7 CFR 1709.3 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

..., wood and other biomass fuels, coal, wind and solar energy. Fuels used for subsistence activities in... ASSISTANCE TO HIGH ENERGY COST COMMUNITIES General Requirements § 1709.3 Definitions. Administrator means the... so identified in USDA regulations. Extremely high energy costs means community average residential...

7 CFR 1709.3 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

..., wood and other biomass fuels, coal, wind and solar energy. Fuels used for subsistence activities in... ASSISTANCE TO HIGH ENERGY COST COMMUNITIES General Requirements § 1709.3 Definitions. Administrator means the... so identified in USDA regulations. Extremely high energy costs means community average residential...

Local sea surface temperatures add to extreme precipitation in northeast Australia during La Niña

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Evans, Jason P.; Boyer-Souchet, Irène

2012-05-01

This study examines the role played by high sea surface temperatures around northern Australia, in producing the extreme precipitation which occurred during the strong La Niña in December 2010. These extreme rains produced floods that impacted almost 1,300,000 km2, caused billions of dollars in damage, led to the evacuation of thousands of people and resulted in 35 deaths. Through the use of regional climate model simulations the contribution of the observed high sea surface temperatures to the rainfall is quantified. Results indicate that the large-scale atmospheric circulation changes associated with the La Niña event, while associated with above average rainfall in northeast Australia, were insufficient to produce the extreme rainfall and subsequent flooding observed. The presence of high sea surface temperatures around northern Australia added ˜25% of the rainfall total.

High average power scaleable thin-disk laser

DOEpatents

Beach, Raymond J.; Honea, Eric C.; Bibeau, Camille; Payne, Stephen A.; Powell, Howard; Krupke, William F.; Sutton, Steven B.

2002-01-01

Using a thin disk laser gain element with an undoped cap layer enables the scaling of lasers to extremely high average output power values. Ordinarily, the power scaling of such thin disk lasers is limited by the deleterious effects of amplified spontaneous emission. By using an undoped cap layer diffusion bonded to the thin disk, the onset of amplified spontaneous emission does not occur as readily as if no cap layer is used, and much larger transverse thin disks can be effectively used as laser gain elements. This invention can be used as a high average power laser for material processing applications as well as for weapon and air defense applications.

Effects of elevated mean and extremely high temperatures on the physio-ecological characteristics of geographically distinctive populations of Cunninghamia lanceolata

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Ting; Jia, Xiaorong; Liao, Huixuan; Peng, Shijia; Peng, Shaolin

2016-12-01

Conventional models for predicting species distribution under global warming scenarios often treat one species as a homogeneous whole. In the present study, we selected Cunninghamia lanceolata (C. lanceolata), a widely distributed species in China, to investigate the physio-ecological responses of five populations under different temperature regimes. The results demonstrate that increased mean temperatures induce increased growth performance among northern populations, which exhibited the greatest germination capacity and largest increase in the overlap between the growth curve and the monthly average temperature. However,tolerance of the southern population to extremely high temperatures was stronger than among the population from the northern region,shown by the best growth and the most stable photosynthetic system of the southern population under extremely high temperature. This result indicates that the growth advantage among northern populations due to increased mean temperatures may be weakened by lower tolerance to extremely high temperatures. This finding is antithetical to the predicted results. The theoretical coupling model constructed here illustrates that the difference in growth between populations at high and low latitudes and altitudes under global warming will decrease because of the frequent occurrence of extremely high temperatures.

Whole-Genome Sequencing of Native Sheep Provides Insights into Rapid Adaptations to Extreme Environments

PubMed Central

Yang, Ji; Li, Wen-Rong; Lv, Feng-Hua; He, San-Gang; Tian, Shi-Lin; Peng, Wei-Feng; Sun, Ya-Wei; Zhao, Yong-Xin; Tu, Xiao-Long; Zhang, Min; Xie, Xing-Long; Wang, Yu-Tao; Li, Jin-Quan; Liu, Yong-Gang; Shen, Zhi-Qiang; Wang, Feng; Liu, Guang-Jian; Lu, Hong-Feng; Kantanen, Juha; Han, Jian-Lin; Li, Meng-Hua; Liu, Ming-Jun

2016-01-01

Global climate change has a significant effect on extreme environments and a profound influence on species survival. However, little is known of the genome-wide pattern of livestock adaptations to extreme environments over a short time frame following domestication. Sheep (Ovis aries) have become well adapted to a diverse range of agroecological zones, including certain extreme environments (e.g., plateaus and deserts), during their post-domestication (approximately 8–9 kya) migration and differentiation. Here, we generated whole-genome sequences from 77 native sheep, with an average effective sequencing depth of ∼5× for 75 samples and ∼42× for 2 samples. Comparative genomic analyses among sheep in contrasting environments, that is, plateau (>4,000 m above sea level) versus lowland (<100 m), high-altitude region (>1500 m) versus low-altitude region (<1300 m), desert (<10 mm average annual precipitation) versus highly humid region (>600 mm), and arid zone (<400 mm) versus humid zone (>400 mm), detected a novel set of candidate genes as well as pathways and GO categories that are putatively associated with hypoxia responses at high altitudes and water reabsorption in arid environments. In addition, candidate genes and GO terms functionally related to energy metabolism and body size variations were identified. This study offers novel insights into rapid genomic adaptations to extreme environments in sheep and other animals, and provides a valuable resource for future research on livestock breeding in response to climate change. PMID:27401233

Estimating the extreme low-temperature event using nonparametric methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

D'Silva, Anisha

This thesis presents a new method of estimating the one-in-N low temperature threshold using a non-parametric statistical method called kernel density estimation applied to daily average wind-adjusted temperatures. We apply our One-in-N Algorithm to local gas distribution companies (LDCs), as they have to forecast the daily natural gas needs of their consumers. In winter, demand for natural gas is high. Extreme low temperature events are not directly related to an LDCs gas demand forecasting, but knowledge of extreme low temperatures is important to ensure that an LDC has enough capacity to meet customer demands when extreme low temperatures are experienced. We present a detailed explanation of our One-in-N Algorithm and compare it to the methods using the generalized extreme value distribution, the normal distribution, and the variance-weighted composite distribution. We show that our One-in-N Algorithm estimates the one-in- N low temperature threshold more accurately than the methods using the generalized extreme value distribution, the normal distribution, and the variance-weighted composite distribution according to root mean square error (RMSE) measure at a 5% level of significance. The One-in- N Algorithm is tested by counting the number of times the daily average wind-adjusted temperature is less than or equal to the one-in- N low temperature threshold.

Typology of end-of-life priorities in Saudi females: averaging analysis and Q-methodology.

PubMed

Hammami, Muhammad M; Hammami, Safa; Amer, Hala A; Khodr, Nesrine A

2016-01-01

Understanding culture-and sex-related end-of-life preferences is essential to provide quality end-of-life care. We have previously explored end-of-life choices in Saudi males and found important culture-related differences and that Q-methodology is useful in identifying intraculture, opinion-based groups. Here, we explore Saudi females' end-of-life choices. A volunteer sample of 68 females rank-ordered 47 opinion statements on end-of-life issues into a nine-category symmetrical distribution. The ranking scores of the statements were analyzed by averaging analysis and Q-methodology. The mean age of the females in the sample was 30.3 years (range, 19-55 years). Among them, 51% reported average religiosity, 78% reported very good health, 79% reported very good life quality, and 100% reported high-school education or more. The extreme five overall priorities were to be able to say the statement of faith, be at peace with God, die without having the body exposed, maintain dignity, and resolve all conflicts. The extreme five overall dis-priorities were to die in the hospital, die well dressed, be informed about impending death by family/friends rather than doctor, die at peak of life, and not know if one has a fatal illness. Q-methodology identified five opinion-based groups with qualitatively different characteristics: "physical and emotional privacy concerned, family caring" (younger, lower religiosity), "whole person" (higher religiosity), "pain and informational privacy concerned" (lower life quality), "decisional privacy concerned" (older, higher life quality), and "life quantity concerned, family dependent" (high life quality, low life satisfaction). Out of the extreme 14 priorities/dis-priorities for each group, 21%-50% were not represented among the extreme 20 priorities/dis-priorities for the entire sample. Consistent with the previously reported findings in Saudi males, transcendence and dying in the hospital were the extreme end-of-life priority and dis-priority, respectively, in Saudi females. Body modesty was a major overall concern; however, concerns about pain, various types of privacy, and life quantity were variably emphasized by the five opinion-based groups but masked by averaging analysis.

Typology of end-of-life priorities in Saudi females: averaging analysis and Q-methodology

PubMed Central

Hammami, Muhammad M; Hammami, Safa; Amer, Hala A; Khodr, Nesrine A

2016-01-01

Background Understanding culture-and sex-related end-of-life preferences is essential to provide quality end-of-life care. We have previously explored end-of-life choices in Saudi males and found important culture-related differences and that Q-methodology is useful in identifying intraculture, opinion-based groups. Here, we explore Saudi females’ end-of-life choices. Methods A volunteer sample of 68 females rank-ordered 47 opinion statements on end-of-life issues into a nine-category symmetrical distribution. The ranking scores of the statements were analyzed by averaging analysis and Q-methodology. Results The mean age of the females in the sample was 30.3 years (range, 19–55 years). Among them, 51% reported average religiosity, 78% reported very good health, 79% reported very good life quality, and 100% reported high-school education or more. The extreme five overall priorities were to be able to say the statement of faith, be at peace with God, die without having the body exposed, maintain dignity, and resolve all conflicts. The extreme five overall dis-priorities were to die in the hospital, die well dressed, be informed about impending death by family/friends rather than doctor, die at peak of life, and not know if one has a fatal illness. Q-methodology identified five opinion-based groups with qualitatively different characteristics: “physical and emotional privacy concerned, family caring” (younger, lower religiosity), “whole person” (higher religiosity), “pain and informational privacy concerned” (lower life quality), “decisional privacy concerned” (older, higher life quality), and “life quantity concerned, family dependent” (high life quality, low life satisfaction). Out of the extreme 14 priorities/dis-priorities for each group, 21%–50% were not represented among the extreme 20 priorities/dis-priorities for the entire sample. Conclusion Consistent with the previously reported findings in Saudi males, transcendence and dying in the hospital were the extreme end-of-life priority and dis-priority, respectively, in Saudi females. Body modesty was a major overall concern; however, concerns about pain, various types of privacy, and life quantity were variably emphasized by the five opinion-based groups but masked by averaging analysis. PMID:27274205

Characterizing the Spatial Contiguity of Extreme Precipitation over the US in the Recent Past

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Touma, D. E.; Swain, D. L.; Diffenbaugh, N. S.

2016-12-01

The spatial characteristics of extreme precipitation over an area can define the hydrologic response in a basin, subsequently affecting the flood risk in the region. Here, we examine the spatial extent of extreme precipitation in the US by defining its "footprint": a contiguous area of rainfall exceeding a certain threshold (e.g., 90th percentile) on a given day. We first characterize the climatology of extreme rainfall footprint sizes across the US from 1980-2015 using Daymet, a high-resolution observational gridded rainfall dataset. We find that there are distinct regional and seasonal differences in average footprint sizes of extreme daily rainfall. In the winter, the Midwest shows footprints exceeding 500,000 sq. km while the Front Range exhibits footprints of 10,000 sq. km. Alternatively, the summer average footprint size is generally smaller and more uniform across the US, ranging from 10,000 sq. km in the Southwest to 100,000 sq. km in Montana and North Dakota. Moreover, we find that there are some significant increasing trends of average footprint size between 1980-2015, specifically in the Southwest in the winter and the Northeast in the spring. While gridded daily rainfall datasets allow for a practical framework in calculating footprint size, this calculation heavily depends on the interpolation methods that have been used in creating the dataset. Therefore, we assess footprint size using the GHCN-Daily station network and use geostatistical methods to define footprints of extreme rainfall directly from station data. Compared to the findings from Daymet, preliminary results using this method show fewer small daily footprint sizes over the US while large footprints are of similar number and magnitude to Daymet. Overall, defining the spatial characteristics of extreme rainfall as well as observed and expected changes in these characteristics allows us to better understand the hydrologic response to extreme rainfall and how to better characterize flood risks.

The Universe Going Green: Extraordinarily Strong [OIII]5007 in Typical Dwarf Galaxies at z~3

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malkan, Matthew Arnold; Cohen, Daniel

2017-01-01

We constructed the average SEDs of U-dropout galaxies in the Subaru Deep Field. This sample contains more than 5000 Lyman-break galaxies at z~3. Their average near- and mid-IR colors were obtained by stacking JHK and IRAC imaging, in bins of stellar mass. At the lowest mass bins an increasingly strong excess flux is seen in the K filter. This excess can reach 1 magnitude in the broadband filter, and we attribute it to strong \\OIII $\\lambda{5007}$ line emission. The equivalent width is extraordinarily high, reaching almost 1000\\Ang\\ for the average z=3 galaxy at an i magnitude of 27. Such extreme [OIII] emission is very rare in the current epoch, only seen in a handful of metal-deficient dwarf starbursts sometimes referred to as ''Green Peas". In contrast, extreme [OIII]--strong enough to dominate the entire broad-band SED--was evidently the norm for faint galaxies at high redshift. We present evidence that these small but numerous galaxies were primarily responsible for the reionization of the Universe.

Climate Prediction Center - Monitoring and Data - Regional Climate Maps:

Science.gov Websites

; Precipitation & Temperature > Regional Climate Maps: USA Menu Weekly 1-Month 3-Month 12-Month Weekly Total Precipitation Average Temperature Extreme Maximum Temperature Extreme Minimum Temperature Departure of Average Temperature from Normal Extreme Apparent Temperature Minimum Wind Chill Temperature

Whole-Genome Sequencing of Native Sheep Provides Insights into Rapid Adaptations to Extreme Environments.

PubMed

Yang, Ji; Li, Wen-Rong; Lv, Feng-Hua; He, San-Gang; Tian, Shi-Lin; Peng, Wei-Feng; Sun, Ya-Wei; Zhao, Yong-Xin; Tu, Xiao-Long; Zhang, Min; Xie, Xing-Long; Wang, Yu-Tao; Li, Jin-Quan; Liu, Yong-Gang; Shen, Zhi-Qiang; Wang, Feng; Liu, Guang-Jian; Lu, Hong-Feng; Kantanen, Juha; Han, Jian-Lin; Li, Meng-Hua; Liu, Ming-Jun

2016-10-01

Global climate change has a significant effect on extreme environments and a profound influence on species survival. However, little is known of the genome-wide pattern of livestock adaptations to extreme environments over a short time frame following domestication. Sheep (Ovis aries) have become well adapted to a diverse range of agroecological zones, including certain extreme environments (e.g., plateaus and deserts), during their post-domestication (approximately 8-9 kya) migration and differentiation. Here, we generated whole-genome sequences from 77 native sheep, with an average effective sequencing depth of ∼5× for 75 samples and ∼42× for 2 samples. Comparative genomic analyses among sheep in contrasting environments, that is, plateau (>4,000 m above sea level) versus lowland (<100 m), high-altitude region (>1500 m) versus low-altitude region (<1300 m), desert (<10 mm average annual precipitation) versus highly humid region (>600 mm), and arid zone (<400 mm) versus humid zone (>400 mm), detected a novel set of candidate genes as well as pathways and GO categories that are putatively associated with hypoxia responses at high altitudes and water reabsorption in arid environments. In addition, candidate genes and GO terms functionally related to energy metabolism and body size variations were identified. This study offers novel insights into rapid genomic adaptations to extreme environments in sheep and other animals, and provides a valuable resource for future research on livestock breeding in response to climate change. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Molecular Biology and Evolution.

The opposite end of the attention deficit hyperactivity disorder continuum: genetic and environmental aetiologies of extremely low ADHD traits.

PubMed

Greven, Corina U; Merwood, Andrew; van der Meer, Jolanda M J; Haworth, Claire M A; Rommelse, Nanda; Buitelaar, Jan K

2016-04-01

Although attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) is thought to reflect a continuously distributed quantitative trait, it is assessed through binary diagnosis or skewed measures biased towards its high, symptomatic extreme. A growing trend is to study the positive tail of normally distributed traits, a promising avenue, for example, to study high intelligence to increase power for gene-hunting for intelligence. However, the emergence of such a 'positive genetics' model has been tempered for ADHD due to poor phenotypic resolution at the low extreme. Overcoming this methodological limitation, we conduct the first study to assess the aetiologies of low extreme ADHD traits. In a population-representative sample of 2,143 twins, the Strength and Weaknesses of ADHD Symptoms and Normal behaviour (SWAN) questionnaire was used to assess ADHD traits on a continuum from low to high. Aetiological influences on extreme ADHD traits were estimated using DeFries-Fulker extremes analysis. ADHD traits were related to behavioural, cognitive and home environmental outcomes using regression. Low extreme ADHD traits were significantly influenced by shared environmental factors (23-35%) but were not significantly heritable. In contrast, high-extreme ADHD traits showed significant heritability (39-51%) but no shared environmental influences. Compared to individuals with high extreme or with average levels of ADHD traits, individuals with low extreme ADHD traits showed fewer internalizing and externalizing behaviour problems, better cognitive performance and more positive behaviours and positive home environmental outcomes. Shared environmental influences on low extreme ADHD traits may reflect passive gene-environment correlation, which arises because parents provide environments as well as passing on genes. Studying the low extreme opens new avenues to study mechanisms underlying previously neglected positive behaviours. This is different from the current deficit-based model of intervention, but congruent with a population-level approach to improving youth wellbeing. © 2015 The Authors. Journal of Child Psychology and Psychiatry published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Association for Child and Adolescent Mental Health.

Extreme values in the Chinese and American stock markets based on detrended fluctuation analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cao, Guangxi; Zhang, Minjia

2015-10-01

This paper focuses on the comparative analysis of extreme values in the Chinese and American stock markets based on the detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) algorithm using the daily data of Shanghai composite index and Dow Jones Industrial Average. The empirical results indicate that the multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA) method is more objective than the traditional percentile method. The range of extreme value of Dow Jones Industrial Average is smaller than that of Shanghai composite index, and the extreme value of Dow Jones Industrial Average is more time clustering. The extreme value of the Chinese or American stock markets is concentrated in 2008, which is consistent with the financial crisis in 2008. Moreover, we investigate whether extreme events affect the cross-correlation between the Chinese and American stock markets using multifractal detrended cross-correlation analysis algorithm. The results show that extreme events have nothing to do with the cross-correlation between the Chinese and American stock markets.

Trends in the components of extreme water levels signal a rotation of winds in strong storms in the eastern Baltic Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pindsoo, Katri; Soomere, Tarmo

2016-04-01

The water level time series and particularly temporal variations in water level extremes usually do not follow any simple rule. Still, the analysis of linear trends in extreme values of surge levels is a convenient tool to obtain a first approximation of the future projections of the risks associated with coastal floodings. We demonstrate how this tool can be used to extract essential information about concealed changes in the forcing factors of seas and oceans. A specific feature of the Baltic Sea is that sequences of even moderate storms may raise the average sea level by almost 1 m for a few weeks. Such events occur once in a few years. They substantially contribute to the extreme water levels in the eastern Baltic Sea: the most devastating coastal floodings occur when a strong storm from unfortunate direction arrives during such an event. We focus on the separation of subtidal (weekly-scale) processes from those which are caused by a single storm and on establishing how much these two kinds of events have contributed to the increase in the extreme water levels in the eastern Baltic Sea. The analysis relies on numerically reconstructed sea levels produced by the RCO (Rossby Center, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute) ocean model for 1961-2005. The reaction of sea surface to single storm events is isolated from the local water level time series using a running average over a fixed interval. The distribution of average water levels has an almost Gaussian shape for averaging lengths from a few days to a few months. The residual (total water level minus the average) can be interpreted as a proxy of the local storm surges. Interestingly, for the 8-day average this residual almost exactly follows the exponential distribution. Therefore, for this averaging length the heights of local storm surges reflect an underlying Poisson process. This feature is universal for the entire eastern Baltic Sea coast. The slopes of the exponential distribution for low and high water levels are different, vary markedly along the coast and provide a useful quantification of the vulnerability of single coastal segments with respect to coastal flooding. The formal linear trends in the extreme values of these water level components exhibit radically different spatial variations. The slopes of the trends in the weekly average are almost constant (~4 cm/decade for 8-day running average) along the entire eastern Baltic Sea coast. This first of all indicates that the duration of storm sequences has increased. The trends for maxima of local storm surge heights represent almost the entire spatial variability in the water level extremes. Their slopes are almost zero at the open Baltic Proper coasts of the Western Estonian archipelago. Therefore, an increase in wind speed in strong storms is unlikely in this area. In contrast, the slopes in question reach 5-7 cm/decade in the eastern Gulf of Finland and Gulf of Riga. This feature suggests that wind direction in strongest storms may have rotated in the northern Baltic Sea.

Characterizing differences in precipitation regimes of extreme wet and dry years: implications for climate change experiments.

PubMed

Knapp, Alan K; Hoover, David L; Wilcox, Kevin R; Avolio, Meghan L; Koerner, Sally E; La Pierre, Kimberly J; Loik, Michael E; Luo, Yiqi; Sala, Osvaldo E; Smith, Melinda D

2015-02-03

Climate change is intensifying the hydrologic cycle and is expected to increase the frequency of extreme wet and dry years. Beyond precipitation amount, extreme wet and dry years may differ in other ways, such as the number of precipitation events, event size, and the time between events. We assessed 1614 long-term (100 year) precipitation records from around the world to identify key attributes of precipitation regimes, besides amount, that distinguish statistically extreme wet from extreme dry years. In general, in regions where mean annual precipitation (MAP) exceeded 1000 mm, precipitation amounts in extreme wet and dry years differed from average years by ~40% and 30%, respectively. The magnitude of these deviations increased to >60% for dry years and to >150% for wet years in arid regions (MAP<500 mm). Extreme wet years were primarily distinguished from average and extreme dry years by the presence of multiple extreme (large) daily precipitation events (events >99th percentile of all events); these occurred twice as often in extreme wet years compared to average years. In contrast, these large precipitation events were rare in extreme dry years. Less important for distinguishing extreme wet from dry years were mean event size and frequency, or the number of dry days between events. However, extreme dry years were distinguished from average years by an increase in the number of dry days between events. These precipitation regime attributes consistently differed between extreme wet and dry years across 12 major terrestrial ecoregions from around the world, from deserts to the tropics. Thus, we recommend that climate change experiments and model simulations incorporate these differences in key precipitation regime attributes, as well as amount into treatments. This will allow experiments to more realistically simulate extreme precipitation years and more accurately assess the ecological consequences. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Changes in extremely hot days under stabilized 1.5 and 2.0 °C global warming scenarios as simulated by the HAPPI multi-model ensemble

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wehner, Michael; Stone, Dáithí; Mitchell, Dann; Shiogama, Hideo; Fischer, Erich; Graff, Lise S.; Kharin, Viatcheslav V.; Lierhammer, Ludwig; Sanderson, Benjamin; Krishnan, Harinarayan

2018-03-01

The half a degree additional warming, prognosis and projected impacts (HAPPI) experimental protocol provides a multi-model database to compare the effects of stabilizing anthropogenic global warming of 1.5 °C over preindustrial levels to 2.0 °C over these levels. The HAPPI experiment is based upon large ensembles of global atmospheric models forced by sea surface temperature and sea ice concentrations plausible for these stabilization levels. This paper examines changes in extremes of high temperatures averaged over three consecutive days. Changes in this measure of extreme temperature are also compared to changes in hot season temperatures. We find that over land this measure of extreme high temperature increases from about 0.5 to 1.5 °C over present-day values in the 1.5 °C stabilization scenario, depending on location and model. We further find an additional 0.25 to 1.0 °C increase in extreme high temperatures over land in the 2.0 °C stabilization scenario. Results from the HAPPI models are consistent with similar results from the one available fully coupled climate model. However, a complicating factor in interpreting extreme temperature changes across the HAPPI models is their diversity of aerosol forcing changes.

Evaluating average and atypical response in radiation effects simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weller, R. A.; Sternberg, A. L.; Massengill, L. W.; Schrimpf, R. D.; Fleetwood, D. M.

2003-12-01

We examine the limits of performing single-event simulations using pre-averaged radiation events. Geant4 simulations show the necessity, for future devices, to supplement current methods with ensemble averaging of device-level responses to physically realistic radiation events. Initial Monte Carlo simulations have generated a significant number of extremal events in local energy deposition. These simulations strongly suggest that proton strikes of sufficient energy, even those that initiate purely electronic interactions, can initiate device response capable in principle of producing single event upset or microdose damage in highly scaled devices.

Trends in 1970-2010 southern California surface maximum temperatures: extremes and heat waves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghebreegziabher, Amanuel T.

Daily maximum temperatures from 1970-2010 were obtained from the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) for 28 South Coast Air Basin (SoCAB) Cooperative Network (COOP) sites. Analyses were carried out on the entire data set, as well as on the 1970-1974 and 2006-2010 sub-periods, including construction of spatial distributions and time-series trends of both summer-average and annual-maximum values and of the frequency of two and four consecutive "daytime" heat wave events. Spatial patterns of average and extreme values showed three areas consistent with climatological SoCAB flow patterns: cold coastal, warm inland low-elevation, and cool further-inland mountain top. Difference (2006-2010 minus 1970-1974) distributions of both average and extreme-value trends were consistent with the shorter period (1970-2005) study of previous study, as they showed the expected inland regional warming and a "reverse-reaction" cooling in low elevation coastal and inland areas open to increasing sea breeze flows. Annual-extreme trends generally showed cooling at sites below 600 m and warming at higher elevations. As the warming trends of the extremes were larger than those of the averages, regional warming thus impacts extremes more than averages. Spatial distributions of hot-day frequencies showed expected maximum at inland low-elevation sites. Regional warming again thus induced increases at both elevated-coastal areas, but low-elevation areas showed reverse-reaction decreases.

Picosecond Pulse Recirculation for High Average Brightness Thomson Scattering-based Gamma-ray Sources

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Semenov, V. A.

2009-06-12

Pulse recirculation has been successfully demonstrated with the interaction laser system of LLNL's Thomson-Radiated Extreme X-ray (T-REX) source. The recirculation increased twenty-eight times the intensity of the light coming out of the laser system, demonstrating the capability of increasing the gamma-ray flux emitted by T-REX. The technical approach demonstrated could conceivably increase the average gamma-ray flux output by up to a hundred times.

Efficiency and multifractality analysis of CSI 300 based on multifractal detrending moving average algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Weijie; Dang, Yaoguo; Gu, Rongbao

2013-03-01

We apply the multifractal detrending moving average (MFDMA) to investigate and compare the efficiency and multifractality of 5-min high-frequency China Securities Index 300 (CSI 300). The results show that the CSI 300 market becomes closer to weak-form efficiency after the introduction of CSI 300 future. We find that the CSI 300 is featured by multifractality and there are less complexity and risk after the CSI 300 index future was introduced. With the shuffling, surrogating and removing extreme values procedures, we unveil that extreme events and fat-distribution are the main origin of multifractality. Besides, we discuss the knotting phenomena in multifractality, and find that the scaling range and the irregular fluctuations for large scales in the Fq(s) vs s plot can cause a knot.

High Satisfaction and Return to Sports After Total Shoulder Arthroplasty in Patients Aged 55 Years and Younger.

PubMed

Garcia, Grant H; Liu, Joseph N; Sinatro, Alec; Wu, Hao-Hua; Dines, Joshua S; Warren, Russell F; Dines, David M; Gulotta, Lawrence V

2017-06-01

Young, active candidates for total shoulder arthroplasty (TSA) are a unique group of patients. Not only do they demand longevity and improved function, but they also desire a return to physical activities. To determine the rate of return to sports in patients aged ≤55 years undergoing TSA. Case series; Level of evidence, 4. This was a retrospective review of consecutive patients who underwent anatomic TSA at a single institution. Exclusion criteria included age at the time of surgery >55 years and <2 years of follow-up. All patients had end-stage osteoarthritis with significant glenohumeral joint space narrowing. The final follow-up consisted of a patient-reported sports questionnaire, American Shoulder and Elbow Surgeons (ASES) score, and visual analog scale (VAS) score. From 70 eligible patients, 59 patients (61 shoulders) were included with an average follow-up of 61.0 months (range, 25-103 months) and average age at the time of surgery of 48.9 years (range, 25-55 years). The average VAS score improved from 5.6 to 0.9 ( P < .001), and the average ASES score improved from 39.3 to 88.4 ( P < .001). Forty-nine procedures (80.3%) were performed for a primary diagnosis of osteoarthritis. Four shoulders returned to the operating room; none were for glenoid loosening. There was a 93.2% satisfaction rate, and 67.7% of patients (n = 40) stated that they underwent their surgery to return to sports. Moreover, patients in 96.4% of shoulders (55/57) restarted at least 1 sport at an average of 6.7 months. Direct rates of return were as follows: fitness sports (97.2%), golf (93.3%), singles tennis (87.5%), swimming (77.7%), basketball (75.0%), and flag football (66.7%). Patients in 47 shoulders (82.4%) returned to a similar or higher level of sports; 90.3% returned to high-demand sports, and 83.8% returned to high upper extremity sports. There was no significant difference in rates of return to sports by body mass index, sex, age, preoperative diagnosis, revision status, and dominant extremity. In patients aged ≤55 years undergoing TSA, there was a 96.4% rate of return to ≥1 previous sports at an average of 6.7 months. Furthermore, at an average follow-up of 61.0 months, no patients needed revision of their glenoid component, despite an 83.8% rate of return to high upper extremity sports. While caution should still be advised in young, active patients undergoing TSA, these results demonstrate a high satisfaction rate and improved ability to return to most sports after surgery.

The influence of wheelchair propulsion technique on upper extremity muscle demand: a simulation study.

PubMed

Rankin, Jeffery W; Kwarciak, Andrew M; Richter, W Mark; Neptune, Richard R

2012-11-01

The majority of manual wheelchair users will experience upper extremity injuries or pain, in part due to the high force requirements, repetitive motion and extreme joint postures associated with wheelchair propulsion. Recent studies have identified cadence, contact angle and peak force as important factors for reducing upper extremity demand during propulsion. However, studies often make comparisons between populations (e.g., able-bodied vs. paraplegic) or do not investigate specific measures of upper extremity demand. The purpose of this study was to use a musculoskeletal model and forward dynamics simulations of wheelchair propulsion to investigate how altering cadence, peak force and contact angle influence individual muscle demand. Forward dynamics simulations of wheelchair propulsion were generated to emulate group-averaged experimental data during four conditions: 1) self-selected propulsion technique, and while 2) minimizing cadence, 3) maximizing contact angle, and 4) minimizing peak force using biofeedback. Simulations were used to determine individual muscle mechanical power and stress as measures of muscle demand. Minimizing peak force and cadence had the lowest muscle power requirements. However, minimizing peak force increased cadence and recovery power, while minimizing cadence increased average muscle stress. Maximizing contact angle increased muscle stress and had the highest muscle power requirements. Minimizing cadence appears to have the most potential for reducing muscle demand and fatigue, which could decrease upper extremity injuries and pain. However, altering any of these variables to extreme values appears to be less effective; instead small to moderate changes may better reduce overall muscle demand. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A longitudinal study of ice hockey in boys aged 8--12.

PubMed

MacNab, R B

1979-03-01

A group of fifteen boys (experimental or competitive) were studied over a five year period of competitive ice hockey beginning at age 8. The subjects were members of a team which averaged 66 games per year, ranging from 50 at age 8 to 78 at age 12. In addition, they practiced twice a week with heavy stress on skating and individual puck handling skills. A second group of eleven boys (control or less competitive) were studied from age 10 to 12. The latter subjects played an average of 25 games per year and practiced once a week. All subjects were measured each year on skating and puck control skills, fitness-performance tests, grip strength, physical work capacity as well as height and weight. The results demonstrate learning curves for skating and puck control tests which, while typical in nature, show extremely high levels of achievement. Fitness-Performance, grip strength and physical work capacity levels of the competitive group are extremely high in comparison with data from other countries.

Warming and wetting signals emerging from analysis of changes in climate extreme indices over South America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Skansi, María de los Milagros; Brunet, Manola; Sigró, Javier; Aguilar, Enric; Arevalo Groening, Juan Andrés; Bentancur, Oscar J.; Castellón Geier, Yaruska Rosa; Correa Amaya, Ruth Leonor; Jácome, Homero; Malheiros Ramos, Andrea; Oria Rojas, Clara; Pasten, Alejandro Max; Sallons Mitro, Sukarni; Villaroel Jiménez, Claudia; Martínez, Rodney; Alexander, Lisa V.; Jones, P. D.

2013-01-01

Here we show and discuss the results of an assessment of changes in both area-averaged and station-based climate extreme indices over South America (SA) for the 1950-2010 and 1969-2009 periods using high-quality daily maximum and minimum temperature and precipitation series. A weeklong regional workshop in Guayaquil (Ecuador) provided the opportunity to extend the current picture of changes in climate extreme indices over SA. Our results provide evidence of warming and wetting across the whole SA since the mid-20th century onwards. Nighttime (minimum) temperature indices show the largest rates of warming (e.g. for tropical nights, cold and warm nights), while daytime (maximum) temperature indices also point to warming (e.g. for cold days, summer days, the annual lowest daytime temperature), but at lower rates than for minimums. Both tails of night-time temperatures have warmed by a similar magnitude, with cold days (the annual lowest nighttime and daytime temperatures) seeing reductions (increases). Trends are strong and moderate (moderate to weak) for regional-averaged (local) indices, most of them pointing to a less cold SA during the day and warmer night-time temperatures. Regionally-averaged precipitation indices show clear wetting and a signature of intensified heavy rain events over the eastern part of the continent. The annual amounts of rainfall are rising strongly over south-east SA (26.41 mm/decade) and Amazonia (16.09 mm/decade), but north-east Brazil and the western part of SA have experienced non-significant decreases. Very wet and extremely days, the annual maximum 5-day and 1-day precipitation show the largest upward trends, indicating an intensified rainfall signal for SA, particularly over Amazonia and south-east SA. Local trends for precipitation extreme indices are in general less coherent spatially, but with more general spatially coherent upward trends in extremely wet days over all SA.

Obtaining the variance of gametic diversity with genomic models

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

It may be possible to use information about the variability among gametes (spermatozoa and ova) to select parents that are more likely than average to produce offspring with extremely high or low breeding values. In this study, statistical formulae were developed to calculate variability among gamet...

Comparison of the Effects of Walking with and without Nordic Pole on Upper Extremity and Lower Extremity Muscle Activation.

PubMed

Shim, Je-Myung; Kwon, Hae-Yeon; Kim, Ha-Roo; Kim, Bo-In; Jung, Ju-Hyeon

2013-12-01

[Purpose] The aim of this study was to assess the effect of Nordic pole walking on the electromyographic activities of upper extremity and lower extremity muscles. [Subjects and Methods] The subjects were randomly divided into two groups as follows: without Nordic pole walking group (n=13) and with Nordic pole walking group (n=13). The EMG data were collected by measurement while the subjects walking on a treadmill for 30 minutes by measuring from one heel strike to the next. [Results] Both the average values and maximum values of the muscle activity of the upper extremity increased in both the group that used Nordic poles and the group that did not use Nordic poles, and the values showed statistically significant differences. There was an increase in the average value for muscle activity of the latissimus dorsi, but the difference was not statistically significant, although there was a statistically significant increase in its maximum value. The average and maximum values for muscle activity of the lower extremity did not show large differences in either group, and the values did not show any statistically significant differences. [Conclusion] The use of Nordic poles by increased muscle activity of the upper extremity compared with regular walking but did not affect the lower extremity.

Comparison of the Effects of Walking with and without Nordic Pole on Upper Extremity and Lower Extremity Muscle Activation

PubMed Central

Shim, Je-myung; Kwon, Hae-yeon; Kim, Ha-roo; Kim, Bo-in; Jung, Ju-hyeon

2014-01-01

[Purpose] The aim of this study was to assess the effect of Nordic pole walking on the electromyographic activities of upper extremity and lower extremity muscles. [Subjects and Methods] The subjects were randomly divided into two groups as follows: without Nordic pole walking group (n=13) and with Nordic pole walking group (n=13). The EMG data were collected by measurement while the subjects walking on a treadmill for 30 minutes by measuring from one heel strike to the next. [Results] Both the average values and maximum values of the muscle activity of the upper extremity increased in both the group that used Nordic poles and the group that did not use Nordic poles, and the values showed statistically significant differences. There was an increase in the average value for muscle activity of the latissimus dorsi, but the difference was not statistically significant, although there was a statistically significant increase in its maximum value. The average and maximum values for muscle activity of the lower extremity did not show large differences in either group, and the values did not show any statistically significant differences. [Conclusion] The use of Nordic poles by increased muscle activity of the upper extremity compared with regular walking but did not affect the lower extremity. PMID:24409018

Grain Yield and Water Use Efficiency in Extremely-Late Sown Winter Wheat Cultivars under Two Irrigation Regimes in the North China Plain.

PubMed

Wang, Bin; Zhang, Yinghua; Hao, Baozhen; Xu, Xuexin; Zhao, Zhigan; Wang, Zhimin; Xue, Qingwu

2016-01-01

Wheat production is threatened by water shortages and groundwater over-draft in the North China Plain (NCP). In recent years, winter wheat has been increasingly sown extremely late in early to mid-November after harvesting cotton or pepper. To improve water use efficiency (WUE) and guide the extremely late sowing practices, a 3-year field experiment was conducted under two irrigation regimes (W1, one-irrigation, 75 mm at jointing; W2, two-irrigation, 75 mm at jointing and 75 mm at anthesis) in 3 cultivars differing in spike size (HS4399, small spike; JM22, medium spike; WM8, large spike). Wheat was sown in early to mid-November at a high seeding rate of 800-850 seeds m(-2). Average yields of 7.42 t ha(-1) and WUE of 1.84 kg m(-3) were achieved with an average seasonal evapotranspiration (ET) of 404 mm. Compared with W2, wheat under W1 did not have yield penalty in 2 of 3 years, and had 7.9% lower seasonal ET and 7.5% higher WUE. The higher WUE and stable yield under W1 was associated with higher 1000-grain weight (TGW) and harvest index (HI). Among the 3 cultivars, JM22 had 5.9%-8.9% higher yield and 4.2%-9.3% higher WUE than WM8 and HS4399. The higher yield in JM22 was attributed mainly to higher HI and TGW due to increased post-anthesis biomass and deeper seasonal soil water extraction. In conclusion, one-irrigation with a medium-sized spike cultivar JM22 could be a useful strategy to maintain yield and high WUE in extremely late-sown winter wheat at a high seeding rate in the NCP.

Effects of lower extremity injuries on aerobic exercise capacity, anaerobic power, and knee isokinetic muscular function in high school soccer players.

PubMed

Ko, Kwang-Jun; Ha, Gi-Chul; Kim, Dong-Woo; Kang, Seol-Jung

2017-10-01

[Purpose] The study investigated the effects of lower extremity injuries on aerobic exercise capacity, anaerobic power, and knee isokinetic muscular function in high school soccer players. [Subjects and Methods] The study assessed U High School soccer players (n=40) in S area, South Korea, divided into 2 groups: a lower extremity injury group (n=16) comprising those with knee and ankle injuries and a control group (n=24) without injury. Aerobic exercise capacity, anaerobic power, and knee isokinetic muscular function were compared and analyzed. [Results] Regarding the aerobic exercise capacity test, significant differences were observed in maximal oxygen uptake and anaerobic threshold between both groups. For the anaerobic power test, no significant difference was observed in peak power and average power between the groups; however, a significant difference in fatigue index was noted. Regarding the knee isokinetic muscular test, no significant difference was noted in knee flexion, extension, and flexion/extension ratio between both groups. [Conclusion] Lower extremity injury was associated with reduced aerobic exercise capacity and a higher fatigue index with respect to anaerobic exercise capacity. Therefore, it seems necessary to establish post-injury training programs that improve aerobic and anaerobic exercise capacity for soccer players who experience lower extremity injury.

FAST TRACK COMMUNICATION: Inhomogeneous charge redistribution in Xe clusters exposed to an intense extreme ultraviolet free electron laser

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iwayama, H.; Sugishima, A.; Nagaya, K.; Yao, M.; Fukuzawa, H.; Motomura, K.; Liu, X.-J.; Yamada, A.; Wang, C.; Ueda, K.; Saito, N.; Nagasono, M.; Tono, K.; Yabashi, M.; Ishikawa, T.; Ohashi, H.; Kimura, H.; Togashi, T.

2010-08-01

The emission of highly charged ions from Xe clusters exposed to intense extreme ultraviolet laser pulses (λ ~ 52 nm) from the free electron laser in Japan was investigated using ion momentum spectroscopy. With increasing average cluster size, we observed multiply charged ions Xez + up to z = 3. From kinetic energy distributions, we found that multiply charged ions were generated near the cluster surface. Our results suggest that charges are inhomogeneously redistributed in the cluster to lower the total energy stored in the clusters.

Impact of increasing heat waves on U.S. ozone episodes in the 2050s: Results from a multimodel analysis using extreme value theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shen, L.; Mickley, L. J.; Gilleland, E.

2016-04-01

We develop a statistical model using extreme value theory to estimate the 2000-2050 changes in ozone episodes across the United States. We model the relationships between daily maximum temperature (Tmax) and maximum daily 8 h average (MDA8) ozone in May-September over 2003-2012 using a Point Process (PP) model. At ~20% of the sites, a marked decrease in the ozone-temperature slope occurs at high temperatures, defined as ozone suppression. The PP model sometimes fails to capture ozone-Tmax relationships, so we refit the ozone-Tmax slope using logistic regression and a generalized Pareto distribution model. We then apply the resulting hybrid-extreme value theory model to projections of Tmax from an ensemble of downscaled climate models. Assuming constant anthropogenic emissions at the present level, we find an average increase of 2.3 d a-1 in ozone episodes (>75 ppbv) across the United States by the 2050s, with a change of +3-9 d a-1 at many sites.

High northern latitude temperature extremes, 1400-1999

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tingley, M. P.; Huybers, P.; Hughen, K. A.

2009-12-01

There is often an interest in determining which interval features the most extreme value of a reconstructed climate field, such as the warmest year or decade in a temperature reconstruction. Previous approaches to this type of question have not fully accounted for the spatial and temporal covariance in the climate field when assessing the significance of extreme values. Here we present results from applying BARSAT, a new, Bayesian approach to reconstructing climate fields, to a 600 year multiproxy temperature data set that covers land areas between 45N and 85N. The end result of the analysis is an ensemble of spatially and temporally complete realizations of the temperature field, each of which is consistent with the observations and the estimated values of the parameters that define the assumed spatial and temporal covariance functions. In terms of the spatial average temperature, 1990-1999 was the warmest decade in the 1400-1999 interval in each of 2000 ensemble members, while 1995 was the warmest year in 98% of the ensemble members. A similar analysis at each node of a regular 5 degree grid gives insight into the spatial distribution of warm temperatures, and reveals that 1995 was anomalously warm in Eurasia, whereas 1998 featured extreme warmth in North America. In 70% of the ensemble members, 1601 featured the coldest spatial average, indicating that the eruption of Huaynaputina in Peru in 1600 (with a volcanic explosivity index of 6) had a major cooling impact on the high northern latitudes. Repeating this analysis at each node reveals the varying impacts of major volcanic eruptions on the distribution of extreme cooling. Finally, we use the ensemble to investigate extremes in the time evolution of centennial temperature trends, and find that in more than half the ensemble members, the greatest rate of change in the spatial mean time series was a cooling centered at 1600. The largest rate of centennial scale warming, however, occurred in the 20th Century in more than 98% of the ensemble members.

Quantifying population exposure to airborne particulate matter during extreme events in California due to climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mahmud, A.; Hixson, M.; Kleeman, M. J.

2012-02-01

The effect of climate change on population-weighted concentrations of particulate matter (PM) during extreme events was studied using the Parallel Climate Model (PCM), the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and the UCD/CIT 3-D photochemical air quality model. A "business as usual" (B06.44) global emissions scenario was dynamically downscaled for the entire state of California between the years 2000-2006 and 2047-2053. Air quality simulations were carried out for 1008 days in each of the present-day and future climate conditions using year-2000 emissions. Population-weighted concentrations of PM0.1, PM2.5, and PM10 total mass, components species, and primary source contributions were calculated for California and three air basins: the Sacramento Valley air basin (SV), the San Joaquin Valley air basin (SJV) and the South Coast Air Basin (SoCAB). Results over annual-average periods were contrasted with extreme events. Climate change between 2000 vs. 2050 did not cause a statistically significant change in annual-average population-weighted PM2.5 mass concentrations within any major sub-region of California in the current study. Climate change did alter the annual-average composition of the airborne particles in the SoCAB, with notable reductions of elemental carbon (EC; -3%) and organic carbon (OC; -3%) due to increased annual-average wind speeds that diluted primary concentrations from gasoline combustion (-3%) and food cooking (-4%). In contrast, climate change caused significant increases in population-weighted PM2.5 mass concentrations in central California during extreme events. The maximum 24-h average PM2.5 concentration experienced by an average person during a ten-year period in the SJV increased by 21% due to enhanced production of secondary particulate matter (manifested as NH4NO3). In general, climate change caused increased stagnation during future extreme pollution events, leading to higher exposure to diesel engines particles (+32%) and wood combustion particles (+14%) when averaging across the population of the entire state. Enhanced stagnation also isolated populations from distant sources such as shipping (-61%) during extreme events. The combination of these factors altered the statewide population-averaged composition of particles during extreme events, with EC increasing by 23%, nitrate increasing by 58%, and sulfate decreasing by 46%.

Quantifying population exposure to airborne particulate matter during extreme events in California due to climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mahmud, A.; Hixson, M.; Kleeman, M. J.

2012-08-01

The effect of climate change on population-weighted concentrations of particulate matter (PM) during extreme pollution events was studied using the Parallel Climate Model (PCM), the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and the UCD/CIT 3-D photochemical air quality model. A "business as usual" (B06.44) global emissions scenario was dynamically downscaled for the entire state of California between the years 2000-2006 and 2047-2053. Air quality simulations were carried out for 1008 days in each of the present-day and future climate conditions using year-2000 emissions. Population-weighted concentrations of PM0.1, PM2.5, and PM10 total mass, components species, and primary source contributions were calculated for California and three air basins: the Sacramento Valley air basin (SV), the San Joaquin Valley air basin (SJV) and the South Coast Air Basin (SoCAB). Results over annual-average periods were contrasted with extreme events. The current study found that the change in annual-average population-weighted PM2.5 mass concentrations due to climate change between 2000 vs. 2050 within any major sub-region in California was not statistically significant. However, climate change did alter the annual-average composition of the airborne particles in the SoCAB, with notable reductions of elemental carbon (EC; -3%) and organic carbon (OC; -3%) due to increased annual-average wind speeds that diluted primary concentrations from gasoline combustion (-3%) and food cooking (-4%). In contrast, climate change caused significant increases in population-weighted PM2.5 mass concentrations in central California during extreme events. The maximum 24-h average PM2.5 concentration experienced by an average person during a ten-yr period in the SJV increased by 21% due to enhanced production of secondary particulate matter (manifested as NH4NO3). In general, climate change caused increased stagnation during future extreme pollution events, leading to higher exposure to diesel engines particles (+32%) and wood combustion particles (+14%) when averaging across the population of the entire state. Enhanced stagnation also isolated populations from distant sources such as shipping (-61%) during extreme events. The combination of these factors altered the statewide population-averaged composition of particles during extreme events, with EC increasing by 23 %, nitrate increasing by 58%, and sulfate decreasing by 46%.

Population-based utilities for upper extremity functions in the setting of tetraplegia.

PubMed

Ram, Ashwin N; Curtin, Catherine M; Chung, Kevin C

2009-11-01

People with tetraplegia face substantial physical and financial hardships. Although upper extremity reconstruction has been advocated for people with tetraplegia, these procedures are markedly underused in the United States. Population-based preference evaluation of upper extremity reconstruction is important to quantify the value of these reconstructive procedures. This study sought to establish the preferences for 3 health states: tetraplegia, tetraplegia with corrected pinch function, and tetraplegia with corrected elbow extension function. A computer-based, time trade-off survey was administered to a cohort of 81 able-bodied second-year medical students who served as a surrogate for the general public. This survey instrument has undergone pilot testing and has established face validity to evaluate the 3 health states of interest. Utilities were calculated based on an estimated 20 years of remaining life. The mean utility for the tetraplegic health state was low. On average, respondents gave up 10.8 +/- 5.0 out of a hypothetical 20 years for perfect health, for a utility of tetraplegia equal to 0.46. For recovery of pinch function, respondents gave up an average of 6.5 +/- 4.3 years, with a corresponding health utility of 0.68. For recovery of elbow extension function, respondents gave up an average of 7.6 +/- 4.5 years, with a corresponding health utility of 0.74. This study established the preferences for 2 upper extremity surgical interventions: tetraplegia with pinch and tetraplegia with elbow extension. The findings from this study place a high value on upper-limb reconstructive procedures with tetraplegia.

Regularised extreme learning machine with misclassification cost and rejection cost for gene expression data classification.

PubMed

Lu, Huijuan; Wei, Shasha; Zhou, Zili; Miao, Yanzi; Lu, Yi

2015-01-01

The main purpose of traditional classification algorithms on bioinformatics application is to acquire better classification accuracy. However, these algorithms cannot meet the requirement that minimises the average misclassification cost. In this paper, a new algorithm of cost-sensitive regularised extreme learning machine (CS-RELM) was proposed by using probability estimation and misclassification cost to reconstruct the classification results. By improving the classification accuracy of a group of small sample which higher misclassification cost, the new CS-RELM can minimise the classification cost. The 'rejection cost' was integrated into CS-RELM algorithm to further reduce the average misclassification cost. By using Colon Tumour dataset and SRBCT (Small Round Blue Cells Tumour) dataset, CS-RELM was compared with other cost-sensitive algorithms such as extreme learning machine (ELM), cost-sensitive extreme learning machine, regularised extreme learning machine, cost-sensitive support vector machine (SVM). The results of experiments show that CS-RELM with embedded rejection cost could reduce the average cost of misclassification and made more credible classification decision than others.

Genetic diversity affects colony survivorship in commercial honey bee colonies

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Honey bee (Apis mellifera) queens mate with unusually high numbers of males (average of approximately 12 drones), although there is much variation among queens. One main consequence of such extreme polyandry is an increased diversity of worker genotypes within a colony, which has been shown empirica...

Scaling of precipitation extremes with temperature in the French Mediterranean region: What explains the hook shape?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Drobinski, P.; Alonzo, B.; Bastin, S.; Silva, N. Da; Muller, C.

2016-04-01

Expected changes to future extreme precipitation remain a key uncertainty associated with anthropogenic climate change. Extreme precipitation has been proposed to scale with the precipitable water content in the atmosphere. Assuming constant relative humidity, this implies an increase of precipitation extremes at a rate of about 7% °C-1 globally as indicated by the Clausius-Clapeyron relationship. Increases faster and slower than Clausius-Clapeyron have also been reported. In this work, we examine the scaling between precipitation extremes and temperature in the present climate using simulations and measurements from surface weather stations collected in the frame of the HyMeX and MED-CORDEX programs in Southern France. Of particular interest are departures from the Clausius-Clapeyron thermodynamic expectation, their spatial and temporal distribution, and their origin. Looking at the scaling of precipitation extreme with temperature, two regimes emerge which form a hook shape: one at low temperatures (cooler than around 15°C) with rates of increase close to the Clausius-Clapeyron rate and one at high temperatures (warmer than about 15°C) with sub-Clausius-Clapeyron rates and most often negative rates. On average, the region of focus does not seem to exhibit super Clausius-Clapeyron behavior except at some stations, in contrast to earlier studies. Many factors can contribute to departure from Clausius-Clapeyron scaling: time and spatial averaging, choice of scaling temperature (surface versus condensation level), and precipitation efficiency and vertical velocity in updrafts that are not necessarily constant with temperature. But most importantly, the dynamical contribution of orography to precipitation in the fall over this area during the so-called "Cevenoles" events, explains the hook shape of the scaling of precipitation extremes.

Black breast cancer survivors experience greater upper extremity disability.

PubMed

Dean, Lorraine T; DeMichele, Angela; LeBlanc, Mously; Stephens-Shields, Alisa; Li, Susan Q; Colameco, Chris; Coursey, Morgan; Mao, Jun J

2015-11-01

Over one-third of breast cancer survivors experience upper extremity disability. Black women present with factors associated with greater upper extremity disability, including: increased body mass index (BMI), more advanced disease stage at diagnosis, and varying treatment type compared with Whites. No prior research has evaluated the relationship between race and upper extremity disability using validated tools and controlling for these factors. Data were drawn from a survey study among 610 women with stage I-III hormone receptor positive breast cancer. The disabilities of the arm, shoulder and hand (QuickDASH) is an 11-item self-administered questionnaire that has been validated for breast cancer survivors to assess global upper extremity function over the past 7 days. Linear regression and mediation analysis estimated the relationships between race, BMI and QuickDASH score, adjusting for demographics and treatment types. Black women (n = 98) had 7.3 points higher average QuickDASH scores than White (n = 512) women (p < 0.001). After adjusting for BMI, age, education, cancer treatment, months since diagnosis, and aromatase inhibitor status, Black women had an average 4-point (95 % confidence interval 0.18-8.01) higher QuickDASH score (p = 0.04) than White women. Mediation analysis suggested that BMI attenuated the association between race and disability by 40 %. Even several years post-treatment, Black breast cancer survivors had greater upper extremity disability, which was partially mediated by higher BMIs. Close monitoring of high BMI Black women may be an important step in reducing disparities in cancer survivorship. More research is needed on the relationship between race, BMI, and upper extremity disability.

A Measurement of the Average Longitudinal Development Profile of Cosmic Ray Air Showers from 1017.5eV to 1020eV by HiRes-II

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hughes, G.

Ultra High Energy Cosmic Rays (UHECRs) have an energy many times greater than that of particles accelerated in colliders. The Extended Air Showers (EAS) resulting from their interaction in the atmosphere give us the opportunity to study not only Cosmic Rays but also these extremely energetic cascades. A method to calculate the Average Longitudinal Shower profile has been applied to the High Resolution Fly's Eye Detector (HiRes) data. A complete detector simulation was used to throw CORSIKA (QGSJET) showers which are then analyzed using the same technique. The main features of the average showers are compared to the Monte Carlo as a function of energy. Systematic errors in the reconstruction of the profile are considered.

Rising Mediterranean Sea Surface Temperatures Amplify Extreme Summer Precipitation in Central Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Volosciuk, Claudia; Maraun, Douglas; Semenov, Vladimir A.; Tilinina, Natalia; Gulev, Sergey K.; Latif, Mojib

2016-08-01

The beginning of the 21st century was marked by a number of severe summer floods in Central Europe associated with extreme precipitation (e.g., Elbe 2002, Oder 2010 and Danube 2013). Extratropical storms, known as Vb-cyclones, cause summer extreme precipitation events over Central Europe and can thus lead to such floodings. Vb-cyclones develop over the Mediterranean Sea, which itself strongly warmed during recent decades. Here we investigate the influence of increased Mediterranean Sea surface temperature (SST) on extreme precipitation events in Central Europe. To this end, we carry out atmosphere model simulations forced by average Mediterranean SSTs during 1970-1999 and 2000-2012. Extreme precipitation events occurring on average every 20 summers in the warmer-SST-simulation (2000-2012) amplify along the Vb-cyclone track compared to those in the colder-SST-simulation (1970-1999), on average by 17% in Central Europe. The largest increase is located southeast of maximum precipitation for both simulated heavy events and historical Vb-events. The responsible physical mechanism is increased evaporation from and enhanced atmospheric moisture content over the Mediterranean Sea. The excess in precipitable water is transported from the Mediterranean Sea to Central Europe causing stronger precipitation extremes over that region. Our findings suggest that Mediterranean Sea surface warming amplifies Central European precipitation extremes.

Teacher Certification in Mississippi: A Broken System

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ratliff, Lindon

2008-01-01

Facing a growing population and the demands of No Child Left Behind, the Mississippi Department of Education (MDE) is finding itself destitute in the recruitment and certification of highly-qualified educators. Because of extremely low average salaries and the existence of critical-need areas, the MDE has decided over the past decade to create an…

The Mack Lake fire.

Treesearch

Albert J. Simard; Donald A. Haines; Richard W. Blank; John S. Frost

1983-01-01

Describes the Mack Lake Fire near Mio, Michigan. Few documented wildfires have exceeded its average spread rate (2 mi/h) and energy release rate (8,800 Btu/ft/sec). The extreme behavior resulted from high winds, low humidity, low fuel moisture and jack pine fuels. Horizontal roll vortices may have contributed to the death of one firefighter.

Quasi-supercontinuum source in the extreme ultraviolet using multiple frequency combs from high-harmonic generation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wünsche, Martin; Fuchs, Silvio; Aull, Stefan

A quasi-supercontinuum source in the extreme ultraviolet (XUV) is demonstrated using a table-top femtosecond laser and a tunable optical parametric amplifier (OPA) as a driver for high-harmonic generation (HHG). The harmonic radiation, which is usually a comb of odd multiples of the fundamental frequency, is generated by near-infrared (NIR) laser pulses from the OPA. A quasi-continuous XUV spectrum in the range of 30 to 100 eV is realized by averaging over multiple harmonic comb spectra with slightly different fundamental frequencies and thus different spectral spacing between the individual harmonics. The driving laser wavelength is swept automatically during an averaging timemore » period. With a total photon flux of 4×10 9 photons/s in the range of 30 eV to 100 eV and 1×10 7 photons/s in the range of 100 eV to 200 eV, the resulting quasi-supercontinuum XUV source is suited for applications such as XUV coherence tomography (XCT) or near-edge absorption fine structure spectroscopy (NEXAFS).« less

Quasi-supercontinuum source in the extreme ultraviolet using multiple frequency combs from high-harmonic generation

DOE PAGES

Wünsche, Martin; Fuchs, Silvio; Aull, Stefan; ...

2017-03-16

A quasi-supercontinuum source in the extreme ultraviolet (XUV) is demonstrated using a table-top femtosecond laser and a tunable optical parametric amplifier (OPA) as a driver for high-harmonic generation (HHG). The harmonic radiation, which is usually a comb of odd multiples of the fundamental frequency, is generated by near-infrared (NIR) laser pulses from the OPA. A quasi-continuous XUV spectrum in the range of 30 to 100 eV is realized by averaging over multiple harmonic comb spectra with slightly different fundamental frequencies and thus different spectral spacing between the individual harmonics. The driving laser wavelength is swept automatically during an averaging timemore » period. With a total photon flux of 4×10 9 photons/s in the range of 30 eV to 100 eV and 1×10 7 photons/s in the range of 100 eV to 200 eV, the resulting quasi-supercontinuum XUV source is suited for applications such as XUV coherence tomography (XCT) or near-edge absorption fine structure spectroscopy (NEXAFS).« less

A new climate index controlling winter wave activity along the Atlantic coast of Europe: The West Europe Pressure Anomaly

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Castelle, Bruno; Dodet, Guillaume; Masselink, Gerd; Scott, Tim

2017-02-01

A pioneering and replicable method based on a 66-year numerical weather and wave hindcast is developed to optimize a climate index based on the sea level pressure (SLP) that best explains winter wave height variability along the coast of western Europe, from Portugal to UK (36-52°N). The resulting so-called Western Europe Pressure Anomaly (WEPA) is based on the sea level pressure gradient between the stations Valentia (Ireland) and Santa Cruz de Tenerife (Canary Islands). The WEPA positive phase reflects an intensified and southward shifted SLP difference between the Icelandic low and the Azores high, driving severe storms that funnel high-energy waves toward western Europe southward of 52°N. WEPA outscores by 25-150% the other leading atmospheric modes in explaining winter-averaged significant wave height, and even by a largest amount the winter-averaged extreme wave heights. WEPA is also the only index capturing the 2013/2014 extreme winter that caused widespread coastal erosion and flooding in western Europe.

Extreme events in total ozone over Arosa - Part 1: Application of extreme value theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rieder, H. E.; Staehelin, J.; Maeder, J. A.; Peter, T.; Ribatet, M.; Davison, A. C.; Stübi, R.; Weihs, P.; Holawe, F.

2010-10-01

In this study ideas from extreme value theory are for the first time applied in the field of stratospheric ozone research, because statistical analysis showed that previously used concepts assuming a Gaussian distribution (e.g. fixed deviations from mean values) of total ozone data do not adequately address the structure of the extremes. We show that statistical extreme value methods are appropriate to identify ozone extremes and to describe the tails of the Arosa (Switzerland) total ozone time series. In order to accommodate the seasonal cycle in total ozone, a daily moving threshold was determined and used, with tools from extreme value theory, to analyse the frequency of days with extreme low (termed ELOs) and high (termed EHOs) total ozone at Arosa. The analysis shows that the Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) provides an appropriate model for the frequency distribution of total ozone above or below a mathematically well-defined threshold, thus providing a statistical description of ELOs and EHOs. The results show an increase in ELOs and a decrease in EHOs during the last decades. The fitted model represents the tails of the total ozone data set with high accuracy over the entire range (including absolute monthly minima and maxima), and enables a precise computation of the frequency distribution of ozone mini-holes (using constant thresholds). Analyzing the tails instead of a small fraction of days below constant thresholds provides deeper insight into the time series properties. Fingerprints of dynamical (e.g. ENSO, NAO) and chemical features (e.g. strong polar vortex ozone loss), and major volcanic eruptions, can be identified in the observed frequency of extreme events throughout the time series. Overall the new approach to analysis of extremes provides more information on time series properties and variability than previous approaches that use only monthly averages and/or mini-holes and mini-highs.

Extreme events in total ozone over Arosa - Part 1: Application of extreme value theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rieder, H. E.; Staehelin, J.; Maeder, J. A.; Peter, T.; Ribatet, M.; Davison, A. C.; Stübi, R.; Weihs, P.; Holawe, F.

2010-05-01

In this study ideas from extreme value theory are for the first time applied in the field of stratospheric ozone research, because statistical analysis showed that previously used concepts assuming a Gaussian distribution (e.g. fixed deviations from mean values) of total ozone data do not adequately address the structure of the extremes. We show that statistical extreme value methods are appropriate to identify ozone extremes and to describe the tails of the Arosa (Switzerland) total ozone time series. In order to accommodate the seasonal cycle in total ozone, a daily moving threshold was determined and used, with tools from extreme value theory, to analyse the frequency of days with extreme low (termed ELOs) and high (termed EHOs) total ozone at Arosa. The analysis shows that the Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) provides an appropriate model for the frequency distribution of total ozone above or below a mathematically well-defined threshold, thus providing a statistical description of ELOs and EHOs. The results show an increase in ELOs and a decrease in EHOs during the last decades. The fitted model represents the tails of the total ozone data set with high accuracy over the entire range (including absolute monthly minima and maxima), and enables a precise computation of the frequency distribution of ozone mini-holes (using constant thresholds). Analyzing the tails instead of a small fraction of days below constant thresholds provides deeper insight into the time series properties. Fingerprints of dynamical (e.g. ENSO, NAO) and chemical features (e.g. strong polar vortex ozone loss), and major volcanic eruptions, can be identified in the observed frequency of extreme events throughout the time series. Overall the new approach to analysis of extremes provides more information on time series properties and variability than previous approaches that use only monthly averages and/or mini-holes and mini-highs.

Quantified moving average strategy of crude oil futures market based on fuzzy logic rules and genetic algorithms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Xiaojia; An, Haizhong; Wang, Lijun; Guan, Qing

2017-09-01

The moving average strategy is a technical indicator that can generate trading signals to assist investment. While the trading signals tell the traders timing to buy or sell, the moving average cannot tell the trading volume, which is a crucial factor for investment. This paper proposes a fuzzy moving average strategy, in which the fuzzy logic rule is used to determine the strength of trading signals, i.e., the trading volume. To compose one fuzzy logic rule, we use four types of moving averages, the length of the moving average period, the fuzzy extent, and the recommend value. Ten fuzzy logic rules form a fuzzy set, which generates a rating level that decides the trading volume. In this process, we apply genetic algorithms to identify an optimal fuzzy logic rule set and utilize crude oil futures prices from the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) as the experiment data. Each experiment is repeated for 20 times. The results show that firstly the fuzzy moving average strategy can obtain a more stable rate of return than the moving average strategies. Secondly, holding amounts series is highly sensitive to price series. Thirdly, simple moving average methods are more efficient. Lastly, the fuzzy extents of extremely low, high, and very high are more popular. These results are helpful in investment decisions.

Dialogue on Climate, Water, Energy and Human Security in Africa

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-07-01

winter periods.  The influence of the  ocean  mass on the coastal areas can be seen, with slightly lower increases in  average temperatures.       Figure 1...adaptation 1 1’ ~ + -foradaptllion m \\...A..AJ to reduce risk .... :’\\: " -••• \\ Warming Extreme Extreme Damaging Ocean Sea surface I Precipitation Sea...level Risk level with Risk level with trend temperature precipitation cyclone acidification temperature high adaptation cuJTentadaptation Institutions

[Dependence of anti-inflammatory effects of high peak-power pulsed electromagnetic radiation of extremely high frequency on exposure parameters].

PubMed

Gapeev, A B; Mikhaĭlik, E N; Rubanik, A V; Cheremis, N K

2007-01-01

A pronounced anti-inflammatory effect of high peak-power pulsed electromagnetic radiation of extremely high frequency was shown for the first time in a model of zymosan-induced footpad edema in mice. Exposure to radiation of specific parameters (35, 27 GHz, peak power 20 kW, pulse widths 400-600 ns, pulse repetition frequency 5-500 Hz) decreased the exudative edema and local hyperthermia by 20% compared to the control. The kinetics and the magnitude of the anti-inflammatory effect were comparable with those induced by sodium diclofenac at a dose of 3 mg/kg. It was found that the anti-inflammatory effect linearly increased with increasing pulse width at a fixed pulse repetition frequency and had threshold dependence on the average incident power density of the radiation at a fixed pulse width. When animals were whole-body exposed in the far-field zone of radiator, the optimal exposure duration was 20 min. Increasing the average incident power density upon local exposure of the inflamed paw accelerated both the development of the anti-inflammatory effect and the reactivation time. The results obtained will undoubtedly be of great importance in the hygienic standardization of pulsed electromagnetic radiation and in further studies of the mechanisms of its biological action.

CHILDREN HOSPITALIZED WITH LOWER EXTREMITY FRACTURES IN THE UNITED STATES IN 2006: A POPULATION-BASED APPROACH

PubMed Central

Gao, Yubo

2011-01-01

OBJECTIVE The purpose of this study was to examine the demographic and hospitalization characteristics of children hospitalized with lower extremity fractures in the United States in 2006. METHODS Children aged 0 to 20 years with a diagnosis of lower extremity fracture in the 2006 Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project Kids’ Inpatient Database (KID) were included. Lower extremity fractures were defined by International Classification of Diseases, 9th Revision, Clinical Modification codes 820-829 under “Injury and Poisoning (800-999).” Patient demographic and hospitalization-related data were analyzed by chi-square testing and unbalanced analysis of variance. RESULTS There were more boys than girls with lower extremity fractures and 53% had private insurance as their primary payer. About one half of the children were between the ages of 13 and 20 years, but all ages were represented from age 0 to 20. White children accounted for 56%. Urban hospitalizations accounted for 93% of cases and 66 percent of admissions were to teaching hospitals. All patients had an average length of stay (LOS) 4.04 days, and infant patients had the longest average LOS of 5.46 days. The average number of diagnoses per patient was 3.07, and the average number of procedures per patient was 2.21. The average charge per discharge was $35,236, and the oldest patients had the largest average charge of $41,907. The average number of comorbidities increased with increasing patient age. There was a 55.6% greater mortality risk in non-teaching hospitals than in teaching hospitals and there was at least ten times the mortality risk in rural hospitals than in urban hospitals. CONCLUSIONS This study provides an understanding of the demographic and hospitalization characteristics of children with lower extremity fractures in the United States in 2006. This information may be useful in implementing measures to help prevent similar injuries in the future. Further research is required to determine causality of the associations found including increased mortality risk for this population at rural and non-teaching hospitals. PMID:22096438

Children hospitalized with lower extremity fractures in the United States in 2006: a population-based approach.

PubMed

Gao, Yubo

2011-01-01

The purpose of this study was to examine the demographic and hospitalization characteristics of children hospitalized with lower extremity fractures in the United States in 2006. Children aged 0 to 20 years with a diagnosis of lower extremity fracture in the 2006 Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project Kids' Inpatient Database (KID) were included. Lower extremity fractures were defined by International Classification of Diseases, 9th Revision, Clinical Modification codes 820-829 under "Injury and Poisoning (800-999)." Patient demographic and hospitalization-related data were analyzed by chi-square testing and unbalanced analysis of variance. There were more boys than girls with lower extremity fractures and 53% had private insurance as their primary payer. About one half of the children were between the ages of 13 and 20 years, but all ages were represented from age 0 to 20. White children accounted for 56%. Urban hospitalizations accounted for 93% of cases and 66 percent of admissions were to teaching hospitals. All patients had an average length of stay (LOS) 4.04 days, and infant patients had the longest average LOS of 5.46 days. The average number of diagnoses per patient was 3.07, and the average number of procedures per patient was 2.21. The average charge per discharge was $35,236, and the oldest patients had the largest average charge of $41,907. The average number of comorbidities increased with increasing patient age. There was a 55.6% greater mortality risk in non-teaching hospitals than in teaching hospitals and there was at least ten times the mortality risk in rural hospitals than in urban hospitals. This study provides an understanding of the demographic and hospitalization characteristics of children with lower extremity fractures in the United States in 2006. This information may be useful in implementing measures to help prevent similar injuries in the future. Further research is required to determine causality of the associations found including increased mortality risk for this population at rural and non-teaching hospitals.

Generation of µW level plateau harmonics at high repetition rate.

PubMed

Hädrich, S; Krebs, M; Rothhardt, J; Carstens, H; Demmler, S; Limpert, J; Tünnermann, A

2011-09-26

The process of high harmonic generation allows for coherent transfer of infrared laser light to the extreme ultraviolet spectral range opening a variety of applications. The low conversion efficiency of this process calls for optimization or higher repetition rate intense ultrashort pulse lasers. Here we present state-of-the-art fiber laser systems for the generation of high harmonics up to 1 MHz repetition rate. We perform measurements of the average power with a calibrated spectrometer and achieved µW harmonics between 45 nm and 61 nm (H23-H17) at a repetition rate of 50 kHz. Additionally, we show the potential for few-cycle pulses at high average power and repetition rate that may enable water-window harmonics at unprecedented repetition rate. © 2011 Optical Society of America

Rising Mediterranean Sea Surface Temperatures Amplify Extreme Summer Precipitation in Central Europe

PubMed Central

Volosciuk, Claudia; Maraun, Douglas; Semenov, Vladimir A.; Tilinina, Natalia; Gulev, Sergey K.; Latif, Mojib

2016-01-01

The beginning of the 21st century was marked by a number of severe summer floods in Central Europe associated with extreme precipitation (e.g., Elbe 2002, Oder 2010 and Danube 2013). Extratropical storms, known as Vb-cyclones, cause summer extreme precipitation events over Central Europe and can thus lead to such floodings. Vb-cyclones develop over the Mediterranean Sea, which itself strongly warmed during recent decades. Here we investigate the influence of increased Mediterranean Sea surface temperature (SST) on extreme precipitation events in Central Europe. To this end, we carry out atmosphere model simulations forced by average Mediterranean SSTs during 1970–1999 and 2000–2012. Extreme precipitation events occurring on average every 20 summers in the warmer-SST-simulation (2000–2012) amplify along the Vb-cyclone track compared to those in the colder-SST-simulation (1970–1999), on average by 17% in Central Europe. The largest increase is located southeast of maximum precipitation for both simulated heavy events and historical Vb-events. The responsible physical mechanism is increased evaporation from and enhanced atmospheric moisture content over the Mediterranean Sea. The excess in precipitable water is transported from the Mediterranean Sea to Central Europe causing stronger precipitation extremes over that region. Our findings suggest that Mediterranean Sea surface warming amplifies Central European precipitation extremes. PMID:27573802

Research on HDR image fusion algorithm based on Laplace pyramid weight transform with extreme low-light CMOS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guan, Wen; Li, Li; Jin, Weiqi; Qiu, Su; Zou, Yan

2015-10-01

Extreme-Low-Light CMOS has been widely applied in the field of night-vision as a new type of solid image sensor. But if the illumination in the scene has drastic changes or the illumination is too strong, Extreme-Low-Light CMOS can't both clearly present the high-light scene and low-light region. According to the partial saturation problem in the field of night-vision, a HDR image fusion algorithm based on the Laplace Pyramid was researched. The overall gray value and the contrast of the low light image is very low. We choose the fusion strategy based on regional average gradient for the top layer of the long exposure image and short exposure image, which has rich brightness and textural features. The remained layers which represent the edge feature information of the target are based on the fusion strategy based on regional energy. In the process of source image reconstruction with Laplacian pyramid image, we compare the fusion results with four kinds of basal images. The algorithm is tested using Matlab and compared with the different fusion strategies. We use information entropy, average gradient and standard deviation these three objective evaluation parameters for the further analysis of the fusion result. Different low illumination environment experiments show that the algorithm in this paper can rapidly get wide dynamic range while keeping high entropy. Through the verification of this algorithm features, there is a further application prospect of the optimized algorithm. Keywords: high dynamic range imaging, image fusion, multi-exposure image, weight coefficient, information fusion, Laplacian pyramid transform.

Preventing lower extremity injury in elite orienteerers: study protocol for a randomised controlled trial

PubMed Central

Halvarsson, Bodil

2018-01-01

Background The high physical load associated with running through uneven terrain contributes toorienteerers being exposed to high injury risk, where the majority of injuries are located in the lower extremities. Specific training programmes have been effective at reducing injury risk in sports. Yet no trial has been conducted in elite orienteering. The aim of this study is to investigate the effectiveness of a specific training programme in preventing lower extremity injury in adult elite orienteerers. Study design Randomised controlled trial (RCT). Methods Seventy-two Swedish elite orienteerers, aged 18–40 years, are allocated to an intervention or control group. The intervention group performs four specific exercises, with three difficult levels intensified every second week over the first 4 weeks, targeting strength, flexibility and coordination of the lower extremity. The exercises are completed four times a week (10 min per session) in conjunction with normal training over 14 weeks. Injury data are collected every second week using a valid injury questionnaire distributed by text messages over 14 weeks. The primary outcome is number of substantial injuries in the lower extremity. The secondary outcomes are incidence of ankle sprains and the average substantial injury prevalence across 14 weeks. Discussion Due to high injury risk and lack of injury prevention trials in orienteering, an RCT investigating the effect of a specific exercise programme in preventing lower extremity injury is warranted. The results of this trial will be beneficial to orienteerers, clubs and federations, and increase our understanding on how lower extremity injuries can be prevented in a physically challenging sport. Trial registration number NCT03408925. PMID:29707231

A Cost-Benefit Analysis for Per-Student Expenditures and Academic Achievement

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Womack, Sid T.; Roberts, Kerry; Bell, C. David; Womack, Karen

2015-01-01

Cost-benefit correlations have been subject to "selective sampling" in the media. Usually extremes of data from a very few high-funding and low-funding states are cited in the media to construct the case that there is no relationship between economic inputs and academic outputs. This study, using average per-pupil expenditures and ACT…

Divergent Development of Manual Skills in Children Who Are Blind or Sighted

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brambring, Michael

2007-01-01

This empirical study compared the average ages at which four children with congenital blindness acquired 32 fine motor skills with age norms for sighted children. The results indicated that the children experienced extreme developmental delays in the acquisition of manual skills and a high degree of variability in developmental delays within and…

Climatological characteristics in the extreme hyper-arid region of Pampas de La Joya, Peru. Astrobiological approach in four years of observation: 2004-2008

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Valdivia-Silva, Julio E.; Navarro-González, Rafael; Fletcher, Lauren; Pérez-Montaño, Saúl; Condori-Apaza, Reneé; Ortega-Gutiérrez, Fernando; McKay, Christopher

2012-01-01

This study reports the environmental conditions of temperature, moisture and radiation for four years (May 2004 to July 2008) in the area known as Pampas de La Joya in southern Peru, which recently has been considered as a new Mars analogue. The period of evaluation includes the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) during the months of September 2006 to March 2007, which, despite not having catastrophic effects like its predecessor on 1997-1998, showed an interesting increase in humidity. Our data describe the extreme conditions present in the region and their relationship with the presence of potential habitats that could allow for the survival of micro-organisms. The average environmental temperature was 18.9°C, with a maximum of 35.9°C and a minimum of -4.5°C. The annual average incident solar radiation was 508 W m-2, with high near 1060 W m-2 at noon during the driest period between September and March. The average relative humidity (RH) was 29.5, 20.1 and 20.4% for air, soil and rock, respectively. The RH had higher values at night due to fog during the months of June and August, and during the early morning between December and March. During the months of ENSO event there were four episodes of precipitation (1.1, 1.5, 2.0 and 0.9 mm), of which three increased soil and rock moisture on an average more than 45% and persisted for over 15 days after precipitation, while the atmospheric environment had no significant variations. Finally, quartz rocks and evaporite minerals colonized with micro-organisms were found as the only micro-habitats, in this region, capable of supporting life in this extreme environment.

Early spring, severe frost events, and drought induce rapid carbon loss in high elevation meadows.

PubMed

Arnold, Chelsea; Ghezzehei, Teamrat A; Berhe, Asmeret Asefaw

2014-01-01

By the end of the 20th century, the onset of spring in the Sierra Nevada mountain range of California has been occurring on average three weeks earlier than historic records. Superimposed on this trend is an increase in the presence of highly anomalous "extreme" years, where spring arrives either significantly late or early. The timing of the onset of continuous snowpack coupled to the date at which the snowmelt season is initiated play an important role in the development and sustainability of mountain ecosystems. In this study, we assess the impact of extreme winter precipitation variation on aboveground net primary productivity and soil respiration over three years (2011 to 2013). We found that the duration of snow cover, particularly the timing of the onset of a continuous snowpack and presence of early spring frost events contributed to a dramatic change in ecosystem processes. We found an average 100% increase in soil respiration in 2012 and 2103, compared to 2011, and an average 39% decline in aboveground net primary productivity observed over the same time period. The overall growing season length increased by 57 days in 2012 and 61 days in 2013. These results demonstrate the dependency of these keystone ecosystems on a stable climate and indicate that even small changes in climate can potentially alter their resiliency.

Coronae on stars

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Haisch, B. M.

1986-01-01

Three lines of evidence are noted to point to a flare heating source for stellar coronae: a strong correlation between time-averaged flare energy release and coronal X-ray luminosity, the high temperature flare-like component of the spectral signature of coronal X-ray emission, and the observed short time scale variability that indicates continuous flare activity. It is presently suggested that flares may represent only the extreme high energy tail of a continuous distribution of coronal energy release events.

Optimal bounds and extremal trajectories for time averages in dynamical systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tobasco, Ian; Goluskin, David; Doering, Charles

2017-11-01

For systems governed by differential equations it is natural to seek extremal solution trajectories, maximizing or minimizing the long-time average of a given quantity of interest. A priori bounds on optima can be proved by constructing auxiliary functions satisfying certain point-wise inequalities, the verification of which does not require solving the underlying equations. We prove that for any bounded autonomous ODE, the problems of finding extremal trajectories on the one hand and optimal auxiliary functions on the other are strongly dual in the sense of convex duality. As a result, auxiliary functions provide arbitrarily sharp bounds on optimal time averages. Furthermore, nearly optimal auxiliary functions provide volumes in phase space where maximal and nearly maximal trajectories must lie. For polynomial systems, such functions can be constructed by semidefinite programming. We illustrate these ideas using the Lorenz system, producing explicit volumes in phase space where extremal trajectories are guaranteed to reside. Supported by NSF Award DMS-1515161, Van Loo Postdoctoral Fellowships, and the John Simon Guggenheim Foundation.

An investigation into the vector ellipticity of extremely low frequency magnetic fields from appliances in UK homes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ainsbury, Elizabeth A.; Conein, Emma; Henshaw, Denis L.

2005-07-01

Elliptically polarized magnetic fields induce higher currents in the body compared with their plane polarized counterparts. This investigation examines the degree of vector ellipticity of extremely low frequency magnetic fields (ELF-MFs) in the home, with regard to the adverse health effects reportedly associated with ELF-MFs, for instance childhood leukaemia. Tri-axial measurements of the magnitude and phase of the 0-3000 Hz magnetic fields, produced by 226 domestic mains-fed appliances of 32 different types, were carried out in 16 homes in Worcestershire in the summer of 2004. Magnetic field strengths were low, with average (RMS) values of 0.03 ± 0.02 µT across all residences. In contrast, background field ellipticities were high, on average 47 ± 11%. Microwave and electric ovens produced the highest ellipticities: mean respective values of 21 ± 21% and 21 ± 17% were observed 20 cm away from these appliances. There was a negative correlation between field strength and field polarization, which we attribute to the higher relative field contribution close to each individual (single-phase) appliance. The measurements demonstrate that domestic magnetic fields are extremely complex and cannot simply be characterized by traditional measurements such as time-weighted average or peak exposure levels. We conclude that ellipticity should become a relevant metric for future epidemiological studies of health and ELF-MF exposure. This work is supported by the charity CHILDREN with LEUKAEMIA, registered charity number 298405.

Limits to the thermal tolerance of corals adapted to a highly fluctuating, naturally extreme temperature environment

PubMed Central

Schoepf, Verena; Stat, Michael; Falter, James L.; McCulloch, Malcolm T.

2015-01-01

Naturally extreme temperature environments can provide important insights into the processes underlying coral thermal tolerance. We determined the bleaching resistance of Acropora aspera and Dipsastraea sp. from both intertidal and subtidal environments of the naturally extreme Kimberley region in northwest Australia. Here tides of up to 10 m can cause aerial exposure of corals and temperatures as high as 37 °C that fluctuate daily by up to 7 °C. Control corals were maintained at ambient nearshore temperatures which varied diurnally by 4-5 °C, while treatment corals were exposed to similar diurnal variations and heat stress corresponding to ~20 degree heating days. All corals hosted Symbiodinium clade C independent of treatment or origin. Detailed physiological measurements showed that these corals were nevertheless highly sensitive to daily average temperatures exceeding their maximum monthly mean of ~31 °C by 1 °C for only a few days. Generally, Acropora was much more susceptible to bleaching than Dipsastraea and experienced up to 75% mortality, whereas all Dipsastraea survived. Furthermore, subtidal corals, which originated from a more thermally stable environment compared to intertidal corals, were more susceptible to bleaching. This demonstrates that while highly fluctuating temperatures enhance coral resilience to thermal stress, they do not provide immunity to extreme heat stress events. PMID:26627576

Limits to the thermal tolerance of corals adapted to a highly fluctuating, naturally extreme temperature environment.

