School-Based Obesity-Prevention Policies and Practices and Weight-Control Behaviors among Adolescents.

PubMed

Larson, Nicole; Davey, Cynthia S; Caspi, Caitlin E; Kubik, Martha Y; Nanney, Marilyn S

2017-02-01

The promotion of healthy eating and physical activity within school settings is an important component of population-based strategies to prevent obesity; however, adolescents may be vulnerable to weight-related messages, as rapid development during this life stage often leads to preoccupation with body size and shape. This study examines secular trends in secondary school curricula topics relevant to the prevention of unhealthy weight-control behaviors; describes cross-sectional associations between weight-related curricula content and students' use of weight-control behaviors; and assesses whether implementation of school-based obesity-prevention policies/practices is longitudinally related to students' weight-control behaviors. The Minnesota School Health Profiles and Minnesota Student Survey (grades 9 and 12) data were used along with National Center for Education Statistics data to examine secular trends, cross-sectional associations (n=141 schools), and longitudinal associations (n=42 schools). Students self-reported their height and weight along with past-year use of healthy (eg, exercise), unhealthy (eg, fasting), and extreme (eg, use laxatives) weight-control behaviors. Descriptive statistics, generalized estimating equations, and generalized linear regression models accounting for school-level demographics. There was no observable pattern during the years 2008 to 2014 in the mean number of curricula topics addressing unhealthy weight-control behaviors, despite an increase in the prevalence of curricula addressing acceptance of body-size differences. Including three vs fewer weight-control topics and specifically including the topic of eating disorders in the curricula was related to a lower school-level percent of students using any extreme weight-control behaviors. In contrast, an overall measure of implementing school-based obesity-prevention policies/practices (eg, prohibited advertising) was unrelated to use of unhealthy or extreme behaviors. Results suggest obesity-prevention policies/practices do not have unintended consequences for student weight-control behaviors and support the importance of school-based health education as part of efforts to prevent unhealthy behaviors. Copyright © 2017 Academy of Nutrition and Dietetics. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

School-based obesity prevention policies and practices and weight-control behaviors among adolescents

PubMed Central

Davey, Cynthia S.; Caspi, Caitlin E.; Kubik, Martha Y.; Nanney, Marilyn S.

2016-01-01

Background The promotion of healthy eating and physical activity within school settings is an important component of population-based strategies to prevent obesity; however, adolescents may be vulnerable to weight-related messages as rapid development during this lifestage often leads to preoccupation with body size and shape. Objective This study (1) examines secular trends in secondary school curricula topics relevant to the prevention of unhealthy weight-control behaviors; (2) describes cross-sectional associations between weight-related curricula content and students’ use of weight-control behaviors; and (3) assesses whether implementation of school-based obesity prevention policies/practices are longitudinally related to students’ weight-control behaviors. Design/participants The Minnesota School Health Profiles and Minnesota Student Survey (grades 9 and 12) data were used along with National Center for Education Statistics data to examine secular trends; cross-sectional associations (n=141 schools); and longitudinal associations (n=42 schools). Main Outcome Measures Students self-reported their height and weight along with past-year use of healthy (e.g., exercise), unhealthy (e.g., fasting), and extreme (e.g., use laxatives) weight-control behaviors. Statistical analyses performed Descriptive statistics, generalized estimating equations, and generalized linear regression models accounting for school-level demographics. Results There was no observable pattern over the years 2008 to 2014 in the mean number of curricula topics addressing unhealthy weight-control behaviors despite an increase in the prevalence of curricula addressing acceptance of body size differences. Including three versus fewer weight-control topics and specifically including the topic of eating disorders in the curricula were related to a lower school-level percent of students using any extreme weight-control behaviors. In contrast, an overall measure of implementing school-based obesity prevention policies/practices (e.g., prohibited advertising) was unrelated to use of unhealthy or extreme behaviors. Conclusions Results suggest obesity prevention policies/practices do not have unintended consequences for student weight-control behaviors and support the importance of school-based health education as part of efforts to prevent unhealthy behaviors. PMID:27889315

Changing the hearts and minds of policy makers: an exploratory study associated with the West Virginia Walks campaign.

PubMed

Leyden, Kevin M; Reger-Nash, Bill; Bauman, Adrian; Bias, Tom

2008-01-01

To pilot test whether West Virginia Walks changed local policy makers' awareness of walking-related issues. A quasi-experimental design with preintervention and postintervention mail surveys. Morgantown, WV (intervention community), and Huntington, WV (comparison community). One hundred thirty-three and 134 public officials in Morgantown and 120 and 116 public officials in Huntington at baseline and at follow-up, respectively. An 8-week mass media social ecological campaign designed to encourage moderate-intensity walking among insufficiently active persons aged 40 to 65 years. Policy makers listed three problems they believed needed to be addressed in their community. They then rated the severity of several problems that many communities face using a Likert scale, with 1 representing "not a problem" and 5 representing "an extremely important problem." Independent sample t-tests were used to examine differences in mean responses at baseline and at follow-up. Statistically significant increases in the perceived importance of walking-related issues were observed among policy makers in Morgantown but not in the comparison community. Integrated communitywide health promotion campaigns designed to influence the public can also affect the perceptions of policy makers. Future research should examine this linkage and determine whether resource allocation and policy changes follow such interventions.

Questioning the current public health approach to countering violent extremism.

PubMed

Aggarwal, Neil Krishan

2018-05-11

Since the start of the global War on Terror, governments have used the mental health system for counterintelligence purposes. A recent manifestation of this trend is the call from policymakers and mental health researchers to screen individuals at risk for violent extremism through the public health system. Civil rights organisations have raised alarms that Muslims are being disproportionately referred to law enforcement agencies and that Muslim communities are being selected for surveillance despite government assurances that violent extremism is not exclusive to any ideology. This commentary critically analyzes American policies and calls from mental health professionals to use the public health system for implementing initiatives that counter violent extremism. A close reading of such texts demonstrates a persistent concern with treating communities as vulnerable to extremism, prioritising law enforcement over scientific evidence in crafting policies, and breaking medical confidentiality of patients while not assuring immunity for mental health professionals involved in screening. A genuine engagement with public health provides alternatives that question the assumptions of such policies.

Physician and stakeholder perceptions of conflict of interest policies in oncology.

PubMed

Lockhart, A Craig; Brose, Marcia S; Kim, Edward S; Johnson, David H; Peppercorn, Jeffrey M; Michels, Dina L; Storm, Courtney D; Schuchter, Lynn M; Rathmell, W Kimryn

2013-05-01

The landscape of managing potential conflicts of interest (COIs) has evolved substantially across many disciplines in recent years, but rarely are the issues more intertwined with financial and ethical implications than in the health care setting. Cancer care is a highly technologic arena, with numerous physician-industry interactions. The American Society of Clinical Oncology (ASCO) recognizes the role of a professional organization to facilitate management of these interactions and the need for periodic review of its COI policy (Policy). To gauge the sentiments of ASCO members and nonphysician stakeholders, two surveys were performed. The first asked ASCO members to estimate opinions of the Policy as it relates to presentation of industry-sponsored research. Respondents were classified as consumers or producers of research material based on demographic responses. A similar survey solicited opinions of nonphysician stakeholders, including patients with cancer, survivors, family members, and advocates. The ASCO survey was responded to by 1,967 members (1% of those solicited); 80% were producers, and 20% were consumers. Most respondents (93% of producers; 66% of consumers) reported familiarity with the Policy. Only a small proportion regularly evaluated COIs for presented research. Members favored increased transparency about relationships over restrictions on presentations of research. Stakeholders (n = 264) indicated that disclosure was "very important" to "extremely important" and preferred written disclosure (77%) over other methods. COI policies are an important and relevant topic among physicians and patient advocates. Methods to simplify the disclosure process, improve transparency, and facilitate responsiveness are critical for COI management.

Intensification of hot extremes in the United States

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Diffenbaugh, Noah; Ashfaq, Moetasim

Governments are currently considering policies that will limit greenhouse gas concentrations, including negotiation of an international treaty to replace the expiring Kyoto Protocol. Existing mitigation targets have arisen primarily from political negotiations, and the ability of such policies to avoid dangerous impacts is still uncertain. Using a large suite of climate model experiments, we find that substantial intensification of hot extremes could occur within the next 3 decades, below the 2 C global warming target currently being considered by policy makers. We also find that the intensification of hot extremes is associated with a shift towards more anticyclonic atmospheric circulationmore » during the warm season, along with warm-season drying over much of the U.S. The possibility that intensification of hot extremes could result from relatively small increases in greenhouse gas concentrations suggests that constraining global warming to 2 C may not be sufficient to avoid dangerous climate change.« less

The European Water Framework Directive: Challenges For A New Type of Social and Policy Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pahl-Wostl, C.

Water resources managment is facing increasing uncertainties in all areas. Socio- economic boundary conditions change quickly and require more flexible management strategies. Climate change, for example results in an increase in uncertainties, in par- ticular extreme events. Given the fact that current management practices deal with extreme events by designing the technical systems to manage the most extreme of all cases (e.g. higher dams for the protection against extreme floods, larger water reser- voirs for droughts and to meet daily peak demand) a serious problem is posed for long-term planning and risk management. Engineering planning has perceived the hu- man dimension as exogenous boundary conditions. Legislation focused largely on the environmental and technological dimensions that set limits and prescribe new tech- nologies without taking the importance of institutional change into account. However, technology is only the "hardware" and it is becoming increasingly obvious that the "software", the social dimension, has to become part of planning and management processes. Hence, the inclusion of the human dimension into integrated models and processes will be valuable in supporting the introduction of new elements into plan- ning processes in water resources management. With the European Water Framework Directive environmental policy enters a new era. The traditional approach to solving isolated environmental problems with technological fixes and end-of-pipe solutions has started to shift towards a more thoughtful attitude which involves the development of integrated approaches to problem solving. The WFD introduces the river basin as the management unit, thus following the experience of some European countries (e.g. France) and the example of the management of some international rivers (e.g. the Rhine). Overall the WFD represents a general shift towards a polycentric understand- ing of policy making that requires the involvement of stakeholders as active partic- ipants into the policy process at different levels of societal organization. The WFD requires the inclusion of stakeholders in the process of developing and adopting a river basin management plan. In order to improve stakeholder-based policy design and modeling processes innovation and research is required in linking analytical methods and participatory approaches. Factual knowledge and analytical techniques have to be combined with local knowledge and subjective perceptions of the various stakeholder groups. The talk will summarize current approaches and point out research needs.

How can family policies reconcile fertility and women’s employment? Comparisons between South Korea and Sweden

PubMed Central

LEE, Soomi; DUVANDER, Ann-Zofie; ZARIT, Steven H.

2017-01-01

South Korea has extremely low rates of fertility and labor force participation by women during their childbearing years, whereas Sweden has high rates for both. Variations in family policy models may explain differences in fertility and women’s employment between the two countries. Drawing upon literature that examines the effects of family policies on fertility and women’s employment, this paper compares childcare support for very young children and parental leave policies in South Korea and Sweden. Thereafter, we discuss the importance of providing stronger support for dual-earner rather than single-earner families to reconcile the two objectives of increasing fertility and women’s workforce participation. Specifically, it is critical to: (a) enhance the quantity and quality of childcare services for very young children, (b) achieve gender equality in parental leave policies, and (c) reduce gaps in the accessibility and utilization of family benefits by working parents from different social classes. PMID:28163567

Exploring How Changing Monsoonal Dynamics and Human Pressures Challenge Multi-Reservoir Management of Food-Energy-Water Tradeoffs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quinn, J.; Reed, P. M.; Giuliani, M.; Castelletti, A.; Oyler, J.; Nicholas, R.

2017-12-01

Multi-reservoir systems require robust and adaptive control policies capable of managing evolving hydroclimatic variability and human demands across a wide range of time scales. This is especially true for systems with high intra-annual and inter-annual variability, such as monsoonal river systems that need to buffer against seasonal droughts while also managing extreme floods. Moreover, the timing, intensity, duration, and frequency of these hydrologic extremes may be affected by deeply uncertain changes in socioeconomic and climatic pressures. This study contributes an innovative method for exploring how possible changes in the timing and magnitude of monsoonal seasonal extremes impact the robustness of reservoir operating policies optimized to historical conditions assuming stationarity. We illustrate this analysis on the Red River basin in Vietnam, where reservoirs and dams serve as important sources of hydropower production, irrigable water supply, and flood protection for the capital city of Hanoi. Applying our scenario discovery approach, we find food-energy-water tradeoffs are exacerbated by potential hydrologic shifts, with wetter worlds threatening the ability of operating strategies to manage flood risk and drier worlds threatening their ability to provide sufficient water supply and hydropower production, especially if demands increase. Most notably, though, amplification of the within-year monsoonal cycle and increased inter-annual variability threaten all of the above. These findings highlight the importance of considering changes in both lower order moments of annual streamflow and intra-annual monsoonal behavior when evaluating the robustness of alternative water systems control strategies for managing deeply uncertain futures.

Dental Considerations in a Unified Medical Command

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-03-23

control, taking the Navy Dental Corps back to its pre -1946 5 status. The ADA, through major policies adopted to date, opposes such relationships...future Institute of Surgical Research at Fort Sam Houston with the Army as the executive agent. Dental research is extremely important to support...educations, while contributing to the dental readiness of their respective populations. The Orthodontic program at Wilford Hall is an example of a joint

Changing climate, changing forests: The impacts of climate change on forests of the northeastern United States and eastern Canada

Treesearch

Lindsey Rustad; John Campbell; Jeffrey S. Dukes; Thomas Huntington; Kathy Fallon Lambert; Jacqueline Mohan; Nicholas Rodenhouse

2012-01-01

Decades of study on climatic change and its direct and indirect effects on forest ecosystems provide important insights for forest science, management, and policy. A synthesis of recent research from the northeastern United States and eastern Canada shows that the climate of the region has become warmer and wetter over the past 100 years and that there are more extreme...

Resident use of the Internet, e-mail, and personal electronics in the care of surgical patients.

PubMed

Plant, Mathew A; Fish, Joel S

2015-01-01

The use of smartphones, e-mail, and the Internet has affected virtually all areas of patient care. Current university and hospital policies concerning the use of devices may be incongruent with day-to-day patient care. The goal was to assess the current usage patterns of the Internet, e-mail, and personal electronics for clinical purposes by surgical residents as well as their communication habits and preferences. Also assessed was residents' knowledge regarding the institutional policies surrounding these issues. Surgical residents (n = 294) at a large teaching institution were surveyed regarding their knowledge of university policies as well as daily use of various communication technologies. Communication preferences were determined using theoretical clinical scenarios. Our survey with a response rate of 54.7% (n = 161) revealed that 93.8% of participants indicated daily Internet use for clinical duties. Most respondents (72%) were either completely unaware of the existence of guidelines for its use or aware but had no familiarity with their content. Use of e-mail for clinical duties was common (85%), and 74% of the respondents rated e-mail as "very important" or "extremely important" for patient care. Everyone who responded had a mobile phone with 98.7% being "smartphones," which the majority (82.9%) stated was "very important" or "extremely important" for patient care. Text messaging was the primary communication method for 57.8% of respondents. The traditional paging system was the primary communication method for only 1.3% of respondents and the preferred method for none. Daily use of technology is the norm among residents; however, knowledge of university guidelines was exceedingly low. Residents need better education regarding current guidelines. Current guidelines do not reflect current clinical practice. Hospitals should consider abandoning the traditional paging system and consider facilitating better use of residents' mobile phones.

Canaries in the coal mine: Interpersonal violence, gang violence, and violent extremism through a public health prevention lens.

PubMed

Eisenman, David P; Flavahan, Louise

2017-08-01

This paper asks what programmes and policies for preventing violent extremism (also called 'countering violent extremism', or CVE) can learn from the public health violence prevention field. The general answer is that addressing violent extremism within the wider domain of public health violence prevention connects the effort to a relevant field of research, evidence-based policy and programming, and a broader population reach. This answer is reached by examining conceptual alignments between the two fields at both the case-level and the theoretical level. To address extremist violence within the wider reach of violence prevention, having a shared model is seen as a first step. The World Health Organization uses the social-ecological framework for assessing the risk and protective factors for violence and developing effective public-health based programmes. This study illustrates how this model has been used for gang violence prevention and explores overlaps between gang violence prevention and preventing violent extremism. Finally, it provides policy and programme recommendations to align CVE with public health violence prevention.

Veto player theory and reform making in Western Europe.

PubMed

Angelova, Mariyana; Bäck, Hanna; Müller, Wolfgang C; Strobl, Daniel

2018-05-01

Veto player theory generates predictions about governments' capacity for policy change. Due to the difficulty of identifying significant laws needed to change the policy status quo, evidence about governments' ability to change policy has been mostly provided for a limited number of reforms and single-country studies. To evaluate the predictive power of veto player theory for policy making across time, policy areas and countries, a dataset was gathered that incorporates about 5,600 important government reform measures in the areas of social, labour, economic and taxation policy undertaken in 13 Western European countries from the mid-1980s until the mid-2000s. Veto player theory is applied in a combined model with other central theoretical expectations on policy change derived from political economy (crisis-driven policy change) and partisan theory (ideology-driven policy change). Robust support is found that governments introduce more reform measures when economic conditions are poor and when the government is positioned further away from the policy status quo. No empirical support is found for predictions of veto player theory in its pure form, where no differentiation between government types is made. However, the findings provide support for the veto player theory in the special case of minimal winning cabinets, where the support of all government parties is sufficient (in contrast to minority cabinets) and necessary (in contrast to oversized cabinets) for policy change. In particular, it is found that in minimal winning cabinets the ideological distance between the extreme government parties significantly decreases the government's ability to introduce reforms. These findings improve our understanding of reform making in parliamentary democracies and highlight important issues and open questions for future applications and tests of the veto player theory.

Veto player theory and reform making in Western Europe

PubMed Central

ANGELOVA, MARIYANA; BÄCK, HANNA; MÜLLER, WOLFGANG C.

2017-01-01

Abstract Veto player theory generates predictions about governments’ capacity for policy change. Due to the difficulty of identifying significant laws needed to change the policy status quo, evidence about governments’ ability to change policy has been mostly provided for a limited number of reforms and single‐country studies. To evaluate the predictive power of veto player theory for policy making across time, policy areas and countries, a dataset was gathered that incorporates about 5,600 important government reform measures in the areas of social, labour, economic and taxation policy undertaken in 13 Western European countries from the mid‐1980s until the mid‐2000s. Veto player theory is applied in a combined model with other central theoretical expectations on policy change derived from political economy (crisis‐driven policy change) and partisan theory (ideology‐driven policy change). Robust support is found that governments introduce more reform measures when economic conditions are poor and when the government is positioned further away from the policy status quo. No empirical support is found for predictions of veto player theory in its pure form, where no differentiation between government types is made. However, the findings provide support for the veto player theory in the special case of minimal winning cabinets, where the support of all government parties is sufficient (in contrast to minority cabinets) and necessary (in contrast to oversized cabinets) for policy change. In particular, it is found that in minimal winning cabinets the ideological distance between the extreme government parties significantly decreases the government's ability to introduce reforms. These findings improve our understanding of reform making in parliamentary democracies and highlight important issues and open questions for future applications and tests of the veto player theory. PMID:29695891

Study on the Strategies for the Soil and Water Resource Con-servation of Slopeland in Taiwan in Response to the Extreme Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Wen-Cheng

2014-05-01

Global climate change results in extreme weather, especially ex-treme precipitation in Taiwan. Though the total amount of precipi-tation remains unchanged, the frequency of rainfall return period increases which affects slopeland and causes sediment disaster. In Taiwan, slopeland occupies about 73% of national territory. Under harsh environmental stress, soil and water conservation of slope-land becomes more important. In response to the trends of global-ization impacts of climate change, long term strategic planning be-comes more necessary. This study reviewed international practices and decision making process about soil and water conservation of slopeland; and conducted the compilation and analysis of water and soil conservation related research projects in Taiwan within the past five years. It is necessary for Taiwan to design timely adaptive strategies about conducting the all-inclusive conservation of na-tional territory, management and business operation of watershed based on the existing regulation with the effects of extreme weather induced by climate change and the changes of social-economic en-vironments. In order to realize the policy vision of "Under the premise of multiple uses, operating the sustainable business and management of the water and soil resources in the watershed through territorial planning in response to the climate and so-cial-economic environment change". This study concluded the future tasks for soil and water con-servation: 1.Design and timely amend strategies for soil and wand water conservation in response to extreme weather. 2. Strengthen the planning and operating of the land management and integrated conservation of the water and soil resources of key watershed. 3. Manage and operate the prevention of debris flow disaster and large-scale landslide. 4. Formulate polices, related regulations and assessment indicators of soil and water conservation. 5. Maintain the biodiversity of the slopeland and reduce the ecological footprint. 6. Conduct soil and water conservation research according to the importance and urgency of policies. 7. Implement the international cooperation, technology communication, talent cultivation, and integrated education and promotion.

The Importance of the Nothofagus Forest on Snowmelt Process linked to floods in Mountain Basins of Tierra del Fuego, Argentina as Input for Land Use Policies.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iturraspe, R. J.; Urciuolo, A. B.; Lofiego, R.

2007-05-01

The conception and application of policies and best practices for the appropriate land use from the view point of extreme floods attenuation, must be based on scientist acknowledge of the basin response, reaching each one of the hydrological cycle's components. That condition is necessary as a start point for an integrated intersectoral management of water and forest resources at the basin scale, especially when forest logging or forest urbanization appear as land use alternatives with socioeconomic importance, confronting the natural roll of the forest in the basin. Within this framework, this article analyzes the forest importance on the seasonal snow-pack and snow-melting process in the mountain basin environment of Tierra del Fuego Island, Argentina, where a mixed rain-snow hydrological regimen and a canopy of native Nothofagus forest are basic features considered. Extreme floods events are related to heavy rain and snow-melting combination. In theory, the worst scenario is the exceptional rain occurrence at the moment of the maximum snow storage, air temperature higher than 0ºC in the whole basin, and previous wet conditions. On this scenario we analyze aspects that indicate forest influences on the snow pack distribution and evolution which are favorable to the attenuation of the intensity of melting process which are induced by rain and temperate air mass. Results were obtained in the context of the EPIC FORCE (EU) Project.

Trends and Cost-Analysis of Lower Extremity Nerve Injury Using the National Inpatient Sample.

PubMed

Foster, Chase H; Karsy, Michael; Jensen, Michael R; Guan, Jian; Eli, Ilyas; Mahan, Mark A

2018-06-08

Peripheral nerve injuries (PNIs) of the lower extremities have been assessed in small cohort studies; however, the actual incidence, national trends, comorbidities, and cost of care in lower extremity PNI are not defined. Lack of sufficient data limits discussion on national policies, payors, and other aspects fundamental to the delivery of care in the US. To establish estimates of lower extremity PNIs incidence, associated diagnoses, and cost in the US using a comprehensive database with a minimum of a decade of data. The National Inpatient Sample was utilized to evaluate International Classification of Disease codes for specific lower extremity PNIs (9560-9568) between 2001 and 2013. Lower extremity PNIs occurred with a mean incidence of 13.3 cases per million population annually, which declined minimally from 2001 to 2013. The mean ± SEM age was 41.6 ± 0.1 yr; 61.1% of patients were males. Most were admitted via the emergency department (56.0%). PNIs occurred to the sciatic (16.6%), femoral (10.7%), tibial (6.0%), peroneal (33.4%), multiple nerves (1.3%), and other (32.0%). Associated diagnoses included lower extremity fracture (13.4%), complications of care (11.2%), open wounds (10.3%), crush injury (9.7%), and other (7.2%). Associated procedures included tibial fixation (23.3%), closure of skin (20.1%), debridement of open fractures (15.4%), fixation of other bones (13.5%), and wound debridement (14.5%). The mean annual unadjusted compounded growth rate of charges was 8.8%. The mean ± SEM annual charge over the time period was $64 031.20 ± $421.10, which was associated with the number of procedure codes (β = 0.2), length of stay (β = 0.6), and year (β = 0.1) in a multivariable analysis (P = .0001). These data describe associations in the treatment of lower extremity PNIs, which are important for considering national policies, costs, research and the delivery of care.

Comprehensive assessment of dam impacts on flow regimes with consideration of interannual variations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Yongyong; Shao, Quanxi; Zhao, Tongtiegang

2017-09-01

Assessing the impact of human intervention on flow regimes is important in policy making and resource management. Previous impact assessments of dam regulation on flow regimes have focused on long-term average patterns, but interannual variations, which are important characteristics to be considered, have been ignored. In this study, the entire signatures of hydrograph variations of Miyun Reservoir in northern China were described by forty flow regime metrics that incorporate magnitude, variability and frequency, duration, timing, and rate of change for flow events based on a long-term synchronous observation series of inflow and outflow. Principal component analysis and cluster analysis were used to reduce the multidimensionality of the metrics and time and to determine impact patterns and their interannual shifts. Statistically significant driving factors of impact pattern variations were identified. We found that dam regulation resulted in four main impact classes on the flow regimes and that the regulated capacity was interannually attenuated from 1973 to 2010. The impact patterns alternated between the highly regulated class with extremely decreasing flow magnitude, slight variability, and extreme intermittency and the slightly regulated class with extremely increasing flow magnitude, slight variability, and extreme intermittency from 1973 to 1987 and then stabilized in the latter class from 1988 to 2001. After 2001, the pattern gradually changed from the moderately regulated class with moderately decreasing flow magnitude, extreme variability, and extreme intermittency to the slightly regulated class with slightly decreasing flow magnitude, slight variability, and no intermittency. Decreasing precipitation and increasing drought were the primary drivers for the interannual variations of the impact patterns, and inflow variability was the most significant factor affecting the patterns, followed by flow event frequency and duration, magnitude, and timing. This study shows that the use of interannual characteristics can help to gain more insight into the impact of dam regulation on flow regimes and will provide important information to scientifically guide the multi-purpose regulation of dams.

Learning about Environments: The Significance of Primal Landscapes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Measham, Thomas G.

2006-09-01

The way we learn about our environments—be they farms, forests, or tribal lands—has implications for the formulation of environmental policy. This article presents the findings of how residents learned about their environments in two rural case studies conducted in northern Queensland and relates these to the concept of “primal landscapes,” which is concerned with the interaction that occurs between children and the environments in which they mature. Rather than focusing specifically on built environments or natural environments, the article draws on an approach that conceptualizes environment as meaning-laden places in which we live and work, which integrate social, cultural, biological, physical, and economic dimensions. In drawing insights for environmental policy, the article draws attention to the timing of policy interventions, the significance of experiential environmental education, the potential to learn from place-based festivals, and the importance of learning from extreme events such as fires and floods.

Future Projection of Summer Extreme Precipitation from High Resolution Multi-RCMs over East Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Gayoung; Park, Changyong; Cha, Dong-Hyun; Lee, Dong-Kyou; Suh, Myoung-Seok; Ahn, Joong-Bae; Min, Seung-Ki; Hong, Song-You; Kang, Hyun-Suk

2017-04-01

Recently, the frequency and intensity of natural hazards have been increasing due to human-induced climate change. Because most damages of natural hazards over East Asia have been related to extreme precipitation events, it is important to estimate future change in extreme precipitation characteristics caused by climate change. We investigate future changes in extremal values of summer precipitation simulated by five regional climate models participating in the CORDEX-East Asia project (i.e., HadGEM3-RA, RegCM4, MM5, WRF, and GRIMs) over East Asia. 100-year return value calculated from the generalized extreme value (GEV) parameters is analysed as an indicator of extreme intensity. In the future climate, the mean values as well as the extreme values of daily precipitation tend to increase over land region. The increase of 100-year return value can be significantly associated with the changes in the location (intensity) and scale (variability) GEV parameters for extreme precipitation. It is expected that the results of this study can be used as fruitful references when making the policy of disaster management. Acknowledgements The research was supported by the Ministry of Public Safety and Security of Korean government and Development program under grant MPSS-NH-2013-63 and the National Research Foundation of Korea Grant funded by the Ministry of Science, ICT and Future Planning of Korea (NRF-2016M3C4A7952637) for its support and assistant in completion of the study.

Off-policy reinforcement learning for H∞ control design.

PubMed

Luo, Biao; Wu, Huai-Ning; Huang, Tingwen

2015-01-01

The H∞ control design problem is considered for nonlinear systems with unknown internal system model. It is known that the nonlinear H∞ control problem can be transformed into solving the so-called Hamilton-Jacobi-Isaacs (HJI) equation, which is a nonlinear partial differential equation that is generally impossible to be solved analytically. Even worse, model-based approaches cannot be used for approximately solving HJI equation, when the accurate system model is unavailable or costly to obtain in practice. To overcome these difficulties, an off-policy reinforcement leaning (RL) method is introduced to learn the solution of HJI equation from real system data instead of mathematical system model, and its convergence is proved. In the off-policy RL method, the system data can be generated with arbitrary policies rather than the evaluating policy, which is extremely important and promising for practical systems. For implementation purpose, a neural network (NN)-based actor-critic structure is employed and a least-square NN weight update algorithm is derived based on the method of weighted residuals. Finally, the developed NN-based off-policy RL method is tested on a linear F16 aircraft plant, and further applied to a rotational/translational actuator system.

Assessing policy dialogues and the role of context: Liberian case study before and during the Ebola outbreak.

PubMed

Nabyonga-Orem, Juliet; Gebrikidane, Mesfin; Mwisongo, Aziza

2016-07-18

In the last decade participatory approaches have gained prominence in policy-making, becoming the focus of good policy-making processes. Policy dialogue is recognised as an important aspect of policy-making among several interactive and innovative policy-making models applied in different contexts and sectors. Recently there has been emphasis on the quality of policy dialogue in terms of how it should be conducted to attain participation and inclusiveness. However, there is paucity of evidence on how the context influences policy dialogue, particularly participation of stakeholders. Liberia's context, which is characterised as post-war, highly donor dependent and in recovery from the recent catastrophic Ebola outbreak, provides an opportunity to understand the influence of context on policy dialogue. This was an exploratory study using qualitative methods. Key informant interviews were conducted using an interview guide. A total of 16 interviews were conducted, 12 at the national level and 4 at the sub national level. Data were analysed using inductive thematic content analysis. The respondents felt that the dialogues were a success and involved important stakeholders; however, there were concerns about the improper methodology and facilitation used to conduct them. Opinions among the respondents about the process of generating and selecting the themes for the dialogues were extremely divergent. Both before and during the Ebola outbreak, the context was instrumental in shaping the dialogues according to the issue of focus, requirements for participation and the decisions to be made. Policy dialogues have become a platform for policy discussions and decisions in Liberia. It is a process that is well recognised and appreciated and is highly attributed to the success of the negotiations during the Ebola outbreak. To sustain and strengthen policy dialogues in future, there needs to be proper information sharing through diverse forums and avenues, stakeholders' empowerment and competent facilitation. These will ensure that the process is credible and legitimate.

Linking Resilience and Transformation as Micro- and Macro Adaptation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Friedman, E.; Breitzer, R.; Solecki, W. D.

2017-12-01

The concept of resiliency within climate adaptation planning and practice is widespread, but in some ways it has begun to suffer from its own success. While resiliency provides a valuable frame for understanding the conditions and opportunities for localized responses to increasing climate risks, the concept's ubiquitous use leads to it being applied to often conflicting policy agendas, which can mask or limit the capacity to connect efforts focused on near term risk to longer term and emergent climate threats in communities. These challenges are particularly evident in the context of extreme events and in the post extreme event policy windows. To overcome these issues and take advantage of the post-event policy window, the NOAA RISA Climate Change Risk in the Urban Northeast (CCRUN) project has been developing two specific, "boutique", policy tools. These include the PELT (Post-event learning toolkit) and MART (Macro-adaptation Resilience toolkit) toolkits. Embedded in these toolkits are two approaches to small scale strategies often associated with near term action (i.e., micro-adaptation) and large scale strategies associated with broad longer term needs (i.e., macro-adaptation). In this paper, these two approaches - micro and macro adaptation - are theoretically defined and presented in practice through the beta-testing of the PELT and MART toolkits. Most importantly, we illustrate how the theoretical links between resiliency and transformation can be operationalized through the use of these approaches, and how these approaches can be implemented in everyday risk management practice. We present our work through selected case studies in the Northeast US region, specifically in Jamaica Bay, New York, and Eastwick neighborhood in Philadelphia.

Modeling and mitigating natural hazards: Stationarity is immortal!

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Montanari, Alberto; Koutsoyiannis, Demetris

2014-12-01

Environmental change is a reason of relevant concern as it is occurring at an unprecedented pace and might increase natural hazards. Moreover, it is deemed to imply a reduced representativity of past experience and data on extreme hydroclimatic events. The latter concern has been epitomized by the statement that "stationarity is dead." Setting up policies for mitigating natural hazards, including those triggered by floods and droughts, is an urgent priority in many countries, which implies practical activities of management, engineering design, and construction. These latter necessarily need to be properly informed, and therefore, the research question on the value of past data is extremely important. We herein argue that there are mechanisms in hydrological systems that are time invariant, which may need to be interpreted through data inference. In particular, hydrological predictions are based on assumptions which should include stationarity. In fact, any hydrological model, including deterministic and nonstationary approaches, is affected by uncertainty and therefore should include a random component that is stationary. Given that an unnecessary resort to nonstationarity may imply a reduction of predictive capabilities, a pragmatic approach, based on the exploitation of past experience and data is a necessary prerequisite for setting up mitigation policies for environmental risk.

Climate Change Effects on Respiratory Health: Implications for Nursing.

PubMed

George, Maureen; Bruzzese, Jean-Marie; Matura, Lea Ann

2017-11-01

Greenhouse gases are driving climate change. This article explores the adverse health effects of climate change on a particularly vulnerable population: children and adults with respiratory conditions. This review provides a general overview of the effects of increasing temperatures, extreme weather, desertification, and flooding on asthma, chronic obstructive lung disease, and respiratory infections. We offer suggestions for future research to better understand climate change hazards, policies to support prevention and mitigation efforts targeting climate change, and clinical actions to reduce individual risk. Climate change produces a number of changes to the natural and built environments that may potentially increase respiratory disease prevalence, morbidity, and mortality. Nurses might consider focusing their research efforts on reducing the effects of greenhouse gases and in directing policy to mitigate the harmful effects of climate change. Nurses can also continue to direct educational and clinical actions to reduce risks for all populations, but most importantly, for our most vulnerable groups. While advancements have been made in understanding the impact of climate change on respiratory health, nurses can play an important role in reducing the deleterious effects of climate change. This will require a multipronged approach of research, policy, and clinical action. © 2017 Sigma Theta Tau International.

Daily extreme precipitation indices and their impacts on rice yield—A case study over the tropical island in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Mao-Fen; Luo, Wei; Li, Hailiang; Liu, Enping; Li, Yuping

2018-04-01

Frequent occurrences of extreme precipitation events have significant impacts on agricultural production. Tropical agriculture has been playing an important role in national economy in China. A precise understanding of variability in extreme precipitation indices and their impacts on crop yields are of great value for farmers and policy makers at county level, particularly in tropical China where almost all agriculture is rainfed. This research has studied observed trends in extreme precipitation indices (a total of 10) during 1988-2013 over Hainan island, tropical China. Mann-Kendall nonparametric test was adopted for trend detection and the results showed that most of precipitation indices showed increasing trend. Since rice is the most important staple food in Hainan island, the impacts of extreme precipitation indices on rice yields were also analyzed through simple correlations. In general, the rainy days and rain intensity in late rice growing season showed increasing trend over Hainan island. The rice yield presented ninth-degree polynomial technological trend at all stations and increasing trend for early rice yield. Late rice yield showed a decreasing trend in some parts of Hainan island. Spearman rank correlation coefficient indicated that the correlation was more pronounced between extreme precipitation indices and yields at Haikou site for early rice, and Haikou, Sanya, and Qionghai stations for late rice, respectively. Further results also indicated that there were statistically significant positive trends of R10 and R20 (number of days with precipitation ≥10 mm and precipitation ≥20 mm, respectively) from July to November at Haikou (located in north of Hainan island), and this positive trend may be a disadvantage for late rice yield. The cut-off value of extreme precipitation indices and its correlation with rice yield anomaly indices for Hainan island provided a foundation for vulnerability assessment as well as a contribution to set up contingency program under potential climate change conditions.

Nurse opinions and pulse oximeter saturation target limits for preterm infants.

PubMed

Nghiem, Tuyet-Hang; Hagadorn, James I; Terrin, Norma; Syke, Sally; MacKinnon, Brenda; Cole, Cynthia H

2008-05-01

The objectives of this study were to compare pulse oximeter saturation limits targeted by nurses for extremely preterm infants during routine care with nurse opinions regarding appropriate pulse oximeter saturation limits and with policy-specified pulse oximeter saturation limits and to identify factors that influence pulse oximeter saturation limits targeted by nurses. We surveyed nurses in US NICUs with neonatal-perinatal fellowships in 2004. Data collected included pulse oximeter saturation limits targeted by nurses and by NICU policy when present, nurses' opinions about appropriate pulse oximeter saturation limits, and NICU and nurse characteristics. Factors associated with pulse oximeter saturation limits targeted by nurses were identified with hierarchical linear modeling. Among those eligible, 2805 (45%) nurses in 59 (60%) NICUs responded. Forty (68%) of 59 NICUs had a policy that specified a pulse oximeter saturation target range for extremely preterm infants. Among 1957 nurses at NICUs with policies, 540 (28%) accurately identified the upper and lower limits of their NICU's policy and also targeted these values in practice. NICU-specific SDs for individual nurse target limits were less at NICUs with versus without a policy for both upper and lower limits. Hierarchical linear modeling identified presence of pulse oximeter saturation policy, NICU-specific nurse group opinion, and individual nurse opinion as factors significantly associated with individual pulse oximeter saturation target limits. For each percentage point increase in individual opinion upper limit, the individual target upper limit increased by 0.41 percentage point at NICUs with a policy compared with 0.6 percentage point at NICUs with no policy. Presence of policy-specified pulse oximeter saturation limits, nurse group opinion, and individual nurse opinion were independently associated with individual nurse pulse oximeter saturation target limits during routine care of extremely preterm infants. The presence of a policy reduced the influence of individual nurse opinion on targeted pulse oximeter saturation limits and reduced variation among nurse target limits within NICUs.

Psychological and Physical Impacts of Extreme Events on Older Adults: Implications for Communications.

PubMed

McClelland, Erin; Amlôt, Richard; Rogers, M Brooke; Rubin, G James; Tesh, John; Pearce, Julia M

2017-02-01

In recent years, a series of large-scale, high-profile natural disasters and terrorist attacks have demonstrated the need for thorough and effective disaster preparedness. While these extreme events affect communities and societies as a whole, they also carry specific risks for particular population groups. Crises such as Hurricane Katrina and the 2011 earthquake and tsunami disaster in Japan have illustrated the risk of significant and disproportionate morbidity and mortality among older adults during disasters. Age does not necessarily equate to vulnerability, but many physical and psychological consequences of the aging process can increase the risk of adverse outcomes. As the older population grows, so too does the need to ensure that adequate, practical, and appropriate measures exist to offset the specific risks from extreme events associated with this subpopulation. Effective risk and crisis communication plays a key role in mitigating the extent to which older adults are differentially affected during extreme events. By identifying the specific issues affecting older adults, this review highlights important areas for action for practitioners and policy-makers, particularly in the realm of crisis communication. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2017;11:127-134).

On the evaluation of cultural and environmental public goods, and its implications for social innovation.

PubMed

Graffeo, Michele; Bonini, Nicolao

2013-01-01

Public goods (e.g., parks) and welfare services (e.g., garbage disposal and transportation policies) are extremely important for the citizens' well-being but in the complex modern societies their influence and effectiveness are affected by the citizens' support. For this reason, it is crucial to understand which are the factors that influence the citizens' perception of the benefits, costs, and risks associated to public goods and welfare services. In this chapter, we describe some psychological variables that are relevant for the evaluation process of the public goods, but that are not considered by the standard economic models. At the same time, we show that some variables of central importance for the economic models do not significantly affect the citizens' evaluations. Finally, we discuss the concept of Nudge, a policy-making approach that suggests the use of psychological mechanisms to increase the citizens' support to public provision of welfare services. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

On Welfare and Terror: Social Welfare Policies and Political-Economic Roots of Terrorism

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Burgoon, Brian

2006-01-01

This article argues that social welfare policies may reduce international and domestic terrorism. Social policies likely affect terrorism in offsetting ways but, on balance, should diminish preferences for terrorism by reducing economic insecurity, inequality, poverty, and religious-political extremism. Thus, countries with more generous welfare…

A theoretical framework for the episodic-urban air quality management plan ( e-UAQMP)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gokhale, Sharad; Khare, Mukesh

The present research proposes the local urban air quality management plan which combines two different modelling approaches (hybrid model) and possesses an improved predictive ability including the 'probabilistic exceedances over norms' and their 'frequency of occurrences' and so termed, herein, as episodic-urban air quality management plan ( e-UAQMP). The e-UAQMP deals with the consequences of 'extreme' concentrations of pollutant, mainly occurring at urban 'hotspots' e.g. traffic junctions, intersections and signalized roadways and are also influenced by complexities of traffic generated 'wake' effects. The e-UAQMP (based on probabilistic approach), also acts as an efficient preventive measure to predict the 'probability of exceedances' so as to prepare a successful policy responses in relation to the protection of urban environment as well as disseminating information to its sensitive 'receptors'. The e-UAQMP may be tailored to the requirements of the local area for the policy implementation programmes. The importance of such policy-making framework in the context of current air pollution 'episodes' in urban environments is discussed. The hybrid model that is based on both deterministic and stochastic based approaches predicting the 'average' as well as 'extreme' concentration distribution of air pollutants together in form of probability has been used at two air quality control regions (AQCRs) in the Delhi city, India, in formulating and executing the e-UAQMP— first, the income tax office (ITO), one of the busiest signalized traffic intersection and second, the Sirifort, one of the busiest signalized roadways.

Three decades of high-resolution coastal sea surface temperatures reveal more than warming.

PubMed

Lima, Fernando P; Wethey, David S

2012-02-28

Understanding and forecasting current and future consequences of coastal warming require a fine-scale assessment of the near-shore temperature changes. Here we show that despite the fact that 71% of the world's coastlines are significantly warming, rates of change have been highly heterogeneous both spatially and seasonally. We demonstrate that 46% of the coastlines have experienced a significant decrease in the frequency of extremely cold events, while extremely hot days are becoming more common in 38% of the area. Also, we show that the onset of the warm season is significantly advancing earlier in the year in 36% of the temperate coastal regions. More importantly, it is now possible to analyse local patterns within the global context, which is useful for a broad array of scientific fields, policy makers and general public.

An Urban Resilience to Extreme Weather Events Framework for Development of Post Event Learning and Transformative Adaptation in Cities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Solecki, W. D.; Friedman, E. S.; Breitzer, R.

2016-12-01

Increasingly frequent extreme weather events are becoming an immediate priority for urban coastal practitioners and stakeholders, adding complexity to decisions concerning risk management for short-term action and long-term needs of city climate stakeholders. The conflict between the prioritization of short versus long-term events by decision-makers creates disconnect between climate science and its applications. The Consortium for Climate Risk in the Urban Northeast (CCRUN), a NOAA RISA team, is developing a set of mechanisms to help bridge this gap. The mechanisms are designed to promote the application of climate science on extreme weather events and their aftermath. It is in the post event policy window where significant opportunities for science-policy linkages exist. In particular, CCRUN is interested in producing actionable and useful information for city managers to use in decision-making processes surrounding extreme weather events and climate change. These processes include a sector specific needs assessment survey instrument and two tools for urban coastal practitioners and stakeholders. The tools focus on post event learning and connections between resilience and transformative adaptation. Elements of the two tools are presented. Post extreme event learning supports urban coastal practitioners and decision-makers concerned about maximizing opportunities for knowledge transfer and assimilation, and policy initiation and development following an extreme weather event. For the urban U.S. Northeast, post event learning helps coastal stakeholders build the capacity to adapt to extreme weather events, and inform and develop their planning capacity through analysis of past actions and steps taken in response to Hurricane Sandy. Connecting resilience with transformative adaptation is intended to promote resilience in urban Northeast coastal settings to the long-term negative consequences of extreme weather events. This is done through a knowledge co-production engagement process that links innovative and flexible adaptation pathways that can address requirements for short-term action and long-term needs.

The Mexican experience in monitoring and evaluation of public policies addressing social determinants of health

PubMed Central

Valle, Adolfo Martinez

2016-01-01

Monitoring and evaluation (M&E) have gradually become important and regular components of the policy-making process in Mexico since, and even before, the World Health Organization (WHO) Commission on Social Determinants of Health (CSDH) called for interventions and policies aimed at tackling the social determinants of health (SDH). This paper presents two case studies to show how public policies addressing the SDH have been monitored and evaluated in Mexico using reliable, valid, and complete information, which is not regularly available. Prospera, for example, evaluated programs seeking to improve the living conditions of families in extreme poverty in terms of direct effects on health, nutrition, education and income. Monitoring of Prospera's implementation has also helped policy-makers identify windows of opportunity to improve the design and operation of the program. Seguro Popular has monitored the reduction of health inequalities and inequities evaluated the positive effects of providing financial protection to its target population. Useful and sound evidence of the impact of programs such as Progresa and Seguro Popular plus legal mandates, and a regulatory evaluation agency, the National Council for Social Development Policy Evaluation, have been fundamental to institutionalizing M&E in Mexico. The Mexican experience may provide useful lessons for other countries facing the challenge of institutionalizing the M&E of public policy processes to assess the effects of SDH as recommended by the WHO CSDH. PMID:26928215

The Mexican experience in monitoring and evaluation of public policies addressing social determinants of health.

PubMed

Valle, Adolfo Martinez

2016-01-01

Monitoring and evaluation (M&E) have gradually become important and regular components of the policy-making process in Mexico since, and even before, the World Health Organization (WHO) Commission on Social Determinants of Health (CSDH) called for interventions and policies aimed at tackling the social determinants of health (SDH). This paper presents two case studies to show how public policies addressing the SDH have been monitored and evaluated in Mexico using reliable, valid, and complete information, which is not regularly available. Prospera, for example, evaluated programs seeking to improve the living conditions of families in extreme poverty in terms of direct effects on health, nutrition, education and income. Monitoring of Prospera's implementation has also helped policy-makers identify windows of opportunity to improve the design and operation of the program. Seguro Popular has monitored the reduction of health inequalities and inequities evaluated the positive effects of providing financial protection to its target population. Useful and sound evidence of the impact of programs such as Progresa and Seguro Popular plus legal mandates, and a regulatory evaluation agency, the National Council for Social Development Policy Evaluation, have been fundamental to institutionalizing M&E in Mexico. The Mexican experience may provide useful lessons for other countries facing the challenge of institutionalizing the M&E of public policy processes to assess the effects of SDH as recommended by the WHO CSDH.

Mental health policy in Kenya -an integrated approach to scaling up equitable care for poor populations.

PubMed

Kiima, David; Jenkins, Rachel

2010-06-28

Although most donor and development agency attention is focussed on communicable diseases in Kenya, the importance of non-communicable diseases including mental health and mental illness is increasingly apparent, both in their own right and because of their influence on health, education and social goals. Mental illness is common but the specialist service is extremely sparse and primary care is struggling to cope with major health demands. Non health sectors e.g. education, prisons, police, community development, gender and children, regional administration and local government have significant concerns about mental health, but general health programmes have been surprisingly slow to appreciate the significance of mental health for physical health targets. Despite a people centred post colonial health delivery system, poverty and global social changes have seriously undermined equity. This project sought to meet these challenges, aiming to introduce sustainable mental health policy and implementation across the country, within the context of extremely scarce resources. A multi-faceted and comprehensive programme which combined situation appraisal to inform planning, sustained intersectoral policy dialogue at national and regional level; establishment of a health sector system for coordination, supervision and training of at each level (national, regional, district and primary care); development workshops; production of toolkits, development of guidelines and standards; encouragement of intersectoral liaison at national, regional, district and local levels; public education; and integration of mental health into health management systems. The programme has achieved detailed situation appraisal, epidemiological needs assessment, inclusion of mental health into the health sector reform plans, and into the National Package of Essential Health Interventions, annual operational plans, mental health policy guidelines to accompany the general health policy, tobacco legislation, adaptation of the WHO primary care guidelines for Kenya, primary care training, construction of a quality system of roles and responsibilities, availability of medicines at primary care level, some strengthening of intersectoral liaison with police, prisons and schools, and public education about mental health. The project has demonstrated the importance of using a multi-faceted and comprehensive programme to promote sustainable system change, key elements of which include a focus on the use of rapid appropriate assessment and treatment at primary care level, strengthening the referral system, interministerial and intersectoral liaison, rehabilitation, social inclusion, promotion and advocacy to mobilize community engagement.

A review of biophysical and socio-economic effects of unconventional oil and gas extraction - Implications for South Africa.

PubMed

Esterhuyse, Surina; Avenant, Marinda; Redelinghuys, Nola; Kijko, Andrzej; Glazewski, Jan; Plit, Lisa; Kemp, Marthie; Smit, Ansie; Vos, A Tascha; Williamson, Richard

2016-12-15

The impacts associated with unconventional oil and gas (UOG) extraction will be cumulative in nature and will most likely occur on a regional scale, highlighting the importance of using strategic decision-making and management tools. Managing possible impacts responsibly is extremely important in a water scarce country such as South Africa, versus countries where more water may be available for UOG extraction activities. This review article explains the possible biophysical and socio-economic impacts associated with UOG extraction within the South African context and how these complex impacts interlink. Relevant policy and governance frameworks to manage these impacts are also highlighted. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Expert consensus on facilitators and barriers to return-to-work following surgery for non-traumatic upper extremity conditions: a Delphi study.

PubMed

Peters, S E; Johnston, V; Ross, M; Coppieters, M W

2017-02-01

This Delphi study aimed to reach consensus on important facilitators and barriers for return-to-work following surgery for non-traumatic upper extremity conditions. In Round 1, experts ( n = 42) listed 134 factors, which were appraised in Rounds 2 and 3. Consensus (⩾85% agreement) was achieved for 13 facilitators (high motivation to return-to-work; high self-efficacy for return-to-work and recovery; availability of modified/alternative duties; flexible return-to-work arrangements; positive coping skills; limited heavy work exertion; supportive return-to-work policies; supportive supervisor/management; no catastrophic thinking; no fear avoidance to return-to-work; no fear avoidance to pain/activity; return to meaningful work duties; high job satisfaction) and six barriers (mood disorder diagnosis; pain/symptoms at more than one musculoskeletal site; heavy upper extremity exertions at work; lack of flexible return-to-work arrangements; lack of support from supervisor/management; high level of pain catastrophizing). Future prognostic studies are required to validate these biopsychosocial factors to further improve return-to-work outcomes. V.

Dealing with uncertainty: Response-resilient climate change mitigation polices for long-lived and short-lived climate pollutants

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Millar, R.; Boneham, J.; Hepburn, C.; Allen, M. R.

2015-12-01

Climate change solutions are subject to many inherent uncertainties. One of the most important is the uncertainty over the magnitude of the physical response of the climate system to external forcing. The risk of extremely large responses to forcing, so called "fat-tail" outcomes, cannot be ruled out from the latest science and offer profound challenges when creating policies that aim to meet a specific target of global temperature change. This study offers examples of how mitigation policies can be made resilient to this uncertainty in the physical climate response via indexing policies against an attributable anthropogenic warming index (the magnitude of the observed global mean warming that is can be traced to human activities), the AWI, instead of against time directly. We show that indexing policy measures that influence the total stock of carbon in the atmosphere (such as the fraction of extracted carbon sequestered) against the AWI can largely eliminate the risk of missing the specified warming goal due to unexpectedly large climate responses as well as the risk of costly over-mitigation if the physical response turned out to be lower than expected. We offer further examples of how this methodology can be expanded to include short-lived climate pollutants as well as long-lived carbon dioxide. Indexing policies against the AWI can have important consequences for the actions of governments acting to design national climate mitigation policies as well as private sector investors looking to incentivise the transition to a climate-stable economy. We conclude with some thoughts on how these indexes can help focus attention on the long-term perspective that is consistent with the conclusions of the latest climate science on what is required to ultimately stabilise the global climate system.

Food Prices and Climate Extremes: A Model of Global Grain Price Variability with Storage

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Otto, C.; Schewe, J.; Frieler, K.

2015-12-01

Extreme climate events such as droughts, floods, or heat waves affect agricultural production in major cropping regions and therefore impact the world market prices of staple crops. In the last decade, crop prices exhibited two very prominent price peaks in 2007-2008 and 2010-2011, threatening food security especially for poorer countries that are net importers of grain. There is evidence that these spikes in grain prices were at least partly triggered by actual supply shortages and the expectation of bad harvests. However, the response of the market to supply shocks is nonlinear and depends on complex and interlinked processes such as warehousing, speculation, and trade policies. Quantifying the contributions of such different factors to short-term price variability remains difficult, not least because many existing models ignore the role of storage which becomes important on short timescales. This in turn impedes the assessment of future climate change impacts on food prices. Here, we present a simple model of annual world grain prices that integrates grain stocks into the supply and demand functions. This firstly allows us to model explicitly the effect of storage strategies on world market price, and thus, for the first time, to quantify the potential contribution of trade policies to price variability in a simple global framework. Driven only by reported production and by long--term demand trends of the past ca. 40 years, the model reproduces observed variations in both the global storage volume and price of wheat. We demonstrate how recent price peaks can be reproduced by accounting for documented changes in storage strategies and trade policies, contrasting and complementing previous explanations based on different mechanisms such as speculation. Secondly, we show how the integration of storage allows long-term projections of grain price variability under climate change, based on existing crop yield scenarios.

Possible future changes in extreme events over Northern Eurasia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Monier, Erwan; Sokolov, Andrei; Scott, Jeffery

2013-04-01

In this study, we investigate possible future climate change over Northern Eurasia and its impact on extreme events. Northern Eurasia is a major player in the global carbon budget because of boreal forests and peatlands. Circumpolar boreal forests alone contain more than five times the amount of carbon of temperate forests and almost double the amount of carbon of the world's tropical forests. Furthermore, severe permafrost degradation associated with climate change could result in peatlands releasing large amounts of carbon dioxide and methane. Meanwhile, changes in the frequency and magnitude of extreme events, such as extreme precipitation, heat waves or frost days are likely to have substantial impacts on Northern Eurasia ecosystems. For this reason, it is very important to quantify the possible climate change over Northern Eurasia under different emissions scenarios, while accounting for the uncertainty in the climate response and changes in extreme events. For several decades, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change has been investigating uncertainty in climate change using the MIT Integrated Global System Model (IGSM) framework, an integrated assessment model that couples an earth system model of intermediate complexity (with a 2D zonal-mean atmosphere) to a human activity model. In this study, regional change is investigated using the MIT IGSM-CAM framework that links the IGSM to the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Atmosphere Model (CAM). New modules were developed and implemented in CAM to allow climate parameters to be changed to match those of the IGSM. The simulations presented in this paper were carried out for two emission scenarios, a "business as usual" scenario and a 660 ppm of CO2-equivalent stabilization, which are similar to, respectively, the Representative Concentration Pathways RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 scenarios. Values of climate sensitivity and net aerosol forcing used in the simulations within the IGSM-CAM framework provide a good approximation for the median, and the lower and upper bound of 90% probability distribution of 21st century climate change. Five member ensembles were carried out for each choice of parameters using different initial conditions. With these simulations, we investigate the role of emissions scenarios (climate policies), the global climate response (climate sensitivity) and natural variability (initial conditions) on the uncertainty in future climate changes over Northern Eurasia. A particular emphasis is made on future changes in extreme events, including frost days, extreme summer temperature and extreme summer and winter precipitation.

Speaking Back to Educational Policy: Why Social Inclusion Will Not Work for "Disadvantaged" Australian Schools

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Smyth, John

2010-01-01

The Labor government in Australia has recently embarked on an extremely ambitious program of social inclusion for the most marginalized groups in society. Drawing upon the approach of "policy scholarship" this paper examines some federal government "policy texts" to describe what has occurred and asks questions about what is…

The other side of the coin: urban heat islands as shields from extreme cold

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, J.; Bou-Zeid, E.

2017-12-01

Extensive studies focusing on urban heat islands (UHIs) during hot periods create a perception that UHIs are invariably hazardous to human health and the sustainability of cities. Consequently, cities have invested substantial resources to try to mitigate UHIs. These urban policies can have serious repercussions since the health risks associated with cold weather are in fact higher than for heat episodes, yet wintertime UHIs have hardly been explored. We combine ground observations from 12 U.S. cities and high-resolution simulations to show that UHIs not only warm urban areas in the winter, but also further intensify during cold waves by up to 1.32 ± 0.78 oC (mean ± standard deviation) at night. Urban heat islands serve as shelters against extreme colds and provide invaluable benefits of reducing health risks and heating demand. More importantly, our simulations indicate that standard UHI mitigation measures such as green or cool roofs reduce these cold time amenities to different extents. Cities, particularly in cool and cold temperate climates, should hence revisit policies and efforts that are only desgined for hot periods. A paradigm shift is urgently needed to give an equal weight to the wintertime benefits of UHIs in the sustainability and resilience blueprints of cities.

Water and growth: An econometric analysis of climate and policy impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khan, Hassaan Furqan; Morzuch, Bernard J.; Brown, Casey M.

2017-06-01

Water-related hazards such as floods, droughts, and disease cause damage to an economy through the destruction of physical capital including property and infrastructure, the loss of human capital, and the interruption of economic activities, like trade and education. The question for policy makers is whether the impacts of water-related risk accrue to manifest as a drag on economic growth at a scale suggesting policy intervention. In this study, the average drag on economic growth from water-related hazards faced by society at a global level is estimated. We use panel regressions with various specifications to investigate the relationship between economic growth and hydroclimatic variables at the country-river basin level. In doing so, we make use of surface water runoff variables never used before. The analysis of the climate variables shows that water availability and water hazards have significant effects on economic growth, providing further evidence beyond earlier studies finding that precipitation extremes were at least as important or likely more important than temperature effects. We then incorporate a broad set of variables representing the areas of infrastructure, institutions, and information to identify the characteristics of a region that determine its vulnerability to water-related risks. The results identify water scarcity, governance, and agricultural intensity as the most relevant measures affecting vulnerabilities to climate variability effects.

Social determinants of health and health equity policy research: exploring the use, misuse, and nonuse of policy analysis theory.

PubMed

Embrett, Mark G; Randall, G E

2014-05-01

Despite a dramatic growth in SDH/HE (social determinants of health/health equity) public policy research and demonstrated government interest in promoting equity in health policies, health inequities are actually growing among some populations and there is little evidence that "healthy public policies" are being adopted and implemented. Moreover, these issues are typically failing to even reach governments' policy agendas, which is a critical step towards serious debate and the identification of policy options. This systematic review pursues three main objectives. First, is to identify barriers to SDH/HE issues reaching the government policy agenda. Second, to evaluate the characteristics of peer-reviewed research articles that utilize common policy analysis theories. And third, to determine the extent to which the SDH/HE literature utilizes common policy analysis theories. Our systematic review, conducted in June 2012, identified 6200 SDH/HE related articles in the peer-reviewed literature; however, only seven articles explicitly used a commonly recognized policy analysis theory to inform their analysis. Our analysis revealed that the SDH/HE policy literature appears to be focused on advocacy rather than analysis and that the use of policy analysis theory is extremely limited. Our results also suggest that when such theories are incorporated into an analysis they are often not comprehensively employed. We propose explanations for this non-use and misuse of policy analysis theory, and conclude that researchers may have greater influence in helping to get SDH/HE issues onto government policy agendas if they gain a greater understanding of the policy process and the value of incorporating policy analysis theories into their research. Using a policy analysis lens to help identify why healthy public policies are typically not being adopted is an important step towards moving beyond advocacy to understanding and addressing some of the political barriers to reforms. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Temperature and heat wave trends in northwest Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martínez-Austria, Polioptro F.; Bandala, Erick R.; Patiño-Gómez, Carlos

2016-02-01

Increase in temperature extremes is one of the main expected impacts of climate change, as well as one of the first signs of its occurrence. Nevertheless, results emerging from General Circulation Models, while sufficient for large scales, are not enough for forecasting local trends and, hence, the IPCC has called for local studies based on on-site data. Indeed, it is expected that climate extremes will be detected much earlier than changes in climate averages. Heat waves are among the most important and least studied climate extremes, however its occurrence has been only barely studied and even its very definition remains controversial. This paper discusses the observed changes in temperature trends and heat waves in Northwestern Mexico, one of the most vulnerable regions of the country. The climate records in two locations of the region are analyzed, including one of the cities with extreme climate in Mexico, Mexicali City in the state of Baja California and the Yaqui River basin at Sonora State using three different methodologies. Results showed clear trends on temperature increase and occurrence of heat waves in both of the study zones using the three methodologies proposed. As result, some policy making suggestion are included in order to increase the adaptability of the studied regions to climate change, particularly related with heat wave occurrence.

Creating social policy to support women's agency in coercive settings: A case study from Uganda.

PubMed

Burgess, Rochelle; Campbell, Catherine

2016-01-01

Many emphasise the need for policies that support women's agency in highly coercive settings, and the importance of involving target women in public deliberation to inform policy design. The Ugandan Marriage and Divorce Bill seeks to strengthen women's agency in marriage, but has faced many obstacles, including objections from many women themselves in public consultations. We explore key stakeholders' accounts of the difficulties facing the Bill's progress to date, through focus groups with 24 rural and urban men and women, interviews with 14 gender champions in government, non-governmental organisations and legal sectors, and 25 relevant media and radio reports. Thematic analysis revealed an array of representations of the way the Bill's progress was shaped by the public consultation process, the nature of the Ugandan public sphere, the understanding and manipulation of concepts such as 'culture' and 'custom' in public discourse, the impact of economic inequalities on women's understandings of their gendered interests and low women's trust in the law and the political process. We discuss the complexities of involving highly marginalised women in public debates about gender issues and highlight possible implications for conceptualising agency, gender and social change as tools for gender policy and activism in extreme inequality.

A Meeting Place for Policy-Makers and Researchers: The Transatlantic Forum on Inclusive Early Years

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Peeters, Jan; Vandekerckhove, Ankie

2015-01-01

While policy-makers and researchers in the field of early childhood education and care (ECEC) often seem to speak different languages, overwhelming research evidence on how quality ECEC can play a key role in alleviating the effects of disadvantage can be extremely relevant for policy-makers. In this article, we focus on how philanthropic…

Extremism and Neo-Liberal Education Policy: A Contextual Critique of the Trojan Horse Affair in Birmingham Schools

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Arthur, James

2015-01-01

This paper offers new insights into the effects of neo-liberal education policies on some Muslim majority schools in Birmingham. It critically reveals how the implementation of neo-liberal education policies, pursued by both Labour and Conservative Governments, has contributed to the failure of some mechanisms of school leadership and governance.…

Economic policy uncertainty, equity premium and dependence between their quantiles: Evidence from quantile-on-quantile approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raza, Syed Ali; Zaighum, Isma; Shah, Nida

2018-02-01

This paper examines the relationship between economic policy uncertainty and equity premium in G7 countries over a period of the monthly data from January 1989 to December 2015 using a novel technique namely QQ regression proposed by Sim and Zhou (2015). Based on QQ approach, we estimate how the quantiles of the economic policy uncertainty affect the quantiles of the equity premium. Thus, it provides a comprehensive insight into the overall dependence structure between the equity premium and economic policy uncertainty as compared to traditional techniques like OLS or quantile regression. Overall, our empirical evidence suggests the existence of a negative association between equity premium and EPU predominately in all G7 countries, especially in the extreme low and extreme high tails. However, differences exist among countries and across different quantiles of EPU and the equity premium within each country. The existence of this heterogeneity among countries is due to the differences in terms of dependency on economic policy, other stock markets, and the linkages with other country's equity market.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wilcox, Kevin R.; Shi, Zheng; Gherardi, Laureano A.

Climatic changes are altering Earth's hydrological cycle, resulting in altered precipitation amounts, increased interannual variability of precipitation, and more frequent extreme precipitation events. These trends will likely continue into the future, having substantial impacts on net primary productivity (NPP) and associated ecosystem services such as food production and carbon sequestration. Frequently, experimental manipulations of precipitation have linked altered precipitation regimes to changes in NPP. Yet, findings have been diverse and substantial uncertainty still surrounds generalities describing patterns of ecosystem sensitivity to altered precipitation. Additionally, we do not know whether previously observed correlations between NPP and precipitation remain accurate when precipitationmore » changes become extreme. We synthesized results from 83 case studies of experimental precipitation manipulations in grasslands worldwide. Here, we used meta-analytical techniques to search for generalities and asymmetries of aboveground NPP (ANPP) and belowground NPP (BNPP) responses to both the direction and magnitude of precipitation change. Sensitivity (i.e., productivity response standardized by the amount of precipitation change) of BNPP was similar under precipitation additions and reductions, but ANPP was more sensitive to precipitation additions than reductions; this was especially evident in drier ecosystems. Additionally, overall relationships between the magnitude of productivity responses and the magnitude of precipitation change were saturating in form. The saturating form of this relationship was likely driven by ANPP responses to very extreme precipitation increases, although there were limited studies imposing extreme precipitation change, and there was considerable variation among experiments. Finally, this highlights the importance of incorporating gradients of manipulations, ranging from extreme drought to extreme precipitation increases into future climate change experiments. Additionally, policy and land management decisions related to global change scenarios should consider how ANPP and BNPP responses may differ, and that ecosystem responses to extreme events might not be predicted from relationships found under moderate environmental changes.« less

Changes in management policies for extremely preterm births and neonatal outcomes from 2003 to 2012: two population-based studies in ten European regions.

PubMed

Bonet, M; Cuttini, M; Piedvache, A; Boyle, E M; Jarreau, P H; Kollée, L; Maier, R F; Milligan, Dwa; Van Reempts, P; Weber, T; Barros, H; Gadzinowki, J; Draper, E S; Zeitlin, J

2017-09-01

To investigate changes in maternity and neonatal unit policies towards extremely preterm infants (EPTIs) between 2003 and 2012, and concurrent trends in their mortality and morbidity in ten European regions. Population-based cohort studies in 2003 (MOSAIC study) and 2011/2012 (EPICE study) and questionnaires from hospitals. 70 hospitals in ten European regions. Infants born at <27 weeks of gestational age (GA) in hospitals participating in both the MOSAIC and EPICE studies (1240 in 2003, 1293 in 2011/2012). We used McNemar's Chi 2 test, paired t-tests and conditional logistic regression for comparisons over time. Reported policies, mortality and morbidity of EPTIs. The lowest GA at which maternity units reported performing a caesarean section for acute distress of a singleton non-malformed fetus decreased from an average of 24.7 to 24.1 weeks (P < 0.01) when parents were in favour of active management, and 26.1 to 25.2 weeks (P = 0.01) when parents were against. Units reported that neonatologists were called more often for spontaneous deliveries starting at 22 weeks GA in 2012 and more often made decisions about active resuscitation alone, rather than in multidisciplinary teams. In-hospital mortality after live birth for EPTIs decreased from 50% to 42% (P < 0.01). Units reporting more active management in 2012 than 2003 had higher mortality in 2003 (55% versus 43%; P < 0.01) and experienced larger declines (55 to 44%; P < 0.001) than units where policies stayed the same (43 to 37%; P = 0.1). European hospitals reporting changes in management policies experienced larger survival gains for EPTIs. Changes in reported policies for management of extremely preterm births were related to mortality declines. © 2017 Royal College of Obstetricians and Gynaecologists.

Anti-Israel Sentiment Predicts Anti-Semitism in Europe

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kaplan, Edward H.; Small, Charles A.

2006-01-01

In the discourse surrounding the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, extreme criticisms of Israel (e.g., Israel is an apartheid state, the Israel Defense Forces deliberately target Palestinian civilians), coupled with extreme policy proposals (e.g., boycott of Israeli academics and institutions, divest from companies doing business with Israel), have…

Stringent Mitigation Policy Implied By Temperature Impacts on Economic Growth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moore, F.; Turner, D.

