (358 ± 173 kJ) relative to their younger (202 ± 92 kJ; p < 0.001) counterparts at the end of the exposure leading to greater elevations in rectal (p = 0.043) and visceral (p = 0.05) temperatures, albeit not clinically significant (rise < 0.5°C). Older adults experienced a reduction in calf blood flow (p < 0.01) with heat stress, yet no differences in cardiac output, blood pressure or heart rate. We conclude, in healthy habitually active individuals, despite no clinically observable cardiovascular or temperature changes, older adults experience greater heat gain and decreased limb perfusion in response to 3-hour heat exposure. PMID:28349096

Sensitivity of soil moisture initialization for decadal predictions under different regional climatic conditions in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khodayar, S.; Sehlinger, A.; Feldmann, H.; Kottmeier, C.

2015-12-01

The impact of soil initialization is investigated through perturbation simulations with the regional climate model COSMO-CLM. The focus of the investigation is to assess the sensitivity of simulated extreme periods, dry and wet, to soil moisture initialization in different climatic regions over Europe and to establish the necessary spin up time within the framework of decadal predictions for these regions. Sensitivity experiments consisted of a reference simulation from 1968 to 1999 and 5 simulations from 1972 to 1983. The Effective Drought Index (EDI) is used to select and quantify drought status in the reference run to establish the simulation time period for the sensitivity experiments. Different soil initialization procedures are investigated. The sensitivity of the decadal predictions to soil moisture initial conditions is investigated through the analysis of water cycle components' (WCC) variability. In an episodic time scale the local effects of soil moisture on the boundary-layer and the propagated effects on the large-scale dynamics are analysed. The results show: (a) COSMO-CLM reproduces the observed features of the drought index. (b) Soil moisture initialization exerts a relevant impact on WCC, e.g., precipitation distribution and intensity. (c) Regional characteristics strongly impact the response of the WCC. Precipitation and evapotranspiration deviations are larger for humid regions. (d) The initial soil conditions (wet/dry), the regional characteristics (humid/dry) and the annual period (wet/dry) play a key role in the time that soil needs to restore quasi-equilibrium and the impact on the atmospheric conditions. Humid areas, and for all regions, a humid initialization, exhibit shorter spin up times, also soil reacts more sensitive when initialised during dry periods. (e) The initial soil perturbation may markedly modify atmospheric pressure field, wind circulation systems and atmospheric water vapour distribution affecting atmospheric stability conditions, thus modifying precipitation intensity and distribution even several years after the initialization.

Extremely low prevalence of Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis in frog populations from neotropical dry forest of Costa Rica supports the existence of a climatic refuge from disease.

PubMed

Zumbado-Ulate, Héctor; Bolaños, Federico; Gutiérrez-Espeleta, Gustavo; Puschendorf, Robert

2014-12-01

Population declines and extinctions of numerous species of amphibians, especially stream-breeding frogs, have been linked to the emerging infectious disease chytridiomycosis, caused by the chytrid fungus, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis. In Central America, most of the 34 species of the Craugastor punctariolus species group have disappeared in recent years in high- and low-elevation rainforests. Distribution models for B. dendrobatidis and the continuous presence of the extirpated stream-dwelling species, Craugastor ranoides, in the driest site of Costa Rica (Santa Elena Peninsula), suggest that environmental conditions might restrict the growth and development of B. dendrobatidis, existing as a refuge from chytridiomycosis-driven extinction. We conducted field surveys to detect and quantify the pathogen using Real-time PCR in samples from 15 species of frogs in two locations of tropical dry forest. In Santa Elena Peninsula, we swabbed 310 frogs, and only one sample of the species, C. ranoides, tested positive for B. dendrobatidis (prevalence <0.1%). In Santa Rosa Station, we swabbed 100 frogs, and nine samples from three species tested positive (prevalence = 9.0%). We failed to detect signs of chytridiomycosis in any of the 410 sampled frogs, and low quantities of genetic equivalents (between 0 and 1073) were obtained from the ten positive samples. The difference in the prevalence between locations might be due not only to the hotter and drier conditions of Santa Elena Peninsula but also to the different compositions of species in both locations. Our results suggest that B. dendrobatidis is at the edge of its distribution in these dry and hot environments of tropical dry forest. This study supports the existence of climatic refuges from chytridiomycosis and highlights the importance of tropical dry forest conservation for amphibians in the face of epidemic disease.

Few multi-year precipitation-reduction experiments find a shift in the productivity-precipitation relationship

DOE PAGES

Estiarte, Marc; Vicca, Sara; Penuelas, Josep; ...

2016-04-06

Well-defined productivity–precipitation relationships of ecosystems are needed as benchmarks for the validation of land models used for future projections. The productivity–precipitation relationship may be studied in two ways: the spatial approach relates differences in productivity to those in precipitation among sites along a precipitation gradient (the spatial fit, with a steeper slope); the temporal approach relates interannual productivity changes to variation in precipitation within sites (the temporal fits, with flatter slopes). Precipitation–reduction experiments in natural ecosystems represent a complement to the fits, because they can reduce precipitation below the natural range and are thus well suited to study potential effectsmore » of climate drying. Here, we analyse the effects of dry treatments in eleven multiyear precipitation–manipulation experiments, focusing on changes in the temporal fit. We expected that structural changes in the dry treatments would occur in some experiments, thereby reducing the intercept of the temporal fit and displacing the productivity–precipitation relationship downward the spatial fit. Seventy two percent of expiriments showed that dry treatments did not alter the temporal fit. This implies that current temporal fits are to be preferred over the spatial fit to benchmark land-model projections of productivity under future climate within the precipitation ranges covered by the experiments. Moreover, in two experiments, the intercept of the temporal fit unexpectedly increased due to mechanisms that reduced either water loss or nutrient loss. The expected decrease of the intercept was observed in only one experiment, and only when distinguishing between the late and the early phases of the experiment. This implies that we currently do not know at which precipitation–reduction level or at which experimental duration structural changes will start to alter ecosystem productivity. Our study highlights the need for experiments with multiple, including more extreme, dry treatments, to identify the precipitation boundaries within which the current temporal fits remain valid.« less

Few multi-year precipitation-reduction experiments find a shift in the productivity-precipitation relationship

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Estiarte, Marc; Vicca, Sara; Penuelas, Josep

Well-defined productivity–precipitation relationships of ecosystems are needed as benchmarks for the validation of land models used for future projections. The productivity–precipitation relationship may be studied in two ways: the spatial approach relates differences in productivity to those in precipitation among sites along a precipitation gradient (the spatial fit, with a steeper slope); the temporal approach relates interannual productivity changes to variation in precipitation within sites (the temporal fits, with flatter slopes). Precipitation–reduction experiments in natural ecosystems represent a complement to the fits, because they can reduce precipitation below the natural range and are thus well suited to study potential effectsmore » of climate drying. Here, we analyse the effects of dry treatments in eleven multiyear precipitation–manipulation experiments, focusing on changes in the temporal fit. We expected that structural changes in the dry treatments would occur in some experiments, thereby reducing the intercept of the temporal fit and displacing the productivity–precipitation relationship downward the spatial fit. Seventy two percent of expiriments showed that dry treatments did not alter the temporal fit. This implies that current temporal fits are to be preferred over the spatial fit to benchmark land-model projections of productivity under future climate within the precipitation ranges covered by the experiments. Moreover, in two experiments, the intercept of the temporal fit unexpectedly increased due to mechanisms that reduced either water loss or nutrient loss. The expected decrease of the intercept was observed in only one experiment, and only when distinguishing between the late and the early phases of the experiment. This implies that we currently do not know at which precipitation–reduction level or at which experimental duration structural changes will start to alter ecosystem productivity. Our study highlights the need for experiments with multiple, including more extreme, dry treatments, to identify the precipitation boundaries within which the current temporal fits remain valid.« less

Compound extremes of summer temperature and precipitation leading to intensified departures from natural variability.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mahony, C. R.; Cannon, A. J.

2017-12-01

Climate change can drive local climates outside the range of their historical year-to-year variability, straining the adaptive capacity of ecological and human communities. We demonstrate that interactions between climate variables can produce larger and earlier departures from natural variability than is detectable in individual variables. For example, summer temperature (Tx) and precipitation (Pr) are negatively correlated in most terrestrial regions, such that interannual variability lies along an axis from warm-and-dry to cool-and-wet conditions. A climate change trend perpendicular to this axis, towards warmer-wetter conditions, can depart more quickly from the range of natural variability than a warmer-drier trend. This multivariate "departure intensification" effect is evident in all six CMIP5 models that we examined: 23% (9-34%) of the land area of each model exhibits a pronounced increase in 2σ extremesin the Tx-Pr regime relative to Tx or Pr alone. Observational data suggest that Tx-Pr correlations are sufficient to produce departure intensification in distinct regions on all continents. Departures from the historical Tx-Pr regime may produce ecological disruptions, such as in plant-pathogen interactions and human diseases, that could offset the drought mitigation benefits of increased precipitation. Our study alerts researchers and adaptation practitioners to the presence of multivariate climate change signals and compound extremes that are not detectable in individual climate variables.

Droughts in historical times in Polish territory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Limanowka, Danuta; Cebulak, Elzbieta; Pyrc, Robert; Doktor, Radoslaw

2015-04-01

Climate change is one of the key environmental, social and economical issues, and it is also followed by political consequences. Impact of climate conditions on countries' economy is increasingly recognized, and a lot of attention is given, both in the global scale and by the individual national governments. In years 2008-2010, at the Poland -Institute of Meteorology and Water Management-National Research Institute was realized the KLIMAT Project on Impact of climate change on environment, economy and society (changes, effects and methods of reducing them, conclusions for science, engineering practice and economic planning) No. POIG01-03-01-14-011/08. The project was financed by the European Union and Polish state budget in frame of Innovative Economy Operational Programme. A very wide range of research was carried out in the different thematic areas. One of them was "Natural disasters and internal safety of the country (civil and economical)." The problem of drought in Poland was developed in terms of meteorology and hydrology. "Proxy" Data Descriptions very often inform about dry years and seasons, hot periods without precipitation. Analysis of historical material allowed to extract the years that have experienced prolonged periods of high temperatures and rainfall shortages. Weather phenomenon defined as drought belongs to extreme events. This information was very helpful in the process of indexing and thus to restore the course and intensity of climatic elements in the past. The analysis covered the period from year 1000 to modern times. Due to the limited information from the period of 1000-1500 the authors focused primarily on the period from 1500 to 2010. Analysis of the collected material has allowed the development of a highly precise temporal structure of the possible occurrence of dry periods to Polish territory.

Effects of human trampling on populations of soil fauna in the McMurdo Dry Valleys, Antarctica.

PubMed

Ayres, Edward; Nkem, Johnson N; Wall, Diana H; Adams, Byron J; Barrett, J E; Broos, Emma J; Parsons, Andrew N; Powers, Laura E; Simmons, Breana L; Virginia, Ross A

2008-12-01

Antarctic ecosystems are often considered nearly pristine because levels of anthropogenic disturbance are extremely low there. Nevertheless, over recent decades there has been a rapid increase in the number of people, researchers and tourists, visiting Antarctica. We evaluated, over 10 years, the direct impact of foot traffic on the abundance of soil animals and soil properties in Taylor Valley within the McMurdo Dry Valleys region of Antarctica. We compared soils from minimally disturbed areas with soils from nearby paths that received intermediate and high levels of human foot traffic (i.e., up to approximately 80 passes per year). The nematodes Scottnema lindsayae and Eudorylaimus sp. were the most commonly found animal species, whereas rotifers and tardigrades were found only occasionally. On the highly trampled footpaths, abundance of S. lindsayae and Eudorylaimus sp. was up to 52 and 76% lower, respectively, than in untrampled areas. Moreover, reduction in S. lindsayae abundance was more pronounced after 10 years than 2 years and in the surface soil than in the deeper soil, presumably because of the longer period of disturbance and the greater level of physical disturbance experienced by the surface soil. The ratio of living to dead Eudorylaimus sp. also declined with increased trampling intensity, which is indicative of increased mortality or reduced fecundity. At one site there was evidence that high levels of trampling reduced soil CO(2) fluxes, which is related to total biological activity in the soil. Our results show that even low levels of human traffic can significantly affect soil biota in this ecosystem and may alter ecosystem processes, such as carbon cycling. Consequently, management and conservation plans for Antarctic soils should consider the high sensitivity of soil fauna to physical disturbance as human presence in this ecosystem increases.

Effects of air-sea coupling over the North Sea and the Baltic Sea on simulated summer precipitation over Central Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ho-Hagemann, Ha Thi Minh; Gröger, Matthias; Rockel, Burkhardt; Zahn, Matthias; Geyer, Beate; Meier, H. E. Markus

2017-12-01

This study introduces a new approach to investigate the potential effects of air-sea coupling on simulated precipitation inland over Central Europe. We present an inter-comparison of two regional climate models (RCMs), namely, the COSMO-CLM (hereafter CCLM) and RCA4 models, which are configured for the EURO-CORDEX domain in the coupled and atmosphere-only modes. Two versions of the CCLM model, namely, 4.8 and 5.0, join the inter-comparison being almost two different models while providing pronouncedly different summer precipitation simulations because of many changes in the dynamics and physics of CCLM in version 5.0. The coupling effect on the prominent summer dry bias over Central Europe is analysed using seasonal (JJA) mean statistics for the 30-year period from 1979 to 2009, with a focus on extreme precipitation under specific weather regimes. The weather regimes are compared between the coupled and uncoupled simulations to better understand the mechanism of the coupling effects. The comparisons of the coupled systems with the atmosphere-only models show that coupling clearly reduces the dry bias over Central Europe for CCLM 4.8, which has a large dry summer bias, but not for CCLM 5.0 and RCA4, which have smaller dry biases. This result implies that if the atmosphere-only model already yields reasonable summer precipitation over Central Europe, not much room for improvement exists that can be caused by the air-sea coupling over the North Sea and the Baltic Sea. However, if the atmosphere-only model shows a pronounced summer dry bias because of a lack of moisture transport from the seas into the region, the considered coupling may create an improved simulation of summer precipitation over Central Europe, such as for CCLM 4.8. For the latter, the benefit of coupling varies over the considered timescales. The precipitation simulations that are generated by the coupled system COSTRICE 4.8 and the atmosphere-only CCLM 4.8 are mostly identical for the summer mean. However, the COSTRICE simulations are generally more accurate than the atmosphere-only CCLM simulations if extreme precipitation is considered, particularly under Northerly Circulation conditions, in which the airflow from the North Atlantic Ocean passes the North Sea in the coupling domain. The air-sea feedback (e.g., wind, evaporation and sea surface temperature) and land-sea interactions are better reproduced with the COSTRICE model system than the atmosphere-only CCLM and lead to an improved simulation of large-scale moisture convergence from the sea to land and, consequently, increased heavy precipitation over Central Europe.

Ambient Dried Aerogels

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jones, Steven M.; Paik, Jong-Ah

2013-01-01

A method has been developed for creating aerogel using normal pressure and ambient temperatures. All spacecraft, satellites, and landers require the use of thermal insulation due to the extreme environments encountered in space and on extraterrestrial bodies. Ambient dried aerogels introduce the possibility of using aerogel as thermal insulation in a wide variety of instances where supercritically dried aerogels cannot be used. More specifically, thermoelectric devices can use ambient dried aerogel, where the advantages are in situ production using the cast-in ability of an aerogel. Previously, aerogels required supercritical conditions (high temperature and high pressure) to be dried. Ambient dried aerogels can be dried at room temperature and pressure. This allows many materials, such as plastics and certain metal alloys that cannot survive supercritical conditions, to be directly immersed in liquid aerogel precursor and then encapsulated in the final, dried aerogel. Additionally, the metalized Mylar films that could not survive the previous methods of making aerogels can survive the ambient drying technique, thus making multilayer insulation (MLI) materials possible. This results in lighter insulation material as well. Because this innovation does not require high-temperature or high-pressure drying, ambient dried aerogels are much less expensive to produce. The equipment needed to conduct supercritical drying costs many tens of thousands of dollars, and has associated running expenses for power, pressurized gasses, and maintenance. The ambient drying process also expands the size of the pieces of aerogel that can be made because a high-temperature, high-pressure system typically has internal dimensions of up to 30 cm in diameter and 60 cm in height. In the case of this innovation, the only limitation on the size of the aerogels produced would be in the ability of the solvent in the wet gel to escape from the gel network.

