Integrating legacy data to understand agroecosystem regional dynamics to catastrophic events

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Multi-year extreme drought events are part of the history of the Earth system. Legacy data on the climate drivers, geomorphic features, and agroecosystem responses across a dynamically changing landscape throughout a region can provide important insights to a future where large-scale catastrophic ev...

Numerical investigations with WRF about atmospheric features leading to heavy precipitation and flood events over the Central Andes' complex topography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zamuriano, Marcelo; Brönnimann, Stefan

2017-04-01

It's known that some extremes such as heavy rainfalls, flood events, heatwaves and droughts depend largely on the atmospheric circulation and local features. Bolivia is no exception and while the large scale dynamics over the Amazon has been largely investigated, the local features driven by the Andes Cordillera and the Altiplano is still poorly documented. New insights on the regional atmospheric dynamics preceding heavy precipitation and flood events over the complex topography of the Andes-Amazon interface are added through numerical investigations of several case events: flash flood episodes over La Paz city and the extreme 2014 flood in south-western Amazon basin. Large scale atmospheric water transport is dynamically downscaled in order to take into account the complex topography forcing and local features as modulators of these events. For this purpose, a series of high resolution numerical experiments with the WRF-ARW model is conducted using various global datasets and parameterizations. While several mechanisms have been suggested to explain the dynamics of these episodes, they have not been tested yet through numerical modelling experiments. The simulations captures realistically the local water transport and the terrain influence over atmospheric circulation, even though the precipitation intensity is in general unrealistic. Nevertheless, the results show that Dynamical Downscaling over the tropical Andes' complex terrain provides useful meteorological data for a variety of studies and contributes to a better understanding of physical processes involved in the configuration of these events.

Dynamical properties and extremes of Northern Hemisphere climate fields over the past 60 years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Faranda, Davide; Messori, Gabriele; Alvarez-Castro, M. Carmen; Yiou, Pascal

2017-12-01

Atmospheric dynamics are described by a set of partial differential equations yielding an infinite-dimensional phase space. However, the actual trajectories followed by the system appear to be constrained to a finite-dimensional phase space, i.e. a strange attractor. The dynamical properties of this attractor are difficult to determine due to the complex nature of atmospheric motions. A first step to simplify the problem is to focus on observables which affect - or are linked to phenomena which affect - human welfare and activities, such as sea-level pressure, 2 m temperature, and precipitation frequency. We make use of recent advances in dynamical systems theory to estimate two instantaneous dynamical properties of the above fields for the Northern Hemisphere: local dimension and persistence. We then use these metrics to characterize the seasonality of the different fields and their interplay. We further analyse the large-scale anomaly patterns corresponding to phase-space extremes - namely time steps at which the fields display extremes in their instantaneous dynamical properties. The analysis is based on the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, over the period 1948-2013. The results show that (i) despite the high dimensionality of atmospheric dynamics, the Northern Hemisphere sea-level pressure and temperature fields can on average be described by roughly 20 degrees of freedom; (ii) the precipitation field has a higher dimensionality; and (iii) the seasonal forcing modulates the variability of the dynamical indicators and affects the occurrence of phase-space extremes. We further identify a number of robust correlations between the dynamical properties of the different variables.

Intensification of convective extremes driven by cloud-cloud interaction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moseley, Christopher; Hohenegger, Cathy; Berg, Peter; Haerter, Jan O.

2016-10-01

In a changing climate, a key role may be played by the response of convective-type cloud and precipitation to temperature changes. Yet, it is unclear if convective precipitation intensities will increase mainly due to thermodynamic or dynamical processes. Here we perform large eddy simulations of convection by imposing a realistic diurnal cycle of surface temperature. We find convective events to gradually self-organize into larger cloud clusters and those events occurring late in the day to produce the highest precipitation intensities. Tracking rain cells throughout their life cycles, we show that events which result from collisions respond strongly to changes in boundary conditions, such as temperature changes. Conversely, events not resulting from collisions remain largely unaffected by the boundary conditions. Increased surface temperature indeed leads to more interaction between events and stronger precipitation extremes. However, comparable intensification occurs when leaving temperature unchanged but simply granting more time for self-organization. These findings imply that the convective field as a whole acquires a memory of past precipitation and inter-cloud dynamics, driving extremes. For global climate model projections, our results suggest that the interaction between convective clouds must be incorporated to simulate convective extremes and the diurnal cycle more realistically.

Constraint elimination in dynamical systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Singh, R. P.; Likins, P. W.

1989-01-01

Large space structures (LSSs) and other dynamical systems of current interest are often extremely complex assemblies of rigid and flexible bodies subjected to kinematical constraints. A formulation is presented for the governing equations of constrained multibody systems via the application of singular value decomposition (SVD). The resulting equations of motion are shown to be of minimum dimension.

Distribution of correlated spiking events in a population-based approach for Integrate-and-Fire networks.

PubMed

Zhang, Jiwei; Newhall, Katherine; Zhou, Douglas; Rangan, Aaditya

2014-04-01

Randomly connected populations of spiking neurons display a rich variety of dynamics. However, much of the current modeling and theoretical work has focused on two dynamical extremes: on one hand homogeneous dynamics characterized by weak correlations between neurons, and on the other hand total synchrony characterized by large populations firing in unison. In this paper we address the conceptual issue of how to mathematically characterize the partially synchronous "multiple firing events" (MFEs) which manifest in between these two dynamical extremes. We further develop a geometric method for obtaining the distribution of magnitudes of these MFEs by recasting the cascading firing event process as a first-passage time problem, and deriving an analytical approximation of the first passage time density valid for large neuron populations. Thus, we establish a direct link between the voltage distributions of excitatory and inhibitory neurons and the number of neurons firing in an MFE that can be easily integrated into population-based computational methods, thereby bridging the gap between homogeneous firing regimes and total synchrony.

Risk and dynamics of unprecedented hot months in South East China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thompson, Vikki; Dunstone, Nick J.; Scaife, Adam A.; Smith, Doug M.; Hardiman, Steven C.; Ren, Hong-Li; Lu, Bo; Belcher, Stephen E.

2018-06-01

The Yangtze region of South East China has experienced several extreme hot summer months in recent years. Such events can have devastating socio-economic impacts. We use a large ensemble of initialised climate simulations to assess the current chance of unprecedented hot summer months in the Yangtze River region. We find a 10% chance of an unprecedented hot summer month each year. Our simulations suggest that monthly mean temperatures up to 3 °C hotter than the current record are possible. The dynamics of these unprecedented extremes highlights the occurrence of a stationary atmospheric wave, the Silk Road Pattern, in a significant number of extreme hot events. We present evidence that this atmospheric wave is driven by variability in the Indian summer monsoon. Other extreme events are associated with a westward shift in the western North Pacific subtropical high. The most extreme simulated events exhibit combined characteristics of both the Silk Road Pattern and the shifted western North Pacific subtropical high.

Explicit Computations of Instantons and Large Deviations in Beta-Plane Turbulence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Laurie, J.; Bouchet, F.; Zaboronski, O.

2012-12-01

We use a path integral formalism and instanton theory in order to make explicit analytical predictions about large deviations and rare events in beta-plane turbulence. The path integral formalism is a concise way to get large deviation results in dynamical systems forced by random noise. In the most simple cases, it leads to the same results as the Freidlin-Wentzell theory, but it has a wider range of applicability. This approach is however usually extremely limited, due to the complexity of the theoretical problems. As a consequence it provides explicit results in a fairly limited number of models, often extremely simple ones with only a few degrees of freedom. Few exception exist outside the realm of equilibrium statistical physics. We will show that the barotropic model of beta-plane turbulence is one of these non-equilibrium exceptions. We describe sets of explicit solutions to the instanton equation, and precise derivations of the action functional (or large deviation rate function). The reason why such exact computations are possible is related to the existence of hidden symmetries and conservation laws for the instanton dynamics. We outline several applications of this apporach. For instance, we compute explicitly the very low probability to observe flows with an energy much larger or smaller than the typical one. Moreover, we consider regimes for which the system has multiple attractors (corresponding to different numbers of alternating jets), and discuss the computation of transition probabilities between two such attractors. These extremely rare events are of the utmost importance as the dynamics undergo qualitative macroscopic changes during such transitions.

Individuals with chronic ankle instability exhibit dynamic postural stability deficits and altered unilateral landing biomechanics: A systematic review.

PubMed

Simpson, Jeffrey D; Stewart, Ethan M; Macias, David M; Chander, Harish; Knight, Adam C

2018-06-13

To evaluate the literature regarding unilateral landing biomechanics and dynamic postural stability in individuals with and without chronic ankle instability (CAI). Four online databases (PubMed, ScienceDirect, Scopus, and SportDiscus) were searched from the earliest records to 31 January 2018, as well as reference sections of related journal articles, to complete the systematic search. Studies investigating the influence of CAI on unilateral landing biomechanics and dynamic postural stability were systematically reviewed and evaluated. Twenty articles met the criteria and were included in the systematic review. Individuals with CAI were found to have deficits in dynamic postural stability on the affected limb with medium to large effect sizes and altered lower extremity kinematics, most notably in the ankle and knee, with medium to large effect sizes. Additionally, greater loading rates and peak ground reaction forces, in addition to reductions in ankle muscle activity were also found in individuals with CAI during unilateral jump-landing tasks. Individuals with CAI demonstrate dynamic postural stability deficits, lower extremity kinematic alterations, and reduced neuromuscular control during unilateral jump-landings. These are likely factors that contribute recurrent lateral ankle sprain injuries during dynamic activity in individuals with CAI. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Prediction of Rare Transitions in Planetary Atmosphere Dynamics Between Attractors with Different Number of Zonal Jets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bouchet, F.; Laurie, J.; Zaboronski, O.

2012-12-01

We describe transitions between attractors with either one, two or more zonal jets in models of turbulent atmosphere dynamics. Those transitions are extremely rare, and occur over times scales of centuries or millennia. They are extremely hard to observe in direct numerical simulations, because they require on one hand an extremely good resolution in order to simulate accurately the turbulence and on the other hand simulations performed over an extremely long time. Those conditions are usually not met together in any realistic models. However many examples of transitions between turbulent attractors in geophysical flows are known to exist (paths of the Kuroshio, Earth's magnetic field reversal, atmospheric flows, and so on). Their study through numerical computations is inaccessible using conventional means. We present an alternative approach, based on instanton theory and large deviations. Instanton theory provides a way to compute (both numerically and theoretically) extremely rare transitions between turbulent attractors. This tool, developed in field theory, and justified in some cases through the large deviation theory in mathematics, can be applied to models of turbulent atmosphere dynamics. It provides both new theoretical insights and new type of numerical algorithms. Those algorithms can predict transition histories and transition rates using numerical simulations run over only hundreds of typical model dynamical time, which is several order of magnitude lower than the typical transition time. We illustrate the power of those tools in the framework of quasi-geostrophic models. We show regimes where two or more attractors coexist. Those attractors corresponds to turbulent flows dominated by either one or more zonal jets similar to midlatitude atmosphere jets. Among the trajectories connecting two non-equilibrium attractors, we determine the most probable ones. Moreover, we also determine the transition rates, which are several of magnitude larger than a typical time determined from the jet structure. We discuss the medium-term generalization of those results to models with more complexity, like primitive equations or GCMs.

Statistical similarities of pre-earthquake electromagnetic emissions to biological and economic extreme events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Potirakis, Stelios M.; Contoyiannis, Yiannis; Kopanas, John; Kalimeris, Anastasios; Antonopoulos, George; Peratzakis, Athanasios; Eftaxias, Konstantinos; Nomicos, Costantinos

2014-05-01

When one considers a phenomenon that is "complex" refers to a system whose phenomenological laws that describe the global behavior of the system, are not necessarily directly related to the "microscopic" laws that regulate the evolution of its elementary parts. The field of study of complex systems considers that the dynamics of complex systems are founded on universal principles that may be used to describe disparate problems ranging from particle physics to economies of societies. Several authors have suggested that earthquake (EQ) dynamics can be analyzed within similar mathematical frameworks with economy dynamics, and neurodynamics. A central property of the EQ preparation process is the occurrence of coherent large-scale collective behavior with a very rich structure, resulting from repeated nonlinear interactions among the constituents of the system. As a result, nonextensive statistics is an appropriate, physically meaningful, tool for the study of EQ dynamics. Since the fracture induced electromagnetic (EM) precursors are observable manifestations of the underlying EQ preparation process, the analysis of a fracture induced EM precursor observed prior to the occurrence of a large EQ can also be conducted within the nonextensive statistics framework. Within the frame of the investigation for universal principles that may hold for different dynamical systems that are related to the genesis of extreme events, we present here statistical similarities of the pre-earthquake EM emissions related to an EQ, with the pre-ictal electrical brain activity related to an epileptic seizure, and with the pre-crisis economic observables related to the collapse of a share. It is demonstrated the all three dynamical systems' observables can be analyzed in the frame of nonextensive statistical mechanics, while the frequency-size relations of appropriately defined "events" that precede the extreme event related to each one of these different systems present striking quantitative similarities. It is also demonstrated that, for the considered systems, the nonextensive parameter q increases as the extreme event approaches, which indicates that the strength of the long-memory / long-range interactions between the constituents of the system increases characterizing the dynamics of the system.

Materials @ LANL: Solutions for National Security Challenges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Teter, David

2012-10-01

Materials science activities impact many programmatic missions at LANL including nuclear weapons, nuclear energy, renewable energy, global security and nonproliferation. An overview of the LANL materials science strategy and examples of materials science programs will be presented. Major materials leadership areas are in materials dynamics, actinides and correlated electron materials, materials in radiation extremes, energetic materials, integrated nanomaterials and complex functional materials. Los Alamos is also planning a large-scale, signature science facility called MaRIE (Matter Radiation Interactions in Extremes) to address in-situ characterization of materials in dynamic and radiation environments using multiple high energy probes. An overview of this facility will also be presented.

Ongoing climatic extreme dynamics in Siberia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gordov, E. P.; Shulgina, T. M.; Okladnikov, I. G.; Titov, A. G.

2013-12-01

Ongoing global climate changes accompanied by the restructuring of global processes in the atmosphere and biosphere are strongly pronounced in the Northern Eurasia regions, especially in Siberia. Recent investigations indicate not only large changes in averaged climatic characteristics (Kabanov and Lykosov, 2006, IPCC, 2007; Groisman and Gutman, 2012), but more frequent occurrence and stronger impacts of climatic extremes are reported as well (Bulygina et al., 2007; IPCC, 2012: Climate Extremes, 2012; Oldenborh et al., 2013). This paper provides the results of daily temperature and precipitation extreme dynamics in Siberia for the last three decades (1979 - 2012). Their seasonal dynamics is assessed using 10th and 90th percentile-based threshold indices that characterize frequency, intensity and duration of climatic extremes. To obtain the geographical pattern of these variations with high spatial resolution, the sub-daily temperature data from ECMWF ERA-Interim reanalysis and daily precipitation amounts from APHRODITE JMA dataset were used. All extreme indices and linear trend coefficients have been calculated using web-GIS information-computational platform Climate (http://climate.scert.ru/) developed to support collaborative multidisciplinary investigations of regional climatic changes and their impacts (Gordov et al., 2012). Obtained results show that seasonal dynamics of daily temperature extremes is asymmetric for tails of cold and warm temperature extreme distributions. Namely, the intensity of warming during cold nights is higher than during warm nights, especially at high latitudes of Siberia. The similar dynamics is observed for cold and warm day-time temperatures. Slight summer cooling was observed in the central part of Siberia. It is associated with decrease in warm temperature extremes. In the southern Siberia in winter, we also observe some cooling mostly due to strengthening of the cold temperature extremes. Changes in daily precipitation extremes are spatially inhomogeneous. The largest increase in frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation is observed in the north of East Siberia. Negative trends related to precipitation amount decrease are found in the central West Siberia and in the south of East Siberia. The authors acknowledge partial financial support for this research from the Russian Foundation for Basic Research projects (11-05-01190 and 13-05-12034), SB RAS Integration project 131 and project VIII.80.2.1., the Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation contract 8345 and grant of the President of Russian Federation (decree 181).

Dynamics of cracks in disordered materials

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bonamy, Daniel

2017-05-01

Predicting when rupture occurs or cracks progress is a major challenge in numerous fields of industrial, societal, and geophysical importance. It remains largely unsolved: stress enhancement at cracks and defects, indeed, makes the macroscale dynamics extremely sensitive to the microscale material disorder. This results in giant statistical fluctuations and non-trivial behaviors upon upscaling, difficult to assess via the continuum approaches of engineering.

Spacecraft Dynamics and Control Program at AFRPL

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Das, A.; Slimak, L. K. S.; Schloegel, W. T.

1986-01-01

A number of future DOD and NASA spacecraft such as the space based radar will be not only an order of magnitude larger in dimension than the current spacecraft, but will exhibit extreme structural flexibility with very low structural vibration frequencies. Another class of spacecraft (such as the space defense platforms) will combine large physical size with extremely precise pointing requirement. Such problems require a total departure from the traditional methods of modeling and control system design of spacecraft where structural flexibility is treated as a secondary effect. With these problems in mind, the Air Force Rocket Propulsion Laboratory (AFRPL) initiated research to develop dynamics and control technology so as to enable the future large space structures (LSS). AFRPL's effort in this area can be subdivided into the following three overlapping areas: (1) ground experiments, (2) spacecraft modeling and control, and (3) sensors and actuators. Both the in-house and contractual efforts of the AFRPL in LSS are summarized.

Effects on Storm-Water Management for Three Major US Cities Using Location Specific Extreme Precipitation Dynamical Downscaling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pelle, A.; Allen, M.; Fu, J. S.

2013-12-01

With rising population and increasing urban density, it is of pivotal importance for urban planners to plan for increasing extreme precipitation events. Climate models indicate that an increase in global mean temperature will lead to increased frequency and intensity of storms of a variety of types. Analysis of results from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (CMIP5) has demonstrated that global climate models severely underestimate precipitation, however. Preliminary results from dynamical downscaling indicate that Philadelphia, Pennsylvania is expected to experience the greatest increase of precipitation due to an increase in annual extreme events in the US. New York City, New York and Chicago, Illinois are anticipated to have similarly large increases in annual extreme precipitation events. In order to produce more accurate results, we downscale Philadelphia, Chicago, and New York City using the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF). We analyze historical precipitation data and WRF output utilizing a Log Pearson Type III (LP3) distribution for frequency of extreme precipitation events. This study aims to determine the likelihood of extreme precipitation in future years and its effect on the of cost of stormwater management for these three cities.

Oxygen concentration dependence of silicon oxide dynamical properties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yajima, Yuji; Shiraishi, Kenji; Endoh, Tetsuo; Kageshima, Hiroyuki

2018-06-01

To understand oxidation in three-dimensional silicon, dynamic characteristics of a SiO x system with various stoichiometries were investigated. The calculated results show that the self-diffusion coefficient increases as oxygen density decreases, and the increase is large when the temperature is low. It also shows that the self-diffusion coefficient saturates, when the number of removed oxygen atoms is sufficiently large. Then, approximate analytical equations are derived from the calculated results, and the previously reported expression is confirmed in the extremely low-SiO-density range.

Contributions of Dynamic and Thermodynamic Scaling in Subdaily Precipitation Extremes in India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ali, Haider; Mishra, Vimal

2018-03-01

Despite the importance of subdaily precipitation extremes for urban areas, the role of dynamic and thermodynamic scaling in changes in precipitation extremes in India remains poorly constrained. Here we estimate contributions from thermodynamic and dynamic scaling on changes in subdaily precipitation extremes for 23 urban locations in India. Subdaily precipitation extremes have become more intense during the last few decades. Moreover, we find a twofold rise in the frequency of subdaily precipitation extremes during 1979-2015, which is faster than the increase in daily precipitation extremes. The contribution of dynamic scaling in this rise in the frequency and intensity of subdaily precipitation extremes is higher than the thermodynamic scaling. Moreover, half-hourly precipitation extremes show higher contributions from the both thermodynamic ( 10%/K) and dynamic ( 15%/K) scaling than daily (6%/K and 9%/K, respectively) extremes indicating the role of warming on the rise in the subdaily precipitation extremes in India. Our findings have implications for better understanding the dynamic response of precipitation extremes under the warming climate over India.

Multibody dynamics model building using graphical interfaces

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Macala, Glenn A.

1989-01-01

In recent years, the extremely laborious task of manually deriving equations of motion for the simulation of multibody spacecraft dynamics has largely been eliminated. Instead, the dynamicist now works with commonly available general purpose dynamics simulation programs which generate the equations of motion either explicitly or implicitly via computer codes. The user interface to these programs has predominantly been via input data files, each with its own required format and peculiarities, causing errors and frustrations during program setup. Recent progress in a more natural method of data input for dynamics programs: the graphical interface, is described.

Dynamical ocean-atmospheric drivers of floods and droughts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perdigão, Rui A. P.; Hall, Julia

2014-05-01

The present study contributes to a better depiction and understanding of the "facial expression" of the Earth in terms of dynamical ocean-atmospheric processes associated to both floods and droughts. For this purpose, the study focuses on nonlinear dynamical and statistical analysis of ocean-atmospheric mechanisms contributing to hydrological extremes, broadening the analytical hydro-meteorological perspective of floods and hydrological droughts to driving mechanisms and feedbacks at the global scale. In doing so, the analysis of the climate-related causality of hydrological extremes is not limited to the synoptic situation in the region where the events take place. Rather, it goes further in the train of causality, peering into dynamical interactions between planetary-scale ocean and atmospheric processes that drive weather regimes and influence the antecedent and event conditions associated to hydrological extremes. In order to illustrate the approach, dynamical ocean-atmospheric drivers are investigated for a selection of floods and droughts. Despite occurring in different regions with different timings, common underlying mechanisms are identified for both kinds of hydrological extremes. For instance, several analysed events are seen to have resulted from a large-scale atmospheric situation consisting on standing planetary waves encircling the northern hemisphere. These correspond to wider vortices locked in phase, resulting in wider and more persistent synoptic weather patterns, i.e. with larger spatial and temporal coherence. A standing train of anticyclones and depressions thus encircled the mid and upper latitudes of the northern hemisphere. The stationary regime of planetary waves occurs when the mean eastward zonal flow decreases up to a point in which it no longer exceeds the westward phase propagation of the Rossby waves produced by the latitude-varying Coriolis effect. The ocean-atmospheric causes for this behaviour and consequences on hydrological extremes are investigated and the findings supported with spatiotemporal geostatistical analysis and nonlinear geophysical models. Overall, the study provides a three-fold contribution to the research on hydrological extremes: Firstly, it improves their physical attribution by better understanding the dynamical reasons behind the meteorological drivers. Secondly, it brings out fundamental early warning signs for potential hydrological extremes, by bringing out global ocean-atmospheric features that manifest themselves much earlier than the regional weather patterns. Thirdly, it provides tools for addressing and understanding hydrological regime changes at wider spatiotemporal scales, by providing links to planetary-scale dynamical processes that play a crucial role in multi-decadal global climate variability.

Data-assisted reduced-order modeling of extreme events in complex dynamical systems

PubMed Central

Koumoutsakos, Petros

2018-01-01

The prediction of extreme events, from avalanches and droughts to tsunamis and epidemics, depends on the formulation and analysis of relevant, complex dynamical systems. Such dynamical systems are characterized by high intrinsic dimensionality with extreme events having the form of rare transitions that are several standard deviations away from the mean. Such systems are not amenable to classical order-reduction methods through projection of the governing equations due to the large intrinsic dimensionality of the underlying attractor as well as the complexity of the transient events. Alternatively, data-driven techniques aim to quantify the dynamics of specific, critical modes by utilizing data-streams and by expanding the dimensionality of the reduced-order model using delayed coordinates. In turn, these methods have major limitations in regions of the phase space with sparse data, which is the case for extreme events. In this work, we develop a novel hybrid framework that complements an imperfect reduced order model, with data-streams that are integrated though a recurrent neural network (RNN) architecture. The reduced order model has the form of projected equations into a low-dimensional subspace that still contains important dynamical information about the system and it is expanded by a long short-term memory (LSTM) regularization. The LSTM-RNN is trained by analyzing the mismatch between the imperfect model and the data-streams, projected to the reduced-order space. The data-driven model assists the imperfect model in regions where data is available, while for locations where data is sparse the imperfect model still provides a baseline for the prediction of the system state. We assess the developed framework on two challenging prototype systems exhibiting extreme events. We show that the blended approach has improved performance compared with methods that use either data streams or the imperfect model alone. Notably the improvement is more significant in regions associated with extreme events, where data is sparse. PMID:29795631

Data-assisted reduced-order modeling of extreme events in complex dynamical systems.

PubMed

Wan, Zhong Yi; Vlachas, Pantelis; Koumoutsakos, Petros; Sapsis, Themistoklis

2018-01-01

The prediction of extreme events, from avalanches and droughts to tsunamis and epidemics, depends on the formulation and analysis of relevant, complex dynamical systems. Such dynamical systems are characterized by high intrinsic dimensionality with extreme events having the form of rare transitions that are several standard deviations away from the mean. Such systems are not amenable to classical order-reduction methods through projection of the governing equations due to the large intrinsic dimensionality of the underlying attractor as well as the complexity of the transient events. Alternatively, data-driven techniques aim to quantify the dynamics of specific, critical modes by utilizing data-streams and by expanding the dimensionality of the reduced-order model using delayed coordinates. In turn, these methods have major limitations in regions of the phase space with sparse data, which is the case for extreme events. In this work, we develop a novel hybrid framework that complements an imperfect reduced order model, with data-streams that are integrated though a recurrent neural network (RNN) architecture. The reduced order model has the form of projected equations into a low-dimensional subspace that still contains important dynamical information about the system and it is expanded by a long short-term memory (LSTM) regularization. The LSTM-RNN is trained by analyzing the mismatch between the imperfect model and the data-streams, projected to the reduced-order space. The data-driven model assists the imperfect model in regions where data is available, while for locations where data is sparse the imperfect model still provides a baseline for the prediction of the system state. We assess the developed framework on two challenging prototype systems exhibiting extreme events. We show that the blended approach has improved performance compared with methods that use either data streams or the imperfect model alone. Notably the improvement is more significant in regions associated with extreme events, where data is sparse.

Developing a Framework for Seamless Prediction of Sub-Seasonal to Seasonal Extreme Precipitation Events in the United States.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rosendahl, D. H.; Ćwik, P.; Martin, E. R.; Basara, J. B.; Brooks, H. E.; Furtado, J. C.; Homeyer, C. R.; Lazrus, H.; Mcpherson, R. A.; Mullens, E.; Richman, M. B.; Robinson-Cook, A.

2017-12-01

Extreme precipitation events cause significant damage to homes, businesses, infrastructure, and agriculture, as well as many injures and fatalities as a result of fast-moving water or waterborne diseases. In the USA, these natural hazard events claimed the lives of more than 300 people during 2015 - 2016 alone, with total damage reaching $24.4 billion. Prior studies of extreme precipitation events have focused on the sub-daily to sub-weekly timeframes. However, many decisions for planning, preparing and resilience-building require sub-seasonal to seasonal timeframes (S2S; 14 to 90 days), but adequate forecasting tools for prediction do not exist. Therefore, the goal of this newly funded project is an enhancement in understanding of the large-scale forcing and dynamics of S2S extreme precipitation events in the United States, and improved capability for modeling and predicting such events. Here, we describe the project goals, objectives, and research activities that will take place over the next 5 years. In this project, a unique team of scientists and stakeholders will identify and understand weather and climate processes connected with the prediction of S2S extreme precipitation events by answering these research questions: 1) What are the synoptic patterns associated with, and characteristic of, S2S extreme precipitation evens in the contiguous U.S.? 2) What role, if any, do large-scale modes of climate variability play in modulating these events? 3) How predictable are S2S extreme precipitation events across temporal scales? 4) How do we create an informative prediction of S2S extreme precipitation events for policymaking and planing? This project will use observational data, high-resolution radar composites, dynamical climate models and workshops that engage stakeholders (water resource managers, emergency managers and tribal environmental professionals) in co-production of knowledge. The overarching result of this project will be predictive models to reduce of the societal and economic impacts of extreme precipitation events. Another outcome will include statistical and co-production frameworks, which could be applied across other meteorological extremes, all time scales and in other parts of the world to increase resilience to extreme meteorological events.

Sierra/Solid Mechanics 4.48 User's Guide.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Merewether, Mark Thomas; Crane, Nathan K; de Frias, Gabriel Jose

Sierra/SolidMechanics (Sierra/SM) is a Lagrangian, three-dimensional code for finite element analysis of solids and structures. It provides capabilities for explicit dynamic, implicit quasistatic and dynamic analyses. The explicit dynamics capabilities allow for the efficient and robust solution of models with extensive contact subjected to large, suddenly applied loads. For implicit problems, Sierra/SM uses a multi-level iterative solver, which enables it to effectively solve problems with large deformations, nonlinear material behavior, and contact. Sierra/SM has a versatile library of continuum and structural elements, and a large library of material models. The code is written for parallel computing environments enabling scalable solutionsmore » of extremely large problems for both implicit and explicit analyses. It is built on the SIERRA Framework, which facilitates coupling with other SIERRA mechanics codes. This document describes the functionality and input syntax for Sierra/SM.« less

Development of FB-MultiPier dynamic vessel-collision analysis models, phase 2 : [summary].

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2014-07-01

When collisions between large vessels and bridge : supports occur, they can result in significant : damage to bridge and vessel. These collisions : are extremely hazardous, often taking lives on : the vessel and the bridge. Direct costs of repair : a...

THE SURVEY OF H I IN EXTREMELY LOW-MASS DWARFS (SHIELD)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cannon, John M.; Engstrom, Eric; Allan, John

We present first results from the Survey of H I in Extremely Low-mass Dwarfs (SHIELD), a multi-configuration Expanded Very Large Array (EVLA) study of the neutral gas contents and dynamics of galaxies with H I masses in the 10{sup 6}-10{sup 7} M{sub sun} range detected by the Arecibo Legacy Fast ALFA (ALFALFA) survey. We describe the survey motivation and concept demonstration using Very Large Array imaging of six low-mass galaxies detected in early ALFALFA data products. We then describe the primary scientific goals of SHIELD and present preliminary EVLA and WIYN 3.5 m imaging of the 12 SHIELD galaxies. Withmore » only a few exceptions, the neutral gas distributions of these extremely low-mass galaxies are centrally concentrated. In only one system have we detected H I column densities higher than 10{sup 21} cm{sup -2}. Despite this, the stellar populations of all of these systems are dominated by blue stars. Further, we find ongoing star formation as traced by H{alpha} emission in 10 of the 11 galaxies with H{alpha} imaging obtained to date. Taken together these results suggest that extremely low-mass galaxies are forming stars in conditions different from those found in more massive systems. While detailed dynamical analysis requires the completion of data acquisition, the most well-resolved system is amenable to meaningful position-velocity analysis. For AGC 749237, we find well-ordered rotation of 30 km s{sup -1} at {approx}40'' distance from the dynamical center. At the adopted distance of 3.2 Mpc, this implies the presence of a {approx}>1 x 10{sup 8} M{sub sun} dark matter halo and a baryon fraction {approx}<0.1.« less

Contribution of large-scale midlatitude disturbances to hourly precipitation extremes in the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barbero, Renaud; Abatzoglou, John T.; Fowler, Hayley J.

2018-02-01

Midlatitude synoptic weather regimes account for a substantial portion of annual precipitation accumulation as well as multi-day precipitation extremes across parts of the United States (US). However, little attention has been devoted to understanding how synoptic-scale patterns contribute to hourly precipitation extremes. A majority of 1-h annual maximum precipitation (AMP) across the western US were found to be linked to two coherent midlatitude synoptic patterns: disturbances propagating along the jet stream, and cutoff upper-level lows. The influence of these two patterns on 1-h AMP varies geographically. Over 95% of 1-h AMP along the western coastal US were coincident with progressive midlatitude waves embedded within the jet stream, while over 30% of 1-h AMP across the interior western US were coincident with cutoff lows. Between 30-60% of 1-h AMP were coincident with the jet stream across the Ohio River Valley and southeastern US, whereas a a majority of 1-h AMP over the rest of central and eastern US were not found to be associated with either midlatitude synoptic features. Composite analyses for 1-h AMP days coincident to cutoff lows and jet stream show that an anomalous moisture flux and upper-level dynamics are responsible for initiating instability and setting up an environment conducive to 1-h AMP events. While hourly precipitation extremes are generally thought to be purely convective in nature, this study shows that large-scale dynamics and baroclinic disturbances may also contribute to precipitation extremes on sub-daily timescales.

Role of quasiresonant planetary wave dynamics in recent boreal spring-to-autumn extreme events

PubMed Central

Petoukhov, Vladimir; Petri, Stefan; Rahmstorf, Stefan; Coumou, Dim; Kornhuber, Kai; Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim

2016-01-01

In boreal spring-to-autumn (May-to-September) 2012 and 2013, the Northern Hemisphere (NH) has experienced a large number of severe midlatitude regional weather extremes. Here we show that a considerable part of these extremes were accompanied by highly magnified quasistationary midlatitude planetary waves with zonal wave numbers m = 6, 7, and 8. We further show that resonance conditions for these planetary waves were, in many cases, present before the onset of high-amplitude wave events, with a lead time up to 2 wk, suggesting that quasiresonant amplification (QRA) of these waves had occurred. Our results support earlier findings of an important role of the QRA mechanism in amplifying planetary waves, favoring recent NH weather extremes. PMID:27274064

Precipitation-snowmelt timing and snowmelt augmentation of large peak flow events, western Cascades, Oregon

Treesearch

Keith Jennings; Julia A. Jones

2015-01-01

This study tested multiple hydrologic mechanisms to explain snowpack dynamics in extreme rain-on-snow floods, which occur widely in the temperate and polar regions. We examined 26, 10 day large storm events over the period 1992–2012 in the H.J. Andrews Experimental Forest in western Oregon, using statistical analyses (regression, ANOVA, and wavelet coherence) of hourly...

Extreme fluctuations of active Brownian motion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pietzonka, Patrick; Kleinbeck, Kevin; Seifert, Udo

2016-05-01

In active Brownian motion, an internal propulsion mechanism interacts with translational and rotational thermal noise and other internal fluctuations to produce directed motion. We derive the distribution of its extreme fluctuations and identify its universal properties using large deviation theory. The limits of slow and fast internal dynamics give rise to a kink-like and parabolic behavior of the corresponding rate functions, respectively. For dipolar Janus particles in two- and three-dimensions interacting with a field, we predict a novel symmetry akin to, but different from, the one related to entropy production. Measurements of these extreme fluctuations could thus be used to infer properties of the underlying, often hidden, network of states.

Hydrocentric view of Agro-ecosystem Resiliency to Extreme Hydrometeorological and Climate Events in the High Plains, US.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Munoz-Arriola, Francisco; Sharma, Ashutosh; Werner, Katherine; Chacon, Juan-Carlos; Corzo, Gerald; Goyal, Manish-Kumar

2017-04-01

An increasing incidence of Hydrometeorological and Climate Extreme Events (EHCEs) is challenging food, water, and ecosystem services security at local to global contexts. This study aims to understand how a large-scale representation of agroecosystems and ecosystems respond to EHCE in the Northern Highplains, US. To track such responses the Variable Infiltration Capacity model (VIC) Land Surface Hydrology model was used and two experiments were implemented. The first experiment uses the LAI MODIS15A2 product to capture dynamic responses of vegetation with a time span from 2000 to 2013. The second experiment used a climatological fixed seasonal cycle calculated as the average from the 2000-2013 dynamic MODIS15A2 product to isolate vegetation from soil physical responses. Based on the analyses of multiple hydrological variables and state variables and high-level organization of agroecosystems and ecosystems, we evidence how the influence of droughts and anomalously wet conditions affect hydrological resilience at large scale.

Automated adaptive inference of phenomenological dynamical models.

PubMed

Daniels, Bryan C; Nemenman, Ilya

2015-08-21

Dynamics of complex systems is often driven by large and intricate networks of microscopic interactions, whose sheer size obfuscates understanding. With limited experimental data, many parameters of such dynamics are unknown, and thus detailed, mechanistic models risk overfitting and making faulty predictions. At the other extreme, simple ad hoc models often miss defining features of the underlying systems. Here we develop an approach that instead constructs phenomenological, coarse-grained models of network dynamics that automatically adapt their complexity to the available data. Such adaptive models produce accurate predictions even when microscopic details are unknown. The approach is computationally tractable, even for a relatively large number of dynamical variables. Using simulated data, it correctly infers the phase space structure for planetary motion, avoids overfitting in a biological signalling system and produces accurate predictions for yeast glycolysis with tens of data points and over half of the interacting species unobserved.

Automated adaptive inference of phenomenological dynamical models

PubMed Central

Daniels, Bryan C.; Nemenman, Ilya

2015-01-01

Dynamics of complex systems is often driven by large and intricate networks of microscopic interactions, whose sheer size obfuscates understanding. With limited experimental data, many parameters of such dynamics are unknown, and thus detailed, mechanistic models risk overfitting and making faulty predictions. At the other extreme, simple ad hoc models often miss defining features of the underlying systems. Here we develop an approach that instead constructs phenomenological, coarse-grained models of network dynamics that automatically adapt their complexity to the available data. Such adaptive models produce accurate predictions even when microscopic details are unknown. The approach is computationally tractable, even for a relatively large number of dynamical variables. Using simulated data, it correctly infers the phase space structure for planetary motion, avoids overfitting in a biological signalling system and produces accurate predictions for yeast glycolysis with tens of data points and over half of the interacting species unobserved. PMID:26293508

Record Balkan floods of 2014 linked to planetary wave resonance.

PubMed

Stadtherr, Lisa; Coumou, Dim; Petoukhov, Vladimir; Petri, Stefan; Rahmstorf, Stefan

2016-04-01

In May 2014, the Balkans were hit by a Vb-type cyclone that brought disastrous flooding and severe damage to Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia, and Croatia. Vb cyclones migrate from the Mediterranean, where they absorb warm and moist air, to the north, often causing flooding in central/eastern Europe. Extreme rainfall events are increasing on a global scale, and both thermodynamic and dynamical mechanisms play a role. Where thermodynamic aspects are generally well understood, there is large uncertainty associated with current and future changes in dynamics. We study the climatic and meteorological factors that influenced the catastrophic flooding in the Balkans, where we focus on large-scale circulation. We show that the Vb cyclone was unusually stationary, bringing extreme rainfall for several consecutive days, and that this situation was likely linked to a quasi-stationary circumglobal Rossby wave train. We provide evidence that this quasi-stationary wave was amplified by wave resonance. Statistical analysis of daily spring rainfall over the Balkan region reveals significant upward trends over 1950-2014, especially in the high quantiles relevant for flooding events. These changes cannot be explained by simple thermodynamic arguments, and we thus argue that dynamical processes likely played a role in increasing flood risks over the Balkans.

Extreme weather: Subtropical floods and tropical cyclones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shaevitz, Daniel A.

Extreme weather events have a large effect on society. As such, it is important to understand these events and to project how they may change in a future, warmer climate. The aim of this thesis is to develop a deeper understanding of two types of extreme weather events: subtropical floods and tropical cyclones (TCs). In the subtropics, the latitude is high enough that quasi-geostrophic dynamics are at least qualitatively relevant, while low enough that moisture may be abundant and convection strong. Extratropical extreme precipitation events are usually associated with large-scale flow disturbances, strong ascent, and large latent heat release. In the first part of this thesis, I examine the possible triggering of convection by the large-scale dynamics and investigate the coupling between the two. Specifically two examples of extreme precipitation events in the subtropics are analyzed, the 2010 and 2014 floods of India and Pakistan and the 2015 flood of Texas and Oklahoma. I invert the quasi-geostrophic omega equation to decompose the large-scale vertical motion profile to components due to synoptic forcing and diabatic heating. Additionally, I present model results from within the Column Quasi-Geostrophic framework. A single column model and cloud-revolving model are forced with the large-scale forcings (other than large-scale vertical motion) computed from the quasi-geostrophic omega equation with input data from a reanalysis data set, and the large-scale vertical motion is diagnosed interactively with the simulated convection. It is found that convection was triggered primarily by mechanically forced orographic ascent over the Himalayas during the India/Pakistan flood and by upper-level Potential Vorticity disturbances during the Texas/Oklahoma flood. Furthermore, a climate attribution analysis was conducted for the Texas/Oklahoma flood and it is found that anthropogenic climate change was responsible for a small amount of rainfall during the event but the intensity of this event may be greatly increased if it occurs in a future climate. In the second part of this thesis, I examine the ability of high-resolution global atmospheric models to simulate TCs. Specifically, I present an intercomparison of several models' ability to simulate the global characteristics of TCs in the current climate. This is a necessary first step before using these models to project future changes in TCs. Overall, the models were able to reproduce the geographic distribution of TCs reasonably well, with some of the models performing remarkably well. The intensity of TCs varied widely between the models, with some of this difference being due to model resolution.

Matrix Perturbation Techniques in Structural Dynamics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Caughey, T. K.

1973-01-01

Matrix perturbation are developed techniques which can be used in the dynamical analysis of structures where the range of numerical values in the matrices extreme or where the nature of the damping matrix requires that complex valued eigenvalues and eigenvectors be used. The techniques can be advantageously used in a variety of fields such as earthquake engineering, ocean engineering, aerospace engineering and other fields concerned with the dynamical analysis of large complex structures or systems of second order differential equations. A number of simple examples are included to illustrate the techniques.

Characteristics of Extreme Geoelectric Fields and Their Possible Causes: Localized Peak Enhancements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pulkkinen, A. A.; Ngwira, C. M.; Bernabeu, E.; Eichner, J.; Viljanen, A.; Crowley, G.

2015-12-01

One of the major challenges pertaining to extreme geomagnetic storms is to understand the basic processes associated with the development of dynamic magnetosphere-ionosphere currents, which generate large induced surface geoelectric fields. Previous studies point out the existence of localized peak geoelectric field enhancements during extreme storms. We examined induced global geoelectric fields derived from ground-based magnetometer recordings for 12 extreme geomagnetic storms between the years 1982--2005. However for the present study, an in-depth analysis was performed for two important extreme storms, October 29, 2003 and March 13, 1989. The primary purpose of this paper is to provide further evidence on the existence of localized peak geoelectric field enhancements, and to show that the structure of the geoelectric field during these localized extremes at single sites can differ greatly from globally and regionally averaged fields. Although the physical processes that govern the development of these localized extremes are still not clear, we discuss some possible causes.

Large Area Field of View for Fast Temporal Resolution Astronomy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Covarrubias, Ricardo A.

2018-01-01

Scientific CMOS (sCMOS) technology is especially relevant for high temporal resolution astronomy combining high resolution, large field of view with very fast frame rates, without sacrificing ultra-low noise performance. Solar Astronomy, Near Earth Object detections, Space Debris Tracking, Transient Observations or Wavefront Sensing are among the many applications this technology can be utilized. Andor Technology is currently developing the next-generation, very large area sCMOS camera with an extremely low noise, rapid frame rates, high resolution and wide dynamic range.

INJECTION OPTICS FOR THE JLEIC ION COLLIDER RING

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Morozov, Vasiliy; Derbenev, Yaroslav; Lin, Fanglei

2016-05-01

The Jefferson Lab Electron-Ion Collider (JLEIC) will accelerate protons and ions from 8 GeV to 100 GeV. A very low beta function at the Interaction Point (IP) is needed to achieve the required luminosity. One consequence of the low beta optics is that the beta function in the final focusing (FF) quadrupoles is extremely high. This leads to a large beam size in these magnets as well as strong sensitivity to errors which limits the dynamic aperture. These effects are stronger at injection energy where the beam size is maximum, and therefore very large aperture FF magnets are required tomore » allow a large dynamic aperture. A standard solution is a relaxed injection optics with IP beta function large enough to provide a reasonable FF aperture. This also reduces the effects of FF errors resulting in a larger dynamic aperture at injection. We describe the ion ring injection optics design as well as a beta-squeeze transition from the injection to collision optics.« less

Influence of hurricane-related activity on North American extreme precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barlow, Mathew

2010-05-01

Individual hurricanes and their remnants can produce exceptionally intense rainfall, and the associated flooding, even independent of storm surge, is one of the leading causes of hurricane-related death in the U.S. Despite the catastrophic societal costs of hurricanes and the considerable recent attention to possible trends in strength and number, little is known about the general contribution of hurricane-related activity to extreme precipitation over North America and the underlying dynamical mechanisms. Here we show, based on a 25-year observational analysis, that there are important contributions to the occurrence of extreme precipitation events over more than half of North America, including a pronounced signal over northern and inland areas, associated with an average span of influence that extends to several hundred kilometers. Large-scale vertical velocity, maximum wind speed, and tropical/extratropical character are important factors in the strength and range of influence, and the pattern of influence depends on whether an absolute or relative measure of precipitation is considered. Associated changes in stability, moisture, and vertical motion are analyzed to investigate the dynamics of the influence: the largest changes are in vertical motion, with the hurricane-related activity bringing deep tropical values even to inland and high latitude areas, consistent with the occurrence of very heavy, tropical-like precipitation. While the maximum contribution of hurricane-related activity to mean precipitation is generally less than 25% even for the most-affected coastal regions, the contribution to extreme events is much larger: well over 50% for several regions and exceeding 25% for large swaths of the continent. Typical track density plots do not capture the activity's influence on extreme precipitation.

Dynamic fracture of tantalum under extreme tensile stress.

PubMed

Albertazzi, Bruno; Ozaki, Norimasa; Zhakhovsky, Vasily; Faenov, Anatoly; Habara, Hideaki; Harmand, Marion; Hartley, Nicholas; Ilnitsky, Denis; Inogamov, Nail; Inubushi, Yuichi; Ishikawa, Tetsuya; Katayama, Tetsuo; Koyama, Takahisa; Koenig, Michel; Krygier, Andrew; Matsuoka, Takeshi; Matsuyama, Satoshi; McBride, Emma; Migdal, Kirill Petrovich; Morard, Guillaume; Ohashi, Haruhiko; Okuchi, Takuo; Pikuz, Tatiana; Purevjav, Narangoo; Sakata, Osami; Sano, Yasuhisa; Sato, Tomoko; Sekine, Toshimori; Seto, Yusuke; Takahashi, Kenjiro; Tanaka, Kazuo; Tange, Yoshinori; Togashi, Tadashi; Tono, Kensuke; Umeda, Yuhei; Vinci, Tommaso; Yabashi, Makina; Yabuuchi, Toshinori; Yamauchi, Kazuto; Yumoto, Hirokatsu; Kodama, Ryosuke

2017-06-01

The understanding of fracture phenomena of a material at extremely high strain rates is a key issue for a wide variety of scientific research ranging from applied science and technological developments to fundamental science such as laser-matter interaction and geology. Despite its interest, its study relies on a fine multiscale description, in between the atomic scale and macroscopic processes, so far only achievable by large-scale atomic simulations. Direct ultrafast real-time monitoring of dynamic fracture (spallation) at the atomic lattice scale with picosecond time resolution was beyond the reach of experimental techniques. We show that the coupling between a high-power optical laser pump pulse and a femtosecond x-ray probe pulse generated by an x-ray free electron laser allows detection of the lattice dynamics in a tantalum foil at an ultrahigh strain rate of [Formula: see text] ~2 × 10 8 to 3.5 × 10 8 s -1 . A maximal density drop of 8 to 10%, associated with the onset of spallation at a spall strength of ~17 GPa, was directly measured using x-ray diffraction. The experimental results of density evolution agree well with large-scale atomistic simulations of shock wave propagation and fracture of the sample. Our experimental technique opens a new pathway to the investigation of ultrahigh strain-rate phenomena in materials at the atomic scale, including high-speed crack dynamics and stress-induced solid-solid phase transitions.

Dynamic fracture of tantalum under extreme tensile stress

PubMed Central

Albertazzi, Bruno; Ozaki, Norimasa; Zhakhovsky, Vasily; Faenov, Anatoly; Habara, Hideaki; Harmand, Marion; Hartley, Nicholas; Ilnitsky, Denis; Inogamov, Nail; Inubushi, Yuichi; Ishikawa, Tetsuya; Katayama, Tetsuo; Koyama, Takahisa; Koenig, Michel; Krygier, Andrew; Matsuoka, Takeshi; Matsuyama, Satoshi; McBride, Emma; Migdal, Kirill Petrovich; Morard, Guillaume; Ohashi, Haruhiko; Okuchi, Takuo; Pikuz, Tatiana; Purevjav, Narangoo; Sakata, Osami; Sano, Yasuhisa; Sato, Tomoko; Sekine, Toshimori; Seto, Yusuke; Takahashi, Kenjiro; Tanaka, Kazuo; Tange, Yoshinori; Togashi, Tadashi; Tono, Kensuke; Umeda, Yuhei; Vinci, Tommaso; Yabashi, Makina; Yabuuchi, Toshinori; Yamauchi, Kazuto; Yumoto, Hirokatsu; Kodama, Ryosuke

2017-01-01

The understanding of fracture phenomena of a material at extremely high strain rates is a key issue for a wide variety of scientific research ranging from applied science and technological developments to fundamental science such as laser-matter interaction and geology. Despite its interest, its study relies on a fine multiscale description, in between the atomic scale and macroscopic processes, so far only achievable by large-scale atomic simulations. Direct ultrafast real-time monitoring of dynamic fracture (spallation) at the atomic lattice scale with picosecond time resolution was beyond the reach of experimental techniques. We show that the coupling between a high-power optical laser pump pulse and a femtosecond x-ray probe pulse generated by an x-ray free electron laser allows detection of the lattice dynamics in a tantalum foil at an ultrahigh strain rate of ε. ~2 × 108 to 3.5 × 108 s−1. A maximal density drop of 8 to 10%, associated with the onset of spallation at a spall strength of ~17 GPa, was directly measured using x-ray diffraction. The experimental results of density evolution agree well with large-scale atomistic simulations of shock wave propagation and fracture of the sample. Our experimental technique opens a new pathway to the investigation of ultrahigh strain-rate phenomena in materials at the atomic scale, including high-speed crack dynamics and stress-induced solid-solid phase transitions. PMID:28630909

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chen, Gang

Mid-latitude extreme weather events are responsible for a large part of climate-related damage. Yet large uncertainties remain in climate model projections of heat waves, droughts, and heavy rain/snow events on regional scales, limiting our ability to effectively use these projections for climate adaptation and mitigation. These uncertainties can be attributed to both the lack of spatial resolution in the models, and to the lack of a dynamical understanding of these extremes. The approach of this project is to relate the fine-scale features to the large scales in current climate simulations, seasonal re-forecasts, and climate change projections in a very widemore » range of models, including the atmospheric and coupled models of ECMWF over a range of horizontal resolutions (125 to 10 km), aqua-planet configuration of the Model for Prediction Across Scales and High Order Method Modeling Environments (resolutions ranging from 240 km – 7.5 km) with various physics suites, and selected CMIP5 model simulations. The large scale circulation will be quantified both on the basis of the well tested preferred circulation regime approach, and very recently developed measures, the finite amplitude Wave Activity (FAWA) and its spectrum. The fine scale structures related to extremes will be diagnosed following the latest approaches in the literature. The goal is to use the large scale measures as indicators of the probability of occurrence of the finer scale structures, and hence extreme events. These indicators will then be applied to the CMIP5 models and time-slice projections of a future climate.« less

Order flow dynamics around extreme price changes on an emerging stock market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mu, Guo-Hua; Zhou, Wei-Xing; Chen, Wei; Kertész, János

2010-07-01

We study the dynamics of order flows around large intraday price changes using ultra-high-frequency data from the Shenzhen Stock Exchange. We find a significant reversal of price for both intraday price decreases and increases with a permanent price impact. The volatility, the volume of different types of orders, the bid-ask spread and the volume imbalance increase before the extreme events and decay slowly as a power law, which forms a well-established peak. The volume of buy market orders increases faster and the corresponding peak appears earlier than for sell market orders around positive events, while the volume peak of sell market orders leads buy market orders in the magnitude and time around negative events. When orders are divided into four groups according to their aggressiveness, we find that the behaviors of order volume and order number are similar, except for buy limit orders and canceled orders that the peak of order number postpones 2 min later after the peak of order volume, implying that investors placing large orders are more informed and play a central role in large price fluctuations. We also study the relative rates of different types of orders and find differences in the dynamics of relative rates between buy orders and sell orders and between individual investors and institutional investors. There is evidence that institutions behave very differently from individuals and that they have more aggressive strategies. Combining these findings, we conclude that institutional investors are better informed and play a more influential role in driving large price fluctuations.

Inverted Barometer Contributions to Accelerated and Extreme Annual Mean Sea Level Changes Along the East Coast of North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Piecuch, C. G.; Ponte, R. M.

2015-12-01

Recent works have interpreted accelerated and extreme sea level (SL) changes along the northeast coast of North America primarily in terms of dynamic changes related to the meridional overturning or coastal circulations. Isostatic changes related to surface atmospheric pressure loading —the inverted barometer (IB) effect— have been deemed relatively unimportant, but a comprehensive analysis of the IB effect has been lacking. In this work, we use five different atmospheric pressure products to analyze the influence of the IB effect on annual mean SL from tide gauge records. Consistently across all products, the IB effect accounts for about 50% of the magnitude of a recent extreme event of SL rise in 2009 along Atlantic Canada and New England. In fact, the unique nature of the event was largely a result of the extreme IB signal. Estimated IB effects also amount to about 10-30% of recent multidecadal SL accelerations over the Mid-Atlantic Bight and Southern New England. These findings reiterate the need for careful estimation of IB effects for studies that want to interpret observed SL in terms of dynamic ocean circulation changes.

Extreme-volatility dynamics in crude oil markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, Xiong-Fei; Zheng, Bo; Qiu, Tian; Ren, Fei

2017-02-01

Based on concepts and methods from statistical physics, we investigate extreme-volatility dynamics in the crude oil markets, using the high-frequency data from 2006 to 2010 and the daily data from 1986 to 2016. The dynamic relaxation of extreme volatilities is described by a power law, whose exponents usually depend on the magnitude of extreme volatilities. In particular, the relaxation before and after extreme volatilities is time-reversal symmetric at the high-frequency time scale, but time-reversal asymmetric at the daily time scale. This time-reversal asymmetry is mainly induced by exogenous events. However, the dynamic relaxation after exogenous events exhibits the same characteristics as that after endogenous events. An interacting herding model both with and without exogenous driving forces could qualitatively describe the extreme-volatility dynamics.

Equivalent reduced model technique development for nonlinear system dynamic response

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thibault, Louis; Avitabile, Peter; Foley, Jason; Wolfson, Janet

2013-04-01

The dynamic response of structural systems commonly involves nonlinear effects. Often times, structural systems are made up of several components, whose individual behavior is essentially linear compared to the total assembled system. However, the assembly of linear components using highly nonlinear connection elements or contact regions causes the entire system to become nonlinear. Conventional transient nonlinear integration of the equations of motion can be extremely computationally intensive, especially when the finite element models describing the components are very large and detailed. In this work, the equivalent reduced model technique (ERMT) is developed to address complicated nonlinear contact problems. ERMT utilizes a highly accurate model reduction scheme, the System equivalent reduction expansion process (SEREP). Extremely reduced order models that provide dynamic characteristics of linear components, which are interconnected with highly nonlinear connection elements, are formulated with SEREP for the dynamic response evaluation using direct integration techniques. The full-space solution will be compared to the response obtained using drastically reduced models to make evident the usefulness of the technique for a variety of analytical cases.

Broadband dynamic phase matching of high-order harmonic generation by a high-peak-power soliton pump field in a gas-filled hollow photonic-crystal fiber.

PubMed

Serebryannikov, Evgenii E; von der Linde, Dietrich; Zheltikov, Aleksei M

2008-05-01

Hollow-core photonic-crystal fibers are shown to enable dynamically phase-matched high-order harmonic generation by a gigawatt soliton pump field. With a careful design of the waveguide structure and an appropriate choice of input-pulse and gas parameters, a remarkably broadband phase matching can be achieved for a soliton pump field and a large group of optical harmonics in the soft-x-ray-extreme-ultraviolet spectral range.

Segmentation of Unstructured Datasets

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bhat, Smitha

1996-01-01

Datasets generated by computer simulations and experiments in Computational Fluid Dynamics tend to be extremely large and complex. It is difficult to visualize these datasets using standard techniques like Volume Rendering and Ray Casting. Object Segmentation provides a technique to extract and quantify regions of interest within these massive datasets. This thesis explores basic algorithms to extract coherent amorphous regions from two-dimensional and three-dimensional scalar unstructured grids. The techniques are applied to datasets from Computational Fluid Dynamics and from Finite Element Analysis.

Predictability and possible earlier awareness of extreme precipitation across Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lavers, David; Pappenberger, Florian; Richardson, David; Zsoter, Ervin

2017-04-01

Extreme hydrological events can cause large socioeconomic damages in Europe. In winter, a large proportion of these flood episodes are associated with atmospheric rivers, a region of intense water vapour transport within the warm sector of extratropical cyclones. When preparing for such extreme events, forecasts of precipitation from numerical weather prediction models or river discharge forecasts from hydrological models are generally used. Given the strong link between water vapour transport (integrated vapour transport IVT) and heavy precipitation, it is possible that IVT could be used to warn of extreme events. Furthermore, as IVT is located in extratropical cyclones, it is hypothesized to be a more predictable variable due to its link with synoptic-scale atmospheric dynamics. In this research, we firstly provide an overview of the predictability of IVT and precipitation forecasts, and secondly introduce and evaluate the ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) for IVT. The EFI is a tool that has been developed to evaluate how ensemble forecasts differ from the model climate, thus revealing the extremeness of the forecast. The ability of the IVT EFI to capture extreme precipitation across Europe during winter 2013/14, 2014/15, and 2015/16 is presented. The results show that the IVT EFI is more capable than the precipitation EFI of identifying extreme precipitation in forecast week 2 during forecasts initialized in a positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) phase. However, the precipitation EFI is superior during the negative NAO phase and at shorter lead times. An IVT EFI example is shown for storm Desmond in December 2015 highlighting its potential to identify upcoming hydrometeorological extremes.

Oscillating Droplets and Incompressible Liquids: Slow-Motion Visualization of Experiments with Fluids

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Vollmer, Michael; Mollmann, Klaus-Peter

2012-01-01

We present fascinating simple demonstration experiments recorded with high-speed cameras in the field of fluid dynamics. Examples include oscillations of falling droplets, effects happening upon impact of a liquid droplet into a liquid, the disintegration of extremely large droplets in free fall and the consequences of incompressibility. (Contains…

An Unusual Hydrophobic Core Confers Extreme Flexibility to HEAT Repeat Proteins

PubMed Central

Kappel, Christian; Zachariae, Ulrich; Dölker, Nicole; Grubmüller, Helmut

2010-01-01

Alpha-solenoid proteins are suggested to constitute highly flexible macromolecules, whose structural variability and large surface area is instrumental in many important protein-protein binding processes. By equilibrium and nonequilibrium molecular dynamics simulations, we show that importin-β, an archetypical α-solenoid, displays unprecedentedly large and fully reversible elasticity. Our stretching molecular dynamics simulations reveal full elasticity over up to twofold end-to-end extensions compared to its bound state. Despite the absence of any long-range intramolecular contacts, the protein can return to its equilibrium structure to within 3 Å backbone RMSD after the release of mechanical stress. We find that this extreme degree of flexibility is based on an unusually flexible hydrophobic core that differs substantially from that of structurally similar but more rigid globular proteins. In that respect, the core of importin-β resembles molten globules. The elastic behavior is dominated by nonpolar interactions between HEAT repeats, combined with conformational entropic effects. Our results suggest that α-solenoid structures such as importin-β may bridge the molecular gap between completely structured and intrinsically disordered proteins. PMID:20816072

Uncertainties in Projecting Future Changes in Atmospheric Rivers and Their Impacts on Heavy Precipitation over Europe

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gao, Yang; Lu, Jian; Leung, L. Ruby

This study investigates the North Atlantic atmospheric rivers (ARs) making landfall over western Europe in the present and future climate from the multi-model ensemble of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Overall, CMIP5 captures the seasonal and spatial variations of historical landfalling AR days, with the large inter-model variability strongly correlated with the inter-model spread of historical jet position. Under RCP 8.5, AR frequency is projected to increase a few times by the end of this century. While thermodynamics plays a dominate role in the future increase of ARs, wind changes associated with the midlatitude jet shifts alsomore » significantly contribute to AR changes, resulting in dipole change patterns in all seasons. In the North Atlantic, the model projected jet shifts are strongly correlated with the simulated historical jet position. As models exhibit predominantly equatorward biases in the historical jet position, the large poleward jet shifts reduce AR days south of the historical mean jet position through the dynamical connections between the jet positions and AR days. Using the observed historical jet position as an emergent constraint, dynamical effects further increase AR days in the future above the large increases due to thermodynamical effects. In the future, both total and extreme precipitation induced by AR contribute more to the seasonal mean and extreme precipitation compared to present primarily because of the increase in AR frequency. While AR precipitation intensity generally increases more relative to the increase in integrated vapor transport, AR extreme precipitation intensity increases much less.« less

High Sensitive Scintillation Observations At Very Low Frequencies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Konovalenko, A. A.; Falkovich, I. S.; Kalinichenko, N. N.; Olyak, M. R.; Lecacheux, A.; Rosolen, C.; Bougeret, J.-L.; Rucker, H. O.; Tokarev, Yu.

The observation of interplanetary scintillations of compact radio sources is powerful method of solar wind diagnostics. This method is developed mainly at decimeter- meter wavelengths. New possibilities are opened at extremely low frequencies (decameter waves) especially at large elongations. Now this approach is being actively developed using high effective decameter antennas UTR-2, URAN and Nancay Decameter Array. New class of back-end facility like high dynamic range, high resolution digital spectral processors, as well as dynamic spectra determination ideology give us new opportunities for distinguishing of the ionospheric and interplanetary scintillations and for observations of large number of radio sources, whith different angular sizes and elongations, even for the cases of rather weak objects.

Partially Filled Aperture Interferometric Telescopes: Achieving Large Aperture and Coronagraphic Performance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moretto, G.; Kuhn, J.; Langlois, M.; Berdugyna, S.; Tallon, M.

2017-09-01

Telescopes larger than currently planned 30-m class instruments must break the mass-aperture scaling relationship of the Keck-generation of multi-segmented telescopes. Partially filled aperture, but highly redundant baseline interferometric instruments may achieve both large aperture and high dynamic range. The PLANETS FOUNDATION group has explored hybrid telescope-interferometer concepts for narrow-field optical systems that exhibit coronagraphic performance over narrow fields-of-view. This paper describes how the Colossus and Exo-Life Finder telescope designs achieve 10x lower moving masses than current Extremely Large Telescopes.

Viscous versus inviscid exact coherent states in high Reynolds number wall flows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Montemuro, Brandon; Klewicki, Joe; White, Chris; Chini, Greg

2017-11-01

Streamwise-averaged motions consisting of streamwise-oriented streaks and vortices are key components of exact coherent states (ECS) arising in incompressible wall-bounded shear flows. These invariant solutions are believed to provide a scaffold in phase space for the turbulent dynamics realized at large Reynolds number Re . Nevertheless, many ECS, including upper-branch states, have a large- Re asymptotic structure in which the effective Reynolds number governing the streak and roll dynamics is order unity. Although these viscous ECS very likely play a role in the dynamics of the near-wall region, they cannot be relevant to the inertial layer, where the leading-order mean dynamics are known to be inviscid. In particular, viscous ECS cannot account for the observed regions of quasi-uniform streamwise momentum and interlaced internal shear layers (or `vortical fissures') within the inertial layer. In this work, a large- Re asymptotic analysis is performed to extend the existing self-sustaining-process/vortex-wave-interaction theory to account for largely inviscid ECS. The analysis highlights feedback mechanisms between the fissures and uniform momentum zones that can enable their self-sustenance at extreme Reynolds number. NSF CBET Award 1437851.

Inflationary dynamics for matrix eigenvalue problems

PubMed Central

Heller, Eric J.; Kaplan, Lev; Pollmann, Frank

2008-01-01

Many fields of science and engineering require finding eigenvalues and eigenvectors of large matrices. The solutions can represent oscillatory modes of a bridge, a violin, the disposition of electrons around an atom or molecule, the acoustic modes of a concert hall, or hundreds of other physical quantities. Often only the few eigenpairs with the lowest or highest frequency (extremal solutions) are needed. Methods that have been developed over the past 60 years to solve such problems include the Lanczos algorithm, Jacobi–Davidson techniques, and the conjugate gradient method. Here, we present a way to solve the extremal eigenvalue/eigenvector problem, turning it into a nonlinear classical mechanical system with a modified Lagrangian constraint. The constraint induces exponential inflationary growth of the desired extremal solutions. PMID:18511564

Conformation-controlled binding kinetics of antibodies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Galanti, Marta; Fanelli, Duccio; Piazza, Francesco

2016-01-01

Antibodies are large, extremely flexible molecules, whose internal dynamics is certainly key to their astounding ability to bind antigens of all sizes, from small hormones to giant viruses. In this paper, we build a shape-based coarse-grained model of IgG molecules and show that it can be used to generate 3D conformations in agreement with single-molecule Cryo-Electron Tomography data. Furthermore, we elaborate a theoretical model that can be solved exactly to compute the binding rate constant of a small antigen to an IgG in a prescribed 3D conformation. Our model shows that the antigen binding process is tightly related to the internal dynamics of the IgG. Our findings pave the way for further investigation of the subtle connection between the dynamics and the function of large, flexible multi-valent molecular machines.

Dynamical effects of stellar companions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Naoz, Smadar

2015-08-01

The fraction of stellar binaries in the field is extremely high (about 40% - 70% for > 1 Msun stars), and thus, given this frequency, a large fraction of all exoplanetary systems may reside in binaries. While close-in giant planets tend to be found preferentially in binary stellar systems it seems that the frequency of giant planets in close binaries (<100 AU) is significantly lower than in the overall population. Stellar companions’ gravitational perturbations may significantly alter the planetary orbits around their partner on secular timescales. They can drive planets to large eccentric orbits which can either result in plunging these planets into the star or shrinking their orbits and forming short period planets. I will review the dynamical effects stellar binaries have on a planetary systems. I will also present new results on the influence that stellar evolution has on the dynamical processes in these systems.

High-Resolution Near-Infrared Spectroscopy of an Equivalent Width-Selected Sample of Starbursting Dwarf Galaxies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Maseda, Michael V.; VanDerWeL, Arjen; DaChuna, Elisabete; Rix, Hans-Walter; Pacafichi, Camilla; Momcheva, Ivelina; Brammer, Gabriel B.; Franx, Marijn; VanDokkum, Pieter; Bell, Eric F.;

Forest bat population dynamics over 14 years at a climate refuge: Effects of timber harvesting and weather extremes.

PubMed

Law, Bradley S; Chidel, Mark; Law, Peter R

2018-01-01

Long-term data are needed to explore the interaction of weather extremes with habitat alteration; in particular, can 'refugia' buffer population dynamics against climate change and are they robust to disturbances such as timber harvesting. Because forest bats are good indicators of ecosystem health, we used 14 years (1999-2012) of mark-recapture data from a suite of small tree-hollow roosting bats to estimate survival, abundance and body condition in harvested and unharvested forest and over extreme El Niño and La Niña weather events in southeastern Australia. Trapping was replicated within an experimental forest, located in a climate refuge, with different timber harvesting treatments. We trapped foraging bats and banded 3043 with a 32% retrap rate. Mark-recapture analyses allowed for dependence of survival on time, species, sex, logging treatment and for transients. A large portion of the population remained resident, with a maximum time to recapture of nine years. The effect of logging history (unlogged vs 16-30 years post-logging regrowth) on apparent survival was minor and species specific, with no detectable effect for two species, a positive effect for one and negative for the other. There was no effect of logging history on abundance or body condition for any of these species. Apparent survival of residents was not strongly influenced by weather variation (except for the smallest species), unlike previous studies outside of refugia. Despite annual variation in abundance and body condition across the 14 years of the study, no relationship with extreme weather was evident. The location of our study area in a climate refuge potentially buffered bat population dynamics from extreme weather. These results support the value of climate refugia in mitigating climate change impacts, though the lack of an external control highlights the need for further studies on the functioning of climate refugia. Relatively stable population dynamics were not compromised by timber harvesting, suggesting ecologically sustainable harvesting may be compatible with climate refugia.

Dynamic fracture of tantalum under extreme tensile stress

DOE PAGES

Albertazzi, Bruno; Ozaki, Norimasa; Zhakhovsky, Vasily; ...

2017-06-02

The understanding of fracture phenomena of a material at extremely high strain rates is a key issue for a wide variety of scientific research ranging from applied science and technological developments to fundamental science such as laser-matter interaction and geology. Despite its interest, its study relies on a fine multiscale description, in between the atomic scale and macroscopic processes, so far only achievable by large-scale atomic simulations. Direct ultrafast real-time monitoring of dynamic fracture (spallation) at the atomic lattice scale with picosecond time resolution was beyond the reach of experimental techniques. We show that the coupling between a high-power opticalmore » laser pump pulse and a femtosecond x-ray probe pulse generated by an x-ray free electron laser allows detection of the lattice dynamics in a tantalum foil at an ultrahigh strain rate of Embedded Image ~2 × 10 8 to 3.5 × 10 8 s -1. A maximal density drop of 8 to 10%, associated with the onset of spallation at a spall strength of ~17 GPa, was directly measured using x-ray diffraction. The experimental results of density evolution agree well with large-scale atomistic simulations of shock wave propagation and fracture of the sample. Our experimental technique opens a new pathway to the investigation of ultrahigh strain-rate phenomena in materials at the atomic scale, including high-speed crack dynamics and stress-induced solid-solid phase transitions.« less

Force Field Accelerated Density Functional Theory Molecular Dynamics for Simulation of Reactive Systems at Extreme Conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lindsey, Rebecca; Goldman, Nir; Fried, Laurence

2017-06-01

Atomistic modeling of chemistry at extreme conditions remains a challenge, despite continuing advances in computing resources and simulation tools. While first principles methods provide a powerful predictive tool, the time and length scales associated with chemistry at extreme conditions (ns and μm, respectively) largely preclude extension of such models to molecular dynamics. In this work, we develop a simulation approach that retains the accuracy of density functional theory (DFT) while decreasing computational effort by several orders of magnitude. We generate n-body descriptions for atomic interactions by mapping forces arising from short density functional theory (DFT) trajectories on to simple Chebyshev polynomial series. We examine the importance of including greater than 2-body interactions, model transferability to different state points, and discuss approaches to ensure smooth and reasonable model shape outside of the distance domain sampled by the DFT training set. This work was performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under Contract DE-AC52-07NA27344.

Force Field Accelerated Density Functional Theory Molecular Dynamics for Simulation of Reactive Systems at Extreme Conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lindsey, Rebecca; Goldman, Nir; Fried, Laurence

Understanding chemistry at extreme conditions is crucial in fields including geochemistry, astrobiology, and alternative energy. First principles methods can provide valuable microscopic insights into such systems while circumventing the risks of physical experiments, however the time and length scales associated with chemistry at extreme conditions (ns and μm, respectively) largely preclude extension of such models to molecular dynamics. In this work, we develop a simulation approach that retains the accuracy of density functional theory (DFT) while decreasing computational effort by several orders of magnitude. We generate n-body descriptions for atomic interactions by mapping forces arising from short density functional theory (DFT) trajectories on to simple Chebyshev polynomial series. We examine the importance of including greater than 2-body interactions, model transferability to different state points, and discuss approaches to ensure smooth and reasonable model shape outside of the distance domain sampled by the DFT training set. This work performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under Contract DE-AC52-07NA27344.

Hydroclimatic Extremes and Cholera Dynamics in the 21st Century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akanda, A. S.; Jutla, A. S.; Islam, S.

2012-12-01

Cholera, an acute water-borne diarrheal illness, has reemerged as a significant health threat across much of the developing world. Despite major advances in the ecological and the microbiological understanding of the causative agent, V. cholerae, the role of the underlying climatic and environmental processes in propagating transmission is not adequately understood. Recent findings suggest a more prominent role of hydroclimatic extremes - droughts and floods - on the unique dual cholera peaks in the Bengal Delta region of South Asia, the native homeland of cholera. Increasing water scarcity and abundance, and coastal sea-level rise, influenced by changing climate patterns and large-scale climatic phenomena, is likely to adversely impact cholera transmission in South Asia. We focus on understanding how associated changes in macro-scale conditions in this region will impact micro-scale processes related to cholera in coming decades. We use the PRECIS Regional Climate Model over the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) basin region to simulate detailed high resolution projections of climate patterns for the 21st century. Precipitation outputs are analyzed for the 1980-2040 period to identify the trends and changes in hydroclimatic extremes and potential impacts on cholera dynamics over the next three decades (2010-2040), in relation to the cholera surveillance operations over the past three decades (1980-2010). We find that an increased number of extreme precipitation events with prolonged dry periods in the Ganges basin region will likely adversely affect dry season cholera outbreaks. Increased monsoon precipitation volumes in the Brahmaputra basin catchments are likely to cause record floods and subsequently trigger large epidemics in downstream areas. Our results provide new insight by identifying the changes in the two distinctly different, pre and post monsoon, cholera transmission mechanisms related to large-scale climatic controls that prevail in the region. A quantitative understanding of the changes in seasonal hydroclimatic controls and underlying dominant processes will form the basis for forecasting future epidemic cholera outbreaks in light of changing climate patterns.

Beyond the extreme: Recovery dynamics following heat and drought stress in trees

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruehr, N.; Duarte, A. G.; Arneth, A.

2016-12-01

Plant recovery processes following extreme events can have profound impacts on forest carbon and water cycling. However, large knowledge gaps persist on recovery dynamics of tree physiological processes following heat and drought stress. To date, few experimental studies exist that include recovery responses in stress research. We synthesized recent research on tree recovery processes related to carbon and water exchange following heat and drought stress, and show that the intensity of stress can affect the pace of recovery with large variations among tree species and processes. Following stress release, leaf water potential recovers instantaneously upon rewatering as found in most studies. Transpiration (T), stomatal conductance (gs) and photosynthesis (A) often lag behind, with lowest recovery following severe stress. Interestingly, the patterns in heat and drought stress recovery apparently differ. While A recovers generally more quickly than gs following drought, which increases water-use-efficiency, both gs and A tend to remain reduced following heat events. The pace of recovery following heat events likely depends on water availability during stress and temperature maxima reached (photosynthetic impairment at temperatures > 40°C). Slow recovery during the initial post-stress days might result from hydraulic limitation and elevated levels of abscisic acid. The mechanisms resulting in a continued impairment of T and gs during a later stage of the recovery period (from weeks up to months) are still elusive. Feedback loops from the photosynthetic machinery, reduced mesophyll conductance or leaf morphological changes may play an important role. In summary, post-stress recovery can substantially affect tree carbon and water cycling. Thus, in order to estimate the impacts of extreme climate events on forest ecosystems in the long-term, we need a better understanding of recovery dynamics and their limitations in terms of stress timing, intensity and duration.

Extreme events in optics: Challenges of the MANUREVA project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dudley, J. M.; Finot, C.; Millot, G.; Garnier, J.; Genty, G.; Agafontsev, D.; Dias, F.

2010-07-01

In this contribution we describe and discuss a series of challenges and questions relating to understanding extreme wave phenomena in optics. Many aspects of these questions are being studied in the framework of the MANUREVA project: a multidisciplinary consortium aiming to carry out mathematical, numerical and experimental studies in this field. The central motivation of this work is the 2007 results from optical physics [D. Solli et al., Nature 450, 1054 (2007)] that showed how a fibre-optical system can generate large amplitude extreme wave events with similar statistical properties to the infamous hydrodynamic rogue waves on the surface of the ocean. We review our recent work in this area, and discuss how this observation may open the possibility for an optical system to be used to directly study both the dynamics and statistics of extreme-value processes, a potential advance comparable to the introduction of optical systems to study chaos in the 1970s.

Variability of hydrological extreme events in East Asia and their dynamical control: a comparison between observations and two high-resolution global climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Freychet, N.; Duchez, A.; Wu, C.-H.; Chen, C.-A.; Hsu, H.-H.; Hirschi, J.; Forryan, A.; Sinha, B.; New, A. L.; Graham, T.; Andrews, M. B.; Tu, C.-Y.; Lin, S.-J.