2014-12-01

Integrated assessment models (IAMs) compare the costs of greenhouse gas mitigation with damages from climate change in order to evaluate the social welfare implications of climate policy proposals and inform optimal emissions reduction trajectories. However, these models have been criticized for lacking a strong empirical basis for their damage functions, which do little to alter assumptions of sustained GDP growth, even under extreme temperature scenarios. We implement empirical estimates of temperature effects on GDP growth-rates in the Dynamic Integrated Climate and Economy (DICE) model via two pathways, total factor productivity (TFP) growth and capital depreciation. Even under optimistic adaptation assumptions, this damage specification implies that optimal climate policy involves the elimination of emissions in the near future, the stabilization of global temperature change below 2°C, and a social cost of carbon (SCC) an order of magnitude larger than previous estimates. A sensitivity analysis shows that the magnitude of growth effects, the rate of adaptation, and the dynamic interaction between damages from warming and GDP are three critical uncertainties and an important focus for future research.

School Discipline Disproportionality: Culturally Competent Interventions for African American Males

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Simmons-Reed, Evette A.; Cartledge, Gwendolyn

2014-01-01

Exclusionary policies are practiced widely in schools despite being associated with extremely poor outcomes for culturally and linguistically diverse students, particularly African American males with and without disabilities. This article discusses zero tolerance policies, the related research questioning their basic assumptions, and the negative…

Is climate change modifying precipitation extremes?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Montanari, Alberto; Papalexiou, Simon Michael

2016-04-01

The title of the present contribution is a relevant question that is frequently posed to scientists, technicians and managers of local authorities. Although several research efforts were recently dedicated to rainfall observation, analysis and modelling, the above question remains essentially unanswered. The question comes from the awareness that the frequency of floods and the related socio-economic impacts are increasing in many countries, and climate change is deemed to be the main trigger. Indeed, identifying the real reasons for the observed increase of flood risk is necessary in order to plan effective mitigation and adaptation strategies. While mitigation of climate change is an extremely important issue at the global level, at small spatial scales several other triggers may interact with it, therefore requiring different mitigation strategies. Similarly, the responsibilities of administrators are radically different at local and global scales. This talk aims to provide insights and information to address the question expressed by its title. High resolution and long term rainfall data will be presented, as well as an analysis of the frequency of their extremes and its progress in time. The results will provide pragmatic indications for the sake of better planning flood risk mitigation policies.

Extreme Drought Conditions in the Rio Grande/Bravo Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gutiérrez, F.; Dracup, J. A.

2001-12-01

The Treaty of February 3, 1944 entitled "Utilization of Waters of the Colorado and Tijuana Rivers and of the Rio Grande" between the U.S. and Mexico regulates the distribution of flows of the rivers between these two countries. The treaty is based on hydrological data available up to 1944. Using new (historical and paleoclimatological) data, the water balance presented in the Treaty is re-examinated and the 431,721,000 m3/year allocation for USA during "extreme drought conditions" is re-evaluated. The authors define "extreme drought conditions" for this basin and a hydrological drought analysis is carried out using a streamflow simulation model. The analysis is complemented with an analysis of the effects of the El Niño - Southern Oscillation and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation on precipitation and streamflow. The results of this research will be applicable to potential changes in the current water resources management policies on the basin. Given the social, economical and political importance of this basin, the findings of this research potentially will have significant impacts. This research is founded by the NSF fund SAHRA (Science and Technology Center to study and promote the "Sustainability of Water Resources in Semi-Arid Regions" at the University of Arizona).

Heat Waves, Droughts, and Preferences for Environmental Policy

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Owen, Ann L.; Conover, Emily; Videras, Julio; Wu, Stephen

2012-01-01

Using data from a new household survey on environmental attitudes, behaviors, and policy preferences, we find that current weather conditions affect preferences for environmental regulation. Individuals who have recently experienced extreme weather (heat waves or droughts) are more likely to support laws to protect the environment. We find…

U.S. National Security Policy. Revision.

DTIC Science & Technology

1986-03-01

World War II, Sino-American relations have fluctuated from tacit war (in the early 1950s) to a quasi alliance (in the late 1970s). This .I historical ... volatility makes prediction of the long-term future extremely difficult, but the character of Chinese foreign policy in 2010 well may be (after the

Natural Hazards and Climate Change: Making the Link for Policy Makers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Folger, P.

2003-04-01

Debate about global warming in the U.S. Congress often deteriorates when proposals for restricting consumption of fossil fuels, and thus curtailing carbon dioxide emissions, is mentioned. The negative economic implications of curtailing CO2 emissions often stifle Congressional thinking about strategies to deal with climate change. Some policy makers often malign climate change research as irrelevant to their citizens, e.g. why is simulating temperature trends 100 years into the future meaningful to their voters? An alternative approach is to connect climate change with ongoing natural events such as severe weather, drought and floods. These extreme events may or may not be exacerbated by anthropogenic CO2 emissions, but policy makers can debate and legislate approaches to mitigate against natural hazards now without mentioning carbon. What strategy might connect research results on understanding climate change and natural hazards mitigation in their minds? 1. Identify a specific situation where a key legislator's voters are threatened or affected by extreme natural phenomena, 2. Suggest a policy approach that provides protection or relief for those constituents, 3. Help the policy maker vet the idea within and without the scientific community, 4.Turn that idea into legislation and advocate for its passage.

Asymmetric responses of primary productivity to precipitation extremes: A synthesis of grassland precipitation manipulation experiments

DOE PAGES

Wilcox, Kevin R.; Shi, Zheng; Gherardi, Laureano A.; ...

2017-04-02

Climatic changes are altering Earth's hydrological cycle, resulting in altered precipitation amounts, increased interannual variability of precipitation, and more frequent extreme precipitation events. These trends will likely continue into the future, having substantial impacts on net primary productivity (NPP) and associated ecosystem services such as food production and carbon sequestration. Frequently, experimental manipulations of precipitation have linked altered precipitation regimes to changes in NPP. Yet, findings have been diverse and substantial uncertainty still surrounds generalities describing patterns of ecosystem sensitivity to altered precipitation. Additionally, we do not know whether previously observed correlations between NPP and precipitation remain accurate when precipitationmore » changes become extreme. We synthesized results from 83 case studies of experimental precipitation manipulations in grasslands worldwide. Here, we used meta-analytical techniques to search for generalities and asymmetries of aboveground NPP (ANPP) and belowground NPP (BNPP) responses to both the direction and magnitude of precipitation change. Sensitivity (i.e., productivity response standardized by the amount of precipitation change) of BNPP was similar under precipitation additions and reductions, but ANPP was more sensitive to precipitation additions than reductions; this was especially evident in drier ecosystems. Additionally, overall relationships between the magnitude of productivity responses and the magnitude of precipitation change were saturating in form. The saturating form of this relationship was likely driven by ANPP responses to very extreme precipitation increases, although there were limited studies imposing extreme precipitation change, and there was considerable variation among experiments. Finally, this highlights the importance of incorporating gradients of manipulations, ranging from extreme drought to extreme precipitation increases into future climate change experiments. Additionally, policy and land management decisions related to global change scenarios should consider how ANPP and BNPP responses may differ, and that ecosystem responses to extreme events might not be predicted from relationships found under moderate environmental changes.« less

Asymmetric responses of primary productivity to precipitation extremes: A synthesis of grassland precipitation manipulation experiments.

PubMed

Wilcox, Kevin R; Shi, Zheng; Gherardi, Laureano A; Lemoine, Nathan P; Koerner, Sally E; Hoover, David L; Bork, Edward; Byrne, Kerry M; Cahill, James; Collins, Scott L; Evans, Sarah; Gilgen, Anna K; Holub, Petr; Jiang, Lifen; Knapp, Alan K; LeCain, Daniel; Liang, Junyi; Garcia-Palacios, Pablo; Peñuelas, Josep; Pockman, William T; Smith, Melinda D; Sun, Shanghua; White, Shannon R; Yahdjian, Laura; Zhu, Kai; Luo, Yiqi

2017-10-01

Climatic changes are altering Earth's hydrological cycle, resulting in altered precipitation amounts, increased interannual variability of precipitation, and more frequent extreme precipitation events. These trends will likely continue into the future, having substantial impacts on net primary productivity (NPP) and associated ecosystem services such as food production and carbon sequestration. Frequently, experimental manipulations of precipitation have linked altered precipitation regimes to changes in NPP. Yet, findings have been diverse and substantial uncertainty still surrounds generalities describing patterns of ecosystem sensitivity to altered precipitation. Additionally, we do not know whether previously observed correlations between NPP and precipitation remain accurate when precipitation changes become extreme. We synthesized results from 83 case studies of experimental precipitation manipulations in grasslands worldwide. We used meta-analytical techniques to search for generalities and asymmetries of aboveground NPP (ANPP) and belowground NPP (BNPP) responses to both the direction and magnitude of precipitation change. Sensitivity (i.e., productivity response standardized by the amount of precipitation change) of BNPP was similar under precipitation additions and reductions, but ANPP was more sensitive to precipitation additions than reductions; this was especially evident in drier ecosystems. Additionally, overall relationships between the magnitude of productivity responses and the magnitude of precipitation change were saturating in form. The saturating form of this relationship was likely driven by ANPP responses to very extreme precipitation increases, although there were limited studies imposing extreme precipitation change, and there was considerable variation among experiments. This highlights the importance of incorporating gradients of manipulations, ranging from extreme drought to extreme precipitation increases into future climate change experiments. Additionally, policy and land management decisions related to global change scenarios should consider how ANPP and BNPP responses may differ, and that ecosystem responses to extreme events might not be predicted from relationships found under moderate environmental changes. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Countering Violent Extremism Policy in the United States: Are CVE Programs in America Effectively Mitigating the Threat of Homegrown Violent Extremism

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-12-01

anger and violence of those groups improperly judged as “inferior,” especially when a society fails to instill a sense of communal values in the overall...more likely when people experience ‘collective strains’ that are: 1. High in Magnitude with civilians affected; 2. Unjust; 3. Inflicted by... American efforts to counter violent extremism, “if properly implemented, can help sway young people from radicalizing, thereby saving lives and enabling

The contribution of health policy and care to income differences in life expectancy--a register based cohort study.

PubMed

Manderbacka, Kristiina; Peltonen, Riina; Lumme, Sonja; Keskimäki, Ilmo; Tarkiainen, Lasse; Martikainen, Pekka

2013-09-08

Growing mortality differences between socioeconomic groups have been reported in both Finland and elsewhere. While health behaviours and other lifestyle factors are important in contributing to health differences, some researchers have suggested that some of the mortality differences attributable to lifestyle factors could be preventable by health policy measures and that health care may play a role. It has also been suggested that its role is increasing due to better results in disease prevention, improved diagnostic tools and treatment methods. This study aimed to assess the impact of mortality amenable to health policy and health care on increasing income disparities in life expectancy in 1996-2007 in Finland. The study data were based on an 11% random sample of Finnish residents in 1988-2007 obtained from individually linked cause of death and population registries and an oversample of deaths. We examined differences in life expectancy at age 35 (e35) in Finland. We calculated e35 for periods 1996-97 and 2006-07 by income decile and gender. Differences in life expectancies and change in them between the richest and the poorest deciles were decomposed by cause of death group. Overall, the difference in e35 between the extreme income deciles was 11.6 years among men and 4.2 years among women in 2006-07. Together, mortality amenable to health policy and care and ischaemic heart disease mortality contributed up to two thirds to socioeconomic differences. Socioeconomic differences increased from 1996-97 by 3.4 years among men and 1.7 years among women. The main contributor to changes was mortality amenable through health policy measures, mainly alcohol related mortality, but also conditions amenable through health care, ischaemic heart disease among men and other diseases contributed to the increase of the differences. The results underline the importance of active health policy and health care measures in tackling socioeconomic health inequalities.

Perspectives on bay-delta science and policy

USGS Publications Warehouse

Healey, Michael; Dettinger, Michael; Norgaard, Richard

2016-01-01

The State of Bay–Delta Science 2008 highlighted seven emerging perspectives on science and management of the Delta. These perspectives had important effects on policy and legislation concerning management of the Delta ecosystem and water exports. From the collection of papers that make up the State of Bay–Delta Science 2016, we derive another seven perspectives that augment those published in 2008. The new perspectives address nutrient and contaminant concentrations in Delta waters, the failure of the Delta food web to support native species, the role of multiple stressors in driving species toward extinction, and the emerging importance of extreme events in driving change in the ecosystem and the water supply. The scientific advances that underpin these new perspectives were made possible by new measurement and analytic tools. We briefly discuss some of these, including miniaturized acoustic fish tags, sensors for monitoring of water quality, analytic techniques for disaggregating complex contaminant mixtures, remote sensing to assess levee vulnerability, and multidimensional hydrodynamic modeling. Despite these new tools and scientific insights, species conservation objectives for the Delta are not being met. We believe that this lack of progress stems in part from the fact that science and policy do not incorporate sufficiently long-term perspectives. Looking forward half a century was central to the Delta Visioning process, but science and policy have not embraced this conceptual breadth. We are also concerned that protection and enhancement of the unique cultural, recreational, natural resource, and agricultural values of the Delta as an evolving place, as required by the Delta Reform Act, has received no critical study and analysis. Adopting wider and longer science and policy perspectives immediately encourages recognition of the need for evaluation, analysis, and public discourse on novel conservation approaches. These longer and wider perspectives also encourage more attention to the opportunities provided by heavily invaded ecosystems. It is past time to turn scientific and policy attention to these issues.

Travels in Extreme Social Mobility: How First-in-Family Students Find Their Way into and through Medical Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Southgate, Erica; Brosnan, Caragh; Lempp, Heidi; Kelly, Brian; Wright, Sarah; Outram, Sue; Bennett, Anna

2017-01-01

Higher education is understood as essential to enabling social mobility. Research and policy have centred on access to university, but recently attention has turned to the journey of social mobility itself--and its costs. Long-distance or "extreme" social mobility journeys particularly require analysis. This paper examines journeys of…

IPCC Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Field, C. B.; Stocker, T. F.; Barros, V. R.; Qin, D.; Ebi, K. L.; Midgley, P. M.

2011-12-01

The Summary for Policy Makers of the IPCC Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation will be approved by the world governments in November 2011. The focus of the Special Report is on climate change and its role in altering the frequency, severity, and impact of extreme events or disasters, and on the costs of both impacts and the actions taken to prepare for, respond to, and recover from extreme events and disasters. The emphasis is on understanding the factors that make people and infrastructure vulnerable to extreme events, on recent and future changes in the relationship between climate change and extremes, and on managing the risks of disasters over a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. The assessment considers a broad suite of adaptations and explores the limits to adaptation. The assessment was designed to build durable links and foundations for partnerships between the stakeholder communities focused on climate change and those focused on disaster risk reduction. The Special Report begins with material that frames the issues, followed by an assessment of the reasons that communities are vulnerable. Two chapters assess the role of past and future climate change in altering extremes and the impact of these on the physical environment and human systems. Three chapters assess available knowledge on impacts and adaptation, with separate chapters considering the literature, stakeholder relationships, and potential policy tools relevant to the local, national, and international scales. Longer-term components of adaptation to weather and climate extremes and disasters are assessed in the context of moving toward sustainability. The final chapter provides case studies that integrate themes across several chapters or are so unique that they need to be considered separately.

A Comparative Review of Policy and Practice for Education for Sustainable Development/Education for Global Citizenship (ESD/GC) in Teacher Education across the Four Nations of the UK

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bamber, Philip; Bullivant, Andrea; Glover, Alison; King, Betsy; McMcCann, Gerard

2016-01-01

The early 21st century has seen a period of extreme turbulence in education at all levels in the UK. Although education policy was administrated on a territorial basis before 1999, the 1998-1999 devolution settlement has amplified the complexity of education policy and practice across England, Wales, Scotland, and Northern Ireland. Through a…

The Changing Influence of Educational Policy and Race on Metropolitan Inequality, 1970-2010

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Johnson, Odis, Jr.

2017-01-01

Schools do not receive much recognition within urban sociological research for the role they perform in shaping the demographic, structural, and social features of neighborhoods, cities, and metropolitan areas. In contrast, this article links schools, and the racial avoidance that operates through educational policy, to the extreme economic…

Seeing Like PISA: A Cautionary Tale about the Performativity of International Assessments

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gorur, Radhika

2016-01-01

PISA is an extremely influential large-scale assessment, and its "policy lessons" are being incorporated in a range of nations all over the world. In this paper I argue that not only is PISA influencing policies and practices, but also that "seeing like PISA" is becoming a widespread phenomenon. Globally, education…

Disaster Risks Reduction for Extreme Natural Hazards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Plag, H.; Jules-Plag, S.

2013-12-01

Mega disasters associated with extreme natural hazards have the potential to escalate the global sustainability crisis and put us close to the boundaries of the safe operating space for humanity. Floods and droughts are major threats that potentially could reach planetary extent, particularly through secondary economic and social impacts. Earthquakes and tsunamis frequently cause disasters that eventually could exceed the immediate coping capacity of the global economy, particularly since we have built mega cities in hazardous areas that are now ready to be harvested by natural hazards. Unfortunately, the more we learn to cope with the relatively frequent hazards (50 to 100 years events), the less we are worried about the low-probability, high-impact events (a few hundred and more years events). As a consequence, threats from the 500 years flood, drought, volcano eruption are not appropriately accounted for in disaster risk reduction (DRR) discussions. Extreme geohazards have occurred regularly throughout the past, but mostly did not cause major disasters because exposure of human assets to hazards was much lower in the past. The most extreme events that occurred during the last 2,000 years would today cause unparalleled damage on a global scale and could worsen the sustainability crisis. Simulation of these extreme hazards under present conditions can help to assess the disaster risk. Recent extreme earthquakes have illustrated the destruction they can inflict, both directly and indirectly through tsunamis. Large volcano eruptions have the potential to impact climate, anthropogenic infrastructure and resource supplies on global scale. During the last 2,000 years several large volcano eruptions occurred, which under today's conditions are associated with extreme disaster risk. The comparison of earthquakes and volcano eruptions indicates that large volcano eruptions are the low-probability geohazards with potentially the highest impact on our civilization. Integration of these low-probability, high-impact events in DRR requires an approach focused on resilience and antifragility, as well as the ability to cope with, and recover from failure of infrastructure and social systems. Resilience does not primarily result from the robustness of infrastructure but mainly is a function of the social capital. While it is important to understand the hazards (the contribution of geosciences), it is equally important to understand the processes that let us cope with the hazards, or lead to failure (the contribution of social sciences and engineering). For the latter, we need a joint effort of social sciences and engineering and a revised science-policy relationship. Democratizing knowledge about extreme geohazards is very important in order to inform deliberations of DRR through increased resilience and reduced fragility. The current science-society dialog is not fully capable of supporting deliberative governance. Most scientific knowledge is created independent of those who could put it to use, and a transition to co-design and co-development of knowledge involving a broad stakeholder base is necessary for DRR, particularly for extreme events. This transition may have the consequence of more responsibility and even liability for science.

Developing future precipitation events from historic events: An Amsterdam case study.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manola, Iris; van den Hurk, Bart; de Moel, Hans; Aerts, Jeroen

2016-04-01

Due to climate change, the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events is expected to increase. It is therefore of high importance to develop climate change scenarios tailored towards the local and regional needs of policy makers in order to develop efficient adaptation strategies to reduce the risks from extreme weather events. Current approaches to tailor climate scenarios are often not well adopted in hazard management, since average changes in climate are not a main concern to policy makers, and tailoring climate scenarios to simulate future extremes can be complex. Therefore, a new concept has been introduced recently that uses known historic extreme events as a basis, and modifies the observed data for these events so that the outcome shows how the same event would occur in a warmer climate. This concept is introduced as 'Future Weather', and appeals to the experience of stakeholders and users. This research presents a novel method of projecting a future extreme precipitation event, based on a historic event. The selected precipitation event took place over the broader area of Amsterdam, the Netherlands in the summer of 2014, which resulted in blocked highways, disruption of air transportation, flooded buildings and public facilities. An analysis of rain monitoring stations showed that an event of such intensity has a 5 to 15 years return period. The method of projecting a future event follows a non-linear delta transformation that is applied directly on the observed event assuming a warmer climate to produce an "up-scaled" future precipitation event. The delta transformation is based on the observed behaviour of the precipitation intensity as a function of the dew point temperature during summers. The outcome is then compared to a benchmark method using the HARMONIE numerical weather prediction model, where the boundary conditions of the event from the Ensemble Prediction System of ECMWF (ENS) are perturbed to indicate a warmer climate. The two methodologies are statistically compared and evaluated. The comparison between the historic event generated by the model and the observed event will give information on the realism of the model for this event. The comparison between the delta transformation method and the future simulation will provide information on how the dynamics would affect the precipitation field, as compared to the statistical method.

Deterring Violent Extremism in America by Utilizing Good Counter-Radicalization Practices from Abroad: A Policy Perspective

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-03-01

offering rehabilitation programs to former extremists. This thesis provides a way ahead for American policy makers by sharing good practices in each of...and offering training to prevent terrorism from when individuals are young. Understanding that humans are fallible, American policy makers and...in the United Kingdom that provided trained Islamic scholars to offer advice about the true teaching of Islam.102 The hotline “El-Hatef el- Islami’s

Birth of Industry 5.0: Making Sense of Big Data with Artificial Intelligence, "The Internet of Things" and Next-Generation Technology Policy.

PubMed

Özdemir, Vural; Hekim, Nezih

2018-01-01

Driverless cars with artificial intelligence (AI) and automated supermarkets run by collaborative robots (cobots) working without human supervision have sparked off new debates: what will be the impacts of extreme automation, turbocharged by the Internet of Things (IoT), AI, and the Industry 4.0, on Big Data and omics implementation science? The IoT builds on (1) broadband wireless internet connectivity, (2) miniaturized sensors embedded in animate and inanimate objects ranging from the house cat to the milk carton in your smart fridge, and (3) AI and cobots making sense of Big Data collected by sensors. Industry 4.0 is a high-tech strategy for manufacturing automation that employs the IoT, thus creating the Smart Factory. Extreme automation until "everything is connected to everything else" poses, however, vulnerabilities that have been little considered to date. First, highly integrated systems are vulnerable to systemic risks such as total network collapse in the event of failure of one of its parts, for example, by hacking or Internet viruses that can fully invade integrated systems. Second, extreme connectivity creates new social and political power structures. If left unchecked, they might lead to authoritarian governance by one person in total control of network power, directly or through her/his connected surrogates. We propose Industry 5.0 that can democratize knowledge coproduction from Big Data, building on the new concept of symmetrical innovation. Industry 5.0 utilizes IoT, but differs from predecessor automation systems by having three-dimensional (3D) symmetry in innovation ecosystem design: (1) a built-in safe exit strategy in case of demise of hyperconnected entrenched digital knowledge networks. Importantly, such safe exists are orthogonal-in that they allow "digital detox" by employing pathways unrelated/unaffected by automated networks, for example, electronic patient records versus material/article trails on vital medical information; (2) equal emphasis on both acceleration and deceleration of innovation if diminishing returns become apparent; and (3) next generation social science and humanities (SSH) research for global governance of emerging technologies: "Post-ELSI Technology Evaluation Research" (PETER). Importantly, PETER considers the technology opportunity costs, ethics, ethics-of-ethics, framings (epistemology), independence, and reflexivity of SSH research in technology policymaking. Industry 5.0 is poised to harness extreme automation and Big Data with safety, innovative technology policy, and responsible implementation science, enabled by 3D symmetry in innovation ecosystem design.

Meteorological risks are drivers of environmental innovation in agro-ecosystem management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gobin, Anne; Van de Vyver, Hans; Vanwindekens, Frédéric; Planchon, Viviane; Verspecht, Ann; Frutos de Cachorro, Julia; Buysse, Jeroen

2016-04-01

Extreme weather events such as droughts, heat waves and rain storms are projected to increase both in frequency and magnitude with climate change. The research hypothesis of the MERINOVA project is that meteorological risks act as drivers of environmental innovation in agro-ecosystem management which is being tested using a chain of risk approach. The project comprises of five major parts that reflect the chain of risks: the hazard, its impact on different agro-ecosystems, vulnerability, risk management and risk communication. Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) theory was used to model annual maxima of meteorological variables based on a location-, scale- and shape-parameter that determine the center of the distribution, the deviation of the location-parameter and the upper tail decay, respectively. Spatial interpolation of GEV-derived return levels has yielded maps of temperature extremes, precipitation deficits and wet periods. The degree of temporal overlap between extreme weather conditions and sensitive periods in the agro-ecosystem was determined using a bio-physically based modelling framework that couples phenological models, a soil water balance, crop growth and environmental models. 20-year return values for frost, heat stress, drought, waterlogging and field access during different crop stages were related to arable yields. The spatial extent of vulnerability is developed on different layers of spatial information that include inter alia meteorology, soil-landscapes, crop cover and management. The level of vulnerability and resilience of an agro-ecosystem is also determined by risk management. The types of agricultural risk and their relative importance differ across sectors and farm types as elucidated by questionnaires and focus groups. Risk types are distinguished according to production, market, institutional, financial and liability risks. A portfolio of potential strategies was identified at farm, market and policy level. In conclusion, MERINOVA provides for a robust and flexible framework by demonstrating its performance across Belgian agro-ecosystems, and by ensuring its relevance to policy makers and practitioners. A strong expert and end-user network is established to help disseminate and exploit project results to meet user needs.

Exploring the Determinants of the Perceived Risk of Food Allergies in Canada

PubMed Central

Harrington, Daniel W.; Elliott, Susan J.; Clarke, Ann E.; Ben-Shoshan, Moshe; Godefroy, Samuel

2012-01-01

Food allergies are emerging health risks in much of the Western world, and some evidence suggests prevalence is increasing. Despite lacking scientific consensus around prevalence and management, policies and regulations are being implemented in public spaces (e.g., schools). These policies have been criticized as extreme in the literature, in the media, and by the non-allergic population. Backlash appears to be resulting from different perceptions of risk between different groups. This article uses a recently assembled national dataset (n = 3,666) to explore how Canadians perceive the risks of food allergy. Analyses revealed that almost 20% self-report having an allergic person in the household, while the average respondent estimated the prevalence of food allergies in Canada to be 30%. Both of these measures overestimate the true clinically defined prevalence (7.5%), indicating an inflated public understanding of the risks of food allergies. Seventy percent reported food allergies to be substantial risks to the Canadian population. Multivariate logistic regression models revealed important determinants of risk perception including demographic, experience-based, attitudinal, and regional predictors. Results are discussed in terms of understanding emerging health risks in the post-industrial era, and implications for both policy and risk communication. PMID:23172987

Taxing sin and saving lives: Can alcohol taxation reduce female homicides?

PubMed

Durrance, Christine Piette; Golden, Shelley; Perreira, Krista; Cook, Philip

2011-07-01

With costs exceeding $5.8 billion per year, violence against women has significant ramifications for victims, their families, the health care systems that treat them, and the employers who depend on their labor. Prior research has found that alcohol abuse contributes to violence against both men and women, and that stringent alcohol control policies can reduce alcohol consumption and in turn some forms of violence. In this paper, we estimate the direct relationship between an important alcohol control measure, excise taxes, and the most extreme form of violence, homicide. We use female homicide rates as our measure of severe violence, as this measure is consistently and accurately reported across multiple years. Our results provide evidence that increased alcohol taxes reduce alcohol consumption and that reductions in alcohol consumption can reduce femicide. Unfortunately, a direct test of the relationship does not have the power to determine whether alcohol taxes effectively reduce female homicide rates. We conclude that while alcohol taxes have been shown to effectively reduce other forms of violence against women, policy makers may need alternative policy levers to reduce the most severe form of violence against women. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Taxing Sin and Saving Lives: Can Alcohol Taxation Reduce Female Homicides?

PubMed Central

Durrance, Christine Piette; Golden, Shelley; Perreira, Krista; Cook, Philip

2013-01-01

With costs exceeding $5.8 billion per year, violence against women has significant ramifications for victims, their families, the health care systems that treat them, and the employers who depend on their labor. Prior research has found that alcohol abuse contributes to violence against both men and women, and that stringent alcohol control policies can reduce alcohol consumption and in turn some forms of violence. In this paper, we estimate the direct relationship between an important alcohol control measure, excise taxes, and the most extreme form of violence, homicide. We use female homicide rates as our measure of severe violence, as this measure is consistently and accurately reported across multiple years. Our results provide evidence that increased alcohol taxes reduce alcohol consumption and that reductions in alcohol consumption can reduce femicide. Unfortunately, a direct test of the relationship does not have the power to determine whether alcohol taxes effectively reduce female homicide rates. We conclude that while alcohol taxes have been shown to effectively reduce other forms of violence against women, policy makers may need alternative policy levers to reduce the most severe form of violence against women. PMID:21664738

Physician and Stakeholder Perceptions of Conflict of Interest Policies in Oncology

PubMed Central

Lockhart, A. Craig; Brose, Marcia S.; Kim, Edward S.; Johnson, David H.; Peppercorn, Jeffrey M.; Michels, Dina L.; Storm, Courtney D.; Schuchter, Lynn M.; Rathmell, W. Kimryn

2013-01-01

Purpose The landscape of managing potential conflicts of interest (COIs) has evolved substantially across many disciplines in recent years, but rarely are the issues more intertwined with financial and ethical implications than in the health care setting. Cancer care is a highly technologic arena, with numerous physician-industry interactions. The American Society of Clinical Oncology (ASCO) recognizes the role of a professional organization to facilitate management of these interactions and the need for periodic review of its COI policy (Policy). Methods To gauge the sentiments of ASCO members and nonphysician stakeholders, two surveys were performed. The first asked ASCO members to estimate opinions of the Policy as it relates to presentation of industry-sponsored research. Respondents were classified as consumers or producers of research material based on demographic responses. A similar survey solicited opinions of nonphysician stakeholders, including patients with cancer, survivors, family members, and advocates. Results The ASCO survey was responded to by 1,967 members (1% of those solicited); 80% were producers, and 20% were consumers. Most respondents (93% of producers; 66% of consumers) reported familiarity with the Policy. Only a small proportion regularly evaluated COIs for presented research. Members favored increased transparency about relationships over restrictions on presentations of research. Stakeholders (n = 264) indicated that disclosure was “very important” to “extremely important” and preferred written disclosure (77%) over other methods. Conclusion COI policies are an important and relevant topic among physicians and patient advocates. Methods to simplify the disclosure process, improve transparency, and facilitate responsiveness are critical for COI management. PMID:23530092

Lessons from the margins of globalization: appreciating the Cuban health paradox.

PubMed

Spiegel, Jerry M; Yassi, Annalee

2004-01-01

It is widely recognized that Cuba, despite poor economic performance, has achieved and sustained health indices comparable to those in developed countries--the Cuban Paradox. There has been, however, remarkably little scholarship evaluating how this has been accomplished, especially during a period of extreme economic hardship. Cuba's exclusion from the mainstream of "globalization," moreover, allows us to gain insights into the population health impact of policies that have accompanied globalization. Cuba's experience challenges the conventional assumption that generating wealth is the fundamental precondition for improving health. As peoples around the world search for cost-effective ways to improve well-being, they might want to learn how alternative public policy approaches, such as those used in Cuba, may be effective. We therefore reviewed the literature on the health-wealth relationship in this globalizing era; then systematically examined public policy in Cuba, not only for health services (financing, vertical and horizontal integration, prevention and primary-care focus, inter-sectoral linkages, etc.) but for non-medical determinants of health as well. These included education, housing, nutrition, employment, etc. plus the community mobilization and social cohesion that the Cuban system has generated. It appears that the active implementation of public policy affecting a wide variety of health determinants explains the Cuban paradox, and that the international community can learn from Cuba's experience. The prospect for healthy public policy can thus exist within, rather than only on the margins of globalization. The importance of monitoring how Cuba sustains such policies as it faces growing challenges in this globalizing era is increasingly worth observing.

Food security in an era of economic volatility.

PubMed

Naylor, Rosamond L; Falcon, Walter P

2010-01-01

This article analyzes international commodity price movements, assesses food policies in response to price fluctuations, and explores the food security implications of price volatility on low-income groups. It focuses specifically on measurements, causes, and consequences of recent food price trends, variability around those trends, and price spikes. Combining these three components of price dynamics shows that the variation in real prices post-2000 was substantially greater than that in the 1980s and 1990s, and was approximately equal to the extreme volatility in commodity prices that was experienced in the 1970s. Macro policy, exchange rates, and petroleum prices were important determinants of price variability over 2005–2010, highlighting the new linkages between the agriculture-energy and agriculture-finance markets that affect the world food economy today. These linkages contributed in large part to misguided expectations and uncertainty that drove prices to their peak in 2008. The article also argues that there is a long-lasting effect of price spikes on food policy around the world, often resulting in self-sufficiency policies that create even more volatility in international markets. The efforts by governments to stabilize prices frequently contribute to even greater food insecurity among poor households, most of which are in rural areas and survive on the margin of net consumption and net production. Events of 2008—and more recently in 2010—underscore the impact of price variability for food security and the need for refocused policy approaches to prevent and mitigate price spikes.

Youth injury prevention in Canada: use of the Delphi method to develop recommendations.

PubMed

Pike, Ian; Piedt, Shannon; Davison, Colleen M; Russell, Kelly; Macpherson, Alison K; Pickett, William

2015-12-22

The Health Behaviour in School-aged Children Survey is one of very few cross-national health surveys that includes information on injury occurrence and prevention within adolescent populations. A collaboration to develop a Canadian youth injury report using these data resulted in, Injury among Young Canadians: A national study of contextual determinants. The objective of this study was to develop specific evidence-based, policy-oriented recommendations arising from the national report, using a modified-Delphi process with a panel of expert stakeholders. Eight injury prevention experts and a 3-person youth advisory team associated with a Canadian injury prevention organization (Parachute Canada) reviewed, edited and commented on report recommendations through a three-stage iterative modified-Delphi process. From an initial list of 27 draft recommendations, the modified-Delphi process resulted in a final list of 19 specific recommendations, worded to resonate with the group(s) responsible to lead or take the recommended action. Two recommendations were rated as "extremely important" or "very important" by 100 % of the expert panel, two were deleted, a further two recommendations were deleted but the content included as text in the report, and four were merged with other existing recommendations. The modified-Delphi process was an appropriate method to achieve agreement on 19 specific evidence-based, policy-oriented recommendations to complement the national youth injury report. In providing their input, it is noted that the injury stakeholders each acted as individual experts, unattached to any organizational position or policy. These recommendations will require multidisciplinary collaborations in order to support the proposed policy development, additional research, programming and clear decision-making for youth injury prevention.

A megaregion-scale approach for assessing the impacts of climate change and strategic management decisions in the Northeast United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rosenzweig, B.; Vorosmarty, C. J.; Stewart, R. J.; Miara, A.; Lu, X.; Kicklighter, D. W.; Ehsani, N.; Wollheim, W. M.; Melillo, J. M.; Fekete, B. M.; Dilekli, N.; Duchin, F.; Gross, B.; Bhatt, V.

2014-12-01

'Megaregions' have been identified as an important new scale of geography for policy decision-making in the United States. These regions extend beyond local boundaries (ie. cities, states) to incorporate areas with linked economies, infrastructure and land-use patterns and shared climate and environmental systems, such as watersheds. The corridor of densely connected metropolitan areas and surrounding hinterlands along the U.S. east coast from Maine to Virginia is the archetype of this type of unit: The Northeast Megaregion. The Northeast faces a unique set of policy challenges including: projections of a wetter, more extreme climate, aging and underfunded infrastructure and economically distressed rural areas. Megaregion-scale policy efforts such as the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI) and support for a regional food system have been recognized as strategic tools for climate change mitigation and adaptation, but decision-makers have limited information on the potential consequences of these strategies on the complex natural-human system of the Northeast, under various scenarios of global climate change. We have developed a Northeast Regional Earth System Model (NE-RESM) as a framework to provide this type of information. We integrate terrestrial ecosystem, hydrologic, energy system and economic models to investigate scenarios of paired regional socioeconomic pathways and global climate projections. Our initial results suggest that megaregion-scale strategic decisions in the Northeast may have important consequences for both local water management and global climate change mitigation.

Advanced Environment Friendly Nanotechnologies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Figovsky, O.; Beilin, D.; Blank, N.

The economic, security, military and environmental implications of molecular manufacturing are extreme. Unfortunately, conflicting definitions of nanotechnology and blurry distinctions between significantly different fields have complicated the effort to understand those differences and to develop sensible, effective policy for each. The risks of today's nanoscale technologies cannot be treated the same as the risks of longer-term molecular manufacturing. It is a mistake to put them together in one basket for policy consideration — each is important to address, but they offer different problems and will require far different solutions. As used today, the term nanotechnology usually refers to a broad collection of mostly disconnected fields. Essentially, anything sufficiently small and interesting can be called nanotechnology. Much of it is harmless. For the rest, much of the harm is of familiar and limited quality. Molecular manufacturing, by contrast, will bring unfamiliar risks and new classes of problems. The advanced environment friendly nanotechnologies elaborated by Israel Company Polymate Ltd. — International Research Center are illustrated.

Families Coping without Earnings or Government Cash Assistance. Assessing the New Federalism: An Urban Institute Program to Assess Changing Social Policies. Occasional Paper.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zedlewski, Sheila R.; Nelson, Sandi; Edin, Kathryn; Koball, Heather; Pomper, Kate; Roberts, Tracy

This study sought to determine why some families live outside the government cash income support system despite extreme poverty. Qualitative interviews were conducted with 95 extremely poor families (cash income below 50 percent of the federal poverty level living without employment income or government cash assistance). The interview sample was…

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Van Ootegem, Luc; SHERPPA — Ghent University; Verhofstadt, Elsy

Depth–damage-functions, relating the monetary flood damage to the depth of the inundation, are commonly used in the case of fluvial floods (floods caused by a river overflowing). We construct four multivariate damage models for pluvial floods (caused by extreme rainfall) by differentiating on the one hand between ground floor floods and basement floods and on the other hand between damage to residential buildings and damage to housing contents. We do not only take into account the effect of flood-depth on damage, but also incorporate the effects of non-hazard indicators (building characteristics, behavioural indicators and socio-economic variables). By using a Tobit-estimationmore » technique on identified victims of pluvial floods in Flanders (Belgium), we take into account the effect of cases of reported zero damage. Our results show that the flood depth is an important predictor of damage, but with a diverging impact between ground floor floods and basement floods. Also non-hazard indicators are important. For example being aware of the risk just before the water enters the building reduces content damage considerably, underlining the importance of warning systems and policy in this case of pluvial floods. - Highlights: • Prediction of damage of pluvial floods using also non-hazard information • We include ‘no damage cases’ using a Tobit model. • The damage of flood depth is stronger for ground floor than for basement floods. • Non-hazard indicators are especially important for content damage. • Potential gain of policies that increase awareness of flood risks.« less

The impact of dark tetrad traits on political orientation and extremism: an analysis in the course of a presidential election.

PubMed

Duspara, Boris; Greitemeyer, Tobias

2017-10-01

Previous research on personality and political attitudes has been conducted in countries where political parties from the center dominate the political system. In the present research ( N = 675), we focus on the relationship between the dark side of human personality and political orientation and extremism, respectively, in the course of a presidential election where the two candidates represent either left-wing or right-wing political policies. Narcissism, Machiavellianism, psychopathy, and everyday sadism were associated with right-wing political orientation, whereas narcissism and psychopathy were associated with political extremism. Moreover, the relationships between personality and right-wing political orientation and extremism, respectively, were relatively independent from each other.

Computational data sciences for assessment and prediction of climate extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ganguly, A. R.

2011-12-01

Climate extremes may be defined inclusively as severe weather events or large shifts in global or regional weather patterns which may be caused or exacerbated by natural climate variability or climate change. This area of research arguably represents one of the largest knowledge-gaps in climate science which is relevant for informing resource managers and policy makers. While physics-based climate models are essential in view of non-stationary and nonlinear dynamical processes, their current pace of uncertainty reduction may not be adequate for urgent stakeholder needs. The structure of the models may in some cases preclude reduction of uncertainty for critical processes at scales or for the extremes of interest. On the other hand, methods based on complex networks, extreme value statistics, machine learning, and space-time data mining, have demonstrated significant promise to improve scientific understanding and generate enhanced predictions. When combined with conceptual process understanding at multiple spatiotemporal scales and designed to handle massive data, interdisciplinary data science methods and algorithms may complement or supplement physics-based models. Specific examples from the prior literature and our ongoing work suggests how data-guided improvements may be possible, for example, in the context of ocean meteorology, climate oscillators, teleconnections, and atmospheric process understanding, which in turn can improve projections of regional climate, precipitation extremes and tropical cyclones in an useful and interpretable fashion. A community-wide effort is motivated to develop and adapt computational data science tools for translating climate model simulations to information relevant for adaptation and policy, as well as for improving our scientific understanding of climate extremes from both observed and model-simulated data.

Applying Science: Opportunities to Inform Disease Management Policy with Cooperative Research within a One Health Framework.

PubMed

Blackburn, Jason K; Kracalik, Ian T; Fair, Jeanne Marie

2015-01-01

The ongoing Ebola outbreak in West Africa and the current saiga antelope die off in Kazakhstan each represent very real and difficult to manage public or veterinary health crises. They also illustrate the importance of stable and funded surveillance and sound policy for intervention or disease control. While these two events highlight extreme cases of infectious disease (Ebola) or (possible) environmental exposure (saiga), diseases such as anthrax, brucellosis, tularemia, and plague are all zoonoses that pose risks and present surveillance challenges at the wildlife-livestock-human interfaces. These four diseases are also considered important actors in the threat of biological terror activities and have a long history as legacy biowarfare pathogens. This paper reviews recent studies done cooperatively between American and institutions within nations of the Former Soviet Union (FSU) focused on spatiotemporal, epidemiological, and ecological patterns of these four zoonoses. We examine recent studies and discuss the possible ways in which techniques, including ecological niche modeling, disease risk modeling, and spatiotemporal cluster analysis, can inform disease surveillance, control efforts, and impact policy. Our focus is to posit ways to apply science to disease management policy and actual management or mitigation practices. Across these examples, we illustrate the value of cooperative studies that bring together modern geospatial and epidemiological analyses to improve our understanding of the distribution of pathogens and diseases in livestock, wildlife, and humans. For example, ecological niche modeling can provide national level maps of pathogen distributions for surveillance planning, while space-time models can identify the timing and location of significant outbreak events for defining active control strategies. We advocate for the need to bring the results and the researchers from cooperative studies into the meeting rooms where policy is negotiated and use these results to inform future disease surveillance and control or eradication campaigns.

Co-benefits, trade-offs, barriers and policies for greenhouse gas mitigation in the agriculture, forestry and other land use (AFOLU) sector.

PubMed

Bustamante, Mercedes; Robledo-Abad, Carmenza; Harper, Richard; Mbow, Cheikh; Ravindranat, Nijavalli H; Sperling, Frank; Haberl, Helmut; Pinto, Alexandre de Siqueira; Smith, Pete

2014-10-01

The agriculture, forestry and other land use (AFOLU) sector is responsible for approximately 25% of anthropogenic GHG emissions mainly from deforestation and agricultural emissions from livestock, soil and nutrient management. Mitigation from the sector is thus extremely important in meeting emission reduction targets. The sector offers a variety of cost-competitive mitigation options with most analyses indicating a decline in emissions largely due to decreasing deforestation rates. Sustainability criteria are needed to guide development and implementation of AFOLU mitigation measures with particular focus on multifunctional systems that allow the delivery of multiple services from land. It is striking that almost all of the positive and negative impacts, opportunities and barriers are context specific, precluding generic statements about which AFOLU mitigation measures have the greatest promise at a global scale. This finding underlines the importance of considering each mitigation strategy on a case-by-case basis, systemic effects when implementing mitigation options on the national scale, and suggests that policies need to be flexible enough to allow such assessments. National and international agricultural and forest (climate) policies have the potential to alter the opportunity costs of specific land uses in ways that increase opportunities or barriers for attaining climate change mitigation goals. Policies governing practices in agriculture and in forest conservation and management need to account for both effective mitigation and adaptation and can help to orient practices in agriculture and in forestry towards global sharing of innovative technologies for the efficient use of land resources. Different policy instruments, especially economic incentives and regulatory approaches, are currently being applied however, for its successful implementation it is critical to understand how land-use decisions are made and how new social, political and economic forces in the future will influence this process. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The Effects of Extreme Temperature Events on Human Mortality in Europe: Winners and Losers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Merte, S.

2016-12-01

Climate change is a sizable threat to public health. Besides the shift in mean temperatures, there is also a change in the frequency of extreme temperature events. While cold spells become less frequent, heat waves become more common. As either of these can cause human death, the net-effect of climate change in terms of human excess mortality is currently unclear and and will vary depending on local conditions. The ability to estimate this net-effect is key when it comes to designing effective climate change adaptation policies as some areas will be affected earlier and/or stronger than others. This work provides the first large-scale estimate of this net-effect for Europe. Utilizing a novel methodology based on singular systems analysis, climate extreme-driven excess mortality is estimated using national-level health data. The first notable finding of this work is the confirmation that extreme temperature events already pose a major environmental risk: tens of thousands of people die every year in the examined European countries as a result of heat waves and cold spells. The second important result is that it demonstrates the need for climate change mitigation: Assuming moderate climate change, some countries in Northern and Western Europe will benefit from the shift in extreme temperature events — they will experience a net-reduction in excess mortality as a result of a drastically reduced frequency of cold spells. In contrast, assuming severe climate change, there will be a significant increase in excess mortality, in particular across countries in Southern Europe. This means that -if climate adaptation fails- there will be no winners, just losers.

[Role of multislice computed tomography in the diagnosis of acute rupture of the thoracic aorta and hepatic artery in a patient with severe concomitant injury].

PubMed

Muslimov, R Sh; Sharifullin, F A; Chernaia, N R; Novruzbekov, M S; Kokov, L S

2015-01-01

Acute traumatic aortic rupture is associated with extremely high mortality rates and requires emergency diagnosis and treatment. This clinical example shows the role of multislice spiral computed tomography in the emergency diagnosis of rupture of two large arterial vessels in severe concomitant injury. It presents the benefits of this rapid and noninvasive imaging technique, an algorithm of the study and the semiotics of injuries in patients with suspected traumatic aortic rupture. The paper also shows the importance of this method in defining treatment policy and then in the assessment of the results of the performed correction.

Extreme Weather Years Drive Episodic Acidification and Brownification in Lakes in the Northeast US: Implications for Long-term Shifts in Dissolved Organic Carbon, Water Clarity, and Thermal Structure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Strock, K.; Saros, J. E.

2017-12-01

Interannual climate variability is expected to increase over the next century, but the extent to which hydroclimatic variability influences biogeochemical processes is unclear. To determine the effects of extreme weather on surface water chemistry, a 30-year record of surface water geochemistry for 84 lakes in the northeastern U.S. was combined with landscape data and watershed-specific weather data. With these data, responses in sulfate and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations were characterized during extreme wet and extreme dry conditions. Episodic acidification during drought and episodic brownification (increased DOC) during wet years were detected broadly across the northeastern U.S. Episodic chemical response was linearly related to wetland coverage in lake watersheds only during extreme wet years. The results of a redundancy analysis suggest that topographic features also need to be considered and that the interplay between wetlands and their degree of connectivity to surface waters could be driving episodic acidification in this region. A subset of lakes located in Acadia National Park, Maine U.S.A. were studied to better understand the implications of regional increases of DOC in lakes. Water transparency declined across six study sites since 1995 as DOC increased. As clarity declined, some lakes experienced reduced epilimnion thickness. The degree to which transparency changed across the lakes was dependent on DOC concentration, with a larger decline in transparency occurring in clear water lakes than brown water lakes. The results presented here help to clarify the variability observed in long-term recovery from acidification and regional increases in DOC. Specifically, an increased frequency of extreme wet years may be contributing to a recent acceleration in the recovery of lake ecosystems from acidification; however, increased frequency of wet years may also lead to reduced water clarity and altered physical lake habitat. Clarifying the response of DOC, a pivotal regulator of aquatic ecosystems, to extreme weather events across gradients of landscape position and atmospheric deposition, is increasingly important for policy and management decisions as the frequency of extreme events continues to increase in this region.

Exploring Citizen Infrastructure and Environmental Priorities in Mumbai, India

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sperling, Joshua; Romero-Lankao, Patricia; Beig, Gufran

Many cities worldwide seek to understand local policy priorities among their general populations. This study explores how differences in local conditions and among citizens within and across Mumbai, India shape local infrastructure (e.g. energy, water, transport) and environmental (e.g. managing pollution, climate-related extreme weather events) policy priorities for change that may or may not be aligned with local government action or global environmental sustainability concerns such as low-carbon development. In this rapidly urbanizing city, multiple issues compete for prominence, ranging from improved management of pollution and extreme weather to energy and other infrastructure services. To inform a broader perspective ofmore » policy priorities for urban development and risk mitigation, a survey was conducted among over 1200 citizens. The survey explored the state of local conditions, the challenges citizens face, and the ways in which differences in local conditions (socio-institutional, infrastructure, and health-related) demonstrate inequities and influence how citizens perceive risks and rank priorities for the future design and implementation of local planning, policy, and community-based efforts. With growing discussion and tensions surrounding the new urban sustainable development goal, announced by the UN in late September 2015, and a new global urban agenda document to be agreed upon at 'Habitat III', issues on whether sustainable urbanization priorities should be set at the international, national or local level remain controversial. As such, this study aims to first understand determinants of and variations in local priorities across one city, with implications discussed for local-to-global urban sustainability. Findings from survey results indicate the determinants and variation in conditions such as age, assets, levels of participation in residential action groups, the health outcome of chronic asthma, and the infrastructure service of piped water provision to homes are significant in shaping the top infrastructure and environmental policy priorities that include water supply and sanitation, air pollution, waste, and extreme heat.« less

An overview of the roles and structure of international high-security veterinary laboratories for infectious animal diseases.

PubMed

Murray, P K

1998-08-01

The unique structure, role and operations of government high-security (HS) laboratories which work on animal diseases are described, with particular reference to the laboratories of nine countries. High-security laboratories provide cost-effective insurance against catastrophic losses which could occur following exotic disease outbreaks. The importance of these laboratories is reflected in the fact that several new laboratories have recently been constructed at considerable expense and older facilities have undergone major renovations. Biosecurity is fundamental to the operation of high-security laboratories, so good facility design and microbiological security practices are very important. High-security laboratories conduct exotic disease diagnosis, certification and surveillance, and also perform research into virology, disease pathogenesis and improvements to diagnostic tests and vaccines. The mandate of these laboratories includes the training of veterinarians in the recognition of exotic diseases. One extremely important role is the provision of expert advice on exotic diseases and participation (both nationally and internationally) in policy decisions regarding animal disease issues.

Uncertainty in forecasts of long-run economic growth.

PubMed

Christensen, P; Gillingham, K; Nordhaus, W

2018-05-22

Forecasts of long-run economic growth are critical inputs into policy decisions being made today on the economy and the environment. Despite its importance, there is a sparse literature on long-run forecasts of economic growth and the uncertainty in such forecasts. This study presents comprehensive probabilistic long-run projections of global and regional per-capita economic growth rates, comparing estimates from an expert survey and a low-frequency econometric approach. Our primary results suggest a median 2010-2100 global growth rate in per-capita gross domestic product of 2.1% per year, with a standard deviation (SD) of 1.1 percentage points, indicating substantially higher uncertainty than is implied in existing forecasts. The larger range of growth rates implies a greater likelihood of extreme climate change outcomes than is currently assumed and has important implications for social insurance programs in the United States.

A proposed decision-making guide for the search, rescue and resuscitation of submersion (head under) victims based on expert opinion.

PubMed

Tipton, Michael J; Golden, Frank St C

2011-07-01

There is some confusion, and consequent variation in policy, between the agencies responsible for the search, rescue and resuscitation of submersion victims regarding the likelihood of survival following a period of submersion. The aim of this work was to recommend a decision-making guide for such victims. This guidance was arrived at by a review of the relevant literature and specific case studies, and a "consensus" meeting on the topic. The factors found to be important for determining the possibility of prolonged survival underwater were: water temperature; salinity of water; duration of submersion; and age of the victim. Of these, only water temperature and duration are sufficiently clear to form the basis of guidance in this area. It is concluded that if water temperature is warmer than 6°C, survival/resuscitation is extremely unlikely if submerged longer than 30 min. If water temperature is 6°C or below, survival/resuscitation is extremely unlikely if submerged longer than 90 min. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effects of temperature and precipitation variability on the risk of violence in sub-Saharan Africa, 1980–2012

PubMed Central

O’Loughlin, John; Linke, Andrew M.; Witmer, Frank D. W.

2014-01-01

Ongoing debates in the academic community and in the public policy arena continue without clear resolution about the significance of global climate change for the risk of increased conflict. Sub-Saharan Africa is generally agreed to be the region most vulnerable to such climate impacts. Using a large database of conflict events and detailed climatological data covering the period 1980–2012, we apply a multilevel modeling technique that allows for a more nuanced understanding of a climate–conflict link than has been seen heretofore. In the aggregate, high temperature extremes are associated with more conflict; however, different types of conflict and different subregions do not show consistent relationship with temperature deviations. Precipitation deviations, both high and low, are generally not significant. The location and timing of violence are influenced less by climate anomalies (temperature or precipitation variations from normal) than by key political, economic, and geographic factors. We find important distinctions in the relationship between temperature extremes and conflict by using multiple methods of analysis and by exploiting our time-series cross-sectional dataset for disaggregated analyses. PMID:25385621

Taking Legislators to the Field: Communicating with Policy Makers about Natural Resource Issues

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sawin, R. S.; Buchanan, R. C.

2006-12-01

Policy makers are among the most important audiences for scientific information. In particular, legislators, legislative staff, governmental agency staff, business leaders, environmental leaders, and others need accurate, objective natural-resource information to make policy decisions. This audience is busy and difficult to reach with technical information. As part of its public outreach program, the Kansas Geological Survey (a division of the University of Kansas) communicates directly with policy makers through an annual field conference. Operated since 1995, the conference presents information by combining field experiences, presentations by experts, and participant interaction. The primary objective is to give policy makers first-hand, unbiased information about the state's natural resource issues. The field conference takes policy makers to locations where natural resources are produced or used, or where there are important environmental issues, introducing them to experts and others who carry out (or are affected by) their decisions. The conference consists of three days of site visits, presentations, hands-on activities, and panel discussions. Participation is by invitation. Participants pay a small fee, but most costs are covered by co-sponsors, usually other state or local agencies, that are recruited to help defray expenses. Participants receive a guidebook before the trip. Travel is by chartered bus; lodging and meals are provided. Conferences have focused on topics (such as energy or water) or regions of the state. The most recent conference focused on cross-boundary issues and included stops in Kansas, Oklahoma, and Missouri. Written, post-conference evaluations are extremely positive. Legislators report that they regularly use conference information and contacts during the law-making process; conference information played a direct role in decisions related to underground natural-gas storage rules, water-rights by-back legislation, and sand and gravel dredging regulation. The conference has raised the Survey's visibility within the Legislature and improved relationships with state agencies. The annual field conference is a highly effective way of providing scientific information to this difficult-to-reach audience. The concept has been adopted by other state geological surveys and is applicable to other earth-science organizations.

Geoscience and Political Instability: Policies and Philosophies for Conducting Research in the Political Terra Infirma

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kelmelis, J.

2006-12-01

Earth scientists must conduct their work on, in or above the Earth, wherever the scientific questions can best be answered. This can put the scientist in harms way. Although the science itself can be policy or politics neutral, it may not be viewed that way in some locations. Still, the geosciences are a foundation of national security in the strictest statist sense as well as in the evolving concept of security, which incorporates the many sectors of society. On one extreme of this multi axis framework they inform military operations and on another, sustainable development cannot be conducted without them. Some geoscience issues are truly global and none respect borders unless the borders are defined by the earth itself. Yet, they are problematic in they require field work, which sometimes must logically cross political rift zones into erupting political conflicts. Describing the landscape of conflict is difficult. It can change rapidly due to internal or external variables. It can be redefined by the by the viewer as the political landscape shifts under his or her feet. As a result, there is no single policy for conducting scientific research in areas of political conflict, but a collection of policies, some fairly constant and some changing. Issues such as bi- and multi-lateral relations, legal aspects of scientific and technological exchange, and potential health and safety of the scientists must be considered along with the type of scientific work to be conducted. In fact, the organization from which the scientist originates is a concern in some areas as well. In this presentation I discuss several types of conflict, the United States' Country Level Foreign Assistance Framework, the objectives of U.S. foreign policy strategy, transformational diplomacy, and the importance of earth and natural sciences to them. I consider several cases involving different nations, different types and levels of conflict, and different scientific activities. I also ask the earth science community to identify issues of importance to conducting field research that can be articulated to the foreign policy community.

The implications of high-quality staff break areas for nurses' health, performance, job satisfaction and retention.

PubMed

Nejati, Adeleh; Rodiek, Susan; Shepley, Mardelle

2016-05-01

The main study objective was to explore policy and design factors contributing to nurses' perception of how well-designed staff break areas can play an important beneficial role in relation to their overall job satisfaction, retention, performance and job-related health concerns. Nurses are extremely valuable to the healthcare industry; however, today's nursing profession is challenged by nurses' fatigue and its negative consequences on nurses' health and the quality of patient care they provide. Preliminary interviews were conducted with 10 nurses who worked as consultants in the healthcare design and construction industry. Based on findings, an online survey was developed and distributed to over 10 000 members of the Academy of Medical-Surgical Nurses in the United States. The majority of nurses viewed high-quality break spaces as 'fairly' or 'very' important in terms of their potential to positively influence staff, patient and facility outcomes. Stress, rest breaks and the quality of break areas were some of the significant factors contributing to their perception. The results of this empirical study support the conclusion that improvements in healthcare facility policies regarding staff breaks, as well as the creation of better-designed break areas, can be of significant benefit for nurses and the patients that they serve. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Regaining momentum for international climate policy beyond Copenhagen

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

The 'Copenhagen Accord' fails to deliver the political framework for a fair, ambitious and legally-binding international climate agreement beyond 2012. The current climate policy regime dynamics are insufficient to reflect the realities of topical complexity, actor coalitions, as well as financial, legal and institutional challenges in the light of extreme time constraints to avoid 'dangerous' climate change of more than 2°C. In this paper we analyze these stumbling blocks for international climate policy and discuss alternatives in order to regain momentum for future negotiations. PMID:20525341

Political polarization projection: social projection of partisan attitude extremity and attitudinal processes.

PubMed

Van Boven, Leaf; Judd, Charles M; Sherman, David K

2012-07-01

What influences perceptions of political polarization? The authors examine the polarization of people's own political attitudes as a source of perceived polarization: Individuals with more extreme partisan attitudes perceive greater polarization than individuals with less extreme partisan attitudes. This "polarization projection" was demonstrated in 3 studies in which people estimated the distribution of others' political attitudes: one study with a nationally representative sample concerning the 2008 presidential election, and 2 studies concerning university students evaluating a policy regarding scarce resource allocation. These studies demonstrate that polarization projection occurs simultaneously with and independently of simple projection, the tendency to assume that others share one's partisan political attitudes. Polarization projection may occur partly because people assume that others engage in similar attitudinal processes as the self, such as extensive thought and emotional arousal. The projection of various attitudinal processes was demonstrated in a study concerning health care reform policies. Further supporting this explanation, polarization projection increased when people introspected about their own attitudinal processes, which increased the accessibility of those processes. Implications for perceptions of partisanship, social judgment, and civic behavior are discussed.

Meteorological risks as drivers of innovation for agroecosystem management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gobin, Anne; Van de Vyver, Hans; Zamani, Sepideh; Curnel, Yannick; Planchon, Viviane; Verspecht, Ann; Van Huylenbroeck, Guido

2015-04-01

Devastating weather-related events recorded in recent years have captured the interest of the general public in Belgium. The MERINOVA project research hypothesis is that meteorological risks act as drivers of environmental innovation in agro-ecosystem management which is being tested using a "chain of risk" approach. The major objectives are to (1) assess the probability of extreme meteorological events by means of probability density functions; (2) analyse the extreme events impact of on agro-ecosystems using process-based bio-physical modelling methods; (3) identify the most vulnerable agro-ecosystems using fuzzy multi-criteria and spatial analysis; (4) uncover innovative risk management and adaptation options using actor-network theory and economic modelling; and, (5) communicate to research, policy and practitioner communities using web-based techniques. Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) theory was used to model annual rainfall maxima based on location-, scale- and shape-parameters that determine the centre of the distribution, the deviation of the location-parameter and the upper tail decay, respectively. Likewise the distributions of consecutive rainy days, rainfall deficits and extreme 24-hour rainfall were modelled. Spatial interpolation of GEV-derived return levels resulted in maps of extreme precipitation, precipitation deficits and wet periods. The degree of temporal overlap between extreme weather conditions and sensitive periods in the agro-ecosystem was determined using a bio-physically based modelling framework that couples phenological models, a soil water balance, crop growth and environmental models. 20-year return values were derived for frost, heat stress, drought, waterlogging and field access during different sensitive stages for different arable crops. Extreme yield values were detected from detrended long term arable yields and relationships were found with soil moisture conditions, heat stress or other meteorological variables during the season. A methodology for identifying agro-ecosystem vulnerability was developed using spatially explicit information and was tested for arable crop production in Belgium. The different components of vulnerability for a region include spatial information on meteorology, soil available water content, soil erosion, the degree of waterlogging, crop share and the diversity of potato varieties. The level of vulnerability and resilience of an agro-ecosystem is also determined by risk management. The types of agricultural risk and their relative importance differ across sectors and farm types. Risk types are further distinguished according to production, market, institutional, financial and liability risks. Strategies are often combined in the risk management strategy of a farmer and include reduction and prevention, mitigation, coping and impact reduction. Based on an extensive literature review, a portfolio of potential strategies was identified at farm, market and policy level. Research hypotheses were tested using an on-line questionnaire on knowledge of agricultural risk, measuring the general risk aversion of the farmer and risk management strategies. The "chain of risk" approach adopted as a research methodology allows for investigating the hypothesis that meteorological risks act as drivers for agricultural innovation. Risks related to extreme weather events in Belgium are mainly caused by heat, frost, excess rainfall, drought and storms, and their impact is predominantly felt by arable, horticultural and extensive dairy farmers. Quantification of the risk is evaluated in terms of probability of occurrence, magnitude, frequency and extent of impact on several agro-ecosystems services. The spatial extent of vulnerability is developed by integrating different layers of geo-information, while risk management is analysed using questionnaires and economic modelling methods. Future work will concentrate on the further development and testing of the currently developed modelling methodologies. https://merinova.vito.be The research is funded by the Belgian Science Policy Organisation (Belspo) under contract nr SD/RI/03A.

A comparative study of European insurance schemes for extreme weather risks and incentives for risk reduction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Ruiter, Marleen; Hudson, Paul; de Ruig, Lars; Kuik, Onno; Botzen, Wouter

2017-04-01

This paper provides an analysis of the insurance schemes that cover extreme weather events in twelve different EU countries and the risk reduction incentives offered by these schemes. Economic impacts of extreme weather events in many regions in Europe and elsewhere are on the rise due to climate change and increasing exposure as driven by urban development. In an attempt to manage impacts from extreme weather events, natural disaster insurance schemes can provide incentives for taking measures that limit weather-related risks. Insurance companies can influence public risk management policies and risk-reducing behaviour of policyholders by "rewarding behaviour that reduces risks and potential damages" (Botzen and Van den Bergh, 2008, p. 417). Examples of insurance market systems that directly or indirectly aim to incentivize risk reduction with varying degrees of success are: the U.S. National Flood Insurance Programme; the French Catastrophes Naturelles system; and the U.K. Flood Re program which requires certain levels of protection standards for properties to be insurable. In our analysis, we distinguish between four different disaster types (i.e. coastal and fluvial floods, droughts and storms) and three different sectors (i.e. residential, commercial and agriculture). The selected case studies also provide a wide coverage of different insurance market structures, including public, private and public-private insurance provision, and different methods of coping with extreme loss events, such as re-insurance, governmental aid and catastrophe bonds. The analysis of existing mechanisms for risk reduction incentives provides recommendations about incentivizing adaptive behaviour, in order to assist policy makers and other stakeholders in designing more effective insurance schemes for extreme weather risks.

Development and application of earth system models.

PubMed

Prinn, Ronald G

2013-02-26

The global environment is a complex and dynamic system. Earth system modeling is needed to help understand changes in interacting subsystems, elucidate the influence of human activities, and explore possible future changes. Integrated assessment of environment and human development is arguably the most difficult and most important "systems" problem faced. To illustrate this approach, we present results from the integrated global system model (IGSM), which consists of coupled submodels addressing economic development, atmospheric chemistry, climate dynamics, and ecosystem processes. An uncertainty analysis implies that without mitigation policies, the global average surface temperature may rise between 3.5 °C and 7.4 °C from 1981-2000 to 2091-2100 (90% confidence limits). Polar temperatures, absent policy, are projected to rise from about 6.4 °C to 14 °C (90% confidence limits). Similar analysis of four increasingly stringent climate mitigation policy cases involving stabilization of greenhouse gases at various levels indicates that the greatest effect of these policies is to lower the probability of extreme changes. The IGSM is also used to elucidate potential unintended environmental consequences of renewable energy at large scales. There are significant reasons for attention to climate adaptation in addition to climate mitigation that earth system models can help inform. These models can also be applied to evaluate whether "climate engineering" is a viable option or a dangerous diversion. We must prepare young people to address this issue: The problem of preserving a habitable planet will engage present and future generations. Scientists must improve communication if research is to inform the public and policy makers better.

Development and application of earth system models

PubMed Central

Prinn, Ronald G.

2013-01-01

The global environment is a complex and dynamic system. Earth system modeling is needed to help understand changes in interacting subsystems, elucidate the influence of human activities, and explore possible future changes. Integrated assessment of environment and human development is arguably the most difficult and most important “systems” problem faced. To illustrate this approach, we present results from the integrated global system model (IGSM), which consists of coupled submodels addressing economic development, atmospheric chemistry, climate dynamics, and ecosystem processes. An uncertainty analysis implies that without mitigation policies, the global average surface temperature may rise between 3.5 °C and 7.4 °C from 1981–2000 to 2091–2100 (90% confidence limits). Polar temperatures, absent policy, are projected to rise from about 6.4 °C to 14 °C (90% confidence limits). Similar analysis of four increasingly stringent climate mitigation policy cases involving stabilization of greenhouse gases at various levels indicates that the greatest effect of these policies is to lower the probability of extreme changes. The IGSM is also used to elucidate potential unintended environmental consequences of renewable energy at large scales. There are significant reasons for attention to climate adaptation in addition to climate mitigation that earth system models can help inform. These models can also be applied to evaluate whether “climate engineering” is a viable option or a dangerous diversion. We must prepare young people to address this issue: The problem of preserving a habitable planet will engage present and future generations. Scientists must improve communication if research is to inform the public and policy makers better. PMID:22706645

Extreme Wildlife Declines and Concurrent Increase in Livestock Numbers in Kenya: What Are the Causes?

PubMed Central

Ogutu, Joseph O.; Piepho, Hans-Peter; Said, Mohamed Y.; Ojwang, Gordon O.; Njino, Lucy W.; Kifugo, Shem C.; Wargute, Patrick W.