PubMed

Schoepf, Verena; Stat, Michael; Falter, James L; McCulloch, Malcolm T

2015-12-02

Naturally extreme temperature environments can provide important insights into the processes underlying coral thermal tolerance. We determined the bleaching resistance of Acropora aspera and Dipsastraea sp. from both intertidal and subtidal environments of the naturally extreme Kimberley region in northwest Australia. Here tides of up to 10 m can cause aerial exposure of corals and temperatures as high as 37 °C that fluctuate daily by up to 7 °C. Control corals were maintained at ambient nearshore temperatures which varied diurnally by 4-5 °C, while treatment corals were exposed to similar diurnal variations and heat stress corresponding to ~20 degree heating days. All corals hosted Symbiodinium clade C independent of treatment or origin. Detailed physiological measurements showed that these corals were nevertheless highly sensitive to daily average temperatures exceeding their maximum monthly mean of ~31 °C by 1 °C for only a few days. Generally, Acropora was much more susceptible to bleaching than Dipsastraea and experienced up to 75% mortality, whereas all Dipsastraea survived. Furthermore, subtidal corals, which originated from a more thermally stable environment compared to intertidal corals, were more susceptible to bleaching. This demonstrates that while highly fluctuating temperatures enhance coral resilience to thermal stress, they do not provide immunity to extreme heat stress events.

Regional warming of hot extremes accelerated by surface energy fluxes consistent with drying soils

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Donat, M.; Pitman, A.; Seneviratne, S. I.

2017-12-01

Strong regional differences exist in how hot temperature extremes increase under global warming. Using an ensemble of coupled climate models, we examine the regional warming rates of hot extremes relative to annual average warming rates in the same regions. We identify hotspots of accelerated warming of model-simulated hot extremes in Europe, North America, South America and Southeast China. These hotspots indicate where the warm tail of a distribution of temperatures increases faster than the average and are robust across most CMIP5 models. Exploring the conditions on the specific day the hot extreme occurs demonstrates the hotspots are explained by changes in the surface energy fluxes consistent with drying soils. Furthermore, in these hotspot regions we find a relationship between the temperature - heat flux correlation under current climate conditions and the magnitude of future projected changes in hot extremes, pointing to a potential emergent constraint for simulations of future hot extremes. However, the model-simulated accelerated warming of hot extremes appears inconsistent with observations of the past 60 years, except over Europe. The simulated acceleration of hot extremes may therefore be unreliable, a result that necessitates a re-evaluation of how climate models resolve the relevant terrestrial processes.

Analysis of extreme precipitation characteristics in low mountain areas based on three-dimensional copulas—taking Kuandian County as an example

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Cailin; Ren, Xuehui; Li, Ying

2017-04-01

We defined the threshold of extreme precipitation using detrended fluctuation analysis based on daily precipitation during 1955-2013 in Kuandian County, Liaoning Province. Three-dimensional copulas were introduced to analyze the characteristics of four extreme precipitation factors: the annual extreme precipitation day, extreme precipitation amount, annual average extreme precipitation intensity, and extreme precipitation rate of contribution. The results show that (1) the threshold is 95.0 mm, extreme precipitation events generally occur 1-2 times a year, the average extreme precipitation intensity is 100-150 mm, and the extreme precipitation amount is 100-270 mm accounting for 10 to 37 % of annual precipitation. (2) The generalized extreme value distribution, extreme value distribution, and generalized Pareto distribution are suitable for fitting the distribution function for each element of extreme precipitation. The Ali-Mikhail-Haq (AMH) copula function reflects the joint characteristics of extreme precipitation factors. (3) The return period of the three types has significant synchronicity, and the joint return period and co-occurrence return period have long delay when the return period of the single factor is long. This reflects the inalienability of extreme precipitation factors. The co-occurrence return period is longer than that of the single factor and joint return period. (4) The single factor fitting only reflects single factor information of extreme precipitation but is unrelated to the relationship between factors. Three-dimensional copulas represent the internal information of extreme precipitation factors and are closer to the actual. The copula function is potentially widely applicable for the multiple factors of extreme precipitation.

Vascular access infection: survival or mortality.

PubMed

Hirotani, Sachiko; Kai, Kotaro; Iwatoh, Kazuhiro; Sannomiya, Akihito; Nakajima, Ichiro; Fuchinoue, Shohei

2015-11-01

We conducted an analysis on 11 cases of death after AVG infection that occurred between 1996 and 2013, and compared their information with those of 23 cases of generalized infection due to arteriovenous graft (AVG) infection during the same period who survived. The cause of death was sepsis in all 11 patients. The initial C-reactive protein (CRP) was 10.2-39.8 (28 in average) and the duration from onset of fever to vascular access (VA) hemostasis/removal procedure was 6-9 days (6.4 days in average) in the 11 cases of death. Blood culture revealed a high frequency of methicillin-resistant staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) in 7 of the 11 cases of death. In contrast, in 23 survivors with VA infection and generalized infection, the CRP at the initial visit was 3.2-15.8 (5.6 in average) and the duration from onset of the fever to VA hemostasis/removal procedure was 0-5 days (2.6 days in average), and blood culture revealed a high frequency of methicillin-sensitive staphylococcus aureus (MSSA). Among the cases of death, although VA infection in the upper extremity itself resolved after removing the artificial vessel, they died without an improvement of sepsis. The reason why the sepsis did not resolve is that infectious foci were secondarily formed in other areas than the upper extremity because the start of treatment for VA infection was delayed. Treatment for VA infection should be started as early as possible after onset to avoid the formation of secondary infectious foci in other areas.

Grain Yield and Water Use Efficiency in Extremely-Late Sown Winter Wheat Cultivars under Two Irrigation Regimes in the North China Plain

PubMed Central

Wang, Bin; Zhang, Yinghua; Hao, Baozhen; Xu, Xuexin; Zhao, Zhigan; Wang, Zhimin; Xue, Qingwu

2016-01-01

Wheat production is threatened by water shortages and groundwater over-draft in the North China Plain (NCP). In recent years, winter wheat has been increasingly sown extremely late in early to mid-November after harvesting cotton or pepper. To improve water use efficiency (WUE) and guide the extremely late sowing practices, a 3-year field experiment was conducted under two irrigation regimes (W1, one-irrigation, 75 mm at jointing; W2, two-irrigation, 75 mm at jointing and 75 mm at anthesis) in 3 cultivars differing in spike size (HS4399, small spike; JM22, medium spike; WM8, large spike). Wheat was sown in early to mid-November at a high seeding rate of 800–850 seeds m−2. Average yields of 7.42 t ha−1 and WUE of 1.84 kg m−3 were achieved with an average seasonal evapotranspiration (ET) of 404 mm. Compared with W2, wheat under W1 did not have yield penalty in 2 of 3 years, and had 7.9% lower seasonal ET and 7.5% higher WUE. The higher WUE and stable yield under W1 was associated with higher 1000-grain weight (TGW) and harvest index (HI). Among the 3 cultivars, JM22 had 5.9%–8.9% higher yield and 4.2%–9.3% higher WUE than WM8 and HS4399. The higher yield in JM22 was attributed mainly to higher HI and TGW due to increased post-anthesis biomass and deeper seasonal soil water extraction. In conclusion, one-irrigation with a medium-sized spike cultivar JM22 could be a useful strategy to maintain yield and high WUE in extremely late-sown winter wheat at a high seeding rate in the NCP. PMID:27100187

Variations/Changes in Daily Precipitation Extremes Derived from Satellite-Based Products

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gu, G.; Adler, R. F.

2017-12-01

Interannual/decadal-scale variations/changes in daily precipitation extremes are investigated by means of satellite-based high-spatiotemporal resolution precipitation products, including TRMM-TMPA, PERSIANN-CDR-Daily, GPCP 1DD, etc. Extreme precipitation indices at grids are first defined, including the maximum daily precipitation amount (Rx1day), the simple precipitation intensity index (SDII), the conditional (Rcond) daily precipitation rate (Pr>0 mm day-1), and monthly frequencies of rainy (FOCc) and wet (FOCw) days. Other two precipitation intensity indices, i.e., mean daily precipitation rates for Pr ≥10 mm day-1 (Pr10II) and for Pr ≥ 20 mm day-1 (Pr20II), are also constructed. Consistency analyses of daily extreme indices among these data sets are then performed by comparing corresponding averages over large domains such as tropical (30oN-30oS) land, ocean, land+ocean, for their common period (post-1997). This can provide a preliminary uncertainty analysis of these data sets in describing daily extreme precipitation events. Discrepancies can readily be found among these products regarding the magnitudes of area-averaged extreme indices. However, generally consistent temporal variations can be found among the indices derived from different satellite products. Interannual variability in daily precipitation extremes are then examined and compared at grids by exploring their relations with the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Linear correlation and composite analyses are used to examine the impact of ENSO on these extreme indices at grids and over large domains during the post-1997 period. Decadal-scale variability/change in daily extreme events is further examined by using the PERSIANN-CDR-Daily that can cover the entire post-1983 period, based on its general consistency with other two products during the post-1979 period. We specifically focus on exploring and discriminating the effects of decadal-scale internal variability such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and anthropogenic forcings including the greenhouse-gases (GHG) related warming. Comparisons are also made over global land with the results from two gridded daily rain-gauge products, GPCC Full-record daily (1988-2013) and NOAA/CPC Unified daily (1979-present).

Australia's Unprecedented Future Temperature Extremes Under Paris Limits to Warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lewis, Sophie C.; King, Andrew D.; Mitchell, Daniel M.

2017-10-01

Record-breaking temperatures can detrimentally impact ecosystems, infrastructure, and human health. Previous studies show that climate change has influenced some observed extremes, which are expected to become more frequent under enhanced future warming. Understanding the magnitude, as a well as frequency, of such future extremes is critical for limiting detrimental impacts. We focus on temperature changes in Australian regions, including over a major coral reef-building area, and assess the potential magnitude of future extreme temperatures under Paris Agreement global warming targets (1.5°C and 2°C). Under these limits to global mean warming, we determine a set of projected high-magnitude unprecedented Australian temperature extremes. These include extremes unexpected based on observational temperatures, including current record-breaking events. For example, while the difference in global-average warming during the hottest Australian summer and the 2°C Paris target is 1.1°C, extremes of 2.4°C above the observed summer record are simulated. This example represents a more than doubling of the magnitude of extremes, compared with global mean change, and such temperatures are unexpected based on the observed record alone. Projected extremes do not necessarily scale linearly with mean global warming, and this effect demonstrates the significant potential benefits of limiting warming to 1.5°C, compared to 2°C or warmer.

Identification of an Extremely 180-Rich Presolar Silicate Grain in Acfer 094

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nguyen, A. N.; Messenger, S.

2009-01-01

Presolar silicate grains have been abundantly identified since their first discovery less than a decade ago [1,2,3]. The O isotopic compositions of both silicate and oxide stardust indicate the vast majority (>90%) condensed around Orich asymptotic giant branch (AGB) stars. Though both presolar phases have average sizes of 300 nm, grains larger than 1 m are extremely uncommon for presolar silicates. Thus, while numerous isotopic systems have been measured in presolar oxide grains [4], very few isotopic analyses for presolar silicates exist outside of O and Si [2,5]. And still, these measurements suffer from isotopic dilution with surrounding matrix material [6]. We conduct a search for presolar silicates in the primitive carbonaceous chondrite Acfer 094 and in some cases obtain high spatial resolution, high precision isotopic ratios.

Reliability and validity of the closed kinetic chain upper extremity stability test.

PubMed

Lee, Dong-Rour; Kim, Laurentius Jongsoon

2015-04-01

[Purpose] The purpose of this study was to examine the reliability and validity of the Closed Kinetic Chain Upper Extremity Stability (CKCUES) test. [Subjects and Methods] A sample of 40 subjects (20 males, 20 females) with and without pain in the upper limbs was recruited. The subjects were tested twice, three days apart to assess the reliability of the CKCUES test. The CKCUES test was performed four times, and the average was calculated using the data of the last 3 tests. In order to test the validity of the CKCUES test, peak torque of internal/external shoulder rotation was measured using an isokinetic dynamometer, and maximum grip strength was measured using a hand dynamometer, and their Pearson correlation coefficients with the average values of the CKCUES test were calculated. [Results] The reliability of the CKCUES test was very high (ICC=0.97). The correlations between the CKCUES test and maximum grip strength (r=0.78-0.79), and the peak torque of internal/external shoulder rotation (r=0.87-0.94) were high indicating its validity. [Conclusion] The reliability and validity of the CKCUES test were high. The CKCUES test is expected to be used for clinical tests on upper limb stability at low price.

The extreme ultraviolet spectrograph: A radial groove grating, sounding rocket-borne, astronomical instrument

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilkinson, Erik; Green, James C.; Cash, Webster

1993-01-01

The design, calibration, and sounding rocket flight performance of a novel spectrograph suitable for moderate-resolution EUV spectroscopy are presented. The sounding rocket-borne instrument uses a radial groove grating to maintain a high system efficiency while controlling the aberrations induced when doing spectroscopy in a converging beam. The instrument has a resolution of approximately 2 A across the 200-330 A bandpass with an average effective area of 2 sq cm. The instrument, called the Extreme Ultraviolet Spectrograph, acquired the first EUV spectra in this wavelength region of the hot white dwarf G191-B2B and the late-type star Capella.

An extraordinary directive radiation based on optical antimatter at near infrared.

PubMed

Mocella, Vito; Dardano, Principia; Rendina, Ivo; Cabrini, Stefano

2010-11-22

In this paper we discuss and experimentally demonstrate that in a quasi- zero-average-refractive-index (QZAI) metamaterial, in correspondence of a divergent source in near infrared (λ = 1.55 μm) the light scattered out is extremely directive (Δθ(out) = 0.06°), coupling with diffraction order of the alternating complementary media grating. With a high degree of accuracy the measurements prove also the excellent vertical confinement of the beam even in the air region of the metamaterial, in absence of any simple vertical confinement mechanism. This extremely sensitive device works on a large contact area and open news perspective to integrated spectroscopy.

Development of a liquid tin microjet target for an efficient laser-produced plasma extreme ultraviolet source.

PubMed

Higashiguchi, Takeshi; Hamada, Masaya; Kubodera, Shoichi

2007-03-01

A regenerative tin liquid microjet target was developed for a high average power extreme ultraviolet (EUV) source. The diameter of the target was smaller than 160 microm and good vacuum lower than 0.5 Pa was maintained during the operation. A maximum EUV conversion efficiency of 1.8% at the Nd:yttrium-aluminum-garnet laser intensity of around 2 x 10(11) Wcm(2) with a spot diameter of 175 microm (full width at half maximum) was observed. The angular distribution of the EUV emission remained almost isotropic, whereas suprathermal ions mainly emerged toward the target normal.

Development of a liquid tin microjet target for an efficient laser-produced plasma extreme ultraviolet source

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Higashiguchi, Takeshi; Hamada, Masaya; Kubodera, Shoichi

2007-03-01

A regenerative tin liquid microjet target was developed for a high average power extreme ultraviolet (EUV) source. The diameter of the target was smaller than 160 μm and good vacuum lower than 0.5 Pa was maintained during the operation. A maximum EUV conversion efficiency of 1.8% at the Nd:yttrium-aluminum-garnet laser intensity of around 2×1011 W/cm2 with a spot diameter of 175 μm (full width at half maximum) was observed. The angular distribution of the EUV emission remained almost isotropic, whereas suprathermal ions mainly emerged toward the target normal.

Warmest extreme year in U.S. history alters thermal requirements for tree phenology.

PubMed

Carter, Jacob M; Orive, Maria E; Gerhart, Laci M; Stern, Jennifer H; Marchin, Renée M; Nagel, Joane; Ward, Joy K

2017-04-01

The frequency of extreme warm years is increasing across the majority of the planet. Shifts in plant phenology in response to extreme years can influence plant survival, productivity, and synchrony with pollinators/herbivores. Despite extensive work on plant phenological responses to climate change, little is known about responses to extreme warm years, particularly at the intraspecific level. Here we investigate 43 populations of white ash trees (Fraxinus americana) from throughout the species range that were all grown in a common garden. We compared the timing of leaf emergence during the warmest year in U.S. history (2012) with relatively non-extreme years. We show that (a) leaf emergence among white ash populations was accelerated by 21 days on average during the extreme warm year of 2012 relative to non-extreme years; (b) rank order for the timing of leaf emergence was maintained among populations across extreme and non-extreme years, with southern populations emerging earlier than northern populations; (c) greater amounts of warming units accumulated prior to leaf emergence during the extreme warm year relative to non-extreme years, and this constrained the potential for even earlier leaf emergence by an average of 9 days among populations; and (d) the extreme warm year reduced the reliability of a relevant phenological model for white ash by producing a consistent bias toward earlier predicted leaf emergence relative to observations. These results demonstrate a critical need to better understand how extreme warm years will impact tree phenology, particularly at the intraspecific level.

Formant characteristics of human laughter.

PubMed

Szameitat, Diana P; Darwin, Chris J; Szameitat, André J; Wildgruber, Dirk; Alter, Kai

2011-01-01

Although laughter is an important aspect of nonverbal vocalization, its acoustic properties are still not fully understood. Extreme articulation during laughter production, such as wide jaw opening, suggests that laughter can have very high first formant (F(1)) frequencies. We measured fundamental frequency and formant frequencies of the vowels produced in the vocalic segments of laughter. Vocalic segments showed higher average F(1) frequencies than those previously reported and individual values could be as high as 1100 Hz for male speakers and 1500 Hz for female speakers. To our knowledge, these are the highest F(1) frequencies reported to date for human vocalizations, exceeding even the F(1) frequencies reported for trained soprano singers. These exceptionally high F(1) values are likely to be based on the extreme positions adopted by the vocal tract during laughter in combination with physiological constraints accompanying the production of a "pressed" voice. Copyright © 2011 The Voice Foundation. All rights reserved.

Feasibility of High-Repetition, Task-Specific Training for Individuals With Upper-Extremity Paresis

PubMed Central

Waddell, Kimberly J.; Birkenmeier, Rebecca L.; Moore, Jennifer L.; Hornby, T. George

2014-01-01

OBJECTIVE. We investigated the feasibility of delivering an individualized, progressive, high-repetition upper-extremity (UE) task-specific training protocol for people with stroke in the inpatient rehabilitation setting. METHOD. Fifteen patients with UE paresis participated in this study. Task-specific UE training was scheduled for 60 min/day, 4 days/wk, during occupational therapy for the duration of a participant’s inpatient stay. During each session, participants were challenged to complete ≥300 repetitions of various tasks. RESULTS. Participants averaged 289 repetitions/session, spending 47 of 60 min in active training. Participants improved on impairment and activity level outcome measures. CONCLUSION. People with stroke in an inpatient setting can achieve hundreds of repetitions of task-specific training in 1-hr sessions. As expected, all participants improved on functional outcome measures. Future studies are needed to determine whether this high-repetition training program results in better outcomes than current UE interventions. PMID:25005508

The Influence of Altering Push Force Effectiveness on Upper Extremity Demand during Wheelchair Propulsion

PubMed Central

Rankin, Jeffery W.; Kwarciak, Andrew M.; Richter, W. Mark; Neptune, Richard R.

2010-01-01

Manual wheelchair propulsion has been linked to a high incidence of overuse injury and pain in the upper extremity, which may be caused by the high load requirements and low mechanical efficiency of the task. Previous studies have suggested that poor mechanical efficiency may be due to a low effective handrim force (i.e. applied force that is not directed tangential to the handrim). As a result, studies attempting to reduce upper extremity demand have used various measures of force effectiveness (e.g. fraction effective force, FEF) as a guide for modifying propulsion technique, developing rehabilitation programs and configuring wheelchairs. However, the relationship between FEF and upper extremity demand is not well understood. The purpose of this study was to use forward dynamics simulations of wheelchair propulsion to determine the influence of FEF on upper extremity demand by quantifying individual muscle stress, work and handrim force contributions at different values of FEF. Simulations maximizing and minimizing FEF resulted in higher average muscle stresses (23% and 112%) and total muscle work (28% and 71%) compared to a nominal FEF simulation. The maximal FEF simulation also shifted muscle use from muscles crossing the elbow to those at the shoulder (e.g. rotator cuff muscles), placing greater demand on shoulder muscles during propulsion. The optimal FEF value appears to represent a balance between increasing push force effectiveness to increase mechanical efficiency and minimizing upper extremity demand. Thus, care should be taken in using force effectiveness as a metric to reduce upper extremity demand. PMID:20674921

Global predictability of temperature extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coughlan de Perez, Erin; van Aalst, Maarten; Bischiniotis, Konstantinos; Mason, Simon; Nissan, Hannah; Pappenberger, Florian; Stephens, Elisabeth; Zsoter, Ervin; van den Hurk, Bart

2018-05-01

Extreme temperatures are one of the leading causes of death and disease in both developed and developing countries, and heat extremes are projected to rise in many regions. To reduce risk, heatwave plans and cold weather plans have been effectively implemented around the world. However, much of the world’s population is not yet protected by such systems, including many data-scarce but also highly vulnerable regions. In this study, we assess at a global level where such systems have the potential to be effective at reducing risk from temperature extremes, characterizing (1) long-term average occurrence of heatwaves and coldwaves, (2) seasonality of these extremes, and (3) short-term predictability of these extreme events three to ten days in advance. Using both the NOAA and ECMWF weather forecast models, we develop global maps indicating a first approximation of the locations that are likely to benefit from the development of seasonal preparedness plans and/or short-term early warning systems for extreme temperature. The extratropics generally show both short-term skill as well as strong seasonality; in the tropics, most locations do also demonstrate one or both. In fact, almost 5 billion people live in regions that have seasonality and predictability of heatwaves and/or coldwaves. Climate adaptation investments in these regions can take advantage of seasonality and predictability to reduce risks to vulnerable populations.

Lower-extremity ground reaction forces in collegiate baseball pitchers.

PubMed

Guido, John A; Werner, Sherry L

2012-07-01

The purpose of this study was to investigate ground reaction forces (GRF) in collegiate baseball pitchers and their relationship to pitching mechanics. Fourteen healthy collegiate baseball pitchers participated in this study. High-speed video and force plate data were collected for fastballs from each pitcher. The average ball speed was 35 ± 3 m/sec (78 ± 7 mph). Peak GRFs of 245 ± 20% body weight (BW) were generated in an anterior or braking direction to control descent. Horizontal GRFs tended to occur in a laterally directed fashion, reaching a peak of 45 ± 63% BW. The maximum vertical GRF averaged 202 ± 43% BW approximately 45 milliseconds after stride foot contact. A correlation between braking force and ball velocity was evident. Because of the downward inclination and rotation of the pitching motion, in addition to volume, shear forces may occur in the musculoskeletal tissues of the stride limb leading to many of the lower-extremity injuries seen in this athletic population.

Parameterisation of rainfall-runoff models for forecasting low and average flows, I: Conceptual modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Castiglioni, S.; Toth, E.

2009-04-01

In the calibration procedure of continuously-simulating models, the hydrologist has to choose which part of the observed hydrograph is most important to fit, either implicitly, through the visual agreement in manual calibration, or explicitly, through the choice of the objective function(s). Changing the objective functions it is in fact possible to emphasise different kind of errors, giving them more weight in the calibration phase. The objective functions used for calibrating hydrological models are generally of the quadratic type (mean squared error, correlation coefficient, coefficient of determination, etc) and are therefore oversensitive to high and extreme error values, that typically correspond to high and extreme streamflow values. This is appropriate when, like in the majority of streamflow forecasting applications, the focus is on the ability to reproduce potentially dangerous flood events; on the contrary, if the aim of the modelling is the reproduction of low and average flows, as it is the case in water resource management problems, this may result in a deterioration of the forecasting performance. This contribution presents the results of a series of automatic calibration experiments of a continuously-simulating rainfall-runoff model applied over several real-world case-studies, where the objective function is chosen so to highlight the fit of average and low flows. In this work a simple conceptual model will be used, of the lumped type, with a relatively low number of parameters to be calibrated. The experiments will be carried out for a set of case-study watersheds in Central Italy, covering an extremely wide range of geo-morphologic conditions and for whom at least five years of contemporary daily series of streamflow, precipitation and evapotranspiration estimates are available. Different objective functions will be tested in calibration and the results will be compared, over validation data, against those obtained with traditional squared functions. A companion work presents the results, over the same case-study watersheds and observation periods, of a system-theoretic model, again calibrated for reproducing average and low streamflows.

The pitch of short-duration fundamental frequency glissandos.

PubMed

d'Alessandro, C; Rosset, S; Rossi, J P

1998-10-01

Pitch perception for short-duration fundamental frequency (F0) glissandos was studied. In the first part, new measurements using the method of adjustment are reported. Stimuli were F0 glissandos centered at 220 Hz. The parameters under study were: F0 glissando extents (0, 0.8, 1.5, 3, 6, and 12 semitones, i.e., 0, 10.17, 18.74, 38.17, 76.63, and 155.56 Hz), F0 glissando durations (50, 100, 200, and 300 ms), F0 glissando directions (rising or falling), and the extremity of F0 glissandos matched (beginning or end). In the second part, the main results are discussed: (1) perception seems to correspond to an average of the frequencies present in the vicinity of the extremity matched; (2) the higher extremities of the glissando seem more important; (3) adjustments at the end are closer to the extremities than adjustments at the beginning. In the third part, numerical models accounting for the experimental data are proposed: a time-average model and a weighted time-average model. Optimal parameters for these models are derived. The weighted time-average model achieves a 94% accurate prediction rate for the experimental data. The numerical model is successful in predicting the pitch of short-duration F0 glissandos.

Nitrogen Accumulation and Partitioning in High Arctic Tundra from Extreme Atmospheric N Deposition Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Phoenix, G. K.; Osborn, A.; Blaud, A.; Press, M. C.; Choudhary, S.

2013-12-01

Arctic ecosystems are threatened by pollution from extreme atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition events. These events occur from the long-range transport of reactive N from pollution sources at lower latitudes and can deposit up to 80% of the annual N deposition in just a few days. To date, the fate and impacts of these extreme pollutant events has remained unknown. Using a field simulation study, we undertook the first assessment of the fate of acutely deposited N on arctic tundra. Extreme N deposition events were simulated on field plots at Ny-Ålesund, Svalbard (79oN) at rates of 0, 0.04, 0.4 and 1.2 g N m-2 yr-1 applied as NH4NO3 solution over 4 days, with 15N tracers used in the second year to quantify the fate of the deposited N in the plant, soil, microbial and leachate pools. Separate applications of 15NO3- and 15NH4+ were also made to determine the importance of N form in the fate of N. Recovery of the 15N tracer at the end of the first growing season approached 100% of the 15N applied irrespective of treatment level, demonstrating the considerable capacity of High Arctic tundra to capture pollutant N from extreme deposition events. Most incorporation of the 15N was found in bryophytes, followed by the dominant vascular plant (Salix polaris) and the microbial biomass of the soil organic layer. Total recovery remained high in the second growing season (average of 90%), indicating highly conservative N retention. Between the two N forms, recovery of 15NO3- and 15NH4+ were equal in the non-vascular plants, whereas in the vascular plants (particularly Salix polaris) recovery of 15NO3- was four times higher than of 15NH4+. Overall, these findings show that High Arctic tundra has considerable capacity to capture and retain the pollutant N deposited in acute extreme deposition events. Given they can represent much of the annual N deposition, extreme deposition events may be more important than increased chronic N deposition as a pollution source. Furthermore, current extreme N deposition events -and the predicted future increase in extreme deposition events- may represent an important source of eutrophication to 'pristine' arctic tundra.

An Analytical Approach for Performance Enhancement of FSO Communication System Using Array of Receivers in Adverse Weather Conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nagpal, Shaina; Gupta, Amit

2017-08-01

Free Space Optics (FSO) link exploits the tremendous network capacity and is capable of offering wireless communications similar to communications through optical fibres. However, FSO link is extremely weather dependent and the major effect on FSO links is due to adverse weather conditions like fog and snow. In this paper, an FSO link is designed using an array of receivers. The disparity of the link for very high attenuation conditions due to fog and snow is analysed using aperture averaging technique. Further effect of aperture averaging technique is investigated by comparing the systems using aperture averaging technique with systems not using aperture averaging technique. The performance of proposed model of FSO link has been evaluated in terms of Q factor, bit error rate (BER) and eye diagram.

Coal resources of the Fruitland Formation in part of the Ute Mountain Ute Indian Reservation, San Juan County, New Mexico

USGS Publications Warehouse

Roberts, Laura N. Robinson

1991-01-01

The coal-bearing Upper Cretaceous Fruitland Formation occupies an area of about 14 square miles in the extreme southeast corner of the Ute Mountain Ute Indian Reservation in San Juan County, New Mexico. In this area, the Fruitland Formation contains an estimated 252 million short tons of coal in beds that range from 1.2 to 14 feet thick. About 100 million short tons of coal occur under less than 500 feet of overburden in the Ute Canyon, Upper Main, and Main coal beds. These three coal beds reach a cumulative coal thickness of about 18 feet in a stratigraphic interval that averages about 120 feet thick in the prospecting permit area, which is located in the extreme southwestern part of the study area. The southwestern part of the study area is probably best suited for surface mining, although steep dips may reduce minability locally. A major haul road that was recently constructed across the eastern half of the study area greatly improves the potential for surface mining. Core sample analyses indicate that the apparent rank of the Ute Canyon, Upper Main, and Main coal beds is high-volatile C bituminous. Average heat-of-combustion on an as-received basis is 10,250 British thermal units per pound, average ash content is 15.5 percent, and average sulfur content is 1.0 percent.

The Impacts of Atmospheric Rivers on California's Extreme Precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Asgari Lamjiri, M.; Dettinger, M. D.; Ralph, M.

2017-12-01

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are long, narrow corridors of enhanced water vapor transport that are typically associated with extratropical cyclones. ARs can be beneficial and replenish water resources, be hazardous and cause damaging floods, or have a combination of hazardous and beneficial impacts. Thus, understanding hydrologic impacts of ARs can help to improve water reservoir management and enhance flood risk mitigation, especially in California where there is extremely large year-to-year variability in annual precipitation accumulations. At the continental scale, gridded hourly precipitation observations are used in this study to identify unique characteristics of precipitation events impacting the US west coast compared to other regions in the US; precipitation events are defined here as continuous periods of precipitation with at least 5 mm of accumulated precipitation. It is shown that on average, the US west coast receives the largest precipitation totals across the US; these extreme precipitation events are largely associated with the most persistent ARs. Within California, hourly precipitation observations from 200 sites are being analyzed to better understand distinct categories of ARs that dictate extreme precipitation in different regions of California. It is found that, on average, the north coast, northern Sierra, and the Transverse Ranges experience the largest precipitation events; north coast and northern Sierra precipitation events tend to be longer, whereas the Transverse Ranges generally experience higher maximum and event-averaged intensities. ARs contribute significantly to extreme precipitation events in all regions of California, particularly the north coast, northern Sierra, and the Transverse Ranges. ARs associated with extreme precipitation events across California are significantly more persistent and have higher integrated vapor transport intensities than those associated with non-extreme events. Composites of characteristics of ARs which yield extreme precipitation events in different regions of California are studied to categorize the most impactful ARs in each region.

Estimates of peak flood discharge for 21 sites in the Front Range in Colorado in response to extreme rainfall in September 2013

USGS Publications Warehouse

Moody, John A.

2016-03-21

Extreme rainfall in September 2013 caused destructive floods in part of the Front Range in Boulder County, Colorado. Erosion from these floods cut roads and isolated mountain communities for several weeks, and large volumes of eroded sediment were deposited downstream, which caused further damage of property and infrastructures. Estimates of peak discharge for these floods and the associated rainfall characteristics will aid land and emergency managers in the future. Several methods (an ensemble) were used to estimate peak discharge at 21 measurement sites, and the ensemble average and standard deviation provided a final estimate of peak discharge and its uncertainty. Because of the substantial erosion and deposition of sediment, an additional estimate of peak discharge was made based on the flow resistance caused by sediment transport effects.Although the synoptic-scale rainfall was extreme (annual exceedance probability greater than 1,000 years, about 450 millimeters in 7 days) for these mountains, the resulting peak discharges were not. Ensemble average peak discharges per unit drainage area (unit peak discharge, [Qu]) for the floods were 1–2 orders of magnitude less than those for the maximum worldwide floods with similar drainage areas and had a wide range of values (0.21–16.2 cubic meters per second per square kilometer [m3 s-1 km-2]). One possible explanation for these differences was that the band of high-accumulation, high-intensity rainfall was narrow (about 50 kilometers wide), oriented nearly perpendicular to the predominant drainage pattern of the mountains, and therefore entire drainage areas were not subjected to the same range of extreme rainfall. A linear relation (coefficient of determination [R2]=0.69) between Qu and the rainfall intensity (ITc, computed for a time interval equal to the time-of-concentration for the drainage area upstream from each site), had the form: Qu=0.26(ITc-8.6), where the coefficient 0.26 can be considered to be an area-averaged peak runoff coefficient for the September 2013 rain storms in Boulder County, and the 8.6 millimeters per hour to be the rainfall intensity corresponding to a soil moisture threshold that controls the soil infiltration rate. Peak discharge estimates based on the sediment transport effects were generally less than the ensemble average and indicated that sediment transport may be a mechanism that limits velocities in these types of mountain streams such that the Froude number fluctuates about 1 suggesting that this type of floodflow can be approximated as critical flow.

Quantifying spatiotemporal variability of fine particles in an urban environment using combined fixed and mobile measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sullivan, R. C.; Pryor, S. C.

2014-06-01

Spatiotemporal variability of fine particle concentrations in Indianapolis, Indiana is quantified using a combination of high temporal resolution measurements at four fixed sites and mobile measurements with instruments attached to bicycles during transects of the city. Average urban PM2.5 concentrations are an average of ˜3.9-5.1 μg m-3 above the regional background. The influence of atmospheric conditions on ambient PM2.5 concentrations is evident with the greatest temporal variability occurring at periods of one day and 5-10 days corresponding to diurnal and synoptic meteorological processes, and lower mean wind speeds are associated with episodes of high PM2.5 concentrations. An anthropogenic signal is also evident. Higher PM2.5 concentrations coincide with morning rush hour, the frequencies of PM2.5 variability co-occur with those for carbon monoxide, and higher extreme concentrations were observed mid-week compared to weekends. On shorter time scales (

Haptic biofeedback for improving compliance with lower-extremity partial weight bearing.

PubMed

Fu, Michael C; DeLuke, Levi; Buerba, Rafael A; Fan, Richard E; Zheng, Ying Jean; Leslie, Michael P; Baumgaertner, Michael R; Grauer, Jonathan N

2014-11-01

After lower-extremity orthopedic trauma and surgery, patients are often advised to restrict weight bearing on the affected limb. Conventional training methods are not effective at enabling patients to comply with recommendations for partial weight bearing. The current study assessed a novel method of using real-time haptic (vibratory/vibrotactile) biofeedback to improve compliance with instructions for partial weight bearing. Thirty healthy, asymptomatic participants were randomized into 1 of 3 groups: verbal instruction, bathroom scale training, and haptic biofeedback. Participants were instructed to restrict lower-extremity weight bearing in a walking boot with crutches to 25 lb, with an acceptable range of 15 to 35 lb. A custom weight bearing sensor and biofeedback system was attached to all participants, but only those in the haptic biofeedback group were given a vibrotactile signal if they exceeded the acceptable range. Weight bearing in all groups was measured with a separate validated commercial system. The verbal instruction group bore an average of 60.3±30.5 lb (mean±standard deviation). The bathroom scale group averaged 43.8±17.2 lb, whereas the haptic biofeedback group averaged 22.4±9.1 lb (P<.05). As a percentage of body weight, the verbal instruction group averaged 40.2±19.3%, the bathroom scale group averaged 32.5±16.9%, and the haptic biofeedback group averaged 14.5±6.3% (P<.05). In this initial evaluation of the use of haptic biofeedback to improve compliance with lower-extremity partial weight bearing, haptic biofeedback was superior to conventional physical therapy methods. Further studies in patients with clinical orthopedic trauma are warranted. Copyright 2014, SLACK Incorporated.

Optimal bounds and extremal trajectories for time averages in nonlinear dynamical systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tobasco, Ian; Goluskin, David; Doering, Charles R.

2018-02-01

For any quantity of interest in a system governed by ordinary differential equations, it is natural to seek the largest (or smallest) long-time average among solution trajectories, as well as the extremal trajectories themselves. Upper bounds on time averages can be proved a priori using auxiliary functions, the optimal choice of which is a convex optimization problem. We prove that the problems of finding maximal trajectories and minimal auxiliary functions are strongly dual. Thus, auxiliary functions provide arbitrarily sharp upper bounds on time averages. Moreover, any nearly minimal auxiliary function provides phase space volumes in which all nearly maximal trajectories are guaranteed to lie. For polynomial equations, auxiliary functions can be constructed by semidefinite programming, which we illustrate using the Lorenz system.

The Effect of Pictures and Humor on Memory for Verbal Material in Two Extreme Scholastic Aptitude Populations.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sagaria, Sabato D.; Derks, Peter L.

In an effort to understand why pictures are used to supplement learning material, a study explored (1) the role of humor in recall, and (2) whether the effects of humor are independent of the individual's ability level. Subjects--students from either the high SAT (approximate average of 1200 points) population (HS), or the low SAT (approximate…

Temperature and moisture conditions for life in the extreme arid region of the Atacama desert: four years of observations including the El Nino of 1997-1998

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

McKay, Christopher P.; Friedmann, E. Imre; Gomez-Silva, Benito; Caceres-Villanueva, Luis; Andersen, Dale T.; Landheim, Ragnhild

2003-01-01

The Atacama along the Pacific Coast of Chile and Peru is one of the driest and possibly oldest deserts in the world. It represents an extreme habitat for life on Earth and is an analog for life in dry conditions on Mars. We report on four years (September 1994-October 1998) of climate and moisture data from the extreme arid region of the Atacama. Our data are focused on understanding moisture sources and their role in creating suitable environments for photosynthetic microorganisms in the desert surface. The average air temperature was 16.5 degrees C and 16.6 degrees C in 1995 and 1996, respectively. The maximum air temperature recorded was 37.9 degrees C, and the minimum was -5.7 degrees C. Annual average sunlight was 336 and 335 W m(-2) in 1995 and 1996, respectively. Winds averaged a few meters per second, with strong fohn winds coming from the west exceeding 12 m s(-1). During our 4 years of observation there was only one significant rain event of 2.3 mm, which occurred near midnight local time. We suggest that this event was a rainout of a heavy fog. It is of interest that the strong El Nino of 1997-1998 brought heavy rainfall to the deserts of Peru, but did not bring significant rain to the central Atacama in Chile. Dew occurred at our station frequently following high nighttime relative humidity, but is not a significant source of moisture in the soil or under stones. Groundwater also does not contribute to surface moisture. Only the one rain event of 2.3 mm resulted in liquid water in the soil and beneath stones for a total of only 65-85 h over 4 years. The paucity of liquid water under stones is consistent with the apparent absence of hypolithic (under-stone) cyanobacteria, the only known primary producers in such extreme deserts.

The impact of ambient particle pollution during extreme-temperature days in Guangzhou City, China.

PubMed

Li, Guoxing; Jiang, Lai; Zhang, Yajuan; Cai, Yue; Pan, Xiaochuan; Zhou, Maigeng

2014-11-01

The aim of this study is to explore whether the effect of PM10 (particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter of <10 µm) on daily mortality was modified by extreme temperatures in Guangzhou from 2005 to 2009. The present study used time-series analysis to explore the modification effects of temperature on the association between PM10 and the cause-specific mortalities for cardiovascular, respiratory, cardiopulmonary, and nonaccidental mortality. The interactions between PM10 and temperature were statistically significant on respiratory mortality. The effect estimates per 10-µg/m(3) increase in PM10 concentrations at the moving average of lags of 0 and 1 day on high-temperature days were 2.34% (95% confidence interval = 0.55, 4.16) for nonaccidental, 1.35% (-1.69, 4.48) for cardiovascular, 6.09% (2.42, 9.89) for respiratory, and 3.36% (0.92, 5.86) for cardiopulmonary mortalities. The results suggest that it is important to control and reduce the emission of air particles in Guangzhou, particularly on extreme-high-temperature days. © 2014 APJPH.

Claims incidence of work-related disorders of the upper extremities: Washington state, 1987 through 1995.

PubMed

Silverstein, B; Welp, E; Nelson, N; Kalat, J

1998-12-01

This study examined the claim incidence rate, cost, and industry distribution of work-related upper extremity disorders in Washington. Washington State Fund workers' compensation claims from 1987 to 1995 were abstracted and categorized into general and specific disorders of gradual or sudden onset. Accepted claims included 100,449 for hand/wrist disorders (incidence rate: 98.2/10,000 full-time equivalents; carpal tunnel syndrome rate: 27.3), 30,468 for elbow disorders (incidence rate: 29.7; epicondylitis rate: 11.7), and 55,315 for shoulder disorders (incidence rate: 54.0; rotator cuff syndrome rate: 19.9). Average direct workers' compensation claims costs (medical treatment and indemnity) were $15,790 (median: $6774) for rotator cuff syndrome, $12,794 for carpal tunnel syndrome (median: $4190), and $6593 for epicondylitis (median: $534). Construction and food processing were among the industries with the highest rate ratios for all disorders (> 4.0). Upper extremity disorders represent a large and costly problem in Washington State industry. Industries characterized by manual handling and repetitive work have high rate ratios. The contingent workforce appears to be at high risk.

Plant tolerance to high temperature in a changing environment: scientific fundamentals and production of heat stress-tolerant crops

PubMed Central

Bita, Craita E.; Gerats, Tom

2013-01-01

Global warming is predicted to have a general negative effect on plant growth due to the damaging effect of high temperatures on plant development. The increasing threat of climatological extremes including very high temperatures might lead to catastrophic loss of crop productivity and result in wide spread famine. In this review, we assess the impact of global climate change on the agricultural crop production. There is a differential effect of climate change both in terms of geographic location and the crops that will likely show the most extreme reductions in yield as a result of expected extreme fluctuations in temperature and global warming in general. High temperature stress has a wide range of effects on plants in terms of physiology, biochemistry and gene regulation pathways. However, strategies exist to crop improvement for heat stress tolerance. In this review, we present recent advances of research on all these levels of investigation and focus on potential leads that may help to understand more fully the mechanisms that make plants tolerant or susceptible to heat stress. Finally, we review possible procedures and methods which could lead to the generation of new varieties with sustainable yield production, in a world likely to be challenged both by increasing population, higher average temperatures and larger temperature fluctuations. PMID:23914193

Plant tolerance to high temperature in a changing environment: scientific fundamentals and production of heat stress-tolerant crops.

PubMed

Bita, Craita E; Gerats, Tom

2013-01-01

Global warming is predicted to have a general negative effect on plant growth due to the damaging effect of high temperatures on plant development. The increasing threat of climatological extremes including very high temperatures might lead to catastrophic loss of crop productivity and result in wide spread famine. In this review, we assess the impact of global climate change on the agricultural crop production. There is a differential effect of climate change both in terms of geographic location and the crops that will likely show the most extreme reductions in yield as a result of expected extreme fluctuations in temperature and global warming in general. High temperature stress has a wide range of effects on plants in terms of physiology, biochemistry and gene regulation pathways. However, strategies exist to crop improvement for heat stress tolerance. In this review, we present recent advances of research on all these levels of investigation and focus on potential leads that may help to understand more fully the mechanisms that make plants tolerant or susceptible to heat stress. Finally, we review possible procedures and methods which could lead to the generation of new varieties with sustainable yield production, in a world likely to be challenged both by increasing population, higher average temperatures and larger temperature fluctuations.

Dispersal and deposition of river sediments in coastal seas: Models from Asia and the tropics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wright, L. D.

The diverse mechanisms by which river-borne sediments are dispersed into coastal oceans and the associated patterns of deposition are considered for some tropical and Asian river mouth dispersal systems: the Huanghe (Yellow River), which enters the Bohai Gulf (China), the Purari River which enters the Gulf of Papua (Papua New Guinea) and the Jaba River, which enters Empress Augusta Bay (Bougainville, Papua New Guinea). These models contrast sharply with 'conventional' models such as that of the Mississippi, although in different respects. Extremely high suspended sediment concentrations off the Huanghe mouth cause sinking, gravity-driven plumes which produce rapid deposition very near the mouth; extremely rapid seaward growth of the subaqueous delta results. Although the average water discharge of the Purari exceeds that of the Huanghe, the average sediment discharge from the Purari is an order of magnitude less than that of the Huanghe. Suspended sediments transported via buoyant plumes from the Purari mouth are trapped inshore by the southeasterly trades and have their ultimate sink in the tidal estuaries to the west of the mouths rather than offshore. The Jaba is a small river with a very steep gradient and an extremely high bed load relative to water discharge. It has constructed a protruding and rapidly evolving delta. Literature on the Indonesian rivers Solo and Porong dispersal systems suggests that those systems may, at different times, be subject to processes similar to those which operate off the mouths of the Huanghe, Purari and Jaba although no single, direct analogies can be made.

Simulating US Agriculture in a Modern Dust Bowl Drought

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Glotter, Michael; Elliott, Joshua

2016-01-01

Drought-induced agricultural loss is one of the most costly impacts of extreme weather, and without mitigation, climate change is likely to increase the severity and frequency of future droughts. The Dust Bowl of the 1930s was the driest and hottest for agriculture in modern US history. Improvements in farming practices have increased productivity, but yields today are still tightly linked to climate variation and the impacts of a 1930s-type drought on current and future agricultural systems remain unclear. Simulations of biophysical process and empirical models suggest that Dust-Bowl-type droughts today would have unprecedented consequences, with yield losses approx.50% larger than the severe drought of 2012. Damages at these extremes are highly sensitive to temperature, worsening by approx.25% with each degree centigrade of warming. We find that high temperatures can be more damaging than rainfall deficit, and, without adaptation, warmer mid-century temperatures with even average precipitation could lead to maize losses equivalent to the Dust Bowl drought. Warmer temperatures alongside consecutive droughts could make up to 85% of rain-fed maize at risk of changes that may persist for decades. Understanding the interactions of weather extremes and a changing agricultural system is therefore critical to effectively respond to, and minimize, the impacts of the next extreme drought event.

Simulating US agriculture in a modern Dust Bowl drought.

PubMed

Glotter, Michael; Elliott, Joshua

2016-12-12

Drought-induced agricultural loss is one of the most costly impacts of extreme weather 1-3 , and without mitigation, climate change is likely to increase the severity and frequency of future droughts 4,5 . The Dust Bowl of the 1930s was the driest and hottest for agriculture in modern US history. Improvements in farming practices have increased productivity, but yields today are still tightly linked to climate variation 6 and the impacts of a 1930s-type drought on current and future agricultural systems remain unclear. Simulations of biophysical process and empirical models suggest that Dust-Bowl-type droughts today would have unprecedented consequences, with yield losses ∼50% larger than the severe drought of 2012. Damages at these extremes are highly sensitive to temperature, worsening by ∼25% with each degree centigrade of warming. We find that high temperatures can be more damaging than rainfall deficit, and, without adaptation, warmer mid-century temperatures with even average precipitation could lead to maize losses equivalent to the Dust Bowl drought. Warmer temperatures alongside consecutive droughts could make up to 85% of rain-fed maize at risk of changes that may persist for decades. Understanding the interactions of weather extremes and a changing agricultural system is therefore critical to effectively respond to, and minimize, the impacts of the next extreme drought event.

Five centuries of Central European temperature extremes reconstructed from tree-ring density and documentary evidence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Battipaglia, G.; Frank, D.; Buentgen, U.; Dobrovolný, P.; Brázdil, R.; Pfister, C.; Esper, J.

2009-09-01

In this project three different summer temperature sensitive tree-ring chronologies across the European Alpine region were compiled and analyzed to make a calendar of extreme warm and cold summers. We identified 100 extreme events during the past millennium from the tree ring data, and 44 extreme years during the 1550-2003 period based upon tree-ring, documentary and instrumental evidence. Comparisons with long instrumental series and documentary evidence verify the tree-ring extremes and indicate the possibility to use this dataset towards a better understanding of the characteristics prior to the instrumental period. Potential links between the occurrence of extreme events over Alps and anomalous large-scale patterns were explored and indicate that the average pattern of the 20 warmest summers (over the 1700-2002 period) describes maximum positive anomalies over Central Europe, whereas the average pattern of the 20 coldest summers shows maximum negative anomalies over Western Europe. Challenges with the present approach included determining an appropriate classification scheme for extreme events and the development of a methodology able to identify and characterize the occurrence of extreme episodes back in time. As a future step, our approach will be extended to help verify the sparse documentary data from the beginning of the past millennium and will be used in conjunction with climate models to assess model capabilities in reproducing characteristics of temperature extremes.

The effect of consumer pressure and abiotic stress on positive plant interactions are mediated by extreme climatic events.

PubMed

Filazzola, Alessandro; Liczner, Amanda Rae; Westphal, Michael; Lortie, Christopher J

2018-01-01

Environmental extremes resulting from a changing climate can have profound implications for plant interactions in desert communities. Positive interactions can buffer plant communities from abiotic stress and consumer pressure caused by climatic extremes, but limited research has explored this empirically. We tested the hypothesis that the mechanism of shrub facilitation on an annual plant community can change with precipitation extremes in deserts. During years of extreme drought and above-average rainfall in a desert, we measured plant interactions and biomass while manipulating a soil moisture gradient and reducing consumer pressure. Shrubs facilitated the annual plant community at all levels of soil moisture through reductions in microclimatic stress in both years and herbivore protection in the wet year only. Shrub facilitation and the high rainfall year contributed to the dominance of a competitive annual species in the plant community. Precipitation patterns in deserts determine the magnitude and type of facilitation mechanisms. Moreover, shrub facilitation mediates the interspecific competition within the associated annual community between years with different rainfall amounts. Examining multiple drivers during extreme climate events is a challenging area of research, but it is a necessary consideration given forecasts predicting that these events will increase in frequency and magnitude. © 2017 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2017 New Phytologist Trust.

Atmospheric Moisture Budget and Spatial Resolution Dependence of Precipitation Extremes in Aquaplanet Simulations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yang, Qing; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Rauscher, Sara

This study investigates the resolution dependency of precipitation extremes in an aqua-planet framework. Strong resolution dependency of precipitation extremes is seen over both tropics and extra-tropics, and the magnitude of this dependency also varies with dynamical cores. Moisture budget analyses based on aqua-planet simulations with the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) using the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) and High Order Method Modeling Environment (HOMME) dynamical cores but the same physics parameterizations suggest that during precipitation extremes moisture supply for surface precipitation is mainly derived from advective moisture convergence. The resolution dependency of precipitation extremes mainly originates from advective moisturemore » transport in the vertical direction. At most vertical levels over the tropics and in the lower atmosphere over the subtropics, the vertical eddy transport of mean moisture field dominates the contribution to precipitation extremes and its resolution dependency. Over the subtropics, the source of moisture, its associated energy, and the resolution dependency during extremes are dominated by eddy transport of eddies moisture at the mid- and upper-troposphere. With both MPAS and HOMME dynamical cores, the resolution dependency of the vertical advective moisture convergence is mainly explained by dynamical changes (related to vertical velocity or omega), although the vertical gradients of moisture act like averaging kernels to determine the sensitivity of the overall resolution dependency to the changes in omega at different vertical levels. The natural reduction of variability with coarser resolution, represented by areal data averaging (aggregation) effect, largely explains the resolution dependency in omega. The thermodynamic changes, which likely result from non-linear feedback in response to the large dynamical changes, are small compared to the overall changes in dynamics (omega). However, after excluding the data aggregation effect in omega, thermodynamic changes become relatively significant in offsetting the effect of dynamics leading to reduce differences between the simulated and aggregated results. Compared to MPAS, the simulated stronger vertical motion with HOMME also results in larger resolution dependency. Compared to the simulation at fine resolution, the vertical motion during extremes is insufficiently resolved/parameterized at the coarser resolution even after accounting for the natural reduction in variability with coarser resolution, and this is more distinct in the simulation with HOMME. To reduce uncertainties in simulated precipitation extremes, future development in cloud parameterizations must address their sensitivity to spatial resolution as well as dynamical cores.« less

Spatial and temporal variation in daily temperature indices in summer and winter seasons over India (1969-2012)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, Naresh; Jaswal, A. K.; Mohapatra, M.; Kore, P. A.

2017-08-01

Spatial and temporal variations in summer and winter extreme temperature indices are studied by using daily maximum and minimum temperatures data from 227 surface meteorological stations well distributed over India for the period 1969-2012. For this purpose, time series for six extreme temperature indices namely, hot days (HD), very hot days (VHD), extremely hot days (EHD), cold nights (CN), very cold nights (VCN), and extremely cold nights (ECN) are calculated for all the stations. In addition, time series for mean extreme temperature indices of summer and winter seasons are also analyzed. Study reveals high variability in spatial distribution of threshold temperatures of extreme temperature indices over the country. In general, increasing trends are observed in summer hot days indices and decreasing trends in winter cold night indices over most parts of the country. The results obtained in this study indicate warming in summer maximum and winter minimum temperatures over India. Averaged over India, trends in summer hot days indices HD, VHD, and EHD are significantly increasing (+1.0, +0.64, and +0.32 days/decade, respectively) and winter cold night indices CN, VCN, and ECN are significantly decreasing (-0.93, -0.47, and -0.15 days/decade, respectively). Also, it is observed that the impact of extreme temperature is higher along the west coast for summer and east coast for winter.

Effects of the crustal magnetic fields on the Martian atmospheric ion escape rate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramstad, R.; Barbash, S.; Futaana, Y.; Nilsson, H.; Holmstrom, M.

2015-12-01

Eight years (2007-2015) of ion flux measurements from Mars Express are used to empirically investigate the influence of the Martian crustal magnetic fields on the atmospheric ion escape rate. We combine ASPERA-3/IMA (Analyzer of Space Plasmas and Energetic Atoms/Ion Mass Analyzer) measurements taken during nominal upstream solar wind and solar Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) conditions to compute global average ion distribution functions for varying solar zenith angles (SZA) of the strongest crustal field. Escape rates are subsequently calculated from each of the average distribution functions. A statistically significant increase in escape rate is found for high dayside SZA, compared to low SZA.

Earth's portfolio of extreme sediment transport events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Korup, Oliver

2012-05-01

Quantitative estimates of sediment flux and the global cycling of sediments from hillslopes to rivers, estuaries, deltas, continental shelves, and deep-sea basins have a long research tradition. In this context, extremely large and commensurately rare sediment transport events have so far eluded a systematic analysis. To start filling this knowledge gap I review some of the highest reported sediment yields in mountain rivers impacted by volcanic eruptions, earthquake- and storm-triggered landslide episodes, and catastrophic dam breaks. Extreme specific yields, defined here as those exceeding the 95th percentile of compiled data, are ~ 104 t km- 2 yr- 1 if averaged over 1 yr. These extreme yields vary by eight orders of magnitude, but systematically decay with reference intervals from minutes to millennia such that yields vary by three orders of magnitude for a given reference interval. Sediment delivery from natural dam breaks and pyroclastic eruptions dominate these yields for a given reference interval. Even if averaged over 102-103 yr, the contribution of individual disturbances may remain elevated above corresponding catchment denudation rates. I further estimate rates of sediment (re-)mobilisation by individual giant terrestrial and submarine mass movements. Less than 50 postglacial submarine mass movements have involved an equivalent of ~ 10% of the contemporary annual global flux of fluvial sediment to Earth's oceans, while mobilisation rates by individual events rival the decadal-scale sediment discharge from tectonically active orogens such as Taiwan or New Zealand. Sediment flushing associated with catastrophic natural dam breaks is non-stationary and shows a distinct kink at the last glacial-interglacial transition, owing to the drainage of very large late Pleistocene ice-marginal lakes. Besides emphasising the contribution of high-magnitude and low-frequency events to the global sediment cascade, these findings stress the importance of sediment storage for fuelling rather than buffering high sediment transport rates.

Adaptive Spontaneous Transitions between Two Mechanisms of Numerical Averaging.

PubMed

Brezis, Noam; Bronfman, Zohar Z; Usher, Marius

2015-06-04

We investigated the mechanism with which humans estimate numerical averages. Participants were presented with 4, 8 or 16 (two-digit) numbers, serially and rapidly (2 numerals/second) and were instructed to convey the sequence average. As predicted by a dual, but not a single-component account, we found a non-monotonic influence of set-size on accuracy. Moreover, we observed a marked decrease in RT as set-size increases and RT-accuracy tradeoff in the 4-, but not in the 16-number condition. These results indicate that in accordance with the normative directive, participants spontaneously employ analytic/sequential thinking in the 4-number condition and intuitive/holistic thinking in the 16-number condition. When the presentation rate is extreme (10 items/sec) we find that, while performance still remains high, the estimations are now based on intuitive processing. The results are accounted for by a computational model postulating population-coding underlying intuitive-averaging and working-memory-mediated symbolic procedures underlying analytical-averaging, with flexible allocation between the two.

Age Differences in Energy Absorption in the Upper Extremity During a Descent Movement: Implications for Arresting a Fall

PubMed Central

Stotz, Paula J.; Normandin, Sarah C.; Robinovitch, Stephen N.

2010-01-01

Background Falls are the number one cause of unintentional injury in older adults. The protective response of “breaking the fall” with the outstretched hand is often essential for avoiding injury to the hip and head. In this study, we compared the ability of young and older women to absorb the impact energy of a fall in the outstretched arms. Methods Twenty young (mean age = 21 years) and 20 older (M = 78 years) women were instructed to slowly lower their body weight, similar to the descent phase of a push-up, from body lean angles ranging from 15° to 90°. Measures were acquired of peak upper extremity energy absorption, arm deflection, and hand contact force. Results On average, older women were able to absorb 45% less energy in the dominant arm than young women (1.7 ± 0.5% vs 3.1 ± 0.4% of their body weight × body height; p < .001). These results suggest that, even when both arms participate equally, the average energy content of a forward fall exceeds by 5-fold the average energy that our older participants could absorb and exceeds by 2.7-fold the average energy that young participants could absorb. Conclusions During a descent movement that simulates fall arrest, the energy-absorbing capacity of the upper extremities in older women is nearly half that of young women. Absorbing the full energy of a fall in the upper extremities is a challenging task even for healthy young women. Strengthening of upper extremity muscles should enhance this ability and presumably reduce the risk for injury to the hip and head during a fall. PMID:19861641

Age differences in energy absorption in the upper extremity during a descent movement: implications for arresting a fall.

PubMed

Sran, Meena M; Stotz, Paula J; Normandin, Sarah C; Robinovitch, Stephen N

2010-03-01

Falls are the number one cause of unintentional injury in older adults. The protective response of "breaking the fall" with the outstretched hand is often essential for avoiding injury to the hip and head. In this study, we compared the ability of young and older women to absorb the impact energy of a fall in the outstretched arms. Twenty young (mean age = 21 years) and 20 older (M = 78 years) women were instructed to slowly lower their body weight, similar to the descent phase of a push-up, from body lean angles ranging from 15 degrees to 90 degrees . Measures were acquired of peak upper extremity energy absorption, arm deflection, and hand contact force. On average, older women were able to absorb 45% less energy in the dominant arm than young women (1.7 +/- 0.5% vs 3.1 +/- 0.4% of their body weight x body height; p < .001). These results suggest that, even when both arms participate equally, the average energy content of a forward fall exceeds by 5-fold the average energy that our older participants could absorb and exceeds by 2.7-fold the average energy that young participants could absorb. During a descent movement that simulates fall arrest, the energy-absorbing capacity of the upper extremities in older women is nearly half that of young women. Absorbing the full energy of a fall in the upper extremities is a challenging task even for healthy young women. Strengthening of upper extremity muscles should enhance this ability and presumably reduce the risk for injury to the hip and head during a fall.

Extreme relativistic electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit: Analysis of GOES E > 2 MeV electrons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meredith, Nigel P.; Horne, Richard B.; Isles, John D.; Rodriguez, Juan V.

2015-03-01

Relativistic electrons (E > 1 MeV) cause internal charging on satellites and are an important space weather hazard. A key requirement in space weather research concerns extreme events and knowledge of the largest flux expected to be encountered over the lifetime of a satellite mission. This is interesting both from scientific and practical points of view since satellite operators, engineers, and the insurance industry need this information to better evaluate the effects of extreme events on their spacecraft. Here we conduct an extreme value analysis of daily averaged E > 2 MeV electron fluxes from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) during the 19.5 year period from 1 January 1995 to 30 June 2014. We find that the daily averaged flux measured at GOES West is typically a factor of about 2.5 higher than that measured at GOES East, and we conduct independent analyses for these two locations. The 1 in 10, 1 in 50, and 1 in 100 year daily averaged E > 2 MeV electron fluxes at GOES West are 1.84 ×105, 5.00 ×105, and 7.68 ×105 cm-2 s-1 sr-1, respectively. The corresponding fluxes at GOES East are 6.53 ×104, 1.98 ×105, and 3.25 ×105 cm-2 s-1 sr-1, respectively. The largest fluxes seen during the 19.5 year period on 29 July 2004 were particularly extreme and were seen by satellites at GOES West and GOES East. The extreme value analysis suggests that this event was a 1 in 50 year event.

Academic attainment and special educational needs in extremely preterm children at 11 years of age: the EPICure study.

PubMed

Johnson, S; Hennessy, E; Smith, R; Trikic, R; Wolke, D; Marlow, N

2009-07-01

To assess academic attainment and special educational needs (SEN) in extremely preterm children in middle childhood. Of 307 extremely preterm (< or =25 weeks) survivors born in the UK and Ireland in 1995, 219 (71%) were re-assessed at 11 years of age and compared to 153 classmates born at term, using standardised tests of cognitive ability and academic attainment and teacher reports of school performance and SEN. Multiple imputation was used to correct for selective dropout. Extremely preterm children had significantly lower scores than classmates for cognitive ability (-20 points; 95% CI -23 to -17), reading (-18 points; -22 to -15) and mathematics (-27 points; -31 to -23). Twenty nine (13%) extremely preterm children attended special school. In mainstream schools, 105 (57%) extremely preterm children had SEN (OR 10; 6 to 18) and 103 (55%) required SEN resource provision (OR 10; 6 to 18). Teachers rated 50% of extremely preterm children as having below average attainment compared with 5% of classmates (OR 18; 8 to 41). Extremely preterm children who entered compulsory education an academic year early due to preterm birth had similar academic attainment but required more SEN support (OR 2; 1.0 to 3.6). Extremely preterm survivors remain at high risk for learning impairments and poor academic attainment in middle childhood. A significant proportion require full-time specialist education and over half of those attending mainstream schools require additional health or educational resources to access the national curriculum. The prevalence and impact of SEN are likely to increase as these children approach the transition to secondary school.

Extremal optimization for Sherrington-Kirkpatrick spin glasses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boettcher, S.

2005-08-01

Extremal Optimization (EO), a new local search heuristic, is used to approximate ground states of the mean-field spin glass model introduced by Sherrington and Kirkpatrick. The implementation extends the applicability of EO to systems with highly connected variables. Approximate ground states of sufficient accuracy and with statistical significance are obtained for systems with more than N=1000 variables using ±J bonds. The data reproduces the well-known Parisi solution for the average ground state energy of the model to about 0.01%, providing a high degree of confidence in the heuristic. The results support to less than 1% accuracy rational values of ω=2/3 for the finite-size correction exponent, and of ρ=3/4 for the fluctuation exponent of the ground state energies, neither one of which has been obtained analytically yet. The probability density function for ground state energies is highly skewed and identical within numerical error to the one found for Gaussian bonds. But comparison with infinite-range models of finite connectivity shows that the skewness is connectivity-dependent.

Parents' Reactions to Finding Out That Their Children Have Average or above Average IQ Scores.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dirks, Jean; And Others

1983-01-01

Parents of 41 children who had been given an individually-administered intelligence test were contacted 19 months after testing. Parents of average IQ children were less accurate in their memory of test results. Children with above average IQ experienced extremely low frequencies of sibling rivalry, conceit or pressure. (Author/HLM)

[Osteogenesis imperfecta--operative treatment on lower extremities in children with osteogenesis imperfecta].

PubMed

Sułko, Jerzy; Radło, Wojciech

2005-01-01

The group of 141 children with osteogenesis imperfecta was treated in Orthopaedic Department of the University Children Hospital in Krakow, Poland. In 77 (54.6%) children from this group, we operated on lower extremities. Prophylactic operations, that were intramedullary Rush rodding, we performed in 19 cases (14 femurs and 11 tibias). Sofield-Millar procedures we performed in 58 children. We operated 321 times - there are 4 operations on average in one child. Average follow-up period was 6.7 years. We operated 473 long bones: 234 femurs and 239 tibias. We did 479 osteotomies. First operations were done at the age of 9 years on average (1.5-21 years). Further operations, 3 in each patient on average, we performed in period 37 months from one to another on tibias and 49 months on femurs. In all operated children we achieved full axis correction and their activity after operation improved. In order to assess that, we used the Bleck scale. In general, before operation, 54 (70%) children did not walk, and, in contrast, after operations 53 (69%) started walking. Operative treatment of the lower extremities in children with osteogenesis imperfecta improves their clinical physical abilities, quality of life and allows increase in activities.

Food Web Structure in a Harsh Glacier-Fed River

PubMed Central

Clitherow, Leonie R.; Carrivick, Jonathan L.; Brown, Lee E.

2013-01-01

Glacier retreat is occurring across the world, and associated river ecosystems are expected to respond more rapidly than those in flowing waters in other regions. The river environment directly downstream of a glacier snout is characterised by extreme low water temperature and unstable channel sediments but these habitats may become rarer with widespread glacier retreat. In these extreme environments food web dynamics have been little studied, yet they could offer opportunities to test food web theories using highly resolved food webs owing to their low taxonomic richness. This study examined the interactions of macroinvertebrate and diatom taxa in the Ödenwinkelkees river, Austrian central Alps between 2006 and 2011. The webs were characterised by low taxon richness (13–22), highly connected individuals (directed connectance up to 0.19) and short mean food chain length (2.00–2.36). The dominant macroinvertebrates were members of the Chironomidae genus Diamesa and had an omnivorous diet rich in detritus and diatoms as well as other Chironomidae. Simuliidae (typically detritivorous filterers) had a diet rich in diatoms but also showed evidence of predation on Chironomidae larvae. Food webs showed strong species-averaged and individual size structuring but mass-abundance scaling coefficients were larger than those predicted by metabolic theory, perhaps due to a combination of spatial averaging effects of patchily distributed consumers and resources, and/or consumers deriving unquantified resources from microorganisms attached to the large amounts of ingested rock fragments. Comparison of food web structural metrics with those from 62 published river webs suggest these glacier-fed river food web properties were extreme but in line with general food web scaling predictions, a finding which could prove useful to forecast the effects of anticipated future glacier retreat on the structure of aquatic food webs. PMID:23613751

The added value of convection permitting simulations of extreme precipitation events over the eastern Mediterranean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zittis, G.; Bruggeman, A.; Camera, C.; Hadjinicolaou, P.; Lelieveld, J.

2017-07-01

Climate change is expected to substantially influence precipitation amounts and distribution. To improve simulations of extreme rainfall events, we analyzed the performance of different convection and microphysics parameterizations of the WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting) model at very high horizontal resolutions (12, 4 and 1 km). Our study focused on the eastern Mediterranean climate change hot-spot. Five extreme rainfall events over Cyprus were identified from observations and were dynamically downscaled from the ERA-Interim (EI) dataset with WRF. We applied an objective ranking scheme, using a 1-km gridded observational dataset over Cyprus and six different performance metrics, to investigate the skill of the WRF configurations. We evaluated the rainfall timing and amounts for the different resolutions, and discussed the observational uncertainty over the particular extreme events by comparing three gridded precipitation datasets (E-OBS, APHRODITE and CHIRPS). Simulations with WRF capture rainfall over the eastern Mediterranean reasonably well for three of the five selected extreme events. For these three cases, the WRF simulations improved the ERA-Interim data, which strongly underestimate the rainfall extremes over Cyprus. The best model performance is obtained for the January 1989 event, simulated with an average bias of 4% and a modified Nash-Sutcliff of 0.72 for the 5-member ensemble of the 1-km simulations. We found overall added value for the convection-permitting simulations, especially over regions of high-elevation. Interestingly, for some cases the intermediate 4-km nest was found to outperform the 1-km simulations for low-elevation coastal parts of Cyprus. Finally, we identified significant and inconsistent discrepancies between the three, state of the art, gridded precipitation datasets for the tested events, highlighting the observational uncertainty in the region.

Temporal Clustering of Regional-Scale Extreme Precipitation Events in Southern Switzerland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barton, Yannick; Giannakaki, Paraskevi; Von Waldow, Harald; Chevalier, Clément; Pfhal, Stephan; Martius, Olivia

2017-04-01

Temporal clustering of extreme precipitation events on subseasonal time scales is a form of compound extremes and is of crucial importance for the formation of large-scale flood events. Here, the temporal clustering of regional-scale extreme precipitation events in southern Switzerland is studied. These precipitation events are relevant for the flooding of lakes in southern Switzerland and northern Italy. This research determines whether temporal clustering is present and then identifies the dynamics that are responsible for the clustering. An observation-based gridded precipitation dataset of Swiss daily rainfall sums and ECMWF reanalysis datasets are used. To analyze the clustering in the precipitation time series a modified version of Ripley's K function is used. It determines the average number of extreme events in a time period, to characterize temporal clustering on subseasonal time scales and to determine the statistical significance of the clustering. Significant clustering of regional-scale precipitation extremes is found on subseasonal time scales during the fall season. Four high-impact clustering episodes are then selected and the dynamics responsible for the clustering are examined. During the four clustering episodes, all heavy precipitation events were associated with an upperlevel breaking Rossby wave over western Europe and in most cases strong diabatic processes upstream over the Atlantic played a role in the amplification of these breaking waves. Atmospheric blocking downstream over eastern Europe supported this wave breaking during two of the clustering episodes. During one of the clustering periods, several extratropical transitions of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic contributed to the formation of high-amplitude ridges over the Atlantic basin and downstream wave breaking. During another event, blocking over Alaska assisted the phase locking of the Rossby waves downstream over the Atlantic.

Predictions of extreme precipitation and sea-level rise under climate change.

PubMed

Senior, C A; Jones, R G; Lowe, J A; Durman, C F; Hudson, D

2002-07-15

Two aspects of global climate change are particularly relevant to river and coastal flooding: changes in extreme precipitation and changes in sea level. In this paper we summarize the relevant findings of the IPCC Third Assessment Report and illustrate some of the common results found by the current generation of coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs), using the Hadley Centre models. Projections of changes in extreme precipitation, sea-level rise and storm surges affecting the UK will be shown from the Hadley Centre regional models and the Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory storm-surge model. A common finding from AOGCMs is that in a warmer climate the intensity of precipitation will increase due to a more intense hydrological cycle. This leads to reduced return periods (i.e. more frequent occurrences) of extreme precipitation in many locations. The Hadley Centre regional model simulates reduced return periods of extreme precipitation in a number of flood-sensitive areas of the UK. In addition, simulated changes in storminess and a rise in average sea level around the UK lead to reduced return periods of extreme high coastal water events. The confidence in all these results is limited by poor spatial resolution in global coupled models and by uncertainties in the physical processes in both global and regional models, and is specific to the climate change scenario used.

Evaluation of satellite-retrieved extreme precipitation using gauge observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lockhoff, M.; Zolina, O.; Simmer, C.; Schulz, J.

2012-04-01

Precipitation extremes have already been intensively studied employing rain gauge datasets. Their main advantage is that they represent a direct measurement with a relatively high temporal coverage. Their main limitation however is their poor spatial coverage and thus a low representativeness in many parts of the world. In contrast, satellites can provide global coverage and there are meanwhile data sets available that are on one hand long enough to be used for extreme value analysis and that have on the other hand the necessary spatial and temporal resolution to capture extremes. However, satellite observations provide only an indirect mean to determine precipitation and there are many potential observational and methodological weaknesses in particular over land surfaces that may constitute doubts concerning their usability for the analysis of precipitation extremes. By comparing basic climatological metrics of precipitation (totals, intensities, number of wet days) as well as respective characteristics of PDFs, absolute and relative extremes of satellite and observational data this paper aims at assessing to which extent satellite products are suitable for analysing extreme precipitation events. In a first step the assessment focuses on Europe taking into consideration various satellite products available, e.g. data sets provided by the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP). First results indicate that satellite-based estimates do not only represent the monthly averaged precipitation very similar to rain gauge estimates but they also capture the day-to-day occurrence fairly well. Larger differences can be found though when looking at the corresponding intensities.

Influence of Climate Oscillations on Extreme Precipitation in Texas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhatia, N.; Singh, V. P.; Srivastav, R. K.

2016-12-01

Much research in the field of hydroclimatology is focusing on the impact of climate variability on hydrologic extremes. Recent studies show that the unique geographical location and the enormous areal extent, coupled with extensive variations in climate oscillations, have intensified the regional hydrologic cycle of Texas. The state-wide extreme precipitation events can actually be attributed to sea-surface pressure and temperature anomalies, such as Bermuda High and Jet Streams, which are further triggered by such climate oscillations. This study aims to quantify the impact of five major Atlantic and Pacific Ocean related climate oscillations: (i) Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), (ii) North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), (iii) Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), (iv) Pacific North American Pattern (PNA), and (v) Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), on extreme precipitation in Texas. Their respective effects will be determined for both climate divisions delineated by the National Climatic Data Centre (NCDC) and climate regions defined by the Köppen Climate Classification System. This study will adopt a weighted correlation approach to attain the robust correlation coefficients while addressing the regionally variable data outliers for extreme precipitation. Further, the variation of robust correlation coefficients across Texas is found to be related to the station elevation, historical average temperature, and total precipitation in the months of extremes. The research will shed light on the relationship between precipitation extremes and climate variability, thus aiding regional water boards in planning, designing, and managing the respective systems as per the future climate change.

The analyses of extreme climate events over China based on CMIP5 historical and future simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, S.; Dong, W.; Feng, J.; Chou, J.

2013-12-01

The extreme climate events have a serious influence on human society. Based on observations and 12 simulations from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), Climatic extremes and their changes over china in history and future scenarios of three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) are analyzed. Because of the background of global warming, in observations, the frost days (FD) and low-temperature threshold days (TN10P) have decreasing trend, and summer days (SU), high-temperature threshold days (TX90P), the heavy precipitation days (R20) and contribution of heavy precipitation days (P95T) show an increasing trend. Most coupled models can basically simulate main characteristics of most extreme indexes. The models reproduce the mean FD and TX90P value best and can give basic trends of the FD, TN10P, SU and TX90P. High correlation coefficients between simulated results and observation are found in FD, SU and P95T. For FD and SU index, most of the models have good ability to capture the spatial differences between the mean state of the 1986-2005 and 1961-1980 periods, but for other indexes, most of models' simulation ability for spatial disparity are not so satisfactory and have to be promoted. Under the high emission scenario of RCP8.5, the century-scale linear changes of Multi-Model Ensembles (MME) for FD, SU, TN10P, TX90P, R20 and P95T are -46.9, 46.0, -27.1, 175.4, 2.9 days and 9.9%, respectively. Due to the complexities of physical process parameterizations and the limitation of forcing data, a large uncertainty still exists in the simulations of climatic extremes. Fig.1 Observed and modeled multi-year average for each index (Dotted line: observation) Table1. Extreme index definition

Uniformly high-order accurate non-oscillatory schemes, 1

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Harten, A.; Osher, S.

1985-01-01

The construction and the analysis of nonoscillatory shock capturing methods for the approximation of hyperbolic conservation laws was begun. These schemes share many desirable properties with total variation diminishing schemes (TVD), but TVD schemes have at most first order accuracy, in the sense of truncation error, at extreme of the solution. A uniformly second order approximation was constucted, which is nonoscillatory in the sense that the number of extrema of the discrete solution is not increasing in time. This is achieved via a nonoscillatory piecewise linear reconstruction of the solution from its cell averages, time evolution through an approximate solution of the resulting initial value problem, and averaging of this approximate solution over each cell.

Mass Balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet at High Elevations.

PubMed

Thomas; Akins; Csatho; Fahnestock; Gogineni; Kim; Sonntag

2000-07-21

Comparison of ice discharge from higher elevation areas of the entire Greenland Ice Sheet with total snow accumulation gives estimates of ice thickening rates over the past few decades. On average, the region has been in balance, but with thickening of 21 centimeters per year in the southwest and thinning of 30 centimeters per year in the southeast. The north of the ice sheet shows less variability, with average thickening of 2 centimeters per year in the northeast and thinning of about 5 centimeters per year in the northwest. These results agree well with those from repeated altimeter surveys, except in the extreme south, where we find substantially higher rates of both thickening and thinning.

Superior radiation-resistant nanoengineered austenitic 304L stainless steel for applications in extreme radiation environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, C.; Zheng, S.; Wei, C. C.; Wu, Y.; Shao, L.; Yang, Y.; Hartwig, K. T.; Maloy, S. A.; Zinkle, S. J.; Allen, T. R.; Wang, H.; Zhang, X.

2015-01-01

Nuclear energy provides more than 10% of electrical power internationally, and the increasing engagement of nuclear energy is essential to meet the rapid worldwide increase in energy demand. A paramount challenge in the development of advanced nuclear reactors is the discovery of advanced structural materials that can endure extreme environments, such as severe neutron irradiation damage at high temperatures. It has been known for decades that high dose radiation can introduce significant void swelling accompanied by precipitation in austenitic stainless steel (SS). Here we report, however, that through nanoengineering, ultra-fine grained (UFG) 304L SS with an average grain size of ~100 nm, can withstand Fe ion irradiation at 500°C to 80 displacements-per-atom (dpa) with moderate grain coarsening. Compared to coarse grained (CG) counterparts, swelling resistance of UFG SS is improved by nearly an order of magnitude and swelling rate is reduced by a factor of 5. M23C6 precipitates, abundant in irradiated CG SS, are largely absent in UFG SS. This study provides a nanoengineering approach to design and discover radiation tolerant metallic materials for applications in extreme radiation environments.

Women live longer than men even during severe famines and epidemics

PubMed Central

Zarulli, Virginia; Barthold Jones, Julia A.; Oksuzyan, Anna; Lindahl-Jacobsen, Rune; Christensen, Kaare; Vaupel, James W.

2018-01-01

Women in almost all modern populations live longer than men. Research to date provides evidence for both biological and social factors influencing this gender gap. Conditions when both men and women experience extremely high levels of mortality risk are unexplored sources of information. We investigate the survival of both sexes in seven populations under extreme conditions from famines, epidemics, and slavery. Women survived better than men: In all populations, they had lower mortality across almost all ages, and, with the exception of one slave population, they lived longer on average than men. Gender differences in infant mortality contributed the most to the gender gap in life expectancy, indicating that newborn girls were able to survive extreme mortality hazards better than newborn boys. Our results confirm the ubiquity of a female survival advantage even when mortality is extraordinarily high. The hypothesis that the survival advantage of women has fundamental biological underpinnings is supported by the fact that under very harsh conditions females survive better than males even at infant ages when behavioral and social differences may be minimal or favor males. Our findings also indicate that the female advantage differs across environments and is modulated by social factors. PMID:29311321

Superior radiation-resistant nanoengineered austenitic 304L stainless steel for applications in extreme radiation environments

DOE PAGES

Sun, C.; Zheng, S.; Wei, C. C.; ...

2015-01-15

Nuclear energy provides more than 10% of electrical power internationally, and the increasing engagement of nuclear energy is essential to meet the rapid worldwide increase in energy demand. A paramount challenge in the development of advanced nuclear reactors is the discovery of advanced structural materials that can endure extreme environments, such as severe neutron irradiation damage at high temperatures. It has been known for decades that high dose radiation can introduce significant void swelling accompanied by precipitation in austenitic stainless steel (SS). Here we report, however, that through nanoengineering, ultra-fine grained (UFG) 304L SS with an average grain size ofmore » ~100 nm, can withstand Fe ion irradiation at 500°C to 80 displacements-per-atom (dpa) with moderate grain coarsening. Compared to coarse grained (CG) counterparts, swelling resistance of UFG SS is improved by nearly an order of magnitude and swelling rate is reduced by a factor of 5. M₂₃C₆ precipitates, abundant in irradiated CG SS, are largely absent in UFG SS. This study provides a nanoengineering approach to design and discover radiation tolerant metallic materials for applications in extreme radiation environments.« less

Superior radiation-resistant nanoengineered austenitic 304L stainless steel for applications in extreme radiation environments.

PubMed

Sun, C; Zheng, S; Wei, C C; Wu, Y; Shao, L; Yang, Y; Hartwig, K T; Maloy, S A; Zinkle, S J; Allen, T R; Wang, H; Zhang, X

2015-01-15

Nuclear energy provides more than 10% of electrical power internationally, and the increasing engagement of nuclear energy is essential to meet the rapid worldwide increase in energy demand. A paramount challenge in the development of advanced nuclear reactors is the discovery of advanced structural materials that can endure extreme environments, such as severe neutron irradiation damage at high temperatures. It has been known for decades that high dose radiation can introduce significant void swelling accompanied by precipitation in austenitic stainless steel (SS). Here we report, however, that through nanoengineering, ultra-fine grained (UFG) 304 L SS with an average grain size of ~100 nm, can withstand Fe ion irradiation at 500 °C to 80 displacements-per-atom (dpa) with moderate grain coarsening. Compared to coarse grained (CG) counterparts, swelling resistance of UFG SS is improved by nearly an order of magnitude and swelling rate is reduced by a factor of 5. M(23)C(6) precipitates, abundant in irradiated CG SS, are largely absent in UFG SS. This study provides a nanoengineering approach to design and discover radiation tolerant metallic materials for applications in extreme radiation environments.

