7 CFR 1940.314 - Criteria for determining a significant environmental impact.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... wetlands are of critical importance to man, and because these areas are often extremely sensitive to man... or property. Examples of such actions include facilities which produce, use, or store highly volatile...

7 CFR 1940.314 - Criteria for determining a significant environmental impact.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... wetlands are of critical importance to man, and because these areas are often extremely sensitive to man... or property. Examples of such actions include facilities which produce, use, or store highly volatile...

A study of the impacts of climate change scenarios on the plant hardiness zones of Albania

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Maps of plant hardiness zones are useful tools for determining the extreme limits for the survival of plants. Exploration of projected climate change effects on hardiness zones can help identify areas most affected by climate change. Such studies are important in areas with high risks related to cli...

Generalized extreme gust wind speeds distributions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cheng, E.; Yeung, C.

2002-01-01

Since summer 1996, the US wind engineers are using the extreme gust (or 3-s gust) as the basic wind speed to quantify the destruction of extreme winds. In order to better understand these destructive wind forces, it is important to know the appropriate representations of these extreme gust wind speeds. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to determine the most suitable extreme value distributions for the annual extreme gust wind speeds recorded in large selected areas. To achieve this objective, we are using the generalized Pareto distribution as the diagnostic tool for determining the types of extreme gust wind speed distributions. The three-parameter generalized extreme value distribution function is, thus, reduced to either Type I Gumbel, Type II Frechet or Type III reverse Weibull distribution function for the annual extreme gust wind speeds recorded at a specific site.With the considerations of the quality and homogeneity of gust wind data collected at more than 750 weather stations throughout the United States, annual extreme gust wind speeds at selected 143 stations in the contiguous United States were used in the study. ?? 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Mapping paddy rice area and yields over Thai Binh province in Viet Nam from MODIS, Landsat and ALOS-2/PALSAR-2

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Rice is the most important staple crop grown and consumed in Southeast Asia. Timely and reliable rice production estimates are therefore important in monitoring government development plans in the region and in mitigating the effects of extreme weather and climate change to address food insecurity. ...

Permafrost as an additional driving factor for the extreme fire event in the boreal Baikal region in 2003

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Forkel, M.; Thonicke, K.; Beer, C.; Cramer, W.; Bartalev, S.; Schmullius, C.

2012-04-01

Wildfires are a natural and important element in the functioning of boreal forests. However, in some years, fires with extreme spread and severity occur. Such severe fires degrade the forest, affect human values, emit huge amount of carbon and aerosols and alter the land surface albedo. Usually, wind, slope, and dry conditions have been recognized as factors determining fire spread. In the Baikal region, 127,000 km2 burned in 2003, while the annual average burned area is approx. 8100 km2. In average years, 16% of the burned area occurred in the continuous permafrost zone but in 2003, 33% of these burned areas coincide with the existence of permanently frozen grounds. Permafrost and the associated upper active layer, which thaws during summer and refreezes during winter, is an important supply for soil moisture in boreal ecosystems. This leads to the question if permafrost hydrology is a potential additional driving factor for extreme fire events in boreal forests. Using temperature and precipitation data, we calculated the Nesterov index as indicator for fire weather conditions. Further, we used satellite observations of burned area and surface moisture, a digital elevation model, a land cover and a permafrost map to evaluate drivers for the temporal dynamic and spatial variability of surface moisture conditions and burned area in spring 2003. On the basis of time series decomposition, we separated the effect of drivers for fire activity on different time scales. We next computed cross-correlations to identify potential time lags between weather conditions, surface moisture and fire activity. Finally, we assessed the predictive capability of different combinations of driving variables for surface moisture conditions and burned area using multivariate spatial-temporal regression models. The results from this study demonstrate that permafrost in larch-dominated ecosystems regulates the inter-annual variability of surface moisture and thus increases the inter-annual variability of burned area. The drought conditions in spring 2003 were accelerated by the presence of permafrost because less water was stored in the upper active layer from the dry previous summer 2002 and the permafrost table prevents vegetative water uptake from deeper layers. In contrast, weather conditions (precipitation anomaly, Nesterov index) are weaker predictors for the 2003 fire event. Our analysis advances the understanding of complex interactions between the atmosphere, vegetation and soil on how feedback mechanisms can lead to extreme fire events. These findings emphasize the importance of a mechanistic coupling of soil thermodynamics, hydrology, and fire activity in earth system models for projecting climate change impacts over the next century.

Sensory augmentation for increased awareness of driving environment : final research report.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2016-01-01

The goal of this project was to develop a lateral localization framework for autonomous driving in urban areas. Vehicle location is significant information for the controller, planner and behaviors systems. Lateral location is extremely important for...

Topographic relationships for design rainfalls over Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johnson, F.; Hutchinson, M. F.; The, C.; Beesley, C.; Green, J.

2016-02-01

Design rainfall statistics are the primary inputs used to assess flood risk across river catchments. These statistics normally take the form of Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves that are derived from extreme value probability distributions fitted to observed daily, and sub-daily, rainfall data. The design rainfall relationships are often required for catchments where there are limited rainfall records, particularly catchments in remote areas with high topographic relief and hence some form of interpolation is required to provide estimates in these areas. This paper assesses the topographic dependence of rainfall extremes by using elevation-dependent thin plate smoothing splines to interpolate the mean annual maximum rainfall, for periods from one to seven days, across Australia. The analyses confirm the important impact of topography in explaining the spatial patterns of these extreme rainfall statistics. Continent-wide residual and cross validation statistics are used to demonstrate the 100-fold impact of elevation in relation to horizontal coordinates in explaining the spatial patterns, consistent with previous rainfall scaling studies and observational evidence. The impact of the complexity of the fitted spline surfaces, as defined by the number of knots, and the impact of applying variance stabilising transformations to the data, were also assessed. It was found that a relatively large number of 3570 knots, suitably chosen from 8619 gauge locations, was required to minimise the summary error statistics. Square root and log data transformations were found to deliver marginally superior continent-wide cross validation statistics, in comparison to applying no data transformation, but detailed assessments of residuals in complex high rainfall regions with high topographic relief showed that no data transformation gave superior performance in these regions. These results are consistent with the understanding that in areas with modest topographic relief, as for most of the Australian continent, extreme rainfall is closely aligned with elevation, but in areas with high topographic relief the impacts of topography on rainfall extremes are more complex. The interpolated extreme rainfall statistics, using no data transformation, have been used by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology to produce new IDF data for the Australian continent. The comprehensive methods presented for the evaluation of gridded design rainfall statistics will be useful for similar studies, in particular the importance of balancing the need for a continentally-optimum solution that maintains sufficient definition at the local scale.

Simulating the effect of climate extremes on groundwater flow through a lakebed

USGS Publications Warehouse

Virdi, Makhan L.; Lee, Terrie M.; Swancar, Amy; Niswonger, Richard G.

2012-01-01

Groundwater exchanges with lakes resulting from cyclical wet and dry climate extremes maintain lake levels in the environment in ways that are not well understood, in part because they remain difficult to simulate. To better understand the atypical groundwater interactions with lakes caused by climatic extremes, an original conceptual approach is introduced using MODFLOW-2005 and a kinematic-wave approximation to variably saturated flow that allows lake size and position in the basin to change while accurately representing the daily lake volume and three-dimensional variably saturated groundwater flow responses in the basin. Daily groundwater interactions are simulated for a calibrated lake basin in Florida over a decade that included historic wet and dry departures from the average rainfall. The divergent climate extremes subjected nearly 70% of the maximum lakebed area and 75% of the maximum shoreline perimeter to both groundwater inflow and lake leakage. About half of the lakebed area subject to flow reversals also went dry. A flow-through pattern present for 73% of the decade caused net leakage from the lake 80% of the time. Runoff from the saturated lake margin offset the groundwater deficit only about half of that time. A centripetal flow pattern present for 6% of the decade was important for maintaining the lake stage and generated 30% of all net groundwater inflow. Pumping effects superimposed on dry climate extremes induced the least frequent but most cautionary flow pattern with leakage from over 90% of the actual lakebed area.

Wildfire risk in the wildland-urban interface: A simulation study in northwestern Wisconsin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bar-Massada, A.; Radeloff, V.C.; Stewart, S.I.; Hawbaker, T.J.

2009-01-01

The rapid growth of housing in and near the wildland-urban interface (WUI) increases wildfire risk to lives and structures. To reduce fire risk, it is necessary to identify WUI housing areas that are more susceptible to wildfire. This is challenging, because wildfire patterns depend on fire behavior and spread, which in turn depend on ignition locations, weather conditions, the spatial arrangement of fuels, and topography. The goal of our study was to assess wildfire risk to a 60,000 ha WUI area in northwestern Wisconsin while accounting for all of these factors. We conducted 6000 simulations with two dynamic fire models: Fire Area Simulator (FARSITE) and Minimum Travel Time (MTT) in order to map the spatial pattern of burn probabilities. Simulations were run under normal and extreme weather conditions to assess the effect of weather on fire spread, burn probability, and risk to structures. The resulting burn probability maps were intersected with maps of structure locations and land cover types. The simulations revealed clear hotspots of wildfire activity and a large range of wildfire risk to structures in the study area. As expected, the extreme weather conditions yielded higher burn probabilities over the entire landscape, as well as to different land cover classes and individual structures. Moreover, the spatial pattern of risk was significantly different between extreme and normal weather conditions. The results highlight the fact that extreme weather conditions not only produce higher fire risk than normal weather conditions, but also change the fine-scale locations of high risk areas in the landscape, which is of great importance for fire management in WUI areas. In addition, the choice of weather data may limit the potential for comparisons of risk maps for different areas and for extrapolating risk maps to future scenarios where weather conditions are unknown. Our approach to modeling wildfire risk to structures can aid fire risk reduction management activities by identifying areas with elevated wildfire risk and those most vulnerable under extreme weather conditions. ?? 2009 Elsevier B.V.

Ranking of European Capitals According to the Impact of Future Heat Waves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smid, M.; Costa, A. C.; Russo, S.; Pebesma, E. J.; Canut, C. G.

2017-12-01

In warming Europe, we are witnessing a growth in urban population with aging trend, which will make the society more vulnerable to extreme heat waves. In the period 1950-2015 the occurrence of extreme heat waves increased across European capitals. As an example, Moscow was hit by the strongest heat wave of the present era, killing more than ten thousand people. Here we focus on larger metropolitan areas of European capitals. By using observations and an ensemble of eight EURO-CORDEX models under the RCP8.5 scenario, we calculate a suite of temperature based climate indices. We introduce a simple ranking procedure based on ensemble predictions using the mean of metropolitan grid cells for each capital, and population density as a proxy to quantify the future impact. Results show that the selected ensemble provides solid simulation of climate characteristics over most of the targeted metropolitan areas. All the investigated European metropolitan areas will be more vulnerable to extreme heat in the coming decades. Based on the impact ranking, the results reveal that in near, but mainly in distant future, the extreme heat events in European capitals will be not exclusive to traditionally exposed areas such as the Mediterranean and the Iberian Peninsula. The ranking of European capitals based on their vulnerability to the extreme heat could be of paramount importance to the decision makers in order to mitigate the heat related mortality, especially with the foreseen increase of global mean temperature. Acknowledgments: The authors gratefully acknowledge the support of Geoinformatics: Enabling Open Cities (GEO-C), the project funded by the European Commission within the Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions, International Training Networks (ITN), European Joint Doctorates (EJD). Grant Agreement number 642332 — GEO-C — H2020-MSCA-ITN-2014.

Does Nudging Squelch the Extremes in Regional Climate Modeling?

EPA Science Inventory

An important question in regional climate downscaling is whether to constrain (nudge) the interior of the limited-area domain toward the larger-scale driving fields. Prior research has demonstrated that interior nudging can increase the skill of regional climate predictions origin...

Extreme Binge Drinking among 12th-Grade Students in the U.S.: Prevalence and Predictors

PubMed Central

Patrick, Megan E.; Schulenberg, John E.; Martz, Meghan E.; Maggs, Jennifer L.; O’Malley, Patrick M.; Johnston, Lloyd

2013-01-01

Importance The prevalence of underage alcohol use has been studied extensively but binge drinking among youth in the U.S. is not yet well understood. In particular, adolescents may drink much larger amounts than the threshold (5 drinks) often used in definitions of binge drinking. Delineating various levels of binge drinking, including extreme levels, and understanding predictors of such extreme binge drinking among adolescents will benefit public health efforts. Objective To examine the prevalence and predictors of 5+ binge drinking and of 10+ and 15+ extreme binge drinking among 12th graders in the U.S. Design A non-clinical nationally representative sample. Setting High school seniors in the annual Monitoring the Future study between 2005 and 2011. Participants The sample included 16,332 12th graders (modal age 18) in the U.S. Response rates were 79–85%. Main Outcome Measures Prevalence of consuming 5+, 10+, and 15+ drinks in a row in the past two weeks. Results Between 2005 and 2011, 20.2% of high school seniors reported 5+ binge drinking, 10.5% reported 10+ extreme binge drinking, and 5.6% reported 15+ extreme binge drinking in the past 2 weeks. Rates of 5+ binge drinking and 10+ extreme binge drinking have declined since 2005, but rates of 15+ extreme binge drinking have not. Students with college-educated parents were more likely to consume 5+ drinks but less likely to consume 15+ drinks than students whose parents were not college educated. Students from more rural areas were more likely than students from large metropolitan areas to drink 15+ drinks. Socializing with substance-using peers, number of evenings out with friends, substance-related attitudes, and other substance use (cigarettes, marijuana) predicted all three levels of binge and extreme binge drinking. Conclusions Binge drinking at the traditionally defined 5+ drinking level was common among high school seniors representative of all 12th graders in the contiguous U.S. A significant segment of students also reported extreme binge drinking at levels two and three times higher. These data suggest the importance of assessing multiple levels of binge drinking behavior and their predictors among adolescents in order to target effective screening and intervention efforts. PMID:24042318

The Relationships Between the Trends of Mean and Extreme Precipitation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zhou, Yaping; Lau, William K.-M.

2017-01-01

This study provides a better understanding of the relationships between the trends of mean and extreme precipitation in two observed precipitation data sets: the Climate Prediction Center Unified daily precipitation data set and the Global Precipitation Climatology Program (GPCP) pentad data set. The study employs three kinds of definitions of extreme precipitation: (1) percentile, (2) standard deviation and (3) generalize extreme value (GEV) distribution analysis for extreme events based on local statistics. Relationship between trends in the mean and extreme precipitation is identified with a novel metric, i.e. area aggregated matching ratio (AAMR) computed on regional and global scales. Generally, more (less) extreme events are likely to occur in regions with a positive (negative) mean trend. The match between the mean and extreme trends deteriorates for increasingly heavy precipitation events. The AAMR is higher in regions with negative mean trends than in regions with positive mean trends, suggesting a higher likelihood of severe dry events, compared with heavy rain events in a warming climate. AAMR is found to be higher in tropics and oceans than in the extratropics and land regions, reflecting a higher degree of randomness and more important dynamical rather than thermodynamical contributions of extreme events in the latter regions.

Influence of hurricane-related activity on North American extreme precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barlow, Mathew

2010-05-01

Individual hurricanes and their remnants can produce exceptionally intense rainfall, and the associated flooding, even independent of storm surge, is one of the leading causes of hurricane-related death in the U.S. Despite the catastrophic societal costs of hurricanes and the considerable recent attention to possible trends in strength and number, little is known about the general contribution of hurricane-related activity to extreme precipitation over North America and the underlying dynamical mechanisms. Here we show, based on a 25-year observational analysis, that there are important contributions to the occurrence of extreme precipitation events over more than half of North America, including a pronounced signal over northern and inland areas, associated with an average span of influence that extends to several hundred kilometers. Large-scale vertical velocity, maximum wind speed, and tropical/extratropical character are important factors in the strength and range of influence, and the pattern of influence depends on whether an absolute or relative measure of precipitation is considered. Associated changes in stability, moisture, and vertical motion are analyzed to investigate the dynamics of the influence: the largest changes are in vertical motion, with the hurricane-related activity bringing deep tropical values even to inland and high latitude areas, consistent with the occurrence of very heavy, tropical-like precipitation. While the maximum contribution of hurricane-related activity to mean precipitation is generally less than 25% even for the most-affected coastal regions, the contribution to extreme events is much larger: well over 50% for several regions and exceeding 25% for large swaths of the continent. Typical track density plots do not capture the activity's influence on extreme precipitation.

INVESTIGATIONS IN PANAMA DURING THE SUMMER OF 1930.

PubMed

Faust, E C

1931-01-09

The material obtained from these investigations has indicated to the writer that the area studied offers extremely valuable opportunities for helminthological and protozoological work. The data obtained will serve as the basis for several important papers which will be published in the near future.

Food Vulnerability and Alluvial Farming for Food Security in Central Dry Zone Area of Myanmar

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boori, M. S.; Choudhary, K.; Evers, M.; Kupriyanov, A.

2017-10-01

The central dry zone area of Myanmar is the most water stressed and also one of the most food insecure regions in the country. In the Dry Zone area, the total population is 10.1 million people in 54 townships, in which approximately 43 % live in below poverty line and 40-50 % of the rural population is landless. Agriculture is the most important economic sector in Myanmar as it is essential for national food security and a major source of livelihood for its people. In this region the adverse effects of climate change such as late or early onset of monsoon season, longer dry spells, erratic rainfall, increasing temperature, heavy rains, stronger typhoons, extreme spatial-temporal variability of rainfall, high intensities, limited rainfall events in the growing season, heat stress, drought, flooding, sea water intrusion, land degradation, desertification, deforestation and other natural disasters are believed to be a major constraint to food insecurity. For food vulnerability, we use following indicators: slope, precipitation, vegetation, soil, erosion, land degradation and harvest failure in ArcGIS software. The erosion is influenced by rainfall and slope, while land degradation is directly related to vegetation, drainage and soil. While harvest failure can be generate by rainfall and flood potential zones. Results show that around 45 % study area comes under very high erosion danger level, 70 % under average harvest failure, 59 % intermediate land degradation area and the overall around 45 % study area comes under insecure food vulnerability zone. Our analysis shows an increase in alluvial farming by 1745.33 km2 since 1988 to reduce the insecure food vulnerability. Food vulnerability map is also relevant to increased population and low income areas. The extreme climatic events are likely increase in frequency and magnitude of serious drought periods and extreme floods. Food insecurity is an important thing that must be reviewed because it relates to the lives of many people. This paper is helpful for identifying the areas of food needs in central dry zone area of Myanmar.

Mapping forest characteristics at fine resolution across large landscapes of the southeastern United States using NAIP imagery and FIA field plot data

Treesearch

John Hogland; Nathaniel Anderson; Joseph St. Peter; Jason Drake; Paul Medley

2018-01-01

Accurate information is important for effective management of natural resources. In the field of forestry, field measurements of forest characteristics such as species composition, basal area, and stand density are used to inform and evaluate management activities. Quantifying these metrics accurately across large landscapes in a meaningful way is extremely important...

Climate extremes, land–climate feedbacks and land-use forcing at 1.5°C

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Wartenburger, Richard; Guillod, Benoit P.

This article investigates projected changes in temperature and water cycle extremes at 1.5°C global warming, and highlights the role of land processes and land-use changes (LUC) for these projections. We provide new comparisons of changes in climate at 1.5°C vs 2°C based on empirical sampling analyses of transient simulations vs simulations from the 'Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts' (HAPPI) multi-model experiment. The two approaches yield overall similar results regarding changes in climate extremes on land, and reveal a substantial difference in regional extremes occurrence at 1.5°C vs 2°C. Land processes mediated through soil moisture feedbacks andmore » land-use forcing play a major role for projected changes in extremes at 1.5°C in most mid-latitude regions, including densely populated areas in North America, Europe and Asia. This has important implications for low-emissions scenarios derived from Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs), which include major LUC in ambitious mitigation pathways (e.g. associated with increased bioenergy use), but are also shown to differ in the simulated LUC patterns. Biogeophysical effects from LUC are not considered in the development of IAM scenarios, but play an important role for projected regional changes in climate extremes, and are thus of high relevance for sustainable development pathways.« less

Climate extremes, land–climate feedbacks and land-use forcing at 1.5°C

DOE PAGES

Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Wartenburger, Richard; Guillod, Benoit P.; ...

2018-04-02

Here, this article investigates projected changes in temperature and water cycle extremes at 1.5°C of global warming, and highlights the role of land processes and land-use changes (LUCs) for these projections. We provide new comparisons of changes in climate at 1.5°C versus 2°C based on empirical sampling analyses of transient simulations versus simulations from the ‘Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts’ (HAPPI) multi-model experiment. The two approaches yield similar overall results regarding changes in climate extremes on land, and reveal a substantial difference in the occurrence of regional extremes at 1.5°C versus 2°C. Land processes mediated throughmore » soil moisture feedbacks and land-use forcing play a major role for projected changes in extremes at 1.5°C in most mid-latitude regions, including densely populated areas in North America, Europe and Asia. This has important implications for low-emissions scenarios derived from integrated assessment models (IAMs), which include major LUCs in ambitious mitigation pathways (e.g. associated with increased bioenergy use), but are also shown to differ in the simulated LUC patterns. Biogeophysical effects from LUCs are not considered in the development of IAM scenarios, but play an important role for projected regional changes in climate extremes, and are thus of high relevance for sustainable development pathways.« less

Climate extremes, land–climate feedbacks and land-use forcing at 1.5°C

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Wartenburger, Richard; Guillod, Benoit P.

Here, this article investigates projected changes in temperature and water cycle extremes at 1.5°C of global warming, and highlights the role of land processes and land-use changes (LUCs) for these projections. We provide new comparisons of changes in climate at 1.5°C versus 2°C based on empirical sampling analyses of transient simulations versus simulations from the ‘Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts’ (HAPPI) multi-model experiment. The two approaches yield similar overall results regarding changes in climate extremes on land, and reveal a substantial difference in the occurrence of regional extremes at 1.5°C versus 2°C. Land processes mediated throughmore » soil moisture feedbacks and land-use forcing play a major role for projected changes in extremes at 1.5°C in most mid-latitude regions, including densely populated areas in North America, Europe and Asia. This has important implications for low-emissions scenarios derived from integrated assessment models (IAMs), which include major LUCs in ambitious mitigation pathways (e.g. associated with increased bioenergy use), but are also shown to differ in the simulated LUC patterns. Biogeophysical effects from LUCs are not considered in the development of IAM scenarios, but play an important role for projected regional changes in climate extremes, and are thus of high relevance for sustainable development pathways.« less

Spatial variability of extreme rainfall at radar subpixel scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peleg, Nadav; Marra, Francesco; Fatichi, Simone; Paschalis, Athanasios; Molnar, Peter; Burlando, Paolo

2018-01-01

Extreme rainfall is quantified in engineering practice using Intensity-Duration-Frequency curves (IDF) that are traditionally derived from rain-gauges and more recently also from remote sensing instruments, such as weather radars. These instruments measure rainfall at different spatial scales: rain-gauge samples rainfall at the point scale while weather radar averages precipitation on a relatively large area, generally around 1 km2. As such, a radar derived IDF curve is representative of the mean areal rainfall over a given radar pixel and neglects the within-pixel rainfall variability. In this study, we quantify subpixel variability of extreme rainfall by using a novel space-time rainfall generator (STREAP model) that downscales in space the rainfall within a given radar pixel. The study was conducted using a unique radar data record (23 years) and a very dense rain-gauge network in the Eastern Mediterranean area (northern Israel). Radar-IDF curves, together with an ensemble of point-based IDF curves representing the radar subpixel extreme rainfall variability, were developed fitting Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distributions to annual rainfall maxima. It was found that the mean areal extreme rainfall derived from the radar underestimate most of the extreme values computed for point locations within the radar pixel (on average, ∼70%). The subpixel variability of rainfall extreme was found to increase with longer return periods and shorter durations (e.g. from a maximum variability of 10% for a return period of 2 years and a duration of 4 h to 30% for 50 years return period and 20 min duration). For the longer return periods, a considerable enhancement of extreme rainfall variability was found when stochastic (natural) climate variability was taken into account. Bounding the range of the subpixel extreme rainfall derived from radar-IDF can be of major importance for different applications that require very local estimates of rainfall extremes.

Finite-volume scheme for anisotropic diffusion

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Es, Bram van, E-mail: bramiozo@gmail.com; FOM Institute DIFFER, Dutch Institute for Fundamental Energy Research, The Netherlands"1; Koren, Barry

In this paper, we apply a special finite-volume scheme, limited to smooth temperature distributions and Cartesian grids, to test the importance of connectivity of the finite volumes. The area of application is nuclear fusion plasma with field line aligned temperature gradients and extreme anisotropy. We apply the scheme to the anisotropic heat-conduction equation, and compare its results with those of existing finite-volume schemes for anisotropic diffusion. Also, we introduce a general model adaptation of the steady diffusion equation for extremely anisotropic diffusion problems with closed field lines.

Observed and simulated hydrologic response for a first-order catchment during extreme rainfall 3 years after wildfire disturbance

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ebel, Brian A.; Rengers, Francis K.; Tucker, Gregory E.

2016-01-01

Hydrologic response to extreme rainfall in disturbed landscapes is poorly understood because of the paucity of measurements. A unique opportunity presented itself when extreme rainfall in September 2013 fell on a headwater catchment (i.e., <1 ha) in Colorado, USA that had previously been burned by a wildfire in 2010. We compared measurements of soil-hydraulic properties, soil saturation from subsurface sensors, and estimated peak runoff during the extreme rainfall with numerical simulations of runoff generation and subsurface hydrologic response during this event. The simulations were used to explore differences in runoff generation between the wildfire-affected headwater catchment, a simulated unburned case, and for uniform versus spatially variable parameterizations of soil-hydraulic properties that affect infiltration and runoff generation in burned landscapes. Despite 3 years of elapsed time since the 2010 wildfire, observations and simulations pointed to substantial surface runoff generation in the wildfire-affected headwater catchment by the infiltration-excess mechanism while no surface runoff was generated in the unburned case. The surface runoff generation was the result of incomplete recovery of soil-hydraulic properties in the burned area, suggesting recovery takes longer than 3 years. Moreover, spatially variable soil-hydraulic property parameterizations produced longer duration but lower peak-flow infiltration-excess runoff, compared to uniform parameterization, which may have important hillslope sediment export and geomorphologic implications during long duration, extreme rainfall. The majority of the simulated surface runoff in the spatially variable cases came from connected near-channel contributing areas, which was a substantially smaller contributing area than the uniform simulations.

Extreme heat reduces and shifts United States premium wine production in the 21st century

PubMed Central

White, M. A.; Diffenbaugh, N. S.; Jones, G. V.; Pal, J. S.; Giorgi, F.

2006-01-01

Premium wine production is limited to regions climatically conducive to growing grapes with balanced composition and varietal typicity. Three central climatic conditions are required: (i) adequate heat accumulation; (ii) low risk of severe frost damage; and (iii) the absence of extreme heat. Although wine production is possible in an extensive climatic range, the highest-quality wines require a delicate balance among these three conditions. Although historical and projected average temperature changes are known to influence global wine quality, the potential future response of wine-producing regions to spatially heterogeneous changes in extreme events is largely unknown. Here, by using a high-resolution regional climate model forced by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emission Scenarios A2 greenhouse gas emission scenario, we estimate that potential premium winegrape production area in the conterminous United States could decline by up to 81% by the late 21st century. While increases in heat accumulation will shift wine production to warmer climate varieties and/or lower-quality wines, and frost constraints will be reduced, increases in the frequency of extreme hot days (>35°C) in the growing season are projected to eliminate winegrape production in many areas of the United States. Furthermore, grape and wine production will likely be restricted to a narrow West Coast region and the Northwest and Northeast, areas currently facing challenges related to excess moisture. Our results not only imply large changes for the premium wine industry, but also highlight the importance of incorporating fine-scale processes and extreme events in climate-change impact studies. PMID:16840557

Simulating the effect of climate extremes on groundwater flow through a lakebed.

PubMed

Virdi, Makhan L; Lee, Terrie M; Swancar, Amy; Niswonger, Richard G

2013-03-01

Groundwater exchanges with lakes resulting from cyclical wet and dry climate extremes maintain lake levels in the environment in ways that are not well understood, in part because they remain difficult to simulate. To better understand the atypical groundwater interactions with lakes caused by climatic extremes, an original conceptual approach is introduced using MODFLOW-2005 and a kinematic-wave approximation to variably saturated flow that allows lake size and position in the basin to change while accurately representing the daily lake volume and three-dimensional variably saturated groundwater flow responses in the basin. Daily groundwater interactions are simulated for a calibrated lake basin in Florida over a decade that included historic wet and dry departures from the average rainfall. The divergent climate extremes subjected nearly 70% of the maximum lakebed area and 75% of the maximum shoreline perimeter to both groundwater inflow and lake leakage. About half of the lakebed area subject to flow reversals also went dry. A flow-through pattern present for 73% of the decade caused net leakage from the lake 80% of the time. Runoff from the saturated lake margin offset the groundwater deficit only about half of that time. A centripetal flow pattern present for 6% of the decade was important for maintaining the lake stage and generated 30% of all net groundwater inflow. Pumping effects superimposed on dry climate extremes induced the least frequent but most cautionary flow pattern with leakage from over 90% of the actual lakebed area. Published 2012. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Wartenburger, Richard; Guillod, Benoit

This article investigates projected changes in temperature and water cycle extremes at 1.5°C global warming, and highlights the role of land processes and land-use changes (LUC) for these projections. We provide new comparisons of changes in climate at 1.5°C vs 2°C based on empirical sampling analyses of transient simulations vs simulations from the “Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts” (HAPPI) multi-model experiment. The two approaches yield overall similar results regarding changes in climate extremes on land, and reveal a substantial difference in regional extremes occurrence at 1.5°C vs 2°C. Land processes mediated through soil moisture feedbacks andmore » land-use forcing play a major role for projected changes in extremes at 1.5°C in most mid-latitude regions, including densely populated areas in North America, Europe and Asia. This has important implications for low-emissions scenarios derived from Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs), which include major LUC in ambitious mitigation pathways (e.g. associated with increased bioenergy use), but are also shown to differ in the simulated LUC patterns. Biogeophysical effects from LUC are not considered in the development of IAM scenarios, but play an important role for projected regional changes in climate extremes, and are thus of high relevance for sustainable development pathways.« less

Bunched black (and grouped grey) swans: Dissipative and non-dissipative models of correlated extreme fluctuations in complex geosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Watkins, N. W.

2013-01-01

I review the hierarchy of approaches to complex systems, focusing particularly on stochastic equations. I discuss how the main models advocated by the late Benoit Mandelbrot fit into this classification, and how they continue to contribute to cross-disciplinary approaches to the increasingly important problems of correlated extreme events and unresolved scales. The ideas have broad importance, with applications ranging across science areas as diverse as the heavy tailed distributions of intense rainfall in hydrology, after which Mandelbrot named the "Noah effect"; the problem of correlated runs of dry summers in climate, after which the "Joseph effect" was named; and the intermittent, bursty, volatility seen in finance and fluid turbulence.

Using enteric pathogens to assess sources of fecal contamination in the silurian dolomite aquifer: preliminary results

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The fractured Silurian dolomite aquifer is an important, but vulnerable, source of drinking water in northeast Wisconsin. Areas underlain by the Silurian dolomite aquifer are extremely vulnerable to groundwater contamination from various land-use activities, especially the disposal of human wastewat...

The Potential of Free-Choice Learning for Environmental Participation in Greece

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Skanavis, Constantina; Sakellari, Maria; Petreniti, Vassiliki

2005-01-01

Citizen participation in environmental decision-making is of extreme importance in securing a good quality of life. Local communities know best what alternate solutions should be implemented for appropriate management of their area. This paper presents findings about the environmental characteristics of various Greek citizens' groups, where…

Reactive Attachment Disorder: Implications for School Readiness and School Functioning

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schwartz, Eric; Davis, Andrew S.

2006-01-01

School readiness and functioning in children diagnosed with Reactive Attachment Disorder (RAD) are important issues due to the dramatic impact RAD has on multiple areas of development. The negative impact of impaired or disrupted early relationships, characterized by extreme neglect, abuse, parental mental illness, domestic violence, and repeated…

Internet Abuse and Internet Addiction in the Workplace

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Griffiths, Mark

2010-01-01

Purpose: This paper seeks to overview the issues, concerns and challenges relating to internet abuse and internet addiction in the workplace. Design/methodology/approach: Using psychological literature, the paper outlines a number of important and inter-related areas including brief overviews of internet abuse, and the most extreme form of…

Forces and Holes in Liquid Surfaces and Soap Films: A Simple Measurement of a Not-So-Simple Effect

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gratton, Luigi M.; Oss, Stefano

2004-01-01

In this article we show how to verify that in a fluid surface or film the value of the surface tension (i.e. the free energy per unit area) does not depend on the area of the film itself. The experimental evidence discussed can be obtained extremely simply yet with great accuracy. This experiment is important in that it leads to a deeper…

The role of the reef-dune system in coastal protection in Puerto Morelos (Mexico)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Franklin, Gemma L.; Torres-Freyermuth, Alec; Medellin, Gabriela; Allende-Arandia, María Eugenia; Appendini, Christian M.

2018-04-01

Reefs and sand dunes are critical morphological features providing natural coastal protection. Reefs dissipate around 90 % of the incident wave energy through wave breaking, whereas sand dunes provide the final natural barrier against coastal flooding. The storm impact on coastal areas with these features depends on the relative elevation of the extreme water levels with respect to the sand dune morphology. However, despite the importance of barrier reefs and dunes in coastal protection, poor management practices have degraded these ecosystems, increasing their vulnerability to coastal flooding. The present study aims to theoretically investigate the role of the reef-dune system in coastal protection under current climatic conditions at Puerto Morelos, located in the Mexican Caribbean Sea, using a widely validated nonlinear non-hydrostatic numerical model (SWASH). Wave hindcast information, tidal level, and a measured beach profile of the reef-dune system in Puerto Morelos are employed to estimate extreme runup and the storm impact scale for current and theoretical scenarios. The numerical results show the importance of including the storm surge when predicting extreme water levels and also show that ecosystem degradation has important implications for coastal protection against storms with return periods of less than 10 years. The latter highlights the importance of conservation of the system as a mitigation measure to decrease coastal vulnerability and infrastructure losses in coastal areas in the short to medium term. Furthermore, the results are used to evaluate the applicability of runup parameterisations for beaches to reef environments. Numerical analysis of runup dynamics suggests that runup parameterisations for reef environments can be improved by including the fore reef slope. Therefore, future research to develop runup parameterisations incorporating reef geometry features (e.g. reef crest elevation, reef lagoon width, fore reef slope) is warranted.

Compound summer temperature and precipitation extremes over central Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sedlmeier, Katrin; Feldmann, H.; Schädler, G.

2018-02-01

Reliable knowledge of the near-future climate change signal of extremes is important for adaptation and mitigation strategies. Especially compound extremes, like heat and drought occurring simultaneously, may have a greater impact on society than their univariate counterparts and have recently become an active field of study. In this paper, we use a 12-member ensemble of high-resolution (7 km) regional climate simulations with the regional climate model COSMO-CLM over central Europe to analyze the climate change signal and its uncertainty for compound heat and drought extremes in summer by two different measures: one describing absolute (i.e., number of exceedances of absolute thresholds like hot days), the other relative (i.e., number of exceedances of time series intrinsic thresholds) compound extreme events. Changes are assessed between a reference period (1971-2000) and a projection period (2021-2050). Our findings show an increase in the number of absolute compound events for the whole investigation area. The change signal of relative extremes is more region-dependent, but there is a strong signal change in the southern and eastern parts of Germany and the neighboring countries. Especially the Czech Republic shows strong change in absolute and relative extreme events.

European temperature responses to blocking and ridge regional patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sousa, Pedro M.; Trigo, Ricardo M.; Barriopedro, David; Soares, Pedro M. M.; Santos, João A.

2018-01-01

Blocking occurrence and its impacts on European temperature have been studied in the last decade. However, most previous studies on blocking impacts have focused on winter only, disregarding its fingerprint in summer and differences with other synoptic patterns that also trigger temperature extremes. In this work, we provide a clear distinction between high-latitude blocking and sub-tropical ridges occurring in three sectors of the Euro-Atlantic region, describing their climatology and consequent impacts on European temperature during both winter and summer. Winter blocks (ridges) are generally associated to colder (warmer) than average conditions over large regions of Europe, in some areas with anomalies larger than 5 °C, particularly for the patterns occurring in the Atlantic and Central European sectors. During summer, there is a more regional response characterized by above average temperature for both blocking and ridge patterns, especially those occurring in continental areas, although negative temperature anomalies persist in southernmost areas during blocking. An objective analysis of the different forcing mechanisms associated to each considered weather regime has been performed, quantifying the importance of the following processes in causing the temperature anomalies: horizontal advection, vertical advection and diabatic heating. While during winter advection processes tend to be more relevant to explain temperature responses, in summer radiative heating under enhanced insolation plays a crucial role for both blocking and ridges. Finally, the changes in the distributions of seasonal temperature and in the frequencies of extreme temperature indices were also examined for specific areas of Europe. Winter blocking and ridge patterns are key drivers in the occurrence of regional cold and warm extreme temperatures, respectively. In summer, they are associated with substantial changes in the frequency of extremely warm days, but with different signatures in southern Europe. We conclude that there has been some misusage of the traditional blocking definition in the attribution of extreme events.

Relative importance of impervious area, drainage density, width function, and subsurface storm drainage on flood runoff from an urbanized catchment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ogden, Fred L.; Raj Pradhan, Nawa; Downer, Charles W.; Zahner, Jon A.

2011-12-01

The literature contains contradictory conclusions regarding the relative effects of urbanization on peak flood flows due to increases in impervious area, drainage density and width function, and the addition of subsurface storm drains. We used data from an urbanized catchment, the 14.3 km2 Dead Run watershed near Baltimore, Maryland, USA, and the physics-based gridded surface/subsurface hydrologic analysis (GSSHA) model to examine the relative effect of each of these factors on flood peaks, runoff volumes, and runoff production efficiencies. GSSHA was used because the model explicitly includes the spatial variability of land-surface and hydrodynamic parameters, including subsurface storm drains. Results indicate that increases in drainage density, particularly increases in density from low values, produce significant increases in the flood peaks. For a fixed land-use and rainfall input, the flood magnitude approaches an upper limit regardless of the increase in the channel drainage density. Changes in imperviousness can have a significant effect on flood peaks for both moderately extreme and extreme storms. For an extreme rainfall event with a recurrence interval in excess of 100 years, imperviousness is relatively unimportant in terms of runoff efficiency and volume, but can affect the peak flow depending on rainfall rate. Changes to the width function affect flood peaks much more than runoff efficiency, primarily in the case of lower density drainage networks with less impermeable area. Storm drains increase flood peaks, but are overwhelmed during extreme rainfall events when they have a negligible effect. Runoff in urbanized watersheds with considerable impervious area shows a marked sensitivity to rainfall rate. This sensitivity explains some of the contradictory findings in the literature.

Climate services for an urban area (Baia Mare City, Romania) with a focus on climate extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sima, Mihaela; Micu, Dana; Dragota, Carmen-Sofia; Mihalache, Sorin

2013-04-01

The Baia Mare Urban System is located in the north-western part of Romania, with around 200,000 inhabitants and represents one of the most important former mining areas in the country, whose socioeconomic profile and environmental conditions have greatly changed over the last 20 years during the transition and post-transition period. Currently the mining is closed in the area, but the historical legacy of this activity has implications in terms of economic growth, social and cultural developments and environmental quality. Baia Mare city lies in an extended depression, particularly sheltered by the mountain and hilly regions located in the north and respectively, in the south-south-eastern part of it, which explains the high frequency of calm conditions and low airstream channeling occurrences. This urban system has a typically moderate temperate-continental climate, subject to frequent westerly airflows (moist), which moderate the thermal regime (without depicting severe extremes, both positive and negative) and enhance the precipitation one (entailing a greater frequency of wet extremes). During the reference period (1971-2000), the climate change signal in the area is rather weak and not statistically significant. However, since the mid 1980s, the warming signal became more evident from the observational data (Baia Mare station), showing a higher frequency of dry spells and positive extremes. The modelling experiments covering the 2021-2050 time horizon using regional (RM5.1/HadRM3Q0/RCA3) and global (ARPEGE/HadCM3Q0/BCM/ECHAM5) circulation models carried out within the ECLISE FP7 project suggest an ongoing temperature rise, associated to an intensification of temperature and precipitation extremes. In this context, the aim of this study was to evaluate how the local authorities consider and include climate change in their activity, as well as in the development plans (e.g. territorial, economic and social development plans). Individual interviews have been undertaken with key institutions focusing on environmental, health and urban development issues. The survey was conducted in order to identify the local authorities' perception and needs on climate change information and the importance of climate services for the city and institution's activity. Generally, the results suggest that the selected institutions are poorly aware of the potential impacts of climate change and associated extremes in the area, but they showed a real interest for future climate estimations necessary to undertake reliable adaptation measures. At institutional level, do not exist specialized departments (job positions) to tackle or manage climate information and climate-related aspects, this not being a pressing or priority issue for the city. The climate services aspects are seen with interest mainly in supplying climate scenarios and models for a relatively short term (next 10 or 15 years), the climate information being in this way included in the local planning strategies.

Extreme precipitation depths for Texas, excluding the Trans-Pecos region

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lanning-Rush, Jennifer; Asquith, William H.; Slade, Raymond M.

1998-01-01

Storm durations of 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6 days were investigated for this report. The extreme precipitation depth for a particular area is estimated from an “extreme precipitation curve” (an upper limit or envelope curve developed from graphs of extreme precipitation depths for each climatic region). The extreme precipitation curves were determined using precipitation depth-duration information from a subset (24 “extreme” storms) of 213 “notable” storms documented throughout Texas. The extreme precipitation curves can be used to estimate extreme precipitation depth for a particular area. The extreme precipitation depth represents a limiting depth, which can provide useful comparative information for more quantitative analyses.

Focus issue on the Study of Matter at Extreme Conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saini, Naurang L.; Saxena, Surendra K.; Bansil, Arun

2015-09-01

Study of matter at extreme conditions encompasses many different approaches for understanding the physics, chemistry and materials science underlying processes, products and technologies important for society. Although extreme conditions have been associated traditionally with research in areas of geology, mineral and earth sciences, the field has expanded in the recent years to include work on energy related materials and quantum functional materials from hard to soft matter. With the motivation to engage a large number of scientists with various disciplinary interests, ranging from physics, chemistry, geophysics to materials science, the study of matter at extreme conditions has been the theme of a series of conferences hosted by the High Pressure Science Society of America (HiPSSA) and the Center for the Study of Matter at Extreme Conditions (CeSMEC) of Florida International University (FIU), Miami. These SMEC (Study of Matter at Extreme Conditions) conferences are aimed at providing a unique platform for leading researchers to meet and share cutting-edge developments, and to bridge established fields under this interdisciplinary umbrella for research on materials. The seventh meeting in the SMEC series was held during March 23-30, 2013, while sailing from Miami to the Caribbean Islands, and concluded with great enthusiasm.

Climate and topography explain range sizes of terrestrial vertebrates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Yiming; Li, Xianping; Sandel, Brody; Blank, David; Liu, Zetian; Liu, Xuan; Yan, Shaofei

2016-05-01

Identifying the factors that influence range sizes of species provides important insight into the distribution of biodiversity, and is crucial for predicting shifts in species ranges in response to climate change. Current climate (for example, climate variability and climate extremes), long-term climate change, evolutionary age, topographic heterogeneity, land area and species traits such as physiological thermal limits, dispersal ability, annual fecundity and body size have been shown to influence range size. Yet, few studies have examined the generality of each of these factors among different taxa, or have simultaneously evaluated the strength of relationships between range size and these factors at a global scale. We quantify contributions of these factors to range sizes of terrestrial vertebrates (mammals, birds and reptiles) at a global scale. We found that large-ranged species experience greater monthly extremes of maximum or minimum temperature within their ranges, or occur in areas with higher long-term climate velocity and lower topographic heterogeneity or lower precipitation seasonality. Flight ability, body mass and continent width are important only for particular taxa. Our results highlight the importance of climate and topographic context in driving range size variation. The results suggest that small-range species may be vulnerable to climate change and should be the focus of conservation efforts.

Some Theoretical Considerations Influencing Educational Finance in the 1980's.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Atherton, Peter J.

The major problem to be faced in Canada in the next decade is resource allocation. Administrators must make conscious efforts to distinguish between changes in price levels that are the effect of inflationary pressures and increases in costs that are the result of changes in quality or quantity of inputs. A second area extremely important in…

Short-term pain for long-term gain: seagrass communities increase short-term extremes and long-term offset of CO2 under future ocean acidification

EPA Science Inventory

The impacts of ocean acidification in nearshore estuarine environments remain poorly characterized, despite these areas being some of the most ecologically, economically, and culturally important habitats in the global ocean. Here, we quantify how rising atmospheric CO2 from 1765...

Sea level oscillations over minute timescales: a global perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vilibic, Ivica; Sepic, Jadranka

2016-04-01

Sea level oscillations occurring over minutes to a few hours are an important contributor to sea level extremes, and a knowledge on their behaviour is essential for proper quantification of coastal marine hazards. Tsunamis, meteotsunamis, infra-gravity waves and harbour oscillations may even dominate sea level extremes in certain areas and thus pose a great danger for humans and coastal infrastructure. Aside for tsunamis, which are, due to their enormous impact to the coastlines, a well-researched phenomena, the importance of other high-frequency oscillations to the sea level extremes is still underrated, as no systematic long-term measurements have been carried out at a minute timescales. Recently, Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC) established Sea Level Monitoring Facility portal (http://www.ioc-sealevelmonitoring.org), making 1-min sea level data publicly available for several hundred tide gauge sites in the World Ocean. Thereafter, a global assessment of oscillations over tsunami timescales become possible; however, the portal contains raw sea level data only, being unchecked for spikes, shifts, drifts and other malfunctions of instruments. We present a quality assessment of these data, estimates of sea level variances and contributions of high-frequency processes to the extremes throughout the World Ocean. This is accompanied with assessment of atmospheric conditions and processes which generate intense high-frequency oscillations.

Climate extremes, land–climate feedbacks and land-use forcing at 1.5°C

PubMed Central

Wartenburger, Richard; Guillod, Benoit P.; Hirsch, Annette L.; Vogel, Martha M.; Brovkin, Victor; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Schaller, Nathalie; Boysen, Lena; Calvin, Katherine V.; Doelman, Jonathan; Greve, Peter; Havlik, Petr; Humpenöder, Florian; Krisztin, Tamas; Mitchell, Daniel; Popp, Alexander; Riahi, Keywan; Rogelj, Joeri; Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich; Sillmann, Jana; Stehfest, Elke

2018-01-01

This article investigates projected changes in temperature and water cycle extremes at 1.5°C of global warming, and highlights the role of land processes and land-use changes (LUCs) for these projections. We provide new comparisons of changes in climate at 1.5°C versus 2°C based on empirical sampling analyses of transient simulations versus simulations from the ‘Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts’ (HAPPI) multi-model experiment. The two approaches yield similar overall results regarding changes in climate extremes on land, and reveal a substantial difference in the occurrence of regional extremes at 1.5°C versus 2°C. Land processes mediated through soil moisture feedbacks and land-use forcing play a major role for projected changes in extremes at 1.5°C in most mid-latitude regions, including densely populated areas in North America, Europe and Asia. This has important implications for low-emissions scenarios derived from integrated assessment models (IAMs), which include major LUCs in ambitious mitigation pathways (e.g. associated with increased bioenergy use), but are also shown to differ in the simulated LUC patterns. Biogeophysical effects from LUCs are not considered in the development of IAM scenarios, but play an important role for projected regional changes in climate extremes, and are thus of high relevance for sustainable development pathways. This article is part of the theme issue ‘The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels'. PMID:29610382

Climate extremes, land-climate feedbacks and land-use forcing at 1.5°C.

PubMed

Seneviratne, Sonia I; Wartenburger, Richard; Guillod, Benoit P; Hirsch, Annette L; Vogel, Martha M; Brovkin, Victor; van Vuuren, Detlef P; Schaller, Nathalie; Boysen, Lena; Calvin, Katherine V; Doelman, Jonathan; Greve, Peter; Havlik, Petr; Humpenöder, Florian; Krisztin, Tamas; Mitchell, Daniel; Popp, Alexander; Riahi, Keywan; Rogelj, Joeri; Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich; Sillmann, Jana; Stehfest, Elke

2018-05-13

This article investigates projected changes in temperature and water cycle extremes at 1.5°C of global warming, and highlights the role of land processes and land-use changes (LUCs) for these projections. We provide new comparisons of changes in climate at 1.5°C versus 2°C based on empirical sampling analyses of transient simulations versus simulations from the 'Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts' (HAPPI) multi-model experiment. The two approaches yield similar overall results regarding changes in climate extremes on land, and reveal a substantial difference in the occurrence of regional extremes at 1.5°C versus 2°C. Land processes mediated through soil moisture feedbacks and land-use forcing play a major role for projected changes in extremes at 1.5°C in most mid-latitude regions, including densely populated areas in North America, Europe and Asia. This has important implications for low-emissions scenarios derived from integrated assessment models (IAMs), which include major LUCs in ambitious mitigation pathways (e.g. associated with increased bioenergy use), but are also shown to differ in the simulated LUC patterns. Biogeophysical effects from LUCs are not considered in the development of IAM scenarios, but play an important role for projected regional changes in climate extremes, and are thus of high relevance for sustainable development pathways.This article is part of the theme issue 'The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels'. © 2018 The Authors.

Climate extremes, land-climate feedbacks and land-use forcing at 1.5°C

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Wartenburger, Richard; Guillod, Benoit P.; Hirsch, Annette L.; Vogel, Martha M.; Brovkin, Victor; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Schaller, Nathalie; Boysen, Lena; Calvin, Katherine V.; Doelman, Jonathan; Greve, Peter; Havlik, Petr; Humpenöder, Florian; Krisztin, Tamas; Mitchell, Daniel; Popp, Alexander; Riahi, Keywan; Rogelj, Joeri; Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich; Sillmann, Jana; Stehfest, Elke

2018-05-01

This article investigates projected changes in temperature and water cycle extremes at 1.5°C of global warming, and highlights the role of land processes and land-use changes (LUCs) for these projections. We provide new comparisons of changes in climate at 1.5°C versus 2°C based on empirical sampling analyses of transient simulations versus simulations from the `Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts' (HAPPI) multi-model experiment. The two approaches yield similar overall results regarding changes in climate extremes on land, and reveal a substantial difference in the occurrence of regional extremes at 1.5°C versus 2°C. Land processes mediated through soil moisture feedbacks and land-use forcing play a major role for projected changes in extremes at 1.5°C in most mid-latitude regions, including densely populated areas in North America, Europe and Asia. This has important implications for low-emissions scenarios derived from integrated assessment models (IAMs), which include major LUCs in ambitious mitigation pathways (e.g. associated with increased bioenergy use), but are also shown to differ in the simulated LUC patterns. Biogeophysical effects from LUCs are not considered in the development of IAM scenarios, but play an important role for projected regional changes in climate extremes, and are thus of high relevance for sustainable development pathways. This article is part of the theme issue `The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels'.

Brachial artery protected by wrapped latissimus dorsi muscle flap in high voltage electrical injury

PubMed Central

Gencel, E.; Eser, C.; Kokacya, O.; Kesiktas, E.; Yavuz, M.

2016-01-01

Summary High voltage electrical injury can disrupt the vascular system and lead to extremity amputations. It is important to protect main vessels from progressive burn necrosis in order to salvage a limb. The brachial artery should be totally isolated from the burned area by a muscle flap to prevent vessel disruption. In this study, we report the use of a wrap-around latissimus dorsi muscle flap to protect a skeletonized brachial artery in a high voltage electrical injury in order to salvage the upper extremity and restore function. The flap wrapped around the exposed brachial artery segment and luminal status of the artery was assessed using magnetic resonance angiography. No vascular intervention was required. The flap survived completely with good elbow function. Extremity amputation was not encountered. This method using a latissimus dorsi flap allows the surgeon to protect the main upper extremity artery and reconstruct arm defects, which contributes to restoring arm function in high voltage electrical injury. PMID:28149236

Brachial artery protected by wrapped latissimus dorsi muscle flap in high voltage electrical injury.

PubMed

Gencel, E; Eser, C; Kokacya, O; Kesiktas, E; Yavuz, M

2016-06-30

High voltage electrical injury can disrupt the vascular system and lead to extremity amputations. It is important to protect main vessels from progressive burn necrosis in order to salvage a limb. The brachial artery should be totally isolated from the burned area by a muscle flap to prevent vessel disruption. In this study, we report the use of a wrap-around latissimus dorsi muscle flap to protect a skeletonized brachial artery in a high voltage electrical injury in order to salvage the upper extremity and restore function. The flap wrapped around the exposed brachial artery segment and luminal status of the artery was assessed using magnetic resonance angiography. No vascular intervention was required. The flap survived completely with good elbow function. Extremity amputation was not encountered. This method using a latissimus dorsi flap allows the surgeon to protect the main upper extremity artery and reconstruct arm defects, which contributes to restoring arm function in high voltage electrical injury.

Mountain Biking Injuries.

PubMed

Ansari, Majid; Nourian, Ruhollah; Khodaee, Morteza

With the increasing popularity of mountain biking, also known as off-road cycling, and the riders pushing the sport into extremes, there has been a corresponding increase in injury. Almost two thirds of acute injuries involve the upper extremities, and a similar proportion of overuse injuries affect the lower extremities. Mountain biking appears to be a high-risk sport for severe spine injuries. New trends of injury patterns are observed with popularity of mountain bike trail parks and freeride cycling. Using protective gear, improving technical proficiency, and physical fitness may somewhat decrease the risk of injuries. Simple modifications in bicycle-rider interface areas and with the bicycle (bike fit) also may decrease some overuse injuries. Bike fit provides the clinician with postural correction during the sport. In this review, we also discuss the importance of race-day management strategies and monitoring the injury trends.

Islands in the sea: extreme female natal site fidelity in the Australian sea lion, Neophoca cinerea.

PubMed

Campbell, R A; Gales, N J; Lento, G M; Baker, C S

2008-02-23

Pinnipeds (seals, fur seals, sea lions and walrus) form large breeding aggregations with females often remaining faithful to a natal site or area. In these cases, females are philopatric to regional areas on broad geographical scales of hundreds to thousands of kilometers. An investigation of variation in a control region sequence of mtDNA in the Australian sea lion (Neophoca cinerea) has shown a case of extreme female natal site fidelity that has resulted in almost fixed population differentiation across its range (PhiST=0.93). This high level of population subdivision over short geographical distances (approx. 60 km) is unparalleled in any social marine mammal and reflects the unique life-history traits of this rare species. The high level of population subdivision and exclusive female natal site fidelity has important ramifications for conservation management, and poses many interesting questions of both academic and applied interest.

Addressing extreme precipitation change under future climates in the Upper Yangtze River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Z.; Yuan, Z.; Gao, X.

2017-12-01

Investigating the impact of climate change on extreme precipitation accurately is of importance for application purposes such as flooding mitigation and urban drainage system design. In this paper, a systematical analysis framework to assess the impact of climate change on extreme precipitation events is developed and practiced in the Upper Yangtze River Basin (UYRB) in China. Firstly, the UYRB is gridded and five extreme precipitation indices (annual maximum 3- 5- 7- 15- and 30-day precipitation) are selected. Secondly, with observed precipitation from China's Ground Precipitation 0.5°×0.5° Gridded Dataset (V2.0) and simulated daily precipitation from ten general circulation models (GCMs) of CMIP5, A regionally efficient GCM is selected for each grid by the skill score (SS) method which maximizes the overlapped area of probability density functions of extreme precipitation indices between observations and simulations during the historical period. Then, simulations of assembled efficient GCMs are bias corrected by Equidistant Cumulative Distribution Function method. Finally, the impact of climate change on extreme precipitation is analyzed. The results show that: (1) the MRI-CGCM3 and MIROC-ESM perform better in the UYRB. There are 19.8 to 20.9% and 14.2 to 18.7% of all grids regard this two GCMs as regionally efficient GCM for the five indices, respectively. Moreover, the regionally efficient GCMs are spatially distributed. (2) The assembled GCM performs much better than any single GCM, with the SS>0.8 and SS>0.6 in more than 65 and 85 percent grids. (3) Under the RCP4.5 scenario, the extreme precipitation of 50-year and 100-year return period is projected to increase in most areas of the UYRB in the future period, with 55.0 to 61.3% of the UYRB increasing larger than 10 percent for the five indices. The changes are spatially and temporal distributed. The upstream region of the UYRB has a relatively significant increase compared to the downstream basin, while the increase for annual maximum 5- and 7-day precipitation are more significant than other indices. The results demonstrate the impact of climate change on extreme precipitation in the UYRB, which provides a support to manage the water resource in this area.

Regional extreme rainfalls observed globally with 17 years of the Tropical Precipitation Measurement Mission

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Takayabu, Yukari; Hamada, Atsushi; Mori, Yuki; Murayama, Yuki; Liu, Chuntao; Zipser, Edward

2015-04-01

While extreme rainfall has a huge impact upon human society, the characteristics of the extreme precipitation vary from region to region. Seventeen years of three dimensional precipitation measurements from the space-borne precipitation radar equipped with the Tropical Precipitation Measurement Mission satellite enabled us to describe the characteristics of regional extreme precipitation globally. Extreme rainfall statistics are based on rainfall events defined as a set of contiguous PR rainy pixels. Regional extreme rainfall events are defined as those in which maximum near-surface rainfall rates are higher than the corresponding 99.9th percentile in each 2.5degree x2.5degree horizontal resolution grid. First, regional extreme rainfall is characterized in terms of its intensity and event size. Regions of ''intense and extensive'' extreme rainfall are found mainly over oceans near coastal areas and are likely associated with tropical cyclones and convective systems associated with the establishment of monsoons. Regions of ''intense but less extensive'' extreme rainfall are distributed widely over land and maritime continents, probably related to afternoon showers and mesoscale convective systems. Regions of ''extensive but less intense'' extreme rainfall are found almost exclusively over oceans, likely associated with well-organized mesoscale convective systems and extratropical cyclones. Secondly, regional extremes in terms of surface rainfall intensity and those in terms of convection height are compared. Conventionally, extremely tall convection is considered to contribute the largest to the intense rainfall. Comparing probability density functions (PDFs) of 99th percentiles in terms of the near surface rainfall intensity in each regional grid and those in terms of the 40dBZ echo top heights, it is found that heaviest precipitation in the region is not associated with tallest systems, but rather with systems with moderate heights. Interestingly, this separation of extremely heavy precipitation from extremely tall convection is found to be quite universal, irrespective of regions. Rainfall characteristics and environmental conditions both indicate the importance of warm-rain processes in producing extreme rainfall rates. Thus it is demonstrated that, even in regions where severe convective storms are representative extreme weather events, the heaviest rainfall events are mostly associated with less intense convection. Third, the size effect of rainfall events on the precipitation intensity is investigated. Comparisons of normalized PDFs of foot-print size rainfall intensity for different sizes of rainfall events show that footprint-scale extreme rainfall becomes stronger as the rainfall events get larger. At the same time, stratiform ratio in area as well as in rainfall amount increases with the size, confirming larger sized features are more organized systems. After all, it is statistically shown that organization of precipitation not only brings about an increase in extreme volumetric rainfall but also an increase in probability of the satellite footprint scale extreme rainfall.

Extreme throat initial data set and horizon area-angular momentum inequality for axisymmetric black holes

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dain, Sergio; Max Planck Institute for Gravitational Physics

2010-11-15

We present a formula that relates the variations of the area of extreme throat initial data with the variation of an appropriate defined mass functional. From this expression we deduce that the first variation, with fixed angular momentum, of the area is zero and the second variation is positive definite evaluated at the extreme Kerr throat initial data. This indicates that the area of the extreme Kerr throat initial data is a minimum among this class of data. And hence the area of generic throat initial data is bounded from below by the angular momentum. Also, this result strongly suggestsmore » that the inequality between area and angular momentum holds for generic asymptotically flat axially symmetric black holes. As an application, we prove this inequality in the nontrivial family of spinning Bowen-York initial data.« less

GIS-based evaluation and spatial distribution characteristics of land degradation in Bijiang watershed.

PubMed

Zhao, Xiaoqing; Dai, Jinhua; Wang, Jianping

2013-01-01

Land degradation is one of the significant issues the human beings are confronted with, which has become a bottleneck of restricting the sustainable development of the regional society and economy. In order to ascertain the root causes contributed to the land degradation and characteristics of land degradation, Bijiang watershed, the most important Lead-Zinc mine area of Lanping county of Yunnan Province, was selected as the study area. One evaluation index system for land degradation that consists of 5 single factors(water-soil erosion intensity, geological disaster risk, cultivation intensity of arable land, pollution of heavy metals in soil and biodiversity deterioration) was established and 13 indicators were chosen, and the entropy method was adopted to assign weights to each single factor. By using the tools of Geographic Information System (GIS), the land degradation degree was evaluated and one spatial distribution map for land degradation was accomplished. In this study, the land of the whole watershed was divided into 4 types, including extremely-severe degradation area, severely-degraded area, moderately-degraded area and slightly-degraded area, and some solutions for ecological restoration and rehabilitation were also put forward in this study. The study results indicated that: (1) Water-soil erosion intension and pollution of heavy metals in soil have made greater contribution to the comprehensive land degradation in Bijiang watershed; (2) There is an apparent difference regarding land degradation degree in Bijiang watershed. The moderately-degraded area accounts for the most part in the region, which covers 79.66% of the whole watershed. The severely-degraded area accounts for 15.98% and the slightly-degraded regions and extremely severe degradation area accounts for 1.08% and 3.28% respectively; (3) There is an evident regularity of spatial distribution in land degradation in Bijiang watershed. The moderately-degraded areas mainly distribute in the most part of the mid-stream and down-stream, the slightly-degraded areas distribute in the mid-stream, the severely-degraded areas distribute in the upstream and south-west part of down-stream, the extremely severe degradation areas distribute in the east and middle part of the upstream; (4)From the administrative division viewpoint, the slightly-degraded areas primarily distribute in Jiancao township, Baishi town and Nuodeng town. The moderately-degraded areas distribute in Changxin township, Baofeng township, Jiancao township, Baishi town and Nuodeng town. The severely-degraded areas distribute in Jinding town, Baofeng township and Lajing town. The extremely severe degradation areas distribute in Jinding town. By connecting the spatial distribution mode for land degradation with other natural, economical elements, we drew a conclusion that the pollution in heavy metals in soil, serious water erosion and geological disasters are the main causes of the land degradation in Bijiang watershed.

Recent droughts and effect of climate change on climate extremes in the East African region.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mekonnen, Z. T.; Gebremichael, M.

2016-12-01

East Africa is a region that has been affected by droughts, floods, famine one too many times. 2015 was one of the worst droughts in the region in decades and created a food crisis in the region leading to 15 million people needing food and water assistance. In a region where the climate resilience of the society is low, understanding of the climate and how it's changing is very important. Unfortunately, only a few studies have been done in this area. In this study we looked at the recent droughts in the region and analyzed the trends in relation to historical data. A combination of remote sensing products like TRMM, GPM and MERRA were used in conjunction with gridded observed products like CPC as well as gauge observations to carry out the analysis. The second part of the analysis focused on how climate change will affect the climate extremes in the region focusing on precipitation, temperature and evapotranspiration. 20 selected GCMs from CMIP5 were used at a daily timescale to look at climate extremes. Changes in daily intensity of precipitation, seasonal shifts and total rainfall were analyzed for mid-century and end of the century RCP 6.0 scenario and compared to the historical figures. In addition, daily extreme temperature and evapotranspiration as well seasonal shifts were focuses of this study. Spatial variations were also shown to be important in understanding the changes. Even though studies have shown the total rainfall in the region didn't show a significant change in that region under climate change, seasonal shifts, extreme precipitation, extreme temperatures, prolonged droughts, and increase in evapotranspiration were observed in East Africa. In a region where population is expected to double by mid-century this extreme can put the lives of millions in danger. This study will be followed with another focusing on how these changes in extremes and distribution will affect the water resources in the region specifically the Nile.

Variation in catchment areas of Indiana bat (Myotis sodalis) hibernacula inferred from stable hydrogen (δ2H) isotope analysis.

Treesearch

E.R. Britzke; S.C. Loeb; C.S. Romanek; K.A. Hobson; M.J. Vonhof

2013-01-01

Understanding seasonal movements of bats is important for effective conservation efforts. Although female Indiana bats (Myotis sodalis Miller and Allen, 1928) have been documented to migrate >500 km, knowledge of their migratory patterns is still extremely limited. We used the relationship between latitude and stable hydrogen isotope ratio in bat hair (δ...

Insurance data as way to evaluate the performance of a sustainable urban drainage system (SUDS) in Augustenborg, Malmö

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sörensen, Johanna; Emilsson, Tobias

2017-04-01

Sustainable Urban Drainage Systems (SUDS) has been put forward as a concept to improve stormwater management in urban areas. The damage reduction due to reduced flooding and storm water detention during extreme events is one of many important features of SUDS. As extreme events are rare, few assessments have earlier been made to evaluate the risk reduction. So far, most assessments have been done by hydraulic modelling, rather than analyses based on data from real flood events. In 2014, Malmö was hit with an extreme rainfall event which led to severe flooding in most parts of the city. This event gave an opportunity to evaluate the efficiency of SUDS during extreme events. In this study, flood claim data were analysed to evaluate flood risk reduction by the SUDS system in Augustenborg. Flood claim data were collected from both an insurance company, as well as the water utility company of Malmö for 5 neighbourhoods in close proximity in Malmö. The study uses the Augustenborg neighbourhood as an example of a retrofitted neighbourhood with an open SUDS. Augustenborg (Malmö, Sweden) was retrofitted 15 years ago using a combination of hard infrastructure and naturebased solutions, to alleviate basement flooding, to reduce combined sewer overflows (CSO) and to increase the ecological and aesthetical values of the area. The introduction of ponds, channels and green roofs dramatically changed the appearance of the area and the more or less regular floods were stopped. Augustenborg and its sustainable drainage system was compared with five similar neighbourhoods nearby. The long-term development of reported insurance claims in the selected neighbourhoods showed a reduction of flooding in Augustenborg compared to the nearby areas. Pre- and post-installation data showed a direct effect of the refurbishment with SUDS. Even though a few properties were flooded in Augustenborg, it was shown that the SUDS performed successfully during the extreme storm event that was the most severe flooding in Malmö in modern history. In conclusion, the SUDS in Augustenborg, Malmö, has been efficient in flood reduction during minor as well as severe flood events.

The Physical Study of Atmospheric Luminous Anomalies and the SETV Hypothesis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Teodorani, M.

2002-04-01

On the basis of statistical calculations on galactic migration which bring the necessity of insertion of a new parameter inside the Drake formula, the work-hypothesis named SETV predicts that exogenous vehicles and/or probes may have reached the Solar System too, including Earth. The technology which is now available is able to allow sensing operations both in the extreme borders of the solar system and on our own planet. The possible presence of probes of possible extraterrestrial origin on our planet may be ascertained by using a network of sensing stations which are placed in critical areas. One of them is the norwegian area of Hessdalen, where the two scientific explorative missions of `Project EMBLA' have carried out measurements which demonstrate the existence of all the anomalies of the luminous phenomenon which is present there. At present nothing proves scientifically that our planet is being visited by alien intelligences, nevertheless the remarkable peculiarity which was learnt in some areas of recurrence demonstrate that the verified phenomenology, of extreme importance for fundamental physics, presents characteristics which deserve a further investigation with highly sophisticated instrumentation.

The climatic characteristics of extreme precipitations for short-term intervals in the watershed of Lake Maggiore

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saidi, Helmi; Ciampittiello, Marzia; Dresti, Claudia; Ghiglieri, Giorgio

2013-07-01

Alpine and Mediterranean areas are undergoing a profound change in the typology and distribution of rainfall. In particular, there has been an increase in consecutive non-rainy days, and an escalation of extreme rainy events. The climatic characteristic of extreme precipitations over short-term intervals is an object of study in the watershed of Lake Maggiore, the second largest freshwater basin in Italy (located in the north-west of the country) and an important resource for tourism, fishing and commercial flower growing. The historical extreme rainfall series with high-resolution from 5 to 45 min and above: 1, 2, 3, 6, 12 and 24 h collected at different gauges located at representative sites in the watershed of Lake Maggiore, have been computed to perform regional frequency analysis of annual maxima precipitation based on the L-moments approach, and to produce growth curves for different return-period rainfall events. Because of different rainfall-generating mechanisms in the watershed of Lake Maggiore such as elevation, no single parent distribution could be found for the entire study area. This paper concerns an investigation designed to give a first view of the temporal change and evolution of annual maxima precipitation, focusing particularly on both heavy and extreme events recorded at time intervals ranging from few minutes to 24 h and also to create and develop an extreme storm precipitation database, starting from historical sub-daily precipitation series distributed over the territory. There have been two-part changes in extreme rainfall events occurrence in the last 23 years from 1987 to 2009. Little change is observed in 720 min and 24-h precipitations, but the change seen in 5, 10, 15, 20, 30, 45, 60, 120, 180 and 360 min events is significant. In fact, during the 2000s, growth curves have flattened and annual maxima have decreased.

Operational early warning platform for extreme meteorological events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mühr, Bernhard; Kunz, Michael

2015-04-01

Operational early warning platform for extreme meteorological events Most natural disasters are related to extreme weather events (e.g. typhoons); weather conditions, however, are also highly relevant for humanitarian and disaster relief operations during and after other natural disaster like earthquakes. The internet service "Wettergefahren-Frühwarnung" (WF) provides various information on extreme weather events, especially when these events are associated with a high potential for large damage. The main focus of the platform is on Central Europe, but major events are also monitored worldwide on a daily routine. WF provides high-resolution forecast maps for many weather parameters which allow detailed and reliable predictions about weather conditions during the next days in the affected areas. The WF service became operational in February 2004 and is part of the Center for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology (CEDIM) since 2007. At the end of 2011, CEDIM embarked a new type of interdisciplinary disaster research termed as forensic disaster analysis (FDA) in near real time. In case of an imminent extreme weather event WF plays an important role in CEDIM's FDA group. It provides early and precise information which are always available and updated several times during a day and gives advice and assists with articles and reports on extreme events.

Response of snow-dependent hydrologic extremes to continued global warming

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Diffenbaugh, Noah; Scherer, Martin; Ashfaq, Moetasim

2012-01-01

Snow accumulation is critical for water availability in the Northern Hemisphere1,2, raising concern that global warming could have important impacts on natural and human systems in snow-dependent regions1,3. Although regional hydrologic changes have been observed (for example, refs 1,3 5), the time of emergence of extreme changes in snow accumulation and melt remains a key unknown for assessing climate- change impacts3,6,7. We find that the CMIP5 global climate model ensemble exhibits an imminent shift towards low snow years in the Northern Hemisphere, with areas of western North America, northeastern Europe and the Greater Himalaya showing the strongest emergence during themore » near- termdecadesandat2 Cglobalwarming.Theoccurrenceof extremely low snow years becomes widespread by the late twenty-first century, as do the occurrences of extremely high early-season snowmelt and runoff (implying increasing flood risk), and extremely low late-season snowmelt and runoff (implying increasing water stress). Our results suggest that many snow-dependent regions of the Northern Hemisphere are likely to experience increasing stress from low snow years within the next three decades, and from extreme changes in snow-dominated water resources if global warming exceeds 2 C above the pre-industrial baseline.« less

Evaluation of extreme temperature events in northern Spain based on process control charts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Villeta, M.; Valencia, J. L.; Saá, A.; Tarquis, A. M.

2018-02-01

Extreme climate events have recently attracted the attention of a growing number of researchers because these events impose a large cost on agriculture and associated insurance planning. This study focuses on extreme temperature events and proposes a new method for their evaluation based on statistical process control tools, which are unusual in climate studies. A series of minimum and maximum daily temperatures for 12 geographical areas of a Spanish region between 1931 and 2009 were evaluated by applying statistical process control charts to statistically test whether evidence existed for an increase or a decrease of extreme temperature events. Specification limits were determined for each geographical area and used to define four types of extreme anomalies: lower and upper extremes for the minimum and maximum anomalies. A new binomial Markov extended process that considers the autocorrelation between extreme temperature events was generated for each geographical area and extreme anomaly type to establish the attribute control charts for the annual fraction of extreme days and to monitor the occurrence of annual extreme days. This method was used to assess the significance of changes and trends of extreme temperature events in the analysed region. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of an attribute control chart for evaluating extreme temperature events. For example, the evaluation of extreme maximum temperature events using the proposed statistical process control charts was consistent with the evidence of an increase in maximum temperatures during the last decades of the last century.

Predicting the Effect of Changing Precipitation Extremes and Land Cover Change on Urban Water Quality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

SUN, N.; Yearsley, J. R.; Lettenmaier, D. P.

2013-12-01

Recent research shows that precipitation extremes in many of the largest U.S. urban areas have increased over the last 60 years. These changes have important implications for stormwater runoff and water quality, which in urban areas are dominated by the most extreme precipitation events. We assess the potential implications of changes in extreme precipitation and changing land cover in urban and urbanizing watersheds at the regional scale using a combination of hydrology and water quality models. Specifically, we describe the integration of a spatially distributed hydrological model - the Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model (DHSVM), the urban water quality model in EPA's Storm Water Management Model (SWMM), the semi-Lagrangian stream temperature model RBM10, and dynamical and statistical downscaling methods applied to global climate predictions. Key output water quality parameters include total suspended solids (TSS), toal nitrogen, total phosphorous, fecal coliform bacteria and stream temperature. We have evaluated the performance of the modeling system in the highly urbanized Mercer Creek watershed in the rapidly growing Bellevue urban area in WA, USA. The results suggest that the model is able to (1) produce reasonable streamflow predictions at fine temporal and spatial scales; (2) provide spatially distributed water temperature predictions that mostly agree with observations throughout a complex stream network, and characterize impacts of climate, landscape, near-stream vegetation change on stream temperature at local and regional scales; and (3) capture plausibly the response of water quality constituents to varying magnitude of precipitation events in urban environments. Next we will extend the scope of the study from the Mercer Creek watershed to include the entire Puget Sound Basin, WA, USA.

Lifestyle and nutrition related to male longevity in Sardinia: an ecological study.

PubMed

Pes, G M; Tolu, F; Poulain, M; Errigo, A; Masala, S; Pietrobelli, A; Battistini, N C; Maioli, M

2013-03-01

A demographic analysis in the Mediterranean island of Sardinia revealed marked differences in extreme longevity across the 377 municipalities and particularly identified a mountain inner area where the proportion of oldest subjects among male population has one of the highest validated value worldwide. The cause(s) of this unequal distribution of male longevity may be attributed to a concurrence of environmental, lifestyle and genetic factors. In this study we focussed on some lifestyle and nutrition variables recorded in the island's population in early decades of 20th century, when agricultural and pastoral economy was still prevalent, and try to verify through ecological spatial models if they may account for the variability in male longevity. By computing the Extreme Longevity Index (the proportion of newborns in a given municipality who reach age 100) the island's territory was divided in two areas with relatively higher and lower level of population longevity. Most nutritional variables do not show any significant difference between these two areas whereas a significant difference was found with respect to pastoralism (P = 0.0001), physical activity estimated by the average slope of the territory in each municipality (P = 0.0001), and average daily distance required by the active population to reach the usual workplace (P = 0.0001). Overall, these findings suggest that factors affecting the average energy expenditure of male population such as occupational activity and geographic characteristics of the area where the population mainly resides, are important in explaining the spatial variation of Sardinian extreme longevity. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Individual Differences in Adaptability to Isolated, Confined, and Extreme Environments.

PubMed

Bartone, Paul T; Krueger, Gerald P; Bartone, Jocelyn V

2018-06-01

Future deep space missions will expose astronauts to more intense stressors than previously encountered. Isolation will be greater and more prolonged, living and work areas more confined, and communications and resupply channels to Earth longer and less reliable. Astronauts will need to function more autonomously, with less guidance and support from Earth. Thus, it is important to select and train astronauts who can adapt and function effectively under extreme and variable conditions. In order to identify factors linked to individual adaptability, we conducted a systematic review of the literature on cognitive and behavioral adaptation to isolated, confined, and extreme (ICE) environments. We searched PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, and PsychINFO databases for studies addressing individual adaptability to ICE environments. Studies were rated for quality and fidelity to long-duration space missions and key results extracted. There were 73 studies that met all inclusion criteria. Adaptability attributes for ICE environments include intelligence, emotional stability, self-control, openness, achievement facets of conscientiousness, optimism, mastery, introversion, hardiness, task-oriented coping, past experience, low need for social support, and adequate sleep. This review identifies individual factors linked to adaptability under ICE conditions. Further studies are needed to verify causal directions and determine the relative importance of these factors.Bartone PT, Krueger GP, Bartone JV. Individual differences in adaptability to isolated, confined, and extreme environments. Aerosp Med Hum Perform. 2018; 89(6):536-546.

Impacts of urbanization on Indian summer monsoon rainfall extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shastri, Hiteshri; Paul, Supantha; Ghosh, Subimal; Karmakar, Subhankar

2015-01-01

areas have different climatology with respect to their rural surroundings. Though urbanization is a worldwide phenomenon, it is especially prevalent in India, where urban areas have experienced an unprecedented rate of growth over the last 30 years. Here we take up an observational study to understand the influence of urbanization on the characteristics of precipitation (specifically extremes) in India. We identify 42 urban regions and compare their extreme rainfall characteristics with those of surrounding rural areas. We observe that, on an overall scale, the urban signatures on extreme rainfall are not prominently and consistently visible, but they are spatially nonuniform. Zonal analysis reveals significant impacts of urbanization on extreme rainfall in central and western regions of India. An additional examination, to understand the influences of urbanization on heavy rainfall climatology, is carried with station level data using a statistical method, quantile regression. This is performed for the most populated city of India, Mumbai, in pair with a nearby nonurban area, Alibaug; both having similar geographic location. The derived extreme rainfall regression quantiles reveal the sensitivity of extreme rainfall events to the increased urbanization. Overall the study identifies the climatological zones in India, where increased urbanization affects regional rainfall pattern and extremes, with a detailed case study of Mumbai. This also calls attention to the need of further experimental investigation, for the identification of the key climatological processes, in different regions of India, affected by increased urbanization.

Federal Government Funding of Research in Universities in Nigeria, the University of Benin as a Case Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Osagie, Roseline O.

2012-01-01

It is increasingly evident that research is extremely critical and important if universities are to serve as engines of development in their areas of locations. For a knowledge-driven world, investment in research and development (R&D) is a sine qua non for a nation. Few studies have examined the federal government's investment in research in…

USACE Extreme Sea Levels Advice on Guidance on Procedures to Evaluate and Adapt to Changes in Mean and Extreme Sea Levels.

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-09-09

influences of changes in extreme sea levels as they affect the four mission areas of USACE: storm damage reduction, flood risk mitigation, ecosystems...winds and surface pressure can occur on the scale of the inundation area under investigation, cyclonic climatologies and more sophisticated inundation...Federal and State agencies (particularly the Bureau of Meteorology) providing forecast data (e.g. DIPNR, 2005, Appendix N). In more developed areas of

Changes in Extremely Hot Summers over the Global Land Area under Various Warming Targets.

