Local finite-amplitude wave activity as an objective diagnostic of midlatitude extreme weather

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chen, Gang; Lu, Jian; Burrows, Alex D.

Midlatitude extreme weather events are responsible for a large part of climate related damage, yet our understanding of these extreme events is limited, partly due to the lack of a theoretical basis for midlatitude extreme weather. In this letter, the local finite-amplitude wave activity (LWA) of Huang and Nakamura [2015] is introduced as a diagnostic of the 500-hPa geopotential height (Z500) to characterizing midlatitude weather events. It is found that the LWA climatology and its variability associated with the Arctic Oscillation (AO) agree broadly with the previously reported blocking frequency in literature. There is a strong seasonal and spatial dependencemore » in the trend13 s of LWA in recent decades. While there is no observational evidence for a hemispheric-scale increase in wave amplitude, robust trends in wave activity can be identified at the regional scales, with important implications for regional climate change.« less

Nutrition security under extreme events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martinez, A.

2017-12-01

Nutrition security under extreme events. Zero hunger being one of the Sustainable Development Goal from the United Nations, food security has become a trending research topic. However extreme events impact on global food security is not yet 100% understood and there is a lack of comprehension of the underlying mechanisms of global food trade and nutrition security to improve countries resilience to extreme events. In a globalized world, food is still a highly regulated commodity and a strategic resource. A drought happening in a net food-exporter will have little to no effect on its own population but the repercussion on net food-importers can be extreme. In this project, we propose a methodology to describe and quantify the impact of a local drought to human health at a global scale. For this purpose, nutrition supply and global trade data from FAOSTAT have been used with domestic food production from national agencies and FAOSTAT, global precipitation from the Climate Research Unit and health data from the World Health Organization. A modified Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) has been developed to measure the level of resilience of one country to a drought happening in another country. This index describes how a country is dependent of importation and how diverse are its importation. Losses of production and exportation due to extreme events have been calculated using yield data and a simple food balance at country scale. Results show that countries the most affected by global droughts are the one with the highest dependency to one exporting country. Changes induced by droughts also disturbed their domestic proteins, fat and calories supply resulting most of the time in a higher intake of calories or fat over proteins.

Temporal variability in the suspended sediment load and streamflow of the Doce River

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oliveira, Kyssyanne Samihra Santos; Quaresma, Valéria da Silva

2017-10-01

Long-term records of streamflow and suspended sediment load provide a better understanding of the evolution of a river mouth, and its adjacent waters and a support for mitigation programs associated with extreme events and engineering projects. The aim of this study is to investigate the temporal variability in the suspended sediment load and streamflow of the Doce River to the Atlantic Ocean, between 1990 and 2013. Streamflow and suspended sediment load were analyzed at the daily, seasonal, and interannual scales. The results showed that at the daily scale, Doce River flood events are due to high intensity and short duration rainfalls, which means that there is a flashy response to rainfall. At the monthly and season scales, approximately 94% of the suspended sediment supply occurs during the wet season. Extreme hydrological events are important for the interannual scale for Doce River sediment supply to the Atlantic Ocean. The results suggest that a summation of anthropogenic interferences (deforestation, urbanization and soil degradation) led to an increase of extreme hydrological events. The findings of this study shows the importance of understanding the typical behavior of the Doce River, allowing the detection of extreme hydrological conditions, its causes and possible environmental and social consequences.

Superconducting RF R&D | Technical Division

Science.gov Websites

Doping Contact: Anna Grassellino annag High quality factors (Q) are extremely important to accelerators with high duty factor, due to the infrastructure and operating costs of the cryogenic plant. In 2012, a process was discovered at FNAL to achieve unprecedented Q values by treating them in a high temperature

Youth Labor Markets and the Military. The Rand Paper Series.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cooper, Richard V. L.

This paper argues that the military plays an extremely important role in youth labor markets by providing not only jobs but also experience and training which can later be transferred to the civilian labor market. Following the introduction, section II examines the military's demand for labor; its fluctuations due to secular, cyclical, and…

The world at 1.5°C: Understanding its regional dimensions and driving processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seneviratne, S. I.; Wartenburger, R.; Vogel, M.; Hirsch, A.; Guillod, B.; Donat, M.; Pitman, A. J.; Davin, E.; Greve, P.; Hirschi, M.

2017-12-01

This presentation reviews the available evidence regarding projected regional changes in climate extremes at 1.5°C vs higher levels of warming based on recent analyses (Seneviratne et al. 2016; Wartenburger et al., submitted; Greve et al., submitted). In several regions, significant differences in the occurrence of climate extremes can be identified already for half a degree of warming when assessing changes at 1.5°C vs 2°C global warming. An important feature is the much stronger warming of hot extremes in several continental regions compared to the global mean warming, which implies that temperature extremes can warm regionally by much more than 1.5°C, even if global temperature warming is stabilized at this level (e.g. up to 6°C for certain models in the Arctic). This feature is due to a combination of feedbacks and internal climate variability. We highlight in particular the importance of land-climate feedbacks for projected changes in hot extremes in mid-latitude regions (Vogel et al. 2017). Because of the strong effects of land processes on regional changes in temperature extremes, changes in land surface properties, including land use changes, are found to be particularly important for projections in low-emissions scenarios (Hirsch et al. 2017; Guillod et al., submitted). References: Greve, P., et al.: Regional scaling of annual mean precipitation and water availability with global temperature change. Submitted. Guillod, B.P., et al.: Land use in low climate warming targets critical for hot extreme projections. Submitted. Hirsch, A.L., et al., 2017: Can climate-effective land management reduce regional warming? J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 122, 2269-2288, doi:10.1002/2016JD026125. Seneviratne, S.I., et al., 2016: Allowable CO2 emissions based on regional and impact-related climate targets. Nature, 529, 477-483, doi:10.1038/nature16542. Vogel, M.M., et al., 2017: Regional amplification of projected changes in extreme temperatures strongly controlled by soil moisture-temperature feedbacks. Geophysical Research Letters, 44(3), 1511-1519. Wartenburger, R., et al.: Changes in regional climate extremes as a function of global mean temperature: an interactive plotting framework. Geosci. Model Dev. - Submitt.,

How changes of climate extremes affect summer and winter crop yields and water productivity in the southeast USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tian, D.; Cammarano, D.

2017-12-01

Modeling changes of crop production at regional scale is important to make adaptation measures for sustainably food supply under global change. In this study, we explore how changing climate extremes in the 20th and 21st century affect maize (summer crop) and wheat (winter crop) yields in an agriculturally important region: the southeast United States. We analyze historical (1950-1999) and projected (2006-2055) precipitation and temperature extremes by calculating the changes of 18 climate extreme indices using the statistically downscaled CMIP5 data from 10 general circulation models (GCMs). To evaluate how these climate extremes affect maize and wheat yields, historical baseline and projected maize and wheat yields under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios are simulated using the DSSAT-CERES maize and wheat models driven by the same downscaled GCMs data. All of the changes are examined at 110 locations over the study region. The results show that most of the precipitation extreme indices do not have notable change; mean precipitation, precipitation intensity, and maximum 1-day precipitation are generally increased; the number of rainy days is decreased. The temperature extreme indices mostly showed increased values on mean temperature, number of high temperature days, diurnal temperature range, consecutive high temperature days, maximum daily maximum temperature, and minimum daily minimum temperature; the number of low temperature days and number of consecutive low temperature days are decreased. The conditional probabilistic relationships between changes in crop yields and changes in extreme indices suggested different responses of crop yields to climate extremes during sowing to anthesis and anthesis to maturity periods. Wheat yields and crop water productivity for wheat are increased due to an increased CO2 concentration and minimum temperature; evapotranspiration, maize yields, and crop water productivity for wheat are decreased owing to the increased temperature extremes. We found the effects of precipitation changes on both yields are relatively uncertain.

Impacts of Climate Change On The Occurrence of Extreme Events: The Mice Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Palutikof, J. P.; Mice Team

It is widely accepted that climate change due to global warming will have substan- tial impacts on the natural environment, and on human activities. Furthermore, it is increasingly recognized that changes in the severity and frequency of extreme events, such as windstorm and flood, are likely to be more important than changes in the average climate. The EU-funded project MICE (Modelling the Impacts of Climate Extremes) commenced in January 2002. It seeks to identify the likely changes in the occurrence of extremes of rainfall, temperature and windstorm due to global warm- ing, using information from climate models as a basis, and to study the impacts of these changes in selected European environments. The objectives are: a) to evaluate, by comparison with gridded and station observations, the ability of climate models to successfully reproduce the occurrence of extremes at the required spatial and temporal scales. b) to analyse model output with respect to future changes in the occurrence of extremes. Statistical analyses will determine changes in (i) the return periods of ex- tremes, (ii) the joint probability of extremes (combinations of damaging events such as windstorm followed by heavy rain), (iii) the sequential behaviour of extremes (whether events are well-separated or clustered) and (iv) the spatial patterns of extreme event occurrence across Europe. The range of uncertainty in model predictions will be ex- plored by analysing changes in model experiments with different spatial resolutions and forcing scenarios. c) to determine the impacts of the predicted changes in extremes occurrence on selected activity sectors: agriculture (Mediterranean drought), commer- cial forestry and natural forest ecosystems (windstorm and flood in northern Europe, fire in the Mediterranean), energy use (temperature extremes), tourism (heat stress and Mediterranean beach holidays, changes in the snow pack and winter sports ) and civil protection/insurance (windstorm and flood). Impacts will be evaluated through a combination of techniques ranging from quantitative analyses through to expert judge- ment. Throughout the project, a continuing dialogue with stakeholders and end-users will be maintained.

Vulnerability and resilience of the carbon exchange of a subarctic peatland to an extreme winter event

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parmentier, Frans-Jan W.; Rasse, Daniel P.; Lund, Magnus; Bjerke, Jarle W.; Drake, Bert G.; Weldon, Simon; Tømmervik, Hans; Hansen, Georg H.

2018-06-01

Extreme winter events that damage vegetation are considered an important climatic cause of arctic browning—a reversal of the greening trend of the region—and possibly reduce the carbon uptake of northern ecosystems. Confirmation of a reduction in CO2 uptake due to winter damage, however, remains elusive due to a lack of flux measurements from affected ecosystems. In this study, we report eddy covariance fluxes of CO2 from a peatland in northern Norway and show that vegetation CO2 uptake was delayed and reduced in the summer of 2014 following an extreme winter event earlier that year. Strong frost in the absence of a protective snow cover—its combined intensity unprecedented in the local climate record—caused severe dieback of the dwarf shrub species Calluna vulgaris and Empetrum nigrum. Similar vegetation damage was reported at the time along ~1000 km of coastal Norway, showing the widespread impact of this event. Our results indicate that gross primary production (GPP) exhibited a delayed response to temperature following snowmelt. From snowmelt up to the peak of summer, this reduced carbon uptake by 14 (0–24) g C m‑2 (~12% of GPP in that period)—similar to the effect of interannual variations in summer weather. Concurrently, remotely-sensed NDVI dropped to the lowest level in more than a decade. However, bulk photosynthesis was eventually stimulated by the warm and sunny summer, raising total GPP. Species other than the vulnerable shrubs were probably resilient to the extreme winter event. The warm summer also increased ecosystem respiration, which limited net carbon uptake. This study shows that damage from a single extreme winter event can have an ecosystem-wide impact on CO2 uptake, and highlights the importance of including winter-induced shrub damage in terrestrial ecosystem models to accurately predict trends in vegetation productivity and carbon sequestration in the Arctic and sub-Arctic.

Extreme Water Levels in Bangladesh: Past Trends, Future Projections and their Impact on Mortality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thiele-Eich, I.; Burkart, K.; Hopson, T. M.; Simmer, C.

2014-12-01

Climate change is expected to have an impact on meteorological and therefore hydrological extremes, thereby possibly altering the vulnerability of exposed populations. Our study focuses on Bangladesh, which is particularly vulnerable to changes in extremes due to both the large population at risk, as well as geographical characteristics such as the low-rising slope of the country through which the outflow of the combined catchments of the Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna rivers (GBM, ~1.75 million km2) is channeled.Time series of daily discharge and water level data for the past 100 years were analyzed with respect to trends in frequency, magnitude and duration, focusing on rare but particularly high-risk events using extreme-value theory. Mortality data is available for a five-year period (2003-2007), with a distributed lag non-linear model used to examine possible connections between extreme water levels and mortality. Then, using output from the Community Climate System Model CCSM4, projections were made regarding future flooding due to changes in precipitation intensity and frequency, while also accounting for the backwater effect of sea-level rise. For this, the upper catchment precipitation as well as monthly mean thermosteric sea-level rise at the river mouth outflow were taken from the four CCSM4 1° 20th Century ensemble members as well as from six CCSM4 1° ensemble members for the RCP scenarios RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5.Results show that while e.g. the mean water level did not significantly rise during the past 100 years, a change in extreme water levels can be detected. In addition, annual minimum water levels have decreased, which is of particular importance as there is a significant connection to an increase in mortality for low water levels. While mortality does not seem to increase significantly due to extreme floods, our results indicate that return levels projected for the future shift progressively, with the effect being strongest for RCP 8.5. Further measures to strengthen the resilience of the exposed population are therefore required to ensure that climate change effects do not overwhelm the population's coping capacities.

Flood Protection Ecosystem Services in the Coast of Puerto Rico: Associations Between Watershed Processes and Local Human Health and Well Being Indicators

EPA Science Inventory

Flood events are becoming increasingly important in coastal cities due to a projected increase in the frequency of extreme weather events. A potential strategy to promote coastal protection from these hazards is the use of green infrastructure to provide flood protection ecosyste...

Is Formal Environmental Education Friendly to Nature? Environmental Ethics in Science Textbooks for Primary School Pupils in Poland

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gola, Beata

2017-01-01

Due to the increased interest in ecology, global warming and numerous environmental problems, ecological issues are becoming extremely important in education. Many researchers and thinkers believe that solutions to environmental problems are affected by the environmental ethics adopted. This article identifies which of the three branches of…

CO2 and N2O emissions in a soil chronosequence at a glacier retreat zone in Maritime Antarctica

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Polar regions represents a large carbon (C) sequestration reservoir in the world. Studies of alterations in C cycle are extremely important to identify changes due to climate change, especially among polar environments. The objectives of this study were to examine (i) patterns of soil CO2-C emission...

Effects on Storm-Water Management for Three Major US Cities Using Location Specific Extreme Precipitation Dynamical Downscaling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pelle, A.; Allen, M.; Fu, J. S.

2013-12-01

With rising population and increasing urban density, it is of pivotal importance for urban planners to plan for increasing extreme precipitation events. Climate models indicate that an increase in global mean temperature will lead to increased frequency and intensity of storms of a variety of types. Analysis of results from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (CMIP5) has demonstrated that global climate models severely underestimate precipitation, however. Preliminary results from dynamical downscaling indicate that Philadelphia, Pennsylvania is expected to experience the greatest increase of precipitation due to an increase in annual extreme events in the US. New York City, New York and Chicago, Illinois are anticipated to have similarly large increases in annual extreme precipitation events. In order to produce more accurate results, we downscale Philadelphia, Chicago, and New York City using the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF). We analyze historical precipitation data and WRF output utilizing a Log Pearson Type III (LP3) distribution for frequency of extreme precipitation events. This study aims to determine the likelihood of extreme precipitation in future years and its effect on the of cost of stormwater management for these three cities.

75 FR 8044 - Summer Undergraduate Research Program Extension of Due Date for Proposals

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-02-23

...: Due to extreme weather conditions in the Mid-Atlantic United States, NIST is extending the deadline.... Eastern Time, Tuesday, February 16, 2010. Due to extreme weather conditions and associated power outages...

Microbial copper resistance: importance in biohydrometallurgy.

PubMed

Martínez-Bussenius, Cristóbal; Navarro, Claudio A; Jerez, Carlos A

2017-03-01

Industrial biomining has been extensively used for many years to recover valuable metals such as copper, gold, uranium and others. Furthermore, microorganisms involved in these processes can also be used to bioremediate places contaminated with acid and metals. These uses are possible due to the great metal resistance that these extreme acidophilic microorganisms possess. In this review, the most recent findings related to copper resistance mechanisms of bacteria and archaea related to biohydrometallurgy are described. The recent search for novel metal resistance determinants is not only of scientific interest but also of industrial importance, as reflected by the genomic sequencing of microorganisms present in mining operations and the search of those bacteria with extreme metal resistance to improve the extraction processes used by the biomining companies. © 2016 The Authors. Microbial Biotechnology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd and Society for Applied Microbiology.

Sea level oscillations over minute timescales: a global perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vilibic, Ivica; Sepic, Jadranka

2016-04-01

Sea level oscillations occurring over minutes to a few hours are an important contributor to sea level extremes, and a knowledge on their behaviour is essential for proper quantification of coastal marine hazards. Tsunamis, meteotsunamis, infra-gravity waves and harbour oscillations may even dominate sea level extremes in certain areas and thus pose a great danger for humans and coastal infrastructure. Aside for tsunamis, which are, due to their enormous impact to the coastlines, a well-researched phenomena, the importance of other high-frequency oscillations to the sea level extremes is still underrated, as no systematic long-term measurements have been carried out at a minute timescales. Recently, Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC) established Sea Level Monitoring Facility portal (http://www.ioc-sealevelmonitoring.org), making 1-min sea level data publicly available for several hundred tide gauge sites in the World Ocean. Thereafter, a global assessment of oscillations over tsunami timescales become possible; however, the portal contains raw sea level data only, being unchecked for spikes, shifts, drifts and other malfunctions of instruments. We present a quality assessment of these data, estimates of sea level variances and contributions of high-frequency processes to the extremes throughout the World Ocean. This is accompanied with assessment of atmospheric conditions and processes which generate intense high-frequency oscillations.

Climate change impacts on rainfall extremes and urban drainage: state-of-the-art review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Willems, Patrick; Olsson, Jonas; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten; Beecham, Simon; Pathirana, Assela; Bülow Gregersen, Ida; Madsen, Henrik; Nguyen, Van-Thanh-Van

2013-04-01

Under the umbrella of the IWA/IAHR Joint Committee on Urban Drainage, the International Working Group on Urban Rainfall (IGUR) has reviewed existing methodologies for the analysis of long-term historical and future trends in urban rainfall extremes and their effects on urban drainage systems, due to anthropogenic climate change. Current practises have several limitations and pitfalls, which are important to be considered by trend or climate change impact modellers and users of trend/impact results. The review considers the following aspects: Analysis of long-term historical trends due to anthropogenic climate change: influence of data limitation, instrumental or environmental changes, interannual variations and longer term climate oscillations on trend testing results. Analysis of long-term future trends due to anthropogenic climate change: by complementing empirical historical data with the results from physically-based climate models, dynamic downscaling to the urban scale by means of Limited Area Models (LAMs) including explicitly small-scale cloud processes; validation of RCM/GCM results for local conditions accounting for natural variability, limited length of the available time series, difference in spatial scales, and influence of climate oscillations; statistical downscaling methods combined with bias correction; uncertainties associated with the climate forcing scenarios, the climate models, the initial states and the statistical downscaling step; uncertainties in the impact models (e.g. runoff peak flows, flood or surcharge frequencies, and CSO frequencies and volumes), including the impacts of more extreme conditions than considered during impact model calibration and validation. Implications for urban drainage infrastructure design and management: upgrading of the urban drainage system as part of a program of routine and scheduled replacement and renewal of aging infrastructure; how to account for the uncertainties; flexible and sustainable solutions; adaptive approach that provides inherent flexibility and reversibility and avoids closing off options; importance of active learning. References: Willems, P., Olsson, J., Arnbjerg-Nielsen, K., Beecham, S., Pathirana, A., Bülow Gregersen, I., Madsen, H., Nguyen, V-T-V. (2012). Impacts of climate change on rainfall extremes and urban drainage. IWA Publishing, 252 p., Paperback Print ISBN 9781780401256; Ebook ISBN 9781780401263 Willems, P., Arnbjerg-Nielsen, K., Olsson, J., Nguyen, V.T.V. (2012), 'Climate change impact assessment on urban rainfall extremes and urban drainage: methods and shortcomings', Atmospheric Research, 103, 106-118

The effect of extreme spring weather on body condition and stress physiology in Lapland longspurs and white-crowned sparrows breeding in the Arctic.

PubMed

Krause, Jesse S; Pérez, Jonathan H; Chmura, Helen E; Sweet, Shannan K; Meddle, Simone L; Hunt, Kathleen E; Gough, Laura; Boelman, Natalie; Wingfield, John C

2016-10-01

Climate change is causing rapid shifts in temperature while also increasing the frequency, duration, and intensity of extreme weather. In the northern hemisphere, the spring of 2013 was characterized as extreme due to record high snow cover and low temperatures. Studies that describe the effects of extreme weather on phenology across taxa are limited while morphological and physiological responses remain poorly understood. Stress physiology, as measured through baseline and stress-induced concentrations of cortisol or corticosterone, has often been studied to understand how organisms respond to environmental stressors. We compared body condition and stress physiology of two long-distance migrants breeding in low arctic Alaska - the white-crowned sparrow (Zonotrichia leucophrys) and Lapland longspur (Calcarius lapponicus) - in 2013, an extreme weather year, with three more typical years (2011, 2012, and 2014). The extended snow cover in spring 2013 caused measureable changes in phenology, body condition and physiology. Arrival timing for both species was delayed 4-5days compared to the other three years. Lapland longspurs had reduced fat stores, pectoralis muscle profiles, body mass, and hematocrit levels, while stress-induced concentrations of corticosterone were increased. Similarly, white-crowned sparrows had reduced pectoralis muscle profiles and hematocrit levels, but in contrast to Lapland longspurs, had elevated fat stores and no difference in mass or stress physiology relative to other study years. An understanding of physiological mechanisms that regulate coping strategies is of critical importance for predicting how species will respond to the occurrence of extreme events in the future due to global climate change. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The Effects of Color to the Eye and its Importance for Heliport Lighting

DTIC Science & Technology

1996-08-01

beginning around middle age . The hardening of the lens makes it difficult for the ciliary muscles to squeeze the lens to accommodate near objects. This...deficiencies of the visual system is important when designing a new approach lighting system so that these effects are not worsened. The effects of aging ...older, our ability to perceive color at the extremes of the visual spectrum decreases due primarily to the aging effects of the eye’s components. Current

A Comparative Analysis of E-Mail and Face-to-Face Communication in an Educational Environment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lightfoot, Jay M.

2006-01-01

Electronic mail (e-mail) is an extremely important medium for Internet-based education. Due to its unique characteristics, there is reason to be concerned that students do not put appropriate care into writing messages that are sent via e-mail. This has significant implications for the effectiveness of online learning environments. This paper…

The importance of preserving genetic uniqueness in pitch pine restoration (Vermont)

Treesearch

Gary J. Hawley; Paul G. Schaberg; Donald H. DeHayes

2002-01-01

One of the few remaining populations of pitch pine (Pinus rigida) in Vermont is found at the northern extreme of its range at the Army National Guards' Camp Johnson in Colchester, where about 200-300 mature trees grow with very little natural regeneration. We believe this lack of regeneration is likely due to poor establishment conditions, most...

End-use quality of CIMMYT-derived soft kernel durum wheat germplasm: I. Grain, milling, and soft wheat quality

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Wheat kernel texture is used in part to define U.S. wheat market class due to its importance in end-use quality and utilization. Durum wheat (Triticum turgidum subsp. durum) has lower demand and fewer culinary end-uses compared to bread wheat because of its extremely hard kernel texture, which precl...

Simulated heat waves during maize reproductive stages alter reproductive growth but have no lasting effect when applied during vegetative stages

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Due to climate change, heat waves are predicted to become more frequent and severe. While long-term studies on temperature stress have been conducted on important crops such as maize (Zea mays), the immediate and or long-term effects of short duration but extreme high temperature events during key d...

Advances in the Assessment of Wind Turbine Operating Extreme Loads via More Efficient Calculation Approaches

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Graf, Peter; Damiani, Rick R.; Dykes, Katherine

2017-01-09

A new adaptive stratified importance sampling (ASIS) method is proposed as an alternative approach for the calculation of the 50 year extreme load under operational conditions, as in design load case 1.1 of the the International Electrotechnical Commission design standard. ASIS combines elements of the binning and extrapolation technique, currently described by the standard, and of the importance sampling (IS) method to estimate load probability of exceedances (POEs). Whereas a Monte Carlo (MC) approach would lead to the sought level of POE with a daunting number of simulations, IS-based techniques are promising as they target the sampling of the inputmore » parameters on the parts of the distributions that are most responsible for the extreme loads, thus reducing the number of runs required. We compared the various methods on select load channels as output from FAST, an aero-hydro-servo-elastic tool for the design and analysis of wind turbines developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). Our newly devised method, although still in its infancy in terms of tuning of the subparameters, is comparable to the others in terms of load estimation and its variance versus computational cost, and offers great promise going forward due to the incorporation of adaptivity into the already powerful importance sampling concept.« less

Extreme hydrometeorological events in the Peruvian Central Andes during austral summer and their relationship with the large-scale circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sulca, Juan C.

In this Master's dissertation, atmospheric circulation patterns associated with extreme hydrometeorological events in the Mantaro Basin, Peruvian Central Andes, and their teleconnections during the austral summer (December-January-February-March) are addressed. Extreme rainfall events in the Mantaro basin are related to variations of the large-scale circulation as indicated by the changing strength of the Bolivian High-Nordeste Low (BH-NL) system. Dry (wet) spells are associated with a weakening (strengthening) of the BH-NL system and reduced (enhanced) influx of moist air from the lowlands to the east due to strengthened westerly (easterly) wind anomalies at mid- and upper-tropospheric levels. At the same time extreme rainfall events of the opposite sign occur over northeastern Brazil (NEB) due to enhanced (inhibited) convective activity in conjunction with a strengthened (weakened) Nordeste Low. Cold episodes in the Mantaro Basin are grouped in three types: weak, strong and extraordinary cold episodes. Weak and strong cold episodes in the MB are mainly associated with a weakening of the BH-NL system due to tropical-extratropical interactions. Both types of cold episodes are associated with westerly wind anomalies at mid- and upper-tropospheric levels aloft the Peruvian Central Andes, which inhibit the influx of humid air masses from the lowlands to the east and hence limit the potential for development of convective cloud cover. The resulting clear sky conditions cause nighttime temperatures to drop, leading to cold extremes below the 10-percentile. Extraordinary cold episodes in the MB are associated with cold and dry polar air advection at all tropospheric levels toward the central Peruvian Andes. Therefore, weak and strong cold episodes in the MB appear to be caused by radiative cooling associated with reduced cloudiness, rather than cold air advection, while the latter plays an important role for extraordinary cold episodes only.

Storms or cold fronts: what is really responsible for the extreme waves regime in the Colombian Caribbean coastal region?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Otero, L. J.; Ortiz-Royero, J. C.; Ruiz-Merchan, J. K.; Higgins, A. E.; Henriquez, S. A.

2016-02-01

The aim of this study is to determine the contribution and importance of cold fronts and storms to extreme waves in different areas of the Colombian Caribbean in an attempt to determine the extent of the threat posed by the flood processes to which these coastal populations are exposed. Furthermore, the study wishes to establish the actions to which coastal engineering constructions should be subject. In the calculation of maritime constructions, the most important parameter is the height of the wave. For this reason, it is necessary to establish the design wave height to which a coastal engineering structure should be resistant. This wave height varies according to the return period considered. The significant height values for the areas focused on in the study were calculated in accordance with Gumbel's extreme value methodology. The methodology was evaluated using data from the reanalysis of the spectral National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) WAVEWATCH III® (WW3) model for 15 points along the 1600 km of the Colombian Caribbean coastline (continental and insular) between the years 1979 and 2009. The results demonstrated that the extreme waves caused by tropical cyclones and those caused by cold fronts have different effects along the Colombian Caribbean coast. Storms and hurricanes are of greater importance in the Guajira Peninsula (Alta Guajira). In the central area (consisting of Baja Guajira, and the cities of Santa Marta, Barranquilla, and Cartagena), the strong impact of cold fronts on extreme waves is evident. However, in the southern region of the Colombian Caribbean coast (ranging from the Gulf of Morrosquillo to the Gulf of Urabá), the extreme values of wave heights are lower than in the previously mentioned regions, despite being dominated mainly by the passage of cold fronts. Extreme waves in the San Andrés and Providencia insular region present a different dynamic from that in the continental area due to their geographic location. The wave heights in the extreme regime are similar in magnitude to those found in Alta Guajira, but the extreme waves associated with the passage of cold fronts in this region have lower return periods than those associated with the hurricane season.

Abrupt shifts in ecosystem function and intensification of global biogeochemical cycle driven by hydroclimatic extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, Xuanlong; Huete, Alfredo; Ponce-Campos, Guillermo; Zhang, Yongguang; Xie, Zunyi; Giovannini, Leandro; Cleverly, James; Eamus, Derek

2016-04-01

Amplification of the hydrologic cycle as a consequence of global warming is increasing the frequency, intensity, and spatial extent of extreme climate events globally. The potential influences resulting from amplification of the hydro-climatic cycle, coupled with an accelerating warming trend, pose great concerns on the sustainability of terrestrial ecosystems to sequester carbon, maintain biodiversity, provide ecosystem services, food security, and support human livelihood. Despite the great implications, the magnitude, direction, and carry-over effect of these extreme climate events on ecosystem function, remain largely uncertain. To address these pressing issues, we conducted an observational, interdisciplinary study using satellite retrievals of atmospheric CO2 and photosynthesis (chlorophyll fluorescence), and in-situ flux tower measures of ecosystem-atmosphere carbon exchange, to reveal the shifts in ecosystem function across extreme drought and wet periods. We further determine the factors that govern ecosystem sensitivity to hydroclimatic extremes. We focus on Australia but extended our analyses to other global dryland regions due to their significant role in global biogeochemical cycles. Our results revealed dramatic impacts of drought and wet hydroclimatic extremes on ecosystem function, with abrupt changes in vegetation productivity, carbon uptake, and water-use-efficiency between years. Drought resulted in widespread reductions or collapse in the normal patterns of vegetation growth seasonality such that in many cases there was no detectable phenological cycle during extreme drought years. We further identified a significant increasing trend (p < 0.001) in extreme wet year precipitation amounts over Australia and many other global regions, resulting in an increasing trend in magnitude of the episodic carbon sink pulses coupled to each La Niña-induced wet years. This finding is of global biogeochemical significance, with the consequence of amplifying the global carbon cycle. Lastly, we use landscape measurements of carbon and water fluxes from eddy-covariance towers and field sampling of aboveground net primary productivity from long-term ecological networks to verify the patterns observed by top-down approaches. Our results demonstrate the intensification of hydroclimatic extremes due to global warming is exerting important impacts on ecosystem function, which further have significant implications on global biogeochemical cycles as well as local ecosystem processes.

Evolution of Precipitation Extremes in Three Large Ensembles of Climate Simulations - Impact of Spatial and Temporal Resolutions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martel, J. L.; Brissette, F.; Mailhot, A.; Wood, R. R.; Ludwig, R.; Frigon, A.; Leduc, M.; Turcotte, R.

2017-12-01

Recent studies indicate that the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation will increase in future climate due to global warming. In this study, we compare annual maxima precipitation series from three large ensembles of climate simulations at various spatial and temporal resolutions. The first two are at the global scale: the Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2) 50-member large ensemble (CanESM2-LE) at a 2.8° resolution and the Community Earth System Model (CESM1) 40-member large ensemble (CESM1-LE) at a 1° resolution. The third ensemble is at the regional scale over both Eastern North America and Europe: the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM5) 50-member large ensemble (CRCM5-LE) at a 0.11° resolution, driven at its boundaries by the CanESM-LE. The CRCM5-LE is a new ensemble issued from the ClimEx project (http://www.climex-project.org), a Québec-Bavaria collaboration. Using these three large ensembles, change in extreme precipitations over the historical (1980-2010) and future (2070-2100) periods are investigated. This results in 1 500 (30 years x 50 members for CanESM2-LE and CRCM5-LE) and 1200 (30 years x 40 members for CESM1-LE) simulated years over both the historical and future periods. Using these large datasets, the empirical daily (and sub-daily for CRCM5-LE) extreme precipitation quantiles for large return periods ranging from 2 to 100 years are computed. Results indicate that daily extreme precipitations generally will increase over most land grid points of both domains according to the three large ensembles. Regarding the CRCM5-LE, the increase in sub-daily extreme precipitations will be even more important than the one observed for daily extreme precipitations. Considering that many public infrastructures have lifespans exceeding 75 years, the increase in extremes has important implications on service levels of water infrastructures and public safety.

[Shoulder injuries in golf].

PubMed

Liem, D; Gosheger, G; Schmidt, C

2014-03-01

Due to its growing popularity golf has now come into the focus of orthopedic sports medicine. With a wide range of age groups and playing levels, orthopedic surgeons will encounter a wide range of musculoskeletal problems which are usually the result of overuse rather than trauma. The shoulder joint plays an important role in the golf swing whereby not only the muscles around the glenohumeral joint but also the scapula stabilizing muscles are extremely important for an effective golf swing. Golf is strictly not considered to be an overhead sport; however, the extreme peak positions of the golf swing involve placing the shoulder joint in maximum abduction and adduction positions which can provoke impingement, lesions of the pulley system or even a special form of posterior shoulder instability. Even after complex shoulder operations, such as rotator cuff repair or shoulder arthroplasty, a return to the golf course at nearly the same level of play can be expected.

Characterization of Microgravity Effects on Bone Structure and Strength Using Fractal Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Acharya, Raj S.; Shackelford, Linda

1996-01-01

Protecting humans against extreme environmental conditions requires a thorough understanding of the pathophysiological changes resulting from the exposure to those extreme conditions. Knowledge of the degree of medical risk associated with the exposure is of paramount importance in the design of effective prophylactic and therapeutic measures for space exploration. Major health hazards due o musculoskeletal systems include the signs and symptoms of hypercalciuria, lengthy recovery of lost bone tissue after flight, the possibility of irreversible trabecular bone loss, the possible effect of calcification in the soft tissues, and the possible increase in fracture potential. In this research, we characterize the trabecular structure with the aid of fractal analysis. Our research to relate local trabecular structural information to microgravity conditions is an important initial step in understanding the effect of microgravity and countermeasures on bone condition and strength. The proposed research is also closely linked with Osteoporosis and will benefit the general population.

Seasonal extreme value statistics for precipitation in Germany

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fischer, Madlen; Rust, Henning W.; Ulbrich, Uwe

2013-04-01

Extreme precipitation has a strong influence on environment, society and economy. It leads to large damage due to floods, mudslides, increased erosion or hail. While standard annual return levels are important for hydrological structures, seasonaly resolved return levels provide additional information for risk managment, e.g., for the agricultural sector. For 1208 stations in Germany, we calculate monthly resolved return levels. Instead of estimating parameters separately for every month in the year, we use a non-stationary approach and benefit from smoothly varying return levels throughout the year. This natural approach is more suitable to characterise seasonal variability of extreme precipitation and leads to more accurate return level estimates. Harmonic functions of different orders are used to describe the seasonal variation of GEV parameters and crossvalidation is used to determine a suitable model forall stations. Finally particularly vulnerable regions and associated month are investigated in more detail.

The Influence of Recurrent Modes of Climate Variability on the Occurrence of Monthly Temperature Extremes Over South America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loikith, Paul C.; Detzer, Judah; Mechoso, Carlos R.; Lee, Huikyo; Barkhordarian, Armineh

2017-10-01

The associations between extreme temperature months and four prominent modes of recurrent climate variability are examined over South America. Associations are computed as the percent of extreme temperature months concurrent with the upper and lower quartiles of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Atlantic Niño, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) index distributions, stratified by season. The relationship is strongest for ENSO, with nearly every extreme temperature month concurrent with the upper or lower quartiles of its distribution in portions of northwestern South America during some seasons. The likelihood of extreme warm temperatures is enhanced over parts of northern South America when the Atlantic Niño index is in the upper quartile, while cold extremes are often association with the lowest quartile. Concurrent precipitation anomalies may contribute to these relations. The PDO shows weak associations during December, January, and February, while in June, July, and August its relationship with extreme warm temperatures closely matches that of ENSO. This may be due to the positive relationship between the PDO and ENSO, rather than the PDO acting as an independent physical mechanism. Over Patagonia, the SAM is highly influential during spring and fall, with warm and cold extremes being associated with positive and negative phases of the SAM, respectively. Composites of sea level pressure anomalies for extreme temperature months over Patagonia suggest an important role of local synoptic scale weather variability in addition to a favorable SAM for the occurrence of these extremes.

Broadband interference lithography at extreme ultraviolet and soft x-ray wavelengths.

PubMed

Mojarad, Nassir; Fan, Daniel; Gobrecht, Jens; Ekinci, Yasin

2014-04-15

Manufacturing efficient and broadband optics is of high technological importance for various applications in all wavelength regimes. Particularly in the extreme ultraviolet and soft x-ray spectra, this becomes challenging due to the involved atomic absorption edges that rapidly change the optical constants in these ranges. Here we demonstrate a new interference lithography grating mask that can be used for nanopatterning in this spectral range. We demonstrate photolithography with cutting-edge resolution at 6.5 and 13.5 nm wavelengths, relevant to the semiconductor industry, as well as using 2.5 and 4.5 nm wavelength for patterning thick photoresists and fabricating high-aspect-ratio metal nanostructures for plasmonics and sensing applications.

Observation of extremely strong shock waves in solids launched by petawatt laser heating

DOE PAGES

Lancaster, K. L.; Robinson, A. P. L.; Pasley, J.; ...

2017-08-25

Understanding hydrodynamic phenomena driven by fast electron heating is important for a range of applications including fast electron collimation schemes for fast ignition and the production and study of hot, dense matter. In this work, detailed numerical simulations modelling the heating, hydrodynamic evolution, and extreme ultra-violet (XUV) emission in combination with experimental XUV images indicate shock waves of exceptional strength (200 Mbar) launched due to rapid heating of materials via a petawatt laser. In conclusion, we discuss in detail the production of synthetic XUV images and how they assist us in interpreting experimental XUV images captured at 256 eV usingmore » a multi-layer spherical mirror.« less

Application of symbolic/numeric matrix solution techniques to the NASTRAN program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Buturla, E. M.; Burroughs, S. H.

1977-01-01

The matrix solving algorithm of any finite element algorithm is extremely important since solution of the matrix equations requires a large amount of elapse time due to null calculations and excessive input/output operations. An alternate method of solving the matrix equations is presented. A symbolic processing step followed by numeric solution yields the solution very rapidly and is especially useful for nonlinear problems.

Future Projection of Summer Extreme Precipitation from High Resolution Multi-RCMs over East Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Gayoung; Park, Changyong; Cha, Dong-Hyun; Lee, Dong-Kyou; Suh, Myoung-Seok; Ahn, Joong-Bae; Min, Seung-Ki; Hong, Song-You; Kang, Hyun-Suk

2017-04-01

Recently, the frequency and intensity of natural hazards have been increasing due to human-induced climate change. Because most damages of natural hazards over East Asia have been related to extreme precipitation events, it is important to estimate future change in extreme precipitation characteristics caused by climate change. We investigate future changes in extremal values of summer precipitation simulated by five regional climate models participating in the CORDEX-East Asia project (i.e., HadGEM3-RA, RegCM4, MM5, WRF, and GRIMs) over East Asia. 100-year return value calculated from the generalized extreme value (GEV) parameters is analysed as an indicator of extreme intensity. In the future climate, the mean values as well as the extreme values of daily precipitation tend to increase over land region. The increase of 100-year return value can be significantly associated with the changes in the location (intensity) and scale (variability) GEV parameters for extreme precipitation. It is expected that the results of this study can be used as fruitful references when making the policy of disaster management. Acknowledgements The research was supported by the Ministry of Public Safety and Security of Korean government and Development program under grant MPSS-NH-2013-63 and the National Research Foundation of Korea Grant funded by the Ministry of Science, ICT and Future Planning of Korea (NRF-2016M3C4A7952637) for its support and assistant in completion of the study.

Modeling soil heating and moisture transport under extreme conditions: Forest fires and slash pile burns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Massman, W. J.

2012-10-01

Heating any soil during a sufficiently intense wildfire or prescribed burn can alter it irreversibly, causing many significant, long-term biological, chemical, and hydrological effects. Given the climate-change-driven increasing probability of wildfires and the increasing use of prescribed burns by land managers, it is important to better understand the dynamics of the coupled heat and moisture transport in soil during these extreme heating events. Furthermore, improved understanding and modeling of heat and mass transport during extreme conditions should provide insights into the associated transport mechanisms under more normal conditions. The present study describes a numerical model developed to simulate soil heat and moisture transport during fires where the surface heating often ranges between 10,000 and 100,000 W m-2 for several minutes to several hours. Basically, the model extends methods commonly used to model coupled heat flow and moisture evaporation at ambient conditions into regions of extreme dryness and heat. But it also incorporates some infrequently used formulations for temperature dependencies of the soil specific heat, thermal conductivity, and the water retention curve, as well as advective effects due to the large changes in volume that occur when liquid water is rapidly volatilized. Model performance is tested against laboratory measurements of soil temperature and moisture changes at several depths during controlled heating events. Qualitatively, the model agrees with the laboratory observations, namely, it simulates an increase in soil moisture ahead of the drying front (due to the condensation of evaporated soil water at the front) and a hiatus in the soil temperature rise during the strongly evaporative stage of the soil drying. Nevertheless, it is shown that the model is incapable of producing a physically realistic solution because it does not (and, in fact, cannot) represent the relationship between soil water potential and soil moisture at extremely low soil moisture contents (i.e., residual or bound water: θ < 0.01 m3 m-3, for example). Diagnosing the model's performance yields important insights into how to make progress on modeling soil evaporation and heating under conditions of high temperatures and very low soil moisture content.

Body piercing with fatal consequences.

PubMed

Ranga, N; Jeffery, A J

2011-01-25

Body modifications such as piercings, tattoos and surgery have increased in popularity in recent times and have become more socially acceptable. The common complications of piercing different parts of the human anatomy are well-documented, including sepsis, allergic reactions and, more rarely, endocarditis and ischaemia. Deaths related to piercing complications are primarily septic in origin. In this case, a man in his 50s died due to complications of his multiple umbilical piercings. The cause of death was unusually linked to body modification; the umbilical piercings had ultimately led to a mesenteric infarction. Cases such as these are forensically important due to potential manslaughter charges that could be brought against a piercing establishment. More importantly, this case highlights another extreme complication of body modification. Fashion statements are always changing and impact upon many lives. It is important to highlight to people the potentially life-threatening complications of common piercing practices.

Attribution of Extreme Rainfall from Landfalling Tropical Cyclones to Climate Change for the Eastern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, M.; Yang, L.; Smith, J. A.; Vecchi, G. A.

2017-12-01

Extreme rainfall and flooding associated with landfalling tropical cyclones (TC) is responsible for vast socioeconomic losses and fatalities. Landfalling tropical cyclones are an important element of extreme rainfall and flood peak distributions in the eastern United States. Record floods for USGS stream gauging stations over the eastern US are closely tied to landfalling hurricanes. A small number of storms account for the largest record floods, most notably Hurricanes Diane (1955) and Agnes (1972). The question we address is: if the synoptic conditions accompanying those hurricanes were to be repeated in the future, how would the thermodynamic and dynamic storm properties and associated extreme rainfall differ in response to climate change? We examine three hurricanes: Diane (1955), Agnes (1972) and Irene (2011), due to the contrasts in structure/evolution properties and their important roles in dictating the upper tail properties of extreme rainfall and flood frequency over eastern US. Extreme rainfall from Diane is more localized as the storm maintains tropical characteristics, while synoptic-scale vertical motion associated with extratropical transition is a central feature for extreme rainfall induced by Agnes. Our analyses are based on ensemble simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, considering combinations of different physics options (i.e., microphysics, boundary layer schemes). The initial and boundary conditions of WRF simulations for the present-day climate are using the Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20thCR). A sub-selection of GCMs is used, as part of phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), to provide future climate projections. For future simulations, changes in model fields (i.e., temperature, humidity, geopotential height) between present-day and future climate are first derived and then added to the same 20thCR initial and boundary data used for the present-day simulations, and the ensemble is rerun using identical model configurations. Response of extreme rainfall as well as changes in thermodynamic and dynamic storm properties will be presented and analyzed. Contrasting responses across the three storm events to climate change will shed light on critical environmental factors for TC-related extreme rainfall over eastern US.

Variable effects of climate on forest growth in relation to climate extremes, disturbance, and forest dynamics.

PubMed

Itter, Malcolm S; Finley, Andrew O; D'Amato, Anthony W; Foster, Jane R; Bradford, John B

2017-06-01

Changes in the frequency, duration, and severity of climate extremes are forecast to occur under global climate change. The impacts of climate extremes on forest productivity and health remain difficult to predict due to potential interactions with disturbance events and forest dynamics-changes in forest stand composition, density, size and age structure over time. Such interactions may lead to non-linear forest growth responses to climate involving thresholds and lag effects. Understanding how forest dynamics influence growth responses to climate is particularly important given stand structure and composition can be modified through management to increase forest resistance and resilience to climate change. To inform such adaptive management, we develop a hierarchical Bayesian state space model in which climate effects on tree growth are allowed to vary over time and in relation to past climate extremes, disturbance events, and forest dynamics. The model is an important step toward integrating disturbance and forest dynamics into predictions of forest growth responses to climate extremes. We apply the model to a dendrochronology data set from forest stands of varying composition, structure, and development stage in northeastern Minnesota that have experienced extreme climate years and forest tent caterpillar defoliation events. Mean forest growth was most sensitive to water balance variables representing climatic water deficit. Forest growth responses to water deficit were partitioned into responses driven by climatic threshold exceedances and interactions with insect defoliation. Forest growth was both resistant and resilient to climate extremes with the majority of forest growth responses occurring after multiple climatic threshold exceedances across seasons and years. Interactions between climate and disturbance were observed in a subset of years with insect defoliation increasing forest growth sensitivity to water availability. Forest growth was particularly sensitive to climate extremes during periods of high stem density following major regeneration events when average inter-tree competition was high. Results suggest the resistance and resilience of forest growth to climate extremes can be increased through management steps such as thinning to reduce competition during early stages of stand development and small-group selection harvests to maintain forest structures characteristic of older, mature stands. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

Variable effects of climate on forest growth in relation to climate extremes, disturbance, and forest dynamics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Itter, Malcolm S.; Finley, Andrew O.; D'Amato, Anthony W.; Foster, Jane R.; Bradford, John B.

2017-01-01

Changes in the frequency, duration, and severity of climate extremes are forecast to occur under global climate change. The impacts of climate extremes on forest productivity and health remain difficult to predict due to potential interactions with disturbance events and forest dynamics—changes in forest stand composition, density, size and age structure over time. Such interactions may lead to non-linear forest growth responses to climate involving thresholds and lag effects. Understanding how forest dynamics influence growth responses to climate is particularly important given stand structure and composition can be modified through management to increase forest resistance and resilience to climate change. To inform such adaptive management, we develop a hierarchical Bayesian state space model in which climate effects on tree growth are allowed to vary over time and in relation to past climate extremes, disturbance events, and forest dynamics. The model is an important step toward integrating disturbance and forest dynamics into predictions of forest growth responses to climate extremes. We apply the model to a dendrochronology data set from forest stands of varying composition, structure, and development stage in northeastern Minnesota that have experienced extreme climate years and forest tent caterpillar defoliation events. Mean forest growth was most sensitive to water balance variables representing climatic water deficit. Forest growth responses to water deficit were partitioned into responses driven by climatic threshold exceedances and interactions with insect defoliation. Forest growth was both resistant and resilient to climate extremes with the majority of forest growth responses occurring after multiple climatic threshold exceedances across seasons and years. Interactions between climate and disturbance were observed in a subset of years with insect defoliation increasing forest growth sensitivity to water availability. Forest growth was particularly sensitive to climate extremes during periods of high stem density following major regeneration events when average inter-tree competition was high. Results suggest the resistance and resilience of forest growth to climate extremes can be increased through management steps such as thinning to reduce competition during early stages of stand development and small-group selection harvests to maintain forest structures characteristic of older, mature stands.

Determination of three-dimensional joint loading within the lower extremities in snowboarding.

PubMed

Krüger, Andreas; McAlpine, Paul; Borrani, Fabio; Edelmann-Nusser, Jürgen

2012-02-01

In the biomechanical literature only a few studies are available focusing on the determination of joint loading within the lower extremities in snowboarding. These studies are limited to analysis in a restricted capture volume due to the use of optical video-based systems. To overcome this restriction the aim of the present study was to develop a method to determine net joint moments within the lower extremities in snowboarding for complete measurement runs. An experienced snowboarder performed several runs equipped with two custom-made force plates as well as a full-body inertial measurement system. A rigid, multi-segment model was developed to describe the motion and loads within the lower extremities. This model is based on an existing lower-body model and designed to be run by the OpenSim software package. Measured kinetic and kinematic data were imported into the OpenSim program and inverse dynamic calculations were performed. The results illustrate the potential of the developed method for the determination of joint loadings within the lower extremities for complete measurement runs in a real snowboarding environment. The calculated net joint moments of force are reasonable in comparison to the data presented in the literature. A good reliability of the method seems to be indicated by the low data variation between different turns. Due to the unknown accuracy of this method the application for inter-individual studies as well as studies of injury mechanisms may be limited. For intra-individual studies comparing different snowboarding techniques as well as different snowboard equipment the method seems to be beneficial. The validity of the method needs to be studied further.

Necrotizing Fasciitis of the Lower Extremity Caused by Serratia marcescens A Case Report.

PubMed

Heigh, Evelyn G; Maletta-Bailey, April; Haight, John; Landis, Gregg S

2016-03-01

Necrotizing fasciitis is a rare and potentially fatal infection, with mortality of up to 30%. This case report describes a patient recovering from a laryngectomy for laryngeal squamous cell cancer who developed nosocomial necrotizing fasciitis of the lower extremity due to Serratia marcescens . Only eight cases of necrotizing fasciitis exclusive to the lower extremity due to S marcescens have been previously reported. Patients with S marcescens necrotizing fasciitis of the lower extremity often have multiple comorbidities, are frequently immunosuppressed, and have a strikingly high mortality rate.

Environmental health aspects of drinking water-borne outbreak due to karst flooding: case study.

PubMed

Dura, Gyula; Pándics, Tamás; Kádár, Mihály; Krisztalovics, Katalin; Kiss, Zoltánné; Bodnár, Judit; Asztalos, Agnes; Papp, Erzsébet

2010-09-01

Climate change may increase the incidence of waterborne diseases due to extreme rainfall events, and consequent microbiological contamination of the water source and supply. As a result of the complexity of the pathways from the surface to the consumer, it is difficult to detect an association between rainfall and human disease. The water supply of a Hungarian city, Miskolc (174,000 inhabitant), is mainly based on karstic water, a vulnerable underground water body. A large amount of precipitation fell on the catchment area of the karstic water source, causing an unusually strong karstic water flow and flooding, and subsequent microbiological contamination. The presence of several potential sources of contamination in the protective zone of the karstic water source should be emphasized. The water supplier was unprepared to treat the risk of waterborne outbreak caused by an extreme weather event. Public health intervention and hygienic measures were taken in line with epidemiological actions, focusing on the protection of consumers by providing safe drinking water. The contamination was identified, and measures were taken for risk reduction and prevention. This case study underlines the increasing importance of preparedness for extreme water events in order to protect the karstic water sources and to avoid waterborne outbreaks.

Climate extremes and the carbon cycle - a review using an integrated approach with regional examples for forests & native ecosystems -

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frank, D.; Reichstein, M.; Bahn, M.; Beer, C.; Ciais, P.; Mahecha, M.; Seneviratne, S. I.; Smith, P.; van Oijen, M.; Walz, A.

2012-04-01

The terrestrial carbon cycle provides an important biogeochemical feedback to climate and is itself particularly susceptible to extreme climate events. Climate extremes can override any (positive) effects of mean climate change as shown in European and recent US-American heat waves and dry spells. They can impact the structure, composition, and functioning of terrestrial ecosystems and have the potential to cause rapid carbon losses from accumulated stocks. We review how climate extremes like severe droughts, heat waves, extreme precipitation or storms can cause direct impacts on the CO2 fluxes [e.g. due to extreme temperature and/ or drought events] as well as lagged impacts on the carbon cycle [e.g. via an increased fire risk, or disease outbreaks and pest invasions]. The relative impact of the different climate extremes varies according to climate region and vegetation type. We present lagged effects on plant growth (and mortality) in the year(s) following an extreme event and their impacts on the carbon sequestration of forests and natural ecosystems. Comprehensive regional or even continental quantification with regard to extreme events is missing, and especially compound extreme events, the role of lagged effects and aspects of the return frequency are not studied enough. In a case study of a Mediterranean ecosystem we illustrate that the response of the net carbon balance at ecosystem level to regional climate change is hard to predict as interacting and partly compensating processes are affected and several processes which have the ability to substantially alter the carbon balance are not or not sufficiently represented in state-of-the-art biogeochemical models.

Do one percent of the forest fires cause ninety-nine percent of the damage? Forest Science

Treesearch

David Strauss; Larry Bednar; Romain Mees

1989-01-01

A relatively small number of forest fires are responsible for a very high proportion of the total damage. The proportion due to the fraction p of largest fires, when plotted against p, is a measure of variability of fire sizes that is especially sensitive to the important extreme events. We find the theoretical form of the plot for several commonly used distributions...

[Blunt force injuries due to martial arts in children--a diagnostic problem? Delayed diagnosis of an infected hematoma].

PubMed

Kruppa, C; Goericke, S L; Matheney, T; Ozokyay, L; Schildhauer, T A; Muhr, G; Dudda, M

2010-10-01

Blunt force injuries in martial arts occur frequently but isolated hematoma of muscles in the extremities is rare. Even minor trauma of the lower extremities due to throwing techniques in judo and other forms of Asian martial arts can lead to major pathologies. A 9-year-old girl presented with an unclear swelling and soreness of the calf muscle. The patient could not remember an obvious traumatic event. She was admitted 4 days later because of increased swelling, pain and erythema. The parents reported a minor trauma at judo training 1 week ago. Further investigation was performed with MRI and confirmed a massive hematoma much greater than previously shown by sonography. Histologic and microbiologic evaluation demonstrated florid inflammation and proof of Staphylococcus aureus was found intra-operatively. The diagnosis of blunt force injuries due to martial arts is difficult in childhood because often children do not remember a traumatic event. Therefore, it is important to obtain a thorough history from caregivers. Because sonography depends highly on the experience of the investigator MRI is considered to be a better diagnostic modality to diagnose and guide treatment in this age group.

Risk factors for generally reduced productivity--a prospective cohort study of young adults with neck or upper-extremity musculoskeletal symptoms.

PubMed

Boström, Maria; Dellve, Lotta; Thomée, Sara; Hagberg, Mats

2008-04-01

This study prospectively assessed the importance of individual conditions and computer use during school or work and leisure time as risk factors for self-reported generally reduced productivity due to musculoskeletal complaints among young adults with musculoskeletal symptoms in the neck or upper extremities. A cohort of 2914 young adults (18-25 years, vocational school and college or university students) responded to an internet-based questionnaire concerning musculoskeletal symptoms related to individual conditions and computer use during school or work and leisure time that possibly affected general productivity. Prevalence ratios (PR) were used to assess prospective risk factors for generally reduced productivity. The selected study sample (N=1051) had reported neck or upper-extremity symptoms. At baseline, 280 of them reported reduced productivity. A follow-up of the 771 who reported no reduced productivity was carried out after 1 year. Risk factors for self-reported generally reduced productivity for those followed-up were symptoms in two or three locations or dimensions for the upper back or neck and the shoulders, arms, wrists, or hands [PR 2.30, 95% confidence interval (95% CI) 1.40-3.78], symptoms persisting longer than 90 days in the shoulders, arms, wrists, or hands (PR 2.50, 95% CI 1.12-5.58), current symptoms in the shoulders, arms, wrists, or hands (PR 1.78, 95% CI 1.10-2.90) and computer use 8-14 hours/week during leisure time (PR 2.32, 95% CI 1.20-4.47). A stronger relationship was found if three or four risk factors were present. For women, a relationship was found between generally reduced productivity and widespread and current symptoms in the upper extremities. The main risk factors for generally reduced productivity due to musculoskeletal symptoms among young adults in this study were chronic symptoms in the upper extremities and widespread symptoms in the neck and upper extremities.

Impacts of climate change on rainfall extremes and urban drainage systems: a review.

PubMed

Arnbjerg-Nielsen, K; Willems, P; Olsson, J; Beecham, S; Pathirana, A; Bülow Gregersen, I; Madsen, H; Nguyen, V-T-V

2013-01-01

A review is made of current methods for assessing future changes in urban rainfall extremes and their effects on urban drainage systems, due to anthropogenic-induced climate change. The review concludes that in spite of significant advances there are still many limitations in our understanding of how to describe precipitation patterns in a changing climate in order to design and operate urban drainage infrastructure. Climate change may well be the driver that ensures that changes in urban drainage paradigms are identified and suitable solutions implemented. Design and optimization of urban drainage infrastructure considering climate change impacts and co-optimizing these with other objectives will become ever more important to keep our cities habitable into the future.

Mangrove species' responses to winter air temperature extremes in China

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chen, Luzhen; Wang, Wenqing; Li, Qingshun Q.; Zhang, Yihui; Yang, Shengchang; Osland, Michael J.; Huang, Jinliang; Peng, Congjiao

2017-01-01

The global distribution and diversity of mangrove forests is greatly influenced by the frequency and intensity of winter air temperature extremes. However, our understanding of how different mangrove species respond to winter temperature extremes has been lacking because extreme freezing and chilling events are, by definition, relatively uncommon and also difficult to replicate experimentally. In this study, we investigated species-specific variation in mangrove responses to winter temperature extremes in China. In 10 sites that span a latitudinal gradient, we quantified species-specific damage and recovery following a chilling event, for mangrove species within and outside of their natural range (i.e., native and non-native species, respectively). To characterize plant stress, we measured tree defoliation and chlorophyll fluorescence approximately one month following the chilling event. To quantify recovery, we measured chlorophyll fluorescence approximately nine months after the chilling event. Our results show high variation in the geographic- and species-specific responses of mangroves to winter temperature extremes. While many species were sensitive to the chilling temperatures (e.g., Bruguiera sexangula and species in the Sonneratia and Rhizophora genera), the temperatures during this event were not cold enough to affect certain species (e.g., Kandelia obovata, Aegiceras corniculatum, Avicennia marina, and Bruguiera gymnorrhiza). As expected, non-native species were less tolerant of winter temperature extremes than native species. Interestingly, tidal inundation modulated the effects of chilling. In comparison with other temperature-controlled mangrove range limits across the world, the mangrove range limit in China is unique due to the combination of the following three factors: (1) Mangrove species diversity is comparatively high; (2) winter air temperature extremes, rather than means, are particularly intense and play an important ecological role; and (3) due to afforestation and restoration efforts, several species of non-native mangroves have been introduced beyond their natural range limits. Hence, from a global perspective, mangroves in China provide valuable opportunities to advance understanding of the effects of freezing and chilling temperatures on mangroves. Within the context of climate change, our findings provide a foundation for better understanding and preparing for mangrove species-specific responses to future changes in the duration and intensity of winter temperature extremes.

Adaptation potential of naturally ventilated barns to high temperature extremes: The OptiBarn project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Menz, Christoph

2016-04-01

Climate change interferes with various aspects of the socio-economic system. One important aspect is its influence on animal husbandry, especially dairy faming. Dairy cows are usually kept in naturally ventilated barns (NVBs) which are particular vulnerable to extreme events due to their low adaptation capabilities. An effective adaptation to high outdoor temperatures for example, is only possible under certain wind and humidity conditions. High temperature extremes are expected to increase in number and strength under climate change. To assess the impact of this change on NVBs and dairy cows also the changes in wind and humidity needs to be considered. Hence we need to consider the multivariate structure of future temperature extremes. The OptiBarn project aims to develop sustainable adaptation strategies for dairy housings under climate change for Europe, by considering the multivariate structure of high temperature extremes. In a first step we identify various multivariate high temperature extremes for three core regions in Europe. With respect to dairy cows in NVBs we will focus on the wind and humidity field during high temperature events. In a second step we will use the CORDEX-EUR-11 ensemble to evaluate the capability of the RCMs to model such events and assess their future change potential. By transferring the outdoor conditions to indoor climate and animal wellbeing the results of this assessment can be used to develop technical, architectural and animal specific adaptation strategies for high temperature extremes.

Military suicide: factors that need to be taken into consideration to understand the phenomena.

PubMed

Rodríguez, José R; Quiñones-Maldonado, Randy; Alvarado-Pomales, Awilda

2009-01-01

Soldier suicide rates, unfortunately, continue to rise in our military services. It is well known that military personnel are highly vulnerable to multiple psychopathologies due to a lack of social support system, traumatizing life events and deprived sense of control. Serious psychopathologies such as post-traumatic stress disorders, other anxiety disorders (i.e., generalized anxiety disorder) and depression may increase the risk of suicide. In addition, malingering may be a serious problem that can affect valid treatment due to an intentional production of false or grossly exaggerated physical or psychological symptoms, motivated by external incentive such as avoiding military duty or obtaining financial compensation. Moreover, Hispanic soldiers may be at a higher risk for such psychopathologies due to extreme marginalization conditions by military peers, lack of bilingual language management and discrimination that can severely affect their quality of life. Thus, it is important to recognize those problems in order to prevent them. Literature demonstrate that Primary Preventive Interventions (PPI) can help to reduce the incidence of psychiatric disorders due to an early identification of the mental conditions associate to serious outcome, such as suicide. Taking the previous factors into consideration, the relevant literature pertaining suicidality in service members and the mental disorders associated with it is reviewed. Furthermore, emphasis is made in the importance to develop and validate a battery of screening instruments that address the previous conditions in the military personnel, especially in the Hispanic/Latino soldier and/or veteran as future plans of interventions. This implies the creation, adaptation and administration of a Psychological Battery that will be culturally sensitive for Hispanic/Latino soldiers in which the screening of the previously mentioned pathologies and conditions can be identified. This may help to prevent serious psychological situations and extreme irreversible damage, such as suicide.

DSMC analysis of species separation in rarefied nozzle flows

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chung, Chan-Hong; De Witt, Kenneth J.; Jeng, Duen-Ren; Penko, Paul F.

1992-01-01

The direct-simulation Monte Carlo method has been used to investigate the behavior of a small amount of a harmful species in the plume and the backflow region of nuclear thermal propulsion rockets. Species separation due to pressure diffusion and nonequilibrium effects due to rapid expansion into a surrounding low-density environment are the most important factors in this type of flow. It is shown that a relatively large amount of the lighter species is scattered into the backflow region and the heavier species becomes negligible in this region due to the extreme separation between species. It is also shown that the type of molecular interaction between the species can have a substantial effect on separation of the species.

Long-term functional changes in an estuarine fish assemblage.

PubMed

Baptista, J; Martinho, F; Nyitrai, D; Pardal, M A; Dolbeth, M

2015-08-15

The functional diversity of the fish assemblages of the Mondego estuary was studied for a discontinuous 30-year period (1988-2012). During this time, hydrological changes occurred due to man-induced alterations and weather extremes. These changes led to alterations in the structure and function of the fish community. Species richness and functional richness decreased over time and the fish community started to explore new micro-habitats and food resources. Before severe hydrological changes, the community was dominated by pelagic, detritivorous and species with wider salinity ranges. After, the community became dominated by demersal, benthic, piscivorous and marine species. During a drought, omnivorous became increasingly important, reflecting greater possibilities of using available feeding resources. We have also found an increase in sub-tropical species throughout the years, which might be related to gradual temperature increases at a global scale. This study also confirmed estuaries as extremely important for restocking several commercial species. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Enzyme activity screening of thermophilic bacteria isolated from Dusun Tua Hot Spring, Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Msarah, Marwan; Ibrahim, Izyanti; Aqma, Wan Syaidatul

2018-04-01

Thermophilic bacteria have biotechnological importance due to the availability of unique enzymes which are stable in extreme circumstances. The aim of this study includes to isolate thermophilic bacteria from hot spring and screen for important enzyme activities. Water samples from the Dusun Tua Hot Spring were collected and the physiochemical characterisation of water was measured. Eight thermophilic bacteria were isolated and determined to have at least three strong enzyme activity including protease, lipase, amylase, cellulase, pectinase and xylanase. The results showed that HuluC2 displayed all the enzyme activities and can be further studied.

Atmospheric rivers and past hydrometeorological extremes: Challenges and opportunities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sodemann, Harald

2017-04-01

Atmospheric rivers are a key term for describing water vapour transport in extratropical regions. The concept has become particularly valuable for linking meteorological process understanding with research focused on the impacts of heavy precipitation. Atmospheric rivers are narrow, elongated features of high integrated water vapour and water vapour flux can lead to severe precipitation and flooding if moisture is extracted efficiently. The orographic rises at the West Coast of the United States and Western Norway are regions where Atmospheric Rivers are one of the prime mechanisms for moisture delivery and precipitation extremes in the present climate. Due to the small horizontal scales of some of the processes climate models are challenged to represent this important transport process between mid-latitudes and the subtropics faithfully. Recent aircraft data and regional tracer model studies provide new insight into the formation and moisture transport mechanisms. In this study I review the concept and pertinent processes of Atmospheric Rivers, thereby focusing on caveats, challenges and opportunities for understanding past hydrometeorological extremes.

Surgical Treatment of Axillary Artery Aneurysm

PubMed Central

Tetik, Omer; Yilik, Levent; Besir, Yuksel; Can, Aynur; Ozbek, Cengiz; Akcay, Ayhan; Gurbuz, Ali

2005-01-01

Aneurysms of the axillary artery are rare and dangerous lesions that threaten the upper extremities with vascular and neurologic compromise. Most can be treated effectively with surgical excision and vascular grafting. We retrospectively assessed 4 axillary artery aneurysms upon which we operated from February 1998 through March 2004. Three patients were admitted to our clinic for symptomatic axillary masses. The remaining patient was transported to our clinic emergently due to massive hemorrhage of an enlarging axillary mass that occurred during biopsy of the mass at another hospital. In this patient, the ruptured axillary artery aneurysm was diagnosed by means of emergent upper-extremity selective angiography. All patients were treated surgically by means of aneurysmectomy and graft interpositioning—with polytetrafluoroethylene grafts in 2 patients and saphenous vein grafts in the other 2. Surgical treatment of axillary artery aneurysms is of importance in avoiding thromboembolism and ischemia, which in turn can lead to gangrene and amputation of the affected extremity. For this reason, operative management of such cases should not be delayed. PMID:16107110

Low-frequency climate anomalies, changes in synoptic scale circulation patterns and statistics of extreme events over south-east Poland during the Last Millennium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Slawinska, J. M.; Bartoszek, K.; Gabriel, C. J.

2016-12-01

Long-term predictions of changes in extreme event frequency are of utmost importance due to their high societal and economic impact. Yet, current projections are of limited skills as they rely on satellite records that are relatively short compared to the timescale of interest, and also due to the presence of a significant anthropogenic trend superimposed onto other low-frequency variabilities. Novel simulations of past climates provide unique opportunity to separate external perturbations from internal climate anomalies and to attribute the latter to systematic changes in different types of synoptic scale circulation and distributions of high-frequency events. Here we study such changes by employing the Last Millennium Ensemble of climate simulations carried out with the Community Earth System Model (CESM) at the U.S. National Center for Atmospheric Research, focusing in particular on decadal changes in frequency of extreme precipitation events over south-east Poland. We analyze low-frequency modulations of dominant patterns of synoptic scale circulations over Europe and their dependence on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, along with their coupling with the North Atlantic Oscillation. Moreover, we examine whether some decades of persistently anomalous statistics of extreme events can be attributed to externally forced (e.g., via volcanic eruptions) perturbations of the North Atlantic climate. In the end, we discuss the possible linkages and physical mechanisms connecting volcanic eruptions, low-frequency variabilities of North Atlantic climate and changes in statistics of high impact weather, and compare briefly our results with some historical and paleontological records.

Climate Change Impacts on the Upper Indus Hydrology: Sources, Shifts and Extremes

PubMed Central

Immerzeel, W. W.; Kraaijenbrink, P. D. A.; Shrestha, A. B.; Bierkens, M. F. P.

2016-01-01

The Indus basin heavily depends on its upstream mountainous part for the downstream supply of water while downstream demands are high. Since downstream demands will likely continue to increase, accurate hydrological projections for the future supply are important. We use an ensemble of statistically downscaled CMIP5 General Circulation Model outputs for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 to force a cryospheric-hydrological model and generate transient hydrological projections for the entire 21st century for the upper Indus basin. Three methodological advances are introduced: (i) A new precipitation dataset that corrects for the underestimation of high-altitude precipitation is used. (ii) The model is calibrated using data on river runoff, snow cover and geodetic glacier mass balance. (iii) An advanced statistical downscaling technique is used that accounts for changes in precipitation extremes. The analysis of the results focuses on changes in sources of runoff, seasonality and hydrological extremes. We conclude that the future of the upper Indus basin’s water availability is highly uncertain in the long run, mainly due to the large spread in the future precipitation projections. Despite large uncertainties in the future climate and long-term water availability, basin-wide patterns and trends of seasonal shifts in water availability are consistent across climate change scenarios. Most prominent is the attenuation of the annual hydrograph and shift from summer peak flow towards the other seasons for most ensemble members. In addition there are distinct spatial patterns in the response that relate to monsoon influence and the importance of meltwater. Analysis of future hydrological extremes reveals that increases in intensity and frequency of extreme discharges are very likely for most of the upper Indus basin and most ensemble members. PMID:27828994

Climate Change Impacts on the Upper Indus Hydrology: Sources, Shifts and Extremes.

PubMed

Lutz, A F; Immerzeel, W W; Kraaijenbrink, P D A; Shrestha, A B; Bierkens, M F P

2016-01-01

The Indus basin heavily depends on its upstream mountainous part for the downstream supply of water while downstream demands are high. Since downstream demands will likely continue to increase, accurate hydrological projections for the future supply are important. We use an ensemble of statistically downscaled CMIP5 General Circulation Model outputs for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 to force a cryospheric-hydrological model and generate transient hydrological projections for the entire 21st century for the upper Indus basin. Three methodological advances are introduced: (i) A new precipitation dataset that corrects for the underestimation of high-altitude precipitation is used. (ii) The model is calibrated using data on river runoff, snow cover and geodetic glacier mass balance. (iii) An advanced statistical downscaling technique is used that accounts for changes in precipitation extremes. The analysis of the results focuses on changes in sources of runoff, seasonality and hydrological extremes. We conclude that the future of the upper Indus basin's water availability is highly uncertain in the long run, mainly due to the large spread in the future precipitation projections. Despite large uncertainties in the future climate and long-term water availability, basin-wide patterns and trends of seasonal shifts in water availability are consistent across climate change scenarios. Most prominent is the attenuation of the annual hydrograph and shift from summer peak flow towards the other seasons for most ensemble members. In addition there are distinct spatial patterns in the response that relate to monsoon influence and the importance of meltwater. Analysis of future hydrological extremes reveals that increases in intensity and frequency of extreme discharges are very likely for most of the upper Indus basin and most ensemble members.

Impacts of climate change on sub-regional electricity demand and distribution in the southern United States

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Allen, Melissa R.; Fernandez, Steven J.; Fu, Joshua S.

New tools are employed to develop an electricity demand map for the southeastern United States at neighborhood resolution to serve as a baseline from which to project increases in electricity demand due to a rise in global and local temperature and to population shifts motivated by increases in extreme weather events due to climate change. We find that electricity demand increases due to temperature rise over the next 40 years have a much smaller impact than those due to large population influx. In addition, we find evidence that some, sections of the national electrical grid are more adaptable to thesemore » population shifts and changing demand than others are; and that detailed projections of changing local electricity demand patterns are viable and important for planning at the urban level.« less

Impacts of climate change on sub-regional electricity demand and distribution in the southern United States

DOE PAGES

Allen, Melissa R.; Fernandez, Steven J.; Fu, Joshua S.; ...

2016-07-25

New tools are employed to develop an electricity demand map for the southeastern United States at neighborhood resolution to serve as a baseline from which to project increases in electricity demand due to a rise in global and local temperature and to population shifts motivated by increases in extreme weather events due to climate change. We find that electricity demand increases due to temperature rise over the next 40 years have a much smaller impact than those due to large population influx. In addition, we find evidence that some, sections of the national electrical grid are more adaptable to thesemore » population shifts and changing demand than others are; and that detailed projections of changing local electricity demand patterns are viable and important for planning at the urban level.« less

Evolution of precipitation extremes in two large ensembles of climate simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martel, Jean-Luc; Mailhot, Alain; Talbot, Guillaume; Brissette, François; Ludwig, Ralf; Frigon, Anne; Leduc, Martin; Turcotte, Richard

2017-04-01

Recent studies project significant changes in the future distribution of precipitation extremes due to global warming. It is likely that extreme precipitation intensity will increase in a future climate and that extreme events will be more frequent. In this work, annual maxima daily precipitation series from the Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2) 50-member large ensemble (spatial resolution of 2.8°x2.8°) and the Community Earth System Model (CESM1) 40-member large ensemble (spatial resolution of 1°x1°) are used to investigate extreme precipitation over the historical (1980-2010) and future (2070-2100) periods. The use of these ensembles results in respectively 1 500 (30 years x 50 members) and 1200 (30 years x 40 members) simulated years over both the historical and future periods. These large datasets allow the computation of empirical daily extreme precipitation quantiles for large return periods. Using the CanESM2 and CESM1 large ensembles, extreme daily precipitation with return periods ranging from 2 to 100 years are computed in historical and future periods to assess the impact of climate change. Results indicate that daily precipitation extremes generally increase in the future over most land grid points and that these increases will also impact the 100-year extreme daily precipitation. Considering that many public infrastructures have lifespans exceeding 75 years, the increase in extremes has important implications on service levels of water infrastructures and public safety. Estimated increases in precipitation associated to very extreme precipitation events (e.g. 100 years) will drastically change the likelihood of flooding and their extent in future climate. These results, although interesting, need to be extended to sub-daily durations, relevant for urban flooding protection and urban infrastructure design (e.g. sewer networks, culverts). Models and simulations at finer spatial and temporal resolution are therefore needed.

A comparative assessment of statistical methods for extreme weather analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schlögl, Matthias; Laaha, Gregor

2017-04-01

Extreme weather exposure assessment is of major importance for scientists and practitioners alike. We compare different extreme value approaches and fitting methods with respect to their value for assessing extreme precipitation and temperature impacts. Based on an Austrian data set from 25 meteorological stations representing diverse meteorological conditions, we assess the added value of partial duration series over the standardly used annual maxima series in order to give recommendations for performing extreme value statistics of meteorological hazards. Results show the merits of the robust L-moment estimation, which yielded better results than maximum likelihood estimation in 62 % of all cases. At the same time, results question the general assumption of the threshold excess approach (employing partial duration series, PDS) being superior to the block maxima approach (employing annual maxima series, AMS) due to information gain. For low return periods (non-extreme events) the PDS approach tends to overestimate return levels as compared to the AMS approach, whereas an opposite behavior was found for high return levels (extreme events). In extreme cases, an inappropriate threshold was shown to lead to considerable biases that may outperform the possible gain of information from including additional extreme events by far. This effect was neither visible from the square-root criterion, nor from standardly used graphical diagnosis (mean residual life plot), but from a direct comparison of AMS and PDS in synoptic quantile plots. We therefore recommend performing AMS and PDS approaches simultaneously in order to select the best suited approach. This will make the analyses more robust, in cases where threshold selection and dependency introduces biases to the PDS approach, but also in cases where the AMS contains non-extreme events that may introduce similar biases. For assessing the performance of extreme events we recommend conditional performance measures that focus on rare events only in addition to standardly used unconditional indicators. The findings of this study are of relevance for a broad range of environmental variables, including meteorological and hydrological quantities.

