Large Scale Influences on Summertime Extreme Precipitation in the Northeastern United States.

PubMed

Marquardt Collow, Allison B; Bosilovich, Michael G; Koster, Randal D

2016-12-01

Observations indicate that over the last few decades there has been a statistically significant increase in precipitation in the Northeastern United States and that this can be attributed to an increase in precipitation associated with extreme precipitation events. Here we use a state-of-the-art atmospheric reanalysis to examine such events in detail. Daily extreme precipitation events defined at the 75 th and 95 th percentile from gridded gauge observations are identified for a selected region within the Northeast. Atmospheric variables from the Modern Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications - Version 2 (MERRA-2) are then composited during these events to illustrate the time evolution of associated synoptic structures, with a focus on vertically integrated water vapor fluxes, sea level pressure, and 500 hPa heights. Anomalies of these fields move into the region from the northwest, with stronger anomalies present in the 95 th percentile case. Although previous studies show tropical cyclones are responsible for the most intense extreme precipitation events, only 10% of the events in this study are caused by tropical cyclones. On the other hand, extreme events resulting from cut off low pressure systems have increased. The time period of the study was divided in half to determine how the mean composite has changed over time. An arc of lower sea level pressure along the east coast and a change in the vertical profile of equivalent potential temperature suggest a possible increase in the frequency or intensity of synoptic scale baroclinic disturbances.

Large Scale Influences on Summertime Extreme Precipitation in the Northeastern United States

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Collow, Allison B. Marquardt; Bosilovich, Michael G.; Koster, Randal Dean

2016-01-01

Observations indicate that over the last few decades there has been a statistically significant increase in precipitation in the northeastern United States and that this can be attributed to an increase in precipitation associated with extreme precipitation events. Here a state-of-the-art atmospheric reanalysis is used to examine such events in detail. Daily extreme precipitation events defined at the 75th and 95th percentile from gridded gauge observations are identified for a selected region within the Northeast. Atmospheric variables from the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2), are then composited during these events to illustrate the time evolution of associated synoptic structures, with a focus on vertically integrated water vapor fluxes, sea level pressure, and 500-hectopascal heights. Anomalies of these fields move into the region from the northwest, with stronger anomalies present in the 95th percentile case. Although previous studies show tropical cyclones are responsible for the most intense extreme precipitation events, only 10 percent of the events in this study are caused by tropical cyclones. On the other hand, extreme events resulting from cutoff low pressure systems have increased. The time period of the study was divided in half to determine how the mean composite has changed over time. An arc of lower sea level pressure along the East Coast and a change in the vertical profile of equivalent potential temperature suggest a possible increase in the frequency or intensity of synoptic-scale baroclinic disturbances.

Changes in the Probability of Extreme Events: Where to Look for their Causes?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Groisman, P. Y.; Gulev, S. K.

2011-12-01

When wet or dry events are extraordinary and are associated with flooding, water shortages, severe vegetation stress, crop failures, property losses, and harm to human health, we name them extremes. Numerous observational studies show that in the past several decades precipitation has become more intense over most of the extra-tropics. At the same time, (and often in the same regions) precipitation events may occur more or less frequently or come in sequences of prolonged no-rain and wet periods. Each extreme event which manifests itself is a consequence of individual factors that are difficult to foresee. However, when these events occur more frequently, we must admit that there are changes in the probability of their occurrence and try to estimate why this happens. For example, in attempts to project prolonged extreme events (such as droughts) in a given season, climatologists used to look for their precursors in the Earth system "memory" that include anomalies in sea ice (SI) and snow cover extents (SCE), sea surface temperature (SST), and soil moisture and for their patterns (e.g., Southern Oscillation). However, the major "memory" component of the Earth system is the Earth Climate System itself. It began changing (IPCC 2007) and is not any longer a constant factor: SST, SI, and SCE anomalies of the past now became "climatology" and it is time to include this new reality in our analyses of the frequency and intensity of extreme events. Furthermore, land use, urban development, industrial development, and water management keep changing landscapes and, there are good reasons to believe that regional environmental changes feed back causing in some areas changes in the probability of extreme events. The central United States is among the regions where the strongest increase in intense rainfall in the 20th century has been documented. This raises the question of how precipitation patterns in the central US will evolve in the future: Will the recent trends toward increases in intense rainfall continue? We present and try to substantiate a hypothesis that the observed changes in characteristics of precipitation in the central US during the 20th century have been produced by interactions of local and regional land use change with global climate changes. We shall describe climatological and anthropogenic precursors of several extreme outbreaks over the northern extratropics. These precursors were waiting for their time and manifested themselves when the time became right. For example, in order to anticipate changes in the probability of the future heat outbreaks over Europe (including European Russia), the factors that control prolonged summer anticyclone conditions over the region should be thoroughly monitored and skillfully projected. Apparently, anomalies and/or trends in regional mean surface air temperature and precipitation are not the best among these precursors.

Planes, trains, automobiles--and tea sets: extremely intense interests in very young children.

PubMed

DeLoache, Judy S; Simcock, Gabrielle; Macari, Suzanne

2007-11-01

Some normally developing young children show an intense, passionate interest in a particular category of objects or activities. The present article documents the existence of extremely intense interests that emerge very early in life and establishes some of the basic parameters of the phenomenon. Surveys and interviews with 177 parents revealed that nearly one third of young children have extremely intense interests. The nature of these intense interests is described, with particular focus on their emergence, commonalities in the content of the interests, and the reactions of other people to them. One of the most striking findings is a large gender difference: Extremely intense interests are much more common for young boys than for girls. (c) 2007 APA.

Aerobic Exercise Training in Post-Polio Syndrome: Process Evaluation of a Randomized Controlled Trial.

PubMed

Voorn, Eric L; Koopman, Fieke S; Brehm, Merel A; Beelen, Anita; de Haan, Arnold; Gerrits, Karin H L; Nollet, Frans

2016-01-01

To explore reasons for the lack of efficacy of a high intensity aerobic exercise program in post-polio syndrome (PPS) on cardiorespiratory fitness by evaluating adherence to the training program and effects on muscle function. A process evaluation using data from an RCT. Forty-four severely fatigued individuals with PPS were randomized to exercise therapy (n = 22) or usual care (n = 22). Participants in the exercise group were instructed to exercise 3 times weekly for 4 months on a bicycle ergometer (60-70% heart rate reserve). The attendance rate was high (median 89%). None of the participants trained within the target heart rate range during >75% of the designated time. Instead, participants exercised at lower intensities, though still around the anaerobic threshold (AT) most of the time. Muscle function did not improve in the exercise group. Our results suggest that severely fatigued individuals with PPS cannot adhere to a high intensity aerobic exercise program on a cycle ergometer. Despite exercise intensities around the AT, lower extremity muscle function nor cardiorespiratory fitness improved. Improving the aerobic capacity in PPS is difficult through exercise primarily focusing on the lower extremities, and may require a more individualized approach, including the use of other large muscle groups instead. Netherlands National Trial Register NTR1371.

Data informatics for the Detection, Characterization, and Attribution of Climate Extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Collins, W.; Wehner, M. F.; O'Brien, T. A.; Paciorek, C. J.; Krishnan, H.; Johnson, J. N.; Prabhat, M.

2015-12-01

The potential for increasing frequency and intensity of extremephenomena including downpours, heat waves, and tropical cyclonesconstitutes one of the primary risks of climate change for society andthe environment. The challenge of characterizing these risks is thatextremes represent the "tails" of distributions of atmosphericphenomena and are, by definition, highly localized and typicallyrelatively transient. Therefore very large volumes of observationaldata and projections of future climate are required to quantify theirproperties in a robust manner. Massive data analytics are required inorder to detect individual extremes, accumulate statistics on theirproperties, quantify how these statistics are changing with time, andattribute the effects of anthropogenic global warming on thesestatistics. We describe examples of the suite of techniques the climate communityis developing to address these analytical challenges. The techniquesinclude massively parallel methods for detecting and trackingatmospheric rivers and cyclones; data-intensive extensions togeneralized extreme value theory to summarize the properties ofextremes; and multi-model ensembles of hindcasts to quantify theattributable risk of anthropogenic influence on individual extremes.We conclude by highlighting examples of these methods developed by ourCASCADE (Calibrated and Systematic Characterization, Attribution, andDetection of Extremes) project.

Climate signature of Northwest U.S. precipitation Extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kushnir, Y.; Nakamura, J.

2017-12-01

The climate signature of precipitation extremes in the Northwest U.S. - the region that includes Oregon, Washington, Idaho, Montana and Wyoming - is studied using composite analysis of atmospheric fields leading to and associated with extreme rainfall events. A K-Medoids cluster analysis is applied to winter (November-February) months, maximum 5-day precipitation amounts calculated from 1-degree gridded daily rainfall between 1950/51 and 2013/14. The clustering divides the region into three sub-regions: one over the far eastern part of the analysis domain, includeing most of Montana and Wyoming. Two other sub-regions are in the west, lying north and south of the latitude of 45N. Using the time series corresponding to the Medoid centers, we extract the largest (top 5%) monthly extreme events to form the basis for the composite analysis. The main circulation feature distinguishing a 5-day extreme precipitation event in the two western sub-regions of the Northwest is the presence of a large, blocking, high pressure anomaly over the Gulf of Alaska about a week before the beginning of the 5-day intense precipitation event. The high pressure center intensifies considerably with time, drifting slowly westward, up to a day before the extreme event. During that time, a weak low pressure centers appears at 30N, to the southwest of the high, deepening as it moves east. As the extreme rainfall event is about to begin, the now deep low is encroaching on the Northwest coast while its southern flank taps well south into the subtropical Pacific, drawing moisture from as south as 15N. During the 5-day extreme precipitation event the high pressure center moves west and weakens while the now intense low converges large amounts of subtropical moisture to precipitate over the western Northwest. The implication of this analysis for extended range prediction is assessed.

Extreme heat changes post-heat wave community reassembly

PubMed Central

Seifert, Linda I; Weithoff, Guntram; Vos, Matthijs

2015-01-01

Climate forecasts project further increases in extremely high-temperature events. These present threats to biodiversity, as they promote population declines and local species extinctions. This implies that ecological communities will need to rely more strongly on recovery processes, such as recolonization from a meta-community context. It is poorly understood how differences in extreme event intensity change the outcome of subsequent community reassembly and if such extremes modify the biotic environment in ways that would prevent the successful re-establishment of lost species. We studied replicated aquatic communities consisting of algae and herbivorous rotifers in a design that involved a control and two different heat wave intensity treatments (29°C and 39°C). Animal species that suffered heat-induced extinction were subsequently re-introduced at the same time and density, in each of the two treatments. The 39°C treatment led to community closure in all replicates, meaning that a previously successful herbivore species could not re-establish itself in the postheat wave community. In contrast, such closure never occurred after a 29°C event. Heat wave intensity determined the number of herbivore extinctions and strongly affected algal relative abundances. Re-introduced herbivore species were thus confronted with significantly different food environments. This ecological legacy generated by heat wave intensity led to differences in the failure or success of herbivore species re-introductions. Reassembly was significantly more variable, and hence less predictable, after an extreme heat wave, and was more canalized after a moderate one. Our results pertain to relatively simple communities, but they suggest that ecological legacies introduced by extremely high-temperature events may change subsequent ecological recovery and even prevent the successful re-establishment of lost species. Knowing the processes promoting and preventing ecological recovery is crucial to the success of species re-introduction programs and to our ability to restore ecosystems damaged by environmental extremes. PMID:26078851

Predictors of Upper-Extremity Physical Function in Older Adults.

PubMed

Hermanussen, Hugo H; Menendez, Mariano E; Chen, Neal C; Ring, David; Vranceanu, Ana-Maria

2016-10-01

Little is known about the influence of habitual participation in physical exercise and diet on upper-extremity physical function in older adults. To assess the relationship of general physical exercise and diet to upper-extremity physical function and pain intensity in older adults. A cohort of 111 patients 50 or older completed a sociodemographic survey, the Rapid Assessment of Physical Activity (RAPA), an 11-point ordinal pain intensity scale, a Mediterranean diet questionnaire, and three Patient- Reported Outcomes Measurement Information System (PROMIS) based questionnaires: Pain Interference to measure inability to engage in activities due to pain, Upper-Extremity Physical Function, and Depression. Multivariable linear regression modeling was used to characterize the association of physical activity, diet, depression, and pain interference to pain intensity and upper-extremity function. Higher general physical activity was associated with higher PROMIS Upper-Extremity Physical Function and lower pain intensity in bivariate analyses. Adherence to the Mediterranean diet did not correlate with PROMIS Upper-Extremity Physical Function or pain intensity in bivariate analysis. In multivariable analyses factors associated with higher PROMIS Upper-Extremity Physical Function were male sex, non-traumatic diagnosis and PROMIS Pain Interference, with the latter accounting for most of the observed variability (37%). Factors associated with greater pain intensity in multivariable analyses included fewer years of education and higher PROMIS Pain Interference. General physical activity and diet do not seem to be as strongly or directly associated with upper-extremity physical function as pain interference.

Effects of Radiation Damping in Extreme Ultra-intense Laser-Plasma Interaction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pandit, Rishi R.

Recent advances in the development of intense short pulse lasers are significant. Now it is available to access a laser with intensity 1021W/cm2 by focusing a petawatt class laser. In a few years, the intensity will exceed 1022W/cm2 , at which intensity electrons accelerated by the laser get energy more than 100 MeV and start to emit radiation strongly. Resultingly, the damping of electron motion can become large. In order to study this problem, we developed a code to solve a set of equations describing the evolution of a strong electromagnetic wave interacting with a single electron. Usually the equation of motion of an electron including radiation damping under the influence of electromagnetic fields is derived from the Lorentz-Dirac equation treating the damping as a perturbation. So far people had used the first order damping equation. This is because the second order term seems to be small and actually it is negligible under 1022W/cm2 intensity. The derivation of 2nd order equation is also complicated and challenging. We derived the second order damping equations for the first time and implemented in the code. The code was then tested via single particle motion in the extreme intensity laser. It was found that the 1st order damping term is reasonable up to the intensity 1022W/cm2, but the 2nd oder term becomes not negligible and comparable in magnitude to the first order term beyond 1023W/cm2. The radiation damping model was introduced using a one-dimensional particle-in-cell code (PIC), and tested in the laser-plasma interaction at extreme intensity. The strong damping of hot electrons in high energy tail was demonstrated in PIC simulations.

Intensity changes in future extreme precipitation: A statistical event-based approach.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manola, Iris; van den Hurk, Bart; de Moel, Hans; Aerts, Jeroen

2017-04-01

Short-lived precipitation extremes are often responsible for hazards in urban and rural environments with economic and environmental consequences. The precipitation intensity is expected to increase about 7% per degree of warming, according to the Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) relation. However, the observations often show a much stronger increase in the sub-daily values. In particular, the behavior of the hourly summer precipitation from radar observations with the dew point temperature (the Pi-Td relation) for the Netherlands suggests that for moderate to warm days the intensification of the precipitation can be even higher than 21% per degree of warming, that is 3 times higher than the expected CC relation. The rate of change depends on the initial precipitation intensity, as low percentiles increase with a rate below CC, the medium percentiles with 2CC and the moderate-high and high percentiles with 3CC. This non-linear statistical Pi-Td relation is suggested to be used as a delta-transformation to project how a historic extreme precipitation event would intensify under future, warmer conditions. Here, the Pi-Td relation is applied over a selected historic extreme precipitation event to 'up-scale' its intensity to warmer conditions. Additionally, the selected historic event is simulated in the high-resolution, convective-permitting weather model Harmonie. The initial and boundary conditions are alternated to represent future conditions. The comparison between the statistical and the numerical method of projecting the historic event to future conditions showed comparable intensity changes, which depending on the initial percentile intensity, range from below CC to a 3CC rate of change per degree of warming. The model tends to overestimate the future intensities for the low- and the very high percentiles and the clouds are somewhat displaced, due to small wind and convection changes. The total spatial cloud coverage in the model remains, as also in the statistical method, unchanged. The advantages of the suggested Pi-Td method of projecting future precipitation events from historic events is that it is simple to use, is less expensive time, computational and resource wise compared to a numerical model. The outcome can be used directly for hydrological and climatological studies and for impact analysis such as for flood risk assessments.

Regional and local increases in storm intensity in the San Francisco Bay Area, USA, between 1890 and 2010

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Russo, Tess A.; Fisher, Andrew T.; Winslow, Dustin M.

2013-04-01

Studies of extreme precipitation have documented changes at the continental scale during the twentieth century, but few studies have quantified changes at small to regional spatial scales during the same time. We analyze historic data from over 600 precipitation stations in the San Francisco Bay Area (SFBA), California, to assess whether there have been statistically significant changes in extreme precipitation between 1890 and 2010. An annual exceedance probability analysis of extreme precipitation events in the SFBA, coupled with a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm, reveals an increase in the occurrence of large events. The depth-duration-frequency characteristics of maximum annual precipitation events having durations of 1 h to 60 days indicate on average an increase in storm intensity in the last 120 years, with the intensity of the largest (least frequent) events increasing the most. Mean annual precipitation (MAP) also increased during the study period, but the relative increase in extreme event intensity exceeds that of MAP, indicating that a greater fraction of precipitation fell during large events. Analysis of data from subareas within the SFBA region indicates considerable heterogeneity in the observed nonstationarity; for example, the 5 day, 25 year event exceedance depth changed by +26%, +16%, and -1% in San Francisco, Santa Rosa, and San Jose, respectively. These results emphasize the importance of analyzing local data for accurate risk assessment, emergency planning, resource management, and climate model calibration.

Quantifying uncertainties in wind energy assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Patlakas, Platon; Galanis, George; Kallos, George

2015-04-01

The constant rise of wind energy production and the subsequent penetration in global energy markets during the last decades resulted in new sites selection with various types of problems. Such problems arise due to the variability and the uncertainty of wind speed. The study of the wind speed distribution lower and upper tail may support the quantification of these uncertainties. Such approaches focused on extreme wind conditions or periods below the energy production threshold are necessary for a better management of operations. Towards this direction, different methodologies are presented for the credible evaluation of potential non-frequent/extreme values for these environmental conditions. The approaches used, take into consideration the structural design of the wind turbines according to their lifespan, the turbine failures, the time needed for repairing as well as the energy production distribution. In this work, a multi-parametric approach for studying extreme wind speed values will be discussed based on tools of Extreme Value Theory. In particular, the study is focused on extreme wind speed return periods and the persistence of no energy production based on a weather modeling system/hind cast/10-year dataset. More specifically, two methods (Annual Maxima and Peaks Over Threshold) were used for the estimation of extreme wind speeds and their recurrence intervals. Additionally, two different methodologies (intensity given duration and duration given intensity, both based on Annual Maxima method) were implied to calculate the extreme events duration, combined with their intensity as well as the event frequency. The obtained results prove that the proposed approaches converge, at least on the main findings, for each case. It is also remarkable that, despite the moderate wind speed climate of the area, several consequent days of no energy production are observed.

A study on the prevalence of upper extremity repetitive strain injuries among the handloom weavers of West Bengal.

PubMed

Banerjee, Prasun; Gangopadhyay, Somnath

2003-06-01

Handloom is one of the oldest cottage industries in India, particularly in West Bengal, where a considerable number of rural people are engaged in weaving. Purposes of the present investigation were to clarify the prevalence of repetitive strain injuries in upper extremities among the handloom weavers and to identify the risk factors leading to its development. Fifty male handloom weavers were randomly selected from the population. A questionnaire (Kourinka et al., 1987) method including Borg scale assessment of pain, checklist analyses of the work, and time-motion studies for analyzing the repetitiveness/non-repetitiveness of the job were implemented. The time-motion analyses demonstrated that weaving occupied over 50% of the work cycle time for majority of subjects, and thus could be regarded as a repetitive activity. Statistical analyses revealed a highly significant correlation between the intensity of pain feeling and the repetitiveness on one hand, and the year of experience as a weaver on the other. By contrast, no significant relationship was observed between chronological ages of weavers and the pain intensity. These results suggested that highly repetitive works engaged for a long time could increase the intensity of the pain felt and would lead to repetitive strain injuries.

Incorporating yoga into an intense physical therapy program in someone with Parkinson's disease: a case report.

PubMed

Moriello, Gabriele; Denio, Christopher; Abraham, Megan; DeFrancesco, Danielle; Townsley, Jill

2013-10-01

The purpose of this case report was to document outcomes following an intense exercise program integrating yoga with physical therapy exercise in a male with Parkinson's disease. The participant performed an intense 1½-hour program (Phase A) incorporating strengthening, balance, agility and yoga exercises twice weekly for 12 weeks. He then completed a new home exercise program developed by the researchers (Phase B) for 12 weeks. His score on the Parkinson's Disease Questionnaire improved 16 points while his score on the High Level Mobility Assessment tool improved 11 points. There were also improvements in muscle length of several lower extremity muscles, in upper and lower extremity muscle strength, in dynamic balance and he continues to work full time 29 months later. There were no improvements in thoracic posture or aerobic power. This intense program was an effective dose of exercise for someone with Parkinson's disease and allowed him to continue to participate in work, leisure, and community activities. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Butterflies, Black swans and Dragon kings: How to use the Dynamical Systems Theory to build a "zoology" of mid-latitude circulation atmospheric extremes?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Faranda, D.; Yiou, P.; Alvarez-Castro, M. C. M.

2015-12-01

A combination of dynamical systems and statistical techniques allows for a robust assessment of the dynamical properties of the mid-latitude atmospheric circulation. Extremes at different spatial and time scales are not only associated to exceptionally intense weather structures (e.g. extra-tropical cyclones) but also to rapid changes of circulation regimes (thunderstorms, supercells) or the extreme persistence of weather structure (heat waves, cold spells). We will show how the dynamical systems theory of recurrence combined to the extreme value theory can take into account the spatial and temporal dependence structure of the mid-latitude circulation structures and provide information on the statistics of extreme events.

The effects of different intensities, frequencies and exposure times of extremely low-frequency electromagnetic fields on the growth of Staphylococcus aureus and Escherichia coli O157:H7.

PubMed

Bayır, Ece; Bilgi, Eyüp; Şendemir-Ürkmez, Aylin; Hameş-Kocabaş, E Esin

2015-03-01

The impact of different types of extremely low-frequency electromagnetic fields (ELF-EMF) on the growth of Staphylococcus aureus and Escherichia coli O157:H7 was investigated. The cultures of bacteria in broth media were exposed to sinusoidal homogenous ELF-EMF with 2 and 4 mT magnetic intensities. Each intensity for each bacteria was combined with three different frequencies (20, 40 and 50 Hz), and four different exposure times (1, 2, 4 and 6 h). A cell suspension of each experiment was diluted for the appropriate range and inoculated to Mueller-Hinton Agar (MHA) plates after exposure to ELF-EMF. The number of colony forming units (CFU) of both strains was obtained after incubation at 37 °C for 24 h. Data were statistically evaluated by one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA), statistical significance was described at p < 0.05 and data were compared with their non-exposed controls. Magnetic intensity, frequency and exposure time of ELF-EMFs changed the characteristic responses for both microorganisms. Samples exposed to ELF-EMF showed a statistically significant decrease compared to their controls in colony forming capability, especially at long exposure times. An exposure to 4 mT-20 Hz ELF-EMF of 6 h produced maximum inhibition of CFU compared to their controls for both microorganisms (95.2% for S. aureus and 85% for E. coli).

Aerobic Exercise Training in Post-Polio Syndrome: Process Evaluation of a Randomized Controlled Trial

PubMed Central

Voorn, Eric L.; Koopman, Fieke S.; Brehm, Merel A.; Beelen, Anita; de Haan, Arnold; Gerrits, Karin H. L.; Nollet, Frans

2016-01-01

Objective To explore reasons for the lack of efficacy of a high intensity aerobic exercise program in post-polio syndrome (PPS) on cardiorespiratory fitness by evaluating adherence to the training program and effects on muscle function. Design A process evaluation using data from an RCT. Patients Forty-four severely fatigued individuals with PPS were randomized to exercise therapy (n = 22) or usual care (n = 22). Methods Participants in the exercise group were instructed to exercise 3 times weekly for 4 months on a bicycle ergometer (60–70% heart rate reserve). Results The attendance rate was high (median 89%). None of the participants trained within the target heart rate range during >75% of the designated time. Instead, participants exercised at lower intensities, though still around the anaerobic threshold (AT) most of the time. Muscle function did not improve in the exercise group. Conclusion Our results suggest that severely fatigued individuals with PPS cannot adhere to a high intensity aerobic exercise program on a cycle ergometer. Despite exercise intensities around the AT, lower extremity muscle function nor cardiorespiratory fitness improved. Improving the aerobic capacity in PPS is difficult through exercise primarily focusing on the lower extremities, and may require a more individualized approach, including the use of other large muscle groups instead. Trial Registration Netherlands National Trial Register NTR1371 PMID:27419388

Attribution of extreme rainfall from Hurricane Harvey, August 2017

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan; van der Wiel, Karin; Sebastian, Antonia; Singh, Roop; Arrighi, Julie; Otto, Friederike; Haustein, Karsten; Li, Sihan; Vecchi, Gabriel; Cullen, Heidi

2017-12-01

During August 25-30, 2017, Hurricane Harvey stalled over Texas and caused extreme precipitation, particularly over Houston and the surrounding area on August 26-28. This resulted in extensive flooding with over 80 fatalities and large economic costs. It was an extremely rare event: the return period of the highest observed three-day precipitation amount, 1043.4 mm 3dy-1 at Baytown, is more than 9000 years (97.5% one-sided confidence interval) and return periods exceeded 1000 yr (750 mm 3dy-1) over a large area in the current climate. Observations since 1880 over the region show a clear positive trend in the intensity of extreme precipitation of between 12% and 22%, roughly two times the increase of the moisture holding capacity of the atmosphere expected for 1 °C warming according to the Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) relation. This would indicate that the moisture flux was increased by both the moisture content and stronger winds or updrafts driven by the heat of condensation of the moisture. We also analysed extreme rainfall in the Houston area in three ensembles of 25 km resolution models. The first also shows 2 × CC scaling, the second 1 × CC scaling and the third did not have a realistic representation of extreme rainfall on the Gulf Coast. Extrapolating these results to the 2017 event, we conclude that global warming made the precipitation about 15% (8%-19%) more intense, or equivalently made such an event three (1.5-5) times more likely. This analysis makes clear that extreme rainfall events along the Gulf Coast are on the rise. And while fortifying Houston to fully withstand the impact of an event as extreme as Hurricane Harvey may not be economically feasible, it is critical that information regarding the increasing risk of extreme rainfall events in general should be part of the discussion about future improvements to Houston’s flood protection system.

Upper-extremity functional electric stimulation-assisted exercises on a workstation in the subacute phase of stroke recovery.

PubMed

Kowalczewski, Jan; Gritsenko, Valeriya; Ashworth, Nigel; Ellaway, Peter; Prochazka, Arthur

2007-07-01

To test the efficacy of functional electric stimulation (FES)-assisted exercise therapy (FES-ET) on a workstation in the subacute phase of recovery from a stroke. Single-blind, randomly controlled comparison of high- and low-intensity treatment. Laboratory in a rehabilitation hospital. Nineteen stroke survivors (10 men, 9 women; mean age +/- standard deviation, 60.6+/-5.8y), with upper-extremity hemiplegia (mean poststroke time, 48+/-17d). The main inclusion criteria were: stroke occurred within 3 months of onset of trial and resulted in severe upper-limb dysfunction, and FES produced adequate hand opening. An FES stimulator and an exercise workstation with instrumented objects were used by 2 groups to perform specific motor tasks with their affected upper extremity. Ten subjects in the high-intensity FES-ET group received FES-ET for 1 hour a day on 15 to 20 consecutive workdays. Nine subjects in the low-intensity FES-ET group received 15 minutes of sensory electric stimulation 4 days a week and on the fifth day they received 1 hour of FES-ET. Primary outcome measure included the Wolf Motor Function Test (WMFT). Secondary outcome measures included the Motor Activity Log (MAL), the upper-extremity portion of the Fugl-Meyer Assessment (FMA), and the combined kinematic score (CKS) derived from workstation measurements. The WMFT, MAL, and FMA were used to assess function in the absence of FES whereas CKS was used to evaluate function assisted by FES. Improvements in the WMFT and CKS were significantly greater in the high-intensity group (post-treatment effect size, .95) than the low-intensity group (post-treatment effect size, 1.3). The differences in MAL and FMA were not statistically significant. Subjects performing high-intensity FES-ET showed significantly greater improvements on the WMFT than those performing low-intensity FES-ET. However, this was not reflected in subjects' self-assessments (MAL) or in their FMA scores, so the clinical significance of the result is open to debate. The CKS data suggest that high-intensity FES-ET may be advantageous in neuroprosthetic applications.

