GPS FOM Chimney Analysis using Generalized Extreme Value Distribution

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ott, Rick; Frisbee, Joe; Saha, Kanan

2004-01-01

Many a time an objective of a statistical analysis is to estimate a limit value like 3-sigma 95% confidence upper limit from a data sample. The generalized Extreme Value Distribution method can be profitably employed in many situations for such an estimate. . .. It is well known that according to the Central Limit theorem the mean value of a large data set is normally distributed irrespective of the distribution of the data from which the mean value is derived. In a somewhat similar fashion it is observed that many times the extreme value of a data set has a distribution that can be formulated with a Generalized Distribution. In space shuttle entry with 3-string GPS navigation the Figure Of Merit (FOM) value gives a measure of GPS navigated state accuracy. A GPS navigated state with FOM of 6 or higher is deemed unacceptable and is said to form a FOM 6 or higher chimney. A FOM chimney is a period of time during which the FOM value stays higher than 5. A longer period of FOM of value 6 or higher causes navigated state to accumulate more error for a lack of state update. For an acceptable landing it is imperative that the state error remains low and hence at low altitude during entry GPS data of FOM greater than 5 must not last more than 138 seconds. I To test the GPS performAnce many entry test cases were simulated at the Avionics Development Laboratory. Only high value FoM chimneys are consequential. The extreme value statistical technique is applied to analyze high value FOM chimneys. The Maximum likelihood method is used to determine parameters that characterize the GEV distribution, and then the limit value statistics are estimated.

A review of statistical methods to analyze extreme precipitation and temperature events in the Mediterranean region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lazoglou, Georgia; Anagnostopoulou, Christina; Tolika, Konstantia; Kolyva-Machera, Fotini

2018-04-01

The increasing trend of the intensity and frequency of temperature and precipitation extremes during the past decades has substantial environmental and socioeconomic impacts. Thus, the objective of the present study is the comparison of several statistical methods of the extreme value theory (EVT) in order to identify which is the most appropriate to analyze the behavior of the extreme precipitation, and high and low temperature events, in the Mediterranean region. The extremes choice was made using both the block maxima and the peaks over threshold (POT) technique and as a consequence both the generalized extreme value (GEV) and generalized Pareto distributions (GPDs) were used to fit them. The results were compared, in order to select the most appropriate distribution for extremes characterization. Moreover, this study evaluates the maximum likelihood estimation, the L-moments and the Bayesian method, based on both graphical and statistical goodness-of-fit tests. It was revealed that the GPD can characterize accurately both precipitation and temperature extreme events. Additionally, GEV distribution with the Bayesian method is proven to be appropriate especially for the greatest values of extremes. Another important objective of this investigation was the estimation of the precipitation and temperature return levels for three return periods (50, 100, and 150 years) classifying the data into groups with similar characteristics. Finally, the return level values were estimated with both GEV and GPD and with the three different estimation methods, revealing that the selected method can affect the return level values for both the parameter of precipitation and temperature.

Spatial variation of statistical properties of extreme water levels along the eastern Baltic Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pindsoo, Katri; Soomere, Tarmo; Rocha, Eugénio

2016-04-01

Most of existing projections of future extreme water levels rely on the use of classic generalised extreme value distributions. The choice to use a particular distribution is often made based on the absolute value of the shape parameter of the Generalise Extreme Value distribution. If this parameter is small, the Gumbel distribution is most appropriate while in the opposite case the Weibull or Frechet distribution could be used. We demonstrate that the alongshore variation in the statistical properties of numerically simulated high water levels along the eastern coast of the Baltic Sea is so large that the use of a single distribution for projections of extreme water levels is highly questionable. The analysis is based on two simulated data sets produced in the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute. The output of the Rossby Centre Ocean model is sampled with a resolution of 6 h and the output of the circulation model NEMO with a resolution of 1 h. As the maxima of water levels of subsequent years may be correlated in the Baltic Sea, we also employ maxima for stormy seasons. We provide a detailed analysis of spatial variation of the parameters of the family of extreme value distributions along an approximately 600 km long coastal section from the north-western shore of Latvia in the Baltic Proper until the eastern Gulf of Finland. The parameters are evaluated using maximum likelihood method and method of moments. The analysis also covers the entire Gulf of Riga. The core parameter of this family of distributions, the shape parameter of the Generalised Extreme Value distribution, exhibits extensive variation in the study area. Its values evaluated using the Hydrognomon software and maximum likelihood method, vary from about -0.1 near the north-western coast of Latvia in the Baltic Proper up to about 0.05 in the eastern Gulf of Finland. This parameter is very close to zero near Tallinn in the western Gulf of Finland. Thus, it is natural that the Gumbel distribution gives adequate projections of extreme water levels for the vicinity of Tallinn. More importantly, this feature indicates that the use of a single distribution for the projections of extreme water levels and their return periods for the entire Baltic Sea coast is inappropriate. The physical reason is the interplay of the complex shape of large subbasins (such as the Gulf of Riga and Gulf of Finland) of the sea and highly anisotropic wind regime. The 'impact' of this anisotropy on the statistics of water level is amplified by the overall anisotropy of the distributions of the frequency of occurrence of high and low water levels. The most important conjecture is that long-term behaviour of water level extremes in different coastal sections of the Baltic Sea may be fundamentally different.

Invited Article: Visualisation of extreme value events in optical communications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Derevyanko, Stanislav; Redyuk, Alexey; Vergeles, Sergey; Turitsyn, Sergei

2018-06-01

Fluctuations of a temporal signal propagating along long-haul transoceanic scale fiber links can be visualised in the spatio-temporal domain drawing visual analogy with ocean waves. Substantial overlapping of information symbols or use of multi-frequency signals leads to strong statistical deviations of local peak power from an average signal power level. We consider long-haul optical communication systems from this unusual angle, treating them as physical systems with a huge number of random statistical events, including extreme value fluctuations that potentially might affect the quality of data transmission. We apply the well-established concepts of adaptive wavefront shaping used in imaging through turbid medium to detect the detrimental phase modulated sequences in optical communications that can cause extreme power outages (rare optical waves of ultra-high amplitude) during propagation down the ultra-long fiber line. We illustrate the concept by a theoretical analysis of rare events of high-intensity fluctuations—optical freak waves, taking as an example an increasingly popular optical frequency division multiplexing data format where the problem of high peak to average power ratio is the most acute. We also show how such short living extreme value spikes in the optical data streams are affected by nonlinearity and demonstrate the negative impact of such events on the system performance.

Large scale variability, long-term trends and extreme events in total ozone over the northern mid-latitudes based on satellite time series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rieder, H. E.; Staehelin, J.; Maeder, J. A.; Ribatet, M.; Davison, A. C.

2009-04-01

Various generations of satellites (e.g. TOMS, GOME, OMI) made spatial datasets of column ozone available to the scientific community. This study has a special focus on column ozone over the northern mid-latitudes. Tools from geostatistics and extreme value theory are applied to analyze variability, long-term trends and frequency distributions of extreme events in total ozone. In a recent case study (Rieder et al., 2009) new tools from extreme value theory (Coles, 2001; Ribatet, 2007) have been applied to the world's longest total ozone record from Arosa, Switzerland (e.g. Staehelin 1998a,b), in order to describe extreme events in low and high total ozone. Within the current study this analysis is extended to satellite datasets for the northern mid-latitudes. Further special emphasis is given on patterns and spatial correlations and the influence of changes in atmospheric dynamics (e.g. tropospheric and lower stratospheric pressure systems) on column ozone. References: Coles, S.: An Introduction to Statistical Modeling of Extreme Values, Springer Series in Statistics, ISBN:1852334592, Springer, Berlin, 2001. Ribatet, M.: POT: Modelling peaks over a threshold, R News, 7, 34-36, 2007. Rieder, H.E., Staehelin, J., Maeder, J.A., Ribatet, M., Stübi, R., Weihs, P., Holawe, F., Peter, T., and Davison, A.C.: From ozone mini holes and mini highs towards extreme value theory: New insights from extreme events and non stationarity, submitted to J. Geophys. Res., 2009. Staehelin, J., Kegel, R., and Harris, N. R.: Trend analysis of the homogenized total ozone series of Arosa (Switzerland), 1929-1996, J. Geophys. Res., 103(D7), 8389-8400, doi:10.1029/97JD03650, 1998a. Staehelin, J., Renaud, A., Bader, J., McPeters, R., Viatte, P., Hoegger, B., Bugnion, V., Giroud, M., and Schill, H.: Total ozone series at Arosa (Switzerland): Homogenization and data comparison, J. Geophys. Res., 103(D5), 5827-5842, doi:10.1029/97JD02402, 1998b.

From ozone mini-holes and mini-highs towards extreme value theory: New insights from extreme events and non-stationarity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rieder, H. E.; Staehelin, J.; Maeder, J. A.; Ribatet, M.; Stübi, R.; Weihs, P.; Holawe, F.; Peter, T.; Davison, A. C.

2009-04-01

Over the last few decades negative trends in stratospheric ozone have been studied because of the direct link between decreasing stratospheric ozone and increasing surface UV-radiation. Recently a discussion on ozone recovery has begun. Long-term measurements of total ozone extending back earlier than 1958 are limited and only available from a few stations in the northern hemisphere. The world's longest total ozone record is available from Arosa, Switzerland (Staehelin et al., 1998a,b). At this site total ozone measurements have been made since late 1926 through the present day. Within this study (Rieder et al., 2009) new tools from extreme value theory (e.g. Coles, 2001; Ribatet, 2007) are applied to select mathematically well-defined thresholds for extreme low and extreme high total ozone. A heavy-tail focused approach is used by fitting the Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) to the Arosa time series. Asymptotic arguments (Pickands, 1975) justify the use of the GPD for modeling exceedances over a sufficiently high (or below a sufficiently low) threshold (Coles, 2001). More precisely, the GPD is the limiting distribution of normalized excesses over a threshold, as the threshold approaches the endpoint of the distribution. In practice, GPD parameters are fitted, to exceedances by maximum likelihood or other methods - such as the probability weighted moments. A preliminary step consists in defining an appropriate threshold for which the asymptotic GPD approximation holds. Suitable tools for threshold selection as the MRL-plot (mean residual life plot) and TC-plot (stability plot) from the POT-package (Ribatet, 2007) are presented. The frequency distribution of extremes in low (termed ELOs) and high (termed EHOs) total ozone and their influence on the long-term changes in total ozone are analyzed. Further it is shown that from the GPD-model the distribution of so-called ozone mini holes (e.g. Bojkov and Balis, 2001) can be precisely estimated and that the "extremes concept" provides new information on the data distribution and variability within the Arosa record as well as on the influence of ELOs and EHOs on the long-term trends of the ozone time series. References: Bojkov, R. D., and Balis, D.S.: Characteristics of episodes with extremely low ozone values in the northern middle latitudes 1975-2000, Ann. Geophys., 19, 797-807, 2001. Coles, S.: An Introduction to Statistical Modeling of Extreme Values, Springer Series in Statistics, ISBN:1852334592, Springer, Berlin, 2001. Pickands, J.: Statistical inference using extreme order statistics, Ann. Stat., 3, 1, 119-131, 1975. Ribatet, M.: POT: Modelling peaks over a threshold, R News, 7, 34-36, 2007. Rieder, H.E., Staehelin, J., Maeder, J.A., Stübi, R., Weihs, P., Holawe, F., and M. Ribatet: From ozone mini holes and mini highs towards extreme value theory: New insights from extreme events and non stationarity, submitted to J. Geophys. Res., 2009. Staehelin, J., Kegel, R., and Harris, N. R.: Trend analysis of the homogenized total ozone series of Arosa (Switzerland), 1929-1996, J. Geophys. Res., 103(D7), 8389-8400, doi:10.1029/97JD03650, 1998a. Staehelin, J., Renaud, A., Bader, J., McPeters, R., Viatte, P., Hoegger, B., Bugnion, V., Giroud, M., and Schill, H.: Total ozone series at Arosa (Switzerland): Homogenization and data comparison, J. Geophys. Res., 103(D5), 5827-5842, doi:10.1029/97JD02402, 1998b.

Extreme geomagnetically induced currents

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kataoka, Ryuho; Ngwira, Chigomezyo

2016-12-01

We propose an emergency alert framework for geomagnetically induced currents (GICs), based on the empirically extreme values and theoretical upper limits of the solar wind parameters and of d B/d t, the time derivative of magnetic field variations at ground. We expect this framework to be useful for preparing against extreme events. Our analysis is based on a review of various papers, including those presented during Extreme Space Weather Workshops held in Japan in 2011, 2012, 2013, and 2014. Large-amplitude d B/d t values are the major cause of hazards associated with three different types of GICs: (1) slow d B/d t with ring current evolution (RC-type), (2) fast d B/d t associated with auroral electrojet activity (AE-type), and (3) transient d B/d t of sudden commencements (SC-type). We set "caution," "warning," and "emergency" alert levels during the main phase of superstorms with the peak Dst index of less than -300 nT (once per 10 years), -600 nT (once per 60 years), or -900 nT (once per 100 years), respectively. The extreme d B/d t values of the AE-type GICs are 2000, 4000, and 6000 nT/min at caution, warning, and emergency levels, respectively. For the SC-type GICs, a "transient alert" is also proposed for d B/d t values of 40 nT/s at low latitudes and 110 nT/s at high latitudes, especially when the solar energetic particle flux is unusually high.

Improving power and robustness for detecting genetic association with extreme-value sampling design.

PubMed

Chen, Hua Yun; Li, Mingyao

2011-12-01

Extreme-value sampling design that samples subjects with extremely large or small quantitative trait values is commonly used in genetic association studies. Samples in such designs are often treated as "cases" and "controls" and analyzed using logistic regression. Such a case-control analysis ignores the potential dose-response relationship between the quantitative trait and the underlying trait locus and thus may lead to loss of power in detecting genetic association. An alternative approach to analyzing such data is to model the dose-response relationship by a linear regression model. However, parameter estimation from this model can be biased, which may lead to inflated type I errors. We propose a robust and efficient approach that takes into consideration of both the biased sampling design and the potential dose-response relationship. Extensive simulations demonstrate that the proposed method is more powerful than the traditional logistic regression analysis and is more robust than the linear regression analysis. We applied our method to the analysis of a candidate gene association study on high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) which includes study subjects with extremely high or low HDL-C levels. Using our method, we identified several SNPs showing a stronger evidence of association with HDL-C than the traditional case-control logistic regression analysis. Our results suggest that it is important to appropriately model the quantitative traits and to adjust for the biased sampling when dose-response relationship exists in extreme-value sampling designs. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Characteristics and present trends of wave extremes in the Mediterranean Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pino, Cosimo; Lionello, Piero; Galati, Maria Barbara

2010-05-01

Wind generated surface waves are an important factor characterizing marine storminess and the marine environment. This contribution considers characteristics and trends of SWH (Significant Wave Height) extremes (both high and low extremes, such as dead calm duration are analyzed). The data analysis is based on a 44-year long simulation (1958-2001) of the wave field in the Mediterranean Sea. The quality of the model simulation is controlled using satellite data. The results show the different characteristics of the different parts of the basin with the variability being higher in the western (where the highest values are produced) than in the eastern areas of the basin (where absence of wave is a rare condition). In fact, both duration of storms and of dead calm episodes is larger in the east than in the west part of the Mediterranean. The African coast and the southern Ionian Sea are the areas were exceptional values of SWH are expected to occur in correspondence with exceptional meteorological events. Significant trends of storm characteristics are present only in sparse areas and suggest a decrease of both storm intensity and duration (a marginal increase of storm intensity is present in the center of the Mediterranean). The statistics of extremes and high SWH values is substantially steady during the second half of the 20th century. The influence of the large-scale teleconnection patterns (TlcP) that are known to be relevant for the Mediterranean climate on the intensity and spatial distribution of extreme SWH (Significant Wave Height) has been investigated. The analysis was focused on the monthly scale analysing the variability of links along the annual cycle. The considered TlcP are the North Atlantic Oscillation, the East-Atlantic / West-Russian pattern and the Scandinavian pattern and their effect on the intensity and the frequency of high/low SWH conditions. The results show it is difficult to establish a dominant TlcP for SWH extremes, because all 4 patterns considered are important for at least few months in the year and none of them is important for the whole year. High extremes in winter and fall are more influenced by the TlcPs than in other seasons and low extremes.

A comparative assessment of statistical methods for extreme weather analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schlögl, Matthias; Laaha, Gregor

2017-04-01

Extreme weather exposure assessment is of major importance for scientists and practitioners alike. We compare different extreme value approaches and fitting methods with respect to their value for assessing extreme precipitation and temperature impacts. Based on an Austrian data set from 25 meteorological stations representing diverse meteorological conditions, we assess the added value of partial duration series over the standardly used annual maxima series in order to give recommendations for performing extreme value statistics of meteorological hazards. Results show the merits of the robust L-moment estimation, which yielded better results than maximum likelihood estimation in 62 % of all cases. At the same time, results question the general assumption of the threshold excess approach (employing partial duration series, PDS) being superior to the block maxima approach (employing annual maxima series, AMS) due to information gain. For low return periods (non-extreme events) the PDS approach tends to overestimate return levels as compared to the AMS approach, whereas an opposite behavior was found for high return levels (extreme events). In extreme cases, an inappropriate threshold was shown to lead to considerable biases that may outperform the possible gain of information from including additional extreme events by far. This effect was neither visible from the square-root criterion, nor from standardly used graphical diagnosis (mean residual life plot), but from a direct comparison of AMS and PDS in synoptic quantile plots. We therefore recommend performing AMS and PDS approaches simultaneously in order to select the best suited approach. This will make the analyses more robust, in cases where threshold selection and dependency introduces biases to the PDS approach, but also in cases where the AMS contains non-extreme events that may introduce similar biases. For assessing the performance of extreme events we recommend conditional performance measures that focus on rare events only in addition to standardly used unconditional indicators. The findings of this study are of relevance for a broad range of environmental variables, including meteorological and hydrological quantities.

Regional-Scale High-Latitude Extreme Geoelectric Fields Pertaining to Geomagnetically Induced Currents

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pulkkinen, Antti; Bernabeu, Emanuel; Eichner, Jan; Viljanen, Ari; Ngwira, Chigomezyo

2015-01-01

Motivated by the needs of the high-voltage power transmission industry, we use data from the high-latitude IMAGE magnetometer array to study characteristics of extreme geoelectric fields at regional scales. We use 10-s resolution data for years 1993-2013, and the fields are characterized using average horizontal geoelectric field amplitudes taken over station groups that span about 500-km distance. We show that geoelectric field structures associated with localized extremes at single stations can be greatly different from structures associated with regionally uniform geoelectric fields, which are well represented by spatial averages over single stations. Visual extrapolation and rigorous extreme value analysis of spatially averaged fields indicate that the expected range for 1-in-100-year extreme events are 3-8 V/km and 3.4-7.1 V/km, respectively. The Quebec reference ground model is used in the calculations.

A comparison of observed extreme water levels at the German Bight elaborated through an extreme value analysis (EVA) with extremes derived from a regionally coupled ocean-atmospheric climate model (MPI-OM)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Möller, Jens; Heinrich, Hartmut

2017-04-01

As a consequence of climate change atmospheric and oceanographic extremes and their potential impacts on coastal regions are of growing concern for governmental authorities responsible for the transportation infrastructure. Highest risks for shipping as well as for rail and road traffic originate from combined effects of extremes of storm surges and heavy rainfall which sometimes lead to insufficient dewatering of inland waterways. The German Ministry of Transport and digital Infrastructure therefore has tasked its Network of Experts to investigate the possible evolutions of extreme threats for low lands and especially for Kiel Canal, which is an important shortcut for shipping between the North and Baltic Seas. In this study we present results of a comparison of an Extreme Value Analysis (EVA) carried out on gauge observations and values derived from a coupled Regional Ocean-Atmosphere Climate Model (MPI-OM). High water levels at the coasts of the North and Baltic Seas are one of the most important hazards which increase the risk of flooding of the low-lying land and prevents such areas from an adequate dewatering. In this study changes in the intensity (magnitude of the extremes) and duration of extreme water levels (above a selected threshold) are investigated for several gauge stations with data partly reaching back to 1843. Different methods are used for the extreme value statistics, (1) a stationary general Pareto distribution (GPD) model as well as (2) an instationary statistical model for better reproduction of the impact of climate change. Most gauge stations show an increase of the mean water level of about 1-2 mm/year, with a stronger increase of the highest water levels and a decrease (or lower increase) of the lowest water levels. Also, the duration of possible dewatering time intervals for the Kiel-Canal was analysed. The results for the historical gauge station observations are compared to the statistics of modelled water levels from the coupled atmosphere-ocean climate model MPI-OM for the time interval from 1951 to 2000. We demonstrate that for high water levels the observations and MPI-OM results are in good agreement, and we provide an estimate on the decreasing dewatering potential for Kiel Canal until the end of the 21st century.

Power laws and extreme values in antibody repertoires

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boyer, Sebastien; Biswas, Dipanwita; Scaramozzino, Natale; Kumar, Ananda Soshee; Nizak, Clément; Rivoire, Olivier

2015-03-01

Evolution by natural selection involves the succession of three steps: mutations, selection and proliferation. We are interested in describing and characterizing the result of selection over a population of many variants. After selection, this population will be dominated by the few best variants, with highest propensity to be selected, or highest ``selectivity.'' We ask the following question: how is the selectivity of the best variants distributed in the population? Extreme value theory, which characterizes the extreme tail of probability distributions in terms of a few universality class, has been proposed to describe it. To test this proposition and identify the relevant universality class, we performed quantitative in vitro experimental selections of libraries of >105 antibodies using the technique of phage display. Data obtained by high-throughput sequencing allows us to fit the selectivity distribution over more than two decades. In most experiments, the results show a striking power law for the selectivity distribution of the top antibodies, consistent with extreme value theory.

Extreme value modelling of Ghana stock exchange index.

PubMed

Nortey, Ezekiel N N; Asare, Kwabena; Mettle, Felix Okoe

2015-01-01

Modelling of extreme events has always been of interest in fields such as hydrology and meteorology. However, after the recent global financial crises, appropriate models for modelling of such rare events leading to these crises have become quite essential in the finance and risk management fields. This paper models the extreme values of the Ghana stock exchange all-shares index (2000-2010) by applying the extreme value theory (EVT) to fit a model to the tails of the daily stock returns data. A conditional approach of the EVT was preferred and hence an ARMA-GARCH model was fitted to the data to correct for the effects of autocorrelation and conditional heteroscedastic terms present in the returns series, before the EVT method was applied. The Peak Over Threshold approach of the EVT, which fits a Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) model to excesses above a certain selected threshold, was employed. Maximum likelihood estimates of the model parameters were obtained and the model's goodness of fit was assessed graphically using Q-Q, P-P and density plots. The findings indicate that the GPD provides an adequate fit to the data of excesses. The size of the extreme daily Ghanaian stock market movements were then computed using the value at risk and expected shortfall risk measures at some high quantiles, based on the fitted GPD model.

400 Years of summer hydroclimate from stable isotopes in Iberian trees

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andreu-Hayles, Laia; Ummenhofer, Caroline C.; Barriendos, Mariano; Schleser, Gerhard H.; Helle, Gerhard; Leuenberger, Markus; Gutiérrez, Emilia; Cook, Edward R.

2017-07-01

Tree rings are natural archives that annually record distinct types of past climate variability depending on the parameters measured. Here, we use ring-width and stable isotopes in cellulose of trees from the northwestern Iberian Peninsula (IP) to understand regional summer hydroclimate over the last 400 years and the associated atmospheric patterns. Correlations between tree rings and climate data demonstrate that isotope signatures in the targeted Iberian pine forests are very sensitive to water availability during the summer period, and are mainly controlled by stomatal conductance. Non-linear methods based on extreme events analysis allow for capturing distinct seasonal climatic variability recorded by tree-ring parameters and asymmetric signals of the associated atmospheric features. Moreover, years with extreme high (low) values in the tree-ring records were characterised by coherent large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns with reduced (enhanced) moisture transport onto the northwestern IP. These analyses of extremes revealed that high/low proxy values do not necessarily correspond to mirror images in the atmospheric anomaly patterns, suggesting different drivers of these patterns and the corresponding signature recorded in the proxies. Regional hydroclimate features across the broader IP and western Europe during extreme wet/dry summers detected by the northwestern IP trees compare favourably to independent multicentury sea level pressure and drought reconstructions for Europe. Historical records also validate our findings that attribute non-linear moisture signals recorded by extreme tree-ring values to distinct large-scale atmospheric patterns and allow for 400-year reconstructions of the frequency of occurrence of extreme conditions in late spring and summer hydroclimate.

400 years of summer hydroclimate from stable isotopes in Iberian trees

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andreu-Hayles, Laia; Ummenhofer, Caroline C.; Barriendos, Mariano; Schleser, Gerhard H.; Helle, Gerhard; Leuenberger, Markus; Gutierrez, Emilia; Cook, Edward R.

2017-04-01

Tree rings are natural archives that annually record distinct types of past climate variability depending on the parameters measured. Here, we use ring-width and stable isotopes in cellulose of trees from the northwestern Iberian Peninsula (IP) to understand regional summer hydroclimate over the last 400 years and the associated atmospheric patterns. Correlations between tree rings and climate data demonstrate that isotope signatures in the targeted Iberian pine forests are very sensitive to water availability during the summer period, and are mainly controlled by stomatal conductance. Non-linear methods based on extreme events analysis allow for capturing distinct seasonal climatic variability recorded by tree-ring parameters and asymmetric signals of the associated atmospheric features. Moreover, years with extreme high (low) values in the tree-ring records were characterised by coherent large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns with reduced (enhanced) moisture transport onto the northwestern IP. These analyses of extremes revealed that high/low proxy values do not necessarily correspond to mirror images in the atmospheric anomaly patterns, suggesting different drivers of these patterns and the corresponding signature recorded in the proxies. Regional hydroclimate features across the broader IP and western Europe during extreme wet/dry summers detected by the northwestern IP trees compare favourably to an independent multicentury sea level pressure and drought reconstruction for Europe. Historical records also validate our findings that attribute non-linear moisture signals recorded by extreme tree-ring values to distinct large-scale atmospheric patterns and allow for 400-yr reconstructions of the frequency of occurrence of extreme conditions in summer hydroclimate. We will discuss how the results for Lillo compare with other records.

Analysis and modeling of extreme temperatures in several cities in northwestern Mexico under climate change conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

García-Cueto, O. Rafael; Cavazos, M. Tereza; de Grau, Pamela; Santillán-Soto, Néstor

2014-04-01

The generalized extreme value distribution is applied in this article to model the statistical behavior of the maximum and minimum temperature distribution tails in four cities of Baja California in northwestern Mexico, using data from 1950-2010. The approach used of the maximum of annual time blocks. Temporal trends were included as covariates in the location parameter (μ), which resulted in significant improvements to the proposed models, particularly for the extreme maximum temperature values in the cities of Mexicali, Tijuana, and Tecate, and the extreme minimum temperature values in Mexicali and Ensenada. These models were used to estimate future probabilities over the next 100 years (2015-2110) for different time periods, and they were compared with changes in the extreme (P90th and P10th) percentiles of maximum and minimum temperature scenarios for a set of six general circulation models under low (RCP4.5) and high (RCP8.5) radiative forcings. By the end of the twenty-first century, the scenarios of the changes in extreme maximum summer temperature are of the same order in both the statistical model and the high radiative scenario (increases of 4-5 °C). The low radiative scenario is more conservative (increases of 2-3 °C). The winter scenario shows that minimum temperatures could be less severe; the temperature increases suggested by the probabilistic model are greater than those projected for the end of the century by the set of global models under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The likely impacts on the region are discussed.

Cumulative hazard: The case of nuisance flooding

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moftakhari, Hamed R.; AghaKouchak, Amir; Sanders, Brett F.; Matthew, Richard A.

2017-02-01

The cumulative cost of frequent events (e.g., nuisance floods) over time may exceed the costs of the extreme but infrequent events for which societies typically prepare. Here we analyze the likelihood of exceedances above mean higher high water and the corresponding property value exposure for minor, major, and extreme coastal floods. Our results suggest that, in response to sea level rise, nuisance flooding (NF) could generate property value exposure comparable to, or larger than, extreme events. Determining whether (and when) low cost, nuisance incidents aggregate into high cost impacts and deciding when to invest in preventive measures are among the most difficult decisions for policymakers. It would be unfortunate if efforts to protect societies from extreme events (e.g., 0.01 annual probability) left them exposed to a cumulative hazard with enormous costs. We propose a Cumulative Hazard Index (CHI) as a tool for framing the future cumulative impact of low cost incidents relative to infrequent extreme events. CHI suggests that in New York, NY, Washington, DC, Miami, FL, San Francisco, CA, and Seattle, WA, a careful consideration of socioeconomic impacts of NF for prioritization is crucial for sustainable coastal flood risk management.

FAST TRACK COMMUNICATION: Freezing and extreme-value statistics in a random energy model with logarithmically correlated potential

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fyodorov, Yan V.; Bouchaud, Jean-Philippe

2008-09-01

We investigate some implications of the freezing scenario proposed by Carpentier and Le Doussal (CLD) for a random energy model (REM) with logarithmically correlated random potential. We introduce a particular (circular) variant of the model, and show that the integer moments of the partition function in the high-temperature phase are given by the well-known Dyson Coulomb gas integrals. The CLD freezing scenario allows one to use those moments for extracting the distribution of the free energy in both high- and low-temperature phases. In particular, it yields the full distribution of the minimal value in the potential sequence. This provides an explicit new class of extreme-value statistics for strongly correlated variables, manifestly different from the standard Gumbel class.

Fidelity of the representation of value in decision-making

PubMed Central

Dowding, Ben A.

2017-01-01

The ability to make optimal decisions depends on evaluating the expected rewards associated with different potential actions. This process is critically dependent on the fidelity with which reward value information can be maintained in the nervous system. Here we directly probe the fidelity of value representation following a standard reinforcement learning task. The results demonstrate a previously-unrecognized bias in the representation of value: extreme reward values, both low and high, are stored significantly more accurately and precisely than intermediate rewards. The symmetry between low and high rewards pertained despite substantially higher frequency of exposure to high rewards, resulting from preferential exploitation of more rewarding options. The observed variation in fidelity of value representation retrospectively predicted performance on the reinforcement learning task, demonstrating that the bias in representation has an impact on decision-making. A second experiment in which one or other extreme-valued option was omitted from the learning sequence showed that representational fidelity is primarily determined by the relative position of an encoded value on the scale of rewards experienced during learning. Both variability and guessing decreased with the reduction in the number of options, consistent with allocation of a limited representational resource. These findings have implications for existing models of reward-based learning, which typically assume defectless representation of reward value. PMID:28248958

Measuring daily Value-at-Risk of SSEC index: A new approach based on multifractal analysis and extreme value theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wei, Yu; Chen, Wang; Lin, Yu

2013-05-01

Recent studies in the econophysics literature reveal that price variability has fractal and multifractal characteristics not only in developed financial markets, but also in emerging markets. Taking high-frequency intraday quotes of the Shanghai Stock Exchange Component (SSEC) Index as example, this paper proposes a new method to measure daily Value-at-Risk (VaR) by combining the newly introduced multifractal volatility (MFV) model and the extreme value theory (EVT) method. Two VaR backtesting techniques are then employed to compare the performance of the model with that of a group of linear and nonlinear generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models. The empirical results show the multifractal nature of price volatility in Chinese stock market. VaR measures based on the multifractal volatility model and EVT method outperform many GARCH-type models at high-risk levels.

Extreme High-Temperature Events Over East Asia in 1.5°C and 2°C Warmer Futures: Analysis of NCAR CESM Low-Warming Experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Donghuan; Zhou, Tianjun; Zou, Liwei; Zhang, Wenxia; Zhang, Lixia

2018-02-01

Extreme high-temperature events have large socioeconomic and human health impacts. East Asia (EA) is a populous region, and it is crucial to assess the changes in extreme high-temperature events in this region under different climate change scenarios. The Community Earth System Model low-warming experiment data were applied to investigate the changes in the mean and extreme high temperatures in EA under 1.5°C and 2°C warming conditions above preindustrial levels. The results show that the magnitude of warming in EA is approximately 0.2°C higher than the global mean. Most populous subregions, including eastern China, the Korean Peninsula, and Japan, will see more intense, more frequent, and longer-lasting extreme temperature events under 1.5°C and 2°C warming. The 0.5°C lower warming will help avoid 35%-46% of the increases in extreme high-temperature events in terms of intensity, frequency, and duration in EA with maximal avoidance values (37%-49%) occurring in Mongolia. Thus, it is beneficial for EA to limit the warming target to 1.5°C rather than 2°C.

Global Weirding? - Using Very Large Ensembles and Extreme Value Theory to assess Changes in Extreme Weather Events Today

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Otto, F. E. L.; Mitchell, D.; Sippel, S.; Black, M. T.; Dittus, A. J.; Harrington, L. J.; Mohd Saleh, N. H.

2014-12-01

A shift in the distribution of socially-relevant climate variables such as daily minimum winter temperatures and daily precipitation extremes, has been attributed to anthropogenic climate change for various mid-latitude regions. However, while there are many process-based arguments suggesting also a change in the shape of these distributions, attribution studies demonstrating this have not currently been undertaken. Here we use a very large initial condition ensemble of ~40,000 members simulating the European winter 2013/2014 using the distributed computing infrastructure under the weather@home project. Two separate scenarios are used:1. current climate conditions, and 2. a counterfactual scenario of "world that might have been" without anthropogenic forcing. Specifically focusing on extreme events, we assess how the estimated parameters of the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution vary depending on variable-type, sampling frequency (daily, monthly, …) and geographical region. We find that the location parameter changes for most variables but, depending on the region and variables, we also find significant changes in scale and shape parameters. The very large ensemble allows, furthermore, to assess whether such findings in the fitted GEV distributions are consistent with an empirical analysis of the model data, and whether the most extreme data still follow a known underlying distribution that in a small sample size might otherwise be thought of as an out-lier. The ~40,000 member ensemble is simulated using 12 different SST patterns (1 'observed', and 11 best guesses of SSTs with no anthropogenic warming). The range in SSTs, along with the corresponding changings in the NAO and high-latitude blocking inform on the dynamics governing some of these extreme events. While strong tele-connection patterns are not found in this particular experiment, the high number of simulated extreme events allows for a more thorough analysis of the dynamics than has been performed before. Therefore, combining extreme value theory with very large ensemble simulations allows us to understand the dynamics of changes in extreme events which is not possible just using the former but also shows in which cases statistics combined with smaller ensembles give as valid results as very large initial conditions.

Long-term trend of satellite-observed significant wave height and impact on ecosystem in the East/Japan Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woo, Hye-Jin; Park, Kyung-Ae

2017-09-01

Significant wave height (SWH) data of nine satellite altimeters were validated with in-situ SWH measurements from buoy stations in the East/Japan Sea (EJS) and the Northwest Pacific Ocean. The spatial and temporal variability of extreme SWHs was investigated by defining the 90th, 95th, and 99th percentiles based on percentile analysis. The annual mean of extreme SWHs was dramatically increased by 3.45 m in the EJS, which is significantly higher than the normal mean of about 1.44 m. The spatial distributions of SWHs showed significantly higher values in the eastern region of the EJS than those in the western part. Characteristic seasonality was found from the time-series SWHs with high SWHs (>2.5 m) in winter but low values (<1 m) in summer. The trends of the normal and extreme (99th percentile) SWHs in the EJS had a positive value of 0.0056 m year-1 and 0.0125 m year-1, respectively. The long-term trend demonstrated that higher SWH values were more extreme with time during the past decades. The predominant spatial distinctions between the coastal regions in the marginal seas of the Northwest Pacific Ocean and open ocean regions were presented. In spring, both normal and extreme SWHs showed substantially increasing trends in the EJS. Finally, we first presented the impact of the long-term trend of extreme SWHs on the marine ecosystem through vertical mixing enhancement in the upper ocean of the EJS.

A new framework for estimating return levels using regional frequency analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winter, Hugo; Bernardara, Pietro; Clegg, Georgina

2017-04-01

We propose a new framework for incorporating more spatial and temporal information into the estimation of extreme return levels. Currently, most studies use extreme value models applied to data from a single site; an approach which is inefficient statistically and leads to return level estimates that are less physically realistic. We aim to highlight the benefits that could be obtained by using methodology based upon regional frequency analysis as opposed to classic single site extreme value analysis. This motivates a shift in thinking, which permits the evaluation of local and regional effects and makes use of the wide variety of data that are now available on high temporal and spatial resolutions. The recent winter storms over the UK during the winters of 2013-14 and 2015-16, which have caused wide-ranging disruption and damaged important infrastructure, provide the main motivation for the current work. One of the most impactful natural hazards is flooding, which is often initiated by extreme precipitation. In this presentation, we focus on extreme rainfall, but shall discuss other meteorological variables alongside potentially damaging hazard combinations. To understand the risks posed by extreme precipitation, we need reliable statistical models which can be used to estimate quantities such as the T-year return level, i.e. the level which is expected to be exceeded once every T-years. Extreme value theory provides the main collection of statistical models that can be used to estimate the risks posed by extreme precipitation events. Broadly, at a single site, a statistical model is fitted to exceedances of a high threshold and the model is used to extrapolate to levels beyond the range of the observed data. However, when we have data at many sites over a spatial domain, fitting a separate model for each separate site makes little sense and it would be better if we could incorporate all this information to improve the reliability of return level estimates. Here, we use the regional frequency analysis approach to define homogeneous regions which are affected by the same storms. Extreme value models are then fitted to the data pooled from across a region. We find that this approach leads to more spatially consistent return level estimates with reduced uncertainty bounds.

Using Effective Professional Development Sessions to Implement Change in Curriculum and Classroom Practices: My Story as a Teacher at Exmouth District High School, WA's Remotest District High

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bedford, Susie

2005-01-01

Teaching in a remote town has its drawbacks with regard to Professional Development (PD), which becomes extremely costly, so each staff member is probably limited to one decent PD once a year. This means choosing PD extremely carefully to ensure "value for money" and hopefully that it will provide the teacher concerned with…

Ensemble-based evaluation of extreme water levels for the eastern Baltic Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eelsalu, Maris; Soomere, Tarmo

2016-04-01

The risks and damages associated with coastal flooding that are naturally associated with an increase in the magnitude of extreme storm surges are one of the largest concerns of countries with extensive low-lying nearshore areas. The relevant risks are even more contrast for semi-enclosed water bodies such as the Baltic Sea where subtidal (weekly-scale) variations in the water volume of the sea substantially contribute to the water level and lead to large spreading of projections of future extreme water levels. We explore the options for using large ensembles of projections to more reliably evaluate return periods of extreme water levels. Single projections of the ensemble are constructed by means of fitting several sets of block maxima with various extreme value distributions. The ensemble is based on two simulated data sets produced in the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute. A hindcast by the Rossby Centre Ocean model is sampled with a resolution of 6 h and a similar hindcast by the circulation model NEMO with a resolution of 1 h. As the annual maxima of water levels in the Baltic Sea are not always uncorrelated, we employ maxima for calendar years and for stormy seasons. As the shape parameter of the Generalised Extreme Value distribution changes its sign and substantially varies in magnitude along the eastern coast of the Baltic Sea, the use of a single distribution for the entire coast is inappropriate. The ensemble involves projections based on the Generalised Extreme Value, Gumbel and Weibull distributions. The parameters of these distributions are evaluated using three different ways: maximum likelihood method and method of moments based on both biased and unbiased estimates. The total number of projections in the ensemble is 40. As some of the resulting estimates contain limited additional information, the members of pairs of projections that are highly correlated are assigned weights 0.6. A comparison of the ensemble-based projection of extreme water levels and their return periods with similar estimates derived from local observations reveals an interesting pattern of match and mismatch. The match is almost perfect in measurement sites where local effects (e.g., wave-induced set-up or local surge in very shallow areas that are not resolved by circulation models) do not contribute to the observed values of water level. There is, however, substantial mismatch between projected and observed extreme values for most of the Estonian coast. The mismatch is largest for sections that are open to high waves and for several bays that are deeply cut into mainland but open for predominant strong wind directions. Detailed quantification of this mismatch eventually makes it possible to develop substantially improved estimates of extreme water levels in sections where local effects considerably contribute into the total water level.

Pituitary, gonadal and adrenal hormones after prolonged residence at extreme altitude in man.

PubMed

Basu, M; Pal, K; Prasad, R; Malhotra, A S; Rao, K S; Sawhney, R C

1997-06-01

High altitude-induced alterations in pituitary, gonadal and adrenal hormones were studied in (i) eugonadal men from the armed forces who were resident at sea level (SL), (ii) SL residents staying at an altitude of 3542 m for periods ranging from 3 to 12 months (acclimatized lowlanders, ALL), (iii) ALL who stayed at 6300 m for 6 months, (iv) ALL who trekked from 3542 to 5080 m and stayed at an altitude of more than 6300 m in the glacier region for 6 months, and (v) high-altitude natives (HAN) resident at an altitude of 3300-3700 m. Circulating levels of LH, FSH, prolactin, cortisol, testosterone, dihydrotestosterone (DHT) and progesterone in ALL at 3542 m and in HAN were not significantly different (p > 0.05) from the SL control values. When the ALL living at 3542 m trekked to an extreme altitude of 5080 m, their testosterone levels showed a significant decrease (p < 0.01) compared to the preceding altitude values but had returned to SL values when measured after 6 months' continuous stay at 6300 m. As with testosterone, the levels of DHT and oestradiol-17 beta (E2) after prolonged stay at extreme altitude were also not significantly different (p > 0.05) from the SL values. The LH levels after trekking to 5080 m were significantly higher (p < 0.01) than at an altitude of 3542 m, but decreased to levels found at 3542 m or SL after prolonged residence at extreme altitude. Plasma levels of ACTH, prolactin, FSH and cortisol on arrival at 5080 m, and after a 6-month stay at extreme altitude, were not significantly different (p > 0.05) from the SL values. Plasma progesterone levels tended to increase on arrival at 5080 m but a significant increase (p < 0.001) was evident only after a 6-month stay at extreme altitude. These observations suggest that prolonged residence at lower as well as at extreme altitude does not appreciably alter blood levels of pituitary, gonadal or adrenal hormones except for plasma levels of progesterone. The exact mechanism and significance of this increase remains unknown, but may be important in increasing the sensitivity of the hypoxic ventilatory response and activation of haemoglobin synthesis.

Extreme weather exposure identification for road networks - a comparative assessment of statistical methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schlögl, Matthias; Laaha, Gregor

2017-04-01

The assessment of road infrastructure exposure to extreme weather events is of major importance for scientists and practitioners alike. In this study, we compare the different extreme value approaches and fitting methods with respect to their value for assessing the exposure of transport networks to extreme precipitation and temperature impacts. Based on an Austrian data set from 25 meteorological stations representing diverse meteorological conditions, we assess the added value of partial duration series (PDS) over the standardly used annual maxima series (AMS) in order to give recommendations for performing extreme value statistics of meteorological hazards. Results show the merits of the robust L-moment estimation, which yielded better results than maximum likelihood estimation in 62 % of all cases. At the same time, results question the general assumption of the threshold excess approach (employing PDS) being superior to the block maxima approach (employing AMS) due to information gain. For low return periods (non-extreme events) the PDS approach tends to overestimate return levels as compared to the AMS approach, whereas an opposite behavior was found for high return levels (extreme events). In extreme cases, an inappropriate threshold was shown to lead to considerable biases that may outperform the possible gain of information from including additional extreme events by far. This effect was visible from neither the square-root criterion nor standardly used graphical diagnosis (mean residual life plot) but rather from a direct comparison of AMS and PDS in combined quantile plots. We therefore recommend performing AMS and PDS approaches simultaneously in order to select the best-suited approach. This will make the analyses more robust, not only in cases where threshold selection and dependency introduces biases to the PDS approach but also in cases where the AMS contains non-extreme events that may introduce similar biases. For assessing the performance of extreme events we recommend the use of conditional performance measures that focus on rare events only in addition to standardly used unconditional indicators. The findings of the study directly address road and traffic management but can be transferred to a range of other environmental variables including meteorological and hydrological quantities.

[The informative value of the functional step test for the purpose of computed optical topography in the children presenting with the functional disorders of the musculoskeletal system].

PubMed

Trukhmanov, I M; Suslova, G A; Ponomarenko, G N

This paper is devoted to the characteristic of the informative value of the functional step test with the application of the heel cushions in the children for the purpose of differential diagnostics of anatomic and functional differences in the length of the lower extremities. A total of 85 schoolchildren with different length of the lower extremities have been examined. The comparative evaluation of the results of clinical and instrumental examinations was undertaken. The data obtained with the help of the functional step test give evidence of its very high sensitivity, specificity, and clinical significant as a tool for the examination of the children with different length of the low extremities. It is concluded that the test is one of the most informative predictors of the effectiveness of rehabilitation in the children with different length of the lower extremities.

Extreme value problems without calculus: a good link with geometry and elementary maths

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ganci, Salvatore

2016-11-01

Some classical examples of problem solving, where an extreme value condition is required, are here considered and/or revisited. The search for non-calculus solutions appears pedagogically useful and intriguing as shown through a rich literature. A teacher, who teaches both maths and physics, (as happens in Italian High schools) can find in these kinds of problems a mind stimulating exercise compared with the standard solution obtained by the differential calculus. A good link between the geometric and analytical explanations is so established.

DESPERATELY SEEKING HAPPINESS: VALUING HAPPINESS IS ASSOCIATED WITH SYMPTOMS AND DIAGNOSIS OF DEPRESSION.

PubMed

Ford, Brett Q; Shallcross, Amanda J; Mauss, Iris B; Floerke, Victoria A; Gruber, June

Culture shapes the emotions people feel and want to feel. In Western cultures, happiness is an emotion that many people want to feel. Although experiencing happiness is associated with increased well-being and psychological health, recent evidence suggests wanting to feel happy to an extreme degree, or, highly valuing happiness, leads to decreased well-being. To examine whether these effects of valuing happiness might extend to clinical outcomes, we examined the hypothesis that depression is associated with highly valuing happiness. To do so, we examined the relationship between valuing happiness and depression in two U.S. samples. As hypothesized, valuing happiness was associated with increased depressive symptoms in a community sample with remitted major depressive disorder (MDD), even when controlling for social desirability and neuroticism (Study 1). Furthermore, valuing happiness was elevated in a remitted MDD sample (vs. healthy controls), even when controlling for current depressive symptoms, general affect valuation, and extreme goal pursuit (Study 2). Taken together, these findings suggest that the culturally-pervasive value placed on attaining happiness can represent a risk factor for symptoms and a diagnosis of depression. More broadly, they indicate that a cultural approach can meaningfully extend our understanding of clinical phenomena.

DESPERATELY SEEKING HAPPINESS: VALUING HAPPINESS IS ASSOCIATED WITH SYMPTOMS AND DIAGNOSIS OF DEPRESSION

PubMed Central

Ford, Brett Q.; Shallcross, Amanda J.; Mauss, Iris B.; Floerke, Victoria A.; Gruber, June

2015-01-01

Culture shapes the emotions people feel and want to feel. In Western cultures, happiness is an emotion that many people want to feel. Although experiencing happiness is associated with increased well-being and psychological health, recent evidence suggests wanting to feel happy to an extreme degree, or, highly valuing happiness, leads to decreased well-being. To examine whether these effects of valuing happiness might extend to clinical outcomes, we examined the hypothesis that depression is associated with highly valuing happiness. To do so, we examined the relationship between valuing happiness and depression in two U.S. samples. As hypothesized, valuing happiness was associated with increased depressive symptoms in a community sample with remitted major depressive disorder (MDD), even when controlling for social desirability and neuroticism (Study 1). Furthermore, valuing happiness was elevated in a remitted MDD sample (vs. healthy controls), even when controlling for current depressive symptoms, general affect valuation, and extreme goal pursuit (Study 2). Taken together, these findings suggest that the culturally-pervasive value placed on attaining happiness can represent a risk factor for symptoms and a diagnosis of depression. More broadly, they indicate that a cultural approach can meaningfully extend our understanding of clinical phenomena. PMID:25678736

On the thresholds in modeling of high flows via artificial neural networks - A bootstrapping analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Panagoulia, D.; Trichakis, I.

2012-04-01

Considering the growing interest in simulating hydrological phenomena with artificial neural networks (ANNs), it is useful to figure out the potential and limits of these models. In this study, the main objective is to examine how to improve the ability of an ANN model to simulate extreme values of flow utilizing a priori knowledge of threshold values. A three-layer feedforward ANN was trained by using the back propagation algorithm and the logistic function as activation function. By using the thresholds, the flow was partitioned in low (x < μ), medium (μ ≤ x ≤ μ + 2σ) and high (x > μ + 2σ) values. The employed ANN model was trained for high flow partition and all flow data too. The developed methodology was implemented over a mountainous river catchment (the Mesochora catchment in northwestern Greece). The ANN model received as inputs pseudo-precipitation (rain plus melt) and previous observed flow data. After the training was completed the bootstrapping methodology was applied to calculate the ANN confidence intervals (CIs) for a 95% nominal coverage. The calculated CIs included only the uncertainty, which comes from the calibration procedure. The results showed that an ANN model trained specifically for high flows, with a priori knowledge of the thresholds, can simulate these extreme values much better (RMSE is 31.4% less) than an ANN model trained with all data of the available time series and using a posteriori threshold values. On the other hand the width of CIs increases by 54.9% with a simultaneous increase by 64.4% of the actual coverage for the high flows (a priori partition). The narrower CIs of the high flows trained with all data may be attributed to the smoothing effect produced from the use of the full data sets. Overall, the results suggest that an ANN model trained with a priori knowledge of the threshold values has an increased ability in simulating extreme values compared with an ANN model trained with all the data and a posteriori knowledge of the thresholds.

Beyond Traditional Extreme Value Theory Through a Metastatistical Approach: Lessons Learned from Precipitation, Hurricanes, and Storm Surges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marani, M.; Zorzetto, E.; Hosseini, S. R.; Miniussi, A.; Scaioni, M.

2017-12-01

The Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution is widely adopted irrespective of the properties of the stochastic process generating the extreme events. However, GEV presents several limitations, both theoretical (asymptotic validity for a large number of events/year or hypothesis of Poisson occurrences of Generalized Pareto events), and practical (fitting uses just yearly maxima or a few values above a high threshold). Here we describe the Metastatistical Extreme Value Distribution (MEVD, Marani & Ignaccolo, 2015), which relaxes asymptotic or Poisson/GPD assumptions and makes use of all available observations. We then illustrate the flexibility of the MEVD by applying it to daily precipitation, hurricane intensity, and storm surge magnitude. Application to daily rainfall from a global raingauge network shows that MEVD estimates are 50% more accurate than those from GEV when the recurrence interval of interest is much greater than the observational period. This makes MEVD suited for application to satellite rainfall observations ( 20 yrs length). Use of MEVD on TRMM data yields extreme event patterns that are in better agreement with surface observations than corresponding GEV estimates.Applied to the HURDAT2 Atlantic hurricane intensity dataset, MEVD significantly outperforms GEV estimates of extreme hurricanes. Interestingly, the Generalized Pareto distribution used for "ordinary" hurricane intensity points to the existence of a maximum limit wind speed that is significantly smaller than corresponding physically-based estimates. Finally, we applied the MEVD approach to water levels generated by tidal fluctuations and storm surges at a set of coastal sites spanning different storm-surge regimes. MEVD yields accurate estimates of large quantiles and inferences on tail thickness (fat vs. thin) of the underlying distribution of "ordinary" surges. In summary, the MEVD approach presents a number of theoretical and practical advantages, and outperforms traditional approaches in several applications. We conclude that the MEVD is a significant contribution to further generalize extreme value theory, with implications for a broad range of Earth Sciences.

Min and Max Exponential Extreme Interval Values and Statistics

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jance, Marsha; Thomopoulos, Nick

2009-01-01

The extreme interval values and statistics (expected value, median, mode, standard deviation, and coefficient of variation) for the smallest (min) and largest (max) values of exponentially distributed variables with parameter ? = 1 are examined for different observation (sample) sizes. An extreme interval value g[subscript a] is defined as a…

Countering Violent Extremism Policy in the United States: Are CVE Programs in America Effectively Mitigating the Threat of Homegrown Violent Extremism

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-12-01

anger and violence of those groups improperly judged as “inferior,” especially when a society fails to instill a sense of communal values in the overall...more likely when people experience ‘collective strains’ that are: 1. High in Magnitude with civilians affected; 2. Unjust; 3. Inflicted by... American efforts to counter violent extremism, “if properly implemented, can help sway young people from radicalizing, thereby saving lives and enabling

Extreme dissolved oxygen variability in urbanised tropical wetlands: The need for detailed monitoring to protect nursery ground values

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dubuc, Alexia; Waltham, Nathan; Malerba, Martino; Sheaves, Marcus

2017-11-01

Little is known about levels of dissolved oxygen fish are exposed to daily in typical urbanised tropical wetlands found along the Great Barrier Reef coastline. This study investigates diel dissolved oxygen (DO) dynamics in one of these typical urbanised wetlands, in tropical North Queensland, Australia. High frequency data loggers (DO, temperature, depth) were deployed for several days over the summer months in different tidal pools and channels that fish use as temporal or permanent refuges. DO was extremely variable over a 24 h cycle, and across the small-scale wetland. The high spatial and temporal DO variability measured was affected by time of day and tidal factors, namely water depth, tidal range and tidal direction (flood vs ebb). For the duration of the logging time, DO was mainly above the adopted threshold for hypoxia (50% saturation), however, for around 11% of the time, and on almost every logging day, DO values fell below the threshold, including a severe hypoxic event (<5% saturation) that continued for several hours. Fish still use this wetland intensively, so must be able to cope with low DO periods. Despite the ability of fish to tolerate extreme conditions, continuing urban expansion is likely to lead to further water quality degradation and so potential loss of nursery ground value. There is a substantial discontinuity between the recommended DO values in the Australian and New Zealand Guidelines for Fresh and Marine Water Quality and the values observed in this wetland, highlighting the limited value of these guidelines for management purposes. Local and regional high frequency data monitoring programs, in conjunction with local exposure risk studies are needed to underpin the development of the management that will ensure the sustainability of coastal wetlands.

Uncertainties in obtaining high reliability from stress-strength models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Neal, Donald M.; Matthews, William T.; Vangel, Mark G.

1992-01-01

There has been a recent interest in determining high statistical reliability in risk assessment of aircraft components. The potential consequences are identified of incorrectly assuming a particular statistical distribution for stress or strength data used in obtaining the high reliability values. The computation of the reliability is defined as the probability of the strength being greater than the stress over the range of stress values. This method is often referred to as the stress-strength model. A sensitivity analysis was performed involving a comparison of reliability results in order to evaluate the effects of assuming specific statistical distributions. Both known population distributions, and those that differed slightly from the known, were considered. Results showed substantial differences in reliability estimates even for almost nondetectable differences in the assumed distributions. These differences represent a potential problem in using the stress-strength model for high reliability computations, since in practice it is impossible to ever know the exact (population) distribution. An alternative reliability computation procedure is examined involving determination of a lower bound on the reliability values using extreme value distributions. This procedure reduces the possibility of obtaining nonconservative reliability estimates. Results indicated the method can provide conservative bounds when computing high reliability. An alternative reliability computation procedure is examined involving determination of a lower bound on the reliability values using extreme value distributions. This procedure reduces the possibility of obtaining nonconservative reliability estimates. Results indicated the method can provide conservative bounds when computing high reliability.

Computer simulation of immobilized pH gradients at acidic and alkaline extremes - A quest for extended pH intervals

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mosher, Richard A.; Bier, Milan; Righetti, Pier Giorgio

1986-01-01

Computer simulations of the concentration profiles of simple biprotic ampholytes with Delta pKs 1, 2, and 3, on immobilized pH gradients (IPG) at extreme pH values (pH 3-4 and pH 10-11) show markedly skewed steady-state profiles with increasing kurtosis at higher Delta pK values. Across neutrality, all the peaks are symmetric irrespective of their Delta pK values, but they show very high contribution to the conductivity of the background gel and significant alteration of the local buffering capacity. The problems of skewness, due to the exponential conductivity profiles at low and high pHs, and of gel burning due to a strong electroosmotic flow generated by the net charges in the gel matrix, also at low and high pHs, are solved by incorporating in the IPG gel a strong viscosity gradient. This is generated by a gradient of linear polyacrylamide which is trapped in the gel by the polymerization process.

Seasonal changes in gastric mucosal factors associated with peptic ulcer bleeding.

PubMed

Yuan, Xiao-Gang; Xie, Chuan; Chen, Jiang; Xie, Yong; Zhang, Kun-He; Lu, Nong-Hua

2015-01-01

A close association has been established between climate and peptic ulcer bleeding (PUB). The incidence of PUB in cold climates is significantly higher than that in hot climates. In this study, gastric mucosal damage and its barrier function (through associated barrier factors) in extreme climate conditions were examined to investigate the pathogenesis of PUB in extreme cold climates. Gastric juice and biopsy specimens were collected from 176 patients with peptic ulcer. Conventional hematoxylin and eosin staining was used to exclude malignant ulcers. Helicobacter pylori infections were detected by modified Giemsa staining. pH values of the gastric juice samples were obtained on-site by precise pH dipstick readings. The protein expression levels of heat shock protein (HSP) 70, occludin, nitric oxide synthase (NOS), epidermal growth factor (EGF) and EGF receptor (EGFR) in the gastric mucosa were detected by immunohistochemistry. No significant differences were identified between the high and low bleeding risk groups in the rates of H. pylori infection and the pH values of the gastric juices in the extreme hot or cold climates. Furthermore, no statistically significant differences were identified in the protein expression levels of occludin, NOS, EGF and EGFR between the high and low bleeding risk groups. In the extreme cold climate, the expression of HSP70 and the mucus thickness of the gastric antrum in the high bleeding risk group were significantly lower than those in the low bleeding risk group. The protein expression levels of occludin, HSP70, NOS and EGFR in the extreme cold climate were significantly lower than those in the extreme hot climate, whereas the gastric acid secretion was significantly higher in the extreme cold climate than that in the extreme hot climate. In conclusion, low expression of HSP70 in the gastric mucosa and reduced gastric mucus thickness may play key roles in the mechanism of PUB in extreme cold climates. The significant decrease in barrier factors and increase in damage in extreme cold climates may be associated with the seasonal pattern of peptic ulcers.

Seasonal changes in gastric mucosal factors associated with peptic ulcer bleeding

PubMed Central

YUAN, XIAO-GANG; XIE, CHUAN; CHEN, JIANG; XIE, YONG; ZHANG, KUN-HE; LU, NONG-HUA

2015-01-01

A close association has been established between climate and peptic ulcer bleeding (PUB). The incidence of PUB in cold climates is significantly higher than that in hot climates. In this study, gastric mucosal damage and its barrier function (through associated barrier factors) in extreme climate conditions were examined to investigate the pathogenesis of PUB in extreme cold climates. Gastric juice and biopsy specimens were collected from 176 patients with peptic ulcer. Conventional hematoxylin and eosin staining was used to exclude malignant ulcers. Helicobacter pylori infections were detected by modified Giemsa staining. pH values of the gastric juice samples were obtained on-site by precise pH dipstick readings. The protein expression levels of heat shock protein (HSP) 70, occludin, nitric oxide synthase (NOS), epidermal growth factor (EGF) and EGF receptor (EGFR) in the gastric mucosa were detected by immunohistochemistry. No significant differences were identified between the high and low bleeding risk groups in the rates of H. pylori infection and the pH values of the gastric juices in the extreme hot or cold climates. Furthermore, no statistically significant differences were identified in the protein expression levels of occludin, NOS, EGF and EGFR between the high and low bleeding risk groups. In the extreme cold climate, the expression of HSP70 and the mucus thickness of the gastric antrum in the high bleeding risk group were significantly lower than those in the low bleeding risk group. The protein expression levels of occludin, HSP70, NOS and EGFR in the extreme cold climate were significantly lower than those in the extreme hot climate, whereas the gastric acid secretion was significantly higher in the extreme cold climate than that in the extreme hot climate. In conclusion, low expression of HSP70 in the gastric mucosa and reduced gastric mucus thickness may play key roles in the mechanism of PUB in extreme cold climates. The significant decrease in barrier factors and increase in damage in extreme cold climates may be associated with the seasonal pattern of peptic ulcers. PMID:25452787

Forecasting the value-at-risk of Chinese stock market using the HARQ model and extreme value theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Guangqiang; Wei, Yu; Chen, Yongfei; Yu, Jiang; Hu, Yang

2018-06-01

Using intraday data of the CSI300 index, this paper discusses value-at-risk (VaR) forecasting of the Chinese stock market from the perspective of high-frequency volatility models. First, we measure the realized volatility (RV) with 5-minute high-frequency returns of the CSI300 index and then model it with the newly introduced heterogeneous autoregressive quarticity (HARQ) model, which can handle the time-varying coefficients of the HAR model. Second, we forecast the out-of-sample VaR of the CSI300 index by combining the HARQ model and extreme value theory (EVT). Finally, using several popular backtesting methods, we compare the VaR forecasting accuracy of HARQ model with other traditional HAR-type models, such as HAR, HAR-J, CHAR, and SHAR. The empirical results show that the novel HARQ model can beat other HAR-type models in forecasting the VaR of the Chinese stock market at various risk levels.

The Influence of Altering Push Force Effectiveness on Upper Extremity Demand during Wheelchair Propulsion

PubMed Central

Rankin, Jeffery W.; Kwarciak, Andrew M.; Richter, W. Mark; Neptune, Richard R.

2010-01-01

Manual wheelchair propulsion has been linked to a high incidence of overuse injury and pain in the upper extremity, which may be caused by the high load requirements and low mechanical efficiency of the task. Previous studies have suggested that poor mechanical efficiency may be due to a low effective handrim force (i.e. applied force that is not directed tangential to the handrim). As a result, studies attempting to reduce upper extremity demand have used various measures of force effectiveness (e.g. fraction effective force, FEF) as a guide for modifying propulsion technique, developing rehabilitation programs and configuring wheelchairs. However, the relationship between FEF and upper extremity demand is not well understood. The purpose of this study was to use forward dynamics simulations of wheelchair propulsion to determine the influence of FEF on upper extremity demand by quantifying individual muscle stress, work and handrim force contributions at different values of FEF. Simulations maximizing and minimizing FEF resulted in higher average muscle stresses (23% and 112%) and total muscle work (28% and 71%) compared to a nominal FEF simulation. The maximal FEF simulation also shifted muscle use from muscles crossing the elbow to those at the shoulder (e.g. rotator cuff muscles), placing greater demand on shoulder muscles during propulsion. The optimal FEF value appears to represent a balance between increasing push force effectiveness to increase mechanical efficiency and minimizing upper extremity demand. Thus, care should be taken in using force effectiveness as a metric to reduce upper extremity demand. PMID:20674921

About climate variabilitiy leading the hydric condition of the soil in the rainfed region of Argentina

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pántano, V. C.; Penalba, O. C.

2013-05-01

Extreme events of temperature and rainfall have a socio-economic impact in the rainfed agriculture production region in Argentina. The magnitude of the impact can be analyzed through the water balance which integrates the characteristics of the soil and climate conditions. Changes observed in climate variables during the last decades affected the components of the water balance. As a result, a displacement of the agriculture border towards the west was produced, improving the agricultural production of the region. The objective of this work is to analyze how the variability of rainfall and temperature leads the hydric condition of the soil, with special focus on extreme events. The hydric conditions of the soil (HC= Excess- Deficit) were estimated from the monthly water balance (Thornthwaite and Mather method, 1957), using monthly potential evapotranspiration (PET) and monthly accumulated rainfall (R) for 33 stations (period 1970-2006). Information of temperature and rainfall was provided by National Weather Service and the effective capacity of soil water was considered from Forte Lay and Spescha (2001). An agricultural extreme condition occurs when soil moisture and rainfall are inadequate or excessive for the development of the crops. In this study, we define an extreme event when the variable is less (greater) than its 20% and 10% (80% and 90%) percentile. In order to evaluate how sensitive is the HC to water and heat stress in the region, different conditional probabilities were evaluated. There is a weaker response of HC to extreme low PET while extreme low R leads high values of HC. However, this behavior is not always observed, especially in the western region where extreme high and low PET show a stronger influence over the HC. Finally, to analyze the temporal variability of extreme PET and R, leading hydric condition of the soil, the number of stations presenting extreme conditions was computed for each month. As an example, interesting results were observed for April. During this month, the water recharge of the soil is crucial to let the winter crops manage with the scarce rainfalls occurring in the following months. In 1970, 1974, 1977, 1978 and 1997 more than 50% of the stations were under extreme high PET; while 1970, 1974, 1978 and 1988 presented more than 40% under extreme low R. Thus, the 70s was the more threatened decade of the period. Since the 80s (except for 1997), extreme dry events due to one variable or the other are mostly presented separately, over smaller areas. The response of the spatial distribution of HC is stronger when both variables present extreme conditions. In particular, during 1997 the region presents extreme low values of HC as a consequence of extreme low R and high PET. Communities dependent on agriculture are highly sensitive to climate variability and its extremes. In the studied region, it was shown that scarce water and heat stress contribute to the resulting hydric condition, producing strong impact over different productive activities. Extreme temperature seems to have a stronger influence over extreme unfavorable hydric conditions.

Magnesium Isotope Ratios in ω Centauri Red Giants

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Da Costa, G. S.; Norris, John E.; Yong, David

2013-05-01

We have used the high-resolution observations obtained at the Anglo-Australian Telescope with Ultra-High Resolution Facility (R ~ 100,000) and at Gemini-S with b-HROS (R ~ 150,000) to determine magnesium isotope ratios for seven ω Cen red giants that cover a range in iron abundance from [Fe/H] = -1.78 to -0.78 dex, and for two red giants in M4 (NGC 6121). The ω Cen stars sample both the "primordial" (i.e., O-rich, Na- and Al-poor) and the "extreme" (O-depleted, Na- and Al-rich) populations in the cluster. The primordial population stars in both ω Cen and M4 show (25Mg, 26Mg)/24Mg isotopic ratios that are consistent with those found for the primordial population in other globular clusters with similar [Fe/H] values. The isotopic ratios for the ω Cen extreme stars are also consistent with those for extreme population stars in other clusters. The results for the extreme population stars studied indicate that the 26Mg/24Mg ratio is highest at intermediate metallicities ([Fe/H] < -1.4 dex), and for the highest [Al/Fe] values. Further, the relative abundance of 26Mg in the extreme population stars is notably higher than that of 25Mg, in contrast to model predictions. The 25Mg/24Mg isotopic ratio in fact does not show any obvious dependence on either [Fe/H] or [Al/Fe] nor, intriguingly, any obvious difference between the primordial and extreme population stars.

Suitability of the isolated chicken eye test for classification of extreme pH detergents and cleaning products.

PubMed

Cazelle, Elodie; Eskes, Chantra; Hermann, Martina; Jones, Penny; McNamee, Pauline; Prinsen, Menk; Taylor, Hannah; Wijnands, Marcel V W

2015-04-01

A.I.S.E. investigated the suitability of the regulatory adopted ICE in vitro test method (OECD TG 438) with or without histopathology to identify detergent and cleaning formulations having extreme pH that require classification as EU CLP/UN GHS Category 1. To this aim, 18 extreme pH detergent and cleaning formulations were tested covering both alkaline and acidic extreme pHs. The ICE standard test method following OECD Test Guideline 438 showed good concordance with in vivo classification (83%) and good and balanced specificity and sensitivity values (83%) which are in line with the performances of currently adopted in vitro test guidelines, confirming its suitability to identify Category 1 extreme pH detergent and cleaning products. In contrast to previous findings obtained with non-extreme pH formulations, the use of histopathology did not improve the sensitivity of the assay whilst it strongly decreased its specificity for the extreme pH formulations. Furthermore, use of non-testing prediction rules for classification showed poor concordance values (33% for the extreme pH rule and 61% for the EU CLP additivity approach) with high rates of over-prediction (100% for the extreme pH rule and 50% for the additivity approach), indicating that these non-testing prediction rules are not suitable to predict Category 1 hazards of extreme pH detergent and cleaning formulations. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The nonstationary impact of local temperature changes and ENSO on extreme precipitation at the global scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Qiaohong; Miao, Chiyuan; Qiao, Yuanyuan; Duan, Qingyun

2017-12-01

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and local temperature are important drivers of extreme precipitation. Understanding the impact of ENSO and temperature on the risk of extreme precipitation over global land will provide a foundation for risk assessment and climate-adaptive design of infrastructure in a changing climate. In this study, nonstationary generalized extreme value distributions were used to model extreme precipitation over global land for the period 1979-2015, with ENSO indicator and temperature as covariates. Risk factors were estimated to quantify the contrast between the influence of different ENSO phases and temperature. The results show that extreme precipitation is dominated by ENSO over 22% of global land and by temperature over 26% of global land. With a warming climate, the risk of high-intensity daily extreme precipitation increases at high latitudes but decreases in tropical regions. For ENSO, large parts of North America, southern South America, and southeastern and northeastern China are shown to suffer greater risk in El Niño years, with more than double the chance of intense extreme precipitation in El Niño years compared with La Niña years. Moreover, regions with more intense precipitation are more sensitive to ENSO. Global climate models were used to investigate the changing relationship between extreme precipitation and the covariates. The risk of extreme, high-intensity precipitation increases across high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere but decreases in middle and lower latitudes under a warming climate scenario, and will likely trigger increases in severe flooding and droughts across the globe. However, there is some uncertainties associated with the influence of ENSO on predictions of future extreme precipitation, with the spatial extent and risk varying among the different models.

A hadronic origin for ultra-high-frequency-peaked BL Lac objects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cerruti, M.; Zech, A.; Boisson, C.; Inoue, S.

2015-03-01

Current Cherenkov telescopes have identified a population of ultra-high-frequency peaked BL Lac objects (UHBLs), also known as extreme blazars, that exhibit exceptionally hard TeV spectra, including 1ES 0229+200, 1ES 0347-121, RGB J0710+591, 1ES 1101-232, and 1ES 1218+304. Although one-zone synchrotron-self-Compton (SSC) models have been generally successful in interpreting the high-energy emission observed in other BL Lac objects, they are problematic for UHBLs, necessitating very large Doppler factors and/or extremely high minimum Lorentz factors of the emitting leptonic population. In this context, we have investigated alternative scenarios where hadronic emission processes are important, using a newly developed (lepto-)hadronic numerical code to systematically explore the physical parameters of the emission region that reproduces the observed spectra while avoiding the extreme values encountered in pure SSC models. Assuming a fixed Doppler factor δ = 30, two principal parameter regimes are identified, where the high-energy emission is due to: (1) proton-synchrotron radiation, with magnetic fields B ˜ 1-100 G and maximum proton energies Ep; max ≲ 1019 eV; and (2) synchrotron emission from p-γ-induced cascades as well as SSC emission from primary leptons, with B ˜ 0.1-1 G and Ep; max ≲ 1017 eV. This can be realized with plausible, sub-Eddington values for the total (kinetic plus magnetic) power of the emitting plasma, in contrast to hadronic interpretations for other blazar classes that often warrant highly super-Eddington values.

Assessing the features of extreme smog in China and the differentiated treatment strategy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deng, Lu; Zhang, Zhengjun

2018-01-01

Extreme smog can have potentially harmful effects on human health, the economy and daily life. However, the average (mean) values do not provide strategically useful information on the hazard analysis and control of extreme smog. This article investigates China's smog extremes by applying extreme value analysis to hourly PM2.5 data from 2014 to 2016 obtained from monitoring stations across China. By fitting a generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution to exceedances over a station-specific extreme smog level at each monitoring location, all study stations are grouped into eight different categories based on the estimated mean and shape parameter values of fitted GEV distributions. The extreme features characterized by the mean of the fitted extreme value distribution, the maximum frequency and the tail index of extreme smog at each location are analysed. These features can provide useful information for central/local government to conduct differentiated treatments in cities within different categories and conduct similar prevention goals and control strategies among those cities belonging to the same category in a range of areas. Furthermore, hazardous hours, breaking probability and the 1-year return level of each station are demonstrated by category, based on which the future control and reduction targets of extreme smog are proposed for the cities of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei as an example.

Comparison of the Effects of Walking with and without Nordic Pole on Upper Extremity and Lower Extremity Muscle Activation.

PubMed

Shim, Je-Myung; Kwon, Hae-Yeon; Kim, Ha-Roo; Kim, Bo-In; Jung, Ju-Hyeon

2013-12-01

[Purpose] The aim of this study was to assess the effect of Nordic pole walking on the electromyographic activities of upper extremity and lower extremity muscles. [Subjects and Methods] The subjects were randomly divided into two groups as follows: without Nordic pole walking group (n=13) and with Nordic pole walking group (n=13). The EMG data were collected by measurement while the subjects walking on a treadmill for 30 minutes by measuring from one heel strike to the next. [Results] Both the average values and maximum values of the muscle activity of the upper extremity increased in both the group that used Nordic poles and the group that did not use Nordic poles, and the values showed statistically significant differences. There was an increase in the average value for muscle activity of the latissimus dorsi, but the difference was not statistically significant, although there was a statistically significant increase in its maximum value. The average and maximum values for muscle activity of the lower extremity did not show large differences in either group, and the values did not show any statistically significant differences. [Conclusion] The use of Nordic poles by increased muscle activity of the upper extremity compared with regular walking but did not affect the lower extremity.

Comparison of the Effects of Walking with and without Nordic Pole on Upper Extremity and Lower Extremity Muscle Activation

PubMed Central

Shim, Je-myung; Kwon, Hae-yeon; Kim, Ha-roo; Kim, Bo-in; Jung, Ju-hyeon

2014-01-01

[Purpose] The aim of this study was to assess the effect of Nordic pole walking on the electromyographic activities of upper extremity and lower extremity muscles. [Subjects and Methods] The subjects were randomly divided into two groups as follows: without Nordic pole walking group (n=13) and with Nordic pole walking group (n=13). The EMG data were collected by measurement while the subjects walking on a treadmill for 30 minutes by measuring from one heel strike to the next. [Results] Both the average values and maximum values of the muscle activity of the upper extremity increased in both the group that used Nordic poles and the group that did not use Nordic poles, and the values showed statistically significant differences. There was an increase in the average value for muscle activity of the latissimus dorsi, but the difference was not statistically significant, although there was a statistically significant increase in its maximum value. The average and maximum values for muscle activity of the lower extremity did not show large differences in either group, and the values did not show any statistically significant differences. [Conclusion] The use of Nordic poles by increased muscle activity of the upper extremity compared with regular walking but did not affect the lower extremity. PMID:24409018

Spatial extreme value analysis to project extremes of large-scale indicators for severe weather

PubMed Central

Gilleland, Eric; Brown, Barbara G; Ammann, Caspar M

2013-01-01

Concurrently high values of the maximum potential wind speed of updrafts (Wmax) and 0–6 km wind shear (Shear) have been found to represent conducive environments for severe weather, which subsequently provides a way to study severe weather in future climates. Here, we employ a model for the product of these variables (WmSh) from the National Center for Atmospheric Research/United States National Center for Environmental Prediction reanalysis over North America conditioned on their having extreme energy in the spatial field in order to project the predominant spatial patterns of WmSh. The approach is based on the Heffernan and Tawn conditional extreme value model. Results suggest that this technique estimates the spatial behavior of WmSh well, which allows for exploring possible changes in the patterns over time. While the model enables a method for inferring the uncertainty in the patterns, such analysis is difficult with the currently available inference approach. A variation of the method is also explored to investigate how this type of model might be used to qualitatively understand how the spatial patterns of WmSh correspond to extreme river flow events. A case study for river flows from three rivers in northwestern Tennessee is studied, and it is found that advection of WmSh from the Gulf of Mexico prevails while elsewhere, WmSh is generally very low during such extreme events. © 2013 The Authors. Environmetrics published by JohnWiley & Sons, Ltd. PMID:24223482

Estimating maximum instantaneous distortion from inlet total pressure rms and PSD measurements. [Root Mean Square and Power Spectral Density methods

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Melick, H. C., Jr.; Ybarra, A. H.; Bencze, D. P.

1975-01-01

An inexpensive method is developed to determine the extreme values of instantaneous inlet distortion. This method also provides insight into the basic mechanics of unsteady inlet flow and the associated engine reaction. The analysis is based on fundamental fluid dynamics and statistical methods to provide an understanding of the turbulent inlet flow and quantitatively relate the rms level and power spectral density (PSD) function of the measured time variant total pressure fluctuations to the strength and size of the low pressure regions. The most probable extreme value of the instantaneous distortion is then synthesized from this information in conjunction with the steady state distortion. Results of the analysis show the extreme values to be dependent upon the steady state distortion, the measured turbulence rms level and PSD function, the time on point, and the engine response characteristics. Analytical projections of instantaneous distortion are presented and compared with data obtained by a conventional, highly time correlated, 40 probe instantaneous pressure measurement system.

Laser waveform control of extreme ultraviolet high harmonics from solids.

PubMed

You, Yong Sing; Wu, Mengxi; Yin, Yanchun; Chew, Andrew; Ren, Xiaoming; Gholam-Mirzaei, Shima; Browne, Dana A; Chini, Michael; Chang, Zenghu; Schafer, Kenneth J; Gaarde, Mette B; Ghimire, Shambhu

2017-05-01

Solid-state high-harmonic sources offer the possibility of compact, high-repetition-rate attosecond light emitters. However, the time structure of high harmonics must be characterized at the sub-cycle level. We use strong two-cycle laser pulses to directly control the time-dependent nonlinear current in single-crystal MgO, leading to the generation of extreme ultraviolet harmonics. We find that harmonics are delayed with respect to each other, yielding an atto-chirp, the value of which depends on the laser field strength. Our results provide the foundation for attosecond pulse metrology based on solid-state harmonics and a new approach to studying sub-cycle dynamics in solids.

Extreme values in the Chinese and American stock markets based on detrended fluctuation analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cao, Guangxi; Zhang, Minjia

2015-10-01

This paper focuses on the comparative analysis of extreme values in the Chinese and American stock markets based on the detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) algorithm using the daily data of Shanghai composite index and Dow Jones Industrial Average. The empirical results indicate that the multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA) method is more objective than the traditional percentile method. The range of extreme value of Dow Jones Industrial Average is smaller than that of Shanghai composite index, and the extreme value of Dow Jones Industrial Average is more time clustering. The extreme value of the Chinese or American stock markets is concentrated in 2008, which is consistent with the financial crisis in 2008. Moreover, we investigate whether extreme events affect the cross-correlation between the Chinese and American stock markets using multifractal detrended cross-correlation analysis algorithm. The results show that extreme events have nothing to do with the cross-correlation between the Chinese and American stock markets.

Diagnostic accuracy of ultrasound in upper and lower extremity long bone fractures of emergency department trauma patients.