2016-01-01

There is growing evidence of escalating wildlife losses worldwide. Extreme wildlife losses have recently been documented for large parts of Africa, including western, Central and Eastern Africa. Here, we report extreme declines in wildlife and contemporaneous increase in livestock numbers in Kenya rangelands between 1977 and 2016. Our analysis uses systematic aerial monitoring survey data collected in rangelands that collectively cover 88% of Kenya’s land surface. Our results show that wildlife numbers declined on average by 68% between 1977 and 2016. The magnitude of decline varied among species but was most extreme (72–88%) and now severely threatens the population viability and persistence of warthog, lesser kudu, Thomson’s gazelle, eland, oryx, topi, hartebeest, impala, Grevy’s zebra and waterbuck in Kenya’s rangelands. The declines were widespread and occurred in most of the 21 rangeland counties. Likewise to wildlife, cattle numbers decreased (25.2%) but numbers of sheep and goats (76.3%), camels (13.1%) and donkeys (6.7%) evidently increased in the same period. As a result, livestock biomass was 8.1 times greater than that of wildlife in 2011–2013 compared to 3.5 times in 1977–1980. Most of Kenya’s wildlife (ca. 30%) occurred in Narok County alone. The proportion of the total “national” wildlife population found in each county increased between 1977 and 2016 substantially only in Taita Taveta and Laikipia but marginally in Garissa and Wajir counties, largely reflecting greater wildlife losses elsewhere. The declines raise very grave concerns about the future of wildlife, the effectiveness of wildlife conservation policies, strategies and practices in Kenya. Causes of the wildlife declines include exponential human population growth, increasing livestock numbers, declining rainfall and a striking rise in temperatures but the fundamental cause seems to be policy, institutional and market failures. Accordingly, we thoroughly evaluate wildlife conservation policy in Kenya. We suggest policy, institutional and management interventions likely to succeed in reducing the declines and restoring rangeland health, most notably through strengthening and investing in community and private wildlife conservancies in the rangelands. PMID:27676077

Extreme Wildlife Declines and Concurrent Increase in Livestock Numbers in Kenya: What Are the Causes?

PubMed

Ogutu, Joseph O; Piepho, Hans-Peter; Said, Mohamed Y; Ojwang, Gordon O; Njino, Lucy W; Kifugo, Shem C; Wargute, Patrick W

There is growing evidence of escalating wildlife losses worldwide. Extreme wildlife losses have recently been documented for large parts of Africa, including western, Central and Eastern Africa. Here, we report extreme declines in wildlife and contemporaneous increase in livestock numbers in Kenya rangelands between 1977 and 2016. Our analysis uses systematic aerial monitoring survey data collected in rangelands that collectively cover 88% of Kenya's land surface. Our results show that wildlife numbers declined on average by 68% between 1977 and 2016. The magnitude of decline varied among species but was most extreme (72-88%) and now severely threatens the population viability and persistence of warthog, lesser kudu, Thomson's gazelle, eland, oryx, topi, hartebeest, impala, Grevy's zebra and waterbuck in Kenya's rangelands. The declines were widespread and occurred in most of the 21 rangeland counties. Likewise to wildlife, cattle numbers decreased (25.2%) but numbers of sheep and goats (76.3%), camels (13.1%) and donkeys (6.7%) evidently increased in the same period. As a result, livestock biomass was 8.1 times greater than that of wildlife in 2011-2013 compared to 3.5 times in 1977-1980. Most of Kenya's wildlife (ca. 30%) occurred in Narok County alone. The proportion of the total "national" wildlife population found in each county increased between 1977 and 2016 substantially only in Taita Taveta and Laikipia but marginally in Garissa and Wajir counties, largely reflecting greater wildlife losses elsewhere. The declines raise very grave concerns about the future of wildlife, the effectiveness of wildlife conservation policies, strategies and practices in Kenya. Causes of the wildlife declines include exponential human population growth, increasing livestock numbers, declining rainfall and a striking rise in temperatures but the fundamental cause seems to be policy, institutional and market failures. Accordingly, we thoroughly evaluate wildlife conservation policy in Kenya. We suggest policy, institutional and management interventions likely to succeed in reducing the declines and restoring rangeland health, most notably through strengthening and investing in community and private wildlife conservancies in the rangelands.

Temperature impacts on economic growth warrant stringent mitigation policy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moore, Frances C.; Diaz, Delavane B.

2015-02-01

Integrated assessment models compare the costs of greenhouse gas mitigation with damages from climate change to evaluate the social welfare implications of climate policy proposals and inform optimal emissions reduction trajectories. However, these models have been criticized for lacking a strong empirical basis for their damage functions, which do little to alter assumptions of sustained gross domestic product (GDP) growth, even under extreme temperature scenarios. We implement empirical estimates of temperature effects on GDP growth rates in the DICE model through two pathways, total factor productivity growth and capital depreciation. This damage specification, even under optimistic adaptation assumptions, substantially slows GDP growth in poor regions but has more modest effects in rich countries. Optimal climate policy in this model stabilizes global temperature change below 2 °C by eliminating emissions in the near future and implies a social cost of carbon several times larger than previous estimates. A sensitivity analysis shows that the magnitude of climate change impacts on economic growth, the rate of adaptation, and the dynamic interaction between damages and GDP are three critical uncertainties requiring further research. In particular, optimal mitigation rates are much lower if countries become less sensitive to climate change impacts as they develop, making this a major source of uncertainty and an important subject for future research.

Coordination of a supply chain with consumer return under vendor-managed consignment inventory and stochastic demand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Zhihui; Chen, Dongyan; Yu, Hui

2016-07-01

In this paper, the problem of the coordination policy is investigated for vendor-managed consignment inventory supply chain subject to consumer return. Here, the market demand is assumed to be affected by promotional effort and consumer return policy. The optimal consignment inventory and the optimal promotional effort level are proposed under the decentralized and centralized decisions. Based on the optimal decision conditions, the markdown allowance-promotional cost-sharing contract is investigated to coordinate the supply chain. Subsequently, the comparison between the two extreme policies shows that full-refund policy dominates the no-return policy when the returning cost and the positive effect of return policy are satisfied certain conditions. Finally, a numerical example is provided to illustrate the impacts of consumer return policy on the coordination contract and optimal profit as well as the effectiveness of the proposed supply chain decision.

Keeping competition fair for health insurance: how the Irish beat back risk-rated policies.

PubMed Central

Light, D W

1998-01-01

OBJECTIVES: This paper describes how Ireland created a level playing field for competition in health insurance, the strategies of a major insurer to introduce risk-rated policies that would segment the market, the successful campaign to block these policies, and the policy implications of the European Union requirement of competition in health insurance. METHODS: Policy documents, interviews, and press reports were analyzed. RESULTS: The minister of health forced the commercial insurer to withdraw its policies and replace them with community-rated policies. CONCLUSIONS: Because it is easier and more profitable for insurers to engage in risk selection than to become more efficient, beneficial competition in health insurance markets is extremely difficult to create. Carefully drawn rules and monitoring are required to overcome inherent causes of market failure. The current enthusiasm for saving money through competitive schemes in health insurance seems likely to produce higher costs and greater inequality. PMID:9585738

Comparative evaluation of the IPCC AR5 CMIP5 versus the AR4 CMIP3 model ensembles for regional precipitation and their extremes over South America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tolen, J.; Kodra, E. A.; Ganguly, A. R.

2011-12-01

The assertion that higher-resolution experiments or more sophisticated process models within the IPCC AR5 CMIP5 suite of global climate model ensembles improves precipitation projections over the IPCC AR4 CMIP3 suite remains a hypothesis that needs to be rigorously tested. The questions are particularly important for local to regional assessments at scales relevant for the management of critical infrastructures and key resources, particularly for the attributes of sever precipitation events, for example, the intensity, frequency and duration of extreme precipitation. Our case study is South America, where precipitation and their extremes play a central role in sustaining natural, built and human systems. To test the hypothesis that CMIP5 improves over CMIP3 in this regard, spatial and temporal measures of prediction skill are constructed and computed by comparing climate model hindcasts with the NCEP-II reanalysis data, considered here as surrogate observations, for the entire globe and for South America. In addition, gridded precipitation observations over South America based on rain gage measurements are considered. The results suggest that the utility of the next-generation of global climate models over the current generation needs to be carefully evaluated on a case-by-case basis before communicating to resource managers and policy makers.

Extreme value modeling for the analysis and prediction of time series of extreme tropospheric ozone levels: a case study.

PubMed

Escarela, Gabriel

2012-06-01

The occurrence of high concentrations of tropospheric ozone is considered as one of the most important issues of air management programs. The prediction of dangerous ozone levels for the public health and the environment, along with the assessment of air quality control programs aimed at reducing their severity, is of considerable interest to the scientific community and to policy makers. The chemical mechanisms of tropospheric ozone formation are complex, and highly variable meteorological conditions contribute additionally to difficulties in accurate study and prediction of high levels of ozone. Statistical methods offer an effective approach to understand the problem and eventually improve the ability to predict maximum levels of ozone. In this paper an extreme value model is developed to study data sets that consist of periodically collected maxima of tropospheric ozone concentrations and meteorological variables. The methods are applied to daily tropospheric ozone maxima in Guadalajara City, Mexico, for the period January 1997 to December 2006. The model adjusts the daily rate of change in ozone for concurrent impacts of seasonality and present and past meteorological conditions, which include surface temperature, wind speed, wind direction, relative humidity, and ozone. The results indicate that trend, annual effects, and key meteorological variables along with some interactions explain the variation in daily ozone maxima. Prediction performance assessments yield reasonably good results.

Urgent Change Needed to Radiation Protection Policy.

PubMed

Cuttler, Jerry M

2016-03-01

Although almost 120 y of medical experience and data exist on human exposure to ionizing radiation, advisory bodies and regulators claim there are still significant uncertainties about radiation health risks that require extreme precautions be taken. Decades of evidence led to recommendations in the 1920s for protecting radiologists by limiting their daily exposure. These were shown in later studies to decrease both their overall mortality and cancer mortality below those of unexposed groups. In the 1950s, without scientific evidence, the National Academy of Sciences Biological Effects of Atomic Radiation (BEAR) Committee and the NCRP recommended that the linear no-threshold (LNT) model be used to assess the risk of radiation-induced mutations in germ cells and the risk of cancer in somatic cells. This policy change was accepted by the regulators of every country without a thorough review of its basis. Because use of the LNT model has created extreme public fear of radiation, which impairs vital medical applications of low-dose radiation in diagnostics and therapy and blocks nuclear energy projects, it is time to change radiation protection policy back into line with the data.

Results of a strategic science study to inform policies targeting extreme thinness standards in the fashion industry.

PubMed

Rodgers, Rachel F; Ziff, Sara; Lowy, Alice S; Yu, Kimberly; Austin, S Bryn

2017-03-01

The appearance pressures experienced by fashion models have been criticized as harmful to their health, as well as increasing eating disorder risk among youth by promoting ideals of extreme thinness. Given recent legislation to protect models, we undertook a strategic science study to assess professional fashion models' perceptions of the potential impact and feasibility of seven policy proposals. A sample of 85 female fashion models, mean age = 22.7 years (SD 3.7) completed an online survey assessing unhealthy weight control behaviors (UWCB), perceived pressure from agencies to lose weight, as well as the perceived impact and feasibility of seven potential policy actions. Chi-squared analyses and multivariable logistic regressions compared UWCB among models who were asked to lose weight and those who were not. Friedman and Kendall's W tests were conducted to examine differences in impact and feasibility ratings across the seven policy proposals. Models reported high levels of pressure to lose weight, which was associated with higher odds of engaging in UWCB. The policy approaches rated as most impactful were those to increase worker protections, though they were rated as only moderately feasible. Requiring employers to provide food and a 30-min break for jobs longer than 6 h was rated as both impactful and feasible. Imposing restrictions on minimum BMI was rated as the least impactful. Approaches providing employment protections and healthier working conditions are most supported by professional models. These findings help to illuminate viable policy approaches from the perspective of key stakeholders. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

7 CFR 1710.109 - Reimbursement of general funds and interim financing.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... be limited, except in cases of extreme financial hardship as determined by the Administrator, to the...) Policies for reimbursement of general funds and interim financing following certain mergers, consolidations...

76 FR 19176 - Shipping Coordinating Committee; Notice of Committee Meeting

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-04-06

... (SOLAS) regulation V/22 --Development of policy and new symbols for Automatic Identification System (AIS... transportation is not generally available). However, parking in the vicinity of the building is extremely limited...

Know thy enemy: Education about terrorism improves social attitudes toward terrorists.

PubMed

Theriault, Jordan; Krause, Peter; Young, Liane

2017-03-01

Hatred of terrorists is an obstacle to the implementation of effective counterterrorism policies-it invites indiscriminate retaliation, whereas many of the greatest successes in counterterrorism have come from understanding terrorists' personal and political motivations. Drawing from psychological research, traditional prejudice reduction strategies are generally not well suited to the task of reducing hatred of terrorists. Instead, in 2 studies, we explored education's potential ability to reduce extreme negative attitudes toward terrorists. Study 1 compared students in a college course on terrorism (treatment) with wait-listed students, measuring prosocial attitudes toward a hypothetical terrorist. Initially, all students reported extremely negative attitudes; however, at the end of the semester, treatment students' attitudes were significantly improved. Study 2 replicated the effect within a sample of treatment and control classes drawn from universities across the United States. The present work was part of an ongoing research project, focusing on foreign policy and the perceived threat of terrorism; thus classes did not explicitly aim to reduce prejudice, making the effect of treatment somewhat surprising. One possibility is that learning about terrorists "crowds out" the initial pejorative associations-that is, the label terrorism may ultimately call more information to mind, diluting its initial negative associative links. Alternatively, students may learn to challenge how the label terrorist is being applied. In either case, learning about terrorism can decrease the extreme negative reactions it evokes, which is desirable if one wishes to implement effective counterterrorism policies. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Aligning health care policy with evidence-based medicine: the case for funding direct oral anticoagulants in atrial fibrillation.

PubMed

Stone, James A; Earl, Karen M; O'Neill, Blair J; Sharma, Mukul; Huynh, Thao; Leblanc, Kori; Ward, Richard; Teal, Philip A; Cox, Jafna L

2014-10-01

Misalignment between evidence-informed clinical care guideline recommendations and reimbursement policy has created care gaps that lead to suboptimal outcomes for patients denied access to guideline-based therapies. The purpose of this article is to make the case for addressing this growing access barrier to optimal care. Stroke prevention in atrial fibrillation (AF) is discussed as an example. Stroke is an extremely costly disease, imposing a significant human, societal, and economic burden. Stroke in the setting of AF carries an 80% probability of death or disability. Although two-thirds of these strokes are preventable with appropriate anticoagulation, this has historically been underprescribed and poorly managed. National and international guidelines endorse the direct oral anticoagulants as first-line therapy for this indication. However, no Canadian province has provided these agents with an unrestricted listing. These decisions appear to be founded on silo-based cost assessment-the drug costs rather than the total system costs-and thus overlook several important cost-drivers in stroke. The discordance between best scientific evidence and public policy requires health care providers to use a potentially suboptimal therapy in contravention of guideline recommendations. It represents a significant obstacle for knowledge translation efforts that aim to increase the appropriate anticoagulation of Canadians with AF. As health care professionals, we have a responsibility to our patients to engage with policy-makers in addressing and resolving this barrier to optimal patient care. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

High energy from space

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Margon, Bruce; Canizares, Claude; Catura, Richard C.; Clark, George W.; Fichtel, Carl E.; Friedman, Herbert; Giacconi, Riccardo; Grindlay, Jonathan E.; Helfand, David J.; Holt, Stephen S.

1991-01-01

The following subject areas are covered: (1) important scientific problems for high energy astrophysics (stellar activity, the interstellar medium in galaxies, supernovae and endpoints of stellar evolution, nucleosynthesis, relativistic plasmas and matter under extreme conditions, nature of gamma-bursts, identification of black holes, active nuclei, accretion physics, large-scale structures, intracluster medium, nature of dark matter, and the X- and gamma-ray background); (2) the existing experimental programs (Advanced X-Ray Astrophysics Facility (AXAF), Gamma Ray Observatory (GRO), X-Ray Timing Explorer (XTE), High Energy Transient Experiment (HETE), U.S. participation in foreign missions, and attached Shuttle and Space Station Freedom payloads); (3) major missions for the 1990's; (4) a new program of moderate missions; (5) new opportunities for small missions; (6) technology development issues; and (7) policy issues.

Final Report Extreme Computing and U.S. Competitiveness DOE Award. DE-FG02-11ER26087/DE-SC0008764

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mustain, Christopher J.

The Council has acted on each of the grant deliverables during the funding period. The deliverables are: (1) convening the Council’s High Performance Computing Advisory Committee (HPCAC) on a bi-annual basis; (2) broadening public awareness of high performance computing (HPC) and exascale developments; (3) assessing the industrial applications of extreme computing; and (4) establishing a policy and business case for an exascale economy.

A Comparative Analysis of Climate-Risk and Extreme Event-Related Impacts on Well-Being and Health: Policy Implications

PubMed Central

Al-Amin, Abul Quasem; Wiesböck, Laura; Mugabe, Paschal; Aparicio-Effen, Marilyn; Fudjumdjum, Hubert; Chiappetta Jabbour, Charbel Jose

2018-01-01

There are various climate risks that are caused or influenced by climate change. They are known to have a wide range of physical, economic, environmental and social impacts. Apart from damages to the physical environment, many climate risks (climate variability, extreme events and climate-related hazards) are associated with a variety of impacts on human well-being, health, and life-supporting systems. These vary from boosting the proliferation of vectors of diseases (e.g., mosquitos), to mental problems triggered by damage to properties and infrastructure. There is a great variety of literature about the strong links between climate change and health, while there is relatively less literature that specifically examines the health impacts of climate risks and extreme events. This paper is an attempt to address this knowledge gap, by compiling eight examples from a set of industrialised and developing countries, where such interactions are described. The policy implications of these phenomena and the lessons learned from the examples provided are summarised. Some suggestions as to how to avert the potential and real health impacts of climate risks are made, hence assisting efforts to adapt to a problem whose impacts affect millions of people around the world. All the examples studied show some degree of vulnerability to climate risks regardless of their socioeconomic status and need to increase resilience against extreme events. PMID:29438345

A Comparative Analysis of Climate-Risk and Extreme Event-Related Impacts on Well-Being and Health: Policy Implications.

PubMed

Filho, Walter Leal; Al-Amin, Abul Quasem; Nagy, Gustavo J; Azeiteiro, Ulisses M; Wiesböck, Laura; Ayal, Desalegn Y; Morgan, Edward A; Mugabe, Paschal; Aparicio-Effen, Marilyn; Fudjumdjum, Hubert; Chiappetta Jabbour, Charbel Jose

2018-02-13

There are various climate risks that are caused or influenced by climate change. They are known to have a wide range of physical, economic, environmental and social impacts. Apart from damages to the physical environment, many climate risks (climate variability, extreme events and climate-related hazards) are associated with a variety of impacts on human well-being, health, and life-supporting systems. These vary from boosting the proliferation of vectors of diseases (e.g., mosquitos), to mental problems triggered by damage to properties and infrastructure. There is a great variety of literature about the strong links between climate change and health, while there is relatively less literature that specifically examines the health impacts of climate risks and extreme events. This paper is an attempt to address this knowledge gap, by compiling eight examples from a set of industrialised and developing countries, where such interactions are described. The policy implications of these phenomena and the lessons learned from the examples provided are summarised. Some suggestions as to how to avert the potential and real health impacts of climate risks are made, hence assisting efforts to adapt to a problem whose impacts affect millions of people around the world. All the examples studied show some degree of vulnerability to climate risks regardless of their socioeconomic status and need to increase resilience against extreme events.

Epidemiology of extremity fractures in the Netherlands.

PubMed

Beerekamp, M S H; de Muinck Keizer, R J O; Schep, N W L; Ubbink, D T; Panneman, M J M; Goslings, J C

2017-07-01

Insight in epidemiologic data of extremity fractures is relevant to identify people at risk. By analyzing age- and gender specific fracture incidence and treatment patterns we may adjust future policy, take preventive measures and optimize health care management. Current epidemiologic data on extremity fractures and their treatment are scarce, outdated or aiming at a small spectrum of fractures. The aim of this study was to assess trends in incidence and treatment of extremity fractures between 2004 and 2012 in relation to gender and age. We used a combination of national registries of patients aged ≥ 16 years with extremity fractures. Fractures were coded by the International Classification of Diseases (ICD) 10, and allocated to an anatomic region. ICD-10 codes were used for combining the data of the registries. Absolute numbers, incidences, number of patients treated in university hospitals and surgically treated patients were reported. A binary logistic regression was used to calculate trends during the study period. From 2004 to 2012 the Dutch population aged ≥16 years grew from 13,047,018 to 13,639,412 inhabitants, particularly in the higher age groups of 46 years and older. The absolute number of extremity fractures increased significantly from 129,188 to 176,129 (OR 1.308 [1.299-1.318]), except for forearm and lower leg fractures. Incidences increased significantly (3-4%) for wrist, hand/finger, hip/upper leg, ankle and foot/toe fractures. In contrast to the older age categories from 66 years and older, in younger age categories from 16 to 35 years, fractures of the extremities were more frequent in men than in women. Treatments gradually moved towards non-university hospitals for all except forearm fractures. Both relative and absolute numbers increased for surgical treatments of clavicle/shoulder, forearm, wrist and hand/finger fractures. Contrarily, lower extremity fractures showed an increase in non-surgical treatment, except for lower leg fractures. During the study period, we observed an increasing incidence of extremity fractures and a shift towards surgical treatment. Patient numbers in university hospitals declined. If these trends continue, policy makers would be well advised to consider the changing demands in extremity fracture treatment and pro-actively increase capacity and resources. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Using a Multi-Method Approach to Examine Social-Ecological Vulnerability to Climate Change and Natural Resource Policies on the Tibetan Plateau

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klein, J.; Hopping, K. A.; Yeh, E.; Nyima, Y.; Galvin, K.; Boone, R.; Dorje, T.; Ojima, D. S.

2012-12-01

Pastoralists and ecosystems on the Tibetan Plateau are facing a suite of novel stresses. Temperatures are increasing several times more than the global average. The frequency and severity of severe snowstorms, which lead to critical losses of livestock, are also increasing. Pastoralists are also experiencing changes to their livelihood activities, including reduced mobility and severe grazing restrictions. We are using interdisciplinary frameworks and methods that integrate results from a multifactor ecological experiment, household interviews, remote sensing, and a coupled ecosystem and household decision-making model to examine herder and ecosystem vulnerability to climate change and extreme weather events (snow disasters) within the context of changing natural resource management policies in China. The fully factorial ecological experiment includes two climate changes (warming and spring snow additions) and two types of grazing (yak and pika) that are being affected by current policy. We established the experiment in 2008 within the Tibet Autonomous Region. We are monitoring microclimate, vegetation, nutrient availability, ecosystem carbon fluxes and stable isotope signatures of select plant species. Through this experiment, we are investigating the sensitivity of the system, whether it can cross critical thresholds, and how resilient this system may be to predicted future climate and land use changes. Semi-structured, in-depth interviews on indigenous knowledge and vulnerability complement the ecological experimental work. We are asking herders about climate and ecological change and their drivers and are also conducting interviews on vulnerability to snow disasters across a three site, 300-500mm precipitation gradient. We are using remote sensing to identify biophysical landscape change over time. To integrate our ecological and social findings, we are coupling the Savanna ecosystem model to the DECUMA agent-based pastoral household model. Our results to date from the experiment and the indigenous knowledge study suggest that Kobresia pygmaea, the dominant plant species and the primary grazing resource, is vulnerable to warming. Moreover, several lines of evidence suggest that warming is causing delayed spring phenology, with important ecosystem and livelihood implications. Herders are observing climatic and ecological changes, knowledge which is important for adaptation, but people whose livelihoods are most directly derived from the rangelands, those situated at higher elevations, and those who are more mobile across the landscape are most attuned to these changes. These results suggest that rangeland degradation and delayed spring phenology are occurring, and that climate warming may be responsible for these changes. While additional snow may improve ecological conditions, the warming-induced degradation may make the social-ecological system more vulnerable to large snowstorm events. Our findings suggest that climate adaptation strategies should address the effects of both climate warming and the changing nature of extreme weather events and should also encourage land use policies that will maintain these systems under change. Moreover, policies that encourage mobility and rangeland-based livelihoods will enhance adaptation to climate change.

Risks to Early Childhood Health and Development in the Postconflict Transition of Northern Uganda

PubMed Central

McElroy, Theresa A.; Atim, Stella; Larson, Charles P.; Armstrong, Robert W.

2012-01-01

Research from numerous fields of science has documented the critical importance of nurturing environments in shaping young children's future health and development. We studied the environments of early childhood (birth to 3 years) during postconflict, postdisplacement transition in northern Uganda. The aim was to better understand perceived needs and risks in order to recommend targeted policy and interventions. Methods. Applied ethnography (interview, focus group discussion, case study, observational methods, document review) in 3 sites over 1 year. Results. Transition was a prolonged and deeply challenging phase for families. Young children were exposed to a myriad of risk factors. Participants recognized risks as potential barriers to positive long-term life outcomes for children and society but circumstances generally rendered them unable to make substantive changes. Conclusions. Support structures were inadequate to protect the health and development of children during the transitional period placing infants and young children at risk. Specific policy and practice guidelines are required that focus on protecting hard-to-reach, vulnerable, children during what can be prolonged and extremely difficult periods of transition. PMID:22518183

Climate change and mosquito-borne diseases in China: a review.

PubMed

Bai, Li; Morton, Lindsay Carol; Liu, Qiyong

2013-03-09

China has experienced noticeable changes in climate over the past 100 years and the potential impact climate change has on transmission of mosquito-borne infectious diseases poses a risk to Chinese populations. The aims of this paper are to summarize what is known about the impact of climate change on the incidence and prevalence of malaria, dengue fever and Japanese encephalitis in China and to provide important information and direction for adaptation policy making. Fifty-five papers met the inclusion criteria for this study. Examination of these studies indicates that variability in temperature, precipitation, wind, and extreme weather events is linked to transmission of mosquito-borne diseases in some regions of China. However, study findings are inconsistent across geographical locations and this requires strengthening current evidence for timely development of adaptive options. After synthesis of available information we make several key adaptation recommendations including: improving current surveillance and monitoring systems; concentrating adaptation strategies and policies on vulnerable communities; strengthening adaptive capacity of public health systems; developing multidisciplinary approaches sustained by an new mechanism of inter-sectional coordination; and increasing awareness and mobilization of the general public.

Climate change and mosquito-borne diseases in China: a review

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

China has experienced noticeable changes in climate over the past 100 years and the potential impact climate change has on transmission of mosquito-borne infectious diseases poses a risk to Chinese populations. The aims of this paper are to summarize what is known about the impact of climate change on the incidence and prevalence of malaria, dengue fever and Japanese encephalitis in China and to provide important information and direction for adaptation policy making. Fifty-five papers met the inclusion criteria for this study. Examination of these studies indicates that variability in temperature, precipitation, wind, and extreme weather events is linked to transmission of mosquito-borne diseases in some regions of China. However, study findings are inconsistent across geographical locations and this requires strengthening current evidence for timely development of adaptive options. After synthesis of available information we make several key adaptation recommendations including: improving current surveillance and monitoring systems; concentrating adaptation strategies and policies on vulnerable communities; strengthening adaptive capacity of public health systems; developing multidisciplinary approaches sustained by an new mechanism of inter-sectional coordination; and increasing awareness and mobilization of the general public. PMID:23497420

Towards Increased Engagement of Geoscientists in Global Development Frameworks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gill, Joel

2016-04-01

Geoscientists have the potential to make a significant contribution to tackling some of the major socio-environmental challenges of today, including extreme poverty, sustainable development, disaster risk reduction and climate change. This presentation explores the importance and social responsibility of geoscientists to engage in such work through understanding and supporting key global development frameworks. During 2015 the international community agreed three important agendas for change. Each framework relates to the intersection of environmental processes with human activities and behaviours, addressing significant challenges affecting society. The frameworks are (i) the UN Global Goals for Sustainable Development, (ii) the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030, and (iii) subject to final confirmation at the time of writing, an agreement on climate change at the Paris Conference of the Parties - COP21. The UN Global Goals for Sustainable Development, for example, includes 17 goals aiming to end extreme poverty, fight inequality and ensure environmental sustainability. Specific goals relate to clean water and sanitation, clean and affordable energy, the development of resilient infrastructure, and the need for climate action. Given this context, here (i) a synthesis is presented of the role of geoscience in successfully achieving these major global development frameworks agreed in 2015, (ii) the ethical and social understanding that underpins effective engagement by geoscientists in the science-policy-practice interface is discussed, and (iii) this required ethical understanding is placed into the context of geoscience training and development needs. This approach demonstrates the importance of geoscientists from across all sectors and specialisms, engaging in the implementation, monitoring and evaluation of global development frameworks. It highlights the importance of a greater awareness and consideration of our ethical responsibilities in order to better support efforts to tackle major societal challenges.

24 CFR 960.202 - Tenant selection policies.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... occupancy during the fiscal year of PHA public housing units located in census tracts with a poverty rate of... extremely low income families as provided in paragraph (b) of this section. (ii) Deconcentration of poverty...

24 CFR 960.202 - Tenant selection policies.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-04-01

... occupancy during the fiscal year of PHA public housing units located in census tracts with a poverty rate of... extremely low income families as provided in paragraph (b) of this section. (ii) Deconcentration of poverty...

24 CFR 960.202 - Tenant selection policies.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-04-01

... occupancy during the fiscal year of PHA public housing units located in census tracts with a poverty rate of... extremely low income families as provided in paragraph (b) of this section. (ii) Deconcentration of poverty...

24 CFR 960.202 - Tenant selection policies.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... extremely low income families as provided in paragraph (b) of this section. (ii) Deconcentration of poverty... occupancy during the fiscal year of PHA public housing units located in census tracts with a poverty rate of...

Self-Aligned, Extremely High Frequency III-V Metal-Oxide-Semiconductor Field-Effect Transistors on Rigid and Flexible Substrates

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-06-29

resistances, respectively, and gd is the output conductance. The reduced parasitic capacitances and resistances provided by the self-aligned T-gate design ...Department of the Army position, policy or decision, unless so designated by other documentation. 12. DISTRIBUTION AVAILIBILITY STATEMENT Approved for...position, policy or decision, unless so designated by other documentation. Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. ... 59654.5-MS-DRP Self

Rural livelihoods and household adaptation to extreme flooding in the Okavango Delta, Botswana

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Motsholapheko, M. R.; Kgathi, D. L.; Vanderpost, C.

Adaptation to flooding is now widely adopted as an appropriate policy option since flood mitigation measures largely exceed the capability of most developing countries. In wetlands, such as the Okavango Delta, adaptation is more appropriate as these systems serve as natural flood control mechanisms. The Okavango Delta system is subject to annual variability in flooding with extreme floods resulting in adverse impacts on rural livelihoods. This study therefore seeks to improve the general understanding of rural household livelihood adaptation to extreme flooding in the Okavango Delta. Specific objectives are: (1) to assess household access to forms of capital necessary for enhanced capacity to adapt, (2) to assess the impacts of extreme flooding on household livelihoods, and (3) to identify and assess household livelihood responses to extreme flooding. The study uses the sustainable livelihood and the socio-ecological frameworks to analyse the livelihood patterns and resilience to extreme flooding. Results from a survey of 623 households in five villages, key informant interviews, focus group discussions and review of literature, indicate that access to natural capital was generally high, but low for financial, physical, human and social capital. Households mainly relied on farm-based livelihood activities, some non-farm activities, limited rural trade and public transfers. In 2004 and 2009, extreme flooding resulted in livelihood disruptions in the study areas. The main impacts included crop damage, household displacement, destruction of household property, livestock drowning and mud-trapping, the destruction of public infrastructure and disruption of services. The main household coping strategies were labour switching to other livelihood activities, temporary relocation to less affected areas, use of canoes for early harvesting or evacuation and government assistance, particularly for the most vulnerable households. Household adaptive strategies included livelihood diversification, long-term mobility and training in non-agricultural skills. The study concludes that household capacity to adapt to extreme flooding in the study villages largely depends on access to natural capital. This is threatened by population growth, land use changes, policy shifts, upstream developments, global economic changes and flood variations due to climate variability and change.

Examination of the relationship between theory-driven policies and allowed lost-time back claims in workers' compensation: a system dynamics model.

PubMed

Wong, Jessica J; McGregor, Marion; Mior, Silvano A; Loisel, Patrick

2014-01-01

The purpose of this study was to develop a model that evaluates the impact of policy changes on the number of workers' compensation lost-time back claims in Ontario, Canada, over a 30-year timeframe. The model was used to test the hypothesis that a theory- and policy-driven model would be sufficient in reproducing historical claims data in a robust manner and that policy changes would have a major impact on modeled data. The model was developed using system dynamics methods in the Vensim simulation program. The theoretical effects of policies for compensation benefit levels and experience rating fees were modeled. The model was built and validated using historical claims data from 1980 to 2009. Sensitivity analysis was used to evaluate the modeled data at extreme end points of variable input and timeframes. The degree of predictive value of the modeled data was measured by the coefficient of determination, root mean square error, and Theil's inequality coefficients. Correlation between modeled data and actual data was found to be meaningful (R(2) = 0.934), and the modeled data were stable at extreme end points. Among the effects explored, policy changes were found to be relatively minor drivers of back claims data, accounting for a 13% improvement in error. Simulation results suggested that unemployment, number of no-lost-time claims, number of injuries per worker, and recovery rate from back injuries outside of claims management to be sensitive drivers of back claims data. A robust systems-based model was developed and tested for use in future policy research in Ontario's workers' compensation. The study findings suggest that certain areas within and outside the workers' compensation system need to be considered when evaluating and changing policies around back claims. © 2014. Published by National University of Health Sciences All rights reserved.

Detection and attribution of extreme weather disasters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huggel, Christian; Stone, Dáithí; Hansen, Gerrit

2014-05-01

Single disasters related to extreme weather events have caused loss and damage on the order of up to tens of billions US dollars over the past years. Recent disasters fueled the debate about whether and to what extent these events are related to climate change. In international climate negotiations disaster loss and damage is now high on the agenda, and related policy mechanisms have been discussed or are being implemented. In view of funding allocation and effective risk reduction strategies detection and attribution to climate change of extreme weather events and disasters is a key issue. Different avenues have so far been taken to address detection and attribution in this context. Physical climate sciences have developed approaches, among others, where variables that are reasonably sampled over climatically relevant time periods and related to the meteorological characteristics of the extreme event are examined. Trends in these variables (e.g. air or sea surface temperatures) are compared between observations and climate simulations with and without anthropogenic forcing. Generally, progress has been made in recent years in attribution of changes in the chance of some single extreme weather events to anthropogenic climate change but there remain important challenges. A different line of research is primarily concerned with losses related to the extreme weather events over time, using disaster databases. A growing consensus is that the increase in asset values and in exposure are main drivers of the strong increase of economic losses over the past several decades, and only a limited number of studies have found trends consistent with expectations from climate change. Here we propose a better integration of existing lines of research in detection and attribution of extreme weather events and disasters by applying a risk framework. Risk is thereby defined as a function of the probability of occurrence of an extreme weather event, and the associated consequences, with consequences being a function of the intensity of the physical weather event, the exposure and value of assets, and vulnerabilities. We have examined selected major extreme events and disasters, including superstorm Sandy in 2012, the Pakistan floods and the heat wave in Russia in 2010, the 2010 floods in Colombia and the 2011 floods in Australia. We systematically analyzed to what extent (anthropogenic) climate change may have contributed to intensity and frequency of the event, along with changes in the other risk variables, to eventually reach a more comprehensive understanding of the relative role of climate change in recent loss and damage of extreme weather events.

Translation of tobacco policy into practice in disadvantaged and marginalized subpopulations: a study of challenges and opportunities in remote Australian Indigenous communities

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background In Australia generally, smoking prevalence more than halved after 1980 and recently commenced to decline among Australia's disadvantaged Indigenous peoples. However, in some remote Indigenous Australian communities in the Northern Territory (NT), extremely high rates of up to 83% have not changed over the past 25 years. The World Health Organisation has called for public health and political leadership to address a global tobacco epidemic. For Indigenous Australians, unprecedented policies aim to overcome disadvantage and close the 'health gap' with reducing tobacco use the top priority. This study identifies challenges and opportunities to implementing these important new tobacco initiatives in remote Indigenous communities. Methods: With little empirical evidence available, we interviewed 82 key stakeholders across the NT representing operational- and management-level service providers, local Indigenous and non-Indigenous participants to identify challenges and opportunities for translating new policies into successful tobacco interventions. Data were analysed using qualitative approaches to identify emergent themes. Results The 20 emergent themes were classified using counts of occasions each theme occurred in the transcribed data as challenge or opportunity. The 'smoke-free policies' theme occurred most frequently as opportunity but infrequently as challenge while 'health workforce capacity' occurred most frequently as challenge but less frequently as opportunity, suggesting that policy implementation is constrained by lack of a skilled workforce. 'Smoking cessation support' occurred frequently as opportunity but also frequently as challenge suggesting that support for individuals requires additional input and attention. Conclusions These results from interviews with local and operational-level participants indicate that current tobacco policies in Australia targeting Indigenous smoking are sound and comprehensive. However, for remote Indigenous Australian communities, local and operational-level participants' views point to an 'implementation gap'. Their views should be heard because they are in a position to provide practical recommendations for effective policy implementation faithful to its design, thereby translating sound policy into meaningful action. Some recommendations may also find a place in culturally diverse low- and middle-income countries. Key words: tobacco policy implementation, challenges, opportunities, remote Indigenous Australian communities. PMID:22839197

Developing and implementing mental health policy in Zanzibar, a low income country off the coast of East Africa

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background The Zanzibar Ministry of Health and Social Welfare, concerned about mental health in the country, requested technical assistance from WHO in 1997. Aims This article describes the facilitation over many years by a WHO Collaborating Centre, of sustainable mental health developments in Zanzibar, one of the poorest countries in the world, using systematic approaches to policy design and implementation. Methods Based on intensive prior situation appraisal and consultation, a multi-faceted set of interventions combining situation appraisal to inform planning; sustained policy dialogue at Union and state levels; development of policy and legislation, development of strategic action plans, establishment of intersectoral national mental health implementation committee, establishment of national mental health coordination system, integration of mental health into primary care, strengthening of primary-secondary care liaison, rationalisation and strengthening of secondary care system, ensuring adequate supply of medicines, use of good practice guidelines and health information systems, development of services for people with intellectual disability, establishment of formal mechanism for close liaison between the mental health services and other governmental, non-governmental and traditional sectors, mental health promotion, suicide prevention, and research and development. Results The policy and legislation introduced in 1999 have resulted in enhanced mental health activities over the ensuing decade, within a setting of extreme low resource. However, advances ebb and flow and continued efforts are required to maintain progress and continue mental health developments. Lessons learnt have informed the development of mental health policies in neighbouring countries. Conclusions A multi-faceted and comprehensive programme can be effective in achieving considerable strengthening of mental health programmes and services even in extremely low resource settings, but requires sustained input and advocacy if gains are to be maintained and enhanced. PMID:21320308

Comprehensive evaluation of transportation projects : a toolkit for sketch planning.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2010-10-01

A quick-response project-planning tool can be extremely valuable in anticipating the congestion, safety, : emissions, and other impacts of large-scale network improvements and policy implementations. This report : identifies the advantages and limita...

Analysis and prediction of operating vehicle load effects on Highway bridges under the weight charge policy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Haiyun; Zhang, Junping; Li, Yonghe

2018-05-01

Under the weight charge policy, the weigh in motion data at a toll station on the Jing-Zhu Expressway were collected. The statistic analysis of vehicle load data was carried out. For calculating the operating vehicle load effects on bridges, by Monte Carlo method used to generate random traffic flow and influence line loading method, the maximum bending moment effect of simple supported beams were obtained. The extreme value I distribution and normal distribution were used to simulate the distribution of the maximum bending moment effect. By the extrapolation of Rice formula and the extreme value I distribution, the predicted values of the maximum load effects were obtained. By comparing with vehicle load effect according to current specification, some references were provided for the management of the operating vehicles and the revision of the bridge specifications.

Down to Earth with a hazard from space: Mapping geoelectric amplitudes for extreme levels of magnetic-storm disturbance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Love, J. J.

2016-12-01

Magnetic-storm induction of geoelectric fields in the Earth's electrically conducting crust, lithosphere, mantle, and ocean can interfere with the operations of electric-power grid systems. The future occurrence of an extremely intense magnetic storm might even result in continental-scale failure of electric-power distribution. Such an event would entail significant deleterious consequence for the economy and international security. Building on a project established by the President's National Science and Technology Council and the Office of Science and Technology Policy for assessing space-weather induction hazards, we develop a series of geoelectric hazard maps. These are constructed using an empirical parameterization of induction: local estimates of Earth-surface impedance, obtained from EarthScope and USGS magnetotelluric survey data, are convolved with latitude-dependent statistical maps of extreme-value geomagnetic activity, obtained from decades magnetic observatory data. Geoelectric hazard maps are constructed for both north-south and east-west geomagnetic variation, and for both 240-s and 1200-s sinusoidal variation -- periods of interest to the power-grid industry. The maps cover about half of the continental United States. They depict the threshold level that geoelectric amplitude can be expected to exceed, on average, once per century at discrete geographic sites in response to extreme-intensity geomagnetic activity. Of the regions where magnetotelluric data are available, the greatest induction hazards are found in Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Iowa - this being the result of both high-latitude geomagntic activity and complex subsurface conductivity structure. At some sites in the continental United States, once-per-century geoelectric amplitudes can exceed the 1.7 V/km realized in Quebec during the March 1989 storm. This work highlights the importance of geophysical surveys and ground-level monitoring data for assessing space-weather induction hazards.

40 CFR 707.20 - Chemical substances import policy.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 30 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Chemical substances import policy. 707... SUBSTANCES CONTROL ACT CHEMICAL IMPORTS AND EXPORTS General Import Requirements and Restrictions § 707.20 Chemical substances import policy. (a) Scope. (1) This statement addresses the policy of the Environmental...

40 CFR 707.20 - Chemical substances import policy.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 31 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Chemical substances import policy. 707... SUBSTANCES CONTROL ACT CHEMICAL IMPORTS AND EXPORTS General Import Requirements and Restrictions § 707.20 Chemical substances import policy. (a) Scope. (1) This statement addresses the policy of the Environmental...

40 CFR 707.20 - Chemical substances import policy.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 32 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false Chemical substances import policy. 707... SUBSTANCES CONTROL ACT CHEMICAL IMPORTS AND EXPORTS General Import Requirements and Restrictions § 707.20 Chemical substances import policy. (a) Scope. (1) This statement addresses the policy of the Environmental...

40 CFR 707.20 - Chemical substances import policy.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 32 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Chemical substances import policy. 707... SUBSTANCES CONTROL ACT CHEMICAL IMPORTS AND EXPORTS General Import Requirements and Restrictions § 707.20 Chemical substances import policy. (a) Scope. (1) This statement addresses the policy of the Environmental...

40 CFR 707.20 - Chemical substances import policy.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 31 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false Chemical substances import policy. 707... SUBSTANCES CONTROL ACT CHEMICAL IMPORTS AND EXPORTS General Import Requirements and Restrictions § 707.20 Chemical substances import policy. (a) Scope. (1) This statement addresses the policy of the Environmental...

Challenges in Relations between Russia and Ukraine over the Next 10 Years

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-03-16

compounds male 20 chauvinism and male chauvinist have gained so much popularity that some users may no longer recall the patriotic and other more generalized...many other countries were becoming independent, at the same time Russia was engaging in a policy of chauvinism . Chauvinism is a form of extreme and...policy of Russian chauvinism throughout the 18th-20th centuries, many nations of Eastern Europe, Central Asia and the southern Caucasus were not only

A qualitative study of junior high school principals' and school food service directors' experiences with the Texas school nutrition policy.

PubMed

Roberts, Stephen M; Pobocik, Rebecca S; Deek, Rima; Besgrove, Ashley; Prostine, Becky A

2009-01-01

The objective of this study was to learn about the experiences of principals and school food service directors with the Texas Public School Nutrition Policy. Semistructured qualitative interviews were conducted to gain first hand reactions to the new nutrition policy. Data were gathered from Texas middle schools. Principals and food service directors from 24 schools randomly selected from 10 Texas Education regions were interviewed. Participants were interviewed about their reactions to the implementation of the Texas School Nutrition Policy. Two researchers, using thematic analysis, independently analyzed each interview. Differences in coding were reconciled and themes were generated. The themes that surfaced included resistance to the policy, policy development process, communication, government role, parental role, food rewards, fund raising, and leadership. Resistance to the policy was not extreme. In the future a wider array of school personnel who are affected by school food regulations should be included in the development of new policies. It is critical to communicate with all concerned parties about the policy.

Nonlinear Impact of Temperature on Mortality in France

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, A. T.

2016-12-01

Anthropogenic climate change is posing unprecedented challenges to human welfare, yet there is much uncertainty about the cost of its impact. Accurate quantification of the social cost of carbon is crucial for designing effective climate policies that reduce emissions and mitigate the adverse impact of global warming, and human health is an important component of the calculation. Despite a growing body of literature documenting the relationship between temperature and mortality in the U.S., similar results using nationwide data have not been clearly established in other countries. Using random monthly variations in temperature for over a decade, this paper finds a statistically significant nonlinear relationship between monthly mortality rate and daily temperature in France between 1998 and 2012. Extremely hot days are associated with significantly higher mortality rates: One additional day with a mean temperature above 30°C, relative to a day in the 12°C to 15°C range, leads to 10 extra all-age, all-gender monthly deaths per 100,000. The effect of cold temperatures is milder: An extremely cold day with an average temperature from -9 °C to -6 °C increases all-age, all-gender mortality rate by about 1.2 per 100,000 each month. There is also notable heterogeneity in the observed nonlinear relationship across age groups and gender, in which males and the elderly are generally more susceptible to extreme temperatures than females and the young. This highlights that children and youth may be well protected through adaptive behaviors, such as spending more time indoors in temperature-controlled rooms and staying hydrated. Compared to studies done in the U.S., extremely hot days >30°C leads to considerably more deaths in France. Preliminary evidence suggests that there has been very limited adaptation despite two prominent heat waves in 2003 and 2006, although further analysis of electricity consumption and air conditioning usage is needed to ascertain the extent to which protective behavior mitigates mortality risks from temperature extremes.

Poverty Dynamics and Academic Trajectories of Children of Immigrants

PubMed Central

Zhang, Liwei

2017-01-01

Using Early Childhood Longitudinal Study, Kindergarten Class of 1998–1999 (ECLS-K), we investigated the relationship between poverty and academic trajectories for children in immigrant families in the United States. We used family socioeconomic status (SES) which considers parental education, parental occupation, and family income to define poverty in correspondence with the U.S. federal poverty threshold. Three dimensions of poverty were examined including depth (i.e., not-poor, near-poor, poor or extreme poor), stability (i.e., continuously or intermittently), and duration (i.e., for how many times in poverty). Our results indicated that living in poverty, particularly when it was extreme, volatile, and for long spell could compromise children’s reading and math achievements during the first nine schooling years. Children of immigrants were doing as well as, if not better than, children of native-borns in certain areas (i.e., math) or in facing of certain pattern of poverty (i.e., long-spell). However, deep poverty and volatile changes in family SES could compromise academic achievements for children of immigrants throughout their first nine years of schooling, a period holds important key to their future success. Implications to practice and policy as well as future directions were discussed. PMID:28926964

Poverty Dynamics and Academic Trajectories of Children of Immigrants.

PubMed

Zhang, Liwei; Han, Wen-Jui

2017-09-16

Using Early Childhood Longitudinal Study, Kindergarten Class of 1998-1999 (ECLS-K), we investigated the relationship between poverty and academic trajectories for children in immigrant families in the United States. We used family socioeconomic status (SES) which considers parental education, parental occupation, and family income to define poverty in correspondence with the U.S. federal poverty threshold. Three dimensions of poverty were examined including depth (i.e., not-poor, near-poor, poor or extreme poor), stability (i.e., continuously or intermittently), and duration (i.e., for how many times in poverty). Our results indicated that living in poverty, particularly when it was extreme, volatile, and for long spell could compromise children's reading and math achievements during the first nine schooling years. Children of immigrants were doing as well as, if not better than, children of native-borns in certain areas (i.e., math) or in facing of certain pattern of poverty (i.e., long-spell). However, deep poverty and volatile changes in family SES could compromise academic achievements for children of immigrants throughout their first nine years of schooling, a period holds important key to their future success. Implications to practice and policy as well as future directions were discussed.

Complex Socio-Ecological Dynamics driven by extreme events in the Amazon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pinho, P. F.

2015-12-01

Several years with extreme floods or droughts in the past decade have caused human suffering in remote communities of the Brazilian Amazon. Despite documented local knowledge and practices for coping with the high seasonal variability characteristic of the region's hydrology (e.g. 10m change in river levels between dry and flood seasons), and despite 'civil Defense' interventions by various levels of government, the more extreme years seem to have exceeded the coping capacity of the community. In this paper, we explore whether there is a real increase in variability, whether the community perceives that recent extreme events are outside the experience which shapes their responses to 'normal' levels of variability, and what science-based policy could contribute to greater local resilience. Hydrological analyses suggest that variability is indeed increasing, in line with expectations from future climate change. However, current measures of hydrological regimes do not predict years with social hardship very well. Interviewees in two regions are able to express their strategies for dealing with 'normal' variability very well, but also identify ways in which abnormal years exceed their ability to cope. Current Civil Defense arrangements struggle to deliver emergency assistance in a sufficiently timely and locally appropriate fashion. Combining these insights in the context of social-ecological change, we suggest how better integration of science, policy and local knowledge could improve resilience to future trends, and identify some contributions science could make into such an arrangement.

Impact assessment of climate change on tourism in the Pacific small islands based on the database of long-term high-resolution climate ensemble experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Watanabe, S.; Utsumi, N.; Take, M.; Iida, A.

2016-12-01

This study aims to develop a new approach to assess the impact of climate change on the small oceanic islands in the Pacific. In the new approach, the change of the probabilities of various situations was projected with considering the spread of projection derived from ensemble simulations, instead of projecting the most probable situation. The database for Policy Decision making for Future climate change (d4PDF) is a database of long-term high-resolution climate ensemble experiments, which has the results of 100 ensemble simulations. We utilized the database for Policy Decision making for Future climate change (d4PDF), which was (a long-term and high-resolution database) composed of results of 100 ensemble experiments. A new methodology, Multi Threshold Ensemble Assessment (MTEA), was developed using the d4PDF in order to assess the impact of climate change. We focused on the impact of climate change on tourism because it has played an important role in the economy of the Pacific Islands. The Yaeyama Region, one of the tourist destinations in Okinawa, Japan, was selected as the case study site. Two kinds of impact were assessed: change in probability of extreme climate phenomena and tourist satisfaction associated with weather. The database of long-term high-resolution climate ensemble experiments and the questionnaire survey conducted by a local government were used for the assessment. The result indicated that the strength of extreme events would be increased, whereas the probability of occurrence would be decreased. This change should result in increase of the number of clear days and it could contribute to improve the tourist satisfaction.

How can policy strengthen community support for children in military families?

PubMed

Boberiene, Liepa V; Hornback, Bradley J

2014-09-01

The extraordinary demands of recent wars have increased burdens on many military families and existing systems of care. The sacrifices made by service members are made also by their children and families, and these sacrifices can have long-term consequences. Therefore, military children and families cannot go unrecognized and unsupported. Policy responses should be less about diagnosing and treating individuals and more about recognizing and supporting families' and communities' resilience in the face of wartime deployment. Policy should focus on identifying military children in diverse communities and supporting them where they live, learn, and receive care. A range of community-based prevention strategies could decrease stress before it escalates into serious mental health issues. Efforts to develop family resilience during deployment and reintegration are extremely important in facilitating children's healthy development and veterans' recovery. Military personnel should partner with community leaders to implement effective programs providing emotional, social, and practical support to families. Emphasizing family cohesion, community social support, and comprehensive programs through education and health care organizations would go a long way in fostering families' resilience. At the same time, pro- grams should be monitored and evaluated, and military and civilian researchers should share data on family risk and resilience to improve evidence- based approaches. Such efforts would benefit not only military children, but also larger populations as programs improve family and community capacity to support thriving and mitigate challenges in the face of adversity.

Risk assessment of precipitation extremes in northern Xinjiang, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Jun; Pei, Ying; Zhang, Yanwei; Ge, Quansheng

2018-05-01

This study was conducted using daily precipitation records gathered at 37 meteorological stations in northern Xinjiang, China, from 1961 to 2010. We used the extreme value theory model, generalized extreme value (GEV) and generalized Pareto distribution (GPD), statistical distribution function to fit outputs of precipitation extremes with different return periods to estimate risks of precipitation extremes and diagnose aridity-humidity environmental variation and corresponding spatial patterns in northern Xinjiang. Spatiotemporal patterns of daily maximum precipitation showed that aridity-humidity conditions of northern Xinjiang could be well represented by the return periods of the precipitation data. Indices of daily maximum precipitation were effective in the prediction of floods in the study area. By analyzing future projections of daily maximum precipitation (2, 5, 10, 30, 50, and 100 years), we conclude that the flood risk will gradually increase in northern Xinjiang. GEV extreme value modeling yielded the best results, proving to be extremely valuable. Through example analysis for extreme precipitation models, the GEV statistical model was superior in terms of favorable analog extreme precipitation. The GPD model calculation results reflect annual precipitation. For most of the estimated sites' 2 and 5-year T for precipitation levels, GPD results were slightly greater than GEV results. The study found that extreme precipitation reaching a certain limit value level will cause a flood disaster. Therefore, predicting future extreme precipitation may aid warnings of flood disaster. A suitable policy concerning effective water resource management is thus urgently required.

When Astronomy Gets Closer to Home: Why space weather outreach is important and how to give it impact

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ferreira, B.

2014-12-01

When the public think about natural hazards, space weather is not the first thing to come to mind. Yet, though uncommon, extreme space weather events can have an economic impact similar to that of large floods or earthquakes. Although there have been efforts across various sectors of society to communicate this topic, many people are still quite confused about it, having only a limited understanding of the relevance of space weather in their daily lives. As such, it is crucial to properly communicate this topic to a variety of audiences. This article explores why we should communicate space weather research, how it can be framed for different audiences and how researchers, science communicators, policy makers and the public can raise awareness of the topic.

Rubella in Israel after the MMR vaccine: elimination or containment?

PubMed

Anis, Emilia; Grotto, Itamar; Moerman, Larisa; Kaliner, Ehud; Warshavsky, Bruce; Slater, Paul E; Lev, Boaz

2013-05-01

Since 1996, after the full institution of the two-dose measles, mumps, and rubella vaccine (MMR) regimen in Israel, rubella incidence has declined dramatically and has remained extremely low. Cyclical outbreaks ended; the two brief outbreaks that did occur were quickly contained; and epidemiological data indicate that the disease is practically absent from the country. But similar steep declines in the incidence of measles and mumps, the two other MMR-preventable diseases, were followed by major outbreaks in 2007 and 2010. Epidemiological analyses show that undervaccination of subgroups within the Jewish ultra-orthodox population, both in Israel and abroad, and virus importation into Israel, continue to be risk factors for all three MMR-preventable diseases. Israel's public health system, therefore, should focus on a policy of containment: improve MMR coverage among undervaccinated subgroups and assure that virus importation is no longer a risk. Then the goal of rubella elimination will become feasible. We discuss how the Israeli experience may contribute to the World Health Organization Initiative to eliminate simultaneously measles and rubella.

Evaluation on uncertainty sources in projecting hydrological changes over the Xijiang River basin in South China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuan, Fei; Zhao, Chongxu; Jiang, Yong; Ren, Liliang; Shan, Hongcui; Zhang, Limin; Zhu, Yonghua; Chen, Tao; Jiang, Shanhu; Yang, Xiaoli; Shen, Hongren

2017-11-01

Projections of hydrological changes are associated with large uncertainties from different sources, which should be quantified for an effective implementation of water management policies adaptive to future climate change. In this study, a modeling chain framework to project future hydrological changes and the associated uncertainties in the Xijiang River basin, South China, was established. The framework consists of three emission scenarios (ESs), four climate models (CMs), four statistical downscaling (SD) methods, four hydrological modeling (HM) schemes, and four probability distributions (PDs) for extreme flow frequency analyses. Direct variance method was adopted to analyze the manner by which uncertainty sources such as ES, CM, SD, and HM affect the estimates of future evapotranspiration (ET) and streamflow, and to quantify the uncertainties of PDs in future flood and drought risk assessment. Results show that ES is one of the least important uncertainty sources in most situations. CM, in general, is the dominant uncertainty source for the projections of monthly ET and monthly streamflow during most of the annual cycle, daily streamflow below the 99.6% quantile level, and extreme low flow. SD is the most predominant uncertainty source in the projections of extreme high flow, and has a considerable percentage of uncertainty contribution in monthly streamflow projections in July-September. The effects of SD in other cases are negligible. HM is a non-ignorable uncertainty source that has the potential to produce much larger uncertainties for the projections of low flow and ET in warm and wet seasons than for the projections of high flow. PD contributes a larger percentage of uncertainty in extreme flood projections than it does in extreme low flow estimates. Despite the large uncertainties in hydrological projections, this work found that future extreme low flow would undergo a considerable reduction, and a noticeable increase in drought risk in the Xijiang River basin would be expected. Thus, the necessity of employing effective water-saving techniques and adaptive water resources management strategies for drought disaster mitigation should be addressed.

Modeling Sustainability: Population, Inequality, Consumption, and Bidirectional Coupling of the Earth and Human Systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Motesharrei, Safa; Rivas, Jorge; Kalnay, Eugenia

Over the last two centuries, the impact of the Human System has grown dramatically, becoming strongly dominant within the Earth System in many different ways. Consumption, inequality, and population have increased extremely fast, especially since about 1950, threatening to overwhelm the many critical functions and ecosystems of the Earth System. Changes in the Earth System, in turn, have important feedback effects on the Human System, with costly and potentially serious consequences. However, current models do not incorporate these critical feedbacks. Here, we argue that in order to understand the dynamics of either system, Earth System Models must be coupled withmore » Human System Models through bidirectional couplings representing the positive, negative, and delayed feedbacks that exist in the real systems. In particular, key Human System variables, such as demographics, inequality, economic growth, and migration, are not coupled with the Earth System but are instead driven by exogenous estimates, such as United Nations population projections.This makes current models likely to miss important feedbacks in the real Earth–Human system, especially those that may result in unexpected or counterintuitive outcomes, and thus requiring different policy interventions from current models. Lastly, the importance and imminence of sustainability challenges, the dominant role of the Human System in the Earth System, and the essential roles the Earth System plays for the Human System, all call for collaboration of natural scientists, social scientists, and engineers in multidisciplinary research and modeling to develop coupled Earth–Human system models for devising effective science-based policies and measures to benefit current and future generations.« less

Modeling Sustainability: Population, Inequality, Consumption, and Bidirectional Coupling of the Earth and Human Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Motesharrei, Safa; Rivas, Jorge; Kalnay, Eugenia; Asrar, Ghassem R.; Busalacchi, Antonio J.; Cahalan, Robert F.; Cane, Mark A.; Colwell, Rita R.; Feng, Kuishuang; Franklin, Rachel S.;

Modeling Sustainability: Population, Inequality, Consumption, and Bidirectional Coupling of the Earth and Human Systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Motesharrei, Safa; Rivas, Jorge; Kalnay, Eugenia

Over the last two centuries, the impact of the Human System has grown dramatically, becoming strongly dominant within the Earth System in many different ways. Consumption, inequality, and population have increased extremely fast, especially since about 1950, threatening to overwhelm the many critical functions and ecosystems of the Earth System. Changes in the Earth System, in turn, have important feedback effects on the Human System, with costly and potentially serious consequences. However, current models do not incorporate these critical feedbacks. We argue that in order to understand the dynamics of either system, Earth System Models must be coupled with Humanmore » System Models through bidirectional couplings representing the positive, negative, and delayed feedbacks that exist in the real systems. In particular, key Human System variables, such as demographics, inequality, economic growth, and migration, are not coupled with the Earth System but are instead driven by exogenous estimates, such as United Nations population projections. This makes current models likely to miss important feedbacks in the real Earth–Human system, especially those that may result in unexpected or counterintuitive outcomes, and thus requiring different policy interventions from current models. The importance and imminence of sustainability challenges, the dominant role of the Human System in the Earth System, and the essential roles the Earth System plays for the Human System, all call for collaboration of natural scientists, social scientists, and engineers in multidisciplinary research and modeling to develop coupled Earth–Human system models for devising effective science-based policies and measures to benefit current and future generations.« less

Modeling Sustainability: Population, Inequality, Consumption, and Bidirectional Coupling of the Earth and Human Systems

DOE PAGES

Motesharrei, Safa; Rivas, Jorge; Kalnay, Eugenia; ...

2016-12-11

Over the last two centuries, the impact of the Human System has grown dramatically, becoming strongly dominant within the Earth System in many different ways. Consumption, inequality, and population have increased extremely fast, especially since about 1950, threatening to overwhelm the many critical functions and ecosystems of the Earth System. Changes in the Earth System, in turn, have important feedback effects on the Human System, with costly and potentially serious consequences. However, current models do not incorporate these critical feedbacks. Here, we argue that in order to understand the dynamics of either system, Earth System Models must be coupled withmore » Human System Models through bidirectional couplings representing the positive, negative, and delayed feedbacks that exist in the real systems. In particular, key Human System variables, such as demographics, inequality, economic growth, and migration, are not coupled with the Earth System but are instead driven by exogenous estimates, such as United Nations population projections.This makes current models likely to miss important feedbacks in the real Earth–Human system, especially those that may result in unexpected or counterintuitive outcomes, and thus requiring different policy interventions from current models. Lastly, the importance and imminence of sustainability challenges, the dominant role of the Human System in the Earth System, and the essential roles the Earth System plays for the Human System, all call for collaboration of natural scientists, social scientists, and engineers in multidisciplinary research and modeling to develop coupled Earth–Human system models for devising effective science-based policies and measures to benefit current and future generations.« less

Global Phosphorus Fertilizer Market and National Policies: A Case Study Revisiting the 2008 Price Peak.

PubMed

Khabarov, Nikolay; Obersteiner, Michael

2017-01-01

The commodity market super-cycle and food price crisis have been associated with rampant food insecurity and the Arab spring. A multitude of factors were identified as culprits for excessive volatility on the commodity markets. However, as it regards fertilizers, a clear attribution of market drivers explaining the emergence of extreme price events is still missing. In this paper, we provide a quantitative assessment of the price spike of the global phosphorus fertilizer market in 2008 focusing on diammonium phosphate (DAP). We find that fertilizer market policies in India, the largest global importer of phosphorus fertilizers and phosphate rock, turned out to be a major contributor to the global price spike. India doubled its import of P-fertilizer in 2008 at a time when prices doubled. The analysis of a wide set of factors pertinent to the 2008 price spike in phosphorus fertilizer market leads us to the discovery of a price spike magnification and triggering mechanisms. We find that the price spike was magnified on the one hand by protective trade measures of fertilizer suppliers leading to a 19% drop in global phosphate fertilizer export. On the other hand, the Indian fertilizer subsidy scheme led to farmers not adjusting their demand for fertilizer. The triggering mechanism appeared to be the Indian production outage of P-fertilizer resulting in the additional import demand for DAP in size of about 20% of annual global supply. The main conclusion is that these three factors have jointly caused the spike, underscoring the need for ex ante improvements in fertilizer market regulation on both national and international levels.

Uncertainty in macroeconomic policy-making: art or science?

PubMed

Aikman, David; Barrett, Philip; Kapadia, Sujit; King, Mervyn; Proudman, James; Taylor, Tim; de Weymarn, Iain; Yates, Tony

2011-12-13

Uncertainty is pervasive in economic policy-making. Modern economies share similarities with other complex systems in their unpredictability. But economic systems also differ from those in the natural sciences because outcomes are affected by the state of beliefs of the systems' participants. The dynamics of beliefs and how they interact with economic outcomes can be rich and unpredictable. This paper relates these ideas to the recent crisis, which has reminded us that we need a financial system that is resilient in the face of the unpredictable and extreme. It also highlights how such uncertainty puts a premium on sound communication strategies by policy-makers. This creates challenges in informing others about the uncertainties in the economy, and how policy is set in the face of those uncertainties. We show how the Bank of England tries to deal with some of these challenges in its communications about monetary policy.

Alexandra Masaitis, UNR NV, USA. PhD Grad St. Principles of Adoption of the Successful Environmental Policies and Practices Used in Developed Countries into the Russian Mining Industry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Masaitis, A.

2012-12-01

The successful implementation of the environmental policies in the mining industry is of a paramount importance, as it not only prevents both local and trans-border pollution but also guarantees a clean and healthy environment for the people regardless of their place of habitation. It is especially important to encourage the progress of the environmental policy implementation in less regulated countries such as the Russia because such countries have resource-oriented economy based on development of nonrenewable resources. Poor environmental practices in such countries will lead to local environmental crises that could eventually spill into surrounding countries including the most economically advanced. This abstract is a summary of a two-year research project attempted (1) to determine deficiencies of the Russian mining sector ecological policies and (2) to suggest substitute policies from developed countries that could be adapted to the Russian reality. The following research methods were used: 1. The method of the system analysis, where the system is an interaction of the sets of environmental policies; 2. The comparative method of inquiry, 3. Quantitative data analysis, where data was collected from "The collection of statistic data", the US EPA open reports, and the USGS Reports; 4. Review of the Norilsk Nickel Company annual reports. The following results were obtained: Identified the systemic crisis of the ecological environmental policies in the Russian mining sector based on the development of nonrenewable resources, in the absence of the ecological interest by the mining companies that lack mechanisms of environmental and public health protection, the lack of insurance policy, the lack of risk assessment, and in the presence of the audit and monitoring that do not address the local conditions. Based on the above, the following concepts were thought of to improve the environmental conditions in the Russian mining sector: 1. Was developed the Regional Environmental Management principle based on the local conditions; 2. Devised were criteria for the risk assessment for mining operations in Russia. Where the fundamental principals were public health, environmental and biodiversity impact, long- and short- term rehabilitation plans, compliance with international standards and norms. Every criterion has grade level of probability that directly affects quarterly fees. 3. Developed was the mechanism of the economic motivation to make mining operations "environmentally friendly" that includes defrayal of expenses from both direct and indirect damages. 4. Identified were spheres of possible cooperation between mining companies, government organizations, and the NGOs. These include development of standards for Good Neighbor Agreement, exchange of environmental information, international exchange of successful environmental, health, and safety practices. The study showed the necessity for the Russian Federation mining industry to adopt the more successful environmental policies and practices used in developed countries. To achieve this goal the Regional Environmental Management principle, the risk assessment criteria, the mechanism of the economic motivation, and the principles for international cooperation can play an extremely important role.

A systematic review of pathways to and processes associated with radicalization and extremism amongst Muslims in Western societies.

PubMed

McGilloway, Angela; Ghosh, Priyo; Bhui, Kamaldeep

2015-02-01

Following the terrorist attacks of 9/11 in the USA and 7/7 in the UK, academic interest in factors involved in radicalization and terrorism has increased dramatically. Many related social and psychological theories have been put forward, however terrorism literature still lacks empirical research. In particular, little is known about the early processes and pathways to radicalization. Our aim is to investigate original research on pathways and processes associated with radicalization and extremism amongst people of Muslim heritage living in Western societies, that is, the group prioritized by counter-terrorism policy. Studies included in the review were original qualitative or quantitative primary research published in peer-reviewed journals, identified by searching research databases. All disciplines of journals were included. No single cause or pathway was implicated in radicalization and violent extremism. Individuals may demonstrate vulnerabilities that increase exposure to radicalization; however, the only common characteristic determined that terrorists are generally well-integrated, 'normal' individuals. Engagement in such activity is dependent on a wide range of interacting variables influenced by personal, localized and externalized factors. Further research should examine broader determinants of radicalization in susceptible populations. Future policy should follow this public health approach rather than constructing from perpetrators already committed to engaging in terrorism.

Should child obesity be an issue for child protective services? A call for more research on this critical public health issue.