2017-02-01

This work investigates the variability of extreme weather events (drought spells, DS15, and daily heavy rainfall, PR99) over East Asia. It particularly focuses on the large scale atmospheric circulation associated with high levels of the occurrence of these extreme events. Two observational datasets (APHRODITE and PERSIANN) are compared with two high-resolution global climate models (HiRAM and HadGEM3-GC2) and an ensemble of other lower resolution climate models from CMIP5. We first evaluate the performance of the high resolution models. They both exhibit good skill in reproducing extreme events, especially when compared with CMIP5 results. Significant differences exist between the two observational datasets, highlighting the difficulty of having a clear estimate of extreme events. The link between the variability of the extremes and the large scale circulation is investigated, on monthly and interannual timescales, using composite and correlation analyses. Both extreme indices DS15 and PR99 are significantly linked to the low level wind intensity over East Asia, i.e. the monsoon circulation. It is also found that DS15 events are strongly linked to the surface temperature over the Siberian region and to the land-sea pressure contrast, while PR99 events are linked to the sea surface temperature anomalies over the West North Pacific. These results illustrate the importance of the monsoon circulation on extremes over East Asia. The dependencies on of the surface temperature over the continent and the sea surface temperature raise the question as to what extent they could affect the occurrence of extremes over tropical regions in future projections.

Preface: Impacts of extreme climate events and disturbances on carbon dynamics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Xiao, Jingfeng; Liu, Shuguang; Stoy, Paul C.

2016-01-01

The impacts of extreme climate events and disturbances (ECE&D) on the carbon cycle have received growing attention in recent years. This special issue showcases a collection of recent advances in understanding the impacts of ECE&D on carbon cycling. Notable advances include quantifying how harvesting activities impact forest structure, carbon pool dynamics, and recovery processes; observed drastic increases of the concentrations of dissolved organic carbon and dissolved methane in thermokarst lakes in western Siberia during a summer warming event; disentangling the roles of herbivores and fire on forest carbon dioxide flux; direct and indirect impacts of fire on the global carbon balance; and improved atmospheric inversion of regional carbon sources and sinks by incorporating disturbances. Combined, studies herein indicate several major research needs. First, disturbances and extreme events can interact with one another, and it is important to understand their overall impacts and also disentangle their effects on the carbon cycle. Second, current ecosystem models are not skillful enough to correctly simulate the underlying processes and impacts of ECE&D (e.g., tree mortality and carbon consequences). Third, benchmark data characterizing the timing, location, type, and magnitude of disturbances must be systematically created to improve our ability to quantify carbon dynamics over large areas. Finally, improving the representation of ECE&D in regional climate/earth system models and accounting for the resulting feedbacks to climate are essential for understanding the interactions between climate and ecosystem dynamics.

Sensitivity Analysis and Uncertainty Quantification for the LAMMPS Molecular Dynamics Simulation Code

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Picard, Richard Roy; Bhat, Kabekode Ghanasham

2017-07-18

We examine sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification for molecular dynamics simulation. Extreme (large or small) output values for the LAMMPS code often occur at the boundaries of input regions, and uncertainties in those boundary values are overlooked by common SA methods. Similarly, input values for which code outputs are consistent with calibration data can also occur near boundaries. Upon applying approaches in the literature for imprecise probabilities (IPs), much more realistic results are obtained than for the complacent application of standard SA and code calibration.

Classical Dynamics of Fullerenes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sławianowski, Jan J.; Kotowski, Romuald K.

2017-06-01

The classical mechanics of large molecules and fullerenes is studied. The approach is based on the model of collective motion of these objects. The mixed Lagrangian (material) and Eulerian (space) description of motion is used. In particular, the Green and Cauchy deformation tensors are geometrically defined. The important issue is the group-theoretical approach to describing the affine deformations of the body. The Hamiltonian description of motion based on the Poisson brackets methodology is used. The Lagrange and Hamilton approaches allow us to formulate the mechanics in the canonical form. The method of discretization in analytical continuum theory and in classical dynamics of large molecules and fullerenes enable us to formulate their dynamics in terms of the polynomial expansions of configurations. Another approach is based on the theory of analytical functions and on their approximations by finite-order polynomials. We concentrate on the extremely simplified model of affine deformations or on their higher-order polynomial perturbations.

Predictive Modeling of Risk Associated with Temperature Extremes over Continental US

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kravtsov, S.; Roebber, P.; Brazauskas, V.

2016-12-01

We build an extremely statistically accurate, essentially bias-free empirical emulator of atmospheric surface temperature and apply it for meteorological risk assessment over the domain of continental US. The resulting prediction scheme achieves an order-of-magnitude or larger gain of numerical efficiency compared with the schemes based on high-resolution dynamical atmospheric models, leading to unprecedented accuracy of the estimated risk distributions. The empirical model construction methodology is based on our earlier work, but is further modified to account for the influence of large-scale, global climate change on regional US weather and climate. The resulting estimates of the time-dependent, spatially extended probability of temperature extremes over the simulation period can be used as a risk management tool by insurance companies and regulatory governmental agencies.

Landsat and GRACE observations of arid wetland dynamics in a dryland river system under multi-decadal hydroclimatic extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xie, Zunyi; Huete, Alfredo; Ma, Xuanlong; Restrepo-Coupe, Natalia; Devadas, Rakhesh; Clarke, Kenneth; Lewis, Megan

2016-12-01

Arid wetlands are important for biodiversity conservation, but sensitive and vulnerable to climate variability and hydroclimatic events. Amplification of the water cycle, including the increasing frequency and severity of droughts and wet extremes, is expected to alter spatial and temporal hydrological patterns in arid wetlands globally, with potential threats to ecosystem services and their functioning. Despite these pressing challenges, the ecohydrological interactions and resilience of arid wetlands to highly variable water regimes over long time periods remain largely unknown. Recent broad-scale drought and floods over Australia provide unique opportunities to improve our understanding of arid wetland ecosystem responses to hydroclimatic extremes. Here we analysed the ecohydrological dynamics of the Coongie Lakes arid wetland in central Australia, one of the world's largest Ramsar-designated wetlands, using more than two decades (1988-2011) of vegetation and floodwater extent retrievals derived from Landsat satellite observations. To explore the impacts of large-scale hydrological fluctuations on the arid wetland, we further coupled Landsat measurements with Total Water Storage Anomaly (TWSA) data obtained from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites. Pronounced seasonal and inter-annual variabilities of flood and vegetation activities were observed over the wetland, with variations in vegetation growth extent highly correlated with flood extent (r = 0.64, p < 0.05) that ranged from nearly zero to 3456 km2. We reported the hydrological dynamics and associated ecosystem responses to be largely driven by the two phases (El Niño and La Niña) of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) ocean-atmosphere system. Changes in flood and vegetation extent were better explained by GRACE-TWSA (r = 0.8, lag = 0 month) than rainfall (r = 0.34, lag = 3 months) over the water source area, demonstrating that TWS is a valuable hydrological indicator for complex dryland river systems. The protracted Millennium Drought from 2001 to 2009 resulted in long-term absence of major flood events, which substantially suppressed wetland vegetation growth. However, the 2010-11 La Niña induced flooding events led to an exceptionally large resurgence of vegetation, with a mean vegetation growth extent anomaly exceeding the historical average (1988-2011) by more than 1.5 standard deviations, suggesting a significant resilience of arid wetland ecosystems to climate variability. This study showed the ecological functioning of arid wetlands is particularly sensitive to large-scale hydrological fluctuations and extreme drought conditions, and vulnerable to future altered water regimes due to climate change. The methods developed herein can be applied to arid wetlands located in other dryland river systems across the globe.

Butterflies, Black swans and Dragon kings: How to use the Dynamical Systems Theory to build a "zoology" of mid-latitude circulation atmospheric extremes?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Faranda, D.; Yiou, P.; Alvarez-Castro, M. C. M.

2015-12-01

A combination of dynamical systems and statistical techniques allows for a robust assessment of the dynamical properties of the mid-latitude atmospheric circulation. Extremes at different spatial and time scales are not only associated to exceptionally intense weather structures (e.g. extra-tropical cyclones) but also to rapid changes of circulation regimes (thunderstorms, supercells) or the extreme persistence of weather structure (heat waves, cold spells). We will show how the dynamical systems theory of recurrence combined to the extreme value theory can take into account the spatial and temporal dependence structure of the mid-latitude circulation structures and provide information on the statistics of extreme events.

Self-sustaining dynamical nuclear polarization oscillations in quantum dots.

PubMed

Rudner, M S; Levitov, L S

2013-02-22

Early experiments on spin-blockaded double quantum dots revealed robust, large-amplitude current oscillations in the presence of a static (dc) source-drain bias. Despite experimental evidence implicating dynamical nuclear polarization, the mechanism has remained a mystery. Here we introduce a minimal albeit realistic model of coupled electron and nuclear spin dynamics which supports self-sustained oscillations. Our mechanism relies on a nuclear spin analog of the tunneling magnetoresistance phenomenon (spin-dependent tunneling rates in the presence of an inhomogeneous Overhauser field) and nuclear spin diffusion, which governs dynamics of the spatial profile of nuclear polarization. The proposed framework naturally explains the differences in phenomenology between vertical and lateral quantum dot structures as well as the extremely long oscillation periods.

Parallel algorithm for multiscale atomistic/continuum simulations using LAMMPS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pavia, F.; Curtin, W. A.

2015-07-01

Deformation and fracture processes in engineering materials often require simultaneous descriptions over a range of length and time scales, with each scale using a different computational technique. Here we present a high-performance parallel 3D computing framework for executing large multiscale studies that couple an atomic domain, modeled using molecular dynamics and a continuum domain, modeled using explicit finite elements. We use the robust Coupled Atomistic/Discrete-Dislocation (CADD) displacement-coupling method, but without the transfer of dislocations between atoms and continuum. The main purpose of the work is to provide a multiscale implementation within an existing large-scale parallel molecular dynamics code (LAMMPS) that enables use of all the tools associated with this popular open-source code, while extending CADD-type coupling to 3D. Validation of the implementation includes the demonstration of (i) stability in finite-temperature dynamics using Langevin dynamics, (ii) elimination of wave reflections due to large dynamic events occurring in the MD region and (iii) the absence of spurious forces acting on dislocations due to the MD/FE coupling, for dislocations further than 10 Å from the coupling boundary. A first non-trivial example application of dislocation glide and bowing around obstacles is shown, for dislocation lengths of ∼50 nm using fewer than 1 000 000 atoms but reproducing results of extremely large atomistic simulations at much lower computational cost.

A hydro-meteorological model chain to assess the influence of natural variability and impacts of climate change on extreme events and propose optimal water management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

von Trentini, F.; Willkofer, F.; Wood, R. R.; Schmid, F. J.; Ludwig, R.

2017-12-01

The ClimEx project (Climate change and hydrological extreme events - risks and perspectives for water management in Bavaria and Québec) focuses on the effects of climate change on hydro-meteorological extreme events and their implications for water management in Bavaria and Québec. Therefore, a hydro-meteorological model chain is applied. It employs high performance computing capacity of the Leibniz Supercomputing Centre facility SuperMUC to dynamically downscale 50 members of the Global Circulation Model CanESM2 over European and Eastern North American domains using the Canadian Regional Climate Model (RCM) CRCM5. Over Europe, the unique single model ensemble is conjointly analyzed with the latest information provided through the CORDEX-initiative, to better assess the influence of natural climate variability and climatic change in the dynamics of extreme events. Furthermore, these 50 members of a single RCM will enhance extreme value statistics (extreme return periods) by exploiting the available 1500 model years for the reference period from 1981 to 2010. Hence, the RCM output is applied to drive the process based, fully distributed, and deterministic hydrological model WaSiM in high temporal (3h) and spatial (500m) resolution. WaSiM and the large ensemble are further used to derive a variety of hydro-meteorological patterns leading to severe flood events. A tool for virtual perfect prediction shall provide a combination of optimal lead time and management strategy to mitigate certain flood events following these patterns.

On the importance of cloud—cloud interaction to invigorate convective extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berg, Peter; Moseley, Christopher; Hohenegger, Cathy; Haerter, Jan

2017-04-01

Observational studies have shown that convective extremes are invigorated with increasing temperatures beyond thermodynamic constraints through the Clausius-Clapeyron relationship (e.g. Lenderink and van Meijgaard, Nature Geosci., 2008; Berg et al., Nature Geosci., 2013). This implies that there are changes in the dynamics of the convective showers that are dependent on the environmental conditions. Observations of convective cells lack sufficient resolution to investigate the dynamics in detail. We have therefore applied a large eddy simulator (LES) at a 200 m horizontal resolution to study the dynamical interaction between convective cells in a set of idealized simulations of a full diurnal cycle with a vertical profile of a typical day with convective showers (Moseley et al., Nature Geosci., 2016). The simulations show that the convective cells are subjected to a gradual self-organization over the day, forming larger cell clusters and more intense precipitation. Further, by tracking rain cells, we find that cells that collide with other cells during their lifetime have a different response to changes in the environmental conditions, such as an increase in temperature, than cells that do not interact. Whereas the non-interacting cells remain almost unaffected by the boundary conditions, the colliding cells show a strong invigoration. Interestingly, granting more time for the self-organization to occur has a similar effect as increasing the temperature. We therefore speculate that self-organization is a key element to explain the strong response of convective extremes to increasing temperature. Our results suggest that proper modeling and predicting of convective extremes requires the description of the interaction between convective clouds.

Large Scale Processes and Extreme Floods in Brazil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ribeiro Lima, C. H.; AghaKouchak, A.; Lall, U.

2016-12-01

Persistent large scale anomalies in the atmospheric circulation and ocean state have been associated with heavy rainfall and extreme floods in water basins of different sizes across the world. Such studies have emerged in the last years as a new tool to improve the traditional, stationary based approach in flood frequency analysis and flood prediction. Here we seek to advance previous studies by evaluating the dominance of large scale processes (e.g. atmospheric rivers/moisture transport) over local processes (e.g. local convection) in producing floods. We consider flood-prone regions in Brazil as case studies and the role of large scale climate processes in generating extreme floods in such regions is explored by means of observed streamflow, reanalysis data and machine learning methods. The dynamics of the large scale atmospheric circulation in the days prior to the flood events are evaluated based on the vertically integrated moisture flux and its divergence field, which are interpreted in a low-dimensional space as obtained by machine learning techniques, particularly supervised kernel principal component analysis. In such reduced dimensional space, clusters are obtained in order to better understand the role of regional moisture recycling or teleconnected moisture in producing floods of a given magnitude. The convective available potential energy (CAPE) is also used as a measure of local convection activities. We investigate for individual sites the exceedance probability in which large scale atmospheric fluxes dominate the flood process. Finally, we analyze regional patterns of floods and how the scaling law of floods with drainage area responds to changes in the climate forcing mechanisms (e.g. local vs large scale).

Tempest: Tools for Addressing the Needs of Next-Generation Climate Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ullrich, P. A.; Guerra, J. E.; Pinheiro, M. C.; Fong, J.

2015-12-01

Tempest is a comprehensive simulation-to-science infrastructure that tackles the needs of next-generation, high-resolution, data intensive climate modeling activities. This project incorporates three key components: TempestDynamics, a global modeling framework for experimental numerical methods and high-performance computing; TempestRemap, a toolset for arbitrary-order conservative and consistent remapping between unstructured grids; and TempestExtremes, a suite of detection and characterization tools for identifying weather extremes in large climate datasets. In this presentation, the latest advances with the implementation of this framework will be discussed, and a number of projects now utilizing these tools will be featured.

Single stock dynamics on high-frequency data: from a compressed coding perspective.

PubMed

Fushing, Hsieh; Chen, Shu-Chun; Hwang, Chii-Ruey

2014-01-01

High-frequency return, trading volume and transaction number are digitally coded via a nonparametric computing algorithm, called hierarchical factor segmentation (HFS), and then are coupled together to reveal a single stock dynamics without global state-space structural assumptions. The base-8 digital coding sequence, which is capable of revealing contrasting aggregation against sparsity of extreme events, is further compressed into a shortened sequence of state transitions. This compressed digital code sequence vividly demonstrates that the aggregation of large absolute returns is the primary driving force for stimulating both the aggregations of large trading volumes and transaction numbers. The state of system-wise synchrony is manifested with very frequent recurrence in the stock dynamics. And this data-driven dynamic mechanism is seen to correspondingly vary as the global market transiting in and out of contraction-expansion cycles. These results not only elaborate the stock dynamics of interest to a fuller extent, but also contradict some classical theories in finance. Overall this version of stock dynamics is potentially more coherent and realistic, especially when the current financial market is increasingly powered by high-frequency trading via computer algorithms, rather than by individual investors.

Single Stock Dynamics on High-Frequency Data: From a Compressed Coding Perspective

PubMed Central

Fushing, Hsieh; Chen, Shu-Chun; Hwang, Chii-Ruey

2014-01-01

High-frequency return, trading volume and transaction number are digitally coded via a nonparametric computing algorithm, called hierarchical factor segmentation (HFS), and then are coupled together to reveal a single stock dynamics without global state-space structural assumptions. The base-8 digital coding sequence, which is capable of revealing contrasting aggregation against sparsity of extreme events, is further compressed into a shortened sequence of state transitions. This compressed digital code sequence vividly demonstrates that the aggregation of large absolute returns is the primary driving force for stimulating both the aggregations of large trading volumes and transaction numbers. The state of system-wise synchrony is manifested with very frequent recurrence in the stock dynamics. And this data-driven dynamic mechanism is seen to correspondingly vary as the global market transiting in and out of contraction-expansion cycles. These results not only elaborate the stock dynamics of interest to a fuller extent, but also contradict some classical theories in finance. Overall this version of stock dynamics is potentially more coherent and realistic, especially when the current financial market is increasingly powered by high-frequency trading via computer algorithms, rather than by individual investors. PMID:24586235

Pynamic: the Python Dynamic Benchmark

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lee, G L; Ahn, D H; de Supinksi, B R

2007-07-10

Python is widely used in scientific computing to facilitate application development and to support features such as computational steering. Making full use of some of Python's popular features, which improve programmer productivity, leads to applications that access extremely high numbers of dynamically linked libraries (DLLs). As a result, some important Python-based applications severely stress a system's dynamic linking and loading capabilities and also cause significant difficulties for most development environment tools, such as debuggers. Furthermore, using the Python paradigm for large scale MPI-based applications can create significant file IO and further stress tools and operating systems. In this paper, wemore » present Pynamic, the first benchmark program to support configurable emulation of a wide-range of the DLL usage of Python-based applications for large scale systems. Pynamic has already accurately reproduced system software and tool issues encountered by important large Python-based scientific applications on our supercomputers. Pynamic provided insight for our system software and tool vendors, and our application developers, into the impact of several design decisions. As we describe the Pynamic benchmark, we will highlight some of the issues discovered in our large scale system software and tools using Pynamic.« less

Coupled large-eddy simulation and morphodynamics of a large-scale river under extreme flood conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khosronejad, Ali; Sotiropoulos, Fotis; Stony Brook University Team

2016-11-01

We present a coupled flow and morphodynamic simulations of extreme flooding in 3 km long and 300 m wide reach of the Mississippi River in Minnesota, which includes three islands and hydraulic structures. We employ the large-eddy simulation (LES) and bed-morphodynamic modules of the VFS-Geophysics model to investigate the flow and bed evolution of the river during a 500 year flood. The coupling of the two modules is carried out via a fluid-structure interaction approach using a nested domain approach to enhance the resolution of bridge scour predictions. The geometrical data of the river, islands and structures are obtained from LiDAR, sub-aqueous sonar and in-situ surveying to construct a digital map of the river bathymetry. Our simulation results for the bed evolution of the river reveal complex sediment dynamics near the hydraulic structures. The numerically captured scour depth near some of the structures reach a maximum of about 10 m. The data-driven simulation strategy we present in this work exemplifies a practical simulation-based-engineering-approach to investigate the resilience of infrastructures to extreme flood events in intricate field-scale riverine systems. This work was funded by a Grant from Minnesota Dept. of Transportation.

Sine Qua Non: Indispensable Resources for Ed Tech Professionals. Part 1: Educational Technology

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Conley, Kate

2004-01-01

Because the field of educational technology is so broad and dynamic, it is extremely difficult to find time to keep up with the best practices, current research, and innovative ideas. In an effort to help readers keep up their knowledge of the field and to determine some of the most interesting and useful resources to date, a large body of…

Forest bat population dynamics over 14 years at a climate refuge: Effects of timber harvesting and weather extremes

PubMed Central

Chidel, Mark; Law, Peter R.

2018-01-01

Long-term data are needed to explore the interaction of weather extremes with habitat alteration; in particular, can ‘refugia’ buffer population dynamics against climate change and are they robust to disturbances such as timber harvesting. Because forest bats are good indicators of ecosystem health, we used 14 years (1999–2012) of mark-recapture data from a suite of small tree-hollow roosting bats to estimate survival, abundance and body condition in harvested and unharvested forest and over extreme El Niño and La Niña weather events in southeastern Australia. Trapping was replicated within an experimental forest, located in a climate refuge, with different timber harvesting treatments. We trapped foraging bats and banded 3043 with a 32% retrap rate. Mark-recapture analyses allowed for dependence of survival on time, species, sex, logging treatment and for transients. A large portion of the population remained resident, with a maximum time to recapture of nine years. The effect of logging history (unlogged vs 16–30 years post-logging regrowth) on apparent survival was minor and species specific, with no detectable effect for two species, a positive effect for one and negative for the other. There was no effect of logging history on abundance or body condition for any of these species. Apparent survival of residents was not strongly influenced by weather variation (except for the smallest species), unlike previous studies outside of refugia. Despite annual variation in abundance and body condition across the 14 years of the study, no relationship with extreme weather was evident. The location of our study area in a climate refuge potentially buffered bat population dynamics from extreme weather. These results support the value of climate refugia in mitigating climate change impacts, though the lack of an external control highlights the need for further studies on the functioning of climate refugia. Relatively stable population dynamics were not compromised by timber harvesting, suggesting ecologically sustainable harvesting may be compatible with climate refugia. PMID:29444115

The Influence of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (mjo) on Extreme Rainfall Over the Central and Southern Peruvian Andes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heidinger, H.; Jones, C.; Carvalho, L. V.

2015-12-01

Extreme rainfall is important for the Andean region because of the large contribution of these events to the seasonal totals and consequent impacts on water resources for agriculture, water consumption, industry and hydropower generation, as well as the occurrence of floods and landslides. Over Central and Southern Peruvian Andes (CSPA), rainfall exceeding the 90th percentile contributed between 44 to 100% to the total Nov-Mar 1979-2010 rainfall. Additionally, precipitation from a large majority of stations in the CSPA exhibits statistically significant spectral peaks on intraseasonal time-scales (20 to 70 days). The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is the most important intraseasonal mode of atmospheric circulation and moist convection in the tropics and the occurrence of extreme weather events worldwide. Mechanisms explaining the relationships between the MJO and precipitation in the Peruvian Andes have not been properly described yet. The present study examines the relationships between the activity and phases of the MJO and the occurrence of extreme rainfall over the CSPA. We found that the frequency of extreme rainfall events increase in the CSPA when the MJO is active. MJO phases 5, 6 and 7 contribute to the overall occurrence of extreme rainfall events over the CSPA. However, how the MJO phases modulate extreme rainfall depends on the location of the stations. For instance, extreme precipitation (above the 90th percentile) in stations in the Amazon basin are slightly more sensitive to phases 2, 3 and 4; the frequency of extremes in stations in the Pacific basin increases in phases 5, 6 and 7 whereas phase 2, 3 and 7 modulates extreme precipitation in stations in the Titicaca basin. Greater variability among stations is observed when using the 95th and 99th percentiles to identify extremes. Among the main mechanisms that explain the increase in extreme rainfall events in the Peruvian Andes is the intensification of the easterly moisture flux anomalies, which are favored during certain phases of the MJO. Here dynamical mechanisms linking the MJO to the occurrence of extreme rainfall in stations in the Peruvian Andes are investigated using composites of integrated moisture flux and geopotential height anomalies.

Temporal Clustering of Regional-Scale Extreme Precipitation Events in Southern Switzerland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barton, Yannick; Giannakaki, Paraskevi; Von Waldow, Harald; Chevalier, Clément; Pfhal, Stephan; Martius, Olivia

2017-04-01

Temporal clustering of extreme precipitation events on subseasonal time scales is a form of compound extremes and is of crucial importance for the formation of large-scale flood events. Here, the temporal clustering of regional-scale extreme precipitation events in southern Switzerland is studied. These precipitation events are relevant for the flooding of lakes in southern Switzerland and northern Italy. This research determines whether temporal clustering is present and then identifies the dynamics that are responsible for the clustering. An observation-based gridded precipitation dataset of Swiss daily rainfall sums and ECMWF reanalysis datasets are used. To analyze the clustering in the precipitation time series a modified version of Ripley's K function is used. It determines the average number of extreme events in a time period, to characterize temporal clustering on subseasonal time scales and to determine the statistical significance of the clustering. Significant clustering of regional-scale precipitation extremes is found on subseasonal time scales during the fall season. Four high-impact clustering episodes are then selected and the dynamics responsible for the clustering are examined. During the four clustering episodes, all heavy precipitation events were associated with an upperlevel breaking Rossby wave over western Europe and in most cases strong diabatic processes upstream over the Atlantic played a role in the amplification of these breaking waves. Atmospheric blocking downstream over eastern Europe supported this wave breaking during two of the clustering episodes. During one of the clustering periods, several extratropical transitions of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic contributed to the formation of high-amplitude ridges over the Atlantic basin and downstream wave breaking. During another event, blocking over Alaska assisted the phase locking of the Rossby waves downstream over the Atlantic.

Extreme climatic events change the dynamics and invasibility of semi-arid annual plant communities.

PubMed

Jiménez, Milagros A; Jaksic, Fabian M; Armesto, Juan J; Gaxiola, Aurora; Meserve, Peter L; Kelt, Douglas A; Gutiérrez, Julio R

2011-12-01

Extreme climatic events represent disturbances that change the availability of resources. We studied their effects on annual plant assemblages in a semi-arid ecosystem in north-central Chile. We analysed 130 years of precipitation data using generalised extreme-value distribution to determine extreme events, and multivariate techniques to analyse 20 years of plant cover data of 34 native and 11 exotic species. Extreme drought resets the dynamics of the system and renders it susceptible to invasion. On the other hand, by favouring native annuals, moderately wet events change species composition and allow the community to be resilient to extreme drought. The probability of extreme drought has doubled over the last 50 years. Therefore, investigations on the interaction of climate change and biological invasions are relevant to determine the potential for future effects on the dynamics of semi-arid annual plant communities. 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS.

OPTIMIZING THROUGH CO-EVOLUTIONARY AVALANCHES

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

S. BOETTCHER; A. PERCUS

2000-08-01

We explore a new general-purpose heuristic for finding high-quality solutions to hard optimization problems. The method, called extremal optimization, is inspired by ''self-organized critically,'' a concept introduced to describe emergent complexity in many physical systems. In contrast to Genetic Algorithms which operate on an entire ''gene-pool'' of possible solutions, extremal optimization successively replaces extremely undesirable elements of a sub-optimal solution with new, random ones. Large fluctuations, called ''avalanches,'' ensue that efficiently explore many local optima. Drawing upon models used to simulate far-from-equilibrium dynamics, extremal optimization complements approximation methods inspired by equilibrium statistical physics, such as simulated annealing. With only onemore » adjustable parameter, its performance has proved competitive with more elaborate methods, especially near phase transitions. Those phase transitions are found in the parameter space of most optimization problems, and have recently been conjectured to be the origin of some of the hardest instances in computational complexity. We will demonstrate how extremal optimization can be implemented for a variety of combinatorial optimization problems. We believe that extremal optimization will be a useful tool in the investigation of phase transitions in combinatorial optimization problems, hence valuable in elucidating the origin of computational complexity.« less

Studies of climate dynamics with innovative global-model simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shi, Xiaoming

Climate simulations with different degrees of idealization are essential for the development of our understanding of the climate system. Studies in this dissertation employ carefully designed global-model simulations for the goal of gaining theoretical and conceptual insights into some problems of climate dynamics. Firstly, global warming-induced changes in extreme precipitation are investigated using a global climate model with idealized geography. The precipitation changes over an idealized north-south mid-latitude mountain barrier at the western margin of an otherwise flat continent are studied. The intensity of the 40 most intense events on the western slopes increases by about ~4°C of surface warming. In contrast, the intensity of the top 40 events on the eastern mountain slopes increases at about ~6°C. This higher sensitivity is due to enhanced ascent during the eastern-slope events, which can be explained in terms of linear mountain-wave theory relating to global warming-induced changes in the upper-tropospheric static stability and the tropopause level. Dominated by different dynamical factors, changes in the intensity of extreme precipitation events over plains and oceans might differ from changes over mountains. So the response of extreme precipitation over mountains and flat areas are further compared using larger data sets of simulated extreme events over the two types of surfaces. It is found that the sensitivity of extreme precipitation to increases in global mean surface temperature is 3% per °C lower over mountains than over the oceans or the plains. The difference in sensitivity among these regions is not due to thermodynamic effects, but rather to differences between the gravity-wave dynamics governing vertical velocities over the mountains and the cyclone dynamics governing vertical motions over the oceans and plains. The strengthening of latent heating in the storms over oceans and plains leads to stronger ascent in the warming climate. Motivated by the fact that natural variability of the atmosphere could obscure the signal of anthropogenic warming on time scales of years to decades, the large scale variability of the atmosphere is also studied. Analysis using simulations in the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble project reveals that the Northern Annular Mode (NAM) does not have a stable spatial pattern when 50-year long segments of data are used to calculate it. Some segments of data result in NAM-like variability with a very strong North Pacific center of action, while in some others it exhibits a more symmetric structure, with North Pacific and Euro-Atlantic centers of comparable strength. Perhaps somewhat puzzling, the NAM's North Pacific center of action is found to have a strengthening trend under anthropogenic warming. Lastly, the large-scale character of an atmosphere in rotating Radiative-Convective Equilibrium (RCE) is studied, using a global atmospheric model with prescribed globally uniform sea surface temperature and no insolation. In such an equilibrium state, numerous tropical cyclone-like vortices develop in the extratropics, which move slowly poleward and westward. The typical spacing of simulated tropical cyclone-like vortices is comparable to the Rossby radius of deformation, while the production of available potential energy is at a scale slightly smaller than that of the vortices. It is hypothesized that the growth of tropical cyclone-like vortices is driven by the self-aggregation of convection, while baroclinic instability destabilizes any vortices that grow significantly larger than the deformation radius. A weak Hadley circulation dominates in the deep tropics, and an eastward-propagating wavenumber one MJO-like mode with a period of 30 to 40 days develops along the equator.

Optimal dynamic remapping of parallel computations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nicol, David M.; Reynolds, Paul F., Jr.

1987-01-01

A large class of computations are characterized by a sequence of phases, with phase changes occurring unpredictably. The decision problem was considered regarding the remapping of workload to processors in a parallel computation when the utility of remapping and the future behavior of the workload is uncertain, and phases exhibit stable execution requirements during a given phase, but requirements may change radically between phases. For these problems a workload assignment generated for one phase may hinder performance during the next phase. This problem is treated formally for a probabilistic model of computation with at most two phases. The fundamental problem of balancing the expected remapping performance gain against the delay cost was addressed. Stochastic dynamic programming is used to show that the remapping decision policy minimizing the expected running time of the computation has an extremely simple structure. Because the gain may not be predictable, the performance of a heuristic policy that does not require estimnation of the gain is examined. The heuristic method's feasibility is demonstrated by its use on an adaptive fluid dynamics code on a multiprocessor. The results suggest that except in extreme cases, the remapping decision problem is essentially that of dynamically determining whether gain can be achieved by remapping after a phase change. The results also suggest that this heuristic is applicable to computations with more than two phases.

Investigation of the 2006 Drought and 2007 Flood Extremes at the Southern Great Plains Through an Integrative Analysis of Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dong, Xiquan; Xi, Baike; Kennedy, Aaron; Feng, Zhe; Entin, Jared K.; Houser, Paul R.; Schiffer, Robert A.; LEucyer, Tristan; Olson, William S.; Hsu, Kuo-lin;

Precipitation-snowmelt timing and snowmelt augmentation of large peak flow events, western Cascades, Oregon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jennings, Keith; Jones, Julia A.

2015-09-01

This study tested multiple hydrologic mechanisms to explain snowpack dynamics in extreme rain-on-snow floods, which occur widely in the temperate and polar regions. We examined 26, 10 day large storm events over the period 1992-2012 in the H.J. Andrews Experimental Forest in western Oregon, using statistical analyses (regression, ANOVA, and wavelet coherence) of hourly snowmelt lysimeter, air and dewpoint temperature, wind speed, precipitation, and discharge data. All events involved snowpack outflow, but only seven events had continuous net snowpack outflow, including three of the five top-ranked peak discharge events. Peak discharge was not related to precipitation rate, but it was related to the 10 day sum of precipitation and net snowpack outflow, indicating an increased flood response to continuously melting snowpacks. The two largest peak discharge events in the study had significant wavelet coherence at multiple time scales over several days; a distribution of phase differences between precipitation and net snowpack outflow at the 12-32 h time scale with a sharp peak at π/2 radians; and strongly correlated snowpack outflow among lysimeters representing 42% of basin area. The recipe for an extreme rain-on-snow event includes persistent, slow melt within the snowpack, which appears to produce a near-saturated zone within the snowpack throughout the landscape, such that the snowpack may transmit pressure waves of precipitation directly to streams, and this process is synchronized across the landscape. Further work is needed to understand the internal dynamics of a melting snowpack throughout a snow-covered landscape and its contribution to extreme rain-on-snow floods.

Extreme weather events in southern Germany - Climatological risk and development of a large-scale identification procedure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matthies, A.; Leckebusch, G. C.; Rohlfing, G.; Ulbrich, U.

2009-04-01

Extreme weather events such as thunderstorms, hail and heavy rain or snowfall can pose a threat to human life and to considerable tangible assets. Yet there is a lack of knowledge about present day climatological risk and its economic effects, and its changes due to rising greenhouse gas concentrations. Therefore, parts of economy particularly sensitve to extreme weather events such as insurance companies and airports require regional risk-analyses, early warning and prediction systems to cope with such events. Such an attempt is made for southern Germany, in close cooperation with stakeholders. Comparing ERA40 and station data with impact records of Munich Re and Munich Airport, the 90th percentile was found to be a suitable threshold for extreme impact relevant precipitation events. Different methods for the classification of causing synoptic situations have been tested on ERA40 reanalyses. An objective scheme for the classification of Lamb's circulation weather types (CWT's) has proved to be most suitable for correct classification of the large-scale flow conditions. Certain CWT's have been turned out to be prone to heavy precipitation or on the other side to have a very low risk of such events. Other large-scale parameters are tested in connection with CWT's to find out a combination that has the highest skill to identify extreme precipitation events in climate model data (ECHAM5 and CLM). For example vorticity advection in 700 hPa shows good results, but assumes knowledge of regional orographic particularities. Therefore ongoing work is focused on additional testing of parameters that indicate deviations of a basic state of the atmosphere like the Eady Growth Rate or the newly developed Dynamic State Index. Evaluation results will be used to estimate the skill of the regional climate model CLM concerning the simulation of frequency and intensity of the extreme weather events. Data of the A1B scenario (2000-2050) will be examined for a possible climate change signal.

Effect of segmental, localized lower limb cooling on dynamic balance.

PubMed

Montgomery, Roger E; Hartley, Geoffrey L; Tyler, Christopher J; Cheung, Stephen S

2015-01-01

This study aimed to determine the effect of cooling progressively greater portions of the lower extremities on dynamic balance and neuromuscular activation. Ten healthy males (22.8 ± 3.4 yr, 76.5 ± 9.1 kg) performed one room air temperature control (22.4°C ± 0.8°C) and three trials of cold water immersion at 12°C (lateral malleolus, ankle; lateral femoral epicondyle, knee; anterior superior iliac spine, hip) for 10 min before performing a unipedal balance test (Star Excursion Balance Test (SEBT)) with their dominant limb. Muscle activation of the vastus lateralis, biceps femoris, tibialis anterior, and lateral gastrocnemius was measured with surface EMG during the SEBT. Core temperature remained euthermic throughout all trials. Gastrocnemius temperature decreased from control (30.4°C ± 0.5°C) with knee (23.7°C ± 1.7°C) and hip immersion (22.4°C ± 1.0°C), whereas vastus lateralis temperature decreased from control (33.7°C ± 1.7°C) with hip immersion (27.3°C ± 2.0°C) (P < 0.01 for all comparisons). Cold water immersion influenced mean anterior and posterior reach distance on the SEBT in a dose-dependent fashion. Compared with those in control, mean anterior and posterior SEBT reach distances were not decreased with ankle (-1.38% and -0.74%, respectively) and knee immersion (-2.48% and -2.74%), whereas hip immersion significantly reduced SEBT by 4.73% and 4.05% (P < 0.05, d = 0.52-0.58). Muscle activation was largely unaffected as the lower extremities were cooled, with only the lateral gastrocnemius during the anterior SEBT approaching a decrease (P = 0.059). Cooling larger portions of the lower extremities progressively affect dynamic balance, and thermal protection strategies should focus on maintaining temperature in the large muscle mass of the thigh.

Dynamic Smagorinsky model on anisotropic grids

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Scotti, A.; Meneveau, C.; Fatica, M.

1996-01-01

Large Eddy Simulation (LES) of complex-geometry flows often involves highly anisotropic meshes. To examine the performance of the dynamic Smagorinsky model in a controlled fashion on such grids, simulations of forced isotropic turbulence are performed using highly anisotropic discretizations. The resulting model coefficients are compared with a theoretical prediction (Scotti et al., 1993). Two extreme cases are considered: pancake-like grids, for which two directions are poorly resolved compared to the third, and pencil-like grids, where one direction is poorly resolved when compared to the other two. For pancake-like grids the dynamic model yields the results expected from the theory (increasing coefficient with increasing aspect ratio), whereas for pencil-like grids the dynamic model does not agree with the theoretical prediction (with detrimental effects only on smallest resolved scales). A possible explanation of the departure is attempted, and it is shown that the problem may be circumvented by using an isotropic test-filter at larger scales. Overall, all models considered give good large-scale results, confirming the general robustness of the dynamic and eddy-viscosity models. But in all cases, the predictions were poor for scales smaller than that of the worst resolved direction.

Young students, satellites aid understanding of climate-biosphere link

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

White, Michael A.; Schwartz, Mark D.; Running, Steven W.

Data collected by young students from kindergarten through high school are being combined with satellite data to develop a more consistent understanding of the intimate connection between climate dynamics and the terrestrial biosphere. Comparison of the two sets of data involving the onset of budburst among trees and other vegetation has been extremely encouraging.Surface-atmosphere interactions involving exchanges of carbon, water, and energy are strongly affected by interannual variability in the timing and length of the vegetation growing season, and satellite remote sensing has the unique ability to consistently monitor global spatiotemporal variability in growing season dynamics. But without a clear picture of how satellite information (Figure 1) relates to ground conditions, the application of satellite growing season estimates for monitoring of climate-vegetation interactions, calculation of energy budgets, and large-scale ecological modeling is extremely limited.The integrated phenological analysis of field data, satellite observations, and climate advocated by Schwartz [1998], for example, has been primarily limited by the lack of geographically extensive and consistently measured phenology databases.

AMTD - Advanced Mirror Technology Development in Mechanical Stability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Knight, J. Brent

2015-01-01

Analytical tools and processes are being developed at NASA Marshal Space Flight Center in support of the Advanced Mirror Technology Development (AMTD) project. One facet of optical performance is mechanical stability with respect to structural dynamics. Pertinent parameters are: (1) the spacecraft structural design, (2) the mechanical disturbances on-board the spacecraft (sources of vibratory/transient motion such as reaction wheels), (3) the vibration isolation systems (invariably required to meet future science needs), and (4) the dynamic characteristics of the optical system itself. With stability requirements of future large aperture space telescopes being in the lower Pico meter regime, it is paramount that all sources of mechanical excitation be considered in both feasibility studies and detailed analyses. The primary objective of this paper is to lay out a path to perform feasibility studies of future large aperture space telescope projects which require extreme stability. To get to that end, a high level overview of a structural dynamic analysis process to assess an integrated spacecraft and optical system is included.

The role of weak selection and high mutation rates in nearly neutral evolution.

PubMed

Lawson, Daniel John; Jensen, Henrik Jeldtoft

2009-04-21

Neutral dynamics occur in evolution if all types are 'effectively equal' in their reproductive success, where the definition of 'effectively equal' depends on the population size and the details of mutations. Empirically observed neutral genetic evolution in extremely large clonal populations can only be explained under current models if selection is completely absent. Such models typically consider the case where population dynamics occurs on a different timescale to evolution. However, this assumption is invalid when mutations are not rare in a whole population. We show that this has important consequences for the occurrence of neutral evolution in clonal populations. In highly connected type spaces, neutral dynamics can occur for all population sizes despite significant selective differences, via the forming of effectively neutral networks connecting rare neutral types. Biological implications include an explanation for the high diversity of rare types that survive in large clonal populations, and a theoretical justification for the use of neutral null models.

Software Surface Modeling and Grid Generation Steering Committee

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, Robert E. (Editor)

1992-01-01

It is a NASA objective to promote improvements in the capability and efficiency of computational fluid dynamics. Grid generation, the creation of a discrete representation of the solution domain, is an essential part of computational fluid dynamics. However, grid generation about complex boundaries requires sophisticated surface-model descriptions of the boundaries. The surface modeling and the associated computation of surface grids consume an extremely large percentage of the total time required for volume grid generation. Efficient and user friendly software systems for surface modeling and grid generation are critical for computational fluid dynamics to reach its potential. The papers presented here represent the state-of-the-art in software systems for surface modeling and grid generation. Several papers describe improved techniques for grid generation.

Active Dendrites Enhance Neuronal Dynamic Range

PubMed Central

Gollo, Leonardo L.; Kinouchi, Osame; Copelli, Mauro

2009-01-01

Since the first experimental evidences of active conductances in dendrites, most neurons have been shown to exhibit dendritic excitability through the expression of a variety of voltage-gated ion channels. However, despite experimental and theoretical efforts undertaken in the past decades, the role of this excitability for some kind of dendritic computation has remained elusive. Here we show that, owing to very general properties of excitable media, the average output of a model of an active dendritic tree is a highly non-linear function of its afferent rate, attaining extremely large dynamic ranges (above 50 dB). Moreover, the model yields double-sigmoid response functions as experimentally observed in retinal ganglion cells. We claim that enhancement of dynamic range is the primary functional role of active dendritic conductances. We predict that neurons with larger dendritic trees should have larger dynamic range and that blocking of active conductances should lead to a decrease in dynamic range. PMID:19521531

Forest-fire model as a supercritical dynamic model in financial systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Deokjae; Kim, Jae-Young; Lee, Jeho; Kahng, B.

2015-02-01

Recently large-scale cascading failures in complex systems have garnered substantial attention. Such extreme events have been treated as an integral part of self-organized criticality (SOC). Recent empirical work has suggested that some extreme events systematically deviate from the SOC paradigm, requiring a different theoretical framework. We shed additional theoretical light on this possibility by studying financial crisis. We build our model of financial crisis on the well-known forest fire model in scale-free networks. Our analysis shows a nontrivial scaling feature indicating supercritical behavior, which is independent of system size. Extreme events in the supercritical state result from bursting of a fat bubble, seeds of which are sown by a protracted period of a benign financial environment with few shocks. Our findings suggest that policymakers can control the magnitude of financial meltdowns by keeping the economy operating within reasonable duration of a benign environment.

The extreme mobility of debris avalanches: A new model of transport mechanism

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perinotto, Hélène; Schneider, Jean-Luc; Bachèlery, Patrick; Le Bourdonnec, François-Xavier; Famin, Vincent; Michon, Laurent

2015-12-01

Large rockslide-debris avalanches, resulting from flank collapses that shape volcanoes and mountains on Earth and other object of the solar system, are rapid and dangerous gravity-driven granular flows that travel abnormal distances. During the last 50 years, numerous physical models have been put forward to explain their extreme mobility. The principal models are based on fluidization, lubrication, or dynamic disintegration. However, these processes remain poorly constrained. To identify precisely the transport mechanisms during debris avalanches, we examined morphometric (fractal dimension and circularity), grain size, and exoscopic characteristics of the various types of particles (clasts and matrix) from volcanic debris avalanche deposits of La Réunion Island (Indian Ocean). From these data we demonstrate for the first time that syn-transport dynamic disintegration continuously operates with the increasing runout distance from the source down to a grinding limit of 500 µm. Below this limit, the particle size reduction exclusively results from their attrition by frictional interactions. Consequently, the exceptional mobility of debris avalanches may be explained by the combined effect of elastic energy release during the dynamic disintegration of the larger clasts and frictional reduction within the matrix due to interactions between the finer particles.

Significantly Increased Extreme Precipitation Expected in Europe and North America from Extratropical Storms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hawcroft, M.; Hodges, K.; Walsh, E.; Zappa, G.

2017-12-01

For the Northern Hemisphere extratropics, changes in circulation are key to determining the impacts of climate warming. The mechanisms governing these circulation changes are complex, leading to the well documented uncertainty in projections of the future location of the mid-latitude storm tracks simulated by climate models. These storms are the primary source of precipitation for North America and Europe and generate many of the large-scale precipitation extremes associated with flooding and severe economic loss. Here, we show that in spite of the uncertainty in circulation changes, by analysing the behaviour of the storms themselves, we find entirely consistent and robust projections across an ensemble of climate models. In particular, we find that projections of change in the most intensely precipitating storms (above the present day 99th percentile) in the Northern Hemisphere are substantial and consistent across models, with large increases in the frequency of both summer (June-August, +226±68%) and winter (December-February, +186±34%) extreme storms by the end of the century. Regionally, both North America (summer +202±129%, winter +232±135%) and Europe (summer +390±148%, winter +318±114%) are projected to experience large increases in the frequency of intensely precipitating storms. These changes are thermodynamic and driven by surface warming, rather than by changes in the dynamical behaviour of the storms. Such changes in storm behaviour have the potential to have major impacts on society given intensely precipitating storms are responsible for many large-scale flooding events.

Response of a 2-story test-bed structure for the seismic evaluation of nonstructural systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soroushian, Siavash; Maragakis, E. "Manos"; Zaghi, Arash E.; Rahmanishamsi, Esmaeel; Itani, Ahmad M.; Pekcan, Gokhan

2016-03-01

A full-scale, two-story, two-by-one bay, steel braced-frame was subjected to a number of unidirectional ground motions using three shake tables at the UNR-NEES site. The test-bed frame was designed to study the seismic performance of nonstructural systems including steel-framed gypsum partition walls, suspended ceilings and fire sprinkler systems. The frame can be configured to perform as an elastic or inelastic system to generate large floor accelerations or large inter story drift, respectively. In this study, the dynamic performance of the linear and nonlinear test-beds was comprehensively studied. The seismic performance of nonstructural systems installed in the linear and nonlinear test-beds were assessed during extreme excitations. In addition, the dynamic interactions of the test-bed and installed nonstructural systems are investigated.

Lightweight computational steering of very large scale molecular dynamics simulations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Beazley, D.M.; Lomdahl, P.S.

1996-09-01

We present a computational steering approach for controlling, analyzing, and visualizing very large scale molecular dynamics simulations involving tens to hundreds of millions of atoms. Our approach relies on extensible scripting languages and an easy to use tool for building extensions and modules. The system is extremely easy to modify, works with existing C code, is memory efficient, and can be used from inexpensive workstations and networks. We demonstrate how we have used this system to manipulate data from production MD simulations involving as many as 104 million atoms running on the CM-5 and Cray T3D. We also show howmore » this approach can be used to build systems that integrate common scripting languages (including Tcl/Tk, Perl, and Python), simulation code, user extensions, and commercial data analysis packages.« less

Rare events modeling with support vector machine: Application to forecasting large-amplitude geomagnetic substorms and extreme events in financial markets.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gavrishchaka, V. V.; Ganguli, S. B.

2001-12-01

Reliable forecasting of rare events in a complex dynamical system is a challenging problem that is important for many practical applications. Due to the nature of rare events, data set available for construction of the statistical and/or machine learning model is often very limited and incomplete. Therefore many widely used approaches including such robust algorithms as neural networks can easily become inadequate for rare events prediction. Moreover in many practical cases models with high-dimensional inputs are required. This limits applications of the existing rare event modeling techniques (e.g., extreme value theory) that focus on univariate cases. These approaches are not easily extended to multivariate cases. Support vector machine (SVM) is a machine learning system that can provide an optimal generalization using very limited and incomplete training data sets and can efficiently handle high-dimensional data. These features may allow to use SVM to model rare events in some applications. We have applied SVM-based system to the problem of large-amplitude substorm prediction and extreme event forecasting in stock and currency exchange markets. Encouraging preliminary results will be presented and other possible applications of the system will be discussed.

Weather and extremes in the last Millennium - a challenge for climate modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raible, Christoph C.; Blumer, Sandro R.; Gomez-Navarro, Juan J.; Lehner, Flavio

2015-04-01

Changes in the climate mean state are expected to influence society, but the socio-economic sensitivity to extreme events might be even more severe. Whether or not the current frequency and severity of extreme events is a unique characteristic of anthropogenic-driven climate change can be assessed by putting the observed changes in a long-term perspective. In doing so, early instrumental series and proxy archives are a rich source to investigate also extreme events, in particular during the last millennium, yet they suffer from spatial and temporal scarcity. Therefore, simulations with coupled general circulation models (GCMs) could fill such gaps and help in deepening our process understanding. In this study, an overview of past and current efforts as well as challenges in modelling paleo weather and extreme events is presented. Using simulations of the last millennium we investigate extreme midlatitude cyclone characteristics, precipitation, and their connection to large-scale atmospheric patterns in the North Atlantic European region. In cold climate states such as the Maunder Minimum, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is found to be predominantly in its negative phase. In this sense, simulations of different models agree with proxy findings for this period. However, some proxy data available for this period suggests an increase in storminess during this period, which could be interpreted as a positive phase of the NAO - a superficial contradiction. The simulated cyclones are partly reduced over Europe, which is consistent with the aforementioned negative phase of the NAO. However, as the meridional temperature gradient is increased during this period - which constitutes a source of low-level baroclincity - they also intensify. This example illustrates how model simulations could be used to improve our proxy interpretation and to gain additional process understanding. Nevertheless, there are also limitations associated with climate modeling efforts to simulate the last millennium. In particular, these models still struggle to properly simulate atmospheric blocking events, an important dynamical feature for dry conditions during summer times. Finally, new and promising ways in improving past climate modelling are briefly introduced. In particular, the use of dynamical downscaling is a powerful tool to bridge the gap between the coarsely resolved GCMs and characteristics of the regional climate, which is potentially recorded in proxy archives. In particular, the representation of extreme events could be improved by dynamical downscaling as processes are better resolved than GCMs.

Disordered quivers and cold horizons

DOE PAGES

Anninos, Dionysios; Anous, Tarek; Denef, Frederik

2016-12-15

We analyze the low temperature structure of a supersymmetric quiver quantum mechanics with randomized superpotential coefficients, treating them as quenched disorder. These theories describe features of the low energy dynamics of wrapped branes, which in large number backreact into extremal black holes. We show that the low temperature theory, in the limit of a large number of bifundamentals, exhibits a time reparametrization symmetry as well as a specific heat linear in the temperature. Both these features resemble the behavior of black hole horizons in the zero temperature limit. We demonstrate similarities between the low temperature physics of the random quivermore » model and a theory of large N free fermions with random masses.« less

Near-trench slip potential of megaquakes evaluated from fault properties and conditions

PubMed Central

Hirono, Tetsuro; Tsuda, Kenichi; Tanikawa, Wataru; Ampuero, Jean-Paul; Shibazaki, Bunichiro; Kinoshita, Masataka; Mori, James J.

2016-01-01

Near-trench slip during large megathrust earthquakes (megaquakes) is an important factor in the generation of destructive tsunamis. We proposed a new approach to assessing the near-trench slip potential quantitatively by integrating laboratory-derived properties of fault materials and simulations of fault weakening and rupture propagation. Although the permeability of the sandy Nankai Trough materials are higher than that of the clayey materials from the Japan Trench, dynamic weakening by thermally pressurized fluid is greater at the Nankai Trough owing to higher friction, although initially overpressured fluid at the Nankai Trough restrains the fault weakening. Dynamic rupture simulations reproduced the large slip near the trench observed in the 2011 Tohoku-oki earthquake and predicted the possibility of a large slip of over 30 m for the impending megaquake at the Nankai Trough. Our integrative approach is applicable globally to subduction zones as a novel tool for the prediction of extreme tsunami-producing near-trench slip. PMID:27321861

Extinction risk and eco-evolutionary dynamics in a variable environment with increasing frequency of extreme events

PubMed Central

Vincenzi, Simone

2014-01-01

One of the most dramatic consequences of climate change will be the intensification and increased frequency of extreme events. I used numerical simulations to understand and predict the consequences of directional trend (i.e. mean state) and increased variability of a climate variable (e.g. temperature), increased probability of occurrence of point extreme events (e.g. floods), selection pressure and effect size of mutations on a quantitative trait determining individual fitness, as well as the their effects on the population and genetic dynamics of a population of moderate size. The interaction among climate trend, variability and probability of point extremes had a minor effect on risk of extinction, time to extinction and distribution of the trait after accounting for their independent effects. The survival chances of a population strongly and linearly decreased with increasing strength of selection, as well as with increasing climate trend and variability. Mutation amplitude had no effects on extinction risk, time to extinction or genetic adaptation to the new climate. Climate trend and strength of selection largely determined the shift of the mean phenotype in the population. The extinction or persistence of the populations in an ‘extinction window’ of 10 years was well predicted by a simple model including mean population size and mean genetic variance over a 10-year time frame preceding the ‘extinction window’, although genetic variance had a smaller role than population size in predicting contemporary risk of extinction. PMID:24920116

Dynamic Loading Assembly for Testing Actuators of Segmented Mirror Telescope

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deshmukh, Prasanna Gajanan; Parihar, Padmakar; Balasubramaniam, Karthik A.; Mishra, Deepta Sundar; Mahesh, P. K.

Upcoming large telescopes are based on Segmented Mirror Telescope (SMT) technology which uses small hexagonal mirror segments placed side by side to form the large monolithic surface. The segments alignment needs to be maintained against external disturbances like wind, gravity, temperature and structural vibration. This is achieved by using three position actuators per segment working at few-nanometer scale range along with a local closed loop controller. The actuator along with a controller is required to meet very stringent performance requirements, such as track rates up to 300nm/s (90mN/s) with tracking errors less than 5nm, dynamical forces of up to ±40N, ability to reject disturbances introduced by the wind as well as by mechanical vibration generated in the mirror cell, etc. To conduct these performance tests in more realistic manner, we have designed and developed a Dynamic Loading Assembly (DLA) at Indian Institute of Astrophysics (IIA), Bangalore. DLA is a computer controlled force-inducing device, designed in a modular fashion to generate different types of user-defined disturbances in extremely precise and controlled manner. Before realizing the device, using a simple spring-mass-damper-based mathematical model, we ensured that the concept would indeed work. Subsequently, simple concept was converted into a detailed mechanical design and parts were manufactured and assembled. DLA has static and dynamic loading capabilities up to 250N and 18N respectively, with a bandwidth sufficient to generate wind disturbances. In this paper, we present various performance requirements of SMT actuators as well as our effort to develop a dynamic loading device which can be used to test these actuators. Well before using DLA for meaningful testing of the actuator, the DLA itself have gone through various tests and improvements phases. We have successfully demonstrated that DLA can be used to check the extreme performance of two different SMT actuators, which are expected to track the position/force with a few nanometer accuracy.

Space Solar Power Multi-body Dynamics and Controls, Concepts for the Integrated Symmetrical Concentrator Configuration

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Glaese, John R.; McDonald, Emmett J.

2000-01-01

Orbiting space solar power systems are currently being investigated for possible flight in the time frame of 2015-2020 and later. Such space solar power (SSP) satellites are required to be extremely large in order to make practical the process of collection, conversion to microwave radiation, and reconversion to electrical power at earth stations or at remote locations in space. These large structures are expected to be very flexible presenting unique problems associated with their dynamics and control. The purpose of this project is to apply the expanded TREETOPS multi-body dynamics analysis computer simulation program (with expanded capabilities developed in the previous activity) to investigate the control problems associated with the integrated symmetrical concentrator (ISC) conceptual SSP system. SSP satellites are, as noted, large orbital systems having many bodies (perhaps hundreds) with flexible arrays operating in an orbiting environment where the non-uniform gravitational forces may be the major load producers on the structure so that a high fidelity gravity model is required. The current activity arises from our NRA8-23 SERT proposal. Funding, as a supplemental selection, has been provided by NASA with reduced scope from that originally proposed.

Combining local search with co-evolution in a remarkably simple way

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Boettcher, S.; Percus, A.

2000-05-01

The authors explore a new general-purpose heuristic for finding high-quality solutions to hard optimization problem. The method, called extremal optimization, is inspired by self-organized criticality, a concept introduced to describe emergent complexity in physical systems. In contrast to genetic algorithms, which operate on an entire gene-pool of possible solutions, extremal optimization successively replaces extremely undesirable elements of a single sub-optimal solution with new, random ones. Large fluctuations, or avalanches, ensue that efficiently explore many local optima. Drawing upon models used to simulate far-from-equilibrium dynamics, extremal optimization complements heuristics inspired by equilibrium statistical physics, such as simulated annealing. With only onemore » adjustable parameter, its performance has proved competitive with more elaborate methods, especially near phase transitions. Phase transitions are found in many combinatorial optimization problems, and have been conjectured to occur in the region of parameter space containing the hardest instances. We demonstrate how extremal optimization can be implemented for a variety of hard optimization problems. We believe that this will be a useful tool in the investigation of phase transitions in combinatorial optimization, thereby helping to elucidate the origin of computational complexity.« less

Diagnosing the Prominence-Cavity Connection in the Solar Corona

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schmit, D. J.

The energetic equilibrium of the corona is described by a balance of heating, thermal conduction, and radiative cooling. Prominences can be described by the thermal instability of coronal energy balance which leads to the formation of cool condensations. Observationally, the prominence is surrounded by a density depleted elliptical structure known as a cavity. In this dissertation, we use extreme ultraviolet remote sensing observations of the prominence-cavity system to diagnose the static and dynamic properties of these structures. The observations are compared with numerical models for the time-dependent coronal condensation process and the time-independent corona-prominence magnetic field. To diagnose the density of the cavity, we construct a three-dimensional structural model of the corona. This structural model allows us to synthesize extreme ultraviolet emission in the corona in a way that incorporates the projection effects which arise from the optically thin plasma. This forward model technique is used to constrain a radial density profile simultaneously in the cavity and the streamer. We use a χ2 minimization to find the density model which best matches a density sensitive line ratio (observed with Hinode/Extreme ultraviolet Imaging Spectrometer) and the white light scattered intensity (observed with Mauna Loa Solar Observatory MK4 coronagraph). We use extreme ultraviolet spectra and spectral images to diagnose the dynamics of the prominence and the surrounding corona. Based on the doppler shift of extreme ultraviolet coronal emission lines, we find that there are large regions of flowing plasma which appear to occur within cavities. These line of sight flows have speeds of 10 km/s-1 and projected spatial scales of 100 Mm. Using the Solar Dynamics Observatory Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (SDO/AIA) dataset, we observe dynamic emission from the prominence-cavity system. The SDO/AIA dataset observes multiple spectral bandpasses with different temperature sensitivities. Time-dependent changes in the observed emission in these bandpass images represent changes in the thermodynamic properties of the emitting plasma. We find that the coronal region surrounding the prominence exhibits larger intensity variations (over tens of hours of observations) as compared to the streamer region. This variability is particularly strong in the cool coronal emission of the 171Å bandpass. We identify the source of this variability as strong brightening events that resemble concave-up loop segments and extend from the cool prominence plasma. Magnetic field lines are the basic structural building block of the corona. Energy and pressure balance in the corona occur along magnetic field lines. The large-scale extreme ultraviolet emission we observe in the corona is a conglomerate of many coronal loops projected along a line of sight. In order to calculate the plasma properties at a particular point in the corona, we use one-dimensional models for energy and pressure balance along field lines. In order to predict the extreme ultraviolet emission along a particular line of sight, we project these one-dimensional models onto the three-dimensional magnetic configuration provided by a MHD model for the coronal magnetic field. These results have allowed us to the establish the first comprehensive picture on the magnetic and energetic interaction of the prominence and the cavity. While the originally hypothesis that the cavity supplies mass to the prominence proved inaccurate, we cannot simply say that these structures are not related. Rather our findings suggest that the prominence and the cavity are distinct magnetic substructures that are complementary regions of a larger whole, specifically a magnetic flux rope. (Abstract shortened by UMI.).

Synchronization and Causality Across Time-scales: Complex Dynamics and Extremes in El Niño/Southern Oscillation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jajcay, N.; Kravtsov, S.; Tsonis, A.; Palus, M.

2017-12-01

A better understanding of dynamics in complex systems, such as the Earth's climate is one of the key challenges for contemporary science and society. A large amount of experimental data requires new mathematical and computational approaches. Natural complex systems vary on many temporal and spatial scales, often exhibiting recurring patterns and quasi-oscillatory phenomena. The statistical inference of causal interactions and synchronization between dynamical phenomena evolving on different temporal scales is of vital importance for better understanding of underlying mechanisms and a key for modeling and prediction of such systems. This study introduces and applies information theory diagnostics to phase and amplitude time series of different wavelet components of the observed data that characterizes El Niño. A suite of significant interactions between processes operating on different time scales was detected, and intermittent synchronization among different time scales has been associated with the extreme El Niño events. The mechanisms of these nonlinear interactions were further studied in conceptual low-order and state-of-the-art dynamical, as well as statistical climate models. Observed and simulated interactions exhibit substantial discrepancies, whose understanding may be the key to an improved prediction. Moreover, the statistical framework which we apply here is suitable for direct usage of inferring cross-scale interactions in nonlinear time series from complex systems such as the terrestrial magnetosphere, solar-terrestrial interactions, seismic activity or even human brain dynamics.

North-East monsoon rainfall extremes over the southern peninsular India and their association with El Niño

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, Prem; Gnanaseelan, C.; Chowdary, J. S.

2017-12-01

The present study investigates the relationship between extreme north-east (NE) monsoon rainfall (NEMR) over the Indian peninsula region and El Niño forcing. This turns out to be a critical science issue especially after the 2015 Chennai flood. The puzzle being while most El Niños favour good NE monsoon, some don't. In fact some El Niño years witnessed deficit NE monsoon. Therefore two different cases (or classes) of El Niños are considered for analysis based on standardized NEMR index and Niño 3.4 index with case-1 being both Niño-3.4 and NEMR indices greater than +1 and case-2 being Niño-3.4 index greater than +1 and NEMR index less than -1. Composite analysis suggests that SST anomalies in the central and eastern Pacific are strong in both cases but large differences are noted in the spatial distribution of SST over the Indo-western Pacific region. This questions our understanding of NEMR as mirror image of El Niño conditions in the Pacific. It is noted that the favourable excess NEMR in case-1 is due to anomalous moisture transport from Bay of Bengal and equatorial Indian Ocean to southern peninsular India. Strong SST gradient between warm western Indian Ocean (and Bay of Bengal) and cool western Pacific induced strong easterly wind anomalies during NE monsoon season favour moisture transport towards the core NE monsoon region. Further anomalous moisture convergence and convection over the core NE monsoon region supported positive rainfall anomalies in case-1. While in case-2, weak SST gradients over the Indo-western Pacific and absence of local low level convergence over NE monsoon region are mainly responsible for deficit rainfall. The ocean dynamics in the Indian Ocean displayed large differences during case-1 and case-2, suggesting the key role of Rossby wave dynamics in the Indian Ocean on NE monsoon extremes. Apart from the large scale circulation differences the number of cyclonic systems land fall for case-1 and case-2 have also contributed for variations in NE monsoon rainfall extremes during El Niño years. This study indicates that despite having strong warming in the central and eastern Pacific, NE monsoon rainfall variations over the southern peninsular India is mostly determined by SST gradient over the Indo-western Pacific region and number of systems formation in the Bay of Bengal and their land fall. The paper concludes that though the favourable large scale circulation induced by Pacific is important in modulating the NE monsoon rainfall the local air sea interaction plays a key role in modulating or driving rainfall extremes associated with El Niño.

Conformational dynamism for DNA interaction in the Salmonella RcsB response regulator

PubMed Central

Miguel-Romero, Laura; Huesa, Juanjo; García, Pablo; García-del Portillo, Francisco

2018-01-01

Abstract The RcsCDB phosphorelay system controls an extremely large regulon in Enterobacteriaceae that involves processes such as biofilm formation, flagella production, synthesis of extracellular capsules and cell division. Therefore, fine-tuning of this system is essential for virulence in pathogenic microorganisms of this group. The final master effector of the RcsCDB system is the response regulator (RR) RcsB, which activates or represses multiple genes by binding to different promoter regions. This regulatory activity of RcsB can be done alone or in combination with additional transcriptional factors in phosphorylated or dephosphorylated states. The capacity of RcsB to interact with multiple promoters and partners, either dephosphorylated or phosphorylated, suggests an extremely conformational dynamism for this RR. To shed light on the activation mechanism of RcsB and its implication on promoter recognition, we solved the crystal structure of full-length RcsB from Salmonella enterica serovar Typhimurium in the presence and absence of a phosphomimetic molecule BeF3−. These two novel structures have guided an extensive site-directed mutagenesis study at the structural and functional level that confirms RcsB conformational plasticity and dynamism. Our data allowed us to propose a β5-T switch mechanism where phosphorylation is coupled to alternative DNA binding ways and which highlights the conformational dynamism of RcsB to be so pleiotropic. PMID:29186528

Thermodynamic and dynamic contributions to future changes in summer precipitation over Northeast Asia and Korea: a multi-RCM study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Donghyun; Min, Seung-Ki; Jin, Jonghun; Lee, Ji-Woo; Cha, Dong-Hyun; Suh, Myoung-Seok; Ahn, Joong-Bae; Hong, Song-You; Kang, Hyun-Suk; Joh, Minsu

2017-12-01

This study examines future changes in precipitation over Northeast Asia and Korea using five regional climate model (RCM) simulations driven by single global climate model (GCM) under two representative concentration pathway (RCP) emission scenarios. Focusing on summer season (June-July-August) when heavy rains dominate in this region, future changes in precipitation and associated variables including temperature, moisture, and winds are analyzed by comparing future conditions (2071-2100) with a present climate (1981-2005). Physical mechanisms are examined by analyzing moisture flux convergence at 850 hPa level, which is found to have a close relationship to precipitation and by assessing contribution of thermodynamic effect (TH, moisture increase due to warming) and dynamic effect (DY, atmospheric circulation change) to changes in the moisture flux convergence. Overall background warming and moistening are projected over the Northeast Asia with a good inter-RCM agreement, indicating dominant influence of the driving GCM. Also, RCMs consistently project increases in the frequency of heavy rains and the intensification of extreme precipitation over South Korea. Analysis of moisture flux convergence reveals competing impacts between TH and DY. The TH effect contributes to the overall increases in mean precipitation over Northeast Asia and in extreme precipitation over South Korea, irrespective of models and scenarios. However, DY effect is found to induce local-scale precipitation decreases over the central part of the Korean Peninsula with large inter-RCM and inter-scenario differences. Composite analysis of daily anomaly synoptic patterns indicates that extreme precipitation events are mainly associated with the southwest to northeast evolution of large-scale low-pressure system in both present and future climates.

Dynamics of Extreme Floods in Southeast and South Brazil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ribeiro Lima, C. H.; Lall, U.

2015-12-01

Many extreme floods result from a causal chain, where exceptional rain and floods in water basins from different sizes are related to large scale, anomalous and persistent patterns in atmospheric and oceanic circulation. Organized moisture plumes from oceanic sources are often implicated. One could use an Eulerian-Lagrangian climate model to test a causal chain hypothesis, but the parameterization and testing of such a model covering convection and transport continues to be a challenge. Consequently, empirical data based studies can be useful to establish the need to formally model such events using this approach. Here we consider two flood-prone regions in Southeast and South Brazil as case studies. A hypothesis of the causal chain of extreme floods in these regions is investigated by means of observed streamflow and reanalysis data and some machine learning tools. The signatures of the organization of the large scale atmospheric circulation in the days prior to the flood events are evaluated based on the integrated moisture flux and its divergence field and storm track data, so that a better understanding of the relations between the flood magnitude and duration, strength of moisture convergence and role of regional moisture recycling or teleconnected moisture is established. Persistent patterns and anomalies in the sea surface temperature (SST) field in the Pacific and Atlantic oceans that may be associated with disturbances in the atmospheric circulation and with the flood dynamics are investigated through composite analysis. Finally, machine learning algorithms for nonlinear dimension reduction are employed to visualize and understand some of the spatio-temporal patterns of the dominated climate variables in a reduced dimensional space. Prospects for prediction are discussed.

Evaluation of dynamically downscaled extreme temperature using a spatially-aggregated generalized extreme value (GEV) model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, Jiali; Han, Yuefeng; Stein, Michael L.

2016-02-10

The Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model downscaling skill in extreme maximum daily temperature is evaluated by using the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution. While the GEV distribution has been used extensively in climatology and meteorology for estimating probabilities of extreme events, accurately estimating GEV parameters based on data from a single pixel can be difficult, even with fairly long data records. This work proposes a simple method assuming that the shape parameter, the most difficult of the three parameters to estimate, does not vary over a relatively large region. This approach is applied to evaluate 31-year WRF-downscaled extreme maximummore » temperature through comparison with North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) data. Uncertainty in GEV parameter estimates and the statistical significance in the differences of estimates between WRF and NARR are accounted for by conducting bootstrap resampling. Despite certain biases over parts of the United States, overall, WRF shows good agreement with NARR in the spatial pattern and magnitudes of GEV parameter estimates. Both WRF and NARR show a significant increase in extreme maximum temperature over the southern Great Plains and southeastern United States in January and over the western United States in July. The GEV model shows clear benefits from the regionally constant shape parameter assumption, for example, leading to estimates of the location and scale parameters of the model that show coherent spatial patterns.« less

Suction is kid's play: extremely fast suction in newborn seahorses.

PubMed

Van Wassenbergh, Sam; Roos, Gert; Genbrugge, Annelies; Leysen, Heleen; Aerts, Peter; Adriaens, Dominique; Herrel, Anthony

2009-04-23

Ongoing anatomical development typically results in a gradual maturation of the feeding movements from larval to adult fishes. Adult seahorses are known to capture prey by rotating their long-snouted head extremely quickly towards prey, followed by powerful suction. This type of suction is powered by elastic recoil and requires very precise coordination of the movements of the associated feeding structures, making it an all-or-none phenomenon. Here, we show that newborn Hippocampus reidi are able to successfully feed using an extremely rapid and powerful snout rotation combined with a high-volume suction, surpassing that observed in adult seahorses. An inverse dynamic analysis shows that an elastic recoil mechanism is also used to power head rotation in newborn H. reidi. This illustrates how extreme levels of performance in highly complex musculoskeletal systems can be present at birth given a delayed birth and rapid development of functionally important structures. The fact that the head skeleton of newborn seahorses is still largely cartilaginous may not be problematic because the hydrodynamic stress on the rotating snout appeared considerably lower than in adult syngnathids.

Suction is kid's play: extremely fast suction in newborn seahorses

PubMed Central

Van Wassenbergh, Sam; Roos, Gert; Genbrugge, Annelies; Leysen, Heleen; Aerts, Peter; Adriaens, Dominique; Herrel, Anthony

2009-01-01

Ongoing anatomical development typically results in a gradual maturation of the feeding movements from larval to adult fishes. Adult seahorses are known to capture prey by rotating their long-snouted head extremely quickly towards prey, followed by powerful suction. This type of suction is powered by elastic recoil and requires very precise coordination of the movements of the associated feeding structures, making it an all-or-none phenomenon. Here, we show that newborn Hippocampus reidi are able to successfully feed using an extremely rapid and powerful snout rotation combined with a high-volume suction, surpassing that observed in adult seahorses. An inverse dynamic analysis shows that an elastic recoil mechanism is also used to power head rotation in newborn H. reidi. This illustrates how extreme levels of performance in highly complex musculoskeletal systems can be present at birth given a delayed birth and rapid development of functionally important structures. The fact that the head skeleton of newborn seahorses is still largely cartilaginous may not be problematic because the hydrodynamic stress on the rotating snout appeared considerably lower than in adult syngnathids. PMID:19324657

Origins of extreme broadening mechanisms in near-edge x-ray spectra of nitrogen compounds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vinson, John; Jach, Terrence; Elam, W. T.; Denlinger, J. D.

2014-11-01

We demonstrate the observation of many-body lifetime effects in valence-band x-ray emission. A comparison of the N K α emission of crystalline ammonium nitrate to molecular-orbital calculations revealed an unexpected, extreme broadening of the NO σ recombination—so extensively as to virtually disappear. GW calculations establish that this disappearance is due to a large imaginary component of the self-energy associated with the NO σ orbitals. Building upon density-functional theory, we have calculated radiative transitions from the nitrogen 1 s level of ammonium nitrate and ammonium chloride using a Bethe-Salpeter method to include electron-hole interactions. The absorption and emission spectra of both crystals evince large, orbital-dependent sensitivity to molecular dynamics. We demonstrate that many-body effects as well as thermal and zero-point motion are vital for understanding observed spectra. A computational approach using average atomic positions and uniform broadening to account for lifetime and phonon effects is unsatisfactory.

Visualization of nanocrystal breathing modes at extreme strains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Szilagyi, Erzsi; Wittenberg, Joshua S.; Miller, Timothy A.; Lutker, Katie; Quirin, Florian; Lemke, Henrik; Zhu, Diling; Chollet, Matthieu; Robinson, Joseph; Wen, Haidan; Sokolowski-Tinten, Klaus; Lindenberg, Aaron M.

2015-03-01

Nanoscale dimensions in materials lead to unique electronic and structural properties with applications ranging from site-specific drug delivery to anodes for lithium-ion batteries. These functional properties often involve large-amplitude strains and structural modifications, and thus require an understanding of the dynamics of these processes. Here we use femtosecond X-ray scattering techniques to visualize, in real time and with atomic-scale resolution, light-induced anisotropic strains in nanocrystal spheres and rods. Strains at the percent level are observed in CdS and CdSe samples, associated with a rapid expansion followed by contraction along the nanosphere or nanorod radial direction driven by a transient carrier-induced stress. These morphological changes occur simultaneously with the first steps in the melting transition on hundreds of femtosecond timescales. This work represents the first direct real-time probe of the dynamics of these large-amplitude strains and shape changes in few-nanometre-scale particles.

Motion and dynamic responses of a semisubmersible in freak waves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Xin; Deng, Yan-fei; Li, Lei; Tian, Xin-liang; Li, Jun

2017-12-01

The present research aims at clarifying the effects of freak wave on the motion and dynamic responses of a semisubmersible. To reveal the effects of mooring stiffness, two mooring systems were employed in the model tests and time-domain simulations. The 6-DOF motion responses and mooring tensions have been measured and the 3-DOF motions of fairleads were calculated as well. From the time series, trajectories and statistics information, the interactions between the freak wave and the semisubmersible have been demonstrated and the effects of mooring stiffness have been identified. The shortage of numerical simulations based on 3D potential flow theory is presented. Results show that the freak wave is likely to cause large horizontal motions for soft mooring system and to result in extremely large mooring tensions for tight mooring system. Therefore, the freak wave is a real threat for the marine structure, which needs to be carefully considered at design stage.

Robust, nonlinear, high angle-of-attack control design for a supermaneuverable vehicle

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Adams, Richard J.

1993-01-01

High angle-of-attack flight control laws are developed for a supermaneuverable fighter aircraft. The methods of dynamic inversion and structured singular value synthesis are combined into an approach which addresses both the nonlinearity and robustness problems of flight at extreme operating conditions. The primary purpose of the dynamic inversion control elements is to linearize the vehicle response across the flight envelope. Structured singular value synthesis is used to design a dynamic controller which provides robust tracking to pilot commands. The resulting control system achieves desired flying qualities and guarantees a large margin of robustness to uncertainties for high angle-of-attack flight conditions. The results of linear simulation and structured singular value stability analysis are presented to demonstrate satisfaction of the design criteria. High fidelity nonlinear simulation results show that the combined dynamics inversion/structured singular value synthesis control law achieves a high level of performance in a realistic environment.

Impacts of extreme heat and drought on crop yields in China: an assessment by using the DLEM-AG2 model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, J.; Yang, J.; Pan, S.; Tian, H.

2016-12-01

China is not only one of the major agricultural production countries with the largest population in the world, but it is also the most susceptible to climate change and extreme events. Much concern has been raised about how extreme climate has affected crop yield, which is crucial for China's food supply security. However, the quantitative assessment of extreme heat and drought impacts on crop yield in China has rarely been investigated. By using the Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model (DLEM-AG2), a highly integrated process-based ecosystem model with crop-specific simulation, here we quantified spatial and temporal patterns of extreme climatic heat and drought stress and their impacts on the yields of major food crops (rice, wheat, maize, and soybean) across China during 1981-2015, and further investigated the underlying mechanisms. Simulated results showed that extreme heat and drought stress significantly reduced national cereal production and increased the yield gaps between potential yield and rain-fed yield. The drought stress was the primary factor to reduce crop yields in the semi-arid and arid regions, and extreme heat stress slightly aggravated the yield loss. The yield gap between potential yield and rain-fed yield was larger at locations with lower precipitation. Our results suggest that a large exploitable yield gap in response to extreme climatic heat-drought stress offers an opportunity to increase productivity in China by optimizing agronomic practices, such as irrigation, fertilizer use, sowing density, and sowing date.