PubMed

Wang, Lei; Huang, Jianbin; Luo, Yong; Yao, Yao; Zhao, Zongci

2015-01-01

Summer temperature extremes over the global land area were investigated by comparing 26 models of the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) with observations from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) and the Climate Research Unit (CRU). Monthly data of the observations and models were averaged for each season, and statistics were calculated for individual models before averaging them to obtain ensemble means. The summers with temperature anomalies (relative to 1951-1980) exceeding 3σ (σ is based on the local internal variability) are defined as "extremely hot". The models well reproduced the statistical characteristics evolution, and partly captured the spatial distributions of historical summer temperature extremes. If the global mean temperature increases 2°C relative to the pre-industrial level, "extremely hot" summers are projected to occur over nearly 40% of the land area (multi-model ensemble mean projection). Summers that exceed 5σ warming are projected to occur over approximately 10% of the global land area, which were rarely observed during the reference period. Scenarios reaching warming levels of 3°C to 5°C were also analyzed. After exceeding the 5°C warming target, "extremely hot" summers are projected to occur throughout the entire global land area, and summers that exceed 5σ warming would become common over 70% of the land area. In addition, the areas affected by "extremely hot" summers are expected to rapidly expand by more than 25%/°C as the global mean temperature increases by up to 3°C before slowing to less than 16%/°C as the temperature continues to increase by more than 3°C. The area that experiences summers with warming of 5σ or more above the warming target of 2°C is likely to maintain rapid expansion of greater than 17%/°C. To reduce the impacts and damage from severely hot summers, the global mean temperature increase should remain low.

Rendezvous, proximity operations and capture quality function deployment report

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lamkin, Stephen L. (Editor)

1991-01-01

Rendezvous, Proximity Operations, and Capture (RPOC) is a missions operations area which is extremely important to present and future space initiatives and must be well planned and coordinated. To support this, a study team was formed to identify a specific plan of action using the Quality Function Deployment (QFD) process. This team was composed of members from a wide spectrum of engineering and operations organizations which are involved in the RPOC technology area. The key to this study's success is an understanding of the needs of potential programmatic customers and the technology base available for system implementation. To this end, the study team conducted interviews with a variety of near term and future programmatic customers and technology development sponsors. The QFD activity led to a thorough understanding of the needs of these customers in the RPOC area, as well as the relative importance of these needs.

Projected changes in climate extremes over Qatar and the Arabian Gulf region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kundeti, K.; Kanikicharla, K. K.; Al sulaiti, M.; Khulaifi, M.; Alboinin, N.; Kito, A.

2015-12-01

The climate of the State of Qatar and the adjacent region is dominated by subtropical dry, hot desert climate with low annual rainfall, very high temperatures in summer and a big difference between maximum and minimum temperatures, especially in the inland areas. The coastal areas are influenced by the Arabian Gulf, and have lower maximum, but higher minimum temperatures and a higher moisture percentage in the air. The global warming can have profound impact on the mean climate as well as extreme weather events over the Arabian Peninsula that may affect both natural and human systems significantly. Therefore, it is important to assess the future changes in the seasonal/annual mean of temperature and precipitation and also the extremes in temperature and wind events for a country like Qatar. This study assesses the performance of the Coupled Model Inter comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations in present and develops future climate scenarios. The changes in climate extremes are assessed for three future periods 2016-2035, 2046-2065 and 2080-2099 with respect to 1986-2005 (base line) under two RCPs (Representative Concentrate Pathways) - RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. We analyzed the projected changes in temperature and precipitation extremes using several indices including those that capture heat stress. The observations show an increase in warm extremes over many parts in this region that are generally well captured by the models. The results indicate a significant change in frequency and intensity of both temperature and precipitation extremes over many parts of this region which may have serious implications on human health, water resources and the onshore/offshore infrastructure in this region. Data from a high-resolution (20km) AGCM simulation from Meteorological Research Institute of Japan Meteorological Agency for the present (1979-2003) and a future time slice (2075-2099) corresponding to RCP8.5 have also been utilized to assess the impact of climate change on regional climate extremes as well. The scenarios generated with the high-resolution model simulation were compared with the coarse resolution CMIP5 model scenarios to identify region specific features that might be better resolved in the former simulation.

Regional and local increases in storm intensity in the San Francisco Bay Area, USA, between 1890 and 2010

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Russo, Tess A.; Fisher, Andrew T.; Winslow, Dustin M.

2013-04-01

Studies of extreme precipitation have documented changes at the continental scale during the twentieth century, but few studies have quantified changes at small to regional spatial scales during the same time. We analyze historic data from over 600 precipitation stations in the San Francisco Bay Area (SFBA), California, to assess whether there have been statistically significant changes in extreme precipitation between 1890 and 2010. An annual exceedance probability analysis of extreme precipitation events in the SFBA, coupled with a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm, reveals an increase in the occurrence of large events. The depth-duration-frequency characteristics of maximum annual precipitation events having durations of 1 h to 60 days indicate on average an increase in storm intensity in the last 120 years, with the intensity of the largest (least frequent) events increasing the most. Mean annual precipitation (MAP) also increased during the study period, but the relative increase in extreme event intensity exceeds that of MAP, indicating that a greater fraction of precipitation fell during large events. Analysis of data from subareas within the SFBA region indicates considerable heterogeneity in the observed nonstationarity; for example, the 5 day, 25 year event exceedance depth changed by +26%, +16%, and -1% in San Francisco, Santa Rosa, and San Jose, respectively. These results emphasize the importance of analyzing local data for accurate risk assessment, emergency planning, resource management, and climate model calibration.

Climate-Soil-Vegetation Interactions: A Case-Study from the Forest Fire Phenomenon in Southern Switzerland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reinhard, M.; Alexakis, E.; Rebetez, M.; Schlaepfer, R.

2003-04-01

In Southern Switzerland, we have observed increasing trends in extreme drought and precipitation events, probably linked to global climatic change. These modifications are more important than changes in annual precipitation sums. On the one hand, an increase in extreme drought implies a higher risk for forest fires, impeding the fulfilment of the various forest functions, on the other hand, extreme precipitation events, developing over a short time span, could simultaneously damage the forest ecosystems or destabilise the soil of burned areas, triggering debris flows. Climatic changes might additionally lead to modifications of the current species composition in the forests. Changes are currently observed at lower elevations (laurophiliation), but are still largely unknown at higher elevations. For the time being, forest fires cannot be regarded as natural phenomena in the South of Switzerland because they are mostly anthropogenically triggered. However, the changing climatic patterns, which set new conditions for the forests, may become a new ecological regulator for the forests as well as the forest fires. The social and environmental consequences are important for these issues. The implications for forest planning and management must be further studied and taken into account. Despite uncertainty about the response of forest ecosystems to climate change, planning and management can no longer rely on decadal to century climatic patterns. The increasing importance of changing environmental conditions within the framework of prevention will have to be reconsidered.

Quantifying the influence of global warming on unprecedented extreme climate events

PubMed Central

Singh, Deepti; Horton, Daniel E.; Swain, Daniel L.; Touma, Danielle; Charland, Allison; Liu, Yunjie; Haugen, Matz; Tsiang, Michael; Rajaratnam, Bala

2017-01-01

Efforts to understand the influence of historical global warming on individual extreme climate events have increased over the past decade. However, despite substantial progress, events that are unprecedented in the local observational record remain a persistent challenge. Leveraging observations and a large climate model ensemble, we quantify uncertainty in the influence of global warming on the severity and probability of the historically hottest month, hottest day, driest year, and wettest 5-d period for different areas of the globe. We find that historical warming has increased the severity and probability of the hottest month and hottest day of the year at >80% of the available observational area. Our framework also suggests that the historical climate forcing has increased the probability of the driest year and wettest 5-d period at 57% and 41% of the observed area, respectively, although we note important caveats. For the most protracted hot and dry events, the strongest and most widespread contributions of anthropogenic climate forcing occur in the tropics, including increases in probability of at least a factor of 4 for the hottest month and at least a factor of 2 for the driest year. We also demonstrate the ability of our framework to systematically evaluate the role of dynamic and thermodynamic factors such as atmospheric circulation patterns and atmospheric water vapor, and find extremely high statistical confidence that anthropogenic forcing increased the probability of record-low Arctic sea ice extent. PMID:28439005

Quantifying the influence of global warming on unprecedented extreme climate events.

PubMed

Diffenbaugh, Noah S; Singh, Deepti; Mankin, Justin S; Horton, Daniel E; Swain, Daniel L; Touma, Danielle; Charland, Allison; Liu, Yunjie; Haugen, Matz; Tsiang, Michael; Rajaratnam, Bala

2017-05-09

Efforts to understand the influence of historical global warming on individual extreme climate events have increased over the past decade. However, despite substantial progress, events that are unprecedented in the local observational record remain a persistent challenge. Leveraging observations and a large climate model ensemble, we quantify uncertainty in the influence of global warming on the severity and probability of the historically hottest month, hottest day, driest year, and wettest 5-d period for different areas of the globe. We find that historical warming has increased the severity and probability of the hottest month and hottest day of the year at >80% of the available observational area. Our framework also suggests that the historical climate forcing has increased the probability of the driest year and wettest 5-d period at 57% and 41% of the observed area, respectively, although we note important caveats. For the most protracted hot and dry events, the strongest and most widespread contributions of anthropogenic climate forcing occur in the tropics, including increases in probability of at least a factor of 4 for the hottest month and at least a factor of 2 for the driest year. We also demonstrate the ability of our framework to systematically evaluate the role of dynamic and thermodynamic factors such as atmospheric circulation patterns and atmospheric water vapor, and find extremely high statistical confidence that anthropogenic forcing increased the probability of record-low Arctic sea ice extent.

Quantifying the Influence of Global Warming on Unprecedented Extreme Climate Events

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Diffenbaugh, Noah S.; Singh, Deepti; Mankin, Justin S.; Horton, Daniel E.; Swain, Daniel L.; Touma, Danielle; Charland, Allison; Liu, Yunjie; Haugen, Matz; Tsiang, Michael;

BreathSens: A Continuous On-Bed Respiratory Monitoring System With Torso Localization Using an Unobtrusive Pressure Sensing Array.

PubMed

Liu, Jason J; Huang, Ming-Chun; Xu, Wenyao; Zhang, Xiaoyi; Stevens, Luke; Alshurafa, Nabil; Sarrafzadeh, Majid

2015-09-01

The ability to continuously monitor respiration rates of patients in homecare or in clinics is an important goal. Past research showed that monitoring patient breathing can lower the associated mortality rates for long-term bedridden patients. Nowadays, in-bed sensors consisting of pressure sensitive arrays are unobtrusive and are suitable for deployment in a wide range of settings. Such systems aim to extract respiratory signals from time-series pressure sequences. However, variance of movements, such as unpredictable extremities activities, affect the quality of the extracted respiratory signals. BreathSens, a high-density pressure sensing system made of e-Textile, profiles the underbody pressure distribution and localizes torso area based on the high-resolution pressure images. With a robust bodyparts localization algorithm, respiratory signals extracted from the localized torso area are insensitive to arbitrary extremities movements. In a study of 12 subjects, BreathSens demonstrated its respiratory monitoring capability with variations of sleep postures, locations, and commonly tilted clinical bed conditions.

Mapping the world's tropical cyclone rainfall contribution over land using TRMM satellite data: precipitation budget and extreme rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prat, O. P.; Nelson, B. R.

2012-12-01

A study was performed to characterize over-land precipitation associated with tropical cyclones (TCs) for basins around the world gathered in the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS). From 1998 to 2010, rainfall data from TRMM 3B42, showed that TCs accounted for 8-, 11-, 7-, 10-, and 12-% of the annual over-land precipitation for North America, East Asia, Northern Indian Ocean, Australia, and South-West Indian Ocean respectively, and that TC-contribution decreased importantly within the first 150-km from the coast. At the local scale, TCs contributed on average to more than 40% and up to 77% of the annual precipitation budget over very different climatic areas with arid or tropical characteristics. The East Asia domain presented the higher and most constant TC-rain (170±23%-mm/yr) normalized over the area impacted, while the Southwest Indian domain presented the highest variability (130±48%-mm/yr), and the North American domain displayed the lowest average TC-rain (77±27%-mm/yr) despite a higher TC-activity. The maximum monthly TC-contribution (11-15%) was found later in the TC-season and was a conjunction between the peak of TC-activity, TC-rainfall, and the domain annual antagonism between dry and wet regimes if any. Furthermore, TC-days that accounted globally for 2±0.5% of all precipitation events for all basins, represented between 11-30% of rainfall extremes (>101.6mm/day). Locally, TC-rainfall was linked with the majority (>70%) or the quasi-totality (≈100%) of extreme rainfall. Finally, because of their importance in terms of rainfall amount, the contribution of tropical cyclones is provided for a selection of fifty urban areas experiencing cyclonic activity. Cases studies conducted at the regional scale will focus on the link between TC-activity, water resources, and hydrohazards such as floods and droughts.

Multiclass Classification for the Differential Diagnosis on the ADHD Subtypes Using Recursive Feature Elimination and Hierarchical Extreme Learning Machine: Structural MRI Study

PubMed Central

Qureshi, Muhammad Naveed Iqbal; Min, Beomjun; Jo, Hang Joon; Lee, Boreom

2016-01-01

The classification of neuroimaging data for the diagnosis of certain brain diseases is one of the main research goals of the neuroscience and clinical communities. In this study, we performed multiclass classification using a hierarchical extreme learning machine (H-ELM) classifier. We compared the performance of this classifier with that of a support vector machine (SVM) and basic extreme learning machine (ELM) for cortical MRI data from attention deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) patients. We used 159 structural MRI images of children from the publicly available ADHD-200 MRI dataset. The data consisted of three types, namely, typically developing (TDC), ADHD-inattentive (ADHD-I), and ADHD-combined (ADHD-C). We carried out feature selection by using standard SVM-based recursive feature elimination (RFE-SVM) that enabled us to achieve good classification accuracy (60.78%). In this study, we found the RFE-SVM feature selection approach in combination with H-ELM to effectively enable the acquisition of high multiclass classification accuracy rates for structural neuroimaging data. In addition, we found that the most important features for classification were the surface area of the superior frontal lobe, and the cortical thickness, volume, and mean surface area of the whole cortex. PMID:27500640

Quantification of temperature persistence over the Northern Hemisphere land-area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pfleiderer, Peter; Coumou, Dim

2017-10-01

Extreme weather events such as heat waves and floods are damaging to society and their contribution to future climate impacts is expected to be large. Such extremes are often related to persistent local weather conditions. Weather persistence is linked to sea surface temperatures, soil-moisture (especially in summer) and large-scale circulation patterns and these factors can alter under past and future climate change. Though persistence is a key characteristic for extreme weather events, to date the climatology and potential changes in persistence have only been poorly documented. Here, we present a systematic analysis of temperature persistence for the northern hemisphere land area. We define persistence as the length of consecutive warm or cold days and use spatial clustering techniques to create regional persistence distributions. We find that persistence is longest in the Arctic and shortest in the mid-latitudes. Parameterizations of the regional persistence distributions show that they are characterized by an exponential decay with a drop in the decay rate for very persistent events, implying that feedback mechanisms are important in prolonging these events. For the mid-latitudes, we find that persistence in summer has increased over the past 60 years. The changes are particularly pronounced for prolonged events suggesting a lengthening in the duration of heat waves.

Multiclass Classification for the Differential Diagnosis on the ADHD Subtypes Using Recursive Feature Elimination and Hierarchical Extreme Learning Machine: Structural MRI Study.

PubMed

Qureshi, Muhammad Naveed Iqbal; Min, Beomjun; Jo, Hang Joon; Lee, Boreom

2016-01-01

The classification of neuroimaging data for the diagnosis of certain brain diseases is one of the main research goals of the neuroscience and clinical communities. In this study, we performed multiclass classification using a hierarchical extreme learning machine (H-ELM) classifier. We compared the performance of this classifier with that of a support vector machine (SVM) and basic extreme learning machine (ELM) for cortical MRI data from attention deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) patients. We used 159 structural MRI images of children from the publicly available ADHD-200 MRI dataset. The data consisted of three types, namely, typically developing (TDC), ADHD-inattentive (ADHD-I), and ADHD-combined (ADHD-C). We carried out feature selection by using standard SVM-based recursive feature elimination (RFE-SVM) that enabled us to achieve good classification accuracy (60.78%). In this study, we found the RFE-SVM feature selection approach in combination with H-ELM to effectively enable the acquisition of high multiclass classification accuracy rates for structural neuroimaging data. In addition, we found that the most important features for classification were the surface area of the superior frontal lobe, and the cortical thickness, volume, and mean surface area of the whole cortex.

Variability of atmospheric greenhouse gases as a biogeochemical processing signal at regional scale in a karstic ecosystem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Borràs, Sílvia; Vazquez, Eusebi; Morguí, Josep-Anton; Àgueda, Alba; Batet, Oscar; Cañas, Lídia; Curcoll, Roger; Grossi, Claudia; Nofuentes, Manel; Occhipinti, Paola; Rodó, Xavier

2015-04-01

The South-eastern area of the Iberian Peninsula is an area where climatic conditions reach extreme climatic conditions during the year, and is also heavily affected by the ENSO and NAO. The Natural Park of Cazorla, Segura de la Sierra and Las Villas is located in this region, and it is the largest protected natural area in Spain (209920 Ha). This area is characterized by important climatic and hydrologic contrasts: although the mean annual precipitation is 770 nm, the karstic soils are the main cause for water scarcity during the summer months, while on the other hand it is in this area where the two main rivers of Southern Spain, the Segura and the Guadalquivir, are born. The protected area comprises many forested landscapes, karstic areas and reservoirs like Tranco de Beas. The temperatures during summer are high, with over 40°C heatwaves occurring each year. But during the winter months, the land surface can be covered by snow for periods of time up until 30 days. The ENSO and NAO influences cause also an important inter annual climatic variability in this area. Under the ENSO, autumnal periods are more humid while the following spring is drier. In this area vegetal Mediterranean communities are dominant. But there are also a high number of endemic species and derelict species typical of temperate climate. Therefore it is a protected area with high specific diversity. Additionally, there is an important agricultural activity in the fringe areas of the Natural Park, mainly for olive production, while inside the Park this activity is focused on mountain wheat production. Therefore the diverse vegetal communities and landscapes can easily be under extreme climatic pressures, affecting in turn the biogeochemical processes at the regional scale. The constant, high-frequency monitoring of greenhouse gases (GHG) (CO2 and CH4) integrates the biogeochemical signal of changes in this area related to the carbon cycle at the regional scale, capturing the high diversity of landscapes and climatic variability. The monitoring is carried out in one of the stations of the ClimaDat network, which consists of eight GHG monitoring stations in highly preserved ecosystems which are very sensitive to climate change in Spain. This constant monitoring will allow relating changes in terrestrial ecosystems, hydrological processes and atmospheric transport of GHG. The goal of the presentation is to show the results obtained since September 2013 through continuous monitoring, focusing on the seasonal changes in precipitation, temperature, and CO2 and CH4 changes in atmospheric concentrations.

Quantifying crowd size with mobile phone and Twitter data

PubMed Central

Botta, Federico; Moat, Helen Susannah; Preis, Tobias

2015-01-01

Being able to infer the number of people in a specific area is of extreme importance for the avoidance of crowd disasters and to facilitate emergency evacuations. Here, using a football stadium and an airport as case studies, we present evidence of a strong relationship between the number of people in restricted areas and activity recorded by mobile phone providers and the online service Twitter. Our findings suggest that data generated through our interactions with mobile phone networks and the Internet may allow us to gain valuable measurements of the current state of society. PMID:26064667

Extremely thick cell walls and low mesophyll conductance: welcome to the world of ancient living!

PubMed Central

Tosens, Tiina; Laanisto, Lauri; Niinemets, Ülo

2017-01-01

Abstract Mesophyll conductance is thought to be an important photosynthetic limitation in gymnosperms, but they currently constitute the most understudied plant group in regard to the extent to which photosynthesis and intrinsic water use efficiency are limited by mesophyll conductance. A comprehensive analysis of leaf gas exchange, photosynthetic limitations, mesophyll conductance (calculated by three methods previously used for across-species comparisons), and the underlying ultra-anatomical, morphological and chemical traits in 11 gymnosperm species varying in evolutionary history was performed to gain insight into the evolution of structural and physiological controls on photosynthesis at the lower return end of the leaf economics spectrum. Two primitive herbaceous species were included in order to provide greater evolutionary context. Low mesophyll conductance was the main limiting factor of photosynthesis in the majority of species. The strongest sources of limitation were extremely thick mesophyll cell walls, high chloroplast thickness and variation in chloroplast shape and size, and the low exposed surface area of chloroplasts per unit leaf area. In gymnosperms, the negative relationship between net assimilation per mass and leaf mass per area reflected an increased mesophyll cell wall thickness, whereas the easy-to-measure integrative trait of leaf mass per area failed to predict the underlying ultrastructural traits limiting mesophyll conductance. PMID:28419340

Extreme temperature events on Greenland in observations and the MAR regional climate model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leeson, Amber A.; Eastoe, Emma; Fettweis, Xavier

2018-03-01

Meltwater from the Greenland Ice Sheet contributed 1.7-6.12 mm to global sea level between 1993 and 2010 and is expected to contribute 20-110 mm to future sea level rise by 2100. These estimates were produced by regional climate models (RCMs) which are known to be robust at the ice sheet scale but occasionally miss regional- and local-scale climate variability (e.g. Leeson et al., 2017; Medley et al., 2013). To date, the fidelity of these models in the context of short-period variability in time (i.e. intra-seasonal) has not been fully assessed, for example their ability to simulate extreme temperature events. We use an event identification algorithm commonly used in extreme value analysis, together with observations from the Greenland Climate Network (GC-Net), to assess the ability of the MAR (Modèle Atmosphérique Régional) RCM to reproduce observed extreme positive-temperature events at 14 sites around Greenland. We find that MAR is able to accurately simulate the frequency and duration of these events but underestimates their magnitude by more than half a degree Celsius/kelvin, although this bias is much smaller than that exhibited by coarse-scale Era-Interim reanalysis data. As a result, melt energy in MAR output is underestimated by between 16 and 41 % depending on global forcing applied. Further work is needed to precisely determine the drivers of extreme temperature events, and why the model underperforms in this area, but our findings suggest that biases are passed into MAR from boundary forcing data. This is important because these forcings are common between RCMs and their range of predictions of past and future ice sheet melting. We propose that examining extreme events should become a routine part of global and regional climate model evaluation and that addressing shortcomings in this area should be a priority for model development.

A comparison of observed extreme water levels at the German Bight elaborated through an extreme value analysis (EVA) with extremes derived from a regionally coupled ocean-atmospheric climate model (MPI-OM)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Möller, Jens; Heinrich, Hartmut

2017-04-01

As a consequence of climate change atmospheric and oceanographic extremes and their potential impacts on coastal regions are of growing concern for governmental authorities responsible for the transportation infrastructure. Highest risks for shipping as well as for rail and road traffic originate from combined effects of extremes of storm surges and heavy rainfall which sometimes lead to insufficient dewatering of inland waterways. The German Ministry of Transport and digital Infrastructure therefore has tasked its Network of Experts to investigate the possible evolutions of extreme threats for low lands and especially for Kiel Canal, which is an important shortcut for shipping between the North and Baltic Seas. In this study we present results of a comparison of an Extreme Value Analysis (EVA) carried out on gauge observations and values derived from a coupled Regional Ocean-Atmosphere Climate Model (MPI-OM). High water levels at the coasts of the North and Baltic Seas are one of the most important hazards which increase the risk of flooding of the low-lying land and prevents such areas from an adequate dewatering. In this study changes in the intensity (magnitude of the extremes) and duration of extreme water levels (above a selected threshold) are investigated for several gauge stations with data partly reaching back to 1843. Different methods are used for the extreme value statistics, (1) a stationary general Pareto distribution (GPD) model as well as (2) an instationary statistical model for better reproduction of the impact of climate change. Most gauge stations show an increase of the mean water level of about 1-2 mm/year, with a stronger increase of the highest water levels and a decrease (or lower increase) of the lowest water levels. Also, the duration of possible dewatering time intervals for the Kiel-Canal was analysed. The results for the historical gauge station observations are compared to the statistics of modelled water levels from the coupled atmosphere-ocean climate model MPI-OM for the time interval from 1951 to 2000. We demonstrate that for high water levels the observations and MPI-OM results are in good agreement, and we provide an estimate on the decreasing dewatering potential for Kiel Canal until the end of the 21st century.

Origami structures for tunable thermal expansion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boatti, Elisa; Bertoldi, Katia

Materials with engineered thermal expansion, capable of achieving targeted and extreme area/volume changes in response to variations in temperature, are important for a number of aerospace, optical, energy, and microelectronic applications. While most of the proposed structures with tunable coefficient of thermal expansion consist of bi-material 2D or 3D lattices, here we propose a periodic metastructure based on a bilayer Miura-Ori origami fold. We combine experiments and simulations to demonstrate that by tuning the geometrical and mechanical parameters an extremely broad range of thermal expansion coefficients can be obtained, spanning both negative and positive values. Additionally, the thermal properties along different directions can be adjusted independently. Differently from all previously reported systems, the proposed structure is non-porous.

Early Detection of Lightning Caused Wildfires and Prediction of Wildfire Behavior through Energy Distribution, Atmospherics, Geophysics, the Sun's Azimuth, and Topology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Giesige, C.; Nava, E.

2016-12-01

In the midst of a changing climate we have seen extremes in weather events: lightning, wildfires, hurricanes, tornadoes, and earthquakes. All of these ride on an imbalance of magnetic and electrical distribution about the earth including what goes on from the atmospheric and geophysic levels. There is relevance to the important role the sun plays in developing and feeding of the extreme weather events along with the sun's role helping to create a separation of charges on earth furthering climactic extremes. Focusing attention in North America and on how the sun, atmospheric and geophysic winds come together producing lightning events, there are connections between energy distribution in the environment, lightning caused wildfires, and extreme wildfire behavior. Lightning caused wildfires and extreme fire behavior have become enhanced with the changing climate conditions. Even with strong developments in wildfire science, there remains a lack in full understanding of connections that create a lightning caused wildfire event and lack of monitoring advancements in predicting extreme fire behavior. Several connections have been made in our research allowing us to connect multiple facets of the environment in regards to electric and magnetic influences on wildfires. Among them include: irradiance, winds, pressure systems, humidity, and topology. The connections can be made to develop better detection systems of wildfires, establish with more accuracy areas of highest risk for wildfire and extreme wildfire behavior, and prediction of wildfire behavior. A platform found within the environment can also lead to further understanding and monitoring of other extreme weather events in the future.

Spatial Intensity Duration Frequency Relationships Using Hierarchical Bayesian Analysis for Urban Areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rupa, Chandra; Mujumdar, Pradeep

2016-04-01

In urban areas, quantification of extreme precipitation is important in the design of storm water drains and other infrastructure. Intensity Duration Frequency (IDF) relationships are generally used to obtain design return level for a given duration and return period. Due to lack of availability of extreme precipitation data for sufficiently large number of years, estimating the probability of extreme events is difficult. Typically, a single station data is used to obtain the design return levels for various durations and return periods, which are used in the design of urban infrastructure for the entire city. In an urban setting, the spatial variation of precipitation can be high; the precipitation amounts and patterns often vary within short distances of less than 5 km. Therefore it is crucial to study the uncertainties in the spatial variation of return levels for various durations. In this work, the extreme precipitation is modeled spatially using the Bayesian hierarchical analysis and the spatial variation of return levels is studied. The analysis is carried out with Block Maxima approach for defining the extreme precipitation, using Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution for Bangalore city, Karnataka state, India. Daily data for nineteen stations in and around Bangalore city is considered in the study. The analysis is carried out for summer maxima (March - May), monsoon maxima (June - September) and the annual maxima rainfall. In the hierarchical analysis, the statistical model is specified in three layers. The data layer models the block maxima, pooling the extreme precipitation from all the stations. In the process layer, the latent spatial process characterized by geographical and climatological covariates (lat-lon, elevation, mean temperature etc.) which drives the extreme precipitation is modeled and in the prior level, the prior distributions that govern the latent process are modeled. Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm (Metropolis Hastings algorithm within a Gibbs sampler) is used to obtain the samples of parameters from the posterior distribution of parameters. The spatial maps of return levels for specified return periods, along with the associated uncertainties, are obtained for the summer, monsoon and annual maxima rainfall. Considering various covariates, the best fit model is selected using Deviance Information Criteria. It is observed that the geographical covariates outweigh the climatological covariates for the monsoon maxima rainfall (latitude and longitude). The best covariates for summer maxima and annual maxima rainfall are mean summer precipitation and mean monsoon precipitation respectively, including elevation for both the cases. The scale invariance theory, which states that statistical properties of a process observed at various scales are governed by the same relationship, is used to disaggregate the daily rainfall to hourly scales. The spatial maps of the scale are obtained for the study area. The spatial maps of IDF relationships thus generated are useful in storm water designs, adequacy analysis and identifying the vulnerable flooding areas.

Characteristics of extreme dust events observed over two urban areas in Iran

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bidokhti, Abbas-Ali A.; Gharaylou, Maryam; Pegahfar, Nafiseh; Sabetghadam, Samaneh; Rezazadeh, Maryam

2016-03-01

Determination of dust loading in the atmosphere is important not only from the public health point of view, but also for regional climate changes. The present study focuses on the characteristics of two major dust events for two urban areas in Iran, Kermanshah and Tehran, over the period of 4 years from 2006 to 2009. To detect extreme dust outbreaks, various datasets including synoptic data, dust concentration, reanalysis data and numerical results of WRF and HYSPLIT models were used. The weather maps demonstrate that for these events dusts are mainly generated when wind velocity is high and humidity is low in the lower troposphere and the region is under the influence of a thermal low. The event lasts until the atmospheric stability prevails and the surface wind speed weakens. The thermal low nature of the synoptic conditions of these major events is also responsible for deep boundary layer development with its thermals affecting the vertical dust flux over the region. Trajectory studies show that the dust events originated from deserts in Iraq and Syria and transported towards Iran. The main distinction between the two types of mobilizations seems to affect the dust concentrations in the Tehran urban area.

Climate extremes in Malaysia and the equatorial South China Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salahuddin, Ahmed; Curtis, Scott

2011-08-01

The southern extent of the South China Sea (SCS) is an important natural resource epicenter for Malaysia which experiences climate extremes. This paper documents the variability of extremes in the equatorial SCS through selected ground-based observations of precipitation in Malaysia and ship-based observations of wind data in the Maritime Continent region, to elucidate the interrelationship between precipitation variability over Malaysia and wind variability over the ocean. The data have been carefully inspected and analyzed, and related to the real-time multivariate Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) time series. The analysis suggests that the northeast or boreal winter monsoon dominates extreme rainfall in eastern Malaysian cities. Further, the west coast of Peninsular Malaysia and Borneo Malaysia are affected by the MJO differently than the east coast of Peninsular Malaysia. From the wind analysis we found that average zonal wind is westerly from May to September and easterly from November to April. When the active (convective) phase of the MJO is centered over the Maritime Continent, the strong westerly wind bursts are more frequent in the South China Sea. While more investigation is needed, these results suggest that the status of the Madden-Julian Oscillation can be used to help forecast climate extremes in areas of Malaysia.

Identifying Heat Waves in Florida: Considerations of Missing Weather Data

PubMed Central

Leary, Emily; Young, Linda J.; DuClos, Chris; Jordan, Melissa M.

2015-01-01

Background Using current climate models, regional-scale changes for Florida over the next 100 years are predicted to include warming over terrestrial areas and very likely increases in the number of high temperature extremes. No uniform definition of a heat wave exists. Most past research on heat waves has focused on evaluating the aftermath of known heat waves, with minimal consideration of missing exposure information. Objectives To identify and discuss methods of handling and imputing missing weather data and how those methods can affect identified periods of extreme heat in Florida. Methods In addition to ignoring missing data, temporal, spatial, and spatio-temporal models are described and utilized to impute missing historical weather data from 1973 to 2012 from 43 Florida weather monitors. Calculated thresholds are used to define periods of extreme heat across Florida. Results Modeling of missing data and imputing missing values can affect the identified periods of extreme heat, through the missing data itself or through the computed thresholds. The differences observed are related to the amount of missingness during June, July, and August, the warmest months of the warm season (April through September). Conclusions Missing data considerations are important when defining periods of extreme heat. Spatio-temporal methods are recommended for data imputation. A heat wave definition that incorporates information from all monitors is advised. PMID:26619198

Identifying Heat Waves in Florida: Considerations of Missing Weather Data.

PubMed

Leary, Emily; Young, Linda J; DuClos, Chris; Jordan, Melissa M

2015-01-01

Using current climate models, regional-scale changes for Florida over the next 100 years are predicted to include warming over terrestrial areas and very likely increases in the number of high temperature extremes. No uniform definition of a heat wave exists. Most past research on heat waves has focused on evaluating the aftermath of known heat waves, with minimal consideration of missing exposure information. To identify and discuss methods of handling and imputing missing weather data and how those methods can affect identified periods of extreme heat in Florida. In addition to ignoring missing data, temporal, spatial, and spatio-temporal models are described and utilized to impute missing historical weather data from 1973 to 2012 from 43 Florida weather monitors. Calculated thresholds are used to define periods of extreme heat across Florida. Modeling of missing data and imputing missing values can affect the identified periods of extreme heat, through the missing data itself or through the computed thresholds. The differences observed are related to the amount of missingness during June, July, and August, the warmest months of the warm season (April through September). Missing data considerations are important when defining periods of extreme heat. Spatio-temporal methods are recommended for data imputation. A heat wave definition that incorporates information from all monitors is advised.

Spatial extremes modeling applied to extreme precipitation data in the state of Paraná

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olinda, R. A.; Blanchet, J.; dos Santos, C. A. C.; Ozaki, V. A.; Ribeiro, P. J., Jr.

2014-11-01

Most of the mathematical models developed for rare events are based on probabilistic models for extremes. Although the tools for statistical modeling of univariate and multivariate extremes are well developed, the extension of these tools to model spatial extremes includes an area of very active research nowadays. A natural approach to such a modeling is the theory of extreme spatial and the max-stable process, characterized by the extension of infinite dimensions of multivariate extreme value theory, and making it possible then to incorporate the existing correlation functions in geostatistics and therefore verify the extremal dependence by means of the extreme coefficient and the Madogram. This work describes the application of such processes in modeling the spatial maximum dependence of maximum monthly rainfall from the state of Paraná, based on historical series observed in weather stations. The proposed models consider the Euclidean space and a transformation referred to as space weather, which may explain the presence of directional effects resulting from synoptic weather patterns. This method is based on the theorem proposed for de Haan and on the models of Smith and Schlather. The isotropic and anisotropic behavior of these models is also verified via Monte Carlo simulation. Estimates are made through pairwise likelihood maximum and the models are compared using the Takeuchi Information Criterion. By modeling the dependence of spatial maxima, applied to maximum monthly rainfall data from the state of Paraná, it was possible to identify directional effects resulting from meteorological phenomena, which, in turn, are important for proper management of risks and environmental disasters in countries with its economy heavily dependent on agribusiness.

Mapping fire probability and severity in a Mediterranean area using different weather and fuel moisture scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arca, B.; Salis, M.; Bacciu, V.; Duce, P.; Pellizzaro, G.; Ventura, A.; Spano, D.

2009-04-01

Although in many countries lightning is the main cause of ignition, in the Mediterranean Basin the forest fires are predominantly ignited by arson, or by human negligence. The fire season peaks coincide with extreme weather conditions (mainly strong winds, hot temperatures, low atmospheric water vapour content) and high tourist presence. Many works reported that in the Mediterranean Basin the projected impacts of climate change will cause greater weather variability and extreme weather conditions, with drier and hotter summers and heat waves. At long-term scale, climate changes could affect the fuel load and the dead/live fuel ratio, and therefore could change the vegetation flammability. At short-time scale, the increase of extreme weather events could directly affect fuel water status, and it could increase large fire occurrence. In this context, detecting the areas characterized by both high probability of large fire occurrence and high fire severity could represent an important component of the fire management planning. In this work we compared several fire probability and severity maps (fire occurrence, rate of spread, fireline intensity, flame length) obtained for a study area located in North Sardinia, Italy, using FlamMap simulator (USDA Forest Service, Missoula). FlamMap computes the potential fire behaviour characteristics over a defined landscape for given weather, wind and fuel moisture data. Different weather and fuel moisture scenarios were tested to predict the potential impact of climate changes on fire parameters. The study area, characterized by a mosaic of urban areas, protected areas, and other areas subject to anthropogenic disturbances, is mainly composed by fire-prone Mediterranean maquis. The input themes needed to run FlamMap were input as grid of 10 meters; the wind data, obtained using a computational fluid-dynamic model, were inserted as gridded file, with a resolution of 50 m. The analysis revealed high fire probability and severity in most of the areas, and therefore a high potential danger. The FlamMap outputs and the derived fire probability maps can be used in decision support systems for fire spread and behaviour and for fire danger assessment with actual and future fire regimes.

Risk from drought and extreme heat in Russian wheat production and its relation to atmospheric blocking and teleconnection patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Giannakaki, Paraskevi; Calanca, Pierluigi

2017-04-01

Russia has become one of the leading wheat exporters worldwide. Major breakdowns in Russian wheat production induced by extreme weather events are therefore of high significance not only for the domestic but also for the global market. Wheat production in south-western Russia, the main growing area, suffers in particular from the adverse effects of drought and heat waves. For this reason knowledge of the occurrence of this type of extreme events and of the processes that lead to adverse conditions is of paramount importance for risk management. The negative impacts of heat waves and drought are particularly severe when anomalous conditions persist in time. As an example, a blocking event in summer 2010 resulted in one of the warmest and worst drought conditions in Russia's recent history. The latter caused a decline in Russian wheat production by more than 30%, which in turn prompted the Russian government to issue an export ban that lasted until summer 2011. In view of this, the question of course arises of how much of the negative variations in Russian wheat production levels can be explained by blocking events and other features of the large-scale atmospheric circulation. Specific questions are: how often are blocking events over Russia associated with extreme high temperatures and dry conditions? Which of the teleconnection patterns are correlated with drought and heat stress conditions in the area? Answering these questions can contribute to a develop strategies for agricultural risk management. In this contribution we present results of a study that aims at characterizing the occurrence of adverse weather conditions in south-western Russia in relation to atmospheric blocking and teleconnection patterns such as East Atlantic/Western Russia pattern, the Polar/Eurasia pattern, the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Scandinavia pattern. The analysis relies on weather data for 1980-2014 from 130 stations distributed across the wheat production area. The account for similarities in the occurrence of extreme heat, stations are clustered according to 90th percentile of daily maximum temperature. The results indicate that adverse conditions in the area are significantly correlated with the occurrence of blocking events and with the phase of some teleconnection patterns.

Future frequencies of extreme weather events in the National Wildlife Refuges of the conterminous U.S.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Martinuzzi, Sebastian; Allstadt, Andrew J.; Bateman, Brooke L.; Heglund, Patricia J.; Pidgeon, Anna M.; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Vavrus, Stephen J.; Radeloff, Volker C.

2016-01-01

Climate change is a major challenge for managers of protected areas world-wide, and managers need information about future climate conditions within protected areas. Prior studies of climate change effects in protected areas have largely focused on average climatic conditions. However, extreme weather may have stronger effects on wildlife populations and habitats than changes in averages. Our goal was to quantify future changes in the frequency of extreme heat, drought, and false springs, during the avian breeding season, in 415 National Wildlife Refuges in the conterminous United States. We analyzed spatially detailed data on extreme weather frequencies during the historical period (1950–2005) and under different scenarios of future climate change by mid- and late-21st century. We found that all wildlife refuges will likely experience substantial changes in the frequencies of extreme weather, but the types of projected changes differed among refuges. Extreme heat is projected to increase dramatically in all wildlife refuges, whereas changes in droughts and false springs are projected to increase or decrease on a regional basis. Half of all wildlife refuges are projected to see increases in frequency (> 20% higher than the current rate) in at least two types of weather extremes by mid-century. Wildlife refuges in the Southwest and Pacific Southwest are projected to exhibit the fastest rates of change, and may deserve extra attention. Climate change adaptation strategies in protected areas, such as the U.S. wildlife refuges, may need to seriously consider future changes in extreme weather, including the considerable spatial variation of these changes.

Extreme storm surge and wind wave climate scenario simulations at the Venetian littoral

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lionello, P.; Galati, M. B.; Elvini, E.

Scenario climate projections for extreme marine storms producing storm surges and wind waves are very important for the northern flat coast of the Adriatic Sea, where the area at risk includes a unique cultural and environmental heritage, and important economic activities. This study uses a shallow water model and a spectral wave model for computing the storm surge and the wind wave field, respectively, from the sea level pressure and wind fields that have been computed by the RegCM regional climate model. Simulations cover the period 1961-1990 for the present climate (control simulations) and the period 2071-2100 for the A2 and B2 scenarios. Generalized Extreme Value analysis is used for estimating values for the 10 and 100 year return times. The adequacy of these modeling tools for a reliable estimation of the climate change signal, without needing further downscaling is shown. However, this study has mainly a methodological value, because issues such as interdecadal variability and intermodel variability cannot be addressed, since the analysis is based on single model 30-year long simulations. The control simulation looks reasonably accurate for extreme value analysis, though it overestimates/underestimates the frequency of high/low surge and wind wave events with respect to observations. Scenario simulations suggest higher frequency of intense storms for the B2 scenario, but not for the A2. Likely, these differences are not the effect of climate change, but of climate multidecadal variability. Extreme storms are stronger in future scenarios, but differences are not statistically significant. Therefore this study does not provide convincing evidence for more stormy conditions in future scenarios.

First-Order SPICE Modeling of Extreme-Temperature 4H-SiC JFET Integrated Circuits

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Neudeck, Philip G.; Spry, David J.; Chen, Liang-Yu

2016-01-01

A separate submission to this conference reports that 4H-SiC Junction Field Effect Transistor (JFET) digital and analog Integrated Circuits (ICs) with two levels of metal interconnect have reproducibly demonstrated electrical operation at 500 C in excess of 1000 hours. While this progress expands the complexity and durability envelope of high temperature ICs, one important area for further technology maturation is the development of reasonably accurate and accessible computer-aided modeling and simulation tools for circuit design of these ICs. Towards this end, we report on development and verification of 25 C to 500 C SPICE simulation models of first order accuracy for this extreme-temperature durable 4H-SiC JFET IC technology. For maximum availability, the JFET IC modeling is implemented using the baseline-version SPICE NMOS LEVEL 1 model that is common to other variations of SPICE software and importantly includes the body-bias effect. The first-order accuracy of these device models is verified by direct comparison with measured experimental device characteristics.

Extreme flood event analysis in Indonesia based on rainfall intensity and recharge capacity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Narulita, Ida; Ningrum, Widya

2018-02-01

Indonesia is very vulnerable to flood disaster because it has high rainfall events throughout the year. Flood is categorized as the most important hazard disaster because it is causing social, economic and human losses. The purpose of this study is to analyze extreme flood event based on satellite rainfall dataset to understand the rainfall characteristic (rainfall intensity, rainfall pattern, etc.) that happened before flood disaster in the area for monsoonal, equatorial and local rainfall types. Recharge capacity will be analyzed using land cover and soil distribution. The data used in this study are CHIRPS rainfall satellite data on 0.05 ° spatial resolution and daily temporal resolution, and GSMap satellite rainfall dataset operated by JAXA on 1-hour temporal resolution and 0.1 ° spatial resolution, land use and soil distribution map for recharge capacity analysis. The rainfall characteristic before flooding, and recharge capacity analysis are expected to become the important information for flood mitigation in Indonesia.

Changes in Extremely Hot Summers over the Global Land Area under Various Warming Targets

PubMed Central

Wang, Lei; Huang, Jianbin; Luo, Yong; Yao, Yao; Zhao, Zongci

2015-01-01

Summer temperature extremes over the global land area were investigated by comparing 26 models of the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) with observations from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) and the Climate Research Unit (CRU). Monthly data of the observations and models were averaged for each season, and statistics were calculated for individual models before averaging them to obtain ensemble means. The summers with temperature anomalies (relative to 1951–1980) exceeding 3σ (σ is based on the local internal variability) are defined as “extremely hot”. The models well reproduced the statistical characteristics evolution, and partly captured the spatial distributions of historical summer temperature extremes. If the global mean temperature increases 2°C relative to the pre-industrial level, “extremely hot” summers are projected to occur over nearly 40% of the land area (multi-model ensemble mean projection). Summers that exceed 5σ warming are projected to occur over approximately 10% of the global land area, which were rarely observed during the reference period. Scenarios reaching warming levels of 3°C to 5°C were also analyzed. After exceeding the 5°C warming target, “extremely hot” summers are projected to occur throughout the entire global land area, and summers that exceed 5σ warming would become common over 70% of the land area. In addition, the areas affected by “extremely hot” summers are expected to rapidly expand by more than 25%/°C as the global mean temperature increases by up to 3°C before slowing to less than 16%/°C as the temperature continues to increase by more than 3°C. The area that experiences summers with warming of 5σ or more above the warming target of 2°C is likely to maintain rapid expansion of greater than 17%/°C. To reduce the impacts and damage from severely hot summers, the global mean temperature increase should remain low. PMID:26090931

Effect of low temperatures on osserous and cartilaginous tissues

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pankov, Y. Y.; Babiychuk, G. A.; Malyshkina, S. V.; Zhigun, A. I.

1983-01-01

The use of extreme cold to treat tumoral afflictions of the extremities is discussed. Cryogenic methods and instruments are discussed, and the levels of accumulated knowledge in this area (as well as the areas still in question) are evaluated. The overall promise for cryogenic methods of treatment is acknowledged, and areas which need further development are noted.

[Individual Progress Program for the Extremely Gifted Student in the Greater Seattle Area.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Norsen, Barbara G.; Wick, Christine

The Individual Progress Program (IPP) is an approach designed to serve extremely advanced gifted students (grades 1 through 9) in the Seattle area. IPP is intended to meet students' unmet educational needs by allowing them to progress at their own accelerated pace through a broadly based curriculum while also pursuing interest areas. The program…

The effect of land use change to maximum and minimum discharge in Cikapundung River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuntoro, Arno Adi; Putro, Anton Winarto; Kusuma, M. Syahril B.; Natasaputra, Suardi

2017-11-01

Land use change are become issues for many river basin in the world, including Cikapundung River Basin in West Java. Cikapundung River is one of the main water sources of Bandung City water supply system. In the other hand, as one of the tributaries of Citarum River, Cikapundung also contributes to flooding in the Southern part of Bandung. Therefore, it is important to analyze the effect of land use change on Cikapundung river discharge, to maintain the reliability of water supply system and to minimize flooding in Bandung Basin. Land use map of Cikapundung River in 2009 shows that residential area (49.7%) and mixed farming (42.6%), are the most dominant land use type, while dry agriculture (19.4%) and forest (21.8%) cover the rest. The effect of land use change in Cikapundung River Basin is simulated by using Hydrological Simulation Program FORTRAN (HSPF) through 3 land use change scenarios: extreme, optimum, and existing. By using the calibrated parameters, simulation of the extreme land use change scenario with the decrease of forest area by 77.7% and increase of developed area by 57.0% from the existing condition resulted in increase of Qmax/Qmin ratio from 5.24 to 6.10. Meanwhile, simulation of the optimum land use change scenario with the expansion of forest area by 75.26% from the existing condition resulted in decrease of Qmax/Qmin ratio from 5.24 to 4.14. Although Qmax/Qmin ratio of Cikapundung is still relatively small, but the simulation shows the important of water resources analysis in providing river health indicator, as input for land use planning.

Public Perception of Climate Change and the New Climate Dice

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hansen, James; Sato, Makiko; Ruedy, Reto

2012-01-01

"Climate dice", describing the chance of unusually warm or cool seasons, have become more and more "loaded" in the past 30 years, coincident with rapid global warming. The distribution of seasonal mean temperature anomalies has shifted toward higher temperatures and the range of anomalies has increased. An important change is the emergence of a category of summertime extremely hot outliers, more than three standard deviations (3 sigma) warmer than the climatology of the 1951-1980 base period. This hot extreme, which covered much less than 1% of Earth's surface during the base period, now typically covers about 10% of the land area. It follows that we can state, with a high degree of confidence, that extreme anomalies such as those in Texas and Oklahoma in 2011 and Moscow in 2010 were a consequence of global warming, because their likelihood in the absence of global warming was exceedingly small. We discuss practical implications of this substantial, growing, climate change.

Responses of tree species to heat waves and extreme heat events.

PubMed

Teskey, Robert; Wertin, Timothy; Bauweraerts, Ingvar; Ameye, Maarten; McGuire, Mary Anne; Steppe, Kathy

2015-09-01

The number and intensity of heat waves has increased, and this trend is likely to continue throughout the 21st century. Often, heat waves are accompanied by drought conditions. It is projected that the global land area experiencing heat waves will double by 2020, and quadruple by 2040. Extreme heat events can impact a wide variety of tree functions. At the leaf level, photosynthesis is reduced, photooxidative stress increases, leaves abscise and the growth rate of remaining leaves decreases. In some species, stomatal conductance increases at high temperatures, which may be a mechanism for leaf cooling. At the whole plant level, heat stress can decrease growth and shift biomass allocation. When drought stress accompanies heat waves, the negative effects of heat stress are exacerbated and can lead to tree mortality. However, some species exhibit remarkable tolerance to thermal stress. Responses include changes that minimize stress on photosynthesis and reductions in dark respiration. Although there have been few studies to date, there is evidence of within-species genetic variation in thermal tolerance, which could be important to exploit in production forestry systems. Understanding the mechanisms of differing tree responses to extreme temperature events may be critically important for understanding how tree species will be affected by climate change. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Vulnerability to extreme heat and climate change: is ethnicity a factor?

PubMed

Hansen, Alana; Bi, Linda; Saniotis, Arthur; Nitschke, Monika

2013-07-29

With a warming climate, it is important to identify sub-populations at risk of harm during extreme heat. Several international studies have reported that individuals from ethnic minorities are at increased risk of heat-related illness, for reasons that are not often discussed. The aim of this article is to investigate the underpinning reasons as to why ethnicity may be associated with susceptibility to extreme heat, and how this may be relevant to Australia's population. Drawing upon literary sources, the authors provide commentary on this important, yet poorly understood area of heat research. Social and economic disparities, living conditions, language barriers, and occupational exposure are among the many factors contributing to heat-susceptibility among minority ethnic groups in the United States. However, there is a knowledge gap about socio-cultural influences on vulnerability in other countries. More research needs to be undertaken to determine the effects of heat on tourists, migrants, and refugees who are confronted with a different climatic environment. Thorough epidemiological investigations of the association between ethnicity and heat-related health outcomes are required, and this could be assisted with better reporting of nationality data in health statistics. Climate change adaptation strategies in Australia and elsewhere need to be ethnically inclusive and cognisant of an upward trend in the proportion of the population who are migrants and refugees.

Clinical outcome of dedifferentiated liposarcoma in the extremities: A retrospective case series of 7 patients.

PubMed

Kito, Munehisa; Yoshimura, Yasuo; Isobe, Ken'ichi; Aoki, Kaoru; Suzuki, Shuichiro; Tanaka, Atsushi; Okamoto, Masanori; Sano, Kenji; Kato, Hiroyuki

2016-09-01

Wide resection is the generally recommended surgical treatment for dedifferentiated liposarcoma (DDLPS) in the extremities. However, it may be appropriate to distinguish the surgical margin of low-grade atypical lipomatous tumor (ALT)/well-differentiated liposarcoma (WDLPS) area from the high-grade dedifferentiated area, because the low- and high-grade areas can be clearly separated, both radiologically and histologically. This study re-evaluated the details of surgical margin of DDLPS in the extremities, and aimed to investigate the optimal surgical margin and the usefulness of adjuvant therapy for DDLPS in the extremities. Seven patients diagnosed with DDLPS in the extremities and treated between 1995 and 2013 were analyzed. The use of adjuvant therapy before and after surgery was assessed, and the surgical margins for the ALT/WDLPS and dedifferentiated areas were re-evaluated by using the specimens resected at surgery. Subsequently, the recurrence rates, metastatic rates, and oncological outcomes were examined. Four and three patients had wide (adequate wide margin, n = 3; inadequate wide margin, n = 1) and marginal margins for the dedifferentiated area, respectively, while three and four patients had wide (adequate wide margin, n = 2; inadequate wide margin, n = 1) and marginal margins for the ALT/WDLPS area, respectively. Postoperative radiotherapy was performed in three patients with an inadequate wide margin or a marginal margin for the dedifferentiated area. No patient had local recurrence. Distant metastases occurred in two patients. These patients died of their disease. The other five patients were disease-free. The ALT/WDLPS and dedifferentiated areas in the tumor margin may be better to be considered separately in determining the appropriate resection extent for DDLPS in the extremities. Postoperative radiotherapy may provide good local control for cases with a narrow surgical margin. Copyright © 2016 The Japanese Orthopaedic Association. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Everyday Banality in a Documentary by Teenage Women: Between the Trivial and the Extreme. Schooling and Desiring in Contexts of Extreme Urban Poverty

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Grinberg, Silvia

2010-01-01

In this article, I offer some reflections on a video documentary workshop for students in the first year of middle school. The workshop, which was held in 2008, took place in a school in an area of extreme urban poverty in the metropolitan area of Buenos Aires, Argentina, specifically in one of the more and more common spaces usually called…

Integrating Climate Change Into Nursing Curricula.

PubMed

McDermott-Levy, Ruth; Jackman-Murphy, Kathryn P; Leffers, Jeanne M; Jordan, Lisa

2018-03-28

Climate change is a significant threat to human health across the life cycle. Nurses play an important role in mitigation, adaptation, and resilience to climate change. The use of health care resources, air quality and extreme heat, mental health, and natural disasters are major content areas across undergraduate nursing curricula that influence or are influenced by climate change. Teaching strategies and resources are offered to prepare nursing students to address climate change and human health.

Effects of virtual reality-based bilateral upper-extremity training on brain activity in post-stroke patients.

PubMed

Lee, Su-Hyun; Kim, Yu-Mi; Lee, Byoung-Hee

2015-07-01

[Purpose] This study investigated the therapeutic effects of virtual reality-based bilateral upper-extremity training on brain activity in patients with stroke. [Subjects and Methods] Eighteen chronic stroke patients were divided into two groups: the virtual reality-based bilateral upper-extremity training group (n = 10) and the bilateral upper-limb training group (n = 8). The virtual reality-based bilateral upper-extremity training group performed bilateral upper-extremity exercises in a virtual reality environment, while the bilateral upper-limb training group performed only bilateral upper-extremity exercise. All training was conducted 30 minutes per day, three times per week for six weeks, followed by brain activity evaluation. [Results] Electroencephalography showed significant increases in concentration in the frontopolar 2 and frontal 4 areas, and significant increases in brain activity in the frontopolar 1 and frontal 3 areas in the virtual reality-based bilateral upper-extremity training group. [Conclusion] Virtual reality-based bilateral upper-extremity training can improve the brain activity of stroke patients. Thus, virtual reality-based bilateral upper-extremity training is feasible and beneficial for improving brain activation in stroke patients.

Drought assessment in the Duero basin (Central Spain) by means of multivariate extreme value statistics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kallache, M.

2012-04-01

Droughts cause important losses. On the Iberian Peninsula, for example, non-irrigated agriculture and the tourism sector are affected in regular intervals. The goal of this study is the description of droughts and their dependence in the Duero basin in Central Spain. To do so, daily or monthly precipitation data is used. Here cumulative precipitation deficits below a threshold define meteorological droughts. This drought indicator is similar to the commonly used standard precipitation index. However, here the focus lies on the modeling of severe droughts, which is done by applying multivariate extreme value theory (MEVT) to model extreme drought events. Data from several stations are assessed jointly, thus the uncertainty of the results is reduced. Droughts are a complex phenomenon, their severity, spatial extension and duration has to be taken into account. Our approach captures severity and spatial extension. In general we find a high correlation between deficit volumes and drought duration, thus the duration is not explicitely modeled. We apply a MEVT model with asymmetric logistic dependence function, which is capable to model asymptotic dependence and independence (cf. Ramos and Ledford, 2009). To summarize the information on the dependence in the joint tail of the extreme drought events, we utilise the fragility index (Geluk et al., 2007). Results show that droughts also occur frequently in winter. Moreover, it is very common for one site to suffer dry conditions, whilst neighboring areas experience normal or even humid conditions. Interpolation is thus difficult. Bivariate extremal dependence is present in the data. However, most stations are at least asymptotically independent. The according fragility indices are important information for risk calculations. The emerging spatial patterns for bivariate dependence are mostly influenced by topography. When looking at the dependence between more than two stations, it shows that joint extremes can occur more often than randomly for up to 6 stations, this depends on the distance between the stations.

[Vulnerability assessment of eco-environment in Yimeng mountainous area of Shandong Province based on SRP conceptual model].

PubMed

Liu, Zheng-jia; Yu, Xing-xiu; Li, Lei; Huang, Mei

2011-08-01

Based on the ecological sensitivity-resilience-pressure (SRP) conceptual model, and selecting 13 indices including landscape diversity index, soil erosion, and elevation, etc. , the vulnerability of the eco-environment in Yimeng mountainous area of Shandong Province was assessed under the support of GIS and by using principal component analysis and hierarchy analytical method. According to the eco-environmental vulnerability index (EVI) values, the eco-environment vulnerability of study area was classified into 5 levels, i.e., slight (<1.8), light (1.8-2.8), moderate (2.8-3.5), heavy (3.5-4.0), and extreme vulnerability (>4.0). In the study area, moderately vulnerable area occupied 43.3% of the total, while the slightly, lightly, heavily, and extremely vulnerable areas occupied 6.1%, 33.8%, 15.9%, and 0.9%, respectively. The heavily and extremely vulnerable areas mainly located in the topographically complicated hilly area or the hill-plain ecotone with frequent human activities.

Gis-Based Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis for Forest Fire Risk Mapping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akay, A. E.; Erdoğan, A.

2017-11-01

The forested areas along the coastal zone of the Mediterranean region in Turkey are classified as first-degree fire sensitive areas. Forest fires are major environmental disaster that affects the sustainability of forest ecosystems. Besides, forest fires result in important economic losses and even threaten human lives. Thus, it is critical to determine the forested areas with fire risks and thereby minimize the damages on forest resources by taking necessary precaution measures in these areas. The risk of forest fire can be assessed based on various factors such as forest vegetation structures (tree species, crown closure, tree stage), topographic features (slope and aspect), and climatic parameters (temperature, wind). In this study, GIS-based Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) method was used to generate forest fire risk map. The study was implemented in the forested areas within Yayla Forest Enterprise Chiefs at Dursunbey Forest Enterprise Directorate which is classified as first degree fire sensitive area. In the solution process, "extAhp 2.0" plug-in running Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) method in ArcGIS 10.4.1 was used to categorize study area under five fire risk classes: extreme risk, high risk, moderate risk, and low risk. The results indicated that 23.81 % of the area was of extreme risk, while 25.81 % was of high risk. The result indicated that the most effective criterion was tree species, followed by tree stages. The aspect had the least effective criterion on forest fire risk. It was revealed that GIS techniques integrated with MCDA methods are effective tools to quickly estimate forest fire risk at low cost. The integration of these factors into GIS can be very useful to determine forested areas with high fire risk and also to plan forestry management after fire.

Psychological and Physical Impacts of Extreme Events on Older Adults: Implications for Communications.

PubMed

McClelland, Erin; Amlôt, Richard; Rogers, M Brooke; Rubin, G James; Tesh, John; Pearce, Julia M

2017-02-01

In recent years, a series of large-scale, high-profile natural disasters and terrorist attacks have demonstrated the need for thorough and effective disaster preparedness. While these extreme events affect communities and societies as a whole, they also carry specific risks for particular population groups. Crises such as Hurricane Katrina and the 2011 earthquake and tsunami disaster in Japan have illustrated the risk of significant and disproportionate morbidity and mortality among older adults during disasters. Age does not necessarily equate to vulnerability, but many physical and psychological consequences of the aging process can increase the risk of adverse outcomes. As the older population grows, so too does the need to ensure that adequate, practical, and appropriate measures exist to offset the specific risks from extreme events associated with this subpopulation. Effective risk and crisis communication plays a key role in mitigating the extent to which older adults are differentially affected during extreme events. By identifying the specific issues affecting older adults, this review highlights important areas for action for practitioners and policy-makers, particularly in the realm of crisis communication. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2017;11:127-134).

Hot days induced by precipitation deficits at the global scale

PubMed Central

Mueller, Brigitte; Seneviratne, Sonia I.

2012-01-01

Global warming increases the occurrence probability of hot extremes, and improving the predictability of such events is thus becoming of critical importance. Hot extremes have been shown to be induced by surface moisture deficits in some regions. In this study, we assess whether such a relationship holds at the global scale. We find that wide areas of the world display a strong relationship between the number of hot days in the regions’ hottest month and preceding precipitation deficits. The occurrence probability of an above-average number of hot days is over 70% after precipitation deficits in most parts of South America as well as the Iberian Peninsula and Eastern Australia, and over 60% in most of North America and Eastern Europe, while it is below 30–40% after wet conditions in these regions. Using quantile regression analyses, we show that the impact of precipitation deficits on the number of hot days is asymmetric, i.e. extreme high numbers of hot days are most strongly influenced. This relationship also applies to the 2011 extreme event in Texas. These findings suggest that effects of soil moisture-temperature coupling are geographically more widespread than commonly assumed. PMID:22802672

Anthropometric and computerized tomographic measurements of lower extremity lean body mass.

PubMed

Buckley, D C; Kudsk, K A; Rose, B S; Fatzinger, P; Koetting, C A; Schlatter, M

1987-02-01

The loss of lean muscle mass is one of the hallmarks of protein-calorie malnutrition. Anthropometry is a standardized technique used to assess the response of muscle mass to nutrition therapy by quantifying the muscle and fat compartments. That technique does not accurately reflect actual limb composition, whereas computerized tomography does. Twenty lower extremities on randomly chosen men and women patients were evaluated by anthropometry and computerized tomography. Total area, muscle plus bone area, total volume, and muscle plus bone volume were correlated, using Heymsfield's equation and computerized tomography-generated areas. Anthropometrics overestimated total and muscle plus bone cross-sectional areas at almost every level. Anthropometry overestimated total area and total volume by 5% to 10% but overestimated muscle plus bone area and muscle plus bone volume by as much as 40%. Anthropometry, while easily performed and useful in large population groups for epidemiological studies, offers a poor assessment of lower extremity composition. On the other hand, computerized tomography is also easily performed and, while impractical for large population groups, does offer an accurate assessment of the lower extremity tissue compartments and is an instrument that might be used in research on lean muscle mass.

Snowmelt-runoff Model Utilizing Remotely-sensed Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rango, A.

1985-01-01

Remotely sensed snow cover information is the critical data input for the Snowmelt-Runoff Model (SRM), which was developed to simulatke discharge from mountain basins where snowmelt is an important component of runoff. Of simple structure, the model requires only input of temperature, precipitation, and snow covered area. SRM was run successfully on two widely separated basins. The simulations on the Kings River basin are significant because of the large basin area (4000 sq km) and the adequate performance in the most extreme drought year of record (1976). The performance of SRM on the Okutadami River basin was important because it was accomplished with minimum snow cover data available. Tables show: optimum and minimum conditions for model application; basin sizes and elevations where SRM was applied; and SRM strengths and weaknesses. Graphs show results of discharge simulation.

Survey of upper extremity injuries among martial arts participants.

PubMed

Diesselhorst, Matthew M; Rayan, Ghazi M; Pasque, Charles B; Peyton Holder, R

2013-01-01

To survey participants at various experience levels of different martial arts (MA) about upper extremity injuries sustained during training and fighting. A 21-s question survey was designed and utilised. The survey was divided into four groups (Demographics, Injury Description, Injury Mechanism, and Miscellaneous information) to gain knowledge about upper extremity injuries sustained during martial arts participation. Chi-square testing was utilised to assess for significant associations. Males comprised 81% of respondents. Involvement in multiple forms of MA was the most prevalent (38%). The hand/wrist was the most common area injured (53%), followed by the shoulder/upper arm (27%) and the forearm/elbow (19%). Joint sprains/muscle strains were the most frequent injuries reported overall (47%), followed by abrasions/bruises (26%). Dislocations of the upper extremity were reported by 47% of participants while fractures occurred in 39%. Surgeries were required for 30% of participants. Females were less likely to require surgery and more likely to have shoulder and elbow injuries. Males were more likely to have hand injuries. Participants of Karate and Tae Kwon Do were more likely to have injuries to their hands, while participants of multiple forms were more likely to sustain injuries to their shoulders/upper arms and more likely to develop chronic upper extremity symptoms. With advanced level of training the likelihood of developing chronic upper extremity symptoms increases, and multiple surgeries were required. Hand protection was associated with a lower risk of hand injuries. Martial arts can be associated with substantial upper extremity injuries that may require surgery and extended time away from participation. Injuries may result in chronic upper extremity symptoms. Hand protection is important for reducing injuries to the hand and wrist.

Trends in 1970-2010 southern California surface maximum temperatures: extremes and heat waves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghebreegziabher, Amanuel T.

Daily maximum temperatures from 1970-2010 were obtained from the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) for 28 South Coast Air Basin (SoCAB) Cooperative Network (COOP) sites. Analyses were carried out on the entire data set, as well as on the 1970-1974 and 2006-2010 sub-periods, including construction of spatial distributions and time-series trends of both summer-average and annual-maximum values and of the frequency of two and four consecutive "daytime" heat wave events. Spatial patterns of average and extreme values showed three areas consistent with climatological SoCAB flow patterns: cold coastal, warm inland low-elevation, and cool further-inland mountain top. Difference (2006-2010 minus 1970-1974) distributions of both average and extreme-value trends were consistent with the shorter period (1970-2005) study of previous study, as they showed the expected inland regional warming and a "reverse-reaction" cooling in low elevation coastal and inland areas open to increasing sea breeze flows. Annual-extreme trends generally showed cooling at sites below 600 m and warming at higher elevations. As the warming trends of the extremes were larger than those of the averages, regional warming thus impacts extremes more than averages. Spatial distributions of hot-day frequencies showed expected maximum at inland low-elevation sites. Regional warming again thus induced increases at both elevated-coastal areas, but low-elevation areas showed reverse-reaction decreases.

Climate change in the Brazilian northeast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodrigues, Regina R.; Haarsma, Reindert J.; Hoelzemann, Judith J.

2012-10-01

Climate Change, Impacts and Vulnerabilities in Brazil: Preparing the Brazilian Northeast for the Future; Natal, Brazil, 27 May to 01 June 2012 The variability of the semiarid climate of the Brazilian northeast has enormous environmental and social implications. Because most of the population in this area depends on subsistence agriculture, periods of severe drought in the past have caused extreme poverty and subsequent migration to urban centers. From the ecological point of view, frequent and prolonged droughts can lead to the desertification of large areas. Understanding the causes of rainfall variability, in particular periods of severe drought, is crucial for accurate forecasting, mitigation, and adaptation in this important region of Brazil.

Characterization of extreme precipitation within atmospheric river events over California

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jeon, S.; Prabhat,; Byna, S.

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are large, spatially coherent weather systems with high concentrations of elevated water vapor. These systems often cause severe downpours and flooding over the western coastal United States – and with the availability of more atmospheric moisture in the future under global warming we expect ARs to play an important role as potential causes of extreme precipitation changes. Therefore, we aim to investigate changes in extreme precipitation properties correlated with AR events in a warmer climate, which are large-scale meteorological patterns affecting the weather and climate of California. We have recently developed the TECA (Toolkit for Extreme Climatemore » Analysis) software for automatically identifying and tracking features in climate data sets. Specifically, we can now identify ARs that make landfall on the western coast of North America. Based on this detection procedure, we can investigate the impact of ARs by exploring the spatial extent of AR precipitation using climate model (CMIP5) simulations and characterize spatial patterns of dependence for future projections between AR precipitation extremes under climate change within the statistical framework. Our results show that AR events in the future RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway)8.5 scenario (2076–2100) tend to produce heavier rainfall with higher frequency and longer days than events from the historical run (1981–2005). We also find that the dependence between extreme precipitation events has a shorter spatial range, within localized areas in California, under the high future emissions scenario than under the historical run.« less

Characterization of extreme precipitation within atmospheric river events over California

DOE PAGES

Jeon, S.; Prabhat,; Byna, S.; ...

2015-11-17

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are large, spatially coherent weather systems with high concentrations of elevated water vapor. These systems often cause severe downpours and flooding over the western coastal United States – and with the availability of more atmospheric moisture in the future under global warming we expect ARs to play an important role as potential causes of extreme precipitation changes. Therefore, we aim to investigate changes in extreme precipitation properties correlated with AR events in a warmer climate, which are large-scale meteorological patterns affecting the weather and climate of California. We have recently developed the TECA (Toolkit for Extreme Climatemore » Analysis) software for automatically identifying and tracking features in climate data sets. Specifically, we can now identify ARs that make landfall on the western coast of North America. Based on this detection procedure, we can investigate the impact of ARs by exploring the spatial extent of AR precipitation using climate model (CMIP5) simulations and characterize spatial patterns of dependence for future projections between AR precipitation extremes under climate change within the statistical framework. Our results show that AR events in the future RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway)8.5 scenario (2076–2100) tend to produce heavier rainfall with higher frequency and longer days than events from the historical run (1981–2005). We also find that the dependence between extreme precipitation events has a shorter spatial range, within localized areas in California, under the high future emissions scenario than under the historical run.« less

Challenging the assumption of habitat limitation: An example from centrarchid fishes over an intermediate spatial scale

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gutreuter, S.

2004-01-01

Habitat rehabilitation efforts are predicated on the frequently untested assumption that habitat is limiting to populations. These efforts are typically costly and will be ineffective if habitat is not limiting. Therefore it is important to assess, rather than assume, habitat limitation wherever habitat rehabilitation projects are considered. Catch-count data from a standardized probability-based stratified-random monitoring programme were examined for indirect evidence of backwater habitat limitation by centrarchid fishes in the Upper Mississippi River System. The monitoring design enabled fitting statistical models of the association between mean catch at the spatial scale of tens of river kilometres and the percentage of contiguous aquatic area in backwater at least 1 m deep by maximizing a stratum-area weighted negative binomial log-likelihood function. Statistical models containing effects for backwater limitation failed to account for substantial variation in the data. However, 95% confidence intervals on the backwater parameter estimates excluded zero, indicating that population abundance may be limited by backwater prevalence where backwaters are extremely scarce. The combined results indicate, at most, a weak signal of backwater limitation where backwaters are extremely scarce in the lower reaches, but not elsewhere in the Upper Mississippi River System. This suggests that habitat restoration projects designed to increase the area of backwaters suitable for winter survival of centrarchids are unlikely to produce measurable benefits over intermediate spatial scales in much of the Upper Mississippi River System, and indicates the importance of correct identification of limiting processes. Published in 2004 by John Wiley and Sons, Ltd.

Identifying Population Vulnerable to Extreme Heat Events in San Jose, California.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rivera, A. L.

2016-12-01

The extreme heat days not only make cities less comfortable for living but also they are associated with increased morbidity and mortality. Mapping studies have demonstrated spatial variability in heat vulnerability. A study conducted between 2000 and 2011 in New York City shows that deaths during heat waves was more likely to occur in black individuals, at home in census tracts which received greater public assistance. This map project intends to portray areas in San Jose California that are vulnerable to extreme heat events. The variables considered to build a vulnerability index are: land surface temperature, vegetated areas (NDVI), and people exposed to these area (population density).

Black holes and black strings of N = 2, d = 5 supergravity in the H-FGK formalism

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meessen, Patrick; Ortín, Tomás; Perz, Jan; Shahbazi, C. S.

2012-09-01

We study general classes and properties of extremal and non-extremal static black-hole solutions of N = 2, d = 5 supergravity coupled to vector multiplets using the recently proposed H-FGK formalism, which we also extend to static black strings. We explain how to determine the integration constants and physical parameters of the blackhole and black-string solutions. We derive some model-independent statements, including the transformation of non-extremal flow equations to the form of those for the extremal flow. We apply our methods to the construction of example solutions (among others a new extremal string solution of heterotic string theory on K 3 × S 1). In the cases where we have calculated it explicitly, the product of areas of the inner and outer horizon of a non-extremal solution coincides with the square of the moduli-independent area of the horizon of the extremal solution with the same charges.

The Imprint of Extreme Climate Events in Century-Long Time Series of Wood Anatomical Traits in High-Elevation Conifers

PubMed Central

Carrer, Marco; Brunetti, Michele; Castagneri, Daniele

2016-01-01

Extreme climate events are of key importance for forest ecosystems. However, both the inherent infrequency, stochasticity and multiplicity of extreme climate events, and the array of biological responses, challenges investigations. To cope with the long life cycle of trees and the paucity of the extreme events themselves, our inferences should be based on long-term observations. In this context, tree rings and the related xylem anatomical traits represent promising sources of information, due to the wide time perspective and quality of the information they can provide. Here we test, on two high-elevation conifers (Larix decidua and Picea abies sampled at 2100 m a.s.l. in the Eastern Alps), the associations among temperature extremes during the growing season and xylem anatomical traits, specifically the number of cells per ring (CN), cell wall thickness (CWT), and cell diameter (CD). To better track the effect of extreme events over the growing season, tree rings were partitioned in 10 sectors. Climate variability has been reconstructed, for 1800–2011 at monthly resolution and for 1926–2011 at daily resolution, by exploiting the excellent availability of very long and high quality instrumental records available for the surrounding area, and taking into account the relationship between meteorological variables and site topographical settings. Summer temperature influenced anatomical traits of both species, and tree-ring anatomical profiles resulted as being associated to temperature extremes. Most of the extreme values in anatomical traits occurred with warm (positive extremes) or cold (negative) conditions. However, 0–34% of occurrences did not match a temperature extreme event. Specifically, CWT and CN extremes were more clearly associated to climate than CD, which presented a bias to track cold extremes. Dendroanatomical analysis, coupled to high-quality daily-resolved climate records, seems a promising approach to study the effects of extreme events on trees, but further investigations are needed to improve our comprehension of the critical role of such elusive events in forest ecosystems. PMID:27242880

Self-Formed Channel Devices Based on Vertically Grown 2D Materials with Large-Surface-Area and Their Potential for Chemical Sensor Applications.

PubMed

Kim, Chaeeun; Park, Jun-Cheol; Choi, Sun Young; Kim, Yonghun; Seo, Seung-Young; Park, Tae-Eon; Kwon, Se-Hun; Cho, Byungjin; Ahn, Ji-Hoon

2018-04-01

2D layered materials with sensitive surfaces are promising materials for use in chemical sensing devices, owing to their extremely large surface-to-volume ratios. However, most chemical sensors based on 2D materials are used in the form of laterally defined active channels, in which the active area is limited to the actual device dimensions. Therefore, a novel approach for fabricating self-formed active-channel devices is proposed based on 2D semiconductor materials with very large surface areas, and their potential gas sensing ability is examined. First, the vertical growth phenomenon of SnS 2 nanocrystals is investigated with large surface area via metal-assisted growth using prepatterned metal electrodes, and then self-formed active-channel devices are suggested without additional pattering through the selective synthesis of SnS 2 nanosheets on prepatterned metal electrodes. The self-formed active-channel device exhibits extremely high response values (>2000% at 10 ppm) for NO 2 along with excellent NO 2 selectivity. Moreover, the NO 2 gas response of the gas sensing device with vertically self-formed SnS 2 nanosheets is more than two orders of magnitude higher than that of a similar exfoliated SnS 2 -based device. These results indicate that the facile device fabrication method would be applicable to various systems in which surface area plays an important role. © 2018 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Changes and Attribution of Extreme Precipitation in Climate Models: Subdaily and Daily Scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, W.; Villarini, G.; Scoccimarro, E.; Vecchi, G. A.

2017-12-01

Extreme precipitation events are responsible for numerous hazards, including flooding, soil erosion, and landslides. Because of their significant socio-economic impacts, the attribution and projection of these events is of crucial importance to improve our response, mitigation and adaptation strategies. Here we present results from our ongoing work.In terms of attribution, we use idealized experiments [pre-industrial control experiment (PI) and 1% per year increase (1%CO2) in atmospheric CO2] from ten general circulation models produced under the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and the fraction of attributable risk to examine the CO2 effects on extreme precipitation at the sub-daily and daily scales. We find that the increased CO2 concentration substantially increases the odds of the occurrence of sub-daily precipitation extremes compared to the daily scale in most areas of the world, with the exception of some regions in the sub-tropics, likely in relation to the subsidence of the Hadley Cell. These results point to the large role that atmospheric CO2 plays in extreme precipitation under an idealized framework. Furthermore, we investigate the changes in extreme precipitation events with the Community Earth System Model (CESM) climate experiments using the scenarios consistent with the 1.5°C and 2°C temperature targets. We find that the frequency of annual extreme precipitation at a global scale increases in both 1.5°C and 2°C scenarios until around 2070, after which the magnitudes of the trend become much weaker or even negative. Overall, the frequency of global annual extreme precipitation is similar between 1.5°C and 2°C for the period 2006-2035, and the changes in extreme precipitation in individual seasons are consistent with those for the entire year. The frequency of extreme precipitation in the 2°C experiments is higher than for the 1.5°C experiment after the late 2030s, particularly for the period 2071-2100.

High-energy supercapacitors based on hierarchical porous carbon with an ultrahigh ion-accessible surface area in ionic liquid electrolytes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhong, Hui; Xu, Fei; Li, Zenghui; Fu, Ruowen; Wu, Dingcai

2013-05-01

A very important yet really challenging issue to address is how to greatly increase the energy density of supercapacitors to approach or even exceed those of batteries without sacrificing the power density. Herein we report the fabrication of a new class of ultrahigh surface area hierarchical porous carbon (UHSA-HPC) based on the pore formation and widening of polystyrene-derived HPC by KOH activation, and highlight its superior ability for energy storage in supercapacitors with ionic liquid (IL) as electrolyte. The UHSA-HPC with a surface area of more than 3000 m2 g-1 shows an extremely high energy density, i.e., 118 W h kg-1 at a power density of 100 W kg-1. This is ascribed to its unique hierarchical nanonetwork structure with a large number of small-sized nanopores for IL storage and an ideal meso-/macroporous network for IL transfer.A very important yet really challenging issue to address is how to greatly increase the energy density of supercapacitors to approach or even exceed those of batteries without sacrificing the power density. Herein we report the fabrication of a new class of ultrahigh surface area hierarchical porous carbon (UHSA-HPC) based on the pore formation and widening of polystyrene-derived HPC by KOH activation, and highlight its superior ability for energy storage in supercapacitors with ionic liquid (IL) as electrolyte. The UHSA-HPC with a surface area of more than 3000 m2 g-1 shows an extremely high energy density, i.e., 118 W h kg-1 at a power density of 100 W kg-1. This is ascribed to its unique hierarchical nanonetwork structure with a large number of small-sized nanopores for IL storage and an ideal meso-/macroporous network for IL transfer. Electronic supplementary information (ESI) available: Sample preparation, material characterization, electrochemical characterization and specific mass capacitance and energy density. See DOI: 10.1039/c3nr00738c

Hatching delays in great tits and blue tits in response to an extreme cold spell: a long-term study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Glądalski, Michał; Bańbura, Mirosława; Kaliński, Adam; Markowski, Marcin; Skwarska, Joanna; Wawrzyniak, Jarosław; Zieliński, Piotr; Bańbura, Jerzy

2018-04-01

Variation in ambient temperature affects various life stages of organisms. It has been suggested that climate change not only implies higher global temperatures but also more unpredictable weather and more frequent extreme weather events. Temperature has a major influence on the optimal laying-incubation-hatching dates of insectivorous passerines, because it poses energetic constraints and affects the timing of food abundance. We have been studying breeding characteristics of great tits Parus major and blue tits Cyanistes caeruleus in two areas, an urban parkland and a deciduous forest, around the city of Łódź since 2002. During the egg-laying period in 2017, both tit species at both study areas faced an unusual cold spell as reflected by a sudden decrease in the mean ambient temperature to ca. 2-3 °C for about 5 days, which caused mean hatching delays of up to 6 days. Since flexibility of behavior plays a major role in adjusting to unpredictable weather conditions, examining its limits may be an important goal for future research.