Acute neuroprotective effects of extremely low-frequency electromagnetic fields after traumatic brain injury in rats.

PubMed

Yang, Yang; Li, Ling; Wang, Yan-Gang; Fei, Zhou; Zhong, Jun; Wei, Li-Zhou; Long, Qian-Fa; Liu, Wei-Ping

2012-05-10

Traumatic brain injury commonly has a result of a short window of opportunity between the period of initial brain injury and secondary brain injury, which provides protective strategies and can reduce damages of brain due to secondary brain injury. Previous studies have reported neuroprotective effects of extremely low-frequency electromagnetic fields. However, the effects of extremely low-frequency electromagnetic fields on neural damage after traumatic brain injury have not been reported yet. The present study aims to investigate effects of extremely low-frequency electromagnetic fields on neuroprotection after traumatic brain injury. Male Sprague-Dawley rats were used for the model of lateral fluid percussion injury, which were placed in non-electromagnetic fields and 15 Hz (Hertz) electromagnetic fields with intensities of 1 G (Gauss), 3 G and 5 G. At various time points (ranging from 0.5 to 30 h) after lateral fluid percussion injury, rats were treated with kainic acid (administered by intraperitoneal injection) to induce apoptosis in hippocampal cells. The results were as follows: (1) the expression of hypoxia-inducible factor-1α was dramatically decreased during the neuroprotective time window. (2) The kainic acid-induced apoptosis in the hippocampus was significantly decreased in rats exposed to electromagnetic fields. (3) Electromagnetic fields exposure shortened the escape time in water maze test. (4) Electromagnetic fields exposure accelerated the recovery of the blood-brain barrier after brain injury. These findings revealed that extremely low-frequency electromagnetic fields significantly prolong the window of opportunity for brain protection and enhance the intensity of neuroprotection after traumatic brain injury. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Characterization of extreme air-sea turbulent fluxes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gulev, Sergey; Belyaev, Konstantin

2017-04-01

Extreme ocean-atmosphere turbulent fluxes play a critical role in the convective processes in the mid and subpolar latitudes and may also affect a variety of atmospheric processes, such as generation and re-intensification of extreme cyclones in the areas of the mid latitude storm tracks. From the ocean dynamics perspective, specifically for quantifying extreme vertical mixing, characterization of the extreme fluxes requires, besides estimation of the extreme events, also consideration of the relative extremeness of surface fluxes and their timing, e.g. the duration of periods of high surface fluxes. In order to comprehensively characterize extreme turbulent fluxes at sea surface we propose a formalism based upon probability density distributions of surface turbulent fluxes and flux-related variables. Individual absolute flux extremes were derived using Modified Fisher-Tippett (MFT) distribution of turbulent fluxes. Then, we extend this distribution to the fractional distribution, characterizing the fraction of time-integrated turbulent heat flux provided by the fluxes exceeding a given percentile. Finally, we consider the time durations during which fluxes of a given intensity provide extreme accumulations of heat loss from the surface. For estimation of these characteristics of surface fluxes we use fluxes recomputed from the state variables available from modern era reanalyses (ERA-Interim, MERRA and CFSR) for the period from 1979 onwards. Applications of the formalism to the VOS (Voluntary Observing Ship) - based surface fluxes are also considered. We discuss application of the new metrics of mesoscale and synoptic variability of surface fluxes to the dynamics of mixed layer depth in the North Atlantic.

Urbanization Induces Nonstationarity in Extreme Rainfall Characteristics over Contiguous United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, J.; Paimazumder, D.; Mohanty, M. P.; Ghosh, S.; Karmakar, S.

2017-12-01

The statistical assumption of stationarity in hydrologic extreme time/event series has been relied heavily in frequency analysis. However, due to the perceivable impacts of climate change, urbanization and land use pattern, assumption of stationarity in hydrologic time series will draw erroneous results, which in turn may affect the policy and decision-making. Also, it may no longer be reasonable to model rainfall extremes as a stationary process, yet nearly all-existing infrastructure design, water resource planning methods assume that historical extreme rainfall events will remain unchanged in the future. Therefore, a comprehensive multivariate nonstationary frequency analysis has been conducted for the CONUS to identify the precipitation characteristics (intensity, duration and depth) responsible for significant nonstationarity. We use 0.250 resolution of precipitation data for a period of 1948-2006, in a Generalized Additive Model for Location, Scale and Shape (GAMLSS) framework. A cluster of 74 GAMLSS models has been developed by considering nonstationarity in different combinations of distribution parameters through different regression techniques, and the best-fit model is further applied for bivariate analysis. Next, four demographic variables i.e. population density, housing unit, low income population and population below poverty line, have been utilized to identify the urbanizing regions through developing urbanization index. Furthermore to strengthen the analysis, Land cover map for 1992, 2001 and 2006 have been utilized to identify the location with the high change in impervious surface. The results show significant differences in the 50- and 100-year intensity, volume and duration estimated under the both stationary and nonstationary condition in urbanizing regions. Further results exhibit that rainfall duration has been decreased while, rainfall volume has been increased under nonstationary condition, which indicates increasing flood potential of rainfall events. The present study facilitate the understanding of anthropogenic climate change to extreme rainfall characteristics i.e. intensity, volume and duration, which could be utilized in designing flood control structure through a proposed nonstationary modeling.

Nonstationarity in timing of extreme precipitation across China and impact of tropical cyclones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gu, Xihui; Zhang, Qiang; Singh, Vijay P.; Shi, Peijun

2017-02-01

This study examines the seasonality and nonstationarity in the timing of extreme precipitation obtained by annual maximum (AM) sampling and peak-over-threshold (POT) sampling techniques using circular statistics. Daily precipitation data from 728 stations with record length of at least 55 years across China were analyzed. In general, the average seasonality is subject mainly to summer season (June-July - August), which is potentially related to East Asian monsoon and Indian monsoon activities. The strength of precipitation seasonality varied across China with the highest strength being in northeast, north, and central-north China; whereas the weakest seasonality was found in southeast China. There are three seasonality types: circular uniform, reflective symmetric, and asymmetric. However, the circular uniform seasonality of extreme precipitation was not detected at stations across China. The asymmetric distribution was observed mainly in southeast China, and the reflective distribution of precipitation extremes was also identified the other regions besides the above-mentioned regions. Furthermore, a strong signal of nonstationarity in the seasonality was detected at half of the weather stations considered in the study, exhibiting a significant shift in the timing of extreme precipitation, and also significant trends in the average and strength of seasonality. Seasonal vapor flux and related delivery pathways and also tropical cyclones (TCs) are most probably the driving factors for the shifts or changes in the seasonality of extreme precipitation across China. Timing of precipitation extremes is closely related to seasonal shifts of floods and droughts and which means much for management of agricultural irrigation and water resources management. This study sheds new light on nonstationarity in timing of precipitation extremes which differs from existing ones which focused on precipitation extremes from perspective of magnitude and intensity.

Strong-field plasmonic photoemission in the mid-IR at <1 GW/cm² intensity.

PubMed

Teichmann, S M; Rácz, P; Ciappina, M F; Pérez-Hernández, J A; Thai, A; Fekete, J; Elezzabi, A Y; Veisz, L; Biegert, J; Dombi, P

2015-01-12

We investigated nonlinear photoemission from plasmonic films with femtosecond, mid-infrared pulses at 3.1 μm wavelength. Transition between regimes of multi-photon-induced and tunneling emission is demonstrated at an unprecedentedly low intensity of <1 GW/cm(2). Thereby, strong-field nanophysics can be accessed at extremely low intensities by exploiting nanoscale plasmonic field confinement, enhancement and ponderomotive wavelength scaling at the same time. Results agree well with quantum mechanical modelling. Our scheme demonstrates an alternative paradigm and regime in strong-field physics.

A laboratory evaluation of the influence of weighing gauges performance on extreme events statistics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Colli, Matteo; Lanza, Luca

2014-05-01

The effects of inaccurate ground based rainfall measurements on the information derived from rain records is yet not much documented in the literature. La Barbera et al. (2002) investigated the propagation of the systematic mechanic errors of tipping bucket type rain gauges (TBR) into the most common statistics of rainfall extremes, e.g. in the assessment of the return period T (or the related non-exceedance probability) of short-duration/high intensity events. Colli et al. (2012) and Lanza et al. (2012) extended the analysis to a 22-years long precipitation data set obtained from a virtual weighing type gauge (WG). The artificial WG time series was obtained basing on real precipitation data measured at the meteo-station of the University of Genova and modelling the weighing gauge output as a linear dynamic system. This approximation was previously validated with dedicated laboratory experiments and is based on the evidence that the accuracy of WG measurements under real world/time varying rainfall conditions is mainly affected by the dynamic response of the gauge (as revealed during the last WMO Field Intercomparison of Rainfall Intensity Gauges). The investigation is now completed by analyzing actual measurements performed by two common weighing gauges, the OTT Pluvio2 load-cell gauge and the GEONOR T-200 vibrating-wire gauge, since both these instruments demonstrated very good performance under previous constant flow rate calibration efforts. A laboratory dynamic rainfall generation system has been arranged and validated in order to simulate a number of precipitation events with variable reference intensities. Such artificial events were generated basing on real world rainfall intensity (RI) records obtained from the meteo-station of the University of Genova so that the statistical structure of the time series is preserved. The influence of the WG RI measurements accuracy on the associated extreme events statistics is analyzed by comparing the original intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves with those obtained from the measuring of the simulated rain events. References: Colli, M., L.G. Lanza, and P. La Barbera, (2012). Weighing gauges measurement errors and the design rainfall for urban scale applications, 9th International Workshop On Precipitation In Urban Areas, 6-9 December, 2012, St. Moritz, Switzerland Lanza, L.G., M. Colli, and P. La Barbera (2012). On the influence of rain gauge performance on extreme events statistics: the case of weighing gauges, EGU General Assembly 2012, April 22th, Wien, Austria La Barbera, P., L.G. Lanza, and L. Stagi, (2002). Influence of systematic mechanical errors of tipping-bucket rain gauges on the statistics of rainfall extremes. Water Sci. Techn., 45(2), 1-9.

Assessment of the Long Term Trends in Extreme Heat Events and the Associated Health Impacts in the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bell, J.; Rennie, J.; Kunkel, K.; Herring, S.; Cullen, H. M.

2017-12-01

Land surface air temperature products have been essential for monitoring the evolution of the climate system. Before a temperature dataset is included in such reports, it is important that non-climatic influences be removed or changed so the dataset is considered homogenous. These inhomogeneities include changes in station location, instrumentation and observing practices. While many homogenized products exist on the monthly time scale, few daily products exist, due to the complication of removing breakpoints that are truly inhomogeneous rather than solely by chance (for example, sharp changes due to synoptic conditions). Recently, a sub monthly homogenized dataset has been developed using data and software provided by NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI). Homogeneous daily data are useful for identification and attribution of extreme heat events over a period of time. Projections of increasing temperatures are expected to result in corresponding increases in the frequency, duration, and intensity of extreme heat events. It is also established that extreme heat events can have significant public health impacts, including short-term increases in mortality and morbidity. In addition, it can exacerbate chronic health conditions in vulnerable populations, including renal and cardiovascular issues. To understand how heat events impact a specific population, it will be important to connect observations on the duration and intensity of extreme heat events with health impacts data including insurance claims and hospital admissions data. This presentation will explain the methodology to identify extreme heat events, provide a climatology of heat event onset, length and severity, and explore a case study of an anomalous heat event with available health data.

Global intensification in observed short-duration rainfall extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fowler, H. J.; Lewis, E.; Guerreiro, S.; Blenkinsop, S.; Barbero, R.; Westra, S.; Lenderink, G.; Li, X.

2017-12-01

Extreme rainfall events are expected to intensify with a warming climate and this is currently driving extensive research. While daily rainfall extremes are widely thought to have increased globally in recent decades, changes in rainfall extremes on shorter timescales, often associated with flash flooding, have not been documented at global scale due to surface observational limitations and the lack of a global sub-daily rainfall database. The access to and use of such data remains a challenge. For the first time, we have synthesized across multiple data sources providing gauge-based sub-daily rainfall observations across the globe over the last 6 decades. This forms part of the INTENSE project (part of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP)'s Grand Challenge on 'Understanding and Predicting Weather and Climate Extremes' and the Global Water and Energy Exchanges (GEWEX) Hydroclimate Project cross-cut on sub-daily rainfall). A set of global hydroclimatic indices have been produced based upon stakeholder recommendations including indices that describe maximum rainfall totals and timing, the intensity, duration and frequency of storms, frequency of storms above specific thresholds and information about the diurnal cycle. This will provide a unique global data resource on sub-daily precipitation whose derived indices will be freely available to the wider scientific community. Because of the physical connection between global warming and the moisture budget, we also sought to infer long-term changes in sub-daily rainfall extremes contingent on global mean temperature. Whereas the potential influence of global warming is uncertain at regional scales, where natural variability dominates, aggregating surface stations across parts of the world may increase the global warming-induced signal. Changes in terms of annual maximum rainfall across various resolutions ranging from 1-h to 24-h are presented and discussed.

Are satellite products good proxies for gauge precipitation over Singapore?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hur, Jina; Raghavan, Srivatsan V.; Nguyen, Ngoc Son; Liong, Shie-Yui

2018-05-01

The uncertainties in two high-resolution satellite precipitation products (TRMM 3B42 v7.0 and GSMaP v5.222) were investigated by comparing them against rain gauge observations over Singapore on sub-daily scales. The satellite-borne precipitation products are assessed in terms of seasonal, monthly and daily variations, the diurnal cycle, and extreme precipitation over a 10-year period (2000-2010). Results indicate that the uncertainties in extreme precipitation is higher in GSMaP than in TRMM, possibly due to the issues such as satellite merging algorithm, the finer spatio-temporal scale of high intensity precipitation, and the swath time of satellite. Such discrepancies between satellite-borne and gauge-based precipitations at sub-daily scale can possibly lead to distorting analysis of precipitation characteristics and/or application model results. Overall, both satellite products are unable to capture the observed extremes and provide a good agreement with observations only at coarse time scales. Also, the satellite products agree well on the late afternoon maximum and heavier rainfall of gauge-based data in winter season when the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) is located over Singapore. However, they do not reproduce the gauge-observed diurnal cycle in summer. The disagreement in summer could be attributed to the dominant satellite overpass time (about 14:00 SGT) later than the diurnal peak time (about 09:00 SGT) of gauge precipitation. From the analyses of extreme precipitation indices, it is inferred that both satellite datasets tend to overestimate the light rain and frequency but underestimate high intensity precipitation and the length of dry spells. This study on quantification of their uncertainty is useful in many aspects especially that these satellite products stand scrutiny over places where there are no good ground data to be compared against. This has serious implications on climate studies as in model evaluations and in particular, climate model simulated future projections, when information on precipitation extremes need to be reliable as they are highly crucial for adaptation and mitigation.

Forecasts and Warnings of Extreme Solar Storms at the Sun

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lundstedt, H.

2015-12-01

The most pressing space weather forecasts and warnings are those of the most intense solar flares and coronal mass ejections. However, in trying to develop these forecasts and warnings, we are confronted to many fundamental questions. Some of those are: How to define an observable measure for an extreme solar storm? How extreme can a solar storm become and how long is the build up time? How to make forecasts and warnings? Many have contributed to clarifying these general questions. In his presentation we will describe our latest results on the topological complexity of magnetic fields and the use of SDO SHARP parameters. The complexity concept will then be used to discuss the second question. Finally we will describe probability estimates of extreme solar storms.

Analysis of long-term changes in extreme climatic indices: a case study of the Mediterranean climate, Marmara Region, Turkey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abbasnia, Mohsen; Toros, Hüseyin

2018-05-01

This study aimed to analyze extreme temperature and precipitation indices at seven stations in the Marmara Region of Turkey for the period 1961-2016. The trend of temperature indices showed that the warm-spell duration and the numbers of summer days, tropical nights, warm nights, and warm days have increased, while the cold-spell duration and number of ice days, cool nights, and cool days have decreased across the Marmara Region. Additionally, the diurnal temperature range has slightly increased at most of the stations. A majority of stations have shown significant warming trends for warm days and warm nights throughout the study area, whereas warm extremes and night-time based temperature indices have shown stronger trends compared to cold extremes and day-time indices. The analysis of precipitation indices has mostly shown increasing trends in consecutive dry days and increasing trends in annual rainfall, rainfall intensity for inland and urban stations, especially for stations in Sariyer and Edirne, which are affected by a fast rate of urbanization. Overall, a large proportion of study stations have experienced an increase in annual precipitation and heavy precipitation events, although there was a low percentage of results that was significant. Therefore, it is expected that the rainfall events will tend to become shorter and more intense, the occurrence of temperature extremes will become more pronounced in favor of hotter events, and there will be an increase in the atmospheric moisture content over the Marmara Region. This provides regional evidence for the importance of ongoing research on climate change.

How do extreme streamflow due to hurricane IRMA compare during 1938-2017 in South Eastern US?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anandhi, A.

2017-12-01

The question related to Irma, Harvey, Maria, and other hurricanes is: are hurricane more frequent and intense than they have been in the past. Recent hurricanes were unusually strong hitting the US Coastline or territories as a category 4 or 5, dropping unusually large amounts of precipitation on the affected areas creating extreme high-flow events in rivers and streams in affected areas. The objective of the study is to determine how extreme are streamflows from recent hurricanes (e.g. IRMA) when compared to streamflow's during 1938-2017 time-period. Additionally, in this study, the extreme precipitations are also compared during IRMA. Extreme high flows are selected from Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration (IHA). They are distributions, timing, duration, frequency, magnitude, pulses, and days of extreme events in rivers of the southeastern United States and Gulf of Mexico Hydrologic Region—03. Streamflow data from 30 stations in the region with at least 79 years of record (1938-2017) are used. Historical precipitation changes is obtained from meta-analysis of published literature. Our preliminary results indicate the extremeness of streamflow from recent hurricanes vary with the IHA indicator selected. Some potential implications of these extreme events on the region's ecosystem are also discussed using causal chains and loops.

Changes in intensity of precipitation extremes in Romania on very hight temporal scale and implications on the validity of the Clausius-Clapeyron relation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Busuioc, Aristita; Baciu, Madalina; Breza, Traian; Dumitrescu, Alexandru; Stoica, Cerasela; Baghina, Nina

2016-04-01

Many observational, theoretical and based on climate model simulation studies suggested that warmer climates lead to more intense precipitation events, even when the total annual precipitation is slightly reduced. In this way, it was suggested that extreme precipitation events may increase at Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) rate under global warming and constraint of constant relative humidity. However, recent studies show that the relationship between extreme rainfall intensity and atmospheric temperature is much more complex than would be suggested by the CC relationship and is mainly dependent on precipitation temporal resolution, region, storm type and whether the analysis is conducted on storm events rather than fixed data. The present study presents the dependence between the very hight temporal scale extreme rainfall intensity and daily temperatures, with respect to the verification of the CC relation. To solve this objective, the analysis is conducted on rainfall event rather than fixed interval using the rainfall data based on graphic records including intensities (mm/min.) calculated over each interval with permanent intensity per minute. The annual interval with available a such data (April to October) is considered at 5 stations over the interval 1950-2007. For Bucuresti-Filaret station the analysis is extended over the longer interval (1898-2007). For each rainfall event, the maximum intensity (mm/min.) is retained and these time series are considered for the further analysis (abbreviated in the following as IMAX). The IMAX data were divided based on the daily mean temperature into bins 2oC - wide. The bins with less than 100 values were excluded. The 90th, 99th and 99.9th percentiles were computed from the binned data using the empirical distribution and their variability has been compared to the CC scaling (e.g. exponential relation given by a 7% increase per temperature degree rise). The results show a dependence close to double the CC relation for temperatures less than ~ 220C and negative scaling rates for higher temperatures. This behaviour is similar for all the 5 analysed stations over the common interval 1950-2007. This scaling is more exactly for the 90th percentile, while for the higher percentiles the rainfall intensity in response to warming exceeds sometimes the CC rate. For Bucuresti-Filaret station, the results are similar over a longer interval (1898-2007) showing that these findings are robust. Similar techniques has been previously applied to the hourly rainfall intensities recorded at 9 stations (including the 5 ones) and the results are slightly different: the 90th percentile shows dependence close to the CC relation for all temperatures; the 99th and 99.9th percentiles exhibit rates close to double the CC rate for temperatures between ~ 100C and ~ 220C and negative scaling rates for higher temperatures. In conclusion, these results show that the dependence between the extreme precipitation intensity and atmospheric temperature in Romania is mainly dependent on the temporal precipitation resolution and the degree of the extreme precipitation event (moderate or stronger); these findings are mainly in agreenment with the conclusions presented by previous international studies (mentioned above), with some regional specific features, showing the importance of the regional studies. The results presented is this study were funded by the Executive Agency for Higher Education, Research, Development and Innovation Funding (UEFISCDI) through the research project CLIMHYDEX, "Changes in climate extremes and associated impact in hydrological events in Romania", code PNII-ID-2011-2-0073 (http://climhydex.meteoromania.ro).

Fourier transform spectrometer observations of solar carbon monoxide. III - Time-resolved spectroscopy of the Delta V = 1 bands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ayres, Thomas R.; Brault, James W.

1990-11-01

Time series of the 2100/cm Delta v = 1 absorption bands of CO at the center of the solar disk and at the extreme limb have been recorded by Fourier transform spectrometer. The photospheric 5-min oscillation appears prominently at sun center. The peak-to-peak brightness temperature amplitude is roughly 300 K, and the peak-to-peak Doppler shift is roughly 1100 m/s. The 70 deg phase lag of maximum core intensity with respect to maximum redshift for the strongest Delta v = 1 absorptions is less than the 90 deg expected in the adiabatic limit. No dominant four-minute signal in the line intensity like that reported by Deming et al. (1984, 1986, and 1987) is found, nor is evidence for extreme fluctuations on short time scales like those proposed by Kalkofen et al. (1984). The strong Delta v = 1 lines exhibit systematic Doppler shifts of less than about 1 km/s, contrary to the predictions of transonic redshifts if the CO 'clouds' are associated with a dynamic cooling phase of the Ca II 'cell flashes.'

Photodissociation of aligned CH3I and C6H3F2I molecules probed with time-resolved Coulomb explosion imaging by site-selective extreme ultraviolet ionization

PubMed Central

Amini, Kasra; Savelyev, Evgeny; Brauße, Felix; Berrah, Nora; Bomme, Cédric; Brouard, Mark; Burt, Michael; Christensen, Lauge; Düsterer, Stefan; Erk, Benjamin; Höppner, Hauke; Kierspel, Thomas; Krecinic, Faruk; Lauer, Alexandra; Lee, Jason W. L.; Müller, Maria; Müller, Erland; Mullins, Terence; Redlin, Harald; Schirmel, Nora; Thøgersen, Jan; Techert, Simone; Toleikis, Sven; Treusch, Rolf; Trippel, Sebastian; Ulmer, Anatoli; Vallance, Claire; Wiese, Joss; Johnsson, Per; Küpper, Jochen; Rudenko, Artem; Rouzée, Arnaud; Stapelfeldt, Henrik; Rolles, Daniel; Boll, Rebecca

2018-01-01

We explore time-resolved Coulomb explosion induced by intense, extreme ultraviolet (XUV) femtosecond pulses from a free-electron laser as a method to image photo-induced molecular dynamics in two molecules, iodomethane and 2,6-difluoroiodobenzene. At an excitation wavelength of 267 nm, the dominant reaction pathway in both molecules is neutral dissociation via cleavage of the carbon–iodine bond. This allows investigating the influence of the molecular environment on the absorption of an intense, femtosecond XUV pulse and the subsequent Coulomb explosion process. We find that the XUV probe pulse induces local inner-shell ionization of atomic iodine in dissociating iodomethane, in contrast to non-selective ionization of all photofragments in difluoroiodobenzene. The results reveal evidence of electron transfer from methyl and phenyl moieties to a multiply charged iodine ion. In addition, indications for ultrafast charge rearrangement on the phenyl radical are found, suggesting that time-resolved Coulomb explosion imaging is sensitive to the localization of charge in extended molecules. PMID:29430482

Photodissociation of aligned CH3I and C6H3F2I molecules probed with time-resolved Coulomb explosion imaging by site-selective extreme ultraviolet ionization.

PubMed

Amini, Kasra; Savelyev, Evgeny; Brauße, Felix; Berrah, Nora; Bomme, Cédric; Brouard, Mark; Burt, Michael; Christensen, Lauge; Düsterer, Stefan; Erk, Benjamin; Höppner, Hauke; Kierspel, Thomas; Krecinic, Faruk; Lauer, Alexandra; Lee, Jason W L; Müller, Maria; Müller, Erland; Mullins, Terence; Redlin, Harald; Schirmel, Nora; Thøgersen, Jan; Techert, Simone; Toleikis, Sven; Treusch, Rolf; Trippel, Sebastian; Ulmer, Anatoli; Vallance, Claire; Wiese, Joss; Johnsson, Per; Küpper, Jochen; Rudenko, Artem; Rouzée, Arnaud; Stapelfeldt, Henrik; Rolles, Daniel; Boll, Rebecca

2018-01-01

We explore time-resolved Coulomb explosion induced by intense, extreme ultraviolet (XUV) femtosecond pulses from a free-electron laser as a method to image photo-induced molecular dynamics in two molecules, iodomethane and 2,6-difluoroiodobenzene. At an excitation wavelength of 267 nm, the dominant reaction pathway in both molecules is neutral dissociation via cleavage of the carbon-iodine bond. This allows investigating the influence of the molecular environment on the absorption of an intense, femtosecond XUV pulse and the subsequent Coulomb explosion process. We find that the XUV probe pulse induces local inner-shell ionization of atomic iodine in dissociating iodomethane, in contrast to non-selective ionization of all photofragments in difluoroiodobenzene. The results reveal evidence of electron transfer from methyl and phenyl moieties to a multiply charged iodine ion. In addition, indications for ultrafast charge rearrangement on the phenyl radical are found, suggesting that time-resolved Coulomb explosion imaging is sensitive to the localization of charge in extended molecules.

Development in pain and neurologic complaints after whiplash: a 1-year prospective study.

PubMed

Kasch, Helge; Bach, Flemming W; Stengaard-Pedersen, Kristian; Jensen, Troels S

2003-03-11

To prospectively examine the course of pain and other neurologic complaints in patients with acute whiplash injury and in controls with acute ankle injury. Patients with acute whiplash (n = 141) and ankle-injured controls (n = 40) were consecutively sampled, and underwent interview and examination after 1 week and 1, 3, 6, and 12 months. Outcome measures were pain intensity, pain frequency, and associated symptoms. Initial overall pain intensity above lower extremities (pain in neck, head, shoulder-arm, and low back) was similar in patients with whiplash (median Visual Analogue Scale [VAS](0-100) of 20 [25th and 75th percentile, 4, 39]) and ankle-injured controls (median VAS(0-100) of 15 [5, 34]). Whiplash-injured patients reported median overall VAS(0-100) pain intensity above lower extremities of 23 (12, 40) after 11 days and 14 (12, 40) after 1 year. Controls reported pain intensity of 0 (0, 4) after 12 days and 0 (0, 9) after 1 year. Reported overall pain frequency above lower extremities was 96% after 11 days and 74% after 1 year in whiplash-injured patients and 33% after 12 days and 47% after 1 year in controls. Associated neurologic symptoms were two to three times more common after whiplash injury. Correlation was found between pain intensity and associated symptoms in whiplash-injured patients but not controls. Pain occurs with high frequency but low intensity after whiplash and ankle injury. Associated neurologic symptoms were not correlated to pain in ankle-injured controls, but were correlated to pain in patients with whiplash injury. Persistent symptoms in whiplash-injured patients may be caused by both specific neck injury-related factors and nonspecific post-traumatic reactions. Disability was only encountered in the whiplash group.