Impact and recovery process of mini flash crashes: An empirical study.

PubMed

Braun, Tobias; Fiegen, Jonas A; Wagner, Daniel C; Krause, Sebastian M; Guhr, Thomas

2018-01-01

In an Ultrafast Extreme Event (or Mini Flash Crash), the price of a traded stock increases or decreases strongly within milliseconds. We present a detailed study of Ultrafast Extreme Events in stock market data. In contrast to popular belief, our analysis suggests that most of the Ultrafast Extreme Events are not necessarily due to feedbacks in High Frequency Trading: In at least 60 percent of the observed Ultrafast Extreme Events, the largest fraction of the price change is due to a single market order. In times of financial crisis, large market orders are more likely which leads to a significant increase of Ultrafast Extreme Events occurrences. Furthermore, we analyze the 100 trades following each Ultrafast Extreme Events. While we observe a tendency of the prices to partially recover, less than 40 percent recover completely. On the other hand we find 25 percent of the Ultrafast Extreme Events to be almost recovered after only one trade which differs from the usually found price impact of market orders.

Impact and recovery process of mini flash crashes: An empirical study

PubMed Central

Wagner, Daniel C.; Krause, Sebastian M.; Guhr, Thomas

2018-01-01

In an Ultrafast Extreme Event (or Mini Flash Crash), the price of a traded stock increases or decreases strongly within milliseconds. We present a detailed study of Ultrafast Extreme Events in stock market data. In contrast to popular belief, our analysis suggests that most of the Ultrafast Extreme Events are not necessarily due to feedbacks in High Frequency Trading: In at least 60 percent of the observed Ultrafast Extreme Events, the largest fraction of the price change is due to a single market order. In times of financial crisis, large market orders are more likely which leads to a significant increase of Ultrafast Extreme Events occurrences. Furthermore, we analyze the 100 trades following each Ultrafast Extreme Events. While we observe a tendency of the prices to partially recover, less than 40 percent recover completely. On the other hand we find 25 percent of the Ultrafast Extreme Events to be almost recovered after only one trade which differs from the usually found price impact of market orders. PMID:29782503

Spatio-temporal trends of rainfall across Indian river basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bisht, Deepak Singh; Chatterjee, Chandranath; Raghuwanshi, Narendra Singh; Sridhar, Venkataramana

2018-04-01

Daily gridded high-resolution rainfall data of India Meteorological Department at 0.25° spatial resolution (1901-2015) was analyzed to detect the trend in seasonal, annual, and maximum cumulative rainfall for 1, 2, 3, and 5 days. The present study was carried out for 85 river basins of India during 1901-2015 and pre- and post-urbanization era, i.e., 1901-1970 and 1971-2015, respectively. Mann-Kendall ( α = 0.05) and Theil-Sen's tests were employed for detecting the trend and percentage of change over the period of time, respectively. Daily extreme rainfall events, above 95 and 99 percentile threshold, were also analyzed to detect any trend in their magnitude and number of occurrences. The upward trend was found for the majority of the sub-basins for 1-, 2-, 3-, and 5-day maximum cumulative rainfall during the post-urbanization era. The magnitude of extreme threshold events is also found to be increasing in the majority of the river basins during the post-urbanization era. A 30-year moving window analysis further revealed a widespread upward trend in a number of extreme threshold rainfall events possibly due to urbanization and climatic factors. Overall trends studied against intra-basin trend across Ganga basin reveal the mixed pattern of trends due to inherent spatial heterogeneity of rainfall, therefore, highlighting the importance of scale for such studies.

The influence of wheelchair propulsion technique on upper extremity muscle demand: a simulation study.

PubMed

Rankin, Jeffery W; Kwarciak, Andrew M; Richter, W Mark; Neptune, Richard R

2012-11-01

The majority of manual wheelchair users will experience upper extremity injuries or pain, in part due to the high force requirements, repetitive motion and extreme joint postures associated with wheelchair propulsion. Recent studies have identified cadence, contact angle and peak force as important factors for reducing upper extremity demand during propulsion. However, studies often make comparisons between populations (e.g., able-bodied vs. paraplegic) or do not investigate specific measures of upper extremity demand. The purpose of this study was to use a musculoskeletal model and forward dynamics simulations of wheelchair propulsion to investigate how altering cadence, peak force and contact angle influence individual muscle demand. Forward dynamics simulations of wheelchair propulsion were generated to emulate group-averaged experimental data during four conditions: 1) self-selected propulsion technique, and while 2) minimizing cadence, 3) maximizing contact angle, and 4) minimizing peak force using biofeedback. Simulations were used to determine individual muscle mechanical power and stress as measures of muscle demand. Minimizing peak force and cadence had the lowest muscle power requirements. However, minimizing peak force increased cadence and recovery power, while minimizing cadence increased average muscle stress. Maximizing contact angle increased muscle stress and had the highest muscle power requirements. Minimizing cadence appears to have the most potential for reducing muscle demand and fatigue, which could decrease upper extremity injuries and pain. However, altering any of these variables to extreme values appears to be less effective; instead small to moderate changes may better reduce overall muscle demand. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The extremely narrow-caliber esophagus is a treatment-resistant subphenotype of eosinophilic esophagitis.

PubMed

Eluri, Swathi; Runge, Thomas M; Cotton, Cary C; Burk, Caitlin M; Wolf, W Asher; Woosley, John T; Shaheen, Nicholas J; Dellon, Evan S

2016-06-01

Some patients with eosinophilic esophagitis (EoE) have an extremely narrow esophagus, but the characteristics of this group have not been extensively described. We aimed to characterize the narrow-caliber phenotype of EoE, determine associated risk factors, and identify differences in treatment response in this subgroup of patients. This retrospective cohort study from 2001 to 2014 included subjects with a new diagnosis of EoE per consensus guidelines. Demographic, endoscopic, histologic, and treatment response data were extracted from medical records. An extremely narrow-caliber esophagus was defined when a neonatal endoscope was required to traverse the esophagus due to the inability to pass an adult endoscope. Patients with and without an extremely narrow-caliber esophagus were compared. Multivariable logistical regression was performed to assess treatment outcomes. Of 513 patients with EoE, 46 (9%) had an extremely narrow-caliber esophagus. These patients were older (33 vs 22 years; P < .01), had longer symptom duration (11 vs 3 years; P < .01), more dysphagia (98% vs 66%; P < .01), and food impactions (53% vs 31%; P < .01). Dilation was more common with extreme narrowing (69% vs 17%; P < .01). Patients with a narrow-caliber esophagus were more refractory to steroid treatment, with lower symptom (56% vs 85%), endoscopic (52% vs 76%), and histologic (33% vs 63%) responses (P < .01 for all), and these differences persisted after multivariate analysis. The extremely narrow-caliber esophagus is a more treatment-resistant subphenotype of EoE and is characterized by longer symptom duration and the need for multiple dilations. Recognition of an extremely narrow-caliber esophagus at diagnosis of EoE can provide important prognostic information. Copyright © 2016 American Society for Gastrointestinal Endoscopy. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Effects of Extreme Events on Arsenic Cycling in Salt Marshes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Northrup, Kristy; Capooci, Margaret; Seyfferth, Angelia L.

2018-03-01

Extreme events such as storm surges, intense precipitation, and supermoons cause anomalous and large fluctuations in water level in tidal salt marshes, which impacts the sediment biogeochemistry that dictates arsenic (As) cycling. In addition to changes in water level, which impacts soil redox potential, these extreme events may also change salinity due to freshwater inputs from precipitation or saltwater inputs due to surge. It is currently unknown how As mobility in tidal salt marshes will be impacted by extreme events, as fluctuations in salinity and redox potential may act synergistically to mobilize As. To investigate impacts of extreme events on As cycling in tidal salt marshes, we conducted a combined laboratory and field investigation. We monitored pore water and soil samples before, during, and after two extreme events: a supermoon lunar eclipse followed by a storm surge and precipitation induced by Hurricane Joaquin in fall 2015 at the St. Jones Reserve in Dover, Delaware, a representative tidal salt marsh in the Mid-Atlantic United States. We also conducted soil incubations of marsh sediments in batch and in flow-through experiments in which redox potential and/or salinity were manipulated. Field investigations showed that pore water As was inversely proportional to redox potential. During the extreme events, a distinct pulse of As was observed in the pore water with maximum salinity. Combined field and laboratory investigations revealed that this As pulse is likely due to rapid changes in salinity. These results have implications for As mobility in the face of extreme weather variability.

A New Route toward Systematic Control of Electronic Structures of Graphene and Fabrication of Graphene Field Effect Transistors

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-05-31

Graphene has been proposed as a material for heat dissipation owing to its extremely high thermal conductivity . It was reported that the incorporation...between the thermal conductivity and adhesion forces depending on the number of graphene layers used. Therefore, it is important to optimize growth...during various processes involved in device fabrication and will degrade the electrical and thermal conductivity of graphene due to charge trapping and

Extreme Rainfall Events Over Southern Africa: Assessment of a Climate Model to Reproduce Daily Extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, C.; Kniveton, D.; Layberry, R.

2007-12-01

It is increasingly accepted that any possible climate change will not only have an influence on mean climate but may also significantly alter climatic variability. This issue is of particular importance for environmentally vulnerable regions such as southern Africa. The subcontinent is considered especially vulnerable extreme events, due to a number of factors including extensive poverty, disease and political instability. Rainfall variability and the identification of rainfall extremes is a function of scale, so high spatial and temporal resolution data are preferred to identify extreme events and accurately predict future variability. The majority of previous climate model verification studies have compared model output with observational data at monthly timescales. In this research, the assessment of a state-of-the-art climate model to simulate climate at daily timescales is carried out using satellite derived rainfall data from the Microwave Infra-Red Algorithm (MIRA). This dataset covers the period from 1993-2002 and the whole of southern Africa at a spatial resolution of 0.1 degree longitude/latitude. Once the model's ability to reproduce extremes has been assessed, idealised regions of SST anomalies are used to force the model, with the overall aim of investigating the ways in which SST anomalies influence rainfall extremes over southern Africa. In this paper, results from sensitivity testing of the UK Meteorological Office Hadley Centre's climate model's domain size are firstly presented. Then simulations of current climate from the model, operating in both regional and global mode, are compared to the MIRA dataset at daily timescales. Thirdly, the ability of the model to reproduce daily rainfall extremes will be assessed, again by a comparison with extremes from the MIRA dataset. Finally, the results from the idealised SST experiments are briefly presented, suggesting associations between rainfall extremes and both local and remote SST anomalies.

The Imprint of Extreme Climate Events in Century-Long Time Series of Wood Anatomical Traits in High-Elevation Conifers

PubMed Central

Carrer, Marco; Brunetti, Michele; Castagneri, Daniele

2016-01-01

Extreme climate events are of key importance for forest ecosystems. However, both the inherent infrequency, stochasticity and multiplicity of extreme climate events, and the array of biological responses, challenges investigations. To cope with the long life cycle of trees and the paucity of the extreme events themselves, our inferences should be based on long-term observations. In this context, tree rings and the related xylem anatomical traits represent promising sources of information, due to the wide time perspective and quality of the information they can provide. Here we test, on two high-elevation conifers (Larix decidua and Picea abies sampled at 2100 m a.s.l. in the Eastern Alps), the associations among temperature extremes during the growing season and xylem anatomical traits, specifically the number of cells per ring (CN), cell wall thickness (CWT), and cell diameter (CD). To better track the effect of extreme events over the growing season, tree rings were partitioned in 10 sectors. Climate variability has been reconstructed, for 1800–2011 at monthly resolution and for 1926–2011 at daily resolution, by exploiting the excellent availability of very long and high quality instrumental records available for the surrounding area, and taking into account the relationship between meteorological variables and site topographical settings. Summer temperature influenced anatomical traits of both species, and tree-ring anatomical profiles resulted as being associated to temperature extremes. Most of the extreme values in anatomical traits occurred with warm (positive extremes) or cold (negative) conditions. However, 0–34% of occurrences did not match a temperature extreme event. Specifically, CWT and CN extremes were more clearly associated to climate than CD, which presented a bias to track cold extremes. Dendroanatomical analysis, coupled to high-quality daily-resolved climate records, seems a promising approach to study the effects of extreme events on trees, but further investigations are needed to improve our comprehension of the critical role of such elusive events in forest ecosystems. PMID:27242880

The climatic implications of the Holocene floods in the north-western Himalaya, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharma, S.; Shukla, A. D.; Bartarya, S.; Marh, B.; Juyal, N.

2016-12-01

Understanding the growing trend of extreme hydrological events in response to climate variabilities is a major area of interest in the climate change science. More important so as the predictions suggest increased frequency and/or magnitude of floods in the Himalayan region due to more intense/frequent coupling between the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) and the mid-latitude westerlies. In view of this, studies pertaining to the geological evidence of extreme hydrological events (paleofloods) become important as these not only extend beyond the instrumental records but ensures better understanding of the pattern of river response to the extreme climate variability.The Satluj River in the north-western Himalaya is infamous for its history of recurrent and devastating floods for which there is no data beyond the historical record. The present study in the middle Satluj valley is a contribution towards expanding the cognizance of the climate and geomorphic processes responsible for the Holocene extreme events. Based on sedimentology and grain size variability a total of 24 flood events of increasing magnitude are identified. The geochemical data indicate that the flood sediments were mostly generated and transported from the Higher Himalayan Crystalline with some contribution from the Trans-Himalaya. The optical chronology allow us to identify four major flood clusters which are dated between 13-11 ka; 8-4 ka; 4-2 ka and < 2 ka respectively. Climatically, these correspond to the cooler/relatively drier climatic condition (weak monsoon) and broadly correlate with the phases of negative Arctic Oscillation (‒AO) and negative North Atlantic Oscillation (-NAO).

Assessment and comparison of extreme sea levels and waves during the 2013/14 storm season in two UK coastal regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wadey, M. P.; Brown, J. M.; Haigh, I. D.; Dolphin, T.; Wisse, P.

2015-10-01

The extreme sea levels and waves experienced around the UK's coast during the 2013/14 winter caused extensive coastal flooding and damage. Coastal managers seek to place such extremes in relation to the anticipated standards of flood protection, and the long-term recovery of the natural system. In this context, return periods are often used as a form of guidance. This paper provides these levels for the winter storms, and discusses their application to the given data sets for two UK case study sites: Sefton, northwest England, and Suffolk, east England. Tide gauge records and wave buoy data were used to compare the 2013/14 storms with return periods from a national data set, and also joint probabilities of sea level and wave heights were generated, incorporating the recent events. The 2013/14 high waters and waves were extreme due to the number of events, as well as the extremity of the 5 December 2013 "Xaver" storm, which had a high return period at both case study sites. The national-scale impact of this event was due to its coincidence with spring high tide at multiple locations. Given that this event is such an outlier in the joint probability analyses of these observed data sets, and that the season saw several events in close succession, coastal defences appear to have provided a good level of protection. This type of assessment could in the future be recorded alongside defence performance and upgrade. Ideally other variables (e.g. river levels at estuarine locations) would also be included, and with appropriate offsetting for local trends (e.g. mean sea-level rise) so that the storm-driven component of coastal flood events can be determined. This could allow long-term comparison of storm severity, and an assessment of how sea-level rise influences return levels over time, which is important for consideration of coastal resilience in strategic management plans.

Multicomponent Pt-Based Zigzag Nanowires as Selectivity Controllers for Selective Hydrogenation Reactions.

PubMed

Bai, Shuxing; Bu, Lingzheng; Shao, Qi; Zhu, Xing; Huang, Xiaoqing

2018-06-22

The selective hydrogenation of α, β-unsaturated aldehyde is an extremely important transformation, while developing efficient catalysts with desirable selectivity to highly value-added products is challenging, mainly due to the coexistence of two conjugated unsaturated functional groups. Herein, we report that a series of Pt-based zigzag nanowires (ZNWs) can be adopted as selectivity controllers for α, β-unsaturated aldehyde hydrogenation, where the excellent unsaturated alcohol (UOL) selectivity (>95%) and high saturated aldehyde (SA) selectivity (>94%) are achieved on PtFe ZNWs and PtFeNi ZNWs+AlCl 3 , respectively. The excellent UOL selectivity of PtFe ZNWs is attributed to the lower electron density of the surface Pt atoms, while the high SA selectivity of PtFeNi ZNWs+AlCl 3 is due to synergy between PtFeNi ZNWs and AlCl 3 , highlighting the importance of Pt-based NWs with precisely controlled surface and composition for catalysis and beyond.

Devaki syndrome: a culture-bound psychological reaction in Indian Hindu women in response to repeated pregnancy loss?

PubMed

Nath, Kamal; Bhattacharya, Arnab; Sinha, Prakriti; Praharaj, Samir Kumar

2015-02-01

Depression and anxiety are observed in pregnant women with previous foetal loss due to spontaneous abortions. Culture has important influence on the expression of psychopathology. We report two Hindu women during second trimester of pregnancy with symptoms of depression and anxiety along with identification with a mythological figure - Devaki, with extreme preoccupations with child Krishna and expecting a male child, which precipitated after a series of unfortunate foetal losses. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Mineral resource of the month: pumice and pumicite

USGS Publications Warehouse

,

2009-01-01

The article offers information on pumice, an important commodity for the construction, horticulture and abrasives industries. The commodity is described as an extremely light, highly porous extrusive volcanic rock which was formed due to the rapid cooling of air-pocketed lava. It is noted that the characteristics of pumice make it as an ideal aggregate material in lightweight building blocks in the U.S. and abroad. The leading countries in terms of pumice production are Greece and the U.S.

Application of Fiber-Optical Techniques in the Access Transmission and Backbone Transport of Mobile Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hilt, Attila; Pozsonyi, László

2012-09-01

Fixed access networks widely employ fiber-optical techniques due to the extremely wide bandwidth offered to subscribers. In the last decade, there has also been an enormous increase of user data visible in mobile systems. The importance of fiber-optical techniques within the fixed transmission/transport networks of mobile systems is therefore inevitably increasing. This article summarizes a few reasons and gives examples why and how fiber-optic techniques are employed efficiently in second-generation networks.

EEG and Coma.

PubMed

Ardeshna, Nikesh I

2016-03-01

Coma is defined as a state of extreme unresponsiveness, in which a person exhibits no voluntary movement or behavior even to painful stimuli. The utilization of EEG for patients in coma has increased dramatically over the last few years. In fact, many institutions have set protocols for continuous EEG (cEEG) monitoring for patients in coma due to potential causes such as subarachnoid hemorrhage or cardiac arrest. Consequently, EEG plays an important role in diagnosis, managenent, and in some cases even prognosis of coma patients.

Definition study for temperature control in advanced protein crystal growth

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nyce, Thomas A.; Rosenberger, Franz; Sowers, Jennifer W.; Monaco, Lisa A.

1990-01-01

Some of the technical requirements for an expedient application of temperature control to advanced protein crystal growth activities are defined. Lysozome was used to study the effects of temperature ramping and temperature gradients for nucleation/dissolution and consecutive growth of sizable crystals and, to determine a prototype temperature program. The solubility study was conducted using equine serum albumin (ESA) which is an extremely stable, clinically important protein due to its capability to bind and transport many different small ions and molecules.

Pepper, chili (Capsicum annuum).

PubMed

Min, Jung; Shin, Sun Hee; Jeon, En Mi; Park, Jung Mi; Hyun, Ji Young; Harn, Chee Hark

2015-01-01

Pepper is a recalcitrant plant for Agrobacterium-mediated genetic transformation. Several obstacles to genetic transformation remain such as extremely low transformation rates; the choice of correct genotype is critical; and there is a high frequency of false positives due to direct shoot formation. Here, we report a useful protocol with a suitable selection method. The most important aspect of the pepper transformation protocol is selecting shoots growing from the callus, which is referred to as callus-mediated shoot formation. This protocol is a reproducible and reliable system for pepper transformation.

Changing precipitation extremes and flood risk over the conterminous U.S.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lettenmaier, D. P.

2017-12-01

On the basis of first principles, precipitation extremes should increase in a warming climate. Effectively, the atmospheric "heat engine" is expected to turn over more rapidly as the climate warms, due to increased water holding capacity of the atmosphere. Most climate models reflect this behavior, and project that precipitation extremes should increase, at roughly the Clausius-Clapyron rate. From a societal standpoint though, changing precipitation extremes in and of themselves aren't necessarily a concern - rather, the question of societal interest is "are and/or will flood extremes change". Flood extremes of course respond to precipitation extremes, but they are affected by a number of other factors, among them being the duration of precipitation relative to catchment size and channel features, storm orientation relative to catchment orientation, soil characteristics, and antecedent hydrologic conditions. Various studies have shown that over both the conterminous U.S. and globally, there have been slight increases in precipitation extremes (i.e., more than would be expected due to chance. On the other hand, evidence for increases in flooding are less pervasive. I review past work in this area, and suggest the nature of studies that might be conducted going forward to better understand the likely signature of changing precipitation extremes on flooding.

Reliability of the mangled extremity severity score in combat-related upper and lower extremity injuries.

PubMed

Ege, Tolga; Unlu, Aytekin; Tas, Huseyin; Bek, Dogan; Turkan, Selim; Cetinkaya, Aytac

2015-01-01

Decision of limb salvage or amputation is generally aided with several trauma scoring systems such as the mangled extremity severity score (MESS). However, the reliability of the injury scores in the settling of open fractures due to explosives and missiles is challenging. Mortality and morbidity of the extremity trauma due to firearms are generally associated with time delay in revascularization, injury mechanism, anatomy of the injured site, associated injuries, age and the environmental circumstance. The purpose of the retrospective study was to evaluate the extent of extremity injuries due to ballistic missiles and to detect the reliability of mangled extremity severity score (MESS) in both upper and lower extremities. Between 2004 and 2014, 139 Gustillo Anderson Type III open fractures of both the upper and lower extremities were enrolled in the study. Data for patient age, fire arm type, transporting time from the field to the hospital (and the method), injury severity scores, MESS scores, fracture types, amputation levels, bone fixation methods and postoperative infections and complications retrieved from the two level-2 trauma center's data base. Sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values of the MESS were calculated to detect the ability in deciding amputation in the mangled limb. Amputation was performed in 39 extremities and limb salvage attempted in 100 extremities. The mean followup time was 14.6 months (range 6-32 months). In the amputated group, the mean MESS scores for upper and lower extremity were 8.8 (range 6-11) and 9.24 (range 6-11), respectively. In the limb salvage group, the mean MESS scores for upper and lower extremities were 5.29 (range 4-7) and 5.19 (range 3-8), respectively. Sensitivity of MESS in upper and lower extremities were calculated as 80% and 79.4% and positive predictive values detected as 55.55% and 83.3%, respectively. Specificity of MESS score for upper and lower extremities was 84% and 86.6%; negative predictive values were calculated as 95.45% and 90.2%, respectively. MESS is not predictive in combat related extremity injuries especially if between a score of 6-8. Limb ischemia and presence or absence of shock can be used in initial decision-making for amputation.

Reliability of the mangled extremity severity score in combat-related upper and lower extremity injuries

PubMed Central

Ege, Tolga; Unlu, Aytekin; Tas, Huseyin; Bek, Dogan; Turkan, Selim; Cetinkaya, Aytac

2015-01-01

Background: Decision of limb salvage or amputation is generally aided with several trauma scoring systems such as the mangled extremity severity score (MESS). However, the reliability of the injury scores in the settling of open fractures due to explosives and missiles is challenging. Mortality and morbidity of the extremity trauma due to firearms are generally associated with time delay in revascularization, injury mechanism, anatomy of the injured site, associated injuries, age and the environmental circumstance. The purpose of the retrospective study was to evaluate the extent of extremity injuries due to ballistic missiles and to detect the reliability of mangled extremity severity score (MESS) in both upper and lower extremities. Materials and Methods: Between 2004 and 2014, 139 Gustillo Anderson Type III open fractures of both the upper and lower extremities were enrolled in the study. Data for patient age, fire arm type, transporting time from the field to the hospital (and the method), injury severity scores, MESS scores, fracture types, amputation levels, bone fixation methods and postoperative infections and complications retrieved from the two level-2 trauma center's data base. Sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values of the MESS were calculated to detect the ability in deciding amputation in the mangled limb. Results: Amputation was performed in 39 extremities and limb salvage attempted in 100 extremities. The mean followup time was 14.6 months (range 6–32 months). In the amputated group, the mean MESS scores for upper and lower extremity were 8.8 (range 6–11) and 9.24 (range 6–11), respectively. In the limb salvage group, the mean MESS scores for upper and lower extremities were 5.29 (range 4–7) and 5.19 (range 3–8), respectively. Sensitivity of MESS in upper and lower extremities were calculated as 80% and 79.4% and positive predictive values detected as 55.55% and 83.3%, respectively. Specificity of MESS score for upper and lower extremities was 84% and 86.6%; negative predictive values were calculated as 95.45% and 90.2%, respectively. Conclusion: MESS is not predictive in combat related extremity injuries especially if between a score of 6–8. Limb ischemia and presence or absence of shock can be used in initial decision-making for amputation. PMID:26806974

Causes of Glacier Melt Extremes in the Alps Since 1949

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thibert, E.; Dkengne Sielenou, P.; Vionnet, V.; Eckert, N.; Vincent, C.

2018-01-01

Recent record-breaking glacier melt values are attributable to peculiar extreme events and long-term warming trends that shift averages upward. Analyzing one of the world's longest mass balance series with extreme value statistics, we show that detrending melt anomalies makes it possible to disentangle these effects, leading to a fairer evaluation of the return period of melt extreme values such as 2003, and to characterize them by a more realistic bounded behavior. Using surface energy balance simulations, we show that three independent drivers control melt: global radiation, latent heat, and the amount of snow at the beginning of the melting season. Extremes are governed by large deviations in global radiation combined with sensible heat. Long-term trends are driven by the lengthening of melt duration due to earlier and longer-lasting melting of ice along with melt intensification caused by trends in long-wave irradiance and latent heat due to higher air moisture.

An influence of extremal edges on boundary extension.

PubMed

Hale, Ralph G; Brown, James M; McDunn, Benjamin A; Siddiqui, Aisha P

2015-08-01

Studies have shown that people consistently remember seeing more of a studied scene than was physically present (e.g., Intraub & Richardson Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, 15, 179-187, 1989). This scene memory error, known as boundary extension, has been suggested to occur due to an observer's failure to differentiate between the contributing sources of information, including the sensory input, amodal continuation beyond the view boundaries, and contextual associations with the main objects and depicted scene locations (Intraub, 2010). Here, "scenes" made of abstract shapes on random-dot backgrounds, previously shown to elicit boundary extension (McDunn, Siddiqui, & Brown Psychonomic Bulletin & Review, 21, 370-375, 2014), were compared with versions made with extremal edges (Palmer & Ghose Psychological Science, 19, 77-84, 2008) added to their borders, in order to examine how boundary extension is influenced when amodal continuation at the borders' view boundaries is manipulated in this way. Extremal edges were expected to reduce boundary extension as compared to the same scenes without them, because extremal edge boundaries explicitly indicate an image's end (i.e., they do not continue past the view boundary). A large and a small difference (16 % and 40 %) between the close and wide-angle views shown during the experiment were tested to examine the effects of both boundary extension and normalization with and without extremal edges. Images without extremal edges elicited typical boundary extension for the 16 % size change condition, whereas the 40 % condition showed signs of normalization. With extremal edges, a reduced amount of boundary extension occurred for the 16 % condition, and only normalization was found for the 40 % condition. Our findings support and highlight the importance of amodal continuation at the view boundaries as a component of boundary extension.

Optimizing Illumina next-generation sequencing library preparation for extremely AT-biased genomes.

PubMed

Oyola, Samuel O; Otto, Thomas D; Gu, Yong; Maslen, Gareth; Manske, Magnus; Campino, Susana; Turner, Daniel J; Macinnis, Bronwyn; Kwiatkowski, Dominic P; Swerdlow, Harold P; Quail, Michael A

2012-01-03

Massively parallel sequencing technology is revolutionizing approaches to genomic and genetic research. Since its advent, the scale and efficiency of Next-Generation Sequencing (NGS) has rapidly improved. In spite of this success, sequencing genomes or genomic regions with extremely biased base composition is still a great challenge to the currently available NGS platforms. The genomes of some important pathogenic organisms like Plasmodium falciparum (high AT content) and Mycobacterium tuberculosis (high GC content) display extremes of base composition. The standard library preparation procedures that employ PCR amplification have been shown to cause uneven read coverage particularly across AT and GC rich regions, leading to problems in genome assembly and variation analyses. Alternative library-preparation approaches that omit PCR amplification require large quantities of starting material and hence are not suitable for small amounts of DNA/RNA such as those from clinical isolates. We have developed and optimized library-preparation procedures suitable for low quantity starting material and tolerant to extremely high AT content sequences. We have used our optimized conditions in parallel with standard methods to prepare Illumina sequencing libraries from a non-clinical and a clinical isolate (containing ~53% host contamination). By analyzing and comparing the quality of sequence data generated, we show that our optimized conditions that involve a PCR additive (TMAC), produces amplified libraries with improved coverage of extremely AT-rich regions and reduced bias toward GC neutral templates. We have developed a robust and optimized Next-Generation Sequencing library amplification method suitable for extremely AT-rich genomes. The new amplification conditions significantly reduce bias and retain the complexity of either extremes of base composition. This development will greatly benefit sequencing clinical samples that often require amplification due to low mass of DNA starting material.

Increased Spatial Variability and Intensification of Extreme Monsoon Rainfall due to Urbanization.

PubMed

Paul, Supantha; Ghosh, Subimal; Mathew, Micky; Devanand, Anjana; Karmakar, Subhankar; Niyogi, Dev

2018-03-02

While satellite data provides a strong robust signature of urban feedback on extreme precipitation; urbanization signal is often not so prominent with station level data. To investigate this, we select the case study of Mumbai, India and perform a high resolution (1 km) numerical study with Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model for eight extreme rainfall days during 2014-2015. The WRF model is coupled with two different urban schemes, the Single Layer Urban Canopy Model (WRF-SUCM), Multi-Layer Urban Canopy Model (WRF-MUCM). The differences between the WRF-MUCM and WRF-SUCM indicate the importance of the structure and characteristics of urban canopy on modifications in precipitation. The WRF-MUCM simulations resemble the observed distributed rainfall. WRF-MUCM also produces intensified rainfall as compared to the WRF-SUCM and WRF-NoUCM (without UCM). The intensification in rainfall is however prominent at few pockets of urban regions, that is seen in increased spatial variability. We find that the correlation of precipitation across stations within the city falls below statistical significance at a distance greater than 10 km. Urban signature on extreme precipitation will be reflected on station rainfall only when the stations are located inside the urban pockets having intensified precipitation, which needs to be considered in future analysis.

Tick exposure and extreme climate events impact survival and threaten the persistence of a long-lived lizard.

PubMed

Jones, Alice R; Bull, C Michael; Brook, Barry W; Wells, Konstans; Pollock, Kenneth H; Fordham, Damien A

2016-03-01

Assessing the impacts of multiple, often synergistic, stressors on the population dynamics of long-lived species is becoming increasingly important due to recent and future global change. Tiliqua rugosa (sleepy lizard) is a long-lived skink (>30 years) that is adapted to survive in semi-arid environments with varying levels of parasite exposure and highly seasonal food availability. We used an exhaustive database of 30 years of capture-mark-recapture records to quantify the impacts of both parasite exposure and environmental conditions on the lizard's survival rates and long-term population dynamics. Lizard abundance was relatively stable throughout the study period; however, there were changing patterns in adult and juvenile apparent survival rates, driven by spatial and temporal variation in levels of tick exposure and temporal variation in environmental conditions. Extreme weather events during the winter and spring seasons were identified as important environmental drivers of survival. Climate models predict a dramatic increase in the frequency of extreme hot and dry winter and spring seasons in our South Australian study region; from a contemporary probability of 0.17 up to 0.47-0.83 in 2080 depending on the emissions scenario. Our stochastic population model projections showed that these future climatic conditions will induce a decline in the abundance of this long-lived reptile of up to 67% within 30 years from 2080, under worst case scenario modelling. The results have broad implications for future work investigating the drivers of population dynamics and persistence. We highlight the importance of long-term data sets and accounting for synergistic impacts between multiple stressors. We show that predicted increases in the frequency of extreme climate events have the potential to considerably and negatively influence a long-lived species, which might previously have been assumed to be resilient to environmental perturbations. © 2015 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2015 British Ecological Society.

Why do people buy dogs with potential welfare problems related to extreme conformation and inherited disease? A representative study of Danish owners of four small dog breeds

PubMed Central

Kondrup, S. V.; Bennett, P. C.; Forkman, B.; Meyer, I; Proschowsky, H. F.; Serpell, J. A.; Lund, T. B.

2017-01-01

A number of dog breeds suffer from welfare problems due to extreme phenotypes and high levels of inherited diseases but the popularity of such breeds is not declining. Using a survey of owners of two popular breeds with extreme physical features (French Bulldog and Chihuahua), one with a high load of inherited diseases not directly related to conformation (Cavalier King Charles Spaniel), and one representing the same size range but without extreme conformation and with the same level of disease as the overall dog population (Cairn Terrier), we investigated this seeming paradox. We examined planning and motivational factors behind acquisition of the dogs, and whether levels of experienced health and behavior problems were associated with the quality of the owner-dog relationship and the intention to re-procure a dog of the same breed. Owners of each of the four breeds (750/breed) were randomly drawn from a nationwide Danish dog registry and invited to participate. Of these, 911 responded, giving a final sample of 846. There were clear differences between owners of the four breeds with respect to degree of planning prior to purchase, with owners of Chihuahuas exhibiting less. Motivations behind choice of dog were also different. Health and other breed attributes were more important to owners of Cairn Terriers, whereas the dog’s personality was reported to be more important for owners of French Bulldogs and Cavalier King Charles Spaniels but less important for Chihuahua owners. Higher levels of health and behavior problems were positively associated with a closer owner-dog relationship for owners of Cavalier King Charles Spaniels and Chihuahuas but, for owners of French Bulldogs, high levels of problems were negatively associated with an intention to procure the same breed again. In light of these findings, it appears less paradoxical that people continue to buy dogs with welfare problems. PMID:28234931

Why do people buy dogs with potential welfare problems related to extreme conformation and inherited disease? A representative study of Danish owners of four small dog breeds.

PubMed

Sandøe, P; Kondrup, S V; Bennett, P C; Forkman, B; Meyer, I; Proschowsky, H F; Serpell, J A; Lund, T B

2017-01-01

A number of dog breeds suffer from welfare problems due to extreme phenotypes and high levels of inherited diseases but the popularity of such breeds is not declining. Using a survey of owners of two popular breeds with extreme physical features (French Bulldog and Chihuahua), one with a high load of inherited diseases not directly related to conformation (Cavalier King Charles Spaniel), and one representing the same size range but without extreme conformation and with the same level of disease as the overall dog population (Cairn Terrier), we investigated this seeming paradox. We examined planning and motivational factors behind acquisition of the dogs, and whether levels of experienced health and behavior problems were associated with the quality of the owner-dog relationship and the intention to re-procure a dog of the same breed. Owners of each of the four breeds (750/breed) were randomly drawn from a nationwide Danish dog registry and invited to participate. Of these, 911 responded, giving a final sample of 846. There were clear differences between owners of the four breeds with respect to degree of planning prior to purchase, with owners of Chihuahuas exhibiting less. Motivations behind choice of dog were also different. Health and other breed attributes were more important to owners of Cairn Terriers, whereas the dog's personality was reported to be more important for owners of French Bulldogs and Cavalier King Charles Spaniels but less important for Chihuahua owners. Higher levels of health and behavior problems were positively associated with a closer owner-dog relationship for owners of Cavalier King Charles Spaniels and Chihuahuas but, for owners of French Bulldogs, high levels of problems were negatively associated with an intention to procure the same breed again. In light of these findings, it appears less paradoxical that people continue to buy dogs with welfare problems.

The role of the tropical West Pacific in the extreme northern hemisphere winter of 2013/14

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Watson, Peter; Weisheimer, Antje; Knight, Jeff; Palmer, Tim

2016-04-01

In the 2013/14 winter, the eastern USA was exceptionally cold, the Bering Strait region was exceptionally warm, California was in the midst of drought and the UK suffered severe flooding. It has been suggested that elevated SSTs in the tropical West Pacific (TWPAC) were partly to blame due to their producing a Rossby wavetrain that propagated into the extratropics. We find that seasonal forecasts with the tropical atmosphere relaxed towards a reanalysis give 2013/14 winter-mean anomalies with strong similarities to those observed in the Northern Hemisphere, indicating that low-latitude anomalies had a role in the development of the extremes. Relaxing just the TWPAC produces a strong wavetrain over the North Pacific and North America in January, but not in the winter-mean. This suggests that anomalies in this region alone had a large influence, but cannot explain the extremes through the whole winter. We also examine the response to applying the observed TWPAC SST anomalies in two atmospheric general circulation models. We find that this does produce winter-mean anomalies in the North Pacific and North America resembling those observed, but that the tropical forcing of Rossby waves due to the applied SST anomalies appears stronger than that in reanalysis, except in January. Therefore both experiments indicate that the TWPAC influence was important, but the true strength of the TWPAC influence is uncertain. None of the experiments indicate a strong systematic impact of the TWPAC anomalies on Europe.

The Total Ozone Series of Arosa: History, Homogenization and new results using statistical extreme value theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Staehelin, J.; Rieder, H. E.; Maeder, J. A.; Ribatet, M.; Davison, A. C.; Stübi, R.

2009-04-01

Atmospheric ozone protects the biota living at the Earth's surface from harmful solar UV-B and UV-C radiation. The global ozone shield is expected to gradually recover from the anthropogenic disturbance of ozone depleting substances (ODS) in the coming decades. The stratospheric ozone layer at extratropics might significantly increase above the thickness of the chemically undisturbed atmosphere which might enhance ozone concentrations at the tropopause altitude where ozone is an important greenhouse gas. At Arosa, a resort village in the Swiss Alps, total ozone measurements started in 1926 leading to the longest total ozone series of the world. One Fery spectrograph and seven Dobson spectrophotometers were operated at Arosa and the method used to homogenize the series will be presented. Due to its unique length the series allows studying total ozone in the chemically undisturbed as well as in the ODS loaded stratosphere. The series is particularly valuable to study natural variability in the period prior to 1970, when ODS started to affect stratospheric ozone. Concepts developed by extreme value statistics allow objective definitions of "ozone extreme high" and "ozone extreme low" values by fitting the (daily mean) time series using the Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD). Extreme high ozone events can be attributed to effects of ElNino and/or NAO, whereas in the chemically disturbed stratosphere high frequencies of extreme low total ozone values simultaneously occur with periods of strong polar ozone depletion (identified by statistical modeling with Equivalent Stratospheric Chlorine times Volume of Stratospheric Polar Clouds) and volcanic eruptions (such as El Chichon and Pinatubo).

Defining Extreme Events: A Cross-Disciplinary Review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McPhillips, Lauren E.; Chang, Heejun; Chester, Mikhail V.; Depietri, Yaella; Friedman, Erin; Grimm, Nancy B.; Kominoski, John S.; McPhearson, Timon; Méndez-Lázaro, Pablo; Rosi, Emma J.; Shafiei Shiva, Javad

2018-03-01

Extreme events are of interest worldwide given their potential for substantial impacts on social, ecological, and technical systems. Many climate-related extreme events are increasing in frequency and/or magnitude due to anthropogenic climate change, and there is increased potential for impacts due to the location of urbanization and the expansion of urban centers and infrastructures. Many disciplines are engaged in research and management of these events. However, a lack of coherence exists in what constitutes and defines an extreme event across these fields, which impedes our ability to holistically understand and manage these events. Here, we review 10 years of academic literature and use text analysis to elucidate how six major disciplines—climatology, earth sciences, ecology, engineering, hydrology, and social sciences—define and communicate extreme events. Our results highlight critical disciplinary differences in the language used to communicate extreme events. Additionally, we found a wide range in definitions and thresholds, with more than half of examined papers not providing an explicit definition, and disagreement over whether impacts are included in the definition. We urge distinction between extreme events and their impacts, so that we can better assess when responses to extreme events have actually enhanced resilience. Additionally, we suggest that all researchers and managers of extreme events be more explicit in their definition of such events as well as be more cognizant of how they are communicating extreme events. We believe clearer and more consistent definitions and communication can support transdisciplinary understanding and management of extreme events.

Extreme weather exposure identification for road networks - a comparative assessment of statistical methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schlögl, Matthias; Laaha, Gregor

2017-04-01

The assessment of road infrastructure exposure to extreme weather events is of major importance for scientists and practitioners alike. In this study, we compare the different extreme value approaches and fitting methods with respect to their value for assessing the exposure of transport networks to extreme precipitation and temperature impacts. Based on an Austrian data set from 25 meteorological stations representing diverse meteorological conditions, we assess the added value of partial duration series (PDS) over the standardly used annual maxima series (AMS) in order to give recommendations for performing extreme value statistics of meteorological hazards. Results show the merits of the robust L-moment estimation, which yielded better results than maximum likelihood estimation in 62 % of all cases. At the same time, results question the general assumption of the threshold excess approach (employing PDS) being superior to the block maxima approach (employing AMS) due to information gain. For low return periods (non-extreme events) the PDS approach tends to overestimate return levels as compared to the AMS approach, whereas an opposite behavior was found for high return levels (extreme events). In extreme cases, an inappropriate threshold was shown to lead to considerable biases that may outperform the possible gain of information from including additional extreme events by far. This effect was visible from neither the square-root criterion nor standardly used graphical diagnosis (mean residual life plot) but rather from a direct comparison of AMS and PDS in combined quantile plots. We therefore recommend performing AMS and PDS approaches simultaneously in order to select the best-suited approach. This will make the analyses more robust, not only in cases where threshold selection and dependency introduces biases to the PDS approach but also in cases where the AMS contains non-extreme events that may introduce similar biases. For assessing the performance of extreme events we recommend the use of conditional performance measures that focus on rare events only in addition to standardly used unconditional indicators. The findings of the study directly address road and traffic management but can be transferred to a range of other environmental variables including meteorological and hydrological quantities.

Estimation of methane flux from fish ponds of southwestern Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, K. H.; Hung, C. C.

2016-02-01

CH4 is one of the trace gases in the atmosphere, but it is an important greenhouse gas, with 15 times more effective than CO2 absorbing infrared radiation capability. To date, scientists generally consider that the methane production is mainly from livestock farming, such as pigs and cattle, but the source of methane emission from aquaculture ponds have been ignored. Due to overfishing in the ocean, aquaculture fishery in coastal zone has been increasing globally and the methane emission from those fish ponds has seldom been studied. To better evaluate the emission of methane from fish ponds, we measured methane concentrations in both atmosphere and fish ponds of the southwestern Taiwan from March to September in 2015. Besides an extremely high flux (829 mmol/m2/d), the fluxes of methane in different fish ponds ranged from 19 to 725 μmol/m2/d, which is lower than the global mean value of lakes (2.7 mmol/m2/d). The low methane fluxes during sampling period may be due to non-harvest season, because when the harvest season comes, the higher trophic status will appear, and there will be more organic matter supply for methanogenesis. Currently, we have no idea where the extremely high methane flux comes from. We will try to measure C-isotopes to understand the sources of highest methane fluxes. Overall, the preliminary results provide substantive evidence that methane emission from aquaculture ponds could be an important source and it needs long-term investigations.

Importance of anthropogenic climate impact, sampling error and urban development in sewer system design.

PubMed

Egger, C; Maurer, M

2015-04-15

Urban drainage design relying on observed precipitation series neglects the uncertainties associated with current and indeed future climate variability. Urban drainage design is further affected by the large stochastic variability of precipitation extremes and sampling errors arising from the short observation periods of extreme precipitation. Stochastic downscaling addresses anthropogenic climate impact by allowing relevant precipitation characteristics to be derived from local observations and an ensemble of climate models. This multi-climate model approach seeks to reflect the uncertainties in the data due to structural errors of the climate models. An ensemble of outcomes from stochastic downscaling allows for addressing the sampling uncertainty. These uncertainties are clearly reflected in the precipitation-runoff predictions of three urban drainage systems. They were mostly due to the sampling uncertainty. The contribution of climate model uncertainty was found to be of minor importance. Under the applied greenhouse gas emission scenario (A1B) and within the period 2036-2065, the potential for urban flooding in our Swiss case study is slightly reduced on average compared to the reference period 1981-2010. Scenario planning was applied to consider urban development associated with future socio-economic factors affecting urban drainage. The impact of scenario uncertainty was to a large extent found to be case-specific, thus emphasizing the need for scenario planning in every individual case. The results represent a valuable basis for discussions of new drainage design standards aiming specifically to include considerations of uncertainty. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Physical measurements of breaking wave impact on a floating wave energy converter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hann, Martyn R.; Greaves, Deborah M.; Raby, Alison

2013-04-01

Marine energy converter must both efficiently extract energy in small to moderate seas and also successfully survive storms and potential collisions. Extreme loads on devices are therefore an important consideration in their design process. X-MED is a SuperGen UKCMER project and is a collaboration between the Universities of Manchester, Edinburgh and Plymouth and the Scottish Association for Marine Sciences. Its objective is to extend the knowledge of extreme loads due to waves, currents, flotsam and mammal impacts. Plymouth Universities contribution to the X-MED project involves measuring the loading and response of a taut moored floating body due to steep and breaking wave impacts, in both long crested and directional sea states. These measurements are then to be reproduced in STAR-CCM+, a commercial volume of fluid CFD solver, so as to develop techniques to predict the wave loading on wave energy converters. The measurements presented here were conducted in Plymouth Universities newly opened COAST laboratories 35m long, 15.5m wide and 3m deep ocean basin. A 0.5m diameter taut moored hemispherical buoy was used to represent a floating wave energy device or support structure. The changes in the buoys 6 degree of freedom motion and mooring loads are presented due to focused breaking wave impacts, with the breaking point of the wave changed relative to the buoy.

The Use of Radar-Based Products for Deriving Extreme Rainfall Frequencies Using Regional Frequency Analysis with Application in South Louisiana

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eldardiry, H. A.; Habib, E. H.

2014-12-01

Radar-based technologies have made spatially and temporally distributed quantitative precipitation estimates (QPE) available in an operational environmental compared to the raingauges. The floods identified through flash flood monitoring and prediction systems are subject to at least three sources of uncertainties: (a) those related to rainfall estimation errors, (b) those due to streamflow prediction errors due to model structural issues, and (c) those due to errors in defining a flood event. The current study focuses on the first source of uncertainty and its effect on deriving important climatological characteristics of extreme rainfall statistics. Examples of such characteristics are rainfall amounts with certain Average Recurrence Intervals (ARI) or Annual Exceedance Probability (AEP), which are highly valuable for hydrologic and civil engineering design purposes. Gauge-based precipitation frequencies estimates (PFE) have been maturely developed and widely used over the last several decades. More recently, there has been a growing interest by the research community to explore the use of radar-based rainfall products for developing PFE and understand the associated uncertainties. This study will use radar-based multi-sensor precipitation estimates (MPE) for 11 years to derive PFE's corresponding to various return periods over a spatial domain that covers the state of Louisiana in southern USA. The PFE estimation approach used in this study is based on fitting generalized extreme value distribution to hydrologic extreme rainfall data based on annual maximum series (AMS). Some of the estimation problems that may arise from fitting GEV distributions at each radar pixel is the large variance and seriously biased quantile estimators. Hence, a regional frequency analysis approach (RFA) is applied. The RFA involves the use of data from different pixels surrounding each pixel within a defined homogenous region. In this study, region of influence approach along with the index flood technique are used in the RFA. A bootstrap technique procedure is carried out to account for the uncertainty in the distribution parameters to construct 90% confidence intervals (i.e., 5% and 95% confidence limits) on AMS-based precipitation frequency curves.

Super Clausius-Clapeyron scaling of extreme hourly precipitation and its relation to large-scale atmospheric conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lenderink, Geert; Barbero, Renaud; Loriaux, Jessica; Fowler, Hayley

2017-04-01

Present-day precipitation-temperature scaling relations indicate that hourly precipitation extremes may have a response to warming exceeding the Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) relation; for The Netherlands the dependency on surface dew point temperature follows two times the CC relation corresponding to 14 % per degree. Our hypothesis - as supported by a simple physical argument presented here - is that this 2CC behaviour arises from the physics of convective clouds. So, we think that this response is due to local feedbacks related to the convective activity, while other large scale atmospheric forcing conditions remain similar except for the higher temperature (approximately uniform warming with height) and absolute humidity (corresponding to the assumption of unchanged relative humidity). To test this hypothesis, we analysed the large-scale atmospheric conditions accompanying summertime afternoon precipitation events using surface observations combined with a regional re-analysis for the data in The Netherlands. Events are precipitation measurements clustered in time and space derived from approximately 30 automatic weather stations. The hourly peak intensities of these events again reveal a 2CC scaling with the surface dew point temperature. The temperature excess of moist updrafts initialized at the surface and the maximum cloud depth are clear functions of surface dew point temperature, confirming the key role of surface humidity on convective activity. Almost no differences in relative humidity and the dry temperature lapse rate were found across the dew point temperature range, supporting our theory that 2CC scaling is mainly due to the response of convection to increases in near surface humidity, while other atmospheric conditions remain similar. Additionally, hourly precipitation extremes are on average accompanied by substantial large-scale upward motions and therefore large-scale moisture convergence, which appears to accelerate with surface dew point. This increase in large-scale moisture convergence appears to be consequence of latent heat release due to the convective activity as estimated from the quasi-geostrophic omega equation. Consequently, most hourly extremes occur in precipitation events with considerable spatial extent. Importantly, this event size appears to increase rapidly at the highest dew point temperature range, suggesting potentially strong impacts of climatic warming.

Deep Vein Thrombosis in Patients with Severe Motor and Intellectual Disabilities

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Most patients with severe motor and intellectual disabilities (SMID) have restricted mobility capability and have been bedridden for long periods because of paralysis of the extremities caused by abnormal muscular tonicity due to cerebral palsy and developmental disabilities, and such patients are associated with a high risk for the complications of deep vein thrombosis (DVT). Here, we report 8 patients (34.8%) with DVT among 23 patients with SMID during prolonged bed rest. However, we did not detect thrombosis in the soleal veins, finding it mostly in the superficial femoral and common femoral veins. Regarding laboratory data for the coagulation system, there were no cases with D-dimer above 5 µg/ml. Concerning sudden death in patients with SMID, we have to be very careful of the possibility of pulmonary thromboembolism due to DVT. Therefore, we should consider the particularities of an underdeveloped vascular system from underlying diseases for the evaluation of DVT in patients with SMID. A detailed study of DVT as a vascular complication is very important for smooth medical care of SMID and compression Doppler ultrasonography of the lower extremities, as noninvasive examination, is very helpful. (*English translation of Jpn J Phlebol 2012; 23: 17-24) PMID:24386017

An unusual etiology in cold injury: Liquefied petroleum gas.

PubMed

Kapı, Emin; Bozkurt, Mehmet; Taylan Filinte, Gaye; Kuvat, Samet Vasfi; Alioğlu, Celal

2017-05-01

Cold injury is a condition that causes reversible and irreversible damage when tissues are exposed to cold. This injury occurs due to various etiologies, and the most commonly observed ones include contact with liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) used in households, vehicles, and industry. LPG is a type of gas stored in liquid state under high pressure within cylinders. LPG contains a mixture of propane and butane gases. Direct contact of these gases with the tissues has the potential to cause metabolic, toxic, and respiratory damage. In this study, we present the cases of four patients with cold injury in the face and upper extremity caused by a pressurized jet stream of liquid gas that escaped out of the valves of the LPG cylinders. The patients had bullous lesions in the upper extremities and the face and second- and third-degree cold injuries with fibrotic and necrotic areas. The superficial defects secondarily healed with minimal scarring, while the necrotic finger had to be amputated. Cold injury on the skin caused by high-pressure jet streams of liquid gas as in our study is a rare occurrence. Our patients are important cases due to the rare etiology of cold injury.

Mining the LIPG Allelic Spectrum Reveals the Contribution of Rare and Common Regulatory Variants to HDL Cholesterol

PubMed Central

Raghavan, Avanthi; Neeli, Hemanth; Jin, Weijun; Badellino, Karen O.; Demissie, Serkalem; Manning, Alisa K.; DerOhannessian, Stephanie L.; Wolfe, Megan L.; Cupples, L. Adrienne; Li, Mingyao; Kathiresan, Sekar; Rader, Daniel J.

2011-01-01

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have successfully identified loci associated with quantitative traits, such as blood lipids. Deep resequencing studies are being utilized to catalogue the allelic spectrum at GWAS loci. The goal of these studies is to identify causative variants and missing heritability, including heritability due to low frequency and rare alleles with large phenotypic impact. Whereas rare variant efforts have primarily focused on nonsynonymous coding variants, we hypothesized that noncoding variants in these loci are also functionally important. Using the HDL-C gene LIPG as an example, we explored the effect of regulatory variants identified through resequencing of subjects at HDL-C extremes on gene expression, protein levels, and phenotype. Resequencing a portion of the LIPG promoter and 5′ UTR in human subjects with extreme HDL-C, we identified several rare variants in individuals from both extremes. Luciferase reporter assays were used to measure the effect of these rare variants on LIPG expression. Variants conferring opposing effects on gene expression were enriched in opposite extremes of the phenotypic distribution. Minor alleles of a common regulatory haplotype and noncoding GWAS SNPs were associated with reduced plasma levels of the LIPG gene product endothelial lipase (EL), consistent with its role in HDL-C catabolism. Additionally, we found that a common nonfunctional coding variant associated with HDL-C (rs2000813) is in linkage disequilibrium with a 5′ UTR variant (rs34474737) that decreases LIPG promoter activity. We attribute the gene regulatory role of rs34474737 to the observed association of the coding variant with plasma EL levels and HDL-C. Taken together, the findings show that both rare and common noncoding regulatory variants are important contributors to the allelic spectrum in complex trait loci. PMID:22174694

Nitrogen accumulation and partitioning in a High Arctic tundra ecosystem from extreme atmospheric N deposition events.

PubMed

Choudhary, Sonal; Blaud, Aimeric; Osborn, A Mark; Press, Malcolm C; Phoenix, Gareth K

2016-06-01

Arctic ecosystems are threatened by pollution from recently detected extreme atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition events in which up to 90% of the annual N deposition can occur in just a few days. We undertook the first assessment of the fate of N from extreme deposition in High Arctic tundra and are presenting the results from the whole ecosystem (15)N labelling experiment. In 2010, we simulated N depositions at rates of 0, 0.04, 0.4 and 1.2 g Nm(-2)yr(-1), applied as (15)NH4(15)NO3 in Svalbard (79(°)N), during the summer. Separate applications of (15)NO3(-) and (15)NH4(+) were also made to determine the importance of N form in their retention. More than 95% of the total (15)N applied was recovered after one growing season (~90% after two), demonstrating a considerable capacity of Arctic tundra to retain N from these deposition events. Important sinks for the deposited N, regardless of its application rate or form, were non-vascular plants>vascular plants>organic soil>litter>mineral soil, suggesting that non-vascular plants could be the primary component of this ecosystem to undergo measurable changes due to N enrichment from extreme deposition events. Substantial retention of N by soil microbial biomass (70% and 39% of (15)N in organic and mineral horizon, respectively) during the initial partitioning demonstrated their capacity to act as effective buffers for N leaching. Between the two N forms, vascular plants (Salix polaris) in particular showed difference in their N recovery, incorporating four times greater (15)NO3(-) than (15)NH4(+), suggesting deposition rich in nitrate will impact them more. Overall, these findings show that despite the deposition rates being extreme in statistical terms, biologically they do not exceed the capacity of tundra to sequester pollutant N during the growing season. Therefore, current and future extreme events may represent a major source of eutrophication. Crown Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ghosh, Subimal; Das, Debasish; Kao, Shih-Chieh

Recent studies disagree on how rainfall extremes over India have changed in space and time over the past half century, as well as on whether the changes observed are due to global warming or regional urbanization. Although a uniform and consistent decrease in moderate rainfall has been reported, a lack of agreement about trends in heavy rainfall may be due in part to differences in the characterization and spatial averaging of extremes. Here we use extreme value theory to examine trends in Indian rainfall over the past half century in the context of long-term, low-frequency variability.We show that when generalizedmore » extreme value theory is applied to annual maximum rainfall over India, no statistically significant spatially uniform trends are observed, in agreement with previous studies using different approaches. Furthermore, our space time regression analysis of the return levels points to increasing spatial variability of rainfall extremes over India. Our findings highlight the need for systematic examination of global versus regional drivers of trends in Indian rainfall extremes, and may help to inform flood hazard preparedness and water resource management in the region.« less

Life goals of people with disabilities due to neurological disorders.

PubMed

Sivaraman Nair, K P; Wade, Derick T

2003-08-01

To identify the life goals of people with long-term neurological disabilities and to correlate them with measures of disability. Cross-sectional descriptive study. Centre for continuing disability management Patients with static or progressive neurological disorders. Survey using questionnaires and disability scales. Life goals were identified with a life goals questionnaire. Subjects were also assessed using the Barthel Index, Rivermead Extended Activities of Daily Living Index, Rivermead Mobility Index, Short Orientation Memory Concentration test and Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale. Ninety-three subjects participated in the study. The frequency with which goals were chosen as extremely important was: family 64; personal care 59; residential arrangements 58; partner 53; social contacts 30; financial status 29; leisure 26; religion 22; and work 19. Positive correlation was noted between stated importance of: personal care and independence in ADL; work and independence; partner and cognitive ability; religion and age; and financial status and anxiety. There was negative correlation between grades of personal care and depression, work and age, residential arrangements and RMI, and social contact and anxiety and depression. Depressed patients rated fewer goals as being of extreme importance. People with disabilities attach great significance to relationships and personal care. Grades of life goals correlated with measures of disability, cognition and emotion.

Deflagration-to-detonation characteristics of a laser exploding bridge detonator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Welle, E. J.; Fleming, K. J.; Marley, S. K.

2006-08-01

Evaluation of laser initiated explosive trains has been an area of extreme interest due to the safety benefits of these systems relative to traditional electro-explosive devices. A particularly important difference is these devices are inherently less electro-static discharge (ESD) sensitive relative to traditional explosive devices due to the isolation of electrical power and associated materials from the explosive interface. This paper will report work conducted at Sandia National Laboratories' Explosive Components Facility, which evaluated the initiation and deflagration-to-detonation characteristics of a Laser Driven Exploding Bridgewire detonator. This paper will report and discuss characteristics of Laser Exploding Bridgewire devices loaded with hexanitrohexaazaisowurtzitane (CL-20) and tetraammine-cis-bis-(5-nitro-2H-tetrazolato-N2) cobalt (III) perchlorate (BNCP).

Plasma-Induced Nonvolatile Resistive Switching with Extremely Low SET Voltage in TiOxFy with AgF Nanoparticles.

PubMed

Sun, Xiangyu; Wu, Chuangui; Shuai, Yao; Pan, Xinqiang; Luo, Wenbo; You, Tiangui; Bogusz, Agnieszka; Du, Nan; Li, Yanrong; Schmidt, Heidemarie

2016-12-07

Low power consumption is crucial for the application of resistive random access memory. In this work, we present the bipolar resistive switching in an Ag/TiO x F y /Ti/Pt stack with extremely low switch-on voltage of 0.07 V. Operating current as low as 10 nA was also obtained by conductive atomic force microscopy. The highly defective TiO x F y layer was fabricated by plasma treatment using helium, oxygen, and carbon tetrafluoride orderly. During the electroforming process, AgF nanoparticles were formed due to the diffusion of Ag + which reacted with the adsorbed F - in the TiO x F y layer. These nanoparticles are of great importance to resistive switching performance because they are believed to be conductive phases and become part of the conducting path when the sample is switched to a low-resistance state.

Rainfall variability and extremes over southern Africa: assessment of a climate model to reproduce daily extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, C.; Kniveton, D.; Layberry, R.

2009-04-01

It is increasingly accepted that that any possible climate change will not only have an influence on mean climate but may also significantly alter climatic variability. A change in the distribution and magnitude of extreme rainfall events (associated with changing variability), such as droughts or flooding, may have a far greater impact on human and natural systems than a changing mean. This issue is of particular importance for environmentally vulnerable regions such as southern Africa. The subcontinent is considered especially vulnerable to and ill-equipped (in terms of adaptation) for extreme events, due to a number of factors including extensive poverty, famine, disease and political instability. Rainfall variability and the identification of rainfall extremes is a function of scale, so high spatial and temporal resolution data are preferred to identify extreme events and accurately predict future variability. The majority of previous climate model verification studies have compared model output with observational data at monthly timescales. In this research, the assessment of ability of a state of the art climate model to simulate climate at daily timescales is carried out using satellite derived rainfall data from the Microwave Infra-Red Algorithm (MIRA). This dataset covers the period from 1993-2002 and the whole of southern Africa at a spatial resolution of 0.1 degree longitude/latitude. The ability of a climate model to simulate current climate provides some indication of how much confidence can be applied to its future predictions. In this paper, simulations of current climate from the UK Meteorological Office Hadley Centre's climate model, in both regional and global mode, are firstly compared to the MIRA dataset at daily timescales. This concentrates primarily on the ability of the model to simulate the spatial and temporal patterns of rainfall variability over southern Africa. Secondly, the ability of the model to reproduce daily rainfall extremes will be assessed, again by a comparison with extremes from the MIRA dataset.

Ultrasonographic identification of the anatomical landmarks that define cervical lymph nodes spaces.

PubMed

Lenghel, Lavinia Manuela; Baciuţ, Grigore; Botar-Jid, Carolina; Vasilescu, Dan; Bojan, Anca; Dudea, Sorin M

2013-03-01

The localization of cervical lymph nodes is extremely important in practice for the positive and differential diagnosis as well as the staging of cervical lymphadenopathies. Ultrasonography represents the first line imaging method in the diagnosis of cervical lymphadenopathies due to its excellent resolution and high diagnosis accuracy. The present paper aims to illustrate the ultrasonographic identification of the anatomical landmarks used for the definition of cervical lymphatic spaces. The application of standardized views allows a delineation of clear anatomical landmarks and an accurate localization of the cervical lymph nodes.

[Ebola virus disease].

PubMed

Nazimek, Katarzyna; Bociaga-Jasik, Monika; Bryniarski, Krzysztof; Gałas, Aleksander; Garlicki, Aleksander; Gawda, Anna; Gawlik, Grzegorz; Gil, Krzysztof; Kosz-Vnenchak, Magdalena; Mrozek-Budzyn, Dorota; Olszanecki, Rafał; Piatek, Anna; Zawilińska, Barbara; Marcinkiewicz, Janusz

2014-01-01

Ebola is one of the most virulent zoonotic RNA viruses causing in humans haemorrhagic fever with fatality ratio reaching 90%. During the outbreak of 2014 the number of deaths exceeded 8.000. The "imported" cases reported in Western Europe and USA highlighted the extreme risk of Ebola virus spreading outside the African countries. Thus, haemorrhagic fever outbreak is an international epidemiological problem, also due to the lack of approved prevention and therapeutic strategies. The editorial review article briefly summarizes current knowledge on Ebola virus disease epidemiology, etiology, pathogenesis, clinical presentation, diagnosis as well as possible prevention and treatment.

Flexibility of Bricard's linkages and other structures via resultants and computer algebra.

PubMed

Lewis, Robert H; Coutsias, Evangelos A

2016-07-01

Flexibility of structures is extremely important for chemistry and robotics. Following our earlier work, we study flexibility using polynomial equations, resultants, and a symbolic algorithm of our creation that analyzes the resultant. We show that the software solves a classic arrangement of quadrilaterals in the plane due to Bricard. We fill in several gaps in Bricard's work and discover new flexible arrangements that he was apparently unaware of. This provides strong evidence for the maturity of the software, and is a wonderful example of mathematical discovery via computer assisted experiment.

Thermophysical ESEM and TEM Characterization of Carbon Fibers CTE, Spectroscopy and Roughness Studies at High Temperatures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ochoa, Ozden O.

2004-01-01

Accurate determination of the transverse properties of carbon fibers is important for assessment and prediction of local material as well as global structural response of composite components. However the measurements are extremely difficult due to the very small diameters of the fibers (few microns only) and must be conducted within a microscope. In this work, environmental scanning electron microscope (ESEM) and transmission electron microscope (TEM) are used to determine the transverse coefficient of thermal expansion of different carbon fibers as a function of temperature.

A Unique Sample of Extreme-BCG Clusters at 0.2 < z < 0.5

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garmire, Gordon

2017-09-01

The recently-discovered Phoenix cluster harbors the most extreme BCG in the known universe. Despite the cluster's high mass and X-ray luminosity, it was consistently identified by surveys as an isolated AGN, due to the bright central point source and the compact cool core. Armed with hindsight, we have undertaken an all-sky survey based on archival X-ray, OIR, and radio data to identify other similarly-extreme systems that were likewise missed. A pilot study demonstrated that this strategy works, leading to the discovery of a new, massive cluster at z 0.2 which was missed by previous X-ray surveys due to the presence of a bright central QSO. We propose here to observe 6 new clusters from our complete northern-sky survey, which harbor some of the most extreme central galaxies known.

Loss of ecosystem productivity with repeated drought: a multi-year experiment to assess the role of drought legacy effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, M. D.; Knapp, A.; Hoover, D. L.; Avolio, M. L.; Felton, A. J.; Slette, I.; Wilcox, K.

2017-12-01

Climate extremes, such as drought, are increasing in frequency and intensity, and the ecological consequences of these extreme events can be substantial and widespread. Yet, little is known about the factors that determine recovery of ecosystem function post-drought. Such knowledge is particularly important because post-drought recovery periods can be protracted depending on drought legacy effects (e.g., loss key plant populations, altered community structure and/or biogeochemical processes). These drought legacies may alter ecosystem function for many years post-drought and may impact future sensitivity to climate extremes. With forecasts of more frequent drought, there is an imperative to understand whether and how post-drought legacies will affect ecosystem response to future drought events. To address this knowledge gap, we experimentally imposed over an eight year period two extreme growing season droughts, each two years in duration followed by a two-year recovery period, in a central US grassland. We found that aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP) declined dramatically with the first drought and was accompanied by a large shift in plant species composition (loss of C3 forb and increase in C4 grasses). This drought legacy - shift in plant composition - persisted two years post-drought. Yet, despite this legacy, ANPP recovered fully. However, we expected that previously-droughted grassland would be less sensitive to a second extreme drought due to the shift in plant composition. Contrary to this expectation, previously droughted grassland experienced a greater loss in ANPP than grassland that had not experienced drought. Furthermore, previously droughted grassland did not fully recover after the second drought. Thus, the legacy of drought - a shift in plant community composition - increased ecosystem sensitivity to a future extreme drought event.

The Extreme Climate Index: a novel and multi-hazard index for extreme weather events.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cucchi, Marco; Petitta, Marcello; Calmanti, Sandro

2017-04-01

In this presentation we introduce the Extreme Climate Index (ECI): an objective, multi-hazard index capable of tracking changes in the frequency or magnitude of extreme weather events in African countries, thus indicating that a shift to a new climate regime is underway in a particular area. This index has been developed in the context of XCF (eXtreme Climate Facilities) project lead by ARC (African Risk Capacity, specialised agency of the African Union), and will be used in the payouts triggering mechanism of an insurance programme against risks related to the increase of frequency and magnitude of extreme weather events due to climate regimes' changes. The main hazards covered by ECI will be extreme dry, wet and heat events, with the possibility of adding region-specific risk events such as tropical cyclones for the most vulnerable areas. It will be based on data coming from consistent, sufficiently long, high quality historical records and will be standardized across broad geographical regions, so that extreme events occurring under different climatic regimes in Africa can be comparable. The first step to construct such an index is to define single hazard indicators. In this first study we focused on extreme dry/wet and heat events, using for their description respectively the well-known SPI (Standardized Precipitation Index) and an index developed by us, called SHI (Standardized Heat-waves Index). The second step consists in the development of a computational strategy to combine these, and possibly other indices, so that the ECI can describe, by means of a single indicator, different types of climatic extremes. According to the methodology proposed in this paper, the ECI is defined by two statistical components: the ECI intensity, which indicates whether an event is extreme or not; the angular component, which represent the contribution of each hazard to the overall intensity of the index. The ECI can thus be used to identify "extremes" after defining a suitable threshold above which the events can be held as extremes. In this presentation, after describing the methodology we used for the construction of the ECI, we present results obtained on different African regions, using NCEP Reanalysis dataset for air temperature at sig995 level and CHIRP dataset for precipitations. Particular attention will be devoted to 2015/2016 Malawi drought, which received some media attention due to the failure of the risk assessment model used to trigger due payouts: it will be shown how, on the contrary, combination of hydrological and temperature data used in ECI succeed in evaluating the extremeness of this event.

Death from Barotrauma Due to Compressed Air: A Medico-legal Analysis.

PubMed

Giugliano, Pasquale; Massoni, Francesco; Crisci, Antonello; Ricci, Serafino

2016-11-01

Lesions of the digestive tract due to barotrauma resulting from compressed air application are not common, are rarely lethal, and largely affect the sigmoid and descending colon. Moreover, their pathogenic mechanism is a topic of discussion because these lesions have multiple characteristics. Here, the authors describe an autoptic case of death from lesions of the ascending and transverse segments, with perforations and bleeding suffusions as well as ischemic areas covered the colonic wall that was extremely thinned, congested, and hemorrhagic, with considerable flattening leading to disappearance of the mucosal folds and with numerous petechial hemorrhages. The pathological framework of lung congestion made it possible to identify the mechanism responsible for this death as depletion of the heart's pumping function, which contributed significantly to the acute respiratory failure due to respiratory distress as well as to reduced mobility of the diaphragm due to intestinal distension. Acute heart failure played an important role in this death. © 2016 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.

Changes in the extremes of the climate simulated by CCC GCM2 under CO{sub 2} doubling

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zwiers, F.W.; Kharin, V.V.

Changes due to CO{sub 2} doubling in the extremes of the surface climate as simulated by the second-generation circulation model of the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis are studied in two 20-yr equilibrium simulations. Extreme values of screen temperature, precipitation, and near-surface wind in the control climate are compared to those estimated from 17 yr of the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis data and from some Canadian station data. The extremes of screen temperature are reasonably well reproduced in the control climate. Their changes under CO{sub 2} doubling can be connected with other physical changes such as surface albedo changes duemore » to the reduction of snow and sea ice cover as well as a decrease of soil moisture in the warmer world. The signal in the extremes of daily precipitation and near-surface wind speed due to CO{sub 2} doubling is less obvious. The precipitation extremes increase almost everywhere over the globe. The strongest change, over northwest India, is related to the intensification of the summer monsoon in this region in the warmer world. The modest reduction of wind extremes in the Tropics and middle latitudes is consistent with the reduction of the meridional temperature gradient in the 2{times}CO{sub 2} climate. The larger wind extremes occur in the areas where sea ice has retreated.« less

Improving Simulations of Extreme Flows by Coupling a Physically-based Hydrologic Model with a Machine Learning Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mohammed, K.; Islam, A. S.; Khan, M. J. U.; Das, M. K.

2017-12-01

With the large number of hydrologic models presently available along with the global weather and geographic datasets, streamflows of almost any river in the world can be easily modeled. And if a reasonable amount of observed data from that river is available, then simulations of high accuracy can sometimes be performed after calibrating the model parameters against those observed data through inverse modeling. Although such calibrated models can succeed in simulating the general trend or mean of the observed flows very well, more often than not they fail to adequately simulate the extreme flows. This causes difficulty in tasks such as generating reliable projections of future changes in extreme flows due to climate change, which is obviously an important task due to floods and droughts being closely connected to people's lives and livelihoods. We propose an approach where the outputs of a physically-based hydrologic model are used as an input to a machine learning model to try and better simulate the extreme flows. To demonstrate this offline-coupling approach, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was selected as the physically-based hydrologic model, the Artificial Neural Network (ANN) as the machine learning model and the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) river system as the study area. The GBM river system, located in South Asia, is the third largest in the world in terms of freshwater generated and forms the largest delta in the world. The flows of the GBM rivers were simulated separately in order to test the performance of this proposed approach in accurately simulating the extreme flows generated by different basins that vary in size, climate, hydrology and anthropogenic intervention on stream networks. Results show that by post-processing the simulated flows of the SWAT models with ANN models, simulations of extreme flows can be significantly improved. The mean absolute errors in simulating annual maximum/minimum daily flows were minimized from 4967 cusecs to 1294 cusecs for Ganges, from 5695 cusecs to 2115 cusecs for Brahmaputra and from 689 cusecs to 321 cusecs for Meghna. Using this approach, simulations of hydrologic variables other than streamflow can also be improved given that a decent amount of observed data for that variable is available.

Future changes in precipitation patterns and extremes: a model-based approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mitsakis, Evangelos; Stamos, Iraklis; Anastassiadou, Kalliopi; Kammerer, Harald; Kaundinya, Ingo; Kohl, Bernhard; Kapsomenakis, John; Zerefos, Christos; Aifadopoulou, Georfia

2016-04-01

In recent decades, the Earth has experienced abrupt climate changes, including changes of mean precipitation heights as well as precipitation extremes. It is very likely that the abrupt climate changes which are result of the increase of the greenhouse gases (GHG) concentration (IPCC 2007) will continue with an accelerate magnitude in the coming decades. The modern tool used to project the future climate change is General Circulation Models (GCMs). Due to computational resources limitations, the horizontal resolution of present day GCMs is quite low, usually in the order of hundreds of kilometers. In such a crude resolution many local aspects of the climate are unable to be represented. In addition, the topographical input is equally crude, thus excluding important local features of the topographic forcing. For these reasons downscaling methods have been developed, which input the GCM results producing high resolution localized climate information. Dynamical downscaling is achieved using Regional Climate Models (RCMs) that increase the resolution of the GCMs to even less than 10 km. In that direction, future changes in the mean precipitation as well as precipitation extremes due to the anthropogenic climate change over the area of Greece are examined for various emission scenarios in the framework of this paper (e.g. RCP 8.5, SRES A1B, etc.). Regarding Greece, future changes are based on daily precipitation data from 18 Region Climate Models simulations (6 for RCP 8.5 and 12 for SRES A1B). The changes in precipitation extremes are defined by calculating the changes of nine extreme precipitation indices which are divided in three categories: percentile (R75p, R95p, R99p), absolute threshold (Rmax, R10, R20, R50, RX5day) and duration (CDD) indices, as defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). Taking into account all the results that are discussed explicitly in the following sections we conclude that the mean precipitation as well as the number of moderate rainy days is projected to decrease over Greece especially in the end of 21th century. Nevertheless the frequency as well as the strength of individual extremely high precipitation events will be increased over the largest part of Greece.

[The epidemiology of musculoskeletal changes due to biomechanical overload of the spine in the manual lifting of patients].