Root structural and functional dynamics in terrestrial biosphere models--evaluation and recommendations.

PubMed

Warren, Jeffrey M; Hanson, Paul J; Iversen, Colleen M; Kumar, Jitendra; Walker, Anthony P; Wullschleger, Stan D

2015-01-01

There is wide breadth of root function within ecosystems that should be considered when modeling the terrestrial biosphere. Root structure and function are closely associated with control of plant water and nutrient uptake from the soil, plant carbon (C) assimilation, partitioning and release to the soils, and control of biogeochemical cycles through interactions within the rhizosphere. Root function is extremely dynamic and dependent on internal plant signals, root traits and morphology, and the physical, chemical and biotic soil environment. While plant roots have significant structural and functional plasticity to changing environmental conditions, their dynamics are noticeably absent from the land component of process-based Earth system models used to simulate global biogeochemical cycling. Their dynamic representation in large-scale models should improve model veracity. Here, we describe current root inclusion in models across scales, ranging from mechanistic processes of single roots to parameterized root processes operating at the landscape scale. With this foundation we discuss how existing and future root functional knowledge, new data compilation efforts, and novel modeling platforms can be leveraged to enhance root functionality in large-scale terrestrial biosphere models by improving parameterization within models, and introducing new components such as dynamic root distribution and root functional traits linked to resource extraction. No claim to original US Government works. New Phytologist © 2014 New Phytologist Trust.

Potential effects of climate change on aquatic ecosystems of the Great Plains of North America

USGS Publications Warehouse

Covich, A.P.; Fritz, S.C.; Lamb, P.J.; Marzolf, R.D.; Matthews, W.J.; Poiani, K.A.; Prepas, E.E.; Richman, M.B.; Winter, T.C.

1997-01-01

The Great Plains landscape is less topographically complex than most other regions within North America, but diverse aquatic ecosystems, such as playas, pothole lakes, ox-bow lakes, springs, groundwater aquifers, intermittent and ephemeral streams, as well as large rivers and wetlands, are highly dynamic and responsive to extreme climatic fluctuations. We review the evidence for climatic change that demonstrates the historical importance of extremes in north-south differences in summer temperatures and east-west differences in aridity across four large subregions. These physical driving forces alter density stratification, deoxygenation, decomposition and salinity. Biotic community composition and associated ecosystem processes of productivity and nutrient cycling respond rapidly to these climatically driven dynamics. Ecosystem processes also respond to cultural effects such as dams and diversions of water for irrigation, waste dilution and urban demands for drinking water and industrial uses. Distinguishing climatic from cultural effects in future models of aquatic ecosystem functioning will require more refinement in both climatic and economic forecasting. There is a need, for example, to predict how long-term climatic forecasts (based on both ENSO and global warming simulations) relate to the permanence and productivity of shallow water ecosystems. Aquatic ecologists, hydrologists, climatologists and geographers have much to discuss regarding the synthesis of available data and the design of future interdisciplinary research. ?? 1997 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The role of horizontal thermal advection in regulating wintertime mean and extreme temperatures over the central United States during the past and future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, F.; Vavrus, S. J.

2017-12-01

Horizontal temperature advection plays an especially prominent role in affecting winter climate over continental interiors, where both climatological conditions and extreme weather are strongly regulated by transport of remote air masses. Central North America is one such region, and it experienced a major cold-air outbreak (CAO) a few years ago that some have related to amplified Arctic warming. Despite the known importance of dynamics in shaping the winter climate of this sector and the potential for climate change to modify heat transport, limited attention has been paid to the regional impact of thermal advection. Here, we use a reanalysis product and output from the Community Earth System Model's Large Ensemble to quantify the roles of zonal and meridional temperature advection over the central U. S. during winter, both in the late 20th and 21st centuries. We frame our findings as a "tug of war" between opposing influences of the two advection components and between these dynamical forcings vs. thermodynamic changes under greenhouse warming. For example, Arctic amplification leads to much warmer polar air masses, causing a moderation of cold-air advection into the central U. S., yet the model also simulates a wavier mean circulation and stronger northerly flow during CAOs, favoring lower regional temperatures. We also compare the predominant warming effect of zonal advection and overall cooling effect of meridional temperature advection as an additional tug of war. During both historical and future periods, zonal temperature advection is stronger than meridional advection over the Central U. S. The model simulates a future weakening of both zonal and meridional temperature advection, such that westerly flow provides less warming and northerly flow less cooling. On the most extreme warm days in the past and future, both zonal and meridional temperature advection have positive (warming) contributions. On the most extreme cold days, meridional cold air advection is more important than zonal warm air advection. CAOs in the future feature stronger northerly flow but less extreme temperatures (even relative to the warmer climate), exemplifying the complex competition between thermodynamic and dynamic influences.

Considering transient population dynamics in the conservation of slow life-history species: An application to the sandhill crane

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gerber, Brian D.; Kendall, William L.

2016-01-01

The importance of transient dynamics of structured populations is increasingly recognized in ecology, yet these implications are not largely considered in conservation practices. We investigate transient and long-term population dynamics to demonstrate the process and utility of incorporating transient dynamics into conservation research and to better understand the population management of slow life-history species; these species can be theoretically highly sensitive to short- and long-term transient effects. We are specifically interested in the effects of anthropogenic removal of individuals from populations, such as caused by harvest, poaching, translocation, or incidental take. We use the sandhill crane (Grus canadensis) as an exemplar species; it is long-lived, has low reproduction, late maturity, and multiple populations are subject to sport harvest. We found sandhill cranes to have extremely high potential, but low likelihood for transient dynamics, even when the population is being harvested. The typically low population growth rate of slow life-history species appears to buffer against many perturbations causing large transient effects. Transient dynamics will dominate population trajectories of these species when stage structures are highly biased towards the younger and non-reproducing individuals, a situation that may be rare in established populations of long-lived animals. However, short-term transient population growth can be highly sensitive to vital rates that are relatively insensitive under equilibrium, suggesting that stage structure should be known if perturbation analysis is used to identify effective conservation strategies. For populations of slow life-history species that are not prone to large perturbations to their most productive individuals, population growth may be approximated by equilibrium dynamics.

Controlling extreme events on complex networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Yu-Zhong; Huang, Zi-Gang; Lai, Ying-Cheng

2014-08-01

Extreme events, a type of collective behavior in complex networked dynamical systems, often can have catastrophic consequences. To develop effective strategies to control extreme events is of fundamental importance and practical interest. Utilizing transportation dynamics on complex networks as a prototypical setting, we find that making the network ``mobile'' can effectively suppress extreme events. A striking, resonance-like phenomenon is uncovered, where an optimal degree of mobility exists for which the probability of extreme events is minimized. We derive an analytic theory to understand the mechanism of control at a detailed and quantitative level, and validate the theory numerically. Implications of our finding to current areas such as cybersecurity are discussed.

A fast and precise indoor localization algorithm based on an online sequential extreme learning machine.

PubMed

Zou, Han; Lu, Xiaoxuan; Jiang, Hao; Xie, Lihua

2015-01-15

Nowadays, developing indoor positioning systems (IPSs) has become an attractive research topic due to the increasing demands on location-based service (LBS) in indoor environments. WiFi technology has been studied and explored to provide indoor positioning service for years in view of the wide deployment and availability of existing WiFi infrastructures in indoor environments. A large body of WiFi-based IPSs adopt fingerprinting approaches for localization. However, these IPSs suffer from two major problems: the intensive costs of manpower and time for offline site survey and the inflexibility to environmental dynamics. In this paper, we propose an indoor localization algorithm based on an online sequential extreme learning machine (OS-ELM) to address the above problems accordingly. The fast learning speed of OS-ELM can reduce the time and manpower costs for the offline site survey. Meanwhile, its online sequential learning ability enables the proposed localization algorithm to adapt in a timely manner to environmental dynamics. Experiments under specific environmental changes, such as variations of occupancy distribution and events of opening or closing of doors, are conducted to evaluate the performance of OS-ELM. The simulation and experimental results show that the proposed localization algorithm can provide higher localization accuracy than traditional approaches, due to its fast adaptation to various environmental dynamics.

Blended particle filters for large-dimensional chaotic dynamical systems

PubMed Central

Majda, Andrew J.; Qi, Di; Sapsis, Themistoklis P.

2014-01-01

A major challenge in contemporary data science is the development of statistically accurate particle filters to capture non-Gaussian features in large-dimensional chaotic dynamical systems. Blended particle filters that capture non-Gaussian features in an adaptively evolving low-dimensional subspace through particles interacting with evolving Gaussian statistics on the remaining portion of phase space are introduced here. These blended particle filters are constructed in this paper through a mathematical formalism involving conditional Gaussian mixtures combined with statistically nonlinear forecast models compatible with this structure developed recently with high skill for uncertainty quantification. Stringent test cases for filtering involving the 40-dimensional Lorenz 96 model with a 5-dimensional adaptive subspace for nonlinear blended filtering in various turbulent regimes with at least nine positive Lyapunov exponents are used here. These cases demonstrate the high skill of the blended particle filter algorithms in capturing both highly non-Gaussian dynamical features as well as crucial nonlinear statistics for accurate filtering in extreme filtering regimes with sparse infrequent high-quality observations. The formalism developed here is also useful for multiscale filtering of turbulent systems and a simple application is sketched below. PMID:24825886

Origin and dynamics of depositionary subduction margins

USGS Publications Warehouse

Vannucchi, Paola; Morgan, Jason P.; Silver, Eli; Kluesner, Jared W.

2016-01-01

Here we propose a new framework for forearc evolution that focuses on the potential feedbacks between subduction tectonics, sedimentation, and geomorphology that take place during an extreme event of subduction erosion. These feedbacks can lead to the creation of a “depositionary forearc,” a forearc structure that extends the traditional division of forearcs into accretionary or erosive subduction margins by demonstrating a mode of rapid basin accretion during an erosive event at a subduction margin. A depositionary mode of forearc evolution occurs when terrigenous sediments are deposited directly on the forearc while it is being removed from below by subduction erosion. In the most extreme case, an entire forearc can be removed by a single subduction erosion event followed by depositionary replacement without involving transfer of sediments from the incoming plate. We need to further recognize that subduction forearcs are often shaped by interactions between slow, long-term processes, and sudden extreme events reflecting the sudden influences of large-scale morphological variations in the incoming plate. Both types of processes contribute to the large-scale architecture of the forearc, with extreme events associated with a replacive depositionary mode that rapidly creates sections of a typical forearc margin. The persistent upward diversion of the megathrust is likely to affect its geometry, frictional nature, and hydrogeology. Therefore, the stresses along the fault and individual earthquake rupture characteristics are also expected to be more variable in these erosive systems than in systems with long-lived megathrust surfaces.

Extinction risk and eco-evolutionary dynamics in a variable environment with increasing frequency of extreme events.

PubMed

Vincenzi, Simone

2014-08-06

One of the most dramatic consequences of climate change will be the intensification and increased frequency of extreme events. I used numerical simulations to understand and predict the consequences of directional trend (i.e. mean state) and increased variability of a climate variable (e.g. temperature), increased probability of occurrence of point extreme events (e.g. floods), selection pressure and effect size of mutations on a quantitative trait determining individual fitness, as well as the their effects on the population and genetic dynamics of a population of moderate size. The interaction among climate trend, variability and probability of point extremes had a minor effect on risk of extinction, time to extinction and distribution of the trait after accounting for their independent effects. The survival chances of a population strongly and linearly decreased with increasing strength of selection, as well as with increasing climate trend and variability. Mutation amplitude had no effects on extinction risk, time to extinction or genetic adaptation to the new climate. Climate trend and strength of selection largely determined the shift of the mean phenotype in the population. The extinction or persistence of the populations in an 'extinction window' of 10 years was well predicted by a simple model including mean population size and mean genetic variance over a 10-year time frame preceding the 'extinction window', although genetic variance had a smaller role than population size in predicting contemporary risk of extinction. © 2014 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

GROMACS 4:  Algorithms for Highly Efficient, Load-Balanced, and Scalable Molecular Simulation.

PubMed

Hess, Berk; Kutzner, Carsten; van der Spoel, David; Lindahl, Erik

2008-03-01

Molecular simulation is an extremely useful, but computationally very expensive tool for studies of chemical and biomolecular systems. Here, we present a new implementation of our molecular simulation toolkit GROMACS which now both achieves extremely high performance on single processors from algorithmic optimizations and hand-coded routines and simultaneously scales very well on parallel machines. The code encompasses a minimal-communication domain decomposition algorithm, full dynamic load balancing, a state-of-the-art parallel constraint solver, and efficient virtual site algorithms that allow removal of hydrogen atom degrees of freedom to enable integration time steps up to 5 fs for atomistic simulations also in parallel. To improve the scaling properties of the common particle mesh Ewald electrostatics algorithms, we have in addition used a Multiple-Program, Multiple-Data approach, with separate node domains responsible for direct and reciprocal space interactions. Not only does this combination of algorithms enable extremely long simulations of large systems but also it provides that simulation performance on quite modest numbers of standard cluster nodes.

Sea ice convergence along the Arctic coasts of Greenland and the Canadian Arctic Archipelago: Variability and extremes (1992-2014)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kwok, Ron

2015-09-01

After the summer of 2013, a convergence-induced tail in the thickness distribution of the ice cover is found along the Arctic coasts of Greenland and Canadian Arctic Archipelago. Prompted by this, a normalized ice convergence index (ICI) is introduced to examine the variability and extremes in convergence in a 23 year record (1992-2014) of monthly ice drift. Large-scale composites of circulation patterns, characteristic of regional convergence and divergence, are examined. Indeed, the ICI shows the June 2013 convergence event to be an extreme (i.e., ICI > 2). Furthermore, there is a cluster of 9 months over a 17 month period with positive ICIs (i.e., >1) following the record summer minimum ice extent (SMIE) in 2012; the imprint of ice dynamics from this cluster of positive ICIs likely contributed to higher SMIEs in 2013 and 2014. The impact of convergence on SMIE is discussed, and the increase in Arctic ice volume in 2013 is underscored.

Potentially Extreme Population Displacement and Concentration in the Tropics Under Non-Extreme Warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hsiang, Solomon M.; Sobel, Adam H.

2016-06-01

Evidence increasingly suggests that as climate warms, some plant, animal, and human populations may move to preserve their environmental temperature. The distances they must travel to do this depends on how much cooler nearby surfaces temperatures are. Because large-scale atmospheric dynamics constrain surface temperatures to be nearly uniform near the equator, these displacements can grow to extreme distances in the tropics, even under relatively mild warming scenarios. Here we show that in order to preserve their annual mean temperatures, tropical populations would have to travel distances greater than 1000 km over less than a century if global mean temperature rises by 2 °C over the same period. The disproportionately rapid evacuation of the tropics under such a scenario would cause migrants to concentrate in tropical margins and the subtropics, where population densities would increase 300% or more. These results may have critical consequences for ecosystem and human wellbeing in tropical contexts where alternatives to geographic displacement are limited.

Moisture source classification of heavy precipitation events in Switzerland in the last 130 years (1871-2011)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aemisegger, Franziska; Piaget, Nicolas

2017-04-01

A new weather-system oriented classification framework of extreme precipitation events leading to large-scale floods in Switzerland is presented on this poster. Thirty-six high impact floods in the last 130 years are assigned to three representative categories of atmospheric moisture origin and transport patterns. The methodology underlying this moisture source classification combines information of the airmass history in the twenty days preceding the precipitation event with humidity variations along the large-scale atmospheric transport systems in a Lagrangian approach. The classification scheme is defined using the 33-year ERA-Interim reanalysis dataset (1979-2011) and is then applied to the Twentieth Century Reanalysis (1871-2011) extreme precipitation events as well as the 36 selected floods. The three defined categories are characterised by different dominant moisture uptake regions including the North Atlantic, the Mediterranean and continental Europe. Furthermore, distinct anomalies in the large-scale atmospheric flow are associated with the different categories. The temporal variations in the relative importance of the three categories over the last 130 years provides new insights into the impact of changing climate conditions on the dynamical mechanisms leading to heavy precipitation in Switzerland.

Extreme events in total ozone over Arosa - Part 2: Fingerprints of atmospheric dynamics and chemistry and effects on mean values and long-term changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rieder, H. E.; Staehelin, J.; Maeder, J. A.; Peter, T.; Ribatet, M.; Davison, A. C.; Stübi, R.; Weihs, P.; Holawe, F.

2010-10-01

In this study the frequency of days with extreme low (termed ELOs) and extreme high (termed EHOs) total ozone values and their influence on mean values and trends are analyzed for the world's longest total ozone record (Arosa, Switzerland). The results show (i) an increase in ELOs and (ii) a decrease in EHOs during the last decades and (iii) that the overall trend during the 1970s and 1980s in total ozone is strongly dominated by changes in these extreme events. After removing the extremes, the time series shows a strongly reduced trend (reduction by a factor of 2.5 for trend in annual mean). Excursions in the frequency of extreme events reveal "fingerprints" of dynamical factors such as ENSO or NAO, and chemical factors, such as cold Arctic vortex ozone losses, as well as major volcanic eruptions of the 20th century (Gunung Agung, El Chichón, Mt. Pinatubo). Furthermore, atmospheric loading of ozone depleting substances leads to a continuous modification of column ozone in the Northern Hemisphere also with respect to extreme values (partly again in connection with polar vortex contributions). Application of extreme value theory allows the identification of many more such "fingerprints" than conventional time series analysis of annual and seasonal mean values. The analysis shows in particular the strong influence of dynamics, revealing that even moderate ENSO and NAO events have a discernible effect on total ozone. Overall the approach to extremal modelling provides new information on time series properties, variability, trends and the influence of dynamics and chemistry, complementing earlier analyses focusing only on monthly (or annual) mean values.

Extreme events in total ozone over Arosa - Part 2: Fingerprints of atmospheric dynamics and chemistry and effects on mean values and long-term changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rieder, H. E.; Staehelin, J.; Maeder, J. A.; Peter, T.; Ribatet, M.; Davison, A. C.; Stübi, R.; Weihs, P.; Holawe, F.

2010-05-01

In this study the frequency of days with extreme low (termed ELOs) and extreme high (termed EHOs) total ozone values and their influence on mean values and trends are analyzed for the world's longest total ozone record (Arosa, Switzerland). The results show (a) an increase in ELOs and (b) a decrease in EHOs during the last decades and (c) that the overall trend during the 1970s and 1980s in total ozone is strongly dominated by changes in these extreme events. After removing the extremes, the time series shows a strongly reduced trend (reduction by a factor of 2.5 for trend in annual mean). Excursions in the frequency of extreme events reveal "fingerprints" of dynamical factors such as ENSO or NAO, and chemical factors, such as cold Arctic vortex ozone losses, as well as major volcanic eruptions of the 20th century (Gunung Agung, El Chichón, Mt. Pinatubo). Furthermore, atmospheric loading of ozone depleting substances leads to a continuous modification of column ozone in the Northern Hemisphere also with respect to extreme values (partly again in connection with polar vortex contributions). Application of extreme value theory allows the identification of many more such "fingerprints" than conventional time series analysis of annual and seasonal mean values. The analysis shows in particular the strong influence of dynamics, revealing that even moderate ENSO and NAO events have a discernible effect on total ozone. Overall the approach to extremal modelling provides new information on time series properties, variability, trends and the influence of dynamics and chemistry, complementing earlier analyses focusing only on monthly (or annual) mean values.

Examining Projected Changes in Weather & Air Quality Extremes Between 2000 & 2030 using Dynamical Downscaling

EPA Science Inventory

Climate change may alter regional weather extremes resulting in a range of environmental impacts including changes in air quality, water quality and availability, energy demands, agriculture, and ecology. Dynamical downscaling simulations were conducted with the Weather Research...

Evidence of Teleconnections between the Peruvian central Andes and Northeast Brazil during extreme rainfall events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sulca, J. C.; Vuille, M. F.; Silva, F. Y.; Takahashi, K.

2013-12-01

Knowledge about changes in regional circulation and physical processes associated with extreme rainfall events in South America is limited. Here we investigate such events over the Mantaro basin (MB) located at (10°S-13°S; 73°W-76°W) in the central Peruvian Andes and Northeastern Brazil (NEB), located at (9°S-15°S; 39°W-46°W). Occasional dry and wet spells can be observed in both areas during the austral summer season. The main goal of this study is to investigate potential teleconnections between extreme rainfall events in MB and NEB during austral summer. We define wet (dry) spells as periods that last for at least 3 (5) consecutive days with rainfall above (below) the 70 (30) percentile. To identify the dates of ocurrence of these events, we used daily accumulated rainfall data from 14 climate stations located in the Mantaro basin for the period 1965 to 2002. In NEB we defined a rainfall index which is based on average daily gridded rainfall data within the region for the same period. Dry (wet spells) in the MB are associated with positive (negative) OLR anomalies which extend over much of the tropical Andes, indicating the large-scale nature of these events. At 200 hPa anomalous easterly (westerly) zonal winds aloft accompany wet (dry) spells. Composite anomalies of dry spells in MB reveal significant contemporaneous precipitation anomalies of the opposite sign over NEB, which suggest that intraseasonal precipitation variability over the two regions may be dynamically linked. Indeed upper-tropospheric circulation anomalies over the central Andes extend across South America and appear to be tied to an adjustment in the Bolivian High-Nordeste Low system. Dry (wet) spells in NEB are equally associated with a large-scale pattern of positive (negative) OLR anomalies; however, there are no related significant OLR anomalies over the MB during these events. Dry (wet) spells are associated with robust patterns of anomalous wind fields at both low and upper levels, caused by a changing position of the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ) toward the southwest (northeast). But, there is no coincident robust pattern of wind anomalies over the Mantaro Basin. In conclusion, dry spells in the Mantaro basin appear to be dynamically linked to wet spells in NEB, since 62% of all dry events in MB coincide with wet spells in NEB (35% of all events). The dynamical link explaining the observed teleconnection and the resulting dipole pattern between precipitation extremes in the MB and NEB region, respectively, appears to be related to intraseasonal variability in the Bolivian High - Nordeste Low system. Only 26.53% of all wet spells, however, coincide with dry spells in NEB (12.15% of all events). While circulation anomalies that affect precipitation extremes in the MB have the potential to also affect the precipitation characteristics in NEB, the opposite is not the case. Extreme events in NEB are primarily affected by NE-SW displacement in the SACZ, a mechanism that is of little relevance for precipitation extremes in the MB.

The Impact of Progenitor Mass Loss on the Dynamical and Spectral Evolution of Supernova Remnants

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Patnaude, Daniel J.; Lee, Shiu-Hang; Slane, Patrick O.; Badenes, Carles; Nagataki, Shigehiro; Ellison, Donald C.; Milisavljevic, Dan

2017-11-01

There is now substantial evidence that the progenitors of some core-collapse supernovae undergo enhanced or extreme mass loss prior to explosion. The imprint of this mass loss is observed in the spectra and dynamics of the expanding blast wave on timescales of days to years after core collapse, and the effects on the spectral and dynamical evolution may linger long after the supernova has evolved into the remnant stage. In this paper, we present, for the first time, largely self-consistent end-to-end simulations for the evolution of a massive star from the pre-main sequence, up to and through core collapse, and into the remnant phase. We present three models and compare and contrast how the progenitor mass-loss history impacts the dynamics and spectral evolution of the supernovae and supernova remnants. We study a model that only includes steady mass loss, a model with enhanced mass loss over a period of ˜5000 yr prior to core collapse, and a model with extreme mass loss over a period of ˜500 yr prior to core collapse. The models are not meant to address any particular supernova or supernova remnant, but rather to highlight the important role that the progenitor evolution plays in the observable qualities of supernovae and supernova remnants. Through comparisons of these three different progenitor evolution scenarios, we find that the mass loss in late stages (during and after core carbon burning) can have a profound impact on the dynamics and spectral evolution of the supernova remnant centuries after core collapse.

Modeling of the blood flow in the lower extremities for dynamic diffuse optical tomography of peripheral artery disease

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marone, A.; Hoi, J. W.; Khalil, M. A.; Kim, H. K.; Shrikhande, G.; Dayal, R.; Hielscher, A. H.

2015-07-01

Peripheral Arterial Disease (PAD) is caused by a reduction of the internal diameters of the arteries in the upper or lower extremities mainly due to atherosclerosis. If not treated, its worsening may led to a complete occlusion, causing the death of the cells lacking proper blood supply, followed by gangrene that may require chirurgical amputation. We have recently performed a clinical study in which good sensitivities and specificities were achieved with dynamic diffuse optical tomography. To gain a better understanding of the physiological foundations of many of the observed effects, we started to develop a mathematical model for PAD. The model presented in this work is based on a multi-compartment Windkessel model, where the vasculature in the leg and foot is represented by resistors and capacitors, the blood pressure with a voltage drop, and the blood flow with a current. Unlike existing models, the dynamics induced by a thigh-pressure-cuff inflation and deflation during the measurements are taken into consideration. This is achieved by dynamically varying the resistances of the large veins and arteries. By including the effects of the thigh-pressure cuff, we were able to explain many of the effects observed during our dynamic DOT measurements, including the hemodynamics of oxy- and deoxy-hemoglobin concentration changes. The model was implemented in MATLAB and the simulations were normalized and compared with the blood perfusion obtained from healthy, PAD and diabetic patients. Our preliminary results show that in unhealthy patients the total system resistance is sensibly higher than in healthy patients.

Causing Factors for Extreme Precipitation in the Western Saudi-Arabian Peninsula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alharbi, M. M.; Leckebusch, G. C.

2015-12-01

In the western coast of Saudi Arabia the climate is in general semi-arid but extreme precipitation events occur on a regular basis: e.g., on 26th November 2009, when 122 people were killed and 350 reported missing in Jeddah following more than 90mm in just four hours. Our investigation will a) analyse major drivers of the generation of extremes and b) investigate major responsible modes of variability for the occurrence of extremes. Firstly, we present a systematic analysis of station based observations of the most relevant extreme events (1985-2013) for 5 stations (Gizan, Makkah, Jeddah, Yenbo and Wejh). Secondly, we investigate the responsible mechanism on the synoptic to large-scale leading to the generation of extremes and will analyse factors for the time variability of extreme event occurrence. Extreme events for each station are identified in the wet season (Nov-Jan): 122 events show intensity above the respective 90th percentile. The most extreme events are systematically investigated with respect to the responsible forcing conditions which we can identify as: The influence of the Soudan Low, active Red-Sea-Trough situations established via interactions with mid-latitude tropospheric wave activity, low pressure systems over the Mediterranean, the influence of the North Africa High, the Arabian Anticyclone and the influence of the Indian monsoon trough. We investigate the role of dynamical forcing factors like the STJ and the upper-troposphere geopotential conditions and the relation to smaller local low-pressure systems. By means of an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis based on MSLP we investigate the possibility to objectively quantify the influence of existing major variability modes and their role for the generation of extreme precipitation events.

Large wood recruitment and transport during a severe flash flood in North-western Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lucía, Ana; Comiti, Francesco; Borga, Marco; Cavalli, Marco; Marchi, Lorenzo

2013-04-01

Understanding and modelling the dynamics of large wood (LW) in rivers during flood events has spurred a great deal of research in recent years. Whereas most of the research on LW has focused on its spatial distribution and geomorphologic role at longer time scales, only few studies have documented the effect of high-magnitude flash floods on LW recruitment, transport and deposition. On October 25th2011, the Magra river basin (North-western Italy) was hit by an extreme meteorological event, with hourly rainrates up to 130 mm h-1 and event rain accumulations up to 540 mm. Such large rainfall intensities originated flash floods in the main river channels and in some of the tributaries, with unit peak discharges up to around 20 m3s-1km-2 in catchments of 10-20 km2, causing severe damages and loss of lives. Numerous landslides were triggered and the morphology of the tributaries was highly affected in response to intense lateral and vertical channel dynamics. Besides, many bridges were partly or fully clogged by LW jams. A post-floodsurvey was carried out in November 2011 and February 2012 along four of the tributaries most severely affected by this event. The total length of surveyed channels is 9.5 km. These channels were divided into reaches of similar morphological characteristics (slope, width, vegetation cover), and in every reach the volume of LW deposited was estimated by a combination of field surveys and interpretation of aerial photos. In addition, LW recruited from hillslopes and floodplains was estimated by comparing pre and post-event orthophotos. Preliminary results show very high rates of LW recruitment (1127 m3km-1 on average ranging from 569-2001 m3km-1) along the analysed channels, the majority (about 80%) stemming from floodplain erosion and the rest from the colluvial processes (predominantly landslides). Channels width has increased on average 10 times (ranging from 4 to 23 times). Despite the large variability among the channels, LW dynamics seems to be related to reach characteristics. In fact, LW deposition was higher - and LW recruitment was smaller - in the wider reaches, and the presence of newly-formed islands or even of single standing trees was key in increasing the trapping efficiency of a reach. Also, the steeper the channel, the lesser is LW deposition and the larger is LW supply. Finally both LW recruitment and deposition show a positive relation with drainage area (for basins > 10 km2). These observations suggest a conceptual model for LW dynamics in mountain rivers different from others recently put forward that have analysed LW storage data alone, at few snapshots in time long after the occurrence of extreme events like the one described here. The lessons learned from this event may be useful for a management of mountain catchments which should explicitly take into account the crucial role of LW during extreme events, especially for its interaction with infrastructures.

A Black Swan and Sub-continental Scale Dynamics in Humid, Late-Holocene Broadleaf Forests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pederson, N.; Dyer, J.; McEwan, R.; Hessl, A. E.; Mock, C. J.; Orwig, D.; Rieder, H. E.; Cook, B. I.

2012-12-01

In humid regions with dense broadleaf-dominated forests where gap-dynamics is the prevailing disturbance regime, paleoecological evidence shows regional-scale changes in forest composition associated with climatic change. To investigate the potential for regional events in late-Holocene forests, we use tree-ring data from 76 populations covering 840,000 km2 and 5.3k tree recruitment dates spanning 1.4 million km2 in the eastern US to investigate the occurrence of simultaneous forest dynamics across a humid region. We compare regional forest dynamics with an independent set of annually-resolved tree ring record of hydroclimate to examine whether climate dynamics might drive forest dynamics in this humid region. In forests where light availability is an important limitation for tree recruitment, we document a pulse of tree recruitment during the mid- to late-1600s across the eastern US. This pulse, which can be inferred as large-scale canopy opening, occurred during an era that multiple proxies indicate as extended drought between two intense pluvial. Principal component analysis of the 76 populations indicates a step-change increase in average ring width during the late-1770s resembling a potential canopy accession event over 42,800 km2 of the southeastern US. Growth-release analysis of populations loading strongly on this eigenvector indicates severe canopy disturbance from 1775-1779 that peaked in 1776. The 1776 event follows a period with extended droughts and severe large-scale frost event. We hypothesize these climatic events lead to elevated tree mortality in the late-1770s and canopy accession for understory trees. Superposed epoch analysis reveals that spikes of elevated canopy disturbance from 1685-1850 CE are significantly associated with drought. Extreme value theory statistics indicates the 1776 event lies beyond the 99.9 quantile and nearly 7 sigmas above the 1685-1850 mean rate of disturbance. The time-series of canopy disturbance from 1685-1850 is so poorly described by a Gaussian distribution that it can be considered 'heavy tailed'. Preliminary results show that disturbance events that affect >3-5% of the trees in our dataset occur approximately every 200 years. The most extreme rates (>5%) occur approximately every 500-1000 years. These statistics indicate that the 1775-1779 heavy-tail event can also be considered a 'Black Swan', the rare event that has the potential to alter a system's trajectory further than common events. Our results challenge traditional views regarding characteristic disturbance regime in humid temperate forests, and speak to the importance of punctuated climatic events in shaping forest structure for centuries. Such an understanding is critical given the potential of more frequent extreme climatic events in the future.

Time-varying Concurrent Risk of Extreme Droughts and Heatwaves in California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sarhadi, A.; Diffenbaugh, N. S.; Ausin, M. C.

2016-12-01

Anthropogenic global warming has changed the nature and the risk of extreme climate phenomena such as droughts and heatwaves. The concurrent of these nature-changing climatic extremes may result in intensifying undesirable consequences in terms of human health and destructive effects in water resources. The present study assesses the risk of concurrent extreme droughts and heatwaves under dynamic nonstationary conditions arising from climate change in California. For doing so, a generalized fully Bayesian time-varying multivariate risk framework is proposed evolving through time under dynamic human-induced environment. In this methodology, an extreme, Bayesian, dynamic copula (Gumbel) is developed to model the time-varying dependence structure between the two different climate extremes. The time-varying extreme marginals are previously modeled using a Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution. Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) inference is integrated to estimate parameters of the nonstationary marginals and copula using a Gibbs sampling method. Modelled marginals and copula are then used to develop a fully Bayesian, time-varying joint return period concept for the estimation of concurrent risk. Here we argue that climate change has increased the chance of concurrent droughts and heatwaves over decades in California. It is also demonstrated that a time-varying multivariate perspective should be incorporated to assess realistic concurrent risk of the extremes for water resources planning and management in a changing climate in this area. The proposed generalized methodology can be applied for other stochastic nature-changing compound climate extremes that are under the influence of climate change.

Heating-insensitive scale increase caused by convective precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haerter, Jan; Moseley, Christopher; Berg, Peter

2017-04-01

The origin of intense convective extremes and their unusual temperature dependence has recently challenged traditional thermodynamic arguments, based on the Clausius-Clapeyron relation. In a sequence of studies (Lenderink and v. Mejgaard, Nat Geosc, 2008; Berg, Haerter, Moseley, Nat Geosc, 2013; and Moseley, Hohenegger, Berg, Haerter, Nat Geosc, 2016) the argument of convective-type precipitation overcoming the 7%/K increase in extremes by dynamical, rather than thermodynamic, processes has been promoted. How can the role of dynamical processes be approached for precipitating convective cloud? One-phase, non-precipitating Rayleigh-Bénard convection is a classical problem in complex systems science. When a fluid between two horizontal plates is sufficiently heated from below, convective rolls spontaneously form. In shallow, non-precipitating atmospheric convection, rolls are also known to form under specific conditions, with horizontal scales roughly proportional to the boundary layer height. Here we explore within idealized large-eddy simulations, how the scale of convection is modified, when precipitation sets in and intensifies in the course of diurnal solar heating. Before onset of precipitation, Bénard cells with relatively constant diameter form, roughly on the scale of the atmospheric boundary layer. We find that the onset of precipitation then signals an approximately linear (in time) increase in horizontal scale. This scale increase progresses at a speed which is rather insensitive to changes in surface temperature or changes in the rate at which boundary conditions change, hinting at spatial characteristics, rather than temperature, as a possible control on spatial scales of convection. When exploring the depth of spatial correlations, we find that precipitation onset causes a sudden disruption of order and a subsequent complete disintegration of organization —until precipitation eventually ceases. Returning to the initial question of convective extremes, we conclude that the formation of extreme events is a highly nonlinear process. However, our results suggest that crucial features of convective organization throughout the day may be independent of temperature - with possible implications for large-scale model parameterizations. Yet, the timing of the onset of initial precipitation depends strongly on the temperature boundary conditions, where higher temperatures, or earlier, moderate heating, lead to earlier initiation of convection and hence allow for more time for development and the production of extremes.

A parallel metaheuristic for large mixed-integer dynamic optimization problems, with applications in computational biology

PubMed Central

Henriques, David; González, Patricia; Doallo, Ramón; Saez-Rodriguez, Julio; Banga, Julio R.

2017-01-01

Background We consider a general class of global optimization problems dealing with nonlinear dynamic models. Although this class is relevant to many areas of science and engineering, here we are interested in applying this framework to the reverse engineering problem in computational systems biology, which yields very large mixed-integer dynamic optimization (MIDO) problems. In particular, we consider the framework of logic-based ordinary differential equations (ODEs). Methods We present saCeSS2, a parallel method for the solution of this class of problems. This method is based on an parallel cooperative scatter search metaheuristic, with new mechanisms of self-adaptation and specific extensions to handle large mixed-integer problems. We have paid special attention to the avoidance of convergence stagnation using adaptive cooperation strategies tailored to this class of problems. Results We illustrate its performance with a set of three very challenging case studies from the domain of dynamic modelling of cell signaling. The simpler case study considers a synthetic signaling pathway and has 84 continuous and 34 binary decision variables. A second case study considers the dynamic modeling of signaling in liver cancer using high-throughput data, and has 135 continuous and 109 binaries decision variables. The third case study is an extremely difficult problem related with breast cancer, involving 690 continuous and 138 binary decision variables. We report computational results obtained in different infrastructures, including a local cluster, a large supercomputer and a public cloud platform. Interestingly, the results show how the cooperation of individual parallel searches modifies the systemic properties of the sequential algorithm, achieving superlinear speedups compared to an individual search (e.g. speedups of 15 with 10 cores), and significantly improving (above a 60%) the performance with respect to a non-cooperative parallel scheme. The scalability of the method is also good (tests were performed using up to 300 cores). Conclusions These results demonstrate that saCeSS2 can be used to successfully reverse engineer large dynamic models of complex biological pathways. Further, these results open up new possibilities for other MIDO-based large-scale applications in the life sciences such as metabolic engineering, synthetic biology, drug scheduling. PMID:28813442

A parallel metaheuristic for large mixed-integer dynamic optimization problems, with applications in computational biology.

PubMed

Penas, David R; Henriques, David; González, Patricia; Doallo, Ramón; Saez-Rodriguez, Julio; Banga, Julio R

2017-01-01

We consider a general class of global optimization problems dealing with nonlinear dynamic models. Although this class is relevant to many areas of science and engineering, here we are interested in applying this framework to the reverse engineering problem in computational systems biology, which yields very large mixed-integer dynamic optimization (MIDO) problems. In particular, we consider the framework of logic-based ordinary differential equations (ODEs). We present saCeSS2, a parallel method for the solution of this class of problems. This method is based on an parallel cooperative scatter search metaheuristic, with new mechanisms of self-adaptation and specific extensions to handle large mixed-integer problems. We have paid special attention to the avoidance of convergence stagnation using adaptive cooperation strategies tailored to this class of problems. We illustrate its performance with a set of three very challenging case studies from the domain of dynamic modelling of cell signaling. The simpler case study considers a synthetic signaling pathway and has 84 continuous and 34 binary decision variables. A second case study considers the dynamic modeling of signaling in liver cancer using high-throughput data, and has 135 continuous and 109 binaries decision variables. The third case study is an extremely difficult problem related with breast cancer, involving 690 continuous and 138 binary decision variables. We report computational results obtained in different infrastructures, including a local cluster, a large supercomputer and a public cloud platform. Interestingly, the results show how the cooperation of individual parallel searches modifies the systemic properties of the sequential algorithm, achieving superlinear speedups compared to an individual search (e.g. speedups of 15 with 10 cores), and significantly improving (above a 60%) the performance with respect to a non-cooperative parallel scheme. The scalability of the method is also good (tests were performed using up to 300 cores). These results demonstrate that saCeSS2 can be used to successfully reverse engineer large dynamic models of complex biological pathways. Further, these results open up new possibilities for other MIDO-based large-scale applications in the life sciences such as metabolic engineering, synthetic biology, drug scheduling.

Conformational dynamism for DNA interaction in the Salmonella RcsB response regulator.

PubMed

Casino, Patricia; Miguel-Romero, Laura; Huesa, Juanjo; García, Pablo; García-Del Portillo, Francisco; Marina, Alberto

2018-01-09

The RcsCDB phosphorelay system controls an extremely large regulon in Enterobacteriaceae that involves processes such as biofilm formation, flagella production, synthesis of extracellular capsules and cell division. Therefore, fine-tuning of this system is essential for virulence in pathogenic microorganisms of this group. The final master effector of the RcsCDB system is the response regulator (RR) RcsB, which activates or represses multiple genes by binding to different promoter regions. This regulatory activity of RcsB can be done alone or in combination with additional transcriptional factors in phosphorylated or dephosphorylated states. The capacity of RcsB to interact with multiple promoters and partners, either dephosphorylated or phosphorylated, suggests an extremely conformational dynamism for this RR. To shed light on the activation mechanism of RcsB and its implication on promoter recognition, we solved the crystal structure of full-length RcsB from Salmonella enterica serovar Typhimurium in the presence and absence of a phosphomimetic molecule BeF3-. These two novel structures have guided an extensive site-directed mutagenesis study at the structural and functional level that confirms RcsB conformational plasticity and dynamism. Our data allowed us to propose a β5-T switch mechanism where phosphorylation is coupled to alternative DNA binding ways and which highlights the conformational dynamism of RcsB to be so pleiotropic. © The Author(s) 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Nucleic Acids Research.

Precipitation extremes and their relation to climatic indices in the Pacific Northwest USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zarekarizi, Mahkameh; Rana, Arun; Moradkhani, Hamid

2018-06-01

There has been focus on the influence of climate indices on precipitation extremes in the literature. Current study presents the evaluation of the precipitation-based extremes in Columbia River Basin (CRB) in the Pacific Northwest USA. We first analyzed the precipitation-based extremes using statistically (ten GCMs) and dynamically downscaled (three GCMs) past and future climate projections. Seven precipitation-based indices that help inform about the flood duration/intensity are used. These indices help in attaining first-hand information on spatial and temporal scales for different service sectors including energy, agriculture, forestry etc. Evaluation of these indices is first performed in historical period (1971-2000) followed by analysis of their relation to large scale tele-connections. Further we mapped these indices over the area to evaluate the spatial variation of past and future extremes in downscaled and observational data. The analysis shows that high values of extreme indices are clustered in either western or northern parts of the basin for historical period whereas the northern part is experiencing higher degree of change in the indices for future scenario. The focus is also on evaluating the relation of these extreme indices to climate tele-connections in historical period to understand their relationship with extremes over CRB. Various climate indices are evaluated for their relationship using Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Singular Value Decomposition (SVD). Results indicated that, out of 13 climate tele-connections used in the study, CRB is being most affected inversely by East Pacific (EP), Western Pacific (WP), East Atlantic (EA) and North Atlaentic Oscillation (NAO).

Modeling Hydrological Extremes in the Anthropocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Di Baldassarre, Giuliano; Martinez, Fabian; Kalantari, Zahra; Viglione, Alberto

2017-04-01

Hydrological studies have investigated human impacts on hydrological extremes, i.e. droughts and floods, while social studies have explored human responses and adaptation to them. Yet, there is still little understanding about the dynamics resulting from two-way feedbacks, i.e. both impacts and responses. Traditional risk assessment methods therefore fail to assess future dynamics, and thus risk reduction strategies built on these methods can lead to unintended consequences in the medium-long term. Here we review the dynamics resulting from the reciprocal links between society and hydrological extremes, and describe initial efforts to model floods and droughts in the Anthropocene. In particular, we first discuss the need for a novel approach to explicitly account for human interactions with both hydrological extremes, and then present a stylized model simulating the reciprocal effects between droughts, foods and reservoir operation rules. Unprecedented opportunities offered by the growing availability of global data and worldwide archives to uncover the mutual shaping of hydrological extremes and society across places and scales are also discussed.

Long-term changes in ozone mini-hole event frequency over the Northern Hemisphere derived from ground-based measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krzycin, Janusz W.

2002-10-01

Decadal changes of ozone mini-hole event appearance over the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes are examined based on daily total ozone data from seven stations having long records (four decades or more) of ozone observations. The various threshold methods for accepting and rejecting the ozone minima as mini-holes are examined. Mini-hole event activity is seen to be rather stable when averaged over a decadal time scale if the mini-holes are selected as large negative departures (exceeding 20%) relative to the moving long-term total ozone reference. The results are compared with a previous ozone mini-hole climatology derived from satellite data (TOMS measurements on board the Nimbus-7 satellite for the period 1978-93). A nonlinear statistical model (MARS), which takes into account various total ozone dynamical proxies (from NCEP-NCAR reanalysis), is used to study dynamical factors responsible for the ozone extremes over Arosa in the period 1950-99. The model explains as much as 95% of the total variance of the ozone extremes. The model-observation differences averaged over the decadal intervals are rather smooth throughout the whole period analysed. It is suggested that the short-term dynamical processes controlling the appearance of ozone extremes influenced the ozone field in a similar way before and after the onset of abrupt ozone depletion in the early 1980s. The analysis of the ozone profile and the tropopause pressure (from the ozonesondings over Hohenpeissenberg, 1966-99) during mini-hole events shows 60% ozone reduction in the lower stratosphere and an approximately 50 hPa upward shift of the thermal tropopause there.

Linking crop yield anomalies to large-scale atmospheric circulation in Europe.

PubMed

Ceglar, Andrej; Turco, Marco; Toreti, Andrea; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco J

2017-06-15

Understanding the effects of climate variability and extremes on crop growth and development represents a necessary step to assess the resilience of agricultural systems to changing climate conditions. This study investigates the links between the large-scale atmospheric circulation and crop yields in Europe, providing the basis to develop seasonal crop yield forecasting and thus enabling a more effective and dynamic adaptation to climate variability and change. Four dominant modes of large-scale atmospheric variability have been used: North Atlantic Oscillation, Eastern Atlantic, Scandinavian and Eastern Atlantic-Western Russia patterns. Large-scale atmospheric circulation explains on average 43% of inter-annual winter wheat yield variability, ranging between 20% and 70% across countries. As for grain maize, the average explained variability is 38%, ranging between 20% and 58%. Spatially, the skill of the developed statistical models strongly depends on the large-scale atmospheric variability impact on weather at the regional level, especially during the most sensitive growth stages of flowering and grain filling. Our results also suggest that preceding atmospheric conditions might provide an important source of predictability especially for maize yields in south-eastern Europe. Since the seasonal predictability of large-scale atmospheric patterns is generally higher than the one of surface weather variables (e.g. precipitation) in Europe, seasonal crop yield prediction could benefit from the integration of derived statistical models exploiting the dynamical seasonal forecast of large-scale atmospheric circulation.

Predictors of Drought Recovery across Forest Ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anderegg, W.

2016-12-01

The impacts of climate extremes on terrestrial ecosystems are poorly understood but central for predicting carbon cycle feedbacks to climate change. Coupled climate-carbon cycle models typically assume that vegetation recovery from extreme drought is immediate and complete, which conflicts with basic plant physiological understanding. Here, we discuss what we have learned about forest ecosystem recovery from extreme drought across spatial and temporal scales, drawing on inference from tree rings, eddy covariance data, large scale gross primary productivity products, and ecosystem models. In tree rings, we find pervasive and substantial "legacy effects" of reduced growth and incomplete recovery for 1-4 years after severe drought, and that legacy effects are most prevalent in dry ecosystems, Pinaceae, and species with low hydraulic safety margins. At larger scales, we see relatively rapid recovery of ecosystem fluxes, with strong influences of ecosystem productivity and diversity and longer recovery periods in high latidue forests. In contrast, no or limited legacy effects are simulated in current climate-vegetation models after drought, and we highlight some of the key missing mechanisms in dynamic vegetation models. Our results reveal hysteresis in forest ecosystem carbon cycling and delayed recovery from climate extremes and help advance a predictive understanding of ecosystem recovery.

Variable effects of climate on forest growth in relation to climate extremes, disturbance, and forest dynamics.

PubMed

Itter, Malcolm S; Finley, Andrew O; D'Amato, Anthony W; Foster, Jane R; Bradford, John B

2017-06-01

Changes in the frequency, duration, and severity of climate extremes are forecast to occur under global climate change. The impacts of climate extremes on forest productivity and health remain difficult to predict due to potential interactions with disturbance events and forest dynamics-changes in forest stand composition, density, size and age structure over time. Such interactions may lead to non-linear forest growth responses to climate involving thresholds and lag effects. Understanding how forest dynamics influence growth responses to climate is particularly important given stand structure and composition can be modified through management to increase forest resistance and resilience to climate change. To inform such adaptive management, we develop a hierarchical Bayesian state space model in which climate effects on tree growth are allowed to vary over time and in relation to past climate extremes, disturbance events, and forest dynamics. The model is an important step toward integrating disturbance and forest dynamics into predictions of forest growth responses to climate extremes. We apply the model to a dendrochronology data set from forest stands of varying composition, structure, and development stage in northeastern Minnesota that have experienced extreme climate years and forest tent caterpillar defoliation events. Mean forest growth was most sensitive to water balance variables representing climatic water deficit. Forest growth responses to water deficit were partitioned into responses driven by climatic threshold exceedances and interactions with insect defoliation. Forest growth was both resistant and resilient to climate extremes with the majority of forest growth responses occurring after multiple climatic threshold exceedances across seasons and years. Interactions between climate and disturbance were observed in a subset of years with insect defoliation increasing forest growth sensitivity to water availability. Forest growth was particularly sensitive to climate extremes during periods of high stem density following major regeneration events when average inter-tree competition was high. Results suggest the resistance and resilience of forest growth to climate extremes can be increased through management steps such as thinning to reduce competition during early stages of stand development and small-group selection harvests to maintain forest structures characteristic of older, mature stands. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

Nanomaterials under extreme environments: A study of structural and dynamic properties using reactive molecular dynamics simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shekhar, Adarsh

Nanotechnology is becoming increasingly important with the continuing advances in experimental techniques. As researchers around the world are trying to expand the current understanding of the behavior of materials at the atomistic scale, the limited resolution of equipment, both in terms of time and space, act as roadblocks to a comprehensive study. Numerical methods, in general and molecular dynamics, in particular act as able compliment to the experiments in our quest for understanding material behavior. In this research work, large scale molecular dynamics simulations to gain insight into the mechano-chemical behavior under extreme conditions of a variety of systems with many real world applications. The body of this work is divided into three parts, each covering a particular system: 1) Aggregates of aluminum nanoparticles are good solid fuel due to high flame propagation rates. Multi-million atom molecular dynamics simulations reveal the mechanism underlying higher reaction rate in a chain of aluminum nanoparticles as compared to an isolated nanoparticle. This is due to the penetration of hot atoms from reacting nanoparticles to an adjacent, unreacted nanoparticle, which brings in external heat and initiates exothermic oxidation reactions. 2) Cavitation bubbles readily occur in fluids subjected to rapid changes in pressure. We use billion-atom reactive molecular dynamics simulations on a 163,840-processor BlueGene/P supercomputer to investigate chemical and mechanical damages caused by shock-induced collapse of nanobubbles in water near amorphous silica. Collapse of an empty nanobubble generates high-speed nanojet, resulting in the formation of a pit on the surface. The pit contains a large number of silanol groups and its volume is found to be directly proportional to the volume of the nanobubble. The gas-filled bubbles undergo partial collapse and consequently the damage on the silica surface is mitigated. 3) The structure and dynamics of water confined in nanoporous silica are different from that of bulk water, and insight into the properties of confined water is important for our understanding of many geological and biological processes. Nanoporous silica has a wide range of technological applications because it is easy to tune the size of pores and their morphologies and to functionalize pore surfaces with a variety of molecular moieties. Nanoporous silica is used in catalysis, chromatography, anticorrosion coatings, desalination membranes, and as drug delivery vehicles. We use reactive molecular dynamics to study the structure and dynamics of nanoconfined water between 100 and 300 K

Generic dynamical phase transition in one-dimensional bulk-driven lattice gases with exclusion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lazarescu, Alexandre

2017-06-01

Dynamical phase transitions are crucial features of the fluctuations of statistical systems, corresponding to boundaries between qualitatively different mechanisms of maintaining unlikely values of dynamical observables over long periods of time. They manifest themselves in the form of non-analyticities in the large deviation function of those observables. In this paper, we look at bulk-driven exclusion processes with open boundaries. It is known that the standard asymmetric simple exclusion process exhibits a dynamical phase transition in the large deviations of the current of particles flowing through it. That phase transition has been described thanks to specific calculation methods relying on the model being exactly solvable, but more general methods have also been used to describe the extreme large deviations of that current, far from the phase transition. We extend those methods to a large class of models based on the ASEP, where we add arbitrary spatial inhomogeneities in the rates and short-range potentials between the particles. We show that, as for the regular ASEP, the large deviation function of the current scales differently with the size of the system if one considers very high or very low currents, pointing to the existence of a dynamical phase transition between those two regimes: high current large deviations are extensive in the system size, and the typical states associated to them are Coulomb gases, which are highly correlated; low current large deviations do not depend on the system size, and the typical states associated to them are anti-shocks, consistently with a hydrodynamic behaviour. Finally, we illustrate our results numerically on a simple example, and we interpret the transition in terms of the current pushing beyond its maximal hydrodynamic value, as well as relate it to the appearance of Tracy-Widom distributions in the relaxation statistics of such models. , which features invited work from the best early-career researchers working within the scope of J. Phys. A. This project is part of the Journal of Physics series’ 50th anniversary celebrations in 2017. Alexandre Lazarescu was selected by the Editorial Board of J. Phys. A as an Emerging Talent.

Dynamic stability and handling qualities tests on a highly augmented, statically unstable airplane

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gera, Joseph; Bosworth, John T.

1987-01-01

Initial envelope clearance and subsequent flight testing of a new, fully augmented airplane with an extremely high degree of static instability can place unusual demands on the flight test approach. Previous flight test experience with these kinds of airplanes is very limited or nonexistent. The safe and efficient flight testing may be further complicated by a multiplicity of control effectors that may be present on this class of airplanes. This paper describes some novel flight test and analysis techniques in the flight dynamics and handling qualities area. These techniques were utilized during the initial flight envelope clearance of the X-29A aircraft and were largely responsible for the completion of the flight controls clearance program without any incidents or significant delays.

Dynamics of supernova remnants in the Galactic centre.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bortolas, E.; Mapelli, M.; Spera, M.

The Galactic centre (GC) is a unique place to study the extreme dynamical processes occurring near a super-massive black hole (SMBH). Here we simulate a large set of binaries orbiting the SMBH while the primary member undergoes a supernova (SN) explosion, in order to study the impact of SN kicks on the orbits of stars and dark remnants in the GC. We find that SN explosions are efficient in scattering neutron stars and other light stars on new (mostly eccentric) orbits, while black holes (BHs) tend to retain memory of the orbit of their progenitor star. SN kicks are thus unable to eject BHs from the GC: a cusp of dark remnants may be lurking in the central parsec of our Galaxy.

Resonant Thermalization of Periodically Driven Strongly Correlated Electrons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peronaci, Francesco; Schiró, Marco; Parcollet, Olivier

2018-05-01

We study the dynamics of the Fermi-Hubbard model driven by a time-periodic modulation of the interaction within nonequilibrium dynamical mean-field theory. For moderate interaction, we find clear evidence of thermalization to a genuine infinite-temperature state with no residual oscillations. Quite differently, in the strongly correlated regime, we find a quasistationary extremely long-lived state with oscillations synchronized with the drive (Floquet prethermalization). Remarkably, the nature of this state dramatically changes upon tuning the drive frequency. In particular, we show the existence of a critical frequency at which the system rapidly thermalizes despite the large interaction. We characterize this resonant thermalization and provide an analytical understanding in terms of a breakdown of the periodic Schrieffer-Wolff transformation.

Use of dynamical downscaling to improve the simulation of Central U.S. warm season precipitation in CMIP5 models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harding, Keith J.; Snyder, Peter K.; Liess, Stefan

2013-11-01

supporting exceptionally productive agricultural lands, the Central U.S. is susceptible to severe droughts and floods. Such precipitation extremes are expected to worsen with climate change. However, future projections are highly uncertain as global climate models (GCMs) generally fail to resolve precipitation extremes. In this study, we assess how well models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulate summer means, variability, extremes, and the diurnal cycle of Central U.S. summer rainfall. Output from a subset of historical CMIP5 simulations are used to drive the Weather Research and Forecasting model to determine whether dynamical downscaling improves the representation of Central U.S. rainfall. We investigate which boundary conditions influence dynamically downscaled precipitation estimates and identify GCMs that can reasonably simulate precipitation when downscaled. The CMIP5 models simulate the seasonal mean and variability of summer rainfall reasonably well but fail to resolve extremes, the diurnal cycle, and the dynamic forcing of precipitation. Downscaling to 30 km improves these characteristics of precipitation, with the greatest improvement in the representation of extremes. Additionally, sizeable diurnal cycle improvements occur with higher (10 km) resolution and convective parameterization disabled, as the daily rainfall peak shifts 4 h closer to observations than 30 km resolution simulations. This lends greater confidence that the mechanisms responsible for producing rainfall are better simulated. Because dynamical downscaling can more accurately simulate these aspects of Central U.S. summer rainfall, policymakers can have added confidence in dynamically downscaled rainfall projections, allowing for more targeted adaptation and mitigation.

Independent evolution of baleen whale gigantism linked to Plio-Pleistocene ocean dynamics

PubMed Central

Goldbogen, Jeremy A.

2017-01-01

Vertebrates have evolved to gigantic sizes repeatedly over the past 250 Myr, reaching their extreme in today's baleen whales (Mysticeti). Hypotheses for the evolution of exceptionally large size in mysticetes range from niche partitioning to predator avoidance, but there has been no quantitative examination of body size evolutionary dynamics in this clade and it remains unclear when, why or how gigantism evolved. By fitting phylogenetic macroevolutionary models to a dataset consisting of living and extinct species, we show that mysticetes underwent a clade-wide shift in their mode of body size evolution during the Plio-Pleistocene. This transition, from Brownian motion-like dynamics to a trended random walk towards larger size, is temporally linked to the onset of seasonally intensified upwelling along coastal ecosystems. High prey densities resulting from wind-driven upwelling, rather than abundant resources alone, are the primary determinant of efficient foraging in extant mysticetes and Late Pliocene changes in ocean dynamics may have provided an ecological pathway to gigantism in multiple independent lineages. PMID:28539520

Phase correlation imaging of unlabeled cell dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, Lihong; Rajshekhar, Gannavarpu; Wang, Ru; Bhaduri, Basanta; Sridharan, Shamira; Mir, Mustafa; Chakraborty, Arindam; Iyer, Rajashekar; Prasanth, Supriya; Millet, Larry; Gillette, Martha U.; Popescu, Gabriel

2016-09-01

We present phase correlation imaging (PCI) as a novel approach to study cell dynamics in a spatially-resolved manner. PCI relies on quantitative phase imaging time-lapse data and, as such, functions in label-free mode, without the limitations associated with exogenous markers. The correlation time map outputted in PCI informs on the dynamics of the intracellular mass transport. Specifically, we show that PCI can extract quantitatively the diffusion coefficient map associated with live cells, as well as standard Brownian particles. Due to its high sensitivity to mass transport, PCI can be applied to studying the integrity of actin polymerization dynamics. Our results indicate that the cyto-D treatment blocking the actin polymerization has a dominant effect at the large spatial scales, in the region surrounding the cell. We found that PCI can distinguish between senescent and quiescent cells, which is extremely difficult without using specific markers currently. We anticipate that PCI will be used alongside established, fluorescence-based techniques to enable valuable new studies of cell function.

Independent evolution of baleen whale gigantism linked to Plio-Pleistocene ocean dynamics.

PubMed

Slater, Graham J; Goldbogen, Jeremy A; Pyenson, Nicholas D

2017-05-31

Vertebrates have evolved to gigantic sizes repeatedly over the past 250 Myr, reaching their extreme in today's baleen whales (Mysticeti). Hypotheses for the evolution of exceptionally large size in mysticetes range from niche partitioning to predator avoidance, but there has been no quantitative examination of body size evolutionary dynamics in this clade and it remains unclear when, why or how gigantism evolved. By fitting phylogenetic macroevolutionary models to a dataset consisting of living and extinct species, we show that mysticetes underwent a clade-wide shift in their mode of body size evolution during the Plio-Pleistocene. This transition, from Brownian motion-like dynamics to a trended random walk towards larger size, is temporally linked to the onset of seasonally intensified upwelling along coastal ecosystems. High prey densities resulting from wind-driven upwelling, rather than abundant resources alone, are the primary determinant of efficient foraging in extant mysticetes and Late Pliocene changes in ocean dynamics may have provided an ecological pathway to gigantism in multiple independent lineages. © 2017 The Author(s).

Milgrom's revision of Newton's laws - Dynamical and cosmological consequences

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Felten, J. E.

1984-01-01

Milgrom's (1983) recent revision of Newtonian dynamics was introduced to eliminate the inference that large quantities of invisible mass exist in galaxies. It is shown by simple examples that a Milgrom acceleration, in the form presented so far, implies other far-reaching changes in dynamics. The momentum of an isolated system is not conserved, and the usual theorem for center-of-mass motion of any system does not hold. Naive applications require extreme caution. The model fails to provide a complete description of particle dynamics and should be thought of as a revision of Kepler's laws rather than Newton's. The Milgrom acceleration also implies fundamental changes in cosmology. A quasi-Newtonian calculation adapted from Newtonian cosmology suggests that a 'Milgrom universe' will recollapse even if the classical closure parameter Omega is much less than unity. The solution, however, fails to satisfy the cosmological principle. Reasons for the breakdown of this calculation are examined. A new theory of gravitation will be needed before the behavior of a Milgrom universe can be predicted.

Milgrom's revision of cosmic dynamics: Amending Newton's laws or Keplers?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Felten, J. E.

1983-01-01

Milgrom's recent revision of Newtonian dynamics was introduced to eliminate the inference that large quantities of invisible mass exist in galaxies. Simple examples show that a Milgrom acceleration, in the form presented so far, imply other far-reaching changes in dynamics. The momentum of an isolated system is not conserved, and the usual theorem for center-of-mass motion of any system does not hold. Naive applications require extreme caution. The model fails to provide a complete description of particle dynamics and should be thought of as a revision of Kepler's laws rather than Newton's. The Milgrom acceleration also implies fundamental changes in cosmology. A quasi-Newtonian calculation adapted from Newtonian cosmology suggests that a Milgrom universe will recollapse even if the classical closure parameter theta is less than 1. The solution, however, fails to satisfy the cosmological principle. Reasons for the breakdown of this calculation are examined. A theory of gravitation needed before the behavior of a Milgrom universe can be predicted.

Noise-induced polarization switching in complex networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haerter, Jan O.; Díaz-Guilera, Albert; Serrano, M. Ángeles

2017-04-01

The combination of bistability and noise is ubiquitous in complex systems, from biology to social interactions, and has important implications for their functioning and resilience. Here we use a simple three-state dynamical process, in which nodes go from one pole to another through an intermediate state, to show that noise can induce polarization switching in bistable systems if dynamical correlations are significant. In large, fully connected networks, where dynamical correlations can be neglected, increasing noise yields a collapse of bistability to an unpolarized configuration where the three possible states of the nodes are equally likely. In contrast, increased noise induces abrupt and irreversible polarization switching in sparsely connected networks. In multiplexes, where each layer can have a different polarization tendency, one layer is dominant and progressively imposes its polarization state on the other, offsetting or promoting the ability of noise to switch its polarization. Overall, we show that the interplay of noise and dynamical correlations can yield discontinuous transitions between extremes, which cannot be explained by a simple mean-field description.

Cluster analysis of accelerated molecular dynamics simulations: A case study of the decahedron to icosahedron transition in Pt nanoparticles.

PubMed

Huang, Rao; Lo, Li-Ta; Wen, Yuhua; Voter, Arthur F; Perez, Danny

2017-10-21

Modern molecular-dynamics-based techniques are extremely powerful to investigate the dynamical evolution of materials. With the increase in sophistication of the simulation techniques and the ubiquity of massively parallel computing platforms, atomistic simulations now generate very large amounts of data, which have to be carefully analyzed in order to reveal key features of the underlying trajectories, including the nature and characteristics of the relevant reaction pathways. We show that clustering algorithms, such as the Perron Cluster Cluster Analysis, can provide reduced representations that greatly facilitate the interpretation of complex trajectories. To illustrate this point, clustering tools are used to identify the key kinetic steps in complex accelerated molecular dynamics trajectories exhibiting shape fluctuations in Pt nanoclusters. This analysis provides an easily interpretable coarse representation of the reaction pathways in terms of a handful of clusters, in contrast to the raw trajectory that contains thousands of unique states and tens of thousands of transitions.

Cluster analysis of accelerated molecular dynamics simulations: A case study of the decahedron to icosahedron transition in Pt nanoparticles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Rao; Lo, Li-Ta; Wen, Yuhua; Voter, Arthur F.; Perez, Danny

2017-10-01

Modern molecular-dynamics-based techniques are extremely powerful to investigate the dynamical evolution of materials. With the increase in sophistication of the simulation techniques and the ubiquity of massively parallel computing platforms, atomistic simulations now generate very large amounts of data, which have to be carefully analyzed in order to reveal key features of the underlying trajectories, including the nature and characteristics of the relevant reaction pathways. We show that clustering algorithms, such as the Perron Cluster Cluster Analysis, can provide reduced representations that greatly facilitate the interpretation of complex trajectories. To illustrate this point, clustering tools are used to identify the key kinetic steps in complex accelerated molecular dynamics trajectories exhibiting shape fluctuations in Pt nanoclusters. This analysis provides an easily interpretable coarse representation of the reaction pathways in terms of a handful of clusters, in contrast to the raw trajectory that contains thousands of unique states and tens of thousands of transitions.

Early Experiences Porting the NAMD and VMD Molecular Simulation and Analysis Software to GPU-Accelerated OpenPOWER Platforms

PubMed Central

Stone, John E.; Hynninen, Antti-Pekka; Phillips, James C.; Schulten, Klaus

2017-01-01

All-atom molecular dynamics simulations of biomolecules provide a powerful tool for exploring the structure and dynamics of large protein complexes within realistic cellular environments. Unfortunately, such simulations are extremely demanding in terms of their computational requirements, and they present many challenges in terms of preparation, simulation methodology, and analysis and visualization of results. We describe our early experiences porting the popular molecular dynamics simulation program NAMD and the simulation preparation, analysis, and visualization tool VMD to GPU-accelerated OpenPOWER hardware platforms. We report our experiences with compiler-provided autovectorization and compare with hand-coded vector intrinsics for the POWER8 CPU. We explore the performance benefits obtained from unique POWER8 architectural features such as 8-way SMT and its value for particular molecular modeling tasks. Finally, we evaluate the performance of several GPU-accelerated molecular modeling kernels and relate them to other hardware platforms. PMID:29202130

Can MOND type hypotheses be tested in a free fall laboratory environment?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Das, Saurya; Patitsas, S. N.

2013-05-01

The extremely small accelerations of objects required for the onset of modified Newtonian dynamics, or modified Newtonian dynamics (MOND), makes testing the hypothesis in conventional terrestrial laboratories virtually impossible. This is due to the large background acceleration of Earth, which is transmitted to the acceleration of test objects within an apparatus. We show, however, that it may be possible to test MOND-type hypotheses with experiments using a conventional apparatus capable of tracking very small accelerations of its components but performed in locally inertial frames such as artificial satellites and other freely falling laboratories. For example, experiments involving an optical interferometer or a torsion balance in these laboratories would show nonlinear dynamics and displacement amplitudes larger than expected. These experiments may also be able to test potential violations of the strong equivalence principle by MOND and to distinguish between its two possible interpretations (modified inertia and modified gravity).

ESTEEM: A Novel Framework for Qualitatively Evaluating and Visualizing Spatiotemporal Embeddings in Social Media

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Arendt, Dustin L.; Volkova, Svitlana

Analyzing and visualizing large amounts of social media communications and contrasting short-term conversation changes over time and geo-locations is extremely important for commercial and government applications. Earlier approaches for large-scale text stream summarization used dynamic topic models and trending words. Instead, we rely on text embeddings – low-dimensional word representations in a continuous vector space where similar words are embedded nearby each other. This paper presents ESTEEM,1 a novel tool for visualizing and evaluating spatiotemporal embeddings learned from streaming social media texts. Our tool allows users to monitor and analyze query words and their closest neighbors with an interactive interface.more » We used state-of- the-art techniques to learn embeddings and developed a visualization to represent dynamically changing relations between words in social media over time and other dimensions. This is the first interactive visualization of streaming text representations learned from social media texts that also allows users to contrast differences across multiple dimensions of the data.« less

Traffic sharing algorithms for hybrid mobile networks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Arcand, S.; Murthy, K. M. S.; Hafez, R.

1995-01-01

In a hybrid (terrestrial + satellite) mobile personal communications networks environment, a large size satellite footprint (supercell) overlays on a large number of smaller size, contiguous terrestrial cells. We assume that the users have either a terrestrial only single mode terminal (SMT) or a terrestrial/satellite dual mode terminal (DMT) and the ratio of DMT to the total terminals is defined gamma. It is assumed that the call assignments to and handovers between terrestrial cells and satellite supercells take place in a dynamic fashion when necessary. The objectives of this paper are twofold, (1) to propose and define a class of traffic sharing algorithms to manage terrestrial and satellite network resources efficiently by handling call handovers dynamically, and (2) to analyze and evaluate the algorithms by maximizing the traffic load handling capability (defined in erl/cell) over a wide range of terminal ratios (gamma) given an acceptable range of blocking probabilities. Two of the algorithms (G & S) in the proposed class perform extremely well for a wide range of gamma.

Extreme wave formation in unidirectional sea due to stochastic wave phase dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Rui; Balachandran, Balakumar

2018-07-01

The authors consider a stochastic model based on the interaction and phase coupling amongst wave components that are modified envelope soliton solutions to the nonlinear Schrödinger equation. A probabilistic study is carried out and the resulting findings are compared with ocean wave field observations and laboratory experimental results. The wave height probability distribution obtained from the model is found to match well with prior data in the large wave height region. From the eigenvalue spectrum obtained through the Inverse Scattering Transform, it is revealed that the deep-water wave groups move at a speed different from the linear group speed, which justifies the inclusion of phase correction to the envelope solitary wave components. It is determined that phase synchronization amongst elementary solitary wave components can be critical for the formation of extreme waves in unidirectional sea states.

Extreme value laws for fractal intensity functions in dynamical systems: Minkowski analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mantica, Giorgio; Perotti, Luca

2016-09-01

Typically, in the dynamical theory of extremal events, the function that gauges the intensity of a phenomenon is assumed to be convex and maximal, or singular, at a single, or at most a finite collection of points in phase-space. In this paper we generalize this situation to fractal landscapes, i.e. intensity functions characterized by an uncountable set of singularities, located on a Cantor set. This reveals the dynamical rôle of classical quantities like the Minkowski dimension and content, whose definition we extend to account for singular continuous invariant measures. We also introduce the concept of extremely rare event, quantified by non-standard Minkowski constants and we study its consequences to extreme value statistics. Limit laws are derived from formal calculations and are verified by numerical experiments. Dedicated to the memory of Joseph Ford, on the twentieth anniversary of his departure.

Fast-track extreme event attribution: How fast can we disentangle thermodynamic (forced) and dynamic (internal) contributions?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haustein, Karsten; Otto, Friederike; Uhe, Peter; Allen, Myles; Cullen, Heidi

2016-04-01

Within the last decade, extreme weather event attribution has emerged as a new field of science and garnered increasing attention from the wider scientific community and the public. Numerous methods have been put forward to determine the contribution of anthropogenic climate change to individual extreme weather events. So far nearly all such analyses were done months after an event has happened. First, we present our newly established method which can assess the fraction of attributable risk (FAR) of a severe weather event due to an external driver in real-time. The method builds on a large ensemble of atmosphere-only GCM/RCM simulations forced by seasonal forecast sea surface temperatures (SSTs). Taking the UK 2013/14 winter floods as an example, we demonstrate that the change in risk for heavy rainfall during the England floods due to anthropogenic climate change is of similar magnitude using either observed or seasonal forecast SSTs. While FAR is assumed to be independent from event-specific dynamic contributions due to anomalous circulation patterns as a first approximation, the risk of an event to occur under current conditions is clearly a function of the state of the atmosphere. The shorter the event, the more it is a result of chaotic internal weather variability. Hence we are interested to (1) attribute the event to thermodynamic and dynamic causes and to (2) establish a sensible time-scale for which we can make a useful and potentially robust attribution statement with regard to event-specific dynamics. Having tested the dynamic response of our model to SST conditions in January 2014, we find that observed SSTs are required to establish a discernible link between anomalous ocean temperatures and the atmospheric circulation over the North Atlantic in general and the UK in particular. However, for extreme events occurring under strongly anomalous SST patterns, associated with known low-frequency climate modes such as El Nino or La Nina, forecast SSTs can provide sufficient guidance to determine the dynamic contribution to the event on the basis of monthly mean values. No such link can be made (North Atlantic/Western Europe region) for shorter time-scales, unless the observed state of the circulation is taken as reference for the model analysis (e.g. Christidis et al. 2014). We present results from our most recent attribution analysis for the December 2015 UK floods (Storm Desmond and Eva), during which we find a robust teleconnection link between Pacific SSTs and North Atlantic Jetstream anomalies. This is true for both experiments, with forecast and observed SSTs. We propose a fast and simple analysis method based on the comparison of current climatological circulation patterns with actual and natural conditions. Alternative methods are discussed and analysed regarding their potential for fast-track attribution of the role of dynamics. Also, we briefly revisit the issue of internal vs forced dynamic contributions.

A Fast and Precise Indoor Localization Algorithm Based on an Online Sequential Extreme Learning Machine †

PubMed Central

Zou, Han; Lu, Xiaoxuan; Jiang, Hao; Xie, Lihua

2015-01-01

Nowadays, developing indoor positioning systems (IPSs) has become an attractive research topic due to the increasing demands on location-based service (LBS) in indoor environments. WiFi technology has been studied and explored to provide indoor positioning service for years in view of the wide deployment and availability of existing WiFi infrastructures in indoor environments. A large body of WiFi-based IPSs adopt fingerprinting approaches for localization. However, these IPSs suffer from two major problems: the intensive costs of manpower and time for offline site survey and the inflexibility to environmental dynamics. In this paper, we propose an indoor localization algorithm based on an online sequential extreme learning machine (OS-ELM) to address the above problems accordingly. The fast learning speed of OS-ELM can reduce the time and manpower costs for the offline site survey. Meanwhile, its online sequential learning ability enables the proposed localization algorithm to adapt in a timely manner to environmental dynamics. Experiments under specific environmental changes, such as variations of occupancy distribution and events of opening or closing of doors, are conducted to evaluate the performance of OS-ELM. The simulation and experimental results show that the proposed localization algorithm can provide higher localization accuracy than traditional approaches, due to its fast adaptation to various environmental dynamics. PMID:25599427

Changing Pattern of Indian Monsoon Extremes: Global and Local Factors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghosh, Subimal; Shastri, Hiteshri; Pathak, Amey; Paul, Supantha

2017-04-01

Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) extremes have remained a major topic of discussion in the field of global change and hydro-climatology over the last decade. This attributes to multiple conclusions on changing pattern of extremes along with poor understanding of multiple processes at global and local scales associated with monsoon extremes. At a spatially aggregate scale, when number of extremes in the grids are summed over, a statistically significant increasing trend is observed for both Central India (Goswami et al., 2006) and all India (Rajeevan et al., 2008). However, such a result over Central India does not satisfy flied significance test of increase and no decrease (Krishnamurthy et al., 2009). Statistically rigorous extreme value analysis that deals with the tail of the distribution reveals a spatially non-uniform trend of extremes over India (Ghosh et al., 2012). This results into statistically significant increasing trend of spatial variability. Such an increase of spatial variability points to the importance of local factors such as deforestation and urbanization. We hypothesize that increase of spatial average of extremes is associated with the increase of events occurring over large region, while increase in spatial variability attributes to local factors. A Lagrangian approach based dynamic recycling model reveals that the major contributor of moisture to wide spread extremes is Western Indian Ocean, while land surface also contributes around 25-30% of moisture during the extremes in Central India. We further test the impacts of local urbanization on extremes and find the impacts are more visible over West central, Southern and North East India. Regional atmospheric simulations coupled with Urban Canopy Model (UCM) shows that urbanization intensifies extremes in city areas, but not uniformly all over the city. The intensification occurs over specific pockets of the urban region, resulting an increase in spatial variability even within the city. This also points to the need of setting up multiple weather stations over the city at a finer resolution for better understanding of urban extremes. We conclude that the conventional method of considering large scale factors is not sufficient for analysing the monsoon extremes and characterization of the same needs a blending of both global and local factors. Ghosh, S., Das, D., Kao, S-C. & Ganguly, A. R. Lack of uniform trends but increasing spatial variability in observed Indian rainfall extremes. Nature Clim. Change 2, 86-91 (2012) Goswami, B. N., Venugopal, V., Sengupta, D., Madhusoodanan, M. S. & Xavier, P. K. Increasing trend of extreme rain events over India in a warming environment. Science 314, 1442-1445 (2006). Krishnamurthy, C. K. B., Lall, U. & Kwon, H-H. Changing frequency and intensity of rainfall extremes over India from 1951 to 2003. J. Clim. 22, 4737-4746 (2009). Rajeevan, M., Bhate, J. & Jaswal, A. K. Analysis of variability and trends of extreme rainfall events over India using 104 years of gridded daily rainfall data. Geophys. Res. Lett. 35, L18707 (2008).