Extreme-ultraviolet-initiated high-order harmonic generation in Ar+

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clarke, D. D. A.; van der Hart, H. W.; Brown, A. C.

2018-02-01

We employ the R matrix with time dependence method to investigate extreme-ultraviolet-initiated high-order harmonic generation (XIHHG) in Ar+. Using a combination of extreme-ultraviolet (XUV, 92 nm, 3 ×1012W cm-2 ) and time-delayed, infrared (IR, 800 nm, 3 ×1014W cm-2 ) laser pulses, we demonstrate that control over both the mechanism and timing of ionization can afford significant enhancements in the yield of plateau and subthreshold harmonics alike. The presence of the XUV pulse is also shown to alter the relative contribution of different electron emission pathways. Manifestation of the Ar+ electronic structure is found in the appearance of a pronounced Cooper minimum. Interferences among the outer-valence 3 p and inner-valence 3 s electrons are found to incur only a minor suppression of the harmonic intensities, at least for the present combination of XUV and IR laser light. Additionally, the dependence of the XIHHG efficiency on time delay is discussed and rationalized with the aid of classical trajectory simulations.

Ongoing climatic extreme dynamics in Siberia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gordov, E. P.; Shulgina, T. M.; Okladnikov, I. G.; Titov, A. G.

2013-12-01

Ongoing global climate changes accompanied by the restructuring of global processes in the atmosphere and biosphere are strongly pronounced in the Northern Eurasia regions, especially in Siberia. Recent investigations indicate not only large changes in averaged climatic characteristics (Kabanov and Lykosov, 2006, IPCC, 2007; Groisman and Gutman, 2012), but more frequent occurrence and stronger impacts of climatic extremes are reported as well (Bulygina et al., 2007; IPCC, 2012: Climate Extremes, 2012; Oldenborh et al., 2013). This paper provides the results of daily temperature and precipitation extreme dynamics in Siberia for the last three decades (1979 - 2012). Their seasonal dynamics is assessed using 10th and 90th percentile-based threshold indices that characterize frequency, intensity and duration of climatic extremes. To obtain the geographical pattern of these variations with high spatial resolution, the sub-daily temperature data from ECMWF ERA-Interim reanalysis and daily precipitation amounts from APHRODITE JMA dataset were used. All extreme indices and linear trend coefficients have been calculated using web-GIS information-computational platform Climate (http://climate.scert.ru/) developed to support collaborative multidisciplinary investigations of regional climatic changes and their impacts (Gordov et al., 2012). Obtained results show that seasonal dynamics of daily temperature extremes is asymmetric for tails of cold and warm temperature extreme distributions. Namely, the intensity of warming during cold nights is higher than during warm nights, especially at high latitudes of Siberia. The similar dynamics is observed for cold and warm day-time temperatures. Slight summer cooling was observed in the central part of Siberia. It is associated with decrease in warm temperature extremes. In the southern Siberia in winter, we also observe some cooling mostly due to strengthening of the cold temperature extremes. Changes in daily precipitation extremes are spatially inhomogeneous. The largest increase in frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation is observed in the north of East Siberia. Negative trends related to precipitation amount decrease are found in the central West Siberia and in the south of East Siberia. The authors acknowledge partial financial support for this research from the Russian Foundation for Basic Research projects (11-05-01190 and 13-05-12034), SB RAS Integration project 131 and project VIII.80.2.1., the Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation contract 8345 and grant of the President of Russian Federation (decree 181).

Imaging of biophoton emission from electrostimulated skin acupuncture point jg4: effect of light enhancers.

PubMed

Slawinski, Janusz; Gorski, Zbigniew

2008-05-01

Using an ultrasensitive CCD camera, an extremely low light intensity from the acupuncture-sensitive point JG4 at the left hand was recorded. As the intensity of the light was very weak and the time of electrostimulation exceeded the recommended period, the quality of biophoton images was poor. Chemiluminescent and fluorescent hydrophilic, hydrophobic and amphyphilic molecular probes were used to: (i) ensure penetration of probes into skin, (ii) enhance the intensity of BP emission, (iii) shorten time and (iv) obtain information about mechanisms of biophotons generation in EAP-sensitive points and channels. The results obtained partially fulfilled expectations and indicate on the necessity to elaborate special techniques of probes deposition on the skin.

The effect of an intensive exercise programme on leg function in chronic stroke patients: a pilot study with one-year follow-up.

PubMed

Stock, Roland; Mork, Paul Jarle

2009-09-01

To investigate the effect of two weeks of intensive exercise on leg function in chronic stroke patients and to evaluate the feasibility of an intensive exercise programme in a group setting. Pilot study with one-group pre-test post-test design with two pre-tests and one-year follow-up. Inpatient rehabilitation hospital. Twelve hemiparetic patients completed the intervention. Ten patients participated at one-year follow-up. Six hours of daily intensive exercise for two weeks with focus on weight-shifting towards the affected side and increased use of the affected extremity during functional activities. An insole with nubs in the shoe of the non-paretic limb was used to reinforce weight-shift toward the affected side. Timed Up and Go, Four Square Step Test, gait velocity, gait symmetry and muscle strength in knee and ankle muscles. Maximal gait velocity (P = 0.002) and performance time (seconds) on Timed Up and Go (mean, SD; 12.2, 3.8 vs. 9.4, 3.2) and Four Square Step Test improved from pre- to post-test (P = 0.005). Improvements remained significant at follow-up. Preferred gait velocity and gait symmetry remained unchanged. Knee extensor (P<50.009) and flexor (P<50.001) strength increased bilaterally from pre- to post-test but only knee flexor strength remained significant at follow-up. Ankle dorsi flexor (P = 0.02) and plantar flexor (P<0.001) strength increased on paretic side only (not tested at follow-up). Intensive exercise for lower extremity is feasible in a group setting and was effective in improving ambulatory function, maximal gait velocity and muscle strength in chronic stroke patients. Most improvements persisted at the one-year follow-up.

Quantifying the impact of Teleconnections on Hydrologic Regimes in Texas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhatia, N.; Singh, V. P.; Srivastav, R. K.

2016-12-01

Climate change is being alleged to have led to the increased frequency of extreme flooding events and the resulting damages are severe, especially where the flood-plain population densities are higher. Much research in the field of hydroclimatology is focusing on improving real-time flood forecasting models. Recent studies show that, in the state of Texas, extreme regional floods are actually triggered by abruptly higher precipitation intensities. Such intensities are further driven by sea-surface temperature and pressure anomalies, defined by certain patterns of teleconnections. In this study, climate variability is defined on the basis of five major Atlantic and Pacific Ocean related teleconnections: (i) Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), (ii) North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), (iii) Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), (iv) Pacific North American Pattern (PNA), and (v) Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). Hydrologic extremes will be modeled using probabilistic distributions. Leave-One-Out-Test (LOOT) will be employed to address the outliers in the extremes, and to eventually obtain the robust correlation coefficient. The variation in the effect of most correlated teleconnection with respect to hydrologic attributes will be investigated for the entire state. This study will attempt to identify potential teleconnection inputs for data-driven hydrologic models under varying climatic conditions.

Intensification of convective extremes driven by cloud-cloud interaction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moseley, Christopher; Hohenegger, Cathy; Berg, Peter; Haerter, Jan O.

2016-10-01

In a changing climate, a key role may be played by the response of convective-type cloud and precipitation to temperature changes. Yet, it is unclear if convective precipitation intensities will increase mainly due to thermodynamic or dynamical processes. Here we perform large eddy simulations of convection by imposing a realistic diurnal cycle of surface temperature. We find convective events to gradually self-organize into larger cloud clusters and those events occurring late in the day to produce the highest precipitation intensities. Tracking rain cells throughout their life cycles, we show that events which result from collisions respond strongly to changes in boundary conditions, such as temperature changes. Conversely, events not resulting from collisions remain largely unaffected by the boundary conditions. Increased surface temperature indeed leads to more interaction between events and stronger precipitation extremes. However, comparable intensification occurs when leaving temperature unchanged but simply granting more time for self-organization. These findings imply that the convective field as a whole acquires a memory of past precipitation and inter-cloud dynamics, driving extremes. For global climate model projections, our results suggest that the interaction between convective clouds must be incorporated to simulate convective extremes and the diurnal cycle more realistically.

Effect of extremely low frequency electromagnetic field on brain histopathology of Caspian Sea Cyprinus carpio.

PubMed

Samiee, Farzaneh; Samiee, Keivandokht

2017-01-01

There is limited research on the effect of electromagnetic field on aquatic organisms, especially freshwater fish species. This study was conducted to evaluate the effect of extremely low frequency electromagnetic field (ELF-EMF) (50 Hz) exposure on brain histopathology of Cyprinus carpio, one of the important species of Caspian Sea with significant economic value. A total of 200 healthy fish were used in this study. They were classified randomly in two groups: sham-exposed group and experimental group, which were exposed to five different magnetic field intensities (0.1, 1, 3, 5, and 7 mT) at two different exposure times (0.5 and 1 h). Histologic results indicate that exposure of C. carpio to artificial ELF-EMF caused severe histopathological changes in the brain at field intensities ≥3 mT leading to brain necrosis. Field intensity and duration of exposure were key parameters in induction of lesion in the brain. Further studies are needed to elucidate exact mechanism of EMF exposure on the brain.

Identifying climate analogues for precipitation extremes for Denmark based on RCM simulations from the ENSEMBLES database.

PubMed

Arnbjerg-Nielsen, K; Funder, S G; Madsen, H

2015-01-01

Climate analogues, also denoted Space-For-Time, may be used to identify regions where the present climatic conditions resemble conditions of a past or future state of another location or region based on robust climate variable statistics in combination with projections of how these statistics change over time. The study focuses on assessing climate analogues for Denmark based on current climate data set (E-OBS) observations as well as the ENSEMBLES database of future climates with the aim of projecting future precipitation extremes. The local present precipitation extremes are assessed by means of intensity-duration-frequency curves for urban drainage design for the relevant locations being France, the Netherlands, Belgium, Germany, the United Kingdom, and Denmark. Based on this approach projected increases of extreme precipitation by 2100 of 9 and 21% are expected for 2 and 10 year return periods, respectively. The results should be interpreted with caution as the best region to represent future conditions for Denmark is the coastal areas of Northern France, for which only little information is available with respect to present precipitation extremes.

Trends in extremes of temperature, dew point, and precipitation from long instrumental series from central Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kürbis, K.; Mudelsee, M.; Tetzlaff, G.; Brázdil, R.

2009-09-01

For the analysis of trends in weather extremes, we introduce a diagnostic index variable, the exceedance product, which combines intensity and frequency of extremes. We separate trends in higher moments from trends in mean or standard deviation and use bootstrap resampling to evaluate statistical significances. The application of the concept of the exceedance product to daily meteorological time series from Potsdam (1893 to 2005) and Prague-Klementinum (1775 to 2004) reveals that extremely cold winters occurred only until the mid-20th century, whereas warm winters show upward trends. These changes were significant in higher moments of the temperature distribution. In contrast, trends in summer temperature extremes (e.g., the 2003 European heatwave) can be explained by linear changes in mean or standard deviation. While precipitation at Potsdam does not show pronounced trends, dew point does exhibit a change from maximum extremes during the 1960s to minimum extremes during the 1970s.

Scaling and clustering effects of extreme precipitation distributions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Qiang; Zhou, Yu; Singh, Vijay P.; Li, Jianfeng

2012-08-01

SummaryOne of the impacts of climate change and human activities on the hydrological cycle is the change in the precipitation structure. Closely related to the precipitation structure are two characteristics: the volume (m) of wet periods (WPs) and the time interval between WPs or waiting time (t). Using daily precipitation data for a period of 1960-2005 from 590 rain gauge stations in China, these two characteristics are analyzed, involving scaling and clustering of precipitation episodes. Our findings indicate that m and t follow similar probability distribution curves, implying that precipitation processes are controlled by similar underlying thermo-dynamics. Analysis of conditional probability distributions shows a significant dependence of m and t on their previous values of similar volumes, and the dependence tends to be stronger when m is larger or t is longer. It indicates that a higher probability can be expected when high-intensity precipitation is followed by precipitation episodes with similar precipitation intensity and longer waiting time between WPs is followed by the waiting time of similar duration. This result indicates the clustering of extreme precipitation episodes and severe droughts or floods are apt to occur in groups.

Nonstationarity RC Workshop Report: Nonstationary Weather Patterns and Extreme Events Informing Design and Planning for Long-Lived Infrastructure

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-11-01

magnitude, intensity, and seasonality of climate. For infrastructure projects, relevant design life often exceeds 30 years—a period of time of...uncertainty about future statistical properties of climate at time and spatial scales required for planning and design purposes. Information...about future statistical properties of climate at time and spatial scales required for planning and design , and for assessing future operational

Hazardous thunderstorm intensification over Lake Victoria

PubMed Central

Thiery, Wim; Davin, Edouard L.; Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Bedka, Kristopher; Lhermitte, Stef; van Lipzig, Nicole P. M.

2016-01-01

Weather extremes have harmful impacts on communities around Lake Victoria, where thousands of fishermen die every year because of intense night-time thunderstorms. Yet how these thunderstorms will evolve in a future warmer climate is still unknown. Here we show that Lake Victoria is projected to be a hotspot of future extreme precipitation intensification by using new satellite-based observations, a high-resolution climate projection for the African Great Lakes and coarser-scale ensemble projections. Land precipitation on the previous day exerts a control on night-time occurrence of extremes on the lake by enhancing atmospheric convergence (74%) and moisture availability (26%). The future increase in extremes over Lake Victoria is about twice as large relative to surrounding land under a high-emission scenario, as only over-lake moisture advection is high enough to sustain Clausius–Clapeyron scaling. Our results highlight a major hazard associated with climate change over East Africa and underline the need for high-resolution projections to assess local climate change. PMID:27658848

Planes, Trains, Automobiles--and Tea Sets: Extremely Intense Interests in Very Young Children

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

DeLoache, Judy S.; Simcock, Gabrielle; Macari, Suzanne

2007-01-01

Some normally developing young children show an intense, passionate interest in a particular category of objects or activities. The present article documents the existence of extremely intense interests that emerge very early in life and establishes some of the basic parameters of the phenomenon. Surveys and interviews with 177 parents revealed…

Adjusting skewness and maximum 0.5 hour intensity in CLIGEN to improve extreme event and sub-daily intensity generation for assessing climate change impacts

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Both measured data and GCM/RCM projections show an general increasing trend in extreme rainfall events as temperature rises in US. Proper simulation of extreme events is particularly important for assessing climate change impacts on soil erosion and hydrology. The objective of this paper is to fin...

The nonstationary impact of local temperature changes and ENSO on extreme precipitation at the global scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Qiaohong; Miao, Chiyuan; Qiao, Yuanyuan; Duan, Qingyun

2017-12-01

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and local temperature are important drivers of extreme precipitation. Understanding the impact of ENSO and temperature on the risk of extreme precipitation over global land will provide a foundation for risk assessment and climate-adaptive design of infrastructure in a changing climate. In this study, nonstationary generalized extreme value distributions were used to model extreme precipitation over global land for the period 1979-2015, with ENSO indicator and temperature as covariates. Risk factors were estimated to quantify the contrast between the influence of different ENSO phases and temperature. The results show that extreme precipitation is dominated by ENSO over 22% of global land and by temperature over 26% of global land. With a warming climate, the risk of high-intensity daily extreme precipitation increases at high latitudes but decreases in tropical regions. For ENSO, large parts of North America, southern South America, and southeastern and northeastern China are shown to suffer greater risk in El Niño years, with more than double the chance of intense extreme precipitation in El Niño years compared with La Niña years. Moreover, regions with more intense precipitation are more sensitive to ENSO. Global climate models were used to investigate the changing relationship between extreme precipitation and the covariates. The risk of extreme, high-intensity precipitation increases across high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere but decreases in middle and lower latitudes under a warming climate scenario, and will likely trigger increases in severe flooding and droughts across the globe. However, there is some uncertainties associated with the influence of ENSO on predictions of future extreme precipitation, with the spatial extent and risk varying among the different models.

Accessing the capability of TRMM 3B42 V7 to simulate streamflow during extreme rain events: Case study for a Himalayan River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, Brijesh; Lakshmi, Venkat

2018-03-01

The paper examines the quality of Tropical Rainfall Monitoring Mission (TRMM) 3B42 V7 precipitation product to simulate the streamflow using Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model for various rainfall intensities over the Himalayan region. The SWAT model has been set up for Gandak River Basin with 41 sub-basins and 420 HRUs. Five stream gauge locations are used to simulate the streamflow for a time span of 10 years (2000-2010). Daily streamflow for the simulation period is collected from Central Water Commission (CWC), India and Department of Hydrology and Meteorology (DHM), Nepal. The simulation results are found good in terms of Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) {>}0.65, coefficient of determination (R2) {>}0.67 and Percentage Bias (PBIAS){<}15%, at each stream gauge sites. Thereafter, we have calculated the PBIAS and RMSE-observations standard deviation ratio (RSR) statistics between TRMM simulated and observed streamflow for various rainfall intensity classes, viz., light ({<}7.5 mm/d), moderate (7.5 to 35.4 mm/d), heavy (35.5 to 124.4 mm/d) and extremely heavy ({>}124.4 mm/d). The PBIAS and RSR show that TRMM simulated streamflow is suitable for moderate to heavy rainfall intensities. However, it does not perform well for light- and extremely-heavy rainfall intensities. The finding of the present work is useful for the problems related to water resources management, irrigation planning and hazard analysis over the Himalayan regions.

Changes in the Winter-Time Storminess over the North Atlantic, Associated with the 1.5°C and 2°C Levels of Global Warming.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barcikowska, M. J.; Weaver, S. J.; Feser, F.; Schenk, F.

2017-12-01

This study investigates the changes in extreme winter-time weather conditions over the NH midlatitudes. These conditions are to a large degree caused by extratropical storms, often associated with very intense and hazardous precipitation and wind. Although the skill of CMIP5 models in capturing these extremes is improved when compared to the previous generations, the spatial and temporal resolution of the models still remains a primary reason for the deficiencies. Therefore, many features of the storms projected for the future remain inconsistent. Here we are using the high-res horizontal (0.25° lat x lon) and temporal (3hr) output of the HAPPI experiment. This output facilitates not only an implicit extraction of storm tracks but also an analysis of the storm intensity, in terms of their maximum wind and rainfall, at subdaily time-scales. The analysis of simulated present climate shows an improved spatial pattern of large-scale circulation over North America and Europe, as compared to the CMIP5-generation models, and consequently a reduced zonal bias in storm tracks pattern. The information provided at subdaily time scale provides much more realistic representation of the magnitude of the extremes. These advances significantly contribute to our understanding of differential climate impacts between 1.5°C and 2°C levels of global warming. The spatial pattern of the north-eastward shift of storm tracks, derived from the recent CMIP5 future projections, is remarkably refined here. For example, increasing storminess expands towards Scandinavia, and not towards the north-central Europe. Derived spatial features of the storm intensity, e.g. increase in wind and precipitation on the west coasts of both the British Isles and Scandinavia underlines the relevancy of the results for the local communities and potential climate change adaptation initiatives.

Characterization of Aerosol Episodes in the Greater Mediterranean Sea Area from Satellite Observations (2000-2007)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gkikas, A.; Hatzianastassiou, N.; Mihalopoulos, N.; Torres, O.

2015-01-01

An algorithm able to identify and characterize episodes of different aerosol types above sea surfaces of the greater Mediterranean basin (GMB), including the Black Sea and the Atlantic Ocean off the coasts of Iberia and northwest Africa, is presented in this study. Based on this algorithm, five types of intense (strong and extreme) aerosol episodes in the GMB are identified and characterized using daily aerosol optical properties from satellite measurements, namely MODIS-Terra, Earth Probe (EP)-TOMS and OMIAura. These aerosol episodes are: (i) biomass-burning/urban-industrial (BU), (ii) desert dust (DD), (iii) dust/sea-salt (DSS), (iv) mixed (MX) and (v) undetermined (UN). The identification and characterization is made with our algorithm using a variety of aerosol properties, namely aerosol optical depth (AOD), Angstrom exponent (a), fine fraction (FF), effective radius (reff) and Aerosol Index (AI). During the study period (2000e2007), the most frequent aerosol episodes are DD, observed primarily in the western and central Mediterranean Sea, and off the northern African coasts, 7 times/year for strong episodes and 4 times/year for extreme ones, on average. The DD episodes yield 40% of all types of strong aerosol episodes in the study region, while they account for 71.5% of all extreme episodes. The frequency of occurrence of strong episodes exhibits specific geographical patterns, for example the BU are mostly observed along the coasts of southern Europe and off the Atlantic coasts of Portugal, the MX episodes off the Spanish Mediterranean coast and over the Adriatic and northern Aegean Sea, while the DSS ones over the western and central Mediterranean Sea. On the other hand, the extreme episodes for all but DD aerosol display more patchy spatial patterns. The strong episodes exhibit AOD at 550 nm as high as 1.6 in the southernmost parts of central and eastern Mediterranean Sea, which rise up to 5 for the extreme, mainly DD and DSS, episodes. Although more than 90% of all aerosol episodes last 1 day, there are few cases, mainly extreme DD episodes, which last up to 4 days. Independently of their type, the Mediterranean aerosol episodes occur more frequently in spring (strong and extreme episodes) and summer (strong episodes) and most rarely during winter. A significant year by year variability of Mediterranean aerosol episodes has been identified, more in terms of their frequency than intensity. An analysis of 5-day back trajectories for the most extreme episodes provides confidence on the obtained results of the algorithm, based on the revealed origin and track of air masses causing the episodes. The 25 and 6% of all strong and extreme episodes, respectively, are MX, thus highlighting the co-existence of different aerosol types in the greater Mediterranean. The intensity of both MX and DSS episodes exhibits similar patterns to those of DD strong ones, indicating that desert dust is a determinant factor for the intensity of aerosol episodes in the Mediterranean, including DSS and MX episodes.

Land use and climate variability amplify carbon, nutrient, and contaminant pulses: a review with management implications

EPA Science Inventory

Nonpoint source pollution from agriculture and urbanization is increasing globally at the same time that climate extremes have increased in frequency and intensity. We review over 160 studies and show how the interaction between land use and climate variability alters the magnit...

Extreme and superextreme events in a loss-modulated CO2 laser: Nonlinear resonance route and precursors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bonatto, Cristian; Endler, Antonio

2017-07-01

We investigate the occurrence of extreme and rare events, i.e., giant and rare light pulses, in a periodically modulated CO2 laser model. Due to nonlinear resonant processes, we show a scenario of interaction between chaotic bands of different orders, which may lead to the formation of extreme and rare events. We identify a crisis line in the modulation parameter space, and we show that, when the modulation amplitude increases, remaining in the vicinity of the crisis, some statistical properties of the laser pulses, such as the average and dispersion of amplitudes, do not change much, whereas the amplitude of extreme events grows enormously, giving rise to extreme events with much larger deviations than usually reported, with a significant probability of occurrence, i.e., with a long-tailed non-Gaussian distribution. We identify recurrent regular patterns, i.e., precursors, that anticipate the emergence of extreme and rare events, and we associate these regular patterns with unstable periodic orbits embedded in a chaotic attractor. We show that the precursors may or may not lead to the emergence of extreme events. Thus, we compute the probability of success or failure (false alarm) in the prediction of the extreme events, once a precursor is identified in the deterministic time series. We show that this probability depends on the accuracy with which the precursor is identified in the laser intensity time series.

Near Real-Time Flood Monitoring and Impact Assessment Systems. Chapter 6; [Case Study: 2011 Flooding in Southeast Asia

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ahamed, Aakash; Bolten, John; Doyle, C.; Fayne, Jessica

2016-01-01

Floods are the costliest natural disaster (United Nations 2004), causing approximately6.8 million deaths in the twentieth century alone (Doocy et al. 2013).Worldwide economic flood damage estimates in 2012 exceed $19 Billion USD(Munich Re 2013). Extended duration floods also pose longer term threats to food security, water, sanitation, hygiene, and community livelihoods, particularly in developing countries (Davies et al. 2014).Projections by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) suggest that precipitation extremes, rainfall intensity, storm intensity, and variability are increasing due to climate change (IPCC 2007). Increasing hydrologic uncertainty will likely lead to unprecedented extreme flood events. As such, there is a vital need to enhance and further develop traditional techniques used to rapidly assessflooding and extend analytical methods to estimate impacted population and infrastructure.

Design, synthesis, and taste evaluation of a high-intensity umami-imparting oxazole-based compound.

PubMed

Amino, Yusuke; Tahara, Yu-Ki; Yamada, Kei; Nakazawa, Masakazu; Tagami, Uno; Tajima, Takaho; Kuroda, Motonaka

2017-09-01

Umami taste is imparted predominantly by monosodium glutamate (MSG) and 5'-ribonucleotides. Recently, several different classes of hydrophobic umami-imparting compounds, the structures of which are quite different from MSG, have been reported. To obtain a novel umami-imparting compound, N-cinnamoyl phenethylamine was chosen as the lead compound, and a rational structure-optimization study was conducted on the basis of the pharmacophore model of previously reported compounds. The extremely potent umami-imparting compound 2-[[[2-[(1E)-2-(1,3-benzodioxol-5-yl)ethenyl]-4-oxazolyle]methoxy]methyl]pyridine, which exhibits 27,000 times the umami taste of MSG, was found. Its terminal pyridine residue and linear structure are suggested to be responsible for its strong activity. The time taken to reach maximum taste intensity exhibited by it, as determined by the time-intensity method, is 22.0 s, whereas the maximum taste intensity of MSG occurs immediately. This distinct difference in the time-course taste profile may be due to the hydrophobicity and strong receptor affinity of the new compound.

EXTREME INTENSITY INCREASES OF HIGH-ENERGY PARTICLE RADIATION IN THE EXOSPHERE AS OBSERVED BY SPUTNIK III

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Knuth, R.

1962-09-01

Two channels in the telemetered data from Sputnik III investigated the intensity of high-energy photons over 35 kilo-electron-volt. The data from the period between May 15 and Aug. 16, 1958 (corresponding to flight altitudes between 220 and 950 kilometers) were analyzed. The extreme intensity increases observed were illustrated and are discussed. (OTS)

Using Four Downscaling Techniques to Characterize Uncertainty in Updating Intensity-Duration-Frequency Curves Under Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cook, L. M.; Samaras, C.; McGinnis, S. A.