Superior radiation-resistant nanoengineered austenitic 304L stainless steel for applications in extreme radiation environments

PubMed Central

Sun, C.; Zheng, S.; Wei, C. C.; Wu, Y.; Shao, L.; Yang, Y.; Hartwig, K. T.; Maloy, S. A.; Zinkle, S. J.; Allen, T. R.; Wang, H.; Zhang, X.

2015-01-01

Nuclear energy provides more than 10% of electrical power internationally, and the increasing engagement of nuclear energy is essential to meet the rapid worldwide increase in energy demand. A paramount challenge in the development of advanced nuclear reactors is the discovery of advanced structural materials that can endure extreme environments, such as severe neutron irradiation damage at high temperatures. It has been known for decades that high dose radiation can introduce significant void swelling accompanied by precipitation in austenitic stainless steel (SS). Here we report, however, that through nanoengineering, ultra-fine grained (UFG) 304L SS with an average grain size of ~100 nm, can withstand Fe ion irradiation at 500°C to 80 displacements-per-atom (dpa) with moderate grain coarsening. Compared to coarse grained (CG) counterparts, swelling resistance of UFG SS is improved by nearly an order of magnitude and swelling rate is reduced by a factor of 5. M23C6 precipitates, abundant in irradiated CG SS, are largely absent in UFG SS. This study provides a nanoengineering approach to design and discover radiation tolerant metallic materials for applications in extreme radiation environments. PMID:25588326

[Ultrasonic monitoring foam sclerotherapy for serious varicosis of lower extremity].

PubMed

Yin, Heng-hui; Pan, Fu-shun; Huang, Xue-ling; Chang, Guang-qi; Wang, Shen-ming

2013-11-19

To evaluate the efficacy and safety of foam sclerotherapy for lower extremity varicosis in C4 to C6 patients. A total of 32 patients (32 limbs) with serious lower extremity varicosis classified as C4 to C6 were enrolled. Ultrasonic monitoring of foam sclerotherapy was performed after subfascial endoscopic perforator suture and saphenous vein ligation. They were followed up monthly at outpatient department. Duplex Doppler scan was performed during each interview. All patients were treated successfully. An average of 3.2 perforators were ligated per leg (1-5 perforators). The average volume of foam sclerosing agent was 27.5 ml per leg. Mild chest tightness was observed in one patient but computed tomography (CT) scan excluded pulmonary embolism. Obvious local inflammatory reaction was observed in 4 patients. Residual vein mass without blood signal was seen in 3 patients. No such serious complication as cerebral ischemia was observed. The average follow-up period was 4.8 (1-10) months. Obvious varicose veins and clinical symptoms disappeared at 1 month. And venous ulcers in patients classified as C5 healed within 3 months. Ultrasonic monitoring of foam sclerotherapy, incorporation with saphenous vein ligation and subfascial endoscopic perforator suture, is both safe and effective in the treatment of serious lower extremity varicosis classified as C4 to C6.

Climate Change and Fetal Health: The Impacts of Exposure to Extreme Temperatures in New York City

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ngo, Nicole S.; Horton, Radley M.

2015-01-01

Background: Climate change is projected to increase the frequency, intensity, and duration of heat waves while reducing cold extremes, yet few studies have examined the relationship between temperature and fetal health. Objectives: We estimate the impacts of extreme temperatures on birth weight and gestational age in Manhattan, a borough in New York City, and explore differences by socioeconomic status (SES). Methods: We combine average daily temperature from 1985 to 2010 with birth certificate data in Manhattan for the same time period. We then generate 33 downscaled climate model time series to project impacts on fetal health. Results: We find exposure to an extra day where average temperature 25 F and 85 F during pregnancy is associated with a 1.8 and 1.7 g (respectively) reduction in birth weight, but the impact varies by SES, particularly for extreme heat, where teen mothers seem most vulnerable. We find no meaningful, significant effect on gestational age. Using projections of temperature from these climate models, we project average net reductions in birth weight in the 2070- 2099 period of 4.6 g in the business-as-usual scenario. Conclusions: Results suggest that increasing heat events from climate change could adversely impact birth weight and vary by SES.

Modelling average maximum daily temperature using r largest order statistics: An application to South African data

PubMed Central

2018-01-01

Natural hazards (events that may cause actual disasters) are established in the literature as major causes of various massive and destructive problems worldwide. The occurrences of earthquakes, floods and heat waves affect millions of people through several impacts. These include cases of hospitalisation, loss of lives and economic challenges. The focus of this study was on the risk reduction of the disasters that occur because of extremely high temperatures and heat waves. Modelling average maximum daily temperature (AMDT) guards against the disaster risk and may also help countries towards preparing for extreme heat. This study discusses the use of the r largest order statistics approach of extreme value theory towards modelling AMDT over the period of 11 years, that is, 2000–2010. A generalised extreme value distribution for r largest order statistics is fitted to the annual maxima. This is performed in an effort to study the behaviour of the r largest order statistics. The method of maximum likelihood is used in estimating the target parameters and the frequency of occurrences of the hottest days is assessed. The study presents a case study of South Africa in which the data for the non-winter season (September–April of each year) are used. The meteorological data used are the AMDT that are collected by the South African Weather Service and provided by Eskom. The estimation of the shape parameter reveals evidence of a Weibull class as an appropriate distribution for modelling AMDT in South Africa. The extreme quantiles for specified return periods are estimated using the quantile function and the best model is chosen through the use of the deviance statistic with the support of the graphical diagnostic tools. The Entropy Difference Test (EDT) is used as a specification test for diagnosing the fit of the models to the data.

European temperature responses to blocking and ridge regional patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sousa, Pedro M.; Trigo, Ricardo M.; Barriopedro, David; Soares, Pedro M. M.; Santos, João A.

2018-01-01

Blocking occurrence and its impacts on European temperature have been studied in the last decade. However, most previous studies on blocking impacts have focused on winter only, disregarding its fingerprint in summer and differences with other synoptic patterns that also trigger temperature extremes. In this work, we provide a clear distinction between high-latitude blocking and sub-tropical ridges occurring in three sectors of the Euro-Atlantic region, describing their climatology and consequent impacts on European temperature during both winter and summer. Winter blocks (ridges) are generally associated to colder (warmer) than average conditions over large regions of Europe, in some areas with anomalies larger than 5 °C, particularly for the patterns occurring in the Atlantic and Central European sectors. During summer, there is a more regional response characterized by above average temperature for both blocking and ridge patterns, especially those occurring in continental areas, although negative temperature anomalies persist in southernmost areas during blocking. An objective analysis of the different forcing mechanisms associated to each considered weather regime has been performed, quantifying the importance of the following processes in causing the temperature anomalies: horizontal advection, vertical advection and diabatic heating. While during winter advection processes tend to be more relevant to explain temperature responses, in summer radiative heating under enhanced insolation plays a crucial role for both blocking and ridges. Finally, the changes in the distributions of seasonal temperature and in the frequencies of extreme temperature indices were also examined for specific areas of Europe. Winter blocking and ridge patterns are key drivers in the occurrence of regional cold and warm extreme temperatures, respectively. In summer, they are associated with substantial changes in the frequency of extremely warm days, but with different signatures in southern Europe. We conclude that there has been some misusage of the traditional blocking definition in the attribution of extreme events.

Examining Fundamental Movement Competency and Closed-Chain Upper-Extremity Dynamic Balance in Swimmers.

PubMed

Bullock, Garrett S; Brookreson, Nate; Knab, Amy M; Butler, Robert J

2017-06-01

Abnormal fundamental movement patterns and upper-quarter dynamic balance are proposed mechanisms affecting athletic performance and injury risk. There are few studies investigating functional movement and closed-chain upper-extremity dynamic stability in swimmers. The purpose of this study was to determine differences in fundamental movement competency and closed-chain upper-extremity dynamic balance, using the Functional Movement Screen (FMS) and Upper-Quarter Y Balance Test (YBT-UQ), of high school (HS; n = 70) and collegiate (COL; n = 70) swimmers. Variables included the individual movement tests on the FMS and the average normalized reach (percent limb length [%LL]) for each direction, with the YBT-UQ. Statistical analysis was completed using a chi square for the independent test scores on the FMS while independent samples t-test to examine performance on the YBT-UQ (p ≤ 0.05). HS swimmers exhibited a statistically significant greater percentage of below average performance (score of 0 or 1) on the following FMS tests: lunge (HS: 22.9%, COL: 4.3%), hurdle step (HS: 31.4%, COL: 7.1%), and push-up (HS: 61.4%, COL: 31.4%). Furthermore, COL males performed worse in the lunge (male: 9%, female: 0%), whereas COL females had poorer efficiency in the push-up (male: 17.6%, female: 44%). Significant effects of competition level and sex were observed in YBT-UQ medial reach (HS: female 92.06, male 101.63; COL: female 101.3, male 101.5% LL). Individual fundamental movement patterns that involved lumbopelvic neuromuscular control differed between HS and COL swimmers. General upper-extremity dynamic balance differed between competition levels. These data may be helpful in understanding injury and performance-based normative data for participation and return to swimming.

High resolution modelling of extreme precipitation events in urban areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Siemerink, Martijn; Volp, Nicolette; Schuurmans, Wytze; Deckers, Dave

2015-04-01

The present day society needs to adjust to the effects of climate change. More extreme weather conditions are expected, which can lead to longer periods of drought, but also to more extreme precipitation events. Urban water systems are not designed for such extreme events. Most sewer systems are not able to drain the excessive storm water, causing urban flooding. This leads to high economic damage. In order to take appropriate measures against extreme urban storms, detailed knowledge about the behaviour of the urban water system above and below the streets is required. To investigate the behaviour of urban water systems during extreme precipitation events new assessment tools are necessary. These tools should provide a detailed and integral description of the flow in the full domain of overland runoff, sewer flow, surface water flow and groundwater flow. We developed a new assessment tool, called 3Di, which provides detailed insight in the urban water system. This tool is based on a new numerical methodology that can accurately deal with the interaction between overland runoff, sewer flow and surface water flow. A one-dimensional model for the sewer system and open channel flow is fully coupled to a two-dimensional depth-averaged model that simulates the overland flow. The tool uses a subgrid-based approach in order to take high resolution information of the sewer system and of the terrain into account [1, 2]. The combination of using the high resolution information and the subgrid based approach results in an accurate and efficient modelling tool. It is now possible to simulate entire urban water systems using extreme high resolution (0.5m x 0.5m) terrain data in combination with a detailed sewer and surface water network representation. The new tool has been tested in several Dutch cities, such as Rotterdam, Amsterdam and The Hague. We will present the results of an extreme precipitation event in the city of Schiedam (The Netherlands). This city deals with significant soil consolidation and the low-lying areas are prone to urban flooding. The simulation results are compared with measurements in the sewer network. References [1] Guus S. Stelling G.S., 2012. Quadtree flood simulations with subgrid digital elevation models. Water Management 165 (WM1):1329-1354. [2] Vincenzo Cassuli and Guus S. Stelling, 2013. A semi-implicit numerical model for urban drainage systems. International Journal for Numerical Methods in Fluids. Vol. 73:600-614. DOI: 10.1002/fld.3817

Glomerular hypertrophy in subjects with low nephron number: contributions of sex, body size and race

PubMed Central

Puelles, Victor G.; Douglas-Denton, Rebecca N.; Zimanyi, Monika A.; Armitage, James A.; Hughson, Michael D.; Kerr, Peter G.; Bertram, John F.

2014-01-01

Background We have shown that low nephron number (Nglom) is a strong determinant of individual glomerular volume (IGV) in male Americans. However, whether the same pattern is present in female Americans remains unclear. The contributions of body surface area (BSA) and race to IGV in the context of Nglom also require further evaluation. Methods Kidneys without overt renal disease were collected at autopsy in Mississippi, USA. The extremes of female Nglom were used to define high and low Nglom for both sexes. Nglom and IGV were estimated by design-based stereology. A total of 24 African and Caucasian American females (n = 12 per race; 6 per Nglom extreme) were included. These subjects were subsequently matched to 24 comparable males by age and Nglom and to 18 additional males by age, Nglom and BSA. Results IGV average and variance were very similar in female African and Caucasian Americans with high and low Nglom. Males with low Nglom from both races showed greater IGV average and variance than comparable females matched by age and Nglom. These differences in IGV between sexes were not observed in Caucasian Americans with low Nglom that were matched by age, Nglom and BSA. In contrast, glomeruli from African Americans were larger than those from Caucasian Americans, especially in subjects with high Nglom. Conclusions While female Americans with low Nglom did not show glomerular hypertrophy, comparable males with low Nglom showed marked glomerular hypertrophy that was closely associated with high BSA. Glomerular size in African Americans may be confounded by multiple additional factors. PMID:24792374

On the causes of variability in amounts of airborne grass pollen in Melbourne, Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Morton, Julian; Bye, John; Pezza, Alexandre; Newbigin, Edward

2011-07-01

In Melbourne, Australia, airborne grass pollen is the predominant cause of hay fever (seasonal rhinitis) during late spring and early summer, with levels of airborne grass pollen also influencing hospital admissions for asthma. In order to improve predictions of conditions that are potentially hazardous to susceptible individuals, we have sought to better understand the causes of diurnal, intra-seasonal and inter-seasonal variability of atmospheric grass pollen concentrations (APC) by analysing grass pollen count data for Melbourne for 16 grass pollen seasons from 1991 to 2008 (except 1994 and 1995). Some of notable features identified in this analysis were that on days when either extreme (>100 pollen grains m-3) or high (50-100 pollen grains m-3) levels of grass pollen were recorded the winds were of continental origin. In contrast, on days with a low (<20 pollen grains m-3) concentration of grass pollen, winds were of maritime origin. On extreme and high grass pollen days, a peak in APC occurred on average around 1730 hours, probably due to a reduction in surface boundary layer turbulence. The sum of daily APC for each grass pollen season was highly correlated ( r = 0.79) with spring rainfall in Melbourne for that year, with about 60% of a declining linear trend across the study period being attributable to a reduction of meat cattle and sheep (and hence grazing land) in rural areas around Melbourne. Finally, all of the ten extreme pollen events (3 days or more with APC > 100 pollen grains m-3) during the study period were characterised by an average downward vertical wind anomaly in the surface boundary layer over Melbourne. Together these findings form a basis for a fine resolution atmospheric general circulation model for grass pollen in Melbourne's air that can be used to predict daily (and hourly) APC. This information will be useful to those sectors of Melbourne's population that suffer from allergic problems.

On the causes of variability in amounts of airborne grass pollen in Melbourne, Australia.

PubMed

de Morton, Julian; Bye, John; Pezza, Alexandre; Newbigin, Edward

2011-07-01

In Melbourne, Australia, airborne grass pollen is the predominant cause of hay fever (seasonal rhinitis) during late spring and early summer, with levels of airborne grass pollen also influencing hospital admissions for asthma. In order to improve predictions of conditions that are potentially hazardous to susceptible individuals, we have sought to better understand the causes of diurnal, intra-seasonal and inter-seasonal variability of atmospheric grass pollen concentrations (APC) by analysing grass pollen count data for Melbourne for 16 grass pollen seasons from 1991 to 2008 (except 1994 and 1995). Some of notable features identified in this analysis were that on days when either extreme (>100 pollen grains m(-3)) or high (50-100 pollen grains m(-3)) levels of grass pollen were recorded the winds were of continental origin. In contrast, on days with a low (<20 pollen grains m(-3)) concentration of grass pollen, winds were of maritime origin. On extreme and high grass pollen days, a peak in APC occurred on average around 1730 hours, probably due to a reduction in surface boundary layer turbulence. The sum of daily APC for each grass pollen season was highly correlated (r = 0.79) with spring rainfall in Melbourne for that year, with about 60% of a declining linear trend across the study period being attributable to a reduction of meat cattle and sheep (and hence grazing land) in rural areas around Melbourne. Finally, all of the ten extreme pollen events (3 days or more with APC > 100 pollen grains m(-3)) during the study period were characterised by an average downward vertical wind anomaly in the surface boundary layer over Melbourne. Together these findings form a basis for a fine resolution atmospheric general circulation model for grass pollen in Melbourne's air that can be used to predict daily (and hourly) APC. This information will be useful to those sectors of Melbourne's population that suffer from allergic problems.

Aerosol forcing of extreme summer drought over North China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, L.

2017-12-01

The frequency of extreme summer drought has been increasing in North China during the past sixty years, which has caused serious water shortages. It remains unclear whether anthropogenic forcing has contributed to the increasing extreme droughts. Using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) re-analysis data and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) model simulations with various combinations of historical forcings, the authors investigated the driving mechanism behind the observed changes. Metrological drought is usually measured by precipitation anomalies, which show lower fidelity in current climate models compared to largescale circulation patterns. Based on NCEP/NCAR re-analysis, a linear relationship is firstly established between the weakest regional average 850 hPa southerly winds and extreme summer drought. This meridional winds index (MWI) is then used as a proxy for attribution of extreme North China drought using CMIP5 outputs. Examination of the CMIP5 simulations reveals that the probability of the extreme summer droughts with the first percentile of MWI for 1850-2004 under anthropogenic forcing has increased by 100%, on average, relative to a pre-industrial control run. The more frequent occurrence of extremely weak MWIs or drought over North China is ascribed from weakened climate and East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) circulation due to the direct cooling effect from increased aerosol.

Real-time and sub-wavelength ultrafast coherent diffraction imaging in the extreme ultraviolet.

PubMed

Zürch, M; Rothhardt, J; Hädrich, S; Demmler, S; Krebs, M; Limpert, J; Tünnermann, A; Guggenmos, A; Kleineberg, U; Spielmann, C

2014-12-08

Coherent Diffraction Imaging is a technique to study matter with nanometer-scale spatial resolution based on coherent illumination of the sample with hard X-ray, soft X-ray or extreme ultraviolet light delivered from synchrotrons or more recently X-ray Free-Electron Lasers. This robust technique simultaneously allows quantitative amplitude and phase contrast imaging. Laser-driven high harmonic generation XUV-sources allow table-top realizations. However, the low conversion efficiency of lab-based sources imposes either a large scale laser system or long exposure times, preventing many applications. Here we present a lensless imaging experiment combining a high numerical aperture (NA = 0.8) setup with a high average power fibre laser driven high harmonic source. The high flux and narrow-band harmonic line at 33.2 nm enables either sub-wavelength spatial resolution close to the Abbe limit (Δr = 0.8λ) for long exposure time, or sub-70 nm imaging in less than one second. The unprecedented high spatial resolution, compactness of the setup together with the real-time capability paves the way for a plethora of applications in fundamental and life sciences.

Risk factors associated with upper extremity palsy after expansive open-door laminoplasty for cervical myelopathy.

PubMed

Wu, Feng L; Sun, Yu; Pan, Sheng F; Zhang, Li; Liu, Zhong J

2014-06-01

Postoperative paresis, so-called C5 palsy, of the upper extremities is a common complication of cervical surgery. There have been several reports about upper extremity palsy after cervical laminoplasty for patients with cervical myelopathy. However, the possible risk factors remain unclear. To investigate the factors associated with the development of upper extremity palsy after expansive open-door laminoplasty for cervical myelopathy. A retrospective review of medical records. A total of 102 patients (76 men and 26 women) were eligible for analysis in this study. The mean age of the patients was 58.7 years (range 35-81 years). Sixteen patients (13 men and 3 women, average age 62.8 years) with palsy were categorized as Group P, and eighty-six patients (63 men and 23 women, average age 57.8 years) without palsy as Group C. The demographic data collected from both groups were age, sex, duration of symptoms, disease, and type of surgical procedure. Cervical curvature index, width of the intervertebral foramen (WIF) at C5, anterior protrusion of the superior articular process (APSAP), number of compressed segments, high-signal intensity zone at the level corresponding to C3-C5 (HIZ:C3-C5), and posterior shift of the spinal cord (PSSC) were also evaluated. Upper extremity palsy was defined as weakness of Grade 4 or less of the key muscles in the upper extremity by manual muscle test without any deterioration of myelopathic symptoms after surgery. Comparisons were made with screen for the parameters with significant differences, and then we further analyzed these parameters by logistic regression analysis (the forward method) to verify the risk factors of the upper extremity palsy. Significant differences in diagnosis, the type of procedure, WIF, APSAP, and HIZ:C3-C5 were observed between the two groups. No statistical difference in PSSC between the groups was noted (2.06 vs. 2.53 mm, p=.247). In logistic regression analysis, ossification of the posterior longitudinal ligament (OPLL), cervical open-door laminoplasty together with posterior instrumented fusion (CLP+PIF), and WIF were found to be significant risk factors for postoperative upper extremity palsy. Patients with preoperative foraminal stenosis, OPLL, and additional iatrogenic foraminal stenosis because of CLP+PIF were more likely to develop postoperative upper extremity palsy. Attention should be given to the WIF determined on preoperative computed tomography of the C5 root. To prevent iatrogenic foraminal stenosis, appropriate distraction between spine segments should be provided during placement of the rod. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

An Estimate of North Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclone Activity for 2008

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilson, Robert M.

2008-01-01

The statistics of North Atlantic basin tropical cyclones for the interval 1945-2007 are examined and estimates are given for the frequencies of occurrence of the number of tropical cyclones, number of hurricanes, number of major hurricanes, number of category 4/5 hurricanes, and number of U.S. land-falling hurricanes for the 2008 hurricane season. Also examined are the variations of peak wind speed, average peak wind speed per storm, lowest pressure, average lowest pressure per storm, recurrence rate and duration of extreme events (El Nino and La Nina), the variation of 10-yr moving averages of parametric first differences, and the association of decadal averages of frequencies of occurrence of North Atlantic basin tropical cyclones against decadal averages of Armagh Observatory, Northern Ireland, annual mean temperature (found to be extremely important for number of tropical cyclones and number of hurricanes). Because the 2008 hurricane season seems destined to be one that is non-El Nino-related and is a post-1995 season, estimates of the frequencies of occurrence for the various subsets of storms should be above long-term averages.

Changes in extreme temperature and precipitation events in the Loess Plateau (China) during 1960-2013 under global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Wenyi; Mu, Xingmin; Song, Xiaoyan; Wu, Dan; Cheng, Aifang; Qiu, Bing

2016-02-01

In recent decades, extreme climatic events have been a major issue worldwide. Regional assessments on various climates and geographic regions are needed for understanding uncertainties in extreme events' responses to global warming. The objective of this study was to assess the annual and decadal trends in 12 extreme temperature and 10 extreme precipitation indices in terms of intensity, frequency, and duration over the Loess Plateau during 1960-2013. The results indicated that the regionally averaged trends in temperature extremes were consistent with global warming. The occurrence of warm extremes, including summer days (SU), tropical nights (TR), warm days (TX90), and nights (TN90) and a warm spell duration indicator (WSDI), increased by 2.76 (P < 0.01), 1.24 (P < 0.01), 2.60 (P = 0.0003), 3.41 (P < 0.01), and 0.68 (P = 0.0041) days/decade during the period of 1960-2013, particularly, sharp increases in these indices occurred in 1985-2000. Over the same period, the occurrence of cold extremes, including frost days (FD), ice days (ID), cold days (TX10) and nights (TN10), and a cold spell duration indicator (CSDI) exhibited decreases of - 3.22 (P < 0.01), - 2.21 (P = 0.0028), - 2.71 (P = 0.0028), - 4.31 (P < 0.01), and - 0.69 (P = 0.0951) days/decade, respectively. Moreover, extreme warm events in most regions tended to increase while cold indices tended to decrease in the Loess Plateau, but the trend magnitudes of cold extremes were greater than those of warm extremes. The growing season (GSL) in the Loess Plateau was lengthened at a rate of 3.16 days/decade (P < 0.01). Diurnal temperature range (DTR) declined at a rate of - 0.06 °C /decade (P = 0.0931). Regarding the precipitation indices, the annual total precipitation (PRCPTOT) showed no obvious trends (P = 0.7828). The regionally averaged daily rainfall intensity (SDII) exhibited significant decreases (- 0.14 mm/day/decade, P = 0.0158), whereas consecutive dry days (CDD) significantly increased (1.96 days/decade, P = 0.0001) during 1960-2013. Most of stations with significant changes in SDII and CDD occurred in central and southeastern Loess Plateau. However, the changes in days of erosive rainfall, heavy rain, rainstorm, maximum 5-day precipitation, and very-wet-day and extremely wet-day precipitation were not significant. Large-scale atmospheric circulation indices, such as the Western Pacific Subtropical High Intensity Index (WPSHII) and Arctic Oscillation (AO), strongly influences warm/cold extremes and contributes significantly to climate changes in the Loess Plateau. The enhanced geopotential height over the Eurasian continent and increase in water vapor divergence in the rainy season have contributed to the changes of the rapid warming and consecutive drying in the Loess Plateau.

Evaluating the extreme precipitation events using a mesoscale atmopshere model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yucel, I.; Onen, A.

2012-04-01

Evidence is showing that global warming or climate change has a direct influence on changes in precipitation and the hydrological cycle. Extreme weather events such as heavy rainfall and flooding are projected to become much more frequent as climate warms. Mesoscale atmospheric models coupled with land surface models provide efficient forecasts for meteorological events in high lead time and therefore they should be used for flood forecasting and warning issues as they provide more continuous monitoring of precipitation over large areas. This study examines the performance of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model in producing the temporal and spatial characteristics of the number of extreme precipitation events observed in West Black Sea Region of Turkey. Extreme precipitation events usually resulted in flood conditions as an associated hydrologic response of the basin. The performance of the WRF system is further investigated by using the three dimensional variational (3D-VAR) data assimilation scheme within WRF. WRF performance with and without data assimilation at high spatial resolution (4 km) is evaluated by making comparison with gauge precipitation and satellite-estimated rainfall data from Multi Precipitation Estimates (MPE). WRF-derived precipitation showed capabilities in capturing the timing of the precipitation extremes and in some extent spatial distribution and magnitude of the heavy rainfall events. These precipitation characteristics are enhanced with the use of 3D-VAR scheme in WRF system. Data assimilation improved area-averaged precipitation forecasts by 9 percent and at some points there exists quantitative match in precipitation events, which are critical for hydrologic forecast application.

Variable effects of climate on forest growth in relation to climate extremes, disturbance, and forest dynamics.

PubMed

Itter, Malcolm S; Finley, Andrew O; D'Amato, Anthony W; Foster, Jane R; Bradford, John B

2017-06-01

Changes in the frequency, duration, and severity of climate extremes are forecast to occur under global climate change. The impacts of climate extremes on forest productivity and health remain difficult to predict due to potential interactions with disturbance events and forest dynamics-changes in forest stand composition, density, size and age structure over time. Such interactions may lead to non-linear forest growth responses to climate involving thresholds and lag effects. Understanding how forest dynamics influence growth responses to climate is particularly important given stand structure and composition can be modified through management to increase forest resistance and resilience to climate change. To inform such adaptive management, we develop a hierarchical Bayesian state space model in which climate effects on tree growth are allowed to vary over time and in relation to past climate extremes, disturbance events, and forest dynamics. The model is an important step toward integrating disturbance and forest dynamics into predictions of forest growth responses to climate extremes. We apply the model to a dendrochronology data set from forest stands of varying composition, structure, and development stage in northeastern Minnesota that have experienced extreme climate years and forest tent caterpillar defoliation events. Mean forest growth was most sensitive to water balance variables representing climatic water deficit. Forest growth responses to water deficit were partitioned into responses driven by climatic threshold exceedances and interactions with insect defoliation. Forest growth was both resistant and resilient to climate extremes with the majority of forest growth responses occurring after multiple climatic threshold exceedances across seasons and years. Interactions between climate and disturbance were observed in a subset of years with insect defoliation increasing forest growth sensitivity to water availability. Forest growth was particularly sensitive to climate extremes during periods of high stem density following major regeneration events when average inter-tree competition was high. Results suggest the resistance and resilience of forest growth to climate extremes can be increased through management steps such as thinning to reduce competition during early stages of stand development and small-group selection harvests to maintain forest structures characteristic of older, mature stands. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

Variable effects of climate on forest growth in relation to climate extremes, disturbance, and forest dynamics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Itter, Malcolm S.; Finley, Andrew O.; D'Amato, Anthony W.; Foster, Jane R.; Bradford, John B.

2017-01-01

Changes in the frequency, duration, and severity of climate extremes are forecast to occur under global climate change. The impacts of climate extremes on forest productivity and health remain difficult to predict due to potential interactions with disturbance events and forest dynamics—changes in forest stand composition, density, size and age structure over time. Such interactions may lead to non-linear forest growth responses to climate involving thresholds and lag effects. Understanding how forest dynamics influence growth responses to climate is particularly important given stand structure and composition can be modified through management to increase forest resistance and resilience to climate change. To inform such adaptive management, we develop a hierarchical Bayesian state space model in which climate effects on tree growth are allowed to vary over time and in relation to past climate extremes, disturbance events, and forest dynamics. The model is an important step toward integrating disturbance and forest dynamics into predictions of forest growth responses to climate extremes. We apply the model to a dendrochronology data set from forest stands of varying composition, structure, and development stage in northeastern Minnesota that have experienced extreme climate years and forest tent caterpillar defoliation events. Mean forest growth was most sensitive to water balance variables representing climatic water deficit. Forest growth responses to water deficit were partitioned into responses driven by climatic threshold exceedances and interactions with insect defoliation. Forest growth was both resistant and resilient to climate extremes with the majority of forest growth responses occurring after multiple climatic threshold exceedances across seasons and years. Interactions between climate and disturbance were observed in a subset of years with insect defoliation increasing forest growth sensitivity to water availability. Forest growth was particularly sensitive to climate extremes during periods of high stem density following major regeneration events when average inter-tree competition was high. Results suggest the resistance and resilience of forest growth to climate extremes can be increased through management steps such as thinning to reduce competition during early stages of stand development and small-group selection harvests to maintain forest structures characteristic of older, mature stands.

Design of High Efficiency High Power Electron Accelerator Systems Based on Normal Conducting RF Technology for Energy and Environmental Applications

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dolgashev, Valery; Tantawi, Sami

The goal of this project was to perform engineering design studies of three extremely high efficiency electron accelerators with the following parameters [1]: 2 MeV output beam energy and 1 MW average beam power; 10 MeV output energy and 10 MW; 10 MeV output energy and 1 MW. These linacs are intended for energy and environmental applications [2]. We based our designs on normal conducting radio-frequency technology. We have successfully reached this goal where we show rf-to-beam efficiency of 96.7 %, 97.2 %, and 79.6 % for these linacs.

Stress reactivity and personality in extreme sport athletes: The psychobiology of BASE jumpers.

PubMed

Monasterio, Erik; Mei-Dan, Omer; Hackney, Anthony C; Lane, Amy R; Zwir, Igor; Rozsa, Sandor; Cloninger, C Robert

2016-12-01

This is the first report of the psychobiology of stress in BASE jumpers, one of the most dangerous forms of extreme sport. We tested the hypotheses that indicators of emotional style (temperament) predict salivary cortisol reactivity, whereas indicators of intentional goal-setting (persistence and character) predict salivary alpha-amylase reactivity during BASE jumping. Ninety-eight subjects completed the Temperament and Character Inventory (TCI) the day before the jump, and 77 also gave salivary samples at baseline, pre-jump on the bridge over the New River Gorge, and post-jump upon landing. Overall BASE jumpers are highly resilient individuals who are highly self-directed, persistent, and risk-taking, but they are heterogeneous in their motives and stress reactivity in the Hypothalamic-Pituitary-Adrenal (HPA) stress system (cortisol reactivity) and the sympathetic arousal system (alpha-amylase reactivity). Three classes of jumpers were identified using latent class analysis based on their personality profiles, prior jumping experience, and levels of cortisol and alpha-amylase at all three time points. "Masterful" jumpers (class 1) had a strong sense of self-directedness and mastery, extensive prior experience, and had little alpha-amylase reactivity and average cortisol reactivity. "Trustful" jumpers (class 2) were highly cooperative and trustful individuals who had little cortisol reactivity coincident with the social support they experienced prior to jumping. "Courageous" jumpers (class 3) were determined despite anxiety and inexperience, and they had high sympathetic reactivity but average cortisol activation. We conclude that trusting social attachment (Reward Dependence) and not jumping experience predicted low cortisol reactivity, whereas persistence (determination) and not jumping experience predicted high alpha-amylase reactivity. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Hot days induced by precipitation deficits at the global scale

PubMed Central

Mueller, Brigitte; Seneviratne, Sonia I.

2012-01-01

Global warming increases the occurrence probability of hot extremes, and improving the predictability of such events is thus becoming of critical importance. Hot extremes have been shown to be induced by surface moisture deficits in some regions. In this study, we assess whether such a relationship holds at the global scale. We find that wide areas of the world display a strong relationship between the number of hot days in the regions’ hottest month and preceding precipitation deficits. The occurrence probability of an above-average number of hot days is over 70% after precipitation deficits in most parts of South America as well as the Iberian Peninsula and Eastern Australia, and over 60% in most of North America and Eastern Europe, while it is below 30–40% after wet conditions in these regions. Using quantile regression analyses, we show that the impact of precipitation deficits on the number of hot days is asymmetric, i.e. extreme high numbers of hot days are most strongly influenced. This relationship also applies to the 2011 extreme event in Texas. These findings suggest that effects of soil moisture-temperature coupling are geographically more widespread than commonly assumed. PMID:22802672

A preliminary evaluation of nearhore extreme sea level and wave models for fringing reef environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoeke, R. K.; Reyns, J.; O'Grady, J.; Becker, J. M.; Merrifield, M. A.; Roelvink, J. A.

2016-02-01

Oceanic islands are widely perceived as vulnerable to sea level rise and are characterized by steep nearshore topography and fringing reefs. In such settings, near shore dynamics and (non-tidal) water level variability tends to be dominated by wind-wave processes. These processes are highly sensitive to reef morphology and roughness and to regional wave climate. Thus sea level extremes tend to be highly localized and their likelihood can be expected to change in the future (beyond simple extrapolation of sea level rise scenarios): e.g. sea level rise may increase the effective mean depth of reef crests and flats and ocean acidification and/or increased temperatures may lead to changes in reef structure. The problem is sufficiently complex that analytic or numerical approaches are necessary to estimate current hazards and explore potential future changes. In this study, we evaluate the capacity of several analytic/empirical approaches and phase-averaged and phase-resolved numerical models at sites in the insular tropical Pacific. We consider their ability to predict time-averaged wave setup and instantaneous water level exceedance probability (or dynamic wave run-up) as well as computational cost; where possible, we compare the model results with in situ observations from a number of previous studies. Preliminary results indicate analytic approaches are by far the most computationally efficient, but tend to perform poorly when alongshore straight and parallel morphology cannot be assumed. Phase-averaged models tend to perform well with respect to wave setup in such situations, but are unable to predict processes related to individual waves or wave groups, such as infragravity motions or wave run-up. Phase-resolved models tend to perform best, but come at high computational cost, an important consideration when exploring possible future scenarios. A new approach of combining an unstructured computational grid with a quasi-phase averaged approach (i.e. only phase resolving motions below a frequency cutoff) shows promise as a good compromise between computational efficiency and resolving processes such as wave runup and overtopping in more complex bathymetric situations.

Estimation of annual average daily traffic for off-system roads in Florida

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1999-07-28

Estimation of Annual Average Daily Traffic (AADT) is extremely important in traffic planning and operations for the state departments of transportation (DOTs), because AADT provides information for the planning of new road construction, determination...

Ongoing climatic extreme dynamics in Siberia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gordov, E. P.; Shulgina, T. M.; Okladnikov, I. G.; Titov, A. G.

2013-12-01

Ongoing global climate changes accompanied by the restructuring of global processes in the atmosphere and biosphere are strongly pronounced in the Northern Eurasia regions, especially in Siberia. Recent investigations indicate not only large changes in averaged climatic characteristics (Kabanov and Lykosov, 2006, IPCC, 2007; Groisman and Gutman, 2012), but more frequent occurrence and stronger impacts of climatic extremes are reported as well (Bulygina et al., 2007; IPCC, 2012: Climate Extremes, 2012; Oldenborh et al., 2013). This paper provides the results of daily temperature and precipitation extreme dynamics in Siberia for the last three decades (1979 - 2012). Their seasonal dynamics is assessed using 10th and 90th percentile-based threshold indices that characterize frequency, intensity and duration of climatic extremes. To obtain the geographical pattern of these variations with high spatial resolution, the sub-daily temperature data from ECMWF ERA-Interim reanalysis and daily precipitation amounts from APHRODITE JMA dataset were used. All extreme indices and linear trend coefficients have been calculated using web-GIS information-computational platform Climate (http://climate.scert.ru/) developed to support collaborative multidisciplinary investigations of regional climatic changes and their impacts (Gordov et al., 2012). Obtained results show that seasonal dynamics of daily temperature extremes is asymmetric for tails of cold and warm temperature extreme distributions. Namely, the intensity of warming during cold nights is higher than during warm nights, especially at high latitudes of Siberia. The similar dynamics is observed for cold and warm day-time temperatures. Slight summer cooling was observed in the central part of Siberia. It is associated with decrease in warm temperature extremes. In the southern Siberia in winter, we also observe some cooling mostly due to strengthening of the cold temperature extremes. Changes in daily precipitation extremes are spatially inhomogeneous. The largest increase in frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation is observed in the north of East Siberia. Negative trends related to precipitation amount decrease are found in the central West Siberia and in the south of East Siberia. The authors acknowledge partial financial support for this research from the Russian Foundation for Basic Research projects (11-05-01190 and 13-05-12034), SB RAS Integration project 131 and project VIII.80.2.1., the Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation contract 8345 and grant of the President of Russian Federation (decree 181).

Proxy-based reconstruction of erythemal UV doses over Estonia for 1955 2004

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eerme, K.; Veismann, U.; Lätt, S.

2006-08-01

A proxy-based reconstruction of the erythemally-weighted UV doses for 1955-2004 has been performed for the Tartu-Tõravere Meteorological Station (58°16' N, 26°28' E, 70 m a.s.l.) site. The pyrheliometer-measured daily sum of direct irradiance on partly cloudy and clear days, and the pyranometer-measured daily sum of global irradiance on overcast days were used as the cloudiness influence related proxies. The TOMS ozone data have been used for detecting the daily deviations from the climatic value (averaged annual cycle). In 1998-2004, the biases between the measured and reconstructed daily doses in 55.5% of the cases were within ±10% and in 83.5% of the cases within ±20%, on average. In the summer half-year these amounts were 62% and 88%, respectively. In most years the results for longer intervals did not differ significantly, if no correction was made for the daily deviations of total ozone from its climatic value. The annual and summer half-yearly erythemal doses (contributing, on average, 89% of the annual value) agreed within ±2%, except for the years after major volcanic eruptions and one extremely fine weather year (2002). Using the daily relative sunshine duration as a proxy without detailed correction for atmospheric turbidity results in biases of 2-4% in the summer half-yearly dose in the years after major volcanic eruptions and a few other years of high atmospheric turbidity. The year-to-year variations of the summer half-yearly erythemal dose in 1955-2004 were found to be within 92-111% relative to their average value. Exclusion of eight extreme years reduces this range for the remaining to 95-105.5%. Due to the quasi-periodic alternation of wet and dry periods, the interval of cloudy summers 1976-1993 regularly manifests summer half-yearly erythemal dose values lower than the 1955-2004 average. Since 1996/1997 midwinters have been darker than on average.

The effect of future reduction in aerosol emissions on climate extremes in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Zhili; Lin, Lei; Yang, Meilin; Xu, Yangyang

2016-11-01

This study investigates the effect of reduced aerosol emissions on projected temperature and precipitation extremes in China during 2031-2050 and 2081-2100 relative to present-day conditions using the daily data output from the Community Earth System Model ensemble simulations under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 with an applied aerosol reduction and RCP8.5 with fixed 2005 aerosol emissions (RCP8.5_FixA) scenarios. The reduced aerosol emissions of RCP8.5 magnify the warming effect due to greenhouse gases (GHG) and lead to significant increases in temperature extremes, such as the maximum of daily maximum temperature (TXx), minimum of daily minimum temperature (TNn), and tropical nights (TR), and precipitation extremes, such as the maximum 5-day precipitation amount, number of heavy precipitation days, and annual total precipitation from days ˃95th percentile, in China. The projected TXx, TNn, and TR averaged over China increase by 1.2 ± 0.2 °C (4.4 ± 0.2 °C), 1.3 ± 0.2 °C (4.8 ± 0.2 °C), and 8.2 ± 1.2 (30.9 ± 1.4) days, respectively, during 2031-2050 (2081-2100) under the RCP8.5_FixA scenario, whereas the corresponding values are 1.6 ± 0.1 °C (5.3 ± 0.2 °C), 1.8 ± 0.2 °C (5.6 ± 0.2 °C), and 11.9 ± 0.9 (38.4 ± 1.0) days under the RCP8.5 scenario. Nationally averaged increases in all of those extreme precipitation indices above due to the aerosol reduction account for more than 30 % of the extreme precipitation increases under the RCP8.5 scenario. Moreover, the aerosol reduction leads to decreases in frost days and consecutive dry days averaged over China. There are great regional differences in changes of climate extremes caused by the aerosol reduction. When normalized by global mean surface temperature changes, aerosols have larger effects on temperature and precipitation extremes over China than GHG.

Relationship Between South Atlantic Subtropical High and South Atlantic SST Anomalies during Extreme Precipitation Events on Southeast Brazil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pampuch, L.; Ambrizzi, T.

2012-12-01

The Southeast region of Brazil comprises the states of Sao Paulo, Minas Gerais, Rio de Janeiro and Espirito Santo. It occupies 10.85% of Brazilian territory and is highly urbanized. The Southeast Brazil is the biggest geoeconomic region of the country having a strong and diverse economy. Agriculture dominates in all states of the region. The main agricultural products are sugar cane, coffee, cotton, maize, cassava, rice, beans and fruits. Livestock farming is also practiced in the region. The largest herd of cattle is found in the state of Minas Gerais. These activities are highly dependent on the amount and distribution of rainfall. Studies of extreme precipitation events over Brazil have been well emphasized in the literature over the years and their relationship with anomalies of sea surface temperature (SST) in both the Pacific and the Atlantic Ocean have been analyzed. This paper investigates the extreme events occurring in southeastern Brazil from 1982 to 2004 using the technique of quantiles. The composite technique was applied to precipitation, sea level pressure anomaly (SLP) and sea surface temperature anomaly (SST) data in order to investigate the characteristics of rainfall patterns, the position and intensity of South Atlantic subtropical high (SASH) and SST anomalies in the Southern Atlantic Ocean (SAO) in the occurrence of these events and to make a distinction between dry and wet extremes. Analyzing the precipitation patterns, it was noticed that the composition of dry events throughout the Southeast Brazil has negative precipitation anomalies. Particularly, in the southern part of the region there is a large precipitation deficit, having an average of 50mm in the winter months. The composition for the wet events shows that, on average, positive precipitation anomalies with the southern region containing the highest cumulative average, reaching a positive anomaly of 100mm. The composition of SLP in the case of dry events indicates a positive anomaly of pressure on SAO close to the South America continent and a negative anomaly far from the continent. This configuration might represent a southwest movement of the SASH. For the wet events composition is possible to note an opposite configuration: an negative anomaly is seen near the South American continent and a positive one is away of it. Such a configuration may represent a weakening of SASH and a shift to northeast part of the SAO. In the composition of the SST anomalies is possible to note a different pattern for both cases with regard to the tropical Pacific, indicating that in dry years an El Niño pattern is evident and during the wet years a La Niña pattern prevails. On the other hand, for the SAO, colder SST anomalies in the dry years was observed next to the coast of South America, and during the rainy years a positive anomaly was observed away from the continent.

Simulation of Extreme Arctic Cyclones in IPCC AR5 Experiments

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-05-15

atmospheric fields, including sea level pressure ( SLP ), on daily and sub-daily time scales at 2° horizontal resolution. A higher-resolution and more...its 21st-century simulation. Extreme cyclones were defined as occurrences of daily mean SLP at least 40 hPa below the climatological annual-average... SLP at a grid point. As such, no cyclone-tracking algorithm was employed, because the purpose here is to identify instances of extremely strong

GWOT Vascular Injury Study 2 Supplemental Project: Impact of Prophylactic Fasciotomy

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-10-01

total #) 15 10% 5 7% Overall Average 8.27 9.00 Overall Range 8-9 9-9 3 Mangled Extremity Severity Score: The most widely used lower - limb ...trauma, crush, blunt trauma, burns, and fractures . Each of these injuries places the wounded Service members at risk for developing acute extremity... lower extremity vascular injury will be used to determine fasciotomy rates, wound management, and iatrogenic complications. The impact of injury and

Modelling audiovisual integration of affect from videos and music.

PubMed

Gao, Chuanji; Wedell, Douglas H; Kim, Jongwan; Weber, Christine E; Shinkareva, Svetlana V

2018-05-01

Two experiments examined how affective values from visual and auditory modalities are integrated. Experiment 1 paired music and videos drawn from three levels of valence while holding arousal constant. Experiment 2 included a parallel combination of three levels of arousal while holding valence constant. In each experiment, participants rated their affective states after unimodal and multimodal presentations. Experiment 1 revealed a congruency effect in which stimulus combinations of the same extreme valence resulted in more extreme state ratings than component stimuli presented in isolation. An interaction between music and video valence reflected the greater influence of negative affect. Video valence was found to have a significantly greater effect on combined ratings than music valence. The pattern of data was explained by a five parameter differential weight averaging model that attributed greater weight to the visual modality and increased weight with decreasing values of valence. Experiment 2 revealed a congruency effect only for high arousal combinations and no interaction effects. This pattern was explained by a three parameter constant weight averaging model with greater weight for the auditory modality and a very low arousal value for the initial state. These results demonstrate key differences in audiovisual integration between valence and arousal.

Control of heat and humidity in German mines

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Schlotte, W.

1999-07-01

In order to increase the economic efficiency of West European hard coal, great efforts are being made at present in the coal-producing countries to lower production costs. This aim is to be achieved in Germany, among other things, by a drastic increase in the saleable output per working face up to an average of 10,000 t/d in these cases where very long longwall faces (400 m {+-} 50 m) are possible. With the substantially greater heat input into the air stream which this involves, there is the danger that climatic limits will be exceeded even at longwall faces with lowermore » than average rock temperatures. Working in high temperatures and/or humidities can lead to risky lack of concentration of the miners to heat collapse and extremely dangerous heat stroke. In order to minimize the costs for mine climate control well-proven planning software and climitization technology is necessary for underground workings. With the DMT climate simulation programs, both the dry and the extremely significant humid heat transfer can be calculated and the optimum air cooling system for a mine can be designed with due regard to technical and economic aspects.« less

Future frequencies of extreme weather events in the National Wildlife Refuges of the conterminous U.S.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Martinuzzi, Sebastian; Allstadt, Andrew J.; Bateman, Brooke L.; Heglund, Patricia J.; Pidgeon, Anna M.; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Vavrus, Stephen J.; Radeloff, Volker C.

2016-01-01

Climate change is a major challenge for managers of protected areas world-wide, and managers need information about future climate conditions within protected areas. Prior studies of climate change effects in protected areas have largely focused on average climatic conditions. However, extreme weather may have stronger effects on wildlife populations and habitats than changes in averages. Our goal was to quantify future changes in the frequency of extreme heat, drought, and false springs, during the avian breeding season, in 415 National Wildlife Refuges in the conterminous United States. We analyzed spatially detailed data on extreme weather frequencies during the historical period (1950–2005) and under different scenarios of future climate change by mid- and late-21st century. We found that all wildlife refuges will likely experience substantial changes in the frequencies of extreme weather, but the types of projected changes differed among refuges. Extreme heat is projected to increase dramatically in all wildlife refuges, whereas changes in droughts and false springs are projected to increase or decrease on a regional basis. Half of all wildlife refuges are projected to see increases in frequency (> 20% higher than the current rate) in at least two types of weather extremes by mid-century. Wildlife refuges in the Southwest and Pacific Southwest are projected to exhibit the fastest rates of change, and may deserve extra attention. Climate change adaptation strategies in protected areas, such as the U.S. wildlife refuges, may need to seriously consider future changes in extreme weather, including the considerable spatial variation of these changes.

Nonstationarity in timing of extreme precipitation across China and impact of tropical cyclones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gu, Xihui; Zhang, Qiang; Singh, Vijay P.; Shi, Peijun

2017-02-01

This study examines the seasonality and nonstationarity in the timing of extreme precipitation obtained by annual maximum (AM) sampling and peak-over-threshold (POT) sampling techniques using circular statistics. Daily precipitation data from 728 stations with record length of at least 55 years across China were analyzed. In general, the average seasonality is subject mainly to summer season (June-July - August), which is potentially related to East Asian monsoon and Indian monsoon activities. The strength of precipitation seasonality varied across China with the highest strength being in northeast, north, and central-north China; whereas the weakest seasonality was found in southeast China. There are three seasonality types: circular uniform, reflective symmetric, and asymmetric. However, the circular uniform seasonality of extreme precipitation was not detected at stations across China. The asymmetric distribution was observed mainly in southeast China, and the reflective distribution of precipitation extremes was also identified the other regions besides the above-mentioned regions. Furthermore, a strong signal of nonstationarity in the seasonality was detected at half of the weather stations considered in the study, exhibiting a significant shift in the timing of extreme precipitation, and also significant trends in the average and strength of seasonality. Seasonal vapor flux and related delivery pathways and also tropical cyclones (TCs) are most probably the driving factors for the shifts or changes in the seasonality of extreme precipitation across China. Timing of precipitation extremes is closely related to seasonal shifts of floods and droughts and which means much for management of agricultural irrigation and water resources management. This study sheds new light on nonstationarity in timing of precipitation extremes which differs from existing ones which focused on precipitation extremes from perspective of magnitude and intensity.

Wealthier Jews, taller Gentiles: inequality of income and physical stature in fin-de-siècle Hungary.

PubMed

Bolgár, Dániel

2013-12-01

The stereotype of rich Jews versus poor Gentiles does not apply to fin-de-siècle Hungary. Although the average income of Jews was higher than that of Gentiles, the distribution of income among Jews was extremely unequal, far more so than among Christians. Jews were over-represented at the poor end as well as at the rich end of the income spectrum. In four high schools studied the average height of Jewish students was approximately 1cm below that of Gentiles. This height-income discrepancy goes far to explain the divergence in income distribution between the members of the two faiths. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Statistical trend analysis and extreme distribution of significant wave height from 1958 to 1999 - an application to the Italian Seas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martucci, G.; Carniel, S.; Chiggiato, J.; Sclavo, M.; Lionello, P.; Galati, M. B.

2010-06-01

The study is a statistical analysis of sea states timeseries derived using the wave model WAM forced by the ERA-40 dataset in selected areas near the Italian coasts. For the period 1 January 1958 to 31 December 1999 the analysis yields: (i) the existence of a negative trend in the annual- and winter-averaged sea state heights; (ii) the existence of a turning-point in late 80's in the annual-averaged trend of sea state heights at a site in the Northern Adriatic Sea; (iii) the overall absence of a significant trend in the annual-averaged mean durations of sea states over thresholds; (iv) the assessment of the extreme values on a time-scale of thousand years. The analysis uses two methods to obtain samples of extremes from the independent sea states: the r-largest annual maxima and the peak-over-threshold. The two methods show statistical differences in retrieving the return values and more generally in describing the significant wave field. The r-largest annual maxima method provides more reliable predictions of the extreme values especially for small return periods (<100 years). Finally, the study statistically proves the existence of decadal negative trends in the significant wave heights and by this it conveys useful information on the wave climatology of the Italian seas during the second half of the 20th century.

Hydrocentric view of Agro-ecosystem Resiliency to Extreme Hydrometeorological and Climate Events in the High Plains, US.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Munoz-Arriola, Francisco; Sharma, Ashutosh; Werner, Katherine; Chacon, Juan-Carlos; Corzo, Gerald; Goyal, Manish-Kumar

2017-04-01

An increasing incidence of Hydrometeorological and Climate Extreme Events (EHCEs) is challenging food, water, and ecosystem services security at local to global contexts. This study aims to understand how a large-scale representation of agroecosystems and ecosystems respond to EHCE in the Northern Highplains, US. To track such responses the Variable Infiltration Capacity model (VIC) Land Surface Hydrology model was used and two experiments were implemented. The first experiment uses the LAI MODIS15A2 product to capture dynamic responses of vegetation with a time span from 2000 to 2013. The second experiment used a climatological fixed seasonal cycle calculated as the average from the 2000-2013 dynamic MODIS15A2 product to isolate vegetation from soil physical responses. Based on the analyses of multiple hydrological variables and state variables and high-level organization of agroecosystems and ecosystems, we evidence how the influence of droughts and anomalously wet conditions affect hydrological resilience at large scale.

Patterns of change in high frequency precipitation variability over North America.

PubMed

Roque-Malo, Susana; Kumar, Praveen

2017-09-18

Precipitation variability encompasses attributes associated with the sequencing and duration of events of the full range of magnitudes. However, climate change studies have largely focused on extreme events. Using analyses of long-term weather station data, we show that high frequency events, such as fraction of wet days in a year and average duration of wet and dry periods, are undergoing significant changes across North America. Further, these changes are more prevalent and larger than those associated with extremes. Such trends also exist for events of a range of magnitudes. Existence of localized clusters with opposing trend to that of broader geographic variation illustrates the role of microclimate and other drivers of trends. Such hitherto unknown patterns over the entire North American continent have the potential to significantly inform our characterization of the resilience and vulnerability of a broad range of ecosystems and agricultural and socio-economic systems. They can also set new benchmarks for climate model assessments.

Chapter 12: Sea Level Rise

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sweet, W. V.; Horton, R.; Kopp, R. E.; LeGrande, A. N.; Romanou, A.

2017-01-01

Global mean sea level (GMSL) has risen by about 7-8 inches (about 16-21 cm) since 1900, with about 3 of those inches (about 7 cm) occurring since 1993. Human-caused climate change has made a substantial contribution to GMSL rise since 1900, contributing to a rate of rise that is greater than during any preceding century in at least 2,800 years. Relative to the year 2000, GMSL is very likely to rise by 0.3-0.6 feet (9-18 cm) by 2030, 0.5-1.2 feet (15-38 cm) by 2050, and 1.0-4.3 feet (30-130 cm) by 2100. Future pathways have little effect on projected GMSL rise in the first half of the century, but significantly affect projections for the second half of the century. Emerging science regarding Antarctic ice sheet stability suggests that, for high emission scenarios, a GMSL rise exceeding 8 feet (2.4 m) by 2100 is physically possible, although the probability of such an extreme outcome cannot currently be assessed. Regardless of pathway, it is extremely likely that GMSL rise will continue beyond 2100. Relative sea level (RSL) rise in this century will vary along U.S. coastlines due, in part, to changes in Earth's gravitational field and rotation from melting of land ice, changes in ocean circulation, and vertical land motion (very high confidence). For almost all future GMSL rise scenarios, RSL rise is likely to be greater than the global average in the U.S. Northeast and the western Gulf of Mexico. In intermediate and low GMSL rise scenarios, RSL rise is likely to be less than the global average in much of the Pacific Northwest and Alaska. For high GMSL rise scenarios, RSL rise is likely to be higher than the global average along all U.S. coastlines outside Alaska. Almost all U.S. coastlines experience more than global mean sea level rise in response to Antarctic ice loss, and thus would be particularly affected under extreme GMSL rise scenarios involving substantial Antarctic mass loss. As sea levels have risen, the number of tidal floods each year that cause minor impacts (also called "nuisance floods") have increased 5- to 10-fold since the 1960s in several U.S. coastal cities. Rates of increase are accelerating in over 25 Atlantic and Gulf Coast cities. Tidal flooding will continue increasing in depth, frequency, and extent this century. Assuming storm characteristics do not change, sea level rise will increase the frequency and extent of extreme flooding associated with coastal storms, such as hurricanes and nor'easters. A projected increase in the intensity of hurricanes in the North Atlantic could increase the probability of extreme flooding along most of the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf Coast states beyond what would be projected based solely on RSL rise. However, there is low confidence in the projected increase in frequency of intense Atlantic hurricanes, and the associated flood risk amplification and flood effects could be offset or amplified by such factors as changes in overall storm frequency or tracks.

Spatial variability of extreme rainfall at radar subpixel scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peleg, Nadav; Marra, Francesco; Fatichi, Simone; Paschalis, Athanasios; Molnar, Peter; Burlando, Paolo

2018-01-01

Extreme rainfall is quantified in engineering practice using Intensity-Duration-Frequency curves (IDF) that are traditionally derived from rain-gauges and more recently also from remote sensing instruments, such as weather radars. These instruments measure rainfall at different spatial scales: rain-gauge samples rainfall at the point scale while weather radar averages precipitation on a relatively large area, generally around 1 km2. As such, a radar derived IDF curve is representative of the mean areal rainfall over a given radar pixel and neglects the within-pixel rainfall variability. In this study, we quantify subpixel variability of extreme rainfall by using a novel space-time rainfall generator (STREAP model) that downscales in space the rainfall within a given radar pixel. The study was conducted using a unique radar data record (23 years) and a very dense rain-gauge network in the Eastern Mediterranean area (northern Israel). Radar-IDF curves, together with an ensemble of point-based IDF curves representing the radar subpixel extreme rainfall variability, were developed fitting Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distributions to annual rainfall maxima. It was found that the mean areal extreme rainfall derived from the radar underestimate most of the extreme values computed for point locations within the radar pixel (on average, ∼70%). The subpixel variability of rainfall extreme was found to increase with longer return periods and shorter durations (e.g. from a maximum variability of 10% for a return period of 2 years and a duration of 4 h to 30% for 50 years return period and 20 min duration). For the longer return periods, a considerable enhancement of extreme rainfall variability was found when stochastic (natural) climate variability was taken into account. Bounding the range of the subpixel extreme rainfall derived from radar-IDF can be of major importance for different applications that require very local estimates of rainfall extremes.

Pluridirectional High-Energy Agile Scanning Electron Radiotherapy (PHASER): Extremely Rapid Treatment for Early Lung Cancer

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-09-01

used to simulate 50- 150MeV VHEE beam dose deposition and its effects on steel and titanium (Ti) heterogeneities in a water phantom. Heterogeneities of...and water with segmented prostheses ( steel and Ti) geometries with 100MeV and 150MeV beams. Results: 100MeV PDD 5cm behind steel /Ti heterogeneity...in steel and 18% in Ti heterogeneities. The dose immediately behind steel heterogeneity decreased by an average of 6%, although for 150MeV, the

How much might additional half a degree from a global warming of 1.5°C affects the extreme precipitation change in China?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, W.; Jiang, Z.

2017-12-01

In order to strengthen the global respond to the dangerous of global warming, Paris Agreement sets out two long-term warming goals: limiting global warming to well below 2˚C and purse effort to below 1.5˚C above pre-industrial levels. However, future climate change risks in those two warming targets show significant regional differences. This article aims to study the intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation change over China under those two global warming targets by using CMIP5 models under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenario. Focus is put on the effects of the additional half degree in changing the extreme precipitation. Results show that the changes of extreme precipitation are independent of the RCP scenarios when global warming reaches the same threshold. Intensity of extreme precipitation averaged over China increase by around 6% and 11% when global warming reaches 1.5˚C and 2˚C, respectively. The additional half a degree increase makes the intensity of extreme precipitation averaged over China to increase by 4.5%, which translates to an increase close to the Clausius-Clapeyron scaling. Return period decreases by 5 years for the extra half degree warming when the 20-year return values are considered at the reference level.

The near-term prediction of drought and flooding conditions in the northeastern United States based on extreme phases of AMO and NAO

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berton, Rouzbeh; Driscoll, Charles T.; Adamowski, Jan F.

2017-10-01

A series of hydroclimatic teleconnection patterns were identified between variations in either Atlantic or Pacific oceanic indices with precipitation and discharge anomalies in the northeastern United States. We hypothesized that temporal annual or seasonal changes in discharge could be explained by variations in extreme phases of the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO index, SST: Sea Surface Temperature anomalies) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO index, SLP: Sea-Level Pressure anomalies) up to three seasons in advance. The Merrimack River watershed, the fourth largest basin in New England, with a drainage area of 13,000 km2, is a compelling study site because it not only provides an opportunity to investigate the teleconnection between hydrologic variables and large-scale climate circulation patterns, but also how those patterns may become obscured by anthropogenic disturbances such as river regulation or urban development. We considered precipitation and discharge data of 21 gauging stations within the Merrimack River watershed, including the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest (HBEF), NH, with a median record length of 55 years beginning as early as 1904. The discharge anomalies were statistically significant (p-value ≤ 0.2) between extreme positive and negative phases of AMO (1857-2011) and NAO (1900-2011) and revealed the potential teleconnectivity of climate circulation patterns with discharge. Annual and seasonal correlations of discharge were examined with the extreme phases of AMO and NAO at zero-, one-, or two- year/season lags (total of 30 scenarios). When AMO was greater than 0.2, the strongest correlations of AMO and NAO with discharge were observed at headwater catchments. This correlation weakened downstream towards larger regulated and/or developed sub-basins. We introduced a simple approach for near-term prediction of drought and flooding events. An exponential decay function was regressed through the historic occurrence of the relative frequency of wet, average, and dry discharge conditions with regards to the extreme phases of AMO and NAO. While the function was decaying, the tail asymptotically merged into and stabilized at the theoretical probability of the event. As the basin scale increased, the probability of wet, average, and dry discharge conditions decreased. The Merrimack River watershed will most likely experience greater than average discharge as its extreme condition, therefore development should be avoided on flood plains. Furthermore, the current reservoir storage capacity in the Merrimack should be improved in order to accommodate excess water input and minimize flood damage. Future research should target changes in the magnitude and timing of high discharge events in order to develop adaptation strategies for aging hydraulic infrastructure in the region.

Climate extremes in urban area and their impact on human health: the summer heat waves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baldi, Marina

2014-05-01

In the period 1951-2012 the average global land and ocean temperature has increased by approximately 0.72°C [0.49-0.89] when described by a linear trend, and is projected to rapidly increase. Each of the past three decades has been warmer than all the previous decades, with the decade of the 2000's as the warmest, and, since 1880, nine of the ten warmest years are in the 21st century, the only exception being 1998, which was warmed by the strongest El Niño event of the past century. In parallel an increase in the frequency and intensity of extremely hot days is detected with differences at different scales, which represent an health risk specially in largely populated areas as documented for several regions in the world including the Euro-Mediterranean region. If it is still under discussion if heat wave episodes are a direct result of the warming of the lower troposphere, or if, more likely, they are a regional climate event, however heat episodes have been studied in order to define their correlation with large scale atmospheric patterns and with changes in the regional circulation. Whatever the causes and the spatio-temporal extension of the episodes, epidemiological studies show that these conditions pose increasing health risks inducing heat-related diseases including hyperthermia and heat stress, cardiovascular and respiratory illnesses in susceptible individuals with a significant increase in morbidity and mortality especially in densely populated urban areas. In several Mediterranean cities peaks of mortality associated with extremely high temperature (with simultaneous high humidity levels) have been documented showing that, in some cases, a large increase in daily mortality has been reached compared to the average for the period. The number of fatalities during the summer 2003 heat wave in Europe was estimated to largely exceed the average value of some between 22000 and 50000 cases. In the same summer it was also unusually hot across much of Asia, and Shanghai, which is particularly prone to heat waves, recorded the hottest summer in over 50 years. During the event, the maximum number of daily deaths was 317, 42% above the non-heat day average, even though an heat warning system in operation. In this study results from the analysis of heat waves events in Italian cities is presented. Indices representative of extremely hot conditions have been taken into account and results of the analysis of indices such as the number of summer days (SU), number of tropical nights (TR), maxima and minima of daily maximum and minimum temperatures (TXx, TXn, TNx, TNn, respectively), exceedances over fixed thresholds is presented. Results show a clear increase in the past decades of the numbers of days affected by heat events. Some considerations are also presented about the impact on human health of the longest events occurred in the Country.

Attribution of extreme rainfall from Hurricane Harvey, August 2017

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van der Wiel, K.; van Oldenborgh, G. J.; Sebastian, A.; Singh, R.; Arrighi, J.; Otto, F. E. L.; Haustein, K.; Li, S.; Vecchi, G.; Cullen, H. M.

2017-12-01

During August 25-30, 2017, Hurricane Harvey stalled over Texas and caused extreme precipitation over Houston and the surrounding area, particularly on August 26-28. This resulted in extensive flooding with over 80 fatalities and large economic costs. Using observational datasets and high-resolution global climate model experiments we investigate the return period of this event and to what extent anthropogenic climate change influenced the likelihood and intensity of this type of events. The event definition for the attribution is set by the main impact, flooding in the city of Houston. Most rivers crested on August 28 or 29, driven by intensive rainfall on August 26-28. We therefore use the annual maximum of three-day average precipitation as the event definition. Station data (GHCN-D) and a gridded precipitation product (CPC unified analysis) are used to find the return period of the event and changes in the observed record. To attribute changes to anthropogenic climate change we use time-slice experiments from two high-resolution global climate models (EC-Earth 2.3 and GFDL HiFLOR, both integrated at approximately 25 km). A regional model (HadRM3P) was rejected because of unrealistic modelled extremes. Finally we put the attribution results in context, given local vulnerability and exposure.

Space Radiation Effects in Advanced Flash Memories

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johnston, A. H.

2001-01-01

Memory storage requirements in space systems have steadily increased, much like storage requirements in terrestrial systems. Large arrays of dynamic memories (DRAMs) have been used in solid-state recorders, relying on a combination of shielding and error-detection-and correction (EDAC) to overcome the extreme sensitivity of DRAMs to space radiation. For example, a 2-Gbit memory (with 4-Mb DRAMs) used on the Clementine mission functioned perfectly during its moon mapping mission, in spite of an average of 71 memory bit flips per day from heavy ions. Although EDAC worked well with older types of memory circuits, newer DRAMs use extremely complex internal architectures which has made it increasingly difficult to implement EDAC. Some newer DRAMs have also exhibited catastrophic latchup. Flash memories are an intriguing alternative to DRAMs because of their nonvolatile storage and extremely high storage density, particularly for applications where writing is done relatively infrequently. This paper discusses radiation effects in advanced flash memories, including general observations on scaling and architecture as well as the specific experience obtained at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory in evaluating high-density flash memories for use on the NASA mission to Europa, one of Jupiter's moons. This particular mission must pass through the Jovian radiation belts, which imposes a very demanding radiation requirement.

Spatio-Temporal Changes In Non-Extreme Precipitation Variability Over North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roque, S.

2016-12-01

Precipitation variability encompasses attributes associated with the sequencing and duration of events of the full range of magnitudes. However, climate change studies have largely focused on extreme events. Using analyses of long-term weather station data we show that high frequency events, such as fraction of wet days in a year and average duration of wet and dry periods, are undergoing significant changes across North America. The median increase in fraction of wet days in a year indicates that in 2010, North America experienced an additional 11 days of precipitation compared to 1960 (when the median number of wet days was 96), and wet periods that were 0.14 days longer than those in 1960 (when the median was 1.78 days). Further, these changes in high-frequency precipitation are more prevalent and larger than those associated with extremes. Such trends also exist for events of a range of magnitudes. Results reveal the existence of localized clusters with opposing trends to that of broader geographic variation, which illustrates the role of microclimate and other drivers of trends. Such hitherto unknown patterns have the potential to significantly inform our characterization of the resilience and vulnerability of a broad range of ecosystems, and agricultural and socio-economic systems. They can also set new benchmarks for climate model assessments.

Women live longer than men even during severe famines and epidemics.

PubMed

Zarulli, Virginia; Barthold Jones, Julia A; Oksuzyan, Anna; Lindahl-Jacobsen, Rune; Christensen, Kaare; Vaupel, James W

2018-01-23

Women in almost all modern populations live longer than men. Research to date provides evidence for both biological and social factors influencing this gender gap. Conditions when both men and women experience extremely high levels of mortality risk are unexplored sources of information. We investigate the survival of both sexes in seven populations under extreme conditions from famines, epidemics, and slavery. Women survived better than men: In all populations, they had lower mortality across almost all ages, and, with the exception of one slave population, they lived longer on average than men. Gender differences in infant mortality contributed the most to the gender gap in life expectancy, indicating that newborn girls were able to survive extreme mortality hazards better than newborn boys. Our results confirm the ubiquity of a female survival advantage even when mortality is extraordinarily high. The hypothesis that the survival advantage of women has fundamental biological underpinnings is supported by the fact that under very harsh conditions females survive better than males even at infant ages when behavioral and social differences may be minimal or favor males. Our findings also indicate that the female advantage differs across environments and is modulated by social factors. Copyright © 2018 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.

Participation and interest in support services among family caregivers of older adults with cancer.

PubMed

Dionne-Odom, J Nicholas; Applebaum, Allison J; Ornstein, Katherine A; Azuero, Andres; Warren, Paula P; Taylor, Richard A; Rocque, Gabrielle B; Kvale, Elizabeth A; Demark-Wahnefried, Wendy; Pisu, Maria; Partridge, Edward E; Martin, Michelle Y; Bakitas, Marie A

2018-03-01

The purpose of this study was to describe distressed and underprepared family caregiver's use of and interest in formal support services (eg, professional counseling, education, organizational assistance). Cross-sectional mail survey conducted in communities of 8 cancer centers in Tennessee, Alabama, and Florida (response rate: 42%). Family caregivers of Medicare beneficiaries with pancreatic, lung, brain, ovarian, head and neck, hematologic, and stage IV cancers reported support service use and completed validated measures of depression, anxiety, burden, preparedness, and health. Caregivers (n = 294) were on average age 65 years and mostly female (73%), White (91%), and care recipients' spouse/partner (60%); patients averaged 75 years were majority male (54%) with lung cancer (39%). Thirty-two percent of caregivers reported accessing services while 28% were "mostly" or "extremely" interested. Thirty-five percent of caregivers with high depressive symptoms (n = 122), 33% with high anxiety symptoms (n = 100), and 25% of those in the lowest quartile of preparedness (n = 77) accessed services. Thirty-eight percent of those with high depressive symptoms, 47% with high anxiety symptoms, and 36% in the lowest quartile of preparedness were "mostly" or "extremely" interested in receiving services. Being interested in support services was significantly associated with being a minority, shorter durations of caregiving, and with higher stress burden. A large proportion of family caregivers, including those experiencing depression and anxiety symptoms and who were underprepared, are not using formal support services but have a strong interest in services. Strategies to increase service use may include targeting distressed caregivers early in their caregiving experience. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Glomerular hypertrophy in subjects with low nephron number: contributions of sex, body size and race.

PubMed

Puelles, Victor G; Douglas-Denton, Rebecca N; Zimanyi, Monika A; Armitage, James A; Hughson, Michael D; Kerr, Peter G; Bertram, John F

2014-09-01

We have shown that low nephron number (Nglom) is a strong determinant of individual glomerular volume (IGV) in male Americans. However, whether the same pattern is present in female Americans remains unclear. The contributions of body surface area (BSA) and race to IGV in the context of Nglom also require further evaluation. Kidneys without overt renal disease were collected at autopsy in Mississippi, USA. The extremes of female Nglom were used to define high and low Nglom for both sexes. Nglom and IGV were estimated by design-based stereology. A total of 24 African and Caucasian American females (n = 12 per race; 6 per Nglom extreme) were included. These subjects were subsequently matched to 24 comparable males by age and Nglom and to 18 additional males by age, Nglom and BSA. IGV average and variance were very similar in female African and Caucasian Americans with high and low Nglom. Males with low Nglom from both races showed greater IGV average and variance than comparable females matched by age and Nglom. These differences in IGV between sexes were not observed in Caucasian Americans with low Nglom that were matched by age, Nglom and BSA. In contrast, glomeruli from African Americans were larger than those from Caucasian Americans, especially in subjects with high Nglom. While female Americans with low Nglom did not show glomerular hypertrophy, comparable males with low Nglom showed marked glomerular hypertrophy that was closely associated with high BSA. Glomerular size in African Americans may be confounded by multiple additional factors. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of ERA-EDTA. All rights reserved.

Roles of prices, poverty, and health in Medicare and private spending in Texas.

PubMed

White, Chapin; Taychakhoonavudh, Suthira; Parikh, Rohan; Franzini, Luisa

2015-05-01

To investigate the roles of prices, poverty, and health in divergences between Medicare and private spending in Texas. Retrospective observational design using 2011 Blue Cross Blue Shield of Texas claims data and publicly available Medicare data. We measured market-level spending per enrollee among the privately insured. Variation in Medicare and private spending per person are decomposed into prices and quantities, and their associations with poverty are measured. Markets are divided into 4 groups and are compared based on the ratio of Medicare to private spending: "high-private," "proportional," "high-Medicare," and "extremely high-Medicare." Among the privately insured, poverty appears to have large spillover effects; it is strongly associated with lower prices, quantities, and spending. Among Medicare beneficiaries, health status is a key driver of spending variation. The 2 markets with extremely high Medicare-to-private spending ratios (Harlingen and McAllen) are predominantly Hispanic communities with markedly higher rates of poverty and lack of insurance and also extremely low physician supply. The markets with relatively high private spending stand out for having good health-system performance and health outcomes, and higher than average hospital prices. Variation in private spending appears to reflect the ability of the local population to pay for healthcare, whereas variation in Medicare is more heavily driven by health status, and presumably, by clinical need. These findings highlight the inadvisability of using Medicare spending as a proxy for systemwide spending, and the need for comprehensive market-level spending data that allow comparisons among populations with different sources of insurance coverage.

Projected Changes in Persistent Extreme Warm-Season Weather Events: The Role of Quasi-Resonant Amplification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mann, M. E.; Rahmstorf, S.; Kornhuber, K.; Steinman, B. A.; Miller, S. K.; Coumou, D.

2017-12-01

Persistent episodes of extreme weather in the Northern Hemisphere summer are typically associated with high-amplitude quasi-stationary atmospheric Rossby waves with zonal wavenumbers. Such disturbances are favoured by the phenomenon of Quasi-Resonant Amplification (QRA). A fingerprint for the occurrence of QRA can be defined in terms of the zonally-averaged surface temperature field. Examining future state-of-the-art (CMIP5) climate model projections we find that such events are likely to increase by 50% over the next century under business-as-usual carbon emissions, but there is considerable variation among climate models, with some models predicting a near tripling of QRA events by the end of the century. These results are strongly dependent on assumptions regarding the prominence of changes in radiative forcing associated with anthropogenic aerosols over the next century.

Warmer and wetter winters: characteristics and implications of an extreme weather event in the High Arctic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hansen, Brage B.; Isaksen, Ketil; Benestad, Rasmus E.; Kohler, Jack; Pedersen, Åshild Ø.; Loe, Leif E.; Coulson, Stephen J.; Larsen, Jan Otto; Varpe, Øystein

2014-11-01

One predicted consequence of global warming is an increased frequency of extreme weather events, such as heat waves, droughts, or heavy rainfalls. In parts of the Arctic, extreme warm spells and heavy rain-on-snow (ROS) events in winter are already more frequent. How these weather events impact snow-pack and permafrost characteristics is rarely documented empirically, and the implications for wildlife and society are hence far from understood. Here we characterize and document the effects of an extreme warm spell and ROS event that occurred in High Arctic Svalbard in January-February 2012, during the polar night. In this normally cold semi-desert environment, we recorded above-zero temperatures (up to 7 °C) across the entire archipelago and record-breaking precipitation, with up to 98 mm rainfall in one day (return period of >500 years prior to this event) and 272 mm over the two-week long warm spell. These precipitation amounts are equivalent to 25 and 70% respectively of the mean annual total precipitation. The extreme event caused significant increase in permafrost temperatures down to at least 5 m depth, induced slush avalanches with resultant damage to infrastructure, and left a significant ground-ice cover (˜5-20 cm thick basal ice). The ground-ice not only affected inhabitants by closing roads and airports as well as reducing mobility and thereby tourism income, but it also led to high starvation-induced mortality in all monitored populations of the wild reindeer by blocking access to the winter food source. Based on empirical-statistical downscaling of global climate models run under the moderate RCP4.5 emission scenario, we predict strong future warming with average mid-winter temperatures even approaching 0 °C, suggesting increased frequency of ROS. This will have far-reaching implications for Arctic ecosystems and societies through the changes in snow-pack and permafrost properties.

Future changes of precipitation characteristics in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, S.; Wu, Y.; Wen, J.

2017-12-01

Global warming has the potential to alter the hydrological cycle, with significant impacts on the human society, the environment and ecosystems. This study provides a detailed assessment of potential changes in precipitation characteristics in China using a suite of 12 high-resolution CMIP5 climate models under a medium and a high Representative Concentration Pathways: RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. We examine future changes over the entire distribution of precipitation, and identify any shift in the shape and/or scale of the distribution. In addition, we use extreme-value theory to evaluate the change in probability and magnitude for extreme precipitation events. Overall, China is going to experience an increase in total precipitation (by 8% under RCP4.5 and 12% under RCP8.5). This increase is uneven spatially, with more increase in the west and less increase in the east. Precipitation frequency is projected to increase in the west and decrease in the east. Under RCP4.5, the overall precipitation frequency for the entire China remains largely unchanged (0.08%). However, RCP8.5 projects a more significant decrease in frequency for large part of China, resulting in an overall decrease of 2.08%. Precipitation intensity is likely increase more uniformly, with an overall increase of 11% for RCP4.5 and 19% for RCP8.5. Precipitation increases for all parts of the distribution, but the increase is more for higher quantiles, i.e. strong events. The relative contribution of small quantiles is likely to decrease, whereas contribution from heavy events is likely to increase. Extreme precipitation increase at much higher rates than average precipitation, and high rates of increase are expected for more extreme events. 1-year events are likely to increase by 15%, but 20-year events are going to increase by 21% under RCP4.5, 26% and 40% respectively under RCP8.5. The increase of extreme events is likely to be more spatially uniform.

Climate-change driven increase in high intensity rainfall events: Analysis of development in the last decades and towards an extrapolation of future progression

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Müller, Eva; Pfister, Angela; Gerd, Büger; Maik, Heistermann; Bronstert, Axel

2015-04-01

Hydrological extreme events can be triggered by rainfall on different spatiotemporal scales: river floods are typically caused by event durations of between hours and days, while urban flash floods as well as soil erosion or contaminant transport rather result from storms events of very short duration (minutes). Still, the analysis of climate change impacts on rainfall-induced extreme events is usually carried out using daily precipitation data at best. Trend analyses of extreme rainfall at sub-daily or even sub-hourly time scales are rare. In this contribution two lines of research are combined: first, we analyse sub-hourly rainfall data for several decades in three European regions.Second, we investigate the scaling behaviour of heavy short-term precipitation with temperature, i.e. the dependence of high intensity rainfall on the atmospheric temperature at that particular time and location. The trend analysis of high-resolution rainfall data shows for the first time that the frequency of short and intensive storm events in the temperate lowland regions in Germany has increased by up to 0.5 events per year over the last decades. I.e. this trend suggests that the occurrence of these types of storms have multiplied over only a few decades. Parallel to the changes in the rainfall regime, increases in the annual and seasonal average temperature and changes in the occurrence of circulation patterns responsible for the generation of high-intensity storms have been found. The analysis of temporally highly resolved rainfall records from three European regions further indicates that extreme precipitation events are more intense with warmer temperatures during the rainfall event. These observations follow partly the Clausius-Clapeyron relation. Based on this relation one may derive a general rule of maximum rainfall intensity associated to the event temperature, roughly following the Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) relation. This rule might be used for scenarios of future maximum rainfall intensities under a warming climate.

Pre-chirp managed nonlinear amplification in fibers delivering 100  W, 60  fs pulses.

PubMed

Liu, Wei; Schimpf, Damian N; Eidam, Tino; Limpert, Jens; Tünnermann, Andreas; Kärtner, Franz X; Chang, Guoqing

2015-01-15

We demonstrate a pre-chirp managed Yb-doped fiber laser system that outputs 75 MHz, 130 W spectrally broadened pulses, which are compressed by a diffraction-grating pair to 60 fs with average powers as high as 100 W. Fine tuning the pulse chirp prior to amplification leads to high-quality compressed pulses. Detailed experiments and numerical simulation reveal that the optimum pre-chirp group-delay dispersion increases from negative to positive with increasing output power for rod-type high-power fiber amplifiers. The resulting laser parameters are suitable for extreme nonlinear optics applications such as frequency conversion in femtosecond enhancement cavities.

High spatial resolution time-resolved magnetic resonance angiography of lower extremity tumors at 3T

PubMed Central

Wu, Gang; Jin, Teng; Li, Ting; Morelli, John; Li, Xiaoming

2016-01-01

Abstract The aim of this study was to compare diagnostic value of high spatial resolution time-resolved magnetic resonance angiography with interleaved stochastic trajectory (TWIST) using Gadobutrol to Computed tomography angiography (CTA) for preoperative evaluation of lower extremity tumors. This prospective study was approved by the institutional review board. Fifty consecutive patients (31 men, 19 women, age range 18–80 years, average age 42.7 years) with lower extremity tumors underwent TWIST magnetic resonance angiography (MRA) and CTA. Digital subtraction angiography was available for 8 patients. Image quality of MRA was compared with CTA by 2 radiologists according to a 4-point Likert scale. Arterial involvement by tumor was compared using kappa test between MRA and CTA. The ability to identify feeding arteries and arterio-venous fistulae (AVF) was compared using Wilcoxon signed rank test and McNemar test, respectively. Image quality of MRA and CTA was rated without a statistically significant difference (3.88 ± 0.37 vs. 3.97 ± 0.16, P = 0.135). Intramodality agreement was high for the identification of arterial invasion (kappa = 0.806 ± 0.073 for Reader 1, kappa = 0.805 ± 0.073 for Reader 2). Readers found AVF in 27 of 50 MRA cases and 14 of 50 CTA cases (P < 0.001). Mean feeding arteries identified with MRA were significantly more than that with CTA (2.08 ± 1.72 vs. 1.62 ± 1.52, P = .02). TWIST MRA is a reliable imaging modality for the assessment of lower extremity tumors. TWIST MRA is comparable to CTA for the identification of AVF and feeding arteries. PMID:27631262

Complex regional pain syndrome type I in the upper extremity - how efficient physical therapy and rehabilitation are.