PubMed

Frouzan, Arash; Masoumi, Kambiz; Delirroyfard, Ali; Mazdaie, Behnaz; Bagherzadegan, Elnaz

2017-08-01

Long bone fractures are common injuries caused by trauma. Some studies have demonstrated that ultrasound has a high sensitivity and specificity in the diagnosis of upper and lower extremity long bone fractures. The aim of this study was to determine the accuracy of ultrasound compared with plain radiography in diagnosis of upper and lower extremity long bone fractures in traumatic patients. This cross-sectional study assessed 100 patients admitted to the emergency department of Imam Khomeini Hospital, Ahvaz, Iran with trauma to the upper and lower extremities, from September 2014 through October 2015. In all patients, first ultrasound and then standard plain radiography for the upper and lower limb was performed. Data were analyzed by SPSS version 21 to determine the specificity and sensitivity. The mean age of patients with upper and lower limb trauma were 31.43±12.32 years and 29.63±5.89 years, respectively. Radius fracture was the most frequent compared to other fractures (27%). Sensitivity, specificity, positive predicted value, and negative predicted value of ultrasound compared with plain radiography in the diagnosis of upper extremity long bones were 95.3%, 87.7%, 87.2% and 96.2%, respectively, and the highest accuracy was observed in left arm fractures (100%). Tibia and fibula fractures were the most frequent types compared to other fractures (89.2%). Sensitivity, specificity, PPV and NPV of ultrasound compared with plain radiography in the diagnosis of upper extremity long bone fractures were 98.6%, 83%, 65.4% and 87.1%, respectively, and the highest accuracy was observed in men, lower ages and femoral fractures. The results of this study showed that ultrasound compared with plain radiography has a high accuracy in the diagnosis of upper and lower extremity long bone fractures.

High northern latitude temperature extremes, 1400-1999

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tingley, M. P.; Huybers, P.; Hughen, K. A.

2009-12-01

There is often an interest in determining which interval features the most extreme value of a reconstructed climate field, such as the warmest year or decade in a temperature reconstruction. Previous approaches to this type of question have not fully accounted for the spatial and temporal covariance in the climate field when assessing the significance of extreme values. Here we present results from applying BARSAT, a new, Bayesian approach to reconstructing climate fields, to a 600 year multiproxy temperature data set that covers land areas between 45N and 85N. The end result of the analysis is an ensemble of spatially and temporally complete realizations of the temperature field, each of which is consistent with the observations and the estimated values of the parameters that define the assumed spatial and temporal covariance functions. In terms of the spatial average temperature, 1990-1999 was the warmest decade in the 1400-1999 interval in each of 2000 ensemble members, while 1995 was the warmest year in 98% of the ensemble members. A similar analysis at each node of a regular 5 degree grid gives insight into the spatial distribution of warm temperatures, and reveals that 1995 was anomalously warm in Eurasia, whereas 1998 featured extreme warmth in North America. In 70% of the ensemble members, 1601 featured the coldest spatial average, indicating that the eruption of Huaynaputina in Peru in 1600 (with a volcanic explosivity index of 6) had a major cooling impact on the high northern latitudes. Repeating this analysis at each node reveals the varying impacts of major volcanic eruptions on the distribution of extreme cooling. Finally, we use the ensemble to investigate extremes in the time evolution of centennial temperature trends, and find that in more than half the ensemble members, the greatest rate of change in the spatial mean time series was a cooling centered at 1600. The largest rate of centennial scale warming, however, occurred in the 20th Century in more than 98% of the ensemble members.

Stratospheric Smoke With Unprecedentedly High Backscatter Observed by Lidars Above Southern France

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khaykin, S. M.; Godin-Beekmann, S.; Hauchecorne, A.; Pelon, J.; Ravetta, F.; Keckhut, P.

2018-02-01

Extreme pyroconvection events triggered by wildfires in northwest Canada and United States during August 2017 resulted in vast injection of combustion products into the stratosphere. The plumes of stratospheric smoke were observed by lidars at Observatoire de Haute-Provence (OHP) for many weeks that followed the fires as distinct aerosol layers with backscatter reaching unprecedentedly high values for a nonvolcanic aerosol layer. We use spaceborne CALIOP lidar to track the spatiotemporal evolution of the smoke plumes before their detection at OHP. A remarkable agreement between ground- and spaced-based lidars sampling the same smoke plume on a particular date allowed us to extrapolate the OHP observations to a regional scale, where CALIOP reported extreme aerosol optical depth values as high as 0.21. On a monthly time scale, the lidar observations indicate that boreal summer 2017 forest fires had a hemisphere-scale impact on stratospheric aerosol load, similar to that of moderate volcanic eruptions.

Formant characteristics of human laughter.

PubMed

Szameitat, Diana P; Darwin, Chris J; Szameitat, André J; Wildgruber, Dirk; Alter, Kai

2011-01-01

Although laughter is an important aspect of nonverbal vocalization, its acoustic properties are still not fully understood. Extreme articulation during laughter production, such as wide jaw opening, suggests that laughter can have very high first formant (F(1)) frequencies. We measured fundamental frequency and formant frequencies of the vowels produced in the vocalic segments of laughter. Vocalic segments showed higher average F(1) frequencies than those previously reported and individual values could be as high as 1100 Hz for male speakers and 1500 Hz for female speakers. To our knowledge, these are the highest F(1) frequencies reported to date for human vocalizations, exceeding even the F(1) frequencies reported for trained soprano singers. These exceptionally high F(1) values are likely to be based on the extreme positions adopted by the vocal tract during laughter in combination with physiological constraints accompanying the production of a "pressed" voice. Copyright © 2011 The Voice Foundation. All rights reserved.

High temporal resolution of extreme rainfall rate variability and the acoustic classification of rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nystuen, Jeffrey A.; Amitai, Eyal

2003-04-01

The underwater sound generated by raindrop splashes on a water surface is loud and unique allowing detection, classification and quantification of rainfall. One of the advantages of the acoustic measurement is that the listening area, an effective catchment area, is proportional to the depth of the hydrophone and can be orders of magnitude greater than other in situ rain gauges. This feature allows high temporal resolution of the rainfall measurement. A series of rain events with extremely high rainfall rates, over 100 mm/hr, is examined acoustically. Rapid onset and cessation of rainfall intensity are detected within the convective cells of these storms with maximum 5-s resolution values exceeding 1000 mm/hr. The probability distribution functions (pdf) for rainfall rate occurrence and water volume using the longer temporal resolutions typical of other instruments do not include these extreme values. The variance of sound intensity within different acoustic frequency bands can be used as an aid to classify rainfall type. Objective acoustic classification algorithms are proposed. Within each rainfall classification the relationship between sound intensity and rainfall rate is nearly linear. The reflectivity factor, Z, also has a linear relationship with rainfall rate, R, for each rainfall classification.

Valuing happiness is associated with bipolar disorder.

PubMed

Ford, Brett Q; Mauss, Iris B; Gruber, June

2015-04-01

Although people who experience happiness tend to have better psychological health, people who value happiness to an extreme tend to have worse psychological health, including more depression. We propose that the extreme valuing of happiness may be a general risk factor for mood disturbances, both depressive and manic. To test this hypothesis, we examined the relationship between the extreme valuing of happiness and risk for, diagnosis of, and illness course for bipolar disorder (BD). Supporting our hypothesis, the extreme valuing of happiness was associated with a measure of increased risk for developing BD (Studies 1 and 2), increased likelihood of past diagnosis of BD (Studies 2 and 3), and worse prospective illness course in BD (Study 3), even when controlling for current mood symptoms (Studies 1-3). These findings indicate that the extreme valuing of happiness is associated with and even predicts BD. Taken together with previous evidence, these findings suggest that the extreme valuing of happiness is a general risk factor for mood disturbances. More broadly, what emotions people strive to feel may play a critical role in psychological health. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

Valuing happiness is associated with bipolar disorder

PubMed Central

Ford, Brett Q.; Mauss, Iris B.; Gruber, June

2015-01-01

While people who experience happiness tend to have better psychological health, people who value happiness to an extreme tend to have worse psychological health, including more depression. We propose that the extreme valuing of happiness may be a general risk factor for mood disturbances, both depressive and manic. To test this hypothesis, we examined the relationship between the extreme valuing of happiness and risk for, diagnosis of, and illness course for Bipolar Disorder (BD). Supporting our hypothesis, the extreme valuing of happiness was associated with a measure of increased risk for developing BD (Studies 1–2), increased likelihood of past diagnosis of BD (Studies 2–3), and worse prospective illness course in BD (Study 3), even when controlling for current mood symptoms (Studies 1–3). These findings indicate that the extreme valuing of happiness is associated with and even predicts BD. Taken together with previous evidence, these findings suggest that the extreme valuing of happiness is a general risk factor for mood disturbances. More broadly, what emotions people strive to feel may play a critical role in psychological health. PMID:25603134

Impact of possible climate changes on river runoff under different natural conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gusev, Yeugeniy M.; Nasonova, Olga N.; Kovalev, Evgeny E.; Ayzel, Georgy V.

2018-06-01

The present study was carried out within the framework of the International Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP) for 11 large river basins located in different continents of the globe under a wide variety of natural conditions. The aim of the study was to investigate possible changes in various characteristics of annual river runoff (mean values, standard deviations, frequency of extreme annual runoff) up to 2100 on the basis of application of the land surface model SWAP and meteorological projections simulated by five General Circulation Models (GCMs) according to four RCP scenarios. Analysis of the obtained results has shown that changes in climatic runoff are different (both in magnitude and sign) for the river basins located in different regions of the planet due to differences in natural (primarily climatic) conditions. The climatic elasticities of river runoff to changes in air temperature and precipitation were estimated that makes it possible, as the first approximation, to project changes in climatic values of annual runoff, using the projected changes in mean annual air temperature and annual precipitation for the river basins. It was found that for most rivers under study, the frequency of occurrence of extreme runoff values increases. This is true both for extremely high runoff (when the projected climatic runoff increases) and for extremely low values (when the projected climatic runoff decreases).

Natural Hazards characterisation in industrial practice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bernardara, Pietro

2017-04-01

The definition of rare hydroclimatic extremes (up to 10-4 annual probability of occurrence) is of the utmost importance for the design of high value industrial infrastructures, such as grids, power plants, offshore platforms. The underestimation as well as the overestimation of the risk may lead to huge costs (ex. mid-life expensive works or overdesign) which may even prevent the project to happen. Nevertheless, the uncertainty associated to the extrapolation towards the rare frequencies are huge and manifold. They are mainly due to the scarcity of observations, the lack of quality on the extreme value records and on the arbitrary choice of the models used for extrapolations. This often put the design engineers in uncomfortable situations when they must choose the design values to use. Providentially, the recent progresses in the earth observation techniques, information technology, historical data collection and weather and ocean modelling are making huge datasets available. A careful use of big datasets of observations and modelled data are leading towards a better understanding of the physics of the underlying phenomena, the complex interactions between them and thus of the extreme events frequency extrapolations. This will move the engineering practice from the single site, small sample, application of statistical analysis to a more spatially coherent, physically driven extrapolation of extreme values. Few examples, from the EDF industrial practice are given to illustrate these progresses and their potential impact on the design approaches.

Extremely high efficiency phosphorescent organic light-emitting diodes with horizontal emitting dipoles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Kwon-Hyeon; Moon, Chang-Ki; Lee, Jeong-Hwan; Kim, Jang-Joo

2014-10-01

We present the factors influencing the orientation of the phosphorescent dyes in phosphorescent OLEDs. And, we report that an OLED containing a phosphorescent emitter with horizontally oriented dipoles in an exciplex-forming co-host that exhibits an extremely high EQE of 32.3% and power efficiency of 142 lm/W, the highest values ever reported in literature. Furthermore, we experimentally and theoretically correlated the EQE of OLEDs to the PL quantum yield and the horizontal dipole ratio of phosphorescent dyes using three different dyes.

Solutions for Critical Raw Materials under Extreme Conditions: A Review

PubMed Central

Grilli, Maria Luisa; Bellezze, Tiziano; Gamsjäger, Ernst; Rinaldi, Antonio; Novak, Pavel; Balos, Sebastian; Piticescu, Radu Robert; Ruello, Maria Letizia

2017-01-01

In Europe, many technologies with high socio-economic benefits face materials requirements that are often affected by demand-supply disruption. This paper offers an overview of critical raw materials in high value alloys and metal-matrix composites used in critical applications, such as energy, transportation and machinery manufacturing associated with extreme working conditions in terms of temperature, loading, friction, wear and corrosion. The goal is to provide perspectives about the reduction and/or substitution of selected critical raw materials: Co, W, Cr, Nb and Mg. PMID:28772645

The critical role of uncertainty in projections of hydrological extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meresa, Hadush K.; Romanowicz, Renata J.

2017-08-01

This paper aims to quantify the uncertainty in projections of future hydrological extremes in the Biala Tarnowska River at Koszyce gauging station, south Poland. The approach followed is based on several climate projections obtained from the EURO-CORDEX initiative, raw and bias-corrected realizations of catchment precipitation, and flow simulations derived using multiple hydrological model parameter sets. The projections cover the 21st century. Three sources of uncertainty are considered: one related to climate projection ensemble spread, the second related to the uncertainty in hydrological model parameters and the third related to the error in fitting theoretical distribution models to annual extreme flow series. The uncertainty of projected extreme indices related to hydrological model parameters was conditioned on flow observations from the reference period using the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) approach, with separate criteria for high- and low-flow extremes. Extreme (low and high) flow quantiles were estimated using the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution at different return periods and were based on two different lengths of the flow time series. A sensitivity analysis based on the analysis of variance (ANOVA) shows that the uncertainty introduced by the hydrological model parameters can be larger than the climate model variability and the distribution fit uncertainty for the low-flow extremes whilst for the high-flow extremes higher uncertainty is observed from climate models than from hydrological parameter and distribution fit uncertainties. This implies that ignoring one of the three uncertainty sources may cause great risk to future hydrological extreme adaptations and water resource planning and management.

MAGNESIUM ISOTOPE RATIOS IN {omega} CENTAURI RED GIANTS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Da Costa, G. S.; Norris, John E.; Yong, David

2013-05-20

We have used the high-resolution observations obtained at the Anglo-Australian Telescope with Ultra-High Resolution Facility (R {approx} 100,000) and at Gemini-S with b-HROS (R {approx} 150,000) to determine magnesium isotope ratios for seven {omega} Cen red giants that cover a range in iron abundance from [Fe/H] = -1.78 to -0.78 dex, and for two red giants in M4 (NGC 6121). The {omega} Cen stars sample both the ''primordial'' (i.e., O-rich, Na- and Al-poor) and the ''extreme'' (O-depleted, Na- and Al-rich) populations in the cluster. The primordial population stars in both {omega} Cen and M4 show ({sup 25}Mg, {sup 26}Mg)/{sup 24}Mgmore » isotopic ratios that are consistent with those found for the primordial population in other globular clusters with similar [Fe/H] values. The isotopic ratios for the {omega} Cen extreme stars are also consistent with those for extreme population stars in other clusters. The results for the extreme population stars studied indicate that the {sup 26}Mg/{sup 24}Mg ratio is highest at intermediate metallicities ([Fe/H] < -1.4 dex), and for the highest [Al/Fe] values. Further, the relative abundance of {sup 26}Mg in the extreme population stars is notably higher than that of {sup 25}Mg, in contrast to model predictions. The {sup 25}Mg/{sup 24}Mg isotopic ratio in fact does not show any obvious dependence on either [Fe/H] or [Al/Fe] nor, intriguingly, any obvious difference between the primordial and extreme population stars.« less

WRF model sensitivity to land surface model and cumulus parameterization under short-term climate extremes over the southern Great Plains of the United States

Treesearch

Lisi Pei; Nathan Moore; Shiyuan Zhong; Lifeng Luo; David W. Hyndman; Warren E. Heilman; Zhiqiu Gao

2014-01-01

Extreme weather and climate events, especially short-term excessive drought and wet periods over agricultural areas, have received increased attention. The Southern Great Plains (SGP) is one of the largest agricultural regions in North America and features the underlying Ogallala-High Plains Aquifer system worth great economic value in large part due to production...

Estimating the extreme low-temperature event using nonparametric methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

D'Silva, Anisha

This thesis presents a new method of estimating the one-in-N low temperature threshold using a non-parametric statistical method called kernel density estimation applied to daily average wind-adjusted temperatures. We apply our One-in-N Algorithm to local gas distribution companies (LDCs), as they have to forecast the daily natural gas needs of their consumers. In winter, demand for natural gas is high. Extreme low temperature events are not directly related to an LDCs gas demand forecasting, but knowledge of extreme low temperatures is important to ensure that an LDC has enough capacity to meet customer demands when extreme low temperatures are experienced. We present a detailed explanation of our One-in-N Algorithm and compare it to the methods using the generalized extreme value distribution, the normal distribution, and the variance-weighted composite distribution. We show that our One-in-N Algorithm estimates the one-in- N low temperature threshold more accurately than the methods using the generalized extreme value distribution, the normal distribution, and the variance-weighted composite distribution according to root mean square error (RMSE) measure at a 5% level of significance. The One-in- N Algorithm is tested by counting the number of times the daily average wind-adjusted temperature is less than or equal to the one-in- N low temperature threshold.

Extreme-value dependence: An application to exchange rate markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fernandez, Viviana

2007-04-01

Extreme value theory (EVT) focuses on modeling the tail behavior of a loss distribution using only extreme values rather than the whole data set. For a sample of 10 countries with dirty/free float regimes, we investigate whether paired currencies exhibit a pattern of asymptotic dependence. That is, whether an extremely large appreciation or depreciation in the nominal exchange rate of one country might transmit to another. In general, after controlling for volatility clustering and inertia in returns, we do not find evidence of extreme-value dependence between paired exchange rates. However, for asymptotic-independent paired returns, we find that tail dependency of exchange rates is stronger under large appreciations than under large depreciations.

Exchangeability, extreme returns and Value-at-Risk forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Chun-Kai; North, Delia; Zewotir, Temesgen

2017-07-01

In this paper, we propose a new approach to extreme value modelling for the forecasting of Value-at-Risk (VaR). In particular, the block maxima and the peaks-over-threshold methods are generalised to exchangeable random sequences. This caters for the dependencies, such as serial autocorrelation, of financial returns observed empirically. In addition, this approach allows for parameter variations within each VaR estimation window. Empirical prior distributions of the extreme value parameters are attained by using resampling procedures. We compare the results of our VaR forecasts to that of the unconditional extreme value theory (EVT) approach and the conditional GARCH-EVT model for robust conclusions.

Plant responses to extreme climatic events: a field test of resilience capacity at the southern range edge.

PubMed

Herrero, Asier; Zamora, Regino

2014-01-01

The expected and already observed increment in frequency of extreme climatic events may result in severe vegetation shifts. However, stabilizing mechanisms promoting community resilience can buffer the lasting impact of extreme events. The present work analyzes the resilience of a Mediterranean mountain ecosystem after an extreme drought in 2005, examining shoot-growth and needle-length resistance and resilience of dominant tree and shrub species (Pinus sylvestris vs Juniperus communis, and P. nigra vs J. oxycedrus) in two contrasting altitudinal ranges. Recorded high vegetative-resilience values indicate great tolerance to extreme droughts for the dominant species of pine-juniper woodlands. Observed tolerance could act as a stabilizing mechanism in rear range edges, such as the Mediterranean basin, where extreme events are predicted to be more detrimental and recurrent. However, resistance and resilience components vary across species, sites, and ontogenetic states: adult Pinus showed higher growth resistance than did adult Juniperus; saplings displayed higher recovery rates than did conspecific adults; and P. nigra saplings displayed higher resilience than did P. sylvestris saplings where the two species coexist. P. nigra and J. oxycedrus saplings at high and low elevations, respectively, were the most resilient at all the locations studied. Under recurrent extreme droughts, these species-specific differences in resistance and resilience could promote changes in vegetation structure and composition, even in areas with high tolerance to dry conditions.

Plant Responses to Extreme Climatic Events: A Field Test of Resilience Capacity at the Southern Range Edge

PubMed Central

Herrero, Asier; Zamora, Regino

2014-01-01

The expected and already observed increment in frequency of extreme climatic events may result in severe vegetation shifts. However, stabilizing mechanisms promoting community resilience can buffer the lasting impact of extreme events. The present work analyzes the resilience of a Mediterranean mountain ecosystem after an extreme drought in 2005, examining shoot-growth and needle-length resistance and resilience of dominant tree and shrub species (Pinus sylvestris vs Juniperus communis, and P. nigra vs J. oxycedrus) in two contrasting altitudinal ranges. Recorded high vegetative-resilience values indicate great tolerance to extreme droughts for the dominant species of pine-juniper woodlands. Observed tolerance could act as a stabilizing mechanism in rear range edges, such as the Mediterranean basin, where extreme events are predicted to be more detrimental and recurrent. However, resistance and resilience components vary across species, sites, and ontogenetic states: adult Pinus showed higher growth resistance than did adult Juniperus; saplings displayed higher recovery rates than did conspecific adults; and P. nigra saplings displayed higher resilience than did P. sylvestris saplings where the two species coexist. P. nigra and J. oxycedrus saplings at high and low elevations, respectively, were the most resilient at all the locations studied. Under recurrent extreme droughts, these species-specific differences in resistance and resilience could promote changes in vegetation structure and composition, even in areas with high tolerance to dry conditions. PMID:24489971

A New Integrated Threshold Selection Methodology for Spatial Forecast Verification of Extreme Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kholodovsky, V.

2017-12-01

Extreme weather and climate events such as heavy precipitation, heat waves and strong winds can cause extensive damage to the society in terms of human lives and financial losses. As climate changes, it is important to understand how extreme weather events may change as a result. Climate and statistical models are often independently used to model those phenomena. To better assess performance of the climate models, a variety of spatial forecast verification methods have been developed. However, spatial verification metrics that are widely used in comparing mean states, in most cases, do not have an adequate theoretical justification to benchmark extreme weather events. We proposed a new integrated threshold selection methodology for spatial forecast verification of extreme events that couples existing pattern recognition indices with high threshold choices. This integrated approach has three main steps: 1) dimension reduction; 2) geometric domain mapping; and 3) thresholds clustering. We apply this approach to an observed precipitation dataset over CONUS. The results are evaluated by displaying threshold distribution seasonally, monthly and annually. The method offers user the flexibility of selecting a high threshold that is linked to desired geometrical properties. The proposed high threshold methodology could either complement existing spatial verification methods, where threshold selection is arbitrary, or be directly applicable in extreme value theory.

Changes in extremely hot days under stabilized 1.5 and 2.0 °C global warming scenarios as simulated by the HAPPI multi-model ensemble

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wehner, Michael; Stone, Dáithí; Mitchell, Dann; Shiogama, Hideo; Fischer, Erich; Graff, Lise S.; Kharin, Viatcheslav V.; Lierhammer, Ludwig; Sanderson, Benjamin; Krishnan, Harinarayan

2018-03-01

The half a degree additional warming, prognosis and projected impacts (HAPPI) experimental protocol provides a multi-model database to compare the effects of stabilizing anthropogenic global warming of 1.5 °C over preindustrial levels to 2.0 °C over these levels. The HAPPI experiment is based upon large ensembles of global atmospheric models forced by sea surface temperature and sea ice concentrations plausible for these stabilization levels. This paper examines changes in extremes of high temperatures averaged over three consecutive days. Changes in this measure of extreme temperature are also compared to changes in hot season temperatures. We find that over land this measure of extreme high temperature increases from about 0.5 to 1.5 °C over present-day values in the 1.5 °C stabilization scenario, depending on location and model. We further find an additional 0.25 to 1.0 °C increase in extreme high temperatures over land in the 2.0 °C stabilization scenario. Results from the HAPPI models are consistent with similar results from the one available fully coupled climate model. However, a complicating factor in interpreting extreme temperature changes across the HAPPI models is their diversity of aerosol forcing changes.

Individual Traits, Personal Values, and Conflict Resolution in an Isolated, Confined, Extreme Environment.

PubMed

Corneliussen, Jesper G; Leon, Gloria R; Kjærgaard, Anders; Fink, Birgit A; Venables, Noah C

2017-06-01

The study of personality traits, personal values, and the emergence of conflicts within groups performing in an isolated, confined, and extreme environment (ICE) may provide insights helpful for the composition and support of space crews for long duration missions. Studied pre/post and over the 2-yr period of the investigation were 10 Danish military personnel deployed to stations in Greenland on a 26-mo staggered rotation. Subjects completed the NEO PI-R, Triarchic Psychopathy Measure, and Portrait Values Questionnaire, and participated in structured interviews. During deployment, questionnaires were completed biweekly and a cognitive function test once a month. Personality findings indicated a generally well-adjusted group, above average in positive personality traits [Conscientiousness T-score = 59.4 (11.41); Agreeableness T-score = 54.4 (9.36)] and boldness. Personal values of benevolence and self-direction were highly rated. The decision when to "pick sides" and intervene during disagreements between group members was viewed as an important component of conflict resolution. There were no changes in positive/negative affect or cognitive function over the annual light/dark cycle. The personal values of group members appear highly compatible for living in a small group ICE environment for an extended period. Disagreements between group members impact the functioning of the entire group, particularly in regard to decisions whether to support one of the individuals or let the argument run its course. Extended training in strategies for conflict resolution are needed in planning for future long duration missions to avoid fault lines forming within the group.Corneliussen JG, Leon GR, Kjærgaard A, Fink BA, Venables NC. Individual traits, personal values, and conflict resolution in an isolated, confined, extreme environment. Aerosp Med Hum Perform. 2017; 88(6):535-543.

When personality and culture clash: the psychological distress of allocentrics in an individualist culture and idiocentrics in a collectivist culture.

PubMed

Caldwell-Harris, Catherine L; Ayçiçegi, Ayse

2006-09-01

Because humans need both autonomy and interdependence, persons with either an extreme collectivist orientation (allocentrics) or extreme individualist values (idiocentrics) may be at risk for possession of some features of psychopathology. Is an extreme personality style a risk factor primarily when it conflicts with the values of the surrounding society? Individualism-collectivism scenarios and a battery of clinical and personality scales were administered to nonclinical samples of college students in Boston and Istanbul. For students residing in a highly individualistic society (Boston), collectivism scores were positively correlated with depression, social anxiety, obsessive-compulsive disorder and dependent personality. Individualism scores, particularly horizontal individualism, were negatively correlated with these same scales. A different pattern was obtained for students residing in a collectivist culture, Istanbul. Here individualism (and especially horizontal individualism) was positively correlated with scales for paranoid, schizoid, narcissistic, borderline and antisocial personality disorder. Collectivism (particularly vertical collectivism) was associated with low report of symptoms on these scales. These results indicate that having a personality style which conflicts with the values of society is associated with psychiatric symptoms. Having an orientation inconsistent with societal values may thus be a risk factor for poor mental health.

Will climate change increase the risk for critical infrastructure failures in Europe due to extreme precipitation?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nissen, Katrin; Ulbrich, Uwe

2016-04-01

An event based detection algorithm for extreme precipitation is applied to a multi-model ensemble of regional climate model simulations. The algorithm determines extent, location, duration and severity of extreme precipitation events. We assume that precipitation in excess of the local present-day 10-year return value will potentially exceed the capacity of the drainage systems that protect critical infrastructure elements. This assumption is based on legislation for the design of drainage systems which is in place in many European countries. Thus, events exceeding the local 10-year return value are detected. In this study we distinguish between sub-daily events (3 hourly) with high precipitation intensities and long-duration events (1-3 days) with high precipitation amounts. The climate change simulations investigated here were conducted within the EURO-CORDEX framework and exhibit a horizontal resolution of approximately 12.5 km. The period between 1971-2100 forced with observed and scenario (RCP 8.5 and RCP 4.5) greenhouse gas concentrations was analysed. Examined are changes in event frequency, event duration and size. The simulations show an increase in the number of extreme precipitation events for the future climate period over most of the area, which is strongest in Northern Europe. Strength and statistical significance of the signal increase with increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. This work has been conducted within the EU project RAIN (Risk Analysis of Infrastructure Networks in response to extreme weather).

Statistic analysis of annual total ozone extremes for the period 1964-1988

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Krzyscin, Janusz W.

1994-01-01

Annual extremes of total column amount of ozone (in the period 1964-1988) from a network of 29 Dobson stations have been examined using the extreme value analysis. The extremes have been calculated as the highest deviation of daily mean total ozone from its long-term monthly mean, normalized by the monthly standard deviations. The extremes have been selected from the direct-Sun total ozone observations only. The extremes resulting from abrupt changes in ozone (day to day changes greater than 20 percent) have not been considered. The ordered extremes (maxima in ascending way, minima in descending way) have been fitted to one of three forms of the Fisher-Tippet extreme value distribution by the nonlinear least square method (Levenberg-Marguard method). We have found that the ordered extremes from a majority of Dobson stations lie close to Fisher-Tippet type III. The extreme value analysis of the composite annual extremes (combined from averages of the annual extremes selected at individual stations) has shown that the composite maxima are fitted by the Fisher-Tippet type III and the composite minima by the Fisher-Tippet type I. The difference between the Fisher-Tippet types of the composite extremes seems to be related to the ozone downward trend. Extreme value prognoses for the period 1964-2014 (derived from the data taken at: all analyzed stations, the North American, and the European stations) have revealed that the prognostic extremes are close to the largest annual extremes in the period 1964-1988 and there are only small regional differences in the prognoses.

Extreme air-sea surface turbulent fluxes in mid latitudes - estimation, origins and mechanisms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gulev, Sergey; Natalia, Tilinina

2014-05-01

Extreme turbulent heat fluxes in the North Atlantic and North Pacific mid latitudes were estimated from the modern era and first generation reanalyses (NCEP-DOE, ERA-Interim, MERRA NCEP-CFSR, JRA-25) for the period from 1979 onwards. We used direct surface turbulent flux output as well as reanalysis state variables from which fluxes have been computed using COARE-3 bulk algorithm. For estimation of extreme flux values we analyzed surface flux probability density distribution which was approximated by Modified Fisher-Tippett distribution. In all reanalyses extreme turbulent heat fluxes amount to 1500-2000 W/m2 (for the 99th percentile) and can exceed 2000 W/m2 for higher percentiles in the western boundary current extension (WBCE) regions. Different reanalyses show significantly different shape of MFT distribution, implying considerable differences in the estimates of extreme fluxes. The highest extreme turbulent latent heat fluxes are diagnosed in NCEP-DOE, ERA-Interim and NCEP-CFSR reanalyses with the smallest being in MERRA. These differences may not necessarily reflect the differences in mean values. Analysis shows that differences in statistical properties of the state variables are the major source of differences in the shape of PDF of fluxes and in the estimates of extreme fluxes while the contribution of computational schemes used in different reanalyses is minor. The strongest differences in the characteristics of probability distributions of surface fluxes and extreme surface flux values between different reanalyses are found in the WBCE extension regions and high latitudes. In the next instance we analyzed the mechanisms responsible for forming surface turbulent fluxes and their potential role in changes of midlatitudinal heat balance. Midlatitudinal cyclones were considered as the major mechanism responsible for extreme turbulent fluxes which are typically occur during the cold air outbreaks in the rear parts of cyclones when atmospheric conditions provide locally high winds and air-sea temperature gradients. For this purpose we linked characteristics of cyclone activity over the midlatitudinal oceans with the extreme surface turbulent heat fluxes. Cyclone tracks and parameters of cyclone life cycle (deepening rates, propagation velocities, life time and clustering) were derived from the same reanalyses using state of the art numerical tracking algorithm. The main questions addressed in this study are (i) through which mechanisms extreme surface fluxes are associated with cyclone activity? and (ii) which types of cyclones are responsible for forming extreme turbulent fluxes? Our analysis shows that extreme surface fluxes are typically associated not with cyclones themselves but rather with cyclone-anticyclone interaction zones. This implies that North Atlantic and North Pacific series of intense cyclones do not result in the anomalous surface fluxes. Alternatively, extreme fluxes are most frequently associated with blocking situations, particularly with the intensification of the Siberian and North American Anticyclones providing cold-air outbreaks over WBC regions.

Superconducting RF R&D | Technical Division

Science.gov Websites

Doping Contact: Anna Grassellino annag High quality factors (Q) are extremely important to accelerators with high duty factor, due to the infrastructure and operating costs of the cryogenic plant. In 2012, a process was discovered at FNAL to achieve unprecedented Q values by treating them in a high temperature

On the impacts of computing daily temperatures as the average of the daily minimum and maximum temperatures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Villarini, Gabriele; Khouakhi, Abdou; Cunningham, Evan

2017-12-01

Daily temperature values are generally computed as the average of the daily minimum and maximum observations, which can lead to biases in the estimation of daily averaged values. This study examines the impacts of these biases on the calculation of climatology and trends in temperature extremes at 409 sites in North America with at least 25 years of complete hourly records. Our results show that the calculation of daily temperature based on the average of minimum and maximum daily readings leads to an overestimation of the daily values of 10+ % when focusing on extremes and values above (below) high (low) thresholds. Moreover, the effects of the data processing method on trend estimation are generally small, even though the use of the daily minimum and maximum readings reduces the power of trend detection ( 5-10% fewer trends detected in comparison with the reference data).

Impact of increasing heat waves on U.S. ozone episodes in the 2050s: Results from a multimodel analysis using extreme value theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shen, L.; Mickley, L. J.; Gilleland, E.

2016-04-01

We develop a statistical model using extreme value theory to estimate the 2000-2050 changes in ozone episodes across the United States. We model the relationships between daily maximum temperature (Tmax) and maximum daily 8 h average (MDA8) ozone in May-September over 2003-2012 using a Point Process (PP) model. At ~20% of the sites, a marked decrease in the ozone-temperature slope occurs at high temperatures, defined as ozone suppression. The PP model sometimes fails to capture ozone-Tmax relationships, so we refit the ozone-Tmax slope using logistic regression and a generalized Pareto distribution model. We then apply the resulting hybrid-extreme value theory model to projections of Tmax from an ensemble of downscaled climate models. Assuming constant anthropogenic emissions at the present level, we find an average increase of 2.3 d a-1 in ozone episodes (>75 ppbv) across the United States by the 2050s, with a change of +3-9 d a-1 at many sites.

Extreme storm surge and wind wave climate scenario simulations at the Venetian littoral

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lionello, P.; Galati, M. B.; Elvini, E.

Scenario climate projections for extreme marine storms producing storm surges and wind waves are very important for the northern flat coast of the Adriatic Sea, where the area at risk includes a unique cultural and environmental heritage, and important economic activities. This study uses a shallow water model and a spectral wave model for computing the storm surge and the wind wave field, respectively, from the sea level pressure and wind fields that have been computed by the RegCM regional climate model. Simulations cover the period 1961-1990 for the present climate (control simulations) and the period 2071-2100 for the A2 and B2 scenarios. Generalized Extreme Value analysis is used for estimating values for the 10 and 100 year return times. The adequacy of these modeling tools for a reliable estimation of the climate change signal, without needing further downscaling is shown. However, this study has mainly a methodological value, because issues such as interdecadal variability and intermodel variability cannot be addressed, since the analysis is based on single model 30-year long simulations. The control simulation looks reasonably accurate for extreme value analysis, though it overestimates/underestimates the frequency of high/low surge and wind wave events with respect to observations. Scenario simulations suggest higher frequency of intense storms for the B2 scenario, but not for the A2. Likely, these differences are not the effect of climate change, but of climate multidecadal variability. Extreme storms are stronger in future scenarios, but differences are not statistically significant. Therefore this study does not provide convincing evidence for more stormy conditions in future scenarios.

Persistence analysis of extreme CO, NO2 and O3 concentrations in ambient air of Delhi

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chelani, Asha B.

2012-05-01

Persistence analysis of air pollutant concentration and corresponding exceedance time series is carried out to examine for temporal evolution. For this purpose, air pollutant concentrations, namely, CO, NO2 and O3 observed during 2000-2009 at a traffic site in Delhi are analyzed using detrended fluctuation analysis. Two types of extreme values are analyzed; exceeded concentrations to a threshold provided by national pollution controlling agency and time interval between two exceedances. The time series of three pollutants is observed to possess persistence property whereas the extreme value time series of only primary pollutant concentrations is found to be persistent. Two time scaling regions are observed to be significant in extreme time series of CO and NO2, mainly attributed to implementation of CNG in vehicles. The presence of persistence in three pollutant concentration time series is linked to the property of self-organized criticality. The observed persistence in the time interval between two exceeded levels is a matter of concern as persistent high concentrations can trigger health problems.

Rainfall extremes from TRMM data and the Metastatistical Extreme Value Distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zorzetto, Enrico; Marani, Marco

2017-04-01

A reliable quantification of the probability of weather extremes occurrence is essential for designing resilient water infrastructures and hazard mitigation measures. However, it is increasingly clear that the presence of inter-annual climatic fluctuations determines a substantial long-term variability in the frequency of occurrence of extreme events. This circumstance questions the foundation of the traditional extreme value theory, hinged on stationary Poisson processes or on asymptotic assumptions to derive the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution. We illustrate here, with application to daily rainfall, a new approach to extreme value analysis, the Metastatistical Extreme Value Distribution (MEVD). The MEVD relaxes the above assumptions and is based on the whole distribution of daily rainfall events, thus allowing optimal use of all available observations. Using a global dataset of rain gauge observations, we show that the MEVD significantly outperforms the Generalized Extreme Value distribution, particularly for long average recurrence intervals and when small samples are available. The latter property suggests MEVD to be particularly suited for applications to satellite rainfall estimates, which only cover two decades, thus making extreme value estimation extremely challenging. Here we apply MEVD to the TRMM TMPA 3B42 product, an 18-year dataset of remotely-sensed daily rainfall providing a quasi-global coverage. Our analyses yield a global scale mapping of daily rainfall extremes and of their distributional tail properties, bridging the existing large gaps in ground-based networks. Finally, we illustrate how our global-scale analysis can provide insight into how properties of local rainfall regimes affect tail estimation uncertainty when using the GEV or MEVD approach. We find a dependence of the estimation uncertainty, for both the GEV- and MEV-based approaches, on the average annual number and on the inter-annual variability of rainy days. In particular, estimation uncertainty decreases 1) as the mean annual number of wet days increases, and 2) as the variability in the number of rainy days, expressed by its coefficient of variation, decreases. We tentatively explain this behavior in terms of the assumptions underlying the two approaches.

The added value of convection permitting simulations of extreme precipitation events over the eastern Mediterranean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zittis, G.; Bruggeman, A.; Camera, C.; Hadjinicolaou, P.; Lelieveld, J.

2017-07-01

Climate change is expected to substantially influence precipitation amounts and distribution. To improve simulations of extreme rainfall events, we analyzed the performance of different convection and microphysics parameterizations of the WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting) model at very high horizontal resolutions (12, 4 and 1 km). Our study focused on the eastern Mediterranean climate change hot-spot. Five extreme rainfall events over Cyprus were identified from observations and were dynamically downscaled from the ERA-Interim (EI) dataset with WRF. We applied an objective ranking scheme, using a 1-km gridded observational dataset over Cyprus and six different performance metrics, to investigate the skill of the WRF configurations. We evaluated the rainfall timing and amounts for the different resolutions, and discussed the observational uncertainty over the particular extreme events by comparing three gridded precipitation datasets (E-OBS, APHRODITE and CHIRPS). Simulations with WRF capture rainfall over the eastern Mediterranean reasonably well for three of the five selected extreme events. For these three cases, the WRF simulations improved the ERA-Interim data, which strongly underestimate the rainfall extremes over Cyprus. The best model performance is obtained for the January 1989 event, simulated with an average bias of 4% and a modified Nash-Sutcliff of 0.72 for the 5-member ensemble of the 1-km simulations. We found overall added value for the convection-permitting simulations, especially over regions of high-elevation. Interestingly, for some cases the intermediate 4-km nest was found to outperform the 1-km simulations for low-elevation coastal parts of Cyprus. Finally, we identified significant and inconsistent discrepancies between the three, state of the art, gridded precipitation datasets for the tested events, highlighting the observational uncertainty in the region.

Determining octanol-water partition coefficients for extremely hydrophobic chemicals by combining "slow stirring" and solid-phase microextraction.

PubMed

Jonker, Michiel T O

2016-06-01

Octanol-water partition coefficients (KOW ) are widely used in fate and effects modeling of chemicals. Still, high-quality experimental KOW data are scarce, in particular for very hydrophobic chemicals. This hampers reliable assessments of several fate and effect parameters and the development and validation of new models. One reason for the limited availability of experimental values may relate to the challenging nature of KOW measurements. In the present study, KOW values for 13 polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons were determined with the gold standard "slow-stirring" method (log KOW 4.6-7.2). These values were then used as reference data for the development of an alternative method for measuring KOW . This approach combined slow stirring and equilibrium sampling of the extremely low aqueous concentrations with polydimethylsiloxane-coated solid-phase microextraction fibers, applying experimentally determined fiber-water partition coefficients. It resulted in KOW values matching the slow-stirring data very well. Therefore, the method was subsequently applied to a series of 17 moderately to extremely hydrophobic petrochemical compounds. The obtained KOW values spanned almost 6 orders of magnitude, with the highest value measuring 10(10.6) . The present study demonstrates that the hydrophobicity domain within which experimental KOW measurements are possible can be extended with the help of solid-phase microextraction and that experimentally determined KOW values can exceed the proposed upper limit of 10(9) . Environ Toxicol Chem 2016;35:1371-1377. © 2015 SETAC. © 2015 SETAC.

Factors affecting the 7Be surface concentration and its extremely high occurrences over the Scandinavian Peninsula during autumn and winter.

PubMed

Ajtić, J; Brattich, E; Sarvan, D; Djurdjevic, V; Hernández-Ceballos, M A

2018-05-01

Relationships between the beryllium-7 activity concentrations in surface air and meteorological parameters (temperature, atmospheric pressure, and precipitation), teleconnection indices (Arctic Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation, and Scandinavian pattern) and number of sunspots are investigated using two multivariate statistical techniques: hierarchical cluster and factor analysis. The beryllium-7 surface measurements over 1995-2011, at four sampling sites located in the Scandinavian Peninsula, are obtained from the Radioactivity Environmental Monitoring Database. In all sites, the statistical analyses show that the beryllium-7 concentrations are strongly linked to temperature. Although the beryllium-7 surface concentration exhibits the well-characterised spring/summer maximum, our study shows that extremely high beryllium-7 concentrations, defined as the values exceeding the 90 th percentile in the data records for each site, also occur over the October-March period. Two types of autumn/winter extremes are distinguished: type-1 when the number of extremes in a given month is less than three, and type-2 when at least three extremes occur in a month. Factor analysis performed for these autumn/winter events shows a weaker effect of temperature and a stronger impact of the transport and production signal on the beryllium-7 concentrations. Further, the majority of the type-2 extremes are associated with a very high monthly Scandinavian teleconnection index. The type-2 extremes that occurred in January, February and March are also linked to sudden stratospheric warmings of the Arctic vortex. Our results indicate that the Scandinavian teleconnection index might be a good indicator of the meteorological conditions facilitating extremely high beryllium-7 surface concentrations over Scandinavia during autumn and winter. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The shouted voice: A pilot study of laryngeal physiology under extreme aerodynamic pressure.

PubMed

Lagier, Aude; Legou, Thierry; Galant, Camille; Amy de La Bretèque, Benoit; Meynadier, Yohann; Giovanni, Antoine

2017-12-01

The objective was to study the behavior of the larynx during shouted voice production, when the larynx is exposed to extremely high subglottic pressure. The study involved electroglottographic, acoustic, and aerodynamic analyses of shouts produced at maximum effort by three male participants. Under a normal speaking voice, the voice sound pressure level (SPL) is proportional to the subglottic pressure. However, when the subglottic pressure reached high levels, the voice SPL reached a maximum value and then decreased as subglottic pressure increased further. Furthermore, the electroglottographic signal sometimes lost its periodicity during the shout, suggesting irregular vocal fold vibration.

The Imprint of Extreme Climate Events in Century-Long Time Series of Wood Anatomical Traits in High-Elevation Conifers

PubMed Central

Carrer, Marco; Brunetti, Michele; Castagneri, Daniele

2016-01-01

Extreme climate events are of key importance for forest ecosystems. However, both the inherent infrequency, stochasticity and multiplicity of extreme climate events, and the array of biological responses, challenges investigations. To cope with the long life cycle of trees and the paucity of the extreme events themselves, our inferences should be based on long-term observations. In this context, tree rings and the related xylem anatomical traits represent promising sources of information, due to the wide time perspective and quality of the information they can provide. Here we test, on two high-elevation conifers (Larix decidua and Picea abies sampled at 2100 m a.s.l. in the Eastern Alps), the associations among temperature extremes during the growing season and xylem anatomical traits, specifically the number of cells per ring (CN), cell wall thickness (CWT), and cell diameter (CD). To better track the effect of extreme events over the growing season, tree rings were partitioned in 10 sectors. Climate variability has been reconstructed, for 1800–2011 at monthly resolution and for 1926–2011 at daily resolution, by exploiting the excellent availability of very long and high quality instrumental records available for the surrounding area, and taking into account the relationship between meteorological variables and site topographical settings. Summer temperature influenced anatomical traits of both species, and tree-ring anatomical profiles resulted as being associated to temperature extremes. Most of the extreme values in anatomical traits occurred with warm (positive extremes) or cold (negative) conditions. However, 0–34% of occurrences did not match a temperature extreme event. Specifically, CWT and CN extremes were more clearly associated to climate than CD, which presented a bias to track cold extremes. Dendroanatomical analysis, coupled to high-quality daily-resolved climate records, seems a promising approach to study the effects of extreme events on trees, but further investigations are needed to improve our comprehension of the critical role of such elusive events in forest ecosystems. PMID:27242880

Nonstationary Extreme Value Analysis in a Changing Climate: A Software Package

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheng, L.; AghaKouchak, A.; Gilleland, E.

2013-12-01

Numerous studies show that climatic extremes have increased substantially in the second half of the 20th century. For this reason, analysis of extremes under a nonstationary assumption has received a great deal of attention. This paper presents a software package developed for estimation of return levels, return periods, and risks of climatic extremes in a changing climate. This MATLAB software package offers tools for analysis of climate extremes under both stationary and non-stationary assumptions. The Nonstationary Extreme Value Analysis (hereafter, NEVA) provides an efficient and generalized framework for analyzing extremes using Bayesian inference. NEVA estimates the extreme value parameters using a Differential Evolution Markov Chain (DE-MC) which utilizes the genetic algorithm Differential Evolution (DE) for global optimization over the real parameter space with the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach and has the advantage of simplicity, speed of calculation and convergence over conventional MCMC. NEVA also offers the confidence interval and uncertainty bounds of estimated return levels based on the sampled parameters. NEVA integrates extreme value design concepts, data analysis tools, optimization and visualization, explicitly designed to facilitate analysis extremes in geosciences. The generalized input and output files of this software package make it attractive for users from across different fields. Both stationary and nonstationary components of the package are validated for a number of case studies using empirical return levels. The results show that NEVA reliably describes extremes and their return levels.

Penning trap mass spectrometry Q-value determinations for highly forbidden β-decays

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sandler, Rachel; Bollen, Georg; Eibach, Martin; Gamage, Nadeesha; Gulyuz, Kerim; Hamaker, Alec; Izzo, Chris; Kandegedara, Rathnayake; Redshaw, Matt; Ringle, Ryan; Valverde, Adrian; Yandow, Isaac; Low Energy Beam Ion Trap Team

2017-09-01

Over the last several decades, extremely sensitive, ultra-low background beta and gamma detection techniques have been developed. These techniques have enabled the observation of very rare processes, such as highly forbidden beta decays e.g. of 113Cd, 50V and 138La. Half-life measurements of highly forbidden beta decays provide a testing ground for theoretical nuclear models, and the comparison of calculated and measured energy spectra could enable a determination of the values of the weak coupling constants. Precision Q-value measurements also allow for systematic tests of the beta-particle detection techniques. We will present the results and current status of Q value determinations for highly forbidden beta decays. The Q values, the mass difference between parent and daughter nuclides, are measured using the high precision Penning trap mass spectrometer LEBIT at the National Superconducting Cyclotron Laboratory.

Applied extreme-value statistics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kinnison, R.R.

1983-05-01

The statistical theory of extreme values is a well established part of theoretical statistics. Unfortunately, it is seldom part of applied statistics and is infrequently a part of statistical curricula except in advanced studies programs. This has resulted in the impression that it is difficult to understand and not of practical value. In recent environmental and pollution literature, several short articles have appeared with the purpose of documenting all that is necessary for the practical application of extreme value theory to field problems (for example, Roberts, 1979). These articles are so concise that only a statistician can recognise all themore » subtleties and assumptions necessary for the correct use of the material presented. The intent of this text is to expand upon several recent articles, and to provide the necessary statistical background so that the non-statistician scientist can recognize and extreme value problem when it occurs in his work, be confident in handling simple extreme value problems himself, and know when the problem is statistically beyond his capabilities and requires consultation.« less

Bivariate extreme value distributions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Elshamy, M.

1992-01-01

In certain engineering applications, such as those occurring in the analyses of ascent structural loads for the Space Transportation System (STS), some of the load variables have a lower bound of zero. Thus, the need for practical models of bivariate extreme value probability distribution functions with lower limits was identified. We discuss the Gumbel models and present practical forms of bivariate extreme probability distributions of Weibull and Frechet types with two parameters. Bivariate extreme value probability distribution functions can be expressed in terms of the marginal extremel distributions and a 'dependence' function subject to certain analytical conditions. Properties of such bivariate extreme distributions, sums and differences of paired extremals, as well as the corresponding forms of conditional distributions, are discussed. Practical estimation techniques are also given.

Probability modeling of high flow extremes in Yingluoxia watershed, the upper reaches of Heihe River basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Zhanling; Li, Zhanjie; Li, Chengcheng

2014-05-01

Probability modeling of hydrological extremes is one of the major research areas in hydrological science. Most basins in humid and semi-humid south and east of China are concerned for probability modeling analysis of high flow extremes. While, for the inland river basin which occupies about 35% of the country area, there is a limited presence of such studies partly due to the limited data availability and a relatively low mean annual flow. The objective of this study is to carry out probability modeling of high flow extremes in the upper reach of Heihe River basin, the second largest inland river basin in China, by using the peak over threshold (POT) method and Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD), in which the selection of threshold and inherent assumptions for POT series are elaborated in details. For comparison, other widely used probability distributions including generalized extreme value (GEV), Lognormal, Log-logistic and Gamma are employed as well. Maximum likelihood estimate is used for parameter estimations. Daily flow data at Yingluoxia station from 1978 to 2008 are used. Results show that, synthesizing the approaches of mean excess plot, stability features of model parameters, return level plot and the inherent independence assumption of POT series, an optimum threshold of 340m3/s is finally determined for high flow extremes in Yingluoxia watershed. The resulting POT series is proved to be stationary and independent based on Mann-Kendall test, Pettitt test and autocorrelation test. In terms of Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, Anderson-Darling test and several graphical diagnostics such as quantile and cumulative density function plots, GPD provides the best fit to high flow extremes in the study area. The estimated high flows for long return periods demonstrate that, as the return period increasing, the return level estimates are probably more uncertain. The frequency of high flow extremes exhibits a very slight but not significant decreasing trend from 1978 to 2008, while the intensity of such flow extremes is comparatively increasing especially for the higher return levels.

Extremely cold events and sudden air temperature drops during winter season in the Czech Republic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crhová, Lenka; Valeriánová, Anna; Holtanová, Eva; Müller, Miloslav; Kašpar, Marek; Stříž, Martin

2014-05-01

Today a great attention is turned to analysis of extreme weather events and frequency of their occurrence under changing climate. In most cases, these studies are focused on extremely warm events in summer season. However, extremely low values of air temperature during winter can have serious impacts on many sectors as well (e.g. power engineering, transportation, industry, agriculture, human health). Therefore, in present contribution we focus on extremely and abnormally cold air temperature events in winter season in the Czech Republic. Besides the seasonal extremes of minimum air temperature determined from station data, the standardized data with removed annual cycle are used as well. Distribution of extremely cold events over the season and the temporal evolution of frequency of occurrence during the period 1961-2010 are analyzed. Furthermore, the connection of cold events with extreme sudden temperature drops is studied. The extreme air temperature events and events of extreme sudden temperature drop are assessed using the Weather Extremity Index, which evaluates the extremity (based on return periods) and spatial extent of the meteorological extreme event of interest. The generalized extreme value distribution parameters are used to estimate return periods of daily temperature values. The work has been supported by the grant P209/11/1990 funded by the Czech Science Foundation.

Precipitation extremes and their relation to climatic indices in the Pacific Northwest USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zarekarizi, Mahkameh; Rana, Arun; Moradkhani, Hamid

2018-06-01

There has been focus on the influence of climate indices on precipitation extremes in the literature. Current study presents the evaluation of the precipitation-based extremes in Columbia River Basin (CRB) in the Pacific Northwest USA. We first analyzed the precipitation-based extremes using statistically (ten GCMs) and dynamically downscaled (three GCMs) past and future climate projections. Seven precipitation-based indices that help inform about the flood duration/intensity are used. These indices help in attaining first-hand information on spatial and temporal scales for different service sectors including energy, agriculture, forestry etc. Evaluation of these indices is first performed in historical period (1971-2000) followed by analysis of their relation to large scale tele-connections. Further we mapped these indices over the area to evaluate the spatial variation of past and future extremes in downscaled and observational data. The analysis shows that high values of extreme indices are clustered in either western or northern parts of the basin for historical period whereas the northern part is experiencing higher degree of change in the indices for future scenario. The focus is also on evaluating the relation of these extreme indices to climate tele-connections in historical period to understand their relationship with extremes over CRB. Various climate indices are evaluated for their relationship using Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Singular Value Decomposition (SVD). Results indicated that, out of 13 climate tele-connections used in the study, CRB is being most affected inversely by East Pacific (EP), Western Pacific (WP), East Atlantic (EA) and North Atlaentic Oscillation (NAO).

A Metastatistical Approach to Satellite Estimates of Extreme Rainfall Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zorzetto, E.; Marani, M.

2017-12-01

The estimation of the average recurrence interval of intense rainfall events is a central issue for both hydrologic modeling and engineering design. These estimates require the inference of the properties of the right tail of the statistical distribution of precipitation, a task often performed using the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution, estimated either from a samples of annual maxima (AM) or with a peaks over threshold (POT) approach. However, these approaches require long and homogeneous rainfall records, which often are not available, especially in the case of remote-sensed rainfall datasets. We use here, and tailor it to remotely-sensed rainfall estimates, an alternative approach, based on the metastatistical extreme value distribution (MEVD), which produces estimates of rainfall extreme values based on the probability distribution function (pdf) of all measured `ordinary' rainfall event. This methodology also accounts for the interannual variations observed in the pdf of daily rainfall by integrating over the sample space of its random parameters. We illustrate the application of this framework to the TRMM Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis rainfall dataset, where MEVD optimally exploits the relatively short datasets of satellite-sensed rainfall, while taking full advantage of its high spatial resolution and quasi-global coverage. Accuracy of TRMM precipitation estimates and scale issues are here investigated for a case study located in the Little Washita watershed, Oklahoma, using a dense network of rain gauges for independent ground validation. The methodology contributes to our understanding of the risk of extreme rainfall events, as it allows i) an optimal use of the TRMM datasets in estimating the tail of the probability distribution of daily rainfall, and ii) a global mapping of daily rainfall extremes and distributional tail properties, bridging the existing gaps in rain gauges networks.

Identifying and Clarifying Organizational Values.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Seevers, Brenda S.

2000-01-01

Of the 14 organizational values ranked by a majority of 146 New Mexico Cooperative Extension educators as extremely valued, 9 were extremely evident in organizational policies and procedures. A values audit such as this forms an important initial step in strategic planning. (SK)

Optimal regionalization of extreme value distributions for flood estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Asadi, Peiman; Engelke, Sebastian; Davison, Anthony C.

2018-01-01

Regionalization methods have long been used to estimate high return levels of river discharges at ungauged locations on a river network. In these methods, discharge measurements from a homogeneous group of similar, gauged, stations are used to estimate high quantiles at a target location that has no observations. The similarity of this group to the ungauged location is measured in terms of a hydrological distance measuring differences in physical and meteorological catchment attributes. We develop a statistical method for estimation of high return levels based on regionalizing the parameters of a generalized extreme value distribution. The group of stations is chosen by optimizing over the attribute weights of the hydrological distance, ensuring similarity and in-group homogeneity. Our method is applied to discharge data from the Rhine basin in Switzerland, and its performance at ungauged locations is compared to that of other regionalization methods. For gauged locations we show how our approach improves the estimation uncertainty for long return periods by combining local measurements with those from the chosen group.

Applications of Extreme Value Theory in Public Health.

PubMed

Thomas, Maud; Lemaitre, Magali; Wilson, Mark L; Viboud, Cécile; Yordanov, Youri; Wackernagel, Hans; Carrat, Fabrice

2016-01-01

We present how Extreme Value Theory (EVT) can be used in public health to predict future extreme events. We applied EVT to weekly rates of Pneumonia and Influenza (P&I) deaths over 1979-2011. We further explored the daily number of emergency department visits in a network of 37 hospitals over 2004-2014. Maxima of grouped consecutive observations were fitted to a generalized extreme value distribution. The distribution was used to estimate the probability of extreme values in specified time periods. An annual P&I death rate of 12 per 100,000 (the highest maximum observed) should be exceeded once over the next 30 years and each year, there should be a 3% risk that the P&I death rate will exceed this value. Over the past 10 years, the observed maximum increase in the daily number of visits from the same weekday between two consecutive weeks was 1133. We estimated at 0.37% the probability of exceeding a daily increase of 1000 on each month. The EVT method can be applied to various topics in epidemiology thus contributing to public health planning for extreme events.

ZnO quantum dot-doped graphene/h-BN/GaN-heterostructure ultraviolet photodetector with extremely high responsivity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lu, Yanghua; Wu, Zhiqian; Xu, Wenli; Lin, Shisheng

2016-12-01

A ZnO quantum dot photo-doped graphene/h-BN/GaN-heterostructure ultraviolet photodetector with extremely high responsivity of more than 1915 A W-1 and detectivity of more than 1.02 × 1013 Jones (Jones = cm Hz1/2 W-1) has been demonstrated. The interfaced h-BN layer increases the barrier height at the graphene/GaN heterojunction, which decreases the dark current and improves the on/off current ratio of the device. The photo-doping effect increases the barrier height and carrier concentration at the graphene/h-BN/GaN heterojunction, thus the responsivity is improved from 1473 A W-1 to 1915 A W-1 and the detectivity is improved from 5.8 × 1012 to 1.0 × 1013 Jones. Moreover, all of the responsivity and detectivity values are the highest values among all the graphene-based ultraviolet photodetectors.

Examining personal values in extreme environment contexts: Revisiting the question of generalizability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, N.; Sandal, G. M.; Leon, G. R.; Kjærgaard, A.

2017-08-01

Land-based extreme environments (e.g. polar expeditions, Antarctic research stations, confinement chambers) have often been used as analog settings for spaceflight. These settings share similarities with the conditions experienced during space missions, including confinement, isolation and limited possibilities for evacuation. To determine the utility of analog settings for understanding human spaceflight, researchers have examined the extent to which the individual characteristics (e.g., personality) of people operating in extreme environments can be generalized across contexts (Sandal, 2000) [1]. Building on previous work, and utilising new and pre-existing data, the present study examined the extent to which personal value motives could be generalized across extreme environments. Four populations were assessed; mountaineers (N =59), military personnel (N = 25), Antarctic over-winterers (N = 21) and Mars simulation participants (N = 12). All participants completed the Portrait Values Questionnaire (PVQ; Schwartz; 2) capturing information on 10 personal values. Rank scores suggest that all groups identified Self-direction, Stimulation, Universalism and Benevolence as important values and acknowledged Power and Tradition as being low priorities. Results from difference testing suggest the extreme environment groups were most comparable on Self-direction, Stimulation, Benevolence, Tradition and Security. There were significant between-group differences on five of the ten values. Overall, findings pinpointed specific values that may be important for functioning in challenging environments. However, the differences that emerged on certain values highlight the importance of considering the specific population when comparing results across extreme settings. We recommend that further research examine the impact of personal value motives on indicators of adjustment, group working, and performance. Information from such studies could then be used to aid selection and training processes for personnel operating in extreme settings, and in space.

Assessment of extreme value distributions for maximum temperature in the Mediterranean area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beck, Alexander; Hertig, Elke; Jacobeit, Jucundus

2015-04-01

Extreme maximum temperatures highly affect the natural as well as the societal environment Heat stress has great effects on flora, fauna and humans and culminates in heat related morbidity and mortality. Agriculture and different industries are severely affected by extreme air temperatures. Even more under climate change conditions, it is necessary to detect potential hazards which arise from changes in the distributional parameters of extreme values, and this is especially relevant for the Mediterranean region which is characterized as a climate change hot spot. Therefore statistical approaches are developed to estimate these parameters with a focus on non-stationarities emerging in the relationship between regional climate variables and their large-scale predictors like sea level pressure, geopotential heights, atmospheric temperatures and relative humidity. Gridded maximum temperature data from the daily E-OBS dataset (Haylock et al., 2008) with a spatial resolution of 0.25° x 0.25° from January 1950 until December 2012 are the predictands for the present analyses. A s-mode principal component analysis (PCA) has been performed in order to reduce data dimension and to retain different regions of similar maximum temperature variability. The grid box with the highest PC-loading represents the corresponding principal component. A central part of the analyses is the model development for temperature extremes under the use of extreme value statistics. A combined model is derived consisting of a Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) model and a quantile regression (QR) model which determines the GPD location parameters. The QR model as well as the scale parameters of the GPD model are conditioned by various large-scale predictor variables. In order to account for potential non-stationarities in the predictors-temperature relationships, a special calibration and validation scheme is applied, respectively. Haylock, M. R., N. Hofstra, A. M. G. Klein Tank, E. J. Klok, P. D. Jones, and M. New (2008), A European daily high-resolution gridded data set of surface temperature and precipitation for 1950 - 2006, J. Geophys. Res., 113, D20119, doi:10.1029/2008JD010201.

Statistical Evaluation and Improvement of Methods for Combining Random and Harmonic Loads

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brown, A. M.; McGhee, D. S.

2003-01-01

Structures in many environments experience both random and harmonic excitation. A variety of closed-form techniques has been used in the aerospace industry to combine the loads resulting from the two sources. The resulting combined loads are then used to design for both yield/ultimate strength and high- cycle fatigue capability. This Technical Publication examines the cumulative distribution percentiles obtained using each method by integrating the joint probability density function of the sine and random components. A new Microsoft Excel spreadsheet macro that links with the software program Mathematica to calculate the combined value corresponding to any desired percentile is then presented along with a curve tit to this value. Another Excel macro that calculates the combination using Monte Carlo simulation is shown. Unlike the traditional techniques. these methods quantify the calculated load value with a consistent percentile. Using either of the presented methods can be extremely valuable in probabilistic design, which requires a statistical characterization of the loading. Additionally, since the CDF at high probability levels is very flat, the design value is extremely sensitive to the predetermined percentile; therefore, applying the new techniques can substantially lower the design loading without losing any of the identified structural reliability.

Statistical Comparison and Improvement of Methods for Combining Random and Harmonic Loads

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brown, Andrew M.; McGhee, David S.

2004-01-01

Structures in many environments experience both random and harmonic excitation. A variety of closed-form techniques has been used in the aerospace industry to combine the loads resulting from the two sources. The resulting combined loads are then used to design for both yield ultimate strength and high cycle fatigue capability. This paper examines the cumulative distribution function (CDF) percentiles obtained using each method by integrating the joint probability density function of the sine and random components. A new Microsoft Excel spreadsheet macro that links with the software program Mathematics is then used to calculate the combined value corresponding to any desired percentile along with a curve fit to this value. Another Excel macro is used to calculate the combination using a Monte Carlo simulation. Unlike the traditional techniques, these methods quantify the calculated load value with a Consistent percentile. Using either of the presented methods can be extremely valuable in probabilistic design, which requires a statistical characterization of the loading. Also, since the CDF at high probability levels is very flat, the design value is extremely sensitive to the predetermined percentile; therefore, applying the new techniques can lower the design loading substantially without losing any of the identified structural reliability.

Extreme event statistics in a drifting Markov chain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kindermann, Farina; Hohmann, Michael; Lausch, Tobias; Mayer, Daniel; Schmidt, Felix; Widera, Artur

2017-07-01

We analyze extreme event statistics of experimentally realized Markov chains with various drifts. Our Markov chains are individual trajectories of a single atom diffusing in a one-dimensional periodic potential. Based on more than 500 individual atomic traces we verify the applicability of the Sparre Andersen theorem to our system despite the presence of a drift. We present detailed analysis of four different rare-event statistics for our system: the distributions of extreme values, of record values, of extreme value occurrence in the chain, and of the number of records in the chain. We observe that, for our data, the shape of the extreme event distributions is dominated by the underlying exponential distance distribution extracted from the atomic traces. Furthermore, we find that even small drifts influence the statistics of extreme events and record values, which is supported by numerical simulations, and we identify cases in which the drift can be determined without information about the underlying random variable distributions. Our results facilitate the use of extreme event statistics as a signal for small drifts in correlated trajectories.

The effect of extremely high glucose concentrations on 21 routine chemistry and thyroid Abbott assays: interference study.

PubMed

Çuhadar, Serap; Köseoğlu, Mehmet; Çinpolat, Yasemin; Buğdaycı, Güler; Usta, Murat; Semerci, Tuna

2016-01-01

Extremely high glucose concentrations have been shown to interfere with creatinine assays especially with Jaffe method in peritoneal dialysate. Because diabetes is the fastest growing chronic disease in the world, laboratories study with varying glucose concentrations. We investigated whether different levels of glucose spiked in serum interfere with 21 routine chemistry and thyroid assays at glucose concentrations between 17-51 mmol/L. Baseline (group I) serum pool with glucose concentration of 5.55 (5.44-5.61) mmol/L was prepared from patient sera. Spiking with 20% dextrose solution, sample groups were obtained with glucose concentrations: 17.09, 34.52, and 50.95 mmol/L (group II, III, IV, respectively). Total of 21 biochemistry analytes and thyroid tests were studied on Abbott c8000 and i2000sr with commercial reagents. Bias from baseline value was checked statistically and clinically. Creatinine increased significantly by 8.74%, 31.66%, 55.31% at groups II, III, IV, respectively with P values of < 0.001. At the median glucose concentration of 50.95 mmol/L, calcium, albumin, chloride and FT4 biased significantly clinically (-0.85%, 1.63%, 0.65%, 7.4% with P values 0.138, 0.214, 0.004, < 0.001, respectively). Remaining assays were free of interference. Among the numerous biochemical parameters studied, only a few parameters are affected by dramatically increased glucose concentration. The creatinine measurements obtained in human sera with the Jaffe alkaline method at high glucose concentrations should be interpreted with caution. Other tests that were affected with extremely high glucose concentrations were calcium, albumin, chloride and FT4, hence results should be taken into consideration in patients with poor diabetic control.

Diagnostic accuracy of ultrasound in upper and lower extremity long bone fractures of emergency department trauma patients

PubMed Central

Frouzan, Arash; Masoumi, Kambiz; Delirroyfard, Ali; Mazdaie, Behnaz; Bagherzadegan, Elnaz

2017-01-01

Background Long bone fractures are common injuries caused by trauma. Some studies have demonstrated that ultrasound has a high sensitivity and specificity in the diagnosis of upper and lower extremity long bone fractures. Objective The aim of this study was to determine the accuracy of ultrasound compared with plain radiography in diagnosis of upper and lower extremity long bone fractures in traumatic patients. Methods This cross-sectional study assessed 100 patients admitted to the emergency department of Imam Khomeini Hospital, Ahvaz, Iran with trauma to the upper and lower extremities, from September 2014 through October 2015. In all patients, first ultrasound and then standard plain radiography for the upper and lower limb was performed. Data were analyzed by SPSS version 21 to determine the specificity and sensitivity. Results The mean age of patients with upper and lower limb trauma were 31.43±12.32 years and 29.63±5.89 years, respectively. Radius fracture was the most frequent compared to other fractures (27%). Sensitivity, specificity, positive predicted value, and negative predicted value of ultrasound compared with plain radiography in the diagnosis of upper extremity long bones were 95.3%, 87.7%, 87.2% and 96.2%, respectively, and the highest accuracy was observed in left arm fractures (100%). Tibia and fibula fractures were the most frequent types compared to other fractures (89.2%). Sensitivity, specificity, PPV and NPV of ultrasound compared with plain radiography in the diagnosis of upper extremity long bone fractures were 98.6%, 83%, 65.4% and 87.1%, respectively, and the highest accuracy was observed in men, lower ages and femoral fractures. Conclusion The results of this study showed that ultrasound compared with plain radiography has a high accuracy in the diagnosis of upper and lower extremity long bone fractures. PMID:28979747

Treatment strategy for metastatic prostate cancer with extremely high PSA level: reconsidering the value of vintage therapy.

PubMed

Yamada, Yasutaka; Sakamoto, Shinichi; Amiya, Yoshiyasu; Sasaki, Makoto; Shima, Takayuki; Komiya, Akira; Suzuki, Noriyuki; Akakura, Koichiro; Ichikawa, Tomohiko; Nakatsu, Hiroomi

2018-05-04

The prognostic significance of initial prostate-specific antigen (PSA) level for metastatic prostate cancer remains uncertain. We investigated the differences in prognosis and response to hormonal therapies of metastatic prostate cancer patients according to initial PSA levels. We analyzed 184 patients diagnosed with metastatic prostate cancer and divided them into three PSA level groups as follows: low (<100 ng ml -1 ), intermediate (100-999 ng ml -1 ), and high (≥1000 ng ml -1 ). All patients received androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) immediately. We investigated PSA progression-free survival (PFS) for first-line ADT and overall survival (OS) within each of the three groups. Furthermore, we analyzed response to antiandrogen withdrawal (AW) and alternative antiandrogen (AA) therapies after development of castration-resistant prostate cancer (CRPC). No significant differences in OS were observed among the three groups (P = 0.654). Patients with high PSA levels had significantly short PFS for first-line ADT (P = 0.037). Conversely, patients in the high PSA level group had significantly longer PFS when treated with AW than those in the low PSA level group (P = 0.047). Furthermore, patients with high PSA levels had significantly longer PFS when provided with AA therapy (P = 0.049). PSA responders to AW and AA therapies had significantly longer survival after CRPC development than nonresponders (P = 0.011 and P < 0.001, respectively). Thus, extremely high PSA level predicted favorable response to vintage sequential ADT and AW. The current data suggest a novel aspect of extremely high PSA value as a favorable prognostic marker after development of CRPC.

Diverse strategies for ion regulation in fish collected from the ion-poor, acidic Rio Negro.

PubMed

Gonzalez, R J; Wilson, R W; Wood, C M; Patrick, M L; Val, A L

2002-01-01

We measured unidirectional ion fluxes of fish collected directly from the Rio Negro, an extremely dilute, acidic blackwater tributary of the Amazon. Kinetic analysis of Na(+) uptake revealed that most species had fairly similar J(max) values, ranging from 1,150 to 1,750 nmol g(-1) h(-1), while K(m) values varied to a greater extent. Three species had K(m) values <33 micromol L(-1), while the rest had K(m) values >or=110 micromol L(-1). Because of the extremely low Na(+) concentration of Rio Negro water, the differences in K(m) values yield very different rates of Na(+) uptake. However, regardless of the rate of Na(+) uptake, measurements of Na(+) efflux show that Na(+) balance was maintained at very low Na(+) levels (<50 micromol L(-1)) by most species. Unlike other species with high K(m) values, the catfish Corydoras julii maintained high rates of Na(+) uptake in dilute waters by having a J(max) value at least 100% higher than the other species. Corydoras julii also demonstrated the ability to modulate kinetic parameters in response to changes in water chemistry. After 2 wk in 2 mmol L(-1) NaCl, J(max) fell >50%, and K(m) dropped about 70%. The unusual acclimatory drop in K(m) may represent a mechanism to ensure high rates of Na(+) uptake on return to dilute water. As well as being tolerant of extremely dilute waters, Rio Negro fish generally were fairly tolerant of low pH. Still, there were significant differences in sensitivity to pH among the species on the basis of degree of stimulation of Na(+) efflux at low pH. There were also differences in sensitivity to low pH of Na(+) uptake, and two species maintained significant rates of uptake even at pH 3.5. When fish were exposed to low pH in Rio Negro water instead of deionized water (with the same concentrations of major ions), the effects of low pH were reduced. This suggests that high concentrations of dissolved organic molecules in the water, which give it its dark tea color, may interact with the branchial epithelium in some protective manner.

Risk assessment of precipitation extremes in northern Xinjiang, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Jun; Pei, Ying; Zhang, Yanwei; Ge, Quansheng

2018-05-01

This study was conducted using daily precipitation records gathered at 37 meteorological stations in northern Xinjiang, China, from 1961 to 2010. We used the extreme value theory model, generalized extreme value (GEV) and generalized Pareto distribution (GPD), statistical distribution function to fit outputs of precipitation extremes with different return periods to estimate risks of precipitation extremes and diagnose aridity-humidity environmental variation and corresponding spatial patterns in northern Xinjiang. Spatiotemporal patterns of daily maximum precipitation showed that aridity-humidity conditions of northern Xinjiang could be well represented by the return periods of the precipitation data. Indices of daily maximum precipitation were effective in the prediction of floods in the study area. By analyzing future projections of daily maximum precipitation (2, 5, 10, 30, 50, and 100 years), we conclude that the flood risk will gradually increase in northern Xinjiang. GEV extreme value modeling yielded the best results, proving to be extremely valuable. Through example analysis for extreme precipitation models, the GEV statistical model was superior in terms of favorable analog extreme precipitation. The GPD model calculation results reflect annual precipitation. For most of the estimated sites' 2 and 5-year T for precipitation levels, GPD results were slightly greater than GEV results. The study found that extreme precipitation reaching a certain limit value level will cause a flood disaster. Therefore, predicting future extreme precipitation may aid warnings of flood disaster. A suitable policy concerning effective water resource management is thus urgently required.

Use of local Moran's I and GIS to identify pollution hotspots of Pb in urban soils of Galway, Ireland.

PubMed

Zhang, Chaosheng; Luo, Lin; Xu, Weilin; Ledwith, Valerie

2008-07-15

Pollution hotspots in urban soils need to be identified for better environmental management. It is important to know if there are hotspots and if the hotspots are statistically significant. In this study identification of pollution hotspots was investigated using Pb concentrations in urban soils of Galway City in Ireland as an example, and the influencing factors on results of hotspot identification were investigated. The index of local Moran's I is a useful tool for identifying pollution hotspots of Pb pollution in urban soils, and for classifying them into spatial clusters and spatial outliers. The results were affected by the definition of weight function, data transformation and existence of extreme values. Compared with the results for the positively skewed raw data, the transformed data and data with extreme values excluded revealed a larger area for the high value spatial clusters in the city centre. While it is hard to decide the best way of using this index, it is suggested that all these influencing factors should be considered until reasonable and reliable results are obtained. GIS mapping can be applied to help evaluate the results via visualization of the spatial patterns. Meanwhile, selected pollution hotspots (extreme values) in this study were confirmed by re-analyses and re-sampling.

The application of the statistical theory of extreme values to gust-load problems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Press, Harry

1950-01-01

An analysis is presented which indicates that the statistical theory of extreme values is applicable to the problems of predicting the frequency of encountering the larger gust loads and gust velocities for both specific test conditions as well as commercial transport operations. The extreme-value theory provides an analytic form for the distributions of maximum values of gust load and velocity. Methods of fitting the distribution are given along with a method of estimating the reliability of the predictions. The theory of extreme values is applied to available load data from commercial transport operations. The results indicate that the estimates of the frequency of encountering the larger loads are more consistent with the data and more reliable than those obtained in previous analyses. (author)

Extreme value statistics analysis of fracture strengths of a sintered silicon nitride failing from pores

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chao, Luen-Yuan; Shetty, Dinesh K.

1992-01-01

Statistical analysis and correlation between pore-size distribution and fracture strength distribution using the theory of extreme-value statistics is presented for a sintered silicon nitride. The pore-size distribution on a polished surface of this material was characterized, using an automatic optical image analyzer. The distribution measured on the two-dimensional plane surface was transformed to a population (volume) distribution, using the Schwartz-Saltykov diameter method. The population pore-size distribution and the distribution of the pore size at the fracture origin were correllated by extreme-value statistics. Fracture strength distribution was then predicted from the extreme-value pore-size distribution, usin a linear elastic fracture mechanics model of annular crack around pore and the fracture toughness of the ceramic. The predicted strength distribution was in good agreement with strength measurements in bending. In particular, the extreme-value statistics analysis explained the nonlinear trend in the linearized Weibull plot of measured strengths without postulating a lower-bound strength.

On alternative q-Weibull and q-extreme value distributions: Properties and applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Fode; Ng, Hon Keung Tony; Shi, Yimin

2018-01-01

Tsallis statistics and Tsallis distributions have been attracting a significant amount of research work in recent years. Importantly, the Tsallis statistics, q-distributions have been applied in different disciplines. Yet, a relationship between some existing q-Weibull distributions and q-extreme value distributions that is parallel to the well-established relationship between the conventional Weibull and extreme value distributions through a logarithmic transformation has not be established. In this paper, we proposed an alternative q-Weibull distribution that leads to a q-extreme value distribution via the q-logarithm transformation. Some important properties of the proposed q-Weibull and q-extreme value distributions are studied. Maximum likelihood and least squares estimation methods are used to estimate the parameters of q-Weibull distribution and their performances are investigated through a Monte Carlo simulation study. The methodologies and the usefulness of the proposed distributions are illustrated by fitting the 2014 traffic fatalities data from The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration.

The Support of Air Operations Under Extreme Hot and Cold Weather Conditions (Les Operatons Aeriennes en Environnement Extreme Chaud/Froid)

DTIC Science & Technology

1993-10-01

particular subject’s water turnover data could be considered triglyceride , high density lipoprotein ( HDL ), low density an outlier (20). Ali results are... Cholesterol and triglycerides values tended to decrease pre- retrospectively distinguish the bars enough to accurately rate to post-study. Further...there was an increase in the HDL them individually. However, the field data show that even fraction and a decrease in the LDL fraction of cholesterol

Extreme values and the level-crossing problem: An application to the Feller process

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Masoliver, Jaume

2014-04-01

We review the question of the extreme values attained by a random process. We relate it to level crossings to one boundary (first-passage problems) as well as to two boundaries (escape problems). The extremes studied are the maximum, the minimum, the maximum absolute value, and the range or span. We specialize in diffusion processes and present detailed results for the Wiener and Feller processes.

An overabundance of low-density Neptune-like planets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cubillos, Patricio; Erkaev, Nikolai V.; Juvan, Ines; Fossati, Luca; Johnstone, Colin P.; Lammer, Helmut; Lendl, Monika; Odert, Petra; Kislyakova, Kristina G.

2017-04-01

We present a uniform analysis of the atmospheric escape rate of Neptune-like planets with estimated radius and mass (restricted to Mp < 30 M⊕). For each planet, we compute the restricted Jeans escape parameter, Λ, for a hydrogen atom evaluated at the planetary mass, radius, and equilibrium temperature. Values of Λ ≲ 20 suggest extremely high mass-loss rates. We identify 27 planets (out of 167) that are simultaneously consistent with hydrogen-dominated atmospheres and are expected to exhibit extreme mass-loss rates. We further estimate the mass-loss rates (Lhy) of these planets with tailored atmospheric hydrodynamic models. We compare Lhy to the energy-limited (maximum-possible high-energy driven) mass-loss rates. We confirm that 25 planets (15 per cent of the sample) exhibit extremely high mass-loss rates (Lhy > 0.1 M⌖ Gyr-1), well in excess of the energy-limited mass-loss rates. This constitutes a contradiction, since the hydrogen envelopes cannot be retained given the high mass-loss rates. We hypothesize that these planets are not truly under such high mass-loss rates. Instead, either hydrodynamic models overestimate the mass-loss rates, transit-timing-variation measurements underestimate the planetary masses, optical transit observations overestimate the planetary radii (due to high-altitude clouds), or Neptunes have consistently higher albedos than Jupiter planets. We conclude that at least one of these established estimations/techniques is consistently producing biased values for Neptune planets. Such an important fraction of exoplanets with misinterpreted parameters can significantly bias our view of populations studies, like the observed mass-radius distribution of exoplanets for example.