Preparation of Hydrophobic Metal-Organic Frameworks via Plasma Enhanced Chemical Vapor Deposition of Perfluoroalkanes for the Removal of Ammonia

PubMed Central

DeCoste, Jared B.; Peterson, Gregory W.

2013-01-01

Plasma enhanced chemical vapor deposition (PECVD) of perfluoroalkanes has long been studied for tuning the wetting properties of surfaces. For high surface area microporous materials, such as metal-organic frameworks (MOFs), unique challenges present themselves for PECVD treatments. Herein the protocol for development of a MOF that was previously unstable to humid conditions is presented. The protocol describes the synthesis of Cu-BTC (also known as HKUST-1), the treatment of Cu-BTC with PECVD of perfluoroalkanes, the aging of materials under humid conditions, and the subsequent ammonia microbreakthrough experiments on milligram quantities of microporous materials. Cu-BTC has an extremely high surface area (~1,800 m2/g) when compared to most materials or surfaces that have been previously treated by PECVD methods. Parameters such as chamber pressure and treatment time are extremely important to ensure the perfluoroalkane plasma penetrates to and reacts with the inner MOF surfaces. Furthermore, the protocol for ammonia microbreakthrough experiments set forth here can be utilized for a variety of test gases and microporous materials. PMID:24145623

The genomes of three Bradyrhizobium sp. isolated from root nodules of Lupinus albescens grown in extremely poor soils display important genes for resistance to environmental stress.

PubMed

Granada, Camille E; Vargas, Luciano K; Sant'Anna, Fernando Hayashi; Balsanelli, Eduardo; Baura, Valter Antonio de; Oliveira Pedrosa, Fábio de; Souza, Emanuel Maltempi de; Falcon, Tiago; Passaglia, Luciane M P

2018-05-17

Lupinus albescens is a resistant cover plant that establishes symbiotic relationships with bacteria belonging to the Bradyrhizobium genus. This symbiosis helps the development of these plants in adverse environmental conditions, such as the ones found in arenized areas of Southern Brazil. This work studied three Bradyrhizobium sp. (AS23, NAS80 and NAS96) isolated from L. albescens plants that grow in extremely poor soils (arenized areas and adjacent grasslands). The genomes of these three strains were sequenced in the Ion Torrent platform using the IonXpress library preparation kit, and presented a total number of bases of 1,230,460,823 for AS23, 1,320,104,022 for NAS80, and 1,236,105,093 for NAS96. The genome comparison with closest strains Bradyrhizobium japonicum USDA6 and Bradyrhizobium diazoefficiens USDA110 showed important variable regions (with less than 80% of similarity). Genes encoding for factors for resistance/tolerance to heavy metal, flagellar motility, response to osmotic and oxidative stresses, heat shock proteins (present only in the three sequenced genomes) could be responsible for the ability of these microorganisms to survive in inhospitable environments. Knowledge about these genomes will provide a foundation for future development of an inoculant bioproduct that should optimize the recovery of degraded soils using cover crops.

Quantitative assessment based on kinematic measures of functional impairments during upper extremity movements: A review.

PubMed

de los Reyes-Guzmán, Ana; Dimbwadyo-Terrer, Iris; Trincado-Alonso, Fernando; Monasterio-Huelin, Félix; Torricelli, Diego; Gil-Agudo, Angel

2014-08-01

Quantitative measures of human movement quality are important for discriminating healthy and pathological conditions and for expressing the outcomes and clinically important changes in subjects' functional state. However the most frequently used instruments for the upper extremity functional assessment are clinical scales, that previously have been standardized and validated, but have a high subjective component depending on the observer who scores the test. But they are not enough to assess motor strategies used during movements, and their use in combination with other more objective measures is necessary. The objective of the present review is to provide an overview on objective metrics found in literature with the aim of quantifying the upper extremity performance during functional tasks, regardless of the equipment or system used for registering kinematic data. A search in Medline, Google Scholar and IEEE Xplore databases was performed following a combination of a series of keywords. The full scientific papers that fulfilled the inclusion criteria were included in the review. A set of kinematic metrics was found in literature in relation to joint displacements, analysis of hand trajectories and velocity profiles. These metrics were classified into different categories according to the movement characteristic that was being measured. These kinematic metrics provide the starting point for a proposed objective metrics for the functional assessment of the upper extremity in people with movement disorders as a consequence of neurological injuries. Potential areas of future and further research are presented in the Discussion section. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The climatic implications of the Holocene floods in the north-western Himalaya, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharma, S.; Shukla, A. D.; Bartarya, S.; Marh, B.; Juyal, N.

2016-12-01

Understanding the growing trend of extreme hydrological events in response to climate variabilities is a major area of interest in the climate change science. More important so as the predictions suggest increased frequency and/or magnitude of floods in the Himalayan region due to more intense/frequent coupling between the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) and the mid-latitude westerlies. In view of this, studies pertaining to the geological evidence of extreme hydrological events (paleofloods) become important as these not only extend beyond the instrumental records but ensures better understanding of the pattern of river response to the extreme climate variability.The Satluj River in the north-western Himalaya is infamous for its history of recurrent and devastating floods for which there is no data beyond the historical record. The present study in the middle Satluj valley is a contribution towards expanding the cognizance of the climate and geomorphic processes responsible for the Holocene extreme events. Based on sedimentology and grain size variability a total of 24 flood events of increasing magnitude are identified. The geochemical data indicate that the flood sediments were mostly generated and transported from the Higher Himalayan Crystalline with some contribution from the Trans-Himalaya. The optical chronology allow us to identify four major flood clusters which are dated between 13-11 ka; 8-4 ka; 4-2 ka and < 2 ka respectively. Climatically, these correspond to the cooler/relatively drier climatic condition (weak monsoon) and broadly correlate with the phases of negative Arctic Oscillation (‒AO) and negative North Atlantic Oscillation (-NAO).

Spatiotemporal analysis the precipitation extremes affecting rice yield in Jiangsu province, southeast China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Jin; Islam, A. R. M. Towfiqul; Zhang, Fangmin; Hu, Zhenghua

2017-10-01

With the increasing risk of meteorological disasters, it is of great importance to analyze the spatiotemporal changes of precipitation extremes and its possible impact on rice productivity, especially in Jiangsu province, southeast China. In this study, we explored the relationships between rice yield and extreme precipitation indices using Mann-Kendall trend test, Pettitt's test, and K-means clustering methods. This study used 10 extreme precipitation indices of the rice growing season (May to October) based on the daily precipitation records and rice yield data at 52 meteorological stations during 1961-2012 in Jiangsu province. The main findings were as follows: (1) correlation results indicated that precipitation extremes occurred in the months of July, August, and October, which had noticeable adverse effects on rice yield; (2) the maximum 7-day precipitation of July and the number of rainy days of August and October should be considered as three key indicators for the precipitation-induced rice meteorological disasters; and (3) most of the stations showed an increasing trends for the maximum 7-day precipitation of July and the number of rainy days of August, while the number of rainy days of October in all the stations demonstrated a decreasing trend. Moreover, Jiangsu province could be divided into two major sub-regions such as north and south areas with different temporal variations in the three key indicators.

Antarctic climate change: extreme events disrupt plastic phenotypic response in Adélie penguins.

PubMed

Lescroël, Amélie; Ballard, Grant; Grémillet, David; Authier, Matthieu; Ainley, David G

2014-01-01

In the context of predicted alteration of sea ice cover and increased frequency of extreme events, it is especially timely to investigate plasticity within Antarctic species responding to a key environmental aspect of their ecology: sea ice variability. Using 13 years of longitudinal data, we investigated the effect of sea ice concentration (SIC) on the foraging efficiency of Adélie penguins (Pygoscelis adeliae) breeding in the Ross Sea. A 'natural experiment' brought by the exceptional presence of giant icebergs during 5 consecutive years provided unprecedented habitat variation for testing the effects of extreme events on the relationship between SIC and foraging efficiency in this sea-ice dependent species. Significant levels of phenotypic plasticity were evident in response to changes in SIC in normal environmental conditions. Maximum foraging efficiency occurred at relatively low SIC, peaking at 6.1% and decreasing with higher SIC. The 'natural experiment' uncoupled efficiency levels from SIC variations. Our study suggests that lower summer SIC than currently observed would benefit the foraging performance of Adélie penguins in their southernmost breeding area. Importantly, it also provides evidence that extreme climatic events can disrupt response plasticity in a wild seabird population. This questions the predictive power of relationships built on past observations, when not only the average climatic conditions are changing but the frequency of extreme climatic anomalies is also on the rise.

Antarctic Climate Change: Extreme Events Disrupt Plastic Phenotypic Response in Adélie Penguins

PubMed Central

Lescroël, Amélie; Ballard, Grant; Grémillet, David; Authier, Matthieu; Ainley, David G.

2014-01-01

In the context of predicted alteration of sea ice cover and increased frequency of extreme events, it is especially timely to investigate plasticity within Antarctic species responding to a key environmental aspect of their ecology: sea ice variability. Using 13 years of longitudinal data, we investigated the effect of sea ice concentration (SIC) on the foraging efficiency of Adélie penguins (Pygoscelis adeliae) breeding in the Ross Sea. A ‘natural experiment’ brought by the exceptional presence of giant icebergs during 5 consecutive years provided unprecedented habitat variation for testing the effects of extreme events on the relationship between SIC and foraging efficiency in this sea-ice dependent species. Significant levels of phenotypic plasticity were evident in response to changes in SIC in normal environmental conditions. Maximum foraging efficiency occurred at relatively low SIC, peaking at 6.1% and decreasing with higher SIC. The ‘natural experiment’ uncoupled efficiency levels from SIC variations. Our study suggests that lower summer SIC than currently observed would benefit the foraging performance of Adélie penguins in their southernmost breeding area. Importantly, it also provides evidence that extreme climatic events can disrupt response plasticity in a wild seabird population. This questions the predictive power of relationships built on past observations, when not only the average climatic conditions are changing but the frequency of extreme climatic anomalies is also on the rise. PMID:24489657

Climate change impacts on extreme temperature mortality in select metropolitan areas of the United States

EPA Science Inventory

Projected mortality from climate change-driven impacts on extremely hot and cold days increases significantly over the 21st century in a large group of United States Metropolitan Statistical Areas. Increases in projected mortality from more hot days are greater than decreases in ...

Study on fracture identification of shale reservoir based on electrical imaging logging

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Zhou; Lai, Fuqiang; Xu, Lei; Liu, Lin; Yu, Tong; Chen, Junyu; Zhu, Yuantong

2017-05-01

In recent years, shale gas exploration has made important development, access to a major breakthrough, in which the study of mud shale fractures is extremely important. The development of fractures has an important role in the development of gas reservoirs. Based on the core observation and the analysis of laboratory flakes and laboratory materials, this paper divides the lithology of the shale reservoirs of the XX well in Zhanhua Depression. Based on the response of the mudstone fractures in the logging curve, the fracture development and logging Response to the relationship between the conventional logging and electrical imaging logging to identify the fractures in the work, the final completion of the type of fractures in the area to determine and quantify the calculation of fractures. It is concluded that the fracture type of the study area is high and the microstructures are developed from the analysis of the XX wells in Zhanhua Depression. The shape of the fractures can be clearly seen by imaging logging technology to determine its type.

Projected changes to precipitation extremes over the Canadian Prairies using multi-RCM ensemble

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Masud, M. B.; Khaliq, M. N.; Wheater, H. S.

2016-12-01

Information on projected changes to precipitation extremes is needed for future planning of urban drainage infrastructure and storm water management systems and to sustain socio-economic activities and ecosystems at local, regional and other scales of interest. This study explores the projected changes to seasonal (April-October) precipitation extremes at daily, hourly and sub-hourly scales over the Canadian Prairie Provinces of Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba, based on the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program multi-Regional Climate Model (RCM) ensemble and regional frequency analysis. The performance of each RCM is evaluated regarding boundary and performance errors to study various sources of uncertainties and the impact of large-scale driving fields. In the absence of RCM-simulated short-duration extremes, a framework is developed to derive changes to extremes of these durations. Results from this research reveal that the relative changes in sub-hourly extremes are higher than those in the hourly and daily extremes. Overall, projected changes in precipitation extremes are larger for southeastern parts of this region than southern and northern areas, and smaller for southwestern and western parts of the study area. Keywords: climate change, precipitation extremes, regional frequency analysis, NARCCAP, Canadian Prairie provinces

Joint Probability Analysis of Extreme Precipitation and Storm Tide in a Coastal City under Changing Environment

PubMed Central

Xu, Kui; Ma, Chao; Lian, Jijian; Bin, Lingling

2014-01-01

Catastrophic flooding resulting from extreme meteorological events has occurred more frequently and drawn great attention in recent years in China. In coastal areas, extreme precipitation and storm tide are both inducing factors of flooding and therefore their joint probability would be critical to determine the flooding risk. The impact of storm tide or changing environment on flooding is ignored or underestimated in the design of drainage systems of today in coastal areas in China. This paper investigates the joint probability of extreme precipitation and storm tide and its change using copula-based models in Fuzhou City. The change point at the year of 1984 detected by Mann-Kendall and Pettitt’s tests divides the extreme precipitation series into two subsequences. For each subsequence the probability of the joint behavior of extreme precipitation and storm tide is estimated by the optimal copula. Results show that the joint probability has increased by more than 300% on average after 1984 (α = 0.05). The design joint return period (RP) of extreme precipitation and storm tide is estimated to propose a design standard for future flooding preparedness. For a combination of extreme precipitation and storm tide, the design joint RP has become smaller than before. It implies that flooding would happen more often after 1984, which corresponds with the observation. The study would facilitate understanding the change of flood risk and proposing the adaption measures for coastal areas under a changing environment. PMID:25310006

Joint probability analysis of extreme precipitation and storm tide in a coastal city under changing environment.

PubMed

Xu, Kui; Ma, Chao; Lian, Jijian; Bin, Lingling

2014-01-01

Catastrophic flooding resulting from extreme meteorological events has occurred more frequently and drawn great attention in recent years in China. In coastal areas, extreme precipitation and storm tide are both inducing factors of flooding and therefore their joint probability would be critical to determine the flooding risk. The impact of storm tide or changing environment on flooding is ignored or underestimated in the design of drainage systems of today in coastal areas in China. This paper investigates the joint probability of extreme precipitation and storm tide and its change using copula-based models in Fuzhou City. The change point at the year of 1984 detected by Mann-Kendall and Pettitt's tests divides the extreme precipitation series into two subsequences. For each subsequence the probability of the joint behavior of extreme precipitation and storm tide is estimated by the optimal copula. Results show that the joint probability has increased by more than 300% on average after 1984 (α = 0.05). The design joint return period (RP) of extreme precipitation and storm tide is estimated to propose a design standard for future flooding preparedness. For a combination of extreme precipitation and storm tide, the design joint RP has become smaller than before. It implies that flooding would happen more often after 1984, which corresponds with the observation. The study would facilitate understanding the change of flood risk and proposing the adaption measures for coastal areas under a changing environment.

Universal EUV in-band intensity detector

DOEpatents

Berger, Kurt W.

2004-08-24

Extreme ultraviolet light is detected using a universal in-band detector for detecting extreme ultraviolet radiation that includes: (a) an EUV sensitive photodiode having a diode active area that generates a current responsive to EUV radiation; (b) one or more mirrors that reflects EUV radiation having a defined wavelength(s) to the diode active area; and (c) a mask defining a pinhole that is positioned above the diode active area, wherein EUV radiation passing through the pinhole is restricted substantially to illuminating the diode active area.

The contribution of urbanization to recent extreme heat events and a potential mitigation strategy in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei metropolitan area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Mingna; Yan, Xiaodong; Liu, Jiyuan; Zhang, Xuezhen

2013-11-01

This paper addresses the contribution of urban land use change to near-surface air temperature during the summer extreme heat events of the early twenty-first century in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei metropolitan area. This study uses the Weather Research Forecasting model with a single urban canopy model and the newest actual urban cover datasets. The results show that urban land use characteristics that have evolved over the past ~20 years in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei metropolitan area have had a significant impact on the extreme temperatures occurring during extreme heat events. Simulations show that new urban development has caused an intensification and expansion of the areas experiencing extreme heat waves with an average increase in temperature of approximately 0.60 °C. This change is most obvious at night with an increase up to 0.95 °C, for which the total contribution of anthropogenic heat is 34 %. We also simulate the effects of geo-engineering strategies increasing the albedo of urban roofs, an effective way of reducing urban heat island, which can reduce the urban mean temperature by approximately 0.51 °C and counter approximately 80 % of the heat wave results from urban sprawl during the last 20 years.

Opportunities in Total Knee Arthroplasty: Worldwide Surgeons' Perspective.

PubMed

Dunbar, Michael; Newman, Jared M; Khlopas, Anton; Chughtai, Morad; Martinez, Nick; Bhowmik-Stoker, Manoshi; Mont, Michael A

2017-07-25

This study surveyed a group of US and international orthopaedic surgeons to prioritize areas of improvement in primary total knee arthroplasty (TKA). Specifically, we assessed surgeon responses regarding the top five areas of TKA needing improvement; which were stratified by: a) US surgeons, b) international surgeons, c) US surgeons' implant-brand-loyalty, and d) surgeons' years of experience and case volume. Four hundred and eighteen surgeons who were board-certified, in practice for at least two years, spent 60% of their time in clinical practice, and performed a minimum of 25 lower extremity joint arthroplasties per year were surveyed. They chose the top five areas (among 17) needing improvement for TKA. Results were stratified by surgeons' location (US and international), implant-brand-loyalty, years of experience, and case volume. Functional outcomes was the top identified area for improvement (US 63% and international 71%), followed by brand loyalty (Company I 68%, other brand 59%, and multi-brand/no loyalty 66%), years of experience (early-career 64%, mid-career 63%, and late-career 75%) and case volume (low-volume 69%, mid-volume 60%, and high-volume 71%). Following this was costs for US surgeons (47%) and implant survivorship for international surgeons (57%). While costs were the next highest area for specific Company-loyal surgeons (57%), implant survivorship was the next highest area for the other two cohorts. Implant survivorship was the second most important area of improvement regardless of years of experience and for low- and mid-volume surgeons. Surgeons identified functional outcomes as the most important area needing improvement. Cost of implants was more important for American as compared to international surgeons.

Spatiotemporal variation and statistical characteristic of extreme precipitation in the middle reaches of the Yellow River Basin during 1960-2013

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Yin; Xia, Jun; She, Dunxian

2018-01-01

In recent decades, extreme precipitation events have been a research hotspot worldwide. Based on 12 extreme precipitation indices, the spatiotemporal variation and statistical characteristic of precipitation extremes in the middle reaches of the Yellow River Basin (MRYRB) during 1960-2013 were investigated. The results showed that the values of most extreme precipitation indices (except consecutive dry days (CDD)) increased from the northwest to the southeast of the MRYRB, reflecting that the southeast was the wettest region in the study area. Temporally, the precipitation extremes presented a drying trend with less frequent precipitation events. Generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution was selected to fit the time series of all indices, and the quantiles values under the 50-year return period showed a similar spatial extent with the corresponding precipitation extreme indices during 1960-2013, indicating a higher risk of extreme precipitation in the southeast of the MRYRB. Furthermore, the changes in probability distribution functions of indices for the period of 1960-1986 and 1987-2013 revealed a drying tendency in our study area. Both El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) were proved to have a strong influence on precipitation extremes in the MRYRB. The results of this study are useful to master the change rule of local precipitation extremes, which will help to prevent natural hazards caused.

A Multihazard Regional Level Impact Assessment for South Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amarnath, Giriraj; Alahacoon, Niranga; Aggarwal, Pramod; Smakhtin, Vladimir

2016-04-01

To prioritize climate adaptation strategies, there is a need for quantitative and systematic regional-level assessments which are comparable across multiple climatic hazard regimes. Assessing which countries in a region are most vulnerable to climate change requires analysis of multiple climatic hazards including: droughts, floods, extreme temperature as well as rainfall and sea-level rise. These five climatic hazards, along with population densities were modelled using GIS which enabled a summary of associated human exposure and agriculture losses. A combined index based on hazard, exposure and adaptive capacity is introduced to identify areas of extreme risks. The analysis results in population climate hazard exposure defined as the relative likelihood that a person in a given location was exposed to a given climate-hazard event in a given period of time. The study presents a detailed and coherent approach to fine-scale climate hazard mapping and identification of risks areas for the regions of South Asia that, for the first time, combines the following unique features: (a) methodological consistency across different climate-related hazards, (b) assessment of total exposure on population and agricultural losses, (c) regional-level spatial coverage, and (d) development of customized tools using ArcGIS toolbox that allow assessment of changes in exposure over time and easy replacement of existing datasets with a newly released or superior datasets. The resulting maps enable comparison of the most vulnerable regions in South Asia to climate-related hazards and is among the most urgent of policy needs. Subnational areas (regions/districts/provinces) most vulnerable to climate change impacts in South Asia are documented. The approach involves overlaying climate hazard maps, sensitivity maps, and adaptive capacity maps following the vulnerability assessment framework of the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The study used data on the spatial distribution of various climate-related hazards in 1,398 subnational areas of Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka. An analysis of country-level population exposure showed that approximately 750 million people are affected from combined climate-hazards. Of the affected population 72% are in India, followed by 12% each from Bangladesh and Pakistan. Due in part to the economic importance of agriculture, it was found to be most vulnerable and exposed to climate extremes. An analysis of individual hazards indicates that floods and droughts) are the dominant hazards impacting agricultural areas followed by extreme rainfall, extreme temperature and sea-level rise. Based on this vulnerability assessment, all the regions of Bangladesh and the Indian States in Andhra Pradesh, Bihar, Maharashtra, Karnataka and Orissa; Ampara, Puttalam, Trincomalee, Mannar and Batticaloa in Sri Lanka; Sind and Baluchistan in Pakistan; Central and East Nepal; and the transboundary river basins of Indus, Ganges and Brahmaputra are among the most vulnerable regions in South Asia.

Vulnerability to extreme heat and climate change: is ethnicity a factor?

PubMed Central

Hansen, Alana; Bi, Linda; Saniotis, Arthur; Nitschke, Monika

2013-01-01

Background With a warming climate, it is important to identify sub-populations at risk of harm during extreme heat. Several international studies have reported that individuals from ethnic minorities are at increased risk of heat-related illness, for reasons that are not often discussed. Objective The aim of this article is to investigate the underpinning reasons as to why ethnicity may be associated with susceptibility to extreme heat, and how this may be relevant to Australia’s population. Design Drawing upon literary sources, the authors provide commentary on this important, yet poorly understood area of heat research. Results Social and economic disparities, living conditions, language barriers, and occupational exposure are among the many factors contributing to heat-susceptibility among minority ethnic groups in the United States. However, there is a knowledge gap about socio-cultural influences on vulnerability in other countries. Conclusion More research needs to be undertaken to determine the effects of heat on tourists, migrants, and refugees who are confronted with a different climatic environment. Thorough epidemiological investigations of the association between ethnicity and heat-related health outcomes are required, and this could be assisted with better reporting of nationality data in health statistics. Climate change adaptation strategies in Australia and elsewhere need to be ethnically inclusive and cognisant of an upward trend in the proportion of the population who are migrants and refugees. PMID:23899408

Extreme Fire Severity Patterns in Topographic, Convective and Wind-Driven Historical Wildfires of Mediterranean Pine Forests

PubMed Central

Lecina-Diaz, Judit; Alvarez, Albert; Retana, Javier

2014-01-01

Crown fires associated with extreme fire severity are extremely difficult to control. We have assessed fire severity using differenced Normalized Burn Ratio (dNBR) from Landsat imagery in 15 historical wildfires of Pinus halepensis Mill. We have considered a wide range of innovative topographic, fuel and fire behavior variables with the purposes of (1) determining the variables that influence fire severity patterns among fires (considering the 15 wildfires together) and (2) ascertaining whether different variables affect extreme fire severity within the three fire types (topographic, convective and wind-driven fires). The among-fires analysis showed that fires in less arid climates and with steeper slopes had more extreme severity. In less arid conditions there was more crown fuel accumulation and closer forest structures, promoting high vertical and horizontal fuel continuity and extreme fire severity. The analyses carried out for each fire separately (within fires) showed more extreme fire severity in areas in northern aspects, with steeper slopes, with high crown biomass and in climates with more water availability. In northern aspects solar radiation was lower and fuels had less water limitation to growth which, combined with steeper slopes, produced more extreme severity. In topographic fires there was more extreme severity in northern aspects with steeper slopes and in areas with more water availability and high crown biomass; in convection-dominated fires there was also more extreme fire severity in northern aspects with high biomass; while in wind-driven fires there was only a slight interaction between biomass and water availability. This latter pattern could be related to the fact that wind-driven fires spread with high wind speed, which could have minimized the effect of other variables. In the future, and as a consequence of climate change, new zones with high crown biomass accumulated in non-common drought areas will be available to burn as extreme severity wildfires. PMID:24465492

Extreme fire severity patterns in topographic, convective and wind-driven historical wildfires of Mediterranean pine forests.

PubMed

Lecina-Diaz, Judit; Alvarez, Albert; Retana, Javier

2014-01-01

Crown fires associated with extreme fire severity are extremely difficult to control. We have assessed fire severity using differenced Normalized Burn Ratio (dNBR) from Landsat imagery in 15 historical wildfires of Pinus halepensis Mill. We have considered a wide range of innovative topographic, fuel and fire behavior variables with the purposes of (1) determining the variables that influence fire severity patterns among fires (considering the 15 wildfires together) and (2) ascertaining whether different variables affect extreme fire severity within the three fire types (topographic, convective and wind-driven fires). The among-fires analysis showed that fires in less arid climates and with steeper slopes had more extreme severity. In less arid conditions there was more crown fuel accumulation and closer forest structures, promoting high vertical and horizontal fuel continuity and extreme fire severity. The analyses carried out for each fire separately (within fires) showed more extreme fire severity in areas in northern aspects, with steeper slopes, with high crown biomass and in climates with more water availability. In northern aspects solar radiation was lower and fuels had less water limitation to growth which, combined with steeper slopes, produced more extreme severity. In topographic fires there was more extreme severity in northern aspects with steeper slopes and in areas with more water availability and high crown biomass; in convection-dominated fires there was also more extreme fire severity in northern aspects with high biomass; while in wind-driven fires there was only a slight interaction between biomass and water availability. This latter pattern could be related to the fact that wind-driven fires spread with high wind speed, which could have minimized the effect of other variables. In the future, and as a consequence of climate change, new zones with high crown biomass accumulated in non-common drought areas will be available to burn as extreme severity wildfires.

Determining return water levels at ungauged coastal sites: a case study for northern Germany

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arns, Arne; Wahl, Thomas; Haigh, Ivan D.; Jensen, Jürgen

2015-04-01

We estimate return periods and levels of extreme still water levels for the highly vulnerable and historically and culturally important small marsh islands known as the Halligen, located in the Wadden Sea offshore of the coast of northern Germany. This is a challenging task as only few water level records are available for this region, and they are currently too short to apply traditional extreme value analysis methods. Therefore, we use the Regional Frequency Analysis (RFA) approach. This originates from hydrology but has been used before in several coastal studies and is also currently applied by the local federal administration responsible for coastal protection in the study area. The RFA enables us to indirectly estimate return levels by transferring hydrological information from gauged to related ungauged sites. Our analyses highlight that this methodology has some drawbacks and may over- or underestimate return levels compared to direct analyses using station data. To overcome these issues, we present an alternative approach, combining numerical and statistical models. First, we produced a numerical multidecadal model hindcast of water levels for the entire North Sea. Predicted water levels from the hindcast are bias corrected using the information from the available tide gauge records. Hence, the simulated water levels agree well with the measured water levels at gauged sites. The bias correction is then interpolated spatially to obtain correction functions for the simulated water levels at each coastal and island model grid point in the study area. Using a recommended procedure to conduct extreme value analyses from a companion study, return water levels suitable for coastal infrastructure design are estimated continuously along the entire coastline of the study area, including the offshore islands. A similar methodology can be applied in other regions of the world where tide gauge observations are sparse.

Scaling of precipitation extremes with temperature in the French Mediterranean region: What explains the hook shape?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Drobinski, P.; Alonzo, B.; Bastin, S.; Silva, N. Da; Muller, C.

2016-04-01

Expected changes to future extreme precipitation remain a key uncertainty associated with anthropogenic climate change. Extreme precipitation has been proposed to scale with the precipitable water content in the atmosphere. Assuming constant relative humidity, this implies an increase of precipitation extremes at a rate of about 7% °C-1 globally as indicated by the Clausius-Clapeyron relationship. Increases faster and slower than Clausius-Clapeyron have also been reported. In this work, we examine the scaling between precipitation extremes and temperature in the present climate using simulations and measurements from surface weather stations collected in the frame of the HyMeX and MED-CORDEX programs in Southern France. Of particular interest are departures from the Clausius-Clapeyron thermodynamic expectation, their spatial and temporal distribution, and their origin. Looking at the scaling of precipitation extreme with temperature, two regimes emerge which form a hook shape: one at low temperatures (cooler than around 15°C) with rates of increase close to the Clausius-Clapeyron rate and one at high temperatures (warmer than about 15°C) with sub-Clausius-Clapeyron rates and most often negative rates. On average, the region of focus does not seem to exhibit super Clausius-Clapeyron behavior except at some stations, in contrast to earlier studies. Many factors can contribute to departure from Clausius-Clapeyron scaling: time and spatial averaging, choice of scaling temperature (surface versus condensation level), and precipitation efficiency and vertical velocity in updrafts that are not necessarily constant with temperature. But most importantly, the dynamical contribution of orography to precipitation in the fall over this area during the so-called "Cevenoles" events, explains the hook shape of the scaling of precipitation extremes.

Early and late hot extremes, and elongation of the warm period over Greece

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Founda, Dimitra; Giannakopoulos, Christos; Pierros, Fragiskos

2017-04-01

The eastern Mediterranean has been assigned as one of the most responsive areas in climate change, mainly with respect to the occurrence of warmer and drier conditions. In Greece in particular, observations suggest prominent increases in the summer air temperature which in some areas amount to approximately 1 0C/decade since the mid 1970s, while Regional Climate Models simulate further increases in the near and distant future. These changes are coupled with simultaneous increase in the occurrence of hot extremes. In addition to changes in the frequency and intensity of hot extrems, timing of occurrence is also of special interest. Early heat waves in particular, have been found to increase thermal risk in humans. The study explores variations and trends in timing, namely the date of first and last occurrence of hot extremes within the year, and subsequently the hot extremes period (season), defined as the time interval (number of days) between first and last hot extremes occurrence, over Greece. A case study for the area of Athens covering a longer than 100-years period (1897-2015) was conducted first, which will be extended to other Greek areas. Several heat related climatic indices were used, based either on predefined temperature thresholds such as 'tropical days' (daily maximum air temperature, Tmax >30 0C), 'tropical nights' (daily minimum air temperature, Tmin >20 0C), 'hot days' (Tmax >35 0C), or on local climate statistics such as days with Tmax (or Tmin) > 95th percentile. The analysis revealed significant changes in the period of hot extremes and specifically elongation of the period, attributed to early rather than late hot extremes occurrence. An earlier shift of the first tropical day and the first tropical night occurrence by approximately 2 days/decade was found over the study period. An overall elongation of the 'hot days' season by 2.6 days/decade was also observed, which is more prominent since the early 1980s. Over the last three decades, earlier shift of occurrence of days with Tmax > 37 0C and Tmin > 26 0C (corresponding to the 95th percentiles of summer Tmax and Tmin respectively for Athens) was striking, amounting to 8 days/decade. Our findings for the hot extremes period will be used to validate respective simulations of Regional Climate Models downscaled over the areas of interest.

Three decades of high-resolution coastal sea surface temperatures reveal more than warming.

PubMed

Lima, Fernando P; Wethey, David S

2012-02-28

Understanding and forecasting current and future consequences of coastal warming require a fine-scale assessment of the near-shore temperature changes. Here we show that despite the fact that 71% of the world's coastlines are significantly warming, rates of change have been highly heterogeneous both spatially and seasonally. We demonstrate that 46% of the coastlines have experienced a significant decrease in the frequency of extremely cold events, while extremely hot days are becoming more common in 38% of the area. Also, we show that the onset of the warm season is significantly advancing earlier in the year in 36% of the temperate coastal regions. More importantly, it is now possible to analyse local patterns within the global context, which is useful for a broad array of scientific fields, policy makers and general public.

Automatic delineation and 3D visualization of the human ventricular system using probabilistic neural networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hatfield, Fraser N.; Dehmeshki, Jamshid

1998-09-01

Neurosurgery is an extremely specialized area of medical practice, requiring many years of training. It has been suggested that virtual reality models of the complex structures within the brain may aid in the training of neurosurgeons as well as playing an important role in the preparation for surgery. This paper focuses on the application of a probabilistic neural network to the automatic segmentation of the ventricles from magnetic resonance images of the brain, and their three dimensional visualization.

Symposium on Automation, Robotics and Advanced Computing for the National Space Program (2nd) Held in Arlington, Virginia on 9-11 March 1987

DTIC Science & Technology

1988-02-28

enormous investment in software. This is an area extremely important objective. We need additional where better methodologies , tools and theories...microscopy (SEM) and optical mi- [131 Hanson, A., et a. "A Methodology for the Develop- croscopy. Current activities include the study of SEM im- ment...through a phased knowledge engineering methodology Center (ARC) and NASA Johnson Space Center consisting of: prototype knowledge base develop- iJSC

Understanding medical decision making in hand surgery.

PubMed

Myers, John; McCabe, Steven J

2005-10-01

The practice of medicine takes place in an environment of uncertainty. Expected value decision making, prospect theory, and regret theory are three theories of decision making under uncertainty that may be used to help us learn how patients and physicians make decisions. These theories form the underpinnings of decision analysis and provide the opportunity to introduce the broad discipline of decision science. Because decision analysis and economic analysis are underrepresented in upper extremity surgery, the authors believe these are important areas for future research.

Urban Form and Extreme Heat Events: Are Sprawling Cities More Vulnerable to Climate Change Than Compact Cities?

PubMed Central

Stone, Brian; Hess, Jeremy J.; Frumkin, Howard

2010-01-01

Background Extreme heat events (EHEs) are increasing in frequency in large U.S. cities and are responsible for a greater annual number of climate-related fatalities, on average, than any other form of extreme weather. In addition, low-density, sprawling patterns of urban development have been associated with enhanced surface temperatures in urbanized areas. Objectives In this study. we examined the association between urban form at the level of the metropolitan region and the frequency of EHEs over a five-decade period. Methods We employed a widely published sprawl index to measure the association between urban form in 2000 and the mean annual rate of change in EHEs between 1956 and 2005. Results We found that the rate of increase in the annual number of EHEs between 1956 and 2005 in the most sprawling metropolitan regions was more than double the rate of increase observed in the most compact metropolitan regions. Conclusions The design and management of land use in metropolitan regions may offer an important tool for adapting to the heat-related health effects associated with ongoing climate change. PMID:21114000

[Epidemiology of winter sport injuries].

PubMed

Heim, D; Weymann, A; Loeliger, U; Matter, P

1993-01-01

The region Davos/Klosters is a big wintersport area in Switzerland, where more than 5 million kilometers of vertical drop are skied per year. Over the last 20 years 28,777 patients with wintersport accidents have been treated in the 100-bed hospital of Davos, 85% of these patients have sustained their accident while skiing. An analysis of these datas show an increase of ski accidents as well as an increase of the distance skied. Especially an increase in snowboard accidents is noted over the last few years with a preponderance of lesions of the upper extremity. Injuries of the head, the trunk and simple skin lacerations remain stable over that period. Injuries of the upper extremity are increasing, whereas lower extremity lesions are slightly decreasing. There is a significant decrease of fractures of the leg, while at the same time an important increase of knee injuries is noted. Young patients below 20 years and those between 31 and 40 years of age sustained less accidents over the last 20 years, while the rest of the alpine skiers remain more or less stable in their accident incidence.

Updated Intensity - Duration - Frequency Curves Under Different Future Climate Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ragno, E.; AghaKouchak, A.

2016-12-01

Current infrastructure design procedures rely on the use of Intensity - Duration - Frequency (IDF) curves retrieved under the assumption of temporal stationarity, meaning that occurrences of extreme events are expected to be time invariant. However, numerous studies have observed more severe extreme events over time. Hence, the stationarity assumption for extreme analysis may not be appropriate in a warming climate. This issue raises concerns regarding the safety and resilience of the existing and future infrastructures. Here we employ historical and projected (RCP 8.5) CMIP5 runs to investigate IDF curves of 14 urban areas across the United States. We first statistically assess changes in precipitation extremes using an energy-based test for equal distributions. Then, through a Bayesian inference approach for stationary and non-stationary extreme value analysis, we provide updated IDF curves based on climatic model projections. This presentation summarizes the projected changes in statistics of extremes. We show that, based on CMIP5 simulations, extreme precipitation events in some urban areas can be 20% more severe in the future, even when projected annual mean precipitation is expected to remain similar to the ground-based climatology.

Comparing regional precipitation and temperature extremes in climate model and reanalysis products

DOE PAGES

Angélil, Oliver; Perkins-Kirkpatrick, Sarah; Alexander, Lisa V.; ...

2016-07-12

A growing field of research aims to characterise the contribution of anthropogenic emissions to the likelihood of extreme weather and climate events. These analyses can be sensitive to the shapes of the tails of simulated distributions. If tails are found to be unrealistically short or long, the anthropogenic signal emerges more or less clearly, respectively, from the noise of possible weather. Here we compare the chance of daily land-surface precipitation and near-surface temperature extremes generated by three Atmospheric Global Climate Models typically used for event attribution, with distributions from six reanalysis products. The likelihoods of extremes are compared for area-averagesmore » over grid cell and regional sized spatial domains. Results suggest a bias favouring overly strong attribution estimates for hot and cold events over many regions of Africa and Australia, and a bias favouring overly weak attribution estimates over regions of North America and Asia. For rainfall, results are more sensitive to geographic location. Although the three models show similar results over many regions, they do disagree over others. Equally, results highlight the discrepancy amongst reanalyses products. This emphasises the importance of using multiple reanalysis and/or observation products, as well as multiple models in event attribution studies.« less

Susceptibility to Mortality in Weather Extremes: Effect Modification by Personal and Small Area Characteristics In a Multi-City Case-Only Analysis

PubMed Central

Zanobetti, Antonella; O’Neill, Marie S.; Gronlund, Carina J.; Schwartz, Joel D

2015-01-01

Background Extremes of temperature have been associated with short-term increases in daily mortality. We identified subpopulations with increased susceptibility to dying during temperature extremes, based on personal demographics, small-area characteristics and preexisting medical conditions. Methods We examined Medicare participants in 135 U.S. cities and identified preexisting conditions based on hospitalization records prior to their deaths, from 1985–2006. Personal characteristics were obtained from the Medicare records, and area characteristics were assigned based on zip-code of residence. We conducted a case-only analysis of over 11 million deaths, and evaluated modification of the risk of dying associated with extremely hot days and extremely cold days, continuous temperatures, and water-vapor pressure. Modifiers included preexisting conditions, personal characteristics, zip-code-level population characteristics, and land-cover characteristics. For each effect modifier, a city-specific logistic regression model was fitted and then an overall national estimate was calculated using meta-analysis. Results People with certain preexisting conditions were more susceptible to extreme heat, with an additional 6% (95% confidence interval= 4% – 8%) increase in the risk of dying on an extremely hot day in subjects with previous admission for atrial fibrillation, an additional 8% (4%–12%) in subjects with Alzheimer disease, and an additional 6% (3%–9%) in subjects with dementia. Zip-code level and personal characteristics were also associated with increased susceptibility to temperature. Conclusions We identified several subgroups of the population who are particularly susceptible to temperature extremes, including persons with atrial fibrillation. PMID:24045717

Evaluation of WRF-based convection-permitting multi-physics ensemble forecasts over China for an extreme rainfall event on 21 July 2012 in Beijing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Kefeng; Xue, Ming

2016-11-01

On 21 July 2012, an extreme rainfall event that recorded a maximum rainfall amount over 24 hours of 460 mm, occurred in Beijing, China. Most operational models failed to predict such an extreme amount. In this study, a convective-permitting ensemble forecast system (CEFS), at 4-km grid spacing, covering the entire mainland of China, is applied to this extreme rainfall case. CEFS consists of 22 members and uses multiple physics parameterizations. For the event, the predicted maximum is 415 mm d-1 in the probability-matched ensemble mean. The predicted high-probability heavy rain region is located in southwest Beijing, as was observed. Ensemble-based verification scores are then investigated. For a small verification domain covering Beijing and its surrounding areas, the precipitation rank histogram of CEFS is much flatter than that of a reference global ensemble. CEFS has a lower (higher) Brier score and a higher resolution than the global ensemble for precipitation, indicating more reliable probabilistic forecasting by CEFS. Additionally, forecasts of different ensemble members are compared and discussed. Most of the extreme rainfall comes from convection in the warm sector east of an approaching cold front. A few members of CEFS successfully reproduce such precipitation, and orographic lift of highly moist low-level flows with a significantly southeasterly component is suggested to have played important roles in producing the initial convection. Comparisons between good and bad forecast members indicate a strong sensitivity of the extreme rainfall to the mesoscale environmental conditions, and, to less of an extent, the model physics.

Entrainment, transport and concentration of meteorites in polar ice sheets

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Drewry, D. J.

1986-01-01

Glaciers and ice sheets act as slow-moving conveyancing systems for material added to both their upper and lower surfaces. Because the transit time for most materials is extremely long the ice acts as a major global storage facility. The effects of horizontal and vertical motions on the flow patterns of Antarctic ice sheets are summarized. The determination of the source areas of meteorites and their transport paths is a problem of central importance since it relates not only directly to concentration mechanisms but also to the wider issues in glaciology and meteorites. The ice and snow into which a meteorite falls, and which moves with it to the concentration area, encodes information about the infall area. The principle environmental conditions being former elevation, temperature (also related to elevation), and age of the ice. This encoded information could be used to identify the infall area.

Bayes plus Brass: Estimating Total Fertility for Many Small Areas from Sparse Census Data

PubMed Central

Schmertmann, Carl P.; Cavenaghi, Suzana M.; Assunção, Renato M.; Potter, Joseph E.

2013-01-01

Small-area fertility estimates are valuable for analysing demographic change, and important for local planning and population projection. In countries lacking complete vital registration, however, small-area estimates are possible only from sparse survey or census data that are potentially unreliable. Such estimation requires new methods for old problems: procedures must be automated if thousands of estimates are required, they must deal with extreme sampling variability in many areas, and they should also incorporate corrections for possible data errors. We present a two-step algorithm for estimating total fertility in such circumstances, and we illustrate by applying the method to 2000 Brazilian Census data for over five thousand municipalities. Our proposed algorithm first smoothes local age-specific rates using Empirical Bayes methods, and then applies a new variant of Brass’s P/F parity correction procedure that is robust under conditions of rapid fertility decline. PMID:24143946

Hydrological Controls on Macrophyte Productivity in the Amazon Floodplain Wetlands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Silva, T. S.; Novo, E. M.; Melack, J. M.

2013-05-01

The Amazon River floodplain is an important source of atmospheric CO2 and CH4, but the relative contribution of allochthonous and autochthonous sources to floodplain emissions is still uncertain. Macrophytes comprise an important carbon source, growing during both low and high water conditions, and averaging 5,000 g.m-2.yr-1 in dry weight. The controls exerted by the annual flooding on macrophyte productivity result from two opposing mechanisms: the "horizontal expansion" of plant stands during low water levels and the stem elongation ("vertical growth") promoted by rising water levels. As studies suggest more frequent and intense droughts for the Amazon, determining how these mechanisms interact to control macrophyte net primary productivity (NPP) can lead to a better understanding of the effects of extreme hydrological conditions on autochthonous carbon fixation in the Amazon floodplain. Our study combines remote sensing estimates of macrophyte cover, in situ measurements of macrophyte biomass, historical water level records, and statistical modeling and simulation to answer 1) how plant horizontal expansion and vertical growth respond to inter-annual flooding variability, 2) how these responses modulate annual NPP, and 3) how climatic changes will affect the contribution of macrophytes to the carbon budget of the Amazon floodplain. Biomass data was collected along a stretch of the Lower Amazon Floodplain, at monthly intervals in 2004, and a time series of Radarsat-1 and EOS-MODIS images was acquired for the same area for the 2003-2005 period. Daily river stage data was acquired from the Brazilian National Water Agency (ANA) for the Óbidos station, covering the 1970 - 2011 period. Macrophyte cover was estimated for each available image in the series, using a multitemporal object-based image analysis algorithm. Empirical regression models were used to model the relationship between flood levels and both plant biomass and cover area, and combined into a semi-empirical growth model. Annual NPP was then predicted from daily biomass increments, spanning the 42-year hydrological data record. Resulting macrophyte cover maps had overall accuracies between 60% and 90%, and macrophyte cover area increased fourfold between high and low water seasons. Simulated NPP had marked variability, ranging from 1.06 (0.68, 1.70) Tg C yr-1 in 1980 to 1.63 (1.03, 2.63) Tg C yr-1 in 2009 for the entire mapped area.Values between parentheses show the 95% prediciton limits. Vertical growth was sensitive to extreme floods, but not to severe droughts, while horizontal expansion was affected by both extremely low and high water levels. The simulation revealed a complex pattern of interaction between the two components, indicating that extreme floods may result in larger increases in carbon fixation than extreme droughts. However, the results also suggested that overall flooding amplitude was positively correlated with simulated NPP values (r = 0.63, p > 0.001). An increasing trend in flood amplitude was observed in the hydrological record, which led to a small increase in annual NPP , of approximately 0.0008 TgC.yr-1 for the entire study region.

The Impact of Climate Change in Rainfall Erosivity Index on Humid Mudstone Area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Ci-Jian; Lin, Jiun-Chuan

2017-04-01

It has been quite often pointed out in many relevant studies that climate change may result in negative impacts on soil erosion. Then, humid mudstone area is highly susceptible to climate change. Taiwan has extreme erosion in badland area, with annual precipitation over 2000 mm/y which is a considerably 3 times higher than other badland areas around the world, and with around 9-13 cm/y in denudation rate. This is the reason why the Erren River, a badland dominated basin has the highest mean sediment yield in the world, over 105 t km2 y. This study aims to know how the climate change would affect soil erosion from the source in the Erren River catchment. Firstly, the data of hourly precipitation from 1992 to 2016 are used to establish the regression between rainfall erosivity index (R, one of component for USLE) and precipitation. Secondly, using the 10 climate change models (provide form IPCC AR5) simulates the changes of monthly precipitation in different scenario from 2017 to 2216, and then over 200 years prediction R values can be use to describe the tendency of soil erosion in the future. The results show that (1) the relationship between rainfall erosion index and precipitation has high correction (>0.85) during 1992-2016. (2) From 2017 to 2216, 7 scenarios show that annual rainfall erosion index will increase over 2-18%. In contrast, the others will decrease over 7-14%. Overall, the variations of annual rainfall erosion index fall in the range of -14 to 18%, but it is important to pay attention to the variation of annual rainfall erosion index in extreme years. These fall in the range of -34 to 239%. This explains the extremity of soil erosion will occur easily in the future. Keywords: Climate Change, Mudstone, Rainfall Erosivity Index, IPCC AR5

Urban development under extreme hydrologic and weather conditions for El Paso-Juarez: Recommendations resulting from hydrologic modeling, GIS, and remote sensing analyses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barud-Zubillaga, Alberto

During the 2006 El Paso-Juarez flood there were many concerns regarding the capability of the existing stormwater system to handle 50- and 100-year flood events in El Paso, Texas and Juarez, Mexico area. Moreover in 2008, a considerable wet year from the normal 223 mm of annual precipitation for El Paso demonstrated that the area could very well received large amounts of precipitation at localized areas in short periods of time, representing a great flood threat to residents living in areas prone to flood. Some climate change projections for the area are exactly what had occurred over the last two decades; an increased number of torrential rainstorms over smaller concentrated pieces of land separated by longer years of drought between rainstorms. This study consisted in three projects focused on three critical regions within the El Paso-Juarez area that were greatly affected by the 2006 Flood. The goal was to identify if natural arroyos or the existent built stormwater system, could properly managed the projected precipitation patterns. The three projects described in this dissertation touch on the following points: (a) the importance of a reliable precipitation model that could accurately describes precipitation patterns in the region under extreme drought and wet climates conditions; (b) differences in land use/land cover characteristics as factors promoting or disrupting the possibility for flooding, and (c) limitations and capabilities of existent stormwater systems and natural arroyos as means to control flooding. Conclusions and recommendations are shown below, which apply not only to each particular project, but also to all study areas and similar areas in the El Paso-Juarez region. Urbanization can improve or worsen a pre-existing natural stormwater system if built under its required capacity. Such capacity should be calculated considering extreme weather conditions, based on a denser network of precipitation stations to capture the various microclimates found in the region and taking into account climate change predictions. Development of new areas needs to consider not only the watershed of study but its relation to other watersheds around them. Basin parameters seemed to be of low impact while comparing them with precipitation rates. High resolution DEMs, such as those derived from LiDAR can dramatically improve the accuracy and reliability of a hydrological model. Hardware capabilities and limitations however should be considered. The overall recommendations derived from this dissertation are to direct new studies, policies and regulations at the three levels of government---local, state and federal---to: limit urban development to areas of no or low potential for flooding; implementing some type of ecological, green corridors, or conservation easements to preserve these areas; build semi-natural or hybrid stormwater infrastructure to slowdown, collect, and ultimately, transport runoff to the Rio Grande or any other waterway; consider extreme wet and dry scenarios for designation of flood-prone areas and future construction of stormwater infrastructure; and design stormwater infrastructure to retrofit the existing natural and irrigation drains.

Potential compensation of hydrological extremes in headwaters: case study of upper Vltava River basin, Šumava Mts., Czechia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kocum, Jan; Janský, Bohumír.; Česák, Julius

2010-05-01

Increasing frequency of catastrophic flash floods and extreme droughts in recent years results in an urgent need of solving of flood protection questions and measures leading to discharge increase in dry periods. Flattening of discharge call for the use of untraditional practices as a suitable complement to classical engineering methods. These measures could be represented by gradual increase of river catchment retention capacity in headstream areas. Very favorable conditions for this research solution are concentrated to the upper part of Otava River basin (Vltava River left tributary, Šumava Mts., southwestern Czechia) representing the core zone of a number of extreme floods in Central Europe and the area with high peat land proportion. A number of automatic ultrasound and hydrostatic pressure water level gauges, climatic stations and precipitation gauges and utilization of modern equipment and methods were used in chosen experimental catchments to assess the landscape retention potential and to find out rainfall-runoff relations in this area. Successively, the detailed analysis of peat land hydrological function was carried out. The peat bogs influence on runoff conditions were assessed by thorough comparison of runoff regimes in subcatchments with different peat land proportion. The peat bog influence on hydrological process can be considered also with respect to its affecting of water quality. Therefore, hydrological monitoring was completed by ion, carbon (TOC) and oxygen isotopes balance observing within periods of high or low discharges in order to precise runoff phases separation by means of anion deficiency. Pedological survey of different soil types and textures was carried out to precise the estimation of its water capacity. Detailed analyses of extreme runoff ascending and descending phases and minimum discharges in profiles closing several subcatchments with different physical-geographic conditions show higher peak flow frequency and their shorter reaction to causal amount of precipitation in the case of highly peaty areas, therefore more distinct runoff variability of streams draining peat land localities. These findings were affirmed by geochemical approach laboratory outcomes within the meaning of significant contribution of runoff from peat lands to the total runoff during extreme flood situations. An important component of rainfall-runoff process in source areas of czech rivers represented by snow conditions was analyses very in detail by means of monitoring of snow cover height and its water equivalent in chosen experimental catchments. Outcomes of this study should markedly help with significant precising of estimation of water storage retained in a snow cover. Consecutive runoff simulations using mathematical techniques would then improve a hydrological forecast. In terms of present dyking of former channels draining peat land represented by so called peat bog revitalization partial findings refer to positive effect during mean runoff situations but their considerably negative influence on runoff process in cases of extremely high discharges. In order to achieve retention potential enhancement in source areas of czech rivers an evaluation of possible former accumulative reservoirs (used for wood floating in former times) restoration which could function for example as dry (green) polders should be considered. The system of such small storage bins could function as an alternative and supplement to greater dam reservoirs. Possible spaces for water retention are measured by geodetic total station and modelled by suitable methods in GIS software. Existing outcomes advert to the fact that the effectiveness of such reservoir system would not have to be neglecting. By implementation of these unforceable measures realized in river headstream areas it could be contributed to reduction of peak flows and to increase of water resources during extreme droughts in future.

Disaster Risks Reduction for Extreme Natural Hazards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Plag, H.; Jules-Plag, S.

2013-12-01

Mega disasters associated with extreme natural hazards have the potential to escalate the global sustainability crisis and put us close to the boundaries of the safe operating space for humanity. Floods and droughts are major threats that potentially could reach planetary extent, particularly through secondary economic and social impacts. Earthquakes and tsunamis frequently cause disasters that eventually could exceed the immediate coping capacity of the global economy, particularly since we have built mega cities in hazardous areas that are now ready to be harvested by natural hazards. Unfortunately, the more we learn to cope with the relatively frequent hazards (50 to 100 years events), the less we are worried about the low-probability, high-impact events (a few hundred and more years events). As a consequence, threats from the 500 years flood, drought, volcano eruption are not appropriately accounted for in disaster risk reduction (DRR) discussions. Extreme geohazards have occurred regularly throughout the past, but mostly did not cause major disasters because exposure of human assets to hazards was much lower in the past. The most extreme events that occurred during the last 2,000 years would today cause unparalleled damage on a global scale and could worsen the sustainability crisis. Simulation of these extreme hazards under present conditions can help to assess the disaster risk. Recent extreme earthquakes have illustrated the destruction they can inflict, both directly and indirectly through tsunamis. Large volcano eruptions have the potential to impact climate, anthropogenic infrastructure and resource supplies on global scale. During the last 2,000 years several large volcano eruptions occurred, which under today's conditions are associated with extreme disaster risk. The comparison of earthquakes and volcano eruptions indicates that large volcano eruptions are the low-probability geohazards with potentially the highest impact on our civilization. Integration of these low-probability, high-impact events in DRR requires an approach focused on resilience and antifragility, as well as the ability to cope with, and recover from failure of infrastructure and social systems. Resilience does not primarily result from the robustness of infrastructure but mainly is a function of the social capital. While it is important to understand the hazards (the contribution of geosciences), it is equally important to understand the processes that let us cope with the hazards, or lead to failure (the contribution of social sciences and engineering). For the latter, we need a joint effort of social sciences and engineering and a revised science-policy relationship. Democratizing knowledge about extreme geohazards is very important in order to inform deliberations of DRR through increased resilience and reduced fragility. The current science-society dialog is not fully capable of supporting deliberative governance. Most scientific knowledge is created independent of those who could put it to use, and a transition to co-design and co-development of knowledge involving a broad stakeholder base is necessary for DRR, particularly for extreme events. This transition may have the consequence of more responsibility and even liability for science.

Potential aboveground biomass in drought-prone forest used for rangeland pastoralism.

PubMed

Fensham, R J; Fairfax, R J; Dwyer, J M

2012-04-01

The restoration of cleared dry forest represents an important opportunity to sequester atmospheric carbon. In order to account for this potential, the influences of climate, soils, and disturbance need to be deciphered. A data set spanning a region defined the aboveground biomass of mulga (Acacia aneura) dry forest and was analyzed in relation to climate and soil variables using a Bayesian model averaging procedure. Mean annual rainfall had an overwhelmingly strong positive effect, with mean maximum temperature (negative) and soil depth (positive) also important. The data were collected after a recent drought, and the amount of recent tree mortality was weakly positively related to a measure of three-year rainfall deficit, and maximum temperature (positive), soil depth (negative), and coarse sand (negative). A grazing index represented by the distance of sites to watering points was not incorporated by the models. Stark management contrasts, including grazing exclosures, can represent a substantial part of the variance in the model predicting biomass, but the impact of management was unpredictable and was insignificant in the regional data set. There was no evidence of density-dependent effects on tree mortality. Climate change scenarios represented by the coincidence of historical extreme rainfall deficit with extreme temperature suggest mortality of 30.1% of aboveground biomass, compared to 21.6% after the recent (2003-2007) drought. Projections for recovery of forest using a mapping base of cleared areas revealed that the greatest opportunities for restoration of aboveground biomass are in the higher-rainfall areas, where biomass accumulation will be greatest and droughts are less intense. These areas are probably the most productive for rangeland pastoralism, and the trade-off between pastoral production and carbon sequestration will be determined by market forces and carbon-trading rules.

An Investigation of Three Extremity Armor Systems: Determination of Physiological, Biomechanical, and Physical Performance Effects and Quantification of Body Area Coverage

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-03-19

THREE EXTREMITY ARMOR SYSTEMS: DETERMINATION OF PHYSIOLOGICAL, BIOMECHANICAL, AND PHYSICAL PERFORMANCE EFFECTS AND QUANTIFICATION OF BODY AREA...PHYSICAL PERFORMANCE EFFECTS AND QUANTIFICATION OF BODY AREA COVERAGE 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER MIPR #M9545006MPR6CC7 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT...WORK UNIT NUMBER 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION REPORT NUMBER NATICK/TR-12/014 9

The combined and separate impacts of climate extremes on the current and future US rainfed maize and soybean production under elevated CO 2

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jin, Zhenong; Zhuang, Qianlai; Wang, Jiali

Heat and drought stresses are two emerging climatic threats to the US maize and soybean production, yet their impacts on yields are collectively determined by the magnitude of climate change and rising atmospheric CO2 concentration. Here we present a study that quantified the current and future yield responses of US rainfed maize and soybean to climate extremes, and for the first time characterized spatial shifts in the relative importance of temperature, heat and drought stress. Crop yields are simulated using the Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM), driven by the high-resolution (12 km) Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model downscaled futuremore » climate scenarios at two time slices (1995-2005 and 2085-2094). Our results show that climatic yield gaps and interannual variability are greater in the core production area than in the remaining US by the late 21st century under both Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, and the magnitude of change is highly dependent on the current climate sensitivity and vulnerability. Elevated CO2 partially offsets the climatic yield gaps and reduces interannual yield variability, and effect is more prominent in soybean than in maize. We demonstrate that drought will continue to be the largest threat to US rainfed maize and soybean production, although its dominant role gradually gives way to other impacts of heat extremes. We also reveal that shifts in the geographic distributions of dominant stressors are characterized by increases in the concurrent stress, especially for the US Midwest. These findings imply the importance of considering drought and extreme heat simultaneously for future agronomic adaptation and mitigation strategies, particularly for breeding programs and crop management.« less

Temporal and spatial characteristics of extreme precipitation events in the Midwest of Jilin Province based on multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis method and copula functions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Enliang; Zhang, Jiquan; Si, Ha; Dong, Zhenhua; Cao, Tiehua; Lan, Wu

2017-10-01

Environmental changes have brought about significant changes and challenges to water resources and management in the world; these include increasing climate variability, land use change, intensive agriculture, and rapid urbanization and industrial development, especially much more frequency extreme precipitation events. All of which greatly affect water resource and the development of social economy. In this study, we take extreme precipitation events in the Midwest of Jilin Province as an example; daily precipitation data during 1960-2014 are used. The threshold of extreme precipitation events is defined by multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA) method. Extreme precipitation (EP), extreme precipitation ratio (EPR), and intensity of extreme precipitation (EPI) are selected as the extreme precipitation indicators, and then the Kolmogorov-Smirnov (K-S) test is employed to determine the optimal probability distribution function of extreme precipitation indicators. On this basis, copulas connect nonparametric estimation method and the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) method is adopted to determine the bivariate copula function. Finally, we analyze the characteristics of single variable extremum and bivariate joint probability distribution of the extreme precipitation events. The results show that the threshold of extreme precipitation events in semi-arid areas is far less than that in subhumid areas. The extreme precipitation frequency shows a significant decline while the extreme precipitation intensity shows a trend of growth; there are significant differences in spatiotemporal of extreme precipitation events. The spatial variation trend of the joint return period gets shorter from the west to the east. The spatial distribution of co-occurrence return period takes on contrary changes and it is longer than the joint return period.

Global patterns of extreme drought-induced loss in land primary production: Identifying ecological extremes from rain-use efficiency.

PubMed

Du, Ling; Mikle, Nathaniel; Zou, Zhenhua; Huang, Yuanyuan; Shi, Zheng; Jiang, Lifen; McCarthy, Heather R; Liang, Junyi; Luo, Yiqi

2018-07-01

Quantifying the ecological patterns of loss of ecosystem function in extreme drought is important to understand the carbon exchange between the land and atmosphere. Rain-use efficiency [RUE; gross primary production (GPP)/precipitation] acts as a typical indicator of ecosystem function. In this study, a novel method based on maximum rain-use efficiency (RUE max ) was developed to detect losses of ecosystem function globally. Three global GPP datasets from the MODIS remote sensing data (MOD17), ground upscaling FLUXNET observations (MPI-BGC), and process-based model simulations (BESS), and a global gridded precipitation product (CRU) were used to develop annual global RUE datasets for 2001-2011. Large, well-known extreme drought events were detected, e.g. 2003 drought in Europe, 2002 and 2011 drought in the U.S., and 2010 drought in Russia. Our results show that extreme drought-induced loss of ecosystem function could impact 0.9% ± 0.1% of earth's vegetated land per year and was mainly distributed in semi-arid regions. The reduced carbon uptake caused by functional loss (0.14 ± 0.03 PgC/yr) could explain >70% of the interannual variation in GPP in drought-affected areas (p ≤ 0.001). Our results highlight the impact of ecosystem function loss in semi-arid regions with increasing precipitation variability and dry land expansion expected in the future. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Improving multisensor estimation of heavy-to-extreme precipitation via conditional bias-penalized optimal estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Beomgeun; Seo, Dong-Jun; Noh, Seong Jin; Prat, Olivier P.; Nelson, Brian R.

2018-01-01

A new technique for merging radar precipitation estimates and rain gauge data is developed and evaluated to improve multisensor quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE), in particular, of heavy-to-extreme precipitation. Unlike the conventional cokriging methods which are susceptible to conditional bias (CB), the proposed technique, referred to herein as conditional bias-penalized cokriging (CBPCK), explicitly minimizes Type-II CB for improved quantitative estimation of heavy-to-extreme precipitation. CBPCK is a bivariate version of extended conditional bias-penalized kriging (ECBPK) developed for gauge-only analysis. To evaluate CBPCK, cross validation and visual examination are carried out using multi-year hourly radar and gauge data in the North Central Texas region in which CBPCK is compared with the variant of the ordinary cokriging (OCK) algorithm used operationally in the National Weather Service Multisensor Precipitation Estimator. The results show that CBPCK significantly reduces Type-II CB for estimation of heavy-to-extreme precipitation, and that the margin of improvement over OCK is larger in areas of higher fractional coverage (FC) of precipitation. When FC > 0.9 and hourly gauge precipitation is > 60 mm, the reduction in root mean squared error (RMSE) by CBPCK over radar-only (RO) is about 12 mm while the reduction in RMSE by OCK over RO is about 7 mm. CBPCK may be used in real-time analysis or in reanalysis of multisensor precipitation for which accurate estimation of heavy-to-extreme precipitation is of particular importance.

Effects of Degree of Curing on Fire Spread

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chaivaranont, W.; Evans, J. P.; Liu, Y.

2016-12-01

During extreme summer conditions in Australia, bushfire can become an uncontrollable natural hazard. Various factors, such as geographical and meteorological parameters greatly influence the magnitude of bushfire. In a grassland fire, there is an important factor that affects the severity of fire called the degree of curing. Degree of curing is a percentage measurement of the proportion of dead material in grassland where a 100% curing indicates a totally dead grass field. It is usually assumed constant due to the cost and difficulty in obtaining accurate field observations.To examine the importance of curing, the Phoenix RapidFire fire spread model was used to observe the magnitude and direction of grassland fire spread due to variations in the degree of curing. Idealised experiments and experiments based on 3 past fire events in Australia were conducted, where the 100 by 200 km study area is considered to be all grassland. In the idealised experiments, homogeneous curing data in various patterns were used along with extreme climate data and prescribed topography. In the past fire event experiments, satellite-derived estimated curing data, observed climate data from the nearest weather stations, and real elevation maps were used. A remotely sensed burned area map (MODIS MCD64A1 product) is also used to compare the simulated burned area of past fire events with the satellite observation.The results from both experiments showed that: 1) the rate of spread of grassland fire is significantly impeded when curing is below 75%, 2) topography has insignificant effect on fire spread direction and speed, 3) wind and curing both influence the direction and speed of spread, and 4) the model can only recreate the burned area in one out of three of the past fire events due to various causes including the fact that all past events used here were not exclusively grassland fire.

Long-Term Marine Traffic Monitoring for Environmental Safety in the Aegean Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Giannakopoulos, T.; Gyftakis, S.; Charou, E.; Perantonis, S.; Nivolianitou, Z.; Koromila, I.; Makrygiorgos, A.

2015-04-01

The Aegean Sea is characterized by an extremely high marine safety risk, mainly due to the significant increase of the traffic of tankers from and to the Black Sea that pass through narrow straits formed by the 1600 Greek islands. Reducing the risk of a ship accident is therefore vital to all socio-economic and environmental sectors. This paper presents an online long-term marine traffic monitoring work-flow that focuses on extracting aggregated vessel risks using spatiotemporal analysis of multilayer information: vessel trajectories, vessel data, meteorological data, bathymetric / hydrographic data as well as information regarding environmentally important areas (e.g. protected high-risk areas, etc.). A web interface that enables user-friendly spatiotemporal queries is implemented at the frontend, while a series of data mining functionalities extracts aggregated statistics regarding: (a) marine risks and accident probabilities for particular areas (b) trajectories clustering information (c) general marine statistics (cargo types, etc.) and (d) correlation between spatial environmental importance and marine traffic risk. Towards this end, a set of data clustering and probabilistic graphical modelling techniques has been adopted.

Microrefugia and Shifts of Hippophae tibetana (Elaeagnaceae) on the north side of Mt. Qomolangma (Mt. Everest) during the last 25000 years.

PubMed

Xu, Lu; Wang, Hao; La, Qiong; Lu, Fan; Sun, Kun; Fang, Yang; Yang, Mei; Zhong, Yang; Wu, Qianhong; Chen, Jiakuan; Birks, H John B; Zhang, Wenju

2014-01-01

Microrefugia at high altitudes or high latitudes are thought to play an important role in the post-glacial colonization of species. However, how populations in such microrefugia have responded to climate changes in alternating cold glacial and warm interglacial stages remain unclear. Here we present evidence to indicate the Rongbuk Valley of the Mt. Qomolangma (Mt. Everest) area, the highest region on earth, had microrefugia for Hippophae tibetana and discuss how this low shrub was adapted to the extreme climate fluctuations of the last 25,000 years by shifts. By integrating geological, glaciological, meteorological, and genetic information, we found that the Rongbuk Valley was not only a glacial microrefugium but also an interglacial microrefugium for H. tibetana: the former was located on the riverbank below 4800 m above sea level (asl) or lower area and the latter at ∼ 5000 m asl. Our results show that after the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), H. tibetana in the valley has undergone upward and downward migrations around ∼ 5000 m driven by climate fluctuations and the population in the glacial microrefugium has suffered extinction or extreme contraction. Moreover, with the rise of temperature in the last four decades, the upper limit of H. tibetana has shifted at least 30 m upward. Combining population history and recent range shift of this species is important in predicting the fate of this endemic species to future climate changes.

Microrefugia and Shifts of Hippophae tibetana (Elaeagnaceae) on the North Side of Mt. Qomolangma (Mt. Everest) during the Last 25000 Years

PubMed Central

Lu, Fan; Sun, Kun; Fang, Yang; Yang, Mei; Zhong, Yang; Wu, Qianhong; Chen, Jiakuan; Birks, H. John B.; Zhang, Wenju

2014-01-01

Microrefugia at high altitudes or high latitudes are thought to play an important role in the post-glacial colonization of species. However, how populations in such microrefugia have responded to climate changes in alternating cold glacial and warm interglacial stages remain unclear. Here we present evidence to indicate the Rongbuk Valley of the Mt. Qomolangma (Mt. Everest) area, the highest region on earth, had microrefugia for Hippophae tibetana and discuss how this low shrub was adapted to the extreme climate fluctuations of the last 25,000 years by shifts. By integrating geological, glaciological, meteorological, and genetic information, we found that the Rongbuk Valley was not only a glacial microrefugium but also an interglacial microrefugium for H. tibetana: the former was located on the riverbank below 4800 m above sea level (asl) or lower area and the latter at ∼5000 m asl. Our results show that after the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), H. tibetana in the valley has undergone upward and downward migrations around ∼5000 m driven by climate fluctuations and the population in the glacial microrefugium has suffered extinction or extreme contraction. Moreover, with the rise of temperature in the last four decades, the upper limit of H. tibetana has shifted at least 30 m upward. Combining population history and recent range shift of this species is important in predicting the fate of this endemic species to future climate changes. PMID:24841004

Types, harms and improvement of saline soil in Songnen Plain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Zhengjun; Zhuang, Jingjing; Zhao, Anping; Li, Xinxin

2018-03-01

Saline soil is an extremely difficult and modified soil, widely distributed around the world. According to UN-UNESCO and FAO, the world’s saline soil area is about 9.54×108hm2, and there is a growing trend, every year in 1.0×106-1.5×106hm2 speed growth, the effective utilization of land resources to the world is the most serious threat. The total area of saline-alkali land in China is about 9.91×107hm2, including the Songnen Plain, which is called one of the three major saline soil concentrations in the world. The Songnen plain is an important grain producing area in China, and the saline soil occupies most of the Songnen plain, so it is of great significance to study the saline soil and improvement in Songnen plain.

Large Scale Meteorological Pattern of Extreme Rainfall in Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuswanto, Heri; Grotjahn, Richard; Rachmi, Arinda; Suhermi, Novri; Oktania, Erma; Wijaya, Yosep

2014-05-01

Extreme Weather Events (EWEs) cause negative impacts socially, economically, and environmentally. Considering these facts, forecasting EWEs is crucial work. Indonesia has been identified as being among the countries most vulnerable to the risk of natural disasters, such as floods, heat waves, and droughts. Current forecasting of extreme events in Indonesia is carried out by interpreting synoptic maps for several fields without taking into account the link between the observed events in the 'target' area with remote conditions. This situation may cause misidentification of the event leading to an inaccurate prediction. Grotjahn and Faure (2008) compute composite maps from extreme events (including heat waves and intense rainfall) to help forecasters identify such events in model output. The composite maps show large scale meteorological patterns (LSMP) that occurred during historical EWEs. Some vital information about the EWEs can be acquired from studying such maps, in addition to providing forecaster guidance. Such maps have robust mid-latitude meteorological patterns (for Sacramento and California Central Valley, USA EWEs). We study the performance of the composite approach for tropical weather condition such as Indonesia. Initially, the composite maps are developed to identify and forecast the extreme weather events in Indramayu district- West Java, the main producer of rice in Indonesia and contributes to about 60% of the national total rice production. Studying extreme weather events happening in Indramayu is important since EWEs there affect national agricultural and fisheries activities. During a recent EWE more than a thousand houses in Indramayu suffered from serious flooding with each home more than one meter underwater. The flood also destroyed a thousand hectares of rice plantings in 5 regencies. Identifying the dates of extreme events is one of the most important steps and has to be carried out carefully. An approach has been applied to identify the dates involving observations from multiple sites (rain gauges). The approach combines the POT (Peaks Over Threshold) with 'declustering' of the data to approximate independence based on the autocorrelation structure of each rainfall series. The cross correlation among sites is considered also to develop the event's criteria yielding a rational choice of the extreme dates given the 'spotty' nature of the intense convection. Based on the identified dates, we are developing a supporting tool for forecasting extreme rainfall based on the corresponding large-scale meteorological patterns (LSMPs). The LSMPs methodology focuses on the larger-scale patterns that the model are better able to forecast, as those larger-scale patterns create the conditions fostering the local EWE. Bootstrap resampling method is applied to highlight the key features that statistically significant with the extreme events. Grotjahn, R., and G. Faure. 2008: Composite Predictor Maps of Extraordinary Weather Events in the Sacramento California Region. Weather and Forecasting. 23: 313-335.

Regional Risk Assessment for the analysis of the risks related to storm surge extreme events in the coastal area of the North Adriatic Sea.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rizzi, Jonathan; Torresan, Silvia; Gallina, Valentina; Critto, Andrea; Marcomini, Antonio

2013-04-01

Europe's coast faces a variety of climate change threats from extreme high tides, storm surges and rising sea levels. In particular, it is very likely that mean sea level rise will contribute to upward trends in extreme coastal high water levels, thus posing higher risks to coastal locations currently experiencing coastal erosion and inundation processes. In 2007 the European Commission approved the Flood Directive (2007/60/EC), which has the main purpose to establish a framework for the assessment and management of flood risks for inland and coastal areas, thus reducing the adverse consequences for human health, the environment, cultural heritage and economic activities. Improvements in scientific understanding are thus needed to inform decision-making about the best strategies for mitigating and managing storm surge risks in coastal areas. The CLIMDAT project is aimed at improving the understanding of the risks related to extreme storm surge events in the coastal area of the North Adriatic Sea (Italy), considering potential climate change scenarios. The project implements a Regional Risk Assessment (RRA) methodology developed in the FP7 KULTURisk project for the assessment of physical/environmental impacts posed by flood hazards and employs the DEcision support SYstem for Coastal climate change impact assessment (DESYCO) for the application of the methodology to the case study area. The proposed RRA methodology is aimed at the identification and prioritization of targets and areas at risk from water-related natural hazards in the considered region at the meso-scale. To this aim, it integrates information about extreme storm surges with bio-geophysical and socio-economic information (e.g. vegetation cover, slope, soil type, population density) of the analyzed receptors (i.e. people, economic activities, cultural heritages, natural and semi-natural systems). Extreme storm surge hazard scenarios are defined using tide gauge time series coming from 28 tide gauge stations located in the North Adriatic coastal areas from 1989 to 2011. These data, together with the sea-level rise scenarios for the considered future timeframe, represent the input for the application of the Joint Probability method (Pugh and Vassie, 1979), which allows the evaluation of the maximum height of extreme storm surge events with different return period and the number of extreme events per year. The methodology uses Geographic Information Systems to manage, process, analyse, and visualize data and employs Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis to integrate stakeholders preferences and experts judgments into the analysis in order to obtain a total risk index in the considered region. The final outputs are represented by GIS-based risk maps which allow the communication of the potential consequences of extreme storm surge to decision makers and stakeholders. Moreover, they can support the establishment of relative priorities for intervention through the identification of suitable areas for human settlements, infrastructures and economic activities. Finally the produced output can represent a basis for definition of storm surge hazard and storm surge risk management plans according to the Floods Directive. The preliminary results of the RRA application in the CLIMDAT project will be here presented and discussed.

Assessment of Coastal and Urban Flooding Hazards Applying Extreme Value Analysis and Multivariate Statistical Techniques: A Case Study in Elwood, Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guimarães Nobre, Gabriela; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten; Rosbjerg, Dan; Madsen, Henrik

2016-04-01

Traditionally, flood risk assessment studies have been carried out from a univariate frequency analysis perspective. However, statistical dependence between hydrological variables, such as extreme rainfall and extreme sea surge, is plausible to exist, since both variables to some extent are driven by common meteorological conditions. Aiming to overcome this limitation, multivariate statistical techniques has the potential to combine different sources of flooding in the investigation. The aim of this study was to apply a range of statistical methodologies for analyzing combined extreme hydrological variables that can lead to coastal and urban flooding. The study area is the Elwood Catchment, which is a highly urbanized catchment located in the city of Port Phillip, Melbourne, Australia. The first part of the investigation dealt with the marginal extreme value distributions. Two approaches to extract extreme value series were applied (Annual Maximum and Partial Duration Series), and different probability distribution functions were fit to the observed sample. Results obtained by using the Generalized Pareto distribution demonstrate the ability of the Pareto family to model the extreme events. Advancing into multivariate extreme value analysis, first an investigation regarding the asymptotic properties of extremal dependence was carried out. As a weak positive asymptotic dependence between the bivariate extreme pairs was found, the Conditional method proposed by Heffernan and Tawn (2004) was chosen. This approach is suitable to model bivariate extreme values, which are relatively unlikely to occur together. The results show that the probability of an extreme sea surge occurring during a one-hour intensity extreme precipitation event (or vice versa) can be twice as great as what would occur when assuming independent events. Therefore, presuming independence between these two variables would result in severe underestimation of the flooding risk in the study area.

Can Regional Climate Models be used in the assessment of vulnerability and risk caused by extreme events?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nunes, Ana

2015-04-01

Extreme meteorological events played an important role in catastrophic occurrences observed in the past over densely populated areas in Brazil. This motived the proposal of an integrated system for analysis and assessment of vulnerability and risk caused by extreme events in urban areas that are particularly affected by complex topography. That requires a multi-scale approach, which is centered on a regional modeling system, consisting of a regional (spectral) climate model coupled to a land-surface scheme. This regional modeling system employs a boundary forcing method based on scale-selective bias correction and assimilation of satellite-based precipitation estimates. Scale-selective bias correction is a method similar to the spectral nudging technique for dynamical downscaling that allows internal modes to develop in agreement with the large-scale features, while the precipitation assimilation procedure improves the modeled deep-convection and drives the land-surface scheme variables. Here, the scale-selective bias correction acts only on the rotational part of the wind field, letting the precipitation assimilation procedure to correct moisture convergence, in order to reconstruct South American current climate within the South American Hydroclimate Reconstruction Project. The hydroclimate reconstruction outputs might eventually produce improved initial conditions for high-resolution numerical integrations in metropolitan regions, generating more reliable short-term precipitation predictions, and providing accurate hidrometeorological variables to higher resolution geomorphological models. Better representation of deep-convection from intermediate scales is relevant when the resolution of the regional modeling system is refined by any method to meet the scale of geomorphological dynamic models of stability and mass movement, assisting in the assessment of risk areas and estimation of terrain stability over complex topography. The reconstruction of past extreme events also helps the development of a system for decision-making, regarding natural and social disasters, and reducing impacts. Numerical experiments using this regional modeling system successfully modeled severe weather events in Brazil. Comparisons with the NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis outputs were made at resolutions of about 40- and 25-km of the regional climate model.

How do extreme streamflow due to hurricane IRMA compare during 1938-2017 in South Eastern US?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anandhi, A.

2017-12-01

The question related to Irma, Harvey, Maria, and other hurricanes is: are hurricane more frequent and intense than they have been in the past. Recent hurricanes were unusually strong hitting the US Coastline or territories as a category 4 or 5, dropping unusually large amounts of precipitation on the affected areas creating extreme high-flow events in rivers and streams in affected areas. The objective of the study is to determine how extreme are streamflows from recent hurricanes (e.g. IRMA) when compared to streamflow's during 1938-2017 time-period. Additionally, in this study, the extreme precipitations are also compared during IRMA. Extreme high flows are selected from Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration (IHA). They are distributions, timing, duration, frequency, magnitude, pulses, and days of extreme events in rivers of the southeastern United States and Gulf of Mexico Hydrologic Region—03. Streamflow data from 30 stations in the region with at least 79 years of record (1938-2017) are used. Historical precipitation changes is obtained from meta-analysis of published literature. Our preliminary results indicate the extremeness of streamflow from recent hurricanes vary with the IHA indicator selected. Some potential implications of these extreme events on the region's ecosystem are also discussed using causal chains and loops.