PubMed

Jones, Deborah J; Gonzalez, Michelle; Ward, Dianne S; Vaughn, Amber; Emunah, Josie; Miller, Lindsey; Anton, Margaret

2014-04-01

Given the lasting effects on adolescent and adult health, childhood obesity is a major public health issue. The relatively slow progress toward the prevention and treatment of childhood obesity, however, has prompted leaders in both academic and practice sectors to advocate for what may be considered a radical intervention approach, to conceptualize extreme child obesity as an issue of child maltreatment. Advocates of this approach suggest that this conceptualization affords a new angle for intervention-the involvement of child protective services (CPS) in mandating family-focused lifestyle changes aimed at reducing child overweight and, in the most extreme cases, the removal of the obese child from the home. However, surprisingly little research has been conducted to inform policies or practices consistent with this recommendation, which is already being implemented in some states. This article aims to provide an overview of the challenges to the prevention and treatment of childhood obesity that have motivated the call for CPS involvement in extreme cases and to review the existing research related to this approach. Given that relatively little data are currently available to support or refute the merits of CPS involvement, recommendations for future research that would better inform public policy and decision making regarding this and other intervention strategies are also highlighted.

Neighbourhood green space, physical function and participation in physical activities among elderly men: the Caerphilly Prospective study

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background The built environment in which older people live plays an important role in promoting or inhibiting physical activity. Most work on this complex relationship between physical activity and the environment has excluded people with reduced physical function or ignored the difference between groups with different levels of physical function. This study aims to explore the role of neighbourhood green space in determining levels of participation in physical activity among elderly men with different levels of lower extremity physical function. Method Using data collected from the Caerphilly Prospective Study (CaPS) and green space data collected from high resolution Landmap true colour aerial photography, we first investigated the effect of the quantity of neighbourhood green space and the variation in neighbourhood vegetation on participation in physical activity for 1,010 men aged 66 and over in Caerphilly county borough, Wales, UK. Second, we explored whether neighbourhood green space affects groups with different levels of lower extremity physical function in different ways. Results Increasing percentage of green space within a 400 meters radius buffer around the home was significantly associated with more participation in physical activity after adjusting for lower extremity physical function, psychological distress, general health, car ownership, age group, marital status, social class, education level and other environmental factors (OR = 1.21, 95% CI 1.05, 1.41). A statistically significant interaction between the variation in neighbourhood vegetation and lower extremity physical function was observed (OR = 1.92, 95% CI 1.12, 3.28). Conclusion Elderly men living in neighbourhoods with more green space have higher levels of participation in regular physical activity. The association between variation in neighbourhood vegetation and regular physical activity varied according to lower extremity physical function. Subjects reporting poor lower extremity physical function living in neighbourhoods with more homogeneous vegetation (i.e. low variation) were more likely to participate in regular physical activity than those living in neighbourhoods with less homogeneous vegetation (i.e. high variation). Good lower extremity physical function reduced the adverse effect of high variation vegetation on participation in regular physical activity. This provides a basis for the future development of novel interventions that aim to increase levels of physical activity in later life, and has implications for planning policy to design, preserve, facilitate and encourage the use of green space near home. PMID:24646136

Neighbourhood green space, physical function and participation in physical activities among elderly men: the Caerphilly Prospective study.

PubMed

Gong, Yi; Gallacher, John; Palmer, Stephen; Fone, David

2014-03-19

The built environment in which older people live plays an important role in promoting or inhibiting physical activity. Most work on this complex relationship between physical activity and the environment has excluded people with reduced physical function or ignored the difference between groups with different levels of physical function. This study aims to explore the role of neighbourhood green space in determining levels of participation in physical activity among elderly men with different levels of lower extremity physical function. Using data collected from the Caerphilly Prospective Study (CaPS) and green space data collected from high resolution Landmap true colour aerial photography, we first investigated the effect of the quantity of neighbourhood green space and the variation in neighbourhood vegetation on participation in physical activity for 1,010 men aged 66 and over in Caerphilly county borough, Wales, UK. Second, we explored whether neighbourhood green space affects groups with different levels of lower extremity physical function in different ways. Increasing percentage of green space within a 400 meters radius buffer around the home was significantly associated with more participation in physical activity after adjusting for lower extremity physical function, psychological distress, general health, car ownership, age group, marital status, social class, education level and other environmental factors (OR = 1.21, 95% CI 1.05, 1.41). A statistically significant interaction between the variation in neighbourhood vegetation and lower extremity physical function was observed (OR = 1.92, 95% CI 1.12, 3.28). Elderly men living in neighbourhoods with more green space have higher levels of participation in regular physical activity. The association between variation in neighbourhood vegetation and regular physical activity varied according to lower extremity physical function. Subjects reporting poor lower extremity physical function living in neighbourhoods with more homogeneous vegetation (i.e. low variation) were more likely to participate in regular physical activity than those living in neighbourhoods with less homogeneous vegetation (i.e. high variation). Good lower extremity physical function reduced the adverse effect of high variation vegetation on participation in regular physical activity. This provides a basis for the future development of novel interventions that aim to increase levels of physical activity in later life, and has implications for planning policy to design, preserve, facilitate and encourage the use of green space near home.

Denial of Treatment to Obese Patients—the Wrong Policy on Personal Responsibility for Health

PubMed Central

Eyal, Nir

2013-01-01

In many countries around the world, including Iran, obesity is reaching epidemic proportions. Doctors have recently taken, or expressed support for, an extreme ‘personal responsibility for health’ policy against obesity: refusing services to obese patients. This policy may initially seem to improve patients’ incentives to fight obesity. But turning access to medical services into a benefit dependent on health improvement is bad policy. It conditions the very aid that patients need in order to become healthier on success in becoming healthier. Whatever else we may think of personal responsibility for health policies, this particular one is absurd. Unfortunately, quite a few personal responsibility for health policies use similar absurd conditioning. They mistakenly use as ‘carrots’ or ‘sticks’ for adherence the basic means to the same health outcomes that they seek to promote. This perspective proposes the following rule of thumb: any conditional incentive for healthy choice should be in a currency other than the basic means to that healthy choice. PMID:24596846

Policy issues in space analogues

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Auger, Robin N.; Facktor, Debra D.

Space mission planning is increasingly focusing on destinations beyond Earth orbit. Advancements in technology will inevitably be required to enable long-duration human spaceflight missions, and breakthroughs in the policy arena will also be needed to achieve success in such missions. By exploring how policy issues have been addressed in analogous extreme environments, policymakers can develop a framework for addressing these issues as they apply to long-term human spaceflight. Policy issues that need to be addressed include: crew selection, training, organization, and activities, medical testing, illness, injury, and death; communication; legal accountability and liability; mission safety and risk management; and environmental contamination. This paper outlines the approach of a study underway by The George Washington University and ANSER to examine how these policy issues have been addressed in several analogues and how the experiences of these analogues can help formulate policies for long-duration human spaceflight missions. Analogues being studied include Antarctic bases, submarine voyages, undersea stations, Biosphere 2, and the U.S. Skylab and Russian Mir space stations.

Who Really Failed? Commentary

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Maiuri, Katherine M.; Leon, Raul A.

2012-01-01

Scott Jaschik's (2010) article "Who Really Failed?" details the experience of Dominique Homberger, a tenured faculty member at Louisiana State University (LSU) who was removed from teaching her introductory biology course citing student complaints in regards to "the extreme nature" of the grading policy. This removal has…

U.S National cropland soil moisture monitoring using SMAP

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Crop condition information is critical for public and private sector decision making that concerns agricultural policy, food production, food security, and food commodity prices. Crop conditions change quickly due to various growing condition events, such as temperature extremes, soil moisture defic...

The effects of country-level population policy for enhancing adaptation to climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gunasekara, N. K.; Kazama, S.; Yamazaki, D.; Oki, T.

2012-08-01

The effectiveness of population policy scenarios in reducing the combined impacts of population change and climate change on water resources is explored. One no-policy scenario and two scenarios with population policy assumptions are employed in combination with water availability under the SRES scenarios A1b, B1 and A2 for the impact analysis. The population data used are from the World Bank. The river discharges per grid of horizontal resolution 0.5° are obtained from the Total Runoff Integrating Pathways (TRIP) of the University of Tokyo, Japan. Unlike the population scenarios utilized in the SRES emission scenarios and the newest Representative Concentration Pathways, the scenarios employed in this research are based, even after 2050, on country-level rather than regional growth assumptions. Our analysis implies that in combination with a more heterogeneous pattern of population changes across the world, a more convergent, environmentally friendly emissions scenario, such as B1, can result in a high-impact climate scenario, similar to A2, for the already water-stressed low latitudes. However, the effect of population change supersedes the changes in the climate scenarios. In 2100, Africa, Middle-East and parts of Asia are in extreme water-stress under all scenarios. For countries with high population momentum, the population policy scenario with fertility-reduction assumptions gained a maximum of 6.1 times the water availability in Niger and 5.3 times that in Uganda compared with the no-policy scenario. Most of these countries are in Sub-Saharan Africa. These countries represent 24.5% of the global population in the no-policy scenario and the scenario with fertility- reduction assumptions reduces it to 8.7% by 2100. This scenario is also effective at reducing the area under extreme water stress in these countries. However, the policy scenario with assumptions of population stabilization at the replacement fertility rate increases the water stress in high-latitude countries. Nevertheless, the impact is low due to the high per capita water availability in the region. This research is expected to widen the understanding of the combined impacts of climate change in the future and of the strategies needed to enhance the space for adaptation.

The 2010 U.S. health care reform: approaching and avoiding how other countries finance health care.

PubMed

White, Joseph

2013-07-01

This article describes and analyzes the U.S. health care legislation of 2010 by asking how far it was designed to move the U.S. system in the direction of practices in all other rich democracies. The enacted U.S. reform could be described, extremely roughly, as Japanese pooling with Swiss and American problems at American prices. Its policies are distinctive, yet nevertheless somewhat similar to examples in other rich democracies, on two important dimensions: how risks are pooled and the amount of funds redistributed to subsidize care for people with lower incomes. Policies about compelling people to contribute to a finance system would be further from international norms, as would the degree to which coverage is set by clear and common substantive standards--that is, standardization of benefits. The reform would do least, however, to move the United States toward international practices for controlling spending. This in turn is a major reason why the results would include less standard benefits and incomplete coverage. In short, the United States would remain an outlier on coverage less because of a failure to make an effort to redistribute--a lack of solidarity--than due to a failure to control costs.

COMPARISON OF TREE SPECIES SENSITIVITY TO HIGH AND LOW EXTREME HYDROCLIMATIC EVENTS. (R825381)

EPA Science Inventory

The perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Concl...

Brainstorming transformative solutions - Sustainable Puerto ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This narrative scenario depicts one of many possible futures for the island of Puerto Rico in which the goals of energy and food supply resilience have been met. Set in the year 2080, the narrative describes a series of hypothetical (but possible) events, a set of proactive governance actions and policies, and citizen responses to those events and interventions. The narrative is based on expert-opinion and extrapolation of trends in energy markets, technology, and policy development, as well as recent events in Puerto Rico. This narrative was developed as part of a futures exercise, and the outputs of a recent stakeholder and expert workshop, to inform modeling efforts underway by a coalition of researchers and local stakeholders -- an NSF-funded project entitled, Urban Resilience to Extreme Events. This narrative, which describes one of many potential energy futures for the island of Puerto Rico, uses expert opinion and extrapolation of recent trends in energy markets, technology, and policy development to describe a scenario in which Puerto Rico has achieved recently stated goals for energy and food systems resilience and sustainability. It will be used along with the outputs of a recent stakeholder workshop to inform model building. The document will be posted in the Urban Resilience to Extreme Events Research Network's blog.

[Extreme types - a comparison of public health systems in Thuringia and the Warthegau].

PubMed

Vossen, J

2013-11-01

Special policing measures in Nazi Germany required centralisation in the public health service which was mainly achieved through the Law for the Unification of Municipal and State Health Administration in 1934. The long-term aim for public health officers was now hereditary and racial welfare. Several following legal regulations contributed to the implementation of a specific national-socialist health and social policy on the basis of racial hygiene and gave immense power to the health officers. Especially with the Law for the Prevention of Hereditarily Sick Offspring, compulsory sterilisation was legalised and resulted in about 400,000 victims up to 1945. The central force in this new system was the public health office. The most extreme variation of public health administration was launched in Thuringia, where professional powers and state authority implemented an extensive institutional machinery which managed to reinforce Nazi population policy almost to perfection. After the invasion of western Poland the Germans built up an inhumane regime in the annexed and occupied regions, persecuted and murdered the Polish population and tried to exterminate the Jewish people. Here the health officers of the Warthegau could promote a rigorously racial dominated population policy of segregation. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

Contemporary (post-Wills) survey of the views of Australian medical researchers: importance of funding, infrastructure and motivators for a research career.

PubMed

Shewan, Louise G; Glatz, Jane A; Bennett, Christine C; Coats, Andrew J S

To investigate the perceptions of Australian health and medical researchers 4 years after the Wills Report recommended and led to a substantial increase in health and medical research funding in Australia. A telephone poll of 501 active health and medical researchers, conducted between 28 April and 5 May, 2003. Researchers' views on the adequacy of funding, infrastructure and support, salary, community recognition, the excitement of discovery and research outcomes such as publication and patenting in research. Research funding was the most important concern: 91% of researchers (455/498) viewed funding as "very" or "extremely" important to their role, but only 10% (52/500) were "very" or "extremely" satisfied with the level of funding. Research infrastructure and support were seen as "very" or "extremely" important by 90% of researchers (449/501), while only 21% (104/501) were "very" or "extremely" satisfied. Researchers in medical research institutes were significantly more likely to be satisfied (27% [56/205] "very" or "extremely" satisfied) with the level of infrastructure and support than those working in universities (15% [41/268] "very" or "extremely" satisfied; P = 0.001). Among the factors that motivate researchers, the excitement of discovery stood out in terms of both high importance and satisfaction. Publications were viewed as more important research outcomes than patenting or commercial ventures. Funding and infrastructure support remain overwhelmingly researchers' greatest concerns. University-based researchers were less satisfied with infrastructure and support than those in independent medical research institutes.

Demography and Public Health Emergency Preparedness: Making the Connection

PubMed Central

Katz, Rebecca

2009-01-01

The tools and techniques of population sciences are extremely relevant to the discipline of public health emergency preparedness: protecting and securing the population’s health requires information about that population. While related fields such as security studies have successfully integrated demographic tools into their research and literature, the theoretical and practical connection between the methods of demography and the practice of public health emergency preparedness is weak. This article suggests the need to further the interdisciplinary use of demography by examining the need for a systematic use of population science techniques in public health emergency preparedness. Ultimately, we demonstrate how public health emergency preparedness can incorporate demography to develop more effective preparedness plans. Important policy implications emerge: demographers and preparedness experts need to collaborate more formally in order to facilitate community resilience and mitigate the consequences of public health emergencies. PMID:20694030

Costs of Physician-Hospital Integration

PubMed Central

Cho, Na-Eun

2015-01-01

Abstract Given that the enactment of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act of 2010 is expected to generate forces toward physician-hospital integration, this study examined an understudied, albeit important, area of costs incurred in physician-hospital integration. Such costs were analyzed through 24 semi-structured interviews with physicians and hospital administrators in a multiple-case, inductive study. Two extreme types of physician-hospital arrangements were examined: an employed model (ie, integrated salary model, a group of physicians integrated by a hospital system) and a private practice (ie, a physician or group of physicians who are independent of economic or policy control). Interviews noted that integration leads to 3 evident costs, namely, monitoring, coordination, and cooperation costs. Improving our understanding of the kinds of costs that are incurred after physician-hospital integration will help hospitals and physicians to avoid common failures after integration. PMID:26496300

Effects of behavioral response and vaccination policy on epidemic spreading--an approach based on evolutionary-game dynamics.

PubMed

Zhang, Hai-Feng; Wu, Zhi-Xi; Tang, Ming; Lai, Ying-Cheng

2014-07-11

How effective are governmental incentives to achieve widespread vaccination coverage so as to prevent epidemic outbreak? The answer largely depends on the complex interplay among the type of incentive, individual behavioral responses, and the intrinsic epidemic dynamics. By incorporating evolutionary games into epidemic dynamics, we investigate the effects of two types of incentives strategies: partial-subsidy policy in which certain fraction of the cost of vaccination is offset, and free-subsidy policy in which donees are randomly selected and vaccinated at no cost. Through mean-field analysis and computations, we find that, under the partial-subsidy policy, the vaccination coverage depends monotonically on the sensitivity of individuals to payoff difference, but the dependence is non-monotonous for the free-subsidy policy. Due to the role models of the donees for relatively irrational individuals and the unchanged strategies of the donees for rational individuals, the free-subsidy policy can in general lead to higher vaccination coverage. Our findings indicate that any disease-control policy should be exercised with extreme care: its success depends on the complex interplay among the intrinsic mathematical rules of epidemic spreading, governmental policies, and behavioral responses of individuals.

Effects of behavioral response and vaccination policy on epidemic spreading - an approach based on evolutionary-game dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Hai-Feng; Wu, Zhi-Xi; Tang, Ming; Lai, Ying-Cheng

2014-07-01

How effective are governmental incentives to achieve widespread vaccination coverage so as to prevent epidemic outbreak? The answer largely depends on the complex interplay among the type of incentive, individual behavioral responses, and the intrinsic epidemic dynamics. By incorporating evolutionary games into epidemic dynamics, we investigate the effects of two types of incentives strategies: partial-subsidy policy in which certain fraction of the cost of vaccination is offset, and free-subsidy policy in which donees are randomly selected and vaccinated at no cost. Through mean-field analysis and computations, we find that, under the partial-subsidy policy, the vaccination coverage depends monotonically on the sensitivity of individuals to payoff difference, but the dependence is non-monotonous for the free-subsidy policy. Due to the role models of the donees for relatively irrational individuals and the unchanged strategies of the donees for rational individuals, the free-subsidy policy can in general lead to higher vaccination coverage. Our findings indicate that any disease-control policy should be exercised with extreme care: its success depends on the complex interplay among the intrinsic mathematical rules of epidemic spreading, governmental policies, and behavioral responses of individuals.

Changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in western central Africa, Guinea Conakry, and Zimbabwe, 1955-2006

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aguilar, E.; Aziz Barry, A.; Brunet, M.; Ekang, L.; Fernandes, A.; Massoukina, M.; Mbah, J.; Mhanda, A.; Do Nascimento, D. J.; Peterson, T. C.; Thamba Umba, O.; Tomou, M.; Zhang, X.

2009-01-01

Understanding how extremes are changing globally, regionally, and locally is an important first step for planning appropriate adaptation measures, as changes in extremes have major impacts. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's synthesis of global extremes was not able to say anything about western central Africa, as no analysis of the region was available nor was there an adequate internationally exchanged long-term daily data set available to use for analysis of extremes. This paper presents the first analysis of extremes in this climatically important region along with analysis of Guinea Conakry and Zimbabwe. As per many other parts of the world, the analysis shows a decrease in cold extremes and an increase in warm extremes. However, while the majority of the analyzed world has shown an increase in heavy precipitation over the last half century, central Africa showed a decrease. Furthermore, the companion analysis of Guinea Conakry and Zimbabwe showed no significant increases.

Deja Vu--The Access/Success Pendulum

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gandara, Patricia; Orfield, Gary

2010-01-01

In education, reform tends to follow cycles, often bouncing from one extreme to another without considering the possibility of incorporating multiple perspectives simultaneously. Policies aimed at helping more underrepresented students enter college and complete degrees have bounced from one pole to another, embracing access as the primary goal…

On Regional Modeling to Support Air Quality Policies

EPA Science Inventory

We examine the use of the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model in simulating the changes in the extreme values of air quality that are of interest to the regulatory agencies. Year-to-year changes in ozone air quality are attributable to variations in the prevailing mete...

Mental disease-related emergency admissions attributable to hot temperatures.

PubMed

Lee, Suji; Lee, Hwanhee; Myung, Woojae; Kim, E Jin; Kim, Ho

2018-03-01

The association between high temperature and mental disease has been the focus of several studies worldwide. However, no studies have focused on the mental disease burden attributable to hot temperature. Here, we aim to quantify the risk attributed to hot temperatures based on the exposure-lag-response relationship between temperature and mental diseases. From data on daily temperature and emergency admissions (EA) for mental diseases collected from 6 major cities (Seoul, Incheon, Daejeon, Daegu, Busan, and Gwangju in South Korea) over a period of 11years (2003-2013), we estimated temperature-disease associations using a distributed lag non-linear model, and we pooled the data by city through multivariate meta-analysis. Cumulative relative risk and attributable risks were calculated for extreme hot temperatures, defined as the 99th percentile relative to the 50th percentile of temperatures. The strongest association between mental disease and high temperature was seen within a period of 0-4days of high temperature exposure. Our results reveal that 14.6% of EA for mental disease were due to extreme hot temperatures, and the elderly were more susceptible (19.1%). Specific mental diseases, including anxiety, dementia, schizophrenia, and depression, also showed significant risk attributed to hot temperatures. Of all EA for anxiety, 31.6% were attributed to extremely hot temperatures. High temperature was responsible for an attributable risk for mental disease, and the burden was higher in the elderly. This finding has important implications for designing appropriate public health policies to minimize the impact of high temperature on mental health. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A decision-analytic approach to predict state regulation of hydraulic fracturing.

PubMed

Linkov, Igor; Trump, Benjamin; Jin, David; Mazurczak, Marcin; Schreurs, Miranda

2014-01-01

The development of horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing methods has dramatically increased the potential for the extraction of previously unrecoverable natural gas. Nonetheless, the potential risks and hazards associated with such technologies are not without controversy and are compounded by frequently changing information and an uncertain landscape of international politics and laws. Where each nation has its own energy policies and laws, predicting how a state with natural gas reserves that require hydraulic fracturing will regulate the industry is of paramount importance for potential developers and extractors. We present a method for predicting hydraulic fracturing decisions using multiple-criteria decision analysis. The case study evaluates the decisions of five hypothetical countries with differing political, social, environmental, and economic priorities, choosing among four policy alternatives: open hydraulic fracturing, limited hydraulic fracturing, completely banned hydraulic fracturing, and a cap and trade program. The result is a model that identifies the preferred policy alternative for each archetypal country and demonstrates the sensitivity the decision to particular metrics. Armed with such information, observers can predict each country's likely decisions related to natural gas exploration as more data become available or political situations change. Decision analysis provides a method to manage uncertainty and address forecasting concerns where rich and objective data may be lacking. For the case of hydraulic fracturing, the various political pressures and extreme uncertainty regarding the technology's risks and benefits serve as a prime platform to demonstrate how decision analysis can be used to predict future behaviors.

Climate change and natural disasters: integrating science and practice to protect health.

PubMed

Sauerborn, Rainer; Ebi, Kristie

2012-12-17

Hydro-meteorological disasters are the focus of this paper. The authors examine, to which extent climate change increases their frequency and intensity. Review of IPCC-projections of climate-change related extreme weather events and related literature on health effects. Projections show that climate change is likely to increase the frequency, intensity, duration, and spatial distribution of a range of extreme weather events over coming decades. There is a need for strengthened collaboration between climate scientists, the health researchers and policy-makers as well as the disaster community to jointly develop adaptation strategies to protect human.

Global Phosphorus Fertilizer Market and National Policies: A Case Study Revisiting the 2008 Price Peak

PubMed Central

Khabarov, Nikolay; Obersteiner, Michael

2017-01-01

The commodity market super-cycle and food price crisis have been associated with rampant food insecurity and the Arab spring. A multitude of factors were identified as culprits for excessive volatility on the commodity markets. However, as it regards fertilizers, a clear attribution of market drivers explaining the emergence of extreme price events is still missing. In this paper, we provide a quantitative assessment of the price spike of the global phosphorus fertilizer market in 2008 focusing on diammonium phosphate (DAP). We find that fertilizer market policies in India, the largest global importer of phosphorus fertilizers and phosphate rock, turned out to be a major contributor to the global price spike. India doubled its import of P-fertilizer in 2008 at a time when prices doubled. The analysis of a wide set of factors pertinent to the 2008 price spike in phosphorus fertilizer market leads us to the discovery of a price spike magnification and triggering mechanisms. We find that the price spike was magnified on the one hand by protective trade measures of fertilizer suppliers leading to a 19% drop in global phosphate fertilizer export. On the other hand, the Indian fertilizer subsidy scheme led to farmers not adjusting their demand for fertilizer. The triggering mechanism appeared to be the Indian production outage of P-fertilizer resulting in the additional import demand for DAP in size of about 20% of annual global supply. The main conclusion is that these three factors have jointly caused the spike, underscoring the need for ex ante improvements in fertilizer market regulation on both national and international levels. PMID:28660192

Effects of climate change on landslide hazard in Europe (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nadim, F.; Solheim, A.

2009-12-01

Landslides represent a major threat to human life, property and constructed facilities, infrastructure and natural environment in most mountainous and hilly regions of the world. As a consequence of climatic changes and potential global warming, an increase of landslide activity is expected in some parts of the world in the future. This will be due to increased extreme rainfall events, changes of hydrological cycles, meteorological events followed by sea storms causing coastal erosion and melting of snow and of frozen soils in the high mountains. During the past century, Europe experienced many fatalities and significant economic losses due to landslides. Since in many parts of Europe landslides are the most serious natural hazard, several recent European research projects are looking into the effects of climate change on the risk associated with landslides. Examples are the recently initiated SafeLand project, which looks into this problem across the continent, and GeoExtreme, which focused on Norway. The ongoing project SafeLand (www.safeland-fp7.eu) is a large, integrating project financed by the European Commission. It involves close to 30 organizations from 13 countries in Europe, and it looks into the effects of global change (mainly changes in demography and climate change) on the pattern of landslide risk in Europe. The SafeLand objectives are to (1) provide policy-makers, public administrators, researchers, scientists, educators and other stakeholders with improved harmonized framework and methodology for the assessment and quantification of landslide risk in Europe's regions; (2) evaluate the changes in risk pattern caused by climate change, human activity and policy changes; and (3) provide guidelines for choosing the most appropriate risk management strategies, including risk mitigation and prevention measures. To assess the changes in the landslide risk pattern in Norway over the next 50 years, the four-year integrated research project GeoExtreme (www.geoextreme.no) was executed. Different modules of the project established the database of landslide and avalanche events in Norway, investigated the coupling between climatic parameters and the occurrence of avalanches and landslides, developed regional, down-scaled climate scenarios for the next 50 years, and simulated a picture of possible future geohazards risk in Norway. The socioeconomic implications of geohazards in Norway, both in the past, and under the predicted future climate scenarios were also studied in the project. The latter study considered the costs related to damage by natural disasters and mitigation measures, ability to learn by experience, changes in preparedness, and impact of policy decisions. The main conclusion of the GeoExtreme project was that in a country with large climatic variation like Norway, the effects of climate change on the geohazard situation will vary significantly from location to location. Over a short time interval of 50 years, the largest increase in the direct socio-economic costs will most likely be in the transport sector. However, better adaptation to the present climate and geohazard problems would also require large investments, and this would in fact be the most important step in preparing for the expected changes during the next 50 years.

Climate strategies: thinking through Arctic examples

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bodenhorn, Barbara; Ulturgasheva, Olga

2017-05-01

Frequent and unpredictable extreme weather events in Siberia and Alaska destroy infrastructure and threaten the livelihoods of circumpolar peoples. Local responses are inventive and flexible. However, the distinct politics of post-Soviet Siberia and Alaska play a key role in the pragmatics of strategic planning. The Arctic is a planetary climate driver, but also holds the promise of massive resources in an ice-free future, producing tensions between `environmental' and `development' goals. Drawing on material from Siberia and Alaska we argue: (i) that extreme events in the Arctic are becoming normal; material demands are in a state of flux making it difficult to assess future material needs. We must consider material substitutions as much as material reduction; (ii) local-level responsive strategies should be taken into account. Core/periphery thinking tends to assume that answers come from `the centre'; this is, in our view, limited; (iii) we suggest that `flexibility' may become a core survival value that is as important for city planners and public health officials as it is for Siberian reindeer herders. In this, we see not only the simultaneous need for mitigation and adaptation policies, but also for a concerted effort in promoting such capacities in young people. This article is part of the themed issue 'Material demand reduction'.

Climate strategies: thinking through Arctic examples

PubMed Central

Ulturgasheva, Olga

2017-01-01

Frequent and unpredictable extreme weather events in Siberia and Alaska destroy infrastructure and threaten the livelihoods of circumpolar peoples. Local responses are inventive and flexible. However, the distinct politics of post-Soviet Siberia and Alaska play a key role in the pragmatics of strategic planning. The Arctic is a planetary climate driver, but also holds the promise of massive resources in an ice-free future, producing tensions between ‘environmental’ and ‘development’ goals. Drawing on material from Siberia and Alaska we argue: (i) that extreme events in the Arctic are becoming normal; material demands are in a state of flux making it difficult to assess future material needs. We must consider material substitutions as much as material reduction; (ii) local-level responsive strategies should be taken into account. Core/periphery thinking tends to assume that answers come from ‘the centre’; this is, in our view, limited; (iii) we suggest that ‘flexibility’ may become a core survival value that is as important for city planners and public health officials as it is for Siberian reindeer herders. In this, we see not only the simultaneous need for mitigation and adaptation policies, but also for a concerted effort in promoting such capacities in young people. This article is part of the themed issue ‘Material demand reduction’. PMID:28461427

Developing a global health diplomacy supply chain--a viable option for the United States to curb extremism.

PubMed

Kumar, Sameer; Honkanen, Erik J; Karl, Chad C

2009-01-01

This study examines the idea of developing a global health diplomacy supply chain as an important foreign policy approach with the aim of improving the lives of vulnerable populations and serving the best interests of the United States. The study was based on the review of academic literature, news events, and military communiques, and historical writings were studied to determine the feasibility of the idea and the extent of costs and benefits of such an endeavor. An integrated strategic business model, supported by a medical care delivery process, was developed to create a framework for a feasible global health diplomacy supply chain. The findings indicate that extremism can be contained by creating and efficiently executing an effective supply chain to get medical care units to those that need them. The limitations are the potential exit strategies required, the tactical abilities, and diplomatic techniques needed in order to create positive diplomatic change in aid distribution. Managers must consider how supply chains will affect other organizations giving aid and the potential public response. Moreover, determining the level of care necessary to achieve the greatest positive health diplomacy continues to require vigilant scrutiny over the potential cost/benefit analysis. The analysis is valuable to policymakers considering the impacts of health diplomacy by utilizing supply chain management.

Climate strategies: thinking through Arctic examples.

PubMed

Bodenhorn, Barbara; Ulturgasheva, Olga

2017-06-13

Frequent and unpredictable extreme weather events in Siberia and Alaska destroy infrastructure and threaten the livelihoods of circumpolar peoples. Local responses are inventive and flexible. However, the distinct politics of post-Soviet Siberia and Alaska play a key role in the pragmatics of strategic planning. The Arctic is a planetary climate driver, but also holds the promise of massive resources in an ice-free future, producing tensions between 'environmental' and 'development' goals. Drawing on material from Siberia and Alaska we argue: (i) that extreme events in the Arctic are becoming normal; material demands are in a state of flux making it difficult to assess future material needs. We must consider material substitutions as much as material reduction; (ii) local-level responsive strategies should be taken into account. Core/periphery thinking tends to assume that answers come from 'the centre'; this is, in our view, limited; (iii) we suggest that 'flexibility' may become a core survival value that is as important for city planners and public health officials as it is for Siberian reindeer herders. In this, we see not only the simultaneous need for mitigation and adaptation policies, but also for a concerted effort in promoting such capacities in young people.This article is part of the themed issue 'Material demand reduction'. © 2017 The Author(s).

The increasing importance of a continence nurse specialist to improve outcomes and save costs of urinary incontinence care: an analysis of future policy scenarios.

PubMed

Franken, Margreet G; Corro Ramos, Isaac; Los, Jeanine; Al, Maiwenn J

2018-02-17

In an ageing population, it is inevitable to improve the management of care for community-dwelling elderly with incontinence. A previous study showed that implementation of the Optimum Continence Service Specification (OCSS) for urinary incontinence in community-dwelling elderly with four or more chronic diseases results in a reduction of urinary incontinence, an improved quality of life, and lower healthcare and lower societal costs. The aim of this study was to explore future consequences of the OCSS strategy of various healthcare policy scenarios in an ageing population. We adapted a previously developed decision analytical model in which the OCSS new care strategy was operationalised as the appointment of a continence nurse specialist located within the general practice in The Netherlands. We used a societal perspective including healthcare costs (healthcare providers, treatment costs, insured containment products, insured home care), and societal costs (informal caregiving, containment products paid out-of-pocket, travelling expenses, home care paid out-of-pocket). All outcomes were computed over a three-year time period using two different base years (2014 and 2030). Settings for future policy scenarios were based on desk-research and expert opinion. Our results show that implementation of the OSCC new care strategy for urinary incontinence would yield large health gains in community dwelling elderly (2030: 2592-2618 QALYs gained) and large cost-savings in The Netherlands (2030: health care perspective: €32.4 Million - €72.5 Million; societal perspective: €182.0 Million - €250.6 Million). Savings can be generated in different categories which depends on healthcare policy. The uncertainty analyses and extreme case scenarios showed the robustness of the results. Implementation of the OCSS new care strategy for urinary incontinence results in an improvement in the quality of life of community-dwelling elderly, a reduction of the costs for payers and affected elderly, and a reduction in time invested by carers. Various realistic policy scenarios even forecast larger health gains and cost-savings in the future. More importantly, the longer the implementation is postponed the larger the savings foregone. The future organisation of healthcare affects the category in which the greatest savings will be generated.

Implementation of an insecticide-treated net subsidy scheme under a public-private partnership for malaria control in Tanzania--challenges in implementation.

PubMed

Njau, Ritha J A; de Savigny, Don; Gilson, Lucy; Mwageni, Eleuther; Mosha, Franklin W

2009-08-21

In the past decade there has been increasing visibility of malaria control efforts at the national and international levels. The factors that have enhanced this scenario are the availability of proven interventions such as artemisinin-based combination therapy, the wide scale use of insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) and a renewed emphasis in indoor residual house-spraying. Concurrently, there has been a window of opportunity of financial commitments from organizations such as the Global Fund for HIV/AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria (GFATM), the President's Malaria Initiative and the World Bank Booster programme. The case study uses the health policy analysis framework to analyse the implementation of a public-private partnership approach embarked upon by the government of Tanzania in malaria control - 'The Tanzania National Voucher Scheme'- and in this synthesis, emphasis is on the challenges faced by the scheme during the pre-implementation (2001 - 2004) and implementation phases (2004 - 2005). Qualitative research tools used include: document review, interview with key informants, stakeholder's analysis, force-field analysis, time line of events, policy characteristic analysis and focus group discussions. The study is also complemented by a cross-sectional survey, which was conducted at the Rufiji Health Demographic Surveillance Site, where a cohort of women of child-bearing age were followed up regarding access and use of ITNs. The major challenges observed include: the re-introduction of taxes on mosquito nets and related products, procurement and tendering procedures in the implementation of the GFATM, and organizational arrangements and free delivery of mosquito nets through a Presidential initiative. The lessons gleaned from this synthesis include: (a) the consistency of the stakeholders with a common vision, was an important strength in overcoming obstacles, (b) senior politicians often steered the policy agenda when the policy in question was a 'crisis event', the stakes and the visibility were high, (c) national stakeholders in policy making have an advantage in strengthening alliances with international organizations, where the latter can become extremely influential in solving bottlenecks as the need arises, and (d) conflict can be turned into an opportunity, for example the Presidential initiative has inadvertently provided Tanzania with important lessons in the organization of 'catch-up' campaigns.

Implementation of an insecticide-treated net subsidy scheme under a public-private partnership for malaria control in Tanzania – challenges in implementation

PubMed Central

2009-01-01

Background In the past decade there has been increasing visibility of malaria control efforts at the national and international levels. The factors that have enhanced this scenario are the availability of proven interventions such as artemisinin-based combination therapy, the wide scale use of insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) and a renewed emphasis in indoor residual house-spraying. Concurrently, there has been a window of opportunity of financial commitments from organizations such as the Global Fund for HIV/AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria (GFATM), the President's Malaria Initiative and the World Bank Booster programme. Methods The case study uses the health policy analysis framework to analyse the implementation of a public-private partnership approach embarked upon by the government of Tanzania in malaria control – 'The Tanzania National Voucher Scheme'- and in this synthesis, emphasis is on the challenges faced by the scheme during the pre-implementation (2001 – 2004) and implementation phases (2004 – 2005). Qualitative research tools used include: document review, interview with key informants, stakeholder's analysis, force-field analysis, time line of events, policy characteristic analysis and focus group discussions. The study is also complemented by a cross-sectional survey, which was conducted at the Rufiji Health Demographic Surveillance Site, where a cohort of women of child-bearing age were followed up regarding access and use of ITNs. Results The major challenges observed include: the re-introduction of taxes on mosquito nets and related products, procurement and tendering procedures in the implementation of the GFATM, and organizational arrangements and free delivery of mosquito nets through a Presidential initiative. Conclusion The lessons gleaned from this synthesis include: (a) the consistency of the stakeholders with a common vision, was an important strength in overcoming obstacles, (b) senior politicians often steered the policy agenda when the policy in question was a 'crisis event', the stakes and the visibility were high, (c) national stakeholders in policy making have an advantage in strengthening alliances with international organizations, where the latter can become extremely influential in solving bottlenecks as the need arises, and (d) conflict can be turned into an opportunity, for example the Presidential initiative has inadvertently provided Tanzania with important lessons in the organization of 'catch-up' campaigns. PMID:19698109

The importance of range edges for an irruptive species during extreme weather events

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bateman, Brooke L.; Pidgeon, Anna M.; Radeloff, Volker C.; Allstadt, Andrew J.; Akçakaya, H. Resit; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Vavrus, Stephen J.; Heglund, Patricia J.

2015-01-01

In a changing climate where more frequent extreme weather may be more common, conservation strategies for weather-sensitive species may require consideration of habitat in the edges of species’ ranges, even though non-core areas may be unoccupied in ‘normal’ years. Our results highlight the conservation importance of range edges in providing refuge from extreme events, such as drought, and climate change.

xSDK Foundations: Toward an Extreme-scale Scientific Software Development Kit

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Heroux, Michael A.; Bartlett, Roscoe; Demeshko, Irina

Here, extreme-scale computational science increasingly demands multiscale and multiphysics formulations. Combining software developed by independent groups is imperative: no single team has resources for all predictive science and decision support capabilities. Scientific libraries provide high-quality, reusable software components for constructing applications with improved robustness and portability. However, without coordination, many libraries cannot be easily composed. Namespace collisions, inconsistent arguments, lack of third-party software versioning, and additional difficulties make composition costly. The Extreme-scale Scientific Software Development Kit (xSDK) defines community policies to improve code quality and compatibility across independently developed packages (hypre, PETSc, SuperLU, Trilinos, and Alquimia) and provides a foundationmore » for addressing broader issues in software interoperability, performance portability, and sustainability. The xSDK provides turnkey installation of member software and seamless combination of aggregate capabilities, and it marks first steps toward extreme-scale scientific software ecosystems from which future applications can be composed rapidly with assured quality and scalability.« less

xSDK Foundations: Toward an Extreme-scale Scientific Software Development Kit

DOE PAGES

Heroux, Michael A.; Bartlett, Roscoe; Demeshko, Irina; ...

2017-03-01

Here, extreme-scale computational science increasingly demands multiscale and multiphysics formulations. Combining software developed by independent groups is imperative: no single team has resources for all predictive science and decision support capabilities. Scientific libraries provide high-quality, reusable software components for constructing applications with improved robustness and portability. However, without coordination, many libraries cannot be easily composed. Namespace collisions, inconsistent arguments, lack of third-party software versioning, and additional difficulties make composition costly. The Extreme-scale Scientific Software Development Kit (xSDK) defines community policies to improve code quality and compatibility across independently developed packages (hypre, PETSc, SuperLU, Trilinos, and Alquimia) and provides a foundationmore » for addressing broader issues in software interoperability, performance portability, and sustainability. The xSDK provides turnkey installation of member software and seamless combination of aggregate capabilities, and it marks first steps toward extreme-scale scientific software ecosystems from which future applications can be composed rapidly with assured quality and scalability.« less

Evidence on public policy: methodological issues, political issues and examples.

PubMed

Attanasio, Orazio P

2014-03-01

In this paper I discuss how evidence on public policy is generated and in particular the issue of evaluation of public policies. In economics, the issue of attribution and the identification of causal links has recently received considerable attention. Important methodological issues have been tackled and new techniques have been proposed and used. Randomized Control Trials have become some sort of gold standard. However, they are not exempt from problems and have important limitations: in some case they cannot be constructed and, more generally, problems of external validity and transferability of results can be important. The paper then moves on to discuss the political economy of policy evaluations for policy evaluations to have an impact for the conduct of actual policy, it is important that the demand for evaluation comes directly from the policy making process and is generated endogenously within it. In this sense it is important that the institutional design of policy making is such that policy making institutions are incentivized to use rigorous evaluation in the process of designing policies and allocating resources to alternative options. Economists are currently involved in the design and evaluation of many policies, including policies about health, nutrition and education. The role they can play in these fields is not completely obvious. The paper argues that their main contribution is in the modelling of how individual reacts to incentives (including those provided by public policies).

[Important issues of biological safety].

PubMed

Onishchenko, G G

2007-01-01

The problem of biological security raises alarm due to the real growth of biological threats. Biological security includes a wide scope of problems, the solution of which becomes a part of national security as a necessary condition for the constant development of the country. A number of pathogens, such as human immunodeficiency virus, exotic Ebola and Lassa viruses causing hemorrhagic fever,rotaviruses causing acute intestinal diseases, etc. were first discovered in the last century. Terrorist actions committed in the USA in 2001 using the anthrax pathogen made the problem of biological danger even more important. In Russian Federation, biological threats are counteracted through the united state policy being a part of general state security policy. The biological Security legislation of Russian Federation is chiefly based on the 1992 Federal Law on Security. On the basis of cumulated experience, the President of Russia ratified Basics of Russian Federation's State Policy for Chemical and Biological Security for the Period through 2010 and Beyond on 4 December, 2003. The document determines the main directions and stages of the state development in the area of chemical and biological security. The Federal target program Russian Federation's National Program for Chemical and Biological Security is being developed, and its development is to be completed soon in order to perfect the national system for biological security and fulfill Basics of Russian Federation's State Policy for Chemical and Biological Security for the Period through 2010 and Beyond, ratified by the President. The new global strategy for control over infectious diseases, presented in the materials of Saint Petersburg summit of the Group of Eight, as well as the substantive part of its elements in Sanitary International Standards, are to a large degree an acknowledgement of the Russian Federation's experience and the algorithm for fighting extremely dangerous infections. This Russia's experience has resulted in the following global achievements: smallpox elimination in the USSR (1936); the USSR's suggestions on the program of smallpox elimination in the world and 2 billion doses of the vaccine transferred to the possession of the WHO (since 1958); the global elimination of the disease (1980); effective control over avian influenza at the epizootic stage, recognized internationally at Beijing International Congress, 17-18 January, 2006.

Identifying geoscience knowledge likely to affect foreign policy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kelmelis, J. A.

2006-12-01

The earth sciences play an important role in foreign policy and have done so throughout history. Whether it is access to resources, knowledge of weather or other earth system conditions, planning for or responding to disasters, protecting the environment, facilitating transportation and communication, or any of a number of other important topics, the geosciences continue to inform our decision making. The importance of science, technology, and health (STH) is being increasingly recognized in the foreign policy community. The National Research Council (NRC) recommended that the Department of State (State) expand its scientific base to address the importance of STH issues. In part, this consists of increasing the number of scientists within State. Another important aspect is not only identifying the STH issues that are of current concern, but also the issues that will be of importance in the future. A number of studies funded by the U.S. Government have identified some important STH areas of concern at a high level. These provide a basis for more in-depth investigations. However, there are additional phenomena, beyond those identified in the studies, which have foreign policy implications. The scientific findings may be well known to scientists but their foreign policy importance is not always obvious. The scientific and foreign policy communities could improve their dialog to better develop strategies for foreign policy and future scientific research. One way to help facilitate that is to ease identification of scientific issues with potential significance to foreign policy and to clarify uncertainties around those issues. A qualitative method relating the likelihood that the scientific finding has foreign policy importance to the potential level of foreign policy importance has been used to clarify the significance of a variety of scientific findings including Arctic warming, methane hydrates, atmospheric dust, disease, and natural hazards. From a foreign policy perspective, the significance of some scientific findings can cascade through emerging international issues and manifest themselves in ways that have both strategic and tactical concern.

The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly of Evidence-Based Practice

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bouffard, Marcel; Reid, Greg

2012-01-01

The evidence-based practice (EBP) movement has been extremely influential over the last 20 years. Fields like medicine, physiotherapy, occupational therapy, nursing, psychology, and education have adopted the idea that policy makers and practitioners should use interventions that have demonstrated efficiency and effectiveness. This apparently…

Wrongful Adoption: Law, Policy and Practice.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Freundlich, Madelyn; Peterson, Lisa

The past decade has seen an increase in cases where adoptive parents fail to receive accurate or complete information about a child's physical, emotional, or developmental problems or about the child's birth family and history. In these cases adoptive parents are confronted with extremely expensive medical care or mental health care. This…

Improving Professional Judgments of Risk and Amenability in Juvenile Justice

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mulvey, Edward P.; Iselin, Anne-Marie R.

2008-01-01

The dual requirement to ensure community safety and promote a youthful offender's positive development permeates policy and frames daily practice in juvenile justice. Balancing those two demands, explain Edward Mulvey and Anne-Marie Iselin, requires justice system professionals at all levels to make extremely difficult decisions about the likely…

New Strategies for Improving Rural Family Life.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Coombs, Philip H.

Presented in capsule form for the convenience of busy policy makers, planners, and program managers, this booklet summarizes major findings of a three-year study on practical aspects of rural development, with particular emphasis on ways of alleviating extreme poverty among disadvantaged rural families. Using case studies from Bangladesh, India,…

On Regional Modeling to Support Air Quality Policies (book chapter)

EPA Science Inventory

We examine the use of the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model in simulating the changes in the extreme values of air quality that are of interest to the regulatory agencies. Year-to-year changes in ozone air quality are attributable to variations in the prevailing meteo...

Multi-index evaluation of future drought and climate extreme occurrence in Goodwater Creek Experimental Watershed

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Understanding the frequency and occurrence of drought events in historic and projected future climate is essential for managing natural resources and setting policy. This study aims to identify future patterns of meteorological, hydrological and agricultural droughts based on projection from 12 GCM ...

MINOR FLUX ADJUSTMENT NEAR MIXING RATIO EXTREMES FOR SIMPLIFIED YET HIGHLY ACCURATE MONOTONIC CALCULATION OF TRACER ADVECTION. (R827929)

EPA Science Inventory

The perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Concl...

Rural Education in Bangladesh - Problems and Prospects. IIEP Seminar Paper: 23.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Haque, M.

As a land of extreme rural poverty and illiteracy, Bangladesh needs to consciously promote, develop, and support local institutions and participatory leadership, involving local people in the planning, development, and implementation of developmental policies. Begun in 1959, the Comilla experiment constitutes the rationale for institutional…

Online media coverage of air pollution risks and current policies in India: A content analysis.

PubMed

Murukutla, Nandita; Negi, Nalin S; Puri, Pallavi; Mullin, Sandra; Onyon, Lesley

2017-09-01

Background Air pollution is of particular concern in India, which contains 11 of the 20 most polluted cities in the world. Media coverage of air pollution issues plays an important role in influencing public opinion and increasing citizen demand for action on clean air policy. Hence, this study was designed to assess news coverage of air pollution in India and its implications for policy advancement. Methods Articles published online between 1 January 2014 and 31 October 2015 that discussed air pollution in India were systematically content analysed. From 6435 articles in the national media and 271 articles in the international media, a random selection of 500 articles (400 from national and 100 from international media) were analysed and coded by two independent coders, after high inter-rater reliability (kappa statistic above 0.8) was established. Results There was an increase in the number of news stories on air pollution in India in the national media over the study period; 317 (63%) stories described the risk to health from air pollution as moderately to extremely severe, and 393 (79%) stories described the situation as needing urgent action. Limited information was provided on the kinds of illnesses that can result from exposure. Less than 30% of stories in either media specifically mentioned the common illnesses resulting from air pollution. Very few articles in either media mentioned the population groups most at risk from air pollution, such as children or older people. Vehicles were presented most often as the cause of air pollution in India (in over 50% of articles in both national and international media). Some of the most important sources of air pollution were mentioned less often: 6% of national and 18% of international media articles mentioned unclean sources of household energy; 3% of national and 9% of international media articles mentioned agricultural field burning. Finally, the majority of articles (405; 81%) did not mention any specific institution or organization - such as the government or industry groups - as the primary responsible stakeholder, thus leaving ambiguous the organizations whose leadership was necessary to mitigate air pollution. Conclusion Gaps exist in the current media discourse on air pollution, suggesting the need for strengthening engagement with the media as a means of creating citizen engagement and enabling policy action. Through greater elaboration of the health burdens and evidence-based policy actions, the media can play a critical role in galvanizing India's action on air quality. These data may suggest opportunities for media advocacy and greater public and policy engagement to address issues around air quality in India.

Petro-state constraints on health policy: guidelines for workable reform in Venezuela.

PubMed

Trujillo, Antonio J

2004-01-01

This article reviews the performance of the Venezuelan health care sector and suggests guidelines for workable health policy under difficult conditions. Two special circumstances constrain policy options. First, Venezuelans share a traditional value, solidarity, which includes a strong desire for equity. Reforms must comply with this norm to succeed. Second, foreign sales of state-controlled oil constitute the bulk of the government budget and the gross domestic product (GDP). Petroleum market fluctuations expose the country to extreme economic cycles. In response, policy making and stakeholders adopt a rentier attitude, focusing on preserving or enlarging entitlements to government oil monies. The side effects of this largesse include poor productivity, a weak private sector, a widespread sense of entitlement without accountability, and a crippled state which controls most of the available resources yet is unable to effectively tax, regulate, steer the economy, or pursue long-term policies. The health care sector shares these problems. As a result, Venezuela's health systems are fragmented, poorly coordinated, excessively centralized, inequitable, and ineffective. Policies to improve public health and public and private medical care must take into account these constraints.

The potential impacts of climate variability and change on health impacts of extreme weather events in the United States.

PubMed

Greenough, G; McGeehin, M; Bernard, S M; Trtanj, J; Riad, J; Engelberg, D

2001-05-01

Extreme weather events such as precipitation extremes and severe storms cause hundreds of deaths and injuries annually in the United States. Climate change may alter the frequency, timing, intensity, and duration of these events. Increases in heavy precipitation have occurred over the past century. Future climate scenarios show likely increases in the frequency of extreme precipitation events, including precipitation during hurricanes, raising the risk of floods. Frequencies of tornadoes and hurricanes cannot reliably be projected. Injury and death are the direct health impacts most often associated with natural disasters. Secondary effects, mediated by changes in ecologic systems and public health infrastructure, also occur. The health impacts of extreme weather events hinge on the vulnerabilities and recovery capacities of the natural environment and the local population. Relevant variables include building codes, warning systems, disaster policies, evacuation plans, and relief efforts. There are many federal, state, and local government agencies and nongovernmental organizations involved in planning for and responding to natural disasters in the United States. Future research on health impacts of extreme weather events should focus on improving climate models to project any trends in regional extreme events and as a result improve public health preparedness and mitigation. Epidemiologic studies of health effects beyond the direct impacts of disaster will provide a more accurate measure of the full health impacts and will assist in planning and resource allocation.

Global Warming Denial: The Human Brain on Extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marrouch, N.; Johnson, B. T.; Slawinska, J. M.

2016-12-01

Future assessments of climate change rely on multi-model intercomparisons, and projections of the extreme events frequency are of particular interest as associated with significant economic costs and social threats. Notably, systematically simulated increases in the number of extreme weather events agree well with observational data over the last decade. At the same time, as the climate grows more volatile, widespread denial of climate change and its anthropocentric causes continues to proliferate (based on nationally representative U.S. polls). Simultaneous increases in both high-impact exposure and its denial is in stark contrast with our knowledge of socio-natural dynamics and its models. Disentangling this paradox requires an understanding of the origins of global warming denial at an individual level, and how subsequently it propagates across social networks of many scales, shaping global policies. However, as the real world and its dynamical models are complex (high-dimensional and coupled), separating the particular feedback of interest remains a challenge. Here, we demonstrate this feedback in a controlled experiment, where increasing unpredictability using helplessness-training paradigms induces changes in global warming denial, and the endorsement of conservative ideology. We explain these results in the context of evolutionary theory framing self-deception and denial as remnants of evolutionary processes that shaped and facilitated the survival of the human species. Further we link these findings to changes in neural and higher-level cognitive processes in response to unpredictable stimuli. We argue that climate change denial is an example of an extreme belief system that carries the potential to threaten the wellbeing of both humans and other species alike. It is therefore crucial to better quantify climate denial using social informatics tools that provide the means to improve its representations in coupled socio-geophysical models to mitigate its effects on global and local policies.

Estimating the Effect of Climate Change on Crop Yields and Farmland Values: The Importance of Extreme Temperatures

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This is a presentation titled Estimating the Effect of Climate Change on Crop Yields and Farmland Values: The Importance of Extreme Temperatures that was given for the National Center for Environmental Economics

The feasibility of age-specific travel restrictions during influenza pandemics

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Epidemiological studies have shown that imposing travel restrictions to prevent or delay an influenza pandemic may not be feasible. To delay an epidemic substantially, an extremely high proportion of trips (~99%) would have to be restricted in a homogeneously mixing population. Influenza is, however, strongly influenced by age-dependent transmission dynamics, and the effectiveness of age-specific travel restrictions, such as the selective restriction of travel by children, has yet to be examined. Methods A simple stochastic model was developed to describe the importation of infectious cases into a population and to model local chains of transmission seeded by imported cases. The probability of a local epidemic, and the time period until a major epidemic takes off, were used as outcome measures, and travel restriction policies in which children or adults were preferentially restricted were compared to age-blind restriction policies using an age-dependent next generation matrix parameterized for influenza H1N1-2009. Results Restricting children from travelling would yield greater reductions to the short-term risk of the epidemic being established locally than other policy options considered, and potentially could delay an epidemic for a few weeks. However, given a scenario with a total of 500 imported cases over a period of a few months, a substantial reduction in the probability of an epidemic in this time period is possible only if the transmission potential were low and assortativity (i.e. the proportion of contacts within-group) were unrealistically high. In all other scenarios considered, age-structured travel restrictions would not prevent an epidemic and would not delay the epidemic for longer than a few weeks. Conclusions Selectively restricting children from traveling overseas during a pandemic may potentially delay its arrival for a few weeks, depending on the characteristics of the pandemic strain, but could have less of an impact on the economy compared to restricting adult travelers. However, as long as adults have at least a moderate potential to trigger an epidemic, selectively restricting the higher risk group (children) may not be a practical option to delay the arrival of an epidemic substantially. PMID:22078655

The feasibility of age-specific travel restrictions during influenza pandemics.

PubMed

Lam, Elson H Y; Cowling, Benjamin J; Cook, Alex R; Wong, Jessica Y T; Lau, Max S Y; Nishiura, Hiroshi

2011-11-11

Epidemiological studies have shown that imposing travel restrictions to prevent or delay an influenza pandemic may not be feasible. To delay an epidemic substantially, an extremely high proportion of trips (~99%) would have to be restricted in a homogeneously mixing population. Influenza is, however, strongly influenced by age-dependent transmission dynamics, and the effectiveness of age-specific travel restrictions, such as the selective restriction of travel by children, has yet to be examined. A simple stochastic model was developed to describe the importation of infectious cases into a population and to model local chains of transmission seeded by imported cases. The probability of a local epidemic, and the time period until a major epidemic takes off, were used as outcome measures, and travel restriction policies in which children or adults were preferentially restricted were compared to age-blind restriction policies using an age-dependent next generation matrix parameterized for influenza H1N1-2009. Restricting children from travelling would yield greater reductions to the short-term risk of the epidemic being established locally than other policy options considered, and potentially could delay an epidemic for a few weeks. However, given a scenario with a total of 500 imported cases over a period of a few months, a substantial reduction in the probability of an epidemic in this time period is possible only if the transmission potential were low and assortativity (i.e. the proportion of contacts within-group) were unrealistically high. In all other scenarios considered, age-structured travel restrictions would not prevent an epidemic and would not delay the epidemic for longer than a few weeks. Selectively restricting children from traveling overseas during a pandemic may potentially delay its arrival for a few weeks, depending on the characteristics of the pandemic strain, but could have less of an impact on the economy compared to restricting adult travelers. However, as long as adults have at least a moderate potential to trigger an epidemic, selectively restricting the higher risk group (children) may not be a practical option to delay the arrival of an epidemic substantially.

Adaptive Governance, Uncertainty, and Risk: Policy Framing and Responses to Climate Change, Drought, and Flood.

PubMed

Hurlbert, Margot; Gupta, Joyeeta

2016-02-01

As climate change impacts result in more extreme events (such as droughts and floods), the need to understand which policies facilitate effective climate change adaptation becomes crucial. Hence, this article answers the question: How do governments and policymakers frame policy in relation to climate change, droughts, and floods and what governance structures facilitate adaptation? This research interrogates and analyzes through content analysis, supplemented by semi-structured qualitative interviews, the policy response to climate change, drought, and flood in relation to agricultural producers in four case studies in river basins in Chile, Argentina, and Canada. First, an epistemological explanation of risk and uncertainty underscores a brief literature review of adaptive governance, followed by policy framing in relation to risk and uncertainty, and an analytical model is developed. Pertinent findings of the four cases are recounted, followed by a comparative analysis. In conclusion, recommendations are made to improve policies and expand adaptive governance to better account for uncertainty and risk. This article is innovative in that it proposes an expanded model of adaptive governance in relation to "risk" that can help bridge the barrier of uncertainty in science and policy. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

Ethnobotanical knowledge in rural communities of Cordoba (Argentina): the importance of cultural and biogeographical factors

PubMed Central

2009-01-01

Background The possibility to better understand the relationships within the men, the nature and their culture has extreme importance because allows the characterisation of social systems through their particular environmental perception, and provides useful tools for the development of conservation policies. Methods The present study was planned to disentangle environmental and cultural factors that are influencing the perception, knowledge and uses of edible and medicinal plants in rural communities of Cordoba (Argentina). Interviews an participant observation were conducted in nine rural communities located in three different biogeographical areas. Data about knowledge of medicinal and edible plants and sociocultural variables were obtained. Data were analysed by Principal Components Analysis (PCA). Results The analysis of data confirmed that medicinal species are widely used whereas the knowledge on edible plants is eroding. The PCA showed four groups of communities, defined by several particular combinations of sociocultural and/or natural variables. Conclusion This comprehensive approach suggests that in general terms the cultural environment has a stronger influence than the natural environment on the use of medicinal and edible plants in rural communities of Cordoba (Argentina). PMID:20003502

Gene therapy for spinomuscular atrophy: a biomedical advance, a missed opportunity for more equitable drug pricing.

PubMed

Friedmann, T

2017-09-01

An experimental approach for gene therapy of spinomuscular atrophy has been reported to prevent development of the neuromuscular features of this lethal and previously untreatable disorder. The approach involves treatment of patients suffering from SMN1-associated infantile form of the disease with a splice-switching antisense oligonucleotide (ASO) that corrects aberrant splicing of the nearly identical SMN2 gene to allow the generation of functional SMN protein, thereby mitigating the development of the disease. This technique represents the first apparently effective therapy for spinal muscular atrophy (SMA) and an important documentation for ASO technology for therapy of neurodegenerative disease. These results with one form of SMA are likely to be relevant for similar applications to other SMA types and are likely to inspire application to a number of other intractable neurodegenerative diseases such as Huntington's disease, amyotrophic lateral sclerosis and possibly even the extremely common Parkinson's and Alzheimer's diseases and others. Nevertheless, the scientific and medical importance of this advance is marred by a pricing policy by the corporate sponsors that may complicate accessibility of the drug for some desperate patients.

Emerging and re-emerging infections.

PubMed

Lim, V K

1999-06-01

An emerging infection is defined as an infection which has newly appeared in a population while a re-emerging infection is one which has existed in the past but its incidence is rapidly increasing. The reasons for the emergence and re-emergence of infections are not well understood but appear to be associated with factors that involve the pathogen, the host and the environment. These factors are often inter-related and act together in a complex manner to bring about changes in patterns of infection. Pathogens are extremely resourceful and possess mechanisms to adapt to new hosts and environments as well as to acquire new virulence traits. Host factors include herd immunity, social behaviour and demographics. Environmental factors like the climate, deforestation and new technologies have an impact on the emergence of infections. The challenge is to contain an infection when it emerges but more importantly to prevent its emergence in the first place. As the emergence of an infection is complex and multifactorial, a multidisciplinary approach is required. Health based strategies alone are insufficient. Social, economic and environmental measures and the political will to implement appropriate policies are equally important.

SETI and the media: Views from inside and out

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tarter, Donald E.

Results are presented from a detailed questionnaire sent to members of the international SETI (Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence) community and the international science media. Both groups are compared on the following dimensions: perceived importance of SETI, perceived level of information about SETI available to the media and public, perceived credibility of SETI, and attitudes toward information policy options to govern an announcement of a SETI discovery. The results indicate that SETI is perceived to be an extremely important endeavor, but it enjoys only marginal credibility among the public and the SETI community's professional constituencies. Both the SETI community and the media agree that an erroneous announcement of a discovery of extraterrestrial intelligence could be very damaging. In order to minimize the dangers of false announcement and to bring a degree of order to SETI, a scientific protocol agreement and the establishment of a contact verification committee have been recommended. Both received endorsement from the SETI community and the international science media. The science media feels that from its viewpoint, a contact verification committee would be a more effective way of assuring accurate information about SETI programs and discoveries.

Adaptation to Climatic Hazards in the Savannah Ecosystem: Improving Adaptation Policy and Action

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yiran, Gerald A. B.; Stringer, Lindsay C.

2017-10-01

People in Ghana's savannah ecosystem have historically experienced a range of climatic hazards that have affected their livelihoods. In view of current climate variability and change, and projected increases in extreme events, adaptation to climate risks is vital. Policies have been put in place to enhance adaptation across sub-Saharan Africa in accordance with international agreements. At the same time, local people, through experience, have learned to adapt. This paper examines current policy actions and their implementation alongside an assessment of barriers to local adaptation. In doing so it links adaptation policy and practice. Policy documents were analysed that covered key livelihood sectors, which were identified as climate sensitive. These included agriculture, water, housing and health policies, as well as the National Climate Change Policy. In-depth interviews and focus group discussions were also held with key stakeholders in the Upper East Region of Ghana. Analyses were carried using thematic content analysis. Although policies and actions complement each other, their integration is weak. Financial, institutional, social, and technological barriers hinder successful local implementation of some policy actions, while lack of local involvement in policy formulation also hinders adaptation practice. Integration of local perspectives into policy needs to be strengthened in order to enhance adaptation. Coupled with this is a need to consider adaptation to climate change in development policies and to pursue efforts to reduce or remove the key barriers to implementation at the local level.

Extreme Geohazards: Reducing Disaster Risk and Increasing Resilience

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Plag, Hans-Peter; Stein, Seth; Brocklebank, Sean; Jules-Plag, Shelley; Campus, Paola

2014-05-01

Extreme natural hazards have the potential to cause global disasters and to lead to an escalation of the global sustainability crisis. Floods and droughts pose threats that could reach planetary extent, particularly through secondary economic and social impacts. Earthquakes and tsunamis cause disasters that could exceed the immediate coping capacity of the global economy, particularly in hazardous areas containing megacities, that can be particularly vulnerable to natural hazards if proper emergency protocols and infrastructures are not set in place. Recent events illustrate the destruction extreme hazards can inflict, both directly and indirectly, through domino effects resulting from the interaction with the built environment. Unfortunately, the more humanity learns to cope with relatively frequent (50 to 100 years) natural hazard events, the less concerns remain about the low-probability (one in a few hundred or more years) high-impact events. As a consequence, threats from low-probability extreme floods, droughts, and volcanic eruptions are not appropriately accounted for in Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) discussions. With the support of the European Science Foundation (ESF), the Geohazards Community of Practice (GHCP) of the Group on Earth Observations (GEO) has developed a White Paper (WP) on the risk associated with low-probability, high-impact geohazards. These events are insufficiently addressed in risk management, although their potential impacts are comparable to those of a large asteroid impact, a global pandemic, or an extreme drought. The WP aims to increase awareness of the risk associated with these events as a basis for a comprehensive risk management. Extreme geohazards have occurred regularly throughout the past, but mostly did not cause major disasters because the exposure of human assets to such hazards and the global population density were much lower than today. The most extreme events during the last 2,000 years would cause today unparalleled damage on a global scale for a globally connected and stressed society. In particular, large volcanic eruptions could impact climate, damage anthropogenic infrastructure and interrupt resource supplies on a global scale. The occurrence of one or more of the largest volcanic eruptions that took place during the last 2,000 years under today's conditions would likely cause global disasters or catastrophes challenging civilization. Integration of these low-probability, high-impact events in DRR requires an approach focused on resilience and antifragility, as well as the ability to cope with, and recover from failure of infrastructures and social systems. Resilience results from social capital even more than from the robustness of infrastructure. While it is important to understand the hazards through the contribution of geosciences, it is equally important to understand through the contribution of social sciences and engineering the societal processes involved with coping with hazards or leading to failure. For comprehensive development of resilience to natural hazards and, in particular, extreme geohazards, synergy between geosciences, engineering and social sciences, jointed to an improved science-policy relationship is key to success. For example, a simple cost-benefit analysis shows that a comprehensive monitoring system that could identify the onset of an extreme volcanic eruption with sufficient lead time to allow for a globally coordinated preparation makes economic sense. The WP recommends implementation of such a monitoring system with global coverage, assesses the existing assets in current monitoring systems, and illustrates many benefits, besides providing early warning for extreme volcanic eruptions. However, such a monitoring system can provide resilience only via the capability of the global community to react to early warnings. The WP recommends achieving this through the establishment of a global coordination platform comparable to IPCC's role in addressing climate-change related issues to assess knowledge and related adaptive capabilities for disasters due to extreme geohazards.

Nonprofit conversion: theory, evidence, and state policy options.

PubMed Central

Marsteller, J A; Bovbjerg, R R; Nichols, L M

1998-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To describe the contributions of nonprofit hospitals and health plans to healthcare markets and to analyze state policy options with regard to the conversion of nonprofits to for-profit status. DATA SOURCES/STUDY SETTING: Secondary national and state data from a variety of sources, 1980-present. STUDY DESIGN: Policy analysis. DATA COLLECTION/EXTRACTION METHODS: Development of a conceptual economic framework; analysis of empirical, legal, and theoretical literature; and review of statutes, rules, and court decisions. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Three main rationales support special status for nonprofits, especially hospitals: charity care, other community benefits, and consumer protection. The main social rationale for for-profits is their incentives for better efficiency. There are reasons to expect that nonprofit and for-profit goals differ; however, measured differences in community hospital cost, prices, and quality between nonprofit and for-profit hospitals are undetectable or inconclusive. Nonprofit hospitals do provide more uncompensated care than for-profit hospitals. Similarities between nonprofit and for-profit hospitals may exist because nonprofits may set norms that for-profits follow to some degree. States have substantial power and discretion in overseeing nonprofit conversions. Some have regularized oversight through new legislation that constrains, but does not eliminate, state officials' discretion. These statutes may be deferential to converting entities and their buyers or may be very restrictive of them. CONCLUSIONS: Overseeing the appropriate disposition of nonprofit assets in individual conversions is extremely important. States should also monitor local market conditions through community benefits assessments and other data collection, however, to accurately assess (and possibly redress) what is lost or gained from conversion. Local market conditions are likely more important in determining hospital behavior than ownership form. Potentially, a mix of for-profit and nonprofit hospitals in a given market may improve market performance due to constraints the two ownership types may exercise over one another. If nonprofits disappear, the states may need to maintain quality and access norms through regulation. Images Figure 1 PMID:9865231

Missing marine protected area (MPA) targets: How the push for quantity over quality undermines sustainability and social justice.