Inter-examiner classification reliability of Mechanical Diagnosis and Therapy for extremity problems - Systematic review.

PubMed

Takasaki, Hiroshi; Okuyama, Kousuke; Rosedale, Richard

2017-02-01

Mechanical Diagnosis and Therapy (MDT) is used in the treatment of extremity problems. Classifying clinical problems is one method of providing effective treatment to a target population. Classification reliability is a key factor to determine the precise clinical problem and to direct an appropriate intervention. To explore inter-examiner reliability of the MDT classification for extremity problems in three reliability designs: 1) vignette reliability using surveys with patient vignettes, 2) concurrent reliability, where multiple assessors decide a classification by observing someone's assessment, 3) successive reliability, where multiple assessors independently assess the same patient at different times. Systematic review with data synthesis in a quantitative format. Agreement of MDT subgroups was examined using the Kappa value, with the operational definition of acceptable reliability set at ≥ 0.6. The level of evidence was determined considering the methodological quality of the studies. Six studies were included and all studies met the criteria for high quality. Kappa values for the vignette reliability design (five studies) were ≥ 0.7. There was data from two cohorts in one study for the concurrent reliability design and the Kappa values ranged from 0.45 to 1.0. Kappa values for the successive reliability design (data from three cohorts in one study) were < 0.6. The current review found strong evidence of acceptable inter-examiner reliability of MDT classification for extremity problems in the vignette reliability design, limited evidence of acceptable reliability in the concurrent reliability design and unacceptable reliability in the successive reliability design. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Sensitive detection of strong acidic condition by a novel rhodamine-based fluorescent pH chemosensor.

PubMed

Tan, Jia-Lian; Yang, Ting-Ting; Liu, Yu; Zhang, Xue; Cheng, Shu-Jin; Zuo, Hua; He, Huawei

2016-05-01

A novel rhodamine-based fluorescent pH probe responding to extremely low pH values has been synthesized and characterized. This probe showed an excellent photophysical response to pH on the basis that the colorless spirocyclic structure under basic conditions opened to a colored and highly fluorescent form under extreme acidity. The quantitative relationship between fluorescence intensity and pH value (1.75-2.62) was consistent with the equilibrium equation pH = pKa + log[(Imax - I)/(I - Imin)]. This sensitive pH probe was also characterized with good reversibility and no interaction with interfering metal ions, and was successfully applied to image Escherichia coli under strong acidity. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Developing Normal Turns-Amplitude Clouds for Upper and Lower Limbs.

PubMed

Jabre, Joe F; Nikolayev, Sergey G; Babayev, Michael B; Chindilov, Denis V; Muravyov, Anatoly Y

2016-10-01

Turns and amplitude analysis (T&A) is a frequently used method for automatic EMG interference pattern analysis. The T&A normal values have only been developed for a limited number of muscles. Our objective was to obtain normal T&A clouds for upper and lower extremity muscles for which no normal values exist in the literature. The T&A normative data using concentric needle electrodes were obtained from 68 men and 56 women aged 20 to 60 years. Normal upper and lower extremity T&A clouds were obtained and presented in this article. The T&A normal values collected in this study maybe used to detect neurogenic and myopathic abnormalities in men and women at low-to-moderate muscle contractions. The effect of turns-amplitude data obtained at high force level of muscle contraction and its potential to falsely show neurogenic abnormalities are discussed.

A Fiducial Approach to Extremes and Multiple Comparisons

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wandler, Damian V.

2010-01-01

Generalized fiducial inference is a powerful tool for many difficult problems. Based on an extension of R. A. Fisher's work, we used generalized fiducial inference for two extreme value problems and a multiple comparison procedure. The first extreme value problem is dealing with the generalized Pareto distribution. The generalized Pareto…

Robust, nonlinear, high angle-of-attack control design for a supermaneuverable vehicle

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Adams, Richard J.

1993-01-01

High angle-of-attack flight control laws are developed for a supermaneuverable fighter aircraft. The methods of dynamic inversion and structured singular value synthesis are combined into an approach which addresses both the nonlinearity and robustness problems of flight at extreme operating conditions. The primary purpose of the dynamic inversion control elements is to linearize the vehicle response across the flight envelope. Structured singular value synthesis is used to design a dynamic controller which provides robust tracking to pilot commands. The resulting control system achieves desired flying qualities and guarantees a large margin of robustness to uncertainties for high angle-of-attack flight conditions. The results of linear simulation and structured singular value stability analysis are presented to demonstrate satisfaction of the design criteria. High fidelity nonlinear simulation results show that the combined dynamics inversion/structured singular value synthesis control law achieves a high level of performance in a realistic environment.

Collisions near Kerr black holes: lower limit of energy between orbiting and incoming particles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rutkowski, Mieszko

2017-01-01

In our paper we investigate the lower limit of collisional energy of test particles near the Kerr black hole. In particular we examine the minimal Lorentz factor between the freely falling particles and the particles orbiting around a black hole. We consider collisions on the innermost stable circular orbit and examine near-extreme case, where collisions take place near an event horizon. By fine-tuning the particles' angular momentum, the Lorentz factor of the collision can always be minimized to a value dependent on the black hole's spin. We identified that this minimal value is always less than 2√{2}-1/√{3} and more than √{12}-1/√{6} (the limits are the values for an extreme Kerr and Schwarzschild, respectively). It implies that this kind of collisions of compact objects are expected to be highly energetic near supermassive black holes. In addition, we show that an interaction between black hole's and particle's spins has an influence on minimal Lorentz factor. This contribution is nonnegligible for near-extreme black holes. We also discuss the relation between our results and sci-fi movie Interstellar.

A single pH fluorescent probe for biosensing and imaging of extreme acidity and extreme alkalinity.

PubMed

Chao, Jian-Bin; Wang, Hui-Juan; Zhang, Yong-Bin; Li, Zhi-Qing; Liu, Yu-Hong; Huo, Fang-Jun; Yin, Cai-Xia; Shi, Ya-Wei; Wang, Juan-Juan

2017-07-04

A simple tailor-made pH fluorescent probe 2-benzothiazole (N-ethylcarbazole-3-yl) hydrazone (Probe) is facilely synthesized by the condensation reaction of 2-hydrazinobenzothiazole with N-ethylcarbazole-3-formaldehyde, which is a useful fluorescent probe for monitoring extremely acidic and alkaline pH, quantitatively. The pH titrations indicate that Probe displays a remarkable emission enhancement with a pK a of 2.73 and responds linearly to minor pH fluctuations within the extremely acidic range of 2.21-3.30. Interestingly, Probe also exhibits strong pH-dependent characteristics with pK a 11.28 and linear response to extreme-alkalinity range of 10.41-12.43. In addition, Probe shows a large Stokes shift of 84 nm under extremely acidic and alkaline conditions, high selectivity, excellent sensitivity, good water-solubility and fine stability, all of which are favorable for intracellular pH imaging. The probe is further successfully applied to image extremely acidic and alkaline pH values fluctuations in E. coli cells. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

41 CFR 302-7.19 - Should I include items that are irreplaceable or of extremely high monetary or sentimental value...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... Section 302-7.19 Public Contracts and Property Management Federal Travel Regulation System RELOCATION ALLOWANCES TRANSPORTATION AND STORAGE OF PROPERTY 7-TRANSPORTATION AND TEMPORARY STORAGE OF HOUSEHOLD GOODS...

Assessing changes in extreme convective precipitation from a damage perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schroeer, K.; Tye, M. R.

2016-12-01

Projected increases in high-intensity short-duration convective precipitation are expected even in regions that are likely to become more arid. Such high intensity precipitation events can trigger hazardous flash floods, debris flows and landslides that put people and local assets at risk. However, the assessment of local scale precipitation extremes is hampered by its high spatial and temporal variability. In addition to which, not only are extreme events rare, but such small scale events are likely to be underreported where they don't coincide with the observation network. Rather than focus solely on the convective precipitation, understanding the characteristics of these extremes which drive damage may be more effective to assess future risks. Two sources of data are used in this study. First, sub-daily precipitation observations over the Southern Alps enable an examination of seasonal and regional patterns in high-intensity convective precipitation and their relationship with weather types. Secondly, reports of private loss and damage on a household scale are used to identify which events are most damaging, or what conditions potentially enhance the vulnerability to these extremes.This study explores the potential added value from including recorded loss and damage data to understand the risks from summertime convective precipitation events. By relating precipitation generating weather types to the severity of damage we hope to develop a mechanism to assess future risks. A further benefit would be to identify from damage reports the likely occurrence of precipitation extremes where no direct observations are available and use this information to validate remotely sensed observations.

Diagnostic performance and radiation dose of lower extremity CT angiography using a 128-slice dual source CT at 80 kVp and high pitch.

PubMed

Kim, Jin Woo; Choo, Ki Seok; Jeon, Ung Bae; Kim, Tae Un; Hwang, Jae Yeon; Yeom, Jeong A; Jeong, Hee Seok; Choi, Yoon Young; Nam, Kyung Jin; Kim, Chang Won; Jeong, Dong Wook; Lim, Soo Jin

2016-07-01

Multi-detector computed tomography (MDCT) angiography is now used for the diagnosing patients with peripheral arterial disease. The dose of radiation is related to variable factors, such as tube current, tube voltage, and helical pitch. To assess the diagnostic performance and radiation dose of lower extremity CT angiography (CTA) using a 128-slice dual source CT at 80 kVp and high pitch in patients with critical limb ischemia (CLI). Twenty-eight patients (mean, 64.1 years; range, 39-80 years) with CLI were enrolled in this retrospective study and underwent CTA using a 128-slice dual source CT at 80 kVp and high pitch and subsequent intra-arterial digital subtraction angiography (DSA), which was used as a reference standard for assessing diagnostic performance. For arterial segments with significant disease (>50% stenosis), overall sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy of lower extremity CTA were 94.8% (95% CI, 91.7-98.0%), 91.5% (95% CI, 87.7-95.2%), and 93.1% (95% CI, 90.6-95.6%), respectively, and its positive and negative predictive values were 91.0% (95% CI, 87.1-95.0%), and 95.1% (95% CI, 92.1-98.1%), respectively. Mean radiation dose delivered to lower extremities was 266.6 mGy.cm. Lower extremity CTA using a 128-slice dual source CT at 80 kVp and high pitch was found to have good diagnostic performance for the assessment of patients with CLI using an extremely low radiation dose. © The Foundation Acta Radiologica 2015.

Mapping Dependence Between Extreme Rainfall and Storm Surge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Wenyan; McInnes, Kathleen; O'Grady, Julian; Hoeke, Ron; Leonard, Michael; Westra, Seth

2018-04-01

Dependence between extreme storm surge and rainfall can have significant implications for flood risk in coastal and estuarine regions. To supplement limited observational records, we use reanalysis surge data from a hydrodynamic model as the basis for dependence mapping, providing information at a resolution of approximately 30 km along the Australian coastline. We evaluated this approach by comparing the dependence estimates from modeled surge to that calculated using historical surge records from 79 tide gauges around Australia. The results show reasonable agreement between the two sets of dependence values, with the exception of lower seasonal variation in the modeled dependence values compared to the observed data, especially at locations where there are multiple processes driving extreme storm surge. This is due to the combined impact of local bathymetry as well as the resolution of the hydrodynamic model and its meteorological inputs. Meteorological drivers were also investigated for different combinations of extreme rainfall and surge—namely rain-only, surge-only, and coincident extremes—finding that different synoptic patterns are responsible for each combination. The ability to supplement observational records with high-resolution modeled surge data enables a much more precise quantification of dependence along the coastline, strengthening the physical basis for assessments of flood risk in coastal regions.

Towards a General Theory of Extremes for Observables of Chaotic Dynamical Systems.

PubMed

Lucarini, Valerio; Faranda, Davide; Wouters, Jeroen; Kuna, Tobias

2014-01-01

In this paper we provide a connection between the geometrical properties of the attractor of a chaotic dynamical system and the distribution of extreme values. We show that the extremes of so-called physical observables are distributed according to the classical generalised Pareto distribution and derive explicit expressions for the scaling and the shape parameter. In particular, we derive that the shape parameter does not depend on the chosen observables, but only on the partial dimensions of the invariant measure on the stable, unstable, and neutral manifolds. The shape parameter is negative and is close to zero when high-dimensional systems are considered. This result agrees with what was derived recently using the generalized extreme value approach. Combining the results obtained using such physical observables and the properties of the extremes of distance observables, it is possible to derive estimates of the partial dimensions of the attractor along the stable and the unstable directions of the flow. Moreover, by writing the shape parameter in terms of moments of the extremes of the considered observable and by using linear response theory, we relate the sensitivity to perturbations of the shape parameter to the sensitivity of the moments, of the partial dimensions, and of the Kaplan-Yorke dimension of the attractor. Preliminary numerical investigations provide encouraging results on the applicability of the theory presented here. The results presented here do not apply for all combinations of Axiom A systems and observables, but the breakdown seems to be related to very special geometrical configurations.

Towards a General Theory of Extremes for Observables of Chaotic Dynamical Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lucarini, Valerio; Faranda, Davide; Wouters, Jeroen; Kuna, Tobias

2014-02-01

In this paper we provide a connection between the geometrical properties of the attractor of a chaotic dynamical system and the distribution of extreme values. We show that the extremes of so-called physical observables are distributed according to the classical generalised Pareto distribution and derive explicit expressions for the scaling and the shape parameter. In particular, we derive that the shape parameter does not depend on the chosen observables, but only on the partial dimensions of the invariant measure on the stable, unstable, and neutral manifolds. The shape parameter is negative and is close to zero when high-dimensional systems are considered. This result agrees with what was derived recently using the generalized extreme value approach. Combining the results obtained using such physical observables and the properties of the extremes of distance observables, it is possible to derive estimates of the partial dimensions of the attractor along the stable and the unstable directions of the flow. Moreover, by writing the shape parameter in terms of moments of the extremes of the considered observable and by using linear response theory, we relate the sensitivity to perturbations of the shape parameter to the sensitivity of the moments, of the partial dimensions, and of the Kaplan-Yorke dimension of the attractor. Preliminary numerical investigations provide encouraging results on the applicability of the theory presented here. The results presented here do not apply for all combinations of Axiom A systems and observables, but the breakdown seems to be related to very special geometrical configurations.

Extreme value modeling for the analysis and prediction of time series of extreme tropospheric ozone levels: a case study.

PubMed

Escarela, Gabriel

2012-06-01

The occurrence of high concentrations of tropospheric ozone is considered as one of the most important issues of air management programs. The prediction of dangerous ozone levels for the public health and the environment, along with the assessment of air quality control programs aimed at reducing their severity, is of considerable interest to the scientific community and to policy makers. The chemical mechanisms of tropospheric ozone formation are complex, and highly variable meteorological conditions contribute additionally to difficulties in accurate study and prediction of high levels of ozone. Statistical methods offer an effective approach to understand the problem and eventually improve the ability to predict maximum levels of ozone. In this paper an extreme value model is developed to study data sets that consist of periodically collected maxima of tropospheric ozone concentrations and meteorological variables. The methods are applied to daily tropospheric ozone maxima in Guadalajara City, Mexico, for the period January 1997 to December 2006. The model adjusts the daily rate of change in ozone for concurrent impacts of seasonality and present and past meteorological conditions, which include surface temperature, wind speed, wind direction, relative humidity, and ozone. The results indicate that trend, annual effects, and key meteorological variables along with some interactions explain the variation in daily ozone maxima. Prediction performance assessments yield reasonably good results.

Seasonal and Non-Seasonal Generalized Pareto Distribution to Estimate Extreme Significant Wave Height in The Banda Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nursamsiah; Nugroho Sugianto, Denny; Suprijanto, Jusup; Munasik; Yulianto, Bambang

2018-02-01

The information of extreme wave height return level was required for maritime planning and management. The recommendation methods in analyzing extreme wave were better distributed by Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD). Seasonal variation was often considered in the extreme wave model. This research aims to identify the best model of GPD by considering a seasonal variation of the extreme wave. By using percentile 95 % as the threshold of extreme significant wave height, the seasonal GPD and non-seasonal GPD fitted. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov test was applied to identify the goodness of fit of the GPD model. The return value from seasonal and non-seasonal GPD was compared with the definition of return value as criteria. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov test result shows that GPD fits data very well both seasonal and non-seasonal model. The seasonal return value gives better information about the wave height characteristics.

Variations in extreme precipitation on the Loess Plateau using a high-resolution dataset and their linkages with atmospheric circulation indices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Guangju; Zhai, Jianqing; Tian, Peng; Zhang, Limei; Mu, Xingmin; An, Zhengfeng; Han, Mengwei

2017-08-01

Assessing regional patterns and trends in extreme precipitation is crucial for facilitating flood control and drought adaptation because extreme climate events have more damaging impacts on society and ecosystems than simple shifts in the mean values. In this study, we employed daily precipitation data from 231 climate stations spanning 1961 to 2014 to explore the changes in precipitation extremes on the Loess Plateau, China. Nine of the 12 extreme precipitation indices suggested decreasing trends, and only the annual total wet-day precipitation (PRCPTOT) and R10 declined significantly: - 0.69 mm/a and - 0.023 days/a at the 95% confidence level. The spatial patterns in all of the extreme precipitation indices indicated mixed trends on the Loess Plateau, with decreasing trends in the precipitation extremes at the majority of the stations examined in the Fen-Wei River valley and high-plain plateau. Most of extreme precipitation indices suggested apparent regional differences, whereas R25 and R20 had spatially similar patterns on the Loess Plateau, with many stations revealing no trends. In addition, we found a potential decreasing trend in rainfall amounts and rainy days and increasing trends in rainfall intensities and storm frequencies in some regions due to increasing precipitation events in recent years. The relationships between extreme rainfall events and atmospheric circulation indices suggest that the weakening trend in the East Asia summer monsoon has limited the northward extension of the rainfall belt to northern China, thereby leading to a decrease in rainfall on the Loess Plateau.

Extreme flooding in the West African cities of Dakar and Ouagadougou - atmospheric dynamics and implications for flood risk assessments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Engel, Thomas; Fink, Andreas; Knippertz, Peter

2017-04-01

In this study, two extreme, high-impact events of heavy rainfall and severe floods in West African urban areas (Ouagadougou in 2009, Dakar in 2012) are investigated in terms of their atmospheric causes and statistical return periods. In terms of the synoptic-convective dynamics, the Ouagadougou case is truly exceptional. A succession of two strong and temporarily slow-moving African Easterly Waves (AEWs) caused record-breaking values of tropospheric moisture and low-level relative vorticity, thereby providing the synoptic forcing for the nighttime genesis of Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCSs). Ouagadougou was hit by two successive MCSs, the latter being possible due to the rotation and swift moisture refuelling by the strong convergence in the AEW-related vortex. It is speculated that this case may allow a glimpse of a new type of extreme Sahelian rainstorms. Similarly to the Ouagadougou case, an AEW was instrumental in the overnight development of an MCSs to the east of Dakar, but neither the AEW vortex nor the tropospheric moisture content was as exceptional as in the Ouagadougou case. The Return Value (RV) analysis suggests that TRMM 3B42 data appears to be suitable to estimate centennial RVs using the "peak-over-threshold" approach with a GPD fit, though the good performance might be a result of errors in estimating extreme rainfall over the arid Sahel. On the contrary PERSIANN-CDR is inappropriate for this purpose, despite having a twice as long observational period. The Ouagadougou event also shows that highly unusual dynamical developments can create extreme situations well outside of any RV estimates from century-long daily rainfall observations.

Extremely Durable, Flexible Supercapacitors with Greatly Improved Performance at High Temperatures.

PubMed

Kim, Sung-Kon; Kim, Hae Jin; Lee, Jong-Chan; Braun, Paul V; Park, Ho Seok

2015-08-25

The reliability and durability of energy storage devices are as important as their essential characteristics (e.g., energy and power density) for stable power output and long lifespan and thus much more crucial under harsh conditions. However, energy storage under extreme conditions is still a big challenge because of unavoidable performance decays and the inevitable damage of components. Here, we report high-temperature operating, flexible supercapacitors (f-SCs) that can provide reliable power output and extreme durability under severe electrochemical, mechanical, and thermal conditions. The outstanding capacitive features (e.g., ∼40% enhancement of the rate capability and a maximum capacitances of 170 F g(-1) and 18.7 mF cm(-2) at 160 °C) are attributed to facilitated ion transport at elevated temperatures. Under high-temperature operation and/or a flexibility test in both static and dynamic modes at elevated temperatures >100 °C, the f-SCs showed extreme long-term stability of 100000 cycles (>93% of initial capacitance value) and mechanical durability after hundreds of bending cycles (at bend angles of 60-180°). Even at 120 °C, the versatile design of tandem serial and parallel f-SCs was demonstrated to provide both desirable energy and power requirements at high temperatures.

Total ozone patterns over the northern mid-latitudes: spatial correlations, extreme events and dynamical contributions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rieder, H. E.; Staehelin, J.; Maeder, J. A.; Ribatet, M.; Bodeker, G. E.; Davison, A. C.

2009-04-01

Tools from geostatistics and extreme value theory are applied to analyze spatial correlations in total ozone for the northern mid-latitudes. The dataset used in this study is the NIWA combined total ozone dataset (Bodeker et al., 2001; Müller et al., 2008). New tools from extreme value theory (Coles, 2001; Ribatet, 2007) have recently been applied to the world's longest total ozone record from Arosa, Switzerland (e.g. Staehelin 1998a,b), in order to describe extreme events in low and high total ozone (Rieder et al., 200x). Within the current study, patterns in spatial correlation and frequency distributions of extreme events (e.g. ELOs and EHOs) are studied for the northern mid-latitudes. New insights in spatial patterns of total ozone for the northern mid-latitudes are presented. Koch et al. (2005) found that the increase in fast isentropic transport of tropical air to northern mid-latitudes contributed significantly to ozone changes between 1980 and 1989. Within this study the influence of changes in atmospheric dynamics (e.g. tropospheric and lower stratospheric pressure systems) on column ozone over the northern mid-latitudes is analyzed for the time period 1979-2007. References: Bodeker, G.E., J.C. Scott, K. Kreher, and R.L. McKenzie, Global ozone trends in potential vorticity coordinates using TOMS and GOME intercompared against the Dobson network: 1978-1998, J. Geophys. Res., 106 (D19), 23029-23042, 2001. Coles, S.: An Introduction to Statistical Modeling of Extreme Values, Springer Series in Statistics, ISBN:1852334592, Springer, Berlin, 2001. Koch, G., H. Wernli, C. Schwierz, J. Staehelin, and T. Peter (2005), A composite study on the structure and formation of ozone miniholes and minihighs over central Europe, Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L12810, doi:10.1029/2004GL022062. Müller, R., Grooß, J.-U., Lemmen, C., Heinze, D., Dameris, M., and Bodeker, G.: Simple measures of ozone depletion in the polar stratosphere, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 8, 251-264, 2008. Ribatet, M.: POT: Modelling peaks over a threshold, R News, 7, 34-36, 2007. Rieder, H.E., Staehelin, J., Maeder, J.A., Ribatet, M., Stübi, R., Weihs, P., Holawe, F., Peter, T., and Davison, A.C.: From ozone mini holes and mini highs towards extreme value theory: New insights from extreme events and non stationarity, submitted to J. Geophys. Res., 200x. Staehelin, J., Kegel, R., and Harris, N. R.: Trend analysis of the homogenized total ozone series of Arosa (Switzerland), 1929-1996, J. Geophys. Res., 103(D7), 8389-8400, doi:10.1029/97JD03650, 1998a. Staehelin, J., Renaud, A., Bader, J., McPeters, R., Viatte, P., Hoegger, B., Bugnion, V., Giroud, M., and Schill, H.: Total ozone series at Arosa (Switzerland): Homogenization and data comparison, J. Geophys. Res., 103(D5), 5827-5842, doi:10.1029/97JD02402, 1998b.

Total ozone patterns over the southern mid-latitudes: spatial correlations, extreme events and dynamical contributions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rieder, Harald E.; di Rocco, Stefania; Staehelin, Johannes; Maeder, Jörg A.; Ribatet, Mathieu; Peter, Thomas; Davison, Anthony C.

2010-05-01

Tools from geostatistics and extreme value theory are applied to analyze spatial correlations in total ozone for the southern mid-latitudes. The dataset used in this study is the NIWA-assimilated total ozone dataset (Bodeker et al., 2001; Müller et al., 2008). Recently new tools from extreme value theory (Coles, 2001; Ribatet, 2007) have been applied to the world's longest total ozone record from Arosa, Switzerland (e.g. Staehelin 1998a,b) and 5 other long-term ground based stations to describe extreme events in low and high total ozone (Rieder et al., 2010a,b,c). Excursions in the frequency of extreme events reveal "fingerprints" of dynamical factors such as ENSO or NAO, and chemical factors, such as cold Arctic vortex ozone losses, as well as major volcanic eruptions of the 20th century (e.g. Gunung Agung, El Chichón, Mt. Pinatubo). Furthermore, atmospheric loading in ozone depleting substances lead to a continuous modification of column ozone in the northern hemisphere also with respect to extreme values (partly again in connection with polar vortex contributions). It is shown that application of extreme value theory allows the identification of many more of such fingerprints than conventional time series analysis on basis of annual and seasonal mean values. Especially, the analysis shows the strong influence of dynamics, revealing that even moderate ENSO and NAO events have a discernible effect on total ozone (Rieder et al., 2010b,c). Within the current study patterns in spatial correlation and frequency distributions of extreme events (e.g. ELOs and EHOs) are studied for the southern mid-latitudes. It is analyzed if "fingerprints"found for features in the northern hemisphere occur also in the southern mid-latitudes. New insights in spatial patterns of total ozone for the southern mid-latitudes are presented. Within this study the influence of changes in atmospheric dynamics (e.g. tropospheric and lower stratospheric pressure systems, ENSO) as well as influence of major volcanic eruptions (e.g. Mt. Pinatubo) and ozone depleting substances (ODS) on column ozone over the southern mid-latitudes is analyzed for the time period 1979-2007. References: Bodeker, G.E., J.C. Scott, K. Kreher, and R.L. McKenzie, Global ozone trends in potential vorticity coordinates using TOMS and GOME intercompared against the Dobson network: 1978-1998, J. Geophys. Res., 106 (D19), 23029-23042, 2001. Coles, S.: An Introduction to Statistical Modeling of Extreme Values, Springer Series in Statistics, ISBN:1852334592, Springer, Berlin, 2001. Müller, R., Grooß, J.-U., Lemmen, C., Heinze, D., Dameris, M., and Bodeker, G.: Simple measures of ozone depletion in the polar stratosphere, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 8, 251-264, 2008. Ribatet, M.: POT: Modelling peaks over a threshold, R News, 7, 34-36, 2007. Rieder ,H.E., Staehelin, J., Maeder, J.A., Ribatet, M., Stübi, R., Weihs, P., Holawe, F., Peter, T., and A.D., Davison (2010): Extreme events in total ozone over Arosa - Part I: Application of extreme value theory, to be submitted to ACPD. Rieder, H.E., Staehelin, J., Maeder, J.A., Ribatet, M., Stübi, R., Weihs, P., Holawe, F., Peter, T., and A.D., Davison (2010): Extreme events in total ozone over Arosa - Part II: Fingerprints of atmospheric dynamics and chemistry and effects on mean values and long-term changes, to be submitted to ACPD. Rieder, H.E., Jancso, L.M., Staehelin, J., Maeder, J.A., Ribatet, Peter, T., and A.D., Davison (2010): Extreme events in total ozone over the northern mid-latitudes: A case study based on long-term data sets from 5 ground-based stations, in preparation. Staehelin, J., Kegel, R., and Harris, N. R.: Trend analysis of the homogenized total ozone series of Arosa (Switzerland), 1929-1996, J. Geophys. Res., 103(D7), 8389-8400, doi:10.1029/97JD03650, 1998a. Staehelin, J., Renaud, A., Bader, J., McPeters, R., Viatte, P., Hoegger, B., Bugnion, V., Giroud, M., and Schill, H.: Total ozone series at Arosa (Switzerland): Homogenization and data comparison, J. Geophys. Res., 103(D5), 5827-5842, doi:10.1029/97JD02402, 1998b.

Characterization of Low Noise, Precision Voltage Reference REF5025-HT Under Extreme Temperatures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Patterson, Richard; Hammoud, Ahmad

2010-01-01

The performance of Texas Instruments precision voltage reference REF5025-HT was assessed under extreme temperatures. This low noise, 2.5 V output chip is suitable for use in high temperature down-hole drilling applications, but no data existed on its performance at cryogenic temperatures. The device was characterized in terms of output voltage and supply current at different input voltage levels as a function of temperature between +210 C and -190 C. Line and load regulation characteristics were also established at six load levels and at different temperatures. Restart capability at extreme temperatures and the effects of thermal cycling, covering the test temperature range, on its operation and stability were also investigated. Under no load condition, the voltage reference chip exhibited good stability in its output over the temperature range of -50 C to +200 C. Outside that temperature range, output voltage did change as temperature was changed. For example, at the extreme temperatures of +210 C and - 190 C, the output level dropped to 2.43 V and 2.32 V, respectively as compared to the nominal value of 2.5 V. At cryogenic test temperatures of -100 C and -150 C the output voltage dropped by about 20%. The quiescent supply current of the voltage reference varied slightly with temperature but remained close to its specified value. In terms of line regulation, the device exhibited excellent stability between -50 C and +150 C over the entire input voltage range and load levels. At the other test temperatures, however, while line regulation became poor at cryogenic temperatures of -100 C and below, it suffered slight degradation at the extreme high temperature but only at the high load level of 10 mA. The voltage reference also exhibited very good load regulation with temperature down to -100 C, but its output dropped sharply at +210 C only at the heavy load of 10 mA. The semiconductor chip was able restart at the extreme temperatures of -190 C and +210 C, and the limited thermal cycling did not influence its characteristics and had no impact on its packaging as no structural or physical damage was observed.

Nonparametric functional data estimation applied to ozone data: prediction and extreme value analysis.

PubMed

Quintela-del-Río, Alejandro; Francisco-Fernández, Mario

2011-02-01

The study of extreme values and prediction of ozone data is an important topic of research when dealing with environmental problems. Classical extreme value theory is usually used in air-pollution studies. It consists in fitting a parametric generalised extreme value (GEV) distribution to a data set of extreme values, and using the estimated distribution to compute return levels and other quantities of interest. Here, we propose to estimate these values using nonparametric functional data methods. Functional data analysis is a relatively new statistical methodology that generally deals with data consisting of curves or multi-dimensional variables. In this paper, we use this technique, jointly with nonparametric curve estimation, to provide alternatives to the usual parametric statistical tools. The nonparametric estimators are applied to real samples of maximum ozone values obtained from several monitoring stations belonging to the Automatic Urban and Rural Network (AURN) in the UK. The results show that nonparametric estimators work satisfactorily, outperforming the behaviour of classical parametric estimators. Functional data analysis is also used to predict stratospheric ozone concentrations. We show an application, using the data set of mean monthly ozone concentrations in Arosa, Switzerland, and the results are compared with those obtained by classical time series (ARIMA) analysis. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Investigating NARCCAP Precipitation Extremes via Bivariate Extreme Value Theory (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weller, G. B.; Cooley, D. S.; Sain, S. R.; Bukovsky, M. S.; Mearns, L. O.

2013-12-01

We introduce methodology from statistical extreme value theory to examine the ability of reanalysis-drive regional climate models to simulate past daily precipitation extremes. Going beyond a comparison of summary statistics such as 20-year return values, we study whether the most extreme precipitation events produced by climate model simulations exhibit correspondence to the most extreme events seen in observational records. The extent of this correspondence is formulated via the statistical concept of tail dependence. We examine several case studies of extreme precipitation events simulated by the six models of the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) driven by NCEP reanalysis. It is found that the NARCCAP models generally reproduce daily winter precipitation extremes along the Pacific coast quite well; in contrast, simulation of past daily summer precipitation extremes in a central US region is poor. Some differences in the strength of extremal correspondence are seen in the central region between models which employ spectral nudging and those which do not. We demonstrate how these techniques may be used to draw a link between extreme precipitation events and large-scale atmospheric drivers, as well as to downscale extreme precipitation simulated by a future run of a regional climate model. Specifically, we examine potential future changes in the nature of extreme precipitation along the Pacific coast produced by the pineapple express (PE) phenomenon. A link between extreme precipitation events and a "PE Index" derived from North Pacific sea-surface pressure fields is found. This link is used to study PE-influenced extreme precipitation produced by a future-scenario climate model run.

An operational-oriented approach to the assessment of low probability seismic ground motions for critical infrastructures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garcia-Fernandez, Mariano; Assatourians, Karen; Jimenez, Maria-Jose

2018-01-01

Extreme natural hazard events have the potential to cause significant disruption to critical infrastructure (CI) networks. Among them, earthquakes represent a major threat as sudden-onset events with limited, if any, capability of forecast, and high damage potential. In recent years, the increased exposure of interdependent systems has heightened concern, motivating the need for a framework for the management of these increased hazards. The seismic performance level and resilience of existing non-nuclear CIs can be analyzed by identifying the ground motion input values leading to failure of selected key elements. Main interest focuses on the ground motions exceeding the original design values, which should correspond to low probability occurrence. A seismic hazard methodology has been specifically developed to consider low-probability ground motions affecting elongated CI networks. The approach is based on Monte Carlo simulation, which allows for building long-duration synthetic earthquake catalogs to derive low-probability amplitudes. This approach does not affect the mean hazard values and allows obtaining a representation of maximum amplitudes that follow a general extreme-value distribution. This facilitates the analysis of the occurrence of extremes, i.e., very low probability of exceedance from unlikely combinations, for the development of, e.g., stress tests, among other applications. Following this methodology, extreme ground-motion scenarios have been developed for selected combinations of modeling inputs including seismic activity models (source model and magnitude-recurrence relationship), ground motion prediction equations (GMPE), hazard levels, and fractiles of extreme ground motion. The different results provide an overview of the effects of different hazard modeling inputs on the generated extreme motion hazard scenarios. This approach to seismic hazard is at the core of the risk analysis procedure developed and applied to European CI transport networks within the framework of the European-funded INFRARISK project. Such an operational seismic hazard framework can be used to provide insight in a timely manner to make informed risk management or regulating further decisions on the required level of detail or on the adoption of measures, the cost of which can be balanced against the benefits of the measures in question.

Climate and its change over the Tibetan Plateau and its Surroundings in 1963-2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ding, J.; Cuo, L.

2017-12-01

Tibetan Plateau and its surroundings (TPS, 23°-43°N, 73°-106°E) lies in the southwest of China and includes Tibet Autonomous Region, Qinghai Province, southern Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, part of Gansu Province, western Sichuan Province, and northern Yunnan Province. The region is of strategic importance in water resources because it is the headwater of ten large rivers that support more than 16 billion population. In this study, we use daily temperature maximum and minimum, precipitation and wind speed in 1963-2015 obtained from Climate Data Center of China Meteorological Administration and Qinghai Meteorological Bureau to investigate extreme climate conditions and their changes over the TPS. The extreme events are selected based on annual extreme values and percentiles. Annual extreme value approach produces one value each year for all variables, which enables us to examine the magnitude of extreme events; whereas percentile approach selects extreme values by setting 95th percentile as thresholds for maximum temperature, precipitation and wind speed, and 5th percentile for minimum temperature. Percentile approach not only enables us to investigate the magnitude but also frequency of the extreme events. Also, Mann-Kendall trend and mutation analysis were applied to analyze the changes in mean and extreme conditions. The results will help us understand more about the extreme events during the past five decades on the TPS and will provide valuable information for the upcoming IPCC reports on climate change.

Technology development of protein rich concentrates for nutrition in extreme conditions using soybean and meat by-products.

PubMed

Kalenik, Tatiana K; Costa, Rui; Motkina, Elena V; Kosenko, Tamara A; Skripko, Olga V; Kadnikova, Irina A

2017-01-01

There is a need to develop new foods for participants of expeditions in extreme conditions, which must be self-sufficient. These foods should be light to carry, with a long shelf life, tasty and with  high nutrient density. Currently, protein sources are limited mainly to dried and canned meat. In this work, a protein-rich dried concentrate suitable for extreme expeditions was developed using soya, tomato, milk whey and meat by-products. Protein concentrates were developed using minced beef liver and heart, dehydrated and mixed with a soya protein-lycopene coagulate (SPLC) obtained from a solution prepared with germi- nated soybeans and mixed with tomato paste in milk whey, and finally dried. The technological parameters of pressing SPLC and of drying the protein concentrate were optimized using response surface methodology. The optimized technological parameters to prepare the protein concentrates were obtained, with 70:30 being the ideal ratio of minced meat to SPLC. The developed protein concentrates are characterized by a high calorific value of 376 kcal/100 g of dry product, with a water content of 98 g·kg-1, and 641-644 g·kg-1 of proteins. The essential amino acid indices are 100, with minimum essential amino acid content constitut- ing 100-128% of the FAO standard, depending on the raw meat used. These concentrates are also rich in micronutrients such as β-carotene and vitamin C. Analysis of the nutrient content showed that these non-perishable concentrates present a high nutritional value and complement other widely available vegetable concentrates to prepare a two-course meal. The soups and porridges prepared with these concentrates can be classified as functional foods, and comply with army requirements applicable to food products for extreme conditions.

An application of extreme value theory to the management of a hydroelectric dam.

PubMed

Minkah, Richard

2016-01-01

Assessing the probability of very low or high water levels is an important issue in the management of hydroelectric dams. In the case of the Akosombo dam, very low and high water levels result in load shedding of electrical power and flooding in communities downstream respectively. In this paper, we use extreme value theory to estimate the probability and return period of very low water levels that can result in load shedding or a complete shutdown of the dam's operations. In addition, we assess the probability and return period of high water levels near the height of the dam and beyond. This provides a framework for a possible extension of the dam to sustain the generation of electrical power and reduce the frequency of spillage that causes flooding in communities downstream. The results show that an extension of the dam can reduce the probability and prolong the return period of a flood. In addition, we found a negligible probability of a complete shutdown of the dam due to inadequate water level.

Modelling probabilities of heavy precipitation by regional approaches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gaal, L.; Kysely, J.

2009-09-01

Extreme precipitation events are associated with large negative consequences for human society, mainly as they may trigger floods and landslides. The recent series of flash floods in central Europe (affecting several isolated areas) on June 24-28, 2009, the worst one over several decades in the Czech Republic as to the number of persons killed and the extent of damage to buildings and infrastructure, is an example. Estimates of growth curves and design values (corresponding e.g. to 50-yr and 100-yr return periods) of precipitation amounts, together with their uncertainty, are important in hydrological modelling and other applications. The interest in high quantiles of precipitation distributions is also related to possible climate change effects, as climate model simulations tend to project increased severity of precipitation extremes in a warmer climate. The present study compares - in terms of Monte Carlo simulation experiments - several methods to modelling probabilities of precipitation extremes that make use of ‘regional approaches’: the estimation of distributions of extremes takes into account data in a ‘region’ (‘pooling group’), in which one may assume that the distributions at individual sites are identical apart from a site-specific scaling factor (the condition is referred to as ‘regional homogeneity’). In other words, all data in a region - often weighted in some way - are taken into account when estimating the probability distribution of extremes at a given site. The advantage is that sampling variations in the estimates of model parameters and high quantiles are to a large extent reduced compared to the single-site analysis. We focus on the ‘region-of-influence’ (ROI) method which is based on the identification of unique pooling groups (forming the database for the estimation) for each site under study. The similarity of sites is evaluated in terms of a set of site attributes related to the distributions of extremes. The issue of the size of the region is linked with a built-in test on regional homogeneity of data. Once a pooling group is delineated, weights based on a dissimilarity measure are assigned to individual sites involved in a pooling group, and all (weighted) data are employed in the estimation of model parameters and high quantiles at a given location. The ROI method is compared with the Hosking-Wallis (HW) regional frequency analysis, which is based on delineating fixed regions (instead of flexible pooling groups) and assigning unit weights to all sites in a region. The comparison of the performance of the individual regional models makes use of data on annual maxima of 1-day precipitation amounts at 209 stations covering the Czech Republic, with altitudes ranging from 150 to 1490 m a.s.l. We conclude that the ROI methodology is superior to the HW analysis, particularly for very high quantiles (100-yr return values). Another advantage of the ROI approach is that subjective decisions - unavoidable when fixed regions in the HW analysis are formed - may efficiently be suppressed, and almost all settings of the ROI method may be justified by results of the simulation experiments. The differences between (any) regional method and single-site analysis are very pronounced and suggest that the at-site estimation is highly unreliable. The ROI method is then applied to estimate high quantiles of precipitation amounts at individual sites. The estimates and their uncertainty are compared with those from a single-site analysis. We focus on the eastern part of the Czech Republic, i.e. an area with complex orography and a particularly pronounced role of Mediterranean cyclones in producing precipitation extremes. The design values are compared with precipitation amounts recorded during the recent heavy precipitation events, including the one associated with the flash flood on June 24, 2009. We also show that the ROI methodology may easily be transferred to the analysis of precipitation extremes in climate model outputs. It efficiently reduces (random) variations in the estimates of parameters of the extreme value distributions in individual gridboxes that result from large spatial variability of heavy precipitation, and represents a straightforward tool for ‘weighting’ data from neighbouring gridboxes within the estimation procedure. The study is supported by the Grant Agency of AS CR under project B300420801.

Magnetic storms and solar flares: can be analysed within similar mathematical framework with other extreme events?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Balasis, Georgios; Potirakis, Stelios M.; Papadimitriou, Constantinos; Zitis, Pavlos I.; Eftaxias, Konstantinos

2015-04-01

The field of study of complex systems considers that the dynamics of complex systems are founded on universal principles that may be used to describe a great variety of scientific and technological approaches of different types of natural, artificial, and social systems. We apply concepts of the nonextensive statistical physics, on time-series data of observable manifestations of the underlying complex processes ending up to different extreme events, in order to support the suggestion that a dynamical analogy characterizes the generation of a single magnetic storm, solar flare, earthquake (in terms of pre-seismic electromagnetic signals) , epileptic seizure, and economic crisis. The analysis reveals that all the above mentioned different extreme events can be analyzed within similar mathematical framework. More precisely, we show that the populations of magnitudes of fluctuations included in all the above mentioned pulse-like-type time series follow the traditional Gutenberg-Richter law as well as a nonextensive model for earthquake dynamics, with similar nonextensive q-parameter values. Moreover, based on a multidisciplinary statistical analysis we show that the extreme events are characterized by crucial common symptoms, namely: (i) high organization, high compressibility, low complexity, high information content; (ii) strong persistency; and (iii) existence of clear preferred direction of emerged activities. These symptoms clearly discriminate the appearance of the extreme events under study from the corresponding background noise.

Spatiotemporal variation and statistical characteristic of extreme precipitation in the middle reaches of the Yellow River Basin during 1960-2013

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Yin; Xia, Jun; She, Dunxian

2018-01-01

In recent decades, extreme precipitation events have been a research hotspot worldwide. Based on 12 extreme precipitation indices, the spatiotemporal variation and statistical characteristic of precipitation extremes in the middle reaches of the Yellow River Basin (MRYRB) during 1960-2013 were investigated. The results showed that the values of most extreme precipitation indices (except consecutive dry days (CDD)) increased from the northwest to the southeast of the MRYRB, reflecting that the southeast was the wettest region in the study area. Temporally, the precipitation extremes presented a drying trend with less frequent precipitation events. Generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution was selected to fit the time series of all indices, and the quantiles values under the 50-year return period showed a similar spatial extent with the corresponding precipitation extreme indices during 1960-2013, indicating a higher risk of extreme precipitation in the southeast of the MRYRB. Furthermore, the changes in probability distribution functions of indices for the period of 1960-1986 and 1987-2013 revealed a drying tendency in our study area. Both El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) were proved to have a strong influence on precipitation extremes in the MRYRB. The results of this study are useful to master the change rule of local precipitation extremes, which will help to prevent natural hazards caused.

Synoptic and meteorological drivers of extreme ozone concentrations over Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Otero, Noelia Felipe; Sillmann, Jana; Schnell, Jordan L.; Rust, Henning W.; Butler, Tim

2016-04-01

The present work assesses the relationship between local and synoptic meteorological conditions and surface ozone concentration over Europe in spring and summer months, during the period 1998-2012 using a new interpolated data set of observed surface ozone concentrations over the European domain. Along with local meteorological conditions, the influence of large-scale atmospheric circulation on surface ozone is addressed through a set of airflow indices computed with a novel implementation of a grid-by-grid weather type classification across Europe. Drivers of surface ozone over the full distribution of maximum daily 8-hour average values are investigated, along with drivers of the extreme high percentiles and exceedances or air quality guideline thresholds. Three different regression techniques are applied: multiple linear regression to assess the drivers of maximum daily ozone, logistic regression to assess the probability of threshold exceedances and quantile regression to estimate the meteorological influence on extreme values, as represented by the 95th percentile. The relative importance of the input parameters (predictors) is assessed by a backward stepwise regression procedure that allows the identification of the most important predictors in each model. Spatial patterns of model performance exhibit distinct variations between regions. The inclusion of the ozone persistence is particularly relevant over Southern Europe. In general, the best model performance is found over Central Europe, where the maximum temperature plays an important role as a driver of maximum daily ozone as well as its extreme values, especially during warmer months.

The value of electricity storage in energy-only electricity markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McConnell, D.; Forcey, T.; Sandiford, M.

2015-12-01

Price volatility and the prospect of increasing renewable energy generation have raised interest in the potential opportunities for storage technologies in energy-only electricity markets. In this paper we explore the value of a price-taking storage device in such a market, the National Electricity Market (NEM) in Australia. Our analysis suggests that under optimal operation, there is little value in having more than six hours of storage in this market. However, the inability to perfectly forecast wholesale prices, particularly extreme price spikes, may warrant some additional storage. We found that storage devices effectively provide a similar service as peak generators (such as Open Cycle Gas Turbines) and are similarly dependent on and exposed to extreme price events, with revenue for a merchant generator highly skewed to a few days of the year. In contrast to previous studies, this results in the round trip efficiency of the storage being relatively insignificant. Financing using hedging strategies similar to a peak generator effectively reduces the variability of revenue and exposure of storage to extreme prices. Our case study demonstrates that storage may have a competitive advantage over other peaking generators on the NEM, due to its ability to earn revenue outside of extreme peak events. As a consequence the outlook for storage options on the NEM is dependent on volatility, in turn dependent on capacity requirements. Further to this, increased integration of renewable energy may both depend on storage and improve the outlook for storage in technologies in electricity markets.

Extreme value analysis in biometrics.

PubMed

Hüsler, Jürg

2009-04-01

We review some approaches of extreme value analysis in the context of biometrical applications. The classical extreme value analysis is based on iid random variables. Two different general methods are applied, which will be discussed together with biometrical examples. Different estimation, testing, goodness-of-fit procedures for applications are discussed. Furthermore, some non-classical situations are considered where the data are possibly dependent, where a non-stationary behavior is observed in the data or where the observations are not univariate. A few open problems are also stated.

All Tied Up.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bishara, Monica

1990-01-01

Shows how high school students used foam carpet padding to create forms for still-life drawing. Discusses learning to progress from simple-line drawing to a three-dimensional image. Identifies the drawing of shadows, and extreme light and dark values, as points that need to be emphasized repeatedly. (KM)

Using Biweight M-Estimates in the Two-Sample Problem. 1. Symmetric Populations

DTIC Science & Technology

1982-01-01

to a Student’s t distribution, across a broad range of a - levels . To be conservative, we might wish to approximate "t" by a Student’s t on nine-tenths...n-i0). While the robustness of classical procedures for extreme a - levels has not been investigated, a comparison with the values in Lee and...D’Agostino (1976) indicates that this procedure is highly robust of validity at a - .05, presumably this robustness extends to the extreme a - levels as well

ZnO quantum dot-doped graphene/h-BN/GaN-heterostructure ultraviolet photodetector with extremely high responsivity.

PubMed

Lu, Yanghua; Wu, Zhiqian; Xu, Wenli; Lin, Shisheng

2016-12-02

A ZnO quantum dot  photo-doped graphene/h-BN/GaN-heterostructure ultraviolet photodetector with extremely high responsivity of more than 1915 A W -1 and detectivity of more than 1.02 × 10 13 Jones (Jones = cm Hz 1/2 W -1 ) has been demonstrated. The interfaced h-BN layer increases the barrier height at the graphene/GaN heterojunction, which decreases the dark current and improves the on/off current ratio of the device. The photo-doping effect increases the barrier height and carrier concentration at the graphene/h-BN/GaN heterojunction, thus the responsivity is improved from 1473 A W -1 to 1915 A W -1 and the detectivity is improved from 5.8 × 10 12 to 1.0 × 10 13 Jones. Moreover, all of the responsivity and detectivity values are the highest values among all the graphene-based ultraviolet photodetectors.

The value of crossdating to retain high-frequency variability, climate signals, and extreme events in environmental proxies

Treesearch

Bryan A. Black; Daniel Griffin; Peter van der Sleen; Alan D. Wanamaker; James H. Speer; David C. Frank; David W. Stahle; Neil Pederson; Carolyn A. Copenheaver; Valerie Trouet; Shelly Griffin; Bronwyn M. Gillanders

2016-01-01

High-resolution biogenic and geologic proxies in which one increment or layer is formed per year are crucial to describing natural ranges of environmental variability in Earth's physical and biological systems. However, dating controls are necessary to ensure temporal precision and accuracy; simple counts cannot ensure that all layers are placed correctly in time...

Stable carbon isotopes of HCO3- in oil-field waters-implications for the origin of CO2

USGS Publications Warehouse

Carothers, W.W.; Kharaka, Y.K.

1980-01-01

The ??13C values of dissolved HCO3- in 75 water samples from 15 oil and gas fields (San Joaquin Valley, Calif., and the Houston-Galveston and Corpus Christi areas of Texas) were determined to study the sources of CO2 of the dissolved species and carbonate cements that modify the porosity and permeability of many petroleum reservoir rocks. The reservoir rocks are sandstones which range in age from Eocene through Miocene. The ??13C values of total HCO3- indicate that the carbon in the dissolved carbonate species and carbonate cements is mainly of organic origin. The range of ??13C values for the HCO3- of these waters is -20-28 per mil relative to PDB. This wide range of ??13C values is explained by three mechanisms. Microbiological degradation of organic matter appears to be the dominant process controlling the extremely low and high ??13C values of HCO3- in the shallow production zones where the subsurface temperatures are less than 80??C. The extremely low ??13C values (< -10 per mil) are obtained in waters where concentrations of SO42- are more than 25 mg/l and probably result from the degradation of organic acid anions by sulfate-reducing bacteria (SO42- + CH3COO- ??? 2HCO3- + HS-). The high ??13C values probably result from the degradation of these anions by methanogenic bacteria (CH3COO- + H2O ai HCO3- + CH4). Thermal decarboxylation of short-chain aliphatic acid anions (principally acetate) to produce CO2 and CH4 is probably the major source of CO2 for production zones with subsurface temperatures greater than 80??C. The ??13C values of HCO3- for waters from zones with temperatures greater than 100??C result from isotopic equilibration between CO2 and CH4. At these high temperatures, ??13C values of HCO3- decrease with increasing temperatures and decreasing concentrations of these acid anions. ?? 1980.

Estimation of muscle torque in various combat sports.

PubMed

Pędzich, Wioletta; Mastalerz, Andrzej; Sadowski, Jerzy

2012-01-01

The purpose of the research was to compare muscle torque of elite combat groups. Twelve taekwondo WTF athletes, twelve taekwondo ITF athletes and nine boxers participated in the study. Measurements of muscle torques were done under static conditions on a special stand which belonged to the Department of Biomechanics. The sum of muscle torque of lower right and left extremities of relative values was significantly higher for taekwondo WTF athletes than for boxers (16%, p < 0.001 for right and 10%, p < 0.05 for left extremities) and taekwondo ITF (10%, p < 0.05 for right and 8% for left extremities). Taekwondo ITF athletes attained significantly higher absolute muscle torque values than boxers for elbow flexors (20%, p < 0.05 for right and 11% for left extremities) and extensors (14% for right and 18%, p < 0.05 for left extremities) and shoulder flexors (10% for right and 12%, p < 0.05 for left extremities) and extensors (11% for right and 1% for left extremities). Taekwondo WTF and taekwondo ITF athletes obtained significantly different relative values of muscle torque of the hip flexors (16%, p < 0.05) and extensors (11%, p < 0.05) of the right extremities.

The role of copeptin in patients with subarachnoid haemorrage.

PubMed

Zissimopoulos, Athanassios; Vogiatzaki, Theodosia; Babatsikou, Fotini; Velissaratou, Marion; Baloka, Lukia; Karathanos, Evangelos; Pistola, Anastasia; Christofis, Xristos; Iatrou, Xristos

2015-01-01

Subarachnoid haemorrhage is responsible to a great extend for the death rate of patients who are hospitalised in intensive care units (ICU) with haemorrhage. The early detection of its severity plays an important role for the resulting health of the patients. Neurohormone Copeptin is the C-end of pro-arginine vasopressin in plasma has been used as a prognostic marker in a number of various illnesses (acute myocardial infarction, heart and renal failure, acute dyspnoea, intracerebral and subarachnoid haemorrhage, ischaemic stroke, liver cirrhosis, acute pancreatitis). However, its prognostic value in subarachnoid haemorrhage has yet to be valued. The aim of our study was to evaluate copeptin plasma values of patients with subarachnoid haemorrhage hospitalised in the ICU, as a prognostic factor for the severity of this disease. We studied 32 patients, 21 male, 11 female, (average age 59±7 years), who were hospitalised in the ICU of Univ. Hospital of Alexandroupolis. Plasma Copeptin values were measured in the Nuclear Medicine Laboratory, with the Radioimmunoassay (RIA) method. The appropriate kit, from Phoenix Pharmaceuticals Inc. (USA), was used. The x(2) student test was used for statistical analysis. The cut-off value of copeptin ranged between 0.4-4.4 pmol/L. 19 patients showed gradual increase of copeptin values, (125-578 pmol/L), with a bad prognosis of the illness (P<0.005). Four of them with extremely high copeptin values died. Decrease of copeptin values for the rest 15 patients were correlated with the improvement of their clinical condition (P<0.005). Eleven patients appeared to have high values, followed by the gradual decrease by a range of 85-12pmol/L, and had a good prognosis of the condition. Two patients with normal values demonstrated to have a good clinical condition. Patients with a gradual increase of copeptin values showed to have bad prognosis of the disease. Four with extremely high copeptin values passed away, while patients with a gradual decrease or a normal amount of copeptin values had good prognosis. It is supported that copeptin values are a reliable prognostic factor in monitoring patients with intracranial haemorrhage.

Simulation of climate characteristics and extremes of the Volta Basin using CCLM and RCA regional climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Darko, Deborah; Adjei, Kwaku A.; Appiah-Adjei, Emmanuel K.; Odai, Samuel N.; Obuobie, Emmanuel; Asmah, Ruby

2018-06-01

The extent to which statistical bias-adjusted outputs of two regional climate models alter the projected change signals for the mean (and extreme) rainfall and temperature over the Volta Basin is evaluated. The outputs from two regional climate models in the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment for Africa (CORDEX-Africa) are bias adjusted using the quantile mapping technique. Annual maxima rainfall and temperature with their 10- and 20-year return values for the present (1981-2010) and future (2051-2080) climates are estimated using extreme value analyses. Moderate extremes are evaluated using extreme indices (viz. percentile-based, duration-based, and intensity-based). Bias adjustment of the original (bias-unadjusted) models improves the reproduction of mean rainfall and temperature for the present climate. However, the bias-adjusted models poorly reproduce the 10- and 20-year return values for rainfall and maximum temperature whereas the extreme indices are reproduced satisfactorily for the present climate. Consequently, projected changes in rainfall and temperature extremes were weak. The bias adjustment results in the reduction of the change signals for the mean rainfall while the mean temperature signals are rather magnified. The projected changes for the original mean climate and extremes are not conserved after bias adjustment with the exception of duration-based extreme indices.

Extreme risk assessment based on normalized historic loss data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eichner, Jan

2017-04-01

Natural hazard risk assessment and risk management focuses on the expected loss magnitudes of rare and extreme events. Such large-scale loss events typically comprise all aspects of compound events and accumulate losses from multiple sectors (including knock-on effects). Utilizing Munich Re's NatCatSERVICE direct economic loss data, we beriefly recap a novel methodology of peril-specific loss data normalization which improves the stationarity properties of highly non-stationary historic loss data (due to socio-economic growth of assets prone to destructive forces), and perform extreme value analysis (peaks-over-threshold method) to come up with return level estimates of e.g. 100-yr loss event scenarios for various types of perils, globally or per continent, and discuss uncertainty in the results.

Footwear traction and lower extremity noncontact injury.

PubMed

Wannop, John W; Luo, Geng; Stefanyshyn, Darren J

2013-11-01

Football is the most popular high school sport; however, it has the highest rate of injury. Speculation has been prevalent that foot fixation due to high footwear traction contributes to injury risk. Therefore, the purpose of the study was to determine whether a relationship exists between the athlete's specific footwear traction (measured with their own shoes on the field of play) and lower extremity noncontact injury in high school football. For 3 yr, 555 high school football athletes had their footwear traction measured on the actual field of play at the start of the season, and any injury the athletes suffered during a game was recorded. Lower extremity noncontact injury rates, grouped based on the athlete's specific footwear traction (both translational and rotational), were compared. For translational traction, injury rate reached a peak of 23.3 injuries/1000 game exposures within the midrange of translational traction, before decreasing to 5.0 injuries/1000 game exposures in the high range of traction. For rotational traction, there was a steady increase in injury rate as footwear traction increased, starting at 4.2 injuries/1000 game exposures at low traction and reaching 19.2 injuries/1000 game exposures at high traction. A relationship exists between footwear traction and noncontact lower extremity injury, with increases in rotational traction leading to a greater injury rate and increases in translational traction leading to a decrease in injury. It is recommended that athletes consider selecting footwear with the lowest rotational traction values for which no detriment in performance results.

Obtaining the variance of gametic diversity with genomic models

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

It may be possible to use information about the variability among gametes (spermatozoa and ova) to select parents that are more likely than average to produce offspring with extremely high or low breeding values. In this study, statistical formulae were developed to calculate variability among gamet...

Estimating return periods of extreme values from relatively short time series of winds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jonasson, Kristjan; Agustsson, Halfdan; Rognvaldsson, Olafur; Arfeuille, Gilles

2013-04-01

An important factor for determining the prospect of individual wind farm sites is the frequency of extreme winds at hub height. Here, extreme winds are defined as the value of the highest 10 minutes averaged wind speed with a 50 year return period, i.e. annual exceeding probability of 2% (Rodrigo, 2010). A frequently applied method to estimate winds in the lowest few hundred meters above ground is to extrapolate observed 10-meter winds logarithmically to higher altitudes. Recent study by Drechsel et al. (2012) showed however that this methodology is not as accurate as interpolating simulated results from the global ECMWF numerical weather prediction (NWP) model to the desired height. Observations of persistent low level jets near Colima in SW-Mexico also show that the logarithmic approach can give highly inaccurate results for some regions (Arfeuille et al., 2012). To address these shortcomings of limited, and/or poorly representative, observations and extrapolations of winds one can use NWP models to dynamically scale down relatively coarse resolution atmospheric analysis. In the case of limited computing resources one has typically to make a compromise between spatial resolution and the duration of the simulated period, both of which can limit the quality of the wind farm siting. A common method to estimate maximum winds is to fit an extreme value distribution (e.g. Gumbel, gev or Pareto) to the maximum values of each year of available data, or the tail of these values. If data are only available for a short period, e.g. 10 or 15 years, then this will give a rather inaccurate estimate. It is possible to deal with this problem by utilizing monthly or weekly maxima, but this introduces new problems: seasonal variation, autocorrelation of neighboring values, and increased discrepancy between data and fitted distribution. We introduce a new method to estimate return periods of extreme values of winds at hub height from relatively short time series of winds, simulated at a high spatial resolution. REFERENCES Arfeuille, Gilles J. M., A. L. Quintanilla, L. Zizumbo, and F. C. Viesca, 2012. Wind Resource Assessment in a Tropical Region with Complex Terrain using SODAR and a Meteorological Tower Network to Measure Low Level Jets and Boundary Layer Conditions. 15th AMS Conference on Mountain Meteorology, Steam boat Spring, Colorado, USA, August 2012. Available on-line: https://ams.confex.com/ams/15MountMet/webprogram/Manuscript/Paper210184/ARFEUILLLE_etal_15MountMet Conf_Aug2012.pdf Drechsel S., G. J. Mayr, J. W. Messner, and R. Stauffer, 2012: Wind Speeds at Heights Crucial for Wind Energy: Measurements and Verification of Forecasts. J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol., 51, 1602-1617. Rodrigo, J. S., 2010. State-of-the-Art of Wind Resource Assessment. CENER National Renewable Energy Center, Sarriguren, Spain. Available on-line: http://www.waudit-itn.eu/download.php?id=103&parent=79

STAMMEX high resolution gridded daily precipitation dataset over Germany: a new potential for regional precipitation climate research

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zolina, Olga; Simmer, Clemens; Kapala, Alice; Mächel, Hermann; Gulev, Sergey; Groisman, Pavel

2014-05-01

We present new high resolution precipitation daily grids developed at Meteorological Institute, University of Bonn and German Weather Service (DWD) under the STAMMEX project (Spatial and Temporal Scales and Mechanisms of Extreme Precipitation Events over Central Europe). Daily precipitation grids have been developed from the daily-observing precipitation network of DWD, which runs one of the World's densest rain gauge networks comprising more than 7500 stations. Several quality-controlled daily gridded products with homogenized sampling were developed covering the periods 1931-onwards (with 0.5 degree resolution), 1951-onwards (0.25 degree and 0.5 degree), and 1971-2000 (0.1 degree). Different methods were tested to select the best gridding methodology that minimizes errors of integral grid estimates over hilly terrain. Besides daily precipitation values with uncertainty estimates (which include standard estimates of the kriging uncertainty as well as error estimates derived by a bootstrapping algorithm), the STAMMEX data sets include a variety of statistics that characterize temporal and spatial dynamics of the precipitation distribution (quantiles, extremes, wet/dry spells, etc.). Comparisons with existing continental-scale daily precipitation grids (e.g., CRU, ECA E-OBS, GCOS) which include considerably less observations compared to those used in STAMMEX, demonstrate the added value of high-resolution grids for extreme rainfall analyses. These data exhibit spatial variability pattern and trends in precipitation extremes, which are missed or incorrectly reproduced over Central Europe from coarser resolution grids based on sparser networks. The STAMMEX dataset can be used for high-quality climate diagnostics of precipitation variability, as a reference for reanalyses and remotely-sensed precipitation products (including the upcoming Global Precipitation Mission products), and for input into regional climate and operational weather forecast models. We will present numerous application of the STAMMEX grids spanning from case studies of the major Central European floods to long-term changes in different precipitation statistics, including those accounting for the alternation of dry and wet periods and precipitation intensities associated with prolonged rainy episodes.

Intra-arterial Ultra-low-Dose CT Angiography of Lower Extremity in Diabetic Patients

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Özgen, Ali, E-mail: draliozgen@hotmail.com; Sanioğlu, Soner; Bingöl, Uğur Anıl

2016-08-15

PurposeTo image lower extremity arteries by CT angiography using a very low-dose intra-arterial contrast medium in patients with high risk of developing contrast-induced nephropathy (CIN).Materials and MethodsThree cases with long-standing diabetes mellitus and signs of lower extremity atherosclerotic disease were evaluated by CT angiography using 0.1 ml/kg of the body weight of contrast medium given via 10-cm-long 4F introducer by puncturing the CFA. Images were evaluated by an interventional radiologist and a cardiovascular surgeon. Density values of the lower extremity arteries were also calculated. Findings in two cases were compared with digital subtraction angiography images performed for percutaneous revascularization. Blood creatininemore » levels were followed for possible CIN.ResultsIntra-arterial CT angiography images were considered diagnostic in all patients and optimal in one patient. No patient developed CIN after intra-arterial CT angiography, while one patient developed CIN after percutaneous intervention.ConclusionIntra-arterial CT angiography of lower extremity might be performed in selected patients with high risk of developing CIN. Our limited experience suggests that as low as of 0.1 ml/kg of the body weight of contrast medium may result in adequate diagnostic imaging.« less

Analysis of extreme rain and flood events using a regional hydrologically enhanced hydrometeorological system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yucel, Ismail; Onen, Alper

2013-04-01

Evidence is showing that global warming or climate change has a direct influence on changes in precipitation and the hydrological cycle. Extreme weather events such as heavy rainfall and flooding are projected to become much more frequent as climate warms. Regional hydrometeorological system model which couples the atmosphere with physical and gridded based surface hydrology provide efficient predictions for extreme hydrological events. This modeling system can be used for flood forecasting and warning issues as they provide continuous monitoring of precipitation over large areas at high spatial resolution. This study examines the performance of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-Hydro) model that performs the terrain, sub-terrain, and channel routing in producing streamflow from WRF-derived forcing of extreme precipitation events. The capability of the system with different options such as data assimilation is tested for number of flood events observed in basins of western Black Sea Region in Turkey. Rainfall event structures and associated flood responses are evaluated with gauge and satellite-derived precipitation and measured streamflow values. The modeling system shows skills in capturing the spatial and temporal structure of extreme rainfall events and resulted flood hydrographs. High-resolution routing modules activated in the model enhance the simulated discharges.

Causes of Glacier Melt Extremes in the Alps Since 1949

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thibert, E.; Dkengne Sielenou, P.; Vionnet, V.; Eckert, N.; Vincent, C.

2018-01-01

Recent record-breaking glacier melt values are attributable to peculiar extreme events and long-term warming trends that shift averages upward. Analyzing one of the world's longest mass balance series with extreme value statistics, we show that detrending melt anomalies makes it possible to disentangle these effects, leading to a fairer evaluation of the return period of melt extreme values such as 2003, and to characterize them by a more realistic bounded behavior. Using surface energy balance simulations, we show that three independent drivers control melt: global radiation, latent heat, and the amount of snow at the beginning of the melting season. Extremes are governed by large deviations in global radiation combined with sensible heat. Long-term trends are driven by the lengthening of melt duration due to earlier and longer-lasting melting of ice along with melt intensification caused by trends in long-wave irradiance and latent heat due to higher air moisture.

Correlation dimension and phase space contraction via extreme value theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Faranda, Davide; Vaienti, Sandro

2018-04-01

We show how to obtain theoretical and numerical estimates of correlation dimension and phase space contraction by using the extreme value theory. The maxima of suitable observables sampled along the trajectory of a chaotic dynamical system converge asymptotically to classical extreme value laws where: (i) the inverse of the scale parameter gives the correlation dimension and (ii) the extremal index is associated with the rate of phase space contraction for backward iteration, which in dimension 1 and 2, is closely related to the positive Lyapunov exponent and in higher dimensions is related to the metric entropy. We call it the Dynamical Extremal Index. Numerical estimates are straightforward to obtain as they imply just a simple fit to a univariate distribution. Numerical tests range from low dimensional maps, to generalized Henon maps and climate data. The estimates of the indicators are particularly robust even with relatively short time series.

Extreme events in total ozone: Spatio-temporal analysis from local to global scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rieder, Harald E.; Staehelin, Johannes; Maeder, Jörg A.; Ribatet, Mathieu; di Rocco, Stefania; Jancso, Leonhardt M.; Peter, Thomas; Davison, Anthony C.

2010-05-01

Recently tools from extreme value theory (e.g. Coles, 2001; Ribatet, 2007) have been applied for the first time in the field of stratospheric ozone research, as statistical analysis showed that previously used concepts assuming a Gaussian distribution (e.g. fixed deviations from mean values) of total ozone data do not address the internal data structure concerning extremes adequately (Rieder et al., 2010a,b). A case study the world's longest total ozone record (Arosa, Switzerland - for details see Staehelin et al., 1998a,b) illustrates that tools based on extreme value theory are appropriate to identify ozone extremes and to describe the tails of the total ozone record. Excursions in the frequency of extreme events reveal "fingerprints" of dynamical factors such as ENSO or NAO, and chemical factors, such as cold Arctic vortex ozone losses, as well as major volcanic eruptions of the 20th century (e.g. Gunung Agung, El Chichón, Mt. Pinatubo). Furthermore, atmospheric loading in ozone depleting substances led to a continuous modification of column ozone in the northern hemisphere also with respect to extreme values (partly again in connection with polar vortex contributions). It is shown that application of extreme value theory allows the identification of many more such fingerprints than conventional time series analysis of annual and seasonal mean values. Especially, the extremal analysis shows the strong influence of dynamics, revealing that even moderate ENSO and NAO events have a discernible effect on total ozone (Rieder et al., 2010b). Overall the extremes concept provides new information on time series properties, variability, trends and the influence of dynamics and chemistry, complementing earlier analyses focusing only on monthly (or annual) mean values. Findings described above could be proven also for the total ozone records of 5 other long-term series (Belsk, Hohenpeissenberg, Hradec Kralove, Potsdam, Uccle) showing that strong influence of atmospheric dynamics (NAO, ENSO) on total ozone is a global feature in the northern mid-latitudes (Rieder et al., 2010c). In a next step frequency distributions of extreme events are analyzed on global scale (northern and southern mid-latitudes). A specific focus here is whether findings gained through analysis of long-term European ground based stations can be clearly identified as a global phenomenon. By showing results from these three types of studies an overview of extreme events in total ozone (and the dynamical and chemical features leading to those) will be presented from local to global scales. References: Coles, S.: An Introduction to Statistical Modeling of Extreme Values, Springer Series in Statistics, ISBN:1852334592, Springer, Berlin, 2001. Ribatet, M.: POT: Modelling peaks over a threshold, R News, 7, 34-36, 2007. Rieder, H.E., Staehelin, J., Maeder, J.A., Ribatet, M., Stübi, R., Weihs, P., Holawe, F., Peter, T., and A.D., Davison (2010): Extreme events in total ozone over Arosa - Part I: Application of extreme value theory, to be submitted to ACPD. Rieder, H.E., Staehelin, J., Maeder, J.A., Ribatet, M., Stübi, R., Weihs, P., Holawe, F., Peter, T., and A.D., Davison (2010): Extreme events in total ozone over Arosa - Part II: Fingerprints of atmospheric dynamics and chemistry and effects on mean values and long-term changes, to be submitted to ACPD. Rieder, H.E., Jancso, L., Staehelin, J., Maeder, J.A., Ribatet, Peter, T., and A.D., Davison (2010): Extreme events in total ozone over the northern mid-latitudes: A case study based on long-term data sets from 5 ground-based stations, in preparation. Staehelin, J., Renaud, A., Bader, J., McPeters, R., Viatte, P., Hoegger, B., Bugnion, V., Giroud, M., and Schill, H.: Total ozone series at Arosa (Switzerland): Homogenization and data comparison, J. Geophys. Res., 103(D5), 5827-5842, doi:10.1029/97JD02402, 1998a. Staehelin, J., Kegel, R., and Harris, N. R.: Trend analysis of the homogenized total ozone series of Arosa (Switzerland), 1929-1996, J. Geophys. Res., 103(D7), 8389-8400, doi:10.1029/97JD03650, 1998b.

Mo/Si and Mo/Be multilayer thin films on Zerodur substrates for extreme-ultraviolet lithography

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mirkarimi, Paul B.; Bajt, Sasa; Wall, Mark A.

2000-04-01

Multilayer-coated Zerodur optics are expected to play a pivotal role in an extreme-ultraviolet (EUV) lithography tool. Zerodur is a multiphase, multicomponent material that is a much more complicated substrate than commonly used single-crystal Si or fused-silica substrates. We investigate the effect of Zerodur substrates on the performance of high-EUV reflectance Mo/Si and Mo/Be multilayer thin films. For Mo/Si the EUV reflectance had a nearly linear dependence on substrate roughness for roughness values of 0.06-0.36 nm rms, and the FWHM of the reflectance curves (spectral bandwidth) was essentially constant over this range. For Mo/Be the EUV reflectance was observed to decreasemore » more steeply than Mo/Si for roughness values greater than approximately 0.2-0.3 nm. Little difference was observed in the EUV reflectivity of multilayer thin films deposited on different substrates as long as the substrate roughness values were similar. (c) 2000 Optical Society of America.« less

Mo/Si and Mo/Be multilayer thin films on Zerodur substrates for extreme-ultraviolet lithography.

PubMed

Mirkarimi, P B; Bajt, S; Wall, M A

2000-04-01

Multilayer-coated Zerodur optics are expected to play a pivotal role in an extreme-ultraviolet (EUV) lithography tool. Zerodur is a multiphase, multicomponent material that is a much more complicated substrate than commonly used single-crystal Si or fused-silica substrates. We investigate the effect of Zerodur substrates on the performance of high-EUV reflectance Mo/Si and Mo/Be multilayer thin films. For Mo/Si the EUV reflectance had a nearly linear dependence on substrate roughness for roughness values of 0.06-0.36 nm rms, and the FWHM of the reflectance curves (spectral bandwidth) was essentially constant over this range. For Mo/Be the EUV reflectance was observed to decrease more steeply than Mo/Si for roughness values greater than approximately 0.2-0.3 nm. Little difference was observed in the EUV reflectivity of multilayer thin films deposited on different substrates as long as the substrate roughness values were similar.

Mathematical aspects of assessing extreme events for the safety of nuclear plants

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Potempski, Slawomir; Borysiewicz, Mieczyslaw

2015-04-01

In the paper the review of mathematical methodologies applied for assessing low frequencies of rare natural events like earthquakes, tsunamis, hurricanes or tornadoes, floods (in particular flash floods and surge storms), lightning, solar flares, etc., will be given in the perspective of the safety assessment of nuclear plants. The statistical methods are usually based on the extreme value theory, which deals with the analysis of extreme deviation from the median (or the mean). In this respect application of various mathematical tools can be useful, like: the extreme value theorem of Fisher-Tippett-Gnedenko leading to possible choices of general extreme value distributions, or the Pickands-Balkema-de Haan theorem for tail fitting, or the methods related to large deviation theory. In the paper the most important stochastic distributions relevant for performing rare events statistical analysis will be presented. This concerns, for example, the analysis of the data with the annual extreme values (maxima - "Annual Maxima Series" or minima), or the peak values, exceeding given thresholds at some periods of interest ("Peak Over Threshold"), or the estimation of the size of exceedance. Despite of the fact that there is a lack of sufficient statistical data directly containing rare events, in some cases it is still possible to extract useful information from existing larger data sets. As an example one can consider some data sets available from the web sites for floods, earthquakes or generally natural hazards. Some aspects of such data sets will be also presented taking into account their usefulness for the practical assessment of risk for nuclear power plants coming from extreme weather conditions.

Impact Tests of Welded Joints

DTIC Science & Technology

1936-04-01

indicate that good welds by these two last named processes give excellent impact results. Welds subjected to extremely low or high temperature merit...variation with temperature of the ratio of shear to tensile stress developed in the Izod or Charpy test, falls from a high to an exceedingly low value...and Larsen also showed that high nitrogen or oxygen content shifted the "zone of transition" to higher temperatures , and that normalizing shifted the

Tree grades, yields and values for some Appalachian hardwoods

Treesearch

Robert A. Campbell

1951-01-01

Foresters ahve long recognized the need for a better method of appraising standing timber in terms of quality as well as volume of lumber that trees may be expected to produce. Because the range in price between high-grade lumber and low-grade lumber is extremely wide, a stand of high-quality timber is much more valuable than a low-quality stand. In spite of this,...

Extremely high concentration of folates in premature newborns.

PubMed

Zikavska, T; Brucknerova, I

2014-01-01

Extremely high concentration of folates in premature newborns: case reports. Folates are a group of water soluble compounds, which are important for metabolic processes in human body. These are important during periods of rapid cell growth. The most accurate indicator of long-term folate level status in the body is the determination of red blood cell (RBC) folate concentrations. The optimal level of RBC folate is not known in neonatal period. Authors discuss the reasons for extremely high level of RBC folate concentrations. In our work we present the cases of two premature newborns with extremely high level of RBC folate concentrations, which were analyzed immunochemically on the first day of life and after six weeks of life. In both cases we measured RBC folate concentrations on the 1st day of life. After 6 weeks we found extremely high RBC folate concentration level (5516.67 ng/ml) in the first case after RBC transfusions. In second case after two months of life the RBC folate concentration level was doubled (2335.1 ng/ml) until 24 hours after RBC transfusion compared to levels after birth. The normal range of RBC folate values vary in newborns. The upper limit of daily dose of folic acid in pregnancy and neonatal period is not known. On the other hand it is an easily excreted water-soluble vitamin but in premature newborn it can lead to the disruption of metabolic balance and slow its degradation. Some factors can have an impact on RBC folate concentration. Blood transfusion can be one of the main influences on RBC folate concentration. To clarify these mechanisms further studies are required (Ref. 29).

Global Analysis of Empirical Relationships Between Annual Climate and Seasonality of NDVI

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Potter, C. S.

1997-01-01

This study describes the use of satellite data to calibrate a new climate-vegetation greenness function for global change studies. We examined statistical relationships between annual climate indexes (temperature, precipitation, and surface radiation) and seasonal attributes of the AVHRR Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) time series for the mid-1980s in order to refine our empirical understanding of intraannual patterns and global abiotic controls on natural vegetation dynamics. Multiple linear regression results using global l(sup o) gridded data sets suggest that three climate indexes: growing degree days, annual precipitation total, and an annual moisture index together can account to 70-80 percent of the variation in the NDVI seasonal extremes (maximum and minimum values) for the calibration year 1984. Inclusion of the same climate index values from the previous year explained no significant additional portion of the global scale variation in NDVI seasonal extremes. The monthly timing of NDVI extremes was closely associated with seasonal patterns in maximum and minimum temperature and rainfall, with lag times of 1 to 2 months. We separated well-drained areas from l(sup o) grid cells mapped as greater than 25 percent inundated coverage for estimation of both the magnitude and timing of seasonal NDVI maximum values. Predicted monthly NDVI, derived from our climate-based regression equations and Fourier smoothing algorithms, shows good agreement with observed NDVI at a series of ecosystem test locations from around the globe. Regions in which NDVI seasonal extremes were not accurately predicted are mainly high latitude ecosystems and other remote locations where climate station data are sparse.

Extremely large nonsaturating magnetoresistance and ultrahigh mobility due to topological surface states in the metallic Bi2Te3 topological insulator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shrestha, K.; Chou, M.; Graf, D.; Yang, H. D.; Lorenz, B.; Chu, C. W.

2017-05-01

Weak antilocalization (WAL) effects in Bi2Te3 single crystals have been investigated at high and low bulk charge-carrier concentrations. At low charge-carrier density the WAL curves scale with the normal component of the magnetic field, demonstrating the dominance of topological surface states in magnetoconductivity. At high charge-carrier density the WAL curves scale with neither the applied field nor its normal component, implying a mixture of bulk and surface conduction. WAL due to topological surface states shows no dependence on the nature (electrons or holes) of the bulk charge carriers. The observations of an extremely large nonsaturating magnetoresistance and ultrahigh mobility in the samples with lower carrier density further support the presence of surface states. The physical parameters characterizing the WAL effects are calculated using the Hikami-Larkin-Nagaoka formula. At high charge-carrier concentrations, there is a greater number of conduction channels and a decrease in the phase coherence length compared to low charge-carrier concentrations. The extremely large magnetoresistance and high mobility of topological insulators have great technological value and can be exploited in magnetoelectric sensors and memory devices.

Generalized extreme gust wind speeds distributions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cheng, E.; Yeung, C.