Variability of Extreme Precipitation Events in Tijuana, Mexico During ENSO Years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cavazos, T.; Rivas, D.

2007-05-01

We present the variability of daily precipitation extremes (top 10 percecnt) in Tijuana, Mexico during 1950-2000. Interannual rainfall variability is significantly modulated by El Nino/Southern Oscillation. The interannual precipitation variability exhibits a large change with a relatively wet period and more variability during 1976- 2000. The wettest years and the largest frequency of daily extremes occurred after 1976-1977, with 6 out of 8 wet years characterized by El Nino episodes and 2 by neutral conditions. However, more than half of the daily extremes during 1950-2000 occurred in non-ENSO years, evidencing that neutral conditions also contribute significantly to extreme climatic variability in the region. Extreme events that occur in neutral (strong El Nino) conditions are associated with a pineapple express and a neutral PNA (negative TNH) teleconnection pattern that links an anomalous tropical convective forcing west (east) of the date line with a strong subtropical jet over the study area. At regional scale, both types of extremes are characterized by a trough in the subtropical jet over California/Baja California, which is further intensified by thermal interaction with an anomalous warm California Current off Baja California, low-level moisture advection from the subtropical warm sea-surface region, intense convective activity over the study area and extreme rainfall from southern California to Baja California.

Nitrogen-fixing legume tree species for the reclamation of severely degraded lands in Brazil.

PubMed

Chaer, Guilherme Montandon; Resende, Alexander Silva; Campello, Eduardo Francia Carneiro; de Faria, Sergio Miana; Boddey, Robert Michael

2011-02-01

The main challenges faced in the reclamation of severely degraded lands are in the management of the systems and finding plant species that will grow under the harsh conditions common in degraded soils. This is especially important in extremely adverse situations found in some substrates from mining activities or soils that have lost their upper horizons. Under these conditions, recolonization of the area by native vegetation through natural succession processes may be extremely limited. Once the main physical and chemical factors restrictive to plant growth are corrected or attenuated, the introduction of leguminous trees able to form symbioses with nodulating N₂-fixing bacteria and arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi constitutes an efficient strategy to accelerate soil reclamation and initiate natural succession. These symbioses give the legume species a superior capacity to grow quickly in poor substrates and to withstand the harsh conditions presented in degraded soils. In this article we describe several successful results in Brazil using N₂-fixing legume tree species for reclamation of areas degraded by soil erosion, construction and mining activities, emphasizing the potential of the technique to recover soil organic matter levels and restore ecosystem biodiversity and other environmental functions.

Effectiveness of Occupational Therapy Interventions for Lower-Extremity Musculoskeletal Disorders: A Systematic Review.

PubMed

Dorsey, Julie; Bradshaw, Michelle

Lower-extremity (LE) musculoskeletal disorders (MSDs) can have a major impact on the ability to carry out daily activities. The effectiveness of interventions must be examined to enable occupational therapy practitioners to deliver the most appropriate services. This systematic review examined the literature published between 1995 and July 2014 that investigated the effectiveness of occupational therapy interventions for LE MSDs. Forty-three articles met the criteria and were reviewed. Occupational therapy interventions varied on the basis of population subgroup: hip fracture, LE joint replacement, LE amputation or limb loss, and nonsurgical osteoarthritis and pain. The results indicate an overall strong role for occupational therapy in treating clients with LE MSDs. Activity pacing is an effective intervention for nonsurgical LE MSDs, and multidisciplinary rehabilitation is effective for LE joint replacement and amputation. Further research on specific occupational therapy interventions in this important area is needed. Copyright © 2017 by the American Occupational Therapy Association, Inc.

The West Nile Virus outbreak in Israel (2000) from a new perspective: the regional impact of climate change.

PubMed

Paz, Shlomit

2006-02-01

The West Nile Virus (WNV) outbreak in Israel in 2000 appeared after medical and climatic warning signs. Re-analysis of the epidemic from a new viewpoint, the regional impact of global warming, especially the worsening in the summers' heat conditions, is presented. The disease appeared averagely at a lag of 3-9 weeks (strongest correlation = lag of 7 weeks). The minimum temperature was found as the most important climatic factor that encourages the disease earlier appearance. Extreme heat is more significant than high air humidity for increasing WNV cases. An early extreme rise in the summer temperature could be a good indicator of increased vector populations. While 93.5% of cases were in the metropolitan areas, the disease was not reported in the sub-arid regions. The outbreak development was comparable to the cases from Romania (1996) and NYC (1999). Each of those epidemics appeared after a long heatwave.

Spatial variation in extreme winds predicts large wildfire locations in chaparral ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moritz, Max A.; Moody, Tadashi J.; Krawchuk, Meg A.; Hughes, Mimi; Hall, Alex

2010-02-01

Fire plays a crucial role in many ecosystems, and a better understanding of different controls on fire activity is needed. Here we analyze spatial variation in fire danger during episodic wind events in coastal southern California, a densely populated Mediterranean-climate region. By reconstructing almost a decade of fire weather patterns through detailed simulations of Santa Ana winds, we produced the first high-resolution map of where these hot, dry winds are consistently most severe and which areas are relatively sheltered. We also analyzed over half a century of mapped fire history in chaparral ecosystems of the region, finding that our models successfully predict where the largest wildfires are most likely to occur. There is a surprising lack of information about extreme wind patterns worldwide, and more quantitative analyses of their spatial variation will be important for effective fire management and sustainable long-term urban development on fire-prone landscapes.

Decision strategies for handling the uncertainty of future extreme rainfall under the influence of climate change.

PubMed

Gregersen, I B; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, K

2012-01-01

Several extraordinary rainfall events have occurred in Denmark within the last few years. For each event, problems in urban areas occurred as the capacity of the existing drainage systems were exceeded. Adaptation to climate change is necessary but also very challenging as urban drainage systems are characterized by long technical lifetimes and high, unrecoverable construction costs. One of the most important barriers for the initiation and implementation of the adaptation strategies is therefore the uncertainty when predicting the magnitude of the extreme rainfall in the future. This challenge is explored through the application and discussion of three different theoretical decision support strategies: the precautionary principle, the minimax strategy and Bayesian decision support. The reviewed decision support strategies all proved valuable for addressing the identified uncertainties, at best applied together as they all yield information that improved decision making and thus enabled more robust decisions.

Object-based Classification for Detecting Landslides and Stochastic Procedure to landslide susceptibility maps - A Case at Baolai Village, SW Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Ying-Tong; Chang, Kuo-Chen; Yang, Ci-Jian

2017-04-01

As the result of global warming in the past decades, Taiwan has experienced more and more extreme typhoons with hazardous massive landslides. In this study, we use object-oriented analysis method to classify landslide area at Baolai village by using Formosat-2 satellite images. We used for multiresolution segmented to generate the blocks, and used hierarchical logic to classified 5 different kinds of features. After that, classification the landslide into different type of landslide. Beside, we use stochastic procedure to integrate landslide susceptibility maps. This study assumed that in the extreme event, 2009 Typhoon Morakot, which precipitation goes to 1991.5mm in 5 days, and the highest landslide susceptible area. The results show that study area's landslide area was greatly changes, most of landslide was erosion by gully and made dip slope slide, or erosion by the stream, especially at undercut bank. From the landslide susceptibility maps, we know that the old landslide area have high potential to occur landslides in the extreme event. This study demonstrates the changing of landslide area and the landslide susceptible area. Keywords: Formosat-2, object-oriented, segmentation, classification, landslide, Baolai Village, SW Taiwan, FS

Assessing storm events for energy meteorology: using media and scientific reports to track a North Sea autumn storm.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kettle, Anthony

2016-04-01

Important issues for energy meteorology are to assess meteorological conditions for normal operating conditions and extreme events for the ultimate limit state of engineering structures. For the offshore environment in northwest Europe, energy meteorology encompasses weather conditions relevant for petroleum production infrastructure and also the new field of offshore wind energy production. Autumn and winter storms are an important issue for offshore operations in the North Sea. The weather in this region is considered as challenging for extreme meteorological events as the Gulf of Mexico with its attendant hurricane risk. The rise of the Internet and proliferation of digital recording devices has placed a much greater amount of information in the public domain than was available to national meteorological agencies even 20 years ago. This contribution looks at reports of meteorology and infrastructure damage from a storm in the autumn of 2006 to trace the spatial and temporal record of meteorological events. Media reports give key information to assess the events of the storm. The storm passed over northern Europe between Oct.31-Nov. 2, 2006, and press reports from the time indicate that its most important feature was a high surge that inundated coastal areas. Sections of the Dutch and German North Sea coast were affected, and there was record flooding in Denmark and East Germany in the southern Baltic Sea. Extreme wind gusts were also reported that were strong enough to damage roofs and trees, and there was even tornado recorded near the Dutch-German border. Offshore, there were a series of damage reports from ship and platforms that were linked with sea state, and reports of rogue waves were explicitly mentioned. Many regional government authorities published summaries of geophysical information related to the storm, and these form part of a regular series of online winter storm reports that started as a public service about 15 years ago. Depending on the issuing authority, these reports include wind speed and atmospheric pressure for a number of stations. However, there is also important ancillary information that includes satellite images, weather radar pictures, sea state recordings, tide gauge records, and coastal surveys. When collated together, the literature survey gives good view of events related to the autumn storm. The key information from media reports is backed up by quantitative numbers from the scientific literature. For energy meteorology in the offshore environment, there is an outline of extreme wave events that may be important to help define the ultimate limit state of engineering structures and the return periods of extreme waves. While this contribution focusses on events from an old storm in the autumn of 2006, more severe regional storms have occurred since then, and the scientific literature indicates that these may be linked with climate warming. Literature surveys may help to fully define extreme meteorological conditions offshore and benefit different branches of the energy industry in Europe.

Towards a real-time wide area motion imagery system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Young, R. I.; Foulkes, S. B.

2015-10-01

It is becoming increasingly important in both the defence and security domains to conduct persistent wide area surveillance (PWAS) of large populations of targets. Wide Area Motion Imagery (WAMI) is a key technique for achieving this wide area surveillance. The recent development of multi-million pixel sensors has provided sensors with wide field of view replete with sufficient resolution for detection and tracking of objects of interest to be achieved across these extended areas of interest. WAMI sensors simultaneously provide high spatial and temporal resolutions, giving extreme pixel counts over large geographical areas. The high temporal resolution is required to enable effective tracking of targets. The provision of wide area coverage with high frame rates generates data deluge issues; these are especially profound if the sensor is mounted on an airborne platform, with finite data-link bandwidth and processing power that is constrained by size, weight and power (SWAP) limitations. These issues manifest themselves either as bottlenecks in the transmission of the imagery off-board or as latency in the time taken to analyse the data due to limited computational processing power.

Examining global extreme sea level variations on the coast from in-situ and remote observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Menendez, Melisa; Benkler, Anna S.

2017-04-01

The estimation of extreme water level values on the coast is a requirement for a wide range of engineering and coastal management applications. In addition, climate variations of extreme sea levels on the coastal area result from a complex interacting of oceanic, atmospheric and terrestrial processes across a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. In this study, variations of extreme sea level return values are investigated from two available sources of information: in-situ tide-gauge records and satellite altimetry data. Long time series of sea level from tide-gauge records are the most valuable observations since they directly measure water level in a specific coastal location. They have however a number of sources of in-homogeneities that may affect the climate description of extremes when this data source is used. Among others, the presence of gaps, historical time in-homogeneities and jumps in the mean sea level signal are factors that can provide uncertainty in the characterization of the extreme sea level behaviour. Moreover, long records from tide-gauges are sparse and there are many coastal areas worldwide without in-situ available information. On the other hand, with the accumulating altimeter records of several satellite missions from the 1990s, approaching 25 recorded years at the time of writing, it is becoming possible the analysis of extreme sea level events from this data source. Aside the well-known issue of altimeter measurements very close to the coast (mainly due to corruption by land, wet troposphere path delay errors and local tide effects on the coastal area), there are other aspects that have to be considered when sea surface height values estimated from satellite are going to be used in a statistical extreme model, such as the use of a multi-mission product to get long observed periods and the selection of the maxima sample, since altimeter observations do not provide values uniform in time and space. Here, we have compared the extreme values of 'still water level' and 'non-tidal-residual' of in-situ records from the GESLA2 dataset (Woodworth et al. 2016) against the novel coastal altimetry datasets (Cipollini et al. 2016). Seasonal patterns, inter-annual variability and long-term trends are analyzed. Then, a time-dependent extreme model (Menendez et al. 2009) is applied to characterize extreme sea level return values and their variability on the coastal area around the world.

Limping in toddlers: pelvic abscess presenting with transient synovitis picture.

PubMed

Topoz, Irina; Manole, Mioara D

2011-12-01

Limping is a common presenting pediatric complaint, caused by conditions originating in the lower extremities as well as in anatomical areas surrounding the hip joint. Pathologic processes presenting with limping include trauma, inflammation, infection, and malignancy. In this report, we present a case of pelvic abscess presenting with limping in a toddler. We review common conditions presenting with limping in this age group, and discuss laboratory and radiographic evaluation of limping in toddlers. A 20-month-old previously healthy boy presented for evaluation of limping and history of fever. The physical examination was suggestive of transient synovitis. Radiological evaluation revealed normal hip X-ray study, a normal complete blood count, and a moderately increased erythrocyte sedimentation rate. Due to the persistence of limping, tenderness over the inguinal area and subsequent development of edema over the inguinal area, magnetic resonance images of the hip and pelvis were obtained, which revealed a pelvic abscess. The patient improved after ultrasound-guided drainage of the abscess and a course of intravenous antibiotics. Although transient synovitis is the most common pathology that causes limping in toddlers, limping can also be a presentation of pelvic pathology. Thus, in this age group, a detailed physical examination of the patient with special emphasis on structures adjacent to the hip joint is extremely important. Laboratory evaluation and additional imaging help confirm the suspected diagnosis. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Contemporary (post-Wills) survey of the views of Australian medical researchers: importance of funding, infrastructure and motivators for a research career.

PubMed

Shewan, Louise G; Glatz, Jane A; Bennett, Christine C; Coats, Andrew J S

To investigate the perceptions of Australian health and medical researchers 4 years after the Wills Report recommended and led to a substantial increase in health and medical research funding in Australia. A telephone poll of 501 active health and medical researchers, conducted between 28 April and 5 May, 2003. Researchers' views on the adequacy of funding, infrastructure and support, salary, community recognition, the excitement of discovery and research outcomes such as publication and patenting in research. Research funding was the most important concern: 91% of researchers (455/498) viewed funding as "very" or "extremely" important to their role, but only 10% (52/500) were "very" or "extremely" satisfied with the level of funding. Research infrastructure and support were seen as "very" or "extremely" important by 90% of researchers (449/501), while only 21% (104/501) were "very" or "extremely" satisfied. Researchers in medical research institutes were significantly more likely to be satisfied (27% [56/205] "very" or "extremely" satisfied) with the level of infrastructure and support than those working in universities (15% [41/268] "very" or "extremely" satisfied; P = 0.001). Among the factors that motivate researchers, the excitement of discovery stood out in terms of both high importance and satisfaction. Publications were viewed as more important research outcomes than patenting or commercial ventures. Funding and infrastructure support remain overwhelmingly researchers' greatest concerns. University-based researchers were less satisfied with infrastructure and support than those in independent medical research institutes.

Clark's nutcracker spatial memory: the importance of large, structural cues.

PubMed

Bednekoff, Peter A; Balda, Russell P

2014-02-01

Clark's nutcrackers, Nucifraga columbiana, cache and recover stored seeds in high alpine areas including areas where snowfall, wind, and rockslides may frequently obscure or alter cues near the cache site. Previous work in the laboratory has established that Clark's nutcrackers use spatial memory to relocate cached food. Following from aspects of this work, we performed experiments to test the importance of large, structural cues for Clark's nutcracker spatial memory. Birds were no more accurate in recovering caches when more objects were on the floor of a large experimental room nor when this room was subdivided with a set of panels. However, nutcrackers were consistently less accurate in this large room than in a small experimental room. Clark's nutcrackers probably use structural features of experimental rooms as important landmarks during recovery of cached food. This use of large, extremely stable cues may reflect the imperfect reliability of smaller, closer cues in the natural habitat of Clark's nutcrackers. This article is part of a Special Issue entitled: CO3 2013. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Brazilian research on extremophiles in the context of astrobiology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duarte, Rubens T. D.; Nóbrega, Felipe; Nakayama, Cristina R.; Pellizari, Vivian H.

2012-10-01

Extremophiles are organisms adapted to grow at extreme ranges of environmental variables, such as high or low temperatures, acid or alkaline medium, high salt concentration, high pressures and so forth. Most extremophiles are micro-organisms that belong to the Archaea and Bacteria domains, and are widely spread across the world, which include the polar regions, volcanoes, deserts, deep oceanic sediments, hydrothermal vents, hypersaline lakes, acid and alkaline water bodies, and other extreme environments considered hostile to human life. Despite the tropical climate, Brazil has a wide range of ecosystems which include some permanent or seasonally extreme environments. For example, the Cerrado is a biome with very low soil pH with high Al+3 concentration, the mangroves in the Brazilian coast are anaerobic and saline, Pantanal has thousands of alkaline-saline lakes, the Caatinga arid and hot soils and the deep sea sediments in the Brazilian ocean shelf. These environments harbour extremophilic organisms that, coupled with the high natural biodiversity in Brazil, could be explored for different purposes. However, only a few projects in Brazil intended to study the extremophiles. In the frame of astrobiology, for example, these organisms could provide important models for defining the limits of life and hypothesize about life outside Earth. Brazilian microbiologists have, however, studied the extremophilic micro-organisms inhabiting non-Brazilian environments, such as the Antarctic continent. The experience and previous results obtained from the Brazilian Antarctic Program (PROANTAR) provide important results that are directly related to astrobiology. This article is a brief synopsis of the Brazilian experience in researching extremophiles, indicating the most important results related to astrobiology and some future perspectives in this area.

A Millennial Challenge: Extremism in Uncertain Times

PubMed Central

Fiske, Susan T.

2014-01-01

This comment highlights the relevance and importance of the uncertainty-extremism topic, both scientifically and societally, identifies common themes, locates this work in a wider scientific and social context, describes what we now know and what we still do not, acknowledges some limitations, foreshadowing future directions, and discusses some potential policy relevance. Common themes emerge around the importance of social justice as sound anti-extremism policy. PMID:24511155

Environmental assessment of mining industry solid pollution in the mercurial district of Azzaba, northeast Algeria.

PubMed

Seklaoui, M'hamed; Boutaleb, Abdelhak; Benali, Hanafi; Alligui, Fadila; Prochaska, Walter

2016-11-01

To date, there have been few detailed studies regarding the impact of mining and metallogenic activities on solid fractions in the Azzaba mercurial district (northeast Algeria) despite its importance and global similarity with large Hg mines. To assess the degree, distribution, and sources of pollution, a physical inventory of apparent pollution was developed, and several samples of mining waste, process waste, sediment, and soil were collected on regional and local scales to determine the concentration of Hg and other metals according to their existing mineralogical association. Several physico-chemical parameters that are known to influence the pollution distribution are realized. The extremely high concentrations of all metals exceed all norms and predominantly characterize the metallurgic and mining areas; the metal concentrations significantly decrease at significant low distances from these sources. The geo-accumulation index, which is the most realistic assessment method, demonstrates that soils and sediments near waste dumps and abandoned Hg mines are extremely polluted by all analyzed metals. The pollution by these metals decreases significantly with distance, which indicates a limited dispersion. The results of a clustering analysis and an integrated pollution index suggest that waste dumps, which are composed of calcine and condensation wastes, are the main source of pollution. Correlations and principal component analysis reveal the important role of hosting carbonate rocks in limiting pollution and differentiating calcine wastes from condensation waste, which has an extremely high Hg concentration (˃1 %).

Prioritizing Wetlands for Waterbirds in a Boom and Bust System: Waterbird Refugia and Breeding in the Murray-Darling Basin.

PubMed

Bino, Gilad; Kingsford, Richard T; Porter, John

2015-01-01

Dryland rivers have considerable flow variability, producing complex ecosystems, processes, and communities of organisms that vary over space and time. They are also among the more vulnerable of the world's ecosystems. A key strategy for conservation of dryland rivers is identifying and maintaining key sites for biodiversity conservation, particularly protecting the quantity and quality of flow and flooding regimes. Extreme variability considerably challenges freshwater conservation planning. We systematically prioritised wetlands for waterbirds (simultaneously for 52 species), across about 13.5% of the Murray-Darling Basin (1,061,469 km2), using a 30-year record of systematic aerial surveys of waterbird populations. Nine key wetlands in this area, primarily lakes, floodplains, and swamps, consistently contributed to a representation target (80%) of total abundances of all 52 waterbird species. The long temporal span of our data included dramatic availability (i.e., booms) and scarcity (i.e., busts) of water, providing a unique opportunity to test prioritisation at extremes of variation. These extremes represented periods when waterbirds were breeding or concentrating on refugia, varying wetland prioritisation. In dry years, important wetlands for waterbirds were riverine and lacustrine (12 wetlands) but this changed in wet years to lacustrine and palustrine (8 wetlands). Such variation in ecosystem condition substantially changes the relative importance of individual wetlands for waterbirds during boom and bust phases. Incorporating this variability is necessary for effective conservation of Murray-Darling Basin waterbirds, with considerable generality for other similarly variable systems around the world.

Losing your edge: climate change and the conservation value of range-edge populations.

PubMed

Rehm, Evan M; Olivas, Paulo; Stroud, James; Feeley, Kenneth J

2015-10-01

Populations occurring at species' range edges can be locally adapted to unique environmental conditions. From a species' perspective, range-edge environments generally have higher severity and frequency of extreme climatic events relative to the range core. Under future climates, extreme climatic events are predicted to become increasingly important in defining species' distributions. Therefore, range-edge genotypes that are better adapted to extreme climates relative to core populations may be essential to species' persistence during periods of rapid climate change. We use relatively simple conceptual models to highlight the importance of locally adapted range-edge populations (leading and trailing edges) for determining the ability of species to persist under future climates. Using trees as an example, we show how locally adapted populations at species' range edges may expand under future climate change and become more common relative to range-core populations. We also highlight how large-scale habitat destruction occurring in some geographic areas where many species range edge converge, such as biome boundaries and ecotones (e.g., the arc of deforestation along the rainforest-cerrado ecotone in the southern Amazonia), can have major implications for global biodiversity. As climate changes, range-edge populations will play key roles in helping species to maintain or expand their geographic distributions. The loss of these locally adapted range-edge populations through anthropogenic disturbance is therefore hypothesized to reduce the ability of species to persist in the face of rapid future climate change.

Attribution of extreme rainfall from Hurricane Harvey, August 2017

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan; van der Wiel, Karin; Sebastian, Antonia; Singh, Roop; Arrighi, Julie; Otto, Friederike; Haustein, Karsten; Li, Sihan; Vecchi, Gabriel; Cullen, Heidi

2017-12-01

During August 25-30, 2017, Hurricane Harvey stalled over Texas and caused extreme precipitation, particularly over Houston and the surrounding area on August 26-28. This resulted in extensive flooding with over 80 fatalities and large economic costs. It was an extremely rare event: the return period of the highest observed three-day precipitation amount, 1043.4 mm 3dy-1 at Baytown, is more than 9000 years (97.5% one-sided confidence interval) and return periods exceeded 1000 yr (750 mm 3dy-1) over a large area in the current climate. Observations since 1880 over the region show a clear positive trend in the intensity of extreme precipitation of between 12% and 22%, roughly two times the increase of the moisture holding capacity of the atmosphere expected for 1 °C warming according to the Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) relation. This would indicate that the moisture flux was increased by both the moisture content and stronger winds or updrafts driven by the heat of condensation of the moisture. We also analysed extreme rainfall in the Houston area in three ensembles of 25 km resolution models. The first also shows 2 × CC scaling, the second 1 × CC scaling and the third did not have a realistic representation of extreme rainfall on the Gulf Coast. Extrapolating these results to the 2017 event, we conclude that global warming made the precipitation about 15% (8%-19%) more intense, or equivalently made such an event three (1.5-5) times more likely. This analysis makes clear that extreme rainfall events along the Gulf Coast are on the rise. And while fortifying Houston to fully withstand the impact of an event as extreme as Hurricane Harvey may not be economically feasible, it is critical that information regarding the increasing risk of extreme rainfall events in general should be part of the discussion about future improvements to Houston’s flood protection system.

Analysis of extreme summers and prior late winter/spring conditions in central Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Träger-Chatterjee, C.; Müller, R. W.; Bendix, J.

2013-05-01

Drought and heat waves during summer in mid-latitudes are a serious threat to human health and agriculture and have negative impacts on the infrastructure, such as problems in energy supply. The appearance of such extreme events is expected to increase with the progress of global warming. A better understanding of the development of extremely hot and dry summers and the identification of possible precursors could help improve existing seasonal forecasts in this regard, and could possibly lead to the development of early warning methods. The development of extremely hot and dry summer seasons in central Europe is attributed to a combined effect of the dominance of anticyclonic weather regimes and soil moisture-atmosphere interactions. The atmospheric circulation largely determines the amount of solar irradiation and the amount of precipitation in an area. These two variables are themselves major factors controlling the soil moisture. Thus, solar irradiation and precipitation are used as proxies to analyse extreme sunny and dry late winter/spring and summer seasons for the period 1958-2011 in Germany and adjacent areas. For this purpose, solar irradiation data from the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecast 40-yr and interim re-analysis dataset, as well as remote sensing data are used. Precipitation data are taken from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project. To analyse the atmospheric circulation geopotential data at 850 hPa are also taken from the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecast 40-yr and interim re-analysis datasets. For the years in which extreme summers in terms of high solar irradiation and low precipitation are identified, the previous late winter/spring conditions of solar irradiation and precipitation in Germany and adjacent areas are analysed. Results show that if the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is not very intensely developed, extremely high solar irradiation amounts, together with extremely low precipitation amounts during late winter/spring, might serve as precursor of extremely sunny and dry summer months to be expected.

Changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in western central Africa, Guinea Conakry, and Zimbabwe, 1955-2006

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aguilar, E.; Aziz Barry, A.; Brunet, M.; Ekang, L.; Fernandes, A.; Massoukina, M.; Mbah, J.; Mhanda, A.; Do Nascimento, D. J.; Peterson, T. C.; Thamba Umba, O.; Tomou, M.; Zhang, X.

2009-01-01

Understanding how extremes are changing globally, regionally, and locally is an important first step for planning appropriate adaptation measures, as changes in extremes have major impacts. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's synthesis of global extremes was not able to say anything about western central Africa, as no analysis of the region was available nor was there an adequate internationally exchanged long-term daily data set available to use for analysis of extremes. This paper presents the first analysis of extremes in this climatically important region along with analysis of Guinea Conakry and Zimbabwe. As per many other parts of the world, the analysis shows a decrease in cold extremes and an increase in warm extremes. However, while the majority of the analyzed world has shown an increase in heavy precipitation over the last half century, central Africa showed a decrease. Furthermore, the companion analysis of Guinea Conakry and Zimbabwe showed no significant increases.

Impact of winter cooling on the northern part of the Black Sea.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Savchenko, Anatolii

2016-07-01

Climate change in the future may have a negative impact on many countries due to the increasing surface temperature and sea level rise. Probably, unprecedented largest positive trend of surface temperature, which observed since the mid XX century, has associated with increasing human activities around the world. Moreover, this warming will continue in this century, and at the end of the XXI century will be 2 - 5 ºC. Thus, investigation and monitoring of current climate are very important and necessary tasks. Regional model data (downscaling) and satellite data are used, because of underdeveloped network of meteorological stations in the northern part of the Black Sea region. Experiment of downscaling was carried out for the Black Sea region with a high spatial resolution of 0.22° x 0.22° for 1958 - 2007(daily values). For the Black Sea were also used satellite data of sea surface temperature(SST) from MyOcean-2 Project, which CNR(Rome) has reprocessed Pathfinder V5.2 (PFV52) AVHRR data over period 1981 - 2012 with daily gap-free maps (L4) at the original PFV52 resolution at 0.04° x 0.04°. Correlation between satellite SST and surface temperature from regional model climate are amounted 0,99. Thus, surface temperature of model and satellite data for the Black Sea is much correlated between yourself. The following integral characteristics of the Black Sea are referred to the area of sea limited by the 44 - 47º N and 28 - 34º E. Maximum cooling of the north-western part of the Black Sea in winter is occurs after invasion of cold air across the northern border of the basin. In addition, this water area is also interesting in the presence of her huge oil and gas reserves, as well as the construction of liquefied gas (crude oil) terminals. The maximum values of total heat flux (sensible + latent heat fluxes= Q) corresponding to the minimum values of SST are observed during the periods of the negative phase of the NAO. Besides, fluxes with extreme days P (Q) = 95% (the number of which is 5% of the total number of winter days) contribute ≈ 16 - 18% of the total heat flux during the winter, and with P (Q) = 90% - approximately 30%. Typical synoptic situation of extreme winter cooling P (Q) = 95% is presence of anticyclone in the district of Carpathian Mountains. North-easterly flow of cold air at high velocities near-surface wind leads to extreme total heat flux and decreasing SST. Satellite images of clouds well illustrate such cases as, for example, cold air invasion to the Black Sea area on January 23, 2006 (Satellite TERRA). Because of increase of risk associated with climate change, this topic is particularly relevant for the marine area, which is subjected to strong weathering during extreme events in winter. The monitoring of this area will allow reducing the damage from extreme natural events in the future.

The analysis of dependence between extreme rainfall and storm surge in the coastal zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zheng, F.; Westra, S.

2012-12-01

Flooding in coastal catchments can be caused by runoff generated by an extreme rainfall event, elevated sea levels due to an extreme storm surge event, or the combination of both processes occurring simultaneously or in close succession. Dependence in extreme rainfall and storm surge arises because common meteorological forcings often drive both variables; for example, cyclonic systems may produce extreme rainfall, strong onshore winds and an inverse barometric effect simultaneously, which the former factor influencing catchment discharge and the latter two factors influencing storm surge. Nevertheless there is also the possibility that only one of the variables is extreme at any given time, so that the dependence between rainfall and storm surge is not perfect. Quantification of the strength of dependence between these processes is critical in evaluating the magnitude of flood risk in the coastal zone. This may become more important in the future as the majority of the coastal areas are threatened by the sea level rise due to the climate change. This research uses the most comprehensive record of rainfall and storm surge along the coastline of Australia collected to-date to investigate the strength of dependence between the extreme rainfall and storm surge along the Australia coastline. A bivariate logistic threshold-excess model was employed to this end to carry out the dependence analysis. The strength of the estimated dependence is then evaluated as a function of several factors including: the distance between the tidal gauge and the rain gauge; the lag between the extreme precipitation event and extreme surge event; and the duration of the maximum storm burst. The results show that the dependence between the extreme rainfall and storm surge along the Australia coastline is statistically significant, although some locations clearly exhibit stronger dependence than others. We hypothesize that this is due to a combination of large-scale meteorological effects as well as local scale bathymetry. Additionally, significant dependence can be observed over spatial distances of up to several hundred kilometers, implying that meso-scale meteorological forcings may play an important role in driving the dependence. This is also consistent with the result which shows that significant dependence often remaining for lags of up to one or two days between extremal rainfall and storm surge events. The influence of storm burst duration can also be observed, with rainfall extremes lasting more than several hours typically being more closely associated with storm surge compared with sub-hourly rainfall extremes. These results will have profound implications for how flood risk is evaluated along the coastal zone in Australia, with the strength of dependence varying depending on: (1) the dominant meteorological conditions; (2) the local estuary configuration, influencing the strength of the surge; and (3) the catchment attributes, influencing the duration of the storm burst that will deliver the peak flood events. Although a strong random component remains, we show that the probability of an extreme storm surge during an extreme rainfall event (or vice versa) can be up to ten times greater than under the situation under which there is no dependence, suggesting that failure to account for these interactions can result in a substantial underestimation of flood risk.

Sediment dynamics in restored riparian forest with different widths and agricultural surroundings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stucchi Boschi, Raquel; Simões da Silva, Laura; Ribeiro Rodrigues, Ricardo; Cooper, Miguel

2016-04-01

The riparian forests are essential to maintaining the quality of water resources, aquifer recharge and biodiversity. Due to the ecological services provided by riparian forests, these areas are considered by the law as Permanent Preservation Areas, being mandatory maintenance and restoration. However, the obligation of restoration and the extent of the Permanent Preservation Areas as defined by the Brazilian Forest Code, based on water body width, elucidates the lack of accurate scientific data on the influence of the size of the riparian forest in maintaining their ecological functions, particularly regarding the retention of sediments. Studies that evaluate the ideal width of riparian forests to guarantee their ecological functions are scarce and not conclusive, especially when we consider newly restored forests, located in agricultural areas. In this study, we investigate the dynamics of erosion and sedimentation in restored riparian forests with different widths situated in agricultural areas. The two study areas are located in a Semideciduous Tropical Forest inserted in sugarcane landscapes of São Paulo state, Brazil. The installed plots had 60 and 100 m in length and the riparian forest has a width of 15, 30 and 50 m. The characteristics of the sediments inside the plots were evaluated by detailed morphological and micromorphological studies as well as physical characterization. The dynamics of deposition and the amount of deposited sediments have been assessed with graded metal stakes partially buried inside the plots. The intensity, frequency and distribution of rainfall, as well as the occurrence of extreme events, have been evaluated by data collected from rain gauges installed in the areas. We expect that smaller widths are not able to retain sediments originated from the adjacent sugarcane areas. We also believe that extreme events are responsible for generating most of the sediments. The results will be important to support the discussion about an ideal width of riparian vegetation to ensure the retention of sediments and quality of water bodies.

Salivary duct cyst on lower lip: A rare entity and literature review

PubMed Central

Tandon, Ankita; Sircar, Keya; Chowdhry, Aman; Bablani, Deepika

2014-01-01

Mucocele forms because of salivary gland mucous extravasation or retention and is usually related to trauma in the area of the lower lips. Salivary duct cyst, however, is a type of mucous retention cyst which is almost never located on the lower lip. The aim of this paper is to report this extremely rare salivary duct cyst present on the lower lip and to critically review the literature to build important concepts that would help clinicians in the diagnosis and treatment of this pathology. PMID:25364168

Salivary duct cyst on lower lip: A rare entity and literature review.

PubMed

Tandon, Ankita; Sircar, Keya; Chowdhry, Aman; Bablani, Deepika

2014-09-01

Mucocele forms because of salivary gland mucous extravasation or retention and is usually related to trauma in the area of the lower lips. Salivary duct cyst, however, is a type of mucous retention cyst which is almost never located on the lower lip. The aim of this paper is to report this extremely rare salivary duct cyst present on the lower lip and to critically review the literature to build important concepts that would help clinicians in the diagnosis and treatment of this pathology.

Caatinga revisited: ecology and conservation of an important seasonal dry forest.

PubMed

de Albuquerque, Ulysses Paulino; de Lima Araújo, Elcida; El-Deir, Ana Carla Asfora; de Lima, André Luiz Alves; Souto, Antonio; Bezerra, Bruna Martins; Ferraz, Elba Maria Nogueira; Maria Xavier Freire, Eliza; Sampaio, Everardo Valadares de Sá Barreto; Las-Casas, Flor Maria Guedes; de Moura, Geraldo Jorge Barbosa; Pereira, Glauco Alves; de Melo, Joabe Gomes; Alves Ramos, Marcelo; Rodal, Maria Jesus Nogueira; Schiel, Nicola; de Lyra-Neves, Rachel Maria; Alves, Rômulo Romeu Nóbrega; de Azevedo-Júnior, Severino Mendes; Telino Júnior, Wallace Rodrigues; Severi, William

2012-01-01

Besides its extreme climate conditions, the Caatinga (a type of tropical seasonal forest) hosts an impressive faunal and floristic biodiversity. In the last 50 years there has been a considerable increase in the number of studies in the area. Here we aimed to present a review of these studies, focusing on four main fields: vertebrate ecology, plant ecology, human ecology, and ethnobiology. Furthermore, we identify directions for future research. We hope that the present paper will help defining actions and strategies for the conservation of the biological diversity of the Caatinga.

LED-technologies for bright light therapy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kukhta, M. S.; Sidorenko, E. V.; Simutkin, G. G.; Khomushku, O. M.; Glushkov, G. S.

2018-05-01

The significance of the LED-based medical equipment design is caused by the need to make up for the sunshine shortfall in many areas of Russia (Siberia, the Far East, the Extreme North) that will allow reducing dramatically the risk of seasonal affective disorders. The sunshine is the essential synchronizer of the human biological rhythms, the abnormality of which plays an important role in the seasonal affective disorder nature. The study allows proving the object database development able to meet the human demand for a comfortable and high-quality placemaking as well as the health potential recoverability.

Atmospheric deposition of selected chemicals and their effect on nonpoint-source pollution in the Twin Cities Metropolitan Area, Minnesota

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brown, R.G.

1984-01-01

The atmospheric contribution to nonpoint-source-runoff pollution of nitrogen, in the form of nitrite-plus-nitrate, and lead was extremely high contributing as much as 84 percent of the runoff load. In contrast, phosphorus and chloride inputs were low averaging of 6 percent of the total runoff load. Future investigations of nonpoint-source pollution in runoff might include collection of data on atmospheric deposition of nitrite-plus-nitrate nitrogen and lead because of the importance of that source of these constituents in runoff.

Relation of ERTS-1 detected geologic structure to known economic ore deposits

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rich, E. I.

1973-01-01

A preliminary analysis of ERTS-1 imagery of the Northern Coast Ranges and Sacramento Valley, California, has disclosed a potentially important fracture system which may be one of the controlling factors in the location of known mercury deposits in the Coast Ranges and which appears to be associated with some of the oil and gas fields within the Sacramento Valley. Recognition of this fracture system may prove to be an extremely useful exploration tool, hence careful analysis of subsequent ERTS imagery might delineate areas for field evaluation.

Spatial distribution of temperature trends and extremes over Maharashtra and Karnataka States of India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dhorde, Amit G.; Korade, Mahendra S.; Dhorde, Anargha A.

2017-10-01

Earth surface temperatures are changing worldwide together with the changes in the extreme temperatures. The present study investigates trends and variations of monthly maximum and minimum temperatures and their effects on seasonal fluctuations at different climatological stations of Maharashtra and Karnataka states of India. Trend analysis was performed on annual and seasonal mean maximum temperature (TMAX) and mean minimum temperature (TMIN) for the period 1969 to 2006. During the last 38 years, an increase in annual TMAX and TMIN has occurred. At most of the locations, the increase in TMAX was faster than the TMIN, resulting in an increase in diurnal temperature range. At the same time, annual mean temperature (TM) showed a significant increase over the study area. Percentiles were used to identify extreme temperature indices. An increase in occurrence of warm extremes was observed at southern locations, and cold extremes increased over the central and northeastern part of the study area. Occurrences of cold wave conditions have decreased rapidly compared to heat wave conditions.

Gender, Age, Social differences and Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petrucci, Alessandra; Salvini, Silvana

2017-04-01

Climate and society evolve together in a manner that could place already vulnerable areas and their population at a greater risk to extreme weather events. While efforts have been devoted to better planning preparedness and responses to weather extremes, the interactions among various stakeholders who deal with hazard mitigation and response, and the community members, also related with gender and age differences, are not completely understood. In contrast to physical vulnerability, which arises from the potential for environmental extremes to create adverse physiological changes, social vulnerability arises from the potential for these extreme events to cause changes in people's behavior. People can vary in their potential for injury to themselves and their families. They also vary in the potential for destruction of their homes and workplaces, as well as the destruction of the transportation systems and locations for shopping and recreation they use in their daily activities. It is important to recognize that social vulnerability is not randomly distributed either demographically or geographically. In particular, the social vulnerability arising from a lack of psychological resilience, social network integration, economic assets, and political power vary across demographic groups. Some of these components of social vulnerability can be predicted by demographic characteristics such as gender, age, education, income, and ethnicity. This review explores the gender and social difference dimensions of vulnerability and adaptive capacity in relation to climate change.

Peatland Microbial Communities as Indicators of the Extreme Atmospheric Dust Deposition.

PubMed

Fiałkiewicz-Kozieł, B; Smieja-Król, B; Ostrovnaya, T M; Frontasyeva, M; Siemińska, A; Lamentowicz, M

We investigated a peat profile from the Izery Mountains, located within the so-called Black Triangle, the border area of Poland, Czech Republic, and Germany. This peatland suffered from an extreme atmospheric pollution during the last 50 years, which created an exceptional natural experiment to examine the impact of pollution on peatland microbes. Testate amoebae (TA), Centropyxis aerophila and Phryganella acropodia , were distinguished as a proxy of atmospheric pollution caused by extensive brown coal combustion. We recorded a decline of mixotrophic TA and development of agglutinated taxa as a response for the extreme concentration of Al (30 g kg -1 ) and Cu (96 mg kg -1 ) as well as the extreme amount of fly ash particles determined by scanning electron microscopy (SEM) analysis, which were used by TA for shell construction. Titanium (5.9 %), aluminum (4.7 %), and chromium (4.2 %) significantly explained the highest percentage of the variance in TA data. Elements such as Al, Ti, Cr, Ni, and Cu were highly correlated ( r  > 0.7, p  < 0.01) with pseudostome position/body size ratio and pseudostome position. Changes in the community structure, functional diversity, and mechanisms of shell construction were recognized as the indicators of dust pollution. We strengthen the importance of the TA as the bioindicators of the recent atmospheric pollution.

Contributions to Global Augmented Compound Urban Heat Extreme (ACUTE) from Climate Change and the Urban Heat Island Effect

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, K.

2017-12-01

Over the next decades, climate change is projected to increase the intensity and frequency of extreme heat events (EHEs). The severity and periodicity of these hazards are likely to be further compounded by stronger urban heat island (UHI) effects as the world continues to urbanize. However, there is little known about how greenhouse gases (GHG) induced changes in EHE will interact with UHI, and what this will mean for the exposure of urban populations to high temperature. This work aims to fill this knowledge gap by combining a mesoscale meteorological model (Weather Research Forecasting, WRF) with a global urban expansion forecast, to generate spatially explicit projections of compound urban temperature extremes through 2050. These global projections include all the urban areas in developing world. The respective contributions from GHG-induced climate change, the UHI effect, and their interaction vary across different types of urban areas. The resulting compound heat extremes will be more intense and frequent in emerging Asian and African mega urban regions, located in tropical/subtropical climates, due to their unprecedented sizes and the significantly reduced evaporation. Previous studies neglecting the interaction between global climate change and regional UHI effect have underestimated exposure to heat extremes in urban areas.

Variability of extreme climate events in the territory and water area of Russia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Serykh, Ilya; Kostianoy, Andrey

2016-04-01

The Fourth (2007) and Fifth (2014) Assessment Reports on Climate Change of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) state that in the XXI century, climate change will be accompanied by an increase in the frequency, intensity and duration of extreme nature events such as: extreme precipitation and extreme high and low air temperatures. All these will lead to floods, droughts, fires, shallowing of rivers, lakes and water reservoirs, desertification, dust storms, melting of glaciers and permafrost, algal bloom events in the seas, lakes and water reservoirs. In its turn, these events will lead to chemical and biological contamination of water, land and air. These events will result in a deterioration of quality of life, significant financial loss due to damage to the houses, businesses, roads, agriculture, forestry, tourism, and in many cases they end in loss of life. These predictions are confirmed by the results of the studies presented in the RosHydromet First (2008) and Second (2014) Assessment Reports on Climate Change and its Consequences in Russian Federation. Scientists predictions have been repeatedly confirmed in the last 15 years - floods in Novorossiysk (2002), Krymsk and Gelendzhik (2012), the Far East (2013), heat waves in 2010, unusually cold winter (February) of 2012 and unusually warm winter of 2013/2014 in the European territory of Russia. In this regard, analysis and forecasting of extreme climate events associated with climate change in the territory of Russia are an extremely important task. This task is complicated by the fact that modern atmospheric models used by IPCC and RosHydromet badly reproduce and predict the intensity of precipitation. We are analyzing meteorological reanalysis data (NCEP/NCAR, 20th Century Reanalysis, ERA-20C, JRA-55) and satellite data (NASA and AVISO) on air, water and land temperature, rainfall, wind speed and cloud cover, water levels in seas and lakes, index of vegetation over the past 30-60 years (depending on the parameters) in the territory and water area of Russia for determining and mapping of the observed characteristics and trends in the extreme climate events and statistical forecast of these events for the next decades. Determination of a frequency, intensity and duration of extreme climate events in the territory and water area of Russia was done for the first time. It was found that the interannual-scale dynamics of ENSO is actually reflected in the climate features of different regions of the Earth, including the Russian Arctic. In particular, when the boreal winter season coincides with an El Niño event it is indicative by a negative anomaly of near-surface temperature (about -1°C) and a positive anomaly of sea level pressure over the Russian Western Arctic Basin. In contrary, significant (about +1°C) positive anomaly of near-surface temperature along with reduced sea level pressure over the regions of the Barents, White and Kara Seas is typical for any La Niña event (up to 95% significance of Student's t-test). The study was carried out with a support of the Russian Science Foundation Grant (Project N 14-50-00095).

Literature review for Texas Department of Transportation Research Project 0-4695: Guidance for design in areas of extreme bed-load mobility, Edwards Plateau, Texas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Heitmuller, Franklin T.; Asquith, William H.; Fang, Xing; Thompson, David B.; Wang, Keh-Han

2005-01-01

A review of the literature addressing sediment transport in gravel-bed river systems and structures designed to control bed-load mobility is provided as part of Texas Department of Transportation research project 0–4695: Guidance for Design in Areas of Extreme Bed-Load Mobility. The study area comprises the western half of the Edwards Plateau in central Texas. Three primary foci of the literature review are journal articles, edited volumes, and government publications. Major themes within the body of literature include deterministic sediment transport theory and equations, development of methods to measure and analyze fluvial sediment, applications and development of theory in natural channels and flume experiments, and recommendations for river management and structural design. The literature review provides an outline and foundation for the research project to characterize extreme bed-load mobility in rivers and streams across the study area. The literature review also provides a basis upon which potential modifications to low-water stream-crossing design in the study area can be made.

Improving the analysis of social component of flash-floods risk assessment: Application to urban areas of Castilla y León (Spain)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aroca Jimenez, Estefanía; Bodoque del Pozo, Jose Maria; Garcia Martin, Juan Antonio; Diez Herrero, Andres

2016-04-01

The increasing evidence of anthropogenic climate change, the respective intensification of extreme events as well as the increase in human exposure to natural hazards and their vulnerability show that the enhancement of strategies on how to reduce disaster risk and promote adaptation to extreme events is critical to increase resilience. Growing economic losses, high numbers of casualties and the disruption of livelihoods in various places of the world, at an even higher rate than the increase of magnitude and frequency of extreme events, underline that the vulnerability of societies exposed is a key aspect to be considered. Social vulnerability characterizes the predisposition of society to be afflicted by hazards such as floods, being flash floods one of the hazards with the greatest capacity to generate risk. Despite its importance, social vulnerability is often a neglected aspect of traditional risk assessments which mainly focus on economic and structural measures. The aim of this research is to identify those social characteristics which render people vulnerable to flash flood hazards, and consider whether these characteristics are identifiable as local patterns at regional level. The result of this task is a Social Susceptibility Index (SSI) based on susceptibility profiles of the population per township. These profiles are obtained by Hierarchical Segmentation and Latent Class Analysis of demographic and socio-economic information provided by different public organisms. By adding exposure information to SSI, a Social and Infraestructure Flood Vulnerability Index (SIFVI) is created. The methodology proposed here is implemented in the region of Castilla y León (94,226 km2). Townships that are included in this study meet two requirements: i) city centres are affected by an area where potential significant flash-flood risk exists (i.e. villages are crossed by rivers with a longitudinal slope higher than 0.01); ii) city centres are affected by an area with low or exceptional probability of flooding (as provided by Directive 2007/60/EC of 23 october 2007 on the assessment and management of flood risks) acording with the preliminary assessment of flood risk made by water authorities. This analysis of social vulnerability to flash floods means an advance in relation to disaster risk reduction allowing for grouping urban areas with similar resilience. With regard to the above, strengthening of resilience is one of the most important foundation of risk mitigation.

Surface atmospheric extremes (Launch and transportation areas)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1972-01-01

The effects of extreme values of surface and low altitude atmospheric parameters on space vehicle design, tests, and operations are discussed. Atmospheric extremes from the surface to 150 meters for geographic locations of interest to NASA are given. Thermal parameters (temperature and solar radiation), humidity, pressure, and atmospheric electricity (lighting and static) are presented. Weather charts and tables are included.

Extreme groundwater levels caused by extreme weather conditions - the highest ever measured groundwater levels in Middle Germany and their management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reinstorf, F.; Kramer, S.; Koch, T.; Pfützner, B.

2017-12-01

Extreme weather conditions during the years 2009 - 2011 in combination with changes in the regional water management led to maximum groundwater levels in large areas of Germany in 2011. This resulted in extensive water logging, with problems especially in urban areas near rivers, where water logging produced huge problems for buildings and infrastructure. The acute situation still exists in many areas and requires the development of solution concepts. Taken the example of the Elbe-Saale-Region in the Federal State of Saxony-Anhalt, were a pilot research project was carried out, the analytical situation, the development of a management tool and the implementation of a groundwater management concept are shown. The central tool is a coupled water budget - groundwater flow model. In combination with sophisticated multi-scale parameter estimation, a high-resolution groundwater level simulation was carried out. A decision support process with an intensive stakeholder interaction combined with high-resolution simulations enables the development of a management concept for extreme groundwater situations in consideration of sustainable and environmentally sound solutions mainly on the base of passive measures.

Evidences of Significant Nonstationarity in Precipitation Extremes over Urbanizing Areas in India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, J.; H, V.; Karmakar, S.; Ghosh, S.

2014-12-01

The statistical assumption of stationarity in hydrologic extreme time/event series has been relied heavily in frequency analysis. However, due to the analytically perceivable impacts of climate change, urbanization and concomitant land use pattern, assumption of stationarity in hydrologic time series will draw erroneous results, which inturn effects the policy and decision-making. Past studies provided sufficient evidences on changes in the characteristics of Indian monsoon rainfall extremes and further it has been attributed to climate change and urbanization, which indicates the presence of significant nonstationary in the Indian monsoon extremes. Therefore, a comprehensive nonstationary frequency analysis must be conducted all over India to obtain realistic return periods. The present study aims to conduct a nonstationary frequency analysis of the precipitation extremes over India at 1o resolution for a period of 1901-2004, with the implementation of the Generalized Additive Model for Location, Scale and Shape (GAMLSS) parameters. A cluster of 74 GAMLSS models has been developed by considering nonstationary in different combinations of distribution parameters and regression techniques (families of parametric polynomials and nonparametric/smoothing cubic spline), which overcomes the limitations of the previous studies. Further, for identification of urban, urbanizing and rural grids, an population density data has been utilized. The results showed the significant differences in the stationary and nonstationary return periods for the urbanizing grids, when compared to urbanized and rural grids. The results give implications of presence of nonstationary in the precipitation extremes more prominently in urbanizing areas compare to urbanized and rural areas.

Space-time precipitation extremes for urban hydrology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bardossy, A.; Pegram, G. G. S.

2017-12-01

Precipitation extremes are essential for hydrological design. In urban hydrology intensity duration frequency curves (IDFs) are estimated from observation records to design sewer systems. The conventional approaches seldom consider the areal extent of events. If they do so, duration-dependent area reduction factors (ARFs) are applied. In this contribution we investigate the influence of the size of the target urban area on the frequency of occurrence of extremes. We introduce two new concepts, (i) the maximum over an area and (ii) the sub-areal extremes. The properties of these are discussed. The space-time dependence of extremes strongly influences these statistics. The findings of this presentation show that the risk of urban flooding is routinely underestimated. We do this by sampling a long sequence of radar rainfall fields of 1 km resolution, not the usual limited information from gauge records at scattered point locations. The procedure we use is to generate 20 years of plausible 'radar' fields of 5 minute precipitation on a square frame of 128x128 one kilometer pixels and sample them in a regimented way. In this presentation we find that the traditional calculations are underestimating the extremes [by up to 30 % to 50 % depending on size and duration] and we show how we can revise them sensibly. The methodology we devise from simulated radar fields is checked against the records of a dense network of pluviometers covered by a radar in Baden-Württemberg, with a (regrettably) short 4-year record, as proof of concept.

The Highest-Impact Combat Orthopedic and Extremity Injury Articles in the Past 70 Years: A Citation Analysis.

PubMed

Nam, Jason; Do, Woo S; Stinner, Daniel J; Wenke, Joseph C; Orman, Jean A; Kragh, John F

The objective of this study was to identify the most-cited peer-reviewed combat orthopedic and extremity injury articles published during the past 70 years. Orthopedic trauma presents ongoing challenges to both US civilian and military healthcare personnel. Improvements in combat trauma and extremity injury survival and quality of life are the result of advances in orthopedic trauma research. The Web of Science (including Science Citation Index) was searched for the most cited articles related to combat orthopedic trauma, published from 1940 to 2013. The most-cited article was by Owens et al. (Journal of Orthopaedic Trauma, 2007; 137 citations). Between the 1990s and 2000s, there was a 256% increase in the number of highly cited publications. A total of 69% of the articles were on the topics of comorbid vascular trauma (25%), epidemiology (23%), or orthopedic trauma (21%). This study identifies some of the most important contributions to combat orthopedic trauma and research and the areas of greatest scientific interest to the specialty during the past seven decades and highlights key research that has contributed to the evolution of modern combat orthopedic traumatology. 2017.

Increasing synchrony of high temperature and low flow in western North American streams: double trouble for coldwater biota?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Arismendi, Ivan; Safeeq, Mohammad; Johnson, Sherri L.; Dunham, Jason B.; Haggerty, Roy

2013-01-01

Flow and temperature are strongly linked environmental factors driving ecosystem processes in streams. Stream temperature maxima (Tmax_w) and stream flow minima (Qmin) can create periods of stress for aquatic organisms. In mountainous areas, such as western North America, recent shifts toward an earlier spring peak flow and decreases in low flow during summer/fall have been reported. We hypothesized that an earlier peak flow could be shifting the timing of low flow and leading to a decrease in the interval between Tmax_w and Qmin. We also examined if years with extreme low Qmin were associated with years of extreme high Tmax_w. We tested these hypotheses using long32 term data from 22 minimally human-influenced streams for the period 1950-2010. We found trends toward a shorter time lag between Tmax_w and Qmin over time and a strong negative association between their magnitudes. Our findings show that aquatic biota may be increasingly experiencing narrower time windows to recover or adapt between these extreme events of low flow and high temperature. This study highlights the importance of evaluating multiple environmental drivers to better gauge the effects of the recent climate variability in freshwaters.

A Hybrid Monte Carlo importance sampling of rare events in Turbulence and in Turbulent Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Margazoglou, Georgios; Biferale, Luca; Grauer, Rainer; Jansen, Karl; Mesterhazy, David; Rosenow, Tillmann; Tripiccione, Raffaele

2017-11-01

Extreme and rare events is a challenging topic in the field of turbulence. Trying to investigate those instances through the use of traditional numerical tools turns to be a notorious task, as they fail to systematically sample the fluctuations around them. On the other hand, we propose that an importance sampling Monte Carlo method can selectively highlight extreme events in remote areas of the phase space and induce their occurrence. We present a brand new computational approach, based on the path integral formulation of stochastic dynamics, and employ an accelerated Hybrid Monte Carlo (HMC) algorithm for this purpose. Through the paradigm of stochastic one-dimensional Burgers' equation, subjected to a random noise that is white-in-time and power-law correlated in Fourier space, we will prove our concept and benchmark our results with standard CFD methods. Furthermore, we will present our first results of constrained sampling around saddle-point instanton configurations (optimal fluctuations). The research leading to these results has received funding from the EU Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under Grant Agreement No. 642069, and from the EU Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) under ERC Grant Agreement No. 339032.

Air Pollution Episodes Associated with Prescribed Burns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hart, M.; Di Virgilio, G.; Jiang, N.

2017-12-01

Air pollution events associated with wildfires have been associated with extreme health impacts. Prescribed burns are an important tool to reduce the severity of wildfires. However, if undertaken during unfavourable meteorological conditions, they too have the capacity to trigger extreme air pollution events. The Australian state of New South Wales has increased the annual average area treated by prescribed burn activities by 45%, in order to limit wildfire activity. Prescribed burns need to be undertaken during meteorological conditions that allow the fuel load to burn, while still allowing the burn to remain under control. These conditions are similar to those that inhibit atmospheric dispersion, resulting in a fine balance between managing fire risk and managing ambient air pollution. During prescribed burns, the Sydney air shed can experience elevated particulate matter concentrations, especially fine particulates (PM2.5) that occasionally exceed national air quality standards. Using pollutant and meteorological data from sixteen monitoring stations in Sydney we used generalized additive model and CART analyses to profile the meteorological conditions influencing air quality during planned burns. The insights gained from this study will help improve prescribed burn scheduling in order to reduce the pollution risk to the community, while allowing fire agencies to conduct this important work.

The potential of tidal barrages and lagoons to manage future coastal flood risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prime, Thomas; Wolf, Judith; Lyddon, Charlotte; Plater, Andrew; Brown, Jennifer

2017-04-01

In the face of a changing climate, adaptation and mitigation measures are important for coastal communities that seek to maintain their resilience to extreme events. Measures that can be classed as being both adaptation and mitigation can doubly contribute to this. Tide barrages and lagoons have the capacity to generate electricity from the rise and fall of the tide, which over the assets lifetime would contribute significantly towards emission reduction targets and towards a low carbon economy. In addition to electricity generation, the barrage or lagoon can also act as a flood defence during extreme events. This means that coastal communities protected by the barrage will have adaptation benefits to the increasing frequency of storm surges that are a result of sea-level rise. Finally, the barrage also has the potential to act as a transport link with vehicles able to cross, reducing travel times and emissions. The research project RISES-AM focuses on the implications of the higher end climate scenarios, particularly those with a global average warming that is greater than 2 ⁰C with respect to pre-industrial temperatures. RISES-AM aims to produce a better quantification of the impacts and vulnerabilities associated with these high end climate scenarios, and show that adaptation to them is possible at an affordable cost when compared to the increase in risk resulting from them. We investigated the physical and economic impact of extreme flood events of on the Mersey Estuary and surrounding areas. It is thought the Mersey Estuary is likely to be more sensitive to changes in forcing factors in the future than in the past where industrial impacts where the main drivers of change. Extreme events were simulated, for the present day and in 2100 where high impact emission scenarios have resulted in SLR ranging from 0.71 m to 1.80 m depending on the higher end emission scenario selected. If built, the barrage in the Estuary or lagoon in surrounding areas such as the Wirral peninsula will still be present in 2100. It is therefore important to consider long time horizons and the associated climate change. Both business as usual i.e. no adaptation measures and the presence of a tidal barrage or lagoon at two locations were simulated. Three different representative concentration pathways were used to derive an increase of mean sea-level by 2100. To accurately assess the economic impact, a number of different extreme events with varying annual probabilities of occurrence were simulated, these range from 1 in 1 year to 1 in 1000 years probability of exceedance. The flood inundation model LISFLOOD-FP was used to simulate these extreme events and the economic impact resulting from any inundation in the flood plain was calculated and compared alongside the cost and revenue from projected electricity generation to see if the flood protection benefits would contribute positively to a cost benefit analysis, assessing the building of the barrage. This preliminary study shows that tidal lagoons and barrages do have the potential to offer flood risk benefit and become part of integrated strategies to minimise flood risk in coastal areas, but this is site specific and detailed modelling studies are required. The benefits of these structures are dependent on their shape, size and location, and feasibility studies should consider impacts in the near and far-field.

Climatic Extremes and Food Grain Production in India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

A, A.; Mishra, V.

2015-12-01

Climate change is likely to affect food and water security in India. India has witnessed tremendous growth in its food production after the green revolution. However, during the recent decades the food grain yields were significantly affected by the extreme climate and weather events. Air temperature and associated extreme events (number of hot days and hot nights, heat waves) increased significantly during the last 50 years in the majority of India. More remarkably, a substantial increase in mean and extreme temperatures was observed during the winter season in India. On the other hand, India witnessed extreme flood and drought events that have become frequent during the past few decades. Extreme rainfall during the non-monsoon season adversely affected the food grain yields and results in tremendous losses in several parts of the country. Here we evaluate the changes in hydroclimatic extremes and its linkage with the food grain production in India. We use observed food grain yield data for the period of 1980-2012 at district level. We understand the linkages between food grain yield and crop phenology obtained from the high resolution leaf area index and NDVI datasets from satellites. We used long-term observed data of daily precipitation and maximum and minimum temperatures to evaluate changes in the extreme events. We use statistical models to develop relationships between crop yields, mean and extreme temperatures for various crops to understand the sensitivity of these crops towards changing climatic conditions. We find that some of the major crop types and predominant crop growing areas have shown a significant sensitivity towards changes in extreme climatic conditions in India.

A short essay on quantum black holes and underlying noncommutative quantized space-time

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tanaka, Sho

2017-01-01

We emphasize the importance of noncommutative geometry or Lorenz-covariant quantized space-time towards the ultimate theory of quantum gravity and Planck scale physics. We focus our attention on the statistical and substantial understanding of the Bekenstein-Hawking area-entropy law of black holes in terms of the kinematical holographic relation (KHR). KHR manifestly holds in Yang’s quantized space-time as the result of kinematical reduction of spatial degrees of freedom caused by its own nature of noncommutative geometry, and plays an important role in our approach without any recourse to the familiar hypothesis, so-called holographic principle. In the present paper, we find a unified form of KHR applicable to the whole region ranging from macroscopic to microscopic scales in spatial dimension d  =  3. We notice a possibility of nontrivial modification of area-entropy law of black holes which becomes most remarkable in the extremely microscopic system close to Planck scale.

[Determination of total mercury in water samples, sediments and solids in suspension in aquatic systems by cold-vapor atomic absorption spectrophotometry].

PubMed

Vieira, J L; Passarelli, M M

1996-06-01

The use of metallic mercury in the extraction and concentration of gold causes the discarding of tons of this metal in the environment, leading to a considerable increase in the natural levels of the same and the contamination of the surrounding areas. Thus it is extremely important to monitor the presence of this metal in various sectors of the environment with a view aiming to preventing human exposure to excessive concentrations which can result in serious episodes of mercury poisoning. It is also important to estimate the possibility of river sediments becoming potential sources of contamination of human beings. The determination of total mercury was undertaken by using cold vapor atomic absorption spectrometry. River waters, as well as sediments and suspended solids were used as samples for the standardization of the analytical procedure. Later on, this method was tested on samples originating in gold mining areas for the purpose of assessing its validity.

Missing marine protected area (MPA) targets: How the push for quantity over quality undermines sustainability and social justice.

PubMed

De Santo, Elizabeth M

2013-07-30

International targets for marine protected areas (MPAs) and networks of MPAs set by the World Summit on Sustainable Development and United Nations Convention on Biological Diversity failed to meet their 2012 deadline and have been extended to 2020. Whilst targets play an important role in building momentum for conservation, they are also responsible for the recent designation of several extremely large no-take MPAs, which pose significant long-term monitoring and enforcement challenges. This paper critically examines the effectiveness of MPA targets, focusing on the underlying risks to achieving Millennium Development Goals posed by the global push for quantity versus quality of MPAs. The observations outlined in this paper have repercussions for international protected area politics with respect to (1) the science-policy interface in environmental decision-making, and (2) social justice concerns in global biodiversity conservation. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

High-energy supercapacitors based on hierarchical porous carbon with an ultrahigh ion-accessible surface area in ionic liquid electrolytes.

PubMed

Zhong, Hui; Xu, Fei; Li, Zenghui; Fu, Ruowen; Wu, Dingcai

2013-06-07

A very important yet really challenging issue to address is how to greatly increase the energy density of supercapacitors to approach or even exceed those of batteries without sacrificing the power density. Herein we report the fabrication of a new class of ultrahigh surface area hierarchical porous carbon (UHSA-HPC) based on the pore formation and widening of polystyrene-derived HPC by KOH activation, and highlight its superior ability for energy storage in supercapacitors with ionic liquid (IL) as electrolyte. The UHSA-HPC with a surface area of more than 3000 m(2) g(-1) shows an extremely high energy density, i.e., 118 W h kg(-1) at a power density of 100 W kg(-1). This is ascribed to its unique hierarchical nanonetwork structure with a large number of small-sized nanopores for IL storage and an ideal meso-/macroporous network for IL transfer.

Impact of Atmospheric Blocking on South America in Austral Summer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodrigues, Regina; Woollings, Tim

2017-04-01

In this study, we investigate atmospheric blocking over east South America in austral summer for the period of 1979-2014. Our results show that blocking over this area is a consequence of propagating Rossby waves that grow to large amplitudes and eventually break anticyclonically over subtropical South America (SSA). The SSA blocking can prevent the establishment of the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ). As such, years with more blocking days coincide with years with fewer SACZ days and reduced precipitation. Convection mainly over the Indian Ocean associated with Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) phases 1 and 2 can trigger the wave train that leads to SSA blocking whereas convection over the western/central Pacific associated with phases 6 and 7 is more likely to lead to SACZ events. We find that MJO is a key source of long-term variability in SSA blocking frequency. The wave packets associated with SSA blocking and SACZ episodes differ not only in their origin but also in their phase and refraction pattern. The tropopause-based methodology used here is proven to reliably identify events that lead to extremes of surface temperature and precipitation over SSA. Up to 80% of warm surface air temperature extremes occur simultaneously with SSA blocking events. They are also responsible for the warming of western South Atlantic. The frequency of SSA blocking days is highly anti-correlated with the rainfall over southeast Brazil. The worst droughts in this area, during the summers of 1984, 2001 and 2014, are linked to record high numbers of SSA blocking days. The persistence of these events is also important in generating the extreme impacts.

Extreme Rainfall from Hurricane Harvey (2017): Intercomparisons of WRF Simulations and Polarimetric Radar Fields

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, L.; Smith, J. A.; Liu, M.; Baeck, M. L.; Chaney, M. M.; Su, Y.

2017-12-01

Hurricane Harvey made landfall on 25 August 2017 and produced more than a meter of rain during a four-day period over eastern Texas, making it the wettest tropical cyclone on record in the United States. Extreme rainfall from Harvey was predominantly related to the dynamics and structure of outer rain bands. In this study, we provide details of the extreme rainfall produced by Hurricane Harvey. The principal research questions that motivate this study are: (1) what are the key microphysical properties of extreme rainfall from landfalling tropical cyclones and (2) what are the capabilities and deficiencies of existing bulk microphysics parameterizations from the physical models in capturing them. Our analyses are centered on intercomparisons of high-resolution simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and polarimetric radar fields from KHGX (Houston, Texas) WSR-88D. The WRF simulations accurately capture the track and intensity of Hurricane Harvey. Multi-rainband structure and its key evolution features are also well represented in the simulations. Two microphysics parameterizations (WSM6 and WDM6) are tested in this study. Radar reflectivity and differential reflectivity fields simulated by the WRF model are compared with polarimetric radar observations. An important feature for the extreme rainfall from Hurricane Harvey is the sharp boundary of spatial rainfall accumulation along the coast (with torrential rainfall distributed over Houston and its surrounding inland areas). We will examine the role of land-sea contrasts in dictating storm structure and evolution from both WRF simulations and polarimetric radar fields. Implications for improving hurricane rainfall forecasts and estimates will be provided.

Biogeophysical Impacts of Land-Use Change on Climate Extremes in Low-Emission Scenarios: Results From HAPPI-Land

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hirsch, Annette L.; Guillod, Benoit P.; Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Beyerle, Urs; Boysen, Lena R.; Brovkin, Victor; Davin, Edouard L.; Doelman, Jonathan C.; Kim, Hyungjun; Mitchell, Daniel M.; Nitta, Tomoko; Shiogama, Hideo; Sparrow, Sarah; Stehfest, Elke; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Wilson, Simon

2018-03-01

The impacts of land use have been shown to have considerable influence on regional climate. With the recent international commitment to limit global warming to well below 2°C, emission reductions need to be ambitious and could involve major land-use change (LUC). Land-based mitigation efforts to curb emissions growth include increasing terrestrial carbon sequestration through reforestation, or the adoption of bioenergy crops. These activities influence local climate through biogeophysical feedbacks, however, it is uncertain how important they are for a 1.5° climate target. This was the motivation for HAPPI-Land: the half a degree additional warming, prognosis, and projected impacts—land-use scenario experiment. Using four Earth system models, we present the first multimodel results from HAPPI-Land and demonstrate the critical role of land use for understanding the characteristics of regional climate extremes in low-emission scenarios. In particular, our results show that changes in temperature extremes due to LUC are comparable in magnitude to changes arising from half a degree of global warming. We also demonstrate that LUC contributes to more than 20% of the change in temperature extremes for large land areas concentrated over the Northern Hemisphere. However, we also identify sources of uncertainty that influence the multimodel consensus of our results including how LUC is implemented and the corresponding biogeophysical feedbacks that perturb climate. Therefore, our results highlight the urgent need to resolve the challenges in implementing LUC across models to quantify the impacts and consider how LUC contributes to regional changes in extremes associated with sustainable development pathways.

Analysis of long-term changes in extreme climatic indices: a case study of the Mediterranean climate, Marmara Region, Turkey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abbasnia, Mohsen; Toros, Hüseyin

2018-05-01

This study aimed to analyze extreme temperature and precipitation indices at seven stations in the Marmara Region of Turkey for the period 1961-2016. The trend of temperature indices showed that the warm-spell duration and the numbers of summer days, tropical nights, warm nights, and warm days have increased, while the cold-spell duration and number of ice days, cool nights, and cool days have decreased across the Marmara Region. Additionally, the diurnal temperature range has slightly increased at most of the stations. A majority of stations have shown significant warming trends for warm days and warm nights throughout the study area, whereas warm extremes and night-time based temperature indices have shown stronger trends compared to cold extremes and day-time indices. The analysis of precipitation indices has mostly shown increasing trends in consecutive dry days and increasing trends in annual rainfall, rainfall intensity for inland and urban stations, especially for stations in Sariyer and Edirne, which are affected by a fast rate of urbanization. Overall, a large proportion of study stations have experienced an increase in annual precipitation and heavy precipitation events, although there was a low percentage of results that was significant. Therefore, it is expected that the rainfall events will tend to become shorter and more intense, the occurrence of temperature extremes will become more pronounced in favor of hotter events, and there will be an increase in the atmospheric moisture content over the Marmara Region. This provides regional evidence for the importance of ongoing research on climate change.

Biogeophysical Impacts of Land‐Use Change on Climate Extremes in Low‐Emission Scenarios: Results From HAPPI‐Land

PubMed Central

Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Beyerle, Urs; Boysen, Lena R.; Brovkin, Victor; Davin, Edouard L.; Doelman, Jonathan C.; Kim, Hyungjun; Mitchell, Daniel M.; Nitta, Tomoko; Shiogama, Hideo; Sparrow, Sarah; Stehfest, Elke; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Wilson, Simon

2018-01-01

Abstract The impacts of land use have been shown to have considerable influence on regional climate. With the recent international commitment to limit global warming to well below 2°C, emission reductions need to be ambitious and could involve major land‐use change (LUC). Land‐based mitigation efforts to curb emissions growth include increasing terrestrial carbon sequestration through reforestation, or the adoption of bioenergy crops. These activities influence local climate through biogeophysical feedbacks, however, it is uncertain how important they are for a 1.5° climate target. This was the motivation for HAPPI‐Land: the half a degree additional warming, prognosis, and projected impacts—land‐use scenario experiment. Using four Earth system models, we present the first multimodel results from HAPPI‐Land and demonstrate the critical role of land use for understanding the characteristics of regional climate extremes in low‐emission scenarios. In particular, our results show that changes in temperature extremes due to LUC are comparable in magnitude to changes arising from half a degree of global warming. We also demonstrate that LUC contributes to more than 20% of the change in temperature extremes for large land areas concentrated over the Northern Hemisphere. However, we also identify sources of uncertainty that influence the multimodel consensus of our results including how LUC is implemented and the corresponding biogeophysical feedbacks that perturb climate. Therefore, our results highlight the urgent need to resolve the challenges in implementing LUC across models to quantify the impacts and consider how LUC contributes to regional changes in extremes associated with sustainable development pathways.

Cave Conservation Priority Index to Adopt a Rapid Protection Strategy: A Case Study in Brazilian Atlantic Rain Forest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Souza Silva, Marconi; Martins, Rogério Parentoni; Ferreira, Rodrigo Lopes

2015-02-01

Cave environments are characterized by possessing specialized fauna living in high environmental stability with limited food conditions. These fauna are highly vulnerable to impacts, because this condition can frequently be easily altered. Moreover, environmental determinants of the biodiversity patterns of caves remain poorly understood and protected. Therefore, the main goal of this work is to propose a cave conservation priority index (CCPi) for a rapid assessment for troglobiotic and troglophile protection. Furthermore, the troglobiotic diversity, distribution and threats have been mapped in the Brazilian Atlantic forest. To propose the CCPi, the human impacts and richness of troglobiotic and troglophile species of 100 caves were associated. Data related to troglomorphic/troglobiotic fauna from another 200 caves were used to map the troglobiotic diversity and distribution. The CCPi reveals extremely high conservation priority for 15 % of the caves, high for 36 % and average for 46 % of the caves. Fourteen caves with extremely high priorities should have urgent conservation and management actions. The geographical distribution of the 221 known troglobiotic/troglomorphic species allowed us to select 19 karst areas that need conservation actions. Seven areas were considered to have urgent priority for conservation actions. The two richest areas correspond to the "iron quadrangle" with iron ore caves (67 spp.) and the "Açungui limestone group" (56 spp.). Both areas have several caves and are important aquifers. The use of the CCPi can prevent future losses because it helps assessors to select caves with priorities for conservation which should receive emergency attention in relation to protection, management and conservation actions.

Mesoscale high-resolution modeling of extreme wind speeds over western water areas of the Russian Arctic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Platonov, Vladimir S.; Kislov, Alexander V.

2016-11-01

A statistical analysis of extreme weather events over coastal areas of the Russian Arctic based on observational data has revealed many interesting features of wind velocity distributions. It has been shown that the extremes contain data belonging to two different statistical populations. Each of them is reliably described by a Weibull distribution. According to the standard terminology, these sets of extremes are named ‘black swans’ and ‘dragons’. The ‘dragons’ are responsible for most extremes, surpassing the ‘black swans’ by 10 - 30 %. Since the data of the global climate model INM-CM4 do not contain ‘dragons’, the wind speed extremes are investigated on the mesoscale using the COSMO-CLM model. The modelling results reveal no differences between the ‘swans’ and ‘dragons’ situations. It could be associated with the poor sample data used. However, according to many case studies and modeling results we assume that it is caused by a rare superposition of large-scale synoptic factors and many local meso- and microscale factors (surface, coastline configuration, etc.). Further studies of extreme wind speeds in the Arctic, such as ‘black swans’ and ‘dragons’, are necessary to focus on non-hydrostatic high-resolution atmospheric modelling using downscaling techniques.

Modelling deforestation trends in Costa Rica and predicting future forest sustainability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stan, Kayla; Sanchez, Arturo

2017-04-01

Deforestation in Costa Rica has historically varied between the original degradation of primary forest due to land-based industries, followed by secondary regrowth. The regeneration of forests largely came into effect with incentive based programs such as payments for ecosystem services, creation of large protected areas, and a new industry of ecotourism in the country. Given the changes that have occurred within the last 50 years from heavy deforestation pressures to regeneration patterns, and a correlation between deforestation and policy/economic influences, it is important to understand the historical changes that have occurred and how the forests will change in the future, which provides the objective of this study. Future projections are increasingly important given changes in the global socio-political structure, climatic change, and the ever increasing globalization of capitalistic endeavours. The trajectory of the forest in the country can also serve as a way to track both these global pressures on the natural landscape in Costa Rica, and as a proxy for how to manage deforestation in other similar political and geographic areas of the tropics. To determine the historical deforestation trends and link them to the different biogeophysical and socioeconomic variables, forest maps from 1960-2013 were used in the Dinamica Environment for Geoprocessing Objects (Dinamica EGO) to create deforestation models for Costa Rica. Dinamica EGO is a cellular automata model which utilizes Bayesian statistics and expert opinion to replicate both patterns and quantities of land cover change over time with both static and dynamic variables. Additional legislative variables can be used to track how political pressures shift deforestation both spatially and temporally. The historical model was built and analyzed for changes in landscape metrics such as patch size and distance between 1960 and 2013. After validation of the model's ability to replicate patterns, first between 2005 and 2013, and then back to 1997, a future model was created to determine future country wide changes. There was a significant decrease in patch size between 1960 and 2013 in forests and a non-significant decrease is patch size for non-forests. The historical model validated at 85% accuracy within 600m for both the 2005-2013 and 1997-2005 iterations. Future scenario building determines the point in time and area at which the forest area equilibrates, indicating the approximate maximal forest extent under extreme scenarios. None of the scenarios were sufficiently damaging to decrease the forest area below present day levels. The Puntarenas province is the only region which had deforestation in the most extreme scenario. Using the inclusion and exclusion of protected areas within the model, it was determined which of the parks suffers from high pressure of deforestation should there be policy removing protected area status. These parks are predominantly limited to small areas on coastal regions, while the large central parks suffer relatively little pressure from deforestation. This indicates that even under the most extreme scenarios, the secondary forests are likely to remain permanently and continue to regenerate as time progresses.

Assessing risks from drought and heat stress in productive grasslands under present and future climatic conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Calanca, Pierluigi; Mosimann, Eric; Meisser, Marco; Deléglise, Claire

2014-05-01

Grasslands cover the majority of the world's agricultural area, provide the feedstock for animal production, contribute to the economy of farms, and deliver a variety of ecological and societal services. Assessing responses of grassland ecosystems to climate change, in particular climate-related risks, is therefore an important step toward identifying adaptation options necessary to secure grassland functioning and productivity. Of particular concern are risks in relation to drought and extreme temperatures, on the one hand because grasslands are very sensitive to water stress, on the other hand also because global warming is expected to increase the occurrence and intensity of these events in many agricultural areas of the world. In this contribution we review findings of ongoing experimental and modelling activities that aim at examining the implications of climate extremes and climate change for grassland vegetation dynamics and herbage productivity. Data collected at the Jura foot in western Switzerland indicate that water scarcity and associated anomalous temperatures slowed plant development in relation to both the summer drought of 2003 as well as the spring drought of 2011, with decline in annual yields of up to 40%. Further effects of drought found from the analysis of recent field trials explicitly designed to study the effects of different water management regimes are changes in the functional composition and nutritive value of grasslands. Similar responses are disclosed by simulations with a process based grassland ecosystem model that was originally developed for the simulation of mixed grass/clover swards. Simulations driven with historical weather records from the Swiss Plateau suggest that drought and extreme temperature could represent one of the main reasons for the observed yield variability in productive systems. Simulations with climate change scenarios further reveal important changes in ecosystem dynamics for the current century. The results show that herbage growth could basically benefit from increasing temperatures and CO2 concentrations, which promote in particular the development of clover. However, productivity is found to decline in the long term on the background of a projected decrease in summer precipitation. This has implications for future grassland production across Europe and in other agricultural area of the world, and calls for the adoption of adaptation measures.