Comparative Analysis of Reproductive Traits in Black-Chinned Tilapia Females from Various Coastal Marine, Estuarine and Freshwater Ecosystems

PubMed Central

Kantoussan, Justin; Ndiaye, Papa; Thiaw, Omar Thiom; Albaret, Jean-Jacques

2012-01-01

The black-chinned tilapia Sarotherodon melanotheron is a marine teleost characterised by an extreme euryhalinity. However, beyond a certain threshold at very high salinity, the species exhibits impaired growth and precocious reproduction. In this study, the relationships between reproductive parameters, environmental salinity and condition factor were investigated in wild populations of this species that were sampled in two consecutive years (2003 and 2004) from three locations in Senegal with different salinities: Guiers lake (freshwater, 0 psu), Hann bay (seawater, 37 psu) and Saloum estuary (hypersaline water, 66–127 psu). The highest absolute fecundity and spawning weight were recorded in seawater by comparison to either freshwater or hypersaline water whereas the poorest condition factors were observed in the most saline sampling site. These results reflect higher resource allocation to the reproduction due to the lowest costs of adaptation to salinity in seawater (the natural environment of this species) rather than differences in food resources at sites and/or efficiency at foraging and prey availability. Fecundities, oocyte size as well as spawning weight were consistent from year to year. However, the relative fecundity in the Saloum estuary varied significantly between the dry and rainy raisons with higher values in the wet season, which seems to reflect seasonal variations in environmental salinity. Such a reproductive tactic of producing large amounts of eggs in the rainy season when the salinity in the estuary was lower, would give the fry a better chance at survival and therefore assures a high larval recruitment. An inverse correlation was found between relative fecundity and oocyte size at the two extreme salinity locations, indicating that S. melanotheron has different reproductive strategies in these ecosystems. The adaptive significance of these two reproductive modes is discussed in regard to the heavy osmotic constraint imposed by extreme salinities and high inter-specific competition. PMID:22253726

A reconstruction of sea surface temperature variability in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico from 1734 to 2008 C.E. using cross-dated Sr/Ca records from the coral Siderastrea siderea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

DeLong, Kristine L.; Flannery, Jennifer A.; Poore, Richard Z.; Quinn, Terrence M.; Maupin, Christopher R.; Lin, Ke; Shen, Chuan-Chou

2014-05-01

This study uses skeletal variations in coral Sr/Ca from three Siderastrea siderea coral colonies within the Dry Tortugas National Park in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico (24°42'N, 82°48'W) to reconstruct monthly sea surface temperature (SST) variations from 1734 to 2008 Common Era (C.E.). Calibration and verification of the replicated coral Sr/Ca-SST reconstruction with local, regional, and historical temperature records reveals that this proxy-temperature relationship is stable back to 1879 C.E. The coral SST reconstruction contains robust interannual ( 2.0°C) and multidecadal variability ( 1.5°C) for the past 274 years, the latter of which does not covary with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. Winter SST extremes are more variable than summer SST extremes (±2.2°C versus ±1.6°C, 2σ) suggesting that Loop Current transport in the winter dominates variability on interannual and longer time scales. Summer SST maxima are increasing (+1.0°C for 274 years, σMC = ±0.5°C, 2σ), whereas winter SST minima contain no significant trend. Colder decades ( 1.5°C) during the Little Ice Age (LIA) do not coincide with decades of sunspot minima. The coral SST reconstruction contains similar variability to temperature reconstructions from the northern Gulf of Mexico (planktic foraminifer Mg/Ca) and the Caribbean Sea (coral Sr/Ca) suggesting areal reductions in the Western Hemisphere Warm Pool during the LIA. Mean summer coral SST extremes post-1985 C.E. (29.9°C) exceeds the long-term summer average (29.2°C for 1734-2008 C.E.), yet the warming trend after 1985 C.E. (0.04°C for 24 years, σMC = ±0.5, 2σ) is not significant, whereas Caribbean coral Sr/Ca studies contain a warming trend for this interval.

Bottlenecks drive temporal and spatial genetic changes in alpine caddisfly metapopulations.

PubMed

Shama, Lisa N S; Kubow, Karen B; Jokela, Jukka; Robinson, Christopher T

2011-09-27

Extinction and re-colonisation of local populations is common in ephemeral habitats such as temporary streams. In most cases, such population turnover leads to reduced genetic diversity within populations and increased genetic differentiation among populations due to stochastic founder events, genetic drift, and bottlenecks associated with re-colonisation. Here, we examined the spatio-temporal genetic structure of 8 alpine caddisfly populations inhabiting permanent and temporary streams from four valleys in two regions of the Swiss Alps in years before and after a major stream drying event, the European heat wave in summer 2003. We found that population turnover after 2003 led to a loss of allelic richness and gene diversity but not to significant changes in observed heterozygosity. Within all valleys, permanent and temporary streams in any given year were not differentiated, suggesting considerable gene flow and admixture between streams with differing hydroperiods. Large changes in allele frequencies after 2003 resulted in a substantial increase in genetic differentiation among valleys within one to two years (1-2 generations) driven primarily by drift and immigration. Signatures of genetic bottlenecks were detected in all 8 populations after 2003 using the M-ratio method, but in no populations when using a heterozygosity excess method, indicating differential sensitivity of bottleneck detection methods. We conclude that genetic differentiation among A. uncatus populations changed markedly both temporally and spatially in response to the extreme climate event in 2003. Our results highlight the magnitude of temporal population genetic changes in response to extreme events. More specifically, our results show that extreme events can cause rapid genetic divergence in metapopulations. Further studies are needed to determine if recovery from this perturbation through gradual mixing of diverged populations by migration and gene flow leads to the pre-climate event state, or whether the observed changes represent a new genetic equilibrium.

Recent advances on reconstruction of climate and extreme events in China for the past 2000 year

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zheng, Jingyun; Hao, Zhixin; Ge, Quansheng; Liu, Yang

2016-04-01

The study of regional climate changes for past 2000 year could present spatial pattern of climate variation and various historical analogues for the sensitivity and operation of the climate system (e.g., the modulations of internal variability, feedbacks and teleconnections, abrupt changes and regional extreme events, etc.) from inter-annual to centennial scales and provide the knowledge to predict and project climate in the near future. China is distinguished by a prominent monsoon climate in east, continental arid climate in northwest and high land cold climate in Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau located at southwest. The long history of civilization and the variety of climate in China provides an abundant and well-dated documentary records and a wide range of natural archives (e.g., tree-ring, ice core, stalagmite, varved lake sediment, etc.) for high-resolution paleoclimate reconstruction. This paper presented a review of recent advances on reconstruction of climate and extreme events in China for the past 2000 years. In recent 10 years, there were many new high-resolution paleoclimatic reconstructions reported in China, e.g., the annual and decadal resolution series of temperature and precipitation in eastern China derived from historical documents, in western China derived from tree-ring and other natural archives. These new reconstructions provided more proxies and better spatial coverage to understand the characteristics of climate change over China and the uncertainty of regional reconstructions, as well as to reconstruct the high-resolution temperature series and the spatial pattern of precipitation change for whole China in the past millenniums by synthesizing the multi-proxy together. The updated results show that, in China, the warm intervals for the past 2000 years were in AD 1-200, AD 551-760, AD 951-1320, and after AD 1921; as well as the cold intervals were in AD 201-350, AD 441-530, AD 781-950, and AD 1321-1920. The extreme cold winters occurred in periods of 1500-1900 were more frequent than that after 1950. The intensity of regional heat wave occurred in the context of recent global warming may not exceed the natural climate variability during the historical times. In the eastern monsoon region of China, the significant cycles of precipitation are 90-100a, 70-80a, 43-48a, 35a, 25-27a and 17-18a in North China Plain; 90-100a, 73-75a, 63-68a, 55a, 45a, 37a and 26a in Jiang-Huai area; and 85-100a, 75-77a, 58-65a, 37-39a, 31a and 26a in Jiang-Nan area; respectively. Whereas, the spatial pattern of drought/flood for all cold periods ensemble mean showed an east to west distribution, but for all warm periods ensemble mean showed a tri-pole pattern with drought in south of 25°N, flood in 25°-30°N, and drought in north of 30°N. The extreme drought events were more frequent at the periods of 301-400, 751-800, 1051-1150, 1501-1550 and 1601-1650, the extreme flood events were more frequent at the periods of 101-150, 251-300, 951-1000, 1701-1750, 1801-1850 and 1901-1950, and for the period of 1551-1600, the coexisting extreme drought and extreme flood events most frequently occurred. In arid area, China, it was characterized by a relatively dry in AD 1000-1350, a wet in AD 1500 to 1850 and tending to moisture in recent decades. In the northeastern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, there existed evident centennial oscillations for precipitation during the past 1000 years, with interruption of several multi-decadal severe drought events, which two prominent droughty events centered on AD1480s and AD 1710s. In the Southwest of China, the extreme droughts as severe as in Sichuan and Chongqing in 2006 have also been occurred during the historical times.

Creatine and creatinine evolution during the processing of dry-cured ham.

PubMed

Mora, Leticia; Hernández-Cázares, Aleida S; Sentandreu, Miguel Angel; Toldrá, Fidel

2010-03-01

Dry-curing of ham involves many biochemical reactions that depend on the processing conditions. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of the dry-cured processing on the concentration of creatine, creatinine and the creatinine/creatine ratio. Dry-cured hams under study were salted using three different salt mixtures (100% NaCl; NaCl and KCl at 50% each; and 55% NaCl, 25% KCl, 15% CaCl(2) and 5% MgCl(2)) in order to observe its influence on creatinine formation but no significant differences were found between them at any time of processing. However, significant differences between different post-salting times (20, 50 and 80 days) and the ripened hams (7, 9 and 11 months of ripening) were observed. Results showed that creatine and creatinine remain stable once the ripening period is reached. These results were confirmed when analysing dry-cured ham samples submitted to extreme conditions of temperature and time (20, 30, 40 and 70 degrees C during 0, 20, 40 and 60 min) as well as commercial dry-cured hams with more than 12 months of processing. Copyright 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Static and Dynamic Measurement of Ocular Surface Temperature in Dry Eyes

PubMed Central

Sanjay, Srinivasan; Morgan, Philip B.

2016-01-01

Purpose. To study ocular surface temperature (OST) in dry eyes by static and dynamic measures. Methods. OST was recorded on 62 dry eyes and 63 age- and sex-matched controls. Static measures were study of absolute OST at t = 0, 5, and 10 s after eye opening. Dynamic measures were study of mean change and net change in OST over 10 s of sustained eye opening. Ten OST indices studied were temperatures of the geometric center of the cornea (GCC), extreme temporal (T1) and nasal conjunctiva (T4), midtemporal (CT) and nasal conjunctiva (CN), temporal (LT) and nasal (LN) limbus, and mean (MOST), maximum (Max T), and minimum (Min T) temperatures of the region of interest. Results. For static measures, dry eyes recorded significantly lower GCC, MOST, Min T, Max T, T4, CT, LT, LN, and CN. For dynamic measures, dry eyes had significantly steeper regression line of mean change (corresponding to greater net change) for Max T 5 s onward and T4 at 3 s onward. Conclusions. Both static and dynamic measures of the OST were valuable and can be used as clinical tool to assess dry eye. PMID:27433352

Milliscale Self-Integration of Megamolecule Biopolymers on a Drying Gas-Aqueous Liquid Crystalline Interface.

PubMed

Okeyoshi, Kosuke; Okajima, Maiko K; Kaneko, Tatsuo

2016-06-13

A drying environment is always a proposition faced by dynamic living organisms using water, which are driven by biopolymer-based micro- and macrostructures. Here, we introduce a drying process for aqueous liquid crystalline (LC) solutions composed of biopolymer with extremely high molecular weight components such as polysaccharides, cytoskeletal proteins, and DNA. On controlling the mobility of the LC microdomain, the solutions showed milliscale self-integration starting from the unstable gas-LC interface during drying. In particular, we first identified giant rod-like microdomains (∼1 μm diameter and more than 20 μm length) of the mega-molecular polysaccharide, sacran, which is remarkably larger than other polysaccharides. These microdomains led to the formation of a single milliscale macrodomain on the interface. In addition, the dried polymer films on a solid substrate also revealed that such integration depends on the size of the microdomain. We envision that this simple drying method will be useful not only for understanding the biopolymer hierarchization at the macroscale level but also for preparation of surfaces with direction controllability, as seen in living organisms, for use in various fields such as diffusion, mechanics, and photonics.

Declining pine growth in Central Spain coincides with increasing diurnal temperature range since the 1970s

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Büntgen, Ulf; Martínez-Peña, Fernando; Aldea, Jorge; Rigling, Andreas; Fischer, Erich M.; Camarero, J. Julio; Hayes, Michael J.; Fatton, Vincent; Egli, Simon

2013-08-01

Growing evidence suggests environmental change to be most severe across the semi-arid subtropics, with past, present and projected drying of the Mediterranean Basin posing a key multidisciplinary challenge. Consideration of a single climatic factor, however, often fails to explain spatiotemporal growth dynamics of drought-prone ecosystems. Here, we present annually resolved and absolutely dated ring width measurements of 871 Scots pines (Pinus sylvestris) from 18 individual plot sites in the Central Spanish Pinar Grande forest reserve. Although comprising tree ages from 6 to 175 years, this network correlates surprisingly well with the inverse May-July diurnal temperature range (r = 0.84; p < 0.00011956-2011). Ring width extremes were triggered by pressure anomalies of the North Atlantic Oscillation, and the long-term growth decline coincided with Iberian-wide drying since the mid-1970s. Climate model simulations not only confirm this negative trend over the last decades but also project drought to continuously increase over the 21st century. Associated ecological effects and socio-economic consequences should be considered to improve adaptation strategies of agricultural and forest management, as well as biodiversity conservation and ecosystem service.

Occupancy and abundance of the endangered yellowcheek darter in Arkansas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Magoulick, Daniel D.; Lynch, Dustin T.

2015-01-01

The Yellowcheek Darter (Etheostoma moorei) is a rare fish endemic to the Little Red River watershed in the Boston Mountains of northern Arkansas. Remaining populations of this species are geographically isolated and declining, and the species was listed in 2011 as federally endangered. Populations have declined, in part, due to intense seasonal stream drying and inundation of lower reaches by a reservoir. We used a kick seine sampling approach to examine distribution and abundance of Yellowcheek Darter populations in the Middle Fork and South Fork Little Red River. We used presence data to estimate occupancy rates and detection probability and examined relationships between Yellowcheek Darter density and environmental variables. The species was found at five Middle Fork and South Fork sites where it had previously been present in 2003–2004. Occupancy rates were >0.6 but with wide 95% CI, and where the darters occurred, densities were typical of other Ozark darters but highly variable. Detection probability and density were positively related to current velocity. Given that stream drying has become more extreme over the past 30 years and anthropogenic threats have increased, regular monitoring and active management may be required to reduce extinction risk of Yellowcheek Darter populations.

Annual precipitation in the Yellowstone National Park region since AD 1173

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gray, Stephen T.; Graumlich, Lisa J.; Betancourt, Julio L.

2007-01-01

Cores and cross sections from 133 limber pine (Pinus flexilis James) and Douglas fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirbel) Franco) at four sites were used to estimate annual (July to June) precipitation in the Yellowstone National Park region for the period from AD 1173 to 1998. Examination of the long-term record shows that the early 20th century was markedly wet compared to the previous 700 yr. Extreme wet and dry years within the instrumental period fall within the range of past variability, and the magnitude of the worst-case droughts of the 20th century (AD 1930s and 1950s) was likely equaled or exceeded on numerous occasions before AD 1900. Spectral analysis showed significant decadal to multidecadal precipitation variability. At times this lower frequency variability produces strong regime-like behavior in regional precipitation, with the potential for rapid, high-amplitude switching between predominately wet and predominately dry conditions. Over multiple time scales, strong Yellowstone region precipitation anomalies were almost always associated with spatially extensive events spanning various combinations of the central and southern U.S. Rockies, the northern U.S.-Southern Canadian Rockies and the Pacific Northwest.

Annual precipitation in the Yellowstone National Park region since AD 1173

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gray, S.T.; Graumlich, L.J.; Betancourt, J.L.

2007-01-01

Cores and cross sections from 133 limber pine (Pinus flexilis James) and Douglas fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirbel) Franco) at four sites were used to estimate annual (July to June) precipitation in the Yellowstone National Park region for the period from AD 1173 to 1998. Examination of the long-term record shows that the early 20th century was markedly wet compared to the previous 700??yr. Extreme wet and dry years within the instrumental period fall within the range of past variability, and the magnitude of the worst-case droughts of the 20th century (AD 1930s and 1950s) was likely equaled or exceeded on numerous occasions before AD 1900. Spectral analysis showed significant decadal to multidecadal precipitation variability. At times this lower frequency variability produces strong regime-like behavior in regional precipitation, with the potential for rapid, high-amplitude switching between predominately wet and predominately dry conditions. Over multiple time scales, strong Yellowstone region precipitation anomalies were almost always associated with spatially extensive events spanning various combinations of the central and southern U.S. Rockies, the northern U.S.-Southern Canadian Rockies and the Pacific Northwest. ?? 2007 University of Washington.

Dry patches in a flowing film : Predicting rewetting and the effects of inertia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lebon, Luc; Sebilleau, Julien; Limat, Laurent

2016-11-01

We study the effects of inertia on the shape and stability of dry patches using liquids of decreasing viscosities. These dry patches are formed when a liquid film flows down along a substrate under partial wetting conditions. They become stationary and exhibit an "arch" shape well described by a simple viscous model developed long ago by Podgorski. Surprisingly, this "arch" shape appears to be robust when one decreases the fluid viscosity which increases inertial effects, but the evolution of the apex curvature upon flow rate is strongly affected. We here proposed an improved description of the dry patch evolution taking into account several physical effects as the hydrostatic pressure in the liquid film, the curvature of the contact line, and these inertial effects. These ones affect both the mechanical equilibrium of the rim surrounding the dry patch and the flow inside the rim. This model allows us to show that the dry patch shape remains extremely close to the viscous -Podgorski- prediction but with a rescaling of the apex curvature. It also allows us to get a better prediction of the apex curvature dependence upon flow rate and a prediction of the rewetting threshold above which dry patches are swept away by the film flow.

The effect of rainfall and competition intensity on forest response to drought: lessons learned from a dry extreme.