PubMed

Zečević Luković, Tanja; Ristić, Branko; Jovanović, Zorica; Rančić, Nemanja; Ignjatović Ristić, Dragana; Cuković, Saša

2012-08-01

To evaluate the effects of early started combined therapy in Complex Regional Pain Syndrome-1 (CRPS-1) on the upper extremities. The study included 36 patients in the first stadium of CRPS-1 on the upper extremities The mean age of patients was 42.6±14.6, the majority of them (26 of 36) were females. The right side of the upper extremity was affected much more then the left side. They were treated by combined therapy including analgetics, electrotherapy, magneto therapy and kinesitherapy. The average length of observation was 172.1 days (from 90 to 250 days). The average length of treatment was 91.5±42.16 days. Intensity of pain, swelling of the extremity, the change in skin coloration and cutaneous manifestations were assessed three times, at the beginning of the treatment, after 6 weeks and at the end of the treatment. The pain was registered in all patients at visit 1 (average pain intensity was 5.70 ±1.44 on 100 mm visual analogue scale), and it was progressively decreased during the treatment from 3.60±1.22 at the second visit to 0.34±0.68 at the third visit. Vasodilatation was registered in 30 (83.33%) patients and skin temperature asymmetries was found in 21 (58.33%) patients. The difference of size was detected in 30 (83.33%) patients at the first visit compared to four (11.11%) patients at the end of the treatment. There were six (16.66%) patients without swelling at the beginning compared to 26 (72.22%) at the end of the treatment (p less than 0.000). Complete healing was achieved in 32 patients (88.88%). The carefully chosen physical agents in combination with analgesic and non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs may benefit in patients with CRPS-1 on the upper extremity if the treatment starts as soon as possible.

Subtropical air masses over eastern Canada: Their links to extreme precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gyakum, John; Wood, Alice; Milrad, Shawn; Atallah, Eyad

2017-04-01

We investigate extremely warm, moist air masses with an analysis of 850-hPa equivalent potential temperature (θe) extremes at Montreal, Quebec. The utility of using this metric is that it represents the thermodynamic property of air that ascends during a precipitation event. We produce an analysis of the 40 most extreme cases of positive θe, 10 for each season, based upon standardized anomalies from the 33-year climatology. The analysis shows the cases to be characterized by air masses with distinct subtropical traits for all seasons: reduced static stability, anomalously high precipitable water, and anomalously elevated dynamic tropopause heights. Persistent, slow moving upper- and lower-level features were essential in the build up of high- θe air encompassing much of eastern Canada. The trajectory analysis also showed anticyclonic curvature to all paths in all seasons, implying that the subtropical anticyclone is crucial in the transport of high- θe air. These atmospheric rivers during the winter are characterized by trajectories from the subtropical North Atlantic, and over the Gulf Stream current, northward into Montreal. In contrast, the summer anticyclonic trajectories are primarily continental, traveling from Texas north-northeastward into the Great Lakes, and then eastward into Montreal. The role of the air mass in modulating the strength of a precipitation event is addressed with an analysis of the expression, P = RD, where P is the total precipitation, and R is the precipitation rate, averaged through the duration, D, of the event. Though appearing simple, this expression includes R, (assumed to be same as condensation, with an efficiency of 1), which may be expressed as the product of vertical motion and the change of saturation mixing ratio following a moist adiabat, through the troposphere. This expression for R includes the essential ingredients of lift, air mass temperature, and static stability (implicit in vertical motion). We use this expression for precipitation rate to study the extreme precipitation events in Montreal that are associated with these same cases of extreme warm, moist air masses, and their physical impacts on the precipitation rate. Implications of this air mass modulation on precipitation rate are discussed in the context of longer-term global climate change.

Speed ratio but cabin temperature positively correlated with increased heart rates among professional drivers during car races.

PubMed

Yanagida, Ryo; Takahashi, Kiichi; Miura, Masaru; Nomura, Masahiro; Ogawa, Yojiro; Aoki, Ken; Iwasaki, Ken-Ichi

2016-11-01

The present study measures heart rate (HR) on a number of professional race-car drivers during actual car races through annual seasons to test hypotheses that faster relative speed and higher cabin temperature would induce higher HR. Heart rates in fifteen male drivers (31.2 ± 5.5 years old) were obtained by chest-strap sensors during official-professional 13 races. Average HR was calculated while the driver was racing from the start to the end of each race. The average HR during races was 164.5 ± 15.1 beats min -1 and the average amount of time each driver spent driving per race was 54.2 ± 13.7 min. Average HR significantly and positively correlated with mean speed ratio (P < 0.001), but not with the average cabin temperatures (P = 0.533, range 25.6-41.8 °C) by the multiple linear regression analysis. Both average HR and mean speed ratio were significantly lower under wet, than dry conditions (151.9 ± 16.5 vs. 168.3 ± 12.5 beats min -1 , 86.9 ± 4.4 vs. 93.4 ± 1.5 %). The cardiovascular system of drivers is considerably stressed at extremely high HR. This high average HR positively correlated with mean speed ratio, suggesting that faster driving speed would induce greater cardiovascular stress to professional drivers during actual races. However, contrary to our hypothesis, cabin temperature was not significantly correlated with average HR. It is speculated that direct body cooling systems used in this professional race category work well against increases in HR by thermal stress under the temperature range found herein.

Injuries among powered two-wheeler users in eight European countries: a descriptive analysis of hospital discharge data.

PubMed

Forman, Jason L; Lopez-Valdes, Francisco J; Pollack, Keshia; Heredero-Ordoyo, Rafael; Molinero, Aquilino; Mansilla, Alberto; Fildes, Brian; Segui-Gomez, Maria

2012-11-01

Powered two-wheelers (PTWs--mopeds, motorcycles, and scooters) remain the most dangerous form of travel on today's roads. This study used hospital discharge data from eight European countries to examine the frequencies and patterns of injury among PTW users (age≥14 years), the predicted incidence of the loss of functional ability, and the mechanisms of the head injuries observed (all in light of increased helmet use). Of 977,557 injured patients discharged in 2004, 12,994 were identified as having been injured in PTW collisions. Lower extremity injuries accounted for 26% (25.6-26.7, 95% C.I.) of the total injuries, followed by upper extremity injuries (20.7%: 20.3-21.2), traumatic brain injuries (TBI) (18.5%: 18-19), and thoracic injuries (8.2%: 7.8-8.5). Approximately 80% of the lower extremity injury cases were expected to exhibit some functional disability one year following discharge (predicted Functional Capacity Index, pFCI-AIS98<100), compared to 47% of the upper extremity injury cases and 24% of the TBI cases. Although it occurred less frequently, patients that were expected to experience some functional limitation from TBI were predicted to fair worse on average (lose more functional ability) than patients expected to have functional limitations from extremity injuries. Cerebral concussion was the most common head injury observed (occurring in 56% of head injury cases), with most concussion cases (78%) exhibiting no other head injury. Among the AIS3+ head injuries that could be mapped to an injury mechanism, 48% of these were associated with a translational-impact mechanism, and 37% were associated with a rotational mechanism. The observation of high rates of expected long-term disability suggests that future efforts aim to mitigate lower and upper extremity injuries among PTW users. Likewise, the high rates of concussion and head injuries associated with a rotational mechanism provide goals for the next phase of PTW user head protection. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Temporal development of extreme precipitation in Germany projected by EURO-CORDEX simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brendel, Christoph; Deutschländer, Thomas

2017-04-01

A sustainable operation of transport infrastructure requires an enhanced resilience to the increasing impacts of climate change and related extreme meteorological events. To meet this challenge, the German Federal Ministry of Transport and Digital Infrastructure (BMVI) commenced a comprehensive national research program on safe and sustainable transport in Germany. A network of departmental research institutes addresses the "Adaptation of the German transport infrastructure towards climate change and extreme events". Various studies already have identified an increase in the average global precipitation for the 20th century. There is some indication that these increases are most visible in a rising frequency of precipitation extremes. However, the changes are highly variable between regions and seasons. With a further increase of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations in the 21st century, the likelihood of occurrence of such extreme events will continue to rise. A kernel estimator has been used in order to obtain a robust estimate of the temporal development of extreme precipitation events projected by an ensemble of EURO-CORDEX simulations. The kernel estimator measures the intensity of the poisson point process indicating temporal changes in the frequency of extreme events. Extreme precipitation events were selected using the peaks over threshold (POT) method with the 90th, 95th and 99th quantile of daily precipitation sums as thresholds. Application of this non-parametric approach with relative thresholds renders the use of a bias correction non-mandatory. In addition, in comparison to fitting an extreme value theory (EVT) distribution, the method is completely unsusceptible to outliers. First results show an overall increase of extreme precipitation events for Germany until the end of the 21st century. However, major differences between seasons, quantiles and the three different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5) have been identified. For instance, the frequency of extreme precipitation events more than triples in the most extreme scenario. Regional differences are rather small with the largest increase in northern Germany, particularly in coastal regions and the weakest increase in the most southern parts of Germany.

Optimal ventilatory patterns in periodic breathing.

PubMed

Ghazanshahi, S D; Khoo, M C

1993-01-01

The goal of this study was to determine whether periodic breathing (PB), which is highly prevalent during sleep at high altitudes, imposes physiological penalties on the respiratory system in the absence of any accompanying disease. Using a computer model of respiratory gas exchange, we compared the effects of a variety of PB patterns on the chemical and mechanical costs of breathing to those resulting from regular tidal breathing. Although PB produced considerable fluctuation in arterial blood gas tensions, for the same cycle-averaged ventilation, higher arterial oxygen saturation and lower arterial carbon dioxide levels were achieved. This result can be explained by the fact that the combination of large breaths and apnea in PB leads to a substantial reduction in dead space ventilation. At the same time, the savings in mechanical cost achieved by the respiratory muscles during apnea partially offset the increase during the breathing phase. Consequently, the "pressure cost," a criterion based on mean inspiratory pressure, was elevated only slightly, although the average work rate of breathing increased significantly. We found that, at extreme altitudes, PB patterns with clusters of 2 to 4 large breaths that alternate with apnea produce the highest arterial oxygenation levels and lowest pressure costs. The common occurrence of PB patterns with closely similar features has been reported in sleeping healthy sojourners at extreme altitudes. Taken together, these findings suggest that PB favors a reduction in the oxygen demands of the respiratory muscles and therefore may not be as detrimental as it is generally believed to be.

Skillful prediction of hot temperature extremes over the source region of ancient Silk Road.

PubMed

Zhang, Jingyong; Yang, Zhanmei; Wu, Lingyun

2018-04-27

The source region of ancient Silk Road (SRASR) in China, a region of around 150 million people, faces a rapidly increased risk of extreme heat in summer. In this study, we develop statistical models to predict summer hot temperature extremes over the SRASR based on a timescale decomposition approach. Results show that after removing the linear trends, the inter-annual components of summer hot days and heatwaves over the SRASR are significantly related with those of spring soil temperature over Central Asia and sea surface temperature over Northwest Atlantic while their inter-decadal components are closely linked to those of spring East Pacific/North Pacific pattern and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation for 1979-2016. The physical processes involved are also discussed. Leave-one-out cross-validation for detrended 1979-2016 time series indicates that the statistical models based on identified spring predictors can predict 47% and 57% of the total variances of summer hot days and heatwaves averaged over the SRASR, respectively. When the linear trends are put back, the prediction skills increase substantially to 64% and 70%. Hindcast experiments for 2012-2016 show high skills in predicting spatial patterns of hot temperature extremes over the SRASR. The statistical models proposed herein can be easily applied to operational seasonal forecasting.

Double Exposure and the Climate Gap: Changing demographics and extreme heat in Ciudad Juárez, Mexico

PubMed Central

Collins, Timothy W.; McDonald, Yolanda J.; Aldouri, Raed; Aboargob, Faraj; Eldeb, Abdelatif; Aguilar, María de Lourdes Romo; Velázquez-Angulo, Juárez Gilberto

2013-01-01

Scholars have recognized a climate gap, wherein poor communities face disproportionate impacts of climate change. Others have noted that climate change and economic globalization may mutually affect a region or social group, leading to double exposure. This paper investigates how current and changing patterns of neighborhood demographics are associated with extreme heat in the border city of Juárez, Mexico. Many Juárez neighborhoods are at-risk to triple exposures, in which residents suffer due to the conjoined effects of the global recession, drug war violence, and extreme heat. Due to impacts of the recession on maquiladora employment and the explosion of drug violence (since 2008), over 75% of neighborhoods experienced decreasing population density between 2000 and 2010 and the average neighborhood saw a 40% increase in the proportion of older adults. Neighborhoods with greater drops in population density and increases in the proportion of older residents over the decade are at significantly higher risk to extreme heat, as are neighborhoods with lower population density and lower levels of education. In this context, triple exposures are associated with a climate gap that most endangers lower socioeconomic status and increasingly older aged populations remaining in neighborhoods from which high proportions of residents have departed. PMID:25642135

Double Exposure and the Climate Gap: Changing demographics and extreme heat in Ciudad Juárez, Mexico.

PubMed

Grineski, Sara E; Collins, Timothy W; McDonald, Yolanda J; Aldouri, Raed; Aboargob, Faraj; Eldeb, Abdelatif; Aguilar, María de Lourdes Romo; Velázquez-Angulo, Juárez Gilberto

2015-02-01

Scholars have recognized a climate gap, wherein poor communities face disproportionate impacts of climate change. Others have noted that climate change and economic globalization may mutually affect a region or social group, leading to double exposure. This paper investigates how current and changing patterns of neighborhood demographics are associated with extreme heat in the border city of Juárez, Mexico. Many Juárez neighborhoods are at-risk to triple exposures, in which residents suffer due to the conjoined effects of the global recession, drug war violence, and extreme heat. Due to impacts of the recession on maquiladora employment and the explosion of drug violence (since 2008), over 75% of neighborhoods experienced decreasing population density between 2000 and 2010 and the average neighborhood saw a 40% increase in the proportion of older adults. Neighborhoods with greater drops in population density and increases in the proportion of older residents over the decade are at significantly higher risk to extreme heat, as are neighborhoods with lower population density and lower levels of education. In this context, triple exposures are associated with a climate gap that most endangers lower socioeconomic status and increasingly older aged populations remaining in neighborhoods from which high proportions of residents have departed.

Rainfall extremes from TRMM data and the Metastatistical Extreme Value Distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zorzetto, Enrico; Marani, Marco

2017-04-01

A reliable quantification of the probability of weather extremes occurrence is essential for designing resilient water infrastructures and hazard mitigation measures. However, it is increasingly clear that the presence of inter-annual climatic fluctuations determines a substantial long-term variability in the frequency of occurrence of extreme events. This circumstance questions the foundation of the traditional extreme value theory, hinged on stationary Poisson processes or on asymptotic assumptions to derive the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution. We illustrate here, with application to daily rainfall, a new approach to extreme value analysis, the Metastatistical Extreme Value Distribution (MEVD). The MEVD relaxes the above assumptions and is based on the whole distribution of daily rainfall events, thus allowing optimal use of all available observations. Using a global dataset of rain gauge observations, we show that the MEVD significantly outperforms the Generalized Extreme Value distribution, particularly for long average recurrence intervals and when small samples are available. The latter property suggests MEVD to be particularly suited for applications to satellite rainfall estimates, which only cover two decades, thus making extreme value estimation extremely challenging. Here we apply MEVD to the TRMM TMPA 3B42 product, an 18-year dataset of remotely-sensed daily rainfall providing a quasi-global coverage. Our analyses yield a global scale mapping of daily rainfall extremes and of their distributional tail properties, bridging the existing large gaps in ground-based networks. Finally, we illustrate how our global-scale analysis can provide insight into how properties of local rainfall regimes affect tail estimation uncertainty when using the GEV or MEVD approach. We find a dependence of the estimation uncertainty, for both the GEV- and MEV-based approaches, on the average annual number and on the inter-annual variability of rainy days. In particular, estimation uncertainty decreases 1) as the mean annual number of wet days increases, and 2) as the variability in the number of rainy days, expressed by its coefficient of variation, decreases. We tentatively explain this behavior in terms of the assumptions underlying the two approaches.

Climate Factors Contributing to Streamflow Inputs and Extreme Water-level Deviations from Long-term Averages for Lakes Superior and Michigan-Huron

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anderson, M. T.; Stamm, J. F.

2014-12-01

The Great Lakes are a highly valued freshwater resource of the United States and Canada. The Lakes are the focus of a science-based restoration program, known as the Great Lakes Restoration Initiative (GLRI). Physical and chemical factors, such as inflows and nutrient loads to the Great Lakes can affect ecosystem function, contribute to the spread of invasive species and increase the occurrence of harmful algal blooms. Since about 1999, water levels in Lakes Superior and Michigan-Huron have been at or below the long-term average (1918 to present). Analyses of streamflow trends for the period 1960 to 2012 in watersheds draining into Lakes Superior and Michigan-Huron showed a long-term decline in average inflows, which helps to explain the persistently below-average lake levels. Recent climatic conditions of October 2013 to August 2014 have contributed to a rapid rise in lake levels, most notably in Lake Superior. Lake Superior recently reached an elevation of 602.56 feet above sea level in August 2014, which is the highest level in 17 years. Coincident with this recovery was the development of a large algal bloom in Lake Erie in August of 2014 that shut down the Toledo, Ohio municipal water supply. These anomalous, extreme deviations from long-term average lake levels will be examined to better understand the forcing factors that contributed to changes in inflow volumes and lake-levels. Particular focus will be given to the climatology of years when changes in lake levels are most pronounced, such as; the measured lake-level declines during 1964-1965 and 1998-2000; and lake-level rises during 1973-1974, 1987-1989, and 2013-2014. The climatology of years with periods of algal blooms will also be examined such as, 2003, 2008, 2011 and 2014.

Simulation of Extreme Arctic Cyclones in IPCC AR5 Experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vavrus, S. J.

2012-12-01

Although impending Arctic climate change is widely recognized, a wild card in its expression is how extreme weather events in this region will respond to greenhouse warming. Intense polar cyclones represent one type of high-latitude phenomena falling into this category, including very deep synoptic-scale cyclones and mesoscale polar lows. These systems inflict damage through high winds, heavy precipitation, and wave action along coastlines, and their impact is expected to expand in the future, when reduced sea ice cover allows enhanced wave energy. The loss of a buffering ice pack could greatly increase the rate of coastal erosion, which has already been increasing in the Arctic. These and related threats may amplify if extreme Arctic cyclones become more frequent and/or intense in a warming climate with much more open water to fuel them. This possibility has merit on the basis of GCM experiments, which project that greenhouse forcing causes lower mean sea level pressure (SLP) in the Arctic and a strengthening of the deepest storms over boreal high latitudes. In this study, the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) climate model output is used to investigate the following questions: (1) What are the spatial and seasonal characteristics of extreme Arctic cyclones? (2) How well do GCMs simulate these phenomena? (3) Are Arctic cyclones already showing the expected response to greenhouse warming in climate models? To address these questions, a retrospective analysis is conducted of the transient 20th century simulations among the CMIP5 GCMs (spanning years 1850-2005). The results demonstrate that GCMs are able to reasonably represent extreme Arctic cyclones and that the simulated characteristics do not depend significantly on model resolution. Consistent with observational evidence, climate models generate these storms primarily during winter and within the climatological Aleutian and Icelandic Low regions. Occasionally the cyclones remain very intense over the Arctic Ocean. The historical tendency in Arctic SLP varies considerably among the GCMs, but the intermodel average trend exhibits a lowering of mean-annual pressure over the Arctic during the past 150 years and an increase in extreme cyclones in the vicinity of the Aleutian and Icelandic Lows. However, only weak trends in extreme cyclones are simulated through 2005 over the Arctic Ocean, where simulations of future climate change produce the largest SLP falls.

Characterization of Extreme Deposition of Air Pollutants in MT. Mitchell State Park: Potential for Forest Decline and Opportunity for Cloud Deacidification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Defelice, Thomas Peter

The decline of forests has long been attributed to various natural (e.g. drought), man-made (e.g. logging), and perhaps, combinations of these (eg. fires caused by loggers) causes. A new type of forest decline (attributed to the deposition of air pollutants and other natural causes) has become apparent at high elevation sites in western Europe and North America; especially for above cloudbase forests like those in the Mt. Mitchell State Park. Investigations of air pollutant deposition are plentiful and laboratory studies have shown extreme deposition of these pollutants to be potentially harmful to forests. However, no field study has concentrated on these events. The primary objective of this study is to characterize (i.e., meterologically, microphysically, chemically) extreme episodes of air pollutant deposition. This study defines extreme aqueous events as having a pH < 3.1. pH's of this order are known to reduce laboratory tree growth depending on their age and species. On the average, one out of three aqueous events, sampled in the park during the 1986-1988 growing seasons (mid-May through mid-September), was extreme. Their occurrence over time may lead to the death of infant and 'old' trees, and to the reduced vigor of trees in their prime, as a result of triggering the decline mechanisms of these trees. These events usually last ~ 4.0 h, form during extended periods of high atmospheric pressure, have a liquid water content of ~ 0.10 gm^{-3}, and near typical cloud droplet sizes (~ 8.0 μm). Extreme aqueous events deposit most of their acid at their end. The deposition from the infrequent occurrences of very high ozone ( >=q100 ppb) and sulfur dioxide (>=q 5 ppb) concentrations in conjunction with these cloud events may be even more detrimental to the canopy, then that by extreme aqueous events alone. The physical characteristics of these combined events appear to include those of mature, precipitating clouds. Their occurrence may provide a clue as to how very low pH clouds might be deacidified. That is, base gases (eg. ammonia) locally introduced into such clouds at the proper time may render them harmless upon impact with the forest canopy, and beneficial to regional water supply users.

High-Performance Sensors Based on Resistance Fluctuations of Single-Layer-Graphene Transistors.

PubMed

Amin, Kazi Rafsanjani; Bid, Aveek

2015-09-09

One of the most interesting predicted applications of graphene-monolayer-based devices is as high-quality sensors. In this article, we show, through systematic experiments, a chemical vapor sensor based on the measurement of low-frequency resistance fluctuations of single-layer-graphene field-effect-transistor devices. The sensor has extremely high sensitivity, very high specificity, high fidelity, and fast response times. The performance of the device using this scheme of measurement (which uses resistance fluctuations as the detection parameter) is more than 2 orders of magnitude better than a detection scheme in which changes in the average value of the resistance is monitored. We propose a number-density-fluctuation-based model to explain the superior characteristics of a noise-measurement-based detection scheme presented in this article.

Effects of climate change on streamflow extremes and implications for reservoir inflow in the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Naz, Bibi S.; Kao, Shih-Chieh; Ashfaq, Moetasim; Gao, Huilin; Rastogi, Deeksha; Gangrade, Sudershan

2018-01-01

The magnitude and frequency of hydrometeorological extremes are expected to increase in the conterminous United States (CONUS) over the rest of this century, and their increase will significantly impact water resource management. In this study, we evaluated the large-scale climate change effects on extreme hydrological events and their implications for reservoir inflows in 138 headwater subbasins located upstream of reservoirs across CONUS using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model. The VIC model was forced with a 10-member ensemble of global circulation models under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 that were dynamically downscaled using a regional climate model (RegCM4) and bias-corrected to 1/24° grid cell resolution. Four commonly used indices, including mean annual flow, annual center timing, 100-year daily high streamflow, and 10-year 7-day average low streamflow were used for evaluation. The results projected an increase in the high streamflow by 44% for a majority of subbasins upstream of flood control reservoirs in the central United States (US) and a decrease in the low streamflow by 11% for subbasins upstream of hydropower reservoirs across the western US. In the eastern US, frequencies of both high and low streamflow were projected to increase in the majority of subbasins upstream of both hydropower and flood control reservoirs. Increased frequencies of both high and low streamflow events can potentially make reservoirs across CONUS more vulnerable to future climate conditions. This study estimates reservoir inflow changes over the next several decades, which can be used to optimize water supply management downstream.

Weight loss practices of college wrestlers.

PubMed

Oppliger, Robert A; Steen, Suzanne A Nelson; Scott, James R

2003-03-01

The purpose of this investigation was to examine the weight management (WM) behaviors of collegiate wrestlers after the implementation of the NCAA's new weight control rules. In the fall of 1999, a survey was distributed to 47 college wrestling teams stratified by collegiate division (i.e., I, II, III) and competitive quality. Forty-three teams returned surveys for a total of 741 responses. Comparisons were made using the collegiate division, weight class, and the wrestler's competitive winning percentage. The most weight lost during the season was 5.3 kg +/- 2.8 kg (mean +/- SD) or 6.9% +/- 4.7% of the wrestler's weight; weekly weight lost averaged 2.9 kg +/- 1.3 kg or 4.3% +/- 2.3% of the wrestler's weight; post-season, the average wrestler regained 5.5 kg +/- 3.6 kg or 8.6% +/- 5.4% of their weight. Coaches and fellow wrestlers were the primary influence on weight loss methods; however, 40.2% indicated that the new NCAA rules deterred extreme weight loss behaviors. The primary methods of weight loss reported were gradual dieting (79.4%) and increased exercise (75.2%). However, 54.8% fasted, 27.6% used saunas, and 26.7% used rubber/plastic suits at least once a month. Cathartics and vomiting were seldom used to lose weight, and only 5 met three or more of the criteria for bulimia nervosa. WM behaviors were more extreme among freshmen, lighter weight classes, and Division II wrestlers. Compared to previous surveys of high school wrestlers, this cohort of wrestlers reported more extreme WM behaviors. However, compared to college wrestlers in the 1980s, weight loss behaviors were less extreme. The WM practices of college wrestlers appeared to have improved compared to wrestlers sampled previously. Forty percent of the wrestlers were influenced by the new NCAA rules and curbed their weight loss practices. Education is still needed, as some wrestlers are still engaging in dangerous WM methods.

Forecasting seasonal hydrologic response in major river basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhuiyan, A. M.

2014-05-01

Seasonal precipitation variation due to natural climate variation influences stream flow and the apparent frequency and severity of extreme hydrological conditions such as flood and drought. To study hydrologic response and understand the occurrence of extreme hydrological events, the relevant forcing variables must be identified. This study attempts to assess and quantify the historical occurrence and context of extreme hydrologic flow events and quantify the relation between relevant climate variables. Once identified, the flow data and climate variables are evaluated to identify the primary relationship indicators of hydrologic extreme event occurrence. Existing studies focus on developing basin-scale forecasting techniques based on climate anomalies in El Nino/La Nina episodes linked to global climate. Building on earlier work, the goal of this research is to quantify variations in historical river flows at seasonal temporal-scale, and regional to continental spatial-scale. The work identifies and quantifies runoff variability of major river basins and correlates flow with environmental forcing variables such as El Nino, La Nina, sunspot cycle. These variables are expected to be the primary external natural indicators of inter-annual and inter-seasonal patterns of regional precipitation and river flow. Relations between continental-scale hydrologic flows and external climate variables are evaluated through direct correlations in a seasonal context with environmental phenomenon such as sun spot numbers (SSN), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Methods including stochastic time series analysis and artificial neural networks are developed to represent the seasonal variability evident in the historical records of river flows. River flows are categorized into low, average and high flow levels to evaluate and simulate flow variations under associated climate variable variations. Results demonstrated not any particular method is suited to represent scenarios leading to extreme flow conditions. For selected flow scenarios, the persistence model performance may be comparable to more complex multivariate approaches, and complex methods did not always improve flow estimation. Overall model performance indicates inclusion of river flows and forcing variables on average improve model extreme event forecasting skills. As a means to further refine the flow estimation, an ensemble forecast method is implemented to provide a likelihood-based indication of expected river flow magnitude and variability. Results indicate seasonal flow variations are well-captured in the ensemble range, therefore the ensemble approach can often prove efficient in estimating extreme river flow conditions. The discriminant prediction approach, a probabilistic measure to forecast streamflow, is also adopted to derive model performance. Results show the efficiency of the method in terms of representing uncertainties in the forecasts.

Personality Factors in the Long Life Family Study

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Objectives. To evaluate personality profiles of Long Life Family Study participants relative to population norms and offspring of centenarians from the New England Centenarian Study. Method. Personality domains of agreeableness, conscientiousness, extraversion, neuroticism, and openness were assessed with the NEO Five-Factor Inventory in 4,937 participants from the Long Life Family Study (mean age 70 years). A linear mixed model of age and gender was implemented adjusting for other covariates. Results. A significant age trend was found in all five personality domains. On average, the offspring generation of long-lived families scored low in neuroticism, high in extraversion, and within average values for the other three domains. Older participants tended to score higher in neuroticism and lower in the other domains compared with younger participants, but the estimated scores generally remained within average population values. No significant differences were found between long-lived family members and their spouses. Discussion. Personality factors and more specifically low neuroticism and high extraversion may be important for achieving extreme old age. In addition, personality scores of family members were not significantly different from those of their spouses, suggesting that environmental factors may play a significant role in addition to genetic factors. PMID:23275497

Occurrence of Harmful Cyanobacteria in Drinking Water from a Severely Drought-Impacted Semi-arid Region

PubMed Central

Walter, Juline M.; Lopes, Fabyano A. C.; Lopes-Ferreira, Mônica; Vidal, Lívia M.; Leomil, Luciana; Melo, Fabiana; de Azevedo, Girlene S.; Oliveira, Rossandra M. S.; Medeiros, Alba J.; Melo, Adriana S. O.; De Rezende, Carlos E.; Tanuri, Amilcar; Thompson, Fabiano L.

2018-01-01

Harmful cyanobacterial blooms have become increasingly common in freshwater ecosystems in recent decades, mainly due to eutrophication and climate change. Water becomes unreliable for human consumption. Here, we report a comprehensive study carried out to investigate the water quality of several Campina Grande reservoirs. Our approach included metagenomics, microbial abundance quantification, ELISA test for three cyanotoxins (microcystin, nodularins, and cylindrospermopsin), and in vivo ecotoxicological tests with zebrafish embryos. Cytometry analysis showed high cyanobacterial abundance, while metagenomics identified an average of 10.6% of cyanobacterial sequences, and demonstrated the presence of Microcystis, Cylindrospermopsis, and toxin coding genes in all ponds. Zebrafish embryos reared with pond water had high mortality and diverse malformations. Among the ponds analyzed, Araçagi showed the highest lethality (an average of 62.9 ± 0.8%), followed by Boqueirão (lethality average of 62.5 ± 0.8%). Here, we demonstrate that water from ponds undergoing extremely drought conditions have an abundance of potentially harmful cyanobacteria and their toxins. Our findings are consistent with a scenario in which polluted drinking water poses a great risk to human health. PMID:29541063

The Joint Statistics of California Temperature and Precipitation as a Function of the Large-scale State of the Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

OBrien, J. P.; O'Brien, T. A.

2015-12-01

Single climatic extremes have a strong and disproportionate effect on society and the natural environment. However, the joint occurrence of two or more concurrent extremes has the potential to negatively impact these areas of life in ways far greater than any single event could. California, USA, home to nearly 40 million people and the largest agricultural producer in the United States, is currently experiencing an extreme drought, which has persisted for several years. While drought is commonly thought of in terms of only precipitation deficits, above average temperatures co-occurring with precipitation deficits greatly exacerbate drought conditions. The 2014 calendar year in California was characterized both by extremely low precipitation and extremely high temperatures, which has significantly deepened the already extreme drought conditions leading to severe water shortages and wildfires. While many studies have shown the statistics of 2014 temperature and precipitation anomalies as outliers, none have demonstrated a connection with large-scale, long-term climate trends, which would provide useful relationships for predicting the future trajectory of California climate and water resources. We focus on understanding non-stationarity in the joint distribution of California temperature and precipitation anomalies in terms of large-scale, low-frequency trends in climate such as global mean temperature rise and oscillatory indices such as ENSO and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation among others. We consider temperature and precipitation data from the seven distinct climate divisions in California and employ a novel, high-fidelity kernel density estimation method to directly infer the multivariate distribution of temperature and precipitation anomalies conditioned on the large-scale state of the climate. We show that the joint distributions and associated statistics of temperature and precipitation are non-stationary and vary regionally in California. Further, we show that recurrence intervals of extreme concurrent events vary as a function of time and of teleconnections. This research has implications for predicting and forecasting future temperature and precipitation anomalies, which is critically important for city, water, and agricultural planning in California.

Extreme sea levels on the rise along Europe's coasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vousdoukas, Michalis I.; Mentaschi, Lorenzo; Voukouvalas, Evangelos; Verlaan, Martin; Feyen, Luc

2017-03-01

Future extreme sea levels (ESLs) and flood risk along European coasts will be strongly impacted by global warming. Yet, comprehensive projections of ESL that include mean sea level (MSL), tides, waves, and storm surges do not exist. Here, we show changes in all components of ESLs until 2100 in view of climate change. We find that by the end of this century, the 100-year ESL along Europe's coastlines is on average projected to increase by 57 cm for Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP)4.5 and 81 cm for RCP8.5. The North Sea region is projected to face the highest increase in ESLs, amounting to nearly 1 m under RCP8.5 by 2100, followed by the Baltic Sea and Atlantic coasts of the UK and Ireland. Relative sea level rise (RSLR) is shown to be the main driver of the projected rise in ESL, with increasing dominance toward the end of the century and for the high-concentration pathway. Changes in storm surges and waves enhance the effects of RSLR along the majority of northern European coasts, locally with contributions up to 40%. In southern Europe, episodic extreme events tend to stay stable, except along the Portuguese coast and the Gulf of Cadiz where reductions in surge and wave extremes offset RSLR by 20-30%. By the end of this century, 5 million Europeans currently under threat of a 100-year ESL could be annually at risk from coastal flooding under high-end warming. The presented dataset is available through this link: http://data.jrc.ec.europa.eu/collection/LISCOAST.

Sex-typicality and attractiveness: are supermale and superfemale faces super-attractive?

PubMed

Rhodes, G; Hickford, C; Jeffery, L

2000-02-01

Many animals find extreme versions of secondary sexual characteristics attractive, and such preferences can enhance reproductive success (Andersson, 1994). We hypothesized, therefore, that extreme versions of sex-typical traits may be attractive in human faces. We created supermale and superfemale faces by exaggerating all spatial differences between an average male and an average female face. In Expt 1 the male average was preferred to a supermale (50% exaggeration of differences from the female average). There was no clear preference for the female average or the superfemale (50% exaggeration). In Expt 2, participants chose the most attractive face from sets of images containing feminized as well as masculinized images for each sex, and spanning a wider range of exaggeration levels than in Expt 1. Chinese sets were also shown, to see whether similar preferences would occur for a less familiar race (participants were Caucasian). The most attractive female image was significantly feminized for faces of both races. However, the most attractive male image for both races was also significantly feminized. These results indicate that feminization, rather than sex exaggeration per se, is attractive in human faces, and they corroborate similar findings by Perrett et al. (1998).

Interpreting the Climatic Effects on Xylem Functional Traits in Two Mediterranean Oak Species: The Role of Extreme Climatic Events.

PubMed

Rita, Angelo; Borghetti, Marco; Todaro, Luigi; Saracino, Antonio

2016-01-01

In the Mediterranean region, the widely predicted rise in temperature, change in the precipitation pattern, and increase in the frequency of extreme climatic events are expected to alter the shape of ecological communities and to affect plant physiological processes that regulate ecosystem functioning. Although change in the mean values are important, there is increasing evidence that plant distribution, survival, and productivity respond to extremes rather than to the average climatic condition. The present study aims to assess the effects of both mean and extreme climatic conditions on radial growth and functional anatomical traits using long-term tree-ring time series of two co-existing Quercus spp. from a drought-prone site in Southern Italy. In particular, this is the first attempt to apply the Generalized Additive Model for Location, Scale, and Shape (GAMLSS) technique and Bayesian modeling procedures to xylem traits data set, with the aim of (i) detecting non-linear long-term responses to climate and (ii) exploring relationships between climate extreme and xylem traits variability in terms of probability of occurrence. This study demonstrates the usefulness of long-term xylem trait chronologies as records of environmental conditions at annual resolution. Statistical analyses revealed that most of the variability in tree-ring width and specific hydraulic conductivity might be explained by cambial age. Additionally, results highlighted appreciable relationships between xylem traits and climate variability more than tree-ring width, supporting also the evidence that the plant hydraulic traits are closely linked to local climate extremes rather than average climatic conditions. We reported that the probability of extreme departure in specific hydraulic conductivity (Ks) rises at extreme values of Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). Therefore, changing frequency or intensity of extreme events might overcome the adaptive limits of vascular transport, resulting in substantial reduction of hydraulic functionality and, hence increased incidence of xylem dysfunctions.

Interpreting the Climatic Effects on Xylem Functional Traits in Two Mediterranean Oak Species: The Role of Extreme Climatic Events

PubMed Central

Rita, Angelo; Borghetti, Marco; Todaro, Luigi; Saracino, Antonio

2016-01-01

In the Mediterranean region, the widely predicted rise in temperature, change in the precipitation pattern, and increase in the frequency of extreme climatic events are expected to alter the shape of ecological communities and to affect plant physiological processes that regulate ecosystem functioning. Although change in the mean values are important, there is increasing evidence that plant distribution, survival, and productivity respond to extremes rather than to the average climatic condition. The present study aims to assess the effects of both mean and extreme climatic conditions on radial growth and functional anatomical traits using long-term tree-ring time series of two co-existing Quercus spp. from a drought-prone site in Southern Italy. In particular, this is the first attempt to apply the Generalized Additive Model for Location, Scale, and Shape (GAMLSS) technique and Bayesian modeling procedures to xylem traits data set, with the aim of (i) detecting non-linear long-term responses to climate and (ii) exploring relationships between climate extreme and xylem traits variability in terms of probability of occurrence. This study demonstrates the usefulness of long-term xylem trait chronologies as records of environmental conditions at annual resolution. Statistical analyses revealed that most of the variability in tree-ring width and specific hydraulic conductivity might be explained by cambial age. Additionally, results highlighted appreciable relationships between xylem traits and climate variability more than tree-ring width, supporting also the evidence that the plant hydraulic traits are closely linked to local climate extremes rather than average climatic conditions. We reported that the probability of extreme departure in specific hydraulic conductivity (Ks) rises at extreme values of Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). Therefore, changing frequency or intensity of extreme events might overcome the adaptive limits of vascular transport, resulting in substantial reduction of hydraulic functionality and, hence increased incidence of xylem dysfunctions. PMID:27532008

White-light coronal mass ejections: A new perspective from LASCO

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

St.Cyr, O. C.; Howard, R. A.; Simnett, G. M.; Gurman, J. B.; Plunkett, S. P.; Sheeley, N. R., Jr.; Schwenn, R.; Koomen, M. J.; Brueckner, G. E.; Michels, D. J.;

Photo-Realistic Statistical Skull Morphotypes: New Exemplars for Ancestry and Sex Estimation in Forensic Anthropology.

PubMed

Caple, Jodi; Stephan, Carl N

2017-05-01

Graphic exemplars of cranial sex and ancestry are essential to forensic anthropology for standardizing casework, training analysts, and communicating group trends. To date, graphic exemplars have comprised hand-drawn sketches, or photographs of individual specimens, which risks bias/subjectivity. Here, we performed quantitative analysis of photographic data to generate new photo-realistic and objective exemplars of skull form. Standardized anterior and left lateral photographs of skulls for each sex were analyzed in the computer graphics program Psychomorph for the following groups: South African Blacks, South African Whites, American Blacks, American Whites, and Japanese. The average cranial form was calculated for each photographic view, before the color information for every individual was warped to the average form and combined to produce statistical averages. These mathematically derived exemplars-and their statistical exaggerations or extremes-retain the high-resolution detail of the original photographic dataset, making them the ideal casework and training reference standards. © 2016 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.

Aerodynamic Analysis of Tektites and Their Parent Bodies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Adams, E. W.; Huffaker, R. M.

1962-01-01

Experiment and analysis indicate that the button-type australites were derived from glassy spheres which entered or re-entered the atmosphere as cold solid bodies; in case of average-size specimens, the entry direction was nearly horizontal and the entry speed between 6.5 and 11.2 km/sec. Terrestrial origin of such spheres is impossible because of extremely high deceleration rates at low altitudes. The limited extension of the strewn fields rules out extraterrestrial origin of clusters of such spheres because of stability considerations for clusters in space. However, tektites may have been released as liquid droplets from glassy parent bodies ablating in the atmosphere of the earth. The australites then have skipped together with the parent body in order to re-enter as cold spheres. Terrestrial origin of a parent body would require an extremely violent natural event. Ablation analysis shows that fusion of opaque siliceous stone into glass by aerodynamic heating is impossible.

The West Nile Virus outbreak in Israel (2000) from a new perspective: the regional impact of climate change.

PubMed

Paz, Shlomit

2006-02-01

The West Nile Virus (WNV) outbreak in Israel in 2000 appeared after medical and climatic warning signs. Re-analysis of the epidemic from a new viewpoint, the regional impact of global warming, especially the worsening in the summers' heat conditions, is presented. The disease appeared averagely at a lag of 3-9 weeks (strongest correlation = lag of 7 weeks). The minimum temperature was found as the most important climatic factor that encourages the disease earlier appearance. Extreme heat is more significant than high air humidity for increasing WNV cases. An early extreme rise in the summer temperature could be a good indicator of increased vector populations. While 93.5% of cases were in the metropolitan areas, the disease was not reported in the sub-arid regions. The outbreak development was comparable to the cases from Romania (1996) and NYC (1999). Each of those epidemics appeared after a long heatwave.

LASER APPLICATIONS AND OTHER TOPICS IN QUANTUM ELECTRONICS: Laser-induced extreme UV radiation sources for manufacturing next-generation integrated circuits

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Borisov, V. M.; Vinokhodov, A. Yu; Ivanov, A. S.; Kiryukhin, Yu B.; Mishchenko, V. A.; Prokof'ev, A. V.; Khristoforov, O. B.

2009-10-01

The development of high-power discharge sources emitting in the 13.5±0.135-nm spectral band is of current interest because they are promising for applications in industrial EUV (extreme ultraviolet) lithography for manufacturing integrated circuits according to technological precision standards of 22 nm and smaller. The parameters of EUV sources based on a laser-induced discharge in tin vapours between rotating disc electrodes are investigated. The properties of the discharge initiation by laser radiation at different wavelengths are established and the laser pulse parameters providing the maximum energy characteristics of the EUV source are determined. The EUV source developed in the study emits an average power of 276 W in the 13.5±0.135-nm spectral band on conversion to the solid angle 2π sr in the stationary regime at a pulse repetition rate of 3000 Hz.

Global meteorological influences on the record UK rainfall of winter 2013-14

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knight, Jeff R.; Maidens, Anna; Watson, Peter A. G.; Andrews, Martin; Belcher, Stephen; Brunet, Gilbert; Fereday, David; Folland, Chris K.; Scaife, Adam A.; Slingo, Julia

2017-07-01

The UK experienced record average rainfall in winter 2013-14, leading to widespread and prolonged flooding. The immediate cause of this exceptional rainfall was a very strong and persistent cyclonic atmospheric circulation over the North East Atlantic Ocean. This was related to a very strong North Atlantic jet stream which resulted in numerous damaging wind storms. These exceptional meteorological conditions have led to renewed questions about whether anthropogenic climate change is noticeably influencing extreme weather. The regional weather pattern responsible for the extreme UK winter coincided with highly anomalous conditions across the globe. We assess the contributions from various possible remote forcing regions using sets of ocean-atmosphere model relaxation experiments, where winds and temperatures are constrained to be similar to those observed in winter 2013-14 within specified atmospheric domains. We find that influences from the tropics were likely to have played a significant role in the development of the unusual extra-tropical circulation, including a role for the tropical Atlantic sector. Additionally, a stronger and more stable stratospheric polar vortex, likely associated with a strong westerly phase of the stratospheric Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO), appears to have contributed to the extreme conditions. While intrinsic climatic variability clearly has the largest effect on the generation of extremes, results from an analysis which segregates circulation-related and residual rainfall variability suggest that emerging climate change signals made a secondary contribution to extreme rainfall in winter 2013-14.

Using satellite fire detection to calibrate components of the fire weather index system in Malaysia and Indonesia.

PubMed

Dymond, Caren C; Field, Robert D; Roswintiarti, Orbita; Guswanto

2005-04-01

Vegetation fires have become an increasing problem in tropical environments as a consequence of socioeconomic pressures and subsequent land-use change. In response, fire management systems are being developed. This study set out to determine the relationships between two aspects of the fire problems in western Indonesia and Malaysia, and two components of the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index System. The study resulted in a new method for calibrating components of fire danger rating systems based on satellite fire detection (hotspot) data. Once the climate was accounted for, a problematic number of fires were related to high levels of the Fine Fuel Moisture Code. The relationship between climate, Fine Fuel Moisture Code, and hotspot occurrence was used to calibrate Fire Occurrence Potential classes where low accounted for 3% of the fires from 1994 to 2000, moderate accounted for 25%, high 26%, and extreme 38%. Further problems arise when there are large clusters of fires burning that may consume valuable land or produce local smoke pollution. Once the climate was taken into account, the hotspot load (number and size of clusters of hotspots) was related to the Fire Weather Index. The relationship between climate, Fire Weather Index, and hotspot load was used to calibrate Fire Load Potential classes. Low Fire Load Potential conditions (75% of an average year) corresponded with 24% of the hotspot clusters, which had an average size of 30% of the largest cluster. In contrast, extreme Fire Load Potential conditions (1% of an average year) corresponded with 30% of the hotspot clusters, which had an average size of 58% of the maximum. Both Fire Occurrence Potential and Fire Load Potential calibrations were successfully validated with data from 2001. This study showed that when ground measurements are not available, fire statistics derived from satellite fire detection archives can be reliably used for calibration. More importantly, as a result of this work, Malaysia and Indonesia have two new sources of information to initiate fire prevention and suppression activities.

4U 1909+07: A Well-Hidden Pearl

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fuerst, F.; Kreykenbohm, I.; Barragan, L.; Wilms, J.; Rothschild, R. E.; Suchy, S.; Pottschmidt, K.

2009-01-01

We present the first detailed spectral and timing analysis of the High Mass X-ray Binary (HMXB) 4U 1909+07 with INTEGRAL and RXTE. 4U 1909+07 is detected with an average of 2.4 cps in ISGRI. but shows flares up to approx.50 cps. The system shows a pulse period of 605 s, but we found that the period changes erratically around this value. The pulse profile is extremely energy dependent: while it shows a double peaked structure at low energies, the secondary pulse decreases rapidly with increasing energy and above 20 ke V only the primary pulse is visible. This evolution is consistent between peA, HEXTE and ISGRI. We find that the phase averaged spectrum can be well fitted with a photo-absorbed power law with a cutoff at high energies and a blackbody component. To investigate the peculiar pulse profile, we performed phase resolved spectral analysis. We find that a change in the cutoff energy is required to fit the changing spectrum of the different pulse phases

A statistical approach to rank multiple priorities in environmental epidemiology: an example from high-risk areas in Sardinia, Italy.

PubMed

Catelan, Dolores; Biggeri, Annibale

2008-11-01

In environmental epidemiology, long lists of relative risk estimates from exposed populations are compared to a reference to scrutinize the dataset for extremes. Here, inference on disease profiles for given areas, or for fixed disease population signatures, are of interest and summaries can be obtained averaging over areas or diseases. We have developed a multivariate hierarchical Bayesian approach to estimate posterior rank distributions and we show how to produce league tables of ranks with credibility intervals useful to address the above mentioned inferential problems. Applying the procedure to a real dataset from the report "Environment and Health in Sardinia (Italy)" we selected 18 areas characterized by high environmental pressure for industrial, mining or military activities investigated for 29 causes of deaths among male residents. Ranking diseases highlighted the increased burdens of neoplastic (cancerous), and non-neoplastic respiratory diseases in the heavily polluted area of Portoscuso. The averaged ranks by disease over areas showed lung cancer among the three highest positions.

The dynamics of heatwave over a coastal megacity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramamurthy, P.

2017-12-01

A majority of the current population in the U.S. resides in urban areas and nearly 40% live in urban coastal communities. These cities are disproportionately affected by extreme events such as heatwaves, hurricanes and extreme precipitation. The microclimate of the coastal cities is profoundly influenced by the interaction between the highly convective urban core and the moist sea breeze advection. However, such interactions are poorly characterized due to lack of observations over these complex terrains. Herein we use a comprehensive observational platform and numerical simulations to characterize the impact of heatwaves over New York City. As part of the campaign the urban boundary layer over New York City was continuously monitored during July 2016, a period that witnessed three heatwave events. Surface weather stations and indoor sensors were also used to characterize the urban heat island intensity. Our results reveal that during the month, the urban heat island intensity was nearly twice as compared to the decadal average. During the heatwave episodes urban heat island intensities as high as 10 ˚C were observed. The thermal profiles indicate elevated temperatures in much of the boundary layer between 800-2500 m during the heatwave episodes. The profiles indicate a complex thermal structure and high intra-city variability. Thermal internal boundary layer was observed in neighborhoods populated by tall buildings. The results show that heat released from buildings heating and air conditioning system during extreme heat events can be as high as 18 percent of the overall available energy. Overall the high-pressure system during the heatwave episodes acted as a thermal block and much of the heat generated in the urban surface layer remained within the boundary layer, thereby amplifying the near surface air temperature.

Atmospheric concentrations of ammonia and nitrogen dioxide at a tropical coral cay with high seabird density.

PubMed

Schmidt, Susanne; Mackintosh, Katrina; Gillett, Rob; Pudmenzky, Alex; Allen, Diane E; Rennenberg, Heinz; Mueller, Jochen F

2010-02-01

Ecosystems with high seabird densities can receive extremely high inputs of nitrogen (N) from bird guano. Seabirds deposit up to 1000 kg N ha(-1) y(-1) on Heron Island, a tropical coral cay of the Great Barrier Reef. We quantified atmospheric concentrations of ammonia (NH(3)) and nitrogen dioxide (NO(2)) with passive air samplers at beach, woodland and forest along a gradient of low, intermediate and high bird densities, respectively. NO(2) concentrations at all studied sites were generally low (average 0.2-2.3 microg NO(2) m(-3)) and similar to other ecosystems. An exception was the main traffic zone of helicopter and barge traffic which had elevated concentrations (average 6.2, maximum 25 microg NO(2) m(-3)) comparable to traffic-intense urban areas elsewhere. Increasing average NH(3) concentrations from 0.7 to 17 microg NH(3) m(-3) was associated with greater seabird nesting density. In areas of intermediate and high bird density, NH(3) concentrations were substantially higher than those typically detected in natural and agricultural systems, supporting the notion that seabird guano is a major source of NH(3). The steep decline of NH(3) concentrations in areas with low bird density indicates that trans-island transport of NH(3) is low. NH(3) may not only be re-deposited in close vicinity of the source but is also transported vertically as concentrations above the tree canopy averaged 7.5 microg NH(3) m(-3). How much guano-derived NH(3) contributes to reefal waters via the possible transfer path water --> land --> water remains to be established. We discuss atmospheric concentrations of NH(3) and NO(2) in context of N-based gaseous pollutants and effects on vegetation.

Single shot polarization characterization of XUV FEL pulses from crossed polarized undulators

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ferrari, E.; Allaria, E.; Buck, J.

Polarization control is a key feature of light generated by short-wavelength free-electron lasers. In this work, we report the first experimental characterization of the polarization properties of an extreme ultraviolet high gain free-electron laser operated with crossed polarized undulators. We research the average degree of polarization and the shot-to-shot stability and we analyze aspects such as existing possibilities for controlling and switching the polarization state of the emitted light. The results are in agreement with predictions based on Gaussian beams propagation.

Single shot polarization characterization of XUV FEL pulses from crossed polarized undulators

DOE PAGES

Ferrari, E.; Allaria, E.; Buck, J.; ...

2015-08-28

Polarization control is a key feature of light generated by short-wavelength free-electron lasers. In this work, we report the first experimental characterization of the polarization properties of an extreme ultraviolet high gain free-electron laser operated with crossed polarized undulators. We research the average degree of polarization and the shot-to-shot stability and we analyze aspects such as existing possibilities for controlling and switching the polarization state of the emitted light. The results are in agreement with predictions based on Gaussian beams propagation.

Atmospheric deposition of selected chemicals and their effect on nonpoint-source pollution in the Twin Cities Metropolitan Area, Minnesota

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brown, R.G.

1984-01-01

The atmospheric contribution to nonpoint-source-runoff pollution of nitrogen, in the form of nitrite-plus-nitrate, and lead was extremely high contributing as much as 84 percent of the runoff load. In contrast, phosphorus and chloride inputs were low averaging of 6 percent of the total runoff load. Future investigations of nonpoint-source pollution in runoff might include collection of data on atmospheric deposition of nitrite-plus-nitrate nitrogen and lead because of the importance of that source of these constituents in runoff.

[Simulation study of air quality health index in 5 cities in China: 2013-2015].

PubMed

Wang, W T; Sun, Q H; Qin, J; Li, T T; Shi, X M

2017-03-10

Objective: To construct the air quality health index (AQHI) by inclusion of air pollutants PM(2.5) and O(3) in Guangzhou, Shanghai, Xi' an, Beijing, Shenyang, and explore scientificity and feasibility of its application in China. Methods: The daily average concentrations of PM(2.5) and O(3) in air, and daily average mortality from 2013 to 2015 in the 5 cities in China, the exposure-response coefficients of PM(2.5) and O(3) and total mortality from Meta studies in China were used to construct local AQHI. The health risk levels of air pollution in the 5 cities were calculated and compared with the characteristics of single pollutant concentrationof PM(2.5) or O(3). Results: In the 5 cities, the average concentration of PM(2.5) was highest in Beijing (82 μg/m(3)) and lowest in Guangzhou (46 μg/m(3)). And the average concentration of O(3) was highest in Shanghai (72 μg/m(3)) and lowest in Xi' an (45 μg/m(3)). In all the cities, the average concentration of PM(2.5) was highest in winter and lowest in summer. In summer, the average concentration of O(3) was lowest. But the health risk level of AQHI showed that the 5 cities had higher frequency of low or medium risk averagely. And Beijing had the highest frequency of high risk in summer (5.69%). Xi' an had the highest frequency of extremely high risk in winter (1.63%). Conclusions: In this study, AQHI could be constructed by using air PM(2.5) and O(3) concentration data which can be obtained in many areas in China. The application of this index is scientific and feasible in China.

Coping with the cold: an ecological context for the abundance and distribution of rock sandpipers during winter in upper Cook Inlet, Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ruthrauff, Daniel R.; Gill, Robert E.; Tibbitts, T. Lee

2013-01-01

Shorebirds are conspicuous and abundant at high northern latitudes during spring and summer, but as seasonal conditions deteriorate, few remain during winter. To the best of our knowledge, Cook Inlet, Alaska (60.6˚ N, 151.6˚ W), is the world’s coldest site that regularly supports wintering populations of shorebirds, and it is also the most northerly nonbreeding location for shorebirds in the Pacific Basin. During the winters of 1997–2012, we conducted aerial surveys of upper Cook Inlet to document the spatial and temporal distribution and number of Rock Sandpipers (Calidris ptilocnemis) using the inlet. The average survey total was 8191 ± 6143 SD birds, and the average of each winter season’s highest single-day count was 13 603 ± 4948 SD birds. We detected only Rock Sandpipers during our surveys, essentially all of which were individuals of the nominate subspecies (C. p. ptilocnemis). Survey totals in some winters closely matched the population estimate for this subspecies, demonstrating the region’s importance as a nonbreeding resource to the subspecies. Birds were most often found at only a handful of sites in upper Cook Inlet, but shifted their distribution to more southerly locations in the inlet during periods of extreme cold. Two environmental factors allow Rock Sandpipers to inhabit Cook Inlet during winter: 1) an abundant bivalve (Macoma balthica) food source and 2) current and tidal dynamics that keep foraging substrates accessible during all but extreme periods of cold and ice accretion. C. p. ptilocnemis is a subspecies of high conservation concern for which annual winter surveys may serve as a relatively inexpensive population-monitoring tool that will also provide insight into adaptations that allow these birds to exploit high-latitude environments in winter.

Probing the character of ultra-fast dislocations

DOE PAGES

Rudd, R. E.; Ruestes, C. J.; Bringa, E. M.; ...

2015-11-23

Plasticity is often controlled by dislocation motion, which was first measured for low pressure, low strain rate conditions decades ago. However, many applications require knowledge of dislocation motion at high stress conditions where the data are sparse, and come from indirect measurements dominated by the effect of dislocation density rather than velocity. Here we make predictions based on atomistic simulations that form the basis for a new approach to measure dislocation velocities directly at extreme conditions using three steps: create prismatic dislocation loops in a near-surface region using nanoindentation, drive the dislocations with a shockwave, and use electron microscopy tomore » determine how far the dislocations moved and thus their velocity at extreme stress and strain rate conditions. We report on atomistic simulations of tantalum that make detailed predictions of dislocation flow, and find that the approach is feasible and can uncover an exciting range of phenomena, such as transonic dislocations and a novel form of loop stretching. Furthermore, the simulated configuration enables a new class of experiments to probe average dislocation velocity at very high applied shear stress.« less

Molecular Materials for Nonaqueous Flow Batteries with a High Coulombic Efficiency and Stable Cycling.

PubMed

Milton, Margarita; Cheng, Qian; Yang, Yuan; Nuckolls, Colin; Hernández Sánchez, Raúl; Sisto, Thomas J

2017-12-13

This manuscript presents a working redox battery in organic media that possesses remarkable cycling stability. The redox molecules have a solubility over 1 mol electrons/liter, and a cell with 0.4 M electron concentration is demonstrated with steady performance >450 cycles (>74 days). Such a concentration is among the highest values reported in redox flow batteries with organic electrolytes. The average Coulombic efficiency of this cell during cycling is 99.868%. The stability of the cell approaches the level necessary for a long lifetime nonaqueous redox flow battery. For the membrane, we employ a low cost size exclusion cellulose membrane. With this membrane, we couple the preparation of nanoscale macromolecular electrolytes to successfully avoid active material crossover. We show that this cellulose-based membrane can support high voltages in excess of 3 V and extreme temperatures (-20 to 110 °C). These extremes in temperature and voltage are not possible with aqueous systems. Most importantly, the nanoscale macromolecular platforms we present here for our electrolytes can be readily tuned through derivatization to realize the promise of organic redox flow batteries.

Statistical trend analysis and extreme distribution of significant wave height from 1958 to 1999 - an application to the Italian Seas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martucci, G.; Carniel, S.; Chiggiato, J.; Sclavo, M.; Lionello, P.; Galati, M. B.

2009-09-01

The study is a statistical analysis of sea states timeseries derived using the wave model WAM forced by the ERA-40 dataset in selected areas near the Italian coasts. For the period 1 January 1958 to 31 December 1999 the analysis yields: (i) the existence of a negative trend in the annual- and winter-averaged sea state heights; (ii) the existence of a turning-point in late 70's in the annual-averaged trend of sea state heights at a site in the Northern Adriatic Sea; (iii) the overall absence of a significant trend in the annual-averaged mean durations of sea states over thresholds; (iv) the assessment of the extreme values on a time-scale of thousand years. The analysis uses two methods to obtain samples of extremes from the independent sea states: the r-largest annual maxima and the peak-over-threshold. The two methods show statistical differences in retrieving the return values and more generally in describing the significant wave field. The study shows the existence of decadal negative trends in the significant wave heights and by this it conveys useful information on the wave climatology of the Italian seas during the second half of the 20th century.

Enhanced Cumulative Sum Charts for Monitoring Process Dispersion

PubMed Central

Abujiya, Mu’azu Ramat; Riaz, Muhammad; Lee, Muhammad Hisyam

2015-01-01

The cumulative sum (CUSUM) control chart is widely used in industry for the detection of small and moderate shifts in process location and dispersion. For efficient monitoring of process variability, we present several CUSUM control charts for monitoring changes in standard deviation of a normal process. The newly developed control charts based on well-structured sampling techniques - extreme ranked set sampling, extreme double ranked set sampling and double extreme ranked set sampling, have significantly enhanced CUSUM chart ability to detect a wide range of shifts in process variability. The relative performances of the proposed CUSUM scale charts are evaluated in terms of the average run length (ARL) and standard deviation of run length, for point shift in variability. Moreover, for overall performance, we implore the use of the average ratio ARL and average extra quadratic loss. A comparison of the proposed CUSUM control charts with the classical CUSUM R chart, the classical CUSUM S chart, the fast initial response (FIR) CUSUM R chart, the FIR CUSUM S chart, the ranked set sampling (RSS) based CUSUM R chart and the RSS based CUSUM S chart, among others, are presented. An illustrative example using real dataset is given to demonstrate the practicability of the application of the proposed schemes. PMID:25901356

Wrist loading patterns during pommel horse exercises.

PubMed

Markolf, K L; Shapiro, M S; Mandelbaum, B R; Teurlings, L

1990-01-01

Gymnastics is a sport which involves substantial periods of upper extremity support as well as frequent impacts to the wrist. Not surprisingly, wrist pain is a common finding in gymnasts. Of all events, the pommel horse is the most painful. In order to study the forces of wrist impact, a standard pommel horse was instrumented with a specially designed load cell to record the resultant force of the hand on the pommel during a series of basic skills performed by a group of seventeen elite male gymnasts. The highest mean peak forces were recorded during the front scissors and flair exercises (1.5 BW) with peaks of up to 2.0 BW for some gymnasts. The mean peak force for hip circles at the center or end of the horse was 1.1 BW. The mean overall loading rate (initial contact to first loading peak) ranged from 5.2 BWs-1 (hip circles) to 10.6 BW s-1 (flairs). However, many recordings displayed localized initial loading spikes which occurred during 'hard' landings on the pommel. When front scissors were performed in an aggressive manner, the initial loading spikes averaged 1.0 BW in magnitude (maximum 1.8 BW) with an average rise time of 8.2 ms; calculated localized loading rates averaged 129 BW s-1 (maximum 219 BW s-1). These loading parameters are comparable to those encountered at heel strike during running. These impact forces and loading rates are remarkably high for an upper extremity joint not normally exposed to weight-bearing loads, and may contribute to the pathogenesis of wrist injuries in gymnastics.

Formation, distribution and variability in snow cover on the Asian territory of the USSR

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pupkov, V. N.

1985-01-01

A description is given of maps compiled for annual and average multiple-year water reserves. The annual and average multiple-year maximum snow cover height for winter, extreme values of maximum snow reserves, and the average height and snow reserves at the end of each decade are shown. These maps were made for the entire Asian territory of the USSR, excluding Central Asia, Kamchatka Peninsula, and the Sakhalin Islands.

Extreme fluctuations in stochastic network coordination with time delays

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hunt, D.; Molnár, F.; Szymanski, B. K.; Korniss, G.

2015-12-01

We study the effects of uniform time delays on the extreme fluctuations in stochastic synchronization and coordination problems with linear couplings in complex networks. We obtain the average size of the fluctuations at the nodes from the behavior of the underlying modes of the network. We then obtain the scaling behavior of the extreme fluctuations with system size, as well as the distribution of the extremes on complex networks, and compare them to those on regular one-dimensional lattices. For large complex networks, when the delay is not too close to the critical one, fluctuations at the nodes effectively decouple, and the limit distributions converge to the Fisher-Tippett-Gumbel density. In contrast, fluctuations in low-dimensional spatial graphs are strongly correlated, and the limit distribution of the extremes is the Airy density. Finally, we also explore the effects of nonlinear couplings on the stability and on the extremes of the synchronization landscapes.

Large uncertainties in observed daily precipitation extremes over land

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Herold, Nicholas; Behrangi, Ali; Alexander, Lisa V.

2017-01-01

We explore uncertainties in observed daily precipitation extremes over the terrestrial tropics and subtropics (50°S-50°N) based on five commonly used products: the Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) dataset, the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre-Full Data Daily (GPCC-FDD) dataset, the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) multi-satellite research product (T3B42 v7), the Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks-Climate Data Record (PERSIANN-CDR), and the Global Precipitation Climatology Project's One-Degree Daily (GPCP-1DD) dataset. We use the precipitation indices R10mm and Rx1day, developed by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices, to explore the behavior of "moderate" and "extreme" extremes, respectively. In order to assess the sensitivity of extreme precipitation to different grid sizes we perform our calculations on four common spatial resolutions (0.25° × 0.25°, 1° × 1°, 2.5° × 2.5°, and 3.75° × 2.5°). The impact of the chosen "order of operation" in calculating these indices is also determined. Our results show that moderate extremes are relatively insensitive to product and resolution choice, while extreme extremes can be very sensitive. For example, at 0.25° × 0.25° quasi-global mean Rx1day values vary from 37 mm in PERSIANN-CDR to 62 mm in T3B42. We find that the interproduct spread becomes prominent at resolutions of 1° × 1° and finer, thus establishing a minimum effective resolution at which observational products agree. Without improvements in interproduct spread, these exceedingly large observational uncertainties at high spatial resolution may limit the usefulness of model evaluations. As has been found previously, resolution sensitivity can be largely eliminated by applying an order of operation where indices are calculated prior to regridding. However, this approach is not appropriate when true area averages are desired (e.g., for model evaluations).

Chemical and mineralogical changes of waste and tailings from the Murgul Cu deposit (Artvin, NE Turkey): implications for occurrence of acid mine drainage.

PubMed

Sağlam, Emine Selva; Akçay, Miğraç

2016-04-01

Being one of the largest copper-producing resources in Turkey, the Murgul deposit has been a source of environmental pollution for very long time. Operated through four open pits with an annual production of about 3 million tons of ore at an average grade of about 0.5% Cu, the deposit to date has produced an enormous pile of waste (exceeding 100 million tons) with tailings composed of 36 % SiO2, 39% Fe2O3 and 32% S, mainly in the form of pyrite and quartz. Waters in the vicinity of the deposit vary from high acid-acid (2.71-3.85) and high-extremely metal rich (34.48-348.12 mg/l in total) in the open pits to near neutral (6.51-7.83) and low metal (14.39-973.52 μg/l in total) in downstream environments. Despite low metal contents and near neutral pH levels of the latter, their suspended particle loads are extremely high and composed mainly of quartz and clay minerals with highly elevated levels of Fe (3.5 to 24.5% Fe2O3; 11% on average) and S (0.5 to 20.6% S; 7% on average), showing that Fe is mainly in the form of pyrite and lesser hematite. They also contain high concentrations of As, Au, Ba, Cu, Pb, and Zn. Waters collected along the course of polluted drainages are supersaturated with respect to Fe phases such as goethite, hematite, maghemite, magnetite, schwertmannite and ferrihydrite. Secondary phases such as Fe-sulphates are only found near the pits, but not along the streams due to neutral pH conditions, where pebbles are covered and cemented by Fe-oxides and hydroxides indicating that oxidation of pyrite has taken place especially at times of low water load. It follows, then, that the pyrite-rich sediment load of streams fed by the waste of the Murgul deposit is currently a big threat to the aquatic life and environment and will continue to be so even after the closure of the deposit. In fact, the oxidation will be enhanced and acidity increased due to natural conditions, which necessitates strong remedial actions to be taken.

The Exceptionally High Life Expectancy of Costa Rican Nonagenarians

PubMed Central

ROSERO-BIXBY, LUIS

2008-01-01

Robust data from a voter registry show that Costa Rican nonagenarians have an exceptionally high live expectancy. Mortality at age 90 in Costa Rica is at least 14% lower than an average of 13 high-income countries. This advantage increases with age by 1% per year. Males have an additional 12% advantage. Age-90 life expectancy for males is 4.4 years, one-half year more than any other country in the world. These estimates do not use problematic data on reported ages, but ages are computed from birth dates in the Costa Rican birth-registration ledgers. Census data confirm the exceptionally high survival of elderly Costa Ricans, especially males. Comparisons with the United States and Sweden show that the Costa Rican advantage comes mostly from reduced incidence of cardiovascular diseases, coupled with a low prevalence of obesity, as the only available explanatory risk factor. Costa Rican nonagenarians are survivors of cohorts that underwent extremely harsh health conditions when young, and their advantage might be just a heterogeneity in frailty effect that might disappear in more recent cohorts. The availability of reliable estimates for the oldest-old in low-income populations is extremely rare. These results may enlighten the debate over how harsh early-life health conditions affect older-age mortality. PMID:18939667

Winter Storm Jupiter of January 2017: Meteorological Drivers, Synoptic Evolution, and Climate Change Considerations in Portland, Oregon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dean, S.; Loikith, P. C.

2017-12-01

Although the Pacific Northwest has some of the highest wintertime precipitation in the United States, most urban areas receive little in the way of snow. While 37 inches of wintertime rain fall in Portland on average annually, the city only receives four inches of snow on average. Although wintertime extreme snowstorm events are rare in Portland, in the last century they have occurred about once every ten years. On January 10-12th, 2017, winter storm Jupiter brought 11 inches of snow to downtown Portland within a 12-hour period, making it the largest snowstorm for the city in twenty years. The city declared a state of emergency, over 30,000 citizens lost power, and thousands of businesses were forced to shut down. The anomalously cold air and high amounts of snowfall in a short amount of time made the storm different from others in recent years. This study aims to discover the meteorological drivers behind the January 2017 snowstorm in Portland, Oregon. We also aim to understand how this storm compared with other local storms in the past, and assess the likelihood of a similar event occurring in the future. To do this, reanalysis data were used to display the synoptic evolution of the January 2017 storm. We compared this storm with two other extreme snowfall events from December 2008 and January 1980, assessing meteorological similarities and differences between storms. Results show that the 2017 event was associated with a slow moving, strong low-pressure system accompanied by a 500 hPa trough. These large-scale features helped drive slow moving, locally heavy snow bands over the city of Portland. At the same time, an unusually strong Arctic high-pressure system moved into the interior Pacific Northwest allowing for strong cold air advection west through the Cascade Mountain Range and Columbia River Gorge. Temperature trends show warming of 1-2 °C in the Pacific Northwest since the middle of the last century. Because of this, uncertainty associated with occurrence and magnitude of extreme snowfall events with respect to climate change must also be assessed. Understanding essential questions about the synoptic evolution of extreme snowfall events will better equip meteorologists and city planners to understand how this event occurred, and what to look for to better prepare Pacific Northwest cities for future storms.

Microbial loop contribution to exergy in the sediments of the Marsala lagoon (Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pusceddu, A.; Danovaro, R.

2003-04-01

Recent advances in ecological modelling have stressed the need for new descriptors of ecosystem health, able to consider the actual transfer of energy through food webs, including also the potential transfer/loss of (genetic) information. In ecological terms, exergy is defined as a goal function which, as sum of energy (biomass) and (genetic) information contained in a given system due to living organisms, acts as a quality indicator of ecosystems. Biopolymeric organic carbon (BPC) quantity and biochemical composition, bacteria, heterotrophic nanoflagellate and meiofauna abundance, biomass and exergy contents were investigated, on a seasonal basis, in the Marsala lagoon (Mediterranean Sea), at two stations characterized by contrasting hydrodynamic conditions. Carbohydrate (2.8 mg g-1), protein (1.6 mg g-1) and lipid (0.86 mg g-1) contents were extremely high, with values at the more exposed station about 3 times lower than those at the sheltered one. BPC (on average 2.5 mg C g-1), dominated by carbohydrates (50%), was mostly refractory and largely unaccounted for by primary organic matter (4% of BPC), indicating that the Marsala lagoon sediments act as a "detritus sink". At both stations, bacterial (on average 0.3 mg C g-1) and heterotrophic nanoflagellate (9.8 μgC g-1) biomass values were rather high, whereas meiofauna biomass was extremely low (on average 7.2 μg C cm-2). The exergy transfer along the benthic microbial loop components in the Marsala lagoon appeared largely bottlenecked by the refractory composition of organic detritus. In the more exposed station, the exergy transfer towards the higher trophic levels was more efficient than in the sheltered one. Although total exergy values were significantly higher in summer than in winter, at both stations the exergy transfer in winter was more efficient than in summer. Our results indicate that, in 'detritus sink' systems, auxiliary energy (e.g., wind-induced sediment resuspension) might be of paramount importance for increasing efficiency of organic detritus channeling to higher trophic levels.

Field-acclimated Gossypium hirsutum cultivars exhibit genotypic and seasonal differences in photosystem II thermostability.

PubMed

Snider, John L; Oosterhuis, Derrick M; Collins, Guy D; Pilon, Cristiane; Fitzsimons, Toby R

2013-03-15

Previous investigations have demonstrated that photosystem II (PSII) thermostability acclimates to prior exposure to heat and drought, but contrasting results have been reported for cotton (Gossypium hirsutum). We hypothesized that PSII thermotolerance in G. hirsutum would acclimate to environmental conditions during the growing season and that there would be differences in PSII thermotolerance between commercially-available U.S. cultivars. To this end, three cotton cultivars were grown under dryland conditions in Tifton Georgia, and two under irrigated conditions in Marianna Arkansas. At Tifton, measurements included PSII thermotolerance (T15, the temperature causing a 15% decline in maximum quantum yield), leaf temperatures, air temperatures, midday (1200 to 1400h) leaf water potentials (ΨMD), leaf-air vapor pressure deficit (VPD), actual quantum yield (ΦPSII) and electron transport rate through PSII (ETR) on three sample dates. At Marianna, T15 was measured on two sample dates. Optimal air and leaf temperatures were observed on all sample dates in Tifton, but PSII thermotolerance increased with water deficit conditions (ΨMD=-3.1MPa), and ETR was either unaffected or increased under water-stress. Additionally, T15 for PHY 499 was ∼5°C higher than for the other cultivars examined (DP 0912 and DP 1050). The Marianna site experienced more extreme high temperature conditions (20-30 days Tmax≥35°C), and showed an increase in T15 with higher average Tmax. When average T15 values for each location and sample date were plotted versus average daily Tmax, strong, positive relationships (r(2) from .954 to .714) were observed between Tmax and T15. For all locations T15 was substantially higher than actual field temperature conditions. We conclude that PSII thermostability in G. hirsutum acclimates to pre-existing environmental conditions; PSII is extremely tolerant to high temperature and water-deficit stress; and differences in PSII thermotolerance exist between commercially-available cultivars. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

Characteristics of Extreme Geoelectric Fields and Their Possible Causes: Localized Peak Enhancements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pulkkinen, A. A.; Ngwira, C. M.; Bernabeu, E.; Eichner, J.; Viljanen, A.; Crowley, G.

2015-12-01

One of the major challenges pertaining to extreme geomagnetic storms is to understand the basic processes associated with the development of dynamic magnetosphere-ionosphere currents, which generate large induced surface geoelectric fields. Previous studies point out the existence of localized peak geoelectric field enhancements during extreme storms. We examined induced global geoelectric fields derived from ground-based magnetometer recordings for 12 extreme geomagnetic storms between the years 1982--2005. However for the present study, an in-depth analysis was performed for two important extreme storms, October 29, 2003 and March 13, 1989. The primary purpose of this paper is to provide further evidence on the existence of localized peak geoelectric field enhancements, and to show that the structure of the geoelectric field during these localized extremes at single sites can differ greatly from globally and regionally averaged fields. Although the physical processes that govern the development of these localized extremes are still not clear, we discuss some possible causes.

Considerations on the influence of extreme events on the phosphorus transport from river catchments to the sea.

PubMed

Zessner, M; Postolache, C; Clement, A; Kovacs, A; Strauss, P

2005-01-01

In this paper, results from rivers of different sizes in Romania, Hungary and Austria are presented. The paper shows the dynamics of extreme events and their contribution to the total P and suspended solids transported in these rivers. Special attention is paid to the influence of the size of the catchment and the event probability on the relative contribution of a single event to the total loads transported in the river. Further, the development of phosphorus loads along the Danube River at a flood event is shown. From the results it can be concluded that there is no immediate influence of high flow and flood events in upstream parts of the Basin on the transport of phosphorus from the catchment to the receiving Sea. Particle-bound phosphorus is mobilised from the catchment (through erosion) and the river bottom to a high extent at high flow events and transported at peak discharges to downstream, where retention by sedimentation of particles takes place. On the one hand this retention is a transport to flooded areas. In this case it can be considered as more or less long term retention. On the other hand sedimentation takes place in the riverbed, in case the tractive effort of the river is reduced. In this second case the P-pool in the sediments of the sedimentation area will be increased. If anaerobic conditions in the sediment appear, part of the phosphorus will be transformed to soluble ortho-phosphate and will continuously contribute to the phosphorus transport to the receiving sea. Part of the P-retained in the river sediment will be mobilised by resuspension at the next biggest high flow event. Altogether, these alternating processes of suspension, transport, export to flooded areas or sedimentation in the river bed with partly solution and partly resuspension at the next event decrease the share of the phosphorus transport during high flow events on the total loads transported in the more downstream parts of a catchments as compared to the more upstream parts. In the year of occurrence of an extreme flood event the P-transport of this year is dominated by the flood event. As an average over many years the contribution of high flow events to the total P-transport still may be between 7 and 20% in smaller catchments (around 1,000 km2). In a big catchment (e.g. river Danube) much smaller contributions of flood events on the total P-transport can be expected as an average over many years.

Natural gamma radioactivity in the villages of Kanyakumari District, Tamil Nadu, India.

PubMed

Padua, Jeni Chandar; Basil Rose, M R

2013-01-01

In situ radiometric survey carried out in 81 revenue villages of Kanyakumari District, Tamil Nadu, India, using a portable radiation dosemeter/detector, revealed the existence of radiation hotspots along the coastal belt. A close observation of the coastal villages specifically revealed high background radioactivity in 14 coastal villages. A very high intrinsic anomalous radioactivity of 41.03 μSv h(-1) was observed, in a famous tourist spot in the coastal belt of Kanyakumari District. This is the highest level of radiation registered in South India, which is extremely higher than the permissible world average and is suggestive of causing severe clinical problems on continuous and prolonged exposure.

The vulnerability of commercial aircraft avionics to carbon fibers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Meyers, J. A.; Salmirs, S.

1980-01-01

Avionics components commonly used in commercial aircraft were tested for vulnerability to failure when operated in an environment with a high density of graphite fibers. The components were subjected to a series of exposures to graphite fibers of different lengths. Lengths used for the tests were (in order) 1 mm, 3 mm, and 10 mm. The test procedure included subjecting the equipment to characteristic noise and shock environments. Most of the equipment was invulnerable or did not fail until extremely high average exposures were reached. The single exception was an air traffic control transponder produced in the early 1960's. It had the largest case open area through which fibers could enter and it had no coated boards.

High power Raman-converter based on H2-filled inhibited coupling HC-PCF

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Benoit, A.; Beaudou, B.; Debord, B.; Gerome, F.; Benabid, F.

2017-02-01

We report on high power Raman-converter frequency stage based on hydrogen-filled inhibited-coupling hollow-core photonic crystal fibers pumped by an Yb-fiber picosecond laser. This fiber Raman-convertor can operate in two SRS emission regimes by simply controlling the fiber length or the gas pressure. It can set to either generate favorably single laser line or to generate an extremely wide Raman comb. Based on this we demonstrate a pico-second pulse Raman source of 9.3 W average-power at 1.8 μm, and an ultra-wide Raman comb spanning over more than five octaves from UV to mid-infrared, containing around 70 laser lines.

Uncertainties in observations and climate projections for the North East India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soraisam, Bidyabati; Karumuri, Ashok; D. S., Pai

2018-01-01

The Northeast-India has undergone many changes in climatic-vegetation related issues in the last few decades due to increased human activities. However, lack of observations makes it difficult to ascertain the climate change. The study involves the mean, seasonal cycle, trend and extreme-month analysis for summer-monsoon and winter seasons of observed climate data from Indian Meteorological Department (1° × 1°) and Aphrodite & CRU-reanalysis (both 0.5° × 0.5°), and five regional-climate-model simulations (LMDZ, MPI, GFDL, CNRM and ACCESS) data from AR5/CORDEX-South-Asia (0.5° × 0.5°). Long-term (1970-2005) observed, minimum and maximum monthly temperature and precipitation, and the corresponding CORDEX-South-Asia data for historical (1970-2005) and future-projections of RCP4.5 (2011-2060) have been analyzed for long-term trends. A large spread is found across the models in spatial distributions of various mean maximum/minimum climate statistics, though models capture a similar trend in the corresponding area-averaged seasonal cycles qualitatively. Our observational analysis broadly suggests that there is no significant trend in rainfall. Significant trends are observed in the area-averaged minimum temperature during winter. All the CORDEX-South-Asia simulations for the future project either a decreasing insignificant trend in seasonal precipitation, but increasing trend for both seasonal maximum and minimum temperature over the northeast India. The frequency of extreme monthly maximum and minimum temperature are projected to increase. It is not clear from future projections how the extreme rainfall months during JJAS may change. The results show the uncertainty exists in the CORDEX-South-Asia model projections over the region in spite of the relatively high resolution.

Effect of Reduced Stiffness Dance Flooring on Lower Extremity Joint Angular Trajectories During a Ballet Jump.

PubMed

Hackney, James; Brummel, Sara; Newman, Mary; Scott, Shannon; Reinagel, Matthew; Smith, Jennifer

2015-09-01

We carried out a study to investigate how low stiffness flooring may help prevent overuse injuries of the lower extremity in dancers. It was hypothesized that performing a ballet jump (sauté) on a reduced stiffness dance floor would decrease maximum joint flexion angles and negative angular velocities at the hips, knees, or ankles compared to performing the same jump on a harder floor. The participants were 15 young adult female dancers (age range 18 to 28, mean = 20.89 ± 2.93 years) with at least 5 years of continuous ballet experience and without history of serious lower body injury, surgery, or recent pain. They performed sautés on a (low stiffness) Harlequin ® WoodSpring Floor and on a vinyl-covered hardwood on concrete floor. Maximum joint flexion angles and negative velocities at bilateral hips, knees, and ankles were measured with the "Ariel Performance Analysis System" (APAS). Paired one-tailed t-tests yielded significant decreases in maximum knee angle (average decrease = 3.4° ± 4.2°, p = 0.026) and angular negative velocity of the ankles (average decrease = 18.7°/sec ± 27.9°/sec, p = 0.009) with low stiffness flooring. If the knee angle is less acute, then the length of the external knee flexion moment arm will also be shorter and result in a smaller external knee flexion moment, given an equal landing force. Also, high velocities of eccentric muscle contraction, which are necessary to control negative angular velocity of the ankle joint, are associated with higher risk of musculotendinous injury. Hence, our findings indicate that reduced floor stiffness may indeed help decrease the likelihood of lower extremity injuries.

A Metastatistical Approach to Satellite Estimates of Extreme Rainfall Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zorzetto, E.; Marani, M.