PubMed

De Santo, Elizabeth M

2013-07-30

International targets for marine protected areas (MPAs) and networks of MPAs set by the World Summit on Sustainable Development and United Nations Convention on Biological Diversity failed to meet their 2012 deadline and have been extended to 2020. Whilst targets play an important role in building momentum for conservation, they are also responsible for the recent designation of several extremely large no-take MPAs, which pose significant long-term monitoring and enforcement challenges. This paper critically examines the effectiveness of MPA targets, focusing on the underlying risks to achieving Millennium Development Goals posed by the global push for quantity versus quality of MPAs. The observations outlined in this paper have repercussions for international protected area politics with respect to (1) the science-policy interface in environmental decision-making, and (2) social justice concerns in global biodiversity conservation. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The rise of global warming skepticism: exploring affective image associations in the United States over time.

PubMed

Smith, Nicholas; Leiserowitz, Anthony

2012-06-01

This article explores how affective image associations to global warming have changed over time. Four nationally representative surveys of the American public were conducted between 2002 and 2010 to assess public global warming risk perceptions, policy preferences, and behavior. Affective images (positive or negative feelings and cognitive representations) were collected and content analyzed. The results demonstrate a large increase in "naysayer" associations, indicating extreme skepticism about the issue of climate change. Multiple regression analyses found that holistic affect and "naysayer" associations were more significant predictors of global warming risk perceptions than cultural worldviews or sociodemographic variables, including political party and ideology. The results demonstrate the important role affective imagery plays in judgment and decision-making processes, how these variables change over time, and how global warming is currently perceived by the American public. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

The transmission of fluctuation among price indices based on Granger causality network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Qingru; Gao, Xiangyun; Wen, Shaobo; Chen, Zhihua; Hao, Xiaoqing

2018-09-01

In this paper, we provide a method of statistical physics to analyze the fluctuation of transmission by constructing Granger causality network among price indices (PIGCN) from a systematical perspective, using complex network theory combined with Granger causality method. In economic system, there are numerous price indices, of which the relationships are extreme complicated. Thus, time series data of 6 types of price indices of China, including 113 kinds of sub price indices, are selected as example of empirical study. Through the analysis of the structure of PIGCN, we identify important price indices with high transmission range, high intermediation capacity, high cohesion and the fluctuation transmission path of price indices, respectively. Furthermore, dynamic relationships among price indices are revealed. Based on these results, we provide several policy implications for monitoring the diffusion of risk of price fluctuation. Our method can also be used to study the price indices of other countries, which is generally applicable.

Management of carbon across sectors and scales: Insights from land use decision making

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dilling, L.; Failey, E. L.

2008-12-01

Carbon management is increasingly becoming a topic of interest among policy circles and business entrepreneurs alike. In the United States, while no binding regulatory framework exists, carbon management is nonetheless being pursued both by voluntary actions at a variety of levels, from the individual to the national level, and through mandatory policies at state and local levels. Controlling the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere for climate purposes will ultimately require a form of governance that will ensure that the actions taken and being rewarded financially are indeed effective with respect to the global atmosphere on long time scales. Moreover, this new system of governance will need to interface with existing governance structures and decision criteria that have been established to arbitrate among various societal values and priorities. These existing institutions and expressed values will need to be examined against those proposed for effective carbon governance, such as the permanence of carbon storage, the additionality of credited activities, and the prevention of leakage, or displacement of prohibited activities to another region outside the governance boundary. The latter issue suggests that interactions among scales of decision making and governance will be extremely important in determining the ultimate success of any future system of carbon governance. The goal of our study is to understand the current context of land use decision making in different sectors and examine the potential for future carbon policy to be effective given this context. This study examined land use decision making in the U.S. state of Colorado from a variety of ownership perspectives, including US Federal land managers, individual private owners, and policy makers involved in land use at a number of different scales. This paper will report on the results of interviews with land managers and provide insight into the policy context for carbon management through land use. The study also examined the role of information in making decisions, and we will report some interesting contrasts between Federal and private land owner practices. Implications for science policy and the provision of useful information for decision making will be discussed.

The impact of global health initiatives on trust in health care provision under extreme resource scarcity: presenting an agenda for debate from a case study of emergency obstetric care in Northern Tanzania

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background Through the nearly three decades that have passed since the Alma Ata conference on Primary Health Care, a wide range of global health initiatives and ideas have been advocated to improve the health of people living in developing countries. The issues raised in the Primary Health Care concept, the Structural Adjustment Programmes and the Health Sector Reforms have all influenced health service delivery. Increasingly however, health systems in developing countries are being described as having collapsed Do the advocated frameworks contribute to this collapse through not adequately including population trust as a determinant of the revival of health services, or are they primarily designed to satisfy the values of other actors within the health care system? This article argues there is an urgent need to challenge common thinking on health care provision under extreme resource scarcity. Methods This article sets out to discuss and analyze the described collapse of health services through a brief case study on provision of Emergency Obstetric Care in Northern Tanzania. Results The article argues that post the Alma Ata conference on Primary Health Care developments in global health initiatives have not been successful in incorporating population trust into the frameworks, instead focusing narrowly on expert-driven solutions through concepts such as prevention and interventions. The need for quantifiable results has pushed international policy makers and donors towards vertical programmes, intervention approaches, preventive services and quantity as the coverage parameter. Health systems have consequently been pushed away from generalized horizontal care, curative services and quality assurance, all important determinants of trust. Conclusions Trust can be restored, and to further this objective a new framework is proposed placing generalized services and individual curative care in the centre of the health sector policy domain. Preventive services are important, but should increasingly be handled by other sectors in a service focused health care system. To facilitate such a shift in focus we should acknowledge that limited resources are available and accept the conflict between population demand and expert opinion, with the aim of providing legitimate, accountable and trustworthy services through fair, deliberative, dynamic and incremental processes. A discussion of the acceptable level of quality, given the available resources, can then be conducted. The article presents for debate that an increased focus on quality and accountability to secure trust is an important precondition for enabling the political commitment to mobilize necessary resources to the health sector. PMID:20500857

Climate change and natural disasters – integrating science and practice to protect health

PubMed Central

Sauerborn, Rainer; Ebi, Kristie

2012-01-01

Background Hydro-meteorological disasters are the focus of this paper. The authors examine, to which extent climate change increases their frequency and intensity. Methods Review of IPCC-projections of climate-change related extreme weather events and related literature on health effects. Results Projections show that climate change is likely to increase the frequency, intensity, duration, and spatial distribution of a range of extreme weather events over coming decades. Conclusions There is a need for strengthened collaboration between climate scientists, the health researchers and policy-makers as well as the disaster community to jointly develop adaptation strategies to protect human. PMID:23273248

Redesigning healthcare systems to meet the health challenges associated with climate change in the twenty-first century.

PubMed

Phua, Kai-Lit

2015-01-01

In the twenty-first century, climate change is emerging as a significant threat to the health and well-being of the public through links to the following: extreme weather events, sea level rise, temperature-related illnesses, air pollution patterns, water security, food security, vector-borne infectious diseases, and mental health effects (as a result of extreme weather events and climate change-induced population displacement). This article discusses how national healthcare systems can be redesigned through changes in its components such as human resources, facilities and technology, health information system, and health policy to meet these challenges.

The relative importance among anthropogenic forcings of land use/land cover change in affecting temperature extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Liang; Dirmeyer, Paul A.

2018-05-01

Land use/land cover change (LULCC) exerts significant influence on regional climate extremes, but its relative importance compared with other anthropogenic climate forcings has not been thoroughly investigated. This study compares land use forcing with other forcing agents in explaining the simulated historical temperature extreme changes since preindustrial times in the CESM-Last Millennium Ensemble (LME) project. CESM-LME suggests that the land use forcing has caused an overall cooling in both warm and cold extremes, and has significantly decreased diurnal temperature range (DTR). Due to the competing effects of the GHG and aerosol forcings, the spatial pattern of changes in 1850-2005 climatology of temperature extremes in CESM-LME can be largely explained by the land use forcing, especially for hot extremes and DTR. The dominance of land use forcing is particularly evident over Europe, eastern China, and the central and eastern US. Temporally, the land-use cooling is relatively stable throughout the historical period, while the warming of temperature extremes is mainly influenced by the enhanced GHG forcing, which has gradually dampened the local dominance of the land use effects. Results from the suite of CMIP5 experiments partially agree with the local dominance of the land use forcing in CESM-LME, but inter-model discrepancies exist in the distribution and sign of the LULCC-induced temperature changes. Our results underline the overall importance of LULCC in historical temperature extreme changes, implying land use forcing should be highlighted in future climate projections.

Comparative Policy Brief: Status of Intellectual Disabilities in Nepal

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Crishna, Brinda; Prajapati, Surya Bhakta

2008-01-01

In Nepal, the estimates of the prevalence of disabilities vary, and there is sparse information specifically about people with intellectual disabilities (ID). Existing data suggest higher rates of prevalence of ID in the more remote northern area due to use of non-iodized salt, lack of health facilities, and extreme poverty. Superstitious beliefs…

Countering School Bullying: An Analysis of Policy Content in Ontario and Saskatchewan

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Roberge, Ginette Diane

2011-01-01

The incidence of extreme school violence as a direct consequence of bullying among peers, exacerbated by vast media attention, has caused educational institutions worldwide to put bullying intervention and prevention strategies into operation. This study focused on an overview of two provincewide antibullying incentives in the Canadian provinces…

Achievement, Poverty and Privatization in England: Policy and Evidence

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wrigley, Terry

2012-01-01

For many years, England has been the epitome of high-stakes accountability, often playing leapfrog with the USA. It represents an extreme of centralized surveillance, with schools organized as a quasi-market and supervised through a punitive combination of external inspection, the use of test data to name and shame schools, and ultimately closure…

Education and Its Limitations in the Maintenance of Peace in El Salvador.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Moncada-Davidson, Lillian

1995-01-01

Points out weaknesses in Salvadoran government policies, which seek to reform public education and build human capital in the interests of long-term economic development but fail to address extreme poverty and social inequality. Suggests that support for existing grass-roots economic and educational projects would help the poor and thereby…

DEMON, MARK II: AN EXTREMAL EQUATION APPROACH TO NEW PRODUCT MARKETING,

DTIC Science & Technology

Numerous alternatives are available in the kinds of studies which can be elected in the market research which should precede the introduction of a...profit). A chart is provided for interpreting these and other aspects of policy which bear on the problems of marketing a new product and, by reference

Open Educational Resources and the Transformation of Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tuomi, Ilkka

2013-01-01

The extremely rapid expansion of open educational resource (OER) initiatives and the millions of learners they attract can be understood as an indicator of an emerging revolution in education and learning. This article describes recent developments in this area and develops conceptual foundations for studies and policies on OER. We describe four…

Susceptibility of South Korea to hydrologic extremes affecting the global food system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Puma, M. J.; Chon, S. Y.

2015-12-01

Food security in South Korea is closely linked to trade in the global food system. The country's production of major grains declined from 5.8 million metric tons (mmt) in 1998 to 4.8 mmt in 2014, which coincided with a shift in grain self sufficiency from 43% down to 24% over this same period. Many factors led to these changes, including reductions in domestic agricultural land, governmental policies supporting industry over agriculture, and a push towards trade liberalization. South Korea's self sufficiency is now one of the lowest among Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries, leaving it vulnerable to disruptions in the global food system. Here we explore this vulnerability by assessing how global trade disruptions would affect Korea's food security. We impose historical extreme drought and flood events that would possibly affect today's major food producing regions concurrently. Next we compute food supply deficits in South Korea that might result from these events. Our analyses provide a framework for formulating domestic food policies to enhance South Korea's food security in the increasingly fragile global food system.

Medicare Program; Cancellation of Advancing Care Coordination Through Episode Payment and Cardiac Rehabilitation Incentive Payment Models; Changes to Comprehensive Care for Joint Replacement Payment Model: Extreme and Uncontrollable Circumstances Policy for the Comprehensive Care for Joint Replacement Payment Model. Final rule; interim final rule with comment period.

PubMed

2017-12-01

This final rule cancels the Episode Payment Models (EPMs) and Cardiac Rehabilitation (CR) Incentive Payment Model and rescinds the regulations governing these models. It also implements certain revisions to the Comprehensive Care for Joint Replacement (CJR) model, including: Giving certain hospitals selected for participation in the CJR model a one-time option to choose whether to continue their participation in the model; technical refinements and clarifications for certain payment, reconciliation and quality provisions; and a change to increase the pool of eligible clinicians that qualify as affiliated practitioners under the Advanced Alternative Payment Model (Advanced APM) track. An interim final rule with comment period is being issued in conjunction with this final rule in order to address the need for a policy to provide some flexibility in the determination of episode costs for providers located in areas impacted by extreme and uncontrollable circumstances.

Primary journal selection using citations from an indexing service journal: a method and example from nursing literature.

PubMed Central

Hafner, A W

1976-01-01

Although serial literature is extremely important to a library collection, it is also the source of many problems. Specialty journal selection is difficult, particularly for the librarian of a small or intermediate-size library that is not in a position to develop or maintain an exhaustive or inclusive collection in a particular field or discipline. Steadily increasing journal costs and recent economic trends necessitate establishment or reexamination of a periodical collection policy. In this investigation, the technique used analyzes citations assigned to medical subject headings (MeSH) and subheadings by indexers who prepare the MEDLARS data base. Citations have been retrieved by exploiting the on-line nature of the MEDLARS data base. A four-year time period is used to identify specialty journals in the area of nursing. Results given include a separate rank-order listing arranged by decreasing frequency of productivity for each MeSH term searched. A composite listing is given for the 16,355 unique citations retrieved. The approach illustrated and data presented may be useful in establishing library policy for questions of periodical subscription and setting of priorities for binding and microform purchases. The purpose of the approach described is to predict collection demand with efficiency and economy. PMID:974295

Combining disparate data sources for improved poverty prediction and mapping.

PubMed

Pokhriyal, Neeti; Jacques, Damien Christophe

2017-11-14

More than 330 million people are still living in extreme poverty in Africa. Timely, accurate, and spatially fine-grained baseline data are essential to determining policy in favor of reducing poverty. The potential of "Big Data" to estimate socioeconomic factors in Africa has been proven. However, most current studies are limited to using a single data source. We propose a computational framework to accurately predict the Global Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI) at a finest spatial granularity and coverage of 552 communes in Senegal using environmental data (related to food security, economic activity, and accessibility to facilities) and call data records (capturing individualistic, spatial, and temporal aspects of people). Our framework is based on Gaussian Process regression, a Bayesian learning technique, providing uncertainty associated with predictions. We perform model selection using elastic net regularization to prevent overfitting. Our results empirically prove the superior accuracy when using disparate data (Pearson correlation of 0.91). Our approach is used to accurately predict important dimensions of poverty: health, education, and standard of living (Pearson correlation of 0.84-0.86). All predictions are validated using deprivations calculated from census. Our approach can be used to generate poverty maps frequently, and its diagnostic nature is, likely, to assist policy makers in designing better interventions for poverty eradication. Copyright © 2017 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.

Combining disparate data sources for improved poverty prediction and mapping

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

More than 330 million people are still living in extreme poverty in Africa. Timely, accurate, and spatially fine-grained baseline data are essential to determining policy in favor of reducing poverty. The potential of “Big Data” to estimate socioeconomic factors in Africa has been proven. However, most current studies are limited to using a single data source. We propose a computational framework to accurately predict the Global Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI) at a finest spatial granularity and coverage of 552 communes in Senegal using environmental data (related to food security, economic activity, and accessibility to facilities) and call data records (capturing individualistic, spatial, and temporal aspects of people). Our framework is based on Gaussian Process regression, a Bayesian learning technique, providing uncertainty associated with predictions. We perform model selection using elastic net regularization to prevent overfitting. Our results empirically prove the superior accuracy when using disparate data (Pearson correlation of 0.91). Our approach is used to accurately predict important dimensions of poverty: health, education, and standard of living (Pearson correlation of 0.84–0.86). All predictions are validated using deprivations calculated from census. Our approach can be used to generate poverty maps frequently, and its diagnostic nature is, likely, to assist policy makers in designing better interventions for poverty eradication. PMID:29087949

Perceptions Regarding Importance and Skill at Policy Development Among Public Health Staff

PubMed Central

Castrucci, Brian C.; Leider, Jonathon P.; Sellers, Katie

2015-01-01

Context: Policy development is recognized as a core function of public health and a core competency in formal public health education. However, relatively little is known nationally about worker perceptions and competencies related to policy development in the governmental public health workforce. Objective: To characterize perceived importance and presence or absence of competency gaps related to policy development. Design: As part of the Public Health Workforce Interests and Needs Survey (PH WINS), a nationally representative stratified sample of permanently employed state health agency (SHA) central office staff was created. Descriptive and inferential analyses examined correlates of perceived importance and competency gaps related to policy development. Setting and Participants: Permanently employed central office employees of SHAs. Main Outcome Measure: Analyses focus on 2 self-reported measures of perceived importance and ability related to policy development skills, as well as awareness and perceptions regarding Health in All Policies (HiAP). Results: Seventy-two percent of SHA central office staff (95% confidence interval, 71-73) indicated “influencing policy development” was somewhat or very important to their day-to-day work. Among that group, 35% (95% confidence interval, 34-36) reported that they were unable to perform this or they considered themselves to be a beginner at this skill. Approximately three-fourths of staff indicated “understanding the relationship between a new policy and many types of public health problems” was somewhat or very important, and 30% of those who did said they were unable to perform this skill or were a beginner at it. Nationally, one-half of staff have not heard of HiAP. Among those who have, 86% indicated it was somewhat or very important to public health, and 41% reported they would like to see more emphasis on HiAP. Conclusions: Workforce development, both formal education and on-the-job training, may benefit from placing a greater emphasis on the development of policy skills. HiAP is an important approach to policy development. PMID:26422484

Using Unplanned Fires to Help Suppressing Future Large Fires in Mediterranean Forests

PubMed Central

Regos, Adrián; Aquilué, Núria; Retana, Javier; De Cáceres, Miquel; Brotons, Lluís

2014-01-01

Despite the huge resources invested in fire suppression, the impact of wildfires has considerably increased across the Mediterranean region since the second half of the 20th century. Modulating fire suppression efforts in mild weather conditions is an appealing but hotly-debated strategy to use unplanned fires and associated fuel reduction to create opportunities for suppression of large fires in future adverse weather conditions. Using a spatially-explicit fire–succession model developed for Catalonia (Spain), we assessed this opportunistic policy by using two fire suppression strategies that reproduce how firefighters in extreme weather conditions exploit previous fire scars as firefighting opportunities. We designed scenarios by combining different levels of fire suppression efficiency and climatic severity for a 50-year period (2000–2050). An opportunistic fire suppression policy induced large-scale changes in fire regimes and decreased the area burnt under extreme climate conditions, but only accounted for up to 18–22% of the area to be burnt in reference scenarios. The area suppressed in adverse years tended to increase in scenarios with increasing amounts of area burnt during years dominated by mild weather. Climate change had counterintuitive effects on opportunistic fire suppression strategies. Climate warming increased the incidence of large fires under uncontrolled conditions but also indirectly increased opportunities for enhanced fire suppression. Therefore, to shift fire suppression opportunities from adverse to mild years, we would require a disproportionately large amount of area burnt in mild years. We conclude that the strategic planning of fire suppression resources has the potential to become an important cost-effective fuel-reduction strategy at large spatial scale. We do however suggest that this strategy should probably be accompanied by other fuel-reduction treatments applied at broad scales if large-scale changes in fire regimes are to be achieved, especially in the wider context of climate change. PMID:24727853

Using unplanned fires to help suppressing future large fires in Mediterranean forests.

PubMed

Regos, Adrián; Aquilué, Núria; Retana, Javier; De Cáceres, Miquel; Brotons, Lluís

2014-01-01

Despite the huge resources invested in fire suppression, the impact of wildfires has considerably increased across the Mediterranean region since the second half of the 20th century. Modulating fire suppression efforts in mild weather conditions is an appealing but hotly-debated strategy to use unplanned fires and associated fuel reduction to create opportunities for suppression of large fires in future adverse weather conditions. Using a spatially-explicit fire-succession model developed for Catalonia (Spain), we assessed this opportunistic policy by using two fire suppression strategies that reproduce how firefighters in extreme weather conditions exploit previous fire scars as firefighting opportunities. We designed scenarios by combining different levels of fire suppression efficiency and climatic severity for a 50-year period (2000-2050). An opportunistic fire suppression policy induced large-scale changes in fire regimes and decreased the area burnt under extreme climate conditions, but only accounted for up to 18-22% of the area to be burnt in reference scenarios. The area suppressed in adverse years tended to increase in scenarios with increasing amounts of area burnt during years dominated by mild weather. Climate change had counterintuitive effects on opportunistic fire suppression strategies. Climate warming increased the incidence of large fires under uncontrolled conditions but also indirectly increased opportunities for enhanced fire suppression. Therefore, to shift fire suppression opportunities from adverse to mild years, we would require a disproportionately large amount of area burnt in mild years. We conclude that the strategic planning of fire suppression resources has the potential to become an important cost-effective fuel-reduction strategy at large spatial scale. We do however suggest that this strategy should probably be accompanied by other fuel-reduction treatments applied at broad scales if large-scale changes in fire regimes are to be achieved, especially in the wider context of climate change.

Policy entrepreneurship in the development of public sector strategy: the case of London health reform.

PubMed

Oborn, Eivor; Barrett, Michael; Exworthy, Mark

2011-01-01

The development of health policy is recognized as complex; however, there has been little development of the role of agency in this process. Kingdon developed the concept of policy entrepreneur (PE) within his ‘windows’ model. He argued inter-related ‘policy streams' must coincide for important issues to become addressed. The conjoining of these streams may be aided by a policy entrepreneur. We contribute by clarifying the role of the policy entrepreneur and highlighting the translational processes of key actors in creating and aligning policy windows. We analyse the work in London of Professor Sir Ara Darzi as a policy entrepreneur. An important aspect of Darzi's approach was to align a number of important institutional networks to conjoin related problems. Our findings highlight how a policy entrepreneur not only opens policy windows but also yokes together a network to make policy agendas happen. Our contribution reveals the role of clinical leadership in health reform.

The EU environmental policy context for monitoring for and with raptors in Europe.

PubMed

Duke, Guy

2008-09-01

This paper outlines the importance of the policy context for monitoring with and for raptors, and, conversely, of the importance of such monitoring for policy. It then outlines two key areas of European Union (EU) environmental policy most relevant to monitoring for and with raptors, namely biodiversity policy and pollution policy. For each of the policy areas, the pertinent objectives and actions of the current EU policy are identified, and their relevance for raptor monitoring is discussed. The potential contribution of raptor monitoring to the further development of these policy areas is also addressed.

Dependencies of Europe's economy on water resources outside its borders and its vulnerability to weather extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chico Zamanillo, Daniel; Chapagain, Ashok; Ercin, Ertug

2017-04-01

Europe's economy is dependent on water resources elsewhere in the world since many of the goods consumed in the EU are not produced domestically, but abroad. Reliance on food, energy and goods produced in regions outside of the EU may impose water related risks on different economic sectors within the EU due to vulnerability of water resources used in their production to hydrological extremes and climate change. IMPREX project addresses this economic dependency and water resources vulnerability to hydrological extremes and climate change under WP12 "Water Economy". This study presents the results of the first task of WP12, mapping current dependencies of European economy on water resources outside its borders and their vulnerability to drought and water scarcity. In our assessment, we have used water footprint, which is a measure of the appropriation of freshwater resources for human activities, and is comprised of three components - green (consumption of rainfall), blue (consumption of surface and groundwater) and grey (refers to water pollution). We first calculated virtual water import, the amount of water consumed in producing products imported to the EU, and we identified key products - those making up the largest virtual water inflows to the EU. After mapping the dependencies, we assessed water scarcity and drought severity in producing locations. Coupling this with the water footprint enabled us to map the EU's external water dependencies and to identify when and where vulnerabilities may lie, in terms of blue water scarcity and drought. Overall, external green water resources account for 41% of the total green water footprint of the EU's economy. Soybean, cocoa, coffee, oil palm, sunflower, maize and olives are identified as key products from the perspective of green virtual water import to the EU. Soybean is the crop with the largest virtual water import volume to the EU with imports coming from Argentina, Brazil and USA. Europe relies on soybean import to meet demand for meat and dairy products. Although around 99.5% of the green virtual water import to the EU related to soybean comes from locations with low drought risk, this is likely to change due to disruption of rainfall patterns under climate change in coming years. The vulnerability of 91% of the green virtual water import related to other key products is determined as "low". Thirty percent of the blue water resources consumed in production fueling Europe's economy come from external sources. The key products identified for blue virtual water import are rice, sugar cane, cotton, almonds, pistachios, grapes and soybean. These key products are sourced from areas under significant or severe water scarcity, thus making most blue water imports highly vulnerable. For example, 91% of almond and 74% of rice blue virtual water import to the EU are categorized as highly vulnerable. The results of this study and future tasks of WP12 will help governments, European policies and companies in their mid- and long-term planning for sustainable development in light of climate change, population growth and increased demand for products and services.

The "Gainful Employment Rule" and Student Loan Defaults: How the Policy Frame Overlooks Important Normative Implications

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Serna, Gabriel

2014-01-01

This essay examines normative aspects of the gainful employment rule and how the policy frame and image miss important implications for student aid policy. Because the economic and social burdens associated with the policy are typically borne by certain socioeconomic and ethnic groups, the policy frame and image do not identify possible negative…

21st Century Science for Sustainable Development in the Developing World

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sachs, J. D.

2004-12-01

Meeting the Millennium Development Goals and, ultimately, eradicating extreme poverty, engages experts from many academic disciplines and different parts of society- climatologists, earth engineers, ecologists, economists, public health specialists, social activists, and politicians. We are in the midst of exciting technological and scientific breakthroughs that make it realistic to end extreme poverty by 2025. Indeed, the experiences of China and India in recent years have illustrated that technology can accelerate economic development to impressively high rates. India, which boasts growth rates of nearly 8% over the past decade, may end hunger among its population as early as 2007, thanks in large part to the Green Revolution underway there. The work of agronomists and economists are not unrelated - the science behind soil nutrients, water, and germplasm all fuel sustainable development. Science and technology are important ingredients for growth, and they are improving at an ever-increasing rate. When applied for the sake of human benefit, we have a tool of unprecedented strength. But the developing world has also reached a point of unprecedented environmental stress. Biodiversity faces serious threats, as do water supplies, forests, and the atmosphere. Developing and developed nations continue to grapple with the consequences of greenhouse gas emissions. We must maintain our scientific investigations and analysis while ensuring that development policy addresses long-term environmental needs. The energy sector is one obvious example. Several developing countries, China and India included, harbor vast coal deposits. Fueling development with coal will drastically exacerbate the ongoing spiral of man-made climate change. My presentation will focus on the contributions that 21st century science can make-indeed, must make-to ensure that sustainable development occurs and we meet the Millennium Challenge of cutting extreme poverty in half by 2015.

Explorations Around "Graceful Failure" in Transportation Infrastructure: Lessons Learned By the Infrastructure and Climate Network (ICNet)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jacobs, J. M.; Thomas, N.; Mo, W.; Kirshen, P. H.; Douglas, E. M.; Daniel, J.; Bell, E.; Friess, L.; Mallick, R.; Kartez, J.; Hayhoe, K.; Croope, S.

2014-12-01

Recent events have demonstrated that the United States' transportation infrastructure is highly vulnerable to extreme weather events which will likely increase in the future. In light of the 60% shortfall of the $900 billion investment needed over the next five years to maintain this aging infrastructure, hardening of all infrastructures is unlikely. Alternative strategies are needed to ensure that critical aspects of the transportation network are maintained during climate extremes. Preliminary concepts around multi-tier service expectations of bridges and roads with reference to network capacity will be presented. Drawing from recent flooding events across the U.S., specific examples for roads/pavement will be used to illustrate impacts, disruptions, and trade-offs between performance during events and subsequent damage. This talk will also address policy and cultural norms within the civil engineering practice that will likely challenge the application of graceful failure pathways during extreme events.

Storms or cold fronts? What is really responsible for the extreme waves regime in the Colombian Caribbean coast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Otero, L. J.; Ortiz-Royero, J. C.; Ruiz-Merchan, J. K.; Higgins, A. E.; Henriquez, S. A.

2015-05-01

On Friday, 7 March 2009, a 200 m-long section of the tourist pier in Puerto Colombia collapsed under the impact of the waves generated by a cold front in the area. The aim of this study is to determine the contribution and importance of cold fronts and storms on extreme waves in different areas of the Colombian Caribbean to determine the degree of the threat posed by the flood processes to which these coastal populations are exposed and the actions to which coastal engineering constructions should be subject. In the calculation of maritime constructions, the most important parameter is the wave's height; therefore, it is necessary to definitively know the design wave height to which a coastal engineering structure should be resistant. This wave height varies according to the return period considered. Using Gumbel's extreme value methodology, the significant height values for the study area were calculated. The methodology was evaluated using data from the re-analysis of the spectral NOAA Wavewatch III (WW3) model for 15 points along the 1600 km of the Colombia Caribbean coast (continental and insular) of the last 15 years. The results demonstrated that the extreme waves caused by tropical cyclones and cold fronts have different effects along the Colombian Caribbean coast. Storms and hurricanes are of greater importance in the Guajira Peninsula (Alta Guajira). In the central area formed by Baja Guajira, Santa Marta, Barranquilla, and Cartagena, the strong influence of cold fronts on extreme waves is evident. On the other hand, in the southern region of the Colombian Caribbean coast, from the Gulf of Morrosquillo to the Gulf of Urabá, even though extreme waves are lower than in the previous regions, extreme waves are dominated mainly by the passage of cold fronts. Extreme waves in the San Andrés and Providencia insular region present a different dynamic from that in the continental area due to its geographic location. The wave heights in the extreme regime are similar in magnitude to those found in Alta Guajira, but the extreme waves associated with the passage of cold fronts in this region have lower return periods than the extreme waves associated with hurricane season. These results are of great importance when evaluating the threat of extreme waves in the coastal and port infrastructure, for purposes of the design of new constructions, and in the coastal flood processes due to run-up because, according to the site of interest in the coast, the forces that shape extreme waves are not the same.

From "Import" to "Import-Export" Oriented Internationalization: The Impact of National Policy on Scholarly Publication in China

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Feng, Haiying; Beckett, Gulbahar H.; Huang, Dawang

2013-01-01

This article examines the evolution of national research policy in China over the past three decades and its recent shift in emphasis from "import" to "import-export" oriented internationalization. Based on a policy review and interviews with three groups of academics--six journal editors in the humanities and social sciences,…

The potential impacts of climate variability and change on health impacts of extreme weather events in the United States.

PubMed Central

Greenough, G; McGeehin, M; Bernard, S M; Trtanj, J; Riad, J; Engelberg, D

2001-01-01

Extreme weather events such as precipitation extremes and severe storms cause hundreds of deaths and injuries annually in the United States. Climate change may alter the frequency, timing, intensity, and duration of these events. Increases in heavy precipitation have occurred over the past century. Future climate scenarios show likely increases in the frequency of extreme precipitation events, including precipitation during hurricanes, raising the risk of floods. Frequencies of tornadoes and hurricanes cannot reliably be projected. Injury and death are the direct health impacts most often associated with natural disasters. Secondary effects, mediated by changes in ecologic systems and public health infrastructure, also occur. The health impacts of extreme weather events hinge on the vulnerabilities and recovery capacities of the natural environment and the local population. Relevant variables include building codes, warning systems, disaster policies, evacuation plans, and relief efforts. There are many federal, state, and local government agencies and nongovernmental organizations involved in planning for and responding to natural disasters in the United States. Future research on health impacts of extreme weather events should focus on improving climate models to project any trends in regional extreme events and as a result improve public health preparedness and mitigation. Epidemiologic studies of health effects beyond the direct impacts of disaster will provide a more accurate measure of the full health impacts and will assist in planning and resource allocation. PMID:11359686

Transformation and Resilience on Urban Coasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pelling, M.; Agboola, J.; Birkmann, J.; Grimmond, S. B.; Garschagen, M.; Link, H. D.; Narayanan, P.; Nishi, M.; Ramachandran, R., VI; Solecki, W.; Yamamuro, M.; Welle, T.; Ramachandran, P.; Ajibade, I.

2016-12-01

Large coastal cities are at the forefront of efforts to manage vulnerability and build resilience in the face of multiple, interlinked threats. This paper presents results from the Belmont Forum project Transformation and Resilience on Urban Coasts (TRUC). TRUC aims to shift academic and policy discussion from an assessment of resilience options to an understanding of how cities can transition from one mode of resilience planning to another. In particular TRUC questions the relationship between dominant development trajectories and structures and risk management. Should risk management be deployed to support, adjust or fundamentally change dominant development trajectories and its attendant distributional and procedural justice outcomes? TRUC deployed an interdisciplinary approach bringing together scenario workshops, integrated biophysical and vulnerability modelling, expert and household interviews to open spaces for stakeholders to reflect on existing risk management-development relationships, their determinants, preferences for transition to new states and barriers and opportunities for transition. Results are presented for five global megacities: Kolkata, Lagos, London, New York and Tokyo. Contemporary risk management for these global megacities is found to be rooted in historical events with policy innovation following on from extreme events rather than anticipating future risk. Emergent coastal hazards, most importantly heatwave, are consistently underemphasised in planning and technical capacity. Professionals express a desire to move risk management from a reactive mode aimed at protecting development gains towards a more proactive position and one that can embrace integrated development issues. Barriers to this transition include top-down and centralised planning that makes innovation difficult and slow and variable relations between science and policy communities that make it difficult for high level planners to access novel science opinion.

Comparative cervical profiles of adult and under-18 front-row rugby players: implications for playing policy

PubMed Central

Hamilton, D F; Gatherer, D; Robson, J; Graham, N; Rennie, N; MacLean, J G B; Simpson, A H R W

2014-01-01

Objective To compare the cervical isometric strength, fatigue endurance and range of motion of adult and under-18 age-grade front-row rugby players to inform the development of a safe age group policy with particular reference to scrummaging. Design Cross-sectional cohort study. Setting ‘Field testing’ at Murrayfield stadium. Participants 30 high-performance under-18 players and 22 adult front-row rugby players. Outcome measures Isometric neck strength, height, weight and grip strength. Results Youth players demonstrated the same height and grip strength as the adult players; however, the adults were significantly heavier and demonstrated substantially greater isometric strength (p<0.001). Only two of the ‘elite’ younger players could match the adult mean cervical isometric strength value. In contrast to school age players in general, grip strength was poorly associated with neck strength (r=0.2) in front-row players; instead, player weight (r=0.4) and the number of years’ experience of playing in the front row (r=0.5) were the only relevant factors in multivariate modelling of cervical strength (R2=0.3). Conclusions Extreme forces are generated between opposing front rows in the scrum and avoidance of mismatch is important if the risk of injury is to be minimised. Although elite youth front-row rugby players demonstrate the same peripheral strength as their adult counterparts on grip testing, the adults demonstrate significantly greater cervical strength. If older youths and adults are to play together, such findings have to be noted in the development of age group policies with particular reference to the scrum. PMID:24797427

Comparative cervical profiles of adult and under-18 front-row rugby players: implications for playing policy.

PubMed

Hamilton, D F; Gatherer, D; Robson, J; Graham, N; Rennie, N; Maclean, J G B; Simpson, A H R W

2014-05-05

To compare the cervical isometric strength, fatigue endurance and range of motion of adult and under-18 age-grade front-row rugby players to inform the development of a safe age group policy with particular reference to scrummaging. Cross-sectional cohort study. 'Field testing' at Murrayfield stadium. 30 high-performance under-18 players and 22 adult front-row rugby players. Isometric neck strength, height, weight and grip strength. Youth players demonstrated the same height and grip strength as the adult players; however, the adults were significantly heavier and demonstrated substantially greater isometric strength (p<0.001). Only two of the 'elite' younger players could match the adult mean cervical isometric strength value. In contrast to school age players in general, grip strength was poorly associated with neck strength (r=0.2) in front-row players; instead, player weight (r=0.4) and the number of years' experience of playing in the front row (r=0.5) were the only relevant factors in multivariate modelling of cervical strength (R(2)=0.3). Extreme forces are generated between opposing front rows in the scrum and avoidance of mismatch is important if the risk of injury is to be minimised. Although elite youth front-row rugby players demonstrate the same peripheral strength as their adult counterparts on grip testing, the adults demonstrate significantly greater cervical strength. If older youths and adults are to play together, such findings have to be noted in the development of age group policies with particular reference to the scrum.

In every drop a job - On the nexus between Water, Economic Development and Jobs and key role of socio-hydrology for good policy making

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Uhlenbrook, Stefan; Connor, Rick; Kogacul, Engin

2016-04-01

This presentation is based on the main findings of the World Water Development Report (WWDR) 2016 entitled Water and Jobs. It clearly demonstrates the linkage between water, jobs and economic development and the important role socio-hydrology has to play to inform society and support good policy making. Water is an essential component of national and local economies, and is needed to create and maintain jobs across all sectors of the economy. Half of the global workforce is employed in eight water and natural resource-dependent industries: agriculture, forestry, fisheries, energy, resource-intensive manufacturing, recycling, building and transport. Sustainable water management, water infrastructure and access to a safe, reliable and affordable supply of water and adequate sanitation services improve living standards, expand local economies, and lead to the creation of more decent jobs and greater social inclusion. Sustainable water management is also an essential driver of green growth and sustainable development. Conversely, neglecting water issues runs the risk of imposing serious negative impacts on economies, livelihoods and populations with potentially catastrophic and extremely costly results. Unsustainable management of water and other natural resources can cause severe damages to economies and to society, thus reversing many poverty reduction, job creation and hard-won development gains. Addressing the water-jobs nexus, notably through coordinated policies and investments, is therefore a prerequisite to sustainable development in both developed and developing countries and, consequently, addresses directly the Agenda 2030 for Sustainable Developments and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).

Spatial Dynamic Optimization of Groundwater Use with Ecological Standards for Instream Flow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brozovic, N.; Han, J.; Speir, C.

2011-12-01

Instream flow requirements for protected species in arid and semi-arid regions have created the need to reduce groundwater use adjacent to streams. We present an integrated hydrologic-economic model that optimizes agricultural groundwater use next to streams with flow standards. Policies to meet instream flow standards should aim to minimize the welfare losses to irrigated agriculture due to reduced pumping. Previous economic studies have proposed spatially targeted water allocations between groundwater irrigators and instream demands. However, these studies focused on meeting aggregate instream flow goals on a seasonal or yearly basis rather than meeting them on a continuous basis. Temporally aggregated goals ignore important intra-seasonal hydrologic effects and may not provide sufficient habitat quality for species of concern. We present an optimization model that solves for groundwater pumping allocations across space in a stream-aquifer system with instream flow goals that must be met on a daily basis. We combine an analytical model of stream depletion with a farm profit maximization model that includes cumulative crop yield damages from water stress. The objective is the minimization of agricultural losses from reduced groundwater use while minimum instream flow requirements for ecological needs are met on a daily basis. As a case study, we apply our model to the Scott River Basin in northern California. This is a region where stream depletion resulting from extensive irrigation has degraded habitat for Coho salmon, a species protected under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. Our results indicate the importance of considering the lag between the time at which pumping occurs and the time at which stream depletion related to that pumping occurs. In general, we find that wells located farther from the stream should be allocated more water in most hydrologic scenarios. However, we also find that the spatial and temporal distribution of optimal groundwater pumping can differ dramatically depending on the level of streamflow and instream flow targets. In particular, we find that in drought years wells located closer to the stream might be allocated more water than wells farther from the stream. This counterintuitive result is driven by spatial variability in the time lag associated with the stream depletion externality following pumping. Any period of time during the year with extreme water scarcity requires a cessation of pumping in advance of that period so that stream depletion impacts can adequately dissipate before the start of the period. Wells that are farther away from the stream cause higher stream depletion impacts following the cessation of pumping, so they may need to cease pumping earlier in advance of the period of extreme water scarcity. The analysis also suggests that in our case study area, the Scott River Basin, policies that are spatially and temporally targeted may lead to welfare costs that are 30 percent less than welfare losses under uniform pumping restrictions. The relative welfare gains of the targeted policy over the uniform reduction policy increase as the scarcity of the instream water supply increases.

City scale climate change policies: Do they matter for wellbeing?

PubMed

Hiscock, Rosemary; Asikainen, Arja; Tuomisto, Jouni; Jantunen, Matti; Pärjälä, Erkki; Sabel, Clive E

2017-06-01

Climate change mitigation policies aim to reduce climate change through reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions whereas adaption policies seek to enable humans to live in a world with increasingly variable and more extreme climatic conditions. It is increasingly realised that enacting such policies will have unintended implications for public health, but there has been less focus on their implications for wellbeing. Wellbeing can be defined as a positive mental state which is influenced by living conditions. As part of URGENCHE, an EU funded project to identify health and wellbeing outcomes of city greenhouse gas emission reduction policies, a survey designed to measure these living conditions and levels of wellbeing in Kuopio, Finland was collected in December 2013. Kuopio was the northmost among seven cities in Europe and China studied. Generalised estimating equation modelling was used to determine which living conditions were associated with subjective wellbeing (measured through the WHO-5 Scale). Local greenspace and spending time in nature were associated with higher levels of wellbeing whereas cold housing and poor quality indoor air were associated with lower levels of wellbeing. Thus adaption policies to increase greenspace might, in addition to reducing heat island effects, have the co-benefit of increasing wellbeing and improving housing insulation.

Droughts and governance impacts on water scarcity: an~analysis in the Brazilian semi-arid

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Silva, A. C. S.; Galvão, C. O.; Silva, G. N. S.

2015-06-01

Extreme events are part of climate variability. Dealing with variability is still a challenge that might be increased due to climate change. However, impacts of extreme events are not only dependent on their variability, but also on management and governance. In Brazil, its semi-arid region is vulnerable to extreme events, especially droughts, for centuries. Actually, other Brazilian regions that have been mostly concerned with floods are currently also experiencing droughts. This article evaluates how a combination between climate variability and water governance might affect water scarcity and increase the impacts of extreme events on some regions. For this evaluation, Ostrom's framework for analyzing social-ecological systems (SES) was applied. Ostrom's framework is useful for understanding interactions between resource systems, governance systems and resource users. This study focuses on social-ecological systems located in a drought-prone region of Brazil. Two extreme events were selected, one in 1997-2000, when Brazil's new water policy was very young, and the other one in 2012-2015. The analysis of SES considering Ostrom's principle "Clearly defined boundaries" showed that deficiencies in water management cause the intensification of drought's impacts for the water users. The reasons are more related to water management and governance problems than to drought event magnitude or climate change. This is a problem that holdup advances in dealing with extreme events.

American football and fatal exertional heat stroke: a case study of Korey Stringer.

PubMed

Grundstein, Andrew; Knox, John A; Vanos, Jennifer; Cooper, Earl R; Casa, Douglas J

2017-08-01

On August 1, 2001, Korey Stringer, a Pro Bowl offensive tackle for the Minnesota Vikings, became the first and to date the only professional American football player to die from exertional heat stroke (EHS). The death helped raise awareness of the dangers of exertional heat illnesses in athletes and prompted the development of heat safety policies at the professional, collegiate, and interscholastic levels. Despite the public awareness of this death, no published study has examined in detail the circumstances surrounding Stringer's fatal EHS. Using the well-documented details of the case, our study shows that Stringer's fatal EHS was the result of a combination of physiological limitations, organizational and treatment failings, and extreme environmental conditions. The COMfort FormulA (COMFA) energy budget model was used to assess the relative importance of several extrinsic factors on Stringer's EHS, including weather conditions, clothing insulation, and activity levels. We found that Stringer's high-intensity training in relation to the oppressive environmental conditions was the most prominent factor in producing dangerous, uncompensable heat stress conditions and that the full football uniform played a smaller role in influencing Stringer's energy budget. The extreme energy budget levels that led to the fatal EHS would have been avoided according to our modeling through a combination of reduced intensity and lower clothing insulation. Finally, a long delay in providing medical treatment made the EHS fatal. These results highlight the importance of modern heat safety guidelines that provide controls on extrinsic factors, such as the adjustment of duration and intensity of training along with protective equipment modifications based on environmental conditions and the presence of an emergency action plan focused on rapid recognition and immediate on-site aggressive cooling of EHS cases.

American football and fatal exertional heat stroke: a case study of Korey Stringer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grundstein, Andrew; Knox, John A.; Vanos, Jennifer; Cooper, Earl R.; Casa, Douglas J.

2017-08-01

On August 1, 2001, Korey Stringer, a Pro Bowl offensive tackle for the Minnesota Vikings, became the first and to date the only professional American football player to die from exertional heat stroke (EHS). The death helped raise awareness of the dangers of exertional heat illnesses in athletes and prompted the development of heat safety policies at the professional, collegiate, and interscholastic levels. Despite the public awareness of this death, no published study has examined in detail the circumstances surrounding Stringer's fatal EHS. Using the well-documented details of the case, our study shows that Stringer's fatal EHS was the result of a combination of physiological limitations, organizational and treatment failings, and extreme environmental conditions. The COMfort FormulA (COMFA) energy budget model was used to assess the relative importance of several extrinsic factors on Stringer's EHS, including weather conditions, clothing insulation, and activity levels. We found that Stringer's high-intensity training in relation to the oppressive environmental conditions was the most prominent factor in producing dangerous, uncompensable heat stress conditions and that the full football uniform played a smaller role in influencing Stringer's energy budget. The extreme energy budget levels that led to the fatal EHS would have been avoided according to our modeling through a combination of reduced intensity and lower clothing insulation. Finally, a long delay in providing medical treatment made the EHS fatal. These results highlight the importance of modern heat safety guidelines that provide controls on extrinsic factors, such as the adjustment of duration and intensity of training along with protective equipment modifications based on environmental conditions and the presence of an emergency action plan focused on rapid recognition and immediate on-site aggressive cooling of EHS cases.

Swedish Schools and Gender Equality in the 1970s

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hedlin, Maria

2013-01-01

In Sweden, as in many countries before Sweden, boys' academic achievements are getting considerable attention as the big gender issue. The Swedish gender equality policy that was put on the agenda in the 1970s is now associated with extreme discussions. This study aims to explore how gender equality was discussed in the 1970s, in connection with…

The Effect of Simulated Altitude on the Visual Fields of Glaucoma Patients and the Elderly

DTIC Science & Technology

1991-01-01

certification policy does not appear to put pilots or passengers with glaucoma at risk for disease progression. Under short-term exposure to mild hypoxia, we...9. Kobrick JL, Crohn E, Shukitt B, Houston CS, Sutton JR, Cymerman A. Operation Everest II: lack of an effect of extreme altitude on visual contrast

A probabilistic view of chaparral and forest fire regimes in southern California and northern Baja California

Treesearch

Richard A. Minnich; Ernesto Franco-Vizcaíno

2009-01-01

Fire suppression in industrialized countries encourages massive smoke emissions from high-intensity fires as a result of two inextricably related processes under current suppression policies: the nonrandom occurrence of vegetation fires in extreme weather states and the anomalous accumulation of spatially homogenous fuels. We propose as an organizing idea that the...

Early Identification of Molecular Predictors of Heterotopic Ossification Following Extremity Blast Injury with a Biomarker Assay

DTIC Science & Technology

2018-03-01

Charleston SC, 29425 REPORT DATE: March 2018 TYPE OF REPORT : Final PREPARED FOR: U.S. Army Medical Research and Materiel Command Fort Detrick...this report are those of the author(s) and should not be construed as an official Department of the Army position, policy or decision unless so...

Impacting Policy Discourse? An Analysis of Discourses and Rhetorical Devices Deployed in the Case of the Academies Commission

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Francis, Becky

2015-01-01

Academisation of the English secondary school system has been extremely rapid and represents significant changes to the governance of the English school system. However, there has been a relative scarcity of attention to the rationales, rhetorics and discourses underpinning the academies programme. Seeking to address this gap, a poststructuralist…

Bring Back the Boys

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Carr-Chellman, Alison

2012-01-01

Boy culture is out of sync with school culture. There are several reasons for this, including zero tolerance policies that are too often taken to extremes, the lack of male teachers, and the compression of the curriculum. What's more, boy culture is not socially accepted, and boys quickly come to feel that they are not good at school. For many…

Pathfinder, v6 n2, Mar/Apr 2008. Strengthening NGA Partnerships Around the World

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-04-01

Office of International Affairs and Policy. What’s Next In fiscal year 2008, NGA plans to con- duct a gravity survey in an extremely remote and void...observer on Escudo de Veraguas Island. Perdue soon moved to Colombia as part of a team running a geodetic level line between Cali and Cartagena, walking

Learning for Development: The Commonwealth of Learning and the Millennium Development Goals

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Commonwealth of Learning, 2011

2011-01-01

World leaders, meeting at the United Nations in 2000, set eight Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) that aim to transform the condition of humankind in the 21st century. These Goals now guide the policies of governments and the priorities of development agencies. These eight goals are: (1) Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger; (2) Achieve…

A Jesuit Approach to Campus Speakers

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Herbeck, Dale A.

2007-01-01

In this article, the author examines the newly revised speakers policy in Boston College. The revised policy, defended by administrators as being consistent with past practice, differs in two important respects from the speakers policy it replaced. Lest the scope of this unfortunate policy be exaggerated, it is important to note that the policy…

Latest Reforms in Finnish Doctoral Education in Light of Recent European Developments

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kivistö, Jussi; Pekkola, Elias; Siekkinen, Taru

2017-01-01

Doctoral education as a policy field is an important link between educational, research and innovation policies. It is gaining importance in European and national policy discussions. Doctoral education policies are increasingly formulated at the supranational level, even though the European Commission does not possess formal competence in terms of…

Diffusion of laparoscopic cholecystectomy among general surgeons in the United States.

PubMed

Escarce, J J; Bloom, B S; Hillman, A L; Shea, J A; Schwartz, J S

1995-03-01

Introduced in 1989, laparoscopic cholecystectomy has rapidly become the treatment of choice for symptomatic gallstones. This study describes the diffusion of laparoscopic cholecystectomy among general surgeons; assesses the importance of various reasons for surgeons adopting the procedure; and examine the influence of surgeon, practice, and health care market characteristics on the timing of adoption. The data were obtained from a survey of a national sample of surgeons. Most surgeons (81%) adopted laparoscopic cholecystectomy by early 1992. More than three fourths of adopters identified the desire to keep up with the state-of-the-art and improved patient outcomes as very or extremely important reasons for adoption. Results of proportional hazards regression analysis indicate that individual surgeons' adoption behavior generally was consistent with expected utility maximization in an uncertain new technological environment. Of particular interest, fee-for-service payment and more competitive practice settings and markets were associated with earlier adoption. These findings suggest that the "technological imperative" and surgeons' perception of the relative clinical and financial advantages of laparoscopic cholecystectomy were important reasons for the rapid diffusion of laparoscopic cholecystectomy. Policies that accelerate current trends toward payment of physicians based on salary or capitation and promote the growth of multispecialty group practice could slow the diffusion of new physician-based product innovations in health care.

Crisis and Change: The Making of a French FDA.

PubMed

Nathanson, Constance A; Bergeron, Henri

2017-09-01

Policy Points: Introducing a recent special issue of The Lancet on the health system in France, Horton and Ceschia observe that "the dominance of English as the language of science and, increasingly, global health too often closes the door on the history and experiences of others." 1 In that spirit, this manuscript presents a detailed case study of public health policy transformation in France in the early 1990s. It casts light on processes of policy change in a political and cultural environment very different from that of the United States, showing how the public health policy process is shaped by multiple contingencies of history, ideology, and politics. More specifically, we describe the transformation of a disease catastrophe into a political crisis and the deployment of that crisis to precipitate reform of the French public health system. Until the last decade of the 20th century, France had no equivalent to the US Food and Drug Administration. In this paper we describe and interpret the complex series of events that led to the passage by the French Parliament in December 1992 of a law incorporating such an agency, the Agence du Médicament (literally, "medicines agency"). The broad aim of this project was to learn how public health policy change comes about by detailed analysis of a specific instance. More specifically, we aimed to better understand the circumstances under which public health crisis leads to significant public health policy reform. This paper is based on detailed analysis of primary documents (eg, archived French health ministry papers, recorded parliamentary debates, government reports, newspaper articles) and oral history interviews covering a period from 1988 to 1993. Thematic analysis of these materials was initially grounded in theories of organizational change, moving to constructs that emerged from the data themselves. Policy entrepreneurs positioned to frame adverse events and seize opportunities are key to public health policy reform. However, whether these entrepreneurs will have the requisite institutional power is contingent both on political structure and on the power of competing institutional actors. Health crises may catalyze institutional reform, but our analysis suggests that whether reform occurs, or even whether adverse episodes are labeled as crises, is highly contingent on circumstances of history, political structure, and political ideology and is extremely difficult to predict or control. Actors positioned to shape public health policy need to have a detailed understanding of the circumstances that facilitate or impede policy reform. Health crises are now more often global than not. Comparative, theoretically grounded, cross-national research that looks in detail at how different countries respond to similar health crises would be extremely valuable in informing both policymakers and researchers. © 2017 Milbank Memorial Fund.

Rethinking antibiotic research and development: World War II and the penicillin collaborative.

PubMed

Quinn, Roswell

2013-03-01

Policy leaders and public health experts may be overlooking effective ways to stimulate innovative antibiotic research and development. I analyzed archival resources concerning the US government's efforts to produce penicillin during World War II, which demonstrate how much science policy can differ from present approaches. By contrast to current attempts to invigorate commercial participation in antibiotic development, the effort to develop the first commercially produced antibiotic did not rely on economic enticements or the further privatization of scientific resources. Rather, this extremely successful scientific and, ultimately, commercial endeavor was rooted in government stewardship, intraindustry cooperation, and the open exchange of scientific information. For policymakers facing the problem of stimulating antibiotic research and development, the origins of the antibiotic era offer a template for effective policy solutions that concentrate primarily on scientific rather than commercial goals.

Rethinking Antibiotic Research and Development: World War II and the Penicillin Collaborative

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Policy leaders and public health experts may be overlooking effective ways to stimulate innovative antibiotic research and development. I analyzed archival resources concerning the US government’s efforts to produce penicillin during World War II, which demonstrate how much science policy can differ from present approaches. By contrast to current attempts to invigorate commercial participation in antibiotic development, the effort to develop the first commercially produced antibiotic did not rely on economic enticements or the further privatization of scientific resources. Rather, this extremely successful scientific and, ultimately, commercial endeavor was rooted in government stewardship, intraindustry cooperation, and the open exchange of scientific information. For policymakers facing the problem of stimulating antibiotic research and development, the origins of the antibiotic era offer a template for effective policy solutions that concentrate primarily on scientific rather than commercial goals. PMID:22698031

Climate Resiliency Planning: Making Extreme Event Science Useful for Managers and Planners in Northern Nevada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCarthy, M.; Kenneston, A.; Wall, T. U.; Brown, T. J.; Redmond, K. T.

2014-12-01

Effective climate resiliency planning at the regional level requires extensive interactive dialogue among climate scientists, emergency managers, public health officials, urban planners, social scientists, and policy makers. Engaging federal, tribal, state, local governments and private sector business and infrastructure owners/operators in defining, assessing and characterizing the impacts of extreme events allows communities to understand how different events "break the system" forcing local communities to seek support and resources from state/federal governments and/or the private sector and what actions can be taken proactively to mitigate consequences and accelerate recovery. The Washoe County Regional Resiliency Study was prepared in response to potential climate variability related impacts specific to the Northern Nevada Region. The last several decades have seen dramatic growth in the region, coupled with increased resource demands that have forced local governments to consider how those impacts will affect the region and may, in turn, impact the region's ability to provide essential services. The Western Regional Climate Center of the Desert Research Institute provided a synthesis of climate studies with predictions regarding plausible changes in the local climate of Northern California and Nevada for the next 50 years. In general, these predictions indicate that the region's climate is undergoing a gradual shift, which will primarily affect the frequency, amount, and form of precipitation in the Sierra Nevada and Great Basin. Changes in water availability and other extreme events may have serious and long lasting effects in the Northern Nevada Region, and create a variety of social, environmental and economic concerns. A range of extreme events were considered including Adverse Air Quality, Droughts, Floods, Heat Waves, High Wind, Structure Fires, Wildland Fires, and Major Winter Storms. Due to the complexity of our climate systems, and the difficulty in specifying how severe the climate effects may be or how those impacts compound existing hazards in the system, the Resiliency Study focused on identifying a variety of 'no regrets' policy options that can help the local communities anticipate, respond and recover faster and more efficiently to climate extremes.

The role of the Sheffield model on the minimum unit pricing of alcohol debate: the importance of a rhetorical perspective.

PubMed

Katikireddi, Srinivasa Vittal; Hilton, Shona; Bond, Lyndal

2016-11-01

The minimum unit pricing (MUP) alcohol policy debate has been informed by the Sheffield model, a study which predicts impacts of different alcohol pricing policies. This paper explores the Sheffield model's influences on the policy debate by drawing on 36 semi-structured interviews with policy actors who were involved in the policy debate. Although commissioned by policy makers, the model's influence has been far broader than suggested by views of 'rational' policy making. While findings from the Sheffield model have been used in instrumental ways, they have arguably been more important in helping debate competing values underpinning policy goals.

Representations of women and drug use in policy: A critical policy analysis.

PubMed

Thomas, Natalie; Bull, Melissa

2018-06-01

Contemporary research in the drugs field has demonstrated a number of gender differences in patterns and experiences of substance use, and the design and provision of gender-responsive interventions has been identified as an important policy issue. Consequently, whether and how domestic drug policies attend to women and gender issues is an important question for investigation. This article presents a policy audit and critical analysis of Australian national and state and territory policy documents. It identifies and discusses two key styles of problematisation of women's drug use in policy: 1) drug use and its effect on women's reproductive role (including a focus on pregnant women and women who are mothers), and 2) drug use and its relationship to women's vulnerability to harm (including violent and sexual victimisation, trauma, and mental health issues). Whilst these are important areas for policy to address, we argue that such representations of women who use drugs tend to reinforce particular understandings of women and drug use, while at the same time contributing to areas of 'policy silence' or neglect. In particular, the policy documents analysed are largely silent about the harm reduction needs of all women, as well as the needs of women who are not mothers, young women, older women, transwomen or other women deemed to be outside of dominant normative reproductive discourse. This analysis is important because understanding how women's drug use is problematised and identifying areas of policy silence provides a foundation for redressing gaps in policy, and for assessing the likely effectiveness of current and future policy approaches. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Analysis of the dependence of extreme rainfalls

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Padoan, Simone; Ancey, Christophe; Parlange, Marc

2010-05-01

The aim of spatial analysis is to quantitatively describe the behavior of environmental phenomena such as precipitation levels, wind speed or daily temperatures. A number of generic approaches to spatial modeling have been developed[1], but these are not necessarily ideal for handling extremal aspects given their focus on mean process levels. The areal modelling of the extremes of a natural process observed at points in space is important in environmental statistics; for example, understanding extremal spatial rainfall is crucial in flood protection. In light of recent concerns over climate change, the use of robust mathematical and statistical methods for such analyses has grown in importance. Multivariate extreme value models and the class of maxstable processes [2] have a similar asymptotic motivation to the univariate Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution , but providing a general approach to modeling extreme processes incorporating temporal or spatial dependence. Statistical methods for max-stable processes and data analyses of practical problems are discussed by [3] and [4]. This work illustrates methods to the statistical modelling of spatial extremes and gives examples of their use by means of a real extremal data analysis of Switzerland precipitation levels. [1] Cressie, N. A. C. (1993). Statistics for Spatial Data. Wiley, New York. [2] de Haan, L and Ferreria A. (2006). Extreme Value Theory An Introduction. Springer, USA. [3] Padoan, S. A., Ribatet, M and Sisson, S. A. (2009). Likelihood-Based Inference for Max-Stable Processes. Journal of the American Statistical Association, Theory & Methods. In press. [4] Davison, A. C. and Gholamrezaee, M. (2009), Geostatistics of extremes. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B. To appear.

Extremely cold and hot temperatures increase the risk of ischaemic heart disease mortality: epidemiological evidence from China.

PubMed

Guo, Yuming; Li, Shanshan; Zhang, Yanshen; Armstrong, Ben; Jaakkola, Jouni J K; Tong, Shilu; Pan, Xiaochuan

2013-02-01

To examine the effects of extremely cold and hot temperatures on ischaemic heart disease (IHD) mortality in five cities (Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, Wuhan and Guangzhou) in China; and to examine the time relationships between cold and hot temperatures and IHD mortality for each city. A negative binomial regression model combined with a distributed lag non-linear model was used to examine city-specific temperature effects on IHD mortality up to 20 lag days. A meta-analysis was used to pool the cold effects and hot effects across the five cities. 16 559 IHD deaths were monitored by a sentinel surveillance system in five cities during 2004-2008. The relationships between temperature and IHD mortality were non-linear in all five cities. The minimum-mortality temperatures in northern cities were lower than in southern cities. In Beijing, Tianjin and Guangzhou, the effects of extremely cold temperatures were delayed, while Shanghai and Wuhan had immediate cold effects. The effects of extremely hot temperatures appeared immediately in all the cities except Wuhan. Meta-analysis showed that IHD mortality increased 48% at the 1st percentile of temperature (extremely cold temperature) compared with the 10th percentile, while IHD mortality increased 18% at the 99th percentile of temperature (extremely hot temperature) compared with the 90th percentile. Results indicate that both extremely cold and hot temperatures increase IHD mortality in China. Each city has its characteristics of heat effects on IHD mortality. The policy for response to climate change should consider local climate-IHD mortality relationships.

Policy in Conflict: The Struggle Between Environmental Policy and Homeland Security Goals

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-09-01

security by reducing consumption in the most important petroleum consuming sector, that of automobile transportation. Some U.S. oil dollars may be...sustainable energy security by reducing consumption in the most important petroleum consuming sector, that of automobile transportation. Some U.S...39  A.  POLICY CHOICES............................................................................. 39  B.  WHY IS THIS PROBLEM IMPORTANT

Climate change: challenges and opportunities for global health.

PubMed

Patz, Jonathan A; Frumkin, Howard; Holloway, Tracey; Vimont, Daniel J; Haines, Andrew

2014-10-15

Health is inextricably linked to climate change. It is important for clinicians to understand this relationship in order to discuss associated health risks with their patients and to inform public policy. To provide new US-based temperature projections from downscaled climate modeling and to review recent studies on health risks related to climate change and the cobenefits of efforts to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions. We searched PubMed and Google Scholar from 2009 to 2014 for articles related to climate change and health, focused on governmental reports, predictive models, and empirical epidemiological studies. Of the more than 250 abstracts reviewed, 56 articles were selected. In addition, we analyzed climate data averaged over 13 climate models and based future projections on downscaled probability distributions of the daily maximum temperature for 2046-2065. We also compared maximum daily 8-hour average ozone with air temperature data taken from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Climate Data Center. By 2050, many US cities may experience more frequent extreme heat days. For example, New York and Milwaukee may have 3 times their current average number of days hotter than 32°C (90°F). High temperatures are also strongly associated with ozone exceedance days, for example, in Chicago, Illinois. The adverse health aspects related to climate change may include heat-related disorders, such as heat stress and economic consequences of reduced work capacity; respiratory disorders, including those exacerbated by air pollution and aeroallergens, such as asthma; infectious diseases, including vectorborne diseases and waterborne diseases, such as childhood gastrointestinal diseases; food insecurity, including reduced crop yields and an increase in plant diseases; and mental health disorders, such as posttraumatic stress disorder and depression, that are associated with natural disasters. Substantial health and economic cobenefits could be associated with reductions in fossil fuel combustion. For example, greenhouse gas emission policies may yield net economic benefit, with health benefits from air quality improvements potentially offsetting the cost of US and international carbon policies. Evidence over the past 20 years indicates that climate change can be associated with adverse health outcomes. Health care professionals have an important role in understanding and communicating the related potential health concerns and the cobenefits from policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

[How to establish the hospital information system security policies].

PubMed

Gong, Qing-Yue; Shi, Cheng

2008-03-01

It is important to establish the hospital information system security policies. While these security policies are being established, a comprehensive consideration should be given to the acceptable levels of users, IT supporters and hospital managers. We should have a formal policy designing process that is consistently followed by all security policies. Reasons for establishing the security policies and their coverage and applicable objects should be stated clearly. Besides, each policy should define user's responsibilities and penalties of violation. Every organization will need some key policies, such as of information sources usage, remote access, information protection, perimeter security, and baseline host/device security. Security managing procedures are the mechanisms to enforce the policies. An incident-handling procedure is the most important security managing procedure for all organizations.

Characterizing the "Time of Emergence" of Air Quality Climate Penalties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rothenberg, D. A.; Garcia-Menendez, F.; Monier, E.; Solomon, S.; Selin, N. E.

2017-12-01

By driving not only local changes in temperature, but also precipitation and regional-scale changes in seasonal circulation patterns, climate change can directly and indirectly influence changes in air quality and its extremes. These changes - often referred to as "climate penalties" - can have important implications for human health, which is often targeted when assessing the potential co-benefits of climate policy. But because climate penalties are driven by slow, spatially-varying, temporal changes in the climate system, their emergence in the real world should also have a spatio-temporal component following regional variability in background air quality. In this work, we attempt to estimate the spatially-varying "time of emergence" of climate penalty signals by using an ensemble modeling framework based on the MIT Integrated Global System Model (MIT IGSM). With this framework we assess three climate policy scenarios assuming three different underlying climate sensitivities, and conduct a 5-member ensemble for each case to capture internal variability within the model. These simulations are used to drive offline chemical transport modeling (using CAM-Chem and GEOS-Chem). In these simulations, we find that the air quality response to climate change can vary dramatically across different regions of the globe. To analyze these regionally-varying climate signals, we employ a hierarchical clustering technique to identify regions with similar seasonal patterns of air quality change. Our simulations suggest that the earliest emergence of ozone climate penalties would occur in Southern Europe (by 2035), should the world neglect climate change and rely on a "business-as-usual" emissions policy. However, even modest climate policy dramatically pushes back the time of emergence of these penalties - to beyond 2100 - across most of the globe. The emergence of climate-forced changes in PM2.5 are much more difficult to detect, partially owing to the large role that changes in the frequency and spatial distribution of precipitation play in limiting the accumulation and duration of particulate pollution episodes.

The role of the Sheffield model on the minimum unit pricing of alcohol debate: the importance of a rhetorical perspective

PubMed Central

Katikireddi, Srinivasa Vittal; Hilton, Shona; Bond, Lyndal

2017-01-01

The minimum unit pricing (MUP) alcohol policy debate has been informed by the Sheffield model, a study which predicts impacts of different alcohol pricing policies. This paper explores the Sheffield model’s influences on the policy debate by drawing on 36 semi-structured interviews with policy actors who were involved in the policy debate. Although commissioned by policy makers, the model’s influence has been far broader than suggested by views of ‘rational’ policy making. While findings from the Sheffield model have been used in instrumental ways, they have arguably been more important in helping debate competing values underpinning policy goals. PMID:28111593

Forest service large fire area burned and suppression expenditure trends, 1970-2002.

Treesearch

David E. Calkin; Krista M. Gebert; J. Greg Jones; Ronald P. Neilson

2005-01-01

Extreme fire seasons in recent years and associated high suppression expenditures have brought about a chorus of calls for reform of federal firefighting structure and policy. Given the political nature of the topic, a critical review of past trends in area burned, size of fires, and suppression expenditures is warranted. We examined data relating to emergency wildland...

Designing economic impact assessments for USFS wildfire programs

Treesearch

Karen L. Abt; Robert J. Jr. Huggett; Thomas P. Holmes

2008-01-01

As often happens in the wake of a series of extreme fire seasons, such as those in 2000, 2002 and 2003, federal wildfire policy is being scrutinized and recommendations regarding changes both large and small are prevalent (Stephens and Ruth 2005, Busenberg 2004, Dellasalla et al. 2004, Dombeck et al. 2004). It is common practice for increases in acres burned and in...