PubMed

Dorman, Michael; Perevolotsky, Avi; Sarris, Dimitrios; Svoray, Tal

2015-04-01

We investigated forest responses to global warming by observing: (1) planted Pinus halepensis forests, (2) an aridity gradient-with annual precipitation (P) ranging from ~300 to ~700 mm, and (3) periods of wet and dry climate that included the driest period during at least the last 110 years. We examined: (1) how the length of climatic integration periods to which trees are most responsive varies in space and time, (2) the extent to which competition modulates growth decline during drought (2011) and subsequent recovery (2012) years. The temporal scale of rainfall that was most influential on growth shortened in progressing southward, and in the drier than in the wetter period. Long-term underground water storage, as reflected in the relationship of growth to multiple-year rainfall, remained significant up to the point where P ≈ 500 mm. Under drier conditions (P < 500 mm) in both space and time, influential rainfall scales shortened, probably reflecting a diminishing role of water storage. These drier locations are the first from which the species would be likely to retreat if global warming intensified. Competition appeared to set an upper limit to growth, while growth variation among individual trees increased as competition-intensity decreased. That upper limit increased in 2012 compared with 2011. The observed insensitivity of slow-growing trees to competition implies that mortality risk may be density independent, when even any potential for higher soil moisture availability in open stands is lost to evapotranspiration before it can benefit tree growth.

Mid-Holocene Drought in the Andes and Associated Impacts on Hydrology of the Amazon River

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Toledo, M. B.; Bush, M. B.; Figueiredo, A. G.

2007-05-01

Pollen, charcoal, and radiocarbon analyses were performed on a 2m-long sediment core obtained from Lake Tapera (coastal Amapa) to provide the paleoenvironmental history of this part of Amazonia. Detrended Correspondence Analysis was applied to the pollen data to improve visualization of sample distribution and similarity. The chronology was based on seven AMS radiocarbon dates, which allowed the establishment of a basal age (8,060 yrs BP) and identification of a sedimentary hiatus lasting 5,500 years (c. 7,100-1600 yrs BP) in Lake Tapera. Because the timing of the hiatus overlapped with the highest Holocene sea-level (5,000 yrs BP), which would have increased the local water table preventing the lake from drying out, it is clear that sea-level was not important in maintaining the lake level. As Lake Tapera apparently depended on riverine flood waters, the sedimentary gap was probably caused by reduced Amazon River discharge, due to an extremely dry period in the Andes (8,000-5,000 years BP), when precipitation levels markedly decreased. One of the impacts of this drought in the Andes was a c. 100m drop in Lake Titicaca water depth. The contrasting presence before and after the hiatus of Andean pollen (river transported) in the record of Lake Tapera supports this interpretation. The pollen analysis also shows that when sedimentation resumed in 1,620 cal. years BP, vegetation around the lake was changed from forest into savanna. This record demonstrates the need to improve our understanding of climate changes and the extent of their associated impacts on the environment.

Historical dominance of low-severity fire in dry and wet mixed-conifer forest habitats of the endangered terrestrial Jemez Mountains salamander (Plethodon neomexicanus)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Margolis, Ellis; Malevich, Steven B.

2016-01-01

Anthropogenic alteration of ecosystem processes confounds forest management and conservation of rare, declining species. Restoration of forest structure and fire hazard reduction are central goals of forest management policy in the western United States, but restoration priorities and treatments have become increasingly contentious. Numerous studies have documented changes in fire regimes, forest stand structure and species composition following a century of fire exclusion in dry, frequent-fire forests of the western U.S. (e.g., ponderosa pine and dry mixed-conifer). In contrast, wet mixed-conifer forests are thought to have historically burned infrequently with mixed- or high-severity fire—resulting in reduced impacts from fire exclusion and low restoration need—but data are limited. In this study we quantified the current forest habitat of the federally endangered, terrestrial Jemez Mountains salamander (Plethodon neomexicanus) and compared it to dendroecological reconstructions of historical habitat (e.g., stand structure and composition), and fire regime parameters along a gradient from upper ponderosa pine to wet mixed-conifer forests. We found that current fire-free intervals in Jemez Mountains salamander habitat (116–165 years) are significantly longer than historical intervals, even in wet mixed-conifer forests. Historical mean fire intervals ranged from 10 to 42 years along the forest gradient. Low-severity fires were historically dominant across all forest types (92 of 102 fires). Although some mixed- or highseverity fire historically occurred at 67% of the plots over the last four centuries, complete mortality within 1.0 ha plots was rare, and asynchronous within and among sites. Climate was an important driver of temporal variability in fire severity, such that mixed- and high-severity fires were associated with more extreme drought than low-severity fires. Tree density in dry conifer forests historically ranged from open (90 trees/ha) to moderately dense (400 trees/ha), but has doubled on average since fire exclusion. Infill of fire-sensitive tree species has contributed to the conversion of historically dry mixedconifer to wet mixed-conifer forest. We conclude that low-severity fire, which has been absent for over a century, was a critical ecosystem process across the forest gradient in Jemez Mountains salamander habitat, and thus is an important element of ecosystem restoration, resilience, and rare species recovery.

Record-breaking warming and extreme drought in the Amazon rainforest during the course of El Niño 2015–2016

PubMed Central

Jiménez-Muñoz, Juan C.; Mattar, Cristian; Barichivich, Jonathan; Santamaría-Artigas, Andrés; Takahashi, Ken; Malhi, Yadvinder; Sobrino, José A.; Schrier, Gerard van der

2016-01-01

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the main driver of interannual climate extremes in Amazonia and other tropical regions. The current 2015/2016 EN event was expected to be as strong as the EN of the century in 1997/98, with extreme heat and drought over most of Amazonian rainforests. Here we show that this protracted EN event, combined with the regional warming trend, was associated with unprecedented warming and a larger extent of extreme drought in Amazonia compared to the earlier strong EN events in 1982/83 and 1997/98. Typical EN-like drought conditions were observed only in eastern Amazonia, whilst in western Amazonia there was an unusual wetting. We attribute this wet-dry dipole to the location of the maximum sea surface warming on the Central equatorial Pacific. The impacts of this climate extreme on the rainforest ecosystems remain to be documented and are likely to be different to previous strong EN events. PMID:27604976

Record-breaking warming and extreme drought in the Amazon rainforest during the course of El Niño 2015-2016

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiménez-Muñoz, Juan C.; Mattar, Cristian; Barichivich, Jonathan; Santamaría-Artigas, Andrés; Takahashi, Ken; Malhi, Yadvinder; Sobrino, José A.; Schrier, Gerard Van Der

2016-09-01

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the main driver of interannual climate extremes in Amazonia and other tropical regions. The current 2015/2016 EN event was expected to be as strong as the EN of the century in 1997/98, with extreme heat and drought over most of Amazonian rainforests. Here we show that this protracted EN event, combined with the regional warming trend, was associated with unprecedented warming and a larger extent of extreme drought in Amazonia compared to the earlier strong EN events in 1982/83 and 1997/98. Typical EN-like drought conditions were observed only in eastern Amazonia, whilst in western Amazonia there was an unusual wetting. We attribute this wet-dry dipole to the location of the maximum sea surface warming on the Central equatorial Pacific. The impacts of this climate extreme on the rainforest ecosystems remain to be documented and are likely to be different to previous strong EN events.

Record-breaking warming and extreme drought in the Amazon rainforest during the course of El Niño 2015-2016.

PubMed

Jiménez-Muñoz, Juan C; Mattar, Cristian; Barichivich, Jonathan; Santamaría-Artigas, Andrés; Takahashi, Ken; Malhi, Yadvinder; Sobrino, José A; Schrier, Gerard van der

2016-09-08

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the main driver of interannual climate extremes in Amazonia and other tropical regions. The current 2015/2016 EN event was expected to be as strong as the EN of the century in 1997/98, with extreme heat and drought over most of Amazonian rainforests. Here we show that this protracted EN event, combined with the regional warming trend, was associated with unprecedented warming and a larger extent of extreme drought in Amazonia compared to the earlier strong EN events in 1982/83 and 1997/98. Typical EN-like drought conditions were observed only in eastern Amazonia, whilst in western Amazonia there was an unusual wetting. We attribute this wet-dry dipole to the location of the maximum sea surface warming on the Central equatorial Pacific. The impacts of this climate extreme on the rainforest ecosystems remain to be documented and are likely to be different to previous strong EN events.

HYDROLOGY AND LANDSCAPE CONNECTIVITY OF VERNAL POOLS OF THE GLACIATED NORTHEAST

EPA Science Inventory

The hydrologic budget of a vernal pool influences many aspects of pool function and is the basis for pool life. Although alternating wet and dry periods occur in most wetlands, vernal pools can experience extreme moisture fluctuations. This variability results from intra- and i...

Extreme biology: probing life at low water contents and temperatures

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Germplasm that is dried or cryopreserved appears quiescent. However, changes occur in preserved germplasm, albeit slowly. Viability time courses follow a sigmoidal curve where there is a lag phase when changes can’t be detected, followed by a period of rapid mortality. Predicting longevity under...

Does Parmelina tiliacea lichen photosystem II survive at liquid nitrogen temperatures?

PubMed

Oukarroum, Abdallah; El Gharous, Mohamed; Strasser, Reto J

2017-02-01

Parmelina tiliacea lichens kept in the wet and dry state were stored in liquid nitrogen for 1 week and the subsequent recovery of their photosynthetic apparatus was followed. The chlorophyll a fluorescence rise and the maximum quantum yield of primary photochemistry φ Po (F V /F M ) were analysed for this purpose. Storage of wet thalli for 1 week in liquid nitrogen led to an impairment of photosystem II and probably the photosynthetic apparatus as a whole, from which the thalli did not recover over time. Thalli exposed in the dry state thalli were far less affected by the treatment and recovered well. These results indicate that the thalli are extremely tolerant to liquid nitrogen temperatures only in the dry state. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Xeropreservation of Functionalized Lipid Biomarkers in Hyperarid Soils in the Atacama Desert

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilhelm, Mary Beth; Davila, Alfonso F.; Eigenbrode, Jennifer L.; Parenteau, Mary N.; Jahnke, Linda L.; Liu, Xiao-Lei; Summons, Rogers E.; Wray, James J.; Stamos, Brian N.; O'Reilly, Shane S.;

Diet, nutraceuticals and the tear film.

PubMed

Jalbert, Isabelle

2013-12-01

Nutrition disorders and their correlates such as obesity are increasingly prevalent worldwide. A number of studies to date have suggested numerous potential associations between diet and tear film health; this paper will provide a summary of the available literature. The tear film is characterized through its protein and lipid content and through clinical measurements of characteristics such as osmolarity, volume and stability. Malnutrition, protein and vitamin-A deficiencies are extremely deleterious to tear film health and supplementation with oral vitamin A in this setting is of clear benefit. The relative impact of diet on tear film within what would be considered normal ranges of consumption is less clear. A number of population studies have suggested that hyperlipidemia and a diet low in omega-3 fatty acids are risks factor for dry eye disease. Numerous studies have investigated the effectiveness of oral supplementation with antioxidants, omega-3 (e.g. fish oil and linseed oil) and omega-6 (e.g. evening primrose oil) fatty acids in the last 10 years. Taken together, these suggest a small benefit of oral supplementation on tear film volume, stability and decreased ocular symptoms in patients previously diagnosed with diseases involving the ocular surface (e.g. Sjögren's syndrome, meibomian gland dysfunction, dry eye disease) and contact lens wearers suffering from dry eye. More research is required to determine the exact composition, dosage and indications for their use and to fully characterize how these nutraceuticals modulate the tear film. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Xeropreservation of functionalized lipid biomarkers in hyperarid soils in the Atacama Desert

PubMed Central

Wilhelm, Mary Beth; Davila, Alfonso F.; Eigenbrode, Jennifer L.; Parenteau, Mary N.; Jahnke, Linda L.; Liu, Xiao-Lei; Summons, Roger E.; Wray, James J.; Stamos, Brian N.; O’Reilly, Shane S.; Williams, Amy

2018-01-01

Our understanding of long-term organic matter preservation comes mostly from studies in aquatic systems. In contrast, taphonomic processes in extremely dry environments are relatively understudied and are poorly understood. We investigated the accumulation and preservation of lipid biomarkers in hyperarid soils in the Yungay region of the Atacama Desert. Lipids from seven soil horizons in a 2.5 m vertical profile were extracted and analyzed using GC-MS and LC-MS. Diagnostic functionalized lipids and geolipids were detected and increased in abundance and diversity with depth. Deeper clay units contain fossil organic matter (radiocarbon dead) that has been protected from rainwater since the onset of hyperaridity. We show that these clay units contain lipids in an excellent state of structural preservation with functional groups and unsaturated bonds in carbon chains. This indicates that minimal degradation of lipids has occurred in these soils since the time of their deposition between >40,000 and 2 million years ago. The exceptional structural preservation of biomarkers is likely due to the long-term hyperaridity that has minimized microbial and enzymatic activity, a taphonomic process we term xeropreservation (i.e. preservation by drying). The degree of biomarker preservation allowed us to reconstruct major changes in ecology in the Yungay region that reflect a shift in hydrological regime from wet to dry since the early Quaternary. Our results suggest that hyperarid environments, which comprise 7.5% of the continental landmass, could represent a rich and relatively unexplored source of paleobiological information on Earth. PMID:29743757

New families of carbon gels based on natural resources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Szczurek, Andrzej; Amaral-Labat, Gisele; Fierro, Vanessa; Pizzi, Antonio; Celzard, Alain

2013-03-01

Carbon gels are versatile materials which can be used for many applications. They are extremely expensive, because generally prepared from resorcinol - formaldehyde (RF) resins first gelled and next dried with supercritical carbon dioxide. In the present work, resorcinol has been substituted partly or completely by tannins, a family of molecules extracted from mimosa tree barks. Tannins are natural, non-toxic products, typically thirty times cheaper than resorcinol. Their chemical resemblance with the latter makes them be often called natural resorcinol. Using tannins not only substantially decreases the cost but also allows preparing materials in a much wider range of pHs than that usually employed for RF gels. Consequently the main pore size and the fraction of given families of pores, controlling the carbon gels' properties, are tuned in an easier way, and a much wider range of pore structures is obtained. Finally, two alternative ways of drying are suggested for further decreasing the cost: freeze-drying and supercritical drying in acetone. Both are shown to lead, in some conditions described below, to materials having similar characteristics to those of expensive RF carbon aerogels previously dried in supercritical CO2.

Trojan particles: Large porous carriers of nanoparticles for drug delivery

PubMed Central

Tsapis, N.; Bennett, D.; Jackson, B.; Weitz, D. A.; Edwards, D. A.

2002-01-01

We have combined the drug release and delivery potential of nanoparticle (NP) systems with the ease of flow, processing, and aerosolization potential of large porous particle (LPP) systems by spray drying solutions of polymeric and nonpolymeric NPs into extremely thin-walled macroscale structures. These hybrid LPPs exhibit much better flow and aerosolization properties than the NPs; yet, unlike the LPPs, which dissolve in physiological conditions to produce molecular constituents, the hybrid LPPs dissolve to produce NPs, with the drug release and delivery advantages associated with NP delivery systems. Formation of the large porous NP (LPNP) aggregates occurs via a spray-drying process that ensures the drying time of the sprayed droplet is sufficiently shorter than the characteristic time for redistribution of NPs by diffusion within the drying droplet, implying a local Peclet number much greater than unity. Additional control over LPNPs physical characteristics is achieved by adding other components to the spray-dried solutions, including sugars, lipids, polymers, and proteins. The ability to produce LPNPs appears to be largely independent of molecular component type as well as the size or chemical nature of the NPs. PMID:12200546

Dry deposition of gaseous oxidized mercury in Western Maryland.