PubMed

Bordini, L; De Vito, G; Molteni, G; Boccardi, S

1999-01-01

The painful lumbosacral symptoms associated with manual lifting by nursing staff constitutes an increasingly important problem in Occupational Health. This category of workers is in fact particularly exposed to risk situations involving the lumbar region of the spine, due especially to the extreme variability of work on the shift, the nature of what is lifted and not always sufficient knowledge and proper performance of the movements. On the basis of a review of a series of studies made on this topic, it was possible to assess the incidence and prevalence of low back pain in selected populations and identify the postural risk to which nursing staff are exposed at work, stressing also the importance of a correct knowledge of manual lifting techniques, frequency and mode of performing them, and the psychological aspects (perception of the intensity of tasks and osteoarticular strain). It was also observed that the data on painful lumbosacral symptoms were underestimated due to the type of epidemiological investigations carried out (mostly cross-sectional) and that comparison of the data proposed was often difficult due to the different criteria of evaluation used to classify the painful symptoms and also to the various epidemiological parameters used (incidence, cumulative incidence, prevalence).

Extreme Landfalling Atmospheric River Events in Arizona: Possible Future Changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, I.; Dominguez, F.

2016-12-01

Changing climate could impact the frequency and intensity of extreme atmospheric river events. This can have important consequences for regions like the Southwestern United Sates that rely upon AR-related precipitation for meeting their water demand and are prone to AR-related flooding. This study investigates the effects of climate change on extreme AR events in the Salt and Verde river basins in Central Arizona using a pseudo global warming method (PGW). First, the five most extreme events that affected the region were selected. High-resolution control simulations of these events using the Weather Research and Forecasting model realistically captured the magnitude and spatial distribution of precipitation. Subsequently, following the PGW approach, the WRF initial and lateral boundary conditions were perturbed. The perturbation signals were obtained from an ensemble of 9 General Circulation Models for two warming scenarios - Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP8.5. Several simulations were conducted changing the temperature and relative humidity fields. PGW simulations reveal that while the overall dynamics of the storms did not change significantly, there was marked strengthening of associated Integrated Vertical Transport (IVT) plumes. There was a general increase in the precipitation over the basins due to increased moisture availability, but heterogeneous spatial changes. Additionally, no significant changes in the strength of the pre-cold frontal low-level jet in the future simulations were observed.

[Direct medical costs of hospital treatment of fractures of the upper extremity of the femur].

PubMed

El Ayoubi, Abdelghani; Bouhelo, Kevin Parfait Bienvenu; Chafik, Hachem; Nasri, Mohammed; El Idrissi, Mohammed; Shimi, Mohammed; El Ibrahimi, Abdelhalim; Elmrini, Abdelmajid

2017-01-01

Fractures of the upper extremity of the femur are serious because of their morbidity and social and/or economic consequences. They have been the subject of several studies of world literature concerning their hospital treatment, evolution and prevention. The increase in the incidence of this pathology seems unavoidable due to population ageing and to the lengthening life expectancy; it is posing a real long-term public health problem whose importance will be further increased by the need to control health care costs. The results of this study show that the average age of onset of fracture of the proximal extremity of the femur is 68,13 ± 16.9 years, with a male predominance and a sex ratio of 1.14. In our study pertrochanterian fractures represented 69.4% of cases. Direct medical costs of the hospital treatment of fractures of the upper extremity of the femur at the Hassan II University Hospital were £387 714,38 in 222 cases, with an average cost of £1757,4 , including costs for patient's stay in hospital, which represented the majority of expenses ( 77% of total costs). It is desirable to raise staff awareness of the costs of consumables in order to reduce treatment costs and to adopt cost-oriented behaviour. Length of stay should be limited to the maximum extent because it only allows to reduce staff and accommodation costs.

Natural Hazards characterisation in industrial practice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bernardara, Pietro

2017-04-01

The definition of rare hydroclimatic extremes (up to 10-4 annual probability of occurrence) is of the utmost importance for the design of high value industrial infrastructures, such as grids, power plants, offshore platforms. The underestimation as well as the overestimation of the risk may lead to huge costs (ex. mid-life expensive works or overdesign) which may even prevent the project to happen. Nevertheless, the uncertainty associated to the extrapolation towards the rare frequencies are huge and manifold. They are mainly due to the scarcity of observations, the lack of quality on the extreme value records and on the arbitrary choice of the models used for extrapolations. This often put the design engineers in uncomfortable situations when they must choose the design values to use. Providentially, the recent progresses in the earth observation techniques, information technology, historical data collection and weather and ocean modelling are making huge datasets available. A careful use of big datasets of observations and modelled data are leading towards a better understanding of the physics of the underlying phenomena, the complex interactions between them and thus of the extreme events frequency extrapolations. This will move the engineering practice from the single site, small sample, application of statistical analysis to a more spatially coherent, physically driven extrapolation of extreme values. Few examples, from the EDF industrial practice are given to illustrate these progresses and their potential impact on the design approaches.

Rare events modeling with support vector machine: Application to forecasting large-amplitude geomagnetic substorms and extreme events in financial markets.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gavrishchaka, V. V.; Ganguli, S. B.

2001-12-01

Reliable forecasting of rare events in a complex dynamical system is a challenging problem that is important for many practical applications. Due to the nature of rare events, data set available for construction of the statistical and/or machine learning model is often very limited and incomplete. Therefore many widely used approaches including such robust algorithms as neural networks can easily become inadequate for rare events prediction. Moreover in many practical cases models with high-dimensional inputs are required. This limits applications of the existing rare event modeling techniques (e.g., extreme value theory) that focus on univariate cases. These approaches are not easily extended to multivariate cases. Support vector machine (SVM) is a machine learning system that can provide an optimal generalization using very limited and incomplete training data sets and can efficiently handle high-dimensional data. These features may allow to use SVM to model rare events in some applications. We have applied SVM-based system to the problem of large-amplitude substorm prediction and extreme event forecasting in stock and currency exchange markets. Encouraging preliminary results will be presented and other possible applications of the system will be discussed.

Fewer rainy days and more extreme rainfall by the end of the century in Southern Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pohl, Benjamin; Macron, Clémence; Monerie, Paul-Arthur

2017-04-01

Future changes in the structure of daily rainfall, especially the number of rainy days and the intensity of extreme events, are likely to induce major impacts on rain-fed agriculture in the tropics. In Africa this issue is of primary importance, but the agreement between climate models to simulate such descriptors of rainfall is generally poor. Here, we show that the climate models used for the fifth assessment report of IPCC simulate a marked decrease in the number of rainy days, together with a strong increase in the rainfall amounts during the 1% wettest days, by the end of the 21st century over Southern Africa. These combined changes lead to an apparent stability of seasonal totals, but are likely to alter the quality of the rainy season. These evolutions are due to the superposition of slowly-changing moisture fluxes, mainly supported by increased hygrometric capacity associated with global warming, and unchanged short-term atmospheric configurations in which extreme events are embedded. This could cause enhanced floods or droughts, stronger soil erosion and nutriment loss, questioning the sustainability of food security for the 300 million people currently living in Africa south of the Equator.

Predicting the solubility of gases in Nitrile Butadiene Rubber in extreme conditions using molecular simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khawaja, Musab; Molinari, Nicola; Sutton, Adrian; Mostofi, Arash

In the oil and gas industry, elastomer seals play an important role in protecting sensitive monitoring equipment from contamination by gases - a problem that is exacerbated by the high pressures and temperatures found down-hole. The ability to predict and prevent such permeative failure has proved elusive to-date. Nitrile butadiene rubber (NBR) is a common choice of elastomer for seals due to its resistance to heat and fuels. In the conditions found in the well it readily absorbs small molecular weight gases. How this behaviour changes quantitatively for different gases as a function of temperature and pressure is not well-understood. In this work a series of fully atomistic simulations are performed to understand the effect of extreme conditions on gas solubility in NBR. Widom particle insertion is used to compute solubilities. The importance of sampling and allowing structural relaxation upon compression are highlighted, and qualitatively reasonable trends reproduced. Finally, while at STP it has previously been shown that the solubility of CO2 is higher than that of He in NBR, we observe that under the right circumstances it is possible to reverse this trend.

Managing the Nation's water in a changing climate

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lins, H.F.; Stakhiv, E.Z.

1998-01-01

Among the many concerns associated with global climate change, the potential effects on water resources are frequently cited as the most worrisome. In contrast, those who manage water resources do not rate climatic change among their top planning and operational concerns. The difference in these views can be associated with how water managers operate their systems and the types of stresses, and the operative time horizons, that affect the Nation's water resources infrastructure. Climate, or more precisely weather, is an important variable in the management of water resources at daily to monthly time scales because water resources systems generally are operated on a daily basis. At decadal to centennial time scales, though, climate is much less important because (1) forecasts, particularly of regional precipitation, are extremely uncertain over such time periods, and (2) the magnitude of effects due to changes in climate on water resources is small relative to changes in other variables such as population, technology, economics, and environmental regulation. Thus, water management agencies find it difficult to justify changing design features or operating rules on the basis of simulated climatic change at the present time, especially given that reservoir-design criteria incorporate considerable buffering capacity for extreme meteorological and hydrological events.

Knowledge management performance methodology regarding manufacturing organizations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Istrate, C.; Herghiligiu, I. V.

2016-08-01

The current business situation is extremely complicated. Business must adapt to the changes in order (a) to survive on the increasingly dynamic markets, (b) to meet customers’ new request for complex, customized and innovative products. In modern manufacturing organizations it can be seen a substantial improvement regarding the management of knowledge. This occurs due to the fact that organizations realized that knowledge and an efficient management of knowledge generates the highest value. Even it could be said that the manufacturing organizations were and are the biggest beneficiary of KM science. Knowledge management performance (KMP) evaluation in manufacturing organizations can be considered as extremely important because without measuring it, they are unable to properly assess (a) what goals, targets and activities must have continuity, (b) what must be improved and (c) what must be completed. Therefore a proper KM will generate multiple competitive advantages for organizations. This paper presents a developed methodological framework regarding the KMP importance regarding manufacturing organizations. This methodological framework was developed using as research methods: bibliographical research and a panel of specialists. The purpose of this paper is to improve the evaluation process of KMP and to provide a viable tool for manufacturing organizations managers.

Rapid formation and evolution of an extreme haze episode in Northern China during winter 2015

PubMed Central

Sun, Yele; Chen, Chen; Zhang, Yingjie; Xu, Weiqi; Zhou, Libo; Cheng, Xueling; Zheng, Haitao; Ji, Dongsheng; Li, Jie; Tang, Xiao; Fu, Pingqing; Wang, Zifa

2016-01-01

We investigate the rapid formation and evolutionary mechanisms of an extremely severe and persistent haze episode that occurred in northern China during winter 2015 using comprehensive ground and vertical measurements, along with receptor and dispersion model analysis. Our results indicate that the life cycle of a severe winter haze episode typically consists of four stages: (1) rapid formation initiated by sudden changes in meteorological parameters and synchronous increases in most aerosol species, (2) persistent evolution with relatively constant variations in secondary inorganic aerosols and secondary organic aerosols, (3) further evolution associated with fog processing and significantly enhanced sulfate levels, and (4) clearing due to dry, cold north-northwesterly winds. Aerosol composition showed substantial changes during the formation and evolution of the haze episode but was generally dominated by regional secondary aerosols (53–67%). Our results demonstrate the important role of regional transport, largely from the southwest but also from the east, and of coal combustion emissions for winter haze formation in Beijing. Also, we observed an important downward mixing pathway during the severe haze in 2015 that can lead to rapid increases in certain aerosol species. PMID:27243909

USACE Extreme Sea levels

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-03-14

with expected changes due to climate change. (tropicals and extra-tropicals) Ivan provided some good information on work being done on tropical...Pattiaratchi, C., Jensen, J., 2013. Estimating extreme water level probabilities: a comparison of the direct methods and recommendations for best practise ...sites: site-by-site analyses. Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory , Internal Document, No. 65, 229pp. Dixon, M.J., Tawn, J.A. (1995) Extreme sea-levels

Impacts of Extreme Events on Human Health. Chapter 4

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bell, Jesse E.; Herring, Stephanie C.; Jantarasami, Lesley; Adrianopoli, Carl; Benedict, Kaitlin; Conlon, Kathryn; Escobar, Vanessa; Hess, Jeremy; Luvall, Jeffrey; Garcia-Pando, Carlos Perez;

Extreme-scale Algorithms and Solver Resilience

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dongarra, Jack

A widening gap exists between the peak performance of high-performance computers and the performance achieved by complex applications running on these platforms. Over the next decade, extreme-scale systems will present major new challenges to algorithm development that could amplify this mismatch in such a way that it prevents the productive use of future DOE Leadership computers due to the following; Extreme levels of parallelism due to multicore processors; An increase in system fault rates requiring algorithms to be resilient beyond just checkpoint/restart; Complex memory hierarchies and costly data movement in both energy and performance; Heterogeneous system architectures (mixing CPUs, GPUs,more » etc.); and Conflicting goals of performance, resilience, and power requirements.« less

Chicago, IL Adapts to Improve Extreme Heat Preparedness

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Recognizing that heat waves are expected to increase in Chicago due to climate change,–supported by the Chicago Climate Impacts Report, the city adopted a comprehensive set of actions to reduce deaths from extreme heat events.

Dependencies of Europe's economy on water resources outside its borders and its vulnerability to weather extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chico Zamanillo, Daniel; Chapagain, Ashok; Ercin, Ertug

2017-04-01

Europe's economy is dependent on water resources elsewhere in the world since many of the goods consumed in the EU are not produced domestically, but abroad. Reliance on food, energy and goods produced in regions outside of the EU may impose water related risks on different economic sectors within the EU due to vulnerability of water resources used in their production to hydrological extremes and climate change. IMPREX project addresses this economic dependency and water resources vulnerability to hydrological extremes and climate change under WP12 "Water Economy". This study presents the results of the first task of WP12, mapping current dependencies of European economy on water resources outside its borders and their vulnerability to drought and water scarcity. In our assessment, we have used water footprint, which is a measure of the appropriation of freshwater resources for human activities, and is comprised of three components - green (consumption of rainfall), blue (consumption of surface and groundwater) and grey (refers to water pollution). We first calculated virtual water import, the amount of water consumed in producing products imported to the EU, and we identified key products - those making up the largest virtual water inflows to the EU. After mapping the dependencies, we assessed water scarcity and drought severity in producing locations. Coupling this with the water footprint enabled us to map the EU's external water dependencies and to identify when and where vulnerabilities may lie, in terms of blue water scarcity and drought. Overall, external green water resources account for 41% of the total green water footprint of the EU's economy. Soybean, cocoa, coffee, oil palm, sunflower, maize and olives are identified as key products from the perspective of green virtual water import to the EU. Soybean is the crop with the largest virtual water import volume to the EU with imports coming from Argentina, Brazil and USA. Europe relies on soybean import to meet demand for meat and dairy products. Although around 99.5% of the green virtual water import to the EU related to soybean comes from locations with low drought risk, this is likely to change due to disruption of rainfall patterns under climate change in coming years. The vulnerability of 91% of the green virtual water import related to other key products is determined as "low". Thirty percent of the blue water resources consumed in production fueling Europe's economy come from external sources. The key products identified for blue virtual water import are rice, sugar cane, cotton, almonds, pistachios, grapes and soybean. These key products are sourced from areas under significant or severe water scarcity, thus making most blue water imports highly vulnerable. For example, 91% of almond and 74% of rice blue virtual water import to the EU are categorized as highly vulnerable. The results of this study and future tasks of WP12 will help governments, European policies and companies in their mid- and long-term planning for sustainable development in light of climate change, population growth and increased demand for products and services.

Understanding extreme sea levels for coastal impact and adaptation analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wahl, T.; Haigh, I. D.; Nicholls, R. J.; Arns, A.; Hinkel, J.; Dangendorf, S.; Slangen, A.

2016-12-01

Coastal impact and adaptation assessments require detailed knowledge on extreme sea levels, because increasing damage due to extreme events, such as storm surges and tropical cyclones, is one of the major consequences of sea level rise and climate change. In fact, the IPCC has highlighted in its AR4 report that "societal impacts of sea level change primarily occur via the extreme levels rather than as a direct consequence of mean sea level changes". Over the last few decades, substantial research efforts have been directed towards improved understanding of past and future mean sea level; different scenarios were developed with process-based or semi-empirical models and used for coastal impact assessments at various spatial scales to guide coastal management and adaptation efforts. The uncertainties in future sea level rise are typically accounted for by analyzing the impacts associated with a range of scenarios leading to a vertical displacement of the distribution of extreme sea-levels. And indeed most regional and global studies find little or no evidence for changes in storminess with climate change, although there is still low confidence in the results. However, and much more importantly, there is still a limited understanding of present-day extreme sea-levels which is largely ignored in most impact and adaptation analyses. The two key uncertainties stem from: (1) numerical models that are used to generate long time series of extreme sea-levels. The bias of these models varies spatially and can reach values much larger than the expected sea level rise; but it can be accounted for in most regions making use of in-situ measurements; (2) Statistical models used for determining present-day extreme sea-level exceedance probabilities. There is no universally accepted approach to obtain such values for flood risk assessments and while substantial research has explored inter-model uncertainties for mean sea level, we explore here, for the first time, inter-model uncertainties for extreme sea-levels at large spatial scales and compare them to the uncertainties in mean sea level projections.

Study of Pure Proteins, Nucleic Acids and Their Complexes from Halobacteria of the Dead Sea: RNA Polymerase-DNA Interaction.

DTIC Science & Technology

1987-09-21

objectives of our program are to isolate and characterize a fully active DNA dependent RNA polymerase from the extremely halophilic archaebacteria of the genus...operons in II. Marismortui. The halobacteriaceae are extreme halophiles . They require 3.5 M NaCI for optimal growth an(l no growth is observed below 2...was difficutlt to perform due to the extreme genetic instability in this strain (6). In contrast, the genoine of the extreme halophilic and prototrophic

Differences in extreme low salinity timing and duration differentially affect eastern oyster (Crassostrea virginica) size class growth and mortality in Breton Sound, LA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

La Peyre, Megan K.; Eberline, Benjamin S.; Soniat, Thomas M.; La Peyre, Jerome F.

2013-12-01

Understanding how different life history stages are impacted by extreme or stochastic environmental variation is critical for predicting and modeling organism population dynamics. This project examined recruitment, growth, and mortality of seed (25-75 mm) and market (>75 mm) sized oysters along a salinity gradient over two years in Breton Sound, LA. In April 2010, management responses to the Deepwater Horizon oil spill resulted in extreme low salinity (<5) at all sites through August 2010; in 2011, a 100-year Mississippi River flood event resulted in low salinity in late spring. Extended low salinity (<5) during hot summer months (>25 °C) significantly and negatively impacted oyster recruitment, survival and growth in 2010, while low salinity (<5) for a shorter period that did not extend into July (<25 °C) in 2011 had minimal impacts on oyster growth and mortality. In 2011, recruitment was limited, which may be due to a combination of low spring time salinities, high 2010 oyster mortality, minimal 2010 recruitment, cumulative effects from 10 years of declining oyster stock in the area, and poor cultch quality. In both 2010 and 2011, Perkinsus marinus infection prevalence remained low throughout the year at all sites and almost all infection intensities were light. Oyster plasma osmolality failed to match surrounding low salinity waters in 2010, while oysters appeared to osmoconform throughout 2011 indicating that the high mortality in 2010 may be due to extended valve closing and resulting starvation or asphyxiation in response to the combination of low salinity during high temperatures (>25 °C). With increasing management of our freshwater inputs to estuaries combined with predicted climate changes, how extreme events affect different life history stages is key to understanding variation in population demographics of commercially important species and predicting future populations.

Experimental droughts: Are precipitation variability and methodological trends hindering our understanding of ecological sensitivities to drought?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoover, D. L.; Wilcox, K.; Young, K. E.

2017-12-01

Droughts are projected to increase in frequency and intensity with climate change, which may have dramatic and prolonged effects on ecosystem structure and function. There are currently hundreds of published, ongoing, and new drought experiments worldwide aimed to assess ecosystem sensitivities to drought and identify the mechanisms governing ecological resistance and resilience. However, to date, the results from these experiments have varied widely, and thus patterns of drought sensitivities have been difficult to discern. This lack of consensus at the field scale, limits the abilities of experiments to help improve land surface models, which often fail to realistically simulate ecological responses to extreme events. This is unfortunate because models offer an alternative, yet complementary approach to increase the spatial and temporal assessment of ecological sensitivities to drought that are not possible in the field due to logistical and financial constraints. Here we examined 89 published drought experiments, along with their associated historical precipitation records to (1) identify where and how drought experiments have been imposed, (2) determine the extremity of drought treatments in the context of historical climate, and (3) assess the influence of precipitation variability on drought experiments. We found an overall bias in drought experiments towards short-term, extreme experiments in water-limited ecosystems. When placed in the context of local historical precipitation, most experimental droughts were extreme, with 61% below the 5th, and 43% below the 1st percentile. Furthermore, we found that interannual precipitation variability had a large and potentially underappreciated effect on drought experiments due to the co-varying nature of control and drought treatments. Thus detecting ecological effects in experimental droughts is strongly influenced by the interaction between drought treatment magnitude, precipitation variability, and key physiological thresholds. The results from this study have important implication for the design and interpretation of drought experiments as well as integrating field results with land surface models.

Geomorphic Complexity of Sequential Fire and Floods in Mountain Watersheds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brogan, D. J.; Nelson, P. A.; MacDonald, L. H.; Morgan, J. A.

2017-12-01

Fires and floods are important drivers of fluvial geomorphic changes. While each has been studied independently, there have been almost no situations where the hydrologic and geomorphic effects of fires and extreme floods could be compared at the watershed scale. Following the 2012 High Park fire in montane northcentral Colorado we began intensively monitoring channel changes in two 15 km2 watersheds (Skin Gulch and Hill Gulch) burned primarily at moderate to high severity. Summer thunderstorms resulted in extensive hillslope erosion and deposition in the valley bottoms, and subsequent incision through these deposits occurred due to spring snowmelt and elevated baseflows. The complex response associated with this state change from unburned to burned can be completely disrupted and overwhelmed by the larger changes resulting from extreme floods. Fifteen months after burning, both watersheds experienced an extreme flood resulting from a long-duration rainstorm; however, the geomorphic changes resulting from this flood differed markedly between the two watersheds. In Skin Gulch, sustained high flows from the September 2013 flood excavated nearly all of the accumulated sediment, expanded the active channel, and either scoured to bedrock or armored the bed with coarser substrate. Geomorphic changes in Hill Gulch due to the September 2013 flood, however, were small. The disparity between watersheds is likely the legacy of the catastrophic 1976 Big Thompson flood, which scoured out much of the previously accumulated sediment in Hill Gulch but did not appreciably impact Skin Gulch. These different sequences of disturbances indicate that fires in the Rocky Mountains often generate significant and dynamic geomorphic changes over sub-decadal timescales, while extreme floods can result in much longer lasting geomorphic changes. Our results allow us to compare the geomorphic sensitivity for different sequences of fire and floods, and propose a new conceptual model to explain the complicated interactions between the effects of fires and floods on the landscape.

Differences in extreme low salinity timing and duration differentially affect eastern oyster (Crassostrea virginica) size class growth and mortality in Breton Sound, LA

USGS Publications Warehouse

LaPeyre, Megan K.; Eberline, Benjamin S.; Soniat, Thomas M.; La Peyre, Jerome F.

2013-01-01

Understanding how different life history stages are impacted by extreme or stochastic environmental variation is critical for predicting and modeling organism population dynamics. This project examined recruitment, growth, and mortality of seed (25–75 mm) and market (>75 mm) sized oysters along a salinity gradient over two years in Breton Sound, LA. In April 2010, management responses to the Deepwater Horizon oil spill resulted in extreme low salinity (<5) at all sites through August 2010; in 2011, a 100-year Mississippi River flood event resulted in low salinity in late spring. Extended low salinity (<5) during hot summer months (>25 °C) significantly and negatively impacted oyster recruitment, survival and growth in 2010, while low salinity (<5) for a shorter period that did not extend into July (<25 °C) in 2011 had minimal impacts on oyster growth and mortality. In 2011, recruitment was limited, which may be due to a combination of low spring time salinities, high 2010 oyster mortality, minimal 2010 recruitment, cumulative effects from 10 years of declining oyster stock in the area, and poor cultch quality. In both 2010 and 2011, Perkinsus marinusinfection prevalence remained low throughout the year at all sites and almost all infection intensities were light. Oyster plasma osmolality failed to match surrounding low salinity waters in 2010, while oysters appeared to osmoconform throughout 2011 indicating that the high mortality in 2010 may be due to extended valve closing and resulting starvation or asphyxiation in response to the combination of low salinity during high temperatures (>25 °C). With increasing management of our freshwater inputs to estuaries combined with predicted climate changes, how extreme events affect different life history stages is key to understanding variation in population demographics of commercially important species and predicting future populations.

The hydrometeorological implications of zoning laws: Can land use regulations of urban density and sprawl improve a city's resilience?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bou-Zeid, E.; Ryu, Y. H.; Smith, J. A.; Newburn, D. A.

2015-12-01

The intensification of heat waves and of the hydrological cycle due to global climate change pose particularly high risks to urban residents. Cities are already hotter than their surroundings due to the urban heat island effect and are known to result in local intensification of rainfall and flooding due to their coupled impacts on the surface and the lower atmosphere. These interacting local and global changes can adversely affect the health and well being of urban residents, and city administrators are increasing efforts to mitigate and adapt to the potential disruptions though various infrastructure and preparedness programs. However, as cities worldwide continue to expand, a key decision is how to manage that urban sprawl and regulate its spatial features to aid in the mitigation and adaptation effort. This study assesses whether alternative zoning regulations that modify the density and extent of a metropolitan region, but have a minimal impact on total population and demographic growth, have an appreciable impact on its response to extreme weather events, and as such, whether they can be used to increase urban resilience. We consider Baltimore (the city and its surrounding suburbs), which in 1967 adopted one of the first urban growth boundaries (UGBs) in the United States, as our test case. Departing from the urban extent circa 1900, we create alternative land use patterns that, compared to the actual current land use baseline, would have resulted from drastically different policy scenarios and approaches to zoning that the city would have undertaken. We consider various alternatives where the city is smaller and denser, due to stricter regulation, versus larger and less dense than the actual baseline, while maintaining the same total population. Our findings indicate that lower densities have significant benefits: compared to the current landscape and to denser patterns, they reduce both extreme temperatures during heat waves and spatio-temporal rainfall peaks. While the particular findings hold for Baltimore and many cities with comparable climates, the conclusion that zoning laws and the resulting spatial patterns for urban density have important implications on a city's response to changing climate and extreme weather are more broadly applicable.

Fruit wastes fermentation for phenolic antioxidants production and their application in manufacture of edible coatings and films.

PubMed

Martinez-Avila, G C G; Aguilera, A F; Saucedo, S; Rojas, R; Rodriguez, R; Aguilar, C N

2014-01-01

Agro-industrial by-products are important sources of potent bioactive phenolic compounds. These compounds are of extreme relevance for food and pharmacological industries due to their great variety of biological activities. Fermentation represents an environmentally clean technology for production and extraction of these bioactive compounds, providing high quality and high activity extracts, which can be incorporated in foods using coatings/films wax-based in order to avoid alterations in their quality. In this document is presented an overview about importance and benefits of solid-state fermentation, pointing out this bioprocess as an alternative technology for use agro-industrial by-products as substrates to produce valuable secondary metabolites and their applications as food quality conservatives.

Chemical analysis of nutritional content of prickly pads (Opuntia ficus indica) at varied ages in an organic harvest.

PubMed

Hernández-Urbiola, Margarita I; Pérez-Torrero, Esther; Rodríguez-García, Mario E

2011-05-01

Opuntia ficus indica, also known as prickly pads, are an important part of the human diet and are also used as forage for livestock. This is an interesting vegetable due the environmental conditions in which it grows and its resistance to climatic extremes; however, little is known about its nutritional properties, especially in the later stages of maturity. The objective of this study was to determine the composition of organic prickly pads (Opuntia ficus indica) at differing stages of growth maturity. Chemical proximate analysis and mineral constituent analysis at different maturation stages were carried out in this investigation. As a result, older prickly pads were found to be an important source of nutritional components such as calcium.

Contemporary (post-Wills) survey of the views of Australian medical researchers: importance of funding, infrastructure and motivators for a research career.

PubMed

Shewan, Louise G; Glatz, Jane A; Bennett, Christine C; Coats, Andrew J S

To investigate the perceptions of Australian health and medical researchers 4 years after the Wills Report recommended and led to a substantial increase in health and medical research funding in Australia. A telephone poll of 501 active health and medical researchers, conducted between 28 April and 5 May, 2003. Researchers' views on the adequacy of funding, infrastructure and support, salary, community recognition, the excitement of discovery and research outcomes such as publication and patenting in research. Research funding was the most important concern: 91% of researchers (455/498) viewed funding as "very" or "extremely" important to their role, but only 10% (52/500) were "very" or "extremely" satisfied with the level of funding. Research infrastructure and support were seen as "very" or "extremely" important by 90% of researchers (449/501), while only 21% (104/501) were "very" or "extremely" satisfied. Researchers in medical research institutes were significantly more likely to be satisfied (27% [56/205] "very" or "extremely" satisfied) with the level of infrastructure and support than those working in universities (15% [41/268] "very" or "extremely" satisfied; P = 0.001). Among the factors that motivate researchers, the excitement of discovery stood out in terms of both high importance and satisfaction. Publications were viewed as more important research outcomes than patenting or commercial ventures. Funding and infrastructure support remain overwhelmingly researchers' greatest concerns. University-based researchers were less satisfied with infrastructure and support than those in independent medical research institutes.

Biogeophysical Impacts of Land-Use Change on Climate Extremes in Low-Emission Scenarios: Results From HAPPI-Land

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hirsch, Annette L.; Guillod, Benoit P.; Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Beyerle, Urs; Boysen, Lena R.; Brovkin, Victor; Davin, Edouard L.; Doelman, Jonathan C.; Kim, Hyungjun; Mitchell, Daniel M.; Nitta, Tomoko; Shiogama, Hideo; Sparrow, Sarah; Stehfest, Elke; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Wilson, Simon

2018-03-01

The impacts of land use have been shown to have considerable influence on regional climate. With the recent international commitment to limit global warming to well below 2°C, emission reductions need to be ambitious and could involve major land-use change (LUC). Land-based mitigation efforts to curb emissions growth include increasing terrestrial carbon sequestration through reforestation, or the adoption of bioenergy crops. These activities influence local climate through biogeophysical feedbacks, however, it is uncertain how important they are for a 1.5° climate target. This was the motivation for HAPPI-Land: the half a degree additional warming, prognosis, and projected impacts—land-use scenario experiment. Using four Earth system models, we present the first multimodel results from HAPPI-Land and demonstrate the critical role of land use for understanding the characteristics of regional climate extremes in low-emission scenarios. In particular, our results show that changes in temperature extremes due to LUC are comparable in magnitude to changes arising from half a degree of global warming. We also demonstrate that LUC contributes to more than 20% of the change in temperature extremes for large land areas concentrated over the Northern Hemisphere. However, we also identify sources of uncertainty that influence the multimodel consensus of our results including how LUC is implemented and the corresponding biogeophysical feedbacks that perturb climate. Therefore, our results highlight the urgent need to resolve the challenges in implementing LUC across models to quantify the impacts and consider how LUC contributes to regional changes in extremes associated with sustainable development pathways.

Regional Frequency and Uncertainty Analysis of Extreme Precipitation in Bangladesh

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mortuza, M. R.; Demissie, Y.; Li, H. Y.

2014-12-01

Increased frequency of extreme precipitations, especially those with multiday durations, are responsible for recent urban floods and associated significant losses of lives and infrastructures in Bangladesh. Reliable and routinely updated estimation of the frequency of occurrence of such extreme precipitation events are thus important for developing up-to-date hydraulic structures and stormwater drainage system that can effectively minimize future risk from similar events. In this study, we have updated the intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves for Bangladesh using daily precipitation data from 1961 to 2010 and quantified associated uncertainties. Regional frequency analysis based on L-moments is applied on 1-day, 2-day and 5-day annual maximum precipitation series due to its advantages over at-site estimation. The regional frequency approach pools the information from climatologically similar sites to make reliable estimates of quantiles given that the pooling group is homogeneous and of reasonable size. We have used Region of influence (ROI) approach along with homogeneity measure based on L-moments to identify the homogenous pooling groups for each site. Five 3-parameter distributions (i.e., Generalized Logistic, Generalized Extreme value, Generalized Normal, Pearson Type Three, and Generalized Pareto) are used for a thorough selection of appropriate models that fit the sample data. Uncertainties related to the selection of the distributions and historical data are quantified using the Bayesian Model Averaging and Balanced Bootstrap approaches respectively. The results from this study can be used to update the current design and management of hydraulic structures as well as in exploring spatio-temporal variations of extreme precipitation and associated risk.

Biogeophysical Impacts of Land‐Use Change on Climate Extremes in Low‐Emission Scenarios: Results From HAPPI‐Land

PubMed Central

Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Beyerle, Urs; Boysen, Lena R.; Brovkin, Victor; Davin, Edouard L.; Doelman, Jonathan C.; Kim, Hyungjun; Mitchell, Daniel M.; Nitta, Tomoko; Shiogama, Hideo; Sparrow, Sarah; Stehfest, Elke; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Wilson, Simon

2018-01-01

Abstract The impacts of land use have been shown to have considerable influence on regional climate. With the recent international commitment to limit global warming to well below 2°C, emission reductions need to be ambitious and could involve major land‐use change (LUC). Land‐based mitigation efforts to curb emissions growth include increasing terrestrial carbon sequestration through reforestation, or the adoption of bioenergy crops. These activities influence local climate through biogeophysical feedbacks, however, it is uncertain how important they are for a 1.5° climate target. This was the motivation for HAPPI‐Land: the half a degree additional warming, prognosis, and projected impacts—land‐use scenario experiment. Using four Earth system models, we present the first multimodel results from HAPPI‐Land and demonstrate the critical role of land use for understanding the characteristics of regional climate extremes in low‐emission scenarios. In particular, our results show that changes in temperature extremes due to LUC are comparable in magnitude to changes arising from half a degree of global warming. We also demonstrate that LUC contributes to more than 20% of the change in temperature extremes for large land areas concentrated over the Northern Hemisphere. However, we also identify sources of uncertainty that influence the multimodel consensus of our results including how LUC is implemented and the corresponding biogeophysical feedbacks that perturb climate. Therefore, our results highlight the urgent need to resolve the challenges in implementing LUC across models to quantify the impacts and consider how LUC contributes to regional changes in extremes associated with sustainable development pathways.

Call for national dialogue: Adapting standards of care in extreme events. We are not ready.

PubMed

Cusack, Lynette; Gebbie, Kristine

Clinical practices are based on a common understanding of nursing's professional standards in all aspects of patient care, no matter what the circumstances are. Circumstances can however, change dramatically due to emergencies, disasters, or pandemics and may make it difficult to meet the standard of care in the way nurses are accustomed. The Australian nursing profession has not yet facilitated a broad discussion and debate at the professional and institutional level about adapting standards of care under extreme conditions, a dialogue which goes beyond the content of basic emergency and disaster preparedness. The purpose of this paper is to encourage discussion within the nursing profession on this important ethical and legal issue. A comprehensive review of the literature was undertaken to determine the state of the evidence in relation to adapting standards of care under extreme conditions. Content analysis of the literature identified categories related to adapting standards of care that have been considered by individuals or groups that should be considered in Australia, should a dialogue be undertaken. The categories include ethical expectations of professional practice; legal interpretation of care requirements, resource priority between hospital and public health and informing communities. Literature reviews and commentary may provide the background for a national dialogue on the nursing response in an extreme event. However, it is only with the engagement of a broadly representative segment of the professional nursing community that appropriate guidance on adapting standards of care under extreme conditions can be developed and then integrated into the professional worldview of nursing in Australia.

Extremely elevated alpha-fetoprotein due to acute exacerbation of chronic hepatitis B without malignancy: a case report.

PubMed

Yoon, Young-Min; Kang, Da-Yeong; Kim, Da-Young; Seo, Jun-Won; Lim, Hyun-Jong; Lee, Hee-Jeong; Park, Sang-Gon

2016-06-01

Alpha-fetoprotein is produced by a variety of tumors such as hepatocellular carcinoma, hepatoblastoma, and germ cell tumors of the ovary and testes. However, we present a case of significantly elevated serum alpha-fetoprotein without evidence of malignant disease in a patient who is a carrier of chronic hepatitis B. A 60-year-old Korean man presented with markedly increased alpha-fetoprotein (2350 ng/mL; normal <5 ng/mL). Various diagnostic evaluations, including computed tomography of the abdomen and thorax and ultrasonography of the abdomen and testes, showed liver cirrhosis and mild splenomegaly; however, no mass was detected in the liver, testes, or other organs scanned. The laboratory findings showed elevated liver function, positivity for hepatitis B e antigen, and a marked increase in hepatitis B virus deoxyribonucleic acid copy number (>7 × 105 IU/mL). Our patient was diagnosed with acute exacerbation of chronic hepatitis B, and we presumed that this condition might be related to extremely elevated alpha-fetoprotein. When our patient was treated with entecavir, the serum alpha-fetoprotein level immediately decreased, in parallel with the hepatitis B virus deoxyribonucleic acid copy number. We report a rare case of extremely elevated alpha-fetoprotein due to acute exacerbation of chronic hepatitis B without any malignancy, and a decrease in this tumor marker simultaneous with a decrease in hepatitis B virus deoxyribonucleic acid copy number on entecavir treatment. This case report is important due to the rarity of the case; furthermore, it provides details of a diagnostic process for a variety of benign diseases and malignant tumors that should be considered in patients with elevated alpha-fetoprotein. Thus, we present a case report, along with a review, that will be helpful for diagnosis and treatment of patients with elevated alpha-fetoprotein.

Long-term enrichment of the stable isotopic composition of stream water due to the release of groundwater recharge from extreme precipitation events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boutt, D. F.

2017-12-01

The isotopic composition of surface and groundwater is impacted by a multitude of hydrologic processes. The long-term response of these systems to hydrologic change is critical for appropriately interpreting isotopic information for streamflow generation, stream-aquifer-coupling, sources of water to wells, and understanding recharge processes. To evaluate the response time of stream-aquifer systems to extreme precipitation events we use a long-term isotope dataset from Western Massachusetts with drainage areas ranging from 0.1 to > 800 km2. The year of 2011 was the wettest calendar year on record and the months of August and September of 2011 were the wettest consecutive two-month period in the 123 year record. Stable isotopic composition of surface waters of catchments ranging from 1 - 1000 km2 show an enrichment due to summertime and Tropical Storm precipitation. Enrichment in potential recharge water is shown to have a significant long-term impact (> 3 hydrologic years) on the isotopic composition of both surface and groundwater. This highlights the importance of groundwater sources of baseflow to streams and the transient storage and release mechanisms of shallow groundwater storage. The length of isotopic recession of stream water are also a strong function of watershed area. It is concluded that the stream water isotopes are consistent with a large pulse of water being stored and released from enriched groundwater emplaced during this period of above-average precipitation. Ultimately the results point to the importance of considering hydrological processes of streamflow generation and their role in hydrologic processes beyond traditional catchment response analysis.

The Prospects of Accounting at Mining Enterprises as a Factor of Ensuring their Sustainable Development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tyuleneva, Tatiana

2017-11-01

One of the problems of sustainable development of mining companies is attracting additional investment. To solve it requires access to international capital markets, in this context, enterprises need to prepare financial statements with international requirements based on the data generated by the accounting system. The article considers the basic problems of accounting in the extractive industries due to the nature of the industry, as well as evaluation of the completeness of their solution in the framework of international financial reporting standards. In addition, lists the characteristics of accounting for mining industry, due to the peculiarities of the production process that need to be considered to solve these problems. This sector is extremely important for individual countries and on a global scale.

A Millennial Challenge: Extremism in Uncertain Times

PubMed Central

Fiske, Susan T.

2014-01-01

This comment highlights the relevance and importance of the uncertainty-extremism topic, both scientifically and societally, identifies common themes, locates this work in a wider scientific and social context, describes what we now know and what we still do not, acknowledges some limitations, foreshadowing future directions, and discusses some potential policy relevance. Common themes emerge around the importance of social justice as sound anti-extremism policy. PMID:24511155

Nonlinear responses of southern African rainfall to forcing from Atlantic SST in a high-resolution regional climate model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, C.; Kniveton, D.; Layberry, R.

2009-04-01

It is increasingly accepted that any possible climate change will not only have an influence on mean climate but may also significantly alter climatic variability. A change in the distribution and magnitude of extreme rainfall events (associated with changing variability), such as droughts or flooding, may have a far greater impact on human and natural systems than a changing mean. This issue is of particular importance for environmentally vulnerable regions such as southern Africa. The subcontinent is considered especially vulnerable to and ill-equipped (in terms of adaptation) for extreme events, due to a number of factors including extensive poverty, famine, disease and political instability. Rainfall variability is a function of scale, so high spatial and temporal resolution data are preferred to identify extreme events and accurately predict future variability. In this research, high resolution satellite derived rainfall data from the Microwave Infra-Red Algorithm (MIRA) are used as a basis for undertaking model experiments using a state-of-the-art regional climate model. The MIRA dataset covers the period from 1993-2002 and the whole of southern Africa at a spatial resolution of 0.1 degree longitude/latitude. Once the model's ability to reproduce extremes has been assessed, idealised regions of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies are used to force the model, with the overall aim of investigating the ways in which SST anomalies influence rainfall extremes over southern Africa. In this paper, results from sensitivity testing of the regional climate model's domain size are briefly presented, before a comparison of simulated daily rainfall from the model with the satellite-derived dataset. Secondly, simulations of current climate and rainfall extremes from the model are compared to the MIRA dataset at daily timescales. Finally, the results from the idealised SST experiments are presented, suggesting highly nonlinear associations between rainfall extremes remote SST anomalies.

Patterns of amino acid conservation in human and animal immunodeficiency viruses.

PubMed

Voitenko, Olga S; Dhroso, Andi; Feldmann, Anna; Korkin, Dmitry; Kalinina, Olga V

2016-09-01

Due to their high genomic variability, RNA viruses and retroviruses present a unique opportunity for detailed study of molecular evolution. Lentiviruses, with HIV being a notable example, are one of the best studied viral groups: hundreds of thousands of sequences are available together with experimentally resolved three-dimensional structures for most viral proteins. In this work, we use these data to study specific patterns of evolution of the viral proteins, and their relationship to protein interactions and immunogenicity. We propose a method for identification of two types of surface residues clusters with abnormal conservation: extremely conserved and extremely variable clusters. We identify them on the surface of proteins from HIV and other animal immunodeficiency viruses. Both types of clusters are overrepresented on the interaction interfaces of viral proteins with other proteins, nucleic acids or low molecular-weight ligands, both in the viral particle and between the virus and its host. In the immunodeficiency viruses, the interaction interfaces are not more conserved than the corresponding proteins on an average, and we show that extremely conserved clusters coincide with protein-protein interaction hotspots, predicted as the residues with the largest energetic contribution to the interaction. Extremely variable clusters have been identified here for the first time. In the HIV-1 envelope protein gp120, they overlap with known antigenic sites. These antigenic sites also contain many residues from extremely conserved clusters, hence representing a unique interacting interface enriched both in extremely conserved and in extremely variable clusters of residues. This observation may have important implication for antiretroviral vaccine development. A Python package is available at https://bioinf.mpi-inf.mpg.de/publications/viral-ppi-pred/ voitenko@mpi-inf.mpg.de or kalinina@mpi-inf.mpg.de Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Life stage influences the resistance and resilience of black mangrove forests to winter climate extremes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Osland, Michael J.; Day, Richard H.; From, Andrew S.; McCoy, Megan L.; McLeod, Jennie L.; Kelleway, Jeffrey

2015-01-01

In subtropical coastal wetlands on multiple continents, climate change-induced reductions in the frequency and intensity of freezing temperatures are expected to lead to the expansion of woody plants (i.e., mangrove forests) at the expense of tidal grasslands (i.e., salt marshes). Since some ecosystem goods and services would be affected by mangrove range expansion, there is a need to better understand mangrove sensitivity to freezing temperatures as well as the implications of changing winter climate extremes for mangrove-salt marsh interactions. In this study, we investigated the following questions: (1) how does plant life stage (i.e., ontogeny) influence the resistance and resilience of black mangrove (Avicennia germinans) forests to freezing temperatures; and (2) how might differential life stage responses to freeze events affect the rate of mangrove expansion and salt marsh displacement due to climate change? To address these questions, we quantified freeze damage and recovery for different life stages (seedling, short tree, and tall tree) following extreme winter air temperature events that occurred near the northern range limit of A. germinans in North America. We found that life stage affects black mangrove forest resistance and resilience to winter climate extremes in a nonlinear fashion. Resistance to winter climate extremes was high for tall A. germinans trees and seedlings, but lowest for short trees. Resilience was highest for tall A. germinans trees. These results suggest the presence of positive feedbacks and indicate that climate-change induced decreases in the frequency and intensity of extreme minimum air temperatures could lead to a nonlinear increase in mangrove forest resistance and resilience. This feedback could accelerate future mangrove expansion and salt marsh loss at rates beyond what would be predicted from climate change alone. In general terms, our study highlights the importance of accounting for differential life stage responses and positive feedbacks when evaluating the ecological effects of changes in the frequency and magnitude of climate extremes.

Towards a full representation of tropical cyclones in a global reanalysis of extreme sea levels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muis, S.; Verlaan, M.; Lin, N.; Winsemius, H.; Vatvani, D.; Ward, P.; Aerts, J.

2016-12-01

Tropical cyclones (TCs), including hurricanes and typhoons, are characterised by high wind speeds and low pressure, and cause dangerous storm surges in coastal areas. Recent disasters like the flooding of New Orleans in 2005 due to Hurricane Katrina and of New York in 2012 due to Hurricane Sandy exemplify the significant TC risk in the United States. In this contribution, we present a new framework to model TC storm surges and probabilities at the Atlantic basin- and, ultimately, global scales. This works builds on the work of Muis et al. (2016), which presented the first dynamically-derived reanalysis dataset of storm surges that covers the entire world's coastline (GTSR dataset). Surge levels for the period 1979-2014 were simulated by forcing the Global Surge and Tide Model (GTSM) with wind speed and atmospheric pressure from the ERA-Interim reanalysis. There is generally a good agreement between simulated and observed sea level extremes in extra-tropical regions; however for areas prone to TCs there is a severe underestimation of extremes. For example, the maximum surge levels during Hurricane Katrina in New Orleans exceeded 8 m, whilst the GTSM surge levels in that area do not exceed 2-3 m. Hence, due to the coarse grid resolution, the strong intensities of TCs are not fully captured in ERA-Interim. Furthermore, the length of ERA-Interim data set, like other reanalysis datasets, is too short to estimate the probabilities of extreme TC events in a reliable way. For accurate risk assessments it is essential to improve the representation of TCs in these global reanalysis of extreme sea levels. First, we need a higher resolution of meteorological forcing, which can be modelled with input from the observed best track data. Second, we need to statistically extend the observed record to many thousands of years. We will present the first results of these steps for the east coast of the United States. We will validate the GTSM model forced with best track data using recent extreme events like Katrina and Sandy. We will investigate how the statistics of the extreme sea level will change due to improved representation of TCs.

Optimizing rehabilitation for adults with visual impairment: attention to life goals and their links to well-being.

PubMed

Boerner, Kathrin; Cimarolli, Verena R

2005-10-01

To examine the importance of different life goals among working-age adults with vision impairment, the extent to which vision impairment interfered with goals, and how rehabilitation addressed these life goals. Cross-sectional descriptive study. Vision rehabilitation agency. Working-age adults with visual impairment. Telephone interviews using structured and open-ended assessments of life goal importance, goal interference due to vision loss, the role of goals in rehabilitation, and indicators of well-being. Eighty-six people participated. The life domains most frequently rated as extremely important were finances (60), residential and domestic arrangements (55), family (51), partner (48), and personal care (48). The extent to which vision loss interferes with these life goals was extreme for finances (46), residential and domestic arrangements (36), partner (27), family (25), and personal care (14). A life goal was addressed in rehabilitation: residential/domestic arrangements (41), work (39), finances (31), leisure/hobbies (28), personal care (24), family (17), partner (16), friends (10), and religion/life philosophy (8). Reports of a life goal being addressed in ineffective ways emerged for functional life goals, but not for relationship and religion/life philosophy goals. Goal interference was significantly correlated with well-being indicators across life domains. In contrast only partner and family relationship importance were significantly linked with well-being indicators. Relationship-related goals were a top priority for this study population, but functional compared to relationship goals were more commonly addressed in vision rehabilitation services.

Changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in western central Africa, Guinea Conakry, and Zimbabwe, 1955-2006

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aguilar, E.; Aziz Barry, A.; Brunet, M.; Ekang, L.; Fernandes, A.; Massoukina, M.; Mbah, J.; Mhanda, A.; Do Nascimento, D. J.; Peterson, T. C.; Thamba Umba, O.; Tomou, M.; Zhang, X.

2009-01-01

Understanding how extremes are changing globally, regionally, and locally is an important first step for planning appropriate adaptation measures, as changes in extremes have major impacts. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's synthesis of global extremes was not able to say anything about western central Africa, as no analysis of the region was available nor was there an adequate internationally exchanged long-term daily data set available to use for analysis of extremes. This paper presents the first analysis of extremes in this climatically important region along with analysis of Guinea Conakry and Zimbabwe. As per many other parts of the world, the analysis shows a decrease in cold extremes and an increase in warm extremes. However, while the majority of the analyzed world has shown an increase in heavy precipitation over the last half century, central Africa showed a decrease. Furthermore, the companion analysis of Guinea Conakry and Zimbabwe showed no significant increases.

Genetic and life-history consequences of extreme climate events

PubMed Central

Mangel, Marc; Jesensek, Dusan; Garza, John Carlos; Crivelli, Alain J.

2017-01-01

Climate change is predicted to increase the frequency and intensity of extreme climate events. Tests on empirical data of theory-based predictions on the consequences of extreme climate events are thus necessary to understand the adaptive potential of species and the overarching risks associated with all aspects of climate change. We tested predictions on the genetic and life-history consequences of extreme climate events in two populations of marble trout Salmo marmoratus that have experienced severe demographic bottlenecks due to flash floods. We combined long-term field and genotyping data with pedigree reconstruction in a theory-based framework. Our results show that after flash floods, reproduction occurred at a younger age in one population. In both populations, we found the highest reproductive variance in the first cohort born after the floods due to a combination of fewer parents and higher early survival of offspring. A small number of parents allowed for demographic recovery after the floods, but the genetic bottleneck further reduced genetic diversity in both populations. Our results also elucidate some of the mechanisms responsible for a greater prevalence of faster life histories after the extreme event. PMID:28148745

An observational and modeling study of the August 2017 Florida climate extreme event.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Konduru, R.; Singh, V.; Routray, A.

2017-12-01

A special report on the climate extremes by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) elucidates that the sole cause of disasters is due to the exposure and vulnerability of the human and natural system to the climate extremes. The cause of such a climate extreme could be anthropogenic or non-anthropogenic. Therefore, it is challenging to discern the critical factor of influence for a particular climate extreme. Such kind of perceptive study with reasonable confidence on climate extreme events is possible only if there exist any past case studies. A similar rarest climate extreme problem encountered in the case of Houston floods and extreme rainfall over Florida in August 2017. A continuum of hurricanes like Harvey and Irma targeted the Florida region and caused catastrophe. Due to the rarity of August 2017 Florida climate extreme event, it requires the in-depth study on this case. To understand the multi-faceted nature of the event, a study on the development of the Harvey hurricane and its progression and dynamics is significant. Current article focus on the observational and modeling study on the Harvey hurricane. A global model named as NCUM (The global UK Met office Unified Model (UM) operational at National Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting, India, was utilized to simulate the Harvey hurricane. The simulated rainfall and wind fields were compared with the observational datasets like Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission rainfall datasets and Era-Interim wind fields. The National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) automated tracking system was utilized to track the Harvey hurricane, and the tracks were analyzed statistically for different forecasts concerning the Harvey hurricane track of Joint Typhon Warning Centre. Further, the current study will be continued to investigate the atmospheric processes involved in the August 2017 Florida climate extreme event.

The Association Between Extreme Precipitation and Waterborne Disease Outbreaks in the United States, 1948–1994

PubMed Central

Curriero, Frank C.; Patz, Jonathan A.; Rose, Joan B.; Lele, Subhash

2001-01-01

Objectives. Rainfall and runoff have been implicated in site-specific waterborne disease outbreaks. Because upward trends in heavy precipitation in the United States are projected to increase with climate change, this study sought to quantify the relationship between precipitation and disease outbreaks. Methods. The US Environmental Protection Agency waterborne disease database, totaling 548 reported outbreaks from 1948 through 1994, and precipitation data of the National Climatic Data Center were used to analyze the relationship between precipitation and waterborne diseases. Analyses were at the watershed level, stratified by groundwater and surface water contamination and controlled for effects due to season and hydrologic region. A Monte Carlo version of the Fisher exact test was used to test for statistical significance. Results. Fifty-one percent of waterborne disease outbreaks were preceded by precipitation events above the 90th percentile (P = .002), and 68% by events above the 80th percentile (P = .001). Outbreaks due to surface water contamination showed the strongest association with extreme precipitation during the month of the outbreak; a 2-month lag applied to groundwater contamination events. Conclusions. The statistically significant association found between rainfall and disease in the United States is important for water managers, public health officials, and risk assessors of future climate change. PMID:11499103

Hypothalamic obesity after treatment for craniopharyngioma: the importance of the home environment.

PubMed

Meijneke, Ruud W H; Schouten-van Meeteren, Antoinette Y N; de Boer, Nienke Y; van Zundert, Suzanne; van Trotsenburg, Paul A S; Stoelinga, Femke; van Santen, Hanneke M

2015-01-01

Hypothalamic obesity after treatment for craniopharyngioma is a well-recognized, severe problem. Treatment of hypothalamic obesity is difficult and often frustrating for the patient, the parents and the professional care-giver. Because hypothalamic obesity is caused by an underlying medical disorder, it is often assumed that regular diet and exercise are not beneficial to reduce the extraordinarily high body mass index, and in fact, lifestyle interventions have been shown to be insufficient in case of extreme hypothalamic obesity. Nevertheless, it is important to realize that also in this situation, informal care delivered by the family and appropriate parenting styles are required to minimize the obesity problem. We present a case in which weight gain in the home situation was considered unstoppable, and a very early mortality due to complications of the severe increasing obesity was considered inevitable. A permissive approach toward food intake became leading with rapid weight increase since a restrictive lifestyle was considered a senseless burden for the child. By admission to our hospital for a longer period of time, weight reduction was realized, and the merely permissive approach could be changed into active purposeful care by adequate information, instruction, guidance and encouragement of the affected child and her parents. This case illustrates that, although this type of obesity has a pathological origin, parental and environmental influences remain of extreme importance.

A SNP test to identify Africanized honeybees via proportion of 'African' ancestry.

PubMed

Chapman, Nadine C; Harpur, Brock A; Lim, Julianne; Rinderer, Thomas E; Allsopp, Michael H; Zayed, Amro; Oldroyd, Benjamin P

2015-11-01

The honeybee, Apis mellifera, is the world's most important pollinator and is ubiquitous in most agricultural ecosystems. Four major evolutionary lineages and at least 24 subspecies are recognized. Commercial populations are mainly derived from subspecies originating in Europe (75-95%). The Africanized honeybee is a New World hybrid of A. m. scutellata from Africa and European subspecies, with the African component making up 50-90% of the genome. Africanized honeybees are considered undesirable for bee-keeping in most countries, due to their extreme defensiveness and poor honey production. The international trade in honeybees is restricted, due in part to bans on the importation of queens (and semen) from countries where Africanized honeybees are extant. Some desirable strains from the United States of America that have been bred for traits such as resistance to the mite Varroa destructor are unfortunately excluded from export to countries such as Australia due to the presence of Africanized honeybees in the USA. This study shows that a panel of 95 single nucleotide polymorphisms, chosen to differentiate between the African, Eastern European and Western European lineages, can detect Africanized honeybees with a high degree of confidence via ancestry assignment. Our panel therefore offers a valuable tool to mitigate the risks of spreading Africanized honeybees across the globe and may enable the resumption of queen and bee semen imports from the Americas. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Determination of technetium-99 in environmental samples: a review.

PubMed

Shi, Keliang; Hou, Xiaolin; Roos, Per; Wu, Wangsuo

2012-01-04

Due to the lack of a stable technetium isotope, and the high mobility and long half-life, (99)Tc is considered to be one of the most important radionuclides in safety assessment of environmental radioactivity as well as nuclear waste management. (99)Tc is also an important tracer for oceanographic research due to the high technetium solubility in seawater as TcO(4)(-). A number of analytical methods, using chemical separation combined with radiometric and mass spectrometric measurement techniques, have been developed over the past decades for determination of (99)Tc in different environmental samples. This article summarizes and compares recently reported chemical separation procedures and measurement methods for determination of (99)Tc. Due to the extremely low concentration of (99)Tc in environmental samples, the sample preparation, pre-concentration, chemical separation and purification for removal of the interferences for detection of (99)Tc are the most important issues governing the accurate determination of (99)Tc. These aspects are discussed in detail in this article. Meanwhile, the different measurement techniques for (99)Tc are also compared with respect to advantages and drawbacks. Novel automated analytical methods for rapid determination of (99)Tc using solid extraction or ion exchange chromatography for separation of (99)Tc, employing flow injection or sequential injection approaches are also discussed. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The importance of range edges for an irruptive species during extreme weather events

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bateman, Brooke L.; Pidgeon, Anna M.; Radeloff, Volker C.; Allstadt, Andrew J.; Akçakaya, H. Resit; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Vavrus, Stephen J.; Heglund, Patricia J.

2015-01-01

In a changing climate where more frequent extreme weather may be more common, conservation strategies for weather-sensitive species may require consideration of habitat in the edges of species’ ranges, even though non-core areas may be unoccupied in ‘normal’ years. Our results highlight the conservation importance of range edges in providing refuge from extreme events, such as drought, and climate change.

Effects of Degree of Curing on Fire Spread

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chaivaranont, W.; Evans, J. P.; Liu, Y.

2016-12-01

During extreme summer conditions in Australia, bushfire can become an uncontrollable natural hazard. Various factors, such as geographical and meteorological parameters greatly influence the magnitude of bushfire. In a grassland fire, there is an important factor that affects the severity of fire called the degree of curing. Degree of curing is a percentage measurement of the proportion of dead material in grassland where a 100% curing indicates a totally dead grass field. It is usually assumed constant due to the cost and difficulty in obtaining accurate field observations.To examine the importance of curing, the Phoenix RapidFire fire spread model was used to observe the magnitude and direction of grassland fire spread due to variations in the degree of curing. Idealised experiments and experiments based on 3 past fire events in Australia were conducted, where the 100 by 200 km study area is considered to be all grassland. In the idealised experiments, homogeneous curing data in various patterns were used along with extreme climate data and prescribed topography. In the past fire event experiments, satellite-derived estimated curing data, observed climate data from the nearest weather stations, and real elevation maps were used. A remotely sensed burned area map (MODIS MCD64A1 product) is also used to compare the simulated burned area of past fire events with the satellite observation.The results from both experiments showed that: 1) the rate of spread of grassland fire is significantly impeded when curing is below 75%, 2) topography has insignificant effect on fire spread direction and speed, 3) wind and curing both influence the direction and speed of spread, and 4) the model can only recreate the burned area in one out of three of the past fire events due to various causes including the fact that all past events used here were not exclusively grassland fire.

Changing population dynamics and uneven temperature emergence combine to exacerbate regional exposure to heat extremes under 1.5 °C and 2 °C of warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harrington, Luke J.; Otto, Friederike E. L.

2018-03-01

Understanding how continuing increases in global mean temperature will exacerbate societal exposure to extreme weather events is a question of profound importance. However, determining population exposure to the impacts of heat extremes at 1.5 °C and 2 °C of global mean warming requires not only (1) a robust understanding of the physical climate system response, but also consideration of (2) projected changes to overall population size, as well as (3) changes to where people will live in the future. This analysis introduces a new framework, adapted from studies of probabilistic event attribution, to disentangle the relative importance of regional climate emergence and changing population dynamics in the exposure to future heat extremes across multiple densely populated regions in Southern Asia and Eastern Africa (SAEA). Our results reveal that, when population is kept at 2015 levels, exposure to heat considered severe in the present decade across SAEA will increase by a factor of 4.1 (2.4-9.6) and 15.8 (5.0-135) under a 1.5°- and 2.0°-warmer world, respectively. Furthermore, projected population changes by the end of the century under an SSP1 and SSP2 scenario can further exacerbate these changes by a factor of 1.2 (1.0-1.3) and 1.5 (1.3-1.7), respectively. However, a large fraction of this additional risk increase is not related to absolute increases in population, but instead attributed to changes in which regions exhibit continued population growth into the future. Further, this added impact of population redistribution will be twice as significant after 2.0 °C of warming, relative to stabilisation at 1.5 °C, due to the non-linearity of increases in heat exposure. Irrespective of the population scenario considered, continued African population expansion will place more people in locations where emergent changes to future heat extremes are exceptionally severe.

A rare case of spontaneous Aspergillus spondylodiscitis with epidural abscess in a 45-year-old immunocompetent female

PubMed Central

Raj, K. Ambedkar; Srinivasamurthy, Banushree C.; Nagarajan, Krishnan; Sinduja, M. G. Ilavarasi

2013-01-01

Vertebral osteomyelitis and discitis are mainly due to bacterial infections though fungal infections are one of the important causes of morbidity and mortality in immunocompromised patients. Aspergillus involving intervertebral disc space is extremely rare. We report a case of aspergillosis of intervertebral L5-S1 disc space with spinal epidural abscess in an immunocompetent 45-year-old female which can add on to a few case reports described in literature as well as an insight for clinicians regarding this rare spontaneous infection in an immunocompetent patient. PMID:24744568

A rare case of spontaneous Aspergillus spondylodiscitis with epidural abscess in a 45-year-old immunocompetent female.

PubMed

Raj, K Ambedkar; Srinivasamurthy, Banushree C; Nagarajan, Krishnan; Sinduja, M G Ilavarasi

2013-07-01

Vertebral osteomyelitis and discitis are mainly due to bacterial infections though fungal infections are one of the important causes of morbidity and mortality in immunocompromised patients. Aspergillus involving intervertebral disc space is extremely rare. We report a case of aspergillosis of intervertebral L5-S1 disc space with spinal epidural abscess in an immunocompetent 45-year-old female which can add on to a few case reports described in literature as well as an insight for clinicians regarding this rare spontaneous infection in an immunocompetent patient.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sorokina, Veronika, E-mail: ansonika@mail.ru; Nikiforov, Konstantin, E-mail: knikiforov@cc.spbu.ru

Studying emission characteristics of nanotubes is extremely important for development of electronics. Compared to other electron sources nanotube-based field emitters allow obtaining significant emission currents at relatively low values of the applied field. It is possible due to their unique structure. This article is devoted to theoretical investigation how external electric field effects several samples of open single-wall nanotubes from carbon and silicon carbide. Total energies, dipole moments and band gaps for five types of nanotubes were calculated from the first principles. The numerical experiment results indicate the adequacy of modeling. It was concluded that considered configurations of achiral carbonmore » nanotubes should be semiconductors.« less

[Paralysis, organic brain syndrome, and cardiac dysrhythmias caused by chronic laxative abuse (author's transl)].

PubMed

Dahlmann, W; Volles, E; Lüderitz, B

1977-10-28

A 39-year-old woman developed generalised paralysis, reversible organic brain syndrome, and cardiac dysrhythmias after 15 years of laxative abuse. Under continuous and cautious administration of potassium the cardiac rhythm became normal within four days and two days later the paralysis and organic brain syndrome almost disappeared. The cause of the psychiatric symptoms is thought to be cerebral potassium deficiency and an abnormal sodium/potassium equilibrium. Other clinical signs and symptoms due to extreme potassium depletion are presented. The importance of Na+/K+-activated membrane ATP-ase in myocardium and CNS is discussed.

Recent advances in genetic modification systems for Actinobacteria.

PubMed

Deng, Yu; Zhang, Xi; Zhang, Xiaojuan

2017-03-01

Actinobacteria are extremely important to human health, agriculture, and forests. Because of the vast differences of the characteristics of Actinobacteria, a lot of genetic tools have been developed for efficiently manipulating the genetics. Although there are a lot of successful examples of engineering Actinobacteria, they are still more difficult to be genetically manipulated than other model microorganisms such as Saccharomyces cerevisiae, Escherichia coli, and Bacillus subtilis etc. due to the diverse genomics and biochemical machinery. Here, we review the methods to introduce heterologous DNA into Actinobacteria and the available genetic modification tools. The trends and problems existing in engineering Actinobacteria are also covered.

Rainfall variability and extremes over southern Africa: Assessment of a climate model to reproduce daily extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, C. J. R.; Kniveton, D. R.; Layberry, R.

2009-04-01

It is increasingly accepted that that any possible climate change will not only have an influence on mean climate but may also significantly alter climatic variability. A change in the distribution and magnitude of extreme rainfall events (associated with changing variability), such as droughts or flooding, may have a far greater impact on human and natural systems than a changing mean. This issue is of particular importance for environmentally vulnerable regions such as southern Africa. The subcontinent is considered especially vulnerable to and ill-equipped (in terms of adaptation) for extreme events, due to a number of factors including extensive poverty, famine, disease and political instability. Rainfall variability and the identification of rainfall extremes is a function of scale, so high spatial and temporal resolution data are preferred to identify extreme events and accurately predict future variability. The majority of previous climate model verification studies have compared model output with observational data at monthly timescales. In this research, the assessment of ability of a state of the art climate model to simulate climate at daily timescales is carried out using satellite derived rainfall data from the Microwave Infra-Red Algorithm (MIRA). This dataset covers the period from 1993-2002 and the whole of southern Africa at a spatial resolution of 0.1 degree longitude/latitude. The ability of a climate model to simulate current climate provides some indication of how much confidence can be applied to its future predictions. In this paper, simulations of current climate from the UK Meteorological Office Hadley Centre's climate model, in both regional and global mode, are firstly compared to the MIRA dataset at daily timescales. This concentrates primarily on the ability of the model to simulate the spatial and temporal patterns of rainfall variability over southern Africa. Secondly, the ability of the model to reproduce daily rainfall extremes will be assessed, again by a comparison with extremes from the MIRA dataset. The paper will conclude by discussing the user needs of satellite rainfall retrievals from a climate change modelling prospective.

Assessment of a climate model to reproduce rainfall variability and extremes over Southern Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, C. J. R.; Kniveton, D. R.; Layberry, R.

2010-01-01

It is increasingly accepted that any possible climate change will not only have an influence on mean climate but may also significantly alter climatic variability. A change in the distribution and magnitude of extreme rainfall events (associated with changing variability), such as droughts or flooding, may have a far greater impact on human and natural systems than a changing mean. This issue is of particular importance for environmentally vulnerable regions such as southern Africa. The sub-continent is considered especially vulnerable to and ill-equipped (in terms of adaptation) for extreme events, due to a number of factors including extensive poverty, famine, disease and political instability. Rainfall variability and the identification of rainfall extremes is a function of scale, so high spatial and temporal resolution data are preferred to identify extreme events and accurately predict future variability. The majority of previous climate model verification studies have compared model output with observational data at monthly timescales. In this research, the assessment of ability of a state of the art climate model to simulate climate at daily timescales is carried out using satellite-derived rainfall data from the Microwave Infrared Rainfall Algorithm (MIRA). This dataset covers the period from 1993 to 2002 and the whole of southern Africa at a spatial resolution of 0.1° longitude/latitude. This paper concentrates primarily on the ability of the model to simulate the spatial and temporal patterns of present-day rainfall variability over southern Africa and is not intended to discuss possible future changes in climate as these have been documented elsewhere. Simulations of current climate from the UK Meteorological Office Hadley Centre's climate model, in both regional and global mode, are firstly compared to the MIRA dataset at daily timescales. Secondly, the ability of the model to reproduce daily rainfall extremes is assessed, again by a comparison with extremes from the MIRA dataset. The results suggest that the model reproduces the number and spatial distribution of rainfall extremes with some accuracy, but that mean rainfall and rainfall variability is under-estimated (over-estimated) over wet (dry) regions of southern Africa.

AgroClimate: Simulating and Monitoring the Risk of Extreme Weather Events from a Crop Phenology Perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fraisse, C.; Pequeno, D.; Staub, C. G.; Perry, C.

2016-12-01

Climate variability, particularly the occurrence of extreme weather conditions such as dry spells and heat stress during sensitive crop developmental phases can substantially increase the prospect of reduced crop yields. Yield losses or crop failure risk due to stressful weather conditions vary mainly due to stress severity and exposure time and duration. The magnitude of stress effects is also crop specific, differing in terms of thresholds and adaptation to environmental conditions. To help producers in the Southeast USA mitigate and monitor the risk of crop losses due to extreme weather events we developed a web-based tool that evaluates the risk of extreme weather events during the season taking into account the crop development stages. Producers can enter their plans for the upcoming season in a given field (e.g. crop, variety, planting date, acreage etc.), select or not a specific El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phase, and will be presented with the probabilities (ranging from 0 -100%) of extreme weather events occurring during sensitive phases of the growing season for the selected conditions. The DSSAT models CERES-Maize, CROPGRO-Soybean, CROPGRO-Cotton, and N-Wheat phenology models have been translated from FORTRAN to a standalone versions in R language. These models have been tested in collaboration with Extension faculty and producers during the 2016 season and their usefulness for risk mitigation and monitoring evaluated. A companion AgroClimate app was also developed to help producers track and monitor phenology development during the cropping season.

Estimating the Effect of Climate Change on Crop Yields and Farmland Values: The Importance of Extreme Temperatures

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This is a presentation titled Estimating the Effect of Climate Change on Crop Yields and Farmland Values: The Importance of Extreme Temperatures that was given for the National Center for Environmental Economics

Epidemiology of ocular toxoplasmosis.

PubMed

Petersen, Eskild; Kijlstra, Aize; Stanford, Miles

2012-04-01

Retinal infection with Toxoplasma gondii is the most important cause of posterior uveitis, whereby prevalence and incidence of ocular symptoms after infection depend on socio-economic factors and the circulating parasite genotypes. Ocular toxoplasmosis is more common in South America, Central America, and the Caribbean and parts of tropical Africa as compared to Europe and Northern America, and is quite rare in China. Ocular disease in South America is more severe than in other continents due to the presence of extremely virulent genotypes of the parasite. Drinking untreated water is considered the major source of Toxoplasma infection in developing countries, whereas in the Western world the consumption of raw or undercooked meat (products) is the most important cause. Since acquired infection with T. gondii is currently a more important cause of ocular toxoplasmosis compared to congenital infection, prevention should be directed not only toward pregnant women but toward the general population.

Acoustic perfect absorber based on metasurface with deep sub-wavelength thickness (Conference Presentation)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Assouar, Badreddine; Li, Yong

2016-04-01

The concept of the coiling up space, based on which artificial structures could exhibit extreme acoustic properties, such as high refractive index, double negativity, near-zero index, etc., have been investigated intensively recently due to the fascinating underlying physics and diverse potential applications [1-3]. One of the most important functionality is the ability to shrink bulky structures into deep sub-wavelength scale. It is therefore intuitive to prospect that the concept of coiling up space, if could be extended into the perforated system, will benefit to significantly reduce the total thickness while keeping total absorption. Conventional acoustic absorbers require a structure with a thickness comparable to the working wavelength, resulting major obstacles in real applications in low frequency range. We present a metasurface-based perfect absorber capable of achieving the total absorption of acoustic wave in extremely low frequency region. The metasurface possessing a deep sub-wavelength thickness down to a feature size of ~ lambda/223 is composed of a perforated plate and a coiled coplanar air chamber. Simulations based on fully coupled acoustic with thermodynamic equations and theoretical impedance analysis are utilized to reveal the underlying physics and the acoustic performances, showing an excellent agreement. Our realization should have high impact on amount of applications due to the extremely thin thickness, easy fabrication and high efficiency of the proposed structure. References 1. Z. Liang and J. Li, Phys. Rev. Lett. 108, 114301 (2012). 2. Y. Li, B. Liang, X. Tao, X. F. Zhu, X. Y. Zou, and J. C. Cheng, Appl. Phys. Lett. 101, 233508 (2012). 3. Y. Xie, W. Wang, H. Chen, A. Konneker, B. I. Popa, and S. A. Cummer, Nat. Commun. 5, 5553 (2014).

Inconsistent Responses of Hot Extremes to Historical Land Use and Cover Change Among the Selected CMIP5 Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Xing; Chen, Haishan; Wei, Jiangfeng; Hua, Wenjian; Sun, Shanlei; Ma, Hedi; Li, Xiao; Li, Jingping

2018-04-01

Land use and cover change (LUCC) is an important anthropogenic forcing of the climate system. Previous studies have demonstrated that LUCC significantly impacts both mean and extreme temperatures. In this study, we explored the multimodel performance of simulating LUCC-induced asymmetric effects on the different percentiles of maximum temperatures (Tmax) as well as the possible reasons for these effects using results from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Four state-of-art Earth system models (which provide the necessary data) are selected for investigating this issue. In general, all the cases of the model from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory show robust asymmetric responses between the 90th (TX90P) and 10th percentiles (TX10P) of Tmax, mainly due to cropland expansions, especially over India, the Sahel, and some parts of North America. However, weak and insignificant responses are shown for both the TX90P and TX10P in other models. The different changes in the Tmax variability among the models are primarily responsible for the occurrence of asymmetric features. Furthermore, by decomposing the Tmax changes over three typical regions, we analyze the potential causes for the inconsistencies among these models' results and find two crucial processes, that is, the repartitioning of the turbulent heat fluxes and the changes of the diurnal cycle variability due to LUCC. Whether these processes are pronounced determines the occurrence of the asymmetric Tmax responses. Overall, this study provides a critical clue for reducing the uncertainties of the LUCC effects on temperature extremes, which should be evaluated against observations.

Risk factors, management and primary prevention of thrombotic complications related to the use of central venous catheters.

PubMed

Linnemann, Birgit; Lindhoff-Last, Edelgard

2012-09-01

An adequate vascular access is of importance for the treatment of patients with cancer and complex illnesses in the intensive, perioperative or palliative care setting. Deep vein thrombosis and thrombotic occlusion are the most common complications attributed to central venous catheters in short-term and, especially, in long-term use. In this review we will focus on the risk factors, management and prevention strategies of catheter-related thrombosis and occlusion. Due to the lack of randomised controlled trials, there is still controversy about the optimal treatment of catheter-related thrombotic complications, and therapy has been widely adopted using the evidence concerning lower extremity deep vein thrombosis. Given the increasing use of central venous catheters in patients that require long-term intravenous therapy, the problem of upper extremity deep venous thrombosis can be expected to increase in the future. We provide data for establishing a more uniform strategy for preventing, diagnosing and treating catheter-related thrombotic complications.

Contamination Effects on EUV Optics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tveekrem, J.