2002-01-01

Since summer 1996, the US wind engineers are using the extreme gust (or 3-s gust) as the basic wind speed to quantify the destruction of extreme winds. In order to better understand these destructive wind forces, it is important to know the appropriate representations of these extreme gust wind speeds. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to determine the most suitable extreme value distributions for the annual extreme gust wind speeds recorded in large selected areas. To achieve this objective, we are using the generalized Pareto distribution as the diagnostic tool for determining the types of extreme gust wind speed distributions. The three-parameter generalized extreme value distribution function is, thus, reduced to either Type I Gumbel, Type II Frechet or Type III reverse Weibull distribution function for the annual extreme gust wind speeds recorded at a specific site.With the considerations of the quality and homogeneity of gust wind data collected at more than 750 weather stations throughout the United States, annual extreme gust wind speeds at selected 143 stations in the contiguous United States were used in the study. ?? 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Diamond growth from oxidized carbon sources beneath the Northern Slave Craton, Canada: A δ 13C-N study of eclogite-hosted diamonds from the Jericho kimberlite

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smart, Katie A.; Chacko, Thomas; Stachel, Thomas; Muehlenbachs, Karlis; Stern, Richard A.; Heaman, Larry M.

2011-10-01

Diamonds from high- and low-MgO groups of eclogite xenoliths from the Jericho kimberlite, Slave Craton, Canada were analyzed for carbon isotope compositions and nitrogen contents. Diamonds extracted from the two groups show remarkably different nitrogen abundances and δ 13C values. While diamonds from high-MgO eclogites have low nitrogen contents (5-82 ppm) and extremely low δ 13C values clustering at ˜-40‰, diamonds from the low-MgO eclogites have high nitrogen contents (>1200 ppm) and δ 13C values from -3.5‰ to -5.3‰. Coupled cathodoluminescence (CL) imaging and SIMS analysis of the Jericho diamonds provides insight into diamond growth processes. Diamonds from the high-MgO eclogites display little CL structure and generally have constant δ 13C values and nitrogen contents. Some of these diamonds have secondary rims with increasing δ 13C values from -40‰ to ˜-34‰, which suggests secondary diamond growth occurred from an oxidized growth medium. The extreme negative δ 13C values of the high-MgO eclogite diamonds cannot be produced by Rayleigh isotopic fractionation of average mantle-derived carbon (-5‰) or carbon derived from typical organic matter (˜-25‰). However, excursions in δ 13C values to -60‰ are known in the organic sedimentary record at ca. 2.7 and 2.0 Ga, such that diamonds from the high-MgO eclogites could have formed from similar organic matter brought into the Slave lithospheric mantle by subduction. SIMS analyses of a diamond from a low-MgO eclogite show an outer core with systematic rimwards increases in δ 13C values coupled with decreases in nitrogen contents, and a rim with pronounced alternating growth zones. The coupled δ 13C-nitrogen data suggest that the diamond precipitated during fractional crystallization from an oxidized fluid/melt from which nitrogen was progressively depleted during growth. Model calculations of the co-variation of δ 13C-N yielded a partition coefficient ( KN) value of 5, indicating that nitrogen is strongly compatible in diamond relative to the growth medium. δ 13C values of diamond cores (-4‰) dictate the growth medium had higher δ 13C values than primary mantle-derived carbon. Therefore, possible carbon sources for the low-MgO eclogite diamonds include oxidized mantle-derived (e.g. protokimberlite or carbonatite) fluids/melts that underwent some fractionation during migration or, devolatilized subducted carbonates.

Analysis of the dependence of extreme rainfalls

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Padoan, Simone; Ancey, Christophe; Parlange, Marc

2010-05-01

The aim of spatial analysis is to quantitatively describe the behavior of environmental phenomena such as precipitation levels, wind speed or daily temperatures. A number of generic approaches to spatial modeling have been developed[1], but these are not necessarily ideal for handling extremal aspects given their focus on mean process levels. The areal modelling of the extremes of a natural process observed at points in space is important in environmental statistics; for example, understanding extremal spatial rainfall is crucial in flood protection. In light of recent concerns over climate change, the use of robust mathematical and statistical methods for such analyses has grown in importance. Multivariate extreme value models and the class of maxstable processes [2] have a similar asymptotic motivation to the univariate Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution , but providing a general approach to modeling extreme processes incorporating temporal or spatial dependence. Statistical methods for max-stable processes and data analyses of practical problems are discussed by [3] and [4]. This work illustrates methods to the statistical modelling of spatial extremes and gives examples of their use by means of a real extremal data analysis of Switzerland precipitation levels. [1] Cressie, N. A. C. (1993). Statistics for Spatial Data. Wiley, New York. [2] de Haan, L and Ferreria A. (2006). Extreme Value Theory An Introduction. Springer, USA. [3] Padoan, S. A., Ribatet, M and Sisson, S. A. (2009). Likelihood-Based Inference for Max-Stable Processes. Journal of the American Statistical Association, Theory & Methods. In press. [4] Davison, A. C. and Gholamrezaee, M. (2009), Geostatistics of extremes. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B. To appear.

Examining global extreme sea level variations on the coast from in-situ and remote observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Menendez, Melisa; Benkler, Anna S.

2017-04-01

The estimation of extreme water level values on the coast is a requirement for a wide range of engineering and coastal management applications. In addition, climate variations of extreme sea levels on the coastal area result from a complex interacting of oceanic, atmospheric and terrestrial processes across a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. In this study, variations of extreme sea level return values are investigated from two available sources of information: in-situ tide-gauge records and satellite altimetry data. Long time series of sea level from tide-gauge records are the most valuable observations since they directly measure water level in a specific coastal location. They have however a number of sources of in-homogeneities that may affect the climate description of extremes when this data source is used. Among others, the presence of gaps, historical time in-homogeneities and jumps in the mean sea level signal are factors that can provide uncertainty in the characterization of the extreme sea level behaviour. Moreover, long records from tide-gauges are sparse and there are many coastal areas worldwide without in-situ available information. On the other hand, with the accumulating altimeter records of several satellite missions from the 1990s, approaching 25 recorded years at the time of writing, it is becoming possible the analysis of extreme sea level events from this data source. Aside the well-known issue of altimeter measurements very close to the coast (mainly due to corruption by land, wet troposphere path delay errors and local tide effects on the coastal area), there are other aspects that have to be considered when sea surface height values estimated from satellite are going to be used in a statistical extreme model, such as the use of a multi-mission product to get long observed periods and the selection of the maxima sample, since altimeter observations do not provide values uniform in time and space. Here, we have compared the extreme values of 'still water level' and 'non-tidal-residual' of in-situ records from the GESLA2 dataset (Woodworth et al. 2016) against the novel coastal altimetry datasets (Cipollini et al. 2016). Seasonal patterns, inter-annual variability and long-term trends are analyzed. Then, a time-dependent extreme model (Menendez et al. 2009) is applied to characterize extreme sea level return values and their variability on the coastal area around the world.

Estimating the Effect of Climate Change on Crop Yields and Farmland Values: The Importance of Extreme Temperatures

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This is a presentation titled Estimating the Effect of Climate Change on Crop Yields and Farmland Values: The Importance of Extreme Temperatures that was given for the National Center for Environmental Economics

Quality-control of an hourly rainfall dataset and climatology of extremes for the UK.

PubMed

Blenkinsop, Stephen; Lewis, Elizabeth; Chan, Steven C; Fowler, Hayley J

2017-02-01

Sub-daily rainfall extremes may be associated with flash flooding, particularly in urban areas but, compared with extremes on daily timescales, have been relatively little studied in many regions. This paper describes a new, hourly rainfall dataset for the UK based on ∼1600 rain gauges from three different data sources. This includes tipping bucket rain gauge data from the UK Environment Agency (EA), which has been collected for operational purposes, principally flood forecasting. Significant problems in the use of such data for the analysis of extreme events include the recording of accumulated totals, high frequency bucket tips, rain gauge recording errors and the non-operation of gauges. Given the prospect of an intensification of short-duration rainfall in a warming climate, the identification of such errors is essential if sub-daily datasets are to be used to better understand extreme events. We therefore first describe a series of procedures developed to quality control this new dataset. We then analyse ∼380 gauges with near-complete hourly records for 1992-2011 and map the seasonal climatology of intense rainfall based on UK hourly extremes using annual maxima, n-largest events and fixed threshold approaches. We find that the highest frequencies and intensities of hourly extreme rainfall occur during summer when the usual orographically defined pattern of extreme rainfall is replaced by a weaker, north-south pattern. A strong diurnal cycle in hourly extremes, peaking in late afternoon to early evening, is also identified in summer and, for some areas, in spring. This likely reflects the different mechanisms that generate sub-daily rainfall, with convection dominating during summer. The resulting quality-controlled hourly rainfall dataset will provide considerable value in several contexts, including the development of standard, globally applicable quality-control procedures for sub-daily data, the validation of the new generation of very high-resolution climate models and improved understanding of the drivers of extreme rainfall.

How changes of climate extremes affect summer and winter crop yields and water productivity in the southeast USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tian, D.; Cammarano, D.

2017-12-01

Modeling changes of crop production at regional scale is important to make adaptation measures for sustainably food supply under global change. In this study, we explore how changing climate extremes in the 20th and 21st century affect maize (summer crop) and wheat (winter crop) yields in an agriculturally important region: the southeast United States. We analyze historical (1950-1999) and projected (2006-2055) precipitation and temperature extremes by calculating the changes of 18 climate extreme indices using the statistically downscaled CMIP5 data from 10 general circulation models (GCMs). To evaluate how these climate extremes affect maize and wheat yields, historical baseline and projected maize and wheat yields under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios are simulated using the DSSAT-CERES maize and wheat models driven by the same downscaled GCMs data. All of the changes are examined at 110 locations over the study region. The results show that most of the precipitation extreme indices do not have notable change; mean precipitation, precipitation intensity, and maximum 1-day precipitation are generally increased; the number of rainy days is decreased. The temperature extreme indices mostly showed increased values on mean temperature, number of high temperature days, diurnal temperature range, consecutive high temperature days, maximum daily maximum temperature, and minimum daily minimum temperature; the number of low temperature days and number of consecutive low temperature days are decreased. The conditional probabilistic relationships between changes in crop yields and changes in extreme indices suggested different responses of crop yields to climate extremes during sowing to anthesis and anthesis to maturity periods. Wheat yields and crop water productivity for wheat are increased due to an increased CO2 concentration and minimum temperature; evapotranspiration, maize yields, and crop water productivity for wheat are decreased owing to the increased temperature extremes. We found the effects of precipitation changes on both yields are relatively uncertain.

Extreme Statistics of Storm Surges in the Baltic Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kulikov, E. A.; Medvedev, I. P.

2017-11-01

Statistical analysis of the extreme values of the Baltic Sea level has been performed for a series of observations for 15-125 years at 13 tide gauge stations. It is shown that the empirical relation between value of extreme sea level rises or ebbs (caused by storm events) and its return period in the Baltic Sea can be well approximated by the Gumbel probability distribution. The maximum values of extreme floods/ebbs of the 100-year recurrence were observed in the Gulf of Finland and the Gulf of Riga. The two longest data series, observed in Stockholm and Vyborg over 125 years, have shown a significant deviation from the Gumbel distribution for the rarest events. Statistical analysis of the hourly sea level data series reveals some asymmetry in the variability of the Baltic Sea level. The probability of rises proved higher than that of ebbs. As for the magnitude of the 100-year recurrence surge, it considerably exceeded the magnitude of ebbs almost everywhere. This asymmetry effect can be attributed to the influence of low atmospheric pressure during storms. A statistical study of extreme values has also been applied to sea level series for Narva over the period of 1994-2000, which were simulated by the ROMS numerical model. Comparisons of the "simulated" and "observed" extreme sea level distributions show that the model reproduces quite satisfactorily extreme floods of "moderate" magnitude; however, it underestimates sea level changes for the most powerful storm surges.

A regional peculiarity of the low-latitude lower ionosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Givishvili, G. V.; Afinogenov, Iu. A.

1985-02-01

Experiments performed with the Al method at frequencies of 2.0 and 2.8 MHz on the ship Akademik Kurchatov during March-June 1976 in the Indian Ocean (28 deg N to 18 deg S, 40-79 deg E) revealed an area (Persian Gulf, 28-24 deg N) with a highly unusual diurnal variation of the ionospheric absorption of radio waves. This peculiarity consisted in extremely small prenoon values of absorption; the difference between the prenoon values and the higher postnoon absorption values at the two frequencies used was considerably higher than the measurement error (+ or - 3 dB). It is suggested that this peculiarity was connected with anomalously high rates of recombination processes in the morning hours in the lower ionosphere in this region.

Data informatics for the Detection, Characterization, and Attribution of Climate Extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Collins, W.; Wehner, M. F.; O'Brien, T. A.; Paciorek, C. J.; Krishnan, H.; Johnson, J. N.; Prabhat, M.

2015-12-01

The potential for increasing frequency and intensity of extremephenomena including downpours, heat waves, and tropical cyclonesconstitutes one of the primary risks of climate change for society andthe environment. The challenge of characterizing these risks is thatextremes represent the "tails" of distributions of atmosphericphenomena and are, by definition, highly localized and typicallyrelatively transient. Therefore very large volumes of observationaldata and projections of future climate are required to quantify theirproperties in a robust manner. Massive data analytics are required inorder to detect individual extremes, accumulate statistics on theirproperties, quantify how these statistics are changing with time, andattribute the effects of anthropogenic global warming on thesestatistics. We describe examples of the suite of techniques the climate communityis developing to address these analytical challenges. The techniquesinclude massively parallel methods for detecting and trackingatmospheric rivers and cyclones; data-intensive extensions togeneralized extreme value theory to summarize the properties ofextremes; and multi-model ensembles of hindcasts to quantify theattributable risk of anthropogenic influence on individual extremes.We conclude by highlighting examples of these methods developed by ourCASCADE (Calibrated and Systematic Characterization, Attribution, andDetection of Extremes) project.

Nanomaterials Commercialization Center

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-02-01

turbine manufacturer). ln the wind energy area , customers clearly stated that the major short-tenn technical need for toughening is in the area of...interactions: • The wind energy composites market for turbine blades is an extremely high growth, high potential opportunity. Potential value ofnano...Wire Takeup System (MTS), with a winding pitch modified to meet the needs of the small diameter wire (- 100J.1m) produced in this reel-to-reelline

Extremely high absolute internal quantum efficiency of photoluminescence in co-doped GaN:Zn,Si

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reshchikov, M. A.; Willyard, A. G.; Behrends, A.; Bakin, A.; Waag, A.

2011-10-01

We report on the fabrication of GaN co-doped with silicon and zinc by metalorganic vapor phase epitaxy and a detailed study of photoluminescence in this material. We observe an exceptionally high absolute internal quantum efficiency of blue photoluminescence in GaN:Zn,Si. The value of 0.93±0.04 has been obtained from several approaches based on rate equations.

Possible High Thermoelectric Power in Semiconducting Carbon Nanotubes ˜A Case Study of Doped One-Dimensional Semiconductors˜

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yamamoto, Takahiro; Fukuyama, Hidetoshi

2018-02-01

We have theoretically investigated the thermoelectric properties of impurity-doped one-dimensional semiconductors, focusing on nitrogen-substituted (N-substituted) carbon nanotubes (CNTs), using the Kubo formula combined with a self-consistent t-matrix approximation. N-substituted CNTs exhibit extremely high thermoelectric power factor (PF) values originating from a characteristic of one-dimensional materials where decrease in the carrier density increase both the electrical conductivity and the Seebeck coefficient in the low-N regime. The chemical potential dependence of the PF values of semiconducting CNTs has also been studied as a field-effect transistor and it turns out that the PF values show a noticeable maximum in the vicinity of the band edges. This result demonstrates that "band-edge engineering" will be crucial for solid development of high-performance thermoelectric materials.

Decay resistance to Botrytis cinerea and quality characteristics during storage of raspberry genotypes

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Raspberries are a delicate, high value crop with an extremely short shelf life exacerbated by postharvest decay caused by Botrytis cinerea Pers. European red raspberry (Rubus idaeus L.) is the most widely grown. Yellow (R. idaeus L.), black (R. occidentalis L.) and purple raspberries (R. ×neglectus ...

An Assessment of Reliability and Validity of a Rubric for Grading APA-Style Introductions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stellmack, Mark A.; Konheim-Kalkstein, Yasmine L.; Manor, Julia E.; Massey, Abigail R.; Schmitz, Julie Ann P.

2009-01-01

This article describes the empirical evaluation of the reliability and validity of a grading rubric for grading APA-style introductions of undergraduate students. Levels of interrater agreement and intrarater agreement were not extremely high but were similar to values reported in the literature for comparably structured rubrics. Rank-order…

Reflections on STEM, Standards, and Disciplinary Focus

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Reed, Philip A.

2018-01-01

Technology Education as a discipline is at a historical point of two extremes. On one hand it is clear that what we do in technology education is highly valued; after all, imitation is said to be the sincerest form of flattery. The proliferation of "Makermania," technical competitions, engineering design in Next Generation Science…

Ground level measurements of air conductivities under Florida thunderstorms

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Blakeslee, Richard J.; Krider, E. P.

1992-01-01

Values of the positive and negative polar conductivities under summer thunderstorms in Florida are highly variable and exhibit a significant electrode effect, but the total conductivity usually remains close to values found in fair weather, 0.4 to 1.8 x 10 exp -14 S/m. With these values a method proposed by Krider and Musser (1982) for estimating the total conductivity from changes in the slope of the electric field recovery following a lightning discharge will be extremely sensitive to small time variations in the local Maxwell current density and must be modified to include these effects.

Regional estimation of extreme suspended sediment concentrations using watershed characteristics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tramblay, Yves; Ouarda, Taha B. M. J.; St-Hilaire, André; Poulin, Jimmy

2010-01-01

SummaryThe number of stations monitoring daily suspended sediment concentration (SSC) has been decreasing since the 1980s in North America while suspended sediment is considered as a key variable for water quality. The objective of this study is to test the feasibility of regionalising extreme SSC, i.e. estimating SSC extremes values for ungauged basins. Annual maximum SSC for 72 rivers in Canada and USA were modelled with probability distributions in order to estimate quantiles corresponding to different return periods. Regionalisation techniques, originally developed for flood prediction in ungauged basins, were tested using the climatic, topographic, land cover and soils attributes of the watersheds. Two approaches were compared, using either physiographic characteristics or seasonality of extreme SSC to delineate the regions. Multiple regression models to estimate SSC quantiles as a function of watershed characteristics were built in each region, and compared to a global model including all sites. Regional estimates of SSC quantiles were compared with the local values. Results show that regional estimation of extreme SSC is more efficient than a global regression model including all sites. Groups/regions of stations have been identified, using either the watershed characteristics or the seasonality of occurrence for extreme SSC values providing a method to better describe the extreme events of SSC. The most important variables for predicting extreme SSC are the percentage of clay in the soils, precipitation intensity and forest cover.

The suitability of a simplified isotope-balance approach to quantify transient groundwater-lake interactions over a decade with climatic extremes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sacks, Laura A.; Lee, Terrie M.; Swancar, Amy

2013-01-01

Groundwater inflow to a subtropical seepage lake was estimated using a transient isotope-balance approach for a decade (2001–2011) with wet and dry climatic extremes. Lake water δ18O ranged from +0.80 to +3.48 ‰, reflecting the 4 m range in stage. The transient δ18O analysis discerned large differences in semiannual groundwater inflow, and the overall patterns of low and high groundwater inflow were consistent with an independent water budget. Despite simplifying assumptions that the isotopic composition of precipitation (δP), groundwater inflow, and atmospheric moisture (δA) were constant, groundwater inflow was within the water-budget error for 12 of the 19 semiannual calculation periods. The magnitude of inflow was over or under predicted during periods of climatic extreme. During periods of high net precipitation from tropical cyclones and El Niño conditions, δP values were considerably more depleted in 18O than assumed. During an extreme dry period, δA values were likely more enriched in 18O than assumed due to the influence of local lake evaporate. Isotope balance results were most sensitive to uncertainties in relative humidity, evaporation, and δ18O of lake water, which can limit precise quantification of groundwater inflow. Nonetheless, the consistency between isotope-balance and water-budget results indicates that this is a viable approach for lakes in similar settings, allowing the magnitude of groundwater inflow to be estimated over less-than-annual time periods. Because lake-water δ18O is a good indicator of climatic conditions, these data could be useful in ground-truthing paleoclimatic reconstructions using isotopic data from lake cores in similar settings.

Arch structure is associated with unique joint work, relative joint contributions and stiffness during landing.

PubMed

Powell, Douglas W; Queen, Robin M; Williams, D S Blaise

2016-10-01

To examine lower extremity joint contributions to a landing task in high-(HA) and low-arched (LA) female athletes by quantifying vertical stiffness, joint work and relative joint contributions to landing. Twenty healthy female recreational athletes (10 HA and 10 LA) performed five barefoot drop landings from a height of 30cm. Three-dimensional kinematics (240Hz) and ground reaction forces (960Hz) were recorded simultaneously. Vertical stiffness, joint work values and relative joint work values were calculated using Visual 3D and MatLab. HA athletes had significantly greater vertical stiffness compared to LA athletes (p=0.013). Though no differences in ankle joint work were observed (p=0.252), HA athletes had smaller magnitudes of knee (p=0.046), hip (p=0.019) and total lower extremity joint work values (p=0.016) compared to LA athletes. HA athletes had greater relative contributions of the ankle (p=0.032) and smaller relative contributions of the hip (p=0.049) compared to LA athletes. No differences in relative contributions of the knee were observed (p=0.255). These findings demonstrate that aberrant foot structure is associated with unique contributions of lower extremity joints to load attenuation during landing. These data may provide insight into the unique injury mechanisms associated with arch height in female athletes. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Stationary and non-stationary extreme value modeling of extreme temperature in Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hasan, Husna; Salleh, Nur Hanim Mohd; Kassim, Suraiya

2014-09-01

Extreme annual temperature of eighteen stations in Malaysia is fitted to the Generalized Extreme Value distribution. Stationary and non-stationary models with trend are considered for each station and the Likelihood Ratio test is used to determine the best-fitting model. Results show that three out of eighteen stations i.e. Bayan Lepas, Labuan and Subang favor a model which is linear in the location parameter. A hierarchical cluster analysis is employed to investigate the existence of similar behavior among the stations. Three distinct clusters are found in which one of them consists of the stations that favor the non-stationary model. T-year estimated return levels of the extreme temperature are provided based on the chosen models.

Evaluating of the spatial heterogeneity of soil loss tolerance and its effects on erosion risk in the carbonate areas of southern China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Yue; Bai, Xiao Yong; Jie Wang, Shi; Qin, Luo Yi; Chao Tian, Yi; Jie Luo, Guang

2017-05-01

Soil loss tolerance (T value) is one of the criteria in determining the necessity of erosion control measures and ecological restoration strategy. However, the validity of this criterion in subtropical karst regions is strongly disputed. In this study, T value is calculated based on soil formation rate by using a digital distribution map of carbonate rock assemblage types. Results indicated a spatial heterogeneity and diversity in soil loss tolerance. Instead of only one criterion, a minimum of three criteria should be considered when investigating the carbonate areas of southern China because the one region, one T value concept may not be applicable to this region. T value is proportionate to the amount of argillaceous material, which determines the surface soil thickness of the formations in homogenous carbonate rock areas. Homogenous carbonate rock, carbonate rock intercalated with clastic rock areas and carbonate/clastic rock alternation areas have T values of 20, 50 and 100 t/(km2 a), and they are extremely, severely and moderately sensitive to soil erosion. Karst rocky desertification (KRD) is defined as extreme soil erosion and reflects the risks of erosion. Thus, the relationship between T value and erosion risk is determined using KRD as a parameter. The existence of KRD land is unrelated to the T value, although this parameter indicates erosion sensitivity. Erosion risk is strongly dependent on the relationship between real soil loss (RL) and T value rather than on either erosion intensity or the T value itself. If RL > > T, then the erosion risk is high despite of a low RL. Conversely, if T > > RL, then the soil is safe although RL is high. Overall, these findings may clarify the heterogeneity of T value and its effect on erosion risk in a karst environment.

Extremophiles: from abyssal to terrestrial ecosystems and possibly beyond

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Canganella, Francesco; Wiegel, Juergen

2011-04-01

The anthropocentric term "extremophile" was introduced more than 30 years ago to describe any organism capable of living and growing under extreme conditions—i.e., particularly hostile to human and to the majority of the known microorganisms as far as temperature, pH, and salinity parameters are concerned. With the further development of studies on microbial ecology and taxonomy, more "extreme" environments were found and more extremophiles were described. Today, many different extremophiles have been isolated from habitats characterized by hydrostatic pressure, aridity, radiations, elevated temperatures, extreme pH values, high salt concentrations, and high solvent/metal concentrations, and it is well documented that these microorganisms are capable of thriving under extreme conditions better than any other organism living on Earth. Extremophiles have also been investigated as far as the search for life in other planets is concerned and even to evaluate the hypothesis that life on Earth came originally from space. Extremophiles are interesting for basic and applied sciences. Particularly fascinating are their structural and physiological features allowing them to stand extremely selective environmental conditions. These properties are often due to specific biomolecules (DNA, lipids, enzymes, osmolites, etc.) that have been studied for years as novel sources for biotechnological applications. In some cases (DNA polymerase, thermostable enzymes), the search was successful and the final application was achieved, but certainly further exploitations are next to come.

On the identification of Dragon Kings among extreme-valued outliers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riva, M.; Neuman, S. P.; Guadagnini, A.

2013-07-01

Extreme values of earth, environmental, ecological, physical, biological, financial and other variables often form outliers to heavy tails of empirical frequency distributions. Quite commonly such tails are approximated by stretched exponential, log-normal or power functions. Recently there has been an interest in distinguishing between extreme-valued outliers that belong to the parent population of most data in a sample and those that do not. The first type, called Gray Swans by Nassim Nicholas Taleb (often confused in the literature with Taleb's totally unknowable Black Swans), is drawn from a known distribution of the tails which can thus be extrapolated beyond the range of sampled values. However, the magnitudes and/or space-time locations of unsampled Gray Swans cannot be foretold. The second type of extreme-valued outliers, termed Dragon Kings by Didier Sornette, may in his view be sometimes predicted based on how other data in the sample behave. This intriguing prospect has recently motivated some authors to propose statistical tests capable of identifying Dragon Kings in a given random sample. Here we apply three such tests to log air permeability data measured on the faces of a Berea sandstone block and to synthetic data generated in a manner statistically consistent with these measurements. We interpret the measurements to be, and generate synthetic data that are, samples from α-stable sub-Gaussian random fields subordinated to truncated fractional Gaussian noise (tfGn). All these data have frequency distributions characterized by power-law tails with extreme-valued outliers about the tail edges.

Extreme summer temperatures in Iberia: health impacts and associated synoptic conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

García-Herrera, R.; Díaz, J.; Trigo, R. M.; Hernández, E.

2005-02-01

This paper examines the effect of extreme summer temperatures on daily mortality in two large cities of Iberia: Lisbon (Portugal) and Madrid (Spain). Daily mortality and meteorological variables are analysed using the same methodology based on Box-Jenkins models. Results reveal that in both cases there is a triggering effect on mortality when maximum daily temperature exceeds a given threshold (34°C in Lisbon and 36°C in Madrid). The impact of most intense heat events is very similar for both cities, with significant mortality values occurring up to 3 days after the temperature threshold has been surpassed. This impact is measured as the percentual increase of mortality associated to a 1°C increase above the threshold temperature. In this respect, Lisbon shows a higher impact, 31%, as compared with Madrid at 21%. The difference can be attributed to demographic and socio-economic factors. Furthermore, the longer life span of Iberian women is critical to explain why, in both cities, females are more susceptible than males to heat effects, with an almost double mortality impact value. The analysis of Sea Level Pressure (SLP), 500hPa geopotential height and temperature fields reveals that, despite being relatively close to each other, Lisbon and Madrid have relatively different synoptic circulation anomalies associated with their respective extreme summer temperature days. The SLP field reveals higher anomalies for Lisbon, but extending over a smaller area. Extreme values in Madrid seem to require a more western location of the Azores High, embracing a greater area over Europe, even if it is not as deep as for Lisbon. The origin of the hot and dry air masses that usually lead to extreme heat days in both cities is located in Northern Africa. However, while Madrid maxima require wind blowing directly from the south, transporting heat from Southern Spain and Northern Africa, Lisbon maxima occur under more easterly conditions, when Northern African air flows over the central Iberian plateau, which had been previously heated.

Modelling hydrological extremes under non-stationary conditions using climate covariates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vasiliades, Lampros; Galiatsatou, Panagiota; Loukas, Athanasios

2013-04-01

Extreme value theory is a probabilistic theory that can interpret the future probabilities of occurrence of extreme events (e.g. extreme precipitation and streamflow) using past observed records. Traditionally, extreme value theory requires the assumption of temporal stationarity. This assumption implies that the historical patterns of recurrence of extreme events are static over time. However, the hydroclimatic system is nonstationary on time scales that are relevant to extreme value analysis, due to human-mediated and natural environmental change. In this study the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution is used to assess nonstationarity in annual maximum daily rainfall and streamflow timeseries at selected meteorological and hydrometric stations in Greece and Cyprus. The GEV distribution parameters (location, scale, and shape) are specified as functions of time-varying covariates and estimated using the conditional density network (CDN) as proposed by Cannon (2010). The CDN is a probabilistic extension of the multilayer perceptron neural network. Model parameters are estimated via the generalized maximum likelihood (GML) approach using the quasi-Newton BFGS optimization algorithm, and the appropriate GEV-CDN model architecture for the selected meteorological and hydrometric stations is selected by fitting increasingly complicated models and choosing the one that minimizes the Akaike information criterion with small sample size correction. For all case studies in Greece and Cyprus different formulations are tested with combinational cases of stationary and nonstationary parameters of the GEV distribution, linear and non-linear architecture of the CDN and combinations of the input climatic covariates. Climatic indices such as the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), which describes atmospheric circulation in the eastern tropical pacific related to El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index that varies on an interdecadal rather than interannual time scale and the atmospheric circulation patterns as expressed by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index are used to express the GEV parameters as functions of the covariates. Results show that the nonstationary GEV model can be an efficient tool to take into account the dependencies between extreme value random variables and the temporal evolution of the climate.

Seeing Red and Shooting Blanks: A Study of Red Quasars and Blank Field X-Ray Sources

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Elvis, Martin; Oliversen, Ronald J. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

We have identified a population of 'blank field sources' (or 'blanks') among the ROSAT (Roentgen Satellite) bright unidentified X-ray sources with faint optical counterparts. The extreme X-ray over optical flux ratio of blank field sources is not compatible with the main classes of X-ray emitters except for extreme BL Lacertae objects at fx/fv is equal to or less than 35. From the analysis of ROSAT archival data we found evidence for only three sources, out of 16, needing absorption in excess of the Galactic value and no indication of variability. We also found evidence for an extended nature for only one of the five blanks with a serendipitous HRI (High Resolution Imager) detection; this source (1WGA J1226.9+3332) was confirmed as a z=0.89 cluster of galaxies. Palomar images reveal the presence of a red (O - E is equal to or greater than 2) counterpart in the X-ray error circle for six blanks. The identification process brought to the discovery of another high z cluster of galaxies, one (possibly extreme) BL Lac and two apparently normal type 1 AGNs (Active Galactic Nuclei). These AGNs, together with four more AGN-like objects seem to form a well defined group: they present type 1 X-ray spectra but red Palomar counterparts. We discuss the possible explanations for the discrepancy between the X-ray and optical data, among which: a suppressed big blue bump emission, an extreme dust to gas (approximately 40 - 60 the Galactic ratio) ratio value and a high redshift (z is greater than or equal to 3.5) QSO (Quasi-Stellar Object) nature. These AGN-like blanks seem to be the bright (and easier to study) analogs of the sources which are being found in deep Chandra observations. Five more blanks have a still an unknown nature.

Extreme between-study homogeneity in meta-analyses could offer useful insights.

PubMed

Ioannidis, John P A; Trikalinos, Thomas A; Zintzaras, Elias

2006-10-01

Meta-analyses are routinely evaluated for the presence of large between-study heterogeneity. We examined whether it is also important to probe whether there is extreme between-study homogeneity. We used heterogeneity tests with left-sided statistical significance for inference and developed a Monte Carlo simulation test for testing extreme homogeneity in risk ratios across studies, using the empiric distribution of the summary risk ratio and heterogeneity statistic. A left-sided P=0.01 threshold was set for claiming extreme homogeneity to minimize type I error. Among 11,803 meta-analyses with binary contrasts from the Cochrane Library, 143 (1.21%) had left-sided P-value <0.01 for the asymptotic Q statistic and 1,004 (8.50%) had left-sided P-value <0.10. The frequency of extreme between-study homogeneity did not depend on the number of studies in the meta-analyses. We identified examples where extreme between-study homogeneity (left-sided P-value <0.01) could result from various possibilities beyond chance. These included inappropriate statistical inference (asymptotic vs. Monte Carlo), use of a specific effect metric, correlated data or stratification using strong predictors of outcome, and biases and potential fraud. Extreme between-study homogeneity may provide useful insights about a meta-analysis and its constituent studies.

Changes in the frequency of extreme air pollution events over the Eastern United States and Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rieder, H. E.; Fiore, A. M.; Fang, Y.; Staehelin, J.

2011-12-01

Over the past few decades, thresholds for national air quality standards, intended to protect public health and welfare, have been lowered repeatedly. At the same time observations, over Europe and the Eastern U.S., demonstrate that extreme air pollution events (high O3 and PM2.5) are typically associated with stagnation events. Recent work showed that in a changing climate high air pollution events are likely to increase in frequency and duration. Within this work we examine meteorological and surface ozone observations from CASTNet over the U.S. and EMEP over Europe and "idealized" simulations with the GFDL AM3 chemistry-climate model, which isolate the role of climate change on air quality. Specifically, we examine an "idealized 1990s" simulation, forced with 20-year mean monthly climatologies for sea surface temperatures and sea ice from observations for 1981-2000, and an "idealized 2090s" simulation forced by the observed climatologies plus the multi-model mean changes in sea surface temperature and sea ice simulated by 19 IPCC AR-4 models under the A1B scenario for 2081-2100. With innovative statistical tools (empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) and statistics of extremes (EVT)), we analyze the frequency distribution of past, present and future extreme air pollution events over the Eastern United States and Europe. The upper tail of observed values at individual stations (e.g., within the CASTNet), i.e., the extremes (maximum daily 8-hour average (MDA8) O3>60ppb) are poorly described by a Gaussian distribution. However, further analysis showed that applying Peak-Over-Threshold-models, better capture the extremes and allows us to estimate return levels of pollution events above certain threshold values of interest. We next apply EOF analysis to identify regions that vary coherently within the ground-based monitoring networks. Over the United States, the first EOF obtained from the model in both the 1990s and 2090s idealized simulations identifies the Northeast as a region that varies coherently. Correlation analysis reveals that this EOF pattern is most strongly expressed in association with high surface temperature and high surface pressure conditions, consistent with previous work showing that observed O3 episodes over this area reflect the combined impacts of stagnation and increased chemical production. Next steps include the extension of this analysis applying EVT tools to the principal component time series associated with this EOF. The combination of EOF and EVT tools applied to the GFDL AM3 1990s vs. 2090s idealized simulations will enable us to quantify changes in the return levels of air pollution extremes. Therefore the combination of observational data and numerical and statistical models should allow us to identify key driving forces between high air pollution events and to estimate changes in the frequency of such events under different climate change scenarios.

Arctic and Tropical Influence on Extreme Precipitation Events, Atmospheric Rivers, and Associated Isotopic Values in the Western U.S.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCabe-Glynn, S. E.; Johnson, K. R.; Zou, Y.; Welker, J. M.; Strong, C.; Rutz, J. J.; Yu, J. Y.; Yoshimura, K.; Sellars, S. L.; Payne, A. E.

2014-12-01

Extreme precipitation events along the U.S. West Coast can result in major damage and are projected by most climate models to increase in frequency and severity. One of the most prevalent extreme precipitation events that occurs along the west coast of North America are known as 'Atmospheric Rivers' (ARs), whereby extensive fluxes of water vapor are transported from the tropics and/or subtropics, delivering substantial precipitation and contributing to flooding when they encounter mountains. This region is particularly vulnerable to ARs, with 30-50% of annual precipitation in this region occurring from just a few AR events. Because of the tropical and/or subtropical origin of ARs, they can carry unique isotopic properties. Here we present the results of analysis of weekly precipitation data and accompanying isotopic values from Giant Forest, in Sequoia National Park, in the southwestern Sierra Nevada Mountains (36.57° N; 118.78° W; 1921m) from 2001 to 2011. To better characterize these events, we focused on the 10 weeks with the highest precipitation totals (all greater than 150 mm) during the study period. We show that nine of the top ten weeks contain documented 'AR' events and that 90% occurred during the negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation. A comparison of extreme precipitation events across the Western U.S. with several key climate indices demonstrate these events occur most frequently when the negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation is in sync with the negative phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the negative or neutral Pacific North American (PNA) pattern. We also demonstrate that central or eastern Pacific location of ENSO sea surface temperature anomalies can further enhance predictive capabilities of the landfall location of extreme precipitation. Stable isotope results show that extreme precipitation events are characterized by highly variable δ18O (-7.20‰ to -19.27‰), however, we find that more negative δ18O values typically occur during the negative PNA pattern. Finally, we will present the results of data comparison with NCAR-NCEP reanalysis, Hysplit back trajectories, and isotope enabled climate model (IsoGSM) results.

Present status and future prospect of coated conductor development and its application in Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shiohara, Y.; Yoshizumi, M.; Izumi, T.; Yamada, Y.

2008-03-01

The current national project on coated conductors using Y-system superconductors has been carried out over the project period (FY2003-FY2007). In this paper, the current status and the future prospect of this project are reviewed. The high performance tape development group, consisting of Fujikura and SRL-NCCC, has worked on the tape by PLD-REBCO superconducting layers on PLD-CeO2/IBAD-GZO buffered substrates. A high product of Ic and L, higher than 112 166 A m, was achieved in a 368 m-304.8 A GdBCO tape whose Ic value is mostly above 350 A/cm in width. The performance under magnetic field was also improved up to 42 A at 3 T in a GdBCO short film with doping of ZrO2. 61 m long GdBCO tape with ZrO2 doping showed a high Ic value of 220 A at self field and 30 A at 3 T. On the other hand, another group focusing on low production cost has worked on TFA-MOD and MOCVD processes. The extremely high Ic value of 735 A/cm-w was obtained in TFA-MOD films on PLD-CeO2/IBAD-GZO/Hastelloy substrate due to the effect of Ba-poor nominal composition. In efforts towards long tape production by the SWCC group, a 200 m long tape with a high Ic value of 200 A/cm-w was obtained using a batch-type furnace. The Ic × L value of this tape was 40 000 A m, which is the highest value in the world obtained by the TFA-MOD process. Based on the above achievements in coated conductor process development, two new additional goals were set in the project. One is the development of extremely low cost tape and the other is the development of the basic technologies for making electric power devices of cables, transformers, motors, current-limiters and cryocoolers. Some of the new investigations have already revealed marvellous results, such as a 15 kW motor, low AC loss coils, low AC loss cables, etc.

Probabilistic description of probable maximum precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ben Alaya, Mohamed Ali; Zwiers, Francis W.; Zhang, Xuebin

2017-04-01

Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) is the key parameter used to estimate probable Maximum Flood (PMF). PMP and PMF are important for dam safety and civil engineering purposes. Even if the current knowledge of storm mechanisms remains insufficient to properly evaluate limiting values of extreme precipitation, PMP estimation methods are still based on deterministic consideration, and give only single values. This study aims to provide a probabilistic description of the PMP based on the commonly used method, the so-called moisture maximization. To this end, a probabilistic bivariate extreme values model is proposed to address the limitations of traditional PMP estimates via moisture maximization namely: (i) the inability to evaluate uncertainty and to provide a range PMP values, (ii) the interpretation that a maximum of a data series as a physical upper limit (iii) and the assumption that a PMP event has maximum moisture availability. Results from simulation outputs of the Canadian Regional Climate Model CanRCM4 over North America reveal the high uncertainties inherent in PMP estimates and the non-validity of the assumption that PMP events have maximum moisture availability. This later assumption leads to overestimation of the PMP by an average of about 15% over North America, which may have serious implications for engineering design.

[Burdens at Admission, Short-term Effects and Predictors of Health Status at Discharge among 1 803 Patients with Fibromyalgia Syndrome].

PubMed

Gerdes, N; Farin, E

2016-10-01

Objective: Taking Fibromyalgia syndrome (FMS) as an example, the article illustrates a problem that to our knowledge has not been addressed in rehabilitation research so far: According to our large dataset, a sizeable proportion of patients had to be sent home with extremely severe burdens (<2 nd percentile in the normal population) at discharge - in spite of good improvements during their stay. Data and methods: Since 2009, patients in the RehaKlinikum Bad Säckingen, an in-patient rehab center for orthopedic-rheumatic diseases, answer the questionnaire "Indicators of Rehabilitation Status" (IRES) at the beginning and the end of their stay. We analysed IRES-data of 1 803 patients with FMS (94% women). In addition to analyses of change, we determined the degrees of severity at admission and discharge on the basis of a comparison with the normative sample of the IRES. In order to predict membership of the high-risk group of patients with still "extremely severe" values at discharge, we performed binary logistic regression analyses. Results: At admission, about 90% of the patients showed either "extreme" (65%<2 nd percentile) or "severe" (27% 2 nd -10 th percentile) values on the IRES summary score as well as on the scores for "psychic status", "pain", "symptoms of orthopedic and cardiovascular diseases", and "functioning in everyday life". In sum, then, FMS-patients have come to rehabilitation with multiple burdens of a severe to extreme degree. At discharge, the mean summary score had improved with a "strong" effect size of SRM=1.07. In spite of these good overall improvements, however, 37.4% of the patients went home with "extreme" burdens remaining, even though almost 60% of them had experienced "strong" (28%) or "relevant" (31%) improvements. The most important predictor of affiliation to this "high-risk group" was - as expected - the IRES summary score at admission. But unexpectedly influential were also some characteristics of social status such as lower household income and lower degrees of education. Conclusion: In rehabilitation research, analyses of change between pre- and post-measurement values should be accompanied by assessments of severity of rehabilitation status at discharge because even good improvements do not necessarily mean that a patient has been rehabilitated successfully. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

Generation of multivariate near shore extreme wave conditions based on an extreme value copula for offshore boundary conditions.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leyssen, Gert; Mercelis, Peter; De Schoesitter, Philippe; Blanckaert, Joris

2013-04-01

Near shore extreme wave conditions, used as input for numerical wave agitation simulations and for the dimensioning of coastal defense structures, need to be determined at a harbour entrance situated at the French North Sea coast. To obtain significant wave heights, the numerical wave model SWAN has been used. A multivariate approach was used to account for the joint probabilities. Considered variables are: wind velocity and direction, water level and significant offshore wave height and wave period. In a first step a univariate extreme value distribution has been determined for the main variables. By means of a technique based on the mean excess function, an appropriate member of the GPD is selected. An optimal threshold for peak over threshold selection is determined by maximum likelihood optimization. Next, the joint dependency structure for the primary random variables is modeled by an extreme value copula. Eventually the multivariate domain of variables was stratified in different classes, each of which representing a combination of variable quantiles with a joint probability, which are used for model simulation. The main variable is the wind velocity, as in the area of concern extreme wave conditions are wind driven. The analysis is repeated for 9 different wind directions. The secondary variable is water level. In shallow waters extreme waves will be directly affected by water depth. Hence the joint probability of occurrence for water level and wave height is of major importance for design of coastal defense structures. Wind velocity and water levels are only dependent for some wind directions (wind induced setup). Dependent directions are detected using a Kendall and Spearman test and appeared to be those with the longest fetch. For these directions, wind velocity and water level extreme value distributions are multivariately linked through a Gumbel Copula. These distributions are stratified into classes of which the frequency of occurrence can be calculated. For the remaining directions the univariate extreme wind velocity distribution is stratified, each class combined with 5 high water levels. The wave height at the model boundaries was taken into account by a regression with the extreme wind velocity at the offshore location. The regression line and the 95% confidence limits where combined with each class. Eventually the wave period is computed by a new regression with the significant wave height. This way 1103 synthetic events were selected and simulated with the SWAN wave model, each of which a frequency of occurrence is calculated for. Hence near shore significant wave heights are obtained with corresponding frequencies. The statistical distribution of the near shore wave heights is determined by sorting the model results in a descending order and accumulating the corresponding frequencies. This approach allows determination of conditional return periods. For example, for the imposed univariate design return periods of 100 years for significant wave height and 30 years for water level, the joint return period for a simultaneous exceedance of both conditions can be computed as 4000 years. Hence, this methodology allows for a probabilistic design of coastal defense structures.

Quantifying variability in fast and slow solar wind: From turbulence to extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tindale, E.; Chapman, S. C.; Moloney, N.; Watkins, N. W.

2017-12-01

Fast and slow solar wind exhibit variability across a wide range of spatiotemporal scales, with evolving turbulence producing fluctuations on sub-hour timescales and the irregular solar cycle modulating the system over many years. Here, we apply the data quantile-quantile (DQQ) method [Tindale and Chapman 2016, 2017] to over 20 years of Wind data, to study the time evolution of the statistical distribution of plasma parameters in fast and slow solar wind. This model-independent method allows us to simultaneously explore the evolution of fluctuations across all scales. We find a two-part functional form for the statistical distributions of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) magnitude and its components, with each region of the distribution evolving separately over the solar cycle. Up to a value of 8nT, turbulent fluctuations dominate the distribution of the IMF, generating the approximately lognormal shape found by Burlaga [2001]. The mean of this core-turbulence region tracks solar cycle activity, while its variance remains constant, independent of the fast or slow state of the solar wind. However, when we test the lognormality of this core-turbulence component over time, we find the model provides a poor description of the data at solar maximum, where sharp peaks in the distribution dominate over the lognormal shape. At IMF values higher than 8nT, we find a separate, extremal distribution component, whose moments are sensitive to solar cycle phase, the peak activity of the cycle and the solar wind state. We further investigate these `extremal' values using burst analysis, where a burst is defined as a continuous period of exceedance over a predefined threshold. This form of extreme value statistics allows us to study the stochastic process underlying the time series, potentially supporting a probabilistic forecast of high-energy events. Tindale, E., and S.C. Chapman (2016), Geophys. Res. Lett., 43(11) Tindale, E., and S.C. Chapman (2017), submitted Burlaga, L.F. (2001), J. Geophys. Res., 106(A8)

Analysis of extreme precipitation characteristics in low mountain areas based on three-dimensional copulas—taking Kuandian County as an example

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Cailin; Ren, Xuehui; Li, Ying

2017-04-01

We defined the threshold of extreme precipitation using detrended fluctuation analysis based on daily precipitation during 1955-2013 in Kuandian County, Liaoning Province. Three-dimensional copulas were introduced to analyze the characteristics of four extreme precipitation factors: the annual extreme precipitation day, extreme precipitation amount, annual average extreme precipitation intensity, and extreme precipitation rate of contribution. The results show that (1) the threshold is 95.0 mm, extreme precipitation events generally occur 1-2 times a year, the average extreme precipitation intensity is 100-150 mm, and the extreme precipitation amount is 100-270 mm accounting for 10 to 37 % of annual precipitation. (2) The generalized extreme value distribution, extreme value distribution, and generalized Pareto distribution are suitable for fitting the distribution function for each element of extreme precipitation. The Ali-Mikhail-Haq (AMH) copula function reflects the joint characteristics of extreme precipitation factors. (3) The return period of the three types has significant synchronicity, and the joint return period and co-occurrence return period have long delay when the return period of the single factor is long. This reflects the inalienability of extreme precipitation factors. The co-occurrence return period is longer than that of the single factor and joint return period. (4) The single factor fitting only reflects single factor information of extreme precipitation but is unrelated to the relationship between factors. Three-dimensional copulas represent the internal information of extreme precipitation factors and are closer to the actual. The copula function is potentially widely applicable for the multiple factors of extreme precipitation.

Heavy metal pollution associated with an abandoned lead-zinc mine in the Kirki region, NE Greece.

PubMed

Nikolaidis, Christos; Zafiriadis, Ilias; Mathioudakis, Vasileios; Constantinidis, Theodore

2010-09-01

The "Agios Philippos" mine in the Kirki region (NE Greece) has been abandoned in 1998 after half a century of ore exploration without a reclamation or remediation plan. This article aims at elucidating the potential environmental risks associated with this site by quantifying pollution in tailing basins, stream waters, stream sediments and agricultural fields. Concentrations of heavy metals in the abandoned mine tailings reached 12,567 mg/kg for Pb, 22,292 mg/kg for Zn, 174 mg/kg for Cd and 241 mg/kg for As. The geoaccumulation index and enrichment factor for these metals were indicative of extremely high contamination (I(geo) > 5) and extremely high enrichment (EF > 40), respectively. Stream waters in the proximity of the mine had an acidic pH equal to 5.96 and a high sulfate content (SO(4)(-2) = 545.5 mg/L), whereas concentrations of Mn, Zn and Cd reached 2,399 microg/L, 7,681 microg/L and 11.2 microg/L. High I(geo) and EF values for Cd, Zn and As in stream sediments indicates that surface water pollution has a historic background, which is typically associated with acid mine drainage. Agricultural fields in the proximity of the mine exhibited high I(geo) and EF values, which were in decreasing order Cd > Pb > Zn > As. These findings urge for an immediate remediation action of the afflicted area.

Compound Extremes and Bunched Black (or Grouped Grey) Swans.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Watkins, Nicholas

2013-04-01

Observed "wild" natural fluctuations may differ substantially in their character. Some events may be genuinely unforeseen (and unforeseeable), as with Taleb's "black swans". These may occur singly, or may have their impact further magnified by being ``bunched" in time. Some of the others may, however, be the rare extreme events from a light-tailed underlying distribution. Studying their occurrence may then be tractable with the methods of extreme value theory [e.g. Coles, 2001], suitably adapted to allow correlation if that is observed to be present. Yet others may belong to a third broad class, described in today's presentation [ reviewed in Watkins, GRL Frontiers, 2013, doi: 10.1002/grl.50103]. Such "bursty" time series may show comparatively frequent high amplitude events, and/or long range correlations between successive values. The frequent large values due to the first of these effects, modelled in economics by Mandelbrot in 1963 using heavy- tailed probability distributions, can give rise to an "IPCC type I" burst composed of successive wild events. Conversely, long range dependence, even in a light-tailed Gaussian model like Mandelbrot and van Ness' fractional Brownian motion, can integrate ``mild" events into an extreme "IPCC type III" burst. I will show how a standard statistical time series model, linear fractional stable motion (LFSM), which descends from the two special cases advocated by Mandelbrot, allows these two effects to be varied independently, and will present results from a preliminary study of such bursts in LFSM. The consequences for burst scaling when low frequency effects due to dissipation (FARIMA models), and multiplicative cascades (such as multifractals) are included will also be discussed, and the physical assumptions and constraints associated with making a given choice of model.

Global Analysis of Empirical Relationships Between Annual Climate and Seasonality of NDVI

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Potter, C. S.; Brooks, V.

1997-01-01

This paper describes the use of satellite data to calibrate a new climate-vegetation greenness relationship for global change studies. We examined statistical relationships between annual climate indexes (temperature, precipitation, and surface radiation) and seasonal attributes If the AVHRR Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) time series for the mid-1980's in order to refine our understanding of intra-annual patterns and global abiotic controls on natural vegetation dynamics. Multiple linear regression results using global 1o gridded data sets suggest that three climate indexes: degree days (growing/chilling), annual precipitation total, and an annual moisture index together can account to 70-80 percent of the geographic variation in the NDVI seasonal extremes (maximum and minimum values) for the calibration year 1984. Inclusion of the same annual climate index values from the previous year explains no substantial additional portion of the global scale variation in NDVI seasonal extremes. The monthly timing of NDVI extremes is closely associated with seasonal patterns in maximum and minimum temperature and rainfall, with lag times of 1 to 2 months. We separated well-drained areas from lo grid cells mapped as greater than 25 percent inundated coverage for estimation of both the magnitude and timing of seasonal NDVI maximum values. Predicted monthly NDVI, derived from our climate-based regression equations and Fourier smoothing algorithms, shows good agreement with observed NDVI for several different years at a series of ecosystem test locations from around the globe. Regions in which NDVI seasonal extremes are not accurately predicted are mainly high latitude zones, mixed and disturbed vegetation types, and other remote locations where climate station data are sparse.

Opioid modulation of ingestive behaviors in woodchucks and racoons.

PubMed

Nizielski, S E; Morley, J E; Gosnell, B A; Seal, U S; Levine, A S

1985-02-01

We have examined the effect on feeding of opioid blockade with naloxone in two species which demonstrate a marked seasonality in their feeding patterns, the racoon (Procyon lotor) and the woodchuck (Marmota monax). Naloxone suppressed food intake in the woodchuck which is a true hibernator. Naloxone failed to suppress food intake in the racoon and, in fact, enhanced intake of a preferred sucrose solution. In the racoon, ir-dynorphine concentrations were extremely high in the hypothalamus compared to the values obtained in rats and woodchucks. We suggest that possible explanations for the lack of responsiveness to opiates in racoons may be their extremely high daily food intake relatively to body mass when compared to woodchucks and rats and the high levels of ir-dynorphin may be sufficient to overcome the inhibitory effect of naloxone. These studies stress the occurrence of species diversity in the response to opioid antagonism.

Extreme Value Theory and the New Sunspot Number Series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Acero, F. J.; Carrasco, V. M. S.; Gallego, M. C.; García, J. A.; Vaquero, J. M.

2017-04-01

Extreme value theory was employed to study solar activity using the new sunspot number index. The block maxima approach was used at yearly (1700-2015), monthly (1749-2016), and daily (1818-2016) scales, selecting the maximum sunspot number value for each solar cycle, and the peaks-over-threshold (POT) technique was used after a declustering process only for the daily data. Both techniques led to negative values for the shape parameters. This implies that the extreme sunspot number value distribution has an upper bound. The return level (RL) values obtained from the POT approach were greater than when using the block maxima technique. Regarding the POT approach, the 110 year (550 and 1100 year) RLs were lower (higher) than the daily maximum observed sunspot number value of 528. Furthermore, according to the block maxima approach, the 10-cycle RL lay within the block maxima daily sunspot number range, as expected, but it was striking that the 50- and 100-cycle RLs were also within that range. Thus, it would seem that the RL is reaching a plateau, and, although one must be cautious, it would be difficult to attain sunspot number values greater than 550. The extreme value trends from the four series (yearly, monthly, and daily maxima per solar cycle, and POT after declustering the daily data) were analyzed with the Mann-Kendall test and Sen’s method. Only the negative trend of the daily data with the POT technique was statistically significant.

Extreme 13C depletions in seawater-derived brines and their implications for the past geochemical carbon cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lazar, Boaz; Erez, Jonathan

1990-12-01

Extreme depletions in the 13C content of the total dissolved inorganic carbon (CT) were found in brines overlying microbial mat communities. Total alkalinity (AT) and CT in the brines suggest that intense photosynthetic activity of the microbial mat communities depletes the CT from the brine. We suggest that this depletion drives a large, kinetic, negative fractionation of carbon isotopes similar to that observed in highly alkaline solutions. In brines of extreme salinity where microbial mat communities no longer exist, the 13C content of the CT increases, probably because photosynthesis no longer dominates the gas-exchange processes. This mechanism explains light carbon-isotope compositions of carbonate rocks from evaporitic sections and bears on the interpretation of δ13C values in bedded stromatolitic limestones that are ca. 3.5 b.y. old.

An approach toward incorporation of global warming effects into Intensity-Duration-Frequency values

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kunkel, K.; Easterling, D. R.

2017-12-01

Rising global temperatures from increasing greenhouse gas concentrations will increase overall atmospheric water vapor concentrations. There is a high level of scientific confidence that this will increase the future intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation events, even in regions where overall precipitation may decrease. For control of runoff from extreme rainfall, infrastructure engineering utilizes design values of rainfall known as Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) values. Use of the existing IDF values, which are based solely on historical climate records, is likely to lead to under-design of runoff control structures, and associated increased flood damages. However, future changes in IDF values are uncertain and probably regionally variable. Our paradigm is that changes in IDF values will result from changes in atmospheric capacity (water vapor concentrations) and opportunity (the number and intensity of heavy precipitation-producing storm systems). Relevant storm systems being investigated include extratropical cyclones and their associated fronts, tropical cyclones, and the North American Monsoon system. The overall approach involves developing IDF adjustment factors for changes in these components of the climate system. The adjustment factors have associated uncertainties, primarily from (1) uncertainties in the future pathway of greenhouse gas emissions and (2) variations among climate models in the sensitivity of the climate system to greenhouse gas concentration changes. In addition to meteorological considerations, the lifetime of projects designed using IDF values is an essential consideration because the IDF values may change substantially during that time. The initial results of this project will be discussed.

Using Publicly Available Data to Construct a Transparent Measure of Health Care Value: A Method and Initial Results.

PubMed

Weeks, William B; Kotzbauer, Gregory R; Weinstein, James N

2016-06-01

Using publicly available Hospital Compare and Medicare data, we found a substantial range of hospital-level performance on quality, expenditure, and value measures for 4 common reasons for admission. Hospitals' ability to consistently deliver high-quality, low-cost care varied across the different reasons for admission. With the exception of coronary artery bypass grafting, hospitals that provided the highest-value care had more beds and a larger average daily census than those providing the lowest-value care. Transparent data like those we present can empower patients to compare hospital performance, make better-informed treatment decisions, and decide where to obtain care for particular health care problems. In the United States, the transition from volume to value dominates discussions of health care reform. While shared decision making might help patients determine whether to get care, transparency in procedure- and hospital-specific value measures would help them determine where to get care. Using Hospital Compare and Medicare expenditure data, we constructed a hospital-level measure of value from a numerator composed of quality-of-care measures (satisfaction, use of timely and effective care, and avoidance of harms) and a denominator composed of risk-adjusted 30-day episode-of-care expenditures for acute myocardial infarction (1,900 hospitals), coronary artery bypass grafting (884 hospitals), colectomy (1,252 hospitals), and hip replacement surgery (1,243 hospitals). We found substantial variation in aggregate measures of quality, cost, and value at the hospital level. Value calculation provided additional richness when compared to assessment based on quality or cost alone: about 50% of hospitals in an extreme quality- (and about 65% more in an extreme cost-) quintile were in the same extreme value quintile. With the exception of coronary artery bypass grafting, higher-value hospitals were larger and had a higher average daily census than lower-value hospitals, but were no more likely to be accredited by the Joint Commission or to have a residency program accredited by the American Council of Graduate Medical Education. While future efforts to compose value measures will certainly be modified and expanded to examine other reasons for admission, the construct that we present could allow patients to transparently compare procedure- and hospital-specific quality, spending, and value and empower them to decide where to obtain care. © 2016 Milbank Memorial Fund.

Impacts of climate change on precipitation and discharge extremes through the use of statistical downscaling approaches in a Mediterranean basin.

PubMed

Piras, Monica; Mascaro, Giuseppe; Deidda, Roberto; Vivoni, Enrique R

2016-02-01

Mediterranean region is characterized by high precipitation variability often enhanced by orography, with strong seasonality and large inter-annual fluctuations, and by high heterogeneity of terrain and land surface properties. As a consequence, catchments in this area are often prone to the occurrence of hydrometeorological extremes, including storms, floods and flash-floods. A number of climate studies focused in the Mediterranean region predict that extreme events will occur with higher intensity and frequency, thus requiring further analyses to assess their effect at the land surface, particularly in small- and medium-sized watersheds. In this study, climate and hydrologic simulations produced within the Climate Induced Changes on the Hydrology of Mediterranean Basins (CLIMB) EU FP7 research project were used to analyze how precipitation extremes propagate into discharge extremes in the Rio Mannu basin (472.5km(2)), located in Sardinia, Italy. The basin hydrologic response to climate forcings in a reference (1971-2000) and a future (2041-2070) period was simulated through the combined use of a set of global and regional climate models, statistical downscaling techniques, and a process based distributed hydrologic model. We analyzed and compared the distribution of annual maxima extracted from hourly and daily precipitation and peak discharge time series, simulated by the hydrologic model under climate forcing. For this aim, yearly maxima were fit by the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution using a regional approach. Next, we discussed commonality and contrasting behaviors of precipitation and discharge maxima distributions to better understand how hydrological transformations impact propagation of extremes. Finally, we show how rainfall statistical downscaling algorithms produce more reliable forcings for hydrological models than coarse climate model outputs. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Detection and Attribution of Simulated Climatic Extreme Events and Impacts: High Sensitivity to Bias Correction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sippel, S.; Otto, F. E. L.; Forkel, M.; Allen, M. R.; Guillod, B. P.; Heimann, M.; Reichstein, M.; Seneviratne, S. I.; Kirsten, T.; Mahecha, M. D.

2015-12-01

Understanding, quantifying and attributing the impacts of climatic extreme events and variability is crucial for societal adaptation in a changing climate. However, climate model simulations generated for this purpose typically exhibit pronounced biases in their output that hinders any straightforward assessment of impacts. To overcome this issue, various bias correction strategies are routinely used to alleviate climate model deficiencies most of which have been criticized for physical inconsistency and the non-preservation of the multivariate correlation structure. We assess how biases and their correction affect the quantification and attribution of simulated extremes and variability in i) climatological variables and ii) impacts on ecosystem functioning as simulated by a terrestrial biosphere model. Our study demonstrates that assessments of simulated climatic extreme events and impacts in the terrestrial biosphere are highly sensitive to bias correction schemes with major implications for the detection and attribution of these events. We introduce a novel ensemble-based resampling scheme based on a large regional climate model ensemble generated by the distributed weather@home setup[1], which fully preserves the physical consistency and multivariate correlation structure of the model output. We use extreme value statistics to show that this procedure considerably improves the representation of climatic extremes and variability. Subsequently, biosphere-atmosphere carbon fluxes are simulated using a terrestrial ecosystem model (LPJ-GSI) to further demonstrate the sensitivity of ecosystem impacts to the methodology of bias correcting climate model output. We find that uncertainties arising from bias correction schemes are comparable in magnitude to model structural and parameter uncertainties. The present study consists of a first attempt to alleviate climate model biases in a physically consistent way and demonstrates that this yields improved simulations of climate extremes and associated impacts. [1] http://www.climateprediction.net/weatherathome/

Nonparametric Regression Subject to a Given Number of Local Extreme Value

DTIC Science & Technology

2001-07-01

compilation report: ADP013708 thru ADP013761 UNCLASSIFIED Nonparametric regression subject to a given number of local extreme value Ali Majidi and Laurie...locations of the local extremes for the smoothing algorithm. 280 A. Majidi and L. Davies 3 The smoothing problem We make the smoothing problem precise...is the solution of QP3. k--oo 282 A. Majidi and L. Davies FiG. 2. The captions top-left, top-right, bottom-left, bottom-right show the result of the

Persistence Mapping Using EUV Solar Imager Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Thompson, B. J.; Young, C. A.

2016-01-01

We describe a simple image processing technique that is useful for the visualization and depiction of gradually evolving or intermittent structures in solar physics extreme-ultraviolet imagery. The technique is an application of image segmentation, which we call "Persistence Mapping," to isolate extreme values in a data set, and is particularly useful for the problem of capturing phenomena that are evolving in both space and time. While integration or "time-lapse" imaging uses the full sample (of size N ), Persistence Mapping rejects (N - 1)/N of the data set and identifies the most relevant 1/N values using the following rule: if a pixel reaches an extreme value, it retains that value until that value is exceeded. The simplest examples isolate minima and maxima, but any quantile or statistic can be used. This paper demonstrates how the technique has been used to extract the dynamics in long-term evolution of comet tails, erupting material, and EUV dimming regions.

Ranking Bias in Association Studies

PubMed Central

Jeffries, Neal O.

2009-01-01

Background It is widely appreciated that genomewide association studies often yield overestimates of the association of a marker with disease when attention focuses upon the marker showing the strongest relationship. For example, in a case-control setting the largest (in absolute value) estimated odds ratio has been found to typically overstate the association as measured in a second, independent set of data. The most common reason given for this observation is that the choice of the most extreme test statistic is often conditional upon first observing a significant p value associated with the marker. A second, less appreciated reason is described here. Under common circumstances it is the multiple testing of many markers and subsequent focus upon those with most extreme test statistics (i.e. highly ranked results) that leads to bias in the estimated effect sizes. Conclusions This bias, termed ranking bias, is separate from that arising from conditioning on a significant p value and may often be a more important factor in generating bias. An analytic description of this bias, simulations demonstrating its extent, and identification of some factors leading to its exacerbation are presented. PMID:19172085

Comparison of Observed Surface Temperatures of 4 Vesta to the KRC Thermal Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Titus, T. N.; Becker, K. J.; Anderson, J. A.; Capria, M. T.; Tosi, F.; DeSanctis, M. C.; Palomba, E.; Grassi, D.; Capaccioni, F.; Ammannito, E.;

Screening for Cellulase Encoding Clones in Metagenomic Libraries.

PubMed

Ilmberger, Nele; Streit, Wolfgang R

2017-01-01

For modern biotechnology there is a steady need to identify novel enzymes. In biotechnological applications, however, enzymes often must function under extreme and nonnatural conditions (i.e., in the presence of solvents, high temperature and/or at extreme pH values). Cellulases have many industrial applications from the generation of bioethanol, a realistic long-term energy source, to the finishing of textiles. These industrial processes require cellulolytic activity under a wide range of pH, temperature, and ionic conditions, and they are usually carried out by mixtures of cellulases. Investigation of the broad diversity of cellulolytic enzymes involved in the natural degradation of cellulose is necessary for optimizing these processes.

More tornadoes in the most extreme U.S. tornado outbreaks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tippett, Michael K.; Lepore, Chiara; Cohen, Joel E.

2016-12-01

Tornadoes and severe thunderstorms kill people and damage property every year. Estimated U.S. insured losses due to severe thunderstorms in the first half of 2016 were $8.5 billion (US). The largest U.S. effects of tornadoes result from tornado outbreaks, which are sequences of tornadoes that occur in close succession. Here, using extreme value analysis, we find that the frequency of U.S. outbreaks with many tornadoes is increasing and that it is increasing faster for more extreme outbreaks. We model this behavior by extreme value distributions with parameters that are linear functions of time or of some indicators of multidecadal climatic variability. Extreme meteorological environments associated with severe thunderstorms show consistent upward trends, but the trends do not resemble those currently expected to result from global warming.

Efficacy and non-target impact of midstory injection in bottomland hardwoods

Treesearch

Derek K. Alkire; Andrew W. Ezell; Andrew B. Self; Stephen Demarais; Bronson K. Strickland

2012-01-01

The need for midstory control in bottomland hardwood regeneration work has been well documented. However, only a few research efforts have documented the efficacy of such efforts and the potential negative effects on non-target stems. This potential negative impact is extremely important in these stands where individual stem values are characteristically high. As part...

A hydro-meteorological model chain to assess the influence of natural variability and impacts of climate change on extreme events and propose optimal water management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

von Trentini, F.; Willkofer, F.; Wood, R. R.; Schmid, F. J.; Ludwig, R.

2017-12-01

The ClimEx project (Climate change and hydrological extreme events - risks and perspectives for water management in Bavaria and Québec) focuses on the effects of climate change on hydro-meteorological extreme events and their implications for water management in Bavaria and Québec. Therefore, a hydro-meteorological model chain is applied. It employs high performance computing capacity of the Leibniz Supercomputing Centre facility SuperMUC to dynamically downscale 50 members of the Global Circulation Model CanESM2 over European and Eastern North American domains using the Canadian Regional Climate Model (RCM) CRCM5. Over Europe, the unique single model ensemble is conjointly analyzed with the latest information provided through the CORDEX-initiative, to better assess the influence of natural climate variability and climatic change in the dynamics of extreme events. Furthermore, these 50 members of a single RCM will enhance extreme value statistics (extreme return periods) by exploiting the available 1500 model years for the reference period from 1981 to 2010. Hence, the RCM output is applied to drive the process based, fully distributed, and deterministic hydrological model WaSiM in high temporal (3h) and spatial (500m) resolution. WaSiM and the large ensemble are further used to derive a variety of hydro-meteorological patterns leading to severe flood events. A tool for virtual perfect prediction shall provide a combination of optimal lead time and management strategy to mitigate certain flood events following these patterns.

High current density ion beam obtained by a transition to a highly focused state in extremely low-energy region.

PubMed

Hirano, Y; Kiyama, S; Fujiwara, Y; Koguchi, H; Sakakita, H

2015-11-01

A high current density (≈3 mA/cm(2)) hydrogen ion beam source operating in an extremely low-energy region (E(ib) ≈ 150-200 eV) has been realized by using a transition to a highly focused state, where the beam is extracted from the ion source chamber through three concave electrodes with nominal focal lengths of ≈350 mm. The transition occurs when the beam energy exceeds a threshold value between 145 and 170 eV. Low-level hysteresis is observed in the transition when E(ib) is being reduced. The radial profiles of the ion beam current density and the low temperature ion current density can be obtained separately using a Faraday cup with a grid in front. The measured profiles confirm that more than a half of the extracted beam ions reaches the target plate with a good focusing profile with a full width at half maximum of ≈3 cm. Estimation of the particle balances in beam ions, the slow ions, and the electrons indicates the possibility that the secondary electron emission from the target plate and electron impact ionization of hydrogen may play roles as particle sources in this extremely low-energy beam after the compensation of beam ion space charge.

The anabolic activity of bone tissue, suppressed by disuse, is normalized by brief exposure to extremely low-magnitude mechanical stimuli

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rubin, C.; Xu, G.; Judex, S.

2001-01-01

It is generally believed that mechanical signals must be large in order to be anabolic to bone tissue. Recent evidence indicates, however, that extremely low-magnitude (<10 microstrain) mechanical signals readily stimulate bone formation if induced at a high frequency. We examined the ability of extremely low-magnitude, high-frequency mechanical signals to restore anabolic bone cell activity inhibited by disuse. Adult female rats were randomly assigned to six groups: baseline control, age-matched control, mechanically stimulated for 10 min/day, disuse (hind limb suspension), disuse interrupted by 10 min/day of weight bearing, and disuse interrupted by 10 min/day of mechanical stimulation. After a 28 day protocol, bone formation rates (BFR) in the proximal tibia of mechanically stimulated rats increased compared with age-matched control (+97%). Disuse alone reduced BFR (-92%), a suppression only slightly curbed when disuse was interrupted by 10 min of weight bearing (-61%). In contrast, disuse interrupted by 10 min per day of low-level mechanical intervention normalized BFR to values seen in age-matched controls. This work indicates that this noninvasive, extremely low-level stimulus may provide an effective biomechanical intervention for the bone loss that plagues long-term space flight, bed rest, or immobilization caused by paralysis.

Exopolysaccharides from extremophiles: from fundamentals to biotechnology.

PubMed

Nicolaus, Barbara; Kambourova, Margarita; Oner, Ebru Toksoy

2010-09-01

Exopolysaccharides (EPSs) make up a substantial component of the extracellular polymers surrounding most microbial cells in extreme environments like Antarctic ecosystems, saline lakes, geothermal springs or deep sea hydrothermal vents. The extremophiles have developed various adaptations, enabling them to compensate for the deleterious effects of extreme conditions, e.g. high temperatures, salt, low pH or temperature, high radiation. Among these adaptation strategies, EPS biosynthesis is one of the most common protective mechanisms. The unusual metabolic pathways revealed in some extremophiles raised interest in extremophilic microorganisms as potential producers of EPSs with novel and unusual characteristics and functional activities under extreme conditions. Even though the accumulated knowledge on the structural and theological properties of EPSs from extremophiles is still very limited, it reveals a variety in properties, which may not be found in more traditional polymers. Both extremophilic microorganisms and their EPSs suggest several biotechnological advantages, like short fermentation processes for thermophiles and easily formed and stable emulsions of EPSs from psychrophiles. Unlike mesophilic producers of EPSs, many of them being pathogenic, extremophilic microorganisms provide non-pathogenic products, appropriate for applications in the food, pharmaceutical and cosmetics industries as emulsifiers, stabilizers, gel agents, coagulants, thickeners and suspending agents. The commercial value of EPSs synthesized by microorganisms from extreme habitats has been established recently.

The end of trend-estimation for extreme floods under climate change?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schulz, Karsten; Bernhardt, Matthias

2016-04-01

An increased risk of flood events is one of the major threats under future climate change conditions. Therefore, many recent studies have investigated trends in flood extreme occurences using historic long-term river discharge data as well as simulations from combined global/regional climate and hydrological models. Severe floods are relatively rare events and the robust estimation of their probability of occurrence requires long time series of data (6). Following a method outlined by the IPCC research community, trends in extreme floods are calculated based on the difference of discharge values exceeding e.g. a 100-year level (Q100) between two 30-year windows, which represents prevailing conditions in a reference and a future time period, respectively. Following this approach, we analysed multiple, synthetically derived 2,000-year trend-free, yearly maximum runoff data generated using three different extreme value distributions (EDV). The parameters were estimated from long term runoff data of four large European watersheds (Danube, Elbe, Rhine, Thames). Both, Q100-values estimated from 30-year moving windows, as well as the subsequently derived trends showed enormous variations with time: for example, estimating the Extreme Value (Gumbel) - distribution for the Danube data, trends of Q100 in the synthetic time-series range from -4,480 to 4,028 m³/s per 100 years (Q100 =10,071m³/s, for reference). Similar results were found when applying other extreme value distributions (Weibull, and log-Normal) to all of the watersheds considered. This variability or "background noise" of estimating trends in flood extremes makes it almost impossible to significantly distinguish any real trend in observed as well as modelled data when such an approach is applied. These uncertainties, even though known in principle are hardly addressed and discussed by the climate change impact community. Any decision making and flood risk management, including the dimensioning of flood protection measures, that is based on such studies might therefore be fundamentally flawed.

The ecology and diversity of microbial eukaryotes in geothermal springs.

PubMed

Oliverio, Angela M; Power, Jean F; Washburne, Alex; Cary, S Craig; Stott, Matthew B; Fierer, Noah

2018-04-16

Decades of research into the Bacteria and Archaea living in geothermal spring ecosystems have yielded great insight into the diversity of life and organismal adaptations to extreme environmental conditions. Surprisingly, while microbial eukaryotes (protists) are also ubiquitous in many environments, their diversity across geothermal springs has mostly been ignored. We used high-throughput sequencing to illuminate the diversity and structure of microbial eukaryotic communities found in 160 geothermal springs with broad ranges in temperature and pH across the Taupō Volcanic Zone in New Zealand. Protistan communities were moderately predictable in composition and varied most strongly across gradients in pH and temperature. Moreover, this variation mirrored patterns observed for bacterial and archaeal communities across the same spring samples, highlighting that there are similar ecological constraints across the tree of life. While extreme pH values were associated with declining protist diversity, high temperature springs harbored substantial amounts of protist diversity. Although protists are often overlooked in geothermal springs and other extreme environments, our results indicate that such environments can host distinct and diverse protistan communities.

Choosing the Mean versus an Extreme Resolution for Intrapersonal Values Conflicts: Is the Mean Usually More Golden?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kinnier, Richard T.

1984-01-01

Examined the resolution of value conflicts in 60 adults who wrote a solution to their conflicts. Compared extreme resolutions with those representing compromise. Compromisers and extremists did not differ in how rationally resolved they were about their solutions but compromisers felt better about their solutions. (JAC)

Modeling extreme PM10 concentration in Malaysia using generalized extreme value distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hasan, Husna; Mansor, Nadiah; Salleh, Nur Hanim Mohd

2015-05-01

Extreme PM10 concentration from the Air Pollutant Index (API) at thirteen monitoring stations in Malaysia is modeled using the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution. The data is blocked into monthly selection period. The Mann-Kendall (MK) test suggests a non-stationary model so two models are considered for the stations with trend. The likelihood ratio test is used to determine the best fitted model and the result shows that only two stations favor the non-stationary model (Model 2) while the other eleven stations favor stationary model (Model 1). The return level of PM10 concentration that is expected to exceed the maximum once within a selected period is obtained.

Free and total thyroid hormones in humans at extreme altitude

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Basu, Minakshi; Pal, K.; Malhotra, A. S.; Prasad, R.; Sawhney, R. C.

1995-03-01

Alterations in circulatory levels of total T4 (TT4), total T3 (TT3), free T4 (FT4), free T3 (FT3), thyrotropin (TSH) and T3 uptake (T3U) were studied in male and female sea-level residents (SLR) at sea level, in Armed forces personnel staying at high altitude (3750 m) for prolonged duration (acclimatized lowlanders, ALL) and in high-altitude natives (HAN). Identical studies were also performed on male ALL who trekked to an extreme altitude of 5080 m and stayed at an altitude of more than 6300 m for about 6 months. The total as well as free thyroid hormones were found to be significantly higher in ALL and HAN as compared to SLR values. Both male as well as female HAN had higher levels of thyroid hormones. The rise in hormone levels in different ALL ethnic groups drawn from amongst the southern and northern parts of the country was more or less identical. In both HAN and ALL a decline in FT3 and FT4 occurred when these subjects trekked at subzero temperatures to extreme altitude of 5080 m but the levels were found to be higher in ALL who stayed at 6300 m for a prolonged duration. Plasma TSH did not show any appreciable change at lower altitudes but was found to be decreased at extreme altitude. The increase in thyroid hormones at high altitude was not due to an increase in hormone binding proteins, since T3U was found to be higher at high altitudes. A decline in TSH and hormone binding proteins and an increase in the free moiety of the hormones is indicative of a subtle degree of tissue hyperthyroidism which may be playing an important role in combating the extreme cold and hypoxic environment of high altitudes.