PubMed

Castro, Mark S; Moore, Chris; Sherwell, John; Brooks, Steve B

2012-02-15

The purpose of this study was to directly measure the dry deposition of gaseous oxidized mercury (GOM) in western Maryland. Annual estimates were made using passive ion-exchange surrogate surfaces and a resistance model. Surrogate surfaces were deployed for seventeen weekly sampling periods between September 2009 and October 2010. Dry deposition rates from surrogate surfaces ranged from 80 to 1512 pgm(-2)h(-1). GOM dry deposition rates were strongly correlated (r(2)=0.75) with the weekly average atmospheric GOM concentrations, which ranged from 2.3 to 34.1 pgm(-3). Dry deposition of GOM could be predicted from the ambient air concentrations of GOM using this equation: GOM dry deposition (pgm(-2)h(-1))=43.2 × GOM concentration-80.3. Dry deposition velocities computed using GOM concentrations and surrogate surface GOM dry deposition rates, ranged from 0.2 to 1.7 cms(-1). Modeled dry deposition rates were highly correlated (r(2)=0.80) with surrogate surface dry deposition rates. Using the overall weekly average surrogate surface dry deposition rate (369 ± 340 pg m(-2)h(-1)), we estimated an annual GOM dry deposition rate of 3.2 μg m(-2)year(-1). Using the resistance model, we estimated an annual GOM dry deposition rate of 3.5 μg m(-2)year(-1). Our annual GOM dry deposition rates were similar to the dry deposition (3.3 μg m(-2)h(-1)) of gaseous elemental mercury (GEM) at our site. In addition, annual GOM dry deposition was approximately 1/2 of the average annual wet deposition of total mercury (7.7 ± 1.9 μg m(-2)year(-1)) at our site. Total annual mercury deposition from dry deposition of GOM and GEM and wet deposition was approximately 14.4 μg m(-2)year(-1), which was similar to the average annual litterfall deposition (15 ± 2.1 μg m(-2)year(-1)) of mercury, which was also measured at our site. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Applying complex networks to evaluate precipitation patterns over South America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ciemer, Catrin; Boers, Niklas; Barbosa, Henrique; Kurths, Jürgen; Rammig, Anja

2016-04-01

The climate of South America exhibits pronounced differences between the wet- and the dry-season, which are accompanied by specific synoptic events like changes in the location of the South American Low Level Jet (SALLJ) and the establishment of the South American Convergence Zone (SACZ). The onset of these events can be related to the presence of typical large-scale precipitation patterns over South America, as previous studies have shown[1,2]. The application of complex network methods to precipitation data recently received increased scientific attention for the special case of extreme events, as it is possible with such methods to analyze the spatiotemporal correlation structure as well as possible teleconnections of these events[3,4]. In these approaches the correlation between precipitation datasets is calculated by means of Event Synchronization which restricts their applicability to extreme precipitation events. In this work, we propose a method which is able to consider not only extreme precipitation but complete time series. A direct application of standard similarity measures in order to correlate precipitation time series is impossible due to their intricate statistical properties as the large amount of zeros. Therefore, we introduced and evaluated a suitable modification of Pearson's correlation coefficient to construct spatial correlation networks of precipitation. By analyzing the characteristics of spatial correlation networks constructed on the basis of this new measure, we are able to determine coherent areas of similar precipitation patterns, spot teleconnections of correlated areas, and detect central regions for precipitation correlation. By analyzing the change of the network over the year[5], we are also able to determine local and global changes in precipitation correlation patterns. Additionally, global network characteristics as the network connectivity yield indications for beginning and end of wet- and dry season. In order to identify large-scale synoptic events like the SACZ and SALLJ onset, detecting the changes of correlation over time between certain regions is of significant relevance. [1] Nieto-Ferreira et al. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society (2011) [2] Vera et al. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (2006) [3] Quiroga et al. Physical review E (2002) [4] Boers et al. nature communications (2014) [5] Radebach et al. Physical review E (2013)

Ectodermal Dysplasia Associated with Sickle Cell Disease

PubMed Central

Volpato, Luiz Evaristo Ricci; Volpato, Maria Carmen Palma Faria; de Carvalhosa, Artur Aburad; Palma, Vinicius Canavarros; Borges, Álvaro Henrique

2014-01-01

Ectodermal dysplasia and sickle cell anaemia are inherited disorders that affect, respectively, the tissues derived from the embryonic ectoderm and the production of erythrocytes by the bone marrow. The simultaneous occurrence of both disorders is extremely rare. This is a case of both ectodermal dysplasia and sickle cell anaemia reported in a 6-year-old. The patient had been diagnosed with sickle cell anaemia for only six months when he sought treatment presenting with the following: hypotrichosis, dry skin, periocular hyperpigmentation, protruding lips, hypodontia, and morphologically altered teeth. The clinical features combined with his medical history led to the diagnosis of ectodermal dysplasia. Dentists should be prepared to recognise patterns that escape normality to aid in the diagnosis of systemic changes, even in patients with other previous diagnoses. PMID:25343049

Low Evapotranspiration Enhances the Resilience of Peatland Carbon Stocks to Fire

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kettridge, N.; Lukenbach, M. C.; Hokanson, K. J.; Hopkinson, C.; Devito, K. J.; Petrone, R. M.; Mendoza, C. A.; Waddington, J. M.

2017-09-01

Boreal peatlands may be vulnerable to projected changes in the wildfire regime under future climates. Extreme drying during the sensitive postfire period may exceed peatland ecohydrological resilience, triggering long-term degradation of these globally significant carbon stocks. Despite these concerns, we show low peatland evapotranspiration at both the plot- and landscape-scale postfire, in water-limited peatlands dominated by feather moss that are ubiquitous across continental western Canada. Low postfire evapotranspiration enhances the resilience of carbon stocks in such peatlands to wildfire disturbance and reinforces their function as a regional source of water. Near-surface water repellency may provide an important, previously unexplored, regulator of peatland evapotranspiration that can induce low evapotranspiration in the initial postfire years by restricting the supply of water to the peat surface.

Seismic Landslide Hazard for the Cities of Oakland and Piedmont, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Miles, Scott B.; Keefer, David K.

2001-01-01

This map describes the possible hazard from earthquake-induced landslides for the cities of Oakland and Piedmont, CA. The hazard depicted by this map was modeled for a scenario corresponding to an M=7.1 earthquake on the Hayward, CA fault. This scenario magnitude is associated with complete rupture of the northern and southern segments of the Hayward fault, an event that has an estimated return period of about 500 years. The modeled hazard also corresponds to completely saturated ground-water conditions resulting from an extreme storm event or series of storm events. This combination of earthquake and ground-water scenarios represents a particularly severe state of hazard for earthquake-induced landslides. For dry ground-water conditions, overall hazard will be less, while relative patterns of hazard are likely to change.

Cocoa agroforestry is less resilient to sub-optimal and extreme climate than cocoa in full sun.

PubMed

Abdulai, Issaka; Vaast, Philippe; Hoffmann, Munir P; Asare, Richard; Jassogne, Laurence; Van Asten, Piet; Rötter, Reimund P; Graefe, Sophie

2018-01-01

Cocoa agroforestry is perceived as potential adaptation strategy to sub-optimal or adverse environmental conditions such as drought. We tested this strategy over wet, dry and extremely dry periods comparing cocoa in full sun with agroforestry systems: shaded by (i) a leguminous tree species, Albizia ferruginea and (ii) Antiaris toxicaria, the most common shade tree species in the region. We monitored micro-climate, sap flux density, throughfall, and soil water content from November 2014 to March 2016 at the forest-savannah transition zone of Ghana with climate and drought events during the study period serving as proxy for projected future climatic conditions in marginal cocoa cultivation areas of West Africa. Combined transpiration of cocoa and shade trees was significantly higher than cocoa in full sun during wet and dry periods. During wet period, transpiration rate of cocoa plants shaded by A. ferruginea was significantly lower than cocoa under A. toxicaria and full sun. During the extreme drought of 2015/16, all cocoa plants under A. ferruginea died. Cocoa plants under A. toxicaria suffered 77% mortality and massive stress with significantly reduced sap flux density of 115 g cm -2  day -1 , whereas cocoa in full sun maintained higher sap flux density of 170 g cm -2  day -1 . Moreover, cocoa sap flux recovery after the extreme drought was significantly higher in full sun (163 g cm -2  day -1 ) than under A. toxicaria (37 g cm -2  day -1 ). Soil water content in full sun was higher than in shaded systems suggesting that cocoa mortality in the shaded systems was linked to strong competition for soil water. The present results have major implications for cocoa cultivation under climate change. Promoting shade cocoa agroforestry as drought resilient system especially under climate change needs to be carefully reconsidered as shade tree species such as the recommended leguminous A. ferruginea constitute major risk to cocoa functioning under extended severe drought. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Possible impacts of the pre-monsoon dry line and sea breeze front on nocturnal rainfall over northeast Bangladesh

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stiller-Reeve, Mathew; Toniazzo, Thomas; Kolstad, Erik; Spengler, Thomas

2017-04-01

The northeast region of Bangladesh receives a large amount of rainfall before the large-scale monsoon circulation begins. For example, in April (a "pre-monsoon" month) 2010, 804 mm of rain fell in the regional capital Sylhet. It was the second wettest month of the entire year. From our conversations with the local people, we know that this pre-monsoon rainfall is extremely important to their livelihoods. We therefore need to understand it's triggering mechanisms. Several theories have been published, all of which are likely to be at play. However, in this work we look more closely at how the sea breeze front and prominent pre-monsoonal dry line in this region may play a role. If these mechanisms play a role in the convection, then it is likely that they trigger convection further afield, and then the resulting systems then propagate towards northeast Bangladesh. We believe this because rainfall associated with dry line/sea-breeze front convection often occurs during the late afternoon, but the rainfall over northeast Bangladesh shows a clear late-night/early-morning maxima. At present, the temporal and spatial resolution of the regional observations is inappropriate for examining these possible mechanisms. We therefore use a numerical model (WRF) to investigate the possible links between the convection and the sea breeze front and dry line. We use April 2010 as a case study since it was such a wet pre-monsoon month. The simulation shows that a sea breeze circulation often develops during the day in the coastal zone of Bangladesh and northeast India. After sunset the sea breeze front propagates inland pushing back the hot, dry air over India. On several days during the simulation, convection is triggered along the sea breeze front, which then propagates towards northeast Bangladesh and intensifies across the topography surrounding the Sylhet region. From our simulations, it appears that nocturnal convection over northeast Bangladesh is triggered by several mechanisms, but that the dry line and sea breeze front could also be an active contributor.

Expression of functional traits during seedling establishment in two populations of Pinus ponderosa from contrasting climates.

PubMed

Kerr, Kelly L; Meinzer, Frederick C; McCulloh, Katherine A; Woodruff, David R; Marias, Danielle E

2015-05-01

First-year tree seedlings represent a particularly vulnerable life stage and successful seedling establishment is crucial for forest regeneration. We investigated the extent to which Pinus ponderosa P. & C. Lawson populations from different climate zones exhibit differential expression of functional traits that may facilitate their establishment. Seeds from two populations from sites with contrasting precipitation and temperature regimes east (PIPO dry) and west (PIPO mesic) of the Oregon Cascade mountains were sown in a common garden experiment and grown under two water availability treatments (control and drought). Aboveground biomass accumulation, vegetative phenology, xylem anatomy, plant hydraulic architecture, foliar stable carbon isotope ratios (δ(13)C), gas exchange and leaf water relations characteristics were measured. No treatment or population-related differences in leaf water potential were detected. At the end of the first growing season, aboveground biomass was 74 and 44% greater in PIPO mesic in the control and drought treatments, respectively. By early October, 73% of PIPO dry seedlings had formed dormant buds compared with only 15% of PIPO mesic seedlings. Stem theoretical specific conductivity, calculated from tracheid dimensions and packing density, declined from June through September and was nearly twice as high in PIPO mesic during most of the growing season, consistent with measured values of specific conductivity. Intrinsic water-use efficiency based on δ(13)C values was higher in PIPO dry seedlings for both treatments across all sampling dates. There was a negative relationship between values of δ(13)C and leaf-specific hydraulic conductivity across populations and treatments, consistent with greater stomatal constraints on gas exchange with declining seedling hydraulic capacity. Integrated growing season assimilation and stomatal conductance estimated from foliar δ(13)C values and photosynthetic CO2-response curves were 6 and 28% lower, respectively, in PIPO dry seedlings. Leaf water potential at the turgor loss point was 0.33 MPa more negative in PIPO dry, independent of treatment. Overall, PIPO dry seedlings exhibited more conservative behavior, suggesting reduced growth is traded off for increased resistance to drought and extreme temperatures. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Variability and trends in dry day frequency and dry event length in the southwestern United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

McCabe, Gregory J.; Legates, David R.; Lins, Harry F.

2010-01-01

Daily precipitation from 22 National Weather Service first-order weather stations in the southwestern United States for water years 1951 through 2006 are used to examine variability and trends in the frequency of dry days and dry event length. Dry events with minimum thresholds of 10 and 20 consecutive days of precipitation with less than 2.54 mm are analyzed. For water years and cool seasons (October through March), most sites indicate negative trends in dry event length (i.e., dry event durations are becoming shorter). For the warm season (April through September), most sites also indicate negative trends; however, more sites indicate positive trends in dry event length for the warm season than for water years or cool seasons. The larger number of sites indicating positive trends in dry event length during the warm season is due to a series of dry warm seasons near the end of the 20th century and the beginning of the 21st century. Overall, a large portion of the variability in dry event length is attributable to variability of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, especially for water years and cool seasons. Our results are consistent with analyses of trends in discharge for sites in the southwestern United States, an increased frequency in El Niño events, and positive trends in precipitation in the southwestern United States.

Intensification of hot extremes in the United States

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Diffenbaugh, Noah; Ashfaq, Moetasim

Governments are currently considering policies that will limit greenhouse gas concentrations, including negotiation of an international treaty to replace the expiring Kyoto Protocol. Existing mitigation targets have arisen primarily from political negotiations, and the ability of such policies to avoid dangerous impacts is still uncertain. Using a large suite of climate model experiments, we find that substantial intensification of hot extremes could occur within the next 3 decades, below the 2 C global warming target currently being considered by policy makers. We also find that the intensification of hot extremes is associated with a shift towards more anticyclonic atmospheric circulationmore » during the warm season, along with warm-season drying over much of the U.S. The possibility that intensification of hot extremes could result from relatively small increases in greenhouse gas concentrations suggests that constraining global warming to 2 C may not be sufficient to avoid dangerous climate change.« less

Evapotranspiration response to multi-year dry periods in the semi-arid western United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rungee, J. P., II; Bales, R. C.

2017-12-01

Analysis of measured evapotranspiration shows multi-year regolith water storage can support evapotranspiration for years into a multi-year dry period. Measurements at 25 flux-tower sites in the semi-arid western United States, distributed across five primary land-cover types, show both resilience and vulnerability to multi-year dry periods. Average evapotranspiration ranged from about 700+200 mm per water year (October-September) in evergreen needleleaf forests to 350+150 mm per water year in grasslands and open shrublands. On average, in California's Mediterranean climate almost half of the water-year evapotranspiration is supported by seasonal and/or multi-year regolith water storage, compared to a characteristic 20 to 30 percent value of energy-limited and inland sites. Below 35oN latitude, water-year evapotranspiration exceeded estimated precipitation in over half of the years on record. For non-energy-limited sites, water-year evapotranspiration increased with precipitation up to a maximum water-year evapotranspiration value of about 900, 750, 600, 425 and 300 mm per water year for evergreen needleleaf forests, mixed forests, woody savannas, grasslands and open shrublands, respectively. There were 15 multi-year dry periods on record that exhibited either an attenuation in evapotranspiration, defined as an annual value below 80% of the wet-year average, or withdrawal from multi-year storage. A multi-year dry period was defined as three or more consecutive water years in which all water-year precipitation values and the mean period value were in the lower 50 and 35 percent of the historical record, respectively. For sites exhibiting evapotranspiration attenuation, resistance to multi-year dry periods ranged from 9 to 49 months, drafting as much as 444 mm of regolith storage. At some mountain sites regolith storage provided up to 678 mm, almost the equivalent of the average water-year evapotranspiration for these sites, over the extent of the multi-year dry period.

[Effects of post-harvest processing and extraction methods on polysaccharides content of Dendrobium officinale].

PubMed

Li, Cong; Ning, Li-Dan; Si, Jin-Ping; Wu, Ling-Shang; Liu, Jing-Jing; Song, Xian-Shui; Yu, Qiao-Xian

2013-02-01

To reveal the quality variation of polysaccharide in Dendrobium officinale by post-harvest processing and extraction methods, and provide a basis for post-harvest processing and clinical and hygienical applications of Tiepifengdou (Dendrobii Officinalis Caulis). The content of polysaccharides were studied by 4 post-harvest processing methods, i. e. drying by drying closet, drying after scalding by boiling water, drying while twisting, and drying while twisting after scalding by boiling water. And a series of temperatures were set in each processing procedure. An orthogonal test L9 (3(4)) with crushed degrees, solid-liquid ratio, extraction time and extraction times as factors were designed to analyze the dissolution rate of polysaccharides in Tiepifengdou processed by drying while twisting at 80 degrees C. The content of polysaccharides was ranged from 26.59% to 32.70% in different samples processed by different processing methods, among which drying while twisting at 80 degrees C and 100 degrees C respectively were the best. Crushed degree was the most important influence on the dissolution rate of polysaccharides. The dissolution rate of polysaccharides was extremely low when the sample was boiled directly without crushing and sieving. Drying while twisting at 80 degrees C was the best post-harvest processing method, which can help to dry the fresh herbs and improve the accumulation of polysaccharides. Boiling the uncrushed Tiepifengdou for a long time as traditional method could not fully extract polysaccharides, while boiling the crushed Tiepifengdou can efficiently extract polysaccharides.

Changes in duration of dry and wet spells associated with air temperatures in Russia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ye, Hengchun

2018-03-01

This study uses daily precipitation records from 517 Russian stations (1966-2010) to examine the relationships between continuous dry and wet day duration and surface air temperature for all four seasons. The study found that both mean and extreme durations of dry periods increase with air temperature at about 7.0% (0.24 day/°C) and 7.7% (0.86 day/°C) respectively, while those of wet periods decrease at about 1.3% (-0.02 day/°C) and 2.2% (-0.10 day/°C) respectively averaged over the entire study region during summer. An increase in the duration of dry periods with higher air temperature is also found in other seasons at locations with a mean seasonal air temperature of about -5 °C or higher. Opposite relationships of shorter durations of dry periods and longer wet periods associated with higher air temperature are observed over the northern part of the study region in winter. The changes in durations of both dry and wet periods have significant correlations with the changes in total dry and wet days but are about 2.5 times higher for dry periods and 0.5 times lower for wet periods. The study also found that locations with longer durations of dry periods experience faster rates of increase in air temperature, suggesting the likelihood of exacerbating drought severity in drier and/or warmer locations for all seasons.

Microwave emission and crop residues

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jackson, Thomas J.; O'Neill, Peggy E.

1991-01-01

A series of controlled experiments were conducted to determine the significance of crop residues or stubble in estimating the emission of the underlying soil. Observations using truck-mounted L and C band passive microwave radiometers showed that for dry wheat and soybeans the dry residue caused negligible attenuation of the background emission. Green residues, with water contents typical of standing crops, did have a significant effect on the background emission. Results for these green residues also indicated that extremes in plant structure, as created using parallel and perpendicular stalk orientations, can cause very large differences in the degree of attenuation.

Seasonal and Interannual Trends in Largest Cholera Endemic Megacity: Water Sustainability - Climate - Health Challenges in Dhaka, Bangladesh

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akanda, Ali S.; Jutla, Antarpreet; Faruque, Abu S. G.; Huq, Anwar; Colwell, Rita R.