1999-01-01

During ground-based assembly and upon exposure to the space environment, optical surfaces accumulate both particles and molecular condensibles, inevitably resulting in degradation of optical instrument performance. Currently, this performance degradation (and the resulting end-of-life instrument performance) cannot be predicted with sufficient accuracy using existing software tools. Optical design codes exist to calculate instrument performance, but these codes generally assume uncontaminated optical surfaces. Contamination models exist which predict approximate end-of-life contamination levels, but the optical effects of these contamination levels can not be quantified without detailed information about the optical constants and scattering properties of the contaminant. The problem is particularly pronounced in the extreme ultraviolet (EUV, 300-1,200 A) and far (FUV, 1,200-2,000 A) regimes due to a lack of data and a lack of knowledge of the detailed physical and chemical processes involved. Yet it is in precisely these wavelength regimes that accurate predictions are most important, because EUV/FUV instruments are extremely sensitive to contamination.

Decadal predictability of river discharge with climate oscillations over the 20th and early 21st century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wanders, Niko; Wada, Yoshihide

2015-12-01

Long-term hydrological forecasts are important to increase our resilience and preparedness to extreme hydrological events. The skill in these forecasts is still limited due to large uncertainties inherent in hydrological models and poor predictability of long-term meteorological conditions. Here we show that strong (lagged) correlations exist between four different major climate oscillation modes and modeled and observed discharge anomalies over a 100 year period. The strongest correlations are found between the El Niño-Southern Oscillation signal and river discharge anomalies all year round, while North Atlantic Oscillation and Antarctic Oscillation time series are strongly correlated with winter discharge anomalies. The correlation signal is significant for periods up to 5 years for some regions, indicating a high added value of this information for long-term hydrological forecasting. The results suggest that long-term hydrological forecasting could be significantly improved by including the climate oscillation signals and thus improve our preparedness for hydrological extremes in the near future.

Pro: Heat stress as a potential etiology of Mesoamerican and Sri Lankan nephropathy: a late night consult with Sherlock Holmes

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

ABSTRACT Epidemics of chronic kidney disease are now recognized in Central America, Mexico, India and Sri Lanka, and there is also some evidence that similar epidemics may be occurring in the USA, Thailand and elsewhere. A common denominator for each location is manually working outside in extremely hot environments. Here we review the evidence that the primary etiology may be heat stress related to repeated subclinical or clinical acute kidney injury that eventually manifests as chronic kidney disease. In some aspects, the disease may manifest as subclinical heat stroke, subclinical rhabdomyolysis or a subclinical tumor lysis syndrome. While toxins could be involved, it would be difficult to attribute this as a main mechanism, given the wide range of occupations and geographic regions manifesting this disease. While some of the epidemics may be due to better reporting, we believe the most important reasons are increasing heat extremes (heat waves) coupled with hydration with sugary or, less commonly, alcoholic beverages. PMID:28407135

Extremely Low Frequency Electromagnetic Fields impair the Cognitive and Motor Abilities of Honey Bees.

PubMed

Shepherd, S; Lima, M A P; Oliveira, E E; Sharkh, S M; Jackson, C W; Newland, P L

2018-05-21

Extremely low frequency electromagnetic field (ELF EMF) pollution from overhead powerlines is known to cause biological effects across many phyla, but these effects are poorly understood. Honey bees are important pollinators across the globe and due to their foraging flights are exposed to relatively high levels of ELF EMF in proximity to powerlines. Here we ask how acute exposure to 50 Hz ELF EMFs at levels ranging from 20-100 µT, found at ground level below powerline conductors, to 1000-7000 µT, found within 1 m of the conductors, affects honey bee olfactory learning, flight, foraging activity and feeding. ELF EMF exposure was found to reduce learning, alter flight dynamics, reduce the success of foraging flights towards food sources, and feeding. The results suggest that 50 Hz ELF EMFs emitted from powerlines may represent a prominent environmental stressor for honey bees, with the potential to impact on their cognitive and motor abilities, which could in turn reduce their ability to pollinate crops.

Estimating missing daily temperature extremes in Jaffna, Sri Lanka

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thevakaran, A.; Sonnadara, D. U. J.

2018-04-01

The accuracy of reconstructing missing daily temperature extremes in the Jaffna climatological station, situated in the northern part of the dry zone of Sri Lanka, is presented. The adopted method utilizes standard departures of daily maximum and minimum temperature values at four neighbouring stations, Mannar, Anuradhapura, Puttalam and Trincomalee to estimate the standard departures of daily maximum and minimum temperatures at the target station, Jaffna. The daily maximum and minimum temperatures from 1966 to 1980 (15 years) were used to test the validity of the method. The accuracy of the estimation is higher for daily maximum temperature compared to daily minimum temperature. About 95% of the estimated daily maximum temperatures are within ±1.5 °C of the observed values. For daily minimum temperature, the percentage is about 92. By calculating the standard deviation of the difference in estimated and observed values, we have shown that the error in estimating the daily maximum and minimum temperatures is ±0.7 and ±0.9 °C, respectively. To obtain the best accuracy when estimating the missing daily temperature extremes, it is important to include Mannar which is the nearest station to the target station, Jaffna. We conclude from the analysis that the method can be applied successfully to reconstruct the missing daily temperature extremes in Jaffna where no data is available due to frequent disruptions caused by civil unrests and hostilities in the region during the period, 1984 to 2000.

Medical homicide and extreme negligence.

PubMed

Duncanson, Emily; Richards, Virginia; Luce, Kasey M; Gill, James R

2009-03-01

Deaths that occur during medical care for the treatment of a disease are rarely certified as homicides. Some "medical" deaths, however, have been criminally prosecuted for manslaughter, reckless endangerment, or reckless homicide. We describe 5 deaths due to medical complications that underwent criminal prosecution. Three of the deaths were certified as homicides. Deaths certified as homicides due to the actions (or inactions) of a caregiver occur in 3 circumstances. The first is when the medical caregiver intentionally causes the death of the patient. The second is a death due to treatment by an unlicensed fraud or quack. The final circumstance is due to extreme medical negligence that involves a gross and wanton disregard for the well-being of the patient and is the most controversial in the medical community. The law defines reckless endangerment as the conscious disregard of a known substantial likelihood of injury to the patient. Criminal neglect typically is defined as the failure to provide timely, safe, adequate, and appropriate services, treatment, and/or care to a patient. In instances of extreme medical negligence, a homicide manner of death is appropriate because the fatality is due to the criminal acts (or inactions) of another. It also furthers one of the major goals of the medicolegal death investigation system, which is to safeguard the public health.

Regional frequency analysis of extreme rainfall for the Baltimore Metropolitan region based on stochastic storm transposition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Z.; Smith, J. A.; Yang, L.; Baeck, M. L.; Wright, D.; Liu, S.

2017-12-01

Regional frequency analyses of extreme rainfall are critical for development of engineering hydrometeorology procedures. In conventional approaches, the assumptions that `design storms' have specified time profiles and are uniform in space are commonly applied but often not appropriate, especially over regions with heterogeneous environments (due to topography, water-land boundaries and land surface properties). In this study, we present regional frequency analyses of extreme rainfall for Baltimore study region combining storm catalogs of rainfall fields derived from weather radar and stochastic storm transposition (SST, developed by Wright et al., 2013). The study region is Dead Run, a small (14.3 km2) urban watershed, in the Baltimore Metropolitan region. Our analyses build on previous empirical and modeling studies showing pronounced spatial heterogeneities in rainfall due to the complex terrain, including the Chesapeake Bay to the east, mountainous terrain to the west and urbanization in this region. We expand the original SST approach by applying a multiplier field that accounts for spatial heterogeneities in extreme rainfall. We also characterize the spatial heterogeneities of extreme rainfall distribution through analyses of rainfall fields in the storm catalogs. We examine the characteristics of regional extreme rainfall and derive intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves using the SST approach for heterogeneous regions. Our results highlight the significant heterogeneity of extreme rainfall in this region. Estimates of IDF show the advantages of SST in capturing the space-time structure of extreme rainfall. We also illustrate application of SST analyses for flood frequency analyses using a distributed hydrological model. Reference: Wright, D. B., J. A. Smith, G. Villarini, and M. L. Baeck (2013), Estimating the frequency of extreme rainfall using weather radar and stochastic storm transposition, J. Hydrol., 488, 150-165.

Intellectual Property: a powerful tool to develop biotech research

PubMed Central

Giugni, Diego; Giugni, Valter

2010-01-01

Summary Today biotechnology is perhaps the most important technology field because of the strong health and food implications. However, due to the nature of said technology, there is the need of a huge amount of investments to sustain the experimentation costs. Consequently, investors aim to safeguard as much as possible their investments. Intellectual Property, and in particular patents, has been demonstrated to actually constitute a powerful tool to help them. Moreover, patents represent an extremely important means to disclose biotechnology inventions. Patentable biotechnology inventions involve products as nucleotide and amino acid sequences, microorganisms, processes or methods for modifying said products, uses for the manufacture of medicaments, etc. There are several ways to protect inventions, but all follow the three main patentability requirements: novelty, inventive step and industrial application. PMID:21255349

Chemical Analysis of Nutritional Content of Prickly Pads (Opuntia ficus indica) at Varied Ages in an Organic Harvest

PubMed Central

Hernández-Urbiola, Margarita I.; Pérez-Torrero, Esther; Rodríguez-García, Mario E.

2011-01-01

Opuntia ficus indica, also known as prickly pads, are an important part of the human diet and are also used as forage for livestock. This is an interesting vegetable due the environmental conditions in which it grows and its resistance to climatic extremes; however, little is known about its nutritional properties, especially in the later stages of maturity. The objective of this study was to determine the composition of organic prickly pads (Opuntia ficus indica) at differing stages of growth maturity. Chemical proximate analysis and mineral constituent analysis at different maturation stages were carried out in this investigation. As a result, older prickly pads were found to be an important source of nutritional components such as calcium. PMID:21655119

Vital Pulp Therapy—Current Progress of Dental Pulp Regeneration and Revascularization

PubMed Central

Zhang, Weibo; Yelick, Pamela C.

2010-01-01

Pulp vitality is extremely important for the tooth viability, since it provides nutrition and acts as biosensor to detect pathogenic stimuli. In the dental clinic, most dental pulp infections are irreversible due to its anatomical position and organization. It is difficult for the body to eliminate the infection, which subsequently persists and worsens. The widely used strategy currently in the clinic is to partly or fully remove the contaminated pulp tissue, and fill and seal the void space with synthetic material. Over time, the pulpless tooth, now lacking proper blood supply and nervous system, becomes more vulnerable to injury. Recently, potential for successful pulp regeneration and revascularization therapies is increasing due to accumulated knowledge of stem cells, especially dental pulp stem cells. This paper will review current progress and feasible strategies for dental pulp regeneration and revascularization. PMID:20454445

Guidelines on Lithium-ion Battery Use in Space Applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mckissock, Barbara; Loyselle, Patricia; Vogel, Elisa

2009-01-01

This guideline discusses a standard approach for defining, determining, and addressing safety, handling, and qualification standards for lithium-ion (Li-Ion) batteries to help the implementation of the technology in aerospace applications. Information from a variety of other sources relating to Li-ion batteries and their aerospace uses has been collected and included in this document. The sources used are listed in the reference section at the end of this document. The Li-Ion chemistry is highly energetic due to its inherent high specific energy and its flammable electrolyte. Due to the extreme importance of appropriate design, test, and hazard control of Li-ion batteries, it is recommended that all Government and industry users and vendors of this technology for space applications, especially involving humans, use this document for appropriate guidance prior to implementing the technology.

The Society for Vascular Surgery Lower Extremity Threatened Limb Classification System: risk stratification based on wound, ischemia, and foot infection (WIfI).

PubMed

Mills, Joseph L; Conte, Michael S; Armstrong, David G; Pomposelli, Frank B; Schanzer, Andres; Sidawy, Anton N; Andros, George

2014-01-01

Critical limb ischemia, first defined in 1982, was intended to delineate a subgroup of patients with a threatened lower extremity primarily because of chronic ischemia. It was the intent of the original authors that patients with diabetes be excluded or analyzed separately. The Fontaine and Rutherford Systems have been used to classify risk of amputation and likelihood of benefit from revascularization by subcategorizing patients into two groups: ischemic rest pain and tissue loss. Due to demographic shifts over the last 40 years, especially a dramatic rise in the incidence of diabetes mellitus and rapidly expanding techniques of revascularization, it has become increasingly difficult to perform meaningful outcomes analysis for patients with threatened limbs using these existing classification systems. Particularly in patients with diabetes, limb threat is part of a broad disease spectrum. Perfusion is only one determinant of outcome; wound extent and the presence and severity of infection also greatly impact the threat to a limb. Therefore, the Society for Vascular Surgery Lower Extremity Guidelines Committee undertook the task of creating a new classification of the threatened lower extremity that reflects these important considerations. We term this new framework, the Society for Vascular Surgery Lower Extremity Threatened Limb Classification System. Risk stratification is based on three major factors that impact amputation risk and clinical management: Wound, Ischemia, and foot Infection (WIfI). The implementation of this classification system is intended to permit more meaningful analysis of outcomes for various forms of therapy in this challenging, but heterogeneous population. Copyright © 2014 Society for Vascular Surgery. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

Rainfall variability over southern Africa: an overview of current research using satellite and climate model data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, C.; Kniveton, D.; Layberry, R.

2009-04-01

It is increasingly accepted that any possible climate change will not only have an influence on mean climate but may also significantly alter climatic variability. A change in the distribution and magnitude of extreme rainfall events (associated with changing variability), such as droughts or flooding, may have a far greater impact on human and natural systems than a changing mean. This issue is of particular importance for environmentally vulnerable regions such as southern Africa. The subcontinent is considered especially vulnerable to and ill-equipped (in terms of adaptation) for extreme events, due to a number of factors including extensive poverty, famine, disease and political instability. Rainfall variability is a function of scale, so high spatial and temporal resolution data are preferred to identify extreme events and accurately predict future variability. In this research, satellite-derived rainfall data are used as a basis for undertaking model experiments using a state-of-the-art climate model, run at both high and low spatial resolution. Once the model's ability to reproduce extremes has been assessed, idealised regions of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies are used to force the model, with the overall aim of investigating the ways in which SST anomalies influence rainfall extremes over southern Africa. In this paper, a brief overview is given of the authors' research to date, pertaining to southern African rainfall. This covers (i) a description of present-day rainfall variability over southern Africa; (ii) a comparison of model simulated daily rainfall with the satellite-derived dataset; (iii) results from sensitivity testing of the model's domain size; and (iv) results from the idealised SST experiments.

Delayed and reduced carbon uptake in a subarctic peatland following an extreme winter event

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parmentier, F. J. W.; Rasse, D. P.; Lund, M.; Bjerke, J. W.; Drake, B. G.; Weldon, S.; Tømmervik, H. A.; Hansen, G.

2017-12-01

An increase in the frequency of extreme winter events in the Arctic may lead to more widespread damage to shrub-dominated ecosystems, including peatlands. In principle, such damage should reduce carbon uptake in the following summer, but the resilience of northern ecosystems to extreme winter events remains unclear due to a dearth of flux measurements from affected areas. In this talk, therefore, we report CO2 fluxes measured with eddy covariance from a peatland in northern Norway and show that vegetation productivity was delayed and reduced during the summer of 2014, following an extreme winter event. Strong frost and the absence of a protective snow cover in January of that year - its combined intensity unprecedented in the local climate record - led to severe dieback of the shrub species Calluna vulgaris and Empetrum nigrum. Similar vegetation damage was reported at the time along 1000 km of coastal Norway, indicating the widespread impact of this frost drought event. Consequently, gross primary production (GPP) showed a strong delayed response to temperature, from snowmelt up to the peak of summer, potentially reducing carbon uptake by 15 (0-24) g C m-2 ( 13% of GPP in that period). The delayed response of the vegetation was also exhibited in remotely-sensed NDVI values, with a maximum two weeks later than normal and at the lowest level in more than a decade. Photosynthesis was eventually stimulated by the warm and sunny summer, but ecosystem respiration increased as well - which limited net carbon uptake. This study shows that damage from a single extreme winter event can have a profound impact on ecosystem CO2 uptake, and it highlights the importance of including winter-induced shrub damage in terrestrial ecosystem models to accurately predict vegetation and carbon sequestration trends in the arctic and boreal region.

Resonance Raman Spectroscopy of Extreme Nanowires and Other 1D Systems

PubMed Central

Smith, David C.; Spencer, Joseph H.; Sloan, Jeremy; McDonnell, Liam P.; Trewhitt, Harrison; Kashtiban, Reza J.; Faulques, Eric

2016-01-01

This paper briefly describes how nanowires with diameters corresponding to 1 to 5 atoms can be produced by melting a range of inorganic solids in the presence of carbon nanotubes. These nanowires are extreme in the sense that they are the limit of miniaturization of nanowires and their behavior is not always a simple extrapolation of the behavior of larger nanowires as their diameter decreases. The paper then describes the methods required to obtain Raman spectra from extreme nanowires and the fact that due to the van Hove singularities that 1D systems exhibit in their optical density of states, that determining the correct choice of photon excitation energy is critical. It describes the techniques required to determine the photon energy dependence of the resonances observed in Raman spectroscopy of 1D systems and in particular how to obtain measurements of Raman cross-sections with better than 8% noise and measure the variation in the resonance as a function of sample temperature. The paper describes the importance of ensuring that the Raman scattering is linearly proportional to the intensity of the laser excitation intensity. It also describes how to use the polarization dependence of the Raman scattering to separate Raman scattering of the encapsulated 1D systems from those of other extraneous components in any sample. PMID:27168195

Kriging and local polynomial methods for blending satellite-derived and gauge precipitation estimates to support hydrologic early warning systems

USGS Publications Warehouse

Verdin, Andrew; Funk, Christopher C.; Rajagopalan, Balaji; Kleiber, William

2016-01-01

Robust estimates of precipitation in space and time are important for efficient natural resource management and for mitigating natural hazards. This is particularly true in regions with developing infrastructure and regions that are frequently exposed to extreme events. Gauge observations of rainfall are sparse but capture the precipitation process with high fidelity. Due to its high resolution and complete spatial coverage, satellite-derived rainfall data are an attractive alternative in data-sparse regions and are often used to support hydrometeorological early warning systems. Satellite-derived precipitation data, however, tend to underrepresent extreme precipitation events. Thus, it is often desirable to blend spatially extensive satellite-derived rainfall estimates with high-fidelity rain gauge observations to obtain more accurate precipitation estimates. In this research, we use two different methods, namely, ordinary kriging and κ-nearest neighbor local polynomials, to blend rain gauge observations with the Climate Hazards Group Infrared Precipitation satellite-derived precipitation estimates in data-sparse Central America and Colombia. The utility of these methods in producing blended precipitation estimates at pentadal (five-day) and monthly time scales is demonstrated. We find that these blending methods significantly improve the satellite-derived estimates and are competitive in their ability to capture extreme precipitation.

UV-resistant yeasts isolated from a high-altitude volcanic area on the Atacama Desert as eukaryotic models for astrobiology.

PubMed

Pulschen, André A; Rodrigues, Fabio; Duarte, Rubens T D; Araujo, Gabriel G; Santiago, Iara F; Paulino-Lima, Ivan G; Rosa, Carlos A; Kato, Massuo J; Pellizari, Vivian H; Galante, Douglas

2015-08-01

The Sairecabur volcano (5971 m), in the Atacama Desert, is a high-altitude extreme environment with high daily temperature variations, acidic soils, intense UV radiation, and low availability of water. Four different species of yeasts were isolated from this region using oligotrophic media, identified and characterized for their tolerance to extreme conditions. rRNA sequencing revealed high identity (>98%) to Cryptococcus friedmannii, Exophiala sp., Holtermanniella watticus, and Rhodosporidium toruloides. To our knowledge, this is the first report of these yeasts in the Atacama Desert. All isolates showed high resistance to UV-C, UV-B and environmental-UV radiation, capacity to grow at moderate saline media (0.75-2.25 mol/L NaCl) and at moderate to cold temperatures, being C. friedmannii and H. watticus able to grow in temperatures down to -6.5°C. The presence of pigments, analyzed by Raman spectroscopy, correlated with UV resistance in some cases, but there is evidence that, on the natural environment, other molecular mechanisms may be as important as pigmentation, which has implications for the search of spectroscopic biosignatures on planetary surfaces. Due to the extreme tolerances of the isolated yeasts, these organisms represent interesting eukaryotic models for astrobiological purposes. © 2015 The Authors. MicrobiologyOpen published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

UV-resistant yeasts isolated from a high-altitude volcanic area on the Atacama Desert as eukaryotic models for astrobiology

PubMed Central

Pulschen, André A; Rodrigues, Fabio; Duarte, Rubens T D; Araujo, Gabriel G; Santiago, Iara F; Paulino-Lima, Ivan G; Rosa, Carlos A; Kato, Massuo J; Pellizari, Vivian H; Galante, Douglas

2015-01-01

The Sairecabur volcano (5971 m), in the Atacama Desert, is a high-altitude extreme environment with high daily temperature variations, acidic soils, intense UV radiation, and low availability of water. Four different species of yeasts were isolated from this region using oligotrophic media, identified and characterized for their tolerance to extreme conditions. rRNA sequencing revealed high identity (>98%) to Cryptococcus friedmannii, Exophiala sp., Holtermanniella watticus, and Rhodosporidium toruloides. To our knowledge, this is the first report of these yeasts in the Atacama Desert. All isolates showed high resistance to UV-C, UV-B and environmental-UV radiation, capacity to grow at moderate saline media (0.75–2.25 mol/L NaCl) and at moderate to cold temperatures, being C. friedmannii and H. watticus able to grow in temperatures down to −6.5°C. The presence of pigments, analyzed by Raman spectroscopy, correlated with UV resistance in some cases, but there is evidence that, on the natural environment, other molecular mechanisms may be as important as pigmentation, which has implications for the search of spectroscopic biosignatures on planetary surfaces. Due to the extreme tolerances of the isolated yeasts, these organisms represent interesting eukaryotic models for astrobiological purposes. PMID:26147800

UV-resistant yeasts isolated from a high-altitude volcanic area on the Atacama Desert as eukaryotic models for astrobiology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pulschen, A. A.; Rodrigues, F.; Duarte, R. T.; Araujo, G. G.; Santiago, I. F.; Paulino-Lima, Ivan G.; Rosa, Carlos A.; Kato, Massuo J.; Pellizari, Vivian H.; Galante, Douglas

2015-08-01

The Sairecabur volcano (5971 m), in the Atacama Desert, is a high-altitude extreme environment with high daily temperature variations, acidic soils, intense UV radiation, and low availability of water. Four different species of yeasts were isolated from this region using oligotrophic media, identified and characterized for their tolerance to extreme conditions. rRNA sequencing revealed high identity (>98%) to Cryptococcus friedmannii, Exophiala sp., Holtermanniella watticus, and Rhodosporidium toruloides. To our knowledge, this is the first report of these yeasts in the Atacama Desert. All isolates showed high resistance to UV-C, UV-B and environmental-UV radiation, capacity to grow at moderate saline media (0.75-2.25 mol/L NaCl) and at moderate to cold temperatures, being C. friedmannii and H. watticus able to grow in temperatures down to -6.5°C. The presence of pigments, analyzed by Raman spectroscopy, correlated with UV resistance in some cases, but there is evidence that, on the natural environment, other molecular mechanisms may be as important as pigmentation, which has implications for the search of spectroscopic biosignatures on planetary surfaces. Due to the extreme tolerances of the isolated yeasts, these organisms represent interesting eukaryotic models for astrobiological purposes.

Deciphering endophyte behaviour: the link between endophyte biology and efficacious biological control agents.

PubMed

Card, Stuart; Johnson, Linda; Teasdale, Suliana; Caradus, John

2016-08-01

Endophytes associate with the majority of plant species found in natural and managed ecosystems. They are regarded as extremely important plant partners that provide improved stress tolerance to the host compared with plants that lack this symbiosis. Fossil records of endophytes date back more than 400 million years, implicating these microorganisms in host plant adaptation to habitat transitions. However, it is only recently that endophytes, and their bioactive products, have received meaningful attention from the scientific community. The benefits some endophytes can confer on their hosts include plant growth promotion and survival through the inhibition of pathogenic microorganisms and invertebrate pests, the removal of soil contaminants, improved tolerance of low fertility soils, and increased tolerance of extreme temperatures and low water availability. Endophytes are extremely diverse and can exhibit many different biological behaviours. Not all endophyte technologies have been successfully commercialised. Of interest in the development of the next generation of plant protection products is how much of this is due to the biology of the particular endophytic microorganism. In this review, we highlight selected case studies of endophytes and discuss their lifestyles and behavioural traits, and discuss how these factors contribute towards their effectiveness as biological control agents. © FEMS 2016. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Genetic and life-history consequences of extreme climate events.

PubMed

Vincenzi, Simone; Mangel, Marc; Jesensek, Dusan; Garza, John Carlos; Crivelli, Alain J

2017-02-08

Climate change is predicted to increase the frequency and intensity of extreme climate events. Tests on empirical data of theory-based predictions on the consequences of extreme climate events are thus necessary to understand the adaptive potential of species and the overarching risks associated with all aspects of climate change. We tested predictions on the genetic and life-history consequences of extreme climate events in two populations of marble trout Salmo marmoratus that have experienced severe demographic bottlenecks due to flash floods. We combined long-term field and genotyping data with pedigree reconstruction in a theory-based framework. Our results show that after flash floods, reproduction occurred at a younger age in one population. In both populations, we found the highest reproductive variance in the first cohort born after the floods due to a combination of fewer parents and higher early survival of offspring. A small number of parents allowed for demographic recovery after the floods, but the genetic bottleneck further reduced genetic diversity in both populations. Our results also elucidate some of the mechanisms responsible for a greater prevalence of faster life histories after the extreme event. © 2017 The Author(s).

Clinical and pathophysiological evidence supporting the safety of extremely low LDL levels-The zero-LDL hypothesis.

PubMed

Masana, Luis; Girona, Josefa; Ibarretxe, Daiana; Rodríguez-Calvo, Ricardo; Rosales, Roser; Vallvé, Joan-Carles; Rodríguez-Borjabad, Cèlia; Guardiola, Montserrat; Rodríguez, Marina; Guaita-Esteruelas, Sandra; Oliva, Iris; Martínez-Micaelo, Neus; Heras, Mercedes; Ferré, Raimon; Ribalta, Josep; Plana, Núria

While the impact of very low concentrations of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) on cardiovascular prevention is very reassuring, it is intriguing to know what effect these extremely low LDL-C concentrations have on lipid homoeostasis. The evidence supporting the safety of extremely low LDL levels comes from genetic studies and clinical drug trials. Individuals with lifelong low LDL levels due to mutations in genes associated with increased LDL-LDL receptor (LDLR) activity reveal no safety issues. Patients achieving extremely low LDL levels in the IMPROVE-IT and FOURIER, and the PROFICIO and ODYSSEY programs seem not to have an increased prevalence of adverse effects. The main concern regarding extremely low LDL-C plasma concentrations is the adequacy of the supply of cholesterol, and other molecules, to peripheral tissues. However, LDL proteomic and kinetic studies reaffirm that LDL is the final product of endogenous lipoprotein metabolism. Four of 5 LDL particles are cleared through the LDL-LDLR pathway in the liver. Given that mammalian cells have no enzymatic systems to degrade cholesterol, the LDL-LDLR pathway is the main mechanism for removal of cholesterol from the body. Our focus, therefore, is to review, from a physiological perspective, why such extremely low LDL-C concentrations do not appear to be detrimental. We suggest that extremely low LDL-C levels due to increased LDLR activity may be a surrogate of adequate LDL-LDLR pathway function. Copyright © 2018 National Lipid Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Extreme methane emissions from a Swiss hydropower reservoir: contribution from bubbling sediments.

PubMed

Delsontro, Tonya; McGinnis, Daniel F; Sobek, Sebastian; Ostrovsky, Ilia; Wehrli, Bernhard

2010-04-01

Methane emission pathways and their importance were quantified during a yearlong survey of a temperate hydropower reservoir. Measurements using gas traps indicated very high ebullition rates, but due to the stochastic nature of ebullition a mass balance approach was crucial to deduce system-wide methane sources and losses. Methane diffusion from the sediment was generally low and seasonally stable and did not account for the high concentration of dissolved methane measured in the reservoir discharge. A strong positive correlation between water temperature and the observed dissolved methane concentration enabled us to quantify the dissolved methane addition from bubble dissolution using a system-wide mass balance. Finally, knowing the contribution due to bubble dissolution, we used a bubble model to estimate bubble emission directly to the atmosphere. Our results indicated that the total methane emission from Lake Wohlen was on average >150 mg CH(4) m(-2) d(-1), which is the highest ever documented for a midlatitude reservoir. The substantial temperature-dependent methane emissions discovered in this 90-year-old reservoir indicate that temperate water bodies can be an important but overlooked methane source.

Quantifying population exposure to airborne particulate matter during extreme events in California due to climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mahmud, A.; Hixson, M.; Kleeman, M. J.

2012-08-01

The effect of climate change on population-weighted concentrations of particulate matter (PM) during extreme pollution events was studied using the Parallel Climate Model (PCM), the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and the UCD/CIT 3-D photochemical air quality model. A "business as usual" (B06.44) global emissions scenario was dynamically downscaled for the entire state of California between the years 2000-2006 and 2047-2053. Air quality simulations were carried out for 1008 days in each of the present-day and future climate conditions using year-2000 emissions. Population-weighted concentrations of PM0.1, PM2.5, and PM10 total mass, components species, and primary source contributions were calculated for California and three air basins: the Sacramento Valley air basin (SV), the San Joaquin Valley air basin (SJV) and the South Coast Air Basin (SoCAB). Results over annual-average periods were contrasted with extreme events. The current study found that the change in annual-average population-weighted PM2.5 mass concentrations due to climate change between 2000 vs. 2050 within any major sub-region in California was not statistically significant. However, climate change did alter the annual-average composition of the airborne particles in the SoCAB, with notable reductions of elemental carbon (EC; -3%) and organic carbon (OC; -3%) due to increased annual-average wind speeds that diluted primary concentrations from gasoline combustion (-3%) and food cooking (-4%). In contrast, climate change caused significant increases in population-weighted PM2.5 mass concentrations in central California during extreme events. The maximum 24-h average PM2.5 concentration experienced by an average person during a ten-yr period in the SJV increased by 21% due to enhanced production of secondary particulate matter (manifested as NH4NO3). In general, climate change caused increased stagnation during future extreme pollution events, leading to higher exposure to diesel engines particles (+32%) and wood combustion particles (+14%) when averaging across the population of the entire state. Enhanced stagnation also isolated populations from distant sources such as shipping (-61%) during extreme events. The combination of these factors altered the statewide population-averaged composition of particles during extreme events, with EC increasing by 23 %, nitrate increasing by 58%, and sulfate decreasing by 46%.

Modeling extreme sea levels due to tropical and extra-tropical cyclones at the global-scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muis, S.; Lin, N.; Verlaan, M.; Winsemius, H.; Ward, P.; Aerts, J.

2017-12-01

Extreme sea levels, a combination of storm surges and astronomical tides, can cause catastrophic floods. Due to their intense wind speeds and low pressure, tropical cyclones (TCs) typically cause higher storm surges than extra-tropical cyclones (ETCs), but ETCs may still contribute significantly to the overall flood risk. In this contribution, we show a novel approach to model extreme sea levels due to both tropical and extra-tropical cyclones at the global-scale. Using a global hydrodynamic model we have developed the Global Tide and Surge Reanalysis (GTSR) dataset (Muis et al., 2016), which provides daily maximum timeseries of storm tide from 1979 to 2014. GTSR is based on wind and pressure fields from the ERA-Interim climate reanalysis (Dee at al., 2011). A severe limitation of the GTSR dataset is the underrepresentation of TCs. This is due to the relatively coarse grid resolution of ERA-Interim, which means that the strong intensities of TCs are not fully included. Furthermore, the length of ERA-Interim is too short to estimate the probabilities of extreme TCs in a reliable way. We will discuss potential ways to address this limitation, and demonstrate how to improve the global GTSR framework. We will apply the improved framework to the east coast of the United States. First, we improve our meteorological forcing by applying a parametric hurricane model (Holland 1980), and we improve the tide and surge reanalysis dataset (Muis et al., 2016) by explicitly modeling the historical TCs in the Extended Best Track dataset (Demuth et al., 2006). Second, we improve our sampling by statistically extending the observed TC record to many thousands of years (Emanuel et al., 2006). The improved framework allows for the mapping of probabilities of extreme sea levels, including extremes TC events, for the east coast of the United States. ReferencesDee et al (2011). The ERA-Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 137, 553-97. Emanuel et al (2006). A Statistical Deterministic Approach to Hurricane Risk Assessment/ Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 87, 299-314. Holland (1980). An analytic model of the wind and pressure profiles in hurricanes. Mon. Weather Rev. 108, 1212-1218. Muis et al (2016). A global reanalysis of storm surge and extreme sea levels. Nat. Commun. 7, 1-11

Energy dissipation in Ni-containing concentrated solid solutions.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Samolyuk, German; Mu, Sai; Jin, Ke; Bei, Hongbin; Stocks, G. Malcolm

Due to high disorder the diffusion processes are noticeably suppressed concentrated solid solution, so called high entropy alloys. It makes these alloys promising candidate for energy application under extreme conditions. Understanding of the energy dissipation in these alloys during the irradiation or interaction with laser bean is extremely important. In the metals and alloys the main channel of energy dissipation is provided by the electronic subsystem. The first principles approach was used to investigate the electronic structure properties of the alloys. The obtained results were used to calculate the electronic part of thermal resistivity caused by scattering of electrons on atomic disorder, magnetic and phonon excitations The contribution of last two excitations to the temperature dependence of thermal resistivity is discussed. The importance of magnetism in 3d transition metals based alloy was demonstrated. In particular, it was shown that antiferromagnetic ordering of chromium or manganese leads to significant increase of electron scattering in alloy containing these elements. It results in significant reduction of conductivity in chromium or manganese containing alloys. The comparison with the existing experimental data is discussed. This work was supported as part of the Energy Dissipation to Defect Evolution (EDDE), an Energy Frontier Research Center funded by the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Science, Basic Energy Sciences.

The economics of natural disasters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hallegatte, S.

2007-05-01

Mitigating natural disasters is probably more important for society than it can be inferred from direct losses. Total economic losses, indeed, can be much larger than direct losses, especially for large disasters, which affect the economy for extended periods of time (e.g., New Orleans after Katrina), and represent an important obstacle to economic development in certain regions (e.g. Central America). A series of recent modelling exercises highlights several findings. First, total economic losses due to an event are increasing nonlinearly as a function of its direct losses, because destructions both increase reconstruction needs and reduce reconstruction capacity. Second, endogenous economic dynamics has to be taken into account in the assessment of disaster consequences. More particularly, an economy in the expansion phase of its business cycle appears to be more vulnerable to extreme events than an economy in recession. This result is supported by the fact that worker availability is found to be one of the main obstacles to a rapid and efficient reconstruction. Third, natural disasters can create poverty traps for poor countries, which have a lower ability to fund and carry out reconstruction. As a consequence, climate change impacts from extreme events may be significant, and will depend on how societies are able to adapt their reconstruction capacity to new levels of risk.

Extreme events assessment methodology coupling rainfall and tidal levels in the coastal floodplain of the São Paulo North Coast (Brazil) for drainage purposes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alfredini, P.; Cartacho, D. L.; Arasaki, E.; Rosso, M.; Sousa, W. C., Jr.; Lanzieri, D. R.; Ferreira, J. P. M.

2012-04-01

The Caraguatatuba Coastal Plain is the wider in São Paulo State (Brazil) North Coastline. The Santo Antônio Torrent Catchmenth drains that region with high urban concentration (around 100,000 permanent inhabitants), which may quintuplicate with the turists in the summer period. In the last decade important oil and gas sea reserves were discovered and the facilities for their treatment were located in that region. For that great economic growth scenario it is mandatory to design mitigation risk measures to have the fluvial forcing processes well known, considering the natural hazards. The Santo Antônio catchment has a surface area of 40 km2, heavy rainfall rates (around 3000 mm/year), concentrated mainly in the summer period, producing high fluvial sediment transport capacity, floods and debris-flows. Due to the steep slopes and the altitude (~ 1000 m) of the mountains near the coast, the hydrological orographic effect rapidly condensates the sea humidity and recurrent and intense flood events cause extensive risks and damages to population and infrastructures. Strong debris-flows occur in that region, because rains higher than 300-400 mm per day occur in multi decadal periods. Due to the wind blowing landward the humidity from the sea, also meteorological tides occur in correspondence of high rainfall rates. The aim of this project is to present an extreme hydrological assessment methodology, coupling rainfall rates and tidal levels, to show the impact of climate changes during the last decades. It is also presented the magnitude of the rising meteorological tide coupled with the extreme rainfall events. The data base analysed comprised long term data of rainfall and tidal measurements from 1954 to 2003. The correlations of the two data were divided in five classes of rainfall in mm per day (> 0, > 25, > 50, > 75 and > 100) and estimated the tidal levels for different return periods in years (2, 5, 10, 20, 50, 75 and 100). The comparison of two distint periods (1954 to 1980 and 1981 to 2000) for extreme events typically used for drainage projects (rains higher than 50 mm/day) clearly showed an increasing in tidal levels for the same return period. That trend indicates the importance to mantain a monitoring network in order to avoid the interruption of long term data series. According to that conclusions were evaluated the number of constructions and inhabitants affected in the are prone of that flooding in the next decades.

Stress fracture of ulna due to excessive push-ups.

PubMed

Meena, Sanjay; Rastogi, Devarshi; Solanki, Bipin; Chowdhury, Buddhadev

2014-01-01

Stress fractures are most common in the weight-bearing bones of the lower extremities and spine, but are rarely found in non-weight-bearing bones of the body. Stress fracture of the ulna is extremely rare. We report a case of complete stress fracture of ulna caused due to excessive push ups in a young athlete. Conservative management was successful in healing of fracture and returning this patient back to his previous activity level. Physician should have high index of suspicion, whenever they encounter a young athlete complaining of forearm pain.

Characteristics of occurrence of heavy rainfall events over Odisha during summer monsoon season

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Swain, Madhusmita; Pattanayak, Sujata; Mohanty, U. C.

2018-06-01

During summer monsoon season heavy to very heavy rainfall events have been occurring over most part of India, routinely result in flooding over Indian Monsoon Region (IMR). It is worthwhile to mention that as per Geological Survey of India, Odisha is one of the most flood prone regions of India. The present study analyses the occurrence of very light (0-2.4 mm/day), light (2.5 - 15.5 mm/day), moderate (15.6 - 64.4 mm/day), heavy (64.5 - 115.4 mm/day), very heavy (115.5 - 204.4 mm/day) and extreme (≥ 204.5 mm/day) rainy days over Odisha during summer monsoon season for a period of 113 years (1901 - 2013) and a detailed study has been done for heavy-to-extreme rainy days. For this purpose, India Meteorological Department (IMD) gridded (0.25° × 0.25° lat/lon) rainfall data and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim) (0.125° × 0.125° lat/lon) datasets are used. The analysis reveals that the frequency of very light, light and moderate rainy days persists with almost constant trend, but the heavy, very heavy and extreme rainy days exhibit an increasing trend during the study period. It may be noted that more than 60% of heavy-to-extreme rainy days are observed in the month of July and August. Furthermore, during the recent period (1980-2013), there are a total of 150 extreme rainy days are observed over Odisha, out of which 47% are associated with monsoon depressions (MDs) and cyclonic storms, 41% are with lows, 2% are due to the presence of middle and upper tropospheric cyclonic circulations, 1% is due to monsoon trough and other 9% of extreme rainy days does not follow any of these synoptic conditions. Since a large (nearly half) percentage of extreme rainy days over Odisha is due to the presence of MDs, a detailed examination of MDs is illustrated in this study. Analysis reveals that there are a total of 91 MDs formed over the Bay of Bengal (BoB) during 1980 - 2013, and out of which 56 (61.5% of total MD) MDs crossed Odisha. Further spatial analysis of extreme rainfall days exhibits that the maximum frequency of extreme rainy days is present over the south west region of Odisha.

Two centuries of extreme events over the Baltic Sea and North Sea regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stendel, Martin; den Besselaar Else, van; Abdel, Hannachi; Jaak, Jaagus; Elizabeth, Kent; Christiana, Lefebvre; Gudrun, Rosenhagen; Anna, Rutgersson; Frederik, Schenk; der Schrier Gerard, van; Tim, Woolings

2017-04-01

Two centuries of extreme events over the Baltic Sea and North Sea regions In the framework of the BACC 2 (for the Baltic Sea) and NOSCCA projects (for the North Sea region), studies of past and present variability and changes in atmospheric variables within the North Sea region over the instrumental period (roughly the past 200 years) have been investigated. Findings on trends in temperature and precipitation have already been presented. Here we focus on data homogeneity issues and examine how reliable reanalyses are in this context. Unlike most other regions in the world, there is a wealth of old observations available for the Baltic and North Sea regions, most of it in handwritten form in meteorological journals and other publications. These datasets need to be carefully digitised and homogenized. For this, a thorough quality control must be applied; otherwise the digitised datasets may prove useless or even counterproductive. We present evidence that this step cannot be conducted without human interference and thus cannot be fully automated. Furthermore, inhomogeneities due to e.g. instrumentation and station relocations need to be addressed. A wealth of reanalysis products is available, which can help detect such inhomogeneities in observed time series, but at the same time are prone to biases and/or spurious trends themselves e.g. introduced by changes in the availability and quality of the underlying assimilated data. It therefore in general remains unclear in how far we can simulate the pre-satellite era with respect to homogeneity with reanalyses based only on parts of the observing system. Extreme events and changes in extreme situations are more important and of greater (societal) significance than changes in mean climate. However, changes in extreme weather events are difficult to assess not only because they are, per definition, rare events, but also due to the homogeneity issues outlined above. Taking these into account, we present evidence for changes in extrema in the Baltic and North Sea regions. In particular, we will discuss different measures of storminess, compare the persistence of circulation types and investigate to what extent atmospheric circulation over the Baltic and North Sea regions is controlled influenced by distant factors, in particular Arctic sea-ice decline in recent decades.

Assessment and comparison of extreme sea levels and waves during the 2013/2014 storm season in two UK coastal regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wadey, M. P.; Brown, J. M.; Haigh, I. D.; Dolphin, T.; Wisse, P.

2015-04-01

The extreme sea levels and waves experienced around the UK's coast during the 2013/2014 winter caused extensive coastal flooding and damage. In such circumstances, coastal managers seek to place such extremes in relation to the anticipated standards of flood protection, and the long-term recovery of the natural system. In this context, return periods are often used as a form of guidance. We therefore provide these levels for the winter storms, as well as discussing their application to the given data sets and case studies (two UK case study sites: Sefton, northwest England; and Suffolk, east England). We use tide gauge records and wave buoy data to compare the 2013/2014 storms with return periods from a national dataset, and also generate joint probabilities of sea level and waves, incorporating the recent events. The UK was hit at a national scale by the 2013/2014 storms, although the return periods differ with location. We also note that the 2013/2014 high water and waves were extreme due to the number of events, as well as the extremity of the 5 December 2013 "Xaver" storm, which had a very high return period at both case study sites. Our return period analysis shows that the national scale impact of this event is due to its coincidence with spring high tide at multiple locations as the tide and storm propagated across the continental shelf. Given that this event is such an outlier in the joint probability analyses of these observed data sets, and that the season saw several events in close succession, coastal defences appear to have provided a good level of protection. This type of assessment should be recorded alongside details of defence performance and upgrade, with other variables (e.g. river levels at estuarine locations) included and appropriate offsetting for linear trends (e.g. mean sea level rise) so that the storm-driven component of coastal flood events can be determined. Local offsetting of the mean trends in sea level allows long-term comparison of storm severity and also enables an assessment of how sea level rise is influencing return levels over time, which is important when considering long-term coastal resilience in strategic management plans.

Data-assisted reduced-order modeling of extreme events in complex dynamical systems

PubMed Central

Koumoutsakos, Petros

2018-01-01

The prediction of extreme events, from avalanches and droughts to tsunamis and epidemics, depends on the formulation and analysis of relevant, complex dynamical systems. Such dynamical systems are characterized by high intrinsic dimensionality with extreme events having the form of rare transitions that are several standard deviations away from the mean. Such systems are not amenable to classical order-reduction methods through projection of the governing equations due to the large intrinsic dimensionality of the underlying attractor as well as the complexity of the transient events. Alternatively, data-driven techniques aim to quantify the dynamics of specific, critical modes by utilizing data-streams and by expanding the dimensionality of the reduced-order model using delayed coordinates. In turn, these methods have major limitations in regions of the phase space with sparse data, which is the case for extreme events. In this work, we develop a novel hybrid framework that complements an imperfect reduced order model, with data-streams that are integrated though a recurrent neural network (RNN) architecture. The reduced order model has the form of projected equations into a low-dimensional subspace that still contains important dynamical information about the system and it is expanded by a long short-term memory (LSTM) regularization. The LSTM-RNN is trained by analyzing the mismatch between the imperfect model and the data-streams, projected to the reduced-order space. The data-driven model assists the imperfect model in regions where data is available, while for locations where data is sparse the imperfect model still provides a baseline for the prediction of the system state. We assess the developed framework on two challenging prototype systems exhibiting extreme events. We show that the blended approach has improved performance compared with methods that use either data streams or the imperfect model alone. Notably the improvement is more significant in regions associated with extreme events, where data is sparse. PMID:29795631

Data-assisted reduced-order modeling of extreme events in complex dynamical systems.

PubMed

Wan, Zhong Yi; Vlachas, Pantelis; Koumoutsakos, Petros; Sapsis, Themistoklis

2018-01-01

The prediction of extreme events, from avalanches and droughts to tsunamis and epidemics, depends on the formulation and analysis of relevant, complex dynamical systems. Such dynamical systems are characterized by high intrinsic dimensionality with extreme events having the form of rare transitions that are several standard deviations away from the mean. Such systems are not amenable to classical order-reduction methods through projection of the governing equations due to the large intrinsic dimensionality of the underlying attractor as well as the complexity of the transient events. Alternatively, data-driven techniques aim to quantify the dynamics of specific, critical modes by utilizing data-streams and by expanding the dimensionality of the reduced-order model using delayed coordinates. In turn, these methods have major limitations in regions of the phase space with sparse data, which is the case for extreme events. In this work, we develop a novel hybrid framework that complements an imperfect reduced order model, with data-streams that are integrated though a recurrent neural network (RNN) architecture. The reduced order model has the form of projected equations into a low-dimensional subspace that still contains important dynamical information about the system and it is expanded by a long short-term memory (LSTM) regularization. The LSTM-RNN is trained by analyzing the mismatch between the imperfect model and the data-streams, projected to the reduced-order space. The data-driven model assists the imperfect model in regions where data is available, while for locations where data is sparse the imperfect model still provides a baseline for the prediction of the system state. We assess the developed framework on two challenging prototype systems exhibiting extreme events. We show that the blended approach has improved performance compared with methods that use either data streams or the imperfect model alone. Notably the improvement is more significant in regions associated with extreme events, where data is sparse.

Meningococcus Disease Photos

MedlinePlus

... of hands and lower extremities due to meningococcemia http://www.vaccineinformation.org/photos/menicdc001.jpg Courtesy Centers ... female with gangrene of feet due to meningococcemia http://www.vaccineinformation.org/photos/menicdc002.jpg Courtesy Centers ...

Extreme seismicity and disaster risks: Hazard versus vulnerability (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ismail-Zadeh, A.

2013-12-01

Although the extreme nature of earthquakes has been known for millennia due to the resultant devastation from many of them, the vulnerability of our civilization to extreme seismic events is still growing. It is partly because of the increase in the number of high-risk objects and clustering of populations and infrastructure in the areas prone to seismic hazards. Today an earthquake may affect several hundreds thousand lives and cause significant damage up to hundred billion dollars; it can trigger an ecological catastrophe if occurs in close vicinity to a nuclear power plant. Two types of extreme natural events can be distinguished: (i) large magnitude low probability events, and (ii) the events leading to disasters. Although the first-type events may affect earthquake-prone countries directly or indirectly (as tsunamis, landslides etc.), the second-type events occur mainly in economically less-developed countries where the vulnerability is high and the resilience is low. Although earthquake hazards cannot be reduced, vulnerability to extreme events can be diminished by monitoring human systems and by relevant laws preventing an increase in vulnerability. Significant new knowledge should be gained on extreme seismicity through observations, monitoring, analysis, modeling, comprehensive hazard assessment, prediction, and interpretations to assist in disaster risk analysis. The advanced disaster risk communication skill should be developed to link scientists, emergency management authorities, and the public. Natural, social, economic, and political reasons leading to disasters due to earthquakes will be discussed.

Spatiotemporal variability of extreme temperature frequency and amplitude in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Yuanjie; Gao, Zhiqiu; Pan, Zaitao; Li, Dan; Huang, Xinhui

2017-03-01

Temperature extremes in China are examined based on daily maximum and minimum temperatures from station observations and multiple global climate models. The magnitude and frequency of extremes are expressed in terms of return values and periods, respectively, estimated by the fitted Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution of annual extreme temperatures. The observations suggest that changes in temperature extremes considerably exceed changes in the respective climatological means during the past five decades, with greater amplitude of increases in cold extremes than in warm extremes. The frequency of warm (cold) extremes increases (decreases) over most areas, with an increasingly faster rate as the extremity level rises. Changes in warm extremes are more dependent on the varying shape of GEV distribution than the location shift, whereas changes in cold extremes are more closely associated with the location shift. The models simulate the overall pattern of temperature extremes during 1961-1981 reasonably well in China, but they show a smaller asymmetry between changes in warm and cold extremes primarily due to their underestimation of increases in cold extremes especially over southern China. Projections from a high emission scenario show the multi-model median change in warm and cold extremes by 2040 relative to 1971 will be 2.6 °C and 2.8 °C, respectively, with the strongest changes in cold extremes shifting southward. By 2040, warm extremes at the 1971 20-year return values would occur about every three years, while the 1971 cold extremes would occur once in > 500 years.

Influence of extreme weather disasters on global crop production.

PubMed

Lesk, Corey; Rowhani, Pedram; Ramankutty, Navin

2016-01-07

In recent years, several extreme weather disasters have partially or completely damaged regional crop production. While detailed regional accounts of the effects of extreme weather disasters exist, the global scale effects of droughts, floods and extreme temperature on crop production are yet to be quantified. Here we estimate for the first time, to our knowledge, national cereal production losses across the globe resulting from reported extreme weather disasters during 1964-2007. We show that droughts and extreme heat significantly reduced national cereal production by 9-10%, whereas our analysis could not identify an effect from floods and extreme cold in the national data. Analysing the underlying processes, we find that production losses due to droughts were associated with a reduction in both harvested area and yields, whereas extreme heat mainly decreased cereal yields. Furthermore, the results highlight ~7% greater production damage from more recent droughts and 8-11% more damage in developed countries than in developing ones. Our findings may help to guide agricultural priorities in international disaster risk reduction and adaptation efforts.

Hypertensive intracerebral hemorrhage due to autonomic dysreflexia in a young man with cervical cord injury.

PubMed

Sumiya, Tadashi

2013-06-01

The author reports the case of a 36 year old man with cervical cord injury in whom autonomic dysreflexia developed into intracerebral hemorrhage during inpatient rehabilitation. This patient showed complete quadriplegia (motor below C6 and sensory below C7) due to fracture of the 6th cervical vertebra. An indwelling urethral catheter had been inserted into the bladder for 3 months, diminishing bladder expansiveness. Bladder capacity decreased to 200 ml and the patient frequently experienced headaches whenever his bladder was full.To obtain smoother urine flow, a supra-pubic cystostomy was performed. The headaches were temporarily cured, but soon relapsed with extreme increases in blood pressure, representing typical symptoms of autonomic dysreflexia. However, no potential triggers were identified or removed, and lack of blood pressure management led to left putaminal hemorrhage. Despite operative treatment, the right upper extremity showed progressive increases in muscle tonus and finally formed a frozen shoulder with elbow flexion contracture. Two factors contributed to this serious complication: first, autonomic dysreflexia triggered by minor malfunction and/or irritation from the cystostomy catheter; and second, the medical staff lacked sufficient experience in and knowledge about the management of autonomic dysreflexia.It is of the utmost importance for medical staff engaging in rehabilitation of spinal patients to share information regarding triggers of autonomic dysreflexia and to be thorough in ensuring proper medical management.

[Constructing a database that can input record of use and product-specific information].

PubMed

Kawai, Satoru; Satoh, Kenichi; Yamamoto, Hideo

2012-01-01

In Japan, patients were infected by viral hepatitis C generally by administering a specific fibrinogen injection. However, it has been difficult to identify patients who were infected as result of the injections due to the lack of medical records. It is still not a common practice by a number of medical facilities to maintain detailed information because manual record keeping is extremely time consuming and subject to human error. Due to these reasons, the regulator required Medical device manufacturers and pharmaceutical companies to attach a bar code called "GS1-128" effective March 28, 2008. Based on this new process, we have come up with the idea of constructing a new database whose records can be entered by bar code scanning to ensure data integrity. Upon examining the efficacy of this new data collection process from the perspective of time efficiency and of course data accuracy, "GS1-128" proved that it significantly reduces time and record keeping mistakes. Patients not only became easily identifiable by a lot number and a serial number when immediate care was required, but "GS1-128" enhanced the ability to pinpoint manufacturing errors in the event any trouble or side effects are reported. This data can be shared with and utilized by the entire medical industry and will help perfect the products and enhance record keeping. I believe this new process is extremely important.

Nerve transfers for restoration of upper extremity motor function in a child with upper extremity motor deficits due to transverse myelitis: case report.

PubMed

Dorsi, Michael J; Belzberg, Allan J

2012-01-01

Transverse myelitis (TM) may result in permanent neurologic dysfunction. Nerve transfers have been developed to restore function after peripheral nerve injury. Here, we present a case report of a child with permanent right upper extremity weakness due to TM that underwent nerve transfers. The following procedures were performed: double fascicle transfer from median nerve and ulnar nerve to the brachialis and biceps branches of the musculocutaneous nerve, spinal accessory to suprascapular nerve, and medial cord to axillary nerve end-to-side neurorraphy. At 22 months, the patient demonstrated excellent recovery of elbow flexion with minimal improvement in shoulder abduction. We propose that the treatment of permanent deficits from TM represents a novel indication for nerve transfers in a subset of patients. Copyright © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Projecting the Influence of Climate Change on Extreme Ground-level Ozone Events in Selected Ontario Cities =

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leung, Kinson He Yin

Ground-level ozone (O3) is perhaps one of the most familiar pollutants in Ontario, Canada because it is associated with most smog alerts in the province. O3 varies on a number of spatial and temporal scales, primarily due to meteorological variability and the impact of long-range transport of its precursors on the photochemical processes. The goal of this thesis is to project the change in the probability of occurrence of future Extreme Ground-level Ozone Events (EGLOEs) due to changes in atmospheric conditions as a result of climate change for cities located in the southern, eastern and northern parts of Ontario, Canada by using a combination of General Circulation / Global Climate Models (GCMs) and statistical downscaling. These Ontario cities are Toronto, Windsor, London, Kingston, Ottawa, Thunder Bay, Sudbury and North Bay. The successful downscaling method used in this research to generate city-specific climate change scenarios was the Statistical DownScaling Model (SDSM) version 4.2.2, which is a hybrid of regression-based and stochastic weather-generator downscaling methods. The results indicate that the mean values of the daily maximum ground-level ozone concentrations could increase by up to 12-17% in Southern Ontario, 8-16% in Eastern Ontario and 1.5-9% in Northern Ontario by the end of the century due largely to changes in long-range transport. Three important themes emerge from the results: 1) the research successfully model O3 concentration in a region where long-range transport plays a substantial role. 2) The clear confirmation regarding the role of long-range transport in determining O 3 concentration in most areas of Ontario. 3) The projected increase of ozone in Ontario, due largely to an increase of long-range transport, caused by shifting atmospheric dynamics rather than a direct temperature effect on ozone production. Moreover, the results indicate that the future Southern, Eastern and Northern Ontario's EGLOEs with the O3 concentration ≥ 80 ppb (the current Ontario 1-hour Ambient Air Quality criterion for extreme ozone concentration) will have an increase of over 60%, 50% and 62% respectively by the year of 2100 under the different future scenarios in the third version of the Coupled Global Climate Model (CGCM3) and the Hadley Centre's Climate Model (HadCM3).

Correction of dichroic mirror-induced PSF distortion in STED microscopy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Yanghui; Zhou, Hui; Liu, Xiaoyu; Xia, Chengliang; Wang, Le

2018-07-01

Due to its spectral transmission/reflection properties, dichroic mirror (DM) is widely applied in nearly all microscopes to separate and combine beams with diverse wavelengths. However, its potential distortion effects to the point-spread function (PSF) have been ignored to a large extent. Here, we built a mathematical model to quantify these effects. Specifically, we focus on STED microscopy, whose performance is extremely sensitive to the systematic deficiencies. Both excitation and depletion beams are analysed, and the peak intensity and the shape of the effective PSF are calculated accordingly. More importantly, the strategy to compensate the DM-induced PSF distortion is also given in this paper.

Genome sequencing of a single tardigrade Hypsibius dujardini individual

PubMed Central

Arakawa, Kazuharu; Yoshida, Yuki; Tomita, Masaru

2016-01-01

Tardigrades are ubiquitous microscopic animals that play an important role in the study of metazoan phylogeny. Most terrestrial tardigrades can withstand extreme environments by entering an ametabolic desiccated state termed anhydrobiosis. Due to their small size and the non-axenic nature of laboratory cultures, molecular studies of tardigrades are prone to contamination. To minimize the possibility of microbial contaminations and to obtain high-quality genomic information, we have developed an ultra-low input library sequencing protocol to enable the genome sequencing of a single tardigrade Hypsibius dujardini individual. Here, we describe the details of our sequencing data and the ultra-low input library preparation methodologies. PMID:27529330

Genome sequencing of a single tardigrade Hypsibius dujardini individual.

PubMed

Arakawa, Kazuharu; Yoshida, Yuki; Tomita, Masaru

2016-08-16

Tardigrades are ubiquitous microscopic animals that play an important role in the study of metazoan phylogeny. Most terrestrial tardigrades can withstand extreme environments by entering an ametabolic desiccated state termed anhydrobiosis. Due to their small size and the non-axenic nature of laboratory cultures, molecular studies of tardigrades are prone to contamination. To minimize the possibility of microbial contaminations and to obtain high-quality genomic information, we have developed an ultra-low input library sequencing protocol to enable the genome sequencing of a single tardigrade Hypsibius dujardini individual. Here, we describe the details of our sequencing data and the ultra-low input library preparation methodologies.

Evanescent field Sensors Based on Tantalum Pentoxide Waveguides – A Review

PubMed Central

Schmitt, Katrin; Oehse, Kerstin; Sulz, Gerd; Hoffmann, Christian

2008-01-01

Evanescent field sensors based on waveguide surfaces play an important role where high sensitivity is required. Particularly tantalum pentoxide (Ta2O5) is a suitable material for thin-film waveguides due to its high refractive index and low attenuation. Many label-free biosensor systems such as grating couplers and interferometric sensors as well as fluorescence-based systems benefit from this waveguide material leading to extremely high sensitivity. Some biosensor systems based on Ta2O5 waveguides already took the step into commercialization. This report reviews the various detection systems in terms of limit of detection, the applications, and the suitable surface chemistry. PMID:27879731

A study of enhancing critical current densities (J(sub c)) and critical temperature (T(sub c)) of high-temperature superconductors

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vlasse, Marcus

1992-01-01

The development of pure phase 123 and Bi-based 2223 superconductors has been optimized. The pre-heat processing appears to be a very important parameter in achieving optimal physical properties. The synthesis of pure phases in the Bi-based system involves effects due to oxygen partial pressure, time, and temperature. Orientation/melt-sintering effects include the extreme c-axis orientation of Yttrium 123 and Bismuth 2223, 2212, and 2201 phases. This orientation is conductive to increasing critical currents. A procedure was established to substitute Sr for Ba in Y-123 single crystals.

Lower extremity manifestations of "skin-popping" an illicit drug use technique: A report of two cases.

PubMed

Canales, Michael; Gerhard, John; Younce, Erin

2015-06-01

Presented is a rare case of tibial and fibular osteomyelitis and a case of fibular periositis, both a direct consequence of a peculiar drug use technique. The osseous manifestations secondary to presentation of necrotic wounds with indurated rim and serous drainage with associated cellulitis, both resulting from "skin popping." Due to the complex treatment plan required, the importance of a motivated patient, a strong social support system, a controlled environment, and a multidisciplinary team cannot be overstated. Despite comprehensive efforts, devastating consequences may be unavoidable as individuals plunge downward, victimized by their addiction. 4. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

[Locomotive syndrome and frailty. Locomotive syndrome due to the underlying disease of degenerative arthritis].

PubMed

Chosa, Etsuo

2012-04-01

Japan became a superaging society. We have been putting a new focus on locomotive syndrome and frailty. The prevention and treatment of locomotive syndromes, such as osteoarthritis, degenerative spondylosis, lumbar canal stenosis, osteoporosis, upper extremity diseases, rheumatoid arthritis, and many other disorders of the locomotive organs are important. Because, the locomotive syndrome results in deterioration of the exercise function and loss of mental and physical health. The aim of locomotive syndrome exercises are: to reduce pain, to restore and improve joint function. We need to take a comprehensive approach to locomotive syndrome, including lifestyle modification, muscle exercise, stretching and therapeutic exercise.

Advanced asymmetric synthesis of (1R,2S)-1-amino-2-vinylcyclopropanecarboxylic acid by alkylation/cyclization of newly designed axially chiral Ni(II) complex of glycine Schiff base.

PubMed

Kawashima, Aki; Shu, Shuangjie; Takeda, Ryosuke; Kawamura, Akie; Sato, Tatsunori; Moriwaki, Hiroki; Wang, Jiang; Izawa, Kunisuke; Aceña, José Luis; Soloshonok, Vadim A; Liu, Hong

2016-04-01

Asymmetric synthesis of (1R,2S)-1-amino-2-vinylcyclopropanecarboxylic acid (vinyl-ACCA) is in extremely high demand due to the pharmaceutical importance of this tailor-made, sterically constrained α-amino acid. Here we report the development of an advanced procedure for preparation of the target amino acid via two-step SN2 and SN2' alkylation of novel axially chiral nucleophilic glycine equivalent. Excellent yields and diastereoselectivity coupled with reliable and easy scalability render this method of immediate use for practical synthesis of (1R,2S)-vinyl-ACCA.

On the nonlinearity of spatial scales in extreme weather attribution statements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Angélil, Oliver; Stone, Daíthí; Perkins-Kirkpatrick, Sarah; Alexander, Lisa V.; Wehner, Michael; Shiogama, Hideo; Wolski, Piotr; Ciavarella, Andrew; Christidis, Nikolaos

2018-04-01

In the context of ongoing climate change, extreme weather events are drawing increasing attention from the public and news media. A question often asked is how the likelihood of extremes might have changed by anthropogenic greenhouse-gas emissions. Answers to the question are strongly influenced by the model used, duration, spatial extent, and geographic location of the event—some of these factors often overlooked. Using output from four global climate models, we provide attribution statements characterised by a change in probability of occurrence due to anthropogenic greenhouse-gas emissions, for rainfall and temperature extremes occurring at seven discretised spatial scales and three temporal scales. An understanding of the sensitivity of attribution statements to a range of spatial and temporal scales of extremes allows for the scaling of attribution statements, rendering them relevant to other extremes having similar but non-identical characteristics. This is a procedure simple enough to approximate timely estimates of the anthropogenic contribution to the event probability. Furthermore, since real extremes do not have well-defined physical borders, scaling can help quantify uncertainty around attribution results due to uncertainty around the event definition. Results suggest that the sensitivity of attribution statements to spatial scale is similar across models and that the sensitivity of attribution statements to the model used is often greater than the sensitivity to a doubling or halving of the spatial scale of the event. The use of a range of spatial scales allows us to identify a nonlinear relationship between the spatial scale of the event studied and the attribution statement.

On the nonlinearity of spatial scales in extreme weather attribution statements

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Angélil, Oliver; Stone, Daíthí; Perkins-Kirkpatrick, Sarah

In the context of continuing climate change, extreme weather events are drawing increasing attention from the public and news media. A question often asked is how the likelihood of extremes might have changed by anthropogenic greenhouse-gas emissions. Answers to the question are strongly influenced by the model used, duration, spatial extent, and geographic location of the event—some of these factors often overlooked. Using output from four global climate models, we provide attribution statements characterised by a change in probability of occurrence due to anthropogenic greenhouse-gas emissions, for rainfall and temperature extremes occurring at seven discretised spatial scales and three temporalmore » scales. An understanding of the sensitivity of attribution statements to a range of spatial and temporal scales of extremes allows for the scaling of attribution statements, rendering them relevant to other extremes having similar but non-identical characteristics. This is a procedure simple enough to approximate timely estimates of the anthropogenic contribution to the event probability. Furthermore, since real extremes do not have well-defined physical borders, scaling can help quantify uncertainty around attribution results due to uncertainty around the event definition. Results suggest that the sensitivity of attribution statements to spatial scale is similar across models and that the sensitivity of attribution statements to the model used is often greater than the sensitivity to a doubling or halving of the spatial scale of the event. The use of a range of spatial scales allows us to identify a nonlinear relationship between the spatial scale of the event studied and the attribution statement.« less

On the nonlinearity of spatial scales in extreme weather attribution statements

DOE PAGES

Angélil, Oliver; Stone, Daíthí; Perkins-Kirkpatrick, Sarah; ...

2017-06-17

In the context of continuing climate change, extreme weather events are drawing increasing attention from the public and news media. A question often asked is how the likelihood of extremes might have changed by anthropogenic greenhouse-gas emissions. Answers to the question are strongly influenced by the model used, duration, spatial extent, and geographic location of the event—some of these factors often overlooked. Using output from four global climate models, we provide attribution statements characterised by a change in probability of occurrence due to anthropogenic greenhouse-gas emissions, for rainfall and temperature extremes occurring at seven discretised spatial scales and three temporalmore » scales. An understanding of the sensitivity of attribution statements to a range of spatial and temporal scales of extremes allows for the scaling of attribution statements, rendering them relevant to other extremes having similar but non-identical characteristics. This is a procedure simple enough to approximate timely estimates of the anthropogenic contribution to the event probability. Furthermore, since real extremes do not have well-defined physical borders, scaling can help quantify uncertainty around attribution results due to uncertainty around the event definition. Results suggest that the sensitivity of attribution statements to spatial scale is similar across models and that the sensitivity of attribution statements to the model used is often greater than the sensitivity to a doubling or halving of the spatial scale of the event. The use of a range of spatial scales allows us to identify a nonlinear relationship between the spatial scale of the event studied and the attribution statement.« less

Stabilization of erodible slopes with geofibers and nontraditional liquid additives.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2013-05-01

Instability of erodible slopes due to extreme climate events and of permafrost slopes due degradation and thawing is a significant : engineering problem for northern transportation infrastructure. Engineers continually look for mitigation alternative...

Unlocking the potential of orphan legumes.

PubMed

Cullis, Christopher; Kunert, Karl J

2017-04-01

Orphan, or underutilized, legumes are domesticated legumes with useful properties, but with less importance than major world crops due to use and supply constraints. However, they play a significant role in many developing countries, providing food security and nutrition to consumers, as well as income to resource-poor farmers. They have been largely neglected by both researchers and industry due to their limited economic importance in the global market. Orphan legumes are better adapted than the major legume crops to extreme soil and climatic conditions, with high tolerance to abiotic environmental stresses such as drought. As a stress response they can also produce compounds with pharmaceutical value. Orphan legumes are therefore a likely source of important traits for introduction into major crops to aid in combating the stresses associated with global climate change. Modern large-scale genomics techniques are now being applied to many of these previously understudied crops, with the first successes reported in the genomics area. However, greater investment of resources and manpower are necessary if the potential of orphan legumes is to be unlocked and applied in the future. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Experimental Biology. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

A review of the consequences of global climate change on human health.

PubMed

Kim, Ki-Hyun; Kabir, Ehsanul; Ara Jahan, Shamin

2014-01-01

The impact of climate change has been significant enough to endanger human health both directly and indirectly via heat stress, degraded air quality, rising sea levels, food and water security, extreme weather events (e.g., floods, droughts, earthquakes, volcano eruptions, tsunamis, hurricanes, etc.), vulnerable shelter, and population migration. The deterioration of environmental conditions may facilitate the transmission of diarrhea, vector-borne and infectious diseases, cardiovascular and respiratory illnesses, malnutrition, etc. Indirect effects of climate change such as mental health problems due to stress, loss of homes, economic instability, and forced migration are also unignorably important. Children, the elderly, and communities living in poverty are among the most vulnerable of the harmful effects due to climate change. In this article, we have reviewed the scientific evidence for the human health impact of climate change and analyzed the various diseases in association with changes in the atmospheric environment and climate conditions.

Economic assessment of climate adaptation options for urban drainage design in Odense, Denmark.

PubMed

Zhou, Q; Halsnæs, K; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, K

2012-01-01

Climate change is likely to influence the water cycle by changing the precipitation patterns, in some cases leading to increased occurrences of precipitation extremes. Urban landscapes are vulnerable to such changes due to the concentrated population and socio-economic values in cities. Feasible adaptation requires better flood risk quantification and assessment of appropriate adaptation actions in term of costs and benefits. This paper presents an economic assessment of three prevailing climate adaptation options for urban drainage design in a Danish case study, Odense. A risk-based evaluation framework is used to give detailed insights of the physical and economic feasibilities of each option. Estimation of marginal benefits of adaptation options are carried out through a step-by-step cost-benefit analysis. The results are aimed at providing important information for decision making on how best to adapt to urban pluvial flooding due to climate impacts in cities.

Bioactive Micronutrients in Coffee: Recent Analytical Approaches for Characterization and Quantification

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Production of coffee beans is an important lifeline for the economy of several countries in Latin America, Africa, and Asia. The brew from this well sought for cash crop is readily consumed due to its good sensory qualities owing to the presence of many micronutrients. Some of these chemical compounds possess biological activities, including antiproliferative, antioxidant, and antimicrobial effects. Four representative groups of these micronutrients, namely, caffeine, chlorogenic acid, diterpenes, and trigonelline, play key roles in these bioactive effects of coffee. In order to guarantee the quality of coffee products and to protect consumer interest and safeguard their well-being, it is extremely important to employ sensitive and accurate analytical methods in the characterization and quantitative determination of these bioactive constituents. This review aims to present recent applications in this regard. PMID:24967266

Peptide structure: Its effect on penetration into human hair.

PubMed

Silva, Carla J S M; Vasconcelos, Andreia; Cavaco-Paulo, Artur

2007-01-01

The influence of the peptide structure on its penetration inside hair was studied, together with the effect of hair bleaching (oxidation). For that reason, the outcome of positioning a charged sequence (KAKAK) either at the N or C terminal on hair penetration has been studied for peptides with 17 residues each. It was observed that the penetration of these peptides into hair was driven by electrostatic interactions, where the position of the charged group at the peptide structure was of major importance. The penetration was only achieved for damaged hair due to its higher negative charge at the membrane surface. It was also observed that the peptides were able to restore the original tensile strength of bleached hair. Consequently, the knowledge of hair surface properties is of extreme importance when designing peptides directed for hair treatment.

The Individual Consistency of Acquiescence and Extreme Response Style in Self-Report Questionnaires

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Weijters, Bert; Geuens, Maggie; Schillewaert, Niels

2010-01-01

The severity of bias in respondents' self-reports due to acquiescence response style (ARS) and extreme response style (ERS) depends strongly on how consistent these response styles are over the course of a questionnaire. In the literature, different alternative hypotheses on response style (in)consistency circulate. Therefore, nine alternative…

[Paget-Schroetter síndrome associated with hyperhomocsyteinemia].

PubMed

González, C I; Cires, M; Rubio, T; Jiménez, F; Sarasíbar, E; Gaztelu, M T; González, V

2007-01-01

Venous thromboembolic disease (VTED) in the upper extremities is an infrequent entity, although its incidence has increased in relation to the use of central venous catheters. Its etiology can be primary (idiopathic, spontaneous, due to effort or traumatic) or secondary (related to tumours, central venous catheters, etc.). We present a case of primary venous thrombosis of the upper right extremity, also called the Paget-Schroetter syndrome. This clinical picture is usually associated with intensive and/or repetitive exercise or effort of the affected extremity, anatomical alterations in the zone, or it can be the first manifestation of a previously unknown thrombophilic state, as in the case that concerns us. The clinical picture usually consists of pain in the affected extremity, frequently accompanied by edema and collateral circulation. Echography-Doppler frequently presents false negatives, and it is recommendable to carry out CAT, due to its greater specificity and for evaluating the neighbouring structures, although flebography continues to be the cardinal test for diagnosing this picture. There is no unanimity of opinion concerning treatment, and it is recommendable that this should be individualised in accordance with the characteristics of each case.

The biomechanics of upper extremity kinematic and kinetic modeling: applications to rehabilitation engineering.

PubMed

Slavens, Brooke A; Harris, Gerald F

2008-01-01

Human motion analysis has evolved from the lower extremity to the upper extremity. Rehabilitation engineering is reliant upon three-dimensional biome-chanical models for a thorough understanding of upper body motions and forces in order to improve treatment methods, rehabilitation strategies and to prevent injury. Due to the complex nature of upper body movements, a standard biomechanical model does not exist. This paper reviews several kinematic and kinetic rehabilitation engineering models from the literature. These models may capture a single joint; multijoints such as the shoulder, elbow and wrist; or a combination of joints and an ambulatory aid, which serves as the extension of the upper arm. With advances in software and hardware, new models continuously arise due to the clinical questions at hand. When designing a biomechanical upper extremity model, several key components must be determined. These include deciding on the anatomic segments of the model, the number of markers and placement on bony landmarks, the definition of joint coordinate systems, and the description of the joint motions. It is critical to apply the proper model to further our understanding of pathologic populations.

Control of dynamic foot-ground interactions in male and female soccer athletes: females exhibit reduced dexterity and higher limb stiffness during landing.

PubMed

Lyle, Mark A; Valero-Cuevas, Francisco J; Gregor, Robert J; Powers, Christopher M

2014-01-22

Controlling dynamic interactions between the lower limb and ground is important for skilled locomotion and may influence injury risk in athletes. It is well known that female athletes sustain anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) tears at higher rates than male athletes, and exhibit lower extremity biomechanics thought to increase injury risk during sport maneuvers. The purpose of this study was to examine whether lower extremity dexterity (LED)--the ability to dynamically control endpoint force magnitude and direction as quantified by compressing an unstable spring with the lower limb at submaximal forces--is a potential contributing factor to the "at-risk" movement behavior exhibited by female athletes. We tested this hypothesis by comparing LED-test performance and single-limb drop jump biomechanics between 14 female and 14 male high school soccer players. We found that female athletes exhibited reduced LED-test performance (p=0.001) and higher limb stiffness during landing (p=0.008) calculated on average within 51 ms of foot contact. Females also exhibited higher coactivation at the ankle (p=0.001) and knee (p=0.02) before landing. No sex differences in sagittal plane joint angles and center of mass velocity at foot contact were observed. Collectively, our results raise the possibility that the higher leg stiffness observed in females during landing is an anticipatory behavior due in part to reduced lower extremity dexterity. The reduced lower extremity dexterity and compensatory stiffening strategy may contribute to the heightened risk of ACL injury in this population. © 2013 Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Synchrony, Weather, and Cycles in Southern Pine Beetle (Coleoptera: Curculionidae).