Leaf Area Index Drives Soil Water Availability and Extreme Drought-Related Mortality under Elevated CO2 in a Temperate Grassland Model System

PubMed Central

Manea, Anthony; Leishman, Michelle R.

2014-01-01

The magnitude and frequency of climatic extremes, such as drought, are predicted to increase under future climate change conditions. However, little is known about how other factors such as CO2 concentration will modify plant community responses to these extreme climatic events, even though such modifications are highly likely. We asked whether the response of grasslands to repeat extreme drought events is modified by elevated CO2, and if so, what are the underlying mechanisms? We grew grassland mesocosms consisting of 10 co-occurring grass species common to the Cumberland Plain Woodland of western Sydney under ambient and elevated CO2 and subjected them to repeated extreme drought treatments. The 10 species included a mix of C3, C4, native and exotic species. We hypothesized that a reduction in the stomatal conductance of the grasses under elevated CO2 would be offset by increases in the leaf area index thus the retention of soil water and the consequent vulnerability of the grasses to extreme drought would not differ between the CO2 treatments. Our results did not support this hypothesis: soil water content was significantly lower in the mesocosms grown under elevated CO2 and extreme drought-related mortality of the grasses was greater. The C4 and native grasses had significantly higher leaf area index under elevated CO2 levels. This offset the reduction in the stomatal conductance of the exotic grasses as well as increased rainfall interception, resulting in reduced soil water content in the elevated CO2 mesocosms. Our results suggest that projected increases in net primary productivity globally of grasslands in a high CO2 world may be limited by reduced soil water availability in the future. PMID:24632832

Leaf area index drives soil water availability and extreme drought-related mortality under elevated CO2 in a temperate grassland model system.

PubMed

Manea, Anthony; Leishman, Michelle R

2014-01-01

The magnitude and frequency of climatic extremes, such as drought, are predicted to increase under future climate change conditions. However, little is known about how other factors such as CO2 concentration will modify plant community responses to these extreme climatic events, even though such modifications are highly likely. We asked whether the response of grasslands to repeat extreme drought events is modified by elevated CO2, and if so, what are the underlying mechanisms? We grew grassland mesocosms consisting of 10 co-occurring grass species common to the Cumberland Plain Woodland of western Sydney under ambient and elevated CO2 and subjected them to repeated extreme drought treatments. The 10 species included a mix of C3, C4, native and exotic species. We hypothesized that a reduction in the stomatal conductance of the grasses under elevated CO2 would be offset by increases in the leaf area index thus the retention of soil water and the consequent vulnerability of the grasses to extreme drought would not differ between the CO2 treatments. Our results did not support this hypothesis: soil water content was significantly lower in the mesocosms grown under elevated CO2 and extreme drought-related mortality of the grasses was greater. The C4 and native grasses had significantly higher leaf area index under elevated CO2 levels. This offset the reduction in the stomatal conductance of the exotic grasses as well as increased rainfall interception, resulting in reduced soil water content in the elevated CO2 mesocosms. Our results suggest that projected increases in net primary productivity globally of grasslands in a high CO2 world may be limited by reduced soil water availability in the future.

Impact of Extreme Climatic Events on the Temperature Regimes in Urban Streams

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parchem, C.; Stewart, I. T.

2016-12-01

Urban streams provide important aquatic and riparian habitat close to population centers, as well as other ecosystem services such as flood protection, storm water drainage and recreational functions. Yet, they are already greatly impacted by human action through water management, channel modifications, destruction of riparian habitat, and pollution. This has potentially rendered them more vulnerable to the climatic extremes projected from climatic changes. From 2012 - 2016, California has experienced to date the most severe drought since the beginning of weather recordings. The combination of the resulting extremely low stream flows exacerbated by low precipitation, high evaporation rates, and greater human demand on water, with high temperature have increased the temperature regime in urban streams. However, the extent to which urban stream temperatures are impacted by extreme climatic conditions and what role stream morphology, stream flow characteristics, and riparian vegetation play, are not sufficiently understood. For this project, we monitored stream temperature, dissolved oxygen, and flow depth along a network of 18 sites in the Los Gatos Creek, Guadalupe River, and Coyote Creek, located in the urban regions of the southern San Francisco Bay Area. Monitoring sites were distributed from stream headwaters to flood plains and represented a variety of stream environments. We examined the variation in stream temperature and dissolved oxygen with extreme air temperature, extremely low flow conditions, riparian shading, and channel morphology. Our results show that during the recent drought, hourly stream temperatures rose up to 34°C during summer heat waves for sites in the lower stream reaches without riparian shading. By contrast, shaded sites with deeper flows, and minimally affected by water management were able to maintain lower temperatures by several degrees. Understanding the conditions driving the response of urban streams to climatic extremes can aid in the protection of aquatic ecosystems under climatic change.

The analysis on the extreme water shortage event in Hangzhou in 1247 AD and its natural and social backgrounds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Haolong

2017-04-01

Yangtze River Delta locating in the north subtropics of China, is famous for numerous rivers and lakes. Because of East Asian monsoon rainfall, flood is always the most primary disaster in this area during the past 2000 years. However, there were also several extreme water shortage events in the history. Example in Hangzhou in 1247 AD was such a typical year in the area. In the paper, the severity of this extreme event and the closely tied spatiotemporal variation of drought in Yangtze River Delta was quantitatively analyzed on the basis of documentary records during Southern Song Dynasty. Furtherly, its natural and social backgrounds was discussed. The result s are summarized as follows: 1) Wells, canals and West Lake of Hangzhou dried up in 1247 AD. The water level of canals was about 1.32-2.64 m lower than that in the normal year. The reduction of storage capacity in West Lake was 21 million stere or so. 2) The droughts in Yangtze River Delta was moderate on the whole, but that in the west of Zhejiang Province was severe. The drought in Hangzhou lasted from the 2nd lunar month to the end of this year. 3) The water shortage event was closely related to the quick going north and farther northern location of summer rain belt. The descending sea-level weakening the tide in Qiantang River, can also reduce the supply of water resources. 4) The quick growth of urban population, excessive aquaculture, and ineffective government supervision played an important social role in the process of this event. In the all, this extreme water shortage event was the result of both natural and social factors. This research is very helpful for the futuristic water resource forecast in Yangtze River Delta, and it also affords us lessons on the risk management and heritage conservation that merit attention. Key Words: Hangzhou, 1247 AD, water shortage, canal, West Lake, natural factors, social factors

Estimating the Effect of Climate Change on Crop Yields and Farmland Values: The Importance of Extreme Temperatures

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This is a presentation titled Estimating the Effect of Climate Change on Crop Yields and Farmland Values: The Importance of Extreme Temperatures that was given for the National Center for Environmental Economics

The implications of high-quality staff break areas for nurses' health, performance, job satisfaction and retention.

PubMed

Nejati, Adeleh; Rodiek, Susan; Shepley, Mardelle

2016-05-01

The main study objective was to explore policy and design factors contributing to nurses' perception of how well-designed staff break areas can play an important beneficial role in relation to their overall job satisfaction, retention, performance and job-related health concerns. Nurses are extremely valuable to the healthcare industry; however, today's nursing profession is challenged by nurses' fatigue and its negative consequences on nurses' health and the quality of patient care they provide. Preliminary interviews were conducted with 10 nurses who worked as consultants in the healthcare design and construction industry. Based on findings, an online survey was developed and distributed to over 10 000 members of the Academy of Medical-Surgical Nurses in the United States. The majority of nurses viewed high-quality break spaces as 'fairly' or 'very' important in terms of their potential to positively influence staff, patient and facility outcomes. Stress, rest breaks and the quality of break areas were some of the significant factors contributing to their perception. The results of this empirical study support the conclusion that improvements in healthcare facility policies regarding staff breaks, as well as the creation of better-designed break areas, can be of significant benefit for nurses and the patients that they serve. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Peak-discharge frequency and potential extreme peak discharge for natural streams in the Brazos River basin, Texas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Raines, Timothy H.

1998-01-01

The potential extreme peak-discharge curves as related to contributing drainage area were estimated for each of the three hydrologic regions from measured extreme peaks of record at 186 sites with streamflow-gaging stations and from measured extreme peaks at 37 sites without streamflow-gaging stations in and near the Brazos River Basin. The potential extreme peak-discharge curves generally are similar for hydrologic regions 1 and 2, and the curve for region 3 consistently is below the curves for regions 1 and 2, which indicates smaller peak discharges.

Long-term enrichment of the stable isotopic composition of stream water due to the release of groundwater recharge from extreme precipitation events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boutt, D. F.

2017-12-01

The isotopic composition of surface and groundwater is impacted by a multitude of hydrologic processes. The long-term response of these systems to hydrologic change is critical for appropriately interpreting isotopic information for streamflow generation, stream-aquifer-coupling, sources of water to wells, and understanding recharge processes. To evaluate the response time of stream-aquifer systems to extreme precipitation events we use a long-term isotope dataset from Western Massachusetts with drainage areas ranging from 0.1 to > 800 km2. The year of 2011 was the wettest calendar year on record and the months of August and September of 2011 were the wettest consecutive two-month period in the 123 year record. Stable isotopic composition of surface waters of catchments ranging from 1 - 1000 km2 show an enrichment due to summertime and Tropical Storm precipitation. Enrichment in potential recharge water is shown to have a significant long-term impact (> 3 hydrologic years) on the isotopic composition of both surface and groundwater. This highlights the importance of groundwater sources of baseflow to streams and the transient storage and release mechanisms of shallow groundwater storage. The length of isotopic recession of stream water are also a strong function of watershed area. It is concluded that the stream water isotopes are consistent with a large pulse of water being stored and released from enriched groundwater emplaced during this period of above-average precipitation. Ultimately the results point to the importance of considering hydrological processes of streamflow generation and their role in hydrologic processes beyond traditional catchment response analysis.

Analysing the climatic extremes of future projections for the MedCORDEX domain using RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenario

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bartholy, Judit; Pongracz, Rita; Pieczka, Ildiko; Szabone Andre, Karolina

2017-04-01

In this study HadGEM2 global climate model outputs were downscaled with RegCM4.3 for the entire MED-44 CORDEX area for the period 1950-2099 using RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenario. The 50-km resolution RegCM-outputs served as input for further downscaling using 10 km as a horizontal resolution for a smaller domain covering Central Europe with special focus on the Carpathian Region. RCP4.5 is a stabilization scenario while RCP8.5 is a rising radiative forcing pathway, therefore, the difference in the simulation outputs helps to quantify the inertia of the climate system, the importance of anthropogenic influence on climate, and shows the evidence for the need of mitigation and adaptation measures. Evidently, higher temperature change corresponds to RCP8.5 compared to RCP4.5. The difference of global and/or regional warming between the two scenario can reach (or even exceed) 2 °C from the second part of the century. Differences in precipitation projections are less straightforward to explain as no direct link exists with warming and radiative forcing, however, the annual distribution of precipitation is projected to change, which may lead to important consequences on society. Our analysis compares the estimated temperature and precipitation changes with special focus on extreme climatic conditions for the following 10 subregions of the MED-44 CORDEX area: Iberian Peninsula, Apennine Peninsula, Balkan Region, Asia Minor, East European Plain, Middle European Plain, Carpathian Basin, Carpathian Mountains, Alps, Western Europe.

Why is the Skill of the Models in Reproducing MJO and its Impacts on the South American Monsoon Important for Subseasonal Prediction?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grimm, A. M.; Silva, T. M.; Hirata, F. E.; Martins, G. P.

2017-12-01

The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) influences significantly daily precipitation and the frequency of extreme events during the summer South American monsoon (SAM) in important regions of the continent. One of the main features of the SAM, the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ), extends from central South America over Southeast Brazil and into the subtropical Atlantic Ocean, affecting very densely populated areas in Southeast Brazil. During the austral summer this region is strongly affected by landslides and floods associated with active SACZ, and the extreme precipitation events receive contribution from synoptic and MJO-related intraseasonal variability. Therefore, it is important to assess the observed impacts of the MJO in its different phases and to evaluate the models' skill in reproducing these phases and their impacts on South America in order to explore extended-range predictability of those events. The MJO cycle is divided into 8 phases according to the temporal evolution of the first two observed modes of multivariate EOF analysis of tropical convection and zonal winds. The teleconnections associated with these impacts are analyzed with simulations and influence functions of a simple model. The results show that two of the MJO phases strongly enhance the extreme events in the SACZ region and indicate the responsible mechanisms, lending these events a higher degree of predictability on subseasonal time-scales. Therefore, in selecting models to build a subseasonal-range forecasting scheme for extreme precipitation events, a necessary step is the assessment of their skill in reproducing MJO and its observed impacts on South America. Well-known models of the S2S Project, among them the ECMWF and CFS-v2 models are analyzed. Their reforecasts for weeks 1, 2, 3, 4 are separately projected onto the first two modes of tropical convection and zonal wind variability in order to identify the predicted MJO phases. Although the skill of one of the models in predicting these phases extends to week 4, generally the useful skill does not extend beyond week 3. The simulation of the impacts over South America, especially on the SACZ, is also assessed for selected models.

Why is the Skill of the Models in Reproducing MJO and its Impacts on the South American Monsoon Important for Subseasonal Prediction?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gross, S.; Wirth, M.; Schäfler, A.; Ewald, F.; Urbanek, B.; Kiemle, C.; Ehret, G.

2016-12-01

The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) influences significantly daily precipitation and the frequency of extreme events during the summer South American monsoon (SAM) in important regions of the continent. One of the main features of the SAM, the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ), extends from central South America over Southeast Brazil and into the subtropical Atlantic Ocean, affecting very densely populated areas in Southeast Brazil. During the austral summer this region is strongly affected by landslides and floods associated with active SACZ, and the extreme precipitation events receive contribution from synoptic and MJO-related intraseasonal variability. Therefore, it is important to assess the observed impacts of the MJO in its different phases and to evaluate the models' skill in reproducing these phases and their impacts on South America in order to explore extended-range predictability of those events. The MJO cycle is divided into 8 phases according to the temporal evolution of the first two observed modes of multivariate EOF analysis of tropical convection and zonal winds. The teleconnections associated with these impacts are analyzed with simulations and influence functions of a simple model. The results show that two of the MJO phases strongly enhance the extreme events in the SACZ region and indicate the responsible mechanisms, lending these events a higher degree of predictability on subseasonal time-scales. Therefore, in selecting models to build a subseasonal-range forecasting scheme for extreme precipitation events, a necessary step is the assessment of their skill in reproducing MJO and its observed impacts on South America. Well-known models of the S2S Project, among them the ECMWF and CFS-v2 models are analyzed. Their reforecasts for weeks 1, 2, 3, 4 are separately projected onto the first two modes of tropical convection and zonal wind variability in order to identify the predicted MJO phases. Although the skill of one of the models in predicting these phases extends to week 4, generally the useful skill does not extend beyond week 3. The simulation of the impacts over South America, especially on the SACZ, is also assessed for selected models.

Spatial variation of statistical properties of extreme water levels along the eastern Baltic Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pindsoo, Katri; Soomere, Tarmo; Rocha, Eugénio

2016-04-01

Most of existing projections of future extreme water levels rely on the use of classic generalised extreme value distributions. The choice to use a particular distribution is often made based on the absolute value of the shape parameter of the Generalise Extreme Value distribution. If this parameter is small, the Gumbel distribution is most appropriate while in the opposite case the Weibull or Frechet distribution could be used. We demonstrate that the alongshore variation in the statistical properties of numerically simulated high water levels along the eastern coast of the Baltic Sea is so large that the use of a single distribution for projections of extreme water levels is highly questionable. The analysis is based on two simulated data sets produced in the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute. The output of the Rossby Centre Ocean model is sampled with a resolution of 6 h and the output of the circulation model NEMO with a resolution of 1 h. As the maxima of water levels of subsequent years may be correlated in the Baltic Sea, we also employ maxima for stormy seasons. We provide a detailed analysis of spatial variation of the parameters of the family of extreme value distributions along an approximately 600 km long coastal section from the north-western shore of Latvia in the Baltic Proper until the eastern Gulf of Finland. The parameters are evaluated using maximum likelihood method and method of moments. The analysis also covers the entire Gulf of Riga. The core parameter of this family of distributions, the shape parameter of the Generalised Extreme Value distribution, exhibits extensive variation in the study area. Its values evaluated using the Hydrognomon software and maximum likelihood method, vary from about -0.1 near the north-western coast of Latvia in the Baltic Proper up to about 0.05 in the eastern Gulf of Finland. This parameter is very close to zero near Tallinn in the western Gulf of Finland. Thus, it is natural that the Gumbel distribution gives adequate projections of extreme water levels for the vicinity of Tallinn. More importantly, this feature indicates that the use of a single distribution for the projections of extreme water levels and their return periods for the entire Baltic Sea coast is inappropriate. The physical reason is the interplay of the complex shape of large subbasins (such as the Gulf of Riga and Gulf of Finland) of the sea and highly anisotropic wind regime. The 'impact' of this anisotropy on the statistics of water level is amplified by the overall anisotropy of the distributions of the frequency of occurrence of high and low water levels. The most important conjecture is that long-term behaviour of water level extremes in different coastal sections of the Baltic Sea may be fundamentally different.

Sediment Dynamics Within Buffer Zone and Sinkhole Splay Areas Under Extreme Soil Disturbance Conditions.

PubMed

Schoonover, Jon E; Crim, Jackie F; Williard, Karl W J; Groninger, John W; Zaczek, James J; Pattumma, Klairoong

2015-09-01

Sedimentation dynamics were assessed in sinkholes within training areas at Ft. Knox Military Installation, a karst landscape subjected to decades of tracked vehicle use and extreme soil disturbance. Sinkholes sampled were sediment-laden and behaved as intermittent ponds. Dendrogeomorphic analyses were conducted using willow trees (Salix spp.) located around the edge of 18 sinkholes to estimate historical sedimentation rates, and buried bottles were installed in 20 sinkholes at the center, outer edge, and at the midpoint between the center and edge to estimate annual sedimentation rates. Sedimentation data were coupled with vegetation characteristics of sinkhole buffers to determine relationships among these variables. The dendrogeomorphic method estimated an average accumulation rate of 1.27 cm year(-1) translating to a sediment loss rate of 46.1 metric ton year(-1) from the training areas. However, sediment export to sinkholes was estimated to be much greater (118.6 metric ton year(-1)) via the bottle method. These data suggest that the latter method provided a more accurate estimate since accumulation was greater in the center of sinkholes compared to the periphery where dendrogeomorphic data were collected. Vegetation data were not tightly correlated with sedimentation rates, suggesting that further research is needed to identify a viable proxy for direct measures of sediment accumulation in this extreme deposition environment. Mitigation activities for the sinkholes at Ft. Knox's tank training area, and other heavily disturbed karst environments where extreme sedimentation exists, should consider focusing on flow path and splay area management.

Extreme Precipitation and Emergency Room Visits for Gastrointestinal Illness in Areas with and without Combined Sewer Systems: An Analysis of Massachusetts Data, 2003-2007.

PubMed

Jagai, Jyotsna S; Li, Quanlin; Wang, Shiliang; Messier, Kyle P; Wade, Timothy J; Hilborn, Elizabeth D

2015-09-01

Combined sewer overflows (CSOs) occur in combined sewer systems when sewage and stormwater runoff are released into water bodies, potentially contaminating water sources. CSOs are often caused by heavy precipitation and are expected to increase with increasing extreme precipitation associated with climate change. The aim of this study was to assess whether the association between heavy rainfall and rate of emergency room (ER) visits for gastrointestinal (GI) illness differed in the presence of CSOs. For the study period 2003-2007, time series of daily rate of ER visits for GI illness and meteorological data were organized for three exposure regions: a) CSOs impacting drinking water sources, b) CSOs impacting recreational waters, c) no CSOs. A distributed lag Poisson regression assessed cumulative effects for an 8-day lag period following heavy (≥ 90th and ≥ 95th percentile) and extreme (≥ 99th percentile) precipitation events, controlling for temperature and long-term time trends. The association between extreme rainfall and rate of ER visits for GI illness differed among regions. Only the region with drinking water exposed to CSOs demonstrated a significant increased cumulative risk for rate (CRR) of ER visits for GI for all ages in the 8-day period following extreme rainfall: CRR: 1.13 (95% CI: 1.00, 1.28) compared with no rainfall. The rate of ER visits for GI illness was associated with extreme precipitation in the area with CSO discharges to a drinking water source. Our findings suggest an increased risk for GI illness among consumers whose drinking water source may be impacted by CSOs after extreme precipitation. Jagai JS, Li Q, Wang S, Messier KP, Wade TJ, Hilborn ED. 2015. Extreme precipitation and emergency room visits for gastrointestinal illness in areas with and without combined sewer systems: an analysis of Massachusetts data, 2003-2007. Environ Health Perspect 123:873-879; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1408971.

Widespread albedo decreasing and induced melting of Himalayan snow and ice in the early 21st century.

PubMed

Ming, Jing; Wang, Yaqiang; Du, Zhencai; Zhang, Tong; Guo, Wanqin; Xiao, Cunde; Xu, Xiaobin; Ding, Minghu; Zhang, Dongqi; Yang, Wen

2015-01-01

The widely distributed glaciers in the greater Himalayan region have generally experienced rapid shrinkage since the 1850s. As invaluable sources of water and because of their scarcity, these glaciers are extremely important. Beginning in the twenty-first century, new methods have been applied to measure the mass budget of these glaciers. Investigations have shown that the albedo is an important parameter that affects the melting of Himalayan glaciers. The surface albedo based on the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data over the Hindu Kush, Karakoram and Himalaya (HKH) glaciers is surveyed in this study for the period 2000-2011. The general albedo trend shows that the glaciers have been darkening since 2000. The most rapid decrease in the surface albedo has occurred in the glacial area above 6000 m, which implies that melting will likely extend to snow accumulation areas. The mass-loss equivalent (MLE) of the HKH glacial area caused by surface shortwave radiation absorption is estimated to be 10.4 Gt yr-1, which may contribute to 1.2% of the global sea level rise on annual average (2003-2009). This work probably presents a first scene depicting the albedo variations over the whole HKH glacial area during the period 2000-2011. Most rapidly decreasing in albedo has been detected in the highest area, which deserves to be especially concerned.

Potential Impacts of Future Climate Change on Regional Air Quality and Public Health over China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hong, C.; Zhang, Q.; Zhang, Y.; He, K.

2017-12-01

Future climate change would affect public health through changing air quality. Climate extremes and poor weather conditions are likely to occur at a higher frequency in China under a changing climate, but the air pollution-related health impacts due to future climate change remain unclear. Here the potential impacts of future climate change on regional air quality and public health over China is projected using a coupling of climate, air quality and epidemiological models. We present the first assessment of China's future air quality in a changing climate under the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) scenario using the dynamical downscaling technique. In RCP4.5 scenario, we estimate that climate change from 2006-2010 to 2046-2050 is likely to adversely affect air quality covering more than 86% of population and 55% of land area in China, causing an average increase of 3% in O3 and PM2.5 concentrations, which are found to be associated with the warmer climate and the more stable atmosphere. Our estimate of air pollution-related mortality due to climate change in 2050 is 26,000 people per year in China. Of which, the PM2.5-related mortality is 18,700 people per year, and the O3-related mortality is 7,300 people per year. The climate-induced air pollution and health impacts vary spatially. The climate impacts are even more pronounced on the urban areas where is densely populated and polluted. 90% of the health loss is concentrated in 20% of land areas in China. We use a simple statistical analysis method to quantify the contributions of climate extremes and find more intense climate extremes play an important role in climate-induced air pollution-related health impacts. Our results indicate that global climate change will likely alter the level of pollutant management required to meet future air quality targets as well as the efforts to protect public health in China.

Etiology and body area of injuries in young female dancers presenting to sports medicine clinic: A comparison by age group.

PubMed

Stracciolini, Andrea; Yin, Amy X; Sugimoto, Dai

2015-11-01

Improving knowledge regarding injuries sustained by pediatric dancers is important in order to better understand injury risk. The aim of this study is to analyze dance injury etiology and body area by age in a cohort of young female dancers presenting to a pediatric sports/dance medicine clinic. The cross-sectional epidemiological study of a 5% probability sample of dancers evaluated between 1/1/2000 and 12/31/2009 with a musculoskeletal injury requiring physician evaluation. A total of 2,133 charts were reviewed from which 171 female dancers 8-17 years old (mean age 14.7 years) were identified. Data were stratified by age, < 12 years and ≥ 12 years, and analyzed based on injury body area, type, and etiology. Fisher's exact test was used to determine statistical significance. Injuries sustained by dancers in the younger age category (< 12 years) were largely to the foot-ankle/lower leg/knee (93.3%) versus thigh-hip/spine/upper extremity (6.7%). In comparison, dancers in the older age group (≥ 12 years) had a large proportion of injuries to the foot-ankle/lower leg/knee (67.3%) as well, but had a notably larger fraction of injuries to the thigh-hip/spine/upper extremity (32.7%; p = 0.04). Approximately two-thirds of the injuries sustained in the younger age group (< 12 years) were classified as bony. In comparison, injuries in the older age group (≥ 12 years) were roughly half bony and half soft tissue (51.3% and 48.7%, respectively; p = 0.29). Most injuries were overuse in etiology for both younger and older age groups (86.7% and 82.1%, respectively; p = 1.00). Through puberty, there was a decline in the injuries to the foot-ankle/lower leg/knee. Conversely, there was an increase in the thigh/hip-pelvis/spine/upper extremity injuries through growth. Injuries to young female dancers in this study cohort were mostly categorized as overuse in etiology, and differed by the age group and the body area. Increased information regarding dance injuries can help guide future injury prevention efforts.

Change of niche in guanaco (Lama guanicoe): the effects of climate change on habitat suitability and lineage conservatism in Chile.

PubMed

Castillo, Andrea G; Alò, Dominique; González, Benito A; Samaniego, Horacio

2018-01-01

The main goal of this contribution was to define the ecological niche of the guanaco ( Lama guanicoe ), to describe potential distributional changes, and to assess the relative importance of niche conservatism and divergence processes between the two lineages described for the species ( L.g. cacsilensis and L.g. guanicoe ). We used maximum entropy to model lineage's climate niche from 3,321 locations throughout continental Chile, and developed future niche models under climate change for two extreme greenhouse gas emission scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). We evaluated changes of the environmental niche and future distribution of the largest mammal in the Southern Cone of South America. Evaluation of niche conservatism and divergence were based on identity and background similarity tests. We show that: (a) the current geographic distribution of lineages is associated with different climatic requirements that are related to the geographic areas where these lineages are located; (b) future distribution models predict a decrease in the distribution surface under both scenarios; (c) a 3% decrease of areal protection is expected if the current distribution of protected areas is maintained, and this is expected to occur at the expense of a large reduction of high quality habitats under the best scenario; (d) current and future distribution ranges of guanaco mostly adhere to phylogenetic niche divergence hypotheses between lineages. Associating environmental variables with species ecological niche seems to be an important aspect of unveiling the particularities of, both evolutionary patterns and ecological features that species face in a changing environment. We report specific descriptions of how these patterns may play out under the most extreme climate change predictions and provide a grim outlook of the future potential distribution of guanaco in Chile. From an ecological perspective, while a slightly smaller distribution area is expected, this may come with an important reduction of available quality habitats. From the evolutionary perspective, we describe the limitations of this taxon as it experiences forces imposed by climate change dynamics.

Change of niche in guanaco (Lama guanicoe): the effects of climate change on habitat suitability and lineage conservatism in Chile

PubMed Central

Castillo, Andrea G.; González, Benito A.

2018-01-01

Background The main goal of this contribution was to define the ecological niche of the guanaco (Lama guanicoe), to describe potential distributional changes, and to assess the relative importance of niche conservatism and divergence processes between the two lineages described for the species (L.g. cacsilensis and L.g. guanicoe). Methods We used maximum entropy to model lineage’s climate niche from 3,321 locations throughout continental Chile, and developed future niche models under climate change for two extreme greenhouse gas emission scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). We evaluated changes of the environmental niche and future distribution of the largest mammal in the Southern Cone of South America. Evaluation of niche conservatism and divergence were based on identity and background similarity tests. Results We show that: (a) the current geographic distribution of lineages is associated with different climatic requirements that are related to the geographic areas where these lineages are located; (b) future distribution models predict a decrease in the distribution surface under both scenarios; (c) a 3% decrease of areal protection is expected if the current distribution of protected areas is maintained, and this is expected to occur at the expense of a large reduction of high quality habitats under the best scenario; (d) current and future distribution ranges of guanaco mostly adhere to phylogenetic niche divergence hypotheses between lineages. Discussion Associating environmental variables with species ecological niche seems to be an important aspect of unveiling the particularities of, both evolutionary patterns and ecological features that species face in a changing environment. We report specific descriptions of how these patterns may play out under the most extreme climate change predictions and provide a grim outlook of the future potential distribution of guanaco in Chile. From an ecological perspective, while a slightly smaller distribution area is expected, this may come with an important reduction of available quality habitats. From the evolutionary perspective, we describe the limitations of this taxon as it experiences forces imposed by climate change dynamics. PMID:29868293

Changing Pattern of Indian Monsoon Extremes: Global and Local Factors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghosh, Subimal; Shastri, Hiteshri; Pathak, Amey; Paul, Supantha

2017-04-01

Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) extremes have remained a major topic of discussion in the field of global change and hydro-climatology over the last decade. This attributes to multiple conclusions on changing pattern of extremes along with poor understanding of multiple processes at global and local scales associated with monsoon extremes. At a spatially aggregate scale, when number of extremes in the grids are summed over, a statistically significant increasing trend is observed for both Central India (Goswami et al., 2006) and all India (Rajeevan et al., 2008). However, such a result over Central India does not satisfy flied significance test of increase and no decrease (Krishnamurthy et al., 2009). Statistically rigorous extreme value analysis that deals with the tail of the distribution reveals a spatially non-uniform trend of extremes over India (Ghosh et al., 2012). This results into statistically significant increasing trend of spatial variability. Such an increase of spatial variability points to the importance of local factors such as deforestation and urbanization. We hypothesize that increase of spatial average of extremes is associated with the increase of events occurring over large region, while increase in spatial variability attributes to local factors. A Lagrangian approach based dynamic recycling model reveals that the major contributor of moisture to wide spread extremes is Western Indian Ocean, while land surface also contributes around 25-30% of moisture during the extremes in Central India. We further test the impacts of local urbanization on extremes and find the impacts are more visible over West central, Southern and North East India. Regional atmospheric simulations coupled with Urban Canopy Model (UCM) shows that urbanization intensifies extremes in city areas, but not uniformly all over the city. The intensification occurs over specific pockets of the urban region, resulting an increase in spatial variability even within the city. This also points to the need of setting up multiple weather stations over the city at a finer resolution for better understanding of urban extremes. We conclude that the conventional method of considering large scale factors is not sufficient for analysing the monsoon extremes and characterization of the same needs a blending of both global and local factors. Ghosh, S., Das, D., Kao, S-C. & Ganguly, A. R. Lack of uniform trends but increasing spatial variability in observed Indian rainfall extremes. Nature Clim. Change 2, 86-91 (2012) Goswami, B. N., Venugopal, V., Sengupta, D., Madhusoodanan, M. S. & Xavier, P. K. Increasing trend of extreme rain events over India in a warming environment. Science 314, 1442-1445 (2006). Krishnamurthy, C. K. B., Lall, U. & Kwon, H-H. Changing frequency and intensity of rainfall extremes over India from 1951 to 2003. J. Clim. 22, 4737-4746 (2009). Rajeevan, M., Bhate, J. & Jaswal, A. K. Analysis of variability and trends of extreme rainfall events over India using 104 years of gridded daily rainfall data. Geophys. Res. Lett. 35, L18707 (2008).

Coastal risk forecast system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sabino, André; Poseiro, Pedro; Rodrigues, Armanda; Reis, Maria Teresa; Fortes, Conceição J.; Reis, Rui; Araújo, João

2018-03-01

The run-up and overtopping by sea waves are two of the main processes that threaten coastal structures, leading to flooding, destruction of both property and the environment, and harm to people. To build early warning systems, the consequences and associated risks in the affected areas must be evaluated. It is also important to understand how these two types of spatial information integrate with sensor data sources and the risk assessment methodology. This paper describes the relationship between consequences and risk maps, their role in risk management and how the HIDRALERTA system integrates both aspects in its risk methodology. It describes a case study for Praia da Vitória Port, Terceira Island, Azores, Portugal, showing that the main innovations in this system are twofold: it represents the overtopping flow and consequent flooding, which are critical for coastal and port areas protected by maritime structures, and it works also as a risk assessment tool, extremely important for long-term planning and decision-making. Moreover, the implementation of the system considers possible known variability issues, enabling changes in its behaviour as needs arise. This system has the potential to become a useful tool for the management of coastal and port areas, due to its capacity to effectively issue warnings and assess risks.

Coastal risk forecast system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sabino, André; Poseiro, Pedro; Rodrigues, Armanda; Reis, Maria Teresa; Fortes, Conceição J.; Reis, Rui; Araújo, João

2018-04-01

The run-up and overtopping by sea waves are two of the main processes that threaten coastal structures, leading to flooding, destruction of both property and the environment, and harm to people. To build early warning systems, the consequences and associated risks in the affected areas must be evaluated. It is also important to understand how these two types of spatial information integrate with sensor data sources and the risk assessment methodology. This paper describes the relationship between consequences and risk maps, their role in risk management and how the HIDRALERTA system integrates both aspects in its risk methodology. It describes a case study for Praia da Vitória Port, Terceira Island, Azores, Portugal, showing that the main innovations in this system are twofold: it represents the overtopping flow and consequent flooding, which are critical for coastal and port areas protected by maritime structures, and it works also as a risk assessment tool, extremely important for long-term planning and decision-making. Moreover, the implementation of the system considers possible known variability issues, enabling changes in its behaviour as needs arise. This system has the potential to become a useful tool for the management of coastal and port areas, due to its capacity to effectively issue warnings and assess risks.

Space Weather Research: Indian perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhardwaj, Anil; Pant, Tarun Kumar; Choudhary, R. K.; Nandy, Dibyendu; Manoharan, P. K.

2016-12-01

Space weather, just like its meteorological counterpart, is of extreme importance when it comes to its impact on terrestrial near- and far-space environments. In recent years, space weather research has acquired an important place as a thrust area of research having implications both in space science and technology. The presence of satellites and other technological systems from different nations in near-Earth space necessitates that one must have a comprehensive understanding not only of the origin and evolution of space weather processes but also of their impact on technology and terrestrial upper atmosphere. To address this aspect, nations across the globe including India have been investing in research concerning Sun, solar processes and their evolution from solar interior into the interplanetary space, and their impact on Earth's magnetosphere-ionosphere-thermosphere system. In India, over the years, a substantial amount of work has been done in each of these areas by various agencies/institutions. In fact, India has been, and continues to be, at the forefront of space research and has ambitious future programs concerning these areas encompassing space weather. This review aims at providing a glimpse of this Indian perspective on space weather research to the reader and presenting an up-to-date status of the same.

Morphometric partitioning of the respiratory surface area and diffusion capacity of the gills and swim bladder in juvenile Amazonian air-breathing fish, Arapaima gigas.

PubMed

Fernandes, Marisa Narciso; da Cruz, André Luis; da Costa, Oscar Tadeu Ferreira; Perry, Steven Franklin

2012-09-01

The gills and the respiratory swim bladders of juvenile specimens (mean body mass 100g) of the basal teleost Arapaima gigas (Cuvier 1829) were evaluated using stereological methods in vertical sections. The surface areas, harmonic mean barrier thicknesses and morphometric diffusing capacities for oxygen and carbon dioxide were estimated. The average respiratory surface area of the swim bladder (2173 cm² kg⁻¹) exceeded that of the gills (780 cm² kg⁻¹) by a factor of 2.79. Due to the extremely thin air-blood barrier in the swim bladder (harmonic mean 0.22 μm) and the much thicker water-blood barrier of the gills (9.61 μm), the morphometric diffusing capacity for oxygen and carbon dioxide was 88 times greater in the swim bladder than in the gills. These data clearly indicate the importance of the swim bladder, even in juvenile A. gigas that still engage in aquatic respiration. Because of the much greater diffusion constant of CO₂ than O₂ in water, the gills also remain important for CO₂ release. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The contribution of urbanization to recent extreme heat events and white roof mitigation strategy in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei metropolitan area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Mingna

2015-04-01

The UHI effect can aggravate summertime heat waves and strongly influence human comfort and health, leading to greater mortality in metropolitan areas. Many geo-engineering technological strategies have been proposed to mitigate climate warming, and for the UHI, increasing the albedo of artificial urban surfaces (rooftops or pavements) has been considered a lucrative and effective way to cool cities. The objective of this work is to quantify the contribution of urbanization to recent extreme heat events of the early 21st century in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei metropolitan area, using the mesoscale WRF model coupled with a single urban canopy model and actual urban land cover datasets. This work also investigates a simulation of the regional effects of white roof technology by increasing the albedo of urban areas in the urban canopy model to mitigate the urban heat island, especially in extreme heat waves. The results show that urban land use characteristics that have evolved over the past ~20 years in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei metropolitan area have had a significant impact on the extreme temperatures occurring during extreme heat events. Simulations show that new urban development has caused an intensification and expansion of the areas experiencing extreme heat waves with an average increase in temperature of approximately 0.60°C. This change is most obvious at night with an increase up to 0.95°C, for which the total contribution of anthropogenic heat is 34%. We also simulate the effects of geo-engineering strategies increasing the albedo of urban roofs. White roofs reflect a large fraction of incoming sunlight in the daytime, which reduced the net radiation so that the roof surface keep at a lower temperature than regular solar-absorptive roofs. Urban net radiation decreases by approximately 200 W m-2 at local noon because of high solar reflectance of white roofs, which cools the daytime urban temperature afer sunrise, with the largest decrease of almost -0.80°C at local noon. Moreover, the nighttime temperature also shows slightly cooler, approximately 0.2°C, because there is still considerable heat which is stored in the daytime released from urban surfaces at night. The results also suggest that increasing the albedo of urban roofs can reduce the urban mean temperature by approximately 0.51°C during summer extreme heat events. In urban areas, white roofs can counter 80% of the heat wave results from urban sprawl during the last 20 years. These results suggest that increasing the albedo of roofs in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei metropolitan area is an effective way of countering some hazards of heat waves. Using a regional climate model, we proposed that white roofs may be an effective strategy to complement urban heat wave mitigation efforts as a way of further slowing the rate of global temperature increase in response to continued greenhouse gas emissions.

Hot spots of multivariate extreme anomalies in Earth observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Flach, M.; Sippel, S.; Bodesheim, P.; Brenning, A.; Denzler, J.; Gans, F.; Guanche, Y.; Reichstein, M.; Rodner, E.; Mahecha, M. D.

2016-12-01

Anomalies in Earth observations might indicate data quality issues, extremes or the change of underlying processes within a highly multivariate system. Thus, considering the multivariate constellation of variables for extreme detection yields crucial additional information over conventional univariate approaches. We highlight areas in which multivariate extreme anomalies are more likely to occur, i.e. hot spots of extremes in global atmospheric Earth observations that impact the Biosphere. In addition, we present the year of the most unusual multivariate extreme between 2001 and 2013 and show that these coincide with well known high impact extremes. Technically speaking, we account for multivariate extremes by using three sophisticated algorithms adapted from computer science applications. Namely an ensemble of the k-nearest neighbours mean distance, a kernel density estimation and an approach based on recurrences is used. However, the impact of atmosphere extremes on the Biosphere might largely depend on what is considered to be normal, i.e. the shape of the mean seasonal cycle and its inter-annual variability. We identify regions with similar mean seasonality by means of dimensionality reduction in order to estimate in each region both the `normal' variance and robust thresholds for detecting the extremes. In addition, we account for challenges like heteroscedasticity in Northern latitudes. Apart from hot spot areas, those anomalies in the atmosphere time series are of particular interest, which can only be detected by a multivariate approach but not by a simple univariate approach. Such an anomalous constellation of atmosphere variables is of interest if it impacts the Biosphere. The multivariate constellation of such an anomalous part of a time series is shown in one case study indicating that multivariate anomaly detection can provide novel insights into Earth observations.

Probability modeling of high flow extremes in Yingluoxia watershed, the upper reaches of Heihe River basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Zhanling; Li, Zhanjie; Li, Chengcheng

2014-05-01

Probability modeling of hydrological extremes is one of the major research areas in hydrological science. Most basins in humid and semi-humid south and east of China are concerned for probability modeling analysis of high flow extremes. While, for the inland river basin which occupies about 35% of the country area, there is a limited presence of such studies partly due to the limited data availability and a relatively low mean annual flow. The objective of this study is to carry out probability modeling of high flow extremes in the upper reach of Heihe River basin, the second largest inland river basin in China, by using the peak over threshold (POT) method and Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD), in which the selection of threshold and inherent assumptions for POT series are elaborated in details. For comparison, other widely used probability distributions including generalized extreme value (GEV), Lognormal, Log-logistic and Gamma are employed as well. Maximum likelihood estimate is used for parameter estimations. Daily flow data at Yingluoxia station from 1978 to 2008 are used. Results show that, synthesizing the approaches of mean excess plot, stability features of model parameters, return level plot and the inherent independence assumption of POT series, an optimum threshold of 340m3/s is finally determined for high flow extremes in Yingluoxia watershed. The resulting POT series is proved to be stationary and independent based on Mann-Kendall test, Pettitt test and autocorrelation test. In terms of Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, Anderson-Darling test and several graphical diagnostics such as quantile and cumulative density function plots, GPD provides the best fit to high flow extremes in the study area. The estimated high flows for long return periods demonstrate that, as the return period increasing, the return level estimates are probably more uncertain. The frequency of high flow extremes exhibits a very slight but not significant decreasing trend from 1978 to 2008, while the intensity of such flow extremes is comparatively increasing especially for the higher return levels.

The relative importance among anthropogenic forcings of land use/land cover change in affecting temperature extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Liang; Dirmeyer, Paul A.

2018-05-01

Land use/land cover change (LULCC) exerts significant influence on regional climate extremes, but its relative importance compared with other anthropogenic climate forcings has not been thoroughly investigated. This study compares land use forcing with other forcing agents in explaining the simulated historical temperature extreme changes since preindustrial times in the CESM-Last Millennium Ensemble (LME) project. CESM-LME suggests that the land use forcing has caused an overall cooling in both warm and cold extremes, and has significantly decreased diurnal temperature range (DTR). Due to the competing effects of the GHG and aerosol forcings, the spatial pattern of changes in 1850-2005 climatology of temperature extremes in CESM-LME can be largely explained by the land use forcing, especially for hot extremes and DTR. The dominance of land use forcing is particularly evident over Europe, eastern China, and the central and eastern US. Temporally, the land-use cooling is relatively stable throughout the historical period, while the warming of temperature extremes is mainly influenced by the enhanced GHG forcing, which has gradually dampened the local dominance of the land use effects. Results from the suite of CMIP5 experiments partially agree with the local dominance of the land use forcing in CESM-LME, but inter-model discrepancies exist in the distribution and sign of the LULCC-induced temperature changes. Our results underline the overall importance of LULCC in historical temperature extreme changes, implying land use forcing should be highlighted in future climate projections.

Image processing for IMRT QA dosimetry.

PubMed

Zaini, Mehran R; Forest, Gary J; Loshek, David D

2005-01-01

We have automated the determination of the placement location of the dosimetry ion chamber within intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) fields, as part of streamlining the entire IMRT quality assurance process. This paper describes the mathematical image-processing techniques to arrive at the appropriate measurement locations within the planar dose maps of the IMRT fields. A specific spot within the found region is identified based on its flatness, radiation magnitude, location, area, and the avoidance of the interleaf spaces. The techniques used include applying a Laplacian, dilation, erosion, region identification, and measurement point selection based on three parameters: the size of the erosion operator, the gradient, and the importance of the area of a region versus its magnitude. These three parameters are adjustable by the user. However, the first one requires tweaking in extremely rare occasions, the gradient requires rare adjustments, and the last parameter needs occasional fine-tuning. This algorithm has been tested in over 50 cases. In about 5% of cases, the algorithm does not find a measurement point due to the extremely steep and narrow regions within the fluence maps. In such cases, manual selection of a point is allowed by our code, which is also difficult to ascertain, since the fluence map does not yield itself to an appropriate measurement point selection.

a Novel Methodology for Developing Inundation Maps Under Climate Change Scenarios Using One-Dimensional Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vu, M. T.; Liong, S. Y.; Raghavan, V. S.; Liew, S. C.

2011-07-01

Climate change is expected to cause increases in extreme climatic events such as heavy rainstorms and rising tidal level. Heavy rainstorms are known to be serious causes of flooding problems in big cities. Thus, high density residential and commercial areas along the rivers are facing risks of being flooded. For that reason, inundated area determination is now being considered as one of the most important areas of research focus in flood forecasting. In such a context, this paper presents the development of a floodmap in determining flood-prone areas and its volumes. The areas and volumes of flood are computed by the inundated level using the existing digital elevation model (DEM) of a hypothetical catchment chosen for study. The study focuses on the application of Flood Early Warning System (Delft — FEWS, Deltares), which is designated to work with the SOBEK (Delft) to simulate the extent of stormwater on the ground surface. The results from FEWS consist of time-series of inundation maps in Image file format (PNG) and ASCII format, which are subsequently imported to ArcGIS for further calculations. In addition, FEWS results provide options to export the video clip of water spreading out over the catchment. Consequently, inundated area and volume will be determined by the water level on the ground. Final floodmap is displayed in colors created by ArcGIS. Various flood map results corresponding to climate change scenarios will be displayed in the main part of the paper.

Prioritizing Wetlands for Waterbirds in a Boom and Bust System: Waterbird Refugia and Breeding in the Murray-Darling Basin

PubMed Central

Bino, Gilad; Kingsford, Richard T.; Porter, John

2015-01-01

Dryland rivers have considerable flow variability, producing complex ecosystems, processes, and communities of organisms that vary over space and time. They are also among the more vulnerable of the world’s ecosystems. A key strategy for conservation of dryland rivers is identifying and maintaining key sites for biodiversity conservation, particularly protecting the quantity and quality of flow and flooding regimes. Extreme variability considerably challenges freshwater conservation planning. We systematically prioritised wetlands for waterbirds (simultaneously for 52 species), across about 13.5% of the Murray-Darling Basin (1,061,469 km2), using a 30-year record of systematic aerial surveys of waterbird populations. Nine key wetlands in this area, primarily lakes, floodplains, and swamps, consistently contributed to a representation target (80%) of total abundances of all 52 waterbird species. The long temporal span of our data included dramatic availability (i.e., booms) and scarcity (i.e., busts) of water, providing a unique opportunity to test prioritisation at extremes of variation. These extremes represented periods when waterbirds were breeding or concentrating on refugia, varying wetland prioritisation. In dry years, important wetlands for waterbirds were riverine and lacustrine (12 wetlands) but this changed in wet years to lacustrine and palustrine (8 wetlands). Such variation in ecosystem condition substantially changes the relative importance of individual wetlands for waterbirds during boom and bust phases. Incorporating this variability is necessary for effective conservation of Murray-Darling Basin waterbirds, with considerable generality for other similarly variable systems around the world. PMID:26161652

Marginally trapped surfaces and AdS/CFT

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grado-White, Brianna; Marolf, Donald

2018-02-01

It has been proposed that the areas of marginally trapped or anti-trapped surfaces (also known as leaves of holographic screens) may encode some notion of entropy. To connect this to AdS/CFT, we study the case of marginally trapped surfaces anchored to an AdS boundary. We establish that such boundary-anchored leaves lie between the causal and extremal surfaces defined by the anchor and that they have area bounded below by that of the minimal extremal surface. This suggests that the area of any leaf represents a coarse-grained von Neumann entropy for the associated region of the dual CFT. We further demonstrate that the leading area-divergence of a boundary-anchored marginally trapped surface agrees with that for the associated extremal surface, though subleading divergences generally differ. Finally, we generalize an argument of Bousso and Engelhardt to show that holographic screens with all leaves anchored to the same boundary set have leaf-areas that increase monotonically along the screen, and we describe a construction through which this monotonicity can take the more standard form of requiring entropy to increase with boundary time. This construction is related to what one might call future causal holographic information, which in such cases also provides an upper bound on the area of the associated leaves.

Selection of extreme environmental conditions, albedo coefficient and Earth infrared radiation, for polar summer Long Duration Balloon missions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

González-Llana, Arturo; González-Bárcena, David; Pérez-Grande, Isabel; Sanz-Andrés, Ángel

2018-07-01

The selection of the extreme thermal environmental conditions -albedo coefficient and Earth infrared radiation- for the thermal design of stratospheric balloon missions is usually based on the methodologies applied in space missions. However, the particularities of stratospheric balloon missions, such as the much higher residence time of the balloon payload over a determined area, make necessary an approach centered in the actual environment the balloon is going to find, in terms of geographic area and season of flight. In this sense, this work is focussed on stratospheric balloon missions circumnavigating the North Pole during the summer period. Pairs of albedo and Earth infrared radiation satellite data restricted to this area and season of interest have been treated statistically. Furthermore, the environmental conditions leading to the extreme temperatures of the payload depend in turn on the surface finish, and more particularly on the ratio between the solar absorptance and the infrared emissivity α/ε. A simple but representative thermal model of a balloon and its payload has been set up in order to identify the pairs of albedo coefficient and Earth infrared radiation leading to extreme temperatures for each value of α/ε.

Extreme groundwater levels caused by extreme weather conditions - the highest ever measured groundwater levels in Middle Germany and their management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reinstorf, F.

2016-12-01

Extreme weather conditions during the years 2009 - 2011 in combination with changes in the regional water management and possible impacts of climate change led to maximum groundwater levels in large areas of Germany in 2011. This resulted in extensive water logging, with problems especially in urban areas near rivers, where water logging produced huge problems for buildings and infrastructure. The acute situation still exists in many areas and requires the development of solution concepts. Taken the example of the Elbe-Saale-Region in the Federal State of Saxony-Anhalt, were a pilot research project was carried out, the analytical situation, the development of a management tool and the implementation of a groundwater management concept are shown. The central tool is a coupled water budget - groundwater flow model. In combination with sophisticated multi-scale parameter estimation, a high resolution groundwater level simulation was carried out. A decision support process with a very intensive stakeholder interaction combined with high resolution simulations enables the development of a management concept for extreme groundwater situations in consideration of sustainable and environmentally sound solutions mainly on the base of passive measures.

Extreme groundwater levels caused by extreme weather conditions - the highest ever measured groundwater levels in Middle Germany and their management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reinstorf, Frido; Kramer, Stefanie; Koch, Thomas; Seifert, Sven; Monninkhoff, Bertram; Pfützner, Bernd

2017-04-01

Extreme weather conditions during the years 2009 - 2011 in combination with changes in the regional water management and possible impacts of climate change led to maximum groundwater levels in large areas of Germany in 2011. This resulted in extensive water logging, with problems especially in urban areas near rivers, where water logging produced huge problems for buildings and infrastructure. The acute situation still exists in many areas and requires the development of solution concepts. Taken the example of the Elbe-Saale-Region in the Federal State of Saxony-Anhalt, were a pilot research project was carried out, the analytical situation, the development of a management tool and the implementation of a groundwater management concept are shown. The central tool is a coupled water budget - groundwater flow model. In combination with sophisticated multi-scale parameter estimation, a high resolution groundwater level simulation was carried out. A decision support process with a very intensive stakeholder interaction combined with high resolution simulations enables the development of a management concept for extreme groundwater situations in consideration of sustainable and environmentally sound solutions mainly on the base of passive measures.

Urban climate effects on extreme temperatures in Madison, Wisconsin, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schatz, Jason; Kucharik, Christopher J.

2015-09-01

As climate change increases the frequency and intensity of extreme heat, cities and their urban heat island (UHI) effects are growing, as are the urban populations encountering them. These mutually reinforcing trends present a growing risk for urban populations. However, we have limited understanding of urban climates during extreme temperature episodes, when additional heat from the UHI may be most consequential. We observed a historically hot summer and historically cold winter using an array of up to 150 temperature and relative humidity sensors in and around Madison, Wisconsin, an urban area of population 402 000 surrounded by lakes and a rural landscape of agriculture, forests, wetlands, and grasslands. In the summer of 2012 (third hottest since 1869), Madison’s urban areas experienced up to twice as many hours ⩾32.2 °C (90 °F), mean July TMAX up to 1.8 °C higher, and mean July TMIN up to 5.3 °C higher than rural areas. During a record setting heat wave, dense urban areas spent over four consecutive nights above the National Weather Service nighttime heat stress threshold of 26.7 °C (80 °F), while rural areas fell below 26.7 °C nearly every night. In the winter of 2013-14 (coldest in 35 years), Madison’s most densely built urban areas experienced up to 40% fewer hours ⩽-17.8 °C (0 °F), mean January TMAX up to 1 °C higher, and mean January TMIN up to 3 °C higher than rural areas. Spatially, the UHI tended to be most intense in areas with higher population densities. Temporally, both daytime and nighttime UHIs tended to be slightly more intense during more-extreme heat days compared to average summer days. These results help us understand the climates for which cities must prepare in a warming, urbanizing world.

The family as a determinant of stunting in children living in conditions of extreme poverty: a case-control study.

PubMed

Reyes, Hortensia; Pérez-Cuevas, Ricardo; Sandoval, Araceli; Castillo, Raúl; Santos, José Ignacio; Doubova, Svetlana V; Gutiérrez, Gonzalo

2004-11-30

Malnutrition in children can be a consequence of unfavourable socioeconomic conditions. However, some families maintain adequate nutritional status in their children despite living in poverty. The aim of this study was to ascertain whether family-related factors are determinants of stunting in young Mexican children living in extreme poverty, and whether these factors differ between rural or urban contexts. A case-control study was conducted in one rural and one urban extreme poverty level areas in Mexico. Cases comprised stunted children aged between 6 and 23 months. Controls were well-nourished children. Independent variables were defined in five dimensions: family characteristics; family income; household allocation of resources and family organisation; social networks; and child health care. Information was collected from 108 cases and 139 controls in the rural area and from 198 cases and 211 controls in the urban area. Statistical analysis was carried out separately for each area; unconditional multiple logistic regression analyses were performed to obtain the best explanatory model for stunting. In the rural area, a greater risk of stunting was associated with father's occupation as farmer and the presence of family networks for child care. The greatest protective effect was found in children cared for exclusively by their mothers. In the urban area, risk factors for stunting were father with unstable job, presence of small social networks, low rate of attendance to the Well Child Program activities, breast-feeding longer than six months, and two variables within the family characteristics dimension (longer duration of parents' union and migration from rural to urban area). This study suggests the influence of the family on the nutritional status of children under two years of age living in extreme poverty areas. Factors associated with stunting were different in rural and urban communities.Therefore, developing and implementing health programs to tackle malnutrition should take into account such differences that are consequence of the social, economic, and cultural contexts in which the family lives.

Localized Multi-Model Extremes Metrics for the Fourth National Climate Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thompson, T. R.; Kunkel, K.; Stevens, L. E.; Easterling, D. R.; Biard, J.; Sun, L.

2017-12-01

We have performed localized analysis of scenario-based datasets for the Fourth National Climate Assessment (NCA4). These datasets include CMIP5-based Localized Constructed Analogs (LOCA) downscaled simulations at daily temporal resolution and 1/16th-degree spatial resolution. Over 45 temperature and precipitation extremes metrics have been processed using LOCA data, including threshold, percentile, and degree-days calculations. The localized analysis calculates trends in the temperature and precipitation extremes metrics for relatively small regions such as counties, metropolitan areas, climate zones, administrative areas, or economic zones. For NCA4, we are currently addressing metropolitan areas as defined by U.S. Census Bureau Metropolitan Statistical Areas. Such localized analysis provides essential information for adaptation planning at scales relevant to local planning agencies and businesses. Nearly 30 such regions have been analyzed to date. Each locale is defined by a closed polygon that is used to extract LOCA-based extremes metrics specific to the area. For each metric, single-model data at each LOCA grid location are first averaged over several 30-year historical and future periods. Then, for each metric, the spatial average across the region is calculated using model weights based on both model independence and reproducibility of current climate conditions. The range of single-model results is also captured on the same localized basis, and then combined with the weighted ensemble average for each region and each metric. For example, Boston-area cooling degree days and maximum daily temperature is shown below for RCP8.5 (red) and RCP4.5 (blue) scenarios. We also discuss inter-regional comparison of these metrics, as well as their relevance to risk analysis for adaptation planning.

The limits for life under multiple extremes.

PubMed

Harrison, Jesse P; Gheeraert, Nicolas; Tsigelnitskiy, Dmitry; Cockell, Charles S

2013-04-01

Life on Earth is limited by physical and chemical extremes that define the 'habitable space' within which it operates. Aside from its requirement for liquid water, no definite limits have been established for life under any extreme. Here, we employ growth data published for 67 prokaryotic strains to explore the limitations for microbial life under combined extremes of temperature, pH, salt (NaCl) concentrations, and pressure. Our review reveals a fundamental lack of information on the tolerance of microorganisms to multiple extremes that impedes several areas of science, ranging from environmental and industrial microbiology to the search for extraterrestrial life. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Adsorption--from theory to practice.

PubMed

Dabrowski, A

2001-10-08

Adsorption at various interfaces has concerned scientists since the beginning of this century. This phenomenon underlies a number of extremely important processes of utilitarian significance. The technological, environmental and biological importance of adsorption can never be in doubt. Its practical applications in industry and environmental protection are of paramount importance. The adsorption of substrates is the first stage in many catalytic processes. The methods for separation of mixtures on a laboratory and on an industrial scale are increasingly based on utilising the change in concentration of components at the interface. Moreover, such vital problems as purification of water, sewages, air and soil are involved here too. On the other hand, many areas in which technological innovation has covered adsorption phenomena have been expanded more through art and craft than through science. A basic understanding of the scientific principles is far behind; in part because the study of interfaces requires extremely careful experimentation if meaningful and reproducible results are to be obtained. In recent years, however, considerable effort has been increasingly directed toward closing the gap between theory and practice. Crucial progress in theoretical description of the adsorption has been achieved, mainly through the development of new theoretical approaches formulated on a molecular level, by means of computer simulation methods and owing to new techniques which examine surface layers or interfacial regions. Moreover, during the last 15 years new classes of solid adsorbents have been developed, such as activated carbon fibres and carbon molecular sieves, fullerenes and heterofullerenes, microporous glasses and nanoporous--both carbonaceous and inorganic--materials. Nanostructured solids are very popular in science and technology and have gained extreme interest due to their sorption, catalytic, magnetic, optical and thermal properties. Although the development of adsorption up to the 1918s has been following rather a zig-zag path, this arm of surface science is now generally considered to have become a well-defined branch of physical science representing an intrinsically interdisciplinary area between chemistry, physics, biology and engineering. This review presents in brief the history of adsorption and highlights the progress in theoretical description of the phenomenon under consideration. The paper deals with the above problems critically, showing the development of adsorption, presenting some of the latest important results and giving a source of up-to-date literature on it. Moreover, in this paper the most important aspects are overviewed referring to today's trends and visions in application of adsorption science in industry, environmental protection and in environmental analysis. The relationship between development of adsorption theory and adsorption practice is pointed out. Current understanding and perspectives pertaining to applications of adsorption phenomena on laboratory and on industrial scale as well as environmental protection are discussed and illustrated by means of a few spectacular examples.

Identifying Important Atlantic Areas for the conservation of Balearic shearwaters: Spatial overlap with conservation areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pérez-Roda, Amparo; Delord, Karine; Boué, Amélie; Arcos, José Manuel; García, David; Micol, Thierry; Weimerskirch, Henri; Pinaud, David; Louzao, Maite

2017-07-01

Marine protected areas (MPAs) are considered one of the main tools in both fisheries and conservation management to protect threatened species and their habitats around the globe. However, MPAs are underrepresented in marine environments compared to terrestrial environments. Within this context, we studied the Atlantic non-breeding distribution of the southern population of Balearic shearwaters (Puffinus mauretanicus) breeding in Eivissa during the 2011-2012 period based on global location sensing (GLS) devices. Our objectives were (1) to identify overall Important Atlantic Areas (IAAs) from a southern population, (2) to describe spatio-temporal patterns of oceanographic habitat use, and (3) to assess whether existing conservation areas (Natura 2000 sites and marine Important Bird Areas (IBAs)) cover the main IAAs of Balearic shearwaters. Our results highlighted that the Atlantic staging (from June to October in 2011) dynamic of the southern population was driven by individual segregation at both spatial and temporal scales. Individuals ranged in the North-East Atlantic over four main IAAs (Bay of Biscay: BoB, Western Iberian shelf: WIS, Gulf of Cadiz: GoC, West of Morocco: WoM). While most individuals spent more time on the WIS or in the GoC, a small number of birds visited IAAs at the extremes of their Atlantic distribution range (i.e., BoB and WoM). The chronology of the arrivals to the IAAs showed a latitudinal gradient with northern areas reached earlier during the Atlantic staging. The IAAs coincided with the most productive areas (higher chlorophyll a values) in the NE Atlantic between July and October. The spatial overlap between IAAs and conservation areas was higher for Natura 2000 sites than marine IBAs (areas with and without legal protection, respectively). Concerning the use of these areas, a slightly higher proportion of estimated positions fell within marine IBAs compared to designated Natura 2000 sites, with Spanish and Portuguese conservation areas being the most visited. Our results support the current design of conservation areas in Spain and Portugal regarding the protection of adult breeders of this highly mobile species.

Constraining relationships between rainfall and landsliding with satellite derived rainfall measurements and landslide inventories.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marc, Odin; Malet, Jean-Philippe; Stumpf, Andre; Gosset, Marielle

2017-04-01

In mountainous and hilly regions, landslides are an important source of damage and fatalities. Landsliding correlates with extreme rainfall events and may increase with climate change. Still, how precipitation drives landsliding at regional scales is poorly understood quantitatively in part because constraining simultaneously landsliding and rainfall across large areas is challenging. By combining optical images acquired from satellite observation platforms and rainfall measurements from satellite constellations we are building a database of landslide events caused by with single storm events. We present results from storm-induced landslides from Brazil, Taiwan, Micronesia, Central America, Europe and the USA. We present scaling laws between rainfall metrics derived by satellites (total rainfall, mean intensity, antecedent rainfall, ...) and statistical descriptors of landslide events (total area and volume, size distribution, mean runout, ...). Total rainfall seems to be the most important parameter driving non-linearly the increase in total landslide number, and area and volume. The maximum size of bedrock landslides correlates with the total number of landslides, and thus with total rainfall, within the limits of available topographic relief. In contrast, the power-law scaling exponent of the size distribution, controlling the relative abundance of small and large landslides, appears rather independent of the rainfall metrics (intensity, duration and total rainfall). These scaling laws seem to explain both the intra-storm pattern of landsliding, at the scale of satellite rainfall measurements ( 25kmx25km), and the different impacts observed for various storms. Where possible, we evaluate the limits of standard rainfall products (TRMM, GPM, GSMaP) by comparing them to in-situ data. Then we discuss how slope distribution and other geomorphic factors (lithology, soil presence,...) modulate these scaling laws. Such scaling laws at the basin scale and based only on a-priori information (topography, lithology, …) and rainfall metrics available from meteorological forecast may allow to better anticipate and mitigates landsliding associated with extreme rainfall events.

Combined treatment with chlorhexidine and 0·9% saline in a newborn infant with an infected surgical wound.

PubMed

Tekgündüz, Kadir Şerafettin; Kepenekli, Eda; Demirelli, Yaşar; Caner, İbrahim; Kara, Mustafa

2016-10-01

Newborns are more susceptible to infection; this makes proper wound care extremely important in them. Unfortunately, in spite of successful surgery, patients can die as a result of wound area infections. Herein, we report a case in which a combined therapy of chlorhexidine (a disinfectant) and saline (a cleansing agent used in wound care) was used effectively to treat the wound in a newborn infant with an antibiotic-resistant, Gram-negative, bacteria-related surgical site infection. © 2014 The Authors. International Wound Journal © 2014 Medicalhelplines.com Inc and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Manual ahorro de energia en la industria (Energy conservation manual for industry)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

1983-01-01

This manual gives general guidelines on which to base an energy conservation program, signals situations and opportunities for energy savings in an industrial plant, provides information for easy quantification of energy loss, and signals how to correct deficiencies in certain important aspects such as combustion and insulation. One chapter deals with heat audits, an extremely useful tool for identifying areas on which one should concentrate to achieve energy savings. The manual also describes general heating systems with a view to pointing out ways to increase efficiency and eliminate defects, including steam systems and oil, coal, and firewood combustion.

Caatinga Revisited: Ecology and Conservation of an Important Seasonal Dry Forest

PubMed Central

de Albuquerque, Ulysses Paulino; de Lima Araújo, Elcida; El-Deir, Ana Carla Asfora; de Lima, André Luiz Alves; Souto, Antonio; Bezerra, Bruna Martins; Ferraz, Elba Maria Nogueira; Maria Xavier Freire, Eliza; Sampaio, Everardo Valadares de Sá Barreto; Las-Casas, Flor Maria Guedes; de Moura, Geraldo Jorge Barbosa; Pereira, Glauco Alves; de Melo, Joabe Gomes; Alves Ramos, Marcelo; Rodal, Maria Jesus Nogueira; Schiel, Nicola; de Lyra-Neves, Rachel Maria; Alves, Rômulo Romeu Nóbrega; de Azevedo-Júnior, Severino Mendes; Telino Júnior, Wallace Rodrigues; Severi, William

2012-01-01

Besides its extreme climate conditions, the Caatinga (a type of tropical seasonal forest) hosts an impressive faunal and floristic biodiversity. In the last 50 years there has been a considerable increase in the number of studies in the area. Here we aimed to present a review of these studies, focusing on four main fields: vertebrate ecology, plant ecology, human ecology, and ethnobiology. Furthermore, we identify directions for future research. We hope that the present paper will help defining actions and strategies for the conservation of the biological diversity of the Caatinga. PMID:22919296

Testicular Schistosomiasis Mimicking Malignancy in a Child: A Case Report.

PubMed

Ekenze, Sebastian O; Modekwe, Victor O; Nzegwu, Martin A; Ekpemo, Samuel C; Ezomike, Uchechukwu O

2015-08-01

Schistosomiasis is an important communicable disease in the developing world. However, testicular schistosomiasis is an extremely rare condition. We report a case of testicular schistosomiasis mimicking testicular tumour in a 13 year old who presented with huge unilateral testicular mass. The dilemma encountered in the diagnosis and treatment of this child is presented to highlight the need for high index of suspicion of this pathology in children with testicular mass presenting from schistosomiasis-endemic areas. © The Author [2015]. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Funnel-shaped surface depressions - Indicator or accelerant of rapid glacier disintegration? A case study in the Tyrolean Alps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stocker-Waldhuber, Martin; Fischer, Andrea; Keller, Lorenz; Morche, David; Kuhn, Michael

2017-06-01

Alpine glaciers have been retreating at extreme and historically unprecedented rates. While the general course of regional retreat rates reflects long-term climatic change, individual extreme events are closely related to the geomorphological settings and processes of the specific glacier. Nevertheless, these extreme events also influence the regional means and might be an important feedback mechanism accelerating the response of glaciers to climate change. In 2009, during the recent disintegration of the terminus of Gepatschferner (46°52‧30″N, 10°45‧25″E), a shallow circular depression appeared at the glacier tongue with a decrease of surface ice flow velocity to almost nil. In 2015 the area was ice-free. During a heavy precipitation event in August 2012, a subglacial sediment layer of > 10 m was flushed out, which accelerated the subsidence of the ice surface. The development of this 15 to 30 m deep depression was monitored with a combination of methods in high detail, including direct ablation measurements and a time series of seven high-resolution airborne laser DEMs, plus recordings of ice flow velocity and surface elevation with DGPS. The thickness of ice and sediment layers was measured with vibroseismic soundings in 2012 and 2013. Similar developments were observed at three other glaciers with extreme retreat rates. Our investigation suggests that this mechanism has a major impact on and can be read as an indicator of a nonlinear increased response of glaciers to climate change.

Landscape effects on extremely fragmented populations of a rare solitary bee, Colletes floralis.

PubMed

Davis, Emily S; Murray, Tomás E; Fitzpatrick, Una; Brown, Mark J F; Paxton, Robert J

2010-11-01

Globally, there is concern over the decline of bees, an ecologically important group of pollinating insects. Genetic studies provide insights into population structure that are crucial for conservation management but that would be impossible to obtain by conventional ecological methods. Yet conservation genetic studies of bees have primarily focussed on social species rather than the more species-rich solitary bees. Here, we investigate the population structure of Colletes floralis, a rare and threatened solitary mining bee, in Ireland and Scotland using nine microsatellite loci. Genetic diversity was surprisingly as high in Scottish (Hebridean island) populations at the extreme northwestern edge of the species range as in mainland Irish populations further south. Extremely high genetic differentiation among populations was detected; multilocus F(ST) was up to 0.53, and and D(est) were even higher (maximum: 0.85 and 1.00, respectively). A pattern of isolation by distance was evident for sites separated by land. Water appears to act as a substantial barrier to gene flow yet sites separated by sea did not exhibit isolation by distance. C. floralis populations are extremely isolated and probably not in regional migration-drift equilibrium. GIS-based landscape genetic analysis reveals urban areas as a potential and substantial barrier to gene flow. Our results highlight the need for urgent site-specific management action to halt the decline of this and potentially other rare solitary bees. © 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Sex Diversity Approach of Spiny Lobster (Panulirus spp) to Marine Oil Spill Pollution in Southern Waters of Java

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haryono, F. E. D.; Ambariyanto; Sulistyo, I.

2018-02-01

Coastal of southern Java waters is known as inhabit area of spiny lobster. Accumulation of hydrocarbon frequently occurs at the coastal waters as impact of oil pollution caused by oil leak from supplying ship of crude oil to Cilacap refinery. As shipping channel of oil, presence of oil spills is often detected at coastal areas of Cilacap. It can be indicated by range of sediment in the area which has risk levels in range of low to medium-low. It was, therefore, found that some locations suffered a greater impact on the ecological which giving high risk for marine organism life. Spiny lobster is one of many organism living at sea bed which threatened its life due to the presence of oil. Population of Spiny Lobster has to be protected because it has commercially valuable commodity for producing high nutrition. Considering the matters, it is therefore important to find a method for alleviating the problem. Investigation should be focused on biological aspect of spiny lobster in encountering extreme pollution at the coastal. For that purpose, a field research was conducted from January until July 2015. Using gillnet with 1 inch mesh size, the lobsters were randomly collected from southern Java districts waters. There were 1137 lobsters collected from six districts waters. Furthermore, the sample was morphologically identified and it was found that there were six species in the areas. In all area, P. homarus was found as dominant species, except in Gunung kidul district which was dominated by P. penicillatus. In term of sex diversity, there is statistically difference in number of female and male, each species no significant. Even though environment quality was very worse, there was found existence of ovigerous female in the research area as about 12% of the population. Those facts strongly indicated that the lobsters has a unique adaptation to survive in extremely low quality of environment due to marine oil spill.

Delineation of Spatial Variability in the Temperature-Mortality Relationship on Extremely Hot Days in Greater Vancouver, Canada.

PubMed

Ho, Hung Chak; Knudby, Anders; Walker, Blake Byron; Henderson, Sarah B

2017-01-01

Climate change has increased the frequency and intensity of extremely hot weather. The health risks associated with extemely hot weather are not uniform across affected areas owing to variability in heat exposure and social vulnerability, but these differences are challenging to map with precision. We developed a spatially and temporally stratified case-crossover approach for delineation of areas with higher and lower risks of mortality on extremely hot days and applied this approach in greater Vancouver, Canada. Records of all deaths with an extremely hot day as a case day or a control day were extracted from an administrative vital statistics database spanning the years of 1998-2014. Three heat exposure and 11 social vulnerability variables were assigned at the residential location of each decedent. Conditional logistic regression was used to estimate the odds ratio for a 1°C increase in daily mean temperature at a fixed site with an interaction term for decedents living above and below different values of the spatial variables. The heat exposure and social vulnerability variables with the strongest spatially stratified results were the apparent temperature and the labor nonparticipation rate, respectively. Areas at higher risk had values ≥ 34.4°C for the maximum apparent temperature and ≥ 60% of the population neither employed nor looking for work. These variables were combined in a composite index to quantify their interaction and to enhance visualization of high-risk areas. Our methods provide a data-driven framework for spatial delineation of the temperature--mortality relationship by heat exposure and social vulnerability. The results can be used to map and target the most vulnerable areas for public health intervention. Citation: Ho HC, Knudby A, Walker BB, Henderson SB. 2017. Delineation of spatial variability in the temperature-mortality relationship on extremely hot days in greater Vancouver, Canada. Environ Health Perspect 125:66-75; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/EHP224.

Delineation of Spatial Variability in the Temperature–Mortality Relationship on Extremely Hot Days in Greater Vancouver, Canada

PubMed Central

Ho, Hung Chak; Knudby, Anders; Walker, Blake Byron; Henderson, Sarah B.

2016-01-01

Background: Climate change has increased the frequency and intensity of extremely hot weather. The health risks associated with extemely hot weather are not uniform across affected areas owing to variability in heat exposure and social vulnerability, but these differences are challenging to map with precision. Objectives: We developed a spatially and temporally stratified case-crossover approach for delineation of areas with higher and lower risks of mortality on extremely hot days and applied this approach in greater Vancouver, Canada. Methods: Records of all deaths with an extremely hot day as a case day or a control day were extracted from an administrative vital statistics database spanning the years of 1998–2014. Three heat exposure and 11 social vulnerability variables were assigned at the residential location of each decedent. Conditional logistic regression was used to estimate the odds ratio for a 1°C increase in daily mean temperature at a fixed site with an interaction term for decedents living above and below different values of the spatial variables. Results: The heat exposure and social vulnerability variables with the strongest spatially stratified results were the apparent temperature and the labor nonparticipation rate, respectively. Areas at higher risk had values ≥ 34.4°C for the maximum apparent temperature and ≥ 60% of the population neither employed nor looking for work. These variables were combined in a composite index to quantify their interaction and to enhance visualization of high-risk areas. Conclusions: Our methods provide a data-driven framework for spatial delineation of the temperature-–mortality relationship by heat exposure and social vulnerability. The results can be used to map and target the most vulnerable areas for public health intervention. Citation: Ho HC, Knudby A, Walker BB, Henderson SB. 2017. Delineation of spatial variability in the temperature–mortality relationship on extremely hot days in greater Vancouver, Canada. Environ Health Perspect 125:66–75; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/EHP224 PMID:27346526

Simulating Turbulent Wind Fields for Offshore Turbines in Hurricane-Prone Regions (Poster)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Guo, Y.; Damiani, R.; Musial, W.

Extreme wind load cases are one of the most important external conditions in the design of offshore wind turbines in hurricane prone regions. Furthermore, in these areas, the increase in load with storm return-period is higher than in extra-tropical regions. However, current standards have limited information on the appropriate models to simulate wind loads from hurricanes. This study investigates turbulent wind models for load analysis of offshore wind turbines subjected to hurricane conditions. Suggested extreme wind models in IEC 61400-3 and API/ABS (a widely-used standard in oil and gas industry) are investigated. The present study further examines the wind turbinemore » response subjected to Hurricane wind loads. Three-dimensional wind simulator, TurbSim, is modified to include the API wind model. Wind fields simulated using IEC and API wind models are used for an offshore wind turbine model established in FAST to calculate turbine loads and response.« less

A Framework for Fracture Network Formation in Overpressurised Impermeable Shale: Deformability Versus Diagenesis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alevizos, Sotiris; Poulet, Thomas; Sari, Mustafa; Lesueur, Martin; Regenauer-Lieb, Klaus; Veveakis, Manolis

2017-03-01

Understanding the formation, geometry and fluid connectivity of nominally impermeable unconventional shale gas and oil reservoirs is crucial for safe unlocking of these vast energy resources. We present a recent discovery of volumetric instabilities of ductile materials that may explain why impermeable formations become permeable. Here, we present the fundamental mechanisms, the critical parameters and the applicability of the novel theory to unconventional reservoirs. We show that for a reservoir under compaction, there exist certain ambient and permeability conditions at which diagenetic (fluid-release) reactions may provoke channelling localisation instabilities. These channels are periodically interspersed in the matrix and represent areas where the excess fluid from the reaction is segregated at high velocity. We find that channelling instabilities are favoured from pore collapse features for extremely low-permeability formations and fluid-release diagenetic reactions, therefore providing a natural, periodic network of efficient fluid pathways in an otherwise impermeable matrix (i.e. fractures). Such an outcome is of extreme importance the for exploration and extraction phases of unconventional reservoirs.

The Effects of Extreme Temperature Events on Human Mortality in Europe: Winners and Losers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Merte, S.

2016-12-01

Climate change is a sizable threat to public health. Besides the shift in mean temperatures, there is also a change in the frequency of extreme temperature events. While cold spells become less frequent, heat waves become more common. As either of these can cause human death, the net-effect of climate change in terms of human excess mortality is currently unclear and and will vary depending on local conditions. The ability to estimate this net-effect is key when it comes to designing effective climate change adaptation policies as some areas will be affected earlier and/or stronger than others. This work provides the first large-scale estimate of this net-effect for Europe. Utilizing a novel methodology based on singular systems analysis, climate extreme-driven excess mortality is estimated using national-level health data. The first notable finding of this work is the confirmation that extreme temperature events already pose a major environmental risk: tens of thousands of people die every year in the examined European countries as a result of heat waves and cold spells. The second important result is that it demonstrates the need for climate change mitigation: Assuming moderate climate change, some countries in Northern and Western Europe will benefit from the shift in extreme temperature events — they will experience a net-reduction in excess mortality as a result of a drastically reduced frequency of cold spells. In contrast, assuming severe climate change, there will be a significant increase in excess mortality, in particular across countries in Southern Europe. This means that -if climate adaptation fails- there will be no winners, just losers.

Climate change effects on extreme flows of water supply area in Istanbul: utility of regional climate models and downscaling method.

PubMed

Kara, Fatih; Yucel, Ismail

2015-09-01

This study investigates the climate change impact on the changes of mean and extreme flows under current and future climate conditions in the Omerli Basin of Istanbul, Turkey. The 15 regional climate model output from the EU-ENSEMBLES project and a downscaling method based on local implications from geophysical variables were used for the comparative analyses. Automated calibration algorithm is used to optimize the parameters of Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdel-ning (HBV) model for the study catchment using observed daily temperature and precipitation. The calibrated HBV model was implemented to simulate daily flows using precipitation and temperature data from climate models with and without downscaling method for reference (1960-1990) and scenario (2071-2100) periods. Flood indices were derived from daily flows, and their changes throughout the four seasons and year were evaluated by comparing their values derived from simulations corresponding to the current and future climate. All climate models strongly underestimate precipitation while downscaling improves their underestimation feature particularly for extreme events. Depending on precipitation input from climate models with and without downscaling the HBV also significantly underestimates daily mean and extreme flows through all seasons. However, this underestimation feature is importantly improved for all seasons especially for spring and winter through the use of downscaled inputs. Changes in extreme flows from reference to future increased for the winter and spring and decreased for the fall and summer seasons. These changes were more significant with downscaling inputs. With respect to current time, higher flow magnitudes for given return periods will be experienced in the future and hence, in the planning of the Omerli reservoir, the effective storage and water use should be sustained.

Seasonal precipitation extreme indices in mainland Portugal: trends and variability in the period 1941-2007

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Santo, Fátima E.; Ramos, Alexandre M.; de Lima, M. Isabel P.; Trigo, Ricardo M.