2017-12-01

The estimation of the average recurrence interval of intense rainfall events is a central issue for both hydrologic modeling and engineering design. These estimates require the inference of the properties of the right tail of the statistical distribution of precipitation, a task often performed using the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution, estimated either from a samples of annual maxima (AM) or with a peaks over threshold (POT) approach. However, these approaches require long and homogeneous rainfall records, which often are not available, especially in the case of remote-sensed rainfall datasets. We use here, and tailor it to remotely-sensed rainfall estimates, an alternative approach, based on the metastatistical extreme value distribution (MEVD), which produces estimates of rainfall extreme values based on the probability distribution function (pdf) of all measured `ordinary' rainfall event. This methodology also accounts for the interannual variations observed in the pdf of daily rainfall by integrating over the sample space of its random parameters. We illustrate the application of this framework to the TRMM Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis rainfall dataset, where MEVD optimally exploits the relatively short datasets of satellite-sensed rainfall, while taking full advantage of its high spatial resolution and quasi-global coverage. Accuracy of TRMM precipitation estimates and scale issues are here investigated for a case study located in the Little Washita watershed, Oklahoma, using a dense network of rain gauges for independent ground validation. The methodology contributes to our understanding of the risk of extreme rainfall events, as it allows i) an optimal use of the TRMM datasets in estimating the tail of the probability distribution of daily rainfall, and ii) a global mapping of daily rainfall extremes and distributional tail properties, bridging the existing gaps in rain gauges networks.

The H IX galaxy survey - II. H I kinematics of H I eXtreme galaxies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lutz, K. A.; Kilborn, V. A.; Koribalski, B. S.; Catinella, B.; Józsa, G. I. G.; Wong, O. I.; Stevens, A. R. H.; Obreschkow, D.; Dénes, H.

2018-05-01

By analysing a sample of galaxies selected from the H I Parkes All Sky Survey (HIPASS) to contain more than 2.5 times their expected H I content based on their optical properties, we investigate what drives these H I eXtreme (H IX) galaxies to be so H I-rich. We model the H I kinematics with the Tilted Ring Fitting Code TiRiFiC and compare the observed H IX galaxies to a control sample of galaxies from HIPASS as well as simulated galaxies built with the semi-analytic model DARK SAGE. We find that (1) H I discs in H IX galaxies are more likely to be warped and more likely to host H I arms and tails than in the control galaxies, (2) the average H I and average stellar column density of H IX galaxies is comparable to the control sample, (3) H IX galaxies have higher H I and baryonic specific angular momenta than control galaxies, (4) most H IX galaxies live in higher spin haloes than most control galaxies. These results suggest that H IX galaxies are H I-rich because they can support more H I against gravitational instability due to their high specific angular momentum. The majority of the H IX galaxies inherits their high specific angular momentum from their halo. The H I content of H IX galaxies might be further increased by gas-rich minor mergers. This paper is based on data obtained with the Australia Telescope Compact Array through the large program C 2705.

Hypertensive emergencies remain a clinical problem and are associated with high mortality.

PubMed

Roubsanthisuk, Weranuj; Wongsurin, Unticha; Buranakitjaroen, Peera

2010-01-01

We suspect that hypertensive emergencies remain a clinical problem and data on their long-term prognosis are lacking. This study was conducted in order to determine the frequency, management, and outcome of hypertensive emergencies in this era, in which hypertension treatment is more effective than in the past. We reviewed the medical records of patients with hypertensive emergencies admitted to the medical wards of Siriraj Hospital in 2003 and collected data on their characteristic, management, investigations, and follow-ups through 31 December 2007. There were 184 patients included. Hypertension has been previously diagnosed in 89% of cases. Nearly half also had diabetes mellitus and around a quarter had chronic kidney failure. Mean +/- SD of blood pressure at presentation was 205.96 +/- 21.36/114.60 +/- 20.59 mmHg. Cardiac complications and stroke accounted for 71% and 23% of all target organ damage, respectively. Intravenous nitroglycerine and furosemide were most frequently prescribed. Additional investigations to search for the causes of hypertension were performed in only 55 cases. The average hospital stay was 9.8 days. The in-hospital mortality rate was 15%. Some 26% of patients were lost to follow-up and another 20% died later. Only 19% of patients had regular follow-ups until the end of 2007 and remained on an average of 2.4 antihypertensive drugs. Hypertensive emergencies are usually found in patients with a history of hypertension and diabetes mellitus or kidney failure. Recommended investigations usually failed to identify the cause of hypertension. The mortality rate of these patients was extremely high while their adherence to treatment was extremely poor.

Lead in tissues of mallard ducks dosed with two types of lead shot

USGS Publications Warehouse

Finley, M.T.; Dieter, M.P.; Locke, L.N.

1976-01-01

Mallard ducks (Anas platyrhynchos) were sacrificed one month after ingesting one number 4 all-lead shot or one number 4 lead-iron shot. Livers, kidneys, blood, wingbones, and eggs were analyzed for lead by atomic absorption. Necropsy of sacrificed ducks failed to reveal any of the tissue lesions usually associated with lead poisoning in waterfowl. Lead levels in ducks given all-lead shot averaged about twice those in ducks given lead-iron shot, reflecting the amount of lead in the two types of shot. Lead in the blood of ducks dosed with all-lead shot averaged 0.64 ppm, and 0.28 ppm in ducks given lead-iron shot. Lead residues in livers and kidneys of females given all-lead shot were significantly higher than in males. In both dosed groups, lead levels in wingbones of females were about 10 times those in males, and were significantly correlated with the number of eggs laid after dosage. Lead levels in contents and shells of eggs laid by hens dosed with all-lead shot were about twice those in eggs laid by hens dosed with lead-iron shot. Eggshells were found to best reflect levels of lead in the blood. Our results indicate that mallards maintained on a balanced diet and dosed with one lead shot may not accumulate extremely high lead levels in the liver and kidney. However, extremely high lead deposition may result in the bone of laying hens after ingesting sublethal amounts of lead shot as a result of mobilization of calcium from the bone during eggshell formation.

Downscaling wind and wavefields for 21st century coastal flood hazard projections in a region of complex terrain

USGS Publications Warehouse

O'Neill, Andrea; Erikson, Li; Barnard, Patrick

2017-01-01

While global climate models (GCMs) provide useful projections of near-surface wind vectors into the 21st century, resolution is not sufficient enough for use in regional wave modeling. Statistically downscaled GCM projections from Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogues provide daily averaged near-surface winds at an appropriate spatial resolution for wave modeling within the orographically complex region of San Francisco Bay, but greater resolution in time is needed to capture the peak of storm events. Short-duration high wind speeds, on the order of hours, are usually excluded in statistically downscaled climate models and are of key importance in wave and subsequent coastal flood modeling. Here we present a temporal downscaling approach, similar to constructed analogues, for near-surface winds suitable for use in local wave models and evaluate changes in wind and wave conditions for the 21st century. Reconstructed hindcast winds (1975–2004) recreate important extreme wind values within San Francisco Bay. A computationally efficient method for simulating wave heights over long time periods was used to screen for extreme events. Wave hindcasts show resultant maximum wave heights of 2.2 m possible within the Bay. Changes in extreme over-water wind speeds suggest contrasting trends within the different regions of San Francisco Bay, but 21th century projections show little change in the overall magnitude of extreme winds and locally generated waves.

Changes in grassland plant composition explain 2011 drought-triggered legacy effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, X.; Polley, W.; Hofmockel, K. S.; Wilsey, B. J.

2016-12-01

There is widespread recognition that extreme droughts can have profound direct consequences for terrestrial ecosystems, but it is poorly known how common drought legacies are and what ecological factors are associated with them. Legacies are found when ecosystem functioning is below what is expected based on precipitation levels in the time period after a perturbation has ended. Here, we tested for legacies after an extreme drought in pure native and exotic experimental communities in central Texas in a long-term experiment. An extreme drought in 2011 decreased aboveground biomass (AGB) by 92 % and triggered species reorganization that led to a drought legacy in rain-use efficiency (RUE, biomass production per unit of rainfall) that lasted an average of 20 months and 48 months in exotic and native communities, respectively. Across plots within community types, reductions in RUE (DRUE) were smallest in native communities with a high proportion of C3 forb biomass and in exotic communities with a low proportion of short grass biomass. Our results indicate that the 2011 drought exerted differential impacts on plant functional groups and altered plant community composition to the extent that, RUE, an ecosystem function, shifted with possible long-term repercussions.

Extremely high wall-shear stress events in a turbulent boundary layer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pan, Chong; Kwon, Yongseok

2018-04-01

The present work studies the fluctuating characteristics of the streamwise wall-shear stress in a DNS of a turbulent boundary layer at Re τ =1500 from a structural view. The two-dimensional field of the fluctuating friction velocity u‧ τ (x,z) is decomposed into the large- and small-scale components via a recently proposed scale separation algorithm, Quasi-bivariate Variational Mode Decomposition (QB-VMD). Both components are found to be dominated by streak-like structures, which can be regarded as the wall signature of the inner-layer streaks and the outer-layer LSMs, respectively. Extreme positive/negative wall-shear stress fluctuation events are detected in the large-scale component. The former’s occurrence frequency is nearly one order of magnitude higher than the latter; therefore, they contribute a significant portion of the long tail of the wall-shear stress distribution. Both two-point correlations and conditional averages show that these extreme positive wall-shear stress events are embedded in the large-scale positive u‧ τ streaks. They seem to be formed by near-wall ‘splatting’ process, which are related to strong finger-like sweeping (Q4) events originated from the outer-layer positive LSMs.

Adaptation of eastern whitepine provenances to planting sites

Treesearch

Maurice E., Jr. Demeritt; Peter W. Garrett

1996-01-01

Eastern white pine provenances from the extreme limits of the natural range of this species are changing from above- and below-average stability to average stability for height growth with increasing age. The regression method is useful for evaluating the stability of provenance to planting sites. The same general conclusions are reached for the performance at...

Average Nuclear Potentials from Selfconsistent Semiclassical Calculations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bartel, J.

1999-03-01

Using the selfconsistent semiclassical Extended Thomas-Fermi (ETF) method up to 4th order in connection with Skyrme forces it is demonstrated that the neutron and proton average potentials obtained using the semiclassical functionals τ (ETF)[ρ] and vec {J}(ETF)[ρ] reproduce the corresponding Hartree-Fock fields extremely well, except for shell oscillations in the nuclear center.

Warmer weather as a risk factor for hospitalisations due to urinary tract infections.

PubMed

Simmering, J E; Cavanaugh, J E; Polgreen, L A; Polgreen, P M

2018-02-01

The incidence of urinary tract infections (UTIs) is seasonal, and this seasonality may be explained by changes in weather, specifically, temperature. Using data from the Nationwide Inpatient Sample, we identified the geographic location for 581 813 hospital admissions with the primary diagnosis of a UTI and 56 630 773 non-UTI hospitalisations in the United States. Next, we used data from the National Climatic Data Center to estimate the monthly average temperature for each location. Using a case-control design, we modelled the odds of a hospital admission having a primary diagnosis of UTI as a function of demographics, payer, location, patient severity, admission month, year and the average temperature for the admission month. We found, after controlling for patient factors and month of admission, the odds of a UTI diagnosis increased with higher temperatures in a dose-dependent manner. For example, relative to months with average temperatures of 5-7.5 °C, an admission in a month with an average temperature of 27.5-30 °C has 20% higher odds of a primary diagnosis of UTI. However, in months with extremely high average temperatures (above 30 °C), the odds of a UTI admissions decrease, perhaps due to changes in behaviour. Thus, at a population level, UTI-related hospitalisations are associated with warmer weather.

Reanalysis Data Evaluation to Study Temperature Extremes in Siberia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shulgina, T. M.; Gordov, E. P.

2014-12-01

Ongoing global climate changes are strongly pronounced in Siberia by significant warming in the 2nd half of 20th century and recent extreme events such as 2010 heat wave and 2013 flood in Russia's Far East. To improve our understanding of observed climate extremes and to provide to regional decision makers the reliable scientifically based information with high special and temporal resolution on climate state, we need to operate with accurate meteorological data in our study. However, from available 231 stations across Siberia only 130 of them present the homogeneous daily temperature time series. Sparse, station network, especially in high latitudes, force us to use simulated reanalysis data. However those might differ from observations. To obtain reliable information on temperature extreme "hot spots" in Siberia we have compared daily temperatures form ERA-40, ERA Interim, JRA-25, JRA-55, NCEP/DOE, MERRA Reanalysis, HadEX2 and GHCNDEX gridded datasets with observations from RIHMI-WDC/CDIAC dataset for overlap period 1981-2000. Data agreement was estimated at station coordinates to which reanalysis data were interpolated using modified Shepard method. Comparison of averaged over 20 year annual mean temperatures shows general agreement for Siberia excepting Baikal region, where reanalyses significantly underestimate observed temperature behavior. The annual temperatures closest to observed one were obtained from ERA-40 and ERA Interim. Furthermore, t-test results show homogeneity of these datasets, which allows one to combine them for long term time series analysis. In particular, we compared the combined data with observations for percentile-based extreme indices. In Western Siberia reanalysis and gridded data accurately reproduce observed daily max/min temperatures. For East Siberia, Lake Baikal area, ERA Interim data slightly underestimates TN90p and TX90p values. Results obtained allows regional decision-makers to get required high spatial resolution (0,25°×0,25°) climatic information products from the combined ERA data. The authors acknowledge partial financial support for this research from the RFBR (13-05-12034, 14-05-00502), SB RAS Integration projects (131, VIII.80.2.1.) and grant of the President of RF (№ 181).

Increasing extreme water level flood risk as a result of future sea-level rise: A case study on a coastal city in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, A.; Wu, S.

2016-12-01

Extreme water levels, caused by the joint occurrence of storm surges and high tides, always lead to super floods along coastlines. In the context of climate change, this study explored the impact of future sea-level rise on the flood risk of extreme water levels. Using Rongcheng City in Shandong Province, China as a case study, flooded area, expected direct damage losses, and affected population and GDP were assessed for 2050 and 2100 under three greenhouse gas concentration Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios, 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5. Results indicate that, as a result of sea-level rise induced by climate change, the flooded areas of Rongcheng City would increase by 3.23% to 10.64% in 2050 and by as much as 4.98% to 19.87% in 2100, compared with current recurrence periods. Residential land and farmland are at greatest risk of flooding in terms of exposure and losses than other land-use types, and under a high degree RCP 8.5 scenario, expected damage losses would be between 59.84 billion and 86.45 billion in 2050. Results show that the increase in total direct damage losses would reach an average of 60% in 2100 as a result of a 0.82 m sea-level rise. Similarly, affected population and GDP would increase by between 4.95% and 13.87% and between 3.66% and 10.95% in 2050, and by as much as 7.69% to 29.01% and 5.30% to 20.50% in 2100. This study shows that sea-level rise significantly shortens recurrence periods of extreme water levels, makes extreme flood events more frequent, and exacerbates the risk of future flooding. Our results suggest that, if there is no adaptation, sea-level rise will greatly increase the risk of flooding and severely impact human habitability along coastlines.

Identifying Patterns in Extreme Precipitation Risk and the Related Impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schroeer, K.; Tye, M. R.

2017-12-01

Extreme precipitation can harm human life and assets through flooding, hail, landslides, or debris flows. Flood risk assessments typically concentrate on river or mountain torrent channels, using water depth, flow velocity, and/or sediment deposition to quantify the risk. In addition, extreme events with high recurrence intervals are often the main focus. However, damages from short-term and localized convective showers often occur away from watercourses. Also, damages from more frequent small scale extremes, although usually less disastrous, can accumulate to considerable financial burdens. Extreme convective precipitation is expected to intensify in a warmer climate, and vulnerability patterns might change in tandem with changes in the character of precipitation and flood types. This has consequences for adaptation planners who want to establish effective protection measures and reduce the cost from natural hazards. Here we merge hydrological and exposure data to identify patterns of risk under varying synoptic conditions. Exposure is calculated from a database of 76k damage claims reported to the national disaster fund in 480 municipalities in south eastern Austria from 1990-2015. Hydrological data comprise sub-daily precipitation (59 gauges) and streamflow (62 gauges) observations. We use synoptic circulation types to identify typical precipitation patterns. They indicate the character of precipitation even if a gauge is not in close proximity, facilitating potential future research with regional climate model data. Results show that more claims are reported under synoptic conditions favouring convective precipitation (on average 1.5-3 times more than on other days). For agrarian municipalities, convective precipitation damages are among the costliest after long low-intensity precipitation events. In contrast, Alpine communities are particularly vulnerable to convective high-intensity rainfall. In addition to possible observational error, uncertainty is present in damage reporting errors, claims from private insurers and adaptation effects after damaging events. As for the latter, preliminary results indicate that investments regularly occur after big events, which may skew subsequent damage claims. Their effectiveness, though, needs to be analyzed in future research.

Precipitation response to solar geoengineering in a high-resolution tropical-cyclone permitting coupled general circulation model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Irvine, P. J.; Keith, D.; Dykema, J. A.; Vecchi, G. A.; Horowitz, L. W.

2016-12-01

Solar geoengineering may limit or even halt the rise in global-average surface temperatures. Evidence from the geoMIP model intercomparison project shows that idealized geoengineering can greatly reduce temperature changes on a region-by-region basis. If solar geoengineering is used to hold radiative forcing or surface temperatures constant in the face of rising CO2, then the global evaporation and precipitation rates will be reduced below pre-industrial. The spartial and frequency distribution of the precipitation response is, however, much less well understood. There is limited evidence that solar geoengineering may reduce extreme precipitation events more that it reduces mean precipitation, but that evidence is based on relatively course resolution models that may to a poor job representing the distribution of extreme precipitation in the current climate. The response of global and regional climate, as well as tropical cyclone (TC) activity, to increasing solar geoengineering is explored through experiments with climate models spanning a broad range of atmospheric resolutions. Solar geoengineering is represented by an idealized adjustment of the solar constant that roughly halves the rate of increase in radiative forcing in a scenario with increasing CO2 concentration. The coarsest resolution model has approximately a 2-degree global resolution, representative of the typical resolution of past GCMs used to explore global response to CO2 increase, and its response is compared to that of two tropical cyclone permitting GCMs of approximately 0.5 and 0.25 degree resolution (FLOR and HiFLOR). The models have exactly the same ocean and sea-ice components, as well as the same parameterizations and parameter settings. These high-resolution models are used for real-time seasonal prediction, providing a unified framework for seasonal-to-multidecadal climate modeling. We assess the extreme precipitation response, comparing the frequency distribution of extreme events with and without solar geoengineering. We compare our results to two prior studies of the response of climate extremes to solar geoengineering.

Comparing Satellite Rainfall Estimates with Rain-Gauge Data: Optimal Strategies Suggested by a Spectral Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bell, Thomas L.; Kundu, Prasun K.; Lau, William K. M. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

Validation of satellite remote-sensing methods for estimating rainfall against rain-gauge data is attractive because of the direct nature of the rain-gauge measurements. Comparisons of satellite estimates to rain-gauge data are difficult, however, because of the extreme variability of rain and the fact that satellites view large areas over a short time while rain gauges monitor small areas continuously. In this paper, a statistical model of rainfall variability developed for studies of sampling error in averages of satellite data is used to examine the impact of spatial and temporal averaging of satellite and gauge data on intercomparison results. The model parameters were derived from radar observations of rain, but the model appears to capture many of the characteristics of rain-gauge data as well. The model predicts that many months of data from areas containing a few gauges are required to validate satellite estimates over the areas, and that the areas should be of the order of several hundred km in diameter. Over gauge arrays of sufficiently high density, the optimal areas and averaging times are reduced. The possibility of using time-weighted averages of gauge data is explored.

Spatial variability in the trends in extreme storm surges and weekly-scale high water levels in the eastern Baltic Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soomere, Tarmo; Pindsoo, Katri

2016-03-01

We address the possibilities of a separation of the overall increasing trend in maximum water levels of semi-enclosed water bodies into associated trends in the heights of local storm surges and basin-scale components of the water level based on recorded and modelled local water level time series. The test area is the Baltic Sea. Sequences of strong storms may substantially increase its water volume and raise the average sea level by almost 1 m for a few weeks. Such events are singled out from the water level time series using a weekly-scale average. The trends in the annual maxima of the weekly average have an almost constant value along the entire eastern Baltic Sea coast for averaging intervals longer than 4 days. Their slopes are ~4 cm/decade for 8-day running average and decrease with an increase of the averaging interval. The trends for maxima of local storm surge heights represent almost the entire spatial variability in the water level maxima. Their slopes vary from almost zero for the open Baltic Proper coast up to 5-7 cm/decade in the eastern Gulf of Finland and Gulf of Riga. This pattern suggests that an increase in wind speed in strong storms is unlikely in this area but storm duration may have increased and wind direction may have rotated.

Linear-constraint wavefront control for exoplanet coronagraphic imaging systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, He; Eldorado Riggs, A. J.; Kasdin, N. Jeremy; Vanderbei, Robert J.; Groff, Tyler Dean

2017-01-01

A coronagraph is a leading technology for achieving high-contrast imaging of exoplanets in a space telescope. It uses a system of several masks to modify the diffraction and achieve extremely high contrast in the image plane around target stars. However, coronagraphic imaging systems are very sensitive to optical aberrations, so wavefront correction using deformable mirrors (DMs) is necessary to avoid contrast degradation in the image plane. Electric field conjugation (EFC) and Stroke minimization (SM) are two primary high-contrast wavefront controllers explored in the past decade. EFC minimizes the average contrast in the search areas while regularizing the strength of the control inputs. Stroke minimization calculates the minimum DM commands under the constraint that a target average contrast is achieved. Recently in the High Contrast Imaging Lab at Princeton University (HCIL), a new linear-constraint wavefront controller based on stroke minimization was developed and demonstrated using numerical simulation. Instead of only constraining the average contrast over the entire search area, the new controller constrains the electric field of each single pixel using linear programming, which could led to significant increases in speed of the wavefront correction and also create more uniform dark holes. As a follow-up of this work, another linear-constraint controller modified from EFC is demonstrated theoretically and numerically and the lab verification of the linear-constraint controllers is reported. Based on the simulation and lab results, the pros and cons of linear-constraint controllers are carefully compared with EFC and stroke minimization.

Primary (de novo) dedifferentiated liposarcoma in the extremities: a multi-institution Tohoku Musculoskeletal Tumor Society study of 18 cases in northern Japan.

PubMed

Okada, Kyoji; Hasegawa, Tadashi; Kawai, Akira; Ogose, Akira; Nishida, Jun; Yanagisawa, Michiro; Morita, Tetsuro; Tajino, Takahiro; Tsuchiya, Takashi

2011-09-01

Dedifferentiated liposarcomas usually occur in the retroperitoneal space and relatively rarely in the extremities. We identified 18 patients with primary dedifferentiated liposarcoma in the extremities from the files of Tohoku Musculoskeletal Tumor Society and analyzed demographics, histologic findings, treatments and prognostic factors. The average follow-up period was 58 months. The subjects were 12 men and 6 women with a mean age of 65 years. All tumors were in the thigh. Nine patients noticed a rapid enlargement of the long-standing tumor. Histologic subtypes of the dedifferentiated area were undifferentiated pleomorphic sarcoma (n = 12), osteosarcoma (n = 2), rhabdomyosarcoma (n = 2), leiomyosarcoma (n = 1) and malignant peripheral nerve sheath tumor (n = 1). In the patient with rhabdomyosarcoma-like dedifferentiated area, extensive necrosis was observed after the preoperative chemotherapy. One patient who underwent marginal excision developed a local recurrence, but inadequate surgical margin was not associated with a risk of local recurrence. Three patients had lung metastasis at initial presentation, and four other patients developed lung metastases during the follow-up period. The overall survival rate was 61.1% at 5 years. On univariate analyses, large size of the dedifferentiated area (>8 cm), high MIB-1-labeling index (>30%) for the dedifferentiated area and lung metastasis at initial presentation were significantly associated with poor prognosis. Primary dedifferentiated liposarcoma in the extremities predominantly occurred in the thigh and a rapid enlargement of long-standing tumors was a characteristic symptom. Although the local behavior of these tumors was less aggressive than that of retroperitoneal dedifferentiated liposarcomas, they had a relatively high metastatic potential.

Assessing the features of extreme smog in China and the differentiated treatment strategy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deng, Lu; Zhang, Zhengjun

2018-01-01

Extreme smog can have potentially harmful effects on human health, the economy and daily life. However, the average (mean) values do not provide strategically useful information on the hazard analysis and control of extreme smog. This article investigates China's smog extremes by applying extreme value analysis to hourly PM2.5 data from 2014 to 2016 obtained from monitoring stations across China. By fitting a generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution to exceedances over a station-specific extreme smog level at each monitoring location, all study stations are grouped into eight different categories based on the estimated mean and shape parameter values of fitted GEV distributions. The extreme features characterized by the mean of the fitted extreme value distribution, the maximum frequency and the tail index of extreme smog at each location are analysed. These features can provide useful information for central/local government to conduct differentiated treatments in cities within different categories and conduct similar prevention goals and control strategies among those cities belonging to the same category in a range of areas. Furthermore, hazardous hours, breaking probability and the 1-year return level of each station are demonstrated by category, based on which the future control and reduction targets of extreme smog are proposed for the cities of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei as an example.

Low geomagnetic field intensity in the Matuyama Chron: palaeomagnetic study of a lava sequence from Afar depression, East Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahn, Hyeon-Seon; Kidane, Tesfaye; Yamamoto, Yuhji; Otofuji, Yo-ichiro

2016-01-01

Palaeointensity variation is investigated for an inferred time period spanning from 2.34 to 1.96 Ma. Twenty-nine consecutive lava flows are sampled along cliffs 350 m high generated by normal faulting on the Dobi section of Afar depression, Ethiopia. Magnetostratigraphy and K-Ar measurements indicate a lava sequence of R-N-R-N geomagnetic field polarities in ascending order; the lower normal polarity is identified as the Réunion Subchron. Reliability of palaeomagnetic data is ascertained through careful thermal demagnetization and by the reversal test. The Tsunakawa-Shaw method yielded 70 successful palaeointensity results from 24 lava flows and gave 11 acceptable mean palaeointensities. Reliability in palaeointensity data is ascertained by the similar values obtained by the IZZI-Thellier method and thus 11 reliable mean values are obtained from our combined results. After the older reverse polarity with the field intensity of 19.6 ± 7.8 μT, an extremely low palaeointensity period with an average of 6.4 μT is shown to occur prior to the Réunion Subchron. During the Réunion Subchron, the dipole field strength is shown to have returned to an average of 19.5 μT, followed by second extreme low of 3.6 μT and rejuvenation with 17.1 ± 5.3 μT in the younger reverse polarity. This `W-shape' palaeointensity variation is characterized by occurrences of two extremely weak fields lower than 8 μT prior to and during the Réunion Subchron and a relatively weak time-averaged field of approximately 15 μT. This feature is also found in sedimentary cores from the Ontong Java Plateau and the north Atlantic, indicative of a possibly global geomagnetic field phenomenon rather than a local effect on Ethiopia. Furthermore, we estimate a weak virtual axial dipole moment of 3.66 (±1.85) × 1022 Am2 during early stage of the Matuyama Chron (inferred time period of 2.34-1.96 Ma).

Draft genome sequence of the extremely halophilic archaeon Haladaptatus cibarius type strain D43(T) isolated from fermented seafood.

PubMed

Lee, Hae-Won; Kim, Dae-Won; Lee, Mi-Hwa; Kim, Byung-Yong; Cho, Yong-Joon; Yim, Kyung June; Song, Hye Seon; Rhee, Jin-Kyu; Seo, Myung-Ji; Choi, Hak-Jong; Choi, Jong-Soon; Lee, Dong-Gi; Yoon, Changmann; Nam, Young-Do; Roh, Seong Woon

2015-01-01

An extremely halophilic archaeon, Haladaptatus cibarius D43(T), was isolated from traditional Korean salt-rich fermented seafood. Strain D43(T) shows the highest 16S rRNA gene sequence similarity (98.7 %) with Haladaptatus litoreus RO1-28(T), is Gram-negative staining, motile, and extremely halophilic. Despite potential industrial applications of extremely halophilic archaea, their genome characteristics remain obscure. Here, we describe the whole genome sequence and annotated features of strain D43(T). The 3,926,724 bp genome includes 4,092 protein-coding and 57 RNA genes (including 6 rRNA and 49 tRNA genes) with an average G + C content of 57.76 %.

Extreme drought alters frequency and reproductive success of floaters in Willow Flycatchers

USGS Publications Warehouse

Theimer, Tad; Sogge, Mark K.; Cardinal, Suzanne N.; Durst, Scott L.; Paxton, Eben H.

2018-01-01

Changes in habitat quality, including those caused by extreme events like droughts and floods, could alter costs and benefits of territoriality and thereby the prevalence and reproductive consequences for individuals capable of breeding that do not do so (floaters). We studied floating behavior in a population of Southwestern Willow Flycatchers (Empidonax traillii extimus) in central Arizona during one year of extreme drought, one year of lake inundation, and three years of near average precipitation. In all years, most floaters were second year (SY) males, and most subsequently settled outside of the patch where they were detected in the floating year, suggesting that floaters did not “queue” at high-quality territories in order to achieve higher reproductive success in subsequent years. Instead, cohorts that floated in non-drought years had lower apparent survival and lower reproductive success compared to territorial birds. In the extreme drought year, however, the number of floaters was 1.5 times greater than in all other years combined, more females floated, and apparent survival and mean annual productivity in subsequent years was higher for males that floated in that year than for those that were territorial. Inundation of habitat due to rising reservoir levels did not result in an increase in floaters because many birds nested in inundated areas where trees projected above the water so that the relative amount of available habitat was not reduced to the extent habitat models predicted. Overall, our results indicate that the prevalence and reproductive and demographic consequences of floating can change under extreme climatic events like severe drought.

Extreme heat reduces and shifts United States premium wine production in the 21st century

PubMed Central

White, M. A.; Diffenbaugh, N. S.; Jones, G. V.; Pal, J. S.; Giorgi, F.

2006-01-01

Premium wine production is limited to regions climatically conducive to growing grapes with balanced composition and varietal typicity. Three central climatic conditions are required: (i) adequate heat accumulation; (ii) low risk of severe frost damage; and (iii) the absence of extreme heat. Although wine production is possible in an extensive climatic range, the highest-quality wines require a delicate balance among these three conditions. Although historical and projected average temperature changes are known to influence global wine quality, the potential future response of wine-producing regions to spatially heterogeneous changes in extreme events is largely unknown. Here, by using a high-resolution regional climate model forced by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emission Scenarios A2 greenhouse gas emission scenario, we estimate that potential premium winegrape production area in the conterminous United States could decline by up to 81% by the late 21st century. While increases in heat accumulation will shift wine production to warmer climate varieties and/or lower-quality wines, and frost constraints will be reduced, increases in the frequency of extreme hot days (>35°C) in the growing season are projected to eliminate winegrape production in many areas of the United States. Furthermore, grape and wine production will likely be restricted to a narrow West Coast region and the Northwest and Northeast, areas currently facing challenges related to excess moisture. Our results not only imply large changes for the premium wine industry, but also highlight the importance of incorporating fine-scale processes and extreme events in climate-change impact studies. PMID:16840557

Influences of extreme weather, climate and pesticide use on invertebrates in cereal fields over 42 years.

PubMed

Ewald, Julie A; Wheatley, Christopher J; Aebischer, Nicholas J; Moreby, Stephen J; Duffield, Simon J; Crick, Humphrey Q P; Morecroft, Michael B

2015-11-01

Cereal fields are central to balancing food production and environmental health in the face of climate change. Within them, invertebrates provide key ecosystem services. Using 42 years of monitoring data collected in southern England, we investigated the sensitivity and resilience of invertebrates in cereal fields to extreme weather events and examined the effect of long-term changes in temperature, rainfall and pesticide use on invertebrate abundance. Of the 26 invertebrate groups examined, eleven proved sensitive to extreme weather events. Average abundance increased in hot/dry years and decreased in cold/wet years for Araneae, Cicadellidae, adult Heteroptera, Thysanoptera, Braconidae, Enicmus and Lathridiidae. The average abundance of Delphacidae, Cryptophagidae and Mycetophilidae increased in both hot/dry and cold/wet years relative to other years. The abundance of all 10 groups usually returned to their long-term trend within a year after the extreme event. For five of them, sensitivity to cold/wet events was lowest (translating into higher abundances) at locations with a westerly aspect. Some long-term trends in invertebrate abundance correlated with temperature and rainfall, indicating that climate change may affect them. However, pesticide use was more important in explaining the trends, suggesting that reduced pesticide use would mitigate the effects of climate change. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Retrospective Review of Air Transportation Use for Upper Extremity Amputations at a Level-1 Trauma Center.

PubMed

Grantham, W Jeffrey; To, Philip; Watson, Jeffry T; Brywczynski, Jeremy; Lee, Donald H

2016-08-01

Air transportation to tertiary care centers of patients with upper extremity amputations has been utilized in hopes of reducing the time to potential replantation; however, this mode of transportation is expensive and not all patients will undergo replantation. The purpose of this study is to review the appropriateness and cost of air transportation in upper extremity amputations. Consecutive patients transported by aircraft with upper extremity amputations in a 7-year period at a level-1 trauma center were retrospectively reviewed. The distance traveled was recorded, along with the times of the injury, referral, transportation duration, arrival, and start of the operation. The results of the transfer were defined as replantation or revision amputation. Overall, 47 patients were identified with 43 patients going to the operating room, but only 14 patients (30%) undergoing replantation. Patients arrived at the tertiary hand surgery center with a mean time of 182.3 minutes following the injury, which includes 105.2 minutes of transportation time. The average distance traveled was 105.4 miles (range, 22-353 miles). The time before surgery of those who underwent replantation was 154.6 minutes. The average cost of transportation was $20,482. Air transportation for isolated upper extremity amputations is costly and is not usually the determining factor for replantation. The type of injury and patients' expectations often dictate the outcome, and these may be better determined at the time of referral with use of telecommunication photos, discussion with a hand surgeon, and patient counseling. III.

Dry seasons identified in oak tree-ring chronology in the Czech Lands over the last millennium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dobrovolny, Petr; Brazdil, Rudolf; Büntgen, Ulf; Rybnicek, Michal; Kolar, Tomas; Reznickova, Ladislava; Valasek, Hubert; Kotyza, Oldrich

2015-04-01

There is growing evidence on amplification of hydrological regimes as a consequence of rising temperatures, increase in evaporation and changes in circulation patterns. These processes may be responsible for higher probability of hydroclimatic extremes occurrence in regional scale. Extreme events such as floods or droughts are rare from their definition and for better understanding of possible changes in the frequency and intensity of their occurrence, long-term proxy archives may be analysed. Recently several tree ring width chronologies were compiled from hardwood species occurring in lowland positions and their analysis proved that they are moisture-sensitive and suitable for hydroclimate reconstructions. Here, we introduce a new oak (Quercus sp) ring width (RW) dataset for the Czech Republic and the last 1250 years. We explain the process of oak chronology standardization that was based on several only slightly different de-trending techniques and subsequent chronology development steps. We hypothesize that the most severe RW increment reductions (negative extremes) reflect extremely dry spring-summer conditions. Negative extremes were assigned for years in which transformed oak RWs were lower than the minus 1.5 standard deviation. To verify our hypothesis, we compare typical climatic conditions in negative extreme years with climatology of the reference period 1961-1990. Comparison was done for various instrumental measurements (1805-2012), existing proxy reconstructions (1500-1804) and also for documentary evidence from historical archives (before 1500). We found that years of negative extremes are characterized with distinctly above average spring (MAM) and summer (JJA) air temperatures and below average precipitation amounts. Typical sea level pressure spatial distribution in those years shows positive pressure anomaly over British Isles and Northern Sea, the pattern that synoptically corresponds to blocking anticyclone bringing to Central Europe warm air from SW and low precipitation totals with higher probability of drought occurrence. Our results provide consistent physical explanation of extremely dry seasons occurring in Central Europe. However, direct comparisons of individual RW extreme seasons with existing documentary evidence show the complexity the problem as some extremes identified in oak RW chronology were not confirmed in documentary archives and vice versa. We discuss possible causes of such differences related to the fact that various proxies may have problems to record real intensity or duration of extreme events e.g. due to non-linear response of proxy data to climate drivers or due to shift in seasonality.

SHOULDER RANGE OF MOTION, PITCH COUNT, AND INJURIES AMONG INTERSCHOLASTIC FEMALE SOFTBALL PITCHERS: A DESCRIPTIVE STUDY

PubMed Central

Michener, Lori A.; Ellenbecker, Todd S.; Rauh, Mitchell J.

2012-01-01

Background/Purpose: Injury rates for softball players are similar to baseball players yet information regarding risk factors, pitching, and physical characteristics for high school windmill softball pitchers is limited. This information is needed to guide prevention, training, and rehabilitation efforts. The purpose of this study was to report descriptive data regarding the physical characteristics and pitching volume experienced by high school softball pitchers during one academic season. A secondary aim was to track and describe upper extremity injuries suffered by high school softball pitchers throughout the course of the 2009 season. Methods: Twelve uninjured female softball pitchers (13‐18y) from 5 Greenville, South Carolina high schools participated. Prior to the 2009 season, the pitchers' shoulder internal, external, total arc of rotation and horizontal adduction PROM was measured. During the 10‐week season, aggregate pitch counts (pitch volume) and occurrence of upper extremity injury were tracked for each pitcher. Results: Mean preseason internal, external, and total arc of rotation PROM was observed to be similar between the pitchers' dominant and non‐dominant shoulders. The PROM measures of horizontal abduction (HA) appear to demonstrate a side‐to‐side difference with less HA on the dominant arm of the pitchers who were examined. Subjects threw in an average of 10.1 games (±4.9) during the season. Six pitchers threw in 60% or more of the team's games and 3 of 12 pitchers pitched less than 25% of games. Pitchers averaged 61.8 pitches per game (±31.5) and 745.8 (±506.4) per season. Pitch count data did not appear to be different between injured and non‐injured pitchers. Conclusions: Knowledge of pitch volume can be used to prepare windmill softball pitchers for the seasonal stresses, guide establishment of goals when recovering from injury, or assist in training for an upcoming season. Further research is needed to examine larger samples of pitchers over multiple seasons and years. Level of Evidence: III PMID:23091788

Localized Multi-Model Extremes Metrics for the Fourth National Climate Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thompson, T. R.; Kunkel, K.; Stevens, L. E.; Easterling, D. R.; Biard, J.; Sun, L.

2017-12-01

We have performed localized analysis of scenario-based datasets for the Fourth National Climate Assessment (NCA4). These datasets include CMIP5-based Localized Constructed Analogs (LOCA) downscaled simulations at daily temporal resolution and 1/16th-degree spatial resolution. Over 45 temperature and precipitation extremes metrics have been processed using LOCA data, including threshold, percentile, and degree-days calculations. The localized analysis calculates trends in the temperature and precipitation extremes metrics for relatively small regions such as counties, metropolitan areas, climate zones, administrative areas, or economic zones. For NCA4, we are currently addressing metropolitan areas as defined by U.S. Census Bureau Metropolitan Statistical Areas. Such localized analysis provides essential information for adaptation planning at scales relevant to local planning agencies and businesses. Nearly 30 such regions have been analyzed to date. Each locale is defined by a closed polygon that is used to extract LOCA-based extremes metrics specific to the area. For each metric, single-model data at each LOCA grid location are first averaged over several 30-year historical and future periods. Then, for each metric, the spatial average across the region is calculated using model weights based on both model independence and reproducibility of current climate conditions. The range of single-model results is also captured on the same localized basis, and then combined with the weighted ensemble average for each region and each metric. For example, Boston-area cooling degree days and maximum daily temperature is shown below for RCP8.5 (red) and RCP4.5 (blue) scenarios. We also discuss inter-regional comparison of these metrics, as well as their relevance to risk analysis for adaptation planning.

Space-time extreme wind waves: Observation and analysis of shapes and heights

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Benetazzo, Alvise; Barbariol, Francesco; Bergamasco, Filippo; Carniel, Sandro; Sclavo, Mauro

2016-04-01

We analyze here the temporal shape and the maximal height of extreme wind waves, which were obtained from an observational space-time sample of sea surface elevations during a mature and short-crested sea state (Benetazzo et al., 2015). Space-time wave data are processed to detect the largest waves of specific 3-D wave groups close to the apex of their development. First, maximal elevations of the groups are discussed within the framework of space-time (ST) extreme statistical models of random wave fields (Adler and Taylor, 2007; Benetazzo et al., 2015; Fedele, 2012). Results of ST models are also compared with observations and predictions of maxima based on time series of sea surface elevations. Second, the time profile of the extreme waves around the maximal crest height is analyzed and compared with the expectations of the linear (Boccotti, 1983) and second-order nonlinear extension (Arena, 2005) of the Quasi-Determinism (QD) theory. Main purpose is to verify to what extent, using the QD model results, one can estimate the shape and the crest-to-trough height of large waves in a random ST wave field. From the results presented, it emerges that, apart from the displacements around the crest apex, sea surface elevations of very high waves are greatly dispersed around a mean profile. Yet the QD model furnishes, on average, a fair prediction of the wave height of the maximal waves, especially when nonlinearities are taken into account. Moreover, the combination of ST and QD model predictions allow establishing, for a given sea condition, a framework for the representation of waves with very large crest heights. The results have also the potential to be implemented in a phase-averaged numerical wave model (see abstract EGU2016-14008 and Barbariol et al., 2015). - Adler, R.J., Taylor, J.E., 2007. Random fields and geometry. Springer, New York (USA), 448 pp. - Arena, F., 2005. On non-linear very large sea wave groups. Ocean Eng. 32, 1311-1331. - Barbariol, F., Alves, J.H.G.., Benetazzo, A., Bergamasco, F., Bertotti, L., Carniel, S., Cavaleri, L., Chao, Y.Y., Chawla, A., Ricchi, A., Sclavo, M., Tolman, H., 2015. Space-Time Wave Extremes in WAVEWATCH III: Implementation and Validation for the Adriatic Sea Case Study, in: 14th International Workshop on Wave Hindcasting and Forecasting. November, 8-13, Key West, Florida (USA). - Benetazzo, A., Barbariol, F., Bergamasco, F., Torsello, A., Carniel, S., Sclavo, M., 2015. Observation of extreme sea waves in a space-time ensemble. J. Phys. Oceanogr. 45, 2261-2275. - Boccotti, P., 1983. Some new results on statistical properties of wind waves. Appl. Ocean Res. 5, 134-140. - Fedele, F., 2012. Space-Time Extremes in Short-Crested Storm Seas. J. Phys. Oceanogr. 42, 1601-1615.

Relating Regional Arctic Sea Ice and climate extremes over Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ionita-Scholz, Monica; Grosfeld, Klaus; Lohmann, Gerrit; Scholz, Patrick

2016-04-01

The potential increase of temperature extremes under climate change is a major threat to society, as temperature extremes have a deep impact on environment, hydrology, agriculture, society and economy. Hence, the analysis of the mechanisms underlying their occurrence, including their relationships with the large-scale atmospheric circulation and sea ice concentration, is of major importance. At the same time, the decline in Arctic sea ice cover during the last 30 years has been widely documented and it is clear that this change is having profound impacts at regional as well as planetary scale. As such, this study aims to investigate the relation between the autumn regional sea ice concentration variability and cold winters in Europe, as identified by the numbers of cold nights (TN10p), cold days (TX10p), ice days (ID) and consecutive frost days (CFD). We analyze the relationship between Arctic sea ice variation in autumn (September-October-November) averaged over eight different Arctic regions (Barents/Kara Seas, Beaufort Sea, Chukchi/Bering Seas, Central Arctic, Greenland Sea, Labrador Sea/Baffin Bay, Laptev/East Siberian Seas and Northern Hemisphere) and variations in atmospheric circulation and climate extreme indices in the following winter season over Europe using composite map analysis. Based on the composite map analysis it is shown that the response of the winter extreme temperatures over Europe is highly correlated/connected to changes in Arctic sea ice variability. However, this signal is not symmetrical for the case of high and low sea ice years. Moreover, the response of temperatures extreme over Europe to sea ice variability over the different Arctic regions differs substantially. The regions which have the strongest impact on the extreme winter temperature over Europe are: Barents/Kara Seas, Beaufort Sea, Central Arctic and the Northern Hemisphere. For the years of high sea ice concentration in the Barents/Kara Seas there is a reduction in the number of cold nights, cold days, ice days and consecutive frost days over the western part of Europe. In the opposite case of low sea ice concentration over the Barents/Kara Seas an increase of up to 8 days/winter of cold nights and days is observed over the whole Europe and an increase of up to 4 days/winter in the number of ID and CFD is observed over the same regions. The cold winters over Europe (low sea ice years) are associated with anomalous anticyclone and the downstream development of a mid-latitude trough, which in turn favours the advection of cold air from the north, providing favourable conditions for severe winters over Europe. We suggest that these results can help to improve the seasonal predictions of winter extreme events over Europe. Due to the non-linear response to high vs. low sea ice years, the skill of the predictions might depend on the sign and amplitude of the anomalies.

Reconstruction of Extensive Soft-Tissue Defects with Concomitant Bone Defects in the Lower Extremity with the Latissimus Dorsi-Serratus Anterior-Rib Free Flap.

PubMed

Sia, Wei Tee; Xu, Germaine Guiqin; Puhaindran, Mark Edward; Tan, Bien Keem; Cheng, Mathew Hern Wang; Chew, Winston Yoon Chong

2015-07-01

The combined latissimus dorsi-serratus anterior-rib (LD-SA-rib) free flap provides a large soft-tissue flap with a vascularized bone flap through a solitary vascular pedicle in a one-stage reconstruction. Seven LD-SA-rib free flaps were performed in seven patients to reconstruct concomitant bone and extensive soft-tissue defects in the lower extremity (tibia, five; femur, one; foot, one). The patients were all male, with an average age of 34 years (range, 20-48 years). These defects were secondary to trauma in five patients and posttraumatic osteomyelitis in two patients. All flaps survived and achieved bony union. The average time to bony union was 9.4 months. Bone hypertrophy of at least 20% occurred in all flaps. All patients achieved full weight-bearing ambulation without aid at an average duration of 23.7 months. Two patients developed stress fractures of the rib flap. There was no significant donor site morbidity, except for two patients who had pleural tears during harvesting of the flap. The LD-SA-rib flap provides a large soft-tissue component and a vascularized bone flap for reconstruction of composite large soft-tissue defects with concomitant bone defects of the lower extremity in a one-stage procedure. Thieme Medical Publishers 333 Seventh Avenue, New York, NY 10001, USA.

Giant mini-clusters as possible origin of halo phenomena observed in super-families

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1985-01-01

Among 91 mini-clusters from 30 high energy Chiron-type families in Chacaltaya emulsion chambers, there were observed several extremely large multiplicity clusters in the highest energy range, far beyond the average of ordinary type clusters. Some details of microscopic observation of those giant mini-clusters in nuclear emulsion plates and some phenomenological regularity found in common among them are described. Such giant mini-clusters are possible candidates for the origin of narrow symmetric single halo phenomena in X-ray films which are frequently observed in super-families of visible energy greater than 1,000 TeV.

Automatic identification of individual killer whales.

PubMed

Brown, Judith C; Smaragdis, Paris; Nousek-McGregor, Anna

2010-09-01

Following the successful use of HMM and GMM models for classification of a set of 75 calls of northern resident killer whales into call types [Brown, J. C., and Smaragdis, P., J. Acoust. Soc. Am. 125, 221-224 (2009)], the use of these same methods has been explored for the identification of vocalizations from the same call type N2 of four individual killer whales. With an average of 20 vocalizations from each of the individuals the pairwise comparisons have an extremely high success rate of 80 to 100% and the identifications within the entire group yield around 78%.

Patterns of amino acid conservation in human and animal immunodeficiency viruses.

PubMed

Voitenko, Olga S; Dhroso, Andi; Feldmann, Anna; Korkin, Dmitry; Kalinina, Olga V

2016-09-01

Due to their high genomic variability, RNA viruses and retroviruses present a unique opportunity for detailed study of molecular evolution. Lentiviruses, with HIV being a notable example, are one of the best studied viral groups: hundreds of thousands of sequences are available together with experimentally resolved three-dimensional structures for most viral proteins. In this work, we use these data to study specific patterns of evolution of the viral proteins, and their relationship to protein interactions and immunogenicity. We propose a method for identification of two types of surface residues clusters with abnormal conservation: extremely conserved and extremely variable clusters. We identify them on the surface of proteins from HIV and other animal immunodeficiency viruses. Both types of clusters are overrepresented on the interaction interfaces of viral proteins with other proteins, nucleic acids or low molecular-weight ligands, both in the viral particle and between the virus and its host. In the immunodeficiency viruses, the interaction interfaces are not more conserved than the corresponding proteins on an average, and we show that extremely conserved clusters coincide with protein-protein interaction hotspots, predicted as the residues with the largest energetic contribution to the interaction. Extremely variable clusters have been identified here for the first time. In the HIV-1 envelope protein gp120, they overlap with known antigenic sites. These antigenic sites also contain many residues from extremely conserved clusters, hence representing a unique interacting interface enriched both in extremely conserved and in extremely variable clusters of residues. This observation may have important implication for antiretroviral vaccine development. A Python package is available at https://bioinf.mpi-inf.mpg.de/publications/viral-ppi-pred/ voitenko@mpi-inf.mpg.de or kalinina@mpi-inf.mpg.de Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

CO2 laser drives extreme ultraviolet nano-lithography — second life of mature laser technology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nowak, K. M.; Ohta, T.; Suganuma, T.; Fujimoto, J.; Mizoguchi, H.; Sumitani, A.; Endo, A.

2013-12-01

It was shown both theoretically and experimentally that nanosecond order laser pulses at 10.6 micron wavelength were superior for driving the Sn plasma extreme ultraviolet (EUV) source for nano-lithography for the reasons of higher conversion efficiency, lower production of debris and higher average power levels obtainable in CO2 media without serious problems of beam distortions and nonlinear effects occurring in competing solid-state lasers at high intensities. The renewed interest in such pulse format, wavelength, repetition rates in excess of 50 kHz and average power levels in excess of 18 kiloWatt has sparked new opportunities for a matured multi-kiloWatt CO2 laser technology. The power demand of EUV source could be only satisfied by a Master-Oscillator-Power-Amplifier system configuration, leading to a development of a new type of hybrid pulsed CO2 laser employing a whole spectrum of CO2 technology, such as fast flow systems and diffusion-cooled planar waveguide lasers, and relatively recent quantum cascade lasers. In this paper we review briefly the history of relevant pulsed CO2 laser technology and the requirements for multi-kiloWatt CO2 laser, intended for the laser-produced plasma EUV source, and present our recent advances, such as novel solid-state seeded master oscillator and efficient multi-pass amplifiers built on planar waveguide CO2 lasers.

Current data on extremities chronic osteomyelitis in southwest China: epidemiology, microbiology and therapeutic consequences.

PubMed

Wang, Xiaohua; Yu, Shengpeng; Sun, Dong; Fu, Jingshu; Wang, Shulin; Huang, Ke; Xie, Zhao

2017-11-24

The current study was designed to explore the epidemiology of extremities chronic osteomyelitis, its prognosis and the complications of the treatment methods being used in southwest China. The data from osteomyelitis patients treated at the Department of Orthopaedics, Southwest Hospital, China between May 2011 and September 2016 were collected and analysed. The study comprised 503 admitted patients, of which 416 males and 87 were females, with an average age of 40.15 ± 5.64 years. Approximately 356 cases were followed for more than 18 months; the average bone union time was 6.24 ± 0.76 months in 94.1% (335) patients, and infections were almost controlled in 93.8% patients. The rate of infection control with the induced membrane technique was higher than with the I-stage free bone graft. Iliac infection was the main complication of the induced membrane technique, and impaired joint activity was the main complication of I-stage free bone grafts. In southwest China, the incidence of haematogenous osteomyelitis, caused mainly by Staphylococcus aureus, remains very high. The speed of bone defect repair and the rate of infection control with the induced membrane technique were superior to those of I-stage free bone grafts. Internal fixation should be given priority because it offers reduced complications with no increase in the recurrence of infection.

Disease management for the diabetic foot: effectiveness of a diabetic foot prevention program to reduce amputations and hospitalizations.

PubMed

Lavery, Lawrence A; Wunderlich, Robert P; Tredwell, Jeffrey L

2005-10-01

To demonstrate the effectiveness of a diabetic foot disease management program in a managed care organization. We implemented a lower extremity disease management program consisting of screening and treatment protocols for diabetic members in a managed care organization. Screening consisted of evaluation of neuropathy, peripheral vascular disease, deformities, foot pressures, and history of lower extremity pathology. We stratified patients into low and high-risk groups, and implemented preventive or acute care protocols. Utilization was tracked for 28 months and compared to 12 months of historic data prior to implementation of the disease management program. After we implemented the disease management program, the incidence of amputations decreased 47.4% from 12.89 per 1000 diabetics per year to 6.18 (p<0.05). The number of foot-related hospital admissions decreased 37.8% from 22.86 per 1000 members per year to 14.23 (37.8%). The average inpatient length-of-stay (LOS) was reduced 21.7% from 4.75 to 3.72 days (p<0.05). In addition, there was a 69.8% reduction in the number of skilled nursing facility (SNF) admissions per 1000 members per year (Table 1) and a 38.2% reduction in the average SNF LOS from 8.72 to 6.52 days (p<0.05). A population-based screening and treatment program for the diabetic foot can dramatically reduce hospitalizations and clinical outcomes.

Extremely low frequency magnetic field measurements in buildings with transformer stations in Switzerland.

PubMed

Röösli, Martin; Jenni, Daniela; Kheifets, Leeka; Mezei, Gabor

2011-08-15

The aim of this study was to evaluate an exposure assessment method that classifies apartments in three exposure categories of extremely low frequency magnetic fields (ELF-MF) based on the location of the apartment relative to the transformer room. We completed measurements in 39 apartments in 18 buildings. In each room of the apartments ELF-MF was concurrently measured with 5 to 6 EMDEX II meters for 10 min. Measured arithmetic mean ELF-MF was 0.59 μT in 8 apartments that were fully adjacent to a transformer room, either directly above the transformer or touching the transformer room wall-to-wall. In apartments that only partly touched the transformer room at corners or edges, average ELF-MF level was 0.14 μT. Average exposure in the remaining apartments was 0.10 μT. Kappa coefficient for exposure classification was 0.64 (95%-CI: 0.45-0.82) if only fully adjacent apartments were considered as highly exposed (>0.4 μT). We found a distinct ELF-MF exposure gradient in buildings with transformer. Exposure classification based on the location of the apartment relative to the transformer room appears feasible. Such an approach considerably reduces effort for exposure assessment and may be used to eliminate selection bias in future epidemiologic studies. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Leukaemia, brain tumours and exposure to extremely low frequency magnetic fields: cohort study of Swiss railway employees

PubMed Central

Röösli, Martin; Lörtscher, Manfred; Egger, Matthias; Pfluger, Dominik; Schreier, Nadja; Lörtscher, Emanuel; Locher, Peter; Spoerri, Adrian; Minder, Christoph

2007-01-01

Aims To investigate the relationship between extremely low frequency magnetic field (ELF‐MF) exposure and mortality from leukaemia and brain tumour in a cohort of Swiss railway workers. Methods 20 141 Swiss railway employees with 464 129 person‐years of follow‐up between 1972 and 2002 were studied. Mortality rates for leukaemia and brain tumour of highly exposed train drivers (21 μT average annual exposure) were compared with medium and low exposed occupational groups (i.e. station masters with an average exposure of 1 μT). In addition, individual cumulative exposure was calculated from on‐site measurements and modelling of past exposures. Results The hazard ratio (HR) for leukaemia mortality of train drivers was 1.43 (95% CI 0.74 to 2.77) compared with station masters. For myeloid leukaemia the HR of train drivers was 4.74 (95% CI 1.04 to 21.60) and for Hodgkin's disease 3.29 (95% CI 0.69 to 15.63). Lymphoid leukaemia, non‐Hodgkin's disease and brain tumour mortality were not associated with magnetic field exposure. Concordant results were obtained from analyses based on individual cumulative exposure. Conclusions Some evidence of an exposure–response association was found for myeloid leukaemia and Hodgkin's disease, but not for other haematopoietic and lymphatic malignancies and brain tumours. PMID:17525094

Measuring Skew in Average Surface Roughness as a Function of Surface Preparation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stahl, Mark

2015-01-01

Characterizing surface roughness is important for predicting optical performance. Better measurement of surface roughness reduces polishing time, saves money and allows the science requirements to be better defined. This study characterized statistics of average surface roughness as a function of polishing time. Average surface roughness was measured at 81 locations using a Zygo white light interferometer at regular intervals during the polishing process. Each data set was fit to a normal and Largest Extreme Value (LEV) distribution; then tested for goodness of fit. We show that the skew in the average data changes as a function of polishing time.

Counting repetitions: an observational study of video game play in people with chronic poststroke hemiparesis.

PubMed

Peters, Denise M; McPherson, Aaron K; Fletcher, Blake; McClenaghan, Bruce A; Fritz, Stacy L

2013-09-01

The use of video gaming as a therapeutic intervention has increased in popularity; however, the number of repetitions in comparison with traditional therapy methods has yet to be investigated. The primary purpose of this study was to document and compare the number of repetitions performed while playing 1 of 2 video gaming systems for a time frame similar to that of a traditional therapy session in individuals with chronic stroke. Twelve participants with chronic stroke (mean age, 66.8 ± 8.2 years; time poststroke, 19.2 ± 15.4 months) completed video game play sessions, using either the Nintendo Wii or the Playstation 2 EyeToy. A total of 203 sessions were captured on video record; of these, 50 sessions for each gaming system were randomly selected for analysis. For each selected record, active upper and lower extremity repetitions were counted for a 36-minute segment of the recorded session. The Playstation 2 EyeToy group produced an average of 302.5 (228.1) upper extremity active movements and 189.3 (98.3) weight shifts, significantly higher than the Nintendo Wii group, which produced an average of 61.9 (65.7) upper extremity active movements and 109.7 (78.5) weight shifts. No significant differences were found in steps and other lower extremity active movements between the 2 systems. The Playstation 2 EyeToy group produced more upper extremity active movements and weight shifting movements than the Nintendo Wii group; the number and type of repetitions varied across games. Active gaming (specifically Playstation 2 EyeToy) provided more upper extremity repetitions than those reported in the literature by using traditional therapy, suggesting that it may be a modality to promote increased active movements in individuals poststroke.

Understanding the Impacts of Climate and Hydrologic Extremes on Diarrheal Diseases in Southwestern Amazon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fonseca, P. A. M.

2015-12-01

Bacterial diarrheal diseases have a high incidence rate during and after flooding episodes. In the Brazilian Amazon, flood extreme events have become more frequent, leading to high incidence rates for infant diarrhea. In this study we aimed to find a statistical association between rainfall, river levels and diarrheal diseases in children under 5, in the river Acre basin, in the State of Acre (Brazil). We also aimed to identify the time-lag and annual season of extreme rainfall and flooding in different cities in the water basin. The results using Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Satellite rainfall data show robustness of these estimates against observational stations on-ground. The Pearson coefficient correlation results (highest 0.35) indicate a time-lag, up to 4 days in three of the cities in the water-basin. In addition, a correlation was also tested between monthly accumulated rainfall and the diarrheal incidence during the rainy season (DJF). Correlation results were higher, especially in Acrelândia (0.7) and Brasiléia and Epitaciolândia (0.5). The correlation between water level monthly averages and diarrheal diseases incidence was 0.3 and 0.5 in Brasiléia and Epitaciolândia. The time-lag evidence found in this paper is critical to inform stakeholders, local populations and civil defense authorities about the time available for preventive and adaptation measures between extreme rainfall and flooding events in vulnerable cities. This study was part of a pilot application in the state of Acre of the PULSE-Brazil project (http://www.pulse-brasil.org/tool/), an interface of climate, environmental and health data to support climate adaptation. The next step of this research is to expand the analysis to other climate variables on diarrheal diseases across the whole Brazilian Amazon Basin and estimate the relative risk (RR) of a child getting sick. A statistical model will estimate RR based on the observed values and seasonal forecasts (higher accuracy for the Amazon region) will be used so the government can be prepared for extreme climate events forecasted. It is expected that these results can be helpful during and post extreme events to improve health surveillance preparedness and better allocate available results in adapting vulnerable cities to climate extreme events.

Stratospheric aerosol geoengineering

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Robock, Alan

2015-03-30

The Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project, conducting climate model experiments with standard stratospheric aerosol injection scenarios, has found that insolation reduction could keep the global average temperature constant, but global average precipitation would reduce, particularly in summer monsoon regions around the world. Temperature changes would also not be uniform; the tropics would cool, but high latitudes would warm, with continuing, but reduced sea ice and ice sheet melting. Temperature extremes would still increase, but not as much as without geoengineering. If geoengineering were halted all at once, there would be rapid temperature and precipitation increases at 5–10 times the rates frommore » gradual global warming. The prospect of geoengineering working may reduce the current drive toward reducing greenhouse gas emissions, and there are concerns about commercial or military control. Because geoengineering cannot safely address climate change, global efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and to adapt are crucial to address anthropogenic global warming.« less

Frequency and Character of Extreme Aerosol Events in the Southwestern United States: A Case Study Analysis in Arizona

PubMed Central

Lopez, David H.; Rabbani, Michael R.; Crosbie, Ewan; Raman, Aishwarya; Arellano, Avelino F.; Sorooshian, Armin

2016-01-01

This study uses more than a decade’s worth of data across Arizona to characterize the spatiotemporal distribution, frequency, and source of extreme aerosol events, defined as when the concentration of a species on a particular day exceeds that of the average plus two standard deviations for that given month. Depending on which of eight sites studied, between 5% and 7% of the total days exhibited an extreme aerosol event due to either extreme levels of PM10, PM2.5, and/or fine soil. Grand Canyon exhibited the most extreme event days (120, i.e., 7% of its total days). Fine soil is the pollutant type that most frequently impacted multiple sites at once at an extreme level. PM10, PM2.5, fine soil, non-Asian dust, and Elemental Carbon extreme events occurred most frequently in August. Nearly all Asian dust extreme events occurred between March and June. Extreme Elemental Carbon events have decreased as a function of time with statistical significance, while other pollutant categories did not show any significant change. Extreme events were most frequent for the various pollutant categories on either Wednesday or Thursday, but there was no statistically significant difference in the number of events on any particular day or on weekends versus weekdays. PMID:27088005

Causes of Glacier Melt Extremes in the Alps Since 1949

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thibert, E.; Dkengne Sielenou, P.; Vionnet, V.; Eckert, N.; Vincent, C.

2018-01-01

Recent record-breaking glacier melt values are attributable to peculiar extreme events and long-term warming trends that shift averages upward. Analyzing one of the world's longest mass balance series with extreme value statistics, we show that detrending melt anomalies makes it possible to disentangle these effects, leading to a fairer evaluation of the return period of melt extreme values such as 2003, and to characterize them by a more realistic bounded behavior. Using surface energy balance simulations, we show that three independent drivers control melt: global radiation, latent heat, and the amount of snow at the beginning of the melting season. Extremes are governed by large deviations in global radiation combined with sensible heat. Long-term trends are driven by the lengthening of melt duration due to earlier and longer-lasting melting of ice along with melt intensification caused by trends in long-wave irradiance and latent heat due to higher air moisture.

[Quality of life in ankylosing spondylitis].

PubMed

Younes, Mohamed; Jalled, Anis; Aydi, Zohra; Younes, Kaouthar; Jguirim, Mahbouba; Zrour, Saoussen; Ben Salah, Zohra; Bejia, Ismail; Touzi, Mongi; Bergaoui, Naceur

2011-04-01

Ankylosing Spondylarthritis (AS) involves by its frequency and its repercussion on the functional capacity an important handicap and deterioration of the patients quality of life. To evaluate the handicap and the quality of life during the AS and to seek the predictive factors of the deterioration of this quality of life. A prospective study relating to 50 patients recruited in the Department of Rheumatology of F. B. Hospital of Monastir during 6 months period (Mars to September 2008). The studied parameters were the quality of life evaluated by a specific sore (ASQOL) and a generic score (SF-12). Also the physical, social and economic felt handicap was evaluated using a qualitative scale. Predictive factors (clinical, biological and radiological) of the quality of life were carried out. Our patients are divided in 42 men and 8 women with an average age of 38.9 ± 10.7 years. The average duration of AS is of 11.9 ± 7.6 years. The average of ASQOL is of 11.9 ± 4 (extremes: 0- 17). The average of physical SF12 is of 29.8 ± 6 (21.7-53.2) and of mental SF-12 of 35.3 ± 6.6 (22.5-55.8). The physical, social and economic felt handicap was considered to be average or important in respectively 88%, 72% and 86% of the cases. The predictive factors of a high ASQOL (faded quality of life) are absence of occupation, high BASMI, a high number of painful articulations and high BASFI, BASDAI, BASG, BASRI and EVA total pain. The factors associated to the alteration of the quality of life according to SF-12'S are male sex, professional statute, high number of painful articulations and high BASDAI, BASFI and BASRI. Our study shows the important deterioration of the quality of life in AS patients. The existence of the predictive factors of quality of life primarily related to the functional capacity of the patients and to the disease activity implicates an early and adequate disease management in order to decrease this repercussion.

Changes in the frequency of extreme air pollution events over the Eastern United States and Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rieder, H. E.; Fiore, A. M.; Fang, Y.; Staehelin, J.

2011-12-01

Over the past few decades, thresholds for national air quality standards, intended to protect public health and welfare, have been lowered repeatedly. At the same time observations, over Europe and the Eastern U.S., demonstrate that extreme air pollution events (high O3 and PM2.5) are typically associated with stagnation events. Recent work showed that in a changing climate high air pollution events are likely to increase in frequency and duration. Within this work we examine meteorological and surface ozone observations from CASTNet over the U.S. and EMEP over Europe and "idealized" simulations with the GFDL AM3 chemistry-climate model, which isolate the role of climate change on air quality. Specifically, we examine an "idealized 1990s" simulation, forced with 20-year mean monthly climatologies for sea surface temperatures and sea ice from observations for 1981-2000, and an "idealized 2090s" simulation forced by the observed climatologies plus the multi-model mean changes in sea surface temperature and sea ice simulated by 19 IPCC AR-4 models under the A1B scenario for 2081-2100. With innovative statistical tools (empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) and statistics of extremes (EVT)), we analyze the frequency distribution of past, present and future extreme air pollution events over the Eastern United States and Europe. The upper tail of observed values at individual stations (e.g., within the CASTNet), i.e., the extremes (maximum daily 8-hour average (MDA8) O3>60ppb) are poorly described by a Gaussian distribution. However, further analysis showed that applying Peak-Over-Threshold-models, better capture the extremes and allows us to estimate return levels of pollution events above certain threshold values of interest. We next apply EOF analysis to identify regions that vary coherently within the ground-based monitoring networks. Over the United States, the first EOF obtained from the model in both the 1990s and 2090s idealized simulations identifies the Northeast as a region that varies coherently. Correlation analysis reveals that this EOF pattern is most strongly expressed in association with high surface temperature and high surface pressure conditions, consistent with previous work showing that observed O3 episodes over this area reflect the combined impacts of stagnation and increased chemical production. Next steps include the extension of this analysis applying EVT tools to the principal component time series associated with this EOF. The combination of EOF and EVT tools applied to the GFDL AM3 1990s vs. 2090s idealized simulations will enable us to quantify changes in the return levels of air pollution extremes. Therefore the combination of observational data and numerical and statistical models should allow us to identify key driving forces between high air pollution events and to estimate changes in the frequency of such events under different climate change scenarios.

Identifying women with dense breasts at high risk for interval cancer: a cohort study.

PubMed

Kerlikowske, Karla; Zhu, Weiwei; Tosteson, Anna N A; Sprague, Brian L; Tice, Jeffrey A; Lehman, Constance D; Miglioretti, Diana L

2015-05-19

Twenty-one states have laws requiring that women be notified if they have dense breasts and that they be advised to discuss supplemental imaging with their provider. To better direct discussions of supplemental imaging by determining which combinations of breast cancer risk and Breast Imaging Reporting and Data System (BI-RADS) breast density categories are associated with high interval cancer rates. Prospective cohort. Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium (BCSC) breast imaging facilities. 365,426 women aged 40 to 74 years who had 831,455 digital screening mammography examinations. BI-RADS breast density, BCSC 5-year breast cancer risk, and interval cancer rate (invasive cancer ≤12 months after a normal mammography result) per 1000 mammography examinations. High interval cancer rate was defined as more than 1 case per 1000 examinations. High interval cancer rates were observed for women with 5-year risk of 1.67% or greater and extremely dense breasts or 5-year risk of 2.50% or greater and heterogeneously dense breasts (24% of all women with dense breasts). The interval rate of advanced-stage disease was highest (>0.4 case per 1000 examinations) among women with 5-year risk of 2.50% or greater and heterogeneously or extremely dense breasts (21% of all women with dense breasts). Five-year risk was low to average (0% to 1.66%) for 51.0% of women with heterogeneously dense breasts and 52.5% with extremely dense breasts, with interval cancer rates of 0.58 to 0.63 and 0.72 to 0.89 case per 1000 examinations, respectively. The benefit of supplemental imaging was not assessed. Breast density should not be the sole criterion for deciding whether supplemental imaging is justified because not all women with dense breasts have high interval cancer rates. BCSC 5-year risk combined with BI-RADS breast density can identify women at high risk for interval cancer to inform patient-provider discussions about alternative screening strategies. National Cancer Institute.

Bioclimatic conditions of the winter months in Western Kazakhstan and their dynamics in relation to climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nyssanbayeva, Aiman S.; Cherednichenko, Alexandr V.; Cherednichenko, Vladimir S.; Abayev, Nurlan N.; Madibekov, Azamat S.

2018-03-01

The territory of West Kazakhstan is an intensively developing region. The main oil and gas fields are concentrated there. In addition, this region is well-known as a region of nomad cattle breeding. Both of industry and agriculture demand a lot of employees, working in the open air in wintertime. Severe winter conditions, primary very low temperatures, and strong winds characterize the region. In this work, we calculated and analyzed the spatial and temporal distributions of effective temperatures in the region and their dynamics due to the global warming in the last decades. To calculate the equivalent temperature (WCET) was used the method of OFCM 2003. Nowadays, it is known as a common method for similar studies. It was shown that in the observed region, WCET is significantly lower than the ambient temperature. Repeatability of WCET, corresponding to «increasing risk», «high risk» is high in the main part of the region. Global warming in the region results in returning extremely high temperatures of the air, decreasing repeatability of the average gradation of WCET approximately on 4%, but there is no any visible changing repeatability of extreme WCET. Obtained results can be used for planning any construction work in the open air and agriculture branches.

Bioclimatic conditions of the winter months in Western Kazakhstan and their dynamics in relation to climate change.

PubMed

Nyssanbayeva, Aiman S; Cherednichenko, Alexandr V; Cherednichenko, Vladimir S; Abayev, Nurlan N; Madibekov, Azamat S

2018-03-05

The territory of West Kazakhstan is an intensively developing region. The main oil and gas fields are concentrated there. In addition, this region is well-known as a region of nomad cattle breeding. Both of industry and agriculture demand a lot of employees, working in the open air in wintertime. Severe winter conditions, primary very low temperatures, and strong winds characterize the region. In this work, we calculated and analyzed the spatial and temporal distributions of effective temperatures in the region and their dynamics due to the global warming in the last decades. To calculate the equivalent temperature (WCET) was used the method of OFCM 2003. Nowadays, it is known as a common method for similar studies. It was shown that in the observed region, WCET is significantly lower than the ambient temperature. Repeatability of WCET, corresponding to «increasing risk», «high risk» is high in the main part of the region. Global warming in the region results in returning extremely high temperatures of the air, decreasing repeatability of the average gradation of WCET approximately on 4%, but there is no any visible changing repeatability of extreme WCET. Obtained results can be used for planning any construction work in the open air and agriculture branches.

Climate-driven ground-level ozone extreme in the fall over the Southeast United States

PubMed Central

Wang, Yuhang

2016-01-01

Ground-level ozone is adverse to human and vegetation health. High ground-level ozone concentrations usually occur over the United States in the summer, often referred to as the ozone season. However, observed monthly mean ozone concentrations in the southeastern United States were higher in October than July in 2010. The October ozone average in 2010 reached that of July in the past three decades (1980–2010). Our analysis shows that this extreme October ozone in 2010 over the Southeast is due in part to a dry and warm weather condition, which enhances photochemical production, air stagnation, and fire emissions. Observational evidence and modeling analysis also indicate that another significant contributor is enhanced emissions of biogenic isoprene, a major ozone precursor, from water-stressed plants under a dry and warm condition. The latter finding is corroborated by recent laboratory and field studies. This climate-induced biogenic control also explains the puzzling fact that the two extremes of high October ozone both occurred in the 2000s when anthropogenic emissions were lower than the 1980s and 1990s, in contrast to the observed decreasing trend of July ozone in the region. The occurrences of a drying and warming fall, projected by climate models, will likely lead to more active photochemistry, enhanced biogenic isoprene and fire emissions, an extension of the ozone season from summer to fall, and an increase of secondary organic aerosols in the Southeast, posing challenges to regional air quality management. PMID:27551089

Climatic variability of the column ozone over the Iranian plateau

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mousavi, Seyyed Shafi; Farajzadeh, Manuchehr; Rahimi, Yousef Ghavidel; Bidokhti, Abbasali Aliakbari

2017-06-01

This study analyzes the total ozone column (TOC) variability over the Iranian plateau (Esfahan) from 1978 to 2011. Results show that the annual average of TOC in Esfahan tends to decrease with time, which is strongly dependent on the season, with maximum values during the winter-spring months (more than 2.2 %/decade). By applying a defined threshold that includes the TOC monthly -2 σ, it is found that the maximum occurrence of low ozone events (LOEs) tends to be more frequent in the second half of year with about four-fifth of the observed LOEs (last summer, autumn, and early winter). During two cases of LOE, the tropopause height (TH) was uplifted 2-4 km with temperature of 10 °C colder than the long-term mean, and the synoptic pattern was characterized by high-pressure systems in UTLS region. The extreme LOEs were consistent with the horizontal transport of ozone-poor air toward the Iranian plateau and vertical advection in UTLS region. The former mechanism plays a primary role in formation of extreme LOEs based on the observed TOC reductions during previous days over the source regions (Sahara desert and Himalaya region). Day-to-day variations of maximum UV index during LOEs show that by a decrease in TOC 14 %, while the aerosol optical depth (AOD) in the cloudless condition reach their lowest rates (lower than 0.3), UV radiation exceeds very high and extreme levels in late winter and mid-spring, respectively.

Climate-driven ground-level ozone extreme in the fall over the Southeast United States.

PubMed

Zhang, Yuzhong; Wang, Yuhang

2016-09-06

Ground-level ozone is adverse to human and vegetation health. High ground-level ozone concentrations usually occur over the United States in the summer, often referred to as the ozone season. However, observed monthly mean ozone concentrations in the southeastern United States were higher in October than July in 2010. The October ozone average in 2010 reached that of July in the past three decades (1980-2010). Our analysis shows that this extreme October ozone in 2010 over the Southeast is due in part to a dry and warm weather condition, which enhances photochemical production, air stagnation, and fire emissions. Observational evidence and modeling analysis also indicate that another significant contributor is enhanced emissions of biogenic isoprene, a major ozone precursor, from water-stressed plants under a dry and warm condition. The latter finding is corroborated by recent laboratory and field studies. This climate-induced biogenic control also explains the puzzling fact that the two extremes of high October ozone both occurred in the 2000s when anthropogenic emissions were lower than the 1980s and 1990s, in contrast to the observed decreasing trend of July ozone in the region. The occurrences of a drying and warming fall, projected by climate models, will likely lead to more active photochemistry, enhanced biogenic isoprene and fire emissions, an extension of the ozone season from summer to fall, and an increase of secondary organic aerosols in the Southeast, posing challenges to regional air quality management.

Skiff-based Sonar/LiDAR Survey to Calibrate Reservoir Volumes for Watershed Sediment Yield Studies: Carmel River Example

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, D. P.; Kvitek, R.; Quan, S.; Iampietro, P.; Paddock, E.; Richmond, S. F.; Gomez, K.; Aiello, I. W.; Consulo, P.

2009-12-01

Models of watershed sediment yield are complicated by spatial and temporal variability of geologic substrate, land cover, and precipitation parameters. Episodic events such as ENSO cycles and severe wildfire are frequent enough to matter in the long-term average yield, and they can produce short-lived, extreme geomorphic responses. The sediment yield from extreme events is difficult to accurately capture because of the obvious dangers associated with field measurements during flood conditions, but it is critical to include extreme values for developing realistic models of rainfall-sediment yield relations, and for calculating long term average denudation rates. Dammed rivers provide a time-honored natural laboratory for quantifying average annual sediment yield and extreme-event sediment yield. While lead-line surveys of the past provided crude estimates of reservoir sediment trapping, recent advances in geospatial technology now provide unprecedented opportunities to improve volume change measurements. High-precision digital elevation models surveyed on an annual basis, or before-and-after specific rainfall-runoff events can be used to quantify relations between rainfall and sediment yield as a function of landscape parameters, including spatially explicit fire intensity. The Basin-Complex Fire of June and July 2008 resulted in moderate to severe burns in the 114 km^2 portion of the Carmel River watershed above Los Padres Dam. The US Geological Survey produced a debris flow probability/volume model for the region indicating that the reservoir could lose considerable capacity if intense enough precipitation occurred in the 2009-10 winter. Loss of Los Padres reservoir capacity has implications for endangered steelhead and red-legged frogs, and groundwater on municipal water supply. In anticipation of potentially catastrophic erosion, we produced an accurate volume calculation of the Los Padres reservoir in fall 2009, and locally monitored hillslope and fluvial processes during winter months. The pre-runoff reservoir volume was developed by collecting and merging sonar and LiDAR data from a small research skiff equipped with a high-precision positioning and attitude-correcting system. The terrestrial LiDAR data were augmented with shore-based total station positioning. Watershed monitoring included benchmarked serial stream surveys and semi-quantitative assessment of a variety of near-channel colluvial processes. Rainfall in the 2009-10 water year was not intense enough to trigger widespread debris flows of slope failure in the burned watershed, but dry ravel was apparently accelerated. The geomorphic analysis showed that sediment yield was not significantly higher during this low-rainfall year, despite the wide-spread presence of very steep, fire-impacted slopes. Because there was little to no increase in sediment yield this year, we have postponed our second reservoir survey. A predicted ENSO event that might bring very intense rains to the watershed is currently predicted for winter 2009-10.

Vision Aspects of Space Flight

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Manuel, Keith; Billica, Roger (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

Vision, being one of our most important senses, is critically important in the unique working environment of space flight. Critical evaluation of the astronauts visual system begins with pre-selection examinations resulting in an average of 65% of all medical disqualification's caused by ocular findings. With an average age of 42, approximately 60% of the astronaut corps requires vision correction. Further demands of the unique training and working environment of microgravity, variable lighting from very poor to extreme brightness of sunlight and exposure to extremes of electromagnetic energy results in unique eyewear and contact lens applications. This presentation will describe some of those unique eyewear and contact lens applications used in space flight and training environments. Additionally, ocular findings from 26 shuttle and 5 MIR mission post-flight examinations will be presented.

Seasonal Variability of Precipitation Extremes in New York City

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Polanco, W.

2016-12-01

Precipitation extremes can have very important impacts, and it is not known as to how precipitation extremes might change with global warming. New York City is located in the mid-latitude region where there are specific storms that can cause precipitation extremes, predominantly, hurricanes, extratropical cyclones, and quasi-linear convective systems. These storms preferentially occur during different seasons. Therefore, to understand how these different storms relate to precipitation extremes, this study examines NYC precipitation extremes per season. First, NOAA weather station data from January 1979 to December 2014 from the three NYC airports (JFK, LaGuardia and Newark) will be analyzed to derive the climatology, the counts of non-rain events, and the counts of extreme precipitation events. Next, a multi-station average will be used to compare the precipitation events that occur in Spring, Summer, and Fall. The precipitation strength will be compared as well as the temperature anomalies for each season. Then, using reanalysis, composites of the sea level pressure and temperature fields will be calculated for the top events from each season.

Detection of meteorological extreme effect on historical crop yield anomaly

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, W.; Iizumi, T.; Nishimori, M.

2017-12-01

Meteorological extremes of temperature and precipitation are a critical issue in the global climate change, and some studies investigating how the extreme changes in accordance with the climate change are continuously reported. However, it is rarely understandable that the extremes affect crop yield worldwide as heatwave, coolwave, drought, and flood, albeit some local or national reports are available. Therefore, we globally investigated the extremes effects on the variability of historical yield of maize, rice, soy, and wheat with a standardized index and a historical yield anomaly. For the regression analysis, the standardized index is annually aggregated in the consideration of a crop calendar, and the historical yield is detrended with 5-year moving average. Throughout this investigation, we found that the relationship between the aggregated standardized index and the historical yield anomaly shows not merely positive correlation but also negative correlation in all crops in the globe. Namely, the extremes cause decrease of crop yield as a matter of course, but increase in some regions contrastingly. These results help us to quantify the extremes effect on historical crop yield anomaly.

A Framework to Understand Extreme Space Weather Event Probability.

PubMed

Jonas, Seth; Fronczyk, Kassandra; Pratt, Lucas M

2018-03-12

An extreme space weather event has the potential to disrupt or damage infrastructure systems and technologies that many societies rely on for economic and social well-being. Space weather events occur regularly, but extreme events are less frequent, with a small number of historical examples over the last 160 years. During the past decade, published works have (1) examined the physical characteristics of the extreme historical events and (2) discussed the probability or return rate of select extreme geomagnetic disturbances, including the 1859 Carrington event. Here we present initial findings on a unified framework approach to visualize space weather event probability, using a Bayesian model average, in the context of historical extreme events. We present disturbance storm time (Dst) probability (a proxy for geomagnetic disturbance intensity) across multiple return periods and discuss parameters of interest to policymakers and planners in the context of past extreme space weather events. We discuss the current state of these analyses, their utility to policymakers and planners, the current limitations when compared to other hazards, and several gaps that need to be filled to enhance space weather risk assessments. © 2018 Society for Risk Analysis.