PubMed

Reeve, John D

2018-02-08

Spatial synchrony and cycles are common features of forest insect pests, but are often studied as separate phenomenon. Using time series of timber damage caused by Dendroctonus frontalis Zimmermann (Coleoptera: Curculionidae) (southern pine beetle) in 10 states within the southern United States, this study examines synchrony in D. frontalis abundance, the synchronizing effects of temperature extremes, and the evidence for shared cycles among state populations. Cross-correlation and cluster analyses are used to quantify synchrony across a range of geographic distances and to identify groups of states with synchronous dynamics. Similar techniques are used to quantify spatial synchrony in temperature extremes and to examine their relationship to D. frontalis fluctuations. Cross-wavelet analysis is then used to examine pairs of time series for shared cycles. These analyses suggest there is substantial synchrony among states in D. frontalis fluctuations, and there are regional groups of states with similar dynamics. Synchrony in D. frontalis fluctuations also appears related to spatial synchrony in summer and winter temperature extremes. The cross-wavelet results suggest that D. frontalis dynamics may differ among regions and are not stationary. Significant oscillations were present in some states over certain time intervals, suggesting an endogenous feedback mechanism. Management of D. frontalis outbreaks could potentially benefit from a multistate regional approach because populations are synchronous on this level. Extreme summer temperatures are likely to become the most important synchronizing agent due to climate change. © The Author(s) 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Control of dynamic foot-ground interactions in male and female soccer athletes: Females exhibit reduced dexterity and higher limb stiffness during landing

PubMed Central

Lyle, Mark A.; Valero-Cuevas, Francisco J.; Gregor, Robert J.; Powers, Christopher M.

2014-01-01

Controlling dynamic interactions between the lower limb and ground is important for skilled locomotion and may influence injury risk in athletes. It is well known that female athletes sustain anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) tears at higher rates than male athletes, and exhibit lower extremity biomechanics thought to increase injury risk during sport maneuvers. The purpose of this study was to examine whether lower extremity dexterity (LED) – the ability to dynamically control endpoint force magnitude and direction as quantified by compressing an unstable spring with the lower limb at submaximal forces – is a potential contributing factor to the “at-risk” movement behavior exhibited by female athletes. We tested this hypothesis by comparing LED-test performance and single-limb drop jump biomechanics between 14 female and 14 male high school soccer players. We found that female athletes exhibited reduced LED-test performance (p=0.001) and higher limb stiffness during landing (p=0.008) calculated on average within 51 ms of foot contact. Females also exhibited higher coactivation at the ankle (p=0.001) and knee (p=0.02) before landing. No sex differences in sagittal plane joint angles and center of mass velocity at foot contact were observed. Collectively, our results raise the possibility that the higher leg stiffness observed in females during landing is an anticipatory behavior due in part to reduced lower extremity dexterity. The reduced lower extremity dexterity and compensatory stiffening strategy may contribute to the heightened risk of ACL injury in this population. PMID:24275440

Critical illness polyneuropathy: a case report.

PubMed

Celik, Canan; Ucan, Halil; Alemdaroglu, Ebru; Oktay, Fugen

2011-01-01

Critical illness polyneuropathy (CIP) is defined as a common complication of critically ilness patients who were admitted to the intensive care unit due to sepsis, multiple trauma and/or multi-organ failure. We aimed to present a patient who was diagnosed as CIP. He was admitted to our outpatient clinic due to weakness and pain in his lower extremities. He had been followed in an intensive care unit due to suicid five months ago. There were symmetrically and predominantly muscle weakness, sensory impairment, absence of deep tendon reflexes in his lower extremities. Electrophysiological evaluation demonstrated motor and sensory axonal distal polyneuropathy predominantly in lower extremities. At follow up, he had high fever, and elevated acute phase responses. Therefore source of infection was investigated and was suspected to a diagnosis of infective endocarditis. He was discharged to be hospitalized in cardiology clinic. With this case, we think that physiatrists should take into consideration a diagnosis of critical illness polyneuropathy in patients with symmetric motor weakness. In CIP, muscle weakness, sensory loss, neuropathic pain, and autonomic problems lengthened the rehabilitation period. Due to a diagnosis of infective endocarditis in our case, we point out that source of infection should be carefully investigated if there is acute phase responses in CIP patients even if during rehabilitation period.

Impacts of extreme events of drought and flood on local communities of Amazon basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Borma, L. D.; Roballo, S.; Zauner, M.; Nascimento, V. F.

2013-05-01

The analysis of drought events of 1997/98, 2005 and 2010 in terms of discharge anomalies in the Amazon region confirmed previous findings, such as: a) the influence of the El Niño in more than one hydrological year; b) the increase of the influence of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation of 1998, 2005 and 2010 drought events; c) the low levels of discharge observed in the 2010 drought are attributed to the association of discharge anomalies of the northern and southern tributaries of the Amazon river, and d) the 2010 drought lasted around 1 month (August to November) more than the other drought events analized here. The riverine communities located along the river banks of Solimões/Amazonas suit their economic activities to the oscillation of the water level. In general, low water periods favor the access to important sources of food such as fish and livestock, still allowing crop cultivation on fertile agricultural areas of the floodplain. Conversely, periods of drought increases the difficulties of transport and drinking water supply. During the high water, access to the main food supply (described above) are greatly hampered. However, the floods are recognized as an importance process of natural fertilization. Thus, despite the political, social and economic shortcomings, the local community has, since the pre-colonial period, learned to get the best of each season, providing local, regional and national markets with varzea products. During periods of extreme weather, however, the advantages of each season appear to be reduced, and the drawbacks increased. In fact, during flooding extremes, the access to primary sources of food is hampered by a long period of time and families find themselves forced to leave their homes, eventually losing them. Analysis of flow data to the extreme flooding of 2009, indicate a period of about 6 months of positive anomalies discharge (occurring mainly during high water). At the same time, Civil Defense data points to a contingent of about 50% of rural homeless during this event. On the ther side, during the extreme droughts, crops and cattle are likely to perish due to drought. The prolonged dry season threatens local ichthyofauna, promoting an increase in fish mortality. In 1997/98 and 2005 episodes were recorded about 3 months of negative anomalies of discharge, while in 2010, there were about 4 months of negative anomalies during the low water period. According to the data obtained from the Civil Defense, flood events would be more impactful to the local community than the drought ones. However, the absence of quantitative indicators hinders a more precise analysis of the real impacts of drought and flood events in the region. In fact, during the dry season two aspects of extreme importance need to be better addressed: i) the fact that the population of one of the wettest regions of the planet does not have a good water supply for human being, and ii) what are the impacts of extreme drought on the cycle of reproduction of species of local fish fauna?

Water-Borne Diseases and Extreme Weather Events in Cambodia: Review of Impacts and Implications of Climate Change

PubMed Central

Davies, Grace I.; McIver, Lachlan; Kim, Yoonhee; Hashizume, Masahiro; Iddings, Steven; Chan, Vibol

2014-01-01

Cambodia is prone to extreme weather events, especially floods, droughts and typhoons. Climate change is predicted to increase the frequency and intensity of such events. The Cambodian population is highly vulnerable to the impacts of these events due to poverty; malnutrition; agricultural dependence; settlements in flood-prone areas, and public health, governance and technological limitations. Yet little is known about the health impacts of extreme weather events in Cambodia. Given the extremely low adaptive capacity of the population, this is a crucial knowledge gap. A literature review of the health impacts of floods, droughts and typhoons in Cambodia was conducted, with regional and global information reviewed where Cambodia-specific literature was lacking. Water-borne diseases are of particular concern in Cambodia, in the face of extreme weather events and climate change, due to, inter alia, a high pre-existing burden of diseases such as diarrhoeal illness and a lack of improved sanitation infrastructure in rural areas. A time-series analysis under quasi-Poisson distribution was used to evaluate the association between floods and diarrhoeal disease incidence in Cambodian children between 2001 and 2012 in 16 Cambodian provinces. Floods were significantly associated with increased diarrhoeal disease in two provinces, while the analysis conducted suggested a possible protective effect from toilets and piped water. Addressing the specific, local pre-existing vulnerabilities is vital to promoting population health resilience and strengthening adaptive capacity to extreme weather events and climate change in Cambodia. PMID:25546280

Water-borne diseases and extreme weather events in Cambodia: review of impacts and implications of climate change.

PubMed

Davies, Grace I; McIver, Lachlan; Kim, Yoonhee; Hashizume, Masahiro; Iddings, Steven; Chan, Vibol

2014-12-23

Cambodia is prone to extreme weather events, especially floods, droughts and typhoons. Climate change is predicted to increase the frequency and intensity of such events. The Cambodian population is highly vulnerable to the impacts of these events due to poverty; malnutrition; agricultural dependence; settlements in flood-prone areas, and public health, governance and technological limitations. Yet little is known about the health impacts of extreme weather events in Cambodia. Given the extremely low adaptive capacity of the population, this is a crucial knowledge gap. A literature review of the health impacts of floods, droughts and typhoons in Cambodia was conducted, with regional and global information reviewed where Cambodia-specific literature was lacking. Water-borne diseases are of particular concern in Cambodia, in the face of extreme weather events and climate change, due to, inter alia, a high pre-existing burden of diseases such as diarrhoeal illness and a lack of improved sanitation infrastructure in rural areas. A time-series analysis under quasi-Poisson distribution was used to evaluate the association between floods and diarrhoeal disease incidence in Cambodian children between 2001 and 2012 in 16 Cambodian provinces. Floods were significantly associated with increased diarrhoeal disease in two provinces, while the analysis conducted suggested a possible protective effect from toilets and piped water. Addressing the specific, local pre-existing vulnerabilities is vital to promoting population health resilience and strengthening adaptive capacity to extreme weather events and climate change in Cambodia.

Regional trends in short-duration precipitation extremes: a flexible multivariate monotone quantile regression approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cannon, Alex

2017-04-01

Estimating historical trends in short-duration rainfall extremes at regional and local scales is challenging due to low signal-to-noise ratios and the limited availability of homogenized observational data. In addition to being of scientific interest, trends in rainfall extremes are of practical importance, as their presence calls into question the stationarity assumptions that underpin traditional engineering and infrastructure design practice. Even with these fundamental challenges, increasingly complex questions are being asked about time series of extremes. For instance, users may not only want to know whether or not rainfall extremes have changed over time, they may also want information on the modulation of trends by large-scale climate modes or on the nonstationarity of trends (e.g., identifying hiatus periods or periods of accelerating positive trends). Efforts have thus been devoted to the development and application of more robust and powerful statistical estimators for regional and local scale trends. While a standard nonparametric method like the regional Mann-Kendall test, which tests for the presence of monotonic trends (i.e., strictly non-decreasing or non-increasing changes), makes fewer assumptions than parametric methods and pools information from stations within a region, it is not designed to visualize detected trends, include information from covariates, or answer questions about the rate of change in trends. As a remedy, monotone quantile regression (MQR) has been developed as a nonparametric alternative that can be used to estimate a common monotonic trend in extremes at multiple stations. Quantile regression makes efficient use of data by directly estimating conditional quantiles based on information from all rainfall data in a region, i.e., without having to precompute the sample quantiles. The MQR method is also flexible and can be used to visualize and analyze the nonlinearity of the detected trend. However, it is fundamentally a univariate technique, and cannot incorporate information from additional covariates, for example ENSO state or physiographic controls on extreme rainfall within a region. Here, the univariate MQR model is extended to allow the use of multiple covariates. Multivariate monotone quantile regression (MMQR) is based on a single hidden-layer feedforward network with the quantile regression error function and partial monotonicity constraints. The MMQR model is demonstrated via Monte Carlo simulations and the estimation and visualization of regional trends in moderate rainfall extremes based on homogenized sub-daily precipitation data at stations in Canada.

Alignment of a multilayer-coated imaging system using extreme ultraviolet Foucault and Ronchi interferometric testing

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ray-Chaudhuri, A.K.; Ng, W.; Cerrina, F.

1995-11-01

Multilayer-coated imaging systems for extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography at 13 nm represent a significant challenge for alignment and characterization. The standard practice of utilizing visible light interferometry fundamentally provides an incomplete picture since this technique fails to account for phase effects induced by the multilayer coating. Thus the development of optical techniques at the functional EUV wavelength is required. We present the development of two EUV optical tests based on Foucault and Ronchi techniques. These relatively simple techniques are extremely sensitive due to the factor of 50 reduction in wavelength. Both techniques were utilized to align a Mo--Si multilayer-coated Schwarzschildmore » camera. By varying the illumination wavelength, phase shift effects due to the interplay of multilayer coating and incident angle were uniquely detected. {copyright} {ital 1995} {ital American} {ital Vacuum} {ital Society}« less

More tornadoes in the most extreme U.S. tornado outbreaks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tippett, Michael K.; Lepore, Chiara; Cohen, Joel E.

2016-12-01

Tornadoes and severe thunderstorms kill people and damage property every year. Estimated U.S. insured losses due to severe thunderstorms in the first half of 2016 were $8.5 billion (US). The largest U.S. effects of tornadoes result from tornado outbreaks, which are sequences of tornadoes that occur in close succession. Here, using extreme value analysis, we find that the frequency of U.S. outbreaks with many tornadoes is increasing and that it is increasing faster for more extreme outbreaks. We model this behavior by extreme value distributions with parameters that are linear functions of time or of some indicators of multidecadal climatic variability. Extreme meteorological environments associated with severe thunderstorms show consistent upward trends, but the trends do not resemble those currently expected to result from global warming.

Daily temperature and precipitation extremes in the Baltic Sea region derived from the BaltAn65+ reanalysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Toll, Velle; Post, Piia

2018-04-01

Daily 2-m temperature and precipitation extremes in the Baltic Sea region for the time period of 1965-2005 is studied based on data from the BaltAn65 + high resolution atmospheric reanalysis. Moreover, the ability of regional reanalysis to capture extremes is analysed by comparing the reanalysis data to gridded observations. The shortcomings in the simulation of the minimum temperatures over the northern part of the region and in the simulation of the extreme precipitation over the Scandinavian mountains in the BaltAn65+ reanalysis data are detected and analysed. Temporal trends in the temperature and precipitation extremes in the Baltic Sea region, with the largest increases in temperature and precipitation in winter, are detected based on both gridded observations and the BaltAn65+ reanalysis data. However, the reanalysis is not able to capture all of the regional trends in the extremes in the observations due to the shortcomings in the simulation of the extremes.

Analysis of the dependence of extreme rainfalls

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Padoan, Simone; Ancey, Christophe; Parlange, Marc

2010-05-01

The aim of spatial analysis is to quantitatively describe the behavior of environmental phenomena such as precipitation levels, wind speed or daily temperatures. A number of generic approaches to spatial modeling have been developed[1], but these are not necessarily ideal for handling extremal aspects given their focus on mean process levels. The areal modelling of the extremes of a natural process observed at points in space is important in environmental statistics; for example, understanding extremal spatial rainfall is crucial in flood protection. In light of recent concerns over climate change, the use of robust mathematical and statistical methods for such analyses has grown in importance. Multivariate extreme value models and the class of maxstable processes [2] have a similar asymptotic motivation to the univariate Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution , but providing a general approach to modeling extreme processes incorporating temporal or spatial dependence. Statistical methods for max-stable processes and data analyses of practical problems are discussed by [3] and [4]. This work illustrates methods to the statistical modelling of spatial extremes and gives examples of their use by means of a real extremal data analysis of Switzerland precipitation levels. [1] Cressie, N. A. C. (1993). Statistics for Spatial Data. Wiley, New York. [2] de Haan, L and Ferreria A. (2006). Extreme Value Theory An Introduction. Springer, USA. [3] Padoan, S. A., Ribatet, M and Sisson, S. A. (2009). Likelihood-Based Inference for Max-Stable Processes. Journal of the American Statistical Association, Theory & Methods. In press. [4] Davison, A. C. and Gholamrezaee, M. (2009), Geostatistics of extremes. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B. To appear.

Challenges in Modelling of Lightning-Induced Delamination; Effect of Temperature-Dependent Interfacial Properties

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Naghipour, P.; Pineda, E. J.; Arnold, S.

2014-01-01

Lightning is a major cause of damage in laminated composite aerospace structures during flight. Due to the dielectric nature of Carbon fiber reinforced polymers (CFRPs), the high energy induced by lightning strike transforms into extreme, localized surface temperature accompanied with a high-pressure shockwave resulting in extensive damage. It is crucial to develop a numerical tool capable of predicting the damage induced from a lightning strike to supplement extremely expensive lightning experiments. Delamination is one of the most significant failure modes resulting from a lightning strike. It can be extended well beyond the visible damage zone, and requires sophisticated techniques and equipment to detect. A popular technique used to model delamination is the cohesive zone approach. Since the loading induced from a lightning strike event is assumed to consist of extreme localized heating, the cohesive zone formulation should additionally account for temperature effects. However, the sensitivity to this dependency remains unknown. Therefore, the major focus point of this work is to investigate the importance of this dependency via defining various temperature dependency profiles for the cohesive zone properties, and analyzing the corresponding delamination area. Thus, a detailed numerical model consisting of multidirectional composite plies with temperature-dependent cohesive elements in between is subjected to lightning (excessive amount of heat and pressure) and delamination/damage expansion is studied under specified conditions.

Extreme Warming Challenges Sentinel Status of Kelp Forests as Indicators of Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miller, R. J.; Reed, D.; Washburn, L.; Rassweiler, A.; Bell, T. W.; Harrer, S.

2016-12-01

The ecological effects of global warming are expected to be large, but are proving difficult and costly to measure. This has led to a growing interest in using sentinel species as early warning indicators of impending climate change effects on entire ecosystems, raising awareness of the importance of verifying that such conservation shortcuts have sound biological foundations. A recent large-scale warming event in the North Pacific Ocean of unprecedented magnitude and duration allowed us to evaluate the sentinel status of giant kelp, a coastal foundation species that thrives in cold, nutrient-rich waters and considered sensitive to warming. Here we show that giant kelp did not presage ecosystem effects of extreme warming off southern California despite its expected vulnerability. Fluctuations in the biomass of giant kelp, understory algae, invertebrates and fish remained within historical ranges despite 34 months of above average temperatures and below average nutrients. Sea stars and sea urchins were exceptions, plummeting due to disease outbreaks linked to the warming. Our results challenge the IPCC predictions about the vulnerability of kelp-dominated systems to extreme warming events and question their use as early indicators of climate change. The resilience of giant kelp to unprecedented warming not only questions our understanding of kelp ecology, but exposes the risk of relying on supposed sentinel species that are assumed to be very sensitive to climate change.

Is "Warm Arctic, Cold Continent" A Fingerprint Pattern of Climate Change?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoerling, M. P.; Sun, L.; Perlwitz, J.

2015-12-01

Cold winters and cold waves have recently occurred in Europe, central Asia and the Midwest to eastern United States, even as global mean temperatures set record highs and Arctic amplification of surface warming continued. Since 1979, Central Asia winter temperatures have in fact declined. Conjecture has it that more cold extremes over the mid-latitude continents should occur due to global warming and the impacts of Arctic sea ice loss. A Northern Hemisphere temperature signal termed the "Warm Arctic, Cold Continent" pattern has thus been surmised. Here we use a multi-model approach to test the hypothesis that such a pattern is indeed symptomatic of climate change. Diagnosis of a large model ensemble of historical climate simulations shows some individual realizations to yield cooling trends over Central Asia, but importantly the vast majority show warming. The observed cooling has thus likely been a low probability state of internal variability, not a fingerprint of forced climate change. We show that daily temperature variations over continents decline in winter due to global warming, and cold waves become less likely. This is partly related to diminution of Arctic cold air reservoirs due to warming-induced sea ice loss. Nonetheless, we find some evidence and present a physical basis that Arctic sea ice loss alone can induce a winter cooling over Central Asia, though with a magnitude that is appreciably smaller than the overall radiative-forced warming signal. Our results support the argument that recent cooling trends over central Asia, and cold extreme events over the winter continents, have principally resulted from atmospheric internal variability and have been neither a forced response to Arctic seas ice loss nor a symptom of global warming. The paradigm of climate change is thus better expressed as "Warm Arctic, Warm Continent" for the NH winter.

Considerations in development and implementation of elasto-viscoplastic constitutive model for high temperature applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Riff, Richard

1988-01-01

The prediction of inelastic behavior of metallic materials at elevated temperatures has increased in importance in recent years. The operating conditions within the hot section of a rocket motor or a modern gas turbine engine present an extremely harsh thermomechanical environment. Large thermal transients are induced each time the engine is started or shut down. Additional thermal transients from an elevated ambient occur whenever the engine power level is adjusted to meet flight requirements. The structural elements employed in such hot sections, as well as any engine components located therein, must be capable of withstanding such extreme conditions. Failure of a component would, due to the critical nature of the hot section, lead to an immediate and catastrophic loss in power. Consequently, assuring satisfactory long term performance for such components is a major concern. Nonisothermal loading of structures often causes excursion of stress well into the inelastic range. Moreover, the influence of geometry changes on the response is also significant in most cases. Therefore, both material and geometric nonlinear effects are considered.

Hyperemesis gravidarum presenting as jaundice and transient hyperthyroidism complicated with acute pancreatitis.

PubMed

Weng, Meng Tzu; Wei, Shu Chen; Wong, Jau Min; Chang, Tien Chun

2005-03-01

Hyperemesis gravidarum is an extreme form of nausea and vomiting during pregnancy. Its presenting symptoms include vomiting, disturbed nutrition, electrolyte imbalance, ketosis, extreme weight loss, renal and/or liver damage. It is rare for a hyperemesis gravidarum patient to present with jaundice, hyperthyroidism and idiopathic acute pancreatitis during the same hospitalization period. Here, we report such a case. A 25-year-old pregnant woman without underlying liver or thyroid disease was admitted due to jaundice noted for 2 days at 8 weeks of gestational age. Hyperthyroidism symptoms of tachycardia and finger tremor also bothered her. After treatment with parenteral fluid and antithyroid agents, her clinical condition improved. However, an episode of idiopathic pancreatitis occurred after nausea and vomiting subsided. Bowel rest with parenteral fluid and nutrition supplement was given and the increased pancreatic enzyme level gradually subsided. Follow-up liver and thyroid function were normal after gestational age of 26 weeks. She delivered a healthy female baby without low birth body weight at gestational age of 39 weeks. Rapid diagnosis and supportive care are important for the hyperemesis gravidarum patient with the complication of acute pancreatitis.

Pro: Heat stress as a potential etiology of Mesoamerican and Sri Lankan nephropathy: a late night consult with Sherlock Holmes.

PubMed

Johnson, Richard J

2017-04-01

Epidemics of chronic kidney disease are now recognized in Central America, Mexico, India and Sri Lanka, and there is also some evidence that similar epidemics may be occurring in the USA, Thailand and elsewhere. A common denominator for each location is manually working outside in extremely hot environments. Here we review the evidence that the primary etiology may be heat stress related to repeated subclinical or clinical acute kidney injury that eventually manifests as chronic kidney disease. In some aspects, the disease may manifest as subclinical heat stroke, subclinical rhabdomyolysis or a subclinical tumor lysis syndrome. While toxins could be involved, it would be difficult to attribute this as a main mechanism, given the wide range of occupations and geographic regions manifesting this disease. While some of the epidemics may be due to better reporting, we believe the most important reasons are increasing heat extremes (heat waves) coupled with hydration with sugary or, less commonly, alcoholic beverages. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of ERA-EDTA. All rights reserved.

Integrating physiological threshold experiments with climate modeling to project mangrove species' range expansion.

PubMed

Cavanaugh, Kyle C; Parker, John D; Cook-Patton, Susan C; Feller, Ilka C; Williams, A Park; Kellner, James R

2015-05-01

Predictions of climate-related shifts in species ranges have largely been based on correlative models. Due to limitations of these models, there is a need for more integration of experimental approaches when studying impacts of climate change on species distributions. Here, we used controlled experiments to identify physiological thresholds that control poleward range limits of three species of mangroves found in North America. We found that all three species exhibited a threshold response to extreme cold, but freeze tolerance thresholds varied among species. From these experiments, we developed a climate metric, freeze degree days (FDD), which incorporates both the intensity and the frequency of freezes. When included in distribution models, FDD accurately predicted mangrove presence/absence. Using 28 years of satellite imagery, we linked FDD to observed changes in mangrove abundance in Florida, further exemplifying the importance of extreme cold. We then used downscaled climate projections of FDD to project that these range limits will move northward by 2.2-3.2 km yr(-1) over the next 50 years. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

A Case of Scurvy-Uncommon Disease-Presenting as Panniculitis, Purpura, and Oligoarthritis.

PubMed

Mintsoulis, Danielle; Milman, Nataliya; Fahim, Simone

2016-11-01

Scurvy remains prevalent in certain populations, including addicts, people of low socioeconomic status, and the severely malnourished. It classically presents as follicular hyperkeratosis and perifollicular hemorrhage of the lower extremities, as well as bleeding in other areas such as the gingiva and joints. This case presentation and literature review highlights the common pathophysiological findings associated with scurvy and current methods of diagnosis and treatment. The patient described in this case presented with sudden oligoarthritis and purpura of the lower extremities. Following progression of the patient's symptoms and a low vitamin C serum concentration, the patient was treated with vitamin C supplementation and dramatically improved. This was considered to be the result of an underlying vitamin C deficiency secondary to insufficient fruit and vegetable intake due to allergies. This case highlights the importance of maintaining a high index of suspicion for scurvy in atypical presentations of purpura not better explained by another disease or in additional populations at high risk of vitamin C deficiency. Early diagnosis by either a primary care physician or dermatologist can expedite the treatment process and improve patient prognosis. © The Author(s) 2016.

High Energy Interactions in Massive Binaries: An Application to a Most Mysterious Binary

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Corcoran, Michael

2013-01-01

Extremely massive stars (50M and above) are exceedingly rare in the local Universe but are believed to have composed the entire first generation of stars, which lived fast, died young and left behind the first generation of black holes and set the stage for the formation of lower mass stars suitable to support life. There are significant uncertainties about how this happened (and how it still happens), mostly due to our poor knowledge of how stars change mass as they evolve. Extremely massive stars give mass back to the ISM via strong radiatively-driven winds and sometimes through sporadic eruptions of the most massive and brightest stars. Such mass loss plays an important role in the chemical and dynamical evolution of the local interstellar medium prior to the supernova explosion. Below we discuss how high energy thermal (and, in some cases, non-thermal) emission, along with modern simulations in 2 and 3 dimensions, can be used to help determine a physically realistic picture of mass loss in a well-studied, mysterious system.

Analysis of the 20th November 2003 Extreme Geomagnetic Storm using CTIPe Model and GNSS Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fernandez-Gomez, I.; Borries, C.; Codrescu, M.

2016-12-01

The ionospheric instabilities produced by solar activity generate disturbances in ionospheric density (ionospheric storms) with important terrestrial consequences such as disrupting communications and positioning. During the 20th November 2003 extreme geomagnetic storm, significant perturbations were produced in the ionosphere - thermosphere system. In this work, we replicate how this system responded to the onset of this particular storm, using the Coupled Thermosphere Ionosphere Plasmasphere electrodynamics physics based model. CTIPe simulates the changes in the neutral winds, temperature, composition and electron densities. Although modelling the ionosphere under this conditions is a challenging task due to energy flow uncertainties, the model reproduces some of the storm features necessary to interpret the physical mechanisms behind the Total Electron Content (TEC) increase and the dramatic changes in composition during this event.Corresponding effects are observed in the TEC simulations from other physics based models and from observations derived from Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) and ground-based measurements.The study illustrates the necessity of using both, measurements and models, to have a complete understanding of the processes that are most likely responsible for the observed effects.

An application of extreme value theory to the management of a hydroelectric dam.

PubMed

Minkah, Richard

2016-01-01

Assessing the probability of very low or high water levels is an important issue in the management of hydroelectric dams. In the case of the Akosombo dam, very low and high water levels result in load shedding of electrical power and flooding in communities downstream respectively. In this paper, we use extreme value theory to estimate the probability and return period of very low water levels that can result in load shedding or a complete shutdown of the dam's operations. In addition, we assess the probability and return period of high water levels near the height of the dam and beyond. This provides a framework for a possible extension of the dam to sustain the generation of electrical power and reduce the frequency of spillage that causes flooding in communities downstream. The results show that an extension of the dam can reduce the probability and prolong the return period of a flood. In addition, we found a negligible probability of a complete shutdown of the dam due to inadequate water level.

Lifetime estimation of extreme-ultraviolet pellicle at 500 W source power by thermal stress analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, Eun-Sang; Ban, Chung-Hyun; Park, Jae-Hun; Oh, Hye-Keun

2017-10-01

The analysis of the thermal stress and the extreme-ultraviolet (EUV) pellicle is important since the pellicle could be easily damaged since the thickness of the pellicle is 50 nm thin due to 90% required EUV transmission. One of the solution is using a high emissivity metallic material on the both sides of the pellicle and it can lower the thermal stress. However, using a metallic coating on pellicle core which is usually consist of silicon group can decrease the EUV transmission compared to using a single core layer pellicle only. Therefore, we optimized thermal and optical properties of the pellicle and elect three types of the pellicle. In this paper we simulated our optimized pellicles with 500W source power. The result shows that the difference of the thermal stress is small for each case. Therefore, our result also shows that using a high emissivity coating is necessary since the cooling of the pellicle strongly depends on emissivity and it can lower the stress effectively even at high EUV source power.

Quasiparticle Lifetime Broadening in Resonant X-ray Scattering of NH4NO3.

PubMed

Vinson, John; Jach, Terrence; Müller, Matthias; Unterumsberger, Rainer; Beckhoff, Burkhard

2016-07-15

It has been previously shown that two effects cause dramatic changes in the x-ray absorption and emission spectra from the N K edge of the insulating crystal ammonium nitrate. First, vibrational disorder causes major changes in the absorption spectrum, originating not only from the thermal population of phonons, but, significantly, from zero-point motion as well. Second, the anomalously large broadening ( ~ 4 eV) of the emission originating from nitrate σ states is due to unusually short lifetimes of quasiparticles in an otherwise extremely narrow band. In this work we investigate the coupling of these effects to core and valence excitons that are created as the initial x-ray excitation energy is progressively reduced toward the N edge. Using a GW /Bethe-Salpeter approach, we show the extent to which this anomalous broadening is captured by the GW approximation. The data and calculations demonstrate the importance that the complex self-energies (finite lifetimes) of valence bands have on the interpretation of emission spectra. We produce a scheme to explain why extreme lifetimes should appear in σ states of other similar compounds.

Challenges for Ecosystem Services Provided by Coral Reefs In the Face of Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kikuchi, R. K.; Elliff, C. I.

2014-12-01

Coral reefs provide many ecosystem services of which coastal populations are especially dependent upon, both in cases of extreme events and in daily life. However, adaptation to climate change is still relatively unknown territory regarding the ecosystem services provided by coastal environments, such as coral reefs. Management strategies usually consider climate change as a distant issue and rarely include ecosystem services in decision-making. Coral reefs are among the most vulnerable environments to climate change, considering the impact that increased ocean temperature and acidity have on the organisms that compose this ecosystem. If no actions are taken, the most likely scenario to occur will be of extreme decline in the ecosystem services provided by coral reefs. Loss of biodiversity due to the pressures of ocean warming and acidification will lead to increased price of seafood products, negative impact on food security, and ecological imbalances. Also, sea-level rise and fragile structures due to carbonate dissolution will increase vulnerability to storms, which can lead to shoreline erosion and ultimately threaten coastal communities. Both these conditions will undoubtedly affect recreation and tourism, which are often the most important use values in the case of coral reef systems. Adaptation strategies to climate change must take on an ecosystem-based approach with continuous monitoring programs, so that multiple ecosystem services are considered and not only retrospective trends are analyzed. Brazilian coral reefs have been monitored on a regular basis since 2000 and, considering that these marginal coral reefs of the eastern Atlantic are naturally under stressful conditions (e.g. high sedimentation rates), inshore reefs of Brazil, such as those in Tinharé-Boipeba, have shown lower vitality rates due to greater impacts from the proximity to the coastal area (e.g. pollution, overfishing, sediment run-off). This chronic negative impact must be addressed to increase resilience and guarantee the adaptation of this ecosystem to climate change. Thus, considering that the majority of the marine ecosystem services we benefit from are provided from coastal habitats, of which coral reefs play an important role, the challenge at hand is in fact the interaction between local factors and climate change

The influence of common free radicals and antioxidants on development of Alzheimer's Disease.

PubMed

Wojtunik-Kulesza, Karolina A; Oniszczuk, Anna; Oniszczuk, Tomasz; Waksmundzka-Hajnos, Monika

2016-03-01

Alzheimer's Disease (AD) is one of the most important neurodegenerative disorders in the 21st century for the continually aging population. Despite an increasing number of patients, there are only few drugs to treat the disease. Numerous studies have shown several causes of the disorder, one of the most important being oxidative stress. Oxidative stress is connected with a disturbance between the levels of free radicals and antioxidants in organisms. Solutions to this problem are antioxidants, which counteract the negative impact of the reactive molecules. Unfortunately, the currently available drugs against AD do not exhibit activity toward these structures. Due to the fact that natural substances are extremely significant in new drug development, numerous studies are focused on substances which exhibit a few activities including antioxidants and other anti-AD behaviors. This review article presents the most important studies connected with the influence of free radicals on development of AD and antioxidants as potential drugs toward AD. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Image Segmentation for Connectomics Using Machine Learning

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tasdizen, Tolga; Seyedhosseini, Mojtaba; Liu, TIng

Reconstruction of neural circuits at the microscopic scale of individual neurons and synapses, also known as connectomics, is an important challenge for neuroscience. While an important motivation of connectomics is providing anatomical ground truth for neural circuit models, the ability to decipher neural wiring maps at the individual cell level is also important in studies of many neurodegenerative diseases. Reconstruction of a neural circuit at the individual neuron level requires the use of electron microscopy images due to their extremely high resolution. Computational challenges include pixel-by-pixel annotation of these images into classes such as cell membrane, mitochondria and synaptic vesiclesmore » and the segmentation of individual neurons. State-of-the-art image analysis solutions are still far from the accuracy and robustness of human vision and biologists are still limited to studying small neural circuits using mostly manual analysis. In this chapter, we describe our image analysis pipeline that makes use of novel supervised machine learning techniques to tackle this problem.« less

Delivery of growth factors for tissue regeneration and wound healing.

PubMed

Koria, Piyush

2012-06-01

Growth factors are soluble secreted proteins capable of affecting a variety of cellular processes important for tissue regeneration. Consequently, the self-healing capacity of patients can be augmented by artificially enhancing one or more processes important for healing through the application of growth factors. However, their application in clinics remains limited due to lack of robust delivery systems and biomaterial carriers. Interestingly, all clinically approved therapies involving growth factors utilize some sort of a biomaterial carrier for growth factor delivery. This suggests that biomaterial delivery systems are extremely important for successful usage of growth factors in regenerative medicine. This review outlines the role of growth factors in tissue regeneration, and their application in both pre-clinical animal models of regeneration and clinical trials is discussed. Additionally, current status of biomaterial substrates and sophisticated delivery systems such as nanoparticles for delivery of exogenous growth factors and peptides in humans are reviewed. Finally, issues and possible future research directions for growth factor therapy in regenerative medicine are discussed.

Extremity fractures associated with ATVs and dirt bikes: a 10-year national epidemiologic study.

PubMed

Lombardo, D J; Jelsema, T; Gambone, A; Weisman, M; Petersen-Fitts, G; Whaley, J D; Sabesan, V J

2017-08-01

Morbidity and mortality of all-terrain vehicles and dirt bikes have been studied, as well as the association of helmet use and head injury. The purpose of this study is to compare and contrast the patterns of extremity fractures associated with ATVs and dirt bikes. We believe there will be unique and potentially preventable injury patterns associated with dirt bikes and three-wheeled ATVs due to the poor stability of these vehicles. Descriptive epidemiology study. The National Electronic Injury Surveillance System (NEISS) was used to acquire data for extremity fractures related to ATV (three wheels, four wheels, and number of wheels undefined) and dirt bike use from 2007 to 2012. Nationwide estimation of injury incidence was determined using NEISS weight calculations. The database yielded an estimate of 229,362 extremity fractures from 2007 to 2012. The incidence rates of extremity fractures associated with ATV and dirt bike use were 3.87 and 6.85 per 1000 participant-years. The largest proportion of all fractures occurred in the shoulder (27.2%), followed by the wrist and lower leg (13.8 and 12.4%, respectively). There were no differences in the distribution of the location of fractures among four-wheeled or unspecified ATVs. However, three-wheeled ATVs and dirt bikes had much larger proportion of lower leg, foot, and ankle fractures compared to the other vehicle types. While upper extremity fractures were the most commonly observed in this database, three-wheeled ATVs and dirt bikes showed increased proportions of lower extremity fractures. Several organizations have previously advocated for better regulation of the sale and use of these specific vehicles due to increased risks. These findings help illustrate some of the specific risks associated with these commonly used vehicles.

Application of RFID technology-upper extremity rehabilitation training.

PubMed

Chen, Chih-Chen; Chen, Yu-Luen; Chen, Shih-Ching

2016-01-01

[Purpose] Upper extremity rehabilitation after an injury is very important. This study proposes radio frequency identification (RFID) technology to improve and enhance the effectiveness of the upper extremity rehabilitation. [Subjects and Methods] People use their upper extremities to conduct daily activities. When recovering from injuries, many patients neglect the importance of rehabilitation, which results in degraded function. This study recorded the training process using the traditional rehabilitation hand gliding cart with a RFID reader, RFID tags in the panel, and a servo host computer. [Results] Clinical evidence, time taken to achieve a full score, counts of missing the specified spots, and Brunnstrom stage of aided recovery, the proximal part of the upper extremity show that the RFID-based upper extremity training significantly and reduce negative impacts of the disability in daily life and activities. [Conclusion] This study combined a hand-gliding cart with an RFID reader, and when patients moved the cart, the movement could be observed via the activated RFID tags. The training data was collected and quantified for a better understanding of the recovery status of the patients. Each of the participating patients made progress as expected.

Climatic extremes improve predictions of spatial patterns of tree species

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zimmermann, N.E.; Yoccoz, N.G.; Edwards, T.C.; Meier, E.S.; Thuiller, W.; Guisan, Antoine; Schmatz, D.R.; Pearman, P.B.

2009-01-01

Understanding niche evolution, dynamics, and the response of species to climate change requires knowledge of the determinants of the environmental niche and species range limits. Mean values of climatic variables are often used in such analyses. In contrast, the increasing frequency of climate extremes suggests the importance of understanding their additional influence on range limits. Here, we assess how measures representing climate extremes (i.e., interannual variability in climate parameters) explain and predict spatial patterns of 11 tree species in Switzerland. We find clear, although comparably small, improvement (+20% in adjusted D2, +8% and +3% in cross-validated True Skill Statistic and area under the receiver operating characteristics curve values) in models that use measures of extremes in addition to means. The primary effect of including information on climate extremes is a correction of local overprediction and underprediction. Our results demonstrate that measures of climate extremes are important for understanding the climatic limits of tree species and assessing species niche characteristics. The inclusion of climate variability likely will improve models of species range limits under future conditions, where changes in mean climate and increased variability are expected.

Contributions of Dynamic and Thermodynamic Scaling in Subdaily Precipitation Extremes in India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ali, Haider; Mishra, Vimal

2018-03-01

Despite the importance of subdaily precipitation extremes for urban areas, the role of dynamic and thermodynamic scaling in changes in precipitation extremes in India remains poorly constrained. Here we estimate contributions from thermodynamic and dynamic scaling on changes in subdaily precipitation extremes for 23 urban locations in India. Subdaily precipitation extremes have become more intense during the last few decades. Moreover, we find a twofold rise in the frequency of subdaily precipitation extremes during 1979-2015, which is faster than the increase in daily precipitation extremes. The contribution of dynamic scaling in this rise in the frequency and intensity of subdaily precipitation extremes is higher than the thermodynamic scaling. Moreover, half-hourly precipitation extremes show higher contributions from the both thermodynamic ( 10%/K) and dynamic ( 15%/K) scaling than daily (6%/K and 9%/K, respectively) extremes indicating the role of warming on the rise in the subdaily precipitation extremes in India. Our findings have implications for better understanding the dynamic response of precipitation extremes under the warming climate over India.

Back to the Future -Precipitation Extremes, Climate Variability, Environmental Planning and Adaptation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barros, A. P.

2008-12-01

--"The last major climatic oscillation peak was about 1856, or 74 years ago. Practically all of our important railroad and public highway work has been done since that time. Most of our parks systems driveways, and roads of all type for auto travel, in the various States, have been completed within the past 30 years, namely, beginning at the very lowest point of our climatic swing (1900-1910). There is every reason to believe, therefore, as the next 20 years comes on apace, we will witness considerable damage to work done during the past regime of weather."-- Schuman, 1931 At the beginning of the 21st century, as at the beginning of the 20th century, the fundamental question is whether the nation is more prepared for natural disasters today than it was eight decades ago. Indeed, the question is whether the best science, engineering and policy tools are in place to prepare for and respond to extreme events. Changes in the risk and magnitude of extreme precipitation events rank among the most studied impacts, and indicators (symptoms) of climatic variations. Extreme precipitation translates generally into extreme flooding, landslides, collapse of lifeline infrastructure, and the breakdown of public health services among others. In approaching the problem of quantifying the risk and magnitude of extreme precipitation events, there are two major challenges: 1) it is difficult to characterize "observed" (20th century) conditions due to the lack of long-term observations - i.e., short and incomplete historical records; and 2) it is difficult to characterize "predicted" (21st century) conditions due to the lack of skill of precipitation forecasts at spatial and temporal scales meaningful for impact studies, and the short-duration of climate model simulations themselves. The first challenge translates in estimating the probability of occurrence (rare) and magnitude (very large) of events that may have not happened yet. The second challenge is that of quantifying uncertainty and separating climatic variability and change from model error. Nonstationarity and persistence at multiple scales confound the problem. From an economics perspective, the unprecedented success of environmental control and "conservation" in the 20th century, present another yet challenge in terms of social expectations and human development, including the right to sustainable (high) quality of life. In this presentation, we illustrate these challenges by considering first the estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation, an engineering design criterion typically used in dam design, and examine how it varies spatially across the continental US according to physiographic region and as a function of climate regime. Second, we explore the spatial and temporal scales that link climate variability to macroscale environmental planning, and the notion of place-based adaptive riskgrade analysis.

Treatment of Cutaneous Leishmaniasis Caused by Leishmania aethiopica: A Systematic Review

PubMed Central

van Griensven, Johan; Gadisa, Endalamaw; Aseffa, Abraham; Hailu, Asrat; Beshah, Abate Mulugeta; Diro, Ermias

2016-01-01

Leishmania aethiopica is the etiological agent of cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) in Ethiopia and can cause severe and complicated cases such as diffuse CL (DCL), mucocutaneous leishmaniasis or extensive CL, requiring systemic treatment. Despite the substantial burden, evidence-based treatment guidelines are lacking. We conducted a systematic review of clinical studies reporting on treatment outcomes of CL due to L aethiopica in order to help identify potentially efficacious medications on CL that can be taken forward for clinical trials. We identified a total of 24 records reporting on 506 treatment episodes of CL presumably due to L aethiopica. The most commonly used drugs were antimonials (n = 201), pentamidine (n = 150) and cryotherapy (n = 103). There were 20 case reports/series, with an overall poor study quality. We only identified two small and/or poor quality randomized controlled trials conducted a long time ago. There were two prospective non-randomized studies reporting on cryotherapy, antimonials and pentamidine. With cryotherapy, cure rates were 60–80%, and 69–85% with antimonials. Pentamidine appeared effective against complicated CL, also in cases non-responsive to antimonials. However, all studies suffered from methodological limitations. Data on miltefosine, paromomycin and liposomal amphotericin B are extremely scarce. Only a few studies are available on DCL. The only potentially effective treatment options for DCL seem to be antimonials with paromomycin in combination or pentamidine, but none have been properly evaluated. In conclusion, the evidence-base for treatment of complicated CL due to L aethiopica is extremely limited. While antimonials remain the most available CL treatment in Ethiopia, their efficacy and safety in CL should be better defined. Most importantly, alternative first line treatments (such as miltefosine or paromomycin) should be explored. High quality trials on CL due to L aethiopica are urgently needed, exploring group sequential methods to evaluate several options in parallel. PMID:26938448

Bias correction method for climate change impact assessment at a basin scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nyunt, C.; Jaranilla-sanchez, P. A.; Yamamoto, A.; Nemoto, T.; Kitsuregawa, M.; Koike, T.

2012-12-01

Climate change impact studies are mainly based on the general circulation models GCM and these studies play an important role to define suitable adaptation strategies for resilient environment in a basin scale management. For this purpose, this study summarized how to select appropriate GCM to decrease the certain uncertainty amount in analysis. This was applied to the Pampanga, Angat and Kaliwa rivers in Luzon Island, the main island of Philippine and these three river basins play important roles in irrigation water supply, municipal water source for Metro Manila. According to the GCM scores of both seasonal evolution of Asia summer monsoon and spatial correlation and root mean squared error of atmospheric variables over the region, finally six GCM is chosen. Next, we develop a complete, efficient and comprehensive statistical bias correction scheme covering extremes events, normal rainfall and frequency of dry period. Due to the coarse resolution and parameterization scheme of GCM, extreme rainfall underestimation, too many rain days with low intensity and poor representation of local seasonality have been known as bias of GCM. Extreme rainfall has unusual characteristics and it should be focused specifically. Estimated maximum extreme rainfall is crucial for planning and design of infrastructures in river basin. Developing countries have limited technical, financial and management resources for implementing adaptation measures and they need detailed information of drought and flood for near future. Traditionally, the analysis of extreme has been examined using annual maximum series (AMS) adjusted to a Gumbel or Lognormal distribution. The drawback is the loss of the second, third etc, largest rainfall. Another approach is partial duration series (PDS) constructed using the values above a selected threshold and permit more than one event per year. The generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) has been used to model PDS and it is the series of excess over a threshold. In this study, the lowest value of AMS of observed is selected as threshold and simultaneously same frequency is considered as extremes in corresponding GCM gridded series. After fitting to GP distribution, bias corrected GCM extreme is found by using the inverse function of observed extremes. The results show it can remove bias effectively. For projected climate, the same transfer function between historical observed and GCM was applied. Moreover, frequency analysis of maximum extreme intensity estimation was done for validation and then approximate for near future by using identical function as past. To fix the error in the number of no rain days of GCM, ranking order statistics is used and define in GCM same as the frequency of wet days in observed station. After this rank, GCM output will be zero and identify same threshold for future projection. Normal rainfall is classified as between threshold of extreme and no rain day. We assume monthly normal rainfall follow gamma distribution. Then, we mapped the CDF of GCM normal rainfall to station's one in each month and bias corrected rainfall is available. In summary, bias of GCM have been addressed efficiently and validated at point scale by seasonal climatology and at all stations for evaluating downscaled rainfall performance. The results show bias corrected and downscaled scheme is good enough for climate impact study.

Black swans, power laws, and dragon-kings: Earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, landslides, wildfires, floods, and SOC models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sachs, M. K.; Yoder, M. R.; Turcotte, D. L.; Rundle, J. B.; Malamud, B. D.

2012-05-01

Extreme events that change global society have been characterized as black swans. The frequency-size distributions of many natural phenomena are often well approximated by power-law (fractal) distributions. An important question is whether the probability of extreme events can be estimated by extrapolating the power-law distributions. Events that exceed these extrapolations have been characterized as dragon-kings. In this paper we consider extreme events for earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, wildfires, landslides and floods. We also consider the extreme event behavior of three models that exhibit self-organized criticality (SOC): the slider-block, forest-fire, and sand-pile models. Since extrapolations using power-laws are widely used in probabilistic hazard assessment, the occurrence of dragon-king events have important practical implications.

Do climate extreme events foster violent civil conflicts? A coincidence analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich; Donges, Jonathan F.; Donner, Reik V.

2014-05-01

Civil conflicts promoted by adverse environmental conditions represent one of the most important potential feedbacks in the global socio-environmental nexus. While the role of climate extremes as a triggering factor is often discussed, no consensus is yet reached about the cause-and-effect relation in the observed data record. Here we present results of a rigorous statistical coincidence analysis based on the Munich Re Inc. extreme events database and the Uppsala conflict data program. We report evidence for statistically significant synchronicity between climate extremes with high economic impact and violent conflicts for various regions, although no coherent global signal emerges from our analysis. Our results indicate the importance of regional vulnerability and might aid to identify hot-spot regions for potential climate-triggered violent social conflicts.

Can Flare Loops Contribute to the White-light Emission of Stellar Superflares?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heinzel, P.; Shibata, K.

2018-06-01

Since the discovery of stellar superflares by the Kepler satellite, these extremely energetic events have been studied in analogy to solar flares. Their white-light (WL) continuum emission has been interpreted as being produced by heated ribbons. In this paper, we compute the WL emission from overlying flare loops depending on their density and temperature and show that, under conditions expected during superflares, the continuum brightening due to extended loop arcades can significantly contribute to stellar flux detected by Kepler. This requires electron densities in the loops of 1012‑1013 cm‑3 or higher. We show that such densities, exceeding those typically present in solar-flare loops, can be reached on M-dwarf and solar-type superflare stars with large starspots and much stronger magnetic fields. Quite importantly, the WL radiation of loops is not very sensitive to their temperature and thus both cool as well as hot loops may contribute. We show that the WL intensity emergent from optically thin loops is lower than the blackbody radiation from flare ribbons, but the contribution of loops to total stellar flux can be quite important due to their significant emitting areas. This new scenario for interpreting superflare emission suggests that the observed WL flux is due to a mixture of the ribbon and loop radiation and can be even loop-dominated during the gradual phase of superflares.

[New antibiotics - standstill or progress].

PubMed

Rademacher, J; Welte, T

2017-04-01

The development of resistance to antibiotics has been ignored for a long time. But nowadays, increasing resistance is an important topic. For a decade no new antibiotics had been developed and it is not possible to quickly close this gap of new resistance and no new drugs. This work presents six new antibiotics (ceftaroline, ceftobiprole, solithromycin, tedizolid, ceftolozane/tazobactam, ceftazidime/avibactam). In part, only expert opinions are given due to lack of study results.The two 5th generation cephalosporins ceftaroline and ceftobiprole have beside their equivalent efficacy to ceftriaxone (ceftaroline) and cefipim (ceftobiprole) high activity against MRSA. The fluoroketolide solithromycin should help against macrolide-resistant pathogens and has been shown to be noninferior to the fluorochinolones. The oxazolidinone tedizolid is effective against linezolid-resistant MRSA. The two cephalosporins ceftolozane/tazobactam and ceftazidime/avibactam are not only effective against gram-negative pathogens, but they have a very broad spectrum. Due to the efficacy against extended-spectrum β‑lactamases, they can relieve the selection pressure of the carbapenems. We benefit from all new antibiotics which can take the selection pressure from other often used antibiotics. The increasing number of resistant gram-negative pathogens worldwide is alarming. Thus, focusing on the development of new drugs is extremely important.

Physical chemistry of Nanogap-Enhanced Raman Scattering (NERS)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suh, Yung Doug; Kim, Hyun Woo

2017-08-01

Plasmonically coupled electromagnetic field localization has generated a variety of new concepts and applications, and this has been one of the hottest topics in nanoscience, materials science, chemistry, physics and engineering and increasingly more important over the last decade. In particular, plasmonically coupled nanostructures with ultra-small gap ( 1-nm or smaller) gap have been of special interest due to their ultra-strong optical properties that can be useful for a variety of signal enhancements such surface-enhanced Raman scattering (SERS) and nanoantenna. These promising nanostructures with extraordinarily strong optical signal, however, have rendered a limited success in widespread use and commercialization largely due to the lack of designing principles, high-yield synthetic strategies with nm-level structural controllability and reproducibility and lack of systematic single-molecule and single-particle level studies. All these are extremely important challenges because even small changes ( 1 nm) of the coupled nanogap structures can significant affect plasmon mode and signal intensity and therefore structural and signal reproducibility and controllability can be in question. The plasmonic nanogap-enhanced Raman scattering (NERS) is defined as the plasmonic nanogap-based Raman signal enhancement within plasmonic nanogap particles with 1 nm gap and a Raman dye positioned inside the gap.

Placement and efficiency effects on radiative forcing of solar installations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Burg, Brian R.; Ruch, Patrick; Paredes, Stephan

2015-09-28

The promise for harnessing solar energy being hampered by cost, triggered efforts to reduce them. As a consequence low-efficiency, low-cost photovoltaics (PV) panels prevail. Conversely, in the traditional energy sector efficiency is extremely important due to the direct costs associated to fuels. This also affects solar energy due to the radiative forcing caused by the dark solar panels. In this paper we extend the concept of energy payback time by including the effect of albedo change, which gives a better assessment of the system sustainability. We present an analysis on the short and medium term climate forcing effects of differentmore » solar collectors in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia and demonstrate that efficiency is important to reduce the collector area and cost. This also influences the embodied energy and the global warming potential. We show that a placement of a high concentration photovoltaic thermal solar power station outside of the city using a district cooling system has a double beneficial effect since it improves the solar conversion efficiency and reduces the energy demand for cooling in the city. We also explain the mechanisms of the current economic development of solar technologies and anticipate changes.« less

GIS for the Assessment of the Groundwater Recharge Potential Zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, C.; Yeh, H.; Chen, J.; Hsu, K.

2008-12-01

Water resources in Taiwan are unevenly distributed in spatial and temporal domains. Effectively utilizing the water resources is an imperative task due to climate change. At present, groundwater contributes 34% of the total annual water supply and is an important fresh water resource. However, over-exploitation has decreased groundwater availability and has led to land subsidence. Assessing the potential zone of groundwater recharge is extremely important for the protection of water quality and the management of groundwater systems. The Chih-Pen Creek basin in eastern Taiwan is examined in this study to assess its groundwater resources potential. Remote sensing and the Geographical Information System (GIS) are used to integrate five contributing factors: lithology, land cover/land use, lineaments, drainage, and slope. The weights of factors contributing to the groundwater recharge are derived using aerial photos, geology maps, a land use database, and field verification. The resultant map of the groundwater potential zone demonstrates that the highest recharge potential area is located towards the downstream regions in the basin because of the high infiltration rates caused by gravelly sand and agricultural land use in these regions. In contrast, the least effective recharge potential area is in upstream regions due to the low infiltration of limestone.

Freight economic vulnerabilities due to flooding events.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2016-12-01

Extreme weather events, and flooding in particular, have been occurring more often and with increased severity over the past decade, and there is reason to expect this trend will continue in the future due to a changing climate. Flooding events can u...

(When and where) Do extreme climate events trigger extreme ecosystem responses? - Development and initial results of a holistic analysis framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hauber, Eva K.; Donner, Reik V.

2015-04-01

In the context of ongoing climate change, extremes are likely to increase in magnitude and frequency. One of the most important consequences of these changes is that the associated ecological risks and impacts are potentially rising as well. In order to better anticipate and understand these impacts, it therefore becomes more and more crucial to understand the general connection between climate extremes and the response and functionality of ecosystems. Among other region of the world, Europe presents an excellent test case for studies concerning the interaction between climate and biosphere, since it lies in the transition region between cold polar and warm tropical air masses and thus covers a great variety of different climatic zones and associated terrestrial ecosystems. The large temperature differences across the continent make this region particularly interesting for investigating the effects of climate change on biosphere-climate interactions. However, previously used methods for defining an extreme event typically disregard the necessity of taking seasonality as well as seasonal variance appropriately into account. Furthermore, most studies have focused on the impacts of individual extreme events instead of considering a whole inventory of extremes with their respective spatio-temporal extents. In order to overcome the aforementioned research gaps, this work introduces a new approach to studying climate-biosphere interactions associated with extreme events, which comprises three consecutive steps: (1) Since Europe exhibits climatic conditions characterized by marked seasonality, a novel method is developed to define extreme events taking into account the seasonality in all quantiles of the probability distribution of the respective variable of interest. This is achieved by considering kernel density estimates individually for each observation date during the year, including the properly weighted information from adjacent dates. By this procedure, we obtain a seasonal cycle for each quantile of the distribution, which can be used for a fully data-adaptive definition of extremes as exceedances above this time-dependent quantile function. (2) Having thus identified the extreme events, their distribution is analyzed in both space and time. Following a procedure recently proposed by Lloyd-Hughes (2012) and further exploited by Zscheischler et al. (2013), extremes observed at neighboring points in space and time are considered to form connected sets. Investigating the size distribution of these sets provides novel insights into the development and dynamical characteristics of spatio-temporally extended climate and ecosystem extremes. (3) Finally, the timing of such spatio-temporally extended extremes in different climatic as well as ecological variables is tested pairwise to rule out that co-occurrences of extremes have emerged solely due to chance. For this purpose, the recently developed framework of coincidence analysis (Donges et al., 2011; Rammig et al. 2014) is applied. The corresponding analysis allows identifying potential causal linkages between climatic extremes and extreme ecosystem responses and, thus, to study their mechanisms and spatial as well as seasonal distribution in great detail. In this work, the described method is exemplified by using different climate data from the ERA-Interim reanalysis as well as remote sensing-based land surface temperature data. References: Donges et al., PNAS, 108, 20422, 2011 Lloyd-Hughes, Int. J. Climatol., 32, 406, 2012 Rammig et al., Biogeosc. Disc., 11, 2537, 2014 Zscheischler et al., Ecol. Inform., 15, 66, 2013

Scenario based tsunami wave height estimation towards hazard evaluation for the Hellenic coastline and examples of extreme inundation zones in South Aegean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Melis, Nikolaos S.; Barberopoulou, Aggeliki; Frentzos, Elias; Krassanakis, Vassilios

2016-04-01

A scenario based methodology for tsunami hazard assessment is used, by incorporating earthquake sources with the potential to produce extreme tsunamis (measured through their capacity to cause maximum wave height and inundation extent). In the present study we follow a two phase approach. In the first phase, existing earthquake hazard zoning in the greater Aegean region is used to derive representative maximum expected earthquake magnitude events, with realistic seismotectonic source characteristics, and of greatest tsunamigenic potential within each zone. By stacking the scenario produced maximum wave heights a global maximum map is constructed for the entire Hellenic coastline, corresponding to all expected extreme offshore earthquake sources. Further evaluation of the produced coastline categories based on the maximum expected wave heights emphasizes the tsunami hazard in selected coastal zones with important functions (i.e. touristic crowded zones, industrial zones, airports, power plants etc). Owing to its proximity to the Hellenic Arc, many urban centres and being a popular tourist destination, Crete Island and the South Aegean region are given a top priority to define extreme inundation zoning. In the second phase, a set of four large coastal cities (Kalamata, Chania, Heraklion and Rethymno), important for tsunami hazard, due i.e. to the crowded beaches during the summer season or industrial facilities, are explored towards preparedness and resilience for tsunami hazard in Greece. To simulate tsunamis in the Aegean region (generation, propagation and runup) the MOST - ComMIT NOAA code was used. High resolution DEMs for bathymetry and topography were joined via an interface, specifically developed for the inundation maps in this study and with similar products in mind. For the examples explored in the present study, we used 5m resolution for the topography and 30m resolution for the bathymetry, respectively. Although this study can be considered as preliminary, it can also form the basis to further develop a scenario based inundation model database that can be used as an operational tool, for fast assessing tsunami prone zones during a real tsunami crisis.

Extreme hydrological changes in the southwestern US drive reductions in water supply to Southern California by mid century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pagán, Brianna R.; Ashfaq, Moetasim; Rastogi, Deeksha; Kendall, Donald R.; Kao, Shih-Chieh; Naz, Bibi S.; Mei, Rui; Pal, Jeremy S.

2016-09-01

The Southwestern United States has a greater vulnerability to climate change impacts on water security due to a reliance on snowmelt driven imported water. The State of California, which is the most populous and agriculturally productive in the United States, depends on an extensive artificial water storage and conveyance system primarily for irrigated agriculture, municipal and industrial supply and hydropower generation. Here we take an integrative high-resolution ensemble modeling approach to examine near term climate change impacts on all imported and local sources of water supply to Southern California. While annual precipitation is projected to remain the same or slightly increase, rising temperatures result in a shift towards more rainfall, reduced cold season snowpack and earlier snowmelt. Associated with these hydrological changes are substantial increases in the frequency and the intensity of both drier conditions and flooding events. The 50 year extreme daily maximum precipitation and runoff events are 1.5-6 times more likely to occur depending on the water supply basin. Simultaneously, a clear deficit in total annual runoff over mountainous snow generating regions like the Sierra Nevada is projected. On one hand, the greater probability of drought decreases imported water supply availability. On the other hand, earlier snowmelt and significantly stronger winter precipitation events pose increased flood risk requiring water releases from control reservoirs, which may potentially decrease water availability outside of the wet season. Lack of timely local water resource expansion coupled with projected climate changes and population increases may leave the area in extended periods of shortages.

Interactions between social structure, demography, and transmission determine disease persistence in primates.

PubMed

Ryan, Sadie J; Jones, James H; Dobson, Andrew P

2013-01-01

Catastrophic declines in African great ape populations due to disease outbreaks have been reported in recent years, yet we rarely hear of similar disease impacts for the more solitary Asian great apes, or for smaller primates. We used an age-structured model of different primate social systems to illustrate that interactions between social structure and demography create 'dynamic constraints' on the pathogens that can establish and persist in primate host species with different social systems. We showed that this varies by disease transmission mode. Sexually transmitted infections (STIs) require high rates of transmissibility to persist within a primate population. In particular, for a unimale social system, STIs require extremely high rates of transmissibility for persistence, and remain at extremely low prevalence in small primates, but this is less constrained in longer-lived, larger-bodied primates. In contrast, aerosol transmitted infections (ATIs) spread and persist at high prevalence in medium and large primates with moderate transmissibility;, establishment and persistence in small-bodied primates require higher relative rates of transmissibility. Intragroup contact structure - the social network - creates different constraints for different transmission modes, and our model underscores the importance of intragroup contacts on infection prior to intergroup movement in a structured population. When alpha males dominate sexual encounters, the resulting disease transmission dynamics differ from when social interactions are dominated by mother-infant grooming events, for example. This has important repercussions for pathogen spread across populations. Our framework reveals essential social and demographic characteristics of primates that predispose them to different disease risks that will be important for disease management and conservation planning for protected primate populations.

Bilateral medial medullary infarction due to bilateral vertebral artery dissection.

PubMed

Fukuda, Masafumi; Aiba, Toyotaka; Takahashi, Sho

2004-03-01

We describe a 52-year-old woman who experienced transient motor weakness and numbness of the left extremities and presented 2 days later with severe hemiparesis and sensory impairment of the right extremities and right lingual palsy. Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) revealed bilateral upper medial medullary infarction, primarily in the left ventral portion. The findings of both three-dimensional (3D) computed tomographic and conventional angiography suggested dissection of both intracranial vertebral arteries (VAs). Medial medullary infarction is generally caused by atherosclerosis within a VA or anterior spinal artery. This is the first report of bilateral medial medullary infarction due to dissection of both intracranial VAs.

Mean-field potential approach for thermodynamic properties of lanthanide: Europium as a prototype

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, Priyank; Bhatt, N. K.; Vyas, P. R.; Gohel, V. B.

2018-03-01

In the present paper, a simple conjunction scheme [mean-field potential (MFP) + local pseudopotential] is used to study the thermodynamic properties of divalent lanthanide europium (Eu) at extreme environment. Present study has been carried out due to the fact that divalent nature of Eu arises because of stable half-filled 4f-shell at ambient condition, which has great influence on the thermodynamic properties at extreme environment. Due to such electronic structure, it is different from remaining lanthanides having incomplete 4f-shell. The presently computed results of thermodynamic properties of Eu are in good agreement with the experimental results. Looking to such success, it seems that the concept of MFP approach is successful to account contribution due to nuclear motion to the total Helmholtz free energy at finite temperatures and pressure-induced inter-band transfer of electrons for condensed state of matter. The local pseudopotential is used to evaluate cold energy and hence MFP accounts the s-p-d-f hybridization properly. Looking to the reliability and transferability along with its computational and conceptual simplicity, we would like to extend the present scheme for the study of thermodynamic properties of remaining lanthanides and actinides at extreme environment.

More tornadoes in the most extreme U.S. tornado outbreaks.

PubMed

Tippett, Michael K; Lepore, Chiara; Cohen, Joel E

2016-12-16

Tornadoes and severe thunderstorms kill people and damage property every year. Estimated U.S. insured losses due to severe thunderstorms in the first half of 2016 were $8.5 billion (US). The largest U.S. effects of tornadoes result from tornado outbreaks, which are sequences of tornadoes that occur in close succession. Here, using extreme value analysis, we find that the frequency of U.S. outbreaks with many tornadoes is increasing and that it is increasing faster for more extreme outbreaks. We model this behavior by extreme value distributions with parameters that are linear functions of time or of some indicators of multidecadal climatic variability. Extreme meteorological environments associated with severe thunderstorms show consistent upward trends, but the trends do not resemble those currently expected to result from global warming. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Extreme Variability in a Broad Absorption Line Quasar

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Stern, Daniel; Jun, Hyunsung D.; Graham, Matthew J.

CRTS J084133.15+200525.8 is an optically bright quasar at z = 2.345 that has shown extreme spectral variability over the past decade. Photometrically, the source had a visual magnitude of V ∼ 17.3 between 2002 and 2008. Then, over the following five years, the source slowly brightened by approximately one magnitude, to V ∼ 16.2. Only ∼1 in 10,000 quasars show such extreme variability, as quantified by the extreme parameters derived for this quasar assuming a damped random walk model. A combination of archival and newly acquired spectra reveal the source to be an iron low-ionization broad absorption line quasar withmore » extreme changes in its absorption spectrum. Some absorption features completely disappear over the 9 years of optical spectra, while other features remain essentially unchanged. We report the first definitive redshift for this source, based on the detection of broad H α in a Keck/MOSFIRE spectrum. Absorption systems separated by several 1000 km s{sup −1} in velocity show coordinated weakening in the depths of their troughs as the continuum flux increases. We interpret the broad absorption line variability to be due to changes in photoionization, rather than due to motion of material along our line of sight. This source highlights one sort of rare transition object that astronomy will now be finding through dedicated time-domain surveys.« less

Intercontinental difference in extreme weather events for the Northern Hemisphere over the past half century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, A.; Tan, J.; Piao, S.

2014-12-01

Weather events that are located in the tails of a weather distribution are called weather extremes. Weather extremes, including severe drought, flooding, heat and cold waves, usually can cause greatest damage to human lives and properties, and have profound implication on ecosystem productivity and carbon cycles. There is mounting evidence suggests that the frequency of temperature and hydrological weather extremes have steadily increased over the last decades, largely due to the ongoing climate change. On the other hand, the distribution and trend of weather extremes can be regionally heterogeneous, which have not been well understood. Here we investigate the spatial distribution and temporal trend of weather extremes in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) over the past half century (1961-2010), with emphasis on the intercontinental comparisons. Our results suggest that warming extremes have increased significantly in East Asia and West Europe; while coldness extremes have decreased globally. Heavy precipitation extremes significantly increased in eastern Northern America, boreal Eurasia, and some parts of China; while drought events showed an increasing trend in northern China-southern Mongolia and some parts of western United States. Our results highlight the regional difference in the trend of weather extremes, which need to be incorporated in the mitigation measures.

Frequency and Character of Extreme Aerosol Events in the Southwestern United States: A Case Study Analysis in Arizona

PubMed Central

Lopez, David H.; Rabbani, Michael R.; Crosbie, Ewan; Raman, Aishwarya; Arellano, Avelino F.; Sorooshian, Armin

2016-01-01

This study uses more than a decade’s worth of data across Arizona to characterize the spatiotemporal distribution, frequency, and source of extreme aerosol events, defined as when the concentration of a species on a particular day exceeds that of the average plus two standard deviations for that given month. Depending on which of eight sites studied, between 5% and 7% of the total days exhibited an extreme aerosol event due to either extreme levels of PM10, PM2.5, and/or fine soil. Grand Canyon exhibited the most extreme event days (120, i.e., 7% of its total days). Fine soil is the pollutant type that most frequently impacted multiple sites at once at an extreme level. PM10, PM2.5, fine soil, non-Asian dust, and Elemental Carbon extreme events occurred most frequently in August. Nearly all Asian dust extreme events occurred between March and June. Extreme Elemental Carbon events have decreased as a function of time with statistical significance, while other pollutant categories did not show any significant change. Extreme events were most frequent for the various pollutant categories on either Wednesday or Thursday, but there was no statistically significant difference in the number of events on any particular day or on weekends versus weekdays. PMID:27088005

Evaluation of the Etiologies of Implant Fracture in Patients With Fractures of the Implants of Lower Limbs’ Long Bones

PubMed Central

Yeganeh, Ali; Otoukesh, Babak; Kaghazian, Peyman; Yeganeh, Nima; Boddohi, Bahram; Moghtadaei, Mehdi

2015-01-01

Background: Orthopedics implants are important tools for treatment of bone fractures. Despite available recommendations for designing and making the implants, there are multiple cases of fracture of these implants in the body. Hence, in this study the frequency of failure of implants in long bones of lower extremities was evaluated. Methods and Materials: In this cross-sectional study, two types of fractured implants in the body were analyzed and underwent metalogical, mechanical, and modeling and stress-bending analysis. Results: The results revealed that the main cause of fractures was decreased mechanical resistance due to inappropriate chemical composition (especially decreased percentages of Nickel and Molybdenum). Conclusions: It may be concluded that following the standard chemical composition and use of optimal making method are the most important works for prevention of failure of implants. PMID:26843735

[Danger from exploding fireworks and blank firearms].

PubMed

Just, T; Pau, H W; Kaduk, W; Hingst, V

2000-12-01

Explosive amusement and deterrent articles such as New Year's Eve cannons and rockets, toy pistols, and blank guns are not at all harmless items. Their potential dangerousness is often extremely underestimated. Two damaging mechanisms are important: during explosions, high pressures and temperatures develop and a considerable sound pressure level can be measured. If the explosion happens near the human body (intentionally or inadvertently), not only superficial lesions can occur, but also (mainly due to contact shots) serious, deep-seated tissue damage, especially in the head and neck region with its endangered sense organs such as eye and ear, the vessels and nerves supplying the brain, the speech- and voice-forming apparatus, and in particular the face, can be the consequence. Their mutilation can lead to serious and extensive interpersonalchanges. Accidents are published in the relevant otological and forensic medical papers, but nevertheless it seems important to us to point out the dangerousness of these readily available items.

Nanomaterial-based electrochemical sensors for arsenic - A review.

PubMed

Kempahanumakkagari, Sureshkumar; Deep, Akash; Kim, Ki-Hyun; Kumar Kailasa, Suresh; Yoon, Hye-On

2017-09-15

The existence of arsenic in the environment poses severe global health threats. Considering its toxicity, the sensing of arsenic is extremely important. Due to the complexity of environmental and biological samples, many of the available detection methods for arsenic have serious limitations on selectivity and sensitivity. To improve sensitivity and selectivity and to circumvent interferences, different electrode systems have been developed based on surface modification with nanomaterials including carbonaceous nanomaterials, metallic nanoparticles (MNPs), metal nanotubes (MNTs), and even enzymes. Despite the progress made in electrochemical sensing of arsenic, some issues still need to be addressed to realize cost effective, portable, and flow-injection type sensor systems. The present review provides an in-depth evaluation of the nanoparticle-modified electrode (NME) based methods for the electrochemical sensing of arsenic. NME based sensing systems are projected to become an important option for monitoring hazardous pollutants in both environmental and biological media. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Processing factors affecting the clarity of a rapid-curing clear acrylic resin.

PubMed

Keng, S B; Cruickshanks-Boyd, D W; Davies, E H

1979-10-01

The difficulty in repeatedly producing unblemished, clear acrylic resin in the dental laboratory has hindered its wider use, despite its many advantages over coloured material. Recently, rapid-cure dental acrylics have been introduced, which are available in both clear and coloured forms. This investigation examined various factors which may influence the production of unblemished, rapid-curing, clear acrylic resin. Utilizing a quantitative assessment of clarity, the most important factor influencing the clarity of the resin is shown to be the choice of separating medium. Tin-foil produces extremely high clarity, but alginate mould separator causes surface blanching. However, this surface blanching can be removed by polishing. Porosity, caused by too rapid curing, and stone model dryness are of only secondary importance. Possible water contamination of the monomer liquid due to accidental exposure only affects clarity at very high levels of contamination.

Time- & Load-Dependence of Triboelectric Effect.

PubMed

Pan, Shuaihang; Yin, Nian; Zhang, Zhinan

2018-02-06

Time- and load-dependent friction behavior is considered as important for a long time, due to its time-evolution and force-driving characteristics. However, its electronic behavior, mainly considered in triboelectric effect, has almost never been given the full attention and analyses from the above point of view. In this paper, by experimenting with fcc-latticed aluminum and copper friction pairs, the mechanical and electronic behaviors of friction contacts are correlated by time and load analyses, and the behind physical understanding is provided. Most importantly, the difference of "response lag" in force and electricity is discussed, the extreme points of coefficient of friction with the increasing normal loads are observed and explained with the surface properties and dynamical behaviors (i.e. wear), and the micro and macro theories linking tribo-electricity to normal load and wear (i.e. the physical explanation between coupled electrical and mechanical phenomena) are successfully developed and tested.

Second and third NIR optical windows for imaging of bone microfractures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sordillo, Laura A.; Pu, Yang; Sordillo, Peter P.; Budansky, Yury; Alfano, R. R.

2014-05-01

Microfractures in bone, secondary to repetitive stress, particularly in the lower extremities, are an important problem for military recruits and for athletes. They also may occur in those with brittle bones, such as the elderly, or in patients taking bisphosphonates for osteoporosis. Microfractures can be early predictors of major bone fracture and may be as important as changes in bone density in predicting where and how likely a major fracture will occur. Unlike major bone fractures, microfractures can be difficult to detect by conventional methods. We explored a second NIR spectral window from 1,100 nm to 1,350 nm, and a third spectral window from 1,600 nm to 1,870 nm to image microfractures through tissue media. Due to a reduction in scattering at longer NIR wavelengths, employment of the second and third NIR windows may allow for deeper penetration into tissue and higher contrast images of microfractures underneath the skin.

Intellectual Property: a powerful tool to develop biotech research.

PubMed

Giugni, Diego; Giugni, Valter

2010-09-01

Today biotechnology is perhaps the most important technology field because of the strong health and food implications. However, due to the nature of said technology, there is the need of a huge amount of investments to sustain the experimentation costs. Consequently, investors aim to safeguard as much as possible their investments. Intellectual Property, and in particular patents, has been demonstrated to actually constitute a powerful tool to help them. Moreover, patents represent an extremely important means to disclose biotechnology inventions. Patentable biotechnology inventions involve products as nucleotide and amino acid sequences, microorganisms, processes or methods for modifying said products, uses for the manufacture of medicaments, etc. There are several ways to protect inventions, but all follow the three main patentability requirements: novelty, inventive step and industrial application. © 2010 The Authors; Journal compilation © 2010 Society for Applied Microbiology and Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Approximate equiangular tight frames for compressed sensing and CDMA applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsiligianni, Evaggelia; Kondi, Lisimachos P.; Katsaggelos, Aggelos K.