2013-04-01

Changes in the precipitation regimes are expected to be accompanied by variations in the occurrence of extreme events, which in turn could be related to low frequency variability. The impact on the society and environment requires that the regional specificities are understood. For mainland Portugal, this work reports the results of the analysis of trends in selected precipitation indices calculated from daily precipitation data from 57 meteorological stations, recorded in the period 1941-2007; additionally we have also investigated the correlations between these indices and several modes of low frequency variability over the area. We focus on exploring regional differences and seasonal variations in the intensity, frequency and duration of extreme precipitation events. The precipitation indices were assessed at the seasonal scale and calculated at both the station and regional scales. Results sometimes highlight marked changes in seasonal precipitation and show that: i) trends in spring and autumn have opposite signals: statistically significant drying trends in the spring are accompanied by a reduction in precipitation extremes; in autumn, wetting trends are detected for all precipitation indices, although overall they are not significant at the 5% level; ii) there seems to be a tendency for a reduction in the duration of the rainy season; iii) the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is the mode of variability that has the highest influence on precipitation extremes over mainland Portugal, particularly in the winter and autumn, and is one of the most important teleconnection patterns in all seasons. This work was partially supported by FEDER (Fundo Europeu de Desenvolvimento Regional) funds through the COMPETE (Programa Operacional Factores de Competitividade) and by national funds through FCT (Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia, Portugal) through project STORMEx FCOMP-01-0124-FEDER-019524 (PTDC/AAC-CLI/121339/2010).

Delayed and reduced carbon uptake in a subarctic peatland following an extreme winter event

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parmentier, F. J. W.; Rasse, D. P.; Lund, M.; Bjerke, J. W.; Drake, B. G.; Weldon, S.; Tømmervik, H. A.; Hansen, G.

2017-12-01

An increase in the frequency of extreme winter events in the Arctic may lead to more widespread damage to shrub-dominated ecosystems, including peatlands. In principle, such damage should reduce carbon uptake in the following summer, but the resilience of northern ecosystems to extreme winter events remains unclear due to a dearth of flux measurements from affected areas. In this talk, therefore, we report CO2 fluxes measured with eddy covariance from a peatland in northern Norway and show that vegetation productivity was delayed and reduced during the summer of 2014, following an extreme winter event. Strong frost and the absence of a protective snow cover in January of that year - its combined intensity unprecedented in the local climate record - led to severe dieback of the shrub species Calluna vulgaris and Empetrum nigrum. Similar vegetation damage was reported at the time along 1000 km of coastal Norway, indicating the widespread impact of this frost drought event. Consequently, gross primary production (GPP) showed a strong delayed response to temperature, from snowmelt up to the peak of summer, potentially reducing carbon uptake by 15 (0-24) g C m-2 ( 13% of GPP in that period). The delayed response of the vegetation was also exhibited in remotely-sensed NDVI values, with a maximum two weeks later than normal and at the lowest level in more than a decade. Photosynthesis was eventually stimulated by the warm and sunny summer, but ecosystem respiration increased as well - which limited net carbon uptake. This study shows that damage from a single extreme winter event can have a profound impact on ecosystem CO2 uptake, and it highlights the importance of including winter-induced shrub damage in terrestrial ecosystem models to accurately predict vegetation and carbon sequestration trends in the arctic and boreal region.

Extreme Flood Events Over the Past 300 Years Recorded in the Sediments of a Mountain Lake in the Altay Mountains, Northwestern China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, J.; Zhou, J.; Shen, B.; Zeng, H.

2017-12-01

Global climate change has the potential to accelerate the hydrological cycle, which may further enhance the temporal frequency of regional extreme floods. Climatic models predict that intra-annual rainfall variability will intensify, which will shift current rainfall regimes towards more extreme systems with lower precipitation frequencies, longer dry periods, and larger individual precipitation events worldwide. Understanding the temporal variations of extreme floods that occur in response to climate change is essential to anticipate the trends in flood magnitude and frequency in the context of global warming. However, currently available instrumental data are not long enough for capturing the most extreme events, thus the acquisition of long duration datasets for historical floods that extend beyond available instrumental records is clearly an important step in discerning trends in flood frequency and magnitude with respect to climate change. In this study, a reconstruction of paleofloods over the past 300 years was conducted through an analysis of grain sizes from the sediments of Kanas Lake in the Altay Mountains of northwestern China. Grain parameters and frequency distributions both demonstrate that two abrupt environment changes exist within the lake sedimentary sequence. Based on canonical discriminant analysis (CDA) and C-M pattern analysis, two flood events corresponding to ca. 1760 AD and ca. 1890 AD were identified, both of which occurred during warmer and wetter climate conditions according to tree-ring records. These two flood events are also evidenced by lake sedimentary records in the Altay and Tianshan areas. Furthermore, through a comparison with other records, the flood event in ca. 1760 AD seems to have occurred in both the arid central Asia and the Alps in Europe, and thus may have been associated with changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index.

Recovery from hip fracture in eight areas of function.

PubMed

Magaziner, J; Hawkes, W; Hebel, J R; Zimmerman, S I; Fox, K M; Dolan, M; Felsenthal, G; Kenzora, J

2000-09-01

This report describes changes in eight areas of functioning after a hip fracture, identifies the point at which maximal levels of recovery are reached in each area, and evaluates the sequence of recuperation across multiple functional domains. METHODS. Community-residing hip fracture patients (n = 674) admitted to eight hospitals in Baltimore, Maryland, 1990-1991 were followed prospectively for 2 years from the time of hospitalization. Eight areas of function (i.e., upper and lower extremity physical and instrumental activities of daily living; gait and balance; social, cognitive, and affective function) were measured by personal interview and direct observation during hospitalization at 2, 6, 12, 18, and 24 months. Levels of recovery are described in each area, and time to reach maximal recovery was estimated using Generalized Estimating Equations and longitudinal data. Most areas of functioning showed progressive lessening of dependence over the first postfracture year, with different levels of recovery and time to maximum levels observed for each area. New dependency in physical and instrumental tasks for those not requiring equipment or human assistance prefracture ranged from as low as 20.3% for putting on pants to as high as 89.9% for climbing five stairs. Recuperation times were specific to area of function, ranging from approximately 4 months for depressive symptoms (3.9 months), upper extremity function (4.3 months), and cognition (4.4 months) to almost a year for lower extremity function (11.2 months). Functional disability following hip fracture is significant, patterns of recovery differ by area of function, and there appears to be an orderly sequence by which areas of function reach their maximal levels.

Composite Flood Risk for Virgin Island

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The Composite Flood Risk layer combines flood hazard datasets from Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) flood zones, NOAA's Shallow Coastal Flooding, and the National Hurricane Center SLOSH model for Storm Surge inundation for category 1, 2, and 3 hurricanes.Geographic areas are represented by a grid of 10 by 10 meter cells and each cell has a ranking based on variation in exposure to flooding hazards: Moderate, High and Extreme exposure. Geographic areas in each input layers are ranked based on their probability of flood risk exposure. The logic was such that areas exposed to flooding on a more frequent basis were given a higher ranking. Thus the ranking incorporates the probability of the area being flooded. For example, even though a Category 3 storm surge has higher flooding elevations, the likelihood of the occurrence is lower than a Category 1 storm surge and therefore the Category 3 flood area is given a lower exposure ranking. Extreme exposure areas are those areas that are exposed to relatively frequent flooding.The ranked input layers are then converted to a raster for the creation of the composite risk layer by using cell statistics in spatial analysis. The highest exposure ranking for a given cell in any of the three input layers is assigned to the corresponding cell in the composite layer.For example, if an area (a cell) is rank as medium in the FEMA layer, moderate in the SLOSH layer, but extreme in the SCF layer, the cell will be considere

A quarter century of biomonitoring atmospheric pollution in the Czech Republic.

PubMed

Suchara, Ivan; Sucharová, Julie; Holá, Marie

2017-05-01

The Czech Republic (CZ) had extremely high emissions and atmospheric deposition of pollutants in the second half of the 1980s. Since the beginning of the 1990s, moss, spruce bark and forest floor humus have been used as bioindicators of air quality. In the first half of the 1990s, seven larger areas were found to be affected by high atmospheric deposition loads. Six of these "hot spots" were caused by industrial pollution sources, mainly situated in coal basins in the NW and NE part of the country, and one large area in the SE was affected by increased deposition loads of eroded soil particles. After restructuring of industry in CZ, these hot spots were substantially reduced or even disappeared between 1995 and 2000. Since 2000, only two larger areas with slightly increased levels of industrial pollutant deposition and a larger area affected by soil dust have repeatedly been identified by biomonitoring. The distribution of lead isotope ratios in moss showed the main deposition zones around important emission sources. Very high SO 2 emissions led to extreme acidity of spruce bark extracts (pH of about 2.3) at the end of the 1980s. The rate of increasing bark pH was strikingly similar to the rate of recovery of acid wet deposition measured at forest stations in CZ. By about 2005, when the median pH value in bark increased to about 3.2, the re-colonisation of trees by several epiphyte lichen species was observed throughout CZ. An increase in the accumulation of Chernobyl-derived 137 Cs in bark was detected at about ten sites affected by precipitation during the time when radioactive plumes crossed CZ (1986). Accumulated deposition loads in forest floor humus corresponded to the position of the moss and bark hot spots.

Flood frequency estimates and documented and potential extreme peak discharges in Oklahoma

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tortorelli, Robert L.; McCabe, Lan P.

2001-01-01

Knowledge of the magnitude and frequency of floods is required for the safe and economical design of highway bridges, culverts, dams, levees, and other structures on or near streams; and for flood plain management programs. Flood frequency estimates for gaged streamflow sites were updated, documented extreme peak discharges for gaged and miscellaneous measurement sites were tabulated, and potential extreme peak discharges for Oklahoma streamflow sites were estimated. Potential extreme peak discharges, derived from the relation between documented extreme peak discharges and contributing drainage areas, can provide valuable information concerning the maximum peak discharge that could be expected at a stream site. Potential extreme peak discharge is useful in conjunction with flood frequency analysis to give the best evaluation of flood risk at a site. Peak discharge and flood frequency for selected recurrence intervals from 2 to 500 years were estimated for 352 gaged streamflow sites. Data through 1999 water year were used from streamflow-gaging stations with at least 8 years of record within Oklahoma or about 25 kilometers into the bordering states of Arkansas, Kansas, Missouri, New Mexico, and Texas. These sites were in unregulated basins, and basins affected by regulation, urbanization, and irrigation. Documented extreme peak discharges and associated data were compiled for 514 sites in and near Oklahoma, 352 with streamflow-gaging stations and 162 at miscellaneous measurements sites or streamflow-gaging stations with short record, with a total of 671 measurements.The sites are fairly well distributed statewide, however many streams, large and small, have never been monitored. Potential extreme peak-discharge curves were developed for streamflow sites in hydrologic regions of the state based on documented extreme peak discharges and the contributing drainage areas. Two hydrologic regions, east and west, were defined using 98 degrees 15 minutes longitude as the dividing line.

Object extraction in photogrammetric computer vision

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mayer, Helmut

This paper discusses state and promising directions of automated object extraction in photogrammetric computer vision considering also practical aspects arising for digital photogrammetric workstations (DPW). A review of the state of the art shows that there are only few practically successful systems on the market. Therefore, important issues for a practical success of automated object extraction are identified. A sound and most important powerful theoretical background is the basis. Here, we particularly point to statistical modeling. Testing makes clear which of the approaches are suited best and how useful they are for praxis. A key for commercial success of a practical system is efficient user interaction. As the means for data acquisition are changing, new promising application areas such as extremely detailed three-dimensional (3D) urban models for virtual television or mission rehearsal evolve.

Environmental health aspects of drinking water-borne outbreak due to karst flooding: case study.

PubMed

Dura, Gyula; Pándics, Tamás; Kádár, Mihály; Krisztalovics, Katalin; Kiss, Zoltánné; Bodnár, Judit; Asztalos, Agnes; Papp, Erzsébet

2010-09-01

Climate change may increase the incidence of waterborne diseases due to extreme rainfall events, and consequent microbiological contamination of the water source and supply. As a result of the complexity of the pathways from the surface to the consumer, it is difficult to detect an association between rainfall and human disease. The water supply of a Hungarian city, Miskolc (174,000 inhabitant), is mainly based on karstic water, a vulnerable underground water body. A large amount of precipitation fell on the catchment area of the karstic water source, causing an unusually strong karstic water flow and flooding, and subsequent microbiological contamination. The presence of several potential sources of contamination in the protective zone of the karstic water source should be emphasized. The water supplier was unprepared to treat the risk of waterborne outbreak caused by an extreme weather event. Public health intervention and hygienic measures were taken in line with epidemiological actions, focusing on the protection of consumers by providing safe drinking water. The contamination was identified, and measures were taken for risk reduction and prevention. This case study underlines the increasing importance of preparedness for extreme water events in order to protect the karstic water sources and to avoid waterborne outbreaks.

UV-resistant yeasts isolated from a high-altitude volcanic area on the Atacama Desert as eukaryotic models for astrobiology.

PubMed

Pulschen, André A; Rodrigues, Fabio; Duarte, Rubens T D; Araujo, Gabriel G; Santiago, Iara F; Paulino-Lima, Ivan G; Rosa, Carlos A; Kato, Massuo J; Pellizari, Vivian H; Galante, Douglas

2015-08-01

The Sairecabur volcano (5971 m), in the Atacama Desert, is a high-altitude extreme environment with high daily temperature variations, acidic soils, intense UV radiation, and low availability of water. Four different species of yeasts were isolated from this region using oligotrophic media, identified and characterized for their tolerance to extreme conditions. rRNA sequencing revealed high identity (>98%) to Cryptococcus friedmannii, Exophiala sp., Holtermanniella watticus, and Rhodosporidium toruloides. To our knowledge, this is the first report of these yeasts in the Atacama Desert. All isolates showed high resistance to UV-C, UV-B and environmental-UV radiation, capacity to grow at moderate saline media (0.75-2.25 mol/L NaCl) and at moderate to cold temperatures, being C. friedmannii and H. watticus able to grow in temperatures down to -6.5°C. The presence of pigments, analyzed by Raman spectroscopy, correlated with UV resistance in some cases, but there is evidence that, on the natural environment, other molecular mechanisms may be as important as pigmentation, which has implications for the search of spectroscopic biosignatures on planetary surfaces. Due to the extreme tolerances of the isolated yeasts, these organisms represent interesting eukaryotic models for astrobiological purposes. © 2015 The Authors. MicrobiologyOpen published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

UV-resistant yeasts isolated from a high-altitude volcanic area on the Atacama Desert as eukaryotic models for astrobiology

PubMed Central

Pulschen, André A; Rodrigues, Fabio; Duarte, Rubens T D; Araujo, Gabriel G; Santiago, Iara F; Paulino-Lima, Ivan G; Rosa, Carlos A; Kato, Massuo J; Pellizari, Vivian H; Galante, Douglas

2015-01-01

The Sairecabur volcano (5971 m), in the Atacama Desert, is a high-altitude extreme environment with high daily temperature variations, acidic soils, intense UV radiation, and low availability of water. Four different species of yeasts were isolated from this region using oligotrophic media, identified and characterized for their tolerance to extreme conditions. rRNA sequencing revealed high identity (>98%) to Cryptococcus friedmannii, Exophiala sp., Holtermanniella watticus, and Rhodosporidium toruloides. To our knowledge, this is the first report of these yeasts in the Atacama Desert. All isolates showed high resistance to UV-C, UV-B and environmental-UV radiation, capacity to grow at moderate saline media (0.75–2.25 mol/L NaCl) and at moderate to cold temperatures, being C. friedmannii and H. watticus able to grow in temperatures down to −6.5°C. The presence of pigments, analyzed by Raman spectroscopy, correlated with UV resistance in some cases, but there is evidence that, on the natural environment, other molecular mechanisms may be as important as pigmentation, which has implications for the search of spectroscopic biosignatures on planetary surfaces. Due to the extreme tolerances of the isolated yeasts, these organisms represent interesting eukaryotic models for astrobiological purposes. PMID:26147800

UV-resistant yeasts isolated from a high-altitude volcanic area on the Atacama Desert as eukaryotic models for astrobiology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pulschen, A. A.; Rodrigues, F.; Duarte, R. T.; Araujo, G. G.; Santiago, I. F.; Paulino-Lima, Ivan G.; Rosa, Carlos A.; Kato, Massuo J.; Pellizari, Vivian H.; Galante, Douglas

2015-08-01

The Sairecabur volcano (5971 m), in the Atacama Desert, is a high-altitude extreme environment with high daily temperature variations, acidic soils, intense UV radiation, and low availability of water. Four different species of yeasts were isolated from this region using oligotrophic media, identified and characterized for their tolerance to extreme conditions. rRNA sequencing revealed high identity (>98%) to Cryptococcus friedmannii, Exophiala sp., Holtermanniella watticus, and Rhodosporidium toruloides. To our knowledge, this is the first report of these yeasts in the Atacama Desert. All isolates showed high resistance to UV-C, UV-B and environmental-UV radiation, capacity to grow at moderate saline media (0.75-2.25 mol/L NaCl) and at moderate to cold temperatures, being C. friedmannii and H. watticus able to grow in temperatures down to -6.5°C. The presence of pigments, analyzed by Raman spectroscopy, correlated with UV resistance in some cases, but there is evidence that, on the natural environment, other molecular mechanisms may be as important as pigmentation, which has implications for the search of spectroscopic biosignatures on planetary surfaces. Due to the extreme tolerances of the isolated yeasts, these organisms represent interesting eukaryotic models for astrobiological purposes.

Use of local Moran's I and GIS to identify pollution hotspots of Pb in urban soils of Galway, Ireland.

PubMed

Zhang, Chaosheng; Luo, Lin; Xu, Weilin; Ledwith, Valerie

2008-07-15

Pollution hotspots in urban soils need to be identified for better environmental management. It is important to know if there are hotspots and if the hotspots are statistically significant. In this study identification of pollution hotspots was investigated using Pb concentrations in urban soils of Galway City in Ireland as an example, and the influencing factors on results of hotspot identification were investigated. The index of local Moran's I is a useful tool for identifying pollution hotspots of Pb pollution in urban soils, and for classifying them into spatial clusters and spatial outliers. The results were affected by the definition of weight function, data transformation and existence of extreme values. Compared with the results for the positively skewed raw data, the transformed data and data with extreme values excluded revealed a larger area for the high value spatial clusters in the city centre. While it is hard to decide the best way of using this index, it is suggested that all these influencing factors should be considered until reasonable and reliable results are obtained. GIS mapping can be applied to help evaluate the results via visualization of the spatial patterns. Meanwhile, selected pollution hotspots (extreme values) in this study were confirmed by re-analyses and re-sampling.

Precipitation Extremes in Dynamically Downscaled Climate Scenarios over the Greater Horn of Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shiferaw, A. S.; Tadesse, T.; Oglesby, R. J.; Rowe, C. M.

2017-12-01

The precipitation extremes were generated over the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) using the Regional Climate Models (RCMs) simulations from the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX). To assess how well the RCM simulations are capturing the historical observed precipitation extremes, they were compared with the precipitation extremes derived from Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station data (CHIRPS v2). The result shows that RCM simulations have reasonably captured observed patterns of the precipitation extremes (i.e., the pattern correlation is greater than 0.5). However, significant overestimations or underestimations were observed over some localized areas in the region. The study then assessed the projected changes in these precipitation extremes during 2069-2098 and compared to the 1976-2005 period that were both derived from the RCM simulations. Projected changes in total annual precipitation (PRCPTOT), annual number of heavy (>10mm) and very heavy (>20mm) precipitation days by 2069-2098 show a general north-south pattern with a decrease over southern-half and increase over the northern-half of GHA. These changes are often greatest over parts of Somalia, Eritrea, Ethiopian highlands and southern Tanzania. Maximum 1 and 5-day total precipitation in a year and "Simple Daily Precipitation Intensity Index" (ratio of PRCPTOT to rainy days) are projected to increase over majority of GHA, including areas where PRCPTOT is projected to decrease, suggesting fewer but heavier rainy days in the future. Changes in annual sum of daily precipitation above 95th and 99th percentile are not statistically significant except Eritrea and northwestern Sudan/Somalia. Projected changes in consecutive dry days (CDD) suggest longer periods of dryness over majority of GHA. Among these areas, a substantial increases in CDD are located over southern Tanzania and Ethiopian highlands.

Climate, icing, and wild arctic reindeer: past relationships and future prospects.

PubMed

Hansen, Brage Bremset; Aanes, Ronny; Herfindal, Ivar; Kohler, Jack; Saether, Bernt-Erik

2011-10-01

Across the Arctic, heavy rain-on-snow (ROS) is an "extreme" climatic event that is expected to become increasingly frequent with global warming. This has potentially large ecosystem implications through changes in snowpack properties and ground-icing, which can block the access to herbivores' winter food and thereby suppress their population growth rates. However, the supporting empirical evidence for this is still limited. We monitored late winter snowpack properties to examine the causes and consequences of ground-icing in a Svalbard reindeer (Rangifer tarandus platyrhynchus) metapopulation. In this high-arctic area, heavy ROS occurred annually, and ground-ice covered from 25% to 96% of low-altitude habitat in the sampling period (2000-2010). The extent of ground-icing increased with the annual number of days with heavy ROS (> or = 10 mm) and had a strong negative effect on reindeer population growth rates. Our results have important implications as a downscaled climate projection (2021-2050) suggests a substantial future increase in ROS and icing. The present study is the first to demonstrate empirically that warmer and wetter winter climate influences large herbivore population dynamics by generating ice-locked pastures. This may serve as an early warning of the importance of changes in winter climate and extreme weather events in arctic ecosystems.

Representative landscapes in the forested area of Canada.

PubMed

Cardille, Jeffrey A; White, Joanne C; Wulder, Mike A; Holland, Tara

2012-01-01

Canada is a large nation with forested ecosystems that occupy over 60% of the national land base, and knowledge of the patterns of Canada's land cover is important to proper environmental management of this vast resource. To this end, a circa 2000 Landsat-derived land cover map of the forested ecosystems of Canada has created a new window into understanding the composition and configuration of land cover patterns in forested Canada. Strategies for summarizing such large expanses of land cover are increasingly important, as land managers work to study and preserve distinctive areas, as well as to identify representative examples of current land-cover and land-use assemblages. Meanwhile, the development of extremely efficient clustering algorithms has become increasingly important in the world of computer science, in which billions of pieces of information on the internet are continually sifted for meaning for a vast variety of applications. One recently developed clustering algorithm quickly groups large numbers of items of any type in a given data set while simultaneously selecting a representative-or "exemplar"-from each cluster. In this context, the availability of both advanced data processing methods and a nationally available set of landscape metrics presents an opportunity to identify sets of representative landscapes to better understand landscape pattern, variation, and distribution across the forested area of Canada. In this research, we first identify and provide context for a small, interpretable set of exemplar landscapes that objectively represent land cover in each of Canada's ten forested ecozones. Then, we demonstrate how this approach can be used to identify flagship and satellite long-term study areas inside and outside protected areas in the province of Ontario. These applications aid our understanding of Canada's forest while augmenting its management toolbox, and may signal a broad range of applications for this versatile approach.

Representative Landscapes in the Forested Area of Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cardille, Jeffrey A.; White, Joanne C.; Wulder, Mike A.; Holland, Tara

2012-01-01

Canada is a large nation with forested ecosystems that occupy over 60% of the national land base, and knowledge of the patterns of Canada's land cover is important to proper environmental management of this vast resource. To this end, a circa 2000 Landsat-derived land cover map of the forested ecosystems of Canada has created a new window into understanding the composition and configuration of land cover patterns in forested Canada. Strategies for summarizing such large expanses of land cover are increasingly important, as land managers work to study and preserve distinctive areas, as well as to identify representative examples of current land-cover and land-use assemblages. Meanwhile, the development of extremely efficient clustering algorithms has become increasingly important in the world of computer science, in which billions of pieces of information on the internet are continually sifted for meaning for a vast variety of applications. One recently developed clustering algorithm quickly groups large numbers of items of any type in a given data set while simultaneously selecting a representative—or "exemplar"—from each cluster. In this context, the availability of both advanced data processing methods and a nationally available set of landscape metrics presents an opportunity to identify sets of representative landscapes to better understand landscape pattern, variation, and distribution across the forested area of Canada. In this research, we first identify and provide context for a small, interpretable set of exemplar landscapes that objectively represent land cover in each of Canada's ten forested ecozones. Then, we demonstrate how this approach can be used to identify flagship and satellite long-term study areas inside and outside protected areas in the province of Ontario. These applications aid our understanding of Canada's forest while augmenting its management toolbox, and may signal a broad range of applications for this versatile approach.

Japan and Iraq: A Comparison

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-05-10

Power of Ideas Democracy, freedom of speech , equal protection under the law, gender equality, freedom of religion, and free markets are extremely... freedom of speech and religion, personal property rights, etc… are extremely powerful ideas that aren’t well known in most of the areas that the US

Characterization of genetic diversity of high temperature tolerance in sorghum

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

As global warming becomes inevitable, the sustainability of agricultural production in US and worldwide faces serious threat from extreme weather conditions, such as drought and elevated extreme temperatures (heat waves). Among cereal crops, sorghum is considered a versatile crop for semiarid area a...

Global changes of extreme coastal wave energy fluxes triggered by intensified teleconnection patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mentaschi, Lorenzo; Vousdoukas, Michalis I.; Voukouvalas, Evangelos; Dosio, Alessandro; Feyen, Luc

2017-03-01

In this study we conducted a comprehensive modeling analysis to identify global trends in extreme wave energy flux (WEF) along coastlines in the 21st century under a high emission pathway (Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5). For the end of the century, results show a significant increase up to 30% in 100 year return level WEF for the majority of the coastal areas of the southern temperate zone, while in the Northern Hemisphere large coastal areas are characterized by a significant negative trend. We show that the most significant long-term trends of extreme WEF can be explained by intensification of teleconnection patterns such as the Antarctic Oscillation, El Niño-Southern Oscillation, and North Atlantic Oscillation. The projected changes will have broad implications for ocean engineering applications and disaster risk management. Especially low-lying coastal countries in the Southern Hemisphere will be particularly vulnerable due to the combined effects of projected relative sea level rise and more extreme wave activities.

Using enteric pathogens to assess sources of fecal contamination in the Silurian Dolomite Aquifer: Preliminary results

USGS Publications Warehouse

Muldoon, Maureen A; Borchardt, Mark A.; Spencer, Susan K.; Hunt, Randall J.; Owens, David

2018-01-01

The fractured Silurian dolomite aquifer is an important, but vulnerable, source of drinking water in northeast Wisconsin (Sherrill in Geology and ground water in Door County, Wisconsin, with emphasis on contamination potential in the Silurian dolomite, 1978; Bradbury and Muldoon in Hydrogeology and groundwater monitoring of fractured dolomite in the Upper Door Priority Watershed, Door County, Wisconsin, 1992; Muldoon and Bradbury in Assessing seasonal variations in recharge and water quality in the Silurian aquifer in areas with thicker soil cover. p 45, 2010). Areas underlain by the Silurian dolomite aquifer are extremely vulnerable to groundwater contamination from various land-use activities, especially the disposal of human wastewater and dairy manure. Currently there is no consensus as to which source of wastewater generates the greater impact to the aquifer.

Integration of environmental and spectral data for sunflower stress determination. [Red River Valley, Minnesota

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lillesand, T.; Seeley, M.

1983-01-01

Stress in sunflowers was assessed in western and northwestern Minnesota. Weekly ground observations (acquired in 1980 and 1981) were analyzed in concert with large scale aerial photography and concurrent LANDSAT data. Using multidate supervised and unsupervised classification procedures, it was found that all crops grown in association with sunflowers in the study area are spectrally separable from one another. Under conditions of extreme drought, severely stressed plants were differentiable from those not severely stressed, but between-crop separation was not possible. Initial regression analyses to estimate sunflower seed yield showed a sensitivity to environmental stress during the flowering and seed development stages. One of the most important biological factors related to sunflower production in the Red River Valley area was found to be the extent and severity of insect infestations.

Exploration for fractured petroleum reservoirs using radar/Landsat merge combinations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Macdonald, H.; Waite, W.; Borengasser, M.; Tolman, D.; Elachi, C.

1981-01-01

Since fractures are commonly propagated upward and reflected at the earth's surface as subtle linears, detection of these surface features is extremely important in many phases of petroleum exploration and development. To document the usefulness of microwave analysis for petroleum exploration, the Arkansas part of the Arkoma basin is selected as a prime test site. The research plan involves comparing the aircraft microwave imagery and Landsat imagery in an area where significant subsurface borehole geophysical data are available. In the northern Arkoma basin, a positive correlation between the number of linears in a given area and production from cherty carbonate strata is found. In the southern part of the basin, little relationship is discernible between surface structure and gas production, and no correlation is found between gas productivity and linear proximity or linear density as determined from remote sensor data.

Extreme Precipitation and Emergency Room Visits for Gastrointestinal Illness in Areas with and without Combined Sewer Systems: An Analysis of Massachusetts Data, 2003–2007

PubMed Central

Li, Quanlin; Wang, Shiliang; Messier, Kyle P.; Wade, Timothy J.; Hilborn, Elizabeth D.

2015-01-01

Background Combined sewer overflows (CSOs) occur in combined sewer systems when sewage and stormwater runoff are released into water bodies, potentially contaminating water sources. CSOs are often caused by heavy precipitation and are expected to increase with increasing extreme precipitation associated with climate change. Objectives The aim of this study was to assess whether the association between heavy rainfall and rate of emergency room (ER) visits for gastrointestinal (GI) illness differed in the presence of CSOs. Methods For the study period 2003–2007, time series of daily rate of ER visits for GI illness and meteorological data were organized for three exposure regions: a) CSOs impacting drinking water sources, b) CSOs impacting recreational waters, c) no CSOs. A distributed lag Poisson regression assessed cumulative effects for an 8-day lag period following heavy (≥ 90th and ≥ 95th percentile) and extreme (≥ 99th percentile) precipitation events, controlling for temperature and long-term time trends. Results The association between extreme rainfall and rate of ER visits for GI illness differed among regions. Only the region with drinking water exposed to CSOs demonstrated a significant increased cumulative risk for rate (CRR) of ER visits for GI for all ages in the 8-day period following extreme rainfall: CRR: 1.13 (95% CI: 1.00, 1.28) compared with no rainfall. Conclusions The rate of ER visits for GI illness was associated with extreme precipitation in the area with CSO discharges to a drinking water source. Our findings suggest an increased risk for GI illness among consumers whose drinking water source may be impacted by CSOs after extreme precipitation. Citation Jagai JS, Li Q, Wang S, Messier KP, Wade TJ, Hilborn ED. 2015. Extreme precipitation and emergency room visits for gastrointestinal illness in areas with and without combined sewer systems: an analysis of Massachusetts data, 2003–2007. Environ Health Perspect 123:873–879; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1408971 PMID:25855939

Workshop report on large-scale matrix diagonalization methods in chemistry theory institute

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bischof, C.H.; Shepard, R.L.; Huss-Lederman, S.

The Large-Scale Matrix Diagonalization Methods in Chemistry theory institute brought together 41 computational chemists and numerical analysts. The goal was to understand the needs of the computational chemistry community in problems that utilize matrix diagonalization techniques. This was accomplished by reviewing the current state of the art and looking toward future directions in matrix diagonalization techniques. This institute occurred about 20 years after a related meeting of similar size. During those 20 years the Davidson method continued to dominate the problem of finding a few extremal eigenvalues for many computational chemistry problems. Work on non-diagonally dominant and non-Hermitian problems asmore » well as parallel computing has also brought new methods to bear. The changes and similarities in problems and methods over the past two decades offered an interesting viewpoint for the success in this area. One important area covered by the talks was overviews of the source and nature of the chemistry problems. The numerical analysts were uniformly grateful for the efforts to convey a better understanding of the problems and issues faced in computational chemistry. An important outcome was an understanding of the wide range of eigenproblems encountered in computational chemistry. The workshop covered problems involving self- consistent-field (SCF), configuration interaction (CI), intramolecular vibrational relaxation (IVR), and scattering problems. In atomic structure calculations using the Hartree-Fock method (SCF), the symmetric matrices can range from order hundreds to thousands. These matrices often include large clusters of eigenvalues which can be as much as 25% of the spectrum. However, if Cl methods are also used, the matrix size can be between 10{sup 4} and 10{sup 9} where only one or a few extremal eigenvalues and eigenvectors are needed. Working with very large matrices has lead to the development of« less

Regional flood impact assessment for Kiel and Eckernförde, Germany

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shustikova, Iuliia; Viavattene, Christophe; Seiß, Guntram

2017-04-01

It is well-observed that extreme flood events bring considerable destruction to coastal communities. The estimates of damage increases when direct and indirect losses are both considered in the assessment. This study applied the INtegrated DisRuption Assessment (INDRA) model which is designed to estimate and compare not only tangible but also intangible losses such as risk to life, recovery mechanisms and household displacement. Multi-criteria analysis (MCA) was performed in order to compare hotspots of high flood risk on the regional scale and detect which impact indicators influence results the most. INDRA allowed assessing the following impact indicators: direct damages to buildings and roads, transport disruption, risk to life and financial recovery mechanisms of private households and businesses. The focus was on two hotspots of flood risk, where direct and indirect impacts from 200 years flood were assessed and analyzed in terms of relative importance to the region. The region here was defined as municipalities located on the Baltic Sea coast within the Schleswig-Holstein state, Germany. The hotspots are the towns of Kiel and Eckernförde. They are urban areas with a high concentration of people and assets, which previously experienced extreme flood events. From the performed investigation it was found out that modeled flood differently impacts Kiel and Eckernförde. The results produced by MCA show that the scores of direct and indirect damage are slightly higher in Eckernförde than in Kiel. Transport disruption is a compelling element in the performed regional impact assessment and demonstrated immense weight. Extreme events may pose significant direct and indirect impacts on the coastal roads, obstructing not only the access to important landmarks such as hospitals, train stations, harbors, etc. but also to contiguous municipalities. Yet, the analysis showed that other impact indicators are rather of local importance and would not cause vast damage on a regional scale. Nonetheless, the study suggests, that these effects should not be underestimated in terms of losses.

Mapping Patterns and Trends in the Spatial Availability of Alcohol Using Low-Level Geographic Data: A Case Study in England 2003-2013.

PubMed

Angus, Colin; Holmes, John; Maheswaran, Ravi; Green, Mark A; Meier, Petra; Brennan, Alan

2017-04-12

Much literature examines the relationship between the spatial availability of alcohol and alcohol-related harm. This study aims to address an important gap in this evidence by using detailed outlet data to examine recent temporal trends in the sociodemographic distribution of spatial availability for different types of alcohol outlet in England. Descriptive analysis of measures of alcohol outlet density and proximity using extremely high resolution market research data stratified by outlet type and quintiles of area-level deprivation from 2003, 2007, 2010 and 2013 was undertaken and hierarchical linear growth models fitted to explore the significance of socioeconomic differences. We find that overall availability of alcohol changed very little from 2003 to 2013 (density +1.6%), but this conceals conflicting trends by outlet type and area-level deprivation. Mean on-trade density has decreased substantially (-2.2 outlets within 1 km (Inter-Quartile Range (IQR) -3-0), although access to restaurants has increased (+1.0 outlets (IQR 0-1)), while off-trade access has risen substantially (+2.4 outlets (IQR 0-3)). Availability is highest in the most deprived areas ( p < 0.0001) although these areas have also seen the greatest falls in on-trade outlet availability ( p < 0.0001). This study underlines the importance of using detailed, low-level geographic data to understand patterns and trends in the spatial availability of alcohol. There are significant variations in these trends by outlet type and deprivation level which may have important implications for health inequalities and public health policy.

Mapping Patterns and Trends in the Spatial Availability of Alcohol Using Low-Level Geographic Data: A Case Study in England 2003–2013

PubMed Central

Angus, Colin; Holmes, John; Maheswaran, Ravi; Green, Mark A.; Meier, Petra; Brennan, Alan

2017-01-01

Much literature examines the relationship between the spatial availability of alcohol and alcohol-related harm. This study aims to address an important gap in this evidence by using detailed outlet data to examine recent temporal trends in the sociodemographic distribution of spatial availability for different types of alcohol outlet in England. Descriptive analysis of measures of alcohol outlet density and proximity using extremely high resolution market research data stratified by outlet type and quintiles of area-level deprivation from 2003, 2007, 2010 and 2013 was undertaken and hierarchical linear growth models fitted to explore the significance of socioeconomic differences. We find that overall availability of alcohol changed very little from 2003 to 2013 (density +1.6%), but this conceals conflicting trends by outlet type and area-level deprivation. Mean on-trade density has decreased substantially (−2.2 outlets within 1 km (Inter-Quartile Range (IQR) −3–0), although access to restaurants has increased (+1.0 outlets (IQR 0–1)), while off-trade access has risen substantially (+2.4 outlets (IQR 0–3)). Availability is highest in the most deprived areas (p < 0.0001) although these areas have also seen the greatest falls in on-trade outlet availability (p < 0.0001). This study underlines the importance of using detailed, low-level geographic data to understand patterns and trends in the spatial availability of alcohol. There are significant variations in these trends by outlet type and deprivation level which may have important implications for health inequalities and public health policy. PMID:28417941

Widespread Albedo Decreasing and Induced Melting of Himalayan Snow and Ice in the Early 21st Century

PubMed Central

Ming, Jing; Wang, Yaqiang; Du, Zhencai; Zhang, Tong; Guo, Wanqin; Xiao, Cunde; Xu, Xiaobin; Ding, Minghu; Zhang, Dongqi; Yang, Wen

2015-01-01

Background The widely distributed glaciers in the greater Himalayan region have generally experienced rapid shrinkage since the 1850s. As invaluable sources of water and because of their scarcity, these glaciers are extremely important. Beginning in the twenty-first century, new methods have been applied to measure the mass budget of these glaciers. Investigations have shown that the albedo is an important parameter that affects the melting of Himalayan glaciers. Methodology/Principal Findings The surface albedo based on the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data over the Hindu Kush, Karakoram and Himalaya (HKH) glaciers is surveyed in this study for the period 2000–2011. The general albedo trend shows that the glaciers have been darkening since 2000. The most rapid decrease in the surface albedo has occurred in the glacial area above 6000 m, which implies that melting will likely extend to snow accumulation areas. The mass-loss equivalent (MLE) of the HKH glacial area caused by surface shortwave radiation absorption is estimated to be 10.4 Gt yr-1, which may contribute to 1.2% of the global sea level rise on annual average (2003–2009). Conclusions/Significance This work probably presents a first scene depicting the albedo variations over the whole HKH glacial area during the period 2000–2011. Most rapidly decreasing in albedo has been detected in the highest area, which deserves to be especially concerned. PMID:26039088

Modeling Integrated Cave Drip Recharge Data using DReAM (Daily Recharge Assessment Model) in a Dry Eastern Mediterranean Area, Sif Cave - Israel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anker, Y.; Sheffer, N. A.; Scanlon, B. R.; Gimburg, A.; Morin, E.

2010-12-01

Understanding recharge mechanisms and controls in karst regions is extremely important for managing water resources because of the dynamic nature of the system. To better understand this mechanism, a cave in the recharge area of the karstic Western Mountain Aquifer (WMA) of Israel was equipped to measure precipitation infiltration (2006-2008) by collecting integrated water drips from three areas in the cave (14, 46, and 52 m2 areas). Barrels equipped with pressure transducers record drip rate and volume for each of the three areas and enable estimation of recharge. A water budget model - DReAM (Daily Recharge Assessment Model) was used to quantify and predict infiltration behavior at the cave. DReAM includes calculations of all water cycle components - precipitation, evapotranspiration, runoff and recharge. The model was calibrated and validated using two independent sets of values, providing good agreement between calculated and observed data. Modeling results agree with previous studies that show: 1) three distinct flow paths (slow, intermediate, and fast flows) of water infiltrating at the cave; 2) a threshold of ~100 mm rain at the beginning of the rainy season for infiltration to begin; and 3) a decrease in lag time between rain events and infiltration response throughout the rainy season. This modeling tool and analysis approach can translate precipitation to groundwater recharge which will be very important for projecting future water resources in response to climate variability.

[Constructing ecological security patterns in mountain areas based on geological disaster sensitivity: A case study in Yuxi City, Yunnan Province, China.

PubMed

Peng, Jian; Guo, Xiao Nan; Hu, Yi Na; Liu, Yan Xu

2017-02-01

As one of the key topics in the research of landscape ecology, regional ecological security patterns can effectively promote regional sustainable development and terrestrial ecological barriers construction. It is extremely important for middle Yunnan, with frequent disasters and fragile ecolo-gical environment, to construct ecological security patterns so as to effectively avoid the geological disasters, maintain ecosystem health, and promote the coordinated development of regional ecological system and social economic system. Taking Yuxi City as a case study area, this study firstly estimated the ecosystem services importance of water conservation, carbon fixation and oxygen release, soil conservation, and biodiversity according to the basal characteristics of regional ecological environment, and then identified ecological sources in consideration of the quality of integrated ecosystem services and single types. Secondly, the resistance surface based on land use types was modified by the sensitivity of regional geological disasters. Lastly, the ecological corridors were identified using minimum cumulative resistance model, and as a result, the ecological security pattern of Yuxi City was constructed. The results showed that there were 81 patches for ecological sources in Yuxi City, accounting for 38.4% of the total area, and overlaying 75.2% of nature protection areas. The ecological sources were mainly distributed in the western mountainous areas as well as eastern water areas of the city. The length of ecological corridors was 1642.04 km, presenting a spatial pattern of one vertical and three horizontals, and extending along river valleys and fault basins with high vegetation coverage. This paper constructed ecological security patterns in mountainous areas aiming at the characteristics of geological disasters, providing spatial guidance for development and conservation decision-making in mountain areas.

Cut-off characterisation of energy spectra of bright Fermi sources: Current instrument limits and future possibilities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Romoli, Carlo; Taylor, Andrew M.; Aharonian, Felix

2017-01-01

The cut-off region of the gamma-ray spectrum of astrophysical sources encodes important information about the acceleration processes producing the parent particle population. For bright AGNs the cut-off happens in an energy range around a few tens of GeV, a region where satellites are limited by their effective area and current ground based telescopes by energy threshold. In the attempt to maximise the statistics, we have looked at two of the brightest AGNs seen by the Fermi-LAT (3C 454.3 and 3C 279) during extremely luminous flares. Our analysis showed the difficulty to obtain good constraints on the cut-off parameters when a power-law with modified exponential cut-off was assumed to fit the SEDs. We discuss the potential of future low-threshold Cherenkov telescope arrays, in particular CTA, showing the impact that a much bigger effective area can have on the determination of spectral parameters in the cut-off region. This preliminary study serves as an example, demonstrating the importance of having good wide-energy coverage around 10 GeV.

Spatiotemporal variability of extreme temperature frequency and amplitude in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Yuanjie; Gao, Zhiqiu; Pan, Zaitao; Li, Dan; Huang, Xinhui

2017-03-01

Temperature extremes in China are examined based on daily maximum and minimum temperatures from station observations and multiple global climate models. The magnitude and frequency of extremes are expressed in terms of return values and periods, respectively, estimated by the fitted Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution of annual extreme temperatures. The observations suggest that changes in temperature extremes considerably exceed changes in the respective climatological means during the past five decades, with greater amplitude of increases in cold extremes than in warm extremes. The frequency of warm (cold) extremes increases (decreases) over most areas, with an increasingly faster rate as the extremity level rises. Changes in warm extremes are more dependent on the varying shape of GEV distribution than the location shift, whereas changes in cold extremes are more closely associated with the location shift. The models simulate the overall pattern of temperature extremes during 1961-1981 reasonably well in China, but they show a smaller asymmetry between changes in warm and cold extremes primarily due to their underestimation of increases in cold extremes especially over southern China. Projections from a high emission scenario show the multi-model median change in warm and cold extremes by 2040 relative to 1971 will be 2.6 °C and 2.8 °C, respectively, with the strongest changes in cold extremes shifting southward. By 2040, warm extremes at the 1971 20-year return values would occur about every three years, while the 1971 cold extremes would occur once in > 500 years.

Inclusion of climatic and touristic factors in the analysis and modelling of the municipal water demand in a Mediterranean region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Toth, Elena; Bragalli, Cristiana; Neri, Mattia

2017-04-01

In Mediterranean regions, inherently affected by water scarcity conditions, the gap between water availability and demand may further increase in the near future due to both climatic and anthropogenic drivers. In particular, the high degree of urbanization and the concentration of population and activities in coastal areas is often severely impacting the water availability also for the residential sector. It is therefore crucial analysing the importance of both climatic and touristic factors as drivers for the water demand in such areas, to better understand and model the expected consumption in order to improve the water management policies and practices. The study presents an analysis referred to a large number of municipalities, covering almost the whole Romagna region, in Northern Italy, representing one of the most economically developed areas in Europe and characterized by an extremely profitable tourist industry, especially in the coastal cities. For this region it is therefore extremely important to assess the significance of the drivers that may influence the demand in the different periods of the year, that is climatic factors (rainfall depths and occurrence, temperature averages and extremes), but also the presence of tourists, in both official tourist accommodation structures and in holidays homes (and the latter are very difficult to estimate). Analyses on the Italian water industry at seasonal or monthly time scale has been so far, extremely limited in the literature by the scarce availability of data on the water demands, that are made public only as annual volumes. All the study municipalities are supplied by the same water company, who provided monthly consumption volumes data at the main inlet points of the entire distribution network for a period of 7 years (2009-2015). For the same period, precipitation and temperature data have been collected and summarised in indexes representing monthly averages, days of occurrence and over threshold values; in addition, information on the tourist flows, at monthly scale, have been collected and processed. Such data have been validated and aggregated at municipal or multi-municipal scale and are analysed, in particular in reference to a severe dry period occurred in 2011-2012, in order to understand the demand pattern and the users' response to a water scarcity condition, examining the influence of the different climatic and anthropogenic (touristic) drivers on the water demand. Finally, a non-linear model, based on a neural network architecture, was implemented for each municipality, for simulating the monthly water demand as a function of previous demands and of the identified climatic and touristic indexes: the outcomes of the models demonstrate the added value of the addition of determinants based on both climatic and touristic data and such value, as expected, is higher for the coastal municipalities, having a higher tourist vocation.

Integrating regional conservation priorities for multiple objectives into national policy

PubMed Central

Beger, Maria; McGowan, Jennifer; Treml, Eric A.; Green, Alison L.; White, Alan T.; Wolff, Nicholas H.; Klein, Carissa J.; Mumby, Peter J.; Possingham, Hugh P.

2015-01-01

Multinational conservation initiatives that prioritize investment across a region invariably navigate trade-offs among multiple objectives. It seems logical to focus where several objectives can be achieved efficiently, but such multi-objective hotspots may be ecologically inappropriate, or politically inequitable. Here we devise a framework to facilitate a regionally cohesive set of marine-protected areas driven by national preferences and supported by quantitative conservation prioritization analyses, and illustrate it using the Coral Triangle Initiative. We identify areas important for achieving six objectives to address ecosystem representation, threatened fauna, connectivity and climate change. We expose trade-offs between areas that contribute substantially to several objectives and those meeting one or two objectives extremely well. Hence there are two strategies to guide countries choosing to implement regional goals nationally: multi-objective hotspots and complementary sets of single-objective priorities. This novel framework is applicable to any multilateral or global initiative seeking to apply quantitative information in decision making. PMID:26364769

Can Multiple Cropping Help to Avoid the Impacts of Heat Extremes? The Case of Winter Wheat/Soybean Double Cropping in the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seifert, C.; Lobell, D. B.

2014-12-01

In adapting U.S. agriculture to the climate of the 21st century, multiple cropping presents a unique opportunity to help offset projected negative trends in agricultural production while moving critical crop yield formation periods outside of the hottest months of the year. Critical constraints on this practice include moisture availability, and, more importantly, growing season length. We review evidence that this last constraint has decreased in the previous quarter century, allowing for more winter wheat/soybean double cropping in previously phenologically constrained areas. We also carry this pattern forward to 2100, showing a 126% to 211% increase in the area phenologically suitable for double cropping under the RCP45 and RCP85 scenarios respectively. These results suggest that climate change will relieve phenological constraints on wheat-soy double cropping systems over much of the United States, changing production patterns and crop rotations as areas become suitable for the practice.

Facile and Scalable Fabrication of Highly Efficient Lead Iodide Perovskite Thin-Film Solar Cells in Air Using Gas Pump Method.

PubMed

Ding, Bin; Gao, Lili; Liang, Lusheng; Chu, Qianqian; Song, Xiaoxuan; Li, Yan; Yang, Guanjun; Fan, Bin; Wang, Mingkui; Li, Chengxin; Li, Changjiu

2016-08-10

Control of the perovskite film formation process to produce high-quality organic-inorganic metal halide perovskite thin films with uniform morphology, high surface coverage, and minimum pinholes is of great importance to highly efficient solar cells. Herein, we report on large-area light-absorbing perovskite films fabrication with a new facile and scalable gas pump method. By decreasing the total pressure in the evaporation environment, the gas pump method can significantly enhance the solvent evaporation rate by 8 times faster and thereby produce an extremely dense, uniform, and full-coverage perovskite thin film. The resulting planar perovskite solar cells can achieve an impressive power conversion efficiency up to 19.00% with an average efficiency of 17.38 ± 0.70% for 32 devices with an area of 5 × 2 mm, 13.91% for devices with a large area up to 1.13 cm(2). The perovskite films can be easily fabricated in air conditions with a relative humidity of 45-55%, which definitely has a promising prospect in industrial application of large-area perovskite solar panels.

Study of the marine environment of the northern Gulf of California

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hendrickson, J. R. (Principal Investigator)

1972-01-01

The author has identified the following significant results. Preliminary analysis of the first three months of ERTS-1 imagery have revealed that the MSS images have particular utility for study of turbidity patterns, current phenomena, and bathymetry throughout the test area. Early indications are that well defined spatial distributions of turbidity exist in the northern Gulf of California, and that for any one point in time, these distributions vary with depth. From a single set of images, as many as 3 turbidity maps may be generated, each indicating a vertical spatial relationship of the turbidity masses. The spatial distribution of turbidity masses depend partially upon the coincident currents. In the band of deepest penetration, a map can be gathered which roughly corresponds to the bathymetry of the area. The extreme tides in the northern Gulf of California result in vast areas which can be classified as intertidal mud flats. Information on the amount of exposure at the varying tidal states is important in analysis of these mud flat areas as nursery ground for Mexican commercial fisheries.

Method for Assessing the Integrated Risk of Soil Pollution in Industrial and Mining Gathering Areas

PubMed Central

Guan, Yang; Shao, Chaofeng; Gu, Qingbao; Ju, Meiting; Zhang, Qian

2015-01-01

Industrial and mining activities are recognized as major sources of soil pollution. This study proposes an index system for evaluating the inherent risk level of polluting factories and introduces an integrated risk assessment method based on human health risk. As a case study, the health risk, polluting factories and integrated risks were analyzed in a typical industrial and mining gathering area in China, namely, Binhai New Area. The spatial distribution of the risk level was determined using a Geographic Information System. The results confirmed the following: (1) Human health risk in the study area is moderate to extreme, with heavy metals posing the greatest threat; (2) Polluting factories pose a moderate to extreme inherent risk in the study area. Such factories are concentrated in industrial and urban areas, but are irregularly distributed and also occupy agricultural land, showing a lack of proper planning and management; (3) The integrated risks of soil are moderate to high in the study area. PMID:26580644

Nearly extremal apparent horizons in simulations of merging black holes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lovelace, Geoffrey; Scheel, Mark A.; Owen, Robert; Giesler, Matthew; Katebi, Reza; Szilágyi, Béla; Chu, Tony; Demos, Nicholas; Hemberger, Daniel A.; Kidder, Lawrence E.; Pfeiffer, Harald P.; Afshari, Nousha

2015-03-01

The spin angular momentum S of an isolated Kerr black hole is bounded by the surface area A of its apparent horizon: 8π S≤slant A, with equality for extremal black holes. In this paper, we explore the extremality of individual and common apparent horizons for merging, rapidly spinning binary black holes. We consider simulations of merging black holes with equal masses M and initial spin angular momenta aligned with the orbital angular momentum, including new simulations with spin magnitudes up to S/{{M}2}=0.994. We measure the area and (using approximate Killing vectors) the spin on the individual and common apparent horizons, finding that the inequality 8π S\\lt A is satisfied in all cases but is very close to equality on the common apparent horizon at the instant it first appears. We also evaluate the Booth-Fairhurst extremality, whose value for a given apparent horizon depends on the scaling of the horizon’s null normal vectors. In particular, we introduce a gauge-invariant lower bound on the extremality by computing the smallest value that Booth and Fairhurst’s extremality parameter can take for any scaling. Using this lower bound, we conclude that the common horizons are at least moderately close to extremal just after they appear. Finally, following Lovelace et al (2008 Phys. Rev. D 78 084017), we construct quasiequilibrium binary-black hole initial data with ‘overspun’ marginally trapped surfaces with 8π S\\gt A. We show that the overspun surfaces are indeed superextremal: our lower bound on their Booth-Fairhurst extremality exceeds unity. However, we confirm that these superextremal surfaces are always surrounded by marginally outer trapped surfaces (i.e., by apparent horizons) with 8π S\\lt A. The extremality lower bound on the enclosing apparent horizon is always less than unity but can exceed the value for an extremal Kerr black hole.

Quality-control of an hourly rainfall dataset and climatology of extremes for the UK.

PubMed

Blenkinsop, Stephen; Lewis, Elizabeth; Chan, Steven C; Fowler, Hayley J

2017-02-01

Sub-daily rainfall extremes may be associated with flash flooding, particularly in urban areas but, compared with extremes on daily timescales, have been relatively little studied in many regions. This paper describes a new, hourly rainfall dataset for the UK based on ∼1600 rain gauges from three different data sources. This includes tipping bucket rain gauge data from the UK Environment Agency (EA), which has been collected for operational purposes, principally flood forecasting. Significant problems in the use of such data for the analysis of extreme events include the recording of accumulated totals, high frequency bucket tips, rain gauge recording errors and the non-operation of gauges. Given the prospect of an intensification of short-duration rainfall in a warming climate, the identification of such errors is essential if sub-daily datasets are to be used to better understand extreme events. We therefore first describe a series of procedures developed to quality control this new dataset. We then analyse ∼380 gauges with near-complete hourly records for 1992-2011 and map the seasonal climatology of intense rainfall based on UK hourly extremes using annual maxima, n-largest events and fixed threshold approaches. We find that the highest frequencies and intensities of hourly extreme rainfall occur during summer when the usual orographically defined pattern of extreme rainfall is replaced by a weaker, north-south pattern. A strong diurnal cycle in hourly extremes, peaking in late afternoon to early evening, is also identified in summer and, for some areas, in spring. This likely reflects the different mechanisms that generate sub-daily rainfall, with convection dominating during summer. The resulting quality-controlled hourly rainfall dataset will provide considerable value in several contexts, including the development of standard, globally applicable quality-control procedures for sub-daily data, the validation of the new generation of very high-resolution climate models and improved understanding of the drivers of extreme rainfall.

Quality‐control of an hourly rainfall dataset and climatology of extremes for the UK

PubMed Central

Lewis, Elizabeth; Chan, Steven C.; Fowler, Hayley J.

2016-01-01

ABSTRACT Sub‐daily rainfall extremes may be associated with flash flooding, particularly in urban areas but, compared with extremes on daily timescales, have been relatively little studied in many regions. This paper describes a new, hourly rainfall dataset for the UK based on ∼1600 rain gauges from three different data sources. This includes tipping bucket rain gauge data from the UK Environment Agency (EA), which has been collected for operational purposes, principally flood forecasting. Significant problems in the use of such data for the analysis of extreme events include the recording of accumulated totals, high frequency bucket tips, rain gauge recording errors and the non‐operation of gauges. Given the prospect of an intensification of short‐duration rainfall in a warming climate, the identification of such errors is essential if sub‐daily datasets are to be used to better understand extreme events. We therefore first describe a series of procedures developed to quality control this new dataset. We then analyse ∼380 gauges with near‐complete hourly records for 1992–2011 and map the seasonal climatology of intense rainfall based on UK hourly extremes using annual maxima, n‐largest events and fixed threshold approaches. We find that the highest frequencies and intensities of hourly extreme rainfall occur during summer when the usual orographically defined pattern of extreme rainfall is replaced by a weaker, north–south pattern. A strong diurnal cycle in hourly extremes, peaking in late afternoon to early evening, is also identified in summer and, for some areas, in spring. This likely reflects the different mechanisms that generate sub‐daily rainfall, with convection dominating during summer. The resulting quality‐controlled hourly rainfall dataset will provide considerable value in several contexts, including the development of standard, globally applicable quality‐control procedures for sub‐daily data, the validation of the new generation of very high‐resolution climate models and improved understanding of the drivers of extreme rainfall. PMID:28239235

The Joint Statistics of California Temperature and Precipitation as a Function of the Large-scale State of the Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

OBrien, J. P.; O'Brien, T. A.

2015-12-01

Single climatic extremes have a strong and disproportionate effect on society and the natural environment. However, the joint occurrence of two or more concurrent extremes has the potential to negatively impact these areas of life in ways far greater than any single event could. California, USA, home to nearly 40 million people and the largest agricultural producer in the United States, is currently experiencing an extreme drought, which has persisted for several years. While drought is commonly thought of in terms of only precipitation deficits, above average temperatures co-occurring with precipitation deficits greatly exacerbate drought conditions. The 2014 calendar year in California was characterized both by extremely low precipitation and extremely high temperatures, which has significantly deepened the already extreme drought conditions leading to severe water shortages and wildfires. While many studies have shown the statistics of 2014 temperature and precipitation anomalies as outliers, none have demonstrated a connection with large-scale, long-term climate trends, which would provide useful relationships for predicting the future trajectory of California climate and water resources. We focus on understanding non-stationarity in the joint distribution of California temperature and precipitation anomalies in terms of large-scale, low-frequency trends in climate such as global mean temperature rise and oscillatory indices such as ENSO and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation among others. We consider temperature and precipitation data from the seven distinct climate divisions in California and employ a novel, high-fidelity kernel density estimation method to directly infer the multivariate distribution of temperature and precipitation anomalies conditioned on the large-scale state of the climate. We show that the joint distributions and associated statistics of temperature and precipitation are non-stationary and vary regionally in California. Further, we show that recurrence intervals of extreme concurrent events vary as a function of time and of teleconnections. This research has implications for predicting and forecasting future temperature and precipitation anomalies, which is critically important for city, water, and agricultural planning in California.

Extreme ambient temperatures and cardiorespiratory emergency room visits: assessing risk by comorbid health conditions in a time series study

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Extreme ambient temperatures are an increasing public health concern. The aim of this study was to assess if persons with comorbid health conditions were at increased risk of adverse cardiorespiratory morbidity during temperature extremes. Methods A time series study design was applied to 292,666 and 562,738 emergency room (ER) visits for cardiovascular and respiratory diseases, respectively, that occurred in Toronto area hospitals between April 1st 2002 and March 31st 2010. Subgroups of persons with comorbid health conditions were identified. Relative risks (RRs) and their corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated using a Poisson regression model with distributed lag non-linear model, and were adjusted for the confounding influence of seasonality, relative humidity, day-of-the-week, outdoor air pollutants and daily influenza ER visits. Effect modification by comorbid health conditions was tested using the relative effect modification (REM) index. Results Stronger associations of cardiovascular disease ER visits were observed for persons with diabetes compared to persons without diabetes (REM = 1.12; 95% CI: 1.01 – 1.27) with exposure to the cumulative short term effect of extreme hot temperatures (i.e. 99th percentile of temperature distribution vs. 75th percentile). Effect modification was also found for comorbid respiratory disease (REM = 1.17; 95% CI: 1.02 – 1.44) and cancer (REM = 1.20; 95% CI: 1.02 – 1.49) on respiratory disease ER visits during short term hot temperature episodes. The effect of extreme cold temperatures (i.e. 1st percentile of temperature distribution vs. 25th percentile) on cardiovascular disease ER visits were stronger for individuals with comorbid cardiac diseases (REM = 1.47; 95% CI: 1.06 – 2.23) and kidney diseases (REM = 2.43; 95% CI: 1.59 – 8.83) compared to those without these conditions when cumulated over a two-week period. Conclusions The identification of those most susceptible to temperature extremes is important for public health officials to implement adaptation measures to manage the impact of extreme temperatures on population health. PMID:24484632

Exploring regional stakeholder needs and requirements in terms of Extreme Weather Event Attribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schwab, M.; Meinke, I.; Vanderlinden, J. P.; Touili, N.; Von Storch, H.

2015-12-01

Extreme event attribution has increasingly received attention in the scientific community. It may also serve decision-making at the regional level where much of the climate change impact mitigation takes place. Nevertheless, there is, to date, little known about the requirements of regional actors in terms of extreme event attribution. We have therefore analysed these at the example of regional decision-makers for climate change-related activities and/or concerned with storm surge risks at the German Baltic Sea and heat wave risks in the Greater Paris area. In order to explore if stakeholders find scientific knowledge from extreme event attribution useful and how this information might be relevant to their decision-making, we consulted a diverse set of actors engaged in the assessment, mitigation and communication of storm surge, heat wave, and climate change-related risks. Extreme event attribution knowledge was perceived to be most useful to public and political awareness-raising, but was of little or no relevance for the consulted stakeholders themselves. It was not acknowledged that it would support adaptation planning as sometimes argued in the literature. The consulted coastal protection, health, and urban adaptation planners rather needed reliable statements about possible future changes in extreme events than causal statements about past events. To enhance salience, a suitable product of event attribution should be linked to regional problems, vulnerabilities, and impacts of climate change. Given that the tolerance of uncertainty is rather low, most of the stakeholders also claimed that a suitable product of event attribution is to be received from a trusted "honest broker" and published rather later, but with smaller uncertainties than vice versa. Institutional mechanisms, like regional climate services, which enable and foster communication, translation and mediation across the boundaries between knowledge and action can help fulfill such requirements. This is of particular importance for extreme event attribution which is often understood as science producing complex and abstract information attached to large uncertainties. They can serve as an interface for creating the necessary mutual understanding by being in a continuous dialogue with both science and stakeholders.

Projections of future meteorological drought and wet periods in the Amazon

PubMed Central

Duffy, Philip B.; Brando, Paulo; Asner, Gregory P.; Field, Christopher B.

2015-01-01

Future intensification of Amazon drought resulting from climate change may cause increased fire activity, tree mortality, and emissions of carbon to the atmosphere across large areas of Amazonia. To provide a basis for addressing these issues, we examine properties of recent and future meteorological droughts in the Amazon in 35 climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). We find that the CMIP5 climate models, as a group, simulate important properties of historical meteorological droughts in the Amazon. In addition, this group of models reproduces observed relationships between Amazon precipitation and regional sea surface temperature anomalies in the tropical Pacific and the North Atlantic oceans. Assuming the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario for future drivers of climate change, the models project increases in the frequency and geographic extent of meteorological drought in the eastern Amazon, and the opposite in the West. For the region as a whole, the CMIP5 models suggest that the area affected by mild and severe meteorological drought will nearly double and triple, respectively, by 2100. Extremes of wetness are also projected to increase after 2040. Specifically, the frequency of periods of unusual wetness and the area affected by unusual wetness are projected to increase after 2040 in the Amazon as a whole, including in locations where annual mean precipitation is projected to decrease. Our analyses suggest that continued emissions of greenhouse gases will increase the likelihood of extreme events that have been shown to alter and degrade Amazonian forests. PMID:26460046

Distant Migration of Multiple Siliconomas in Lower Extremities following Breast Implant Rupture: Case Report.

PubMed

Oh, Joo Hyun; Song, Seung Yong; Lew, Dae Hyun; Lee, Dong Won

2016-10-01

Siliconoma from ruptured breast implants has been reported in multiple body sites, including but not limited to the breast parenchyma, axillary lymph nodes, upper arm, and even lower leg. In this regard, we report a rare case of distant silicone migration to the lower extremities after traumatic breast implant rupture. A 55-year-old Asian woman who received bilateral augmentation mammoplasty 20 years ago presented with ruptured breast implants from a car accident 2 years earlier. Magnetic resonance imaging confirmed intracapsular and extracapsular rupture of the right breast implant, showing "linguine sign." We removed the bilateral breast implants and performed capsulectomy and bilateral reduction mammoplasty using inverted-T incisions. The implant was confirmed as a smooth, silicone gel-filled mammary implant of 125 cm 3 by a Japanese manufacturer, Koken. During her regular follow-up outpatient visits, physical examination revealed 2.5- × 1.5-cm ill-defined, tender, subcutaneous nodules on both knees and 8.5- × 3.0-cm inflammatory changes in the inguinal area with persistent pain. Computed tomography showed no definite mass, but rather infiltrative, nonenhancing soft-tissue densities in the subcutaneous layers of the bilateral inguinal and knee areas. Surgical excision was performed, and pathologic findings confirmed variable vacuoles with foreign body reaction and fibrosis, consistent with siliconoma. It is important to acknowledge that siliconomas can be encountered in patients with ruptured breast implants, especially those manufactured decades ago. Our patient with masses as remote as the inguinal and knee areas is a prime example of how far siliconomas can migrate.

Distant Migration of Multiple Siliconomas in Lower Extremities following Breast Implant Rupture: Case Report

PubMed Central

Oh, Joo Hyun; Song, Seung Yong; Lew, Dae Hyun

2016-01-01

Summary: Siliconoma from ruptured breast implants has been reported in multiple body sites, including but not limited to the breast parenchyma, axillary lymph nodes, upper arm, and even lower leg. In this regard, we report a rare case of distant silicone migration to the lower extremities after traumatic breast implant rupture. A 55-year-old Asian woman who received bilateral augmentation mammoplasty 20 years ago presented with ruptured breast implants from a car accident 2 years earlier. Magnetic resonance imaging confirmed intracapsular and extracapsular rupture of the right breast implant, showing “linguine sign.” We removed the bilateral breast implants and performed capsulectomy and bilateral reduction mammoplasty using inverted-T incisions. The implant was confirmed as a smooth, silicone gel–filled mammary implant of 125 cm3 by a Japanese manufacturer, Koken. During her regular follow-up outpatient visits, physical examination revealed 2.5- × 1.5-cm ill-defined, tender, subcutaneous nodules on both knees and 8.5- × 3.0-cm inflammatory changes in the inguinal area with persistent pain. Computed tomography showed no definite mass, but rather infiltrative, nonenhancing soft-tissue densities in the subcutaneous layers of the bilateral inguinal and knee areas. Surgical excision was performed, and pathologic findings confirmed variable vacuoles with foreign body reaction and fibrosis, consistent with siliconoma. It is important to acknowledge that siliconomas can be encountered in patients with ruptured breast implants, especially those manufactured decades ago. Our patient with masses as remote as the inguinal and knee areas is a prime example of how far siliconomas can migrate. PMID:27826457

Unique method of tooth replacement in durophagous placodont marine reptiles, with new data on the dentition of Chinese taxa

PubMed Central

Neenan, James M; Li, Chun; Rieppel, Olivier; Bernardini, Federico; Tuniz, Claudio; Muscio, Giuseppe; Scheyer, Torsten M

2014-01-01

The placodonts of the Triassic period (˜252–201 mya) represent one of the earliest and most extreme specialisations to a durophagous diet of any known reptile group. Exceptionally enlarged crushing tooth plates on the maxilla, dentary and palatine cooperated to form functional crushing areas in the buccal cavity. However, the extreme size of these teeth, combined with the unusual way they occluded, constrained how replacement occurred. Using an extensive micro-computed tomographic dataset of 11 specimens that span all geographic regions and placodont morphotypes, tooth replacement patterns were investigated. In addition, the previously undescribed dental morphologies and formulae of Chinese taxa are described for the first time and incorporated into the analysis. Placodonts have a unique tooth replacement pattern and results follow a phylogenetic trend. The plesiomorphic Placodus species show many replacement teeth at various stages of growth, with little or no discernible pattern. On the other hand, the more derived cyamodontoids tend to have fewer replacement teeth growing at any one time, replacing teeth unilaterally and/or in functional units, thus maintaining at least one functional crushing area at all times. The highly derived placochelyids have fewer teeth and, as a result, only have one or two replacement teeth in the upper jaw. This supports previous suggestions that these taxa had an alternative diet to other placodonts. Importantly, all specimens show at least one replacement tooth growing at the most posterior palatine tooth plates, indicating increased wear at this point and thus the most efficient functional crushing area. PMID:24517163

Analysis of the dependence of extreme rainfalls

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Padoan, Simone; Ancey, Christophe; Parlange, Marc

2010-05-01

The aim of spatial analysis is to quantitatively describe the behavior of environmental phenomena such as precipitation levels, wind speed or daily temperatures. A number of generic approaches to spatial modeling have been developed[1], but these are not necessarily ideal for handling extremal aspects given their focus on mean process levels. The areal modelling of the extremes of a natural process observed at points in space is important in environmental statistics; for example, understanding extremal spatial rainfall is crucial in flood protection. In light of recent concerns over climate change, the use of robust mathematical and statistical methods for such analyses has grown in importance. Multivariate extreme value models and the class of maxstable processes [2] have a similar asymptotic motivation to the univariate Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution , but providing a general approach to modeling extreme processes incorporating temporal or spatial dependence. Statistical methods for max-stable processes and data analyses of practical problems are discussed by [3] and [4]. This work illustrates methods to the statistical modelling of spatial extremes and gives examples of their use by means of a real extremal data analysis of Switzerland precipitation levels. [1] Cressie, N. A. C. (1993). Statistics for Spatial Data. Wiley, New York. [2] de Haan, L and Ferreria A. (2006). Extreme Value Theory An Introduction. Springer, USA. [3] Padoan, S. A., Ribatet, M and Sisson, S. A. (2009). Likelihood-Based Inference for Max-Stable Processes. Journal of the American Statistical Association, Theory & Methods. In press. [4] Davison, A. C. and Gholamrezaee, M. (2009), Geostatistics of extremes. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B. To appear.

Microalgae on dimension stone of a medieval castle in Thuringia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hallmann, C.; Stannek, L.; Fritzlar, D.; Hoppert, M.

2012-04-01

Phototrophic microorganisms are important primary producers on hard rock substrata as well as on building facades. These eukaryotic microalgae and cyanobacteria, along with lichens, have also been recognized as important factors for rock weathering and stone decay. The rock substratum itself mostly provides extreme environmental conditions. Composition and diversity of sub-aeric phototrophic microbial communities is up to now poorly understood. Here we present a comparative study addressing the composition of algal biofilms on sandstone substrata based on the analysis of rDNA clone libraries from environmental samples and enrichment cultures. From a W-exposed, shaded wall area of a medieval castle ruin (Burg Gleichen, Thuringia, Germany cf. Hallmann et al., 2011), green algae like Prasiococcus, Prasiola and Elliptochloris could be retrieved. A ESE, sun-exposed wall section was colonized mainly by Apatococcus, Phyllosiphon and the lichen alga Trebouxia and Myrmecia. Accordingly, cyanobacterial communities show clear differences between both wall areas: the sun exposed area was dominated by Synechococcus-like organisms while on the W-exposed area cyanobacteria were almost absent. Just a few species, in particular Stichococcus-related strains, are ubiquitous in both areas. It is obvious that, apart from few generalists, different species colonize the wall areas that are situated in close vicinity, but provide different microclimatic conditions. These differences are discussed in view of biogenic weathering phenomena: certain microalgal species colonize crusts and scales along fracture planes and may contribute to rapid detachment and turnover of dimension stone surfaces. Hallmann, C., Fritzlar, D., Stannek, L., Hoppert, M. (2011) Ascomycete fungi on dimension stone of the "Burg Gleichen", Thuringia. Env. Earth Sci. 63, 1713-1722.

Comparison of five modelling techniques to predict the spatial distribution and abundance of seabirds

USGS Publications Warehouse

O'Connell, Allan F.; Gardner, Beth; Oppel, Steffen; Meirinho, Ana; Ramírez, Iván; Miller, Peter I.; Louzao, Maite

2012-01-01

Knowledge about the spatial distribution of seabirds at sea is important for conservation. During marine conservation planning, logistical constraints preclude seabird surveys covering the complete area of interest and spatial distribution of seabirds is frequently inferred from predictive statistical models. Increasingly complex models are available to relate the distribution and abundance of pelagic seabirds to environmental variables, but a comparison of their usefulness for delineating protected areas for seabirds is lacking. Here we compare the performance of five modelling techniques (generalised linear models, generalised additive models, Random Forest, boosted regression trees, and maximum entropy) to predict the distribution of Balearic Shearwaters (Puffinus mauretanicus) along the coast of the western Iberian Peninsula. We used ship transect data from 2004 to 2009 and 13 environmental variables to predict occurrence and density, and evaluated predictive performance of all models using spatially segregated test data. Predicted distribution varied among the different models, although predictive performance varied little. An ensemble prediction that combined results from all five techniques was robust and confirmed the existence of marine important bird areas for Balearic Shearwaters in Portugal and Spain. Our predictions suggested additional areas that would be of high priority for conservation and could be proposed as protected areas. Abundance data were extremely difficult to predict, and none of five modelling techniques provided a reliable prediction of spatial patterns. We advocate the use of ensemble modelling that combines the output of several methods to predict the spatial distribution of seabirds, and use these predictions to target separate surveys assessing the abundance of seabirds in areas of regular use.

On the monitoring and prediction of flash floods in small and medium-sized catchments - the EXTRUSO project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wiemann, Stefan; Eltner, Anette; Sardemann, Hannes; Spieler, Diana; Singer, Thomas; Thanh Luong, Thi; Janabi, Firas Al; Schütze, Niels; Bernard, Lars; Bernhofer, Christian; Maas, Hans-Gerd

2017-04-01

Flash floods regularly cause severe socio-economic damage worldwide. In parallel, climate change is very likely to increase the number of such events, due to an increasing frequency of extreme precipitation events (EASAC 2013). Whereas recent work primarily addresses the resilience of large catchment areas, the major impact of hydro-meteorological extremes caused by heavy precipitation is on small areas. Those are very difficult to observe and predict, due to sparse monitoring networks and only few means for hydro-meteorological modelling, especially in small catchment areas. The objective of the EXTRUSO project is to identify and implement appropriate means to close this gap by an interdisciplinary approach, combining comprehensive research expertise from meteorology, hydrology, photogrammetry and geoinformatics. The project targets innovative techniques for achieving spatio-temporal densified monitoring and simulations for the analysis, prediction and warning of local hydro-meteorological extreme events. The following four aspects are of particular interest: 1. The monitoring, analysis and combination of relevant hydro-meteorological parameters from various sources, including existing monitoring networks, ground radar, specific low-cost sensors and crowdsourcing. 2. The determination of relevant hydro-morphological parameters from different photogrammetric sensors (e.g. camera, laser scanner) and sensor platforms (e.g. UAV (unmanned aerial vehicle) and UWV (unmanned water vehicle)). 3. The continuous hydro-meteorological modelling of precipitation, soil moisture and water flows by means of conceptual and data-driven modelling. 4. The development of a collaborative, web-based service infrastructure as an information and communication point, especially in the case of an extreme event. There are three major applications for the planned information system: First, the warning of local extreme events for the population in potentially affected areas, second, the support for decision makers and emergency responders in the case of an event and, third, the development of open, interoperable tools for other researchers to be applied and further developed. The test area of the project is the Free State of Saxony (Germany) with a number of small and medium catchment areas. However, the whole system, comprising models, tools and sensor setups, is planned to be transferred and tested in other areas, within and outside Europe, as well. The team working on the project consists of eight researchers, including five PhD students and three postdocs. The EXTRUSO project is funded by the European Social Fund (ESF grant nr. 100270097) with a project duration of three years until June 2019. EASAC (2013): Trends in extreme weather events in Europe: implications for national and European Union adaption strategies. European Academies Science Advisory Council. Policy report 22, November 2013 The EXTRUSO project is funded by the European Social Fund (ESF), grant nr. 100270097

Influence of extreme weather disasters on global crop production.

PubMed

Lesk, Corey; Rowhani, Pedram; Ramankutty, Navin

2016-01-07

In recent years, several extreme weather disasters have partially or completely damaged regional crop production. While detailed regional accounts of the effects of extreme weather disasters exist, the global scale effects of droughts, floods and extreme temperature on crop production are yet to be quantified. Here we estimate for the first time, to our knowledge, national cereal production losses across the globe resulting from reported extreme weather disasters during 1964-2007. We show that droughts and extreme heat significantly reduced national cereal production by 9-10%, whereas our analysis could not identify an effect from floods and extreme cold in the national data. Analysing the underlying processes, we find that production losses due to droughts were associated with a reduction in both harvested area and yields, whereas extreme heat mainly decreased cereal yields. Furthermore, the results highlight ~7% greater production damage from more recent droughts and 8-11% more damage in developed countries than in developing ones. Our findings may help to guide agricultural priorities in international disaster risk reduction and adaptation efforts.

Handheld Chem/Biosensor Using Extreme Conformational Changes in Designed Binding Proteins to Enhance Surface Plasmon Resonance (SPR)

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-04-01

AFCEC-CX-TY-TR-2016-0007 HANDHELD CHEM/ BIOSENSOR USING EXTREME CONFORMATIONAL CHANGES IN DESIGNED BINDING PROTEINS TO ENHANCE SURFACE PLASMON...Include area code) 03/24/2016 Abstract 08/14/2015--03/31/2016 Handheld chem/ biosensor using extreme conformational changes in designed binding...Baltimore, Maryland on 17-21 April 2016. We propose the development of a highly sensitive handheld chem/ biosensor device using a novel class of engineered

The Top 10 Challenges in Extreme-Scale Visual Analytics

PubMed Central

Wong, Pak Chung; Shen, Han-Wei; Johnson, Christopher R.; Chen, Chaomei; Ross, Robert B.

2013-01-01

In this issue of CG&A, researchers share their R&D findings and results on applying visual analytics (VA) to extreme-scale data. Having surveyed these articles and other R&D in this field, we’ve identified what we consider the top challenges of extreme-scale VA. To cater to the magazine’s diverse readership, our discussion evaluates challenges in all areas of the field, including algorithms, hardware, software, engineering, and social issues. PMID:24489426

MDCT in the evaluation of skeletal trauma: principles, protocols, and clinical applications.

PubMed

Geijer, Mats; El-Khoury, Georges Y

2006-10-01

Multidetector computed tomography (MDCT) scanners have made volume imaging possible and are used extensively to study polytrauma patients, especially in the evaluation of the spine and peripheral skeleton. An MDCT scanner coupled with a modern workstation has become an essential diagnostic tool for any emergency department. Familiarity with the basic physical principles of MDCT such as projection data, section collimation, and beam collimation is important to achieve high-quality imaging while keeping unnecessary radiation to a minimum. After a polytrauma MDCT examination, images can be reconstructed to obtain different slice thickness, slice interval, fields of view, or reconstruction kernels. No additional scanning is needed for imaging the thoracolumbar spine or bony pelvis. High-quality multiplanar reformation (MPR) and three-dimensional (3-D) images can be created at the workstation using the volumetric data. However, MDCT is a high-dose examination, and care should be taken to use as low a dose as possible. In the musculoskeletal system, MDCT has long been used for evaluation of spinal and pelvic trauma; however, the frequency of its use in extremity trauma has been low. In the extremities, radiography seems to underestimate the extent and severity of injury, especially in complex areas such as the shoulder, elbow, wrist, knee, and ankle. MDCT in the extremities is helpful in fracture detection, evaluation, characterization, and treatment planning. The MPR images give excellent structural detail, and the 3-D images help in understanding the spatial relations, which is important for fracture classification and for preoperative planning. MDCT is also helpful in the follow-up of postoperative results, even in the presence of hardware. Tendon injuries can also be evaluated with MDCT.