Emergence of scaling in human-interest dynamics.

PubMed

Zhao, Zhi-Dan; Yang, Zimo; Zhang, Zike; Zhou, Tao; Huang, Zi-Gang; Lai, Ying-Cheng

2013-12-11

Human behaviors are often driven by human interests. Despite intense recent efforts in exploring the dynamics of human behaviors, little is known about human-interest dynamics, partly due to the extreme difficulty in accessing the human mind from observations. However, the availability of large-scale data, such as those from e-commerce and smart-phone communications, makes it possible to probe into and quantify the dynamics of human interest. Using three prototypical "Big Data" sets, we investigate the scaling behaviors associated with human-interest dynamics. In particular, from the data sets we uncover fat-tailed (possibly power-law) distributions associated with the three basic quantities: (1) the length of continuous interest, (2) the return time of visiting certain interest, and (3) interest ranking and transition. We argue that there are three basic ingredients underlying human-interest dynamics: preferential return to previously visited interests, inertial effect, and exploration of new interests. We develop a biased random-walk model, incorporating the three ingredients, to account for the observed fat-tailed distributions. Our study represents the first attempt to understand the dynamical processes underlying human interest, which has significant applications in science and engineering, commerce, as well as defense, in terms of specific tasks such as recommendation and human-behavior prediction.

Emergence of scaling in human-interest dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Zhi-Dan; Yang, Zimo; Zhang, Zike; Zhou, Tao; Huang, Zi-Gang; Lai, Ying-Cheng

2013-12-01

Human behaviors are often driven by human interests. Despite intense recent efforts in exploring the dynamics of human behaviors, little is known about human-interest dynamics, partly due to the extreme difficulty in accessing the human mind from observations. However, the availability of large-scale data, such as those from e-commerce and smart-phone communications, makes it possible to probe into and quantify the dynamics of human interest. Using three prototypical ``Big Data'' sets, we investigate the scaling behaviors associated with human-interest dynamics. In particular, from the data sets we uncover fat-tailed (possibly power-law) distributions associated with the three basic quantities: (1) the length of continuous interest, (2) the return time of visiting certain interest, and (3) interest ranking and transition. We argue that there are three basic ingredients underlying human-interest dynamics: preferential return to previously visited interests, inertial effect, and exploration of new interests. We develop a biased random-walk model, incorporating the three ingredients, to account for the observed fat-tailed distributions. Our study represents the first attempt to understand the dynamical processes underlying human interest, which has significant applications in science and engineering, commerce, as well as defense, in terms of specific tasks such as recommendation and human-behavior prediction.

Impacts on Coralligenous Outcrop Biodiversity of a Dramatic Coastal Storm

PubMed Central

Teixidó, Núria; Casas, Edgar; Cebrián, Emma; Linares, Cristina; Garrabou, Joaquim

2013-01-01

Extreme events are rare, stochastic perturbations that can cause abrupt and dramatic ecological change within a short period of time relative to the lifespan of organisms. Studies over time provide exceptional opportunities to detect the effects of extreme climatic events and to measure their impacts by quantifying rates of change at population and community levels. In this study, we show how an extreme storm event affected the dynamics of benthic coralligenous outcrops in the NW Mediterranean Sea using data acquired before (2006–2008) and after the impact (2009–2010) at four different sites. Storms of comparable severity have been documented to occur occasionally within periods of 50 years in the Mediterranean Sea. We assessed the effects derived from the storm comparing changes in benthic community composition at sites exposed to and sheltered from this extreme event. The sites analyzed showed different damage from severe to negligible. The most exposed and impacted site experienced a major shift immediately after the storm, represented by changes in the species richness and beta diversity of benthic species. This site also showed higher compositional variability immediately after the storm and over the following year. The loss of cover of benthic species resulted between 22% and 58%. The damage across these species (e.g. calcareous algae, sponges, anthozoans, bryozoans, tunicates) was uneven, and those with fragile forms were the most impacted, showing cover losses up to 50 to 100%. Interestingly, small patches survived after the storm and began to grow slightly during the following year. In contrast, sheltered sites showed no significant changes in all the studied parameters, indicating no variations due to the storm. This study provides new insights into the responses to large and rare extreme events of Mediterranean communities with low dynamics and long-lived species, which are among the most threatened by the effects of global change. PMID:23326496

Potential role of vegetation dynamics on recent extreme droughts over tropical South America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, G.; Erfanian, A.; Fomenko, L.

2017-12-01

Tropical South America is a drought hot spot. In slightly over a decade (2005-2016), the region encountered three extreme droughts (2005, 2010, and 2016). Recurrent extreme droughts not only impact the region's eco-hydrology and socio-economy, but are also globally important as they can transform the planet's largest rainforest, the Amazon, from a carbon sink to a carbon source. Understanding drought drivers and mechanisms underlying extreme droughts in tropical South America can help better project the fate of the Amazon rainforest in a changing climate. In this study we use a regional climate model (RegCM4.3.4) coupled with a comprehensive land-surface model (CLM4.5) to study the present-day hydroclimate of the region, focusing specifically on what might have caused the frequent recurrence of extreme droughts. In the context of observation natural variability of the global oceanic forcing, we tackle the role of land-atmosphere interactions and ran the model with and without dynamic vegetation to study how vegetation dynamics and carbon-nitrogen cycles may have influenced the drought characteristics. Our results demonstrate skillful simulation of the South American climate in the model, and indicate substantial sensitivity of the region's hydroclimatology to vegetation dynamics. This presentation will compare the role of global oceanic forcing versus regional land surface feedback in the recent recurrent droughts, and will characterize the effects of vegetation dynamics in enhancing the drought severity. Preliminary results on future projections of the regional ecosystem and droughts perspective will be also presented.

Evaluations of high-resolution dynamically downscaled ensembles over the contiguous United States Climate Dynamics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zobel, Zachary; Wang, Jiali; Wuebbles, Donald J.

This study uses Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model to evaluate the performance of six dynamical downscaled decadal historical simulations with 12-km resolution for a large domain (7200 x 6180 km) that covers most of North America. The initial and boundary conditions are from three global climate models (GCMs) and one reanalysis data. The GCMs employed in this study are the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Earth System Model with Generalized Ocean Layer Dynamics component, Community Climate System Model, version 4, and the Hadley Centre Global Environment Model, version 2-Earth System. The reanalysis data is from the National Centers for Environmentalmore » Prediction-US. Department of Energy Reanalysis II. We analyze the effects of bias correcting, the lateral boundary conditions and the effects of spectral nudging. We evaluate the model performance for seven surface variables and four upper atmospheric variables based on their climatology and extremes for seven subregions across the United States. The results indicate that the simulation’s performance depends on both location and the features/variable being tested. We find that the use of bias correction and/or nudging is beneficial in many situations, but employing these when running the RCM is not always an improvement when compared to the reference data. The use of an ensemble mean and median leads to a better performance in measuring the climatology, while it is significantly biased for the extremes, showing much larger differences than individual GCM driven model simulations from the reference data. This study provides a comprehensive evaluation of these historical model runs in order to make informed decisions when making future projections.« less

Tracking Climate Change through the Spatiotemporal Dynamics of the Teletherms, the Statistically Hottest and Coldest Days of the Year

DOE PAGES

Dodds, Peter Sheridan; Mitchell, Lewis; Reagan, Andrew J.; ...

2016-05-11

Instabilities and long term shifts in seasons, whether induced by natural drivers or human activities, pose great disruptive threats to ecological, agricultural, and social systems. Here, we propose, measure, and explore two fundamental markers of location-sensitive seasonal variations: the Summer and Winter Teletherms—the on-average annual dates of the hottest and coldest days of the year. We analyze daily temperature extremes recorded at 1218 stations across the contiguous United States from 1853–2012, and observe large regional variation with the Summer Teletherm falling up to 90 days after the Summer Solstice, and 50 days for the Winter Teletherm after the Winter Solstice.more » We show that Teletherm temporal dynamics are substantive with clear and in some cases dramatic shifts reflective of system bifurcations. We also compare recorded daily temperature extremes with output from two regional climate models finding considerable though relatively unbiased error. In conclusion, our work demonstrates that Teletherms are an intuitive, powerful, and statistically sound measure of local climate change, and that they pose detailed, stringent challenges for future theoretical and computational models.« less

Revisiting Cholera-Climate Teleconnections in the Native Homeland: ENSO and other Extremes through the Regional Hydroclimatic Drivers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akanda, A. S.; Jutla, A.; Huq, A.; Colwell, R. R.

2014-12-01

Cholera is a global disease, with significantly large outbreaks occurring since the 1990s, notably in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia and recently in Haiti, in the Caribbean. Critical knowledge gaps remain in the understanding of the annual recurrence in endemic areas and the nature of epidemic outbreaks, especially those that follow extreme hydroclimatic events. Teleconnections with large-scale climate phenomena affecting regional scale hydroclimatic drivers of cholera dynamics remain largely unexplained. For centuries, the Bengal delta region has been strongly influenced by the asymmetric availability of water in the rivers Ganges and the Brahmaputra. As these two major rivers are known to have strong contrasting affects on local cholera dynamics in the region, we argue that the role of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), or other phenomena needs to be interpreted in the context of the seasonal role of individual rivers and subsequent impact on local environmental processes, not as a teleconnection having a remote and unified effect. We present a modified hypothesis that the influences of large-scale climate phenomena such as ENSO and IOD on Bengal cholera can be explicitly identified and incorporated through regional scale hydroclimatic drivers. Here, we provide an analytical review of the literature addressing cholera and climate linkages and present hypotheses, based on recent evidence, and quantification on the role of regional scale hydroclimatic drivers of cholera. We argue that the seasonal changes in precipitation and temperature, and resulting river discharge in the GBM basin region during ENSO and IOD events have a dominant combined effect on the endemic persistence and the epidemic vulnerability to cholera outbreaks in spring and fall seasons, respectively, that is stronger than the effect of localized hydrological and socio-economic sensitivities in Bangladesh. In addition, systematic identification of underlying seasonal hydroclimatic drivers will allow us to harness the inherent system memory of these processes to develop early warning systems and strengthen prevention measures.

Nonlinear modeling, strength-based design, and testing of flexible piezoelectric energy harvesters under large dynamic loads for rotorcraft applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leadenham, Stephen; Erturk, Alper

2014-04-01

There has been growing interest in enabling wireless health and usage monitoring for rotorcraft applications, such as helicopter rotor systems. Large dynamic loads and acceleration fluctuations available in these environments make the implementation of vibration-based piezoelectric energy harvesters a very promising choice. However, such extreme loads transmitted to the harvester can also be detrimental to piezoelectric laminates and overall system reliability. Particularly flexible resonant cantilever configurations tuned to match the dominant excitation frequency can be subject to very large deformations and failure of brittle piezoelectric laminates due to excessive bending stresses at the root of the harvester. Design of resonant piezoelectric energy harvesters for use in these environments require nonlinear electroelastic dynamic modeling and strength-based analysis to maximize the power output while ensuring that the harvester is still functional. This paper presents a mathematical framework to design and analyze the dynamics of nonlinear flexible piezoelectric energy harvesters under large base acceleration levels. A strength-based limit is imposed to design the piezoelectric energy harvester with a proof mass while accounting for material, geometric, and dissipative nonlinearities, with a focus on two demonstrative case studies having the same linear fundamental resonance frequency but different overhang length and proof mass values. Experiments are conducted at different excitation levels for validation of the nonlinear design approach proposed in this work. The case studies in this work reveal that harvesters exhibiting similar behavior and power generation performance at low excitation levels (e.g. less than 0.1g) can have totally different strength-imposed performance limitations under high excitations (e.g. above 1g). Nonlinear modeling and strength-based design is necessary for such excitation levels especially when using resonant cantilevers with no geometric constraint.

Communication Dynamics of Blog Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goldberg, Mark; Kelley, Stephen; Magdon-Ismail, Malik; Mertsalov, Konstantin; Wallace, William (Al)

We study the communication dynamics of Blog networks, focusing on the Russian section of LiveJournal as a case study. Communication (blogger-to-blogger links) in such online communication networks is very dynamic: over 60% of the links in the network are new from one week to the next, though the set of bloggers remains approximately constant. Two fundamental questions are: (i) what models adequately describe such dynamic communication behavior; and (ii) how does one detect the phase transitions, i.e. the changes that go beyond the standard high-level dynamics? We approach these questions through the notion of stable statistics. We give strong experimental evidence to the fact that, despite the extreme amount of communication dynamics, several aggregate statistics are remarkably stable. We use stable statistics to test our models of communication dynamics postulating that any good model should produce values for these statistics which are both stable and close to the observed ones. Stable statistics can also be used to identify phase transitions, since any change in a normally stable statistic indicates a substantial change in the nature of the communication dynamics. We describe models of the communication dynamics in large social networks based on the principle of locality of communication: a node's communication energy is spent mostly within its own "social area," the locality of the node.

Episodic Sediment Supply from Mountains and Downstream Emplacement within Large Lowland Basins: Seeking a Sink-to-Source Synthesis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aalto, R. E.

2009-12-01

Application of a new geochronological method for high-resolution 210-Pb dating over the past 5 years has facilitated the identification of individual floodplain sedimentation events across disparate large river basins: three examples from ongoing research include a pristine 720,000 km2 basin in northern Bolivia, a 36,000 km2 basin in Papua New Guinea, and the 70,000 km2 Sacramento River Basin in California. Published and new research suggests that large, rapid-rise, cold-phase ENSO floods account for the preponderance of sediment accumulation within the two tropical systems, and that extreme floods associated with ENSO similarly correspond to transport and deposition of material within the extensive floodways along the Sacramento River. The vast scale of these temporally discrete deposits within such large river systems (typically 10s to 100s of millions of tonnes) begs the question: where did all this material come from? Huge deposits require similarly massive episodic supply and transport of material from upstream, often specifically within the very short timescale of a single large flood event. What data and techniques are available to track and balance such enormous mass budgets? This presentation explores this general theme with new data from the three iconic systems identified above. New daily discharge data are coupled with 210-Pb concentrations and particle size distribution in sediment to elucidate the considerable inter-annual variation of sediment supply from the Andes, resulting from the interaction of Andean erosion, anthropogenic effects, and the dynamics of extreme climate. Biogeochemical and/or geochemical tracers can be employed for all three study basins to track sediment from source to sink (or alternatively, working from the well-defined sink to the less-constrained source), providing insight into the geomorphic processes that modulate the efflux, transport, intermediate channel/floodplain storage, and downstream delivery of sediment during extreme flooding events. Landslide in the Bolivian Andes: Does episodic erosion correlate with episodic deposition?

Coupled Land-Atmosphere Dynamics Govern Long Duration Floods: A Pilot Study in Missouri River Basin Using a Bayesian Hierarchical Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Najibi, N.; Lu, M.; Devineni, N.

2017-12-01

Long duration floods cause substantial damages and prolonged interruptions to water resource facilities and critical infrastructure. We present a novel generalized statistical and physical based model for flood duration with a deeper understanding of dynamically coupled nexus of the land surface wetness, effective atmospheric circulation and moisture transport/release. We applied the model on large reservoirs in the Missouri River Basin. The results indicate that the flood duration is not only a function of available moisture in the air, but also the antecedent condition of the blocking system of atmospheric pressure, resulting in enhanced moisture convergence, as well as the effectiveness of moisture condensation process leading to release. Quantifying these dynamics with a two-layer climate informed Bayesian multilevel model, we explain more than 80% variations in flood duration. The model considers the complex interaction between moisture transport, synoptic-to-large-scale atmospheric circulation pattern, and the antecedent wetness condition in the basin. Our findings suggest that synergy between a large low-pressure blocking system and a higher rate of divergent wind often triggers a long duration flood, and the prerequisite for moisture supply to trigger such event is moderate, which is more associated with magnitude than duration. In turn, this condition causes an extremely long duration flood if the surface wetness rate advancing to the flood event was already increased.

Can the complementary relationship between actual and potential evaporation be used to quantify heatwaves?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aminzadeh, Milad; Or, Dani

2017-04-01

Extreme climate events such as heatwaves with prolonged periods of high air temperatures have large environmental, social, and economic impacts ranging from crop failure to health and desiccation damages. Periods of low precipitation with high temperatures decrease soil moisture storage and thus affect surface energy partitioning. The heuristic concepts in the basis of the Complementary Relationship (CR) suggest that a fraction of radiative energy not used for evaporation contributes to increased sensible heat flux thus heats near-surface atmosphere. We have recently generalized the CR framework for spatially heterogeneous landscapes thereby enable prediction of actual evapotranspiration (ET) from routine atmospheric measurements. Capitalizing on the coupling between moisture availability, actual ET and sensible heat flux we propose using the CR to predict conditions conducive to rapid increase in regional sensible heat flux associated with the onset of extreme heatwaves. The proposed framework is evaluated using satellite surface temperature and FLUXNET data with newly derived metrics for the onset of heatwaves. The concepts could be extended to obtain new insights into the dynamics of more persistent climate extremes such as regional droughts.

Extreme value statistics and finite-size scaling at the ecological extinction/laminar-turbulence transition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shih, Hong-Yan; Goldenfeld, Nigel

Experiments on transitional turbulence in pipe flow seem to show that turbulence is a transient metastable state since the measured mean lifetime of turbulence puffs does not diverge asymptotically at a critical Reynolds number. Yet measurements reveal that the lifetime scales with Reynolds number in a super-exponential way reminiscent of extreme value statistics, and simulations and experiments in Couette and channel flow exhibit directed percolation type scaling phenomena near a well-defined transition. This universality class arises from the interplay between small-scale turbulence and a large-scale collective zonal flow, which exhibit predator-prey behavior. Why is asymptotically divergent behavior not observed? Using directed percolation and a stochastic individual level model of predator-prey dynamics related to transitional turbulence, we investigate the relation between extreme value statistics and power law critical behavior, and show that the paradox is resolved by carefully defining what is measured in the experiments. We theoretically derive the super-exponential scaling law, and using finite-size scaling, show how the same data can give both super-exponential behavior and power-law critical scaling.

Fast neural network surrogates for very high dimensional physics-based models in computational oceanography.

PubMed

van der Merwe, Rudolph; Leen, Todd K; Lu, Zhengdong; Frolov, Sergey; Baptista, Antonio M

2007-05-01

We present neural network surrogates that provide extremely fast and accurate emulation of a large-scale circulation model for the coupled Columbia River, its estuary and near ocean regions. The circulation model has O(10(7)) degrees of freedom, is highly nonlinear and is driven by ocean, atmospheric and river influences at its boundaries. The surrogates provide accurate emulation of the full circulation code and run over 1000 times faster. Such fast dynamic surrogates will enable significant advances in ensemble forecasts in oceanography and weather.

Ear Deformations Give Bats a Physical Mechanism for Fast Adaptation of Ultrasonic Beam Patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, Li; Balakrishnan, Sreenath; He, Weikai; Yan, Zhen; Müller, Rolf

2011-11-01

A large number of mammals, including humans, have intricate outer ear shapes that diffract incoming sound in a direction- and frequency-specific manner. Through this physical process, the outer ear shapes encode sound-source information into the sensory signals from each ear. Our results show that horseshoe bats could dynamically control these diffraction processes through fast nonrigid ear deformations. The bats’ ear shapes can alter between extreme configurations in about 100 ms and thereby change their acoustic properties in ways that would suit different acoustic sensing tasks.

Declining Mortality Inequality within Cities during the Health Transition.

PubMed

Costa, Dora L; Kahn, Matthew E

2015-05-01

In the United States in the late 19th and early 20th century, large cities had extremely high death rates from infectious disease. Within major cities such as New York City and Philadelphia, there was significant variation at any point in time in the mortality rate across neighborhoods. Between 1900 and 1930 neighborhood mortality convergence took place in New York City and Philadelphia. We document these trends and discuss their consequences for neighborhood quality of life dynamics and the economic incidence of who gains from effective public health interventions.

Evaluations of high-resolution dynamically downscaled ensembles over the contiguous United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zobel, Zachary; Wang, Jiali; Wuebbles, Donald J.; Kotamarthi, V. Rao

2018-02-01

This study uses Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model to evaluate the performance of six dynamical downscaled decadal historical simulations with 12-km resolution for a large domain (7200 × 6180 km) that covers most of North America. The initial and boundary conditions are from three global climate models (GCMs) and one reanalysis data. The GCMs employed in this study are the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Earth System Model with Generalized Ocean Layer Dynamics component, Community Climate System Model, version 4, and the Hadley Centre Global Environment Model, version 2-Earth System. The reanalysis data is from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction-US. Department of Energy Reanalysis II. We analyze the effects of bias correcting, the lateral boundary conditions and the effects of spectral nudging. We evaluate the model performance for seven surface variables and four upper atmospheric variables based on their climatology and extremes for seven subregions across the United States. The results indicate that the simulation's performance depends on both location and the features/variable being tested. We find that the use of bias correction and/or nudging is beneficial in many situations, but employing these when running the RCM is not always an improvement when compared to the reference data. The use of an ensemble mean and median leads to a better performance in measuring the climatology, while it is significantly biased for the extremes, showing much larger differences than individual GCM driven model simulations from the reference data. This study provides a comprehensive evaluation of these historical model runs in order to make informed decisions when making future projections.

Greedy algorithms in disordered systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duxbury, P. M.; Dobrin, R.

1999-08-01

We discuss search, minimal path and minimal spanning tree algorithms and their applications to disordered systems. Greedy algorithms solve these problems exactly, and are related to extremal dynamics in physics. Minimal cost path (Dijkstra) and minimal cost spanning tree (Prim) algorithms provide extremal dynamics for a polymer in a random medium (the KPZ universality class) and invasion percolation (without trapping) respectively.

Work-in-Progress Presented at the Army Symposium on Solid Mechanics, 1980 - Designing for Extremes: Environment, Loading, and Structural Behavior Held at Cape Cod, Massachusetts, 29 September-2 October 1980

DTIC Science & Technology

1980-09-01

relating x’and y’ Figure 2: Basic Laboratory Simulation Model 73 COMPARISON OF COMPUTED AND MEASURED ACCELERATIONS IN A DYNAMICALLY LOADED TACTICAL...Survival (General) Displacements Mines (Ordnance) Telemeter Systems Dynamic Response Models Temperatures Dynamics Moisture Thermal Stresses Energy...probabilistic reliability model for the XM 753 projectile rocket motor to bulkhead joint under extreme loading conditions is constructed. The reliability

Dynamic Relaxation: A Technique for Detailed Thermo-Elastic Structural Analysis of Transportation Structures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shoukry, Samir N.; William, Gergis W.; Riad, Mourad Y.; McBride, Kevyn C.

2006-08-01

Dynamic relaxation is a technique developed to solve static problems through an explicit integration in finite element. The main advantage of such a technique is the ability to solve a large problem in a relatively short time compared with the traditional implicit techniques, especially when using nonlinear material models. This paper describes the use of such a technique in analyzing large transportation structures as dowel jointed concrete pavements and 306-m-long, reinforced concrete bridge superstructure under the effect of temperature variations. The main feature of the pavement model is the detailed modeling of dowel bars and their interfaces with the surrounding concrete using extremely fine mesh of solid elements, while in the bridge structure it is the detailed modeling of the girder-deck interface as well as the bracing members between the girders. The 3DFE results were found to be in a good agreement with experimentally measured data obtained from an instrumented pavements sections and a highway bridge constructed in West Virginia. Thus, such a technique provides a good tool for analyzing the response of large structures to static loads in a fraction of the time required by traditional, implicit finite element methods.

Prospectus: towards the development of high-fidelity models of wall turbulence at large Reynolds number

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klewicki, J. C.; Chini, G. P.; Gibson, J. F.

2017-03-01

Recent and on-going advances in mathematical methods and analysis techniques, coupled with the experimental and computational capacity to capture detailed flow structure at increasingly large Reynolds numbers, afford an unprecedented opportunity to develop realistic models of high Reynolds number turbulent wall-flow dynamics. A distinctive attribute of this new generation of models is their grounding in the Navier-Stokes equations. By adhering to this challenging constraint, high-fidelity models ultimately can be developed that not only predict flow properties at high Reynolds numbers, but that possess a mathematical structure that faithfully captures the underlying flow physics. These first-principles models are needed, for example, to reliably manipulate flow behaviours at extreme Reynolds numbers. This theme issue of Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A provides a selection of contributions from the community of researchers who are working towards the development of such models. Broadly speaking, the research topics represented herein report on dynamical structure, mechanisms and transport; scale interactions and self-similarity; model reductions that restrict nonlinear interactions; and modern asymptotic theories. In this prospectus, the challenges associated with modelling turbulent wall-flows at large Reynolds numbers are briefly outlined, and the connections between the contributing papers are highlighted.

Coronal Mass Ejections and their Implications for the Corona and Heliosphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Antiochos, Spiro K.

2008-01-01

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are the largest and most energetic form of transients that connect the Sun to the heliosphere. They are critically important both for understanding the physical mechanisms of explosive solar activity and for predicting space weather. Furthermore they are an extreme example of how cross-scale coupling can play a critical role in determining the properties of a large-scale dynamical system. In this presentation CME theories are reviewed and the latest results from 3D numerical modeling of CME initiation propagation to the heliosphere are presented. In particular the focus is on the breakout model, but many of the results hold for the flux rope models as well. The implications of these results for understanding heliospheric structure and dynamics and for upcoming space missions will be discussed.

The addition of body armor diminishes dynamic postural stability in military soldiers.

PubMed

Sell, Timothy C; Pederson, Jonathan J; Abt, John P; Nagai, Takashi; Deluzio, Jennifer; Wirt, Michael D; McCord, Larry J; Lephart, Scott M

2013-01-01

Poor postural stability has been identified as a risk factor for lower extremity musculoskeletal injury. The additional weight of body armor carried by Soldiers alters static postural stability and may predispose Soldiers to lower extremity musculoskeletal injuries. However, static postural stability tasks poorly replicate the dynamic military environment, which places considerable stress on the postural control system during tactical training and combat. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to examine the effects of body armor on dynamic postural stability during single-leg jump landings. Thirty-six 101st Airborne Division (Air Assault) Soldiers performed single-leg jump landings in the anterior direction with and without wearing body armor. The dynamic postural stability index and the individual stability indices (medial-lateral stability index, anterior-posterior stability index, and vertical stability index) were calculated for each condition. Paired sample t-tests were performed to determine differences between conditions. Significant differences existed for the medial-lateral stability index, anterior-posterior stability index, vertical stability index, and dynamic postural stability index (p < 0.05). The addition of body armor resulted in diminished dynamic postural stability, which may result in increased lower extremity injuries. Training programs should address the altered dynamic postural stability while wearing body armor in attempts to promote adaptations that will result in safer performance during dynamic tasks.

Acute Effects of Static Stretching, Dynamic Exercises, and High Volume Upper Extremity Plyometric Activity on Tennis Serve Performance

PubMed Central

Gelen, Ertugrul; Dede, Muhittin; Bingul, Bergun Meric; Bulgan, Cigdem; Aydin, Mensure

2012-01-01

The purpose of this study was to compare the acute effects of static stretching; dynamic exercises and high volume upper extremity plyometric activity on tennis serve performance. Twenty-six elite young tennis players (15.1 ± 4.2 years, 167.9 ± 5.8 cm and 61.6 ± 8.1 kg) performed 4 different warm-up (WU) routines in a random order on non-consecutive days. The WU methods consisted of traditional WU (jogging, rally and serve practice) (TRAD); traditional WU and static stretching (TRSS); traditional WU and dynamic exercise (TRDE); and traditional WU and high volume upper extremity plyometric activity (TRPLYP). Following each WU session, subjects were tested on a tennis serve ball speed test. TRAD, TRSS, TRDE and TRPLYO were compared by repeated measurement analyses of variance and post-hoc comparisons. In this study a 1 to 3 percent increase in tennis serve ball speed was recorded in TRDE and TRPLYO when compared to TRAD (p< 0.05). However, no significant change in ball speed performance between TRSS and TRAD. (p> 0.05). ICCs for ball speed showed strong reliability (0.82 to 0.93) for the ball speed measurements.The results of this study indicate that dynamic and high volume upper extremity plyometric WU activities are likely beneficial to serve speed of elite junior tennis players. Key points After the traditional warm up in tennis, static stretching has no effect on serve speed. Tennis players should perform dynamic exercises and/or high volume upper extremity plyometric activities to improve their athletic performance. PMID:24150068

Transparency of near-critical density plasmas under extreme laser intensities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ji, Liangliang; Shen, Baifei; Zhang, Xiaomei

2018-05-01

We investigated transparency of near-critical plasma targets for highly intense incident lasers and discovered that beyond relativistic transparency, there exists an anomalous opacity regime, where the plasma target tend to be opaque at extreme light intensities. The unexpected phenomenon is found to originate from the trapping of ions under exotic conditions. We found out the propagation velocity and the amplitude of the laser-driven charge separation field in a large parameter range and derived the trapping probability of ions. The model successfully interpolates the emergence of anomalous opacity in simulations. The trend is more significant when radiation reaction comes into effect, leaving a transparency window in the intensity domain. Transparency of a plasma target defines the electron dynamics and thereby the emission mechanisms of gamma-photons in the ultra-relativistic regime. Our findings are not only of fundamental interest but also imply the proper mechanisms for generating desired electron/gamma sources.

Extreme AO coronagraphy laboratory demonstration in the context of SPHERE

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martinez, P.; Aller Carpentier, E.; Kasper, M.

2010-10-01

The exoplanetary science through direct imaging and spectroscopy will largely expand with the very soon raise of new instruments at the VLT (SPHERE), Gemini (GPI), and Subaru (HiCIAO) observatories. All these ground-based adaptive optics instruments include extremely high performance adaptive optics (XAO) system, advanced starlight cancellation techniques (e.g. coronagraphy), and speckle calibration techniques (e.g. spectral, angular, or polarimetry). In this context we report laboratory results obtained with the High-Order Test bench (HOT), the adaptive optics facility at the European Southern Observatory headquarters. Under 0.5 arcsec dynamical seeing, efficiently corrected by an XAO system delivering H-band Strehl ratio above 90%, we discuss contrast levels obtained with an apodized pupil Lyot coronagraph using differential imaging techniques (spectral and polarimetric). Accounting for system differences (e.g. deformable mirror actuator number), we demonstrate a good agreement between experimental results and expectations for SPHERE, or GPI, while we already met HiCIAO contrast goals.

On long-term ozone trends at Hohenpeissenberg

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Claude, H.; Vandersee, W.; Wege, K.

1994-01-01

More than 2000 ozone soundings and a large number of Dobson observations have been performed since 1967 in a unique procedure. The achieved very homogeneous data sets were used to evaluate significant long-term trends both in the troposphere and the stratosphere. The trend amounts to about plus 2 percent per year in the troposphere and to about minus 0.5 percent per year in the stratosphere. Extremely low ozone records obtained during winter 1991/92 are discussed in the light of the long term series. The winter mean of the ozone column is the lowest one of the series. The ozone deficit occurred mainly in the lower stratosphere. One cause may be the Pinatubo cloud. Even compared with the extreme winter mean following the El Chichon eruption the ozone content was lower. Additionally ozone was reduced by dynamical effects due to unusual weather situations.

Nerve Entrapment Syndromes at the Wrist and Elbow by Sonography.

PubMed

Klauser, Andrea S; Buzzegoli, Tommaso; Taljanovic, Mihra S; Strobl, Sylvia; Rauch, Stefan; Teh, James; Wanschitz, Julia; Löscher, Wolfgang; Martinoli, Carlo

2018-07-01

Nerve entrapment syndromes of the upper extremity are associated with structural abnormalities or by an intrinsic abnormality of the nerve. Nerve entrapment syndromes generally have a typical clinical presentation, and findings on physical examination and in conjunction with electrodiagnostic studies imaging is used to evaluate the cause, severity, and etiology of the entrapment. With the development of high-frequency linear array transducers (12-24 MHz), ultrasound (US) is incomparable in terms of spatial resolution to depict morphological aspects and changes in nerves. US can identify the abnormalities causing entrapment, such as fibrous bands, ganglia, anomalous muscles, and osseous deformities, with the advantage of dynamic assessment under active and passive examination. US is a unique diagnostic modality that allows superb visualization of both large and small peripheral terminal nerve branches of the upper extremity and enables the correct diagnosis of various nerve entrapment syndromes. Thieme Medical Publishers 333 Seventh Avenue, New York, NY 10001, USA.

Toward an Improved Representation of Middle Atmospheric Dynamics Thanks to the ARISE Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blanc, E.; Ceranna, L.; Hauchecorne, A.; Charlton-Perez, A.; Marchetti, E.; Evers, L. G.; Kvaerna, T.; Lastovicka, J.; Eliasson, L.; Crosby, N. B.; Blanc-Benon, P.; Le Pichon, A.; Brachet, N.; Pilger, C.; Keckhut, P.; Assink, J. D.; Smets, P. S. M.; Lee, C. F.; Kero, J.; Sindelarova, T.; Kämpfer, N.; Rüfenacht, R.; Farges, T.; Millet, C.; Näsholm, S. P.; Gibbons, S. J.; Espy, P. J.; Hibbins, R. E.; Heinrich, P.; Ripepe, M.; Khaykin, S.; Mze, N.; Chum, J.

2018-03-01

This paper reviews recent progress toward understanding the dynamics of the middle atmosphere in the framework of the Atmospheric Dynamics Research InfraStructure in Europe (ARISE) initiative. The middle atmosphere, integrating the stratosphere and mesosphere, is a crucial region which influences tropospheric weather and climate. Enhancing the understanding of middle atmosphere dynamics requires improved measurement of the propagation and breaking of planetary and gravity waves originating in the lowest levels of the atmosphere. Inter-comparison studies have shown large discrepancies between observations and models, especially during unresolved disturbances such as sudden stratospheric warmings for which model accuracy is poorer due to a lack of observational constraints. Correctly predicting the variability of the middle atmosphere can lead to improvements in tropospheric weather forecasts on timescales of weeks to season. The ARISE project integrates different station networks providing observations from ground to the lower thermosphere, including the infrasound system developed for the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty verification, the Lidar Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change, complementary meteor radars, wind radiometers, ionospheric sounders and satellites. This paper presents several examples which show how multi-instrument observations can provide a better description of the vertical dynamics structure of the middle atmosphere, especially during large disturbances such as gravity waves activity and stratospheric warming events. The paper then demonstrates the interest of ARISE data in data assimilation for weather forecasting and re-analyzes the determination of dynamics evolution with climate change and the monitoring of atmospheric extreme events which have an atmospheric signature, such as thunderstorms or volcanic eruptions.

Techniques that Link Extreme Events to the Large Scale, Applied to California Heat Waves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grotjahn, R.

2015-12-01

Understanding the mechanisms how Californian Central Valley (CCV) summer extreme hot spells develop is very important since the events have major impacts on the economy and human safety. Results from a series of CCV heat wave studies will be presented, emphasizing the techniques used. Key larger scale elements are identified statistically that are also consistent with synoptic and dynamic understanding of what must be present during extreme heat. Beyond providing a clear synoptic explanation, these key elements have high predictability, in part because soil moisture has little annual variation in the heavily-irrigated CCV. In turn, the predictability naturally leads to an effective tool to assess climate model simulation of these heat waves in historical and future climate scenarios. (Does the model develop extreme heat for the correct reasons?) Further work identified that these large scale elements arise in two quite different ways: one from expansion southwestward of a pre-existing heat wave in southwest Canada, the other formed in place from parcels traversing the North Pacific. The pre-existing heat wave explains an early result showing correlation between heat waves in Sacramento California, and other locations along the US west coast, including distant Seattle Washington. CCV heat waves can be preceded by unusually strong tropical Indian Ocean and Indonesian convection, this partial link may occur through an Asian subtropical jet wave guide. Another link revealed by diagnostics is a middle and higher latitude source of wave activity in Siberia and East Asia that also leads to the development of the CCV heat wave. This talk will address as many of these results and the tools used to obtain them as is reasonable within the available time.

Large-Scale Meteorological Patterns Associated with Extreme Precipitation in the US Northeast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Agel, L. A.; Barlow, M. A.

2016-12-01

Patterns of daily large-scale circulation associated with Northeast US extreme precipitation are identified using both k-means clustering (KMC) and Self-Organizing Maps (SOM) applied to tropopause height. Tropopause height provides a compact representation of large-scale circulation patterns, as it is linked to mid-level circulation, low-level thermal contrasts and low-level diabatic heating. Extreme precipitation is defined as the top 1% of daily wet-day observations at 35 Northeast stations, 1979-2008. KMC is applied on extreme precipitation days only, while the SOM algorithm is applied to all days in order to place the extreme results into a larger context. Six tropopause patterns are identified on extreme days: a summertime tropopause ridge, a summertime shallow trough/ridge, a summertime shallow eastern US trough, a deeper wintertime eastern US trough, and two versions of a deep cold-weather trough located across the east-central US. Thirty SOM patterns for all days are identified. Results for all days show that 6 SOM patterns account for almost half of the extreme days, although extreme precipitation occurs in all SOM patterns. The same SOM patterns associated with extreme precipitation also routinely produce non-extreme precipitation; however, on extreme precipitation days the troughs, on average, are deeper and the downstream ridges more pronounced. Analysis of other fields associated with the large-scale patterns show various degrees of anomalously strong upward motion during, and moisture transport preceding, extreme precipitation events.

The balance between adaptation to catalysts and competition radius shapes the total wealth, time variability and inequality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davidovich, Hadar; Louzoun, Yoram

2013-05-01

The globalization of modern markets has led to the emergence of competition between producers in ever growing distances. This opens the interesting question in population dynamics of the effect of long-range competition. We here study a model of non-local competition to test the effect of the competition radius on the wealth distribution, using the framework of a stochastic birth-death process, with non-local interactions. We show that this model leads to non-trivial dynamics that can have implications in other domains of physics. Competition is studied in the context of the catalyst induced growth of autocatalytic agents, representing the growth of capital in the presence of investment opportunities. These agents are competing with all other agents in a given radius on growth possibilities. We show that a large scale competition leads to an extreme localization of the agents, where typically a single aggregate of agents can survive within a given competition radius. The survival of these aggregates is determined by the diffusion rates of the agents and the catalysts. For high and low agent diffusion rates, the agent population is always annihilated, while for intermediate diffusion rates, a finite agent population persists. Increasing the catalyst diffusion rate always leads to a decrease in the average agent population density. The extreme localization of the agents leads to the emergence of intermittent fluctuations, when a large aggregate of agents disappear. As the competition radius increases, so does the average agent density and its spatial variance as well as the volatility.

Prandtl-number Effects in High-Rayleigh-number Spherical Convection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Orvedahl, Ryan J.; Calkins, Michael A.; Featherstone, Nicholas A.; Hindman, Bradley W.

2018-03-01

Convection is the predominant mechanism by which energy and angular momentum are transported in the outer portion of the Sun. The resulting overturning motions are also the primary energy source for the solar magnetic field. An accurate solar dynamo model therefore requires a complete description of the convective motions, but these motions remain poorly understood. Studying stellar convection numerically remains challenging; it occurs within a parameter regime that is extreme by computational standards. The fluid properties of the convection zone are characterized in part by the Prandtl number \\Pr = ν/κ, where ν is the kinematic viscosity and κ is the thermal diffusion; in stars, \\Pr is extremely low, \\Pr ≈ 10‑7. The influence of \\Pr on the convective motions at the heart of the dynamo is not well understood since most numerical studies are limited to using \\Pr ≈ 1. We systematically vary \\Pr and the degree of thermal forcing, characterized through a Rayleigh number, to explore its influence on the convective dynamics. For sufficiently large thermal driving, the simulations reach a so-called convective free-fall state where diffusion no longer plays an important role in the interior dynamics. Simulations with a lower \\Pr generate faster convective flows and broader ranges of scales for equivalent levels of thermal forcing. Characteristics of the spectral distribution of the velocity remain largely insensitive to changes in \\Pr . Importantly, we find that \\Pr plays a key role in determining when the free-fall regime is reached by controlling the thickness of the thermal boundary layer.

Drought and flood in the Anthropocene: feedback mechanisms in reservoir operation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Di Baldassarre, Giuliano; Martinez, Fabian; Kalantari, Zahra; Viglione, Alberto

2017-03-01

Over the last few decades, numerous studies have investigated human impacts on drought and flood events, while conversely other studies have explored human responses to hydrological extremes. Yet, there is still little understanding about the dynamics resulting from their interplay, i.e. both impacts and responses. Current quantitative methods therefore can fail to assess future risk dynamics and, as a result, while risk reduction strategies built on these methods often work in the short term, they tend to lead to unintended consequences in the long term. In this paper, we review the puzzles and dynamics resulting from the interplay of society and hydrological extremes, and describe an initial effort to model hydrological extremes in the Anthropocene. In particular, we first discuss the need for a novel approach to explicitly account for human interactions with both drought and flood events, and then present a stylized model simulating the reciprocal effects between hydrological extremes and changing reservoir operation rules. Lastly, we highlight the unprecedented opportunity offered by the current proliferation of big data to unravel the coevolution of hydrological extremes and society across scales and along gradients of social and hydrological conditions.

Variable effects of climate on forest growth in relation to climate extremes, disturbance, and forest dynamics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Itter, Malcolm S.; Finley, Andrew O.; D'Amato, Anthony W.; Foster, Jane R.; Bradford, John B.

2017-01-01

Changes in the frequency, duration, and severity of climate extremes are forecast to occur under global climate change. The impacts of climate extremes on forest productivity and health remain difficult to predict due to potential interactions with disturbance events and forest dynamics—changes in forest stand composition, density, size and age structure over time. Such interactions may lead to non-linear forest growth responses to climate involving thresholds and lag effects. Understanding how forest dynamics influence growth responses to climate is particularly important given stand structure and composition can be modified through management to increase forest resistance and resilience to climate change. To inform such adaptive management, we develop a hierarchical Bayesian state space model in which climate effects on tree growth are allowed to vary over time and in relation to past climate extremes, disturbance events, and forest dynamics. The model is an important step toward integrating disturbance and forest dynamics into predictions of forest growth responses to climate extremes. We apply the model to a dendrochronology data set from forest stands of varying composition, structure, and development stage in northeastern Minnesota that have experienced extreme climate years and forest tent caterpillar defoliation events. Mean forest growth was most sensitive to water balance variables representing climatic water deficit. Forest growth responses to water deficit were partitioned into responses driven by climatic threshold exceedances and interactions with insect defoliation. Forest growth was both resistant and resilient to climate extremes with the majority of forest growth responses occurring after multiple climatic threshold exceedances across seasons and years. Interactions between climate and disturbance were observed in a subset of years with insect defoliation increasing forest growth sensitivity to water availability. Forest growth was particularly sensitive to climate extremes during periods of high stem density following major regeneration events when average inter-tree competition was high. Results suggest the resistance and resilience of forest growth to climate extremes can be increased through management steps such as thinning to reduce competition during early stages of stand development and small-group selection harvests to maintain forest structures characteristic of older, mature stands.

Gravo-Aeroelastic Scaling for Extreme-Scale Wind Turbines

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fingersh, Lee J; Loth, Eric; Kaminski, Meghan

2017-06-09

A scaling methodology is described in the present paper for extreme-scale wind turbines (rated at 10 MW or more) that allow their sub-scale turbines to capture their key blade dynamics and aeroelastic deflections. For extreme-scale turbines, such deflections and dynamics can be substantial and are primarily driven by centrifugal, thrust and gravity forces as well as the net torque. Each of these are in turn a function of various wind conditions, including turbulence levels that cause shear, veer, and gust loads. The 13.2 MW rated SNL100-03 rotor design, having a blade length of 100-meters, is herein scaled to the CART3more » wind turbine at NREL using 25% geometric scaling and blade mass and wind speed scaled by gravo-aeroelastic constraints. In order to mimic the ultralight structure on the advanced concept extreme-scale design the scaling results indicate that the gravo-aeroelastically scaled blades for the CART3 are be three times lighter and 25% longer than the current CART3 blades. A benefit of this scaling approach is that the scaled wind speeds needed for testing are reduced (in this case by a factor of two), allowing testing under extreme gust conditions to be much more easily achieved. Most importantly, this scaling approach can investigate extreme-scale concepts including dynamic behaviors and aeroelastic deflections (including flutter) at an extremely small fraction of the full-scale cost.« less

Exploring EUV Spicules Using 304 Angstrom He II Data from SDO AIA

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Snyder, Ian R.; Sterling, Alphonse C.; Falconer, David A.; Moore, Ron L.

2014-01-01

We present results from a statistical study of He II 304 Angstrom Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) spicules at the limb of the Sun. We also measured properties of one macrospicule; macrospicules are longer than most spicules, and much broader in width than spicules. We use high-cadence (12 second) and high-resolution (0.6 arcseconds pixels) resolution data from the Atmospheric Imaging Array (AIA) instrument on the Solar Dynamic Observatory (SDO). All of the observed events occurred near the solar north pole, where quiet Sun or coronal hole environments ensued. We examined the maximum lengths, maximum rise velocities, and lifetimes of 33 Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) spicules and the macrospicule. For the bulk of the Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) spicules these quantities are, respectively, approximately 10,000-40,000 kilometers, 20-100 kilometers per second, and approximately 100- approximately 1000 seconds. For the macrospicule the corresponding quantities were respectively approximately 60,000 kilometers, approximately 130 kilometers per second, approximately 1800 seconds, which is typical of macrospicules measured by other workers. Therefore macrospicules are taller, longer-lived, and faster than most Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) spicules. The rise profiles of both the spicules and the macrospicules match well a second-order ("parabolic" ) trajectory, although the acceleration was often weaker than that of solar gravity in the profiles fitted to the trajectories. Our macrospicule also had an obvious brightening at its base at birth, while such brightening was not apparent for the Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) spicules. Most of the Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) spicules remained visible during their descent back to the solar surface, although a small percentage of the spicules and the macrospicule faded out before falling back to the surface. Our sample of macrospicules is not yet large enough to determine whether their initiation mechanism is identical to that of Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) spicules.

Gravitational Waves From the Kerr/CFT Correspondence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Porfyriadis, Achilleas

Astronomical observation suggests the existence of near-extreme Kerr black holes in the sky. Properties of diffeomorphisms imply that dynamics of the near-horizon region of near-extreme Kerr are governed by an infinite-dimensional conformal symmetry. This symmetry may be exploited to analytically, rather than numerically, compute a variety of potentially observable processes. In this thesis we compute the gravitational radiation emitted by a small compact object that orbits in the near-horizon region and plunges into the horizon of a large rapidly rotating black hole. We study the holographically dual processes in the context of the Kerr/CFT correspondence and find our conformal field theory (CFT) computations in perfect agreement with the gravity results. We compute the radiation emitted by a particle on the innermost stable circular orbit (ISCO) of a rapidly spinning black hole. We confirm previous estimates of the overall scaling of the power radiated, but show that there are also small oscillations all the way to extremality. Furthermore, we reveal an intricate mode-by-mode structure in the flux to infinity, with only certain modes having the dominant scaling. The scaling of each mode is controlled by its conformal weight. Massive objects in adiabatic quasi-circular inspiral towards a near-extreme Kerr black hole quickly plunge into the horizon after passing the ISCO. The post-ISCO plunge trajectory is shown to be related by a conformal map to a circular orbit. Conformal symmetry of the near-horizon region is then used to compute analytically the gravitational radiation produced during the plunge phase. Most extreme-mass-ratio-inspirals of small compact objects into supermassive black holes end with a fast plunge from an eccentric last stable orbit. We use conformal transformations to analytically solve for the radiation emitted from various fast plunges into extreme and near-extreme Kerr black holes.

Computational data sciences for assessment and prediction of climate extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ganguly, A. R.

2011-12-01

Climate extremes may be defined inclusively as severe weather events or large shifts in global or regional weather patterns which may be caused or exacerbated by natural climate variability or climate change. This area of research arguably represents one of the largest knowledge-gaps in climate science which is relevant for informing resource managers and policy makers. While physics-based climate models are essential in view of non-stationary and nonlinear dynamical processes, their current pace of uncertainty reduction may not be adequate for urgent stakeholder needs. The structure of the models may in some cases preclude reduction of uncertainty for critical processes at scales or for the extremes of interest. On the other hand, methods based on complex networks, extreme value statistics, machine learning, and space-time data mining, have demonstrated significant promise to improve scientific understanding and generate enhanced predictions. When combined with conceptual process understanding at multiple spatiotemporal scales and designed to handle massive data, interdisciplinary data science methods and algorithms may complement or supplement physics-based models. Specific examples from the prior literature and our ongoing work suggests how data-guided improvements may be possible, for example, in the context of ocean meteorology, climate oscillators, teleconnections, and atmospheric process understanding, which in turn can improve projections of regional climate, precipitation extremes and tropical cyclones in an useful and interpretable fashion. A community-wide effort is motivated to develop and adapt computational data science tools for translating climate model simulations to information relevant for adaptation and policy, as well as for improving our scientific understanding of climate extremes from both observed and model-simulated data.

Correlation dimension and phase space contraction via extreme value theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Faranda, Davide; Vaienti, Sandro

2018-04-01

We show how to obtain theoretical and numerical estimates of correlation dimension and phase space contraction by using the extreme value theory. The maxima of suitable observables sampled along the trajectory of a chaotic dynamical system converge asymptotically to classical extreme value laws where: (i) the inverse of the scale parameter gives the correlation dimension and (ii) the extremal index is associated with the rate of phase space contraction for backward iteration, which in dimension 1 and 2, is closely related to the positive Lyapunov exponent and in higher dimensions is related to the metric entropy. We call it the Dynamical Extremal Index. Numerical estimates are straightforward to obtain as they imply just a simple fit to a univariate distribution. Numerical tests range from low dimensional maps, to generalized Henon maps and climate data. The estimates of the indicators are particularly robust even with relatively short time series.

Dynamical Properties of Eccentric Nuclear Disks: Stability, Longevity, and Implications for Tidal Disruption Rates in Post-merger Galaxies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Madigan, Ann-Marie; Halle, Andrew; Moody, Mackenzie; McCourt, Michael; Nixon, Chris; Wernke, Heather

2018-02-01

In some galaxies, the stars orbiting the supermassive black hole take the form of an eccentric nuclear disk, in which every star is on a coherent, apsidally aligned orbit. The most famous example of an eccentric nuclear disk is the double nucleus of Andromeda, and there is strong evidence for many more in the local universe. Despite their apparent ubiquity, however, a dynamical explanation for their longevity has remained a mystery: differential precession should wipe out large-scale apsidal-alignment on a short timescale. Here we identify a new dynamical mechanism which stabilizes eccentric nuclear disks, and explain for the first time the negative eccentricity gradient seen in the Andromeda nucleus. The stabilizing mechanism drives oscillations of the eccentricity vectors of individual orbits, both in direction (about the mean body of the disk) and in magnitude. Combined with the negative eccentricity gradient, the eccentricity oscillations push some stars near the inner edge of the disk extremely close to the black hole, potentially leading to tidal disruption events (TDEs). Order of magnitude calculations predict extremely high rates in recently formed eccentric nuclear disks (∼0.1–1 {{yr}}-1 {{gal}}-1). Unless the stellar disks are replenished, these rates should decrease with time as the disk depletes in mass. If eccentric nuclear disks form during gas-rich major mergers, this may explain the preferential occurrence of TDEs in recently merged and post-merger (E+A/K+A) galaxies.

Uncertainties in data-model comparisons: Spatio-temporal scales for past climates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lohmann, G.

2016-12-01

Data-model comparisons are hindered by uncertainties like varying reservoir ages or potential seasonality bias of the recorder systems, but also due to the models' difficulty to represent the spatio-temporal variability patterns. For the Holocene we detect a sensitivity to horizontal resolution in the atmosphere, the representation of atmospheric dynamics, as well as the dynamics of the western boundary currents in the ocean. These features can create strong spatial heterogeneity in the North Atlantic and Pacific Oceans over long timescales (unlike a diffusive spatio-temporal scale separation). Futhermore, it is shown that such non-linear mechanisms could create a non-trivial response to seasonal insolation forcing via an atmospheric bridge inducing non-uniform temperature anomalies over the northern continents on multi-millennial time scales. Through the fluctuation-dissipation-theorem, climate variability and sensitivity are ultimately coupled. It is argued that some obvious biases between models and data may be linked to the missing key persistent component of the atmospheric dynamics, the North Atlantic blocking activity. It is shown that blocking is also linked to Atlantic multidecadal ocean variability and to extreme events. Interestingly, several proxies provide a measure of the frequency of extreme events, and a proper representation is a true challenge for climate models. Finally, case studies from deep paleo are presented in which changes in land-sea distribution or subscale parameterizations can cause relatively large effects on surface temperature. Such experiments can explore the phase space of solutions, but show the limitation of past climates to constrain climate sensitivity.

Simple wealth distribution model causing inequality-induced crisis without external shocks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Benisty, Henri

2017-05-01

We address the issue of the dynamics of wealth accumulation and economic crisis triggered by extreme inequality, attempting to stick to most possibly intrinsic assumptions. Our general framework is that of pure or modified multiplicative processes, basically geometric Brownian motions. In contrast with the usual approach of injecting into such stochastic agent models either specific, idiosyncratic internal nonlinear interaction patterns or macroscopic disruptive features, we propose a dynamic inequality model where the attainment of a sizable fraction of the total wealth by very few agents induces a crisis regime with strong intermittency, the explicit coupling between the richest and the rest being a mere normalization mechanism, hence with minimal extrinsic assumptions. The model thus harnesses the recognized lack of ergodicity of geometric Brownian motions. It also provides a statistical intuition to the consequences of Thomas Piketty's recent "r >g " (return rate > growth rate) paradigmatic analysis of very-long-term wealth trends. We suggest that the "water-divide" of wealth flow may define effective classes, making an objective entry point to calibrate the model. Consistently, we check that a tax mechanism associated to a few percent relative bias on elementary daily transactions is able to slow or stop the build-up of large wealth. When extreme fluctuations are tamed down to a stationary regime with sizable but steadier inequalities, it should still offer opportunities to study the dynamics of crisis and the inner effective classes induced through external or internal factors.

Tensile behaviour of geopolymer-based materials under medium and high strain rates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Menna, Costantino; Asprone, Domenico; Forni, Daniele; Roviello, Giuseppina; Ricciotti, Laura; Ferone, Claudio; Bozza, Anna; Prota, Andrea; Cadoni, Ezio

2015-09-01

Geopolymers are a promising class of inorganic materials typically obtained from an alluminosilicate source and an alkaline solution, and characterized by an amorphous 3-D framework structure. These materials are particularly attractive for the construction industry due to mechanical and environmental advantages they exhibit compared to conventional systems. Indeed, geopolymer-based concretes represent a challenge for the large scale uses of such a binder material and many research studies currently focus on this topic. However, the behaviour of geopolymers under high dynamic loads is rarely investigated, even though it is of a fundamental concern for the integrity/vulnerability assessment under extreme dynamic events. The present study aims to investigate the effect of high dynamic loading conditions on the tensile behaviour of different geopolymer formulations. The dynamic tests were performed under different strain rates by using a Hydro-pneumatic machine and a modified Hopkinson bar at the DynaMat laboratory of the University of Applied Sciences of Southern Switzerland. The results are processed in terms of stress-strain relationships and strength dynamic increase factor at different strain-rate levels. The dynamic increase factor was also compared with CEB recommendations. The experimental outcomes can be used to assess the constitutive laws of geopolymers under dynamic load conditions and implemented into analytical models.

Emergence of scaling in human-interest dynamics

PubMed Central

Zhao, Zhi-Dan; Yang, Zimo; Zhang, Zike; Zhou, Tao; Huang, Zi-Gang; Lai, Ying-Cheng

2013-01-01

Human behaviors are often driven by human interests. Despite intense recent efforts in exploring the dynamics of human behaviors, little is known about human-interest dynamics, partly due to the extreme difficulty in accessing the human mind from observations. However, the availability of large-scale data, such as those from e-commerce and smart-phone communications, makes it possible to probe into and quantify the dynamics of human interest. Using three prototypical “Big Data” sets, we investigate the scaling behaviors associated with human-interest dynamics. In particular, from the data sets we uncover fat-tailed (possibly power-law) distributions associated with the three basic quantities: (1) the length of continuous interest, (2) the return time of visiting certain interest, and (3) interest ranking and transition. We argue that there are three basic ingredients underlying human-interest dynamics: preferential return to previously visited interests, inertial effect, and exploration of new interests. We develop a biased random-walk model, incorporating the three ingredients, to account for the observed fat-tailed distributions. Our study represents the first attempt to understand the dynamical processes underlying human interest, which has significant applications in science and engineering, commerce, as well as defense, in terms of specific tasks such as recommendation and human-behavior prediction. PMID:24326949

Evolution of precipitation extremes in two large ensembles of climate simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martel, Jean-Luc; Mailhot, Alain; Talbot, Guillaume; Brissette, François; Ludwig, Ralf; Frigon, Anne; Leduc, Martin; Turcotte, Richard

2017-04-01

Recent studies project significant changes in the future distribution of precipitation extremes due to global warming. It is likely that extreme precipitation intensity will increase in a future climate and that extreme events will be more frequent. In this work, annual maxima daily precipitation series from the Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2) 50-member large ensemble (spatial resolution of 2.8°x2.8°) and the Community Earth System Model (CESM1) 40-member large ensemble (spatial resolution of 1°x1°) are used to investigate extreme precipitation over the historical (1980-2010) and future (2070-2100) periods. The use of these ensembles results in respectively 1 500 (30 years x 50 members) and 1200 (30 years x 40 members) simulated years over both the historical and future periods. These large datasets allow the computation of empirical daily extreme precipitation quantiles for large return periods. Using the CanESM2 and CESM1 large ensembles, extreme daily precipitation with return periods ranging from 2 to 100 years are computed in historical and future periods to assess the impact of climate change. Results indicate that daily precipitation extremes generally increase in the future over most land grid points and that these increases will also impact the 100-year extreme daily precipitation. Considering that many public infrastructures have lifespans exceeding 75 years, the increase in extremes has important implications on service levels of water infrastructures and public safety. Estimated increases in precipitation associated to very extreme precipitation events (e.g. 100 years) will drastically change the likelihood of flooding and their extent in future climate. These results, although interesting, need to be extended to sub-daily durations, relevant for urban flooding protection and urban infrastructure design (e.g. sewer networks, culverts). Models and simulations at finer spatial and temporal resolution are therefore needed.

The Global Streamflow Indices and Metadata archive (G-SIM): A compilation of global streamflow time series indices and meta-data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Do, Hong; Gudmundsson, Lukas; Leonard, Michael; Westra, Seth; Senerivatne, Sonia

2017-04-01

In-situ observations of daily streamflow with global coverage are a crucial asset for understanding large-scale freshwater resources which are an essential component of the Earth system and a prerequisite for societal development. Here we present the Global Streamflow Indices and Metadata archive (G-SIM), a collection indices derived from more than 20,000 daily streamflow time series across the globe. These indices are designed to support global assessments of change in wet and dry extremes, and have been compiled from 12 free-to-access online databases (seven national databases and five international collections). The G-SIM archive also includes significant metadata to help support detailed understanding of streamflow dynamics, with the inclusion of drainage area shapefile and many essential catchment properties such as land cover type, soil and topographic characteristics. The automated procedure in data handling and quality control of the project makes G-SIM a reproducible, extendible archive and can be utilised for many purposes in large-scale hydrology. Some potential applications include the identification of observational trends in hydrological extremes, the assessment of climate change impacts on streamflow regimes, and the validation of global hydrological models.

Nonlinear optical and multiphoton processes for in situ manipulation and conversion of photons: applications to energy and healthcare (Conference Presentation)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prasad, Paras N.

2017-02-01

Chiral control of nonlinear optical functions holds a great promise for a wide range of applications including optical signal processing, bio-sensing and chiral bio-imaging. In chiral polyfluorene thin films, we demonstrated extremely large chiral nonlinearity. The physics of manipulating excitation dynamics for photon transformation will be discussed, along with nanochemistry control of upconversion in hierarchically built organic chromophore coupled-core-multiple shell nanostructures which enable introduce new, organic-inorganic energy transfer routes for broadband light harvesting and increased upconversion efficiency via multistep cascaded energy transfer. We are pursuing the applications of photon conversion technology in IR harvesting for photovoltaics, high contrast bioimaging, photoacoustic imaging, photodynamic therapy, and optogenetics. An important application is in Brain research and Neurophotonics for functional mapping and modulation of brain activities. Another new direction pursued is magnetic field control of light in in a chiral polymer nanocomposite to achieve large magneto-optic coefficient which can enable sensing of extremely weak magnetic field due to brain waves. Finally, we will consider the thought provoking concept of utilizing photons to quantify, through magneto-optics, and augment - through nanoptogenetics, the cognitive states, thus paving the path way to a quantified human paradigm.

Application of a fast skyline computation algorithm for serendipitous searching problems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koizumi, Kenichi; Hiraki, Kei; Inaba, Mary

2018-02-01

Skyline computation is a method of extracting interesting entries from a large population with multiple attributes. These entries, called skyline or Pareto optimal entries, are known to have extreme characteristics that cannot be found by outlier detection methods. Skyline computation is an important task for characterizing large amounts of data and selecting interesting entries with extreme features. When the population changes dynamically, the task of calculating a sequence of skyline sets is called continuous skyline computation. This task is known to be difficult to perform for the following reasons: (1) information of non-skyline entries must be stored since they may join the skyline in the future; (2) the appearance or disappearance of even a single entry can change the skyline drastically; (3) it is difficult to adopt a geometric acceleration algorithm for skyline computation tasks with high-dimensional datasets. Our new algorithm called jointed rooted-tree (JR-tree) manages entries using a rooted tree structure. JR-tree delays extend the tree to deep levels to accelerate tree construction and traversal. In this study, we presented the difficulties in extracting entries tagged with a rare label in high-dimensional space and the potential of fast skyline computation in low-latency cell identification technology.

Braided river flow and invasive vegetation dynamics in the Southern Alps, New Zealand.

PubMed

Caruso, Brian S; Edmondson, Laura; Pithie, Callum

2013-07-01

In mountain braided rivers, extreme flow variability, floods and high flow pulses are fundamental elements of natural flow regimes and drivers of floodplain processes, understanding of which is essential for management and restoration. This study evaluated flow dynamics and invasive vegetation characteristics and changes in the Ahuriri River, a free-flowing braided, gravel-bed river in the Southern Alps of New Zealand's South Island. Sixty-seven flow metrics based on indicators of hydrologic alteration and environmental flow components (extreme low flows, low flows, high flow pulses, small floods and large floods) were analyzed using a 48-year flow record. Changes in the areal cover of floodplain and invasive vegetation classes and patch characteristics over 20 years (1991-2011) were quantified using five sets of aerial photographs, and the correlation between flow metrics and cover changes were evaluated. The river exhibits considerable hydrologic variability characteristic of mountain braided rivers, with large variation in floods and other flow regime metrics. The flow regime, including flood and high flow pulses, has variable effects on floodplain invasive vegetation, and creates dynamic patch mosaics that demonstrate the concepts of a shifting mosaic steady state and biogeomorphic succession. As much as 25 % of the vegetation cover was removed by the largest flood on record (570 m(3)/s, ~50-year return period), with preferential removal of lupin and less removal of willow. However, most of the vegetation regenerated and spread relatively quickly after floods. Some flow metrics analyzed were highly correlated with vegetation cover, and key metrics included the peak magnitude of the largest flood, flood frequency, and time since the last flood in the interval between photos. These metrics provided a simple multiple regression model of invasive vegetation cover in the aerial photos evaluated. Our analysis of relationships among flow regimes and invasive vegetation cover has implications for braided rivers impacted by hydroelectric power production, where increases in invasive vegetation cover are typically greater than in unimpacted rivers.

Spatial and temporal dimensions of fire activity in the fire-prone eastern Canadian taiga.

PubMed

Erni, Sandy; Arseneault, Dominique; Parisien, Marc-André; Bégin, Yves

2017-03-01

The forest age mosaic is a fundamental attribute of the North American boreal forest. Given that fires are generally lethal to trees, the time since last fire largely determines the composition and structure of forest stands and landscapes. Although the spatiotemporal dynamics of such mosaics has long been assumed to be random under the overwhelming influence of severe fire weather, no long-term reconstruction of mosaic dynamics has been performed from direct field evidence. In this study, we use fire length as a proxy for fire extent across the fire-prone eastern Canadian taiga and systematically reconstruct the spatiotemporal variability of fire extent and fire intervals, as well as the resulting forest age along a 340-km transect for the 1840-2013 time period. Our results indicate an extremely active fire regime over the last two centuries, with an overall burn rate of 2.1% of the land area yr -1 , mainly triggered by seasonal anomalies of high temperature and severe drought. However, the rejuvenation of the age mosaic was strongly patterned in space and time due to the intrinsically lower burn rates in wetland-dominated areas and, more importantly, to the much-reduced likelihood of burning of stands up to 50 years postfire. An extremely high burn rate of ~5% yr -1 would have characterized our study region during the last century in the absence of such fuel age effect. Although recent burn rates and fire sizes are within their range of variability of the last 175 years, a particularly severe weather event allowed a 2013 fire to spread across a large fire refuge, thus shifting the abundance of mature and old forest to a historic low. These results provide reference conditions to evaluate the significance and predict the spatiotemporal dynamics and impacts of the currently strengthening fire activity in the North American boreal forest. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Towards improved prediction and mitigation of beach overwash: Terrestrial LiDAR observation of dynamic beach berm erosion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schubert, J. E.; Gallien, T.; Shakeri Majd, M.; Sanders, B. F.

2012-12-01

Globally, over 20 million people currently reside below high tide levels and 200 million are below storm tide levels. Future climate change along with the pressures of urbanization will exacerbate flooding in low lying coastal communities. In Southern California, coastal flooding is triggered by a combination of high tides, storm surge, and waves and recent research suggests that a current 100 year flood event may be experienced on a yearly basis by 2050 due to sea level rise adding a positive offset to return levels. Currently, Southern California coastal communities mitigate the threat of beach overwash, and consequent backshore flooding, with a combination of planning and operational activities such as protective beach berm construction. Theses berms consist of temporary alongshore sand dunes constructed days or hours before an extreme tide or wave event. Hydraulic modeling in urbanized embayments has shown that coastal flooding predictions are extremely sensitive to the presence of coastal protective infrastructure, requiring parameterization of the hard infrastructure elevations at centimetric accuracy. Beach berms are an example of temporary dynamic structures which undergo severe erosion during extreme events and are typically not included in flood risk assessment. Currently, little is known about the erosion process and performance of these structures, which adds uncertainty to flood hazard delineation and flood forecasts. To develop a deeper understanding of beach berm erosion dynamics, three trapezoidal shaped berms, approximately 35 m long and 1.5 m high, were constructed and failure during rising tide conditions was observed using terrestrial laser scanning. Concurrently, real-time kinematic GPS, high-definition time lapse photography, a local tide gauge and wave climate data were collected. The result is a rich and unique observational dataset capturing berm erosion dynamics. This poster highlights the data collected and presents methods for processing and leveraging multi-sensor field observation data. The data obtained from this study will be used to support the development and validation of a numerical beach berm overtopping and overwash model that will allow for improved predictions of coastal flood damage during winter storms and large swells.

Continuous catchment-scale monitoring of geomorphic processes with a 2-D seismological array

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burtin, A.; Hovius, N.; Milodowski, D.; Chen, Y.-G.; Wu, Y.-M.; Lin, C.-W.; Chen, H.

2012-04-01

The monitoring of geomorphic processes during extreme climatic events is of a primary interest to estimate their impact on the landscape dynamics. However, available techniques to survey the surface activity do not provide a relevant time and/or space resolution. Furthermore, these methods hardly investigate the dynamics of the events since their detection are made a posteriori. To increase our knowledge of the landscape evolution and the influence of extreme climatic events on a catchment dynamics, we need to develop new tools and procedures. In many past works, it has been shown that seismic signals are relevant to detect and locate surface processes (landslides, debris flows). During the 2010 typhoon season, we deployed a network of 12 seismometers dedicated to monitor the surface processes of the Chenyoulan catchment in Taiwan. We test the ability of a two dimensional array and small inter-stations distances (~ 11 km) to map in continuous and at a catchment-scale the geomorphic activity. The spectral analysis of continuous records shows a high-frequency (> 1 Hz) seismic energy that is coherent with the occurrence of hillslope and river processes. Using a basic detection algorithm and a location approach running on the analysis of seismic amplitudes, we manage to locate the catchment activity. We mainly observe short-time events (> 300 occurrences) associated with debris falls and bank collapses during daily convective storms, where 69% of occurrences are coherent with the time distribution of precipitations. We also identify a couple of debris flows during a large tropical storm. In contrast, the FORMOSAT imagery does not detect any activity, which somehow reflects the lack of extreme climatic conditions during the experiment. However, high resolution pictures confirm the existence of links between most of geomorphic events and existing structures (landslide scars, gullies...). We thus conclude to an activity that is dominated by reactivation processes. It highlights the major interest of a seismic monitoring since it allows a detailed spatial and temporal survey of events that classic approaches are not able to observe. In the future, dense two dimensional seismological arrays will assess in real-time the landscape dynamics of an entire catchment, tracking sediments from slopes to rivers.

Numerical evidences of universal trap-like aging dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cammarota, Chiara; Marinari, Enzo

2018-04-01

Trap models have been initially proposed as toy models for dynamical relaxation in extremely simplified rough potential energy landscapes. Their importance has recently grown considerably thanks to the discovery that the trap-like aging mechanism directly controls the out-of-equilibrium relaxation processes of more sophisticated spin models, that are considered as the solvable counterpart of real disordered systems. Further establishing the connection between these spin models, out-of-equilibrium behavior and the trap like aging mechanism could shed new light on the properties, which are still largely mysterious, for the activated out-of-equilibrium dynamics of disordered systems. In this work we discuss numerical evidence based on the computations of the permanence times of an emergent trap-like aging behavior in a variety of very simple disordered models—developed from the trap model paradigm. Our numerical results are backed by analytic derivations and heuristic discussions. Such exploration reveals some of the tricks needed to reveal the trap behavior in spite of the occurrence of secondary processes, of the existence of dynamical correlations and of strong finite system’s size effects.

Experiments on shells under base excitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pellicano, Francesco; Barbieri, Marco; Zippo, Antonio; Strozzi, Matteo

2016-05-01

The aim of the present paper is a deep experimental investigation of the nonlinear dynamics of circular cylindrical shells. The specific problem regards the response of circular cylindrical shells subjected to base excitation. The shells are mounted on a shaking table that furnishes a vertical vibration parallel to the cylinder axis; a heavy rigid disk is mounted on the top of the shells. The base vibration induces a rigid body motion, which mainly causes huge inertia forces exerted by the top disk to the shell. In-plane stresses due to the aforementioned inertias give rise to impressively large vibration on the shell. An extremely violent dynamic phenomenon suddenly appears as the excitation frequency varies up and down close to the linear resonant frequency of the first axisymmetric mode. The dynamics are deeply investigated by varying excitation level and frequency. Moreover, in order to generalise the investigation, two different geometries are analysed. The paper furnishes a complete dynamic scenario by means of: (i) amplitude frequency diagrams, (ii) bifurcation diagrams, (iii) time histories and spectra, (iv) phase portraits and Poincaré maps. It is to be stressed that all the results presented here are experimental.

Towards denoising XMCD movies of fast magnetization dynamics using extended Kalman filter.

PubMed

Kopp, M; Harmeling, S; Schütz, G; Schölkopf, B; Fähnle, M

2015-01-01

The Kalman filter is a well-established approach to get information on the time-dependent state of a system from noisy observations. It was developed in the context of the Apollo project to see the deviation of the true trajectory of a rocket from the desired trajectory. Afterwards it was applied to many different systems with small numbers of components of the respective state vector (typically about 10). In all cases the equation of motion for the state vector was known exactly. The fast dissipative magnetization dynamics is often investigated by x-ray magnetic circular dichroism movies (XMCD movies), which are often very noisy. In this situation the number of components of the state vector is extremely large (about 10(5)), and the equation of motion for the dissipative magnetization dynamics (especially the values of the material parameters of this equation) is not well known. In the present paper it is shown by theoretical considerations that - nevertheless - there is no principle problem for the use of the Kalman filter to denoise XMCD movies of fast dissipative magnetization dynamics. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Construction of a stochastic model of track geometry irregularities and validation through experimental measurements of dynamic loading

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Panunzio, Alfonso M.; Puel, G.; Cottereau, R.; Simon, S.; Quost, X.

2017-03-01

This paper describes the construction of a stochastic model of urban railway track geometry irregularities, based on experimental data. The considered irregularities are track gauge, superelevation, horizontal and vertical curvatures. They are modelled as random fields whose statistical properties are extracted from a large set of on-track measurements of the geometry of an urban railway network. About 300-1000 terms are used in the Karhunen-Loève/Polynomial Chaos expansions to represent the random fields with appropriate accuracy. The construction of the random fields is then validated by comparing on-track measurements of the contact forces and numerical dynamics simulations for different operational conditions (train velocity and car load) and horizontal layouts (alignment, curve). The dynamics simulations are performed both with and without randomly generated geometrical irregularities for the track. The power spectrum densities obtained from the dynamics simulations with the model of geometrical irregularities compare extremely well with those obtained from the experimental contact forces. Without irregularities, the spectrum is 10-50 dB too low.

Ultrafast carrier dynamics and third-order nonlinear optical properties of AgInS2/ZnS nanocrystals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Kuai; Yang, Yang; Wang, Junzhong; Tang, Xiaosheng; Xu, Qing-Hua; Wang, Guo Ping

2018-06-01

Broad photoluminescence (PL) emission, a large Stokes shift and extremely long-lived radiative lifetimes are the characteristics of ternary I–III–VI semiconductor nanocrystals (NCs), such as CuInS2 and AgInS2. However, the lack of understanding regarding the intriguing PL mechanisms and photo-carrier dynamics limits their further applications. Here, AgInS2 and AgInS2/ZnS NCs were chemically synthesized and their carrier dynamics were studied by time-resolved PL spectroscopy. The results demonstrated that the surface defect state, which contributed dominantly to the non-radiative decay processes, was effectively passivated through ZnS alloying. Femtosecond transient absorption spectroscopy was also used to investigate the carrier dynamics, revealing the electron storage at the surface state and donor state. Furthermore, the two photon absorption properties of AgInS2 and AgInS2/ZnS NCs were measured using an open-aperture Z-scan technique. The improved third-order nonlinear susceptibility {χ }(3) of AgInS2 through ZnS alloying demonstrates potential application in two photon PL biological imaging.

Bayesian estimation of extreme flood quantiles using a rainfall-runoff model and a stochastic daily rainfall generator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Costa, Veber; Fernandes, Wilson

2017-11-01

Extreme flood estimation has been a key research topic in hydrological sciences. Reliable estimates of such events are necessary as structures for flood conveyance are continuously evolving in size and complexity and, as a result, their failure-associated hazards become more and more pronounced. Due to this fact, several estimation techniques intended to improve flood frequency analysis and reducing uncertainty in extreme quantile estimation have been addressed in the literature in the last decades. In this paper, we develop a Bayesian framework for the indirect estimation of extreme flood quantiles from rainfall-runoff models. In the proposed approach, an ensemble of long daily rainfall series is simulated with a stochastic generator, which models extreme rainfall amounts with an upper-bounded distribution function, namely, the 4-parameter lognormal model. The rationale behind the generation model is that physical limits for rainfall amounts, and consequently for floods, exist and, by imposing an appropriate upper bound for the probabilistic model, more plausible estimates can be obtained for those rainfall quantiles with very low exceedance probabilities. Daily rainfall time series are converted into streamflows by routing each realization of the synthetic ensemble through a conceptual hydrologic model, the Rio Grande rainfall-runoff model. Calibration of parameters is performed through a nonlinear regression model, by means of the specification of a statistical model for the residuals that is able to accommodate autocorrelation, heteroscedasticity and nonnormality. By combining the outlined steps in a Bayesian structure of analysis, one is able to properly summarize the resulting uncertainty and estimating more accurate credible intervals for a set of flood quantiles of interest. The method for extreme flood indirect estimation was applied to the American river catchment, at the Folsom dam, in the state of California, USA. Results show that most floods, including exceptionally large non-systematic events, were reasonably estimated with the proposed approach. In addition, by accounting for uncertainties in each modeling step, one is able to obtain a better understanding of the influential factors in large flood formation dynamics.

Evolution of Precipitation Extremes in Three Large Ensembles of Climate Simulations - Impact of Spatial and Temporal Resolutions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martel, J. L.; Brissette, F.; Mailhot, A.; Wood, R. R.; Ludwig, R.; Frigon, A.; Leduc, M.; Turcotte, R.