2014-05-01

The last three decades of surveillance data shows a drastic increase of cholera prevalence in the largest cholera-endemic city in the world - Dhaka, Bangladesh. Emerging megacities in the region, especially those located in coastal areas also remain vulnerable to large scale drivers of cholera outbreaks. However, there has not been any systematic study on linking long-term disease trends with related changes in natural or societal variables. Here, we analyze the 30-year dynamics of urban cholera prevalence in Dhaka with changes in climatic or anthropogenic forcings: regional hydrology, flooding, water usage, changes in distribution systems, population growth and density in urban settlements, as well as shifting climate patterns and frequency of natural disasters. An interesting change is observed in the seasonal trends of cholera prevalence; while an endemic upward trend is seen in the dry season, the post-monsoon trend is epidemic in nature. In addition, the trend in the pre-monsoon dry season is significantly stronger than the post-monsoon wet season; and thus spring is becoming the dominant cholera season of the year. Evidence points to growing urbanization and rising population in unplanned settlements along the city peripheries. The rapid pressure of growth has led to an unsustainable and potentially disastrous situation with negligible-to-poor water and sanitation systems compounded by changing climatic patterns and increasing number of extreme weather events. Growing water scarcity in the dry season and lack of sustainable water and sanitation infrastructure for urban settlements have increased endemicity of cholera outbreaks in spring, while record flood events and prolonged post-monsoon inundation have contributed to increased epidemic outbreaks in fall. We analyze our findings with the World Health Organization recommended guidelines and investigate large scale water sustainability challenges in the context of climatic and anthropogenic changes in the region. Our findings may prove to be useful in both water sustainability and disaster management perspectives as the dry and wet seasonal trends are affecting both endemic and epidemic outbreaks, respectively, and are influenced by distinctly different seasonal and interannual drivers.

Effects of extreme rainfall events on the distribution of selected emerging contaminants in surface and groundwater: The Guadalete River basin (SW, Spain).

PubMed

Corada-Fernández, Carmen; Candela, Lucila; Torres-Fuentes, Nivis; Pintado-Herrera, Marina G; Paniw, Maria; González-Mazo, Eduardo

2017-12-15

This study is focused on the Guadalete River basin (SW, Spain), where extreme weather conditions have become common, with and alternation between periods of drought and extreme rainfall events. Combined sewer overflows (CSOs) occur when heavy rainfall events exceed the capacity of the wastewater treatment plants (WWTP), as well as pollution episodes in parts of the basin due to uncontrolled sewage spills and the use of reclaimed water and sludge from the local WWTP. The sampling was carried out along two seasons and three campaigns during dry (March 2007) and extreme rainfall (April and December 2010) in the Guadalete River, alluvial aquifer and Jerez de la Frontera aquifer. Results showed minimum concentrations for synthetic surfactants in groundwater (<37.4μg·L -1 ) during the first campaign (dry weather conditions), whereas groundwater contaminants increased in December 2010 as the heavy rainfall caused the river to overflow. In surface water, surfactant concentrations showed similar trends to groundwater observations. In addition to surfactants, pharmaceuticals and personal care products (PPCPs) were analyzed in the third campaign, 22 of which were detected in surface waters. Two fragrances (OTNE and galaxolide) and one analgesic/anti-inflammatory (ibuprofen) were the most abundant PPCPs (up to 6540, 2748 and 1747ng·L -1 , respectively). Regarding groundwater, most PPCPs were detected in Jerez de la Frontera aquifer, where a synthetic fragrance (OTNE) was predominant (up to 1285ng·L -1 ). Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The role of local heating in the 2015 Indian heat wave

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

India faced a major heat wave during the summer of 2015. Temperature anomalies peaked in the dry period before the onset of the summer monsoon, suggesting that local land-atmosphere feedbacks involving desiccated soils and vegetation might have played a role in driving the heat extreme. Upon examina...

Antioxidant capacities and anti-inflammatory effects of flavonoid compounds isolated from acai pulp (Euterpe oleracea Mart.)

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Acai fruit (Euterpe oleracea Mart.) has been demonstrated to exhibit extremely high antioxidant capacity. Seven major flavonoids were isolated from freeze-dried acai pulp by various chromatographic methods. Their structures were elucidated as orientin (1), homoorientin (2), vitexin (3), luteolin (4)...

Antioxidant capacities of seven flavonoid compounds isolated from pulp of acai fruit (Euterpe oleracea)

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The pulp of açai fruit (Euterpe oleracea Mart.) has been demonstrated to exhibit extremely high antioxidant capacity. Seven major flavonoids were isolated from freeze-dried acai pulp by various chromatographic methods. Their structures were elucidated as orientin (1), homoorientin (2), vitexin (3), ...

Recovery of EUVL substrates

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Vernon, S.P.; Baker, S.L.

1995-01-19

Mo/Si multilayers, were removed from superpolished zerodur and fused silica substrates with a dry etching process that, under suitable processing conditions, produces negligible change in either the substrate surface figure or surface roughness. Full recovery of the initial normal incidence extreme ultra-violet (EUV) reflectance response has been demonstrated on reprocessed substrates.

The Effects of Plastic Film Mulching on Maize Growth and Water Use in Dry and Rainy Years in Northeast China

PubMed Central

Xu, Jie; Li, Congfeng; Liu, Huitao; Zhou, Peilu; Tao, Zhiqiang; Wang, Pu; Meng, Qingfeng; Zhao, Ming

2015-01-01

Plastic film mulching (PM) has been widely used to improve maize (Zea mays L.) yields and water use efficiency (WUE) in Northeast China, but the effects of PM in a changing climate characterized by highly variable precipitation are not well understood. Six site-year field experiments were conducted in the dry and rainy years to investigate the effects of PM on maize growth, grain yield, and WUE in Northeast China. Compared to crops grown without PM treatment (control, CK), PM significantly increased the grain yield by 15-26% in the dry years, but no significant yield increase was observed in the rainy years. Yield increase in the dry years was mainly due to a large increase in dry matter accumulation pre-silking compared to the CK, which resulted from a greater dry matter accumulation rate due to the higher topsoil temperature and water content. As a result, the WUE of the crops that underwent PM (3.27 kg m-3) treatment was also increased by around 16% compared to the CK, although the overall evapotranspiration was similar between the two treatments. In the rainy years, due to frequent precipitation and scant sunshine, the topsoil temperature and water content in the field that received PM treatment was improved only at some stages and failed to cause higher dry matter accumulation, except at the 8th leaf stage. Consequently, the grain yield and WUE were not improved by PM in the rainy years. In addition, we found that PM caused leaf senescence at the late growth stage in both dry and rainy years. Therefore, in practice, PM should be applied cautiously, especially when in-season precipitation is taken into account. PMID:25970582

Probable effects of the proposed Sulphur Gulch Reservoir on Colorado River quantity and quality near Grand Junction, Colorado

USGS Publications Warehouse

Friedel, M.J.

2004-01-01

A 16,000 acre-foot reservoir is proposed to be located about 25 miles east of Grand Junction, Colorado, on a tributary of the Colorado River that drains the Sulphur Gulch watershed between De Beque and Cameo, Colorado. The Sulphur Gulch Reservoir, which would be filled by pumping water from the Colorado River, is intended to provide the Colorado River with at least 5,412.5 acre-feet of water during low-flow conditions to meet the East Slopes portion of the 10,825 acre-feet of water required under the December 20, 1999, Final Programmatic Biological Opinion for the Upper Colorado River. The reservoir also may provide additional water in the low-flow period and as much as 10,000 acre-feet of water to supplement peak flows when flows in the Colorado River are between 12,900 and 26,600 cubic feet per second. For this study, an annual stochastic mixing model with a daily time step and 1,500 Monte Carlo trials were used to evaluate the probable effect that reservoir operations may have on water quality in the Colorado River at the Government Highline Canal and the Grand Valley Irrigation Canal. Simulations of the divertible flow (ambient background streamflow), after taking into account demands of downstream water rights, indicate that divertible flow will range from 621,860 acre-feet of water in the driest year to 4,822,732 acrefeet of water in the wettest year. Because of pumping limitations, pumpable flow (amount of streamflow available after considering divertible flow and subsequent pumping constraints) will be less than divertible flow. Assuming a pumping capacity of 150 cubic feet per second and year round pumping, except during reservoir release periods, the simulations indicate that there is sufficient streamflow to fill a 16,000 acre-feet reservoir 100 percent of the time. Simulated pumpable flows in the driest year are 91,669 acre-feet and 109,500 acre-feet in the wettest year. Simulations of carryover storage together with year-round pumping indicate that there is generally sufficient pumpable flow available to refill the reservoir to capacity each year following peak-flow releases of as much as 10,000 acrefeet and low-flow releases of 5,412.5 acre-feet of water. It is assumed that at least 5,412.5 acre-feet of stored water will be released during low-flow conditions irrespective of the hydrologic condition. Simulations indicate that peak-flow release conditions (flows between 12,900 and 26,600 cubic feet per second) to allow release of 10,000 acre-feet of stored water in the spring will occur only about 50 percent of the time. Under typical (5 of 10 years) to moderately dry (3 of 10 years) hydrologic conditions, the duration of the peak-flow conditions will not allow the full 10,000 acre-feet to be released from storage to supplement peak flows. During moderate to extremely dry (2 of 10 years) hydrologic conditions, the peak-flow release conditions will not occur, and there will be no opportunity to release water from storage to supplement peak flows. In general, the simulated daily background dissolved-solids concentrations (salinity) increase due to the reservoir releases as hydrologic conditions go from wet to dry at the Government Highline Canal. For example, the simulated median concentrations during the low-flow period range from 417 milligrams per liter (wet year) to 723 milligrams per liter (dry year), whereas the simulated median concentrations observed during the peak-flow period range from 114 milligrams per liter (wet year) to 698 milligrams per liter (dry year). Background concentration values at the Grand Valley Irrigation Canal are generally only a few percent less than those at the Government Highline Canal except during dry years. Low-flow reservoir releases of 5,412.5 acre-feet and 10,825 acre-feet were simulated for a 30-day period in September, and low-flow releases of 5,412.5 acre-feet were simulated for a 78-day period in the months of August through October. In general, these low-flo

Ignimbrite as a substrate for endolithic life in the hyper-arid Atacama Desert: Implications for the search for life on Mars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wierzchos, Jacek; Davila, Alfonso F.; Artieda, Octavio; Cámara-Gallego, Beatriz; de los Ríos, Asunción; Nealson, Kenneth H.; Valea, Sergio; Teresa García-González, M.; Ascaso, Carmen

2013-06-01

The hyper-arid core of the Atacama Desert in Chile is considered the driest and most life-limited place on Earth, with few habitats capable of sustaining an active microbial ecosystem. As such, it is one of the best terrestrial analogues of the extreme arid conditions on Mars, and an ideal environment to explore survival and biological adaptation strategies as the environment becomes increasingly dry. Here we show that weakly welded rhyolitic ignimbrites in this desert are abundantly colonized by endolithic cyanobacteria and associated heterotrophic bacteria. We propose that the porous ignimbrite interior provides protection from damaging UV radiation and excessive levels of visible light. Rock porosity also favors cell hydration through water retention after scarce rainfall events, even when the surrounding environment remains stubbornly dry. This is the first known example of an endolithic microbial community colonizing ignimbrite rocks in an extremely dry environment. The existence of a habitat capable of supporting abundant phototrophic and heterotrophic communities in an environment that precludes most life forms suggests that, if similar deposits are found on Mars, these should be considered important targets in the search for life. Indeed, ignimbrite rocks have been tentatively identified in Gale Crater, the landing site of the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) mission and could be directly analyzed by its rover Curiosity.

2015-16 ENSO Drove Tropical Soil Moisture Dynamics and Methane Fluxes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aronson, E. L.; Dierick, D.; Botthoff, J.; Swanson, A. C.; Johnson, R. F.; Allen, M. F.

2017-12-01

The El Niño/Southern Oscillation Event (ENSO) cycle drives large-scale climatic trends globally. Within the new world tropics, El Niño brings dryer weather than the counterpart La Niña. Atmospheric methane growth rates have shown extreme variability over the past three decades. One proposed driver is the proportion of tropical land surface saturated, affecting methane production or consumption. We measured methane flux bimonthly through the transition of 2015-16 ENSO. The date of measurement, across El Niño and La Niña within the typical "rainy" and "dry" seasons, to be the most significant driver of methane flux. Soil moisture varied across this time period, and regulated methane flux. During the strong El Niño, extreme dry soil conditions occurred in a typical "rainy" season month reducing soil moisture. Wetter than usual soil conditions appeared during the "rainy" season month of the moderate La Niña. The dry El Niño soils corresponded to greater methane consumption by tropical forest soils, and a reduced local atmospheric column methane concentration. Conversely, the wet La Niña soils had lower methane consumption and higher local atmospheric column methane concentrations. The ENSO cycle is a strong driver of tropical terrestrial and wetland soil moisture conditions, and can regulate global atmospheric methane dynamics.

Endless cold: a seasonal reconstruction of temperature and precipitation in the Burgundian Low Countries during the 15th century based on documentary evidence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Camenisch, C.

2015-08-01

This paper applies the methods of historical climatology to present a climate reconstruction for the area of the Burgundian Low Countries during the 15th century. The results are based on documentary evidence that has been handled very carefully, especially with regard to the distinction between contemporary and non-contemporary sources. Approximately 3000 written records derived from about 100 different sources were examined and converted into seasonal seven-degree indices for temperature and precipitation. For the Late Middle Ages only a few climate reconstructions exist. There are even fewer reconstructions which include spring and autumn temperature or any precipitation information at all. This paper therefore constitutes a useful contribution to the understanding of climate and weather conditions in the less well researched but highly interesting 15th century. The extremely cold winter temperatures during the 1430s and an extremely cold winter in 1407/1408 are striking. Moreover, no other year in this century was as hot and dry as 1473. At the beginning and the end of the 1480s and at the beginning of the 1490s summers were considerably wetter than average.

InSAR constraints on soil moisture evolution after the March 2015 extreme precipitation event in Chile.

PubMed

Scott, C P; Lohman, R B; Jordan, T E

2017-07-07

Constraints on soil moisture can guide agricultural practices, act as input into weather, flooding and climate models and inform water resource policies. Space-based interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) observations provide near-global coverage, even in the presence of clouds, of proxies for soil moisture derived from the amplitude and phase content of radar imagery. We describe results from a 1.5 year-long InSAR time series spanning the March, 2015 extreme precipitation event in the hyperarid Atacama desert of Chile, constraining the immediate increase in soil moisture and drying out over the following months, as well as the response to a later, smaller precipitation event. The inferred temporal evolution of soil moisture is remarkably consistent between independent, overlapping SAR tracks covering a region ~100 km in extent. The unusually large rain event, combined with the extensive spatial and temporal coverage of the SAR dataset, present an unprecedented opportunity to image the time-evolution of soil characteristics over different surface types. Constraints on the timescale of shallow water storage after precipitation events are increasingly valuable as global water resources continue to be stretched to their limits and communities continue to develop in flood-prone areas.

Climate-water quality relationships in Texas reservoirs

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gelca, Rodica; Hayhoe, Katharine; Scott-Fleming, Ian; Crow, Caleb; Dawson, D.; Patino, Reynaldo

2015-01-01

Water temperature, dissolved oxygen, and concentrations of salts in surface water bodies can be affected by the natural environment, local human activities such as surface and ground water withdrawals, land use, and energy extraction, and variability and long-term trends in atmospheric conditions including temperature and precipitation. Here, we quantify the relationship between 121 indicators of mean and extreme temperature and precipitation and 24 water quality parameters in 57 Texas reservoirs using observational data records covering the period 1960 to 2010. We find that water temperature, dissolved oxygen, pH, specific conductance, chloride, sulfate, and phosphorus all show consistent correlations with atmospheric predictors, including high and low temperature extremes, dry days, heavy precipitation events, and mean temperature and precipitation over time scales ranging from one week to two years. Based on this analysis and published future projections for this region, we expect climate change to increase water temperatures, decrease dissolved oxygen levels, decrease pH, increase specific conductance, and increase levels of sulfate, chloride in Texas reservoirs. Over decadal time scales, this may affect aquatic ecosystems in the reservoirs, including altering the risk of conditions conducive to algae occurrence, as well as affecting the quality of water available for human consumption and recreation.

Future dryness in the southwest US and the hydrology of the early 21st century drought

PubMed Central

Cayan, Daniel R.; Das, Tapash; Pierce, David W.; Barnett, Tim P.; Tyree, Mary; Gershunov, Alexander

2010-01-01

Recently the Southwest has experienced a spate of dryness, which presents a challenge to the sustainability of current water use by human and natural systems in the region. In the Colorado River Basin, the early 21st century drought has been the most extreme in over a century of Colorado River flows, and might occur in any given century with probability of only 60%. However, hydrological model runs from downscaled Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment climate change simulations suggest that the region is likely to become drier and experience more severe droughts than this. In the latter half of the 21st century the models produced considerably greater drought activity, particularly in the Colorado River Basin, as judged from soil moisture anomalies and other hydrological measures. As in the historical record, most of the simulated extreme droughts build up and persist over many years. Durations of depleted soil moisture over the historical record ranged from 4 to 10 years, but in the 21st century simulations, some of the dry events persisted for 12 years or more. Summers during the observed early 21st century drought were remarkably warm, a feature also evident in many simulated droughts of the 21st century. These severe future droughts are aggravated by enhanced, globally warmed temperatures that reduce spring snowpack and late spring and summer soil moisture. As the climate continues to warm and soil moisture deficits accumulate beyond historical levels, the model simulations suggest that sustaining water supplies in parts of the Southwest will be a challenge. PMID:21149687

Beyond climate envelopes: effects of weather on regional population trends in butterflies.