2017-12-01

Intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves are a common input to urban drainage design, and are used to represent extreme rainfall in a region. As rainfall patterns shift into a non-stationary regime as a result of climate change, these curves will need to be updated with future projections of extreme precipitation. Many regions have begun to update these curves to reflect the trends from downscaled climate models; however, few studies have compared the methods for doing so, as well as the uncertainty that results from the selection of the native grid scale and temporal resolution of the climate model. This study examines the variability in updated IDF curves for Pittsburgh using four different methods for adjusting gridded regional climate model (RCM) outputs into station scale precipitation extremes: (1) a simple change factor applied to observed return levels, (2) a naïve adjustment of stationary and non-stationary Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution parameters, (3) a transfer function of the GEV parameters from the annual maximum series, and (4) kernel density distribution mapping bias correction of the RCM time series. Return level estimates (rainfall intensities) and confidence intervals from these methods for the 1-hour to 48-hour duration are tested for sensitivity to the underlying spatial and temporal resolution of the climate ensemble from the NA-CORDEX project, as well as, the future time period for updating. The first goal is to determine if uncertainty is highest for: (i) the downscaling method, (ii) the climate model resolution, (iii) the climate model simulation, (iv) the GEV parameters, or (v) the future time period examined. Initial results of the 6-hour, 10-year return level adjusted with the simple change factor method using four climate model simulations of two different spatial resolutions show that uncertainty is highest in the estimation of the GEV parameters. The second goal is to determine if complex downscaling methods and high-resolution climate models are necessary for updating, or if simpler methods and lower resolution climate models will suffice. The final results can be used to inform the most appropriate method and climate model resolutions to use for updating IDF curves for urban drainage design.

Contributions of Dynamic and Thermodynamic Scaling in Subdaily Precipitation Extremes in India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ali, Haider; Mishra, Vimal

2018-03-01

Despite the importance of subdaily precipitation extremes for urban areas, the role of dynamic and thermodynamic scaling in changes in precipitation extremes in India remains poorly constrained. Here we estimate contributions from thermodynamic and dynamic scaling on changes in subdaily precipitation extremes for 23 urban locations in India. Subdaily precipitation extremes have become more intense during the last few decades. Moreover, we find a twofold rise in the frequency of subdaily precipitation extremes during 1979-2015, which is faster than the increase in daily precipitation extremes. The contribution of dynamic scaling in this rise in the frequency and intensity of subdaily precipitation extremes is higher than the thermodynamic scaling. Moreover, half-hourly precipitation extremes show higher contributions from the both thermodynamic ( 10%/K) and dynamic ( 15%/K) scaling than daily (6%/K and 9%/K, respectively) extremes indicating the role of warming on the rise in the subdaily precipitation extremes in India. Our findings have implications for better understanding the dynamic response of precipitation extremes under the warming climate over India.

Two millennia of torrential activity reconstructed from alpine lake sediments: towards regional patterns of extreme precipitation changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilhelm, B.; Arnaud, F.; Giguet-Covex, C.; Sabatier, P.; Crouzet, C.; Delannoy, J. J.

2012-04-01

In mountain areas extreme precipitation events trigger torrential floods, characterized by a sudden and intense rise of discharge causing large human and economic losses. Their frequency and/or intensity are expected to increase in the context of global warming. However, the relationship between such events and climate changes remains difficult to assess. Long-term geological records of intense events could enable to extend documented records beyond the observational data for a better understanding of local to regional flood hazard patterns in relation to past climatic changes and hence improving predictive models. In this context, lake sediment records appear a relevant archive as they are continuous records in which the identification of high-energy sediment layers allows to reconstruct flood calendar. In addition, the flood intensity can be reconstructed from the coarse fraction of each flood layer. Frequency and intensity of past torrential floods were thus reconstructed from four high-elevation lake records of the French Alps, in the framework of Pygmalion research program. Studied sites were selected along a north-south transect over this region to investigate the flooding responses to different climatic influences (westerlies in the north and Mediterranean influences in the south). High-resolution geochemical and sedimentological analyses were undertaken for an exhaustive identification of flood layers and several dating methods (short-lived radionuclides, 14C, correlation with historic events, paleomagnetism) were combined to reduce age uncertainties as much as possible. Over the entire French Alps, the torrential-flood frequency increases at a secular timescale during the cold period of the Little Ice Age (LIA; 1300-1900 AD). This increase seems in agreement with a regional high wetness, already described in the literature, possibly related to an increase in cyclonic activity. Superimposed to this secular trend, a pluri-decadal variability appears at different times depending on the site location (i.e. north-western or southern French Alps). In the north, peaks of flood frequency match well with high summer temperatures, while in the south they seem to be associated to solar maxima and negative phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation. Furthermore, the most extreme events occur during the warm Medieval Climate Anomaly (800-1300 AD) in the north while in the south the intensity of these events increases during the cold LIA period. Our results reveal major differences in the evolutions of the torrential-flood activity at a regional scale. This suggests that extreme precipitations over this part of the Alps are influenced by different forcing factors. In the north-western French Alps, warming seems to plays an important role, favouring the increase of both flood frequency and intensity at a pluri-decadal time scale. Inversely, at the same time scale, in the Southern French Alps, flood frequency and intensity seem to be strongly linked to meso-scale atmospheric circulations in relation to the North Atlantic Oscillation (see abstract from Wilhelm et al. in session CL4.3 for details). Our study hence suggests one should expect a generalised decrease of torrential flood frequency all around the Alps. However, in northern French Alps only, an increase in torrential flood intensity is expected by analogy with the MWP pattern.

Improving the Accuracy of Estimation of Climate Extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zolina, Olga; Detemmerman, Valery; Trenberth, Kevin E.

2010-12-01

Workshop on Metrics and Methodologies of Estimation of Extreme Climate Events; Paris, France, 27-29 September 2010; Climate projections point toward more frequent and intense weather and climate extremes such as heat waves, droughts, and floods, in a warmer climate. These projections, together with recent extreme climate events, including flooding in Pakistan and the heat wave and wildfires in Russia, highlight the need for improved risk assessments to help decision makers and the public. But accurate analysis and prediction of risk of extreme climate events require new methodologies and information from diverse disciplines. A recent workshop sponsored by the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) and hosted at United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) headquarters in France brought together, for the first time, a unique mix of climatologists, statisticians, meteorologists, oceanographers, social scientists, and risk managers (such as those from insurance companies) who sought ways to improve scientists' ability to characterize and predict climate extremes in a changing climate.

A Generalized Framework for Non-Stationary Extreme Value Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ragno, E.; Cheng, L.; Sadegh, M.; AghaKouchak, A.

2017-12-01

Empirical trends in climate variables including precipitation, temperature, snow-water equivalent at regional to continental scales are evidence of changes in climate over time. The evolving climate conditions and human activity-related factors such as urbanization and population growth can exert further changes in weather and climate extremes. As a result, the scientific community faces an increasing demand for updated appraisal of the time-varying climate extremes. The purpose of this study is to offer a robust and flexible statistical tool for non-stationary extreme value analysis which can better characterize the severity and likelihood of extreme climatic variables. This is critical to ensure a more resilient environment in a changing climate. Following the positive feedback on the first version of Non-Stationary Extreme Value Analysis (NEVA) Toolbox by Cheng at al. 2014, we present an improved version, i.e. NEVA2.0. The upgraded version herein builds upon a newly-developed hybrid evolution Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach for numerical parameters estimation and uncertainty assessment. This addition leads to a more robust uncertainty estimates of return levels, return periods, and risks of climatic extremes under both stationary and non-stationary assumptions. Moreover, NEVA2.0 is flexible in incorporating any user-specified covariate other than the default time-covariate (e.g., CO2 emissions, large scale climatic oscillation patterns). The new feature will allow users to examine non-stationarity of extremes induced by physical conditions that underlie the extreme events (e.g. antecedent soil moisture deficit, large-scale climatic teleconnections, urbanization). In addition, the new version offers an option to generate stationary and/or non-stationary rainfall Intensity - Duration - Frequency (IDF) curves that are widely used for risk assessment and infrastructure design. Finally, a Graphical User Interface (GUI) of the package is provided, making NEVA accessible to a broader audience.

Case study: Rainfall partitioning across a natural-to-urban forest gradient during an extreme rain event

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akin, B. H.; Van Stan, J. T., II; Cote, J. F.; Jarvis, M. T.; Underwood, J.; Friesen, J.; Hildebrandt, A.; Maldonado, G.

2017-12-01

Trees' partitioning of rainfall is an important first process along the rainfall-to-runoff pathway that has economically significant influences on urban stormwater management. However, important knowledge gaps exist regarding (1) its role during extreme storms and (2) how this role changes as forest structure is altered by urbanization. Little research has been conducted on canopy rainfall partitioning during large, intense storms, likely because canopy water storage is rapidly overwhelmed (i.e., 1-3 mm) by short duration events exceeding, for example, 80 mm of rainfall. However, canopy structure controls more than just storage; it also affects the time for rain to drain to the surface (becoming throughfall) and the micrometeorological conditions that drive wet canopy evaporation. In fact, observations from an example extreme ( 100 mm with maximum 5-minute intensities exceeding 55 mm/h) storm across a urban-to-natural gradient in pine forests in southeast Georgia (USA), show that storm intensities were differentially dampened by 33% (tree row), 28% (forest fragment), and 17% (natural forests). In addition, maximum wet canopy evaporation rates were higher for the exposed tree row (0.18 mm/h) than for the partially-enclosed fragment canopy (0.14 mm/h) and the closed canopy natural forest site (0.11). This resulted in interception percentages decreasing from urban-to-natural stand structures (25% to 16%). A synoptic analysis of the extreme storm in this case study also shows that the mesoscale meteorological conditions that developed the heavy rainfall is expected to occur more often with projected climate changes.

Neutron Time-of-Flight Diffractometer HIPPO at LANSCE

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vogel, Sven; Williams, Darrick; Zhao, Yusheng; Bennett, Kristin; von Dreele, Bob; Wenk, Hans-Rudolf

2004-03-01

The High-Pressure Preferred Orientation (HIPPO) neutron diffractometer is the first third-generation neutron time-of-flight powder diffractometer to be constructed in the United States. It produces extremely high intensity by virtue of a short (9 m) initial flight path on a high intensity water moderator and 1380 3He detector tubes covering 4.5 m2 of detector area from 10' to 150' in scattering angles. HIPPO was designed and manufactured as a joint effort between LANSCE and University of California with the goals of attaining world-class science and making neutron powder diffractometry an accessible and available tool to the national user community. Over two decades of momentum transfer are available (0.1-30 A-1) to support studies of amorphous solids; magnetic diffraction; small crystalline samples; and samples subjected to extreme environments such as temperature, pressure, or magnetic fields. The exceptionally high data rates of HIPPO also make it useful for time-resolved studies. In addition to the standard ancillary equipment (100-position sample/texture changer, closed-cycle He refrigerator, furnace), HIPPO has unique high-pressure cells capable of achieving pressures of 30 GPA at ambient and high (2000 K) temperature with samples up to 100 mm3 in volume.

Physiological intensity profile, exercise load and performance predictors of a 65-km mountain ultra-marathon.

PubMed

Fornasiero, Alessandro; Savoldelli, Aldo; Fruet, Damiano; Boccia, Gennaro; Pellegrini, Barbara; Schena, Federico

2018-06-01

The aims of the study were to describe the physiological profile of a 65-km (4000-m cumulative elevation gain) running mountain ultra-marathon (MUM) and to identify predictors of MUM performance. Twenty-three amateur trail-runners performed anthropometric evaluations and an uphill graded exercise test (GXT) for VO 2max, ventilatory thresholds (VTs), power outputs (PMax, PVTs) and heart rate response (HRmax, HR@VTs). Heart rate (HR) was monitored during the race and intensity was expressed as: Zone I (VT2) for exercise load calculation (training impulse, TRIMP). Mean race intensity was 77.1%±4.4% of HRmax distributed as: 85.7%±19.4% Zone I, 13.9%±18.6% Zone II, 0.4%±0.9% Zone III. Exercise load was 766±110 TRIMP units. Race time (11.8±1.6h) was negatively correlated with VO 2max (r = -0.66, P <0.001) and PMax (r = -0.73, P <0.001), resulting these variables determinant in predicting MUM performance, whereas exercise thresholds did not improve performance prediction. Laboratory variables explained only 59% of race time variance, underlining the multi-factorial character of MUM performance. Our results support the idea that VT1 represents a boundary of tolerable intensity in this kind of events, where exercise load is extremely high. This information can be helpful in identifying optimal pacing strategies to complete such extremely demanding MUMs.

Extreme ultraviolet probing of nonequilibrium dynamics in high energy density germanium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Principi, E.; Giangrisostomi, E.; Mincigrucci, R.; Beye, M.; Kurdi, G.; Cucini, R.; Gessini, A.; Bencivenga, F.; Masciovecchio, C.

2018-05-01

Intense femtosecond infrared laser pulses induce a nonequilibrium between thousands of Kelvin hot valence electrons and room-temperature ions in a germanium sample foil. The evolution of this exotic state of matter is monitored with time-resolved extreme ultraviolet absorption spectroscopy across the Ge M2 ,3 edge (≃30 eV ) using the FERMI free-electron laser. We analyze two distinct regimes in the ultrafast dynamics in laser-excited Ge: First, on a subpicosecond time scale, the electron energy distribution thermalizes to an extreme temperature unreachable in equilibrium solid germanium; then, during the following picoseconds, the lattice reacts strongly altering the electronic structure and resulting in melting to a metallic state alongside a breakdown of the local atomic order. Data analysis, based on a hybrid approach including both numerical and analytical calculations, provides an estimation of the electron and ion temperatures, the electron density of states, the carrier-phonon relaxation time, as well as the carrier density and lattice heat capacity under those extreme nonequilibrium conditions. Related structural anomalies, such as the occurrence of a transient low-density liquid phase and the possible drop in lattice heat capacity are discussed.

Spatial Interpolation of Historical Seasonal Rainfall Indices over Peninsular Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hassan, Zulkarnain; Haidir, Ahmad; Saad, Farah Naemah Mohd; Ayob, Afizah; Rahim, Mustaqqim Abdul; Ghazaly, Zuhayr Md.

2018-03-01

The inconsistency in inter-seasonal rainfall due to climate change will cause a different pattern in the rainfall characteristics and distribution. Peninsular Malaysia is not an exception for this inconsistency, in which it is resulting extreme events such as flood and water scarcity. This study evaluates the seasonal patterns in rainfall indices such as total amount of rainfall, the frequency of wet days, rainfall intensity, extreme frequency, and extreme intensity in Peninsular Malaysia. 40 years (1975-2015) data records have been interpolated using Inverse Distance Weighted method. The results show that the formation of rainfall characteristics are significance during the Northeast monsoon (NEM), as compared to Southwest monsoon (SWM). Also, there is a high rainfall intensity and frequency related to extreme over eastern coasts of Peninsula during the NEM season.

A Framework to Understand Extreme Space Weather Event Probability.

PubMed

Jonas, Seth; Fronczyk, Kassandra; Pratt, Lucas M

2018-03-12

An extreme space weather event has the potential to disrupt or damage infrastructure systems and technologies that many societies rely on for economic and social well-being. Space weather events occur regularly, but extreme events are less frequent, with a small number of historical examples over the last 160 years. During the past decade, published works have (1) examined the physical characteristics of the extreme historical events and (2) discussed the probability or return rate of select extreme geomagnetic disturbances, including the 1859 Carrington event. Here we present initial findings on a unified framework approach to visualize space weather event probability, using a Bayesian model average, in the context of historical extreme events. We present disturbance storm time (Dst) probability (a proxy for geomagnetic disturbance intensity) across multiple return periods and discuss parameters of interest to policymakers and planners in the context of past extreme space weather events. We discuss the current state of these analyses, their utility to policymakers and planners, the current limitations when compared to other hazards, and several gaps that need to be filled to enhance space weather risk assessments. © 2018 Society for Risk Analysis.

The cross wavelet and wavelet coherence analysis of spatio-temporal rainfall-groundwater system in Pingtung plain, Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Yuan-Chien; Yu, Hwa-Lung

2013-04-01

The increasing frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall events has been observed recently in Taiwan. Particularly, Typhoon Morakot, Typhoon Fanapi, and Typhoon Megi consecutively brought record-breaking intensity and magnitude of rainfalls to different locations of Taiwan in these two years. However, records show the extreme rainfall events did not elevate the amount of annual rainfall accordingly. Conversely, the increasing frequency of droughts has also been occurring in Taiwan. The challenges have been confronted by governmental agencies and scientific communities to come up with effective adaptation strategies for natural disaster reduction and sustainable environment establishment. Groundwater has long been a reliable water source for a variety of domestic, agricultural, and industrial uses because of its stable quantity and quality. In Taiwan, groundwater accounts for the largest proportion of all water resources for about 40%. This study plans to identify and quantify the nonlinear relationship between precipitation and groundwater recharge, find the non-stationary time-frequency relations between the variations of rainfall and groundwater levels to understand the phase difference of time series. Groundwater level data and over-50-years hourly rainfall records obtained from 20 weather stations in Pingtung Plain, Taiwan has been collected. Extract the space-time pattern by EOF method, which is a decomposition of a signal or data set in terms of orthogonal basis functions determined from the data for both time series and spatial patterns, to identify the important spatial pattern of groundwater recharge and using cross wavelet and wavelet coherence method to identify the relationship between rainfall and groundwater levels. Results show that EOF method can specify the spatial-temporal patterns which represents certain geological characteristics and other mechanisms of groundwater, and the wavelet coherence method can identify general correlation between rainfall and groundwater signal at low frequency and high frequency relationship at some certain extreme rainfall events. Keywords: extreme rainfall, groundwater, EOF, wavelet coherence

Intermittent burst of a super rogue wave in the breathing multi-soliton regime of an anomalous fiber ring cavity.

PubMed

Lee, Seungjong; Park, Kyoungyoon; Kim, Hyuntai; Vazquez-Zuniga, Luis Alonso; Kim, Jinseob; Jeong, Yoonchan

2018-04-30

We report the intermittent burst of a super rogue wave in the multi-soliton (MS) regime of an anomalous-dispersion fiber ring cavity. We exploit the spatio-temporal measurement technique to log and capture the shot-to-shot wave dynamics of various pulse events in the cavity, and obtain the corresponding intensity probability density function, which eventually unveils the inherent nature of the extreme events encompassed therein. In the breathing MS regime, a specific MS regime with heavy soliton population, the natural probability of pulse interaction among solitons and dispersive waves exponentially increases owing to the extraordinarily high soliton population density. Combination of the probabilistically started soliton interactions and subsequently accompanying dispersive waves in their vicinity triggers an avalanche of extreme events with even higher intensities, culminating to a burst of a super rogue wave nearly ten times stronger than the average solitons observed in the cavity. Without any cavity modification or control, the process naturally and intermittently recurs within a time scale in the order of ten seconds.

Nonlinear Dichroism in Back-to-Back Double Ionization of He by an Intense Elliptically Polarized Few-Cycle Extreme Ultraviolet Pulse.

PubMed

Ngoko Djiokap, J M; Manakov, N L; Meremianin, A V; Hu, S X; Madsen, L B; Starace, Anthony F

2014-11-28

Control of double ionization of He by means of the polarization and carrier-envelope phase (CEP) of an intense, few-cycle extreme ultraviolet (XUV) pulse is demonstrated numerically by solving the six-dimensional two-electron, time-dependent Schrödinger equation for He interacting with an elliptically polarized XUV pulse. Guided by perturbation theory (PT), we predict the existence of a nonlinear dichroic effect (∝I^{3/2}) that is sensitive to the CEP, ellipticity, peak intensity I, and temporal duration of the pulse. This dichroic effect (i.e., the difference of the two-electron angular distributions for opposite helicities of the ionizing XUV pulse) originates from interference of first- and second-order PT amplitudes, allowing one to probe and control S- and D-wave channels of the two-electron continuum. We show that the back-to-back in-plane geometry with unequal energy sharing is an ideal one for observing this dichroic effect that occurs only for an elliptically polarized, few-cycle attosecond pulse.

Mediterranean space-time extremes of wind wave sea states

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barbariol, Francesco; Carniel, Sandro; Sclavo, Mauro; Marcello Falcieri, Francesco; Bonaldo, Davide; Bergamasco, Andrea; Benetazzo, Alvise

2014-05-01

Traditionally, wind wave sea states during storms have been observed, modeled, and predicted mostly in the time domain, i.e. at a fixed point. In fact, the standard statistical models used in ocean waves analysis rely on the implicit assumption of long-crested waves. Nevertheless, waves in storms are mainly short-crested. Hence, spatio-temporal features of the wave field are crucial to accurately model the sea state characteristics and to provide reliable predictions, particurly of wave extremes. Indeed, the experimental evidence provided by novel instrumentations, e.g. WASS (Wave Acquisition Stereo System), showed that the maximum sea surface elevation gathered in time over an area, i.e. the space-time extreme, is larger than that one measured in time at a point, i.e. the time extreme. Recently, stochastic models used to estimate maxima of multidimensional Gaussian random fields have been applied to ocean waves statistics. These models are based either on Piterbarg's theorem or Adler and Taylor's Euler Characteristics approach. Besides a probability of exceedance of a certain threshold, they can provide the expected space-time extreme of a sea state, as long as space-time wave features (i.e. some parameters of the directional variance density spectrum) are known. These models have been recently validated against WASS observation from fixed and moving platforms. In this context, our focus was modeling and predicting extremes of wind waves during storms. Thus, to intensively gather space-time extremes data over the Mediterranean region, we used directional spectra provided by the numerical wave model SWAN (Simulating WAves Nearshore). Therefore, we set up a 6x6 km2 resolution grid entailing most of the Mediterranean Sea and we forced it with COSMO-I7 high resolution (7x7 km2) hourly wind fields, within 2007-2013 period. To obtain the space-time features, i.e. the spectral parameters, at each grid node and over the 6 simulated years, we developed a modified version of the SWAN model, the SWAN Space-Time (SWAN-ST). SWAN-ST results were post-processed to obtain the expected space-time extremes over the model domain. To this end, we applied the stochastic model of Fedele, developed starting from Adler and Taylor's approach, which we found to be more accurate and versatile with respect to Piterbarg's theorem. Results we obtained provide an alternative sight on Mediterranean extreme wave climate, which could represent the first step towards operationl forecasting of space-time wave extremes, on the one hand, and the basis for a novel statistical standard wave model, on the other. These results may benefit marine designers, seafarers and other subjects operating at sea and exposed to the frequent and severe hazard represented by extreme wave conditions.

Optimized photonic gauge of extreme high vacuum with Petawatt lasers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paredes, Ángel; Novoa, David; Tommasini, Daniele; Mas, Héctor

2014-03-01

One of the latest proposed applications of ultra-intense laser pulses is their possible use to gauge extreme high vacuum by measuring the photon radiation resulting from nonlinear Thomson scattering within a vacuum tube. Here, we provide a complete analysis of the process, computing the expected rates and spectra, both for linear and circular polarizations of the laser pulses, taking into account the effect of the time envelope in a slowly varying envelope approximation. We also design a realistic experimental configuration allowing for the implementation of the idea and compute the corresponding geometric efficiencies. Finally, we develop an optimization procedure for this photonic gauge of extreme high vacuum at high repetition rate Petawatt and multi-Petawatt laser facilities, such as VEGA, JuSPARC and ELI.

Colluvium supply in humid regions limits the frequency of storm-triggered landslides.

PubMed

Parker, Robert N; Hales, Tristram C; Mudd, Simon M; Grieve, Stuart W D; Constantine, José A

2016-09-30

Shallow landslides, triggered by extreme rainfall, are a significant hazard in mountainous landscapes. The hazard posed by shallow landslides depends on the availability and strength of colluvial material in landslide source areas and the frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall events. Here we investigate how the time taken to accumulate colluvium affects landslide triggering rate in the Southern Appalachian Mountains, USA and how this may affect future landslide hazards. We calculated the failure potential of 283 hollows by comparing colluvium depths to the minimum (critical) soil depth required for landslide initiation in each hollow. Our data show that most hollow soil depths are close to their critical depth, with 62% of hollows having soils that are too thin to fail. Our results, supported by numerical modeling, reveal that landslide frequency in many humid landscapes may be insensitive to projected changes in the frequency of intense rainfall events.

Oxidative stress in severe pulmonary trauma in critical ill patients. Antioxidant therapy in patients with multiple trauma--a review.

PubMed

Bedreag, Ovidiu Horea; Rogobete, Alexandru Florin; Sarandan, Mirela; Cradigati, Alina Carmen; Papurica, Marius; Dumbuleu, Maria Corina; Chira, Alexandru Mihai; Rosu, Oana Maria; Sandesc, Dorel

2015-01-01

Multiple trauma patients require extremely good management and thus, the trauma team needs to be prepared and to be up to date with the new standards of intensive therapy. Oxidative stress and free radicals represent an extremely aggressive factor to cells, having a direct consequence upon the severity of lung inflammation. Pulmonary tissue is damaged by oxidative stress, leading to biosynthesis of mediators that exacerbate inflammation modulators. The subsequent inflammation spreads throughout the body, leading most of the time to multiple organ dysfunction and death. In this paper, we briefly present an update of biochemical effects of oxidative stress and free radical damage to the pulmonary tissue in patients in critical condition in the intensive care unit. Also, we would like to present a series of active substances that substantially reduce the aggressiveness of free radicals, increasing the chances of survival.

Colluvium supply in humid regions limits the frequency of storm-triggered landslides

PubMed Central

Parker, Robert N.; Hales, Tristram C.; Mudd, Simon M.; Grieve, Stuart W. D.; Constantine, José A.

2016-01-01

Shallow landslides, triggered by extreme rainfall, are a significant hazard in mountainous landscapes. The hazard posed by shallow landslides depends on the availability and strength of colluvial material in landslide source areas and the frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall events. Here we investigate how the time taken to accumulate colluvium affects landslide triggering rate in the Southern Appalachian Mountains, USA and how this may affect future landslide hazards. We calculated the failure potential of 283 hollows by comparing colluvium depths to the minimum (critical) soil depth required for landslide initiation in each hollow. Our data show that most hollow soil depths are close to their critical depth, with 62% of hollows having soils that are too thin to fail. Our results, supported by numerical modeling, reveal that landslide frequency in many humid landscapes may be insensitive to projected changes in the frequency of intense rainfall events. PMID:27688039

Cascading disasters in the huge coastal aquifer of Salento (Apulia region, Southern Italy) ensuing droughts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parisi, Alessandro; Fidelibus, Maria Dolores

2017-04-01

Physical extremes can be distinguished in "sudden physical extremes" (e.g. earthquakes, tsunami) and "progressive physical extremes" (e.g. drought, desertification, landslides). They differ for frequency, intensity, spatial extent, duration and timing of occurrence. If a physical extreme, by interacting with human systems, induces negative consequences, its outcome can be a "disaster". The disasters are, in both above cases, characterized by a few phases: physical extreme occurrence, emergency, response, and recovery. However, in the case of a progressive physical extreme, the disaster develops with an overlap in the time of the above-mentioned phases. When the events are repetitive, the emergency planning (which follows a cycle) succeeds with preparedness and mitigation with the intent of reducing the risk. Both the sudden and progressive physical extremes produce cascading effects of consequences on social, environmental and economic systems. Disasters consequent to sudden and progressive extremes show, however, some differences, mainly attributable to the "visibility" of the effects and to their time scale of evolution. As matter of fact, a disaster consequent to a progressive physical extreme produces "emerging signals" that are often invisible. Moreover, the emergency phase can arise with a time delay compared to the occurrence of the physical extreme, depending on the spatial scale of impacted system. The above differences allow defining "creeping disasters" the potential disasters related to progressive physical extremes. This study deals with some peculiar "cascading disasters" consequent to drought, which is the main "creeping disaster", namely the groundwater drought and the consequent salinization of coastal aquifers. In regional flow systems, their effects are invisible in the immediate to common people (and often even to managers) because of the concealed nature of groundwater; moreover, they are difficult to assess because of the shift over time of their evolution compared to the promptness of surface effects. The study area is the Salento coastal karstic aquifer (Apulia region, Southern Italy), where the groundwater flows according to a regional flow system. It has been subject to successive meteorological droughts between 1960 and 2010. The groundwater monitoring performed during this period, even with some gaps, allows identifying time lags between superficial effects and underground system response, potential tipping points, and emerging signals of the cascading disasters.

Extreme storm activity in North Atlantic and European region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vyazilova, N.