Highly Conductive Multifunctional Graphene Polycarbonate Nanocomposites

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yoonessi, Mitra; Gaier, James R.

2010-01-01

Graphene nanosheet bisphenol A polycarbonate nanocomposites (0.027 2.2 vol %) prepared by both emulsion mixing and solution blending methods, followed by compression molding at 287 C, exhibited dc electrical percolation threshold of approx.0.14 and approx.0.38 vol %, respectively. The conductivities of 2.2 vol % graphene nanocomposites were 0.512 and 0.226 S/cm for emulsion and solution mixing. The 1.1 and 2.2 vol % graphene nanocomposites exhibited frequency-independent behavior. Inherent conductivity, extremely high aspect ratio, and nanostructure directed assembly of the graphene using PC nanospheres are the main factors for excellent electrical properties of the nanocomposites. Dynamic tensile moduli of nanocomposites increased with increasing graphene in the nanocomposite. The glass transition temperatures were decreased with increasing graphene for the emulsion series. High-resolution electron microscopy (HR-TEM) and small-angle neutron scattering (SANS) showed isolated graphene with no connectivity path for insulating nanocomposites and connected nanoparticles for the conductive nanocomposites. A stacked disk model was used to obtain the average particle radius, average number of graphene layers per stack, and stack spacing by simulation of the experimental SANS data. Morphology studies indicated the presence of well-dispersed graphene and small graphene stacking with infusion of polycarbonate within the stacks.

Happiest People Revisited.

PubMed

Diener, Ed; Seligman, Martin E P; Choi, Hyewon; Oishi, Shigehiro

2018-03-01

In a past Psychological Science article, Diener and Seligman (2002) explored the characteristics of extremely happy individuals and found that strong social relationships characterized the entire group. The study was popular, perhaps because the authors focused on the very happiest people, not merely on correlations across the entire spectrum of subjective well-being. In the current study, we replicated and extended the earlier paper here by examining, in a world sample, the differences between the happiest individuals and unhappy and averagely happy people. We largely replicated earlier findings; basic need fulfillment and social resources were two ingredients for high subjective well-being. Replicating and extending the earlier findings, we found that, compared with the averagely happy people, the happiest people were more likely to come from societies high in subjective well-being and social capital. To achieve very high happiness, it is helpful not only to have desirable personal circumstances, but also to live in a prosperous happy society with strong social support. As in the original study, although a few characteristics seemed virtually necessary for subjective well-being (SWB), no characteristic guaranteed it. We also uncovered variables separating the groups that might be outcomes of SWB, for example, helping others, exercising, and not smoking.

AMS Radiocarbon Dating Individual Taxa and Individual Specimens: Implications for Small Mammal Paleoecology.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Graham, Russell; Stafford, Thomas, Jr.; Semken, Holmes, Jr.

2010-05-01

Advances in AMS physics and organic geochemistry have revolutionized our ability to establish absolute chronologies on vertebrate fossils. Highly purified collagen, which provides extremely accurate 14C ages, can be extracted from single bones and teeth as small as 50 mg. Combined with measurement precisions of ±15 to 25 years for ages of < 20,000 yr, the direct AMS 14C technique enables fossil deposits to be chronologically dissected at the level of single animals. Analysis of data from a variety of sites in the United States indicates that most excavation levels (analysis units) as small as 10 cm can be time averaged by several thousand years at a minimum, even with the greatest care in excavation and processing of sediments. Time averaging of this magnitude has important implications for fine-scale paleoecological analysis of faunas, especially when compared to high-resolution climate records like those derived from speleothems, ice cores, or marine cores. To this end, we propose saturation dating of indicative taxa and plotting dates of individual specimens against high-resolution climate records rather than analysis of complete faunas or faunules. This technique provides even higher resolution of paleoenvironments than pollen spectra.

Statistic analysis of annual total ozone extremes for the period 1964-1988

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Krzyscin, Janusz W.

1994-01-01

Annual extremes of total column amount of ozone (in the period 1964-1988) from a network of 29 Dobson stations have been examined using the extreme value analysis. The extremes have been calculated as the highest deviation of daily mean total ozone from its long-term monthly mean, normalized by the monthly standard deviations. The extremes have been selected from the direct-Sun total ozone observations only. The extremes resulting from abrupt changes in ozone (day to day changes greater than 20 percent) have not been considered. The ordered extremes (maxima in ascending way, minima in descending way) have been fitted to one of three forms of the Fisher-Tippet extreme value distribution by the nonlinear least square method (Levenberg-Marguard method). We have found that the ordered extremes from a majority of Dobson stations lie close to Fisher-Tippet type III. The extreme value analysis of the composite annual extremes (combined from averages of the annual extremes selected at individual stations) has shown that the composite maxima are fitted by the Fisher-Tippet type III and the composite minima by the Fisher-Tippet type I. The difference between the Fisher-Tippet types of the composite extremes seems to be related to the ozone downward trend. Extreme value prognoses for the period 1964-2014 (derived from the data taken at: all analyzed stations, the North American, and the European stations) have revealed that the prognostic extremes are close to the largest annual extremes in the period 1964-1988 and there are only small regional differences in the prognoses.

Nonlinear pulse compression stage delivering 43-W few-cycle pulses with GW peak-power at 2-μm wavelength

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gebhardt, Martin; Gaida, Christian; Heuermann, T.; Stutzki, F.; Jauregui, C.; Antonio-Lopez, J.; Schüuzgen, A.; Amezcua-Correa, R.; Tünnermann, A.; Limpert, J.

2018-02-01

In this contribution we demonstrate the nonlinear pulse compression of an ultrafast thulium-doped fiber laser down to 14 fs FWHM duration (sub-3 optical cycles) at a record average power of 43 W and 34.5 μJ pulse energy. To the best of our knowledge, we present the highest average power few-cycle laser source at 2 μm wavelength. This performance level in combination with GW-class peak power makes our laser source extremely interesting for driving high-harmonic generation or for generating mid-infrared frequency combs via intra-pulse frequency down-conversion at an unprecedented average power. The experiments were enabled by an ultrafast thulium-doped fiber laser delivering 110 fs pulses at high repetition rates, and an argon gas-filled antiresonant hollow-core fiber (ARHCF) with excellent transmission and weak anomalous dispersion, leading to the self-compression of the pulses. We have shown that ARHCFs are well-suited for nonlinear pulse compression around 2 μm wavelength and that this concept features excellent power handling capabilities. Based on this result, we discuss the next steps for energy and average power scaling including upscaling the fiber dimensions in order to fully exploit the capabilities of our laser system, which can deliver several GW of peak power. This way, a 100 W-class laser source with mJ-level few-cycle pulses at 2 μm wavelength is feasible in the near future.

Crop insurance evaluation in response to extreme events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moriondo, Marco; Ferrise, Roberto; Bindi, Marco

2013-04-01

Crop yield insurance has been indicated as a tool to manage the uncertainties of crop yields (Sherrick et al., 2004) but the changes in crop yield variability as expected in the near future should be carefully considered for a better quantitative assessment of farmer's revenue risk and insurance values in a climatic change regime (Moriondo et al., 2011). Under this point of view, mechanistic crop growth models coupled to the output of General/Regional Circulation Models (GCMs, RCMs) offer a valuable tool to evaluate crop responses to climatic change and this approach has been extensively used to describe crop yield distribution in response to climatic change considering changes in both mean climate and variability. In this work, we studied the effect of a warmer climate on crop yield distribution of durum wheat (Triticum turgidum L. subsp durum) in order to assess the economic significance of climatic change in a risk decision context. Specifically, the outputs of 6 RCMs (Tmin, Tmax, Rainfall, Global Radiation) (van der Linden and Mitchell 2009) have been statistically downscaled by a stochastic weather generator over eight sites across the Mediterranean basin and used to feed the crop growth model Sirius Quality. Three time slices were considered i) the present period PP (average of the period 1975-1990, [CO2]=350 ppm), 2020 (average of the period 2010-2030, SRES scenario A1b, [CO2]=415 ppm) and 2040 (average of the period 2030-2050, SRES scenario A1b, [CO2]=480 ppm). The effect of extreme climate events (i.e. heat stress at anthesis stage) was also considered. The outputs of these simulations were used to estimate the expected payout per hectare from insurance triggered when yields fall below a specific threshold defined as "the insured yield". For each site, the threshold was calculated as a fraction (70%) of the median of yield distribution under PP that represents the percentage of median yield above which indemnity payments are triggered. The results indicated that when the effect of extreme events was not considered, climate change had a low or no impact on crop yield distribution in 2020 and 2040. This resulted into an expected payout close to what observed in the present period. Conversely, the simulation of the effect of extreme events highly affected the PDFs by reducing the expected yield. This highlights that insured yield in future projections may be overestimated when not considering the impact of extremes, leading to distortions in the risk management of crop insurance companies. References Moriondo M, Giannakopoulos C, Bindi M (2011) Climate ch'ange impact assessment: the role of climate extremes in crop yield simulation. Clim Change 104:679-701 Sherrick BJ, Zanini FC, Schnitkey GD, Irwin SH (2004) Crop Insurance Valuation under Alternative Yield Distributions. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 86:406-419. van der Linden P, Mitchell JFB (eds) (2009) ENSEMBLES: climate change and its impacts: summary of research and results from the ENSEMBLES project. Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter EX1 3 PB, UK. 160 pp

Peak power ratio generator

DOEpatents

Moyer, Robert D.

1985-01-01

A peak power ratio generator is described for measuring, in combination with a conventional power meter, the peak power level of extremely narrow pulses in the gigahertz radio frequency bands. The present invention in a preferred embodiment utilizes a tunnel diode and a back diode combination in a detector circuit as the only high speed elements. The high speed tunnel diode provides a bistable signal and serves as a memory device of the input pulses for the remaining, slower components. A hybrid digital and analog loop maintains the peak power level of a reference channel at a known amount. Thus, by measuring the average power levels of the reference signal and the source signal, the peak power level of the source signal can be determined.

Peak power ratio generator

DOEpatents

Moyer, R.D.

A peak power ratio generator is described for measuring, in combination with a conventional power meter, the peak power level of extremely narrow pulses in the gigahertz radio frequency bands. The present invention in a preferred embodiment utilizes a tunnel diode and a back diode combination in a detector circuit as the only high speed elements. The high speed tunnel diode provides a bistable signal and serves as a memory device of the input pulses for the remaining, slower components. A hybrid digital and analog loop maintains the peak power level of a reference channel at a known amount. Thus, by measuring the average power levels of the reference signal and the source signal, the peak power level of the source signal can be determined.

Numerical study of electromagnetic scattering from one-dimensional nonlinear fractal sea surface

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xie, Tao; He, Chao; William, Perrie; Kuang, Hai-Lan; Zou, Guang-Hui; Chen, Wei

2010-02-01

In recent years, linear fractal sea surface models have been developed for the sea surface in order to establish an electromagnetic backscattering model. Unfortunately, the sea surface is always nonlinear, particularly at high sea states. We present a nonlinear fractal sea surface model and derive an electromagnetic backscattering model. Using this model, we numerically calculate the normalized radar cross section (NRCS) of a nonlinear sea surface. Comparing the averaged NRCS between linear and nonlinear fractal models, we show that the NRCS of a linear fractal sea surface underestimates the NRCS of the real sea surface, especially for sea states with high fractal dimensions, and for dominant ocean surface gravity waves that are either very short or extremely long.

Changes in Extremely Hot Summers over the Global Land Area under Various Warming Targets.

PubMed

Wang, Lei; Huang, Jianbin; Luo, Yong; Yao, Yao; Zhao, Zongci

2015-01-01

Summer temperature extremes over the global land area were investigated by comparing 26 models of the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) with observations from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) and the Climate Research Unit (CRU). Monthly data of the observations and models were averaged for each season, and statistics were calculated for individual models before averaging them to obtain ensemble means. The summers with temperature anomalies (relative to 1951-1980) exceeding 3σ (σ is based on the local internal variability) are defined as "extremely hot". The models well reproduced the statistical characteristics evolution, and partly captured the spatial distributions of historical summer temperature extremes. If the global mean temperature increases 2°C relative to the pre-industrial level, "extremely hot" summers are projected to occur over nearly 40% of the land area (multi-model ensemble mean projection). Summers that exceed 5σ warming are projected to occur over approximately 10% of the global land area, which were rarely observed during the reference period. Scenarios reaching warming levels of 3°C to 5°C were also analyzed. After exceeding the 5°C warming target, "extremely hot" summers are projected to occur throughout the entire global land area, and summers that exceed 5σ warming would become common over 70% of the land area. In addition, the areas affected by "extremely hot" summers are expected to rapidly expand by more than 25%/°C as the global mean temperature increases by up to 3°C before slowing to less than 16%/°C as the temperature continues to increase by more than 3°C. The area that experiences summers with warming of 5σ or more above the warming target of 2°C is likely to maintain rapid expansion of greater than 17%/°C. To reduce the impacts and damage from severely hot summers, the global mean temperature increase should remain low.

Estimating Perturbation and Meta-Stability in the Daily Attendance Rates of Six Small High Schools

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koopmans, Matthijs

This paper discusses the daily attendance rates in six small high schools over a ten-year period and evaluates how stable those rates are. “Stability” is approached from two vantage points: pulse models are fitted to estimate the impact of sudden perturbations and their reverberation through the series, and Autoregressive Fractionally Integrated Moving Average (ARFIMA) techniques are used to detect dependencies over the long range of the series. The analyses are meant to (1) exemplify the utility of time series approaches in educational research, which lacks a time series tradition, (2) discuss some time series features that seem to be particular to daily attendance rate trajectories such as the distinct downward pull coming from extreme observations, and (3) present an analytical approach to handle the important yet distinct patterns of variability that can be found in these data. The analysis also illustrates why the assumption of stability that underlies the habitual reporting of weekly, monthly and yearly averages in the educational literature is questionable, as it reveals dynamical processes (perturbation, meta-stability) that remain hidden in such summaries.

Injuries in karate: systematic review.

PubMed

Thomas, Roger E; Ornstein, Jodie

2018-05-22

to identify all studies of Karate injuries and assess injury rates, types, location, and causes. Six electronic and four grey literature databases were searched. Two reviewers independently assessed titles/abstracts, abstracted data and assessed risk-of-bias with the Newcastle-Ottawa scale. Average injury rates/1000AE (AE = athletic-encounter) and/1000minutesAE, injury location and type weighted by study size were calculated. In competitions rates of injury/1000AE and/1000 minutesAE were similar for males (111.4/1000AE, 75.4/1000 minAE) and females (105.8/1000AE, 72.8/1000 minAE). Location of injury rates/1000AE for males were 44.0 for head/neck, 11.9 lower extremities, 8.1 torso and 5.4 upper extremities and were similar for females: 41.2 head/neck, 12.4 lower extremities, 9.1 torso and 6.3 upper extremities. Injury rates varied widely by study. Rates/1000AE for type of injury were contusions/abrasions/lacerations/bruises/tooth avulsion for males (68.1) and females (30.4); hematomas/bleeding/epistaxis males (11.4) and females (12.1); strains/sprains males (3.5) and females (0.1); dislocations males (2.9) and females (0.9); concussions males (2.5) and females (3.9); and fractures males (2.9) and females (1.4). Punches were a more common mechanism of injury for males (59.8) than females (40.8) and kicks similar (males 19.7, females 21.7). Weighted averages were not calculated for weight class or belt colour because there were too few studies. Nineteen injury surveys reported annual injury rates from 30% to rates ten times higher but used different reporting methods. Studies provided no data to explain wide rate ranges. Studies need to adopt one injury definition, one data-collection form, and collect comprehensive data for each study for both training and competitions. More data are needed to measure the effect of weight, age and experience on injuries, rates and types of injury during training, and for competitors with high injury rates. RCTs are needed of interventions such as training and feedback of performance data to reduce injury rates.

INTERSESSION RELIABILITY OF UPPER EXTREMITY ISOKINETIC PUSH-PULL TESTING.

PubMed

Riemann, Bryan L; Davis, Sarah E; Huet, Kevin; Davies, George J

2016-02-01

Based on the frequency pushing and pulling patterns are used in functional activities, there is a need to establish an objective method of quantifying the muscle performance characteristics associated with these motions, particularly during the later stages of rehabilitation as criteria for discharge. While isokinetic assessment offers an approach to quantifying muscle performance, little is known about closed kinetic chain (CKC) isokinetic testing of the upper extremity (UE). To determine the intersession reliability of isokinetic upper extremity measurement of pushing and pulling peak force and average power at slow (0.24 m/s), medium (0.43 m/s) and fast (0.61 m/s) velocities in healthy young adults. The secondary purpose was to compare pushing and pulling peak force (PF) and average power (AP) between the upper extremity limbs (dominant, non-dominant) across the three velocities. Twenty-four physically active men and women completed a test-retest (>96 hours) protocol in order to establish isokinetic UE CKC reliability of PF and AP during five maximal push and pull repetitions at three velocities. Both limb and speed orders were randomized between subjects. High test-retest relative reliability using intraclass correlation coefficients (ICC2, 1) were revealed for PF (.91-.97) and AP (.85-.95) across velocities, limbs and directions. PF typical error (% coefficient of variation) ranged from 6.1% to 11.3% while AP ranged from 9.9% to 26.7%. PF decreased significantly (p < .05) as velocity increased whereas AP increased as velocity increased. PF and AP during pushing were significantly greater than pulling at all velocities, however the push-pull differences in PF became less as velocity increased. There were no significant differences identified between the dominant and nondominant limbs. Isokinetically derived UE CKC push-pull PF and AP are reliable measures. The lack of limb differences in healthy normal participants suggests that clinicians can consider bilateral comparisons when interpreting test performance. The increase in pushing PF and AP compared to pulling can be attributed to the muscles involved and the frequency that pushing patterns are used during functional activities. 3.

Revisiting the Quantum Brain Hypothesis: Toward Quantum (Neuro)biology?

PubMed Central

Jedlicka, Peter

2017-01-01

The nervous system is a non-linear dynamical complex system with many feedback loops. A conventional wisdom is that in the brain the quantum fluctuations are self-averaging and thus functionally negligible. However, this intuition might be misleading in the case of non-linear complex systems. Because of an extreme sensitivity to initial conditions, in complex systems the microscopic fluctuations may be amplified and thereby affect the system’s behavior. In this way quantum dynamics might influence neuronal computations. Accumulating evidence in non-neuronal systems indicates that biological evolution is able to exploit quantum stochasticity. The recent rise of quantum biology as an emerging field at the border between quantum physics and the life sciences suggests that quantum events could play a non-trivial role also in neuronal cells. Direct experimental evidence for this is still missing but future research should address the possibility that quantum events contribute to an extremely high complexity, variability and computational power of neuronal dynamics. PMID:29163041

Revisiting the Quantum Brain Hypothesis: Toward Quantum (Neuro)biology?

PubMed

Jedlicka, Peter

2017-01-01

The nervous system is a non-linear dynamical complex system with many feedback loops. A conventional wisdom is that in the brain the quantum fluctuations are self-averaging and thus functionally negligible. However, this intuition might be misleading in the case of non-linear complex systems. Because of an extreme sensitivity to initial conditions, in complex systems the microscopic fluctuations may be amplified and thereby affect the system's behavior. In this way quantum dynamics might influence neuronal computations. Accumulating evidence in non-neuronal systems indicates that biological evolution is able to exploit quantum stochasticity. The recent rise of quantum biology as an emerging field at the border between quantum physics and the life sciences suggests that quantum events could play a non-trivial role also in neuronal cells. Direct experimental evidence for this is still missing but future research should address the possibility that quantum events contribute to an extremely high complexity, variability and computational power of neuronal dynamics.

Rasch Analysis of the Power as Knowing Participation in Change Tool--the Brazilian version.

PubMed

Guedes, Erika de Souza; Orozco-Vargas, Luiz Carlos; Turrini, Ruth Natália Teresa; de Sousa, Regina Márcia Cardoso; dos Santos, Mariana Alvina; da Cruz, Diná de Almeida Lopes Monteiro

2013-01-01

the objective of this study was to evaluate the items contained in the Brazilian version of the Power as Knowing Participation in Change Tool (PKPCT). investigation of the psychometric properties of the mentioned questionnaire through Rasch analysis. the data from 952 nursing assistants and 627 baccalaureate nurses were analyzed (average age 44.1 (SD=9.5); 13.0% men). The subscales Choices, Awareness, Freedom and Involvement were tested separately and presented unidimensionality; the categories of the responses given to the items were compiled from 7 to 3 levels and the items fit the model well, except for the following/leading item, in which the infit and outfit values were above 1.4; this item has also presented Differential Item Functioning (DIF) according to the participant's role. The reliability of the items was of 0.99 and the reliability of the participants ranged from 0.80 to 0.84 in the subscales. Items with extremely high levels of difficulty were not identified. the PKPCT should not be viewed as unidimensional, items with extremely high levels of difficulty in the scale need to be created and the differential functioning of some items has to be further investigated.

Explosive X-point collapse in relativistic magnetically dominated plasma

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lyutikov, Maxim; Sironi, Lorenzo; Komissarov, Serguei S.; Porth, Oliver

2017-12-01

The extreme properties of the gamma-ray flares in the Crab nebula present a clear challenge to our ideas on the nature of particle acceleration in relativistic astrophysical plasma. It seems highly unlikely that standard mechanisms of stochastic type are at work here and hence the attention of theorists has switched to linear acceleration in magnetic reconnection events. In this series of papers, we attempt to develop a theory of explosive magnetic reconnection in highly magnetized relativistic plasma which can explain the extreme parameters of the Crab flares. In the first paper, we focus on the properties of the X-point collapse. Using analytical and numerical methods (fluid and particle-in-cell simulations) we extend Syrovatsky's classical model of such collapse to the relativistic regime. We find that the collapse can lead to the reconnection rate approaching the speed of light on macroscopic scales. During the collapse, the plasma particles are accelerated by charge-starved electric fields, which can reach (and even exceed) values of the local magnetic field. The explosive stage of reconnection produces non-thermal power-law tails with slopes that depend on the average magnetization . For sufficiently high magnetizations and vanishing guide field, the non-thermal particle spectrum consists of two components: a low-energy population with soft spectrum that dominates the number census; and a high-energy population with hard spectrum that possesses all the properties needed to explain the Crab flares.

The effect of mortality salience on women's judgments of male faces.

PubMed

Vaughn, James E; Bradley, Kristopher I; Byrd-Craven, Jennifer; Kennison, Shelia M

2010-08-30

Previous research has shown that individuals who are reminded of their death exhibited a greater desire for offspring than those who were not reminded of their death. The present research investigated whether being reminded of mortality affects mate selection behaviors, such as facial preference judgments. Prior research has shown that women prefer more masculine faces when they are at the high versus low fertility phase of their menstrual cycles. We report an experiment in which women were tested either at their high or fertility phase. They were randomly assigned to either a mortality salience (MS) or control condition and then asked to judge faces ranging from extreme masculine to extreme feminine. The results showed that women's choice of the attractive male face was determined by an interaction between fertility phase and condition. In control conditions, high fertility phase women preferred a significantly more masculine face than women who were in a lower fertility phase of their menstrual cycles. In MS conditions, high fertility phase women preferred a significantly less masculine (i.e., more average) face than women who were in a low fertility phase. The results indicate that biological processes, such as fertility phase, involved in mate selection are sensitive to current environmental factors, such as death reminders. This sensitivity may serve as an adaptive compromise when choosing a mate in potentially adverse environmental conditions.

Differences in single and aggregated nanoparticle plasmon spectroscopy.

PubMed

Singh, Pushkar; Deckert-Gaudig, Tanja; Schneidewind, Henrik; Kirsch, Konstantin; van Schrojenstein Lantman, Evelien M; Weckhuysen, Bert M; Deckert, Volker

2015-02-07

Vibrational spectroscopy usually provides structural information averaged over many molecules. We report a larger peak position variation and reproducibly smaller FWHM of TERS spectra compared to SERS spectra indicating that the number of molecules excited in a TERS experiment is extremely low. Thus, orientational averaging effects are suppressed and micro ensembles are investigated. This is shown for a thiophenol molecule adsorbed on Au nanoplates and nanoparticles.

Dynamic injury tolerances for long bones of the female upper extremity

PubMed Central

DUMA, STEFAN M.; SCHREIBER, PHIL H.; McMASTER, JOHN D.; CRANDALL, JEFF R.; BASS, CAMERON R.; PILKEY, WALTER D.

1999-01-01

This paper presents the dynamic injury tolerances for the female humerus and forearm derived from dynamic 3-point bending tests using 22 female cadaver upper extremities. Twelve female humeri were tested at an average strain rate of 3.7±1.3%/s. The strain rates were chosen to be representative of those observed during upper extremity interaction with frontal and side airbags. The average moment to failure when mass scaled for the 5th centile female was 128±19 Nm. Using data from the in situ strain gauges during the drop tests and geometric properties obtained from pretest CT scans, an average dynamic elastic modulus for the female humerus was found to be 24.4±3.9 GPa. The injury tolerance for the forearm was determined from 10 female forearms tested at an average strain rate of 3.94±2.0%/s. Using 3 matched forearm pairs, it was determined that the forearm is 21% stronger in the supinated position (92±5 Nm) versus the pronated position (75±7 Nm). Two distinct fracture patterns were seen for the pronated and supinated groups. In the supinated position the average difference in fracture time between the radius and ulna was a negligible 0.4±0.3 ms. However, the pronated tests yielded an average difference in fracture time of 3.6±1.2 ms, with the ulna breaking before the radius in every test. This trend implies that in the pronated position, the ulna and radius are loaded independently, while in the supinated position the ulna and radius are loaded together as a combined structure. To produce a conservative injury criterion, a total of 7 female forearms were tested in the pronated position, which resulted in the forearm injury criterion of 58±12 Nm when scaled for the 5th centile female. It is anticipated that these data will provide injury reference values for the female forearm during driver air bag loading, and the female humerus during side air bag loading. PMID:10386782

The motorcyclist: easy rider or easy victim? An analysis of motorcycle accidents in Germany.

PubMed

Wick, M; Müller, E J; Ekkernkamp, A; Muhr, G

1998-05-01

This report reviews the findings from 86 motorcycle accidents during a 1-year period at the Trauma Center "Bergmannsheil" in Bochum, Germany. A study of the case histories supplemented by telephone conversations yielded the following results: 90.7% of the patients were men, and the average age was 28.8 years; most of the accidents occurred in the 25- to 30-year-old age group (27.9%). Motorcycle accidents happened mostly during recreational rides on weekends in the summertime. Although there was a high rate of helmet use (98.8%), the head region was affected in 12 victims. Two patients died because of their severe head injuries (2.3%). Lower extremity injuries (46%), especially open tibia fractures (19.7%), were among the most common injuries sustained. Fractures of the distal radius constituted the largest portion of upper extremity injuries (18.8%). The average stay in our hospital was 35.4 days; 23.4% of the patients had to change jobs after the accident. Fifty percent of the crashes happened with motorcycles between 500 and 750 cc stroke volume. Although 34.5% possessed their driver's licenses for more than 8 years, they had not had much experience handling a motorbike. These results underline the fact that motorcycle accidents are sustained by young men in their working prime; as a result, these accidents pose a tremendous burden to individuals and society and every attempt should be made to offer highly qualified surgical and trauma care to minimize the damage to the motorbiker. A plea is made for more prevention measures like driver education, better road conditions, or legislative changes to prevent motorcycle crashes. The wearing of a helmet is strongly advocated.

Unhappy doctors? A longitudinal study of life and job satisfaction among Norwegian doctors 1994 – 2002

PubMed Central

Nylenna, Magne; Gulbrandsen, Pål; Førde, Reidun; Aasland, Olaf G

2005-01-01

Background General opinion is that doctors are increasingly dissatisfied with their job, but few longitudinal studies exist. This study has been conducted to investigate a possible decline in professional and personal satisfaction among doctors by the turn of the century. Methods We have done a survey among a representative sample of 1 174 Norwegian doctors in 2002 (response rate 73 %) and compared the findings with answers to the same questions by (most of) the same doctors in 1994 and 2000. The main outcome measures were self reported levels of life satisfaction and job satisfaction according to the Job Satisfaction Scale (JSS). Results Most Norwegian doctors are happy. They reported an average life satisfaction of 5.21 in 1994 and 5.32 in 2002 on a scale from 1 (extremely dissatisfied) to 7 (extremely satisfied). Half of the respondents reported a very high level of general life satisfaction (a score of 6 or 7) while only one third said they would have reported this high level of satisfaction five years ago. The doctors thought that they had a higher level of job satisfaction than other comparable professional groups. The job satisfaction scale among the same doctors showed a significant increase from 1994 to 2002. Anaesthesiologists and internists reported a lower and psychiatrists and primary care doctors reported a higher level of job satisfaction than the average. Conclusion Norwegian doctors seem to have enjoyed an increasing level of life and job satisfaction rather than a decline over the last decade. This challenges the general impression of unhappy doctors as a general and worldwide phenomenon. PMID:15943859

Temporal pattern and memory in sediment transport in an experimental step-pool channel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saletti, Matteo; Molnar, Peter; Zimmermann, André; Hassan, Marwan A.; Church, Michael; Burlando, Paolo

2015-04-01

In this work we study the complex dynamics of sediment transport and bed morphology in steep streams, using a dataset of experiments performed in a steep flume with natural sediment. High-resolution (1 sec) time series of sediment transport were measured for individual size classes at the outlet of the flume for different combinations of sediment input rates, discharges, and flume slopes. The data show that the relation between instantaneous discharge and sediment transport exhibits large variability on different levels. After dividing the time series into segments of constant water discharge, we quantify the statistical properties of transport rates by fitting the data with a Generalized Extreme Value distribution, whose 3 parameters are related to the average sediment flux. We analyze separately extreme events of transport rate in terms of their fractional composition; if only events of high magnitude are considered, coarse grains become the predominant component of the total sediment yield. We quantify the memory in grain size dependent sediment transport with variance scaling and autocorrelation analyses; more specifically, we study how the variance changes with different aggregation scales and how the autocorrelation coefficient changes with different time lags. Our results show that there is a tendency to an infinite memory regime in transport rate signals, which is limited by the intermittency of the largest fractions. Moreover, the structure of memory is both grain size-dependent and magnitude-dependent: temporal autocorrelation is stronger for small grain size fractions and when the average sediment transport rate is large. The short-term memory in coarse grain transport increases with temporal aggregation and this reveals the importance of the sampling frequency of bedload transport rates in natural streams, especially for large fractions.

Heavy X-ray obscuration in the most luminous galaxies discovered by WISE

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vito, F.; Brandt, W. N.; Stern, D.; Assef, R. J.; Chen, C.-T. J.; Brightman, M.; Comastri, A.; Eisenhardt, P.; Garmire, G. P.; Hickox, R.; Lansbury, G.; Tsai, C.-W.; Walton, D. J.; Wu, J. W.

2018-03-01

Hot dust-obscured galaxies (DOGs) are hyperluminous (L8-1000 μm > 1013 L⊙) infrared galaxies with extremely high (up to hundreds of K) dust temperatures. The sources powering both their extremely high luminosities and dust temperatures are thought to be deeply buried and rapidly accreting supermassive black holes (SMBHs). Hot DOGs could therefore represent a key evolutionary phase in which the SMBH growth peaks. X-ray observations can be used to study their obscuration levels and luminosities. In this work, we present the X-ray properties of the 20 most luminous (Lbol ≳ 1014 L⊙) known hot DOGs at z = 2-4.6. Five of them are covered by long-exposure (10-70 ks) Chandra and XMM-Newton observations, with three being X-ray detected, and we study their individual properties. One of these sources (W0116-0505) is a Compton-thick candidate, with column density NH = (1.0-1.5) × 1024 cm-2 derived from X-ray spectral fitting. The remaining 15 hot DOGs have been targeted by a Chandra snapshot (3.1 ks) survey. None of these 15 are individually detected; therefore, we applied a stacking analysis to investigate their average emission. From hardness ratio analysis, we constrained the average obscuring column density and intrinsic luminosity to be log NH (cm-2) > 23.5 and LX ≳ 1044 erg s-1, which are consistent with results for individually detected sources. We also investigated the LX-L6 μm and LX-Lbol relations, finding hints that hot DOGs are typically X-ray weaker than expected, although larger samples of luminous obscured quasi-stellar objects are needed to derive solid conclusions.

Cool North European summers and possible links to explosive volcanic eruptions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, P. D.; Melvin, T. M.; Harpham, C.; Grudd, H.; Helama, S.

2013-06-01

Exactly dated tree-ring measurements such as ring width (TRW) and maximum latewood density (MXD), which are sensitive to summer temperatures, can provide possible routes to investigate the occurrence of hemispheric-wide cool summers that might be linked to explosive tropical volcanic eruptions. These measurements can provide much longer records than the instrumental period, enabling much longer periods to be assessed and offers the potential to look at much larger eruptions than recorded over the last 200 years. This paper looks at TRW evidence from Northern Fennoscandia extending over the last 7500 years, using two independently produced chronologies from northern Sweden and northern Finland. TRW is less responsive than MXD to cool summer temperatures, but MXD is only available for the last 2000 years. Additionally, looking at a relatively small location, compared to the Northern Hemisphere average, adds considerable noise. Progress in this area is likely to be made by developing more millennial-long TRW series across northern high latitudes or being able to develop MXD series from the sub-fossil material, which comprises most of the samples prior to the last 1000 years. The three most extreme negative values for the region for the last 2000 years are 1601, 542, and 1837, although the latter is not extreme in a long instrumental record for the region. The most extreme year of all occurred in 330BC. Of the 20 most extreme negative years, nine occurred during the AD years with the remaining 11 occurring during the prior 5500 years.

Synoptic and meteorological drivers of extreme ozone concentrations over Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Otero, Noelia Felipe; Sillmann, Jana; Schnell, Jordan L.; Rust, Henning W.; Butler, Tim

2016-04-01

The present work assesses the relationship between local and synoptic meteorological conditions and surface ozone concentration over Europe in spring and summer months, during the period 1998-2012 using a new interpolated data set of observed surface ozone concentrations over the European domain. Along with local meteorological conditions, the influence of large-scale atmospheric circulation on surface ozone is addressed through a set of airflow indices computed with a novel implementation of a grid-by-grid weather type classification across Europe. Drivers of surface ozone over the full distribution of maximum daily 8-hour average values are investigated, along with drivers of the extreme high percentiles and exceedances or air quality guideline thresholds. Three different regression techniques are applied: multiple linear regression to assess the drivers of maximum daily ozone, logistic regression to assess the probability of threshold exceedances and quantile regression to estimate the meteorological influence on extreme values, as represented by the 95th percentile. The relative importance of the input parameters (predictors) is assessed by a backward stepwise regression procedure that allows the identification of the most important predictors in each model. Spatial patterns of model performance exhibit distinct variations between regions. The inclusion of the ozone persistence is particularly relevant over Southern Europe. In general, the best model performance is found over Central Europe, where the maximum temperature plays an important role as a driver of maximum daily ozone as well as its extreme values, especially during warmer months.

Microkeratome-Assisted Anterior Lamellar Keratoplasty for the Correction of High-Degree Postkeratoplasty Astigmatism.

PubMed

Gutfreund, Shay; Leon, Pia; Busin, Massimo

2017-07-01

To describe the surgical technique and report the outcomes of patients treated with microkeratome-assisted anterior lamellar keratoplasty (MALK) for the correction of high-degree postkeratoplasty astigmatism. Four eyes of 2 patients with extremely high (>10 D) and irregular [surface asymmetry index >1.0 D] post-penetrating keratoplasty astigmatism occurring after complete suture removal underwent MALK and were followed for at least 3 years after the procedure. In all cases, 250-µm lamellar keratectomy was performed, followed by 2 full-thickness incisions through the penetrating keratoplasty scar and the placement of an appropriately sized donor graft, which was secured with a double-running 10-0 nylon suture. All sutures were removed in all eyes within 1 year from surgery. Corrected distance visual acuity, refraction, corneal topography, and endothelial cell density were noted at each examination. At the last follow-up examination (3 years or longer after MALK), corrected distance visual acuity had improved to 20/20, refractive astigmatism had decreased to an average of 2.1 D (in all cases within 4.5 D), and the average surface asymmetry index had reduced from 2.27 to 0.56. MALK is an effective and safe technique for the correction of high-degree postkeratoplasty astigmatism.

High-voltage electrical burn injuries: functional upper extremity assessment.

PubMed

Mazzetto-Betti, K C; Amâncio, A C G; Farina, J A; Barros, M E P M; Fonseca, M C R

2009-08-01

High-voltage electric injuries have many manifestations, and an important complication is the damage of the central/peripheral nervous system. The purpose of this work was to assess the upper limb dysfunction in patients injured by high-voltage current. The evaluation consisted of analysis of patients' records, cutaneous-sensibility threshold, handgrip and pinch strength and a specific questionnaire about upper limb dysfunctions (DASH) in 18 subjects. All subjects were men; the average age at the time of the injury was 38 years. Of these, 72% changed job/retired after the injury. The current entrance was the hand in 94% and grounding in the lower limb in 78%. The average burned surface area (BSA) was 8.6%. The handgrip strength of the injured limb was reduced (p<0.05) and so also that of the three pinch types. The relationship between the handgrip strength and the DASH was statistically significant (p<0.001) as well as the relationship between the three pinch types (p

High-pressure infrared sepctra of alpha-quartz, coesite, stishovite and silica glass

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Williams, Q.; Hemley, R. J.; Kruger, M. B.; Jeanloz, R.

1993-01-01

High-pressure infrared absorption spectra of alpha-quatz, coesite, stishovite, and SiO2 glass are consistent with the primary compression mechanism of the initially tetrahedrally bonded phases being the bending of the Si-O-Si angle at pressures less than 10-20 GPa. At higher pressures, up to 40 GPa, we observe a decline in the intensity of the infrared SiO4 asymmetric-stretching vibrations of all three phases, with an increase in the relative amplitude between 700 and 900/cm. This change in intensities is attributed to an increase in the average coordination number of silicon through extreme distortion of tetrahedra. At pressures above approximately 20 GPa, the low-pressure crystalline polymorphs gradually become amorphous, and the infrared spectra provide evidence for an increase in silicon coordination in these high-density amorphous phases. The pressure-amorphized samples prepared from quartz and coesite differ structurally both from each other and from silica glass that has been compressed, and the high pressure spectra indicate that these materials are considerably more disordered than stishovite under comparable pressure conditions. Average mode Grueneisen parameters calculated for quartz, stishovite and fused silica from both infrared and Raman spectra are compatible with the corresponding thermodynamic value of the Grueneisen parameter, however, that of coesite is significantly discrepant.

Advanced Ultrasonic Diagnosis of Extremity Trauma: The Faster Exam

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dulchavsky, S. A.; Henry, S. E.; Moed, B. R.; Diebel, L. N.; Marshburn, T.; Hamilton, D. R.; Logan, J.; Kirkpatrick, A. W.; Williams, D. R.

2002-01-01

Ultrasound is of prO)len accuracy in abdominal and thoracic trauma and may be useful to diagnose extremity injury in situations where radiography is not available such as military and space applications. We prospectively evaluated the utility of extremity , ultrasound performed by trained, non-physician personnel in patients with extremity trauma, to simulate remote aerospace or military applications . Methods: Patients with extremity trauma were identified by history, physical examination, and radiographic studies. Ultrasound examination was performed bilaterally by nonphysician personnel with a portable ultrasound device using a 10-5 MHz linear probe, Images were video-recorded for later analysis against radiography by Fisher's exact test. The average time of examination was 4 minutes. Ultrasound accurately diagnosed extremity, injury in 94% of patients with no false positive exams; accuracy was greater in mid-shaft locations and least in the metacarpa/metatarsals. Soft tissue/tendon injury was readily visualized . Extremity ultrasound can be performed quickly and accurately by nonphysician personnel with excellent accuracy. Blinded verification of the utility of ultrasound in patients with extremity injury should be done to determine if Extremity and Respiratory evaluation should be added to the FAST examination (the FASTER exam) and verify the technique in remote locations such as military and aerospace applications.

Lower Extremity Stiffness Changes after Concussion in Collegiate Football Players.

PubMed

Dubose, Dominique F; Herman, Daniel C; Jones, Deborah L; Tillman, Susan M; Clugston, James R; Pass, Anthony; Hernandez, Jorge A; Vasilopoulos, Terrie; Horodyski, Marybeth; Chmielewski, Terese L

2017-01-01

Recent research indicates that a concussion increases the risk of musculoskeletal injury. Neuromuscular changes after concussion might contribute to the increased risk of injury. Many studies have examined gait postconcussion, but few studies have examined more demanding tasks. This study compared changes in stiffness across the lower extremity, a measure of neuromuscular function, during a jump-landing task in athletes with a concussion (CONC) to uninjured athletes (UNINJ). Division I football players (13 CONC and 26 UNINJ) were tested pre- and postseason. A motion capture system recorded subjects jumping on one limb from a 25.4-cm step onto a force plate. Hip, knee, and ankle joint stiffness were calculated from initial contact to peak joint flexion using the regression line slopes of the joint moment versus the joint angle plots. Leg stiffness was (peak vertical ground reaction force [PVGRF]/lower extremity vertical displacement) from initial contact to peak vertical ground reaction force. All stiffness values were normalized to body weight. Values from both limbs were averaged. General linear models compared group (CONC, UNINJ) differences in the changes of pre- and postseason stiffness values. Average time from concussion to postseason testing was 49.9 d. The CONC group showed an increase in hip stiffness (P = 0.03), a decrease in knee (P = 0.03) and leg stiffness (P = 0.03), but no change in ankle stiffness (P = 0.65) from pre- to postseason. Lower extremity stiffness is altered after concussion, which could contribute to an increased risk of lower extremity injury. These data provide further evidence of altered neuromuscular function after concussion.

Lower Extremity Stiffness Changes following Concussion in Collegiate Football Players

PubMed Central

DuBose, Dominique F.; Herman, Daniel C.; Jones, Debi L.; Tillman, Susan M.; Clugston, James R.; Pass, Anthony; Hernandez, Jorge A.; Vasilopoulos, Terrie; Horodyski, MaryBeth; Chmielewski, Terese L.

2016-01-01

Purpose Recent research indicates that a concussion increases risk of musculoskeletal injury. Neuromuscular changes following concussion might contribute to the increased risk of injury. Many studies have examined gait post-concussion, but few studies have examined more demanding tasks. This study compared changes in stiffness across the lower extremity, a measure of neuromuscular function, during a jump-landing task in athletes with a concussion (CONC) to uninjured athletes (UNINJ). Methods Division I football players (13 CONC, 26 UNINJ) were tested pre- and post-season. A motion-capture system recorded subjects jumping on one limb from a 25.4 cm step onto a force plate. Hip, knee, and ankle joint stiffness were calculated from initial contact to peak joint flexion using the regression line slopes of the joint moment versus joint angle plots. Leg stiffness was (peak vertical ground reaction force (PVGRF)/lower extremity vertical displacement) from initial contact to PVGRF. All stiffness values were normalized to bodyweight. Values from both limbs were averaged. General linear models compared group (CONC, UNINJ) differences in the changes of pre- and post-season stiffness values. Results Average time from concussion to post-season testing was 49.9 days. The CONC group showed an increase in hip stiffness (p=0.03), a decrease in knee (p=0.03) and leg stiffness (p=0.03), but no change in ankle stiffness (p=0.65) from pre- to post-season. Conclusion Lower extremity stiffness is altered following concussion, which could contribute to an increased risk of lower extremity injury. These data provide further evidence of altered neuromuscular function after concussion. PMID:27501359

Mortality gradients within and among dominant plant populations as barometers of ecosystem change during extreme drought.

PubMed

Gitlin, Alicyn R; Sthultz, Christopher M; Bowker, Matthew A; Stumpf, Stacy; Paxton, Kristina L; Kennedy, Karla; Muñoz, Axhel; Bailey, Joseph K; Whitham, Thomas G

2006-10-01

Understanding patterns of plant population mortality during extreme weather events is important to conservation planners because the frequency of such events is expected to increase, creating the need to integrate climatic uncertainty into management. Dominant plants provide habitat and ecosystem structure, so changes in their distribution can be expected to have cascading effects on entire communities. Observing areas that respond quickly to climate fluctuations provides foresight into future ecological changes and will help prioritize conservation efforts. We investigated patterns of mortality in six dominant plant species during a drought in the southwestern United States. We quantified population mortality for each species across its regional distribution and tested hypotheses to identify ecological stress gradients for each species. Our results revealed three major patterns: (1) dominant species from diverse habitat types (i.e., riparian, chaparral, and low- to high-elevation forests) exhibited significant mortality, indicating that the effects of drought were widespread; (2) average mortality differed among dominant species (one-seed juniper[Juniperus monosperma (Engelm.) Sarg.] 3.3%; manzanita[Arctostaphylos pungens Kunth], 14.6%; quaking aspen[Populus tremuloides Michx.], 15.4%; ponderosa pine[Pinus ponderosa P. & C. Lawson], 15.9%; Fremont cottonwood[Populus fremontii S. Wats.], 20.7%; and pinyon pine[Pinus edulis Engelm.], 41.4%); (3) all dominant species showed localized patterns of very high mortality (24-100%) consistent with water stress gradients. Land managers should plan for climatic uncertainty by promoting tree recruitment in rare habitat types, alleviating unnatural levels of competition on dominant plants, and conserving sites across water stress gradients. High-stress sites, such as those we examined, have conservation value as barometers of change and because they may harbor genotypes that are adapted to climatic extremes.

Riparian responses to extreme climate and land-use change scenarios.

PubMed

Fernandes, Maria Rosário; Segurado, Pedro; Jauch, Eduardo; Ferreira, Maria Teresa

2016-11-01

Climate change will induce alterations in the hydrological and landscape patterns with effects on riparian ecotones. In this study we assess the combined effect of an extreme climate and land-use change scenario on riparian woody structure and how this will translate into a future risk of riparian functionality loss. The study was conducted in the Tâmega catchment of the Douro basin. Boosted Regression Trees (BRTs) were used to model two riparian landscape indicators related with the degree of connectivity (Mean Width) and complexity (Area Weighted Mean Patch Fractal Dimension). Riparian data were extracted by planimetric analysis of high spatial-resolution Word Imagery Layer (ESRI). Hydrological, climatic and land-use variables were obtained from available datasets and generated with process-based modeling using current climate data (2008-2014), while also considering the high-end RCP8.5 climate-change and "Icarus" socio-economic scenarios for the 2046-2065 time slice. Our results show that hydrological and land-use changes strongly influence future projections of riparian connectivity and complexity, albeit to diverse degrees and with differing effects. A harsh reduction in average flows may impair riparian zones while an increase in extreme rain events may benefit connectivity by promoting hydrologic dynamics with the surrounding floodplains. The expected increase in broad-leaved woodlands and mixed forests may enhance the riparian galleries by reducing the agricultural pressure on the area in the vicinity of the river. According to our results, 63% of river segments in the Tâmega basin exhibited a moderate risk of functionality loss, 16% a high risk, and 21% no risk. Weaknesses and strengths of the method are highlighted and results are discussed based on a resilience perspective with regard to riparian ecosystems. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A COMPARATIVE STUDY OF KNOTS OF STAR FORMATION IN INTERACTING VERSUS SPIRAL GALAXIES

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Smith, Beverly J.; Olmsted, Susan; Jones, Keith

2016-03-15

Interacting galaxies are known to have higher global rates of star formation on average than normal galaxies, relative to their stellar masses. Using UV and IR photometry combined with new and published Hα images, we have compared the star formation rates (SFRs) of ∼700 star forming complexes in 46 nearby interacting galaxy pairs with those of regions in 39 normal spiral galaxies. The interacting galaxies have proportionally more regions with high SFRs than the spirals. The most extreme regions in the interacting systems lie at the intersections of spiral/tidal structures, where gas is expected to pile up and trigger starmore » formation. Published Hubble Space Telescope images show unusually large and luminous star clusters in the highest luminosity regions. The SFRs of the clumps correlate with measures of the dust attenuation, consistent with the idea that regions with more interstellar gas have more star formation. For the clumps with the highest SFRs, the apparent dust attenuation is consistent with the Calzetti starburst dust attenuation law. This suggests that the high luminosity regions are dominated by a central group of young stars surrounded by a shell of clumpy interstellar gas. In contrast, the lower luminosity clumps are bright in the UV relative to Hα, suggesting either a high differential attenuation between the ionized gas and the stars, or a post-starburst population bright in the UV but faded in Hα. The fraction of the global light of the galaxies in the clumps is higher on average for the interacting galaxies than for the spirals. Thus either star formation in interacting galaxies is “clumpier” on average, or the star forming regions in interacting galaxies are more luminous, dustier, or younger on average.« less

Effects of P Element Insertions on Quantitative Traits in Drosophila Melanogaster

PubMed Central

Mackay, TFC.; Lyman, R. F.; Jackson, M. S.

1992-01-01

P element mutagenesis was used to construct 94 third chromosome lines of Drosophila melanogaster which contained on average 3.1 stable P element inserts, in an inbred host strain background previously free of P elements. The homozygous and heterozygous effects of the inserts on viability and abdominal and sternopleural bristle number were ascertained by comparing the chromosome lines with inserts to insert-free control lines of the inbred host strain. P elements reduced average homozygous viability by 12.2% per insert and average heterozygous viability by 5.5% per insert, and induced recessive lethal mutations at a rate of 3.8% per insert. Mutational variation for the bristle traits averaged over both sexes was 0.03V(e) per homozygous P insert and 0.003V(e) per heterozygous P insert, where V(e) is the environmental variance. Mutational variation was greater for the sexes considered separately because inserts had large pleiotropic effects on sex dimorphism of bristle characters. The distributions of homozygous effects of inserts on the bristle traits were asymmetrical, with the largest effects in the direction of reducing bristle number; and highly leptokurtic, with most of the increase in variance contributed by a few lines with large effects. The inserts had partially recessive effects on the bristle traits. Insert lines with extreme bristle effects had on average greatly reduced viability. PMID:1311697

Costs of necrotizing enterocolitis and cost-effectiveness of exclusively human milk-based products in feeding extremely premature infants.

PubMed

Ganapathy, Vaidyanathan; Hay, Joel W; Kim, Jae H

2012-02-01

This study evaluated the cost-effectiveness of a 100% human milk-based diet composed of mother's milk fortified with a donor human milk-based human milk fortifier (HMF) versus mother's milk fortified with bovine milk-based HMF to initiate enteral nutrition among extremely premature infants in the neonatal intensive care unit (NICU). A net expected costs calculator was developed to compare the total NICU costs among extremely premature infants who were fed either a bovine milk-based HMF-fortified diet or a 100% human milk-based diet, based on the previously observed risks of overall necrotizing enterocolitis (NEC) and surgical NEC in a randomized controlled study that compared outcomes of these two feeding strategies among 207 very low birth weight infants. The average NICU costs for an extremely premature infant without NEC and the incremental costs due to medical and surgical NEC were derived from a separate analysis of hospital discharges in the state of California in 2007. The sensitivity of cost-effectiveness results to the risks and costs of NEC and to prices of milk supplements was studied. The adjusted incremental costs of medical NEC and surgical NEC over and above the average costs incurred for extremely premature infants without NEC, in 2011 US$, were $74,004 (95% confidence interval, $47,051-$100,957) and $198,040 (95% confidence interval, $159,261-$236,819) per infant, respectively. Extremely premature infants fed with 100% human-milk based products had lower expected NICU length of stay and total expected costs of hospitalization, resulting in net direct savings of 3.9 NICU days and $8,167.17 (95% confidence interval, $4,405-$11,930) per extremely premature infant (p < 0.0001). Costs savings from the donor HMF strategy were sensitive to price and quantity of donor HMF, percentage reduction in risk of overall NEC and surgical NEC achieved, and incremental costs of surgical NEC. Compared with feeding extremely premature infants with mother's milk fortified with bovine milk-based supplements, a 100% human milk-based diet that includes mother's milk fortified with donor human milk-based HMF may result in potential net savings on medical care resources by preventing NEC.

Wearable Accelerometers in High Performance Jet Aircraft.

PubMed

Rice, G Merrill; VanBrunt, Thomas B; Snider, Dallas H; Hoyt, Robert E

2016-02-01

Wearable accelerometers have become ubiquitous in the fields of exercise physiology and ambulatory hospital settings. However, these devices have yet to be validated in extreme operational environments. The objective of this study was to correlate the gravitational forces (G forces) detected by wearable accelerometers with the G forces detected by high performance aircraft. We compared the in-flight G forces detected by the two commercially available portable accelerometers to the F/A-18 Carrier Aircraft Inertial Navigation System (CAINS-2) during 20 flights performed by the Navy's Flight Demonstration Squadron (Blue Angels). Postflight questionnaires were also used to assess the perception of distractibility during flight. Of the 20 flights analyzed, 10 complete in-flight comparisons were made, accounting for 25,700 s of correlation between the CAINS-2 and the two tested accelerometers. Both accelerometers had strong correlations with that of the F/A-18 Gz axis, averaging r = 0.92 and r = 0.93, respectively, over 10 flights. Comparison of both portable accelerometer's average vector magnitude to each other yielded an average correlation of r = 0.93. Both accelerometers were found to be minimally distracting. These results suggest the use of wearable accelerometers is a valid means of detecting G forces during high performance aircraft flight. Future studies using this surrogate method of detecting accelerative forces combined with physiological information may yield valuable in-flight normative data that heretofore has been technically difficult to obtain and hence holds the promise of opening the door for a new golden age of aeromedical research.

[Direct medical costs of hospital treatment of fractures of the upper extremity of the femur].

PubMed

El Ayoubi, Abdelghani; Bouhelo, Kevin Parfait Bienvenu; Chafik, Hachem; Nasri, Mohammed; El Idrissi, Mohammed; Shimi, Mohammed; El Ibrahimi, Abdelhalim; Elmrini, Abdelmajid

2017-01-01

Fractures of the upper extremity of the femur are serious because of their morbidity and social and/or economic consequences. They have been the subject of several studies of world literature concerning their hospital treatment, evolution and prevention. The increase in the incidence of this pathology seems unavoidable due to population ageing and to the lengthening life expectancy; it is posing a real long-term public health problem whose importance will be further increased by the need to control health care costs. The results of this study show that the average age of onset of fracture of the proximal extremity of the femur is 68,13 ± 16.9 years, with a male predominance and a sex ratio of 1.14. In our study pertrochanterian fractures represented 69.4% of cases. Direct medical costs of the hospital treatment of fractures of the upper extremity of the femur at the Hassan II University Hospital were £387 714,38 in 222 cases, with an average cost of £1757,4 , including costs for patient's stay in hospital, which represented the majority of expenses ( 77% of total costs). It is desirable to raise staff awareness of the costs of consumables in order to reduce treatment costs and to adopt cost-oriented behaviour. Length of stay should be limited to the maximum extent because it only allows to reduce staff and accommodation costs.

Robust increase in extreme summer rainfall intensity during the past four decades observed in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xiao, Chan; Wu, Peili; Zhang, Lixia; Song, Lianchun

2016-12-01

Global warming increases the moisture holding capacity of the atmosphere and consequently the potential risks of extreme rainfall. Here we show that maximum hourly summer rainfall intensity has increased by about 11.2% on average, using continuous hourly gauge records for 1971-2013 from 721 weather stations in China. The corresponding event accumulated precipitation has on average increased by more than 10% aided by a small positive trend in events duration. Linear regression of the 95th percentile daily precipitation intensity with daily mean surface air temperature shows a negative scaling of -9.6%/K, in contrast to a positive scaling of 10.6%/K for hourly data. This is made up of a positive scaling below the summer mean temperature and a negative scaling above. Using seasonal means instead of daily means, we find a consistent scaling rate for the region of 6.7-7%/K for both daily and hourly precipitation extremes, about 10% higher than the regional Clausius-Clapeyron scaling of 6.1%/K based on a mean temperature of 24.6 °C. With up to 18% further increase in extreme precipitation under continuing global warming towards the IPCC’s 1.5 °C target, risks of flash floods will exacerbate on top of the current incapability of urban drainage systems in a rapidly urbanizing China.

Identification of large-scale meteorological patterns associated with extreme precipitation in the US northeast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Agel, Laurie; Barlow, Mathew; Feldstein, Steven B.; Gutowski, William J.

2018-03-01

Patterns of daily large-scale circulation associated with Northeast US extreme precipitation are identified using both k-means clustering (KMC) and Self-Organizing Maps (SOM) applied to tropopause height. The tropopause height provides a compact representation of the upper-tropospheric potential vorticity, which is closely related to the overall evolution and intensity of weather systems. Extreme precipitation is defined as the top 1% of daily wet-day observations at 35 Northeast stations, 1979-2008. KMC is applied on extreme precipitation days only, while the SOM algorithm is applied to all days in order to place the extreme results into the overall context of patterns for all days. Six tropopause patterns are identified through KMC for extreme day precipitation: a summertime tropopause ridge, a summertime shallow trough/ridge, a summertime shallow eastern US trough, a deeper wintertime eastern US trough, and two versions of a deep cold-weather trough located across the east-central US. Thirty SOM patterns for all days are identified. Results for all days show that 6 SOM patterns account for almost half of the extreme days, although extreme precipitation occurs in all SOM patterns. The same SOM patterns associated with extreme precipitation also routinely produce non-extreme precipitation; however, on extreme precipitation days the troughs, on average, are deeper and the downstream ridges more pronounced. Analysis of other fields associated with the large-scale patterns show various degrees of anomalously strong moisture transport preceding, and upward motion during, extreme precipitation events.

Large-Scale Meteorological Patterns Associated with Extreme Precipitation in the US Northeast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Agel, L. A.; Barlow, M. A.

2016-12-01

Patterns of daily large-scale circulation associated with Northeast US extreme precipitation are identified using both k-means clustering (KMC) and Self-Organizing Maps (SOM) applied to tropopause height. Tropopause height provides a compact representation of large-scale circulation patterns, as it is linked to mid-level circulation, low-level thermal contrasts and low-level diabatic heating. Extreme precipitation is defined as the top 1% of daily wet-day observations at 35 Northeast stations, 1979-2008. KMC is applied on extreme precipitation days only, while the SOM algorithm is applied to all days in order to place the extreme results into a larger context. Six tropopause patterns are identified on extreme days: a summertime tropopause ridge, a summertime shallow trough/ridge, a summertime shallow eastern US trough, a deeper wintertime eastern US trough, and two versions of a deep cold-weather trough located across the east-central US. Thirty SOM patterns for all days are identified. Results for all days show that 6 SOM patterns account for almost half of the extreme days, although extreme precipitation occurs in all SOM patterns. The same SOM patterns associated with extreme precipitation also routinely produce non-extreme precipitation; however, on extreme precipitation days the troughs, on average, are deeper and the downstream ridges more pronounced. Analysis of other fields associated with the large-scale patterns show various degrees of anomalously strong upward motion during, and moisture transport preceding, extreme precipitation events.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bierbach, Jana; Yeung, Mark; Eckner, Erich

Surface high-harmonic generation in the relativistic regime is demonstrated as a source of extreme ultra-violet (XUV) pulses with extended operation time. Relativistic high-harmonic generation is driven by a frequency-doubled high-power Ti:Sapphire laser focused to a peak intensity of 3·1019 W/cm2 onto spooling tapes. We demonstrate continuous operation over up to one hour runtime at a repetition rate of 1 Hz. Harmonic spectra ranging from 20 eV to 70 eV (62 nm to 18 nm) were consecutively recorded by an XUV spectrometer. An average XUV pulse energy in the µJ range is measured. With the presented setup, relativistic surface high-harmonic generationmore » becomes a powerful source of coherent XUV pulses that might enable applications in, e.g. attosecond laser physics and the seeding of free-electron lasers, when the laser issues causing 80-% pulse energy fluctuations are overcome.« less

High average power, highly brilliant laser-produced plasma source for soft X-ray spectroscopy.

PubMed

Mantouvalou, Ioanna; Witte, Katharina; Grötzsch, Daniel; Neitzel, Michael; Günther, Sabrina; Baumann, Jonas; Jung, Robert; Stiel, Holger; Kanngiesser, Birgit; Sandner, Wolfgang

2015-03-01

In this work, a novel laser-produced plasma source is presented which delivers pulsed broadband soft X-radiation in the range between 100 and 1200 eV. The source was designed in view of long operating hours, high stability, and cost effectiveness. It relies on a rotating and translating metal target and achieves high stability through an on-line monitoring device using a four quadrant extreme ultraviolet diode in a pinhole camera arrangement. The source can be operated with three different laser pulse durations and various target materials and is equipped with two beamlines for simultaneous experiments. Characterization measurements are presented with special emphasis on the source position and emission stability of the source. As a first application, a near edge X-ray absorption fine structure measurement on a thin polyimide foil shows the potential of the source for soft X-ray spectroscopy.

Measuring skew in average surface roughness as a function of surface preparation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stahl, Mark T.

2015-08-01

Characterizing surface roughness is important for predicting optical performance. Better measurement of surface roughness reduces polishing time, saves money and allows the science requirements to be better defined. This study characterized statistics of average surface roughness as a function of polishing time. Average surface roughness was measured at 81 locations using a Zygo® white light interferometer at regular intervals during the polishing process. Each data set was fit to a normal and Largest Extreme Value (LEV) distribution; then tested for goodness of fit. We show that the skew in the average data changes as a function of polishing time.

Real-Time Human Detection for Aerial Captured Video Sequences via Deep Models.

PubMed

AlDahoul, Nouar; Md Sabri, Aznul Qalid; Mansoor, Ali Mohammed

2018-01-01

Human detection in videos plays an important role in various real life applications. Most of traditional approaches depend on utilizing handcrafted features which are problem-dependent and optimal for specific tasks. Moreover, they are highly susceptible to dynamical events such as illumination changes, camera jitter, and variations in object sizes. On the other hand, the proposed feature learning approaches are cheaper and easier because highly abstract and discriminative features can be produced automatically without the need of expert knowledge. In this paper, we utilize automatic feature learning methods which combine optical flow and three different deep models (i.e., supervised convolutional neural network (S-CNN), pretrained CNN feature extractor, and hierarchical extreme learning machine) for human detection in videos captured using a nonstatic camera on an aerial platform with varying altitudes. The models are trained and tested on the publicly available and highly challenging UCF-ARG aerial dataset. The comparison between these models in terms of training, testing accuracy, and learning speed is analyzed. The performance evaluation considers five human actions (digging, waving, throwing, walking, and running). Experimental results demonstrated that the proposed methods are successful for human detection task. Pretrained CNN produces an average accuracy of 98.09%. S-CNN produces an average accuracy of 95.6% with soft-max and 91.7% with Support Vector Machines (SVM). H-ELM has an average accuracy of 95.9%. Using a normal Central Processing Unit (CPU), H-ELM's training time takes 445 seconds. Learning in S-CNN takes 770 seconds with a high performance Graphical Processing Unit (GPU).

Causes and Consequences of Exceptional North Atlantic Heat Loss in Recent Winters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Josey, Simon; Grist, Jeremy; Duchez, Aurelie; Frajka-Williams, Eleanor; Hirschi, Joel; Marsh, Robert; Sinha, Bablu

2016-04-01

The mid-high latitude North Atlantic loses large amounts of heat to the atmosphere in winter leading to dense water formation. An examination of reanalysis datasets (ERA-Interim, NCEP/NCAR) reveals that heat loss in the recent winters 2013-14 and 2014-15 was exceptionally strong. The causes and consequences of this extraordinary ocean heat loss will be discussed. In 2013-2014, the net air-sea heat flux anomaly averaged over the whole winter exceeded 100 Wm-2 in the eastern subpolar gyre (the most extreme in the period since 1979 spanned by ERA-Interim). The causes of this extreme heat loss will be shown to be severe latent and sensible heat fluxes driven primarily by anomalously strong westerly airflows from North America and northerly airflows originating in the Nordic Seas. The associated sea level pressure anomaly field reflects the dominance of the second mode of atmospheric variability, the East Atlantic Pattern (EAP) over the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in this winter. The extreme winter heat loss had a significant impact on the ocean extending from the sea surface into the deeper layers and a re-emergent cold Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomaly is evident in November 2014. The following winter 2014-15 experienced further extreme heat loss that served to amplify the strength of the re-emergent SST anomaly. By summer 2015, an unprecedented cold mid-latitude North Atlantic Ocean surface temperature anomaly is evident in observations and has been widely referred to as the 'big blue blob'. The role played by the extreme surface heat loss in the preceding winters in generating this feature and it subsequent evolution through winter 2015-16 will be explored.

Influence of hurricane-related activity on North American extreme precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barlow, Mathew

2010-05-01

Individual hurricanes and their remnants can produce exceptionally intense rainfall, and the associated flooding, even independent of storm surge, is one of the leading causes of hurricane-related death in the U.S. Despite the catastrophic societal costs of hurricanes and the considerable recent attention to possible trends in strength and number, little is known about the general contribution of hurricane-related activity to extreme precipitation over North America and the underlying dynamical mechanisms. Here we show, based on a 25-year observational analysis, that there are important contributions to the occurrence of extreme precipitation events over more than half of North America, including a pronounced signal over northern and inland areas, associated with an average span of influence that extends to several hundred kilometers. Large-scale vertical velocity, maximum wind speed, and tropical/extratropical character are important factors in the strength and range of influence, and the pattern of influence depends on whether an absolute or relative measure of precipitation is considered. Associated changes in stability, moisture, and vertical motion are analyzed to investigate the dynamics of the influence: the largest changes are in vertical motion, with the hurricane-related activity bringing deep tropical values even to inland and high latitude areas, consistent with the occurrence of very heavy, tropical-like precipitation. While the maximum contribution of hurricane-related activity to mean precipitation is generally less than 25% even for the most-affected coastal regions, the contribution to extreme events is much larger: well over 50% for several regions and exceeding 25% for large swaths of the continent. Typical track density plots do not capture the activity's influence on extreme precipitation.

Friction and oxidative wear of 440C ball bearing steels under high load and extreme bulk temperatures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chaudhuri, Dilip K.; Slifka, Andrew J.; Siegwarth, James D.

1993-01-01

Unlubricated sliding friction and wear of 440C steels in an oxygen environment have been studied under a variety of load, speed, and temperature ranging from approximately -185 to 675 deg C. A specially designed test apparatus with a ball-on-flat geometry has been used for this purpose. The observed dependencies of the initial coefficient of friction, the average dynamic coefficient of friction, and the wear rate on load, speed, and test temperatures have been examined from the standpoint of existing theories of friction and wear. High contact temperatures are generated during the sliding friction, causing rapid oxidation and localized surface melting. A combination of fatigue, delamination, and loss of hardness due to tempering of the martensitic structure is responsible for the high wear rate observed and the coefficient of friction.

Computer Games as Therapy for Persons with Stroke.

PubMed

Lauterbach, Sarah A; Foreman, Matt H; Engsberg, Jack R

2013-02-01

Stroke affects approximately 800,000 individuals each year, with 65% having residual impairments. Studies have demonstrated that mass practice leads to regaining motor function in affected extremities; however, traditional therapy does not include the repetitions needed for this recovery. Videogames have been shown to be good motivators to complete repetitions. Advances in technology and low-cost hardware bring new opportunities to use computer games during stroke therapy. This study examined the use of the Microsoft (Redmond, WA) Kinect™ and Flexible Action and Articulated Skeleton Toolkit (FAAST) software as a therapy tool to play existing free computer games on the Internet. Three participants attended a 1-hour session where they played two games with upper extremity movements as game controls. Video was taken for analysis of movement repetitions, and questions were answered about participant history and their perceptions of the games. Participants remained engaged through both games; regardless of previous computer use all participants successfully played two games. Five minutes of game play averaged 34 repetitions of the affected extremity. The Intrinsic Motivation Inventory showed a high level of satisfaction in two of the three participants. The Kinect Sensor with the FAAST software has the potential to be an economical tool to be used alongside traditional therapy to increase the number of repetitions completed in a motivating and engaging way for clients.

Correlates of firesetting in a community sample of young adolescents.

PubMed

Martin, Graham; Bergen, Helen A; Richardson, Angela S; Roeger, Leigh; Allison, Stephen

2004-03-01

To investigate relationships between firesetting, antisocial behaviour, individual, family and parenting factors in a large community sample of adolescents. A cross-sectional study of students (n = 2596) aged 13 years on average, from 27 schools in South Australia with a questionnaire on firesetting, antisocial behaviour (adapted 21-item Self Report Delinquency Scale), risk-taking, drug use, suicidality, physical and sexual abuse, depressive symptomatology, hopelessness, anxiety, locus of control, self-esteem, family functioning (McMaster Family Assessment Device) and parenting style (Influential Relationships Questionnaire). Data analysis included chi2, anova and logistic regression. Large significant differences are found between firesetters and non-firesetters on all measures. Among adolescents with serious levels of antisocial behaviour (7+ acts included in diagnostic guidelines for DSM-IV conduct disorder), firesetters differ from non-firesetters in reporting more extreme antisocial behaviour (10+ acts), extreme drug use, suicidal behaviour, and perceived failure at school. Gender differences are apparent. A study limitation is the single item assessment of firesetting. Self-report firesetting is strongly associated with extreme antisocial behaviour in young community adolescents, in support of existing evidence from incarcerated delinquent and psychiatric populations. Early detection of community firesetters demands further assessment and intervention. Clinicians should consider its coexistence with serious drug use and high risk-taking (especially in girls), and suicidality, sexual and physical abuse (in boys).

Muscular Activation During Plyometric Exercises in 90° of Glenohumeral Joint Abduction

PubMed Central

Ellenbecker, Todd S.; Sueyoshi, Tetsuro; Bailie, David S.

2015-01-01

Background: Plyometric exercises are frequently used to increase posterior rotator cuff and periscapular muscle strength and simulate demands and positional stresses in overhead athletes. The purpose of this study was to provide descriptive data on posterior rotator cuff and scapular muscle activation during upper extremity plyometric exercises in 90° of glenohumeral joint abduction. Hypothesis: Levels of muscular activity in the posterior rotator cuff and scapular stabilizers will be high during plyometric shoulder exercises similar to previously reported electromyographic (EMG) levels of shoulder rehabilitation exercises. Study Design: Descriptive laboratory study. Methods: Twenty healthy subjects were tested using surface EMG during the performance of 2 plyometric shoulder exercises: prone external rotation (PERP) and reverse catch external rotation (RCP) using a handheld medicine ball. Electrode application included the upper and lower trapezius (UT and LT, respectively), serratus anterior (SA), infraspinatus (IN), and the middle and posterior deltoid (MD and PD, respectively) muscles. A 10-second interval of repetitive plyometric exercise (PERP) and 3 repetitions of RCP were sampled. Peak and average normalized EMG data were generated. Results: Normalized peak and average IN activity ranged between 73% and 102% and between 28% and 52% during the plyometric exercises, respectively, with peak and average LT activity measured between 79% and 131% and between 31% and 61%. SA activity ranged between 76% and 86% for peak and between 35% and 37% for average activity. Muscular activity levels in the MD and PD ranged between 49% and 72% and between 12% and 33% for peak and average, respectively. Conclusion: Moderate to high levels of muscular activity were measured in the rotator cuff and scapular stabilizers during these plyometric exercises with the glenohumeral joint abducted 90°. PMID:25553216

Muscular activation during plyometric exercises in 90° of glenohumeral joint abduction.

PubMed

Ellenbecker, Todd S; Sueyoshi, Tetsuro; Bailie, David S

2015-01-01

Plyometric exercises are frequently used to increase posterior rotator cuff and periscapular muscle strength and simulate demands and positional stresses in overhead athletes. The purpose of this study was to provide descriptive data on posterior rotator cuff and scapular muscle activation during upper extremity plyometric exercises in 90° of glenohumeral joint abduction. Levels of muscular activity in the posterior rotator cuff and scapular stabilizers will be high during plyometric shoulder exercises similar to previously reported electromyographic (EMG) levels of shoulder rehabilitation exercises. Descriptive laboratory study. Twenty healthy subjects were tested using surface EMG during the performance of 2 plyometric shoulder exercises: prone external rotation (PERP) and reverse catch external rotation (RCP) using a handheld medicine ball. Electrode application included the upper and lower trapezius (UT and LT, respectively), serratus anterior (SA), infraspinatus (IN), and the middle and posterior deltoid (MD and PD, respectively) muscles. A 10-second interval of repetitive plyometric exercise (PERP) and 3 repetitions of RCP were sampled. Peak and average normalized EMG data were generated. Normalized peak and average IN activity ranged between 73% and 102% and between 28% and 52% during the plyometric exercises, respectively, with peak and average LT activity measured between 79% and 131% and between 31% and 61%. SA activity ranged between 76% and 86% for peak and between 35% and 37% for average activity. Muscular activity levels in the MD and PD ranged between 49% and 72% and between 12% and 33% for peak and average, respectively. Moderate to high levels of muscular activity were measured in the rotator cuff and scapular stabilizers during these plyometric exercises with the glenohumeral joint abducted 90°.

10 CFR 960.5-2-3 - Meteorology.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... operation and closure will not be likely to lead to radionuclide releases to an unrestricted area greater... with higher population densities than are the average for the region. (2) History of extreme weather...

10 CFR 960.5-2-3 - Meteorology.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... operation and closure will not be likely to lead to radionuclide releases to an unrestricted area greater... with higher population densities than are the average for the region. (2) History of extreme weather...

10 CFR 960.5-2-3 - Meteorology.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... operation and closure will not be likely to lead to radionuclide releases to an unrestricted area greater... with higher population densities than are the average for the region. (2) History of extreme weather...

The social class gradient in health in Spain and the health status of the Spanish Roma.

PubMed

La Parra Casado, Daniel; Gil González, Diana; de la Torre Esteve, María

2016-10-01

To determine the social class gradient in health in general Spain population and the health status of the Spanish Roma. The National Health Survey of Spanish Roma 2006 (sample size = 993 people; average age: 33.6 years; 53.1% women) and the National Health Surveys for Spain 2003 (sample size: 21,650 people; average age: 45.5 years; 51.2% women) and 2006 (sample size: 29,478 people; average age: 46 years; 50.7% women) are compared. Several indicators were chosen: self-perceived health, activity limitation, chronic diseases, hearing and sight problems, caries, and obesity. Analysis was based on age-standardised rates and logistic regression models. According to most indicators, Roma's health is worse than that of social class IV-V (manual workers). Some indicators show a remarkable difference between Roma and social class IV-V: experiencing three or more health problems, sight problems, and caries, in both sexes, and hearing problems and obesity, in women. Roma people are placed on an extreme position on the social gradient in health, a situation of extreme health inequality.

Clinical outcomes of the Cadenat procedure in the treatment of acromioclavicular joint dislocations.

PubMed

Moriyama, Hiroaki; Gotoh, Masafumi; Mitsui, Yasuhiro; Yoshikawa, Eiichirou; Uryu, Takuya; Okawa, Takahiro; Higuchi, Fujio; Shirahama, Masahiro; Shiba, Naoto

2014-01-01

We report our clinical experience using the modified Cadenat method to treat acromioclavicular joint dislocation, and discuss the usefulness of this method. This study examined 6 shoulders in 6 patients (5 males, 1 female) who were diagnosed with acromioclavicular joint dislocation and treated with the modified Cadenat method at our hospital. Average age at onset was 49.3 years (26-78 years), average time interval from injury until surgery was 263.8 days (10 to 1100 days), and the average follow-up period was 21.7 months (12 to 42 months). Post-operative assessment was performed using plain radiographs to determine shoulder joint dislocation rate and Japanese Orthopaedic Association (JOA) score. The average post-operative JOA score was 94.1 points (91 to 100 points). The acromioclavicular joint dislocation rate improved from 148.7% (72 to 236%) before surgery to 28.6% (0 to 60%) after surgery. Conservative treatment has been reported to achieve good outcomes in acromioclavicular joint dislocations. However, many patients also experience chronic pain or a sensation of fatigue upon putting the extremity in an elevated posture, and therefore ensuring the stability of the acromioclavicular joint is crucial for highly active patients. In this study, we treated acromioclavicular joint dislocations by the modified Cadenat method, and were able to achieve favorable outcomes.

Characteristics of Riverine DIN Export in Subtropical High-standing Island, Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, J. C.; Kao, S. J.; Lee, T. Y.; Lin, T. C.

2016-12-01

Increases in nitrogen (N) availability and mobility resulting from anthropogenic activities has substantially altered nitrogen cycle both locally and globally. Taiwan characterized by the subtropical montane landscape with abundant rainfall, downwind to the most rapidly industrializing east coast of China can be a demonstration site for extreme high N input and riverine DIN (dissolved inorganic N) export. We used 49 watersheds with similar climatic and landscape settings, but classified into low-, moderate-, and highly-disturbed categories based on population density to illustrate their differences in nitrogen inputs through atmospheric N deposition, synthetic fertilizer and human emission and DIN export ratios. Our results showed that the island-wide average riverine DIN export is 3800 kg-N/km2yr, approximately 18-fold higher than the global average mostly due to the large input of synthetic fertilizer. The average riverine DIN export ratio is 0.30-0.51, which is much higher than the average of 0.20-0.25 of large rivers around the world indicating excessive N input relative to ecosystem demand or retention capacity. The low-disturbed watersheds despite of high input only export 0.06-0.18 of the input and well buffered to changes in input quantity suggesting high efficiency of nitrogen usage or high N retention capacity of the less disturbed watersheds. The moderate-disturbed watersheds show a linear increase of output with increases in total N inputs and a mean DIN export ratio of 0.20 to 0.31. The main differences in land use between low and moderately disturbed watershed are the relative proportions of agricultural land and forests, not the built-up lands. The export ratio of the highly-disturbed watersheds is 0.42-0.53, which is very high and suggests that much of the N input is transported downstream. The increases in riverine DIN export ratio along with the gradient of human disturbance in subtropical Taiwan shows a gradient in excess N saturation. Our results help to understand factors controlling riverine DIN export and provide a sound basis for N emissions/pollution control.

A novel tool for continuous fracture aftercare - Clinical feasibility and first results of a new telemetric gait analysis insole.

PubMed

Braun, Benedikt J; Bushuven, Eva; Hell, Rebecca; Veith, Nils T; Buschbaum, Jan; Holstein, Joerg H; Pohlemann, Tim

2016-02-01

Weight bearing after lower extremity fractures still remains a highly controversial issue. Even in ankle fractures, the most common lower extremity injury no standard aftercare protocol has been established. Average non weight bearing times range from 0 to 7 weeks, with standardised, radiological healing controls at fixed time intervals. Recent literature calls for patient-adapted aftercare protocols based on individual fracture and load scenarios. We show the clinical feasibility and first results of a new, insole embedded gait analysis tool for continuous monitoring of gait, load and activity. Ten patients were monitored with a new, independent gait analysis insole for up to 3 months postoperatively. Strict 20 kg partial weight bearing was ordered for 6 weeks. Overall activity, load spectrum, ground reaction forces, clinical scoring and general health data were recorded and correlated. Statistical analysis with power analysis, t-test and Spearman correlation was performed. Only one patient completely adhered to the set weight bearing limit. Average time in minutes over the limit was 374 min. Based on the parameters load, activity, gait time over 20 kg weight bearing and maximum ground reaction force high and low performers were defined after 3 weeks. Significant difference in time to painless full weight bearing between high and low performers was shown. Correlation analysis revealed a significant correlation between weight bearing and clinical scoring as well as pain (American Orthopaedic Foot and Ankle Society (AOFAS) Score rs=0.74; Olerud-Molander Score rs=0.93; VAS pain rs=-0.95). Early, continuous gait analysis is able to define aftercare performers with significant differences in time to full painless weight bearing where clinical or radiographic controls could not. Patient compliance to standardised weight bearing limits and protocols is low. Highly individual rehabilitation patterns were seen in all patients. Aftercare protocols should be adjusted to real-time patient conditions, rather than fixed intervals and limits. With a real-time measuring device high performers could be identified and influenced towards optimal healing conditions early, while low performers are recognised and missing healing influences could be corrected according to patient condition. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Reliability of 3-Dimensional Measures of Single-Leg Drop Landing Across 3 Institutions: Implications for Multicenter Research for Secondary ACL-Injury Prevention.

PubMed

Myer, Gregory D; Bates, Nathaniel A; DiCesare, Christopher A; Barber Foss, Kim D; Thomas, Staci M; Wordeman, Samuel C; Sugimoto, Dai; Roewer, Benjamin D; Medina McKeon, Jennifer M; Di Stasi, Stephanie L; Noehren, Brian W; McNally, Michael; Ford, Kevin R; Kiefer, Adam W; Hewett, Timothy E

2015-05-01

Due to the limitations of single-center studies in achieving appropriate sampling with relatively rare disorders, multicenter collaborations have been proposed to achieve desired sampling levels. However, documented reliability of biomechanical data is necessary for multicenter injury-prevention studies and is currently unavailable. To measure the reliability of 3-dimensional (3D) biomechanical waveforms from kinetic and kinematic variables during a single-leg landing (SLL) performed at 3 separate testing facilities. Multicenter reliability study. 3 laboratories. 25 female junior varsity and varsity high school volleyball players who visited each facility over a 1-mo period. Subjects were instrumented with 43 reflective markers to record 3D motion as they performed SLLs. During the SLL the athlete balanced on 1 leg, dropped down off of a 31-cm-high box, and landed on the same leg. Kinematic and kinetic data from both legs were processed from 2 trials across the 3 laboratories. Coefficients of multiple correlations (CMC) were used to statistically compare each joint angle and moment waveform for the first 500 ms of landing. Average CMC for lower-extremity sagittal-plane motion was excellent between laboratories (hip .98, knee .95, ankle .99). Average CMC for lower-extremity frontal-plane motion was also excellent between laboratories (hip .98, knee .80, ankle .93). Kinetic waveforms were repeatable in each plane of rotation (3-center mean CMC ≥.71), while knee sagittal-plane moments were the most consistent measure across sites (3-center mean CMC ≥.94). CMC waveform comparisons were similar relative to the joint measured to previously published reports of between-sessions reliability of sagittal- and frontal-plane biomechanics performed at a single institution. Continued research is needed to further standardize technology and methods to help ensure that highly reliable results can be achieved with multicenter biomechanical screening models.