2017-12-01

Performance guarantees for recovery algorithms employed in sparse representations, and compressed sensing highlights the importance of incoherence. Optimal bounds of incoherence are attained by equiangular unit norm tight frames (ETFs). Although ETFs are important in many applications, they do not exist for all dimensions, while their construction has been proven extremely difficult. In this paper, we construct frames that are close to ETFs. According to results from frame and graph theory, the existence of an ETF depends on the existence of its signature matrix, that is, a symmetric matrix with certain structure and spectrum consisting of two distinct eigenvalues. We view the construction of a signature matrix as an inverse eigenvalue problem and propose a method that produces frames of any dimensions that are close to ETFs. Due to the achieved equiangularity property, the so obtained frames can be employed as spreading sequences in synchronous code-division multiple access (s-CDMA) systems, besides compressed sensing.

A new superhard material: Osmium diboride OsB 2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hebbache, M.; Stuparević, L.; Živković, D.

2006-08-01

Superhard materials have many industrial applications, wherever resistance to abrasion and wear are important. The synthesis of new superhard materials is one of the great challenges to scientists. We re-examined the phase diagram of the binary osmium-boron system and confirmed the existence of two hexagonal phases, OsB 1.1, Os 2B 3, and an orthorhombic phase, OsB 2. Almost nothing is known about the physical properties of osmium borides. Microhardness measurements show that OsB 2 is extremely hard. Ab initio calculations show that this is due to formation of covalent bonds between boron atoms. OsB 2 is also a low compressibility material. It can be used as hard coating.

Chiral reagents in glycosylation and modification of carbohydrates.

PubMed

Wang, Hao-Yuan; Blaszczyk, Stephanie A; Xiao, Guozhi; Tang, Weiping

2018-02-05

Carbohydrates play a significant role in numerous biological events, and the chemical synthesis of carbohydrates is vital for further studies to understand their various biological functions. Due to the structural complexity of carbohydrates, the stereoselective formation of glycosidic linkages and the site-selective modification of hydroxyl groups are very challenging and at the same time extremely important. In recent years, the rapid development of chiral reagents including both chiral auxiliaries and chiral catalysts has significantly improved the stereoselectivity for glycosylation reactions and the site-selectivity for the modification of carbohydrates. These new tools will greatly facilitate the efficient synthesis of oligosaccharides, polysaccharides, and glycoconjugates. In this tutorial review, we will summarize these advances and highlight the most recent examples.

Echocardiographic Changes in Eosinophilic Endocarditis Induced by Churg-Strauss Syndrome.

PubMed

Masaki, Nobuyuki; Issiki, Ami; Kirimura, Masato; Kamiyama, Tetsuo; Sasaki, Osamu; Ito, Hiroyuki; Maruyama, Yoshiaki; Nishioka, Toshihiko

Eosinophilic myocarditis may be accompanied by Churg-Strauss syndrome (CSS). We report a case of CSS that was accompanied by myocardial changes in the early stage. A 71-year-old woman complained of mild chest pain at rest, but routine echocardiography did not reveal any endocardial abnormalities. Four months later, the patient was hospitalized due to congestive heart failure with neuropathy of both upper extremities. A diagnosis of eosinophilic myocarditis was made based on the patient's laboratory results and the presence of mural thrombus. This case illustrates that, although early eosinophilic myocarditis is an important differential diagnosis in patients with chest pain, it may be difficult to identify in without an apparent mural thrombus.

Echocardiographic Changes in Eosinophilic Endocarditis Induced by Churg-Strauss Syndrome

PubMed Central

Masaki, Nobuyuki; Issiki, Ami; Kirimura, Masato; Kamiyama, Tetsuo; Sasaki, Osamu; Ito, Hiroyuki; Maruyama, Yoshiaki; Nishioka, Toshihiko

2016-01-01

Eosinophilic myocarditis may be accompanied by Churg-Strauss syndrome (CSS). We report a case of CSS that was accompanied by myocardial changes in the early stage. A 71-year-old woman complained of mild chest pain at rest, but routine echocardiography did not reveal any endocardial abnormalities. Four months later, the patient was hospitalized due to congestive heart failure with neuropathy of both upper extremities. A diagnosis of eosinophilic myocarditis was made based on the patient's laboratory results and the presence of mural thrombus. This case illustrates that, although early eosinophilic myocarditis is an important differential diagnosis in patients with chest pain, it may be difficult to identify in without an apparent mural thrombus. PMID:27725542

Mechanisms of structural colour in the Morpho butterfly: cooperation of regularity and irregularity in an iridescent scale.

PubMed Central

Kinoshita, Shuichi; Yoshioka, Shinya; Kawagoe, Kenji

2002-01-01

Structural colour in the Morpho butterfly originates from submicron structure within a scale and, for over a century, its colour and reflectivity have been explained as interference of light due to the multilayer of cuticle and air. However, this model fails to explain the extraordinarily uniform colour of the wing with respect to the observation direction. We have performed microscopic, optical and theoretical investigations, and have found that the separate lamellar structure with irregular heights is extremely important. Using a simple model, we have shown that the combined action of interference and diffraction is essential for the structural colour of the Morpho butterfly. PMID:12137569

Review of literature surface tension data for molten silicon

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hardy, S.

1981-01-01

Measurements of the surface tension of molten silicon are reported. For marangoni flow, the important parameter is the variation of surface tension with temperature, not the absolute value of the surface tension. It is not possible to calculate temperature coefficients using surface tension measurements from different experiments because the systematic errors are usually larger than the changes in surface tension because of temperature variations. The lack of good surface tension data for liquid silicon is probably due to its extreme chemical reactivity. A material which resists attack by molten silicon is not found. It is suggested that all of the sessile drip surface tension measurements are probably for silicon which is contaminated by the substrate materials.

Invited Article: Indenter materials for high temperature nanoindentation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wheeler, J. M.; Michler, J.

2013-10-01

As nanoindentation at high temperatures becomes increasingly popular, a review of indenter materials for usage at high temperatures is instructive for identifying appropriate indenter-sample materials combinations to prevent indenter loss or failure due to chemical reactions or wear during indentation. This is an important consideration for nanoindentation as extremely small volumes of reacted indenter material will have a significant effect on measurements. The high temperature hardness, elastic modulus, thermal properties, and chemical reactivities of diamond, boron carbide, silicon carbide, tungsten carbide, cubic boron nitride, and sapphire are discussed. Diamond and boron carbide show the best elevated temperature hardness, while tungsten carbide demonstrates the lowest chemical reactivity with the widest array of elements.

Urine Cytology: Collection, Film Preparation, and Evaluation.

PubMed

Vap, Linda M; Shropshire, Sarah B

2017-01-01

Cytologic examination of the urine sediment in animals suspected of having urinary tract disease or lower urinary tract masses is one of the best means of distinguishing inflammation, infection, and neoplasia and can help determine if a positive dipstick result for hemoglobin/blood is due to hemorrhage or blood contamination. The quality of the specimen collection and handling plays an important role in the quality of results, the validity of interpretations, and selection of appropriate course of action. The method of sample collection aids localization of pathology. Air dry but do not heat fix, freeze, or expose films to formalin fumes, temperature extremes, or condensation. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Are extreme hydro-meteorological events a prerequisite for extreme water quality impacts? Exploring climate impacts on inland and coastal waters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Michalak, A. M.; Balaji, V.; Del Giudice, D.; Sinha, E.; Zhou, Y.; Ho, J. C.

2017-12-01

Questions surrounding water sustainability, climate change, and extreme events are often framed around water quantity - whether too much or too little. The massive impacts of extreme water quality impairments are equally compelling, however. Recent years have provided a host of compelling examples, with unprecedented harmful algal blooms developing along the West coast, in Utah Lake, in Lake Erie, and off the Florida coast, and huge hypoxic dead zones continuing to form in regions such as Lake Erie, the Chesapeake Bay, and the Gulf of Mexico. Linkages between climate change, extreme events, and water quality impacts are not well understood, however. Several factors explain this lack of understanding, including the relative complexity of underlying processes, the spatial and temporal scale mismatch between hydrologists and climatologists, and observational uncertainty leading to ambiguities in the historical record. Here, we draw on a number of recent studies that aim to quantitatively link meteorological variability and water quality impacts to test the hypothesis that extreme water quality impairments are the result of extreme hydro-meteorological events. We find that extreme hydro-meteorological events are neither always a necessary nor a sufficient condition for the occurrence of extreme water quality impacts. Rather, extreme water quality impairments often occur in situations where multiple contributing factors compound, which complicates both attribution of historical events and the ability to predict the future incidence of such events. Given the critical societal importance of water quality projections, a concerted program of uncertainty reduction encompassing observational and modeling components will be needed to examine situations where extreme weather plays an important, but not solitary, role in the chain of cause and effect.

Extreme events of perceived temperature over Europe: a projected northward extension of dangerous areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scoccimarro, Enrico; Fogli, Pier Giuseppe; Gualdi, Silvio

2017-04-01

It is well known that an increase of temperature over Europe, both in terms of averages and extremes, is expected within the current century. In order to consider health impacts under warm conditions, it is important to take into account the combined effect of temperature and humidity on the human body. To this aim a basic index - the humindex - representative of the perceived temperature, under different scenarios and periods, has been investigated in this study. A very low concomitance of extreme temperature events and extreme humindex events is found over the present climate, reinforcing the importance to investigate not only extreme temperature and relative humidity future projections but also the combination of the two parameters. A set of 10-km resolution regional climate simulations provided within the EUR-11 EURO-CORDEX multi-model effort, demonstrates ability in representing the intense and extreme events of the humindex over the present climate and to be eligible as a tool to quantify future changes in geographical patterns of exposed areas over Europe. An enlargement of the domain subject to dangerous conditions is found since the middle of the current century, reaching 60 degrees North when considering really extreme events. The most significant increase in humindex extreme events is found when comparing the 2066-2095 projections under rcp8.5 scenario, to the 1966-2005 period: bearing in mind that changes in relative humidity may either amplify or offset the health effects of temperature extremes, a less pronounced projected reduction of relative humidity intensity in the Northern part of the European domain, associated to extreme temperature and humindex, makes Northern Europe the most prone region to a local increase of the humindex extremes.

Future changes in Asian summer monsoon precipitation extremes as inferred from 20-km AGCM simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lui, Yuk Sing; Tam, Chi-Yung; Lau, Ngar-Cheung

2018-04-01

This study examines the impacts of climate change on precipitation extremes in the Asian monsoon region during boreal summer, based on simulations from the 20-km Meteorological Research Institute atmospheric general circulation model. The model can capture the summertime monsoon rainfall, with characteristics similar to those from Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission and Asian Precipitation-Highly-Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation. By comparing the 2075-2099 with the present-day climate simulations, there is a robust increase of the mean rainfall in many locations due to a warmer climate. Over southeastern China, the Baiu rainband, Bay of Bengal and central India, extreme precipitation rates are also enhanced in the future, which can be inferred from increases of the 95th percentile of daily precipitation, the maximum accumulated precipitation in 5 consecutive days, the simple daily precipitation intensity index, and the scale parameter of the fitted gamma distribution. In these regions, with the exception of the Baiu rainband, most of these metrics give a fractional change of extreme rainfall per degree increase of the lower-tropospheric temperature of 5 to 8.5% K-1, roughly consistent with the Clausius-Clapeyron relation. However, over the Baiu area extreme precipitation change scales as 3.5% K-1 only. We have also stratified the rainfall data into those associated with tropical cyclones (TC) and those with other weather systems. The AGCM gives an increase of the accumulated TC rainfall over southeastern China, and a decrease in southern Japan in the future climate. The latter can be attributed to suppressed TC occurrence in southern Japan, whereas increased accumulated rainfall over southeastern China is due to more intense TC rain rate under global warming. Overall, non-TC weather systems are the main contributor to enhanced precipitation extremes in various locations. In the future, TC activities over southeastern China tend to further exacerbate the precipitation extremes, whereas those in the Baiu region lead to weaker changes of these extremes.

Extreme Storm Surges in the North Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goennert, G.; Buß, Th.; Mueller, O.; Thumm, S.

2009-04-01

Extreme Storm Surges in the North Sea Gabriele Gönnert, Olaf Müller, Thomas Buß and Sigrid Thumm Climate Change will cause a rise of the sea level and probably more frequent and more violent storm surges. This has serious consequences for the safety of people as well as for their values and assets behind the dikes. It is therefore inevitable to first assess how sea level rise and an extreme storm surge event designes. In a second step it is possible to determine the risk for specific locations and develop strategies. The Project XtremRisk - Extreme Storm Surges at the North Sea Coast and in Estuaries. Risk calculation and risk strategies, funded by the German Federal Government will help answering these questions. The „Source-Pathway-Receptor" Concept will be used as a basis for risk analysis and development of new strategies. The Project offers methods to assess the development of extreme events under the conditions of today. Under conditions reflecting the climate change it will be tried to design an extreme event. For these three main points will be considered: a) Analysis and calculation of each factor, which produce a storm surge and its maximum level occurring in the last 100 years. These are: - maximum surge level: surge (due to the wind), - influence of the tide and the interaction between surge and tide, - influence of external surges , b) The hydrodynamics of a storm surge cause nonlinear effects in the interaction of the named factors. These factors and effects will both be taken into account to calculate the magnitude of the extreme storm surge. This step is very complex and need additional examination by numerical models. c) Analysis of the different scenarios to mean sea level rise and to the increase of wind speed due to the climate change. The presentation will introduce methods and show first results of the analysis of extreme events and the mean sea level rise.

Forest operations, extreme flooding events, and considerations for hydrologic modeling in the Appalachians--A review

Treesearch

M.A. Eisenbies; W.M. Aust; J.A. Burger; M.B. Adams

2007-01-01

The connection between forests and water resources is well established, but the relationships among controlling factors are only partly understood. Concern over the effects of forestry operations, particularly harvesting, on extreme flooding events is a recurrent issue in forest and watershed management. Due to the complexity of the system, and the cost of installing...

Precipitation trends in the Canary Islands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

García-Herrera, Ricardo; Gallego, David; Hernández, Emiliano; Gimeno, Luis; Ribera, Pedro; Calvo, Natalia

2003-02-01

A strong decreasing trend in the Canary Islands' precipitation is detected by studying daily rainfall time series for the second half of the 20th century. An analysis of the extreme events shows that this trend is due mainly to a decrease in the upper percentiles of the precipitation distribution. The results suggest that local factors play a fundamental role on extreme event behaviour.

10. Southeast end; view to northwest, 65mm lens. Note evidence ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

10. Southeast end; view to northwest, 65mm lens. Note evidence of extreme building failure caused by adjacent railroad cut, which necessitated building demolition. (Vignetting due to extreme use of camera swing necessitated by lack of space to position camera otherwise.) - Benicia Arsenal, Powder Magazine No. 5, Junction of Interstate Highways 680 & 780, Benicia, Solano County, CA

Drug coated balloon in peripheral artery disease.

PubMed

Shanmugasundaram, Madhan; Murugapandian, Sangeetha; Truong, Huu Tam; Lotun, Kapildeo; Banerjee, Subhash

2018-04-21

Peripheral artery disease (PAD) is highly prevalent but is often underdiagnosed and undertreated. Lower extremity PAD can often be life style limiting. Revascularization in carefully selected lower extremity PAD patients improves symptoms and functional status. Surgical revascularization used to be the only available strategy, but in the recent years, endovascular strategies have gained popularity due to faster recovery times with low morbidity and mortality rates. Endovascular procedures have increased significantly in the United States in the past few years. That being said, higher restenosis rates and low long-term patency rates have been the limiting factors for this strategy. Drug eluting stents have been introduced to help with lowering restenosis, however lower extremity PAD involves long segment where the outcomes of stents are suboptimal. Also, the disease often crosses joint line that makes it less ideal for the stents. Drug coated balloons (DCB) have been introduced to improve patency rates following endovascular intervention for lower extremity PAD. They have gained popularity among endovascular specialists due to its ease of use and the concept of "leave nothing behind". This is a review of scientific evidence supporting DCB use in PAD. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Performance of High Temperature Operational Amplifier, Type LM2904WH, under Extreme Temperatures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Patterson, Richard; Hammoud, Ahmad; Elbuluk, Malik

2008-01-01

Operation of electronic parts and circuits under extreme temperatures is anticipated in NASA space exploration missions as well as terrestrial applications. Exposure of electronics to extreme temperatures and wide-range thermal swings greatly affects their performance via induced changes in the semiconductor material properties, packaging and interconnects, or due to incompatibility issues between interfaces that result from thermal expansion/contraction mismatch. Electronics that are designed to withstand operation and perform efficiently in extreme temperatures would mitigate risks for failure due to thermal stresses and, therefore, improve system reliability. In addition, they contribute to reducing system size and weight, simplifying its design, and reducing development cost through the elimination of otherwise required thermal control elements for proper ambient operation. A large DC voltage gain (100 dB) operational amplifier with a maximum junction temperature of 150 C was recently introduced by STMicroelectronics [1]. This LM2904WH chip comes in a plastic package and is designed specifically for automotive and industrial control systems. It operates from a single power supply over a wide range of voltages, and it consists of two independent, high gain, internally frequency compensated operational amplifiers. Table I shows some of the device manufacturer s specifications.

The natural flow regime of Hawaíi streams

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsang, Y. P.; Strauch, A. M.; Clilverd, H. M.

2016-12-01

Freshwater is a critical, but limited natural resource on tropical islands; sustaining agriculture, industry, hydropower, urban development, and domestic water supply. The hydrology of Hawaíi islands is largely influenced by the health of mountain forests, which capture and absorb rain and fog drip, recharging aquifers and sustaining stream flow. Forests in Hawaíi are being degraded through the replacement of native vegetation with introduced species or conversion to another land use. Streams in the tropics frequently experience flash flooding due to extreme rainfall-runoff events and low flows due to seasonal drought. These patterns drive habitat availability for freshwater fauna, as well as sediment and nutrient export to near-shore ecosystems. Flow regimes can be used to characterize the frequency and magnitude of extreme high and low flows and are influenced by watershed climate, geology, land cover and soil composition. We examined the effect of climate extremes on stream flow from Hawaiian forests using historical flow data to characterize the spatial and temporal patterns in surface water resources. By defining flow regimes from forests we can improve our understanding of climate extremes on water resource availability across tropical island landscapes.

Impact of urban WWTP and CSO fluxes on river peak flow extremes under current and future climate conditions.

PubMed

Keupers, Ingrid; Willems, Patrick

2013-01-01

The impact of urban water fluxes on the river system outflow of the Grote Nete catchment (Belgium) was studied. First the impact of the Waste Water Treatment Plant (WWTP) and the Combined Sewer Overflow (CSO) outflows on the river system for the current climatic conditions was determined by simulating the urban fluxes as point sources in a detailed, hydrodynamic river model. Comparison was made of the simulation results on peak flow extremes with and without the urban point sources. In a second step, the impact of climate change scenarios on the urban fluxes and the consequent impacts on the river flow extremes were studied. It is shown that the change in the 10-year return period hourly peak flow discharge due to climate change (-14% to +45%) was in the same order of magnitude as the change due to the urban fluxes (+5%) in current climate conditions. Different climate change scenarios do not change the impact of the urban fluxes much except for the climate scenario that involves a strong increase in rainfall extremes in summer. This scenario leads to a strong increase of the impact of the urban fluxes on the river system.

Upper Extremity Amputations and Prosthetics

PubMed Central

Ovadia, Steven A.; Askari, Morad

2015-01-01

Upper extremity amputations are most frequently indicated by severe traumatic injuries. The location of the injury will determine the level of amputation. Preservation of extremity length is often a goal. The amputation site will have important implications on the functional status of the patient and options for prosthetic reconstruction. Advances in amputation techniques and prosthetic reconstructions promote improved quality of life. In this article, the authors review the principles of upper extremity amputation, including techniques, amputation sites, and prosthetic reconstructions. PMID:25685104

Modernizing Distribution System Restoration to Achieve Grid Resiliency Against Extreme Weather Events: An Integrated Solution

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chen, Chen; Wang, Jianhui; Ton, Dan

Recent severe power outages caused by extreme weather hazards have highlighted the importance and urgency of improving the resilience of the electric power grid. As the distribution grids still remain vulnerable to natural disasters, the power industry has focused on methods of restoring distribution systems after disasters in an effective and quick manner. The current distribution system restoration practice for utilities is mainly based on predetermined priorities and tends to be inefficient and suboptimal, and the lack of situational awareness after the hazard significantly delays the restoration process. As a result, customers may experience an extended blackout, which causes largemore » economic loss. On the other hand, the emerging advanced devices and technologies enabled through grid modernization efforts have the potential to improve the distribution system restoration strategy. However, utilizing these resources to aid the utilities in better distribution system restoration decision-making in response to extreme weather events is a challenging task. Therefore, this paper proposes an integrated solution: a distribution system restoration decision support tool designed by leveraging resources developed for grid modernization. We first review the current distribution restoration practice and discuss why it is inadequate in response to extreme weather events. Then we describe how the grid modernization efforts could benefit distribution system restoration, and we propose an integrated solution in the form of a decision support tool to achieve the goal. The advantages of the solution include improving situational awareness of the system damage status and facilitating survivability for customers. The paper provides a comprehensive review of how the existing methodologies in the literature could be leveraged to achieve the key advantages. The benefits of the developed system restoration decision support tool include the optimal and efficient allocation of repair crews and resources, the expediting of the restoration process, and the reduction of outage durations for customers, in response to severe blackouts due to extreme weather hazards.« less

Effects of Temperature on the Performance and Stability of Recent COTS Silicon Oscillators

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Patterson, Richard L.; Hammoud, Ahmad

2010-01-01

Silicon oscillators have lately emerged to serve as potential replacement for crystal and ceramic resonators to provide timing and clock signals in electronic systems. These semiconductor-based devices, including those that are based on MEMS technology, are reported to be resistant to vibration and shock (an important criteria for systems to be deployed in space), immune to EMI, consume very low current, require few or no external components, and cover a wide range of frequency for analog and digital circuits. In this work, the performance of five recently-developed COTS silicon oscillator chips from different manufacturers was determined within a temperature range that extended beyond the individual specified range of operation. In addition, restart capability at extreme temperatures, i.e. power switched on while the device was soaking at extreme (hot or cold) temperature, and the effects of thermal cycling under a wide temperature range on the operation of these silicon oscillators were also investigated. Performance characterization of each oscillator was obtained in terms of its output frequency, duty cycle, rise and fall times, and supply current at specific test temperatures. The five different oscillators tested operated beyond their specified temperature region, with some displaying excellent stability throughout the whole test temperature range. Others experienced some instability at certain temperature test points as evidenced by fluctuation in the output frequency. Recovery from temperature-induced changes took place when excessive temperatures were removed. It should also be pointed out that all oscillators were able to restart at the extreme test temperatures and to withstand the limited thermal cycling without undergoing any significant changes in their characteristics. In addition, no physical damage was observed in the packaging material of any of these silicon oscillators due to extreme temperature exposure and thermal cycling. It is recommended that additional and more comprehensive testing under long term cycling be carried out to fully establish the reliability of these devices and to determine their suitability for use in space exploration missions under extreme temperature conditions.

Free and total thyroid hormones in humans at extreme altitude

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Basu, Minakshi; Pal, K.; Malhotra, A. S.; Prasad, R.; Sawhney, R. C.

1995-03-01

Alterations in circulatory levels of total T4 (TT4), total T3 (TT3), free T4 (FT4), free T3 (FT3), thyrotropin (TSH) and T3 uptake (T3U) were studied in male and female sea-level residents (SLR) at sea level, in Armed forces personnel staying at high altitude (3750 m) for prolonged duration (acclimatized lowlanders, ALL) and in high-altitude natives (HAN). Identical studies were also performed on male ALL who trekked to an extreme altitude of 5080 m and stayed at an altitude of more than 6300 m for about 6 months. The total as well as free thyroid hormones were found to be significantly higher in ALL and HAN as compared to SLR values. Both male as well as female HAN had higher levels of thyroid hormones. The rise in hormone levels in different ALL ethnic groups drawn from amongst the southern and northern parts of the country was more or less identical. In both HAN and ALL a decline in FT3 and FT4 occurred when these subjects trekked at subzero temperatures to extreme altitude of 5080 m but the levels were found to be higher in ALL who stayed at 6300 m for a prolonged duration. Plasma TSH did not show any appreciable change at lower altitudes but was found to be decreased at extreme altitude. The increase in thyroid hormones at high altitude was not due to an increase in hormone binding proteins, since T3U was found to be higher at high altitudes. A decline in TSH and hormone binding proteins and an increase in the free moiety of the hormones is indicative of a subtle degree of tissue hyperthyroidism which may be playing an important role in combating the extreme cold and hypoxic environment of high altitudes.

Are recent severe floods in Xiang River basin of China linked with the increase extreme precipitation?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheng, L.; Du, J.

2015-12-01

The Xiang River, a main tributary of the Yangtze River, is subjected to high floods frequently in recent twenty years. Climate change, including abrupt shifts and fluctuations in precipitation is an important factor influencing hydrological extreme conditions. In addition, human activities are widely recognized as another reasons leading to high flood risk. With the effects of climate change and human interventions on hydrological cycle, there are several questions that need to be addressed. Are floods in the Xiang River basin getting worse? Whether the extreme streamflow shows an increasing tendency? If so, is it because the extreme rainfall events have predominant effect on floods? To answer these questions, the article detected existing trends in extreme precipitation and discharge using Mann-Kendall test. Continuous wavelet transform method was employed to identify the consistency of changes in extreme precipitation and discharge. The Pearson correlation analysis was applied to investigate how much degree of variations in extreme discharge can be explained by climate change. The results indicate that slightly upward trends can be detected in both extreme rainfalls and discharge in the upper region of Xiang River basin. For the most area of middle and lower river basin, the extreme rainfalls show significant positive trends, but the extreme discharge displays slightly upward trends with no significance at 90% confidence level. Wavelet transform analysis results illustrate that highly similar patterns of signal changes can be seen between extreme precipitation and discharge in upper section of the basin, while the changes in extreme precipitation for the middle and lower reaches do not always coincide with the extreme streamflow. The correlation coefficients of the wavelet transforms for the precipitation and discharge signals in most area of the basin pass the significance test. The conclusion may be drawn that floods in recent years are not getting worse in Xiang River basin. The similar signal patterns and positive correlation between extreme discharge and precipitation indicate that the variability of extreme precipitation has an important effect on extreme discharge of flood, although the intensity of human impacts in lower section of Xiang River basin has increased markedly.

Extreme weather: Subtropical floods and tropical cyclones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shaevitz, Daniel A.

Extreme weather events have a large effect on society. As such, it is important to understand these events and to project how they may change in a future, warmer climate. The aim of this thesis is to develop a deeper understanding of two types of extreme weather events: subtropical floods and tropical cyclones (TCs). In the subtropics, the latitude is high enough that quasi-geostrophic dynamics are at least qualitatively relevant, while low enough that moisture may be abundant and convection strong. Extratropical extreme precipitation events are usually associated with large-scale flow disturbances, strong ascent, and large latent heat release. In the first part of this thesis, I examine the possible triggering of convection by the large-scale dynamics and investigate the coupling between the two. Specifically two examples of extreme precipitation events in the subtropics are analyzed, the 2010 and 2014 floods of India and Pakistan and the 2015 flood of Texas and Oklahoma. I invert the quasi-geostrophic omega equation to decompose the large-scale vertical motion profile to components due to synoptic forcing and diabatic heating. Additionally, I present model results from within the Column Quasi-Geostrophic framework. A single column model and cloud-revolving model are forced with the large-scale forcings (other than large-scale vertical motion) computed from the quasi-geostrophic omega equation with input data from a reanalysis data set, and the large-scale vertical motion is diagnosed interactively with the simulated convection. It is found that convection was triggered primarily by mechanically forced orographic ascent over the Himalayas during the India/Pakistan flood and by upper-level Potential Vorticity disturbances during the Texas/Oklahoma flood. Furthermore, a climate attribution analysis was conducted for the Texas/Oklahoma flood and it is found that anthropogenic climate change was responsible for a small amount of rainfall during the event but the intensity of this event may be greatly increased if it occurs in a future climate. In the second part of this thesis, I examine the ability of high-resolution global atmospheric models to simulate TCs. Specifically, I present an intercomparison of several models' ability to simulate the global characteristics of TCs in the current climate. This is a necessary first step before using these models to project future changes in TCs. Overall, the models were able to reproduce the geographic distribution of TCs reasonably well, with some of the models performing remarkably well. The intensity of TCs varied widely between the models, with some of this difference being due to model resolution.

Digitalizing historical high resolution water level data: Challenges and opportunities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holinde, Lars; Hein, Hartmut; Barjenbruch, Ulrich

2017-04-01

Historical tide-gauge data offer the opportunities for determining variations in key characteristics for water level data and the analyses of past extreme events (storm surges). These information are important for calculating future trends and scenarios. But there are challenges involved due to the extensive effort needed to digitalize gauge sheets and quality control the resulting historical data. Based on these conditions, two main sources for inaccuracies in historical time series can be identified. First are several challenges due to the digitalization of the historical data, e.g. general quality of the sheets, multiple crossing lines of the observed water levels and additional comments on the sheet describing problems or additional information during the measurements. Second are problems during the measurements themselves. These can include the incorrect positioning of the sheets, trouble with the tide-gauge and maintenance. Errors resulting from these problems can be e.g. flat lines, discontinuities and outlier. Especially, the characterization of outliers has to be conducted carefully, to distinguish between real outliers and the appearance of extreme events. Methods for the quality control process involve the use of statistics, machine learning and neural networks. These will be described and applied to three different time series from tide gauge stations at the cost of Lower Saxony, Germany. Resulting difficulties and outcomes of the quality control process will be presented and explained. Furthermore, we will present a first glance at analyses for these time series.

ENSO Atmospheric Teleconnections and Their Response to Greenhouse Gas Forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yeh, Sang-Wook; Cai, Wenju; Min, Seung-Ki; McPhaden, Michael J.; Dommenget, Dietmar; Dewitte, Boris; Collins, Matthew; Ashok, Karumuri; An, Soon-Il; Yim, Bo-Young; Kug, Jong-Seong

2018-03-01

El Niño and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most prominent year-to-year climate fluctuation on Earth, alternating between anomalously warm (El Niño) and cold (La Niña) sea surface temperature (SST) conditions in the tropical Pacific. ENSO exerts its impacts on remote regions of the globe through atmospheric teleconnections, affecting extreme weather events worldwide. However, these teleconnections are inherently nonlinear and sensitive to ENSO SST anomaly patterns and amplitudes. In addition, teleconnections are modulated by variability in the oceanic and atmopsheric mean state outside the tropics and by land and sea ice extent. The character of ENSO as well as the ocean mean state have changed since the 1990s, which might be due to either natural variability or anthropogenic forcing, or their combined influences. This has resulted in changes in ENSO atmospheric teleconnections in terms of precipitation and temperature in various parts of the globe. In addition, changes in ENSO teleconnection patterns have affected their predictability and the statistics of extreme events. However, the short observational record does not allow us to clearly distinguish which changes are robust and which are not. Climate models suggest that ENSO teleconnections will change because the mean atmospheric circulation will change due to anthropogenic forcing in the 21st century, which is independent of whether ENSO properties change or not. However, future ENSO teleconnection changes do not currently show strong intermodel agreement from region to region, highlighting the importance of identifying factors that affect uncertainty in future model projections.

Landslide Hazard Assessment near Kedarnath Temple in Himalayan region considering cloudburst tragedy in 2013

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ansari, T. A.; Singh, T. N., Sr.

2017-12-01

The world famous Shri Kedarnath Temple in Uttarakhand state of India is located in the western extremity of the young and dynamically active Central Himalaya. As Indian plate is moving towards Eurasian plate which has steep slopes, highly variable altitudes and uncertain climatic conditions. Due to high seismic activity Himalayan rock mass is highly fractured, shattered and inherently weakness pose threat for landslide. On 16th and 17th June 2013, was witness an extreme climatic events of century in the history of the region, the high intensity rainfall, (> 400mm) caused number of landslide which have adverse economic and societal impacts, including the potential for heavy loss of human and widespread devastation of natural resources, infrastructures. The study region is at high altitude around 3583 meters, which is affected from impact of glacial melt due to climate change and future increase in rainfall subjected to high level uncertainty of landslides. Aerial and field survey has been done of the region and most vulnerable landslide locations of hill slope and road cut slope are studied for future prospect of safety. SLIDE 6.0, PHASE27 (numerical software) for slope stability, geomechanical profile of rock and kinematics analysis to know the type of failures. Rock quality tunneling index (Q), Geological strength (GSI), Slope mass Rating (SMR) and factor of safety were determined to know the slope instability. Our finding provides an important aspect for future safety as provide the information for landslide warning system and engineering countermeasures.

Nonhydrostatic and surfbeat model predictions of extreme wave run-up in fringing reef environments

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lashley, Christopher H.; Roelvink, Dano; van Dongeren, Ap R.; Buckley, Mark L.; Lowe, Ryan J.

2018-01-01

The accurate prediction of extreme wave run-up is important for effective coastal engineering design and coastal hazard management. While run-up processes on open sandy coasts have been reasonably well-studied, very few studies have focused on understanding and predicting wave run-up at coral reef-fronted coastlines. This paper applies the short-wave resolving, Nonhydrostatic (XB-NH) and short-wave averaged, Surfbeat (XB-SB) modes of the XBeach numerical model to validate run-up using data from two 1D (alongshore uniform) fringing-reef profiles without roughness elements, with two objectives: i) to provide insight into the physical processes governing run-up in such environments; and ii) to evaluate the performance of both modes in accurately predicting run-up over a wide range of conditions. XBeach was calibrated by optimizing the maximum wave steepness parameter (maxbrsteep) in XB-NH and the dissipation coefficient (alpha) in XB-SB) using the first dataset; and then applied to the second dataset for validation. XB-NH and XB-SB predictions of extreme wave run-up (Rmax and R2%) and its components, infragravity- and sea-swell band swash (SIG and SSS) and shoreline setup (<η>), were compared to observations. XB-NH more accurately simulated wave transformation but under-predicted shoreline setup due to its exclusion of parameterized wave-roller dynamics. XB-SB under-predicted sea-swell band swash but overestimated shoreline setup due to an over-prediction of wave heights on the reef flat. Run-up (swash) spectra were dominated by infragravity motions, allowing the short-wave (but not wave group) averaged model (XB-SB) to perform comparably well to its more complete, short-wave resolving (XB-NH) counterpart. Despite their respective limitations, both modes were able to accurately predict Rmax and R2%.

Biota and Biomolecules in Extreme Environments on Earth: Implications for Life Detection on Mars

PubMed Central

Aerts, Joost W.; Röling, Wilfred F.M.; Elsaesser, Andreas; Ehrenfreund, Pascale

2014-01-01

The three main requirements for life as we know it are the presence of organic compounds, liquid water, and free energy. Several groups of organic compounds (e.g., amino acids, nucleobases, lipids) occur in all life forms on Earth and are used as diagnostic molecules, i.e., biomarkers, for the characterization of extant or extinct life. Due to their indispensability for life on Earth, these biomarkers are also prime targets in the search for life on Mars. Biomarkers degrade over time; in situ environmental conditions influence the preservation of those molecules. Nonetheless, upon shielding (e.g., by mineral surfaces), particular biomarkers can persist for billions of years, making them of vital importance in answering questions about the origins and limits of life on early Earth and Mars. The search for organic material and biosignatures on Mars is particularly challenging due to the hostile environment and its effect on organic compounds near the surface. In support of life detection on Mars, it is crucial to investigate analogue environments on Earth that resemble best past and present Mars conditions. Terrestrial extreme environments offer a rich source of information allowing us to determine how extreme conditions affect life and molecules associated with it. Extremophilic organisms have adapted to the most stunning conditions on Earth in environments with often unique geological and chemical features. One challenge in detecting biomarkers is to optimize extraction, since organic molecules can be low in abundance and can strongly adsorb to mineral surfaces. Methods and analytical tools in the field of life science are continuously improving. Amplification methods are very useful for the detection of low concentrations of genomic material but most other organic molecules are not prone to amplification methods. Therefore, a great deal depends on the extraction efficiency. The questions “what to look for”, “where to look”, and “how to look for it” require more of our attention to ensure the success of future life detection missions on Mars. PMID:25370528

Biota and biomolecules in extreme environments on Earth: implications for life detection on Mars.

PubMed

Aerts, Joost W; Röling, Wilfred F M; Elsaesser, Andreas; Ehrenfreund, Pascale

2014-10-13

The three main requirements for life as we know it are the presence of organic compounds, liquid water, and free energy. Several groups of organic compounds (e.g., amino acids, nucleobases, lipids) occur in all life forms on Earth and are used as diagnostic molecules, i.e., biomarkers, for the characterization of extant or extinct life. Due to their indispensability for life on Earth, these biomarkers are also prime targets in the search for life on Mars. Biomarkers degrade over time; in situ environmental conditions influence the preservation of those molecules. Nonetheless, upon shielding (e.g., by mineral surfaces), particular biomarkers can persist for billions of years, making them of vital importance in answering questions about the origins and limits of life on early Earth and Mars. The search for organic material and biosignatures on Mars is particularly challenging due to the hostile environment and its effect on organic compounds near the surface. In support of life detection on Mars, it is crucial to investigate analogue environments on Earth that resemble best past and present Mars conditions. Terrestrial extreme environments offer a rich source of information allowing us to determine how extreme conditions affect life and molecules associated with it. Extremophilic organisms have adapted to the most stunning conditions on Earth in environments with often unique geological and chemical features. One challenge in detecting biomarkers is to optimize extraction, since organic molecules can be low in abundance and can strongly adsorb to mineral surfaces. Methods and analytical tools in the field of life science are continuously improving. Amplification methods are very useful for the detection of low concentrations of genomic material but most other organic molecules are not prone to amplification methods. Therefore, a great deal depends on the extraction efficiency. The questions "what to look for", "where to look", and "how to look for it" require more of our attention to ensure the success of future life detection missions on Mars.

Potential Impacts of Future Climate Change on Regional Air Quality and Public Health over China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hong, C.; Zhang, Q.; Zhang, Y.; He, K.

2017-12-01

Future climate change would affect public health through changing air quality. Climate extremes and poor weather conditions are likely to occur at a higher frequency in China under a changing climate, but the air pollution-related health impacts due to future climate change remain unclear. Here the potential impacts of future climate change on regional air quality and public health over China is projected using a coupling of climate, air quality and epidemiological models. We present the first assessment of China's future air quality in a changing climate under the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) scenario using the dynamical downscaling technique. In RCP4.5 scenario, we estimate that climate change from 2006-2010 to 2046-2050 is likely to adversely affect air quality covering more than 86% of population and 55% of land area in China, causing an average increase of 3% in O3 and PM2.5 concentrations, which are found to be associated with the warmer climate and the more stable atmosphere. Our estimate of air pollution-related mortality due to climate change in 2050 is 26,000 people per year in China. Of which, the PM2.5-related mortality is 18,700 people per year, and the O3-related mortality is 7,300 people per year. The climate-induced air pollution and health impacts vary spatially. The climate impacts are even more pronounced on the urban areas where is densely populated and polluted. 90% of the health loss is concentrated in 20% of land areas in China. We use a simple statistical analysis method to quantify the contributions of climate extremes and find more intense climate extremes play an important role in climate-induced air pollution-related health impacts. Our results indicate that global climate change will likely alter the level of pollutant management required to meet future air quality targets as well as the efforts to protect public health in China.

Semistable extremal ground states for nonlinear evolution equations in unbounded domains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodríguez-Bernal, Aníbal; Vidal-López, Alejandro

2008-02-01

In this paper we show that dissipative reaction-diffusion equations in unbounded domains posses extremal semistable ground states equilibria, which bound asymptotically the global dynamics. Uniqueness of such positive ground state and their approximation by extremal equilibria in bounded domains is also studied. The results are then applied to the important case of logistic equations.

On alternative q-Weibull and q-extreme value distributions: Properties and applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Fode; Ng, Hon Keung Tony; Shi, Yimin

2018-01-01

Tsallis statistics and Tsallis distributions have been attracting a significant amount of research work in recent years. Importantly, the Tsallis statistics, q-distributions have been applied in different disciplines. Yet, a relationship between some existing q-Weibull distributions and q-extreme value distributions that is parallel to the well-established relationship between the conventional Weibull and extreme value distributions through a logarithmic transformation has not be established. In this paper, we proposed an alternative q-Weibull distribution that leads to a q-extreme value distribution via the q-logarithm transformation. Some important properties of the proposed q-Weibull and q-extreme value distributions are studied. Maximum likelihood and least squares estimation methods are used to estimate the parameters of q-Weibull distribution and their performances are investigated through a Monte Carlo simulation study. The methodologies and the usefulness of the proposed distributions are illustrated by fitting the 2014 traffic fatalities data from The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration.

Spatiotemporal variation in heat-related out-of-hospital cardiac arrest during the summer in Japan.

PubMed

Onozuka, Daisuke; Hagihara, Akihito

2017-04-01

Although several studies have reported the impacts of extremely high temperature on cardiovascular diseases, few studies have investigated the spatiotemporal variation in the incidence of out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) due to extremely high temperature in Japan. Daily OHCA data from 2005 to 2014 were acquired from all 47 prefectures of Japan. We used time-series Poisson regression analysis combined with a distributed lag non-linear model to assess the temporal variability in the effects of extremely high temperature on OHCA incidence in each prefecture, adjusted for time trends. Spatial variability in the relationships between extremely high temperature and OHCA between prefectures was estimated using a multivariate random-effects meta-analysis. We analyzed 166,496 OHCA cases of presumed cardiac origin occurring during the summer (June to September) that met the inclusion criteria. The minimum morbidity percentile (MMP) was the 51st percentile of temperature during the summer in Japan. The overall cumulative relative risk at the 99th percentile vs. the MMP over lags 0-10days was 1.21 (95% CI: 1.12-1.31). There was also a strong low temperature effect during the summer periods. No substantial difference in spatial or temporal variability was observed over the study period. Our study demonstrated spatiotemporal homogeneity in the risk of OHCA during periods of extremely high temperature between 2005 and 2014 in Japan. Our findings suggest that public health strategies for OHCA due to extremely high temperatures should be finely adjusted and should particularly account for the unchanging risk during the summer. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Dry seasons identified in oak tree-ring chronology in the Czech Lands over the last millennium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dobrovolny, Petr; Brazdil, Rudolf; Büntgen, Ulf; Rybnicek, Michal; Kolar, Tomas; Reznickova, Ladislava; Valasek, Hubert; Kotyza, Oldrich

2015-04-01

There is growing evidence on amplification of hydrological regimes as a consequence of rising temperatures, increase in evaporation and changes in circulation patterns. These processes may be responsible for higher probability of hydroclimatic extremes occurrence in regional scale. Extreme events such as floods or droughts are rare from their definition and for better understanding of possible changes in the frequency and intensity of their occurrence, long-term proxy archives may be analysed. Recently several tree ring width chronologies were compiled from hardwood species occurring in lowland positions and their analysis proved that they are moisture-sensitive and suitable for hydroclimate reconstructions. Here, we introduce a new oak (Quercus sp) ring width (RW) dataset for the Czech Republic and the last 1250 years. We explain the process of oak chronology standardization that was based on several only slightly different de-trending techniques and subsequent chronology development steps. We hypothesize that the most severe RW increment reductions (negative extremes) reflect extremely dry spring-summer conditions. Negative extremes were assigned for years in which transformed oak RWs were lower than the minus 1.5 standard deviation. To verify our hypothesis, we compare typical climatic conditions in negative extreme years with climatology of the reference period 1961-1990. Comparison was done for various instrumental measurements (1805-2012), existing proxy reconstructions (1500-1804) and also for documentary evidence from historical archives (before 1500). We found that years of negative extremes are characterized with distinctly above average spring (MAM) and summer (JJA) air temperatures and below average precipitation amounts. Typical sea level pressure spatial distribution in those years shows positive pressure anomaly over British Isles and Northern Sea, the pattern that synoptically corresponds to blocking anticyclone bringing to Central Europe warm air from SW and low precipitation totals with higher probability of drought occurrence. Our results provide consistent physical explanation of extremely dry seasons occurring in Central Europe. However, direct comparisons of individual RW extreme seasons with existing documentary evidence show the complexity the problem as some extremes identified in oak RW chronology were not confirmed in documentary archives and vice versa. We discuss possible causes of such differences related to the fact that various proxies may have problems to record real intensity or duration of extreme events e.g. due to non-linear response of proxy data to climate drivers or due to shift in seasonality.

Relative importance of impervious area, drainage density, width function, and subsurface storm drainage on flood runoff from an urbanized catchment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ogden, Fred L.; Raj Pradhan, Nawa; Downer, Charles W.; Zahner, Jon A.

2011-12-01

The literature contains contradictory conclusions regarding the relative effects of urbanization on peak flood flows due to increases in impervious area, drainage density and width function, and the addition of subsurface storm drains. We used data from an urbanized catchment, the 14.3 km2 Dead Run watershed near Baltimore, Maryland, USA, and the physics-based gridded surface/subsurface hydrologic analysis (GSSHA) model to examine the relative effect of each of these factors on flood peaks, runoff volumes, and runoff production efficiencies. GSSHA was used because the model explicitly includes the spatial variability of land-surface and hydrodynamic parameters, including subsurface storm drains. Results indicate that increases in drainage density, particularly increases in density from low values, produce significant increases in the flood peaks. For a fixed land-use and rainfall input, the flood magnitude approaches an upper limit regardless of the increase in the channel drainage density. Changes in imperviousness can have a significant effect on flood peaks for both moderately extreme and extreme storms. For an extreme rainfall event with a recurrence interval in excess of 100 years, imperviousness is relatively unimportant in terms of runoff efficiency and volume, but can affect the peak flow depending on rainfall rate. Changes to the width function affect flood peaks much more than runoff efficiency, primarily in the case of lower density drainage networks with less impermeable area. Storm drains increase flood peaks, but are overwhelmed during extreme rainfall events when they have a negligible effect. Runoff in urbanized watersheds with considerable impervious area shows a marked sensitivity to rainfall rate. This sensitivity explains some of the contradictory findings in the literature.

Robot-aided assessment of lower extremity functions: a review.

PubMed

Maggioni, Serena; Melendez-Calderon, Alejandro; van Asseldonk, Edwin; Klamroth-Marganska, Verena; Lünenburger, Lars; Riener, Robert; van der Kooij, Herman

2016-08-02

The assessment of sensorimotor functions is extremely important to understand the health status of a patient and its change over time. Assessments are necessary to plan and adjust the therapy in order to maximize the chances of individual recovery. Nowadays, however, assessments are seldom used in clinical practice due to administrative constraints or to inadequate validity, reliability and responsiveness. In clinical trials, more sensitive and reliable measurement scales could unmask changes in physiological variables that would not be visible with existing clinical scores.In the last decades robotic devices have become available for neurorehabilitation training in clinical centers. Besides training, robotic devices can overcome some of the limitations in traditional clinical assessments by providing more objective, sensitive, reliable and time-efficient measurements. However, it is necessary to understand the clinical needs to be able to develop novel robot-aided assessment methods that can be integrated in clinical practice.This paper aims at providing researchers and developers in the field of robotic neurorehabilitation with a comprehensive review of assessment methods for the lower extremities. Among the ICF domains, we included those related to lower extremities sensorimotor functions and walking; for each chapter we present and discuss existing assessments used in routine clinical practice and contrast those to state-of-the-art instrumented and robot-aided technologies. Based on the shortcomings of current assessments, on the identified clinical needs and on the opportunities offered by robotic devices, we propose future directions for research in rehabilitation robotics. The review and recommendations provided in this paper aim to guide the design of the next generation of robot-aided functional assessments, their validation and their translation to clinical practice.

Risk-based water resources planning: Coupling water allocation and water quality management under extreme droughts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mortazavi-Naeini, M.; Bussi, G.; Hall, J. W.; Whitehead, P. G.

2016-12-01

The main aim of water companies is to have a reliable and safe water supply system. To fulfil their duty the water companies have to consider both water quality and quantity issues and challenges. Climate change and population growth will have an impact on water resources both in terms of available water and river water quality. Traditionally, a distinct separation between water quality and abstraction has existed. However, water quality can be a bottleneck in a system since water treatment works can only treat water if it meets certain standards. For instance, high turbidity and large phytoplankton content can increase sharply the cost of treatment or even make river water unfit for human consumption purposes. It is vital for water companies to be able to characterise the quantity and quality of water under extreme weather events and to consider the occurrence of eventual periods when water abstraction has to cease due to water quality constraints. This will give them opportunity to decide on water resource planning and potential changes to reduce the system failure risk. We present a risk-based approach for incorporating extreme events, based on future climate change scenarios from a large ensemble of climate model realisations, into integrated water resources model through combined use of water allocation (WATHNET) and water quality (INCA) models. The annual frequency of imposed restrictions on demand is considered as measure of reliability. We tested our approach on Thames region, in the UK, with 100 extreme events. The results show increase in frequency of imposed restrictions when water quality constraints were considered. This indicates importance of considering water quality issues in drought management plans.

Climate change impact on North Sea wave conditions: a consistent analysis of ten projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grabemann, Iris; Groll, Nikolaus; Möller, Jens; Weisse, Ralf

2015-02-01

Long-term changes in the mean and extreme wind wave conditions as they may occur in the course of anthropogenic climate change can influence and endanger human coastal and offshore activities. A set of ten wave climate projections derived from time slice and transient simulations of future conditions is analyzed to estimate the possible impact of anthropogenic climate change on mean and extreme wave conditions in the North Sea. This set includes different combinations of IPCC SRES emission scenarios (A2, B2, A1B, and B1), global and regional models, and initial states. A consistent approach is used to provide a more robust assessment of expected changes and uncertainties. While the spatial patterns and the magnitude of the climate change signals vary, some robust features among the ten projections emerge: mean and severe wave heights tend to increase in the eastern parts of the North Sea towards the end of the twenty-first century in nine to ten projections, but the magnitude of the increase in extreme waves varies in the order of decimeters between these projections. For the western parts of the North Sea more than half of the projections suggest a decrease in mean and extreme wave heights. Comparing the different sources of uncertainties due to models, scenarios, and initial conditions, it can be inferred that the influence of the emission scenario on the climate change signal seems to be less important. Furthermore, the transient projections show strong multi-decadal fluctuations, and changes towards the end of the twenty-first century might partly be associated with internal variability rather than with systematic changes.

An Assessment of Direct and Indirect Economic Losses of Climatic Extreme Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Otto, C.; Willner, S. N.; Wenz, L.; Levermann, A.

2015-12-01

Risk of extreme weather events like storms, heat extremes, and floods has already risen due to anthropogenic climate change and is likely to increase further under future global warming. Additionally, the structure of the global economy has changed importantly in the last decades. In the process of globalization, local economies have become more and more interwoven forming a complex network. Together with a trend towards lean production, this has resulted in a strong dependency of local manufacturers on global supply and value added chains, which may render the economic network more vulnerable to climatic extremes; outages of local manufacturers trigger indirect losses, which spread along supply chains and can even outstrip direct losses. Accordingly, in a comprehensive climate risk assessment these inter-linkages should be considered. Here, we present acclimate, an agent based dynamic damage propagation model. Its agents are production and consumption sites, which are interlinked by economic flows accounting for the complexity as well as the heterogeneity of the global supply network. Assessing the economic response on the timescale of the adverse event, the model permits to study temporal and spatial evolution of indirect production losses during the disaster and in the subsequent recovery phase of the economy. In this study, we focus on the dynamic economic resilience defined here as the ratio of direct to total losses. This implies that the resilience of the system under consideration is low if the high indirect losses are high. We find and assess a nonlinear dependence of the resilience on the disaster size. Further, we analyze the influence of the network structure upon resilience and discuss the potential of warehousing as an adaptation option.

Extreme storm surge modelling in the North Sea. The role of the sea state, forcing frequency and spatial forcing resolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ridder, Nina; de Vries, Hylke; Drijfhout, Sybren; van den Brink, Henk; van Meijgaard, Erik; de Vries, Hans

2018-02-01

This study shows that storm surge model performance in the North Sea is mostly unaffected by the application of temporal variations of surface drag due to changes in sea state provided the choice of a suitable constant Charnock parameter in the sea-state-independent case. Including essential meteorological features on smaller scales and minimising interpolation errors by increasing forcing data resolution are shown to be more important for the improvement of model performance particularly at the high tail of the probability distribution. This is found in a modelling study using WAQUA/DCSMv5 by evaluating the influence of a realistic air-sea momentum transfer parameterization and comparing it to the influence of changes in the spatial and temporal resolution of the applied forcing fields in an effort to support the improvement of impact and climate analysis studies. Particular attention is given to the representation of extreme water levels over the past decades based on the example of the Netherlands. For this, WAQUA/DCSMv5 is forced with ERA-Interim reanalysis data. Model results are obtained from a set of different forcing fields, which either (i) include a wave-state-dependent Charnock parameter or (ii) apply a constant Charnock parameter ( α C h = 0.032) tuned for young sea states in the North Sea, but differ in their spatial and/or temporal resolution. Increasing forcing field resolution from roughly 79 to 12 km through dynamically downscaling can reduce the modelled low bias, depending on coastal station, by up to 0.25 m for the modelled extreme water levels with a 1-year return period and between 0.1 m and 0.5 m for extreme surge heights.

Attribution of extreme events in the western US to human activities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mera, R. J.

2015-12-01

A project to investigate the role of human activities on the changing nature of extreme events in the western US began as part of a CLIVAR-sponsored Postdocs Applying Climate Expertise (PACE) project. The climate institution was the Oregon State University and the application partner was the Oregon Department of Land Conservation and Development (DLCD). DLCD was interested in the changes in weather extremes in the Pacific Northwest, specifically extreme rainfall, flooding, and droughts. The project employs very large ensembles of regional model simulations through volunteer computing resources and allows for probabilistic event attribution (PEA), an important climate research technique. The model was found to have good representation of atmospheric rivers, a major source of extreme precipitation in the Pacific Northwest. The model domain also encompasses California and Nevada. One of the studies focused on attribution of extreme heat in relation to vulnerable populations in California's Central Valley, where heat waves have become progressively more severe due to increasing nighttime temperatures. Specifically, we found that that (1) simulations of the hottest summer days during the 2000s were twice as likely to occur using observed levels of greenhouse gases than in a counterfactual world without major human activities, (2) detrimental impacts of heat on public health-relevant variables, such as the number of days above 40°C, can be quantified and attributed to human activities using PEA, and (3) PEA can serve as a tool for addressing climate justice concerns of populations within developed nations. The research conducted through the PACE program has also provided a framework for a pioneering climate attribution study at the Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS). The UCS project takes advantage of new research that shows that nearly two-thirds of carbon pollution released into the atmosphere, reported as carbon dioxide equivalent with hundred-year global warming potentials, can be traced to carbon extracted from the Earth by a subset of producers of coal, oil, natural gas, and cement manufacturers. The approach for this study is to use superensembles of regional model simulations to explore the specific fractional attribution to emissions traceable to 90 major industrial carbon producers.

Integrating new indicators of predictors that shape the public's perception of local extreme temperature in China.

PubMed

Ban, Jie; Huang, Lei; Chen, Chen; Guo, Yuming; He, Mike Z; Li, Tiantian

2017-02-01

The public's risk perception of local extreme heat or cold plays a critical role in community health and prevention under climate change. However, there is limited evidence on such issues in China where extreme weather is occurring more frequently due to climate change. Here, a total of 2500 residents were selected using a three-step sampling method and investigated by a questionnaire in two representative cities. We investigated risk perception of extreme heat in Beijing and extreme cold in Harbin in 2013, aiming to examine their possible correlations with multiple epidemiological factors. We found that exposure, vulnerability, and adaptive ability were significant predictors in shaping public risk perceptions of local extreme temperature. In particular, a 1°C increase in daily temperature resulted in an increased odds of perceiving serious extreme heat in Beijing (OR=1.091; 95% CI: 1.032, 1.153), while a 1°C increase in daily temperature resulted in a decreased odds of perceiving serious extreme cold in Harbin (OR=0.965; 95% CI: 0.939, 0.992). Therefore for both extreme heat and cold, frequent local extreme temperature exposure may amplify a stronger communication. Health interventions for extreme temperature should consider exposure, vulnerability, and adaptive ability factors. This will help improve the public's perception of climatic changes and their willingness to balance adaption and mitigation appropriately. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Numerical modeling of macrodispersion in heterogeneous media: a comparison of multi-Gaussian and non-multi-Gaussian models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wen, Xian-Huan; Gómez-Hernández, J. Jaime

1998-03-01

The macrodispersion of an inert solute in a 2-D heterogeneous porous media is estimated numerically in a series of fields of varying heterogeneity. Four different random function (RF) models are used to model log-transmissivity (ln T) spatial variability, and for each of these models, ln T variance is varied from 0.1 to 2.0. The four RF models share the same univariate Gaussian histogram and the same isotropic covariance, but differ from one another in terms of the spatial connectivity patterns at extreme transmissivity values. More specifically, model A is a multivariate Gaussian model for which, by definition, extreme values (both high and low) are spatially uncorrelated. The other three models are non-multi-Gaussian: model B with high connectivity of high extreme values, model C with high connectivity of low extreme values, and model D with high connectivities of both high and low extreme values. Residence time distributions (RTDs) and macrodispersivities (longitudinal and transverse) are computed on ln T fields corresponding to the different RF models, for two different flow directions and at several scales. They are compared with each other, as well as with predicted values based on first-order analytical results. Numerically derived RTDs and macrodispersivities for the multi-Gaussian model are in good agreement with analytically derived values using first-order theories for log-transmissivity variance up to 2.0. The results from the non-multi-Gaussian models differ from each other and deviate largely from the multi-Gaussian results even when ln T variance is small. RTDs in non-multi-Gaussian realizations with high connectivity at high extreme values display earlier breakthrough than in multi-Gaussian realizations, whereas later breakthrough and longer tails are observed for RTDs from non-multi-Gaussian realizations with high connectivity at low extreme values. Longitudinal macrodispersivities in the non-multi-Gaussian realizations are, in general, larger than in the multi-Gaussian ones, while transverse macrodispersivities in the non-multi-Gaussian realizations can be larger or smaller than in the multi-Gaussian ones depending on the type of connectivity at extreme values. Comparing the numerical results for different flow directions, it is confirmed that macrodispersivities in multi-Gaussian realizations with isotropic spatial correlation are not flow direction-dependent. Macrodispersivities in the non-multi-Gaussian realizations, however, are flow direction-dependent although the covariance of ln T is isotropic (the same for all four models). It is important to account for high connectivities at extreme transmissivity values, a likely situation in some geological formations. Some of the discrepancies between first-order-based analytical results and field-scale tracer test data may be due to the existence of highly connected paths of extreme conductivity values.

The Arm is Not the Leg: Pathophysiology, Diagnosis, and Management of Upper Extremity Deep Vein Thrombosis.

PubMed

Noyes, Adam M; Dickey, John

2017-05-01

Upper extremity deep venous thrombosis (UEDVT) involves thrombosis of the deep veins of the arm as they enter the thorax. They are increasing in frequency, largely due to the rising use of central venous catheters and implantable cardiac devices, and represent more than 10% of all DVT cases, Upper extremity deep venous thrombosis has been historically misunderstood when compared to lower extremity deep vein thrombosis (LEDVT). Their associated disease states may carry devastating complications, with mortality rates often higher than that of LEDVT. Thus, education on recognition, classification and management is critical to avoid long-term sequelae and mortality from UEDVT. [Full article available at http://rimed.org/rimedicaljournal-2017-05.asp].

Arctic sea ice, Eurasia snow, and extreme winter haze in China.

PubMed

Zou, Yufei; Wang, Yuhang; Zhang, Yuzhong; Koo, Ja-Ho

2017-03-01

The East China Plains (ECP) region experienced the worst haze pollution on record for January in 2013. We show that the unprecedented haze event is due to the extremely poor ventilation conditions, which had not been seen in the preceding three decades. Statistical analysis suggests that the extremely poor ventilation conditions are linked to Arctic sea ice loss in the preceding autumn and extensive boreal snowfall in the earlier winter. We identify the regional circulation mode that leads to extremely poor ventilation over the ECP region. Climate model simulations indicate that boreal cryospheric forcing enhances the regional circulation mode of poor ventilation in the ECP region and provides conducive conditions for extreme haze such as that of 2013. Consequently, extreme haze events in winter will likely occur at a higher frequency in China as a result of the changing boreal cryosphere, posing difficult challenges for winter haze mitigation but providing a strong incentive for greenhouse gas emission reduction.

Hypothyroid-induced acute compartment syndrome in all extremities.

PubMed

Musielak, Matthew C; Chae, Jung Hee

2016-12-20

Acute compartment syndrome (ACS) is an uncommon complication of uncontrolled hypothyroidism. If unrecognized, this can lead to ischemia, necrosis and potential limb loss. A 49-year-old female presented with the sudden onset of bilateral lower and upper extremity swelling and pain. The lower extremity anterior compartments were painful and tense. The extensor surface of the upper extremities exhibited swelling and pain. Motor function was intact, however, limited due to pain. Bilateral lower extremity fasciotomies were performed. Postoperative Day 1, upper extremity motor function decreased significantly and paresthesias occurred. She therefore underwent bilateral forearm fasciotomies. The pathogenesis of hypothyroidism-induced compartment syndrome is unclear. Thyroid-stimulating hormone-induced fibroblast activation results in increased glycosaminoglycan deposition. The primary glycosaminoglycan in hypothyroid myxedematous changes is hyaluronic acid, which binds water causing edema. This increases vascular permeability, extravasation of proteins and impaired lymphatic drainage. These contribute to increased intra-compartmental pressure and subsequent ACS. Published by Oxford University Press and JSCR Publishing Ltd. All rights reserved. © The Author 2016.

Extreme cyclone events in the Arctic: Wintertime variability and trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rinke, A.; Maturilli, M.; Graham, R. M.; Matthes, H.; Handorf, D.; Cohen, L.; Hudson, S. R.; Moore, J. C.

2017-09-01

Typically 20-40 extreme cyclone events (sometimes called ‘weather bombs’) occur in the Arctic North Atlantic per winter season, with an increasing trend of 6 events/decade over 1979-2015, according to 6 hourly station data from Ny-Ålesund. This increased frequency of extreme cyclones is consistent with observed significant winter warming, indicating that the meridional heat and moisture transport they bring is a factor in rising temperatures in the region. The winter trend in extreme cyclones is dominated by a positive monthly trend of about 3-4 events/decade in November-December, due mainly to an increasing persistence of extreme cyclone events. A negative trend in January opposes this, while there is no significant trend in February. We relate the regional patterns of the trend in extreme cyclones to anomalously low sea-ice conditions in recent years, together with associated large-scale atmospheric circulation changes such as ‘blockinglike’ circulation patterns (e.g. Scandinavian blocking in December and Ural blocking during January-February).

Arctic sea ice, Eurasia snow, and extreme winter haze in China

PubMed Central

Zou, Yufei; Wang, Yuhang; Zhang, Yuzhong; Koo, Ja-Ho

2017-01-01

The East China Plains (ECP) region experienced the worst haze pollution on record for January in 2013. We show that the unprecedented haze event is due to the extremely poor ventilation conditions, which had not been seen in the preceding three decades. Statistical analysis suggests that the extremely poor ventilation conditions are linked to Arctic sea ice loss in the preceding autumn and extensive boreal snowfall in the earlier winter. We identify the regional circulation mode that leads to extremely poor ventilation over the ECP region. Climate model simulations indicate that boreal cryospheric forcing enhances the regional circulation mode of poor ventilation in the ECP region and provides conducive conditions for extreme haze such as that of 2013. Consequently, extreme haze events in winter will likely occur at a higher frequency in China as a result of the changing boreal cryosphere, posing difficult challenges for winter haze mitigation but providing a strong incentive for greenhouse gas emission reduction. PMID:28345056

Performance Testing of Jefferson Lab 12 GeV Helium Screw Compressors

DOE PAGES

Knudsen, P.; Ganni, V.; Dixon, K.; ...

2015-08-10

Oil injected screw compressors have essentially superseded all other types of compressors in modern helium refrigeration systems due to their large displacement capacity, reliability, minimal vibration, and capability of handling helium's high heat of compression. At the present state of compressor system designs for helium refrigeration systems, typically two-thirds of the lost input power is due to the compression system. It is important to understand the isothermal and volumetric efficiencies of these machines to help properly design the compression system to match the refrigeration process. It is also important to identify those primary compressor skid exergetic loss mechanisms which maymore » be reduced, thereby offering the possibility of significantly reducing the input power to helium refrigeration processes which are extremely energy intensive. This paper summarizes the results collected during the commissioning of the new compressor system for Jefferson Lab's (JLab's) 12 GeV upgrade. The compressor skid packages were designed by JLab and built to print by industry. They incorporate a number of modifications not typical of helium screw compressor packages and most importantly allow a very wide range of operation so that JLab's patented Floating Pressure Process can be fully utilized. This paper also summarizes key features of the skid design that allow this process and facilitate the maintenance and reliability of these helium compressor systems.« less

Performance Testing of Jefferson Lab 12 GeV Helium Screw Compressors

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Knudsen, P.; Ganni, V.; Dixon, K.

Oil injected screw compressors have essentially superseded all other types of compressors in modern helium refrigeration systems due to their large displacement capacity, reliability, minimal vibration, and capability of handling helium's high heat of compression. At the present state of compressor system designs for helium refrigeration systems, typically two-thirds of the lost input power is due to the compression system. It is important to understand the isothermal and volumetric efficiencies of these machines to help properly design the compression system to match the refrigeration process. It is also important to identify those primary compressor skid exergetic loss mechanisms which maymore » be reduced, thereby offering the possibility of significantly reducing the input power to helium refrigeration processes which are extremely energy intensive. This paper summarizes the results collected during the commissioning of the new compressor system for Jefferson Lab's (JLab's) 12 GeV upgrade. The compressor skid packages were designed by JLab and built to print by industry. They incorporate a number of modifications not typical of helium screw compressor packages and most importantly allow a very wide range of operation so that JLab's patented Floating Pressure Process can be fully utilized. This paper also summarizes key features of the skid design that allow this process and facilitate the maintenance and reliability of these helium compressor systems.« less

Quality versus quantity: The complexities of quality of life determinations for neonatal nurses.

PubMed

Green, Janet; Darbyshire, Philip; Adams, Anne; Jackson, Debra

2017-11-01

The ability to save the life of an extremely premature baby has increased substantially over the last decade. This survival, however, can be associated with unfavourable outcomes for both baby and family. Questions are now being asked about quality of life for survivors of extreme prematurity. Quality of life is rightly deemed to be an important consideration in high technology neonatal care; yet, it is notoriously difficult to determine or predict. How does one define and operationalise what is considered to be in the best interest of a surviving extremely premature baby, especially when the full extent of the outcomes might not be known for several years? The research investigates the caregiving dilemmas often faced by neonatal nurses when caring for extremely premature babies. This article explores the issues arising for neonatal nurses when they considered the philosophical and ethical questions about quality of life in babies ≤24 weeks gestation. Data were collected via a questionnaire to Australian neonatal nurses and semi-structured interviews with 24 neonatal nurses in New South Wales, Australia. Ethical considerations: Ethical processes and procedures have been adhered to by the researchers. A qualitative approach was used to analyse the data. The theme 'difficult choices' was generated which comprised three sub-themes: 'damaged through survival', 'the importance of the brain' and 'families are important'. The results show that neonatal nurses believed that quality of life was an important consideration; yet they experienced significant inner conflict and uncertainty when asked to define or suggest specific elements of quality of life, or to suggest how it might be determined. It was even more difficult for the nurses to say when an extremely premature baby's life possessed quality. Their previous clinical and personal experiences led the nurses to believe that the quality of the family's life was important, and possibly more so than the quality of life of the surviving baby. This finding contrasts markedly with much of the existing literature in this field. Quality of life for extremely premature babies was an important consideration for neonatal nurses; however, they experienced difficulty deciding how to operationalise such considerations in their everyday clinical practice.

Quantifying population exposure to airborne particulate matter during extreme events in California due to climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mahmud, A.; Hixson, M.; Kleeman, M. J.

2012-02-01

The effect of climate change on population-weighted concentrations of particulate matter (PM) during extreme events was studied using the Parallel Climate Model (PCM), the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and the UCD/CIT 3-D photochemical air quality model. A "business as usual" (B06.44) global emissions scenario was dynamically downscaled for the entire state of California between the years 2000-2006 and 2047-2053. Air quality simulations were carried out for 1008 days in each of the present-day and future climate conditions using year-2000 emissions. Population-weighted concentrations of PM0.1, PM2.5, and PM10 total mass, components species, and primary source contributions were calculated for California and three air basins: the Sacramento Valley air basin (SV), the San Joaquin Valley air basin (SJV) and the South Coast Air Basin (SoCAB). Results over annual-average periods were contrasted with extreme events. Climate change between 2000 vs. 2050 did not cause a statistically significant change in annual-average population-weighted PM2.5 mass concentrations within any major sub-region of California in the current study. Climate change did alter the annual-average composition of the airborne particles in the SoCAB, with notable reductions of elemental carbon (EC; -3%) and organic carbon (OC; -3%) due to increased annual-average wind speeds that diluted primary concentrations from gasoline combustion (-3%) and food cooking (-4%). In contrast, climate change caused significant increases in population-weighted PM2.5 mass concentrations in central California during extreme events. The maximum 24-h average PM2.5 concentration experienced by an average person during a ten-year period in the SJV increased by 21% due to enhanced production of secondary particulate matter (manifested as NH4NO3). In general, climate change caused increased stagnation during future extreme pollution events, leading to higher exposure to diesel engines particles (+32%) and wood combustion particles (+14%) when averaging across the population of the entire state. Enhanced stagnation also isolated populations from distant sources such as shipping (-61%) during extreme events. The combination of these factors altered the statewide population-averaged composition of particles during extreme events, with EC increasing by 23%, nitrate increasing by 58%, and sulfate decreasing by 46%.

Examining personal values in extreme environment contexts: Revisiting the question of generalizability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, N.; Sandal, G. M.; Leon, G. R.; Kjærgaard, A.

2017-08-01

Land-based extreme environments (e.g. polar expeditions, Antarctic research stations, confinement chambers) have often been used as analog settings for spaceflight. These settings share similarities with the conditions experienced during space missions, including confinement, isolation and limited possibilities for evacuation. To determine the utility of analog settings for understanding human spaceflight, researchers have examined the extent to which the individual characteristics (e.g., personality) of people operating in extreme environments can be generalized across contexts (Sandal, 2000) [1]. Building on previous work, and utilising new and pre-existing data, the present study examined the extent to which personal value motives could be generalized across extreme environments. Four populations were assessed; mountaineers (N =59), military personnel (N = 25), Antarctic over-winterers (N = 21) and Mars simulation participants (N = 12). All participants completed the Portrait Values Questionnaire (PVQ; Schwartz; 2) capturing information on 10 personal values. Rank scores suggest that all groups identified Self-direction, Stimulation, Universalism and Benevolence as important values and acknowledged Power and Tradition as being low priorities. Results from difference testing suggest the extreme environment groups were most comparable on Self-direction, Stimulation, Benevolence, Tradition and Security. There were significant between-group differences on five of the ten values. Overall, findings pinpointed specific values that may be important for functioning in challenging environments. However, the differences that emerged on certain values highlight the importance of considering the specific population when comparing results across extreme settings. We recommend that further research examine the impact of personal value motives on indicators of adjustment, group working, and performance. Information from such studies could then be used to aid selection and training processes for personnel operating in extreme settings, and in space.

[Biomechanical air-vibration stimulation in the medical rehabilitation of patients with chronic venous insufficiency of the lower extremities].

PubMed

Zhukov, B N; Katorkin, S E

1993-01-01

Biomechanical pneumo-vibration stimulation of lower extremities was used in 146 patients with different forms and stages of chronic venous insufficiency of lower extremities during conservative treatment in preoperative preparation and the following early rehabilitation, in 106 patients with consequences of the trauma and diseases of the spinal cord as well as in 35 healthy people. The biomechanical pneumo-vibration stimulation is thought by the authors to be a promising noninvasive conservative method of medical rehabilitation. It can be recommended for clinical use with due regard for contraindications.

Adjusting skewness and maximum 0.5 hour intensity in CLIGEN to improve extreme event and sub-daily intensity generation for assessing climate change impacts

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Both measured data and GCM/RCM projections show an general increasing trend in extreme rainfall events as temperature rises in US. Proper simulation of extreme events is particularly important for assessing climate change impacts on soil erosion and hydrology. The objective of this paper is to fin...

Large-scale drivers of local precipitation extremes in convection-permitting climate simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chan, Steven C.; Kendon, Elizabeth J.; Roberts, Nigel M.; Fowler, Hayley J.; Blenkinsop, Stephen

2016-04-01

The Met Office 1.5-km UKV convective-permitting models (CPM) is used to downscale present-climate and RCP8.5 60-km HadGEM3 GCM simulations. Extreme UK hourly precipitation intensities increase with local near-surface temperatures and humidity; for temperature, the simulated increase rate for the present-climate simulation is about 6.5% K**-1, which is consistent with observations and theoretical expectations. While extreme intensities are higher in the RCP8.5 simulation as higher temperatures are sampled, there is a decline at the highest temperatures due to circulation and relative humidity changes. Extending the analysis to the broader synoptic scale, it is found that circulation patterns, as diagnosed by MSLP or circulation type, play an increased role in the probability of extreme precipitation in the RCP8.5 simulation. Nevertheless for both CPM simulations, vertical instability is the principal driver for extreme precipitation.

[Management of war orthopaedic injuries in recent armed conflicts].

PubMed

Frank, M; Mathieu, L

2013-01-01

The extremities continue to be the most frequent sites of wounding during armed conflicts despite the change of combat tactics, soldier armour and battlefield medical support. Due to the advances in prehospital care and timely transport to the hospital, orthopaedic surgeons deal with severe and challenging injuries of the limbs. In contrast to civilian extremity trauma, the most combat-related injuries are open wounds that often have infection-related complications. Data from two recent large armed conflicts (Iraq, Afghanistan) show that extremity injuries are associated with a high complication rate, morbidity and healthcare utilization. A systematic approach that consists of sequential surgical care and good transport capabilities can reduce the complication rate of these injuries. New medical technologies have been implemented in the treatment strategy during the last decade. This article reviews the published scientific data and current opinions on combat-related extremity injuries. Key words: extremity, combat, trauma, medical support system.

Long-term reactions of plants and macroinvertebrates to extreme floods in floodplain grasslands.

PubMed

Ilg, Christiane; Dziock, Frank; Foeckler, Francis; Follner, Klaus; Gerisch, Michael; Glaeser, Judith; Rink, Anke; Schanowski, Arno; Scholz, Mathias; Deichner, Oskar; Henle, Klaus

2008-09-01

Extreme summertime flood events are expected to become more frequent in European rivers due to climate change. In temperate areas, where winter floods are common, extreme floods occurring in summer, a period of high physiological activity, may seriously impact floodplain ecosystems. Here we report on the effects of the 2002 extreme summer flood on flora and fauna of the riverine grasslands of the Middle Elbe (Germany), comparing pre- and post-flooding data collected by identical methods. Plants, mollusks, and carabid beetles differed considerably in their response in terms of abundance and diversity. Plants and mollusks, displaying morphological and behavioral adaptations to flooding, showed higher survival rates than the carabid beetles, the adaptation strategies of which were mainly linked to life history. Our results illustrate the complexity of responses of floodplain organisms to extreme flood events. They demonstrate that the efficiency of resistance and resilience strategies is widely dependent on the mode of adaptation.