2010-09-01

The extreme storm activity study over North Atlantic and Europe includes the analyses of extreme cyclone (track number, integral cyclonic intensity) and extreme storm (track number) during winter and summer seasons in the regions: 1) 55°N-80N, 50°W-70°E; 2) 30°N-55°N, 50°W-70°E. Extreme cyclones were selected based on cyclone centre pressure (P<=970 mbar). Extreme storms were selected from extreme cyclones based on wind velocity on 925 mbar. The Bofort scala was used for this goal. Integral cyclonic intensity (for region) includes the calculation cyclone centers number and sum of MSLP anomalies in cyclone centers. The analyses based on automated cyclone tracking algorithm, 6-hourly MSLP and wind data (u and v on 925 gPa) from the NCEP/NCAR reanalyses from January 1948 to March 2010. The comparision of mean, calculated for every ten years, had shown, that in polar region extreme cyclone and storm track number, and integral cyclonic intensity gradually increases and have maximum during last years (as for summer, as for winter season). Every ten years means for summer season are more then for winter season, as for polar, as for tropical region. Means (ten years) for tropical region are significance less then for polar region.

Temporal and spatial characteristics of extreme precipitation events in the Midwest of Jilin Province based on multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis method and copula functions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Enliang; Zhang, Jiquan; Si, Ha; Dong, Zhenhua; Cao, Tiehua; Lan, Wu

2017-10-01

Environmental changes have brought about significant changes and challenges to water resources and management in the world; these include increasing climate variability, land use change, intensive agriculture, and rapid urbanization and industrial development, especially much more frequency extreme precipitation events. All of which greatly affect water resource and the development of social economy. In this study, we take extreme precipitation events in the Midwest of Jilin Province as an example; daily precipitation data during 1960-2014 are used. The threshold of extreme precipitation events is defined by multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA) method. Extreme precipitation (EP), extreme precipitation ratio (EPR), and intensity of extreme precipitation (EPI) are selected as the extreme precipitation indicators, and then the Kolmogorov-Smirnov (K-S) test is employed to determine the optimal probability distribution function of extreme precipitation indicators. On this basis, copulas connect nonparametric estimation method and the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) method is adopted to determine the bivariate copula function. Finally, we analyze the characteristics of single variable extremum and bivariate joint probability distribution of the extreme precipitation events. The results show that the threshold of extreme precipitation events in semi-arid areas is far less than that in subhumid areas. The extreme precipitation frequency shows a significant decline while the extreme precipitation intensity shows a trend of growth; there are significant differences in spatiotemporal of extreme precipitation events. The spatial variation trend of the joint return period gets shorter from the west to the east. The spatial distribution of co-occurrence return period takes on contrary changes and it is longer than the joint return period.

Fabrication of highly efficient ZnO nanoscintillators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Procházková, Lenka; Gbur, Tomáš; Čuba, Václav; Jarý, Vítězslav; Nikl, Martin

2015-09-01

Photo-induced synthesis of high-efficiency ultrafast nanoparticle scintillators of ZnO was demonstrated. Controlled doping with Ga(III) and La(III) ions together with the optimized method of ZnO synthesis and subsequent two-step annealing in air and under reducing atmosphere allow to achieve very high intensity of UV exciton luminescence, up to 750% of BGO intensity magnitude. Fabricated nanoparticles feature extremely short sub-nanosecond photoluminescence decay times. Temperature dependence of the photoluminescence spectrum within 8-340 K range was investigated and shows the absence of visible defect-related emission within all temperature intervals.

Hourly storm characteristics along the U.S. West Coast: Role of atmospheric rivers in extreme precipitation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lamjiri, Maryam A.; Dettinger, Michael; Ralph, F. Martin; Guan, B.

2017-01-01

Gridded hourly precipitation observations over the conterminous U.S., from 1948 to 2002, are analyzed to determine climatological characteristics of storm precipitation totals. Despite generally lower hourly intensities, precipitation totals along the U.S. West Coast (USWC) are comparable to those in southeast U.S. (SEUS). Storm durations, more so than hourly intensities, strongly modulate precipitation-total variability over the USWC, where the correlation coefficients between storm durations and storm totals range from 0.7 to 0.9. Atmospheric rivers (ARs) contribute 30–50% of annual precipitation on the USWC and make such large contributions to extreme storms that 60–100% of the most extreme storms, i.e., storms with precipitation-total return intervals longer than 2 years, are associated with ARs. These extreme storm totals are more strongly tied to storm durations than to storm hourly or average intensities, emphasizing the importance of AR persistence to extreme storms on the USWC.

Spatio-temporal variations in storm surges along the North Atlantic coasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marcos, Marta; Woodworth, Philip

2017-04-01

Extreme sea levels along the coasts of the North Atlantic Ocean and the Gulf of Mexico have been investigated using hourly tide gauge records compiled in the recently released GESLA-2 data set (www.gesla.org). These regions are among the most densely monitored coasts worldwide, with more than 300 high frequency quality-controlled tide gauge time series available. Here we estimate the storm surge component of extreme sea levels using both tidal residuals and skew surges, for which we explore the spatial and temporal coherency of their intensities, duration and frequency. We quantify the relationship of extremes with dominant large scale climate patterns and discuss the impact of mean sea level changes. Finally, we test the assumption of stationarity of the probability of extreme occurrence and to which extent it holds when mean sea level changes are considered in combination with storm surges.

The Impact of Air-Sea Interactions on the Representation of Tropical Precipitation Extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hirons, L. C.; Klingaman, N. P.; Woolnough, S. J.

2018-02-01

The impacts of air-sea interactions on the representation of tropical precipitation extremes are investigated using an atmosphere-ocean-mixed-layer coupled model. The coupled model is compared to two atmosphere-only simulations driven by the coupled-model sea-surface temperatures (SSTs): one with 31 day running means (31 d), the other with a repeating mean annual cycle. This allows separation of the effects of interannual SST variability from those of coupled feedbacks on shorter timescales. Crucially, all simulations have a consistent mean state with very small SST biases against present-day climatology. 31d overestimates the frequency, intensity, and persistence of extreme tropical precipitation relative to the coupled model, likely due to excessive SST-forced precipitation variability. This implies that atmosphere-only attribution and time-slice experiments may overestimate the strength and duration of precipitation extremes. In the coupled model, air-sea feedbacks damp extreme precipitation, through negative local thermodynamic feedbacks between convection, surface fluxes, and SST.

Transient phenomena in cosmic ray intensity during extreme events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Agarwal, Rekha; Mishra, Rajesh K.

2008-04-01

In the present work an analysis has been made of the extreme events occurring during July 2005. Specifically, a rather intense Forbush decrease was observed at different neutron monitors all over the world during 16 July 2005. An effort has been made to study the effect of this unusual event on cosmic ray intensity as well as various solar and interplanetary plasma parameters. It is noteworthy that during 11 to 18 July 2005 the solar activity ranged from low to very active. Especially low levels occurred on 11, 15, and 17 July whereas high levels took place on 14 and 16 July 2005. The Sun is observed to be active during 11 to 18 July 2005, the interplanetary magnetic field intensity lies within 15 nT, and solar wind velocity was limited to ˜500 kms-1. The geomagnetic activity during this period remains very quiet, the Kp index did not exceed 5, the disturbance storm time Dst index remains ˜-70 nT and no sudden storm commencement has been detected during this period. It is noted that for the majority of the hours, the north/south component of the interplanetary magnetic field, Bz, remains negative, and the cosmic ray intensity increases and shows good/high correlation with Bz, as the polarity of Bz tends to shift from negative to positive values, the intensity decreases and shows good/high anti-correlation with Bz. The cosmic ray intensity tends to decrease with increase of interplanetary magnetic field strength (B) and shows anti-correlation for the majority of the days.

An Example of Economic Value in Rapid Prototyping

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hauer, R. L.; Braunscheidel, E. P.

2001-01-01

Today's modern machining projects are composed more and more of complicated and intricate structure due to a variety of reasons including the ability to computer model complex surfaces and forms. The cost of producing these forms can be extremely high not only in dollars but in time to complete. Changes are even more difficult to incorporate. The subject blade shown is an excellent example. Its complex form would have required hundreds of hours in fabrication for just a simple prototype. The procurement would have taken in the neighborhood of six weeks to complete. The actual fabrication would have been an equal amount of time to complete. An alternative to this process would have been a wood model. Although cheaper than a metal fabrication, it would be extremely time intensive and require in the neighborhood of a month to produce in-house.

Picosecond Pulse Recirculation for High Average Brightness Thomson Scattering-based Gamma-ray Sources

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Semenov, V. A.

2009-06-12

Pulse recirculation has been successfully demonstrated with the interaction laser system of LLNL's Thomson-Radiated Extreme X-ray (T-REX) source. The recirculation increased twenty-eight times the intensity of the light coming out of the laser system, demonstrating the capability of increasing the gamma-ray flux emitted by T-REX. The technical approach demonstrated could conceivably increase the average gamma-ray flux output by up to a hundred times.

Power in randomized group comparisons: the value of adding a single intermediate time point to a traditional pretest-posttest design.

PubMed

Venter, Anre; Maxwell, Scott E; Bolig, Erika

2002-06-01

Adding a pretest as a covariate to a randomized posttest-only design increases statistical power, as does the addition of intermediate time points to a randomized pretest-posttest design. Although typically 5 waves of data are required in this instance to produce meaningful gains in power, a 3-wave intensive design allows the evaluation of the straight-line growth model and may reduce the effect of missing data. The authors identify the statistically most powerful method of data analysis in the 3-wave intensive design. If straight-line growth is assumed, the pretest-posttest slope must assume fairly extreme values for the intermediate time point to increase power beyond the standard analysis of covariance on the posttest with the pretest as covariate, ignoring the intermediate time point.

Recent and future extreme precipitation over Ukraine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vyshkvarkova, Olena; Voskresenskaya, Elena

2014-05-01

The aim of study is to analyze the parameters of precipitation extremes and inequality over Ukraine in recent climate epoch and their possible changes in the future. Data of observations from 28 hydrometeorological stations over Ukraine and output of GFDL-CM3 model (CMIP5) for XXI century were used in the study. The methods of concentration index (J. Martin-Vide, 2004) for the study of precipitation inequality while the extreme precipitation indices recommended by the ETCCDI - for the frequency of events. Results. Precipitation inequality on the annual and seasonal scales was studied using estimated CI series for 1951-2005. It was found that annual CI ranges vary from 0.58 to 0.64. They increase southward from the north-west (forest zone) and the north-east (forest steppe zone) of Ukraine. CI maxima are located in the coastal regions of the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov. Annual CI spatial distribution indicates that the contribution of extreme precipitation into annual totals is most significant at the boundary zone between steppe and marine regions. At the same time precipitation pattern at the foothill of Carpathian Mountains is more homogenous. The CI minima (0.54) are typical for the winter season in foothill of Ukrainian Carpathians. The CI maxima reach 0.71 in spring at the steppe zone closed to the Black Sea coast. It should be noted that the greatest ranges of CI maximum and CI minimum deviation are typical for spring. It is associated with patterns of cyclone trajectories in that season. The most territory is characterized by tendency to decrease the contribution of extreme precipitation into the total amount (CI linear trends are predominantly negative in all seasons). Decadal and interdecadal variability of precipitation inequality associated with global processes in ocean-atmosphere system are also studied. It was shown that precipitation inequality over Ukraine on 10 - 15 % stronger in negative phase of Pacific Decadal Oscillation and in positive phase of Atlantic multidecadal oscillation. Typical space distribution of extreme precipitation (R95p) for seasons and for year is characterized by their southward intensity increasing from North-East and North-West. Summer precipitation extremes are characterized by quite homogeneous distribution. Linear trends of indices of precipitation extremes (R95p, R20mm and R30mm) for period 1951 - 2005 are mainly negative in winter season and positive in summer. To analyze the possible changes of extreme precipitation it was calculated the R95p index for recent climate period (1986 - 2005) and for periods 2046 - 2065 and 2081 - 2100 (as it was recommended by IPCC). Its difference between 1986 - 2005 and 2046 - 2065 shows that intensity of extreme precipitation will decrease in the north-east and increase in the south-west regions, especially in summer season. Magnitude of intensity changes of extreme precipitation will be ± 4 - 5 mm/day. The intensity changes of extreme precipitation since the recent climate period till the end of the century will be some less (2 - 3 mm/day) than in previous period, except summer months. Number of cases with precipitation extremes will be increase in southern regions of Ukraine in summer seasons. In other seasons it will be at the recent climate level.

Water Cycle Extremes: from Observations to Decisions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lawford, R. G.; Unninayar, S.; Berod, D.

2015-12-01

Extremes in the water cycle (droughts and floods) pose major challenges for water resource managers and emergency services. These challenges arise from observational and prediction systems, advisory services, impact reduction strategies, and cleanup and recovery operations. The Group on Earth Observations (GEO) through its Water Strategy ("GEOSS Water Strategy: from observations to decisions") is seeking to provide systems that will enable its members to more effectively meet their information needs prior to and during an extreme event. This presentation reviews the wide range of impacts that arise from extremes in the water cycle and the types of data and information needed to plan for and respond to these extreme events. It identifies the capabilities and limitations of current observational and analysis systems in defining the scale, timing, intensity and impacts of water cycle extremes and in directing society's response to them. This summary represents an early preliminary assessment of the global and regional information needs of water resource managers and begins to outline a strategy within GEO for using Earth Observations and ancillary information to address these needs.

How extreme is extreme hourly precipitation?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Papalexiou, Simon Michael; Dialynas, Yannis G.; Pappas, Christoforos

2016-04-01

The importance of accurate representation of precipitation at fine time scales (e.g., hourly), directly associated with flash flood events, is crucial in hydrological design and prediction. The upper part of a probability distribution, known as the distribution tail, determines the behavior of extreme events. In general, and loosely speaking, tails can be categorized in two families: the subexponential and the hyperexponential family, with the first generating more intense and more frequent extremes compared to the latter. In past studies, the focus has been mainly on daily precipitation, with the Gamma distribution being the most popular model. Here, we investigate the behaviour of tails of hourly precipitation by comparing the upper part of empirical distributions of thousands of records with three general types of tails corresponding to the Pareto, Lognormal, and Weibull distributions. Specifically, we use thousands of hourly rainfall records from all over the USA. The analysis indicates that heavier-tailed distributions describe better the observed hourly rainfall extremes in comparison to lighter tails. Traditional representations of the marginal distribution of hourly rainfall may significantly deviate from observed behaviours of extremes, with direct implications on hydroclimatic variables modelling and engineering design.

Extreme Precipitation and Beach Closures in the Great Lakes Region: Evaluating Risk among the Elderly

PubMed Central

Bush, Kathleen F.; Fossani, Cheryl L.; Li, Shi; Mukherjee, Bhramar; Gronlund, Carina J.; O’Neill, Marie S.

2014-01-01

As a result of climate change, extreme precipitation events are expected to increase in frequency and intensity. Runoff from these extreme events poses threats to water quality and human health. We investigated the impact of extreme precipitation and beach closings on the risk of gastrointestinal illness (GI)-related hospital admissions among individuals 65 and older in 12 Great Lakes cities from 2000 to 2006. Poisson regression models were fit in each city, controlling for temperature and long-term time trends. City-specific estimates were combined to form an overall regional risk estimate. Approximately 40,000 GI-related hospital admissions and over 100 beach closure days were recorded from May through September during the study period. Extreme precipitation (≥90th percentile) occurring the previous day (lag 1) is significantly associated with beach closures in 8 of the 12 cities (p < 0.05). However, no association was observed between beach closures and GI-related hospital admissions. These results support previous work linking extreme precipitation to compromised recreational water quality. PMID:24534768

Extreme value laws for fractal intensity functions in dynamical systems: Minkowski analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mantica, Giorgio; Perotti, Luca

2016-09-01

Typically, in the dynamical theory of extremal events, the function that gauges the intensity of a phenomenon is assumed to be convex and maximal, or singular, at a single, or at most a finite collection of points in phase-space. In this paper we generalize this situation to fractal landscapes, i.e. intensity functions characterized by an uncountable set of singularities, located on a Cantor set. This reveals the dynamical rôle of classical quantities like the Minkowski dimension and content, whose definition we extend to account for singular continuous invariant measures. We also introduce the concept of extremely rare event, quantified by non-standard Minkowski constants and we study its consequences to extreme value statistics. Limit laws are derived from formal calculations and are verified by numerical experiments. Dedicated to the memory of Joseph Ford, on the twentieth anniversary of his departure.

Detection and attribution of extreme weather disasters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huggel, Christian; Stone, Dáithí; Hansen, Gerrit

2014-05-01

Single disasters related to extreme weather events have caused loss and damage on the order of up to tens of billions US dollars over the past years. Recent disasters fueled the debate about whether and to what extent these events are related to climate change. In international climate negotiations disaster loss and damage is now high on the agenda, and related policy mechanisms have been discussed or are being implemented. In view of funding allocation and effective risk reduction strategies detection and attribution to climate change of extreme weather events and disasters is a key issue. Different avenues have so far been taken to address detection and attribution in this context. Physical climate sciences have developed approaches, among others, where variables that are reasonably sampled over climatically relevant time periods and related to the meteorological characteristics of the extreme event are examined. Trends in these variables (e.g. air or sea surface temperatures) are compared between observations and climate simulations with and without anthropogenic forcing. Generally, progress has been made in recent years in attribution of changes in the chance of some single extreme weather events to anthropogenic climate change but there remain important challenges. A different line of research is primarily concerned with losses related to the extreme weather events over time, using disaster databases. A growing consensus is that the increase in asset values and in exposure are main drivers of the strong increase of economic losses over the past several decades, and only a limited number of studies have found trends consistent with expectations from climate change. Here we propose a better integration of existing lines of research in detection and attribution of extreme weather events and disasters by applying a risk framework. Risk is thereby defined as a function of the probability of occurrence of an extreme weather event, and the associated consequences, with consequences being a function of the intensity of the physical weather event, the exposure and value of assets, and vulnerabilities. We have examined selected major extreme events and disasters, including superstorm Sandy in 2012, the Pakistan floods and the heat wave in Russia in 2010, the 2010 floods in Colombia and the 2011 floods in Australia. We systematically analyzed to what extent (anthropogenic) climate change may have contributed to intensity and frequency of the event, along with changes in the other risk variables, to eventually reach a more comprehensive understanding of the relative role of climate change in recent loss and damage of extreme weather events.

ANOMALOUS RELATIVE AR/CA CORONAL ABUNDANCES OBSERVED BY THE HINODE/EUV IMAGING SPECTROMETER NEAR SUNSPOTS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Doschek, G. A.; Warren, H. P.; Feldman, U.

2015-07-20

In determining the element abundance of argon (a high first ionization potential; FIP element) relative to calcium (a low FIP element) in flares, unexpectedly high intensities of two Ar xiv lines (194.40, 187.96 Å) relative to a Ca xiv line (193.87 Å) intensity were found in small (a few arcseconds) regions near sunspots in flare spectra recorded by the Extreme-ultraviolet Imaging Spectrometer on the Hinode spacecraft. In the most extreme case the Ar xiv line intensity relative to the Ca xiv intensity was 7 times the value expected from the photospheric abundance ratio, which is about 30 times the abundancemore » of argon relative to calcium in active regions, i.e., the measured Ar/Ca abundance ratio is about 10 instead of 0.37 as in active regions. The Ar xiv and Ca xiv lines are formed near 3.4 MK and have very similar contribution functions. This is the first observation of the inverse FIP effect in the Sun. Other regions show increases of 2–3 over photospheric abundances, or just photospheric abundances. This phenomenon appears to occur rarely and only over small areas of flares away from the regions containing multi-million degree plasma, but more work is needed to quantify the occurrences and their locations. In the bright hot regions of flares the Ar/Ca abundance ratio is coronal, i.e., the same as in active regions. In this Letter we show three examples of the inverse FIP effect.« less

Analysis and stochastic modelling of Intensity-Duration-Frequency relationship from 88 years of 10 min rainfall data in North Spain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Delgado, Oihane; Campo-Bescós, Miguel A.; López, J. Javier

2017-04-01

Frequently, when we are trying to solve certain hydrological engineering problems, it is often necessary to know rain intensity values related to a specific probability or return period, T. Based on analyses of extreme rainfall events at different time scale aggregation, we can deduce the relationships among Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF), that are widely used in hydraulic infrastructure design. However, the lack of long time series of rainfall intensities for smaller time periods, minutes or hours, leads to use mathematical expressions to characterize and extend these curves. One way to deduce them is through the development of synthetic rainfall time series generated from stochastic models, which is evaluated in this work. From recorded accumulated rainfall time series every 10 min in the pluviograph of Igueldo (San Sebastian, Spain) for the time period between 1927-2005, their homogeneity has been checked and possible statistically significant increasing or decreasing trends have also been shown. Subsequently, two models have been calibrated: Bartlett-Lewis and Markov chains models, which are based on the successions of storms, composed for a series of rainfall events, separated by a short interval of time each. Finally, synthetic ten-minute rainfall time series are generated, which allow to estimate detailed IDF curves and compare them with the estimated IDF based on the recorded data.

Extreme precipitation response to climate perturbations in an atmospheric mesoscale model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Attema, Jisk J.; Loriaux, Jessica M.; Lenderink, Geert

2014-01-01

Observations of extreme (sub-)hourly precipitation at mid-latitudes show a large dependency on the dew point temperature often close to 14% per degree—2 times the dependency of the specific humidity on dew point temperature which is given by the Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) relation. By simulating a selection of 11 cases over the Netherlands characterized by intense showers, we investigate this behavior in the non-hydrostatic weather prediction model Harmonie at a resolution of 2.5 km. These experiments are repeated using perturbations of the atmospheric profiles of temperature and humidity: (i) using an idealized approach with a 2° warmer (colder) atmosphere assuming constant relative humidity, and (ii) using changes in temperature and humidity derived from a long climate change simulation at 2° global warming. All perturbations have a difference in the local dew point temperature compared to the reference of approximately 2°. Differences are considerable between the cases, with dependencies ranging from almost zero to an increase of 18% per degree rise of the dew point temperature. On average however, we find an increase of extreme precipitation intensity of 11% per degree for the idealized perturbation, and 9% per degree for the climate change perturbation. For the most extreme events these dependencies appear to approach a rate of 11-14% per degree, in closer agreement with the observed relation.

Technical note: Space-time analysis of rainfall extremes in Italy: clues from a reconciled dataset

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Libertino, Andrea; Ganora, Daniele; Claps, Pierluigi

2018-05-01

Like other Mediterranean areas, Italy is prone to the development of events with significant rainfall intensity, lasting for several hours. The main triggering mechanisms of these events are quite well known, but the aim of developing rainstorm hazard maps compatible with their actual probability of occurrence is still far from being reached. A systematic frequency analysis of these occasional highly intense events would require a complete countrywide dataset of sub-daily rainfall records, but this kind of information was still lacking for the Italian territory. In this work several sources of data are gathered, for assembling the first comprehensive and updated dataset of extreme rainfall of short duration in Italy. The resulting dataset, referred to as the Italian Rainfall Extreme Dataset (I-RED), includes the annual maximum rainfalls recorded in 1 to 24 consecutive hours from more than 4500 stations across the country, spanning the period between 1916 and 2014. A detailed description of the spatial and temporal coverage of the I-RED is presented, together with an exploratory statistical analysis aimed at providing preliminary information on the climatology of extreme rainfall at the national scale. Due to some legal restrictions, the database can be provided only under certain conditions. Taking into account the potentialities emerging from the analysis, a description of the ongoing and planned future work activities on the database is provided.

Exploring societal solidarity in the context of extreme prematurity.

PubMed

Hendriks, Manya J; Bucher, Hans Ulrich; Klein, Sabine D; Streuli, Jürg C; Baumann-Hölzle, Ruth; Fauchère, Jean-Claude

2017-03-21

Extreme prematurity can result in long-term disabilities. Its impact on society is often not taken into account and deemed controversial. Our study examined attitudes of the Swiss population regarding extreme prematurity and people's perspectives regarding the question of solidarity with disabled people. We conducted a nationwide representative anonymous telephone survey with 1210 Swiss residents aged 18 years or older. We asked how people estimate their own personal solidarity, the solidarity of their social environment and the solidarity across the country with disabled persons. Spearman's correlation calculations were used to assess if a correlation exists between solidarity and setting financial limits to intensive care and between solidarity and withholding neonatal intensive care. According to 36.0% of the respondents intensive medical care should not be withheld from extremely preterm infants, even if their chances for an acceptable quality of life were poor. For 28.8%, intensive care should be withheld from these infants, and 26.9% held an intermediate position depending on the situation. A total of 31.5% were against setting a financial limit to treatment of extremely preterm newborns with an uncertain future quality of life, 34.2% were in favour and 26.9% were deliberating. A majority (88.8%) considered their solidarity toward disabled people as substantial; the solidarity of their personal environment and of the society at large was estimated as high by 79.1% and 48.6%, respectively. The Swiss population expressed a high level of solidarity which may alleviate some pressure on parents and health care providers in the decision-making process in neonatal intensive care units. In addition, there was no relationship between solidarity and people's willingness to pay for the care or withholding treatment of extremely preterm babies.

Asymmetry of magnetic motor evoked potentials recorded in calf muscles of the dominant and non-dominant lower extremity.

PubMed

Olex-Zarychta, Dorota; Koprowski, Robert; Sobota, Grzegorz; Wróbel, Zygmunt

2009-08-07

The aim of the study was to determine the applicability of magnetic stimulation and magnetic motor evoked potentials (MEPs) in motor asymmetry studies by obtaining quantitative and qualitative measures of efferent activity during low intensity magnetic stimulation of the dominant and non-dominant lower extremities. Magnetic stimulation of the tibial nerve in the popliteal fossa was performed in 10 healthy male right-handed and right-footed young adults. Responses were recorded from the lateral head of the gastrocnemius muscles of the right and left lower extremities. Response characteristics (duration, onset latency, amplitude) were analyzed in relation to the functional dominance of the limbs and in relation to the direction of the current in the magnetic coil by use of the Wilcoxon pair sequence test. The CCW direction of coil current was related to reduced amplitudes of recorded MEPs. Greater amplitudes of evoked potentials were recorded in the non-dominant extremity, both in the CW and CCW coil current directions, with the statistical significance of this effect (p=0.005). No differences in duration of response were found in the CW current direction, while in CCW the time of the left-side response was prolonged (p=0.01). In the non-dominant extremity longer onset latencies were recorded in both current directions, but only for the CW direction the side asymmetries showed a statistical significance of p=0.005. In the dominant extremity the stimulation correlated with stronger paresthesias, especially using the CCW direction of coil current. The results indicate that low intensity magnetic stimulation may be useful in quantitative and qualitative research into the motor asymmetry.

Depth resolution and preferential sputtering in depth profiling of sharp interfaces

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hofmann, S.; Han, Y. S.; Wang, J. Y.

2017-07-01

The influence of preferential sputtering on depth resolution of sputter depth profiles is studied for different sputtering rates of the two components at an A/B interface. Surface concentration and intensity depth profiles on both the sputtering time scale (as measured) and the depth scale are obtained by calculations with an extended Mixing-Roughness-Information depth (MRI)-model. The results show a clear difference for the two extreme cases (a) preponderant roughness and (b) preponderant atomic mixing. In case (a), the interface width on the time scale (Δt(16-84%)) increases with preferential sputtering if the faster sputtering component is on top of the slower sputtering component, but the true resolution on the depth scale (Δz(16-84%)) stays constant. In case (b), the interface width on the time scale stays constant but the true resolution on the depth scale varies with preferential sputtering. For similar order of magnitude of the atomic mixing and the roughness parameters, a transition state between the two extremes is obtained. While the normalized intensity profile of SIMS represents that of the surface concentration, an additional broadening effect is encountered in XPS or AES by the influence of the mean electron escape depth which may even cause an additional matrix effect at the interface.

Comparison of the hedonic general Labeled Magnitude Scale with the hedonic 9-point scale.