2017-12-01

Recent studies indicate that the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation will increase in future climate due to global warming. In this study, we compare annual maxima precipitation series from three large ensembles of climate simulations at various spatial and temporal resolutions. The first two are at the global scale: the Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2) 50-member large ensemble (CanESM2-LE) at a 2.8° resolution and the Community Earth System Model (CESM1) 40-member large ensemble (CESM1-LE) at a 1° resolution. The third ensemble is at the regional scale over both Eastern North America and Europe: the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM5) 50-member large ensemble (CRCM5-LE) at a 0.11° resolution, driven at its boundaries by the CanESM-LE. The CRCM5-LE is a new ensemble issued from the ClimEx project (http://www.climex-project.org), a Québec-Bavaria collaboration. Using these three large ensembles, change in extreme precipitations over the historical (1980-2010) and future (2070-2100) periods are investigated. This results in 1 500 (30 years x 50 members for CanESM2-LE and CRCM5-LE) and 1200 (30 years x 40 members for CESM1-LE) simulated years over both the historical and future periods. Using these large datasets, the empirical daily (and sub-daily for CRCM5-LE) extreme precipitation quantiles for large return periods ranging from 2 to 100 years are computed. Results indicate that daily extreme precipitations generally will increase over most land grid points of both domains according to the three large ensembles. Regarding the CRCM5-LE, the increase in sub-daily extreme precipitations will be even more important than the one observed for daily extreme precipitations. Considering that many public infrastructures have lifespans exceeding 75 years, the increase in extremes has important implications on service levels of water infrastructures and public safety.

Dynamic fault rupture model of the 2008 Iwate-Miyagi Nairiku earthquake, Japan; Role of rupture velocity changes on extreme ground motions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pulido Hernandez, N. E.; Dalguer Gudiel, L. A.; Aoi, S.

2009-12-01

The Iwate-Miyagi Nairiku earthquake, a reverse earthquake occurred in the southern Iwate prefecture Japan (2008/6/14), produced the largest peak ground acceleration recorded to date (4g) (Aoi et al. 2008), at the West Ichinoseki (IWTH25), KiK-net strong motion station of NIED. This station which is equipped with surface and borehole accelerometers (GL-260), also recorded very high peak accelerations up to 1g at the borehole level, despite being located in a rock site. From comparison of spectrograms of the observed surface and borehole records at IWTH25, Pulido et. al (2008) identified two high frequency (HF) ground motion events located at 4.5s and 6.3s originating at the source, which likely derived in the extreme observed accelerations of 3.9g and 3.5g at IWTH25. In order to understand the generation mechanism of these HF events we performed a dynamic fault rupture model of the Iwate-Miyagi Nairiku earthquake by using the Support Operator Rupture Dynamics (SORD) code, (Ely et al., 2009). SORD solves the elastodynamic equation using a generalized finite difference method that can utilize meshes of arbitrary structure and is capable of handling geometries appropriate to thrust earthquakes. Our spontaneous dynamic rupture model of the Iwate-Miyagi Nairiku earthquake is governed by the simple slip weakening friction law. The dynamic parameters, stress drop, strength excess and critical slip weakening distance are estimated following the procedure described in Pulido and Dalguer (2009) [PD09]. These parameters develop earthquake rupture consistent with the final slip obtained by kinematic source inversion of near source strong ground motion recordings. The dislocation model of this earthquake is characterized by a patch of large slip located ~7 km south of the hypocenter (Suzuki et al. 2009). Our results for the calculation of stress drop follow a similar pattern. Using the rupture times obtained from the dynamic model of the Iwate-Miyagi Nairiku earthquake we estimated the rupture velocity as well as rupture velocity changes distribution across the fault plane based on the procedure proposed by PD09. Our results show that rupture velocity has strong variations concentrated in small patches within large slip areas (asperities). Using this dynamic model we performed the strong motion simulation at the IWTH25 borehole. We obtained that this model is able to reproduce the two HF events observed in the strong motion data. Our preliminary results suggest that the extreme acceleration pulses were induced by two strong rupture velocity acceleration events at the rupture front. References Aoi, S., T. Kunugi, and H. Fujiwara, 2008, Science, 322, 727-730. Ely, G. P., S. M. Day, and J.-B. Minster (2009), Geophys. J. Int., 177(3), 1140-1150. Pulido, N., S. Aoi, and W. Suzuki (2008), AGU Fall meeting, S33C-02. Pulido, N., and L.A. Dalguer, (2009). Estimation of the high-frequency radiation of the 2000 Tottori (Japan) earthquake based on a dynamic model of fault rupture: Application to the strong ground motion simulation, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am. 99(4), 2305-2322. Suzuki, W., S. Aoi, and H. Sekiguchi, (2009), Bull. Seism. Soc. Am. (Accepted).

Microchannel plate detector technology potential for LUVOIR and HabEx

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Siegmund, O. H. W.; Ertley, C.; Vallerga, J. V.; Schindhelm, E. R.; Harwit, A.; Fleming, B. T.; France, K. C.; Green, J. C.; McCandliss, S. R.; Harris, W. M.

2017-08-01

Microchannel plate (MCP) detectors have been the detector of choice for ultraviolet (UV) instruments onboard many NASA missions. These detectors have many advantages, including high spatial resolution (<20 μm), photon counting, radiation hardness, large formats (up to 20 cm), and ability for curved focal plane matching. Novel borosilicate glass MCPs with atomic layer deposition combine extremely low backgrounds, high strength, and tunable secondary electron yield. GaN and combinations of bialkali/alkali halide photocathodes show promise for broadband, higher quantum efficiency. Cross-strip anodes combined with compact ASIC readout electronics enable high spatial resolution over large formats with high dynamic range. The technology readiness levels of these technologies are each being advanced through research grants for laboratory testing and rocket flights. Combining these capabilities would be ideal for UV instruments onboard the Large UV/Optical/IR Surveyor (LUVOIR) and the Habitable Exoplanet Imaging Mission (HABEX) concepts currently under study for NASA's Astrophysics Decadal Survey.

From rotating atomic rings to quantum Hall states.

PubMed

Roncaglia, M; Rizzi, M; Dalibard, J

2011-01-01

Considerable efforts are currently devoted to the preparation of ultracold neutral atoms in the strongly correlated quantum Hall regime. However, the necessary angular momentum is very large and in experiments with rotating traps this means spinning frequencies extremely near to the deconfinement limit; consequently, the required control on parameters turns out to be too stringent. Here we propose instead to follow a dynamic path starting from the gas initially confined in a rotating ring. The large moment of inertia of the ring-shaped fluid facilitates the access to large angular momenta, corresponding to giant vortex states. The trapping potential is then adiabatically transformed into a harmonic confinement, which brings the interacting atomic gas in the desired quantum-Hall regime. We provide numerical evidence that for a broad range of initial angular frequencies, the giant-vortex state is adiabatically connected to the bosonic ν = 1/2 Laughlin state.

The Cora Lake Shear Zone: Strain Localization in an Ultramylonitic, Deep Crustal Shear Zone, Athabasca Granulite Terrain, Western Churchill Province, Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Regan, S.; Williams, M. L.; Mahan, K. H.; Orlandini, O. F.; Jercinovic, M. J.; Leslie, S. R.; Holland, M.

2012-12-01

Ultramylonitic shear zones typically involve intense strain localization, and when developed over large regions can introduce considerable heterogeneity into the crust. The Cora Lake shear zone (CLsz) displays several 10's to 100's of meters-wide zones of ultramylonite distributed throughout its full 3-5 km mylonitized width. Detailed mapping, petrography, thermobarometry, and in-situ monazite geochronology suggest that it formed during the waning phases of granulite grade metamorphism and deformation, within one of North America's largest exposures of polydeformed lower continental crust. Anastomosing zones of ultramylonite contain recrystallized grain-sizes approaching the micron scale and might appear to suggest lower temperature mylonitization. However, feldspar and even clinopyroxene are dynamically recrystallized, and quantitative thermobarometry of syn-deformational assemblages indicate high P and T conditions ranging from 0.9 -10.6 GPa and 775-850 °C. Even at these high T's, dynamic recovery and recrystallization were extremely limited. Rocks with low modal quartz have extremely small equilibrium volumes. This is likely the result of inefficient diffusion, which is further supported by the unannealed nature of the crystals. Local carbonate veins suggests that H2O poor, CO2 rich conditions may have aided in the preservation of fine grain sizes, and may have inhibited dynamic recovery and recrystallization. The Cora Lake shear zone is interpreted to have been relatively strong and to have hardened during progressive deformation. Garnet is commonly fractured perpendicular to host rock fabric, and statically replaced by both biotite and muscovite. Pseudotachylite, with the same sense of shear, occurs in several ultramylonitized mafic granulites. Thus, cataclasis and frictional melt are interpreted to have been produced in the lower continental crust, not during later reactivation. We suggest that strengthening of rheologically stiffer lithologies led to extreme localization, and potentially earthquakes in quartz-absent hardened lithologies. Cora Lake shearing represents the culmination of a deformation trend of increasing strength, strain partitioning, and localization within a polydeformed, strengthened lower continental crust.

Chaotic dynamical aperture

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lee, S.Y.; Tepikian, S.

1985-01-01

Nonlinear magnetic forces become more important for particles in the modern large accelerators. These nonlinear elements are introduced either intentionally to control beam dynamics or by uncontrollable random errors. Equations of motion in the nonlinear Hamiltonian are usually non-integrable. Because of the nonlinear part of the Hamiltonian, the tune diagram of accelerators is a jungle. Nonlinear magnet multipoles are important in keeping the accelerator operation point in the safe quarter of the hostile jungle of resonant tunes. Indeed, all the modern accelerator designs have taken advantages of nonlinear mechanics. On the other hand, the effect of the uncontrollable random multipolesmore » should be evaluated carefully. A powerful method of studying the effect of these nonlinear multipoles is using a particle tracking calculation, where a group of test particles are tracing through these magnetic multipoles in the accelerator hundreds to millions of turns in order to test the dynamical aperture of the machine. These methods are extremely useful in the design of a large accelerator such as SSC, LEP, HERA and RHIC. These calculations unfortunately take a tremendous amount of computing time. In this review the method of determining chaotic orbit and applying the method to nonlinear problems in accelerator physics is discussed. We then discuss the scaling properties and effect of random sextupoles.« less

Mass Transport in the Warm, Dense Matter and High-Energy Density Regimes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kress, J. D.; Burakovsky, L.; Ticknor, C.; Collins, L. A.; Lambert, F.

2011-10-01

Large-scale hydrodynamical simulations of fluids and plasmas under extreme conditions require knowledge of certain microscopic properties such as diffusion and viscosity in addition to the equation-of-state. To determine these dynamical properties, we employ quantum molecular dynamical (MD) simulations on large samples of atoms. The method has several advantages: 1) static, dynamical, and optical properties are produced consistently from the same simulations, and 2) mixture properties arise in a natural way since all intra- and inter-particle interactions are properly represented. We utilize two forms of density functional theory: 1) Kohn-Sham (KS-DFT) and 2) orbital-free (OF-DFT). KS-DFT is computationally intense due to its reliance on an orbital representation. As the temperature rises, the Thomas-Fermi approximation in OF-DFT begins to represent accurately the density functional, and provides an efficient and systematic means for extending the quantum simulations to very hot conditions. We have performed KS-DFT and OF-DFT calculations of the self-diffusion, mutual diffusion and shear viscosity for Al, Li, H, and LiH. We examine trends in these quantities and compare to more approximate forms such as the one-component plasma model. We also determine the validity of mixing rules that combine the properties of pure species into a composite result.

Structure and Dynamics of the 2009 July 22 Eclipse White-light Corona

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pasachoff, J. M.; Rušin, V.; Saniga, M.; Druckmüllerová, H.; Babcock, B. A.

2011-11-01

The white-light corona (WLC) during the total solar eclipse of 2009 July 22 was observed by several teams in the Moon's shadow stretching from India and China across the Pacific Ocean with its many isolated islands. We present a comparison of the WLC as observed by eclipse teams located in China (Shanghai region) and on the Enewetak Atoll in the Marshall Islands, with observations taken 112 minutes apart, combined with near-simultaneous space observations. The eclipse was observed at the beginning of solar cycle 24, during a deep solar minimum (officially estimated as 2008 December according to the smoothed sunspot number, but very extended). The solar corona shows several different types of features (coronal holes, polar rays, helmet streamers, faint loops, voids, etc.), though it was extremely sparse in streamers as shown from Large-Angle Spectroscopic Coronagraph data. No large-scale dynamical phenomena were seen when comparing the observations from the two sites, confirming that the corona was quiescent. We measure a Ludendorff flattening coefficient of 0.238, typical of solar minimum.

Drought-induced shift of a forest–woodland ecotone: Rapid landscape response to climate variation

PubMed Central

Allen, Craig D.; Breshears, David D.

1998-01-01

In coming decades, global climate changes are expected to produce large shifts in vegetation distributions at unprecedented rates. These shifts are expected to be most rapid and extreme at ecotones, the boundaries between ecosystems, particularly those in semiarid landscapes. However, current models do not adequately provide for such rapid effects—particularly those caused by mortality—largely because of the lack of data from field studies. Here we report the most rapid landscape-scale shift of a woody ecotone ever documented: in northern New Mexico in the 1950s, the ecotone between semiarid ponderosa pine forest and piñon–juniper woodland shifted extensively (2 km or more) and rapidly (<5 years) through mortality of ponderosa pines in response to a severe drought. This shift has persisted for 40 years. Forest patches within the shift zone became much more fragmented, and soil erosion greatly accelerated. The rapidity and the complex dynamics of the persistent shift point to the need to represent more accurately these dynamics, especially the mortality factor, in assessments of the effects of climate change. PMID:9843976

Drought-induced shift of a forest-woodland ecotone: Rapid landscape response to climate variation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Allen, Craig D.; Breshears, David D.

1998-01-01

In coming decades, global climate changes are expected to produce large shifts in vegetation distributions at unprecedented rates. These shifts are expected to be most rapid and extreme at ecotones, the boundaries between ecosystems, particularly those in semiarid landscapes. However, current models do not adequately provide for such rapid effects—particularly those caused by mortality—largely because of the lack of data from field studies. Here we report the most rapid landscape-scale shift of a woody ecotone ever documented: in northern New Mexico in the 1950s, the ecotone between semiarid ponderosa pine forest and piñon–juniper woodland shifted extensively (2 km or more) and rapidly (<5 years) through mortality of ponderosa pines in response to a severe drought. This shift has persisted for 40 years. Forest patches within the shift zone became much more fragmented, and soil erosion greatly accelerated. The rapidity and the complex dynamics of the persistent shift point to the need to represent more accurately these dynamics, especially the mortality factor, in assessments of the effects of climate change.

Exploring Protein-Peptide Recognition Pathways Using a Supervised Molecular Dynamics Approach.

PubMed

Salmaso, Veronica; Sturlese, Mattia; Cuzzolin, Alberto; Moro, Stefano

2017-04-04

Peptides have gained increased interest as therapeutic agents during recent years. The high specificity and relatively low toxicity of peptide drugs derive from their extremely tight binding to their targets. Indeed, understanding the molecular mechanism of protein-peptide recognition has important implications in the fields of biology, medicine, and pharmaceutical sciences. Even if crystallography and nuclear magnetic resonance are offering valuable atomic insights into the assembling of the protein-peptide complexes, the mechanism of their recognition and binding events remains largely unclear. In this work we report, for the first time, the use of a supervised molecular dynamics approach to explore the possible protein-peptide binding pathways within a timescale reduced up to three orders of magnitude compared with classical molecular dynamics. The better and faster understating of the protein-peptide recognition pathways could be very beneficial in enlarging the applicability of peptide-based drug design approaches in several biotechnological and pharmaceutical fields. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Extreme-value dependence: An application to exchange rate markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fernandez, Viviana

2007-04-01

Extreme value theory (EVT) focuses on modeling the tail behavior of a loss distribution using only extreme values rather than the whole data set. For a sample of 10 countries with dirty/free float regimes, we investigate whether paired currencies exhibit a pattern of asymptotic dependence. That is, whether an extremely large appreciation or depreciation in the nominal exchange rate of one country might transmit to another. In general, after controlling for volatility clustering and inertia in returns, we do not find evidence of extreme-value dependence between paired exchange rates. However, for asymptotic-independent paired returns, we find that tail dependency of exchange rates is stronger under large appreciations than under large depreciations.

How does Interactive Chemistry Influence the Representation of Stratosphere-Troposphere Coupling in a Climate Model?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haase, S.; Matthes, K. B.

2017-12-01

Changes in stratospheric ozone can trigger tropospheric circulation changes. In the Southern hemisphere (SH), the observed shift of the Southern Annular Mode was attributed to the observed trend in lower stratospheric ozone. In the Northern Hemisphere (NH), a recent study showed that extremely low stratospheric ozone conditions during spring produce robust anomalies in the troposphere (zonal wind, temperature and precipitation). This could only be reproduced in a coupled chemistry climate model indicating that chemical-dynamical feedbacks are also important on the NH. To further investigate the importance of interactive chemistry for surface climate, we conducted a set of experiments using NCAR's Community Earth System Model (CESM1) with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) as the atmosphere component. WACCM contains a fully interactive stratospheric chemistry module in its standard configuration. It also allows for an alternative configuration, referred to as SC-WACCM, in which the chemistry (O3, NO, O, O2, CO2 and chemical and shortwave heating rates) is specified as a 2D field in the radiation code. A comparison of the interactive vs. the specified chemistry version enables us to evaluate the relative importance of interactive chemistry by systematically inhibiting the feedbacks between chemistry and dynamics. To diminish the effect of temporal interpolation when prescribing ozone, we use daily resolved zonal mean ozone fields for the specified chemistry run. Here, we investigate the differences in stratosphere-troposphere coupling between the interactive and specified chemistry simulations for the mainly chemically driven SH as well as for the mainly dynamically driven NH. We will especially consider years that are characterized by extremely low stratospheric ozone on the one hand and by large dynamical disturbances, i.e. Sudden Stratospheric Warmings, on the other hand.

Satellite-enhanced dynamical downscaling for the analysis of extreme events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nunes, Ana M. B.

2016-09-01

The use of regional models in the downscaling of general circulation models provides a strategy to generate more detailed climate information. In that case, boundary-forcing techniques can be useful to maintain the large-scale features from the coarse-resolution global models in agreement with the inner modes of the higher-resolution regional models. Although those procedures might improve dynamics, downscaling via regional modeling still aims for better representation of physical processes. With the purpose of improving dynamics and physical processes in regional downscaling of global reanalysis, the Regional Spectral Model—originally developed at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction—employs a newly reformulated scale-selective bias correction, together with the 3-hourly assimilation of the satellite-based precipitation estimates constructed from the Climate Prediction Center morphing technique. The two-scheme technique for the dynamical downscaling of global reanalysis can be applied in analyses of environmental disasters and risk assessment, with hourly outputs, and resolution of about 25 km. Here the satellite-enhanced dynamical downscaling added value is demonstrated in simulations of the first reported hurricane in the western South Atlantic Ocean basin through comparisons with global reanalyses and satellite products available in ocean areas.

From phase transitions to the topological renaissance. Comment on "Topodynamics of metastable brains" by Arturo Tozzi et al.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Somogyvári, Zoltán; Érdi, Péter

2017-07-01

The neural topodynamics theory of Tozzi et al. [13] has two main foci: metastable brain dynamics and the topological approach based on the Borsuk-Ulam theorem (BUT). Briefly, metastable brain dynamics theory hypothesizes that temporary stable synchronization and desynchronization of large number of individual dynamical systems, formed by local neural circuits, are responsible for coding of complex concepts in the brain and sudden changes of these synchronization patterns correspond to operational steps. But what dynamical network could form the substrate for this metastable dynamics, capable of entering into a combinatorially high number of metastable synchronization patterns and exhibit rapid transient changes between them? The general problem is related to the discrimination between ;Black Swans; and ;Dragon Kings;. While BSs are related to the theory of self-organized criticality, and suggests that high-impact extreme events are unpredictable, Dragon-kings are associated with the occurrence of a phase transition, whose emergent organization is based on intermittent criticality [9]. Widening the limits of predictability is one of the big open problems in the theory and practice of complex systems (Sect. 9.3 of Érdi [2]).

Coarse-grained simulations of cis- and trans-polybutadiene: A bottom-up approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lemarchand, Claire A.; Couty, Marc; Rousseau, Bernard

2017-02-01

We apply the dissipative particle dynamics strategy proposed by Hijón et al. [Faraday Discuss. 144, 301-322 (2010)] and based on an exact derivation of the generalized Langevin equation to cis- and trans-1,4-polybutadiene. We prove that it is able to reproduce not only the structural but also the dynamical properties of these polymers without any fitting parameter. A systematic study of the effect of the level of coarse-graining is done on cis-1,4-polybutadiene. We show that as the level of coarse-graining increases, the dynamical properties are better and better reproduced while the structural properties deviate more and more from those calculated in molecular dynamics (MD) simulations. We suggest two reasons for this behavior: the Markovian approximation is better satisfied as the level of coarse-graining increases, while the pair-wise approximation neglects important contributions due to the relative orientation of the beads at large levels of coarse-graining. Finally, we highlight a possible limit of the Markovian approximation: the fact that in constrained simulations, in which the centers-of-mass of the beads are kept constant, the bead rotational dynamics become extremely slow.

Can Dynamic Global Vegetation Models Reproduce Satellite Observed Extreme Browning and Greening Events in Vegetation Productivity?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Eck, C. M.; Morfopoulos, C.; Betts, R. A.; Chang, J.; Ciais, P.; Friedlingstein, P.; Regnier, P. A. G.

2016-12-01

The frequency and severity of extreme climate events such as droughts, extreme precipitation and heatwaves are expected to increase in our changing climate. These extreme climate events will have an effect on vegetation either by enhanced or reduced productivity. Subsequently, this can have a substantial impact on the terrestrial carbon sink and thus the global carbon cycle, especially as extreme climate events are expected to increase in frequency and severity. Connecting observational datasets with modelling studies provides new insights into these climate-vegetation interactions. This study aims to compare extremes in vegetation productivity as derived from observations with that of Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs). In this case GIMMS-NDVI 3g is selected as the observational dataset and both JULES (Joint UK Land Environment Simulator) and ORCHIDEE (Organising Carbon and Hydrology In Dynamic Ecosystems) as the DGVMs. Both models are forced with PGFv2 Global Meteorological Forcing Dataset according to the ISI-MIP2 protocol for historical runs. Extremes in vegetation productivity are the focal point, which are identified as NDVI anomalies below the 10th percentile or above the 90th percentile during the growing season, referred to as browning or greening events respectively. The monthly NDVI dataset GIMMS-NDVI 3g is used to obtain the location in time and space of the vegetation extremes. The global GIMMS-NDVI 3g dataset has been subdivided into IPCC's SREX-regions for which the NDVI anomalies are calculated and the extreme thresholds are determined. With this information we can identify the location in time and space of the browning and greening events in remotely-sensed vegetation productivity. The same procedure is applied to the modelled Gross Primary Productivity (GPP) allowing a comparison between the spatial and temporal occurrence of the browning and greening events in the observational dataset and the models' output. The capacity of the models to catch observed extremes in vegetation productivity is assessed and compared. Factors contributing to observed and modelled vegetation browning/greening extremes are analysed. The results of this study provide a stepping stone to modelling future extremes in vegetation productivity.

Metastability for discontinuous dynamical systems under Lévy noise: Case study on Amazonian Vegetation.

PubMed

Serdukova, Larissa; Zheng, Yayun; Duan, Jinqiao; Kurths, Jürgen

2017-08-24

For the tipping elements in the Earth's climate system, the most important issue to address is how stable is the desirable state against random perturbations. Extreme biotic and climatic events pose severe hazards to tropical rainforests. Their local effects are extremely stochastic and difficult to measure. Moreover, the direction and intensity of the response of forest trees to such perturbations are unknown, especially given the lack of efficient dynamical vegetation models to evaluate forest tree cover changes over time. In this study, we consider randomness in the mathematical modelling of forest trees by incorporating uncertainty through a stochastic differential equation. According to field-based evidence, the interactions between fires and droughts are a more direct mechanism that may describe sudden forest degradation in the south-eastern Amazon. In modeling the Amazonian vegetation system, we include symmetric α-stable Lévy perturbations. We report results of stability analysis of the metastable fertile forest state. We conclude that even a very slight threat to the forest state stability represents L´evy noise with large jumps of low intensity, that can be interpreted as a fire occurring in a non-drought year. During years of severe drought, high-intensity fires significantly accelerate the transition between a forest and savanna state.

Optical and Nonlinear Optical Response of Light Sensor Thin Films

PubMed Central

Liu, Huimin; Rua, Armando; Vasquez, Omar; Vikhnin, Valentin S.; Fernandez, Felix E.; Fonseca, Luis F.; Resto, Oscar; Weisz, Svi Z.

2005-01-01

For potential ultrafast optical sensor application, both VO2 thin films and nanocomposite crystal-Si enriched SiO2 thin films grown on fused quartz substrates were successfully prepared using pulsed laser deposition (PLD) and RF co-sputtering techniques. In photoluminescence (PL) measurement c-Si/SiO2 film contains nanoparticles of crystal Si exhibits strong red emission with the band maximum ranging from 580 to 750 nm. With ultrashort pulsed laser excitation all films show extremely intense and ultrafast nonlinear optical (NLO) response. The recorded holography from all these thin films in a degenerate-four-wave-mixing configuration shows extremely large third-order response. For VO2 thin films, an optically induced semiconductor-to-metal phase transition (PT) immediately occurred upon laser excitation. it accompanied. It turns out that the fast excited state dynamics was responsible to the induced PT. For c-Si/SiO2 film, its NLO response comes from the contribution of charge carriers created by laser excitation in conduction band of the c-Si nanoparticles. It was verified by introducing Eu3+ which is often used as a probe sensing the environment variations. It turns out that the entire excited state dynamical process associated with the creation, movement and trapping of the charge carriers has a characteristic 500 ps duration.

Productivity responses of a widespread marine piscivore, Gadus morhua, to oceanic thermal extremes and trends.

PubMed

Mantzouni, Irene; MacKenzie, Brian R

2010-06-22

Climate change will have major consequences for population dynamics and life histories of marine biota as it progresses in the twenty-first century. These impacts will differ in magnitude and direction for populations within individual marine species whose geographical ranges span large gradients in latitude and temperature. Here we use meta-analytical methods to investigate how recruitment (i.e. the number of new fish produced by spawners in a given year which subsequently grow and survive to become vulnerable to fishing gear) has reacted to temperature fluctuations, and in particular to extremes of temperature, in cod populations throughout the north Atlantic. Temperature has geographically explicit effects on cod recruitment. Impacts differ depending on whether populations are located in the upper (negative effects) or in the lower (positive effects) thermal range. The probabilities of successful year-classes in populations living in warm areas is on average 34 per cent higher in cold compared with warm seasons, whereas opposite patterns exist for populations living in cold areas. These results have implications for cod dynamics, distributions and phenologies under the influence of ocean warming, particularly related to not only changes in the mean temperature, but also its variability (e.g. frequency of exceptionally cold or warm seasons).

The Effect of Shoulder Plyometric Training on Amortization Time and Upper-Extremity Kinematics.

PubMed

Swanik, Kathleen A; Thomas, Stephen J; Struminger, Aaron H; Bliven, Kellie C Huxel; Kelly, John D; Swanik, Charles B

2016-12-01

Plyometric training is credited with providing benefits in performance and dynamic restraint. However, limited prospective data exist quantifying kinematic adaptations such as amortization time, glenohumeral rotation, and scapulothoracic position, which may underlie the efficacy of plyometric training for upper-extremity rehabilitation or performance enhancement. To measure upper-extremity kinematics and plyometric phase times before and after an 8-wk upper-extremity strength- and plyometric-training program. Randomized pretest-posttest design. Research laboratory. 40 recreationally active men (plyometric group, age 20.43 ± 1.40 y, height 180.00 ± 8.80 cm, weight 73.07 ± 7.21 kg; strength group, age 21.95 ± 3.40 y, height 173.98 ± 11.91 cm, weight 74.79 ± 13.55 kg). Participants were randomly assigned to either a strength-training group or a strength- and plyometric-training group. Each participant performed the assigned training for 8 wk. Dynamic and static glenohumeral and scapular-rotation measurements were taken before and after the training programs. Dynamic measurement of scapular rotation and time spent in each plyometric phase (concentric, eccentric, and amortization) during a ball-toss exercise were recorded while the subjects were fitted with an electromagnetic tracking system. Static measures included scapular upward rotation at 3 different glenohumeral-abduction angles, glenohumeral internal rotation, and glenohumeral external rotation. Posttesting showed that both groups significantly decreased the time spent in the amortization, concentric, and eccentric phases of a ball-toss exercise (P < .01). Both groups also exhibited significantly decreased static external rotation and increased dynamic scapular upward rotation after the training period (P < .01). The only difference between the training protocols was that the plyometric-training group exhibited an increase in internal rotation that was not present in the strength-training group (P < .01). These findings support the use of both upper-extremity plyometrics and strength training for reducing commonly identified upper-extremity-injury risk factors and improving upper-extremity performance.

Large dust grains in the wind of VY Canis Majoris

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scicluna, P.; Siebenmorgen, R.; Wesson, R.; Blommaert, J. A. D. L.; Kasper, M.; Voshchinnikov, N. V.; Wolf, S.

2015-12-01

Massive stars live short lives, losing large amounts of mass through their stellar wind. Their mass is a key factor determining how and when they explode as supernovae, enriching the interstellar medium with heavy elements and dust. During the red supergiant phase, mass-loss rates increase prodigiously, but the driving mechanism has proven elusive. Here we present high-contrast optical polarimetric-imaging observations of the extreme red supergiant VY Canis Majoris and its clumpy, dusty, mass-loss envelope, using the new extreme-adaptive-optics instrument SPHERE at the VLT. These observations allow us to make the first direct and unambiguous detection of submicron dust grains in the ejecta; we derive an average grain radius ~0.5 μm, 50 times larger than in the diffuse ISM, large enough to receive significant radiation pressure by photon scattering. We find evidence for varying grain sizes throughout the ejecta, highlighting the dynamical nature of the envelope. Grains with 0.5 μm sizes are likely to reach a safe distance from the eventual explosion of VY Canis Majoris; hence it may inject upwards of 10-2 M⊙ of dust into the ISM. Based on observations made with European Southern Observatory (ESO) telescopes at the La Silla Paranal Observatory under program 60.A-9368(A).Appendix A is available in electronic form at http://www.aanda.org

RXTE Observation of Cygnus X-1: III. Implications for Compton Corona and ADAF Models. Report 3; Implications for Compton Corona and ADAF Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nowak, Michael A.; Wilms, Joern; Vaughan, Brian A.; Dove, James B.; Begelman, Mitchell C.

1999-01-01

We have recently shown that a 'sphere + disk' geometry Compton corona model provides a good description of Rossi X-ray Timing Explorer (RXTE) observations of the hard/low state of Cygnus X-1. Separately, we have analyzed the temporal data provided by RXTE. In this paper we consider the implications of this timing analysis for our best-fit 'sphere + disk' Comptonization models. We focus our attention on the observed Fourier frequency-dependent time delays between hard and soft photons. We consider whether the observed time delays are: created in the disk but are merely reprocessed by the corona; created by differences between the hard and soft photon diffusion times in coronae with extremely large radii; or are due to 'propagation' of disturbances through the corona. We find that the time delays are most likely created directly within the corona; however, it is currently uncertain which specific model is the most likely explanation. Models that posit a large coronal radius [or equivalently, a large Advection Dominated Accretion Flow (ADAF) region] do not fully address all the details of the observed spectrum. The Compton corona models that do address the full spectrum do not contain dynamical information. We show, however, that simple phenomenological propagation models for the observed time delays for these latter models imply extremely slow characteristic propagation speeds within the coronal region.

Rio: a dynamic self-healing services architecture using Jini networking technology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clarke, James B.

2002-06-01

Current mainstream distributed Java architectures offer great capabilities embracing conventional enterprise architecture patterns and designs. These traditional systems provide robust transaction oriented environments that are in large part focused on data and host processors. Typically, these implementations require that an entire application be deployed on every machine that will be used as a compute resource. In order for this to happen, the application is usually taken down, installed and started with all systems in-sync and knowing about each other. Static environments such as these present an extremely difficult environment to setup, deploy and administer.

Long-lived oscillons from asymmetric bubbles: Existence and stability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adib, Artur B.; Gleiser, Marcelo; Almeida, Carlos A.

2002-10-01

The possibility that extremely long-lived, time-dependent, and localized field configurations (``oscillons'') arise during the collapse of asymmetrical bubbles in (2+1)-dimensional φ4 models is investigated. It is found that oscillons can develop from a large spectrum of elliptically deformed bubbles. Moreover, we provide numerical evidence that such oscillons are (a) circularly symmetric and (b) linearly stable against small arbitrary radial and angular perturbations. The latter is based on a dynamical approach designed to investigate the stability of nonintegrable time-dependent configurations that is capable of probing slowly growing instabilities not seen through the usual ``spectral'' method.

KSC-08pd0764

NASA Image and Video Library

2008-03-20

KENNEDY SPACE CENTER, FLA. - In the Astrotech payload processing facility, General Dynamics technicians guide one of twin solar arrays toward NASA's Gamma-Ray Large Area Space Telescope, or GLAST. The telescope will launch aboard a Delta II rocket May 16 from Launch Pad 17-B on Cape Canaveral Air Force Station. A powerful space observatory, the GLAST will explore the most extreme environments in the universe, and answer questions about supermassive black hole systems, pulsars and the origin of cosmic rays. It also will study the mystery of powerful explosions known as gamma-ray bursts. Photo credit: NASA/Chris Rhodes

KSC-08pd0781

NASA Image and Video Library

2008-03-21

CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. --- In the Astrotech payload processing facility, a General Dynamics technician prepares to test the deployment mechanism on the solar arrays on NASA's Gamma-Ray Large Area Space Telescope, or GLAST. The telescope will launch aboard a Delta II rocket May 16 from Launch Pad 17-B on Cape Canaveral Air Force Station. A powerful space observatory, the GLAST will explore the most extreme environments in the universe, and answer questions about supermassive black hole systems, pulsars and the origin of cosmic rays. It also will study the mystery of powerful explosions known as gamma-ray bursts. Photo credit: NASA/Jim Grossmann

KSC-08pd0762

NASA Image and Video Library

2008-03-20

KENNEDY SPACE CENTER, FLA. - In the Astrotech payload processing facility, a General Dynamics technician studies one of twin solar arrays that will be installed on NASA's Gamma-Ray Large Area Space Telescope, or GLAST. The telescope will launch aboard a Delta II rocket May 16 from Launch Pad 17-B on Cape Canaveral Air Force Station. A powerful space observatory, the GLAST will explore the most extreme environments in the universe, and answer questions about supermassive black hole systems, pulsars and the origin of cosmic rays. It also will study the mystery of powerful explosions known as gamma-ray bursts. Photo credit: NASA/Chris Rhodes

KSC-08pd0761

NASA Image and Video Library

2008-03-20

KENNEDY SPACE CENTER, FLA. - In the Astrotech payload processing facility, General Dynamics technicians prepare to install the twin solar arrays on NASA's Gamma-Ray Large Area Space Telescope, or GLAST. The telescope will launch aboard a Delta II rocket May 16 from Launch Pad 17-B on Cape Canaveral Air Force Station. A powerful space observatory, the GLAST will explore the most extreme environments in the universe, and answer questions about supermassive black hole systems, pulsars and the origin of cosmic rays. It also will study the mystery of powerful explosions known as gamma-ray bursts. Photo credit: NASA/Chris Rhodes

KSC-08pd0770

NASA Image and Video Library

2008-03-20

KENNEDY SPACE CENTER, FLA. - In the Astrotech payload processing facility, General Dynamics technicians install the second of twin solar arrays on NASA's Gamma-Ray Large Area Space Telescope, or GLAST. The telescope will launch aboard a Delta II rocket May 16 from Launch Pad 17-B on Cape Canaveral Air Force Station. A powerful space observatory, the GLAST will explore the most extreme environments in the universe, and answer questions about supermassive black hole systems, pulsars and the origin of cosmic rays. It also will study the mystery of powerful explosions known as gamma-ray bursts. Photo credit: NASA/Chris Rhodes

KSC-08pd0763

NASA Image and Video Library

2008-03-20

KENNEDY SPACE CENTER, FLA. - In the Astrotech payload processing facility, General Dynamics technicians lift one of twin solar arrays that will be installed on NASA's Gamma-Ray Large Area Space Telescope, or GLAST. The telescope will launch aboard a Delta II rocket May 16 from Launch Pad 17-B on Cape Canaveral Air Force Station. A powerful space observatory, the GLAST will explore the most extreme environments in the universe, and answer questions about supermassive black hole systems, pulsars and the origin of cosmic rays. It also will study the mystery of powerful explosions known as gamma-ray bursts. Photo credit: NASA/Chris Rhodes

KSC-08pd0782

NASA Image and Video Library

2008-03-21

CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. --- In the Astrotech payload processing facility, a General Dynamics technician prepares to test the deployment mechanism of the solar arrays on NASA's Gamma-Ray Large Area Space Telescope, or GLAST. The telescope will launch aboard a Delta II rocket May 16 from Launch Pad 17-B on Cape Canaveral Air Force Station. A powerful space observatory, the GLAST will explore the most extreme environments in the universe, and answer questions about supermassive black hole systems, pulsars and the origin of cosmic rays. It also will study the mystery of powerful explosions known as gamma-ray bursts. Photo credit: NASA/Jim Grossmann

KSC-08pd0771

NASA Image and Video Library

2008-03-20

CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. --- In the Astrotech payload processing facility, a General Dynamics technician finishes the installation of the second of twin solar arrays on NASA's Gamma-Ray Large Area Space Telescope, or GLAST. The telescope will launch aboard a Delta II rocket May 16 from Launch Pad 17-B on Cape Canaveral Air Force Station. A powerful space observatory, the GLAST will explore the most extreme environments in the universe, and answer questions about supermassive black hole systems, pulsars and the origin of cosmic rays. It also will study the mystery of powerful explosions known as gamma-ray bursts. Photo credit: NASA/Chris Rhodes

KSC-08pd0769

NASA Image and Video Library

2008-03-20

KENNEDY SPACE CENTER, FLA. - In the Astrotech payload processing facility, General Dynamics technicians move the second of twin solar arrays toward NASA's Gamma-Ray Large Area Space Telescope, or GLAST. The telescope will launch aboard a Delta II rocket May 16 from Launch Pad 17-B on Cape Canaveral Air Force Station. A powerful space observatory, the GLAST will explore the most extreme environments in the universe, and answer questions about supermassive black hole systems, pulsars and the origin of cosmic rays. It also will study the mystery of powerful explosions known as gamma-ray bursts. Photo credit: NASA/Chris Rhodes

KSC-08pd0766

NASA Image and Video Library

2008-03-20

KENNEDY SPACE CENTER, FLA. - In the Astrotech payload processing facility, General Dynamics technicians install one of twin solar arrays on NASA's Gamma-Ray Large Area Space Telescope, or GLAST. The telescope will launch aboard a Delta II rocket May 16 from Launch Pad 17-B on Cape Canaveral Air Force Station. A powerful space observatory, the GLAST will explore the most extreme environments in the universe, and answer questions about supermassive black hole systems, pulsars and the origin of cosmic rays. It also will study the mystery of powerful explosions known as gamma-ray bursts. Photo credit: NASA/Chris Rhodes

Modelling the dynamics of a hypothetical Planet X by way of gravitational N-body simulator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cowley, Michael; Hughes, Stephen

2017-03-01

This paper describes a novel activity to model the dynamics of a Jupiter-mass, trans-Neptunian planet of a highly eccentric orbit. Despite a history rooted in modern astronomy, ‘Planet X’, a hypothesised hidden planet lurking in our outer Solar System, has often been touted by conspiracy theorists as the cause of past mass extinction events on Earth, as well as other modern-day doomsday scenarios. Frequently dismissed as pseudoscience by astronomers, these stories continue to draw the attention of the public by provoking mass media coverage. Targeted at junior undergraduate levels, this activity allows students to debunk some of the myths surrounding Planet X by using simulation software to demonstrate that such a large-mass planet with extreme eccentricity would be unable to enter our Solar System unnoticed, let alone maintain a stable orbit.

Macroscopic response to microscopic intrinsic noise in three-dimensional Fisher fronts.

PubMed

Nesic, S; Cuerno, R; Moro, E

2014-10-31

We study the dynamics of three-dimensional Fisher fronts in the presence of density fluctuations. To this end we simulate the Fisher equation subject to stochastic internal noise, and study how the front moves and roughens as a function of the number of particles in the system, N. Our results suggest that the macroscopic behavior of the system is driven by the microscopic dynamics at its leading edge where number fluctuations are dominated by rare events. Contrary to naive expectations, the strength of front fluctuations decays extremely slowly as 1/logN, inducing large-scale fluctuations which we find belong to the one-dimensional Kardar-Parisi-Zhang universality class of kinetically rough interfaces. Hence, we find that there is no weak-noise regime for Fisher fronts, even for realistic numbers of particles in macroscopic systems.

Wildfires, mountain pine beetle and large-scale climate in Northern North America.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Macias Fauria, M.; Johnson, E. A.

2009-05-01

Research on the interactions between biosphere and atmosphere and ocean/atmosphere dynamics, concretely on the coupling between ecological processes and large-scale climate, is presented in two studies in Northern North America: the occurrence of large lightning wildfires and the forest area affected by mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae, MPB). In both cases, large-scale climatic patterns such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the Arctic Oscillation (AO) operate as low and low and high frequency frameworks, respectively, that control the occurrence, duration and spatial correlation over large areas of key local weather variables which affect specific ecological processes. Warm PDO phases tend to produce persistent (more than 10 days long) positive mid-troposphere anomalies (blocking highs) over western Canada and Alaska. Likewise, positive (negative) AO configurations increase the frequency of blocking highs at mid (high) latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. Under these conditions, lack of precipitation and prevailing warm air meridional flow rapidly dry fuel over large areas and increase fire hazard. The spatiotemporal patterns of occurrence of large lightning wildfire in Canada and Alaska for 1959-1999 were largely explained by the action and possible interaction of AO and PDO, the AO being more influential over Eastern Canada, the PDO over Western Canada and Alaska. Changes in the dynamics of the PDO are linked to the occurrence of cold winter temperatures in British Columbia (BC), Western Canada. Reduced frequency of cold events during warm PDO winters is consistent with a northward-displaced polar jet stream inhibiting the outflow of cold Arctic air over BC. Likewise, the AO influences the occurrence of winter cold spells in the area. PDO, and to a lesser degree AO, were strongly related to MPB synchrony in BC during 1959-2002, operating through the control of the frequency of extreme cold winter temperatures that affect MPB larvae survival. The onset of a warm PDO phase in 1976 1) increased (decreased) the area burnt by wildfire in the Canadian Boreal Forest (BC) by increasing (decreasing) the frequency of blocking highs in the area, and 2) favored MPB outbreaks in BC by reducing the occurrence of extremely low winter temperatures. Likewise, the exceptionally high and persistent AO values of the late 1980s and 1990s increased area burned in Eastern Canada and MPB activity in the southern and northern parts of BC. A possible recent PDO phase shift may largely reverse these trends.

On extreme events for non-spatial and spatial branching Brownian motions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Avan, Jean; Grosjean, Nicolas; Huillet, Thierry

2015-04-01

We study the impact of having a non-spatial branching mechanism with infinite variance on some parameters (height, width and first hitting time) of an underlying Bienaymé-Galton-Watson branching process. Aiming at providing a comparative study of the spread of an epidemics whose dynamics is given by the modulus of a branching Brownian motion (BBM) we then consider spatial branching processes in dimension d, not necessarily integer. The underlying branching mechanism is either a binary branching model or one presenting infinite variance. In particular we evaluate the chance p(x) of being hit if the epidemics started away at distance x. We compute the large x tail probabilities of this event, both when the branching mechanism is regular and when it exhibits very large fluctuations.

Eight guidelines for developing a strategy for the '90s.

PubMed

Kaufman, N

1994-03-20

Regardless of the outcome of federal reform initiatives, health care is undergoing structural change of unprecedented magnitude. Structural change occurs when there is a fundamental, sustainable change in the values and purchasing behavior of buyers. During such times, market leaders are extremely vulnerable to competitive threats due to internal bureaucratic barriers. Witness the U.S. computer and automobile industries. As Robert Lutz, president of Chrysler, points out, "Being large doesn't mean being safe. The large won't eat the small. The swift will eat the slow." During this dynamic period in health care, it is critical that strategy be on target. Periods of structural change are filled with numerous threats as well as opportunities. The following are eight guidelines for developing health care strategy during the structural changes of the '90s.

Initial Low-Reynolds Number Iced Aerodynamic Performance for CRM Wing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Woodard, Brian; Diebold, Jeff; Broeren, Andy; Potapczuk, Mark; Lee, Sam; Bragg, Michael

2015-01-01

NASA, FAA, ONERA, and other partner organizations have embarked on a significant, collaborative research effort to address the technical challenges associated with icing on large scale, three-dimensional swept wings. These are extremely complex phenomena important to the design, certification and safe operation of small and large transport aircraft. There is increasing demand to balance trade-offs in aircraft efficiency, cost and noise that tend to compete directly with allowable performance degradations over an increasing range of icing conditions. Computational fluid dynamics codes have reached a level of maturity that they are being proposed by manufacturers for use in certification of aircraft for flight in icing. However, sufficient high-quality data to evaluate their performance on iced swept wings are not currently available in the public domain and significant knowledge gaps remain.

Circularized Chromosome with a Large Palindromic Structure in Streptomyces griseus Mutants

PubMed Central

Uchida, Tetsuya; Ishihara, Naoto; Zenitani, Hiroyuki; Hiratsu, Keiichiro; Kinashi, Haruyasu

2004-01-01

Streptomyces linear chromosomes display various types of rearrangements after telomere deletion, including circularization, arm replacement, and amplification. We analyzed the new chromosomal deletion mutants Streptomyces griseus 301-22-L and 301-22-M. In these mutants, chromosomal arm replacement resulted in long terminal inverted repeats (TIRs) at both ends; different sizes were deleted again and recombined inside the TIRs, resulting in a circular chromosome with an extremely large palindrome. Short palindromic sequences were found in parent strain 2247, and these sequences might have played a role in the formation of this unique structure. Dynamic structural changes of Streptomyces linear chromosomes shown by this and previous studies revealed extraordinary strategies of members of this genus to keep a functional chromosome, even if it is linear or circular. PMID:15150216

Coherent inflation for large quantum superpositions of levitated microspheres

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Romero-Isart, Oriol

2017-12-01

We show that coherent inflation (CI), namely quantum dynamics generated by inverted conservative potentials acting on the center of mass of a massive object, is an enabling tool to prepare large spatial quantum superpositions in a double-slit experiment. Combined with cryogenic, extreme high vacuum, and low-vibration environments, we argue that it is experimentally feasible to exploit CI to prepare the center of mass of a micrometer-sized object in a spatial quantum superposition comparable to its size. In such a hitherto unexplored parameter regime gravitationally-induced decoherence could be unambiguously falsified. We present a protocol to implement CI in a double-slit experiment by letting a levitated microsphere traverse a static potential landscape. Such a protocol could be experimentally implemented with an all-magnetic scheme using superconducting microspheres.

Data Mining of Extremely Large Ad Hoc Data Sets to Produce Inverted Indices

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-06-01

NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY, CALIFORNIA THESIS Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited DATA MINING OF...COVERED Master’s Thesis 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE DATA MINING OF EXTREMELY LARGE AD HOC DATA SETS TO PRODUCE INVERTED INDICES 5. FUNDING NUMBERS 6...INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK iii Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited DATA MINING OF EXTREMELY LARGE AD HOC DATA SETS TO PRODUCE

Modeling extreme drought impacts on terrestrial ecosystems when thresholds are exceeded

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holm, J. A.; Rammig, A.; Smith, B.; Medvigy, D.; Lichstein, J. W.; Dukes, J. S.; Allen, C. D.; Beier, C.; Larsen, K. S.; Ficken, C. D.; Pockman, W.; Anderegg, W.; Luo, Y.

2016-12-01

Recent IPCC Assessment Reports suggest that with predicted climate changes future precipitation- and heat-related extreme events are becoming stronger and more frequent with potential for prolonged droughts. To prepare for these changes and their impacts, we need to develop a better understanding of terrestrial ecosystem responses to extreme drought events. In particular, we focus here on large-extent and long-lasting extreme drought events with noticeable impacts on the functioning of forested ecosystems. While most of ecosystem manipulative experiments have been motivated by ongoing and predicted climate change, the majority only applied relatively moderate droughts, not addressing the "very" extreme tail of these scenarios, i.e. "extreme extremes (EEs)". We explore the response of forest ecosystems to EEs using two demographic-based dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) (i.e. ED2, LPJ-GUESS) in which the abundances of different plant functional types, as well as tree size- and age-class structure, are emergent properties of resource competition. We evaluate the model's capabilities to represent extreme drought scenarios (i.e., 50% and 90% reduction in precipitation for 1-year, 2-year, and 4-year drought scenarios) at two dry forested sites: Palo Verde, Costa Rica (i.e. tropical) and EucFACE, Australia (i.e. temperate). Through the DGVM modeling outcomes we determine the following five testable hypotheses for future experiments: 1) EEs cannot be extrapolated from mild extremes due to plant plasticity and functional composition. 2) Response to EEs depends on functional diversity, trait combinations, and phenology, such that both models predicted even after 100 years plant biomass did not recover. 3) Mortality from drought reduces the pressure on resources and prevents further damage by subsequent years of drought. 4) Early successional stands are more vulnerable to extreme droughts while older stand are more resilient. 5) Elevated atmospheric CO2 alleviates impacts of extreme droughts while increased temperature exacerbates mortality. This study highlighted a number of questions about our current understanding of EEs and their corresponding thresholds and tipping points, and provides an analysis of confidence in model representation and accuracy of processes related to EEs.

Initial condition-dependent dynamics and transient period in memristor-based hypogenetic jerk system with four line equilibria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bao, Han; Wang, Ning; Bao, Bocheng; Chen, Mo; Jin, Peipei; Wang, Guangyi

2018-04-01

Memristor-based nonlinear dynamical system easily presents the initial condition-dependent dynamical phenomenon of extreme multistability, i.e., coexisting infinitely many attractors, which has been received much attention in recent years. By introducing an ideal and active flux-controlled memristor into an existing hypogenetic chaotic jerk system, an interesting memristor-based chaotic system with hypogenetic jerk equation and circuit forms is proposed. The most striking feature is that this system has four line equilibria and exhibits the extreme multistability phenomenon of coexisting infinitely many attractors. Stability of these line equilibria are analyzed, and coexisting infinitely many attractors' behaviors with the variations of the initial conditions are investigated by bifurcation diagrams, Lyapunov exponent spectra, attraction basins, and phased portraits, upon which the forming mechanism of extreme multistablity in the memristor-based hypogenetic jerk system is explored. Specially, unusual transition behavior of long term transient period with steady chaos, completely different from the phenomenon of transient chaos, can be also found for some initial conditions. Moreover, a hardware circuit is design and fabricated and its experimental results effectively verify the truth of extreme multistablity.

Control of extreme events in the bubbling onset of wave turbulence.

PubMed

Galuzio, P P; Viana, R L; Lopes, S R

2014-04-01

We show the existence of an intermittent transition from temporal chaos to turbulence in a spatially extended dynamical system, namely, the forced and damped one-dimensional nonlinear Schrödinger equation. For some values of the forcing parameter, the system dynamics intermittently switches between ordered states and turbulent states, which may be seen as extreme events in some contexts. In a Fourier phase space, the intermittency takes place due to the loss of transversal stability of unstable periodic orbits embedded in a low-dimensional subspace. We mapped these transversely unstable regions and perturbed the system in order to significantly reduce the occurrence of extreme events of turbulence.

Changing population dynamics and uneven temperature emergence combine to exacerbate regional exposure to heat extremes under 1.5 °C and 2 °C of warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harrington, Luke J.; Otto, Friederike E. L.

2018-03-01

Understanding how continuing increases in global mean temperature will exacerbate societal exposure to extreme weather events is a question of profound importance. However, determining population exposure to the impacts of heat extremes at 1.5 °C and 2 °C of global mean warming requires not only (1) a robust understanding of the physical climate system response, but also consideration of (2) projected changes to overall population size, as well as (3) changes to where people will live in the future. This analysis introduces a new framework, adapted from studies of probabilistic event attribution, to disentangle the relative importance of regional climate emergence and changing population dynamics in the exposure to future heat extremes across multiple densely populated regions in Southern Asia and Eastern Africa (SAEA). Our results reveal that, when population is kept at 2015 levels, exposure to heat considered severe in the present decade across SAEA will increase by a factor of 4.1 (2.4-9.6) and 15.8 (5.0-135) under a 1.5°- and 2.0°-warmer world, respectively. Furthermore, projected population changes by the end of the century under an SSP1 and SSP2 scenario can further exacerbate these changes by a factor of 1.2 (1.0-1.3) and 1.5 (1.3-1.7), respectively. However, a large fraction of this additional risk increase is not related to absolute increases in population, but instead attributed to changes in which regions exhibit continued population growth into the future. Further, this added impact of population redistribution will be twice as significant after 2.0 °C of warming, relative to stabilisation at 1.5 °C, due to the non-linearity of increases in heat exposure. Irrespective of the population scenario considered, continued African population expansion will place more people in locations where emergent changes to future heat extremes are exceptionally severe.

An Exceptionally Preserved Three-Dimensional Armored Dinosaur Reveals Insights into Coloration and Cretaceous Predator-Prey Dynamics.

PubMed

Brown, Caleb M; Henderson, Donald M; Vinther, Jakob; Fletcher, Ian; Sistiaga, Ainara; Herrera, Jorsua; Summons, Roger E

2017-08-21

Predator-prey dynamics are an important evolutionary driver of escalating predation mode and efficiency, and commensurate responses of prey [1-3]. Among these strategies, camouflage is important for visual concealment, with countershading the most universally observed [4-6]. Extant terrestrial herbivores free of significant predation pressure, due to large size or isolation, do not exhibit countershading. Modern predator-prey dynamics may not be directly applicable to those of the Mesozoic due to the dominance of very large, visually oriented theropod dinosaurs [7]. Despite thyreophoran dinosaurs' possessing extensive dermal armor, some of the most extreme examples of anti-predator structures [8, 9], little direct evidence of predation on these and other dinosaur megaherbivores has been documented. Here we describe a new, exquisitely three-dimensionally preserved nodosaurid ankylosaur, Borealopelta markmitchelli gen. et sp. nov., from the Early Cretaceous of Alberta, which preserves integumentary structures as organic layers, including continuous fields of epidermal scales and intact horn sheaths capping the body armor. We identify melanin in the organic residues through mass spectroscopic analyses and observe lighter pigmentation of the large parascapular spines, consistent with display, and a pattern of countershading across the body. With an estimated body mass exceeding 1,300 kg, B. markmitchelli was much larger than modern terrestrial mammals that either are countershaded or experience significant predation pressure as adults. Presence of countershading suggests predation pressure strong enough to select for concealment in this megaherbivore despite possession of massive dorsal and lateral armor, illustrating a significant dichotomy between Mesozoic predator-prey dynamics and those of modern terrestrial systems. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

The impact of model detail on power grid resilience measures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Auer, S.; Kleis, K.; Schultz, P.; Kurths, J.; Hellmann, F.

2016-05-01

Extreme events are a challenge to natural as well as man-made systems. For critical infrastructure like power grids, we need to understand their resilience against large disturbances. Recently, new measures of the resilience of dynamical systems have been developed in the complex system literature. Basin stability and survivability respectively assess the asymptotic and transient behavior of a system when subjected to arbitrary, localized but large perturbations in frequency and phase. To employ these methods that assess power grid resilience, we need to choose a certain model detail of the power grid. For the grid topology we considered the Scandinavian grid and an ensemble of power grids generated with a random growth model. So far the most popular model that has been studied is the classical swing equation model for the frequency response of generators and motors. In this paper we study a more sophisticated model of synchronous machines that also takes voltage dynamics into account, and compare it to the previously studied model. This model has been found to give an accurate picture of the long term evolution of synchronous machines in the engineering literature for post fault studies. We find evidence that some stable fix points of the swing equation become unstable when we add voltage dynamics. If this occurs the asymptotic behavior of the system can be dramatically altered, and basin stability estimates obtained with the swing equation can be dramatically wrong. We also find that the survivability does not change significantly when taking the voltage dynamics into account. Further, the limit cycle type asymptotic behaviour is strongly correlated with transient voltages that violate typical operational voltage bounds. Thus, transient voltage bounds are dominated by transient frequency bounds and play no large role for realistic parameters.

Sea Extremes: Integrated impact assessment in coastal climate adaptation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sorensen, Carlo; Knudsen, Per; Broge, Niels; Molgaard, Mads; Andersen, Ole

2016-04-01

We investigate effects of sea level rise and a change in precipitation pattern on coastal flooding hazards. Historic and present in situ and satellite data of water and groundwater levels, precipitation, vertical ground motion, geology, and geotechnical soil properties are combined with flood protection measures, topography, and infrastructure to provide a more complete picture of the water-related impact from climate change at an exposed coastal location. Results show that future sea extremes evaluated from extreme value statistics may, indeed, have a large impact. The integrated effects from future storm surges and other geo- and hydro-parameters need to be considered in order to provide for the best protection and mitigation efforts, however. Based on the results we present and discuss a simple conceptual model setup that can e.g. be used for 'translation' of regional sea level rise evidence and projections to concrete impact measures. This may be used by potentially affected stakeholders -often working in different sectors and across levels of governance, in a common appraisal of the challenges faced ahead. The model may also enter dynamic tools to evaluate local impact as sea level research advances and projections for the future are updated.

The Extreme Ultraviolet spectrometer on bard the Hisaki satellite

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yoshioka, K.; Murakami, G.; Yamazaki, A.; Tsuchiya, F.; Kagitani, M.; Kimura, T.; Yoshikawa, I.

2017-12-01

The extreme ultraviolet spectroscope EXCEED (EXtrem ultraviolet spetrosCope for ExosphEric Dynamics) on board the Hisaki satellite was launched in September 2013 from the Uchinoura space center, Japan. It is orbiting around the Earth with an orbital altitude of around 950-1150 km. This satellite is dedicated to and optimized for observing the atmosphere and magnetosphere of terrestrial planets such as Mercury, Venus, Mars, as well as Jupiter. The instrument consists of an off axis parabolic entrance mirror, switchable slits with multiple filters and shapes, a toroidal grating, and a photon counting detector, together with a field of view guiding camera. The design goal is to achieve a large effective area but with high spatial and spectral resolution. Based on the after-launch calibration, the spectral resolution of EXCEED is found to be 0.3-0.5 nm FWHM (Full Width at Half Maximum) over the entire spectral band, and the spatial resolution is around 17". The evaluated effective area is larger than 1cm2. In this presentation, the basic concept of the instrument design and the observation technique are introduced. The current status of the spacecraft and its future observation plan are also shown.

Arctic Sea Ice, Eurasia Snow, and Extreme Winter Haze in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zou, Y.; Wang, Y.; Xie, Z.; Zhang, Y.; Koo, J. H.

2017-12-01

Eastern China is experiencing more severe haze pollution in winter during recent years. Though the environmental deterioration in this region is usually attributed to the high intensity of anthropogenic emissions and large contributions from secondary aerosol formation, the impact of climate variability is also indispensable given its significant influence on regional weather systems and pollution ventilation. Here we analyzed the air quality related winter meteorological conditions over Eastern China in the last four decades and showed a worsening trend in poor regional air pollutant ventilation. Such variations increased the probability of extreme air pollution events, which is in good agreement with aerosol observations of recent years. We further identified the key circulation pattern that is conducive to the weakening ventilation and investigated the relationship between synoptic circulation changes and multiple climate forcing variables. Both statistical analysis and numerical sensitivity experiments suggested that the poor ventilation condition is linked to boreal cryosphere changes including Arctic sea ice in preceding autumn and Eurasia snowfall in earlier winter. We conducted comprehensive dynamic diagnosis and proposed a physical mechanism to explain the observed and simulated circulation changes. At last, we examined future projections of winter extreme stagnation events based on the CMIP5 projection data.

Prospectus: towards the development of high-fidelity models of wall turbulence at large Reynolds number

PubMed Central

Klewicki, J. C.; Chini, G. P.; Gibson, J. F.

2017-01-01

Recent and on-going advances in mathematical methods and analysis techniques, coupled with the experimental and computational capacity to capture detailed flow structure at increasingly large Reynolds numbers, afford an unprecedented opportunity to develop realistic models of high Reynolds number turbulent wall-flow dynamics. A distinctive attribute of this new generation of models is their grounding in the Navier–Stokes equations. By adhering to this challenging constraint, high-fidelity models ultimately can be developed that not only predict flow properties at high Reynolds numbers, but that possess a mathematical structure that faithfully captures the underlying flow physics. These first-principles models are needed, for example, to reliably manipulate flow behaviours at extreme Reynolds numbers. This theme issue of Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A provides a selection of contributions from the community of researchers who are working towards the development of such models. Broadly speaking, the research topics represented herein report on dynamical structure, mechanisms and transport; scale interactions and self-similarity; model reductions that restrict nonlinear interactions; and modern asymptotic theories. In this prospectus, the challenges associated with modelling turbulent wall-flows at large Reynolds numbers are briefly outlined, and the connections between the contributing papers are highlighted. This article is part of the themed issue ‘Toward the development of high-fidelity models of wall turbulence at large Reynolds number’. PMID:28167585

Prospectus: towards the development of high-fidelity models of wall turbulence at large Reynolds number.

PubMed

Klewicki, J C; Chini, G P; Gibson, J F

2017-03-13

Recent and on-going advances in mathematical methods and analysis techniques, coupled with the experimental and computational capacity to capture detailed flow structure at increasingly large Reynolds numbers, afford an unprecedented opportunity to develop realistic models of high Reynolds number turbulent wall-flow dynamics. A distinctive attribute of this new generation of models is their grounding in the Navier-Stokes equations. By adhering to this challenging constraint, high-fidelity models ultimately can be developed that not only predict flow properties at high Reynolds numbers, but that possess a mathematical structure that faithfully captures the underlying flow physics. These first-principles models are needed, for example, to reliably manipulate flow behaviours at extreme Reynolds numbers. This theme issue of Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A provides a selection of contributions from the community of researchers who are working towards the development of such models. Broadly speaking, the research topics represented herein report on dynamical structure, mechanisms and transport; scale interactions and self-similarity; model reductions that restrict nonlinear interactions; and modern asymptotic theories. In this prospectus, the challenges associated with modelling turbulent wall-flows at large Reynolds numbers are briefly outlined, and the connections between the contributing papers are highlighted.This article is part of the themed issue 'Toward the development of high-fidelity models of wall turbulence at large Reynolds number'. © 2017 The Author(s).

Fast, clash-free RNA conformational morphing using molecular junctions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Heliou, Amelie; Budday, Dominik; Fonseca, Rasmus

Non-coding ribonucleic acids (ncRNA) are functional RNA molecules that are not translated into protein. They are extremely dynamic, adopting diverse conformational substates, which enables them to modulate their interaction with a large number of other molecules. The flexibility of ncRNA provides a challenge for probing their complex 3D conformational landscape, both experimentally and computationally. As a result, despite their conformational diversity, ncRNAs mostly preserve their secondary structure throughout the dynamic ensemble. Here we present a kinematics-based procedure to morph an RNA molecule between conformational substates, while avoiding inter-atomic clashes. We represent an RNA as a kinematic linkage, with fixed groupsmore » of atoms as rigid bodies and rotatable bonds as degrees of freedom. Our procedure maintains RNA secondary structure by treating hydrogen bonds between base pairs as constraints. The constraints define a lower-dimensional, secondary-structure constraint manifold in conformation space, where motions are largely governed by molecular junctions of unpaired nucleotides. On a large benchmark set, we show that our morphing procedure compares favorably to peer algorithms, and can approach goal conformations to within a low all-atom RMSD by directing fewer than 1% of its atoms. Furthermore, our results suggest that molecular junctions can modulate 3D structural rearrangements, while secondary structure elements guide large parts of the molecule along the transition to the correct final conformation.« less

Fast, clash-free RNA conformational morphing using molecular junctions

DOE PAGES

Heliou, Amelie; Budday, Dominik; Fonseca, Rasmus; ...

2017-03-13

Non-coding ribonucleic acids (ncRNA) are functional RNA molecules that are not translated into protein. They are extremely dynamic, adopting diverse conformational substates, which enables them to modulate their interaction with a large number of other molecules. The flexibility of ncRNA provides a challenge for probing their complex 3D conformational landscape, both experimentally and computationally. As a result, despite their conformational diversity, ncRNAs mostly preserve their secondary structure throughout the dynamic ensemble. Here we present a kinematics-based procedure to morph an RNA molecule between conformational substates, while avoiding inter-atomic clashes. We represent an RNA as a kinematic linkage, with fixed groupsmore » of atoms as rigid bodies and rotatable bonds as degrees of freedom. Our procedure maintains RNA secondary structure by treating hydrogen bonds between base pairs as constraints. The constraints define a lower-dimensional, secondary-structure constraint manifold in conformation space, where motions are largely governed by molecular junctions of unpaired nucleotides. On a large benchmark set, we show that our morphing procedure compares favorably to peer algorithms, and can approach goal conformations to within a low all-atom RMSD by directing fewer than 1% of its atoms. Furthermore, our results suggest that molecular junctions can modulate 3D structural rearrangements, while secondary structure elements guide large parts of the molecule along the transition to the correct final conformation.« less

Automatic detection and analysis of cell motility in phase-contrast time-lapse images using a combination of maximally stable extremal regions and Kalman filter approaches.

PubMed

Kaakinen, M; Huttunen, S; Paavolainen, L; Marjomäki, V; Heikkilä, J; Eklund, L

2014-01-01

Phase-contrast illumination is simple and most commonly used microscopic method to observe nonstained living cells. Automatic cell segmentation and motion analysis provide tools to analyze single cell motility in large cell populations. However, the challenge is to find a sophisticated method that is sufficiently accurate to generate reliable results, robust to function under the wide range of illumination conditions encountered in phase-contrast microscopy, and also computationally light for efficient analysis of large number of cells and image frames. To develop better automatic tools for analysis of low magnification phase-contrast images in time-lapse cell migration movies, we investigated the performance of cell segmentation method that is based on the intrinsic properties of maximally stable extremal regions (MSER). MSER was found to be reliable and effective in a wide range of experimental conditions. When compared to the commonly used segmentation approaches, MSER required negligible preoptimization steps thus dramatically reducing the computation time. To analyze cell migration characteristics in time-lapse movies, the MSER-based automatic cell detection was accompanied by a Kalman filter multiobject tracker that efficiently tracked individual cells even in confluent cell populations. This allowed quantitative cell motion analysis resulting in accurate measurements of the migration magnitude and direction of individual cells, as well as characteristics of collective migration of cell groups. Our results demonstrate that MSER accompanied by temporal data association is a powerful tool for accurate and reliable analysis of the dynamic behaviour of cells in phase-contrast image sequences. These techniques tolerate varying and nonoptimal imaging conditions and due to their relatively light computational requirements they should help to resolve problems in computationally demanding and often time-consuming large-scale dynamical analysis of cultured cells. © 2013 The Authors Journal of Microscopy © 2013 Royal Microscopical Society.

CFD Study of Full-Scale Aerobic Bioreactors: Evaluation of Dynamic O2 Distribution, Gas-Liquid Mass Transfer and Reaction

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Humbird, David; Sitaraman, Hariswaran; Stickel, Jonathan

If advanced biofuels are to measurably displace fossil fuels in the near term, they will have to operate at levels of scale, efficiency, and margin unprecedented in the current biotech industry. For aerobically-grown products in particular, scale-up is complex and the practical size, cost, and operability of extremely large reactors is not well understood. Put simply, the problem of how to attain fuel-class production scales comes down to cost-effective delivery of oxygen at high mass transfer rates and low capital and operating costs. To that end, very large reactor vessels (>500 m3) are proposed in order to achieve favorable economiesmore » of scale. Additionally, techno-economic evaluation indicates that bubble-column reactors are more cost-effective than stirred-tank reactors in many low-viscosity cultures. In order to advance the design of extremely large aerobic bioreactors, we have performed computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations of bubble-column reactors. A multiphase Euler-Euler model is used to explicitly account for the spatial distribution of air (i.e., gas bubbles) in the reactor. Expanding on the existing bioreactor CFD literature (typically focused on the hydrodynamics of bubbly flows), our simulations include interphase mass transfer of oxygen and a simple phenomenological reaction representing the uptake and consumption of dissolved oxygen by submerged cells. The simulations reproduce the expected flow profiles, with net upward flow in the center of column and downward flow near the wall. At high simulated oxygen uptake rates (OUR), oxygen-depleted regions can be observed in the reactor. By increasing the gas flow to enhance mixing and eliminate depleted areas, a maximum oxygen transfer (OTR) rate is obtained as a function of superficial velocity. These insights regarding minimum superficial velocity and maximum reactor size are incorporated into NREL's larger techno-economic models to supplement standard reactor design equations.« less

A comparison of large-scale climate signals and the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) for drought prediction in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Lei; Chen, Nengcheng; Zhang, Xiang

2018-02-01

Drought is an extreme natural disaster that can lead to huge socioeconomic losses. Drought prediction ahead of months is helpful for early drought warning and preparations. In this study, we developed a statistical model, two weighted dynamic models and a statistical-dynamic (hybrid) model for 1-6 month lead drought prediction in China. Specifically, statistical component refers to climate signals weighting by support vector regression (SVR), dynamic components consist of the ensemble mean (EM) and Bayesian model averaging (BMA) of the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) climatic models, and the hybrid part denotes a combination of statistical and dynamic components by assigning weights based on their historical performances. The results indicate that the statistical and hybrid models show better rainfall predictions than NMME-EM and NMME-BMA models, which have good predictability only in southern China. In the 2011 China winter-spring drought event, the statistical model well predicted the spatial extent and severity of drought nationwide, although the severity was underestimated in the mid-lower reaches of Yangtze River (MLRYR) region. The NMME-EM and NMME-BMA models largely overestimated rainfall in northern and western China in 2011 drought. In the 2013 China summer drought, the NMME-EM model forecasted the drought extent and severity in eastern China well, while the statistical and hybrid models falsely detected negative precipitation anomaly (NPA) in some areas. Model ensembles such as multiple statistical approaches, multiple dynamic models or multiple hybrid models for drought predictions were highlighted. These conclusions may be helpful for drought prediction and early drought warnings in China.

The chaotic dynamical aperture

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lee, S.Y.; Tepikian, S.

1985-10-01

Nonlinear magnetic forces become more important for particles in the modern large accelerators. These nonlinear elements are introduced either intentionally to control beam dynamics or by uncontrollable random errors. Equations of motion in the nonlinear Hamiltonian are usually non-integrable. Because of the nonlinear part of the Hamiltonian, the tune diagram of accelerators is a jungle. Nonlinear magnet multipoles are important in keeping the accelerator operation point in the safe quarter of the hostile jungle of resonant tunes. Indeed, all the modern accelerator design have taken advantages of nonlinear mechanics. On the other hand, the effect of the uncontrollable random multipolesmore » should be evaluated carefully. A powerful method of studying the effect of these nonlinear multipoles is using a particle tracking calculation, where a group of test particles are tracing through these magnetic multipoles in the accelerator hundreds to millions of turns in order to test the dynamical aperture of the machine. These methods are extremely useful in the design of a large accelerator such as SSC, LEP, HERA and RHIC. These calculations unfortunately take tremendous amount of computing time. In this paper, we try to apply the existing method in the nonlinear dynamics to study the possible alternative solution. When the Hamiltonian motion becomes chaotic, the tune of the machine becomes undefined. The aperture related to the chaotic orbit can be identified as chaotic dynamical aperture. We review the method of determining chaotic orbit and apply the method to nonlinear problems in accelerator physics. We then discuss the scaling properties and effect of random sextupoles.« less

Phase transitions and dynamics of bulk and interfacial water.

PubMed

Franzese, G; Hernando-Martínez, A; Kumar, P; Mazza, M G; Stokely, K; Strekalova, E G; de los Santos, F; Stanley, H E

2010-07-21

New experiments on water at the surface of proteins at very low temperature display intriguing dynamic behaviors. The extreme conditions of these experiments make it difficult to explore the wide range of thermodynamic state points needed to offer a suitable interpretation. Detailed simulations suffer from the same problem, where equilibration times at low temperature become extremely long. We show how Monte Carlo simulations and mean field calculations using a tractable model of water help interpret the experimental results. Here we summarize the results for bulk water and investigate the thermodynamic and dynamic properties of supercooled water at an interface.

Continuous and discrete extreme climatic events affecting the dynamics of a high-arctic reindeer population.

PubMed

Chan, Kung-Sik; Mysterud, Atle; Øritsland, Nils Are; Severinsen, Torbjørn; Stenseth, Nils Chr

2005-10-01

Climate at northern latitudes are currently changing both with regard to the mean and the temporal variability at any given site, increasing the frequency of extreme events such as cold and warm spells. Here we use a conceptually new modelling approach with two different dynamic terms of the climatic effects on a Svalbard reindeer population (the Brøggerhalvøya population) which underwent an extreme icing event ("locked pastures") with 80% reduction in population size during one winter (1993/94). One term captures the continuous and linear effect depending upon the Arctic Oscillation and another the discrete (rare) "event" process. The introduction of an "event" parameter describing the discrete extreme winter resulted in a more parsimonious model. Such an approach may be useful in strongly age-structured ungulate populations, with young and very old individuals being particularly prone to mortality factors during adverse conditions (resulting in a population structure that differs before and after extreme climatic events). A simulation study demonstrates that our approach is able to properly detect the ecological effects of such extreme climate events.

Extreme events in total ozone: Spatio-temporal analysis from local to global scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rieder, Harald E.; Staehelin, Johannes; Maeder, Jörg A.; Ribatet, Mathieu; di Rocco, Stefania; Jancso, Leonhardt M.; Peter, Thomas; Davison, Anthony C.

2010-05-01

Recently tools from extreme value theory (e.g. Coles, 2001; Ribatet, 2007) have been applied for the first time in the field of stratospheric ozone research, as statistical analysis showed that previously used concepts assuming a Gaussian distribution (e.g. fixed deviations from mean values) of total ozone data do not address the internal data structure concerning extremes adequately (Rieder et al., 2010a,b). A case study the world's longest total ozone record (Arosa, Switzerland - for details see Staehelin et al., 1998a,b) illustrates that tools based on extreme value theory are appropriate to identify ozone extremes and to describe the tails of the total ozone record. Excursions in the frequency of extreme events reveal "fingerprints" of dynamical factors such as ENSO or NAO, and chemical factors, such as cold Arctic vortex ozone losses, as well as major volcanic eruptions of the 20th century (e.g. Gunung Agung, El Chichón, Mt. Pinatubo). Furthermore, atmospheric loading in ozone depleting substances led to a continuous modification of column ozone in the northern hemisphere also with respect to extreme values (partly again in connection with polar vortex contributions). It is shown that application of extreme value theory allows the identification of many more such fingerprints than conventional time series analysis of annual and seasonal mean values. Especially, the extremal analysis shows the strong influence of dynamics, revealing that even moderate ENSO and NAO events have a discernible effect on total ozone (Rieder et al., 2010b). Overall the extremes concept provides new information on time series properties, variability, trends and the influence of dynamics and chemistry, complementing earlier analyses focusing only on monthly (or annual) mean values. Findings described above could be proven also for the total ozone records of 5 other long-term series (Belsk, Hohenpeissenberg, Hradec Kralove, Potsdam, Uccle) showing that strong influence of atmospheric dynamics (NAO, ENSO) on total ozone is a global feature in the northern mid-latitudes (Rieder et al., 2010c). In a next step frequency distributions of extreme events are analyzed on global scale (northern and southern mid-latitudes). A specific focus here is whether findings gained through analysis of long-term European ground based stations can be clearly identified as a global phenomenon. By showing results from these three types of studies an overview of extreme events in total ozone (and the dynamical and chemical features leading to those) will be presented from local to global scales. References: Coles, S.: An Introduction to Statistical Modeling of Extreme Values, Springer Series in Statistics, ISBN:1852334592, Springer, Berlin, 2001. Ribatet, M.: POT: Modelling peaks over a threshold, R News, 7, 34-36, 2007. Rieder, H.E., Staehelin, J., Maeder, J.A., Ribatet, M., Stübi, R., Weihs, P., Holawe, F., Peter, T., and A.D., Davison (2010): Extreme events in total ozone over Arosa - Part I: Application of extreme value theory, to be submitted to ACPD. Rieder, H.E., Staehelin, J., Maeder, J.A., Ribatet, M., Stübi, R., Weihs, P., Holawe, F., Peter, T., and A.D., Davison (2010): Extreme events in total ozone over Arosa - Part II: Fingerprints of atmospheric dynamics and chemistry and effects on mean values and long-term changes, to be submitted to ACPD. Rieder, H.E., Jancso, L., Staehelin, J., Maeder, J.A., Ribatet, Peter, T., and A.D., Davison (2010): Extreme events in total ozone over the northern mid-latitudes: A case study based on long-term data sets from 5 ground-based stations, in preparation. Staehelin, J., Renaud, A., Bader, J., McPeters, R., Viatte, P., Hoegger, B., Bugnion, V., Giroud, M., and Schill, H.: Total ozone series at Arosa (Switzerland): Homogenization and data comparison, J. Geophys. Res., 103(D5), 5827-5842, doi:10.1029/97JD02402, 1998a. Staehelin, J., Kegel, R., and Harris, N. R.: Trend analysis of the homogenized total ozone series of Arosa (Switzerland), 1929-1996, J. Geophys. Res., 103(D7), 8389-8400, doi:10.1029/97JD03650, 1998b.