Rainfall extremes, weather and climatic characterization over complex terrain: A data-driven approach based on signal enhancement methods and extreme value modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pineda, Luis E.; Willems, Patrick

2017-04-01

Weather and climatic characterization of rainfall extremes is both of scientific and societal value for hydrometeorogical risk management, yet discrimination of local and large-scale forcing remains challenging in data-scarce and complex terrain environments. Here, we present an analysis framework that separate weather (seasonal) regimes and climate (inter-annual) influences using data-driven process identification. The approach is based on signal-to-noise separation methods and extreme value (EV) modeling of multisite rainfall extremes. The EV models use a semi-automatic parameter learning [1] for model identification across temporal scales. At weather scale, the EV models are combined with a state-based hidden Markov model [2] to represent the spatio-temporal structure of rainfall as persistent weather states. At climatic scale, the EV models are used to decode the drivers leading to the shift of weather patterns. The decoding is performed into a climate-to-weather signal subspace, built via dimension reduction of climate model proxies (e.g. sea surface temperature and atmospheric circulation) We apply the framework to the Western Andean Ridge (WAR) in Ecuador and Peru (0-6°S) using ground data from the second half of the 20th century. We find that the meridional component of winds is what matters for the in-year and inter-annual variability of high rainfall intensities alongside the northern WAR (0-2.5°S). There, low-level southerly winds are found as advection drivers for oceanic moist of the normal-rainy season and weak/moderate the El Niño (EN) type; but, the strong EN type and its unique moisture surplus is locally advected at lowlands in the central WAR. Moreover, the coastal ridges, south of 3°S dampen meridional airflows, leaving local hygrothermal gradients to control the in-year distribution of rainfall extremes and their anomalies. Overall, we show that the framework, which does not make any prior assumption on the explanatory power of the weather and climate drivers, allows identification of well-known features of the regional climate in a purely data-driven fashion. Thus, this approach shows potential for characterization of precipitation extremes in data-scarce and orographically complex regions in which model reconstructions are the only climate proxies References [1] Mínguez, R., F.J. Méndez, C. Izaguirre, M. Menéndez, and I.J. Losada (2010), Pseudooptimal parameter selection of non-stationary generalized extreme value models for environmental variables, Environ. Modell. Softw. 25, 1592-1607. [2] Pineda, L., P. Willems (2016), Multisite Downscaling of Seasonal Predictions to Daily Rainfall Characteristics over Pacific-Andean River Basins in Ecuador and Peru using a non-homogenous hidden Markov model, J. Hydrometeor, 17(2), 481-498, doi:10.1175/JHM-D-15-0040.1, http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/JHM-D-15-0040.1

First field-based observations of δ2H and δ18O values of precipitation and other water bodies in the Mongolian Gobi desert

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burnik Šturm, Martina; Ganbaatar, Oyunsaikhan; Voigt, Christian C.; Kaczensky, Petra

2017-04-01

Hydrogen (δ2H) and oxygen (δ18O) isotope values of water are widely used to track the global hydrological cycle and the global δ2H and δ18O patterns of precipitation are increasingly used in studies on animal migration, forensics, food authentication and traceability studies. However, δ2H and δ18O values of precipitation spanning one or more years are available for only a few 100 locations worldwide and for many remote areas such as Mongolia data are still scarce. We obtained the first field-based δ2H and δ18O isotope data of event-based precipitation, rivers and other water bodies in the extreme environment of the Dzungarian Gobi desert in SW Mongolia, covering a period of 16 months (1). Our study area is located over 450 km north-east from the nearest IAEA GNIP station (Fukang station, China) from which it is separated by a mountain range at the international border between China and Mongolia. Isotope values of the collected event-based precipitation showed and extreme range and a high seasonal variability with higher and more variable values in summer and lower in winter. The high variability could not be explained by different origin of air masses alone (i.e. NW polar winds over Russia or westerlies over Central Asia; analyzed using back-trajectory HYSPLIT model), but is likely a result of a combination of different processes affecting the isotope values of precipitation in this area. The calculated field-based local meteoric water line (LMWL, δ2H=(7.42±0.16)δ18O-(23.87±3.27)) showed isotopic characteristics of precipitation in an arid region. We observed a slight discrepancy between the filed based and modelled (Online Isotope in Precipitation Calculator, OIPC) LMWL which highlighted the difficulty of modelling the δ2H and δ18O values for areas with extreme climatic conditions and thus emphasized the importance of collecting long-term field-based data. The collected isotopic data of precipitation and other water bodies provide a basis for future studies in this largely understudied region. (1)Burnik Šturm M., Ganbaatar O., Voigt C.C., Kaczensky P. (2016) First field-based observations of δ2H and δ18O values of precipitation, rivers and other water bodies in the Dzungarian Gobi, SW Mongolia. Isotopes in Environmental and Health Studies, doi: 10.1080/10256016.2016.1231184

More tornadoes in the most extreme U.S. tornado outbreaks.

PubMed

Tippett, Michael K; Lepore, Chiara; Cohen, Joel E

2016-12-16

Tornadoes and severe thunderstorms kill people and damage property every year. Estimated U.S. insured losses due to severe thunderstorms in the first half of 2016 were $8.5 billion (US). The largest U.S. effects of tornadoes result from tornado outbreaks, which are sequences of tornadoes that occur in close succession. Here, using extreme value analysis, we find that the frequency of U.S. outbreaks with many tornadoes is increasing and that it is increasing faster for more extreme outbreaks. We model this behavior by extreme value distributions with parameters that are linear functions of time or of some indicators of multidecadal climatic variability. Extreme meteorological environments associated with severe thunderstorms show consistent upward trends, but the trends do not resemble those currently expected to result from global warming. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

An extreme anomaly in stratospheric ozone over Europe in 1940-1942

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brönnimann, S.; Luterbacher, J.; Staehelin, J.; Svendby, T. M.

2004-04-01

Reevaluated historical total ozone data reveal extraordinarily high values over several European sites in 1940-1942, concurrent with extreme climatic anomalies at the Earth's surface. Using historical radiosonde data, reconstructed upper-level fields, and total ozone data from Arosa (Switzerland), Dombås, and Tromsø (Norway), this unusual case of stratosphere-troposphere coupling is analyzed. At Arosa, numerous strong total ozone peaks in all seasons were due to unusually frequent upper troughs over central Europe and related ozone redistribution in the lower stratosphere. At the Norwegian sites, high winter total ozone was most likely caused by major stratospheric warmings in Jan./Feb. 1940, Feb./Mar. 1941, and Feb. 1942. Results demonstrate that the dynamically driven interannual variability of total ozone can be much larger than that estimated based on the past 25-40 years.

High-resolution Fourier-transform extreme ultraviolet photoabsorption spectroscopy of 14N15N

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heays, A. N.; Dickenson, G. D.; Salumbides, E. J.; de Oliveira, N.; Joyeux, D.; Nahon, L.; Lewis, B. R.; Ubachs, W.

2011-12-01

The first comprehensive high-resolution photoabsorption spectrum of 14N15N has been recorded using the Fourier-transform spectrometer attached to the Desirs beamline at the Soleil synchrotron. Observations are made in the extreme ultraviolet and span 100 000-109 000 cm-1 (100-91.7 nm). The observed absorption lines have been assigned to 25 bands and reduced to a set of transition energies, f values, and linewidths. This analysis has verified the predictions of a theoretical model of N2 that simulates its photoabsorption and photodissociation cross section by solution of an isotopomer independent formulation of the coupled-channel Schrödinger equation. The mass dependence of predissociation linewidths and oscillator strengths is clearly evident and many local perturbations of transition energies, strengths, and widths within individual rotational series have been observed.

A Fast SVD-Hidden-nodes based Extreme Learning Machine for Large-Scale Data Analytics.

PubMed

Deng, Wan-Yu; Bai, Zuo; Huang, Guang-Bin; Zheng, Qing-Hua

2016-05-01

Big dimensional data is a growing trend that is emerging in many real world contexts, extending from web mining, gene expression analysis, protein-protein interaction to high-frequency financial data. Nowadays, there is a growing consensus that the increasing dimensionality poses impeding effects on the performances of classifiers, which is termed as the "peaking phenomenon" in the field of machine intelligence. To address the issue, dimensionality reduction is commonly employed as a preprocessing step on the Big dimensional data before building the classifiers. In this paper, we propose an Extreme Learning Machine (ELM) approach for large-scale data analytic. In contrast to existing approaches, we embed hidden nodes that are designed using singular value decomposition (SVD) into the classical ELM. These SVD nodes in the hidden layer are shown to capture the underlying characteristics of the Big dimensional data well, exhibiting excellent generalization performances. The drawback of using SVD on the entire dataset, however, is the high computational complexity involved. To address this, a fast divide and conquer approximation scheme is introduced to maintain computational tractability on high volume data. The resultant algorithm proposed is labeled here as Fast Singular Value Decomposition-Hidden-nodes based Extreme Learning Machine or FSVD-H-ELM in short. In FSVD-H-ELM, instead of identifying the SVD hidden nodes directly from the entire dataset, SVD hidden nodes are derived from multiple random subsets of data sampled from the original dataset. Comprehensive experiments and comparisons are conducted to assess the FSVD-H-ELM against other state-of-the-art algorithms. The results obtained demonstrated the superior generalization performance and efficiency of the FSVD-H-ELM. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Extreme alien light allows survival of terrestrial bacteria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johnson, Neil; Zhao, Guannan; Caycedo, Felipe; Manrique, Pedro; Qi, Hong; Rodriguez, Ferney; Quiroga, Luis

2013-07-01

Photosynthetic organisms provide a crucial coupling between the Sun's energy and metabolic processes supporting life on Earth. Searches for extraterrestrial life focus on seeking planets with similar incident light intensities and environments. However the impact of abnormal photon arrival times has not been considered. Here we present the counterintuitive result that broad classes of extreme alien light could support terrestrial bacterial life whereas sources more similar to our Sun might not. Our detailed microscopic model uses state-of-the-art empirical inputs including Atomic Force Microscopy (AFM) images. It predicts a highly nonlinear survivability for the basic lifeform Rsp. Photometricum whereby toxic photon feeds get converted into a benign metabolic energy supply by an interplay between the membrane's spatial structure and temporal excitation processes. More generally, our work suggests a new handle for manipulating terrestrial photosynthesis using currently-available extreme value statistics photon sources.

The role of extreme orbits in the global organization of periodic regions in parameter space for one dimensional maps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

da Costa, Diogo Ricardo; Hansen, Matheus; Guarise, Gustavo; Medrano-T, Rene O.; Leonel, Edson D.

2016-04-01

We show that extreme orbits, trajectories that connect local maximum and minimum values of one dimensional maps, play a major role in the parameter space of dissipative systems dictating the organization for the windows of periodicity, hence producing sets of shrimp-like structures. Here we solve three fundamental problems regarding the distribution of these sets and give: (i) their precise localization in the parameter space, even for sets of very high periods; (ii) their local and global distributions along cascades; and (iii) the association of these cascades to complicate sets of periodicity. The extreme orbits are proved to be a powerful indicator to investigate the organization of windows of periodicity in parameter planes. As applications of the theory, we obtain some results for the circle map and perturbed logistic map. The formalism presented here can be extended to many other different nonlinear and dissipative systems.

Estimating extreme stream temperatures by the standard deviate method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bogan, Travis; Othmer, Jonathan; Mohseni, Omid; Stefan, Heinz

2006-02-01

It is now widely accepted that global climate warming is taking place on the earth. Among many other effects, a rise in air temperatures is expected to increase stream temperatures indefinitely. However, due to evaporative cooling, stream temperatures do not increase linearly with increasing air temperatures indefinitely. Within the anticipated bounds of climate warming, extreme stream temperatures may therefore not rise substantially. With this concept in mind, past extreme temperatures measured at 720 USGS stream gauging stations were analyzed by the standard deviate method. In this method the highest stream temperatures are expressed as the mean temperature of a measured partial maximum stream temperature series plus its standard deviation multiplied by a factor KE (standard deviate). Various KE-values were explored; values of KE larger than 8 were found physically unreasonable. It is concluded that the value of KE should be in the range from 7 to 8. A unit error in estimating KE translates into a typical stream temperature error of about 0.5 °C. Using a logistic model for the stream temperature/air temperature relationship, a one degree error in air temperature gives a typical error of 0.16 °C in stream temperature. With a projected error in the enveloping standard deviate dKE=1.0 (range 0.5-1.5) and an error in projected high air temperature d Ta=2 °C (range 0-4 °C), the total projected stream temperature error is estimated as d Ts=0.8 °C.

Extremely Low Roll-Off and High Efficiency Achieved by Strategic Exciton Management in Organic Light-Emitting Diodes with Simple Ultrathin Emitting Layer Structure.

PubMed

Zhang, Tianmu; Shi, Changsheng; Zhao, Chenyang; Wu, Zhongbin; Chen, Jiangshan; Xie, Zhiyuan; Ma, Dongge

2018-03-07

Phosphorescent organic light-emitting diodes (OLEDs) possess the property of high efficiency but have serious efficiency roll-off at high luminance. Herein, we manufactured high-efficiency phosphorescent OLEDs with extremely low roll-off by effectively locating the ultrathin emitting layer (UEML) away from the high-concentration exciton formation region. The strategic exciton management in this simple UEML architecture greatly suppressed the exciton annihilation due to the expansion of the exciton diffusion region; thus, this efficiency roll-off at high luminance was significantly improved. The resulting green phosphorescent OLEDs exhibited the maximum external quantum efficiency of 25.5%, current efficiency of 98.0 cd A -1 , and power efficiency of 85.4 lm W -1 and still had 25.1%, 94.9 cd A -1 , and 55.5 lm W -1 at 5000 cd m -2 luminance, and retained 24.3%, 92.7 cd A -1 , and 49.3 lm W -1 at 10 000 cd m -2 luminance, respectively. Compared with the usual structures, the improvement demonstrated in this work displays potential value in applications.

Somatotype of the individuals with lower extremity amputation and its association with cardiovascular risk.

PubMed

Mozumdar, Arupendra; Roy, Subrata K

2008-03-01

Anthropometric somatotyping is one of the methods to describe the shape of the human body, which shows some associations with an individual's health and disease condition, especially with cardiovascular diseases (CVD). Individuals with lower extremity amputation (LEA) are known to be more vulnerable to the cardiovascular risk. The objectives of the present study are to report the somatotype of the individuals having lower extremity amputation, to study the possible variation in somatotype between two groups of amputated individuals, and to study the association between cardiovascular disease risk factor and somatotype components among individuals with locomotor disability. 102 adult male individuals with unilateral lower-extremity amputation residing in Calcutta and adjoining areas were investigated. The anthropometric data for somatotyping and data on cardiovascular risk traits (such as body mass index, blood pressure measurements, blood lipids) have been collected. The somatotyping technique of Carter & Heath (1990) has been followed. The result shows high mean values of endomorphy and mesomorphy components and a low mean value of the ectomorphy component among the amputated individuals having cardiovascular risks. The results of both discriminant analysis and logistic regression analysis show a significant relationship between somatotype components and CVD risk among the individuals with LEA. The findings of the present study support the findings of similar studies conducted on the normal population. Diagnosis of CVD risk condition through somatotyping can be utilized in prevention/treatment management for the individuals with LEA.

High-space resolution imaging plate analysis of extreme ultraviolet (EUV) light from tin laser-produced plasmas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Musgrave, Christopher S. A.; Murakami, Takehiro; Ugomori, Teruyuki; Yoshida, Kensuke; Fujioka, Shinsuke; Nishimura, Hiroaki; Atarashi, Hironori; Iyoda, Tomokazu; Nagai, Keiji

2017-03-01

With the advent of high volume manufacturing capabilities by extreme ultraviolet lithography, constant improvements in light source design and cost-efficiency are required. Currently, light intensity and conversion efficiency (CE) measurments are obtained by charged couple devices, faraday cups etc, but also phoshpor imaging plates (IPs) (BaFBr:Eu). IPs are sensitive to light and high-energy species, which is ideal for studying extreme ultraviolet (EUV) light from laser produced plasmas (LPPs). In this work, we used IPs to observe a large angular distribution (10°-90°). We ablated a tin target by high-energy lasers (1064 nm Nd:YAG, 1010 and 1011 W/cm2) to generate the EUV light. The europium ions in the IP were trapped in a higher energy state from exposure to EUV light and high-energy species. The light intensity was angular dependent; therefore excitation of the IP depends on the angle, and so highly informative about the LPP. We obtained high-space resolution (345 μm, 0.2°) angular distribution and grazing spectrometer (5-20 nm grate) data simultaneously at different target to IP distances (103 mm and 200 mm). Two laser systems and IP types (BAS-TR and BAS-SR) were also compared. The cosine fitting values from the IP data were used to calculate the CE to be 1.6% (SD ± 0.2) at 13.5 nm 2% bandwidth. Finally, a practical assessment of IPs and a damage issue are disclosed.

Finding differentially expressed genes in high dimensional data: Rank based test statistic via a distance measure.

PubMed

Mathur, Sunil; Sadana, Ajit

2015-12-01

We present a rank-based test statistic for the identification of differentially expressed genes using a distance measure. The proposed test statistic is highly robust against extreme values and does not assume the distribution of parent population. Simulation studies show that the proposed test is more powerful than some of the commonly used methods, such as paired t-test, Wilcoxon signed rank test, and significance analysis of microarray (SAM) under certain non-normal distributions. The asymptotic distribution of the test statistic, and the p-value function are discussed. The application of proposed method is shown using a real-life data set. © The Author(s) 2011.

Isotopically enriched ammonium shows high nitrogen transformation in the pile top zone of dairy manure compost

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maeda, Koki; Toyoda, Sakae; Yano, Midori; Hattori, Shohei; Fukasawa, Makoto; Nakajima, Keiichi; Yoshida, Naohiro

2016-03-01

Nitrogen isotope ratios (δ15N) of NH4+ in dairy manure compost piles with and without bulking agent (10 % w/w) were compared to understand the effects of the use of bulking agent on nitrogen conversion during manure composting. The δ15N-NH4+ values in each of three pile zones (top, side and core) were also compared. At the end of the process, piles with bulking agent showed significantly higher δ15N values (17.7 ± 1.3 ‰) than piles without bulking agent (11.8 ± 0.9 ‰), reflecting the significantly higher nitrogen conversion and NH3 loss in the former. The samples from the top zone, especially in the piles with bulking agent, showed very high NH4+ concentrations with significantly high 15N (δ15N: 12.7-29.8 ‰) values, indicating that extremely high nitrogen conversion, nitrification-denitrification activity of the microbes and NH3 volatilization occurred in this zone.

A Generalized Framework for Non-Stationary Extreme Value Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ragno, E.; Cheng, L.; Sadegh, M.; AghaKouchak, A.

2017-12-01

Empirical trends in climate variables including precipitation, temperature, snow-water equivalent at regional to continental scales are evidence of changes in climate over time. The evolving climate conditions and human activity-related factors such as urbanization and population growth can exert further changes in weather and climate extremes. As a result, the scientific community faces an increasing demand for updated appraisal of the time-varying climate extremes. The purpose of this study is to offer a robust and flexible statistical tool for non-stationary extreme value analysis which can better characterize the severity and likelihood of extreme climatic variables. This is critical to ensure a more resilient environment in a changing climate. Following the positive feedback on the first version of Non-Stationary Extreme Value Analysis (NEVA) Toolbox by Cheng at al. 2014, we present an improved version, i.e. NEVA2.0. The upgraded version herein builds upon a newly-developed hybrid evolution Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach for numerical parameters estimation and uncertainty assessment. This addition leads to a more robust uncertainty estimates of return levels, return periods, and risks of climatic extremes under both stationary and non-stationary assumptions. Moreover, NEVA2.0 is flexible in incorporating any user-specified covariate other than the default time-covariate (e.g., CO2 emissions, large scale climatic oscillation patterns). The new feature will allow users to examine non-stationarity of extremes induced by physical conditions that underlie the extreme events (e.g. antecedent soil moisture deficit, large-scale climatic teleconnections, urbanization). In addition, the new version offers an option to generate stationary and/or non-stationary rainfall Intensity - Duration - Frequency (IDF) curves that are widely used for risk assessment and infrastructure design. Finally, a Graphical User Interface (GUI) of the package is provided, making NEVA accessible to a broader audience.

Extreme Value Analysis of hydro meteorological extremes in the ClimEx Large-Ensemble

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wood, R. R.; Martel, J. L.; Willkofer, F.; von Trentini, F.; Schmid, F. J.; Leduc, M.; Frigon, A.; Ludwig, R.

2017-12-01

Many studies show an increase in the magnitude and frequency of hydrological extreme events in the course of climate change. However the contribution of natural variability to the magnitude and frequency of hydrological extreme events is not yet settled. A reliable estimate of extreme events is from great interest for water management and public safety. In the course of the ClimEx Project (www.climex-project.org) a new single-model large-ensemble was created by dynamically downscaling the CanESM2 large-ensemble with the Canadian Regional Climate Model version 5 (CRCM5) for an European Domain and a Northeastern North-American domain. By utilizing the ClimEx 50-Member Large-Ensemble (CRCM5 driven by CanESM2 Large-Ensemble) a thorough analysis of natural variability in extreme events is possible. Are the current extreme value statistical methods able to account for natural variability? How large is the natural variability for e.g. a 1/100 year return period derived from a 50-Member Large-Ensemble for Europe and Northeastern North-America? These questions should be answered by applying various generalized extreme value distributions (GEV) to the ClimEx Large-Ensemble. Hereby various return levels (5-, 10-, 20-, 30-, 60- and 100-years) based on various lengths of time series (20-, 30-, 50-, 100- and 1500-years) should be analyzed for the maximum one day precipitation (RX1d), the maximum three hourly precipitation (RX3h) and the streamflow for selected catchments in Europe. The long time series of the ClimEx Ensemble (7500 years) allows us to give a first reliable estimate of the magnitude and frequency of certain extreme events.

Evaluation and projected changes of precipitation statistics in convection-permitting WRF climate simulations over Central Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knist, Sebastian; Goergen, Klaus; Simmer, Clemens

2018-02-01

We perform simulations with the WRF regional climate model at 12 and 3 km grid resolution for the current and future climates over Central Europe and evaluate their added value with a focus on the daily cycle and frequency distribution of rainfall and the relation between extreme precipitation and air temperature. First, a 9 year period of ERA-Interim driven simulations is evaluated against observations; then global climate model runs (MPI-ESM-LR RCP4.5 scenario) are downscaled and analyzed for three 12-year periods: a control, a mid-of-century and an end-of-century projection. The higher resolution simulations reproduce both the diurnal cycle and the hourly intensity distribution of precipitation more realistically compared to the 12 km simulation. Moreover, the observed increase of the temperature-extreme precipitation scaling from the Clausius-Clapeyron (C-C) scaling rate of 7% K-1 to a super-adiabatic scaling rate for temperatures above 11 °C is reproduced only by the 3 km simulation. The drop of the scaling rates at high temperatures under moisture limited conditions differs between sub-regions. For both future scenario time spans both simulations suggest a slight decrease in mean summer precipitation and an increase in hourly heavy and extreme precipitation. This increase is stronger in the 3 km runs. Temperature-extreme precipitation scaling curves in the future climate are projected to shift along the 7% K-1 trajectory to higher peak extreme precipitation values at higher temperatures. The curves keep their typical shape of C-C scaling followed by super-adiabatic scaling and a drop-off at higher temperatures due to moisture limitation.

High Resolution Simulation of a Colorado Rockies Extreme Snow and Rain Event in both a Current and Future Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rasmussen, Roy; Ikeda, Kyoko; Liu, Changhai; Gutmann, Ethan; Gochis, David

2016-04-01

Modeling of extreme weather events often require very finely resolved treatment of atmospheric circulation structures in order to produce and localize the large moisture fluxes that result in extreme precipitation. This is particularly true for cool season orographic precipitation processes where the representation of the landform can significantly impact vertical velocity profiles and cloud moisture entrainment rates. This study presents results for high resolution regional climate modeling study of the Colorado Headwaters region using an updated version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model run at 4 km horizontal resolution and a hydrological extension package called WRF-Hydro. Previous work has shown that the WRF modeling system can produce credible depictions of winter orographic precipitation over the Colorado Rockies if run at horizontal resolutions < 6 km. Here we present results from a detailed study of an extreme springtime snowfall event that occurred along the Colorado Front Range in March 2003. Results from the impact of warming on total precipitation, snow-rain partitioning and surface hydrological fluxes (evapotranspiration and runoff) will be discussed in the context of how potential changes in temperature impact the amount of precipitation, the phase of precipitation (rain vs. snow) and the timing and amplitude of streamflow responses. The results show using the Pseudo Global Warming technique that intense precipitation rates significantly increased during the event and a significant fraction of the snowfall converts to rain which significantly amplifies the runoff response from one where runoff is produced gradually to one in which runoff is rapidly translated into streamflow values that approach significant flooding risks. Results from a new, CONUS scale high resolution climate simulation of extreme events in a current and future climate will be presented as time permits.

Climate projection of synoptic patterns forming extremely high wind speed over the Barents Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Surkova, Galina; Krylov, Aleksey

2017-04-01

Frequency of extreme weather events is not very high, but their consequences for the human well-being may be hazardous. These seldom events are not always well simulated by climate models directly. Sometimes it is more effective to analyze numerical projection of large-scale synoptic event generating extreme weather. For example, in mid-latitude surface wind speed depends mainly on the sea level pressure (SLP) field - its configuration and horizontal pressure gradient. This idea was implemented for analysis of extreme wind speed events over the Barents Sea. The calendar of high surface wind speed V (10 m above the surface) was prepared for events with V exceeding 99th percentile value in the central part of the Barents Sea. Analysis of probability distribution function of V was carried out on the base of ERA-Interim reanalysis data (6-hours, 0.75x0.75 degrees of latitude and longitude) for the period 1981-2010. Storm wind events number was found to be 240 days. Sea level pressure field over the sea and surrounding area was selected for each storm wind event. For the climate of the future (scenario RCP8.5), projections of SLP from CMIP5 numerical experiments were used. More than 20 climate models results of projected SLP (2006-2100) over the Barents Sea were correlated with modern storm wind SLP fields. Our calculations showed the positive tendency of annual frequency of storm SLP patterns over the Barents Sea by the end of 21st century.

New Insights into the Estimation of Extreme Geomagnetic Storm Occurrences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruffenach, Alexis; Winter, Hugo; Lavraud, Benoit; Bernardara, Pietro

2017-04-01

Space weather events such as intense geomagnetic storms are major disturbances of the near-Earth environment that may lead to serious impacts on our modern society. As such, it is of great importance to estimate their probability, and in particular that of extreme events. One approach largely used in statistical sciences for extreme events probability estimates is Extreme Value Analysis (EVA). Using this rigorous statistical framework, estimations of the occurrence of extreme geomagnetic storms are performed here based on the most relevant global parameters related to geomagnetic storms, such as ground parameters (e.g. geomagnetic Dst and aa indexes), and space parameters related to the characteristics of Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) (velocity, southward magnetic field component, electric field). Using our fitted model, we estimate the annual probability of a Carrington-type event (Dst = -850nT) to be on the order of 10-3, with a lower limit of the uncertainties on the return period of ˜500 years. Our estimate is significantly higher than that of most past studies, which typically had a return period of a few 100 years at maximum. Thus precautions are required when extrapolating intense values. Currently, the complexity of the processes and the length of available data inevitably leads to significant uncertainties in return period estimates for the occurrence of extreme geomagnetic storms. However, our application of extreme value models for extrapolating into the tail of the distribution provides a mathematically justified framework for the estimation of extreme return periods, thereby enabling the determination of more accurate estimates and reduced associated uncertainties.

Visual Analysis among Novices: Training and Trend Lines as Graphic Aids

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nelson, Peter M.; Van Norman, Ethan R.; Christ, Theodore J.

2017-01-01

The current study evaluated the degree to which novice visual analysts could discern trends in simulated time-series data across differing levels of variability and extreme values. Forty-five novice visual analysts were trained in general principles of visual analysis. One group received brief training on how to identify and omit extreme values.…

Implementing Extreme Value Analysis in a Geospatial Workflow for Storm Surge Hazard Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Catelli, J.; Nong, S.

2014-12-01

Gridded data of 100-yr (1%) and 500-yr (0.2%) storm surge flood elevations for the United States, Gulf of Mexico, and East Coast are critical to understanding this natural hazard. Storm surge heights were calculated across the study area utilizing SLOSH (Sea, Lake, and Overland Surges from Hurricanes) model data for thousands of synthetic US landfalling hurricanes. Based on the results derived from SLOSH, a series of interpolations were performed using spatial analysis in a geographic information system (GIS) at both the SLOSH basin and the synthetic event levels. The result was a single grid of maximum flood elevations for each synthetic event. This project addresses the need to utilize extreme value theory in a geospatial environment to analyze coincident cells across multiple synthetic events. The results are 100-yr (1%) and 500-yr (0.2%) values for each grid cell in the study area. This talk details a geospatial approach to move raster data to SciPy's NumPy Array structure using the Python programming language. The data are then connected through a Python library to an outside statistical package like R to fit cell values to extreme value theory distributions and return values for specified recurrence intervals. While this is not a new process, the value behind this work is the ability to keep this process in a single geospatial environment and be able to easily replicate this process for other natural hazard applications and extreme event modeling.

Reconstructing metabolic flux vectors from extreme pathways: defining the alpha-spectrum.

PubMed

Wiback, Sharon J; Mahadevan, Radhakrishnan; Palsson, Bernhard Ø

2003-10-07

The move towards genome-scale analysis of cellular functions has necessitated the development of analytical (in silico) methods to understand such large and complex biochemical reaction networks. One such method is extreme pathway analysis that uses stoichiometry and thermodynamic irreversibly to define mathematically unique, systemic metabolic pathways. These extreme pathways form the edges of a high-dimensional convex cone in the flux space that contains all the attainable steady state solutions, or flux distributions, for the metabolic network. By definition, any steady state flux distribution can be described as a nonnegative linear combination of the extreme pathways. To date, much effort has been focused on calculating, defining, and understanding these extreme pathways. However, little work has been performed to determine how these extreme pathways contribute to a given steady state flux distribution. This study represents an initial effort aimed at defining how physiological steady state solutions can be reconstructed from a network's extreme pathways. In general, there is not a unique set of nonnegative weightings on the extreme pathways that produce a given steady state flux distribution but rather a range of possible values. This range can be determined using linear optimization to maximize and minimize the weightings of a particular extreme pathway in the reconstruction, resulting in what we have termed the alpha-spectrum. The alpha-spectrum defines which extreme pathways can and cannot be included in the reconstruction of a given steady state flux distribution and to what extent they individually contribute to the reconstruction. It is shown that accounting for transcriptional regulatory constraints can considerably shrink the alpha-spectrum. The alpha-spectrum is computed and interpreted for two cases; first, optimal states of a skeleton representation of core metabolism that include transcriptional regulation, and second for human red blood cell metabolism under various physiological, non-optimal conditions.

Separating out the influence of climatic trend, fluctuations, and extreme events on crop yield: a case study in Hunan Province, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Zhu; Shi, Peijun; Zhang, Zhao; Meng, Yongchang; Luan, Yibo; Wang, Jiwei

2017-09-01

Separating out the influence of climatic trend, fluctuations and extreme events on crop yield is of paramount importance to climate change adaptation, resilience, and mitigation. Previous studies lack systematic and explicit assessment of these three fundamental aspects of climate change on crop yield. This research attempts to separate out the impacts on rice yields of climatic trend (linear trend change related to mean value), fluctuations (variability surpassing the "fluctuation threshold" which defined as one standard deviation (1 SD) of the residual between the original data series and the linear trend value for each climatic variable), and extreme events (identified by absolute criterion for each kind of extreme events related to crop yield). The main idea of the research method was to construct climate scenarios combined with crop system simulation model. Comparable climate scenarios were designed to express the impact of each climate change component and, were input to the crop system model (CERES-Rice), which calculated the related simulated yield gap to quantify the percentage impacts of climatic trend, fluctuations, and extreme events. Six Agro-Meteorological Stations (AMS) in Hunan province were selected to study the quantitatively impact of climatic trend, fluctuations and extreme events involving climatic variables (air temperature, precipitation, and sunshine duration) on early rice yield during 1981-2012. The results showed that extreme events were found to have the greatest impact on early rice yield (-2.59 to -15.89%). Followed by climatic fluctuations with a range of -2.60 to -4.46%, and then the climatic trend (4.91-2.12%). Furthermore, the influence of climatic trend on early rice yield presented "trade-offs" among various climate variables and AMS. Climatic trend and extreme events associated with air temperature showed larger effects on early rice yield than other climatic variables, particularly for high-temperature events (-2.11 to -12.99%). Finally, the methodology use to separate out the influences of the climatic trend, fluctuations, and extreme events on crop yield was proved to be feasible and robust. Designing different climate scenarios and feeding them into a crop system model is a potential way to evaluate the quantitative impact of each climate variable.

Oxygen isotope compositions of selected laramide-tertiary granitoid stocks in the Colorado Mineral Belt and their bearing on the origin of climax-type granite-molybdenum systems

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hannah, J.L.; Stein, H.J.

1986-01-01

Quartz phenocrysts from 31 granitoid stocks in the Colorado Mineral Belt yield ??18O values less than 10.4???, with most values between 9.3 and 10.4???. An average magmatic value of about 8.5??? is suggested. The stocks resemble A-type granites; these data support magma genesis by partial melting of previously depleted, fluorine-enriched, lower crustal granulites, followed by extreme differentiation and volatile evolution in the upper crust. Subsolidus interaction of isotopically light water with stocks has reduced most feldspar and whole rock ??18O values. Unaltered samples from Climax-type molybdenumbearing granites, however, show no greater isotopic disturbance than samples from unmineralized stocks. Although meteoric water certainly played a role in post-mineralization alteration, particularly in feldspars, it is not required during high-temperature mineralization processes. We suggest that slightly low ??18O values in some vein and replacement minerals associated with molybdenum mineralization may have resulted from equilibration with isotopically light magmatic water and/or heavy isotope depletion of the ore fluid by precipitation of earlier phases. Accumulation of sufficient quantities of isotopically light magmatic water to produce measured depletions of 18O requires extreme chemical stratification in a large magma reservoir. Upward migration of a highly fractionated, volatile-rich magma into a small apical Climax-type diapir, including large scale transport of silica, alkalis, molybdenum, and other vapor soluble elements, may occur with depression of the solidus temperature and reduction of magma viscosity by fluorine. Climax-type granites may provide examples of 18O depletion in magmatic systems without meteoric water influx. ?? 1986 Springer-Verlag.

Value-at-risk estimation with wavelet-based extreme value theory: Evidence from emerging markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cifter, Atilla

2011-06-01

This paper introduces wavelet-based extreme value theory (EVT) for univariate value-at-risk estimation. Wavelets and EVT are combined for volatility forecasting to estimate a hybrid model. In the first stage, wavelets are used as a threshold in generalized Pareto distribution, and in the second stage, EVT is applied with a wavelet-based threshold. This new model is applied to two major emerging stock markets: the Istanbul Stock Exchange (ISE) and the Budapest Stock Exchange (BUX). The relative performance of wavelet-based EVT is benchmarked against the Riskmetrics-EWMA, ARMA-GARCH, generalized Pareto distribution, and conditional generalized Pareto distribution models. The empirical results show that the wavelet-based extreme value theory increases predictive performance of financial forecasting according to number of violations and tail-loss tests. The superior forecasting performance of the wavelet-based EVT model is also consistent with Basel II requirements, and this new model can be used by financial institutions as well.

PERSISTENCE MAPPING USING EUV SOLAR IMAGER DATA

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Thompson, B. J.; Young, C. A., E-mail: barbara.j.thompson@nasa.gov

We describe a simple image processing technique that is useful for the visualization and depiction of gradually evolving or intermittent structures in solar physics extreme-ultraviolet imagery. The technique is an application of image segmentation, which we call “Persistence Mapping,” to isolate extreme values in a data set, and is particularly useful for the problem of capturing phenomena that are evolving in both space and time. While integration or “time-lapse” imaging uses the full sample (of size N ), Persistence Mapping rejects ( N − 1)/ N of the data set and identifies the most relevant 1/ N values using themore » following rule: if a pixel reaches an extreme value, it retains that value until that value is exceeded. The simplest examples isolate minima and maxima, but any quantile or statistic can be used. This paper demonstrates how the technique has been used to extract the dynamics in long-term evolution of comet tails, erupting material, and EUV dimming regions.« less

Drought assessment in the Duero basin (Central Spain) by means of multivariate extreme value statistics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kallache, M.

2012-04-01

Droughts cause important losses. On the Iberian Peninsula, for example, non-irrigated agriculture and the tourism sector are affected in regular intervals. The goal of this study is the description of droughts and their dependence in the Duero basin in Central Spain. To do so, daily or monthly precipitation data is used. Here cumulative precipitation deficits below a threshold define meteorological droughts. This drought indicator is similar to the commonly used standard precipitation index. However, here the focus lies on the modeling of severe droughts, which is done by applying multivariate extreme value theory (MEVT) to model extreme drought events. Data from several stations are assessed jointly, thus the uncertainty of the results is reduced. Droughts are a complex phenomenon, their severity, spatial extension and duration has to be taken into account. Our approach captures severity and spatial extension. In general we find a high correlation between deficit volumes and drought duration, thus the duration is not explicitely modeled. We apply a MEVT model with asymmetric logistic dependence function, which is capable to model asymptotic dependence and independence (cf. Ramos and Ledford, 2009). To summarize the information on the dependence in the joint tail of the extreme drought events, we utilise the fragility index (Geluk et al., 2007). Results show that droughts also occur frequently in winter. Moreover, it is very common for one site to suffer dry conditions, whilst neighboring areas experience normal or even humid conditions. Interpolation is thus difficult. Bivariate extremal dependence is present in the data. However, most stations are at least asymptotically independent. The according fragility indices are important information for risk calculations. The emerging spatial patterns for bivariate dependence are mostly influenced by topography. When looking at the dependence between more than two stations, it shows that joint extremes can occur more often than randomly for up to 6 stations, this depends on the distance between the stations.

Reliability of the mangled extremity severity score in combat-related upper and lower extremity injuries.

PubMed

Ege, Tolga; Unlu, Aytekin; Tas, Huseyin; Bek, Dogan; Turkan, Selim; Cetinkaya, Aytac

2015-01-01

Decision of limb salvage or amputation is generally aided with several trauma scoring systems such as the mangled extremity severity score (MESS). However, the reliability of the injury scores in the settling of open fractures due to explosives and missiles is challenging. Mortality and morbidity of the extremity trauma due to firearms are generally associated with time delay in revascularization, injury mechanism, anatomy of the injured site, associated injuries, age and the environmental circumstance. The purpose of the retrospective study was to evaluate the extent of extremity injuries due to ballistic missiles and to detect the reliability of mangled extremity severity score (MESS) in both upper and lower extremities. Between 2004 and 2014, 139 Gustillo Anderson Type III open fractures of both the upper and lower extremities were enrolled in the study. Data for patient age, fire arm type, transporting time from the field to the hospital (and the method), injury severity scores, MESS scores, fracture types, amputation levels, bone fixation methods and postoperative infections and complications retrieved from the two level-2 trauma center's data base. Sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values of the MESS were calculated to detect the ability in deciding amputation in the mangled limb. Amputation was performed in 39 extremities and limb salvage attempted in 100 extremities. The mean followup time was 14.6 months (range 6-32 months). In the amputated group, the mean MESS scores for upper and lower extremity were 8.8 (range 6-11) and 9.24 (range 6-11), respectively. In the limb salvage group, the mean MESS scores for upper and lower extremities were 5.29 (range 4-7) and 5.19 (range 3-8), respectively. Sensitivity of MESS in upper and lower extremities were calculated as 80% and 79.4% and positive predictive values detected as 55.55% and 83.3%, respectively. Specificity of MESS score for upper and lower extremities was 84% and 86.6%; negative predictive values were calculated as 95.45% and 90.2%, respectively. MESS is not predictive in combat related extremity injuries especially if between a score of 6-8. Limb ischemia and presence or absence of shock can be used in initial decision-making for amputation.

Reliability of the mangled extremity severity score in combat-related upper and lower extremity injuries

PubMed Central

Ege, Tolga; Unlu, Aytekin; Tas, Huseyin; Bek, Dogan; Turkan, Selim; Cetinkaya, Aytac

2015-01-01

Background: Decision of limb salvage or amputation is generally aided with several trauma scoring systems such as the mangled extremity severity score (MESS). However, the reliability of the injury scores in the settling of open fractures due to explosives and missiles is challenging. Mortality and morbidity of the extremity trauma due to firearms are generally associated with time delay in revascularization, injury mechanism, anatomy of the injured site, associated injuries, age and the environmental circumstance. The purpose of the retrospective study was to evaluate the extent of extremity injuries due to ballistic missiles and to detect the reliability of mangled extremity severity score (MESS) in both upper and lower extremities. Materials and Methods: Between 2004 and 2014, 139 Gustillo Anderson Type III open fractures of both the upper and lower extremities were enrolled in the study. Data for patient age, fire arm type, transporting time from the field to the hospital (and the method), injury severity scores, MESS scores, fracture types, amputation levels, bone fixation methods and postoperative infections and complications retrieved from the two level-2 trauma center's data base. Sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values of the MESS were calculated to detect the ability in deciding amputation in the mangled limb. Results: Amputation was performed in 39 extremities and limb salvage attempted in 100 extremities. The mean followup time was 14.6 months (range 6–32 months). In the amputated group, the mean MESS scores for upper and lower extremity were 8.8 (range 6–11) and 9.24 (range 6–11), respectively. In the limb salvage group, the mean MESS scores for upper and lower extremities were 5.29 (range 4–7) and 5.19 (range 3–8), respectively. Sensitivity of MESS in upper and lower extremities were calculated as 80% and 79.4% and positive predictive values detected as 55.55% and 83.3%, respectively. Specificity of MESS score for upper and lower extremities was 84% and 86.6%; negative predictive values were calculated as 95.45% and 90.2%, respectively. Conclusion: MESS is not predictive in combat related extremity injuries especially if between a score of 6–8. Limb ischemia and presence or absence of shock can be used in initial decision-making for amputation. PMID:26806974

Generating circularly polarized radiation in the extreme ultraviolet spectral range at the free-electron laser FLASH

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

von Korff Schmising, Clemens; Weder, David; Noll, Tino; Pfau, Bastian; Hennecke, Martin; Strüber, Christian; Radu, Ilie; Schneider, Michael; Staeck, Steffen; Günther, Christian M.; Lüning, Jan; Merhe, Alaa el dine; Buck, Jens; Hartmann, Gregor; Viefhaus, Jens; Treusch, Rolf; Eisebitt, Stefan

2017-05-01

A new device for polarization control at the free electron laser facility FLASH1 at DESY has been commissioned for user operation. The polarizer is based on phase retardation upon reflection off metallic mirrors. Its performance is characterized in three independent measurements and confirms the theoretical predictions of efficient and broadband generation of circularly polarized radiation in the extreme ultraviolet spectral range from 35 eV to 90 eV. The degree of circular polarization reaches up to 90% while maintaining high total transmission values exceeding 30%. The simple design of the device allows straightforward alignment for user operation and rapid switching between left and right circularly polarized radiation.

Extreme ultraviolet spectra of S IX and S X relevant to solar coronal plasmas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ali, Safdar; Kato, Hiroyuki; Nakamura, Nobuyuki

2017-10-01

We present extreme ultraviolet laboratory spectra of highly charged S IX and S X measured using a compact electron beam ion trap. The data were recorded using a flat-field grazing incidence spectrometer in the wavelength range between 210 and 290 Å. The beam energy was tuned for three different values at 365, 410 and 465 eV while keeping electron beam current constant at 10 mA. By measuring the beam energy dependence, we identified several lines originating from S IX and S X ions with the support of collisional-radiative modeling. We compared them with the present calculations and transitions listed in the NIST data base and found in good agreement.

Statistical Modeling of Extreme Values and Evidence of Presence of Dragon King (DK) in Solar Wind

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gomes, T.; Ramos, F.; Rempel, E. L.; Silva, S.; C-L Chian, A.

2017-12-01

The solar wind constitutes a nonlinear dynamical system, presenting intermittent turbulence, multifractality and chaotic dynamics. One characteristic shared by many such complex systems is the presence of extreme events, that play an important role in several Geophysical phenomena and their statistical characterization is a problem of great practical relevance. This work investigates the presence of extreme events in time series of the modulus of the interplanetary magnetic field measured by Cluster spacecraft on February 2, 2002. One of the main results is that the solar wind near the Earth's bow shock can be modeled by the Generalized Pareto (GP) and Generalized Extreme Values (GEV) distributions. Both models present a statistically significant positive shape parameter which implyies a heavy tail in the probability distribution functions and an unbounded growth in return values as return periods become too long. There is evidence that current sheets are the main responsible for positive values of the shape parameter. It is also shown that magnetic reconnection at the interface between two interplanetary magnetic flux ropes in the solar wind can be considered as Dragon Kings (DK), a class of extreme events whose formation mechanisms are fundamentally different from others. As long as magnetic reconnection can be classified as a Dragon King, there is the possibility of its identification and even its prediction. Dragon kings had previously been identified in time series of financial crashes, nuclear power generation accidents, stock market and so on. It is believed that they are associated with the occurrence of extreme events in dynamical systems at phase transition, bifurcation, crises or tipping points.

The analyses of extreme climate events over China based on CMIP5 historical and future simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, S.; Dong, W.; Feng, J.; Chou, J.

2013-12-01

The extreme climate events have a serious influence on human society. Based on observations and 12 simulations from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), Climatic extremes and their changes over china in history and future scenarios of three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) are analyzed. Because of the background of global warming, in observations, the frost days (FD) and low-temperature threshold days (TN10P) have decreasing trend, and summer days (SU), high-temperature threshold days (TX90P), the heavy precipitation days (R20) and contribution of heavy precipitation days (P95T) show an increasing trend. Most coupled models can basically simulate main characteristics of most extreme indexes. The models reproduce the mean FD and TX90P value best and can give basic trends of the FD, TN10P, SU and TX90P. High correlation coefficients between simulated results and observation are found in FD, SU and P95T. For FD and SU index, most of the models have good ability to capture the spatial differences between the mean state of the 1986-2005 and 1961-1980 periods, but for other indexes, most of models' simulation ability for spatial disparity are not so satisfactory and have to be promoted. Under the high emission scenario of RCP8.5, the century-scale linear changes of Multi-Model Ensembles (MME) for FD, SU, TN10P, TX90P, R20 and P95T are -46.9, 46.0, -27.1, 175.4, 2.9 days and 9.9%, respectively. Due to the complexities of physical process parameterizations and the limitation of forcing data, a large uncertainty still exists in the simulations of climatic extremes. Fig.1 Observed and modeled multi-year average for each index (Dotted line: observation) Table1. Extreme index definition

Precise measurement of a magnetic field generated by the electromagnetic flux compression technique.

PubMed

Nakamura, D; Sawabe, H; Matsuda, Y H; Takeyama, S

2013-04-01

The precision of the values of a magnetic field generated by electromagnetic flux compression was investigated in ultra-high magnetic fields of up to 700 T. In an attempt to calibrate the magnetic field measured by pickup coils, precise Faraday rotation (FR) measurements were conducted on optical (quartz and crown) glasses. A discernible "turn-around" phenomenon was observed in the FR signal as well as the pickup coils before the end of a liner implosion. We found that the magnetic field measured by pickup coils should be corrected by taking into account the high-frequency response of the signal transmission line. Near the peak magnetic field, however, the pickup coils failed to provide reliable values, leaving the FR measurement as the only method to precisely measure extremely high magnetic fields.

Variability in winter climate and winter extremes reduces population growth of an alpine butterfly.

PubMed

Roland, Jens; Matter, Stephen F

2013-01-01

We examined the long-term, 15-year pattern of population change in a network of 21 Rocky Mountain populations of Parnassius smintheus butterflies in response to climatic variation. We found that winter values of the broadscale climate variable, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index, were a strong predictor of annual population growth, much more so than were endogenous biotic factors related to population density. The relationship between PDO and population growth was nonlinear. Populations declined in years with extreme winter PDO values, when there were either extremely warm or extremely cold sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific relative to that in the western Pacific. Results suggest that more variable winters, and more frequent extremely cold or warm winters, will result in more frequent decline of these populations, a pattern exacerbated by the trend for increasingly variable winters seen over the past century.

Validation of extremes within the Perfect-Predictor Experiment of the COST Action VALUE

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hertig, Elke; Maraun, Douglas; Wibig, Joanna; Vrac, Mathieu; Soares, Pedro; Bartholy, Judith; Pongracz, Rita; Mares, Ileana; Gutierrez, Jose Manuel; Casanueva, Ana; Alzbutas, Robertas

2016-04-01

Extreme events are of widespread concern due to their damaging consequences on natural and anthropogenic systems. From science to applications the statistical attributes of rare and infrequent occurrence and low probability become connected with the socio-economic aspect of strong impact. Specific end-user needs regarding information about extreme events depend on the type of application, but as a joining element there is always the request for easily accessible climate change information with a clear description of their uncertainties and limitations. Within the Perfect-Predictor Experiment of the COST Action VALUE extreme indices modelled from a wide range of downscaling methods are compared to reference indices calculated from observational data. The experiment uses reference data from a selection of 86 weather stations representative of the different climates in Europe. Results are presented for temperature and precipitation extremes and include aspects of the marginal distribution as well as spell-length related aspects.

Extremes in ecology: Avoiding the misleading effects of sampling variation in summary analyses

USGS Publications Warehouse

Link, W.A.; Sauer, J.R.

1996-01-01

Surveys such as the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) produce large collections of parameter estimates. One's natural inclination when confronted with lists of parameter estimates is to look for the extreme values: in the BBS, these correspond to the species that appear to have the greatest changes in population size through time. Unfortunately, extreme estimates are liable to correspond to the most poorly estimated parameters. Consequently, the most extreme parameters may not match up with the most extreme parameter estimates. The ranking of parameter values on the basis of their estimates are a difficult statistical problem. We use data from the BBS and simulations to illustrate the potential misleading effects of sampling variation in rankings of parameters. We describe empirical Bayes and constrained empirical Bayes procedures which provide partial solutions to the problem of ranking in the presence of sampling variation.

Comparison of visual acuity of the patients on the first day after sub-Bowman keratomileusis or laser in situ keratomileusis.

PubMed

Zhao, Wei; Wu, Ting; Dong, Ze-Hong; Feng, Jie; Ren, Yu-Feng; Wang, Yu-Sheng

2016-01-01

To compare recovery of the visual acuity in patients one day after sub-Bowman keratomileusis (SBK) or laser in situ keratomileusis (LASIK). Data from 5923 eyes in 2968 patients that received LASIK (2755 eyes) or SBK (3168 eyes) were retrospectively analyzed. The eyes were divided into 4 groups according to preoperative spherical equivalent: between -12.00 to -9.00 D, extremely high myopia (n=396, including 192 and 204 in SBK and LASIK groups, respectively); -9.00 to -6.00 D, high myopia (n=1822, including 991 and 831 in SBK and LASIK groups, respectively), -6.00 to -3.00 D, moderate myopia (n=3071, including 1658 and 1413 in SBK and LASIK groups, respectively), and -3.00 to 0.00 D, low myopia (n=634, including 327 and 307 in SBK and LASIK groups, respectively). Uncorrected logMAR visual acuity values of patients were assessed under standard natural light. Analysis of variance was used for comparisons among different groups. Uncorrected visual acuity values were 0.0115±0.1051 and 0.0466±0.1477 at day 1 after operation for patients receiving SBK and LASIK, respectively (P<0.01); visual acuity values of 0.1854±0.1842, 0.0615±0.1326, -0.0033±0.0978, and -0.0164±0.0972 were obtained for patients in the extremely high, high, moderate, and low myopia groups, respectively (P<0.01). In addition, significant differences in visual acuity at day 1 after operation were found between patients receiving SBK and LASIK in each myopia subgroup. Compared with LASIK, SBK is safer and more effective, with faster recovery. Therefore, SBK is more likely to be accepted by patients than LASIK for better uncorrected visual acuity the day following operation.

Water quality in Rhode River at Smithsonian Institution Pier near Annapolis, Maryland, January 1976 through December 1978

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cory, Robert L.; Dresler, P.V.

1980-01-01

Water temperature, salinity, turbidity, dissolved oxygen, pH, and water level data were continuously monitored and recorded from the Smithsonian Institution pier near Annapolis, Md., from January 1976 through December 1978. Daily maximum and minimum values are tabulated and summarized, and monthly averages and extremes are presented. Water temperature ranged from 0.0 to 33.9 Celsius. Both high and low extreme values exceeded those recorded during the previous 6 years. Salinity patterns showed normal seasonal variations and were related to the Susquehanna River inflow, which controls the upper bay salinity. Salinity between 13 and 15 parts per thousand in November and December 1978 were the highest recorded over a 9-year period. Turbidity varied seasonally, with lowest values in winter and highest in spring. Dissolved oxygen ranged from 2.0 to 18.7 milligrams per liter. Large variations between summertime daily minima and maxima indicated the high state of eutrophication of the water being monitored. Hydrogen-ion activity (pH) ranged from 7.0 to 10.2 over the 3-year period. The pH changes reflect daily variation in partial pressure of carbon dioxide, which varies inversely with the dissolved oxygen. Water level variation at the monitoring site for the 3-year period was 1.89 meters, with highest water 0.59 meter above mean high water and lowest 0.83 meter below mean low water. An apparent decline of 0.07 meter below previously recorded mean high and mean low water was associated with stronger winds and a prevalance of westerly winds in February during the winter of 1976-1977. (USGS)

Apparent optical properties of the Canadian Beaufort Sea - Part 1: Observational overview and water column relationships

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Antoine, D.; Hooker, S. B.; Bélanger, S.; Matsuoka, A.; Babin, M.

2013-07-01

A data set of radiometric measurements collected in the Beaufort Sea (Canadian Arctic) in August 2009 (Malina project) is analyzed in order to describe apparent optical properties (AOPs) in this sea, which has been subject to dramatic environmental changes for several decades. The two properties derived from the measurements are the spectral diffuse attenuation coefficient for downward irradiance, Kd, and the spectral remote sensing reflectance, Rrs. The former controls light propagation in the upper water column. The latter determines how light is backscattered out of the water and becomes eventually observable from a satellite ocean color sensor. The data set includes offshore clear waters of the Beaufort Basin as well as highly turbid waters of the Mackenzie River plumes. In the clear waters, we show Kd values that are much larger in the ultraviolet and blue parts of the spectrum than what could be anticipated considering the chlorophyll concentration. A larger contribution of absorption by colored dissolved organic matter (CDOM) is responsible for these high Kd values, as compared to other oligotrophic areas. In turbid waters, attenuation reaches extremely high values, driven by high loads of particulate materials and also by a large CDOM content. In these two extreme types of waters, current satellite chlorophyll algorithms fail. This questions the role of ocean color remote sensing in the Arctic when Rrs from only the blue and green bands are used. Therefore, other parts of the spectrum (e.g., the red) should be explored if one aims at quantifying interannual changes in chlorophyll in the Arctic from space. The very peculiar AOPs in the Beaufort Sea also advocate for developing specific light propagation models when attempting to predict light availability for photosynthesis at depth.

Apparent optical properties of the Canadian Beaufort Sea - Part 1: Observational overview and water column relationships

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Antoine, D.; Hooker, S. B.; Belanger, S.; Matsuoka, A.; Babin, M.

2013-03-01

A data set of radiometric measurements collected in the Beaufort Sea (Canadian Arctic) in August 2009 (MALINA project) is analysed in order to describe apparent optical properties (AOPs) in this sea, which is subject to dramatic environmental changes for several decades. The two properties derived from the measurements are the spectral diffuse attenuation coefficient for downward irradiance, Kd, and the spectral remote sensing reflectance, Rrs. The former controls light propagation in the upper water column. The latter determines how light is backscattered out of the water and becomes eventually observable from a satellite ocean colour sensor. The data set includes offshore clear waters of the Beaufort basin as well as highly turbid waters of the Mackenzie River plumes. In the clear waters, we show Kd values that are much larger in the ultraviolet and blue parts of the spectrum than what could be anticipated considering the chlorophyll concentration. A larger contribution of absorption by coloured dissolved organic matter (CDOM) is responsible for this high Kd values, as compared to other oligotrophic areas. In turbid waters, attenuation reaches extremely high values, driven by high loads of particulate materials and also by a large CDOM content. In these two extreme types of waters, current satellite chlorophyll algorithms fail. This is questioning the role of ocean colour remote sensing in the Arctic when Rrs from only the blue and green bands are used. Therefore, other parts of the spectrum (e.g. the red) should be explored if one aims at quantifying interannual changes in chlorophyll in the Arctic from space. The very peculiar AOPs in the Beaufort Sea also advocate for developing specific light propagation models when attempting to predict light availability for photosynthesis at depth.

Scale dependency of regional climate modeling of current and future climate extremes in Germany

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tölle, Merja H.; Schefczyk, Lukas; Gutjahr, Oliver

2017-11-01

A warmer climate is projected for mid-Europe, with less precipitation in summer, but with intensified extremes of precipitation and near-surface temperature. However, the extent and magnitude of such changes are associated with creditable uncertainty because of the limitations of model resolution and parameterizations. Here, we present the results of convection-permitting regional climate model simulations for Germany integrated with the COSMO-CLM using a horizontal grid spacing of 1.3 km, and additional 4.5- and 7-km simulations with convection parameterized. Of particular interest is how the temperature and precipitation fields and their extremes depend on the horizontal resolution for current and future climate conditions. The spatial variability of precipitation increases with resolution because of more realistic orography and physical parameterizations, but values are overestimated in summer and over mountain ridges in all simulations compared to observations. The spatial variability of temperature is improved at a resolution of 1.3 km, but the results are cold-biased, especially in summer. The increase in resolution from 7/4.5 km to 1.3 km is accompanied by less future warming in summer by 1 ∘C. Modeled future precipitation extremes will be more severe, and temperature extremes will not exclusively increase with higher resolution. Although the differences between the resolutions considered (7/4.5 km and 1.3 km) are small, we find that the differences in the changes in extremes are large. High-resolution simulations require further studies, with effective parameterizations and tunings for different topographic regions. Impact models and assessment studies may benefit from such high-resolution model results, but should account for the impact of model resolution on model processes and climate change.

Evaluation of the best fit distribution for partial duration series of daily rainfall in Madinah, western Saudi Arabia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alahmadi, F.; Rahman, N. A.; Abdulrazzak, M.

2014-09-01

Rainfall frequency analysis is an essential tool for the design of water related infrastructure. It can be used to predict future flood magnitudes for a given magnitude and frequency of extreme rainfall events. This study analyses the application of rainfall partial duration series (PDS) in the vast growing urban Madinah city located in the western part of Saudi Arabia. Different statistical distributions were applied (i.e. Normal, Log Normal, Extreme Value type I, Generalized Extreme Value, Pearson Type III, Log Pearson Type III) and their distribution parameters were estimated using L-moments methods. Also, different selection criteria models are applied, e.g. Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), Corrected Akaike Information Criterion (AICc), Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) and Anderson-Darling Criterion (ADC). The analysis indicated the advantage of Generalized Extreme Value as the best fit statistical distribution for Madinah partial duration daily rainfall series. The outcome of such an evaluation can contribute toward better design criteria for flood management, especially flood protection measures.

Dynamic extreme values modeling and monitoring by means of sea shores water quality biomarkers and valvometry.

PubMed

Durrieu, Gilles; Pham, Quang-Khoai; Foltête, Anne-Sophie; Maxime, Valérie; Grama, Ion; Tilly, Véronique Le; Duval, Hélène; Tricot, Jean-Marie; Naceur, Chiraz Ben; Sire, Olivier

2016-07-01

Water quality can be evaluated using biomarkers such as tissular enzymatic activities of endemic species. Measurement of molluscs bivalves activity at high frequency (e.g., valvometry) during a long time period is another way to record the animal behavior and to evaluate perturbations of the water quality in real time. As the pollution affects the activity of oysters, we consider the valves opening and closing velocities to monitor the water quality assessment. We propose to model the huge volume of velocity data collected in the framework of valvometry using a new nonparametric extreme values statistical model. The objective is to estimate the tail probabilities and the extreme quantiles of the distribution of valve closing velocity. The tail of the distribution function of valve closing velocity is modeled by a Pareto distribution with parameter t,τ , beyond a threshold τ according to the time t of the experiment. Our modeling approach reveals the dependence between the specific activity of two enzymatic biomarkers (Glutathione-S-transferase and acetylcholinesterase) and the continuous recording of oyster valve velocity, proving the suitability of this tool for water quality assessment. Thus, valvometry allows in real-time in situ analysis of the bivalves behavior and appears as an effective early warning tool in ecological risk assessment and marine environment monitoring.

A Single Mode Study of a Quasi-Geostrophic Convection-Driven Dynamo Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Plumley, M.; Calkins, M. A.; Julien, K. A.; Tobias, S.

2017-12-01

Planetary magnetic fields are thought to be the product of hydromagnetic dynamo action. For Earth, this process occurs within the convecting, turbulent and rapidly rotating outer core, where the dynamics are characterized by low Rossby, low magnetic Prandtl and high Rayleigh numbers. Progress in studying dynamos has been limited by current computing capabilities and the difficulties in replicating the extreme values that define this setting. Asymptotic models that embrace these extreme parameter values and enforce the dominant balance of geostrophy provide an option for the study of convective flows with actual relevance to geophysics. The quasi-geostrophic dynamo model (QGDM) is a multiscale, fully-nonlinear Cartesian dynamo model that is valid in the asymptotic limit of low Rossby number. We investigate the QGDM using a simplified class of solutions that consist of a single horizontal wavenumber which enforces a horizontal structure on the solutions. This single mode study is used to explore multiscale time stepping techniques and analyze the influence of the magnetic field on convection.

UVPROM dosimetry, microdosimetry and applications to SEU and extreme value theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scheick, Leif Zebediah

A new method is described for characterizing a device in terms of the statistical distribution of first failures. The method is based on the erasure of a commercial Ultra- Violet erasable Programmable Read Only Memory (UVPROM). The method of readout would be used on a spacecraft or in other restrictive radiation environments. The measurement of the charge remaining on the floating gate is used to determine absorbed dose. The method of determining dose does not require the detector to be destroyed or erased nor does it effect the ability for taking further measurements. This is compared to extreme value theory applied to the statistical distributions that apply to this device. This technique predicts the threshold of Single Event Effects (SEE), like anomalous changes in erasure time in programmable devices due to high microdose energy-deposition events. This technique also allows for advanced non-destructive, screening of a single microelectronic devices for predictable response in a stressful, i.e. radiation, environments.

Extreme brain events: Higher-order statistics of brain resting activity and its relation with structural connectivity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amor, T. A.; Russo, R.; Diez, I.; Bharath, P.; Zirovich, M.; Stramaglia, S.; Cortes, J. M.; de Arcangelis, L.; Chialvo, D. R.

2015-09-01

The brain exhibits a wide variety of spatiotemporal patterns of neuronal activity recorded using functional magnetic resonance imaging as the so-called blood-oxygenated-level-dependent (BOLD) signal. An active area of work includes efforts to best describe the plethora of these patterns evolving continuously in the brain. Here we explore the third-moment statistics of the brain BOLD signals in the resting state as a proxy to capture extreme BOLD events. We find that the brain signal exhibits typically nonzero skewness, with positive values for cortical regions and negative values for subcortical regions. Furthermore, the combined analysis of structural and functional connectivity demonstrates that relatively more connected regions exhibit activity with high negative skewness. Overall, these results highlight the relevance of recent results emphasizing that the spatiotemporal location of the relatively large-amplitude events in the BOLD time series contains relevant information to reproduce a number of features of the brain dynamics during resting state in health and disease.

Anomalous Near-Surface Low-Salinity Pulses off the Central Oregon Coast

PubMed Central

Mazzini, Piero L. F.; Risien, Craig M.; Barth, John A.; Pierce, Stephen D.; Erofeev, Anatoli; Dever, Edward P.; Kosro, P. Michael; Levine, Murray D.; Shearman, R. Kipp; Vardaro, Michael F.

2015-01-01

From mid-May to August 2011, extreme runoff in the Columbia River ranged from 14,000 to over 17,000 m3/s, more than two standard deviations above the mean for this period. The extreme runoff was the direct result of both melting of anomalously high snowpack and rainfall associated with the 2010–2011 La Niña. The effects of this increased freshwater discharge were observed off Newport, Oregon, 180 km south of the Columbia River mouth. Salinity values as low as 22, nine standard deviations below the climatological value for this period, were registered at the mid-shelf. Using a network of ocean observing sensors and platforms, it was possible to capture the onshore advection of the Columbia River plume from the mid-shelf, 20 km offshore, to the coast and eventually into Yaquina Bay (Newport) during a sustained wind reversal event. Increased freshwater delivery can influence coastal ocean ecosystems and delivery of offshore, river-influenced water may influence estuarine biogeochemistry. PMID:26607750

BMI percentile curves for Chinese children aged 7-18 years, in comparison with the WHO and the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention references.

PubMed

Ma, Jun; Wang, Zhiqiang; Song, Yi; Hu, Peijin; Zhang, Bing

2010-12-01

To establish BMI percentile curves that describe the contemporary BMI distribution among Chinese children, and to compare their BMI percentile curves with those in two recently developed international references: the WHO and the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (US CDC) growth references. A cross-sectional national survey. Thirty provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions in China. Nationally representative sample of 232 140 school students aged 7-18 years. BMI percentile curves were established using the LMS method, and were compared with the percentiles of the WHO and the US CDC references. BMI distributions and growth patterns in Chinese children were dramatically different from those in the two international reference populations. Compared with the international reference populations, younger Chinese boys (7-12 years of age) had higher values of the percentiles above the median and lower values of the percentiles below the median, suggesting that they had larger proportions of extreme BMI values in both directions. Chinese girls and older Chinese boys (15-18 years of age) had substantially lower BMI percentiles than their counterparts in the reference populations, particularly those high percentiles among older age groups. The present study described the unique patterns of BMI curves at the national level, and these curves are useful as a reference for comparing different regions and for monitoring changes over time in Chinese children. Higher proportions of children with extreme values in both directions indicate that China is currently facing both an increasing level of obesity and a high level of undernutrition, simultaneously.

Variance analysis of forecasted streamflow maxima in a wet temperate climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Al Aamery, Nabil; Fox, James F.; Snyder, Mark; Chandramouli, Chandra V.

2018-05-01

Coupling global climate models, hydrologic models and extreme value analysis provides a method to forecast streamflow maxima, however the elusive variance structure of the results hinders confidence in application. Directly correcting the bias of forecasts using the relative change between forecast and control simulations has been shown to marginalize hydrologic uncertainty, reduce model bias, and remove systematic variance when predicting mean monthly and mean annual streamflow, prompting our investigation for maxima streamflow. We assess the variance structure of streamflow maxima using realizations of emission scenario, global climate model type and project phase, downscaling methods, bias correction, extreme value methods, and hydrologic model inputs and parameterization. Results show that the relative change of streamflow maxima was not dependent on systematic variance from the annual maxima versus peak over threshold method applied, albeit we stress that researchers strictly adhere to rules from extreme value theory when applying the peak over threshold method. Regardless of which method is applied, extreme value model fitting does add variance to the projection, and the variance is an increasing function of the return period. Unlike the relative change of mean streamflow, results show that the variance of the maxima's relative change was dependent on all climate model factors tested as well as hydrologic model inputs and calibration. Ensemble projections forecast an increase of streamflow maxima for 2050 with pronounced forecast standard error, including an increase of +30(±21), +38(±34) and +51(±85)% for 2, 20 and 100 year streamflow events for the wet temperate region studied. The variance of maxima projections was dominated by climate model factors and extreme value analyses.

Relationship between diffusion tensor fractional anisotropy and motor outcome in patients with hemiparesis after corona radiata infarct.

PubMed

Koyama, Tetsuo; Marumoto, Kohei; Miyake, Hiroji; Domen, Kazuhisa

2013-11-01

This study examined the relationship between fractional anisotropy (FA) values of magnetic resonance-diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) and motor outcome (1 month after onset) in 15 patients with hemiparesis after ischemic stroke of corona radiata lesions. DTI data were obtained on days 14-18. FA values within the cerebral peduncle were analyzed using a computer-automated method. Motor outcome of hemiparesis was evaluated according to Brunnstrom stage (BRS; 6-point scale: severe to normal) for separate shoulder/elbow/forearm, wrist/hand, and lower extremity functions. The ratio of FA values in the affected hemisphere to those in the unaffected hemisphere (rFA) was assessed in relation to the BRS data (Spearman rank correlation test, P<.05). rFA values ranged from .715 to 1.002 (median=.924). BRS ranged from 1 to 6 (median=4) for shoulder/elbow/forearm, from 1 to 6 (median=5) for wrist/hand, and from 2 to 6 (median=4) for the lower extremities. Analysis revealed statistically significant relationships between rFA and upper extremity functions (correlation coefficient=.679 for shoulder/elbow/forearm and .706 for wrist/hand). Although slightly less evident, the relationship between rFA and lower extremity function was also statistically significant (correlation coefficient=.641). FA values within the cerebral peduncle are moderately associated with the outcome of both upper and lower extremity functions, suggesting that DTI may be applicable for outcome prediction in stroke patients with corona radiata infarct. Copyright © 2013 National Stroke Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Fiber optic photoelastic pressure sensor for high temperature gases

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wesson, Laurence N.; Redner, Alex S.; Baumbick, Robert J.

1990-01-01

A novel fiber optic pressure sensor based on the photoelastic effects has been developed for extremely high temperature gases. At temperatures varying from 25 to 650 C, the sensor experiences no change in the peak pressure of the transfer function and only a 10 percent drop in dynamic range. Refinement of the sensor has resulted in an optoelectronic interface and processor software which can calculate pressure values within 1 percent of full scale at any temperature within the full calibrated temperature range.

Increased medial longitudinal arch mobility, lower extremity kinematics, and ground reaction forces in high-arched runners.

PubMed

Williams, D S Blaise; Tierney, Robin N; Butler, Robert J

2014-01-01

Runners with high medial longitudinal arch structure demonstrate unique kinematics and kinetics that may lead to running injuries. The mobility of the midfoot as measured by the change in arch height is also suspected to play a role in lower extremity function during running. The effect of arch mobility in high-arched runners is an important factor in prescribing footwear, training, and rehabilitating the running athlete after injury. To examine the effect of medial longitudinal arch mobility on running kinematics, ground reaction forces, and loading rates in high-arched runners. Cross-sectional study. Human movement research laboratory. A total of 104 runners were screened for arch height. Runners were then identified as having high arches if the arch height index was greater than 0.5 SD above the mean. Of the runners with high arches, 11 rigid runners with the lowest arch mobility (R) were compared with 8 mobile runners with the highest arch mobility (M). Arch mobility was determined by calculating the left arch height index in all runners. Three-dimensional motion analysis of running over ground. Rearfoot and tibial angular excursions, eversion-to-tibial internal-rotation ratio, vertical ground reaction forces, and the associated loading rates. Runners with mobile arches exhibited decreased tibial internal-rotation excursion (mobile: 5.6° ± 2.3° versus rigid: 8.0° ± 3.0°), greater eversion-to-tibial internal-rotation ratio (mobile: 2.1 ± 0.8 versus rigid: 1.5 ± 0.5), decreased second peak vertical ground reaction force values (mobile: 2.3 ± 0.2 × body weight versus rigid: 2.4 ± 0.1 × body weight), and decreased vertical loading rate values (mobile: 55.7 ± 14.1 × body weight/s versus rigid: 65.9 ± 11.4 × body weight/s). Based on the results of this study, it appears that runners with high arch structure but differing arch mobility exhibited differences in select lower extremity movement patterns and forces. Future authors should investigate the impact of arch mobility on running-related injuries.

Nearly extremal apparent horizons in simulations of merging black holes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lovelace, Geoffrey; Scheel, Mark A.; Owen, Robert; Giesler, Matthew; Katebi, Reza; Szilágyi, Béla; Chu, Tony; Demos, Nicholas; Hemberger, Daniel A.; Kidder, Lawrence E.; Pfeiffer, Harald P.; Afshari, Nousha

2015-03-01

The spin angular momentum S of an isolated Kerr black hole is bounded by the surface area A of its apparent horizon: 8π S≤slant A, with equality for extremal black holes. In this paper, we explore the extremality of individual and common apparent horizons for merging, rapidly spinning binary black holes. We consider simulations of merging black holes with equal masses M and initial spin angular momenta aligned with the orbital angular momentum, including new simulations with spin magnitudes up to S/{{M}2}=0.994. We measure the area and (using approximate Killing vectors) the spin on the individual and common apparent horizons, finding that the inequality 8π S\\lt A is satisfied in all cases but is very close to equality on the common apparent horizon at the instant it first appears. We also evaluate the Booth-Fairhurst extremality, whose value for a given apparent horizon depends on the scaling of the horizon’s null normal vectors. In particular, we introduce a gauge-invariant lower bound on the extremality by computing the smallest value that Booth and Fairhurst’s extremality parameter can take for any scaling. Using this lower bound, we conclude that the common horizons are at least moderately close to extremal just after they appear. Finally, following Lovelace et al (2008 Phys. Rev. D 78 084017), we construct quasiequilibrium binary-black hole initial data with ‘overspun’ marginally trapped surfaces with 8π S\\gt A. We show that the overspun surfaces are indeed superextremal: our lower bound on their Booth-Fairhurst extremality exceeds unity. However, we confirm that these superextremal surfaces are always surrounded by marginally outer trapped surfaces (i.e., by apparent horizons) with 8π S\\lt A. The extremality lower bound on the enclosing apparent horizon is always less than unity but can exceed the value for an extremal Kerr black hole.

An Application of Extreme Value Theory to Learning Analytics: Predicting Collaboration Outcome from Eye-Tracking Data

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sharma, Kshitij; Chavez-Demoulin, Valérie; Dillenbourg, Pierre

2017-01-01

The statistics used in education research are based on central trends such as the mean or standard deviation, discarding outliers. This paper adopts another viewpoint that has emerged in statistics, called extreme value theory (EVT). EVT claims that the bulk of normal distribution is comprised mainly of uninteresting variations while the most…

Ion exchangers in radioactive waste management: natural Iranian zeolites.

PubMed

Nilchi, A; Maalek, B; Khanchi, A; Ghanadi Maragheh, M; Bagheri, A; Savoji, K

2006-01-01

Five samples of natural zeolites from different parts of Iran were chosen for this study. In order to characterize and determine their structures, X-ray diffraction and infrared spectrometry were carried out for each sample. The selective absorption properties of each zeolite were found by calculating the distribution coefficient (K(d)) of various simulated wastes which were prepared by spiking the radionuclides with (131)I, (99)Mo, (153)Sm, (140)La and (147)Nd. All the zeolite samples used in this study had extremely high absorption value towards (140)La; clinoptolite from Mianeh and analsite from Ghalehkhargoshi showed good absorption for (147)Nd; clinoptolite from Semnan and clinoptolite from Firozkoh showed high absorption for (153)Sm; mesolite from Arababad Tabas showed good absorption for (99)Mo; and finally mesolite from Arababad Tabas, clinoptolite from Semnan and clinoptolite from Firozkoh could be used to selectively absorb (131)I from the stimulated waste which was prepared. The natural zeolites chosen for these studies show a similar pattern to those synthetic ion exchangers in the literature and in some cases an extremely high selectivity towards certain radioactive elements. Hence the binary separation of radioactive elements could easily be carried out. Furthermore, these zeolites, which are naturally occurring ion exchangers, are viable economically and extremely useful alternatives in this industry.

Beef customer satisfaction: USDA quality grade and marination effects on consumer evaluations of top round steaks.

PubMed

Behrends, J M; Goodson, K J; Koohmaraie, M; Shackelford, S D; Wheeler, T L; Morgan, W W; Reagan, J O; Gwartney, B L; Wise, J W; Savell, J W

2005-03-01

An in-home beef study evaluated consumer ratings of top round steaks (semimembranosus) as influenced by USDA quality grade (top Choice or high Select), city (Chicago or Philadelphia), consumer segment (beef loyalists = heavy consumers of beef; budget rotators = cost-driven and split meat consumption between beef and chicken; and variety rotators = higher incomes and education and split meat consumption among beef, poultry, and other foods), degree of doneness, cooking method, and marination. Consumers evaluated each steak for overall like, tenderness, juiciness, flavor like, and flavor amount using 10-point scales (1 = dislike extremely, not at all tender, not at all juicy, dislike extremely, and none at all to 10 = like extremely, extremely tender, extremely juicy, like extremely, and an extreme amount of flavor, respectively). Quality grade affected several consumer sensory traits, with top Choice receiving higher (P < or = 0.004) tenderness, juiciness, and flavor like scores than high Select. Consumers in Chicago rated steaks cooked "medium and less" higher for overall like, tenderness, juiciness, flavor like, and flavor amount than those in Philadelphia (city x degree of doneness; P < or = 0.020). Steaks braised by customers in Philadelphia received among the highest scores for overall like, tenderness, juiciness, flavor like, and flavor amount compared with any cooking method used by customers in Chicago (cooking method x city; P < or = 0.026). Overall like and flavor amount ratings were least (P < 0.05) for steaks that were marinated and cooked to "medium and less" degree of doneness (marination x degree of doneness; P < or = 0.014). Braised steaks received among the highest values for overall like, tenderness, juiciness, flavor like, and flavor amount when cooked to "medium and less" or "medium well and more" (cooking method x degree of doneness; P < or = 0.008). Correlation and stepwise regression analysis indicated that flavor like was pivotal in customers' satisfaction with top round steaks, and was the sensory trait most highly correlated to overall like, followed by tenderness, flavor amount, and juiciness. Preparation of top round steaks was crucial in consumers' likes and dislikes, and by improving flavor, higher consumer satisfaction may be achieved.

Evaluation of satellite-retrieved extreme precipitation using gauge observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lockhoff, M.; Zolina, O.; Simmer, C.; Schulz, J.

2012-04-01

Precipitation extremes have already been intensively studied employing rain gauge datasets. Their main advantage is that they represent a direct measurement with a relatively high temporal coverage. Their main limitation however is their poor spatial coverage and thus a low representativeness in many parts of the world. In contrast, satellites can provide global coverage and there are meanwhile data sets available that are on one hand long enough to be used for extreme value analysis and that have on the other hand the necessary spatial and temporal resolution to capture extremes. However, satellite observations provide only an indirect mean to determine precipitation and there are many potential observational and methodological weaknesses in particular over land surfaces that may constitute doubts concerning their usability for the analysis of precipitation extremes. By comparing basic climatological metrics of precipitation (totals, intensities, number of wet days) as well as respective characteristics of PDFs, absolute and relative extremes of satellite and observational data this paper aims at assessing to which extent satellite products are suitable for analysing extreme precipitation events. In a first step the assessment focuses on Europe taking into consideration various satellite products available, e.g. data sets provided by the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP). First results indicate that satellite-based estimates do not only represent the monthly averaged precipitation very similar to rain gauge estimates but they also capture the day-to-day occurrence fairly well. Larger differences can be found though when looking at the corresponding intensities.

A global analysis of the asymmetric effect of ENSO on extreme precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Xun; Renard, Benjamin; Thyer, Mark; Westra, Seth; Lang, Michel

2015-11-01

The global and regional influence of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon on extreme precipitation was analyzed using a global database comprising over 7000 high quality observation sites. To better quantify possible changes in relatively rare design-relevant precipitation quantiles (e.g. the 1 in 10 year event), a Bayesian regional extreme value model was used, which employed the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) - a measure of ENSO - as a covariate. Regions found to be influenced by ENSO include parts of North and South America, southern and eastern Asia, South Africa, Australia and Europe. The season experiencing the greatest ENSO effect varies regionally, but in most of the ENSO-affected regions the strongest effect happens in boreal winter, during which time the 10-year precipitation for |SOI| = 20 (corresponding to either a strong El Niño or La Niña episode) can be up to 50% higher or lower than for SOI = 0 (a neutral phase). Importantly, the effect of ENSO on extreme precipitation is asymmetric, with most parts of the world experiencing a significant effect only for a single ENSO phase. This finding has important implications on the current understanding of how ENSO influences extreme precipitation, and will enable a more rigorous theoretical foundation for providing quantitative extreme precipitation intensity predictions at seasonal timescales. We anticipate that incorporating asymmetric impacts of ENSO on extreme precipitation will help lead to better-informed climate-adaptive design of flood-sensitive infrastructure.

Intensification of seasonal temperature extremes prior to the 2°C global warming target

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anderson, B. T.

2011-12-01

Given current international efforts to limit human-induced global-mean near-surface temperature increases to 2°C, relative to the pre-industrial era, there is an interest in determining what unavoidable impacts to physical, biological, and socio-economic systems might occur even if this target were met. In our research we show that substantial fractions of the globe could experience seasonal-mean temperature extremes with unprecedented regularity, even if the global-mean temperature remains below the 2°C target currently envisioned. These results have significant implications for agriculture and crop yield; disease and human health; and ecosystems and biodiversity. To obtain these results, we first develop a novel method for combining numerical-model estimates of near-term increases in grid-point temperatures with stochastically generated anomalies derived from high-resolution observations during the last half of the 20th century. This method has practical advantages because it generates results at fine spatial resolution without relying on computationally-intensive regional-model experiments; it explicitly incorporates information derived from the observations regarding interannual-to-decadal variations in seasonal-mean temperatures; and it includes the generation of thousands of realizations of the possible impacts of a global mean temperature increase on local occurrences of hot extremes. Using this method we find that even given the "committed" future global-mean temperature increase of 0.6°C (1.4°C relative to the pre-industrial era) historical seasonal-mean temperature extremes will be exceeded in at least half of all years-equivalently, the historical extreme values will become the norm-for much of Africa, the southeastern and central portions of Asia, Indonesia, and the Amazon. Should the global-mean temperature increase reach 2°C (relative to the pre-industrial era), it is more likely than not that these same regions, along with large portions of western North America, will experience historical seasonal-mean temperature extremes every single year. Further, the current historical extreme values will effectively become the norm for approximately 70-80% of the Earth's land surface.