Implications of Economic, Social, and Educational Developments in Rural America for Rural School Systems.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stephens, E. Robert

Great changes are occurring in the vast and extremely diverse nonmetropolitan regions of the United States as a result of economic and social shifts taking place. These are not the only issues facing state and local education policy and planning communities. Nationwide focus on the school reform and school excellence movement poses another serious…

Heavy Drinking on College Campuses: No Reason to Change Minimum Legal Drinking Age of 21

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Saylor, Drew K.

2011-01-01

The recent Amethyst Initiative argues that a minimum legal drinking age (MLDA) of 21 has created a culture of heavy alcohol use on college campuses by making drinking clandestine and extreme. This group and others argue that lowering the MLDA will reduce the problem of "binge drinking" on college campuses. However, such a policy change would…

Toxic Stress: Implications for Policy & Practice. An Interview with Developmental Psychologist Megan R. Gunnar

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gunnar, Megan R.

2006-01-01

A growing body of science shows the critical effects of an extreme and sustained stressful environment for children on their developing brain architecture and the expression of genes in later life. Toxic stress can shift the brain into surviving in a way that's more rigid and less adaptive. For example, as a result of biologically altered brain…

Trafficking in persons: a health concern?

PubMed

Zimmerman, Cathy; Kiss, Ligia; Houssain, Mazeda; Watts, Charlotte

2009-01-01

Human trafficking is a phenomenon that has now been documented in most regions in the world. Although trafficking of women and girls for sexual exploitation is the most commonly recognised form of trafficking, it is widely acknowledged that human trafficking also involves men, women and children who are trafficked for various forms of labour exploitation and into other abusive circumstances. Despite the violence and harm inherent in most trafficking situations, there remains extremely little evidence on the individual and public health implications of any form of human trafficking. The Brazilian government has recently launched a national plan to combat human trafficking. However, because the health risks associated with human trafficking have not been well-recognised or documented, there is extremely limited reliable data on the health needs of trafficked persons to inform policy and practices.. Brazilian policy-makers and service providers should be encouraged to learn about the likely range of health impacts of trafficking, and incorporate this into anti-trafficking protection and response strategies. As well as prevention activities, the government, international and local organisations should work together with the public health research community to study the health needs of trafficked persons and explore opportunities to provide safe and appropriate services to victims in need of care.

Federal employees health program experiences lack of competition in some areas, raising cost concerns for exchange plans.

PubMed

McBride, Timothy D; Barker, Abigail R; Pollack, Lisa M; Kemper, Leah M; Mueller, Keith J

2012-06-01

The Affordable Care Act calls for creation of health insurance exchanges designed to provide private health insurance plan choices. The Federal Employees Health Benefits Program is a national model that to some extent resembles the planned exchanges. Both offer plans at the state level but are also overseen by the federal government. We examined the availability of plans and enrollment levels in the Federal Employees Health Benefits Program throughout the United States in 2010. We found that although plans were widely available, enrollment was concentrated in plans owned by just a few organizations, typically Blue Cross/Blue Shield plans. Enrollment was more concentrated in rural areas, which may reflect historical patterns of enrollment or lack of provider networks. Average biweekly premiums for an individual were lowest ($58.48) in counties where competition was extremely high, rising to $65.13 where competition was extremely low. To make certain that coverage sold through exchanges is affordable, policy makers may need to pay attention to areas where there is little plan competition and take steps through risk-adjustment policies or other measures to narrow differences in premiums and out-of-pocket expenses for consumers.

Opportunities and constraints for improved water resources management under increasing hydrological extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wada, Y.

2017-12-01

Increased occurrence of extreme climate events is one of the most damaging consequences of global climate change today and in the future. Estimating the impacts of such extreme events on global and regional water resources is therefore crucial for quantifying increasing risks from climate change. The quest for water security has been a struggle throughout human history. Only in recent years has the scale of this quest moved beyond the local, to the national and regional scales and to the planet itself. Absent or unreliable water supply, sanitation and irrigation services, unmitigated floods and droughts, and degraded water environments severely impact half of the planet's population. The scale and complexity of the water challenges faced by society, particularly but not only in the world's poorest regions, are now recognized, as is the imperative of overcoming these challenges for a stable and equitable world. IIASA's Water Futures and Solutions Initiative (WFAS) is an unprecedented inter-disciplinary scientific initiative to identify robust and adaptive portfolios of optional solutions across different economic sectors, including agriculture, energy and industry, and to test these solution-portfolios with multi-model ensembles of hydrologic and sector models to obtain a clearer picture of the trade-offs, risks, and opportunities. The results of WFaS scenarios and models provide a basis for long-term strategic planning of water resource development under changing environments and increasing climate extremes. And given the complexity of the water system, WFaS uniquely provides policy makers with optional sets of solutions that work together and that can be easily adapted as circumstances change in the future. As WFaS progresses, it will establish a network involving information exchange, mutual learning and horizontal cooperation across teams of researchers, public and private decision makers and practitioners exploring solutions at regional, national and local scales. The initiative includes a major stakeholder consultation component, to inform and guide the science and to test and refine policy and business outcome.

MERINOVA: Meteorological risks as drivers of environmental innovation in agro-ecosystem management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gobin, Anne; Oger, Robert; Marlier, Catherine; Van De Vijver, Hans; Vandermeulen, Valerie; Van Huylenbroeck, Guido; Zamani, Sepideh; Curnel, Yannick; Mettepenningen, Evi

2013-04-01

The BELSPO funded project 'MERINOVA' deals with risks associated with extreme weather phenomena and with risks of biological origin such as pests and diseases. The major objectives of the proposed project are to characterise extreme meteorological events, assess the impact on Belgian agro-ecosystems, characterise their vulnerability and resilience to these events, and explore innovative adaptation options to agricultural risk management. The project comprises of five major parts that reflect the chain of risks: (i) Hazard: Assessing the likely frequency and magnitude of extreme meteorological events by means of probability density functions; (ii) Impact: Analysing the potential bio-physical and socio-economic impact of extreme weather events on agro-ecosystems in Belgium using process-based modelling techniques commensurate with the regional scale; (iii) Vulnerability: Identifying the most vulnerable agro-ecosystems using fuzzy multi-criteria and spatial analysis; (iv) Risk Management: Uncovering innovative risk management and adaptation options using actor-network theory and fuzzy cognitive mapping techniques; and, (v) Communication: Communicating to research, policy and practitioner communities using web-based techniques. The different tasks of the MERINOVA project require expertise in several scientific disciplines: meteorology, statistics, spatial database management, agronomy, bio-physical impact modelling, socio-economic modelling, actor-network theory, fuzzy cognitive mapping techniques. These expertises are shared by the four scientific partners who each lead one work package. The MERINOVA project will concentrate on promoting a robust and flexible framework by demonstrating its performance across Belgian agro-ecosystems, and by ensuring its relevance to policy makers and practitioners. Impacts developed from physically based models will not only provide information on the state of the damage at any given time, but also assist in understanding the links between different factors causing damage and determining bio-physical vulnerability. Socio-economic impacts will enlarge the basis for vulnerability mapping, risk management and adaptation options. A strong expert and end-user network will be established to help disseminating and exploiting project results to meet user needs.

Modelling Tradeoffs Evolution in Multipurpose Water Systems Operation in Response to Extreme Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mason, E.; Gazzotti, P.; Amigoni, F.; Giuliani, M.; Castelletti, A.

2015-12-01

Multipurpose water resource systems are usually operated on a tradeoff of the operating objectives, which - under steady state climatic and socio-economic boundary conditions - is supposed to ensure a fair and/or efficient balance among the conflicting interests. Extreme variability in the system's drivers might affect operators' risk aversion and force a change in the tradeoff. Properly accounting for these shifts is key to any rigorous retrospective assessment of operators' behavior and the associated system's performance. In this study, we explore how the selection of different optimal tradeoffs among the operating objectives is linked to the variations of the boundary conditions, such as, for example, drifting rainfall season or remarkable changes in crop and energy prices. We argue that tradeoff selection is driven by recent, extreme variations in system performance: underperforming on one of the operating objective target value should push the tradeoff toward the disadvantaged objective. To test this assumption, we developed a rational procedure to simulate the operators' tradeoff selection process. We map the selection onto a multi lateral negotiation process, where different multiple, virtual agents optimize different operating objectives. The agents periodically negotiate a compromise on the operating policy. The agent's rigidity in each negotiation round is determined by the recent system performances according to the specific objective it represents. The negotiation follows a set-based egocentric monotonic concession protocol: at each negotiation step an agent incrementally adds some options to the set of its acceptable compromises and (possibly) accepts lower and lower satisfying policies until an agreement is achieved. We apply this reiterated negotiation framework on the regulated Lake Como, Italy, simulating the lake dam operation and its recurrent updates over the last 50 years. The operation aims to balance shoreline flood prevention and irrigation deficit control in the downstream irrigated areas. The results of our simulated negotiations are able to accurately capture the operator's risk aversion changes as driven by extreme wet and dry situations, and to well reproduce the observational release data.

Application of RFID technology-upper extremity rehabilitation training.

PubMed

Chen, Chih-Chen; Chen, Yu-Luen; Chen, Shih-Ching

2016-01-01

[Purpose] Upper extremity rehabilitation after an injury is very important. This study proposes radio frequency identification (RFID) technology to improve and enhance the effectiveness of the upper extremity rehabilitation. [Subjects and Methods] People use their upper extremities to conduct daily activities. When recovering from injuries, many patients neglect the importance of rehabilitation, which results in degraded function. This study recorded the training process using the traditional rehabilitation hand gliding cart with a RFID reader, RFID tags in the panel, and a servo host computer. [Results] Clinical evidence, time taken to achieve a full score, counts of missing the specified spots, and Brunnstrom stage of aided recovery, the proximal part of the upper extremity show that the RFID-based upper extremity training significantly and reduce negative impacts of the disability in daily life and activities. [Conclusion] This study combined a hand-gliding cart with an RFID reader, and when patients moved the cart, the movement could be observed via the activated RFID tags. The training data was collected and quantified for a better understanding of the recovery status of the patients. Each of the participating patients made progress as expected.

Climatic extremes improve predictions of spatial patterns of tree species

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zimmermann, N.E.; Yoccoz, N.G.; Edwards, T.C.; Meier, E.S.; Thuiller, W.; Guisan, Antoine; Schmatz, D.R.; Pearman, P.B.

2009-01-01

Understanding niche evolution, dynamics, and the response of species to climate change requires knowledge of the determinants of the environmental niche and species range limits. Mean values of climatic variables are often used in such analyses. In contrast, the increasing frequency of climate extremes suggests the importance of understanding their additional influence on range limits. Here, we assess how measures representing climate extremes (i.e., interannual variability in climate parameters) explain and predict spatial patterns of 11 tree species in Switzerland. We find clear, although comparably small, improvement (+20% in adjusted D2, +8% and +3% in cross-validated True Skill Statistic and area under the receiver operating characteristics curve values) in models that use measures of extremes in addition to means. The primary effect of including information on climate extremes is a correction of local overprediction and underprediction. Our results demonstrate that measures of climate extremes are important for understanding the climatic limits of tree species and assessing species niche characteristics. The inclusion of climate variability likely will improve models of species range limits under future conditions, where changes in mean climate and increased variability are expected.

Contributions of Dynamic and Thermodynamic Scaling in Subdaily Precipitation Extremes in India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ali, Haider; Mishra, Vimal

2018-03-01

Despite the importance of subdaily precipitation extremes for urban areas, the role of dynamic and thermodynamic scaling in changes in precipitation extremes in India remains poorly constrained. Here we estimate contributions from thermodynamic and dynamic scaling on changes in subdaily precipitation extremes for 23 urban locations in India. Subdaily precipitation extremes have become more intense during the last few decades. Moreover, we find a twofold rise in the frequency of subdaily precipitation extremes during 1979-2015, which is faster than the increase in daily precipitation extremes. The contribution of dynamic scaling in this rise in the frequency and intensity of subdaily precipitation extremes is higher than the thermodynamic scaling. Moreover, half-hourly precipitation extremes show higher contributions from the both thermodynamic ( 10%/K) and dynamic ( 15%/K) scaling than daily (6%/K and 9%/K, respectively) extremes indicating the role of warming on the rise in the subdaily precipitation extremes in India. Our findings have implications for better understanding the dynamic response of precipitation extremes under the warming climate over India.

Hospital marketing: characterization of marketing actions in private hospitals in the city of São Paulo - Brazil.

PubMed

Leiderman, Eduardo Blay; Padovan, Jorge Luis; Zucchi, Paola

2010-01-01

Characterize the marketing actions in private hospitals in the city of São Paulo, the organizational structure of the marketing area, the target public of marketing actions and the media used. Exploratory cross-sectional study, carried out by a survey made with hospital administrators. The hospitals studied were clearly divided in two groups whose differentials are statistically significant: 1. good infrastructure and equipment, with a well-defined investment policy in marketing; 2. worse infrastructure and less equipment, with lower proportional investment in marketing. 1. The actions most used are the evaluation of patients/caregivers satisfaction, web site and dissemination of the hospital services. 2. The hospital administrators attribute a level of significant importance to the application of hospital marketing concepts. 3. There is a marketing structure in most of the hospitals studied. 4. The hospitals consider as extremely or very important publics: patients and relatives, doctors, collaborators, health plans and community. 5. The media most used are the most simple and of lower cost. 6. There is a statistically significant correlation between the higher investment in marketing and the best infrastructure. 7. The studied hospitals apply the concept of marketing in a restricted way.

Essays on Environmental Economics and Policy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walker, W. Reed

A central feature of modern government is its role in designing welfare improving policies to address and correct market failures stemming from externalities and public goods. The rationale for most modern environmental regulations stems from the failure of markets to efficiently allocate goods and services. Yet, as with any policy, distributional effects are important there exist clear winners and losers. Despite the clear theoretical justification for environmental and energy policy, empirical work credibly identifying both the source and consequences of these externalities as well as the distributional effects of existing policies remains in its infancy. My dissertation focuses on the development of empirical methods to investigate the role of environmental and energy policy in addressing market failures as well as exploring the distributional implications of these policies. These questions are important not only as a justification for government intervention into markets but also for understanding how distributional consequences may shape the design and implementation of these policies. My dissertation investigates these questions in the context of programs and policies that are important in their own right. Chapters 1 and 2 of my dissertation explore the economic costs and distributional implications associated with the largest environmental regulatory program in the United States, the Clean Air Act. Chapters 3 and 4 examine the social costs of air pollution in the context of transportation externalities, showing how effective transportation policy has additional co-benefits in the form of environmental policy. My dissertation remains unified in both its subject matter and methodological approach -- using unique sources of data and sound research designs to understand important issues in environmental policy.

Evidences of Significant Nonstationarity in Precipitation Extremes over Urbanizing Areas in India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, J.; H, V.; Karmakar, S.; Ghosh, S.

2014-12-01

The statistical assumption of stationarity in hydrologic extreme time/event series has been relied heavily in frequency analysis. However, due to the analytically perceivable impacts of climate change, urbanization and concomitant land use pattern, assumption of stationarity in hydrologic time series will draw erroneous results, which inturn effects the policy and decision-making. Past studies provided sufficient evidences on changes in the characteristics of Indian monsoon rainfall extremes and further it has been attributed to climate change and urbanization, which indicates the presence of significant nonstationary in the Indian monsoon extremes. Therefore, a comprehensive nonstationary frequency analysis must be conducted all over India to obtain realistic return periods. The present study aims to conduct a nonstationary frequency analysis of the precipitation extremes over India at 1o resolution for a period of 1901-2004, with the implementation of the Generalized Additive Model for Location, Scale and Shape (GAMLSS) parameters. A cluster of 74 GAMLSS models has been developed by considering nonstationary in different combinations of distribution parameters and regression techniques (families of parametric polynomials and nonparametric/smoothing cubic spline), which overcomes the limitations of the previous studies. Further, for identification of urban, urbanizing and rural grids, an population density data has been utilized. The results showed the significant differences in the stationary and nonstationary return periods for the urbanizing grids, when compared to urbanized and rural grids. The results give implications of presence of nonstationary in the precipitation extremes more prominently in urbanizing areas compare to urbanized and rural areas.

Raising Awareness on Heat Related Mortality in Bangladesh

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arrighi, J.; Burkart, K.; Nissan, H.

2017-12-01

Extreme heat is the leading cause of weather-related deaths in the United States and Europe, and was responsible for four of the ten deadliest natural disasters worldwide in 2015. Near the tropics, where hot weather is considered the norm, perceived heat risk is often low, but recent heat waves in South Asia have caught the attention of the health community, policy-makers and the public. In a recent collaboration between the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre, Columbia University and BBC Media Action the effects of extreme heat in Bangladesh were analyzed and the findings were subsequently used as a basis to raise awareness about the impacts of extreme heat on the most vulnerable, to the general public. Analysis of excess heat in Bangladesh between 2003 and 2007 showed that heatwaves occur between April and June with most extreme heat events occurring in May. Between 2003 and 2007 it is estimated that an average of 1500 people died per year due to heatwaves lasting three days or longer, with an eight-day heatwave in 2005 resulting in a minimum of 3,800 excess deaths. Utilizing these findings BBC Media Action launched an online communications campaign in May 2017 ultimately reaching approximately 3.9 million people with information on reducing the impacts of extreme heat. This presentation will highlight key findings from the study of heat related mortality in Bangladesh as well as highlight the benefit of collaboration between scientists and communicators for increasing awareness about the effects of extreme heat on the most vulnerable.

Black swans, power laws, and dragon-kings: Earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, landslides, wildfires, floods, and SOC models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sachs, M. K.; Yoder, M. R.; Turcotte, D. L.; Rundle, J. B.; Malamud, B. D.

2012-05-01

Extreme events that change global society have been characterized as black swans. The frequency-size distributions of many natural phenomena are often well approximated by power-law (fractal) distributions. An important question is whether the probability of extreme events can be estimated by extrapolating the power-law distributions. Events that exceed these extrapolations have been characterized as dragon-kings. In this paper we consider extreme events for earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, wildfires, landslides and floods. We also consider the extreme event behavior of three models that exhibit self-organized criticality (SOC): the slider-block, forest-fire, and sand-pile models. Since extrapolations using power-laws are widely used in probabilistic hazard assessment, the occurrence of dragon-king events have important practical implications.

Do climate extreme events foster violent civil conflicts? A coincidence analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich; Donges, Jonathan F.; Donner, Reik V.

2014-05-01

Civil conflicts promoted by adverse environmental conditions represent one of the most important potential feedbacks in the global socio-environmental nexus. While the role of climate extremes as a triggering factor is often discussed, no consensus is yet reached about the cause-and-effect relation in the observed data record. Here we present results of a rigorous statistical coincidence analysis based on the Munich Re Inc. extreme events database and the Uppsala conflict data program. We report evidence for statistically significant synchronicity between climate extremes with high economic impact and violent conflicts for various regions, although no coherent global signal emerges from our analysis. Our results indicate the importance of regional vulnerability and might aid to identify hot-spot regions for potential climate-triggered violent social conflicts.

Changes in federal agencies panel: human dimensions research and ecosystem management: policy and research implications for recreation research efforts

Treesearch

Alan Ewert

1995-01-01

With an increased emphasis being placed on ecosystem management, the importance of Human Dimension Research (HDR) efforts in management and policy formulation are becoming more important. Developing an understanding of the type of management questions and policy needs that can be addressed by human dimension research is becoming increasingly important and timely. This...

Development, implementation and outcome of standards to restrict fatty meat in the food supply and prevent NCDs: learning from an innovative trade/food policy in Ghana

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Diet-related noncommunicable diseases represent a major global public health challenge, and require a multisectoral policy response. However, the use of trade policy in this context has met with varied success in the face of strong global trade liberalization agendas. The Government of Ghana has implemented an innovative food standards policy to limit the amount of fat in meat and meat cuts, in response to rising imports of low quality fatty meat cuts. This paper presents an analysis of the policy process and outcomes, as well as contextual factors in policy development, to enable policy learning in other jurisdictions. Methods We conducted 28 semi-structured policy analysis interviews with 37 stakeholders at the national and regional level in Ghana, and collated relevant documents. We analysed the data using the health policy analysis triangle and policy theories related to lesson drawing. Results The standards were developed in response to health concerns related to fatty meat (particularly turkey tails), in a context of rising meat imports and a generalised concern about the low quality and high fat content of imported meats. The standards were the result of collaboration between the trade and health sectors. The standards apply to both imported and domestic meat, and were designed to be compliant with Ghana’s multilateral trade commitments. The overall effect of the ban has been to reduce availability of specific ‘low quality’ high-fat meats in the Ghanaian food supply, namely turkey tails and chicken feet. Conclusions This study indicates that the use of standards can reduce availability of high-fat meat in a national food supply. The main strength of a standards approach to reducing fatty meat (mainly imported) in the food supply is compliance with global trade law, while the main challenge is effective enforcement. However, the Government of Ghana appears to have developed a functional and flexible application of the policy. Features of this policy approach useful for policy learning include: collaboration at every stage between ministries of trade and health; considerations relating to compliance with international trade law; strategic enforcement of the policy; and the importance of public awareness efforts. PMID:24625217

Water quality degradation effects on freshwater availability: Impacts to human activities

USGS Publications Warehouse

Peters, N.E.; Meybeck, Michel

2000-01-01

The quality of freshwater at any point on the landscape reflects the combined effects of many processes along water pathways. Human activities on all spatial scales affect both water quality and quantity. Alteration of the landscape and associated vegetation has not only changed the water balance, but typically has altered processes that control water quality. Effects of human activities on a small scale are relevant to an entire drainage basin. Furthermore, local, regional, and global differences in climate and water flow are considerable, causing varying effects of human activities on land and water quality and quantity, depending on location within a watershed, geology, biology, physiographic characteristics, and climate. These natural characteristics also greatly control human activities, which will, in turn, modify (or affect) the natural composition of water. One of the most important issues for effective resource management is recognition of cyclical and cascading effects of human activities on the water quality and quantity along hydrologic pathways. The degradation of water quality in one part of a watershed can have negative effects on users downstream. Everyone lives downstream of the effects of some human activity. An extremely important factor is that substances added to the atmosphere, land, and water generally have relatively long time scales for removal or clean up. The nature of the substance, including its affinity for adhering to soil and its ability to be transformed, affects the mobility and the time scale for removal of the substance. Policy alone will not solve many of the degradation issues, but a combination of policy, education, scientific knowledge, planning, and enforcement of applicable laws can provide mechanisms for slowing the rate of degradation and provide human and environmental protection. Such an integrated approach is needed to effectively manage land and water resources.

Database Development of Land Use Characteristics along Major U.S. Highways

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Xiong, D

2000-06-06

The major objective of the effort reported here is to develop methods to measure transportation land use at the national level (i.e., how much land and what types of lands are used by transportation systems) and to track changes over time. Data for transportation-related land use are important for environmental analysis, climate change studies, transportation-land use interaction research, policy decisions related to urban sprawl, and more. Transportation systems have direct effects on the environment through modification of vegetation, impacts on wildlife habitats, changes in local climate and alternation of drainage patterns (U.S. DOT/BTS, 1996; U.S. DOT/BTS, 1998; U.S. EPA, 1999;more » Maggi, 1994; Verhoef, 1994). However, without accurate and complete land use data, it is extremely difficult to study and evaluate these effects. Transportation systems also induce land use changes. Such indirect effects, while not the subject of this study, may be more significant than the direct land-use impacts of transportation infrastructure. Establishing an inventory of transportation infrastructure and adjacent land use and maintaining the inventory over time is an important first step towards understanding the full range of interactions between transportation and land use. While current and historic land use data are essential for investigating the relationships between transportation and land use, so far, no technological or institutional mechanisms have been established to systematically collect such data at the national level. The lack of long-term planning in land use data acquisition can be a major setback for future research in transportation land use studies. Land use data also play a key role in the understanding of problems related to urban sprawl and in policy decisions in dealing with these problems.« less

Posthumous Reproduction (PHR) in Israel: Policy Rationales Versus Lay People's Concerns, a Preliminary Study.

PubMed

Hashiloni-Dolev, Yael

2015-12-01

Israeli policy concerning PHR has been decided upon in an expertocratic manner, leaving the voice of the public unheard. Based on 26 semi-structured in-depth interviews with 13 Jewish-Israeli young couples, this preliminary study provides the first empirical data regarding lay attitudes toward PHR in Israel. Findings suggest major dissimilarities between the policy and lay people's wishes and rationales. While policy is built on the "presumed wish" assumption, supposing all men living in a loving relationship wish to have their partner carry their child post-mortem, this was empirically unsupported. However, the findings suggest that many interviewees were willing to defer to their surviving spouse's wishes to have their post-mortem child, sometimes even against their own wish, indicating a support for presumed consent. Respecting the wishes of the dead, a dominant argument in the bioethical discussion in Israel and beyond, was mainly irrelevant to informants, whereas interviewees considered the future child's welfare, a concern overlooked by Israeli policy. Likewise, while posthumous grandparenthood is on the rise in Israel, it clearly contradicts the wishes of the majority of this study's informants. Nonetheless, existing policy is not expected to raise any opposition, due to the extreme liberalism of the participants and their support of reproductive autonomy.

TANF policy: past, present, and future directions.

PubMed

Washington, Gregory; Sullivan, Michael; Washington, Edwina Thomas

2006-01-01

The purpose of this article is to offer a brief and concise history of relevant public welfare policies for a discussion of the effects of public welfare reform, and how it impacts families in ways not comprehensively understood. Social scientists' concerns about the potential for the families to be thrust into an "extreme poverty" status due to the forced workforce participation requirement and expiration of time limited benefits is discussed. A second concern regarding a "one size fits all" approach to work requirements for TANF recipients being unrealistic and insensitive is also discussed. The authors recommend a comprehensive multi-system analysis to determine the impact of welfare reform. There is also a recommendation that the workforce requirements should correlate to an assessment score based on the ability of welfare recipients to function in identified areas. Implications of maintaining a welfare reform policy status quo are identified.

Mapping human vulnerability to climate change in the Brazilian Amazon: The construction of a municipal vulnerability index

PubMed Central

Confalonieri, Ulisses; Madureira, Ana Paula; Duval, Isabela de Brito; dos Santos, Rhavena Barbosa; Margonari, Carina

2018-01-01

Vulnerability, understood as the propensity to be adversely affected, has attained importance in the context of climate change by helping to understand what makes populations and territories predisposed to its impacts. Conditions of vulnerability may vary depending on the characteristics of each territory studied—social, environmental, infrastructural, public policies, among others. Thus, the present study aimed to evaluate what makes the municipalities of the state of Amazonas, Brazil, vulnerable to climate change in the context of the largest tropical forest in the world, and which regions of the State are the most susceptible. A Municipal Vulnerability Index was developed, which was used to associate current socio-environmental characteristics of municipalities with climate change scenarios in order to identify those that may be most affected by climate change. The results showed that poor adaptive capacity and poverty had the most influence on current vulnerability of the municipalities of Amazonas with the most vulnerable areas being the southern, northern, and eastern regions of the state. When current vulnerability was related to future climate change projections, the most vulnerable areas were the northern, northeastern, extreme southern, and southwestern regions. From a socio-environmental and climatic point of view, these regions should be a priority for public policy efforts to reduce their vulnerability and prepare them to cope with the adverse aspects of climate change. PMID:29444086

'Trust but verify'--five approaches to ensure safe medical apps.

PubMed

Wicks, Paul; Chiauzzi, Emil

2015-09-25

Mobile health apps are health and wellness programs available on mobile devices such as smartphones or tablets. In three systematic assessments published in BMC Medicine, Huckvale and colleagues demonstrate that widely available health apps meant to help patients calculate their appropriate insulin dosage, educate themselves about asthma, or perform other important functions are methodologically weak. Insulin dose calculators lacked user input validation and made inappropriate dose recommendations, with a lack of documentation throughout. Since 2011, asthma apps have become more interactive, but have not improved in quality; peak flow calculators have the same issues as the insulin calculators. A review of the accredited National Health Service Health Apps Library found poor and inconsistent implementation of privacy and security, with 28% of apps lacking a privacy policy and one even transmitting personally identifying data the policy claimed would be anonymous. Ensuring patient safety might require a new approach, whether that be a consumer education program at one extreme or government regulation at the other. App store owners could ensure transparency of algorithms (whiteboxing), data sharing, and data quality. While a proper balance must be struck between innovation and caution, patient safety must be paramount.Please see related articles: http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12916-015-0444-y , http://www.biomedcentral.com/1741-7015/13/106 and http://www.biomedcentral.com/1741-7015/13/58.

Mapping human vulnerability to climate change in the Brazilian Amazon: The construction of a municipal vulnerability index.

PubMed

Menezes, Júlia Alves; Confalonieri, Ulisses; Madureira, Ana Paula; Duval, Isabela de Brito; Santos, Rhavena Barbosa Dos; Margonari, Carina

2018-01-01

Vulnerability, understood as the propensity to be adversely affected, has attained importance in the context of climate change by helping to understand what makes populations and territories predisposed to its impacts. Conditions of vulnerability may vary depending on the characteristics of each territory studied-social, environmental, infrastructural, public policies, among others. Thus, the present study aimed to evaluate what makes the municipalities of the state of Amazonas, Brazil, vulnerable to climate change in the context of the largest tropical forest in the world, and which regions of the State are the most susceptible. A Municipal Vulnerability Index was developed, which was used to associate current socio-environmental characteristics of municipalities with climate change scenarios in order to identify those that may be most affected by climate change. The results showed that poor adaptive capacity and poverty had the most influence on current vulnerability of the municipalities of Amazonas with the most vulnerable areas being the southern, northern, and eastern regions of the state. When current vulnerability was related to future climate change projections, the most vulnerable areas were the northern, northeastern, extreme southern, and southwestern regions. From a socio-environmental and climatic point of view, these regions should be a priority for public policy efforts to reduce their vulnerability and prepare them to cope with the adverse aspects of climate change.

Perceptions of Heat Risk to Health: A Qualitative Study of Professional Bus Drivers and Their Managers in Jinan, China

PubMed Central

Zhou, Lin; Xin, Zheng; Bai, Li; Wan, Fangjun; Wang, Yongming; Sang, Shaowei; Liu, Shouqin; Zhang, Ji; Liu, Qiyong

2014-01-01

Summer extreme heat threatens the health of individuals, especially persons who are involved in outdoor activities. Ensuring the normal function of a city, bus drivers are among those who participate in outdoor physical activities and are exposed to excessive heat in hot summer weather. This qualitative study was performed to explore professional bus drivers’ in-depth views of extreme heat risks to their health, and ultimately develop targeted advice and policy interventions for city bus drivers. An interview-based study was performed among professional bus drivers in Jinan, China, including four focus groups with professional bus drivers (n = 37) and three interviews with their managers (n = 14). Five central themes or categories from the bus driver interviews were found: concerns about summer heat; health effects related to extreme heat; adaptive measures; barriers in implementing these adaptive measures; and suggested interventions. The beneficial role of cooling facilities (particularly air-conditioning) during extreme heat are addressed. The barriers not only impede the implementation of behavioral adaptive measures but also enhance the negative attitudes of bus drivers towards their effectiveness. The responsibilities of managers in promoting preventive actions are addressed. PMID:24477213

The policy process for health promotion.

PubMed

Söderberg, Erik; Wikström, Ewa

2015-08-01

The paper aims to contribute to our understanding of the policy process in health promotion by addressing the following questions: What are the characteristics of the policy process in health promotion? How do policy entrepreneurs influence project implementation? This is a qualitative study with an explorative case study design that uses three different data sources: qualitative interviews, written documents and observations. The paper examines several factors (determinants) that influence the policy process and that, to a lesser extent, are addressed by current models in health policy research. Legitimacy, financial capacity, available structure and political timing are all important determinants that influence the policy process. Policy entrepreneurs, with established networks and knowledge of the environment and its procedures, create legitimacy and provide opportunities for action; however, indistinct organizational boundaries among roles and poorly defined individual responsibilities create policy process uncertainty. As a result, there are lengthy discussions and few decisions, both of which delay the progress of a project. This paper's theoretical contribution is its analysis of the relationship of policy-making to linear models, via a discussion of policy entrepreneurs, and their importance in the policy process. The paper concludes that we need to consider the influence of policy entrepreneurs, whom build legitimacy and seize action opportunities by coupling the three streams in the policy process, as they help bring projects to fruition. Furthermore, the study points to the importance of policy entrepreneurs throughout the policy process. The paper has practical implications for practitioners whom work with the implementation of community policies. © 2015 the Nordic Societies of Public Health.

Money-back guarantee warranty policy with preventive maintenance strategy for sensor-embedded remanufactured products

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alqahtani, Ammar Y.; Gupta, Surendra M.

2018-01-01

In today's global environment, technology is constantly evolving. Being able to stay up-to-date with the very latest technological advances can be extremely hard to accomplish. As a result of these changes and developments in technology, which often come unexpectedly, consumers are frequently tempted to update their devices to the very latest model. The result is that the life cycle of a product is becoming shorter and shorter than before. Manufacturers attempt to respond to consumers' concerns involving environmental issues as well as the more governmentally stringent environmental legislations by establishing facilities which include the minimization of the totality of waste relocated to landfills by recovering materials and components from returned, or End-Of-Life products and reuse them to build a remanufactured product, and/or novel components. With the rapid growth of interest in remanufactured products' market, offering warranty for remanufactured products and components is becoming a necessity for remanufacturer in order to meet customers' requirement and as a marketing mechanism. During that process, maintenance policies are of great importance in order to reduce the warranty cost on the remanufacturer. In this paper, an optimization simulation model for remanufactured items sold with one-dimensional non-renewing money-back guarantee (MBG) warranty policy is proposed from the view of remanufacturer, in which, an End-Of-Life product is subjected to upgrade action at the end of its past life and during the warranty period, preventive maintenance actions are carried out when the remaining life of the product reaches a pre-specified value so that the remanufacturer's expected profit can be maximized. Finally, a numerical example and design of experiment analysis are provided to demonstrate the proposed approach.

Ecologically sustainable weed management: How do we get from proof-of-concept to adoption?

PubMed

Liebman, Matt; Baraibar, Bàrbara; Buckley, Yvonne; Childs, Dylan; Christensen, Svend; Cousens, Roger; Eizenberg, Hanan; Heijting, Sanne; Loddo, Donato; Merotto, Aldo; Renton, Michael; Riemens, Marleen

2016-07-01

Weed management is a critically important activity on both agricultural and non-agricultural lands, but it is faced with a daunting set of challenges: environmental damage caused by control practices, weed resistance to herbicides, accelerated rates of weed dispersal through global trade, and greater weed impacts due to changes in climate and land use. Broad-scale use of new approaches is needed if weed management is to be successful in the coming era. We examine three approaches likely to prove useful for addressing current and future challenges from weeds: diversifying weed management strategies with multiple complementary tactics, developing crop genotypes for enhanced weed suppression, and tailoring management strategies to better accommodate variability in weed spatial distributions. In all three cases, proof-of-concept has long been demonstrated and considerable scientific innovations have been made, but uptake by farmers and land managers has been extremely limited. Impediments to employing these and other ecologically based approaches include inadequate or inappropriate government policy instruments, a lack of market mechanisms, and a paucity of social infrastructure with which to influence learning, decision-making, and actions by farmers and land managers. We offer examples of how these impediments are being addressed in different parts of the world, but note that there is no clear formula for determining which sets of policies, market mechanisms, and educational activities will be effective in various locations. Implementing new approaches for weed management will require multidisciplinary teams comprised of scientists, engineers, economists, sociologists, educators, farmers, land managers, industry personnel, policy makers, and others willing to focus on weeds within whole farming systems and land management units. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

Ethical Considerations for Planetary Protection in Space Exploration: A Workshop

PubMed Central

Rummel, J.D.; Horneck, G.

2012-01-01

Abstract With the recognition of an increasing potential for discovery of extraterrestrial life, a diverse set of researchers have noted a need to examine the foundational ethical principles that should frame our collective space activities as we explore outer space. A COSPAR Workshop on Ethical Considerations for Planetary Protection in Space Exploration was convened at Princeton University on June 8–10, 2010, to examine whether planetary protection measures and practices should be extended to protect planetary environments within an ethical framework that goes beyond “science protection” per se. The workshop had been in development prior to a 2006 NRC report on preventing the forward contamination of Mars, although it responded directly to one of the recommendations of that report and to several peer-reviewed papers as well. The workshop focused on the implications and responsibilities engendered when exploring outer space while avoiding harmful impacts on planetary bodies. Over 3 days, workshop participants developed a set of recommendations addressing the need for a revised policy framework to address “harmful contamination” beyond biological contamination, noting that it is important to maintain the current COSPAR planetary protection policy for scientific exploration and activities. The attendees agreed that there is need for further study of the ethical considerations used on Earth and the examination of management options and governmental mechanisms useful for establishing an environmental stewardship framework that incorporates both scientific input and enforcement. Scientists need to undertake public dialogue to communicate widely about these future policy deliberations and to ensure public involvement in decision making. A number of incremental steps have been taken since the workshop to implement some of these recommendations. Key Words: Planetary protection—Extraterrestrial life—Life in extreme environments—Environment—Habitability. Astrobiology 12, 1017–1023. PMID:23095097

The Structure of Policy Networks for Injury and Violence Prevention in 15 US Cities

PubMed Central

Jonson-Reid, Melissa; Carothers, Bobbi J.; Fowler, Patrick

2017-01-01

Objectives: Changes in policy can reduce violence and injury; however, little is known about how partnerships among organizations influence policy development, adoption, and implementation. To understand partnerships among organizations working on injury and violence prevention (IVP) policy, we examined IVP policy networks in 15 large US cities. Methods: In summer 2014, we recruited 15 local health departments (LHDs) to participate in the study. They identified an average of 28.9 local partners (SD = 10.2) working on IVP policy. In late 2014, we sent survey questionnaires to 434 organizations, including the 15 LHDs and their local partners, about their partnerships and the importance of each organization to local IVP policy efforts; 319 participated. We used network methods to examine the composition and structure of the policy networks. Results: Each IVP policy network included the LHD and an average of 21.3 (SD = 6.9) local partners. On average, nonprofit organizations constituted 50.7% of networks, followed by government agencies (26.3%), schools and universities (11.8%), coalitions (11.2%), voluntary organizations (9.6%), hospitals (8.5%), foundations (2.2%), and for-profit organizations (0.7%). Government agencies were perceived as important by the highest proportion of partners. Perceived importance was significantly associated with forming partnerships in most networks; odds ratios ranged from 1.07 (95% CI, 1.02-1.13) to 2.35 (95% CI, 1.68-3.28). Organization type was significantly associated with partnership formation in most networks after controlling for an organization’s importance to the network. Conclusions: Several strategies could strengthen local IVP policy networks, including (1) developing connections with partners from sectors that are not well integrated into the networks and (2) encouraging indirect or less formal connections with important but missing partners and partner types. PMID:28426291

The Structure of Policy Networks for Injury and Violence Prevention in 15 US Cities.

PubMed

Harris, Jenine K; Jonson-Reid, Melissa; Carothers, Bobbi J; Fowler, Patrick

Changes in policy can reduce violence and injury; however, little is known about how partnerships among organizations influence policy development, adoption, and implementation. To understand partnerships among organizations working on injury and violence prevention (IVP) policy, we examined IVP policy networks in 15 large US cities. In summer 2014, we recruited 15 local health departments (LHDs) to participate in the study. They identified an average of 28.9 local partners (SD = 10.2) working on IVP policy. In late 2014, we sent survey questionnaires to 434 organizations, including the 15 LHDs and their local partners, about their partnerships and the importance of each organization to local IVP policy efforts; 319 participated. We used network methods to examine the composition and structure of the policy networks. Each IVP policy network included the LHD and an average of 21.3 (SD = 6.9) local partners. On average, nonprofit organizations constituted 50.7% of networks, followed by government agencies (26.3%), schools and universities (11.8%), coalitions (11.2%), voluntary organizations (9.6%), hospitals (8.5%), foundations (2.2%), and for-profit organizations (0.7%). Government agencies were perceived as important by the highest proportion of partners. Perceived importance was significantly associated with forming partnerships in most networks; odds ratios ranged from 1.07 (95% CI, 1.02-1.13) to 2.35 (95% CI, 1.68-3.28). Organization type was significantly associated with partnership formation in most networks after controlling for an organization's importance to the network. Several strategies could strengthen local IVP policy networks, including (1) developing connections with partners from sectors that are not well integrated into the networks and (2) encouraging indirect or less formal connections with important but missing partners and partner types.

Vulnerability and impact assessment of extreme climatic event: A case study of southern Punjab, Pakistan.

PubMed

Aslam, Abdul Qayyum; Ahmad, Sajid R; Ahmad, Iftikhar; Hussain, Yawar; Hussain, Muhammad Sameem

2017-02-15

Understanding of frequency, severity, damages and adaptation costs of climate extremes is crucial to manage their aftermath. Evaluation of PRECIS RCM modelled data under IPCC scenarios in Southern Punjab reveals that monthly mean temperature is 30°C under A2 scenario, 2.4°C higher than A1B which is 27.6°C in defined time lapses. Monthly mean precipitation under A2 scenario ranges from 12 to 15mm and for A1B scenario it ranges from 15 to 19mm. Frequency modelling of floods and droughts via poisson distribution shows increasing trend in upcoming decades posing serious impacts on agriculture and livestock, food security, water resources, public health and economic status. Cumulative loss projected for frequent floods without adaptation will be in the range of USD 66.8-79.3 billion in time lapse of 40years from 2010 base case. Drought damage function @ 18% for A2 scenario and @ 13.5% for A1B scenario was calculated; drought losses on agriculture and livestock sectors were modelled. Cumulative loss projected for frequent droughts without adaptation under A2 scenario will be in the range of USD 7.5-8.5 billion while under A1B scenario it will be in the range of USD 3.5-4.2 billion for time lapse of 60years from base case 1998-2002. Severity analysis of extreme events shows that situation get worse if adaptations are not only included in the policy but also in the integrated development framework with required allocation of funds. This evaluation also highlights the result of cost benefit analysis, benefits of the adaptation options (mean & worst case) for floods and droughts in Southern Punjab. Additionally the research highlights the role of integrated extreme events impact assessment methodology in performing the vulnerability assessments and to support the adaptation decisions. This paper is an effort to highlight importance of bottom up approaches to deal with climate change. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Tobacco policies in Nazi Germany: not as simple as it seems

PubMed Central

Bachinger, Eleonore; McKee, Martin; Gilmore, Anna

2008-01-01

Summary Objective Reluctance to develop effective tobacco control measures in Germany has been attributed to the anti-smoking stance taken by the Nazis, which has encouraged pro-smoking groups to equate tobacco control advocacy with totalitarianism. This paper reassesses the scale and nature of tobacco control in Germany during the Third Reich. Design Analysis of documents and reports about the situation in Germany in the 1930s and 1940s supplemented by a review of Reich legal ordinances, party newspapers, health behaviour guidelines issued by Nazi party organizations, and interviews with expert informants. Results While there was considerable opposition to smoking in Nazi Germany, there was no consistent Nazi policy to combat smoking, and what did exist built on pre-existing policies. Although extreme measures were taken in isolated localities or by overzealous party members, there was a marked ambivalence to tobacco control at the highest levels. Many policies were contradictory; measures were often not enforced, and cigarettes were actively distributed to ‘deserving’ groups. Conclusion Policies on tobacco in Nazi Germany are much more complex than is often represented by those who invoke them to condemn those seeking to reduce the burden of disease caused by smoking. PMID:18222506

Are extreme hydro-meteorological events a prerequisite for extreme water quality impacts? Exploring climate impacts on inland and coastal waters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Michalak, A. M.; Balaji, V.; Del Giudice, D.; Sinha, E.; Zhou, Y.; Ho, J. C.

2017-12-01

Questions surrounding water sustainability, climate change, and extreme events are often framed around water quantity - whether too much or too little. The massive impacts of extreme water quality impairments are equally compelling, however. Recent years have provided a host of compelling examples, with unprecedented harmful algal blooms developing along the West coast, in Utah Lake, in Lake Erie, and off the Florida coast, and huge hypoxic dead zones continuing to form in regions such as Lake Erie, the Chesapeake Bay, and the Gulf of Mexico. Linkages between climate change, extreme events, and water quality impacts are not well understood, however. Several factors explain this lack of understanding, including the relative complexity of underlying processes, the spatial and temporal scale mismatch between hydrologists and climatologists, and observational uncertainty leading to ambiguities in the historical record. Here, we draw on a number of recent studies that aim to quantitatively link meteorological variability and water quality impacts to test the hypothesis that extreme water quality impairments are the result of extreme hydro-meteorological events. We find that extreme hydro-meteorological events are neither always a necessary nor a sufficient condition for the occurrence of extreme water quality impacts. Rather, extreme water quality impairments often occur in situations where multiple contributing factors compound, which complicates both attribution of historical events and the ability to predict the future incidence of such events. Given the critical societal importance of water quality projections, a concerted program of uncertainty reduction encompassing observational and modeling components will be needed to examine situations where extreme weather plays an important, but not solitary, role in the chain of cause and effect.

Extreme events of perceived temperature over Europe: a projected northward extension of dangerous areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scoccimarro, Enrico; Fogli, Pier Giuseppe; Gualdi, Silvio

2017-04-01

It is well known that an increase of temperature over Europe, both in terms of averages and extremes, is expected within the current century. In order to consider health impacts under warm conditions, it is important to take into account the combined effect of temperature and humidity on the human body. To this aim a basic index - the humindex - representative of the perceived temperature, under different scenarios and periods, has been investigated in this study. A very low concomitance of extreme temperature events and extreme humindex events is found over the present climate, reinforcing the importance to investigate not only extreme temperature and relative humidity future projections but also the combination of the two parameters. A set of 10-km resolution regional climate simulations provided within the EUR-11 EURO-CORDEX multi-model effort, demonstrates ability in representing the intense and extreme events of the humindex over the present climate and to be eligible as a tool to quantify future changes in geographical patterns of exposed areas over Europe. An enlargement of the domain subject to dangerous conditions is found since the middle of the current century, reaching 60 degrees North when considering really extreme events. The most significant increase in humindex extreme events is found when comparing the 2066-2095 projections under rcp8.5 scenario, to the 1966-2005 period: bearing in mind that changes in relative humidity may either amplify or offset the health effects of temperature extremes, a less pronounced projected reduction of relative humidity intensity in the Northern part of the European domain, associated to extreme temperature and humindex, makes Northern Europe the most prone region to a local increase of the humindex extremes.

Linking models of human behaviour and climate alters projected climate change

DOE PAGES

Beckage, Brian; Gross, Louis J.; Lacasse, Katherine; ...

2018-01-01

Although not considered in climate models, perceived risk stemming from extreme climate events may induce behavioural changes that alter greenhouse gas emissions. Here, we link the C-ROADS climate model to a social model of behavioural change to examine how interactions between perceived risk and emissions behaviour influence projected climate change. Our coupled climate and social model resulted in a global temperature change ranging from 3.4–6.2 °C by 2100 compared with 4.9 °C for the C-ROADS model alone, and led to behavioural uncertainty that was of a similar magnitude to physical uncertainty (2.8 °C versus 3.5 °C). Model components with themore » largest influence on temperature were the functional form of response to extreme events, interaction of perceived behavioural control with perceived social norms, and behaviours leading to sustained emissions reductions. Lastly, our results suggest that policies emphasizing the appropriate attribution of extreme events to climate change and infrastructural mitigation may reduce climate change the most.« less

Linking models of human behaviour and climate alters projected climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beckage, Brian; Gross, Louis J.; Lacasse, Katherine; Carr, Eric; Metcalf, Sara S.; Winter, Jonathan M.; Howe, Peter D.; Fefferman, Nina; Franck, Travis; Zia, Asim; Kinzig, Ann; Hoffman, Forrest M.

2018-01-01

Although not considered in climate models, perceived risk stemming from extreme climate events may induce behavioural changes that alter greenhouse gas emissions. Here, we link the C-ROADS climate model to a social model of behavioural change to examine how interactions between perceived risk and emissions behaviour influence projected climate change. Our coupled climate and social model resulted in a global temperature change ranging from 3.4-6.2 °C by 2100 compared with 4.9 °C for the C-ROADS model alone, and led to behavioural uncertainty that was of a similar magnitude to physical uncertainty (2.8 °C versus 3.5 °C). Model components with the largest influence on temperature were the functional form of response to extreme events, interaction of perceived behavioural control with perceived social norms, and behaviours leading to sustained emissions reductions. Our results suggest that policies emphasizing the appropriate attribution of extreme events to climate change and infrastructural mitigation may reduce climate change the most.

Linking models of human behaviour and climate alters projected climate change

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Beckage, Brian; Gross, Louis J.; Lacasse, Katherine

Although not considered in climate models, perceived risk stemming from extreme climate events may induce behavioural changes that alter greenhouse gas emissions. Here, we link the C-ROADS climate model to a social model of behavioural change to examine how interactions between perceived risk and emissions behaviour influence projected climate change. Our coupled climate and social model resulted in a global temperature change ranging from 3.4–6.2 °C by 2100 compared with 4.9 °C for the C-ROADS model alone, and led to behavioural uncertainty that was of a similar magnitude to physical uncertainty (2.8 °C versus 3.5 °C). Model components with themore » largest influence on temperature were the functional form of response to extreme events, interaction of perceived behavioural control with perceived social norms, and behaviours leading to sustained emissions reductions. Lastly, our results suggest that policies emphasizing the appropriate attribution of extreme events to climate change and infrastructural mitigation may reduce climate change the most.« less

Upper Extremity Amputations and Prosthetics

PubMed Central

Ovadia, Steven A.; Askari, Morad

2015-01-01

Upper extremity amputations are most frequently indicated by severe traumatic injuries. The location of the injury will determine the level of amputation. Preservation of extremity length is often a goal. The amputation site will have important implications on the functional status of the patient and options for prosthetic reconstruction. Advances in amputation techniques and prosthetic reconstructions promote improved quality of life. In this article, the authors review the principles of upper extremity amputation, including techniques, amputation sites, and prosthetic reconstructions. PMID:25685104

Are recent severe floods in Xiang River basin of China linked with the increase extreme precipitation?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheng, L.; Du, J.

2015-12-01

The Xiang River, a main tributary of the Yangtze River, is subjected to high floods frequently in recent twenty years. Climate change, including abrupt shifts and fluctuations in precipitation is an important factor influencing hydrological extreme conditions. In addition, human activities are widely recognized as another reasons leading to high flood risk. With the effects of climate change and human interventions on hydrological cycle, there are several questions that need to be addressed. Are floods in the Xiang River basin getting worse? Whether the extreme streamflow shows an increasing tendency? If so, is it because the extreme rainfall events have predominant effect on floods? To answer these questions, the article detected existing trends in extreme precipitation and discharge using Mann-Kendall test. Continuous wavelet transform method was employed to identify the consistency of changes in extreme precipitation and discharge. The Pearson correlation analysis was applied to investigate how much degree of variations in extreme discharge can be explained by climate change. The results indicate that slightly upward trends can be detected in both extreme rainfalls and discharge in the upper region of Xiang River basin. For the most area of middle and lower river basin, the extreme rainfalls show significant positive trends, but the extreme discharge displays slightly upward trends with no significance at 90% confidence level. Wavelet transform analysis results illustrate that highly similar patterns of signal changes can be seen between extreme precipitation and discharge in upper section of the basin, while the changes in extreme precipitation for the middle and lower reaches do not always coincide with the extreme streamflow. The correlation coefficients of the wavelet transforms for the precipitation and discharge signals in most area of the basin pass the significance test. The conclusion may be drawn that floods in recent years are not getting worse in Xiang River basin. The similar signal patterns and positive correlation between extreme discharge and precipitation indicate that the variability of extreme precipitation has an important effect on extreme discharge of flood, although the intensity of human impacts in lower section of Xiang River basin has increased markedly.

Comparison and interactions between the long-term pursuit of energy independence and climate policies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jewell, Jessica; Vinichenko, Vadim; McCollum, David; Bauer, Nico; Riahi, Keywan; Aboumahboub, Tino; Fricko, Oliver; Harmsen, Mathijs; Kober, Tom; Krey, Volker; Marangoni, Giacomo; Tavoni, Massimo; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; van der Zwaan, Bob; Cherp, Aleh

2016-06-01

Ensuring energy security and mitigating climate change are key energy policy priorities. The recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Working Group III report emphasized that climate policies can deliver energy security as a co-benefit, in large part through reducing energy imports. Using five state-of-the-art global energy-economy models and eight long-term scenarios, we show that although deep cuts in greenhouse gas emissions would reduce energy imports, the reverse is not true: ambitious policies constraining energy imports would have an insignificant impact on climate change. Restricting imports of all fuels would lower twenty-first-century emissions by only 2-15% against the Baseline scenario as compared with a 70% reduction in a 450 stabilization scenario. Restricting only oil imports would have virtually no impact on emissions. The modelled energy independence targets could be achieved at policy costs comparable to those of existing climate pledges but a fraction of the cost of limiting global warming to 2 ∘C.

Semistable extremal ground states for nonlinear evolution equations in unbounded domains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodríguez-Bernal, Aníbal; Vidal-López, Alejandro

2008-02-01

In this paper we show that dissipative reaction-diffusion equations in unbounded domains posses extremal semistable ground states equilibria, which bound asymptotically the global dynamics. Uniqueness of such positive ground state and their approximation by extremal equilibria in bounded domains is also studied. The results are then applied to the important case of logistic equations.

Methods for Influencing Social Policy: The Role of Social Experiments.

PubMed

Shinn, Marybeth

2016-12-01

Research methods in community psychology have grown more diverse since the Swampscott conference, but rigorous social experiments maintain a place among the multiplicity of methods that can promote community psychology values. They are particularly influential in policy circles. Two examples of social experiments to end homelessness for different populations illustrate their role. Both studies show that offering extremely poor and disenfranchised people autonomy and the resources they seek works better than "helping" them to overcome deficits in ways designed by well-meaning service providers. Experiments are neither the first nor the last method community psychologists should employ, but are a critical part of the field's armamentarium for systems change. © Society for Community Research and Action 2016.

The Vagaries Of Public Support For Government Actions In Case Of A Pandemic

PubMed Central

Hilyard, Karen M.; Freimuth, Vicki S.; Musa, Donald; Kumar, Supriya; Quinn, Sandra Crouse

2011-01-01

Government health measures in a pandemic are effective only with strong support and compliance from the public. A survey of 1,583 US adults early in the 2009 H1N1 (swine influenza) pandemic shows surprisingly mixed support for possible government efforts to control the spread of the disease, with strong support for more extreme measures such as closing borders and weak support for more basic, and potentially more effective, policies such as encouraging sick people to stay home from work. The results highlight challenges that public health officials and policy makers must address in formulating strategies to respond to a pandemic before a more severe outbreak occurs. PMID:21134932

On alternative q-Weibull and q-extreme value distributions: Properties and applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Fode; Ng, Hon Keung Tony; Shi, Yimin

2018-01-01

Tsallis statistics and Tsallis distributions have been attracting a significant amount of research work in recent years. Importantly, the Tsallis statistics, q-distributions have been applied in different disciplines. Yet, a relationship between some existing q-Weibull distributions and q-extreme value distributions that is parallel to the well-established relationship between the conventional Weibull and extreme value distributions through a logarithmic transformation has not be established. In this paper, we proposed an alternative q-Weibull distribution that leads to a q-extreme value distribution via the q-logarithm transformation. Some important properties of the proposed q-Weibull and q-extreme value distributions are studied. Maximum likelihood and least squares estimation methods are used to estimate the parameters of q-Weibull distribution and their performances are investigated through a Monte Carlo simulation study. The methodologies and the usefulness of the proposed distributions are illustrated by fitting the 2014 traffic fatalities data from The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration.

Solid wastes from nuclear power production.

PubMed Central

Soule, H F

1978-01-01

Radioactivity in nuclear power effluents is negligible compared to that in retained wastes to be disposed of as solids. Two basic waste categories are those for which shallow disposal is accepted and those for which more extreme isolation is desired. The latter includes "high level" wastes and others contaminated with radionuclides with the unusual combined properties of long radioactive half-life and high specific radiotoxicity. The favored method for extreme isolation is emplacement in a deep stable geologic formation. Necessary technologies for waste treatment and disposal are considered available. The present program to implement these technologies is discussed, including the waste management significance of current policy on spent nuclear fuel reprocessing. Recent difficulties with shallow disposal of waste are summarized. PMID:738244

Weather extremes could affect agriculture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Balcerak, Ernie

2012-05-01

As Earth's climate warms, agricultural producers will need to adapt. Changes, especially increases in extreme events, are already having an impact on food production, according to speakers at a 1 May session on agriculture and food security at the AGU Science Policy Conference. Christopher Field, director of the Department of Global Ecology at the Carnegie Institution for Science of Washington, D. C., pointed out the complex factors that come into play in understanding food security, including spatially varying controls and stresses, incomplete models, and the potential for threshold responses. Factors that are likely to cause problems include increasing population; increasing preference for meat, which needs more land and energy inputs to produce; climate change; and increasing use of agricultural lands for biomass energy.

Exploring Nurse Leaders' Policy Participation Within the Context of a Nursing Conceptual Framework.

PubMed

Waddell, Ashley; Adams, Jeffrey M; Fawcett, Jacqueline

2017-11-01

This study was designed to describe and quantify the experiences of nurse leaders working to influence policy and to build consensus for priority skills and knowledge useful in policy efforts within the context of a nursing conceptual framework. The conceptual model for nursing and health policy and the Adams influence model were combined into a conceptual framework used to guide this two-round modified Delphi study. Twenty-two nurse leaders who were members of a state action coalition participated in the Round 1 focus group; 15 of these leaders completed the Round 2 electronic survey. Round 1 themes indicated the value of a passion for policy, the importance of clear communication, and an understanding the who and when of policy work. Round 2 data reinforced the importance of clear communication regarding policy engagement; knowing the who and when of policy closely followed, and having a passion for policy work was identified as least important. These themes inform learning objectives for nursing education and preparation for interactions with public officials because influencing policy requires knowledge, skills, and persistence. Study findings begin to describe how nurse leaders influence policy within the context of a nursing conceptual framework and generate implications for research, education, and professional practice.

US DOE International energy policy on Russia

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gale, B.G.

1996-04-01

This report describes the importance of the United States Department of Energy`s (US DOE) International Energy Policy to Russia. Key objectives identified include the support of the transition to democracy and a market based economy. The U.S.interests at stake, importance of energy to Russia, key institutional mechanism, energy-policy committee, joint energy activities, and the key to the success of other U.S. policy are discussed.

Analysis of the Paternalistic Justification of an Agenda Setting Public Health Policy: The Case of Tobacco Plain Packaging

PubMed Central

Anker, Thomas Boysen

2016-01-01

This article analyses the paternalistic justification of the world’s first mandatory tobacco plain packaging policy, which came into force in Australia in 2012. The policy is setting international precedence, with a range of developed and developing countries planning and implementing similar policies. Understanding the paternalistic dimension of the policy is therefore of imminent international importance. The policy meets important ethical benchmarks such as respect for citizens’ self-interests and protection of others against harm. However, plain packaging faces a number of ethical challenges: the policy is a controversial type of paternalism; it runs partially against the harm principle; and it fails to meet key operational criteria. PMID:27551306

Mean reversion in the current account of forty-eight african countries: Evidence from the Panel SURADF test

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chu, Hsiao-Ping; Chang, Tsangyao; Chang, Hsu-Ling; Su, Chi-Wei; Yuan, Young

2007-10-01

Here, the Panel seemingly unrelated regressions augmented Dickey-Fuller test (SURADF) test, first introduced and advanced by Breuer et al. [Misleading inferences from panel unit-root tests with an illustration from purchasing power parity, Rev. Int. Econ. 9(3) (2001) 482-493], is used to investigate the mean-reverting behavior of the current account of 48 African countries during the 1980-2004 periods. The empirical results from numerous panel-based unit root tests, conducted earlier, indicated that the current account of each of these countries is stationary; however, when Breuer et al.'s (2001) Panel SURADF test is conducted, it is found that a unit root exists in the current account of 11 of the countries studied. These results have one extremely important policy implication for the 48 African countries studied: the current account deficit of most is sustainable, and thus signifying that those nations should have no incentive to default on their international debt.

Decision strategies to reduce teenage and young adult deaths in the United States.

PubMed

Keeney, Ralph L; Palley, Asa B

2013-09-01

This article uses decision analysis concepts and techniques to address an extremely important problem to any family with children, namely, how to avoid the tragic death of a child during the high-risk ages of 15-24. Descriptively, our analysis indicates that of the 35,000 annual deaths among this age group in the United States, approximately 20,000 could be avoided if individuals chose readily available alternatives for decisions relating to these deaths. Prescriptively, we develop a decision framework for parents and a child to both identify and proactively pursue decisions that can lower that child's exposure to life-threatening risks and positively alter decisions when facing such risks. Applying this framework for parents and the youth themselves, we illustrate the logic and process of generating proactive alternatives with numerous examples that each could pursue to lower these life-threatening risks and possibly avoid a tragic premature death, and discuss some public policy implications of our findings. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.

Integrating regional conservation priorities for multiple objectives into national policy

PubMed Central

Beger, Maria; McGowan, Jennifer; Treml, Eric A.; Green, Alison L.; White, Alan T.; Wolff, Nicholas H.; Klein, Carissa J.; Mumby, Peter J.; Possingham, Hugh P.

2015-01-01

Multinational conservation initiatives that prioritize investment across a region invariably navigate trade-offs among multiple objectives. It seems logical to focus where several objectives can be achieved efficiently, but such multi-objective hotspots may be ecologically inappropriate, or politically inequitable. Here we devise a framework to facilitate a regionally cohesive set of marine-protected areas driven by national preferences and supported by quantitative conservation prioritization analyses, and illustrate it using the Coral Triangle Initiative. We identify areas important for achieving six objectives to address ecosystem representation, threatened fauna, connectivity and climate change. We expose trade-offs between areas that contribute substantially to several objectives and those meeting one or two objectives extremely well. Hence there are two strategies to guide countries choosing to implement regional goals nationally: multi-objective hotspots and complementary sets of single-objective priorities. This novel framework is applicable to any multilateral or global initiative seeking to apply quantitative information in decision making. PMID:26364769

The Multi-TW Scale Future for Photovoltaics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wilson, Gregory M

This chapter is focused on photovoltaics (PV) and argues that this rapidly developing technology is emerging as one of the most important tools policy makers have for meeting COP21 carbon emissions reduction targets. Focusing on the contributions and advancements that PV is likely to make to the global energy system over the next 10-15 years, it gives a basic overview of mainstream PV conversion technologies, summarizes roughly 40 years of research and industrial history then closes with a brief discussion of how PV and energy storage are likely to impact the world's energy landscape going forward. The chapter closely couplesmore » an increasingly urgent carbon emissions and climate change problem with dramatic PV advancements over the last 10 years in terms of both performance and cost. Ultimately PV is presented as an extremely useful tool for helping to reduce global carbon emissions with little to no increase in electricity costs, in a timeframe that is meaningful to the global carbon emissions problem.« less

Partnerships for affordable and equitable disaster insurance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mysiak, J.; Pérez-Blanco, C. D.

2015-08-01

Extreme events are becoming more frequent and intense, inflating the economic damages and social hardship set-off by natural catastrophes. Amidst budgetary cuts, there is a growing concern on societies' ability to design solvent disaster recovery strategies, while addressing equity and affordability concerns. The participation of private sector along with public one through Public-Private Partnerships (PPPs) has gained on importance as a means to address these seemingly conflicting objectives through the provision of (catastrophic) natural hazard insurance. This is the case of many OECD countries, notably some EU Member States such as the United Kingdom and Spain. The EU legislator has adapted to this new scenario and recently produced major reforms in the legislation and regulation that govern the framework in which PPPs for (catastrophic) natural hazard insurance develop. This paper has a dual objective: (1) review the complex legal background that rules the provision of insurance against natural catastrophes in the EU after these major reforms, (2) assess the implications of the reforms and offer concise Policy Guiding Principles.

Social welfare matters: a realist review of when, how, and why unemployment insurance impacts poverty and health.

PubMed

O'Campo, Patricia; Molnar, Agnes; Ng, Edwin; Renahy, Emilie; Mitchell, Christiane; Shankardass, Ketan; St John, Alexander; Bambra, Clare; Muntaner, Carles

2015-05-01

The recent global recession and concurrent rise in job loss makes unemployment insurance (UI) increasingly important to smooth patterns of consumption and keep households from experiencing extreme material poverty. In this paper, we undertake a realist review to produce a critical understanding of how and why UI policies impact on poverty and health in different welfare state contexts between 2000 and 2013. We relied on literature and expert interviews to generate an initial theory and set of propositions about how UI might alleviate poverty and mental distress. We then systematically located and synthesized peer-review studies to glean supportive or contradictory evidence for our initial propositions. Poverty and psychological distress, among unemployed and even the employed, are impacted by generosity of UI in terms of eligibility, duration and wage replacement levels. Though unemployment benefits are not intended to compensate fully for a loss of earnings, generous UI programs can moderate harmful consequences of unemployment. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Marketing and reputation aspects of neonatal safeguards and hospital-security systems.

PubMed

Smith, Alan D

2009-01-01

Technological advancements have migrated from personal-use electronics into the healthcare setting for security enhancements. Within maternity wards and nurseries, technology was seen as one of best way to protect newborns from abduction. The present study is a focus on what systems and methods are used in neonatal security, the security arrangements, staff training, and impacts outside the control of the hospital, customer satisfaction and customer relations management. Through hypothesis-testing and exploratory analysis, gender biases and extremely high levels of security were found within a web-enabled and professional sample of 200 respondents. The factor-based constructs were found to be, in order of the greatest explained variance: security concerns, personal technology usage, work technology applications, and demographic maturity concerns, resulting in four factor-based scores with significant combined variance of 61.5%. It was found that through a better understanding on the importance and vital need for hospitals to continue to improve on their technology-based security policies significantly enhanced their reputation in the highly competitive local healthcare industry.

The multi-TW scale future for photovoltaics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilson, Gregory

2018-01-01

This chapter is focused on photovoltaics (PV) and argues that this rapidly developing technology is emerging as one of the most important tools policy makers have for meeting COP21 carbon emissions reduction targets. Focusing on the contributions and advancements that PV is likely to make to the global energy system over the next 10-15 years, it gives a basic overview of mainstream PV conversion technologies, summarizes roughly 40 years of research and industrial history then closes with a brief discussion of how PV and energy storage are likely to impact the world's energy landscape going forward. The chapter closely couples an increasingly urgent carbon emissions and climate change problem with dramatic PV advancements over the last 10 years in terms of both performance and cost. Ultimately PV is presented as an extremely useful tool for helping to reduce global carbon emissions with little to no increase in electricity costs, in a timeframe that is meaningful to the global carbon emissions problem.

Enhanced science-stakeholder communication to improve ecosystem model performances for climate change impact assessments.

PubMed

Jönsson, Anna Maria; Anderbrant, Olle; Holmér, Jennie; Johansson, Jacob; Schurgers, Guy; Svensson, Glenn P; Smith, Henrik G

2015-04-01

In recent years, climate impact assessments of relevance to the agricultural and forestry sectors have received considerable attention. Current ecosystem models commonly capture the effect of a warmer climate on biomass production, but they rarely sufficiently capture potential losses caused by pests, pathogens and extreme weather events. In addition, alternative management regimes may not be integrated in the models. A way to improve the quality of climate impact assessments is to increase the science-stakeholder collaboration, and in a two-way dialog link empirical experience and impact modelling with policy and strategies for sustainable management. In this paper we give a brief overview of different ecosystem modelling methods, discuss how to include ecological and management aspects, and highlight the importance of science-stakeholder communication. By this, we hope to stimulate a discussion among the science-stakeholder communities on how to quantify the potential for climate change adaptation by improving the realism in the models.