PubMed

WallisDeVries, Michiel F; Baxter, Wendy; Van Vliet, Arnold J H

2011-10-01

Although the effects of climate change on biodiversity are increasingly evident by the shifts in species ranges across taxonomical groups, the underlying mechanisms affecting individual species are still poorly understood. The power of climate envelopes to predict future ranges has been seriously questioned in recent studies. Amongst others, an improved understanding of the effects of current weather on population trends is required. We analysed the relation between butterfly abundance and the weather experienced during the life cycle for successive years using data collected within the framework of the Dutch Butterfly Monitoring Scheme for 40 species over a 15-year period and corresponding climate data. Both average and extreme temperature and precipitation events were identified, and multiple regression was applied to explain annual changes in population indices. Significant weather effects were obtained for 39 species, with the most frequent effects associated with temperature. However, positive density-dependence suggested climatic independent trends in at least 12 species. Validation of the short-term predictions revealed a good potential for climate-based predictions of population trends in 20 species. Nevertheless, data from the warm and dry year of 2003 indicate that negative effects of climatic extremes are generally underestimated for habitat specialists in drought-susceptible habitats, whereas generalists remain unaffected. Further climatic warming is expected to influence the trends of 13 species, leading to an improvement for nine species, but a continued decline in the majority of species. Expectations from climate envelope models overestimate the positive effects of climate change in northwestern Europe. Our results underline the challenge to include population trends in predicting range shifts in response to climate change.

Future dryness in the Southwest US and the hydrology of the early 21st century drought

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cayan, D.R.; Das, T.; Pierce, D.W.; Barnett, T.P.; Tyree, Mary; Gershunova, A.

2010-01-01

Recently the Southwest has experienced a spate of dryness, which presents a challenge to the sustainability of current water use by human and natural systems in the region. In the Colorado River Basin, the early 21st century drought has been the most extreme in over a century of Colorado River flows, and might occur in any given century with probability of only 60%. However, hydrological model runs from downscaled Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment climate change simulations suggest that the region is likely to become drier and experience more severe droughts than this. In the latter half of the 21st century the models produced considerably greater drought activity, particularly in the Colorado River Basin, as judged from soil moisture anomalies and other hydrological measures. As in the historical record, most of the simulated extreme droughts build up and persist over many years. Durations of depleted soil moisture over the historical record ranged from 4 to 10 years, but in the 21st century simulations, some of the dry events persisted for 12 years or more. Summers during the observed early 21st century drought were remarkably warm, a feature also evident in many simulated droughts of the 21st century. These severe future droughts are aggravated by enhanced, globally warmed temperatures that reduce spring snowpack and late spring and summer soil moisture. As the climate continues to warm and soil moisture deficits accumulate beyond historical levels, the model simulations suggest that sustaining water supplies in parts of the Southwest will be a challenge.

Development of a multivariate calibration model for the determination of dry extract content in Brazilian commercial bee propolis extracts through UV-Vis spectroscopy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barbeira, Paulo J. S.; Paganotti, Rosilene S. N.; Ássimos, Ariane A.

2013-10-01

This study had the objective of determining the content of dry extract of commercial alcoholic extracts of bee propolis through Partial Least Squares (PLS) multivariate calibration and electronic spectroscopy. The PLS model provided a good prediction of dry extract content in commercial alcoholic extracts of bee propolis in the range of 2.7 a 16.8% (m/v), presenting the advantage of being less laborious and faster than the traditional gravimetric methodology. The PLS model was optimized with outlier detection tests according to the ASTM E 1655-05. In this study it was possible to verify that a centrifugation stage is extremely important in order to avoid the presence of waxes, resulting in a more accurate model. Around 50% of the analyzed samples presented content of dry extract lower than the value established by Brazilian legislation, in most cases, the values found were different from the values claimed in the product's label.

Nearing the cold-arid limits of microbial life in permafrost of an upper dry valley, Antarctica.

PubMed

Goordial, Jacqueline; Davila, Alfonso; Lacelle, Denis; Pollard, Wayne; Marinova, Margarita M; Greer, Charles W; DiRuggiero, Jocelyn; McKay, Christopher P; Whyte, Lyle G

2016-07-01

Some of the coldest and driest permafrost soils on Earth are located in the high-elevation McMurdo Dry Valleys (MDVs) of Antarctica, but little is known about the permafrost microbial communities other than that microorganisms are present in these valleys. Here, we describe the microbiology and habitable conditions of highly unique dry and ice-cemented permafrost in University Valley, one of the coldest and driest regions in the MDVs (1700 m above sea level; mean temperature -23 °C; no degree days above freezing), where the ice in permafrost originates from vapour deposition rather than liquid water. We found that culturable and total microbial biomass in University Valley was extremely low, and microbial activity under ambient conditions was undetectable. Our results contrast with reports from the lower-elevation Dry Valleys and Arctic permafrost soils where active microbial populations are found, suggesting that the combination of severe cold, aridity, oligotrophy of University Valley permafrost soils severely limit microbial activity and survival.

Nearing the cold-arid limits of microbial life in permafrost of an upper dry valley, Antarctica

PubMed Central

Goordial, Jacqueline; Davila, Alfonso; Lacelle, Denis; Pollard, Wayne; Marinova, Margarita M; Greer, Charles W; DiRuggiero, Jocelyn; McKay, Christopher P; Whyte, Lyle G

2016-01-01

Some of the coldest and driest permafrost soils on Earth are located in the high-elevation McMurdo Dry Valleys (MDVs) of Antarctica, but little is known about the permafrost microbial communities other than that microorganisms are present in these valleys. Here, we describe the microbiology and habitable conditions of highly unique dry and ice-cemented permafrost in University Valley, one of the coldest and driest regions in the MDVs (1700 m above sea level; mean temperature −23 °C; no degree days above freezing), where the ice in permafrost originates from vapour deposition rather than liquid water. We found that culturable and total microbial biomass in University Valley was extremely low, and microbial activity under ambient conditions was undetectable. Our results contrast with reports from the lower-elevation Dry Valleys and Arctic permafrost soils where active microbial populations are found, suggesting that the combination of severe cold, aridity, oligotrophy of University Valley permafrost soils severely limit microbial activity and survival. PMID:27323892

Impacts of extreme events of drought and flood on local communities of Amazon basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Borma, L. D.; Roballo, S.; Zauner, M.; Nascimento, V. F.

2013-05-01

The analysis of drought events of 1997/98, 2005 and 2010 in terms of discharge anomalies in the Amazon region confirmed previous findings, such as: a) the influence of the El Niño in more than one hydrological year; b) the increase of the influence of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation of 1998, 2005 and 2010 drought events; c) the low levels of discharge observed in the 2010 drought are attributed to the association of discharge anomalies of the northern and southern tributaries of the Amazon river, and d) the 2010 drought lasted around 1 month (August to November) more than the other drought events analized here. The riverine communities located along the river banks of Solimões/Amazonas suit their economic activities to the oscillation of the water level. In general, low water periods favor the access to important sources of food such as fish and livestock, still allowing crop cultivation on fertile agricultural areas of the floodplain. Conversely, periods of drought increases the difficulties of transport and drinking water supply. During the high water, access to the main food supply (described above) are greatly hampered. However, the floods are recognized as an importance process of natural fertilization. Thus, despite the political, social and economic shortcomings, the local community has, since the pre-colonial period, learned to get the best of each season, providing local, regional and national markets with varzea products. During periods of extreme weather, however, the advantages of each season appear to be reduced, and the drawbacks increased. In fact, during flooding extremes, the access to primary sources of food is hampered by a long period of time and families find themselves forced to leave their homes, eventually losing them. Analysis of flow data to the extreme flooding of 2009, indicate a period of about 6 months of positive anomalies discharge (occurring mainly during high water). At the same time, Civil Defense data points to a contingent of about 50% of rural homeless during this event. On the ther side, during the extreme droughts, crops and cattle are likely to perish due to drought. The prolonged dry season threatens local ichthyofauna, promoting an increase in fish mortality. In 1997/98 and 2005 episodes were recorded about 3 months of negative anomalies of discharge, while in 2010, there were about 4 months of negative anomalies during the low water period. According to the data obtained from the Civil Defense, flood events would be more impactful to the local community than the drought ones. However, the absence of quantitative indicators hinders a more precise analysis of the real impacts of drought and flood events in the region. In fact, during the dry season two aspects of extreme importance need to be better addressed: i) the fact that the population of one of the wettest regions of the planet does not have a good water supply for human being, and ii) what are the impacts of extreme drought on the cycle of reproduction of species of local fish fauna?

Statistical downscaling modeling with quantile regression using lasso to estimate extreme rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Santri, Dewi; Wigena, Aji Hamim; Djuraidah, Anik

2016-02-01

Rainfall is one of the climatic elements with high diversity and has many negative impacts especially extreme rainfall. Therefore, there are several methods that required to minimize the damage that may occur. So far, Global circulation models (GCM) are the best method to forecast global climate changes include extreme rainfall. Statistical downscaling (SD) is a technique to develop the relationship between GCM output as a global-scale independent variables and rainfall as a local- scale response variable. Using GCM method will have many difficulties when assessed against observations because GCM has high dimension and multicollinearity between the variables. The common method that used to handle this problem is principal components analysis (PCA) and partial least squares regression. The new method that can be used is lasso. Lasso has advantages in simultaneuosly controlling the variance of the fitted coefficients and performing automatic variable selection. Quantile regression is a method that can be used to detect extreme rainfall in dry and wet extreme. Objective of this study is modeling SD using quantile regression with lasso to predict extreme rainfall in Indramayu. The results showed that the estimation of extreme rainfall (extreme wet in January, February and December) in Indramayu could be predicted properly by the model at quantile 90th.

Improvements In solar dry kiln design

Treesearch

E. M. Wengert

1971-01-01

Interest in solar drying of lumber has increased in recent years because previous results had indicated that: Drying times are shorter and final moisture contents are lower in solar drying than in air drying; much less lumber degrade occurs in solar drying when compared to air drying; and the cost of energy is less in solar drying than in kiln drying. Work in the field...

Plants remember past weather: a study for atmospheric pollen concentrations of Ambrosia, Poaceae and Populus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matyasovszky, István; Makra, László; Csépe, Zoltán; Sümeghy, Zoltán; Deák, Áron József; Pál-Molnár, Elemér; Tusnády, Gábor

2015-10-01

After extreme dry (wet) summers or years, pollen production of different taxa may decrease (increase) substantially. Accordingly, studying effects of current and past meteorological conditions on current pollen concentrations for different taxa have of major importance. The purpose of this study is separating the weight of current and past weather conditions influencing current pollen productions of three taxa. Two procedures, namely multiple correlations and factor analysis with special transformation are used. The 11-year (1997-2007) data sets include daily pollen counts of Ambrosia (ragweed), Poaceae (grasses) and Populus (poplar), as well as daily values of four climate variables (temperature, relative humidity, global solar flux and precipitation). Multiple correlations of daily pollen counts with simultaneous values of daily meteorological variables do not show annual course for Ambrosia, but do show definite trends for Populus and Poaceae. Results received using the two methods revealed characteristic similarities. For all the three taxa, the continental rainfall peak and additional local showers in the growing season can strengthen the weight of the current meteorological elements. However, due to the precipitation, big amount of water can be stored in the soil contributing to the effect of the past climate elements during dry periods. Higher climate sensitivity (especially water sensitivity) of the herbaceous taxa ( Ambrosia and Poaceae) can be definitely established compared to the arboreal Populus. Separation of the weight of the current and past weather conditions for different taxa involves practical importance both for health care and agricultural production.

Use of Climatological Data in Weather Insurance.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Changnon, Stanley A.; Changnon, Joyce M.

1990-05-01

There are three major types of crop-related weather insurance: hail, all perlis, and rain insurance. The development of rates is an exercise in applied climatology, and the importance of the historical data selected for assessing risk (and developing rates) is revealed by the problems encountered by firms insuring against deficient summer rainfall during the drought of 1988. Extensive purchase of premiums costing $9 million for coverage ($400 million) in the Midwest occurred with buyers (farmers) apparently aware during May and June 1988 that an unusually dry event was in progress. The levels of loss (50% or less of average June-August rainfall) offered by insurance firms were exceeded throughout the Midwest. The firms attempted to refund the record number of premiums accepted in June, and in turn, 8000 farmers filed a class-action suit against the firms for failure to accept premiums and to provide coverage. The insurance firms ultimately settled by agreeing to pay $48 million in claims. The coverage offered was based on the most recent 25 years of data, and this unusually wet period did not represent the longer-term likelihood of areally extensive dry summers. Uses of climatic data by the insurance industry include planning for the occurrence of such extreme event considerations, plus point vs area probabilities of these anomalous events; choosing the periods to select for routinely establishing new rates (rerating is typically done an 2- to 10-year cycles); and for determining the averages most appropriate to use for rate levels and sales considerations.

Why can postwildfire runoff and erosion vary from negligible to extreme?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Noske, P.; Nyman, P.; Lane, P. N. J.; Van der Sant, R.; Sheridan, G. J.

2016-12-01

Soil surface properties vary with aridity, as does runoff and erosion after wildfire. Here we draw on studies conducted in different upland eucalypt forests of Victoria Australia, to compare and contrast the hydrological effects of wildfire. The study central to this presentation was conducted in two small (0.2-0.3 ha) dry forested headwater catchments burned during the 2009 Black Saturday wildfire. Surface runoff ratios during rainfall events approached 0.45 in the first year postwildfire. High runoff ratios in these dry forests were attributed to wildfire-induced soil water repellency and inherently low hydraulic conductivity. Average annual sediment yields peaked at 10 t ha-1 during the first year before declining dramatically to background levels, suggesting high-magnitude erosion processes may become limited by sediment availability on hillslopes. Surface runoff and erosion differed substantially between the equatorial and polar-facing catchments; this was most likely due to higher rates of infiltration and surface roughness on polar-facing slopes. Data collected from a plot scale study from 5 different burned forest locations of differing aridity produced a range of runoff ratios that support the findings of the central study. Additional data from burned catchments supporting wetter forests are also presented to further illustrate the contrast in rates of runoff and recovery from a different forest type. Results show that rates of postwildfire erosion and runoff in eucalypt forests in south-east Australia are highly variable. Large differences in erosion and runoff occur with relatively small changes in aridity.

Climate Change-Induced Shifts in the Hydrological Regime of the Upper Amazon Basin and Its Impacts on Local Eco-Hydrology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zulkafli, Z. D.; Buytaert, W.; Veliz, C.

2014-12-01

The potential impact of a changing climate on Andean-Amazonian hydrology is an important question for scientists and policymakers alike, because of its implications for local ecosystem services such as water resources availability, river flow regulation, and eco-hydrology. This study presents new projections of climate change impacts on the hydrological regime of the upper Amazon river in Peru, and the consequent effect on two vulnerable species of freshwater turtle populations Podocnemis expansa (Amazon turtle) and Podocnemis unilis (yellow-spotted side neck turtle), which nest on its banks. To do this, the global climate model outputs of radiation, temperature, precipitation, wind, and humidity data from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) are propagated through a hydrological model to simulate changes in river flow. The model consists of a land surface scheme called the Joint-UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES) that is coupled to a distributed river flow routing routine, which also accounts for floodplain attenuation of flood peaks. It is parameterized using a combination of remote sensing (TRMM, MODIS, an Landsat) and ground observational data to reproduce reliably the historical floodplain regime. The climate-induced shifts are inferred from a comparison between the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 projections against the historical scenario. Changes in the 10th and 95th percentile of flows, as well as the distributions in the length of the dry and wet seasons are analysed. These parameters are then used to construct probability models of biologically significant events (BSEs - extreme dry year, extreme wet year and repiquete), which are negative drivers of the turtle-egg ovipositioning, nesting and hatching. The results indicate that the projected increase in wet-season precipitation overcome the increase in evapotranspirative demand from an increase in temperature, resulting in more frequent and longer term flooding that causes a net loss of total turtle-egg counts. Additionally, changes in air and water temperature may alter the male / female ratio of the turtles.

Impact of Optimized land Surface Parameters on the Land-Atmosphere Coupling in WRF Simulations of Dry and Wet Extremes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kumar, Sujay; Santanello, Joseph; Peters-Lidard, Christa; Harrison, Ken

2011-01-01

Land-atmosphere (L-A) interactions play a critical role in determining the diurnal evolution of both planetary boundary layer (PBL) and land surface temperature and moisture budgets, as well as controlling feedbacks with clouds and precipitation that lead to the persistence of dry and wet regimes. Recent efforts to quantify the strength of L-A coupling in prediction models have produced diagnostics that integrate across both the land and PBL components of the system. In this study, we examine the impact of improved specification of land surface states, anomalies, and fluxes on coupled WRF forecasts during the summers of extreme dry (2006) and wet (2007) conditions in the U.S. Southern Great Plains. The improved land initialization and surface flux parameterizations are obtained through the use of a new optimization and uncertainty module in NASA's Land Information System (LIS-OPT), whereby parameter sets are calibrated in the Noah land surface model and classified according to the land cover and soil type mapping of the observations and the full domain. The impact of the calibrated parameters on the a) spin up of land surface states used as initial conditions, and b) heat and moisture fluxes of the coupled (LIS-WRF) simulations are then assessed in terms of ambient weather, PBL budgets, and precipitation along with L-A coupling diagnostics. In addition, the sensitivity of this approach to the period of calibration (dry, wet, normal) is investigated. Finally, tradeoffs of computational tractability and scientific validity (e.g.,. relating to the representation of the spatial dependence of parameters) and the feasibility of calibrating to multiple observational datasets are also discussed.