High current density ion beam obtained by a transition to a highly focused state in extremely low-energy region

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hirano, Y., E-mail: y.hirano@aist.go.jp, E-mail: hirano.yoichi@phys.cst.nihon-u.ac.jp; College of Science and Technologies, Nihon University, Chiyodaku, Tokyo 101-0897; Kiyama, S.

2015-11-15

A high current density (≈3 mA/cm{sup 2}) hydrogen ion beam source operating in an extremely low-energy region (E{sub ib} ≈ 150–200 eV) has been realized by using a transition to a highly focused state, where the beam is extracted from the ion source chamber through three concave electrodes with nominal focal lengths of ≈350 mm. The transition occurs when the beam energy exceeds a threshold value between 145 and 170 eV. Low-level hysteresis is observed in the transition when E{sub ib} is being reduced. The radial profiles of the ion beam current density and the low temperature ion current densitymore » can be obtained separately using a Faraday cup with a grid in front. The measured profiles confirm that more than a half of the extracted beam ions reaches the target plate with a good focusing profile with a full width at half maximum of ≈3 cm. Estimation of the particle balances in beam ions, the slow ions, and the electrons indicates the possibility that the secondary electron emission from the target plate and electron impact ionization of hydrogen may play roles as particle sources in this extremely low-energy beam after the compensation of beam ion space charge.« less

Modelling audiovisual integration of affect from videos and music.

PubMed

Gao, Chuanji; Wedell, Douglas H; Kim, Jongwan; Weber, Christine E; Shinkareva, Svetlana V

2018-05-01

Two experiments examined how affective values from visual and auditory modalities are integrated. Experiment 1 paired music and videos drawn from three levels of valence while holding arousal constant. Experiment 2 included a parallel combination of three levels of arousal while holding valence constant. In each experiment, participants rated their affective states after unimodal and multimodal presentations. Experiment 1 revealed a congruency effect in which stimulus combinations of the same extreme valence resulted in more extreme state ratings than component stimuli presented in isolation. An interaction between music and video valence reflected the greater influence of negative affect. Video valence was found to have a significantly greater effect on combined ratings than music valence. The pattern of data was explained by a five parameter differential weight averaging model that attributed greater weight to the visual modality and increased weight with decreasing values of valence. Experiment 2 revealed a congruency effect only for high arousal combinations and no interaction effects. This pattern was explained by a three parameter constant weight averaging model with greater weight for the auditory modality and a very low arousal value for the initial state. These results demonstrate key differences in audiovisual integration between valence and arousal.

Complexities of plinian fall deposition at vent: An example from the 1912 Novarupta eruption (Alaska)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fierstein, J.; Houghton, Bruce F.; Wilson, C.J.N.; Hildreth, W.

1997-01-01

An extremely proximal ejecta ring, with exposures to within 100 m of vent, was deposited during later-stage plinian fall activity during the 1912 Novarupta eruption in Alaska. One bed in the ejecta ring (bed S) contains predominantly andesitic clasts which serve to delineate the striking contrast in thinning rates along dispersal axis of the ejecta ring [Pyle bt values of 70 m (bed S alone) or 190 m (whole ejecta ring)] and the coeval dacitic plinian fall deposits [Pyle bt, values of 4 km (proximal) and 37 km (medial-distal)]. The locally deposited andesitic and dacitic clasts of the ejecta ring are interpreted as products of an irregular 'collar' of low-fountaining ejecta partially sheathing the core of higher-velocity dacitic ejecta that fed the stable, convecting 23-km-high column. The presence of such an extremely proximal accumulation of ejecta appears to be a feature common to several other historic eruptions that generated widespread fall deposits. This feature in part accounts for conflicts between measured and calculated values for thickness maxima in plinian fall deposits and suggests that modifications may be required of existing models for plinian eruption columns.

Trends in 1970-2010 southern California surface maximum temperatures: extremes and heat waves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghebreegziabher, Amanuel T.

Daily maximum temperatures from 1970-2010 were obtained from the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) for 28 South Coast Air Basin (SoCAB) Cooperative Network (COOP) sites. Analyses were carried out on the entire data set, as well as on the 1970-1974 and 2006-2010 sub-periods, including construction of spatial distributions and time-series trends of both summer-average and annual-maximum values and of the frequency of two and four consecutive "daytime" heat wave events. Spatial patterns of average and extreme values showed three areas consistent with climatological SoCAB flow patterns: cold coastal, warm inland low-elevation, and cool further-inland mountain top. Difference (2006-2010 minus 1970-1974) distributions of both average and extreme-value trends were consistent with the shorter period (1970-2005) study of previous study, as they showed the expected inland regional warming and a "reverse-reaction" cooling in low elevation coastal and inland areas open to increasing sea breeze flows. Annual-extreme trends generally showed cooling at sites below 600 m and warming at higher elevations. As the warming trends of the extremes were larger than those of the averages, regional warming thus impacts extremes more than averages. Spatial distributions of hot-day frequencies showed expected maximum at inland low-elevation sites. Regional warming again thus induced increases at both elevated-coastal areas, but low-elevation areas showed reverse-reaction decreases.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ozaki, N.; Nellis, W. J.; Mashimo, T.

Materials at high pressures and temperatures are of great current interest for warm dense matter physics, planetary sciences, and inertial fusion energy research. Shock-compression equation-of-state data and optical reflectivities of the fluid dense oxide, Gd 3Ga 5O 12 (GGG), were measured at extremely high pressures up to 2.6 TPa (26 Mbar) generated by high-power laser irradiation and magnetically-driven hypervelocity impacts. Above 0.75 TPa, the GGG Hugoniot data approach/reach a universal linear line of fluid metals, and the optical reflectivity most likely reaches a constant value indicating that GGG undergoes a crossover from fluid semiconductor to poor metal with minimum metallicmore » conductivity (MMC). These results suggest that most fluid compounds, e.g., strong planetary oxides, reach a common state on the universal Hugoniot of fluid metals (UHFM) with MMC at sufficiently extreme pressures and temperatures. Lastly, the systematic behaviors of warm dense fluid would be useful benchmarks for developing theoretical equation-of-state and transport models in the warm dense matter regime in determining computational predictions.« less

Projected Changes to Streamflow Characteristics in Quebec Basins as Simulated by the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM4)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huziy, O.; Sushama, L.; Khaliq, M.; Lehner, B.; Laprise, R.; Roy, R.

2011-12-01

According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2007), an intensification of the global hydrological cycle and increase in precipitation for some regions around the world, including the northern mid- to high-latitudes, is expected in future climate. This will have an impact on mean and extreme flow characteristics, which need to be assessed for better development of adaptation strategies. Analysis of the mean and extreme streamflow characteristics for Quebec (North-eastern Canada) basins in current climate and their projected changes in future climate are assessed using a 10 member ensemble of current (1970 - 1999) and future (2041 - 2070) Canadian RCM (CRCM4) simulations. Validation of streamflow characteristics, performed by comparing modeled values with those observed, available from the Centre d'expertise hydrique du Quebec (CEHQ) shows that the model captures reasonably well the high flows. Results suggest increase in mean and 10 year return levels of 1 day high flows, which appear significant for most of the northern basins.

Extremal optimization for Sherrington-Kirkpatrick spin glasses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boettcher, S.

2005-08-01

Extremal Optimization (EO), a new local search heuristic, is used to approximate ground states of the mean-field spin glass model introduced by Sherrington and Kirkpatrick. The implementation extends the applicability of EO to systems with highly connected variables. Approximate ground states of sufficient accuracy and with statistical significance are obtained for systems with more than N=1000 variables using ±J bonds. The data reproduces the well-known Parisi solution for the average ground state energy of the model to about 0.01%, providing a high degree of confidence in the heuristic. The results support to less than 1% accuracy rational values of ω=2/3 for the finite-size correction exponent, and of ρ=3/4 for the fluctuation exponent of the ground state energies, neither one of which has been obtained analytically yet. The probability density function for ground state energies is highly skewed and identical within numerical error to the one found for Gaussian bonds. But comparison with infinite-range models of finite connectivity shows that the skewness is connectivity-dependent.

Sensitivity Analysis of Expected Wind Extremes over the Northwestern Sahara and High Atlas Region.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garcia-Bustamante, E.; González-Rouco, F. J.; Navarro, J.

2017-12-01

A robust statistical framework in the scientific literature allows for the estimation of probabilities of occurrence of severe wind speeds and wind gusts, but does not prevent however from large uncertainties associated with the particular numerical estimates. An analysis of such uncertainties is thus required. A large portion of this uncertainty arises from the fact that historical observations are inherently shorter that the timescales of interest for the analysis of return periods. Additional uncertainties stem from the different choices of probability distributions and other aspects related to methodological issues or physical processes involved. The present study is focused on historical observations over the Ouarzazate Valley (Morocco) and in a high-resolution regional simulation of the wind in the area of interest. The aim is to provide extreme wind speed and wind gust return values and confidence ranges based on a systematic sampling of the uncertainty space for return periods up to 120 years.

Neutron scattering reveals the dynamic basis of protein adaptation to extreme temperature.

PubMed

Tehei, Moeava; Madern, Dominique; Franzetti, Bruno; Zaccai, Giuseppe

2005-12-09

To explore protein adaptation to extremely high temperatures, two parameters related to macromolecular dynamics, the mean square atomic fluctuation and structural resilience, expressed as a mean force constant, were measured by neutron scattering for hyperthermophilic malate dehydrogenase from Methanococcus jannaschii and a mesophilic homologue, lactate dehydrogenase from Oryctolagus cunniculus (rabbit) muscle. The root mean square fluctuations, defining flexibility, were found to be similar for both enzymes (1.5 A) at their optimal activity temperature. Resilience values, defining structural rigidity, are higher by an order of magnitude for the high temperature-adapted protein (0.15 Newtons/meter for O. cunniculus lactate dehydrogenase and 1.5 Newtons/meter for M. jannaschii malate dehydrogenase). Thermoadaptation appears to have been achieved by evolution through selection of appropriate structural rigidity in order to preserve specific protein structure while allowing the conformational flexibility required for activity.

Lock hopper values for coal gasification plant service

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schoeneweis, E. F.

1977-01-01

Although the operating principle of the lock hopper system is extremely simple, valve applications involving this service for coal gasification plants are likewise extremely difficult. The difficulties center on the requirement of handling highly erosive pulverized coal or char (either in dry or slurry form) combined with the requirement of providing tight sealing against high-pressure (possibly very hot) gas. Operating pressures and temperatures in these applications typically range up to 1600 psi (110bar) and 600F (316C), with certain process requirements going even higher. In addition, and of primary concern, is the need for reliable operation over long service periods with the provision for practical and economical maintenance. Currently available data indicate the requirement for something in the order of 20,000 to 30,000 open-close cycles per year and a desire to operate at least that long without valve failure.

Spatiotemporal changes in precipitation extremes over Yangtze River basin, China, considering the rainfall shift in the late 1970s

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, Tao; Xie, Lian

2016-12-01

Precipitation extremes are the dominated causes for the formation of severe flood disasters at regional and local scales under the background of global climate change. In the present study, five annual extreme precipitation events, including 1, 7 and 30 day annual maximum rainfall and 95th and 97.5th percentile threshold levels, are analyzed relating to the reference period 1960-2011 from 140 meteorological stations over Yangtze River basin (YRB). A generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution is applied to fit annual and percentile extreme precipitation events at each station with return periods up to 200 years. The entire time period is divided into preclimatic (preceding climatic) period 1960-1980 and aftclimatic (after climatic) period 1981-2011 by considering distinctly abrupt shift of precipitation regime in the late 1970s across YRB. And the Mann-Kendall trend test is adopted to conduct trend analysis during pre- and aftclimatic periods, respectively, for the purpose of exploring possible increasing/decreasing patterns in precipitation extremes. The results indicate that the increasing trends for return values during aftclimatic period change significantly in time and space in terms of different magnitudes of extreme precipitation, while the stations with significantly positive trends are mainly distributed in the vicinity of the mainstream and major tributaries as well as large lakes, this would result in more tremendous flood disasters in the mid-lower reaches of YRB, especially in southeast coastal regions. The increasing/decreasing linear trends based on annual maximum precipitation are also investigated in pre- and aftclimatic periods, respectively, whereas those changes are not significantly similar to the variations of return values during both subperiods. Moreover, spatiotemporal patterns of precipitation extremes become more uneven and unstable in the second half period over YRB.

The transformed-stationary approach: a generic and simplified methodology for non-stationary extreme value analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mentaschi, Lorenzo; Vousdoukas, Michalis; Voukouvalas, Evangelos; Sartini, Ludovica; Feyen, Luc; Besio, Giovanni; Alfieri, Lorenzo

2016-09-01

Statistical approaches to study extreme events require, by definition, long time series of data. In many scientific disciplines, these series are often subject to variations at different temporal scales that affect the frequency and intensity of their extremes. Therefore, the assumption of stationarity is violated and alternative methods to conventional stationary extreme value analysis (EVA) must be adopted. Using the example of environmental variables subject to climate change, in this study we introduce the transformed-stationary (TS) methodology for non-stationary EVA. This approach consists of (i) transforming a non-stationary time series into a stationary one, to which the stationary EVA theory can be applied, and (ii) reverse transforming the result into a non-stationary extreme value distribution. As a transformation, we propose and discuss a simple time-varying normalization of the signal and show that it enables a comprehensive formulation of non-stationary generalized extreme value (GEV) and generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) models with a constant shape parameter. A validation of the methodology is carried out on time series of significant wave height, residual water level, and river discharge, which show varying degrees of long-term and seasonal variability. The results from the proposed approach are comparable with the results from (a) a stationary EVA on quasi-stationary slices of non-stationary series and (b) the established method for non-stationary EVA. However, the proposed technique comes with advantages in both cases. For example, in contrast to (a), the proposed technique uses the whole time horizon of the series for the estimation of the extremes, allowing for a more accurate estimation of large return levels. Furthermore, with respect to (b), it decouples the detection of non-stationary patterns from the fitting of the extreme value distribution. As a result, the steps of the analysis are simplified and intermediate diagnostics are possible. In particular, the transformation can be carried out by means of simple statistical techniques such as low-pass filters based on the running mean and the standard deviation, and the fitting procedure is a stationary one with a few degrees of freedom and is easy to implement and control. An open-source MATLAB toolbox has been developed to cover this methodology, which is available at https://github.com/menta78/tsEva/ (Mentaschi et al., 2016).

Detection and attribution of extreme weather disasters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huggel, Christian; Stone, Dáithí; Hansen, Gerrit

2014-05-01

Single disasters related to extreme weather events have caused loss and damage on the order of up to tens of billions US dollars over the past years. Recent disasters fueled the debate about whether and to what extent these events are related to climate change. In international climate negotiations disaster loss and damage is now high on the agenda, and related policy mechanisms have been discussed or are being implemented. In view of funding allocation and effective risk reduction strategies detection and attribution to climate change of extreme weather events and disasters is a key issue. Different avenues have so far been taken to address detection and attribution in this context. Physical climate sciences have developed approaches, among others, where variables that are reasonably sampled over climatically relevant time periods and related to the meteorological characteristics of the extreme event are examined. Trends in these variables (e.g. air or sea surface temperatures) are compared between observations and climate simulations with and without anthropogenic forcing. Generally, progress has been made in recent years in attribution of changes in the chance of some single extreme weather events to anthropogenic climate change but there remain important challenges. A different line of research is primarily concerned with losses related to the extreme weather events over time, using disaster databases. A growing consensus is that the increase in asset values and in exposure are main drivers of the strong increase of economic losses over the past several decades, and only a limited number of studies have found trends consistent with expectations from climate change. Here we propose a better integration of existing lines of research in detection and attribution of extreme weather events and disasters by applying a risk framework. Risk is thereby defined as a function of the probability of occurrence of an extreme weather event, and the associated consequences, with consequences being a function of the intensity of the physical weather event, the exposure and value of assets, and vulnerabilities. We have examined selected major extreme events and disasters, including superstorm Sandy in 2012, the Pakistan floods and the heat wave in Russia in 2010, the 2010 floods in Colombia and the 2011 floods in Australia. We systematically analyzed to what extent (anthropogenic) climate change may have contributed to intensity and frequency of the event, along with changes in the other risk variables, to eventually reach a more comprehensive understanding of the relative role of climate change in recent loss and damage of extreme weather events.

Analyzing phenological extreme events over the past five decades in Germany

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schleip, Christoph; Menzel, Annette; Estrella, Nicole; Graeser, Philipp

2010-05-01

As climate change may alter the frequency and intensity of extreme temperatures, we analysed whether warming of the last 5 decades has already changed the statistics of phenological extreme events. In this context, two extreme value statistical concepts are discussed and applied to existing phenological datasets of German Weather Service (DWD) in order to derive probabilities of occurrence for extreme early or late phenological events. We analyse four phenological groups; "begin of flowering, "leaf foliation", "fruit ripening" and "leaf colouring" as well as DWD indicator phases of the "phenological year". Additionally we put an emphasis on a between-species analysis; a comparison of differences in extreme onsets between three common northern conifers. Furthermore we conducted a within-species analysis with different phases of horse chestnut throughout a year. The first statistical approach fits data to a Gaussian model using traditional statistical techniques, and then analyses the extreme quantile. The key point of this approach is the adoption of an appropriate probability density function (PDF) to the observed data and the assessment of the PDF parameters change in time. The full analytical description in terms of the estimated PDF for defined time steps of the observation period allows probability assessments of extreme values for e.g. annual or decadal time steps. Related with this approach is the possibility of counting out the onsets which fall in our defined extreme percentiles. The estimation of the probability of extreme events on the basis of the whole data set is in contrast to analyses with the generalized extreme value distribution (GEV). The second approach deals with the extreme PDFs itself and fits the GEV distribution to annual minima of phenological series to provide useful estimates about return levels. For flowering and leaf unfolding phases exceptionally early extremes are seen since the mid 1980s and especially for the single years 1961, 1990 and 2007 whereas exceptionally extreme late events are seen in the year 1970. Summer phases such as fruit ripening exhibit stronger shifts to early extremes than spring phases. Leaf colouring phases reveal increasing probability for late extremes. The with GEV estimated 100-year event of Picea, Pinus and Larix amount to extreme early events of about -27, -31.48 and -32.79 days, respectively. If we assume non-stationary minimum data we get a more extreme 100-year event of about -35.40 for Picea but associated with wider confidence intervals. The GEV is simply another probability distribution but for purposes of extreme analysis in phenology it should be considered as equally important as (if not more important than) the Gaussian PDF approach.

Japan’s Defense Policy: Forecast and Implications.

DTIC Science & Technology

1979-12-21

aggressive and extreme military values. While the military was developing high self - esteem , many Japanese were critical of the conduct of servicemen... effective defense capabilities progressively within the limits necessary for our self -defense, with due regard to the national resources and the...Cabinet recognized that actual capabilities of the Self -Defense Forces were short of the ultimate goal of "dealing effectively with conventional aggression

Extreme sea storm in the Mediterranean Sea. Trends during the 2nd half of the 20th century.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pino, C.; Lionello, P.; Galati, M. B.

2009-04-01

Extreme sea storm in the Mediterranean Sea. Trends during the 2nd half of the 20th century Piero Lionello, University of Salento, piero.lionello@unisalento.it Maria Barbara Galati, University of Salento, mariabarbara.galati@unisalento.it Cosimo Pino, University of Salento, pino@le.infn.it The analysis of extreme Significant Wave Height (SWH) values and their trend is crucial for planning and managing coastal defences and off-shore activities. The analysis provided by this study covers a 44-year long period (1958-2001). First the WW3 (Wave Watch 3) model forced with the REMO-Hipocas regional model wind fields has been used for the hindcast of extreme SWH values over the Mediterranean basin with a 0.25 deg lat-lon resolution. Subsequently, the model results have been processed with an ad hoc software to detect storms. GEV analysis has been perfomed and a set of indicators for extreme SWH have been computed, using the Mann Kendall test for assessing statistical significance of trends for different parameter such as the number of extreme events, their duration and their intensity. Results suggest a transition towards weaker extremes and a milder climate over most of the Mediterranean Sea.

Soil response to long-term projections of extreme temperature and precipitation in the southern La Plata Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pántano, Vanesa C.; Penalba, Olga C.

2017-12-01

Projected changes were estimated considering the main variables which take part in soil-atmosphere interaction. The analysis was focused on the potential impact of these changes on soil hydric condition under extreme precipitation and evapotranspiration, using the combination of Global Climate Models (GCMs) and observational data. The region of study is the southern La Plata Basin that covers part of Argentine territory, where rainfed agriculture production is one of the most important economic activities. Monthly precipitation and maximum and minimum temperatures were used from high quality-controlled observed data from 46 meteorological stations and the ensemble of seven CMIP5 GCMs in two periods: 1970-2005 and 2065-2100. Projected changes in monthly effective temperature and precipitation were analysed. These changes were combined with observed series for each probabilistic interval. The result was used as input variables for the water balance model in order to obtain consequent soil hydric condition (deficit or excess). Effective temperature and precipitation are expected to increase according to the projections of GCMs, with few exceptions. The analysis revealed increase (decrease) in the prevalence of evapotranspiration over precipitation, during spring (winter). Projections for autumn months show precipitation higher than potential evapotranspiration more frequently. Under dry extremes, the analysis revealed higher projected deficit conditions, impacting on crop development. On the other hand, under wet extremes, excess would reach higher values only in particular months. During December, projected increase in temperatures reduces the impact of extreme high precipitation but favours deficit conditions, affecting flower-fructification stage of summer crops.

Unusual very positive enrichment of 13C in carbonate sediments deposited in modern hypersaline environment, Lagoa Salgada, Brazil: Indicator of salinity controlled metabolic processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McKenzie, J. A.; Bovier, C.; Bahniuk, A.; Andersen, M. B.; Vasconcelos, C.

2016-12-01

In the geologic record, prolonged intervals of intense δ13C enrichment (>10‰) in carbonate deposits occurred, in particular during the mid-Palaeoproterozoic (2.3-1.9 Ga) and mid-Neoproterozoic (0.8-0.6 Ga) [1]. These anomalously high δ13C values have been interpreted as a global effect due to enhanced burial of organic matter with depleted δ13C values [2]. An alternate interpretation has been proposed whereby the metabolic activity of specific microbial communities, such as methanogens, may have been the source of the strong carbon isotope fractionation [3]. Although such restricted shallow-water environments where methanogens dominate are not widespread today, a unique hypersaline coastal lagoon system, Lagoa Salgada, Brazil provides ideal conditions to study the modern microbial community and its impact on observed extreme δ13C enrichment (up to 20‰) recorded in both in situ stromatolites and carbonate sediments. Here we present our findings and correlations of geochemical data with changing environmental conditions during the last 2600 cal yr BP. This lagoonal system contains highly evaporated water with highest salinities occurring during the dry season. The positive δ13C anomaly shows high and stable values (>14‰) from about 2100 to 1400 cal yr BP. Similar high δ13C values were recorded for the same time period in stromatolite structures growing around the margin of Lagoa Salgada. We propose that the high salinities inhibit photosynthesis, respiration and nitrogen fixation by osmotic stress and, thus, result in increased methanogenesis. We conclude that the combination of methanogenic metabolisms and extreme evaporative conditions is the key factor promoting the production of very high δ13C values observed throughout the lagoonal system, as recorded in both marginal stromatolites and carbonate sediments deposited in the more distal regions of the lagoon. Such unusual environments may have been more widely distributed during the Proterozoic accounting for the intense δ13C enrichment (>10‰) observed in the sedimentary record. [1] Shields G and Veizer J (2002) Geochem. Geophys. Geosyst. 3(6): 10.1029 [2] Schidlowski M (1993) In: Organic Geochemistry: Plenum Press, 639-655 [3] Hayes JM and Waldbauer J Jr (2006) Philosophical Trans. Royal Soc. B Biological Sciences 361: 931-950

Research in Stochastic Processes

DTIC Science & Technology

1988-08-31

stationary sequence, Stochastic Proc. Appl. 29, 1988, 155-169 T. Hsing, J. Husler and M.R. Leadbetter, On the exceedance point process for a stationary...Nandagopalan, On exceedance point processes for "regular" sample functions, Proc. Volume, Oberxolfach Conf. on Extreme Value Theory, J. Husler and R. Reiss...exceedance point processes for stationary sequences under mild oscillation restrictions, Apr. 88. Obermotfach Conf. on Extremal Value Theory. Ed. J. HUsler

A direct method for computing extreme value (Gumbel) parameters for gapped biological sequence alignments.

PubMed

Quinn, Terrance; Sinkala, Zachariah

2014-01-01

We develop a general method for computing extreme value distribution (Gumbel, 1958) parameters for gapped alignments. Our approach uses mixture distribution theory to obtain associated BLOSUM matrices for gapped alignments, which in turn are used for determining significance of gapped alignment scores for pairs of biological sequences. We compare our results with parameters already obtained in the literature.

Extreme ultraviolet index due to broken clouds at a midlatitude site, Granada (southeastern Spain)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Antón, M.; Piedehierro, A. A.; Alados-Arboledas, L.; Wolfran, E.; Olmo, F. J.

2012-11-01

Cloud cover usually attenuates the ultraviolet (UV) solar radiation but, under certain sky conditions, the clouds may produce an enhancement effect increasing the UV levels at surface. The main objective of this paper is to analyze an extreme UV enhancement episode recorded on 16 June 2009 at Granada (southeastern Spain). This phenomenon was characterized by a quick and intense increase in surface UV radiation under broken cloud fields (5-7 oktas) in which the Sun was surrounded by cumulus clouds (confirmed with sky images). Thus, the UV index (UVI) showed an enhancement of a factor 4 in the course of only 30 min around midday, varying from 2.6 to 10.4 (higher than the corresponding clear-sky UVI value). Additionally, the UVI presented values higher than 10 (extreme erythemal risk) for about 20 min running, with a maximum value around 11.5. The use of an empirical model and the total ozone column (TOC) derived from the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment (GOME) for the period 1995-2011 showed that the value of UVI ~ 11.5 is substantially larger than the highest index that could origin the natural TOC variations over Granada. Finally, the UV erythemal dose accumulated during the period of 20 min with the extreme UVI values under broken cloud fields was 350 J/m2 which surpass the energy required to produce sunburn of the most human skin types.

Isokinetic profile of elbow flexion and extension strength in elite junior tennis players.

PubMed

Ellenbecker, Todd S; Roetert, E Paul

2003-02-01

Descriptive study. To determine whether bilateral differences exist in concentric elbow flexion and extension strength in elite junior tennis players. The repetitive nature of tennis frequently produces upper extremity overuse injuries. Prior research has identified tennis-specific strength adaptation in the dominant shoulder and distal upper extremity musculature of elite players. No previous study has addressed elbow flexion and extension strength. Thirty-eight elite junior tennis players were bilaterally tested for concentric elbow flexion and extension muscle performance on a Cybex 6000 isokinetic dynamometer at 90 degrees/s, 210 degrees/s, and 300 degrees/s. Repeated-measures ANOVAs were used to test for differences between extremities, muscle groups, and speed. Significantly greater (P<0.002) dominant-arm elbow extension peak torque values were measured at 90 degrees/s, 210 degrees/s, and 300 degrees/s for males. Significantly greater (P<0.002) dominant-arm single-repetition work values were also measured at 90 degrees/s and 210 degrees/s for males. No significant difference was measured between extremities in elbow flexion muscular performance in males and for elbow flexion or extension peak torque and single-repetition work values in females. No significant difference between extremities was measured in elbow flexion/extension strength ratios in females and significant differences between extremities in this ratio were only present at 210 degrees/s in males (P<0.002). These data indicate muscular adaptations around the dominant elbow in male elite junior tennis players but not females. These data have ramifications for clinicians rehabilitating upper extremity injuries in patients from this population.

Episode of intense chemical weathering during the termination of the 635 Ma Marinoan glaciation.

PubMed

Huang, Kang-Jun; Teng, Fang-Zhen; Shen, Bing; Xiao, Shuhai; Lang, Xianguo; Ma, Hao-Ran; Fu, Yong; Peng, Yongbo

2016-12-27

Cryogenian (∼720-635 Ma) global glaciations (the snowball Earth) represent the most extreme ice ages in Earth's history. The termination of these snowball Earth glaciations is marked by the global precipitation of cap carbonates, which are interpreted to have been driven by intense chemical weathering on continents. However, direct geochemical evidence for the intense chemical weathering in the aftermath of snowball glaciations is lacking. Here, we report Mg isotopic data from the terminal Cryogenian or Marinoan-age Nantuo Formation and the overlying cap carbonate of the basal Doushantuo Formation in South China. A positive excursion of extremely high δ 26 Mg values (+0.56 to +0.95)-indicative of an episode of intense chemical weathering-occurs in the top Nantuo Formation, whereas the siliciclastic component of the overlying Doushantuo cap carbonate has significantly lower δ 26 Mg values (<+0.40), suggesting moderate to low intensity of chemical weathering during cap carbonate deposition. These observations suggest that cap carbonate deposition postdates the climax of chemical weathering, probably because of the suppression of carbonate precipitation in an acidified ocean when atmospheric CO 2 concentration was high. Cap carbonate deposition did not occur until chemical weathering had consumed substantial amounts of atmospheric CO 2 and accumulated high levels of oceanic alkalinity. Our finding confirms intense chemical weathering at the onset of deglaciation but indicates that the maximum weathering predated cap carbonate deposition.

Identifying Heat Waves in Florida: Considerations of Missing Weather Data

PubMed Central

Leary, Emily; Young, Linda J.; DuClos, Chris; Jordan, Melissa M.

2015-01-01

Background Using current climate models, regional-scale changes for Florida over the next 100 years are predicted to include warming over terrestrial areas and very likely increases in the number of high temperature extremes. No uniform definition of a heat wave exists. Most past research on heat waves has focused on evaluating the aftermath of known heat waves, with minimal consideration of missing exposure information. Objectives To identify and discuss methods of handling and imputing missing weather data and how those methods can affect identified periods of extreme heat in Florida. Methods In addition to ignoring missing data, temporal, spatial, and spatio-temporal models are described and utilized to impute missing historical weather data from 1973 to 2012 from 43 Florida weather monitors. Calculated thresholds are used to define periods of extreme heat across Florida. Results Modeling of missing data and imputing missing values can affect the identified periods of extreme heat, through the missing data itself or through the computed thresholds. The differences observed are related to the amount of missingness during June, July, and August, the warmest months of the warm season (April through September). Conclusions Missing data considerations are important when defining periods of extreme heat. Spatio-temporal methods are recommended for data imputation. A heat wave definition that incorporates information from all monitors is advised. PMID:26619198

Identifying Heat Waves in Florida: Considerations of Missing Weather Data.

PubMed

Leary, Emily; Young, Linda J; DuClos, Chris; Jordan, Melissa M

2015-01-01

Using current climate models, regional-scale changes for Florida over the next 100 years are predicted to include warming over terrestrial areas and very likely increases in the number of high temperature extremes. No uniform definition of a heat wave exists. Most past research on heat waves has focused on evaluating the aftermath of known heat waves, with minimal consideration of missing exposure information. To identify and discuss methods of handling and imputing missing weather data and how those methods can affect identified periods of extreme heat in Florida. In addition to ignoring missing data, temporal, spatial, and spatio-temporal models are described and utilized to impute missing historical weather data from 1973 to 2012 from 43 Florida weather monitors. Calculated thresholds are used to define periods of extreme heat across Florida. Modeling of missing data and imputing missing values can affect the identified periods of extreme heat, through the missing data itself or through the computed thresholds. The differences observed are related to the amount of missingness during June, July, and August, the warmest months of the warm season (April through September). Missing data considerations are important when defining periods of extreme heat. Spatio-temporal methods are recommended for data imputation. A heat wave definition that incorporates information from all monitors is advised.

Climatic extremes improve predictions of spatial patterns of tree species

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zimmermann, N.E.; Yoccoz, N.G.; Edwards, T.C.; Meier, E.S.; Thuiller, W.; Guisan, Antoine; Schmatz, D.R.; Pearman, P.B.

2009-01-01

Understanding niche evolution, dynamics, and the response of species to climate change requires knowledge of the determinants of the environmental niche and species range limits. Mean values of climatic variables are often used in such analyses. In contrast, the increasing frequency of climate extremes suggests the importance of understanding their additional influence on range limits. Here, we assess how measures representing climate extremes (i.e., interannual variability in climate parameters) explain and predict spatial patterns of 11 tree species in Switzerland. We find clear, although comparably small, improvement (+20% in adjusted D2, +8% and +3% in cross-validated True Skill Statistic and area under the receiver operating characteristics curve values) in models that use measures of extremes in addition to means. The primary effect of including information on climate extremes is a correction of local overprediction and underprediction. Our results demonstrate that measures of climate extremes are important for understanding the climatic limits of tree species and assessing species niche characteristics. The inclusion of climate variability likely will improve models of species range limits under future conditions, where changes in mean climate and increased variability are expected.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ghosh, Subimal; Das, Debasish; Kao, Shih-Chieh

Recent studies disagree on how rainfall extremes over India have changed in space and time over the past half century, as well as on whether the changes observed are due to global warming or regional urbanization. Although a uniform and consistent decrease in moderate rainfall has been reported, a lack of agreement about trends in heavy rainfall may be due in part to differences in the characterization and spatial averaging of extremes. Here we use extreme value theory to examine trends in Indian rainfall over the past half century in the context of long-term, low-frequency variability.We show that when generalizedmore » extreme value theory is applied to annual maximum rainfall over India, no statistically significant spatially uniform trends are observed, in agreement with previous studies using different approaches. Furthermore, our space time regression analysis of the return levels points to increasing spatial variability of rainfall extremes over India. Our findings highlight the need for systematic examination of global versus regional drivers of trends in Indian rainfall extremes, and may help to inform flood hazard preparedness and water resource management in the region.« less

Population-based utilities for upper extremity functions in the setting of tetraplegia.

PubMed

Ram, Ashwin N; Curtin, Catherine M; Chung, Kevin C

2009-11-01

People with tetraplegia face substantial physical and financial hardships. Although upper extremity reconstruction has been advocated for people with tetraplegia, these procedures are markedly underused in the United States. Population-based preference evaluation of upper extremity reconstruction is important to quantify the value of these reconstructive procedures. This study sought to establish the preferences for 3 health states: tetraplegia, tetraplegia with corrected pinch function, and tetraplegia with corrected elbow extension function. A computer-based, time trade-off survey was administered to a cohort of 81 able-bodied second-year medical students who served as a surrogate for the general public. This survey instrument has undergone pilot testing and has established face validity to evaluate the 3 health states of interest. Utilities were calculated based on an estimated 20 years of remaining life. The mean utility for the tetraplegic health state was low. On average, respondents gave up 10.8 +/- 5.0 out of a hypothetical 20 years for perfect health, for a utility of tetraplegia equal to 0.46. For recovery of pinch function, respondents gave up an average of 6.5 +/- 4.3 years, with a corresponding health utility of 0.68. For recovery of elbow extension function, respondents gave up an average of 7.6 +/- 4.5 years, with a corresponding health utility of 0.74. This study established the preferences for 2 upper extremity surgical interventions: tetraplegia with pinch and tetraplegia with elbow extension. The findings from this study place a high value on upper-limb reconstructive procedures with tetraplegia.

Rare events modeling with support vector machine: Application to forecasting large-amplitude geomagnetic substorms and extreme events in financial markets.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gavrishchaka, V. V.; Ganguli, S. B.

2001-12-01

Reliable forecasting of rare events in a complex dynamical system is a challenging problem that is important for many practical applications. Due to the nature of rare events, data set available for construction of the statistical and/or machine learning model is often very limited and incomplete. Therefore many widely used approaches including such robust algorithms as neural networks can easily become inadequate for rare events prediction. Moreover in many practical cases models with high-dimensional inputs are required. This limits applications of the existing rare event modeling techniques (e.g., extreme value theory) that focus on univariate cases. These approaches are not easily extended to multivariate cases. Support vector machine (SVM) is a machine learning system that can provide an optimal generalization using very limited and incomplete training data sets and can efficiently handle high-dimensional data. These features may allow to use SVM to model rare events in some applications. We have applied SVM-based system to the problem of large-amplitude substorm prediction and extreme event forecasting in stock and currency exchange markets. Encouraging preliminary results will be presented and other possible applications of the system will be discussed.

Arterial blood pressure response to heavy resistance exercise.

PubMed

MacDougall, J D; Tuxen, D; Sale, D G; Moroz, J R; Sutton, J R

1985-03-01

The purpose of this study was to record the blood pressure response to heavy weight-lifting exercise in five experienced body builders. Blood pressure was directly recorded by means of a capacitance transducer connected to a catheter in the brachial artery. Intrathoracic pressure with the Valsalva maneuver was recorded as mouth pressure by having the subject maintain an open glottis while expiring against a column of Hg during the lifts. Exercises included single-arm curls, overhead presses, and both double- and single-leg presses performed to failure at 80, 90, 95, and 100% of maximum. Systolic and diastolic blood pressures rose rapidly to extremely high values during the concentric contraction phase for each lift and declined with the eccentric contraction. The greatest peak pressures occurred during the double-leg press where the mean value for the group was 320/250 mmHg, with pressures in one subject exceeding 480/350 mmHg. Peak pressures with the single-arm curl exercise reached a mean group value of 255/190 mmHg when repetitions were continued to failure. Mouth pressures of 30-50 Torr during a single maximum lift, or as subjects approached failure with a submaximal weight, indicate that a portion of the observed increase in blood pressure was caused by a Valsalva maneuver. It was concluded that when healthy young subjects perform weight-lifting exercises the mechanical compression of blood vessels combines with a potent pressor response and a Valsalva response to produce extreme elevations in blood pressure. Pressures are extreme even when exercise is performed with a relatively small muscle mass.

Extreme-event geoelectric hazard maps: Chapter 9

USGS Publications Warehouse

Love, Jeffrey J.; Bedrosian, Paul A.

2018-01-01

Maps of geoelectric amplitude covering about half the continental United States are presented that will be exceeded, on average, once per century in response to an extreme-intensity geomagnetic disturbance. These maps are constructed using an empirical parameterization of induction: convolving latitude-dependent statistical maps of extreme-value geomagnetic disturbances, obtained from decades of 1-minute magnetic observatory data, with local estimates of Earth-surface impedance obtained at discrete geographic sites from magnetotelluric surveys. Geoelectric amplitudes are estimated for geomagnetic waveforms having a 240-s (and 1200-s) sinusoidal period and amplitudes over 10 min (1 h) that exceed a once-per-century threshold. As a result of the combination of geographic differences in geomagnetic variation and Earth-surface impedance, once-per-century geoelectric amplitudes span more than two orders of magnitude and are a highly granular function of location. Specifically for north-south 240-s induction, once-per-century geoelectric amplitudes across large parts of the United States have a median value of 0.34 V/km; for east-west variation, they have a median value of 0.23 V/km. In Northern Minnesota, amplitudes exceed 14.00 V/km for north-south geomagnetic variation (23.34 V/km for east-west variation), while just over 100 km away, amplitudes are only 0.08 V/km (0.02 V/km). At some sites in the northern-central United States, once-per-century geoelectric amplitudes exceed the 2 V/km realized in Québec during the March 1989 storm.

Median and ulnar neuropathies in U.S. Army Medical Command Band members.

PubMed

Shaffer, Scott W; Koreerat, Nicholas R; Gordon, Lindsay B; Santillo, Douglas R; Moore, Josef H; Greathouse, David G

2013-12-01

Musicians have been reported as having a high prevalence of upper-extremity musculoskeletal disorders, including carpal tunnel syndrome. The purpose of this study was to determine the presence of median and ulnar neuropathies in U.S. Army Medical Command (MEDCOM) Band members at Fort Sam Houston, Texas. Thirty-five MEDCOM Band members (30 males, 5 females) volunteered to participate. There were 33 right-handed musicians, and the mean length of time in the MEDCOM Band was 12.2 yrs (range, 1-30 yrs). Subjects completed a history form, were interviewed, and underwent a physical examination of the cervical spine and bilateral upper extremities. Nerve conduction studies of the bilateral median and ulnar nerves were performed. Electrophysiological variables served as the reference standard for median and ulnar neuropathy and included distal sensory latencies, distal motor latencies, amplitudes, conduction velocities, and comparison study latencies. Ten of the 35 subjects (29%) presented with abnormal electrophysiologic values suggestive of an upper extremity mononeuropathy. Nine of the subjects had abnormal median nerve electrophysiologic values at or distal to the wrist; 2 had bilateral abnormal values. One had an abnormal ulnar nerve electrophysiologic assessment at the elbow. Nine of these 10 subjects had clinical examination findings consistent with the electrophysiological findings. The prevalence of mononeuropathies in this sample of band members is similar to that found in previous research involving civilian musicians (20-36%) and far exceeds that reported in the general population. Prospective research investigating screening, examination items, and injury prevention measures in musicians appears to be warranted.

Sequences of extremal radially excited rotating black holes.

PubMed

Blázquez-Salcedo, Jose Luis; Kunz, Jutta; Navarro-Lérida, Francisco; Radu, Eugen

2014-01-10

In the Einstein-Maxwell-Chern-Simons theory the extremal Reissner-Nordström solution is no longer the single extremal solution with vanishing angular momentum, when the Chern-Simons coupling constant reaches a critical value. Instead a whole sequence of rotating extremal J=0 solutions arises, labeled by the node number of the magnetic U(1) potential. Associated with the same near horizon solution, the mass of these radially excited extremal solutions converges to the mass of the extremal Reissner-Nordström solution. On the other hand, not all near horizon solutions are also realized as global solutions.

Towards a balanced value business model for personalized medicine: an outlook.

PubMed

Koelsch, Christof; Przewrocka, Joanna; Keeling, Peter

2013-01-01

Novel targeted drugs, mainly in oncology, have commanded substantial price premiums in the recent past. Consequently, the attention of pharmaceutical companies has shifted away from the traditional low-price and high-volume blockbuster business model to drugs that command high, and sometimes extremely high, prices in limited markets defined by targeted patient populations. This model may have already passed its zenith, as the impact of more and more high-priced drugs coming to market substantially increases their combined burden on payors and public health finances. This article introduces a new 'balanced value' business model for personalized medicine, leveraging the emerging opportunities to reduce drug development cost and time for targeted therapies. This model allows pharmaceutical companies to charge prices for targeted therapy below the likely future thresholds for payors' willingness to pay, at the same time preserving attractive margins for the drug developers.

Long-term statistics of extreme tsunami height at Crescent City

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dong, Sheng; Zhai, Jinjin; Tao, Shanshan

2017-06-01

Historically, Crescent City is one of the most vulnerable communities impacted by tsunamis along the west coast of the United States, largely attributed to its offshore geography. Trans-ocean tsunamis usually produce large wave runup at Crescent Harbor resulting in catastrophic damages, property loss and human death. How to determine the return values of tsunami height using relatively short-term observation data is of great significance to assess the tsunami hazards and improve engineering design along the coast of Crescent City. In the present study, the extreme tsunami heights observed along the coast of Crescent City from 1938 to 2015 are fitted using six different probabilistic distributions, namely, the Gumbel distribution, the Weibull distribution, the maximum entropy distribution, the lognormal distribution, the generalized extreme value distribution and the generalized Pareto distribution. The maximum likelihood method is applied to estimate the parameters of all above distributions. Both Kolmogorov-Smirnov test and root mean square error method are utilized for goodness-of-fit test and the better fitting distribution is selected. Assuming that the occurrence frequency of tsunami in each year follows the Poisson distribution, the Poisson compound extreme value distribution can be used to fit the annual maximum tsunami amplitude, and then the point and interval estimations of return tsunami heights are calculated for structural design. The results show that the Poisson compound extreme value distribution fits tsunami heights very well and is suitable to determine the return tsunami heights for coastal disaster prevention.

Health effects associated with passenger vehicles: monetary values of air pollution.

PubMed

Marzouk, Mohamed; Madany, Magdy

2012-01-01

Air pollution is regarded as one of the highest priorities in environmental protection in both developed and developing countries. High levels of air pollution have adverse effects on human health that might cause premature death. This study presents the monetary value estimates for the adverse human health effects resulted from ambient air pollution. It aids decision makers to set priorities in the public health relevance of pollution abatement. The main driver of policymaker is the need to reduce the avoidable cardiopulmonary morbidity and mortality from pollutant exposures. The monetary valuation involves 2 steps: (i) relate levels of pollutants to mortality and morbidity (concentration-response relationships) and (ii) apply unit economic values. Cost of air pollution associated with passenger vehicles running over a major traffic bridge (6th of October Elevated Highway) is presented as a case study to demonstrate the use of monetary value of air pollution. The study proves that the cost of air pollution is extremely high and should not be overlooked.

Steep Hard-X-ray Spectra Indicate Extremely High Accretion Rates in Weak Emission-Line Quasars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marlar, Andrea; Shemmer, Ohad; Anderson, Scott F.; Brandt, W. Niel; Diamond-Stanic, Aleksandar M.; Fan, Xiaohui; Luo, Bin; Plotkin, Richard; Richards, Gordon T.; Schneider, Donald P.; Wu, Jianfeng

2018-06-01

We present XMM-Newton imaging spectroscopy of ten weak emission-line quasars (WLQs) at 0.928 ≤ z ≤ 3.767, six of which are radio quiet and four which are radio intermediate. The new X-ray data enabled us to measure the hard-X-ray power-law photon index (Γ) in each source with relatively high accuracy. These measurements allowed us to confirm previous reports that WLQs have steeper X-ray spectra, therefore indicating higher accretion rates with respect to "typical" quasars. A comparison between the Γ values of our radio-quiet WLQs and those of a carefully-selected, uniform sample of 84 quasars shows that the first are significantly higher, at the ≥ 3σ level. Collectively, the four radio-intermediate WLQs have lower Γ values with respect to the six radio-quiet WLQs, as may be expected if the spectra of the first group are contaminated by X-ray emission from a jet. These results suggest that, in the absence of significant jet emission along our line of sight, WLQs constitute the extreme high end of the accretion rate distribution in quasars. We detect soft excess emission in our lowest-redshift radio-quiet WLQ, in agreement with previous findings suggesting that the prominence of this feature is associated with a high accretion rate. We have not detected signatures of Compton reflection, Fe Kα lines, or strong variability between two X-ray epochs in any of our WLQs.

Western US high June 2015 temperatures and their relation to global warming and soil moisture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Philip, Sjoukje Y.; Kew, Sarah F.; Hauser, Mathias; Guillod, Benoit P.; Teuling, Adriaan J.; Whan, Kirien; Uhe, Peter; Oldenborgh, Geert Jan van

2018-04-01

The Western US states Washington (WA), Oregon (OR) and California (CA) experienced extremely high temperatures in June 2015. The temperature anomalies were so extreme that they cannot be explained with global warming alone. We investigate the hypothesis that soil moisture played an important role as well. We use a land surface model and a large ensemble from the weather@home modelling effort to investigate the coupling between soil moisture and temperature in a warming world. Both models show that May was anomalously dry, satisfying a prerequisite for the extreme heat wave, and they indicate that WA and OR are in a wet-to-dry transitional soil moisture regime. We use two different land surface-atmosphere coupling metrics to show that there was strong coupling between temperature, latent heat flux and the effect of soil moisture deficits on the energy balance in June 2015 in WA and OR. June temperature anomalies conditioned on wet/dry conditions show that both the mean and extreme temperatures become hotter for dry soils, especially in WA and OR. Fitting a Gaussian model to temperatures using soil moisture as a covariate shows that the June 2015 temperature values fit well in the extrapolated empirical temperature/drought lines. The high temperature anomalies in WA and OR are thus to be expected, given the dry soil moisture conditions and that those regions are in the transition from a wet to a dry regime. CA is already in the dry regime and therefore the necessity of taking soil moisture into account is of lower importance.

A method of batch-purifying microalgae with multiple antibiotics at extremely high concentrations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, Jichang; Wang, Song; Zhang, Lin; Yang, Guanpin; Zhao, Lu; Pan, Kehou

2016-01-01

Axenic microalgal strains are highly valued in diverse microalgal studies and applications. Antibiotics, alone or in combination, are often used to avoid bacterial contamination during microalgal isolation and culture. In our preliminary trials, we found that many microalgae ceased growing in antibiotics at extremely high concentrations but could resume growth quickly when returned to an antibiotics-free liquid medium and formed colonies when spread on a solid medium. We developed a simple and highly efficient method of obtaining axenic microalgal cultures based on this observation. First, microalgal strains of different species or strains were treated with a mixture of ampicillin, gentamycin sulfate, kanamycin, neomycin and streptomycin (each at a concentration of 600 mg/L) for 3 days; they were then transferred to antibiotics-free medium for 5 days; and finally they were spread on solid f/2 media to allow algal colonies to form. With this method, five strains of Nannochloropsis sp. (Eustigmatophyceae), two strains of Cylindrotheca sp. (Bacillariophyceae), two strains of Tetraselmis sp. (Chlorodendrophyceae) and one strain of Amphikrikos sp. (Trebouxiophyceae) were purified successfully. The method shows promise for batch-purifying microalgal cultures.

Decadal oscillations and extreme value distribution of river peak flows in the Meuse catchment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

De Niel, Jan; Willems, Patrick

2017-04-01

In flood risk management, flood probabilities are often quantified through Generalized Pareto distributions of river peak flows. One of the main underlying assumptions is that all data points need to originate from one single underlying distribution (i.i.d. assumption). However, this hypothesis, although generally assumed to be correct for variables such as river peak flows, remains somehow questionable: flooding might indeed be caused by different hydrological and/or meteorological conditions. This study confirms these findings from previous research by showing a clear indication of the link between atmospheric conditions and flooding for the Meuse river in The Netherlands: decadal oscillations of river peak flows can (at least partially) be attributed to the occurrence of westerly weather types. The study further proposes a method to take this correlation between atmospheric conditions and river peak flows into account when calibrating an extreme value distribution for river peak flows. Rather than calibrating one single distribution to the data and potentially violating the i.i.d. assumption, weather type depending extreme value distributions are derived and composed. The study shows that, for the Meuse river in The Netherlands, such approach results in a more accurate extreme value distribution, especially with regards to extrapolations. Comparison of the proposed method with a traditional extreme value analysis approach and an alternative model-based approach for the same case study shows strong differences in the peak flow extrapolation. The design-flood for a 1,250 year return period is estimated at 4,800 m3s-1 for the proposed method, compared with 3,450 m3s-1 and 3,900 m3s-1 for the traditional method and a previous study. The methods were validated based on instrumental and documentary flood information of the past 500 years.

Convective and microphysics parameterization impact on simulating heavy rainfall in Semarang (case study on February 12th, 2015)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Faridatussafura, Nurzaka; Wandala, Agie

2018-05-01

The meteorological model WRF-ARW version 3.8.1 is used for simulating the heavy rainfall in Semarang that occurred on February 12th, 2015. Two different convective schemes and two different microphysics scheme in a nested configuration were chosen. The sensitivity of those schemes in capturing the extreme weather event has been tested. GFS data were used for the initial and boundary condition. Verification on the twenty-four hours accumulated rainfall using GSMaPsatellite data shows that Kain-Fritsch convective scheme and Lin microphysics scheme is the best combination scheme among the others. The combination also gives the highest success ratio value in placing high intensity rainfall area. Based on the ROC diagram, KF-Lin shows the best performance in detecting high intensity rainfall. However, the combination still has high bias value.

I know why you voted for Trump: (Over)inferring motives based on choice.

PubMed

Barasz, Kate; Kim, Tami; Evangelidis, Ioannis

2018-05-10

People often speculate about why others make the choices they do. This paper investigates how such inferences are formed as a function of what is chosen. Specifically, when observers encounter someone else's choice (e.g., of political candidate), they use the chosen option's attribute values (e.g., a candidate's specific stance on a policy issue) to infer the importance of that attribute (e.g., the policy issue) to the decision-maker. Consequently, when a chosen option has an attribute whose value is extreme (e.g., an extreme policy stance), observers infer-sometimes incorrectly-that this attribute disproportionately motivated the decision-maker's choice. Seven studies demonstrate how observers use an attribute's value to infer its weight-the value-weight heuristic-and identify the role of perceived diagnosticity: more extreme attribute values give observers the subjective sense that they know more about a decision-maker's preferences, and in turn, increase the attribute's perceived importance. The paper explores how this heuristic can produce erroneous inferences and influence broader beliefs about decision-makers. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Torque and power outputs on different subjects during manual wheelchair propulsion under different conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hwang, Seonhong; Kim, Seunghyeon; Son, Jongsang; Kim, Youngho

2012-02-01

Manual wheelchair users are at a high risk of pain and injuries to the upper extremities due to mechanical inefficiency of wheelchair propulsion motion. The kinetic analysis of the upper extremities during manual wheelchair propulsion in various conditions needed to be investigated. We developed and calibrated a wheelchair dynamometer for measuring kinetic parameters during propulsion. We utilized the dynamometer to investigate and compare the propulsion torque and power values of experienced and novice users under four different conditions. Experienced wheelchair users generated lower torques with more power than novice users and reacted alertly and sensitively to changing conditions. We expect that these basic methods and results may help to quantitatively evaluate the mechanical efficiency of manual wheelchair propulsion.

Risk-based consequences of extreme natural hazard processes in mountain regions - Multi-hazard analysis in Tyrol (Austria)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huttenlau, Matthias; Stötter, Johann

2010-05-01

Reinsurance companies are stating a high increase in natural hazard related losses, both insured and economic losses, within the last decades on a global scale. This ongoing trend can be described as a product of the dynamic in the natural and in the anthroposphere. To analyze the potential impact of natural hazard process to a certain insurance portfolio or to the society in general, reinsurance companies or risk management consultants have developed loss models. However, those models are generally not fitting the scale dependent demand on regional scales like it is appropriate (i) for analyses on the scale of a specific province or (ii) for portfolio analyses of regional insurance companies. Moreover, the scientific basis of most of the models is not transparent documented and therefore scientific evaluations concerning the methodology concepts are not possible (black box). This is contrary to the scientific principles of transparency and traceability. Especially in mountain regions like the European Alps with their inherent (i) specific characteristic on small scales, (ii) the relative high process dynamics in general, (iii) the occurrence of gravitative mass movements which are related to high relief energy and thus only exists in mountain regions, (iv) the small proportion of the area of permanent settlement on the overall area, (v) the high value concentration in the valley floors, (vi) the exposition of important infrastructures and lifelines, and others, analyses must consider these circumstances adequately. Therefore, risk-based analyses are methodically estimating the potential consequences of hazard process on the built environment standardized with the risk components (i) hazard, (ii) elements at risk, and (iii) vulnerability. However, most research and progress have been made in the field of hazard analyses, whereas the other both components are not developed accordingly. Since these three general components are influencing factors without any weighting within the risk concept, this has sufficient implications on the results of risk analyses. Thus, an equal and scale appropriated balance of those risk components is a fundamental key factor for effective natural hazard risk analyses. The results of such analyses inform especially decision makers in the insurance industry, the administration, and politicians on potential consequences and are the basis for appropriate risk management strategies. Thereby, results (i) on an annual or probabilistic risk comprehension have to be distinguished from (ii) scenario-based analyses. The first analyses are based on statistics of periodically or episodically occurring events whereas the latter approach is especially applied for extreme, non-linear, stochastic events. Focusing on the needs especially of insurance companies, the first approaches are appropriate for premium pricing and reinsurance strategies with an annual perspective, whereas the latter is focusing on events with extreme loss burdens under worst-case criteria to guarantee accordant reinsurance coverage. Moreover, the demand of adequate loss model approaches and methods is strengthened by the risk-based requirements of the upcoming capital requirement directive Solvency II. The present study estimates the potential elements at risk, their corresponding damage potentials and the Probable Maximum Losses (PMLs) of extreme natural hazards events in Tyrol (Austria) and considers adequatly the scale dependency and balanced application of the introduced risk components. Beside the introduced analysis an additionally portfolio analysis of a regional insurance company was executed. The geocoded insurance contracts of this portfolio analysis were the basis to estimate spatial, socio-economical and functional differentiated mean insurance values for the different risk categories of (i) buildings, (ii) contents or inventory, (iii) vehicles, and (iv) persons in the study area. The estimated mean insurance values were incorporated with additional GIS and statistic data to a comprehensive property-by-property geodatabase of the existing elements and values. This stock of elements and values geodatabase is furthermore the consistent basis for all natural hazard analyses and enables the comparison of the results. The study follows the general accepted moduls (i) hazard analysis, (ii) exposition analysis, and (iii) consequence analysis, whereas the exposition analysis estimates the elements at risk with their corresponding damage potentials and the consequence analysis estimates the PMLs. This multi-hazard analysis focuses on process types with a high to extreme potential of negative consequences on a regional scale. In this context, (i) floodings, (ii) rockslides with the potential of corresponding consequence effects (backwater ponding and outburst flood), (iii) earthquakes, (iv) hail events, and (v) winter storms were considered as hazard processes. Based on general hazard analyses (hazard maps) concrete scenarios and their spatial affectedness were determined. For the different hazard processes, different vulnerability approaches were considered to demonstrate their sensitivity and implication on the results. Thus, no absolute values of losses but probable loss ranges were estimated. It can be shown, that the most serious amount of losses would arise from extreme earthquake events with loss burdens up to more than € 7 bn. solely on buildings and inventory. Possible extreme flood events could lead to losses between € 2 and 2.5 bn., whereas a severe hail swath which affects the central Inn valley could result in losses of ca. € 455 mill. (thereof € 285 mill. on vehicles). The potential most serious rockslide with additional consequence effects would result in losses up to ca. € 185 mill. and extreme winter storms can induce losses between € 100 mill. and 150 mill..

Isotopic evidence for continental ice sheet in mid-latitude region in the supergreenhouse Early Cretaceous

PubMed Central

Yang, Wu-Bin; Niu, He-Cai; Sun, Wei-Dong; Shan, Qiang; Zheng, Yong-Fei; Li, Ning-Bo; Li, Cong-Ying; Arndt, Nicholas T.; Xu, Xing; Jiang, Yu-Hang; Yu, Xue-Yuan

2013-01-01

Cretaceous represents one of the hottest greenhouse periods in the Earth's history, but some recent studies suggest that small ice caps might be present in non-polar regions during certain periods in the Early Cretaceous. Here we report extremely negative δ18O values of −18.12‰ to −13.19‰ for early Aptian hydrothermal zircon from an A-type granite at Baerzhe in northeastern China. Given that A-type granite is anhydrous and that magmatic zircon of the Baerzhe granite has δ18O value close to mantle values, the extremely negative δ18O values for hydrothermal zircon are attributed to addition of meteoric water with extremely low δ18O, mostly likely transported by glaciers. Considering the paleoaltitude of the region, continental glaciation is suggested to occur in the early Aptian, indicating much larger temperature fluctuations than previously thought during the supergreenhouse Cretaceous. This may have impact on the evolution of major organism in the Jehol Group during this period. PMID:24061068

Inter-model variability in hydrological extremes projections for Amazonian sub-basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andres Rodriguez, Daniel; Garofolo, Lucas; Lázaro de Siqueira Júnior, José; Samprogna Mohor, Guilherme; Tomasella, Javier

2014-05-01

Irreducible uncertainties due to knowledge's limitations, chaotic nature of climate system and human decision-making process drive uncertainties in Climate Change projections. Such uncertainties affect the impact studies, mainly when associated to extreme events, and difficult the decision-making process aimed at mitigation and adaptation. However, these uncertainties allow the possibility to develop exploratory analyses on system's vulnerability to different sceneries. The use of different climate model's projections allows to aboard uncertainties issues allowing the use of multiple runs to explore a wide range of potential impacts and its implications for potential vulnerabilities. Statistical approaches for analyses of extreme values are usually based on stationarity assumptions. However, nonstationarity is relevant at the time scales considered for extreme value analyses and could have great implications in dynamic complex systems, mainly under climate change transformations. Because this, it is required to consider the nonstationarity in the statistical distribution parameters. We carried out a study of the dispersion in hydrological extremes projections using climate change projections from several climate models to feed the Distributed Hydrological Model of the National Institute for Spatial Research, MHD-INPE, applied in Amazonian sub-basins. This model is a large-scale hydrological model that uses a TopModel approach to solve runoff generation processes at the grid-cell scale. MHD-INPE model was calibrated for 1970-1990 using observed meteorological data and comparing observed and simulated discharges by using several performance coeficients. Hydrological Model integrations were performed for present historical time (1970-1990) and for future period (2010-2100). Because climate models simulate the variability of the climate system in statistical terms rather than reproduce the historical behavior of climate variables, the performances of the model's runs during the historical period, when feed with climate model data, were tested using descriptors of the Flow Duration Curves. The analyses of projected extreme values were carried out considering the nonstationarity of the GEV distribution parameters and compared with extremes events in present time. Results show inter-model variability in a broad dispersion on projected extreme's values. Such dispersion implies different degrees of socio-economic impacts associated to extreme hydrological events. Despite the no existence of one optimum result, this variability allows the analyses of adaptation strategies and its potential vulnerabilities.

Using damage data to estimate the risk from summer convective precipitation extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schroeer, Katharina; Tye, Mari

2017-04-01

This study explores the potential added value from including loss and damage data to understand the risks from high-intensity short-duration convective precipitation events. Projected increases in these events are expected even in regions that are likely to become more arid. Such high intensity precipitation events can trigger hazardous flash floods, debris flows, and landslides that put people and local assets at risk. However, the assessment of local scale precipitation extremes is hampered by its high spatial and temporal variability. In addition to this, not only are extreme events rare, but such small-scale events are likely to be underreported where they do not coincide with the observation network. Reports of private loss and damage on a local administrative unit scale (LAU 2 level) are used to explore the relationship between observed rainfall events and damages reportedly related to hydro-meteorological processes. With 480 Austrian municipalities located within our south-eastern Alpine study region, the damage data are available on a much smaller scale than the available rainfall data. Precipitation is recorded daily at 185 gauges and 52% of these stations additionally deliver sub-hourly rainfall information. To obtain physically plausible information, damage and rainfall data are grouped and analyzed on a catchment scale. The data indicate that rainfall intensities are higher on days that coincide with a damage claim than on days for which no damage was reported. However, approximately one third of the damages related to hydro-meteorological hazards were claimed on days for which no rainfall was recorded at any gauge in the respective catchment. Our goal is to assess whether these events indicate potential extreme events missing in the observations. Damage always is a consequence of an asset being exposed and susceptible to a hazardous process, and naturally, many factors influence whether an extreme rainfall event causes damage. We set up a statistical model to test whether the relationship between extreme rainfall events and damages is robust enough to estimate a potential underrepresentation of high intensity rainfall events in ungauged areas. Risk-relevant factors of socio-economic vulnerability, land cover, streamflow data, and weather type information are included to improve and sharpen the analysis. Within this study, we first aim to identify which rainfall events are most damaging and which factors affect the damages - seen as a proxy for the vulnerability - related to summer convective rainfall extremes in different catchment types. Secondly, we aim to detect potentially unreported damaging rainfall events and estimate the likelihood of such cases. We anticipate this damage perspective on summertime extreme convective precipitation to be beneficial for risk assessment, uncertainty management, and decision making with respect to weather and climate extremes on the regional-to-local level.

Research in Stochastic Processes

DTIC Science & Technology

1988-10-10

To appear in Proceedings Volume, Oberwolfach Conf. on Extremal Value Theory, Ed. J. HUsler and R. Reiss, Springer. 4. M.R. Leadbetter. The exceedance...Hsing, J. Husler and M.R. Leadbetter, On the exceedance point process for a stationary sequence, Probability Theor. Rel. Fields, 20, 1988, 97-112 Z.J...Oberwotfach Conf. on Extreme Value Theory. J. Husler and R. Reiss. eds.. Springer. to appear V. Mandrekar, On a limit theorem and invariance

Estimation of genetic parameters and breeding values across challenged environments to select for robust pigs.

PubMed

Herrero-Medrano, J M; Mathur, P K; ten Napel, J; Rashidi, H; Alexandri, P; Knol, E F; Mulder, H A

2015-04-01

Robustness is an important issue in the pig production industry. Since pigs from international breeding organizations have to withstand a variety of environmental challenges, selection of pigs with the inherent ability to sustain their productivity in diverse environments may be an economically feasible approach in the livestock industry. The objective of this study was to estimate genetic parameters and breeding values across different levels of environmental challenge load. The challenge load (CL) was estimated as the reduction in reproductive performance during different weeks of a year using 925,711 farrowing records from farms distributed worldwide. A wide range of levels of challenge, from favorable to unfavorable environments, was observed among farms with high CL values being associated with confirmed situations of unfavorable environment. Genetic parameters and breeding values were estimated in high- and low-challenge environments using a bivariate analysis, as well as across increasing levels of challenge with a random regression model using Legendre polynomials. Although heritability estimates of number of pigs born alive were slightly higher in environments with extreme CL than in those with intermediate levels of CL, the heritabilities of number of piglet losses increased progressively as CL increased. Genetic correlations among environments with different levels of CL suggest that selection in environments with extremes of low or high CL would result in low response to selection. Therefore, selection programs of breeding organizations that are commonly conducted under favorable environments could have low response to selection in commercial farms that have unfavorable environmental conditions. Sows that had experienced high levels of challenge at least once during their productive life were ranked according to their EBV. The selection of pigs using EBV ignoring environmental challenges or on the basis of records from only favorable environments resulted in a sharp decline in productivity as the level of challenge increased. In contrast, selection using the random regression approach resulted in limited change in productivity with increasing levels of challenge. Hence, we demonstrate that the use of a quantitative measure of environmental CL and a random regression approach can be comprehensively combined for genetic selection of pigs with enhanced ability to maintain high productivity in harsh environments.

Metal spintronics: Tunneling spectroscopy in junctions with magnetic and superconducting electrodes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Hyunsoo

Recent advances in generating, manipulating and detecting spin-polarized electrons and their electrical current make possible entirely new classes of spin-based sensor, logic and storage devices. An important such device is the magnetic tunnel junction (MTJ) which has been under intensive study in recent years: important applications include nonvolatile memory cells for high performance magnetic random access memory (MRAMs), and magnetic field sensors for high density hard disk drive read heads. Many aspects of the tunneling magnetoresistance (TMR) phenomenon are poorly understood although it is clear that the fundamental origin of TMR is the spin-polarization of the tunneling current. Thus, the measurement of the magnitude and sign of the tunneling spin polarization (TSP) is very important to help the further understanding of TMR. Recently, an extremely high TMR value, of up to 350% at room temperature, has been reported in practical MTJ devices. These MTJs are fabricated with highly oriented crystalline MgO(100) tunnel barriers by straightforward magnetron sputter deposition at room temperature. In parallel with this observation, we report extremely high TSP values exceeding 90% from CoFe/MgO tunnel spin injectors. These TSP values rival the highest polarization values previously reported using exotic half-metallic oxide ferromagnets. The spin polarization of electrons extracted from ferromagnetic films can be probed by a variety of techniques. Amongst these techniques, STS is perhaps the most relevant with respect to TMR but until now all measurements have been made with Al superconducting films which have low superconducting transition temperatures (Tc) so that the measurements must be made at temperatures below 400mK. We demonstrate the use of superconducting electrodes formed from NbN which has a much higher Tc (˜16K) than Al. The use of NbN allows measurements of TSP at higher temperatures above 1K. We have observed the phenomenon of Kondo-assisted tunneling in planar magnetic tunnel junctions. We demonstrate not only an increased conductance at low bias but also show that the tunneling magnetoresistance is quenched in the Kondo regime. The Kondo effect may be a useful means of detecting and possibly manipulating the spins of individual electrons in nanodots.

Modeling annual extreme temperature using generalized extreme value distribution: A case study in Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hasan, Husna; Salam, Norfatin; Kassim, Suraiya

2013-04-01

Extreme temperature of several stations in Malaysia is modeled by fitting the annual maximum to the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution. The Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) and Phillips Perron (PP) tests are used to detect stochastic trends among the stations. The Mann-Kendall (MK) test suggests a non-stationary model. Three models are considered for stations with trend and the Likelihood Ratio test is used to determine the best-fitting model. The results show that Subang and Bayan Lepas stations favour a model which is linear for the location parameters while Kota Kinabalu and Sibu stations are suitable with a model in the logarithm of the scale parameters. The return level is the level of events (maximum temperature) which is expected to be exceeded once, on average, in a given number of years, is obtained.

Automated measurement of carbohydrate-deficient transferrin using the Bio-Rad %CDT by the HPLC test on a Variant HPLC system: evaluation and comparison with other routine procedures.

PubMed

Schellenberg, François; Mennetrey, Louise; Girre, Catherine; Nalpas, Bertrand; Pagès, Jean Christophe

2008-01-01

In this study, we evaluated the new %CDT by the HPLC method (Bio-Rad, Germany) on a Varianttrade mark HPLC system (Bio-Rad), checked the correlation with well-known methods and calculated the diagnostic value of the test. Intra-run and day-to-day precision values were calculated for samples with extreme serum transferrin concentrations, high trisialotransferrin and interfering conditions (haemolysed, lactescent and icteric samples). The method was compared with two routine procedures, the %CDT TIA (Bio-Rad, Hercules, CA, USA) and the Capillarystrade mark CDT (Sebia, France). A total of 350 clinical sera samples were used for a case-control study. Precision values were better in high CDT and medium CDT pools than in low CDT pools. The serum transferrin concentration had no effect on CDT measurement, except in samples with serum transferrin <1 g/L. Haemolysis was the only interfering situation. The method showed high correlation (r(2) > 0.95) with the two other methods (%CDT TIA and CZE %CDT). The global predictive value of the test was >0.90 at 1.9% cut-off. These results demonstrate that the %CDT by the HPLC test is suitable for CDT routine measurement; the results from the high-throughput Varianttrade mark system are well correlated with other methods and are of high diagnostic value.

Surface atmospheric extremes (Launch and transportation areas)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1972-01-01

The effects of extreme values of surface and low altitude atmospheric parameters on space vehicle design, tests, and operations are discussed. Atmospheric extremes from the surface to 150 meters for geographic locations of interest to NASA are given. Thermal parameters (temperature and solar radiation), humidity, pressure, and atmospheric electricity (lighting and static) are presented. Weather charts and tables are included.

Removing the effects of metamorphism from the Neoproterozoic carbon isotope record: a case study on Islay, western Scotland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Skelton, Alasdair

2016-04-01

The Port Askaig Formation on Islay, western Scotland is the first discovered tillite (glacial sediment) of Neoproterozoic age. This formation is sandwiched between carbonate rocks which preserve an extreme negative carbon isotope excursion. This so called "Islay anomaly" has been correlated with other such anomalies worldwide and together with the tillites has been cited as evidence of major (worldwide) glaciation events. During subsequent mountain building, this carbonate-tillite- carbonate sequence has been folded, producing a major en-echelon anticlinal fold system. Folding was accompanied by metamorphism at greenschist facies conditions which was, in turn, accompanied by metamorphic fluid flow. Mapping of the δ18O and δ13C values of these carbonate rocks reveals that metamorphic fluids were channelled through the axial region of the anticlinal fold. The metamorphic fluid was found to have a highly negative δ13C value, which was found to be in equilibrium with metamorphosed graphitic mudstones beneath the carbonate-tillite-carbonate sequence. Devolatilisation of these mudstones is therefore a likely source of this metamorphic fluid. Removal of the effects of metamorphic fluid flow on δ13C values recorded by metamorphosed carbonate rocks on Islay allows us to re-evaluate the isotopic evidence used to reconstruct Neoproterozoic climate. We are able to show that extreme negative δ13C values can partly be attributed to metamorphic fluid flow.

Extreme C2 and Multi-Touch, Multi-User Collaborative User Interfaces

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-06-01

Organization: Office of the Chief Engineer , Space and Naval Warfare Systems Center Charleston Address: PO Box 190022 N. Charleston, SC 29419 843...collaborative development technique can increase the adaptability and quality of software, something of high value in the complex domain of enterprise...concept to C2 should be able to produce similar benefits for planning in military operations, particularly complex, multi- faceted operations. This

Marine Surface Condenser Design Using Vertical Tubes Which Are Enhanced.

DTIC Science & Technology

1981-06-01

hydraulic diameter. 2. Tube Wall. Heat transfer resistance through the tube wall is dependent upon tube material , wall thickness, and a scaling...B. Heat Transfer Coefficient for a Tube Wall For materials such as pure copper which have extremely high values for thermal conductivity, the...mandate the use of materials with relatively low thermal con- ductivities. The thermal resistance of the tube wall is the reciprocal of the heat

Modeling plant density and ponding water effects on flooded rice evapotranspiration and crop coefficients: critical discussion about the concepts used in current methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aschonitis, Vassilis; Diamantopoulou, Maria; Papamichail, Dimitris

2018-05-01

The aim of the study is to propose new modeling approaches for daily estimations of crop coefficient K c for flooded rice ( Oryza sativa L., ssp. indica) under various plant densities. Non-linear regression (NLR) and artificial neural networks (ANN) were used to predict K c based on leaf area index LAI, crop height, wind speed, water albedo, and ponding water depth. Two years of evapotranspiration ET c measurements from lysimeters located in a Mediterranean environment were used in this study. The NLR approach combines bootstrapping and Bayesian sensitivity analysis based on a semi-empirical formula. This approach provided significant information about the hidden role of the same predictor variables in the Levenberg-Marquardt ANN approach, which improved K c predictions. Relationships of production versus ET c were also built and verified by data obtained from Australia. The results of the study showed that the daily K c values, under extremely high plant densities (e.g., for LAI max > 10), can reach extremely high values ( K c > 3) during the reproductive stage. Justifications given in the discussion question both the K c values given by FAO and the energy budget approaches, which assume that ET c cannot exceed a specific threshold defined by the net radiation. These approaches can no longer explain the continuous increase of global rice yields (currently are more than double in comparison to the 1960s) due to the improvement of cultivars and agriculture intensification. The study suggests that the safest method to verify predefined or modeled K c values is through preconstructed relationships of production versus ET c using field measurements.

Highly variable sperm precedence in the stalk-eyed fly, Teleopsis dalmanni

PubMed Central

Corley, Laura S; Cotton, Samuel; McConnell, Ellen; Chapman, Tracey; Fowler, Kevin; Pomiankowski, Andrew

2006-01-01

Background When females mate with different males, competition for fertilizations occurs after insemination. Such sperm competition is usually summarized at the level of the population or species by the parameter, P2, defined as the proportion of offspring sired by the second male in double mating trials. However, considerable variation in P2 may occur within populations, and such variation limits the utility of population-wide or species P2 estimates as descriptors of sperm usage. To fully understand the causes and consequences of sperm competition requires estimates of not only mean P2, but also intra-specific variation in P2. Here we investigate within-population quantitative variation in P2 using a controlled mating experiment and microsatellite profiling of progeny in the multiply mating stalk-eyed fly, Teleopsis dalmanni. Results We genotyped 381 offspring from 22 dam-sire pair families at four microsatellite loci. The mean population-wide P2 value of 0.40 was not significantly different from that expected under random sperm mixing (i.e. P2 = 0.5). However, patterns of paternity were highly variable between individual families; almost half of families displayed extreme second male biases resulting in zero or complete paternity, whereas only about one third of families had P2 values of 0.5, the remainder had significant, but moderate, paternity skew. Conclusion Our data suggest that all modes of ejaculate competition, from extreme sperm precedence to complete sperm mixing, occur in T. dalmanni. Thus the population mean P2 value does not reflect the high underlying variance in familial P2. We discuss some of the potential causes and consequences of post-copulatory sexual selection in this important model species. PMID:16800877

The influence of wheelchair propulsion technique on upper extremity muscle demand: a simulation study.

PubMed

Rankin, Jeffery W; Kwarciak, Andrew M; Richter, W Mark; Neptune, Richard R

2012-11-01

The majority of manual wheelchair users will experience upper extremity injuries or pain, in part due to the high force requirements, repetitive motion and extreme joint postures associated with wheelchair propulsion. Recent studies have identified cadence, contact angle and peak force as important factors for reducing upper extremity demand during propulsion. However, studies often make comparisons between populations (e.g., able-bodied vs. paraplegic) or do not investigate specific measures of upper extremity demand. The purpose of this study was to use a musculoskeletal model and forward dynamics simulations of wheelchair propulsion to investigate how altering cadence, peak force and contact angle influence individual muscle demand. Forward dynamics simulations of wheelchair propulsion were generated to emulate group-averaged experimental data during four conditions: 1) self-selected propulsion technique, and while 2) minimizing cadence, 3) maximizing contact angle, and 4) minimizing peak force using biofeedback. Simulations were used to determine individual muscle mechanical power and stress as measures of muscle demand. Minimizing peak force and cadence had the lowest muscle power requirements. However, minimizing peak force increased cadence and recovery power, while minimizing cadence increased average muscle stress. Maximizing contact angle increased muscle stress and had the highest muscle power requirements. Minimizing cadence appears to have the most potential for reducing muscle demand and fatigue, which could decrease upper extremity injuries and pain. However, altering any of these variables to extreme values appears to be less effective; instead small to moderate changes may better reduce overall muscle demand. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Recent Very Hot Summers in Northern Hemispheric Land Areas Measured by Wet Bulb Globe Temperature Will Be the Norm Within 20 Years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Chao; Zhang, Xuebin; Zwiers, Francis; Fang, Yuanyuan; Michalak, Anna M.

2017-12-01

Wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) accounts for the effect of environmental temperature and humidity on thermal comfort, and can be directly related to the ability of the human body to dissipate excess metabolic heat and thus avoid heat stress. Using WBGT as a measure of environmental conditions conducive to heat stress, we show that anthropogenic influence has very substantially increased the likelihood of extreme high summer mean WBGT in northern hemispheric land areas relative to the climate that would have prevailed in the absence of anthropogenic forcing. We estimate that the likelihood of summer mean WGBT exceeding the observed historical record value has increased by a factor of at least 70 at regional scales due to anthropogenic influence on the climate. We further estimate that, in most northern hemispheric regions, these changes in the likelihood of extreme summer mean WBGT are roughly an order of magnitude larger than the corresponding changes in the likelihood of extreme hot summers as simply measured by surface air temperature. Projections of future summer mean WBGT under the RCP8.5 emissions scenario that are constrained by observations indicate that by 2030s at least 50% of the summers will have mean WBGT higher than the observed historical record value in all the analyzed regions, and that this frequency of occurrence will increase to 95% by mid-century.

A global assessment of NASA AIRS v6 and EUMETSAT IASI v6 precipitable water vapor using ground-based GPS SuomiNet stations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roman, Jacola; Knuteson, Robert; August, Thomas; Hultberg, Tim; Ackerman, Steve; Revercomb, Hank

2016-08-01

Satellite remote sensing of precipitable water vapor (PWV) is essential for monitoring moisture in real time for weather applications, as well as tracking the long-term changes in PWV for climate change trend detection. This study assesses the accuracies of the current satellite observing system, specifically the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) v6 PWV product and the European Organization for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellite Studies (EUMETSAT) Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) v6 PWV product, using ground-based SuomiNet Global Positioning System (GPS) network as truth. Elevation-corrected collocated matchups to each SuomiNet GPS station in North America and around the world were created, and results were broken down by station, ARM region, climate zone, and latitude zone. The greatest difference, exceeding 5%, between IASI and AIRS retrievals occurred in the tropics. Generally, IASI and AIRS fall within a 5% error in the PWV range of 20-40 mm (a mean bias less than 2 mm), with a wet bias for extremely low PWV values (less than 5 mm) and a dry bias for extremely high PWV values (greater than 50 mm). The operational IR satellite products are able to capture the mean PWV but degrade in the extreme dry and wet regimes.