Will Biomedical Enhancements Undermine Solidarity, Responsibility, Equality and Autonomy?

PubMed Central

Lev, Ori

2009-01-01

Prominent thinkers such as Jurgen Habermas and Michael Sandel are warning that biomedical enhancements will undermine fundamental political values. Yet, whether biomedical enhancements will undermine such values depends on how biomedical enhancements will function, how they will be administered and to whom. Since only few enhancements are obtainable, it is difficult to tell whether their predictions are sound. Nevertheless, such warnings are extremely valuable. As a society we must, at the very least, be aware of developments that could have harmful consequences. Indeed, if important values would be jeopardized, we should take appropriate measures to protect them. This paper focuses on four central values: solidarity, personal responsibility, equality and autonomy. It delineates the conditions under which biomedical enhancements would undermine these values. It also details the circumstances under which these values would be unaffected by enhancements as well as those under which they would be promoted. Specifying these conditions is valuable; it would enable society to prepare appropriate ethical guidelines and policy responses in advance. PMID:20002073

The effects of country-level population policy for enhancing adaptation to climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gunasekara, N. K.; Kazama, S.; Yamazaki, D.; Oki, T.

2013-11-01

The effectiveness of population policy in reducing the combined impacts of population change and climate change on water resources is explored. One no-policy scenario and two scenarios with population policy assumptions are employed in combination with water availability under the SRES scenarios A1b, B1 and A2 for the impact analysis. The population data used are from the World Bank. The river discharges per grid of horizontal resolution 0.5° are obtained from the Total Runoff Integrating Pathways (TRIP) of the University of Tokyo, Japan. Unlike the population scenarios utilized in the SRES emission scenarios and the newest representative concentration pathways, the scenarios employed in this research are based, even after 2050, on country-level rather than regional-level growth assumptions. Our analysis implies that the heterogeneous pattern of population changes across the world is the dominant driver of water stress, irrespective of future greenhouse gas emissions, with highest impacts occurring in the already water-stressed low latitudes. In 2100, Africa, Middle East and parts of Asia are under extreme water stress under all scenarios. The sensitivity analysis reveals that a small reduction in populations over the region could relieve a large number of people from high water stress, while a further increase in population from the assumed levels (SC1) might not increase the number of people under high water stress considerably. Most of the population increase towards 2100 occurs in the already water-stressed lower latitudes. Therefore, population reduction policies are recommended for this region as a method of adaptation to the future water stress conditions. Population reduction policies will facilitate more control over their future development pathways, even if these countries were not able to contribute significantly to greenhouse gas (GHG) emission cuts due to economic constraints. However, for the European region, the population living in water-stressed regions is almost 20 times lower than that in the lower latitudes. For countries with high population momentum, the population policy scenario with fertility-reduction assumptions gained a maximum of 6.1 times the water availability in Niger and 5.3 times that in Uganda compared with the no-policy scenario. Most of these countries are in sub-Saharan Africa. These countries represent 24.5% of the global population in the no-policy scenario, and the scenario with fertility-reduction assumptions reduces it to 8.7% by 2100. This scenario is also effective in reducing the area under extreme water stress in these countries. However, the policy scenario with assumptions of population stabilization at the replacement fertility rate increases the water stress in high-latitude countries. Nevertheless, the impact is low due to the high per capita water availability in the region. This research is expected to widen the understanding of the combined impacts of climate change in the future and of the strategies needed to enhance the space for adaptation.

A new scenario framework for climate change research: The concept of Shared Climate Policy Assumptions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kriegler, Elmar; Edmonds, James A.; Hallegatte, Stephane

2014-04-01

The paper presents the concept of shared climate policy assumptions as an important element of the new scenario framework. Shared climate policy assumptions capture key climate policy dimensions such as the type and scale of mitigation and adaptation measures. They are not specified in the socio-economic reference pathways, and therefore introduce an important third dimension to the scenario matrix architecture. Climate policy assumptions will have to be made in any climate policy scenario, and can have a significant impact on the scenario description. We conclude that a meaningful set of shared climate policy assumptions is useful for grouping individual climatemore » policy analyses and facilitating their comparison. Shared climate policy assumptions should be designed to be policy relevant, and as a set to be broad enough to allow a comprehensive exploration of the climate change scenario space.« less

Japan’s Defense Policy: Forecast and Implications.

DTIC Science & Technology

1979-12-21

aggressive and extreme military values. While the military was developing high self - esteem , many Japanese were critical of the conduct of servicemen... effective defense capabilities progressively within the limits necessary for our self -defense, with due regard to the national resources and the...Cabinet recognized that actual capabilities of the Self -Defense Forces were short of the ultimate goal of "dealing effectively with conventional aggression

Fire exclusion as a disturbance in the temperate forests of the USA: examples from longleaf pine forests

Treesearch

W. Keith Moser; Dale D. Wade

2005-01-01

Forest fires are a disturbance where the effects can range from benign to extreme devastation within a given ecosystem. The stage of stand development coupled with prior management dictates the amount and composition of potential fuels. Thus, fire policy exerts a strong influence on fire effects. Changes in cultural acceptance and use of tire typically drive fire...

The Narrative of Special Education in Sweden: History and Trends in Policy and Practice

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hjörne, Eva

2016-01-01

Access to public education that provides equal opportunities for all is a democratic right for every person living in Sweden. In addition, every child should as far as possible be included in the mainstream school. An official story that is taken for granted in Sweden is that an extremely low proportion of children are in need of special support,…

Catastrophic fat tails and non-smooth damage functions-fire economics and climate change adaptation for public policy

Treesearch

Adriana Keeting; John Handmer

2013-01-01

South-eastern Australia is one of the most fire prone environments on earth. Devastating fires in February 2009 appear to have been off the charts climatically and economically, they led to a new category of fire danger aptly called 'catastrophic'. Almost all wildfire losses have been associated with these extreme conditions and climate change will see an...

Visual Propaganda and Extremism in the Online Environment

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-07-01

Larry Gross, Michael Morgan, and Nancy Signorielli, “The Mainstreaming of American Violence Profile No. 11 ,” Journal of Communication , Vol. 30, Summer...states remain strategic actors, eager to adopt emerging technologies and adapt policy to advance national interests. 11 Revolutions in communication ...MA: Blackwell Publishing, 2004, pp. 170-174. 11 . Doris Graber: “Television News Without Pictures?” Criti- cal Studies in Mass Communication , Vol. 4

JPRS Report, Science & Technology, China: Energy

DTIC Science & Technology

1991-08-23

restriction. Unity push forward. Category 2 should be stabilized and of understanding is essential for promoting reform in improved. Category 3 should be...Consultative Council, everyone wasindustrial policy change, which pays more attention to extremely concerned about the situation at the Three ecnomic ...is essential for spurring economic growth As for the question of power transmission, preliminary in the region. This first of all requires development

Educating "The New Norwegian We": An Examination of National and Cosmopolitan Education Policy Discourses in the Context of Extremism and Islamophobia

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Osler, Audrey; Lybaek, Lena

2014-01-01

Across Europe there are growing concerns about Islamophobia and far-right and anti-democratic movements. Until Anders Behring Breivik's July 2011 attacks in which 77 died, Norway's vulnerability was not perceived as great as that of other jurisdictions. Breivik declared his abhorrence of multiculturalism but also drew the world's attention to…

National Variation in Urethroplasty Cost and Predictors of Extreme Cost: A Cost Analysis With Policy Implications.

PubMed

Harris, Catherine R; Osterberg, E Charles; Sanford, Thomas; Alwaal, Amjad; Gaither, Thomas W; McAninch, Jack W; McCulloch, Charles E; Breyer, Benjamin N

2016-08-01

To determine which factors are associated with higher costs of urethroplasty procedure and whether these factors have been increasing over time. Identification of determinants of extreme costs may help reduce cost while maintaining quality. We conducted a retrospective analysis using the 2001-2010 Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project-Nationwide Inpatient Sample (HCUP-NIS). The HCUP-NIS captures hospital charges which we converted to cost using the HCUP cost-to-charge ratio. Log cost linear regression with sensitivity analysis was used to determine variables associated with increased costs. Extreme cost was defined as the top 20th percentile of expenditure, analyzed with logistic regression, and expressed as odds ratios (OR). A total of 2298 urethroplasties were recorded in NIS over the study period. The median (interquartile range) calculated cost was $7321 ($5677-$10,000). Patients with multiple comorbid conditions were associated with extreme costs [OR 1.56, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.19-2.04, P = .02] compared with patients with no comorbid disease. Inpatient complications raised the odds of extreme costs (OR 3.2, CI 2.14-4.75, P <.001). Graft urethroplasties were associated with extreme costs (OR 1.78, 95% CI 1.2-2.64, P = .005). Variations in patient age, race, hospital region, bed size, teaching status, payor type, and volume of urethroplasty cases were not associated with extremes of cost. Cost variation for perioperative inpatient urethroplasty procedures is dependent on preoperative patient comorbidities, postoperative complications, and surgical complexity related to graft usage. Procedural cost and cost variation are critical for understanding which aspects of care have the greatest impact on cost. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

National Variation in Urethroplasty Cost and Predictors of Extreme Cost: A Cost Analysis with Policy Implications

PubMed Central

Harris, Catherine R.; Osterberg, E. Charles; Sanford, Thomas; Alwaal, Amjad; Gaither, Thomas W.; McAninch, Jack W.; McCulloch, Charles E.; Breyer, Benjamin N.

2016-01-01

Objective To determine which factors are associated with higher urethroplasty procedural costs and whether they have been increasing or decreasing over time. Identification of determinants of extreme costs may help reduce cost while maintaining quality. Materials and Methods We conducted a retrospective analysis using the 2001–2010 Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project - Nationwide Inpatient Sample (HCUP-NIS). The HCUP-NIS captures hospital charges which we converted to cost using the HCUP Cost-to-Charge Ratio. Log cost linear regression with sensitivity analysis was used to determine variables associated with increased costs. Extreme cost was defined as the top 20th percentile of expenditure, analyzed with logistic regression and expressed as Odds Ratios (OR). Results A total of 2298 urethroplasties were recorded in NIS over the study period. The median (interquartile range) calculated costs was $7321 ($5677–$10000). Patients with multiple comorbid conditions were associated with extreme costs (OR 1.56 95% CI 1.19–2.04, p=0.02) compared to patients with no comorbid disease. Inpatient complications raised the odds of extreme costs OR 3.2 CI 2.14–4.75, p<0.001). Graft urethroplasties were associated with extreme costs (OR 1.78 95% CI 1.2–2.64, p=0.005). Variation in patient age, race, hospital region, bed size, teaching status, payer type, and volume of urethroplasty cases were not associated with extremes of cost. Conclusion Cost variation for perioperative inpatient urethroplasty procedures is dependent on preoperative patient comorbidities, postoperative complications and surgical complexity related to graft usage. Procedural cost and cost variation are critical for understanding which aspects of care have the greatest impact on cost. PMID:27107626

Quality versus quantity: The complexities of quality of life determinations for neonatal nurses.

PubMed

Green, Janet; Darbyshire, Philip; Adams, Anne; Jackson, Debra

2017-11-01

The ability to save the life of an extremely premature baby has increased substantially over the last decade. This survival, however, can be associated with unfavourable outcomes for both baby and family. Questions are now being asked about quality of life for survivors of extreme prematurity. Quality of life is rightly deemed to be an important consideration in high technology neonatal care; yet, it is notoriously difficult to determine or predict. How does one define and operationalise what is considered to be in the best interest of a surviving extremely premature baby, especially when the full extent of the outcomes might not be known for several years? The research investigates the caregiving dilemmas often faced by neonatal nurses when caring for extremely premature babies. This article explores the issues arising for neonatal nurses when they considered the philosophical and ethical questions about quality of life in babies ≤24 weeks gestation. Data were collected via a questionnaire to Australian neonatal nurses and semi-structured interviews with 24 neonatal nurses in New South Wales, Australia. Ethical considerations: Ethical processes and procedures have been adhered to by the researchers. A qualitative approach was used to analyse the data. The theme 'difficult choices' was generated which comprised three sub-themes: 'damaged through survival', 'the importance of the brain' and 'families are important'. The results show that neonatal nurses believed that quality of life was an important consideration; yet they experienced significant inner conflict and uncertainty when asked to define or suggest specific elements of quality of life, or to suggest how it might be determined. It was even more difficult for the nurses to say when an extremely premature baby's life possessed quality. Their previous clinical and personal experiences led the nurses to believe that the quality of the family's life was important, and possibly more so than the quality of life of the surviving baby. This finding contrasts markedly with much of the existing literature in this field. Quality of life for extremely premature babies was an important consideration for neonatal nurses; however, they experienced difficulty deciding how to operationalise such considerations in their everyday clinical practice.

Partnering with law enforcement to deliver good public health: the experience of the HIV/AIDS Asia regional program.

PubMed

Sharma, Mukta; Chatterjee, Anindya

2012-07-09

In the South-East Asia region, the drug control and supply reduction agenda is of high political importance. A multitude of law enforcement agencies are engaged in this work. Nationwide campaigns such as the "Strike- Hard" campaign in China or the "war on drugs" in Thailand dominate the landscape. Viet Nam's response to drug use has historically focused on deterrence through punishment and supply-side measures. This policy environment is further complicated by lack of evidence-based drug dependence treatment in several settings. The public health consequences of this approach have been extremely serious, with some of the highest documented prevalence of preventable blood-borne viral infections, including HIV, and hepatitis B and C. The wider socioeconomic consequences of this have been borne by families, communities and the governments themselves.The HIV/AIDS Asia Regional Program (HAARP) aims to stop the spread of HIV associated with drug use in South-East Asia and parts of southern China. HAARP works across five countries (Cambodia, China Burma, Laos, Viet Nam) chiefly through the Ministries of Health and Social Affairs, National Drug Control Agencies, and Public Security sectors, including prisons. HAARP has also engaged with UN agencies and a wide range of civil society organisations, including organisations of people who use drugs, to ensure their meaningful involvement in matters that directly affect them. We describe the experience of HAARP in implementing a large-scale harm reduction programme in the Sub-Mekong Region. HAARP chose to direct its efforts in three main areas: supporting an enabling environment for effective harm reduction policies, building core capacity among national health and law enforcement agencies, and supporting "universal access" goals by making effective, high-coverage services available to injecting drug users and their partners.The activities supported by HAARP are humble yet important steps. However, a much higher political-level dialogue is needed. The current huge gap of human rights standards in drug control practices also needs to be bridged immediately. Public health that embraces a rights-based approach must be given its fair share of policy space, budget and influence.

Partnering with law enforcement to deliver good public health: the experience of the HIV/AIDS Asia regional program

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

In the South-East Asia region, the drug control and supply reduction agenda is of high political importance. A multitude of law enforcement agencies are engaged in this work. Nationwide campaigns such as the “Strike- Hard” campaign in China or the “war on drugs” in Thailand dominate the landscape. Viet Nam’s response to drug use has historically focused on deterrence through punishment and supply-side measures. This policy environment is further complicated by lack of evidence-based drug dependence treatment in several settings. The public health consequences of this approach have been extremely serious, with some of the highest documented prevalence of preventable blood-borne viral infections, including HIV, and hepatitis B and C. The wider socioeconomic consequences of this have been borne by families, communities and the governments themselves. The HIV/AIDS Asia Regional Program (HAARP) aims to stop the spread of HIV associated with drug use in South-East Asia and parts of southern China. HAARP works across five countries (Cambodia, China Burma, Laos, Viet Nam) chiefly through the Ministries of Health and Social Affairs, National Drug Control Agencies, and Public Security sectors, including prisons. HAARP has also engaged with UN agencies and a wide range of civil society organisations, including organisations of people who use drugs, to ensure their meaningful involvement in matters that directly affect them. We describe the experience of HAARP in implementing a large-scale harm reduction programme in the Sub-Mekong Region. HAARP chose to direct its efforts in three main areas: supporting an enabling environment for effective harm reduction policies, building core capacity among national health and law enforcement agencies, and supporting “universal access” goals by making effective, high-coverage services available to injecting drug users and their partners. The activities supported by HAARP are humble yet important steps. However, a much higher political-level dialogue is needed. The current huge gap of human rights standards in drug control practices also needs to be bridged immediately. Public health that embraces a rights-based approach must be given its fair share of policy space, budget and influence. PMID:22769065

How issue frames shape beliefs about the importance of climate change policy across ideological and partisan groups

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

We use an experiment to examine whether the way in which climate change is framed affects individuals’ beliefs about its importance as a policy issue. We employ frames that emphasize national security, human rights, and environmental importance about the consequences of climate change. We find no evidence that issue frames have an overall effect on opinions about the importance of climate change policy. We do find some evidence that the effect of issue frames varies across ideological and partisan groups. Most notably, issue frames can lead Republicans and those on the political right to view climate change policy as less important. We conclude by discussing our findings relative to extant literature and considering the implications of our findings for those who seek to address the issue of climate change. PMID:28727842

How issue frames shape beliefs about the importance of climate change policy across ideological and partisan groups.

PubMed

Singh, Shane P; Swanson, Meili

2017-01-01

We use an experiment to examine whether the way in which climate change is framed affects individuals' beliefs about its importance as a policy issue. We employ frames that emphasize national security, human rights, and environmental importance about the consequences of climate change. We find no evidence that issue frames have an overall effect on opinions about the importance of climate change policy. We do find some evidence that the effect of issue frames varies across ideological and partisan groups. Most notably, issue frames can lead Republicans and those on the political right to view climate change policy as less important. We conclude by discussing our findings relative to extant literature and considering the implications of our findings for those who seek to address the issue of climate change.

Population Policy, 1984.

PubMed

1988-01-01

This summary of Hungary's Population Policy of 1984 states that the primary objectives of the policy are 1) reducing the speed of population decline, 2) slowing population growth and achieving a more favorable age distribution, and 3) avoiding the emergence of new major peaks in birth numbers. This new policy gives equal importance to factors which influence fertility and those which influence mortality. The need to integrate population policy into socioeconomic planning is also reflected in the formal time frames offered by the policy. The policy stresses the importance of education and communication to influence public attitudes towards healthy lifestyles and family life. The need for demographic research is recognized as is the importance of public opinion research in developing appropriate actions to meet the stated goals. Instead of advocating a desired family size, the new policy seeks to establish conditions which make it easier for a family to achieve its desired fertility; for example, establishing a maternity fee as a fixed proportion of a mother's previous income for mothers who stay at home to raise their children until a certain age. The development of these measures depends upon analysis of labor market policies, the national budget, and the fertility of age cohorts of women.

Examining personal values in extreme environment contexts: Revisiting the question of generalizability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, N.; Sandal, G. M.; Leon, G. R.; Kjærgaard, A.

2017-08-01

Land-based extreme environments (e.g. polar expeditions, Antarctic research stations, confinement chambers) have often been used as analog settings for spaceflight. These settings share similarities with the conditions experienced during space missions, including confinement, isolation and limited possibilities for evacuation. To determine the utility of analog settings for understanding human spaceflight, researchers have examined the extent to which the individual characteristics (e.g., personality) of people operating in extreme environments can be generalized across contexts (Sandal, 2000) [1]. Building on previous work, and utilising new and pre-existing data, the present study examined the extent to which personal value motives could be generalized across extreme environments. Four populations were assessed; mountaineers (N =59), military personnel (N = 25), Antarctic over-winterers (N = 21) and Mars simulation participants (N = 12). All participants completed the Portrait Values Questionnaire (PVQ; Schwartz; 2) capturing information on 10 personal values. Rank scores suggest that all groups identified Self-direction, Stimulation, Universalism and Benevolence as important values and acknowledged Power and Tradition as being low priorities. Results from difference testing suggest the extreme environment groups were most comparable on Self-direction, Stimulation, Benevolence, Tradition and Security. There were significant between-group differences on five of the ten values. Overall, findings pinpointed specific values that may be important for functioning in challenging environments. However, the differences that emerged on certain values highlight the importance of considering the specific population when comparing results across extreme settings. We recommend that further research examine the impact of personal value motives on indicators of adjustment, group working, and performance. Information from such studies could then be used to aid selection and training processes for personnel operating in extreme settings, and in space.

European Union energy policy integration: A case of European Commission policy entrepreneurship and increasing supranationalism.

PubMed

Maltby, Tomas

2013-04-01

Focusing on gas, this article explores the role of the European Commission in the process of European Union energy security policy development, and the extent to which the policy area is becoming increasingly supranational. Situating the article within the literature on agenda-setting and framing, it is argued that a policy window was opened as a result of: enlargement to include more energy import dependent states, a trend of increasing energy imports and prices, and gas supply disruptions. From the mid-2000s, the Commission contributed to a shift in political norms, successfully framing import dependency as a problem requiring an EU-level solution, based on the institution's pre-existing preferences for a diversified energy supply and internal energy market. Whilst Member States retain significant sovereignty, the Commission has achieved since 2006 creeping competencies in the internal, and to a lesser extent external, dimensions of EU energy policy.

European Union energy policy integration: A case of European Commission policy entrepreneurship and increasing supranationalism

PubMed Central

Maltby, Tomas

2013-01-01

Focusing on gas, this article explores the role of the European Commission in the process of European Union energy security policy development, and the extent to which the policy area is becoming increasingly supranational. Situating the article within the literature on agenda-setting and framing, it is argued that a policy window was opened as a result of: enlargement to include more energy import dependent states, a trend of increasing energy imports and prices, and gas supply disruptions. From the mid-2000s, the Commission contributed to a shift in political norms, successfully framing import dependency as a problem requiring an EU-level solution, based on the institution’s pre-existing preferences for a diversified energy supply and internal energy market. Whilst Member States retain significant sovereignty, the Commission has achieved since 2006 creeping competencies in the internal, and to a lesser extent external, dimensions of EU energy policy. PMID:24926115

Adjusting skewness and maximum 0.5 hour intensity in CLIGEN to improve extreme event and sub-daily intensity generation for assessing climate change impacts

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Both measured data and GCM/RCM projections show an general increasing trend in extreme rainfall events as temperature rises in US. Proper simulation of extreme events is particularly important for assessing climate change impacts on soil erosion and hydrology. The objective of this paper is to fin...

Importance of social relationships in the association between sleep duration and cognitive function: data from community-dwelling older Singaporeans.

PubMed

Cheng, Grand H-L; Chan, Angelique; Lo, June C

2017-06-15

Aging is accompanied by cognitive decline that is escalated in older adults reporting extreme sleep duration. Social relationships can influence health outcomes and thus may qualify the association between sleep duration and cognitive function. The present study examines the moderating effects of marital status, household size, and social network with friends and relatives on the sleep-cognition association among older adults. Data (N = 4,169) came from the Social Isolation, Health, and Lifestyles Survey, a nationally representative survey of community-dwelling older Singaporeans (≥ 60 years). Sleep duration and social relationships were self-reported. Cognitive function was assessed with the Short Portable Mental Status Questionnaire. Regression analysis revealed that the inverted U-shaped association between sleep duration and cognitive function was less profound among older adults who were married (vs. unmarried) and those who had stronger (vs. weaker) social networks. In contrast, it was more prominent among individuals who had more (vs. fewer) household members. Being married and having stronger social networks may buffer against the negative cognitive impact of extreme sleep duration. But larger household size might imply more stress for older persons, and therefore strengthen the sleep duration-cognitive function association. We discuss the potential biological underpinnings and the policy implications of the findings. Although our findings are based on a large sample, replication studies using objective measures of sleep duration and other cognitive measures are needed.

Empirical evidence of child poverty and deprivation in Nigeria.

PubMed

Ogwumike, Fidelis O; Ozughalu, Uche M

2018-03-01

Development economists and policy makers have in recent times focused attention on child poverty as a crucial aspect of poverty. The importance of the analysis of child poverty partly lies in the fact that children are the most vulnerable group in every society. This study used two poverty lines and the Foster-Greer-Thorbecke index to analyze extreme and overall child poverty headcount, depth and severity in Nigeria. The study also used the headcount ratio to analyze the extent of child deprivation in education, health, nutrition, child protection, water and sanitation. The study was based on the 2010 Harmonized Nigeria Living Standard Survey (HNLSS) and the 2011 Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey (MICS), obtained from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), Abuja, Nigeria. The study revealed that 23.22% of children in Nigeria were in extreme child poverty while 70.31% of children in the country were in overall child poverty. The study further showed that there was pronounced child deprivation in education, health, nutrition, child protection, water and sanitation. Both child poverty and child deprivation were more pronounced in the rural sector than in the urban sector and in Northern Nigeria than in Southern Nigeria. Therefore, the Nigerian government should take adequate steps to eradicate child poverty and obliterate all forms of child deprivation in Nigeria - particularly deprivation in basic needs. In taking such steps, more attention should be focused on rural areas and Northern Nigeria. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Rival framings: A framework for discovering how problem formulation uncertainties shape risk management trade-offs in water resources systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quinn, J. D.; Reed, P. M.; Giuliani, M.; Castelletti, A.

2017-08-01

Managing water resources systems requires coordinated operation of system infrastructure to mitigate the impacts of hydrologic extremes while balancing conflicting multisectoral demands. Traditionally, recommended management strategies are derived by optimizing system operations under a single problem framing that is assumed to accurately represent the system objectives, tacitly ignoring the myriad of effects that could arise from simplifications and mathematical assumptions made when formulating the problem. This study illustrates the benefits of a rival framings framework in which analysts instead interrogate multiple competing hypotheses of how complex water management problems should be formulated. Analyzing rival framings helps discover unintended consequences resulting from inherent biases of alternative problem formulations. We illustrate this on the monsoonal Red River basin in Vietnam by optimizing operations of the system's four largest reservoirs under several different multiobjective problem framings. In each rival framing, we specify different quantitative representations of the system's objectives related to hydropower production, agricultural water supply, and flood protection of the capital city of Hanoi. We find that some formulations result in counterintuitive behavior. In particular, policies designed to minimize expected flood damages inadvertently increase the risk of catastrophic flood events in favor of hydropower production, while min-max objectives commonly used in robust optimization provide poor representations of system tradeoffs due to their instability. This study highlights the importance of carefully formulating and evaluating alternative mathematical abstractions of stakeholder objectives describing the multisectoral water demands and risks associated with hydrologic extremes.

Job satisfaction and its modeling among township health center employees: a quantitative study in poor rural China.

PubMed

Liu, Jun A; Wang, Qi; Lu, Zu X

2010-05-10

Job satisfaction is important to staff management of township health centers (THCs), as it is associated with organizational performance, quality of care and employee retention. The purpose of this study was to measure job satisfaction level of THC employees in poor rural China and to identify relevant features in order to provide policy advice on human resource development of health service institutions in poor regions. A self-completion questionnaire was used to assess the job satisfaction and relevant features (response rate: 90.5%) among 172 employees (i.e., clinic doctors, medico-technical workers and public health workers) of 17 THCs in Anhui and Xinjiang provinces of China. The study covered a time period of two months in 2007. The mean staff job satisfaction scored 83.3, which was in the category of "somewhat satisfied" on a scale ranging from 0 (extremely dissatisfied) to 100 (extremely satisfied) by employing Likert's transformation formula. Exploratory factor analysis (EFA) revealed eight domains involved in modeling of job satisfaction, among which, the caregivers were more satisfied with job significance (88.2), job competency (87.9) and teamwork (87.7), as compared with work reward (72.9) and working conditions (79.7). Mean job satisfaction in Xinjiang (89.7) was higher than that in Anhui (75.5). Employees of THCs have moderate job satisfactions in poor areas, which need to be raised further by improving their working conditions and reward.

Portrait of a pragmatic conservative: Senator James A. McClure of Idaho and the politics of United States energy and Middle Eastern affairs, 1967--1990

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woods-Davis, Wilma

This dissertation examines the political career of Senator James A. McClure as it relates to United States energy policy and Middle Eastern affairs, 1967-1990 and within the context of the modern (post-World War II) conservative movement. A pragmatic conservative, McClure sought a balance between the extremes of issues, especially as they related to energy and United States foreign policy toward the Arab-Israeli conflict in the Middle East. More often than not, this quiet senator from Idaho was the voice of reason and moderation, carefully analyzing all sides of the issue before submitting his views on the subject. His approach to energy policy represents his conservative expression of policy, while his approach to the Arab-Israeli conflict in the Middle East demonstrates his moderation, reason, and pragmatism. He called for a national energy plan that would promote domestic production of natural energy resources, energy conservation, and peace in the Middle East. He early warned that if the United States did not develop a comprehensive energy policy, the nation would soon face energy shortages. His cautionary statements went unnoticed until the first energy crisis in 1973 and 1974. Although McClure did not support reliance on imported oil to meet energy demand, he did advocate a change in direction in foreign policy. The United States must take a more even-handed approach to the Arab-Israeli conflict and consider the Arab position too in the historic debate. He continually urged a pro-Israeli congress to rethink its policies in this area. In addition to his senate duties, McClure acted as an unofficial goodwill ambassador to many of the Arab leaders in the Middle East. He made at least nine trips to the Middle East to discuss issues of energy, trade, peace, and war. He developed a working rapport with some Arab leaders, and did much to enhance the United States image in the region. He did this at a time in American history when Congress and the public were slow to consider the Arab position. While some individuals thought McClure pro-Arab, or even anti-Semitic, he was not. He maintained throughout his career that he was neither pro-Arab, nor pro-Israeli, but pro-United States. Senator James A. McClure offered the voice of moderation, pragmatism, and balance in contentious issues both national and international. His reasoned approach to politics provides one model that politicians today could imitate.

Evaluation of Potential Climate Change Impacts on Particle Movement in Open Channel Flow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, E.; Tsai, C.

2014-12-01

It is important to develop a forecast model to predict the trajectory of sediment particles when extreme flow events occur. In extreme flow environments, the stochastic jump diffusion particle tracking model (SJD-PTM) can be used to model the movement of sediment particles in response to extreme events. This proposed SJD-PTM can be separated into three main parts — a drift motion, a turbulence term and a jump term due to random occurrences of extreme flow events. The study is intended to modify the jump term, which models the abrupt changes of particle position in the extreme flow environments. The frequency of extreme flow occurrences might change due to many uncertain factors such as climate change. The study attempts to use the concept of the logistic regression and the parameter of odds ratio, namely the trend magnitude to investigate the frequency change of extreme flow event occurrences and its impact on sediment particle movement. With the SJD-PTM, the ensemble mean and variance of particle trajectory can be quantified via simulations. The results show that by taking the effect of the trend magnitude into consideration, the particle position and its uncertainty may undergo a significant increase. Such findings will have many important implications to the environmental and hydraulic engineering design and planning. For instance, when the frequency of the occurrence of flow events with higher extremity increases, particles can travel further and faster downstream. It is observed that flow events with higher extremity can induce a higher degree of entrainment and particle resuspension, and consequently more significant bed and bank erosion.

Management Matters. Selection Policies

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pappas, Marjorie L.

2003-01-01

One of the most important policy documents for a school library media center is the selection policy or the collection development policy. A well-developed selection policy provides a rationale for the selection decisions made by the school library media specialist. A selection policy represents the criteria against which a challenged book is…

Impacts of crop insurance on water withdrawals for irrigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deryugina, Tatyana; Konar, Megan

2017-12-01

Agricultural production remains particularly vulnerable to weather fluctuations and extreme events, such as droughts, floods, and heat waves. Crop insurance is a risk management tool developed to mitigate some of this weather risk and protect farmer income in times of poor production. However, crop insurance may have unintended consequences for water resources sustainability, as the vast majority of freshwater withdrawals go to agriculture. The causal impact of crop insurance on water use in agriculture remains poorly understood. Here, we determine the empirical relationship between crop insurance and irrigation water withdrawals in the United States. Importantly, we use an instrumental variables approach to establish causality. Our methodology exploits a major policy change in the crop insurance system - the 1994 Federal Crop Insurance Reform Act - which imposed crop insurance requirements on farmers. We find that a 1% increase in insured crop acreage leads to a 0.223% increase in irrigation withdrawals, with most coming from groundwater aquifers. We identify farmers growing more groundwater-fed cotton as an important mechanism contributing to increased withdrawals. A 1% increase in insured crop acreage leads to a 0.624% increase in cotton acreage, or 95,602 acres. These results demonstrate that crop insurance causally leads to more irrigation withdrawals. More broadly, this work underscores the importance of determining causality in the water-food nexus as we endeavor to achieve global food security and water resources sustainability.

The argument for pharmaceutical policy.

PubMed

Traulsen, Janine Morgall; Almarsdóttir, Anna Birna

2005-02-01

Pharmaceutical policy is a global concern. It has become a hot political topic in most countries--developed as well as developing--and can be found on the agenda of international organizations such as WHO, OECD, EU, WTO and even the World Bank. Pharmaceutical policy affects everyone in the world of pharmacy and it is therefore imperative that it be understood, discussed and debated within the pharmacy profession and included in the curriculum of schools of pharmacy. This, the first article in a series, argues for the importance of the academic discipline of pharmaceutical policy analysis and the involvement of pharmacists in this endeavour. The aim of the authors is to stimulate an informed and critical appreciation of this field. The authors begin with an introduction to the field of pharmaceutical policy, introducing several important concepts and current trends including: medicines regulation; how pharmaceutical policy is made; pharmaceutical policy as a dynamic process; and the new public health as a global issue. The article ends with a short description of the remaining five articles in the series which will deal with important aspects of pharmaceutical policy. The topics include: economic pressures on health care systems; drug utilization from the clinical viewpoint (rational use of medicines); the impact of pharmaceutical policy on patients and the patient impact on pharmaceutical policy; the professional perspective; and finally the last article which deals with studying and evaluating pharmaceutical policy.

Weak linkage between the heaviest rainfall and tallest storms.

PubMed

Hamada, Atsushi; Takayabu, Yukari N; Liu, Chuntao; Zipser, Edward J

2015-02-24

Conventionally, the heaviest rainfall has been linked to the tallest, most intense convective storms. However, the global picture of the linkage between extreme rainfall and convection remains unclear. Here we analyse an 11-year record of spaceborne precipitation radar observations and establish that a relatively small fraction of extreme convective events produces extreme rainfall rates in any region of the tropics and subtropics. Robust differences between extreme rainfall and convective events are found in the rainfall characteristics and environmental conditions, irrespective of region; most extreme rainfall events are characterized by less intense convection with intense radar echoes not extending to extremely high altitudes. Rainfall characteristics and environmental conditions both indicate the importance of warm-rain processes in producing extreme rainfall rates. Our results demonstrate that, even in regions where severe convective storms are representative extreme weather events, the heaviest rainfall events are mostly associated with less intense convection.

What criteria guide national entrepreneurs' policy decisions on user fee removal for maternal health care services? Use of a best-worst scaling choice experiment in West Africa.

PubMed

Torbica, Aleksandra; De Allegri, Manuela; Belemsaga, Danielle; Medina-Lara, Antonieta; Ridde, Valery

2014-10-01

Several countries in sub-Saharan Africa have implemented policies to remove or reduce user fees. Our aim was to identify criteria guiding such decisions among national policy entrepreneurs, those who link up problem definition, solution development and political processes. We administered a best-worst scaling (BWS) experiment to 89 policy entrepreneurs, asking them to identify the most and the least important criteria on a series of predefined sets. Sets were compiled using a Balance Incomplete Block Design which generated random combinations of all 11 criteria included in the experiment. In turn, those had emerged from a prior set of focus group discussions organized among policy entrepreneurs. Ordered logit models were used to investigate the value of single criteria as well as heterogeneity of preferences. Political commitment was identified as the most important criterion guiding policy decisions on user fee abolition or reduction to the overall sample, but particularly so for more experienced respondents aged over 50 years. International pressure and donor money were identified as least important while equity and institutional capacity were deemed of relatively little importance. Respondents more involved in advising on policy than on formulating policy rated economic issues such as financial sustainability and cost-effectiveness as less important. It is feasible to apply BWS experiments in low-income countries, although whether the technique can be adjusted to elicit preferences among non-literate respondents in these settings is unclear. © The Author(s) 2014 Reprints and permissions: sagepub.co.uk/journalsPermissions.nav.

Occurrence of nitro- and oxy-PAHs in agricultural soils in eastern China and excess lifetime cancer risks from human exposure through soil ingestion.

PubMed

Sun, Zhe; Zhu, Ying; Zhuo, Shaojie; Liu, Weiping; Zeng, Eddy Y; Wang, Xilong; Xing, Baoshan; Tao, Shu

2017-11-01

The quality of agricultural soil is vital to human health, however soil contamination is a severe problem in China. Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) have been found to be among the major soil contaminants in China. PAH derivatives could be more toxic but their measurements in soils are extremely limited. This study reports levels, spatial distributions and compositions of 11 nitrated (nPAHs) and 4 oxygenated PAHs (oPAHs) in agricultural soils covering 26 provinces in eastern China to fill the data gap. The excess lifetime cancer risk (ELCR) from the exposure to them in addition to 21 parent PAHs (pPAHs) via soil ingestion has been estimated. The mean concentration of ∑nPAHs and ∑oPAHs in agricultural soils is 50±45μg/kg and 9±8μg/kg respectively. Both ∑nPAHs and ∑oPAHs follow a similar spatial distribution pattern with elevated concentrations found in Liaoning, Shanxi, Henan and Guizhou. However if taking account of pPAHs, the high ELCR by soil ingestion is estimated for Shanxi, Zhejiang, Liaoning, Jiangsu and Hubei. The maximum ELCR is estimated at ca.10 -5 by both deterministic and probabilistic studies with moderate toxic equivalent factors (TEFs). If maximum TEFs available are applied, there is a 0.2% probability that the ELCR will exceed 10 -4 in the areas covered. There is a great chance to underestimate the ELCR via soil ingestion for some regions if only the 16 priority PAHs in agricultural soils are considered. The early life exposure and burden are considered extremely important to ELCR. Emission sources are qualitatively predicted and for areas with higher ELCR such as Shanxi and Liaoning, new loadings of PAHs and derivatives are identified. This is the first large scale study on nPAHs and oPAHs contamination levels in agricultural soils in China. The risk assessment based on this underpins the policy making and is valuable for both scientists and policy makers. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An Examination of Two Policy Networks Involved in Advancing Smokefree Policy Initiatives.

PubMed

Moreland-Russell, Sarah; Carothers, Bobbi J

2015-09-08

This study examines smokefree policy networks in two cities—Kansas City and St. Louis, Missouri—one that was successful in achieving widespread policy success, and one that was not. Descriptive social network analyses and visual network mapping were used to compare importance and contact relationships among actors involved in the smokefree policy initiatives. In Kansas City, where policy adoption was achieved, there was a higher level of connectivity among members, with network members being in contact with an average of more than five people, compared to just over two people for the St. Louis network. For both cities, despite being recognized as important, politicians were in contact with the fewest number of people. Results highlight the critical need to actively engage a variety of stakeholders when attempting city wide public health policy change. As evident by the success in smokefree policy adoption throughout Kansas City compared to St. Louis, closer linkages and continued communication among stakeholders including the media, coalitions, public health agencies, policymakers, and other partners are essential if we are to advance and broaden the impact of public health policy. Results indicate that the presence of champions, or those that play leadership roles in actively promoting policy by linking individuals and organizations, play an important role in advancing public health policy. Those working in public health should examine their level of engagement with the policy process and implement strategies for improving that engagement through relationship building and ongoing interactions with a variety of stakeholders, including policymakers.

Controlling extreme events on complex networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Yu-Zhong; Huang, Zi-Gang; Lai, Ying-Cheng

2014-08-01

Extreme events, a type of collective behavior in complex networked dynamical systems, often can have catastrophic consequences. To develop effective strategies to control extreme events is of fundamental importance and practical interest. Utilizing transportation dynamics on complex networks as a prototypical setting, we find that making the network ``mobile'' can effectively suppress extreme events. A striking, resonance-like phenomenon is uncovered, where an optimal degree of mobility exists for which the probability of extreme events is minimized. We derive an analytic theory to understand the mechanism of control at a detailed and quantitative level, and validate the theory numerically. Implications of our finding to current areas such as cybersecurity are discussed.

The Importance of Visit Notes on Patient Portals for Engaging Less Educated or Nonwhite Patients: Survey Study

PubMed Central

Gerard, Macda; Chimowitz, Hannah; Fossa, Alan; Bourgeois, Fabienne; Fernandez, Leonor

2018-01-01

Background OpenNotes, a national initiative to share clinicians’ visit notes with patients, can improve patient engagement, but effects on vulnerable populations are not known very well. Objective Our aim is to examine the importance of visit notes to nonwhite and less educated patients. Methods Patients at an urban academic medical center with an active patient portal account and ≥1 available ambulatory visit note over the prior year were surveyed during June 2016 until September 2016. The survey was designed with patients and families and assessed importance of reading notes (scale 0-10) for (1) understanding health conditions, (2) feeling informed about care, (3) understanding the provider’s thought process, (4) remembering the plan of care, and (5) making decisions about care. We compared the proportion of patients reporting 9-10 (extremely important) for each item stratified by education level, race/ethnicity, and self-reported health. Principal component analysis and correlation measures supported a summary score for the 5 items (Cronbach alpha=.93). We examined factors associated with rating notes as extremely important to engage in care using logistic regression. Results Of 24,722 patients, 6913 (27.96%) completed the survey. The majority (6736/6913, 97.44%) read at least one note. Among note readers, 74.0% (727/982) of patients with ≤high school education, 70.7% (130/184) of black patients, and 69.9% (153/219) of Hispanic/Latino patients reported that notes are extremely important to feel informed about their care. The majority of less educated and nonwhite patients reported notes as extremely important to remember the care plan (62.4%, 613/982 ≤high school education; 62.0%, 114/184 black patients; and 61.6%, 135/219 Hispanic/Latino patients) and to make care decisions (62.3%, 612/982; 59.8%, 110/184; and 58.5%, 128/219, respectively, and P<.003 for all comparisons to more educated and white patients, respectively). Among patients with the poorest self-reported health, 65.9% (499/757) found notes extremely important to be informed and to understand the provider. On multivariable modeling, less educated patients were nearly three times as likely to report notes were extremely important to engage in care compared with the most educated patients (odds ratio [OR] 2.9, 95% CI 2.4-3.3). Nonwhite patients were twice as likely to report the same compared with white patients (OR 2.0, 95% CI 1.5-2.7 [black] and OR 2.2, 95% CI 1.6-2.9 [Hispanic/Latino and Asian], P<.001 for each comparison). Healthier patients, women, older patients, and those who read more notes were more likely to find notes extremely important to engage in care. Conclusions Less educated and nonwhite patients using the portal each assigned higher importance to reading notes for several health behaviors than highly educated and white patients, and may find transparent notes especially valuable for understanding their health and engaging in their care. Facilitating access to notes may improve engagement in health care for some vulnerable populations who have historically been more challenging to reach. PMID:29793900

Impacts Of Climate Change On Ecosystems Management In Africa: An Assessment Of Disaster Risk Management And Adaptation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ndebele-Murisa, M. R.

2015-12-01

This paper is a synthesis of eight studies which demonstrate the interface between disaster risk management (DRM) and adaptation. The studies; conducted from November 2011 to July 2012 included diverse ecosystems from forests, coastlines, rural areas to a lake region and showed that climate change/variability are major factors among other factors such as deforestation and land degradation, unsustainable land use practices, overharvesting of natural products and invasive species encroachment that are causing changes in ecosystems. The most common extreme events reported included shifts in and shorter rainfall seasons, extended droughts, increased temperatures, extreme heat, heavy rainfall, flooding, inundation, strong winds and sea level rises. As a result of these climate phenomena, adverse impacts on ecosystems and communities were reported as biodiversity loss, reduced fish catch, reduced water for forests/agriculture/consumption, increased rough waves, coastal erosion/sediment deposition and lastly land/mud slides in order of commonality. In response to these impacts communities are practicing coping and adaptation strategies but there is a huge gap between proper DRM and adaptation. This is mainly because the adaptation is practiced as an aftermath with very little effort propelled towards proactive DRM or preparedness. In addition, national level policies are archaic and do not address the current environmental changes. This was demonstrated in Togo where wood energy potential is deteriorating at an unprecedented rate but is projected to increase between 6.4% and 101% in the near and far future if the national forest action plans are implemented; preventing an energy crisis in the country. This shows that appropriate legal and policy frameworks and well planned responses to projected extreme events and climate changes are crucial in order to prevent disasters and to achieve sustainable utilisation of resources in the continent.

78 FR 13876 - Content Policy

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-03-01

... EXPORT-IMPORT BANK OF THE UNITED STATES Content Policy This notice is to inform the public that the Export-Import Bank of the United States is in the process of reviewing its content policy. A list of the questions and issues that the Bank is addressing can be accessed here: http://www.exim.gov/generalbankpolicies/content/2013-Content-Review.cfm...

China on the Mekong: Legitimacy Imperatives and Policy Case Studies

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-12-01

1  B.  IMPORTANCE ................................................................................................1  C.  PROBLEMS...gross domestic product GMS Greater Mekong Subregion HDI human development indicators MRC Mekong River Commission MOU memoranda of understanding MPS...home affect China’s policies along the Mekong River? B. IMPORTANCE A careful investigation of PRC policies on the Mekong River will contribute to a

Household Location and Schools in Metropolitan Areas with Heterogeneous Suburbs; Tiebout, Alonso, and Government Policy. NBER Working Paper No. 15915

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hanushek, Eric A.; Yilmaz, Kuzey

2010-01-01

An important element in considering school finance policies is that households are not passive but instead respond to policies. Household behavior is especially important in considering how households affect the spatial structure of metropolitan areas where different jurisdictions incorporate bundles of advantages and disadvantages. This paper…

The world at 1.5°C: Understanding its regional dimensions and driving processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seneviratne, S. I.; Wartenburger, R.; Vogel, M.; Hirsch, A.; Guillod, B.; Donat, M.; Pitman, A. J.; Davin, E.; Greve, P.; Hirschi, M.

2017-12-01

This presentation reviews the available evidence regarding projected regional changes in climate extremes at 1.5°C vs higher levels of warming based on recent analyses (Seneviratne et al. 2016; Wartenburger et al., submitted; Greve et al., submitted). In several regions, significant differences in the occurrence of climate extremes can be identified already for half a degree of warming when assessing changes at 1.5°C vs 2°C global warming. An important feature is the much stronger warming of hot extremes in several continental regions compared to the global mean warming, which implies that temperature extremes can warm regionally by much more than 1.5°C, even if global temperature warming is stabilized at this level (e.g. up to 6°C for certain models in the Arctic). This feature is due to a combination of feedbacks and internal climate variability. We highlight in particular the importance of land-climate feedbacks for projected changes in hot extremes in mid-latitude regions (Vogel et al. 2017). Because of the strong effects of land processes on regional changes in temperature extremes, changes in land surface properties, including land use changes, are found to be particularly important for projections in low-emissions scenarios (Hirsch et al. 2017; Guillod et al., submitted). References: Greve, P., et al.: Regional scaling of annual mean precipitation and water availability with global temperature change. Submitted. Guillod, B.P., et al.: Land use in low climate warming targets critical for hot extreme projections. Submitted. Hirsch, A.L., et al., 2017: Can climate-effective land management reduce regional warming? J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 122, 2269-2288, doi:10.1002/2016JD026125. Seneviratne, S.I., et al., 2016: Allowable CO2 emissions based on regional and impact-related climate targets. Nature, 529, 477-483, doi:10.1038/nature16542. Vogel, M.M., et al., 2017: Regional amplification of projected changes in extreme temperatures strongly controlled by soil moisture-temperature feedbacks. Geophysical Research Letters, 44(3), 1511-1519. Wartenburger, R., et al.: Changes in regional climate extremes as a function of global mean temperature: an interactive plotting framework. Geosci. Model Dev. - Submitt.,

A healthy turn in urban climate change policies; European city workshop proposes health indicators as policy integrators.

PubMed

Keune, Hans; Ludlow, David; van den Hazel, Peter; Randall, Scott; Bartonova, Alena

2012-06-28

The EU FP6 HENVINET project reviewed the potential relevance of a focus on climate change related health effects for climate change policies at the city region level. This was undertaken by means of a workshop with both scientists, city representatives from several EU-countries, representatives of EU city networks and EU-experts. In this paper we introduce some important health related climate change issues, and discuss the current city policies of the participating cities. The workshop used a backcasting format to analyse the future relevance of a health perspective, and the main benefits and challenges this would bring to urban policy making. It was concluded that health issues have an important function as indicators of success for urban climate change policies, given the extent to which climate change policies contribute to public health and as such to quality of life. Simultaneously the health perspective may function as a policy integrator in that it can combine several related policy objectives, such as environmental policies, health policies, urban planning and economic development policies, in one framework for action. Furthermore, the participants to the workshop considered public health to be of strategic importance in organizing public support for climate change policies. One important conclusion of the workshop was the view that the connection of science and policy at the city level is inadequate, and that the integration of scientific knowledge on climate change related health effects and local policy practice is in need of more attention. In conclusion, the workshop was viewed as a constructive advance in the process of integration which hopefully will lead to ongoing cooperation. The workshop had the ambition to bring together a diversity of actor perspectives for exchange of knowledge and experiences, and joint understanding as a basis for future cooperation. Next to the complementarities in experience and knowledge, the mutual critical reflection was a bonus, as ideas had the opportunity to be scrutinized by others, leading to more robustness and common ground. The structured backcasting approach was helpful in integrating all of this with one common focus, embracing diversity and complexity, and stimulating reflection and new ideas.

A healthy turn in urban climate change policies; European city workshop proposes health indicators as policy integrators

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background The EU FP6 HENVINET project reviewed the potential relevance of a focus on climate change related health effects for climate change policies at the city region level. This was undertaken by means of a workshop with both scientists, city representatives from several EU-countries, representatives of EU city networks and EU-experts. In this paper we introduce some important health related climate change issues, and discuss the current city policies of the participating cities. Methods The workshop used a backcasting format to analyse the future relevance of a health perspective, and the main benefits and challenges this would bring to urban policy making. Results It was concluded that health issues have an important function as indicators of success for urban climate change policies, given the extent to which climate change policies contribute to public health and as such to quality of life. Simultaneously the health perspective may function as a policy integrator in that it can combine several related policy objectives, such as environmental policies, health policies, urban planning and economic development policies, in one framework for action. Furthermore, the participants to the workshop considered public health to be of strategic importance in organizing public support for climate change policies. One important conclusion of the workshop was the view that the connection of science and policy at the city level is inadequate, and that the integration of scientific knowledge on climate change related health effects and local policy practice is in need of more attention. In conclusion, the workshop was viewed as a constructive advance in the process of integration which hopefully will lead to ongoing cooperation. Conclusions The workshop had the ambition to bring together a diversity of actor perspectives for exchange of knowledge and experiences, and joint understanding as a basis for future cooperation. Next to the complementarities in experience and knowledge, the mutual critical reflection was a bonus, as ideas had the opportunity to be scrutinized by others, leading to more robustness and common ground. The structured backcasting approach was helpful in integrating all of this with one common focus, embracing diversity and complexity, and stimulating reflection and new ideas. PMID:22759496

An Independent Assessment of Anthropogenic Attribution Statements for Recent Extreme Temperature and Rainfall Events

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Angélil, Oliver; Stone, Dáithí; Wehner, Michael

The annual "State of the Climate" report, published in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (BAMS), has included a supplement since 2011 composed of brief analyses of the human influence on recent major extreme weather events. There are now several dozen extreme weather events examined in these supplements, but these studies have all differed in their data sources as well as their approaches to defining the events, analyzing the events, and the consideration of the role of anthropogenic emissions. This study reexamines most of these events using a single analytical approach and a single set of climate model andmore » observational data sources. In response to recent studies recommending the importance of using multiple methods for extreme weather event attribution, results are compared from these analyses to those reported in the BAMS supplements collectively, with the aim of characterizing the degree to which the lack of a common methodological framework may or may not influence overall conclusions. Results are broadly similar to those reported earlier for extreme temperature events but disagree for a number of extreme precipitation events. Based on this, it is advised that the lack of comprehensive uncertainty analysis in recent extreme weather attribution studies is important and should be considered when interpreting results, but as yet it has not introduced a systematic bias across these studies.« less

An Independent Assessment of Anthropogenic Attribution Statements for Recent Extreme Temperature and Rainfall Events

DOE PAGES

Angélil, Oliver; Stone, Dáithí; Wehner, Michael; ...

2016-12-16

The annual "State of the Climate" report, published in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (BAMS), has included a supplement since 2011 composed of brief analyses of the human influence on recent major extreme weather events. There are now several dozen extreme weather events examined in these supplements, but these studies have all differed in their data sources as well as their approaches to defining the events, analyzing the events, and the consideration of the role of anthropogenic emissions. This study reexamines most of these events using a single analytical approach and a single set of climate model andmore » observational data sources. In response to recent studies recommending the importance of using multiple methods for extreme weather event attribution, results are compared from these analyses to those reported in the BAMS supplements collectively, with the aim of characterizing the degree to which the lack of a common methodological framework may or may not influence overall conclusions. Results are broadly similar to those reported earlier for extreme temperature events but disagree for a number of extreme precipitation events. Based on this, it is advised that the lack of comprehensive uncertainty analysis in recent extreme weather attribution studies is important and should be considered when interpreting results, but as yet it has not introduced a systematic bias across these studies.« less

Extreme weather caused by concurrent cyclone, front and thunderstorm occurrences

PubMed Central

Dowdy, Andrew J.; Catto, Jennifer L.

2017-01-01

Phenomena such as cyclones, fronts and thunderstorms can cause extreme weather in various regions throughout the world. Although these phenomena have been examined in numerous studies, they have not all been systematically examined in combination with each other, including in relation to extreme precipitation and extreme winds throughout the world. Consequently, the combined influence of these phenomena represents a substantial gap in the current understanding of the causes of extreme weather events. Here we present a systematic analysis of cyclones, fronts and thunderstorms in combination with each other, as represented by seven different types of storm combinations. Our results highlight the storm combinations that most frequently cause extreme weather in various regions of the world. The highest risk of extreme precipitation and extreme wind speeds is found to be associated with a triple storm type characterized by concurrent cyclone, front and thunderstorm occurrences. Our findings reveal new insight on the relationships between cyclones, fronts and thunderstorms and clearly demonstrate the importance of concurrent phenomena in causing extreme weather. PMID:28074909

Climate projections and extremes in dynamically downscaled CMIP5 model outputs over the Bengal delta: a quartile based bias-correction approach with new gridded data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hasan, M. Alfi; Islam, A. K. M. Saiful; Akanda, Ali Shafqat

2017-11-01

In the era of global warning, the insight of future climate and their changing extremes is critical for climate-vulnerable regions of the world. In this study, we have conducted a robust assessment of Regional Climate Model (RCM) results in a monsoon-dominated region within the new Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and the latest Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios. We have applied an advanced bias correction approach to five RCM simulations in order to project future climate and associated extremes over Bangladesh, a critically climate-vulnerable country with a complex monsoon system. We have also generated a new gridded product that performed better in capturing observed climatic extremes than existing products. The bias-correction approach provided a notable improvement in capturing the precipitation extremes as well as mean climate. The majority of projected multi-model RCMs indicate an increase of rainfall, where one model shows contrary results during the 2080s (2071-2100) era. The multi-model mean shows that nighttime temperatures will increase much faster than daytime temperatures and the average annual temperatures are projected to be as hot as present-day summer temperatures. The expected increase of precipitation and temperature over the hilly areas are higher compared to other parts of the country. Overall, the projected extremities of future rainfall are more variable than temperature. According to the majority of the models, the number of the heavy rainy days will increase in future years. The severity of summer-day temperatures will be alarming, especially over hilly regions, where winters are relatively warm. The projected rise of both precipitation and temperature extremes over the intense rainfall-prone northeastern region of the country creates a possibility of devastating flash floods with harmful impacts on agriculture. Moreover, the effect of bias-correction, as presented in probable changes of both bias-corrected and uncorrected extremes, can be considered in future policy making.

A Potentially Heteroglossic Policy Becomes Monoglossic in Context: An Ethnographic Analysis of Paraguayan Bilingual Education Policy

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mortimer, Katherine S.

2016-01-01

Ethnographic and discursive approaches to educational language policy (ELP) that explore how policy is appropriated in context are important for understanding policy success/failure in meeting goals of educational equity for language-minoritized students. This study describes how Paraguayan national policy for universal bilingual education…

The Worst of Times: Children in Extreme Poverty in the South and Nation. SEF Research and Policy Report

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Suitts, Steve

2010-01-01

The numbers of poor and low income students in the public schools of the South and nation have substantially increased during the last decade. Today a majority of the South's public school students are low income, and nationwide more than 45 percent of the public school children are also eligible for free or reduced lunches due to low family…

InterAgency Journal (Volume 2, Issue 2, Summer 2011)

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-01-01

Interagency Task Force for Irregular Warfare ( IATF -IW). It is fair to say that in prosecuting foreign policy which currently includes open warfare...With the introduction of the IATF -IW, CENTCOM is actively developing and promoting plans in conjunction with the civilian entities of government. The...opposite extreme, in the IATF - IW being the agent of the State Department. This subordination to State Department lead ensured rebuilding Iraq would

Therapeutic Sleep for Traumatic Brain Injury

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-06-01

policy or decision unless so designated by other documentation. REPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGE Form Approved OMB No. 0704-0188 Public reporting...patients develop sleep disorders, a correlation that is extremely prevalent in military personnel. Here, we have developed a paradigm to induce TBI in...lower while on day 7, the number of genes that are up- and down-regulated is increased again. Contrary to our experimental design we noted that we also

Three Thousand Futures. The Next Twenty Years for Higher Education. Final Report of the Carnegie Council on Policy Studies in Higher Education.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Carnegie Council on Policy Studies in Higher Education, Berkeley, CA.

In this look at the near future of higher education, and in light of probable declining enrollments and resources, two perspectives are given, both drawn from existing literature. The first sets forth some of the fears of higher education professionals in one possible, if extreme, scenario; the second, some of their hopes in another. Among the…

Implementing System-of-Systems Governance

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-08-01

structure, developed over the past half century, has produced some of the most advanced weaponry in the world, it has significant drawbacks . For example...over the past half century, has produced some of the most advanced weaponry in the world, it has significant drawbacks . For example, the historic...the answer. In government, diametrically opposed policies and procedures come and go, as the pendulum swings from one extreme to the other. As it

Does Mentoring Reduce Turnover and Improve Skills of New Employees? Evidence from Teachers in New York City. NBER Working Paper No. 13868

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rockoff, Jonah E.

2008-01-01

Mentoring has become an extremely popular policy for improving the retention and performance of new teachers, but we know little about its effects on teacher and student outcomes. I study the impact of mentoring in New York City, which adopted a nationally recognized mentoring program in 2004. I use detailed program data to examine the…

Nuclear Deterrence: Strong Policy is Needed for Effective Defense

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-03-24

providing anti-access to U.S. forces should conflict erupt, for example over the Taiwan sovereignty issue.29 Emerging Chinese long- range delivery systems...securing fissile material is already extremely difficult. It is quite possible that some nuclear material is unaccounted for in the world; even if banned ...Nuclear weapons are like very complicated chemical experiments, sometimes changing in unforeseen ways as metals corrode, plastics break down and

Improved Training Program for Fall Prevention of Warfighters with Lower Extremity Trauma

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-10-01

INVESTIGATOR: Kenton Kaufman, PhD, PE CONTRACTING ORGANIZATION: Mayo Clinic Rochester, MN 55905 REPORT DATE: October 2017 TYPE OF REPORT : Annual...Release; Distribution Unlimited The views, opinions and/or findings contained in this report are those of the author(s) and should not be construed...as an official Department of the Army position, policy or decision unless so designated by other documentation. REPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGE Form

Optimal dynamic remapping of parallel computations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nicol, David M.; Reynolds, Paul F., Jr.

1987-01-01

A large class of computations are characterized by a sequence of phases, with phase changes occurring unpredictably. The decision problem was considered regarding the remapping of workload to processors in a parallel computation when the utility of remapping and the future behavior of the workload is uncertain, and phases exhibit stable execution requirements during a given phase, but requirements may change radically between phases. For these problems a workload assignment generated for one phase may hinder performance during the next phase. This problem is treated formally for a probabilistic model of computation with at most two phases. The fundamental problem of balancing the expected remapping performance gain against the delay cost was addressed. Stochastic dynamic programming is used to show that the remapping decision policy minimizing the expected running time of the computation has an extremely simple structure. Because the gain may not be predictable, the performance of a heuristic policy that does not require estimnation of the gain is examined. The heuristic method's feasibility is demonstrated by its use on an adaptive fluid dynamics code on a multiprocessor. The results suggest that except in extreme cases, the remapping decision problem is essentially that of dynamically determining whether gain can be achieved by remapping after a phase change. The results also suggest that this heuristic is applicable to computations with more than two phases.

Early neurodevelopmental outcomes of extremely preterm infants.

PubMed

Rogers, Elizabeth E; Hintz, Susan R

2016-12-01

Infants born at extreme preterm gestation are at risk for both death and disability. Although rates of survival have improved for this population, and some evidence suggests a trend toward decreased neuromotor impairment over the past decades, a significant improvement in overall early neurodevelopmental outcome has not yet been realized. This review will examine the rates and types of neurodevelopmental impairment seen after extremely preterm birth, including neurosensory, motor, cognitive, and behavioral outcomes. We focus on early outcomes in the first 18-36 months of life, as the majority of large neonatal studies examining neurodevelopmental outcomes stop at this age. However, this early age is clearly just a first glimpse into lifetime outcomes; the neurodevelopmental effects of extreme prematurity may last through school age, adolescence, and beyond. Importantly, prematurity appears to be an independent risk factor for adverse development, but this population demonstrates considerable variability in the types and severity of impairments. Understanding both the nature and prevalence of neurodevelopmental impairment among extremely preterm infants is important because it can lead to targeted interventions that in turn may lead to improved outcomes. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Motivating and Facilitating Advancements in Space Weather Real-Time Data Availability: Factors, Data, and Access Methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pankratz, C. K.; Baker, D. N.; Jaynes, A. N.; Elkington, S. R.; Baltzer, T.; Sanchez, F.

2017-12-01

Society's growing reliance on complex and highly interconnected technological systems makes us increasingly vulnerable to the effects of space weather events - maybe more than for any other natural hazard. An extreme solar storm today could conceivably impact hundreds of the more than 1400 operating Earth satellites. Such an extreme storm could cause collapse of the electrical grid on continental scales. The effects on navigation, communication, and remote sensing of our home planet could be devastating to our social functioning. Thus, it is imperative that the scientific community address the question of just how severe events might become. At least as importantly, it is crucial that policy makers and public safety officials be informed by the facts on what might happen during extreme conditions. This requires essentially real-time alerts, warnings, and also forecasts of severe space weather events, which in turn demands measurements, models, and associated data products to be available via the most effective data discovery and access methods possible. Similarly, advancement in the fundamental scientific understanding of space weather processes is also vital, requiring that researchers have convenient and effective access to a wide variety of data sets and models from multiple sources. The space weather research community, as with many scientific communities, must access data from dispersed and often uncoordinated data repositories to acquire the data necessary for the analysis and modeling efforts that advance our understanding of solar influences and space physics on the Earth's environment. The Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics (LASP), as a leading institution in both producing data products and advancing the state of scientific understanding of space weather processes, is well positioned to address many of these issues. In this presentation, we will outline the motivating factors for effective space weather data access, summarize the various data and models that are available, and present methods for meeting the data management and access needs of the disparate communities who require low-latency space weather data and information.

Future changes in summer mean and extreme precipitation frequency in Japan by d4PDF regional climate simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Okada, Y.; Ishii, M.; Endo, H.; Kawase, H.; Sasaki, H.; Takayabu, I.; Watanabe, S.; Fujita, M.; Sugimoto, S.; Kawazoe, S.

2017-12-01

Precipitation in summer plays a vital role in sustaining life across East Asia, but the heavy rain that is often generated during this period can also cause serious damage. Developing a better understanding of the features and occurrence frequency of this heavy rain is an important element of disaster prevention. We investigated future changes in summer mean and extreme precipitation frequency in Japan using large ensemble dataset which simulated by the Non-Hydrostatic Regional Climate Model with a horizontal resolution of 20km (NHRCM20). This dataset called database for Policy Decision making for Future climate changes (d4PDF), which is intended to be utilized for the impact assessment studies and adaptation planning to global warming. The future climate experiments assume the global mean surface air temperature rise 2K and 4K from the pre-industrial period. We investigated using this dataset future changes of precipitation in summer over the Japanese archipelago based on observational locations. For mean precipitation in the present-day climate, the bias of the rainfall for each month is within 25% even considering all members (30 members). The bias at each location is found to increase by over 50% on the Pacific Ocean side of eastern part of Japan and interior locations of western part of Japan. The result in western part of Japan depends on the effect of the elevations in this model. The future changes in mean precipitation show a contrast between northern and southern Japan, with the north showing a slight increase but the south a decrease. The future changes in the frequency of extreme precipitation in the national average of Japan increase at 2K and 4K simulations compared with the present-day climate, respectively. The authors were supported by the Social Implementation Program on Climate Change Adaptation Technology (SI-CAT), the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science, and Technology (MEXT), Japan.

Coastal Adaptation Planning for Sea Level Rise and Extremes: A Global Model for Adaptation Decision-making at the Local Level Given Uncertain Climate Projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Turner, D.

2014-12-01

Understanding the potential economic and physical impacts of climate change on coastal resources involves evaluating a number of distinct adaptive responses. This paper presents a tool for such analysis, a spatially-disaggregated optimization model for adaptation to sea level rise (SLR) and storm surge, the Coastal Impact and Adaptation Model (CIAM). This decision-making framework fills a gap between very detailed studies of specific locations and overly aggregate global analyses. While CIAM is global in scope, the optimal adaptation strategy is determined at the local level, evaluating over 12,000 coastal segments as described in the DIVA database (Vafeidis et al. 2006). The decision to pursue a given adaptation measure depends on local socioeconomic factors like income, population, and land values and how they develop over time, relative to the magnitude of potential coastal impacts, based on geophysical attributes like inundation zones and storm surge. For example, the model's decision to protect or retreat considers the costs of constructing and maintaining coastal defenses versus those of relocating people and capital to minimize damages from land inundation and coastal storms. Uncertain storm surge events are modeled with a generalized extreme value distribution calibrated to data on local surge extremes. Adaptation is optimized for the near-term outlook, in an "act then learn then act" framework that is repeated over the model time horizon. This framework allows the adaptation strategy to be flexibly updated, reflecting the process of iterative risk management. CIAM provides new estimates of the economic costs of SLR; moreover, these detailed results can be compactly represented in a set of adaptation and damage functions for use in integrated assessment models. Alongside the optimal result, CIAM evaluates suboptimal cases and finds that global costs could increase by an order of magnitude, illustrating the importance of adaptive capacity and coastal policy.

Completed Experiments in Human Adaptation: Roles for Social Science in Arctic Policy Development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jensen, A. M.

2015-12-01

The Arctic contains many sites with exquisite organic preservation, which can be used to inform policy decisions in two very different ways. Archaeological sites can be considered at the result of completed experiments in human adaptation. With proper analysis of the multiple types of data they contain, one can see how climate change affected arctic ecosystems (including the human components) and how successful human responses were. Secondly, archaeological finds can provide vivid illustrations of the effects of climate change effects and extreme climatic events at a particular place. These illustrations appear to be far easier for members of the public to relate to than other means of transmitting scientific information, and can be good means of motivating people to be proactive.

Enacting Sustainable School-Based Health Initiatives: A Communication-Centered Approach to Policy and Practice

PubMed Central

Canary, Heather E.

2011-01-01

Communication plays an important role in all aspects of the development and use of policy. We present a communication-centered perspective on the processes of enacting public health policies. Our proposed conceptual framework comprises 4 communication frames: orientation, amplification, implementation, and integration. Empirical examples from 2 longitudinal studies of school-based health policies show how each frame includes different communication processes that enable sustainable public health policy practices in school-based health initiatives. These 4 frames provide unique insight into the capacity of school-based public health policy to engage youths, parents, and a broader community of stakeholders. Communication is often included as an element of health policy; however, our framework demonstrates the importance of communication as a pivotal resource in sustaining changes in public health practices. PMID:21233442

Tales from the Paleoclimate Underground: Lessons Learned from Reconstructing Extreme Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frappier, A. E.