Quantifying changes and influences on mottled duck density in Texas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ross, Beth; Haukos, David A.; Walther, Patrick

2018-01-01

Understanding the relative influence of environmental and intrinsic effects on populations is important for managing and conserving harvested species, especially those species inhabiting changing environments. Additionally, climate change can increase the uncertainty associated with management of species in these changing environments, making understanding factors affecting their populations even more important. Coastal ecosystems are particularly threatened by climate change; the combined effects of increasing severe weather events, sea level rise, and drought will likely have non-linear effects on coastal marsh wildlife species and their associated habitats. A species of conservation concern that persists in these coastal areas is the mottled duck (Anas fulvigula). Mottled ducks in the western Gulf Coast are approximately 50% below target abundance numbers established by the Gulf Coast Joint Venture for Texas and Louisiana, USA. Although evidence for declines in mottled duck abundance is apparent, specific causes of the decrease remain unknown. Our goals were to determine where the largest declines in mottled duck population were occurring along the system of Texas Gulf Coast National Wildlife Refuges and quantify the relative contribution of environmental and intrinsic effects on changes to relative population density. We modeled aerial survey data of mottled duck density along the Texas Gulf Coast from 1986–2015 to quantify effects of extreme weather events on an index to mottled duck density using the United States Climate Extremes Index and Palmer Drought Severity Index. Our results indicate that decreases in abundance are best described by an increase in days with extreme 1-day precipitation from June to November (hurricane season) and an increase in drought severity. Better understanding those portions of the life cycle affected by environmental conditions, and how to manage mottled duck habitat in conjunction with these events will likely be key to persistence of the species under future environmental conditions.

Enzyme Activity Dynamics in Response to Climate Change: 2011 Drought-Heat Wave

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Extreme weather events such as severe droughts and heat waves may have permanent consequences on soil quality and functioning in agroecosystems. The Southern High Plains (SHP) region of Texas, U.S., a large cotton producing area, experienced a historically extreme drought and heat wave during 2011,...

Zinc Oxide Nanomaterials for Biomedical Fluorescence Detection

PubMed Central

Hahm, Jong-in

2014-01-01

One-dimensional zinc oxide nanomaterials have been recently developed into novel, extremely effective, optical signal-enhancing bioplatforms. Their usefulness has been demonstrated in various biomedical fluorescence assays. Fluorescence is extensively used in biology and medicine as a sensitive and noninvasive detection method for tracking and analyzing biological molecules. Achieving high sensitivity via improving signal-to-noise ratio is of paramount importance in fluorescence-based, trace-level detection. Recent advances in the development of optically superior one-dimensional materials have contributed to this important biomedical area of detection. This review article will discuss major research developments that have so far been made in this emerging and exciting topical field. The discussion will cover a broad range of subjects including synthesis of zinc oxide nanorods (ZnO NRs), various properties differentiating them as suitable optical biodetection platforms, their demonstrated applicability in DNA and protein detection, and the nanomaterial characteristics relevant for biomolecular fluorescence enhancement. This review will then summarize the current status of ZnO NR-based biodetection and further elaborate future utility of ZnO NR platforms for advanced biomedical assays, based on their proven advantages. Lastly, present challenges experienced in this topical area will be identified and focal subject areas for future research will be suggested as well. PMID:24730276

Soil water repellency under stones, forest residue mulch and bare soil following wildfire.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martins, Martinho A. S.; Prats, Sérgio A.; van Keulen, Daan; Vieira, Diana C. S.; Silva, Flávio C.; Keizer, Jan J.; Verheijen, Frank G. A.

2017-04-01

Soil water repellency (SWR) is a physical property that is commonly defined as the aptitude of soil to resist wetting. It has been documented for a wide range of soil and vegetation types, and can vary with soil organic matter (SOM) content and type, soil texture, soil moisture content (SMC) and soil temperature. Fire can induce, enhance or destroy SWR and, therefore, lead to considerable changes in soil water infiltration and storage and increase soil erosion by water, thereby weakening soil quality. In Portugal, wildfires occur frequently and affect large areas, on average some 100000 ha per year, but over 300000 ha in extreme years such as 2003 and 2005. This can have important implications in geomorphological and hydrological processes, as evidenced by the strong and sometimes extreme responses in post-fire runoff and erosion reported from various parts of the world, including Portugal. Thereby, the application of mulches from various materials to cover burned areas has been found to be an efficient stabilization treatment. However, little is known about possible side effects on SWR, especially long term effects. Forest SWR is very heterogeneous, as a result of variation in proximity to trees/shrubs, litter type and thickness, cracks, roots, and stones. This study targeted the spatial heterogeneity of soil water repellency under eucalypt plantation, five years after a wildfire and forest residue mulching application. The main objectives of this work were: 1) to assess the long-term effect of mulching application on the strength and spatial heterogeneity of topsoil SWR, by comparing SWR on bare soil, under stones, and under mulching remains; 2) to assess SWR at 1 cm depth between O and Ah horizons. The soil surface results showed that untreated bare soil areas were slightly more water repellent than mulched areas. However, under stones there were no SWR differences between mulched and control areas. At 1 cm depth, there was a marked mulching effect on SWR, even 5 years after application.

Using Unplanned Fires to Help Suppressing Future Large Fires in Mediterranean Forests

PubMed Central

Regos, Adrián; Aquilué, Núria; Retana, Javier; De Cáceres, Miquel; Brotons, Lluís

2014-01-01

Despite the huge resources invested in fire suppression, the impact of wildfires has considerably increased across the Mediterranean region since the second half of the 20th century. Modulating fire suppression efforts in mild weather conditions is an appealing but hotly-debated strategy to use unplanned fires and associated fuel reduction to create opportunities for suppression of large fires in future adverse weather conditions. Using a spatially-explicit fire–succession model developed for Catalonia (Spain), we assessed this opportunistic policy by using two fire suppression strategies that reproduce how firefighters in extreme weather conditions exploit previous fire scars as firefighting opportunities. We designed scenarios by combining different levels of fire suppression efficiency and climatic severity for a 50-year period (2000–2050). An opportunistic fire suppression policy induced large-scale changes in fire regimes and decreased the area burnt under extreme climate conditions, but only accounted for up to 18–22% of the area to be burnt in reference scenarios. The area suppressed in adverse years tended to increase in scenarios with increasing amounts of area burnt during years dominated by mild weather. Climate change had counterintuitive effects on opportunistic fire suppression strategies. Climate warming increased the incidence of large fires under uncontrolled conditions but also indirectly increased opportunities for enhanced fire suppression. Therefore, to shift fire suppression opportunities from adverse to mild years, we would require a disproportionately large amount of area burnt in mild years. We conclude that the strategic planning of fire suppression resources has the potential to become an important cost-effective fuel-reduction strategy at large spatial scale. We do however suggest that this strategy should probably be accompanied by other fuel-reduction treatments applied at broad scales if large-scale changes in fire regimes are to be achieved, especially in the wider context of climate change. PMID:24727853

Using unplanned fires to help suppressing future large fires in Mediterranean forests.

PubMed

Regos, Adrián; Aquilué, Núria; Retana, Javier; De Cáceres, Miquel; Brotons, Lluís

2014-01-01

Despite the huge resources invested in fire suppression, the impact of wildfires has considerably increased across the Mediterranean region since the second half of the 20th century. Modulating fire suppression efforts in mild weather conditions is an appealing but hotly-debated strategy to use unplanned fires and associated fuel reduction to create opportunities for suppression of large fires in future adverse weather conditions. Using a spatially-explicit fire-succession model developed for Catalonia (Spain), we assessed this opportunistic policy by using two fire suppression strategies that reproduce how firefighters in extreme weather conditions exploit previous fire scars as firefighting opportunities. We designed scenarios by combining different levels of fire suppression efficiency and climatic severity for a 50-year period (2000-2050). An opportunistic fire suppression policy induced large-scale changes in fire regimes and decreased the area burnt under extreme climate conditions, but only accounted for up to 18-22% of the area to be burnt in reference scenarios. The area suppressed in adverse years tended to increase in scenarios with increasing amounts of area burnt during years dominated by mild weather. Climate change had counterintuitive effects on opportunistic fire suppression strategies. Climate warming increased the incidence of large fires under uncontrolled conditions but also indirectly increased opportunities for enhanced fire suppression. Therefore, to shift fire suppression opportunities from adverse to mild years, we would require a disproportionately large amount of area burnt in mild years. We conclude that the strategic planning of fire suppression resources has the potential to become an important cost-effective fuel-reduction strategy at large spatial scale. We do however suggest that this strategy should probably be accompanied by other fuel-reduction treatments applied at broad scales if large-scale changes in fire regimes are to be achieved, especially in the wider context of climate change.

Application of RFID technology-upper extremity rehabilitation training.

PubMed

Chen, Chih-Chen; Chen, Yu-Luen; Chen, Shih-Ching

2016-01-01

[Purpose] Upper extremity rehabilitation after an injury is very important. This study proposes radio frequency identification (RFID) technology to improve and enhance the effectiveness of the upper extremity rehabilitation. [Subjects and Methods] People use their upper extremities to conduct daily activities. When recovering from injuries, many patients neglect the importance of rehabilitation, which results in degraded function. This study recorded the training process using the traditional rehabilitation hand gliding cart with a RFID reader, RFID tags in the panel, and a servo host computer. [Results] Clinical evidence, time taken to achieve a full score, counts of missing the specified spots, and Brunnstrom stage of aided recovery, the proximal part of the upper extremity show that the RFID-based upper extremity training significantly and reduce negative impacts of the disability in daily life and activities. [Conclusion] This study combined a hand-gliding cart with an RFID reader, and when patients moved the cart, the movement could be observed via the activated RFID tags. The training data was collected and quantified for a better understanding of the recovery status of the patients. Each of the participating patients made progress as expected.

Impact of the Extreme Warming of 2012 on Shelfbreak Frontal Structure North of Cape Hatteras

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gawarkiewickz, G.

2014-12-01

Continental shelf circulation north of Cape Hatteras is complex, with southward flowing Middle Atlantic Bight shelf water intersecting the Gulf Stream and subducting offshore into the Gulf Stream. In May, 2012, a cruise was conducted in order to study the shelf circulation and acoustic propagation through fish schools in the area. An important aspect of the study was to use Autonomous Underwater Vehicles to map fish schools with a sidescan sonar. High-resolution hydrographic surveys to map the continental shelf water masses and shelfbreak frontal structure were sampled to relate oceanographic conditions to the fish school distributions. The cold pool water mass over the continental shelf in May 2012 was extremely warm, with temperature anomalies of up to 5 Degrees C relative to observations from the same area in May, 1996. The normal cross-shelf temperature gradients within the shelfbreak front were not present because of the warming. As a result, the shelf density field was much more buoyant than usual, which led to an accelerated shelfbreak jet. Moored velocity measurements at the 60 m isobath recorded alongshelf flow of as much as 0.6 m/s. The anticipated fish species were not observed over the continental shelf. Some comments on the forcing leading to the large scale warming will be presented, along with a brief discussion of the impact of the warming on the marine ecosystem in the northeast U.S.

The development of a non-linear autoregressive model with exogenous input (NARX) to model climate-water clarity relationships: reconstructing a historical water clarity index for the coastal waters of the southeastern USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Cameron C.; Sheridan, Scott C.; Barnes, Brian B.; Hu, Chuanmin; Pirhalla, Douglas E.; Ransibrahmanakul, Varis; Shein, Karsten

2017-10-01

The coastal waters of the southeastern USA contain important protected habitats and natural resources that are vulnerable to climate variability and singular weather events. Water clarity, strongly affected by atmospheric events, is linked to substantial environmental impacts throughout the region. To assess this relationship over the long-term, this study uses an artificial neural network-based time series modeling technique known as non-linear autoregressive models with exogenous input (NARX models) to explore the relationship between climate and a water clarity index (KDI) in this area and to reconstruct this index over a 66-year period. Results show that synoptic-scale circulation patterns, weather types, and precipitation all play roles in impacting water clarity to varying degrees in each region of the larger domain. In particular, turbid water is associated with transitional weather and cyclonic circulation in much of the study region. Overall, NARX model performance also varies—regionally, seasonally and interannually—with wintertime estimates of KDI along the West Florida Shelf correlating to the actual KDI at r > 0.70. Periods of extreme (high) KDI in this area coincide with notable El Niño events. An upward trend in extreme KDI events from 1948 to 2013 is also present across much of the Florida Gulf coast.

The family as a determinant of stunting in children living in conditions of extreme poverty: a case-control study

PubMed Central

Reyes, Hortensia; Pérez-Cuevas, Ricardo; Sandoval, Araceli; Castillo, Raúl; Santos, José Ignacio; Doubova, Svetlana V; Gutiérrez, Gonzalo

2004-01-01

Background Malnutrition in children can be a consequence of unfavourable socioeconomic conditions. However, some families maintain adequate nutritional status in their children despite living in poverty. The aim of this study was to ascertain whether family-related factors are determinants of stunting in young Mexican children living in extreme poverty, and whether these factors differ between rural or urban contexts. Methods A case-control study was conducted in one rural and one urban extreme poverty level areas in Mexico. Cases comprised stunted children aged between 6 and 23 months. Controls were well-nourished children. Independent variables were defined in five dimensions: family characteristics; family income; household allocation of resources and family organisation; social networks; and child health care. Information was collected from 108 cases and 139 controls in the rural area and from 198 cases and 211 controls in the urban area. Statistical analysis was carried out separately for each area; unconditional multiple logistic regression analyses were performed to obtain the best explanatory model for stunting. Results In the rural area, a greater risk of stunting was associated with father's occupation as farmer and the presence of family networks for child care. The greatest protective effect was found in children cared for exclusively by their mothers. In the urban area, risk factors for stunting were father with unstable job, presence of small social networks, low rate of attendance to the Well Child Program activities, breast-feeding longer than six months, and two variables within the family characteristics dimension (longer duration of parents' union and migration from rural to urban area). Conclusions This study suggests the influence of the family on the nutritional status of children under two years of age living in extreme poverty areas. Factors associated with stunting were different in rural and urban communities. Therefore, developing and implementing health programs to tackle malnutrition should take into account such differences that are consequence of the social, economic, and cultural contexts in which the family lives. PMID:15571622

Contributions of different bias-correction methods and reference meteorological forcing data sets to uncertainty in projected temperature and precipitation extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iizumi, Toshichika; Takikawa, Hiroki; Hirabayashi, Yukiko; Hanasaki, Naota; Nishimori, Motoki

2017-08-01

The use of different bias-correction methods and global retrospective meteorological forcing data sets as the reference climatology in the bias correction of general circulation model (GCM) daily data is a known source of uncertainty in projected climate extremes and their impacts. Despite their importance, limited attention has been given to these uncertainty sources. We compare 27 projected temperature and precipitation indices over 22 regions of the world (including the global land area) in the near (2021-2060) and distant future (2061-2100), calculated using four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), five GCMs, two bias-correction methods, and three reference forcing data sets. To widen the variety of forcing data sets, we developed a new forcing data set, S14FD, and incorporated it into this study. The results show that S14FD is more accurate than other forcing data sets in representing the observed temperature and precipitation extremes in recent decades (1961-2000 and 1979-2008). The use of different bias-correction methods and forcing data sets contributes more to the total uncertainty in the projected precipitation index values in both the near and distant future than the use of different GCMs and RCPs. However, GCM appears to be the most dominant uncertainty source for projected temperature index values in the near future, and RCP is the most dominant source in the distant future. Our findings encourage climate risk assessments, especially those related to precipitation extremes, to employ multiple bias-correction methods and forcing data sets in addition to using different GCMs and RCPs.

Observed Hydrologic Impacts of Landfalling Atmospheric Rivers in the Salt and Verde River Basins of Arizona, United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Demaria, Eleonora M. C.; Dominguez, Francina; Hu, Huancui; von Glinski, Gerd; Robles, Marcos; Skindlov, Jonathan; Walter, James

2017-12-01

Atmospheric rivers (ARs), narrow atmospheric water vapor corridors, can contribute substantially to winter precipitation in the semiarid Southwest U.S., where natural ecosystems and humans compete for over-allocated water resources. We investigate the hydrologic impacts of 122 ARs that occurred in the Salt and Verde river basins in northeastern Arizona during the cold seasons from 1979 to 2009. We focus on the relationship between precipitation, snow water equivalent (SWE), soil moisture, and extreme flooding. During the cold season (October through March) ARs contribute an average of 25%/29% of total seasonal precipitation for the Salt/Verde river basins, respectively. However, they contribute disproportionately to total heavy precipitation and account for 64%/72% of extreme total daily precipitation (exceeding the 98th percentile). Excess precipitation during AR occurrences contributes to snow accumulation; on the other hand, warmer than normal temperatures during AR landfallings are linked to rain-on-snow processes, an increase in the basins' area contributing to runoff generation, and higher melting lines. Although not all AR events are linked to extreme flooding in the basins, they do account for larger runoff coefficients. On average, ARs generate 43% of the annual maximum flows for the period studied, with 25% of the events exceeding the 10 year return period. Our analysis shows that the devastating 1993 flooding event in the region was caused by AR events. These results illustrate the importance of AR activity on the hydrology of inland semiarid regions: ARs are critical for water resources, but they can also lead to extreme flooding that affects infrastructure and human activities.

Assessment of the effects of multiple extreme floods on flow and transport processes under competing flood protection and environmental management strategies.

PubMed

Tu, Tongbi; Carr, Kara J; Ercan, Ali; Trinh, Toan; Kavvas, M Levent; Nosacka, John

2017-12-31

Extreme floods are regarded as one of the most catastrophic natural hazards and can result in significant morphological changes induced by pronounced sediment erosion and deposition processes over the landscape. However, the effects of extreme floods of different return intervals on the floodplain and river channel morphological evolution with the associated sediment transport processes are not well explored. Furthermore, different basin management action plans, such as engineering structure modifications, may also greatly affect the flood inundation, sediment transport, solute transport and morphological processes within extreme flood events. In this study, a coupled two-dimensional hydrodynamic, sediment transport and morphological model is applied to evaluate the impact of different river and basin management strategies on the flood inundation, sediment transport dynamics and morphological changes within extreme flood events of different magnitudes. The 10-year, 50-year, 100-year and 200-year floods are evaluated for the Lower Cache Creek system in California under existing condition and a potential future modification scenario. Modeling results showed that select locations of flood inundation within the study area tend to experience larger inundation depth and more sediment is likely to be trapped in the study area under potential modification scenario. The proposed two dimensional flow and sediment transport modeling approach implemented with a variety of inflow conditions can provide guidance to decision-makers when considering implementation of potential modification plans, especially as they relate to competing management strategies of large water bodies, such as the modeling area in this study. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Potentially dangerous 24-hour rainfall in the Provadiyska vally system at the end of the 20th and early 21st Centuries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vladev, Dimitar

2018-03-01

Extreme rainfalls are of paramount importance for the formation of river springs and, consequently, the occurrence of spills and floods. The article presents the results of a case study of the potentially dangerous 24-hour eruptions in the Provadiyska valley system from the end of the 20th and the beginning of the 21st century. Particular attention is paid to the morphometric parameters and the configuration of the river-valley supply network of the Provadiyska river. On this basis, there are defined areas in which there are favorable conditions for forming high river waves.

[Eating disorders].

PubMed

Miyake, Yoshie; Okamoto, Yuri; Jinnin, Ran; Shishida, Kazuhiro; Okamoto, Yasumasa

2015-02-01

Eating disorders are characterized by aberrant patterns of eating behavior, including such symptoms as extreme restriction of food intake or binge eating, and severe disturbances in the perception of body shape and weight, as well as a drive for thinness and obsessive fears of becoming fat. Eating disorder is an important cause for physical and psychosocial morbidity in young women. Patients with eating disorders have a deficit in the cognitive process and functional abnormalities in the brain system. Recently, brain-imaging techniques have been used to identify specific brain areas that function abnormally in patients with eating disorders. We have discussed the clinical and cognitive aspects of eating disorders and summarized neuroimaging studies of eating disorders.

A cognitive neuroscience account of posttraumatic stress disorder and its treatment.

PubMed

Brewin, C R

2001-04-01

Recent research in the areas of animal conditioning, the neural systems underlying emotion and memory, and the effect of fear on these systems is reviewed. This evidence points to an important distinction between hippocampally-dependent and non-hippocampally-dependent forms of memory that are differentially affected by extreme stress. The cognitive science perspective is related to a recent model of posttraumatic stress disorder, dual representation theory, that also posits separate memory systems underlying vivid reexperiencing versus ordinary autobiographical memories of trauma. This view is compared with other accounts in the literature of traumatic memory processes in PTSD, and the contrasting implications for therapy are discussed.

Impacts of extreme events of drought and flood on local communities of Amazon basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Borma, L. D.; Roballo, S.; Zauner, M.; Nascimento, V. F.

2013-05-01

The analysis of drought events of 1997/98, 2005 and 2010 in terms of discharge anomalies in the Amazon region confirmed previous findings, such as: a) the influence of the El Niño in more than one hydrological year; b) the increase of the influence of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation of 1998, 2005 and 2010 drought events; c) the low levels of discharge observed in the 2010 drought are attributed to the association of discharge anomalies of the northern and southern tributaries of the Amazon river, and d) the 2010 drought lasted around 1 month (August to November) more than the other drought events analized here. The riverine communities located along the river banks of Solimões/Amazonas suit their economic activities to the oscillation of the water level. In general, low water periods favor the access to important sources of food such as fish and livestock, still allowing crop cultivation on fertile agricultural areas of the floodplain. Conversely, periods of drought increases the difficulties of transport and drinking water supply. During the high water, access to the main food supply (described above) are greatly hampered. However, the floods are recognized as an importance process of natural fertilization. Thus, despite the political, social and economic shortcomings, the local community has, since the pre-colonial period, learned to get the best of each season, providing local, regional and national markets with varzea products. During periods of extreme weather, however, the advantages of each season appear to be reduced, and the drawbacks increased. In fact, during flooding extremes, the access to primary sources of food is hampered by a long period of time and families find themselves forced to leave their homes, eventually losing them. Analysis of flow data to the extreme flooding of 2009, indicate a period of about 6 months of positive anomalies discharge (occurring mainly during high water). At the same time, Civil Defense data points to a contingent of about 50% of rural homeless during this event. On the ther side, during the extreme droughts, crops and cattle are likely to perish due to drought. The prolonged dry season threatens local ichthyofauna, promoting an increase in fish mortality. In 1997/98 and 2005 episodes were recorded about 3 months of negative anomalies of discharge, while in 2010, there were about 4 months of negative anomalies during the low water period. According to the data obtained from the Civil Defense, flood events would be more impactful to the local community than the drought ones. However, the absence of quantitative indicators hinders a more precise analysis of the real impacts of drought and flood events in the region. In fact, during the dry season two aspects of extreme importance need to be better addressed: i) the fact that the population of one of the wettest regions of the planet does not have a good water supply for human being, and ii) what are the impacts of extreme drought on the cycle of reproduction of species of local fish fauna?

A novel thermophilic methane-oxidizing bacteria from thermal springs of Uzon volcano caldera, Kamchatka

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dvorianchikova, E.; Kizilova, A.; Kravchenko, I.; Galchenko, V.

2012-04-01

Methane is a radiatively active trace gas, contributing significantly to the greenhouse effect. It is 26 times more efficient in absorbing and re-emitting infrared radiation than carbon dioxide. Methanotrophs play an essential role in the global carbon cycle by oxidizing 50-75% of the biologically produced methane in situ, before it reaches the atmosphere. Methane-oxidizing bacteria are isolated from the various ecosystems and described at present. Their biology, processes of methane oxidation in fresh-water, marsh, soil and marine habitats are investigated quite well. Processes of methane oxidation in places with extreme physical and chemical conditions (high or low , salinity and temperature values) are studied in much smaller degree. Such ecosystems occupy a considerable part of the Earth's surface. The existence of aerobic methanotrophs inhabiting extreme environments has been verified so far by cultivation experiments and direct detection of methane monooxygenase genes specific to almost all aerobic methanotrophs. Thermophilic and thermotolerant methanotrophs have been isolated from such extreme environments and consist of the gammaproteobacterial (type I) genera Methylothermus, Methylocaldum, Methylococcus and the verrucomicrobial genus Methylacidiphilum. Uzon volcano caldera is a unique area, where volcanic processes still happen today. Hydrothermal springs of the area are extreme ecosystems which microbial communities represent considerable scientific interest of fundamental and applied character. A thermophilic aerobic methane-oxidising bacterium was isolated from a sediment sample from a hot spring (56.1; 5.3) of Uzon caldera. Strain S21 was isolated using mineral low salt medium. The headspace gas was composed of CH4, Ar, CO2, and O2 (40:40:15:5). The temperature of cultivation was 50, pH 5.5. Cells of strain S21 in exponential and early-stationary phase were coccoid bacilli, about 1 μm in diameter, and motile with a single polar flagellum. PCR and molecular cloning of a pmoA gene fragment have shown that strain S21 was moderately related to the genus Methylothermus; the closest organism is Methylothermus subterraneus. The further studying of strain S21 will expand our knowledge of this group of organisms, important from the ecological point of view.

Projections of extreme storm surge levels along Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vousdoukas, Michalis I.; Voukouvalas, Evangelos; Annunziato, Alessandro; Giardino, Alessio; Feyen, Luc

2016-11-01

Storm surges are an important coastal hazard component and it is unknown how they will evolve along Europe's coastline in view of climate change. In the present contribution, the hydrodynamic model Delft3D-Flow was forced by surface wind and atmospheric pressure fields from a 8-member climate model ensemble in order to evaluate dynamics in storm surge levels (SSL) along the European coastline (1) for the baseline period 1970-2000; and (2) during this century under the Representative Concentration Pathways RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Validation simulations, spanning from 2008 to 2014 and driven by ERA-Interim atmospheric forcing, indicated good predictive skill (0.06 m < RMSE < 0.29 m and 10 % < RMSE < 29 % for 110 tidal gauge stations across Europe). Peak-over-threshold extreme value analysis was applied to estimate SSL values for different return periods, and changes of future SSL were obtained from all models to obtain the final ensemble. Values for most scenarios and return periods indicate a projected increase in SSL at several locations along the North European coastline, which is more prominent for RCP8.5 and shows an increasing tendency towards the end of the century for both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Projected SSL changes along the European coastal areas south of 50°N show minimal change or even a small decrease, with the exception of RCP8.5 under which a moderate increase is projected towards the end of the century. The present findings indicate that the anticipated increase in extreme total water levels due to relative sea level rise (RSLR), can be further enforced by an increase of the extreme SSL, which can exceed 30 % of the RSLR, especially for the high return periods and pathway RCP8.5. This implies that the combined effect could increase even further anticipated impacts of climate change for certain European areas and highlights the necessity for timely coastal adaptation and protection measures. The dataset is publicly available under this link: http://data.jrc.ec.europa.eu/collection/LISCOAST.

Black swans, power laws, and dragon-kings: Earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, landslides, wildfires, floods, and SOC models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sachs, M. K.; Yoder, M. R.; Turcotte, D. L.; Rundle, J. B.; Malamud, B. D.

2012-05-01

Extreme events that change global society have been characterized as black swans. The frequency-size distributions of many natural phenomena are often well approximated by power-law (fractal) distributions. An important question is whether the probability of extreme events can be estimated by extrapolating the power-law distributions. Events that exceed these extrapolations have been characterized as dragon-kings. In this paper we consider extreme events for earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, wildfires, landslides and floods. We also consider the extreme event behavior of three models that exhibit self-organized criticality (SOC): the slider-block, forest-fire, and sand-pile models. Since extrapolations using power-laws are widely used in probabilistic hazard assessment, the occurrence of dragon-king events have important practical implications.

Do climate extreme events foster violent civil conflicts? A coincidence analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich; Donges, Jonathan F.; Donner, Reik V.

2014-05-01

Civil conflicts promoted by adverse environmental conditions represent one of the most important potential feedbacks in the global socio-environmental nexus. While the role of climate extremes as a triggering factor is often discussed, no consensus is yet reached about the cause-and-effect relation in the observed data record. Here we present results of a rigorous statistical coincidence analysis based on the Munich Re Inc. extreme events database and the Uppsala conflict data program. We report evidence for statistically significant synchronicity between climate extremes with high economic impact and violent conflicts for various regions, although no coherent global signal emerges from our analysis. Our results indicate the importance of regional vulnerability and might aid to identify hot-spot regions for potential climate-triggered violent social conflicts.

Increase of Elderly Population in the Rainstorm Hazard Areas of China.

PubMed

Liang, Pujun; Xu, Wei; Ma, Yunjia; Zhao, Xiujuan; Qin, Lianjie

2017-08-26

In light of global warming, increased extreme precipitation events have enlarged the population exposed to floods to some extent. Extreme precipitation risk assessments are of great significance in China and allow for the response to climate change and mitigation of risks to the population. China is one of the countries most influenced by climate change and has unique national population conditions. The influence of extreme precipitation depends on the degree of exposure and vulnerability of the population. Accurate assessments of the population exposed to rising rainstorm trends are crucial to mapping extreme precipitation risks. Studying the population exposed to rainstorm hazard areas (RSHA) at the microscale is extremely urgent, due to the local characteristics of extreme precipitation events and regional diversity of the population. The spatial distribution of population density was mapped based on the national population census data from China in 1990, 2000 and 2010. RSHA were also identified using precipitation data from 1975-2015 in China, and the rainstorm tendency values were mapped using GIS in this paper. The spatial characteristics of the rainstorm tendencies were then analyzed. Finally, changes in the population in the RSHA are discussed. The results show that the extreme precipitation trends are increasing in southeastern China. From 1990 to 2010, the population in RSHA increased by 110 million, at a rate of 14.6%. The elderly in the region increased by 38 million at a rate of 86.4%. Studying the size of the population exposed to rainstorm hazards at the county scale can provide scientific evidence for developing disaster prevention and mitigation strategies from the bottom up.

Black Swan Tropical Cyclones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Emanuel, K.; Lin, N.

2012-12-01

Virtually all assessments of tropical cyclone risk are based on historical records, which are limited to a few hundred years at most. Yet stronger TCs may occur in the future and at places that have not been affected historically. Such events lie outside the realm of historically based expectations and may have extreme impacts. Their occurrences are also often made explainable after the fact (e.g., Hurricane Katrina). We nickname such potential future TCs, characterized by rarity, extreme impact, and retrospective predictability, "black swans" (Nassim Nicholas Taleb, 2007). As, by definition, black swan TCs have yet to happen, statistical methods that solely rely on historical track data cannot predict their occurrence. Global climate models lack the capability to predict intense storms, even with a resolution as high as 14 km (Emanuel et al. 2010). Also, most dynamic downscaling methods (e.g., Bender et al. 2010) are still limited in horizontal resolution and are too expensive to implement to generate enough events to include rare ones. In this study, we apply a simpler statistical/deterministic hurricane model (Emanuel et al. 2006) to simulate large numbers of synthetic storms under a given (observed or projected) climate condition. The method has been shown to generate realistic extremes in various basins (Emanuel et al. 2008 and 2010). We also apply a hydrodynamic model (ADCIRC; Luettich et al. 1992) to simulate the storm surges generated by these storms. We then search for black swan TCs, in terms of the joint wind and surge damage potential, in the generated large databases. Heavy rainfall is another important TC hazard and will be considered in a future study. We focus on three areas: Tampa Bay in the U.S., the Persian Gulf, and Darwin in Australia. Tampa Bay is highly vulnerable to storm surge as it is surrounded by shallow water and low-lying lands, much of which may be inundated by a storm tide of 6 m. High surges are generated by storms with a broad spectrum of characteristics in our synthetic database, although no large surge has been recorded historically as only one moderate storm passed by the area. Tampa black swans are identified as those that move northward parallel to the west Florida coast with high intensities and resonant with the Florida-shelf edge waves to generate extreme surges up to 10 m in Tampa Bay. The Arabian Sea area has sea surface temperatures warm enough to support the development of severe TCs, but TC development has been limited by low humidity and high wind shear, and only one recorded TC (super cyclonic storm Gonu in 2007) moved close to the Persian Gulf, making landfall in Oman and Iran. Our analysis shows that black swan TCs can originate within the Persian Gulf and make landfall with high intensities in populous places; extreme surges over 9 m for Abu Dubai and Doha and over 7 m for Dubai are possible. Darwin experienced immense devastation from Cyclone Tracy of 1974, but the damage was mainly due to the strong winds (the surge was only about 1.6 m). Our analysis includes extremely intense black swan TCs that make landfall just south of Darwin, generating surges above 10 m; these results may prompt the city to reconsider its TC risk. We are currently analyzing the join probability of the extreme wind and surge of these black swan TCs to more clearly assess their full damage potentials.

Climate change impacts on rainfall extremes and urban drainage: state-of-the-art review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Willems, Patrick; Olsson, Jonas; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten; Beecham, Simon; Pathirana, Assela; Bülow Gregersen, Ida; Madsen, Henrik; Nguyen, Van-Thanh-Van

2013-04-01

Under the umbrella of the IWA/IAHR Joint Committee on Urban Drainage, the International Working Group on Urban Rainfall (IGUR) has reviewed existing methodologies for the analysis of long-term historical and future trends in urban rainfall extremes and their effects on urban drainage systems, due to anthropogenic climate change. Current practises have several limitations and pitfalls, which are important to be considered by trend or climate change impact modellers and users of trend/impact results. The review considers the following aspects: Analysis of long-term historical trends due to anthropogenic climate change: influence of data limitation, instrumental or environmental changes, interannual variations and longer term climate oscillations on trend testing results. Analysis of long-term future trends due to anthropogenic climate change: by complementing empirical historical data with the results from physically-based climate models, dynamic downscaling to the urban scale by means of Limited Area Models (LAMs) including explicitly small-scale cloud processes; validation of RCM/GCM results for local conditions accounting for natural variability, limited length of the available time series, difference in spatial scales, and influence of climate oscillations; statistical downscaling methods combined with bias correction; uncertainties associated with the climate forcing scenarios, the climate models, the initial states and the statistical downscaling step; uncertainties in the impact models (e.g. runoff peak flows, flood or surcharge frequencies, and CSO frequencies and volumes), including the impacts of more extreme conditions than considered during impact model calibration and validation. Implications for urban drainage infrastructure design and management: upgrading of the urban drainage system as part of a program of routine and scheduled replacement and renewal of aging infrastructure; how to account for the uncertainties; flexible and sustainable solutions; adaptive approach that provides inherent flexibility and reversibility and avoids closing off options; importance of active learning. References: Willems, P., Olsson, J., Arnbjerg-Nielsen, K., Beecham, S., Pathirana, A., Bülow Gregersen, I., Madsen, H., Nguyen, V-T-V. (2012). Impacts of climate change on rainfall extremes and urban drainage. IWA Publishing, 252 p., Paperback Print ISBN 9781780401256; Ebook ISBN 9781780401263 Willems, P., Arnbjerg-Nielsen, K., Olsson, J., Nguyen, V.T.V. (2012), 'Climate change impact assessment on urban rainfall extremes and urban drainage: methods and shortcomings', Atmospheric Research, 103, 106-118

[Case of imported scrub typhus contracted in Myanmar].

PubMed

Matsumura, Yasufumi; Shimizu, Tsunehiro

2009-05-01

Scrub typhus is widespread in rural south and southeastern Asia and the western Pacific. The scrub typhus incidence is the highest among vector-borne diseases in Japan, but imported cases are extremely rare. A 49-year-old man admitted for persistent fever, headache, and rash after returning from Myanmar had been exposed to mosquito and tick bites while doing a 12-day forest inventory in Myanmar. On admission, he had a generalized maculopapular rash but no apparent eschars characteristic of scrub typhus. Blood examination and abdominal ultrasonography showed elevated liver enzymes, thrombocytopenia, and hepatosplenomegaly. Repeated blood smears and blood cultures were negative for malaria infection and bacteremia. Dengue fever was denied by both PCR and serology. The patient deteriorated on the ninth day and suffered complications of rhabdomyolysis, pneumonia, and enteritis. Based on a tentative diagnosis of typhoid fever or rickettiosis, we administratered ceftriaxone and minocycline, which dramatically reduced clinical signs and symptoms. After discharge on day 19, immunofluorescence assay showed significantly increased antibodies for Orienta tsutsugamushi serotype Gilliam, first discovered in Myanmar. All serological results were negative for other rickettioses, leptospirosis and Q fever. Given the many travelers from Japan visiting endemic scrub typhus areas, we must recognize cases of imported scrub typhus among those travelers with fever and rash returning from endemic areas.

Sustainability of Smart Cities under Climate Variability and Climate Change in India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, R.; Mishra, V.

2015-12-01

India has experienced a rapid urbanization during the past few decades. On the other hand, many parts of the country witnessed significant changes in mean and extreme climate related to precipitation and temperature. Here we analysed urban residence using the remotely sensed data considering the susceptibility of Indian cities to droughts and heat waves. We selected recently announced 100 urban areas that are planned to be developed as smart cities in future. Gridded precipitation data were used to compute SPEI values for frequency and ascertain the extent of droughts in the cities. The heat wave analysis was done in two phases. First phase included analysis using Heat Wave Magnitude Index (HWMI) to determine the intensity of such extreme events. In the second phase, Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect across different ecological configuration was studied for the cities. Land Surface Temperature (LST), urban extent map from MODIS and land-cover maps were used to study the UHI effect. For this, the urban extents were divided into urban core and sub-urban zones based on built up regions in the cities. The urban to rural temperature difference is analysed considering the ecological configuration in the region. The selected cities were categorised based on the biome features surrounding them. The results suggest aggravated condition in the urban space in India with reference to extreme events. For instance, extreme heat waves have substantially increased in India during the last few decades. In many urban areas, the UHI effect contributed a significant warming due to increased urbanization. We estimated projected changes in droughts and heat waves in the selected urban areas using the dynamically downscaled data from the region climate models. Our results suggest that a majority of urban areas are projected to face an elevated risk of temperature related extremes and issues of water sustainability in the coming decades.

Extreme Events in the tropics - Hurricane Manuel and La Pintada Landslide

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramirez-Herrera, M. T.; Gaidzik, K.

2016-12-01

Extreme events in regions of humid-warm tropical climate are repeatedly causing loss of life and economic devastation. Deadly landslides are commonly triggered by extreme storms. Many of them originate on mountain slopes along river systems in areas often populated, increasing the risk to human settlements, theirs activities, and the local envrionment. Frequently hit by hurricanes and tropical cyclones the mountainous areas of Guerrero in southern Mexico are particularly prone to landslide hazard. On 16 September 2013 a huge landslide caused 71 fatalities and destroyed a large part of the La Pintada village. The landslide initiated after extreme rainfall caused by Hurricane Manuel. We performed a post-landslide field survey, applied remote sensing techniques using LIDAR DEM and images, digital models derived from Structure from Motion (SfM), satellite images, orthophotomaps, eyewitness accounts, geotechnical laboratory tests of slope material, and slope stability analysis to examine physical characteristics and processes that influenced the failure of La Pintada landslide. Our results indicate that anomalous precipitation producing oversaturation of soil was the direct factor that initiated the deep-sited La Pintada landslide, in an area where big landslides have occurred in the past. We hypothesized that climate change has contributed to the short recurrence period of extreme meteorological events that trigger great landslides in this tropical area. The lack of high and dense vegetation on La Pintada slope, resulting in increased soil erosion, acted as a preparatory causal factor for landsliding, making the slope more prone to mass wasting. It is likely that human activity (including deforestation activities) also contributed to the decrease of slope stability by cutting the toe of the slope to build houses. Seismic activity, even if did not contribute directly to the initiation of the La Pintada landslide, might have promoted the decrease in slope stability in this tectonically active region.

Analysis of extreme precipitation characteristics in low mountain areas based on three-dimensional copulas—taking Kuandian County as an example

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Cailin; Ren, Xuehui; Li, Ying

2017-04-01

We defined the threshold of extreme precipitation using detrended fluctuation analysis based on daily precipitation during 1955-2013 in Kuandian County, Liaoning Province. Three-dimensional copulas were introduced to analyze the characteristics of four extreme precipitation factors: the annual extreme precipitation day, extreme precipitation amount, annual average extreme precipitation intensity, and extreme precipitation rate of contribution. The results show that (1) the threshold is 95.0 mm, extreme precipitation events generally occur 1-2 times a year, the average extreme precipitation intensity is 100-150 mm, and the extreme precipitation amount is 100-270 mm accounting for 10 to 37 % of annual precipitation. (2) The generalized extreme value distribution, extreme value distribution, and generalized Pareto distribution are suitable for fitting the distribution function for each element of extreme precipitation. The Ali-Mikhail-Haq (AMH) copula function reflects the joint characteristics of extreme precipitation factors. (3) The return period of the three types has significant synchronicity, and the joint return period and co-occurrence return period have long delay when the return period of the single factor is long. This reflects the inalienability of extreme precipitation factors. The co-occurrence return period is longer than that of the single factor and joint return period. (4) The single factor fitting only reflects single factor information of extreme precipitation but is unrelated to the relationship between factors. Three-dimensional copulas represent the internal information of extreme precipitation factors and are closer to the actual. The copula function is potentially widely applicable for the multiple factors of extreme precipitation.

Are extreme hydro-meteorological events a prerequisite for extreme water quality impacts? Exploring climate impacts on inland and coastal waters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Michalak, A. M.; Balaji, V.; Del Giudice, D.; Sinha, E.; Zhou, Y.; Ho, J. C.

2017-12-01

Questions surrounding water sustainability, climate change, and extreme events are often framed around water quantity - whether too much or too little. The massive impacts of extreme water quality impairments are equally compelling, however. Recent years have provided a host of compelling examples, with unprecedented harmful algal blooms developing along the West coast, in Utah Lake, in Lake Erie, and off the Florida coast, and huge hypoxic dead zones continuing to form in regions such as Lake Erie, the Chesapeake Bay, and the Gulf of Mexico. Linkages between climate change, extreme events, and water quality impacts are not well understood, however. Several factors explain this lack of understanding, including the relative complexity of underlying processes, the spatial and temporal scale mismatch between hydrologists and climatologists, and observational uncertainty leading to ambiguities in the historical record. Here, we draw on a number of recent studies that aim to quantitatively link meteorological variability and water quality impacts to test the hypothesis that extreme water quality impairments are the result of extreme hydro-meteorological events. We find that extreme hydro-meteorological events are neither always a necessary nor a sufficient condition for the occurrence of extreme water quality impacts. Rather, extreme water quality impairments often occur in situations where multiple contributing factors compound, which complicates both attribution of historical events and the ability to predict the future incidence of such events. Given the critical societal importance of water quality projections, a concerted program of uncertainty reduction encompassing observational and modeling components will be needed to examine situations where extreme weather plays an important, but not solitary, role in the chain of cause and effect.

Upper Extremity Amputations and Prosthetics

PubMed Central

Ovadia, Steven A.; Askari, Morad

2015-01-01

Upper extremity amputations are most frequently indicated by severe traumatic injuries. The location of the injury will determine the level of amputation. Preservation of extremity length is often a goal. The amputation site will have important implications on the functional status of the patient and options for prosthetic reconstruction. Advances in amputation techniques and prosthetic reconstructions promote improved quality of life. In this article, the authors review the principles of upper extremity amputation, including techniques, amputation sites, and prosthetic reconstructions. PMID:25685104

Whiplash injury is more than neck pain: a population-based study of pain localization after traffic injury.

PubMed

Hincapié, Cesar A; Cassidy, J David; Côté, Pierre; Carroll, Linda J; Guzmán, Jaime

2010-04-01

To describe the distribution of bodily pain and identify common patterns of pain localization after traffic injury. Cross-sectional analysis of a population-based cohort of 6481 Saskatchewan residents who were treated or filed an auto insurance claim within 30 days of traffic injury or both. The prevalence of pain in each of 13 body areas was calculated and compared with pain confined exclusively to each of these areas. Principal component analysis was used to identify the main patterns of pain localization after traffic injury. Irrespective of pain in other areas, 86% of respondents reported posterior neck pain, 72% indicated head pain, and 60% noted lumbar back pain. Ninety-five percent of claimants reported some pain within the posterior trunk region, comprising the posterior neck, shoulder, mid-back, lumbar, and buttock areas. Only 0.4% of respondents reported posterior neck pain only. Four main patterns accounted for 60% of the variance in pain localization: 1) upper anterior trunk and upper extremity pain; 2) head, posterior neck, and upper posterior trunk pain; 3) low back pain; and 4) lower anterior trunk and lower extremity pain. Pain after traffic injury is most commonly reported in multiple body areas; isolated neck pain is extremely rare. These results have implications for clinical management of traffic injuries and interpretation of whiplash-related trials.

EPA's National Coastal Condition Assessment: Pilot research ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The EPA Office of Water’s 5-year cycles of national surveys of wetlands, lakes, rivers, and coastal areas help satisfy the assessment and antidegradation provisions of the Clean Water Act. Measuring extant conditions precedes measuring change in conditions. Surveys are challenged to adequately sample extreme conditions occurring in small areas. Extremely bad conditions are targets for remediation. Extremely good conditions are targets for protection. In 2010, the National Coastal Condition Assessment (NCCA) found the majority of the coastal Great Lakes (by area) was in good condition for water (60%) and sediment (51%) quality but not benthos (20%) and fish tissue contaminants (<1%). Low sampling success for biological sampling was an issue. As part of the 2014 Lake Erie CSMI field year, EPA’s Great Lakes National Program Office, working with the Office of Research and Development, began pilot research to integrate connecting channels into Great Lakes surveys. Assessments of the Huron-Erie corridor (HEC; 2014, 2015) and St Marys River (SMR; 2015, 2016) which have previously gone unassessed by NCCA, are being developed. Water, sediment, and benthic quality data from the 2014 HEC survey (n=60) were compared to 2010 NCCA data from adjacent lakes. Water quality rated “poor” (as % area) in HEC was intermediate compared to Lake Huron and Erie regardless of which lake-specific thresholds were used. However, the amount of area classified as “good” was highl

Surface atmospheric extremes (launch and transportation areas)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1974-01-01

Criteria are provided on atmospheric extremes from the surface to 150 meters for geographical locations of interest to NASA. Thermal parameters (temperature and solar radiation), humidity, precipitation, pressure, and atmospheric electricity (lightning and static) are presented. Available data are also provided for the entire continental United States for use in future space programs.

Extreme Precipitation and Emergency Room Visits for Gastrointestinal Illness in Areas With and Without Combined Sewer Systems: An Analysis of Massachusetts Data, 2003-2007

EPA Science Inventory

Background: Combined sewer overflows (CSOs) occur in combined sewer systems when sewage and stormwater runoff discharge into waterbodies potentially contaminating water sources. CSOs are often caused by heavy precipitation and are expected to increase with increasing extreme pre...

Semistable extremal ground states for nonlinear evolution equations in unbounded domains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodríguez-Bernal, Aníbal; Vidal-López, Alejandro

2008-02-01

In this paper we show that dissipative reaction-diffusion equations in unbounded domains posses extremal semistable ground states equilibria, which bound asymptotically the global dynamics. Uniqueness of such positive ground state and their approximation by extremal equilibria in bounded domains is also studied. The results are then applied to the important case of logistic equations.

Regional and Household Adaptation Strategies to Climate Extremes: the Case Study of the Beava River Basin, the Czech Republic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duží, Barbora; Stojanov, Robert; Vikhrov, Dmytro

2013-04-01

We investigate regional and household adaptation strategies in the region affected by climate extremes, focusing on floods occurrence during past 15 years period. The main research question is: What is the overall state of adaptation measurements to climate extremes on the Bečva river basin? Target area is located along upper and middle part of the Bečva river basin in the east of the Czech Republic. The main theoretical concepts draw from differentiations between coping/adaptation strategies to climate extremes and theory of focusing event as a starter of changes in attention and agenda of problem solution. We apply mixed empirical research and case study approach. First we use qualitative research to serve as an initial entrance to the issue, to find out the perception of adaptation progress and preparedness to climate extremes on regional level. We conducted deep interviews (N=20) with relevant stakeholders. We proceed with quantitative research through the conducting face-to face questionnaires with household residents (N=305) in no, low and no risk area in relation to flood occurrence. We designed set of questions to find out relation among experiences with flood, the level of damages and applied emergency and adaptation measurements.

On alternative q-Weibull and q-extreme value distributions: Properties and applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Fode; Ng, Hon Keung Tony; Shi, Yimin

2018-01-01

Tsallis statistics and Tsallis distributions have been attracting a significant amount of research work in recent years. Importantly, the Tsallis statistics, q-distributions have been applied in different disciplines. Yet, a relationship between some existing q-Weibull distributions and q-extreme value distributions that is parallel to the well-established relationship between the conventional Weibull and extreme value distributions through a logarithmic transformation has not be established. In this paper, we proposed an alternative q-Weibull distribution that leads to a q-extreme value distribution via the q-logarithm transformation. Some important properties of the proposed q-Weibull and q-extreme value distributions are studied. Maximum likelihood and least squares estimation methods are used to estimate the parameters of q-Weibull distribution and their performances are investigated through a Monte Carlo simulation study. The methodologies and the usefulness of the proposed distributions are illustrated by fitting the 2014 traffic fatalities data from The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration.

Preliminary Study of OCD and Health Disparities at the U.S.-Mexico Border

PubMed Central

Olson, Tom; Vera, Beatriz; Perez, Oriana

2007-01-01

The widespread and devastating nature of obsessive compulsive disorder (OCD) sharply contrasts with the paucity of research involving Mexican Americans and Mexicans who suffer from this condition. This mixed-methods preliminary study was intended to provide initial data and to pilot the procedures for a larger investigation of the cultural identification, symptomatology, health concerns, coping mechanisms, and quality of life of Mexican Americans and Mexicans with OCD living in the U.S.-Mexico border region of El Paso, Texas and Ciudad Juarez, Mexico. For the sample of six participants, whose symptoms ranged from moderate to extreme, OCD was associated with marked impairment in quality of life, particularly in terms of social functioning, an area of central importance for many Mexican Americans and Mexicans. Areas of further study were identified, with the aim of developing culturally sensitive interventions to decrease health disparities involving OCD. PMID:17917689

Detailed performance analysis of the A.A.D. - concept B

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sekar, R.; Tozzi, L.

1983-01-01

New concepts for engine performance improvement are seen through the adoption of heat regeneration techniques; advanced methods to enhance the combustion; and higher efficiency air handling machinery, such as the positive displacement helical screw expander and compressor. Each of these concepts plays a particular role in engine performance improvement. First regeneration has a great potential for achieving higher engine thermal efficiency through the recovery of waste energy. Although the concept itself is not new (this technique is used in the gas turbine), the application to reciprocating internal combustion engines is quite unusual and presents conceptual difficulties. The second important area is better control of the combustion process in terms of heat transfer characteristics, combustion products, and heat release rate. The third area for performance improvement is in the adoption of high efficiency air handling machinery. In particular, positive displacement helical expander and compressor exhibit an extremely high efficiency over a wide range of operating conditions.

Projected impacts of climate change on farmers' extraction of groundwater from crystalline aquifers in South India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ferrant, Sylvain; Caballero, Yvan; Perrin, Jérome; Gascoin, Simon; Dewandel, Benoit; Aulong, Stéphanie; Dazin, Fabrice; Ahmed, Shakeel; Maréchal, Jean-Christophe

2014-01-01

Local groundwater levels in South India are falling alarmingly. In the semi-arid crystalline Deccan plateau area, agricultural production relies on groundwater resources. Downscaled Global Climate Model (GCM) data are used to force a spatially distributed agro-hydrological model in order to evaluate Climate Change (CC) effects on local groundwater extraction (GWE). The slight increase of precipitation may alleviate current groundwater depletion on average, despite the increased evaporation due to warming. Nevertheless, projected climatic extremes create worse GWE shortages than for present climate. Local conditions may lead to opposing impacts on GWE, from increases to decreases (+/-20 mm/year), for a given spatially homogeneous CC forcing. Areas vulnerable to CC in terms of irrigation apportionment are thus identified. Our results emphasize the importance of accounting for local characteristics (water harvesting systems and maximal aquifer capacity versus GWE) in developing measures to cope with CC impacts in the South Indian region.

High-resolution IKONOS satellite imagery for normalized difference vegetative index-related assessment applied to land clearance studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lavers, Chris R.; Mason, Travis

2017-07-01

High-resolution satellite imagery permits verification of human rights land clearance violations across international borders as a result of unstable regimes or socio-economic upheaval. Without direct access to these areas to validate allegations of human rights abuse, the use of remote sensing tools, techniques, and data is extremely important. Humanitarian assessment can benefit from software-based solutions, involving radiometrically calibrated normalized difference vegetation index and temporal change imagery. We discuss the introduction of a matrix filter approach for change detection studies to help assist rapid building detection over large search areas against a bright background to evaluate internally displaced people in the 2005 Porta Farm Zimbabwe clearances. Future wide-scale near real-time space-based monitoring with a range of digital filters would be of great benefit to international human rights observers and human rights networks.

Projected impacts of climate change on farmers' extraction of groundwater from crystalline aquifers in South India.

PubMed

Ferrant, Sylvain; Caballero, Yvan; Perrin, Jérome; Gascoin, Simon; Dewandel, Benoit; Aulong, Stéphanie; Dazin, Fabrice; Ahmed, Shakeel; Maréchal, Jean-Christophe

2014-01-15

Local groundwater levels in South India are falling alarmingly. In the semi-arid crystalline Deccan plateau area, agricultural production relies on groundwater resources. Downscaled Global Climate Model (GCM) data are used to force a spatially distributed agro-hydrological model in order to evaluate Climate Change (CC) effects on local groundwater extraction (GWE). The slight increase of precipitation may alleviate current groundwater depletion on average, despite the increased evaporation due to warming. Nevertheless, projected climatic extremes create worse GWE shortages than for present climate. Local conditions may lead to opposing impacts on GWE, from increases to decreases (+/-20 mm/year), for a given spatially homogeneous CC forcing. Areas vulnerable to CC in terms of irrigation apportionment are thus identified. Our results emphasize the importance of accounting for local characteristics (water harvesting systems and maximal aquifer capacity versus GWE) in developing measures to cope with CC impacts in the South Indian region.

Fabrication of Highly Stable and Efficient PtCu Alloy Nanoparticles on Highly Porous Carbon for Direct Methanol Fuel Cells.

PubMed

Khan, Inayat Ali; Qian, Yuhong; Badshah, Amin; Zhao, Dan; Nadeem, Muhammad Arif

2016-08-17

Boosting the durability of Pt nanoparticles by controlling the composition and morphology is extremely important for fuel cells commercialization. We deposit the Pt-Cu alloy nanoparticles over high surface area carbon in different metallic molar ratios and optimize the conditions to achieve desired material. The novel bimetallic electro-catalyst {Pt-Cu/PC-950 (15:15%)} offers exceptional electrocatalytic activity when tested for both oxygen reduction reaction and methanol oxidation reactions. A high mass activity of 0.043 mA/μgPt (based on Pt mass) is recorded for ORR. An outstanding longevity of this electro-catalyst is noticed when compared to 20 wt % Pt loaded either on PC-950 or commercial carbon. The high surface area carbon support offers enhanced activity and prevents the nanoparticles from agglomeration, migration, and dissolution as evident by TEM analysis.

The role of fine needle aspiration cytology in medical-surgical missions.

PubMed

Reyes, Cesar V; Reyes, Elisa A

2009-01-01

To relate a 6-year, short-term experience of utilizing fine needle aspiration cytology (FNAC) during medical-surgical missions in the impoverished areas of the Philippines. FNAC is a simple, accurate, fast and economical procedure and requires the simplest devices to implement. During medical-surgical missions to the poorest areas in the Third World countries, where there is almost complete lack of tissue processing and frozen section evaluation, and scarcity of laboratory testing, FNAC becomes a practical technique to use. FNAC in these situations plays an important role as an alternative diagnostic modality to surgery. Our week-long mission experience for 6 different years of successful application of FNAC is described. While the mission volunteers have gained extremely rewarding experience in these limited mission works, FNAC has proven to be a very useful adjunct in the delivery of short-term health care during medical-surgical treatment even in a less-than-ideal setting.

Metals anomalies in foraminiferal shells as indicators for industrial pollution: a case study from the Mediterranean coast of Israel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Titelboim, Danna; Sadekov, Aleksey; Almogi-Labin, Ahuva; Herut, Barak; Kucera, Michal; Abramovich, Sigal

2017-04-01

In recent years we have been witnessing a considerable growth of industrial facilities along coastal areas. Some of these have major economical and national importance yet their operation can introduce a wide range of chemicals that might contaminate the coastal area and impact local ecosystems and our health. Among some of these harmful chemicals are metals that are introduced to the coastal environment by some of these facilities. Here we present a novel approach for monitoring low-level industrial pollution in coastal environments based on anomalies in metal concentration within foraminiferal shells. Living foraminifera are used as bio-indicators of the environmental status of any marine habitat. As unicellular organisms with short life and reproductive cycles, they are extremely sensitive to long and short-term changes. The majority of foraminifera precipitate CaCO3 (low-Mg-calcite, high-Mg calcite or rarely aragonite tests). Their calcareous shells are precipitated by a mechanism that involves direct seawater vacuolization which reflects the chemical composition of the ambient water. For this reason the geochemical composition of their shells is particularly applicable as a tool for marine environmental monitoring. Material for this study was obtained during the monthly campaigns of a biomonitoring project (2012-2015) of a heat polluted area and of a nearby natural clean station off the northern Mediterranean coast of Israel. Essentially, monitoring of water chemistry in both habitats showed no indications of presence of heavy metal contamination. Yet, laser ablation inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (LA-ICP-MS) analyses of two common local foraminifera the hyaline species Pararotalia calcariformata and the miliolid species Lachlanella sp. 1 that were collected alive from both areas, recorded presence of various metals (Mn, Cu, Zn, Ba, Pb) within their shells. Metal concentrations within the miliolid species were significantly higher than those of the hyaline species despite of the fact that both species were collected from the same environment. For example, the concentration of Cu in the ambient water was lower than 1μg/L, whereas the values recorded in P. calcariformata ranged between 2-12 μg/L in and between 11-157 μg/L in Lachlanella sp. 1. These results highlight the efficiency of using miliolid species that are extremely common in shallow coastal areas as recorders of extremely low concentrations of metals, thus potentially detecting pollution before harming the ecosystem.

Observed increase in extreme daily rainfall in the French Mediterranean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ribes, Aurélien; Thao, Soulivanh; Vautard, Robert; Dubuisson, Brigitte; Somot, Samuel; Colin, Jeanne; Planton, Serge; Soubeyroux, Jean-Michel

2018-04-01

We examine long-term trends in the historical record of extreme precipitation events occurring over the French Mediterranean area. Extreme events are considered in terms of their intensity, frequency, extent and precipitated volume. Changes in intensity are analysed via an original statistical approach where the annual maximum rainfall amounts observed at each measurement station are aggregated into a univariate time-series according to their dependence. The mean intensity increase is significant and estimated at + 22% (+ 7 to + 39% at the 90% confidence level) over the 1961-2015 period. Given the observed warming over the considered area, this increase is consistent with a rate of about one to three times that implied by the Clausius-Clapeyron relationship. Changes in frequency and other spatial features are investigated through a Generalised Linear Model. Changes in frequency for events exceeding high thresholds (about 200 mm in 1 day) are found to be significant, typically near a doubling of the frequency, but with large uncertainties in this change ratio. The area affected by severe events and the water volume precipitated during those events also exhibit significant trends, with an increase by a factor of about 4 for a 200 mm threshold, again with large uncertainties. All diagnoses consistently point toward an intensification of the most extreme events over the last decades. We argue that it is difficult to explain the diagnosed trends without invoking the human influence on climate.

Towards a full representation of tropical cyclones in a global reanalysis of extreme sea levels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muis, S.; Verlaan, M.; Lin, N.; Winsemius, H.; Vatvani, D.; Ward, P.; Aerts, J.

2016-12-01

Tropical cyclones (TCs), including hurricanes and typhoons, are characterised by high wind speeds and low pressure, and cause dangerous storm surges in coastal areas. Recent disasters like the flooding of New Orleans in 2005 due to Hurricane Katrina and of New York in 2012 due to Hurricane Sandy exemplify the significant TC risk in the United States. In this contribution, we present a new framework to model TC storm surges and probabilities at the Atlantic basin- and, ultimately, global scales. This works builds on the work of Muis et al. (2016), which presented the first dynamically-derived reanalysis dataset of storm surges that covers the entire world's coastline (GTSR dataset). Surge levels for the period 1979-2014 were simulated by forcing the Global Surge and Tide Model (GTSM) with wind speed and atmospheric pressure from the ERA-Interim reanalysis. There is generally a good agreement between simulated and observed sea level extremes in extra-tropical regions; however for areas prone to TCs there is a severe underestimation of extremes. For example, the maximum surge levels during Hurricane Katrina in New Orleans exceeded 8 m, whilst the GTSM surge levels in that area do not exceed 2-3 m. Hence, due to the coarse grid resolution, the strong intensities of TCs are not fully captured in ERA-Interim. Furthermore, the length of ERA-Interim data set, like other reanalysis datasets, is too short to estimate the probabilities of extreme TC events in a reliable way. For accurate risk assessments it is essential to improve the representation of TCs in these global reanalysis of extreme sea levels. First, we need a higher resolution of meteorological forcing, which can be modelled with input from the observed best track data. Second, we need to statistically extend the observed record to many thousands of years. We will present the first results of these steps for the east coast of the United States. We will validate the GTSM model forced with best track data using recent extreme events like Katrina and Sandy. We will investigate how the statistics of the extreme sea level will change due to improved representation of TCs.

Assessing the features of extreme smog in China and the differentiated treatment strategy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deng, Lu; Zhang, Zhengjun

2018-01-01

Extreme smog can have potentially harmful effects on human health, the economy and daily life. However, the average (mean) values do not provide strategically useful information on the hazard analysis and control of extreme smog. This article investigates China's smog extremes by applying extreme value analysis to hourly PM2.5 data from 2014 to 2016 obtained from monitoring stations across China. By fitting a generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution to exceedances over a station-specific extreme smog level at each monitoring location, all study stations are grouped into eight different categories based on the estimated mean and shape parameter values of fitted GEV distributions. The extreme features characterized by the mean of the fitted extreme value distribution, the maximum frequency and the tail index of extreme smog at each location are analysed. These features can provide useful information for central/local government to conduct differentiated treatments in cities within different categories and conduct similar prevention goals and control strategies among those cities belonging to the same category in a range of areas. Furthermore, hazardous hours, breaking probability and the 1-year return level of each station are demonstrated by category, based on which the future control and reduction targets of extreme smog are proposed for the cities of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei as an example.

Environmental geology: Our professional public responsibility

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gerhard, L.C.; Brady, L.L.

1999-01-01

Conflicts between different interest groups for use of natural resources is one area where state geological surveys can provide assistance. A state geological survey working within the scientific constraints of specific issues can remain objective in its presentations and maintain the faith of both the conflicting interest groups and the public. One cannot vary from the objective view or you will quickly be criticized. Criticism can still occur from one side of a natural resource issue as your data might counter their views. However, the final decisions are almost always made in some legislators, or regulators, area of responsibility. The responsibility of the state geological survey is to provide the important data that will assist in making correct decisions. Should one party in the conflict become extreme in their demands, a potential compromise that is beneficial to both sides can be lost. In Kansas, the classical natural resource problem of resource/recreation in a populated area is presented as a case study. The state geological survey presented data on sand resources in the Kansas River and its valley in northeast Kansas. That information was important to both recreation and dredging interests where the political problem is a conflict of sand use as a construction material resource versus use of the alluvial river as an important recreation area, especially for canoeing. However, when a reasonable compromise was near completion in the Kansas Legislature one side, in a bold move to develop an advantage, ruined that potential for compromise.Conflicts between different interest groups for use of natural resources is one area where state geological surveys can provide assistance. A state geological survey working within the scientific constraints of specific issues can remain objective in its presentations and maintain the faith of both the conflicting interest groups and the public. In Kansas, the classical natural resource problem of resource/recreation in a populated area is presented as a case study. The state geological survey presented data on sand resources in the Kansas River and its valley in northeast Kansas. That information was important to both recreation and dredging interests.

Challenges in Modelling of Lightning-Induced Delamination; Effect of Temperature-Dependent Interfacial Properties

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Naghipour, P.; Pineda, E. J.; Arnold, S.

2014-01-01

Lightning is a major cause of damage in laminated composite aerospace structures during flight. Due to the dielectric nature of Carbon fiber reinforced polymers (CFRPs), the high energy induced by lightning strike transforms into extreme, localized surface temperature accompanied with a high-pressure shockwave resulting in extensive damage. It is crucial to develop a numerical tool capable of predicting the damage induced from a lightning strike to supplement extremely expensive lightning experiments. Delamination is one of the most significant failure modes resulting from a lightning strike. It can be extended well beyond the visible damage zone, and requires sophisticated techniques and equipment to detect. A popular technique used to model delamination is the cohesive zone approach. Since the loading induced from a lightning strike event is assumed to consist of extreme localized heating, the cohesive zone formulation should additionally account for temperature effects. However, the sensitivity to this dependency remains unknown. Therefore, the major focus point of this work is to investigate the importance of this dependency via defining various temperature dependency profiles for the cohesive zone properties, and analyzing the corresponding delamination area. Thus, a detailed numerical model consisting of multidirectional composite plies with temperature-dependent cohesive elements in between is subjected to lightning (excessive amount of heat and pressure) and delamination/damage expansion is studied under specified conditions.

Outcomes for the extremely premature infant: what is new? And where are we going?

PubMed

Robertson, Charlene M T; Watt, Man-Joe; Dinu, Irina A

2009-03-01

Two approaches were taken to determine what is new and where we are going in terms of outcomes for the extremely premature infant: publications from 2004 to 2007 were reviewed, and the 30-year outcome at the authors' institutions was assessed. Recent literature documents improving early childhood outcomes in the face of improved survival. Childhood cerebral palsy prevalence rates have been reported to be as low as 19 per 1000 live births for infants born at 20-27 weeks gestation. Vision and hearing loss have been reported in fewer than 1% of survivors. The rate of overall intellectual impairment has not improved, although impairment was reduced in a recent trial of caffeine therapy for apnea of prematurity, and this remains an important area for study. In sum, recent findings herald a more positive perspective on the outcome for extremely premature survivors. It can thus be expected that new intensive-care trials will attempt to reduce the proportion of survivors with adverse outcomes. Childhood assessments will have a greater focus on function and participation. Information on improved outcomes for preterm infants will inform guidelines of decision making used to help parents to determine what is best for their child. The audit component of follow-up studies will expand and more cohort and trial studies will become multicenter, national, and international.

Heavy Metal Contamination Assessment and Partition for Industrial and Mining Gathering Areas

PubMed Central

Guan, Yang; Shao, Chaofeng; Ju, Meiting

2014-01-01

Industrial and mining activities have been recognized as the major sources of soil heavy metal contamination. This study introduced an improved Nemerow index method based on the Nemerow and geo-accumulation index. Taking a typical industrial and mining gathering area in Tianjin (China) as example, this study then analyzed the contamination sources as well as the ecological and integrated risks. The spatial distribution of the contamination level and ecological risk were determined using Geographic Information Systems. The results are as follows: (1) Zinc showed the highest contaminant level in the study area; the contamination levels of the other seven heavy metals assessed were relatively lower. (2) The combustion of fossil fuels and emissions from industrial and mining activities were the main sources of contamination in the study area. (3) The overall contamination level of heavy metals in the study area ranged from heavily contaminated to extremely contaminated and showed an uneven distribution. (4) The potential ecological risk showed an uneven distribution, and the overall ecological risk level ranged from low to moderate. This study also emphasized the importance of partition in industrial and mining areas, the extensive application of spatial analysis methods, and the consideration of human health risks in future studies. PMID:25032743

Estimation of Damaged Areas due to the 2010 Chile Earthquake and Tsunami Using SAR Imagery of Alos/palsar

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Made, Pertiwi Jaya Ni; Miura, Fusanori; Besse Rimba, A.

2016-06-01

A large-scale earthquake and tsunami affect thousands of people and cause serious damages worldwide every year. Quick observation of the disaster damage is extremely important for planning effective rescue operations. In the past, acquiring damage information was limited to only field surveys or using aerial photographs. In the last decade, space-borne images were used in many disaster researches, such as tsunami damage detection. In this study, SAR data of ALOS/PALSAR satellite images were used to estimate tsunami damage in the form of inundation areas in Talcahuano, the area near the epicentre of the 2010 Chile earthquake. The image processing consisted of three stages, i.e. pre-processing, analysis processing, and post-processing. It was conducted using multi-temporal images before and after the disaster. In the analysis processing, inundation areas were extracted through the masking processing. It consisted of water masking using a high-resolution optical image of ALOS/AVNIR-2 and elevation masking which built upon the inundation height using DEM image of ASTER-GDEM. The area result was 8.77 Km2. It showed a good result and corresponded to the inundation map of Talcahuano. Future study in another area is needed in order to strengthen the estimation processing method.

Impact of tropical cyclones on modeled extreme wind-wave climate

DOE PAGES

Timmermans, Ben; Stone, Daithi; Wehner, Michael; ...

2017-02-16

Here, the effect of forcing wind resolution on the extremes of global wind-wave climate are investigated in numerical simulations. Forcing winds from the Community Atmosphere Model at horizontal resolutions of ~1.0° and ~0.25° are used to drive Wavewatch III. Differences in extreme wave height are found to manifest most strongly in tropical cyclone (TC) regions, emphasizing the need for high-resolution forcing in those areas. Comparison with observations typically show improvement in performance with increased forcing resolution, with a strong influence in the tail of the distribution, although simulated extremes can exceed observations. A simulation for the end of the 21stmore » century under a RCP 8.5 type emission scenario suggests further increases in extreme wave height in TC regions.« less

Impact of tropical cyclones on modeled extreme wind-wave climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Timmermans, Ben; Stone, Dáithí; Wehner, Michael; Krishnan, Harinarayan

2017-02-01

The effect of forcing wind resolution on the extremes of global wind-wave climate are investigated in numerical simulations. Forcing winds from the Community Atmosphere Model at horizontal resolutions of ˜1.0° and ˜0.25° are used to drive Wavewatch III. Differences in extreme wave height are found to manifest most strongly in tropical cyclone (TC) regions, emphasizing the need for high-resolution forcing in those areas. Comparison with observations typically show improvement in performance with increased forcing resolution, with a strong influence in the tail of the distribution, although simulated extremes can exceed observations. A simulation for the end of the 21st century under a RCP 8.5 type emission scenario suggests further increases in extreme wave height in TC regions.

Comparing the urbanization and global warming impacts on extreme rainfall characteristics in Southern China Pearl River Delta megacity based on dynamical downscaling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fung, K. Y.; Tam, C. Y.; Wang, Z.

2017-12-01

It is well known that urban land use can significantly influence the local temperature, precipitation and meteorology through altering land-atmosphere exchange of momentum, moisture and heat in urban areas. In recent decades, there has been a substantial increase ( 5-10%) on the intensity of extreme rainfall over Southeast China; it is projected to increase further according to the latest IPCC reports. In this study, we assess how urbanization and global warming together might impact on heavy precipitation characteristics over the highly urbanized Pearl River Delta (PRD) megacity, located in southern China. This is done by dynamically downscaling GFDL-ESM2M simulations for the present and future (RCP8.5) climate scenarios, using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model coupled with a single-layer urban canopy model (UCM). Over the PRD area, the WRF model is integrated at a resolution of 2km x 2km. To focus on extreme events, episodes covering daily rainfall intensity above the 99th percentile in Southeast China in the GFDL-ESM2M daily precipitation datasets were first identified. These extreme episodes were then dynamically downscaled in two parallel experiments with the following model designs: one with anthropogenic heat flux (AH) = 0 Wm-2 and the other with peak AH = 300 Wm-2 in the AH diurnal cycle over the urban domain. Results show that, with AH in urban area, the urban 2m-temperature can rise by about 2oC. This in turn leads to an increase of the mean as well as the extreme rain rates by 10-15% in urban domain. The latter is comparable to the impact of global warming alone, according to downscaling experiments for the RCP8.5 scenario. Implications of our results on urban effects on extreme rainfall under a warming background climate will be discussed.

Water-Borne Diseases and Extreme Weather Events in Cambodia: Review of Impacts and Implications of Climate Change

PubMed Central

Davies, Grace I.; McIver, Lachlan; Kim, Yoonhee; Hashizume, Masahiro; Iddings, Steven; Chan, Vibol

2014-01-01

Cambodia is prone to extreme weather events, especially floods, droughts and typhoons. Climate change is predicted to increase the frequency and intensity of such events. The Cambodian population is highly vulnerable to the impacts of these events due to poverty; malnutrition; agricultural dependence; settlements in flood-prone areas, and public health, governance and technological limitations. Yet little is known about the health impacts of extreme weather events in Cambodia. Given the extremely low adaptive capacity of the population, this is a crucial knowledge gap. A literature review of the health impacts of floods, droughts and typhoons in Cambodia was conducted, with regional and global information reviewed where Cambodia-specific literature was lacking. Water-borne diseases are of particular concern in Cambodia, in the face of extreme weather events and climate change, due to, inter alia, a high pre-existing burden of diseases such as diarrhoeal illness and a lack of improved sanitation infrastructure in rural areas. A time-series analysis under quasi-Poisson distribution was used to evaluate the association between floods and diarrhoeal disease incidence in Cambodian children between 2001 and 2012 in 16 Cambodian provinces. Floods were significantly associated with increased diarrhoeal disease in two provinces, while the analysis conducted suggested a possible protective effect from toilets and piped water. Addressing the specific, local pre-existing vulnerabilities is vital to promoting population health resilience and strengthening adaptive capacity to extreme weather events and climate change in Cambodia. PMID:25546280

Water-borne diseases and extreme weather events in Cambodia: review of impacts and implications of climate change.

PubMed

Davies, Grace I; McIver, Lachlan; Kim, Yoonhee; Hashizume, Masahiro; Iddings, Steven; Chan, Vibol

2014-12-23

Cambodia is prone to extreme weather events, especially floods, droughts and typhoons. Climate change is predicted to increase the frequency and intensity of such events. The Cambodian population is highly vulnerable to the impacts of these events due to poverty; malnutrition; agricultural dependence; settlements in flood-prone areas, and public health, governance and technological limitations. Yet little is known about the health impacts of extreme weather events in Cambodia. Given the extremely low adaptive capacity of the population, this is a crucial knowledge gap. A literature review of the health impacts of floods, droughts and typhoons in Cambodia was conducted, with regional and global information reviewed where Cambodia-specific literature was lacking. Water-borne diseases are of particular concern in Cambodia, in the face of extreme weather events and climate change, due to, inter alia, a high pre-existing burden of diseases such as diarrhoeal illness and a lack of improved sanitation infrastructure in rural areas. A time-series analysis under quasi-Poisson distribution was used to evaluate the association between floods and diarrhoeal disease incidence in Cambodian children between 2001 and 2012 in 16 Cambodian provinces. Floods were significantly associated with increased diarrhoeal disease in two provinces, while the analysis conducted suggested a possible protective effect from toilets and piped water. Addressing the specific, local pre-existing vulnerabilities is vital to promoting population health resilience and strengthening adaptive capacity to extreme weather events and climate change in Cambodia.

Changes in land cover and vegetation carbon stocks in Andalusia, Southern Spain (1956-2007).

PubMed

Muñoz-Rojas, M; De la Rosa, D; Zavala, L M; Jordán, A; Anaya-Romero, M

2011-06-15

Land use has significantly changed during the recent decades at global and local scale, while the importance of ecosystems as sources/sinks of C has been highlighted, emphasizing the global impact of land use changes. Land use changes can increase C loss rates which are extremely difficult to reverse, in the short term, opposite to organic carbon (OC) which accumulates in soil in the long-term. The aim of this research is to improve and test methodologies to assess land cover change (LCC) dynamics and temporal and spatial variability in C stored in vegetation at a wide scale. LCCs between 1956 and 2007 in Andalusia (Southern Spain) were selected for this pilot study, assessed by comparison of spatial data from 1956 to 2007 and were reclassified following land cover flows (LCFs) reported in major areas in Europe. Carbon vegetation densities were related to land cover, and C vegetation stocks for 1956 and 2007 were calculated by multiplying C density for each land cover class with land cover areas. The study area has supported important changes during the studied period with significant consequences for vegetation C stocks, mainly due to afforestation and intensification of agriculture, resulting in a total vegetation C stock of 156.08Tg in 2007, with an increase of 17.24Tg since 1956. This study demonstrates the importance of LCC for C sequestration in vegetation from Mediterranean areas, highlighting possible directions for management policies in order to mitigate climate change as well as promoting land conservation. The methodologies and information generated in this project will be a useful basis for designing land management strategies helpful for decision makers. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A proposed decision-making guide for the search, rescue and resuscitation of submersion (head under) victims based on expert opinion.

PubMed

Tipton, Michael J; Golden, Frank St C

2011-07-01

There is some confusion, and consequent variation in policy, between the agencies responsible for the search, rescue and resuscitation of submersion victims regarding the likelihood of survival following a period of submersion. The aim of this work was to recommend a decision-making guide for such victims. This guidance was arrived at by a review of the relevant literature and specific case studies, and a "consensus" meeting on the topic. The factors found to be important for determining the possibility of prolonged survival underwater were: water temperature; salinity of water; duration of submersion; and age of the victim. Of these, only water temperature and duration are sufficiently clear to form the basis of guidance in this area. It is concluded that if water temperature is warmer than 6°C, survival/resuscitation is extremely unlikely if submerged longer than 30 min. If water temperature is 6°C or below, survival/resuscitation is extremely unlikely if submerged longer than 90 min. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Why were California's wine country fires so destructive?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Keeley, Jon E.

2017-01-01

As of late October more than a dozen wildfires north of San Francisco had killed more than 40 people, burned approximately 160,000 acres and destroyed more than 7,000 structures.This tragic loss of life and property is unprecedented in California. However, the fires are not anomalous events in terms of their size, intensity or the speed with which they spread. Indeed, the path of the destructive Tubbs fire in Napa and Sonoma counties mirrors that of the Hanley fire of 1964. This extreme wind-driven fire burned under similar conditions, across much of the same landscape and covered an area substantially greater than the recent Tubbs fire.Strikingly, though, no lives were lost during the Hanley fire and only 29 structures were destroyed. Why did these two fires, 50 years apart, burn on the same general landscape, under similar extreme winds, with such different human impacts? Fire scientists will study these events intensively to parse out the relative importance of various factors. But it is clear that two factors probably were major contributors: wind and population growth.

Research on improving image recognition robustness by combining multiple features with associative memory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Dongwei; Wang, Zhe

2018-05-01

Convolutional neural networks (CNN) achieve great success in computer vision, it can learn hierarchical representation from raw pixels and has outstanding performance in various image recognition tasks [1]. However, CNN is easy to be fraudulent in terms of it is possible to produce images totally unrecognizable to human eyes that CNNs believe with near certainty are familiar objects. [2]. In this paper, an associative memory model based on multiple features is proposed. Within this model, feature extraction and classification are carried out by CNN, T-SNE and exponential bidirectional associative memory neural network (EBAM). The geometric features extracted from CNN and the digital features extracted from T-SNE are associated by EBAM. Thus we ensure the recognition of robustness by a comprehensive assessment of the two features. In our model, we can get only 8% error rate with fraudulent data. In systems that require a high safety factor or some key areas, strong robustness is extremely important, if we can ensure the image recognition robustness, network security will be greatly improved and the social production efficiency will be extremely enhanced.