Diagnosing the Nature of Land-Atmosphere Coupling: A Case Study of Dry/Wet Extremes in the U. S. Southern Great Plains

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Santanello, Joseph A. Jr.; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.; Kennedy, Aaron; Kumar, Sujay V.

2012-01-01

Land-atmosphere (L-A) interactions play a critical role in determining the diurnal evolution of land surface and planetary boundary layer (PBL) temperature and moisture states and fluxes. In turn, these interactions regulate the strength of the connection between surface moisture and precipitation in a coupled system. To address model deficiencies, recent studies have focused on development of diagnostics to quantify the strength and accuracy of the land- PBL coupling at the process-level. In this paper, a diagnosis of the nature and impacts of local land-atmosphere coupling (LoCo) during dry and wet extreme conditions is presented using a combination of models and observations during the summers of 2006 and 2007 in the U.S. Southern Great Plains. A range of diagnostics exploring the links and feedbacks between soil moisture and precipitation are applied to the dry/wet regimes exhibited in this region, and in the process a thorough evaluation of nine different land-PBL scheme couplings is conducted under the umbrella of a high-resolution regional modeling testbed. Results show that the sign and magnitude of errors in land surface energy balance components are sensitive to the choice of land surface model, regime type, and running mode. In addition, LoCo diagnostics show that the sensitivity of L-A coupling is stronger towards the land during dry conditions, while the PBL scheme coupling becomes more important during the wet regime. Results also demonstrate how LoCo diagnostics can be applied to any modeling system (e.g. reanalysis products) in the context of their integrated impacts on the process-chain connecting the land surface to the PBL and in support of hydrological anomalies.

Diagnosing the Nature of Land-Atmosphere Coupling: A Case Study of Dry/Wet Extremes in the U.S. Southern Great Plains

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Santanello, Joseph A., Jr.; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.; Kennedy, Aaron; Kumar, Sujay V.

2012-01-01

Land-atmosphere (L-A) interactions play a critical role in determining the diurnal evolution of land surface and planetary boundary layer (PBL) temperature and moisture states and fluxes. In turn, these interactions regulate the strength of the connection between surface moisture and precipitation in a coupled system. To address model deficiencies, recent studies have focused on development of diagnostics to quantify the strength and accuracy of the land-PBL coupling at the process level. In this paper, a diagnosis of the nature and impacts of local land-atmosphere coupling (LoCo) during dry and wet extreme conditions is presented using a combination of models and observations during the summers of 2006 and 2007 in the U.S. southern Great Plains. A range of diagnostics exploring the links and feedbacks between soil moisture and precipitation is applied to the dry/wet regimes exhibited in this region, and in the process, a thorough evaluation of nine different land-PBL scheme couplings is conducted under the umbrella of a high-resolution regional modeling test bed. Results show that the sign and magnitude of errors in land surface energy balance components are sensitive to the choice of land surface model, regime type, and running mode. In addition, LoCo diagnostics show that the sensitivity of L-A coupling is stronger toward the land during dry conditions, while the PBL scheme coupling becomes more important during the wet regime. Results also demonstrate how LoCo diagnostics can be applied to any modeling system (e.g., reanalysis products) in the context of their integrated impacts on the process chain connecting the land surface to the PBL and in support of hydrological anomalies.

The limp flywheel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lerner, R. M.

1984-06-01

It is proposed to design and construct energy storage flywheel rotors as statically limp tubes containing liquid mass, and to drive and support this rotating system (at least in part) directly, rather than through separately engineered subsystems. If the liquid is presumed thixotropic or viscous, nominally stiff structures subject to plastic flow are included. At one extreme of the design range, nearly all the mass is in the liquid and the only significant stresses are those in the wall of the containment; at the other extreme, the statically limp structure is nearly dry and is formed into an oblate surface by the centrifugal force of its own mass.

Trees tolerate an extreme heatwave via sustained transpirational cooling and increased leaf thermal tolerance.

PubMed

Drake, John E; Tjoelker, Mark G; Vårhammar, Angelica; Medlyn, Belinda E; Reich, Peter B; Leigh, Andrea; Pfautsch, Sebastian; Blackman, Chris J; López, Rosana; Aspinwall, Michael J; Crous, Kristine Y; Duursma, Remko A; Kumarathunge, Dushan; De Kauwe, Martin G; Jiang, Mingkai; Nicotra, Adrienne B; Tissue, David T; Choat, Brendan; Atkin, Owen K; Barton, Craig V M

2018-06-01

Heatwaves are likely to increase in frequency and intensity with climate change, which may impair tree function and forest C uptake. However, we have little information regarding the impact of extreme heatwaves on the physiological performance of large trees in the field. Here, we grew Eucalyptus parramattensis trees for 1 year with experimental warming (+3°C) in a field setting, until they were greater than 6 m tall. We withheld irrigation for 1 month to dry the surface soils and then implemented an extreme heatwave treatment of 4 consecutive days with air temperatures exceeding 43°C, while monitoring whole-canopy exchange of CO 2 and H 2 O, leaf temperatures, leaf thermal tolerance, and leaf and branch hydraulic status. The heatwave reduced midday canopy photosynthesis to near zero but transpiration persisted, maintaining canopy cooling. A standard photosynthetic model was unable to capture the observed decoupling between photosynthesis and transpiration at high temperatures, suggesting that climate models may underestimate a moderating feedback of vegetation on heatwave intensity. The heatwave also triggered a rapid increase in leaf thermal tolerance, such that leaf temperatures observed during the heatwave were maintained within the thermal limits of leaf function. All responses were equivalent for trees with a prior history of ambient and warmed (+3°C) temperatures, indicating that climate warming conferred no added tolerance of heatwaves expected in the future. This coordinated physiological response utilizing latent cooling and adjustment of thermal thresholds has implications for tree tolerance of future climate extremes as well as model predictions of future heatwave intensity at landscape and global scales. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Anatomy of extraordinary rainfall and flash flood in a Dutch lowland catchment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brauer, C. C.; Teuling, A. J.; Overeem, A.; van der Velde, Y.; Hazenberg, P.; Warmerdam, P. M. M.; Uijlenhoet, R.

2011-06-01

On 26 August 2010 the eastern part of The Netherlands and the bordering part of Germany were struck by a series of rainfall events lasting for more than a day. Over an area of 740 km2 more than 120 mm of rainfall were observed in 24 h. This extreme event resulted in local flooding of city centres, highways and agricultural fields, and considerable financial loss. In this paper we report on the unprecedented flash flood triggered by this exceptionally heavy rainfall event in the 6.5 km2 Hupsel Brook catchment, which has been the experimental watershed employed by Wageningen University since the 1960s. This study aims to improve our understanding of the dynamics of such lowland flash floods. We present a detailed hydrometeorological analysis of this extreme event, focusing on its synoptic meteorological characteristics, its space-time rainfall dynamics as observed with rain gauges, weather radar and a microwave link, as well as the measured soil moisture, groundwater and discharge response of the catchment. At the Hupsel Brook catchment 160 mm of rainfall was observed in 24 h, corresponding to an estimated return period of well over 1000 years. As a result, discharge at the catchment outlet increased from 4.4 × 10-3 to nearly 5 m3 s-1. Within 7 h discharge rose from 5 × 10-2 to 4.5 m3 s-1. The catchment response can be divided into four phases: (1) soil moisture reservoir filling, (2) groundwater response, (3) surface depression filling and surface runoff and (4) backwater feedback. The first 35 mm of rainfall were stored in the soil without a significant increase in discharge. Relatively dry initial conditions (in comparison to those for past discharge extremes) prevented an even faster and more extreme hydrological response.

Long-term trend analysis on total and extreme precipitation over Shasta Dam watershed.

PubMed

Toride, Kinya; Cawthorne, Dylan L; Ishida, Kei; Kavvas, M Levent; Anderson, Michael L

2018-06-01

California's interconnected water system is one of the most advanced water management systems in the world, and understanding of long-term trends in atmospheric and hydrologic behavior has increasingly being seen as vital to its future well-being. Knowledge of such trends is hampered by the lack of long-period observation data and the uncertainty surrounding future projections of atmospheric models. This study examines historical precipitation trends over the Shasta Dam watershed (SDW), which lies upstream of one of the most important components of California's water system, Shasta Dam, using a dynamical downscaling methodology that can produce atmospheric data at fine time-space scales. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is employed to reconstruct 159years of long-term hourly precipitation data at 3km spatial resolution over SDW using the 20th Century Reanalysis Version 2c dataset. Trend analysis on this data indicates a significant increase in total precipitation as well as a growing intensity of extreme events such as 1, 6, 12, 24, 48, and 72-hour storms over the period of 1851 to 2010. The turning point of the increasing trend and no significant trend periods is found to be 1940 for annual precipitation and the period of 1950 to 1960 for extreme precipitation using the sequential Mann-Kendall test. Based on these analysis, we find the trends at the regional scale do not necessarily apply to the watershed-scale. The sharp increase in the variability of annual precipitation since 1970s is also detected, which implies an increase in the occurrence of extreme wet and dry conditions. These results inform long-term planning decisions regarding the future of Shasta Dam and California's water system. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A global assessment of NASA AIRS v6 and EUMETSAT IASI v6 precipitable water vapor using ground-based GPS SuomiNet stations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roman, Jacola; Knuteson, Robert; August, Thomas; Hultberg, Tim; Ackerman, Steve; Revercomb, Hank

2016-08-01

Satellite remote sensing of precipitable water vapor (PWV) is essential for monitoring moisture in real time for weather applications, as well as tracking the long-term changes in PWV for climate change trend detection. This study assesses the accuracies of the current satellite observing system, specifically the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) v6 PWV product and the European Organization for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellite Studies (EUMETSAT) Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) v6 PWV product, using ground-based SuomiNet Global Positioning System (GPS) network as truth. Elevation-corrected collocated matchups to each SuomiNet GPS station in North America and around the world were created, and results were broken down by station, ARM region, climate zone, and latitude zone. The greatest difference, exceeding 5%, between IASI and AIRS retrievals occurred in the tropics. Generally, IASI and AIRS fall within a 5% error in the PWV range of 20-40 mm (a mean bias less than 2 mm), with a wet bias for extremely low PWV values (less than 5 mm) and a dry bias for extremely high PWV values (greater than 50 mm). The operational IR satellite products are able to capture the mean PWV but degrade in the extreme dry and wet regimes.

67. VIEW, LOOKING WEST, OF A STEAM LAUNDRY LOCATED IN ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

67. VIEW, LOOKING WEST, OF A STEAM LAUNDRY LOCATED IN THE CONDENSER GALLERY UNDER THE TURBINE HALL. THE FACILITY WAS USED TO WASH WORKERS CLOTHES. THE WASH TUB IS LOCATED AT THE LEFT OF THE PHOTOGRAPH. THE TUB WAS LOADED WITH LAUNDRY, SOAP AND WATER. STEAM WAS BLOWN IN THROUGH THE PIPE AT THE EXTREME LEFT OF THE PHOTOGRAPH. THE ROUNDED RIGHT END OF THE TUB PROMOTED TUMBLING AND SCRUBBING ACTION. ON THE RIGHT OF THE PHOTOGRAPH IS A STEAM POWERED CENTRIFUGE FOR SPIN DRYING LAUNDRY. THE WIRE FRAMES AT THE CENTER BACKGROUND ARE PANTS STRETCHERS. THEY WERE INSERTED INTO OVERALL OR TROUSER LEGS TO MINIMIZE WRINKLING AND ENCOURAGE DRYING. LAUNDRY WAS DRIED ON NEARBY STEAM PIPES. (WITH SCALE) - New York, New Haven & Hartford Railroad, Cos Cob Power Plant, Sound Shore Drive, Greenwich, Fairfield County, CT

Extremely Robust and Patternable Electrodes for Copy-Paper-Based Electronics.

PubMed

Ahn, Jaeho; Seo, Ji-Won; Lee, Tae-Ik; Kwon, Donguk; Park, Inkyu; Kim, Taek-Soo; Lee, Jung-Yong

2016-07-27

We propose a fabrication process for extremely robust and easily patternable silver nanowire (AgNW) electrodes on paper. Using an auxiliary donor layer and a simple laminating process, AgNWs can be easily transferred to copy paper as well as various other substrates using a dry process. Intercalating a polymeric binder between the AgNWs and the substrate through a simple printing technique enhances adhesion, not only guaranteeing high foldability of the electrodes, but also facilitating selective patterning of the AgNWs. Using the proposed process, extremely crease-tolerant electronics based on copy paper can be fabricated, such as a printed circuit board for a 7-segment display, portable heater, and capacitive touch sensor, demonstrating the applicability of the AgNWs-based electrodes to paper electronics.

Mean annual precipitation predicts primary production resistance and resilience to extreme drought

DOE PAGES

Stuart-Haëntjens, Ellen; De Boeck, Hans J.; Lemoine, Nathan P.; ...

2018-09-01

Extreme drought is increasing in frequency and intensity in many regions globally, with uncertain consequences for the resistance and resilience of ecosystem functions, including primary production. Primary production resistance, the capacity to withstand change during extreme drought, and resilience, the degree to which production recovers, vary among and within ecosystem types, obscuring generalized patterns of ecological stability. Theory and many observations suggest forest production is more resistant but less resilient than grassland production to extreme drought; however, studies of production sensitivity to precipitation variability indicate that the processes controlling resistance and resilience may be influenced more by mean annual precipitationmore » (MAP) than ecosystem type. Here, we conducted a global meta-analysis to investigate primary production resistance and resilience to extreme drought in 64 forests and grasslands across a broad MAP gradient. We found resistance to extreme drought was predicted by MAP; however, grasslands (positive) and forests (negative) exhibited opposing resilience relationships with MAP. Our findings indicate that common plant physiological mechanisms may determine grassland and forest resistance to extreme drought, whereas differences among plant residents in turnover time, plant architecture, and drought adaptive strategies likely underlie divergent resilience patterns. The low resistance and resilience of dry grasslands suggests that these ecosystems are the most vulnerable to extreme drought – a vulnerability that is expected to compound as extreme drought frequency increases in the future.« less

Mean annual precipitation predicts primary production resistance and resilience to extreme drought.

PubMed

Stuart-Haëntjens, Ellen; De Boeck, Hans J; Lemoine, Nathan P; Mänd, Pille; Kröel-Dulay, György; Schmidt, Inger K; Jentsch, Anke; Stampfli, Andreas; Anderegg, William R L; Bahn, Michael; Kreyling, Juergen; Wohlgemuth, Thomas; Lloret, Francisco; Classen, Aimée T; Gough, Christopher M; Smith, Melinda D

2018-04-27

Extreme drought is increasing in frequency and intensity in many regions globally, with uncertain consequences for the resistance and resilience of ecosystem functions, including primary production. Primary production resistance, the capacity to withstand change during extreme drought, and resilience, the degree to which production recovers, vary among and within ecosystem types, obscuring generalized patterns of ecological stability. Theory and many observations suggest forest production is more resistant but less resilient than grassland production to extreme drought; however, studies of production sensitivity to precipitation variability indicate that the processes controlling resistance and resilience may be influenced more by mean annual precipitation (MAP) than ecosystem type. Here, we conducted a global meta-analysis to investigate primary production resistance and resilience to extreme drought in 64 forests and grasslands across a broad MAP gradient. We found resistance to extreme drought was predicted by MAP; however, grasslands (positive) and forests (negative) exhibited opposing resilience relationships with MAP. Our findings indicate that common plant physiological mechanisms may determine grassland and forest resistance to extreme drought, whereas differences among plant residents in turnover time, plant architecture, and drought adaptive strategies likely underlie divergent resilience patterns. The low resistance and resilience of dry grasslands suggests that these ecosystems are the most vulnerable to extreme drought - a vulnerability that is expected to compound as extreme drought frequency increases in the future. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Mean annual precipitation predicts primary production resistance and resilience to extreme drought

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Stuart-Haëntjens, Ellen; De Boeck, Hans J.; Lemoine, Nathan P.

Extreme drought is increasing in frequency and intensity in many regions globally, with uncertain consequences for the resistance and resilience of ecosystem functions, including primary production. Primary production resistance, the capacity to withstand change during extreme drought, and resilience, the degree to which production recovers, vary among and within ecosystem types, obscuring generalized patterns of ecological stability. Theory and many observations suggest forest production is more resistant but less resilient than grassland production to extreme drought; however, studies of production sensitivity to precipitation variability indicate that the processes controlling resistance and resilience may be influenced more by mean annual precipitationmore » (MAP) than ecosystem type. Here, we conducted a global meta-analysis to investigate primary production resistance and resilience to extreme drought in 64 forests and grasslands across a broad MAP gradient. We found resistance to extreme drought was predicted by MAP; however, grasslands (positive) and forests (negative) exhibited opposing resilience relationships with MAP. Our findings indicate that common plant physiological mechanisms may determine grassland and forest resistance to extreme drought, whereas differences among plant residents in turnover time, plant architecture, and drought adaptive strategies likely underlie divergent resilience patterns. The low resistance and resilience of dry grasslands suggests that these ecosystems are the most vulnerable to extreme drought – a vulnerability that is expected to compound as extreme drought frequency increases in the future.« less

Steam atmosphere drying exhaust steam recompression system

DOEpatents

Becker, F.E.; Smolensky, L.A.; Doyle, E.F.; DiBella, F.A.