Validation of extremes within the Perfect-Predictor Experiment of the COST Action VALUE

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hertig, Elke; Maraun, Douglas; Wibig, Joanna; Vrac, Mathieu; Soares, Pedro; Bartholy, Judith; Pongracz, Rita; Mares, Ileana; Gutierrez, Jose Manuel; Casanueva, Ana; Alzbutas, Robertas

2016-04-01

Extreme events are of widespread concern due to their damaging consequences on natural and anthropogenic systems. From science to applications the statistical attributes of rare and infrequent occurrence and low probability become connected with the socio-economic aspect of strong impact. Specific end-user needs regarding information about extreme events depend on the type of application, but as a joining element there is always the request for easily accessible climate change information with a clear description of their uncertainties and limitations. Within the Perfect-Predictor Experiment of the COST Action VALUE extreme indices modelled from a wide range of downscaling methods are compared to reference indices calculated from observational data. The experiment uses reference data from a selection of 86 weather stations representative of the different climates in Europe. Results are presented for temperature and precipitation extremes and include aspects of the marginal distribution as well as spell-length related aspects.

Streamflow response to increasing precipitation extremes altered by forest management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kelly, Charlene N.; McGuire, Kevin J.; Miniat, Chelcy Ford; Vose, James M.

2016-04-01

Increases in extreme precipitation events of floods and droughts are expected to occur worldwide. The increase in extreme events will result in changes in streamflow that are expected to affect water availability for human consumption and aquatic ecosystem function. We present an analysis that may greatly improve current streamflow models by quantifying the impact of the interaction between forest management and precipitation. We use daily long-term data from paired watersheds that have undergone forest harvest or species conversion. We find that interactive effects of climate change, represented by changes in observed precipitation trends, and forest management regime, significantly alter expected streamflow most often during extreme events, ranging from a decrease of 59% to an increase of 40% in streamflow, depending upon management. Our results suggest that vegetation might be managed to compensate for hydrologic responses due to climate change to help mitigate effects of extreme changes in precipitation.

The impacts of climate change on the risk of natural disasters.

PubMed

van Aalst, Maarten K

2006-03-01

Human emissions of greenhouse gases are already changing our climate. This paper provides an overview of the relation between climate change and weather extremes, and examines three specific cases where recent acute events have stimulated debate on the potential role of climate change: the European heatwave of 2003; the risk of inland flooding, such as recently in Central Europe and Great Britain; and the harsh Atlantic hurricane seasons of 2004 and 2005. Furthermore, it briefly assesses the relation between climate change and El Niño, and the potential of abrupt climate change. Several trends in weather extremes are sufficiently clear to inform risk reduction efforts. In many instances, however, the potential increases in extreme events due to climate change come on top of alarming rises in vulnerability. Hence, the additional risks due to climate change should not be analysed or treated in isolation, but instead integrated into broader efforts to reduce the risk of natural disasters.

Wave climate and trends along the eastern Chukchi Arctic Alaska coast

USGS Publications Warehouse

Erikson, L.H.; Storlazzi, C.D.; Jensen, R.E.

2011-01-01

Due in large part to the difficulty of obtaining measurements in the Arctic, little is known about the wave climate along the coast of Arctic Alaska. In this study, numerical model simulations encompassing 40 years of wave hind-casts were used to assess mean and extreme wave conditions. Results indicate that the wave climate was strongly modulated by large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns and that mean and extreme wave heights and periods exhibited increasing trends in both the sea and swell frequency bands over the time-period studied (1954-2004). Model simulations also indicate that the upward trend was not due to a decrease in the minimum icepack extent. ?? 2011 ASCE.

Multifunctional transparent ZnO nanorod films.

PubMed

Kwak, Geunjae; Jung, Sungmook; Yong, Kijung

2011-03-18

Transparent ZnO nanorod (NR) films that exhibit extreme wetting states (either superhydrophilicity or superhydrophobicity through surface chemical modification), high transmittance, UV protection and antireflection have been prepared via the facile ammonia hydrothermal method. The periodic 1D ZnO NR arrays showed extreme wetting states as well as antireflection properties due to their unique surface structure and prevented the UVA region from penetrating the substrate due to the unique material property of ZnO. Because of the simple, time-efficient and low temperature preparation process, ZnO NR films with useful functionalities are promising for fabrication of highly light transmissive, antireflective, UV protective, antifogging and self-cleaning optical materials to be used for optical devices and photovoltaic energy devices.

Weak linkage between the heaviest rainfall and tallest storms.

PubMed

Hamada, Atsushi; Takayabu, Yukari N; Liu, Chuntao; Zipser, Edward J

2015-02-24

Conventionally, the heaviest rainfall has been linked to the tallest, most intense convective storms. However, the global picture of the linkage between extreme rainfall and convection remains unclear. Here we analyse an 11-year record of spaceborne precipitation radar observations and establish that a relatively small fraction of extreme convective events produces extreme rainfall rates in any region of the tropics and subtropics. Robust differences between extreme rainfall and convective events are found in the rainfall characteristics and environmental conditions, irrespective of region; most extreme rainfall events are characterized by less intense convection with intense radar echoes not extending to extremely high altitudes. Rainfall characteristics and environmental conditions both indicate the importance of warm-rain processes in producing extreme rainfall rates. Our results demonstrate that, even in regions where severe convective storms are representative extreme weather events, the heaviest rainfall events are mostly associated with less intense convection.

Quantifying the daily economic impact of extreme space weather due to failure in electricity transmission infrastructure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oughton, Edward J.; Skelton, Andrew; Horne, Richard B.; Thomson, Alan W. P.; Gaunt, Charles T.

2017-01-01

Extreme space weather due to coronal mass ejections has the potential to cause considerable disruption to the global economy by damaging the transformers required to operate electricity transmission infrastructure. However, expert opinion is split between the potential outcome being one of a temporary regional blackout and of a more prolonged event. The temporary blackout scenario proposed by some is expected to last the length of the disturbance, with normal operations resuming after a couple of days. On the other hand, others have predicted widespread equipment damage with blackout scenarios lasting months. In this paper we explore the potential costs associated with failure in the electricity transmission infrastructure in the U.S. due to extreme space weather, focusing on daily economic loss. This provides insight into the direct and indirect economic consequences of how an extreme space weather event may affect domestic production, as well as other nations, via supply chain linkages. By exploring the sensitivity of the blackout zone, we show that on average the direct economic cost incurred from disruption to electricity represents only 49% of the total potential macroeconomic cost. Therefore, if indirect supply chain costs are not considered when undertaking cost-benefit analysis of space weather forecasting and mitigation investment, the total potential macroeconomic cost is not correctly represented. The paper contributes to our understanding of the economic impact of space weather, as well as making a number of key methodological contributions relevant for future work. Further economic impact assessment of this threat must consider multiday, multiregional events.

Uncertainty in projected point precipitation extremes for hydrological impact analysis of climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Van Uytven, Els; Willems, Patrick

2017-04-01

Current trends in the hydro-meteorological variables indicate the potential impact of climate change on hydrological extremes. Therefore, they trigger an increased importance climate adaptation strategies in water management. The impact of climate change on hydro-meteorological and hydrological extremes is, however, highly uncertain. This is due to uncertainties introduced by the climate models, the internal variability inherent to the climate system, the greenhouse gas scenarios and the statistical downscaling methods. In view of the need to define sustainable climate adaptation strategies, there is a need to assess these uncertainties. This is commonly done by means of ensemble approaches. Because more and more climate models and statistical downscaling methods become available, there is a need to facilitate the climate impact and uncertainty analysis. A Climate Perturbation Tool has been developed for that purpose, which combines a set of statistical downscaling methods including weather typing, weather generator, transfer function and advanced perturbation based approaches. By use of an interactive interface, climate impact modelers can apply these statistical downscaling methods in a semi-automatic way to an ensemble of climate model runs. The tool is applicable to any region, but has been demonstrated so far to cases in Belgium, Suriname, Vietnam and Bangladesh. Time series representing future local-scale precipitation, temperature and potential evapotranspiration (PET) conditions were obtained, starting from time series of historical observations. Uncertainties on the future meteorological conditions are represented in two different ways: through an ensemble of time series, and a reduced set of synthetic scenarios. The both aim to span the full uncertainty range as assessed from the ensemble of climate model runs and downscaling methods. For Belgium, for instance, use was made of 100-year time series of 10-minutes precipitation observations and daily temperature and PET observations at Uccle and a large ensemble of 160 global climate model runs (CMIP5). They cover all four representative concentration pathway based greenhouse gas scenarios. While evaluating the downscaled meteorological series, particular attention was given to the performance of extreme value metrics (e.g. for precipitation, by means of intensity-duration-frequency statistics). Moreover, the total uncertainty was decomposed in the fractional uncertainties for each of the uncertainty sources considered. Research assessing the additional uncertainty due to parameter and structural uncertainties of the hydrological impact model is ongoing.

The Youth Throwing Score: Validating Injury Assessment in Young Baseball Players.

PubMed

Ahmad, Christopher S; Padaki, Ajay S; Noticewala, Manish S; Makhni, Eric C; Popkin, Charles A

2017-02-01

Epidemic levels of shoulder and elbow injuries have been reported recently in youth and adolescent baseball players. Despite the concerning frequency of these injuries, no instrument has been validated to assess upper extremity injury in this patient population. Purpose/Hypothesis: The purpose of this study was to validate an upper extremity assessment tool specifically designed for young baseball players. We hypothesized that this tool will be both reliable and valid. Cohort study (diagnosis); Level of evidence, 2. The Youth Throwing Score (YTS) was constructed by an interdisciplinary team of providers and coaches as a tool to assess upper extremity injury in youth and adolescent baseball players (age range, 10-18 years). The psychometric properties of the test were then determined. A total of 223 players completed the final survey. The players' mean age was 14.3 ± 2.7 years. Pilot analysis showed that none of the 14 questions received a mean athlete importance rating less than 3 of 5, and the final survey read at a Flesch-Kincaid level of 4.1, which is appropriate for patients aged 9 years and older. The players self-assigned their injury status, resulting in a mean instrument score of 59.7 ± 8.4 for the 148 players "playing without pain," 42.0 ± 11.5 for the 60 players "playing with pain," and 40.4 ± 10.5 for the 15 players "not playing due to pain." Players playing without pain scored significantly higher than those playing with pain and those not playing due to pain ( P < .001). Psychometric analysis showed a test-retest intraclass correlation coefficient of 0.90 and a Cronbach alpha intra-item reliability coefficient of 0.93, indicating excellent reliability and internal consistency. Pearson correlation coefficients of 0.65, 0.62, and 0.31 were calculated between the YTS and the Pediatric Outcomes Data Collection Instrument sports/physical functioning module, the Kerlan-Jobe Orthopaedic Clinic Shoulder and Elbow score, and the Quick Disabilities of the Arm, Shoulder, and Hand (QuickDASH) score, respectively. Injured players scored a mean of 9.4 points higher after treatment ( P < .001), and players who improved in their self-assigned pain categorization scored 16.5 points higher ( P < .001). The YTS is the first valid and reliable instrument for assessing young baseball players' upper extremity health.

Response and Resiliency of Wildlife and Vegetation to Large-Scale Wildfires and Climate Change in the North Cascades

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bartowitz, K.; Morrison, P.; Romain-Bondi, K.; Smith, C. W.; Warne, L.; McGill, D.

2016-12-01

Changing climatic patterns have affected the western US in a variety of ways: decreases in precipitation and snowpack, earlier spring snowmelt, and increased lightning strikes have created a drier, more fire-prone system, despite variability in these characteristics. Wildfires are a natural phenomenon, but have been suppressed for much of the past century. Effects of this evolving fire regime on native vegetation and wildlife are not well understood. Increased frequency and intensity of fires coupled with subsequent drought and extreme heat may inhibit or alter recovery of native ecosystems. We are currently investigating how a mega-fire has affected presence of western gray squirrels (Sciurus griseus, WGS) in the North Cascades, and the mortality, survival, and recovery of vegetation following these fires and extreme drought. The Methow Valley in WA experienced a record-breaking wildfire in 2014, which disturbed nearly 50% of priority habitat of the North Cascades population of WGS. WGS were studied at the same pre and post-fire plots. WGS were present at over half of the post-burn plots (58%). There was a significant difference in the number of WGS hair samples collected in different levels of remaining vegetation: the most in moderate, few in low, and none in high. Vegetation recovery was assessed through field data, and a chronosequence of satellite images and aerial photography. 75% of the 2014 fire burned non-forested vegetation. Ponderosa pine forests comprised the rest. The forests experienced about 70% initial mortality. Recovery of the forest appears slower than in the shrub-steppe. First year seedling survival was poor due to an extremely hot, dry summer, while second year survival appears higher due to a cool, moist spring and summer. One year after a large, multi-severity fire we found WGS may be more resilient to disturbance such as fires than previously thought. Future studies of WGS will help elucidate long-term response to large-scale fires, and aid in management of the state-threatened species. The combination of severe fire and extreme heat/drought may result in shifts from shrub-steppe to grass/forb communities, as well as range contraction of ponderosa pine forests. The study reveals the importance of subsequent climatic conditions on vegetation recovery after a fire.

Combined impacts of current and future dust deposition and regional warming on Colorado River Basin snow dynamics and hydrology

USGS Publications Warehouse

Deems, Jeffrey S.; Painter, Thomas H.; Barsugli, Joseph J.; Belnap, Jayne; Udall, Bradley

2013-01-01

The Colorado River provides water to 40 million people in seven western states and two countries and to 5.5 million irrigated acres. The river has long been overallocated. Climate models project runoff losses of 5–20% from the basin by mid-21st century due to human-induced climate change. Recent work has shown that decreased snow albedo from anthropogenic dust loading to the CO mountains shortens the duration of snow cover by several weeks relative to conditions prior to western expansion of the US in the mid-1800s, and advances peak runoff at Lees Ferry, Arizona, by an average of 3 weeks. Increases in evapotranspiration from earlier exposure of soils and germination of plants have been estimated to decrease annual runoff by more than 1.0 billion cubic meters, or ~5% of the annual average. This prior work was based on observed dust loadings during 2005–2008; however, 2009 and 2010 saw unprecedented levels of dust loading on snowpacks in the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB), being on the order of 5 times the 2005–2008 loading. Building on our prior work, we developed a new snow albedo decay parameterization based on observations in 2009/10 to mimic the radiative forcing of extreme dust deposition. We convolve low, moderate, and extreme dust/snow albedos with both historic climate forcing and two future climate scenarios via a delta method perturbation of historic records. Compared to moderate dust, extreme dust absorbs 2× to 4× the solar radiation, and shifts peak snowmelt an additional 3 weeks earlier to a total of 6 weeks earlier than pre-disturbance. The extreme dust scenario reduces annual flow volume an additional 1% (6% compared to pre-disturbance), a smaller difference than from low to moderate dust scenarios due to melt season shifting into a season of lower evaporative demand. The sensitivity of flow timing to dust radiative forcing of snow albedo is maintained under future climate scenarios, but the sensitivity of flow volume reductions decreases with increased climate forcing. These results have implications for water management and suggest that dust abatement efforts could be an important component of any climate adaptation strategies in the UCRB.

Extreme Temperature Operation of a 10 MHz Silicon Oscillator Type STCL1100

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Patterson, Richard L.; Hammoud, Ahmad

2008-01-01

The performance of STMicroelectronics 10 MHz silicon oscillator was evaluated under exposure to extreme temperatures. The oscillator was characterized in terms of its output frequency stability, output signal rise and fall times, duty cycle, and supply current. The effects of thermal cycling and re-start capability at extreme low and high temperatures were also investigated. The silicon oscillator chip operated well with good stability in its output frequency over the temperature region of -50 C to +130 C, a range that by far exceeded its recommended specified boundaries of -20 C to +85 C. In addition, this chip, which is a low-cost oscillator designed for use in applications where great accuracy is not required, continued to function at cryogenic temperatures as low as - 195 C but at the expense of drop in its output frequency. The STCL1100 silicon oscillator was also able to re-start at both -195 C and +130 C, and it exhibited no change in performance due to the thermal cycling. In addition, no physical damage was observed in the packaging material due to extreme temperature exposure and thermal cycling. Therefore, it can be concluded that this device could potentially be used in space exploration missions under extreme temperature conditions in microprocessor and other applications where tight clock accuracy is not critical. In addition to the aforementioned screening evaluation, additional testing, however, is required to fully establish the reliability of these devices and to determine their suitability for long-term use.

Core stability: implications for dance injuries.

PubMed

Rickman, Ashley M; Ambegaonkar, Jatin P; Cortes, Nelson

2012-09-01

Dancers experience a high incidence of injury due to the extreme physical demands of dancing. The majority of dance injuries are chronic in nature and occur in the lower extremities and low back. Researchers have indicated decreased core stability (CS) as a risk factor for these injuries. Although decreased CS is suggested to negatively affect lower extremity joint motion and lumbar control during activity, this relationship has not been extensively discussed in previous dance literature. Understanding the relationship between CS and injury risk is important to help reduce dance injury incidence and improve performance. The purposes of this review were to discuss: 1. the core and components of CS, 2. the relationship between CS and injury, 3. CS assessment techniques, and 4. future dance CS research areas. CS is the integration of passive (non-contractile), active (contractile), and neural structures to minimize the effects of external forces and maintain stability. CS is maintained by a combination of muscle power, strength, endurance, and sensory-motor control of the lumbopelvic-hip complex. CS assessments include measuring muscle strength and power using maximal voluntary isometric and isokinetic contractions and measuring endurance using the Biering-Sorensen, plank, and lateral plank tests. Measuring sensory-motor control requires specialized equipment (e.g., balance platforms). Overall, limited research has comprehensively examined all components of CS together and their relationships to injury. Rather, previous researchers have separately examined core power, strength, endurance, or sensory-motor control. Future researchers should explore the multifactorial role of CS in reducing injury risk and enhancing performance in dancers.

[Severe injuries from falls on the same level].

PubMed

Parreira, José Gustavo; Vianna, André Mazzini Ferreira; Cardoso, Gabriel Silva; Karakhanian, Walter Zavem; Calil, Daniela; Perlingeiro, Jaqueline A Giannini; Soldá, Silvia C; Assef, José Cesar

2010-01-01

Assess characteristics of trauma patients who sustained falls from their own height, more specifically focusing on presence of severe injuries, diagnosis and treatment. Retrospective study including all adult blunt trauma patients admitted in the emergency room in a period of 9 months. Lesions with AIS (Abbreviated Injury Scale)>3 were considered "severe". Variables were compared between victims of fall from their own height (group I) and other blunt trauma mechanisms (group II). Student's t, chi square and Fisher exact tests were used for statistical analysis, considering p<0.05 as significant. Of the 1993 trauma patients included, 305 (15%) were victims of falls from their own height. In group I, mean age was 52.2 ± 20.8 years and 64.8% were male. Injuries in the head segment were the most frequently observed (62.2%), followed by injuries in the extremities (22.3%), thorax (1.3%) and abdomen (0.7%). Severe injuries (AIS>3) were more frequent in the head (8.9%), followed by extremities (4.9%). In group I, craniotomies were needed in 2.3%. By comparing groups, we observed that victims of falls from their own height had significantly higher mean age, higher mean systolic blood pressure, and higher head AIS mean, as well as lower ISS mean, thorax AIS mean, abdomen AIS mean and extremities AIS mean. Importance of the trauma mechanism in victims of falls from own height should be emphasized due to a considerable possibility of occult severe injuries, mainly in the cephalic segment.

Controlling extreme events on complex networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Yu-Zhong; Huang, Zi-Gang; Lai, Ying-Cheng

2014-08-01

Extreme events, a type of collective behavior in complex networked dynamical systems, often can have catastrophic consequences. To develop effective strategies to control extreme events is of fundamental importance and practical interest. Utilizing transportation dynamics on complex networks as a prototypical setting, we find that making the network ``mobile'' can effectively suppress extreme events. A striking, resonance-like phenomenon is uncovered, where an optimal degree of mobility exists for which the probability of extreme events is minimized. We derive an analytic theory to understand the mechanism of control at a detailed and quantitative level, and validate the theory numerically. Implications of our finding to current areas such as cybersecurity are discussed.

Low-temperature 1H NMR spectroscopic study of hydration properties of a hybrid system based on nanosilica, DNA and doxorubicin in the presence of C60 fullerene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Turov, V. V.; Prylutskyy, Yu. I.; Ugnivenko, A. P.; Barvinchenko, V. N.; Krupskaya, T. V.; Tsierkezos, N. G.; Ritter, U.

2014-03-01

The structure of hydrate cover layers of SiO2-DNA-Dox (where Dox: doxorubicin) and SiO2-DNA-Dox-C60 fullerene hybrids was studied by means of low-temperature 1H NMR spectroscopy in tetrachloromethane. The hydration properties of SiO2-DNA-Dox nanomaterials combined with fullerenes and their derivatives are extremely important for their further use as therapeutics in cancer treatment and for safety reasons. The findings reveal that the hydration properties of the hybrids differ from those of the solid DNA particulates or SiO2-DNA systems due to the existence of different types of water clusters, namely the weakly (WAW) and strongly associated water (SAW) clusters. For SAW clusters the radial distributions as well as the distributions of change in Gibbs free energy due to adsorptive interactions at the surfaces of the investigated systems were obtained.

Bacillus "next generation" diagnostics: moving from detection toward subtyping and risk-related strain profiling.

PubMed

Ehling-Schulz, Monika; Messelhäusser, Ute

2013-01-01

The highly heterogeneous genus Bacillus comprises the largest species group of endospore forming bacteria. Because of their ubiquitous nature, Bacillus spores can enter food production at several stages resulting in significant economic losses and posing a potential risk to consumers due the capacity of certain Bacillus strains for toxin production. In the past, food microbiological diagnostics was focused on the determination of species using conventional culture-based methods, which are still widely used. However, due to the extreme intra-species diversity found in the genus Bacillus, DNA-based identification and typing methods are gaining increasing importance in routine diagnostics. Several studies showed that certain characteristics are rather strain-dependent than species-specific. Therefore, the challenge for current and future Bacillus diagnostics is not only the efficient and accurate identification on species level but also the development of rapid methods to identify strains with specific characteristics (such as stress resistance or spoilage potential), trace contamination sources, and last but not least discriminate potential hazardous strains from non-toxic strains.

Active disturbance rejection controller for chemical reactor

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Both, Roxana; Dulf, Eva H.; Muresan, Cristina I., E-mail: roxana.both@aut.utcluj.ro

2015-03-10

In the petrochemical industry, the synthesis of 2 ethyl-hexanol-oxo-alcohols (plasticizers alcohol) is of high importance, being achieved through hydrogenation of 2 ethyl-hexenal inside catalytic trickle bed three-phase reactors. For this type of processes the use of advanced control strategies is suitable due to their nonlinear behavior and extreme sensitivity to load changes and other disturbances. Due to the complexity of the mathematical model an approach was to use a simple linear model of the process in combination with an advanced control algorithm which takes into account the model uncertainties, the disturbances and command signal limitations like robust control. However themore » resulting controller is complex, involving cost effective hardware. This paper proposes a simple integer-order control scheme using a linear model of the process, based on active disturbance rejection method. By treating the model dynamics as a common disturbance and actively rejecting it, active disturbance rejection control (ADRC) can achieve the desired response. Simulation results are provided to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.« less

The Importance of Visit Notes on Patient Portals for Engaging Less Educated or Nonwhite Patients: Survey Study

PubMed Central

Gerard, Macda; Chimowitz, Hannah; Fossa, Alan; Bourgeois, Fabienne; Fernandez, Leonor

2018-01-01

Background OpenNotes, a national initiative to share clinicians’ visit notes with patients, can improve patient engagement, but effects on vulnerable populations are not known very well. Objective Our aim is to examine the importance of visit notes to nonwhite and less educated patients. Methods Patients at an urban academic medical center with an active patient portal account and ≥1 available ambulatory visit note over the prior year were surveyed during June 2016 until September 2016. The survey was designed with patients and families and assessed importance of reading notes (scale 0-10) for (1) understanding health conditions, (2) feeling informed about care, (3) understanding the provider’s thought process, (4) remembering the plan of care, and (5) making decisions about care. We compared the proportion of patients reporting 9-10 (extremely important) for each item stratified by education level, race/ethnicity, and self-reported health. Principal component analysis and correlation measures supported a summary score for the 5 items (Cronbach alpha=.93). We examined factors associated with rating notes as extremely important to engage in care using logistic regression. Results Of 24,722 patients, 6913 (27.96%) completed the survey. The majority (6736/6913, 97.44%) read at least one note. Among note readers, 74.0% (727/982) of patients with ≤high school education, 70.7% (130/184) of black patients, and 69.9% (153/219) of Hispanic/Latino patients reported that notes are extremely important to feel informed about their care. The majority of less educated and nonwhite patients reported notes as extremely important to remember the care plan (62.4%, 613/982 ≤high school education; 62.0%, 114/184 black patients; and 61.6%, 135/219 Hispanic/Latino patients) and to make care decisions (62.3%, 612/982; 59.8%, 110/184; and 58.5%, 128/219, respectively, and P<.003 for all comparisons to more educated and white patients, respectively). Among patients with the poorest self-reported health, 65.9% (499/757) found notes extremely important to be informed and to understand the provider. On multivariable modeling, less educated patients were nearly three times as likely to report notes were extremely important to engage in care compared with the most educated patients (odds ratio [OR] 2.9, 95% CI 2.4-3.3). Nonwhite patients were twice as likely to report the same compared with white patients (OR 2.0, 95% CI 1.5-2.7 [black] and OR 2.2, 95% CI 1.6-2.9 [Hispanic/Latino and Asian], P<.001 for each comparison). Healthier patients, women, older patients, and those who read more notes were more likely to find notes extremely important to engage in care. Conclusions Less educated and nonwhite patients using the portal each assigned higher importance to reading notes for several health behaviors than highly educated and white patients, and may find transparent notes especially valuable for understanding their health and engaging in their care. Facilitating access to notes may improve engagement in health care for some vulnerable populations who have historically been more challenging to reach. PMID:29793900

A daily wetness index from satellite gravity for near-real time global monitoring of hydrological extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gouweleeuw, Ben; Kvas, Andreas; Gruber, Christian; Mayer-Gürr, Torsten; Flechtner, Frank; Hasan, Mehedi; Güntner, Andreas

2017-04-01

Since April 2002, the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite mission has been churning out water storage anomaly data, which has been shown to be a unique descriptor of large-scale hydrological extreme events. Nonetheless, efforts to assess the comprehensive information from GRACE on total water storage variations for near-real time flood or drought monitoring have been limited so far, primarily due to its coarse temporal (weekly to monthly) and spatial (> 150.000 km2) resolution and the latency of standard products of about 2 months,. Pending the status of the aging GRACE satellite mission, the Horizon 2020 funded EGSIEM (European Gravity Service for Improved Emergency Management) project is scheduled to launch a 6 month duration near-real time test run of GRACE gravity field data from April 2017 onward, which will provide daily gridded data with a latency of 5 days. This fast availability allows the monitoring of total water storage variations related to hydrological extreme events, as they occur, as opposed to a 'confirmation after occurrence', which is the current situation. This contribution proposes a global GRACE-derived gridded wetness indicator, expressed as a gravity anomaly in dimensionless units of standard deviation. Results of a retrospective evaluation (April 2002-December 2015) of the proposed index against databases of hydrological extremes will be presented. It is shown that signals for large extreme floods related to heavy/monsoonal rainfall are picked up really well in the Southern Hemisphere and lower Northern Hemisphere (Africa, S-America, Australia, S-Asia), while extreme floods in the Northern Hemisphere (Russia) related to snow melt are often not. The latter is possibly related to a lack of mass movement over longer distances, e.g. when melt water is not drained due to river ice blocking.

Heterogeneous Sensitivity of Tropical Precipitation Extremes during Growth and Mature Phases of Atmospheric Warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parhi, P.; Giannini, A.; Lall, U.; Gentine, P.

2016-12-01

Assessing and managing risks posed by climate variability and change is challenging in the tropics, from both a socio-economic and a scientific perspective. Most of the vulnerable countries with a limited climate adaptation capability are in the tropics. However, climate projections, particularly of extreme precipitation, are highly uncertain there. The CMIP5 (Coupled Model Inter- comparison Project - Phase 5) inter-model range of extreme precipitation sensitivity to the global temperature under climate change is much larger in the tropics as compared to the extra-tropics. It ranges from nearly 0% to greater than 30% across models (O'Gorman 2012). The uncertainty is also large in historical gauge or satellite based observational records. These large uncertainties in the sensitivity of tropical precipitation extremes highlight the need to better understand how tropical precipitation extremes respond to warming. We hypothesize that one of the factors explaining the large uncertainty is due to differing sensitivities during different phases of warming. We consider the `growth' and `mature' phases of warming under climate variability case- typically associated with an El Niño event. In the remote tropics (away from tropical Pacific Ocean), the response of the precipitation extremes during the two phases can be through different pathways: i) a direct and fast changing radiative forcing in an atmospheric column, acting top-down due to the tropospheric warming, and/or ii) an indirect effect via changes in surface temperatures, acting bottom-up through surface water and energy fluxes. We also speculate that the insights gained here might be useful in interpreting the large sensitivity under climate change scenarios, since the physical mechanisms during the two warming phases under climate variability case, have some correspondence with an increasing and stabilized green house gas emission scenarios.

An Independent Assessment of Anthropogenic Attribution Statements for Recent Extreme Temperature and Rainfall Events

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Angélil, Oliver; Stone, Dáithí; Wehner, Michael

The annual "State of the Climate" report, published in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (BAMS), has included a supplement since 2011 composed of brief analyses of the human influence on recent major extreme weather events. There are now several dozen extreme weather events examined in these supplements, but these studies have all differed in their data sources as well as their approaches to defining the events, analyzing the events, and the consideration of the role of anthropogenic emissions. This study reexamines most of these events using a single analytical approach and a single set of climate model andmore » observational data sources. In response to recent studies recommending the importance of using multiple methods for extreme weather event attribution, results are compared from these analyses to those reported in the BAMS supplements collectively, with the aim of characterizing the degree to which the lack of a common methodological framework may or may not influence overall conclusions. Results are broadly similar to those reported earlier for extreme temperature events but disagree for a number of extreme precipitation events. Based on this, it is advised that the lack of comprehensive uncertainty analysis in recent extreme weather attribution studies is important and should be considered when interpreting results, but as yet it has not introduced a systematic bias across these studies.« less

An Independent Assessment of Anthropogenic Attribution Statements for Recent Extreme Temperature and Rainfall Events

DOE PAGES

Angélil, Oliver; Stone, Dáithí; Wehner, Michael; ...

2016-12-16

The annual "State of the Climate" report, published in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (BAMS), has included a supplement since 2011 composed of brief analyses of the human influence on recent major extreme weather events. There are now several dozen extreme weather events examined in these supplements, but these studies have all differed in their data sources as well as their approaches to defining the events, analyzing the events, and the consideration of the role of anthropogenic emissions. This study reexamines most of these events using a single analytical approach and a single set of climate model andmore » observational data sources. In response to recent studies recommending the importance of using multiple methods for extreme weather event attribution, results are compared from these analyses to those reported in the BAMS supplements collectively, with the aim of characterizing the degree to which the lack of a common methodological framework may or may not influence overall conclusions. Results are broadly similar to those reported earlier for extreme temperature events but disagree for a number of extreme precipitation events. Based on this, it is advised that the lack of comprehensive uncertainty analysis in recent extreme weather attribution studies is important and should be considered when interpreting results, but as yet it has not introduced a systematic bias across these studies.« less

Extreme weather caused by concurrent cyclone, front and thunderstorm occurrences

PubMed Central

Dowdy, Andrew J.; Catto, Jennifer L.

2017-01-01

Phenomena such as cyclones, fronts and thunderstorms can cause extreme weather in various regions throughout the world. Although these phenomena have been examined in numerous studies, they have not all been systematically examined in combination with each other, including in relation to extreme precipitation and extreme winds throughout the world. Consequently, the combined influence of these phenomena represents a substantial gap in the current understanding of the causes of extreme weather events. Here we present a systematic analysis of cyclones, fronts and thunderstorms in combination with each other, as represented by seven different types of storm combinations. Our results highlight the storm combinations that most frequently cause extreme weather in various regions of the world. The highest risk of extreme precipitation and extreme wind speeds is found to be associated with a triple storm type characterized by concurrent cyclone, front and thunderstorm occurrences. Our findings reveal new insight on the relationships between cyclones, fronts and thunderstorms and clearly demonstrate the importance of concurrent phenomena in causing extreme weather. PMID:28074909

Impacts of extreme weather events on transport infrastructure in Norway

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frauenfelder, Regula; Solheim, Anders; Isaksen, Ketil; Romstad, Bård; Dyrrdal, Anita V.; Ekseth, Kristine H. H.; Gangstø Skaland, Reidun; Harbitz, Alf; Harbitz, Carl B.; Haugen, Jan E.; Hygen, Hans O.; Haakenstad, Hilde; Jaedicke, Christian; Jónsson, Árni; Klæboe, Ronny; Ludvigsen, Johanna; Meyer, Nele K.; Rauken, Trude; Sverdrup-Thygeson, Kjetil

2016-04-01

With the latest results on expected future increase in air temperature and precipitation changes reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the climate robustness of important infrastructure is of raising concern in Norway, as well as in the rest of Europe. Economic consequences of natural disasters have increased considerably since 1950. In addition to the effect of demographic changes such as population growth, urbanization and more and more concentration of valuable assets, this increase is also related to an augmenting frequency of extreme events, such as storms, flooding, drought, and landslides. This change is also observable in Norway, where the increased frequency of strong precipitation has led to frequent flooding and landslide events during the last 20 years. A number of studies show that climate change causes an increase in both frequency and intensity of several types of extreme weather, especially when it comes to precipitation. Such extreme weather events greatly affect the transport infrastructure, with numerous and long closures of roads and railroads, in addition to damage and repair costs. Frequent closures of railroad and roads lead to delay or failure in delivery of goods, which again may lead to a loss of customers and/or - eventually - markets. Much of the Norwegian transport infrastructure is more than 50 years old and therefore not adequately dimensioned, even for present climatic conditions. In order to assess these problems and challenges posed to the Norwegian transport infrastructure from present-day and future extreme weather events, the project "Impacts of extreme weather events on infrastructure in Norway (InfraRisk)" was performed under the research Council of Norway program 'NORKLIMA', between 2009 and 2013. The main results of the project are: - Moderate to strong precipitation events have become more frequent and more intense in Norway over the last 50 years, and this trend continues throughout the 21st century. The increase, both in total precipitation, and in the frequency and intensity of extreme events, is greatest in the west and southwest, and in parts of northern Norway, areas with the highest present precipitation. - Snowfall will increase due to increased precipitation in cold areas inland and at high elevations. In lower lying parts of the country, and along the coast, more precipitation as rain will replace snowfall. - The frequency of near-zero events, with freeze-thaw cycles, which can trigger rock falls, will decrease due to the generally increased temperatures. - The greatest uncertainties in the weather trends are linked to uncertainties in climate and emission scenarios, and to the downscaling. - More than 30% of the total length of road and railroads in Norway is exposed to snow avalanche and rock fall/slide hazard. As an example, one of the most exposed railroads, Raumabanen, has an annual probability of 1/3 to be hit by snow avalanches. - Total costs of geohazard impact on the road infrastructure (major roads only) were estimated to be roughly 100 mill. NOK per year, of which the costs of road closures comprise 70%. The numbers are unevenly distributed throughout the country, reflecting the topographic and climatic variability in Norway.

Human impact parameterization in global hydrological models improves estimates of monthly discharges and hydrological extremes: a multi-model validation study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Veldkamp, Ted; Ward, Philip; de Moel, Hans; Aerts, Jeroen; Muller Schmied, Hannes; Portmann, Felix; Zhao, Fang; Gerten, Dieter; Masaki, Yoshimitsu; Pokhrel, Yadu; Satoh, Yusuke; Gosling, Simon; Zaherpour, Jamal; Wada, Yoshihide

2017-04-01

Human impacts on freshwater resources and hydrological features form the core of present-day water related hazards, like flooding, droughts, water scarcity, and water quality issues. Driven by the societal and scientific needs to correctly model such water related hazards a fair amount of resources has been invested over the past decades to represent human activities and their interactions with the hydrological cycle in global hydrological models (GHMs). Use of these GHMs - including the human dimension - is widespread, especially in water resources research. Evaluation or comparative assessments of the ability of such GHMs to represent real-world hydrological conditions are, unfortunately, however often limited to (near-)natural river basins. Such studies are, therefore, not able to test the model representation of human activities and its associated impact on estimates of freshwater resources or assessments of hydrological extremes. Studies that did perform a validation exercise - including the human dimension and looking into managed catchments - either focused only on one hydrological model, and/or incorporated only a few data points (i.e. river basins) for validation. To date, a comprehensive comparative analysis that evaluates whether and where incorporating the human dimension actually improves the performance of different GHMs with respect to their representation of real-world hydrological conditions and extremes is missing. The absence of such study limits the potential benchmarking of GHMs and their outcomes in hydrological hazard and risk assessments significantly, potentially hampering incorporation of GHMs and their modelling results in actual policy making and decision support with respect to water resources management. To address this issue, we evaluate in this study the performance of five state-of-the-art GHMs that include anthropogenic activities in their modelling scheme, with respect to their representation of monthly discharges and hydrological extremes. To this end, we compared their monthly discharge simulations under a naturalized and a time-dependent human impact simulation, with monthly GRDC river discharge observations of 2,412 stations over the period 1971-2010. Evaluation metrics that were used to assess the performance of the GHMs included the modified Kling-Gupta Efficiency index, and its individual parameters describing the linear correlation coefficient, the bias ratio, and the variability ratio, as well as indicators for hydrological extremes (Q90, Q10). Our results show that inclusion of anthropogenic activities in the modelling framework generally enhances the overall performance of the GHMs studied, mainly driven by bias-improvements, and to a lesser extent due to changes in modelled hydrological variability. Whilst the inclusion of anthropogenic activities takes mainly effect in the managed catchments, a significant share of the (near-)natural catchments is influenced as well. To get estimates of hydrological extremes right, especially when looking at low-flows, inclusion of human activities is paramount. Whilst high-flow estimates are mainly decreased, impact of human activities on low-flows is ambiguous, i.e. due to the relative importance of the timing of return flows and reservoir operations. Even with inclusion of the human dimension we find, nevertheless, a persistent overestimation of hydrological extremes across all models, which should be accounted for in future assessments.

Spatial Interpolation of Historical Seasonal Rainfall Indices over Peninsular Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hassan, Zulkarnain; Haidir, Ahmad; Saad, Farah Naemah Mohd; Ayob, Afizah; Rahim, Mustaqqim Abdul; Ghazaly, Zuhayr Md.

2018-03-01

The inconsistency in inter-seasonal rainfall due to climate change will cause a different pattern in the rainfall characteristics and distribution. Peninsular Malaysia is not an exception for this inconsistency, in which it is resulting extreme events such as flood and water scarcity. This study evaluates the seasonal patterns in rainfall indices such as total amount of rainfall, the frequency of wet days, rainfall intensity, extreme frequency, and extreme intensity in Peninsular Malaysia. 40 years (1975-2015) data records have been interpolated using Inverse Distance Weighted method. The results show that the formation of rainfall characteristics are significance during the Northeast monsoon (NEM), as compared to Southwest monsoon (SWM). Also, there is a high rainfall intensity and frequency related to extreme over eastern coasts of Peninsula during the NEM season.

Interventional Therapy for Upper Extremity Deep Vein Thrombosis

PubMed Central

Carlon, Timothy A.; Sudheendra, Deepak

2017-01-01

Approximately 10% of all deep vein thromboses occur in the upper extremity, and that number is increasing due to the use of peripherally inserted central catheters. Sequelae of upper extremity deep vein thrombosis (UEDVT) are similar to those for lower extremity deep vein thrombosis (LEDVT) and include postthrombotic syndrome and pulmonary embolism. In addition to systemic anticoagulation, there are multiple interventional treatment options for UEDVT with the potential to reduce the incidence of these sequelae. To date, there have been no randomized trials to define the optimal management strategy for patients presenting with UEDVT, so many conclusions are drawn from smaller, single-center studies or from LEDVT research. In this article, the authors describe the evidence for the currently available treatment options and an approach to a patient with acute UEDVT. PMID:28265130

Early neurodevelopmental outcomes of extremely preterm infants.

PubMed

Rogers, Elizabeth E; Hintz, Susan R

2016-12-01

Infants born at extreme preterm gestation are at risk for both death and disability. Although rates of survival have improved for this population, and some evidence suggests a trend toward decreased neuromotor impairment over the past decades, a significant improvement in overall early neurodevelopmental outcome has not yet been realized. This review will examine the rates and types of neurodevelopmental impairment seen after extremely preterm birth, including neurosensory, motor, cognitive, and behavioral outcomes. We focus on early outcomes in the first 18-36 months of life, as the majority of large neonatal studies examining neurodevelopmental outcomes stop at this age. However, this early age is clearly just a first glimpse into lifetime outcomes; the neurodevelopmental effects of extreme prematurity may last through school age, adolescence, and beyond. Importantly, prematurity appears to be an independent risk factor for adverse development, but this population demonstrates considerable variability in the types and severity of impairments. Understanding both the nature and prevalence of neurodevelopmental impairment among extremely preterm infants is important because it can lead to targeted interventions that in turn may lead to improved outcomes. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A non-equilibrium model for soil heating and moisture transport during extreme surface heating: The soil (heat-moisture-vapor) HMV-Model Version

Treesearch

William Massman

2015-01-01

Increased use of prescribed fire by land managers and the increasing likelihood of wildfires due to climate change require an improved modeling capability of extreme heating of soils during fires. This issue is addressed here by developing and testing the soil (heat-moisture-vapor) HMVmodel, a 1-D (one-dimensional) non-equilibrium (liquid- vapor phase change)...

WRF model sensitivity to land surface model and cumulus parameterization under short-term climate extremes over the southern Great Plains of the United States

Treesearch

Lisi Pei; Nathan Moore; Shiyuan Zhong; Lifeng Luo; David W. Hyndman; Warren E. Heilman; Zhiqiu Gao

2014-01-01

Extreme weather and climate events, especially short-term excessive drought and wet periods over agricultural areas, have received increased attention. The Southern Great Plains (SGP) is one of the largest agricultural regions in North America and features the underlying Ogallala-High Plains Aquifer system worth great economic value in large part due to production...

Adult Degenerative Scoliosis with Spinal Stenosis Treated with Stand-Alone Cage via an Extreme Lateral Transpsoas Approach; a Case Report and Literature Review

PubMed Central

von Keudell, Arvind; Alimi, Marjan; Gebhard, Harry; Härtl, Roger

2015-01-01

We report the case of a 73-year-old female with severe degenerative scoliosis and back and leg pain that was successfully treated with stand- alone cages via an extreme lateral transpsoas approach. This patient had declined open surgery and instrumentation due to her advanced age concerns about potential side effects. PMID:26110180

Religious Extremism in Pakistan

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-12-01

selected ROs in Pakistan have adopted extreme views due to the political and social context in the country. They then use this socio-economic link to...political and social context in the country. They then use this socio-economic link to indoctrinate citizens with extremist ideologies, thus creating a...Pakistan Support to Recovery and Rehabilitation of Basic Social Services for the Earthquake-Affected Population 2007‒2008,” UNICEF, 1 September 2007

Projections of extreme water level events for atolls in the western Tropical Pacific

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Merrifield, M. A.; Becker, J. M.; Ford, M.; Yao, Y.

2014-12-01

Conditions that lead to extreme water levels and coastal flooding are examined for atolls in the Republic of the Marshall Islands based on a recent field study of wave transformations over fringing reefs, tide gauge observations, and wave model hindcasts. Wave-driven water level extremes pose the largest threat to atoll shorelines, with coastal levels scaling as approximately one-third of the incident breaking wave height. The wave-driven coastal water level is partitioned into a mean setup, low frequency oscillations associated with cross-reef quasi-standing modes, and wind waves that reach the shore after undergoing high dissipation due to breaking and bottom friction. All three components depend on the water level over the reef; however, the sum of the components is independent of water level due to cancelling effects. Wave hindcasts suggest that wave-driven water level extremes capable of coastal flooding are infrequent events that require a peak wave event to coincide with mid- to high-tide conditions. Interannual and decadal variations in sea level do not change the frequency of these events appreciably. Future sea-level rise scenarios significantly increase the flooding threat associated with wave events, with a nearly exponential increase in flooding days per year as sea level exceeds 0.3 to 1.0 m above current levels.

Double Exposure and the Climate Gap: Changing demographics and extreme heat in Ciudad Juárez, Mexico

PubMed Central

Collins, Timothy W.; McDonald, Yolanda J.; Aldouri, Raed; Aboargob, Faraj; Eldeb, Abdelatif; Aguilar, María de Lourdes Romo; Velázquez-Angulo, Juárez Gilberto

2013-01-01

Scholars have recognized a climate gap, wherein poor communities face disproportionate impacts of climate change. Others have noted that climate change and economic globalization may mutually affect a region or social group, leading to double exposure. This paper investigates how current and changing patterns of neighborhood demographics are associated with extreme heat in the border city of Juárez, Mexico. Many Juárez neighborhoods are at-risk to triple exposures, in which residents suffer due to the conjoined effects of the global recession, drug war violence, and extreme heat. Due to impacts of the recession on maquiladora employment and the explosion of drug violence (since 2008), over 75% of neighborhoods experienced decreasing population density between 2000 and 2010 and the average neighborhood saw a 40% increase in the proportion of older adults. Neighborhoods with greater drops in population density and increases in the proportion of older residents over the decade are at significantly higher risk to extreme heat, as are neighborhoods with lower population density and lower levels of education. In this context, triple exposures are associated with a climate gap that most endangers lower socioeconomic status and increasingly older aged populations remaining in neighborhoods from which high proportions of residents have departed. PMID:25642135

Utilization of Satellite Data to Identify and Monitor Changes in Frequency of Meteorological Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mast, J. C.; Dessler, A. E.

2017-12-01

Increases in temperature and climate variability due to human-induced climate change is increasing the frequency and magnitude of extreme heat events (i.e., heatwaves). This will have a detrimental impact on the health of human populations and habitability of certain land locations. Here we seek to utilize satellite data records to identify and monitor extreme heat events. We analyze satellite data sets (MODIS and AIRS land surface temperatures (LST) and water vapor profiles (WV)) due to their global coverage and stable calibration. Heat waves are identified based on the frequency of maximum daily temperatures above a threshold, determined as follows. Land surface temperatures are gridded into uniform latitude/longitude bins. Maximum daily temperatures per bin are determined and probability density functions (PDF) of these maxima are constructed monthly and seasonally. For each bin, a threshold is calculated at the 95th percentile of the PDF of maximum temperatures. Per each bin, an extreme heat event is defined based on the frequency of monthly and seasonal days exceeding the threshold. To account for the decreased ability of the human body to thermoregulate with increasing moisture, and to assess lethality of the heat events, we determine the wet-bulb temperature at the locations of extreme heat events. Preliminary results will be presented.

Does nonstationarity in rainfall require nonstationary intensity-duration-frequency curves?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ganguli, Poulomi; Coulibaly, Paulin

2017-12-01

In Canada, risk of flooding due to heavy rainfall has risen in recent decades; the most notable recent examples include the July 2013 storm in the Greater Toronto region and the May 2017 flood of the Toronto Islands. We investigate nonstationarity and trends in the short-duration precipitation extremes in selected urbanized locations in Southern Ontario, Canada, and evaluate the potential of nonstationary intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves, which form an input to civil infrastructural design. Despite apparent signals of nonstationarity in precipitation extremes in all locations, the stationary vs. nonstationary models do not exhibit any significant differences in the design storm intensity, especially for short recurrence intervals (up to 10 years). The signatures of nonstationarity in rainfall extremes do not necessarily imply the use of nonstationary IDFs for design considerations. When comparing the proposed IDFs with current design standards, for return periods (10 years or less) typical for urban drainage design, current design standards require an update of up to 7 %, whereas for longer recurrence intervals (50-100 years), ideal for critical civil infrastructural design, updates ranging between ˜ 2 and 44 % are suggested. We further emphasize that the above findings need re-evaluation in the light of climate change projections since the intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation are expected to intensify due to global warming.

Double Exposure and the Climate Gap: Changing demographics and extreme heat in Ciudad Juárez, Mexico.

PubMed

Grineski, Sara E; Collins, Timothy W; McDonald, Yolanda J; Aldouri, Raed; Aboargob, Faraj; Eldeb, Abdelatif; Aguilar, María de Lourdes Romo; Velázquez-Angulo, Juárez Gilberto

2015-02-01

Scholars have recognized a climate gap, wherein poor communities face disproportionate impacts of climate change. Others have noted that climate change and economic globalization may mutually affect a region or social group, leading to double exposure. This paper investigates how current and changing patterns of neighborhood demographics are associated with extreme heat in the border city of Juárez, Mexico. Many Juárez neighborhoods are at-risk to triple exposures, in which residents suffer due to the conjoined effects of the global recession, drug war violence, and extreme heat. Due to impacts of the recession on maquiladora employment and the explosion of drug violence (since 2008), over 75% of neighborhoods experienced decreasing population density between 2000 and 2010 and the average neighborhood saw a 40% increase in the proportion of older adults. Neighborhoods with greater drops in population density and increases in the proportion of older residents over the decade are at significantly higher risk to extreme heat, as are neighborhoods with lower population density and lower levels of education. In this context, triple exposures are associated with a climate gap that most endangers lower socioeconomic status and increasingly older aged populations remaining in neighborhoods from which high proportions of residents have departed.

The measured contribution of whipping and springing on the fatigue and extreme loading of container vessels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Storhaug, Gaute

2014-12-01

Whipping/springing research started in the 50'ies. In the 60'ies inland water vessels design rules became stricter due to whipping/springing. The research during the 70-90'ies may be regarded as academic. In 2000 a large ore carrier was strengthened due to severe cracking from North Atlantic operation, and whipping/springing contributed to half of the fatigue damage. Measurement campaigns on blunt and slender vessels were initiated. A few blunt ships were designed to account for whipping/springing. Based on the measurements, the focus shifted from fatigue to extreme loading. In 2005 model tests of a 4,400 TEU container vessel included extreme whipping scenarios. In 2007 the 4400 TEU vessel MSC Napoli broke in two under similar conditions. In 2009 model tests of an 8,600 TEU container vessel container vessel included extreme whipping scenarios. In 2013 the 8,100 TEU vessel MOL COMFORT broke in two under similar conditions. Several classification societies have published voluntary guidelines, which have been used to include whipping/springing in the design of several container vessels. This paper covers results from model tests and full scale measurements used as background for the DNV Legacy guideline. Uncertainties are discussed and recommendations are given in order to obtain useful data. Whipping/springing is no longer academic.

Tales from the Paleoclimate Underground: Lessons Learned from Reconstructing Extreme Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frappier, A. E.

2017-12-01

Tracing patterns of paleoclimate extremes over the past two millennia is becoming ever more important in the effort to understand and predict costly weather hazards and their varied societal impacts. I present three paleoclimate vignettes from the past ten years of different paleotempestology projects I have worked on closely, illustrating our collective challenges and productive pathways in reconstructing rainfall extremes: temporal, spatial, and combining information from disparate proxies. Finally, I aim to share new results from modeling multiple extremes and hazards in Yucatan, a climate change hotspot.

Revisiting the 1993 historical extreme precipitation and damaging flood event in Central Nepal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marahatta, S.; Adhikari, L.; Pokharel, B.

2017-12-01

Nepal is ranked the fourth most climate-vulnerable country in the world and it is prone to different weather-related hazards including droughts, floods, and landslides [Wang et al., 2013; Gillies et al., 2013]. Although extremely vulnerable to extreme weather events, there are no extreme weather warning system established to inform public in Nepal. Nepal has witnessed frequent drought and flood events, however, the extreme precipitation that occurred on 19-20 July 1993 created a devastating flood and landslide making it the worst weather disaster in the history of Nepal. During the second week of July, Nepal and northern India experienced abnormal dry condition due to the shifting of the monsoon trough to central India. The dry weather changed to wet when monsoon trough moved northward towards foothills of the Himalayas. Around the same period, a low pressure center was located over the south-central Nepal. The surface low was supported by the mid-, upper-level shortwave and cyclonic vorticity. A meso-scale convective system created record breaking one day rainfall (540 mm) in the region. The torrential rain impacted the major hydropower reservoir, Bagmati barrage in Karmaiya and triggered many landslides and flash floods. The region had the largest hydropower (Kulekhani hydropower, 92 MW) of the country at that time and the storm event deposited extremely large amount of sediments that reduced one-fourth (4.8 million m3) of reservoir dead storage (12 million m3). The 1-in-1000 years flood damaged the newly constructed barrage and took more than 700 lives. Major highways were damaged cutting off supply of daily needed goods, including food and gas, in the capital city, Kathmandu, for more than a month. In this presentation, the meteorological conditions of the extreme event will be diagnosed and the impact of the sedimentation due to the flood on Kulekhani reservoir and hydropower generation will be discussed.

Extreme Geohazards: Reducing Disaster Risk and Increasing Resilience

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Plag, Hans-Peter; Stein, Seth; Brocklebank, Sean; Jules-Plag, Shelley; Campus, Paola

2014-05-01

Extreme natural hazards have the potential to cause global disasters and to lead to an escalation of the global sustainability crisis. Floods and droughts pose threats that could reach planetary extent, particularly through secondary economic and social impacts. Earthquakes and tsunamis cause disasters that could exceed the immediate coping capacity of the global economy, particularly in hazardous areas containing megacities, that can be particularly vulnerable to natural hazards if proper emergency protocols and infrastructures are not set in place. Recent events illustrate the destruction extreme hazards can inflict, both directly and indirectly, through domino effects resulting from the interaction with the built environment. Unfortunately, the more humanity learns to cope with relatively frequent (50 to 100 years) natural hazard events, the less concerns remain about the low-probability (one in a few hundred or more years) high-impact events. As a consequence, threats from low-probability extreme floods, droughts, and volcanic eruptions are not appropriately accounted for in Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) discussions. With the support of the European Science Foundation (ESF), the Geohazards Community of Practice (GHCP) of the Group on Earth Observations (GEO) has developed a White Paper (WP) on the risk associated with low-probability, high-impact geohazards. These events are insufficiently addressed in risk management, although their potential impacts are comparable to those of a large asteroid impact, a global pandemic, or an extreme drought. The WP aims to increase awareness of the risk associated with these events as a basis for a comprehensive risk management. Extreme geohazards have occurred regularly throughout the past, but mostly did not cause major disasters because the exposure of human assets to such hazards and the global population density were much lower than today. The most extreme events during the last 2,000 years would cause today unparalleled damage on a global scale for a globally connected and stressed society. In particular, large volcanic eruptions could impact climate, damage anthropogenic infrastructure and interrupt resource supplies on a global scale. The occurrence of one or more of the largest volcanic eruptions that took place during the last 2,000 years under today's conditions would likely cause global disasters or catastrophes challenging civilization. Integration of these low-probability, high-impact events in DRR requires an approach focused on resilience and antifragility, as well as the ability to cope with, and recover from failure of infrastructures and social systems. Resilience results from social capital even more than from the robustness of infrastructure. While it is important to understand the hazards through the contribution of geosciences, it is equally important to understand through the contribution of social sciences and engineering the societal processes involved with coping with hazards or leading to failure. For comprehensive development of resilience to natural hazards and, in particular, extreme geohazards, synergy between geosciences, engineering and social sciences, jointed to an improved science-policy relationship is key to success. For example, a simple cost-benefit analysis shows that a comprehensive monitoring system that could identify the onset of an extreme volcanic eruption with sufficient lead time to allow for a globally coordinated preparation makes economic sense. The WP recommends implementation of such a monitoring system with global coverage, assesses the existing assets in current monitoring systems, and illustrates many benefits, besides providing early warning for extreme volcanic eruptions. However, such a monitoring system can provide resilience only via the capability of the global community to react to early warnings. The WP recommends achieving this through the establishment of a global coordination platform comparable to IPCC's role in addressing climate-change related issues to assess knowledge and related adaptive capabilities for disasters due to extreme geohazards.

Monitoring Change in Temperate Coniferous Forest Ecosystems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Williams, Darrel (Technical Monitor); Woodcock, Curtis E.

2004-01-01

The primary goal of this research was to improve monitoring of temperate forest change using remote sensing. In this context, change includes both clearing of forest due to effects such as fire, logging, or land conversion and forest growth and succession. The Landsat 7 ETM+ proved an extremely valuable research tool in this domain. The Landsat 7 program has generated an extremely valuable transformation in the land remote sensing community by making high quality images available for relatively low cost. In addition, the tremendous improvements in the acquisition strategy greatly improved the overall availability of remote sensing images. I believe that from an historical prespective, the Landsat 7 mission will be considered extremely important as the improved image availability will stimulate the use of multitemporal imagery at resolutions useful for local to regional mapping. Also, Landsat 7 has opened the way to global applications of remote sensing at spatial scales where important surface processes and change can be directly monitored. It has been a wonderful experience to have participated on the Landsat 7 Science Team. The research conducted under this project led to contributions in four general domains: I. Improved understanding of the information content of images as a function of spatial resolution; II. Monitoring Forest Change and Succession; III. Development and Integration of Advanced Analysis Methods; and IV. General support of the remote sensing of forests and environmental change. This report is organized according to these topics. This report does not attempt to provide the complete details of the research conducted with support from this grant. That level of detail is provided in the 16 peer reviewed journal articles, 7 book chapters and 5 conference proceedings papers published as part of this grant. This report attempts to explain how the various publications fit together to improve our understanding of how forests are changing and how to monitor forest change with remote sensing. There were no new inventions that resulted from this grant.

A comparative survey of the impacts of extreme rainfall in two international case studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spekkers, Matthieu; Rözer, Viktor; Thieken, Annegret; ten Veldhuis, Marie-Claire; Kreibich, Heidi

2017-08-01

Flooding is assessed as the most important natural hazard in Europe, causing thousands of deaths, affecting millions of people and accounting for large economic losses in the past decade. Little is known about the damage processes associated with extreme rainfall in cities, due to a lack of accurate, comparable and consistent damage data. The objective of this study is to investigate the impacts of extreme rainfall on residential buildings and how affected households coped with these impacts in terms of precautionary and emergency actions. Analyses are based on a unique dataset of damage characteristics and a wide range of potential damage explaining variables at the household level, collected through computer-aided telephone interviews (CATI) and an online survey. Exploratory data analyses based on a total of 859 completed questionnaires in the cities of Münster (Germany) and Amsterdam (the Netherlands) revealed that the uptake of emergency measures is related to characteristics of the hazardous event. In case of high water levels, more efforts are made to reduce damage, while emergency response that aims to prevent damage is less likely to be effective. The difference in magnitude of the events in Münster and Amsterdam, in terms of rainfall intensity and water depth, is probably also the most important cause for the differences between the cities in terms of the suffered financial losses. Factors that significantly contributed to damage in at least one of the case studies are water contamination, the presence of a basement in the building and people's awareness of the upcoming event. Moreover, this study confirms conclusions by previous studies that people's experience with damaging events positively correlates with precautionary behaviour. For improving future damage data acquisition, we recommend the inclusion of cell phones in a CATI survey to avoid biased sampling towards certain age groups.

Recent advances in environmental data mining

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leuenberger, Michael; Kanevski, Mikhail

2016-04-01

Due to the large amount and complexity of data available nowadays in geo- and environmental sciences, we face the need to develop and incorporate more robust and efficient methods for their analysis, modelling and visualization. An important part of these developments deals with an elaboration and application of a contemporary and coherent methodology following the process from data collection to the justification and communication of the results. Recent fundamental progress in machine learning (ML) can considerably contribute to the development of the emerging field - environmental data science. The present research highlights and investigates the different issues that can occur when dealing with environmental data mining using cutting-edge machine learning algorithms. In particular, the main attention is paid to the description of the self-consistent methodology and two efficient algorithms - Random Forest (RF, Breiman, 2001) and Extreme Learning Machines (ELM, Huang et al., 2006), which recently gained a great popularity. Despite the fact that they are based on two different concepts, i.e. decision trees vs artificial neural networks, they both propose promising results for complex, high dimensional and non-linear data modelling. In addition, the study discusses several important issues of data driven modelling, including feature selection and uncertainties. The approach considered is accompanied by simulated and real data case studies from renewable resources assessment and natural hazards tasks. In conclusion, the current challenges and future developments in statistical environmental data learning are discussed. References - Breiman, L., 2001. Random Forests. Machine Learning 45 (1), 5-32. - Huang, G.-B., Zhu, Q.-Y., Siew, C.-K., 2006. Extreme learning machine: theory and applications. Neurocomputing 70 (1-3), 489-501. - Kanevski, M., Pozdnoukhov, A., Timonin, V., 2009. Machine Learning for Spatial Environmental Data. EPFL Press; Lausanne, Switzerland, p.392. - Leuenberger, M., Kanevski, M., 2015. Extreme Learning Machines for spatial environmental data. Computers and Geosciences 85, 64-73.

Which Environmental Factors Predict Seasonal Variation in the Coral Health of Acropora digitifera and Acropora spicifera at Ningaloo Reef?

PubMed Central

Hinrichs, Saskia; Patten, Nicole L.; Feng, Ming; Strickland, Daniel; Waite, Anya M.

2013-01-01

The impact of physico-chemical factors on percent coral cover and coral health was examined on a spatial basis for two dominant Acropora species, A. digitifera and A. spicifera, at Ningaloo Reef (north-western Australia) in the southeast Indian Ocean. Coral health was investigated by measuring metabolic indices (RNA/DNA ratio and protein concentration), energy levels (lipid ratio) and autotrophic indices (chlorophyll a (chl a) and zooxanthellae density) at six stations during typical seasons (austral autumn 2010 (March and April), austral winter 2010 (August)) and during an extreme La Niña event in summer 2011 (February). These indices were correlated with 15 physico-chemical factors (measured immediately following coral sampling) to identify predictors for health indices. Variations in metabolic indices (protein concentration and RNA/DNA ratio) for A. spicifera were mainly explained by nitrogen, temperature and zooplankton concentrations under typical conditions, while for A. digitifera, light as well as phytoplankton, in particular picoeukaryotes, were important, possibly due to higher energy requirement for lipid synthesis and storage in A. digitifera. Optimum metabolic values occurred for both Acropora species at 26–28°C when autotrophic indices (chl a and zooxanthellae density) were lowest. The extreme temperature during the La Niña event resulted in a shift of feeding modes, with an increased importance of water column plankton concentrations for metabolic rates of A. digitifera and light and plankton for A. spicifera. Our results suggest that impacts of high sea surface temperatures during extreme events such as La Niña may be mitigated via reduction on metabolic rates in coral host. The high water column plankton concentrations and associated low light levels resulted in a shift towards high symbiont densities, with lower metabolic rates and energy levels than the seasonal norm for the coral host. PMID:23637770

Extreme pressure differences at 0900 NZST and winds across New Zealand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salinger, M. James; Griffiths, Georgina M.; Gosai, Ashmita

2005-07-01

Trends in extremes in station daily sea-level pressure differences at 0900 NZST are examined, and extreme daily wind gusts, across New Zealand, since the 1960s. Annual time series were examined (with indices of magnitude and frequency over threshold percentiles) from the daily indices selected. These follow from earlier indices of normalized monthly mean sea-level pressure differences between station pairs, except the daily indices are not normalized. The frequency statistics quantify the number of extreme zonal (westerly and easterly), or extreme meridional (southerly or northerly), pressure gradient events. The frequency and magnitude of extreme westerly episodes has increased slightly over New Zealand, with a significant increase in the westerly extremes to the south of New Zealand. In contrast, the magnitude and frequency of easterly extremes has decreased over New Zealand, but increased to the south, with some trends weakly significant. The frequency and magnitude of daily southerly extremes has decreased significantly in the region.Extreme daily wind gust events at key climate stations in New Zealand and at Hobart, Australia, are highly likely to be associated with an extreme daily pressure difference. The converse was less likely to hold: extreme wind gusts were not always observed on days with extreme daily pressure difference, probably due to the strong influence that topography has on localized station winds. Significant correlations exist between the frequency indices and both annual-average mean sea-level pressures around the Australasian region and annual-average sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the Southern Hemisphere. These correlations are generally stronger for indices of extreme westerly or extreme southerly airflows. Annual-average pressures in the Tasman Sea or Southern Ocean are highly correlated to zonal indices (frequency of extreme westerlies). SST anomalies in the NINO3 region or on either side of the South Island are significantly correlated with the frequency of extreme westerly airflows.

Characteristics of atmospheric circulation patterns associated with extreme temperatures over North America in observations and climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loikith, Paul C.

Motivated by a desire to understand the physical mechanisms involved in future anthropogenic changes in extreme temperature events, the key atmospheric circulation patterns associated with extreme daily temperatures over North America in the current climate are identified. Several novel metrics are used to systematically identify and describe these patterns for the entire continent. The orientation, physical characteristics, and spatial scale of these circulation patterns vary based on latitude, season, and proximity to important geographic features (i.e., mountains, coastlines). The anomaly patterns associated with extreme cold events tend to be similar to, but opposite in sign of, those associated with extreme warm events, especially within the westerlies, and tend to scale with temperature in the same locations. The influence of the Pacific North American (PNA) pattern, the Northern Annular Mode (NAM), and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on extreme temperature days and months shows that associations between extreme temperatures and the PNA and NAM are stronger than associations with ENSO. In general, the association with extremes tends to be stronger on monthly than daily time scales. Extreme temperatures are associated with the PNA and NAM in locations typically influenced by these circulation patterns; however many extremes still occur on days when the amplitude and polarity of these patterns do not favor their occurrence. In winter, synoptic-scale, transient weather disturbances are important drivers of extreme temperature days; however these smaller-scale events are often concurrent with amplified PNA or NAM patterns. Associations are weaker in summer when other physical mechanisms affecting the surface energy balance, such as anomalous soil moisture content, are associated with extreme temperatures. Analysis of historical runs from seventeen climate models from the CMIP5 database suggests that most models simulate realistic circulation patterns associated with extreme temperature days in most places. Model-simulated patterns tend to resemble observed patterns better in the winter than the summer and at 500 hPa than at the surface. There is substantial variability among the suite of models analyzed and most models simulate circulation patterns more realistically away from influential features such as large bodies of water and complex topography.

The Influence of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (mjo) on Extreme Rainfall Over the Central and Southern Peruvian Andes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heidinger, H.; Jones, C.; Carvalho, L. V.

2015-12-01

Extreme rainfall is important for the Andean region because of the large contribution of these events to the seasonal totals and consequent impacts on water resources for agriculture, water consumption, industry and hydropower generation, as well as the occurrence of floods and landslides. Over Central and Southern Peruvian Andes (CSPA), rainfall exceeding the 90th percentile contributed between 44 to 100% to the total Nov-Mar 1979-2010 rainfall. Additionally, precipitation from a large majority of stations in the CSPA exhibits statistically significant spectral peaks on intraseasonal time-scales (20 to 70 days). The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is the most important intraseasonal mode of atmospheric circulation and moist convection in the tropics and the occurrence of extreme weather events worldwide. Mechanisms explaining the relationships between the MJO and precipitation in the Peruvian Andes have not been properly described yet. The present study examines the relationships between the activity and phases of the MJO and the occurrence of extreme rainfall over the CSPA. We found that the frequency of extreme rainfall events increase in the CSPA when the MJO is active. MJO phases 5, 6 and 7 contribute to the overall occurrence of extreme rainfall events over the CSPA. However, how the MJO phases modulate extreme rainfall depends on the location of the stations. For instance, extreme precipitation (above the 90th percentile) in stations in the Amazon basin are slightly more sensitive to phases 2, 3 and 4; the frequency of extremes in stations in the Pacific basin increases in phases 5, 6 and 7 whereas phase 2, 3 and 7 modulates extreme precipitation in stations in the Titicaca basin. Greater variability among stations is observed when using the 95th and 99th percentiles to identify extremes. Among the main mechanisms that explain the increase in extreme rainfall events in the Peruvian Andes is the intensification of the easterly moisture flux anomalies, which are favored during certain phases of the MJO. Here dynamical mechanisms linking the MJO to the occurrence of extreme rainfall in stations in the Peruvian Andes are investigated using composites of integrated moisture flux and geopotential height anomalies.

Post irradiation effects (PIE) in integrated circuits

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shaw, D. C.; Lowry, L.; Barnes, C.; Zakharia, M.; Agarwal, S.; Rax, B.

1991-01-01

Post-irradiation effects (PIE) ranging from normal recovery to catastrophic failure have been observed in integrated circuits during the PIE period. Data presented show failure due to rebound after a 10 krad(Si) dose. In particular, five device types are investigated with varying PIE response. Special attention has been given to the HI1-507A analog multiplexer because its PIE response is extreme. X-ray diffraction has been uniquely employed to measure physical stress in the HI1-507A metallization. An attempt has been made to show a relationship between stress relaxation and radiation effects. All data presented support the current MIL-STD Method 1019.4 but demonstrate the importance of performing PIE measurements, even when mission doses are as low as 10 krad(Si).

A Rare Case of Multiple Segmental Eccrine Spiradenomas

PubMed Central

Englander, Laura; McClain, Danielle; Amin, Bijal; Turner, Ryan B.

2011-01-01

Eccrine spiradenoma is a benign adnexal neoplasm that has been historically designated as a tumor of eccrine differentiation, although current reconsideration indicates an apocrine process. It usually presents on the trunk and extremities as a tender dermal or subcutaneous papule or nodule frequently with a pink or blue hue. The clinical picture is often not distinct and biopsy is required for diagnosis. Eccrine spiradenoma can present in a variety of ways, including as tumors arranged in zosteriform/dermatomal and/or blaschkoid distributions, often precluding a straightforward diagnosis. Proper diagnosis of eccrine spiradenoma is important due to the occurrence of potentially life-threatening malignant transformation. This article illustrates a rare presentation of eccrine spiradenoma with a concise review for the dermatologist. PMID:21532877

The Role of Exercise in Prevention and Treatment of Osteopenia of Prematurity: An Update.

PubMed

Eliakim, Alon; Litmanovitz, Ita; Nemet, Dan

2017-11-01

Premature infants have an increased risk of osteopenia due to limited bone mass accretion in utero and a greater need for bone nutrients. Until recently, most efforts to prevent osteopenia of prematurity focused on nutritional changes. Recent studies indicate that passive range-of-motion exercise of the extremities may lead to beneficial effects on body weight, increased bone mineralization, increased bone formation markers and leptin levels, and attenuation of the natural postnatal decline in bone speed of sound. These results suggest that exercise may play an important role in the prevention and treatment of osteopenia of prematurity. This review summarizes our current knowledge on the role of exercise in the prevention and treatment of osteopenia of prematurity.

Rare hereditary cause of chronic pancreatitis in a young male: SPINK1 mutation

PubMed Central

Patel, Janaki; Madan, Arina; Gammon, Amanda; Sossenheimer, Michael; Samadder, Niloy Jewel

2017-01-01

Hereditary chronic pancreatitis associated with a mutation in the serine protease inhibitor, Kazal Type-1 (SPINK-1 gene) is extremely rare. The SPINK1 mutation results in trypsinogen activation which predisposes to chronic pancreatitis predominately when combined with CFTR gene mutations. It presents as either chronic or recurrent acute pancreatitis. Symptom control and management of complications is important. Active surveillance with cross-sectional imaging for pancreatic malignancy in individuals with hereditary pancreatitis is advocated due to individuals being high risk. We present an unusual case of a young male who initially presented with renal colic and was incidentally diagnosed with severe chronic pancreatitis on abdominal imaging, with genetic testing confirming a homozygous SPINK1 mutation. PMID:29515728

Present-day deformation across the Basin and Range Province, western United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thatcher, W.; Foulger, G.R.; Julian, B.R.; Svarc, J.; Quilty, E.; Bawden, G.W.

1999-01-01

The distribution of deformation within the Basin and Range province was determined from 1992, 1996, and 1998 surveys of a dense, 800-kilometer- aperture, Global Positioning System network, Internal deformation generally follows the pattern of Holocene fault distribution and is concentrated near the western extremity of the province, with lesser amounts focused near the eastern boundary. Little net deformation occurs across the central 500 kilometers of the network in western Utah and eastern Nevada. Concentration of deformation adjacent to the rigid Sierra Nevada block indicates that external plate-driving forces play an important role in driving deformation, modulating the extensional stress field generated by internal buoyancy forces that are due to lateral density gradients and topography near the province boundaries.

Rare hereditary cause of chronic pancreatitis in a young male: SPINK1 mutation.

PubMed

Patel, Janaki; Madan, Arina; Gammon, Amanda; Sossenheimer, Michael; Samadder, Niloy Jewel

2017-01-01

Hereditary chronic pancreatitis associated with a mutation in the serine protease inhibitor, Kazal Type-1 (SPINK-1 gene) is extremely rare. The SPINK1 mutation results in trypsinogen activation which predisposes to chronic pancreatitis predominately when combined with CFTR gene mutations. It presents as either chronic or recurrent acute pancreatitis. Symptom control and management of complications is important. Active surveillance with cross-sectional imaging for pancreatic malignancy in individuals with hereditary pancreatitis is advocated due to individuals being high risk. We present an unusual case of a young male who initially presented with renal colic and was incidentally diagnosed with severe chronic pancreatitis on abdominal imaging, with genetic testing confirming a homozygous SPINK1 mutation.

Arctic daily temperature and precipitation extremes: Observed and simulated physical behavior

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Glisan, Justin Michael

Simulations using a six-member ensemble of Pan-Arctic WRF (PAW) were produced on two Arctic domains with 50-km resolution to analyze precipitation and temperature extremes for various periods. The first study used a domain developed for the Regional Arctic Climate Model (RACM). Initial simulations revealed deep atmospheric circulation biases over the northern Pacific Ocean, manifested in pressure, geopotential height, and temperature fields. Possible remedies to correct these large biases, such as modifying the physical domain or using different initial/boundary conditions, were unsuccessful. Spectral (interior) nudging was introduced as a way of constraining the model to be more consistent with observed behavior. However, such control over numerical model behavior raises concerns over how much nudging may affect unforced variability and extremes. Strong nudging may reduce or filter out extreme events, since the nudging pushes the model toward a relatively smooth, large-scale state. The question then becomes---what is the minimum spectral nudging needed to correct biases while not limiting the simulation of extreme events? To determine this, we use varying degrees of spectral nudging, using WRF's standard nudging as a reference point during January and July 2007. Results suggest that there is a marked lack of sensitivity to varying degrees of nudging. Moreover, given that nudging is an artificial forcing applied in the model, an important outcome of this work is that nudging strength apparently can be considerably smaller than WRF's standard strength and still produce reliable simulations. In the remaining studies, we used the same PAW setup to analyze daily precipitation extremes simulated over a 19-year period on the CORDEX Arctic domain for winter and summer. We defined these seasons as the three-month period leading up to and including the climatological sea ice maximum and minimum, respectively. Analysis focused on four North American regions defined using climatological records, regional weather patterns, and geographical/topographical features. We compared simulated extremes with those occurring at corresponding observing stations in the U.S. National Climate Data Center's (NCDC's) Global Summary of the Day. Our analysis focused on variations in features of the extremes such as magnitudes, spatial scales, and temporal regimes. Using composites of extreme events, we also analyzed the processes producing these extremes, comparing circulation, pressure, temperature and humidity fields from the ERA-Interim reanalysis and the model output. The analysis revealed the importance of atmospheric convection in the Arctic for some extreme precipitation events and the overall importance of topographic precipitation. The analysis established the physical credibility of the simulations for extreme behavior, laying a foundation for examining projected changes in extreme precipitation. It also highlighted the utility of the model for extracting behavior that one cannot discern directly from the observations, such as summer convective precipitation.