PubMed

Kalva, Jaclyn J; Sims, Charles A; Puentes, Lorenzo A; Snyder, Derek J; Bartoshuk, Linda M

2014-02-01

The hedonic 9-point scale was designed to compare palatability among different food items; however, it has also been used occasionally to compare individuals and groups. Such comparisons can be invalid because scale labels (for example, "like extremely") can denote systematically different hedonic intensities across some groups. Addressing this problem, the hedonic general Labeled Magnitude Scale (gLMS) frames affective experience in terms of the strongest imaginable liking/disliking of any kind, which can yield valid group comparisons of food palatability provided extreme hedonic experiences are unrelated to food. For each scale, 200 panelists rated affect for remembered food products (including favorite and least favorite foods) and sampled foods; they also sampled taste stimuli (quinine, sucrose, NaCl, citric acid) and rated their intensity. Finally, subjects identified experiences representing the endpoints of the hedonic gLMS. Both scales were similar in their ability to detect within-subject hedonic differences across a range of food experiences, but group comparisons favored the hedonic gLMS. With the 9-point scale, extreme labels were strongly associated with extremes in food affect. In contrast, gLMS data showed that scale extremes referenced nonfood experiences. Perceived taste intensity significantly influenced differences in food liking/disliking (for example, those experiencing the most intense tastes, called supertasters, showed more extreme liking and disliking for their favorite and least favorite foods). Scales like the hedonic gLMS are suitable for across-group comparisons of food palatability. © 2014 Institute of Food Technologists®

Spontaneous Coronary Artery Dissection

MedlinePlus

... blood vessels. Fibromuscular dysplasia occurs more often in women than it does in men. Extreme physical exercise. People who recently participated in extreme or intense exercises, such as extreme aerobic activities, may be at higher risk of SCAD. Severe ...

Thermomechanical analysis of fast-burst reactors

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Miller, J.D.

1994-08-01

Fast-burst reactors are designed to provide intense, short-duration pulses of neutrons. The fission reaction also produces extreme time-dependent heating of the nuclear fuel. An existing transient-dynamic finite element code was modified specifically to compute the time-dependent stresses and displacements due to thermal shock loads of reactors. Thermomechanical analysis was then applied to determine structural feasibility of various concepts for an EDNA-type reactor and to optimize the mechanical design of the new SPR III-M reactor.

Effects of extreme spring temperatures on phenology: a case study from Munich and Ingolstadt

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jochner, Susanne; Menzel, Annette

2010-05-01

Extreme events - e.g. warm spells or heavy precipitation events - are likely to increase in the future both in frequency and intensity. Therefore, research on extreme events gains new importance; also in terms of plant development which is mostly triggered by temperatures. An arising question is how plants respond to an extreme warm spell when following an extreme cold winter season. This situation could be studied in spring 2009 in the greater area of Munich and Ingolstadt by phenological observations of flowering and leaf unfolding of birch (Betula pendula L.) and flowering of horse chestnut (Aesculus hippocastanum L.). The long chilling period of winter 2008 and spring 2009 was followed by an immediate strong forcing of flowering and leaf unfolding, especially for birch. This extreme weather situation diminished the difference between urban and rural dates of onset. Another important fact that could be observed in the proceeding period of December 2008 to April 2009 was the reduced temperature difference among urban and rural sites (urban heat island effect). Long-term observations (1951-2008) of the phenological network of the German Meteorological Service (DWD) were used to identify years with reduced urban-rural differences between onset times in the greater area of Munich in the past. Statistical analyses were conducted in order to answer the question whether the sequence of extreme warm and cold events leads to a decreased difference in phenological onset times or if this behaviour can be attributed to extreme warm springs themselves or to the decreased urban heat island effect which is mostly affected by general atmospheric circulation patterns.

A Dosimetric Comparison of Proton and Intensity Modulated Radiation Therapy in Pediatric Rhabdomyosarcoma Patients Enrolled on a Prospective Phase II Proton Study

PubMed Central

Ladra, Matthew M.; Edgington, Samantha K.; Mahajan, Anita; Grosshans, David; Szymonifka, Jackie; Khan, Fazal; Moteabbed, Maryam; Friedmann, Alison M.; MacDonald, Shannon M.; Tarbell, Nancy J.; Yock, Torunn I.

2015-01-01

Background Pediatric rhabdomyosarcoma (RMS) is highly curable, however, cure may come with significant radiation related toxicity in developing tissues. Proton therapy (PT) can spare excess dose to normal structures, potentially reducing the incidence of adverse effects. Methods Between 2005 and 2012, 54 patients were enrolled on a prospective multi-institutional phase II trial using PT in pediatric RMS. As part of the protocol, intensity modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) plans were generated for comparison with clinical PT plans. Results Target coverage was comparable between PT and IMRT plans with a mean CTV V95 of 100% for both modalities (p=0.82). However, mean integral dose was 1.8 times higher for IMRT (range 1.0-4.9). By site, mean integral dose for IMRT was 1.8 times higher for H&N (p<0.01) and GU (p=0.02), 2.0 times higher for trunk/extremity (p<0.01), and 3.5 times higher for orbit (p<0.01) compared to PT. Significant sparing was seen with PT in 26 of 30 critical structures assessed for orbital, head and neck, pelvic, and trunk/extremity patients. Conclusions Proton radiation lowers integral dose and improves normal tissue sparing when compared to IMRT for pediatric RMS. Correlation with clinical outcomes is necessary once mature long-term toxicity data are available. PMID:25443861

Magnetic Field Diagnostics and Spatio-Temporal Variability of the Solar Transition Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peter, H.

2013-12-01

Magnetic field diagnostics of the transition region from the chromosphere to the corona faces us with the problem that one has to apply extreme-ultraviolet (EUV) spectro-polarimetry. While for the coronal diagnostics techniques already exist in the form of infrared coronagraphy above the limb and radio observations on the disk, one has to investigate EUV observations for the transition region. However, so far the success of such observations has been limited, but various current projects aim to obtain spectro-polarimetric data in the extreme UV in the near future. Therefore it is timely to study the polarimetric signals we can expect from these observations through realistic forward modeling. We employ a 3D magneto-hydrodynamic (MHD) forward model of the solar corona and synthesize the Stokes I and Stokes V profiles of C iv (1548 Å). A signal well above 0.001 in Stokes V can be expected even if one integrates for several minutes to reach the required signal-to-noise ratio, and despite the rapidly changing intensity in the model (just as in observations). This variability of the intensity is often used as an argument against transition region magnetic diagnostics, which requires exposure times of minutes. However, the magnetic field is evolving much slower than the intensity, and therefore the degree of (circular) polarization remains rather constant when one integrates in time. Our study shows that it is possible to measure the transition region magnetic field if a polarimetric accuracy on the order of 0.001 can be reached, which we can expect from planned instrumentation.

MESSENGER Observations of Extreme Loading and Unloading of Mercury's Magnetic Tail

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Slavin, James A.; Anderson, Brian J.; Baker, Daniel N.; Benna, Mehdi; Boardsen, Scott A.; Gloeckler, George; Gold, Robert E.; Ho, George C.; Korth, Haje; Krimigis, Stamatios M.;

The extreme ultraviolet emissions of solar flares - A comparison between OSO-6 spectroheliograph observations and SFDs.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Donnelly, R. F.; Wood, A. T., Jr.; Noyes, R. W.

1973-01-01

The time structure and intensity of OSO-6 observations of EUV bursts were studied in relation to the corresponding 10-1030 A enhancements deduced from SFD data. Impulsive EUV emissions from lines normally emitted from either the chromosphere or from the chromosphere-corona transition region rise simultaneously with the 10-1030 A flash, to within the time resolution of the OSO-6 observations. Mg X 625 A also showed concurrent impulsive emissions and a close intensity relation to the 10-1030 A enhancement. The observational results are consistent with the hypothesis that most of the EUV radiation is being produced thermally in a region of chromospheric density, which is being heated by collisional losses of nonthermal electrons.

Long-term trends and variability of total and extreme precipitation in Thailand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Limsakul, Atsamon; Singhruck, Patama

2016-03-01

Based on quality-controlled daily station data, long-term trends and variability of total and extreme precipitation indices during 1955-2014 were examined for Thailand. An analysis showed that while precipitation events have been less frequent across most of Thailand, they have become more intense. Moreover, the indices measuring the magnitude of intense precipitation events indicate a trend toward wetter conditions, with heavy precipitation contributing a greater fraction to annual totals. One consequence of this change is the increased frequency and severity of flash floods as recently evidenced in many parts of Thailand. On interannual-to-interdecadal time scales, significant relationships between variability of precipitation indices and the indices for the state of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) were found. These results provide additional evidence that large-scale climate phenomena in the Pacific Ocean are remote drivers of variability in Thailand's total and extreme precipitation. Thailand tended to have greater amounts of precipitation and more extreme events during La Niña years and the PDO cool phase, and vice versa during El Niño years and the PDO warm phase. Another noteworthy finding is that in 2011 Thailand experienced extensive flooding in a year characterized by exceptionally extreme precipitation events. Our results are consistent with the regional studies for the Asia-Pacific Network. However, this study provides a more detailed picture of coherent trends at a station scale and documents changes that have occurred in the twenty-first century, both of which help to inform decisions concerning effective management strategies.

Dealing with Non-stationarity in Intensity-Frequency-Duration Curve

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rengaraju, S.; Rajendran, V.; C T, D.

2017-12-01

Extremes like flood and drought are becoming frequent and more vulnerable in recent times, generally attributed to the recent revelation of climate change. One of the main concerns is that whether the present infrastructures like dams, storm water drainage networks, etc., which were designed following the so called `stationary' assumption, are capable of withstanding the expected severe extremes. Stationary assumption considers that extremes are not changing with respect to time. However, recent studies proved that climate change has altered the climate extremes both temporally and spatially. Traditionally, the observed non-stationary in the extreme precipitation is incorporated in the extreme value distributions in terms of changing parameters. Nevertheless, this raises a question which parameter needs to be changed, i.e. location or scale or shape, since either one or more of these parameters vary at a given location. Hence, this study aims to detect the changing parameters to reduce the complexity involved in the development of non-stationary IDF curve and to provide the uncertainty bound of estimated return level using Bayesian Differential Evolutionary Monte Carlo (DE-MC) algorithm. Firstly, the extreme precipitation series is extracted using Peak Over Threshold. Then, the time varying parameter(s) is(are) detected for the extracted series using Generalized Additive Models for Location Scale and Shape (GAMLSS). Then, the IDF curve is constructed using Generalized Pareto Distribution incorporating non-stationarity only if the parameter(s) is(are) changing with respect to time, otherwise IDF curve will follow stationary assumption. Finally, the posterior probability intervals of estimated return revel are computed through Bayesian DE-MC approach and the non-stationary based IDF curve is compared with the stationary based IDF curve. The results of this study emphasize that the time varying parameters also change spatially and the IDF curves should incorporate non-stationarity only if there is change in the parameters, though there may be significant change in the extreme rainfall series. Our results evoke the importance of updating the infrastructure design strategies for the changing climate, by adopting the non-stationary based IDF curves.

Feasibility and tolerability of whole‐body, low‐intensity vibration and its effects on muscle function and bone in patients with dystrophinopathies: a pilot study

PubMed Central

Polgreen, Lynda E.; Grames, Molly; Lowe, Dawn A.; Hodges, James S.; Karachunski, Peter

2017-01-01

ABSTRACT Introduction Dystrophinopathies are X‐linked muscle degenerative disorders that result in progressive muscle weakness complicated by bone loss. This study's goal was to evaluate feasibility and tolerability of whole‐body, low‐intensity vibration (WBLIV) and its potential effects on muscle and bone in patients with Duchenne or Becker muscular dystrophy. Methods This 12‐month pilot study included 5 patients (age 5.9–21.7 years) who used a low‐intensity Marodyne LivMD plate vibrating at 30–90 Hz for 10 min/day for the first 6 months. Timed motor function tests, myometry, and peripheral quantitative computed tomography were performed at baseline and at 6 and 12 months. Results Motor function and lower extremity muscle strength remained either unchanged or improved during the intervention phase, followed by deterioration after WBLIV discontinuation. Indices of bone density and geometry remained stable in the tibia. Conclusions WBLIV was well tolerated and appeared to have a stabilizing effect on lower extremity muscle function and bone measures. Muscle Nerve 55: 875–883, 2017 PMID:27718512

Light and Movement: Making Contact with a Traumatised and Embattled Latency Girl

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Allnutt, Louise

2010-01-01

This paper shows a child psychotherapist learning and developing her technique as she attempts to make contact with a child who is extremely hard to reach. It is based on the first two years of three-times-weekly intensive psychotherapy of a latency girl who had little faith in a helpful therapeutic relationship. Her defences against such a…

Towards Wearable Cognitive Assistance

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-12-01

ABSTRACT unclassified c. THIS PAGE unclassified Standard Form 298 (Rev. 8-98) Prescribed by ANSI Std Z39-18 Keywords: mobile computing, cloud...It presents a muli-tiered mobile system architecture that offers tight end-to-end latency bounds on compute-intensive cognitive assistance...to an entire neighborhood or an entire city is extremely expensive and time-consuming. Physical infrastructure in public spaces tends to evolve very

Regional frequency analysis of extreme rainfall for the Baltimore Metropolitan region based on stochastic storm transposition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Z.; Smith, J. A.; Yang, L.; Baeck, M. L.; Wright, D.; Liu, S.

2017-12-01

Regional frequency analyses of extreme rainfall are critical for development of engineering hydrometeorology procedures. In conventional approaches, the assumptions that `design storms' have specified time profiles and are uniform in space are commonly applied but often not appropriate, especially over regions with heterogeneous environments (due to topography, water-land boundaries and land surface properties). In this study, we present regional frequency analyses of extreme rainfall for Baltimore study region combining storm catalogs of rainfall fields derived from weather radar and stochastic storm transposition (SST, developed by Wright et al., 2013). The study region is Dead Run, a small (14.3 km2) urban watershed, in the Baltimore Metropolitan region. Our analyses build on previous empirical and modeling studies showing pronounced spatial heterogeneities in rainfall due to the complex terrain, including the Chesapeake Bay to the east, mountainous terrain to the west and urbanization in this region. We expand the original SST approach by applying a multiplier field that accounts for spatial heterogeneities in extreme rainfall. We also characterize the spatial heterogeneities of extreme rainfall distribution through analyses of rainfall fields in the storm catalogs. We examine the characteristics of regional extreme rainfall and derive intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves using the SST approach for heterogeneous regions. Our results highlight the significant heterogeneity of extreme rainfall in this region. Estimates of IDF show the advantages of SST in capturing the space-time structure of extreme rainfall. We also illustrate application of SST analyses for flood frequency analyses using a distributed hydrological model. Reference: Wright, D. B., J. A. Smith, G. Villarini, and M. L. Baeck (2013), Estimating the frequency of extreme rainfall using weather radar and stochastic storm transposition, J. Hydrol., 488, 150-165.

Nanofocusing of the free-space optical energy with plasmonic Tamm states.

PubMed

Niu, Linyu; Xiang, Yinxiao; Luo, Weiwei; Cai, Wei; Qi, Jiwei; Zhang, Xinzheng; Xu, Jingjun

2016-12-20

To achieve extreme electromagnetic enhancement, we propose a plasmonic Tamm states (PTSs) configuration based on the metal-insulator-metal Bragg reflector, which is realized by periodically modulating the width of the insulator. Both the thick (2D) and thin (3D) structures are discussed. Through optimization performed by the impedance-based transfer matrix method and the finite difference time domain method, we find that both the electric field and magnetic field intensities can be increased by three orders of magnitude. The field-enhancement inside the PTSs configuration is not limited to extremely sharp waveguide terminal, which can greatly reduce processing difficulties.

Rabi oscillations in extreme ultraviolet ionization of atomic argon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Flögel, Martin; Durá, Judith; Schütte, Bernd; Ivanov, Misha; Rouzée, Arnaud; Vrakking, Marc J. J.

2017-02-01

We demonstrate Rabi oscillations in nonlinear ionization of argon by an intense femtosecond extreme ultraviolet (XUV) laser field produced by high-harmonic generation. We monitor the formation of A r2 + as a function of the time delay between the XUV pulse and an additional near-infrared (NIR) femtosecond laser pulse, and show that the population of an A r+* intermediate resonance exhibits strong modulations both due to an NIR laser-induced Stark shift and XUV-induced Rabi cycling between the ground state of A r+ and the A r+* excited state. Our experiment represents a direct experimental observation of a Rabi-cycling process in the XUV regime.

Note: Enhancement of the extreme ultraviolet emission from a potassium plasma by dual laser irradiation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Higashiguchi, Takeshi, E-mail: higashi@cc.utsunomiya-u.ac.jp; Yamaguchi, Mami; Otsuka, Takamitsu

2014-09-15

Emission spectra from multiply charged potassium ions ranging from K{sup 3+} to K{sup 5+} have been obtained in the extreme ultraviolet (EUV) spectral region. A strong emission feature peaking around 38 nm, corresponding to a photon energy of 32.6 eV, is the dominant spectral feature at time-averaged electron temperatures in the range of 8−12 eV. The variation of this emission with laser intensity and the effects of pre-pulses on the relative conversion efficiency (CE) have been explored experimentally and indicate that an enhancement of about 30% in EUV CE is readily attainable.

Carrier-envelope phase-stabilized attosecond pulses from asymmetric molecules

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lan Pengfei; Lu Peixiang; Cao Wei

2007-08-15

High-order harmonic generation from asymmetric molecules is investigated, and the concept of phase-stabilized infrared ultrashort laser pulses is extended to the extreme ultraviolet regime. It is shown that the ionization symmetry in consecutive half optical cycles is broken for asymmetric molecules, and both even and odd harmonics with comparable intensity are produced. In the time domain, only one attosecond pulse is generated in each cycle of the driving field, and the carrier-envelope phases of the attosecond pulses are equal. Consequently, a clean attosecond pulse train with the same carrier-envelope phase from pulse to pulse is obtained in the extreme ultravioletmore » regime.« less

Future Projection of Summer Extreme Precipitation from High Resolution Multi-RCMs over East Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Gayoung; Park, Changyong; Cha, Dong-Hyun; Lee, Dong-Kyou; Suh, Myoung-Seok; Ahn, Joong-Bae; Min, Seung-Ki; Hong, Song-You; Kang, Hyun-Suk

2017-04-01

Recently, the frequency and intensity of natural hazards have been increasing due to human-induced climate change. Because most damages of natural hazards over East Asia have been related to extreme precipitation events, it is important to estimate future change in extreme precipitation characteristics caused by climate change. We investigate future changes in extremal values of summer precipitation simulated by five regional climate models participating in the CORDEX-East Asia project (i.e., HadGEM3-RA, RegCM4, MM5, WRF, and GRIMs) over East Asia. 100-year return value calculated from the generalized extreme value (GEV) parameters is analysed as an indicator of extreme intensity. In the future climate, the mean values as well as the extreme values of daily precipitation tend to increase over land region. The increase of 100-year return value can be significantly associated with the changes in the location (intensity) and scale (variability) GEV parameters for extreme precipitation. It is expected that the results of this study can be used as fruitful references when making the policy of disaster management. Acknowledgements The research was supported by the Ministry of Public Safety and Security of Korean government and Development program under grant MPSS-NH-2013-63 and the National Research Foundation of Korea Grant funded by the Ministry of Science, ICT and Future Planning of Korea (NRF-2016M3C4A7952637) for its support and assistant in completion of the study.

Weathering a Perfect Storm from Space

USGS Publications Warehouse

Love, Jeffrey J.

2016-01-01

Extreme space-weather events — intense solar and geomagnetic storms — have occurred in the past: most recently in 1859, 1921 and 1989. So scientists expect that, sooner or later, another extremely intense spaceweather event will strike Earth again. Such storms have the potential to cause widespread interference with and damage to technological systems. A National Academy of Sciences study projects that an extreme space-weather event could end up costing the American economy more than $1 trillion. The question now is whether or not we will take the actions needed to avoid such expensive consequences. Let’s assume that we do. Below is an imagined scenario of how, sometime in the future, an extreme space-weather event might play out.

Nonequilibrium Interlayer Transport in Pulsed Laser Deposition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tischler, J. Z.; Eres, Gyula; Larson, B. C.; Rouleau, Christopher M.; Zschack, P.; Lowndes, Douglas H.

2006-06-01

We use time-resolved surface x-ray diffraction measurements with microsecond range resolution to study the growth kinetics of pulsed laser deposited SrTiO3. Time-dependent surface coverages corresponding to single laser shots were determined directly from crystal truncation rod intensity transients. Analysis of surface coverage evolution shows that extremely fast nonequilibrium interlayer transport, which occurs concurrently with the arrival of the laser plume, dominates the deposition process. A much smaller fraction of material, which is governed by the dwell time between successive laser shots, is transferred by slow, thermally driven interlayer transport processes.

Task modulation of the effects of brightness on reaction time and response force.

PubMed

Jaśkowski, Piotr; Włodarczyk, Dariusz

2006-08-01

Van der Molen and Keuss [van der Molen, M.W., Keuss, P.J.G., 1979. The relationship between reaction time and intensity in discrete auditory tasks. Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology 31, 95-102; van der Molen, M.W., Keuss, P.J.G., 1981. Response selection and the processing of auditory intensity. Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology 33, 177-184] showed that paradoxically long reaction times (RT) occur with extremely loud auditory stimuli when the task is difficult (e.g. needs a response choice). It was argued that this paradoxical behavior of RT is due to active suppression of response prompting to prevent false responses. In the present experiments, we demonstrated that such an effect can also occur for visual stimuli provided that they are large enough. Additionally, we showed that response force exerted by participants on response keys monotonically grew with intensity for large stimuli but was independent of intensity for small visual stimuli. Bearing in mind that only large stimuli are believed to be arousing this pattern of results supports the arousal interpretation of the negative effect of loud stimuli on RT given by van der Molen and Keuss.

Extreme Precipitation and Runoff under Changing Climate in Southern Maine

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yan, Eugene; Jared, Alissa; Mahat, Vinod

The quantification of extreme precipitation events is vitally important for designing and engineering water and flood sensitive infrastructure. Since this kind of infrastructure is usually built to last much longer than 10, 50, or even 100 years, there is great need for statistically sound estimates of the intensity of 10-, 50-, 100-, and 500-year rainstorms and associated floods. The recent assessment indicated that the intensity of the most extreme precipitation events (or the heaviest 1% of all daily events) have increased in every region of the contiguous states since the 1950s (Melillo et al. 2014). The maximum change in precipitationmore » intensity of extreme events occurred in the northeast region reaching 71%. The precipitation extremes can be characterized using intensity-duration-frequency analysis (IDF). However, the current IDFs in this region were developed around the assumption that climate condition remains stationary over the next 50 or 100 years. To better characterize the potential flood risk, this project will (1) develop precipitation IDFs on the basis of both historical observations and future climate projections from dynamic downscaling with Argonne National Laboratory’s (Argonne’s) regional climate model and (2) develop runoff IDFs using precipitation IDFs for the Casco Bay Watershed. IDF development also considers non-stationary distribution models and snowmelt effects that are not incorporated in the current IDFs.« less

Will extreme climatic events facilitate biological invasions?

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Extreme climatic events, such as intense heat waves, hurricanes, floods and droughts, can dramatically affect ecological and evolutionary processes, and more extreme events are projected with ongoing climate change. However, the implications of these events for biological invasions, which themselves...

Applying Customized Climate Advisory Information to Translate Extreme Rainfall Events into Farming Options in the Sudan-Sahel of West Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salack, S.; Worou, N. O.; Sanfo, S.; Nikiema, M. P.; Boubacar, I.; Paturel, J. E.; Tondoh, E. J.

2017-12-01

In West Africa, the risk of food insecurity linked to the low productivity of small holder farming increases as a result of rainfall extremes. In its recent evolution, the rainy season in the Sudan-Sahel zone presents mixed patterns of extreme climatic events. In addition to intense rain events, the distribution of events is associated with pockets of intra-seasonal long dry spells. The negative consequences of these mixed patterns are obvious on the farm: soil water logging, erosion of arable land, dwartness and dessication of crops, and loss in production. The capacity of local farming communities to respond accordingly to rainfall extreme events is often constrained by lack of access to climate information and advisory on smart crop management practices that can help translate extreme rainfall events into farming options. The objective of this work is to expose the framework and the pre-liminary results of a scheme that customizes climate-advisory information package delivery to subsistence farmers in Bakel (Senegal), Ouahigouya & Dano (Burkina Faso) and Bolgatanga (Ghana) for sustainable family agriculture. The package is based on the provision of timely climate information (48-hours, dekadal & seasonal) embedded with smart crop management practices to explore and exploite the potential advantage of intense rainfall and extreme dry spells in millet, maize, sorghum and cowpea farming communities. It is sent via mobile phones and used on selected farms (i.e agro-climatic farm schools) on which some small on-farm infrastructure were built to alleviate negative impacts of weather. Results provide prominent insight on how co-production of weather/climate information, customized access and guidiance on its use can induce fast learning (capacity building of actors), motivation for adaptation, sustainability, potential changes in cropping system, yields and family income in the face of a rainfall extremes at local scales of Sudan-Sahel of West Africa. Keywords: Climate Information, Smart Practices, Farming Options, Agro-Climatic Farm Schools, Sudan-Sahel

Resilience of coastal wetlands to extreme hydrologicevents in Apalachicola Bay

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Medeiros, S. C.; Singh, A.; Tahsin, S.

2017-12-01

Extreme hydrologic events such as hurricanes and droughts continuously threaten wetlands which provide key ecosystem services in coastal areas. The recovery time for vegetation after impact fromthese extreme events can be highly variable depending on the hazard type and intensity. Apalachicola Bay in Florida is home to a rich variety of saltwater and freshwater wetlands and is subject to a wide rangeof hydrologic hazards. Using spatiotemporal changes in Landsat-based empirical vegetation indices, we investigate the impact of hurricane and drought on both freshwater and saltwater wetlands from year 2000to 2015 in Apalachicola Bay. Our results indicate that saltwater wetlands are more resilient than freshwater wetlands and suggest that in response to hurricanes, the coastal wetlands took almost a year to recover,while recovery following a drought period was observed after only a month.

An efficient abnormal cervical cell detection system based on multi-instance extreme learning machine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Lili; Yin, Jianping; Yuan, Lihuan; Liu, Qiang; Li, Kuan; Qiu, Minghui

2017-07-01

Automatic detection of abnormal cells from cervical smear images is extremely demanded in annual diagnosis of women's cervical cancer. For this medical cell recognition problem, there are three different feature sections, namely cytology morphology, nuclear chromatin pathology and region intensity. The challenges of this problem come from feature combination s and classification accurately and efficiently. Thus, we propose an efficient abnormal cervical cell detection system based on multi-instance extreme learning machine (MI-ELM) to deal with above two questions in one unified framework. MI-ELM is one of the most promising supervised learning classifiers which can deal with several feature sections and realistic classification problems analytically. Experiment results over Herlev dataset demonstrate that the proposed method outperforms three traditional methods for two-class classification in terms of well accuracy and less time.

Resilience of coastal wetlands to extreme hydrologic events in Apalachicola Bay

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tahsin, Subrina; Medeiros, Stephen C.; Singh, Arvind

2016-07-01

Extreme hydrologic events such as hurricanes and droughts continuously threaten wetlands which provide key ecosystem services in coastal areas. The recovery time for vegetation after impact from these extreme events can be highly variable depending on the hazard type and intensity. Apalachicola Bay in Florida is home to a rich variety of saltwater and freshwater wetlands and is subject to a wide range of hydrologic hazards. Using spatiotemporal changes in Landsat-based empirical vegetation indices, we investigate the impact of hurricane and drought on both freshwater and saltwater wetlands from year 2000 to 2015 in Apalachicola Bay. Our results indicate that saltwater wetlands are more resilient than freshwater wetlands and suggest that in response to hurricanes, the coastal wetlands took almost a year to recover, while recovery following a drought period was observed after only a month.