Association of physical examination with pulmonary artery catheter parameters in acute lung injury.

PubMed

Grissom, Colin K; Morris, Alan H; Lanken, Paul N; Ancukiewicz, Marek; Orme, James F; Schoenfeld, David A; Thompson, B Taylor

2009-10-01

To correlate physical examination findings, central venous pressure, fluid output, and central venous oxygen saturation with pulmonary artery catheter parameters. Retrospective study. Data from the multicenter Fluid and Catheter Treatment Trial of the National Institutes of Health Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome Network. Five hundred thirteen patients with acute lung injury randomized to treatment with a pulmonary artery catheter. Correlation of physical examination findings (capillary refill time >2 secs, knee mottling, or cool extremities), central venous pressure, fluid output, and central venous oxygen saturation with parameters from a pulmonary artery catheter. We determined association of baseline physical examination findings and on-study parameters of central venous pressure and central venous oxygen saturation with cardiac index <2.5 L/min/m2 and mixed venous oxygen saturation <60%. We determined correlation of baseline central venous oxygen saturation and mixed venous oxygen saturation and predictive value of a low central venous oxygen saturation for a low mixed venous oxygen saturation. Prevalence of cardiac index <2.5 and mixed venous oxygen saturation <60% was 8.1% and 15.5%, respectively. Baseline presence of all three physical examination findings had low sensitivity (12% and 8%), high specificity (98% and 99%), low positive predictive value (40% and 56%), but high negative predictive value (93% and 86%) for cardiac index <2.5 and mixed venous oxygen saturation <60%, respectively. Central venous oxygen saturation <70% predicted a mixed venous oxygen saturation <60% with a sensitivity 84%,specificity 70%, positive predictive value 31%, and negative predictive value of 96%. Low cardiac index correlated with cool extremities, high central venous pressure, and low 24-hr fluid output; and low mixed venous oxygen saturation correlated with knee mottling and high central venous pressure, but these correlations were not found to be clinically useful. In this subset of patients with acute lung injury, there is a high prior probability that cardiac index and mixed venous oxygen saturation are normal and physical examination findings of ineffective circulation are not useful for predicting low cardiac index or mixed venous oxygen saturation. Central venous oxygen saturation <70% does not accurately predict mixed venous oxygen saturation <60%, but a central venous oxygen saturation >or=70% may be useful to exclude mixed venous oxygen saturation <60%.

A model of high-rate indentation of a cylindrical striking pin into a deformable body

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zalazinskaya, E. A.; Zalazinsky, A. G.

2017-12-01

Mathematical modeling of an impact and high-rate indentation to a significant depth of a flat-faced hard cylindrical striking pin into a massive deformable target body is carried out. With the application of the kinematic extreme theorem of the plasticity theory and the kinetic energy variation theorem, the phase trajectories of the striking pin are calculated, the initial velocity of the striking pin in the body, the limit values of the inlet duct length, and the depth of striking pin penetration into the target are determined.

Quantifying uncertainties in wind energy assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Patlakas, Platon; Galanis, George; Kallos, George

2015-04-01

The constant rise of wind energy production and the subsequent penetration in global energy markets during the last decades resulted in new sites selection with various types of problems. Such problems arise due to the variability and the uncertainty of wind speed. The study of the wind speed distribution lower and upper tail may support the quantification of these uncertainties. Such approaches focused on extreme wind conditions or periods below the energy production threshold are necessary for a better management of operations. Towards this direction, different methodologies are presented for the credible evaluation of potential non-frequent/extreme values for these environmental conditions. The approaches used, take into consideration the structural design of the wind turbines according to their lifespan, the turbine failures, the time needed for repairing as well as the energy production distribution. In this work, a multi-parametric approach for studying extreme wind speed values will be discussed based on tools of Extreme Value Theory. In particular, the study is focused on extreme wind speed return periods and the persistence of no energy production based on a weather modeling system/hind cast/10-year dataset. More specifically, two methods (Annual Maxima and Peaks Over Threshold) were used for the estimation of extreme wind speeds and their recurrence intervals. Additionally, two different methodologies (intensity given duration and duration given intensity, both based on Annual Maxima method) were implied to calculate the extreme events duration, combined with their intensity as well as the event frequency. The obtained results prove that the proposed approaches converge, at least on the main findings, for each case. It is also remarkable that, despite the moderate wind speed climate of the area, several consequent days of no energy production are observed.

Optimal allocation of conservation resources to species that may be extinct.

PubMed

Rout, Tracy M; Heinze, Dean; McCarthy, Michael A

2010-08-01

Statements of extinction will always be uncertain because of imperfect detection of species in the wild. Two errors can be made when declaring a species extinct. Extinction can be declared prematurely, with a resulting loss of protection and management intervention. Alternatively, limited conservation resources can be wasted attempting to protect a species that no longer exists. Rather than setting an arbitrary level of certainty at which to declare extinction, we argue that the decision must trade off the expected costs of both errors. Optimal decisions depend on the cost of continued intervention, the probability the species is extant, and the estimated value of management (the benefit of management times the value of the species). We illustrated our approach with three examples: the Dodo (Raphus cucullatus), the Ivory-billed Woodpecker (U.S. subspecies Campephilus principalis principalis), and the mountain pygmy-possum (Burramys parvus). The dodo was extremely unlikely to be extant, so managing and monitoring for it today would not be cost-effective unless the value of management was extremely high. The probability the Ivory-billed woodpecker is extant depended on whether recent controversial sightings were accepted. Without the recent controversial sightings, it was optimal to declare extinction of the species in 1965 at the latest. Accepting the recent controversial sightings, it was optimal to continue monitoring and managing until 2032 at the latest. The mountain pygmy-possum is currently extant, with a rapidly declining sighting rate. It was optimal to conduct as many as 66 surveys without sighting before declaring the species extinct. The probability of persistence remained high even after many surveys without sighting because it was difficult to determine whether the species was extinct or undetected. If the value of management is high enough, continued intervention can be cost-effective even if the species is likely to be extinct.

Quality‐control of an hourly rainfall dataset and climatology of extremes for the UK

PubMed Central

Lewis, Elizabeth; Chan, Steven C.; Fowler, Hayley J.

2016-01-01

ABSTRACT Sub‐daily rainfall extremes may be associated with flash flooding, particularly in urban areas but, compared with extremes on daily timescales, have been relatively little studied in many regions. This paper describes a new, hourly rainfall dataset for the UK based on ∼1600 rain gauges from three different data sources. This includes tipping bucket rain gauge data from the UK Environment Agency (EA), which has been collected for operational purposes, principally flood forecasting. Significant problems in the use of such data for the analysis of extreme events include the recording of accumulated totals, high frequency bucket tips, rain gauge recording errors and the non‐operation of gauges. Given the prospect of an intensification of short‐duration rainfall in a warming climate, the identification of such errors is essential if sub‐daily datasets are to be used to better understand extreme events. We therefore first describe a series of procedures developed to quality control this new dataset. We then analyse ∼380 gauges with near‐complete hourly records for 1992–2011 and map the seasonal climatology of intense rainfall based on UK hourly extremes using annual maxima, n‐largest events and fixed threshold approaches. We find that the highest frequencies and intensities of hourly extreme rainfall occur during summer when the usual orographically defined pattern of extreme rainfall is replaced by a weaker, north–south pattern. A strong diurnal cycle in hourly extremes, peaking in late afternoon to early evening, is also identified in summer and, for some areas, in spring. This likely reflects the different mechanisms that generate sub‐daily rainfall, with convection dominating during summer. The resulting quality‐controlled hourly rainfall dataset will provide considerable value in several contexts, including the development of standard, globally applicable quality‐control procedures for sub‐daily data, the validation of the new generation of very high‐resolution climate models and improved understanding of the drivers of extreme rainfall. PMID:28239235

Validity and interobserver agreement of lower extremity local tissue water measurements in healthy women using tissue dielectric constant.

PubMed

Jensen, Mads R; Birkballe, Susanne; Nørregaard, Susan; Karlsmark, Tonny

2012-07-01

Tissue dielectric constant (TDC) measurement may become an important tool in the clinical evaluation of chronic lower extremity swelling in women; however, several factors are known to influence TDC measurements, and comparative data on healthy lower extremities are few. Thirty-four healthy women volunteered. Age, BMI, moisturizer use and hair removal were registered. Three blinded investigators performed TDC measurements in a randomized sequence on clearly marked locations on the foot, the ankle and the lower leg. The effective measuring depth was 2.5 mm. The mean TDC was 37.8 ± 5.5 (mean ± SD) on the foot, 29.0 ± 3.1 on the ankle and 30.5 ± 3.9 on the lower leg. TDC was highly dependent on measuring site (P<0.001) but did not vary significantly between investigators (P=0.127). Neither age, BMI, hair removal nor moisturizer use had any significant effect on the lower leg TDC. Intraclass correlation coefficients were 0.77 for the foot, 0.94 for the ankle and 0.94 for the lower leg. The TDC on the foot was significantly higher compared with ankle and lower leg values. Foot measurements should be interpreted cautiously because of questionable interobserver agreement. The interobserver agreement was high on lower leg and ankle measurements. Neither age, BMI, hair removal nor moisturizer use had any significant on effect on the lower leg TDC. TDC values of 35.2 for the ankle and 38.3 for the lower leg are suggested as upper normal reference limits in women. © 2012 The Authors Clinical Physiology and Functional Imaging © 2012 Scandinavian Society of Clinical Physiology and Nuclear Medicine.

Application of the Haines Index in the fire warning system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kalin, Lovro; Marija, Mokoric; Tomislav, Kozaric

2016-04-01

Croatia, as all Mediterranean countries, is strongly affected by large wildfires, particularly in the coastal region. In the last two decades the number and intensity of fires has been significantly increased, which is unanimously associated with climate change, e.g. global warming. More extreme fires are observed, and the fire-fighting season has been expanded to June and September. The meteorological support for fire protection and planning is therefore even more important. At the Meteorological and Hydrological Service of Croatia a comprehensive monitoring and warning system has been established. It includes standard components, such as short term forecast of Fire Weather Index (FWI), but long range forecast as well. However, due to more frequent hot and dry seasons, FWI index often does not provide additional information of extremely high fire danger, since it regularly takes the highest values for long periods. Therefore the additional tools have been investigated. One of widely used meteorological products is the Haines index (HI). It provides information of potential fire growth, taking into account only the vertical instability of the atmosphere, and not the state of the fuel. Several analyses and studies carried out at the Service confirmed the correlation of high HI values with large and extreme fires. The Haines index forecast has been used at the Service for several years, employing European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) global prediction model, as well as the limited-area Aladin model. The verification results show that these forecast are reliable, when compared to radiosonde measurements. All these results provided the introduction of the additional fire warnings, that are issued by the Service's Forecast Department.

High-Resolution Spectroscopic Study of Extremely Metal-Poor Star Candidates from the SkyMapper Survey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jacobson, Heather R.; Keller, Stefan; Frebel, Anna; Casey, Andrew R.; Asplund, Martin; Bessell, Michael S.; Da Costa, Gary S.; Lind, Karin; Marino, Anna F.; Norris, John E.; Peña, José M.; Schmidt, Brian P.; Tisserand, Patrick; Walsh, Jennifer M.; Yong, David; Yu, Qinsi

2015-07-01

The SkyMapper Southern Sky Survey is carrying out a search for the most metal-poor stars in the Galaxy. It identifies candidates by way of its unique filter set which allows for estimation of stellar atmospheric parameters. The set includes a narrow filter centered on the Ca ii K 3933 Å line, enabling a robust estimate of stellar metallicity. Promising candidates are then confirmed with spectroscopy. We present the analysis of Magellan Inamori Kyocera Echelle high-resolution spectroscopy of 122 metal-poor stars found by SkyMapper in the first two years of commissioning observations. Forty-one stars have [{Fe}/{{H}}]≤slant -3.0. Nine have [{Fe}/{{H}}]≤slant -3.5, with three at [{Fe}/{{H}}]∼ -4. A 1D LTE abundance analysis of the elements Li, C, Na, Mg, Al, Si, Ca, Sc, Ti, Cr, Mn, Co, Ni, Zn, Sr, Ba, and Eu shows these stars have [X/Fe] ratios typical of other halo stars. One star with low [X/Fe] values appears to be “Fe-enhanced,” while another star has an extremely large [Sr/Ba] ratio: \\gt 2. Only one other star is known to have a comparable value. Seven stars are “CEMP-no” stars ([{{C}}/{Fe}]\\gt 0.7, [{Ba}/{Fe}]\\lt 0). 21 stars exhibit mild r-process element enhancements (0.3≤slant [{Eu}/{Fe}]\\lt 1.0), while four stars have [{Eu}/{Fe}]≥slant 1.0. These results demonstrate the ability to identify extremely metal-poor stars from SkyMapper photometry, pointing to increased sample sizes and a better characterization of the metal-poor tail of the halo metallicity distribution function in the future. This paper includes data gathered with the 6.5 m Magellan Telescopes located at Las Campanas Observatory, Chile.

Combination of radar and daily precipitation data to estimate meaningful sub-daily point precipitation extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bárdossy, András; Pegram, Geoffrey

2017-01-01

The use of radar measurements for the space time estimation of precipitation has for many decades been a central topic in hydro-meteorology. In this paper we are interested specifically in daily and sub-daily extreme values of precipitation at gauged or ungauged locations which are important for design. The purpose of the paper is to develop a methodology to combine daily precipitation observations and radar measurements to estimate sub-daily extremes at point locations. Radar data corrected using precipitation-reflectivity relationships lead to biased estimations of extremes. Different possibilities of correcting systematic errors using the daily observations are investigated. Observed gauged daily amounts are interpolated to unsampled points and subsequently disaggregated using the sub-daily values obtained by the radar. Different corrections based on the spatial variability and the subdaily entropy of scaled rainfall distributions are used to provide unbiased corrections of short duration extremes. Additionally a statistical procedure not based on a matching day by day correction is tested. In this last procedure as we are only interested in rare extremes, low to medium values of rainfall depth were neglected leaving a small number of L days of ranked daily maxima in each set per year, whose sum typically comprises about 50% of each annual rainfall total. The sum of these L day maxima is first iterpolated using a Kriging procedure. Subsequently this sum is disaggregated to daily values using a nearest neighbour procedure. The daily sums are then disaggregated by using the relative values of the biggest L radar based days. Of course, the timings of radar and gauge maxima can be different, so the method presented here uses radar for disaggregating daily gauge totals down to 15 min intervals in order to extract the maxima of sub-hourly through to daily rainfall. The methodologies were tested in South Africa, where an S-band radar operated relatively continuously at Bethlehem from 1998 to 2003, whose scan at 1.5 km above ground [CAPPI] overlapped a dense (10 km spacing) set of 45 pluviometers recording in the same 6-year period. This valuable set of data was obtained from each of 37 selected radar pixels [1 km square in plan] which contained a pluviometer not masked out by the radar foot-print. The pluviometer data were also aggregated to daily totals, for the same purpose. The extremes obtained using disaggregation methods were compared to the observed extremes in a cross validation procedure. The unusual and novel goal was not to obtain the reproduction of the precipitation matching in space and time, but to obtain frequency distributions of the point extremes, which we found to be stable.

Physico-chemical quality and homogeneity of folic acid and iron in enriched flour using principal component analysis.

PubMed

Soeiro, Bruno T; Boen, Thaís R; Wagner, Roger; Lima-Pallone, Juliana A

2009-01-01

The aim of the present work was to determine parameters of the corn and wheat flour matrix, such as protein, lipid, moisture, ash and carbohydrates, folic acid and iron contents. Three principal components explained 91% of the total variance. Wheat flours were characterized by high protein and moisture content. On the other hand, the corn flours had the greater carbohydrates, lipids and folic acid levels. The concentrations of folic acid were lower than the issued value for wheat flours. Nevertheless, corn flours presented extremely high values. The iron concentration was higher than that recommended in Brazilian legislation. Poor homogenization of folic acid and iron was observed in enriched flours. This study could be useful to help the governmental authorities in the enriched food programs evaluation.

Modelling average maximum daily temperature using r largest order statistics: An application to South African data

PubMed Central

2018-01-01

Natural hazards (events that may cause actual disasters) are established in the literature as major causes of various massive and destructive problems worldwide. The occurrences of earthquakes, floods and heat waves affect millions of people through several impacts. These include cases of hospitalisation, loss of lives and economic challenges. The focus of this study was on the risk reduction of the disasters that occur because of extremely high temperatures and heat waves. Modelling average maximum daily temperature (AMDT) guards against the disaster risk and may also help countries towards preparing for extreme heat. This study discusses the use of the r largest order statistics approach of extreme value theory towards modelling AMDT over the period of 11 years, that is, 2000–2010. A generalised extreme value distribution for r largest order statistics is fitted to the annual maxima. This is performed in an effort to study the behaviour of the r largest order statistics. The method of maximum likelihood is used in estimating the target parameters and the frequency of occurrences of the hottest days is assessed. The study presents a case study of South Africa in which the data for the non-winter season (September–April of each year) are used. The meteorological data used are the AMDT that are collected by the South African Weather Service and provided by Eskom. The estimation of the shape parameter reveals evidence of a Weibull class as an appropriate distribution for modelling AMDT in South Africa. The extreme quantiles for specified return periods are estimated using the quantile function and the best model is chosen through the use of the deviance statistic with the support of the graphical diagnostic tools. The Entropy Difference Test (EDT) is used as a specification test for diagnosing the fit of the models to the data.

Delineation of Spatial Variability in the Temperature-Mortality Relationship on Extremely Hot Days in Greater Vancouver, Canada.

PubMed

Ho, Hung Chak; Knudby, Anders; Walker, Blake Byron; Henderson, Sarah B

2017-01-01

Climate change has increased the frequency and intensity of extremely hot weather. The health risks associated with extemely hot weather are not uniform across affected areas owing to variability in heat exposure and social vulnerability, but these differences are challenging to map with precision. We developed a spatially and temporally stratified case-crossover approach for delineation of areas with higher and lower risks of mortality on extremely hot days and applied this approach in greater Vancouver, Canada. Records of all deaths with an extremely hot day as a case day or a control day were extracted from an administrative vital statistics database spanning the years of 1998-2014. Three heat exposure and 11 social vulnerability variables were assigned at the residential location of each decedent. Conditional logistic regression was used to estimate the odds ratio for a 1°C increase in daily mean temperature at a fixed site with an interaction term for decedents living above and below different values of the spatial variables. The heat exposure and social vulnerability variables with the strongest spatially stratified results were the apparent temperature and the labor nonparticipation rate, respectively. Areas at higher risk had values ≥ 34.4°C for the maximum apparent temperature and ≥ 60% of the population neither employed nor looking for work. These variables were combined in a composite index to quantify their interaction and to enhance visualization of high-risk areas. Our methods provide a data-driven framework for spatial delineation of the temperature--mortality relationship by heat exposure and social vulnerability. The results can be used to map and target the most vulnerable areas for public health intervention. Citation: Ho HC, Knudby A, Walker BB, Henderson SB. 2017. Delineation of spatial variability in the temperature-mortality relationship on extremely hot days in greater Vancouver, Canada. Environ Health Perspect 125:66-75; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/EHP224.

Delineation of Spatial Variability in the Temperature–Mortality Relationship on Extremely Hot Days in Greater Vancouver, Canada

PubMed Central

Ho, Hung Chak; Knudby, Anders; Walker, Blake Byron; Henderson, Sarah B.

2016-01-01

Background: Climate change has increased the frequency and intensity of extremely hot weather. The health risks associated with extemely hot weather are not uniform across affected areas owing to variability in heat exposure and social vulnerability, but these differences are challenging to map with precision. Objectives: We developed a spatially and temporally stratified case-crossover approach for delineation of areas with higher and lower risks of mortality on extremely hot days and applied this approach in greater Vancouver, Canada. Methods: Records of all deaths with an extremely hot day as a case day or a control day were extracted from an administrative vital statistics database spanning the years of 1998–2014. Three heat exposure and 11 social vulnerability variables were assigned at the residential location of each decedent. Conditional logistic regression was used to estimate the odds ratio for a 1°C increase in daily mean temperature at a fixed site with an interaction term for decedents living above and below different values of the spatial variables. Results: The heat exposure and social vulnerability variables with the strongest spatially stratified results were the apparent temperature and the labor nonparticipation rate, respectively. Areas at higher risk had values ≥ 34.4°C for the maximum apparent temperature and ≥ 60% of the population neither employed nor looking for work. These variables were combined in a composite index to quantify their interaction and to enhance visualization of high-risk areas. Conclusions: Our methods provide a data-driven framework for spatial delineation of the temperature-–mortality relationship by heat exposure and social vulnerability. The results can be used to map and target the most vulnerable areas for public health intervention. Citation: Ho HC, Knudby A, Walker BB, Henderson SB. 2017. Delineation of spatial variability in the temperature–mortality relationship on extremely hot days in greater Vancouver, Canada. Environ Health Perspect 125:66–75; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/EHP224 PMID:27346526

Extremely frequency-widened terahertz wave generation using Cherenkov-type radiation.

PubMed

Suizu, Koji; Koketsu, Kaoru; Shibuya, Takayuki; Tsutsui, Toshihiro; Akiba, Takuya; Kawase, Kodo

2009-04-13

Terahertz (THz) wave generation based on nonlinear frequency conversion is promising way for realizing a tunable monochromatic bright THz-wave source. Such a development of efficient and wide tunable THz-wave source depends on discovery of novel brilliant nonlinear crystal. Important factors of a nonlinear crystal for THz-wave generation are, 1. High nonlinearity and 2. Good transparency at THz frequency region. Unfortunately, many nonlinear crystals have strong absorption at THz frequency region. The fact limits efficient and wide tunable THz-wave generation. Here, we show that Cherenkov radiation with waveguide structure is an effective strategy for achieving efficient and extremely wide tunable THz-wave source. We fabricated MgO-doped lithium niobate slab waveguide with 3.8 microm of thickness and demonstrated difference frequency generation of THz-wave generation with Cherenkov phase matching. Extremely frequency-widened THz-wave generation, from 0.1 to 7.2 THz, without no structural dips successfully obtained. The tuning frequency range of waveguided Cherenkov radiation source was extremely widened compare to that of injection seeded-Terahertz Parametric Generator. The tuning range obtained in this work for THz-wave generation using lithium niobate crystal was the widest value in our knowledge. The highest THz-wave energy obtained was about 3.2 pJ, and the energy conversion efficiency was about 10(-5) %. The method can be easily applied for many conventional nonlinear crystals, results in realizing simple, reasonable, compact, high efficient and ultra broad band THz-wave sources.

Future changes of precipitation characteristics in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, S.; Wu, Y.; Wen, J.

2017-12-01

Global warming has the potential to alter the hydrological cycle, with significant impacts on the human society, the environment and ecosystems. This study provides a detailed assessment of potential changes in precipitation characteristics in China using a suite of 12 high-resolution CMIP5 climate models under a medium and a high Representative Concentration Pathways: RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. We examine future changes over the entire distribution of precipitation, and identify any shift in the shape and/or scale of the distribution. In addition, we use extreme-value theory to evaluate the change in probability and magnitude for extreme precipitation events. Overall, China is going to experience an increase in total precipitation (by 8% under RCP4.5 and 12% under RCP8.5). This increase is uneven spatially, with more increase in the west and less increase in the east. Precipitation frequency is projected to increase in the west and decrease in the east. Under RCP4.5, the overall precipitation frequency for the entire China remains largely unchanged (0.08%). However, RCP8.5 projects a more significant decrease in frequency for large part of China, resulting in an overall decrease of 2.08%. Precipitation intensity is likely increase more uniformly, with an overall increase of 11% for RCP4.5 and 19% for RCP8.5. Precipitation increases for all parts of the distribution, but the increase is more for higher quantiles, i.e. strong events. The relative contribution of small quantiles is likely to decrease, whereas contribution from heavy events is likely to increase. Extreme precipitation increase at much higher rates than average precipitation, and high rates of increase are expected for more extreme events. 1-year events are likely to increase by 15%, but 20-year events are going to increase by 21% under RCP4.5, 26% and 40% respectively under RCP8.5. The increase of extreme events is likely to be more spatially uniform.

Estimation of Future Return Levels for Heavy Rainfall in the Iberian Peninsula: Comparison of Methodologies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parey, S.

2014-12-01

F. J. Acero1, S. Parey2, T.T.H. Hoang2, D. Dacunha-Castelle31Dpto. Física, Universidad de Extremadura, Avda. de Elvas s/n, 06006, Badajoz 2EDF/R&D, 6 quai Watier, 78401 Chatou Cedex, France 3Laboratoire de Mathématiques, Université Paris 11, Orsay, France Trends can already be detected in daily rainfall amount in the Iberian Peninsula (IP), and this will have an impact on the extreme levels. In this study, we compare different ways to estimate future return levels for heavy rainfall, based on the statistical extreme value theory. Both Peaks over Threshold (POT) and block maxima with the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution will be used and their results compared when linear trends are assumed in the parameters: threshold and scale parameter for POT and location and scale parameter for GEV. But rainfall over the IP is a special variable in that a large number of the values are 0. Thus, the impact of taking this into account is discussed too. Another approach is then tested, based on the evolutions of the mean and variance obtained from the time series of rainy days only, and of the number of rainy days. A statistical test, similar to that designed for temperature in Parey et al. 2013, is used to assess if the trends in extremes can be considered as mostly due to these evolutions when considering only rainy days. The results show that it is mainly the case: the extremes of the residuals, after removing the trends in mean and standard deviation, cannot be differentiated from those of a stationary process. Thus, the future return levels can be estimated from the stationary return level of these residuals and an estimation of the future mean and standard deviation. Moreover, an estimation of the future number of rainy days is used to retrieve the return levels for all days. All of these comparisons are made for an ensemble of high quality rainfall time series observed in the Iberian Peninsula over the period 1961-2010, from which we want to estimate a 20-year return level expected in 2020. The evolutions and the impact of the different approaches will be discussed for 3 seasons: fall, spring and winter. Parey S., Hoang T.T.H., Dacunha-Castelle D.: The importance of mean and variance in predicting changes in temperature extremes, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 118, 1-12, 2013.

Exome sequencing in schizophrenic patients with high levels of homozygosity identifies novel and extremely rare mutations in the GABA/glutamatergic pathways.

PubMed

Giacopuzzi, Edoardo; Gennarelli, Massimo; Minelli, Alessandra; Gardella, Rita; Valsecchi, Paolo; Traversa, Michele; Bonvicini, Cristian; Vita, Antonio; Sacchetti, Emilio; Magri, Chiara

2017-01-01

Inbreeding is a known risk factor for recessive Mendelian diseases and previous studies have suggested that it could also play a role in complex disorders, such as psychiatric diseases. Recent inbreeding results in the presence of long runs of homozygosity (ROHs) along the genome, which are also defined as autozygosity regions. Genetic variants in these regions have two alleles that are identical by descent, thus increasing the odds of bearing rare recessive deleterious mutations due to a homozygous state. A recent study showed a suggestive enrichment of long ROHs in schizophrenic patients, suggesting that recent inbreeding could play a role in the disease. To better understand the impact of autozygosity on schizophrenia risk, we selected, from a cohort of 180 Italian patients, seven subjects with extremely high numbers of large ROHs that were likely due to recent inbreeding and characterized the mutational landscape within their ROHs using Whole Exome Sequencing and, gene set enrichment analysis. We identified a significant overlap (17%; empirical p-value = 0.0171) between genes inside ROHs affected by low frequency functional homozygous variants (107 genes) and the group of most promising candidate genes mutated in schizophrenia. Moreover, in four patients, we identified novel and extremely rare damaging mutations in the genes involved in neurodevelopment (MEGF8) and in GABA/glutamatergic synaptic transmission (GAD1, FMN1, ANO2). These results provide insights into the contribution of rare recessive mutations and inbreeding as risk factors for schizophrenia. ROHs that are likely due to recent inbreeding harbor a combination of predisposing low-frequency variants and extremely rare variants that have a high impact on pivotal biological pathways implicated in the disease. In addition, this study confirms that focusing on patients with high levels of homozygosity could be a useful prioritization strategy for discovering new high-impact mutations in genetically complex disorders.

Extreme values and fat tails of multifractal fluctuations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muzy, J. F.; Bacry, E.; Kozhemyak, A.

2006-06-01

In this paper we discuss the problem of the estimation of extreme event occurrence probability for data drawn from some multifractal process. We also study the heavy (power-law) tail behavior of probability density function associated with such data. We show that because of strong correlations, the standard extreme value approach is not valid and classical tail exponent estimators should be interpreted cautiously. Extreme statistics associated with multifractal random processes turn out to be characterized by non-self-averaging properties. Our considerations rely upon some analogy between random multiplicative cascades and the physics of disordered systems and also on recent mathematical results about the so-called multifractal formalism. Applied to financial time series, our findings allow us to propose an unified framework that accounts for the observed multiscaling properties of return fluctuations, the volatility clustering phenomenon and the observed “inverse cubic law” of the return pdf tails.

Probability distribution of extreme share returns in Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zin, Wan Zawiah Wan; Safari, Muhammad Aslam Mohd; Jaaman, Saiful Hafizah; Yie, Wendy Ling Shin

2014-09-01

The objective of this study is to investigate the suitable probability distribution to model the extreme share returns in Malaysia. To achieve this, weekly and monthly maximum daily share returns are derived from share prices data obtained from Bursa Malaysia over the period of 2000 to 2012. The study starts with summary statistics of the data which will provide a clue on the likely candidates for the best fitting distribution. Next, the suitability of six extreme value distributions, namely the Gumbel, Generalized Extreme Value (GEV), Generalized Logistic (GLO) and Generalized Pareto (GPA), the Lognormal (GNO) and the Pearson (PE3) distributions are evaluated. The method of L-moments is used in parameter estimation. Based on several goodness of fit tests and L-moment diagram test, the Generalized Pareto distribution and the Pearson distribution are found to be the best fitted distribution to represent the weekly and monthly maximum share returns in Malaysia stock market during the studied period, respectively.

Extreme value laws for fractal intensity functions in dynamical systems: Minkowski analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mantica, Giorgio; Perotti, Luca

2016-09-01

Typically, in the dynamical theory of extremal events, the function that gauges the intensity of a phenomenon is assumed to be convex and maximal, or singular, at a single, or at most a finite collection of points in phase-space. In this paper we generalize this situation to fractal landscapes, i.e. intensity functions characterized by an uncountable set of singularities, located on a Cantor set. This reveals the dynamical rôle of classical quantities like the Minkowski dimension and content, whose definition we extend to account for singular continuous invariant measures. We also introduce the concept of extremely rare event, quantified by non-standard Minkowski constants and we study its consequences to extreme value statistics. Limit laws are derived from formal calculations and are verified by numerical experiments. Dedicated to the memory of Joseph Ford, on the twentieth anniversary of his departure.

Identifying evidence of climate change impact on extreme events in permeable chalk catchments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Butler, A. P.; Nubert, S.

2009-12-01

The permeable chalk catchments of southern England are vital for the economy and well being of the UK. Not only important as a water resource, their freely draining soils support intensive agricultural production, and the rolling downs and chalk streams provide important habitants for many protected plant and animal species. Consequently, there are concerns about the potential impact of climate change on such catchments, particularly in relation to groundwater recharge. Of major concern are possible changes in extreme events, such as groundwater floods and droughts, as any increase in the frequency and/or severity of these has important consequences for water resources, ecological systems and local infrastructure. Studies of climate change impact on extreme events for such catchments have indicated that, under medium and high emissions scenarios, droughts are likely to become more severe whilst floods less so. However, given the uncertainties in such predictions and the inherent variability in historic data, producing definitive evidence of changes in flood/drought frequency/severity poses a significant challenge. Thus, there is a need for specific extreme event statistics that can be used as indicators of actual climate change in streamflow and groundwater level observations. Identifying such indicators that are sufficiently robust requires catchments with long historic time series data. One such catchment is the River Lavant, an intermittent chalk stream in West Sussex, UK. Located within this catchment is Chilgrove House, the site of the UK’s longest groundwater monitoring well (with a continuous record of water level observations of varying frequency dating back to 1836). Using a variety of meteorological datasets, the behaviour of the catchment has been modelled, from 1855 to present, using a 'leaky aquifer' conceptual model. Model calibration was based on observed daily streamflow, at a gauging station just outside the town of Chichester, from 1970. Long-term performance was assessed using groundwater levels at various long period observation wells, including Chilgrove. Extreme event analyses (annual maximum daily flow, annual minimum groundwater level) based on historic model runs, looking at successive 30 year time periods, show high variability in the values of extreme events, However, there is far less (by an order of magnitude) variation in more frequent (i.e. less extreme) events with a recurrence interval of around 0.6 (i.e. a return period of around 1.67 years). Simulations of climate change impact for 2020 emission scenarios using UKCIP02 data give 0.6 recurrence estimates that are significantly different (at the 1% confidence level) than those obtained from historic data, which is not the case for more extreme events. It is proposed that, at least for such permeable catchments, deviations from historic values of this relatively frequent recurrence interval provide a more robust indicator for detecting evidence of climate change than focusing on much rarer, albeit more dramatic, events.

A dependence modelling study of extreme rainfall in Madeira Island

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gouveia-Reis, Délia; Guerreiro Lopes, Luiz; Mendonça, Sandra

2016-08-01

The dependence between variables plays a central role in multivariate extremes. In this paper, spatial dependence of Madeira Island's rainfall data is addressed within an extreme value copula approach through an analysis of maximum annual data. The impact of altitude, slope orientation, distance between rain gauge stations and distance from the stations to the sea are investigated for two different periods of time. The results obtained highlight the influence of the island's complex topography on the spatial distribution of extreme rainfall in Madeira Island.

Demonstrating the Value of Near Real-time Satellite-based Earth Observations in a Research and Education Framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chiu, L.; Hao, X.; Kinter, J. L.; Stearn, G.; Aliani, M.

2017-12-01

The launch of GOES-16 series provides an opportunity to advance near real-time applications in natural hazard detection, monitoring and warning. This study demonstrates the capability and values of receiving real-time satellite-based Earth observations over a fast terrestrial networks and processing high-resolution remote sensing data in a university environment. The demonstration system includes 4 components: 1) Near real-time data receiving and processing; 2) data analysis and visualization; 3) event detection and monitoring; and 4) information dissemination. Various tools are developed and integrated to receive and process GRB data in near real-time, produce images and value-added data products, and detect and monitor extreme weather events such as hurricane, fire, flooding, fog, lightning, etc. A web-based application system is developed to disseminate near-real satellite images and data products. The images are generated with GIS-compatible format (GeoTIFF) to enable convenient use and integration in various GIS platforms. This study enhances the capacities for undergraduate and graduate education in Earth system and climate sciences, and related applications to understand the basic principles and technology in real-time applications with remote sensing measurements. It also provides an integrated platform for near real-time monitoring of extreme weather events, which are helpful for various user communities.

The extrudate swell of HDPE: Rheological effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Konaganti, Vinod Kumar; Ansari, Mahmoud; Mitsoulis, Evan; Hatzikiriakos, Savvas G.

2017-05-01

The extrudate swell of an industrial grade high molecular weight high-density polyethylene (HDPE) in capillary dies is studied experimentally and numerically using the integral K-BKZ constitutive model. The non-linear viscoelastic flow properties of the polymer resin are studied for a broad range of large step shear strains and high shear rates using the cone partitioned plate (CPP) geometry of the stress/strain controlled rotational rheometer. This allowed the determination of the rheological parameters accurately, in particular the damping function, which is proven to be the most important in simulating transient flows such as extrudate swell. A series of simulations performed using the integral K-BKZ Wagner model with different values of the Wagner exponent n, ranging from n=0.15 to 0.5, demonstrates that the extrudate swell predictions are extremely sensitive to the Wagner damping function exponent. Using the correct n-value resulted in extrudate swell predictions that are in excellent agreement with experimental measurements.

Flexible displays as key for high-value and unique automotive design

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Isele, Robert

2011-03-01

Within the last few years' car industry changed very fast. Information and Communication became more important and displays are now standard in nearly every car. But this is not the only trend which could be recognized in this industry. CO2 emission, fuel price as well as the increasing traffic inside the Mega Cities initialized a big change in the behavior of the customers. The big battle for the car industry will enter the interior extremely fast, and the premium cars need ore innovative design icons. Flexible Displays are one big step that enables totally different designs and a new value of the driver experience.

Normal-pressure Tests of Circular Plates with Clamped Edges

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mcpherson, Albert E; Ramberg, Walter; Levy, Samuel

1942-01-01

A fixture is described for making normal-pressure tests of flat plates 5 inches in diameter in which particular care was taken to obtain rigid clamping at the edges. Results are given for 19 plates, ranging in thickness from 0.015 to 0.072 inch. The center deflections and the extreme-fiber stresses at low pressures were found to agree with theoretical values; the center deflections at high pressures were 4 to 12 percent greater than the theoretical values. Empirical curves are derived of the pressure for the beginning of permanent set as a function of the dimensions of the plate and the tensile properties of the material.

Normal-Pressure Tests of Circular Plates with Clamped Edges

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mcpherson, Albert E; Ramberg, Walter; Levy, Samuel

1942-01-01

A fixture is described for making normal-pressure tests of flat plates 5 inches in diameter in which particular care was taken to obtain rigid clamping at the edges. Results are given for 19 plates, ranging in thickness form 0.015 to 0.072 inch. The center deflections and the extreme-fiber stresses at low pressures were found to agree with theoretical values; the center deflections at high pressures were 4 to 12 percent greater than the theoretical values. Empirical curves are derived of the pressure for the beginning of the permanent set as a function of the dimensions of the plate and the tensile properties of the material.

A Dosimetry Study of Deuterium-Deuterium Neutron Generator-based In Vivo Neutron Activation Analysis.

PubMed

Sowers, Daniel; Liu, Yingzi; Mostafaei, Farshad; Blake, Scott; Nie, Linda H

2015-12-01

A neutron irradiation cavity for in vivo neutron activation analysis (IVNAA) to detect manganese, aluminum, and other potentially toxic elements in human hand bone has been designed and its dosimetric specifications measured. The neutron source is a customized deuterium-deuterium neutron generator that produces neutrons at 2.45 MeV by the fusion reaction 2H(d, n)3He at a calculated flux of 7 × 10(8) ± 30% s(-1). A moderator/reflector/shielding [5 cm high density polyethylene (HDPE), 5.3 cm graphite and 5.7 cm borated (HDPE)] assembly has been designed and built to maximize the thermal neutron flux inside the hand irradiation cavity and to reduce the extremity dose and effective dose to the human subject. Lead sheets are used to attenuate bremsstrahlung x rays and activation gammas. A Monte Carlo simulation (MCNP6) was used to model the system and calculate extremity dose. The extremity dose was measured with neutron and photon sensitive film badges and Fuji electronic pocket dosimeters (EPD). The neutron ambient dose outside the shielding was measured by Fuji NSN3, and the photon dose was measured by a Bicron MicroREM scintillator. Neutron extremity dose was calculated to be 32.3 mSv using MCNP6 simulations given a 10-min IVNAA measurement of manganese. Measurements by EPD and film badge indicate hand dose to be 31.7 ± 0.8 mSv for neutrons and 4.2 ± 0.2 mSv for photons for 10 min; whole body effective dose was calculated conservatively to be 0.052 mSv. Experimental values closely match values obtained from MCNP6 simulations. These are acceptable doses to apply the technology for a manganese toxicity study in a human population.

Upper-tropospheric environment-tropical cyclone interactions over the western North Pacific: A statistical study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qian, Yu-Kun; Liang, Chang-Xia; Yuan, Zhuojian; Peng, Shiqiu; Wu, Junjie; Wang, Sihua

2016-05-01

Based on 25-year (1987-2011) tropical cyclone (TC) best track data, a statistical study was carried out to investigate the basic features of upper-tropospheric TC-environment interactions over the western North Pacific. Interaction was defined as the absolute value of eddy momentum flux convergence (EFC) exceeding 10 m s-1 d-1. Based on this definition, it was found that 18% of all six-hourly TC samples experienced interaction. Extreme interaction cases showed that EFC can reach ~120 m s-1 d-1 during the extratropical-cyclone (EC) stage, an order of magnitude larger than reported in previous studies. Composite analysis showed that positive interactions are characterized by a double-jet flow pattern, rather than the traditional trough pattern, because it is the jets that bring in large EFC from the upper-level environment to the TC center. The role of the outflow jet is also enhanced by relatively low inertial stability, as compared to the inflow jet. Among several environmental factors, it was found that extremely large EFC is usually accompanied by high inertial stability, low SST and strong vertical wind shear (VWS). Thus, the positive effect of EFC is cancelled by their negative effects. Only those samples during the EC stage, whose intensities were less dependent on VWS and the underlying SST, could survive in extremely large EFC environments, or even re-intensify. For classical TCs (not in the EC stage), it was found that environments with a moderate EFC value generally below ~25 m s-1 d-1 are more favorable for a TC's intensification than those with extremely large EFC.

Temporal development of extreme precipitation in Germany projected by EURO-CORDEX simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brendel, Christoph; Deutschländer, Thomas

2017-04-01

A sustainable operation of transport infrastructure requires an enhanced resilience to the increasing impacts of climate change and related extreme meteorological events. To meet this challenge, the German Federal Ministry of Transport and Digital Infrastructure (BMVI) commenced a comprehensive national research program on safe and sustainable transport in Germany. A network of departmental research institutes addresses the "Adaptation of the German transport infrastructure towards climate change and extreme events". Various studies already have identified an increase in the average global precipitation for the 20th century. There is some indication that these increases are most visible in a rising frequency of precipitation extremes. However, the changes are highly variable between regions and seasons. With a further increase of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations in the 21st century, the likelihood of occurrence of such extreme events will continue to rise. A kernel estimator has been used in order to obtain a robust estimate of the temporal development of extreme precipitation events projected by an ensemble of EURO-CORDEX simulations. The kernel estimator measures the intensity of the poisson point process indicating temporal changes in the frequency of extreme events. Extreme precipitation events were selected using the peaks over threshold (POT) method with the 90th, 95th and 99th quantile of daily precipitation sums as thresholds. Application of this non-parametric approach with relative thresholds renders the use of a bias correction non-mandatory. In addition, in comparison to fitting an extreme value theory (EVT) distribution, the method is completely unsusceptible to outliers. First results show an overall increase of extreme precipitation events for Germany until the end of the 21st century. However, major differences between seasons, quantiles and the three different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5) have been identified. For instance, the frequency of extreme precipitation events more than triples in the most extreme scenario. Regional differences are rather small with the largest increase in northern Germany, particularly in coastal regions and the weakest increase in the most southern parts of Germany.

Current status and future prospects of Japanese national project on coated conductor development and its applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shiohara, Y.; Yoshizumi, M.; Izumi, T.; Yamada, Y.

2008-09-01

Four years of the current five-year national project since 2003 for development of coated conductors using Y-system superconductors have passed and lots of remarkable results have been achieved. In this paper, the current status and the future prospect of this project are reviewed. The current national project comprises several groups of national laboratories, universities and private companies. The group of high performance tape development, consisting of Fujikura and SRL-NCCC, has worked on the tape by PLD-REBCO superconducting tapes on the PLD-CeO 2/IBAD-GZO buffered substrates. The high product of Ic and L equal to 112,166 A m was achieved in the 368 m-304.8 A GdBCO tape whose Ic value is mostly above 350 A/cm-w. The performance under the magnetic fields was also improved up to 42 A at 3 T in a GdBCO short film with doping of ZrO 2. About 61 m long GdBCO tape with ZrO 2 doping showed a high Ic value of 220 A at self field and 30 A at 3 T. On the other hand, the other group focusing on the low production cost has worked on processes of TFA-MOD and MOCVD, etc. The extremely high Ic value of 735 A/cm-w was attained in the TFA-MOD films on PLD-CeO 2/IBAD-GZO/Hastelloy C276 substrate by means of using the effect of Ba-poor nominal composition. In the efforts for long tape production, 200 m long tapes with high Ic values of 200 A/cm-w and 205 A/cm-w were obtained by MOD-YBCO/PLD-CeO 2/IBAD-GZO/Hastelloy C276 and PLD-HoBCO on buffered NiW substrate, respectively. The Ic × L value of the MOD-derived tape was 40,000 A m, which is the highest value in the world by the MOD process. Based on the above achievements on the coated conductor process development, two new additional goals were set in the project. One is the development for the extremely low cost tape and another is the development of the basic technologies for making the electric power devices including cables, transformers, motors, current-limiters and cryocoolers. Some of the new themes already revealed the marvellous results such as 15 kW motor, low AC loss coils, low AC loss cables, etc.

A New Approach to Extreme Value Estimation Applicable to a Wide Variety of Random Variables

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Holland, Frederic A., Jr.

1997-01-01

Designing reliable structures requires an estimate of the maximum and minimum values (i.e., strength and load) that may be encountered in service. Yet designs based on very extreme values (to insure safety) can result in extra material usage and hence, uneconomic systems. In aerospace applications, severe over-design cannot be tolerated making it almost mandatory to design closer to the assumed limits of the design random variables. The issue then is predicting extreme values that are practical, i.e. neither too conservative or non-conservative. Obtaining design values by employing safety factors is well known to often result in overly conservative designs and. Safety factor values have historically been selected rather arbitrarily, often lacking a sound rational basis. To answer the question of how safe a design needs to be has lead design theorists to probabilistic and statistical methods. The so-called three-sigma approach is one such method and has been described as the first step in utilizing information about the data dispersion. However, this method is based on the assumption that the random variable is dispersed symmetrically about the mean and is essentially limited to normally distributed random variables. Use of this method can therefore result in unsafe or overly conservative design allowables if the common assumption of normality is incorrect.

Impacts of Model Bias on the Climate Change Signal and Effects of Weighted Ensembles of Regional Climate Model Simulations: A Case Study over Southern Québec, Canada

DOE PAGES

Eum, Hyung-Il; Gachon, Philippe; Laprise, René

2016-01-01

This study examined the impact of model biases on climate change signals for daily precipitation and for minimum and maximum temperatures. Through the use of multiple climate scenarios from 12 regional climate model simulations, the ensemble mean, and three synthetic simulations generated by a weighting procedure, we investigated intermodel seasonal climate change signals between current and future periods, for both median and extreme precipitation/temperature values. A significant dependence of seasonal climate change signals on the model biases over southern Québec in Canada was detected for temperatures, but not for precipitation. This suggests that the regional temperature change signal is affectedmore » by local processes. Seasonally, model bias affects future mean and extreme values in winter and summer. In addition, potentially large increases in future extremes of temperature and precipitation values were projected. For three synthetic scenarios, systematically less bias and a narrow range of mean change for all variables were projected compared to those of climate model simulations. In addition, synthetic scenarios were found to better capture the spatial variability of extreme cold temperatures than the ensemble mean scenario. Finally, these results indicate that the synthetic scenarios have greater potential to reduce the uncertainty of future climate projections and capture the spatial variability of extreme climate events.« less

Impacts of Model Bias on the Climate Change Signal and Effects of Weighted Ensembles of Regional Climate Model Simulations: A Case Study over Southern Québec, Canada

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Eum, Hyung-Il; Gachon, Philippe; Laprise, René

This study examined the impact of model biases on climate change signals for daily precipitation and for minimum and maximum temperatures. Through the use of multiple climate scenarios from 12 regional climate model simulations, the ensemble mean, and three synthetic simulations generated by a weighting procedure, we investigated intermodel seasonal climate change signals between current and future periods, for both median and extreme precipitation/temperature values. A significant dependence of seasonal climate change signals on the model biases over southern Québec in Canada was detected for temperatures, but not for precipitation. This suggests that the regional temperature change signal is affectedmore » by local processes. Seasonally, model bias affects future mean and extreme values in winter and summer. In addition, potentially large increases in future extremes of temperature and precipitation values were projected. For three synthetic scenarios, systematically less bias and a narrow range of mean change for all variables were projected compared to those of climate model simulations. In addition, synthetic scenarios were found to better capture the spatial variability of extreme cold temperatures than the ensemble mean scenario. Finally, these results indicate that the synthetic scenarios have greater potential to reduce the uncertainty of future climate projections and capture the spatial variability of extreme climate events.« less

Extreme-event geoelectric hazard maps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Love, J. J.; Bedrosian, P.

2017-12-01

Maps covering about half of the continental United States are presented of geoelectric field amplitude that will be exceeded, on average, once per century in response to extreme-intensity geomagnetic disturbance. These maps are constructed using an empirical parameterization of induction: convolving latitude-dependent statistical maps of extreme-value geomagnetic disturbance, obtained from decades of 1-minute magnetic observatory data, with local estimates of Earth-surface impedance, obtained at discrete geographic sites from magnetotelluric surveys. Geoelectric amplitudes are estimated for geomagnetic waveforms having 240-s (and 1200-s) sinusoidal period and amplitudes over 10 minutes (1-hr) that exceed a once-per-century threshold. As a result of the combination of geographic differences in geomagnetic variation and Earth-surface impedance, once-per-century geoelectric amplitudes span more than two orders of magnitude and are a highly granular function of location. Specifically: for north-south 240-s induction, once-per-century geoelectric amplitudes across large parts of the United States have a median value of 0.34 V/km; for east-west variation, they have a median value of 0.23 V/km. In Northern Minnesota, amplitudes exceed 14.00 V/km for north-south geomagnetic variation (23.34 V/km for east-west variation), while just over 100 km away, amplitudes are only 0.08 V/km (0.02 V/km). At some sites in the Northern Central United States, once-per-century geoelectric amplitudes exceed the 2 V/km realized in Quebec during the March 1989 storm. These hazard maps are incomplete over large parts of the United States, including major population centers in the southern United States, due to a lack of publically available impedance data.

A nonstationary analysis for the Northern Adriatic extreme sea levels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Masina, Marinella; Lamberti, Alberto

2013-09-01

The historical data from the Trieste, Venice, Porto Corsini, and Rimini tide gauges have been used to investigate the spatial and temporal changes in extreme high water levels in the Northern Adriatic. A detailed analysis of annual mean sea level evolution at the three longest operating stations shows a coherent behavior both on a regional and global scale. A slight increase in magnitude of extreme water elevations, after the removal of the regularized annual mean sea level necessary to eliminate the effect of local subsidence and sea level rise, is found at the Venice and Porto Corsini stations. It seems to be mainly associated with a wind regime change occurred in the 1990s, due to an intensification of Bora wind events after their decrease in frequency and intensity during the second half of the 20th century. The extreme values, adjusted for the annual mean sea level trend, are modeled using a time-dependent GEV distribution. The inclusion of seasonality in the GEV parameters considerably improves the data fitting. The interannual fluctuations of the detrended monthly maxima exhibit a significant correlation with the variability of the large-scale atmospheric circulation represented by the North Atlantic Oscillation and Arctic Oscillation indices. The different coast exposure to the Bora and Sirocco winds and their seasonal character explain the various seasonal patterns of extreme sea levels observed at the tide gauges considered in the present analysis.

High spatial resolution time-resolved magnetic resonance angiography of lower extremity tumors at 3T

PubMed Central

Wu, Gang; Jin, Teng; Li, Ting; Morelli, John; Li, Xiaoming

2016-01-01

Abstract The aim of this study was to compare diagnostic value of high spatial resolution time-resolved magnetic resonance angiography with interleaved stochastic trajectory (TWIST) using Gadobutrol to Computed tomography angiography (CTA) for preoperative evaluation of lower extremity tumors. This prospective study was approved by the institutional review board. Fifty consecutive patients (31 men, 19 women, age range 18–80 years, average age 42.7 years) with lower extremity tumors underwent TWIST magnetic resonance angiography (MRA) and CTA. Digital subtraction angiography was available for 8 patients. Image quality of MRA was compared with CTA by 2 radiologists according to a 4-point Likert scale. Arterial involvement by tumor was compared using kappa test between MRA and CTA. The ability to identify feeding arteries and arterio-venous fistulae (AVF) was compared using Wilcoxon signed rank test and McNemar test, respectively. Image quality of MRA and CTA was rated without a statistically significant difference (3.88 ± 0.37 vs. 3.97 ± 0.16, P = 0.135). Intramodality agreement was high for the identification of arterial invasion (kappa = 0.806 ± 0.073 for Reader 1, kappa = 0.805 ± 0.073 for Reader 2). Readers found AVF in 27 of 50 MRA cases and 14 of 50 CTA cases (P < 0.001). Mean feeding arteries identified with MRA were significantly more than that with CTA (2.08 ± 1.72 vs. 1.62 ± 1.52, P = .02). TWIST MRA is a reliable imaging modality for the assessment of lower extremity tumors. TWIST MRA is comparable to CTA for the identification of AVF and feeding arteries. PMID:27631262

Topographic relationships for design rainfalls over Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johnson, F.; Hutchinson, M. F.; The, C.; Beesley, C.; Green, J.

2016-02-01

Design rainfall statistics are the primary inputs used to assess flood risk across river catchments. These statistics normally take the form of Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves that are derived from extreme value probability distributions fitted to observed daily, and sub-daily, rainfall data. The design rainfall relationships are often required for catchments where there are limited rainfall records, particularly catchments in remote areas with high topographic relief and hence some form of interpolation is required to provide estimates in these areas. This paper assesses the topographic dependence of rainfall extremes by using elevation-dependent thin plate smoothing splines to interpolate the mean annual maximum rainfall, for periods from one to seven days, across Australia. The analyses confirm the important impact of topography in explaining the spatial patterns of these extreme rainfall statistics. Continent-wide residual and cross validation statistics are used to demonstrate the 100-fold impact of elevation in relation to horizontal coordinates in explaining the spatial patterns, consistent with previous rainfall scaling studies and observational evidence. The impact of the complexity of the fitted spline surfaces, as defined by the number of knots, and the impact of applying variance stabilising transformations to the data, were also assessed. It was found that a relatively large number of 3570 knots, suitably chosen from 8619 gauge locations, was required to minimise the summary error statistics. Square root and log data transformations were found to deliver marginally superior continent-wide cross validation statistics, in comparison to applying no data transformation, but detailed assessments of residuals in complex high rainfall regions with high topographic relief showed that no data transformation gave superior performance in these regions. These results are consistent with the understanding that in areas with modest topographic relief, as for most of the Australian continent, extreme rainfall is closely aligned with elevation, but in areas with high topographic relief the impacts of topography on rainfall extremes are more complex. The interpolated extreme rainfall statistics, using no data transformation, have been used by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology to produce new IDF data for the Australian continent. The comprehensive methods presented for the evaluation of gridded design rainfall statistics will be useful for similar studies, in particular the importance of balancing the need for a continentally-optimum solution that maintains sufficient definition at the local scale.

Efficiency and multifractality analysis of CSI 300 based on multifractal detrending moving average algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Weijie; Dang, Yaoguo; Gu, Rongbao

2013-03-01

We apply the multifractal detrending moving average (MFDMA) to investigate and compare the efficiency and multifractality of 5-min high-frequency China Securities Index 300 (CSI 300). The results show that the CSI 300 market becomes closer to weak-form efficiency after the introduction of CSI 300 future. We find that the CSI 300 is featured by multifractality and there are less complexity and risk after the CSI 300 index future was introduced. With the shuffling, surrogating and removing extreme values procedures, we unveil that extreme events and fat-distribution are the main origin of multifractality. Besides, we discuss the knotting phenomena in multifractality, and find that the scaling range and the irregular fluctuations for large scales in the Fq(s) vs s plot can cause a knot.

High Temperature, high pressure equation of state density correlations and viscosity correlations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tapriyal, D.; Enick, R.; McHugh, M.

2012-07-31

Global increase in oil demand and depleting reserves has derived a need to find new oil resources. To find these untapped reservoirs, oil companies are exploring various remote and harsh locations such as deep waters in Gulf of Mexico, remote arctic regions, unexplored deep deserts, etc. Further, the depth of new oil/gas wells being drilled has increased considerably to tap these new resources. With the increase in the well depth, the bottomhole temperature and pressure are also increasing to extreme values (i.e. up to 500 F and 35,000 psi). The density and viscosity of natural gas and crude oil atmore » reservoir conditions are critical fundamental properties required for accurate assessment of the amount of recoverable petroleum within a reservoir and the modeling of the flow of these fluids within the porous media. These properties are also used to design appropriate drilling and production equipment such as blow out preventers, risers, etc. With the present state of art, there is no accurate database for these fluid properties at extreme conditions. As we have begun to expand this experimental database it has become apparent that there are neither equations of state for density or transport models for viscosity that can be used to predict these fundamental properties of multi-component hydrocarbon mixtures over a wide range of temperature and pressure. Presently, oil companies are using correlations based on lower temperature and pressure databases that exhibit an unsatisfactory predictive capability at extreme conditions (e.g. as great as {+-} 50%). From the perspective of these oil companies that are committed to safely producing these resources, accurately predicting flow rates, and assuring the integrity of the flow, the absence of an extensive experimental database at extreme conditions and models capable of predicting these properties over an extremely wide range of temperature and pressure (including extreme conditions) makes their task even more daunting.« less

Extreme Mean and Its Applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Swaroop, R.; Brownlow, J. D.

1979-01-01

Extreme value statistics obtained from normally distributed data are considered. An extreme mean is defined as the mean of p-th probability truncated normal distribution. An unbiased estimate of this extreme mean and its large sample distribution are derived. The distribution of this estimate even for very large samples is found to be nonnormal. Further, as the sample size increases, the variance of the unbiased estimate converges to the Cramer-Rao lower bound. The computer program used to obtain the density and distribution functions of the standardized unbiased estimate, and the confidence intervals of the extreme mean for any data are included for ready application. An example is included to demonstrate the usefulness of extreme mean application.

FURTHER EVIDENCE ON THE “COSTS OF PRIVILEGE”: PERFECTIONISM IN HIGH-ACHIEVING YOUTH AT SOCIOECONOMIC EXTREMES

PubMed Central

LYMAN, EMILY L.; LUTHAR, SUNIYA S.

2015-01-01

This study involved two academically-gifted samples of 11th and 12th grade youth at the socioeconomic status (SES) extremes; one from an exclusive private, affluent school, and the other from a magnet school with low-income students. Negative and positive adjustment outcomes were examined in relation to multiple dimensions of perfectionism including perceived parental pressures to be perfect, personal perfectionistic self-presentation, and envy of peers. The low-income students showed some areas of relative vulnerability, but when large group differences were found, it was the affluent youth who were at a disadvantage, with substantially higher substance use and peer envy. Affluent girls seemed particularly vulnerable, with pronounced elevations in perfectionistic tendencies, peer envy, as well as body dissatisfaction. Examination of risk and protective processes showed that relationships with mothers were associated with students’ distress as well as positive adjustment. Additionally, findings showed links between (a) envy of peers and multiple outcomes (among high SES girls in particular), (b) dimensions of perfectionism in relation to internalizing symptoms, and (c) high extrinsic versus intrinsic values in relation to externalizing symptoms. PMID:26345229

Simulation-Based Extreme Value Marked Correlations in Fatigue of Advanced Engineering Alloys (PREPRINT)

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-04-01

000 the response of damage dependent processes like fatigue crack formation, a framework is needed that accounts for the extreme value life...many different damage processes (e.g. fatigue, creep, fracture). In this work, multiple material volumes for both IN100 and Ti-6Al-4V are simulated via...polycrystalline P/M Ni-base superalloy IN100 Typically, fatigue damage formation in polycrystalline superalloys has been linked to the existence of

The spatial distribution of threats to plant species with extremely small populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Chunjing; Zhang, Jing; Wan, Jizhong; Qu, Hong; Mu, Xianyun; Zhang, Zhixiang

2017-03-01

Many biological conservationists take actions to conserve plant species with extremely small populations (PSESP) in China; however, there have been few studies on the spatial distribution of threats to PSESP. Hence, we selected distribution data of PSESP and made a map of the spatial distribution of threats to PSESP in China. First, we used the weight assignment method to evaluate the threat risk to PSESP at both country and county scales. Second, we used a geographic information system to map the spatial distribution of threats to PSESP, and explored the threat factors based on linear regression analysis. Finally, we suggested some effective conservation options. We found that the PSESP with high values of protection, such as the plants with high scientific research values and ornamental plants, were threatened by over-exploitation and utilization, habitat fragmentation, and a small sized wild population in broad-leaved forests and bush fallows. We also identified some risk hotspots for PSESP in China. Regions with low elevation should be given priority for ex- and in-situ conservation. Moreover, climate change should be considered for conservation of PSESP. To avoid intensive over-exploitation or utilization and habitat fragmentation, in-situ conservation should be practiced in regions with high temperatures and low temperature seasonality, particularly in the high risk hotspots for PSESP that we proposed. Ex-situ conservation should be applied in these same regions, and over-exploitation and utilization of natural resources should be prevented. It is our goal to apply the concept of PSESP to the global scale in the future.

High hepatotoxic dose of paracetamol produces generalized convulsions and brain damage in rats. A counteraction with the stable gastric pentadecapeptide BPC 157 (PL 14736).

PubMed

Ilic, S; Drmic, D; Zarkovic, K; Kolenc, D; Coric, M; Brcic, L; Klicek, R; Radic, B; Sever, M; Djuzel, V; Ivica, M; Boban Blagaic, A; Zoricic, Z; Anic, T; Zoricic, I; Djidic, S; Romic, Z; Seiwerth, S; Sikiric, P

2010-04-01

We focused on stable gastric pentadecapeptide BPC 157 (GEPPPGKPADDAGLV, MW 1419, an anti-ulcer peptide efficient in inflammatory bowel disease trials (PL 14736), no toxicity reported) because of its hepatoprotective effects. We investigate a particular aspect of the sudden onset of encephalopathy with extreme paracetamol overdose (5 g/kg intraperitoneally) so far not reported: rapidly induced progressive hepatic encephalopathy with generalized convulsions in rats. BPC 157 therapy (10 microg, 10 ng, 10 pg/kg, intraperitoneally or intragastrically) was effective (microg-ng range) against paracetamol toxicity, given in early (BPC 157 immediately after paracetamol, prophylactically) or advanced stage (BPC 157 at 3 hours after paracetamol, therapeutically). At 25 min post-paracetamol increased ALT, AST and ammonium serum values precede liver lesion while in several brain areas, significant damage became apparent, accompanied by generalized convulsions. Through the next 5 hour seizure period and thereafter, the brain damage, liver damage enzyme values and hyperammonemia increased, particularly throughout the 3-24 h post-paracetamol period. BPC 157 demonstrated clinical (no convulsions (prophylactic application) or convulsions rapidly disappeared (therapeutic effect within 25 min)), microscopical (markedly less liver and brain lesions) and biochemical (enzyme and ammonium serum levels decreased) counteraction. Both, the prophylactic and therapeutic benefits (intraperitoneally and intragastrically) clearly imply BPC 157 (microg-ng range) as a highly effective paracetamol antidote even against highly advanced damaging processes induced by an extreme paracetamol over-dose.

Episode of intense chemical weathering during the termination of the 635 Ma Marinoan glaciation

PubMed Central

Huang, Kang-Jun; Teng, Fang-Zhen; Shen, Bing; Xiao, Shuhai; Lang, Xianguo; Ma, Hao-Ran; Fu, Yong; Peng, Yongbo

2016-01-01

Cryogenian (∼720–635 Ma) global glaciations (the snowball Earth) represent the most extreme ice ages in Earth’s history. The termination of these snowball Earth glaciations is marked by the global precipitation of cap carbonates, which are interpreted to have been driven by intense chemical weathering on continents. However, direct geochemical evidence for the intense chemical weathering in the aftermath of snowball glaciations is lacking. Here, we report Mg isotopic data from the terminal Cryogenian or Marinoan-age Nantuo Formation and the overlying cap carbonate of the basal Doushantuo Formation in South China. A positive excursion of extremely high δ26Mg values (+0.56 to +0.95)—indicative of an episode of intense chemical weathering—occurs in the top Nantuo Formation, whereas the siliciclastic component of the overlying Doushantuo cap carbonate has significantly lower δ26Mg values (<+0.40), suggesting moderate to low intensity of chemical weathering during cap carbonate deposition. These observations suggest that cap carbonate deposition postdates the climax of chemical weathering, probably because of the suppression of carbonate precipitation in an acidified ocean when atmospheric CO2 concentration was high. Cap carbonate deposition did not occur until chemical weathering had consumed substantial amounts of atmospheric CO2 and accumulated high levels of oceanic alkalinity. Our finding confirms intense chemical weathering at the onset of deglaciation but indicates that the maximum weathering predated cap carbonate deposition. PMID:27956606

Projected changes to short- and long-duration precipitation extremes over the Canadian Prairie Provinces

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Masud, M. B.; Khaliq, M. N.; Wheater, H. S.

2017-09-01

The effects of climate change on April-October short- and long-duration precipitation extremes over the Canadian Prairie Provinces were evaluated using a multi-Regional Climate Model (RCM) ensemble available through the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program. Simulations considered include those performed with six RCMs driven by the National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis II product for the 1981-2000 period and those driven by four Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs) for the current 1971-2000 and future 2041-2070 periods (i.e. a total of 11 current-to-future period simulation pairs). A regional frequency analysis approach was used to develop 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, and 50-year return values of precipitation extremes from NCEP and AOGCM-driven current and future period simulations that respectively were used to study the performance of RCMs and projected changes for selected return values at regional, grid-cell and local scales. Performance errors due to internal dynamics and physics of RCMs studied for the 1981-2000 period reveal considerable variation in the performance of the RCMs. However, the performance errors were found to be much smaller for RCM ensemble averages than for individual RCMs. Projected changes in future climate to selected regional return values of short-duration (e.g. 15- and 30-min) precipitation extremes and for longer return periods (e.g. 50-year) were found to be mostly larger than those to the longer duration (e.g. 24- and 48-h) extremes and short return periods (e.g. 2-year). Overall, projected changes in precipitation extremes were larger for southeastern regions followed by southern and northern regions and smaller for southwestern and western regions of the study area. The changes to return values were also found to be statistically significant for the majority of the RCM-AOGCM simulation pairs. These projections might be useful as a key input for the future planning of urban drainage infrastructure and development of strategic climate change adaptation measures.

Body size, composition, and blood pressure of high-altitude Quechua from the Peruvian Central Andes (Huancavelica, 3,680 m).

PubMed

Toselli, S; Tarazona-Santos, E; Pettener, D

2001-01-01

Although much information is available about the effects of high altitude on physiological characteristics, less is know about its effect on body composition. In the present study, anthropometric and body composition variables were investigated in a sample of 77 adult Quechua males from the Peruvian Central Andes (Huancavelica, 3,680 m). The subjects are shorter in relation to body weight than other ethnic groups, whereas body proportions are macrocormic (indicating a long trunk relative to the lower extremities), with intermediate values of the acromial-iliac index. All skinfold thicknesses are low (approximately 15th percentiles of NHANES reference values for the triceps and subscapular skinfolds), but tend to be higher than in the other Quechua populations. Similar results are obtained when percentage fat is estimated. Somatotypes are dominant in mesomorphy with very low ectomorphy. Comparison with a sample of high-altitude Kirghiz (3,200 m), previously studied with the same methods, shows higher values in the Peruvian sample for all variables related to adiposity. The presence of low adiposity in the Quechua population could be associated with stresses of the high-altitude environment. Mean values of blood pressure are very low and there is no correlation with age.

Analysis of extreme values of the economic efficiency indicators of transport infrastructure projects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Korytárová, J.; Vaňková, L.

2017-10-01

Paper builds on previous research of the authors into the evaluation of economic efficiency of transport infrastructure projects evaluated by the economic efficiency ratio - NPV, IRR and BCR. Values of indicators and subsequent outputs of the sensitivity analysis show extremely favourable values in some cases. The authors dealt with the analysis of these indicators down to the level of the input variables and examined which inputs have a larger share of these extreme values. NCF for the calculation of above mentioned ratios is created by benefits that arise as the difference between zero and investment options of the project (savings in travel and operating costs, savings in travel time costs, reduction in accident costs and savings in exogenous costs) as well as total agency costs. Savings in travel time costs which contribute to the overall utility of projects by more than 70% appear to be the most important benefits in the long term horizon. This is the reason why this benefit emphasized. The outcome of the article has resulted how the particular basic variables contributed to the total robustness of economic efficiency of these project.

Evaluation of NASA's MERRA Precipitation Product in Reproducing the Observed Trend and Distribution of Extreme Precipitation Events in the United States

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ashouri, Hamed; Sorooshian, Soroosh; Hsu, Kuo-Lin; Bosilovich, Michael G.; Lee, Jaechoul; Wehner, Michael F.; Collow, Allison

2016-01-01

This study evaluates the performance of NASA's Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) precipitation product in reproducing the trend and distribution of extreme precipitation events. Utilizing the extreme value theory, time-invariant and time-variant extreme value distributions are developed to model the trends and changes in the patterns of extreme precipitation events over the contiguous United States during 1979-2010. The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) U.S.Unified gridded observation data are used as the observational dataset. The CPC analysis shows that the eastern and western parts of the United States are experiencing positive and negative trends in annual maxima, respectively. The continental-scale patterns of change found in MERRA seem to reasonably mirror the observed patterns of change found in CPC. This is not previously expected, given the difficulty in constraining precipitation in reanalysis products. MERRA tends to overestimate the frequency at which the 99th percentile of precipitation is exceeded because this threshold tends to be lower in MERRA, making it easier to be exceeded. This feature is dominant during the summer months. MERRA tends to reproduce spatial patterns of the scale and location parameters of the generalized extreme value and generalized Pareto distributions. However, MERRA underestimates these parameters, particularly over the Gulf Coast states, leading to lower magnitudes in extreme precipitation events. Two issues in MERRA are identified: 1) MERRA shows a spurious negative trend in Nebraska and Kansas, which is most likely related to the changes in the satellite observing system over time that has apparently affected the water cycle in the central United States, and 2) the patterns of positive trend over the Gulf Coast states and along the East Coast seem to be correlated with the tropical cyclones in these regions. The analysis of the trends in the seasonal precipitation extremes indicates that the hurricane and winter seasons are contributing the most to these trend patterns in the southeastern United States. In addition, the increasing annual trend simulated by MERRA in the Gulf Coast region is due to an incorrect trend in winter precipitation extremes.

Evaluation of NASA’s MERRA Precipitation Product in Reproducing the Observed Trend and Distribution of Extreme Precipitation Events in the United States

DOE PAGES

Ashouri, Hamed; Sorooshian, Soroosh; Hsu, Kuo-Lin; ...

2016-02-03

This study evaluates the performance of NASA's Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) precipitation product in reproducing the trend and distribution of extreme precipitation events. Utilizing the extreme value theory, time-invariant and time-variant extreme value distributions are developed to model the trends and changes in the patterns of extreme precipitation events over the contiguous United States during 1979-2010. The Climate Prediction Center (CPC)U.S.Unified gridded observation data are used as the observational dataset. The CPC analysis shows that the eastern and western parts of the United States are experiencing positive and negative trends in annual maxima, respectively. The continental-scalemore » patterns of change found in MERRA seem to reasonably mirror the observed patterns of change found in CPC. This is not previously expected, given the difficulty in constraining precipitation in reanalysis products. MERRA tends to overestimate the frequency at which the 99th percentile of precipitation is exceeded because this threshold tends to be lower in MERRA, making it easier to be exceeded. This feature is dominant during the summer months. MERRAtends to reproduce spatial patterns of the scale and location parameters of the generalized extreme value and generalized Pareto distributions. However, MERRA underestimates these parameters, particularly over the Gulf Coast states, leading to lower magnitudes in extreme precipitation events. Two issues in MERRA are identified: 1)MERRAshows a spurious negative trend in Nebraska andKansas, which ismost likely related to the changes in the satellite observing system over time that has apparently affected the water cycle in the central United States, and 2) the patterns of positive trend over theGulf Coast states and along the East Coast seem to be correlated with the tropical cyclones in these regions. The analysis of the trends in the seasonal precipitation extremes indicates that the hurricane and winter seasons are contributing the most to these trend patterns in the southeastern United States. The increasing annual trend simulated by MERRA in the Gulf Coast region is due to an incorrect trend in winter precipitation extremes.« less

Flow and turbulence structure in a hypertidal estuary with the world's biggest tidal bore

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tu, Junbiao; Fan, Daidu

2017-04-01

Turbulent and flow structure associated with breaking tidal bores are deliberately investigated on the basis of field measurements. High-resolution velocity and hydrographic data are collected in the middle Qiantang Estuary by a vertical array of acoustic Doppler velocimeters and optical backscatter sensors, collaborated with a bottom-mounted acoustic Doppler current profiler. Besides obvious variations in diurnal and spring-neap tidal cycles, the estuarine dynamics is featured by extreme asymmetry in flood and ebb tides. The flood tide is abnormally accelerated to generate tidal bores at the first 10 min or more, with breaking or undular configurations at the front. The occurrence of peak flow velocity, turbulent kinetic energy (TKE), and TKE dissipation rate (ɛ) is definitely associated with breaking bores, with their values several times to 2 orders of magnitude larger than the corresponding secondary peak values during the maximum ebb flows. Flow and turbulence dynamics are significantly affected by the tidal-bore Froude number. A sandwich ɛ structure is clear exhibited with the maximum value at the surface, secondary maximum near the bed, and the minimum at the intermediate. Dual TKE sources are indicated by an approximate local balance between shear production and dissipation near the bottom, and a top-down TKE dissipation using the modified Froude scaling in the vertical water column. The highly elevated dissipation by breaking bores is comparable to that by intense breaking waves in the surf zone, and the former potentially penetrates the entire water column to produce extreme sediment-resuspension events in combination with intense bottom shear stress.

Weather Typing-Based Flood Frequency Analysis Verified for Exceptional Historical Events of Past 500 Years Along the Meuse River

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

De Niel, J.; Demarée, G.; Willems, P.

2017-10-01

Governments, policy makers, and water managers are pushed by recent socioeconomic developments such as population growth and increased urbanization inclusive of occupation of floodplains to impose very stringent regulations on the design of hydrological structures. These structures need to withstand storms with return periods typically ranging between 1,250 and 10,000 years. Such quantification involves extrapolations of systematically measured instrumental data, possibly complemented by quantitative and/or qualitative historical data and paleoflood data. The accuracy of the extrapolations is, however, highly unclear in practice. In order to evaluate extreme river peak flow extrapolation and accuracy, we studied historical and instrumental data of the past 500 years along the Meuse River. We moreover propose an alternative method for the estimation of the extreme value distribution of river peak flows, based on weather types derived by sea level pressure reconstructions. This approach results in a more accurate estimation of the tail of the distribution, where current methods are underestimating the design levels related to extreme high return periods. The design flood for a 1,250 year return period is estimated at 4,800 m3 s-1 for the proposed method, compared with 3,450 and 3,900 m3 s-1 for a traditional method and a previous study.

From tunable core-shell nanoparticles to plasmonic drawbridges: Active control of nanoparticle optical properties

PubMed Central

Byers, Chad P.; Zhang, Hui; Swearer, Dayne F.; Yorulmaz, Mustafa; Hoener, Benjamin S.; Huang, Da; Hoggard, Anneli; Chang, Wei-Shun; Mulvaney, Paul; Ringe, Emilie; Halas, Naomi J.; Nordlander, Peter; Link, Stephan; Landes, Christy F.

2015-01-01

The optical properties of metallic nanoparticles are highly sensitive to interparticle distance, giving rise to dramatic but frequently irreversible color changes. By electrochemical modification of individual nanoparticles and nanoparticle pairs, we induced equally dramatic, yet reversible, changes in their optical properties. We achieved plasmon tuning by oxidation-reduction chemistry of Ag-AgCl shells on the surfaces of both individual and strongly coupled Au nanoparticle pairs, resulting in extreme but reversible changes in scattering line shape. We demonstrated reversible formation of the charge transfer plasmon mode by switching between capacitive and conductive electronic coupling mechanisms. Dynamic single-particle spectroelectrochemistry also gave an insight into the reaction kinetics and evolution of the charge transfer plasmon mode in an electrochemically tunable structure. Our study represents a highly useful approach to the precise tuning of the morphology of narrow interparticle gaps and will be of value for controlling and activating a range of properties such as extreme plasmon modulation, nanoscopic plasmon switching, and subnanometer tunable gap applications. PMID:26665175

Novel high-strength biocomposites based on microfibrillated cellulose having nano-order-unit web-like network structure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nakagaito, A. N.; Yano, H.

2005-01-01

A completely new kind of high-strength composite was manufactured using microfibrillated cellulose (MFC) derived from kraft pulp. Because of the unique structure of nano-order-scale interconnected fibrils and microfibrils greatly expanded in the surface area that characterizes MFC, it was possible to produce composites that exploit the extremely high strength of microfibrils. The Young’s modulus (E) and bending strength (σb) of composites using phenolic resin as binder achieved values up to 19 GPa and 370 MPa, respectively, with a density of 1.45 g/cm2, exhibiting outstanding mechanical properties for a plant-fiber-based composite.

High average power scaleable thin-disk laser

DOEpatents

Beach, Raymond J.; Honea, Eric C.; Bibeau, Camille; Payne, Stephen A.; Powell, Howard; Krupke, William F.; Sutton, Steven B.

2002-01-01

Using a thin disk laser gain element with an undoped cap layer enables the scaling of lasers to extremely high average output power values. Ordinarily, the power scaling of such thin disk lasers is limited by the deleterious effects of amplified spontaneous emission. By using an undoped cap layer diffusion bonded to the thin disk, the onset of amplified spontaneous emission does not occur as readily as if no cap layer is used, and much larger transverse thin disks can be effectively used as laser gain elements. This invention can be used as a high average power laser for material processing applications as well as for weapon and air defense applications.

Comparison of visual acuity of the patients on the first day after sub-Bowman keratomileusis or laser in situ keratomileusis

PubMed Central

Zhao, Wei; Wu, Ting; Dong, Ze-Hong; Feng, Jie; Ren, Yu-Feng; Wang, Yu-Sheng

2016-01-01

AIM To compare recovery of the visual acuity in patients one day after sub-Bowman keratomileusis (SBK) or laser in situ keratomileusis (LASIK). METHODS Data from 5923 eyes in 2968 patients that received LASIK (2755 eyes) or SBK (3168 eyes) were retrospectively analyzed. The eyes were divided into 4 groups according to preoperative spherical equivalent: between -12.00 to -9.00 D, extremely high myopia (n=396, including 192 and 204 in SBK and LASIK groups, respectively); -9.00 to -6.00 D, high myopia (n=1822, including 991 and 831 in SBK and LASIK groups, respectively), -6.00 to -3.00 D, moderate myopia (n=3071, including 1658 and 1413 in SBK and LASIK groups, respectively), and -3.00 to 0.00 D, low myopia (n=634, including 327 and 307 in SBK and LASIK groups, respectively). Uncorrected logMAR visual acuity values of patients were assessed under standard natural light. Analysis of variance was used for comparisons among different groups. RESULTS Uncorrected visual acuity values were 0.0115±0.1051 and 0.0466±0.1477 at day 1 after operation for patients receiving SBK and LASIK, respectively (P<0.01); visual acuity values of 0.1854±0.1842, 0.0615±0.1326, -0.0033±0.0978, and -0.0164±0.0972 were obtained for patients in the extremely high, high, moderate, and low myopia groups, respectively (P<0.01). In addition, significant differences in visual acuity at day 1 after operation were found between patients receiving SBK and LASIK in each myopia subgroup. CONCLUSION Compared with LASIK, SBK is safer and more effective, with faster recovery. Therefore, SBK is more likely to be accepted by patients than LASIK for better uncorrected visual acuity the day following operation. PMID:27158619

A novel prediction approach for antimalarial activities of Trimethoprim, Pyrimethamine, and Cycloguanil analogues using extremely randomized trees.