MESSENGER Observations of Extreme Space Weather in Mercury's Magnetosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Slavin, J. A.

2013-09-01

Increasing activity on the Sun is allowing MESSENGER to make its first observations of Mercury's magnetosphere under extreme solar wind conditions. At Earth interplanetary shock waves and coronal mass ejections produce severe "space weather" in the form of large geomagnetic storms that affect telecommunications, space systems, and ground-based power grids. In the case of Mercury the primary effect of extreme space weather in on the degree to which this it's weak global magnetic field can shield the planet from the solar wind. Direct impact of the solar wind on the surface of airless bodies like Mercury results in space weathering of the regolith and the sputtering of atomic species like sodium and calcium to high altitudes where they contribute to a tenuous, but highly dynamic exosphere. MESSENGER observations indicate that during extreme interplanetary conditions the solar wind plasma gains access to the surface of Mercury through three main regions: 1. The magnetospheric cusps, which fill with energized solar wind and planetary ions; 2. The subsolar magnetopause, which is compressed and eroded by reconnection to very low altitudes where the natural gyro-motion of solar wind protons may result in their impact on the surface; 3. The magnetotail where hot plasma sheet ions rapidly convect sunward to impact the surface on the nightside of Mercury. The possible implications of these new MESSENGER observations for our ability to predict space weather at Earth and other planets will be described.

Large scale variability, long-term trends and extreme events in total ozone over the northern mid-latitudes based on satellite time series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rieder, H. E.; Staehelin, J.; Maeder, J. A.; Ribatet, M.; Davison, A. C.

2009-04-01

Various generations of satellites (e.g. TOMS, GOME, OMI) made spatial datasets of column ozone available to the scientific community. This study has a special focus on column ozone over the northern mid-latitudes. Tools from geostatistics and extreme value theory are applied to analyze variability, long-term trends and frequency distributions of extreme events in total ozone. In a recent case study (Rieder et al., 2009) new tools from extreme value theory (Coles, 2001; Ribatet, 2007) have been applied to the world's longest total ozone record from Arosa, Switzerland (e.g. Staehelin 1998a,b), in order to describe extreme events in low and high total ozone. Within the current study this analysis is extended to satellite datasets for the northern mid-latitudes. Further special emphasis is given on patterns and spatial correlations and the influence of changes in atmospheric dynamics (e.g. tropospheric and lower stratospheric pressure systems) on column ozone. References: Coles, S.: An Introduction to Statistical Modeling of Extreme Values, Springer Series in Statistics, ISBN:1852334592, Springer, Berlin, 2001. Ribatet, M.: POT: Modelling peaks over a threshold, R News, 7, 34-36, 2007. Rieder, H.E., Staehelin, J., Maeder, J.A., Ribatet, M., Stübi, R., Weihs, P., Holawe, F., Peter, T., and Davison, A.C.: From ozone mini holes and mini highs towards extreme value theory: New insights from extreme events and non stationarity, submitted to J. Geophys. Res., 2009. Staehelin, J., Kegel, R., and Harris, N. R.: Trend analysis of the homogenized total ozone series of Arosa (Switzerland), 1929-1996, J. Geophys. Res., 103(D7), 8389-8400, doi:10.1029/97JD03650, 1998a. Staehelin, J., Renaud, A., Bader, J., McPeters, R., Viatte, P., Hoegger, B., Bugnion, V., Giroud, M., and Schill, H.: Total ozone series at Arosa (Switzerland): Homogenization and data comparison, J. Geophys. Res., 103(D5), 5827-5842, doi:10.1029/97JD02402, 1998b.

Can animal habitat use patterns influence their vulnerability to extreme climate events? An estuarine sportfish case study.

PubMed

Boucek, Ross E; Heithaus, Michael R; Santos, Rolando; Stevens, Philip; Rehage, Jennifer S

2017-10-01

Global climate forecasts predict changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme climate events (ECEs). The capacity for specific habitat patches within a landscape to modulate stressors from extreme climate events, and animal distribution throughout habitat matrices during events, could influence the degree of population level effects following the passage of ECEs. Here, we ask (i) does the intensity of stressors of an ECE vary across a landscape? And (ii) Do habitat use patterns of a mobile species influence their vulnerability to ECEs? Specifically, we measured how extreme cold spells might interact with temporal variability in habitat use to affect populations of a tropical, estuarine-dependent large-bodied fish Common Snook, within Everglades National Park estuaries (FL US). We examined temperature variation across the estuary during cold disturbances with different degrees of severity, including an extreme cold spell. Second, we quantified Snook distribution patterns when the passage of ECEs is most likely to occur from 2012 to 2016 using passive acoustic tracking. Our results revealed spatial heterogeneity in the intensity of temperature declines during cold disturbances, with some habitats being consistently 3-5°C colder than others. Surprisingly, Snook distributions during periods of greatest risk to experience an extreme cold event varied among years. During the winters of 2013-2014 and 2014-2015 a greater proportion of Snook occurred in the colder habitats, while the winters of 2012-2013 and 2015-2016 featured more Snook observed in the warmest habitats. This study shows that Snook habitat use patterns could influence vulnerability to extreme cold events, however, whether Snook habitat use increases or decreases their vulnerability to disturbance depends on the year, creating temporally dynamic vulnerability. Faunal global change research should address the spatially explicit nature of extreme climate events and animal habitat use patterns to identify potential mechanisms that may influence population effects following these disturbances. Published 2017. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Neighboring extremals of dynamic optimization problems with path equality constraints

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lee, A. Y.

1988-01-01

Neighboring extremals of dynamic optimization problems with path equality constraints and with an unknown parameter vector are considered in this paper. With some simplifications, the problem is reduced to solving a linear, time-varying two-point boundary-value problem with integral path equality constraints. A modified backward sweep method is used to solve this problem. Two example problems are solved to illustrate the validity and usefulness of the solution technique.

Advanced Seal Development for Large Industrial Gas Turbines

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chupp, Raymond E.

2006-01-01

Efforts are in progress to develop advanced sealing for large utility industrial gas turbine engines (combustion turbines). Such seals have been under developed for some time for aero gas turbines. It is desired to transition this technology to combustion turbines. Brush seals, film riding face and circumferential seals, and other dynamic and static sealing approaches are being incorporated into gas turbines for aero applications by several engine manufacturers. These seals replace labyrinth or other seals with significantly reduced leakage rates. For utility industrial gas turbines, leakage reduction with advanced sealing can be even greater with the enormous size of the components. Challenges to transitioning technology include: extremely long operating times between overhauls; infrequent but large radial and axial excursions; difficulty in coating larger components; and maintenance, installation, and durability requirements. Advanced sealing is part of the Advanced Turbine Systems (ATS) engine development being done under a cooperative agreement between Westinghouse and the US Department of Energy, Office of Fossil Energy. Seal development focuses on various types of seals in the 501ATS engine both at dynamic and static locations. Each development includes rig testing of candidate designs and subsequent engine validation testing of prototype seals. This presentation gives an update of the ongoing ATS sealing efforts with special emphasis on brush seals.

Mutational Effects and Population Dynamics During Viral Adaptation Challenge Current Models

PubMed Central

Miller, Craig R.; Joyce, Paul; Wichman, Holly A.

2011-01-01

Adaptation in haploid organisms has been extensively modeled but little tested. Using a microvirid bacteriophage (ID11), we conducted serial passage adaptations at two bottleneck sizes (104 and 106), followed by fitness assays and whole-genome sequencing of 631 individual isolates. Extensive genetic variation was observed including 22 beneficial, several nearly neutral, and several deleterious mutations. In the three large bottleneck lines, up to eight different haplotypes were observed in samples of 23 genomes from the final time point. The small bottleneck lines were less diverse. The small bottleneck lines appeared to operate near the transition between isolated selective sweeps and conditions of complex dynamics (e.g., clonal interference). The large bottleneck lines exhibited extensive interference and less stochasticity, with multiple beneficial mutations establishing on a variety of backgrounds. Several leapfrog events occurred. The distribution of first-step adaptive mutations differed significantly from the distribution of second-steps, and a surprisingly large number of second-step beneficial mutations were observed on a highly fit first-step background. Furthermore, few first-step mutations appeared as second-steps and second-steps had substantially smaller selection coefficients. Collectively, the results indicate that the fitness landscape falls between the extremes of smooth and fully uncorrelated, violating the assumptions of many current mutational landscape models. PMID:21041559

Homogeneous SPC/E water nucleation in large molecular dynamics simulations.

PubMed

Angélil, Raymond; Diemand, Jürg; Tanaka, Kyoko K; Tanaka, Hidekazu

2015-08-14

We perform direct large molecular dynamics simulations of homogeneous SPC/E water nucleation, using up to ∼ 4 ⋅ 10(6) molecules. Our large system sizes allow us to measure extremely low and accurate nucleation rates, down to ∼ 10(19) cm(-3) s(-1), helping close the gap between experimentally measured rates ∼ 10(17) cm(-3) s(-1). We are also able to precisely measure size distributions, sticking efficiencies, cluster temperatures, and cluster internal densities. We introduce a new functional form to implement the Yasuoka-Matsumoto nucleation rate measurement technique (threshold method). Comparison to nucleation models shows that classical nucleation theory over-estimates nucleation rates by a few orders of magnitude. The semi-phenomenological nucleation model does better, under-predicting rates by at worst a factor of 24. Unlike what has been observed in Lennard-Jones simulations, post-critical clusters have temperatures consistent with the run average temperature. Also, we observe that post-critical clusters have densities very slightly higher, ∼ 5%, than bulk liquid. We re-calibrate a Hale-type J vs. S scaling relation using both experimental and simulation data, finding remarkable consistency in over 30 orders of magnitude in the nucleation rate range and 180 K in the temperature range.

A numerical study of local variations in tidal regime of Tagus estuary, Portugal.

PubMed

Dias, João Miguel; Valentim, Juliana Marques; Sousa, Magda Catarina

2013-01-01

Tidal dynamics of shallow estuaries and lagoons is a complex matter that has attracted the attention of a large number of researchers over the last few decades. The main purpose of the present work is to study the intricate tidal dynamics of the Tagus estuary, which states as the largest estuary of the Iberian Peninsula and one of the most important wetlands in Portugal and Europe. Tagus has large areas of low depth and a remarkable geomorphology, both determining the complex propagation of tidal waves along the estuary of unknown manner. A non-linear two-dimensional vertically integrated hydrodynamic model was considered to be adequate to simulate its hydrodynamics and an application developed from the SIMSYS2D model was applied to study the tidal propagation along the estuary. The implementation and calibration of this model revealed its accuracy to predict tidal properties along the entire system. Several model runs enabled the analysis of the local variations in tidal dynamics, through the interpretation of amplitude and phase patterns of the main tidal constituents, tidal asymmetry, tidal ellipses, form factor and tidal dissipation. Results show that Tagus estuary tidal dynamics is extremely dependent on an estuarine resonance mode for the semi-diurnal constituents that induce important tidal characteristics. Besides, the estuarine coastline features and topography determines the changes in tidal propagation along the estuary, which therefore result essentially from a balance between convergence/divergence and friction and advection effects, besides the resonance effects.

A Numerical Study of Local Variations in Tidal Regime of Tagus Estuary, Portugal

PubMed Central

Dias, João Miguel; Valentim, Juliana Marques; Sousa, Magda Catarina

2013-01-01

Tidal dynamics of shallow estuaries and lagoons is a complex matter that has attracted the attention of a large number of researchers over the last few decades. The main purpose of the present work is to study the intricate tidal dynamics of the Tagus estuary, which states as the largest estuary of the Iberian Peninsula and one of the most important wetlands in Portugal and Europe. Tagus has large areas of low depth and a remarkable geomorphology, both determining the complex propagation of tidal waves along the estuary of unknown manner. A non-linear two-dimensional vertically integrated hydrodynamic model was considered to be adequate to simulate its hydrodynamics and an application developed from the SIMSYS2D model was applied to study the tidal propagation along the estuary. The implementation and calibration of this model revealed its accuracy to predict tidal properties along the entire system. Several model runs enabled the analysis of the local variations in tidal dynamics, through the interpretation of amplitude and phase patterns of the main tidal constituents, tidal asymmetry, tidal ellipses, form factor and tidal dissipation. Results show that Tagus estuary tidal dynamics is extremely dependent on an estuarine resonance mode for the semi-diurnal constituents that induce important tidal characteristics. Besides, the estuarine coastline features and topography determines the changes in tidal propagation along the estuary, which therefore result essentially from a balance between convergence/divergence and friction and advection effects, besides the resonance effects. PMID:24312474

Opinion dynamics in two dimensions: domain coarsening leads to stable bi-polarization and anomalous scaling exponents

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Velásquez-Rojas, F.; Vazquez, F.

2018-04-01

We study an opinion dynamics model that explores the competition between persuasion and compromise in a population of agents with nearest-neighbor interactions on a two-dimensional square lattice. Each agent can hold either a positive or a negative opinion orientation, and can have two levels of intensity—moderate and extremist. When two interacting agents have the same orientation they become extremists with persuasion probability p, while if they have opposite orientations they become moderate with compromise probability q. These updating rules lead to the formation of same-opinion domains with a coarsening dynamics that depends on the ratio r  =  p/q. The population initially evolves to a centralized state for small r, where domains are composed of moderate agents and coarsening is without surface tension, and to a bi-polarized state for large r, where domains are formed by extremist agents and coarsening is driven by curvature. Consensus in an extreme opinion is finally reached in a time that scales with the population size N and r as for small r and as for large r. Bi-polarization could be quite stable when the system falls into a striped state where agents organize into single-opinion horizontal, vertical or diagonal bands. An analysis of the stripe dynamics towards consensus allows us to obtain an approximate expression for τ, which shows that the exponent 1.64 is a result of the diffusion of the stripe interfaces combined with their roughness properties.

Evaluation of Nevada Test Site Ground Motion and Rock Property Data to Bound Ground Motions at the Yucca Mountain Repository

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hutchings, L J; Foxall, W; Rambo, J

2005-02-14

Yucca Mountain licensing will require estimation of ground motions from probabilistic seismic hazard analyses (PSHA) with annual probabilities of exceedance on the order of 10{sup -6} to 10{sup -7} per year or smaller, which correspond to much longer earthquake return periods than most previous PSHA studies. These long return periods for the Yucca Mountain PSHA result in estimates of ground motion that are extremely high ({approx} 10 g) and that are believed to be physically unrealizable. However, there is at present no generally accepted method to bound ground motions either by showing that the physical properties of materials cannot maintainmore » such extreme motions, or the energy release by the source for such large motions is physically impossible. The purpose of this feasibility study is to examine recorded ground motion and rock property data from nuclear explosions to determine its usefulness for studying the ground motion from extreme earthquakes. The premise is that nuclear explosions are an extreme energy density source, and that the recorded ground motion will provide useful information about the limits of ground motion from extreme earthquakes. The data were categorized by the source and rock properties, and evaluated as to what extent non-linearity in the material has affected the recordings. They also compiled existing results of non-linear dynamic modeling of the explosions carried out by LLNL and other institutions. They conducted an extensive literature review to outline current understanding of extreme ground motion. They also analyzed the data in terms of estimating maximum ground motions at Yucca Mountain.« less

Evaluation of Nevada Test Site Ground Motion and Rock Property Data to Bound Ground Motions at the Yucca Mountain Repository

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hutchings, L H; Foxall, W; Rambo, J

2005-03-09

Yucca Mountain licensing will require estimation of ground motions from probabilistic seismic hazard analyses (PSHA) with annual probabilities of exceedance on the order of 10{sup -6} to 10{sup -7} per year or smaller, which correspond to much longer earthquake return periods than most previous PSHA studies. These long return periods for the Yucca Mountain PSHA result in estimates of ground motion that are extremely high ({approx} 10 g) and that are believed to be physically unrealizable. However, there is at present no generally accepted method to bound ground motions either by showing that the physical properties of materials cannot maintainmore » such extreme motions, or the energy release by the source for such large motions is physically impossible. The purpose of this feasibility study is to examine recorded ground motion and rock property data from nuclear explosions to determine its usefulness for studying the ground motion from extreme earthquakes. The premise is that nuclear explosions are an extreme energy density source, and that the recorded ground motion will provide useful information about the limits of ground motion from extreme earthquakes. The data were categorized by the source and rock properties, and evaluated as to what extent non-linearity in the material has affected the recordings. They also compiled existing results of non-linear dynamic modeling of the explosions carried out by LLNL and other institutions. They conducted an extensive literature review to outline current understanding of extreme ground motion. They also analyzed the data in terms of estimating maximum ground motions at Yucca Mountain.« less

Association between frontal plane knee control and lower extremity injuries: a prospective study on young team sport athletes

PubMed Central

Pasanen, Kati; Krosshaug, Tron; Vasankari, Tommi; Kannus, Pekka; Heinonen, Ari; Kujala, Urho M; Avela, Janne; Perttunen, Jarmo; Parkkari, Jari

2018-01-01

Background/aim Poor frontal plane knee control can manifest as increased dynamic knee valgus during athletic tasks. The purpose of this study was to investigate the association between frontal plane knee control and the risk of acute lower extremity injuries. In addition, we wanted to study if the single-leg squat (SLS) test can be used as a screening tool to identify athletes with an increased injury risk. Methods A total of 306 basketball and floorball players participated in the baseline SLS test and a 12-month injury registration follow-up. Acute lower extremity time-loss injuries were registered. Frontal plane knee projection angles (FPKPA) during the SLS were calculated using a two-dimensional video analysis. Results Athletes displaying a high FPKPA were 2.7 times more likely to sustain a lower extremity injury (adjusted OR 2.67, 95% CI 1.23 to 5.83) and 2.4 times more likely to sustain an ankle injury (OR 2.37, 95% CI 1.13 to 4.98). There was no statistically significant association between FPKPA and knee injury (OR 1.49, 95% CI 0.56 to 3.98). The receiver operating characteristic curve analyses indicated poor combined sensitivity and specificity when FPKPA was used as a screening test for lower extremity injuries (area under the curve of 0.59) and ankle injuries (area under the curve of 0.58). Conclusions Athletes displaying a large FPKPA in the SLS test had an elevated risk of acute lower extremity and ankle injuries. However, the SLS test is not sensitive and specific enough to be used as a screening tool for future injury risk. PMID:29387448

Extreme Precipitation, Stormwater, and Flooding in King County: Co-producing Research to Support Adaptation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mauger, G. S.; Lorente-Plazas, R.; Salathe, E. P., Jr.; Mitchell, T. P.; Simmonds, J.; Lee, S. Y.; Hegewisch, K.; Warner, M.; Won, J.

2017-12-01

King County has experienced 12 federally declared flood disasters since 1990, and tens of thousands of county residents commute through, live, and work in floodplains. In addition to flooding, stormwater is a critical management challenge, exacerbated by aging infrastructure, combined sewer and drainage systems, and continued development. Even absent the effects of climate change these are challenging management issues. Recent studies clearly point to an increase in precipitation extremes for the Pacific Northwest (e.g., Warner et al. 2015). Yet very little information is available on the magnitude and spatial distribution of this change. Others clearly show that local-scale changes in extreme precipitation can only be accurately quantified with dynamical downscaling, i.e.: using a regional climate model. This talk will describe a suite of research and adaptation efforts developed in a close collaboration between King County and the UW Climate Impacts Group. Building on past collaborations, research efforts were defined in collaboration with King County managers, addressing three key science questions: (1) How are the mesoscale variations in extreme precipitation modulated by changes in large-scale weather conditions? (2) How will precipitation extremes change? This was assessed via two new high-resolution regional model projections using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) mesoscale model (Skamarock et al. 2005). (3) What are the implications for stormwater and flooding in King County? This was assessed by both exploring the statistics of hourly precipitation extremes in the new projections, as well as new hydrologic modeling to assess the implications for river flooding. The talk will present results from these efforts, review the implications for King County planning and infrastructure, and synthesize lessons learned and opportunities for additional work.

Disinfection byproduct precursor dynamics and water treatability during an extreme flooding event in a coastal blackwater river in southeastern United States.

PubMed

Ruecker, A; Uzun, H; Karanfil, T; Tsui, M T K; Chow, A T

2017-12-01

Coastal blackwater rivers, characterized by high concentrations of natural organic matter, are source water for millions of people in the southeastern US. In October 2015, large areas of coastal South Carolina were flooded by Hurricane Joaquin. This so-called "thousand-year" rainfall mobilized and flushed large amounts of terrestrial organic matter and associated pollutants (e.g. mercury) into source water, affecting water quality and safety of municipal water supply. To understand the dynamics of water quality and water treatability during this extreme flood, water samples were collected from Waccamaw River (a typical blackwater river in the southeastern US) during rising limb, peak discharge, falling limb, and base flow. Despite decreasing water flow after peak discharge, dissolved organic carbon (DOC) levels (increased by up to 125%), and formation potentials of trihalomethanes and haloacetic acids (increased by up to 150%) remained high for an extended period of time (>eight weeks after peak discharge), while variation in the N-nitrosodimethylamine (NDMA) FP was negligible. Coagulation with alum and ferric at optimal dosage significantly reduced concentrations of DOC by 51-76%, but up to 10 mg/L of DOC still remained in treated waters. For an extended period of time, elevated levels of THMs (71-448 μg/L) and HAAs (88-406 μg/L) were quantified in laboratory chlorination experiments under uniform formation conditions (UFC), exceeding the United States Environmental Protection Agency's (USEPA) maximum contaminant level of 80 and 60 μg/L, respectively. Results demonstrated that populations in coastal cities are at high risk with disinfection by-products (DBPs) under the changing climate. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Weathering, erosion and fluvial transfers of particulate and dissolved materials from the Taiwan orogen

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hovius, Niels; Galy, Albert; Hilton, Robert; West, Joshua; Chen, Hongey; Horng, Ming-Jame; Chen, Meng-Chiang

2010-05-01

Systematic monitoring of river loads helps refine and extend the map of internal dynamics and external feedbacks in Earth's surface and near-surface system. Our focus is on Taiwan where hillslope mass wasting and fluvial sediment transport are driven by earthquakes and cyclonic storms. The biggest trigger events cause instantaneous erosion and seed a weakness in the landscape that is removed over time in predictable fashion. This gives rise to patterns of erosion that can not be understood in terms of bulk characteristics of climate, such as average annual precipitation. Instead, these patterns reflect the distribution and history of seismicity and extreme precipitation. For example, the 1999 Mw 7.6 Chi-Chi earthquake has resulted in elevated rates of sediment transport that decayed to normal values over seven years since the earthquake. Very large typhoons, with enhanced precipitation due to a monsoonal feed, have caused a similar, temporary deviation from normal catchment dynamics. Crucially, these events do not only mobilize large quantities of clastic sediment, but they also harvest particulate organic carbon (POC) from rock mass, soils and the biosphere. In Taiwan, most non-fossil POC is carried in hyperpycnal storm floods. This may promote rapid burial and preservation of POC in turbidites, representing a draw down of CO2 from the atmosphere that is potentially larger than that by silicate weathering in the same domain. Oxidation of fossil POC during exhumation and surface transport could offset this effect, but in Taiwan the rate of preservation of fossil POC is extremely high, due to rapid erosion and short fluvial transfer paths. Meanwhile, coarse woody debris flushed from the Taiwan mountains is probably not buried efficiently in geological deposits, representing a concentrated flux of nutrients to coastal and marine environments instead.

Characterization of extreme air-sea turbulent fluxes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gulev, Sergey; Belyaev, Konstantin

2017-04-01

Extreme ocean-atmosphere turbulent fluxes play a critical role in the convective processes in the mid and subpolar latitudes and may also affect a variety of atmospheric processes, such as generation and re-intensification of extreme cyclones in the areas of the mid latitude storm tracks. From the ocean dynamics perspective, specifically for quantifying extreme vertical mixing, characterization of the extreme fluxes requires, besides estimation of the extreme events, also consideration of the relative extremeness of surface fluxes and their timing, e.g. the duration of periods of high surface fluxes. In order to comprehensively characterize extreme turbulent fluxes at sea surface we propose a formalism based upon probability density distributions of surface turbulent fluxes and flux-related variables. Individual absolute flux extremes were derived using Modified Fisher-Tippett (MFT) distribution of turbulent fluxes. Then, we extend this distribution to the fractional distribution, characterizing the fraction of time-integrated turbulent heat flux provided by the fluxes exceeding a given percentile. Finally, we consider the time durations during which fluxes of a given intensity provide extreme accumulations of heat loss from the surface. For estimation of these characteristics of surface fluxes we use fluxes recomputed from the state variables available from modern era reanalyses (ERA-Interim, MERRA and CFSR) for the period from 1979 onwards. Applications of the formalism to the VOS (Voluntary Observing Ship) - based surface fluxes are also considered. We discuss application of the new metrics of mesoscale and synoptic variability of surface fluxes to the dynamics of mixed layer depth in the North Atlantic.

Dynamic balance performance and noncontact lower extremity injury in college football players: an initial study.

PubMed

Butler, Robert J; Lehr, Michael E; Fink, Michael L; Kiesel, Kyle B; Plisky, Phillip J

2013-09-01

Field expedient screening tools that can identify individuals at an elevated risk for injury are needed to minimize time loss in American football players. Previous research has suggested that poor dynamic balance may be associated with an elevated risk for injury in athletes; however, this has yet to be examined in college football players. To determine if dynamic balance deficits are associated with an elevated risk of injury in collegiate football players. It was hypothesized that football players with lower performance and increased asymmetry in dynamic balance would be at an elevated risk for sustaining a noncontact lower extremity injury. Prospective cohort study. Fifty-nine collegiate American football players volunteered for this study. Demographic information, injury history, and dynamic balance testing performance were collected, and noncontact lower extremity injuries were recorded over the course of the season. Receiver operator characteristic curves were calculated based on performance on the Star Excursion Balance Test (SEBT), including composite score and asymmetry, to determine the population-specific risk cut-off point. Relative risk was then calculated based on these variables, as well as previous injury. A cut-off point of 89.6% composite score on the SEBT optimized the sensitivity (100%) and specificity (71.7%). A college football player who scored below 89.6% was 3.5 times more likely to get injured. Poor performance on the SEBT may be related to an increased risk for sustaining a noncontact lower extremity injury over the course of a competitive American football season. College football players should be screened preseason using the SEBT to identify those at an elevated risk for injury based upon dynamic balance performance to implement injury mitigation strategies to this specific subgroup of athletes.

Semistable extremal ground states for nonlinear evolution equations in unbounded domains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodríguez-Bernal, Aníbal; Vidal-López, Alejandro

2008-02-01

In this paper we show that dissipative reaction-diffusion equations in unbounded domains posses extremal semistable ground states equilibria, which bound asymptotically the global dynamics. Uniqueness of such positive ground state and their approximation by extremal equilibria in bounded domains is also studied. The results are then applied to the important case of logistic equations.

Hamiltonian flows with random-walk behaviour originating from zero-sum games and fictitious play

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Strien, Sebastian

2011-06-01

In this paper we introduce Hamiltonian dynamics, inspired by zero-sum games (best response and fictitious play dynamics). The Hamiltonian functions we consider are continuous and piecewise affine (and of a very simple form). It follows that the corresponding Hamiltonian vector fields are discontinuous and multi-valued. Differential equations with discontinuities along a hyperplane are often called 'Filippov systems', and there is a large literature on such systems, see for example (di Bernardo et al 2008 Theory and applications Piecewise-Smooth Dynamical Systems (Applied Mathematical Sciences vol 163) (London: Springer); Kunze 2000 Non-Smooth Dynamical Systems (Lecture Notes in Mathematics vol 1744) (Berlin: Springer); Leine and Nijmeijer 2004 Dynamics and Bifurcations of Non-smooth Mechanical Systems (Lecture Notes in Applied and Computational Mechanics vol 18) (Berlin: Springer)). The special feature of the systems we consider here is that they have discontinuities along a large number of intersecting hyperplanes. Nevertheless, somewhat surprisingly, the flow corresponding to such a vector field exists, is unique and continuous. We believe that these vector fields deserve attention, because it turns out that the resulting dynamics are rather different from those found in more classically defined Hamiltonian dynamics. The vector field is extremely simple: outside codimension-one hyperplanes it is piecewise constant and so the flow phit piecewise a translation (without stationary points). Even so, the dynamics can be rather rich and complicated as a detailed study of specific examples show (see for example theorems 7.1 and 7.2 and also (Ostrovski and van Strien 2011 Regular Chaotic Dynf. 16 129-54)). In the last two sections of the paper we give some applications to game theory, and finish with posing a version of the Palis conjecture in the context of the class of non-smooth systems studied in this paper. To Jacob Palis on his 70th birthday.

The effects of climatic fluctuations and extreme events on running water ecosystems

PubMed Central

Woodward, Guy; Bonada, Núria; Brown, Lee E.; Death, Russell G.; Durance, Isabelle; Gray, Clare; Hladyz, Sally; Ledger, Mark E.; Milner, Alexander M.; Ormerod, Steve J.; Thompson, Ross M.

2016-01-01

Most research on the effects of environmental change in freshwaters has focused on incremental changes in average conditions, rather than fluctuations or extreme events such as heatwaves, cold snaps, droughts, floods or wildfires, which may have even more profound consequences. Such events are commonly predicted to increase in frequency, intensity and duration with global climate change, with many systems being exposed to conditions with no recent historical precedent. We propose a mechanistic framework for predicting potential impacts of environmental fluctuations on running-water ecosystems by scaling up effects of fluctuations from individuals to entire ecosystems. This framework requires integration of four key components: effects of the environment on individual metabolism, metabolic and biomechanical constraints on fluctuating species interactions, assembly dynamics of local food webs, and mapping the dynamics of the meta-community onto ecosystem function. We illustrate the framework by developing a mathematical model of environmental fluctuations on dynamically assembling food webs. We highlight (currently limited) empirical evidence for emerging insights and theoretical predictions. For example, widely supported predictions about the effects of environmental fluctuations are: high vulnerability of species with high per capita metabolic demands such as large-bodied ones at the top of food webs; simplification of food web network structure and impaired energetic transfer efficiency; and reduced resilience and top-down relative to bottom-up regulation of food web and ecosystem processes. We conclude by identifying key questions and challenges that need to be addressed to develop more accurate and predictive bio-assessments of the effects of fluctuations, and implications of fluctuations for management practices in an increasingly uncertain world. PMID:27114576

Evaluating the Large-Scale Environment of Extreme Events Using Reanalyses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bosilovich, M. G.; Schubert, S. D.; Koster, R. D.; da Silva, A. M., Jr.; Eichmann, A.

2014-12-01

Extreme conditions and events have always been a long standing concern in weather forecasting and national security. While some evidence indicates extreme weather will increase in global change scenarios, extremes are often related to the large scale atmospheric circulation, but also occurring infrequently. Reanalyses assimilate substantial amounts of weather data and a primary strength of reanalysis data is the representation of the large-scale atmospheric environment. In this effort, we link the occurrences of extreme events or climate indicators to the underlying regional and global weather patterns. Now, with greater than 3o years of data, reanalyses can include multiple cases of extreme events, and thereby identify commonality among the weather to better characterize the large-scale to global environment linked to the indicator or extreme event. Since these features are certainly regionally dependent, and also, the indicators of climate are continually being developed, we outline various methods to analyze the reanalysis data and the development of tools to support regional evaluation of the data. Here, we provide some examples of both individual case studies and composite studies of similar events. For example, we will compare the large scale environment for Northeastern US extreme precipitation with that of highest mean precipitation seasons. Likewise, southerly winds can shown to be a major contributor to very warm days in the Northeast winter. While most of our development has involved NASA's MERRA reanalysis, we are also looking forward to MERRA-2 which includes several new features that greatly improve the representation of weather and climate, especially for the regions and sectors involved in the National Climate Assessment.

High Fidelity Simulations of Large-Scale Wireless Networks

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Onunkwo, Uzoma; Benz, Zachary

The worldwide proliferation of wireless connected devices continues to accelerate. There are 10s of billions of wireless links across the planet with an additional explosion of new wireless usage anticipated as the Internet of Things develops. Wireless technologies do not only provide convenience for mobile applications, but are also extremely cost-effective to deploy. Thus, this trend towards wireless connectivity will only continue and Sandia must develop the necessary simulation technology to proactively analyze the associated emerging vulnerabilities. Wireless networks are marked by mobility and proximity-based connectivity. The de facto standard for exploratory studies of wireless networks is discrete event simulationsmore » (DES). However, the simulation of large-scale wireless networks is extremely difficult due to prohibitively large turnaround time. A path forward is to expedite simulations with parallel discrete event simulation (PDES) techniques. The mobility and distance-based connectivity associated with wireless simulations, however, typically doom PDES and fail to scale (e.g., OPNET and ns-3 simulators). We propose a PDES-based tool aimed at reducing the communication overhead between processors. The proposed solution will use light-weight processes to dynamically distribute computation workload while mitigating communication overhead associated with synchronizations. This work is vital to the analytics and validation capabilities of simulation and emulation at Sandia. We have years of experience in Sandia’s simulation and emulation projects (e.g., MINIMEGA and FIREWHEEL). Sandia’s current highly-regarded capabilities in large-scale emulations have focused on wired networks, where two assumptions prevent scalable wireless studies: (a) the connections between objects are mostly static and (b) the nodes have fixed locations.« less

The Extremely Metal-Poor Dwarf Galaxy AGC 198691

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hirschauer, Alec S.; Salzer, John Joseph; Cannon, John M.; Skillman, Evan D.; SHIELD II Team

2016-01-01

We present spectroscopic observations of the nearby dwarf irregular galaxy AGC 198691. This object is part of the Survey of HI in Extremely Low-Mass Dwarfs (SHIELD) sample, which consists of ultra-low HI mass galaxies discovered by the Arecibo Legacy Fast-Acting ALFA (ALFALFA) survey. SHIELD is a multi-configuration Expanded Very Large Array (EVLA) study of the neutral gas content and dynamics of galaxies with HI masses in the range of 106-107 M⊙. Our spectral data were obtained using the new high-throughput KPNO Ohio State Multi-Object Spectrograph (KOSMOS) on the Mayall 4-m telescope as part of a systematic study of the nebular abundances in the SHIELD galaxy sample. These observations enable measurement of the temperature sensitive [OIII]λ4363 line and hence the determination of a "direct" oxygen abundance for AGC 198691. We find this system to be an extremely metal-deficient (XMD) galaxy with an oxygen abundance comparable to such objects as I Zw 18, SBS 0335-052W, Leo P, and DDO 68 - the lowest metallicity star-forming systems known. It is worth noting that two of the five lowest-abundance galaxies currently recognized were discovered via the ALFALFA blind HI survey. These XMD galaxies are potential analogues to the first star-forming systems, which through hierarchical accretion processes built up the large galaxies we observe today in the local Universe. Detailed analysis of such XMD systems offers observational constraint to models of galactic evolution and star formation histories to allow a better understanding of the processes that govern the chemical evolution of low-mass galaxies.

Large-Scale Atmospheric Circulation Patterns Associated with Temperature Extremes as a Basis for Model Evaluation: Methodological Overview and Results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loikith, P. C.; Broccoli, A. J.; Waliser, D. E.; Lintner, B. R.; Neelin, J. D.

2015-12-01

Anomalous large-scale circulation patterns often play a key role in the occurrence of temperature extremes. For example, large-scale circulation can drive horizontal temperature advection or influence local processes that lead to extreme temperatures, such as by inhibiting moderating sea breezes, promoting downslope adiabatic warming, and affecting the development of cloud cover. Additionally, large-scale circulation can influence the shape of temperature distribution tails, with important implications for the magnitude of future changes in extremes. As a result of the prominent role these patterns play in the occurrence and character of extremes, the way in which temperature extremes change in the future will be highly influenced by if and how these patterns change. It is therefore critical to identify and understand the key patterns associated with extremes at local to regional scales in the current climate and to use this foundation as a target for climate model validation. This presentation provides an overview of recent and ongoing work aimed at developing and applying novel approaches to identifying and describing the large-scale circulation patterns associated with temperature extremes in observations and using this foundation to evaluate state-of-the-art global and regional climate models. Emphasis is given to anomalies in sea level pressure and 500 hPa geopotential height over North America using several methods to identify circulation patterns, including self-organizing maps and composite analysis. Overall, evaluation results suggest that models are able to reproduce observed patterns associated with temperature extremes with reasonable fidelity in many cases. Model skill is often highest when and where synoptic-scale processes are the dominant mechanisms for extremes, and lower where sub-grid scale processes (such as those related to topography) are important. Where model skill in reproducing these patterns is high, it can be inferred that extremes are being simulated for plausible physical reasons, boosting confidence in future projections of temperature extremes. Conversely, where model skill is identified to be lower, caution should be exercised in interpreting future projections.

Assessment of the effects of multiple extreme floods on flow and transport processes under competing flood protection and environmental management strategies.

PubMed

Tu, Tongbi; Carr, Kara J; Ercan, Ali; Trinh, Toan; Kavvas, M Levent; Nosacka, John

2017-12-31

Extreme floods are regarded as one of the most catastrophic natural hazards and can result in significant morphological changes induced by pronounced sediment erosion and deposition processes over the landscape. However, the effects of extreme floods of different return intervals on the floodplain and river channel morphological evolution with the associated sediment transport processes are not well explored. Furthermore, different basin management action plans, such as engineering structure modifications, may also greatly affect the flood inundation, sediment transport, solute transport and morphological processes within extreme flood events. In this study, a coupled two-dimensional hydrodynamic, sediment transport and morphological model is applied to evaluate the impact of different river and basin management strategies on the flood inundation, sediment transport dynamics and morphological changes within extreme flood events of different magnitudes. The 10-year, 50-year, 100-year and 200-year floods are evaluated for the Lower Cache Creek system in California under existing condition and a potential future modification scenario. Modeling results showed that select locations of flood inundation within the study area tend to experience larger inundation depth and more sediment is likely to be trapped in the study area under potential modification scenario. The proposed two dimensional flow and sediment transport modeling approach implemented with a variety of inflow conditions can provide guidance to decision-makers when considering implementation of potential modification plans, especially as they relate to competing management strategies of large water bodies, such as the modeling area in this study. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A New Sample of Cool Subdwarfs from SDSS: Properties and Kinematics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Savcheva, Antonia; West, Andrew A.; Bochanski, John J.

2014-06-01

We present a new sample of M subdwarfs compiled from the 7th data re- lease of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey. With 3517 new subdwarfs, this new sample significantly increases the number the existing sample of low-mass subdwarfs. This catalog includes unprecedentedly large numbers of extreme and ultra sudwarfs. Here, we present the catalog and the statistical analysis we perform. Subdwarf template spectra are derived. We show color-color and reduced proper motion diagrams of the three metallicity classes, which are shown to separate from the disk dwarf population. The extreme and ultra subdwarfs are seen at larger values of reduced proper motion as expected for more dynamically heated populations. We determine 3D kinematics for all of the stars with proper motions. The color-magnitude diagrams show a clear separation of the three metallicity classes with the ultra and extreme subdwarfs being significantly closer to the main sequence than the ordinary subdwarfs. All subdwarfs lie below and to the blue of the main sequence. Based on the average (U, V, W ) velocities and their dispersions, the extreme and ultra subdwarfs likely belong to the Galactic halo, while the ordinary subdwarfs are likely part of the old Galactic (or thick) disk. An extensive activity analy- sis of subdwarfs is performed using chromospheric Hα emission and 208 active subdwarfs are found. We show that while the activity fraction of subdwarfs rises with spectral class and levels off at the latest spectral classes, consistent with the behavior of M dwarfs, the extreme and ultra subdwarfs are basically flat.

Exceptional winter storms affecting Western Iberia and extremes: diagnosis, modelling and multi-model ensemble projection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liberato, M. L. R.; Pinto, J. G.; Gil, V.; Ramos, A. M.; Trigo, R. M.

2017-12-01

Extratropical cyclones dominate autumn and winter weather over Western Europe and particularly over the Iberian Peninsula. Intense, high-impact storms are one of the major weather risks in the region, mostly due to the simultaneous occurrence of high winds and extreme precipitation events. These intense extratropical cyclones may result in windstorm damage, flooding and coastal storm surges, with large societal impacts. In Portugal, due to the extensive human use of coastal areas, the natural and built coastal environments have been amongst the most affected. In this work several historical winter storms that adversely affected the Western Iberian Peninsula are studied in detail in order to contribute to an improved assessment of the characteristics of these events. The diagnosis has been performed based on instrumental daily precipitation and wind records, on satellite images, on reanalysis data and through model simulations. For several examples the synoptic evolution and upper-level dynamics analysis of physical processes controlling the life cycle of extratropical storms associated with the triggering of the considered extreme events has also been accomplished. Furthermore, the space-time variability of the exceptionally severe storms affecting Western Iberia over the last century and under three climate scenarios (the historical simulation, the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios) is presented. These studies contribute to improving the knowledge of atmospheric dynamics controlling the life cycle of midlatitude storms associated to severe weather (precipitation and wind) in the Iberian Peninsula. AcknowledgementsThis work is supported by the Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology (FCT), Portugal, through project UID/GEO/50019/2013 - Instituto Dom Luiz. A. M. Ramos is also supported by a FCT postdoctoral grant (FCT/DFRH/SFRH/BPD/84328/2012).

A supramolecular biomimetic skin combining a wide spectrum of mechanical properties and multiple sensory capabilities.

PubMed

Lei, Zhouyue; Wu, Peiyi

2018-03-19

Biomimetic skin-like materials, capable of adapting shapes to variable environments and sensing external stimuli, are of great significance in a wide range of applications, including artificial intelligence, soft robotics, and smart wearable devices. However, such highly sophisticated intelligence has been mainly found in natural creatures while rarely realized in artificial materials. Herein, we fabricate a type of biomimetic iontronics to imitate natural skins using supramolecular polyelectrolyte hydrogels. The dynamic viscoelastic networks provide the biomimetic skin with a wide spectrum of mechanical properties, including flexible reconfiguration ability, robust elasticity, extremely large stretchability, autonomous self-healability, and recyclability. Meanwhile, polyelectrolytes' ionic conductivity allows multiple sensory capabilities toward temperature, strain, and stress. This work provides not only insights into dynamic interactions and sensing mechanism of supramolecular iontronics, but may also promote the development of biomimetic skins with sophisticated intelligence similar to natural skins.

Nonadiabatic exchange dynamics during adiabatic frequency sweeps.

PubMed

Barbara, Thomas M

2016-04-01

A Bloch equation analysis that includes relaxation and exchange effects during an adiabatic frequency swept pulse is presented. For a large class of sweeps, relaxation can be incorporated using simple first order perturbation theory. For anisochronous exchange, new expressions are derived for exchange augmented rotating frame relaxation. For isochronous exchange between sites with distinct relaxation rate constants outside the extreme narrowing limit, simple criteria for adiabatic exchange are derived and demonstrate that frequency sweeps commonly in use may not be adiabatic with regard to exchange unless the exchange rates are much larger than the relaxation rates. Otherwise, accurate assessment of the sensitivity to exchange dynamics will require numerical integration of the rate equations. Examples of this situation are given for experimentally relevant parameters believed to hold for in-vivo tissue. These results are of significance in the study of exchange induced contrast in magnetic resonance imaging. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

How to form a millisecond magnetar? Magnetic field amplification in protoneutron stars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guilet, Jérôme; Müller, Ewald; Janka, Hans-Thomas; Rembiasz, Tomasz; Obergaulinger, Martin; Cerdá-Durán, Pablo; Aloy, Miguel-Angel

2017-02-01

Extremely strong magnetic fields of the order of 1015G are required to explain the properties of magnetars, the most magnetic neutron stars. Such a strong magnetic field is expected to play an important role for the dynamics of core-collapse supernovae, and in the presence of rapid rotation may power superluminous supernovae and hypernovae associated to long gamma-ray bursts. The origin of these strong magnetic fields remains, however, obscure and most likely requires an amplification over many orders of magnitude in the protoneutron star. One of the most promising agents is the magnetorotational instability (MRI), which can in principle amplify exponentially fast a weak initial magnetic field to a dynamically relevant strength. We describe our current understanding of the MRI in protoneutron stars and show recent results on its dependence on physical conditions specific to protoneutron stars such as neutrino radiation, strong buoyancy effects and large magnetic Prandtl number.

A vibration-based health monitoring program for a large and seismically vulnerable masonry dome

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pecorelli, M. L.; Ceravolo, R.; De Lucia, G.; Epicoco, R.

2017-05-01

Vibration-based health monitoring of monumental structures must rely on efficient and, as far as possible, automatic modal analysis procedures. Relatively low excitation energy provided by traffic, wind and other sources is usually sufficient to detect structural changes, as those produced by earthquakes and extreme events. Above all, in-operation modal analysis is a non-invasive diagnostic technique that can support optimal strategies for the preservation of architectural heritage, especially if complemented by model-driven procedures. In this paper, the preliminary steps towards a fully automated vibration-based monitoring of the world’s largest masonry oval dome (internal axes of 37.23 by 24.89 m) are presented. More specifically, the paper reports on signal treatment operations conducted to set up the permanent dynamic monitoring system of the dome and to realise a robust automatic identification procedure. Preliminary considerations on the effects of temperature on dynamic parameters are finally reported.

Observational constraints on black hole accretion disks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liang, Edison P.

1994-01-01

We review the empirical constraints on accretion disk models of stellar-mass black holes based on recent multiwavelength observational results. In addition to time-averaged emission spectra, the time evolutions of the intensity and spectrum provide critical information about the structure, stability, and dynamics of the disk. Using the basic thermal Keplerian disk paradigm, we consider in particular generalizations of the standard optically thin disk models needed to accommodate the extremely rich variety of dynamical phenomena exhibited by black hole candidates ranging from flares of electron-positron annihilations and quasiperiodic oscillations in the X-ray intensity to X-ray novae activity. These in turn provide probes of the disk structure and global geometry. The goal is to construct a single unified framework to interpret a large variety of black hole phenomena. This paper will concentrate on the interface between basic theory and observational data modeling.

Filtering of non-linear instabilities. [from finite difference solution of fluid dynamics equations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Khosla, P. K.; Rubin, S. G.

1979-01-01

For Courant numbers larger than one and cell Reynolds numbers larger than two, oscillations and in some cases instabilities are typically found with implicit numerical solutions of the fluid dynamics equations. This behavior has sometimes been associated with the loss of diagonal dominance of the coefficient matrix. It is shown here that these problems can in fact be related to the choice of the spatial differences, with the resulting instability related to aliasing or nonlinear interaction. Appropriate 'filtering' can reduce the intensity of these oscillations and in some cases possibly eliminate the instability. These filtering procedures are equivalent to a weighted average of conservation and non-conservation differencing. The entire spectrum of filtered equations retains a three-point character as well as second-order spatial accuracy. Burgers equation has been considered as a model. Several filters are examined in detail, and smooth solutions have been obtained for extremely large cell Reynolds numbers.

Dynamics of a 4x6-Meter Thin Film Elliptical Inflated Membrane for Space Applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Casiano, Matthew J.; Hamidzadeh, Hamid R.; Tinker, Michael L.; McConnaughey, Paul R. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

Dynamic characterization of a thin film inflatable elliptical structure is described in detail. A two-step finite element modeling approach in MSC/NASTRAN is utilized, consisting of (1) a nonlinear static pressurization procedure used to obtain the updated stiffness matrix, and (2) a modal "restart" eigen solution that uses the modified stiffness matrix. Unique problems encountered in modeling of this large Hexameter lightweight inflatable arc identified, including considerable difficulty in obtaining convergence in the nonlinear finite element pressurization solution. It was found that the extremely thin polyimide film material (.001 in or 1 mil) presents tremendous problems in obtaining a converged solution when internal pressure loading is applied. Approaches utilized to overcome these difficulties are described. Comparison of finite element predictions for frequency and mode shapes of the inflated structure with closed-form solutions for a flat pre-tensioned membrane indicate reasonable agreement.

Rational engineering of a mesohalophilic carbonic anhydrase to an extreme halotolerant biocatalyst

PubMed Central

Warden, Andrew C.; Williams, Michelle; Peat, Thomas S.; Seabrook, Shane A.; Newman, Janet; Dojchinov, Greg; Haritos, Victoria S.

2015-01-01

Enzymes expressed by highly salt-tolerant organisms show many modifications compared with salt-affected counterparts including biased amino acid and lower α-helix content, lower solvent accessibility and negative surface charge. Here, we show that halotolerance can be generated in an enzyme solely by modifying surface residues. Rational design of carbonic anhydrase II is undertaken in three stages replacing 18 residues in total, crystal structures confirm changes are confined to surface residues. Catalytic activities and thermal unfolding temperatures of the designed enzymes increase at high salt concentrations demonstrating their shift to halotolerance, whereas the opposite response is found in the wild-type enzyme. Molecular dynamics calculations reveal a key role for sodium ions in increasing halotolerant enzyme stability largely through interactions with the highly ordered first Na+ hydration shell. For the first time, an approach to generate extreme halotolerance, a trait with broad application in industrial biocatalysis, in a wild-type enzyme is demonstrated. PMID:26687908

Wavelength Comparisons

NASA Image and Video Library

2018-04-02

NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory ran together three sequences of the sun taken in three different extreme ultraviolet wavelengths to better illustrate how different features that appear in one sequence are difficult if not impossible to see in the others (Mar. 20-21, 2018). In the red sequence (304 Angstroms), we can see very small spicules and some small prominences at the sun's edge, which are not easy to see in the other two sequences. In the second clip (193 Angstroms), we can readily observe the large and dark coronal hole, though it is difficult to make out in the others. In the third clip (171 wavelengths), we can see strands of plasma waving above the surface, especially above the one small, but bright, active region near the right edge. And these are just three of the 10 extreme ultraviolet wavelengths in which SDO images the sun every 12 seconds every day. That's a lot of data and a lot of science. Movies are available at https://photojournal.jpl.nasa.gov/catalog/PIA22360

Extreme brain events: Higher-order statistics of brain resting activity and its relation with structural connectivity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amor, T. A.; Russo, R.; Diez, I.; Bharath, P.; Zirovich, M.; Stramaglia, S.; Cortes, J. M.; de Arcangelis, L.; Chialvo, D. R.

2015-09-01

The brain exhibits a wide variety of spatiotemporal patterns of neuronal activity recorded using functional magnetic resonance imaging as the so-called blood-oxygenated-level-dependent (BOLD) signal. An active area of work includes efforts to best describe the plethora of these patterns evolving continuously in the brain. Here we explore the third-moment statistics of the brain BOLD signals in the resting state as a proxy to capture extreme BOLD events. We find that the brain signal exhibits typically nonzero skewness, with positive values for cortical regions and negative values for subcortical regions. Furthermore, the combined analysis of structural and functional connectivity demonstrates that relatively more connected regions exhibit activity with high negative skewness. Overall, these results highlight the relevance of recent results emphasizing that the spatiotemporal location of the relatively large-amplitude events in the BOLD time series contains relevant information to reproduce a number of features of the brain dynamics during resting state in health and disease.

MaRIE: an experimental facility concept revolutionizing materials in extremes

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Barnes, Cris W

The Matter-Radiation Interactions in Extremes (MaRIE) project intends to create an experimental facility that will revolutionize the control of materials in extremes. That control extends to extreme regimes where solid material has failed and begins to flow - the regimes of fluid dynamics and turbulent mixing. This presentation introduces the MaRIE facility concept, demonstrates examples of the science case that determine its functional requirements, and kicks-off the discussion of the decadal scientific challenges of mixing in extremes, including those MaRIE might address.

Identification of large-scale meteorological patterns associated with extreme precipitation in the US northeast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Agel, Laurie; Barlow, Mathew; Feldstein, Steven B.; Gutowski, William J.

2018-03-01

Patterns of daily large-scale circulation associated with Northeast US extreme precipitation are identified using both k-means clustering (KMC) and Self-Organizing Maps (SOM) applied to tropopause height. The tropopause height provides a compact representation of the upper-tropospheric potential vorticity, which is closely related to the overall evolution and intensity of weather systems. Extreme precipitation is defined as the top 1% of daily wet-day observations at 35 Northeast stations, 1979-2008. KMC is applied on extreme precipitation days only, while the SOM algorithm is applied to all days in order to place the extreme results into the overall context of patterns for all days. Six tropopause patterns are identified through KMC for extreme day precipitation: a summertime tropopause ridge, a summertime shallow trough/ridge, a summertime shallow eastern US trough, a deeper wintertime eastern US trough, and two versions of a deep cold-weather trough located across the east-central US. Thirty SOM patterns for all days are identified. Results for all days show that 6 SOM patterns account for almost half of the extreme days, although extreme precipitation occurs in all SOM patterns. The same SOM patterns associated with extreme precipitation also routinely produce non-extreme precipitation; however, on extreme precipitation days the troughs, on average, are deeper and the downstream ridges more pronounced. Analysis of other fields associated with the large-scale patterns show various degrees of anomalously strong moisture transport preceding, and upward motion during, extreme precipitation events.

Extreme Mean and Its Applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Swaroop, R.; Brownlow, J. D.

1979-01-01

Extreme value statistics obtained from normally distributed data are considered. An extreme mean is defined as the mean of p-th probability truncated normal distribution. An unbiased estimate of this extreme mean and its large sample distribution are derived. The distribution of this estimate even for very large samples is found to be nonnormal. Further, as the sample size increases, the variance of the unbiased estimate converges to the Cramer-Rao lower bound. The computer program used to obtain the density and distribution functions of the standardized unbiased estimate, and the confidence intervals of the extreme mean for any data are included for ready application. An example is included to demonstrate the usefulness of extreme mean application.

Magnetic storms and solar flares: can be analysed within similar mathematical framework with other extreme events?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Balasis, Georgios; Potirakis, Stelios M.; Papadimitriou, Constantinos; Zitis, Pavlos I.; Eftaxias, Konstantinos

2015-04-01

The field of study of complex systems considers that the dynamics of complex systems are founded on universal principles that may be used to describe a great variety of scientific and technological approaches of different types of natural, artificial, and social systems. We apply concepts of the nonextensive statistical physics, on time-series data of observable manifestations of the underlying complex processes ending up to different extreme events, in order to support the suggestion that a dynamical analogy characterizes the generation of a single magnetic storm, solar flare, earthquake (in terms of pre-seismic electromagnetic signals) , epileptic seizure, and economic crisis. The analysis reveals that all the above mentioned different extreme events can be analyzed within similar mathematical framework. More precisely, we show that the populations of magnitudes of fluctuations included in all the above mentioned pulse-like-type time series follow the traditional Gutenberg-Richter law as well as a nonextensive model for earthquake dynamics, with similar nonextensive q-parameter values. Moreover, based on a multidisciplinary statistical analysis we show that the extreme events are characterized by crucial common symptoms, namely: (i) high organization, high compressibility, low complexity, high information content; (ii) strong persistency; and (iii) existence of clear preferred direction of emerged activities. These symptoms clearly discriminate the appearance of the extreme events under study from the corresponding background noise.

Changes in Concurrent Risk of Warm and Dry Years under Impact of Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sarhadi, A.; Wiper, M.; Touma, D. E.; Ausín, M. C.; Diffenbaugh, N. S.

2017-12-01

Anthropogenic global warming has changed the nature and the risk of extreme climate phenomena. The changing concurrence of multiple climatic extremes (warm and dry years) may result in intensification of undesirable consequences for water resources, human and ecosystem health, and environmental equity. The present study assesses how global warming influences the probability that warm and dry years co-occur in a global scale. In the first step of the study a designed multivariate Mann-Kendall trend analysis is used to detect the areas in which the concurrence of warm and dry years has increased in the historical climate records and also climate models in the global scale. The next step investigates the concurrent risk of the extremes under dynamic nonstationary conditions. A fully generalized multivariate risk framework is designed to evolve through time under dynamic nonstationary conditions. In this methodology, Bayesian, dynamic copulas are developed to model the time-varying dependence structure between the two different climate extremes (warm and dry years). The results reveal an increasing trend in the concurrence risk of warm and dry years, which are in agreement with the multivariate trend analysis from historical and climate models. In addition to providing a novel quantification of the changing probability of compound extreme events, the results of this study can help decision makers develop short- and long-term strategies to prepare for climate stresses now and in the future.

Examining Extreme Events Using Dynamically Downscaled 12-km WRF Simulations

EPA Science Inventory

Continued improvements in the speed and availability of computational resources have allowed dynamical downscaling of global climate model (GCM) projections to be conducted at increasingly finer grid scales and over extended time periods. The implementation of dynamical downscal...

Hip and upper extremity kinematics in youth baseball pitchers.

PubMed

Holt, Taylor; Oliver, Gretchen D

2016-01-01

The purpose of this study was to examine the relationship between dynamic hip rotational range of motion and upper extremity kinematics during baseball pitching. Thirty-one youth baseball pitchers (10.87 ± 0.92 years; 150.03 ± 5.48 cm; 44.83 ± 8.04 kg) participated. A strong correlation was found between stance hip rotation and scapular upward rotation at maximum shoulder external rotation (r = 0.531, P = 0.002) and at ball release (r = 0.536, P = 0.002). No statistically significant correlations were found between dynamic hip rotational range of motion and passive hip range of motion. Hip range of motion deficits can constrain pelvis rotation and limit energy generation in the lower extremities. Shoulder pathomechanics can then develop as greater responsibility is placed on the shoulder to generate the energy lost from the proximal segments, increasing risk of upper extremity injury. Additionally, it appears that passive seated measurements of hip range of motion may not accurately reflect the dynamic range of motion of the hips through the progression of the pitch cycle.

Extremely pulsatile flow around a surface-mounted hemisphere: synergistic experiments and simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carr, Ian A.; Beratlis, Nikolaos; Balaras, Elias; Plesniak, Michael W.

2017-11-01

Extremely pulsatile flow (where the amplitude of oscillation pulsation is of the same order as the mean flow) over a three-dimensional, surface-mounted bluff body gives rise a wealth of fluid dynamics phenomena. In this study, we extend our previous experimental work on extremely pulsatile flow around a surface-mounted hemisphere by performing a complementary direct numerical simulation. Results from the experiment and simulation will be presented and compared. After establishing the agreement between experiment and simulation, we will examine the morphology and dynamics of the vortex structures in the wake of the hemisphere, and the effects of extreme pulsatility. The dynamics of the arch-type recirculation vortex is of primary interest, in particular its upstream propagation due to self-induced velocity in the direction opposite to the freestream during deceleration. In addition to the velocity field, the surface pressure field throughout the pulsatile cycle will be presented. These synergistic experiments and simulations provide a detailed view into the complex flow fields associated with pulsatile flow over a surface-mounted hemisphere. This material is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation under Grant Number CBET-1236351 and the GW Center for Biomimetics and Bioinspired Engineering.

NASA,FAA,ONERA Swept-Wing Icing and Aerodynamics: Summary of Research and Current Status

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Broeren, Andy

2015-01-01

NASA, FAA, ONERA, and other partner organizations have embarked on a significant, collaborative research effort to address the technical challenges associated with icing on large scale, three-dimensional swept wings. These are extremely complex phenomena important to the design, certification and safe operation of small and large transport aircraft. There is increasing demand to balance trade-offs in aircraft efficiency, cost and noise that tend to compete directly with allowable performance degradations over an increasing range of icing conditions. Computational fluid dynamics codes have reached a level of maturity that they are being proposed by manufacturers for use in certification of aircraft for flight in icing. However, sufficient high-quality data to evaluate their performance on iced swept wings are not currently available in the public domain and significant knowledge gaps remain.

An exploitation-competition system with negative effect of prey on its predator.

PubMed

Wang, Yuanshi

2015-05-01

This paper considers an exploitation-competition system in which exploitation is the dominant interaction when the prey is at low density, while competition is dominant when the prey is at high density due to its negative effect on the predator. The two-species system is characterized by differential equations, which are the combination of Lotka-Volterra competitive and predator-prey models. Global dynamics of the model demonstrate some basic properties of exploitation-competition systems: (i) When the growth rate of prey is extremely small, the prey cannot promote the growth of predator. (ii) When the growth rate is small, an obligate predator can survive by preying on the prey, while a facultative predator can approach a high density by the predation. (iii) When the growth rate is intermediate, the predator can approach the maximal density by an intermediate predation. (iv) When the growth rate is large, the predator can persist only if it has a large density and its predation on the prey is big. (v) Intermediate predation is beneficial to the predator under certain parameter range, while over- or under-predation is not good. Extremely big/small predation would lead to extinction of species. Numerical simulations confirm and extend our results. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Climate, icing, and wild arctic reindeer: past relationships and future prospects.

PubMed

Hansen, Brage Bremset; Aanes, Ronny; Herfindal, Ivar; Kohler, Jack; Saether, Bernt-Erik

2011-10-01

Across the Arctic, heavy rain-on-snow (ROS) is an "extreme" climatic event that is expected to become increasingly frequent with global warming. This has potentially large ecosystem implications through changes in snowpack properties and ground-icing, which can block the access to herbivores' winter food and thereby suppress their population growth rates. However, the supporting empirical evidence for this is still limited. We monitored late winter snowpack properties to examine the causes and consequences of ground-icing in a Svalbard reindeer (Rangifer tarandus platyrhynchus) metapopulation. In this high-arctic area, heavy ROS occurred annually, and ground-ice covered from 25% to 96% of low-altitude habitat in the sampling period (2000-2010). The extent of ground-icing increased with the annual number of days with heavy ROS (> or = 10 mm) and had a strong negative effect on reindeer population growth rates. Our results have important implications as a downscaled climate projection (2021-2050) suggests a substantial future increase in ROS and icing. The present study is the first to demonstrate empirically that warmer and wetter winter climate influences large herbivore population dynamics by generating ice-locked pastures. This may serve as an early warning of the importance of changes in winter climate and extreme weather events in arctic ecosystems.

Ensemble Kalman filters for dynamical systems with unresolved turbulence

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Grooms, Ian, E-mail: grooms@cims.nyu.edu; Lee, Yoonsang; Majda, Andrew J.

Ensemble Kalman filters are developed for turbulent dynamical systems where the forecast model does not resolve all the active scales of motion. Coarse-resolution models are intended to predict the large-scale part of the true dynamics, but observations invariably include contributions from both the resolved large scales and the unresolved small scales. The error due to the contribution of unresolved scales to the observations, called ‘representation’ or ‘representativeness’ error, is often included as part of the observation error, in addition to the raw measurement error, when estimating the large-scale part of the system. It is here shown how stochastic superparameterization (amore » multiscale method for subgridscale parameterization) can be used to provide estimates of the statistics of the unresolved scales. In addition, a new framework is developed wherein small-scale statistics can be used to estimate both the resolved and unresolved components of the solution. The one-dimensional test problem from dispersive wave turbulence used here is computationally tractable yet is particularly difficult for filtering because of the non-Gaussian extreme event statistics and substantial small scale turbulence: a shallow energy spectrum proportional to k{sup −5/6} (where k is the wavenumber) results in two-thirds of the climatological variance being carried by the unresolved small scales. Because the unresolved scales contain so much energy, filters that ignore the representation error fail utterly to provide meaningful estimates of the system state. Inclusion of a time-independent climatological estimate of the representation error in a standard framework leads to inaccurate estimates of the large-scale part of the signal; accurate estimates of the large scales are only achieved by using stochastic superparameterization to provide evolving, large-scale dependent predictions of the small-scale statistics. Again, because the unresolved scales contain so much energy, even an accurate estimate of the large-scale part of the system does not provide an accurate estimate of the true state. By providing simultaneous estimates of both the large- and small-scale parts of the solution, the new framework is able to provide accurate estimates of the true system state.« less

Ultrafast dynamics of self-assembled monolayers under shock compression: effects of molecular and substrate structure.

PubMed

Lagutchev, Alexei S; Patterson, James E; Huang, Wentao; Dlott, Dana D

2005-03-24

Laser-driven approximately 1 GPa shock waves are used to dynamically compress self-assembled monolayers (SAMs) consisting of octadecanethiol (ODT) on Au and Ag, and pentanedecanethiol (PDT) and benzyl mercaptan (BMT) on Au. The SAM response to <4 ps shock loading and approximately 25 ps shock unloading is monitored by vibrational sum-frequency generation spectroscopy (SFG), which is sensitive to the instantaneous tilt angle of the SAM terminal group relative to the surface normal. Arrival of the shock front causes SFG signal loss in all SAMs with a material time constant <3.5 ps. Thermal desorption and shock recovery experiments show that SAMs remain adsorbed on the substrate, so signal loss is attributed to shock tilting of the methyl or phenyl groups to angles near 90 degrees. When the shock unloads, PDT/Au returns elastically to its native structure whereas ODT/Au does not. ODT evidences a complicated viscoelastic response that arises from at least two conformers, one that remains kinetically trapped in a large-tilt-angle conformation for times >250 ps and one that relaxes in approximately 30 ps to a nearly upright conformation. Although the shock responses of PDT/Au, ODT/Ag, and BMT/Au are primarily elastic, a small portion of the molecules, 10-20%, evidence viscoelastic response, either becoming kinetically trapped in large-tilt states or by relaxing in approximately 30 ps back to the native structure. The implications of the observed large-amplitude monolayer dynamics for lubrication under extreme conditions of high strain rates are discussed briefly.

Hair-based sensors for micro-autonomous systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sadeghi, Mahdi M.; Peterson, Rebecca L.; Najafi, Khalil

2012-06-01

We seek to harness microelectromechanical systems (MEMS) technologies to build biomimetic devices for low-power, high-performance, robust sensors and actuators on micro-autonomous robot platforms. Hair is used abundantly in nature for a variety of functions including balance and inertial sensing, flow sensing and aerodynamic (air foil) control, tactile and touch sensing, insulation and temperature control, particle filtering, and gas/chemical sensing. Biological hairs, which are typically characterized by large surface/volume ratios and mechanical amplification of movement, can be distributed in large numbers over large areas providing unprecedented sensitivity, redundancy, and stability (robustness). Local neural transduction allows for space- and power-efficient signal processing. Moreover by varying the hair structure and transduction mechanism, the basic hair form can be used for a wide diversity of functions. In this paper, by exploiting a novel wafer-level, bubble-free liquid encapsulation technology, we make arrays of micro-hydraulic cells capable of electrostatic actuation and hydraulic amplification, which enables high force/high deflection actuation and extremely sensitive detection (sensing) at low power. By attachment of cilia (hair) to the micro-hydraulic cell, air flow sensors with excellent sensitivity (< few cm/s) and dynamic range (> 10 m/s) have been built. A second-generation design has significantly reduced the sensor response time while maintaining sensitivity of about 2 cm/s and dynamic range of more than 15 m/s. These sensors can be used for dynamic flight control of flying robots or for situational awareness in surveillance applications. The core biomimetic technologies developed are applicable to a broad range of sensors and actuators.

Ultrafast carrier dynamics and third-order nonlinear optical properties of AgInS2/ZnS nanocrystals.

PubMed

Yu, Kuai; Yang, Yang; Wang, Junzhong; Tang, Xiaosheng; Xu, Qing-Hua; Wang, Guo Ping

2018-06-22

Broad photoluminescence (PL) emission, a large Stokes shift and extremely long-lived radiative lifetimes are the characteristics of ternary I-III-VI semiconductor nanocrystals (NCs), such as CuInS 2 and AgInS 2 . However, the lack of understanding regarding the intriguing PL mechanisms and photo-carrier dynamics limits their further applications. Here, AgInS 2 and AgInS 2 /ZnS NCs were chemically synthesized and their carrier dynamics were studied by time-resolved PL spectroscopy. The results demonstrated that the surface defect state, which contributed dominantly to the non-radiative decay processes, was effectively passivated through ZnS alloying. Femtosecond transient absorption spectroscopy was also used to investigate the carrier dynamics, revealing the electron storage at the surface state and donor state. Furthermore, the two photon absorption properties of AgInS 2 and AgInS 2 /ZnS NCs were measured using an open-aperture Z-scan technique. The improved third-order nonlinear susceptibility [Formula: see text] of AgInS 2 through ZnS alloying demonstrates potential application in two photon PL biological imaging.

Scalar model for frictional precursors dynamics

PubMed Central

Taloni, Alessandro; Benassi, Andrea; Sandfeld, Stefan; Zapperi, Stefano

2015-01-01

Recent experiments indicate that frictional sliding occurs by nucleation of detachment fronts at the contact interface that may appear well before the onset of global sliding. This intriguing precursory activity is not accounted for by traditional friction theories but is extremely important for friction dominated geophysical phenomena as earthquakes, landslides or avalanches. Here we simulate the onset of slip of a three dimensional elastic body resting on a surface and show that experimentally observed frictional precursors depend in a complex non-universal way on the sample geometry and loading conditions. Our model satisfies Archard's law and Amontons' first and second laws, reproducing with remarkable precision the real contact area dynamics, the precursors' envelope dynamics prior to sliding, and the normal and shear internal stress distributions close to the interfacial surface. Moreover, it allows to assess which features can be attributed to the elastic equilibrium, and which are attributed to the out-of-equilibrium dynamics, suggesting that precursory activity is an intrinsically quasi-static physical process. A direct calculation of the evolution of the Coulomb stress before and during precursors nucleation shows large variations across the sample, explaining why earthquake forecasting methods based only on accumulated slip and Coulomb stress monitoring are often ineffective. PMID:25640079

Scalar model for frictional precursors dynamics.

PubMed

Taloni, Alessandro; Benassi, Andrea; Sandfeld, Stefan; Zapperi, Stefano

2015-02-02

Recent experiments indicate that frictional sliding occurs by nucleation of detachment fronts at the contact interface that may appear well before the onset of global sliding. This intriguing precursory activity is not accounted for by traditional friction theories but is extremely important for friction dominated geophysical phenomena as earthquakes, landslides or avalanches. Here we simulate the onset of slip of a three dimensional elastic body resting on a surface and show that experimentally observed frictional precursors depend in a complex non-universal way on the sample geometry and loading conditions. Our model satisfies Archard's law and Amontons' first and second laws, reproducing with remarkable precision the real contact area dynamics, the precursors' envelope dynamics prior to sliding, and the normal and shear internal stress distributions close to the interfacial surface. Moreover, it allows to assess which features can be attributed to the elastic equilibrium, and which are attributed to the out-of-equilibrium dynamics, suggesting that precursory activity is an intrinsically quasi-static physical process. A direct calculation of the evolution of the Coulomb stress before and during precursors nucleation shows large variations across the sample, explaining why earthquake forecasting methods based only on accumulated slip and Coulomb stress monitoring are often ineffective.

STS-41G earth observations

NASA Image and Video Library

1984-10-12

41G-34-098 (5-13 Oct 1984) --- Strait of Gibraltar and western Mediterranean photographed sunglint. Sun reflection on water delineates surface texture, which corresponds to the ocean's dynamics. The large group of waves connecting Gibraltar with the Moroccan coast is the response of the ocean to a tidal pulse moving into the Mediterranean. The low level wing shear line extending out from the Moroccan coastline into the Mediterranean for approximately 40 miles is the southern extremity of the wind funneling through the strait. This is the first high resolution photograph ever taken of this phenomenon permitting detailed delineation of individual waves which comprise the wave packet.

Dynamic behavior of particles in spacecraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Perrine, B. S.

1981-01-01

The behavior of particles relative to a spacecraft frame of reference was examined. Significant spatial excursions of particles in space can occur relative to the spacecraft frame of reference as a result of drag deceleration of the vehicle. These vehicle excursions tend to be large as time increases. Thus, if the particle is required to remain in a specified volume, constraints may be required. Thus, for example, in levitation experiments it may be extremely difficult to turn off the forces of constraint which keep the particles in a specified region. This means experiments which are sensitive to disturbances may be very difficult to perform if perturbation forces are required to be absent.

Photoelastic colloidal gel for a high-sensitivity strain sensor.

PubMed

Pan, Hui; Chen, Zhixin; Zhu, Shenmin; Jiang, Chun; Zhang, Di

2018-04-27

Nanoparticles, having the ability to self-assemble into an ordered structure in their suspensions, analogous to liquid crystals, have attracted extensive attention. Herein, we report a new type of colloidal gel with an ordered crystal structure assembled from 1D and 2D nanoparticles. The material has high elasticity and, more interestingly, it shows significant photoelasticity. Its refractive index can be tuned under external stress and exhibits an ultra-wide dynamic range (Δn) of the order of 10 -2 . Due to the large Δn, the material shows an extremely high strain sensibility of 720 nm/ε, an order of magnitude higher than the reported ones.

KSC-08pd0767

NASA Image and Video Library

2008-03-20

KENNEDY SPACE CENTER, FLA. - In the Astrotech payload processing facility, General Dynamics technicians use a socket wrench equipped with a torque meter to tighten the bolts holding one of twin solar arrays to NASA's Gamma-Ray Large Area Space Telescope, or GLAST. The telescope will launch aboard a Delta II rocket May 16 from Launch Pad 17-B on Cape Canaveral Air Force Station. A powerful space observatory, the GLAST will explore the most extreme environments in the universe, and answer questions about supermassive black hole systems, pulsars and the origin of cosmic rays. It also will study the mystery of powerful explosions known as gamma-ray bursts. Photo credit: NASA/Chris Rhodes

Chemistry in interstellar space. [environment characteristics influencing reaction dynamics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Donn, B.

1973-01-01

The particular characteristics of chemistry in interstellar space are determined by the unique environmental conditions involved. Interstellar matter is present at extremely low densities. Large deviations from thermodynamic equilibrium are, therefore, to be expected. A relatively intense ultraviolet radiation is present in many regions. The temperatures are in the range from 5 to 200 K. Data concerning the inhibiting effect of small activation energies in interstellar clouds are presented in a table. A summary of measured activation energies or barrier heights for exothermic exchange reactions is also provided. Problems of molecule formation are discussed, taking into account gas phase reactions and surface catalyzed processes.

Photoelastic colloidal gel for a high-sensitivity strain sensor

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pan, Hui; Chen, Zhixin; Zhu, Shenmin; Jiang, Chun; Zhang, Di

2018-04-01

Nanoparticles, having the ability to self-assemble into an ordered structure in their suspensions, analogous to liquid crystals, have attracted extensive attention. Herein, we report a new type of colloidal gel with an ordered crystal structure assembled from 1D and 2D nanoparticles. The material has high elasticity and, more interestingly, it shows significant photoelasticity. Its refractive index can be tuned under external stress and exhibits an ultra-wide dynamic range (Δn) of the order of 10-2. Due to the large Δn, the material shows an extremely high strain sensibility of 720 nm/ɛ, an order of magnitude higher than the reported ones.

KSC-08pd0653

NASA Image and Video Library

2008-03-05

KENNEDY SPACE CENTER, FLA. -- In the Astrotech payload processing facility, General Dynamics technicians secure NASA's Gamma-Ray Large Area Space Telescope, or GLAST, onto a work stand. There GLAST will undergo a complete checkout of the scientific instruments aboard. The telescope will launch aboard a Delta II rocket May 16 from Launch Pad 17-B on Cape Canaveral Air Force Station. A powerful space observatory, the GLAST will explore the most extreme environments in the universe, and answer questions about supermassive black hole systems, pulsars and the origin of cosmic rays. It also will study the mystery of powerful explosions known as gamma-ray bursts. Photo credit: NASA/Kim Shiflett

KSC-08pd0768

NASA Image and Video Library

2008-03-20

KENNEDY SPACE CENTER, FLA. - In the Astrotech payload processing facility, one of twin solar arrays awaits processing as General Dynamics technicians install the other of the pair on NASA's Gamma-Ray Large Area Space Telescope, or GLAST. The telescope will launch aboard a Delta II rocket May 16 from Launch Pad 17-B on Cape Canaveral Air Force Station. A powerful space observatory, the GLAST will explore the most extreme environments in the universe, and answer questions about supermassive black hole systems, pulsars and the origin of cosmic rays. It also will study the mystery of powerful explosions known as gamma-ray bursts. Photo credit: NASA/Chris Rhodes

Statistical Modeling of Extreme Values and Evidence of Presence of Dragon King (DK) in Solar Wind

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gomes, T.; Ramos, F.; Rempel, E. L.; Silva, S.; C-L Chian, A.