Changes in Hydrological Extremes and its Relation to Climate Variability in Mountainous Watershed: A Case Study from Gandaki River Basin, Nepal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shrestha, N. S.; Dahal, P.

2016-12-01

Changes in the hydrological extreme are expected due to climate variability and are needed to assess at local and regional scales since these changes are not uniform over the globe. This study analyses the changes in intensity, frequency and persistence hydrological extreme in Gandaki River Basin (GRB) Nepal over past and future and its relation to climate variability. Hydrological data of 12 different hydrological stations covering all the sub basins of Gandaki River Basin were analyzed. At least 1 hydrological station in each sub basin to the maximum of 3 was taken into consideration for this study. Results show that hydrological extreme have increased in intensity, frequency and persistence over recent year and are predicted to increase in future (2030-2060). The time-series analysis revealed an increase in the magnitude, frequency and duration of flood and drought. The instantaneous maximum flow, flood events and duration of flood events are found to have increasing trend. The minimum discharge was observed to be decreasing which entails that the water availability in the driest time is decreasing. Trend analysis of seasonal flow revealed an increase in monsoon flows and decreasing in post monsoon. Changes in climate variability over the same period shows higher anomalies in both temperature and precipitation in recent decades (1990s and 2000s) compared to the baseline period (1970-2000). Model suggests an increasing trend in annual flows with the increase more pronounced in 2060s. Significant increase in extreme flows and subsequent decrease in dependable flows suggest increase in frequency of isolated extreme flows followed by prolonged dry spells. Data also showed that the mean temperature will be increasing from 1.9 0C to 3.1 0C and precipitation will be changing by -8% to +12% in 2031-2060 compared to the baseline period. For long-term planning and management of water resources, current trend and future change in the pattern of water availability should be analysed well in advance. Climate change with intensifying extreme events will likely have serious consequences on the hydrological changes. Therefore, this study would be useful in understanding how the hydrological regime has been changing with climate change in mountainous watershed.

Mechanistic experimental pain assessment in computer users with and without chronic musculoskeletal pain.

PubMed

Ge, Hong-You; Vangsgaard, Steffen; Omland, Øyvind; Madeleine, Pascal; Arendt-Nielsen, Lars

2014-12-06

Musculoskeletal pain from the upper extremity and shoulder region is commonly reported by computer users. However, the functional status of central pain mechanisms, i.e., central sensitization and conditioned pain modulation (CPM), has not been investigated in this population. The aim was to evaluate sensitization and CPM in computer users with and without chronic musculoskeletal pain. Pressure pain threshold (PPT) mapping in the neck-shoulder (15 points) and the elbow (12 points) was assessed together with PPT measurement at mid-point in the tibialis anterior (TA) muscle among 47 computer users with chronic pain in the upper extremity and/or neck-shoulder pain (pain group) and 17 pain-free computer users (control group). Induced pain intensities and profiles over time were recorded using a 0-10 cm electronic visual analogue scale (VAS) in response to different levels of pressure stimuli on the forearm with a new technique of dynamic pressure algometry. The efficiency of CPM was assessed using cuff-induced pain as conditioning pain stimulus and PPT at TA as test stimulus. The demographics, job seniority and number of working hours/week using a computer were similar between groups. The PPTs measured at all 15 points in the neck-shoulder region were not significantly different between groups. There were no significant differences between groups neither in PPTs nor pain intensity induced by dynamic pressure algometry. No significant difference in PPT was observed in TA between groups. During CPM, a significant increase in PPT at TA was observed in both groups (P < 0.05) without significant differences between groups. For the chronic pain group, higher clinical pain intensity, lower PPT values from the neck-shoulder and higher pain intensity evoked by the roller were all correlated with less efficient descending pain modulation (P < 0.05). This suggests that the excitability of the central pain system is normal in a large group of computer users with low pain intensity chronic upper extremity and/or neck-shoulder pain and that increased excitability of the pain system cannot explain the reported pain. However, computer users with higher pain intensity and lower PPTs were found to have decreased efficiency in descending pain modulation.

Rapid decadal convective precipitation increase over Eurasia during the last three decades of the 20th century.

PubMed

Ye, Hengchun; Fetzer, Eric J; Wong, Sun; Lambrigtsen, Bjorn H

2017-01-01

Convective precipitation-localized, short-lived, intense, and sometimes violent-is at the root of challenges associated with observation, simulation, and prediction of precipitation. The understanding of long-term changes in convective precipitation characteristics and their role in precipitation extremes and intensity over extratropical regions are imperative to future water resource management; however, they have been studied very little. We show that annual convective precipitation total has been increasing astonishingly fast, at a rate of 18.4%/°C, of which 16% is attributable to an increase in convective precipitation occurrence, and 2.4% is attributable to increased daily intensity based on the 35 years of two (combined) historical data sets of 3-hourly synoptic observations and daily precipitation. We also reveal that annual daily precipitation extreme has been increasing at a rate of about 7.4%/°C in convective events only. Concurrently, the overall increase in mean daily precipitation intensity is mostly due to increased convective precipitation, possibly at the expanse of nonconvective precipitation. As a result, transitional seasons are becoming more summer-like as convective becomes the dominant precipitation type that has accompanied higher daily extremes and intensity since the late 1980s. The data also demonstrate that increasing convective precipitation and daily extremes appear to be directly linearly associated with higher atmospheric water vapor accompanying a warming climate over northern Eurasia.

Rapid decadal convective precipitation increase over Eurasia during the last three decades of the 20th century

PubMed Central

Ye, Hengchun; Fetzer, Eric J.; Wong, Sun; Lambrigtsen, Bjorn H.

2017-01-01

Convective precipitation—localized, short-lived, intense, and sometimes violent—is at the root of challenges associated with observation, simulation, and prediction of precipitation. The understanding of long-term changes in convective precipitation characteristics and their role in precipitation extremes and intensity over extratropical regions are imperative to future water resource management; however, they have been studied very little. We show that annual convective precipitation total has been increasing astonishingly fast, at a rate of 18.4%/°C, of which 16% is attributable to an increase in convective precipitation occurrence, and 2.4% is attributable to increased daily intensity based on the 35 years of two (combined) historical data sets of 3-hourly synoptic observations and daily precipitation. We also reveal that annual daily precipitation extreme has been increasing at a rate of about 7.4%/°C in convective events only. Concurrently, the overall increase in mean daily precipitation intensity is mostly due to increased convective precipitation, possibly at the expanse of nonconvective precipitation. As a result, transitional seasons are becoming more summer-like as convective becomes the dominant precipitation type that has accompanied higher daily extremes and intensity since the late 1980s. The data also demonstrate that increasing convective precipitation and daily extremes appear to be directly linearly associated with higher atmospheric water vapor accompanying a warming climate over northern Eurasia. PMID:28138545

Temperature and excitation power influence on the velocity-selective optical pumping resonances of 133Cs atoms confined in an extremely thin cell

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vartanyan, T.; Polishchuk, V.; Sargsyan, A.; Krasteva, A.; Cartaleva, St.; Todorov, G.

2018-03-01

Linear and nonlinear absorption spectra of 133Cs vapor confined in an extremely thin cell were computed via iterations with respect to the resonance radiation intensity. When the incident radiation intensity is low, the transient polarization of the atoms that undergo frequent collisions with the cell walls leads to sub-Doppler features in the absorption spectra. Higher incident radiation intensities result in the appearance of velocity-selective optical pumping resonances. The theory developed agrees quantitatively with the experimental findings.

Mean annual precipitation predicts primary production resistance and resilience to extreme drought

DOE PAGES

Stuart-Haëntjens, Ellen; De Boeck, Hans J.; Lemoine, Nathan P.; ...

2018-09-01

Extreme drought is increasing in frequency and intensity in many regions globally, with uncertain consequences for the resistance and resilience of ecosystem functions, including primary production. Primary production resistance, the capacity to withstand change during extreme drought, and resilience, the degree to which production recovers, vary among and within ecosystem types, obscuring generalized patterns of ecological stability. Theory and many observations suggest forest production is more resistant but less resilient than grassland production to extreme drought; however, studies of production sensitivity to precipitation variability indicate that the processes controlling resistance and resilience may be influenced more by mean annual precipitationmore » (MAP) than ecosystem type. Here, we conducted a global meta-analysis to investigate primary production resistance and resilience to extreme drought in 64 forests and grasslands across a broad MAP gradient. We found resistance to extreme drought was predicted by MAP; however, grasslands (positive) and forests (negative) exhibited opposing resilience relationships with MAP. Our findings indicate that common plant physiological mechanisms may determine grassland and forest resistance to extreme drought, whereas differences among plant residents in turnover time, plant architecture, and drought adaptive strategies likely underlie divergent resilience patterns. The low resistance and resilience of dry grasslands suggests that these ecosystems are the most vulnerable to extreme drought – a vulnerability that is expected to compound as extreme drought frequency increases in the future.« less

Mean annual precipitation predicts primary production resistance and resilience to extreme drought.

PubMed

Stuart-Haëntjens, Ellen; De Boeck, Hans J; Lemoine, Nathan P; Mänd, Pille; Kröel-Dulay, György; Schmidt, Inger K; Jentsch, Anke; Stampfli, Andreas; Anderegg, William R L; Bahn, Michael; Kreyling, Juergen; Wohlgemuth, Thomas; Lloret, Francisco; Classen, Aimée T; Gough, Christopher M; Smith, Melinda D

2018-04-27

Extreme drought is increasing in frequency and intensity in many regions globally, with uncertain consequences for the resistance and resilience of ecosystem functions, including primary production. Primary production resistance, the capacity to withstand change during extreme drought, and resilience, the degree to which production recovers, vary among and within ecosystem types, obscuring generalized patterns of ecological stability. Theory and many observations suggest forest production is more resistant but less resilient than grassland production to extreme drought; however, studies of production sensitivity to precipitation variability indicate that the processes controlling resistance and resilience may be influenced more by mean annual precipitation (MAP) than ecosystem type. Here, we conducted a global meta-analysis to investigate primary production resistance and resilience to extreme drought in 64 forests and grasslands across a broad MAP gradient. We found resistance to extreme drought was predicted by MAP; however, grasslands (positive) and forests (negative) exhibited opposing resilience relationships with MAP. Our findings indicate that common plant physiological mechanisms may determine grassland and forest resistance to extreme drought, whereas differences among plant residents in turnover time, plant architecture, and drought adaptive strategies likely underlie divergent resilience patterns. The low resistance and resilience of dry grasslands suggests that these ecosystems are the most vulnerable to extreme drought - a vulnerability that is expected to compound as extreme drought frequency increases in the future. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Mean annual precipitation predicts primary production resistance and resilience to extreme drought

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Stuart-Haëntjens, Ellen; De Boeck, Hans J.; Lemoine, Nathan P.

Extreme drought is increasing in frequency and intensity in many regions globally, with uncertain consequences for the resistance and resilience of ecosystem functions, including primary production. Primary production resistance, the capacity to withstand change during extreme drought, and resilience, the degree to which production recovers, vary among and within ecosystem types, obscuring generalized patterns of ecological stability. Theory and many observations suggest forest production is more resistant but less resilient than grassland production to extreme drought; however, studies of production sensitivity to precipitation variability indicate that the processes controlling resistance and resilience may be influenced more by mean annual precipitationmore » (MAP) than ecosystem type. Here, we conducted a global meta-analysis to investigate primary production resistance and resilience to extreme drought in 64 forests and grasslands across a broad MAP gradient. We found resistance to extreme drought was predicted by MAP; however, grasslands (positive) and forests (negative) exhibited opposing resilience relationships with MAP. Our findings indicate that common plant physiological mechanisms may determine grassland and forest resistance to extreme drought, whereas differences among plant residents in turnover time, plant architecture, and drought adaptive strategies likely underlie divergent resilience patterns. The low resistance and resilience of dry grasslands suggests that these ecosystems are the most vulnerable to extreme drought – a vulnerability that is expected to compound as extreme drought frequency increases in the future.« less

Intense X-ray and EUV light source

DOEpatents

Coleman, Joshua; Ekdahl, Carl; Oertel, John

2017-06-20

An intense X-ray or EUV light source may be driven by the Smith-Purcell effect. The intense light source may utilize intense electron beams and Bragg crystals. This may allow the intense light source to range from the extreme UV range up to the hard X-ray range.

Space-time precipitation extremes for urban hydrology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bardossy, A.; Pegram, G. G. S.

2017-12-01

Precipitation extremes are essential for hydrological design. In urban hydrology intensity duration frequency curves (IDFs) are estimated from observation records to design sewer systems. The conventional approaches seldom consider the areal extent of events. If they do so, duration-dependent area reduction factors (ARFs) are applied. In this contribution we investigate the influence of the size of the target urban area on the frequency of occurrence of extremes. We introduce two new concepts, (i) the maximum over an area and (ii) the sub-areal extremes. The properties of these are discussed. The space-time dependence of extremes strongly influences these statistics. The findings of this presentation show that the risk of urban flooding is routinely underestimated. We do this by sampling a long sequence of radar rainfall fields of 1 km resolution, not the usual limited information from gauge records at scattered point locations. The procedure we use is to generate 20 years of plausible 'radar' fields of 5 minute precipitation on a square frame of 128x128 one kilometer pixels and sample them in a regimented way. In this presentation we find that the traditional calculations are underestimating the extremes [by up to 30 % to 50 % depending on size and duration] and we show how we can revise them sensibly. The methodology we devise from simulated radar fields is checked against the records of a dense network of pluviometers covered by a radar in Baden-Württemberg, with a (regrettably) short 4-year record, as proof of concept.

Modified Graded Motor Imagery for Complex Regional Pain Syndrome Type 1 of the Upper Extremity in the Acute Phase: A Patient Series

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lagueux, Emilie; Charest, Joelle; Lefrancois-Caron, Eve; Mauger, Marie-Eve; Mercier, Emilie; Savard, Kim; Tousignant-Laflamme, Yannick

2012-01-01

Complex regional pain syndrome (CRPS) is a pathologic condition in which the painful experience is disproportionate in time and intensity in comparison with the inciting event. At present, the pathophysiology of CRPS is not well understood. Several studies have indicated that cortical reorganization plays a role in the persistence of the symptoms.…

Trend in frequency of extreme precipitation events over Ontario from ensembles of multiple GCMs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deng, Ziwang; Qiu, Xin; Liu, Jinliang; Madras, Neal; Wang, Xiaogang; Zhu, Huaiping

2016-05-01

As one of the most important extreme weather event types, extreme precipitation events have significant impacts on human and natural environment. This study assesses the projected long term trends in frequency of occurrence of extreme precipitation events represented by heavy precipitation days, very heavy precipitation days, very wet days and extreme wet days over Ontario, based on results of 21 CMIP3 GCM runs. To achieve this goal, first, all model data are linearly interpolated onto 682 grid points (0.45° × 0.45°) in Ontario; Next, biases in model daily precipitation amount are corrected with a local intensity scaling method to make the total wet days and total wet day precipitation from each of the GCMs are consistent with that from the climate forecast system reanalysis data, and then the four indices are estimated for each of the 21 GCM runs for 1968-2000, 2046-2065 and 2081-2100. After that, with the assumption that the rate parameter of the Poisson process for the occurrence of extreme precipitation events may vary with time as climate changes, the Poisson regression model which expresses the log rate as a linear function of time is used to detect the trend in frequency of extreme events in the GCMs simulations; Finally, the trends and their uncertainty are estimated. The result shows that in the twenty-first century annual heavy precipitation days, very heavy precipitation days and very wet days and extreme wet days are likely to significantly increase over major parts of Ontario and particularly heavy precipitation days, very wet days are very likely to significantly increase in some sub-regions in eastern Ontario. However, trends of seasonal indices are not significant.

West Coast atmospheric river climatology in CMIP5 climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Warner, M.; Mass, C.; Salathe, E. P.

2015-12-01

In recent years, there has been a flurry of research on how atmospheric river events (ARs) will respond to anthropogenic global warming. This study uses 10 CMIP5 RCP 8.5 climate models to focus on changes in AR frequency, seasonality, and synoptic conditions along the west coast of the United States and is a follow-up to previous work by the same authors (Warner et al. 2015) which investigated expected changes in AR intensity in the same region. There are only very slight changes in annual AR climatology from the end of the last century to the end of this century when considering the most extreme integrated water vapor transport (IVT) events (99th percentile). However, when evaluating by the number of future days exceeding a historical threshold, there are significant increases in extreme IVT events in all months, especially during months when the majority of events take place. The peaks in historical and future frequency occur in similar months given the amount of model variability. Extreme IVT events appear to be occurring slightly earlier in the season, particularly along the northern US coast, and these results are similar to other studies. Spatially, 10-model mean historical composites of IVT reveal canonical AR conditions. At locations farther south, there is less model agreement on the spatial extent and intensity of AR events; whereas farther north, the various models are in agreement. Composites of future events indicate very little spatial change from historical events. The location and orientation of AR events in the historical and future time periods are similar, and the upper-level winds change little over that time period (Warner et al. 2015). This suggests little change in synoptic conditions for approaching ARs. The future-historical difference plots highlight the largest changes expected in the future, namely increases in IVT intensity which are primarily associated with thermodynamic changes related to future integrated water vapor increases due to a warming atmosphere.

Attribution of extreme rainfall from Hurricane Harvey, August 2017

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van der Wiel, K.; van Oldenborgh, G. J.; Sebastian, A.; Singh, R.; Arrighi, J.; Otto, F. E. L.; Haustein, K.; Li, S.; Vecchi, G.; Cullen, H. M.

2017-12-01

During August 25-30, 2017, Hurricane Harvey stalled over Texas and caused extreme precipitation over Houston and the surrounding area, particularly on August 26-28. This resulted in extensive flooding with over 80 fatalities and large economic costs. Using observational datasets and high-resolution global climate model experiments we investigate the return period of this event and to what extent anthropogenic climate change influenced the likelihood and intensity of this type of events. The event definition for the attribution is set by the main impact, flooding in the city of Houston. Most rivers crested on August 28 or 29, driven by intensive rainfall on August 26-28. We therefore use the annual maximum of three-day average precipitation as the event definition. Station data (GHCN-D) and a gridded precipitation product (CPC unified analysis) are used to find the return period of the event and changes in the observed record. To attribute changes to anthropogenic climate change we use time-slice experiments from two high-resolution global climate models (EC-Earth 2.3 and GFDL HiFLOR, both integrated at approximately 25 km). A regional model (HadRM3P) was rejected because of unrealistic modelled extremes. Finally we put the attribution results in context, given local vulnerability and exposure.

Magnetic field dissipation in D-sheets

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Burlaga, L. F.; Scudder, J. D.

1973-01-01

The effects of magnetic field annihilation at a tangential or rotational discontinuity in a resistive plasma are examined. The magnetic field intensity profile depends on (1) the field intensities far from the current sheet (+ and - infinity), (2) the angle between the two intensities, and (3) the electrical resistivity. For a tangential discontinuity, the theory predicts a depression in B, centered at the discontinuity, and it predicts a monotonic transition. The theory provides satisfactory fits to the magnetic field intensity and proton temperature profiles observed for two extremely broad D-sheets in the solar wind. Assuming a diffusion time 10 days, one obtains effective resistivities or approximately = 3 x 10 to the 12th power and 2 x 10 to the 13th power emu for the D-sheets. Either resistivity at directional discontinuities is much lower than 10 to the 12th power emu or annihilation does not always occur at discontinuities.

On the log-normality of historical magnetic-storm intensity statistics: implications for extreme-event probabilities

USGS Publications Warehouse

Love, Jeffrey J.; Rigler, E. Joshua; Pulkkinen, Antti; Riley, Pete

2015-01-01

An examination is made of the hypothesis that the statistics of magnetic-storm-maximum intensities are the realization of a log-normal stochastic process. Weighted least-squares and maximum-likelihood methods are used to fit log-normal functions to −Dst storm-time maxima for years 1957-2012; bootstrap analysis is used to established confidence limits on forecasts. Both methods provide fits that are reasonably consistent with the data; both methods also provide fits that are superior to those that can be made with a power-law function. In general, the maximum-likelihood method provides forecasts having tighter confidence intervals than those provided by weighted least-squares. From extrapolation of maximum-likelihood fits: a magnetic storm with intensity exceeding that of the 1859 Carrington event, −Dst≥850 nT, occurs about 1.13 times per century and a wide 95% confidence interval of [0.42,2.41] times per century; a 100-yr magnetic storm is identified as having a −Dst≥880 nT (greater than Carrington) but a wide 95% confidence interval of [490,1187] nT.

A Cluster of Exertional Rhabdomyolysis Cases in a ROTC Program Engaged in an Extreme Exercise Program.

PubMed

Raleigh, Meghan F; Barrett, John P; Jones, Brent D; Beutler, Anthony I; Deuster, Patricia A; O'Connor, Francis G

2018-03-01

Exertional rhabdomyolysis (ER) is on the rise among service members and high school and college athletes. Reported risk factors for ER include fitness level, sudden increase in exercise intensity and duration, and eccentric predominant exercise. This study examined an ER cluster among Reserve Officer Training Corps cadets who participated in a mandatory, timed, extreme conditioning program (ECP) workout. Forty-four cadets participated in this ECP; 11 were subsequently hospitalized with ER. Thirty-five cadets, including all who developed ER, completed a questionnaire to assess ECP times, prior fitness scores, and other ER risk factors. Cadets completed the ECP workout as individuals or in teams. Nine of 29 (31%) individual and two of 15 (13%) team participants were hospitalized with ER. Among the cadets, no associations were noted between hospitalization for ER and finish time, previous fitness scores, or dietary supplement use. The relative risk of developing ER was significantly increased in those who consumed alcohol in the week preceding the ECP (RR = 4.20; 95% CI 1.95, 9.03). In this cohort of Reserve Officer Training Corps cadets, an ECP resulted in a high rate of hospitalization for ER. Contrary to reported ER risk factors, higher baseline fitness was not protective. Rather, cadet knowledge that ECP performance was strongly linked to final cadet ranking greatly influenced intensity of effort.

Precipitation extremes on multiple timescales - Bartlett-Lewis rectangular pulse model and intensity-duration-frequency curves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ritschel, Christoph; Ulbrich, Uwe; Névir, Peter; Rust, Henning W.

2017-12-01

For several hydrological modelling tasks, precipitation time series with a high (i.e. sub-daily) resolution are indispensable. The data are, however, not always available, and thus model simulations are used to compensate. A canonical class of stochastic models for sub-daily precipitation are Poisson cluster processes, with the original Bartlett-Lewis (OBL) model as a prominent representative. The OBL model has been shown to well reproduce certain characteristics found in observations. Our focus is on intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) relationships, which are of particular interest in risk assessment. Based on a high-resolution precipitation time series (5 min) from Berlin-Dahlem, OBL model parameters are estimated and IDF curves are obtained on the one hand directly from the observations and on the other hand from OBL model simulations. Comparing the resulting IDF curves suggests that the OBL model is able to reproduce the main features of IDF statistics across several durations but cannot capture rare events (here an event with a return period larger than 1000 years on the hourly timescale). In this paper, IDF curves are estimated based on a parametric model for the duration dependence of the scale parameter in the generalized extreme value distribution; this allows us to obtain a consistent set of curves over all durations. We use the OBL model to investigate the validity of this approach based on simulated long time series.

Evaluation of satellite-retrieved extreme precipitation using gauge observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lockhoff, M.; Zolina, O.; Simmer, C.; Schulz, J.

2012-04-01

Precipitation extremes have already been intensively studied employing rain gauge datasets. Their main advantage is that they represent a direct measurement with a relatively high temporal coverage. Their main limitation however is their poor spatial coverage and thus a low representativeness in many parts of the world. In contrast, satellites can provide global coverage and there are meanwhile data sets available that are on one hand long enough to be used for extreme value analysis and that have on the other hand the necessary spatial and temporal resolution to capture extremes. However, satellite observations provide only an indirect mean to determine precipitation and there are many potential observational and methodological weaknesses in particular over land surfaces that may constitute doubts concerning their usability for the analysis of precipitation extremes. By comparing basic climatological metrics of precipitation (totals, intensities, number of wet days) as well as respective characteristics of PDFs, absolute and relative extremes of satellite and observational data this paper aims at assessing to which extent satellite products are suitable for analysing extreme precipitation events. In a first step the assessment focuses on Europe taking into consideration various satellite products available, e.g. data sets provided by the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP). First results indicate that satellite-based estimates do not only represent the monthly averaged precipitation very similar to rain gauge estimates but they also capture the day-to-day occurrence fairly well. Larger differences can be found though when looking at the corresponding intensities.

Contrasting the projected change in extreme extratropical cyclones in the two hemispheres

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chang, E. K. M.

2017-12-01

Extratropical cyclones form an important part of the global circulation. They are responsible for much of the high impact weather in the mid-latitudes, including heavy precipitation, strong winds, and coastal storm surges. They are also the surface manifestation of baroclinic waves that are responsible for much of the transport of momentum, heat, and moisture across the mid-latitudes. Thus how these storms will change in the future is of much general interest. In particular, how the frequency of the extreme cyclones change are of most concern, since they are the ones that cause most damages. While the projection of a poleward shift of the Southern Hemisphere storm track and cyclone activity is widely accepted, together with a small decrease in the total number of extratropical cyclones, as discussed in the 5th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR5), projected change in cyclone intensity is still rather uncertain. Several studies have suggested that cyclone intensity, in terms of absolute value of sea level pressure (SLP) minima or SLP perturbations, is projected to increase under global warming. However, other studies found no increase in wind speed around extratropical cyclones. In this study, CMIP5 multi-model projection of how the frequency of extreme cyclones in terms of near surface wind intensity may change under global warming has been examined. Results suggest significant increase in the occurrences of extreme cyclones in the Southern Hemisphere. In the Northern Hemisphere, CMIP5 models project a northeastward shift in extreme cyclone activity over the Pacific, and significant decrease over the Atlantic. Substantial differences are also found between projected changes in near surface wind intensity and wind intensity at 850 hPa, suggesting that wind change at 850 hPa is not a good proxy for change in surface wind intensity. Finally, projected changes in the large scale environment are examined to understand the dynamics behind these contrasting projected changes.

Increasing upper limb training intensity in chronic stroke using embodied virtual reality: a pilot study.

PubMed

Perez-Marcos, Daniel; Chevalley, Odile; Schmidlin, Thomas; Garipelli, Gangadhar; Serino, Andrea; Vuadens, Philippe; Tadi, Tej; Blanke, Olaf; Millán, José D R

2017-11-17

Technology-mediated neurorehabilitation is suggested to enhance training intensity and therefore functional gains. Here, we used a novel virtual reality (VR) system for task-specific upper extremity training after stroke. The system offers interactive exercises integrating motor priming techniques and embodied visuomotor feedback. In this pilot study, we examined (i) rehabilitation dose and training intensity, (ii) functional improvements, and (iii) safety and tolerance when exposed to intensive VR rehabilitation. Ten outpatient stroke survivors with chronic (>6 months) upper extremity paresis participated in a ten-session VR-based upper limb rehabilitation program (2 sessions/week). All participants completed all sessions of the treatment. In total, they received a median of 403 min of upper limb therapy, with 290 min of effective training. Within that time, participants performed a median of 4713 goal-directed movements. Importantly, training intensity increased progressively across sessions from 13.2 to 17.3 movements per minute. Clinical measures show that despite being in the chronic phase, where recovery potential is thought to be limited, participants showed a median improvement rate of 5.3% in motor function (Fugl-Meyer Assessment for Upper Extremity; FMA-UE) post intervention compared to baseline, and of 15.4% at one-month follow-up. For three of them, this improvement was clinically significant. A significant improvement in shoulder active range of motion (AROM) was also observed at follow-up. Participants reported very low levels of pain, stress and fatigue following each session of training, indicating that the intensive VR intervention was well tolerated. No severe adverse events were reported. All participants expressed their interest in continuing the intervention at the hospital or even at home, suggesting high levels of adherence and motivation for the provided intervention. This pilot study showed how a dedicated VR system could deliver high rehabilitation doses and, importantly, intensive training in chronic stroke survivors. FMA-UE and AROM results suggest that task-specific VR training may be beneficial for further functional recovery both in the chronic stage of stroke. Longitudinal studies with higher doses and sample sizes are required to confirm the therapy effectiveness. This trial was retrospectively registered at ClinicalTrials.gov database (registration number NCT03094650 ) on 14 March 2017.