Modeling annual extreme temperature using generalized extreme value distribution: A case study in Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hasan, Husna; Salam, Norfatin; Kassim, Suraiya

2013-04-01

Extreme temperature of several stations in Malaysia is modeled by fitting the annual maximum to the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution. The Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) and Phillips Perron (PP) tests are used to detect stochastic trends among the stations. The Mann-Kendall (MK) test suggests a non-stationary model. Three models are considered for stations with trend and the Likelihood Ratio test is used to determine the best-fitting model. The results show that Subang and Bayan Lepas stations favour a model which is linear for the location parameters while Kota Kinabalu and Sibu stations are suitable with a model in the logarithm of the scale parameters. The return level is the level of events (maximum temperature) which is expected to be exceeded once, on average, in a given number of years, is obtained.

The origins of multifractality in financial time series and the effect of extreme events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Green, Elena; Hanan, William; Heffernan, Daniel

2014-06-01

This paper presents the results of multifractal testing of two sets of financial data: daily data of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) index and minutely data of the Euro Stoxx 50 index. Where multifractal scaling is found, the spectrum of scaling exponents is calculated via Multifractal Detrended Fluctuation Analysis. In both cases, further investigations reveal that the temporal correlations in the data are a more significant source of the multifractal scaling than are the distributions of the returns. It is also shown that the extreme events which make up the heavy tails of the distribution of the Euro Stoxx 50 log returns distort the scaling in the data set. The most extreme events are inimical to the scaling regime. This result is in contrast to previous findings that extreme events contribute to multifractality.

Self-Reported Extremely Adverse Life Events and Longitudinal Changes in Five-Factor Model Personality Traits in an Urban Sample

PubMed Central

Löckenhoff, Corinna E.; Terracciano, Antonio; Patriciu, Nicholas S.; Eaton, William W.; Costa, Paul T.

2009-01-01

This study examined longitudinal personality change in response to extremely adverse life events in a sample (N = 458) drawn from the East Baltimore Epidemiologic Catchment Area study. Five-factor model personality traits were assessed twice over an average interval of 8 years. Twenty-five percent of the participants reported an extremely horrifying or frightening event within 2 years before the second personality assessment. Relative to the rest of the sample, they showed increases in neuroticism, decreases in the compliance facet of agreeableness, and decreases in openness to values. Baseline personality was unrelated to future events, but among participants who reported extreme events, lower extraversion and/or conscientiousness at baseline as well as longitudinal increases in neuroticism predicted lower mental health at follow-up. PMID:19230009

Convection flow structure in the central polar cap

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bristow, W. A.

2017-12-01

A previous study of spatially averaged flow velocity in the central polar cap [Bristow et al., 2015] observed under steady IMF conditions found that it was extremely rare for the average to exceed 850 m/s (less than 0.2 % of the time). Anecdotally, however it is not uncommon to observe line-of-sight velocities in excess of 100 m/s in the McMurdo radar field of view directly over the magnetic pole. This discrepancy motivated this study, which examines the conditions under which high-velocity flows are observed at latitudes greater than 80° magnetic latitude. It was found that highly structured flows are common in the central polar cap, which leads to the flow within regions to have significant deviation from the average. In addition, the high-speed flow regions are usually directed away from the earth-sun line. No specific set of driving conditions was identified to be associated with high-speed flows. The study did conclude that 1)Polar cap velocities are generally highly structured. 2)Flow patterns typically illustrate narrow channels, vortical flow regions, and propagating features. 3) Persistent waves are a regular occurrence. 3)Features are observed to propagate from day side to night side, and from night side to day side.. 4)Convection often exhibits significant difference between the two hemispheres. And 5)About 10% of the time the velocity somewhere in the cap exceeds 1 Km/s The presentation will conclude with a discussion of the physical reasons for the flow structure. Bristow, W. A., E. Amata, J. Spaleta, and M. F. Marcucci (2015), Observations of the relationship between ionospheric central polar cap and dayside throat convection velocities, and solar wind/IMF driving, J. Geophys. Res. Space Physics, 120, doi:10.1002/2015JA021199.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ghosh, Subimal; Das, Debasish; Kao, Shih-Chieh

Recent studies disagree on how rainfall extremes over India have changed in space and time over the past half century, as well as on whether the changes observed are due to global warming or regional urbanization. Although a uniform and consistent decrease in moderate rainfall has been reported, a lack of agreement about trends in heavy rainfall may be due in part to differences in the characterization and spatial averaging of extremes. Here we use extreme value theory to examine trends in Indian rainfall over the past half century in the context of long-term, low-frequency variability.We show that when generalizedmore » extreme value theory is applied to annual maximum rainfall over India, no statistically significant spatially uniform trends are observed, in agreement with previous studies using different approaches. Furthermore, our space time regression analysis of the return levels points to increasing spatial variability of rainfall extremes over India. Our findings highlight the need for systematic examination of global versus regional drivers of trends in Indian rainfall extremes, and may help to inform flood hazard preparedness and water resource management in the region.« less

Ab initio simulation of particle momentum distributions in high-pressure water

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ceriotti, M.

2014-12-01

Applying pressure to water reduces the average oxygen-oxygen distance, and facilitates the delocalisation of protons along the hydrogen bond. This pressure-induced delocalisation is further enhanced by the quantum nature of hydrogen nuclei, which is very significant even well above room temperature. Here we will evaluate the quantum kinetic energy and the particle momentum distribution of hydrogen and oxygen nuclei in water at extreme pressure, using ab initio path integral molecular dynamics. We will show that (transient) dissociation of water molecules induce measurable changes in the kinetic energy hydrogen atoms, although current deep inelastic scattering experiments are probably unable to capture the heterogeneity of the sample.

Tapered-fiber-based refractive index sensor at an air/solution interface.

PubMed

Lu, Ping; Harris, Jeremie; Wang, Xiaozhen; Lin, Ganbin; Chen, Liang; Bao, Xiaoyi

2012-10-20

An approach to achieve refractive index sensing at an air and aqueous glycerol solution interface is proposed using a tapered-fiber-based microfiber Mach-Zehnder interferometer (MFMZI). Compared to a surrounding uniform medium of air or solutions, the spectral interference visibility of the MFMZI at the air/solution interface is significantly reduced due to a weak coupling between the fundamental cladding mode and high-order asymmetric cladding modes, which are extremely sensitive to the external refractive index. The MFMZI is experimentally demonstrated as an evanescent wave refractive index sensor to measure concentrations of glycerol solutions by monitoring average power attenuation of the tapered fiber.

Operative Treatment of Lymphedema Using Suction-Assisted Lipectomy.

PubMed

Greene, Arin K; Maclellan, Reid A

2016-09-01

Surgical management of lymphedema includes removal of affected tissues (excisional procedures), or operations that create new lymphatic connections (physiologic procedures). The purpose of this study was to determine the efficacy of one type of excisional procedure, suction-assisted lipectomy, for extremity lymphedema. Patients treated in our Lymphedema Program between 2007 and 2015 with liposuction that had postoperative follow-up were reviewed. The diagnosis of lymphedema was made by history/physical examination and confirmed with lymphoscintigraphy. Patient sex, age, type of lymphedema (primary or secondary), location of disease, infection history, volume of lipoaspirate, and reduction of extremity volume were recorded. Fifteen patients were included, mean age was 45 years (range, 17-71). Six patients had secondary upper extremity lymphedema, and 9 patients had lower limb disease. Eight patients had a history of repeated cellulitis involving the lymphedematous extremity. Mean lipoaspirate volume was 1612 mL (range, 1200-2800) for the upper extremity and 2902 mL (range, 2000-4800) for the lower limb. Postoperative follow-up averaged 3.1 years. The mean reduction in excess extremity volume was 73% (range, 48% to 94%), and patients reported improvement in their quality of life. Suction-assisted lipectomy is an effective technique to reduce extremity volume for patients with lymphedema.

Aggression after traumatic brain injury: analysing socially desirable responses and the nature of aggressive traits.

PubMed

Dyer, Kevin F W; Bell, Rob; McCann, John; Rauch, Robert

2006-10-01

To compare patients with traumatic brain injury (TBI) with controls on sub-types of aggression and explore the role of social desirability. Quasi-experimental, matched-participants design. Sixty-nine participants were included in the study. The sample comprised a TBI group (n = 24), a spinal cord injury (SCI) group (n = 21) and an uninjured (UI) group of matched healthy volunteers (n = 24). Participants were given self-report measures of aggression, social desirability and impulsivity. Sixty-one independent 'other-raters' were nominated, who rated participant pre-morbid and post-morbid aggression. Using standardized norms, 25-39% of participants with TBI were classified as high average-very high on anger and 35-38% as high average-very high on verbal aggression. Other-raters rated participants with TBI as significantly higher on verbal aggression than SCI and UI participants. There were no differences between the groups on physical aggression. The TBI group also had higher levels of impulsivity than SCI and UI groups. Social desirability was a highly significant predictor of self-reported aggression for the entire sample. Impulsive verbal aggression and anger are the principal aggressive traits after brain injury. Physical aggression may present in extreme cases after TBI, but appears less prominent overall in this population. Social desirability, previously overlooked in research examining TBI aggression, emerged as an influential variable that should be considered in future TBI research.

Comprehensive assessment of dam impacts on flow regimes with consideration of interannual variations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Yongyong; Shao, Quanxi; Zhao, Tongtiegang

2017-09-01

Assessing the impact of human intervention on flow regimes is important in policy making and resource management. Previous impact assessments of dam regulation on flow regimes have focused on long-term average patterns, but interannual variations, which are important characteristics to be considered, have been ignored. In this study, the entire signatures of hydrograph variations of Miyun Reservoir in northern China were described by forty flow regime metrics that incorporate magnitude, variability and frequency, duration, timing, and rate of change for flow events based on a long-term synchronous observation series of inflow and outflow. Principal component analysis and cluster analysis were used to reduce the multidimensionality of the metrics and time and to determine impact patterns and their interannual shifts. Statistically significant driving factors of impact pattern variations were identified. We found that dam regulation resulted in four main impact classes on the flow regimes and that the regulated capacity was interannually attenuated from 1973 to 2010. The impact patterns alternated between the highly regulated class with extremely decreasing flow magnitude, slight variability, and extreme intermittency and the slightly regulated class with extremely increasing flow magnitude, slight variability, and extreme intermittency from 1973 to 1987 and then stabilized in the latter class from 1988 to 2001. After 2001, the pattern gradually changed from the moderately regulated class with moderately decreasing flow magnitude, extreme variability, and extreme intermittency to the slightly regulated class with slightly decreasing flow magnitude, slight variability, and no intermittency. Decreasing precipitation and increasing drought were the primary drivers for the interannual variations of the impact patterns, and inflow variability was the most significant factor affecting the patterns, followed by flow event frequency and duration, magnitude, and timing. This study shows that the use of interannual characteristics can help to gain more insight into the impact of dam regulation on flow regimes and will provide important information to scientifically guide the multi-purpose regulation of dams.

A new hydrological model for estimating extreme floods in the Alps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Receanu, R. G.; Hertig, J.-A.; Fallot, J.-M.

2012-04-01

Protection against flooding is very important for a country like Switzerland with a varied topography and many rivers and lakes. Because of the potential danger caused by extreme precipitation, structural and functional safety of large dams must be guaranteed to withstand the passage of an extreme flood. We introduce a new distributed hydrological model to calculate the PMF from a PMP which is spatially and temporally distributed using clouds. This model has permitted the estimation of extreme floods based on the distributed PMP and the taking into account of the specifics of alpine catchments, in particular the small size of the basins, the complex topography, the large lakes, snowmelt and glaciers. This is an important evolution compared to other models described in the literature, as they mainly use a uniform distribution of extreme precipitation all over the watershed. This paper presents the results of calculation with the developed rainfall-runoff model, taking into account measured rainfall and comparing results to observed flood events. This model includes three parts: surface runoff, underground flow and melting snow. Two Swiss watersheds are studied, for which rainfall data and flow rates are available for a considerably long period, including several episodes of heavy rainfall with high flow events. From these events, several simulations are performed to estimate the input model parameters such as soil roughness and average width of rivers in case of surface runoff. Following the same procedure, the parameters used in the underground flow simulation are also estimated indirectly, since direct underground flow and exfiltration measurements are difficult to obtain. A sensitivity analysis of the parameters is performed at the first step to define more precisely the boundary and initial conditions. The results for the two alpine basins, validated with the Nash equation, show a good correlation between the simulated and observed flows. This good correlation shows that the model is valid and gives us the confidence that the results can be extrapolated to phenomena of extreme rainfall of PMP type.

[Use of Ultrasound in the Follow-up of Professional Athletes Receiving Conservative Treatment of Patellar Tendon Enthesiopathy].

PubMed

Guo, Li-juan; Cui, Li-gang; Li, Yu-mei; Liao, Li-ping; Song, Lin

2015-10-01

To investigate the role of high-frequency ultrasound (HFUS) in evaluating in the effectiveness of conservative treatment for professional athletes with patellar tendon enthesiopathy. According to different treatment intensities, 24 professional athletes with patellar tendon enthesiopathy were randomly divided into painless group, slightly-painful group and extremely-painful group. Then changes of the HFUS findings [including ranges of two-dimensional diseases and blood conditions by Color Doppler Flow Imaging (CDFI)] of patellar tendon before and after the treatment were recorded. The results were also compared with conventional clinical treatment evaluations. After two courses of treatment,the percentage of athletes whose pain was resolved or disappeared was 37.5% in painless group, 87.5% in slightly-painful group, and 62.5% in extremely-painful group. The pain score was 4.50 ± 2.07, 4.88 ± 1.13, and 6.13 ± 1.55 in painless group,slightly-painful group,and extremely-painful group, respectively,before treatment and 4.88 ± 2.17, 3.00 ± 1.77,and 5.13 ± 2.36 after treatment. The average pain score remarkably decreased in the slightly-painful group and extremely-painful group,and such difference was statistically significant in the slightly-pain group (P<0.05). The effective rate (defined as thinner patellar,decreased hypoecho area and fewer blood distribution in the lesion) was 38%, 50%, and 62% in the painless group, slightly-painful group,and extremely-painful group, and the rates in the slightly-painful group and extremely-painful group were significantly higher than that in painless group (both P<0.05). HFUS can display the ultrasonographic changes of patellar tendon enthesiopathy after conservative treatments in an objective and quantitative manner. Compared with conventional clinical evaluations, it can more accurately reflect the disease recovery status.

Exploring the use of random regression models with legendre polynomials to analyze measures of volume of ejaculate in Holstein bulls.

PubMed

Carabaño, M J; Díaz, C; Ugarte, C; Serrano, M

2007-02-01

Artificial insemination centers routinely collect records of quantity and quality of semen of bulls throughout the animals' productive period. The goal of this paper was to explore the use of random regression models with orthogonal polynomials to analyze repeated measures of semen production of Spanish Holstein bulls. A total of 8,773 records of volume of first ejaculate (VFE) collected between 12 and 30 mo of age from 213 Spanish Holstein bulls was analyzed under alternative random regression models. Legendre polynomial functions of increasing order (0 to 6) were fitted to the average trajectory, additive genetic and permanent environmental effects. Age at collection and days in production were used as time variables. Heterogeneous and homogeneous residual variances were alternatively assumed. Analyses were carried out within a Bayesian framework. The logarithm of the marginal density and the cross-validation predictive ability of the data were used as model comparison criteria. Based on both criteria, age at collection as a time variable and heterogeneous residuals models are recommended to analyze changes of VFE over time. Both criteria indicated that fitting random curves for genetic and permanent environmental components as well as for the average trajector improved the quality of models. Furthermore, models with a higher order polynomial for the permanent environmental (5 to 6) than for the genetic components (4 to 5) and the average trajectory (2 to 3) tended to perform best. High-order polynomials were needed to accommodate the highly oscillating nature of the phenotypic values. Heritability and repeatability estimates, disregarding the extremes of the studied period, ranged from 0.15 to 0.35 and from 0.20 to 0.50, respectively, indicating that selection for VFE may be effective at any stage. Small differences among models were observed. Apart from the extremes, estimated correlations between ages decreased steadily from 0.9 and 0.4 for measures 1 mo apart to 0.4 and 0.2 for most distant measures for additive genetic and phenotypic components, respectively. Further investigation to account for environmental factors that may be responsible for the oscillating observations of VFE is needed.

Modeling the recovery and degradation of mangroves at the global scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lagomasino, D.; Fatoyinbo, T.; Lee, S. K.; Feliciano, E. A.; Trettin, C.

2017-12-01

Forest growth and reforestation rates are crucial information for sustainable forest management practices and decision-making for restoration projects. There has been a recent increase in mangrove blue carbon restoration projects because of their extremely high carbon density, globally can reach over 1000 Mg ha-1 of carbon. If ecosystem projects do plan to facilitate mangrove restoration or deter land cover changes as a climate change mitigation strategy or in other carbon inventory strategies, unbiased field inventories need to become the norm. It is known that mangrove carbon can be extremely high in certain geographic settings, but that is not the case for many other regions. Remotely sensed canopy height has recently been incorporated into mangrove field inventories which provides an unbiased, readily accessible, and spatially-explicit model that was used to stratify the inventory design into discrete height classes. Combining the forest canopy height distribution captured from space and the field inventory data, biomass and carbon density were determined for each height class. Here, we present mangrove vertical growth rates and global carbon stock changes modeled through the combination of remotely sensed land cover change and canopy height class models using Landsat-derived vegetation index anomalies and synthetic aperture radar interferometry, respectively. Average growth rates ( 1-1.5m yr-1) were determined for four mangrove forests in the Zambezi, Rufiji, Ganges, and Mekong Deltas. An average global net productivity (9-10 Mg C ha-1 yr-1) was then derived using the four sites which represent young, fast-growing mangrove forests. Global mangrove carbon change was calculated using the average productivity estimates and land cover change from 2000 to 2015. Losses were categorized based on canopy height derived biomass classes in 2000 using Shuttle Radar Topography Mission data, while gained carbon stocks were assessed by using the study-derived mean productivity estimates. The vertical growth rates, forest structure, and biomass changes presented here will be useful in the implementation of forest management plans and refining primary production estimates, carbon sequestration potential, and identifying critical areas that are capable of being measured at regular intervals from space.

Oral supplementation with 25(OH)D3 versus vitamin D3: effects on 25(OH)D levels, lower extremity function, blood pressure, and markers of innate immunity

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

To test the effect of 25(OH)D3 (HyD) compared to vitamin D3 on serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D levels (25(OH)D), lower extremity function, blood pressure, and markers of innate immunity. Twenty healthy postmenopausal women with an average 25(OH)D level of 13.23.9 ng/mL (meanSD) and a mean age of 61.57.2 y...

Mid-Century Warming in the Los Angeles Region and its Uncertainty using Dynamical and Statistical Downscaling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, F.; Hall, A. D.; Walton, D.; Capps, S. B.; Qu, X.; Huang, H. J.; Berg, N.; Jousse, A.; Schwartz, M.; Nakamura, M.; Cerezo-Mota, R.

2012-12-01

Using a combination of dynamical and statistical downscaling techniques, we projected mid-21st century warming in the Los Angeles region at 2-km resolution. To account for uncertainty associated with the trajectory of future greenhouse gas emissions, we examined projections for both "business-as-usual" (RCP8.5) and "mitigation" (RCP2.6) emissions scenarios from the Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). To account for the considerable uncertainty associated with choice of global climate model, we downscaled results for all available global climate models in CMIP5. For the business-as-usual scenario, we find that by the mid-21st century, the most likely warming is roughly 2.6°C averaged over the region's land areas, with a 95% confidence that the warming lies between 0.9 and 4.2°C. The high resolution of the projections reveals a pronounced spatial pattern in the warming: High elevations and inland areas separated from the coast by at least one mountain complex warm 20 to 50% more than the areas near the coast or within the Los Angeles basin. This warming pattern is especially apparent in summertime. The summertime warming contrast between the inland and coastal zones has a large effect on the most likely expected number of extremely hot days per year. Coastal locations and areas within the Los Angeles basin see roughly two to three times the number of extremely hot days, while high elevations and inland areas typically experience approximately three to five times the number of extremely hot days. Under the mitigation emissions scenario, the most likely warming and increase in heat extremes are somewhat smaller. However, the majority of the warming seen in the business-as-usual scenario still occurs at all locations in the most likely case under the mitigation scenario, and heat extremes still increase significantly. This warming study is the first part of a series studies of our project. More climate change impacts on the Santa Ana wind, rainfall, snowfall and snowmelt, cloud and surface hydrology are forthcoming and could be found in www.atmos.ucla.edu/csrl.he ensemble-mean, annual-mean surface air temperature change and its uncertainty from the available CMIP5 GCMs under the RCP8.5 (left) and RCP2.6 (right) emissions scenarios, unit: °C.

Perfluoroalkyl acids in surface waters and tapwater in the Qiantang River watershed-Influences from paper, textile, and leather industries.

PubMed

Lu, Guo-Hui; Gai, Nan; Zhang, Peng; Piao, Hai-Tao; Chen, Shu; Wang, Xiao-Chun; Jiao, Xing-Chun; Yin, Xiao-Cai; Tan, Ke-Yan; Yang, Yong-Liang

2017-10-01

Perfluoroalkyl acids (PFAAs) are widely used as multi-purpose surfactants or water/oil repellents. In order to understand the contamination level and compositional profiles of PFAAs in aqueous environment in textile, leather, and paper making industrial areas, surface waters and tap waters were collected along the watershed of the Qiantang River where China's largest textile, leather, and paper making industrial bases are located. For comparison, surface water and tapwater samples were also collected in Hangzhou and its adjacent areas. 17 PFAAs were analyzed by solid phase extraction-high performance liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry. The results show that the total concentrations of PFAAs (ΣPFAAs) in the Qiantang River waters ranged from 106.1 to 322.9 ng/L, averaging 164.2 ng/L. The contamination levels have been found to be extremely high, comparable to the levels of the most serious PFAA contamination in surface waters of China. The PFAA composition profiles were characterized by the dominant PFOA (average 58.1% of the total PFAAs), and PFHxA (average 18.8%). The ΣPFAAs in tap water ranged from 9.5 to 174.8 ng/L, showing PFAA compositional pattern similar to the surface waters. Good correlations between PFAA composition profiles in tap waters and the surface waters were observed. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Bright and Dark Sides of High-redshift Starburst Galaxies from Herschel and Subaru Observations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Puglisi, A.; Rodighiero, G.; Rodríguez-Muñoz, L.

2017-04-01

We present rest-frame optical spectra from the FMOS-COSMOS survey of 12 z ∼ 1.6 Herschel starburst galaxies, with star formation rate (SFR) elevated by ×8, on average, above the star-forming main sequence (MS). Comparing the H α to IR luminosity ratio and the Balmer decrement, we find that the optically thin regions of the sources contain on average only ∼10% of the total SFR, whereas ∼90% come from an extremely obscured component that is revealed only by far-IR observations and is optically thick even in H α . We measure the [N ii]{sub 6583}/H α ratio, suggesting that the lessmore » obscured regions have a metal content similar to that of the MS population at the same stellar masses and redshifts. However, our objects appear to be metal-rich outliers from the metallicity–SFR anticorrelation observed at fixed stellar mass for the MS population. The [S ii]{sub 6732}/[S ii]{sub 6717} ratio from the average spectrum indicates an electron density n {sub e} ∼ 1100 cm{sup −3} , larger than what was estimated for MS galaxies but only at the 1.5 σ level. Our results provide supporting evidence that high- z MS outliers are analogous of local ULIRGs and are consistent with a major-merger origin for the starburst event.« less

Hourly storm characteristics along the U.S. West Coast: Role of atmospheric rivers in extreme precipitation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lamjiri, Maryam A.; Dettinger, Michael; Ralph, F. Martin; Guan, B.

2017-01-01

Gridded hourly precipitation observations over the conterminous U.S., from 1948 to 2002, are analyzed to determine climatological characteristics of storm precipitation totals. Despite generally lower hourly intensities, precipitation totals along the U.S. West Coast (USWC) are comparable to those in southeast U.S. (SEUS). Storm durations, more so than hourly intensities, strongly modulate precipitation-total variability over the USWC, where the correlation coefficients between storm durations and storm totals range from 0.7 to 0.9. Atmospheric rivers (ARs) contribute 30–50% of annual precipitation on the USWC and make such large contributions to extreme storms that 60–100% of the most extreme storms, i.e., storms with precipitation-total return intervals longer than 2 years, are associated with ARs. These extreme storm totals are more strongly tied to storm durations than to storm hourly or average intensities, emphasizing the importance of AR persistence to extreme storms on the USWC.

The effect of extremity strength training on fibromyalgia symptoms and disease impact in an existing multidisciplinary treatment program.

PubMed

Kas, Tamara; Colby, Megan; Case, Maureen; Vaughn, Dan

2016-10-01

The purpose of this study was to examine the effect of upper and lower body extremity strengthening exercise in patients with Fibromyalgia (FM) within an existing multidisciplinary treatment program. Patients between the ages of 18-65 with the medical diagnosis of FM. Comparative study design. The control and experimental group received the same multidisciplinary treatment except that the experimental group performed upper and lower extremity strengthening exercises. The Fibromyalgia Impact Questionnaire (FIQ) was administered at evaluation and discharge from the program in order to measure change in quality of life (QOL). Statistically significant changes in FIQ scores were found for both groups. The addition of extremity strengthening in the experimental group produced an average 4 points greater reduction in FIQ score, however, these results are not considered statistically significant. This study appears to validate the success of a multidisciplinary approach in treating patients with FM, with the possibility for further benefit with the addition of extremity strengthening. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Precipitation dynamics and chemical properties in tropical mountain forests of Ecuador

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rollenbeck, R.; Fabian, P.; Bendix, J.

2006-01-01

Terrestrial ecosystems in southern Ecuador are strongly affected by interannual climate variations. This holds especially true for the episodic El Niño events, which cause above-normal precipitation in the coastal region of Ecuador and below normal values in the eastern provinces of the Amazon basin (Bendix, 1999). For the transitional zone between these two extremes, which consists mainly of the andean slopes and larger interandean basins the effect on interannual climate variability is not well known. The PREDICT project monitors regional climate in the provinces of Loja and Zamora-Chinchipe (4° S/79° W), where a strong gradients of precipitation are observed. Between the eastern slopes of the Cordillera Real and the dry valley of Catamayo, which are only 70km apart, rain totals drop from over 4000 mm to only 300 mm per year. These two extremes represent the both sides of the Andean mountain chain and are completely covered by the study area, which is 120 km in diameter. Methods used are a combination of point measurements (climate stations) and remote sensing devices (weather radar, satellite imagery), which enable a high-resolution real-time observation of rain distribution and underlying processes. By this, ideal conditions are given to monitor a potential shift of the transition zone between below-average and above-average rainfall situated in this region, if another ENSO-anomaly occurs. Furthermore variability of atmospheric nutrient inputs is analysed within the scope of the project, to assess further impacts on this ecosystem.

Attenuation of Typical Sex Differences in 800 Adults with Autism vs. 3,900 Controls

PubMed Central

Baron-Cohen, Simon; Cassidy, Sarah; Auyeung, Bonnie; Allison, Carrie; Achoukhi, Maryam; Robertson, Sarah; Pohl, Alexa; Lai, Meng-Chuan

2014-01-01

Sex differences have been reported in autistic traits and systemizing (male advantage), and empathizing (female advantage) among typically developing individuals. In individuals with autism, these cognitive-behavioural profiles correspond to predictions from the “extreme male brain” (EMB) theory of autism (extreme scores on autistic traits and systemizing, below average on empathizing). Sex differences within autism, however, have been under-investigated. Here we show in 811 adults (454 females) with autism and 3,906 age-matched typical control adults (2,562 females) who completed the Empathy Quotient (EQ), the Systemizing Quotient-Revised (SQ-R), and the Autism Spectrum Quotient (AQ), that typical females on average scored higher on the EQ, typical males scored higher on the SQ-R and AQ, and both males and females with autism showed a shift toward the extreme of the “male profile” on these measures and in the distribution of “brain types” (the discrepancy between standardized EQ and SQ-R scores). Further, normative sex differences are attenuated but not abolished in adults with autism. The findings provide strong support for the EMB theory of autism, and highlight differences between males and females with autism. PMID:25029203

Correlation and prediction of dynamic human isolated joint strength from lean body mass

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pandya, Abhilash K.; Hasson, Scott M.; Aldridge, Ann M.; Maida, James C.; Woolford, Barbara J.

1992-01-01

A relationship between a person's lean body mass and the amount of maximum torque that can be produced with each isolated joint of the upper extremity was investigated. The maximum dynamic isolated joint torque (upper extremity) on 14 subjects was collected using a dynamometer multi-joint testing unit. These data were reduced to a table of coefficients of second degree polynomials, computed using a least squares regression method. All the coefficients were then organized into look-up tables, a compact and convenient storage/retrieval mechanism for the data set. Data from each joint, direction and velocity, were normalized with respect to that joint's average and merged into files (one for each curve for a particular joint). Regression was performed on each one of these files to derive a table of normalized population curve coefficients for each joint axis, direction, and velocity. In addition, a regression table which included all upper extremity joints was built which related average torque to lean body mass for an individual. These two tables are the basis of the regression model which allows the prediction of dynamic isolated joint torques from an individual's lean body mass.

Threats from Climate Change to Terrestrial Vertebrate Hotspots in Europe

PubMed Central

Maiorano, Luigi; Amori, Giovanni; Capula, Massimo; Falcucci, Alessandra; Masi, Monica; Montemaggiori, Alessandro; Pottier, Julien; Psomas, Achilleas; Rondinini, Carlo; Russo, Danilo; Zimmermann, Niklaus E.

2013-01-01

We identified hotspots of terrestrial vertebrate species diversity in Europe and adjacent islands. Moreover, we assessed the extent to which by the end of the 21st century such hotspots will be exposed to average monthly temperature and precipitation patterns which can be regarded as extreme if compared to the climate experienced during 1950-2000. In particular, we considered the entire European sub-continent plus Turkey and a total of 1149 species of terrestrial vertebrates. For each species, we developed species-specific expert-based distribution models (validated against field data) which we used to calculate species richness maps for mammals, breeding birds, amphibians, and reptiles. Considering four global circulation model outputs and three emission scenarios, we generated an index of risk of exposure to extreme climates, and we used a bivariate local Moran’s I to identify the areas with a significant association between hotspots of diversity and high risk of exposure to extreme climates. Our results outline that the Mediterranean basin represents both an important hotspot for biodiversity and especially for threatened species for all taxa. In particular, the Iberian and Italian peninsulas host particularly high species richness as measured over all groups, while the eastern Mediterranean basin is particularly rich in amphibians and reptiles; the islands (both Macaronesian and Mediterranean) host the highest richness of threatened species for all taxa occurs. Our results suggest that the main hotspots of biodiversity for terrestrial vertebrates may be extensively influenced by the climate change projected to occur over the coming decades, especially in the Mediterranean bioregion, posing serious concerns for biodiversity conservation. PMID:24066162

Threats from climate change to terrestrial vertebrate hotspots in Europe.

PubMed

Maiorano, Luigi; Amori, Giovanni; Capula, Massimo; Falcucci, Alessandra; Masi, Monica; Montemaggiori, Alessandro; Pottier, Julien; Psomas, Achilleas; Rondinini, Carlo; Russo, Danilo; Zimmermann, Niklaus E; Boitani, Luigi; Guisan, Antoine

2013-01-01

We identified hotspots of terrestrial vertebrate species diversity in Europe and adjacent islands. Moreover, we assessed the extent to which by the end of the 21(st) century such hotspots will be exposed to average monthly temperature and precipitation patterns which can be regarded as extreme if compared to the climate experienced during 1950-2000. In particular, we considered the entire European sub-continent plus Turkey and a total of 1149 species of terrestrial vertebrates. For each species, we developed species-specific expert-based distribution models (validated against field data) which we used to calculate species richness maps for mammals, breeding birds, amphibians, and reptiles. Considering four global circulation model outputs and three emission scenarios, we generated an index of risk of exposure to extreme climates, and we used a bivariate local Moran's I to identify the areas with a significant association between hotspots of diversity and high risk of exposure to extreme climates. Our results outline that the Mediterranean basin represents both an important hotspot for biodiversity and especially for threatened species for all taxa. In particular, the Iberian and Italian peninsulas host particularly high species richness as measured over all groups, while the eastern Mediterranean basin is particularly rich in amphibians and reptiles; the islands (both Macaronesian and Mediterranean) host the highest richness of threatened species for all taxa occurs. Our results suggest that the main hotspots of biodiversity for terrestrial vertebrates may be extensively influenced by the climate change projected to occur over the coming decades, especially in the Mediterranean bioregion, posing serious concerns for biodiversity conservation.

Satellite skill in detecting extreme episodes in near-surface air quality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruiz, D. J.; Prather, M. J.

2017-12-01

Ozone (O3) contributes to ambient air pollution, adversely affecting public health, agriculture, and ecosystems. Reliable, long-term, densely distributed surface networks are required to establish the scale, intensity and repeatability of major pollution events (designated here in a climatological sense as air quality extremes, AQX as defined in Schnell's work). Regrettably, such networks are only available for North America (NA) and Europe (EU), which does not include many populated regions where the deaths associated with air pollution exposure are alarmingly high. Directly measuring surface pollutants from space without lidar is extremely difficult. Mapping of daily pollution events requires cross-track nadir scanners and these have limited sensitivity to surface O3 levels. This work examines several years of coincident surface and OMI satellite measurements over NA-EU, in combination with a chemistry-transport model (CTM) hindcast of that period to understand how the large-scale AQX episodes may extend into the free troposphere and thus be more amenable to satellite mapping. We show how extreme NA-EU episodes are measured from OMI and then look for such patterns over other polluted regions of the globe. We gather individual high-quality O3 surface site measurements from these other regions, to check on our satellite detection. Our approach with global satellite detection would avoid issues associated with regional variations in seasonality, chemical regime, data product biases; and it does not require defining a separate absolute threshold for each data product (surface site and satellite). This also enables coherent linking of the extreme events into large-scale pollution episodes whose magnitude evolves over 100's of km for several days. Tools used here include the UC Irvine CTM, which shows that much of the O3 surface variability is lost at heights above 2 km, but AQX local events are readily seen in a 0-3 km column average. The OMI data are taken from X. Liu's dataset using an improved algorithm for detection of tropospheric O3. Surface site observations outside NA and EU are taken from research stations where possible.

A nested observation and model approach to non linear groundwater surface water interactions.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van der Velde, Y.; Rozemeijer, J. C.; de Rooij, G. H.

2009-04-01

Surface water quality measurements in The Netherlands are scattered in time and space. Therefore, water quality status and its variations and trends are difficult to determine. In order to reach the water quality goals according to the European Water Framework Directive, we need to improve our understanding of the dynamics of surface water quality and the processes that affect it. In heavily drained lowland catchment groundwater influences the discharge towards the surface water network in many complex ways. Especially a strong seasonal contracting and expanding system of discharging ditches and streams affects discharge and solute transport. At a tube drained field site the tube drain flux and the combined flux of all other flow routes toward a stretch of 45 m of surface water have been measured for a year. Also the groundwater levels at various locations in the field and the discharge at two nested catchment scales have been monitored. The unique reaction of individual flow routes on rainfall events at the field site allowed us to separate the discharge at a 4 ha catchment and at a 6 km2 into flow route contributions. The results of this nested experimental setup combined with the results of a distributed hydrological model has lead to the formulation of a process model approach that focuses on the spatial variability of discharge generation driven by temporal and spatial variations in groundwater levels. The main idea of this approach is that discharge is not generated by catchment average storages or groundwater heads, but is mainly generated by points scale extremes i.e. extreme low permeability, extreme high groundwater heads or extreme low surface elevations, all leading to catchment discharge. We focused on describing the spatial extremes in point scale storages and this led to a simple and measurable expression that governs the non-linear groundwater surface water interaction. We will present the analysis of the field site data to demonstrate the potential of nested-scale, high frequency observations. The distributed hydrological model results will be used to show transient catchment scale relations between groundwater levels and discharges. These analyses lead to a simple expression that can describe catchment scale groundwater surface water interactions.

South Belridge fields, Borderland basin, U. S. , San Joaquin Valley

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Miller, D.D.; McPherson, J.G.

1991-03-01

South Belridge is a giant field in the west San Joaquin Valley, Kern County. Cumulative field production is approximately 700 MMBO and 220 BCFG, with remaining recoverable reserves of approximately 500 MMBO. The daily production is nearly 180 MBO from over 6100 active wells. The focus of current field development and production is the shallow Tulare reservoir. Additional probable diatomite reserves have been conservatively estimated at 550 MMBO and 550 BCFG. South Belridge field has two principal reservoir horizons; the Mio-Pliocene Belridge diatomite of the upper Monterey Formation, and the overlying Plio-Pleistocene Tulare Formation. The field lies on the crestmore » of a large southeast-plunging anticline, sub-parallel to the nearby San Andreas fault system. The reservoir trap in both the Tulare and diatomite reservoir horizons is a combination of structure, stratigraphic factors, and tar seals; the presumed source for the oil is the deeper Monterey Formation. The diatomite reservoir produces light oil (20-32{degree} API gravity) form deep-marine diatomite and diatomaceous shales with extremely high porosity (average 60%) and low permeability (average 1 md). In contrast, the shallow ({lt}1000 ft (305 m) deep) overlying Tulare reservoir produces heavy oil (13-14{degree} API gravity) from unconsolidated, arkosic, fluviodeltaic sands of high porosity (average 35%) and permeability (average 3000 md). The depositional model is that of a generally prograding fluviodeltaic system sourced in the nearby basin-margin highlands. More than 6000 closely spaced, shallow wells are the key to steamflood production from hundreds of layered and laterally discontinuous reservoir sands which create laterally and vertically discontinuous reservoir flow units.« less

Have precipitation extremes and annual totals been increasing in the world's dry regions over the last 60 years?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sippel, Sebastian; Zscheischler, Jakob; Heimann, Martin; Lange, Holger; Mahecha, Miguel D.; van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan; Otto, Friederike E. L.; Reichstein, Markus

2017-01-01

Daily precipitation extremes and annual totals have increased in large parts of the global land area over the past decades. These observations are consistent with theoretical considerations of a warming climate. However, until recently these trends have not been shown to consistently affect dry regions over land. A recent study, published by Donat et al. (2016), now identified significant increases in annual-maximum daily extreme precipitation (Rx1d) and annual precipitation totals (PRCPTOT) in dry regions. Here, we revisit the applied methods and explore the sensitivity of changes in precipitation extremes and annual totals to alternative choices of defining a dry region (i.e. in terms of aridity as opposed to precipitation characteristics alone). We find that (a) statistical artifacts introduced by data pre-processing based on a time-invariant reference period lead to an overestimation of the reported trends by up to 40 %, and that (b) the reported trends of globally aggregated extremes and annual totals are highly sensitive to the definition of a dry region of the globe. For example, using the same observational dataset, accounting for the statistical artifacts, and based on different aridity-based dryness definitions, we find a reduction in the positive trend of Rx1d from the originally reported +1.6 % decade-1 to +0.2 to +0.9 % decade-1 (period changes for 1981-2010 averages relative to 1951-1980 are reduced to -1.32 to +0.97 % as opposed to +4.85 % in the original study). If we include additional but less homogenized data to cover larger regions, the global trend increases slightly (Rx1d: +0.4 to +1.1 % decade-1), and in this case we can indeed confirm (partly) significant increases in Rx1d. However, these globally aggregated estimates remain uncertain as considerable gaps in long-term observations in the Earth's arid and semi-arid regions remain. In summary, adequate data pre-processing and accounting for uncertainties regarding the definition of dryness are crucial to the quantification of spatially aggregated trends in precipitation extremes in the world's dry regions. In view of the high relevance of the question to many potentially affected stakeholders, we call for a well-reflected choice of specific data processing methods and the inclusion of alternative dryness definitions to guarantee that communicated results related to climate change be robust.

Differential behaviour of a Lesser Himalayan watershed in extreme rainfall regimes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chauhan, Pankaj; Singh, Nilendu; Chauniyal, Devi Datt; Ahluwalia, Rajeev S.; Singhal, Mohit

2017-03-01

Climatic extremes including precipitation are bound to intensify in the global warming environment. The present study intends to understand the response of the Tons sub-watershed in Lesser Himalaya, in 3 years with entirely different hydrological conditions (July 2008-June 2011) in terms of discharge, sediment flux and denudation rates. Within an uncertainty limit of ±20%, the mean interannual discharge (5.74 ± 1.44 m 3 s -1) (±SE), was found highly variable (CV: 151%; 0.8-38 m 3 s -1). In a normal rainfall year (2008-2009; ˜1550 mm), the discharge was 5.12 ± 1.75 m 3 s -1, whereas in a drought year (2009-2010), it reduced by 30% with the reduction in ˜23% rainfall (CV: 85%). In an excessive rainfall year (once-in-a-century event) (2010-2011; ˜3050 mm), discharge as well as total solid load was ˜200% higher. Monsoon months (July-September) accounted for more than 90% of the annual solid load transport. The ratio of dissolved to suspended solid (C/P ratio) was consistently low (<1) during monsoon months and higher (1-7) during the rest of the dry period. C/P ratio was inversely ( R 2=0.49), but significantly ( P <0.001) related to the rainfall. The average mechanical erosion rate in the three different rainfall years was 0.24, 0.19 and 1.03 mmyr -1, whereas the chemical erosion was estimated at 0.12, 0.11 and 0.46 mmyr -1, respectively. Thus, the average denudation rate of the Tons sub-watershed has been estimated at 0.33 mmyr -1 (excluding extreme rainfall year: 1.5 mmyr -1). Our results have implications to understand the hydrological behaviour of the Lesser Himalayan watersheds and will be valuable for the proposed and several upcoming small hydropower plants in the region in the context of regional ecology and natural resource management.

Radiative Characteristics of Aerosol During Extreme Fire Event over Siberia in Summer 2012

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zhuravleva, Tatiana B.; Kabanov, Dmitriy M.; Nasrtdinov, Ilmir M.; Russkova, Tatiana V.; Sakerin, Sergey M.; Smirnov, Alexander; Holben, Brent N.

2017-01-01

Microphysical and optical properties of aerosol were studied during a mega-fire event in summer 2012 over Siberia using ground-based measurements of spectral solarradiation at the AERONET site in Tomsk and satellite observations. The data were analyzed using multi-year (2003-2013) measurements of aerosol characteristics under back-ground conditions and for less intense fires, differing in burning biomass type, stage of fire, remoteness from observation site, etc. (ordinary smoke). In June-August 2012, the average aerosol optical depth (AOD, 500 nm) had been 0.95+/-0.86, about a factor of 6 larger than background values (0.16+/-0.08), and a factor of 2.5 larger than in ordinary smoke. The AOD values were extremely high on 24-28 July and reached 3-5. A comparison with satellite observations showed that ground-based measurements in the region of Tomsk not only reflect the local AOD features, but are also characteristic for the territory of Western Siberia as a whole. Single scattering albedo (SSA, 440 nm) in this period ranged from 0.91 to 0.99 with an average of approx. 0.96 in the entire wavelength range of 440-1020 nm. The increase in absorptance of aerosol particles (SSA(440 nm)=0.92) and decrease in SSA with wavelength observed in ordinary smoke agree with the data from multi-year observations in analogous situations in the boreal zone of USA and Canada. Volume aerosol size distribution in extreme and ordinary smoke had a bimodal character with significant prevalence of fine-mode particles, but in summer 2012 the mean median radius and the width of the fine-mode distribution somewhat increased. In contrast to data from multi-year observations, in summer 2012 an increase in the volume concentration and median radius of the coarse mode was observed with growing AOD.

Providing peak river flow statistics and forecasting in the Niger River basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andersson, Jafet C. M.; Ali, Abdou; Arheimer, Berit; Gustafsson, David; Minoungou, Bernard

2017-08-01

Flooding is a growing concern in West Africa. Improved quantification of discharge extremes and associated uncertainties is needed to improve infrastructure design, and operational forecasting is needed to provide timely warnings. In this study, we use discharge observations, a hydrological model (Niger-HYPE) and extreme value analysis to estimate peak river flow statistics (e.g. the discharge magnitude with a 100-year return period) across the Niger River basin. To test the model's capacity of predicting peak flows, we compared 30-year maximum discharge and peak flow statistics derived from the model vs. derived from nine observation stations. The results indicate that the model simulates peak discharge reasonably well (on average + 20%). However, the peak flow statistics have a large uncertainty range, which ought to be considered in infrastructure design. We then applied the methodology to derive basin-wide maps of peak flow statistics and their associated uncertainty. The results indicate that the method is applicable across the hydrologically active part of the river basin, and that the uncertainty varies substantially depending on location. Subsequently, we used the most recent bias-corrected climate projections to analyze potential changes in peak flow statistics in a changed climate. The results are generally ambiguous, with consistent changes only in very few areas. To test the forecasting capacity, we ran Niger-HYPE with a combination of meteorological data sets for the 2008 high-flow season and compared with observations. The results indicate reasonable forecasting capacity (on average 17% deviation), but additional years should also be evaluated. We finish by presenting a strategy and pilot project which will develop an operational flood monitoring and forecasting system based in-situ data, earth observations, modelling, and extreme statistics. In this way we aim to build capacity to ultimately improve resilience toward floods, protecting lives and infrastructure in the region.

A century of climate and ecosystem change in Western Montana: What do temperature trends portend?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pederson, G.T.; Graumlich, L.J.; Fagre, D.B.; Kipfer, T.; Muhlfeld, C.C.

2010-01-01

The physical science linking human-induced increases in greenhouse gasses to the warming of the global climate system is well established, but the implications of this warming for ecosystem processes and services at regional scales is still poorly understood. Thus, the objectives of this work were to: (1) describe rates of change in temperature averages and extremes for western Montana, a region containing sensitive resources and ecosystems, (2) investigate associations between Montana temperature change to hemispheric and global temperature change, (3) provide climate analysis tools for land and resource managers responsible for researching and maintaining renewable resources, habitat, and threatened/endangered species and (4) integrate our findings into a more general assessment of climate impacts on ecosystem processes and services over the past century. Over 100 years of daily and monthly temperature data collected in western Montana, USA are analyzed for long-term changes in seasonal averages and daily extremes. In particular, variability and trends in temperature above or below ecologically and socially meaningful thresholds within this region (e.g., -17.8??C (0??F), 0??C (32??F), and 32.2??C (90??F)) are assessed. The daily temperature time series reveal extremely cold days (??? -17.8??C) terminate on average 20 days earlier and decline in number, whereas extremely hot days (???32??C) show a three-fold increase in number and a 24-day increase in seasonal window during which they occur. Results show that regionally important thresholds have been exceeded, the most recent of which include the timing and number of the 0??C freeze/thaw temperatures during spring and fall. Finally, we close with a discussion on the implications for Montana's ecosystems. Special attention is given to critical processes that respond non-linearly as temperatures exceed critical thresholds, and have positive feedbacks that amplify the changes. ?? Springer Science + Business Media B.V. 2009.

Efficacy of Lower-Extremity Venous Thrombolysis in the Setting of Congenital Absence or Atresia of the Inferior Vena Cava

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ganguli, Suvranu, E-mail: sganguli@partners.org; Kalva, Sanjeeva; Oklu, Rahmi

Purpose: A rare but described risk factor for deep venous thrombosis (DVT), predominately in the young, is congenital agenesis or atresia of the inferior vena cava (IVC). The optimal management for DVT in this subset of patients is unknown. We evaluated the efficacy of pharmacomechanical catheter-directed thrombolysis (PCDT) followed by systemic anticoagulation in the treatment of acute lower-extremity DVT in the setting of congenital IVC agenesis or atresia. Materials and Methods: Between November of 2005 and May of 2010, six patients (three women [average age 21 years]) were referred to our department with acute lower-extremity DVT and subsequently found tomore » have IVC agenesis or atresia on magnetic resonance imaging. A standardized technique for PCDT (the Angiojet Rheolytic Thrombectomy System followed by the EKOS Microsonic Accelerated Thrombolysis System) was used for all subjects. Successful thrombolysis was followed by systemic heparinization with transition to Coumadin or low molecular-weight heparin and compression stockings. Subjects were followed-up at 1, 3, and then every 6 months after the procedure with clinical assessment and bilateral lower-extremity venous ultrasound. Results: All PCDT procedures were technically successful. No venous stenting or angioplasty was performed. The average thrombolysis time was 28.6 h (range 12-72). Two patients experienced heparin-induced thrombocytopenia, and one patient developed a self-limited knee hemarthrosis, No patients were lost to follow-up. The average length of follow-up was 25.8 {+-} 20.2 months (range 3.8-54.8). No incidence of recurrent DVT was identified. There were no manifestations of postthrombotic syndrome. Conclusions: PCDT followed by systemic anticoagulation and the use of compression stockings appears to be safe and effective in relatively long-term follow-up treatment of patients who present with acute DVT and IVC agenesis or atresia.« less

Spatiotemporal variability of rainfall extremes in monsoonal climates - examples from the South American Monsoon and the Indian Monsoon Systems (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bookhagen, B.; Boers, N.; Marwan, N.; Malik, N.; Kurths, J.

2013-12-01

Monsoonal rainfall is the crucial component for more than half of the world's population. Runoff associated with monsoon systems provide water resources for agriculture, hydropower, drinking-water generation, recreation, and social well-being and are thus a fundamental part of human society. However, monsoon systems are highly stochastic and show large variability on various timescales. Here, we use various rainfall datasets to characterize spatiotemporal rainfall patterns using traditional as well as new approaches emphasizing nonlinear spatial correlations from a complex networks perspective. Our analyses focus on the South American (SAMS) and Indian (ISM) Monsoon Systems on the basis of Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) using precipitation radar and passive-microwave products with horizontal spatial resolutions of ~5x5 km^2 (products 2A25, 2B31) and 25x25 km^2 (3B42) and interpolated rainfall-gauge data for the ISM (APHRODITE, 25x25 km^2). The eastern slopes of the Andes of South America and the southern front of the Himalaya are characterized by significant orographic barriers that intersect with the moisture-bearing, monsoonal wind systems. We demonstrate that topography exerts a first-order control on peak rainfall amounts on annual timescales in both mountain belts. Flooding in the downstream regions is dominantly caused by heavy rainfall storms that propagate deep into the mountain range and reach regions that are arid and without vegetation cover promoting rapid runoff. These storms exert a significantly different spatial distribution than average-rainfall conditions and assessing their recurrence intervals and prediction is key in understanding flooding for these regions. An analysis of extreme-value distributions of our high-spatial resolution data reveal that semi-arid areas are characterized by low-frequency/high-magnitude events (i.e., are characterized by a ';heavy tail' distribution), whereas regions with high mean annual rainfall have a less skewed distribution. In a second step, an analysis of the spatial characteristics of extreme rainfall synchronicity by means of complex networks reveals patterns of the propagation of extreme rainfall events. These patterns differ substantially from those obtained from the mean annual rainfall distribution. In addition, we have developed a scheme to predict rainfall extreme events in the eastern Central Andes based on event synchronization and spatial patterns of complex networks. The presented methods and result will allow to critically evaluate data and models in space and time.

Noise and light exposures for extremely low birth weight newborns during their stay in the neonatal intensive care unit.

PubMed

Lasky, Robert E; Williams, Amber L

2009-02-01

The objectives of this study were to characterize noise and light levels for extremely low birth weight newborns throughout their stay in the NICU, evaluate factors influencing noise and light levels, and determine whether exposures meet recommendations from the American Academy of Pediatrics. Sound and light were measured inside the beds of extremely low birth weight newborns (n = 22) from birth to discharge. Measurements were recorded for 20 consecutive hours weekly from birth until 36 weeks' postmenstrual age, biweekly until 40 weeks, and every 4 weeks thereafter. Clinical variables including bed type and method of respiratory support were recorded at each session. Age-related changes in respiratory support and bed type explained the weekly increase of 0.22 dB in sound level and 3.67 lux in light level. Old incubators were the noisiest bed types, and new incubators were the quietest. Light levels were significantly higher in open beds than in incubators. The variations in noise and light levels over time were greatest for open beds. Noise and light levels were much less affected by respiratory support in incubators compared with open beds. A typical extremely low birth weight neonate was exposed to noise levels averaging 56.44 dB(A) and light levels averaging 70.56 lux during their stay from 26 to 42 weeks' postmenstrual age in the NICU. Noise levels were rarely within American Academy of Pediatrics recommendations (5.51% of the time), whereas light levels almost always met recommendations (99.37% of the time). Bed type and respiratory support explained differences in noise and light levels that extremely low birth weight newborns experience during their hospital stay. Noise levels exceeded recommendations, although evidence supporting those recommendations is lacking. Well-designed intervention studies are needed to determine the effects of noise reduction on the development of extremely low birth weight newborns.

Bioclimatic changes and landslide recurrence in the mountainous region of Rio de Janeiro: are we ready to face the next landslide disaster?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luiza Coelho Netto, Ana; Facadio, Ana Carolina; Pereira, Roberta; Lima, Pedro Henrique

2017-04-01

Paleo-environmental studies point out an alternation of wet and dry periods during the Holocene in southeastern Brazil, marked by the expansion and retraction of the humid tropical rainforest in alternation with the campos de altitude vegetation ('high altitude grassland'); successive episodes of natural fire were recorded from 10,000 to 4,000 years BP in the mountainous region of SE-Brazil, reflecting warm-dry conditions. Present seasonal climatic variability is indicated by an increasing dry spell frequency throughout the XX and early XXI centuries together with an increasing rainfall concentration in the summer when extreme daily totals (above 100 mm) become progressively more frequent. Historical land use changes, at both regional and local scales, are mostly related to this climatic variability. Therefore extreme rainfall induced landslides have been responsible for severe disasters as recorded along the Atlantic slopes of Serra do Mar. The extreme one occurred in January 2011, affecting the municipalities of Nova Friburgo, Teresópolis and Petrópolis. Studies in Nova Friburgo shown the occurrence of 3.622 landslides scars within an area of 421 km2; this rainfall event reached the expected average monthly rainfall (300 mm) in less than 10 hours. The D'Antas creek basin (53 km2) was the most affected area by landslides; 86% of 326 scars where associated with shallow translational mechanisms among which 67% occurred within shallow concave up topographic hollows of 32° slope angle in average. Most of these landslide scars occurred in granite rocks and degraded vegetation due to historical land use changes (last 200 years) including secondary forest (64%) and grasslands (25%). The present-day association between extreme rainfall induced landslides and human induced vegetation changes seem to reflect similar geomorphic responses to natural Holocene bioclimatic changes; a common phenomenon between the two periods is fire (natural fire in the past time and man-induced fire nowadays). Despite all field evidences on the relevance of landslides on hillslope evolution in the mountainous domain, local communities at risk and governmental institutions are not yet ready to face the next extreme rain event. Since November 2014 a new governance and risk management model has been developed in the Córrego D'Antas basin, through a multi-institutional network integrating local communities, university and governmental institutions as will be presented in this paper.

Producing physically consistent and bias free extreme precipitation events over the Switzerland: Bridging gaps between meteorology and impact models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

José Gómez-Navarro, Juan; Raible, Christoph C.; Blumer, Sandro; Martius, Olivia; Felder, Guido

2016-04-01

Extreme precipitation episodes, although rare, are natural phenomena that can threat human activities, especially in areas densely populated such as Switzerland. Their relevance demands the design of public policies that protect public assets and private property. Therefore, increasing the current understanding of such exceptional situations is required, i.e. the climatic characterisation of their triggering circumstances, severity, frequency, and spatial distribution. Such increased knowledge shall eventually lead us to produce more reliable projections about the behaviour of these events under ongoing climate change. Unfortunately, the study of extreme situations is hampered by the short instrumental record, which precludes a proper characterization of events with return period exceeding few decades. This study proposes a new approach that allows studying storms based on a synthetic, but physically consistent database of weather situations obtained from a long climate simulation. Our starting point is a 500-yr control simulation carried out with the Community Earth System Model (CESM). In a second step, this dataset is dynamically downscaled with the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) to a final resolution of 2 km over the Alpine area. However, downscaling the full CESM simulation at such high resolution is infeasible nowadays. Hence, a number of case studies are previously selected. This selection is carried out examining the precipitation averaged in an area encompassing Switzerland in the ESM. Using a hydrological criterion, precipitation is accumulated in several temporal windows: 1 day, 2 days, 3 days, 5 days and 10 days. The 4 most extreme events in each category and season are selected, leading to a total of 336 days to be simulated. The simulated events are affected by systematic biases that have to be accounted before this data set can be used as input in hydrological models. Thus, quantile mapping is used to remove such biases. For this task, a 20-yr high-resolution control simulation is carried out. The extreme events belong to this distribution, and can be mapped onto the distribution of precipitation obtained from a gridded product of precipitation provided by MeteoSwiss. This procedure yields bias-free extreme precipitation events which serve as input by hydrological models that eventually produce a simulated, yet physically consistent flooding event. Thereby, the proposed methodology guarantees consistency with the underlying physics of extreme events, and reproduces plausible impacts of up to one-in-five-centuries situations.

Enhanced POC export in the oligotrophic northwest Pacific Ocean after extreme weather events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Kuo-Shu; Hung, Chin-Chang; Gong, Gwo-Ching; Chou, Wen-Chen; Chung, Chih-Ching; Shih, Yung-Yen; Wang, Chau-Chang

2013-11-01

study effects of extreme weather events (EWEs, e.g., dust storm and typhoon) on the export of particulate organic carbon (POC) measured by a floating sediment trap in the oligotrophic ocean, eight sea-going expeditions were conducted in the oligotrophic northwest Pacific (NWP) in 2007 and 2008, covering all four seasons and the passage of several EWEs. Results of year-round field observations demonstrate that the POC export fluxes in the oligotrophic NWP did not exhibit apparent seasonal variations yielding an average flux of 36.9 ± 5.8 mg-C m-2 d-1 without EWE effects. With EWE effects, however, the POC export flux (51.7 ± 13.2 mg-C m-2 d-1) showed an approximately 40% increase compared to the average flux measured without EWE effects. These results suggest that EWEs can trigger elevated POC export from the euphotic zone in the oligotrophic ocean.

The efficiency of average linkage hierarchical clustering algorithm associated multi-scale bootstrap resampling in identifying homogeneous precipitation catchments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chuan, Zun Liang; Ismail, Noriszura; Shinyie, Wendy Ling; Lit Ken, Tan; Fam, Soo-Fen; Senawi, Azlyna; Yusoff, Wan Nur Syahidah Wan

2018-04-01

Due to the limited of historical precipitation records, agglomerative hierarchical clustering algorithms widely used to extrapolate information from gauged to ungauged precipitation catchments in yielding a more reliable projection of extreme hydro-meteorological events such as extreme precipitation events. However, identifying the optimum number of homogeneous precipitation catchments accurately based on the dendrogram resulted using agglomerative hierarchical algorithms are very subjective. The main objective of this study is to propose an efficient regionalized algorithm to identify the homogeneous precipitation catchments for non-stationary precipitation time series. The homogeneous precipitation catchments are identified using average linkage hierarchical clustering algorithm associated multi-scale bootstrap resampling, while uncentered correlation coefficient as the similarity measure. The regionalized homogeneous precipitation is consolidated using K-sample Anderson Darling non-parametric test. The analysis result shows the proposed regionalized algorithm performed more better compared to the proposed agglomerative hierarchical clustering algorithm in previous studies.

Radiative characteristics of aerosol during extreme fire event over Siberia in summer 2012

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhuravleva, Tatiana B.; Kabanov, Dmitriy M.; Nasrtdinov, Ilmir M.; Russkova, Tatiana V.; Sakerin, Sergey M.; Smirnov, Alexander; Holben, Brent N.

2017-01-01

Microphysical and optical properties of aerosol were studied during a mega-fire event in summer 2012 over Siberia using ground-based measurements of spectral solar radiation at the AERONET site in Tomsk and satellite observations. The data were analysed using multi-year (2003-2013) measurements of aerosol characteristics under background conditions and for less intense fires, differing in burning biomass type, stage of fire, remoteness from observation site, etc. (ordinary smoke). In June-August 2012, the average aerosol optical depth (AOD, 500 nm) had been 0.95 ± 0.86, about a factor of 6 larger than background values (0.16 ± 0.08), and a factor of 2.5 larger than in ordinary smoke. The AOD values were extremely high on 24-28 July and reached 3-5. A comparison with satellite observations showed that ground-based measurements in the region of Tomsk not only reflect the local AOD features, but are also characteristic for the territory of Western Siberia as a whole. Single scattering albedo (SSA, 440 nm) in this period ranged from 0.91 to 0.99 with an average of ˜ 0.96 in the entire wavelength range of 440-1020 nm. The increase in absorptance of aerosol particles (SSA(440 nm) = 0.92) and decrease in SSA with wavelength observed in ordinary smoke agree with the data from multi-year observations in analogous situations in the boreal zone of USA and Canada. Volume aerosol size distribution in extreme and ordinary smoke had a bimodal character with significant prevalence of fine-mode particles, but in summer 2012 the mean median radius and the width of the fine-mode distribution somewhat increased. In contrast to data from multi-year observations, in summer 2012 an increase in the volume concentration and median radius of the coarse mode was observed with growing AOD. The calculations of the average radiative effects of smoke and background aerosol are presented. Compared to background conditions and ordinary smoke, under the extreme smoke conditions the cooling effect of aerosol considerably intensifies: direct radiative effects (DRE) at the bottom (BOA) and at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) are -13, -35, and -60 W m-2 and -5, -14, and -35 W m-2 respectively. The maximal values of DRE were observed on 27 July (AOD(500 nm) = 3.5), when DRE(BOA) reached -150 W m-2, while DRE(TOA) and DRE of the atmosphere were -75 W m-2. During the fire event in summer 2012 the direct radiative effect efficiency varied in range: at the BOA it was -80-40 W m-2, at the TOA it was -50-20 W m-2 and in the atmosphere it was -35-20 W m-2.

Extreme values and fat tails of multifractal fluctuations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muzy, J. F.; Bacry, E.; Kozhemyak, A.

2006-06-01

In this paper we discuss the problem of the estimation of extreme event occurrence probability for data drawn from some multifractal process. We also study the heavy (power-law) tail behavior of probability density function associated with such data. We show that because of strong correlations, the standard extreme value approach is not valid and classical tail exponent estimators should be interpreted cautiously. Extreme statistics associated with multifractal random processes turn out to be characterized by non-self-averaging properties. Our considerations rely upon some analogy between random multiplicative cascades and the physics of disordered systems and also on recent mathematical results about the so-called multifractal formalism. Applied to financial time series, our findings allow us to propose an unified framework that accounts for the observed multiscaling properties of return fluctuations, the volatility clustering phenomenon and the observed “inverse cubic law” of the return pdf tails.

Extending medium-range predictability of extreme hydrological events in Europe

PubMed Central

Lavers, David A.; Pappenberger, Florian; Zsoter, Ervin

2014-01-01

Widespread flooding occurred across northwest Europe during the winter of 2013/14, resulting in large socioeconomic damages. In the historical record, extreme hydrological events have been connected with intense water vapour transport. Here we show that water vapour transport has higher medium-range predictability compared with precipitation in the winter 2013/14 forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. Applying the concept of potential predictability, the transport is found to extend the forecast horizon by 3 days in some European regions. Our results suggest that the breakdown in precipitation predictability is due to uncertainty in the horizontal mass convergence location, an essential mechanism for precipitation generation. Furthermore, the predictability increases with larger spatial averages. Given the strong association between precipitation and water vapour transport, especially for extreme events, we conclude that the higher transport predictability could be used as a model diagnostic to increase preparedness for extreme hydrological events. PMID:25387309

Contact Time in Random Walk and Random Waypoint: Dichotomy in Tail Distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Chen; Sichitiu, Mihail L.

Contact time (or link duration) is a fundamental factor that affects performance in Mobile Ad Hoc Networks. Previous research on theoretical analysis of contact time distribution for random walk models (RW) assume that the contact events can be modeled as either consecutive random walks or direct traversals, which are two extreme cases of random walk, thus with two different conclusions. In this paper we conduct a comprehensive research on this topic in the hope of bridging the gap between the two extremes. The conclusions from the two extreme cases will result in a power-law or exponential tail in the contact time distribution, respectively. However, we show that the actual distribution will vary between the two extremes: a power-law-sub-exponential dichotomy, whose transition point depends on the average flight duration. Through simulation results we show that such conclusion also applies to random waypoint.

A probabilistic storm transposition approach for estimating exceedance probabilities of extreme precipitation depths

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Foufoula-Georgiou, E.

1989-05-01

A storm transposition approach is investigated as a possible tool of assessing the frequency of extreme precipitation depths, that is, depths of return period much greater than 100 years. This paper focuses on estimation of the annual exceedance probability of extreme average precipitation depths over a catchment. The probabilistic storm transposition methodology is presented, and the several conceptual and methodological difficulties arising in this approach are identified. The method is implemented and is partially evaluated by means of a semihypothetical example involving extreme midwestern storms and two hypothetical catchments (of 100 and 1000 mi2 (˜260 and 2600 km2)) located in central Iowa. The results point out the need for further research to fully explore the potential of this approach as a tool for assessing the probabilities of rare storms, and eventually floods, a necessary element of risk-based analysis and design of large hydraulic structures.

[Responses of alpine grassland landscape in the source region of Shule River Basin to topographical factors and frozen ground types].

PubMed

Chen, Jian-Jun; Yi, Shu-Hua; Qin, Yu; Wang, Xiao-Yun

2014-06-01

This paper retrieved the fractional vegetation cover of alpine grassland in the source region of the Shule River Basin based on Chinese environmental satellite (HJ-1A/1B) images and field data, and analyzed the response of the vegetation cover to topographic factors and types of frozen ground. The results showed that the vegetation coverage of this region was low with large spatial heterogeneity and high degree of dispersion. The landscape consisted mainly of non-vegetation surface types, eg. ice, snow, the bare rock gravel land and bare land. Slopes and aspects were the main limiting factors of vegetation distribution. The average vegetation coverage decreased with the increase of slope. The average vegetation coverage was the lowest on the sunny slope, and the highest on the shady slope. There were significant differences of vegetation coverage among different types of frozen ground. The distribution of vegetation coverage presented a reversed "U" curve trend by extremely stable permafrost, stable permafrost, sub-stable permafrost, transition permafrost, unstable permafrost and seasonal frost, and the average vegetation coverage was the highest in the sub-stable permafrost.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bogacz, Alex

We summarize the current state of a concept for muon acceleration aimed at a future Neutrino Factory and extendable to Higgs Factory. The main thrust of these studies was to reduce the overall cost while maintaining performance by exploring the interplay between the complexity of the cooling systems and the acceptance of the accelerator complex. To ensure adequate survival for the short-lived muons, acceleration must occur at high average gradient. The need for large transverse and longitudinal acceptances drives the design of the acceleration system to an initially low RF frequency, e.g., 325 MHz, which is then increased to 650more » MHz as the transverse size shrinks with increasing energy. High-gradient normal conducting RF cavities at these frequencies require extremely high peak-power RF sources. Hence superconducting RF (SRF) cavities are chosen. We consider an SRF-efficient design based on a multi-pass (4.5) ?dogbone? RLA, extendable to multi-pass FFAG-like arcs.« less

Electron beam emission from a diamond-amplifier cathode.

PubMed

Chang, Xiangyun; Wu, Qiong; Ben-Zvi, Ilan; Burrill, Andrew; Kewisch, Jorg; Rao, Triveni; Smedley, John; Wang, Erdong; Muller, Erik M; Busby, Richard; Dimitrov, Dimitre

2010-10-15

The diamond amplifier (DA) is a new device for generating high-current, high-brightness electron beams. Our transmission-mode tests show that, with single-crystal, high-purity diamonds, the peak current density is greater than 400  mA/mm², while its average density can be more than 100  mA/mm². The gain of the primary electrons easily exceeds 200, and is independent of their density within the practical range of DA applications. We observed the electron emission. The maximum emission gain measured was 40, and the bunch charge was 50  pC/0.5  mm². There was a 35% probability of the emission of an electron from the hydrogenated surface in our tests. We identified a mechanism of slow charging of the diamond due to thermal ionization of surface states that cancels the applied field within it. We also demonstrated that a hydrogenated diamond is extremely robust.

Control of dynamic foot-ground interactions in male and female soccer athletes: females exhibit reduced dexterity and higher limb stiffness during landing.

PubMed

Lyle, Mark A; Valero-Cuevas, Francisco J; Gregor, Robert J; Powers, Christopher M

2014-01-22

Controlling dynamic interactions between the lower limb and ground is important for skilled locomotion and may influence injury risk in athletes. It is well known that female athletes sustain anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) tears at higher rates than male athletes, and exhibit lower extremity biomechanics thought to increase injury risk during sport maneuvers. The purpose of this study was to examine whether lower extremity dexterity (LED)--the ability to dynamically control endpoint force magnitude and direction as quantified by compressing an unstable spring with the lower limb at submaximal forces--is a potential contributing factor to the "at-risk" movement behavior exhibited by female athletes. We tested this hypothesis by comparing LED-test performance and single-limb drop jump biomechanics between 14 female and 14 male high school soccer players. We found that female athletes exhibited reduced LED-test performance (p=0.001) and higher limb stiffness during landing (p=0.008) calculated on average within 51 ms of foot contact. Females also exhibited higher coactivation at the ankle (p=0.001) and knee (p=0.02) before landing. No sex differences in sagittal plane joint angles and center of mass velocity at foot contact were observed. Collectively, our results raise the possibility that the higher leg stiffness observed in females during landing is an anticipatory behavior due in part to reduced lower extremity dexterity. The reduced lower extremity dexterity and compensatory stiffening strategy may contribute to the heightened risk of ACL injury in this population. © 2013 Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Control of dynamic foot-ground interactions in male and female soccer athletes: Females exhibit reduced dexterity and higher limb stiffness during landing

PubMed Central

Lyle, Mark A.; Valero-Cuevas, Francisco J.; Gregor, Robert J.; Powers, Christopher M.

2014-01-01

Controlling dynamic interactions between the lower limb and ground is important for skilled locomotion and may influence injury risk in athletes. It is well known that female athletes sustain anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) tears at higher rates than male athletes, and exhibit lower extremity biomechanics thought to increase injury risk during sport maneuvers. The purpose of this study was to examine whether lower extremity dexterity (LED) – the ability to dynamically control endpoint force magnitude and direction as quantified by compressing an unstable spring with the lower limb at submaximal forces – is a potential contributing factor to the “at-risk” movement behavior exhibited by female athletes. We tested this hypothesis by comparing LED-test performance and single-limb drop jump biomechanics between 14 female and 14 male high school soccer players. We found that female athletes exhibited reduced LED-test performance (p=0.001) and higher limb stiffness during landing (p=0.008) calculated on average within 51 ms of foot contact. Females also exhibited higher coactivation at the ankle (p=0.001) and knee (p=0.02) before landing. No sex differences in sagittal plane joint angles and center of mass velocity at foot contact were observed. Collectively, our results raise the possibility that the higher leg stiffness observed in females during landing is an anticipatory behavior due in part to reduced lower extremity dexterity. The reduced lower extremity dexterity and compensatory stiffening strategy may contribute to the heightened risk of ACL injury in this population. PMID:24275440

Dynamical properties and extremes of Northern Hemisphere climate fields over the past 60 years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Faranda, Davide; Messori, Gabriele; Alvarez-Castro, M. Carmen; Yiou, Pascal

2017-12-01

Atmospheric dynamics are described by a set of partial differential equations yielding an infinite-dimensional phase space. However, the actual trajectories followed by the system appear to be constrained to a finite-dimensional phase space, i.e. a strange attractor. The dynamical properties of this attractor are difficult to determine due to the complex nature of atmospheric motions. A first step to simplify the problem is to focus on observables which affect - or are linked to phenomena which affect - human welfare and activities, such as sea-level pressure, 2 m temperature, and precipitation frequency. We make use of recent advances in dynamical systems theory to estimate two instantaneous dynamical properties of the above fields for the Northern Hemisphere: local dimension and persistence. We then use these metrics to characterize the seasonality of the different fields and their interplay. We further analyse the large-scale anomaly patterns corresponding to phase-space extremes - namely time steps at which the fields display extremes in their instantaneous dynamical properties. The analysis is based on the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, over the period 1948-2013. The results show that (i) despite the high dimensionality of atmospheric dynamics, the Northern Hemisphere sea-level pressure and temperature fields can on average be described by roughly 20 degrees of freedom; (ii) the precipitation field has a higher dimensionality; and (iii) the seasonal forcing modulates the variability of the dynamical indicators and affects the occurrence of phase-space extremes. We further identify a number of robust correlations between the dynamical properties of the different variables.

Changes in Extremely Hot Summers over the Global Land Area under Various Warming Targets

PubMed Central

Wang, Lei; Huang, Jianbin; Luo, Yong; Yao, Yao; Zhao, Zongci

2015-01-01

Summer temperature extremes over the global land area were investigated by comparing 26 models of the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) with observations from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) and the Climate Research Unit (CRU). Monthly data of the observations and models were averaged for each season, and statistics were calculated for individual models before averaging them to obtain ensemble means. The summers with temperature anomalies (relative to 1951–1980) exceeding 3σ (σ is based on the local internal variability) are defined as “extremely hot”. The models well reproduced the statistical characteristics evolution, and partly captured the spatial distributions of historical summer temperature extremes. If the global mean temperature increases 2°C relative to the pre-industrial level, “extremely hot” summers are projected to occur over nearly 40% of the land area (multi-model ensemble mean projection). Summers that exceed 5σ warming are projected to occur over approximately 10% of the global land area, which were rarely observed during the reference period. Scenarios reaching warming levels of 3°C to 5°C were also analyzed. After exceeding the 5°C warming target, “extremely hot” summers are projected to occur throughout the entire global land area, and summers that exceed 5σ warming would become common over 70% of the land area. In addition, the areas affected by “extremely hot” summers are expected to rapidly expand by more than 25%/°C as the global mean temperature increases by up to 3°C before slowing to less than 16%/°C as the temperature continues to increase by more than 3°C. The area that experiences summers with warming of 5σ or more above the warming target of 2°C is likely to maintain rapid expansion of greater than 17%/°C. To reduce the impacts and damage from severely hot summers, the global mean temperature increase should remain low. PMID:26090931

Climate Assessment for 2000.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lawrimore, Jay H.; Halpert, Michael S.; Bell, Gerald D.; Menne, Matthew J.; Lyon, Bradfield; Schnell, Russell C.; Gleason, Karin L.; Easterling, David R.; Thiaw, Wasila; Wright, William J.; Heim, Richard R., Jr.; Robinson, David A.; Alexander, Lisa

2001-06-01

The global climate in 2000 was again influenced by the long-running Pacific cold episode (La Niña) that began in mid-1998. Consistent with past cold episodes, enhanced convection occurred across the climatologically convective regions of Indonesia and the western equatorial Pacific, while convection was suppressed in the central Pacific. The La Niña was also associated with a well-defined African easterly jet located north of its climatological mean position and low vertical wind shear in the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean, both of which contributed to an active North Atlantic hurricane season. Precipitation patterns influenced by typical La Niña conditions included 1) above-average rainfall in southeastern Africa, 2) unusually heavy rainfall in northern and central regions of Australia, 3) enhanced precipitation in the tropical Indian Ocean and western tropical Pacific, 4) little rainfall in the central tropical Pacific, 5) below-normal precipitation over equatorial east Africa, and 6) drier-than-normal conditions along the Gulf coast of the United States.Although no hurricanes made landfall in the United States in 2000, another active North Atlantic hurricane season featured 14 named storms, 8 of which became hurricanes, with 3 growing to major hurricane strength. All of the named storms over the North Atlantic formed during the August-October period with the first hurricane of the season, Hurricane Alberto, notable as the third-longest-lived tropical system since reliable records began in 1945. The primary human loss during the 2000 season occurred in Central America, where Hurricane Gordon killed 19 in Guatemala, and Hurricane Keith killed 19 in Belize and caused $200 million dollars of damage.Other regional events included 1) record warm January-October temperatures followed by record cold November-December temperatures in the United States, 2) extreme drought and widespread wildfires in the southern and western Unites States, 3) continued long-term drought in the Hawaiian Islands throughout the year with record 24-h rainfall totals in November, 4) deadly storms and flooding in western Europe in October, 5) a summer heat wave and drought in southern Europe, 6) monsoon flooding in parts of Southeast Asia and India, 7) extreme winter conditions in Mongolia, 8) extreme long-term drought in the Middle East and Southwest Asia, and 9) severe flooding in southern Africa.Global mean temperatures remained much above average in 2000. The average land and ocean temperature was 0.39°C above the 1880-1999 long-term mean, continuing a trend to warmer-than-average temperatures that made the 1990s the warmest decade on record. While the persistence of La Niña conditions in 2000 was associated with somewhat cooler temperatures in the Tropics, temperatures in the extratropics remained near record levels. Land surface temperatures in the high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere were notably warmer than normal, with annually averaged anomalies greater than 2°C in parts of Alaska, Canada, Asia, and northern Europe.

Modeling of grain size strengthening in tantalum at high pressures and strain rates

DOE PAGES

Rudd, Robert E.; Park, H. -S.; Cavallo, R. M.; ...

2017-01-01

Laser-driven ramp wave compression experiments have been used to investigate the strength (flow stress) of tantalum and other metals at high pressures and high strain rates. Recently this kind of experiment has been used to assess the dependence of the strength on the average grain size of the material, finding no detectable variation with grain size. The insensitivity to grain size has been understood theoretically to result from the dominant effect of the high dislocation density generated at the extremely high strain rates of the experiment. Here we review the experiments and describe in detail the multiscale strength model usedmore » to simulate them. The multiscale strength model has been extended to include the effect of geometrically necessary dislocations generated at the grain boundaries during compatible plastic flow in the polycrystalline metal. Lastly, we use the extended model to make predictions of the threshold strain rates and grain sizes below which grain size strengthening would be observed in the laser-driven Rayleigh-Taylor experiments.« less

Long-term operation of surface high-harmonic generation from relativistic oscillating mirrors using a spooling tape

DOE PAGES

Bierbach, Jana; Yeung, Mark; Eckner, Erich; ...

2015-05-01

Surface high-harmonic generation in the relativistic regime is demonstrated as a source of extreme ultra-violet (XUV) pulses with extended operation time. Relativistic high-harmonic generation is driven by a frequency-doubled high-power Ti:Sapphire laser focused to a peak intensity of 3·1019 W/cm2 onto spooling tapes. We demonstrate continuous operation over up to one hour runtime at a repetition rate of 1 Hz. Harmonic spectra ranging from 20 eV to 70 eV (62 nm to 18 nm) were consecutively recorded by an XUV spectrometer. An average XUV pulse energy in the µJ range is measured. With the presented setup, relativistic surface high-harmonic generationmore » becomes a powerful source of coherent XUV pulses that might enable applications in, e.g. attosecond laser physics and the seeding of free-electron lasers, when the laser issues causing 80-% pulse energy fluctuations are overcome.« less

Pressure-strain-rate events in homogeneous turbulent shear flow

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brasseur, James G.; Lee, Moon J.

1988-01-01

A detailed study of the intercomponent energy transfer processes by the pressure-strain-rate in homogeneous turbulent shear flow is presented. Probability density functions (pdf's) and contour plots of the rapid and slow pressure-strain-rate show that the energy transfer processes are extremely peaky, with high-magnitude events dominating low-magnitude fluctuations, as reflected by very high flatness factors of the pressure-strain-rate. A concept of the energy transfer class was applied to investigate details of the direction as well as magnitude of the energy transfer processes. In incompressible flow, six disjoint energy transfer classes exist. Examination of contours in instantaneous fields, pdf's and weighted pdf's of the pressure-strain-rate indicates that in the low magnitude regions all six classes play an important role, but in the high magnitude regions four classes of transfer processes, dominate. The contribution to the average slow pressure-strain-rate from the high magnitude fluctuations is only 50 percent or less. The relative significance of high and low magnitude transfer events is discussed.

Simulation and assessment of urbanization impacts on runoff metrics: insights from landuse changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Yongyong; Xia, Jun; Yu, Jingjie; Randall, Mark; Zhang, Yichi; Zhao, Tongtiegang; Pan, Xingyao; Zhai, Xiaoyan; Shao, Quanxi

2018-05-01

Urbanization-induced landuse changes alter runoff regimes in complex ways. In this study, a detailed investigation of the urbanization impacts on runoff regimes is provided by using multiple runoff metrics and with consideration of landuse dynamics. A catchment hydrological model is modified by coupling a simplified flow routing module of the urban drainage system and landuse dynamics to improve long-term urban runoff simulations. Moreover, multivariate statistical approach is adopted to mine the spatial variations of runoff metrics so as to further identify critical impact factors of landuse changes. The Qing River catchment as a peri-urban catchment in the Beijing metropolitan area is selected as our study region. Results show that: (1) the dryland agriculture is decreased from 13.9% to 1.5% of the total catchment area in the years 2000-2015, while the percentages of impervious surface, forest and grass are increased from 63.5% to 72.4%, 13.5% to 16.6% and 5.1% to 6.5%, respectively. The most dramatic landuse changes occur in the middle and downstream regions; (2) The combined landuse changes do not alter the average flow metrics obviously at the catchment outlet, but slightly increase the high flow metrics, particularly the extreme high flows; (3) The impacts on runoff metrics in the sub-catchments are more obvious than those at the catchment outlet. For the average flow metrics, the most impacted metric is the runoff depth in the dry season (October ∼ May) with a relative change from -10.9% to 11.6%, and the critical impact factors are the impervious surface and grass. For the high flow metrics, the extreme high flow depth is increased most significantly with a relative change from -0.6% to 10.5%, and the critical impact factors are the impervious surface and dryland agriculture; (4) The runoff depth metrics in the sub-catchments are increased because of the landuse changes from dryland agriculture to impervious surface, but are decreased because of the landuse changes from dryland agriculture or impervious surface to grass or forest. The results of this study provide useful information for urban planning such as Sponge City design.

Colony Failure Linked to Low Sperm Viability in Honey Bee (Apis mellifera) Queens and an Exploration of Potential Causative Factors.