2017-12-01

The solar wind constitutes a nonlinear dynamical system, presenting intermittent turbulence, multifractality and chaotic dynamics. One characteristic shared by many such complex systems is the presence of extreme events, that play an important role in several Geophysical phenomena and their statistical characterization is a problem of great practical relevance. This work investigates the presence of extreme events in time series of the modulus of the interplanetary magnetic field measured by Cluster spacecraft on February 2, 2002. One of the main results is that the solar wind near the Earth's bow shock can be modeled by the Generalized Pareto (GP) and Generalized Extreme Values (GEV) distributions. Both models present a statistically significant positive shape parameter which implyies a heavy tail in the probability distribution functions and an unbounded growth in return values as return periods become too long. There is evidence that current sheets are the main responsible for positive values of the shape parameter. It is also shown that magnetic reconnection at the interface between two interplanetary magnetic flux ropes in the solar wind can be considered as Dragon Kings (DK), a class of extreme events whose formation mechanisms are fundamentally different from others. As long as magnetic reconnection can be classified as a Dragon King, there is the possibility of its identification and even its prediction. Dragon kings had previously been identified in time series of financial crashes, nuclear power generation accidents, stock market and so on. It is believed that they are associated with the occurrence of extreme events in dynamical systems at phase transition, bifurcation, crises or tipping points.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Albertazzi, Bruno; Ozaki, Norimasa; Zhakhovsky, Vasily

The understanding of fracture phenomena of a material at extremely high strain rates is a key issue for a wide variety of scientific research ranging from applied science and technological developments to fundamental science such as laser-matter interaction and geology. Despite its interest, its study relies on a fine multiscale description, in between the atomic scale and macroscopic processes, so far only achievable by large-scale atomic simulations. Direct ultrafast real-time monitoring of dynamic fracture (spallation) at the atomic lattice scale with picosecond time resolution was beyond the reach of experimental techniques. We show that the coupling between a high-power opticalmore » laser pump pulse and a femtosecond x-ray probe pulse generated by an x-ray free electron laser allows detection of the lattice dynamics in a tantalum foil at an ultrahigh strain rate of Embedded Image ~2 × 10 8 to 3.5 × 10 8 s -1. A maximal density drop of 8 to 10%, associated with the onset of spallation at a spall strength of ~17 GPa, was directly measured using x-ray diffraction. The experimental results of density evolution agree well with large-scale atomistic simulations of shock wave propagation and fracture of the sample. Our experimental technique opens a new pathway to the investigation of ultrahigh strain-rate phenomena in materials at the atomic scale, including high-speed crack dynamics and stress-induced solid-solid phase transitions.« less

Transport and dielectric properties of water and the influence of coarse-graining: Comparing BMW, SPC/E, and TIP3P models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Braun, Daniel; Boresch, Stefan; Steinhauser, Othmar

Long-term molecular dynamics simulations are used to compare the single particle dipole reorientation time, the diffusion constant, the viscosity, and the frequency-dependent dielectric constant of the coarse-grained big multipole water (BMW) model to two common atomistic three-point water models, SPC/E and TIP3P. In particular, the agreement between the calculated viscosity of BMW and the experimental viscosity of water is satisfactory. We also discuss contradictory values for the static dielectric properties reported in the literature. Employing molecular hydrodynamics, we show that the viscosity can be computed from single particle dynamics, circumventing the slow convergence of the standard approaches. Furthermore, our datamore » indicate that the Kivelson relation connecting single particle and collective reorientation time holds true for all systems investigated. Since simulations with coarse-grained force fields often employ extremely large time steps, we also investigate the influence of time step on dynamical properties. We observe a systematic acceleration of system dynamics when increasing the time step. Carefully monitoring energy/temperature conservation is found to be a sufficient criterion for the reliable calculation of dynamical properties. By contrast, recommended criteria based on the ratio of fluctuations of total vs. kinetic energy are not sensitive enough.« less

The impact of inter-annual rainfall variability on African savannas changes with mean rainfall.

PubMed

Synodinos, Alexis D; Tietjen, Britta; Lohmann, Dirk; Jeltsch, Florian

2018-01-21

Savannas are mixed tree-grass ecosystems whose dynamics are predominantly regulated by resource competition and the temporal variability in climatic and environmental factors such as rainfall and fire. Hence, increasing inter-annual rainfall variability due to climate change could have a significant impact on savannas. To investigate this, we used an ecohydrological model of stochastic differential equations and simulated African savanna dynamics along a gradient of mean annual rainfall (520-780 mm/year) for a range of inter-annual rainfall variabilities. Our simulations produced alternative states of grassland and savanna across the mean rainfall gradient. Increasing inter-annual variability had a negative effect on the savanna state under dry conditions (520 mm/year), and a positive effect under moister conditions (580-780 mm/year). The former resulted from the net negative effect of dry and wet extremes on trees. In semi-arid conditions (520 mm/year), dry extremes caused a loss of tree cover, which could not be recovered during wet extremes because of strong resource competition and the increased frequency of fires. At high mean rainfall (780 mm/year), increased variability enhanced savanna resilience. Here, resources were no longer limiting and the slow tree dynamics buffered against variability by maintaining a stable population during 'dry' extremes, providing the basis for growth during wet extremes. Simultaneously, high rainfall years had a weak marginal benefit on grass cover due to density-regulation and grazing. Our results suggest that the effects of the slow tree and fast grass dynamics on tree-grass interactions will become a major determinant of the savanna vegetation composition with increasing rainfall variability. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A dynamic traction splint for the management of extrinsic tendon tightness.

PubMed

Dovelle, S; Heeter, P K; Phillips, P D

1987-02-01

The dynamic traction splint designed by therapists at Walter Reed Army Medical Center is used for the management of extrinsic extensor tendon tightness commonly seen in brachial plexus injuries and traumatic soft tissue injuries of the upper extremity. The two components of the splint allow for simultaneous maximum flexion of the MCP and IP joints. This simple and economical splint provides an additional modality to any occupational therapy service involved in the management of upper extremity disorders.

A NOISE ADAPTIVE FUZZY EQUALIZATION METHOD FOR PROCESSING SOLAR EXTREME ULTRAVIOLET IMAGES

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Druckmueller, M., E-mail: druckmuller@fme.vutbr.cz

A new image enhancement tool ideally suited for the visualization of fine structures in extreme ultraviolet images of the corona is presented in this paper. The Noise Adaptive Fuzzy Equalization method is particularly suited for the exceptionally high dynamic range images from the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly instrument on the Solar Dynamics Observatory. This method produces artifact-free images and gives significantly better results than methods based on convolution or Fourier transform which are often used for that purpose.

Inertial Confinement Fusion as an Extreme Example of Dynamic Compression

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moses, E.

2013-06-01

Initiating and controlling thermonuclear burn at the national ignition facility (NIF) will require the manipulation of matter to extreme energy densities. We will discuss recent advances in both controlling the dynamic compression of ignition targets and our understanding of the physical states and processes leading to ignition. This work was performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in part under Contract W-7405-Eng-48 and in part under Contract DE-AC52-07NA27344.

A comparison of two global datasets of extreme sea levels and resulting flood exposure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muis, Sanne; Verlaan, Martin; Nicholls, Robert J.; Brown, Sally; Hinkel, Jochen; Lincke, Daniel; Vafeidis, Athanasios T.; Scussolini, Paolo; Winsemius, Hessel C.; Ward, Philip J.

2017-04-01

Estimating the current risk of coastal flooding requires adequate information on extreme sea levels. For over a decade, the only global data available was the DINAS-COAST Extreme Sea Levels (DCESL) dataset, which applies a static approximation to estimate extreme sea levels. Recently, a dynamically derived dataset was developed: the Global Tide and Surge Reanalysis (GTSR) dataset. Here, we compare the two datasets. The differences between DCESL and GTSR are generally larger than the confidence intervals of GTSR. Compared to observed extremes, DCESL generally overestimates extremes with a mean bias of 0.6 m. With a mean bias of -0.2 m GTSR generally underestimates extremes, particularly in the tropics. The Dynamic Interactive Vulnerability Assessment model is applied to calculate the present-day flood exposure in terms of the land area and the population below the 1 in 100-year sea levels. Global exposed population is 28% lower when based on GTSR instead of DCESL. Considering the limited data available at the time, DCESL provides a good estimate of the spatial variation in extremes around the world. However, GTSR allows for an improved assessment of the impacts of coastal floods, including confidence bounds. We further improve the assessment of coastal impacts by correcting for the conflicting vertical datum of sea-level extremes and land elevation, which has not been accounted for in previous global assessments. Converting the extreme sea levels to the same vertical reference used for the elevation data is shown to be a critical step resulting in 39-59% higher estimate of population exposure.

Large-scale Meteorological Patterns Associated with Extreme Precipitation Events over Portland, OR

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aragon, C.; Loikith, P. C.; Lintner, B. R.; Pike, M.

2017-12-01

Extreme precipitation events can have profound impacts on human life and infrastructure, with broad implications across a range of stakeholders. Changes to extreme precipitation events are a projected outcome of climate change that warrants further study, especially at regional- to local-scales. While global climate models are generally capable of simulating mean climate at global-to-regional scales with reasonable skill, resiliency and adaptation decisions are made at local-scales where most state-of-the-art climate models are limited by coarse resolution. Characterization of large-scale meteorological patterns associated with extreme precipitation events at local-scales can provide climatic information without this scale limitation, thus facilitating stakeholder decision-making. This research will use synoptic climatology as a tool by which to characterize the key large-scale meteorological patterns associated with extreme precipitation events in the Portland, Oregon metro region. Composite analysis of meteorological patterns associated with extreme precipitation days, and associated watershed-specific flooding, is employed to enhance understanding of the climatic drivers behind such events. The self-organizing maps approach is then used to characterize the within-composite variability of the large-scale meteorological patterns associated with extreme precipitation events, allowing us to better understand the different types of meteorological conditions that lead to high-impact precipitation events and associated hydrologic impacts. A more comprehensive understanding of the meteorological drivers of extremes will aid in evaluation of the ability of climate models to capture key patterns associated with extreme precipitation over Portland and to better interpret projections of future climate at impact-relevant scales.

Evaluation of uncertainty in capturing the spatial variability and magnitudes of extreme hydrological events for the uMngeni catchment, South Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kusangaya, Samuel; Warburton Toucher, Michele L.; van Garderen, Emma Archer

2018-02-01

Downscaled General Circulation Models (GCMs) output are used to forecast climate change and provide information used as input for hydrological modelling. Given that our understanding of climate change points towards an increasing frequency, timing and intensity of extreme hydrological events, there is therefore the need to assess the ability of downscaled GCMs to capture these extreme hydrological events. Extreme hydrological events play a significant role in regulating the structure and function of rivers and associated ecosystems. In this study, the Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration (IHA) method was adapted to assess the ability of simulated streamflow (using downscaled GCMs (dGCMs)) in capturing extreme river dynamics (high and low flows), as compared to streamflow simulated using historical climate data from 1960 to 2000. The ACRU hydrological model was used for simulating streamflow for the 13 water management units of the uMngeni Catchment, South Africa. Statistically downscaled climate models obtained from the Climate System Analysis Group at the University of Cape Town were used as input for the ACRU Model. Results indicated that, high flows and extreme high flows (one in ten year high flows/large flood events) were poorly represented both in terms of timing, frequency and magnitude. Simulated streamflow using dGCMs data also captures more low flows and extreme low flows (one in ten year lowest flows) than that captured in streamflow simulated using historical climate data. The overall conclusion was that although dGCMs output can reasonably be used to simulate overall streamflow, it performs poorly when simulating extreme high and low flows. Streamflow simulation from dGCMs must thus be used with caution in hydrological applications, particularly for design hydrology, as extreme high and low flows are still poorly represented. This, arguably calls for the further improvement of downscaling techniques in order to generate climate data more relevant and useful for hydrological applications such as in design hydrology. Nevertheless, the availability of downscaled climatic output provide the potential of exploring climate model uncertainties in different hydro climatic regions at local scales where forcing data is often less accessible but more accurate at finer spatial scales and with adequate spatial detail.

Climate Impacts on Extreme Energy Consumption of Different Types of Buildings

PubMed Central

Li, Mingcai; Shi, Jun; Guo, Jun; Cao, Jingfu; Niu, Jide; Xiong, Mingming

2015-01-01

Exploring changes of building energy consumption and its relationships with climate can provide basis for energy-saving and carbon emission reduction. Heating and cooling energy consumption of different types of buildings during 1981-2010 in Tianjin city, was simulated by using TRNSYS software. Daily or hourly extreme energy consumption was determined by percentile methods, and the climate impact on extreme energy consumption was analyzed. The results showed that days of extreme heating consumption showed apparent decrease during the recent 30 years for residential and large venue buildings, whereas days of extreme cooling consumption increased in large venue building. No significant variations were found for the days of extreme energy consumption for commercial building, although a decreasing trend in extreme heating energy consumption. Daily extreme energy consumption for large venue building had no relationship with climate parameters, whereas extreme energy consumption for commercial and residential buildings was related to various climate parameters. Further multiple regression analysis suggested heating energy consumption for commercial building was affected by maximum temperature, dry bulb temperature, solar radiation and minimum temperature, which together can explain 71.5 % of the variation of the daily extreme heating energy consumption. The daily extreme cooling energy consumption for commercial building was only related to the wet bulb temperature (R2= 0.382). The daily extreme heating energy consumption for residential building was affected by 4 climate parameters, but the dry bulb temperature had the main impact. The impacts of climate on hourly extreme heating energy consumption has a 1-3 hour delay in all three types of buildings, but no delay was found in the impacts of climate on hourly extreme cooling energy consumption for the selected buildings. PMID:25923205

Climate impacts on extreme energy consumption of different types of buildings.

PubMed

Li, Mingcai; Shi, Jun; Guo, Jun; Cao, Jingfu; Niu, Jide; Xiong, Mingming

2015-01-01

Exploring changes of building energy consumption and its relationships with climate can provide basis for energy-saving and carbon emission reduction. Heating and cooling energy consumption of different types of buildings during 1981-2010 in Tianjin city, was simulated by using TRNSYS software. Daily or hourly extreme energy consumption was determined by percentile methods, and the climate impact on extreme energy consumption was analyzed. The results showed that days of extreme heating consumption showed apparent decrease during the recent 30 years for residential and large venue buildings, whereas days of extreme cooling consumption increased in large venue building. No significant variations were found for the days of extreme energy consumption for commercial building, although a decreasing trend in extreme heating energy consumption. Daily extreme energy consumption for large venue building had no relationship with climate parameters, whereas extreme energy consumption for commercial and residential buildings was related to various climate parameters. Further multiple regression analysis suggested heating energy consumption for commercial building was affected by maximum temperature, dry bulb temperature, solar radiation and minimum temperature, which together can explain 71.5 % of the variation of the daily extreme heating energy consumption. The daily extreme cooling energy consumption for commercial building was only related to the wet bulb temperature (R2= 0.382). The daily extreme heating energy consumption for residential building was affected by 4 climate parameters, but the dry bulb temperature had the main impact. The impacts of climate on hourly extreme heating energy consumption has a 1-3 hour delay in all three types of buildings, but no delay was found in the impacts of climate on hourly extreme cooling energy consumption for the selected buildings.

Know your limits? Climate extremes impact the range of Scots pine in unexpected places

PubMed Central

Julio Camarero, J.; Gazol, Antonio; Sancho-Benages, Santiago; Sangüesa-Barreda, Gabriel

2015-01-01

Background and Aims Although extreme climatic events such as drought are known to modify forest dynamics by triggering tree dieback, the impact of extreme cold events, especially at the low-latitude margin (‘rear edge’) of species distributional ranges, has received little attention. The aim of this study was to examine the impact of one such extreme cold event on a population of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) along the species’ European southern rear-edge range limit and to determine how such events can be incorporated into species distribution models (SDMs). Methods A combination of dendrochronology and field observation was used to quantify how an extreme cold event in 2001 in eastern Spain affected growth, needle loss and mortality of Scots pine. Long-term European climatic data sets were used to contextualize the severity of the 2001 event, and an SDM for Scots pine in Europe was used to predict climatic range limits. Key Results The 2001 winter reached record minimum temperatures (equivalent to the maximum European-wide diurnal ranges) and, for trees already stressed by a preceding dry summer and autumn, this caused dieback and large-scale mortality. Needle loss and mortality were particularly evident in south-facing sites, where post-event recovery was greatly reduced. The SDM predicted European Scots pine distribution mainly on the basis of responses to maximum and minimum monthly temperatures, but in comparison with this the observed effects of the 2001 cold event at the southerly edge of the range limit were unforeseen. Conclusions The results suggest that in order to better forecast how anthropogenic climate change might affect future forest distributions, distribution modelling techniques such as SDMs must incorporate climatic extremes. For Scots pine, this study shows that the effects of cold extremes should be included across the entire distribution margin, including the southern ‘rear edge’, in order to avoid biased predictions based solely on warmer climatic scenarios. PMID:26292992

Chain Ends and the Ultimate Tensile Strength of Polyethylene Fibers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Connor, Thomas C.; Robbins, Mark O.

Determining the tensile yield mechanisms of oriented polymer fibers remains a challenging problem in polymer mechanics. By maximizing the alignment and crystallinity of polyethylene (PE) fibers, tensile strengths σ ~ 6 - 7 GPa have been achieved. While impressive, first-principal calculations predict carbon backbone bonds would allow strengths four times higher (σ ~ 20 GPa) before breaking. The reduction in strength is caused by crystal defects like chain ends, which allow fibers to yield by chain slip in addition to bond breaking. We use large scale molecular dynamics (MD) simulations to determine the tensile yield mechanism of orthorhombic PE crystals with finite chains spanning 102 -104 carbons in length. The yield stress σy saturates for long chains at ~ 6 . 3 GPa, agreeing well with experiments. Chains do not break but always yield by slip, after nucleation of 1D dislocations at chain ends. Dislocations are accurately described by a Frenkel-Kontorova model, parametrized by the mechanical properties of an ideal crystal. We compute a dislocation core size ξ = 25 . 24 Å and determine the high and low strain rate limits of σy. Our results suggest characterizing such 1D dislocations is an efficient method for predicting fiber strength. This research was performed within the Center for Materials in Extreme Dynamic Environments (CMEDE) under the Hopkins Extreme Materials Institute at Johns Hopkins University. Financial support was provided by Grant W911NF-12-2-0022.

2015-16 ENSO Drove Tropical Soil Moisture Dynamics and Methane Fluxes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aronson, E. L.; Dierick, D.; Botthoff, J.; Swanson, A. C.; Johnson, R. F.; Allen, M. F.

2017-12-01

The El Niño/Southern Oscillation Event (ENSO) cycle drives large-scale climatic trends globally. Within the new world tropics, El Niño brings dryer weather than the counterpart La Niña. Atmospheric methane growth rates have shown extreme variability over the past three decades. One proposed driver is the proportion of tropical land surface saturated, affecting methane production or consumption. We measured methane flux bimonthly through the transition of 2015-16 ENSO. The date of measurement, across El Niño and La Niña within the typical "rainy" and "dry" seasons, to be the most significant driver of methane flux. Soil moisture varied across this time period, and regulated methane flux. During the strong El Niño, extreme dry soil conditions occurred in a typical "rainy" season month reducing soil moisture. Wetter than usual soil conditions appeared during the "rainy" season month of the moderate La Niña. The dry El Niño soils corresponded to greater methane consumption by tropical forest soils, and a reduced local atmospheric column methane concentration. Conversely, the wet La Niña soils had lower methane consumption and higher local atmospheric column methane concentrations. The ENSO cycle is a strong driver of tropical terrestrial and wetland soil moisture conditions, and can regulate global atmospheric methane dynamics.

Will the warmer temperature bring the more intensity precipitation?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yutong, Z., II; Wang, T.

2017-12-01

Will the warmer temperature bring the more intensity precipitation?Over the past several decades, changes in climate are amplified over the Tibetan Plateau(TP), with warming trend almost being twice as large as the global average. In sharp contrast, there is a large spatial discrepancy of the variations in precipitation extremes, with increasing trends found in the southern and decreasing trends in central TP. These features motivate are urgent need for an observation-based understanding of how precipitation extremes respond to climate change. Here we examine the relation between precipitation intensity with atmospheric temperature, dew point temperature (Td) and convective available potential energy (CAPE) in Tibet Plateau. Owing to the influences of the westerlies and Indian monsoon on Tibetan climate, the stations can be divided into three sub-regions in TP: the westerlies region (north of 35°N, N = 28), the monsoon region (south of 30°N in TP, N = 31), and the transition region (located between 30°N and 35°N, N = 48). We found that the intensity precipitation does not follow the C-C relation and there is a mix of positive and negative slope. To better understand why different scaling occurs with temperature in district region, using the dew point temperature replace the temperature, although there is significant variability in relative humidity values, at most stations, there appears to be a general increase in relative humidity associated. It is likely that the observed rise in relative humidity can assist in explaining the negative scaling of extreme precipitation at westerlies domain and monsoon domain, with the primary reason why precipitation extremes expected to increase follows from the fact that a warmer atmosphere can "hold" more moisture. This suggests that not only on how much the moisture the atmosphere can hold, but on how much moisture exits in atmosphere. To understand the role of dynamic on extreme precipitation, we repeat the precipitation intense analysis using ln(CAPE) as regression. The CAPE is the vertical integral of parcel buoyancy between the level of free convection and level of neutral buoyancy. We find almost all pixels are positive and pass through the 0.05 confidence limit. We can conclude that the intensity of moist convection is an important for the extreme precipitation.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ecker, Christian; Grumiller, Daniel; Stanzer, Philipp

In this paper, we study the time evolution of 2-point functions and entanglement entropy in strongly anisotropic, inhomogeneous and time-dependent N = 4 super Yang-Mills theory in the large N and large ’t Hooft coupling limit using AdS/CFT. On the gravity side this amounts to calculating the length of geodesics and area of extremal surfaces in the dynamical background of two colliding gravitational shockwaves, which we do numerically. We discriminate between three classes of initial conditions corresponding to wide, intermediate and narrow shocks, and show that they exhibit different phenomenology with respect to the nonlocal observables that we determine. Ourmore » results permit to use (holographic) entanglement entropy as an order parameter to distinguish between the two phases of the cross-over from the transparency to the full-stopping scenario in dynamical Yang-Mills plasma formation, which is frequently used as a toy model for heavy ion collisions. The time evolution of entanglement entropy allows to discern four regimes: highly efficient initial growth of entanglement, linear growth, (post) collisional drama and late time (polynomial) fall off. Surprisingly, we found that 2-point functions can be sensitive to the geometry inside the black hole apparent horizon, while we did not find such cases for the entanglement entropy.« less

Fluorescence Fluctuation Approaches to the Study of Adhesion and Signaling

PubMed Central

Bachir, Alexia I.; Kubow, Kristopher E.; Horwitz, Alan R.

2013-01-01

Cell–matrix adhesions are large, multimolecular complexes through which cells sense and respond to their environment. They also mediate migration by serving as traction points and signaling centers and allow the cell to modify the surroucnding tissue. Due to their fundamental role in cell behavior, adhesions are germane to nearly all major human health pathologies. However, adhesions are extremely complex and dynamic structures that include over 100 known interacting proteins and operate over multiple space (nm–µm) and time (ms–min) regimes. Fluorescence fluctuation techniques are well suited for studying adhesions. These methods are sensitive over a large spatiotemporal range and provide a wealth of information including molecular transport dynamics, interactions, and stoichiometry from a single time series. Earlier chapters in this volume have provided the theoretical background, instrumentation, and analysis algorithms for these techniques. In this chapter, we discuss their implementation in living cells to study adhesions in migrating cells. Although each technique and application has its own unique instrumentation and analysis requirements, we provide general guidelines for sample preparation, selection of imaging instrumentation, and optimization of data acquisition and analysis parameters. Finally, we review several recent studies that implement these techniques in the study of adhesions. PMID:23280111

Tropical forests are non-equilibrium ecosystems governed by interspecific competition based on universal 1/6 niche width.

PubMed

Fort, Hugo; Inchausti, Pablo

2013-01-01

Tropical forests are mega-diverse ecosystems that display complex and non-equilibrium dynamics. However, theoretical approaches have largely focused on explaining steady-state behaviour and fitting snapshots of data. Here we show that local and niche interspecific competition can realistically and parsimoniously explain the observed non-equilibrium regime of permanent plots of nine tropical forests, in eight different countries. Our spatially-explicit model, besides predicting with accuracy the main biodiversity metrics for these plots, can also reproduce their dynamics. A central finding is that tropical tree species have a universal niche width of approximately 1/6 of the niche axis that echoes the observed widespread convergence in their functional traits enabling them to exploit similar resources and to coexist despite of having large niche overlap. This niche width yields an average ratio of 0.25 between interspecific and intraspecific competition that corresponds to an intermediate value between the extreme claims of the neutral model and the classical niche-based model of community assembly (where interspecific competition is dominant). In addition, our model can explain and yield observed spatial patterns that classical niche-based and neutral theories cannot.

Rapid post-seismic landslide evacuation boosted by dynamic river width

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Croissant, Thomas; Lague, Dimitri; Steer, Philippe; Davy, Philippe

2017-09-01

Mass wasting caused by large-magnitude earthquakes chokes mountain rivers with several cubic kilometres of sediment. The timescale and mechanisms by which rivers evacuate small to gigantic landslide deposits are poorly known, but are critical for predicting post-seismic geomorphic hazards, interpreting the signature of earthquakes in sedimentary archives and deciphering the coupling between erosion and tectonics. Here, we use a new 2D hydro-sedimentary evolution model to demonstrate that river self-organization into a narrower alluvial channel overlying the bedrock valley dramatically increases sediment transport capacity and reduces export time of gigantic landslides by orders of magnitude compared with existing theory. Predicted export times obey a universal non-linear relationship of landslide volume and pre-landslide valley transport capacity. Upscaling these results to realistic populations of landslides shows that removing half of the total coarse sediment volume introduced by large earthquakes in the fluvial network would typically take 5 to 25 years in various tectonically active mountain belts, with little impact of earthquake magnitude and climate. Dynamic alluvial channel narrowing is therefore a key, previously unrecognized mechanism by which mountain rivers rapidly digest extreme events and maintain their capacity to incise uplifted rocks.

Reponse dynamique des structures sous charges de vent

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gani, Ferawati

The main purpose of this research is to assemble numerical tools that allows realistic dynamic study of structures under wind loading. The availability of such numerical tools is becoming more important for the industry, following previous experiences in structural damages after extreme wind events. The methodology of the present study involves two main steps: (i) preparing the wind loading according to its spatial and temporal correlations by using digitally generated wind or real measured wind; (ii) preparing the numerical model that captures the characteristics of the real structures and respects all the necessary numerical requirements to pursue transient dynamic analyses. The thesis is presented as an ensemble of four articles written for refereed journals and conferences that showcase the contributions of the present study to the advancement of transient dynamic study of structures under wind loading, on the wind model itself (the first article) and on the application of the wind study on complex structures (the next three articles). The articles presented are as follows: (a) the evaluation of three-dimensional correlations of wind, an important issue for more precise prediction of wind loading for flexible and line-like structures, the results presented in this first article helps design engineers to choose a more suitable models to define three-dimensional wind loading; (b) the refinement of design for solar photovoltaic concentrator-tracker structure developed for utility scale, this study addressed concerns related strict operational criteria and fatigue under wind load for a large parabolic truss structure; (c) the study of guyed towers for TLs, the applicability of the static-equivalent method from the current industry documents for the design of this type of flexible TL support was questioned, a simplified method to improve the wind design was proposed; (d) the fundamental issue of nonlinear behaviour under extreme wind loading for single-degree-of-freedom systems is evaluated here, the use of real measured hurricane and winter storm have highlighted the possible interest of taking into account the ductility in the extreme wind loading design. The present research project has shown the versatility of the use of the developed wind study methodology to solve concerns related to different type of complex structures. In addition, this study proposes simplified methods that are useful for practical engineers when there is the need to solve similar problems. Key words: nonlinear, dynamic, wind, guyed tower, parabolic structure, ductility.

Approaching the exa-scale: a real-world evaluation of rendering extremely large data sets

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Patchett, John M; Ahrens, James P; Lo, Li - Ta

2010-10-15

Extremely large scale analysis is becoming increasingly important as supercomputers and their simulations move from petascale to exascale. The lack of dedicated hardware acceleration for rendering on today's supercomputing platforms motivates our detailed evaluation of the possibility of interactive rendering on the supercomputer. In order to facilitate our understanding of rendering on the supercomputing platform, we focus on scalability of rendering algorithms and architecture envisioned for exascale datasets. To understand tradeoffs for dealing with extremely large datasets, we compare three different rendering algorithms for large polygonal data: software based ray tracing, software based rasterization and hardware accelerated rasterization. We presentmore » a case study of strong and weak scaling of rendering extremely large data on both GPU and CPU based parallel supercomputers using Para View, a parallel visualization tool. Wc use three different data sets: two synthetic and one from a scientific application. At an extreme scale, algorithmic rendering choices make a difference and should be considered while approaching exascale computing, visualization, and analysis. We find software based ray-tracing offers a viable approach for scalable rendering of the projected future massive data sizes.« less

Extreme events in total ozone over Arosa: Application of extreme value theory and fingerprints of atmospheric dynamics and chemistry and their effects on mean values and long-term changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rieder, Harald E.; Staehelin, Johannes; Maeder, Jörg A.; Peter, Thomas; Ribatet, Mathieu; Davison, Anthony C.; Stübi, Rene; Weihs, Philipp; Holawe, Franz

2010-05-01

In this study tools from extreme value theory (e.g. Coles, 2001; Ribatet, 2007) are applied for the first time in the field of stratospheric ozone research, as statistical analysis showed that previously used concepts assuming a Gaussian distribution (e.g. fixed deviations from mean values) of total ozone data do not address the internal data structure concerning extremes adequately. The study illustrates that tools based on extreme value theory are appropriate to identify ozone extremes and to describe the tails of the world's longest total ozone record (Arosa, Switzerland - for details see Staehelin et al., 1998a,b) (Rieder et al., 2010a). A daily moving threshold was implemented for consideration of the seasonal cycle in total ozone. The frequency of days with extreme low (termed ELOs) and extreme high (termed EHOs) total ozone and the influence of those on mean values and trends is analyzed for Arosa total ozone time series. The results show (a) an increase in ELOs and (b) a decrease in EHOs during the last decades and (c) that the overall trend during the 1970s and 1980s in total ozone is strongly dominated by changes in these extreme events. After removing the extremes, the time series shows a strongly reduced trend (reduction by a factor of 2.5 for trend in annual mean). Furthermore, it is shown that the fitted model represents the tails of the total ozone data set with very high accuracy over the entire range (including absolute monthly minima and maxima). Also the frequency distribution of ozone mini-holes (using constant thresholds) can be calculated with high accuracy. Analyzing the tails instead of a small fraction of days below constant thresholds provides deeper insight in time series properties. Excursions in the frequency of extreme events reveal "fingerprints" of dynamical factors such as ENSO or NAO, and chemical factors, such as cold Arctic vortex ozone losses, as well as major volcanic eruptions of the 20th century (e.g. Gunung Agung, El Chichón, Mt. Pinatubo). Furthermore, atmospheric loading in ozone depleting substances lead to a continuous modification of column ozone in the northern hemisphere also with respect to extreme values (partly again in connection with polar vortex contributions). It is shown that application of extreme value theory allows the identification of many more such fingerprints than conventional time series analysis of annual and seasonal mean values. Especially, the analysis shows the strong influence of dynamics, revealing that even moderate ENSO and NAO events have a discernible effect on total ozone (Rieder et al., 2010b). Overall the presented new extremes concept provides new information on time series properties, variability, trends and the influence of dynamics and chemistry, complementing earlier analyses focusing only on monthly (or annual) mean values. References: Coles, S.: An Introduction to Statistical Modeling of Extreme Values, Springer Series in Statistics, ISBN:1852334592, Springer, Berlin, 2001. Ribatet, M.: POT: Modelling peaks over a threshold, R News, 7, 34-36, 2007. Rieder ,H.E., Staehelin, J., Maeder, J.A., Ribatet, M., Stübi, R., Weihs, P., Holawe, F., Peter, T., and A.D., Davison (2010): Extreme events in total ozone over Arosa - Part I: Application of extreme value theory, to be submitted to ACPD. Rieder, H.E., Staehelin, J., Maeder, J.A., Ribatet, M., Stübi, R., Weihs, P., Holawe, F., Peter, T., and A.D., Davison (2010): Extreme events in total ozone over Arosa - Part II: Fingerprints of atmospheric dynamics and chemistry and effects on mean values and long-term changes, to be submitted to ACPD. Staehelin, J., Renaud, A., Bader, J., McPeters, R., Viatte, P., Hoegger, B., Bugnion, V., Giroud, M., and Schill, H.: Total ozone series at Arosa (Switzerland): Homogenization and data comparison, J. Geophys. Res., 103(D5), 5827-5842, doi:10.1029/97JD02402, 1998a. Staehelin, J., Kegel, R., and Harris, N. R.: Trend analysis of the homogenized total ozone series of Arosa (Switzerland), 1929-1996, J. Geophys. Res., 103(D7), 8389-8400, doi:10.1029/97JD03650, 1998b.

Mechanical characterization of alloys in extreme conditions of high strain rates and high temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cadoni, Ezio

2018-03-01

The aim of this paper is the description of the mechanical characterization of alloys under extreme conditions of temperature and loading. In fact, in the frame of the Cost Action CA15102 “Solutions for Critical Raw Materials Under Extreme Conditions (CRM-EXTREME)” this aspect is crucial and many industrial applications have to consider the dynamic response of materials. Indeed, for a reduction and substitution of CRMs in alloys is necessary to design the materials and understand if the new materials behave better or if the substitution or reduction badly affect their performance. For this reason, a deep knowledge of the mechanical behaviour at high strain-rates of considered materials is required. In general, machinery manufacturing industry or transport industry as well as energy industry have important dynamic phenomena that are simultaneously affected by extended strain, high strain-rate, damage and pressure, as well as conspicuous temperature gradients. The experimental results in extreme conditions of high strain rate and high temperature of an austenitic stainless steel as well as a high-chromium tempered martensitic reduced activation steel Eurofer97 are presented.

Generation of spiral waves pinned to obstacles in a simulated excitable system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Phantu, Metinee; Kumchaiseemak, Nakorn; Porjai, Porramain; Sutthiopad, Malee; Müller, Stefan C.; Luengviriya, Chaiya; Luengviriya, Jiraporn

2017-09-01

Pinning phenomena emerge in many dynamical systems. They are found to stabilize extreme conditions such as superconductivity and super fluidity. The dynamics of pinned spiral waves, whose tips trace the boundary of obstacles, also play an important role in the human health. In heart, such pinned waves cause longer tachycardia. In this article, we present two methods for generating pinned spiral waves in a simulated excitable system. In method A, an obstacle is set in the system prior to an ignition of a spiral wave. This method may be suitable only for the case of large obstacles since it often fails when used for small obstacles. In method B, a spiral wave is generated before an obstacle is placed at the spiral tip. With this method, a pinned spiral wave is always obtained, regardless the obstacle size. We demonstrate that after a transient interval the dynamics of the pinned spiral waves generated by the methods A and B are identical. The initiation of pinned spiral waves in both two- and three-dimensional systems is illustrated.

Detection of timescales in evolving complex systems

PubMed Central

Darst, Richard K.; Granell, Clara; Arenas, Alex; Gómez, Sergio; Saramäki, Jari; Fortunato, Santo

2016-01-01

Most complex systems are intrinsically dynamic in nature. The evolution of a dynamic complex system is typically represented as a sequence of snapshots, where each snapshot describes the configuration of the system at a particular instant of time. This is often done by using constant intervals but a better approach would be to define dynamic intervals that match the evolution of the system’s configuration. To this end, we propose a method that aims at detecting evolutionary changes in the configuration of a complex system, and generates intervals accordingly. We show that evolutionary timescales can be identified by looking for peaks in the similarity between the sets of events on consecutive time intervals of data. Tests on simple toy models reveal that the technique is able to detect evolutionary timescales of time-varying data both when the evolution is smooth as well as when it changes sharply. This is further corroborated by analyses of several real datasets. Our method is scalable to extremely large datasets and is computationally efficient. This allows a quick, parameter-free detection of multiple timescales in the evolution of a complex system. PMID:28004820

Dynamics of Numerics & Spurious Behaviors in CFD Computations. Revised

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yee, Helen C.; Sweby, Peter K.

1997-01-01

The global nonlinear behavior of finite discretizations for constant time steps and fixed or adaptive grid spacings is studied using tools from dynamical systems theory. Detailed analysis of commonly used temporal and spatial discretizations for simple model problems is presented. The role of dynamics in the understanding of long time behavior of numerical integration and the nonlinear stability, convergence, and reliability of using time-marching approaches for obtaining steady-state numerical solutions in computational fluid dynamics (CFD) is explored. The study is complemented with examples of spurious behavior observed in steady and unsteady CFD computations. The CFD examples were chosen to illustrate non-apparent spurious behavior that was difficult to detect without extensive grid and temporal refinement studies and some knowledge from dynamical systems theory. Studies revealed the various possible dangers of misinterpreting numerical simulation of realistic complex flows that are constrained by available computing power. In large scale computations where the physics of the problem under study is not well understood and numerical simulations are the only viable means of solution, extreme care must be taken in both computation and interpretation of the numerical data. The goal of this paper is to explore the important role that dynamical systems theory can play in the understanding of the global nonlinear behavior of numerical algorithms and to aid the identification of the sources of numerical uncertainties in CFD.

The 'Year without summer 1816

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arfeuille, F.; Rozanov, E.; Peter, T.; Weisenstein, D.; Hadorn, G.; Bodenmann, T.; Brönnimann, S.

2010-09-01

One famous example of an extreme climatic event is the cold summer of 1816 in Europe and North America. This specific year, which was later called the "Year without summer 1816", had profound social and environmental effects. The cataclysmic eruption of Mt Tambora is now commonly known to have largely contributed to the negative temperature anomalies of the summer 1816, but some uncertainties remain. The eruption which occurred in April 1815 is the largest within the last 500 years and this extreme climatic forcing provides a real test for climate models. A crucial parameter to assess in order to simulate this eruption is the aerosol size distribution, which strongly influences the radiative impact of the aerosols (through changes in albedo and residence time in the stratosphere, among others) and the impacts on dynamics and chemistry. The representation of this major forcing is done by using the AER-2D aerosol model which calculates the size distribution of the aerosols formed after the eruption. The modeling of the climatic impacts is then done by the state-of-the-art Chemistry-Climate model (CCM) SOCOL. The characteristics of the Tambora eruption and results from simulations made using the aerosol model/CCM, with an emphasis on the radiative and chemical implications of the large aerosol, will be shown. For instance, the specific absorption/scattering ratio of Mt.Tambora aerosols induced a large stratospheric warming which will be analyzed. The climatic impacts will also be discussed in regards of the high sedimentation rate of Mt. Tambora aerosols, leading to a fast decrease of the atmospheric optical depth in the first two years after the eruption. The link will be made between the modeling results and proxy-reconstructions as well as with available historical daily data from Geneva, Switzerland. Finally, insights on the contemporary response to this climatic extreme will be shown.

Conditional nonlinear optimal perturbations based on the particle swarm optimization and their applications to the predictability problems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zheng, Qin; Yang, Zubin; Sha, Jianxin; Yan, Jun

2017-02-01

In predictability problem research, the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP) describes the initial perturbation that satisfies a certain constraint condition and causes the largest prediction error at the prediction time. The CNOP has been successfully applied in estimation of the lower bound of maximum predictable time (LBMPT). Generally, CNOPs are calculated by a gradient descent algorithm based on the adjoint model, which is called ADJ-CNOP. This study, through the two-dimensional Ikeda model, investigates the impacts of the nonlinearity on ADJ-CNOP and the corresponding precision problems when using ADJ-CNOP to estimate the LBMPT. Our conclusions are that (1) when the initial perturbation is large or the prediction time is long, the strong nonlinearity of the dynamical model in the prediction variable will lead to failure of the ADJ-CNOP method, and (2) when the objective function has multiple extreme values, ADJ-CNOP has a large probability of producing local CNOPs, hence making a false estimation of the LBMPT. Furthermore, the particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm, one kind of intelligent algorithm, is introduced to solve this problem. The method using PSO to compute CNOP is called PSO-CNOP. The results of numerical experiments show that even with a large initial perturbation and long prediction time, or when the objective function has multiple extreme values, PSO-CNOP can always obtain the global CNOP. Since the PSO algorithm is a heuristic search algorithm based on the population, it can overcome the impact of nonlinearity and the disturbance from multiple extremes of the objective function. In addition, to check the estimation accuracy of the LBMPT presented by PSO-CNOP and ADJ-CNOP, we partition the constraint domain of initial perturbations into sufficiently fine grid meshes and take the LBMPT obtained by the filtering method as a benchmark. The result shows that the estimation presented by PSO-CNOP is closer to the true value than the one by ADJ-CNOP with the forecast time increasing.

The influence of hydrologic residence time on lake carbon cycling dynamics following extreme precipitation events

Treesearch

Jacob A. Zwart; Stephen D. Sebestyen; Christopher T. Solomon; Stuart E. Jones

2016-01-01

The frequency and magnitude of extreme events are expected to increase in the future, yet little is known about effects of such events on ecosystem structure and function. We examined how extreme precipitation events affect exports of terrestrial dissolved organic carbon (t-DOC) from watersheds to lakes as well as in-lake heterotrophy in three north-temperate lakes....

MaRIE 1.0: The Matter-Radiation Interactions in Extremes Project, and the Challenge of Dynamic Mesoscale Imaging

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Barnes, Cris William; Barber, John L.; Kober, Edward Martin

The Matter-Radiation Interactions in Extremes project will build the experimental facility for the time-dependent control of dynamic material performance. An x-ray free electron laser at up to 42-keV fundamental energy and with photon pulses down to sub-nanosecond spacing, MaRIE 1.0 is designed to meet the challenges of time-dependent mesoscale materials science. Those challenges will be outlined, the techniques of coherent diffractive imaging and dynamic polycrystalline diffraction described, and the resulting requirements defined for a coherent x-ray source. The talk concludes with the role of the MaRIE project and science in the future.

Space Radiation Effects in Advanced Flash Memories

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johnston, A. H.

2001-01-01

Memory storage requirements in space systems have steadily increased, much like storage requirements in terrestrial systems. Large arrays of dynamic memories (DRAMs) have been used in solid-state recorders, relying on a combination of shielding and error-detection-and correction (EDAC) to overcome the extreme sensitivity of DRAMs to space radiation. For example, a 2-Gbit memory (with 4-Mb DRAMs) used on the Clementine mission functioned perfectly during its moon mapping mission, in spite of an average of 71 memory bit flips per day from heavy ions. Although EDAC worked well with older types of memory circuits, newer DRAMs use extremely complex internal architectures which has made it increasingly difficult to implement EDAC. Some newer DRAMs have also exhibited catastrophic latchup. Flash memories are an intriguing alternative to DRAMs because of their nonvolatile storage and extremely high storage density, particularly for applications where writing is done relatively infrequently. This paper discusses radiation effects in advanced flash memories, including general observations on scaling and architecture as well as the specific experience obtained at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory in evaluating high-density flash memories for use on the NASA mission to Europa, one of Jupiter's moons. This particular mission must pass through the Jovian radiation belts, which imposes a very demanding radiation requirement.

Statistical Downscaling and Bias Correction of Climate Model Outputs for Climate Change Impact Assessment in the U.S. Northeast

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ahmed, Kazi Farzan; Wang, Guiling; Silander, John; Wilson, Adam M.; Allen, Jenica M.; Horton, Radley; Anyah, Richard

2013-01-01

Statistical downscaling can be used to efficiently downscale a large number of General Circulation Model (GCM) outputs to a fine temporal and spatial scale. To facilitate regional impact assessments, this study statistically downscales (to 1/8deg spatial resolution) and corrects the bias of daily maximum and minimum temperature and daily precipitation data from six GCMs and four Regional Climate Models (RCMs) for the northeast United States (US) using the Statistical Downscaling and Bias Correction (SDBC) approach. Based on these downscaled data from multiple models, five extreme indices were analyzed for the future climate to quantify future changes of climate extremes. For a subset of models and indices, results based on raw and bias corrected model outputs for the present-day climate were compared with observations, which demonstrated that bias correction is important not only for GCM outputs, but also for RCM outputs. For future climate, bias correction led to a higher level of agreements among the models in predicting the magnitude and capturing the spatial pattern of the extreme climate indices. We found that the incorporation of dynamical downscaling as an intermediate step does not lead to considerable differences in the results of statistical downscaling for the study domain.

Merging Black Hole Binaries in Galactic Nuclei: Implications for Advanced-LIGO Detections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Antonini, Fabio; Rasio, Frederic A.

2016-11-01

Motivated by the recent detection of gravitational waves from the black hole binary merger GW150914, we study the dynamical evolution of (stellar-mass) black holes in galactic nuclei, where massive star clusters reside. With masses of ˜ {10}7 {M}⊙ and sizes of only a few parsecs, nuclear star clusters (NSCs) are the densest stellar systems observed in the local universe and represent a robust environment where black hole binaries can dynamically form, harden, and merge. We show that due to their large escape speeds, NSCs can retain a large fraction of their merger remnants. Successive mergers can then lead to significant growth and produce black hole mergers of several tens of solar masses similar to GW150914 and up to a few hundreds of solar masses, without the need to invoke extremely low metallicity environments. We use a semi-analytical approach to describe the dynamics of black holes in massive star clusters. Our models give a black hole binary merger rate of ≈ 1.5 {{Gpc}}-3 {{yr}}-1 from NSCs, implying up to a few tens of possible detections per year with Advanced LIGO. Moreover, we find a local merger rate of ˜ 1 {{Gpc}}-3 {{yr}}-1 for high mass black hole binaries similar to GW150914; a merger rate comparable to or higher than that of similar binaries assembled dynamically in globular clusters (GCs). Finally, we show that if all black holes receive high natal kicks, ≳ 50 {km} {{{s}}}-1, then NSCs will dominate the local merger rate of binary black holes compared to either GCs or isolated binary evolution.

Examining Fundamental Movement Competency and Closed-Chain Upper-Extremity Dynamic Balance in Swimmers.

PubMed

Bullock, Garrett S; Brookreson, Nate; Knab, Amy M; Butler, Robert J

2017-06-01

Abnormal fundamental movement patterns and upper-quarter dynamic balance are proposed mechanisms affecting athletic performance and injury risk. There are few studies investigating functional movement and closed-chain upper-extremity dynamic stability in swimmers. The purpose of this study was to determine differences in fundamental movement competency and closed-chain upper-extremity dynamic balance, using the Functional Movement Screen (FMS) and Upper-Quarter Y Balance Test (YBT-UQ), of high school (HS; n = 70) and collegiate (COL; n = 70) swimmers. Variables included the individual movement tests on the FMS and the average normalized reach (percent limb length [%LL]) for each direction, with the YBT-UQ. Statistical analysis was completed using a chi square for the independent test scores on the FMS while independent samples t-test to examine performance on the YBT-UQ (p ≤ 0.05). HS swimmers exhibited a statistically significant greater percentage of below average performance (score of 0 or 1) on the following FMS tests: lunge (HS: 22.9%, COL: 4.3%), hurdle step (HS: 31.4%, COL: 7.1%), and push-up (HS: 61.4%, COL: 31.4%). Furthermore, COL males performed worse in the lunge (male: 9%, female: 0%), whereas COL females had poorer efficiency in the push-up (male: 17.6%, female: 44%). Significant effects of competition level and sex were observed in YBT-UQ medial reach (HS: female 92.06, male 101.63; COL: female 101.3, male 101.5% LL). Individual fundamental movement patterns that involved lumbopelvic neuromuscular control differed between HS and COL swimmers. General upper-extremity dynamic balance differed between competition levels. These data may be helpful in understanding injury and performance-based normative data for participation and return to swimming.

Parameter Estimations of Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) Model over the Life History of a Key Antarctic Species: The Antarctic Sea Star Odontaster validus Koehler, 1906.

PubMed

Agüera, Antonio; Collard, Marie; Jossart, Quentin; Moreau, Camille; Danis, Bruno

2015-01-01

Marine organisms in Antarctica are adapted to an extreme ecosystem including extremely stable temperatures and strong seasonality due to changes in day length. It is now largely accepted that Southern Ocean organisms are particularly vulnerable to global warming with some regions already being challenged by a rapid increase of temperature. Climate change affects both the physical and biotic components of marine ecosystems and will have an impact on the distribution and population dynamics of Antarctic marine organisms. To predict and assess the effect of climate change on marine ecosystems a more comprehensive knowledge of the life history and physiology of key species is urgently needed. In this study we estimate the Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) model parameters for key benthic Antarctic species the sea star Odontaster validus using available information from literature and experiments. The DEB theory is unique in capturing the metabolic processes of an organism through its entire life cycle as a function of temperature and food availability. The DEB model allows for the inclusion of the different life history stages, and thus, becomes a tool that can be used to model lifetime feeding, growth, reproduction, and their responses to changes in biotic and abiotic conditions. The DEB model presented here includes the estimation of reproduction handling rules for the development of simultaneous oocyte cohorts within the gonad. Additionally it links the DEB model reserves to the pyloric caeca an organ whose function has long been ascribed to energy storage. Model parameters described a slowed down metabolism of long living animals that mature slowly. O. validus has a large reserve that-matching low maintenance costs- allow withstanding long periods of starvation. Gonad development is continuous and individual cohorts developed within the gonads grow in biomass following a power function of the age of the cohort. The DEB model developed here for O. validus allowed us to increase our knowledge on the ecophysiology of this species, providing new insights on the role of food availability and temperature on its life cycle and reproduction strategy.

Influence of blocking on Northern European and Western Russian heatwaves in large climate model ensembles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schaller, N.; Sillmann, J.; Anstey, J.; Fischer, E. M.; Grams, C. M.; Russo, S.

2018-05-01

Better preparedness for summer heatwaves could mitigate their adverse effects on society. This can potentially be attained through an increased understanding of the relationship between heatwaves and one of their main dynamical drivers, atmospheric blocking. In the 1979–2015 period, we find that there is a significant correlation between summer heatwave magnitudes and the number of days influenced by atmospheric blocking in Northern Europe and Western Russia. Using three large global climate model ensembles, we find similar correlations, indicating that these three models are able to represent the relationship between extreme temperature and atmospheric blocking, despite having biases in their simulation of individual climate variables such as temperature or geopotential height. Our results emphasize the need to use large ensembles of different global climate models as single realizations do not always capture this relationship. The three large ensembles further suggest that the relationship between summer heatwaves and atmospheric blocking will not change in the future. This could be used to statistically model heatwaves with atmospheric blocking as a covariate and aid decision-makers in planning disaster risk reduction and adaptation to climate change.

Exploiting multi-scale parallelism for large scale numerical modelling of laser wakefield accelerators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fonseca, R. A.; Vieira, J.; Fiuza, F.; Davidson, A.; Tsung, F. S.; Mori, W. B.; Silva, L. O.

2013-12-01

A new generation of laser wakefield accelerators (LWFA), supported by the extreme accelerating fields generated in the interaction of PW-Class lasers and underdense targets, promises the production of high quality electron beams in short distances for multiple applications. Achieving this goal will rely heavily on numerical modelling to further understand the underlying physics and identify optimal regimes, but large scale modelling of these scenarios is computationally heavy and requires the efficient use of state-of-the-art petascale supercomputing systems. We discuss the main difficulties involved in running these simulations and the new developments implemented in the OSIRIS framework to address these issues, ranging from multi-dimensional dynamic load balancing and hybrid distributed/shared memory parallelism to the vectorization of the PIC algorithm. We present the results of the OASCR Joule Metric program on the issue of large scale modelling of LWFA, demonstrating speedups of over 1 order of magnitude on the same hardware. Finally, scalability to over ˜106 cores and sustained performance over ˜2 P Flops is demonstrated, opening the way for large scale modelling of LWFA scenarios.

Large-scale fabrication of micro-lens array by novel end-fly-cutting-servo diamond machining.

PubMed

Zhu, Zhiwei; To, Suet; Zhang, Shaojian

2015-08-10

Fast/slow tool servo (FTS/STS) diamond turning is a very promising technique for the generation of micro-lens array (MLA). However, it is still a challenge to process MLA in large scale due to certain inherent limitations of this technique. In the present study, a novel ultra-precision diamond cutting method, as the end-fly-cutting-servo (EFCS) system, is adopted and investigated for large-scale generation of MLA. After a detailed discussion of the characteristic advantages for processing MLA, the optimal toolpath generation strategy for the EFCS is developed with consideration of the geometry and installation pose of the diamond tool. A typical aspheric MLA over a large area is experimentally fabricated, and the resulting form accuracy, surface micro-topography and machining efficiency are critically investigated. The result indicates that the MLA with homogeneous quality over the whole area is obtained. Besides, high machining efficiency, extremely small volume of control points for the toolpath, and optimal usage of system dynamics of the machine tool during the whole cutting can be simultaneously achieved.

Predictability of extremes in non-linear hierarchically organized systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kossobokov, V. G.; Soloviev, A.

2011-12-01

Understanding the complexity of non-linear dynamics of hierarchically organized systems progresses to new approaches in assessing hazard and risk of the extreme catastrophic events. In particular, a series of interrelated step-by-step studies of seismic process along with its non-stationary though self-organized behaviors, has led already to reproducible intermediate-term middle-range earthquake forecast/prediction technique that has passed control in forward real-time applications during the last two decades. The observed seismic dynamics prior to and after many mega, great, major, and strong earthquakes demonstrate common features of predictability and diverse behavior in course durable phase transitions in complex hierarchical non-linear system of blocks-and-faults of the Earth lithosphere. The confirmed fractal nature of earthquakes and their distribution in space and time implies that many traditional estimations of seismic hazard (from term-less to short-term ones) are usually based on erroneous assumptions of easy tractable analytical models, which leads to widespread practice of their deceptive application. The consequences of underestimation of seismic hazard propagate non-linearly into inflicted underestimation of risk and, eventually, into unexpected societal losses due to earthquakes and associated phenomena (i.e., collapse of buildings, landslides, tsunamis, liquefaction, etc.). The studies aimed at forecast/prediction of extreme events (interpreted as critical transitions) in geophysical and socio-economical systems include: (i) large earthquakes in geophysical systems of the lithosphere blocks-and-faults, (ii) starts and ends of economic recessions, (iii) episodes of a sharp increase in the unemployment rate, (iv) surge of the homicides in socio-economic systems. These studies are based on a heuristic search of phenomena preceding critical transitions and application of methodologies of pattern recognition of infrequent events. Any study of rare phenomena of highly complex origin, by their nature, implies using problem oriented methods, which design breaks the limits of classical statistical or econometric applications. The unambiguously designed forecast/prediction algorithms of the "yes or no" variety, analyze the observable quantitative integrals and indicators available to a given date, then provides unambiguous answer to the question whether a critical transition should be expected or not in the next time interval. Since the predictability of an originating non-linear dynamical system is limited in principle, the probabilistic component of forecast/prediction algorithms is represented by the empirical probabilities of alarms, on one side, and failures-to-predict, on the other, estimated on control sets achieved in the retro- and prospective experiments. Predicting in advance is the only decisive test of forecast/predictions and the relevant on-going experiments are conducted in the case seismic extremes, recessions, and increases of unemployment rate. The results achieved in real-time testing keep being encouraging and confirm predictability of the extremes.

Evaluation and comparison of different RCMs simulations of the Mediterranean climate: a view on the impact of model resolution and Mediterranean sea coupling.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Panthou, Gérémy; Vrac, Mathieu; Drobinski, Philippe; Bastin, Sophie; Somot, Samuel; Li, Laurent

2015-04-01

As regularly stated by numerous authors, the Mediterranean climate is considered as one major climate 'hot spot'. At least, three reasons may explain this statement. First, this region is known for being regularly affected by extreme hydro-meteorological events (heavy precipitation and flash-floods during the autumn season; droughts and heat waves during spring and summer). Second, the vulnerability of populations in regard of these extreme events is expected to increase during the XXIst century (at least due to the projected population growth in this region). At last, Global Circulation Models project that this regional climate will be highly sensitive to climate change. Moreover, global warming is expected to intensify the hydrological cycle and thus to increase the frequency of extreme hydro-meteorological events. In order to propose adaptation strategies, the robust estimation of the future evolution of the Mediterranean climate and the associated extreme hydro-meteorological events (in terms of intensity/frequency) is of great relevance. However, these projections are characterized by large uncertainties. Many components of the simulation chain can explain these large uncertainties : (i) uncertainties concerning the emission scenario; (ii) climate model simulations suffer of parametrization errors and uncertainties concerning the initial state of the climate; and (iii) the additional uncertainties given by the (dynamical or statistical) downscaling techniques and the impact model. Narrowing (as fine as possible) these uncertainties is a major challenge of the actual climate research. One way for that is to reduce the uncertainties associated with each component. In this study, we are interested in evaluating the potential improvement of : (i) coupled RCM simulations (with the Mediterranean Sea) in comparison with atmosphere only (stand-alone) RCM simulations and (ii) RCM simulations at a finer resolution in comparison with larger resolution. For that, three different RCMs (WRF, ALADIN, LMDZ4) were run, forced by ERA-Interim reanalyses, within the MED-CORDEX experiment. For each RCM, different versions (coupled/stand-alone, high/low resolution) were realized. A large set of scores was developed and applied in order to evaluate the performances of these different RCMs simulations. These scores were applied for three variables (daily precipitation amount, mean daily air temperature and the dry spell lengths). A particular attention was given to the RCM capability to reproduce the seasonal and spatial pattern of extreme statistics. Results show that the differences between coupled and stand-alone RCMs are localized very near the Mediterranean sea and that the model resolution has a slight impact on the scores obtained. Globally, the main differences between the RCM simulations come from the RCM used. Keywords: Mediterranean climate, extreme hydro-meteorological events, RCM simulations, evaluation of climate simulations

Impacts of extreme weather events on highly eutrophic marine ecosystem (Rogoznica Lake, Adriatic coast)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ciglenečki, I.; Janeković, I.; Marguš, M.; Bura-Nakić, E.; Carić, M.; Ljubešić, Z.; Batistić, M.; Hrustić, E.; Dupčić, I.; Garić, R.

2015-10-01

Rogoznica Lake is highly eutrophic marine system located on the Eastern Adriatic coast (43°32‧N, 15°58‧E). Because of the relatively small size (10,276 m2) and depth (15 m) it experiences strong natural and indirect anthropogenic influences. Dynamics within the lake is characterized by the extreme and highly variable environmental conditions (seasonal variations in salinity and temperature, water stratification and mixing, redox and euxinic conditions, concentrations of nutrients) which significantly influence the biology inside the lake. Due to the high phytoplankton activity, the upper part of the water column is well oxygenated, while hypoxia/anoxia usually occurs in the bottom layers. Anoxic part of the water column is characterized with high concentrations of sulfide (up to 5 mM) and nutrients (NH4+ up to 315 μM; PO43- up to 53 μM; SiO44- up to 680 μM) indicating the pronounced remineralization of the allochthonous organic matter, produced in the surface waters. The mixolimnion varies significantly within a season feeling effects of the Adriatic atmospheric and ocean dynamics (temperature, wind, heat fluxes, rainfall) which all affect the vertical stability and possibly induce vertical mixing and/or turnover. Seasonal vertical mixing usually occurs during the autumn/winter upon the breakdown of the stratification, injecting oxygen-rich water from the surface into the deeper layers. Depending on the intensity and duration of the vertical dynamics (slower diffusion and/or faster turnover of the water layers) anoxic conditions could developed within the whole water column. Extreme weather events such as abrupt change in the air temperature accompanied with a strong wind and consequently heat flux are found to be a key triggering mechanism for the fast turnover, introducing a large amount of nutrients and sulfur species from deeper parts to the surface. Increased concentration of nutrients, especially ammonium, phosphate, and silicates persisting for several months after the mixing event, together with anoxic stress conditions, additionally influence already stressed ecosystem, hence shifting the community structure and food/web interactions in this marine system.

Game theory and extremal optimization for community detection in complex dynamic networks.

PubMed

Lung, Rodica Ioana; Chira, Camelia; Andreica, Anca

2014-01-01

The detection of evolving communities in dynamic complex networks is a challenging problem that recently received attention from the research community. Dynamics clearly add another complexity dimension to the difficult task of community detection. Methods should be able to detect changes in the network structure and produce a set of community structures corresponding to different timestamps and reflecting the evolution in time of network data. We propose a novel approach based on game theory elements and extremal optimization to address dynamic communities detection. Thus, the problem is formulated as a mathematical game in which nodes take the role of players that seek to choose a community that maximizes their profit viewed as a fitness function. Numerical results obtained for both synthetic and real-world networks illustrate the competitive performance of this game theoretical approach.

Extreme precipitation events and related weather patterns over Iraq

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

raheem Al-nassar, Ali; Sangrà, Pablo; Alarcón, Marta

2016-04-01

This study aims to investigate the extreme precipitation events and the associated weather phenomena in the Middle East and particularly in Iraq. For this purpose we used Baghdad daily precipitation records from the Iraqi Meteorological and Seismology Organization combined with ECMWF (ERA-Interim) reanalysis data for the period from January 2002 to December 2013. Extreme events were found statistically at the 90% percentile of the recorded precipitation, and were highly correlated with hydrological flooding in some cities of Iraq. We identified fifteen extreme precipitation events. The analysis of the corresponding weather patterns (500 hPa and 250 hPa geopotential and velocity field distribution) indicated that 5 events were related with cut off low causing the highest precipitation (180 mm), 3 events related with rex block (158 mm), 3 events related with jet streak occurrence (130 mm) and 4 events related with troughs (107 mm). . Five of these events caused flash floods and in particular one of them related with a rex block was the most dramatic heavy rain event in Iraq in 30 years. We investigated for each case the convective instability and dynamical forcing together with humidity sources. For convective instability we explored the distribution of the K index and SWEAT index. For dynamical forcing we analyzed at several levels Q vector, divergence, potential and relative vorticity advection and omega vertical velocity. Source of humidity was investigated through humidity and convergence of specific humidity distribution. One triggering factor of all the events is the advection and convergence of humidity from the Red Sea and the Persian Gulf. Therefore a necessary condition for extreme precipitation in Iraq is the advection and convergence of humidity from the Red Sea and Persian Gulf. Our preliminary analysis also indicates that extreme precipitation events are primary dynamical forced playing convective instability a secondary role.

Microspatial ecotone dynamics at a shifting range limit: plant–soil variation across salt marsh–mangrove interfaces

USGS Publications Warehouse

Yando, Erik S.; Osland, Michael J.; Hester, Mark H.

2018-01-01

Ecotone dynamics and shifting range limits can be used to advance our understanding of the ecological implications of future range expansions in response to climate change. In the northern Gulf of Mexico, the salt marsh–mangrove ecotone is an area where range limits and ecotone dynamics can be studied in tandem as recent decreases in winter temperature extremes have allowed for mangrove expansion at the expense of salt marsh. In this study, we assessed aboveground and belowground plant–soil dynamics across the salt marsh–mangrove ecotone quantifying micro-spatial patterns in horizontal extent. Specifically, we studied vegetation and rooting dynamics of large and small trees, the impact of salt marshes (e.g. species and structure) on mangroves, and the influence of vegetation on soil properties along transects from underneath the mangrove canopy into the surrounding salt marsh. Vegetation and rooting dynamics differed in horizontal reach, and there was a positive relationship between mangrove tree height and rooting extent. We found that the horizontal expansion of mangrove roots into salt marsh extended up to eight meters beyond the aboveground boundary. Variation in vegetation structure and local hydrology appear to control mangrove seedling dynamics. Finally, soil carbon density and organic matter did not differ within locations across the salt marsh-mangrove interface. By studying aboveground and belowground variation across the ecotone, we can better predict the ecological effects of continued range expansion in response to climate change.

Microspatial ecotone dynamics at a shifting range limit: plant-soil variation across salt marsh-mangrove interfaces.

PubMed

Yando, E S; Osland, M J; Hester, M W

2018-05-01

Ecotone dynamics and shifting range limits can be used to advance our understanding of the ecological implications of future range expansions in response to climate change. In the northern Gulf of Mexico, the salt marsh-mangrove ecotone is an area where range limits and ecotone dynamics can be studied in tandem as recent decreases in winter temperature extremes have allowed for mangrove expansion at the expense of salt marsh. In this study, we assessed aboveground and belowground plant-soil dynamics across the salt marsh-mangrove ecotone quantifying micro-spatial patterns in horizontal extent. Specifically, we studied vegetation and rooting dynamics of large and small trees, the impact of salt marshes (e.g. species and structure) on mangroves, and the influence of vegetation on soil properties along transects from underneath the mangrove canopy into the surrounding salt marsh. Vegetation and rooting dynamics differed in horizontal reach, and there was a positive relationship between mangrove tree height and rooting extent. We found that the horizontal expansion of mangrove roots into salt marsh extended up to eight meters beyond the aboveground boundary. Variation in vegetation structure and local hydrology appear to control mangrove seedling dynamics. Finally, soil carbon density and organic matter did not differ within locations across the salt marsh-mangrove interface. By studying aboveground and belowground variation across the ecotone, we can better predict the ecological effects of continued range expansion in response to climate change.

In vivo quantitative imaging of photoassimilate transport dynamics and allocation in large plants using a commercial positron emission tomography (PET) scanner

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Karve, Abhijit A.; Alexoff, David; Kim, Dohyun

Although important aspects of whole-plant carbon allocation in crop plants (e.g., to grain) occur late in development when the plants are large, techniques to study carbon transport and allocation processes have not been adapted for large plants. Positron emission tomography (PET), developed for dynamic imaging in medicine, has been applied in plant studies to measure the transport and allocation patterns of carbohydrates, nutrients, and phytohormones labeled with positron-emitting radioisotopes. However, the cost of PET and its limitation to smaller plants has restricted its use in plant biology. Here we describe the adaptation and optimization of a commercial clinical PET scannermore » to measure transport dynamics and allocation patterns of 11C-photoassimilates in large crops. Based on measurements of a phantom, we optimized instrument settings, including use of 3-D mode and attenuation correction to maximize the accuracy of measurements. To demonstrate the utility of PET, we measured 11C-photoassimilate transport and allocation in Sorghum bicolor, an important staple crop, at vegetative and reproductive stages (40 and 70 days after planting; DAP). The 11C-photoassimilate transport speed did not change over the two developmental stages. However, within a stem, transport speeds were reduced across nodes, likely due to higher 11C-photoassimilate unloading in the nodes. Photosynthesis in leaves and the amount of 11C that was exported to the rest of the plant decreased as plants matured. In young plants, exported 11C was allocated mostly (88 %) to the roots and stem, but in flowering plants (70 DAP) the majority of the exported 11C (64 %) was allocated to the apex. Our results show that commercial PET scanners can be used reliably to measure whole-plant C-allocation in large plants nondestructively including, importantly, allocation to roots in soil. This capability revealed extreme changes in carbon allocation in sorghum plants, as they advanced to maturity. Further, our results suggest that nodes may be important control points for photoassimilate distribution in crops of the family Poaceae. In conclusion, quantifying real-time carbon allocation and photoassimilate transport dynamics, as demonstrated here, will be important for functional genomic studies to unravel the mechanisms controlling phloem transport in large crop plants, which will provide crucial insights for improving yields.« less

In vivo quantitative imaging of photoassimilate transport dynamics and allocation in large plants using a commercial positron emission tomography (PET) scanner

DOE PAGES

Karve, Abhijit A.; Alexoff, David; Kim, Dohyun; ...

2015-11-09

Although important aspects of whole-plant carbon allocation in crop plants (e.g., to grain) occur late in development when the plants are large, techniques to study carbon transport and allocation processes have not been adapted for large plants. Positron emission tomography (PET), developed for dynamic imaging in medicine, has been applied in plant studies to measure the transport and allocation patterns of carbohydrates, nutrients, and phytohormones labeled with positron-emitting radioisotopes. However, the cost of PET and its limitation to smaller plants has restricted its use in plant biology. Here we describe the adaptation and optimization of a commercial clinical PET scannermore » to measure transport dynamics and allocation patterns of 11C-photoassimilates in large crops. Based on measurements of a phantom, we optimized instrument settings, including use of 3-D mode and attenuation correction to maximize the accuracy of measurements. To demonstrate the utility of PET, we measured 11C-photoassimilate transport and allocation in Sorghum bicolor, an important staple crop, at vegetative and reproductive stages (40 and 70 days after planting; DAP). The 11C-photoassimilate transport speed did not change over the two developmental stages. However, within a stem, transport speeds were reduced across nodes, likely due to higher 11C-photoassimilate unloading in the nodes. Photosynthesis in leaves and the amount of 11C that was exported to the rest of the plant decreased as plants matured. In young plants, exported 11C was allocated mostly (88 %) to the roots and stem, but in flowering plants (70 DAP) the majority of the exported 11C (64 %) was allocated to the apex. Our results show that commercial PET scanners can be used reliably to measure whole-plant C-allocation in large plants nondestructively including, importantly, allocation to roots in soil. This capability revealed extreme changes in carbon allocation in sorghum plants, as they advanced to maturity. Further, our results suggest that nodes may be important control points for photoassimilate distribution in crops of the family Poaceae. In conclusion, quantifying real-time carbon allocation and photoassimilate transport dynamics, as demonstrated here, will be important for functional genomic studies to unravel the mechanisms controlling phloem transport in large crop plants, which will provide crucial insights for improving yields.« less

Mid-Century Warming in the Los Angeles Region and its Uncertainty using Dynamical and Statistical Downscaling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, F.; Hall, A. D.; Walton, D.; Capps, S. B.; Qu, X.; Huang, H. J.; Berg, N.; Jousse, A.; Schwartz, M.; Nakamura, M.; Cerezo-Mota, R.

2012-12-01

Using a combination of dynamical and statistical downscaling techniques, we projected mid-21st century warming in the Los Angeles region at 2-km resolution. To account for uncertainty associated with the trajectory of future greenhouse gas emissions, we examined projections for both "business-as-usual" (RCP8.5) and "mitigation" (RCP2.6) emissions scenarios from the Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). To account for the considerable uncertainty associated with choice of global climate model, we downscaled results for all available global climate models in CMIP5. For the business-as-usual scenario, we find that by the mid-21st century, the most likely warming is roughly 2.6°C averaged over the region's land areas, with a 95% confidence that the warming lies between 0.9 and 4.2°C. The high resolution of the projections reveals a pronounced spatial pattern in the warming: High elevations and inland areas separated from the coast by at least one mountain complex warm 20 to 50% more than the areas near the coast or within the Los Angeles basin. This warming pattern is especially apparent in summertime. The summertime warming contrast between the inland and coastal zones has a large effect on the most likely expected number of extremely hot days per year. Coastal locations and areas within the Los Angeles basin see roughly two to three times the number of extremely hot days, while high elevations and inland areas typically experience approximately three to five times the number of extremely hot days. Under the mitigation emissions scenario, the most likely warming and increase in heat extremes are somewhat smaller. However, the majority of the warming seen in the business-as-usual scenario still occurs at all locations in the most likely case under the mitigation scenario, and heat extremes still increase significantly. This warming study is the first part of a series studies of our project. More climate change impacts on the Santa Ana wind, rainfall, snowfall and snowmelt, cloud and surface hydrology are forthcoming and could be found in www.atmos.ucla.edu/csrl.he ensemble-mean, annual-mean surface air temperature change and its uncertainty from the available CMIP5 GCMs under the RCP8.5 (left) and RCP2.6 (right) emissions scenarios, unit: °C.

Urban Heat Island phenomenon in extreme continental climate (Astana, Kazakhstan)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Konstantinov, Pavel; Akhmetova, Alina

2015-04-01

Urban Heat Island (UHI) phenomenon is well known in scientific literature since first half of the 19th century [1]. By now a wide number of world capitals is described from climatological point of view, especially in mid-latitudes. In beginning of XXI century new studies focus on heat island of tropical cities. However dynamics UHI in extreme continental climates is insufficiently investigated, due to the fact that there isn't large cities in Europe and Northern America within that climate type. In this paper we investigate seasonal and diurnal dynamics UHI intensity for Astana, capital city of Kazakhstan (population larger than 835 000 within the city) including UHI intensity changes on different time scales. Now (since 1998) Astana is the second coldest capital city in the world after Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia [3] For this study we use the UHI investigation technology, described in [2]. According to this paper, we selected three stations: one located into city in high and midrise buildings area (including extensive lowrise and high-energy industrial - LCZ classification) and two others located in rural site (sparsely built or open-set and lightweight lowrise according LCZ classification). Also these stations must be close by distance (less than 100 km) and altitude. Therefore, first for Astana city were obtained numerical evaluations for UHI climate dynamics, UHI dependence of synoptic situations and total UHI climatology on monthly and daily averages. References: 1.Howard, L. (1833) The Climate of London, Deduced from Meteorological Observations. Volume 2, London. 2.Kukanova E.A., Konstantinov P.I. An urban heat islands climatology in Russia and linkages to the climate change In Geophysical Research Abstracts, volume 16 of EGU General Assembly, pages EGU2014-10833-1, Germany, 2014. Germany. 3.www.pogoda.ru.net

Flood risk changes over centuries in Rome: an empirical study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Di Baldassarre, Giuliano; Saccà, Smeralda; Tito Aronica, Giuseppe; Grimaldi, Salvatore; Crisci, Massimiliano

2015-04-01

Over centuries, the development of the historical city of Rome -close to one of the largest Italian rivers, the Tiber- has been intertwined with the magnitude and frequency of flooding events. The ancient Rome mostly developed on the (seven) hills, while the Tiber's floodplain was mainly exploited for agricultural purposes. A few small communities did settle in the riparian areas of the Tiber, but they had a relatively peaceful relationships with the frequent occurrence of flooding events. Nowadays, numerous people live in modern districts in the Tiber's floodplain, unaware of their exposure to potentially catastrophic flooding. The main goal of this research is to explore the dynamics of changing flood risk over the centuries between these two extreme pictures of the ancient and contemporary Rome. To this end, we carried out a socio-hydrological study by exploiting long time series of physical (flooding, river morphology) and social (urbanization, population dynamics) processes together with information about human interactions with the environment (flood defense structures). This empirical analysis showed how human and physical systems have been co-evolving over time, while being abruptly altered by the occurrence of extreme events. For instance, a large flooding event occurred in 1870 and contributed to the constructions of levees, which in turn facilitated the development of new urban areas in the Tiber's floodplain, while changed the societal memory of floods as well as the communities' perception of risk. This research work was also used to test the hypotheses of recent-developed models conceptualizing the interplay between floods and societies and simulating the long-term behavior of coupled human-water systems. The outcomes of this test provided interesting insights about the dynamics of flood risk, which are expected to support a better anticipation of future changes.

Conceptualizing the self organization of cloud cells, cold pools and soil moisture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Henneberg, O.; Härter, J. O. M.

2017-12-01

Convective-type cloud is the cause of extreme, short-duration precipitation, challenging weather forecasting and climate modeling. Such extremes are ultimately tied to the uneven redistribution of water in the course of convective self organization and possibly the interaction between clouds [1]. Over land, moisture is organized through: cloud cells, cold pools, and the land surface. Each of these generally capture and release moisture at different rates, e.g. cold pools form quickly but dissipate slowly. Such distinct timescales have implications for the emergent dynamics.Incorporating such distinct time scales, we here present a conceptual model for the spatio-temporal self organization within the diurnal cycle of convection and describe the possible role of soil moisture memory in serving as a predisposition for extremes.We bolster our findings by high resolution, large eddy simulations: Sensible and latent heat fluxes, which are determined by the soil moisture content, can influence the stability of the atmosphere. The onset of initial precipitation is affected by such heat release, which in turn is modified by previous precipitation. Starting from static heat sources, we quantify how their spatial distribution affects the self organization and thus onset, duration and strength of precipitation events in an idealized model setup. Furthermore, an extended model setup with inhomogeneous, self organized distributions of latent and sensible heat fluxes is used to contrast how emergent soil moisture patterns impact on the selforganization structure of convection. Our findings may have implications for the role of land use changes regarding the development of extreme convective precipitation.Reference[1] Moseley et al. (2016) "Intensification of convective extremes driven by cloud-cloud interaction", Nature Geosc. , 9, 748-752

Influence of changing surface temperature gradients on mid-latitudinal circulation and western hemispheric summer temperature extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kornhuber, Kai; Hoffmann, Peter; Coumou, Dim

2017-04-01

Many recent summers in the Northern hemisphere (NH) mid-latitudes have seen severe heatwaves (2003, 2004, 2009, 2010, 2012, 2015, (Black et al. 2004; Diffenbaugh & Scherer 2013; Russo et al. 2014; Hoy et al. 2016)). During many of those extremes the mid-latitudinal tropospheric circulation was characterized by an amplified, quasi-stationary and hemispheric wave pattern with a dominant influence of wavenumber seven (Coumou et al. 2014; Petoukhov et al. 2016; Kornhuber et al. 2016). Analyzing NH summer reanalysis data we show that the position where these heat extremes occur is not arbitrary. If the amplitude of wave seven is large, the wave gets "locked" in a specific preferred phase position. As a consequence of this phase-locking behavior some regions are more likely to experience extreme weather during high-amplitude events. Meridional wind speeds associated with the preferred phase are particularly strong over longitudes of the western hemisphere (180°W - 40°E) leading to positive temperature anomalies over the US and Western Europe. Using a widely-used blocking-index we demonstrate that longitudes over these regions experience an increased probability of blocking during high amplitude wave seven events. We show that during the above mentioned extreme summers, amplified waves were locked in their preferred phase-position creating the right dynamical background condition for severe heatwaves to occur. Further, regression analyses reveal that a pronounced Ocean - Land temperature contrast (Tdiff) and weak poleward surface temperature gradient (dT/dy) are associated with an amplified wave seven in its preferred phase-position. Our study suggests that the observed positive trend in Tdiff and negative trend in dT/dy favors the occurrence of high-amplitude, quasi-stationary wave seven in its preferred phase position and therefore persistent heatwaves in the US and western Europe.