PubMed

Nattee, Cholwich; Khamsemanan, Nirattaya; Lawtrakul, Luckhana; Toochinda, Pisanu; Hannongbua, Supa

2017-01-01

Malaria is still one of the most serious diseases in tropical regions. This is due in part to the high resistance against available drugs for the inhibition of parasites, Plasmodium, the cause of the disease. New potent compounds with high clinical utility are urgently needed. In this work, we created a novel model using a regression tree to study structure-activity relationships and predict the inhibition constant, K i of three different antimalarial analogues (Trimethoprim, Pyrimethamine, and Cycloguanil) based on their molecular descriptors. To the best of our knowledge, this work is the first attempt to study the structure-activity relationships of all three analogues combined. The most relevant descriptors and appropriate parameters of the regression tree are harvested using extremely randomized trees. These descriptors are water accessible surface area, Log of the aqueous solubility, total hydrophobic van der Waals surface area, and molecular refractivity. Out of all possible combinations of these selected parameters and descriptors, the tree with the strongest coefficient of determination is selected to be our prediction model. Predicted K i values from the proposed model show a strong coefficient of determination, R 2 =0.996, to experimental K i values. From the structure of the regression tree, compounds with high accessible surface area of all hydrophobic atoms (ASA_H) and low aqueous solubility of inhibitors (Log S) generally possess low K i values. Our prediction model can also be utilized as a screening test for new antimalarial drug compounds which may reduce the time and expenses for new drug development. New compounds with high predicted K i should be excluded from further drug development. It is also our inference that a threshold of ASA_H greater than 575.80 and Log S less than or equal to -4.36 is a sufficient condition for a new compound to possess a low K i . Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of dynamically downscaled extreme temperature using a spatially-aggregated generalized extreme value (GEV) model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, Jiali; Han, Yuefeng; Stein, Michael L.

2016-02-10

The Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model downscaling skill in extreme maximum daily temperature is evaluated by using the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution. While the GEV distribution has been used extensively in climatology and meteorology for estimating probabilities of extreme events, accurately estimating GEV parameters based on data from a single pixel can be difficult, even with fairly long data records. This work proposes a simple method assuming that the shape parameter, the most difficult of the three parameters to estimate, does not vary over a relatively large region. This approach is applied to evaluate 31-year WRF-downscaled extreme maximummore » temperature through comparison with North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) data. Uncertainty in GEV parameter estimates and the statistical significance in the differences of estimates between WRF and NARR are accounted for by conducting bootstrap resampling. Despite certain biases over parts of the United States, overall, WRF shows good agreement with NARR in the spatial pattern and magnitudes of GEV parameter estimates. Both WRF and NARR show a significant increase in extreme maximum temperature over the southern Great Plains and southeastern United States in January and over the western United States in July. The GEV model shows clear benefits from the regionally constant shape parameter assumption, for example, leading to estimates of the location and scale parameters of the model that show coherent spatial patterns.« less

On the distributions of annual and seasonal daily rainfall extremes in central Arizona and their spatial variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mascaro, Giuseppe

2018-04-01

This study uses daily rainfall records of a dense network of 240 gauges in central Arizona to gain insights on (i) the variability of the seasonal distributions of rainfall extremes; (ii) how the seasonal distributions affect the shape of the annual distribution; and (iii) the presence of spatial patterns and orographic control for these distributions. For this aim, recent methodological advancements in peak-over-threshold analysis and application of the Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) were used to assess the suitability of the GPD hypothesis and improve the estimation of its parameters, while limiting the effect of short sample sizes. The distribution of daily rainfall extremes was found to be heavy-tailed (i.e., GPD shape parameter ξ > 0) during the summer season, dominated by convective monsoonal thunderstorms. The exponential distribution (a special case of GPD with ξ = 0) was instead showed to be appropriate for modeling wintertime daily rainfall extremes, mainly caused by cold fronts transported by westerly flow. The annual distribution exhibited a mixed behavior, with lighter upper tails than those found in summer. A hybrid model mixing the two seasonal distributions was demonstrated capable of reproducing the annual distribution. Organized spatial patterns, mainly controlled by elevation, were observed for the GPD scale parameter, while ξ did not show any clear control of location or orography. The quantiles returned by the GPD were found to be very similar to those provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Atlas 14, which used the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution. Results of this work are useful to improve statistical modeling of daily rainfall extremes at high spatial resolution and provide diagnostic tools for assessing the ability of climate models to simulate extreme events.

Assessment of future variability in extreme precipitation and the potential effects on the wadi flow regime.

PubMed

Gunawardhana, Luminda Niroshana; Al-Rawas, Ghazi A; Kazama, So; Al-Najar, Khalid A

2015-10-01

The objective of this study is to investigate how the magnitude and occurrence of extreme precipitation events are affected by climate change and to predict the subsequent impacts on the wadi flow regime in the Al-Khod catchment area, Muscat, Oman. The tank model, a lumped-parameter rainfall-runoff model, was used to simulate the wadi flow. Precipitation extremes and their potential future changes were predicted using six-member ensembles of general circulation models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Yearly maxima of the daily precipitation and wadi flow for varying return periods were compared for observed and projected data by fitting the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution function. Flow duration curves (FDC) were developed and compared for the observed and projected wadi flows. The results indicate that extreme precipitation events consistently increase by the middle of the twenty-first century for all return periods (49-52%), but changes may become more profound by the end of the twenty-first century (81-101%). Consequently, the relative change in extreme wadi flow is greater than twofolds for all of the return periods in the late twenty-first century compared to the relative changes that occur in the mid-century period. Precipitation analysis further suggests that greater than 50% of the precipitation may be associated with extreme events in the future. The FDC analysis reveals that changes in low-to-moderate flows (Q60-Q90) may not be statistically significant, whereas increases in high flows (Q5) are statistically robust (20 and 25% for the mid- and late-century periods, respectively).

[Quantitative Evaluation of Metal Artifacts on CT Images on the Basis of Statistics of Extremes].

PubMed

Kitaguchi, Shigetoshi; Imai, Kuniharu; Ueda, Suguru; Hashimoto, Naomi; Hattori, Shouta; Saika, Takahiro; Ono, Yoshifumi

2016-05-01

It is well-known that metal artifacts have a harmful effect on the image quality of computed tomography (CT) images. However, the physical property remains still unknown. In this study, we investigated the relationship between metal artifacts and tube currents using statistics of extremes. A commercially available phantom for measuring CT dose index 160 mm in diameter was prepared and a brass rod 13 mm in diameter was placed at the centerline of the phantom. This phantom was used as a target object to evaluate metal artifacts and was scanned using an area detector CT scanner with various tube currents under a constant tube voltage of 120 kV. Sixty parallel line segments with a length of 100 pixels were placed to cross metal artifacts on CT images and the largest difference between two adjacent CT values in each of 60 CT value profiles of these line segments was employed as a feature variable for measuring metal artifacts; these feature variables were analyzed on the basis of extreme value theory. The CT value variation induced by metal artifacts was statistically characterized by Gumbel distribution, which was one of the extreme value distributions; namely, metal artifacts have the same statistical characteristic as streak artifacts. Therefore, Gumbel evaluation method makes it possible to analyze not only streak artifacts but also metal artifacts. Furthermore, the location parameter in Gumbel distribution was shown to be in inverse proportion to the square root of a tube current. This result suggested that metal artifacts have the same dose dependence as image noises.

Genomic analysis identified a potential novel molecular mechanism for high-altitude adaptation in sheep at the Himalayas.

PubMed

Gorkhali, Neena Amatya; Dong, Kunzhe; Yang, Min; Song, Shen; Kader, Adiljian; Shrestha, Bhola Shankar; He, Xiaohong; Zhao, Qianjun; Pu, Yabin; Li, Xiangchen; Kijas, James; Guan, Weijun; Han, Jianlin; Jiang, Lin; Ma, Yuehui

2016-07-22

Sheep has successfully adapted to the extreme high-altitude Himalayan region. To identify genes underlying such adaptation, we genotyped genome-wide single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) of four major sheep breeds living at different altitudes in Nepal and downloaded SNP array data from additional Asian and Middle East breeds. Using a di value-based genomic comparison between four high-altitude and eight lowland Asian breeds, we discovered the most differentiated variants at the locus of FGF-7 (Keratinocyte growth factor-7), which was previously reported as a good protective candidate for pulmonary injuries. We further found a SNP upstream of FGF-7 that appears to contribute to the divergence signature. First, the SNP occurred at an extremely conserved site. Second, the SNP showed an increasing allele frequency with the elevated altitude in Nepalese sheep. Third, the electrophoretic mobility shift assays (EMSA) analysis using human lung cancer cells revealed the allele-specific DNA-protein interactions. We thus hypothesized that FGF-7 gene potentially enhances lung function by regulating its expression level in high-altitude sheep through altering its binding of specific transcription factors. Especially, FGF-7 gene was not implicated in previous studies of other high-altitude species, suggesting a potential novel adaptive mechanism to high altitude in sheep at the Himalayas.

Assessing Regional Scale Variability in Extreme Value Statistics Under Altered Climate Scenarios

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Brunsell, Nathaniel; Mechem, David; Ma, Chunsheng

Recent studies have suggested that low-frequency modes of climate variability can significantly influence regional climate. The climatology associated with extreme events has been shown to be particularly sensitive. This has profound implications for droughts, heat waves, and food production. We propose to examine regional climate simulations conducted over the continental United States by applying a recently developed technique which combines wavelet multi–resolution analysis with information theory metrics. This research is motivated by two fundamental questions concerning the spatial and temporal structure of extreme events. These questions are 1) what temporal scales of the extreme value distributions are most sensitive tomore » alteration by low-frequency climate forcings and 2) what is the nature of the spatial structure of variation in these timescales? The primary objective is to assess to what extent information theory metrics can be useful in characterizing the nature of extreme weather phenomena. Specifically, we hypothesize that (1) changes in the nature of extreme events will impact the temporal probability density functions and that information theory metrics will be sensitive these changes and (2) via a wavelet multi–resolution analysis, we will be able to characterize the relative contribution of different timescales on the stochastic nature of extreme events. In order to address these hypotheses, we propose a unique combination of an established regional climate modeling approach and advanced statistical techniques to assess the effects of low-frequency modes on climate extremes over North America. The behavior of climate extremes in RCM simulations for the 20th century will be compared with statistics calculated from the United States Historical Climatology Network (USHCN) and simulations from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP). This effort will serve to establish the baseline behavior of climate extremes, the validity of an innovative multi–resolution information theory approach, and the ability of the RCM modeling framework to represent the low-frequency modulation of extreme climate events. Once the skill of the modeling and analysis methodology has been established, we will apply the same approach for the AR5 (IPCC Fifth Assessment Report) climate change scenarios in order to assess how climate extremes and the the influence of lowfrequency variability on climate extremes might vary under changing climate. The research specifically addresses the DOE focus area 2. Simulation of climate extremes under a changing climate. Specific results will include (1) a better understanding of the spatial and temporal structure of extreme events, (2) a thorough quantification of how extreme values are impacted by low-frequency climate teleconnections, (3) increased knowledge of current regional climate models ability to ascertain these influences, and (4) a detailed examination of the how the distribution of extreme events are likely to change under different climate change scenarios. In addition, this research will assess the ability of the innovative wavelet information theory approach to characterize extreme events. Any and all of these results will greatly enhance society’s ability to understand and mitigate the regional ramifications of future global climate change.« less

A regional strategy for ecological sustainability: A case study in Southwest China.

PubMed

Wu, Xue; Liu, Shiliang; Cheng, Fangyan; Hou, Xiaoyun; Zhang, Yueqiu; Dong, Shikui; Liu, Guohua

2018-03-01

Partitioning, a method considering environmental protection and development potential, is an effective way to provide regional management strategies to maintain ecological sustainability. In this study, we provide a large-scale regional division approach and present a strategy for Southwest China, which also has extremely high development potential because of the "Western development" policy. Based on the superposition of 15 factors, including species diversity, pattern restriction, agricultural potential, accessibility, urbanization potential, and topographical limitations, the environmental value and development benefit in the region were quantified spatially by weighting the sum of indicators within environmental and development categories. By comparing the scores with their respective median values, the study area was divided into four different strategy zones: Conserve zones (34.94%), Construction zones (32.95%), Conflict zones (16.96%), and Low-tension zones (15.16%). The Conflict zones in which environmental value and development benefit were both higher than the respective medians were separated further into the following 5 levels: Extreme conflict (36.20%), Serious conflict (28.07%), Moderate conflict (12.28%), Minor conflict (6.55%), and Slight conflict (16.91%). We found that 9.04% of nature reserves were in Conflict zones, and thus should be given more attention. This study provides a simple and feasible method for regional partitioning, as well as comprehensive support that weighs both the environmental value and development benefit for China's current Ecological Red Line and space planning and for regional management in similar situations. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

ENSO and hydrologic extremes in the western United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cayan, D.R.; Redmond, K.T.; Riddle, L.G.

1999-01-01

Frequency distributions of daily precipitation in winter and daily stream flow from late winter to early summer, at several hundred sites in the western United States, exhibit strong and systematic responses to the two phases of ENSO. Most of the stream flows considered are driven by snowmelt. The Southern Oscillation index (SOI) is used as the ENSO phase indicator. Both modest (median) and larger (90th percentile) events were considered. In years with negative SOI values (El Nino), days with high daily precipitation and stream flow are more frequent than average over the Southwest and less frequent over the Northwest. During years with positive SOI values (La Nina), a nearly opposite pattern is seen. A more pronounced increase is seen in the number of days exceeding climatological 90th percentile values than in the number exceeding climatological 50th percentile values, for both precipitation and stream flow. Stream flow responses to ENSO extremes are accentuated over precipitation responses. Evidence suggests that the mechanism for this amplification involves ENSO-phase differences in the persistence and duration of wet episodes, affecting the efficiency of the process by which precipitation is converted to runoff. The SOI leads the precipitation events by several months, and hydrologic lags (mostly through snowmelt) dealy the stream flow response by several more months. The combined 6-12 month predictive aspect of this relationship should be of significant benefit in responding to flood (or drought) risk and in improving overall water management in the western states.Frequency distributions of daily precipitation in winter and daily stream flow from late winter to early summer, at several hundred sites in the western United States, exhibit strong and systematic responses to the two phases of ENSO. Most of the stream flows considered are driven by snowmelt. The Southern Oscillation index (SOI) is used as the ENSO phase indicator. Both modest (median) and larger (90th percentile) events were considered. In years with negative SOI values (El Nino), days with high daily precipitation and stream flow are more frequent than average over the Southwest and less frequent over the Northwest. During years with positive SOI values (La Nina), a nearly opposite pattern is seen. A more pronounced increase is seen in the number of days exceeding climatological 90th percentile values than in the number exceeding climatological 50th percentile values, for both precipitation and stream flow. Stream flow responses to ENSO extremes are accentuated over precipitation responses. Evidence suggests that the mechanism for this amplification involves ENSO-phase differences in the persistence and duration of wet episodes, affecting the efficiency of the process by which precipitation is converted to runoff. The SOI leads the precipitation events by several months, and hydrologic lags (mostly through snowmelt) delay the stream flow response by several more months. The combined 6-12-month predictive aspect of this relationship should be of significant benefit in responding to flood (or drought) risk and in improving overall water management in the western states.

QSRA: a quality-value guided de novo short read assembler.

PubMed

Bryant, Douglas W; Wong, Weng-Keen; Mockler, Todd C

2009-02-24

New rapid high-throughput sequencing technologies have sparked the creation of a new class of assembler. Since all high-throughput sequencing platforms incorporate errors in their output, short-read assemblers must be designed to account for this error while utilizing all available data. We have designed and implemented an assembler, Quality-value guided Short Read Assembler, created to take advantage of quality-value scores as a further method of dealing with error. Compared to previous published algorithms, our assembler shows significant improvements not only in speed but also in output quality. QSRA generally produced the highest genomic coverage, while being faster than VCAKE. QSRA is extremely competitive in its longest contig and N50/N80 contig lengths, producing results of similar quality to those of EDENA and VELVET. QSRA provides a step closer to the goal of de novo assembly of complex genomes, improving upon the original VCAKE algorithm by not only drastically reducing runtimes but also increasing the viability of the assembly algorithm through further error handling capabilities.

Spatial distribution of precipitation extremes in Norway

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verpe Dyrrdal, Anita; Skaugen, Thomas; Lenkoski, Alex; Thorarinsdottir, Thordis; Stordal, Frode; Førland, Eirik J.

2015-04-01

Estimates of extreme precipitation, in terms of return levels, are crucial in planning and design of important infrastructure. Through two separate studies, we have examined the levels and spatial distribution of daily extreme precipitation over catchments in Norway, and hourly extreme precipitation in a point. The analyses were carried out through the development of two new methods for estimating extreme precipitation in Norway. For daily precipitation we fit the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution to areal time series from a gridded dataset, consisting of daily precipitation during the period 1957-today with a resolution of 1x1 km². This grid-based method is more objective and less manual and time-consuming compared to the existing method at MET Norway. In addition, estimates in ungauged catchments are easier to obtain, and the GEV approach includes a measure of uncertainty, which is a requirement in climate studies today. Further, we go into depth on the debated GEV shape parameter, which plays an important role for longer return periods. We show that it varies according to dominating precipitation types, having positive values in the southeast and negative values in the southwest. We also find indications that the degree of orographic enhancement might affect the shape parameter. For hourly precipitation, we estimate return levels on a 1x1 km² grid, by linking GEV distributions with latent Gaussian fields in a Bayesian hierarchical model (BHM). Generalized linear models on the GEV parameters, estimated from observations, are able to incorporate location-specific geographic and meteorological information and thereby accommodate these effects on extreme precipitation. Gaussian fields capture additional unexplained spatial heterogeneity and overcome the sparse grid on which observations are collected, while a Bayesian model averaging component directly assesses model uncertainty. We find that mean summer precipitation, mean summer temperature, latitude, longitude, mean annual precipitation and elevation are good covariate candidates for hourly precipitation in our model. Summer indices succeed because hourly precipitation extremes often occur during the convective season. The spatial distribution of hourly and daily precipitation differs in Norway. Daily precipitation extremes are larger along the southwestern coast, where large-scale frontal systems dominate during fall season and the mountain ridge generates strong orographic enhancement. The largest hourly precipitation extremes are mostly produced by intense convective showers during summer, and are thus found along the entire southern coast, including the Oslo-region.

New Material Transistor with Record-High Field-Effect Mobility among Wide-Band-Gap Semiconductors.

PubMed

Shih, Cheng Wei; Chin, Albert

2016-08-03

At an ultrathin 5 nm, we report a new high-mobility tin oxide (SnO2) metal-oxide-semiconductor field-effect transistor (MOSFET) exhibiting extremely high field-effect mobility values of 279 and 255 cm(2)/V-s at 145 and 205 °C, respectively. These values are the highest reported mobility values among all wide-band-gap semiconductors of GaN, SiC, and metal-oxide MOSFETs, and they also exceed those of silicon devices at the aforementioned elevated temperatures. For the first time among existing semiconductor transistors, a new device physical phenomenon of a higher mobility value was measured at 45-205 °C than at 25 °C, which is due to the lower optical phonon scattering by the large SnO2 phonon energy. Moreover, the high on-current/off-current of 4 × 10(6) and the positive threshold voltage of 0.14 V at 25 °C are significantly better than those of a graphene transistor. This wide-band-gap SnO2 MOSFET exhibits high mobility in a 25-205 °C temperature range, a wide operating voltage of 1.5-20 V, and the ability to form on an amorphous substrate, rendering it an ideal candidate for multifunctional low-power integrated circuit (IC), display, and brain-mimicking three-dimensional IC applications.

An Extreme-Value Approach to Anomaly Vulnerability Identification

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Everett, Chris; Maggio, Gaspare; Groen, Frank

2010-01-01

The objective of this paper is to present a method for importance analysis in parametric probabilistic modeling where the result of interest is the identification of potential engineering vulnerabilities associated with postulated anomalies in system behavior. In the context of Accident Precursor Analysis (APA), under which this method has been developed, these vulnerabilities, designated as anomaly vulnerabilities, are conditions that produce high risk in the presence of anomalous system behavior. The method defines a parameter-specific Parameter Vulnerability Importance measure (PVI), which identifies anomaly risk-model parameter values that indicate the potential presence of anomaly vulnerabilities, and allows them to be prioritized for further investigation. This entails analyzing each uncertain risk-model parameter over its credible range of values to determine where it produces the maximum risk. A parameter that produces high system risk for a particular range of values suggests that the system is vulnerable to the modeled anomalous conditions, if indeed the true parameter value lies in that range. Thus, PVI analysis provides a means of identifying and prioritizing anomaly-related engineering issues that at the very least warrant improved understanding to reduce uncertainty, such that true vulnerabilities may be identified and proper corrective actions taken.

Sensitivity, Specificity, and Predictive Values: Foundations, Pliabilities, and Pitfalls in Research and Practice.

PubMed

Trevethan, Robert

2017-01-01

Within the context of screening tests, it is important to avoid misconceptions about sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values. In this article, therefore, foundations are first established concerning these metrics along with the first of several aspects of pliability that should be recognized in relation to those metrics. Clarification is then provided about the definitions of sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values and why researchers and clinicians can misunderstand and misrepresent them. Arguments are made that sensitivity and specificity should usually be applied only in the context of describing a screening test's attributes relative to a reference standard; that predictive values are more appropriate and informative in actual screening contexts, but that sensitivity and specificity can be used for screening decisions about individual people if they are extremely high; that predictive values need not always be high and might be used to advantage by adjusting the sensitivity and specificity of screening tests; that, in screening contexts, researchers should provide information about all four metrics and how they were derived; and that, where necessary, consumers of health research should have the skills to interpret those metrics effectively for maximum benefit to clients and the healthcare system.

Sensitivity, Specificity, and Predictive Values: Foundations, Pliabilities, and Pitfalls in Research and Practice

PubMed Central

Trevethan, Robert

2017-01-01

Within the context of screening tests, it is important to avoid misconceptions about sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values. In this article, therefore, foundations are first established concerning these metrics along with the first of several aspects of pliability that should be recognized in relation to those metrics. Clarification is then provided about the definitions of sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values and why researchers and clinicians can misunderstand and misrepresent them. Arguments are made that sensitivity and specificity should usually be applied only in the context of describing a screening test’s attributes relative to a reference standard; that predictive values are more appropriate and informative in actual screening contexts, but that sensitivity and specificity can be used for screening decisions about individual people if they are extremely high; that predictive values need not always be high and might be used to advantage by adjusting the sensitivity and specificity of screening tests; that, in screening contexts, researchers should provide information about all four metrics and how they were derived; and that, where necessary, consumers of health research should have the skills to interpret those metrics effectively for maximum benefit to clients and the healthcare system. PMID:29209603

Combination of radar and daily precipitation data to estimate meaningful sub-daily point precipitation extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pegram, Geoff; Bardossy, Andras; Sinclair, Scott

2017-04-01

The use of radar measurements for the space time estimation of precipitation has for many decades been a central topic in hydro-meteorology. In this presentation we are interested specifically in daily and sub-daily extreme values of precipitation at gauged or ungauged locations which are important for design. The purpose of the presentation is to develop a methodology to combine daily precipitation observations and radar measurements to estimate sub-daily extremes at point locations. Radar data corrected using precipitation-reflectivity relationships lead to biased estimations of extremes. Different possibilities of correcting systematic errors using the daily observations are investigated. Observed gauged daily amounts are interpolated to un-sampled points and subsequently disaggregated using the sub-daily values obtained by the radar. Different corrections based on the spatial variability and the sub-daily entropy of scaled rainfall distributions are used to provide unbiased corrections of short duration extremes. In addition, a statistical procedure not based on a matching day by day correction is tested. In this last procedure, as we are only interested in rare extremes, low to medium values of rainfall depth were neglected leaving 12 days of ranked daily maxima in each set per year, whose sum typically comprises about 50% of each annual rainfall total. The sum of these 12 day maxima is first interpolated using a Kriging procedure. Subsequently this sum is disaggregated to daily values using a nearest neighbour procedure. The daily sums are then disaggregated by using the relative values of the biggest 12 radar based days in each year. Of course, the timings of radar and gauge maxima can be different, so the new method presented here uses radar for disaggregating daily gauge totals down to 15 min intervals in order to extract the maxima of sub-hourly through to daily rainfall. The methodologies were tested in South Africa, where an S-band radar operated relatively continuously at Bethlehem from 1998 to 2003, whose scan at 1.5 km above ground [CAPPI] overlapped a dense [10 km spacing] set of 45 pluviometers recording in the same 6-year period. This valuable set of data was obtained from each of 37 selected radar pixels [1 km square in plan] which contained a pluviometer, not masked out by the radar foot-print. The pluviometer data were also aggregated to daily totals, for the same purpose. The extremes obtained using disaggregation methods were compared to the observed extremes in a cross validation procedure. The unusual and novel goal was not to obtain the reproduction of the precipitation matching in space and time, but to obtain frequency distributions of the point extremes, which we found to be stable. Published as: Bárdossy, A., and G. G. S. Pegram (2017) Journal of Hydrology, Volume 544, pp 397-406

Ethical research as the target of animal extremism: an international problem.

PubMed

Conn, P Michael; Rantin, F T

2010-02-01

Animal extremism has been increasing worldwide; frequently researchers are the targets of actions by groups with extreme animal rights agendas. Sometimes this targeting is violent and may involve assaults on family members or destruction of property. In this article, we summarize recent events and suggest steps that researchers can take to educate the public on the value of animal research both for people and animals.

Evolution of biological sequences implies an extreme value distribution of type I for both global and local pairwise alignment scores.

PubMed

Bastien, Olivier; Maréchal, Eric

2008-08-07

Confidence in pairwise alignments of biological sequences, obtained by various methods such as Blast or Smith-Waterman, is critical for automatic analyses of genomic data. Two statistical models have been proposed. In the asymptotic limit of long sequences, the Karlin-Altschul model is based on the computation of a P-value, assuming that the number of high scoring matching regions above a threshold is Poisson distributed. Alternatively, the Lipman-Pearson model is based on the computation of a Z-value from a random score distribution obtained by a Monte-Carlo simulation. Z-values allow the deduction of an upper bound of the P-value (1/Z-value2) following the TULIP theorem. Simulations of Z-value distribution is known to fit with a Gumbel law. This remarkable property was not demonstrated and had no obvious biological support. We built a model of evolution of sequences based on aging, as meant in Reliability Theory, using the fact that the amount of information shared between an initial sequence and the sequences in its lineage (i.e., mutual information in Information Theory) is a decreasing function of time. This quantity is simply measured by a sequence alignment score. In systems aging, the failure rate is related to the systems longevity. The system can be a machine with structured components, or a living entity or population. "Reliability" refers to the ability to operate properly according to a standard. Here, the "reliability" of a sequence refers to the ability to conserve a sufficient functional level at the folded and maturated protein level (positive selection pressure). Homologous sequences were considered as systems 1) having a high redundancy of information reflected by the magnitude of their alignment scores, 2) which components are the amino acids that can independently be damaged by random DNA mutations. From these assumptions, we deduced that information shared at each amino acid position evolved with a constant rate, corresponding to the information hazard rate, and that pairwise sequence alignment scores should follow a Gumbel distribution, which parameters could find some theoretical rationale. In particular, one parameter corresponds to the information hazard rate. Extreme value distribution of alignment scores, assessed from high scoring segments pairs following the Karlin-Altschul model, can also be deduced from the Reliability Theory applied to molecular sequences. It reflects the redundancy of information between homologous sequences, under functional conservative pressure. This model also provides a link between concepts of biological sequence analysis and of systems biology.

New digital capacitive measurement system for blade clearances

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moenich, Marcel; Bailleul, Gilles

This paper presents a totally new concept for tip blade clearance evaluation in turbine engines. This system is able to detect exact 'measurands' even under high temperature and severe conditions like ionization. The system is based on a heavy duty probe head, a miniaturized thick-film hybrid electronic circuit and a signal processing unit for real time computing. The high frequency individual measurement values are digitally filtered and linearized in real time. The electronic is built in hybrid technology and therefore can be kept extremely small and robust, so that the system can be used on actual flights.

Preparation of high porosity xerogels by chemical surface modification.

DOEpatents

Deshpande, Ravindra; Smith, Douglas M.; Brinker, C. Jeffrey

1996-01-01

This invention provides an extremely porous xerogel dried at vacuum-to-below supercritical pressures but having the properties of aerogels which are typically dried at supercritical pressures. This is done by reacting the internal pore surface of the wet gel with organic substances in order to change the contact angle of the fluid meniscus in the pores during drying. Shrinkage of the gel (which is normally prevented by use of high autoclave pressures, such that the pore fluid is at temperature and pressure above its critical values) is avoided even at vacuum or ambient pressures.

The Logic of Values Clarification

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kazepides, A. C.

1977-01-01

Traces the origin of the Values Clarification movement in education in Carl Roger's clien-centered therapy and exposes its unwarranted extreme ethical stance. Examines a model episode of values clarification and shows how the theoretical confusions of the Values Clarification proponents are reflected in their actual teaching strategies. (Editor/RK)

The Diagnostic Value of 3-Dimensional Sampling Perfection With Application Optimized Contrasts Using Different Flip Angle Evolutions (SPACE) MRI in Evaluating Lower Extremity Deep Venous Thrombus.

PubMed

Wu, Gang; Xie, Ruyi; Zhang, Xiaoli; Morelli, John; Yan, Xu; Zhu, Xiaolei; Li, Xiaoming

2017-12-01

The aim of this study was to evaluate the diagnostic performance of noncontrast magnetic resonance imaging utilizing sampling perfection with application optimized contrasts using different flip angle evolutions (SPACE) in detecting deep venous thrombus (DVT) of the lower extremity and evaluating clot burden. This prospective study was approved by the institutional review board. Ninety-four consecutive patients (42 men, 52 women; age range, 14-87 years; average age, 52.7 years) suspected of lower extremity DVT underwent ultrasound (US) and SPACE. The venous visualization score for SPACE was determined by 2 radiologists independently according to a 4-point scale (1-4, poor to excellent). The sensitivity and specificity of SPACE in detecting DVT were calculated based on segment, limb, and patient, with US serving as the reference standard. The clot burden for each segment was scored (0-3, patent to entire segment occlusion). The clot burden score obtained with SPACE was compared with US using a Wilcoxon test based on region, limb, and patient. Interobserver agreement in assessing DVT (absent, nonocclusive, or occlusive) with SPACE was determined by calculating Cohen kappa coefficients. The mean venous visualization score for SPACE was 3.82 ± 0.50 for reader 1 and 3.81 ± 0.50 for reader 2. For reader 1, sensitivity/specificity values of SPACE in detecting DVT were 96.53%/99.90% (segment), 95.24%/99.04% (limb), and 95.89%/95.24% (patient). For reader 2, corresponding values were 97.20%/99.90%, 96.39%/99.05%, and 97.22%/95.45%. The clot burden assessed with SPACE was not significantly different from US (P > 0.05 for region, limb, patient). Interobserver agreement of SPACE in assessing thrombosis was excellent (kappa = 0.894 ± 0.014). Non-contrast-enhanced 3-dimensional SPACE magnetic resonance imaging is highly accurate in detecting lower extremity DVT and reliable in the evaluation of clot burden. SPACE could serve as an important alternative for patients in whom US cannot be performed.

Projections of extreme storm surge levels along Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vousdoukas, Michalis I.; Voukouvalas, Evangelos; Annunziato, Alessandro; Giardino, Alessio; Feyen, Luc

2016-11-01

Storm surges are an important coastal hazard component and it is unknown how they will evolve along Europe's coastline in view of climate change. In the present contribution, the hydrodynamic model Delft3D-Flow was forced by surface wind and atmospheric pressure fields from a 8-member climate model ensemble in order to evaluate dynamics in storm surge levels (SSL) along the European coastline (1) for the baseline period 1970-2000; and (2) during this century under the Representative Concentration Pathways RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Validation simulations, spanning from 2008 to 2014 and driven by ERA-Interim atmospheric forcing, indicated good predictive skill (0.06 m < RMSE < 0.29 m and 10 % < RMSE < 29 % for 110 tidal gauge stations across Europe). Peak-over-threshold extreme value analysis was applied to estimate SSL values for different return periods, and changes of future SSL were obtained from all models to obtain the final ensemble. Values for most scenarios and return periods indicate a projected increase in SSL at several locations along the North European coastline, which is more prominent for RCP8.5 and shows an increasing tendency towards the end of the century for both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Projected SSL changes along the European coastal areas south of 50°N show minimal change or even a small decrease, with the exception of RCP8.5 under which a moderate increase is projected towards the end of the century. The present findings indicate that the anticipated increase in extreme total water levels due to relative sea level rise (RSLR), can be further enforced by an increase of the extreme SSL, which can exceed 30 % of the RSLR, especially for the high return periods and pathway RCP8.5. This implies that the combined effect could increase even further anticipated impacts of climate change for certain European areas and highlights the necessity for timely coastal adaptation and protection measures. The dataset is publicly available under this link: http://data.jrc.ec.europa.eu/collection/LISCOAST.

The effects of temperature and salinity on phosphate levels in two euryhaline crustacean species

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spaargaren, D. H.; Richard, P.; Ceccaldi, H. J.

Total phoshate, inorganic phosphate and organic (phospholipid) phosphate concentrations were determined in the blood of Carcinus maenas and in whole-animal homogenates of Penaeus japonicus acclimatized to various salinities and a high or a low temperature. In the blood of Carcinus, total and inorganic P concentrations range between 1.0 and 4.5 mmol · l -1; the amount of phospholipids is negligeable. The higher values were found at more extreme salinities. Low temperature is associated with low phosphate concentrations, particularly at intermediate salinities. Total P concentrations in Penaeus homogenates range between 10 and 60 mmol · 1 -1; phospholipid concentrations range between zero and 50 mmol · 1 -1. The higher values are again found at the extreme salinities. Inorganic P concentrations are almost constant — ca 10 mmol · 1 -1. No apparent effect of temperature on phosphate concentrations was observed. The results show clearly that osmotic stress influences severely the phosphate metabolism of the two species studied. Both species are able to accumulate phosphate at all experimental temperature/salinity combinations used, even when deprived of food. At extreme salinities, large quantities of phosphate are accumulated and converted to organic P compounds, most likely as phospholipids associated with the cell membranes. These effects of osmotic conditions in phosphate metabolism may offer an explanation for the effect of Ca ++ on membrane permeability as the regulation of both ions may be strongly interrelated, often under hormonal control.

An investigation into the vector ellipticity of extremely low frequency magnetic fields from appliances in UK homes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ainsbury, Elizabeth A.; Conein, Emma; Henshaw, Denis L.

2005-07-01

Elliptically polarized magnetic fields induce higher currents in the body compared with their plane polarized counterparts. This investigation examines the degree of vector ellipticity of extremely low frequency magnetic fields (ELF-MFs) in the home, with regard to the adverse health effects reportedly associated with ELF-MFs, for instance childhood leukaemia. Tri-axial measurements of the magnitude and phase of the 0-3000 Hz magnetic fields, produced by 226 domestic mains-fed appliances of 32 different types, were carried out in 16 homes in Worcestershire in the summer of 2004. Magnetic field strengths were low, with average (RMS) values of 0.03 ± 0.02 µT across all residences. In contrast, background field ellipticities were high, on average 47 ± 11%. Microwave and electric ovens produced the highest ellipticities: mean respective values of 21 ± 21% and 21 ± 17% were observed 20 cm away from these appliances. There was a negative correlation between field strength and field polarization, which we attribute to the higher relative field contribution close to each individual (single-phase) appliance. The measurements demonstrate that domestic magnetic fields are extremely complex and cannot simply be characterized by traditional measurements such as time-weighted average or peak exposure levels. We conclude that ellipticity should become a relevant metric for future epidemiological studies of health and ELF-MF exposure. This work is supported by the charity CHILDREN with LEUKAEMIA, registered charity number 298405.

Assessing the Implications of Changing Extreme Value Distributions of Weather on Carbon and Water Cycling in Grasslands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brunsell, N. A.; Nippert, J. B.

2011-12-01

As the climate warms, it is generally acknowledged that the number and magnitude of extreme weather events will increase. We examined an ecophysiological model's responses to precipitation and temperature anomalies in relation to the mean and variance of annual precipitation along a pronounced precipitation gradient from eastern to western Kansas. This natural gradient creates a template of potential responses for both the mean and variance of annual precipitation to compare the timescales of carbon and water fluxes. Using data from several Ameriflux sites (KZU and KFS) and a third eddy covariance tower (K4B) along the gradient, BIOME-BGC was used to characterize water and carbon cycle responses to extreme weather events. Changes in the extreme value distributions were based on SRES A1B and A2 scenarios using an ensemble mean of 21 GCMs for the region, downscaled using a stochastic weather generator. We focused on changing the timing and magnitude of precipitation and altering the diurnal and seasonal temperature ranges. Biome-BGC was then forced with daily output from the stochastic weather generator, and we examined how potential changes in these extreme value distributions impact carbon and water cycling at the sites across the Kansas precipitation gradient at time scales ranging from daily to interannual. To decompose the time scales of response, we applied a wavelet based information theory analysis approach. Results indicate impacts in soil moisture memory and carbon allocation processes, which vary in response to both the mean and variance of precipitation along the precipitation gradient. These results suggest a more pronounced focus ecosystem responses to extreme events across a range of temporal scales in order to fully characterize the water and carbon cycle responses to global climate change.

Exact extreme-value statistics at mixed-order transitions.

PubMed

Bar, Amir; Majumdar, Satya N; Schehr, Grégory; Mukamel, David

2016-05-01

We study extreme-value statistics for spatially extended models exhibiting mixed-order phase transitions (MOT). These are phase transitions that exhibit features common to both first-order (discontinuity of the order parameter) and second-order (diverging correlation length) transitions. We consider here the truncated inverse distance squared Ising model, which is a prototypical model exhibiting MOT, and study analytically the extreme-value statistics of the domain lengths The lengths of the domains are identically distributed random variables except for the global constraint that their sum equals the total system size L. In addition, the number of such domains is also a fluctuating variable, and not fixed. In the paramagnetic phase, we show that the distribution of the largest domain length l_{max} converges, in the large L limit, to a Gumbel distribution. However, at the critical point (for a certain range of parameters) and in the ferromagnetic phase, we show that the fluctuations of l_{max} are governed by novel distributions, which we compute exactly. Our main analytical results are verified by numerical simulations.

A Non-Stationary Approach for Estimating Future Hydroclimatic Extremes Using Monte-Carlo Simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Byun, K.; Hamlet, A. F.

2017-12-01

There is substantial evidence that observed hydrologic extremes (e.g. floods, extreme stormwater events, and low flows) are changing and that climate change will continue to alter the probability distributions of hydrologic extremes over time. These non-stationary risks imply that conventional approaches for designing hydrologic infrastructure (or making other climate-sensitive decisions) based on retrospective analysis and stationary statistics will become increasingly problematic through time. To develop a framework for assessing risks in a non-stationary environment our study develops a new approach using a super ensemble of simulated hydrologic extremes based on Monte Carlo (MC) methods. Specifically, using statistically downscaled future GCM projections from the CMIP5 archive (using the Hybrid Delta (HD) method), we extract daily precipitation (P) and temperature (T) at 1/16 degree resolution based on a group of moving 30-yr windows within a given design lifespan (e.g. 10, 25, 50-yr). Using these T and P scenarios we simulate daily streamflow using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model for each year of the design lifespan and fit a Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) probability distribution to the simulated annual extremes. MC experiments are then used to construct a random series of 10,000 realizations of the design lifespan, estimating annual extremes using the estimated unique GEV parameters for each individual year of the design lifespan. Our preliminary results for two watersheds in Midwest show that there are considerable differences in the extreme values for a given percentile between conventional MC and non-stationary MC approach. Design standards based on our non-stationary approach are also directly dependent on the design lifespan of infrastructure, a sensitivity which is notably absent from conventional approaches based on retrospective analysis. The experimental approach can be applied to a wide range of hydroclimatic variables of interest.

Spatial variability of extreme rainfall at radar subpixel scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peleg, Nadav; Marra, Francesco; Fatichi, Simone; Paschalis, Athanasios; Molnar, Peter; Burlando, Paolo

2018-01-01

Extreme rainfall is quantified in engineering practice using Intensity-Duration-Frequency curves (IDF) that are traditionally derived from rain-gauges and more recently also from remote sensing instruments, such as weather radars. These instruments measure rainfall at different spatial scales: rain-gauge samples rainfall at the point scale while weather radar averages precipitation on a relatively large area, generally around 1 km2. As such, a radar derived IDF curve is representative of the mean areal rainfall over a given radar pixel and neglects the within-pixel rainfall variability. In this study, we quantify subpixel variability of extreme rainfall by using a novel space-time rainfall generator (STREAP model) that downscales in space the rainfall within a given radar pixel. The study was conducted using a unique radar data record (23 years) and a very dense rain-gauge network in the Eastern Mediterranean area (northern Israel). Radar-IDF curves, together with an ensemble of point-based IDF curves representing the radar subpixel extreme rainfall variability, were developed fitting Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distributions to annual rainfall maxima. It was found that the mean areal extreme rainfall derived from the radar underestimate most of the extreme values computed for point locations within the radar pixel (on average, ∼70%). The subpixel variability of rainfall extreme was found to increase with longer return periods and shorter durations (e.g. from a maximum variability of 10% for a return period of 2 years and a duration of 4 h to 30% for 50 years return period and 20 min duration). For the longer return periods, a considerable enhancement of extreme rainfall variability was found when stochastic (natural) climate variability was taken into account. Bounding the range of the subpixel extreme rainfall derived from radar-IDF can be of major importance for different applications that require very local estimates of rainfall extremes.

Capturing spatial and temporal patterns of widespread, extreme flooding across Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Busby, Kathryn; Raven, Emma; Liu, Ye

2013-04-01

Statistical characterisation of physical hazards is an integral part of probabilistic catastrophe models used by the reinsurance industry to estimate losses from large scale events. Extreme flood events are not restricted by country boundaries which poses an issue for reinsurance companies as their exposures often extend beyond them. We discuss challenges and solutions that allow us to appropriately capture the spatial and temporal dependence of extreme hydrological events on a continental-scale, which in turn enables us to generate an industry-standard stochastic event set for estimating financial losses for widespread flooding. By presenting our event set methodology, we focus on explaining how extreme value theory (EVT) and dependence modelling are used to account for short, inconsistent hydrological data from different countries, and how to make appropriate statistical decisions that best characterise the nature of flooding across Europe. The consistency of input data is of vital importance when identifying historical flood patterns. Collating data from numerous sources inherently causes inconsistencies and we demonstrate our robust approach to assessing the data and refining it to compile a single consistent dataset. This dataset is then extrapolated using a parameterised EVT distribution to estimate extremes. Our method then captures the dependence of flood events across countries using an advanced multivariate extreme value model. Throughout, important statistical decisions are explored including: (1) distribution choice; (2) the threshold to apply for extracting extreme data points; (3) a regional analysis; (4) the definition of a flood event, which is often linked with reinsurance industry's hour's clause; and (5) handling of missing values. Finally, having modelled the historical patterns of flooding across Europe, we sample from this model to generate our stochastic event set comprising of thousands of events over thousands of years. We then briefly illustrate how this is applied within a probabilistic model to estimate catastrophic loss curves used by the reinsurance industry.

Investigation of Changes in Extreme Temperature and Humidity Over China Through a Dynamical Downscaling Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Jinxin; Huang, Gordon; Wang, Xiuquan; Cheng, Guanhui

2017-11-01

Impacts of climate change relating to public health are often determined by multiple climate variables. The health-related metrics combining high-temperature and relative humidity are most concerned. Temperatures, relative humidity and relationship among them are investigated here for a comprehensive assessment of climate change impacts over China. A projection of combined temperatures and humidity through the PRECIS model is addressed. The PRECIS model's skill in reproducing the historical climate over China was first gauged through validating its historical simulation with the observation data set in terms of the two contributing variables. With good results of validation, a plausible range of combined temperatures and relative humidity were generated under RCPs. The results suggested that the annual mean temperature of China will increase up to 6°C at the end of 21st century. Opposite to the significantly change in the temperature, the maximum magnitude of changes in relative humidity is only 8% from the value in the baseline period. The dew point temperature is projected to be 14.9°C (within the comfortable interval) over the whole nation under high radiative forcing scenario at the end of this century. Therefore, the combination effects of high temperatures and relative humidity are substantially smaller than generally anticipated for China. Even though the impact-relevant metric like the dew point temperature is not projected as bad as the generally anticipated, we found that the frequency of high-temperature extremes increases up to 40% and the duration increases up to 150% in China. China is still expected to have more number of extremely hot days, more frequent high-temperature extremes, and longer duration of warm spell than before. Regionally, South China has the smallest changes in the mean, maximum and minimum temperatures while the largest increases in all five high-temperature indices. Consequently, the climate over South China for two future periods will be changing more drastically than the baseline period. Extra cautions need to be given to South China in the future.

Calculating p-values and their significances with the Energy Test for large datasets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barter, W.; Burr, C.; Parkes, C.

2018-04-01

The energy test method is a multi-dimensional test of whether two samples are consistent with arising from the same underlying population, through the calculation of a single test statistic (called the T-value). The method has recently been used in particle physics to search for samples that differ due to CP violation. The generalised extreme value function has previously been used to describe the distribution of T-values under the null hypothesis that the two samples are drawn from the same underlying population. We show that, in a simple test case, the distribution is not sufficiently well described by the generalised extreme value function. We present a new method, where the distribution of T-values under the null hypothesis when comparing two large samples can be found by scaling the distribution found when comparing small samples drawn from the same population. This method can then be used to quickly calculate the p-values associated with the results of the test.

Changes in seasonal streamflow extremes experienced in rivers of Northwestern South America (Colombia)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pierini, J. O.; Restrepo, J. C.; Aguirre, J.; Bustamante, A. M.; Velásquez, G. J.

2017-04-01

A measure of the variability in seasonal extreme streamflow was estimated for the Colombian Caribbean coast, using monthly time series of freshwater discharge from ten watersheds. The aim was to detect modifications in the streamflow monthly distribution, seasonal trends, variance and extreme monthly values. A 20-year length time moving window, with 1-year successive shiftments, was applied to the monthly series to analyze the seasonal variability of streamflow. The seasonal-windowed data were statistically fitted through the Gamma distribution function. Scale and shape parameters were computed using the Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) and the bootstrap method for 1000 resample. A trend analysis was performed for each windowed-serie, allowing to detect the window of maximum absolute values for trends. Significant temporal shifts in seasonal streamflow distribution and quantiles (QT), were obtained for different frequencies. Wet and dry extremes periods increased significantly in the last decades. Such increase did not occur simultaneously through the region. Some locations exhibited continuous increases only at minimum QT.

An Example of Economic Value in Rapid Prototyping

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hauer, R. L.; Braunscheidel, E. P.

2001-01-01

Today's modern machining projects are composed more and more of complicated and intricate structure due to a variety of reasons including the ability to computer model complex surfaces and forms. The cost of producing these forms can be extremely high not only in dollars but in time to complete. Changes are even more difficult to incorporate. The subject blade shown is an excellent example. Its complex form would have required hundreds of hours in fabrication for just a simple prototype. The procurement would have taken in the neighborhood of six weeks to complete. The actual fabrication would have been an equal amount of time to complete. An alternative to this process would have been a wood model. Although cheaper than a metal fabrication, it would be extremely time intensive and require in the neighborhood of a month to produce in-house.

[Difference in ionic specificity of ATP synthesis in extremely alkalophilic sulfate-reducing and acetogenic bacteria].

PubMed

Pitriuk, A V; Pusheva, M A

2001-01-01

Ionic specificity of oxidative phosphorylation was studied in Natroniella acetigena and Desulfonatronum lacustre, which are new alkaliphilic anaerobes that were isolated from soda lakes and have a pH growth optimum of 9.5-9.7. The ability of their cells to synthesize ATP in response to the imposition of artificial delta pH+ and delta pNa+ gradients was studied. As distinct from other marine and freshwater sulfate reducers and extremely alkaliphilic anaerobes, D. lacustre uses a Na(+)-translocating ATPase for ATP synthesis. The alkaliphilic acetogen N. acetigena, which develops at a much higher Na+ concentration in the medium, generated primary delta pH+ for ATP synthesis. Thus, the high Na+ concentrations and alkaline pH values typical of soda lakes do not predetermine the type of bioenergetics of their inhabitants.

Lee-Wick black holes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bambi, Cosimo; Modesto, Leonardo; Wang, Yixu

2017-01-01

We derive and study an approximate static vacuum solution generated by a point-like source in a higher derivative gravitational theory with a pair of complex conjugate ghosts. The gravitational theory is local and characterized by a high derivative operator compatible with Lee-Wick unitarity. In particular, the tree-level two-point function only shows a pair of complex conjugate poles besides the massless spin two graviton. We show that singularity-free black holes exist when the mass of the source M exceeds a critical value Mcrit. For M >Mcrit the spacetime structure is characterized by an outer event horizon and an inner Cauchy horizon, while for M =Mcrit we have an extremal black hole with vanishing Hawking temperature. The evaporation process leads to a remnant that approaches the zero-temperature extremal black hole state in an infinite amount of time.

Use of MgF2 and LiF photocathodes in the extreme ultraviolet.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lapson, L. B.; Timothy, J. G.

1973-01-01

The photoelectric yields of 2000-A thick samples of MgF2 and LiF have been measured at wavelengths in the range from 1216 to 461 A. Peak values of 43 and 34%, respectively, were obtained at wavelengths around 550 A at 45 deg incidence. Coating the cathode of a channel electron multiplier with 3000 A of MgF2 produced no significant deterioration in the electrical properties and increased the sensitivity by factors of 1.62, 2.76, and 2.60 at wavelengths of 742, 584, and 461 A, respectively. Since the stability of response of the MgF2 photocathodes appears to be equal to that of conventional metallic and semiconducting cathodes, it is concluded that MgF2 would be a practical, high-efficiency photocathode for use in the extreme ultraviolet.

Physiologic regulation of body energy storage

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pitts, G. C.

1978-01-01

Both new and published data (rats, mice, and human beings) on three parameters - fat mass, fat-free body mass (FFBM), and total body mass in some cases - are evaluated. Steady state values of the parameters are analyzed for changes in response to specific perturbing agents and for their frequency distributions. Temporal sequences of values on individuals are examined for evidence of regulatory responses. The results lead to the hypothesis that the FFBM is regulated, but probably not as a unit, and that mass of fat is regulated with a high priority near the range extremes but with a much lower priority in the mid-range. Properties and advantages of such a mechanism are discussed.

Advanced Manufacturing and Value-added Products from US Agriculture

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Villet, Ruxton H.; Child, Dennis R.; Acock, Basil

1992-01-01

An objective of the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Agriculture Research Service (ARS) is to develop technology leading to a broad portfolio of value-added marketable products. Modern scientific disciplines such as chemical engineering are brought into play to develop processes for converting bulk commodities into high-margin products. To accomplish this, the extremely sophisticated processing devices which form the basis of modern biotechnology, namely, genes and enzymes, can be tailored to perform the required functions. The USDA/ARS is a leader in the development of intelligent processing equipment (IPE) for agriculture in the broadest sense. Applications of IPE are found in the production, processing, grading, and marketing aspects of agriculture. Various biotechnology applications of IPE are discussed.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ashouri, Hamed; Sorooshian, Soroosh; Hsu, Kuo-Lin

This study evaluates the performance of NASA's Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) precipitation product in reproducing the trend and distribution of extreme precipitation events. Utilizing the extreme value theory, time-invariant and time-variant extreme value distributions are developed to model the trends and changes in the patterns of extreme precipitation events over the contiguous United States during 1979-2010. The Climate Prediction Center (CPC)U.S.Unified gridded observation data are used as the observational dataset. The CPC analysis shows that the eastern and western parts of the United States are experiencing positive and negative trends in annual maxima, respectively. The continental-scalemore » patterns of change found in MERRA seem to reasonably mirror the observed patterns of change found in CPC. This is not previously expected, given the difficulty in constraining precipitation in reanalysis products. MERRA tends to overestimate the frequency at which the 99th percentile of precipitation is exceeded because this threshold tends to be lower in MERRA, making it easier to be exceeded. This feature is dominant during the summer months. MERRAtends to reproduce spatial patterns of the scale and location parameters of the generalized extreme value and generalized Pareto distributions. However, MERRA underestimates these parameters, particularly over the Gulf Coast states, leading to lower magnitudes in extreme precipitation events. Two issues in MERRA are identified: 1)MERRAshows a spurious negative trend in Nebraska andKansas, which ismost likely related to the changes in the satellite observing system over time that has apparently affected the water cycle in the central United States, and 2) the patterns of positive trend over theGulf Coast states and along the East Coast seem to be correlated with the tropical cyclones in these regions. The analysis of the trends in the seasonal precipitation extremes indicates that the hurricane and winter seasons are contributing the most to these trend patterns in the southeastern United States. The increasing annual trend simulated by MERRA in the Gulf Coast region is due to an incorrect trend in winter precipitation extremes.« less

Climate Change: A New Metric to Measure Changes in the Frequency of Extreme Temperatures using Record Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Munasinghe, L.; Jun, T.; Rind, D. H.

2012-01-01

Consensus on global warming is the result of multiple and varying lines of evidence, and one key ramification is the increase in frequency of extreme climate events including record high temperatures. Here we develop a metric- called "record equivalent draws" (RED)-based on record high (low) temperature observations, and show that changes in RED approximate changes in the likelihood of extreme high (low) temperatures. Since we also show that this metric is independent of the specifics of the underlying temperature distributions, RED estimates can be aggregated across different climates to provide a genuinely global assessment of climate change. Using data on monthly average temperatures across the global landmass we find that the frequency of extreme high temperatures increased 10-fold between the first three decades of the last century (1900-1929) and the most recent decade (1999-2008). A more disaggregated analysis shows that the increase in frequency of extreme high temperatures is greater in the tropics than in higher latitudes, a pattern that is not indicated by changes in mean temperature. Our RED estimates also suggest concurrent increases in the frequency of both extreme high and extreme low temperatures during 2002-2008, a period when we observe a plateauing of global mean temperature. Using daily extreme temperature observations, we find that the frequency of extreme high temperatures is greater in the daily minimum temperature time-series compared to the daily maximum temperature time-series. There is no such observable difference in the frequency of extreme low temperatures between the daily minimum and daily maximum.

Large uncertainties in observed daily precipitation extremes over land

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Herold, Nicholas; Behrangi, Ali; Alexander, Lisa V.

2017-01-01

We explore uncertainties in observed daily precipitation extremes over the terrestrial tropics and subtropics (50°S-50°N) based on five commonly used products: the Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) dataset, the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre-Full Data Daily (GPCC-FDD) dataset, the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) multi-satellite research product (T3B42 v7), the Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks-Climate Data Record (PERSIANN-CDR), and the Global Precipitation Climatology Project's One-Degree Daily (GPCP-1DD) dataset. We use the precipitation indices R10mm and Rx1day, developed by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices, to explore the behavior of "moderate" and "extreme" extremes, respectively. In order to assess the sensitivity of extreme precipitation to different grid sizes we perform our calculations on four common spatial resolutions (0.25° × 0.25°, 1° × 1°, 2.5° × 2.5°, and 3.75° × 2.5°). The impact of the chosen "order of operation" in calculating these indices is also determined. Our results show that moderate extremes are relatively insensitive to product and resolution choice, while extreme extremes can be very sensitive. For example, at 0.25° × 0.25° quasi-global mean Rx1day values vary from 37 mm in PERSIANN-CDR to 62 mm in T3B42. We find that the interproduct spread becomes prominent at resolutions of 1° × 1° and finer, thus establishing a minimum effective resolution at which observational products agree. Without improvements in interproduct spread, these exceedingly large observational uncertainties at high spatial resolution may limit the usefulness of model evaluations. As has been found previously, resolution sensitivity can be largely eliminated by applying an order of operation where indices are calculated prior to regridding. However, this approach is not appropriate when true area averages are desired (e.g., for model evaluations).

Extreme Programming: Maestro Style

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Norris, Jeffrey; Fox, Jason; Rabe, Kenneth; Shu, I-Hsiang; Powell, Mark

2009-01-01

"Extreme Programming: Maestro Style" is the name of a computer programming methodology that has evolved as a custom version of a methodology, called extreme programming that has been practiced in the software industry since the late 1990s. The name of this version reflects its origin in the work of the Maestro team at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory that develops software for Mars exploration missions. Extreme programming is oriented toward agile development of software resting on values of simplicity, communication, testing, and aggressiveness. Extreme programming involves use of methods of rapidly building and disseminating institutional knowledge among members of a computer-programming team to give all the members a shared view that matches the view of the customers for whom the software system is to be developed. Extreme programming includes frequent planning by programmers in collaboration with customers, continually examining and rewriting code in striving for the simplest workable software designs, a system metaphor (basically, an abstraction of the system that provides easy-to-remember software-naming conventions and insight into the architecture of the system), programmers working in pairs, adherence to a set of coding standards, collaboration of customers and programmers, frequent verbal communication, frequent releases of software in small increments of development, repeated testing of the developmental software by both programmers and customers, and continuous interaction between the team and the customers. The environment in which the Maestro team works requires the team to quickly adapt to changing needs of its customers. In addition, the team cannot afford to accept unnecessary development risk. Extreme programming enables the Maestro team to remain agile and provide high-quality software and service to its customers. However, several factors in the Maestro environment have made it necessary to modify some of the conventional extreme-programming practices. The single most influential of these factors is that continuous interaction between customers and programmers is not feasible.

Extreme events and event size fluctuations in biased random walks on networks.

PubMed

Kishore, Vimal; Santhanam, M S; Amritkar, R E

2012-05-01

Random walk on discrete lattice models is important to understand various types of transport processes. The extreme events, defined as exceedences of the flux of walkers above a prescribed threshold, have been studied recently in the context of complex networks. This was motivated by the occurrence of rare events such as traffic jams, floods, and power blackouts which take place on networks. In this work, we study extreme events in a generalized random walk model in which the walk is preferentially biased by the network topology. The walkers preferentially choose to hop toward the hubs or small degree nodes. In this setting, we show that extremely large fluctuations in event sizes are possible on small degree nodes when the walkers are biased toward the hubs. In particular, we obtain the distribution of event sizes on the network. Further, the probability for the occurrence of extreme events on any node in the network depends on its "generalized strength," a measure of the ability of a node to attract walkers. The generalized strength is a function of the degree of the node and that of its nearest neighbors. We obtain analytical and simulation results for the probability of occurrence of extreme events on the nodes of a network using a generalized random walk model. The result reveals that the nodes with a larger value of generalized strength, on average, display lower probability for the occurrence of extreme events compared to the nodes with lower values of generalized strength.

Projected Changes in Temperature and Precipitation Extremes over China as Measured by 50-yr Return Values and Periods Based on a CMIP5 Ensemble

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Ying; Gao, Xuejie; Giorgi, Filippo; Zhou, Botao; Shi, Ying; Wu, Jie; Zhang, Yongxiang

2018-04-01

Future changes in the 50-yr return level for temperature and precipitation extremes over mainland China are investigated based on a CMIP5 multi-model ensemble for RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The following indices are analyzed: TXx and TNn (the annual maximum and minimum of daily maximum and minimum surface temperature), RX5day (the annual maximum consecutive 5-day precipitation) and CDD (maximum annual number of consecutive dry days). After first validating the model performance, future changes in the 50-yr return values and return periods for these indices are investigated along with the inter-model spread. Multi-model median changes show an increase in the 50-yr return values of TXx and a decrease for TNn, more specifically, by the end of the 21st century under RCP8.5, the present day 50-yr return period of warm events is reduced to 1.2 yr, while extreme cold events over the country are projected to essentially disappear. A general increase in RX5day 50-yr return values is found in the future. By the end of the 21st century under RCP8.5, events of the present RX5day 50-yr return period are projected to reduce to < 10 yr over most of China. Changes in CDD-50 show a dipole pattern over China, with a decrease in the values and longer return periods in the north, and vice versa in the south. Our study also highlights the need for further improvements in the representation of extreme events in climate models to assess the future risks and engineering design related to large-scale infrastructure in China.

Children’s Personal Exposure Measurements to Extremely Low Frequency Magnetic Fields in Italy

PubMed Central

Liorni, Ilaria; Parazzini, Marta; Struchen, Benjamin; Fiocchi, Serena; Röösli, Martin; Ravazzani, Paolo

2016-01-01

Extremely low frequency magnetic fields (ELF-MFs) exposure is still a topic of concern due to their possible impact on children’s health. Although epidemiological studies claimed an evidence of a possible association between ELF-MF above 0.4 μT and childhood leukemia, biological mechanisms able to support a causal relationship between ELF-MF and this disease were not found yet. To provide further knowledge about children’s ELF-MF exposure correlated to children’s daily activities, a measurement study was conducted in Milan (Italy). Eighty-six children were recruited, 52 of whom were specifically chosen with respect to the distance to power lines and built-in transformers to oversample potentially highly exposed children. Personal and bedroom measurements were performed for each child in two different seasons. The major outcomes of this study are: (1) median values over 24-h personal and bedroom measurements were <3 μT established by the Italian law as the quality target; (2) geometric mean values over 24-h bedroom measurements were mostly <0.4 μT; (3) seasonal variations did not significantly influence personal and bedroom measurements; (4) the highest average MF levels were mostly found at home during the day and outdoors; (5) no significant differences were found in the median and geometric mean values between personal and bedroom measurements, but were found in the arithmetic mean. PMID:27258295

Eating style in seasonal affective disorder: who will gain weight in winter?

PubMed

Kräuchi, K; Reich, S; Wirz-Justice, A

1997-01-01

Patients with seasonal affective disorder (SAD) selectively eat more carbohydrates (CHO), particularly sweets but also starch-rich foods, during their depression in winter. The Dutch Eating Behaviour Questionnaire (DEBQ) was administered to female SAD patients, healthy female controls, and female medical students to determine their eating style, together with the modified Seasonal Pattern Assessment Questionnaire (SPAQ+). SAD patients showed higher values for "emotional" (EMOT) eating than the students, and these in turn had higher values than the controls. In comparison to controls, SAD patients and students head high values for the factor "external" (EXT) eating, but there was no difference between the groups with respect to "restraint" (REST) eating. This is in strong contrast to patients with bulimia and anorexia nervosa, who are high REST eaters, indicating that SAD patients do not have a similar eating disorder. Additional items showed that SAD patients selectively eat sweets under emotionally difficult conditions (when depressed, anxious, or lonely). Configural frequency analysis showed that seasonal body weight change (SBWC) is high in subjects with high EMOT and REST eating together with a high body mass index (BMI). This result is in accordance with the concept of disinhibition of dietary restraint in extreme emotional situations, e.g., the depressive state.

Linearized stability of extreme black holes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burko, Lior M.; Khanna, Gaurav

2018-03-01

Extreme black holes have been argued to be unstable, in the sense that under linearized gravitational perturbations of the extreme Kerr spacetime the Weyl scalar ψ4 blows up along their event horizons at very late advanced times. We show numerically, by solving the Teukolsky equation in 2 +1 D , that all algebraically independent curvature scalar polynomials approach limits that exist when advanced time along the event horizon approaches infinity. Therefore, the horizons of extreme black holes are stable against linearized gravitational perturbations. We argue that the divergence of ψ4 is a consequence of the choice of a fixed tetrad, and that in a suitable dynamical tetrad all Weyl scalars, including ψ4, approach their background extreme Kerr values. We make similar conclusions also for the case of scalar field perturbations of extreme Kerr.

Detection of Extremes with AIRS and CrIS

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Aumann, Hartmut H.; Manning, Evan M.; Behrangi, Ali

2013-01-01

Climate change is expected to be detected first as changes in extreme values rather than in mean values. The availability of data of from two instruments in the same orbit, AIRS data for the past eleven years and AIRS and CrIS data from the past year, provides an opportunity to evaluate this using examples of climate relevance: Desertification, seen as changes in hot extremes, severe storm, seen as a change in extremely cold clouds and the warming of the polar zone. We use AIRS to establish trends for the 1%tile, the mean and 99%tile brightness temperatures measured with the 900 cm(exp -1) channel from AIRS for the past 11 years. This channel is in the clearest part of the 11 micron atmospheric window. Substantial trends are seen for land and ocean, which in the case of the 1%tile (cold) extremes are related to the current shift of deep convection from ocean to land. Changes are also seen in the 99%tile for day tropical land, but their interpretation is at present unclear. We also see dramatic changes for the mean and 99%tile of the North Polar area. The trends are an order of magnitude larger than the instrument trend of about 3 mK/year. We use the statistical distribution from the past year derived from AIRS to evaluate the accuracy of continuing the trends established with AIRS with CrIS data. We minimize the concern about differences in the spectral response functions by limiting the analysis to the channel at 900 cm(exp -1).While the two instruments agree within 100 mK for the global day/night land/ocean mean values, there are significant differences when evaluating the1% and 99%tiles. We see a consistent warm bias in the CrIS data relative to AIRS for the 1%tile (extremely cold, cloudy) data in the tropical zone, particularly for tropical land, but the bias is not day/night land/ocean consistent. At this point the difference appears to be due to differences in the radiometric response of AIRS and CrIS to differences in the day/night land/ocean cloud types. Unless the effect can be mitigated by a future reprocessing the CrIS data, it will significantly complicate the concatenation of the AIRS and CrIS data records for the continuation of trends in extreme values.

Volume-translated cubic EoS and PC-SAFT density models and a free volume-based viscosity model for hydrocarbons at extreme temperature and pressure conditions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Burgess, Ward A.; Tapriyal, Deepak; Morreale, Bryan D.

2013-12-01

This research focuses on providing the petroleum reservoir engineering community with robust models of hydrocarbon density and viscosity at the extreme temperature and pressure conditions (up to 533 K and 276 MPa, respectively) characteristic of ultra-deep reservoirs, such as those associated with the deepwater wells in the Gulf of Mexico. Our strategy is to base the volume-translated (VT) Peng–Robinson (PR) and Soave–Redlich–Kwong (SRK) cubic equations of state (EoSs) and perturbed-chain, statistical associating fluid theory (PC-SAFT) on an extensive data base of high temperature (278–533 K), high pressure (6.9–276 MPa) density rather than fitting the models to low pressure saturated liquidmore » density data. This high-temperature, high-pressure (HTHP) data base consists of literature data for hydrocarbons ranging from methane to C{sub 40}. The three new models developed in this work, HTHP VT-PR EoS, HTHP VT-SRK EoS, and hybrid PC-SAFT, yield mean absolute percent deviation values (MAPD) for HTHP hydrocarbon density of ~2.0%, ~1.5%, and <1.0%, respectively. An effort was also made to provide accurate hydrocarbon viscosity models based on literature data. Viscosity values are estimated with the frictional theory (f-theory) and free volume (FV) theory of viscosity. The best results were obtained when the PC-SAFT equation was used to obtain both the attractive and repulsive pressure inputs to f-theory, and the density input to FV theory. Both viscosity models provide accurate results at pressures to 100 MPa but experimental and model results can deviate by more than 25% at pressures above 200 MPa.« less

The bivalve Glycymeris planicostalis as a high-resolution paleoclimate archive for the Rupelian (Early Oligocene) of central Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walliser, E. O.; Schöne, B. R.; Tütken, T.; Zirkel, J.; Grimm, K. I.; Pross, J.

2015-04-01

Current global warming is likely to result in a unipolar glaciated world with unpredictable repercussions on atmospheric and oceanic circulation patterns. These changes are expected to affect seasonal extremes and the year-to-year variability of seasonality. To better constrain the mode and tempo of the anticipated changes, climatologists require ultra-high-resolution proxy data of time intervals in the past, e.g., the Oligocene, during which boundary conditions were similar to those predicted for the near future. In the present paper, we assess whether such information can be obtained from shells of the long-lived bivalve mollusk Glycymeris planicostalis from the late Rupelian of the Mainz Basin, Germany. Our results indicate that the studied shells are pristinely preserved and provide an excellent archive for reconstructing changes of sea surface temperature on seasonal to interannual timescales. Shells of G. planicostalis grew uninterruptedly during winter and summer and therefore recorded the full seasonal temperature amplitude that prevailed in the Mainz Basin ~ 30 Ma. Absolute sea surface temperature data were reconstructed from δ18Oshell values assuming a δ18Owater signature that was extrapolated from coeval sirenian tooth enamel. Reconstructed values range between 12.3 and 22.0 °C and agree well with previous estimates based on planktonic foraminifera and shark teeth. However, temperatures during seasonal extremes vary greatly on interannual timescales. Mathematically re-sampled (i.e., corrected for uneven number of samples per annual increment) winter and summer temperatures averaged over 40 annual increments of three specimens equal 13.6 ± 0.8 and 17.3 ± 1.2 °C, respectively. Such high-resolution paleoclimate information can be highly relevant for numerical climate studies aiming to predict possible future climates in a unipolar glaciated or, ultimately, polar-ice-free world.

Added Value of Physical Performance Measures in Predicting Adverse Health-Related Events: Results from the Health, Aging, and Body Composition Study

PubMed Central

Cesari, Matteo; Kritchevsky, Stephen B; Newman, Anne B; Simonsick, Eleanor M; Harris, Tamara B; Penninx, Brenda W; Brach, Jennifer S; Tylavsky, Frances A; Satterfield, Suzanne; Bauer, Doug C; Rubin, Susan M; Visser, Marjolein; Pahor, Marco

2009-01-01

Objectives To determine how three different physical performance measures (PPM) combine for added utility in predicting adverse health events in elders. Design Prospective cohort study. Setting Health, Aging, and Body Composition Study. Participants 3,024 well-functioning older persons (mean age 73.6 years). Measurements Timed gait, repeated chair stands and balance (semi- and full-tandem, and single leg stands each held for 30 seconds) tests were administered at baseline. Usual gait speed was categorized to distinguish high and low risk participants using the previously established 1 m/sec cut-point. The same population-percentile (21.3%) was used to identify cut-points for repeated chair stands (17.05 sec) and balance (53 sec) tests. Cox proportional hazard analyses were performed to evaluate the added value of PPM in predicting mortality, hospitalization, and (severe) mobility limitation events over 6.9 years of follow-up. Results Risk estimates for developing adverse health-related events were similarly large for each of the three high risk groups considered separately. A greater number of PPM scores at the high risk level was associated with a greater risk of developing adverse health-related events. When all three PPMs were considered, having only one poor performance was sufficient to indicate a highly significant higher risk of (severe) lower extremity and mortality events. Conclusion Although gait speed is considered the most important predictor of adverse health events, these findings demonstrate that poor performance on other tests of lower extremity function are equally prognostic. This suggests that chair stand and standing balance performance may be adequate substitutes when gait speed is unavailable. PMID:19207142

Modal analysis of the ultrahigh finesse Haroche QED cavity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marsic, Nicolas; De Gersem, Herbert; Demésy, Guillaume; Nicolet, André; Geuzaine, Christophe

2018-04-01

In this paper, we study a high-order finite element approach to simulate an ultrahigh finesse Fabry–Pérot superconducting open resonator for cavity quantum electrodynamics. Because of its high quality factor, finding a numerically converged value of the damping time requires an extremely high spatial resolution. Therefore, the use of high-order simulation techniques appears appropriate. This paper considers idealized mirrors (no surface roughness and perfect geometry, just to cite a few hypotheses), and shows that under these assumptions, a damping time much higher than what is available in experimental measurements could be achieved. In addition, this work shows that both high-order discretizations of the governing equations and high-order representations of the curved geometry are mandatory for the computation of the damping time of such cavities.

Extraction chromatographic separations of tantalum and tungsten from hafnium and complex matrix constituents

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Snow, Mathew S.; Finck, Martha R.; Carney, Kevin P.

2017-02-01

Ta, Hf, and W analyses from complex matrices (including environmental samples) require high purification of these analytes from each other and major/trace matrix constituents, however, current state-of-the-art Ta/Hf/W separations rely on traditional anion exchange approaches that suffer from relatively similar distribution coefficient (Kd) values for these analytes. This work reports assessment of three commercially available extraction chromatographic resins (TEVA, TRU, and UTEVA) for Ta/Hf/W separations. Batch contact studies show differences in Ta/W,Hf Kd values of up to 106, representing an improvement of a factor of 100 and 300 in Ta/Hf and Ta/W Kd values (respectively) over AG1x4 resin. Variations inmore » the Kd values as a function of HCl concentration for TRU resin show that this resin is well suited for Ta/Hf/W separations, with Ta/Hf, Ta/W, and W/Hf Kd value improvements of 10, 200, and 30 (respectively) over AG1x4 resin. Finally, analyses of digested soil samples (NIST 2710a) using TRU resin and tandem TEVA-TRU columns demonstrate the ability to achieve extremely high purification (>99%) of Ta and W from each other and Hf, as well as enabling very high purification of Ta and W from the major and trace elemental constituents present in soils, using a single chromatographic step.« less

Extraction chromatographic separations of tantalum and tungsten from hafnium and complex matrix constituents

DOE PAGES

Snow, Mathew S.; Finck, Martha R.; Carney, Kevin P.; ...

2017-01-08

Ta, Hf, and W analyses from complex matrices (including environmental samples) require high purification of these analytes from each other and major/trace matrix constituents, but, current state-of-the-art Ta/Hf/W separations rely on traditional anion exchange approaches that suffer from relatively similar distribution coefficient (Kd) values for these analytes. Our work reports assessment of three commercially available extraction chromatographic resins (TEVA, TRU, and UTEVA) for Ta/Hf/W separations. Batch contact studies show differences in Ta/W,Hf Kd values of up to 10 6, representing an improvement of a factor of 100 and 300 in Ta/Hf and Ta/W Kd values (respectively) over AG1x4 resin. Furthermore,more » variations in the Kd values as a function of HCl concentration for TRU resin show that this resin is well suited for Ta/Hf/W separations, with Ta/Hf, Ta/W, and W/Hf Kd value improvements of 10, 200, and 30 (respectively) over AG1x4 resin. Finally, analyses of digested soil samples (NIST 2710a) using TRU resin and tandem TEVA-TRU columns demonstrate the ability to achieve extremely high purification (>99%) of Ta and W from each other and Hf, as well as enabling very high purification of Ta and W from the major and trace elemental constituents present in soils, using a single chromatographic step.« less

Storms or cold fronts: what is really responsible for the extreme waves regime in the Colombian Caribbean coastal region?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Otero, L. J.; Ortiz-Royero, J. C.; Ruiz-Merchan, J. K.; Higgins, A. E.; Henriquez, S. A.

2016-02-01

The aim of this study is to determine the contribution and importance of cold fronts and storms to extreme waves in different areas of the Colombian Caribbean in an attempt to determine the extent of the threat posed by the flood processes to which these coastal populations are exposed. Furthermore, the study wishes to establish the actions to which coastal engineering constructions should be subject. In the calculation of maritime constructions, the most important parameter is the height of the wave. For this reason, it is necessary to establish the design wave height to which a coastal engineering structure should be resistant. This wave height varies according to the return period considered. The significant height values for the areas focused on in the study were calculated in accordance with Gumbel's extreme value methodology. The methodology was evaluated using data from the reanalysis of the spectral National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) WAVEWATCH III® (WW3) model for 15 points along the 1600 km of the Colombian Caribbean coastline (continental and insular) between the years 1979 and 2009. The results demonstrated that the extreme waves caused by tropical cyclones and those caused by cold fronts have different effects along the Colombian Caribbean coast. Storms and hurricanes are of greater importance in the Guajira Peninsula (Alta Guajira). In the central area (consisting of Baja Guajira, and the cities of Santa Marta, Barranquilla, and Cartagena), the strong impact of cold fronts on extreme waves is evident. However, in the southern region of the Colombian Caribbean coast (ranging from the Gulf of Morrosquillo to the Gulf of Urabá), the extreme values of wave heights are lower than in the previously mentioned regions, despite being dominated mainly by the passage of cold fronts. Extreme waves in the San Andrés and Providencia insular region present a different dynamic from that in the continental area due to their geographic location. The wave heights in the extreme regime are similar in magnitude to those found in Alta Guajira, but the extreme waves associated with the passage of cold fronts in this region have lower return periods than those associated with the hurricane season.

Fluoride pollution of atmospheric precipitation and its relationship with air circulation and weather patterns (Wielkopolski National Park, Poland).

PubMed

Walna, Barbara; Kurzyca, Iwona; Bednorz, Ewa; Kolendowicz, Leszek

2013-07-01

A 2-year study (2010-2011) of fluorides in atmospheric precipitation in the open area and in throughfall in Wielkopolski National Park (west-central Poland) showed their high concentrations, reaching a maximum value of 2 mg/l under the tree crowns. These high values indicate substantial deposition of up to 52 mg/m(2)/year. In 2011, over 51% of open area precipitation was characterized by fluoride concentration higher than 0.10 mg/l, and in throughfall such concentrations were found in more than 86% of events. In 2010, a strong connection was evident between fluoride and acid-forming ions, and in 2011, a correlation between phosphate and nitrite ions was seen. Analysis of available data on F(-) concentrations in the air did not show an unequivocal effect on F(-) concentrations in precipitation. To find reasons for and source areas of high fluoride pollution, the cases of extreme fluoride concentration in rainwater were related to atmospheric circulation and weather patterns. Weather conditions on days of extreme pollution were determined by movement of weather fronts over western Poland, or by small cyclonic centers with meteorological fronts. Macroscale air advection over the sampling site originated in the western quadrant (NW, W, and SW), particularly in the middle layers of the troposphere (2,500-5,000 m a.s.l.). Such directions indicate western Poland and Germany as possible sources of the pollution. At the same time in the lower troposphere, air inflow was frequently from the north, showing short distance transport from local emitters, and from the agglomeration of Poznań.

In situ analysis of proteins at high temperatures mediated by capillary-flow hydrothermal UV-vis spectrophotometer with a water-soluble chromogenic reagent.

PubMed

Kawamura, Kunio; Nagayoshi, Hiroki; Yao, Toshio

2010-05-14

In situ monitoring of quantities, interactions, and conformations of proteins is essential for the study of biochemistry under hydrothermal environments and the analysis of hyperthermophilic organisms in natural hydrothermal systems on Earth. We have investigated the potential of a capillary-flow hydrothermal UV-vis spectrophotometer (CHUS) for performing in situ measurements of proteins and determining their behavior at extremely high temperatures, in combination with a chromogenic reagents probe, which interacts with the proteins. The spectral shift obtained using a combination of water-soluble porphyrin (TPPS) and bovine serum albumin (BSA) was the best among the spectral shifts obtained using different combinations of chromogenic reagents and proteins. The association behavior of TPPS with BSA was investigated in detail using CHUS at temperatures up to 175 degrees C and the association constant (K(ass)) of TPPS with BSA was successfully determined at temperatures up to 100 degrees C. The lnK(ass) values were inversely proportional to the T(-1) values in the temperature range 50-100 degrees C. These analyses showed for the first time that the decrease of association of TPPS with BSA is due to the conformational change, fragmentation, and/or denaturing of BSA rather than the decrease of the hydrophobic association between TPPS and BSA. This study conclusively demonstrates the usability of the CHUS system with a chromogenic reagent as an in situ detection and measurement system for thermostable proteins at extremely high temperatures. Copyright 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.