An Unusual Hydrophobic Core Confers Extreme Flexibility to HEAT Repeat Proteins

PubMed Central

Kappel, Christian; Zachariae, Ulrich; Dölker, Nicole; Grubmüller, Helmut

2010-01-01

Alpha-solenoid proteins are suggested to constitute highly flexible macromolecules, whose structural variability and large surface area is instrumental in many important protein-protein binding processes. By equilibrium and nonequilibrium molecular dynamics simulations, we show that importin-β, an archetypical α-solenoid, displays unprecedentedly large and fully reversible elasticity. Our stretching molecular dynamics simulations reveal full elasticity over up to twofold end-to-end extensions compared to its bound state. Despite the absence of any long-range intramolecular contacts, the protein can return to its equilibrium structure to within 3 Å backbone RMSD after the release of mechanical stress. We find that this extreme degree of flexibility is based on an unusually flexible hydrophobic core that differs substantially from that of structurally similar but more rigid globular proteins. In that respect, the core of importin-β resembles molten globules. The elastic behavior is dominated by nonpolar interactions between HEAT repeats, combined with conformational entropic effects. Our results suggest that α-solenoid structures such as importin-β may bridge the molecular gap between completely structured and intrinsically disordered proteins. PMID:20816072

A Case of Scurvy-Uncommon Disease-Presenting as Panniculitis, Purpura, and Oligoarthritis.

PubMed

Mintsoulis, Danielle; Milman, Nataliya; Fahim, Simone

2016-11-01

Scurvy remains prevalent in certain populations, including addicts, people of low socioeconomic status, and the severely malnourished. It classically presents as follicular hyperkeratosis and perifollicular hemorrhage of the lower extremities, as well as bleeding in other areas such as the gingiva and joints. This case presentation and literature review highlights the common pathophysiological findings associated with scurvy and current methods of diagnosis and treatment. The patient described in this case presented with sudden oligoarthritis and purpura of the lower extremities. Following progression of the patient's symptoms and a low vitamin C serum concentration, the patient was treated with vitamin C supplementation and dramatically improved. This was considered to be the result of an underlying vitamin C deficiency secondary to insufficient fruit and vegetable intake due to allergies. This case highlights the importance of maintaining a high index of suspicion for scurvy in atypical presentations of purpura not better explained by another disease or in additional populations at high risk of vitamin C deficiency. Early diagnosis by either a primary care physician or dermatologist can expedite the treatment process and improve patient prognosis. © The Author(s) 2016.

Accurate localization of organ representation areas on the feet & hands using the bi-digital O-ring test resonance phenomenon: its clinical implication in diagnosis & treatment--Part I.

PubMed

Omura, Y

1994-01-01

Accuracy of the widely used organ representation areas, currently used in different schools of foot and hand reflexology was evaluated using Bi-Digital O-Ring test resonance phenomenon. Our previous study indicated that mapping organ representation areas of the tongue using Bi-Digital O-Ring Test resonance phenomenon between 2 identical substances often provided more reliable clinical information for both diagnosis and treatment than the 2 widely used, but crude, traditional schools of Chinese tongue diagnosis. This same method was applied for the mapping of the organ representation areas on the feet and hands. We succeeded in mapping the following areas on human feet: 1) Middle (3rd) toe on the sole side represents the following starting from the tip: A) Head, B) Face with eye, ear, nose, and mouth (1st Digit) C) Neck and organs within the neck (narrow band of space between 1st crease after the 1st digit and crease at the junction of the beginning of the sole); 2) 2nd and 4th toe represent upper extremities, the beginning tip being fingers and hands. The crease at the base of these toes represents the shoulder. The 2nd toe represents right upper extremity, and the 4th toe represents left upper extremity; 3) 1st and 5th toes in both the right and left feet represent lower extremities with the tip being the toes and soles of feet. The crease at the base of these toes represents the inguinal area. The 1st toe of each foot represents right lower extremity, and 5th toe represents left lower extremity. The sole of the foot is divided into the following 3 distinctive sections. 1) Upper (1st) section represents organs in the chest cavity including 2 thymus glands, trachea, 2 lungs, with the heart between them, and with the esophagus appearing as a narrow band outside of the lung near and below the 1st and 2nd toe depending upon the individual. Chest section occupies the first 1/3 to 1/5 (on a relatively long foot) of the entire sole. The boundary between the chest and G.I. system can be approximately estimated by extending the length of the entire toe or up to 25% longer to the sole, but it can be accurately determined using a diaphragm tissue microscope slide as a reference control substance. 2) Middle (2nd) section represents Gastro-Intestinal system, including lower end of the esophagus, liver, stomach, spleen, gall bladder, pancreas, duodenum, jejunum, ileum, appendix, colon, and anus.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 400 WORDS)

Quality versus quantity: The complexities of quality of life determinations for neonatal nurses.

PubMed

Green, Janet; Darbyshire, Philip; Adams, Anne; Jackson, Debra

2017-11-01

The ability to save the life of an extremely premature baby has increased substantially over the last decade. This survival, however, can be associated with unfavourable outcomes for both baby and family. Questions are now being asked about quality of life for survivors of extreme prematurity. Quality of life is rightly deemed to be an important consideration in high technology neonatal care; yet, it is notoriously difficult to determine or predict. How does one define and operationalise what is considered to be in the best interest of a surviving extremely premature baby, especially when the full extent of the outcomes might not be known for several years? The research investigates the caregiving dilemmas often faced by neonatal nurses when caring for extremely premature babies. This article explores the issues arising for neonatal nurses when they considered the philosophical and ethical questions about quality of life in babies ≤24 weeks gestation. Data were collected via a questionnaire to Australian neonatal nurses and semi-structured interviews with 24 neonatal nurses in New South Wales, Australia. Ethical considerations: Ethical processes and procedures have been adhered to by the researchers. A qualitative approach was used to analyse the data. The theme 'difficult choices' was generated which comprised three sub-themes: 'damaged through survival', 'the importance of the brain' and 'families are important'. The results show that neonatal nurses believed that quality of life was an important consideration; yet they experienced significant inner conflict and uncertainty when asked to define or suggest specific elements of quality of life, or to suggest how it might be determined. It was even more difficult for the nurses to say when an extremely premature baby's life possessed quality. Their previous clinical and personal experiences led the nurses to believe that the quality of the family's life was important, and possibly more so than the quality of life of the surviving baby. This finding contrasts markedly with much of the existing literature in this field. Quality of life for extremely premature babies was an important consideration for neonatal nurses; however, they experienced difficulty deciding how to operationalise such considerations in their everyday clinical practice.

Spatio-temporal analysis of the extreme precipitation by the L-moment-based index-flood method in the Yangtze River Delta region, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yin, Yixing; Chen, Haishan; Xu, Chongyu; Xu, Wucheng; Chen, Changchun

2014-05-01

The regionalization methods which 'trade space for time' by including several at-site data records in the frequency analysis are an efficient tool to improve the reliability of extreme quantile estimates. With the main aims of improving the understanding of the regional frequency of extreme precipitation and providing scientific and practical background and assistance in formulating the regional development strategies for water resources management in one of the most developed and flood-prone regions in China, the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region, in this paper, L-moment-based index-flood (LMIF) method, one of the popular regionalization methods, is used in the regional frequency analysis of extreme precipitation; attention was paid to inter-site dependence and its influence on the accuracy of quantile estimates, which hasn't been considered for most of the studies using LMIF method. Extensive data screening of stationarity, serial dependence and inter-site dependence was carried out first. The entire YRD region was then categorized into four homogeneous regions through cluster analysis and homogenous analysis. Based on goodness-of-fit statistic and L-moment ratio diagrams, Generalized extreme-value (GEV) and Generalized Normal (GNO) distributions were identified as the best-fit distributions for most of the sub regions. Estimated quantiles for each region were further obtained. Monte-Carlo simulation was used to evaluate the accuracy of the quantile estimates taking inter-site dependence into consideration. The results showed that the root mean square errors (RMSEs) were bigger and the 90% error bounds were wider with inter-site dependence than those with no inter-site dependence for both the regional growth curve and quantile curve. The spatial patterns of extreme precipitation with return period of 100 years were obtained which indicated that there are two regions with the highest precipitation extremes (southeastern coastal area of Zhejiang Province and the southwest part of Anhui Province) and a large region with low precipitation extremes in the north and middle parts of Zhejiang Province, Shanghai City and Jiangsu Province. However, the central areas with low precipitation extremes are the most developed and densely populated regions in the study area, thus floods will cause great loss of human life and property damage. These findings will contribute to formulating the regional development strategies for policymakers and stakeholders in water resource management against the menaces of frequently emerged floods.

The Extreme Climate Index: a novel and multi-hazard index for extreme weather events.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cucchi, Marco; Petitta, Marcello; Calmanti, Sandro

2017-04-01

In this presentation we introduce the Extreme Climate Index (ECI): an objective, multi-hazard index capable of tracking changes in the frequency or magnitude of extreme weather events in African countries, thus indicating that a shift to a new climate regime is underway in a particular area. This index has been developed in the context of XCF (eXtreme Climate Facilities) project lead by ARC (African Risk Capacity, specialised agency of the African Union), and will be used in the payouts triggering mechanism of an insurance programme against risks related to the increase of frequency and magnitude of extreme weather events due to climate regimes' changes. The main hazards covered by ECI will be extreme dry, wet and heat events, with the possibility of adding region-specific risk events such as tropical cyclones for the most vulnerable areas. It will be based on data coming from consistent, sufficiently long, high quality historical records and will be standardized across broad geographical regions, so that extreme events occurring under different climatic regimes in Africa can be comparable. The first step to construct such an index is to define single hazard indicators. In this first study we focused on extreme dry/wet and heat events, using for their description respectively the well-known SPI (Standardized Precipitation Index) and an index developed by us, called SHI (Standardized Heat-waves Index). The second step consists in the development of a computational strategy to combine these, and possibly other indices, so that the ECI can describe, by means of a single indicator, different types of climatic extremes. According to the methodology proposed in this paper, the ECI is defined by two statistical components: the ECI intensity, which indicates whether an event is extreme or not; the angular component, which represent the contribution of each hazard to the overall intensity of the index. The ECI can thus be used to identify "extremes" after defining a suitable threshold above which the events can be held as extremes. In this presentation, after describing the methodology we used for the construction of the ECI, we present results obtained on different African regions, using NCEP Reanalysis dataset for air temperature at sig995 level and CHIRP dataset for precipitations. Particular attention will be devoted to 2015/2016 Malawi drought, which received some media attention due to the failure of the risk assessment model used to trigger due payouts: it will be shown how, on the contrary, combination of hydrological and temperature data used in ECI succeed in evaluating the extremeness of this event.

7 CFR 1709.107 - Eligible communities.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... each community in the grant's proposed target area exceeds one or more of the RUS high energy cost community benchmarks to be eligible for assistance under this program. The smallest area that may be designated as a target area is a 2000 Census block (c) The target community may include an extremely high...

Examining personal values in extreme environment contexts: Revisiting the question of generalizability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, N.; Sandal, G. M.; Leon, G. R.; Kjærgaard, A.

2017-08-01

Land-based extreme environments (e.g. polar expeditions, Antarctic research stations, confinement chambers) have often been used as analog settings for spaceflight. These settings share similarities with the conditions experienced during space missions, including confinement, isolation and limited possibilities for evacuation. To determine the utility of analog settings for understanding human spaceflight, researchers have examined the extent to which the individual characteristics (e.g., personality) of people operating in extreme environments can be generalized across contexts (Sandal, 2000) [1]. Building on previous work, and utilising new and pre-existing data, the present study examined the extent to which personal value motives could be generalized across extreme environments. Four populations were assessed; mountaineers (N =59), military personnel (N = 25), Antarctic over-winterers (N = 21) and Mars simulation participants (N = 12). All participants completed the Portrait Values Questionnaire (PVQ; Schwartz; 2) capturing information on 10 personal values. Rank scores suggest that all groups identified Self-direction, Stimulation, Universalism and Benevolence as important values and acknowledged Power and Tradition as being low priorities. Results from difference testing suggest the extreme environment groups were most comparable on Self-direction, Stimulation, Benevolence, Tradition and Security. There were significant between-group differences on five of the ten values. Overall, findings pinpointed specific values that may be important for functioning in challenging environments. However, the differences that emerged on certain values highlight the importance of considering the specific population when comparing results across extreme settings. We recommend that further research examine the impact of personal value motives on indicators of adjustment, group working, and performance. Information from such studies could then be used to aid selection and training processes for personnel operating in extreme settings, and in space.

Determining hydroclimatic extreme events over the south-central Andes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

RamezaniZiarani, Maryam; Bookhagen, Bodo; Schmidt, Torsten; Wickert, Jens; de la Torre, Alejandro; Volkholz, Jan

2017-04-01

The south-central Andes in NW Argentina are characterized by a strong rainfall asymmetry. In the east-west direction exists one of the steepest rainfall gradients on Earth, resulting from the large topographic differences in this region. In addition, in the north-south direction the rainfall intensity varies as the climatic regime shifts from the tropical central Andes to the subtropical south-central Andes. In this study, we investigate hydroclimatic extreme events over the south-central Andes using ERA-Interim reanalysis data of the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts), the high resolution regional climate model (COSMO-CLM) data and TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) data. We divide the area in three different study regions based on elevation: The high-elevation Altiplano-Puna plateau, an intermediate area characterized by intramontane basins, and the foreland area. We analyze the correlations between climatic variables, such as specific humidity, zonal wind component, meridional wind component and extreme rainfall events in all three domains. The results show that there is a high positive temporal correlation between extreme rainfall events (90th and 99th percentile rainfall) and extreme specific humidity events (90th and 99th percentile specific humidity). In addition, the temporal variations analysis represents a trend of increasing specific humidity with time during time period (1994-2013) over the Altiplano-Puna plateau which is in agreement with rainfall trend. Regarding zonal winds, our results indicate that 99th percentile rainfall events over the Altiplano-Puna plateau coincide temporally with strong easterly winds from intermountain and foreland regions in the east. In addition, the results regarding the meridional wind component represent strong northerly winds in the foreland region coincide temporally with 99th percentile rainfall over the Altiplano-Puna plateau.

Integrated protecting plan for beach erosion. A case study in Plaka beach, E. Crete, Greece

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petrakis, Stelios; Alexandrakis, George; Kozyrakis, George; Hatziyanni, Eleni; Kampanis, Nikolaos

2015-04-01

Coastal zones are among the most active areas on Earth, being subjected to extreme wind / wave conditions, thus vulnerable to erosion. In Greece and Crete in particular, beach zones are extremely important for the welfare of the inhabitants, since, apart for the important biological and archaeological value of the beach zones, the socio-economic value is critical since a great number of human activities are concentrated in such areas (touristic facilities, fishing harbors etc.). The present study investigates the erosional procedures observed in Plaka beach, E. Crete, Greece, a highly touristic developed area with great archaeological interest and proposes a cost-effective solution. The factors taken into consideration for the proposed solution in reducing the erosion of the beach were the study of the climatological, geological and geomorphological regime of the area, the recent (~70 years) shifting of the coastline through the study of topographic maps, aerial photographs and satellite images, the creation of detailed bathymetric and seabed classification maps of the area and finally, a risk analysis in terms of erosional phenomena. On the basis of the above, it is concluded that the area under investigation is subjected to an erosional rate of about 1 m/10 years and the total land-loss for the past 70 years is about 4600 m2. Through the simulation of the wave regime we studied 3 possible scenarios, the "do-nothing" scenario, the construction of a detached submerged breakwater at the depth of 3 meters and, finally, the armoring of the existing beach-wall through the placement of appropriate size and material boulders, forming an artificial slope for the reducing of the wave breaking energy and a small scale nourishment plan. As a result, through the modeling of the above, the most appropriate and cost-effective solution was found to be the third, armoring of the existing coastal wall and nourishment of the beach periodically, thus the further undermining of the beach will be reduced and part of the beach can be replaced, and providing aesthetic and economic value to the beach in order to maintain the coastal protection programme. Acknowledgements This work was performed in the framework of the PEFYKA project within the KRIPIS Αction of the GSRT. The project is funded by Greece and the European Regional Development Fund of the European Union under the NSRF and the O.P. Competitiveness and Entrepreneurship. It has also been supported by the "Estimation of the vunlerability of coastal areas to climatic change and sea level rise. Pilot study in Crete isl. Programme for the promotion of the exchange and scientific cooperation between Greece and Germany" programme IKYDA2013.

Adjusting skewness and maximum 0.5 hour intensity in CLIGEN to improve extreme event and sub-daily intensity generation for assessing climate change impacts

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Both measured data and GCM/RCM projections show an general increasing trend in extreme rainfall events as temperature rises in US. Proper simulation of extreme events is particularly important for assessing climate change impacts on soil erosion and hydrology. The objective of this paper is to fin...

Individual thermal profiles as a basis for comfort improvement in space and other environments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Koscheyev, V. S.; Coca, A.; Leon, G. R.; Dancisak, M. J.

2002-01-01

BACKGROUND: The development of individualized countermeasures to address problems in thermoregulation is of considerable importance for humans in space and other extreme environments. A methodology is presented for evaluating minimal/maximal heat flux from the total human body and specific body zones, and for assessing individual differences in the efficiency of heat exchange from these body areas. The goal is to apply this information to the design of individualized protective equipment. METHODS: A multi-compartment conductive plastic tubing liquid cooling/warming garment (LCWG) was developed. Inlet water temperatures of 8-45 degrees C were imposed sequentially to specific body areas while the remainder of the garment was maintained at 33 degrees C. RESULTS: There were significant differences in heat exchange level among body zones in both the 8 degrees and 45 degrees C temperature conditions (p < 0.001). The greatest amount of heat was absorbed/released by the following areas: thighs (8 degrees C: -2.12 +/- 0.14 kcal min(-1); 45 degrees C: +1.58 +/- 0.23); torso (8 degrees C: -2.12 +/- 0.13 kcal min(-1); 45 degrees C: +1.31 +/- 0.27); calves (8 degrees C: -1.59 +/- 0.26 kcal min(-1); 45 degrees C: +1.53 +/- 0.24); and forearms (8 degrees C: -1.67 +/- 0.29 kcal x min(-1); 45 degrees C: +1.45 +/- 0.20). These are primarily zones with relatively large muscle mass and adipose tissue. Calculation of absorption/release heat rates standardized per unit tube length and flow rate instead of zonal surface area covered showed that there was significantly greater heat transfer in the head, hands, and feet (p < 0.001). The areas in which there was considerable between-subject variability in rates of heat transfer and thus most informative for individual profile design were the torso, thighs, shoulders, and calves or forearms. CONCLUSIONS: The methodology developed is sensitive to individual differences in the process of heat exchange and variations in different body areas, depending on their size and tissue mass content. The design of individual thermal profiles is feasible for better comfort of astronauts on long-duration missions and personnel in other extreme environments.

Reducing risks of maintenance dredging on freshwater mussels (Unionidae) in the Big Sunflower River, Mississippi.

PubMed

Miller, Andrew C; Payne, Barry S

2004-11-01

In response to proposed dredging in a 122-km reach of the Big Sunflower River, Mississippi, we studied freshwater mussels (family: Unionidae) using qualitative, semi-quantitative, and quantitative (0.25 m(2) total substratum removal) methods in 1987, 1993, 1994, 2001, 2002, and 2003. Our objectives were to identify important mussel resources, to devise methods for minimizing dredging risks, and to identify habitat improvement features. Approximately 60% of the fauna was located on two high-density shoals characterized by extreme dominance of the commercially valuable threeridge (Amblema plicata). Shallow nearshore and main channel areas comprised approximately 10 and 88% of the aquatic habitat in the project area; however, these areas were of less importance for mussels and supported densities of approximately 5 and 0.5 individuals/m(2), respectively. Throughout the project area the mussel fauna exhibited little or no evidence of recent recruitment, dominance of relatively few species (either A. plicata, or the bank climber Plectomerus dombeyanus), and low species diversity (H') and evenness. No federally listed endangered or threatened mussels were found, although the pyramid pigtoe (Pleurobema pyramidatum), a species listed as endangered in Mississippi, was collected in and upstream of the project area. Two other state-listed species, Plethobasus cyphyus (sheepnose) and Quadrula cylindrica (rabbitsfoot), were only found on gravelly shoals upriver of the project area. Maintenance plans were redesigned to minimize environmental damage; a hydraulic cutterhead dredge will be used in most of the mainstem to reduce risk to nearshore habitats. High-density assemblages on four shoals will not be dredged and 150 and 100 m buffer zones will be left immediately up and downriver. Enhancements for aquatic biota will be created with gravel substratum and wing dams.

Long-term strategies of climate change adaptation to manage flooding events in urban areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pouget, Laurent; Russo, Beniamino; Redaño, Angel; Ribalaygua, Jaime

2010-05-01

Heavy and sudden rainfalls regularly affect the Mediterranean area, so a great number of people and buildings are exposed to the risk of rain-generated floods. Climate change is expected to modify this risk and, in the case that extreme rainfalls increase in frequencies and intensity, this could result in important damages, particularly in urban areas. This paper presents a project that aims to determine adaptation strategies to future flood risks in urban areas. It has been developed by a panel of water companies (R+i Alliance funding), and includes the evaluation of the climate change impact on the extreme rainfall, the use of innovative modelling tools to accurately forecast the flood risk and, finally, the definition of a pro-active and long-term planning against floods. This methodology has been applied in the city of Barcelona. Current climate models give some projections that are not directly applicable for flood risk studies, either because they do not have an adequate spatial and temporal resolution, or because they do not consider some important local factors, such as orography. These points have been considered within the project, when developing the design storms corresponding to future climatic conditions (e.g. years 2030 or 2050). The methodology uses statistical downscaling techniques based on global climate models predictions, including corrections for extreme events and convective storms, as well as temporal downscaling based on historical observations. The design storms created are used in combination with the predictions of sea level rise and land use evolutions to determine the future risk of flooding in the area of study. Once the boundary conditions are known, an accurate flood hazard assessment is done. It requires a local knowledge of the flow parameters in the whole analyzed domain. In urban catchments, in order to fulfill this requirement, powerful hydrological and hydraulic tools and detailed topographic data represent the unique way for a local estimation of the flow parameters (flow depth, flow velocity, flood duration, etc.). If urban floods are caused by heavy rainfall events and a quick hydrological response of the catchment, the approach to elaborate a flood hazard assessment study should take into account the drainage system capacity, too (in terms of effectiveness of surface drainage structures, as well as storm sewerages). In these cases, the hydrological modelling of the involved subcatchments should be linked to the runoff propagation 2D modelling on the urban surface and the hydraulics of the storm sewers (dual drainage modelling) through a coupled 2D/1D approach. The design storm created and the 2D/1D modelling approach have been used to simulate the future flood risk in the city of Barcelona. From the simulation results, it is possible to understand the flooding processes and the risk associated. It is therefore possible to develop some long-term adaptation strategies to reduce the flood risk for current and future climatic conditions, such as structural measures (e.g. improvement of the stormwater network) and non-structural measures (e.g. enhancement of the flood warning system).

Upper extremity sensorimotor control among collegiate football players.

PubMed

Laudner, Kevin G

2012-03-01

Injuries stemming from shoulder instability are very common among athletes participating in contact sports, such as football. Previous research has shown that increased laxity negatively affects the function of the sensorimotor system potentially leading to a pathological cycle of shoulder dysfunction. Currently, there are no data detailing such effects among football players. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to examine the differences in upper extremity sensorimotor control among football players compared with that of a control group. Forty-five collegiate football players and 70 male control subjects with no previous experience in contact sports participated. All the subjects had no recent history of upper extremity injury. Each subject performed three 30-second upper extremity balance trials on each arm. The balance trials were conducted in a single-arm push-up position with the test arm in the center of a force platform and the subjects' feet on a labile device. The trials were averaged, and the differences in radial area deviation between groups were analyzed using separate 1-way analyses of variance (p < 0.05). The football players showed significantly more radial area deviation of the dominant (0.41 ± 1.23 cm2, p = 0.02) and nondominant arms (0.47 ± 1.63 cm2, p = 0.03) when compared with the control group. These results suggest that football players may have decreased sensorimotor control of the upper extremity compared with individuals with no contact sport experience. The decreased upper extremity sensorimotor control among the football players may be because of the frequent impacts accumulated during football participation. Football players may benefit from exercises that target the sensorimotor system. These findings may also be beneficial in the evaluation and treatment of various upper extremity injuries among football players.

Comparison Of Downscaled CMIP5 Precipitation Datasets For Projecting Changes In Extreme Precipitation In The San Francisco Bay Area.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Milesi, Cristina; Costa-Cabral, Mariza; Rath, John; Mills, William; Roy, Sujoy; Thrasher, Bridget; Wang, Weile; Chiang, Felicia; Loewenstein, Max; Podolske, James

2014-01-01

Water resource managers planning for the adaptation to future events of extreme precipitation now have access to high resolution downscaled daily projections derived from statistical bias correction and constructed analogs. We also show that along the Pacific Coast the Northern Oscillation Index (NOI) is a reliable predictor of storm likelihood, and therefore a predictor of seasonal precipitation totals and likelihood of extremely intense precipitation. Such time series can be used to project intensity duration curves into the future or input into stormwater models. However, few climate projection studies have explored the impact of the type of downscaling method used on the range and uncertainty of predictions for local flood protection studies. Here we present a study of the future climate flood risk at NASA Ames Research Center, located in South Bay Area, by comparing the range of predictions in extreme precipitation events calculated from three sets of time series downscaled from CMIP5 data: 1) the Bias Correction Constructed Analogs method dataset downscaled to a 1/8 degree grid (12km); 2) the Bias Correction Spatial Disaggregation method downscaled to a 1km grid; 3) a statistical model of extreme daily precipitation events and projected NOI from CMIP5 models. In addition, predicted years of extreme precipitation are used to estimate the risk of overtopping of the retention pond located on the site through simulations of the EPA SWMM hydrologic model. Preliminary results indicate that the intensity of extreme precipitation events is expected to increase and flood the NASA Ames retention pond. The results from these estimations will assist flood protection managers in planning for infrastructure adaptations.

Event- and site-specific soil wetting and seasonal change in amount of soil water

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Numerous studies have examined ways to characterize the central tendency of soil water within a field or watershed. Extreme changes in water content reveal more about water movement within the area. The purpose of this study was to determine if extreme soil water changes varied among sites, and to s...

33 CFR 100.T01-0103 - Special Local Regulation; Extreme Sailing Series Boston; Boston Harbor; Boston, MA.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... Sailing Series Boston; Boston Harbor; Boston, MA. 100.T01-0103 Section 100.T01-0103 Navigation and... NAVIGABLE WATERS § 100.T01-0103 Special Local Regulation; Extreme Sailing Series Boston; Boston Harbor... special local regulation area is designed to restrict vessel traffic, including all non-motorized vessels...

An Extreme Degree of Difficulty: The Educational Demographics of Urban Neighborhood High Schools

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Neild, Ruth Curran; Balfanz, Robert

2006-01-01

Despite the growth of a variety of alternatives to the neighborhood high school, most students in big-city school systems still attend large comprehensive high schools that serve a particular residential area. The authors contend that the extreme concentration of educational need at these schools is often overlooked by policymakers, school reform…

Soil enzyme activities during the 2011 Texas record drought/heat wave and implications to biogeochemical cycling and organic matter dynamics

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Extreme weather events such as severe droughts and heat waves may have permanent consequences on soil quality and functioning in agroecosystems. The Southern High Plains (SHP) region of Texas, U.S., a large cotton producing area, experienced a historically extreme drought and heat wave during 2011,...

Extreme hydrological changes in the southwestern US drive reductions in water supply to Southern California by mid century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pagán, Brianna R.; Ashfaq, Moetasim; Rastogi, Deeksha; Kendall, Donald R.; Kao, Shih-Chieh; Naz, Bibi S.; Mei, Rui; Pal, Jeremy S.

2016-09-01

The Southwestern United States has a greater vulnerability to climate change impacts on water security due to a reliance on snowmelt driven imported water. The State of California, which is the most populous and agriculturally productive in the United States, depends on an extensive artificial water storage and conveyance system primarily for irrigated agriculture, municipal and industrial supply and hydropower generation. Here we take an integrative high-resolution ensemble modeling approach to examine near term climate change impacts on all imported and local sources of water supply to Southern California. While annual precipitation is projected to remain the same or slightly increase, rising temperatures result in a shift towards more rainfall, reduced cold season snowpack and earlier snowmelt. Associated with these hydrological changes are substantial increases in the frequency and the intensity of both drier conditions and flooding events. The 50 year extreme daily maximum precipitation and runoff events are 1.5-6 times more likely to occur depending on the water supply basin. Simultaneously, a clear deficit in total annual runoff over mountainous snow generating regions like the Sierra Nevada is projected. On one hand, the greater probability of drought decreases imported water supply availability. On the other hand, earlier snowmelt and significantly stronger winter precipitation events pose increased flood risk requiring water releases from control reservoirs, which may potentially decrease water availability outside of the wet season. Lack of timely local water resource expansion coupled with projected climate changes and population increases may leave the area in extended periods of shortages.

Evaluation of Potential Climate Change Impacts on Particle Movement in Open Channel Flow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, E.; Tsai, C.

2014-12-01

It is important to develop a forecast model to predict the trajectory of sediment particles when extreme flow events occur. In extreme flow environments, the stochastic jump diffusion particle tracking model (SJD-PTM) can be used to model the movement of sediment particles in response to extreme events. This proposed SJD-PTM can be separated into three main parts — a drift motion, a turbulence term and a jump term due to random occurrences of extreme flow events. The study is intended to modify the jump term, which models the abrupt changes of particle position in the extreme flow environments. The frequency of extreme flow occurrences might change due to many uncertain factors such as climate change. The study attempts to use the concept of the logistic regression and the parameter of odds ratio, namely the trend magnitude to investigate the frequency change of extreme flow event occurrences and its impact on sediment particle movement. With the SJD-PTM, the ensemble mean and variance of particle trajectory can be quantified via simulations. The results show that by taking the effect of the trend magnitude into consideration, the particle position and its uncertainty may undergo a significant increase. Such findings will have many important implications to the environmental and hydraulic engineering design and planning. For instance, when the frequency of the occurrence of flow events with higher extremity increases, particles can travel further and faster downstream. It is observed that flow events with higher extremity can induce a higher degree of entrainment and particle resuspension, and consequently more significant bed and bank erosion.

Assessing the cumulative impacts of geographically isolated wetlands on watershed hydrology using the SWAT model coupled with improved wetland modules.

PubMed

Lee, S; Yeo, I-Y; Lang, M W; Sadeghi, A M; McCarty, G W; Moglen, G E; Evenson, G R

2018-06-07

Despite recognizing the importance of wetlands in the Coastal Plain of the Chesapeake Bay Watershed (CBW) in terms of ecosystem services, our understanding of wetland functions has mostly been limited to individual wetlands and overall catchment-scale wetland functions have rarely been investigated. This study is aimed at assessing the cumulative impacts of wetlands on watershed hydrology for an agricultural watershed within the Coastal Plain of the CBW using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). We employed two improved wetland modules for enhanced representation of physical processes and spatial distribution of riparian wetlands (RWs) and geographically isolated wetlands (GIWs). This study focused on GIWs as their hydrological impacts on watershed hydrology are poorly understood and GIWs are poorly protected. Multiple wetland scenarios were prepared by removing all or portions of the baseline GIW condition indicated by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service National Wetlands Inventory geospatial dataset. We further compared the impacts of GIWs and RWs on downstream flow (i.e., streamflow at the watershed outlet). Our simulation results showed that GIWs strongly influenced downstream flow by altering water transport mechanisms in upstream areas. Loss of all GIWs reduced both water routed to GIWs and water infiltrated into the soil through the bottom of GIWs, leading to an increase in surface runoff of 9% and a decrease in groundwater flow of 7% in upstream areas. These changes resulted in increased variability of downstream flow in response to extreme flow conditions. GIW loss also induced an increase in month to month variability of downstream flow and a decrease in the baseflow contribution to streamflow. Loss of all GIWs was shown to cause a greater fluctuation of downstream flow than loss of all RWs for this study site, due to a greater total water storage capacity of GIWs. Our findings indicate that GIWs play a significant role in controlling hydrological processes in upstream areas and downstream flow and, therefore, protecting GIWs is important for enhanced hydrological resilience to extreme flow conditions in this region. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

High Energy Density Physics and Exotic Acceleration Schemes

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cowan, T.; /General Atomics, San Diego; Colby, E.

2005-09-27

The High Energy Density and Exotic Acceleration working group took as our goal to reach beyond the community of plasma accelerator research with its applications to high energy physics, to promote exchange with other disciplines which are challenged by related and demanding beam physics issues. The scope of the group was to cover particle acceleration and beam transport that, unlike other groups at AAC, are not mediated by plasmas or by electromagnetic structures. At this Workshop, we saw an impressive advancement from years past in the area of Vacuum Acceleration, for example with the LEAP experiment at Stanford. And wemore » saw an influx of exciting new beam physics topics involving particle propagation inside of solid-density plasmas or at extremely high charge density, particularly in the areas of laser acceleration of ions, and extreme beams for fusion energy research, including Heavy-ion Inertial Fusion beam physics. One example of the importance and extreme nature of beam physics in HED research is the requirement in the Fast Ignitor scheme of inertial fusion to heat a compressed DT fusion pellet to keV temperatures by injection of laser-driven electron or ion beams of giga-Amp current. Even in modest experiments presently being performed on the laser-acceleration of ions from solids, mega-amp currents of MeV electrons must be transported through solid foils, requiring almost complete return current neutralization, and giving rise to a wide variety of beam-plasma instabilities. As keynote talks our group promoted Ion Acceleration (plenary talk by A. MacKinnon), which historically has grown out of inertial fusion research, and HIF Accelerator Research (invited talk by A. Friedman), which will require impressive advancements in space-charge-limited ion beam physics and in understanding the generation and transport of neutralized ion beams. A unifying aspect of High Energy Density applications was the physics of particle beams inside of solids, which is proving to be a very important field for diverse applications such as muon cooling, fusion energy research, and ultra-bright particle and radiation generation with high intensity lasers. We had several talks on these and other subjects, and many joint sessions with the Computational group, the EM Structures group, and the Beam Generation group. We summarize our groups' work in the following categories: vacuum acceleration schemes; ion acceleration; particle transport in solids; and applications to high energy density phenomena.« less

Testing the ability of a semidistributed hydrological model to simulate contributing area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mengistu, S. G.; Spence, C.

2016-06-01

A dry climate, the prevalence of small depressions, and the lack of a well-developed drainage network are characteristics of environments with extremely variable contributing areas to runoff. These types of regions arguably present the greatest challenge to properly understanding catchment streamflow generation processes. Previous studies have shown that contributing area dynamics are important for streamflow response, but the nature of the relationship between the two is not typically understood. Furthermore, it is not often tested how well hydrological models simulate contributing area. In this study, the ability of a semidistributed hydrological model, the PDMROF configuration of Environment Canada's MESH model, was tested to determine if it could simulate contributing area. The study focused on the St. Denis Creek watershed in central Saskatchewan, Canada, which with its considerable topographic depressions, exhibits wide variation in contributing area, making it ideal for this type of investigation. MESH-PDMROF was able to replicate contributing area derived independently from satellite imagery. Daily model simulations revealed a hysteretic relationship between contributing area and streamflow not apparent from the less frequent remote sensing observations. This exercise revealed that contributing area extent can be simulated by a semi-distributed hydrological model with a scheme that assumes storage capacity distribution can be represented with a probability function. However, further investigation is needed to determine if it can adequately represent the complex relationship between streamflow and contributing area that is such a key signature of catchment behavior.

Robust, Thin Optical Films for Extreme Environments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2006-01-01

The environment of space presents scientists and engineers with the challenges of a harsh, unforgiving laboratory in which to conduct their scientific research. Solar astronomy and X-ray astronomy are two of the more challenging areas into which NASA scientists delve, as the optics for this high-tech work must be extremely sensitive and accurate, yet also be able to withstand the battering dished out by radiation, extreme temperature swings, and flying debris. Recent NASA work on this rugged equipment has led to the development of a strong, thin film for both space and laboratory use.

Toward Reliable and Energy Efficient Wireless Sensing for Space and Extreme Environments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Choi, Baek-Young; Boyd, Darren; Wilkerson, DeLisa

2017-01-01

Reliability is the critical challenge of wireless sensing in space systems operating in extreme environments. Energy efficiency is another concern for battery powered wireless sensors. Considering the physics of wireless communications, we propose an approach called Software-Defined Wireless Communications (SDC) that dynamically decide a reliable channel(s) avoiding unnecessary redundancy of channels, out of multiple distinct electromagnetic frequency bands such as radio and infrared frequencies.We validate the concept with Android and Raspberry Pi sensors and pseudo extreme experiments. SDC can be utilized in many areas beyond space applications.

Soil mapping and processes modelling for sustainable land management: a review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pereira, Paulo; Brevik, Eric; Muñoz-Rojas, Miriam; Miller, Bradley; Smetanova, Anna; Depellegrin, Daniel; Misiune, Ieva; Novara, Agata; Cerda, Artemi

2017-04-01

Soil maps and models are fundamental for a correct and sustainable land management (Pereira et al., 2017). They are an important in the assessment of the territory and implementation of sustainable measures in urban areas, agriculture, forests, ecosystem services, among others. Soil maps represent an important basis for the evaluation and restoration of degraded areas, an important issue for our society, as consequence of climate change and the increasing pressure of humans on the ecosystems (Brevik et al. 2016; Depellegrin et al., 2016). The understanding of soil spatial variability and the phenomena that influence this dynamic is crucial to the implementation of sustainable practices that prevent degradation, and decrease the economic costs of soil restoration. In this context, soil maps and models are important to identify areas affected by degradation and optimize the resources available to restore them. Overall, soil data alone or integrated with data from other sciences, is an important part of sustainable land management. This information is extremely important land managers and decision maker's implements sustainable land management policies. The objective of this work is to present a review about the advantages of soil mapping and process modeling for sustainable land management. References Brevik, E., Calzolari, C., Miller, B., Pereira, P., Kabala, C., Baumgarten, A., Jordán, A. (2016) Historical perspectives and future needs in soil mapping, classification and pedological modelling, Geoderma, 264, Part B, 256-274. Depellegrin, D.A., Pereira, P., Misiune, I., Egarter-Vigl, L. (2016) Mapping Ecosystem Services in Lithuania. International Journal of Sustainable Development and World Ecology, 23, 441-455. Pereira, P., Brevik, E., Munoz-Rojas, M., Miller, B., Smetanova, A., Depellegrin, D., Misiune, I., Novara, A., Cerda, A. (2017) Soil mapping and process modelling for sustainable land management. In: Pereira, P., Brevik, E., Munoz-Rojas, M., Miller, B. (Eds.) Soil mapping and process modelling for sustainable land use management (Elsevier Publishing House) ISBN: 9780128052006

Weak linkage between the heaviest rainfall and tallest storms.

PubMed

Hamada, Atsushi; Takayabu, Yukari N; Liu, Chuntao; Zipser, Edward J

2015-02-24

Conventionally, the heaviest rainfall has been linked to the tallest, most intense convective storms. However, the global picture of the linkage between extreme rainfall and convection remains unclear. Here we analyse an 11-year record of spaceborne precipitation radar observations and establish that a relatively small fraction of extreme convective events produces extreme rainfall rates in any region of the tropics and subtropics. Robust differences between extreme rainfall and convective events are found in the rainfall characteristics and environmental conditions, irrespective of region; most extreme rainfall events are characterized by less intense convection with intense radar echoes not extending to extremely high altitudes. Rainfall characteristics and environmental conditions both indicate the importance of warm-rain processes in producing extreme rainfall rates. Our results demonstrate that, even in regions where severe convective storms are representative extreme weather events, the heaviest rainfall events are mostly associated with less intense convection.

Impact of a thermokarst lake on the soil hydrological properties in permafrost regions of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, China.

PubMed

Gao, Zeyong; Niu, Fujun; Wang, Yibo; Luo, Jing; Lin, Zhanju

2017-01-01

The formation of thermokarst lakes can degrade alpine meadow ecosystems through changes in soil water and heat properties, which might have an effect on the regional surface water and groundwater processes. In this study, a typical thermokarst lake was selected in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP), and the ecological index (S L ) was used to divide the affected areas into extremely affected, severely affected, medium-affected, lightly affected, and non-affected areas, and soil hydrological properties, including saturated hydraulic conductivity and soil water-holding capacity, were investigated. The results showed that the formation of a thermokarst lake can lead to the degradation of alpine meadows, accompanied by a change in the soil physiochemical and hydrological properties. Specifically, the soil structure turned towards loose soil and the soil nutrients decreased from non-affected areas to severely affected areas, but the soil organic matter and available potassium increased slightly in the extremely affected areas. Soil saturated hydraulic conductivity showed a 1.7- to 4.1-fold increase in the lake-surrounding areas, and the highest value (401.9cmd -1 ) was detected in the severely affected area. Soil water-holding capacity decreased gradually during the transition from the non-affected areas to the severely affected areas, but it increased slightly in the extremely affected areas. The principal component analysis showed that the plant biomass was vital to the changes in soil hydrological properties. Thus, the vegetation might serve as a link between the thermokarst lake and soil hydrological properties. In this particular case, it was concluded that the thermokarst lake adversely affected the regional hydrological services in the alpine ecosystem. These results would be useful for describing appropriate hydraulic parameters with the purpose of modeling soil water transportation more accurately in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Primary (de novo) dedifferentiated liposarcoma in the extremities: a multi-institution Tohoku Musculoskeletal Tumor Society study of 18 cases in northern Japan.

PubMed

Okada, Kyoji; Hasegawa, Tadashi; Kawai, Akira; Ogose, Akira; Nishida, Jun; Yanagisawa, Michiro; Morita, Tetsuro; Tajino, Takahiro; Tsuchiya, Takashi

2011-09-01

Dedifferentiated liposarcomas usually occur in the retroperitoneal space and relatively rarely in the extremities. We identified 18 patients with primary dedifferentiated liposarcoma in the extremities from the files of Tohoku Musculoskeletal Tumor Society and analyzed demographics, histologic findings, treatments and prognostic factors. The average follow-up period was 58 months. The subjects were 12 men and 6 women with a mean age of 65 years. All tumors were in the thigh. Nine patients noticed a rapid enlargement of the long-standing tumor. Histologic subtypes of the dedifferentiated area were undifferentiated pleomorphic sarcoma (n = 12), osteosarcoma (n = 2), rhabdomyosarcoma (n = 2), leiomyosarcoma (n = 1) and malignant peripheral nerve sheath tumor (n = 1). In the patient with rhabdomyosarcoma-like dedifferentiated area, extensive necrosis was observed after the preoperative chemotherapy. One patient who underwent marginal excision developed a local recurrence, but inadequate surgical margin was not associated with a risk of local recurrence. Three patients had lung metastasis at initial presentation, and four other patients developed lung metastases during the follow-up period. The overall survival rate was 61.1% at 5 years. On univariate analyses, large size of the dedifferentiated area (>8 cm), high MIB-1-labeling index (>30%) for the dedifferentiated area and lung metastasis at initial presentation were significantly associated with poor prognosis. Primary dedifferentiated liposarcoma in the extremities predominantly occurred in the thigh and a rapid enlargement of long-standing tumors was a characteristic symptom. Although the local behavior of these tumors was less aggressive than that of retroperitoneal dedifferentiated liposarcomas, they had a relatively high metastatic potential.

Spatially explicit scenario analysis for hydrologic services in an urbanizing agricultural watershed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qiu, J.; Booth, E.; Carpenter, S. R.; Turner, M.

2013-12-01

The sustainability of hydrologic services (benefits to people generated by terrestrial ecosystem effects on freshwater) is challenged by changes in climate and land use. Despite the importance of hydrologic services, few studies have investigated how the provision of ecosystem services related to freshwater quantity and quality may vary in magnitude and spatial pattern for alternative future trajectories. Such analyses may provide useful information for sustaining freshwater resources in the face of a complex and uncertain future. We analyzed the supply of multiple hydrologic services from 2010 to 2070 across a large urbanizing agricultural watershed in the Upper Midwest of the United States, and asked the following: (i) What are the potential trajectories for the supply of hydrologic services under contrasting but plausible future scenarios? (ii) Where on the landscape is the delivery of hydrologic services most vulnerable to future changes? The Nested Watershed scenario represents extreme climate change (warmer temperatures and more frequent extreme events) and a concerted response from institutions, whereas in the Investment in Innovation scenario, climate change is less severe and technological innovations play a major role. Despite more extreme climate in the Nested Watershed scenario, all hydrologic services (i.e., freshwater supply, surface water quality, flood regulation) were maintained or enhanced (~30%) compared to the 2010 baseline, by strict government interventions that prioritized freshwater resources. Despite less extreme climate in the Investment in Innovation scenario and advances in green technology, only surface water quality and flood regulation were maintained or increased (~80%); freshwater supply declined by 25%, indicating a potential future tradeoff between water quality and quantity. Spatially, the locations of greatest vulnerability (i.e., decline) differed by service and among scenarios. In the Nested Watershed scenario, although freshwater supply and surface water quality were sustained or enhanced overall, these hydrologic services declined in ~60% and 20% of the landscape, respectively. The greatest improvement for most hydrologic services corresponded to areas of restored wetland, forest and perennial crops, which were less vulnerable to future degradation. In the Investment in Innovation scenario, freshwater supply declined in almost the entire watershed; improvement of surface water quality and flood regulation occurred mainly in urban areas, where highly engineered systems made them less vulnerable. Overall, our results indicated that hydrologic services will respond differently to future climate and land-use change, and sustaining one may involve tradeoffs of another. Technological progress can conserve particular services but might not be the panacea for the future. How society reacts in the face of changes can have an important role in determining the pathways to the future and the provision and spatial patterns of ecosystem services.

Identification of Atmospheric Blocking Events and its Influence on Temperature and Precipitation Extremes in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Richling, Andy; Rust, Henning W.; Bissolli, Peter; Ulbrich, Uwe

2017-04-01

Atmospheric blocking plays a crucial role in climate variability in the mid-latitudes. Especially meteorological extremes like heatwaves, cold spells and droughts are often related to persistent and stationary blocking events. For climate monitoring it is important to identify and characterise such blocking events as well as to analyse the relationship between blockings and meteorological extremes in a quantitative way. In this study we identify atmospheric blocking events and analyse the influence on temperature and precipitation extremes with statistical models. For the detection of atmospheric blocking events, we apply modified 2-dimensional versions of commonly used blocking indices suggested by Tibaldi and Molteni (1990) as well as Masato et al. (2013) on daily fields of 500hPa geopotential heights of the Era-Interim reanalysis dataset. A result is a list of blocking events with a multidimensional index characterising area, intensity, location and duration and maps of these parameters, which are intended to be used operationally for regular climate diagnostics at the German Meteorological Service. In addition, relationships between grid-point-base blocking frequency, intensity and location parameters and the number of daily temperature/precipitation extremes based on the E-OBS gridded dataset are investigated using general linear models on a monthly time scale. The number of counts as well as probabilities of occurrence of daily extremes within a certain calendar month will be analysed in this framework. G. Masato, B. J. Hoskins, and T. Woollings. Winter and Summer Northern Hemisphere Blocking in CMIP5 Models. J. Climate, 26:7044-7059, 2013a. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D- 12-00466.1. G. Masato, B. J. Hoskins, and T. Woollings. Wave-Breaking Characteristics of Northern Hemi- sphere Winter Blocking: A Two-Dimensional Approach. J. Climate, 26:4535-4549, 2013b. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00240.1. S. Tibaldi and F. Molteni. On the operational predictability of blocking. Tellus, 42A:343-365, 1990. doi: 10.1034/j.1600-0870.1990.t01-2-00003.x.

Amputation: Not a failure for severe lower extremity combat injury.

PubMed

van Dongen, Thijs T C F; Huizinga, Eelco P; de Kruijff, Loes G M; van der Krans, Arie C; Hoogendoorn, Jochem M; Leenen, Luke P H; Hoencamp, Rigo

2017-02-01

The use of improvised explosive devices is a frequent method of insurgents to inflict harm on deployed military personnel. Consequently, lower extremity injuries make up the majority of combat related trauma. The wounding pattern of an explosion is not often encountered in a civilian population and can lead to substantial disability. It is therefore important to study the impact of these lower extremity injuries and their treatment (limb salvage versus amputation) on functional outcome and quality of life. All Dutch repatriated service members receiving treatment for wounds on the lower extremity sustained in the Afghan theater between august 2005 and August 2014, were invited to participate in this observational cohort study. We conducted a survey regarding their physical and mental health using the Short Form health survey 36, EuroQoL 6 dimensions and Lower Extremity Functional Scale questionnaires. Results were collated in a specifically designed electronic database combined with epidemiology and hospital statistics gathered from the archive of the Central Military Hospital. Statistical analyses were performed to identify differences between combat and non-combat related injuries and between limb salvage treatment and amputation. In comparison with non-battle injury patients, battle casualties were significantly younger of age, sustained more severe injuries, needed more frequent operations and clinical rehabilitation. Their long-term outcome scores in areas concerning well-being, social and cognitive functioning, were significantly lower. Regarding treatment, amputees experienced higher physical well-being and less pain compared to those treated with limb salvage surgery. Sustaining a combat injury to the lower extremity can lead to partial or permanent dysfunction. However, wounded service members, amputees included, are able to achieve high levels of activity and participation in society, proving a remarkable resilience. These long-term results demonstrate that amputation is not a failure for casualty and surgeon, and strengthen a life before limb (damage control surgery) mindset in the initial phase. For future research, we recommend the use of adequate coding and injury scoring systems to predict outcome and give insight in the attributes that are supportive for the resilience that is needed to cope with a serious battle injury. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An Examination of Extreme Fire Behavior and its Impact on Smoke Injection Altitude using Remote Sensing and Meteorological Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peterson, D. A.; Hyer, E. J.; Campbell, J. R.; Fromm, M. D.; Hair, J. W.; Butler, C. F.; Fenn, M. A.

2014-12-01

A variety of regional smoke forecasting applications are currently available to identify air quality, visibility, and societal impacts during large fire events. However, these systems typically assume persistent fire activity, and therefore can have large errors before, during, and after short-term periods of extreme fire behavior. This study employs a wide variety of ground, airborne, and satellite observations, including data collected during a major NASA airborne and field campaign, to examine the conditions required for both extreme spread and pyrocumulonimbus (pyroCb) development. Results highlight the importance of upper-level and nocturnal meteorology, as well as the limitations of traditional fire weather indices. Increasing values of fire radiative power (FRP) at the pixel and sub-pixel level are shown to systematically correspond to higher altitude smoke plumes, and an increased probability of injection above the boundary layer. Lidar data collected during the 2013 Rim Fire, one of the most severe fire events in California's history, show that high FRP observed during extreme spread can facilitate long-distance smoke transport, but fails to loft smoke to the altitude of a large pyroCb. The most extreme fire spread was also observed on days without pyroCb activity or significant regional convection. By incorporating additional fire events across North America, conflicting hypotheses surrounding the primary source of moisture during pyroCb development are examined. The majority of large pyroCbs, and therefore the highest direct injection altitude of smoke particles, is shown to occur with conditions very similar to those that produce dry thunderstorms. The current suite of automated forecasting applications predict only general trends in fire behavior, and specifically do not predict (1) extreme fire spread events and (2) injection of smoke to high altitudes. While (1) and (2) are related, results show that they are not predicted by the same set of conditions and variables. The combination of meteorology from numerical forecast models and satellite observations exhibits great potential for improving regional forecasts of fire behavior and smoke production in automated systems, especially in remote areas where detailed observations are unavailable

Monitoring Changes of Tropical Extreme Rainfall Events Using Differential Absorption Barometric Radar (DiBAR)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lin, Bing; Harrah, Steven; Lawrence, R. Wes; Hu, Yongxiang; Min, Qilong

2015-01-01

This work studies the potential of monitoring changes in tropical extreme rainfall events such as tropical storms from space using a Differential-absorption BArometric Radar (DiBAR) operating at 50-55 gigahertz O2 absorption band to remotely measure sea surface air pressure. Air pressure is among the most important variables that affect atmospheric dynamics, and currently can only be measured by limited in-situ observations over oceans. Analyses show that with the proposed radar the errors in instantaneous (averaged) pressure estimates can be as low as approximately 5 millibars (approximately 1 millibar) under all weather conditions. With these sea level pressure measurements, the forecasts, analyses and understanding of these extreme events in both short and long time scales can be improved. Severe weathers, especially hurricanes, are listed as one of core areas that need improved observations and predictions in WCRP (World Climate Research Program) and NASA Decadal Survey (DS) and have major impacts on public safety and national security through disaster mitigation. Since the development of the DiBAR concept about a decade ago, our team has made substantial progress in advancing the concept. Our feasibility assessment clearly shows the potential of sea surface barometry using existing radar technologies. We have developed a DiBAR system design, fabricated a Prototype-DiBAR (P-DiBAR) for proof-of-concept, conducted lab, ground and airborne P-DiBAR tests. The flight test results are consistent with our instrumentation goals. Observational system simulation experiments for space DiBAR performance show substantial improvements in tropical storm predictions, not only for the hurricane track and position but also for the hurricane intensity. DiBAR measurements will lead us to an unprecedented level of the prediction and knowledge on tropical extreme rainfall weather and climate conditions.

THE DEFINITION AND INTERPRETATION OF TERRESTRIAL ENVIRONMENT DESIGN INPUTS FOR VEHICLE DESIGN CONSIDERATIONS

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johnson, Dale L.; Keller, Vernon W.; Vaughan, William W.

2005-01-01

The description and interpretation of the terrestrial environment (0-90 km altitude) is an important driver of aerospace vehicle structural, control, and thermal system design. NASA is currently in the process of reviewing the meteorological information acquired over the past decade and producing an update to the 1993 Terrestrial Environment Guidelines for Aerospace Vehicle Design and Development handbook. This paper addresses the contents of this updated handbook, with special emphasis on new material being included in the areas of atmospheric thermodynamic models, wind dynamics, atmospheric composition, atmospheric electricity, cloud phenomena, atmospheric extremes, sea state, etc. In addition, the respective engineering design elements will be discussed relative to the importance and influence of terrestrial environment inputs that require consideration and interpretation for design applications. Specific lessons learned that have contributed to the advancements made in the acquisition, interpretation, application and awareness of terrestrial environment inputs for aerospace engineering applications are discussed.

Actual and future trends of extreme values of temperature for the NW Iberian Peninsula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taboada, J.; Brands, S.; Lorenzo, N.

2009-09-01

It is now very well established that yearly averaged temperatures are increasing due to anthropogenic climate change. In the area of Galicia (NW Spain) this trend has also been determined. The main objective of this work is to assess actual and future trends of different extreme indices of temperature, which are of curcial importance for many impact studies. Station data for the study was provided by the CLIMA database of the regional government of Galicia (NW Spain). As direct GCM-output significantly underestimates the variance of daily surface temperature variables in NW Spain, these variables are obtained by applying a statistical downscaling technique (analog method), using 850hPa temperature and mean sea level pressure as combined predictors. The predictor fields have been extracted from three GCMs participating in the IPCC AR4 under A1, A1B and A2 scenarios. The definitions of the extreme indices have been taken from the joint CCl/CLIVAR/JCOMM Expert Team (ET) on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) This group has defined a set of standard extreme values to simplify intercomparisons of data from different regions of the world. For the temperatures in the period 1960-2006, results show a significant increase of the number of days with maximum temperatures above the 90th percentile. Furthermore, a significant decrease of the days with maximum temperatures below the 10th percentile has been found. The tendencies of minimum temperatures are reverse: less nights with minimum temperatures below 10th percentile, and more with minimum temperatures above 90th percentile. Those tendencies can be observed all over the year, but are more pronounced in summer. We have also calculated the relationship between the above mentioned extreme values and different teleconnection patterns appearing in the North Atlantic area. Results show that local tendencies are associated with trends of EA (Eastern Atlantic) and SCA (Scandinavian) patterns. NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) has also some relationship with these tendencies, but only related with cold days and nights in winter. The results of the applied statistical downscaling technique indicate that observed trends in maximum and minimum temperatures in NW Spain are expected to continue in the next decades because of anthropogenic climate change. The common tendency is that hot days increase while cold nights diminish all over the year. As expected, these tendencies change between different scenarios: they are more marked for A2 and A1B scenarios than for the for the B1 scenario. Moreover, the three models behave different under the same scenario, leaving a great uncertainty for the future. Nevertheless, we conclude that more frequent hot days, as well as an increasing probability of summertime heat waves are to be expected in the next decades. Cold days tend to diminish, decreasing the probability of wintertime cold waves and leaving a greater part of the area under study without frost days throughout the year.

The Importance of Visit Notes on Patient Portals for Engaging Less Educated or Nonwhite Patients: Survey Study

PubMed Central

Gerard, Macda; Chimowitz, Hannah; Fossa, Alan; Bourgeois, Fabienne; Fernandez, Leonor

2018-01-01

Background OpenNotes, a national initiative to share clinicians’ visit notes with patients, can improve patient engagement, but effects on vulnerable populations are not known very well. Objective Our aim is to examine the importance of visit notes to nonwhite and less educated patients. Methods Patients at an urban academic medical center with an active patient portal account and ≥1 available ambulatory visit note over the prior year were surveyed during June 2016 until September 2016. The survey was designed with patients and families and assessed importance of reading notes (scale 0-10) for (1) understanding health conditions, (2) feeling informed about care, (3) understanding the provider’s thought process, (4) remembering the plan of care, and (5) making decisions about care. We compared the proportion of patients reporting 9-10 (extremely important) for each item stratified by education level, race/ethnicity, and self-reported health. Principal component analysis and correlation measures supported a summary score for the 5 items (Cronbach alpha=.93). We examined factors associated with rating notes as extremely important to engage in care using logistic regression. Results Of 24,722 patients, 6913 (27.96%) completed the survey. The majority (6736/6913, 97.44%) read at least one note. Among note readers, 74.0% (727/982) of patients with ≤high school education, 70.7% (130/184) of black patients, and 69.9% (153/219) of Hispanic/Latino patients reported that notes are extremely important to feel informed about their care. The majority of less educated and nonwhite patients reported notes as extremely important to remember the care plan (62.4%, 613/982 ≤high school education; 62.0%, 114/184 black patients; and 61.6%, 135/219 Hispanic/Latino patients) and to make care decisions (62.3%, 612/982; 59.8%, 110/184; and 58.5%, 128/219, respectively, and P<.003 for all comparisons to more educated and white patients, respectively). Among patients with the poorest self-reported health, 65.9% (499/757) found notes extremely important to be informed and to understand the provider. On multivariable modeling, less educated patients were nearly three times as likely to report notes were extremely important to engage in care compared with the most educated patients (odds ratio [OR] 2.9, 95% CI 2.4-3.3). Nonwhite patients were twice as likely to report the same compared with white patients (OR 2.0, 95% CI 1.5-2.7 [black] and OR 2.2, 95% CI 1.6-2.9 [Hispanic/Latino and Asian], P<.001 for each comparison). Healthier patients, women, older patients, and those who read more notes were more likely to find notes extremely important to engage in care. Conclusions Less educated and nonwhite patients using the portal each assigned higher importance to reading notes for several health behaviors than highly educated and white patients, and may find transparent notes especially valuable for understanding their health and engaging in their care. Facilitating access to notes may improve engagement in health care for some vulnerable populations who have historically been more challenging to reach. PMID:29793900

A place for marriage and family services in employee assistance programs (EAPs): a survey of EAP client problems and needs.

PubMed

Shumway, Sterling T; Wampler, Richard S; Dersch, Charette; Arredondo, Rudy

2004-01-01

Marriage and family services have not been widely recognized as part of employee assistance programs (EAP), although family and relational problems are widely cited as sources of problems on the job. EAP clients (N = 800, 97% self-referred) indicated how much family, psychological/emotional, drug, alcohol, employment-related, legal, and medical problems troubled them and the need for services in each area. Psychological/emotional (66%) and family (65%) problem areas frequently were rated "considerable" or "extreme." Both areas were rated as "considerable" or "extreme" by 48.6% of participants. In view of the evidence that marriage and family services can be effective with both family and psychological/emotional problems, professionals who are competent to provide such services have much to offer EAP programs.

Wind-driven circulation patterns in a shallow estuarine lake: St Lucia, South Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schoen, Julia H.; Stretch, Derek D.; Tirok, Katrin

2014-06-01

The spatiotemporal structure of wind-driven circulation patterns and associated water exchanges or residence times can drive important bio-hydrodynamic interactions in shallow lakes and estuaries. The St Lucia estuarine lake in South Africa is an example of such a system. It is a UNESCO World Heritage Site and RAMSAR wetland of international importance but no detailed research on its circulation patterns has previously been undertaken. In this study, a hydrodynamic model was used to investigate the structure of these circulations to provide insights into their role in transport and water exchange processes. A strong diurnal temporal pattern of wind speeds, together with directional switching between two dominant directions, drives intermittent water exchanges and mixing between the lake basins. “High speed flows in shallow nearshore areas with slower upwind counter-flows in deeper areas, linked by circulatory gyres, are key features of the circulation”. These patterns are strongly influenced by the complex geometry of St Lucia and constrictions in the system. Water exchange time scales are non-homogeneous with some basin extremities having relatively long residence times. The influence of the circulation patterns on biological processes is discussed.

Inorganic pollution around the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau: An overview of the current observations.

PubMed

Wu, Jun; Duan, Dongping; Lu, Jian; Luo, Yongming; Wen, Xiaohu; Guo, Xiaoying; Boman, Brian J

2016-04-15

The Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is the highest geographical unit in the world. Thus, it serves an important role in evaluating long-term ecologic conditions and environmental status and changes over time. This study summarizes major and trace element concentrations in biota and in water and soil. It also pays attention to gaseous pollutant and particle concentrations in air around the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. The degree of soil heavy metal contamination and the water heavy metal hazard index were respectively evaluated. The contamination degrees of two sampling areas around the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau reached extremely high levels with soil mCd (modified degree of contamination) values exceeding 20. Surprisingly, over 54% of sampling areas showed moderate or more serious soil contamination degree (mCd>1.5). Moreover, the hazard indexes of two important rivers were 1.56 and 7.59, reaching unacceptable level. The potential risk might be beyond our expectation. Therefore, it should be an urgent and top priority to identify and confirm possible pollution sources around the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Then, it is imperative to implement feasible and effective environmental quality control strategies. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The fragmentation of Pangaea and Mesozoic terrestrial vertebrate biodiversity

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

During the Mesozoic (242–66 million years ago), terrestrial regions underwent a massive shift in their size, position and connectivity. At the beginning of the era, the land masses were joined into a single supercontinent called Pangaea. However, by the end of the Mesozoic, terrestrial regions had become highly fragmented, both owing to the drifting apart of the continental plates and the extremely high sea levels that flooded and divided many regions. How terrestrial biodiversity was affected by this fragmentation and large-scale flooding of the Earth's landmasses is uncertain. Based on a model using the species–area relationship (SAR), terrestrial vertebrate biodiversity would be expected to nearly double through the Mesozoic owing to continental fragmentation, despite a decrease of 24% in total terrestrial area. Previous studies of Mesozoic vertebrates have generally found increases in terrestrial diversity towards the end of the era, although these increases are often attributed to intrinsic or climatic factors. Instead, continental fragmentation over this time may largely explain any observed increase in terrestrial biodiversity. This study demonstrates the importance that non-intrinsic effects can have on the taxonomic success of a group, and the importance of geography to understanding past biodiversity. PMID:27651536

The fragmentation of Pangaea and Mesozoic terrestrial vertebrate biodiversity.

PubMed

Vavrek, Matthew J

2016-09-01

During the Mesozoic (242-66 million years ago), terrestrial regions underwent a massive shift in their size, position and connectivity. At the beginning of the era, the land masses were joined into a single supercontinent called Pangaea. However, by the end of the Mesozoic, terrestrial regions had become highly fragmented, both owing to the drifting apart of the continental plates and the extremely high sea levels that flooded and divided many regions. How terrestrial biodiversity was affected by this fragmentation and large-scale flooding of the Earth's landmasses is uncertain. Based on a model using the species-area relationship (SAR), terrestrial vertebrate biodiversity would be expected to nearly double through the Mesozoic owing to continental fragmentation, despite a decrease of 24% in total terrestrial area. Previous studies of Mesozoic vertebrates have generally found increases in terrestrial diversity towards the end of the era, although these increases are often attributed to intrinsic or climatic factors. Instead, continental fragmentation over this time may largely explain any observed increase in terrestrial biodiversity. This study demonstrates the importance that non-intrinsic effects can have on the taxonomic success of a group, and the importance of geography to understanding past biodiversity. © 2016 The Author(s).

Adhesion in ceramics and magnetic media

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Miyoshi, Kazuhisa

1989-01-01

When a ceramic is brought into contact with a metal or a polymeric material such as a magnetic medium, strong bonds form between the materials. For ceramic-to-metal contacts, adhesion and friction are strongly dependent on the ductility of the metals. Hardness of metals plays a much more important role in adhesion and friction than does the surface energy of metals. Adhesion, friction, surface energy, and hardness of a metal are all related to its Young's modulus and shear modulus, which have a marked dependence on the electron configuration of the metal. An increase in shear modulus results in a decrease in area of contact that is greater than the corresponding increase in surface energy (the fond energy) with shear modulus. Consequently, the adhesion and friction decrease with increasing shear modulus. For ceramics in contact with polymeric magnetic tapes, environment is extremely important. For example, a nitrogen environment reduces adhesion and friction when ferrite contacts polymeric tape, whereas a vacuum environment strengthens the ferrite-to-tape adhesion and increases friction. Adhesion and friction are strongly dependent on the particle loading of the tape. An increase in magnetic particle concentration increases the complex modulus of the tape, and a lower real area of contact and lower friction result.

GIS for the Assessment of the Groundwater Recharge Potential Zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, C.; Yeh, H.; Chen, J.; Hsu, K.

2008-12-01

Water resources in Taiwan are unevenly distributed in spatial and temporal domains. Effectively utilizing the water resources is an imperative task due to climate change. At present, groundwater contributes 34% of the total annual water supply and is an important fresh water resource. However, over-exploitation has decreased groundwater availability and has led to land subsidence. Assessing the potential zone of groundwater recharge is extremely important for the protection of water quality and the management of groundwater systems. The Chih-Pen Creek basin in eastern Taiwan is examined in this study to assess its groundwater resources potential. Remote sensing and the Geographical Information System (GIS) are used to integrate five contributing factors: lithology, land cover/land use, lineaments, drainage, and slope. The weights of factors contributing to the groundwater recharge are derived using aerial photos, geology maps, a land use database, and field verification. The resultant map of the groundwater potential zone demonstrates that the highest recharge potential area is located towards the downstream regions in the basin because of the high infiltration rates caused by gravelly sand and agricultural land use in these regions. In contrast, the least effective recharge potential area is in upstream regions due to the low infiltration of limestone.

DayRec: An Interface for Exploring United States Record-Maximum/Minimum Daily Temperatures

DOE Data Explorer

Kaiser, Dale [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

2015-01-01

Like politics, you might say that all climate is local. As researchers seek to help the public better understand climate and climate change, a sensible approach would include helping people know more about changes in their own backyards. High and low temperatures are something that all of us pay attention to each day; when they are extreme (flirting with or setting records) they generate tremendous interest, largely because of the potential for significant impacts on human health, the environment, and built infrastructure. Changes through time in record high and low temperatures (extremes) are also an important manifestation of climate change (Sect. 3.8 in Trenberth et al. 2007; Peterson et al. 2008; Peterson et al. 2012). Meehl et al. (2009) found that currently, about twice as many high temperature records are being set as low temperature records over the conterminous U.S. (lower 48 states) as a whole. As the climate warms further, this ratio is expected to multiply, mainly because when the whole temperature distribution for a location or region shifts, it changes the "tails" of the distribution (in the case of warming this means fewer extreme cold temperatures and more extreme hot temperatures; see Page 2, Figure ES.1 of Karl et al. 2008). The Meehl et al. (2009) findings were covered pretty well by the online media, but, as is the case for all types of scientifc studies, it's safe to say that most of the public are not aware of these basic findings, and they would benefit from additional ways to get climate extremes information for their own areas and assess it. One such way is the National Climatic Data Center's (NCDC) U.S. Records Look-Up page. But how do most people typically hear about their area's high and low temperature records? Likely via the evening news, when their local on-air meteorologist notes the high/low for the day at a nearby airport then gives the years when the all-time high and low for the date were set (perhaps not at that same airport). The year of the record is an interesting bit of information on its own but it doesn't do much to place things in context. What about the local history of record temperatures and how things may be changing? Here we present a daily temperature records data product that we hope will serve the scientist and non-scientist alike in exploring and analyzing high and low temperature records and trends at hundreds of locations across the U.S.

Two dimensional modelling of flood flows and suspended sediment transport: the case of Brenta River

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

D'Alpaos, L.; Martini, P.; Carniello, L.

2003-04-01

The paper deals with numerical modelling of flood waves and suspended sediment in plain river basins. The two dimensional depth integrated momentum and continuity equations, modified to take into account of the bottom irregularities that strongly affect the hydrodynamic and the continuity in partially dry areas (for example, during the first stages of a plain flooding and in tidal flows), are solved with a standard Galerkin finite element method using a semi-implicit numerical scheme and considering the role both of the small channel network and the regulation dispositive on the flooding wave propagation. Transport of suspended sediment and bed evolution are coupled with the flood propagation through the convection-dispersion equation and the Exner's equation. Results of a real case study are presented in which the effects of extreme flood of Brenta River (Italy) are examinated. The flooded areas (urban and rural areas) are identified and a mitigation solution based on a diversion channel flowing into Venice Lagoon is proposed. We show that this solution strongly reduces the flood risk in the downstream areas and can provide an important sediment source to the Venice Lagoon. Finally, preliminary results of the sediment dispersion in the Venice Lagoon are presented.

High-pressure lime injection.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1965-08-01

The presence of unstable soils in many areas of Louisiana results in numerous problems in design and construction in these areas. These problem soils are primarily of two categories, the first of which consists of the high clay contents and extreme p...

The world at 1.5°C: Understanding its regional dimensions and driving processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seneviratne, S. I.; Wartenburger, R.; Vogel, M.; Hirsch, A.; Guillod, B.; Donat, M.; Pitman, A. J.; Davin, E.; Greve, P.; Hirschi, M.

2017-12-01

This presentation reviews the available evidence regarding projected regional changes in climate extremes at 1.5°C vs higher levels of warming based on recent analyses (Seneviratne et al. 2016; Wartenburger et al., submitted; Greve et al., submitted). In several regions, significant differences in the occurrence of climate extremes can be identified already for half a degree of warming when assessing changes at 1.5°C vs 2°C global warming. An important feature is the much stronger warming of hot extremes in several continental regions compared to the global mean warming, which implies that temperature extremes can warm regionally by much more than 1.5°C, even if global temperature warming is stabilized at this level (e.g. up to 6°C for certain models in the Arctic). This feature is due to a combination of feedbacks and internal climate variability. We highlight in particular the importance of land-climate feedbacks for projected changes in hot extremes in mid-latitude regions (Vogel et al. 2017). Because of the strong effects of land processes on regional changes in temperature extremes, changes in land surface properties, including land use changes, are found to be particularly important for projections in low-emissions scenarios (Hirsch et al. 2017; Guillod et al., submitted). References: Greve, P., et al.: Regional scaling of annual mean precipitation and water availability with global temperature change. Submitted. Guillod, B.P., et al.: Land use in low climate warming targets critical for hot extreme projections. Submitted. Hirsch, A.L., et al., 2017: Can climate-effective land management reduce regional warming? J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 122, 2269-2288, doi:10.1002/2016JD026125. Seneviratne, S.I., et al., 2016: Allowable CO2 emissions based on regional and impact-related climate targets. Nature, 529, 477-483, doi:10.1038/nature16542. Vogel, M.M., et al., 2017: Regional amplification of projected changes in extreme temperatures strongly controlled by soil moisture-temperature feedbacks. Geophysical Research Letters, 44(3), 1511-1519. Wartenburger, R., et al.: Changes in regional climate extremes as a function of global mean temperature: an interactive plotting framework. Geosci. Model Dev. - Submitt.,

Space Vehicle Terrestrial Environment Design Requirements Guidelines

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johnson, Dale L.; Keller, Vernon W.; Vaughan, William W.

2006-01-01

The terrestrial environment is an important driver of space vehicle structural, control, and thermal system design. NASA is currently in the process of producing an update to an earlier Terrestrial Environment Guidelines for Aerospace Vehicle Design and Development Handbook. This paper addresses the contents of this updated handbook, with special emphasis on new material being included in the areas of atmospheric thermodynamic models, wind dynamics, atmospheric composition, atmospheric electricity, cloud phenomena, atmospheric extremes, and sea state. In addition, the respective engineering design elements are discussed relative to terrestrial environment inputs that require consideration. Specific lessons learned that have contributed to the advancements made in the application and awareness of terrestrial environment inputs for aerospace engineering applications are presented.

[Packaging: the guarantee of medicinal quality].

PubMed

Chaumeil, J-C

2003-01-01

Primary packaging guarantees the pharmaceutical quality of the medicinal preparation received by the patient. Glass bottles containing parenteral solutions for example ensure that sterility, quality and optimal stability are preserved until administration. Recent innovations in materials research has lead to improvements in parenteral infusions. Multicompartmental bags, allowing extemporaneous mixtures without opening the container, constitute an extremely beneficial advance for the patient, allowing administration of mixtures with solutions and emulsions which would be unstable if stored. Metered dose pressurized inhalers are an excellent example of drug administration devices designed specifically to ensure quality and bioavailability. These examples illustrate the important role of primary packaging and demonstrate the usefulness of research and development in this area.

Vaccination Strategies: a comparative study in an epidemic scenario

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prates, D. B.; Jardim, C. L. T. F.; Ferreira, L. A. F.; da Silva, J. M.; Kritz, M. V.

2016-08-01

Epidemics are an extremely important matter of study within the Mathematical Modeling area and can be widely found in the literature. Some epidemiological models use differential equations, which are very sensible to parameters, to represent and describe the diseases mathematically. For this work, a variation of the SIR model is discussed and applied to a certain epidemic scenario, wherein vaccination is introduced through two different strategies: constant vaccination and vaccination in pulses. Other epidemiological and population aspects are also considered, such as mortality/natality and infection rates. The analysis and results are performed through numerical solutions of the model and a special attention is given to the discussion generated by the paramenters variation.

Diagnostic Dilemmas and Cultural Diversity in Emergency Rooms

PubMed Central

Weaver, Charlotte; Sklar, David

1980-01-01

Language and cultural beliefs play an extremely important role in the interaction between patients from diverse cultural groups and physicians. Especially in emergency rooms, there are many dangers in missed communications. A patient from a foreign culture, especially one who does not speak English, often expresses symptoms in ways that are unfamiliar to many American physicians. Specific areas of cultural vulnerability can be identified for the major ethnic groups in the United States as they interact with the scientific medical system. A short review of folk medical beliefs and recommendations for improving diagnostic accuracy and treatment may assist emergency room staffs in offering care that is culturally acceptable to patients of diverse ethnic backgrounds. PMID:7347053

Book Review: Book review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tweed, Fiona S.

2017-08-01

This special edition of Zeitschrift für Geomorphologie (ZfG) is based on presentations given at a conference entitled 'Hydrological Extreme Events in Historic and Prehistoric Times' which took place in Bonn in June 2014. The volume consists of an editorial introduction and nine research papers reflecting a range of approaches to understanding past events, including modelling, analysis of historical data and studies that focus on a consistent approach to collection and analysis of data from different areas. The HEX project, which generated the conference in Bonn, adopted a multidisciplinary approach and this is reflected in the collection of papers, which emphasise the importance of combining a range of approaches and analyses as tools for decoding both landscapes and processes.

Improving Surface Mass Balance Over Ice Sheets and Snow Depth on Sea Ice

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Koenig, Lora Suzanne; Box, Jason; Kurtz, Nathan

2013-01-01

Surface mass balance (SMB) over ice sheets and snow on sea ice (SOSI) are important components of the cryosphere. Large knowledge gaps remain in scientists' abilities to monitor SMB and SOSI, including insufficient measurements and difficulties with satellite retrievals. On ice sheets, snow accumulation is the sole mass gain to SMB, and meltwater runoff can be the dominant single loss factor in extremely warm years such as 2012. SOSI affects the growth and melt cycle of the Earth's polar sea ice cover. The summer of 2012 saw the largest satellite-recorded melt area over the Greenland ice sheet and the smallest satellite-recorded Arctic sea ice extent, making this meeting both timely and relevant.

Characterizing the Spatial Contiguity of Extreme Precipitation over the US in the Recent Past

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Touma, D. E.; Swain, D. L.; Diffenbaugh, N. S.

2016-12-01

The spatial characteristics of extreme precipitation over an area can define the hydrologic response in a basin, subsequently affecting the flood risk in the region. Here, we examine the spatial extent of extreme precipitation in the US by defining its "footprint": a contiguous area of rainfall exceeding a certain threshold (e.g., 90th percentile) on a given day. We first characterize the climatology of extreme rainfall footprint sizes across the US from 1980-2015 using Daymet, a high-resolution observational gridded rainfall dataset. We find that there are distinct regional and seasonal differences in average footprint sizes of extreme daily rainfall. In the winter, the Midwest shows footprints exceeding 500,000 sq. km while the Front Range exhibits footprints of 10,000 sq. km. Alternatively, the summer average footprint size is generally smaller and more uniform across the US, ranging from 10,000 sq. km in the Southwest to 100,000 sq. km in Montana and North Dakota. Moreover, we find that there are some significant increasing trends of average footprint size between 1980-2015, specifically in the Southwest in the winter and the Northeast in the spring. While gridded daily rainfall datasets allow for a practical framework in calculating footprint size, this calculation heavily depends on the interpolation methods that have been used in creating the dataset. Therefore, we assess footprint size using the GHCN-Daily station network and use geostatistical methods to define footprints of extreme rainfall directly from station data. Compared to the findings from Daymet, preliminary results using this method show fewer small daily footprint sizes over the US while large footprints are of similar number and magnitude to Daymet. Overall, defining the spatial characteristics of extreme rainfall as well as observed and expected changes in these characteristics allows us to better understand the hydrologic response to extreme rainfall and how to better characterize flood risks.

Effect of living area and sports club participation on physical fitness in children: a 4 year longitudinal study

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Cross-sectional studies detected associations between physical fitness, living area, and sports participation in children. Yet, their scientific value is limited because the identification of cause-and-effect relationships is not possible. In a longitudinal approach, we examined the effects of living area and sports club participation on physical fitness development in primary school children from classes 3 to 6. Methods One-hundred and seventy-two children (age: 9–12 years; sex: 69 girls, 103 boys) were tested for their physical fitness (i.e., endurance [9-min run], speed [50-m sprint], lower- [triple hop] and upper-extremity muscle strength [1-kg ball push], flexibility [stand-and-reach], and coordination [star coordination run]). Living area (i.e., urban or rural) and sports club participation were assessed using parent questionnaire. Results Over the 4 year study period, urban compared to rural children showed significantly better performance development for upper- (p = 0.009, ES = 0.16) and lower-extremity strength (p < 0.001, ES = 0.22). Further, significantly better performance development were found for endurance (p = 0.08, ES = 0.19) and lower-extremity strength (p = 0.024, ES = 0.23) for children continuously participating in sports clubs compared to their non-participating peers. Conclusions Our findings suggest that sport club programs with appealing arrangements appear to represent a good means to promote physical fitness in children living in rural areas. PMID:24886425