1994-03-08

This invention relates to a heated steam atmosphere drying system comprising dryer in combination with an exhaust recompression system which is extremely energy efficient and eliminates dangers known to air dryers. The system uses superheated steam as the drying medium, which recirculates through the system where its heat of evaporation and heat of compression is recovered, thereby providing a constant source of heat to the drying chamber. The dryer has inlets whereby feedstock and superheated steam are fed therein. High heat transfer and drying rates are achieved by intimate contact of the superheated steam with the particles being dried. The dryer comprises a vessel which enables the feedstock and steam to enter and recirculate together. When the feedstock becomes dry it will exit the dryer with the steam and become separated from the steam through the use of a curvilinear louver separator (CLS). The CLS enables removal of fine and ultrafine particles from the dryer. Water vapor separated from the particles in the CLS as superheated steam, may then be recovered and recirculated as steam through the use of a compressor to either directly or indirectly heat the dryer, and a heat exchanger or a heater to directly provide heat to the dryer. This system not only provides a very efficient heat transfer system but results in a minimum carry-over of ultrafine particles thereby eliminating any explosive hazard. 17 figures.

Steam atmosphere drying exhaust steam recompression system

DOEpatents

Becker, Frederick E.; Smolensky, Leo A.; Doyle, Edward F.; DiBella, Francis A.

1994-01-01

This invention relates to a heated steam atmosphere drying system comprising dryer in combination with an exhaust recompression system which is extremely energy efficient and eliminates dangers known to air dryers. The system uses superheated steam as the drying medium, which recirculated through the system where its heat of evaporation and heat of compression is recovered, thereby providing a constant source of heat to the drying chamber. The dryer has inlets whereby feedstock and superheated steam are fed therein. High heat transfer and drying rates are achieved by intimate contact of the superheated steam with the particles being dried The dryer comprises a vessel which enables the feedstock and steam to enter recirculate together. When the feedstock becomes dry it will exit the dryer with the steam and become separated from the steam through the use of a curvilinear louver separator (CLS). The CLS enables removal of fine and ultrafine particles from the dryer. Water vapor separated from the particles in the CLS as superheated steam, may then be recovered and recirculated as steam through the use of a compressor to either directly or indirectly heat the dryer, and a heat exchanger or a heater to directly provide heat to the dryer. This system not only provides a very efficient heat transfer system but results in a minimum carry-over of ultrafine particles thereby eliminating any explosive hazard.

Conformation Effects on the Photoluminescence Behavior of Anchored MEH-PPV Pancakes and Brushes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shih, Kuo Sheng; Chen, Po-Tsun; Yang, Arnold C.-M.

2012-02-01

Single molecular layer of poly[2-methoxy-5-(2'-ethylhexyl)oxy)-1,4- phenylenevinylene] (MEH-PPV) grafted on primed silicon wafer were synthesized, forming brushes (chain spacing 0.54 nm via graft-from) or pancakes (˜ 7nm to 34 nm via graft-to). For the tight-packed brushes, the PL emission peak, residing in the range from 434 nm to 550 nm depending on the chain length, was generally unchanged when transferring between the dry and solvent immersion states. However, for the pancakes, the emission peak blue-shifted dramatically (up to 100 nm) when dried in the air relative to that in the solvent. These shifts were fully reversible in the dry-wet cycles. The large blue shifts of the anchored pancakes were attributed to the mechanical stretching of entangled MEH-PPV segments in contact with substrate upon solvent loss. In contrast, the blue shifts disappeared and small red shifts emerged instead for extremely slowly drying (24 hrs drying time), revealing the stress-relaxation pathways in the equilibrium conditions. The drying-induced blue shift was also observed in the un-anchored drop-casting samples but the reversibility vanished. Finally, a large enhancement of PL intensity was accompanied with the blue shifts, manifesting the effect of the molecular constraints.

Effects of Chamber Pressure and Partial Pressure of Water Vapor on Secondary Drying in Lyophilization.

PubMed

Searles, James A; Aravapalli, Sridhar; Hodge, Cody

2017-10-01

Secondary drying is the final step of lyophilization before stoppering, during which water is desorbed from the product to yield the final moisture content. We studied how chamber pressure and partial pressure of water vapor during this step affected the time course of water content of aqueous solutions of polyvinylpyrrolidone (PVP) in glass vials. The total chamber pressure had no effect when the partial pressure of water vapor was very low. However, when the vapor phase contained a substantial fraction of water vapor, the PVP moisture content was much higher. We carried out dynamic vapor sorption experiments (DVS) to demonstrate that the higher PVP moisture content was a straightforward result of the higher water vapor content in the lyophilizer. The results highlight that the partial pressure of water vapor is extremely important during secondary drying in lyophilization, and that lower chamber pressure set points for secondary drying may sometimes be justified as a strategy for ensuring low partial pressure of water vapor, especially for lyophilizers that do not inject dry gas to control pressure. These findings have direct application for process transfers/scale ups from freeze-dryers that do not inject dry gas for pressure control to those that do, and vice versa.

Changes in extreme temperature and precipitation events in the Loess Plateau (China) during 1960-2013 under global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Wenyi; Mu, Xingmin; Song, Xiaoyan; Wu, Dan; Cheng, Aifang; Qiu, Bing

2016-02-01

In recent decades, extreme climatic events have been a major issue worldwide. Regional assessments on various climates and geographic regions are needed for understanding uncertainties in extreme events' responses to global warming. The objective of this study was to assess the annual and decadal trends in 12 extreme temperature and 10 extreme precipitation indices in terms of intensity, frequency, and duration over the Loess Plateau during 1960-2013. The results indicated that the regionally averaged trends in temperature extremes were consistent with global warming. The occurrence of warm extremes, including summer days (SU), tropical nights (TR), warm days (TX90), and nights (TN90) and a warm spell duration indicator (WSDI), increased by 2.76 (P < 0.01), 1.24 (P < 0.01), 2.60 (P = 0.0003), 3.41 (P < 0.01), and 0.68 (P = 0.0041) days/decade during the period of 1960-2013, particularly, sharp increases in these indices occurred in 1985-2000. Over the same period, the occurrence of cold extremes, including frost days (FD), ice days (ID), cold days (TX10) and nights (TN10), and a cold spell duration indicator (CSDI) exhibited decreases of - 3.22 (P < 0.01), - 2.21 (P = 0.0028), - 2.71 (P = 0.0028), - 4.31 (P < 0.01), and - 0.69 (P = 0.0951) days/decade, respectively. Moreover, extreme warm events in most regions tended to increase while cold indices tended to decrease in the Loess Plateau, but the trend magnitudes of cold extremes were greater than those of warm extremes. The growing season (GSL) in the Loess Plateau was lengthened at a rate of 3.16 days/decade (P < 0.01). Diurnal temperature range (DTR) declined at a rate of - 0.06 °C /decade (P = 0.0931). Regarding the precipitation indices, the annual total precipitation (PRCPTOT) showed no obvious trends (P = 0.7828). The regionally averaged daily rainfall intensity (SDII) exhibited significant decreases (- 0.14 mm/day/decade, P = 0.0158), whereas consecutive dry days (CDD) significantly increased (1.96 days/decade, P = 0.0001) during 1960-2013. Most of stations with significant changes in SDII and CDD occurred in central and southeastern Loess Plateau. However, the changes in days of erosive rainfall, heavy rain, rainstorm, maximum 5-day precipitation, and very-wet-day and extremely wet-day precipitation were not significant. Large-scale atmospheric circulation indices, such as the Western Pacific Subtropical High Intensity Index (WPSHII) and Arctic Oscillation (AO), strongly influences warm/cold extremes and contributes significantly to climate changes in the Loess Plateau. The enhanced geopotential height over the Eurasian continent and increase in water vapor divergence in the rainy season have contributed to the changes of the rapid warming and consecutive drying in the Loess Plateau.

Holistic view to integrated climate change assessment and extreme weather adaptation in the Lake Victoria Basin East Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mutua, F.; Koike, T.

2013-12-01

Extreme weather events have been the leading cause of disasters and damage all over the world.The primary ingredient to these disasters especially floods is rainfall which over the years, despite advances in modeling, computing power and use of new data and technologies, has proven to be difficult to predict. Also, recent climate projections showed a pattern consistent with increase in the intensity and frequency of extreme events in the East African region.We propose a holistic integrated approach to climate change assessment and extreme event adaptation through coupling of analysis techniques, tools and data. The Lake Victoria Basin (LVB) in East Africa supports over three million livelihoods and is a valuable resource to five East African countries as a source of water and means of transport. However, with a Mesoscale weather regime driven by land and lake dynamics,extreme Mesoscale events have been prevalent and the region has been on the receiving end during anomalously wet years in the region. This has resulted in loss of lives, displacements, and food insecurity. In the LVB, the effects of climate change are increasingly being recognized as a significant contributor to poverty, by its linkage to agriculture, food security and water resources. Of particular importance are the likely impacts of climate change in frequency and intensity of extreme events. To tackle this aspect, this study adopted an integrated regional, mesoscale and basin scale approach to climate change assessment. We investigated the projected changes in mean climate over East Africa, diagnosed the signals of climate change in the atmosphere, and transferred this understanding to mesoscale and basin scale. Changes in rainfall were analyzed and similar to the IPCC AR4 report; the selected three General Circulation Models (GCMs) project a wetter East Africa with intermittent dry periods in June-August. Extreme events in the region are projected to increase; with the number of wet days exceeding the 90% percentile of 1981-2000 likely to increase by 20-40% in the whole region. We also focused on short-term weather forecasting as a step towards adapting to a changing climate. This involved dynamic downscaling of global weather forecasts to high resolution with a special focus on extreme events. By utilizing complex model dynamics, the system was able to reproduce the Mesoscale dynamics well, simulated the land/lake breeze and diurnal pattern but was inadequate in some aspects. The quantitative prediction of rainfall was inaccurate with overestimation and misplacement but with reasonable occurrence. To address these shortcomings we investigated the value added by assimilating Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR-E) brightness temperature during the event. By assimilating 23GHz (sensitive to water) and 89GHz (sensitive to cloud) frequency brightness temperature; the predictability of an extreme rain weather event was investigated. The assimilation through a Cloud Microphysics Data Assimilation (CMDAS) into the weather prediction model considerably improved the spatial distribution of this event.

KSC01padig216

NASA Image and Video Library

2001-05-23

KENNEDY SPACE CENTER, FLA. -- Banks of lights dry tiles on orbiter Atlantis in the Orbiter Processing Facility. Significant rainstorms during the orbiter’s turnaround for a ferry flight home from Edwards Air Force Base, Calif., caused the moisture problem. The tiles are part of the Thermal Protection System used on orbiters for extreme temperatures encountered during landing

KSC01padig215

NASA Image and Video Library

2001-05-23

KENNEDY SPACE CENTER, FLA. -- Banks of lights dry tiles on orbiter Atlantis in the Orbiter Processing Facility. Significant rainstorms during the orbiter’s turnaround for a ferry flight home from Edwards Air Force Base, Calif., caused the moisture problem. The tiles are part of the Thermal Protection System used on orbiters for extreme temperatures encountered during landing

Soil moisture and biogeochemical factors influence the distribution of annual Bromus species

Treesearch

Jayne Belnap; John M. Stark; Benjamin M. Rau; Edith B. Allen; Susan Phillips

2016-01-01

Abiotic factors have a strong influence on where annual Bromus species are found. At the large regional scale, temperature and precipitation extremes determine the boundaries of Bromus occurrence. At the more local scale, soil characteristics and climate influence distribution, cover, and performance. In hot, dry, summer-rainfall-dominated deserts (Sonoran, Chihuahuan...

Winter-Deciduous versus Evergreen Habit in Mediterranean Regions: A Model

Treesearch

Mark A. Blumler

1991-01-01

Although winter-deciduous species are presumed to be "out-of-phase" with the mediterranean climate regime, distributional evidence suggests some taxa may be more tolerant of summer drought than evergreen sclerophylls. Deciduous species possess several features that confer advantage in extreme summer dry regions: drought-deciduousness, an efficient response to...

How oaks respond to water limitation

Treesearch

Michael F. Allen

2015-01-01

Oaks are extremely resilient trees. They have persisted since the mid-Cretaceous, with life forms ranging from shrubs to large trees, from evergreen to deciduous. They have two distinct, but critical, adaptations to drought that make this "mesic" taxon adaptable to dry hot environments. First, they form both arbuscular and ectotrophic mycorrhizae, with a high...

Ecosystem Resilience to Drought and Temperature Anomalies in the Mekong River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Na-U-Dom, T.; García, M.; Mo, X.

2017-05-01

Climate change is leading to an increasing in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, which significantly affect ecosystems stability. In this study, ecological stability metrics in response to wet/dry events and warm/cold events on vegetation greenness were assessed using an auto-regressive model of NDVI in the Mekong River basin (around 759,000 km2) where large ecological and climatic gradients exist. Gridded temperature, and the Global Standard Precipitation Evaporation Index (SPEI) and antecedent NDVI were used as model predictors. The forest in north Laos was more resilient to the temperate and wet/dry anomalies events than other regions in the basin. Drought reduced green biomass in north Laos, northeast Thailand and Myanmar, but in these tropical climate regions’ the vegetation biomass was also more responsive by higher temperatures. Vegetation in northeast Thailand, Cambodia and the Mekong delta were less sensitive to the temperature anomalies effect compared to other part of Mekong River basin. The map of resistance and resilience metrics can help to determine the most vulnerable regions to extreme events for policy makers.

Are satellite products good proxies for gauge precipitation over Singapore?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hur, Jina; Raghavan, Srivatsan V.; Nguyen, Ngoc Son; Liong, Shie-Yui

2018-05-01

The uncertainties in two high-resolution satellite precipitation products (TRMM 3B42 v7.0 and GSMaP v5.222) were investigated by comparing them against rain gauge observations over Singapore on sub-daily scales. The satellite-borne precipitation products are assessed in terms of seasonal, monthly and daily variations, the diurnal cycle, and extreme precipitation over a 10-year period (2000-2010). Results indicate that the uncertainties in extreme precipitation is higher in GSMaP than in TRMM, possibly due to the issues such as satellite merging algorithm, the finer spatio-temporal scale of high intensity precipitation, and the swath time of satellite. Such discrepancies between satellite-borne and gauge-based precipitations at sub-daily scale can possibly lead to distorting analysis of precipitation characteristics and/or application model results. Overall, both satellite products are unable to capture the observed extremes and provide a good agreement with observations only at coarse time scales. Also, the satellite products agree well on the late afternoon maximum and heavier rainfall of gauge-based data in winter season when the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) is located over Singapore. However, they do not reproduce the gauge-observed diurnal cycle in summer. The disagreement in summer could be attributed to the dominant satellite overpass time (about 14:00 SGT) later than the diurnal peak time (about 09:00 SGT) of gauge precipitation. From the analyses of extreme precipitation indices, it is inferred that both satellite datasets tend to overestimate the light rain and frequency but underestimate high intensity precipitation and the length of dry spells. This study on quantification of their uncertainty is useful in many aspects especially that these satellite products stand scrutiny over places where there are no good ground data to be compared against. This has serious implications on climate studies as in model evaluations and in particular, climate model simulated future projections, when information on precipitation extremes need to be reliable as they are highly crucial for adaptation and mitigation.

Foehn-induced effects on dust pollution, frontal clouds and solar radiation in the Dead Sea valley

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kishcha, Pavel; Starobinets, Boris; Alpert, Pinhas; Kaplan, Michael

2017-04-01

The significant drying up of the Dead Sea over the past 40 years has led to an increase in an exposed area contributing to local dust pollution. Measurements show that, sometimes, in the Dead Sea valley, dust pollution can reach extreme concentrations up to several thousands of micrograms per cubic meters. Our analysis of a meteorological situation shows that a foehn phenomenon can be a causal factor for the aforementioned extreme local dust concentration. This foehn phenomenon creates strong warm and dry winds, which are accompanied by air turbulence and temperature inversion. In our study, foehn-induced effects on dust pollution, frontal clouds and solar radiation were analyzed over the Judean Mountains ( 1000 m) and over the Dead Sea valley (-420 m), using high-resolution numerical simulations and in-situ observations at meteorological stations located across the mountain ridge. An extreme dust episode occurring on March 22, 2013, was analyzed, which was characterized by measured surface dust concentrations of up to 7000 µg m-3 in the Dead Sea valley. We simulated this foehn phenomenon with the 3-km resolution COSMO-ART model. Our analysis has shown that the foehn phenomenon could be observed even over the relatively low Judean Mountains. This analysis was based on various meteorological, pyranometer, radar, and aerosol measurements together with high-resolution model data. In the Dead Sea valley, the maximum aerosol optical depth (AOD) did not coincide with the maximum surface dust concentration. This lack of coincidence indicates difficulties in using satellite-based AOD for initializing dust concentration within numerical forecast systems over this region with complex terrain. In the western Dead Sea valley, strong foehn winds of over 20 m/s were accompanied by maximal air turbulence leading to maximal local dust emissions. Thus, the model showed that, by creating significant turbulence, the foehn phenomenon intensified the saltation (bombardment) mechanism of local dust generation in the western Dead Sea valley. In addition, the foehn-induced pronounced temperature inversion trapped dust particles beneath this inversion. These two factors caused the measured extreme surface dust concentration in the Dead Sea valley on the specified day. Radar data on March 22 showed a passage of multi-layer frontal cloudiness through the area of the Dead Sea valley leading to a sharp drop in noon solar radiation. The strong descending airflow over the downwind side of the Judean Mountains significantly influenced the frontal cloudiness leading to the formation of a cloud-free band over the Dead Sea valley.