Genetic Structure of Pacific Trout at the Extreme Southern End of Their Native Range

PubMed Central

Abadía-Cardoso, Alicia; Garza, John Carlos; Mayden, Richard L.; García de León, Francisco Javier

2015-01-01

Salmonid fishes are cold water piscivores with a native distribution spanning nearly the entire temperate and subarctic northern hemisphere. Trout in the genus Oncorhynchus are the most widespread salmonid fishes and are among the most important fish species in the world, due to their extensive use in aquaculture and valuable fisheries. Trout that inhabit northwestern Mexico are the southernmost native salmonid populations in the world, and the least studied in North America. They are unfortunately also facing threats to their continued existence. Previous work has described one endemic species, the Mexican golden trout (O. chrysogaster), and one endemic subspecies, Nelson’s trout (O. mykiss nelsoni), in Mexico, but previous work indicated that there is vastly more biodiversity in this group than formally described. Here we conducted a comprehensive genetic analysis of this important group of fishes using novel genetic markers and techniques to elucidate the biodiversity of trout inhabiting northwestern Mexico, examine genetic population structure of Mexican trout and their relationships to other species of Pacific trout, and measure introgression from non-native hatchery rainbow trout. We confirmed substantial genetic diversity and extremely strong genetic differentiation present in the Mexican trout complex, not only between basins but also between some locations within basins, with at least four species-level taxa present. We also revealed significant divergence between Mexican trout and other trout species and found that introgression from non-native rainbow trout is present but limited, and that the genetic integrity of native trout is still maintained in most locations. This information will help to guide effective conservation strategies for this important group of fishes. PMID:26509445

Combining multiple sources of data to inform conservation of Lesser Prairie-Chicken populations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ross, Beth; Haukos, David A.; Hagen, Christian A.; Pitman, James

2018-01-01

Conservation of small populations is often based on limited data from spatially and temporally restricted studies, resulting in management actions based on an incomplete assessment of the population drivers. If fluctuations in abundance are related to changes in weather, proper management is especially important, because extreme weather events could disproportionately affect population abundance. Conservation assessments, especially for vulnerable populations, are aided by a knowledge of how extreme events influence population status and trends. Although important for conservation efforts, data may be limited for small or vulnerable populations. Integrated population models maximize information from various sources of data to yield population estimates that fully incorporate uncertainty from multiple data sources while allowing for the explicit incorporation of environmental covariates of interest. Our goal was to assess the relative influence of population drivers for the Lesser Prairie-Chicken (Tympanuchus pallidicinctus) in the core of its range, western and southern Kansas, USA. We used data from roadside lek count surveys, nest monitoring surveys, and survival data from telemetry monitoring combined with climate (Palmer drought severity index) data in an integrated population model. Our results indicate that variability in population growth rate was most influenced by variability in juvenile survival. The Palmer drought severity index had no measurable direct effects on adult survival or mean number of offspring per female; however, there were declines in population growth rate following severe drought. Because declines in population growth rate occurred at a broad spatial scale, declines in response to drought were likely due to decreases in chick and juvenile survival rather than emigration outside of the study area. Overall, our model highlights the importance of accounting for environmental and demographic sources of variability, and provides a thorough method for simultaneously evaluating population demography in response to long-term climate effects.

Climate change and water availability for vulnerable agriculture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dalezios, Nicolas; Tarquis, Ana Maria

2017-04-01

Climatic projections for the Mediterranean basin indicate that the area will suffer a decrease in water resources due to climate change. The key climatic trends identified for the Mediterranean region are continuous temperature increase, further drying with precipitation decrease and the accentuation of climate extremes, such as droughts, heat waves and/or forest fires, which are expected to have a profound effect on agriculture. Indeed, the impact of climate variability on agricultural production is important at local, regional, national, as well as global scales. Agriculture of any kind is strongly influenced by the availability of water. Climate change will modify rainfall, evaporation, runoff, and soil moisture storage patterns. Changes in total seasonal precipitation or in its pattern of variability are both important. Similarly, with higher temperatures, the water-holding capacity of the atmosphere and evaporation into the atmosphere increase, and this favors increased climate variability, with more intense precipitation and more droughts. As a result, crop yields are affected by variations in climatic factors, such as air temperature and precipitation, and the frequency and severity of the above mentioned extreme events. The aim of this work is to briefly present the main effects of climate change and variability on water resources with respect to water availability for vulnerable agriculture, namely in the Mediterranean region. Results of undertaken studies in Greece on precipitation patterns and drought assessment using historical data records are presented. Based on precipitation frequency analysis, evidence of precipitation reductions is shown. Drought is assessed through an agricultural drought index, namely the Vegetation Health Index (VHI), in Thessaly, a drought-prone region in central Greece. The results justify the importance of water availability for vulnerable agriculture and the need for drought monitoring in the Mediterranean basin as part of an integrated climate adaptation strategy.

Contrasting behavior of covalent and molecular carbon allotropes exposed to extreme ultraviolet and soft x-ray free-electron laser radiation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Toufarová, M.; Hájková, V.; Chalupský, J.; Burian, T.; Vacík, J.; Vorlíček, V.; Vyšín, L.; Gaudin, J.; Medvedev, N.; Ziaja, B.; Nagasono, M.; Yabashi, M.; Sobierajski, R.; Krzywinski, J.; Sinn, H.; Störmer, M.; Koláček, K.; Tiedtke, K.; Toleikis, S.; Juha, L.

2017-12-01

All carbon materials, e.g., amorphous carbon (a-C) coatings and C60 fullerene thin films, play an important role in short-wavelength free-electron laser (FEL) research motivated by FEL optics development and prospective nanotechnology applications. Responses of a-C and C60 layers to the extreme ultraviolet (SPring-8 Compact SASE Source in Japan) and soft x-ray (free-electron laser in Hamburg) free-electron laser radiation are investigated by Raman spectroscopy, differential interference contrast, and atomic force microscopy. A remarkable difference in the behavior of covalent (a-C) and molecular (C60) carbonaceous solids is demonstrated under these irradiation conditions. Low thresholds for ablation of a fullerene crystal (estimated to be around 0.15 eV/atom for C60 vs 0.9 eV/atom for a-C in terms of the absorbed dose) are caused by a low cohesive energy of fullerene crystals. An efficient mechanism of the removal of intact C60 molecules from the irradiated crystal due to Coulomb repulsion of fullerene-cage cation radicals formed by the ionizing radiation is revealed by a detailed modeling.

Contrasting behavior of covalent and molecular carbon allotropes exposed to extreme ultraviolet and soft x-ray free-electron laser radiation

DOE PAGES

Toufarová, M.; Hájková, V.; Chalupský, J.; ...

2017-12-04

All carbon materials, e.g., amorphous carbon (a-C) coatings and C 60 fullerene thin films, play an important role in short-wavelength free-electron laser (FEL) research motivated by FEL optics development and prospective nanotechnology applications. We investigate responses of a-C and C 60 layers to the extreme ultraviolet (SPring-8 Compact SASE Source in Japan) and soft x-ray (free-electron laser in Hamburg) free-electron laser radiation by Raman spectroscopy, differential interference contrast, and atomic force microscopy. A remarkable difference in the behavior of covalent (a-C) and molecular ( C 60 ) carbonaceous solids is demonstrated under these irradiation conditions. Low thresholds for ablation ofmore » a fullerene crystal (estimated to be around 0.15 eV/atom for C 60 vs 0.9 eV/atom for a-C in terms of the absorbed dose) are caused by a low cohesive energy of fullerene crystals. An efficient mechanism of the removal of intact C 60 molecules from the irradiated crystal due to Coulomb repulsion of fullerene-cage cation radicals formed by the ionizing radiation is revealed by a detailed modeling.« less

Critical Spacecraft-to-Earth Communications for Mars Exploration Rover (MER) entry, descent and landing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hurd, William J.; Estabrook, Polly; Racho, Caroline S.; Satorius, Edgar H.

2002-01-01

For planetary lander missions, the most challenging phase of the spacecraft to ground communications is during the entry, descent, and landing (EDL). As each 2003 Mars Exploration Rover (MER) enters the Martian atmosphere, it slows dramatically. The extreme acceleration and jerk cause extreme Doppler dynamics on the X-band signal received on Earth. When the vehicle slows sufficiently, the parachute is deployed, causing almost a step in deceleration. After parachute deployment, the lander is lowered beneath the parachute on a bridle. The swinging motion of the lander imparts high Doppler dynamics on the signal and causes the received signal strength to vary widely, due to changing antenna pointing angles. All this time, the vehicle transmits important health and status information that is especially critical if the landing is not successful. Even using the largest Deep Space Network antennas, the weak signal and high dynamics render it impossible to conduct reliable phase coherent communications. Therefore, a specialized form of frequency-shift-keying will be used. This paper describes the EDL scenario, the signal conditions, the methods used to detect and frequency-track the carrier and to detect the data modulation, and the resulting performance estimates.

Quasiparticle lifetime broadening in resonant x-ray scattering of NH4NO3

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vinson, John; Jach, Terrence; Müller, Matthias; Unterumsberger, Rainer; Beckhoff, Burkhard

2016-07-01

It has been previously shown that two effects cause dramatic changes in the x-ray absorption and emission spectra from the N K edge of the insulating crystal ammonium nitrate. First, vibrational disorder causes major changes in the absorption spectrum, originating not only from the thermal population of phonons, but, significantly, from zero-point motion as well. Second, the anomalously large broadening (˜4 eV) of the emission originating from nitrate σ states is due to the unusually short lifetimes of quasiparticles in an otherwise extremely narrow band. In this work, we investigate the coupling of these effects to core and valence excitons that are created as the initial x-ray excitation energy is progressively reduced toward the N edge. Using a G W /Bethe-Salpeter approach, we show the extent to which this anomalous broadening is captured by the G W approximation. The data and calculations demonstrate the importance that the complex self-energies (finite lifetimes) of the valence bands have on the interpretation of emission spectra. We produce a scheme to explain why extreme lifetimes should appear in σ states of other similar compounds.

College students and computers: assessment of usage patterns and musculoskeletal discomfort.

PubMed

Noack-Cooper, Karen L; Sommerich, Carolyn M; Mirka, Gary A

2009-01-01

A limited number of studies have focused on computer-use-related MSDs in college students, though risk factor exposure may be similar to that of workers who use computers. This study examined computer use patterns of college students, and made comparisons to a group of previously studied computer-using professionals. 234 students completed a web-based questionnaire concerning computer use habits and physical discomfort respondents specifically associated with computer use. As a group, students reported their computer use to be at least 'Somewhat likely' 18 out of 24 h/day, compared to 12 h for the professionals. Students reported more uninterrupted work behaviours than the professionals. Younger graduate students reported 33.7 average weekly computing hours, similar to hours reported by younger professionals. Students generally reported more frequent upper extremity discomfort than the professionals. Frequent assumption of awkward postures was associated with frequent discomfort. The findings signal a need for intervention, including, training and education, prior to entry into the workforce. Students are future workers, and so it is important to determine whether their increasing exposure to computers, prior to entering the workforce, may make it so they enter already injured or do not enter their chosen profession due to upper extremity MSDs.

Oxygen Profile of a Thermo-Haliophilic Community in the Badwater Salt Flat

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, H. D.; McKay, C. P.; Rainey, F.; Bebout, B.; Carpenter, S.

2004-01-01

Badwater is the lowest, saltiest, and hottest, place in North America. This extreme environment is 86 meters (282 feet) below sea level surrounded by four mountain ranges. Due to the geographical location Badwater does not receive moisture from the prevailing winds, this intern results in a hot, arid, and salty environment. Despite these extreme living conditions, microbes manage to flourish within the salt flat. The salt acts as an insulator making life just beneath the surface more comfortable In this paper, we compare the microbial population versus oxygen concentration; and the importance of and the role of oxygen in metabolic functions by these thermo-haliophiles. Furthermore a model of the oxygen profile will also provide an insight to the oxygen cycle in salty environments. This research has implications for the limits of life on Earth and Mars. Recent results from the MER rovers show that water on Mars was very salty. Measuring the oxygen profile in these salty environments on Earth provides a framework within which potential life on Mars can be evaluated. The use of an oxygen profile could also be used as a search criteria for life.

Nonlinear optical and multiphoton processes for in situ manipulation and conversion of photons: applications to energy and healthcare (Conference Presentation)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prasad, Paras N.

2017-02-01

Chiral control of nonlinear optical functions holds a great promise for a wide range of applications including optical signal processing, bio-sensing and chiral bio-imaging. In chiral polyfluorene thin films, we demonstrated extremely large chiral nonlinearity. The physics of manipulating excitation dynamics for photon transformation will be discussed, along with nanochemistry control of upconversion in hierarchically built organic chromophore coupled-core-multiple shell nanostructures which enable introduce new, organic-inorganic energy transfer routes for broadband light harvesting and increased upconversion efficiency via multistep cascaded energy transfer. We are pursuing the applications of photon conversion technology in IR harvesting for photovoltaics, high contrast bioimaging, photoacoustic imaging, photodynamic therapy, and optogenetics. An important application is in Brain research and Neurophotonics for functional mapping and modulation of brain activities. Another new direction pursued is magnetic field control of light in in a chiral polymer nanocomposite to achieve large magneto-optic coefficient which can enable sensing of extremely weak magnetic field due to brain waves. Finally, we will consider the thought provoking concept of utilizing photons to quantify, through magneto-optics, and augment - through nanoptogenetics, the cognitive states, thus paving the path way to a quantified human paradigm.

Contrasting behavior of covalent and molecular carbon allotropes exposed to extreme ultraviolet and soft x-ray free-electron laser radiation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Toufarová, M.; Hájková, V.; Chalupský, J.

All carbon materials, e.g., amorphous carbon (a-C) coatings and C 60 fullerene thin films, play an important role in short-wavelength free-electron laser (FEL) research motivated by FEL optics development and prospective nanotechnology applications. We investigate responses of a-C and C 60 layers to the extreme ultraviolet (SPring-8 Compact SASE Source in Japan) and soft x-ray (free-electron laser in Hamburg) free-electron laser radiation by Raman spectroscopy, differential interference contrast, and atomic force microscopy. A remarkable difference in the behavior of covalent (a-C) and molecular ( C 60 ) carbonaceous solids is demonstrated under these irradiation conditions. Low thresholds for ablation ofmore » a fullerene crystal (estimated to be around 0.15 eV/atom for C 60 vs 0.9 eV/atom for a-C in terms of the absorbed dose) are caused by a low cohesive energy of fullerene crystals. An efficient mechanism of the removal of intact C 60 molecules from the irradiated crystal due to Coulomb repulsion of fullerene-cage cation radicals formed by the ionizing radiation is revealed by a detailed modeling.« less

Asymptotic-preserving Lagrangian approach for modeling anisotropic transport in magnetized plasmas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chacon, Luis; Del-Castillo-Negrete, Diego

2011-10-01

Modeling electron transport in magnetized plasmas is extremely challenging due to the extreme anisotropy introduced by the presence of the magnetic field (χ∥ /χ⊥ ~1010 in fusion plasmas). Recently, a novel Lagrangian method has been proposed to solve the local and non-local purely parallel transport equation in general 3D magnetic fields. The approach avoids numerical pollution (in fact, it respects transport barriers -flux surfaces- exactly by construction), is inherently positivity-preserving, and is scalable algorithmically (i.e., work per degree-of-freedom is grid-independent). In this poster, we discuss the extension of the Lagrangian approach to include perpendicular transport and sources. We present an asymptotic-preserving numerical formulation that ensures a consistent numerical discretization temporally and spatially for arbitrary χ∥ /χ⊥ ratios. This is of importance because parallel and perpendicular transport terms in the transport equation may become comparable in regions of the plasma (e.g., at incipient islands), while remaining disparate elsewhere. We will demonstrate the potential of the approach with various challenging configurations, including the case of transport across a magnetic island in cylindrical geometry. D. del-Castillo-Negrete, L. Chacón, PRL, 106, 195004 (2011); DPP11 invited talk by del-Castillo-Negrete.

Sliding Mode Tracking Control of a Wire-Driven Upper-Limb Rehabilitation Robot with Nonlinear Disturbance Observer.

PubMed

Niu, Jie; Yang, Qianqian; Wang, Xiaoyun; Song, Rong

2017-01-01

Robot-aided rehabilitation has become an important technology to restore and reinforce motor functions of patients with extremity impairment, whereas it can be extremely challenging to achieve satisfactory tracking performance due to uncertainties and disturbances during rehabilitation training. In this paper, a wire-driven rehabilitation robot that can work over a three-dimensional space is designed for upper-limb rehabilitation, and sliding mode control with nonlinear disturbance observer is designed for the robot to deal with the problem of unpredictable disturbances during robot-assisted training. Then, simulation and experiments of trajectory tracking are carried out to evaluate the performance of the system, the position errors, and the output forces of the designed control scheme are compared with those of the traditional sliding mode control (SMC) scheme. The results show that the designed control scheme can effectively reduce the tracking errors and chattering of the output forces as compared with the traditional SMC scheme, which indicates that the nonlinear disturbance observer can reduce the effect of unpredictable disturbances. The designed control scheme for the wire-driven rehabilitation robot has potential to assist patients with stroke in performing repetitive rehabilitation training.

Surface modification of polymers for biocompatibility via exposure to extreme ultraviolet radiation.

PubMed

Inam Ul Ahad; Bartnik, Andrzej; Fiedorowicz, Henryk; Kostecki, Jerzy; Korczyc, Barbara; Ciach, Tomasz; Brabazon, Dermot

2014-09-01

Polymeric biomaterials are being widely used for the treatment of various traumata, diseases and defects in human beings due to ease in their synthesis. As biomaterials have direct interaction with the extracellular environment in the biological world, biocompatibility is a topic of great significance. The introduction or enhancement of biocompatibility in certain polymers is still a challenge to overcome. Polymer biocompatibility can be controlled by surface modification. Various physical and chemical methods (e.g., chemical and plasma treatment, ion implantation, and ultraviolet irradiation etc.) are in use or being developed for the modification of polymer surfaces. However an important limitation in their employment is the alteration of bulk material. Different surface and bulk properties of biomaterials are often desirable for biomedical applications. Because extreme ultraviolet (EUV) radiation penetration is quite limited even in low density mediums, it could be possible to use it for surface modification without influencing the bulk material. This article reviews the degree of biocompatibility of different polymeric biomaterials being currently employed in various biomedical applications, the surface properties required to be modified for biocompatibility control, plasma and laser ablation based surface modification techniques, and research studies indicating possible use of EUV for enhancing biocompatibility. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Generalized extreme gust wind speeds distributions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cheng, E.; Yeung, C.

2002-01-01

Since summer 1996, the US wind engineers are using the extreme gust (or 3-s gust) as the basic wind speed to quantify the destruction of extreme winds. In order to better understand these destructive wind forces, it is important to know the appropriate representations of these extreme gust wind speeds. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to determine the most suitable extreme value distributions for the annual extreme gust wind speeds recorded in large selected areas. To achieve this objective, we are using the generalized Pareto distribution as the diagnostic tool for determining the types of extreme gust wind speed distributions. The three-parameter generalized extreme value distribution function is, thus, reduced to either Type I Gumbel, Type II Frechet or Type III reverse Weibull distribution function for the annual extreme gust wind speeds recorded at a specific site.With the considerations of the quality and homogeneity of gust wind data collected at more than 750 weather stations throughout the United States, annual extreme gust wind speeds at selected 143 stations in the contiguous United States were used in the study. ?? 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Microbial diversity of extreme habitats in human homes.

PubMed

Savage, Amy M; Hills, Justin; Driscoll, Katherine; Fergus, Daniel J; Grunden, Amy M; Dunn, Robert R

2016-01-01

High-throughput sequencing techniques have opened up the world of microbial diversity to scientists, and a flurry of studies in the most remote and extreme habitats on earth have begun to elucidate the key roles of microbes in ecosystems with extreme conditions. These same environmental extremes can also be found closer to humans, even in our homes. Here, we used high-throughput sequencing techniques to assess bacterial and archaeal diversity in the extreme environments inside human homes (e.g., dishwashers, hot water heaters, washing machine bleach reservoirs, etc.). We focused on habitats in the home with extreme temperature, pH, and chemical environmental conditions. We found a lower diversity of microbes in these extreme home environments compared to less extreme habitats in the home. However, we were nonetheless able to detect sequences from a relatively diverse array of bacteria and archaea. Habitats with extreme temperatures alone appeared to be able to support a greater diversity of microbes than habitats with extreme pH or extreme chemical environments alone. Microbial diversity was lowest when habitats had both extreme temperature and one of these other extremes. In habitats with both extreme temperatures and extreme pH, taxa with known associations with extreme conditions dominated. Our findings highlight the importance of examining interactive effects of multiple environmental extremes on microbial communities. Inasmuch as taxa from extreme environments can be both beneficial and harmful to humans, our findings also suggest future work to understand both the threats and opportunities posed by the life in these habitats.

Springtime extreme moisture transport into the Arctic and its impact on sea ice concentration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Wenchang; Magnusdottir, Gudrun

2017-05-01

Recent studies suggest that springtime moisture transport into the Arctic can initiate sea ice melt that extends to a large area in the following summer and fall, which can help explain Arctic sea ice interannual variability. Yet the impact from an individual moisture transport event, especially the extreme ones, is unclear on synoptic to intraseasonal time scales and this is the focus of the current study. Springtime extreme moisture transport into the Arctic from a daily data set is found to be dominant over Atlantic longitudes. Lag composite analysis shows that these extreme events are accompanied by a substantial sea ice concentration reduction over the Greenland-Barents-Kara Seas that lasts around a week. Surface air temperature also becomes anomalously high over these seas and cold to the west of Greenland as well as over the interior Eurasian continent. The blocking weather regime over the North Atlantic is mainly responsible for the extreme moisture transport, occupying more than 60% of the total extreme days, while the negative North Atlantic Oscillation regime is hardly observed at all during the extreme transport days. These extreme moisture transport events appear to be preceded by eastward propagating large-scale tropical convective forcing by as long as 2 weeks but with great uncertainty due to lack of statistical significance.

How do extreme streamflow due to hurricane IRMA compare during 1938-2017 in South Eastern US?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anandhi, A.

2017-12-01

The question related to Irma, Harvey, Maria, and other hurricanes is: are hurricane more frequent and intense than they have been in the past. Recent hurricanes were unusually strong hitting the US Coastline or territories as a category 4 or 5, dropping unusually large amounts of precipitation on the affected areas creating extreme high-flow events in rivers and streams in affected areas. The objective of the study is to determine how extreme are streamflows from recent hurricanes (e.g. IRMA) when compared to streamflow's during 1938-2017 time-period. Additionally, in this study, the extreme precipitations are also compared during IRMA. Extreme high flows are selected from Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration (IHA). They are distributions, timing, duration, frequency, magnitude, pulses, and days of extreme events in rivers of the southeastern United States and Gulf of Mexico Hydrologic Region—03. Streamflow data from 30 stations in the region with at least 79 years of record (1938-2017) are used. Historical precipitation changes is obtained from meta-analysis of published literature. Our preliminary results indicate the extremeness of streamflow from recent hurricanes vary with the IHA indicator selected. Some potential implications of these extreme events on the region's ecosystem are also discussed using causal chains and loops.

Control of extreme events in the bubbling onset of wave turbulence.

PubMed

Galuzio, P P; Viana, R L; Lopes, S R

2014-04-01

We show the existence of an intermittent transition from temporal chaos to turbulence in a spatially extended dynamical system, namely, the forced and damped one-dimensional nonlinear Schrödinger equation. For some values of the forcing parameter, the system dynamics intermittently switches between ordered states and turbulent states, which may be seen as extreme events in some contexts. In a Fourier phase space, the intermittency takes place due to the loss of transversal stability of unstable periodic orbits embedded in a low-dimensional subspace. We mapped these transversely unstable regions and perturbed the system in order to significantly reduce the occurrence of extreme events of turbulence.

Modelling Precipitation and Temperature Extremes: The Importance of Horizontal Resolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shields, C. A.; Kiehl, J. T.; Meehl, G. A.

2013-12-01

Understanding Earth's water cycle on a warming planet is of critical importance in society's ability to adapt to climate change. Extreme weather events, such as floods, heat waves, and drought will likely change with the water cycle as greenhouse gases continue to rise. Location, duration, and intensity of extreme events can be studied using complex earth system models. Here, we employ the fully coupled Community Earth System Model (CESM1.0) to evaluate extreme event impacts for different possible future forcing scenarios. Simulations applying the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios 2.6 and 8.5 were chosen to bracket the range of model responses. Because extreme weather events happen on a regional scale, there is a tendency to favor using higher resolution models, i.e. models that can represent regional features with greater accuracy. Within the CESM1.0 framework, we evaluate both the standard 1 degree resolution (1 degree atmosphere/land coupled to 1 degree ocean/sea ice), and the higher 0.5 degree resolution version (0.5 degree atmosphere/land coupled to 1 degree ocean/sea ice), focusing on extreme precipitation events, heat waves, and droughts. We analyze a variety of geographical regions, but generally find that benefits from increased horizontal resolution are most significant on the regional scale.

Anticipating Future Extreme Climate Events for Alaska Using Dynamical Downscaling and Quantile Mapping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lader, R.; Walsh, J. E.

2016-12-01

Alaska is projected to experience major changes in extreme climate during the 21st century, due to greenhouse warming and exacerbated by polar amplification, wherein the Arctic is warming at twice the rate compared to the Northern Hemisphere. Given its complex topography, Alaska displays extreme gradients of temperature and precipitation. However, global climate models (GCMs), which typically have a spatial resolution on the order of 100km, struggle to replicate these extremes. To help resolve this issue, this study employs dynamically downscaled regional climate simulations and quantile-mapping methodologies to provide a full suite of daily model variables at 20 km spatial resolution for Alaska, from 1970 to 2100. These data include downscaled products of the: ERA-Interim reanalysis from 1979 to 2015, GFDL-CM3 historical from 1970 to 2005, and GFDL-CM3 RCP 8.5 from 2006 to 2100. Due to the limited nature of long-term observations and high-resolution modeling in Alaska, these data enable a broad expansion of extremes analysis. This study uses these data to highlight a subset of the 27 climate extremes indices, previously defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices, as they pertain to climate change in Alaska. These indices are based on the statistical distributions of daily surface temperature and precipitation and focus on threshold exceedance, and percentiles. For example, the annual number of days with a daily maximum temperature greater than 25°C is anticipated to triple in many locations in Alaska by the end of the century. Climate extremes can also refer to long duration events, such as the record-setting warmth that defined the 2015-16 cold season in Alaska. The downscaled climate model simulations indicate that this past winter will be considered normal by as early as the mid-2040s, if we continue to warm according to the business-as-usual RCP 8.5 emissions scenario. This represents an accelerated warming as compared to projections form the coarse scale GCMs, and this greater rate of change in the downscaled products is noted with other extremes indices as well.

The effect of future reduction in aerosol emissions on climate extremes in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Zhili; Lin, Lei; Yang, Meilin; Xu, Yangyang

2016-11-01

This study investigates the effect of reduced aerosol emissions on projected temperature and precipitation extremes in China during 2031-2050 and 2081-2100 relative to present-day conditions using the daily data output from the Community Earth System Model ensemble simulations under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 with an applied aerosol reduction and RCP8.5 with fixed 2005 aerosol emissions (RCP8.5_FixA) scenarios. The reduced aerosol emissions of RCP8.5 magnify the warming effect due to greenhouse gases (GHG) and lead to significant increases in temperature extremes, such as the maximum of daily maximum temperature (TXx), minimum of daily minimum temperature (TNn), and tropical nights (TR), and precipitation extremes, such as the maximum 5-day precipitation amount, number of heavy precipitation days, and annual total precipitation from days ˃95th percentile, in China. The projected TXx, TNn, and TR averaged over China increase by 1.2 ± 0.2 °C (4.4 ± 0.2 °C), 1.3 ± 0.2 °C (4.8 ± 0.2 °C), and 8.2 ± 1.2 (30.9 ± 1.4) days, respectively, during 2031-2050 (2081-2100) under the RCP8.5_FixA scenario, whereas the corresponding values are 1.6 ± 0.1 °C (5.3 ± 0.2 °C), 1.8 ± 0.2 °C (5.6 ± 0.2 °C), and 11.9 ± 0.9 (38.4 ± 1.0) days under the RCP8.5 scenario. Nationally averaged increases in all of those extreme precipitation indices above due to the aerosol reduction account for more than 30 % of the extreme precipitation increases under the RCP8.5 scenario. Moreover, the aerosol reduction leads to decreases in frost days and consecutive dry days averaged over China. There are great regional differences in changes of climate extremes caused by the aerosol reduction. When normalized by global mean surface temperature changes, aerosols have larger effects on temperature and precipitation extremes over China than GHG.

Extreme Sea Level Rise Event Linked to 2009-10 AMOC Downturn

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yin, J.

2016-02-01

The coastal sea levels along the Northeast Coast of North America show significant year-to-year fluctuations in a general upward trend. Our analysis of long-term tide gauge records along the North American east coast identified an extreme sea-level rise (SLR) event during 2009-2010. Within this relatively brief two-year period, coastal sea levels north of New York City jumped by 100 mm. This magnitude of inter-annual SLR is unprecedented in the century-long tide gauge records, with statistical methods suggesting that it was a 1-in-850 year event. We show that this extreme SLR event was a combined effect of two physical factors. First, it was partly due to an observed 30% downturn of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) during 2009-2010. This AMOC slowdown caused a significant decline of the dynamic sea level gradient across the Gulf Stream and North Atlantic Current, thereby imparting a rise in coastal sea level. The second contributing factor to the extreme SLR event was due to a significant negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index. The associated easterly or northeasterly wind anomalies acted to push ocean waters towards the Northeast Coast through the Ekman transport, resulting in further rise in coastal sea levels. Sea level pressure anomalies also contributed to the extreme SLR event through the inverse barometer effect. To project future extreme sea levels along the east coast of North America during the 21st century, we make use of a suite of climate/Earth system models developed at GFDL and other modeling centers. These models included typical CMIP5-class models, as well as the newer climate models GFDL CM2.5 and CM2.6 with eddying oceans. In response to the increase in greenhouse-gas concentrations, each of these models show a reduction in the AMOC. Given the observed connection between AMOC reduction and extreme coastal sea levels, the models thus project an increase in extreme SLR frequency on interannual time scales along the Northeast Coast of North America.

Tissue expansion in the treatment of giant congenital melanocytic nevi of the upper extremity

PubMed Central

Ma, Tengxiao; Fan, Ke; Li, Lei; Xie, Feng; Li, Hao; Chou, Haiyan; Zhang, Zhengwen

2017-01-01

Abstract The aim of our study was to use tissue expansion for the treatment of giant congenital melanocytic nevi of the upper extremity and examine potential advantages over traditional techniques. There were 3 stages in the treatment of giant congenital melanocytic nevi of the upper extremities using tissue expansion: first, the expander was inserted into the subcutaneous pocket; second, the expander was removed, lesions were excised, and the wound of the upper extremity was placed into the pocket to delay healing; third, the residual lesion was excised and the pedicle was removed. The pedicle flap was then unfolded to resurface the wound. During the period between June 2007 and December 2015, there were 11 patients with giant congenital melanocytic nevi of the upper extremities who underwent reconstruction at our department with skin expansion. Few complications were noted in each stage of treatment. The functional and aesthetic results were observed and discussed in this study. Optimal aesthetic and functional results were obtained using tissue expansion to reconstruct the upper extremities due to the giant congenital melanocytic nevi. PMID:28353563

Characterization of the Martian magnetic topology response to extreme solar transient events with MGS data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, S.; Curry, S.; Mitchell, D. L.; Luhmann, J. G.; Lillis, R. J.; Dong, C.

2017-12-01

Characterizing how the solar cycle affects the physics of the Mars-solar wind interaction can improve our understanding of Mars' atmospheric evolution and the plasma environment at Mars. In particular, solar transient events such as Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections (ICMEs) and Stream Interaction Regions (SIRs) significantly change the solar-wind interaction, including the magnetic topology and ion acceleration. However, both the Mars Express and Mars Atmosphere Volatile EvolutioN (MAVEN) missions have encountered relatively few extreme solar transient events due to the recent low solar activity (2004-2017). In contrast, Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) was operating during a relatively active solar maximum (1999-2003). Based on new results from MAVEN, this study reanalyzes MGS data to better understand how the Martian plasma environment responds to extreme solar events. In particular, we aim to investigate how the magnetic topology during these extreme events differs from the topology during quiet times. We conduct orbit comparisons of the magnetic topology inferred from MGS electron pitch angle distributions during quiet periods and extreme events to determine how the open and closed field patterns respond to extreme events.

Separation of thorium ions from wolframite and scandium concentrates using graphene oxide.

PubMed

Jankovský, Ondřej; Sedmidubský, David; Šimek, Petr; Klímová, Kateřina; Bouša, Daniel; Boothroyd, Chris; Macková, Anna; Sofer, Zdeněk

2015-10-14

The separation of rare metals from the ores and commercially available compounds is an important issue due to the need of their high purity in advanced materials and devices. Important examples of two highly important elements that co-exist in the ores are scandium and thorium. Scandium containing ores and consequently also commercially available scandium compounds often contain traces of thorium which is very difficult to separate. We used graphene oxide for the selective sorption of thorium ions from scandium and thorium mixtures originating from the mined ores as well as from commercially available scandium salts. Our results showed that graphene oxide has an extreme affinity towards thorium ions. After the sorption process the graphene oxide contained over 20 wt% of thorium while the amount of scandium sorbed on GO was very low. This phenomenon of high sorption selectivity of graphene oxide can be applied in industry for the purification of various chemicals containing scandium and for separation of thorium containing mixtures. Alternatively, this methodology can be used for preconcentration of thorium from low-grade ores and its further use in the new generation of nuclear reactors.

Identifying and Clarifying Organizational Values.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Seevers, Brenda S.

2000-01-01

Of the 14 organizational values ranked by a majority of 146 New Mexico Cooperative Extension educators as extremely valued, 9 were extremely evident in organizational policies and procedures. A values audit such as this forms an important initial step in strategic planning. (SK)

A dynamical systems approach to studying midlatitude weather extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Messori, Gabriele; Caballero, Rodrigo; Faranda, Davide

2017-04-01

Extreme weather occurrences carry enormous social and economic costs and routinely garner widespread scientific and media coverage. The ability to predict these events is therefore a topic of crucial importance. Here we propose a novel predictability pathway for extreme events, by building upon recent advances in dynamical systems theory. We show that simple dynamical systems metrics can be used to identify sets of large-scale atmospheric flow patterns with similar spatial structure and temporal evolution on time scales of several days to a week. In regions where these patterns favor extreme weather, they afford a particularly good predictability of the extremes. We specifically test this technique on the atmospheric circulation in the North Atlantic region, where it provides predictability of large-scale wintertime surface temperature extremes in Europe up to 1 week in advance.

Effects of extreme spring temperatures on phenology: a case study from Munich and Ingolstadt

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jochner, Susanne; Menzel, Annette

2010-05-01

Extreme events - e.g. warm spells or heavy precipitation events - are likely to increase in the future both in frequency and intensity. Therefore, research on extreme events gains new importance; also in terms of plant development which is mostly triggered by temperatures. An arising question is how plants respond to an extreme warm spell when following an extreme cold winter season. This situation could be studied in spring 2009 in the greater area of Munich and Ingolstadt by phenological observations of flowering and leaf unfolding of birch (Betula pendula L.) and flowering of horse chestnut (Aesculus hippocastanum L.). The long chilling period of winter 2008 and spring 2009 was followed by an immediate strong forcing of flowering and leaf unfolding, especially for birch. This extreme weather situation diminished the difference between urban and rural dates of onset. Another important fact that could be observed in the proceeding period of December 2008 to April 2009 was the reduced temperature difference among urban and rural sites (urban heat island effect). Long-term observations (1951-2008) of the phenological network of the German Meteorological Service (DWD) were used to identify years with reduced urban-rural differences between onset times in the greater area of Munich in the past. Statistical analyses were conducted in order to answer the question whether the sequence of extreme warm and cold events leads to a decreased difference in phenological onset times or if this behaviour can be attributed to extreme warm springs themselves or to the decreased urban heat island effect which is mostly affected by general atmospheric circulation patterns.

Projected increases in the annual flood pulse of the western Amazon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zulkafli, Zed; Buytaert, Wouter; Manz, Bastian; Veliz Rosas, Claudia; Willems, Patrick; Lavado-Casimiro, Waldo; Guyot, Jean-Loup; Santini, William

2016-04-01

The impact of a changing climate on the Amazon basin is a subject of intensive research due to its rich biodiversity and the significant role of rain forest in carbon cycling. Climate change has also direct hydrological impact, and there have been increasing efforts to understand such dynamics at continental and subregional scales such as the scale of the western Amazon. New projections from the Coupled Model Inter- comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) ensemble indicate consistent climatic warming and increasing seasonality of precipitation in the Peruvian Amazon basin. Here we use a distributed land surface model to quantify the potential impact of this change in the climate on the hydrological regime of the river. Using extremes value analysis, historical and future projections of the annual minimum, mean, and maximum river flows are produced for a range of return periods between 1 and 100 years. We show that the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios of climate change project an increased severity of the wet season flood pulse (7.5% and 12% increases respectively for the 100- year return floods). These findings are in agreement with previously projected increases in high extremes under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) climate projections, and are important to highlight due to the potential consequences on reproductive processes of in-stream species, swamp forest ecology, and socio-economy in the floodplain, amid a growing literature that more strongly emphasises future droughts and their impact on the viability of the rain forest system over the greater Amazonia.

Improving Global Forecast System of extreme precipitation events with regional statistical model: Application of quantile-based probabilistic forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shastri, Hiteshri; Ghosh, Subimal; Karmakar, Subhankar

2017-02-01

Forecasting of extreme precipitation events at a regional scale is of high importance due to their severe impacts on society. The impacts are stronger in urban regions due to high flood potential as well high population density leading to high vulnerability. Although significant scientific improvements took place in the global models for weather forecasting, they are still not adequate at a regional scale (e.g., for an urban region) with high false alarms and low detection. There has been a need to improve the weather forecast skill at a local scale with probabilistic outcome. Here we develop a methodology with quantile regression, where the reliably simulated variables from Global Forecast System are used as predictors and different quantiles of rainfall are generated corresponding to that set of predictors. We apply this method to a flood-prone coastal city of India, Mumbai, which has experienced severe floods in recent years. We find significant improvements in the forecast with high detection and skill scores. We apply the methodology to 10 ensemble members of Global Ensemble Forecast System and find a reduction in ensemble uncertainty of precipitation across realizations with respect to that of original precipitation forecasts. We validate our model for the monsoon season of 2006 and 2007, which are independent of the training/calibration data set used in the study. We find promising results and emphasize to implement such data-driven methods for a better probabilistic forecast at an urban scale primarily for an early flood warning.

Real time video analysis to monitor neonatal medical condition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shirvaikar, Mukul; Paydarfar, David; Indic, Premananda

2017-05-01

One in eight live births in the United States is premature and these infants have complications leading to life threatening events such as apnea (pauses in breathing), bradycardia (slowness of heart) and hypoxia (oxygen desaturation). Infant movement pattern has been hypothesized as an important predictive marker for these life threatening events. Thus estimation of movement along with behavioral states, as a precursor of life threatening events, can be useful for risk stratification of infants as well as for effective management of disease state. However, more important and challenging is the determination of the behavioral state of the infant. This information includes important cues such as sleep position and the status of the eyes, which are important markers for neonatal neurodevelopment state. This paper explores the feasibility of using real time video analysis to monitor the condition of premature infants. The image of the infant can be segmented into regions to localize and focus on specific areas of interest. Analysis of the segmented regions can be performed to identify different parts of the body including the face, arms, legs and torso. This is necessary due to real-time processing speed considerations. Such a monitoring system would be of great benefit as an aide to medical staff in neonatal hospital settings requiring constant surveillance. Any such system would have to satisfy extremely stringent reliability and accuracy requirements, before it can be deployed in a hospital care unit, due to obvious reasons. The effect of lighting conditions and interference will have to be mitigated to achieve such performance.

Tardigrades living in extreme environments have naturally selected prerequisites useful to space conquer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guidetti, Roberto; Tiziana, Altiero; Cesari, Michele; Rizzo, Angela Maria; Bertolani, Roberto; Galletta, Giuseppe; Dalessandro, Maurizio; Rebecchi, Lorena

Extreme habitats are highly selective and can host only living organisms possessing specific adaptations to stressors. Among extreme habitats, space environment has particular charac-teristics of radiations, vacuum, microgravity and temperature, which induce rapid changes in living systems. Consequently, the response of multicellular complex organisms, able to colo-nize extreme environments, to space stresses can give very useful information on the ability to withstand a single stress or stress combinations. This knowledge on changes in living systems in space, with their similarity to the ageing processes, offers the opportunity to improve human life both on Earth and in space. Even though experimentation in space has often been carried out using unicellular organisms, multicellular organisms are very relevant in order to develop the appropriate countermeasures to avoid the risks imposed by environmental space in humans. The little attention received by multicellular organisms is probably due, other than to difficul-ties in the manipulation of biological materials in space, to the presence of only few organisms with the potential to tolerate environmental space stresses. Among them, tardigrades are small invertebrates representing an attractive animal model to study adaptive strategies for surviving extreme environments, including space environment. Tardigrades are little known microscopic aquatic animals (250-800 m in body length) distributed in different environments (from the deep sea to high mountains and deserts all over the world), and frequently inhabiting very unstable and unpredictable habitats (e.g. interstices of mosses, lichens, leaf litter, freshwater ponds, cryoconite holes). Their ability to live in the extreme environments is related to a wide variety of their life histories and adaptive strategies. A widespread and crucial strategy is cryptobiosis, a form of quiescence. It includes strategies such as anhydrobiosis and cryobiosis, characterized by a complete or almost complete metabolic standstill. The ability of tardigrades to colonize terrestrial habitats is linked to their well known ability to enter anhydrobiosis when their habi-tat desiccates. Tardigrades survive dehydration by entering a highly stable state of suspended animation due to complete desiccation (¿ 95Results on tardigrades open a window on the fu-ture perspective in astrobiology and in their applications. The discovery and identification of metabolites naturally synthesized by tardigrades to perform a remarkable protection against the damages to cellular components and DNA due to desiccation, radiation, microgravity and oxidation stresses, will be used to define the countermeasures to protect sensitive organisms, including humans, not naturally able to withstand extreme stresses under space conditions, for the future long-term explorations of our solar system, including Mars.

Large-Scale Atmospheric Circulation Patterns Associated with Temperature Extremes as a Basis for Model Evaluation: Methodological Overview and Results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loikith, P. C.; Broccoli, A. J.; Waliser, D. E.; Lintner, B. R.; Neelin, J. D.

2015-12-01

Anomalous large-scale circulation patterns often play a key role in the occurrence of temperature extremes. For example, large-scale circulation can drive horizontal temperature advection or influence local processes that lead to extreme temperatures, such as by inhibiting moderating sea breezes, promoting downslope adiabatic warming, and affecting the development of cloud cover. Additionally, large-scale circulation can influence the shape of temperature distribution tails, with important implications for the magnitude of future changes in extremes. As a result of the prominent role these patterns play in the occurrence and character of extremes, the way in which temperature extremes change in the future will be highly influenced by if and how these patterns change. It is therefore critical to identify and understand the key patterns associated with extremes at local to regional scales in the current climate and to use this foundation as a target for climate model validation. This presentation provides an overview of recent and ongoing work aimed at developing and applying novel approaches to identifying and describing the large-scale circulation patterns associated with temperature extremes in observations and using this foundation to evaluate state-of-the-art global and regional climate models. Emphasis is given to anomalies in sea level pressure and 500 hPa geopotential height over North America using several methods to identify circulation patterns, including self-organizing maps and composite analysis. Overall, evaluation results suggest that models are able to reproduce observed patterns associated with temperature extremes with reasonable fidelity in many cases. Model skill is often highest when and where synoptic-scale processes are the dominant mechanisms for extremes, and lower where sub-grid scale processes (such as those related to topography) are important. Where model skill in reproducing these patterns is high, it can be inferred that extremes are being simulated for plausible physical reasons, boosting confidence in future projections of temperature extremes. Conversely, where model skill is identified to be lower, caution should be exercised in interpreting future projections.

Extreme Magnitude Earthquakes and their Economical Consequences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chavez, M.; Cabrera, E.; Ashworth, M.; Perea, N.; Emerson, D.; Salazar, A.; Moulinec, C.

2011-12-01

The frequency of occurrence of extreme magnitude earthquakes varies from tens to thousands of years, depending on the considered seismotectonic region of the world. However, the human and economic losses when their hypocenters are located in the neighborhood of heavily populated and/or industrialized regions, can be very large, as recently observed for the 1985 Mw 8.01 Michoacan, Mexico and the 2011 Mw 9 Tohoku, Japan, earthquakes. Herewith, a methodology is proposed in order to estimate the probability of exceedance of: the intensities of extreme magnitude earthquakes, PEI and of their direct economical consequences PEDEC. The PEI are obtained by using supercomputing facilities to generate samples of the 3D propagation of extreme earthquake plausible scenarios, and enlarge those samples by Monte Carlo simulation. The PEDEC are computed by using appropriate vulnerability functions combined with the scenario intensity samples, and Monte Carlo simulation. An example of the application of the methodology due to the potential occurrence of extreme Mw 8.5 subduction earthquakes on Mexico City is presented.

The Impact of Air-Sea Interactions on the Representation of Tropical Precipitation Extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hirons, L. C.; Klingaman, N. P.; Woolnough, S. J.

2018-02-01

The impacts of air-sea interactions on the representation of tropical precipitation extremes are investigated using an atmosphere-ocean-mixed-layer coupled model. The coupled model is compared to two atmosphere-only simulations driven by the coupled-model sea-surface temperatures (SSTs): one with 31 day running means (31 d), the other with a repeating mean annual cycle. This allows separation of the effects of interannual SST variability from those of coupled feedbacks on shorter timescales. Crucially, all simulations have a consistent mean state with very small SST biases against present-day climatology. 31d overestimates the frequency, intensity, and persistence of extreme tropical precipitation relative to the coupled model, likely due to excessive SST-forced precipitation variability. This implies that atmosphere-only attribution and time-slice experiments may overestimate the strength and duration of precipitation extremes. In the coupled model, air-sea feedbacks damp extreme precipitation, through negative local thermodynamic feedbacks between convection, surface fluxes, and SST.

Analyzing phenological extreme events over the past five decades in Germany

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schleip, Christoph; Menzel, Annette; Estrella, Nicole; Graeser, Philipp

2010-05-01

As climate change may alter the frequency and intensity of extreme temperatures, we analysed whether warming of the last 5 decades has already changed the statistics of phenological extreme events. In this context, two extreme value statistical concepts are discussed and applied to existing phenological datasets of German Weather Service (DWD) in order to derive probabilities of occurrence for extreme early or late phenological events. We analyse four phenological groups; "begin of flowering, "leaf foliation", "fruit ripening" and "leaf colouring" as well as DWD indicator phases of the "phenological year". Additionally we put an emphasis on a between-species analysis; a comparison of differences in extreme onsets between three common northern conifers. Furthermore we conducted a within-species analysis with different phases of horse chestnut throughout a year. The first statistical approach fits data to a Gaussian model using traditional statistical techniques, and then analyses the extreme quantile. The key point of this approach is the adoption of an appropriate probability density function (PDF) to the observed data and the assessment of the PDF parameters change in time. The full analytical description in terms of the estimated PDF for defined time steps of the observation period allows probability assessments of extreme values for e.g. annual or decadal time steps. Related with this approach is the possibility of counting out the onsets which fall in our defined extreme percentiles. The estimation of the probability of extreme events on the basis of the whole data set is in contrast to analyses with the generalized extreme value distribution (GEV). The second approach deals with the extreme PDFs itself and fits the GEV distribution to annual minima of phenological series to provide useful estimates about return levels. For flowering and leaf unfolding phases exceptionally early extremes are seen since the mid 1980s and especially for the single years 1961, 1990 and 2007 whereas exceptionally extreme late events are seen in the year 1970. Summer phases such as fruit ripening exhibit stronger shifts to early extremes than spring phases. Leaf colouring phases reveal increasing probability for late extremes. The with GEV estimated 100-year event of Picea, Pinus and Larix amount to extreme early events of about -27, -31.48 and -32.79 days, respectively. If we assume non-stationary minimum data we get a more extreme 100-year event of about -35.40 for Picea but associated with wider confidence intervals. The GEV is simply another probability distribution but for purposes of extreme analysis in phenology it should be considered as equally important as (if not more important than) the Gaussian PDF approach.

A global analysis of the asymmetric effect of ENSO on extreme precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Xun; Renard, Benjamin; Thyer, Mark; Westra, Seth; Lang, Michel

2015-11-01

The global and regional influence of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon on extreme precipitation was analyzed using a global database comprising over 7000 high quality observation sites. To better quantify possible changes in relatively rare design-relevant precipitation quantiles (e.g. the 1 in 10 year event), a Bayesian regional extreme value model was used, which employed the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) - a measure of ENSO - as a covariate. Regions found to be influenced by ENSO include parts of North and South America, southern and eastern Asia, South Africa, Australia and Europe. The season experiencing the greatest ENSO effect varies regionally, but in most of the ENSO-affected regions the strongest effect happens in boreal winter, during which time the 10-year precipitation for |SOI| = 20 (corresponding to either a strong El Niño or La Niña episode) can be up to 50% higher or lower than for SOI = 0 (a neutral phase). Importantly, the effect of ENSO on extreme precipitation is asymmetric, with most parts of the world experiencing a significant effect only for a single ENSO phase. This finding has important implications on the current understanding of how ENSO influences extreme precipitation, and will enable a more rigorous theoretical foundation for providing quantitative extreme precipitation intensity predictions at seasonal timescales. We anticipate that incorporating asymmetric impacts of ENSO on extreme precipitation will help lead to better-informed climate-adaptive design of flood-sensitive infrastructure.

Moving in extreme environments: what's extreme and who decides?

PubMed

Cotter, James David; Tipton, Michael J

2014-01-01

Humans work, rest and play in immensely varied extreme environments. The term 'extreme' typically refers to insufficiency or excess of one or more stressors, such as thermal energy or gravity. Individuals' behavioural and physiological capacity to endure and enjoy such environments varies immensely. Adverse effects of acute exposure to these environments are readily identifiable (e.g. heat stroke or bone fracture), whereas adverse effects of chronic exposure (e.g. stress fractures or osteoporosis) may be as important but much less discernable. Modern societies have increasingly sought to protect people from such stressors and, in that way, minimise their adverse effects. Regulations are thus established, and advice is provided on what is 'acceptable' exposure. Examples include work/rest cycles in the heat, hydration regimes, rates of ascent to and duration of stay at altitude and diving depth. While usually valuable and well intentioned, it is important to realise the breadth and importance of limitations associated with such guidelines. Regulations and advisories leave less room for self-determination, learning and perhaps adaptation. Regulations based on stress (e.g. work/rest cycles relative to WBGT) are more practical but less direct than those based on strain (e.g. core temperature), but even the latter can be substantively limited (e.g. by lack of criterion validation and allowance for behavioural regulation in the research on which they are based). Extreme Physiology & Medicine is publishing a series of reviews aimed at critically examining the issues involved with self- versus regulation-controlled human movement acutely and chronically in extreme environments. These papers, arising from a research symposium in 2013, are about the impact of people engaging in such environments and the effect of rules and guidelines on their safety, enjoyment, autonomy and productivity. The reviews will cover occupational heat stress, sporting heat stress, hydration, diving, extreme loading, chronic unloading and high altitude. Ramifications include factors such as health and safety, productivity, enjoyment and autonomy, acute and chronic protection and optimising adaptation.

Minimum important differences for the patient-specific functional scale, 4 region-specific outcome measures, and the numeric pain rating scale.

PubMed

Abbott, J Haxby; Schmitt, John

2014-08-01

Multicenter, prospective, longitudinal cohort study. To investigate the minimum important difference (MID) of the Patient-Specific Functional Scale (PSFS), 4 region-specific outcome measures, and the numeric pain rating scale (NPRS) across 3 levels of patient-perceived global rating of change in a clinical setting. The MID varies depending on the external anchor defining patient-perceived "importance." The MID for the PSFS has not been established across all body regions. One thousand seven hundred eight consecutive patients with musculoskeletal disorders were recruited from 5 physical therapy clinics. The PSFS, NPRS, and 4 region-specific outcome measures-the Oswestry Disability Index, Neck Disability Index, Upper Extremity Functional Index, and Lower Extremity Functional Scale-were assessed at the initial and final physical therapy visits. Global rating of change was assessed at the final visit. MID was calculated for the PSFS and NPRS (overall and for each body region), and for each region-specific outcome measure, across 3 levels of change defined by the global rating of change (small, medium, large change) using receiver operating characteristic curve methodology. The MID for the PSFS (on a scale from 0 to 10) ranged from 1.3 (small change) to 2.3 (medium change) to 2.7 (large change), and was relatively stable across body regions. MIDs for the NPRS (-1.5 to -3.5), Oswestry Disability Index (-12), Neck Disability Index (-14), Upper Extremity Functional Index (6 to 11), and Lower Extremity Functional Scale (9 to 16) are also reported. We reported the MID for small, medium, and large patient-perceived change on the PSFS, NPRS, Oswestry Disability Index, Neck Disability Index, Upper Extremity Functional Index, and Lower Extremity Functional Scale for use in clinical practice and research.

A physiologically based pharmacokinetic model of vitamin D ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

See attached 1. Please explain the nature of the study that resulted in this paper or presentation. This study presents an application of PBPK modeling to describe the formation of Vitamin D3. Recently, there has been a surge of interest in the health benefits of Vitamin D3, from heart health to cancer. Despite its importance, a PBPK model for Vitamin D3 does not exist in the literature. Due to its anti-inflammatory properties, Vitamin D3 is being prescribed to patients suffering diverse chronic illnesses. Because of its importance in several conditions, we thought it was important to understand its metabolic formation from precursors and distribution in the body. Time course data from the literature following the effect of oral supplementation in healthy adults was used to develop the first PBPK model for Vitamin D formation. 2. Why was this study done? The goal of this paper was to develop a PBPK model describing the metabolic formation of Vitamin D (as Vitamin D3) when receiving oral supplementation. In the process of developing the PBPK model, several novel concepts were used. For example, due to the extreme lipophilic nature of this vitamin (derived from cholesterol), partition coefficients were varied as a function of dose and time. Also, the regulation of enzymatic metabolism by its product (Vitamin D) was also examined. The result was a very different approach used, and a PBPK model that describes an essential vitamin in the body. 3. What is t

Effects of game-based virtual reality on health-related quality of life in chronic stroke patients: A randomized, controlled study.

PubMed

Shin, Joon-Ho; Bog Park, Si; Ho Jang, Seong

2015-08-01

In the present study, we aimed to determine whether game-based virtual reality (VR) rehabilitation, combined with occupational therapy (OT), could improve health-related quality of life, depression, and upper extremity function. We recruited 35 patients with chronic hemiparetic stroke, and these participants were randomized into groups that underwent VR rehabilitation plus conventional OT, or the same amount of conventional OT alone, for 20 sessions over 4 weeks. Compared to baseline, the VR rehabilitation plus OT group exhibited significantly improved role limitation due to emotional problems (p=0.047). Compared to baseline, both groups also exhibited significantly improved depression (p=0.017) and upper extremity function (p=0.001), although the inter-group differences were not significant. However, a significant inter-group difference was observed for role limitation due to physical problems (p=0.031). Our results indicate that game-based VR rehabilitation has specific effects on health-related quality of life, depression, and upper extremity function among patients with chronic hemiparetic stroke. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Characteristics and present trends of wave extremes in the Mediterranean Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pino, Cosimo; Lionello, Piero; Galati, Maria Barbara

2010-05-01

Wind generated surface waves are an important factor characterizing marine storminess and the marine environment. This contribution considers characteristics and trends of SWH (Significant Wave Height) extremes (both high and low extremes, such as dead calm duration are analyzed). The data analysis is based on a 44-year long simulation (1958-2001) of the wave field in the Mediterranean Sea. The quality of the model simulation is controlled using satellite data. The results show the different characteristics of the different parts of the basin with the variability being higher in the western (where the highest values are produced) than in the eastern areas of the basin (where absence of wave is a rare condition). In fact, both duration of storms and of dead calm episodes is larger in the east than in the west part of the Mediterranean. The African coast and the southern Ionian Sea are the areas were exceptional values of SWH are expected to occur in correspondence with exceptional meteorological events. Significant trends of storm characteristics are present only in sparse areas and suggest a decrease of both storm intensity and duration (a marginal increase of storm intensity is present in the center of the Mediterranean). The statistics of extremes and high SWH values is substantially steady during the second half of the 20th century. The influence of the large-scale teleconnection patterns (TlcP) that are known to be relevant for the Mediterranean climate on the intensity and spatial distribution of extreme SWH (Significant Wave Height) has been investigated. The analysis was focused on the monthly scale analysing the variability of links along the annual cycle. The considered TlcP are the North Atlantic Oscillation, the East-Atlantic / West-Russian pattern and the Scandinavian pattern and their effect on the intensity and the frequency of high/low SWH conditions. The results show it is difficult to establish a dominant TlcP for SWH extremes, because all 4 patterns considered are important for at least few months in the year and none of them is important for the whole year. High extremes in winter and fall are more influenced by the TlcPs than in other seasons and low extremes.

The complex hybrid origins of the root knot nematodes revealed through comparative genomics

PubMed Central

Kumar, Sujai; Koutsovoulos, Georgios; Blaxter, Mark L.

2014-01-01

Root knot nematodes (RKN) can infect most of the world’s agricultural crop species and are among the most important of all plant pathogens. As yet however we have little understanding of their origins or the genomic basis of their extreme polyphagy. The most damaging pathogens reproduce by obligatory mitotic parthenogenesis and it has been suggested that these species originated from interspecific hybridizations between unknown parental taxa. We have sequenced the genome of the diploid meiotic parthenogen Meloidogyne floridensis, and use a comparative genomic approach to test the hypothesis that this species was involved in the hybrid origin of the tropical mitotic parthenogen Meloidogyne incognita. Phylogenomic analysis of gene families from M. floridensis, M. incognita and an outgroup species Meloidogyne hapla was carried out to trace the evolutionary history of these species’ genomes, and we demonstrate that M. floridensis was one of the parental species in the hybrid origins of M. incognita. Analysis of the M. floridensis genome itself revealed many gene loci present in divergent copies, as they are in M. incognita, indicating that it too had a hybrid origin. The triploid M. incognita is shown to be a complex double-hybrid between M. floridensis and a third, unidentified, parent. The agriculturally important RKN have very complex origins involving the mixing of several parental genomes by hybridization and their extreme polyphagy and success in agricultural environments may be related to this hybridization, producing transgressive variation on which natural selection can act. It is now clear that studying RKN variation via individual marker loci may fail due to the species’ convoluted origins, and multi-species population genomics is essential to understand the hybrid diversity and adaptive variation of this important species complex. This comparative genomic analysis provides a compelling example of the importance and complexity of hybridization in generating animal species diversity more generally. PMID:24860695

Assessing the Impacts of Flooding Caused by Extreme Rainfall Events Through a Combined Geospatial and Numerical Modeling Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Santillan, J. R.; Amora, A. M.; Makinano-Santillan, M.; Marqueso, J. T.; Cutamora, L. C.; Serviano, J. L.; Makinano, R. M.

2016-06-01

In this paper, we present a combined geospatial and two dimensional (2D) flood modeling approach to assess the impacts of flooding due to extreme rainfall events. We developed and implemented this approach to the Tago River Basin in the province of Surigao del Sur in Mindanao, Philippines, an area which suffered great damage due to flooding caused by Tropical Storms Lingling and Jangmi in the year 2014. The geospatial component of the approach involves extraction of several layers of information such as detailed topography/terrain, man-made features (buildings, roads, bridges) from 1-m spatial resolution LiDAR Digital Surface and Terrain Models (DTM/DSMs), and recent land-cover from Landsat 7 ETM+ and Landsat 8 OLI images. We then used these layers as inputs in developing a Hydrologic Engineering Center Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC HMS)-based hydrologic model, and a hydraulic model based on the 2D module of the latest version of HEC River Analysis System (RAS) to dynamically simulate and map the depth and extent of flooding due to extreme rainfall events. The extreme rainfall events used in the simulation represent 6 hypothetical rainfall events with return periods of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, and 100 years. For each event, maximum flood depth maps were generated from the simulations, and these maps were further transformed into hazard maps by categorizing the flood depth into low, medium and high hazard levels. Using both the flood hazard maps and the layers of information extracted from remotely-sensed datasets in spatial overlay analysis, we were then able to estimate and assess the impacts of these flooding events to buildings, roads, bridges and landcover. Results of the assessments revealed increase in number of buildings, roads and bridges; and increase in areas of land-cover exposed to various flood hazards as rainfall events become more extreme. The wealth of information generated from the flood impact assessment using the approach can be very useful to the local government units and the concerned communities within Tago River Basin as an aid in determining in an advance manner all those infrastructures (buildings, roads and bridges) and land-cover that can be affected by different extreme rainfall event flood scenarios.

Overrepresentation of extreme events in decision making reflects rational use of cognitive resources.

PubMed

Lieder, Falk; Griffiths, Thomas L; Hsu, Ming

2018-01-01

People's decisions and judgments are disproportionately swayed by improbable but extreme eventualities, such as terrorism, that come to mind easily. This article explores whether such availability biases can be reconciled with rational information processing by taking into account the fact that decision makers value their time and have limited cognitive resources. Our analysis suggests that to make optimal use of their finite time decision makers should overrepresent the most important potential consequences relative to less important, put potentially more probable, outcomes. To evaluate this account, we derive and test a model we call utility-weighted sampling. Utility-weighted sampling estimates the expected utility of potential actions by simulating their outcomes. Critically, outcomes with more extreme utilities have a higher probability of being simulated. We demonstrate that this model can explain not only people's availability bias in judging the frequency of extreme events but also a wide range of cognitive biases in decisions from experience, decisions from description, and memory recall. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

Antibody-Mediated Extreme Insulin Resistance: A Report of Three Cases.

PubMed

Kim, Han Na; Fesseha, Betiel; Anzaldi, Laura; Tsao, Allison; Galiatsatos, Panagis; Sidhaye, Aniket

2018-01-01

Type 2 diabetes mellitus is characterized by relative insulin deficiency and insulin resistance. Features suggesting severe insulin resistance include acanthosis nigricans, hyperandrogenism, weight loss, and recurrent hospital admissions for diabetic ketoacidosis. In rare circumstances, hyperglycemia persists despite administration of massive doses of insulin. In these cases, it is important to consider autoimmune etiologies for insulin resistance, such as type B insulin resistance and insulin antibody-mediated extreme insulin resistance, which carry high morbidity and mortality if untreated. Encouragingly, immunomodulatory regimens have recently been published that induce remission at high rates. We describe 3 cases of extreme insulin resistance mediated by anti-insulin receptor autoantibodies or insulin autoantibodies. All cases were effectively treated with an immunomodulatory regimen. Although cases of extreme insulin resistance are rare, it is important to be aware of autoimmune causes, recognize suggestive signs and symptoms, and pursue appropriate diagnostic evaluation. Prompt treatment with immunomodulators is key to restoring euglycemia in patients with autoimmune etiologies of insulin resistance. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Projected changes to rain-on-snow events over North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jeong, Dae Il; Sushama, Laxmi

2016-04-01

Rain-on-snow (ROS) events have significant impacts on cold region ecosystems and water-related natural hazards, and therefore it is very important to assess how this hydro-meteorological phenomenon will evolve in a changing climate. This study evaluates the changes in ROS characteristics (i.e., frequency, amounts, and runoff) for the future 2041-2070 period with respect to the current 1976-2005 period over North America using six simulations, based on two Canadian RCMs, driven by two driving GCMs for RCP4.5 and 8.5 emission pathways. Projected changes to extreme runoff caused by the changes of the ROS characteristics are also evaluated. All simulations suggest general increases in ROS days in late autumn, winter, and early spring periods for most Canadian regions and northwestern USA for the future period, due to an increase in rain days in a warmer climate. Increases in the future ROS amounts are projected mainly due to an increase in ROS days, although increases in precipitation intensity also contributes to the future increases. Future ROS runoff is expected to increase more than future ROS amounts during snowmelt months as ROS events usually enhance runoff, given the land state and asociated reduced soil infiltration rate and also due to the faster snowmelt rate occuring during these events. The simulations also show that ROS events usually lead to extreme runoff over most of Canada and north-western and -central USA in the January-May snowmelt months for the current period and these show no significant changes in the future climate. However, the future ROS to total runoff ratio will significantly decrease for western and eastern Canada as well as north-western USA for these months, due to an overall increase of the fraction of direct snowmelt and rainfall generated runoff in a warmer climate. These results indicate the difficulties of flood risk and water resource managements in the future, particularly in Canada and north-western and -central USA, requiring more in depth studies for these regions to facilitate appropriate adaptation measures.

The Equation of State and Optical Conductivity of Warm Dense He and H2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brygoo, Stephanie; Eggert, Jon H.; Loubeyre, Paul; McWilliams, Ryan S.; Hicks, Damien G.; Celliers, Peter M.; Boehly, Tom R.; Jeanloz, Raymond; Collins, Gilbert W.

2007-06-01

The determination of the equations of state of helium and hydrogen at very high density is an important problem at the frontier between condensed matter physics and plasma physics with important implications for planetary physics. Due to the limitations of the conventional techniques for reaching extreme densities(static or single shock compression), there are almost no data for the deep interior states of Jupiter. We present here shock compression measurements of helium and hydrogen, precompressed in diamond anvil cells up to 3ρliquid. We report the shock pressure, density and reflectivity up to 2 Mbar for helium and up to 1 Mbar for hydrogen. The data are compared to equations of state models used for astrophysical applications and to recent first principles calculations. This work was performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) by the University of California, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under Contract No. W-7405-Eng-48.

Oxidation-Induced Degradable Nanogels for Iron Chelation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Zhi; Wang, Yan; Purro, Max; Xiong, May P.

2016-02-01

Iron overload can increase cellular oxidative stress levels due to formation of reactive oxygen species (ROS); untreated, it can be extremely destructive to organs and fatal to patients. Since elevated oxidative stress levels are inherent to the condition in such patients, oxidation-induced degradable nanogels for iron chelation were rationally designed by simultaneously polymerizing oxidation-sensitive host-guest crosslinkers between β-cyclodextrin (β-CD) and ferrocene (Fc) and iron chelating moieties composed of deferoxamine (DFO) into the final gel scaffold in reverse emulsion reaction chambers. UV-Vis absorption and atomic absorption spectroscopy (AAS) was used to verify iron chelating capability of nanogels. These materials can degrade into smaller chelating fragments at rates proportional to the level of oxidative stress present. Conjugating DFO reduces the cytotoxicity of the chelator in the macrophage cells. Importantly, the nanogel can effectively reduce cellular ferritin expression in iron overloaded cells and regulate intracellular iron levels at the same time, which is important for maintaining a homeostatic level of this critical metal in cells.

Advanced CD-SEM solution for edge placement error characterization of BEOL pitch 32nm metal layers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Charley, A.; Leray, P.; Lorusso, G.; Sutani, T.; Takemasa, Y.

2018-03-01

Metrology plays an important role in edge placement error (EPE) budgeting. Control for multi-patterning applications as new critical distances needs to be measured (edge to edge) and requirements become tighter and tighter in terms of accuracy and precision. In this paper we focus on imec iN7 BEOL platform and particularly on M2 patterning scheme using SAQP + block EUV for a 7.5 track logic design. Being able to characterize block to SAQP edge misplacement is important in a budgeting exercise (1) but is also extremely difficult due to challenging edge detection with CD-SEM (similar materials, thin layers, short distances, 3D features). In this study we develop an advanced solution to measure block to SAQP placement, we characterize it in terms of sensitivity, precision and accuracy through the comparison to reference metrology. In a second phase, the methodology is applied to budget local effects and the results are compared to the characterization of the SAQP and block independently.

A vital sugar code for ricin toxicity.

PubMed

Taubenschmid, Jasmin; Stadlmann, Johannes; Jost, Markus; Klokk, Tove Irene; Rillahan, Cory D; Leibbrandt, Andreas; Mechtler, Karl; Paulson, James C; Jude, Julian; Zuber, Johannes; Sandvig, Kirsten; Elling, Ulrich; Marquardt, Thorsten; Thiel, Christian; Koerner, Christian; Penninger, Josef M

2017-11-01

Ricin is one of the most feared bioweapons in the world due to its extreme toxicity and easy access. Since no antidote exists, it is of paramount importance to identify the pathways underlying ricin toxicity. Here, we demonstrate that the Golgi GDP-fucose transporter Slc35c1 and fucosyltransferase Fut9 are key regulators of ricin toxicity. Genetic and pharmacological inhibition of fucosylation renders diverse cell types resistant to ricin via deregulated intracellular trafficking. Importantly, cells from a patient with SLC35C1 deficiency are also resistant to ricin. Mechanistically, we confirm that reduced fucosylation leads to increased sialylation of Lewis X structures and thus masking of ricin-binding sites. Inactivation of the sialyltransferase responsible for modifications of Lewis X (St3Gal4) increases the sensitivity of cells to ricin, whereas its overexpression renders cells more resistant to the toxin. Thus, we have provided unprecedented insights into an evolutionary conserved modular sugar code that can be manipulated to control ricin toxicity.

A vital sugar code for ricin toxicity

PubMed Central

Taubenschmid, Jasmin; Stadlmann, Johannes; Jost, Markus; Klokk, Tove Irene; Rillahan, Cory D; Leibbrandt, Andreas; Mechtler, Karl; Paulson, James C; Jude, Julian; Zuber, Johannes; Sandvig, Kirsten; Elling, Ulrich; Marquardt, Thorsten; Thiel, Christian; Koerner, Christian; Penninger, Josef M

2017-01-01

Ricin is one of the most feared bioweapons in the world due to its extreme toxicity and easy access. Since no antidote exists, it is of paramount importance to identify the pathways underlying ricin toxicity. Here, we demonstrate that the Golgi GDP-fucose transporter Slc35c1 and fucosyltransferase Fut9 are key regulators of ricin toxicity. Genetic and pharmacological inhibition of fucosylation renders diverse cell types resistant to ricin via deregulated intracellular trafficking. Importantly, cells from a patient with SLC35C1 deficiency are also resistant to ricin. Mechanistically, we confirm that reduced fucosylation leads to increased sialylation of Lewis X structures and thus masking of ricin-binding sites. Inactivation of the sialyltransferase responsible for modifications of Lewis X (St3Gal4) increases the sensitivity of cells to ricin, whereas its overexpression renders cells more resistant to the toxin. Thus, we have provided unprecedented insights into an evolutionary conserved modular sugar code that can be manipulated to control ricin toxicity. PMID:28925387

Genome Editing to Study Ca2+ Homeostasis in Zebrafish Cone Photoreceptors.

PubMed

Brockerhoff, Susan E

2017-01-01

Photoreceptors are specialized sensory neurons with unique biological features. Phototransduction is well understood due in part to the exclusive expression and function of the molecular components of this cascade. Many other processes are less well understood, but also extremely important for understanding photoreceptor function and for treating disease. One example is the role of Ca 2+ in the cell body and overall compartmentalization and regulation of Ca 2+ within the cell. The recent development of CRISPR/Cas9 genome editing techniques has made it possible to rapidly and cheaply alter specific genes. This will help to define the biological function of elusive processes that have been more challenging to study. CRISPR/Cas9 has been optimized in many systems including zebrafish, which already has some distinct advantages for studying photoreceptor biology and function. These new genome editing technologies and the continued use of the zebrafish model system will help advance our understanding of important understudied aspects of photoreceptor biology.

PCR-based Approaches for the Detection of Clinical Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus

PubMed Central

Liu, Ying; Zhang, Jiang; Ji, Yinduo

2016-01-01

Staphylococcus aureus is an important pathogen that can cause a variety of infections, including superficial and systematic infections, in humans and animals. The persistent emergence of multidrug resistant S. aureus, particularly methicillin-resistant S. aureus, has caused dramatically economic burden and concerns in the public health due to limited options of treatment of MRSA infections. In order to make a correct choice of treatment for physicians and understand the prevalence of MRSA, it is extremely critical to precisely and timely diagnose the pathogen that induces a specific infection of patients and to reveal the antibiotic resistant profile of the pathogen. In this review, we outlined different PCR-based approaches that have been successfully utilized for the rapid detection of S. aureus, including MRSA and MSSA, directly from various clinical specimens. The sensitivity and specificity of detections were pointed out. Both advantages and disadvantages of listed approaches were discussed. Importantly, an alternative approach is necessary to further confirm the detection results from the molecular diagnostic assays. PMID:27335617

The Mars In-Situ-Propellant-Production Precursor (MIP) Flight Demonstration

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kaplan, D. I.; Ratliff, J. E.; Baird, R. S.; Sanders, G. B.; Johnson, K. R.; Karlmann, P. B.; Baraona, C. R.; Landis, G. A.; Jenkins, P. P.; Scheiman, D. A.

1999-01-01

Strategic planning for human missions of exploration to Mars has conclusively identified insitu propellant production (ISPP) as an enabling technology. A team of scientists and engineers from NASA's Johnson Space Center, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, and Glenn Research Center is preparing the MARS ISPP PRECURSOR (MIP) Flight Demonstration. The objectives of MIP are to characterize the performance of processes and hardware that are important to ISPP concepts and to demonstrate how these processes and hardware interact with the Mars environment. Operating this hardware in the actual Mars environment is extremely important due to (1) uncertainties in our knowledge of the Mars environment, and (2) conditions that cannot be adequately simulated on Earth. The MIP Flight Demonstration is a payload onboard the MARS SURVEYOR Lander and will be launched in April 2001. MIP will be the first hardware to utilize the indigenous resources of a planet or moon. Its successful operation will pave the way for future robotic and human missions to rely on propellants produced using Martian resources as feedstock.

Oxidation-Induced Degradable Nanogels for Iron Chelation

PubMed Central

Liu, Zhi; Wang, Yan; Purro, Max; Xiong, May P.

2016-01-01

Iron overload can increase cellular oxidative stress levels due to formation of reactive oxygen species (ROS); untreated, it can be extremely destructive to organs and fatal to patients. Since elevated oxidative stress levels are inherent to the condition in such patients, oxidation-induced degradable nanogels for iron chelation were rationally designed by simultaneously polymerizing oxidation-sensitive host-guest crosslinkers between β-cyclodextrin (β-CD) and ferrocene (Fc) and iron chelating moieties composed of deferoxamine (DFO) into the final gel scaffold in reverse emulsion reaction chambers. UV-Vis absorption and atomic absorption spectroscopy (AAS) was used to verify iron chelating capability of nanogels. These materials can degrade into smaller chelating fragments at rates proportional to the level of oxidative stress present. Conjugating DFO reduces the cytotoxicity of the chelator in the macrophage cells. Importantly, the nanogel can effectively reduce cellular ferritin expression in iron overloaded cells and regulate intracellular iron levels at the same time, which is important for maintaining a homeostatic level of this critical metal in cells. PMID:26868174