PubMed

Pettis, Jeffery S; Rice, Nathan; Joselow, Katie; vanEngelsdorp, Dennis; Chaimanee, Veeranan

2016-01-01

Queen health is closely linked to colony performance in honey bees as a single queen is normally responsible for all egg laying and brood production within the colony. In the U. S. in recent years, queens have been failing at a high rate; with 50% or greater of queens replaced in colonies within 6 months when historically a queen might live one to two years. This high rate of queen failure coincides with the high mortality rates of colonies in the US, some years with >50% of colonies dying. In the current study, surveys of sperm viability in US queens were made to determine if sperm viability plays a role in queen or colony failure. Wide variation was observed in sperm viability from four sets of queens removed from colonies that beekeepers rated as in good health (n = 12; average viability = 92%), were replacing as part of normal management (n = 28; 57%), or where rated as failing (n = 18 and 19; 54% and 55%). Two additional paired set of queens showed a statistically significant difference in viability between colonies rated by the beekeeper as failing or in good health from the same apiaries. Queens removed from colonies rated in good health averaged high viability (ca. 85%) while those rated as failing or in poor health had significantly lower viability (ca. 50%). Thus low sperm viability was indicative of, or linked to, colony performance. To explore the source of low sperm viability, six commercial queen breeders were surveyed and wide variation in viability (range 60-90%) was documented between breeders. This variability could originate from the drones the queens mate with or temperature extremes that queens are exposed to during shipment. The role of shipping temperature as a possible explanation for low sperm viability was explored. We documented that during shipment queens are exposed to temperature spikes (<8 and > 40°C) and these spikes can kill 50% or more of the sperm stored in queen spermathecae in live queens. Clearly low sperm viability is linked to colony performance and laboratory and field data provide evidence that temperature extremes are a potential causative factor.

Lifestyle and nutrition related to male longevity in Sardinia: an ecological study.

PubMed

Pes, G M; Tolu, F; Poulain, M; Errigo, A; Masala, S; Pietrobelli, A; Battistini, N C; Maioli, M

2013-03-01

A demographic analysis in the Mediterranean island of Sardinia revealed marked differences in extreme longevity across the 377 municipalities and particularly identified a mountain inner area where the proportion of oldest subjects among male population has one of the highest validated value worldwide. The cause(s) of this unequal distribution of male longevity may be attributed to a concurrence of environmental, lifestyle and genetic factors. In this study we focussed on some lifestyle and nutrition variables recorded in the island's population in early decades of 20th century, when agricultural and pastoral economy was still prevalent, and try to verify through ecological spatial models if they may account for the variability in male longevity. By computing the Extreme Longevity Index (the proportion of newborns in a given municipality who reach age 100) the island's territory was divided in two areas with relatively higher and lower level of population longevity. Most nutritional variables do not show any significant difference between these two areas whereas a significant difference was found with respect to pastoralism (P = 0.0001), physical activity estimated by the average slope of the territory in each municipality (P = 0.0001), and average daily distance required by the active population to reach the usual workplace (P = 0.0001). Overall, these findings suggest that factors affecting the average energy expenditure of male population such as occupational activity and geographic characteristics of the area where the population mainly resides, are important in explaining the spatial variation of Sardinian extreme longevity. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Synthesis and properties of electrically conductive, ductile, extremely long (~50 μm) nanosheets of K(x)CoO2·yH2O.

PubMed

Aksit, Mahmut; Hoselton, Benjamin C; Kim, Ha Jun; Ha, Don-Hyung; Robinson, Richard D

2013-09-25

Extremely long, electrically conductive, ductile, free-standing nanosheets of water-stabilized KxCoO2·yH2O are synthesized using the sol-gel and electric-field induced kinetic-demixing (SGKD) process. Room temperature in-plane resistivity of the KxCoO2·yH2O nanosheets is less than ~4.7 mΩ·cm, which corresponds to one of the lowest resistivity values reported for metal oxide nanosheets. The synthesis produces tens of thousands of very high aspect ratio (50,000:50,000:1 = length/width/thickness), millimeter length nanosheets stacked into a macro-scale pellet. Free-standing nanosheets up to ~50 μm long are readily delaminated from the stacked nanosheets. High-resolution transmission electron microscopy (HR-TEM) studies of the free-standing nanosheets indicate that the delaminated pieces consist of individual nanosheet crystals that are turbostratically stacked. X-ray diffraction (XRD) studies confirm that the nanosheets are stacked in perfect registry along their c-axis. Scanning electron microscopy (SEM) based statistical analysis show that the average thickness of the nanosheets is ~13 nm. The nanosheets show ductility with a bending radius as small as ~5 nm.

[Thermal tolerance, diel variation of body temperature, and thermal dependence of locomotor performance of hatchling soft-shelled turtles, Trionyx sinensis].

PubMed

Sun, Pingyue; Xu, Xiaoyin; Chen, Huili; Ji, Xiang

2002-09-01

The thermal tolerance, body temperature, and influence of temperature on locomotor performance of hatchling soft-shelled turtles (Trionyx sinensis) were studied under dry and wet conditions, and the selected body temperature of hatchlings was 28.0 and 30.3 degrees C, respectively. Under wet condition, the critical thermal maximum and minimum averaged 40.9 and 7.8 degrees C, respectively. In the environments without thermal gradients, the diel variation of body temperature was highly consistent with the variation of both air and water temperatures, and the body temperature was more directly affected by water temperature than by air temperature, which implied that the physiological thermoregulation of hatchling T. sinensis was very weak. In the environments with thermal gradients, hatchling turtles could maintain relatively high and constant body temperatures, primarily through behavioral thermoregulation. The locomotor performance of hatchling turtles was highly dependent on their body temperature. Within a certain range, the locomotor performance increased with increasing body temperature. In our study, the optimal body temperature for locomotor performance was 31.5 degrees C, under which, the maximum continuous running distance, running distance per minute, and number of stops per minute averaged 1.87 m, 4.92 m.min-1, and 6.2 times.min-1, respectively. The correspondent values at 33.0 degrees C averaged 1.30 m, 4.28 m.min-1, and 7.7 times.min-1, respectively, which indicated that the locomotor performance of hatchling turtles was impaired at 33.0 degrees C. Therefore, extremely high body temperatures might have an adverse effect on locomotor performance of hatchling turtles.

Specific net present value: an improved method for assessing modularisation costs in water services with growing demand.

PubMed

Maurer, M

2009-05-01

A specific net present value (SNPV) approach is introduced as a criterion in economic engineering decisions. The SNPV expresses average costs, including the growth rate and plant utilisation over the planning horizon, factors that are excluded from a standard net present value approach. The use of SNPV favours alternatives that are cheaper per service unit and are therefore closer to the costs that a user has to cover. It also shows that demand growth has a similar influence on average costs as an economy of scale. In a high growth scenario, solutions providing less idle capacity can have higher present value costs and still be economically favourable. The SNPV approach is applied in two examples to calculate acceptable additional costs for modularisation and comparable costs for on-site treatment (OST) as an extreme form of modularisation. The calculations show that: (i) the SNPV approach is suitable for quantifying the comparable costs of an OST system in a different scenario; (ii) small systems with projected high demand growth rates and high real interest rates are the most probable entry market for OST water treatment systems; (iii) operating expenses are currently the main economic weakness of membrane-based wastewater OST systems; and (iv) when high growth in demand is expected, up to 100% can be additionally invested in modularisation and staging the expansion of a treatment plant.

The effect of climate variability on the carbon cycle of a Mediterranean forest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manca, G.; Tirone, G.; Matteucci, G.; Tonon, G.; Cherubini, P.; Goded Ballarin, I.; Duerr, M.; Matteucci, M.; Seufert, G.

2009-04-01

Measurements of Net Ecosystem Exchange (NEE) of carbon dioxide have operated since 1999 in the Mediterranean forest ecosystem (Pinus pinaster, L.) located in San Rossore (Pisa - Italy). Using night time values of NEE it is possible to estimate the Ecosystem Respiration (Reco) and the Gross Ecosystem Productivity (GEP), i.e. the photosynthetic uptake of CO2 without respiratory losses. The analysis of such fluxes shows that on annual base San Rossore is a CO2 sink. This ecosystem experiences a strong reduction of carbon uptake during summer when the rainfall is low and the air temperature is high. In such condition trees close stomata in order to avoid alteration of the leaf water status. This is the typical behaviour of the drought avoiding species. The reduction of the carbon uptake is due mainly to a reduction of photosynthesis whereas the ecosystem respiration undergoes a lower decrease. The summer 2003 is an extreme example of this pattern. The long time series collected in San Rossore allows to test the reaction of the forest to a wet summer (summer 2002), when the rainfall was 506 mm (300 mm more than the summer average 1999-2007), and the effect of high temperature in winter (January 2007). During summer 2002 both GEP and Reco were higher than the average but the GEP experienced the higher increase. The high temperature in January 2007 (3 °C higher than the average 1999-2007), was responsible for the huge increase of the ecosystem respiration not balanced by the little increase of GEP.

Identification and characterization of extraordinary rainstorms in Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Libertino, Andrea; Ganora, Daniele; Claps, Pierluigi

2017-04-01

Despite its generally mild climate, Italy, as most of the Mediterranean region, is prone to the development of "super-extreme" events with extraordinary rainfall intensities. The main triggering mechanisms of these events is nowadays quite well known, but more research is needed to transform this knowledge in directions to build updated rainstorm hazard maps at the national scale. Moreover, a precise definition of "super-extremes" is still lacking, since the original suggestion of a second specific EV1 component made with the TCEV distribution. The above considerations led us to consider Italy a peculiar and challenging case study, where the geographic and orographic settings, associated with recurring storm-induced disasters, require an updated assessment of the "super-extreme" rainfall hazard at the country scale. Until now, the lack of a unique dataset of rainfall extremes has made the above task difficult to reach. In this work we report the results of the analysis made on a comprehensive and uniform set of rainfall annual maxima, collected from the different authorities in charge, representing the reference dataset of extremes from 1 to 24 hours duration. The database includes more than 6000 measuring points nationwide, spanning the period 1916 - 2014. Our analysis aims at identifying a meaningful population of records deviating from an "ordinary" definition of extreme value distribution, and assessing the stationarity in the timing of these events at the national scale. The first problems that need to be overcome are related to the not uniform distribution of data in time and space. Then the evaluation of meaningful relative thresholds aimed at selecting significant samples for the trend assessment has to be addressed. A first investigation attempt refers to the events exceeding a threshold that identify an average of one occurrence per year all over Italy, i.e. with a 1/1000 overall probability of exceedance. Geographic representation of these "outliers", scaled on local averages, demonstrates some prevailing clustering on the Thyrrenian coastal areas. Subsequent application of quantile regressions, aimed at minimizing the temporal non-uniformity of samples, shows significant increasing trends on the extremes of very short duration. Further efforts have been undertaken to explore the selection of a common national set of higher order parameters all over Italy, that would make less arduous to identify the probability of occurrence of "super-extremes" in the country.

Intermittent burst of a super rogue wave in the breathing multi-soliton regime of an anomalous fiber ring cavity.

PubMed

Lee, Seungjong; Park, Kyoungyoon; Kim, Hyuntai; Vazquez-Zuniga, Luis Alonso; Kim, Jinseob; Jeong, Yoonchan

2018-04-30

We report the intermittent burst of a super rogue wave in the multi-soliton (MS) regime of an anomalous-dispersion fiber ring cavity. We exploit the spatio-temporal measurement technique to log and capture the shot-to-shot wave dynamics of various pulse events in the cavity, and obtain the corresponding intensity probability density function, which eventually unveils the inherent nature of the extreme events encompassed therein. In the breathing MS regime, a specific MS regime with heavy soliton population, the natural probability of pulse interaction among solitons and dispersive waves exponentially increases owing to the extraordinarily high soliton population density. Combination of the probabilistically started soliton interactions and subsequently accompanying dispersive waves in their vicinity triggers an avalanche of extreme events with even higher intensities, culminating to a burst of a super rogue wave nearly ten times stronger than the average solitons observed in the cavity. Without any cavity modification or control, the process naturally and intermittently recurs within a time scale in the order of ten seconds.

Science& Technology Review October 2003

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

McMahon, D H

2003-10-01

The October 2003 issue of Science & Technology Review consists of the following articles: (1) Award-Winning Technologies from Collaborative Efforts--Commentary by Hal Graboske; (2) BASIS Counters Airborne Bioterrorism--The Biological Aerosol Sentry and Information System is the first integrated biodefense system; (3) In the Chips for the Coming Decade--A new system is the first full-field lithography tool for use at extreme ultraviolet wavelengths; (4) Smoothing the Way to Print the Next Generation of Computer Chips--With ion-beam thin-film planarization, the reticles and projection optics made for extreme ultraviolet lithography are nearly defect-free; (5) Eyes Can See Clearly Now--The MEMS-based adaptive optics phoroptermore » improves the process of measuring and correcting eyesight aberrations; (6) This Switch Takes the Heat--A thermally compensated Q-switch reduces the light leakage on high-average-power lasers; (7) Laser Process Forms Thick, Curved Metal Parts--A new process shapes parts to exact specifications, improving their resistance to fatigue and corrosion cracking; and (8) Characterizing Tiny Objects without Damaging Them--Livermore researchers are developing nondestructive techniques to probe the Lilliputian world of mesoscale objects.« less

Irrigation mitigates against heat extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thiery, Wim; Fischer, Erich; Visser, Auke; Hirsch, Annette L.; Davin, Edouard L.; Lawrence, Dave; Hauser, Mathias; Seneviratne, Sonia I.

2017-04-01

Irrigation is an essential practice for sustaining global food production and many regional economies. Emerging scientific evidence indicates that irrigation substantially affects mean climate conditions in different regions of the world. Yet how this practice influences climate extremes is currently unknown. Here we use gridded observations and ensemble simulations with the Community Earth System Model to assess the impacts of irrigation on climate extremes. While the influence of irrigation on annual mean temperatures is limited, we find a large impact on temperature extremes, with a particularly strong cooling during the hottest day of the year (-0.78 K averaged over irrigated land). The strong influence on hot extremes stems from the timing of irrigation and its influence on land-atmosphere coupling strength. Together these effects result in asymmetric temperature responses, with a more pronounced cooling during hot and/or dry periods. The influence of irrigation is even more pronounced when considering subgrid-scale model output, suggesting that local effects of land management are far more important than previously thought. Finally we find that present-day irrigation is partly masking GHG-induced warming of extreme temperatures, with particularly strong effects in South Asia. Our results overall underline that irrigation substantially reduces our exposure to hot temperature extremes and highlight the need to account for irrigation in future climate projections.

Modeling Sea Ice Trajectories for Oil Spill Tracking.

DTIC Science & Technology

1981-06-01

is compared with sea ice motions observed during the AIDJEX main field experiment in the Beaufort Sea from April 1975 to February 1976. The average ...more recently grown on leads formed as the floes fracture and divide. The large-scale average thickness of the pack ice is roughly 3 m. As an...opposite extreme, during the summer when air temperatures rise above freezing, melting and offshore winds combine to form an approximately 300-km-wide swath

Cave Conservation Priority Index to Adopt a Rapid Protection Strategy: A Case Study in Brazilian Atlantic Rain Forest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Souza Silva, Marconi; Martins, Rogério Parentoni; Ferreira, Rodrigo Lopes

2015-02-01

Cave environments are characterized by possessing specialized fauna living in high environmental stability with limited food conditions. These fauna are highly vulnerable to impacts, because this condition can frequently be easily altered. Moreover, environmental determinants of the biodiversity patterns of caves remain poorly understood and protected. Therefore, the main goal of this work is to propose a cave conservation priority index (CCPi) for a rapid assessment for troglobiotic and troglophile protection. Furthermore, the troglobiotic diversity, distribution and threats have been mapped in the Brazilian Atlantic forest. To propose the CCPi, the human impacts and richness of troglobiotic and troglophile species of 100 caves were associated. Data related to troglomorphic/troglobiotic fauna from another 200 caves were used to map the troglobiotic diversity and distribution. The CCPi reveals extremely high conservation priority for 15 % of the caves, high for 36 % and average for 46 % of the caves. Fourteen caves with extremely high priorities should have urgent conservation and management actions. The geographical distribution of the 221 known troglobiotic/troglomorphic species allowed us to select 19 karst areas that need conservation actions. Seven areas were considered to have urgent priority for conservation actions. The two richest areas correspond to the "iron quadrangle" with iron ore caves (67 spp.) and the "Açungui limestone group" (56 spp.). Both areas have several caves and are important aquifers. The use of the CCPi can prevent future losses because it helps assessors to select caves with priorities for conservation which should receive emergency attention in relation to protection, management and conservation actions.

Risk Factor, Job Stress and Quality of Life in Workers With Lower Extremity Pain Who Use Video Display Terminals

PubMed Central

2018-01-01

Objective To investigate the general characteristics of video display terminal (VDT) workers with lower extremity pain, to identify the risk factors of work-related lower extremity pain, and to examine the relationship between work stress and health-related quality of life. Methods A questionnaire about the general characteristics of the survey group and the musculoskeletal symptom was used. A questionnaire about job stress used the Korean Occupational Stress Scale and medical outcome study 36-item Short Form Health Survey (SF-36) to assess health-related quality of life. Results There were 1,711 subjects in the lower extremity group and 2,208 subjects in the control group. Age, sex, hobbies, and feeling of loading affected lower extremity pain as determined in a crossover analysis of all variables with and without lower extremity pain. There were no statistically significant difference between the two groups in terms of job stress and SF-36 values of the pain and control groups. Conclusion Job stress in VDT workers was higher than average, and the quality of life decreased as the stress increased. Factors such as younger age, women, hobbies other than exercise, and feeling of loading influenced lower extremity pain of workers. Further long-term follow-up and supplementary studies are needed to identify risk factors for future lower extremity pain, taking into account ergonomic factors such as worker's posture. PMID:29560330

Extreme and superextreme events in a loss-modulated CO2 laser: Nonlinear resonance route and precursors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bonatto, Cristian; Endler, Antonio

2017-07-01

We investigate the occurrence of extreme and rare events, i.e., giant and rare light pulses, in a periodically modulated CO2 laser model. Due to nonlinear resonant processes, we show a scenario of interaction between chaotic bands of different orders, which may lead to the formation of extreme and rare events. We identify a crisis line in the modulation parameter space, and we show that, when the modulation amplitude increases, remaining in the vicinity of the crisis, some statistical properties of the laser pulses, such as the average and dispersion of amplitudes, do not change much, whereas the amplitude of extreme events grows enormously, giving rise to extreme events with much larger deviations than usually reported, with a significant probability of occurrence, i.e., with a long-tailed non-Gaussian distribution. We identify recurrent regular patterns, i.e., precursors, that anticipate the emergence of extreme and rare events, and we associate these regular patterns with unstable periodic orbits embedded in a chaotic attractor. We show that the precursors may or may not lead to the emergence of extreme events. Thus, we compute the probability of success or failure (false alarm) in the prediction of the extreme events, once a precursor is identified in the deterministic time series. We show that this probability depends on the accuracy with which the precursor is identified in the laser intensity time series.

Risk Factor, Job Stress and Quality of Life in Workers With Lower Extremity Pain Who Use Video Display Terminals.

PubMed

Choi, Sehoon; Jang, Seong Ho; Lee, Kyu Hoon; Kim, Mi Jung; Park, Si-Bog; Han, Seung Hoon

2018-02-01

To investigate the general characteristics of video display terminal (VDT) workers with lower extremity pain, to identify the risk factors of work-related lower extremity pain, and to examine the relationship between work stress and health-related quality of life. A questionnaire about the general characteristics of the survey group and the musculoskeletal symptom was used. A questionnaire about job stress used the Korean Occupational Stress Scale and medical outcome study 36-item Short Form Health Survey (SF-36) to assess health-related quality of life. There were 1,711 subjects in the lower extremity group and 2,208 subjects in the control group. Age, sex, hobbies, and feeling of loading affected lower extremity pain as determined in a crossover analysis of all variables with and without lower extremity pain. There were no statistically significant difference between the two groups in terms of job stress and SF-36 values of the pain and control groups. Job stress in VDT workers was higher than average, and the quality of life decreased as the stress increased. Factors such as younger age, women, hobbies other than exercise, and feeling of loading influenced lower extremity pain of workers. Further long-term follow-up and supplementary studies are needed to identify risk factors for future lower extremity pain, taking into account ergonomic factors such as worker's posture.

Major lower extremity lawn mower injuries in children.

PubMed

Dormans, J P; Azzoni, M; Davidson, R S; Drummond, D S

1995-01-01

Between 1983 and 1993, 16 children with 18 lower extremity power lawn mower-related injuries were treated at Children's Hospital of Philadelphia. Eleven of 16 patients (69%) were bystanders or nonoperators. The average age at injury was 4 years 9 months. Length of follow-up averaged 3 years 10 months. There was an average of 4.9 procedures per patient. Fourteen of the 18 limbs injured required eventual amputation (78%). We propose a new classification of lawn mower injuries in children. The most common injury (16 of 18 limbs) was a shredding type injury and was either intercalary or distal. The second was a paucilaceration type (two of 18 limbs). Of the four salvaged limbs, there were two shredding type injuries, and on most recent follow-up are considered to have poor results. The two patients with the paucilaceration type injuries and limb salvage are considered to have excellent results. All patients with a shredding type injury ultimately required amputation or had poor results with the salvaged limb. Limb salvage surgery was associated with prolonged hospitalizations, a higher incidence of surgical problems, a longer treatment course, and more complications than early ablative procedures.

Role 2 military hospitals: results of a new trauma care concept on 170 casualties.

PubMed

Ünlü, A; Cetinkaya, R A; Ege, T; Ozmen, P; Hurmeric, V; Ozer, M T; Petrone, P

2015-04-01

In recent military conflicts, military surgeons encounter more high-energy injuries associated with explosives. Advances in the field care and shorter evacuation time increased survival. However, casualties still incur severe injuries especially to the extremities. We present wound patterns, anatomical distribution and severity of injuries in a Role 2 hospital. Two years data have been retrospectively reviewed. Only explosives and firearms injuries were included in the study. Patient profile, admission details, mechanism of injury, AIS anatomical locations, ISS, surgical and medical treatments have been analyzed. Data revealed 170 male casualties. IEDs and GSW accounted for 133 (78%) and 37 (22%) casualties, respectively. An average of 1.8 IED and 1.2 GSW anatomical locations were exposed to injuries. Regardless of the mechanism, injuries were most commonly located in the extremities. IEDs caused significantly higher soft tissue injuries. Explosives do not necessarily cause more severe injuries than firearms. However, fragments create multiple, complicated soft tissue injuries which constitute more than half of the injuries. Timely wound debridement and excision of contaminated tissue are crucial to manage extremity soft tissue injuries. Casualty care should be assessed within the context of the capabilities present at a hospital and the cause, type and severity of the wounds. The NATO description of Role 2 care only requires an integrated surgical team for damage control surgery with limited diagnostic and infrastructural capabilities.

Effects of an extreme flood on river morphology (case study: Karoon River, Iran)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yousefi, Saleh; Mirzaee, Somayeh; Keesstra, Saskia; Surian, Nicola; Pourghasemi, Hamid Reza; Zakizadeh, Hamid Reza; Tabibian, Sahar

2018-03-01

An extreme flood occurred on 14 April 2016 in the Karoon River, Iran. The occurred flood discharge was the highest discharge recorded over the last 60 years in the Karoon River. Using the OLI Landsat images taken on 8 April 2016 (before the flood) and 24 April 2016 (after the flood) the geomorphic effects were detected in different land cover types within the 155-km-long study reach. The results show that the flood significantly affected the channel width and the main effect was high mobilization of channel sediments and severe bank erosion in the meandering reaches. According to field surveys, the flood occupied the channel corridor and even the floodplain parts. However, the channel pattern was not significantly altered, although the results show that the average channel width increased from 192 to 256 m. Statistical results indicate a significant change for active channel width and sinuosity index at 99% confidence level for both indexes. The flood-induced morphological changes varied significantly for different land cover types along the Karoon River. Specifically, the channel has widened less in residential areas than in other land cover types because of the occurrence of bank protection structures. However, the value of bank retreat in residential and protected sides of the Karoon River is more than what we expected during the study of extreme flood.

Predicting the possibility of not yet observed situations as higher goal of space environment standards.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nymmik, Rikho

Space environment models are intended for fairly describing the quantitative behavior of nature space environment. Usually, they are constructed on the basis of some experimental data set generalization, which is characteristic of the conditions that were taking place during measurement period. It is often to see that such models state and postulate realities of the past. The typical example of this point of view is the situation around extremely SEP events. During dozens of years models of such events have been based on the largest occurrences observed, which features were measured by some instruments with the reliability that was not always analyzed. It is obvious, that this way does not agree with reality, because any new extreme event conflicts with it. From this follow that space environment models can not be created by using numerical observed data only, when such data are changing in time, or have the probability nature. The model's goal is not only describing the average environment characteristics, but the predicting of extreme ones too. Such a prediction can only be result of analyzing the causes that stimulate environment change and taking them into account in model parameters. In this report we present the analysis of radiation environment formed by solar-generated high energy particles. A progresses and failures of SEP event modeling attempts are also shown and analyzed.

Long-term changes and spatio-temporal variability of the growing season temperature in Europe during the last Millennium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guiot, Joel; Corona, Christophe

2010-05-01

A gridded reconstruction of April to September temperature was produced for Europe based on tree-rings, documentaries, pollen and ice cores. The majority of the proxy series have an annual resolution. For a better inference of long-term climate variations, they were completed by number of low resolution data (decadal or more), mostly on pollen and ice-core data. An original spectral analogue method was devised to deal with this heterogeneous dataset, and especially to preserve the long-term variations and the variability of the temperature series. It is the condition is to make pertinent the comparison of the recent climate changes to a broader context of 1400 years. The reconstruction of the April-September temperature was validated with a Jack-knife technique, and it was also compared with other spatially gridded temperature reconstructions, literature data, and glacier advance and retreat curves. We also attempted to relate the spatial distribution of European temperature anomalies to known solar and volcanic forcings. We found that (1) our results are sound back to A.D. 750; (2) conditions during the last decade have exceeded all those known during the last millennium; (3) before the 20th century, cold periods can partly be explained by low solar activity and/or high volcanic activity and that Medieval Warm Period (MWP) is consistent with a high solar activity; (4) during the 20th century, however only anthropogenic forcing can explain the exceptionally high temperature rise; (5) based on an analysis of the distribution of extreme temperatures, the maximum event of the Medieval Period (1.1°C higher than the 1960-1990 reference period) had a return period of more than 1000 years, but this recently fell to less than 26 years; (6) all decades before AD 1350 were warm on average but relatively heterogeneous, while the last decade was homogeneously warmer. These results support the fact that we are facing an unprecedented changing climate in Europe unlike any known in the last 1000 years, as pointed out previously. The new result is that this anthropogenic change is characterised by spatial homogeneity and changes as well in average temperatures than in distribution of extreme events, while natural climate forcings induce warm periods with heterogeneous spatial patterns and less frequent extreme events. This study demonstrates that recent changes in temperature differ substantially from temperature changes reconstructed in the past and are well in excess of normal variations experienced in previous centuries and caused by natural forcings.

Spatial clustering and meteorological drivers of summer ozone in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carro-Calvo, Leopoldo; Ordóñez, Carlos; García-Herrera, Ricardo; Schnell, Jordan L.

2017-10-01

We have applied the k-means clustering technique on a maximum daily 8-h running average near-surface ozone (MDA8 O3) gridded dataset over Europe at 1° × 1° resolution for summer 1998-2012. This has resulted in a spatial division of nine regions where ozone presents coherent spatiotemporal patterns. The role of meteorology in the variability of ozone at different time scales has been investigated by using daily meteorological fields from the NCEP-NCAR meteorological reanalysis. In the five regions of central-southern Europe ozone extremes (exceedances of the summer 95th percentile) occur mostly under anticyclonic circulation or weak sea level pressure gradients which trigger elevated temperatures and the recirculation of air masses. In the four northern regions extremes are associated with high-latitude anticyclones that divert the typical westerly flow at those latitudes and cause the advection of aged air masses from the south. The impact of meteorology on the day-to-day variability of ozone has been assessed by means of two different types of multiple linear models. These include as predictors meteorological fields averaged within the regions (;region-based; approach) or synoptic indices indicating the degree of resemblance between the daily meteorological fields over a large domain (25°-70° N, 35° W - 35° E) and their corresponding composites for extreme ozone days (;index-based; approach). With the first approach, a reduced set of variables, always including daily maximum temperature within the region, explains 47-66% of the variability (adjusted R2) in central-southern Europe, while more complex models are needed to explain 27-49% of the variability in the northern regions. The index-based approach yields better results for the regions of northern Europe, with adjusted R2 = 40-57%. Finally, both methodologies have also been applied to reproduce the interannual variability of ozone, with the best models explaining 66-88% of the variance in central-southern Europe and 45-66% in the north. Thus, the regionalisation carried out in this work has allowed establishing clear distinctions between the meteorological drivers of ozone in northern Europe and in the rest of the continent. These drivers are consistent across the different time scales examined (extremes, day-to-day and interannual), which gives confidence in the robustness of the results.

Surface/interface effects on high-performance thin-film all-solid-state Li-ion batteries

DOE PAGES

Gong, Chen; Ruzmetov, Dmitry; Pearse, Alexander; ...

2015-10-05

The further development of all-solid-state batteries is still limited by the understanding/engineering of the interfaces formed upon cycling. Here, we correlate the morphological, chemical, and electrical changes of the surface of thin-film devices with Al negative electrodes. The stable Al–Li–O alloy formed at the stress-free surface of the electrode causes rapid capacity fade, from 48.0 to 41.5 μAh/cm 2 in two cycles. Surprisingly, the addition of a Cu capping layer is insufficient to prevent the device degradation. Furthermore, Si electrodes present extremely stable cycling, maintaining >92% of its capacity after 100 cycles, with average Coulombic efficiency of 98%.

Icing Conditions Over Northern Eurasia in Changing Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bulygina, O.; Arzhanova, N.; Groisman, P. Y.

2013-12-01

A general increase in atmospheric humidity is expected with global warming, projected with GCMs, reported with remote sensing and in situ observations (Trenberth et al. 2005; Dessler, and Davis 2010; IPCC 2007, Zhang et al. 2012.) In the Arctic this increase has been and will be especially prominent triggered by the dramatic retreat of the sea ice. In the warm season this retreat provides an abundant water vapor supply to the dry Arctic atmosphere. The contemporary sea ice changes are especially visible in the Eastern Hemisphere and after the two extremely anomalous low-ice years (2007 and 2012) it is right time to look for the impact of these changes in the high latitudinal hydrological cycle: first of all in the atmospheric humidity and precipitation changes. Usually, humidity (unless extremely high or low) does not critically affect the human activities and life style. However, in the high latitudes this characteristic has an additional facet: higher humidity causes higher ice condensation from the air (icing and hoar frost) on the infrastructure and transports in the absence of precipitation. The hoar frost and icing (in Russian: gololed) are measured at the Russian meteorological network and reports of icing of the wires are quantitative measurements. While hoar frost can be considered as a minor annoyance, icing may have important societal repercussions. In the Arctic icing occurs mostly during relatively warm months when atmosphere holds maximum amount of water vapor (and is projected to have more). Freezing rain and drizzle contribute to gololed formation and thus this variable (being above some thresholds) presents an important characteristic that can affect the infrastructure (communication lines elevated at the telegraph poles, antennas, etc.), became a Socially-Important climatic Variable (SIV). The former USSR observational program includes gololed among the documented weather phenomena and this allowed RIHMI to create Electronic Reference Book on Climate of the Russian Federation for the national territory. This Reference Book addresses the current state of these weather phenomena. However, the ongoing and projected humidity changes in the high latitudes will strongly affect the circum-polar area (land and ocean) and impact the frequency and intensity of these potentially dangerous weather phenomena across the entire extratropical land area. Therefore the goal of the present study is to quantify icing conditions over the northern Eurasia. Our analysis includes data of 958 Russian stations from 1977 to 2012. Regional analysis of gololed characteristics was carried out using quasi-homogeneous climatic regions. Maps (climatology, trends) are presented mostly for visualization purposes. The area-averaging technique using station values converted to anomalies with respect to a common reference period (in this study, from 1977 to 2012). Anomalies were arithmetically averaged first within 1N x 2E grid cells and thereafter by a weighted average value derived over the quasi-homogeneous climatic regions. This approach provides a more uniform spatial field for averaging.

Wind data for wind driven plant. [site selection for optimal performance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stodhart, A. H.

1973-01-01

Simple, averaged wind velocity data provide information on energy availability, facilitate generator site selection and enable appropriate operating ranges to be established for windpowered plants. They also provide a basis for the prediction of extreme wind speeds.

Drought on the Altiplano of Bolivia and Peru: Climate, Paleoclimate, and Society

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baker, P. A.; Fritz, S. C.; Rigsby, C. A.; Li, L.; Capriles, J. M.

2016-12-01

We examine for the first time the economic, social and political consequences of an extreme drought on the Altiplano that persisted from 1935 to 1945, a period of substantial regional social upheaval. We also examine drought in relation to a pre-historic period of great conflict on the Altiplano during the Late Intermediate Period (ca. AD 1000-1450) (Arkush and Tung, 2013). The level of Lake Titicaca has been measured continuously since 1915. The period from 1935 to 1945 was the longest continuously dry period, with falling lake levels, in this record. Prior to 1960 there were few weather stations in the region. Compositing data from three of these stations from the western margin of Lake Titicaca provides a nearly complete precipitation record with values below the long-term annual average observed every year between 1936 and 1947. Here, 1940 was the driest year, far drier than the consequential 1982/3 El Nino drought, with precipitation only 36% of the mean. Farther north at Cuzco, Peru, every year between 1935 and 1944 was at or below the mean. 1938 was the driest year with 38% of the long-term average value of precipitation. The oxygen isotopic composition of the Quelccaya ice cap (Thompson et al., 1984), situated at the northern limit of the Lake Titicaca watershed, is a reliable indicator of regional precipitation amount. Here, d18O values of ice were continuously at or above the mean value (indicating dry conditions) between 1934 and 1944. Taken together, these four records indicate below-average precipitation at all sites in the region for ten consecutive years, 1935-1944. This extreme drought of the last century was just one manifestation of the highly significant (at the 99.8% confidence level) climate variability that has persisted for at least the past 500 years (Melice and Roucou, 1998). This variability is coherent during the instrumental period with tropical North Atlantic SST.

Coordination Polymerization of Renewable 3-Methylenecyclopentene with Rare-Earth-Metal Precursors.

PubMed

Liu, Bo; Li, Shihui; Wang, Meiyan; Cui, Dongmei

2017-04-10

Coordination polymerization of renewable 3-methylenecyclopentene has been investigated for the first time using rare-earth metal-based precursors bearing various bulky ligands. All the prepared complexes catalyze controllable polymerization of 3-methylenecyclopentene into high molecular weight polymers, of which the NPN- and NSN-tridentate non-Cp ligated lutetium-based catalytic systems exhibited extremely high activities up to 11 520 kg/(mol Lu ⋅h) in a dilute toluene solution (3.2 g/100 mL) at room temperature. The resultant polymers have pure 1,4-regioregularity (>99 %) and tailorable number average molecular weights (1-20×10 4 ) with narrow molecular weight distributions (polydispersity index (PDI)=1.45-1.79). DFT simulations were employed to study the polymerization mechanism and stereoregularity control. © 2017 Wiley-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Association of extremely high levels of high-density lipoprotein cholesterol with cardiovascular mortality in a pooled analysis of 9 cohort studies including 43,407 individuals: The EPOCH-JAPAN study.

PubMed

Hirata, Aya; Sugiyama, Daisuke; Watanabe, Makoto; Tamakoshi, Akiko; Iso, Hiroyasu; Kotani, Kazuhiko; Kiyama, Masahiko; Yamada, Michiko; Ishikawa, Shizukiyo; Murakami, Yoshitaka; Miura, Katsuyuki; Ueshima, Hirotsugu; Okamura, Tomonori

2018-02-08

The effect of very high or extremely high levels of high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) on cardiovascular disease (CVD) is not well described. Although a few recent studies have reported the adverse effects of extremely high levels of HDL-C on CVD events, these did not show a statistically significant association between extremely high levels of HDL-C and cause-specific CVD mortality. In addition, Asian populations have not been studied. We examine the impact of extremely high levels of HDL-C on cause-specific CVD mortality using pooled data of Japanese cohort studies. We performed a large-scale pooled analysis of 9 Japanese cohorts including 43,407 participants aged 40-89 years, dividing the participants into 5 groups by HDL-C levels, including extremely high levels of HDL-C ≥2.33 mmol/L (≥90 mg/dL). We estimated the adjusted hazard ratio of each HDL-C category for all-cause death and cause-specific deaths compared with HDL-C 1.04-1.55 mmol/L (40-59 mg/dL) using a cohort-stratified Cox proportional hazards model. During a 12.1-year follow-up, 4995 all-cause deaths and 1280 deaths due to overall CVD were identified. Extremely high levels of HDL-C were significantly associated with increased risk of atherosclerotic CVD mortality (hazard ratio = 2.37, 95% confidence interval: 1.37-4.09 for total) and increased risk for coronary heart disease and ischemic stroke. In addition, the risk for extremely high HDL-C was more evident among current drinkers. We showed extremely high levels of HDL-C had an adverse effect on atherosclerotic CVD mortality in a pooled analysis of Japanese cohorts. Copyright © 2018 National Lipid Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Upper extremity sensory feedback therapy in chronic cerebrovascular accident patients with impaired expressive aphasia and auditory comprehension.

PubMed

Balliet, R; Levy, B; Blood, K M

1986-05-01

Electromyographic (EMG) sensory feedback therapy (SFT) was used in the neuromuscular retraining of the nonfunctional upper extremity in five chronic left cerebrovascular accident (CVA) patients with impaired expressive and auditory comprehension. Speech diagnoses included global, moderate-to-severe Broca, and Wernicke aphasias. These patients had experienced increased despondency associated with previous therapy failures and often had indicated that they wished to have their involved extremity amputated, so that it would no longer be in the way. In this study, specific behavioral training strategies to increase patient involvement were used, including: general relaxation, modified SFT instruction, and home exercises, which were supported by family and/or friends. After an average of 50 therapy sessions, all patients were successfully retrained to use their right upper extremity at the gross-assist level. This resulted in feelings of increased self-esteem to the extent that amputation was no longer requested. It is concluded that EMG SFT can be beneficial in the neuromuscular reeducation of paretic upper extremity muscles of CVA patients with expressive aphasia and (impaired) auditory comprehension.

Use of Ovine-based Collagen Extracellular Matrix and Gentian Violet/Methylene Blue Antibacterial Foam Dressings to Help Improve Clinical Outcomes in Lower Extremity Wounds: A Retrospective Cohort Study.

PubMed

Lullove, Eric J

2017-04-01

Dressings that provide broad spectrum metalloprotease reduction along with inherent aspects of an extracellular matrix may contribute to improved wound healing outcomes and shorter treatment times. The author performed a retrospective case series analysis to determine the clinical outcomes of regular debridement with the use of ovine-based collagen extracellular matrix dressings and gentian violet/methylene blue polyurethane antibacterial foam dressings in treating 53 patients with 53 chronic lower extremity wounds (diabetic foot ulcers [DFUs], venous leg ulcers, and heel pressure ulcers). Patients were treated twice weekly in an outpatient clinic for the first 4 weeks and weekly thereafter until closure. Average body mass index (BMI) for the study population was 28.3, and the average patient age was 75.9 years. Mean percent wound surface area reduction at 4, 8, and 12 weeks was 38.5%, 73.3%, and 91.3%, respectively. Average time to closure for all wounds was 10.6 weeks (range, 5-24 weeks). All wounds were 100% reepithelialized by week 20 except 1 DFU that reepithelialized at week 24. The average cost of care for a single wound episode (from presentation to closure) was $2749.49. Results of this analysis showed that the healing of chronic wounds in this series could be achieved at a reasonable cost with regular debridement and a collagen matrix dressing regimen, even in patients of advanced age and above average BMI as well as in wounds that did not achieve > 40% wound surface area reduction at 4 weeks.

High-precision laser microcutting and laser microdrilling using diffractive beam-splitting and high-precision flexible beam alignment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zibner, F.; Fornaroli, C.; Holtkamp, J.; Shachaf, Lior; Kaplan, Natan; Gillner, A.

2017-08-01

High-precision laser micro machining gains more importance in industrial applications every month. Optical systems like the helical optics offer highest quality together with controllable and adjustable drilling geometry, thus as taper angle, aspect ratio and heat effected zone. The helical optics is based on a rotating Dove-prism which is mounted in a hollow shaft engine together with other optical elements like wedge prisms and plane plates. Although the achieved quality can be interpreted as extremely high the low process efficiency is a main reason that this manufacturing technology has only limited demand within the industrial market. The objective of the research studies presented in this paper is to dramatically increase process efficiency as well as process flexibility. During the last years, the average power of commercial ultra-short pulsed laser sources has increased significantly. The efficient utilization of the high average laser power in the field of material processing requires an effective distribution of the laser power onto the work piece. One approach to increase the efficiency is the application of beam splitting devices to enable parallel processing. Multi beam processing is used to parallelize the fabrication of periodic structures as most application only require a partial amount of the emitted ultra-short pulsed laser power. In order to achieve highest flexibility while using multi beam processing the single beams are diverted and re-guided in a way that enables the opportunity to process with each partial beam on locally apart probes or semimanufactures.

Fluorometric prediction of successful amputation level in the ischemic limb.

PubMed

Silverman, D G; Rubin, S M; Reilly, C A; Brousseau, D A; Norton, K J; Wolf, G L

1985-01-01

The present study was undertaken to compare fluorometric documentation of fluorescein dye delivery with the standard means of determining the level at which an amputation should be performed in the dysvascular extremity. Thirty-nine patients underwent lower-extremity amputation at the level determined by the surgeon based upon physical examination, angiography, segmental pressure indices, and/or pulse volume recordings. In addition, fiberoptic fluorometry was performed preoperatively. After intravenous administration of sodium fluorescein (4-8 mg/kg), fluorometric readings were obtained by placing the fluorometer's light guide on 126 reading sites. Fluorometric findings were evaluated retrospectively, and therefore did not influence the surgeon's decision. Of the 39 amputations performed overall, only 26 healed. The accuracy of the standard criteria was lowest for the 20 below-ankle amputations, where only 12 cases healed. Alternatively, fluorometric indices separated healing from nonhealing sites in 36 of the 39 cases and in 18 of the 20 below-ankle amputations. Overall, healing sites averaged 94 percent of the fluorescence of the healthy reference area, while nonhealing sites averaged only 29 percent. We conclude that fluorometry should prove to be a valuable adjunct in the assessment of the dysvascular extremity. It uses a low dose of dye, is easy to perform, and is readily repeatable.

Early experience and results of bone graft enriched with autologous platelet gel for recalcitrant nonunions of lower extremity.

PubMed

Chiang, Chao-Ching; Su, Chen-Yao; Huang, Ching-Kuei; Chen, Wei-Ming; Chen, Tain-Hsiung; Tzeng, Yun-Hsuan

2007-09-01

Refractory nonunions of the tibia or femur are physically and mentally devastating conditions for the patients, and the treatment is challenging for orthopedic surgeons. The goal of this study was to assess the feasibility and outcome of surgical treatment in recalcitrant nonunions of a lower extremity with bone graft enriched with autologous platelet gel (APG). Twelve patients with four femoral and eight tibial atrophic nonunions after multiple prior procedures were included. All of them were treated with the bone grafting procedures with autograft complex enriched with APG. They were evaluated with radiographs, bone mineral density for bony healing process, and the Short-Form 36 Health Survey for functional outcome. Of the 12 patients, 11 healed at an average of 19.7 weeks after the first attempt and 1 healed after the second attempt at 21 weeks. The bone mineral density continued to increase steadily from early healing to the remodeling phase. Functional status was greatly improved at an average follow-up of 32.4 months. The results of this preliminary study implied the possible potential of bone graft enriched with APG in the treatment of recalcitrant nonunions of the lower extremity. More research is necessary to clarify its role in augmentation of bone graft to enhance healing of nonunion.

High-severity fire: evaluating its key drivers and mapping its probability across western US forests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parks, Sean A.; Holsinger, Lisa M.; Panunto, Matthew H.; Jolly, W. Matt; Dobrowski, Solomon Z.; Dillon, Gregory K.

2018-04-01

Wildland fire is a critical process in forests of the western United States (US). Variation in fire behavior, which is heavily influenced by fuel loading, terrain, weather, and vegetation type, leads to heterogeneity in fire severity across landscapes. The relative influence of these factors in driving fire severity, however, is poorly understood. Here, we explore the drivers of high-severity fire for forested ecoregions in the western US over the period 2002–2015. Fire severity was quantified using a satellite-inferred index of severity, the relativized burn ratio. For each ecoregion, we used boosted regression trees to model high-severity fire as a function of live fuel, topography, climate, and fire weather. We found that live fuel, on average, was the most important factor driving high-severity fire among ecoregions (average relative influence = 53.1%) and was the most important factor in 14 of 19 ecoregions. Fire weather was the second most important factor among ecoregions (average relative influence = 22.9%) and was the most important factor in five ecoregions. Climate (13.7%) and topography (10.3%) were less influential. We also predicted the probability of high-severity fire, were a fire to occur, using recent (2016) satellite imagery to characterize live fuel for a subset of ecoregions in which the model skill was deemed acceptable (n = 13). These ‘wall-to-wall’ gridded ecoregional maps provide relevant and up-to-date information for scientists and managers who are tasked with managing fuel and wildland fire. Lastly, we provide an example of the predicted likelihood of high-severity fire under moderate and extreme fire weather before and after fuel reduction treatments, thereby demonstrating how our framework and model predictions can potentially serve as a performance metric for land management agencies tasked with reducing hazardous fuel across large landscapes.

High mortality of Red Sea zooplankton under ambient solar radiation.

PubMed

Al-Aidaroos, Ali M; El-Sherbiny, Mohsen M O; Satheesh, Sathianeson; Mantha, Gopikrishna; Agustī, Susana; Carreja, Beatriz; Duarte, Carlos M

2014-01-01

High solar radiation along with extreme transparency leads to high penetration of solar radiation in the Red Sea, potentially harmful to biota inhabiting the upper water column, including zooplankton. Here we show, based on experimental assessments of solar radiation dose-mortality curves on eight common taxa, the mortality of zooplankton in the oligotrophic waters of the Red Sea to increase steeply with ambient levels of solar radiation in the Red Sea. Responses curves linking solar radiation doses with zooplankton mortality were evaluated by exposing organisms, enclosed in quartz bottles, allowing all the wavelengths of solar radiation to penetrate, to five different levels of ambient solar radiation (100%, 21.6%, 7.2%, 3.2% and 0% of solar radiation). The maximum mortality rates under ambient solar radiation levels averaged (±standard error of the mean, SEM) 18.4±5.8% h(-1), five-fold greater than the average mortality in the dark for the eight taxa tested. The UV-B radiation required for mortality rates to reach ½ of maximum values averaged (±SEM) 12±5.6 h(-1)% of incident UVB radiation, equivalent to the UV-B dose at 19.2±2.7 m depth in open coastal Red Sea waters. These results confirm that Red Sea zooplankton are highly vulnerable to ambient solar radiation, as a consequence of the combination of high incident radiation and high water transparency allowing deep penetration of damaging UV-B radiation. These results provide evidence of the significance of ambient solar radiation levels as a stressor of marine zooplankton communities in tropical, oligotrophic waters. Because the oligotrophic ocean extends across 70% of the ocean surface, solar radiation can be a globally-significant stressor for the ocean ecosystem, by constraining zooplankton use of the upper levels of the water column and, therefore, the efficiency of food transfer up the food web in the oligotrophic ocean.

Ruthenium Oxide Electrochemical Super Capacitor Optimization for Pulse Power Applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Merryman, Stephen A.; Chen, Zheng

2000-01-01

Electrical actuator systems are being pursued as alternatives to hydraulic systems to reduce maintenance time, weight and costs while increasing reliability. Additionally, safety and environmental hazards associated with the hydraulic fluids can be eliminated. For most actuation systems, the actuation process is typically pulsed with high peak power requirements but with relatively modest average power levels. The power-time requirements for electrical actuators are characteristic of pulsed power technologies where the source can be sized for the average power levels while providing the capability to achieve the peak requirements. Among the options for the power source are battery systems, capacitor systems or battery-capacitor hybrid systems. Battery technologies are energy dense but deficient in power density; capacitor technologies are power dense but limited by energy density. The battery-capacitor hybrid system uses the battery to supply the average power and the capacitor to meet the peak demands. It has been demonstrated in previous work that the hybrid electrical power source can potentially provide a weight savings of approximately 59% over a battery-only source. Electrochemical capacitors have many properties that make them well-suited for electrical actuator applications. They have the highest demonstrated energy density for capacitive storage (up to 100 J/g), have power densities much greater than most battery technologies (greater than 30kW/kg), are capable of greater than one million charge-discharge cycles, can be charged at extremely high rates, and have non-explosive failure modes. Thus, electrochemical capacitors exhibit a combination of desirable battery and capacitor characteristics.

Effects of ignition location models on the burn patterns of simulated wildfires

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bar-Massada, A.; Syphard, A.D.; Hawbaker, T.J.; Stewart, S.I.; Radeloff, V.C.

2011-01-01

Fire simulation studies that use models such as FARSITE often assume that ignition locations are distributed randomly, because spatially explicit information about actual ignition locations are difficult to obtain. However, many studies show that the spatial distribution of ignition locations, whether human-caused or natural, is non-random. Thus, predictions from fire simulations based on random ignitions may be unrealistic. However, the extent to which the assumption of ignition location affects the predictions of fire simulation models has never been systematically explored. Our goal was to assess the difference in fire simulations that are based on random versus non-random ignition location patterns. We conducted four sets of 6000 FARSITE simulations for the Santa Monica Mountains in California to quantify the influence of random and non-random ignition locations and normal and extreme weather conditions on fire size distributions and spatial patterns of burn probability. Under extreme weather conditions, fires were significantly larger for non-random ignitions compared to random ignitions (mean area of 344.5 ha and 230.1 ha, respectively), but burn probability maps were highly correlated (r = 0.83). Under normal weather, random ignitions produced significantly larger fires than non-random ignitions (17.5 ha and 13.3 ha, respectively), and the spatial correlations between burn probability maps were not high (r = 0.54), though the difference in the average burn probability was small. The results of the study suggest that the location of ignitions used in fire simulation models may substantially influence the spatial predictions of fire spread patterns. However, the spatial bias introduced by using a random ignition location model may be minimized if the fire simulations are conducted under extreme weather conditions when fire spread is greatest. ?? 2010 Elsevier Ltd.

Parenting in emerging adulthood: an examination of parenting clusters and correlates.

PubMed

Nelson, Larry J; Padilla-Walker, Laura M; Christensen, Katherine J; Evans, Cortney A; Carroll, Jason S

2011-06-01

The changing nature of the transition to adulthood in western societies, such as the United States, may be extending the length of time parents are engaged in "parenting" activities. However, little is known about different approaches parents take in their interactions with their emerging-adult children. Hence, this study attempted to identify different clusters of parents based on the extent to which they exhibited both extremes of control (psychological control, punishment, verbal hostility, indulgence) and responsiveness (knowledge, warmth, induction, autonomy granting), and to examine how combinations of parenting were related to emerging adult children's relational and individual outcomes (e.g. parent-child relationship quality, drinking, self-worth, depression). The data were collected from 403 emerging adults (M age = 19.89, SD = 1.78, range = 18-26, 62% female) and at least one of their parents (287 fathers and 317 mothers). Eighty-four percent of participants reported being European American, 6% Asian American, 4% African American, 3% Latino, and 4% reported being of other ethnicities. Data were analyzed using hierarchical cluster analysis, separately for mothers and fathers, and identified three similar clusters of parents which we labeled as uninvolved (low on all aspects of parenting), controlling-indulgent (high on both extremes of control and low on all aspects of responsiveness), and authoritative (high on responsiveness and low on control). A fourth cluster was identified for both mothers and fathers and was labeled as inconsistent for mothers (mothers were above the mean on both extremes of control and on responsiveness) and average for fathers (fathers were at the mean on all eight aspects of parenting). The discussion focuses on how each of these clusters effectively distinguished between child outcomes.

Individual Traits, Personal Values, and Conflict Resolution in an Isolated, Confined, Extreme Environment.

PubMed

Corneliussen, Jesper G; Leon, Gloria R; Kjærgaard, Anders; Fink, Birgit A; Venables, Noah C

2017-06-01

The study of personality traits, personal values, and the emergence of conflicts within groups performing in an isolated, confined, and extreme environment (ICE) may provide insights helpful for the composition and support of space crews for long duration missions. Studied pre/post and over the 2-yr period of the investigation were 10 Danish military personnel deployed to stations in Greenland on a 26-mo staggered rotation. Subjects completed the NEO PI-R, Triarchic Psychopathy Measure, and Portrait Values Questionnaire, and participated in structured interviews. During deployment, questionnaires were completed biweekly and a cognitive function test once a month. Personality findings indicated a generally well-adjusted group, above average in positive personality traits [Conscientiousness T-score = 59.4 (11.41); Agreeableness T-score = 54.4 (9.36)] and boldness. Personal values of benevolence and self-direction were highly rated. The decision when to "pick sides" and intervene during disagreements between group members was viewed as an important component of conflict resolution. There were no changes in positive/negative affect or cognitive function over the annual light/dark cycle. The personal values of group members appear highly compatible for living in a small group ICE environment for an extended period. Disagreements between group members impact the functioning of the entire group, particularly in regard to decisions whether to support one of the individuals or let the argument run its course. Extended training in strategies for conflict resolution are needed in planning for future long duration missions to avoid fault lines forming within the group.Corneliussen JG, Leon GR, Kjærgaard A, Fink BA, Venables NC. Individual traits, personal values, and conflict resolution in an isolated, confined, extreme environment. Aerosp Med Hum Perform. 2017; 88(6):535-543.

Analysis of Terrestrial Water Storage Changes from GRACE and GLDAS

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Syed, Tajdarul H.; Famiglietti, James S.; Rodell, Matthew; Chen, Jianli; Wilson, Clark R.

2008-01-01

Since March 2002, the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) has provided first estimates of land water storage variations by monitoring the time-variable component of Earth's gravity field. Here we characterize spatial-temporal variations in terrestrial water storage changes (TWSC) from GRACE and compare them to those simulated with the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS). Additionally, we use GLDAS simulations to infer how TWSC is partitioned into snow, canopy water and soil water components, and to understand how variations in the hydrologic fluxes act to enhance or dissipate the stores. Results quantify the range of GRACE-derived storage changes during the studied period and place them in the context of seasonal variations in global climate and hydrologic extremes including drought and flood, by impacting land memory processes. The role of the largest continental river basins as major locations for freshwater redistribution is highlighted. GRACE-based storage changes are in good agreement with those obtained from GLDAS simulations. Analysis of GLDAS-simulated TWSC illustrates several key characteristics of spatial and temporal land water storage variations. Global averages of TWSC were partitioned nearly equally between soil moisture and snow water equivalent, while zonal averages of TWSC revealed the importance of soil moisture storage at low latitudes and snow storage at high latitudes. Evapotranspiration plays a key role in dissipating globally averaged terrestrial water storage. Latitudinal averages showed how precipitation dominates TWSC variations in the tropics, evapotranspiration is most effective in the midlatitudes, and snowmelt runoff is a key dissipating flux at high latitudes. Results have implications for monitoring water storage response to climate variability and change, and for constraining land model hydrology simulations.

Extreme events of perceived temperature over Europe: a projected northward extension of dangerous areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scoccimarro, Enrico; Fogli, Pier Giuseppe; Gualdi, Silvio

2017-04-01

It is well known that an increase of temperature over Europe, both in terms of averages and extremes, is expected within the current century. In order to consider health impacts under warm conditions, it is important to take into account the combined effect of temperature and humidity on the human body. To this aim a basic index - the humindex - representative of the perceived temperature, under different scenarios and periods, has been investigated in this study. A very low concomitance of extreme temperature events and extreme humindex events is found over the present climate, reinforcing the importance to investigate not only extreme temperature and relative humidity future projections but also the combination of the two parameters. A set of 10-km resolution regional climate simulations provided within the EUR-11 EURO-CORDEX multi-model effort, demonstrates ability in representing the intense and extreme events of the humindex over the present climate and to be eligible as a tool to quantify future changes in geographical patterns of exposed areas over Europe. An enlargement of the domain subject to dangerous conditions is found since the middle of the current century, reaching 60 degrees North when considering really extreme events. The most significant increase in humindex extreme events is found when comparing the 2066-2095 projections under rcp8.5 scenario, to the 1966-2005 period: bearing in mind that changes in relative humidity may either amplify or offset the health effects of temperature extremes, a less pronounced projected reduction of relative humidity intensity in the Northern part of the European domain, associated to extreme temperature and humindex, makes Northern Europe the most prone region to a local increase of the humindex extremes.

Computational methods using weighed-extreme learning machine to predict protein self-interactions with protein evolutionary information.

PubMed

An, Ji-Yong; Zhang, Lei; Zhou, Yong; Zhao, Yu-Jun; Wang, Da-Fu

2017-08-18

Self-interactions Proteins (SIPs) is important for their biological activity owing to the inherent interaction amongst their secondary structures or domains. However, due to the limitations of experimental Self-interactions detection, one major challenge in the study of prediction SIPs is how to exploit computational approaches for SIPs detection based on evolutionary information contained protein sequence. In the work, we presented a novel computational approach named WELM-LAG, which combined the Weighed-Extreme Learning Machine (WELM) classifier with Local Average Group (LAG) to predict SIPs based on protein sequence. The major improvement of our method lies in presenting an effective feature extraction method used to represent candidate Self-interactions proteins by exploring the evolutionary information embedded in PSI-BLAST-constructed position specific scoring matrix (PSSM); and then employing a reliable and robust WELM classifier to carry out classification. In addition, the Principal Component Analysis (PCA) approach is used to reduce the impact of noise. The WELM-LAG method gave very high average accuracies of 92.94 and 96.74% on yeast and human datasets, respectively. Meanwhile, we compared it with the state-of-the-art support vector machine (SVM) classifier and other existing methods on human and yeast datasets, respectively. Comparative results indicated that our approach is very promising and may provide a cost-effective alternative for predicting SIPs. In addition, we developed a freely available web server called WELM-LAG-SIPs to predict SIPs. The web server is available at http://219.219.62.123:8888/WELMLAG/ .

The balance between adaptation to catalysts and competition radius shapes the total wealth, time variability and inequality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davidovich, Hadar; Louzoun, Yoram

2013-05-01

The globalization of modern markets has led to the emergence of competition between producers in ever growing distances. This opens the interesting question in population dynamics of the effect of long-range competition. We here study a model of non-local competition to test the effect of the competition radius on the wealth distribution, using the framework of a stochastic birth-death process, with non-local interactions. We show that this model leads to non-trivial dynamics that can have implications in other domains of physics. Competition is studied in the context of the catalyst induced growth of autocatalytic agents, representing the growth of capital in the presence of investment opportunities. These agents are competing with all other agents in a given radius on growth possibilities. We show that a large scale competition leads to an extreme localization of the agents, where typically a single aggregate of agents can survive within a given competition radius. The survival of these aggregates is determined by the diffusion rates of the agents and the catalysts. For high and low agent diffusion rates, the agent population is always annihilated, while for intermediate diffusion rates, a finite agent population persists. Increasing the catalyst diffusion rate always leads to a decrease in the average agent population density. The extreme localization of the agents leads to the emergence of intermittent fluctuations, when a large aggregate of agents disappear. As the competition radius increases, so does the average agent density and its spatial variance as well as the volatility.

Optimal habits can develop spontaneously through sensitivity to local cost

PubMed Central

Desrochers, Theresa M.; Jin, Dezhe Z.; Goodman, Noah D.; Graybiel, Ann M.

2010-01-01

Habits and rituals are expressed universally across animal species. These behaviors are advantageous in allowing sequential behaviors to be performed without cognitive overload, and appear to rely on neural circuits that are relatively benign but vulnerable to takeover by extreme contexts, neuropsychiatric sequelae, and processes leading to addiction. Reinforcement learning (RL) is thought to underlie the formation of optimal habits. However, this theoretic formulation has principally been tested experimentally in simple stimulus-response tasks with relatively few available responses. We asked whether RL could also account for the emergence of habitual action sequences in realistically complex situations in which no repetitive stimulus-response links were present and in which many response options were present. We exposed naïve macaque monkeys to such experimental conditions by introducing a unique free saccade scan task. Despite the highly uncertain conditions and no instruction, the monkeys developed a succession of stereotypical, self-chosen saccade sequence patterns. Remarkably, these continued to morph for months, long after session-averaged reward and cost (eye movement distance) reached asymptote. Prima facie, these continued behavioral changes appeared to challenge RL. However, trial-by-trial analysis showed that pattern changes on adjacent trials were predicted by lowered cost, and RL simulations that reduced the cost reproduced the monkeys’ behavior. Ultimately, the patterns settled into stereotypical saccade sequences that minimized the cost of obtaining the reward on average. These findings suggest that brain mechanisms underlying the emergence of habits, and perhaps unwanted repetitive behaviors in clinical disorders, could follow RL algorithms capturing extremely local explore/exploit tradeoffs. PMID:20974967

High-speed ultrafast laser machining with tertiary beam positioning (Conference Presentation)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Chuan; Zhang, Haibin

2017-03-01

For an industrial laser application, high process throughput and low average cost of ownership are critical to commercial success. Benefiting from high peak power, nonlinear absorption and small-achievable spot size, ultrafast lasers offer advantages of minimal heat affected zone, great taper and sidewall quality, and small via capability that exceeds the limits of their predecessors in via drilling for electronic packaging. In the past decade, ultrafast lasers have both grown in power and reduced in cost. For example, recently, disk and fiber technology have both shown stable operation in the 50W to 200W range, mostly at high repetition rate (beyond 500 kHz) that helps avoid detrimental nonlinear effects. However, to effectively and efficiently scale the throughput with the fast-growing power capability of the ultrafast lasers while keeping the beneficial laser-material interactions is very challenging, mainly because of the bottleneck imposed by the inertia-related acceleration limit and servo gain bandwidth when only stages and galvanometers are being used. On the other side, inertia-free scanning solutions like acoustic optics and electronic optical deflectors have small scan field, and therefore not suitable for large-panel processing. Our recent system developments combine stages, galvanometers, and AODs into a coordinated tertiary architecture for high bandwidth and meanwhile large field beam positioning. Synchronized three-level movements allow extremely fast local speed and continuous motion over the whole stage travel range. We present the via drilling results from such ultrafast system with up to 3MHz pulse to pulse random access, enabling high quality low cost ultrafast machining with emerging high average power laser sources.

Temporal associations between affective instability and dysregulated eating behavior in bulimia nervosa.

PubMed

Berner, Laura A; Crosby, Ross D; Cao, Li; Engel, Scott G; Lavender, Jason M; Mitchell, James E; Wonderlich, Stephen A

2017-09-01

Prior research suggests that the construct of emotional instability may be salient to bulimia nervosa (BN), but no study to date has used ecological momentary assessment (EMA) to examine its temporal association with binge eating and purging. In the current study, 133 women with DSM-IV BN used portable digital devices to provide multiple daily negative affect (NA) and positive affect (PA) ratings and record eating disorder behaviors over 2 weeks. Two state-of-the art indices quantified affective instability: probability of acute change (PAC), which represents the likelihood of extreme affective increases, and mean squared successive difference (MSSD), which represents average change over successive recordings. For extreme affective change, results revealed that on bulimic behavior days, extreme NA increases were less likely after bulimic behaviors than before them, and extreme increases in PA were more likely after bulimic behaviors than during the same time period on non-bulimic behavior days. However, average NA instability (i.e., MSSD) was (a) greater on bulimic behavior days than non-bulimic behavior days, (b) greater after bulimic behaviors than during the same time period on non-bulimic behavior days, and (c) greater after bulimic behaviors than before them. Results lend support to the notion that bulimic behaviors are negatively reinforcing (i.e., via post-behavior acute affective changes), but also indicate that these behaviors may exacerbate overall affective dysregulation. These findings may improve understanding of BN maintenance and inform the development of novel interventions or refinement of existing treatments. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The influence of a rapid drawdown and prolonged dewatering on angling pressure, catch and harvest in a Nebraska reservoir

USGS Publications Warehouse

DeBoer, Jason A.; Webber, Christa M.; Dixon, Taylor A.; Pope, Kevin L.

2015-01-01

Reservoirs can be dynamic systems, often prone to unpredictable and extreme water-level fluctuations, and can be environments where survival is difficult for zooplankton and larval fish. Although numerous studies have examined the effects of extreme reservoir drawdown on water quality, few have examined extreme drawdown on both abiotic and biotic characteristics. A fissure in the dam at Red Willow Reservoir in southwest Nebraska necessitated an extreme drawdown; the water level was lowered more than 6 m during a two-month period, reducing reservoir volume by 76%. During the subsequent low-water period (i.e., post-drawdown), spring sampling (April–June) showed dissolved oxygen concentration was lower, while turbidity and chlorophyll-a concentration were greater, relative to pre-drawdown conditions. Additionally, there was an overall increase in zooplankton density, although there were differences among taxa, and changes in mean size among taxa, relative to pre-drawdown conditions. Zooplankton assemblage composition had an average dissimilarity of 19.3% from pre-drawdown to post-drawdown. The ratio of zero to non-zero catches was greater post-drawdown for larval common carp and for all larval fishes combined, whereas we observed no difference for larval gizzard shad. Larval fish assemblage composition had an average dissimilarity of 39.7% from pre-drawdown to post-drawdown. Given the likelihood that other dams will need repair or replacement in the near future, it is imperative for effective reservoir management that we anticipate the likely abiotic and biotic responses of reservoir ecosystems as these management actions will continue to alter environmental conditions in reservoirs.

The influence of a severe reservoir drawdown on springtime zooplankton and larval fish assemblages in Red Willow Reservoir, Nebraska

USGS Publications Warehouse

DeBoer, Jason A.; Webber, Christa M.; Dixon, Taylor A.; Pope, Kevin L.

2016-01-01

Reservoirs can be dynamic systems, often prone to unpredictable and extreme water-level fluctuations, and can be environments where survival is difficult for zooplankton and larval fish. Although numerous studies have examined the effects of extreme reservoir drawdown on water quality, few have examined extreme drawdown on both abiotic and biotic characteristics. A fissure in the dam at Red Willow Reservoir in southwest Nebraska necessitated an extreme drawdown; the water level was lowered more than 6 m during a two-month period, reducing reservoir volume by 76%. During the subsequent low-water period (i.e., post-drawdown), spring sampling (April–June) showed dissolved oxygen concentration was lower, while turbidity and chlorophyll-a concentration were greater, relative to pre-drawdown conditions. Additionally, there was an overall increase in zooplankton density, although there were differences among taxa, and changes in mean size among taxa, relative to pre-drawdown conditions. Zooplankton assemblage composition had an average dissimilarity of 19.3% from pre-drawdown to post-drawdown. The ratio of zero to non-zero catches was greater post-drawdown for larval common carp and for all larval fishes combined, whereas we observed no difference for larval gizzard shad. Larval fish assemblage composition had an average dissimilarity of 39.7% from pre-drawdown to post-drawdown. Given the likelihood that other dams will need repair or replacement in the near future, it is imperative for effective reservoir management that we anticipate the likely abiotic and biotic responses of reservoir ecosystems as these management actions will continue to alter environmental conditions in reservoirs.

Observed Hydrologic Impacts of Landfalling Atmospheric Rivers in the Salt and Verde River Basins of Arizona, United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Demaria, Eleonora M. C.; Dominguez, Francina; Hu, Huancui; von Glinski, Gerd; Robles, Marcos; Skindlov, Jonathan; Walter, James

2017-12-01

Atmospheric rivers (ARs), narrow atmospheric water vapor corridors, can contribute substantially to winter precipitation in the semiarid Southwest U.S., where natural ecosystems and humans compete for over-allocated water resources. We investigate the hydrologic impacts of 122 ARs that occurred in the Salt and Verde river basins in northeastern Arizona during the cold seasons from 1979 to 2009. We focus on the relationship between precipitation, snow water equivalent (SWE), soil moisture, and extreme flooding. During the cold season (October through March) ARs contribute an average of 25%/29% of total seasonal precipitation for the Salt/Verde river basins, respectively. However, they contribute disproportionately to total heavy precipitation and account for 64%/72% of extreme total daily precipitation (exceeding the 98th percentile). Excess precipitation during AR occurrences contributes to snow accumulation; on the other hand, warmer than normal temperatures during AR landfallings are linked to rain-on-snow processes, an increase in the basins' area contributing to runoff generation, and higher melting lines. Although not all AR events are linked to extreme flooding in the basins, they do account for larger runoff coefficients. On average, ARs generate 43% of the annual maximum flows for the period studied, with 25% of the events exceeding the 10 year return period. Our analysis shows that the devastating 1993 flooding event in the region was caused by AR events. These results illustrate the importance of AR activity on the hydrology of inland semiarid regions: ARs are critical for water resources, but they can also lead to extreme flooding that affects infrastructure and human activities.

On high heels and short muscles: A multiscale model for sarcomere loss in the gastrocnemius muscle

PubMed Central

Zöllner, Alexander M.; Pok, Jacquelynn M.; McWalter, Emily J.; Gold, Garry E.; Kuhl, Ellen

2014-01-01

High heels are a major source of chronic lower limb pain. Yet, more than one third of all women compromise health for looks and wear high heels on a daily basis. Changing from flat footwear to high heels induces chronic muscle shortening associated with discomfort, fatigue, reduced shock absorption, and increased injury risk. However, the long-term effects of high-heeled footwear on the musculoskeletal kinematics of the lower extremities remain poorly understood. Here we create a multiscale computational model for chronic muscle adaptation to characterize the acute and chronic effects of global muscle shortening on local sarcomere lengths. We perform a case study of a healthy female subject and show that raising the heel by 13 cm shortens the gastrocnemius muscle by 5% while the Achilles tendon remains virtually unaffected. Our computational simulation indicates that muscle shortening displays significant regional variations with extreme values of 22% in the central gastrocnemius. Our model suggests that the muscle gradually adjusts to its new functional length by a chronic loss of sarcomeres in series. Sarcomere loss varies significantly across the muscle with an average loss of 9%, virtually no loss at the proximal and distal ends, and a maximum loss of 39% in the central region. These changes reposition the remaining sarcomeres back into their optimal operating regime. Computational modeling of chronic muscle shortening provides a valuable tool to shape our understanding of the underlying mechanisms of muscle adaptation. Our study could open new avenues in orthopedic surgery and enhance treatment for patients with muscle contracture caused by other conditions than high heel wear such as paralysis, muscular atrophy, and muscular dystrophy. PMID:25451524

Lower extremity EMG-driven modeling of walking with automated adjustment of musculoskeletal geometry

PubMed Central

Meyer, Andrew J.; Patten, Carolynn

2017-01-01

Neuromusculoskeletal disorders affecting walking ability are often difficult to manage, in part due to limited understanding of how a patient’s lower extremity muscle excitations contribute to the patient’s lower extremity joint moments. To assist in the study of these disorders, researchers have developed electromyography (EMG) driven neuromusculoskeletal models utilizing scaled generic musculoskeletal geometry. While these models can predict individual muscle contributions to lower extremity joint moments during walking, the accuracy of the predictions can be hindered by errors in the scaled geometry. This study presents a novel EMG-driven modeling method that automatically adjusts surrogate representations of the patient’s musculoskeletal geometry to improve prediction of lower extremity joint moments during walking. In addition to commonly adjusted neuromusculoskeletal model parameters, the proposed method adjusts model parameters defining muscle-tendon lengths, velocities, and moment arms. We evaluated our EMG-driven modeling method using data collected from a high-functioning hemiparetic subject walking on an instrumented treadmill at speeds ranging from 0.4 to 0.8 m/s. EMG-driven model parameter values were calibrated to match inverse dynamic moments for five degrees of freedom in each leg while keeping musculoskeletal geometry close to that of an initial scaled musculoskeletal model. We found that our EMG-driven modeling method incorporating automated adjustment of musculoskeletal geometry predicted net joint moments during walking more accurately than did the same method without geometric adjustments. Geometric adjustments improved moment prediction errors by 25% on average and up to 52%, with the largest improvements occurring at the hip. Predicted adjustments to musculoskeletal geometry were comparable to errors reported in the literature between scaled generic geometric models and measurements made from imaging data. Our results demonstrate that with appropriate experimental data, joint moment predictions for walking generated by an EMG-driven model can be improved significantly when automated adjustment of musculoskeletal geometry is included in the model calibration process. PMID:28700708

Prevalence of disability in a composite ≥75 year-old population in Spain: A screening survey based on the International Classification of Functioning

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background The prevalence and predictors of functional status and disability of elderly people have been studied in several European countries including Spain. However, there has been no population-based study incorporating the International Classification of Functioning, Disability and Health (ICF) framework as the basis for assessing disability. The present study reports prevalence rates for mild, moderate, and severe/extreme disability by the domains of activities and participation of the ICF. Methods Nine populations surveyed in previous prevalence studies contributed probabilistic and geographically defined samples in June 2005. The study sample was composed of 503 subjects aged ≥75 years. We implemented a two-phase screening design using the MMSE and the World Health Organization-Disability Assessment Schedule 2nd edition (WHO-DAS II, 12 items) as cognitive and disability screening tools, respectively. Participants scoring within the positive range of the disability screening were administered the full WHO-DAS II (36 items; score range: 0-100) assessing the following areas: Understanding and communication, Getting along with people, Life activities, Getting around, Participation in society, and Self-care. Each disability area assessed by WHO-DAS II (36 items) was reported according to the ICF severity ranges (No problem, 0-4; Mild disability, 5-24; Moderate disability, 25-49; Severe/Extreme disability, 50-100). Results The age-adjusted disability prevalence figures were: 39.17 ± 2.18%, 15.31 ± 1.61%, and 10.14 ± 1.35% for mild, moderate, and severe/extreme disability, respectively. Severe and extreme disability prevalence in mobility and life activities was three times higher than the average, and highest among women. Sex variations were minimal, although life activities for women of 85 years and over had more severe/extreme disability as compared to men (OR = 5.15 95% CI 3.19-8.32). Conclusions Disability is highly prevalent among the Spanish elderly. Sex- and age-specific variations of disability are associated with particular disability domains. PMID:21429194

Resource utilization and disability outcome assessment of combat casualties from Operation Iraqi Freedom and Operation Enduring Freedom.

PubMed

Masini, Brendan D; Waterman, Scott M; Wenke, Joseph C; Owens, Brett D; Hsu, Joseph R; Ficke, James R

2009-04-01

Injuries are common during combat operations. The high costs of extremity injuries both in resource utilization and disability are well known in the civilian sector. We hypothesized that, similarly, combat-related extremity injuries, when compared with other injures from the current conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan, require the largest percentage of medical resources, account for the greatest number of disabled soldiers, and have greater costs of disability benefits. Descriptive epidemiologic study and cost analysis. The Department of Defense Medical Metrics (M2) database was queried for the hospital admissions and billing data of a previously published cohort of soldiers injured in Iraq and Afghanistan between October 2001 and January 2005 and identified from the Joint Theater Trauma Registry. The US Army Physical Disability Administration database was also queried for Physical Evaluation Board outcomes for these soldiers, allowing calculation of disability benefit cost. Primary body region injured was assigned using billing records that gave a primary diagnosis International Classification of Diseases Ninth Edition code, which was corroborated with Joint Theater Trauma Registry injury mechanisms and descriptions for accuracy. A total of 1333 soldiers had complete admission data and were included from 1566 battle injuries not returned to duty of 3102 total casualties. Extremity-injured patients had the longest average inpatient stay at 10.7 days, accounting for 65% of the $65.3-million total inpatient resource utilization, 64% of the 464 patients found "unfit for duty," and 64% of the $170-million total projected disability benefit costs. Extrapolation of data yields total disability costs for this conflict, approaching $2 billion. Combat-related extremity injuries require the greatest utilization of resources for inpatient treatment in the initial postinjury period, cause the greatest number of disabled soldiers, and have the greatest projected disability benefit costs. This study highlights the need for continued or increased funding and support for military orthopaedic surgeons and extremity trauma research efforts.

Bilateral asymmetries in max effort single-leg vertical jumps.

PubMed

Stephens, Thomas M; Lawson, Brooke R; Reiser, Raoul F

2005-01-01

While asymmetries in the lower extremity during jumping may have implications during rehabilitation, it is not clear if healthy subjects should be expected to jump equivalently on each leg. Therefore, the goal of this study was to determine if asymmetries exist in maximal effort single-leg vertical jumps. After obtaining university-approved informed consent, 13 men and 12 women with competitive volleyball playing experience and no injuries of the lower-extremity that would predispose them to asymmetries participated. After thorough warm-up, five maximal effort vertical jumps with countermovement were performed on each leg (random order) with ground reaction forces and lower extremity kinematics recorded. The best three jumps from each leg were analyzed, assigning the leg with the highest jump height average as the dominant side. Asymmetry was assessed by determining statistical significance in the dominant versus non-dominant sides (p < 0.05). A significant interaction existed between side and gender for thigh length and peak vertical ground reaction force. Women had a significantly shorter thigh and men a greater peak vertical ground reaction force on their dominant side. All other parameters were assessed as whole group. Jumps were significantly greater off the dominant leg (2.8 cm on average). No other differences between sides were observed. Significant differences in magnitude (p < 0.05) existed between the men and women in jump height, several anthropometric parameters, minimum ankle and hip angles, and vertical ground reaction forces (peak and average). In conclusion, though a person may jump slightly higher on one leg relative to the other, and women may jump slightly differently than men, the magnitude of the difference should be relatively small and due to the multi-factorial nature of jump performance, individual parameters related to performance may not be consistently different.

Twisting Tourniquet(©) Technique: introducing Schnogh, a novel device and its effectiveness in treating primary and secondary lymphedema of extremities.

PubMed

Chanwimalueang, Narumon; Ekataksin, Wichai; Piyaman, Parkpoom; Pattanapen, Gedsuda; Hanboon, Borimas K

2015-10-01

Twisting Tourniquet(©) or in Thai "Schnogh" is a new invention for compression therapy of lymphedema. Twisting Tourniquet(©) Technique (TTT) is totally noninvasive for lymphedema management. After the amazing successful evidence in the first series of 28 patients, we have conducted preliminary studies in lymphedema clinics. It was found that the combination of gradually increasing constriction force by Schnogh until desired pressure was reached and maintained for 15 min, followed by a 5-min release, doing repeatedly this compression-decompression for at least 10 sessions a day, can generate acceptable results. The aim of the study was to evaluate the scientific effectiveness and establish a treatment protocol of TTT proposed as a therapeutic approach for clinical management of lymphedema. During 2006-2013, from over 3500 patients, 647 with primary/secondary lymphedema passed inclusion criteria, 307 for upper, and 340 for lower extremity. In the 5-day course of TTT, each day patients underwent 10 sessions of a 15-min compression followed by a 5-min decompression. Vegan diet was encouraged as an adjuvant therapy. Among lymphedema patients whose spectrum of edema severity ranged from mild to gigantic, TTT yielded an average volume reduction rate (VR) at 50.2% and 55.6%, making the average edema reduction volume attained at 463 and 1856 mL for upper and lower limb, respectively. The uniformed practice by Schnogh which supports a continual compression-decompression maneuver over 3.5 h daily for five consecutive days could induce an average VR at above half of the swelling in extremities of 647 patients. Schnogh is therefore effective in clinical management of lymphedema under TTT treatment of fibroblastic interstitium. © 2015 The Authors. Cancer Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Future changes in hydro-climatic extremes in the Upper Indus, Ganges, and Brahmaputra River basins

PubMed Central

Lutz, Arthur F.; Nepal, Santosh; Khanal, Sonu; Pradhananga, Saurav; Shrestha, Arun B.; Immerzeel, Walter W.

2017-01-01

Future hydrological extremes, such as floods and droughts, may pose serious threats for the livelihoods in the upstream domains of the Indus, Ganges, Brahmaputra. For this reason, the impacts of climate change on future hydrological extremes is investigated in these river basins. We use a fully-distributed cryospheric-hydrological model to simulate current and future hydrological fluxes and force the model with an ensemble of 8 downscaled General Circulation Models (GCMs) that are selected from the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The model is calibrated on observed daily discharge and geodetic mass balances. The climate forcing and the outputs of the hydrological model are used to evaluate future changes in climatic extremes, and hydrological extremes by focusing on high and low flows. The outcomes show an increase in the magnitude of climatic means and extremes towards the end of the 21st century where climatic extremes tend to increase stronger than climatic means. Future mean discharge and high flow conditions will very likely increase. These increases might mainly be the result of increasing precipitation extremes. To some extent temperature extremes might also contribute to increasing discharge extremes, although this is highly dependent on magnitude of change in temperature extremes. Low flow conditions may occur less frequently, although the uncertainties in low flow projections can be high. The results of this study may contribute to improved understanding on the implications of climate change for the occurrence of future hydrological extremes in the Hindu Kush–Himalayan region. PMID:29287098

Down to Earth with a hazard from space: Mapping geoelectric amplitudes for extreme levels of magnetic-storm disturbance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Love, J. J.

2016-12-01

Magnetic-storm induction of geoelectric fields in the Earth's electrically conducting crust, lithosphere, mantle, and ocean can interfere with the operations of electric-power grid systems. The future occurrence of an extremely intense magnetic storm might even result in continental-scale failure of electric-power distribution. Such an event would entail significant deleterious consequence for the economy and international security. Building on a project established by the President's National Science and Technology Council and the Office of Science and Technology Policy for assessing space-weather induction hazards, we develop a series of geoelectric hazard maps. These are constructed using an empirical parameterization of induction: local estimates of Earth-surface impedance, obtained from EarthScope and USGS magnetotelluric survey data, are convolved with latitude-dependent statistical maps of extreme-value geomagnetic activity, obtained from decades magnetic observatory data. Geoelectric hazard maps are constructed for both north-south and east-west geomagnetic variation, and for both 240-s and 1200-s sinusoidal variation -- periods of interest to the power-grid industry. The maps cover about half of the continental United States. They depict the threshold level that geoelectric amplitude can be expected to exceed, on average, once per century at discrete geographic sites in response to extreme-intensity geomagnetic activity. Of the regions where magnetotelluric data are available, the greatest induction hazards are found in Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Iowa - this being the result of both high-latitude geomagntic activity and complex subsurface conductivity structure. At some sites in the continental United States, once-per-century geoelectric amplitudes can exceed the 1.7 V/km realized in Quebec during the March 1989 storm. This work highlights the importance of geophysical surveys and ground-level monitoring data for assessing space-weather induction hazards.