Extreme disorder in an ultrahigh-affinity protein complex

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Borgia, Alessandro; Borgia, Madeleine B.; Bugge, Katrine; Kissling, Vera M.; Heidarsson, Pétur O.; Fernandes, Catarina B.; Sottini, Andrea; Soranno, Andrea; Buholzer, Karin J.; Nettels, Daniel; Kragelund, Birthe B.; Best, Robert B.; Schuler, Benjamin

2018-03-01

Molecular communication in biology is mediated by protein interactions. According to the current paradigm, the specificity and affinity required for these interactions are encoded in the precise complementarity of binding interfaces. Even proteins that are disordered under physiological conditions or that contain large unstructured regions commonly interact with well-structured binding sites on other biomolecules. Here we demonstrate the existence of an unexpected interaction mechanism: the two intrinsically disordered human proteins histone H1 and its nuclear chaperone prothymosin-α associate in a complex with picomolar affinity, but fully retain their structural disorder, long-range flexibility and highly dynamic character. On the basis of closely integrated experiments and molecular simulations, we show that the interaction can be explained by the large opposite net charge of the two proteins, without requiring defined binding sites or interactions between specific individual residues. Proteome-wide sequence analysis suggests that this interaction mechanism may be abundant in eukaryotes.

Large-amplitude internal waves sustain coral health during thermal stress

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schmidt, Gertraud M.; Wall, Marlene; Taylor, Marc; Jantzen, Carin; Richter, Claudio

2016-09-01

Ocean warming is a major threat for coral reefs causing widespread coral bleaching and mortality. Potential refugia are thus crucial for coral survival. Exposure to large-amplitude internal waves (LAIW) mitigated heat stress and ensured coral survival and recovery during and after an extreme heat anomaly. The physiological status of two common corals, Porites lutea and Pocillopora meandrina, was monitored in host and symbiont traits, in response to LAIW-exposure throughout the unprecedented 2010 heat anomaly in the Andaman Sea. LAIW-exposed corals of both species survived and recovered, while LAIW-sheltered corals suffered partial and total mortality in P. lutea and P. meandrina, respectively. LAIW are ubiquitous in the tropics and potentially generate coral refuge areas. As thermal stress to corals is expected to increase in a warming ocean, the mechanisms linking coral bleaching to ocean dynamics will be crucial to predict coral survival on a warming planet.

Toward a theoretical framework for trustworthy cyber sensing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Shouhuai

2010-04-01

Cyberspace is an indispensable part of the economy and society, but has been "polluted" with many compromised computers that can be abused to launch further attacks against the others. Since it is likely that there always are compromised computers, it is important to be aware of the (dynamic) cyber security-related situation, which is however challenging because cyberspace is an extremely large-scale complex system. Our project aims to investigate a theoretical framework for trustworthy cyber sensing. With the perspective of treating cyberspace as a large-scale complex system, the core question we aim to address is: What would be a competent theoretical (mathematical and algorithmic) framework for designing, analyzing, deploying, managing, and adapting cyber sensor systems so as to provide trustworthy information or input to the higher layer of cyber situation-awareness management, even in the presence of sophisticated malicious attacks against the cyber sensor systems?

Effect of storm events on riverine nitrogen dynamics in a subtropical watershed, southeastern China.

PubMed

Chen, Nengwang; Wu, Jiezhong; Hong, Huasheng

2012-08-01

Rain storms are predicted to increase in the subtropical region due to climate change. However, the effects of storm events on riverine nitrogen (N) dynamics are poorly understood. In this study, the riverine N dynamics and storm effects in a large subtropical river (North Jiulong River, southeastern China) were investigated through continuous sampling of two storm events which occurred in June 2010 and June 2011. The results disclosed a strong linkage between N dynamics and hydrological controls and watershed characteristics. The extreme storm in June 2010 resulted in more fluctuations in N concentrations, loads, and composition, compared with the moderate storm in June 2011. There were contrasting patterns (e.g., the hysteresis effect) between nitrate and ammonium behavior in storm runoff, reflecting their different supply source and transport mechanism. Overall, nitrate supply originated from subsurface runoff and was dominated by within-channel mobilization, while ammonium was mainly from over-land sources and flushed by surface runoff. Extreme storm runoff (2010) caused a four-fold increase in dissolved inorganic N fluxes (DIN), with a greater fraction of ammonium (up to 30% of DIN) compared with the moderate storm and background flow condition (less than 15%). Storm-driven sharp increases of N loads and changes in nutrient stoichiometry (more ammonium) might have been connected with algal blooms in the adjacent estuary and Xiamen Bay. Combined with the background flow measurement of N gradients along the main river and a stream together with anthropogenic N load information, the interactive effect of hydrological and biogeochemical process on riverine N was preliminarily revealed. Current results suggested that storm runoff N was controlled by rainfall, hydrological condition, antecedent soil moisture, spatial variability of land-based N source, and damming. These findings could be used as a reference for future water quality monitoring programs and the development of a pollution mitigation strategy. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A Coarse-Grained Elastic Network Atom Contact Model and Its Use in the Simulation of Protein Dynamics and the Prediction of the Effect of Mutations

PubMed Central

Frappier, Vincent; Najmanovich, Rafael J.

2014-01-01

Normal mode analysis (NMA) methods are widely used to study dynamic aspects of protein structures. Two critical components of NMA methods are coarse-graining in the level of simplification used to represent protein structures and the choice of potential energy functional form. There is a trade-off between speed and accuracy in different choices. In one extreme one finds accurate but slow molecular-dynamics based methods with all-atom representations and detailed atom potentials. On the other extreme, fast elastic network model (ENM) methods with Cα−only representations and simplified potentials that based on geometry alone, thus oblivious to protein sequence. Here we present ENCoM, an Elastic Network Contact Model that employs a potential energy function that includes a pairwise atom-type non-bonded interaction term and thus makes it possible to consider the effect of the specific nature of amino-acids on dynamics within the context of NMA. ENCoM is as fast as existing ENM methods and outperforms such methods in the generation of conformational ensembles. Here we introduce a new application for NMA methods with the use of ENCoM in the prediction of the effect of mutations on protein stability. While existing methods are based on machine learning or enthalpic considerations, the use of ENCoM, based on vibrational normal modes, is based on entropic considerations. This represents a novel area of application for NMA methods and a novel approach for the prediction of the effect of mutations. We compare ENCoM to a large number of methods in terms of accuracy and self-consistency. We show that the accuracy of ENCoM is comparable to that of the best existing methods. We show that existing methods are biased towards the prediction of destabilizing mutations and that ENCoM is less biased at predicting stabilizing mutations. PMID:24762569

Understanding the Role of Air-Sea Interaction on Extreme Rainfall in Aquaplanet and Earth-like CESM2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Benedict, J. J.; Clement, A. C.; Medeiros, B.

2017-12-01

Extreme precipitation events are associated with anomalous, latitudinally dependent dynamical and convective weather systems. For example, plumes of excessive poleward water vapor transport and topographical effects drive extreme precipitation events in the midlatitudes, while intense tropical precipitation is associated with organized convective systems. In both cases, air-sea fluxes have the potential to contribute significantly to the moisture budget of these storms, but the roles of surface fluxes and upper-ocean processes and their impact on precipitation extremes have yet to be explored in sufficient detail. To examine such mechanisms, we implement a climate model hierarchy that encompasses a spectrum of ocean models, from prescribed-SST to fully dynamic, as well as both aquaplanet and Earth-like lower boundary types within version 2 of the Community Earth System Model (CESM2). Using the CESM2 hierarchy and comparing to observations, we identify key moisture processes and related air-sea interactions that drive extreme precipitation events across different latitudes in Earth-like models and then generalize the analyses in aquaplanet configurations to highlight the most salient features. The analyses are applied to both present-day and global warming conditions to investigate how these fundamental mechanisms might change extreme precipitation events in the future climate.

Weak, strong, and coherent regimes of Fröhlich condensation and their applications to terahertz medicine and quantum consciousness.

PubMed

Reimers, Jeffrey R; McKemmish, Laura K; McKenzie, Ross H; Mark, Alan E; Hush, Noel S

2009-03-17

In 1968, Fröhlich showed that a driven set of oscillators can condense with nearly all of the supplied energy activating the vibrational mode of lowest frequency. This is a remarkable property usually compared with Bose-Einstein condensation, superconductivity, lasing, and other unique phenomena involving macroscopic quantum coherence. However, despite intense research, no unambiguous example has been documented. We determine the most likely experimental signatures of Fröhlich condensation and show that they are significant features remote from the extraordinary properties normally envisaged. Fröhlich condensates are classified into 3 types: weak condensates in which profound effects on chemical kinetics are possible, strong condensates in which an extremely large amount of energy is channeled into 1 vibrational mode, and coherent condensates in which this energy is placed in a single quantum state. Coherent condensates are shown to involve extremely large energies, to not be produced by the Wu-Austin dynamical Hamiltonian that provides the simplest depiction of Fröhlich condensates formed using mechanically supplied energy, and to be extremely fragile. They are inaccessible in a biological environment. Hence the Penrose-Hameroff orchestrated objective-reduction model and related theories for cognitive function that embody coherent Fröhlich condensation as an essential element are untenable. Weak condensates, however, may have profound effects on chemical and enzyme kinetics, and may be produced from biochemical energy or from radio frequency, microwave, or terahertz radiation. Pokorný's observed 8.085-MHz microtubulin resonance is identified as a possible candidate, with microwave reactors (green chemistry) and terahertz medicine appearing as other feasible sources.

Weak, strong, and coherent regimes of Fröhlich condensation and their applications to terahertz medicine and quantum consciousness

PubMed Central

Reimers, Jeffrey R.; McKemmish, Laura K.; McKenzie, Ross H.; Mark, Alan E.; Hush, Noel S.

2009-01-01

In 1968, Fröhlich showed that a driven set of oscillators can condense with nearly all of the supplied energy activating the vibrational mode of lowest frequency. This is a remarkable property usually compared with Bose–Einstein condensation, superconductivity, lasing, and other unique phenomena involving macroscopic quantum coherence. However, despite intense research, no unambiguous example has been documented. We determine the most likely experimental signatures of Fröhlich condensation and show that they are significant features remote from the extraordinary properties normally envisaged. Fröhlich condensates are classified into 3 types: weak condensates in which profound effects on chemical kinetics are possible, strong condensates in which an extremely large amount of energy is channeled into 1 vibrational mode, and coherent condensates in which this energy is placed in a single quantum state. Coherent condensates are shown to involve extremely large energies, to not be produced by the Wu–Austin dynamical Hamiltonian that provides the simplest depiction of Fröhlich condensates formed using mechanically supplied energy, and to be extremely fragile. They are inaccessible in a biological environment. Hence the Penrose–Hameroff orchestrated objective-reduction model and related theories for cognitive function that embody coherent Fröhlich condensation as an essential element are untenable. Weak condensates, however, may have profound effects on chemical and enzyme kinetics, and may be produced from biochemical energy or from radio frequency, microwave, or terahertz radiation. Pokorný's observed 8.085-MHz microtubulin resonance is identified as a possible candidate, with microwave reactors (green chemistry) and terahertz medicine appearing as other feasible sources. PMID:19251667

Identification of the atmospheric river drivers key on local flood generating mechanism and its sensitivity under the climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lorente-Plazas, Raquel; Mauger, Guillaume; Salathé, Eric; Mitchell, Todd P.

2017-04-01

Flooding is one of the natural hazard that causes the significant economic, ecosystem and human losses every year. Large percentage of floodings in the western of the US caused by heavy precipitation events are associated to atmospheric rivers (ARs). With the warmer climate is expected an increase of saturated water pressure which could increase the intensity and frequency of the ARs. In this work we attend to address two questions: 1) what are the large-scale drivers that promotes differences in ARs promoting heavy precipitation at different locations and 2) how climate change will influence on ARs and extreme precipitation. The methods applied in our analysis consist on a dynamical downscaling using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The target region is the western coastline U.S. on a domain with 12-km grid spacing. Regional climate simulations (RCM) encompass a historical period (1970-2010) and future projections (2020-2060) using NNRP and ECHAM as initial and boundary conditions. Clustering methods are applied to the RCM to identify regions with similar precipitation variability. At each region, the extreme events of precipitation according to 99 percentile are identified and associated to integrated vapor transport (ITV). Results show how heaviest precipitation in each region is associated to different AR patterns. When an AR impacts coastline, the direction and intensity of the IVT determine the areas affected by heavy precipitation. Coastal mountains play a key role intensifying the precipitation in the coastline and avoiding the inland penetration of the IVT. The shape of the atmospheric rivers is related to differences in 500 hPa geopotential between the mean and the extreme precipitation. Areas with heaviest precipitation are located in the interface of Z500 differences.

High-fidelity numerical modeling of the Upper Mississippi River under extreme flood condition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khosronejad, Ali; Le, Trung; DeWall, Petra; Bartelt, Nicole; Woldeamlak, Solomon; Yang, Xiaolei; Sotiropoulos, Fotis

2016-12-01

We present data-driven numerical simulations of extreme flooding in a large-scale river coupling coherent-structure resolving hydrodynamics with bed morphodynamics under live-bed conditions. The study area is a ∼ 3.2 km long and ∼ 300 m wide reach of the Upper Mississippi River, near Minneapolis MN, which contains several natural islands and man-made hydraulic structures. We employ the large-eddy simulation (LES) and bed-morphodynamic modules of the Virtual Flow Simulator (VFS-Rivers) model, a recently developed in-house code, to investigate the flow and bed evolution of the river during a 100-year flood event. The coupling of the two modules is carried out via a fluid-structure interaction approach using a nested domain approach to enhance the resolution of bridge scour predictions. We integrate data from airborne Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR), sub-aqueous sonar apparatus on-board a boat and in-situ laser scanners to construct a digital elevation model of the river bathymetry and surrounding flood plain, including islands and bridge piers. A field campaign under base-flow condition is also carried out to collect mean flow measurements via Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler (ADCP) to validate the hydrodynamic module of the VFS-Rivers model. Our simulation results for the bed evolution of the river under the 100-year flood reveal complex sediment transport dynamics near the bridge piers consisting of both scour and refilling events due to the continuous passage of sand dunes. We find that the scour depth near the bridge piers can reach to a maximum of ∼ 9 m. The data-driven simulation strategy we present in this work exemplifies a practical simulation-based-engineering-approach to investigate the resilience of infrastructures to extreme flood events in intricate field-scale riverine systems.

Extreme hydronephrosis due to uretropelvic junction obstruction in infant (case report).

PubMed

Krzemień, Grażyna; Szmigielska, Agnieszka; Bombiński, Przemysław; Barczuk, Marzena; Biejat, Agnieszka; Warchoł, Stanisław; Dudek-Warchoł, Teresa

2016-01-01

Hydronephrosis is the one of the most common congenital abnormalities of urinary tract. The left kidney is more commonly affected than the right side and is more common in males. To determine the role of ultrasonography, renal dynamic scintigraphy and lowerdose computed tomography urography in preoperative diagnostic workup of infant with extreme hydronephrosis. We presented the boy with antenatally diagnosed hydronephrosis. In serial, postnatal ultrasonography, renal scintigraphy and computed tomography urography we observed slightly declining function in the dilated kidney and increasing pelvic dilatation. Pyeloplasty was performed at the age of four months with good result. Results of ultrasonography and renal dynamic scintigraphy in child with extreme hydronephrosis can be difficult to asses, therefore before the surgical procedure a lower-dose computed tomography urography should be performed.

Dynamically-downscaled projections of changes in temperature extremes over China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Junhong; Huang, Guohe; Wang, Xiuquan; Li, Yongping; Lin, Qianguo

2018-02-01

In this study, likely changes in extreme temperatures (including 16 indices) over China in response to global warming throughout the twenty-first century are investigated through the PRECIS regional climate modeling system. The PRECIS experiment is conducted at a spatial resolution of 25 km and is driven by a perturbed-physics ensemble to reflect spatial variations and model uncertainties. Simulations of present climate (1961-1990) are compared with observations to validate the model performance in reproducing historical climate over China. Results indicate that the PRECIS demonstrates reasonable skills in reproducing the spatial patterns of observed extreme temperatures over the most regions of China, especially in the east. Nevertheless, the PRECIS shows a relatively poor performance in simulating the spatial patterns of extreme temperatures in the western mountainous regions, where its driving GCM exhibits more uncertainties due to lack of insufficient observations and results in more errors in climate downscaling. Future spatio-temporal changes of extreme temperature indices are then analyzed for three successive periods (i.e., 2020s, 2050s and 2080s). The projected changes in extreme temperatures by PRECIS are well consistent with the results of the major global climate models in both spatial and temporal patterns. Furthermore, the PRECIS demonstrates a distinct superiority in providing more detailed spatial information of extreme indices. In general, all extreme indices show similar changes in spatial pattern: large changes are projected in the north while small changes are projected in the south. In contrast, the temporal patterns for all indices vary differently over future periods: the warm indices, such as SU, TR, WSDI, TX90p, TN90p and GSL are likely to increase, while the cold indices, such as ID, FD, CSDI, TX10p and TN10p, are likely to decrease with time in response to global warming. Nevertheless, the magnitudes of changes in all indices tend to decrease gradually with time, indicating the projected warming will begin to slow down in the late of this century. In addition, the projected range of changes for all indices would become larger with time, suggesting more uncertainties would be involved in long-term climate projections.

Changes in extremes due to half a degree warming in observations and models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fischer, E. M.; Schleussner, C. F.; Pfleiderer, P.

2017-12-01

Assessing the climate impacts of half-a-degree warming increments is high on the post-Paris science agenda. Discriminating those effects is particularly challenging for climate extremes such as heavy precipitation and heat extremes for which model uncertainties are generally large, and for which internal variability is so important that it can easily offset or strongly amplify the forced local changes induced by half a degree warming. Despite these challenges we provide evidence for large-scale changes in the intensity and frequency of climate extremes due to half a degree warming. We first assess the difference in extreme climate indicators in observational data for the 1960s and 1970s versus the recent past, two periods differ by half a degree. We identify distinct differences for the global and continental-scale occurrence of heat and heavy precipitation extremes. We show that those observed changes in heavy precipitation and heat extremes broadly agree with simulated historical differences and are informative for the projected differences between 1.5 and 2°C warming despite different radiative forcings. We therefore argue that evidence from the observational record can inform the debate about discernible climate impacts in the light of model uncertainty by providing a conservative estimate of the implications of 0.5°C warming. A limitation of using the observational record arises from potential non-linearities in the response of climate extremes to a certain level of warming. We test for potential non-linearities in the response of heat and heavy precipitation extremes in a large ensemble of transient climate simulations. We further quantify differences between a time-window approach in a coupled model large ensemble vs. time-slice experiments using prescribed SST experiments performed in the context of the HAPPI-MIP project. Thereby we provide different lines of evidence that half a degree warming leads to substantial changes in the expected occurrence of heat and heavy precipitation extremes.

Role of absorbing aerosols on hot extremes in India in a GCM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mondal, A.; Sah, N.; Venkataraman, C.; Patil, N.

2017-12-01

Temperature extremes and heat waves in North-Central India during the summer months of March through June are known for causing significant impact in terms of human health, productivity and mortality. While greenhouse gas-induced global warming is generally believed to intensify the magnitude and frequency of such extremes, aerosols are usually associated with an overall cooling, by virtue of their dominant radiation scattering nature, in most world regions. Recently, large-scale atmospheric conditions leading to heat wave and extreme temperature conditions have been analysed for the North-Central Indian region. However, the role of absorbing aerosols, including black carbon and dust, is still not well understood, in mediating hot extremes in the region. In this study, we use 30-year simulations from a chemistry-coupled atmosphere-only General Circulation Model (GCM), ECHAM6-HAM2, forced with evolving aerosol emissions in an interactive aerosol module, along with observed sea surface temperatures, to examine large-scale and mesoscale conditions during hot extremes in India. The model is first validated with observed gridded temperature and reanalysis data, and is found to represent observed variations in temperature in the North-Central region and concurrent large-scale atmospheric conditions during high temperature extremes realistically. During these extreme events, changes in near surface properties include a reduction in single scattering albedo and enhancement in short-wave solar heating rate, compared to climatological conditions. This is accompanied by positive anomalies of black carbon and dust aerosol optical depths. We conclude that the large-scale atmospheric conditions such as the presence of anticyclones and clear skies, conducive to heat waves and high temperature extremes, are exacerbated by absorbing aerosols in North-Central India. Future air quality regulations are expected to reduce sulfate particles and their masking of GHG warming. It is concurrently important to mitigate emissions of warming black carbon particles, to manage future climate change-induced hot extremes.

Can Regional Climate Models be used in the assessment of vulnerability and risk caused by extreme events?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nunes, Ana

2015-04-01

Extreme meteorological events played an important role in catastrophic occurrences observed in the past over densely populated areas in Brazil. This motived the proposal of an integrated system for analysis and assessment of vulnerability and risk caused by extreme events in urban areas that are particularly affected by complex topography. That requires a multi-scale approach, which is centered on a regional modeling system, consisting of a regional (spectral) climate model coupled to a land-surface scheme. This regional modeling system employs a boundary forcing method based on scale-selective bias correction and assimilation of satellite-based precipitation estimates. Scale-selective bias correction is a method similar to the spectral nudging technique for dynamical downscaling that allows internal modes to develop in agreement with the large-scale features, while the precipitation assimilation procedure improves the modeled deep-convection and drives the land-surface scheme variables. Here, the scale-selective bias correction acts only on the rotational part of the wind field, letting the precipitation assimilation procedure to correct moisture convergence, in order to reconstruct South American current climate within the South American Hydroclimate Reconstruction Project. The hydroclimate reconstruction outputs might eventually produce improved initial conditions for high-resolution numerical integrations in metropolitan regions, generating more reliable short-term precipitation predictions, and providing accurate hidrometeorological variables to higher resolution geomorphological models. Better representation of deep-convection from intermediate scales is relevant when the resolution of the regional modeling system is refined by any method to meet the scale of geomorphological dynamic models of stability and mass movement, assisting in the assessment of risk areas and estimation of terrain stability over complex topography. The reconstruction of past extreme events also helps the development of a system for decision-making, regarding natural and social disasters, and reducing impacts. Numerical experiments using this regional modeling system successfully modeled severe weather events in Brazil. Comparisons with the NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis outputs were made at resolutions of about 40- and 25-km of the regional climate model.

Manipulating the motion of large molecules: Information from the molecular frame

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Küpper, Jochen

2011-05-01

Large molecules have complex potential-energy surfaces with many local minima. They exhibit multiple stereoisomers, even at the low temperatures (~1 K) in a molecular beam, with rich intra- and intermolecular dynamics. Over the last years, we have developed methods to manipulate the motion of large, complex molecules and to select their quantum states. We have exploited this state-selectivity, for example, to spatially separate individual structural isomers of complex molecules and to demonstrate unprecedented degrees of laser alignment and mixed-field orientation of these molecules. Such clean, well-defined samples strongly benefit, or simply allow, novel experiments on the dynamics of complex molecules, for instance, femtosecond pump-probe measurements, X-ray or electron diffraction of molecular ensembles (including diffraction-from-within experiments), or tomographic reconstructions of molecular orbitals. These samples could also be very advantageous for metrology applications, such as, for example, matter-wave interferometry or the search for electroweak interactions in chiral molecules. Moreover, they provide an extreme level of control for stereo-dynamically controlled reaction dynamics. We have recently exploited these state-selected and oriented samples to measure photoelectron angular distributions in the molecular frame (MFPADs) from non-resonant femtosecond-laser photoionization and using the X-ray Free-Electron-Laser LCLS. We have also investigated X-ray diffraction imaging and, using ion momentum imaging, the induced radiation damage of these samples using the LCLS. This work was carried out within a collaboration for which J. Küpper, H. Chapman, and D. Rolles are spokespersons. The collaboration consists of CFEL (DESY, MPG, University Hamburg), Fritz-Haber-Institute Berlin, MPI Nuclear Physics Heidelberg, MPG Semi-conductor Lab, Aarhus University, FOM AMOLF Amsterdam, Lund University, MPI Medical Research Heidelberg, TU Berlin, Max Born Institute Berlin, and SLAC Menlo Park, CA, USA. The experiments were carried out using CAMP (designed and built by the MPG-ASG at CFEL) at the LCLS (operated by Stanford University on behalf of the US DOE).

Towards developing a compact model for magnetization switching in straintronics magnetic random access memory devices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barangi, Mahmood; Erementchouk, Mikhail; Mazumder, Pinaki

2016-08-01

Strain-mediated magnetization switching in a magnetic tunneling junction (MTJ) by exploiting a combination of piezoelectricity and magnetostriction has been proposed as an energy efficient alternative to spin transfer torque (STT) and field induced magnetization switching methods in MTJ-based magnetic random access memories (MRAM). Theoretical studies have shown the inherent advantages of strain-assisted switching, and the dynamic response of the magnetization has been modeled using the Landau-Lifshitz-Gilbert (LLG) equation. However, an attempt to use LLG for simulating dynamics of individual elements in large-scale simulations of multi-megabyte straintronics MRAM leads to extremely time-consuming calculations. Hence, a compact analytical solution, predicting the flipping delay of the magnetization vector in the nanomagnet under stress, combined with a liberal approximation of the LLG dynamics in the straintronics MTJ, can lead to a simplified model of the device suited for fast large-scale simulations of multi-megabyte straintronics MRAMs. In this work, a tensor-based approach is developed to study the dynamic behavior of the stressed nanomagnet. First, using the developed method, the effect of stress on the switching behavior of the magnetization is investigated to realize the margins between the underdamped and overdamped regimes. The latter helps the designer realize the oscillatory behavior of the magnetization when settling along the minor axis, and the dependency of oscillations on the stress level and the damping factor. Next, a theoretical model to predict the flipping delay of the magnetization vector is developed and tested against LLG-based numerical simulations to confirm the accuracy of findings. Lastly, the obtained delay is incorporated into the approximate solutions of the LLG dynamics, in order to create a compact model to liberally and quickly simulate the magnetization dynamics of the MTJ under stress. Using the developed delay equation, the efficiency of the straintronics switching over the STT method is highlighted by analytically investigating the energy-delay trade-off of both methodologies.

Towards developing a compact model for magnetization switching in straintronics magnetic random access memory devices

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Barangi, Mahmood, E-mail: barangi@umich.edu; Erementchouk, Mikhail; Mazumder, Pinaki

Strain-mediated magnetization switching in a magnetic tunneling junction (MTJ) by exploiting a combination of piezoelectricity and magnetostriction has been proposed as an energy efficient alternative to spin transfer torque (STT) and field induced magnetization switching methods in MTJ-based magnetic random access memories (MRAM). Theoretical studies have shown the inherent advantages of strain-assisted switching, and the dynamic response of the magnetization has been modeled using the Landau-Lifshitz-Gilbert (LLG) equation. However, an attempt to use LLG for simulating dynamics of individual elements in large-scale simulations of multi-megabyte straintronics MRAM leads to extremely time-consuming calculations. Hence, a compact analytical solution, predicting the flippingmore » delay of the magnetization vector in the nanomagnet under stress, combined with a liberal approximation of the LLG dynamics in the straintronics MTJ, can lead to a simplified model of the device suited for fast large-scale simulations of multi-megabyte straintronics MRAMs. In this work, a tensor-based approach is developed to study the dynamic behavior of the stressed nanomagnet. First, using the developed method, the effect of stress on the switching behavior of the magnetization is investigated to realize the margins between the underdamped and overdamped regimes. The latter helps the designer realize the oscillatory behavior of the magnetization when settling along the minor axis, and the dependency of oscillations on the stress level and the damping factor. Next, a theoretical model to predict the flipping delay of the magnetization vector is developed and tested against LLG-based numerical simulations to confirm the accuracy of findings. Lastly, the obtained delay is incorporated into the approximate solutions of the LLG dynamics, in order to create a compact model to liberally and quickly simulate the magnetization dynamics of the MTJ under stress. Using the developed delay equation, the efficiency of the straintronics switching over the STT method is highlighted by analytically investigating the energy-delay trade-off of both methodologies.« less

Incorporating human-water dynamics in a hyper-resolution land surface model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vergopolan, N.; Chaney, N.; Wanders, N.; Sheffield, J.; Wood, E. F.

2017-12-01

The increasing demand for water, energy, and food is leading to unsustainable groundwater and surface water exploitation. As a result, the human interactions with the environment, through alteration of land and water resources dynamics, need to be reflected in hydrologic and land surface models (LSMs). Advancements in representing human-water dynamics still leave challenges related to the lack of water use data, water allocation algorithms, and modeling scales. This leads to an over-simplistic representation of human water use in large-scale models; this is in turn leads to an inability to capture extreme events signatures and to provide reliable information at stakeholder-level spatial scales. The emergence of hyper-resolution models allows one to address these challenges by simulating the hydrological processes and interactions with the human impacts at field scales. We integrated human-water dynamics into HydroBlocks - a hyper-resolution, field-scale resolving LSM. HydroBlocks explicitly solves the field-scale spatial heterogeneity of land surface processes through interacting hydrologic response units (HRUs); and its HRU-based model parallelization allows computationally efficient long-term simulations as well as ensemble predictions. The implemented human-water dynamics include groundwater and surface water abstraction to meet agricultural, domestic and industrial water demands. Furthermore, a supply-demand water allocation scheme based on relative costs helps to determine sectoral water use requirements and tradeoffs. A set of HydroBlocks simulations over the Midwest United States (daily, at 30-m spatial resolution for 30 years) are used to quantify the irrigation impacts on water availability. The model captures large reductions in total soil moisture and water table levels, as well as spatiotemporal changes in evapotranspiration and runoff peaks, with their intensity related to the adopted water management strategy. By incorporating human-water dynamics in a hyper-resolution LSM this work allows for progress on hydrological monitoring and predictions, as well as drought preparedness and water impact assessments at relevant decision-making scales.

A dynamic method for magnetic torque measurement

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lin, C. E.; Jou, H. L.

1994-01-01

In a magnetic suspension system, accurate force measurement will result in better control performance in the test section, especially when a wider range of operation is required. Although many useful methods were developed to obtain the desired model, however, significant error is inevitable since the magnetic field distribution of the large-gap magnetic suspension system is extremely nonlinear. This paper proposed an easy approach to measure the magnetic torque of a magnetic suspension system using an angular photo encoder. Through the measurement of the velocity change data, the magnetic torque is converted. The proposed idea is described and implemented to obtain the desired data. It is useful to the calculation of a magnetic force in the magnetic suspension system.

KSC-08pd0645

NASA Image and Video Library

2008-03-05

KENNEDY SPACE CENTER, FLA. -- General Dynamics technicians in the Astrotech payload processing facility remove the protective cover over NASA's Gamma-Ray Large Area Space Telescope, or GLAST. The space telescope will be moved to a work stand in the facility for a complete checkout of the scientific instruments aboard. The telescope will launch aboard a Delta II rocket May 16 from Launch Pad 17-B on Cape Canaveral Air Force Station. A powerful space observatory, the GLAST will explore the most extreme environments in the universe, and answer questions about supermassive black hole systems, pulsars and the origin of cosmic rays. It also will study the mystery of powerful explosions known as gamma-ray bursts. Photo credit: NASA/Kim Shiflett

KSC-08pd0654

NASA Image and Video Library

2008-03-05

KENNEDY SPACE CENTER, FLA. -- In the Astrotech payload processing facility, General Dynamics technicians secure NASA's Gamma-Ray Large Area Space Telescope, or GLAST, on a work stand as the overhead crane is lifted away. GLAST will undergo a complete checkout of the scientific instruments aboard. The telescope will launch aboard a Delta II rocket May 16 from Launch Pad 17-B on Cape Canaveral Air Force Station. A powerful space observatory, the GLAST will explore the most extreme environments in the universe, and answer questions about supermassive black hole systems, pulsars and the origin of cosmic rays. It also will study the mystery of powerful explosions known as gamma-ray bursts. Photo credit: NASA/Kim Shiflett

KSC-08pd0649

NASA Image and Video Library

2008-03-05

KENNEDY SPACE CENTER, FLA. -- In the Astrotech payload processing facility, General Dynamics technicians keep watch as NASA's Gamma-Ray Large Area Space Telescope, or GLAST, is lifted and begins moving toward the work stand in the foreground. There GLAST will undergo a complete checkout of the scientific instruments aboard. The telescope will launch aboard a Delta II rocket May 16 from Launch Pad 17-B on Cape Canaveral Air Force Station. A powerful space observatory, the GLAST will explore the most extreme environments in the universe, and answer questions about supermassive black hole systems, pulsars and the origin of cosmic rays. It also will study the mystery of powerful explosions known as gamma-ray bursts. Photo credit: NASA/Kim Shiflett

Complexity Science Framework for Big Data: Data-enabled Science

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Surjalal Sharma, A.

2016-07-01

The ubiquity of Big Data has stimulated the development of analytic tools to harness the potential for timely and improved modeling and prediction. While much of the data is available near-real time and can be compiled to specify the current state of the system, the capability to make predictions is lacking. The main reason is the basic nature of Big Data - the traditional techniques are challenged in their ability to cope with its velocity, volume and variability to make optimum use of the available information. Another aspect is the absence of an effective description of the time evolution or dynamics of the specific system, derived from the data. Once such dynamical models are developed predictions can be made readily. This approach of " letting the data speak for itself " is distinct from the first-principles models based on the understanding of the fundamentals of the system. The predictive capability comes from the data-derived dynamical model, with no modeling assumptions, and can address many issues such as causality and correlation. This approach provides a framework for addressing the challenges in Big Data, especially in the case of spatio-temporal time series data. The reconstruction of dynamics from time series data is based on recognition that in most systems the different variables or degrees of freedom are coupled nonlinearly and in the presence of dissipation the state space contracts, effectively reducing the number of variables, thus enabling a description of its dynamical evolution and consequently prediction of future states. The predictability is analysed from the intrinsic characteristics of the distribution functions, such as Hurst exponents and Hill estimators. In most systems the distributions have heavy tails, which imply higher likelihood for extreme events. The characterization of the probabilities of extreme events are critical in many cases e. g., natural hazards, for proper assessment of risk and mitigation strategies. Big Data with such new analytics can yield improved risk estimates. The challenges of scientific inference from complex and massive data are addressed by data-enabled science, also referred as the Fourth paradigm, after experiment, theory and simulation. An example of this approach is the modelling of dynamical and statistical features of natural systems, without assumptions of specific processes. An effective use of the techniques of complexity science to yield the inherent features of a system from extensive data from observations and large scale numerical simulations is evident in the case of Earth's magnetosphere. The multiscale nature of the magnetosphere makes the numerical simulations a challenge, requiring very large computing resources. The reconstruction of dynamics from observational data can however yield the inherent characteristics using typical desktop computers. Such studies for other systems are in progress. Data-enabled approach using the framework of complexity science provides new techniques for modelling and prediction using Big Data. The studies of Earth's magnetosphere, provide an example of the potential for a new approach to the development of quantitative analytic tools.

Direct and simultaneous observation of ultrafast electron and hole dynamics in germanium

DOE PAGES

Zurch, Michael; Chang, Hung -Tzu; Borja, Lauren J.; ...

2017-06-01

Understanding excited carrier dynamics in semiconductors is crucial for the development of photovoltaics and efficient photonic devices. However, overlapping spectral features in optical pump-probe spectroscopy often render assignments of separate electron and hole carrier dynamics ambiguous. Here, ultrafast electron and hole dynamics in germanium nanocrystalline thin films are directly and simultaneously observed by ultrafast transient absorption spectroscopy in the extreme ultraviolet at the germanium M 4,5 edge. We decompose the spectra into contributions of electronic state blocking and photo-induced band shifts at a carrier density of 8 × 10 20 cm –3. Separate electron and hole relaxation times are observedmore » as a function of hot carrier energies. A first-order electron and hole decay of ~1 ps suggests a Shockley–Read–Hall recombination mechanism. Furthermore, the simultaneous observation of electrons and holes with extreme ultraviolet transient absorption spectroscopy paves the way for investigating few- to sub-femtosecond dynamics of both holes and electrons in complex semiconductor materials and across junctions.« less

Direct and simultaneous observation of ultrafast electron and hole dynamics in germanium

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zurch, Michael; Chang, Hung -Tzu; Borja, Lauren J.

Understanding excited carrier dynamics in semiconductors is crucial for the development of photovoltaics and efficient photonic devices. However, overlapping spectral features in optical pump-probe spectroscopy often render assignments of separate electron and hole carrier dynamics ambiguous. Here, ultrafast electron and hole dynamics in germanium nanocrystalline thin films are directly and simultaneously observed by ultrafast transient absorption spectroscopy in the extreme ultraviolet at the germanium M 4,5 edge. We decompose the spectra into contributions of electronic state blocking and photo-induced band shifts at a carrier density of 8 × 10 20 cm –3. Separate electron and hole relaxation times are observedmore » as a function of hot carrier energies. A first-order electron and hole decay of ~1 ps suggests a Shockley–Read–Hall recombination mechanism. Furthermore, the simultaneous observation of electrons and holes with extreme ultraviolet transient absorption spectroscopy paves the way for investigating few- to sub-femtosecond dynamics of both holes and electrons in complex semiconductor materials and across junctions.« less

Direct and simultaneous observation of ultrafast electron and hole dynamics in germanium.

PubMed

Zürch, Michael; Chang, Hung-Tzu; Borja, Lauren J; Kraus, Peter M; Cushing, Scott K; Gandman, Andrey; Kaplan, Christopher J; Oh, Myoung Hwan; Prell, James S; Prendergast, David; Pemmaraju, Chaitanya D; Neumark, Daniel M; Leone, Stephen R

2017-06-01

Understanding excited carrier dynamics in semiconductors is crucial for the development of photovoltaics and efficient photonic devices. However, overlapping spectral features in optical pump-probe spectroscopy often render assignments of separate electron and hole carrier dynamics ambiguous. Here, ultrafast electron and hole dynamics in germanium nanocrystalline thin films are directly and simultaneously observed by ultrafast transient absorption spectroscopy in the extreme ultraviolet at the germanium M 4,5 edge. We decompose the spectra into contributions of electronic state blocking and photo-induced band shifts at a carrier density of 8 × 10 20  cm -3 . Separate electron and hole relaxation times are observed as a function of hot carrier energies. A first-order electron and hole decay of ∼1 ps suggests a Shockley-Read-Hall recombination mechanism. The simultaneous observation of electrons and holes with extreme ultraviolet transient absorption spectroscopy paves the way for investigating few- to sub-femtosecond dynamics of both holes and electrons in complex semiconductor materials and across junctions.

Direct and simultaneous observation of ultrafast electron and hole dynamics in germanium

PubMed Central

Zürch, Michael; Chang, Hung-Tzu; Borja, Lauren J.; Kraus, Peter M.; Cushing, Scott K.; Gandman, Andrey; Kaplan, Christopher J.; Oh, Myoung Hwan; Prell, James S.; Prendergast, David; Pemmaraju, Chaitanya D.; Neumark, Daniel M.; Leone, Stephen R.

2017-01-01

Understanding excited carrier dynamics in semiconductors is crucial for the development of photovoltaics and efficient photonic devices. However, overlapping spectral features in optical pump-probe spectroscopy often render assignments of separate electron and hole carrier dynamics ambiguous. Here, ultrafast electron and hole dynamics in germanium nanocrystalline thin films are directly and simultaneously observed by ultrafast transient absorption spectroscopy in the extreme ultraviolet at the germanium M4,5 edge. We decompose the spectra into contributions of electronic state blocking and photo-induced band shifts at a carrier density of 8 × 1020 cm−3. Separate electron and hole relaxation times are observed as a function of hot carrier energies. A first-order electron and hole decay of ∼1 ps suggests a Shockley–Read–Hall recombination mechanism. The simultaneous observation of electrons and holes with extreme ultraviolet transient absorption spectroscopy paves the way for investigating few- to sub-femtosecond dynamics of both holes and electrons in complex semiconductor materials and across junctions. PMID:28569752

Lux in obscuro II: photon orbits of extremal AdS black holes revisited

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, Zi-Yu; Ong, Yen Chin; Wang, Bin

2017-12-01

A large class of spherically symmetric static extremal black hole spacetimes possesses a stable null photon sphere on their horizons. For the extremal Kerr-Newman family, the photon sphere only really coincides with the horizon in the sense clarified by Doran. The condition under which a photon orbit is stable on an asymptotically flat extremal Kerr-Newman black hole horizon has recently been clarified; it is found that a sufficiently large angular momentum destabilizes the photon orbit, whereas an electrical charge tends to stabilize it. We investigated the effect of a negative cosmological constant on this observation, and found the same behavior in the case of extremal asymptotically Kerr-Newman-AdS black holes in (3+1) -dimensions. In (2+1) -dimensions, in the presence of an electrical charge, the angular momentum never becomes large enough to destabilize the photon orbit. We comment on the instabilities of black hole spacetimes with a stable photon orbit.

The balance and harmony of control power for a combat aircraft in tactical maneuvering

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bocvarov, Spiro; Cliff, Eugene M.; Lutze, Frederick H.

1992-01-01

An analysis is presented for a family of regular extremal attitude-maneuvers for the High Angle-of-Attack Research Vehicle that has thrust-vectoring capability. Different levels of dynamic coupling are identified in the combat aircraft attitude model, and the characteristic extremal-family motion is explained. It is shown why the extremal-family trajectories develop small sideslip-angles, a highly desirable feature from a practical viewpoint.

Mathematical physics: Glitches in time [Glitches in time: Capturing the underlying dynamics of data with flawed timing

DOE PAGES

Haley, Charlotte A. L.

2016-04-27

Here, a mathematical technique has now been developed that reveals the underlying dynamics of time-dependent data collected with extreme temporal uncertainty, without using additional, costly instrumentation.

Fast-track extreme event attribution: General methods and techniques to determine the dynamic contribution to an event.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Otto, F. E. L.; Haustein, K.; Uhe, P.; Massey, N.; Rimi, R.; Allen, M. R.; Cullen, H. M.

2016-12-01

Extreme weather event attribution has become an accepted part of the atmospheric sciences with numerous methods having been put forward over the last decade. We have recently established a new framework which allows for event attribution in quasi-real-time. Here we present the methodology with which we can assess the fraction of attributable risk (FAR) of a severe weather event due to an external driver (Haustein et al. 2016). The method builds on a large ensemble of atmosphere-only GCM simulations forced by seasonal forecast SSTs (actual conditions) that are contrasted with ensembles forced by counterfactual SSTs (natural conditions). Having an associated 30 year actual and natural climatology in place, we are able to put the current event into a climatological context and determine the dynamic contribution that lead to the event as opposed to the thermodynamic contribution which would have made such an event more likely regardless of the synoptic situation. As a second independent method (also applicable in near-real-time), we apply pattern correlation to separate thermodynamic and dynamic contributions. Finally, using reanalysis data, we test whether our attributed dynamic contribution is also detectable in the observations. Despite the high monthly variability, ENSO related teleconnection patterns can be detected fairly robustly as we will demonstrate with a recent example during El Nino. The more consistent the 3 methods are, the more robust our results will be. We note that the choice of time scale matters a lot when determining the dynamic contribution as well as estimating the FAR (Uhe et al. 2016). The weather@home ensemble prediction approach is accompanied by two more methods based on observational data and the CMIP5 ensemble. If the FAR across 3 methods is consistent, we have reason to trust our central attribution statement. Two recent examples will be shown in order to demonstrate the feasibility (van Oldenborgh et al. 2016a/2016b), complemented by new results from South Asia where we also investigate the effects of anthropogenic aerosols.

On the Importance of the Flare's Late Phase for the Solar Extreme Ultraviolet Irradiance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Woods, Thomas N.; Eparvier, Frank; Jones, Andrew R.; Hock, Rachel; Chamberlin, Phillip C.; Klimchuk, James A.; Didkovsky, Leonid; Judge, Darrell; Mariska, John; Bailey, Scott;

The Detection of Diffuse Extended Structure in 3C 273: Implications for Jet Power

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Punsly, Brian; Kharb, Preeti

2016-12-01

We present deep Very Large Array imaging of 3C 273 in order to determine the diffuse, large scale radio structure of this famous radio-loud quasar. Diffuse extended structure (radio lobes) is detected for the first time in these observations as a consequence of high dynamic range in the 327.5 and 1365 MHz images. This emission is used to estimate a time averaged jet power, 7.2 × 1043 erg s-1 < \\overline{Q} < 3.7 × 1044 erg s-1. Brightness temperature arguments indicate consistent values of the time variability Doppler factor and the compactness Doppler factor for the inner jet, δ ≳ 10. Thus, the large apparent broadband bolometric luminosity of the jet, ˜3 × 1046 erg s-1, corresponds to a modest intrinsic luminosity ≳1042 erg s-1, or ˜1% of \\overline{Q}. In summary, we find that 3C 273 is actually a “typical” radio-loud quasar contrary to suggestions in the literature. The modest \\overline{Q} is near the peak of the luminosity distribution for radio-loud quasars and it is consistent with the current rate of dissipation emitted from millimeter wavelengths to gamma rays. The extreme core-jet morphology is an illusion from a near pole-on line of sight to a highly relativistic jet that produces a Doppler enhanced glow that previously swamped the lobe emission. 3C 273 apparently has the intrinsic kpc scale morphology of a classical double radio source, but it is distorted by an extreme Doppler aberration.

Polygenic determinants in extremes of high-density lipoprotein cholesterol[S

PubMed Central

Dron, Jacqueline S.; Wang, Jian; Low-Kam, Cécile; Khetarpal, Sumeet A.; Robinson, John F.; McIntyre, Adam D.; Ban, Matthew R.; Cao, Henian; Rhainds, David; Dubé, Marie-Pierre; Rader, Daniel J.; Lettre, Guillaume; Tardif, Jean-Claude

2017-01-01

HDL cholesterol (HDL-C) remains a superior biochemical predictor of CVD risk, but its genetic basis is incompletely defined. In patients with extreme HDL-C concentrations, we concurrently evaluated the contributions of multiple large- and small-effect genetic variants. In a discovery cohort of 255 unrelated lipid clinic patients with extreme HDL-C levels, we used a targeted next-generation sequencing panel to evaluate rare variants in known HDL metabolism genes, simultaneously with common variants bundled into a polygenic trait score. Two additional cohorts were used for validation and included 1,746 individuals from the Montréal Heart Institute Biobank and 1,048 individuals from the University of Pennsylvania. Findings were consistent between cohorts: we found rare heterozygous large-effect variants in 18.7% and 10.9% of low- and high-HDL-C patients, respectively. We also found common variant accumulation, indicated by extreme polygenic trait scores, in an additional 12.8% and 19.3% of overall cases of low- and high-HDL-C extremes, respectively. Thus, the genetic basis of extreme HDL-C concentrations encountered clinically is frequently polygenic, with contributions from both rare large-effect and common small-effect variants. Multiple types of genetic variants should be considered as contributing factors in patients with extreme dyslipidemia. PMID:28870971

Polygenic determinants in extremes of high-density lipoprotein cholesterol.

PubMed

Dron, Jacqueline S; Wang, Jian; Low-Kam, Cécile; Khetarpal, Sumeet A; Robinson, John F; McIntyre, Adam D; Ban, Matthew R; Cao, Henian; Rhainds, David; Dubé, Marie-Pierre; Rader, Daniel J; Lettre, Guillaume; Tardif, Jean-Claude; Hegele, Robert A

2017-11-01

HDL cholesterol (HDL-C) remains a superior biochemical predictor of CVD risk, but its genetic basis is incompletely defined. In patients with extreme HDL-C concentrations, we concurrently evaluated the contributions of multiple large- and small-effect genetic variants. In a discovery cohort of 255 unrelated lipid clinic patients with extreme HDL-C levels, we used a targeted next-generation sequencing panel to evaluate rare variants in known HDL metabolism genes, simultaneously with common variants bundled into a polygenic trait score. Two additional cohorts were used for validation and included 1,746 individuals from the Montréal Heart Institute Biobank and 1,048 individuals from the University of Pennsylvania. Findings were consistent between cohorts: we found rare heterozygous large-effect variants in 18.7% and 10.9% of low- and high-HDL-C patients, respectively. We also found common variant accumulation, indicated by extreme polygenic trait scores, in an additional 12.8% and 19.3% of overall cases of low- and high-HDL-C extremes, respectively. Thus, the genetic basis of extreme HDL-C concentrations encountered clinically is frequently polygenic, with contributions from both rare large-effect and common small-effect variants. Multiple types of genetic variants should be considered as contributing factors in patients with extreme dyslipidemia. Copyright © 2017 by the American Society for Biochemistry and Molecular Biology, Inc.

Volumetric MRI of the lungs during forced expiration.

PubMed

Berman, Benjamin P; Pandey, Abhishek; Li, Zhitao; Jeffries, Lindsie; Trouard, Theodore P; Oliva, Isabel; Cortopassi, Felipe; Martin, Diego R; Altbach, Maria I; Bilgin, Ali

2016-06-01

Lung function is typically characterized by spirometer measurements, which do not offer spatially specific information. Imaging during exhalation provides spatial information but is challenging due to large movement over a short time. The purpose of this work is to provide a solution to lung imaging during forced expiration using accelerated magnetic resonance imaging. The method uses radial golden angle stack-of-stars gradient echo acquisition and compressed sensing reconstruction. A technique for dynamic three-dimensional imaging of the lungs from highly undersampled data is developed and tested on six subjects. This method takes advantage of image sparsity, both spatially and temporally, including the use of reference frames called bookends. Sparsity, with respect to total variation, and residual from the bookends, enables reconstruction from an extremely limited amount of data. Dynamic three-dimensional images can be captured at sub-150 ms temporal resolution, using only three (or less) acquired radial lines per slice per timepoint. The images have a spatial resolution of 4.6×4.6×10 mm. Lung volume calculations based on image segmentation are compared to those from simultaneously acquired spirometer measurements. Dynamic lung imaging during forced expiration is made possible by compressed sensing accelerated dynamic three-dimensional radial magnetic resonance imaging. Magn Reson Med 75:2295-2302, 2016. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Linearly polarized GHz magnetization dynamics of spin helix modes in the ferrimagnetic insulator Cu2OSeO3.

PubMed

Stasinopoulos, I; Weichselbaumer, S; Bauer, A; Waizner, J; Berger, H; Garst, M; Pfleiderer, C; Grundler, D

2017-08-01

Linear dichroism - the polarization dependent absorption of electromagnetic waves- is routinely exploited in applications as diverse as structure determination of DNA or polarization filters in optical technologies. Here filamentary absorbers with a large length-to-width ratio are a prerequisite. For magnetization dynamics in the few GHz frequency regime strictly linear dichroism was not observed for more than eight decades. Here, we show that the bulk chiral magnet Cu 2 OSeO 3 exhibits linearly polarized magnetization dynamics at an unexpectedly small frequency of about 2 GHz at zero magnetic field. Unlike optical filters that are assembled from filamentary absorbers, the magnet is shown to provide linear polarization as a bulk material for an extremely wide range of length-to-width ratios. In addition, the polarization plane of a given mode can be switched by 90° via a small variation in width. Our findings shed a new light on magnetization dynamics in that ferrimagnetic ordering combined with antisymmetric exchange interaction offers strictly linear polarization and cross-polarized modes for a broad spectrum of sample shapes at zero field. The discovery allows for novel design rules and optimization of microwave-to-magnon transduction in emerging microwave technologies.

High Dynamic Range Characterization of the Trauma Patient Plasma Proteome

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Liu, Tao; Qian, Weijun; Gritsenko, Marina A.

2006-06-08

While human plasma represents an attractive sample for disease biomarker discovery, the extreme complexity and large dynamic range in protein concentrations present significant challenges for characterization, candidate biomarker discovery, and validation. Herein, we describe a strategy that combines immunoaffinity subtraction and chemical fractionation based on cysteinyl peptide and N-glycopeptide captures with 2D-LC-MS/MS to increase the dynamic range of analysis for plasma. Application of this ''divide-and-conquer'' strategy to trauma patient plasma significantly improved the overall dynamic range of detection and resulted in confident identification of 22,267 unique peptides from four different peptide populations (cysteinyl peptides, non-cysteinyl peptides, N-glycopeptides, and non-glycopeptides) thatmore » covered 3654 nonredundant proteins. Numerous low-abundance proteins were identified, exemplified by 78 ''classic'' cytokines and cytokine receptors and by 136 human cell differentiation molecules. Additionally, a total of 2910 different N-glycopeptides that correspond to 662 N-glycoproteins and 1553 N-glycosylation sites were identified. A panel of the proteins identified in this study is known to be involved in inflammation and immune responses. This study established an extensive reference protein database for trauma patients, which provides a foundation for future high-throughput quantitative plasma proteomic studies designed to elucidate the mechanisms that underlie systemic inflammatory responses.« less

Dynamic analysis of space-related linear and non-linear structures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bosela, Paul A.; Shaker, Francis J.; Fertis, Demeter G.

1990-01-01

In order to be cost effective, space structures must be extremely light weight, and subsequently, very flexible structures. The power system for Space Station Freedom is such a structure. Each array consists of a deployable truss mast and a split blanket of photo-voltaic solar collectors. The solar arrays are deployed in orbit, and the blanket is stretched into position as the mast is extended. Geometric stiffness due to the preload make this an interesting non-linear problem. The space station will be subjected to various dynamic loads, during shuttle docking, solar tracking, attitude adjustment, etc. Accurate prediction of the natural frequencies and mode shapes of the space station components, including the solar arrays, is critical for determining the structural adequacy of the components, and for designing a dynamic control system. The process used in developing and verifying the finite element dynamic model of the photo-voltaic arrays is documented. Various problems were identified, such as grounding effects due to geometric stiffness, large displacement effects, and pseudo-stiffness (grounding) due to lack of required rigid body modes. Analysis techniques, such as development of rigorous solutions using continuum mechanics, finite element solution sequence altering, equivalent systems using a curvature basis, Craig-Bampton superelement approach, and modal ordering schemes were utilized. The grounding problems associated with the geometric stiffness are emphasized.

Dynamic analysis of space-related linear and non-linear structures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bosela, Paul A.; Shaker, Francis J.; Fertis, Demeter G.

1990-01-01

In order to be cost effective, space structures must be extremely light weight, and subsequently, very flexible structures. The power system for Space Station Freedom is such a structure. Each array consists of a deployable truss mast and a split blanket of photovoltaic solar collectors. The solar arrays are deployed in orbit, and the blanket is stretched into position as the mast is extended. Geometric stiffness due to the preload make this an interesting non-linear problem. The space station will be subjected to various dynamic loads, during shuttle docking, solar tracking, attitude adjustment, etc. Accurate prediction of the natural frequencies and mode shapes of the space station components, including the solar arrays, is critical for determining the structural adequacy of the components, and for designing a dynamic controls system. The process used in developing and verifying the finite element dynamic model of the photo-voltaic arrays is documented. Various problems were identified, such as grounding effects due to geometric stiffness, large displacement effects, and pseudo-stiffness (grounding) due to lack of required rigid body modes. Analysis techniques, such as development of rigorous solutions using continuum mechanics, finite element solution sequence altering, equivalent systems using a curvature basis, Craig-Bampton superelement approach, and modal ordering schemes were utilized. The grounding problems associated with the geometric stiffness are emphasized.

The Extreme Spin of the Black Hole in Cygnus X-1

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gou, Lijun; McClintock, Jeffre E.; Reid, Mark J.; Orosz, Jerome A.; Steiner, James F.; Narayan, Ramesh; Xiang, Jingen; Remillard, Ronald A.; Arnaud, Keith A.; Davis, Shane W.

2005-01-01

The compact primary in the X-ray binary Cygnus X-1 was the first black hole to be established via dynamical observatIOns. We have recently determined accurate values for its mass and distance, and for the orbital inclination angle of the binary. Building on these.results, which are based on our favored (asynchronous) dynamical model, we have measured the radius of the inner edge of the black hole's accretion disk by fitting its thermal continuum.spectrum to a fully relativistic model of a thin accretion disk. Assuming that the spin axis of the black hole is aligned with the orbital angular momentum vector, we have determined that Cygnus X-I contains a near-extreme Kerr black hole with a spin parameter a* > 0.95 (3(sigma)). For a less probable (synchronous) dynamIcal model, we find a* > 0.92 (3(sigma)). In our analysis, we include the uncertainties in black hole mass orbital inclination angle and distance, and we also include the uncertainty in the calibration of the absolute flux via the Crab. These four sources of uncertainty totally dominate the error budget. The uncertainties introduced by the thin-disk model we employ are particularly small in this case given the extreme spin of the black hole and the disk's low luminosity.

Towards a unified study of extreme events using universality concepts and transdisciplinary analysis methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Balasis, George; Donner, Reik V.; Donges, Jonathan F.; Radebach, Alexander; Eftaxias, Konstantinos; Kurths, Jürgen

2013-04-01

The dynamics of many complex systems is characterized by the same universal principles. In particular, systems which are otherwise quite different in nature show striking similarities in their behavior near tipping points (bifurcations, phase transitions, sudden regime shifts) and associated extreme events. Such critical phenomena are frequently found in diverse fields such as climate, seismology, or financial markets. Notably, the observed similarities include a high degree of organization, persistent behavior, and accelerated energy release, which are common to (among others) phenomena related to geomagnetic variability of the terrestrial magnetosphere (intense magnetic storms), seismic activity (electromagnetic emissions prior to earthquakes), solar-terrestrial physics (solar flares), neurophysiology (epileptic seizures), and socioeconomic systems (stock market crashes). It is an open question whether the spatial and temporal complexity associated with extreme events arises from the system's structural organization (geometry) or from the chaotic behavior inherent to the nonlinear equations governing the dynamics of these phenomena. On the one hand, the presence of scaling laws associated with earthquakes and geomagnetic disturbances suggests understanding these events as generalized phase transitions similar to nucleation and critical phenomena in thermal and magnetic systems. On the other hand, because of the structural organization of the systems (e.g., as complex networks) the associated spatial geometry and/or topology of interactions plays a fundamental role in the emergence of extreme events. Here, a few aspects of the interplay between geometry and dynamics (critical phase transitions) that could result in the emergence of extreme events, which is an open problem, will be discussed.

Multi-Dimensional Analysis of Large, Complex Slope Instability: Case study of Downie Slide, British Columbia, Canada. (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kalenchuk, K. S.; Hutchinson, D.; Diederichs, M. S.

2013-12-01

Downie Slide, one of the world's largest landslides, is a massive, active, composite, extremely slow rockslide located on the west bank of the Revelstoke Reservoir in British Columbia. It is a 1.5 billion m3 rockslide measuring 2400 m along the river valley, 3300m from toe to headscarp and up to 245 m thick. Significant contributions to the field of landslide geomechanics have been made by analyses of spatially and temporally discriminated slope deformations, and how these are controlled by complex geological and geotechnical factors. Downie Slide research demonstrates the importance of delineating massive landslides into morphological regions in order to characterize global slope behaviour and identify localized events, which may or may not influence the overall slope deformation patterns. Massive slope instabilities do not behave as monolithic masses, rather, different landslide zones can display specific landslide processes occurring at variable rates of deformation. The global deformation of Downie Slide is extremely slow moving; however localized regions of the slope incur moderate to high rates of movement. Complex deformation processes and composite failure mechanism are contributed to by topography, non-uniform shear surfaces, heterogeneous rockmass and shear zone strength and stiffness characteristics. Further, from the analysis of temporal changes in landslide behaviour it has been clearly recognized that different regions of the slope respond differently to changing hydrogeological boundary conditions. State-of-the-art methodologies have been developed for numerical simulation of large landslides; these provide important tools for investigating dynamic landslide systems which account for complex three-dimensional geometries, heterogenous shear zone strength parameters, internal shear zones, the interaction of discrete landslide zones and piezometric fluctuations. Numerical models of Downie Slide have been calibrated to reproduce observed slope behaviour, and the calibration process has provided important insight to key factors controlling massive slope mechanics. Through numerical studies it has been shown that the three-dimensional interpretation of basal slip surface geometry and spatial heterogeneity in shear zone stiffness are important factors controlling large-scale slope deformation processes. The role of secondary internal shears and the interaction between landslide morphological zones has also been assessed. Further, numerical simulation of changing groundwater conditions has produced reasonable correlation with field observations. Calibrated models are valuable tools for the forward prediction of landslide dynamics. Calibrated Downie Slide models have been used to investigate how trigger scenarios may accelerate deformations at Downie Slide. The ability to reproduce observed behaviour and forward test hypothesized changes to boundary conditions has valuable application in hazard management of massive landslides. The capacity of decision makers to interpret large amounts of data, respond to rapid changes in a system and understand complex slope dynamics has been enhanced.

Simultaneous abrupt shifts in hydrology and fish assemblage structure in a floodplain lake in the central Amazon

PubMed Central

Röpke, Cristhiana P.; Amadio, Sidinéia; Zuanon, Jansen; Ferreira, Efrem J. G.; Deus, Cláudia Pereira de; Pires, Tiago H. S.; Winemiller, Kirk O.

2017-01-01

Combined effects of climate change and deforestation have altered precipitation patterns in the Amazon. This has led to changes in the frequency of extreme events of flood and drought in recent decades and in the magnitude of the annual flood pulse, a phenomenon that influences virtually all aspects of river-floodplain ecosystem dynamics. Analysis of long-term data revealed abrupt and synchronous changes in hydrology and fish assemblage structure of a floodplain lake near the confluence of Amazon and Negro rivers. After an intense drought in 2005, the assemblage assumed a different and fairly persistent taxonomic composition and functional structure. Declines in abundance after 2005 were more pronounced for species of all sizes having equilibrium life history strategy, large species with periodic life history strategy, and for all trophic levels except primary consumers. Our results suggest that the extreme drought triggered changes in the fish assemblage and subsequent anomalous hydrological conditions have hampered assemblage recovery. These findings stress the need to account for climatic-driven hydrological changes in conservation efforts addressing aquatic biodiversity and fishery resources in the central Amazon. PMID:28071701

Confined Floodplain Dynamics on Semi-Arid Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Entwistle, N. S.

2017-12-01

Many watercourses across southern Africa are characterised by a bedrock influenced `macro-channel' created as a result of geologically recent fluvial incision into ancient planation surfaces. The rivers of the Kruger National Park in Mpumalanga Province, South Africa are no exception, displaying a varied set of channel types within a bedrock template. Contemporary flows are largely contained within the confines of this `macro-channel' and a diverse valley bottom morphology and ecology has developed in response to this flow regime coupled with intermittent fine sediment delivery from the catchment. Aerial imagery and field monitoring of the impact of two cyclone driven extreme flows and subsequent recovery phases suggests that flood impact is spatially variable with bedrock exposure greatest along watercourses already severely impacted by previous events. Subsequent system development has been characterised by the redistribution and vegetative colonisation of unconsolidated sandy sediment over bedrock. On less impacted systems vegetative induced recovery has, in contrast, been rapid with many of the species present displaying significant resilience to extreme flows forming residual pockets which are subsequently developing alongside embryonic morphologic recovery. Using these observations a model of valley bottom recovery is presented.

Detection of Quasi-Periodic Pulsations in Solar EUV Time Series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dominique, M.; Zhukov, A. N.; Dolla, L.; Inglis, A.; Lapenta, G.

2018-04-01

Quasi-periodic pulsations (QPPs) are intrinsically connected to the mechanism of solar flares. They are regularly observed in the impulsive phase of flares since the 1970s. In the past years, the studies of QPPs regained interest with the advent of a new generation of soft X-ray/extreme ultraviolet radiometers that pave the way for statistical surveys. Since the amplitude of QPPs in these wavelengths is rather small, detecting them implies that the overall trend of the time series needs to be removed before applying any Fourier or wavelet transform. This detrending process is known to produce artificial detection of periods that must then be distinguished from real ones. In this paper, we propose a set of criteria to help identify real periods and discard artifacts. We apply these criteria to data taken by the Extreme Ultraviolet Variability Experiment (EVE)/ESP onboard the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) and the Large Yield Radiometer (LYRA) onboard the PRoject for On-Board Autonomy 2 (PROBA2) to search for QPPs in flares stronger than M5.0 that occurred during Solar Cycle 24.

The Blue Needle: A Highly Asymmetric Debris Disk Surrounding HD 15115

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kalas, P.; Graham, J. R.; Fitzgerald, M.

2007-06-01

Using the ACS coronagraph aboard the Hubble Space Telescope in the optical, and Keck adaptive optics in the near- infrared, we discovered an edge-on dust disk surrounding the F2V star HD 15115. HD 15115 is the most asymmetric debris disk imaged to date, with an eastward pointing midplane detected to ~315 AU radius, and a westward pointing midplane detected to >550 AU radius. The blue optical to near-infrared scattered light color relative to the star may indicate dust scattering properties similar to the AU Mic debris disk. The existence of a large debris disk surrounding HD 15115 is consistent with its proposed membership in the Beta Pic moving group, and the extreme asymmetry presents significant theoretical challenges. We hypothesize that the extreme asymmetries may be caused by dynamical perturbations from HIP 12545, another Beta Pic Moving Group member east of HD 15115, that shares a common proper motion vector, heliocentric distance, Galactic space velocity, and age. HD 15115 is a prime candidate for exoplanet detection via radial velocity and transit techniques.

Surface plasmon resonance spectroscopy sensor and methods for using same

DOEpatents

Anderson, Brian Benjamin; Nave, Stanley Eugene

2002-01-01

A surface plasmon resonance ("SPR") probe with a detachable sensor head and system and methods for using the same in various applications is described. The SPR probe couples fiber optic cables directly to an SPR substrate that has a generally planar input surface and a generally curved reflecting surface, such as a substrate formed as a hemisphere. Forming the SPR probe in this manner allows the probe to be miniaturized and operate without the need for high precision, expensive and bulky collimating or focusing optics. Additionally, the curved reflecting surface of the substrate can be coated with one or multiple patches of sensing medium to allow the probe to detect for multiple analytes of interest or to provide multiple readings for comparison and higher precision. Specific applications for the probe are disclosed, including extremely high sensitive relative humidity and dewpoint detection for, e.g., moisture-sensitive environment such as volatile chemical reactions. The SPR probe disclosed operates with a large dynamic range and provides extremely high quality spectra despite being robust enough for field deployment and readily manufacturable.

Simultaneous abrupt shifts in hydrology and fish assemblage structure in a floodplain lake in the central Amazon.

PubMed

Röpke, Cristhiana P; Amadio, Sidinéia; Zuanon, Jansen; Ferreira, Efrem J G; Deus, Cláudia Pereira de; Pires, Tiago H S; Winemiller, Kirk O

2017-01-10

Combined effects of climate change and deforestation have altered precipitation patterns in the Amazon. This has led to changes in the frequency of extreme events of flood and drought in recent decades and in the magnitude of the annual flood pulse, a phenomenon that influences virtually all aspects of river-floodplain ecosystem dynamics. Analysis of long-term data revealed abrupt and synchronous changes in hydrology and fish assemblage structure of a floodplain lake near the confluence of Amazon and Negro rivers. After an intense drought in 2005, the assemblage assumed a different and fairly persistent taxonomic composition and functional structure. Declines in abundance after 2005 were more pronounced for species of all sizes having equilibrium life history strategy, large species with periodic life history strategy, and for all trophic levels except primary consumers. Our results suggest that the extreme drought triggered changes in the fish assemblage and subsequent anomalous hydrological conditions have hampered assemblage recovery. These findings stress the need to account for climatic-driven hydrological changes in conservation efforts addressing aquatic biodiversity and fishery resources in the central Amazon.

Tremor, remote triggering and earthquake cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peng, Z.

2012-12-01

Deep tectonic tremor and episodic slow-slip events have been observed at major plate-boundary faults around the Pacific Rim. These events have much longer source durations than regular earthquakes, and are generally located near or below the seismogenic zone where regular earthquakes occur. Tremor and slow-slip events appear to be extremely stress sensitive, and could be instantaneously triggered by distant earthquakes and solid earth tides. However, many important questions remain open. For example, it is still not clear what are the necessary conditions for tremor generation, and how remote triggering could affect large earthquake cycle. Here I report a global search of tremor triggered by recent large teleseismic earthquakes. We mainly focus on major subduction zones around the Pacific Rim. These include the southwest and northeast Japan subduction zones, the Hikurangi subduction zone in New Zealand, the Cascadia subduction zone, and the major subduction zones in Central and South America. In addition, we examine major strike-slip faults around the Caribbean plate, the Queen Charlotte fault in northern Pacific Northwest Coast, and the San Andreas fault system in California. In each place, we first identify triggered tremor as a high-frequency non-impulsive signal that is in phase with the large-amplitude teleseismic waves. We also calculate the dynamic stress and check the triggering relationship with the Love and Rayleigh waves. Finally, we calculate the triggering potential with the local fault orientation and surface-wave incident angles. Our results suggest that tremor exists at many plate-boundary faults in different tectonic environments, and could be triggered by dynamic stress as low as a few kPas. In addition, we summarize recent observations of slow-slip events and earthquake swarms triggered by large distant earthquakes. Finally, we propose several mechanisms that could explain apparent clustering of large earthquakes around the world.

Early chemo-dynamical evolution of dwarf galaxies deduced from enrichment of r-process elements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hirai, Yutaka; Ishimaru, Yuhri; Saitoh, Takayuki R.; Fujii, Michiko S.; Hidaka, Jun; Kajino, Toshitaka

2017-04-01

The abundance of elements synthesized by the rapid neutron-capture process (r-process elements) of extremely metal-poor (EMP) stars in the Local Group galaxies gives us clues to clarify the early evolutionary history of the Milky Way halo. The Local Group dwarf galaxies would have similarly evolved with building blocks of the Milky Way halo. However, how the chemo-dynamical evolution of the building blocks affects the abundance of r-process elements is not yet clear. In this paper, we perform a series of simulations using dwarf galaxy models with various dynamical times and total mass, which determine star formation histories. We find that galaxies with dynamical times longer than 100 Myr have star formation rates less than 10-3 M⊙ yr-1 and slowly enrich metals in their early phase. These galaxies can explain the observed large scatters of r-process abundance in EMP stars in the Milky Way halo regardless of their total mass. On the other hand, the first neutron star merger appears at a higher metallicity in galaxies with a dynamical time shorter than typical neutron star merger times. The scatters of r-process elements mainly come from the inhomogeneity of the metals in the interstellar medium whereas the scatters of α-elements are mostly due to the difference in the yield of each supernova. Our results demonstrate that the future observations of r-process elements in EMP stars will be able to constrain the early chemo-dynamical evolution of the Local Group galaxies.

A comparison between elastic network interpolation and MD simulation of 16S ribosomal RNA.

PubMed

Kim, Moon K; Li, Wen; Shapiro, Bruce A; Chirikjian, Gregory S

2003-12-01

In this paper a coarse-grained method called elastic network interpolation (ENI) is used to generate feasible transition pathways between two given conformations of the core central domain of 16S Ribosomal RNA (16S rRNA). The two given conformations are the extremes generated by a molecular dynamics (MD) simulation, which differ from each other by 10A in root-mean-square deviation (RMSD). It takes only several hours to build an ENI pathway on a 1.5GHz Pentium with 512 MB memory, while the MD takes several weeks on high-performance multi-processor servers such as the SGI ORIGIN 2000/2100. It is shown that multiple ENI pathways capture the essential anharmonic motions of millions of timesteps in a particular MD simulation. A coarse-grained normal mode analysis (NMA) is performed on each intermediate ENI conformation, and the lowest 1% of the normal modes (representing about 40 degrees of freedom (DOF)) are used to parameterize fluctuations. This combined ENI/NMA method captures all intermediate conformations in the MD run with 1.5A RMSD on average. In addition, if we restrict attention to the time interval of the MD run between the two extreme conformations, the RMSD between the closest ENI/NMA pathway and the MD results is about 1A. These results may serve as a paradigm for reduced-DOF dynamic simulations of large biological macromolecules as well as a method for the reduced-parameter interpretation of massive amounts of MD data.

Fiber-Optic Imaging Probe Developed for Space Used to Detect Diabetes Through the Eye

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ansari, Rafat R.; Chenault, Michelle V.; Datiles, Manuel B., III; Sebag, J.; Suh, Kwang I.

2000-01-01

Approximately 16 million Americans have diabetes mellitus, which can severely impair eyesight by causing cataracts, diabetic retinopathy, and glaucoma. Cataracts are 1.6 times more common in people with diabetes than in those without diabetes, and cataract extraction is the only surgical treatment. In many cases, diabetes-related ocular pathologies go undiagnosed until visual function is compromised. This ongoing pilot project seeks to study the progression of diabetes in a unique animal model by monitoring changes in the lens with a safe, sensitive, dynamic light-scattering probe. Dynamic light scattering (DLS), has the potential to diagnose cataracts at the molecular level. Recently, a new DLS fiber-optic probe was developed at the NASA Glenn Research Center at Lewis Field for noncontact, accurate, and extremely sensitive particle-sizing measurements in fluid dispersions and suspensions (ref. 1). This compact, portable, and rugged probe is free of optical alignment, offers point-and-shoot operation for various online field applications and challenging environments, and yet is extremely flexible in regards to sample container sizes, materials, and shapes. No external vibration isolation and no index matching are required. It can measure particles as small as 1 nm and as large as few micrometers in a wide concentration range from very dilute (waterlike) dispersions to very turbid (milklike) suspensions. It is safe and fast to use, since it only requires very low laser power (10 nW to 3 mW) with very short data acquisition times (2 to 10 sec).

Reference values for physical performance measures in the aging working population.

PubMed

Cote, Mark P; Kenny, Anne; Dussetschleger, Jeffrey; Farr, Dana; Chaurasia, Ashok; Cherniack, Martin

2014-02-01

The aim of this study was to determine reference physical performance values in older aging workers. Cross-sectional physical performance measures were collected for 736 manufacturing workers to assess effects of work and nonwork factors on age-related changes in musculoskeletal function and health. Participants underwent surveys and physical testing that included bioelectrical impedance analysis, range-of-motion measures, exercise testing, and dynamic assessment. Physical characteristics, such as blood pressure and body fat percentage, were comparable to published values. Dynamic and range-of-motion measurements differed from published normative results. Women had age-related decreases in cervical extension and lateral rotation. Older men had better spinal flexion than expected. Predicted age-related decline in lower-extremity strength and shoulder strength in women was not seen. Men declined in handgrip, lower-extremity strength, and knee extension strength, but not trunk strength, across age groups. There was no appreciable decline in muscle fatigue at the trunk, shoulder, and knee with aging for either gender, except for the youngest age group of women. Normative values may underestimate physical performance in "healthy" older workers, thereby underappreciating declines in less healthy older workers. Work may be preservative of function for a large group of selected individuals. A "healthy worker effect" may be greater for musculoskeletal disease and function than for heart disease and mortality. Clinicians and researchers studying musculoskeletal function in older workers can use a more specific set of reference values.

Evolution of cooperation in spatial iterated Prisoner's Dilemma games under localized extremal dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Zhen; Yu, Chao; Cui, Guang-Hai; Li, Ya-Peng; Li, Ming-Chu

2016-02-01

The spatial Iterated Prisoner's Dilemma game has been widely studied in order to explain the evolution of cooperation. Considering the large strategy space size and infinite interaction times, it is unrealistic to adopt the common imitate-best updating rule, which assumes that the human players have much stronger abilities to recognize their neighbors' strategies than they do in the one-shot game. In this paper, a novel localized extremal dynamic system is proposed, in which each player only needs to recognize the payoff of his neighbors and changes his strategy randomly when he receives the lowest payoff in his neighborhood. The evolution of cooperation is here explored under this updating rule for neighborhoods of different sizes, which are characterized by their corresponding radiuses r. The results show that when r = 1, the system is trapped in a checkerboard-like state, where half of the players consistently use AllD-like strategies and the other half constantly change their strategies. When r = 2, the system first enters an AllD-like state, from which it escapes, and finally evolves to a TFT-like state. When r is larger, the system locks in a situation with similar low average fitness as r = 1. The number of active players and the ability to form clusters jointly distinguish the evolutionary processes for different values of r from each other. The current findings further provide some insight into the evolution of cooperation and collective behavior in biological and social systems.