2017-12-01

Tracing patterns of paleoclimate extremes over the past two millennia is becoming ever more important in the effort to understand and predict costly weather hazards and their varied societal impacts. I present three paleoclimate vignettes from the past ten years of different paleotempestology projects I have worked on closely, illustrating our collective challenges and productive pathways in reconstructing rainfall extremes: temporal, spatial, and combining information from disparate proxies. Finally, I aim to share new results from modeling multiple extremes and hazards in Yucatan, a climate change hotspot.

Are Sexual and Reproductive Health Policies Designed for All? Vulnerable Groups in Policy Documents of Four European Countries and Their Involvement in Policy Development.

PubMed

Ivanova, Olena; Dræbel, Tania; Tellier, Siri

2015-08-12

Health policies are important instruments for improving population health. However, experience suggests that policies designed for the whole population do not always benefit the most vulnerable. Participation of vulnerable groups in the policy-making process provides an opportunity for them to influence decisions related to their health, and also to exercise their rights. This paper presents the findings from a study that explored how vulnerable groups and principles of human rights are incorporated into national sexual and reproductive health (SRH) policies of 4 selected countries (Spain, Scotland, Republic of Moldova, and Ukraine). It also aimed at discussing the involvement of vulnerable groups in SRH policy development from the perspective of policy-makers. Literature review, health policy analysis and 5 semi-structured interviews with policy-makers were carried out in this study. Content analysis of SRH policies was performed using the EquiFrame analytical framework. The study revealed that vulnerable groups and core principles of human rights are differently addressed in SRH policies within 4 studied countries. The opinions of policy-makers on the importance of mentioning vulnerable groups in policy documents and the way they ought to be mentioned varied, but they agreed that a clear definition of vulnerability, practical examples, and evidences on health status of these groups have to be included. In addition, different approaches to vulnerable group's involvement in policy development were identified during the interviews and the range of obstacles to this process was discussed by respondents. Incorporation of vulnerable groups in the SRH policies and their involvement in policy development were found to be important in addressing SRH of these groups and providing an opportunity for them to advocate for equal access to healthcare and exercise their rights. Future research on this topic should include representatives of vulnerable communities which could help to build a dialogue and present the problem from multiple perspectives. © 2015 by Kerman University of Medical Sciences.

Introduction of male circumcision for HIV prevention in Uganda: analysis of the policy process.

PubMed

Odoch, Walter Denis; Kabali, Kenneth; Ankunda, Racheal; Zulu, Joseph Mumba; Tetui, Moses

2015-06-20

Health policy analysis is important for all health policies especially in fields with ever changing evidence-based interventions such as HIV prevention. However, there are few published reports of health policy analysis in sub-Saharan Africa in this field. This study explored the policy process of the introduction of male circumcision (MC) for HIV prevention in Uganda in order to inform the development processes of similar health policies. Desk review of relevant documents was conducted between March and May 2012. Thematic analysis was used to analyse the data. Conceptual frameworks that demonstrate the interrelationship within the policy development processes and influence of actors in the policy development processes guided the analysis. Following the introduction of MC on the national policy agenda in 2007, negotiation and policy formulation preceded its communication and implementation. Policy proponents included academic researchers in the early 2000s and development partners around 2007. Favourable contextual factors that supported the development of the policy included the rising HIV prevalence, adoption of MC for HIV prevention in other sub-Saharan African countries, and expertise on MC. Additionally, the networking capability of proponents facilitated the change in position of non-supportive or neutral actors. Non-supportive and neutral actors in the initial stages of the policy development process included the Ministry of Health, traditional and Muslim leaders, and the Republican President. Using political authority, legitimacy, and charisma, actors who opposed the policy tried to block the policy development process. Researchers' initial disregard of the Ministry of Health in the research process of MC and the missing civil society advocacy arm contributed to delays in the policy development process. This study underscores the importance of securing top political leadership as well as key implementing partners' support in policy development processes. Equally important is the appreciation of the various forms of actors' power and how such power shapes the policy agenda, development process, and content.

Are Sexual and Reproductive Health Policies Designed for All? Vulnerable Groups in Policy Documents of Four European Countries and Their Involvement in Policy Development

PubMed Central

Ivanova, Olena; Dræbel, Tania; Tellier, Siri

2015-01-01

Background: Health policies are important instruments for improving population health. However, experience suggests that policies designed for the whole population do not always benefit the most vulnerable. Participation of vulnerable groups in the policy-making process provides an opportunity for them to influence decisions related to their health, and also to exercise their rights. This paper presents the findings from a study that explored how vulnerable groups and principles of human rights are incorporated into national sexual and reproductive health (SRH) policies of 4 selected countries (Spain, Scotland, Republic of Moldova, and Ukraine). It also aimed at discussing the involvement of vulnerable groups in SRH policy development from the perspective of policy-makers. Methods: Literature review, health policy analysis and 5 semi-structured interviews with policy-makers were carried out in this study. Content analysis of SRH policies was performed using the EquiFrame analytical framework. Results: The study revealed that vulnerable groups and core principles of human rights are differently addressed in SRH policies within 4 studied countries. The opinions of policy-makers on the importance of mentioning vulnerable groups in policy documents and the way they ought to be mentioned varied, but they agreed that a clear definition of vulnerability, practical examples, and evidences on health status of these groups have to be included. In addition, different approaches to vulnerable group’s involvement in policy development were identified during the interviews and the range of obstacles to this process was discussed by respondents. Conclusion: Incorporation of vulnerable groups in the SRH policies and their involvement in policy development were found to be important in addressing SRH of these groups and providing an opportunity for them to advocate for equal access to healthcare and exercise their rights. Future research on this topic should include representatives of vulnerable communities which could help to build a dialogue and present the problem from multiple perspectives. PMID:26673176

Characteristics of atmospheric circulation patterns associated with extreme temperatures over North America in observations and climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loikith, Paul C.

Motivated by a desire to understand the physical mechanisms involved in future anthropogenic changes in extreme temperature events, the key atmospheric circulation patterns associated with extreme daily temperatures over North America in the current climate are identified. Several novel metrics are used to systematically identify and describe these patterns for the entire continent. The orientation, physical characteristics, and spatial scale of these circulation patterns vary based on latitude, season, and proximity to important geographic features (i.e., mountains, coastlines). The anomaly patterns associated with extreme cold events tend to be similar to, but opposite in sign of, those associated with extreme warm events, especially within the westerlies, and tend to scale with temperature in the same locations. The influence of the Pacific North American (PNA) pattern, the Northern Annular Mode (NAM), and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on extreme temperature days and months shows that associations between extreme temperatures and the PNA and NAM are stronger than associations with ENSO. In general, the association with extremes tends to be stronger on monthly than daily time scales. Extreme temperatures are associated with the PNA and NAM in locations typically influenced by these circulation patterns; however many extremes still occur on days when the amplitude and polarity of these patterns do not favor their occurrence. In winter, synoptic-scale, transient weather disturbances are important drivers of extreme temperature days; however these smaller-scale events are often concurrent with amplified PNA or NAM patterns. Associations are weaker in summer when other physical mechanisms affecting the surface energy balance, such as anomalous soil moisture content, are associated with extreme temperatures. Analysis of historical runs from seventeen climate models from the CMIP5 database suggests that most models simulate realistic circulation patterns associated with extreme temperature days in most places. Model-simulated patterns tend to resemble observed patterns better in the winter than the summer and at 500 hPa than at the surface. There is substantial variability among the suite of models analyzed and most models simulate circulation patterns more realistically away from influential features such as large bodies of water and complex topography.

The Influence of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (mjo) on Extreme Rainfall Over the Central and Southern Peruvian Andes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heidinger, H.; Jones, C.; Carvalho, L. V.

2015-12-01

Extreme rainfall is important for the Andean region because of the large contribution of these events to the seasonal totals and consequent impacts on water resources for agriculture, water consumption, industry and hydropower generation, as well as the occurrence of floods and landslides. Over Central and Southern Peruvian Andes (CSPA), rainfall exceeding the 90th percentile contributed between 44 to 100% to the total Nov-Mar 1979-2010 rainfall. Additionally, precipitation from a large majority of stations in the CSPA exhibits statistically significant spectral peaks on intraseasonal time-scales (20 to 70 days). The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is the most important intraseasonal mode of atmospheric circulation and moist convection in the tropics and the occurrence of extreme weather events worldwide. Mechanisms explaining the relationships between the MJO and precipitation in the Peruvian Andes have not been properly described yet. The present study examines the relationships between the activity and phases of the MJO and the occurrence of extreme rainfall over the CSPA. We found that the frequency of extreme rainfall events increase in the CSPA when the MJO is active. MJO phases 5, 6 and 7 contribute to the overall occurrence of extreme rainfall events over the CSPA. However, how the MJO phases modulate extreme rainfall depends on the location of the stations. For instance, extreme precipitation (above the 90th percentile) in stations in the Amazon basin are slightly more sensitive to phases 2, 3 and 4; the frequency of extremes in stations in the Pacific basin increases in phases 5, 6 and 7 whereas phase 2, 3 and 7 modulates extreme precipitation in stations in the Titicaca basin. Greater variability among stations is observed when using the 95th and 99th percentiles to identify extremes. Among the main mechanisms that explain the increase in extreme rainfall events in the Peruvian Andes is the intensification of the easterly moisture flux anomalies, which are favored during certain phases of the MJO. Here dynamical mechanisms linking the MJO to the occurrence of extreme rainfall in stations in the Peruvian Andes are investigated using composites of integrated moisture flux and geopotential height anomalies.

Medication management in North Carolina elementary schools: Are pharmacists involved?

PubMed

Stegall-Zanation, Jennifer; Scolaro, Kelly L

2010-01-01

To determine the extent of pharmacist use in medication management, roles of school nurses, and use of other health care providers at elementary schools in North Carolina. Prospective survey of 153 (130 public and 23 private) elementary schools in four counties of North Carolina. A 21-question survey was e-mailed to the head administrator of each school (e.g., principal, headmaster) containing a Qualtrics survey link. Questions were designed to elicit information on school policies and procedures for medication management and use of health care providers, including pharmacists, in the schools. Responses were collected during a 2-month period. Representatives from 29 schools participated in the survey (19% response rate). All 29 schools reported having a school policy regarding medication administration during school hours. Of those, 27 schools reported consulting with nurses on their policies. Only 1 of 27 respondents reported consulting with pharmacists on medication management policies. The majority of the respondents (93.1%) stated that administrative staff was responsible for medication administration at the schools. Use of pharmacists in creating and reviewing policies for schools and actual medication management at schools was extremely low. The findings in this study reinforce the findings in previous studies that pharmacists are not being used and are not a major presence in elementary school health.

Arctic daily temperature and precipitation extremes: Observed and simulated physical behavior

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Glisan, Justin Michael

Simulations using a six-member ensemble of Pan-Arctic WRF (PAW) were produced on two Arctic domains with 50-km resolution to analyze precipitation and temperature extremes for various periods. The first study used a domain developed for the Regional Arctic Climate Model (RACM). Initial simulations revealed deep atmospheric circulation biases over the northern Pacific Ocean, manifested in pressure, geopotential height, and temperature fields. Possible remedies to correct these large biases, such as modifying the physical domain or using different initial/boundary conditions, were unsuccessful. Spectral (interior) nudging was introduced as a way of constraining the model to be more consistent with observed behavior. However, such control over numerical model behavior raises concerns over how much nudging may affect unforced variability and extremes. Strong nudging may reduce or filter out extreme events, since the nudging pushes the model toward a relatively smooth, large-scale state. The question then becomes---what is the minimum spectral nudging needed to correct biases while not limiting the simulation of extreme events? To determine this, we use varying degrees of spectral nudging, using WRF's standard nudging as a reference point during January and July 2007. Results suggest that there is a marked lack of sensitivity to varying degrees of nudging. Moreover, given that nudging is an artificial forcing applied in the model, an important outcome of this work is that nudging strength apparently can be considerably smaller than WRF's standard strength and still produce reliable simulations. In the remaining studies, we used the same PAW setup to analyze daily precipitation extremes simulated over a 19-year period on the CORDEX Arctic domain for winter and summer. We defined these seasons as the three-month period leading up to and including the climatological sea ice maximum and minimum, respectively. Analysis focused on four North American regions defined using climatological records, regional weather patterns, and geographical/topographical features. We compared simulated extremes with those occurring at corresponding observing stations in the U.S. National Climate Data Center's (NCDC's) Global Summary of the Day. Our analysis focused on variations in features of the extremes such as magnitudes, spatial scales, and temporal regimes. Using composites of extreme events, we also analyzed the processes producing these extremes, comparing circulation, pressure, temperature and humidity fields from the ERA-Interim reanalysis and the model output. The analysis revealed the importance of atmospheric convection in the Arctic for some extreme precipitation events and the overall importance of topographic precipitation. The analysis established the physical credibility of the simulations for extreme behavior, laying a foundation for examining projected changes in extreme precipitation. It also highlighted the utility of the model for extracting behavior that one cannot discern directly from the observations, such as summer convective precipitation.

Back to the Future -Precipitation Extremes, Climate Variability, Environmental Planning and Adaptation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barros, A. P.

2008-12-01

--"The last major climatic oscillation peak was about 1856, or 74 years ago. Practically all of our important railroad and public highway work has been done since that time. Most of our parks systems driveways, and roads of all type for auto travel, in the various States, have been completed within the past 30 years, namely, beginning at the very lowest point of our climatic swing (1900-1910). There is every reason to believe, therefore, as the next 20 years comes on apace, we will witness considerable damage to work done during the past regime of weather."-- Schuman, 1931 At the beginning of the 21st century, as at the beginning of the 20th century, the fundamental question is whether the nation is more prepared for natural disasters today than it was eight decades ago. Indeed, the question is whether the best science, engineering and policy tools are in place to prepare for and respond to extreme events. Changes in the risk and magnitude of extreme precipitation events rank among the most studied impacts, and indicators (symptoms) of climatic variations. Extreme precipitation translates generally into extreme flooding, landslides, collapse of lifeline infrastructure, and the breakdown of public health services among others. In approaching the problem of quantifying the risk and magnitude of extreme precipitation events, there are two major challenges: 1) it is difficult to characterize "observed" (20th century) conditions due to the lack of long-term observations - i.e., short and incomplete historical records; and 2) it is difficult to characterize "predicted" (21st century) conditions due to the lack of skill of precipitation forecasts at spatial and temporal scales meaningful for impact studies, and the short-duration of climate model simulations themselves. The first challenge translates in estimating the probability of occurrence (rare) and magnitude (very large) of events that may have not happened yet. The second challenge is that of quantifying uncertainty and separating climatic variability and change from model error. Nonstationarity and persistence at multiple scales confound the problem. From an economics perspective, the unprecedented success of environmental control and "conservation" in the 20th century, present another yet challenge in terms of social expectations and human development, including the right to sustainable (high) quality of life. In this presentation, we illustrate these challenges by considering first the estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation, an engineering design criterion typically used in dam design, and examine how it varies spatially across the continental US according to physiographic region and as a function of climate regime. Second, we explore the spatial and temporal scales that link climate variability to macroscale environmental planning, and the notion of place-based adaptive riskgrade analysis.

Generalized extreme gust wind speeds distributions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cheng, E.; Yeung, C.

2002-01-01

Since summer 1996, the US wind engineers are using the extreme gust (or 3-s gust) as the basic wind speed to quantify the destruction of extreme winds. In order to better understand these destructive wind forces, it is important to know the appropriate representations of these extreme gust wind speeds. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to determine the most suitable extreme value distributions for the annual extreme gust wind speeds recorded in large selected areas. To achieve this objective, we are using the generalized Pareto distribution as the diagnostic tool for determining the types of extreme gust wind speed distributions. The three-parameter generalized extreme value distribution function is, thus, reduced to either Type I Gumbel, Type II Frechet or Type III reverse Weibull distribution function for the annual extreme gust wind speeds recorded at a specific site.With the considerations of the quality and homogeneity of gust wind data collected at more than 750 weather stations throughout the United States, annual extreme gust wind speeds at selected 143 stations in the contiguous United States were used in the study. ?? 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Microbial diversity of extreme habitats in human homes.

PubMed

Savage, Amy M; Hills, Justin; Driscoll, Katherine; Fergus, Daniel J; Grunden, Amy M; Dunn, Robert R

2016-01-01

High-throughput sequencing techniques have opened up the world of microbial diversity to scientists, and a flurry of studies in the most remote and extreme habitats on earth have begun to elucidate the key roles of microbes in ecosystems with extreme conditions. These same environmental extremes can also be found closer to humans, even in our homes. Here, we used high-throughput sequencing techniques to assess bacterial and archaeal diversity in the extreme environments inside human homes (e.g., dishwashers, hot water heaters, washing machine bleach reservoirs, etc.). We focused on habitats in the home with extreme temperature, pH, and chemical environmental conditions. We found a lower diversity of microbes in these extreme home environments compared to less extreme habitats in the home. However, we were nonetheless able to detect sequences from a relatively diverse array of bacteria and archaea. Habitats with extreme temperatures alone appeared to be able to support a greater diversity of microbes than habitats with extreme pH or extreme chemical environments alone. Microbial diversity was lowest when habitats had both extreme temperature and one of these other extremes. In habitats with both extreme temperatures and extreme pH, taxa with known associations with extreme conditions dominated. Our findings highlight the importance of examining interactive effects of multiple environmental extremes on microbial communities. Inasmuch as taxa from extreme environments can be both beneficial and harmful to humans, our findings also suggest future work to understand both the threats and opportunities posed by the life in these habitats.

A Longitudinal Investigation of Content, Resources, and Instructional Approaches in a Basal Reading Series within a Research and Policy Context

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kenavey, Lori Ann

2016-01-01

Basals have played an important role in classroom instruction for almost 200 years. Historically, basal programs have been influenced by both important research and policy reports. This study analyzed one publishing company's basal program across seven editions in order to trace the interaction of research, policy, and publication. Teacher's…

Perspectives on health policy dialogue: definition, perceived importance and coordination.

PubMed

Nabyonga-Orem, Juliet; Ousman, Kevin; Estrelli, Yolanda; Rene, Adzodo K M; Yakouba, Zina; Gebrikidane, Mesfin; Mamoud, Drave; Kwamie, Aku

2016-07-18

Countries in the World Health Organization African Region have witnessed an increase in global health initiatives in the recent past. Although these have provided opportunities for expanding coverage of health interventions; their poor alignment with the countries' priorities and weak coordination, are among the challenges that have affected their impact. A well-coordinated health policy dialogue provides an opportunity to address these challenges, but calls for common understanding among stakeholders of what policy dialogue entails. This paper seeks to assess stakeholders' understanding and perceived importance of health policy dialogue and of policy dialogue coordination. This was a cross-sectional descriptive study using qualitative methods. Interviews were conducted with 90 key informants from the national and sub-national levels in Lusophone Cabo Verde, Francophone Chad, Guinea and Togo, and Anglophone Liberia using an open-ended interview guide. The interviews were transcribed verbatim, coded and then put through inductive thematic content analysis using QRS software Version 10. There were variations in the definition of policy dialogue that were not necessarily linked to the linguistic leaning of respondents' countries or whether the dialogue took place at the national or sub-national level. The definitions were grouped into five categories based on whether they had an outcome, operational, process, forum or platform, or interactive and evidence-sharing orientation. The stakeholders highlighted multiple benefits of policy dialogue including ensuring stakeholder participation, improving stakeholder harmonisation and alignment, supporting implementation of health policies, fostering continued institutional learning, providing a guiding framework and facilitating stakeholder analysis. Policy dialogue offers the opportunity to improve stakeholder participation in policy development and promote aid effectiveness. However, conceptual clarity is needed to ensure pursuance of common objectives. While it is clear that stakeholder involvement is an important component of policy dialogue, numbers must be manageable for meaningful dialogue. Ownership and coordination of the policy dialogue are important aspects of the process, and building the institutional capacity of the ministry of health requires a comprehensive approach as opposed to strengthening selected departments within it. Likewise, capacity for policy dialogue needs to be built at the sub-national level, alongside improving the bottom-up approach in policy processes.

Alleviating the Policy Paradox through Improved Institutional Policy Systems: A Case Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Clark, Steven C.; Griffin, Rick A.; Martin, Cameron K.

2012-01-01

Institutional policies and policy systems are vital to the well-being of institutions of higher education. While many institutions dedicate time and resources to the development of key policies, the establishment of a well-designed and well-functioning policy system is often neglected. We refer to the discrepancy between the importance of…

Biomechanical and psychosocial work exposures and musculoskeletal symptoms among vineyard workers.

PubMed

Bernard, Christophe; Courouve, Laurène; Bouée, Stéphane; Adjémian, Annie; Chrétien, Jean-Claude; Niedhammer, Isabelle

2011-01-01

This study explored the associations between biomechanical and psychosocial work factors and musculoskeletal symptoms in vineyard workers. This cross-sectional study was based on a random sample of 2,824 male and 1,123 female vineyard workers in France. Data were collected using a self-administered questionnaire. Neck/shoulder, back and upper and lower extremity symptoms were evaluated using the Nordic questionnaire. Biomechanical exposures included 15 tasks related to vineyard activities. Psychosocial work factors included effort-reward imbalance and overcommitment, measured using the effort-reward imbalance model, and low job control and insufficient material means. Statistical analysis was performed using logistic regression analysis, and the results were adjusted for age, body mass index, educational level, work status and years in vineyard. Pruning-related factors increased the risk of upper extremity pain for both genders, of back pain for men and of neck/shoulder and lower extremity pain for women. Driving increased the risk of neck/shoulder and back pain among men. Psychosocial work factors, which were insufficient material means, overcommitment (both genders), effort-reward imbalance (men) and low job control (women), were associated with musculoskeletal symptoms, back and upper extremity pain for both genders and neck/shoulder and lower extremity pain for men. These results underlined that both biomechanical and psychosocial work factors may play a role in musculoskeletal pain among vineyard workers. Prevention policies focusing on both biomechanical and psychosocial work exposures may be useful to prevent musculoskeletal symptoms.

Modelling Precipitation and Temperature Extremes: The Importance of Horizontal Resolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shields, C. A.; Kiehl, J. T.; Meehl, G. A.

2013-12-01

Understanding Earth's water cycle on a warming planet is of critical importance in society's ability to adapt to climate change. Extreme weather events, such as floods, heat waves, and drought will likely change with the water cycle as greenhouse gases continue to rise. Location, duration, and intensity of extreme events can be studied using complex earth system models. Here, we employ the fully coupled Community Earth System Model (CESM1.0) to evaluate extreme event impacts for different possible future forcing scenarios. Simulations applying the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios 2.6 and 8.5 were chosen to bracket the range of model responses. Because extreme weather events happen on a regional scale, there is a tendency to favor using higher resolution models, i.e. models that can represent regional features with greater accuracy. Within the CESM1.0 framework, we evaluate both the standard 1 degree resolution (1 degree atmosphere/land coupled to 1 degree ocean/sea ice), and the higher 0.5 degree resolution version (0.5 degree atmosphere/land coupled to 1 degree ocean/sea ice), focusing on extreme precipitation events, heat waves, and droughts. We analyze a variety of geographical regions, but generally find that benefits from increased horizontal resolution are most significant on the regional scale.

Website Policies / Important Links | Data Explorer

Science.gov Websites

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Australians' views on carbon pricing before and after the 2013 federal election

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dreyer, Stacia J.; Walker, Iain; McCoy, Shannon K.; Teisl, Mario F.

2015-12-01

As climate policies change through the legislative process, public attitudes towards them may change as well. Therefore, it is important to assess how people accept and support controversial climate policies as the policies change over time. Policy acceptance is a positive evaluation of, or attitude towards, an existing policy; policy support adds an active behavioural component. Acceptance does not necessarily lead to support. We conducted a national survey of Australian residents to investigate acceptance of, and support for, the Australian carbon pricing policy before and after the 2013 federal election, and how perceptions of the policy, economic ideology, and voting behaviour affect acceptance and support. We found acceptance and support were stable across the election period, which was surprising given that climate policy was highly contentious during the election. Policy acceptance was higher than policy support at both times and acceptance was a necessary but insufficient condition of support. We conclude that acceptance is an important process through which perceptions of the policy and economic ideology influence support. Therefore, future climate policy research needs to distinguish between acceptance and support to better understand this process, and to better measure these concepts.

Modelling deforestation trends in Costa Rica and predicting future forest sustainability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stan, Kayla; Sanchez, Arturo

2017-04-01

Deforestation in Costa Rica has historically varied between the original degradation of primary forest due to land-based industries, followed by secondary regrowth. The regeneration of forests largely came into effect with incentive based programs such as payments for ecosystem services, creation of large protected areas, and a new industry of ecotourism in the country. Given the changes that have occurred within the last 50 years from heavy deforestation pressures to regeneration patterns, and a correlation between deforestation and policy/economic influences, it is important to understand the historical changes that have occurred and how the forests will change in the future, which provides the objective of this study. Future projections are increasingly important given changes in the global socio-political structure, climatic change, and the ever increasing globalization of capitalistic endeavours. The trajectory of the forest in the country can also serve as a way to track both these global pressures on the natural landscape in Costa Rica, and as a proxy for how to manage deforestation in other similar political and geographic areas of the tropics. To determine the historical deforestation trends and link them to the different biogeophysical and socioeconomic variables, forest maps from 1960-2013 were used in the Dinamica Environment for Geoprocessing Objects (Dinamica EGO) to create deforestation models for Costa Rica. Dinamica EGO is a cellular automata model which utilizes Bayesian statistics and expert opinion to replicate both patterns and quantities of land cover change over time with both static and dynamic variables. Additional legislative variables can be used to track how political pressures shift deforestation both spatially and temporally. The historical model was built and analyzed for changes in landscape metrics such as patch size and distance between 1960 and 2013. After validation of the model's ability to replicate patterns, first between 2005 and 2013, and then back to 1997, a future model was created to determine future country wide changes. There was a significant decrease in patch size between 1960 and 2013 in forests and a non-significant decrease is patch size for non-forests. The historical model validated at 85% accuracy within 600m for both the 2005-2013 and 1997-2005 iterations. Future scenario building determines the point in time and area at which the forest area equilibrates, indicating the approximate maximal forest extent under extreme scenarios. None of the scenarios were sufficiently damaging to decrease the forest area below present day levels. The Puntarenas province is the only region which had deforestation in the most extreme scenario. Using the inclusion and exclusion of protected areas within the model, it was determined which of the parks suffers from high pressure of deforestation should there be policy removing protected area status. These parks are predominantly limited to small areas on coastal regions, while the large central parks suffer relatively little pressure from deforestation. This indicates that even under the most extreme scenarios, the secondary forests are likely to remain permanently and continue to regenerate as time progresses.

Contribution of anthropogenic warming to California drought during 2012-2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, P.; Seager, R.; Abatzoglou, J. T.; Cook, B.; Smerdon, J. E.; Cook, E. R.

2015-12-01

California is currently in its fourth year of a drought that has caused record-breaking rates of ground-water extraction, fallowed agricultural fields, changes to water-use policy, dangrously low lake levels, and ecological disturbances such as large wildfires and bark-beetle outbreaks. A common and important question is: to what degree can the severity of this drought in California, or of any drought globally, be blamed on human-caused global warming? Here we present the most comprehensive accounting of the natural and anthropogenic contributions to drought variability to date, and we provide an in-depth evaluation of the recent extreme drought in California. A suite of climate datasets and multiple representations of atmospheric moisture demand are used to calculate many estimates of the self-calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index, a proxy for near-surface soil moisture, across California from 1901-2014 at high spatial resolution. Based on the ensemble of calculations, California drought conditions were record-breaking in 2014, but probably not record-breaking in 2012-2014, contrary to prior findings. Regionally, the 2012-2014 drought was record-breaking in the agriculturally important southern Central Valley and highly populated coastal areas. Contributions of individual climate variables to recent drought are also examined, including the temperature component associated with anthropogenic warming. Precipitation is the primary driver of drought variability but anthropogenic warming is estimated to have accounted for 8-27% of the observed drought anomaly in 2012-2014 and 5-18% in 2014. Analyses will be updated through 2015 for this presentation. Although natural climate variability has often masked the background effects of warming on drought, the background effect is becoming increasingly detectable and important, particularly by increased the overall likelihood of extreme California droughts. The dramatic effects of the current drought in California, combined with knowledge that the background warming-driven drought trend will continue to intensify amidst a high degree of natural climate variability, highlight the critical need for a long-term outlook on drought resilience even though wet conditions are likely to soon mitigate the current drought event.

19 CFR Policy Statement to Part 145 - Examination of Sealed Letter Class Mail

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-04-01

... Policy Statement to Part 145 Customs Duties U.S. CUSTOMS AND BORDER PROTECTION, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY; DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY (CONTINUED) MAIL IMPORTATIONS Pt. 145, Policy Stmt. Policy Statement... policies will lead to appropriate administrative sanctions, as well as possible criminal prosecution...

19 CFR Policy Statement to Part 145 - Examination of Sealed Letter Class Mail

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... Policy Statement to Part 145 Customs Duties U.S. CUSTOMS AND BORDER PROTECTION, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY; DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY (CONTINUED) MAIL IMPORTATIONS Pt. 145, Policy Stmt. Policy Statement... policies will lead to appropriate administrative sanctions, as well as possible criminal prosecution...

19 CFR Policy Statement to Part 145 - Examination of Sealed Letter Class Mail

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-04-01

... Policy Statement to Part 145 Customs Duties U.S. CUSTOMS AND BORDER PROTECTION, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY; DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY (CONTINUED) MAIL IMPORTATIONS Pt. 145, Policy Stmt. Policy Statement... policies will lead to appropriate administrative sanctions, as well as possible criminal prosecution...

19 CFR Policy Statement to Part 145 - Examination of Sealed Letter Class Mail

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... Policy Statement to Part 145 Customs Duties U.S. CUSTOMS AND BORDER PROTECTION, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY; DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY (CONTINUED) MAIL IMPORTATIONS Pt. 145, Policy Stmt. Policy Statement... policies will lead to appropriate administrative sanctions, as well as possible criminal prosecution...

A dynamical systems approach to studying midlatitude weather extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Messori, Gabriele; Caballero, Rodrigo; Faranda, Davide

2017-04-01

Extreme weather occurrences carry enormous social and economic costs and routinely garner widespread scientific and media coverage. The ability to predict these events is therefore a topic of crucial importance. Here we propose a novel predictability pathway for extreme events, by building upon recent advances in dynamical systems theory. We show that simple dynamical systems metrics can be used to identify sets of large-scale atmospheric flow patterns with similar spatial structure and temporal evolution on time scales of several days to a week. In regions where these patterns favor extreme weather, they afford a particularly good predictability of the extremes. We specifically test this technique on the atmospheric circulation in the North Atlantic region, where it provides predictability of large-scale wintertime surface temperature extremes in Europe up to 1 week in advance.

Effects of extreme spring temperatures on phenology: a case study from Munich and Ingolstadt

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jochner, Susanne; Menzel, Annette

2010-05-01

Extreme events - e.g. warm spells or heavy precipitation events - are likely to increase in the future both in frequency and intensity. Therefore, research on extreme events gains new importance; also in terms of plant development which is mostly triggered by temperatures. An arising question is how plants respond to an extreme warm spell when following an extreme cold winter season. This situation could be studied in spring 2009 in the greater area of Munich and Ingolstadt by phenological observations of flowering and leaf unfolding of birch (Betula pendula L.) and flowering of horse chestnut (Aesculus hippocastanum L.). The long chilling period of winter 2008 and spring 2009 was followed by an immediate strong forcing of flowering and leaf unfolding, especially for birch. This extreme weather situation diminished the difference between urban and rural dates of onset. Another important fact that could be observed in the proceeding period of December 2008 to April 2009 was the reduced temperature difference among urban and rural sites (urban heat island effect). Long-term observations (1951-2008) of the phenological network of the German Meteorological Service (DWD) were used to identify years with reduced urban-rural differences between onset times in the greater area of Munich in the past. Statistical analyses were conducted in order to answer the question whether the sequence of extreme warm and cold events leads to a decreased difference in phenological onset times or if this behaviour can be attributed to extreme warm springs themselves or to the decreased urban heat island effect which is mostly affected by general atmospheric circulation patterns.

Generation of intervention strategy for a genetic regulatory network represented by a family of Markov Chains.

PubMed

Berlow, Noah; Pal, Ranadip

2011-01-01

Genetic Regulatory Networks (GRNs) are frequently modeled as Markov Chains providing the transition probabilities of moving from one state of the network to another. The inverse problem of inference of the Markov Chain from noisy and limited experimental data is an ill posed problem and often generates multiple model possibilities instead of a unique one. In this article, we address the issue of intervention in a genetic regulatory network represented by a family of Markov Chains. The purpose of intervention is to alter the steady state probability distribution of the GRN as the steady states are considered to be representative of the phenotypes. We consider robust stationary control policies with best expected behavior. The extreme computational complexity involved in search of robust stationary control policies is mitigated by using a sequential approach to control policy generation and utilizing computationally efficient techniques for updating the stationary probability distribution of a Markov chain following a rank one perturbation.

Embracing uncertainty in climate change policy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Otto, Friederike E. L.; Frame, David J.; Otto, Alexander; Allen, Myles R.

2015-10-01

The 'pledge and review' approach to reducing greenhouse-gas emissions presents an opportunity to link mitigation goals explicitly to the evolving climate response. This seems desirable because the progression from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's fourth to fifth assessment reports has seen little reduction in uncertainty. A common reaction to persistent uncertainties is to advocate mitigation policies that are robust even under worst-case scenarios, thereby focusing attention on upper extremes of both the climate response and the costs of impacts and mitigation, all of which are highly contestable. Here we ask whether those contributing to the formation of climate policies can learn from 'adaptive management' techniques. Recognizing that long-lived greenhouse gas emissions have to be net zero by the time temperatures reach a target stabilization level, such as 2 °C above pre-industrial levels, and anchoring commitments to an agreed index of attributable anthropogenic warming would provide a transparent approach to meeting such a temperature goal without prior consensus on the climate response.

Regional trade and the nutrition transition: opportunities to strengthen NCD prevention policy in the Southern African Development Community.

PubMed

Thow, Anne Marie; Sanders, David; Drury, Eliza; Puoane, Thandi; Chowdhury, Syeda N; Tsolekile, Lungiswa; Negin, Joel

2015-01-01

Addressing diet-related non-communicable diseases (NCDs) will require a multisectoral policy approach that includes the food supply and trade, but implementing effective policies has proved challenging. The Southern African Development Community (SADC) has experienced significant trade and economic liberalization over the past decade; at the same time, the nutrition transition has progressed rapidly in the region. This analysis considers the relationship between regional trade liberalization and changes in the food environment associated with poor diets and NCDs, with the aim of identifying feasible and proactive policy responses to support healthy diets. Changes in trade and investment policy for the SADC were documented and compared with time-series graphs of import data for soft drinks and snack foods to assess changes in imports and source country in relation to trade and investment liberalization. Our analysis focuses on regional trade flows. Diets and the burden of disease in the SADC have changed since the 1990s in parallel with trade and investment liberalization. Imports of soft drinks increased by 76% into SADC countries between 1995 and 2010, and processed snack foods by 83%. South Africa acts as a regional trade and investment hub; it is the major source of imports and investment related to these products into other SADC countries. At the same time, imports of processed foods and soft drinks from outside the region - largely from Asia and the Middle East - are increasing at a dramatic rate with soft drink imports growing by almost 1,200% and processed snack foods by 750%. There is significant intra-regional trade in products associated with the nutrition transition; however, growing extra-regional trade means that countries face new pressures in implementing strong policies to prevent the increasing burden of diet-related NCDs. Implementation of a regional nutrition policy framework could complement the SADC's ongoing commitment to regional trade policy.

Regional trade and the nutrition transition: opportunities to strengthen NCD prevention policy in the Southern African Development Community

PubMed Central

Thow, Anne Marie; Sanders, David; Drury, Eliza; Puoane, Thandi; Chowdhury, Syeda N.; Tsolekile, Lungiswa; Negin, Joel

2015-01-01

Background Addressing diet-related non-communicable diseases (NCDs) will require a multisectoral policy approach that includes the food supply and trade, but implementing effective policies has proved challenging. The Southern African Development Community (SADC) has experienced significant trade and economic liberalization over the past decade; at the same time, the nutrition transition has progressed rapidly in the region. This analysis considers the relationship between regional trade liberalization and changes in the food environment associated with poor diets and NCDs, with the aim of identifying feasible and proactive policy responses to support healthy diets. Design Changes in trade and investment policy for the SADC were documented and compared with time-series graphs of import data for soft drinks and snack foods to assess changes in imports and source country in relation to trade and investment liberalization. Our analysis focuses on regional trade flows. Results Diets and the burden of disease in the SADC have changed since the 1990s in parallel with trade and investment liberalization. Imports of soft drinks increased by 76% into SADC countries between 1995 and 2010, and processed snack foods by 83%. South Africa acts as a regional trade and investment hub; it is the major source of imports and investment related to these products into other SADC countries. At the same time, imports of processed foods and soft drinks from outside the region – largely from Asia and the Middle East – are increasing at a dramatic rate with soft drink imports growing by almost 1,200% and processed snack foods by 750%. Conclusions There is significant intra-regional trade in products associated with the nutrition transition; however, growing extra-regional trade means that countries face new pressures in implementing strong policies to prevent the increasing burden of diet-related NCDs. Implementation of a regional nutrition policy framework could complement the SADC's ongoing commitment to regional trade policy. PMID:26205364

Poverty eradication in a carbon constrained world.

PubMed

Hubacek, Klaus; Baiocchi, Giovanni; Feng, Kuishuang; Patwardhan, Anand

2017-10-24

The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change aims to keep warming below 2 °C while recognizing developing countries' right to eradicate extreme poverty. Poverty eradication is also the first of the Sustainable Development Goals. This paper investigates potential consequences for climate targets of achieving poverty eradication. We find that eradicating extreme poverty, i.e., moving people to an income above $1.9 purchasing power parity (PPP) a day, does not jeopardize the climate target even in the absence of climate policies and with current technologies. On the other hand, bringing everybody to a still modest expenditure level of at least $2.97 PPP would have long-term consequences on achieving emission targets. Compared to the reference mitigation pathway, eradicating extreme poverty increases the effort by 2.8% whereas bringing everybody to at least $2.97 PPP would increase the required mitigation rate by 27%. Given that the top 10% global income earners are responsible for 36% of the current carbon footprint of households; the discourse should address income distribution and the carbon intensity of lifestyles.

Achieving the Middle Ground in an Age of Concentrated Extremes: Mixed Middle-Income Neighborhoods and Emerging Adulthood

PubMed Central

SAMPSON, ROBERT J.; MARE, ROBERT D.; PERKINS, KRISTIN L.

2015-01-01

This article focuses on stability and change in “mixed middle-income” neighborhoods. We first analyze variation across nearly two decades for all neighborhoods in the United States and in the Chicago area, particularly. We then analyze a new longitudinal study of almost 700 Chicago adolescents over an 18-year span, including the extent to which they are exposed to different neighborhood income dynamics during the transition to young adulthood. The concentration of income extremes is persistent among neighborhoods, generally, but mixed middle-income neighborhoods are more fluid. Persistence also dominates among individuals, though Latino-Americans are much more likely than African Americans or whites to be exposed to mixed middle-income neighborhoods in the first place and to transition into them over time, even when adjusting for immigrant status, education, income, and residential mobility. The results here enhance our knowledge of the dynamics of income inequality at the neighborhood level, and the endurance of concentrated extremes suggests that policies seeking to promote mixed-income neighborhoods face greater odds than commonly thought. PMID:26722129

The policy and science of soil change - a Victorian perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fisher, Jane; Crawford, Michael C.

2015-07-01

Understanding and managing soil change is an important component of maintaining soil health and soil security which is important for the future of agricultural productivity in Victoria. Historically, soil policy in Victoria has been dealt with on the basis of a single issue. With the emergence of farming systems thinking, and the concept of soil health and soil security, a more holistic approach is now being taken. A seven-step policy framework has been developed that promotes dialogue between scientist and policy makers. The questions it asks (what is the problem and how can it be solved?) clarify the role of government investment, and developing partnerships between science and policy, enables early identification of potential policy problems and development of appropriate policy interventions to manage soil change and ultimately soil health, soil security and soil productivity.

Poverty, Disease, and the Ecology of Complex Systems

PubMed Central

Pluciński, Mateusz M.; Murray, Megan B.; Farmer, Paul E.; Barrett, Christopher B.; Keenan, Donald C.

2014-01-01

Understanding why some human populations remain persistently poor remains a significant challenge for both the social and natural sciences. The extremely poor are generally reliant on their immediate natural resource base for subsistence and suffer high rates of mortality due to parasitic and infectious diseases. Economists have developed a range of models to explain persistent poverty, often characterized as poverty traps, but these rarely account for complex biophysical processes. In this Essay, we argue that by coupling insights from ecology and economics, we can begin to model and understand the complex dynamics that underlie the generation and maintenance of poverty traps, which can then be used to inform analyses and possible intervention policies. To illustrate the utility of this approach, we present a simple coupled model of infectious diseases and economic growth, where poverty traps emerge from nonlinear relationships determined by the number of pathogens in the system. These nonlinearities are comparable to those often incorporated into poverty trap models in the economics literature, but, importantly, here the mechanism is anchored in core ecological principles. Coupled models of this sort could be usefully developed in many economically important biophysical systems—such as agriculture, fisheries, nutrition, and land use change—to serve as foundations for deeper explorations of how fundamental ecological processes influence structural poverty and economic development. PMID:24690902

Poverty, disease, and the ecology of complex systems.

PubMed

Ngonghala, Calistus N; Pluciński, Mateusz M; Murray, Megan B; Farmer, Paul E; Barrett, Christopher B; Keenan, Donald C; Bonds, Matthew H

2014-04-01

Understanding why some human populations remain persistently poor remains a significant challenge for both the social and natural sciences. The extremely poor are generally reliant on their immediate natural resource base for subsistence and suffer high rates of mortality due to parasitic and infectious diseases. Economists have developed a range of models to explain persistent poverty, often characterized as poverty traps, but these rarely account for complex biophysical processes. In this Essay, we argue that by coupling insights from ecology and economics, we can begin to model and understand the complex dynamics that underlie the generation and maintenance of poverty traps, which can then be used to inform analyses and possible intervention policies. To illustrate the utility of this approach, we present a simple coupled model of infectious diseases and economic growth, where poverty traps emerge from nonlinear relationships determined by the number of pathogens in the system. These nonlinearities are comparable to those often incorporated into poverty trap models in the economics literature, but, importantly, here the mechanism is anchored in core ecological principles. Coupled models of this sort could be usefully developed in many economically important biophysical systems--such as agriculture, fisheries, nutrition, and land use change--to serve as foundations for deeper explorations of how fundamental ecological processes influence structural poverty and economic development.

Landsat as a Political Entity: Meaningful Communication for a National Asset

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rocchio, L. E.

2010-12-01

Understanding the health of our planet on a global scale is essential to the world’s populace. Earth-observing satellites have long been collecting data that enable a robust comprehension of Earth’s complex and interconnected systems. Despite these important contributions, the fleet of U.S. Earth-observing satellites is aging and operational status for most onboard sensors has not materialized. These satellites are imperative objective viewers of our changing planet as we try to monitor and deal with natural disasters, carbon budgeting, water consumption, and food production. But the satellite building and launching process needed to sustain an operational observatory is extremely political. Landsat, the oldest civilian land-observing satellite, has a long and checkered political past, and it is only because of a handful of political champions that the program has endured. This begs the question: are policymakers aware of the contributions of satellites to our national wellbeing? And if not, can the science community better communicate with the general public at large and policy makers in particular? Here Landsat is examined as a political entity and the six pillars of effective science communication (context, trust, dialogue, clarity, respect, nuance) are used to develop, refine, and analyze a fact sheet and case study that explain the importance of Landsat Earth-observation to our society.

Moderating attitudes in times of violence through paradoxical thinking intervention

PubMed Central

Hameiri, Boaz; Porat, Roni; Bar-Tal, Daniel; Halperin, Eran

2016-01-01

In the current paper, we report a large-scale randomized field experiment, conducted among Jewish Israelis during widespread violence. The study examines the effectiveness of a “real world,” multichanneled paradoxical thinking intervention, with messages disseminated through various means of communication (i.e., online, billboards, flyers). Over the course of 6 wk, we targeted a small city in the center of Israel whose population is largely rightwing and religious. Based on the paradoxical thinking principles, the intervention involved transmission of messages that are extreme but congruent with the shared Israeli ethos of conflict. To examine the intervention’s effectiveness, we conducted a large-scale field experiment (prepost design) in which we sampled participants from the city population (n = 215) and compared them to a control condition (from different places of residence) with similar demographic and political characteristics (n = 320). Importantly, participants were not aware that the intervention was related to the questionnaires they answered. Results showed that even in the midst of a cycle of ongoing violence within the context of one of the most intractable conflicts in the world, the intervention led hawkish participants to decrease their adherence to conflict-supporting attitudes across time. Furthermore, compared with the control condition, hawkish participants that were exposed to the paradoxical thinking intervention expressed less support for aggressive policies that the government should consider as a result of the escalation in violence and more support for conciliatory policies to end the violence and promote a long-lasting agreement. PMID:27790995

Political Leadership in the Time of Crises: Primum non Nocere.

PubMed

Burkle, Frederick M; Hanfling, Dan

2015-05-29

Long before the 2014 Ebola outbreak in West Africa, the United States was already experiencing a failure of confidence between politicians and scientists, primarily focused on differences of opinion on climate extremes. This ongoing clash has culminated in an environment where politicians most often no longer listen to scientists. Importation of Ebola virus to the United States prompted an immediate political fervor over travel bans, sealing off borders and disputes over the reliability of both quarantine and treatment protocol. This demonstrated that evidenced- based scientific discourse risks taking a back seat to political hyperbole and fear. The role of public health and medical expertise should be to ensure that cogent response strategies, based upon good science and accumulated knowledge and experience, are put in place to help inform the development of sound public policy. But in times of crisis, such reasoned expertise and experience are too often overlooked in favor of the partisan press "sound bite", where fear and insecurity have proved to be severely counterproductive. While scientists recognize that science cannot be entirely apolitical, the lessons from the impact of Ebola on political discourse shows that there is need for stronger engagement of the scientific community in crafting messages required for response to such events. This includes the creation of moral and ethical standards for the press, politicians and scientists, a partnership of confidence between the three that does not now exist and an "elected officials" toolbox that helps to translate scientific evidence and experience into readily acceptable policy and public communication.

A rationale for lowering the blood lead action level from 10 to 2 μg/dL☆

PubMed Central

Gilbert, Steven G.; Weiss, Bernard

2008-01-01

Fifteen years ago, in 1991, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) established 10 μg/dL as the lowest level of concern for children’s blood lead levels. This value is extremely important because, historically, policy makers and public health officials generally have acted to remove sources of lead exposure only after the CDC’s level of concern had been exceeded. A growing body of evidence, however, reveals that blood lead levels below 10 μg/dL may impair neurobehavioral development. There is now sufficient and compelling scientific evidence for the CDC to lower the blood lead action level in children. This review argues that a level of 2 μg/dL is a useful and feasible replacement. Although it can be argued, in turn, that no threshold for the health effects of lead is demonstrable, analytically a blood level of 2 μg/dL is readily and accurately measured and provides a benchmark for successful prevention. Lowering the level of concern would encourage and accelerate the investments needed to ensure that children are protected from lead exposure in their homes, schools, and play settings. Such a program would also offer economic advantages because of the coupling between lead, educational attainment, earnings and anti-social conduct. By lowering the blood action level, CDC will promote policies and initiatives designed to further reduce children’s exposure to this potent developmental neurotoxicant. PMID:16889836

An assessment of long term ecosystem research activities across European socio-ecological gradients.

PubMed

Metzger, M J; Bunce, R G H; van Eupen, M; Mirtl, M

2010-06-01

Integration of European long term ecosystem research (LTER) would provide important support for the management of the pan-European environment and ecosystems, as well as international policy commitments. This does require appropriate coverage of Europe and standardised frameworks and research methods between countries. Emerging interest in socio-ecological systems prompted the present assessment of the distribution of LTER activities across European socio-ecological gradients. This paper presents a European stratification with a 1 km(2) resolution, delineating 48 broad socio-ecological regions. The dataset is based on an existing biogeophysical stratification constructed using multivariate clustering of mainly climatic variables and a newly developed socio-economic stratification based on an economic density indicator. The coverage of European LTER facilities across the socio-ecological gradients is tested using this dataset. The analysis shows two strong biases in the present LTER effort. Firstly, urban and disturbed regions are consistently under-represented, illustrating a bias for traditional ecological research away from human activity. Secondly, the Mediterranean, for which some of the most extreme global change impacts are projected, is receiving comparatively little attention. Both findings can help guide future investment in the European LTER network - and especially in a Long Term Socio-Ecological Research (LTSER) component- to provide a more balanced coverage. This will provide better scientific understanding of pan-European environmental concerns and support the management of natural resources and international policy commitments in the European Union. (c) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Moderating attitudes in times of violence through paradoxical thinking intervention.

PubMed

Hameiri, Boaz; Porat, Roni; Bar-Tal, Daniel; Halperin, Eran

2016-10-25

In the current paper, we report a large-scale randomized field experiment, conducted among Jewish Israelis during widespread violence. The study examines the effectiveness of a "real world," multichanneled paradoxical thinking intervention, with messages disseminated through various means of communication (i.e., online, billboards, flyers). Over the course of 6 wk, we targeted a small city in the center of Israel whose population is largely rightwing and religious. Based on the paradoxical thinking principles, the intervention involved transmission of messages that are extreme but congruent with the shared Israeli ethos of conflict. To examine the intervention's effectiveness, we conducted a large-scale field experiment (prepost design) in which we sampled participants from the city population (n = 215) and compared them to a control condition (from different places of residence) with similar demographic and political characteristics (n = 320). Importantly, participants were not aware that the intervention was related to the questionnaires they answered. Results showed that even in the midst of a cycle of ongoing violence within the context of one of the most intractable conflicts in the world, the intervention led hawkish participants to decrease their adherence to conflict-supporting attitudes across time. Furthermore, compared with the control condition, hawkish participants that were exposed to the paradoxical thinking intervention expressed less support for aggressive policies that the government should consider as a result of the escalation in violence and more support for conciliatory policies to end the violence and promote a long-lasting agreement.

Managerial Receptivity and Implementation of Policies.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stevens, John M.; And Others

1980-01-01

Managerial receptivity to new policy, perceived emphasis by top level management, organizational size, work overload, perceptions of the importance of performance for promotion, and the manager's attitude toward change were important predictors for successful implementation. (Author)

Beneficial impacts of an international grain reserve on global food security

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Otto, C.; Schewe, J.; Puma, M. J.; Frieler, K.

2017-12-01

Highly volatile food prices on global markets challenge food security. Only in the last decade, two pronounced food price spikes severely affected vulnerable populations worldwide by increasing malnutrition and hunger. This has stirred up the debate upon the usefulness of an international grain reserve. Whereas advocates argue that it could damp damaging price extremes, opponents question its effectiveness and are concerned about associated market distortions and costs. However, to our knowledge, a comprehensive quantitative assessment is still missing. For this purpose, we introduce an agent-based dynamic multi-regional model that consistently accounts for intra-annual strategic as well as commercial storage holding. For the case of wheat, we first show that the model is able to reproduce historical world market prices (see Fig. 1(a)) and regional ending stocks (stocks see Fig.1(b) for global ending stocks) from 1980 to the present. Having a bi-annual timestep, the model enables us to single out the main drivers of past short-term price volatility: regional, mainly weather induced, production variations followed by trade policies as the second most important driver. The latter include, both, long-term stockholding management decisions as well as short-term regional political responses to scarcity situations such as export restrictions and restocking attempts. We then quantitatively model a strategic wheat reserve managed by an international body such as the UN. We discuss a management scheme for the reserve that aims at stabilizing prices within a price band by buying at low and selling at high prices (cf. Fig. 1). Importantly, in order to minimize market distortions, this scheme is not designed to damp out price volatility completely, but to merely avoid damaging price extremes. Thus, it preserves the incentive for producers to invest in agricultural development and it can only complement and not replace local efforts to increase the food system's resilience. Eventually, we compare the necessary size of such a reserve to present national reserves and discuss the related costs.

Wildland fire management policy: Learning from the past and present and responding to future challenges

Treesearch

Tom Zimmerman

2009-01-01

Wildland fire is one of the most important vegetation- shaping factors that land managers deal with. It is our highest risk, most complex, and potentially highest consequence program. Wildland fire management policy is the most important element in defining the direction, scope, and focus of the program. What is policy? If we look it up in Merriam-Webster's...

Extreme Weather Risk Assessment: The Case of Jiquilisco, El Salvador

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Melendez, Karla; Ceppi, Claudia; Molero, Juanjo; Rios Insua, David

2014-05-01

All major climate models predict increases in both global and regional mean temperatures throughout this century, under different scenarios concerning future trends in population growth or economic and technological development. This consistency of results across models has strengthened the evidence about global warming. Despite the convincing facts and findings of climate researchers, there is still a great deal of skepticism around climate change. There is somewhat less consensus about some of the consequences of climate change, for example in reference to extreme weather changes, in particular as regards more local scales. However, such changes seem to have already considerable impact in many regions across the world in terms of lives, economic losses, and required changes in lifestyles. This may demand appropriate policy responses both at national and local levels. Our work provides a framework for extreme weather multithreat risk management, based on probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). This may be useful in comparing the effectiveness of different actions to manage risks and inform judgment concerning the appropriate resource allocation to mitigate the risks. The methodology has been applied to the case study of the "El Marillo II" community, located in the municipality of Jiquilisco in El Salvador. There, the main problem related with extreme weather conditions are the frequent floods caused by rainfall, hurricanes , and water increases in the Lempa river nearby located. However, droughts are also very relevant. Based on several sources like SNET, newspapers, field visits to the region and interviews, we have built a detailed database that comprises extreme weather daily data from January 1971 until December 2011. Forecasting models for floods and droughts were built suggesting the need to properly manage the risks. We subsequently obtained the optimal portfolio of countermeasures, given the budget constraints. KEYWORDS: CLIMATE CHANGE, EXTREME WEATHER, RISK ANALYSIS, DECISION ANALYSIS, EL SALVADOR.

Large-Scale Atmospheric Circulation Patterns Associated with Temperature Extremes as a Basis for Model Evaluation: Methodological Overview and Results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loikith, P. C.; Broccoli, A. J.; Waliser, D. E.; Lintner, B. R.; Neelin, J. D.

2015-12-01

Anomalous large-scale circulation patterns often play a key role in the occurrence of temperature extremes. For example, large-scale circulation can drive horizontal temperature advection or influence local processes that lead to extreme temperatures, such as by inhibiting moderating sea breezes, promoting downslope adiabatic warming, and affecting the development of cloud cover. Additionally, large-scale circulation can influence the shape of temperature distribution tails, with important implications for the magnitude of future changes in extremes. As a result of the prominent role these patterns play in the occurrence and character of extremes, the way in which temperature extremes change in the future will be highly influenced by if and how these patterns change. It is therefore critical to identify and understand the key patterns associated with extremes at local to regional scales in the current climate and to use this foundation as a target for climate model validation. This presentation provides an overview of recent and ongoing work aimed at developing and applying novel approaches to identifying and describing the large-scale circulation patterns associated with temperature extremes in observations and using this foundation to evaluate state-of-the-art global and regional climate models. Emphasis is given to anomalies in sea level pressure and 500 hPa geopotential height over North America using several methods to identify circulation patterns, including self-organizing maps and composite analysis. Overall, evaluation results suggest that models are able to reproduce observed patterns associated with temperature extremes with reasonable fidelity in many cases. Model skill is often highest when and where synoptic-scale processes are the dominant mechanisms for extremes, and lower where sub-grid scale processes (such as those related to topography) are important. Where model skill in reproducing these patterns is high, it can be inferred that extremes are being simulated for plausible physical reasons, boosting confidence in future projections of temperature extremes. Conversely, where model skill is identified to be lower, caution should be exercised in interpreting future projections.

The Climate Disruption Challenge for Water Security in a Growing World

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paxton, L. J.; Nix, M.; Ihde, A.; MacDonald, L. H.; Parker, C.; Schaefer, R. K.; Weiss, M.; Babin, S. M.; Swartz, W. H.; Schloman, J.

2012-12-01

Climate disruption, the increasingly large and erratic departures of weather and climate from the benign conditions of the last one hundred years, is the greatest challenge to the long-term stability of world governments. Population growth, food and water security, energy supplies, and economic factors are, to some degree, within the control of governance and policy and all of these are impacted by climate disruption. Climate disruption, on the other hand, is not amenable to direct modification on the short timescales that commonly dictate governmental policy and human response. Global average temperatures will continue to increase even if there were immediate, profound changes in emission scenarios. Policy makers are faced with the very practical and immediate problem of determining what can one reasonably do to ameliorate the impact of climate disruption. The issue from a policy viewpoint is: how does one make effective policy when faced with a situation in which there are varied viewpoints in competition. How does one establish a consensus for action? What information "speaks" to policy makers? Water security is one such issue and provides an important, immediate, and tangible device to use when we examine how one can determine what policies can be effectively pursued. The Global Assimilation of Information for Action (GAIA) project creates a support environment to address the impact of climate disruption on global, national, regional, and/or local interests. The basic research community is concerned with the scientific aspects of predicting climate change in terms of environmental parameters such as rainfall, temperature and humidity while decision makers must deal with planning for a world that may be very different from the one we have grown accustomed to. Decision makers must deal with the long-term impacts on public health, agriculture, economic productivity, security, extreme weather, etc in an environment that has come to focus on short-term issues. To complicate matters, the information available from the climate studies community is couched in terms of model projections with "uncertainties" and a choice of emission scenarios that are often expressed in terms of the results of computer simulations and model output. GAIA develops actionable information and explores the interactions of policy and practice. Part of this framework is the development of "games". These realistic games include the elements of both agent-based and role simulation games in which subject matter experts interact in a realistic scenario to explore courses of action and their outcomes based on realistic, projected environments. We will present examples of some of the past work done at APL and examples of collaborative or competitive games that could be used to explore climate disruption in terms of social, political, and economic impacts. These games provide immediate, "tactile" experience of the implications of a choice of policy. In this talk we will suggest how this tool can be applied to problems like the Colorado River Basin or the Brahmaputra.

Complicated Lower Extremity Wound Caused by Immune Thrombocytopenic Purpura Leading to Hypercoagulable State: A Team Approach for Limb Salvage

PubMed Central

Simman, Richard; Haluschak, John; Jackson, Sarah

2010-01-01

This article describes a complicated lower extremity wound due to hypercoagulable state caused by immune thrombocytopenic purpura. A team approach was important to limb salvage. A literature review is included. PMID:24527141

The Impact of the Type 094 Ballistic Missile Submarine on China’s Nuclear Policy

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-06-01

74 Figure 9. VLF Towers at Greenbury Point in Annapolis, MD........................................75 Figure 10. ELF Communications Source...China’s ability to utilize these systems. Extremely low frequency ( ELF ) communications have the advantage that messages can be received at depths of...capabilities. Even with this increase, it will still be difficult for China to maintain constant two-way communications with ELF or VLF in high sea

East Asia’s Foreign Exchange Rate Policies

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-07-16

At the other extreme, Japan, the Philippines, and South Korea have usually allowed their currencies to float freely in foreign exchange ( forex ...China, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand, and Vietnam allow their currency to adjust in value in forex markets so long as the...There were also reports that Korea sold more dollars for won in early April 2008.7 At the time, some forex analysts claimed that the new South Korean

Countering Terrorism on Military Installations

DTIC Science & Technology

1977-07-29

military forces and police agencies since 1970 uncover fanc - tional task-areas which require examinatiin subsequent to development of theory (policy...with the CinC in his office. GEN Blanchard was aware of the ’AI visit and had reqiiested this meeting. He was extremely interested and knowledgeable in...the subject of te:’rorism. He had recettly directed the Provost Marshal to prepare a paper on the subject and a command regulation. GEN Blanchard re

The Ogaden Insurrection: Implications for Islamist Extremism and U.S. National Security

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-02-16

DISTRIBUTION A. Approved for public release: distribution unlimited i DISCLAIMER The views expressed in this academic research paper are those of...23 Terrence Lyons, “Avoiding Conflict in the Horn of Africa, U.S. Policy Toward Ethiopia and Eritrea,” Council on Foreign Relations, CSR No. 21...ballot box and [the EPRDF regards] the expression of differing views and interests as a form of betrayal,” and are therefore repressed. International

Leadership and Management: Command Philosophy Vice Executive Philosophy

DTIC Science & Technology

1989-03-15

skills to make them more productive in their present positions. -17- ENDNOTES 1. The Walt Disney Company, letter to author, 11 November 1988. 2. Earl P...is extremely long and I will quote only portions in order to get a starting point. "The most frequently recurring specific themes describing the...are condoned, if not en:gendered, by certain Army policies regarding officer evaluation, selection for pro- motion, career concepts and assignment

The Age of Consequences: The Foreign Policy and National Security Implications of Global Climate Change

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-11-01

Climate skeptics The climate change-conflict nexus has its fair share of skeptics. Many observers remain unconvinced that climate change, whether due...implications of climate change remain specula- tive. In addition, they observe that none of the consequences forecast in the authoritative reports of the...modern practices and relocate to the few remaining habitable regions at the extreme north- ern and southern hemispheres.33 Essam El Hinnawi first

Analyzing phenological extreme events over the past five decades in Germany

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schleip, Christoph; Menzel, Annette; Estrella, Nicole; Graeser, Philipp

2010-05-01

As climate change may alter the frequency and intensity of extreme temperatures, we analysed whether warming of the last 5 decades has already changed the statistics of phenological extreme events. In this context, two extreme value statistical concepts are discussed and applied to existing phenological datasets of German Weather Service (DWD) in order to derive probabilities of occurrence for extreme early or late phenological events. We analyse four phenological groups; "begin of flowering, "leaf foliation", "fruit ripening" and "leaf colouring" as well as DWD indicator phases of the "phenological year". Additionally we put an emphasis on a between-species analysis; a comparison of differences in extreme onsets between three common northern conifers. Furthermore we conducted a within-species analysis with different phases of horse chestnut throughout a year. The first statistical approach fits data to a Gaussian model using traditional statistical techniques, and then analyses the extreme quantile. The key point of this approach is the adoption of an appropriate probability density function (PDF) to the observed data and the assessment of the PDF parameters change in time. The full analytical description in terms of the estimated PDF for defined time steps of the observation period allows probability assessments of extreme values for e.g. annual or decadal time steps. Related with this approach is the possibility of counting out the onsets which fall in our defined extreme percentiles. The estimation of the probability of extreme events on the basis of the whole data set is in contrast to analyses with the generalized extreme value distribution (GEV). The second approach deals with the extreme PDFs itself and fits the GEV distribution to annual minima of phenological series to provide useful estimates about return levels. For flowering and leaf unfolding phases exceptionally early extremes are seen since the mid 1980s and especially for the single years 1961, 1990 and 2007 whereas exceptionally extreme late events are seen in the year 1970. Summer phases such as fruit ripening exhibit stronger shifts to early extremes than spring phases. Leaf colouring phases reveal increasing probability for late extremes. The with GEV estimated 100-year event of Picea, Pinus and Larix amount to extreme early events of about -27, -31.48 and -32.79 days, respectively. If we assume non-stationary minimum data we get a more extreme 100-year event of about -35.40 for Picea but associated with wider confidence intervals. The GEV is simply another probability distribution but for purposes of extreme analysis in phenology it should be considered as equally important as (if not more important than) the Gaussian PDF approach.

A global analysis of the asymmetric effect of ENSO on extreme precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Xun; Renard, Benjamin; Thyer, Mark; Westra, Seth; Lang, Michel

2015-11-01

The global and regional influence of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon on extreme precipitation was analyzed using a global database comprising over 7000 high quality observation sites. To better quantify possible changes in relatively rare design-relevant precipitation quantiles (e.g. the 1 in 10 year event), a Bayesian regional extreme value model was used, which employed the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) - a measure of ENSO - as a covariate. Regions found to be influenced by ENSO include parts of North and South America, southern and eastern Asia, South Africa, Australia and Europe. The season experiencing the greatest ENSO effect varies regionally, but in most of the ENSO-affected regions the strongest effect happens in boreal winter, during which time the 10-year precipitation for |SOI| = 20 (corresponding to either a strong El Niño or La Niña episode) can be up to 50% higher or lower than for SOI = 0 (a neutral phase). Importantly, the effect of ENSO on extreme precipitation is asymmetric, with most parts of the world experiencing a significant effect only for a single ENSO phase. This finding has important implications on the current understanding of how ENSO influences extreme precipitation, and will enable a more rigorous theoretical foundation for providing quantitative extreme precipitation intensity predictions at seasonal timescales. We anticipate that incorporating asymmetric impacts of ENSO on extreme precipitation will help lead to better-informed climate-adaptive design of flood-sensitive infrastructure.

Taxing soft drinks in the Pacific: implementation lessons for improving health.

PubMed

Thow, Anne Marie; Quested, Christine; Juventin, Lisa; Kun, Russ; Khan, A Nisha; Swinburn, Boyd

2011-03-01

A tax on soft drinks is often proposed as a health promotion strategy for reducing their consumption and improving health outcomes. However, little is known about the processes and politics of implementing such taxes. We analysed four different soft drink taxes in Pacific countries and documented the lessons learnt regarding the process of policy agenda-setting and implementation. While local social and political context is critically important in determining policy uptake, these case studies suggest strategies for health promotion practitioners that can help to improve policy uptake and implementation. The case studies reveal interaction between the Ministries of Health, Finance and Revenue at every stage of the policy making process. In regard to agenda-setting, relevance to government fiscal priorities was important in gaining support for soft drink taxes. The active involvement of health policy makers was also important in initiating the policies, and the use of existing taxation mechanisms enabled successful policy implementation. While the earmarking of taxes for health has been widely recommended, the revenue may be redirected as government priorities change. Health promotion practitioners must strategically plan for agenda-setting, development and implementation of intersectoral health-promoting policies by engaging with stakeholders in finance at an early stage to identify priorities and synergies, developing cross-sectoral advocacy coalitions, and basing proposals on existing legislative mechanisms where possible.

Accelerated Learning Options: A Promising Strategy for States. Policy Insights

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Michelau, Demaree

2006-01-01

This issue of Policy Insights draws on findings from WICHE's report Accelerated Learning Options: Moving the Needle on Access and Success, to lay out some of the important policy issues that decision makers might consider when adopting new state policy related to accelerated learning or modifying policies already in existence. The publication…

The New Cannabis Policy Taxonomy on APIS: Making Sense of the Cannabis Policy Universe.

PubMed

Klitzner, Michael D; Thomas, Sue; Schuler, Jonathan; Hilton, Michael; Mosher, James

2017-06-01

The National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism's Alcohol Policy Information System (APIS) is, for the first time, adding legal data pertaining to recreational cannabis use to its current offerings on alcohol policy. Now that Colorado, Washington, Oregon, Alaska, and the District of Columbia have legalized aspects of recreational cannabis, and more states are considering it, there is an urgency to provide high-quality, multi-dimensional legal data to the public health community. This article introduces the Cannabis Policy Taxonomy recently posted on APIS, and explores its theoretical and empirical contributions to the substance abuse literature and its potential for use in policy research. We also present results of interviews with public health experts in alcohol and cannabis policy, which sought to determine the most important variables to address in the initial release of cannabis policy data. From this process, we found that pricing controls emerged as the variable singled out by the largest number of experts. This analysis points to a host of vital policies that are of increasing importance to public health policy scholars and their current and future research.