Environmental Factors and Internal Processes Contributing to Interrupted Rapid Decay of Hurricane Joaquin (2015)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hendricks, E. A.; Elsberry, R. L.; Velden, C.; Creasey, R.; Jorgensen, A.; Jordan, M.

2017-12-01

Hurricane Joaquin (2015) was the most intense Atlantic hurricane with a non-tropical origin during the satellite era. In addition to its rapid intensification, Joaquin was noteworthy for the difficulty in forecasting its post-recurvature track to the northeast after having struck the Bahama Islands. Such a track typically leads to a decay as the hurricane moves poleward over colder water, and Joaquin had an extreme decay rate from 135 kt to 65 kt in only 30 h. The focus of this study is on the environmental and internal factors that interrupted this extreme decay at 1800 UTC 4 October, and then how Joaquin re-intensified to 75 kt and maintained that intensity for 30 hours. The real-time Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction System (SHIPS) database is used to calculate each six hours six environmental variables that Hendricks et al. (2010) had found contributed to intensity change. Only the deep-layer vertical wind shear (VWS) from SHIPS, and also from the Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (CIMSS), had a well-defined relationship with both the interrupted rapid decay and the subsequent constant intensity period. A special dataset of Atmospheric Motion Vectors (AMVs) at 15-minute intervals prepared by CIMSS is then utilized to create a continuous VWS record that documents the large ( 15 m s-1) VWS throughout most of the rapid decay period, and then a rapid decrease in VWS to moderate ( 8 m s-1) values at and following the rapid decay period. Horizontal distributions of these CIMSS VWSs demonstrate that during this period Joaquin was located in a large gradient region between large VWSs to the north and near-zero VWSs to the south, which was favorable for sustaining Joaquin at hurricane intensity.

Method for thermal and structural evaluation of shallow intense-beam deposition in matter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pilan Zanoni, André

2018-05-01

The projected range of high-intensity proton and heavy-ion beams at energies below a few tens of MeV/A in matter can be as short as a few micrometers. For the evaluation of temperature and stresses from a shallow beam energy deposition in matter conventional numerical 3D models require minuscule element sizes for acceptable element aspect ratio as well as extremely short time steps for numerical convergence. In order to simulate energy deposition using a manageable number of elements this article presents a method using layered elements. This method is applied to beam stoppers and accidental intense-beam impact onto UHV sector valves. In those cases the thermal results from the new method are congruent to those from conventional solid-element and adiabatic models.

A spectroscopic study using line ratios of lithiumlike ions in a laser-produced plasma

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moreno, J. C.; Goldsmith, S.; Griem, H. R.

1989-02-01

Spectra of highly ionized titanium and calcium in the extreme ultraviolet region were observed in laser-produced plasmas using the OMEGA 24 beam (351 nm) laser system at the University of Rochester. The plasmas were produced using glass microballoon targets coated with a layer of a medium Z element and a layer of parylene (CH). Time-integrated electron temperatures and densities were obtained by comparing measured line intensity ratios of lithiumlike charge states of Ti and Ca to numerical calculations from a collisional-radiative model. The variation of line intensity ratios with electron density and temperature using the collisional-radiative model is discussed.

Large-scale drivers of local precipitation extremes in convection-permitting climate simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chan, Steven C.; Kendon, Elizabeth J.; Roberts, Nigel M.; Fowler, Hayley J.; Blenkinsop, Stephen

2016-04-01

The Met Office 1.5-km UKV convective-permitting models (CPM) is used to downscale present-climate and RCP8.5 60-km HadGEM3 GCM simulations. Extreme UK hourly precipitation intensities increase with local near-surface temperatures and humidity; for temperature, the simulated increase rate for the present-climate simulation is about 6.5% K**-1, which is consistent with observations and theoretical expectations. While extreme intensities are higher in the RCP8.5 simulation as higher temperatures are sampled, there is a decline at the highest temperatures due to circulation and relative humidity changes. Extending the analysis to the broader synoptic scale, it is found that circulation patterns, as diagnosed by MSLP or circulation type, play an increased role in the probability of extreme precipitation in the RCP8.5 simulation. Nevertheless for both CPM simulations, vertical instability is the principal driver for extreme precipitation.

A novel type of very long baseline astronomical intensity interferometer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Borra, Ermanno F.

2013-12-01

This article presents a novel type of very long baseline astronomical interferometer that uses the fluctuations, as a function of time, of the intensity measured by a quadratic detector, which is a common type of astronomical detector. The theory on which the technique is based is validated by laboratory experiments. Its outstanding principal advantages comes from the fact that the angular structure of an astronomical object is simply determined from the visibility of the minima of the spectrum of the intensity fluctuations measured by the detector, as a function of the frequency of the fluctuations, while keeping the spacing between mirrors constant. This would allow a simple setup capable of high angular resolutions because it could use an extremely large baseline. Another major interest is that it allows for a more efficient use of telescope time because observations at a single baseline are sufficient, while amplitude and intensity interferometers need several observations at different baselines. The fact that one does not have to move the telescopes would also allow detecting faster time variations because having to move the telescopes sets a lower limit to the time variations that can be detected. The technique uses wave interaction effects and thus has some characteristics in common with intensity interferometry. A disadvantage of the technique, like in intensity interferometry, is that it needs strong sources if observing at high frequencies (e.g. the visible). This is a minor disadvantage in the radio region. At high frequencies, this disadvantage is mitigated by the fact that, like in intensity interferometry, the requirements of the optical quality of the mirrors used are far less severe than in amplitude interferometry so that poor quality large reflectors (e.g. Cherenkov telescopes) can be used in the optical region.

Increased hospital admissions associated with extreme-heat exposure in King County, Washington, 1990-2010.

PubMed

Isaksen, Tania Busch; Yost, Michael G; Hom, Elizabeth K; Ren, You; Lyons, Hilary; Fenske, Richard A

2015-01-01

Increased morbidity and mortality have been associated with extreme heat events, particularly in temperate climates. Few epidemiologic studies have considered the impact of extreme heat events on hospitalization rates in the Pacific Northwest region. This study quantifies the historic (May to September 1990-2010) heat-morbidity relationship in the most populous Pacific Northwest County, King County, Washington. A relative risk (RR) analysis was used to explore the association between heat and all non-traumatic hospitalizations on 99th percentile heat days, whereas a time series analysis using a piecewise linear model approximation was used to estimate the effect of heat intensity on hospitalizations, adjusted for temporal trends and day of the week. A non-statistically significant 2% [95% CI: 1.02 (0.98, 1.05)] increase in hospitalization risk, on a heat day vs. a non-heat day, was noted for all-ages and all non-traumatic causes. When considering the effect of heat intensity on admissions, we found a statistically significant 1.59% (95% CI: 0.9%, 2.29%) increase in admissions per degree increase in humidex above 37.4°C. Admissions stratified by cause and age produced statistically significant results with both relative risk and time series analyses for nephritis and nephrotic syndromes, acute renal failure, and natural heat exposure hospitalizations. This study demonstrates that heat, expressed as humidex, is associated with increased hospital admissions. When stratified by age and cause of admission, the non-elderly age groups (<85 years) experience significant risk for nephritis and nephrotic syndromes, acute renal failure, natural heat exposure, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and asthma hospitalizations.

Meteorological drought patterns and climate change for the island of Crete

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koutroulis, Aristeidis G.; Vrohidou, Aggeliki K.; Tsanis, Ioannis K.; Jacob, Daniela

2010-05-01

A new index, named SN-SPI (Spatially Normalized-Standardized Precipitation Index), has been developed for assessing meteorological droughts. The SN-SPI is a variant index to SPI (Standardized Precipitation Index) and is based on the probability of precipitation at different time scales, but it is spatially normalized for improved assessment of drought severity. Results of this index incorporate the spatial distribution of precipitation and produces improved drought warnings. This index is applied in the island of Crete (Greece) and the drought results are compared to the ones of SPI. A 30-year long average monthly precipitation dataset from 130 watersheds of the island is used by the above indices for drought classification in terms of its duration and intensity. Bias adjusted monthly precipitation estimates from REMO regional climate model used to quantify the influence of global warming to drought conditions over the period 2010 - 2100. Results based on both indices from 3 basins in west, central and east part of the island show that: a) the extreme drought periods are the same (5%-7% of time) but the intensities based on SN-SPI are lower, b) the area covered by extreme droughts is 25% and 80% based on the SN-SPI and SPI respectively, c) more than half of the area of Crete is experiencing drought conditions during 46% of the 1973-2004 period and 7%, 63% and 92% for 2010-2040, 2040-2070 and 2070-2100 respectively and d) extremely dry conditions will cover 5% of the island for the future 90-year period.

Interplanetary Shocks Inducing Magnetospheric Supersubstorms (SML < ‑2500 nT): Unusual Auroral Morphologies and Energy Flow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hajra, Rajkumar; Tsurutani, Bruce T.

2018-05-01

We present case studies of two interplanetary shock-induced supersubstorms (SSSs) with extremely high intensities (peak SML ‑4418 and ‑2668 nT) and long durations (∼1.7 and ∼3.1 hr). The events occurred on 2005 January 21 and 2010 April 5, respectively. It is shown that these SSSs have a different auroral evolution than a nominal Akasofu-type substorm. The auroras associated with the SSSs did not have the standard midnight onset and following expansion. Instead, at the time of the SML index peak, the midnight sector was generally devoid of intense auroras, while the most intense auroras were located in the premidnight and postmidnight magnetic local times. Precursor energy input through magnetic reconnection was insufficient to balance the large ionospheric energy dissipation during the SSSs. It is argued that besides the release of stored magnetotail energy during the SSSs, these were powered by additional direct driving through both dayside magnetic reconnection and solar wind ram energy.

The unprecedented 2015/16 Tasman Sea marine heatwave

PubMed Central

Oliver, Eric C. J.; Benthuysen, Jessica A.; Bindoff, Nathaniel L.; Hobday, Alistair J.; Holbrook, Neil J.; Mundy, Craig N.; Perkins-Kirkpatrick, Sarah E.

2017-01-01

The Tasman Sea off southeast Australia exhibited its longest and most intense marine heatwave ever recorded in 2015/16. Here we report on several inter-related aspects of this event: observed characteristics, physical drivers, ecological impacts and the role of climate change. This marine heatwave lasted for 251 days reaching a maximum intensity of 2.9 °C above climatology. The anomalous warming is dominated by anomalous convergence of heat linked to the southward flowing East Australian Current. Ecosystem impacts range from new disease outbreaks in farmed shellfish, mortality of wild molluscs and out-of-range species observations. Global climate models indicate it is very likely to be that the occurrence of an extreme warming event of this duration or intensity in this region is respectively ≥330 times and ≥6.8 times as likely to be due to the influence of anthropogenic climate change. Climate projections indicate that event likelihoods will increase in the future, due to increasing anthropogenic influences. PMID:28706247

The unprecedented 2015/16 Tasman Sea marine heatwave

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oliver, Eric C. J.; Benthuysen, Jessica A.; Bindoff, Nathaniel L.; Hobday, Alistair J.; Holbrook, Neil J.; Mundy, Craig N.; Perkins-Kirkpatrick, Sarah E.

2017-07-01

The Tasman Sea off southeast Australia exhibited its longest and most intense marine heatwave ever recorded in 2015/16. Here we report on several inter-related aspects of this event: observed characteristics, physical drivers, ecological impacts and the role of climate change. This marine heatwave lasted for 251 days reaching a maximum intensity of 2.9 °C above climatology. The anomalous warming is dominated by anomalous convergence of heat linked to the southward flowing East Australian Current. Ecosystem impacts range from new disease outbreaks in farmed shellfish, mortality of wild molluscs and out-of-range species observations. Global climate models indicate it is very likely to be that the occurrence of an extreme warming event of this duration or intensity in this region is respectively >=330 times and >=6.8 times as likely to be due to the influence of anthropogenic climate change. Climate projections indicate that event likelihoods will increase in the future, due to increasing anthropogenic influences.

Five centuries of Central European temperature extremes reconstructed from tree-ring density and documentary evidence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Battipaglia, Giovanna; Frank, David; Büntgen, Ulf; Dobrovolný, Petr; Brázdil, Rudolf; Pfister, Christian; Esper, Jan

2010-06-01

Future climate change will likely influence the frequency and intensity of weather extremes. As such events are by definition rare, long records are required to understand their characteristics, drivers, and consequences on ecology and society. Herein we provide a unique perspective on regional-scale temperature extremes over the past millennium, using three tree-ring maximum latewood density (MXD) chronologies from higher elevations in the European Alps. We verify the tree-ring-based extremes using documentary evidences from Switzerland, the Czech Republic, and Central Europe that allowed the identification of 44 summer extremes over the 1550-2003 period. These events include cold temperatures in 1579, 1628, 1675, and 1816, as well as warm ones in 1811 and 2003. Prior to 1550, we provide new evidence for cold (e.g., 1068 and 1258) and warm (e.g., 1333) summers derived from the combined MXD records and thus help to characterize high-frequency temperature variability during medieval times. Spatial coherence of the reconstructed extremes is found over Switzerland, with most signatures even extending across Central Europe. We discuss potential limitations of the tree-ring and documentary archives, including the ( i) ability of MXD to particularly capture extremely warm temperatures, ( ii) methodological identification and relative definition of extremes, and ( iii) placement of those events in the millennium-long context of low-frequency climate change.

Global resistance and resilience of primary production following extreme drought are predicted by mean annual precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stuart-Haëntjens, E. J.; De Boeck, H. J.; Lemoine, N. P.; Gough, C. M.; Kröel-Dulay, G.; Mänd, P.; Jentsch, A.; Schmidt, I. K.; Bahn, M.; Lloret, F.; Kreyling, J.; Wohlgemuth, T.; Stampfli, A.; Anderegg, W.; Classen, A. T.; Smith, M. D.

2017-12-01

Extreme drought is increasing globally in frequency and intensity, with uncertain consequences for the resistance and resilience of key ecosystem functions, including primary production. Primary production resistance, the capacity of an ecosystem to withstand change in primary production following extreme climate, and resilience, the degree to which primary production recovers, vary among and within ecosystem types, obscuring global patterns of resistance and resilience to extreme drought. Past syntheses on resistance have focused climatic gradients or individual ecosystem types, without assessing interactions between the two. Theory and many empirical studies suggest that forest production is more resistant but less resilient than grassland production to extreme drought, though some empirical studies reveal that these trends are not universal. Here, we conducted a global meta-analysis of sixty-four grassland and forest sites, finding that primary production resistance to extreme drought is predicted by a common continuum of mean annual precipitation (MAP). However, grasslands and forests exhibit divergent production resilience relationships with MAP. We discuss the likely mechanisms underlying the mixed production resistance and resilience patterns of forests and grasslands, including different plant species turnover times and drought adaptive strategies. These findings demonstrate the primary production responses of forests and grasslands to extreme drought are mixed, with far-reaching implications for Earth System Models, ecosystem management, and future studies of extreme drought resistance and resilience.

Changes in extremes due to half a degree warming in observations and models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fischer, E. M.; Schleussner, C. F.; Pfleiderer, P.

2017-12-01

Assessing the climate impacts of half-a-degree warming increments is high on the post-Paris science agenda. Discriminating those effects is particularly challenging for climate extremes such as heavy precipitation and heat extremes for which model uncertainties are generally large, and for which internal variability is so important that it can easily offset or strongly amplify the forced local changes induced by half a degree warming. Despite these challenges we provide evidence for large-scale changes in the intensity and frequency of climate extremes due to half a degree warming. We first assess the difference in extreme climate indicators in observational data for the 1960s and 1970s versus the recent past, two periods differ by half a degree. We identify distinct differences for the global and continental-scale occurrence of heat and heavy precipitation extremes. We show that those observed changes in heavy precipitation and heat extremes broadly agree with simulated historical differences and are informative for the projected differences between 1.5 and 2°C warming despite different radiative forcings. We therefore argue that evidence from the observational record can inform the debate about discernible climate impacts in the light of model uncertainty by providing a conservative estimate of the implications of 0.5°C warming. A limitation of using the observational record arises from potential non-linearities in the response of climate extremes to a certain level of warming. We test for potential non-linearities in the response of heat and heavy precipitation extremes in a large ensemble of transient climate simulations. We further quantify differences between a time-window approach in a coupled model large ensemble vs. time-slice experiments using prescribed SST experiments performed in the context of the HAPPI-MIP project. Thereby we provide different lines of evidence that half a degree warming leads to substantial changes in the expected occurrence of heat and heavy precipitation extremes.

Does nonstationarity in rainfall require nonstationary intensity-duration-frequency curves?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ganguli, Poulomi; Coulibaly, Paulin

2017-12-01

In Canada, risk of flooding due to heavy rainfall has risen in recent decades; the most notable recent examples include the July 2013 storm in the Greater Toronto region and the May 2017 flood of the Toronto Islands. We investigate nonstationarity and trends in the short-duration precipitation extremes in selected urbanized locations in Southern Ontario, Canada, and evaluate the potential of nonstationary intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves, which form an input to civil infrastructural design. Despite apparent signals of nonstationarity in precipitation extremes in all locations, the stationary vs. nonstationary models do not exhibit any significant differences in the design storm intensity, especially for short recurrence intervals (up to 10 years). The signatures of nonstationarity in rainfall extremes do not necessarily imply the use of nonstationary IDFs for design considerations. When comparing the proposed IDFs with current design standards, for return periods (10 years or less) typical for urban drainage design, current design standards require an update of up to 7 %, whereas for longer recurrence intervals (50-100 years), ideal for critical civil infrastructural design, updates ranging between ˜ 2 and 44 % are suggested. We further emphasize that the above findings need re-evaluation in the light of climate change projections since the intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation are expected to intensify due to global warming.

How much might additional half a degree from a global warming of 1.5°C affects the extreme precipitation change in China?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, W.; Jiang, Z.

2017-12-01

In order to strengthen the global respond to the dangerous of global warming, Paris Agreement sets out two long-term warming goals: limiting global warming to well below 2˚C and purse effort to below 1.5˚C above pre-industrial levels. However, future climate change risks in those two warming targets show significant regional differences. This article aims to study the intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation change over China under those two global warming targets by using CMIP5 models under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenario. Focus is put on the effects of the additional half degree in changing the extreme precipitation. Results show that the changes of extreme precipitation are independent of the RCP scenarios when global warming reaches the same threshold. Intensity of extreme precipitation averaged over China increase by around 6% and 11% when global warming reaches 1.5˚C and 2˚C, respectively. The additional half a degree increase makes the intensity of extreme precipitation averaged over China to increase by 4.5%, which translates to an increase close to the Clausius-Clapeyron scaling. Return period decreases by 5 years for the extra half degree warming when the 20-year return values are considered at the reference level.

Intensity information extraction in Geiger mode detector array based three-dimensional imaging applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Fei

2013-09-01

Geiger-mode detectors have single photon sensitivity and picoseconds timing resolution, which make it a good candidate for low light level ranging applications, especially in the case of flash three dimensional imaging applications where the received laser power is extremely limited. Another advantage of Geiger-mode APD is their capability of large output current which can drive CMOS timing circuit directly, which means that larger format focal plane arrays can be easily fabricated using the mature CMOS technology. However Geiger-mode detector based FPAs can only measure the range information of a scene but not the reflectivity. Reflectivity is a major characteristic which can help target classification and identification. According to Poisson statistic nature, detection probability is tightly connected to the incident number of photon. Employing this relation, a signal intensity estimation method based on probability inversion is proposed. Instead of measuring intensity directly, several detections are conducted, then the detection probability is obtained and the intensity is estimated using this method. The relation between the estimator's accuracy, measuring range and number of detections are discussed based on statistical theory. Finally Monte-Carlo simulation is conducted to verify the correctness of this theory. Using 100 times of detection, signal intensity equal to 4.6 photons per detection can be measured using this method. With slight modification of measuring strategy, intensity information can be obtained using current Geiger-mode detector based FPAs, which can enrich the information acquired and broaden the application field of current technology.

Extreme alien light allows survival of terrestrial bacteria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johnson, Neil; Zhao, Guannan; Caycedo, Felipe; Manrique, Pedro; Qi, Hong; Rodriguez, Ferney; Quiroga, Luis

2013-07-01

Photosynthetic organisms provide a crucial coupling between the Sun's energy and metabolic processes supporting life on Earth. Searches for extraterrestrial life focus on seeking planets with similar incident light intensities and environments. However the impact of abnormal photon arrival times has not been considered. Here we present the counterintuitive result that broad classes of extreme alien light could support terrestrial bacterial life whereas sources more similar to our Sun might not. Our detailed microscopic model uses state-of-the-art empirical inputs including Atomic Force Microscopy (AFM) images. It predicts a highly nonlinear survivability for the basic lifeform Rsp. Photometricum whereby toxic photon feeds get converted into a benign metabolic energy supply by an interplay between the membrane's spatial structure and temporal excitation processes. More generally, our work suggests a new handle for manipulating terrestrial photosynthesis using currently-available extreme value statistics photon sources.

Did we see the 2011 summer heat wave coming?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luo, Lifeng; Zhang, Yan

2012-05-01

A series of climate extreme events affected many parts of the US during 2011, including the severe drought in Texas, the spring tornado outbreak in the southern states, and the weeklong summer heat wave in the Central Plains. Successful prediction of these events can better inform and prepare the general public to cope with these extremes. In this study, we investigate the operational capability of the new NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFSv2) in predicting the 2011 summer heat wave. We found that starting from April 2011, the operational CFSv2 forecast consistently suggested an elevated probability of extremely hot days during the forthcoming summer over the Central Plains, and as the summer was approaching the forecast became more certain about the summer heat wave in its geographic location, intensity and timing. This study demonstrates the capability of the new seasonal forecast system and its potential usefulness in decision making process.

Using EPA Tools and Data Services to Inform Changes to Design Storm Definitions for Wastewater Utilities based on Climate Model Projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tryby, M.; Fries, J. S.; Baranowski, C.

2014-12-01

Extreme precipitation events can cause significant impacts to drinking water and wastewater utilities, including facility damage, water quality impacts, service interruptions and potential risks to human health and the environment due to localized flooding and combined sewer overflows (CSOs). These impacts will become more pronounced with the projected increases in frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events due to climate change. To model the impacts of extreme precipitation events, wastewater utilities often develop Intensity, Duration, and Frequency (IDF) rainfall curves and "design storms" for use in the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) Storm Water Management Model (SWMM). Wastewater utilities use SWMM for planning, analysis, and facility design related to stormwater runoff, combined and sanitary sewers, and other drainage systems in urban and non-urban areas. SWMM tracks (1) the quantity and quality of runoff made within each sub-catchment; and (2) the flow rate, flow depth, and quality of water in each pipe and channel during a simulation period made up of multiple time steps. In its current format, EPA SWMM does not consider climate change projection data. Climate change may affect the relationship between intensity, duration, and frequency described by past rainfall events. Therefore, EPA is integrating climate projection data available in the Climate Resilience Evaluation and Awareness Tool (CREAT) into SWMM. CREAT is a climate risk assessment tool for utilities that provides downscaled climate change projection data for changes in the amount of rainfall in a 24-hour period for various extreme precipitation events (e.g., from 5-year to 100-year storm events). Incorporating climate change projections into SWMM will provide wastewater utilities with more comprehensive data they can use in planning for future storm events, thereby reducing the impacts to the utility and customers served from flooding and stormwater issues.

Extreme Precipitation in Poland in the Years 1951-2010

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malinowska, Miroslawa

2017-12-01

The characteristics of extreme precipitation, including the dominant trends, were analysed for eight stations located in different parts of Poland for the period 1951-2010. Five indices enabling the assessment of the intensity and frequency of both extremely dry and wet conditions were applied. The indices included the number of days with precipitation ≥10mm·d-1 (R10), maximum number of consecutive dry days (CDD), maximum 5-day precipitation total (R5d), simple daily intensity index (SDII), and the fraction of annual total precipitation due to events exceeding the 95th percentile calculated for the period 1961-1990. Annual trends were calculated using standard linear regression method, while the fit of the model was assessed with the F-test at the 95% confidence level. The analysed changes in extreme precipitation showed mixed patterns. A significant positive trend in the number of days with precipitation ≥10mm·d-1 (R10) was observed in central Poland, while a significant negative one, in south-eastern Poland. Based on the analysis of maximum 5-day precipitation totals (R5d), statistically significant positive trends in north-western, western and eastern parts of the country were detected, while the negative trends were found in the central and northeastern parts. Daily precipitation, expressed as single daily intensity index (SDII), increased over time in northern and central Poland. In southern Poland, the variation of SDII index showed non-significant negative tendencies. Finally, the fraction of annual total precipitation due to the events exceeding the 1961-1990 95th percentile increased at one station only, namely, in Warsaw. The indicator which refers to dry conditions, i.e. maximum number of consecutive dry days (CDD) displayed negative trends throughout the surveyed area, with the exception of Szczecin that is a representative of north-western Poland.

Isosurface Extraction in Time-Varying Fields Using a Temporal Hierarchical Index Tree

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shen, Han-Wei; Gerald-Yamasaki, Michael (Technical Monitor)

1998-01-01

Many high-performance isosurface extraction algorithms have been proposed in the past several years as a result of intensive research efforts. When applying these algorithms to large-scale time-varying fields, the storage overhead incurred from storing the search index often becomes overwhelming. this paper proposes an algorithm for locating isosurface cells in time-varying fields. We devise a new data structure, called Temporal Hierarchical Index Tree, which utilizes the temporal coherence that exists in a time-varying field and adoptively coalesces the cells' extreme values over time; the resulting extreme values are then used to create the isosurface cell search index. For a typical time-varying scalar data set, not only does this temporal hierarchical index tree require much less storage space, but also the amount of I/O required to access the indices from the disk at different time steps is substantially reduced. We illustrate the utility and speed of our algorithm with data from several large-scale time-varying CID simulations. Our algorithm can achieve more than 80% of disk-space savings when compared with the existing techniques, while the isosurface extraction time is nearly optimal.

Analyzing phenological extreme events over the past five decades in Germany

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schleip, Christoph; Menzel, Annette; Estrella, Nicole; Graeser, Philipp

2010-05-01

As climate change may alter the frequency and intensity of extreme temperatures, we analysed whether warming of the last 5 decades has already changed the statistics of phenological extreme events. In this context, two extreme value statistical concepts are discussed and applied to existing phenological datasets of German Weather Service (DWD) in order to derive probabilities of occurrence for extreme early or late phenological events. We analyse four phenological groups; "begin of flowering, "leaf foliation", "fruit ripening" and "leaf colouring" as well as DWD indicator phases of the "phenological year". Additionally we put an emphasis on a between-species analysis; a comparison of differences in extreme onsets between three common northern conifers. Furthermore we conducted a within-species analysis with different phases of horse chestnut throughout a year. The first statistical approach fits data to a Gaussian model using traditional statistical techniques, and then analyses the extreme quantile. The key point of this approach is the adoption of an appropriate probability density function (PDF) to the observed data and the assessment of the PDF parameters change in time. The full analytical description in terms of the estimated PDF for defined time steps of the observation period allows probability assessments of extreme values for e.g. annual or decadal time steps. Related with this approach is the possibility of counting out the onsets which fall in our defined extreme percentiles. The estimation of the probability of extreme events on the basis of the whole data set is in contrast to analyses with the generalized extreme value distribution (GEV). The second approach deals with the extreme PDFs itself and fits the GEV distribution to annual minima of phenological series to provide useful estimates about return levels. For flowering and leaf unfolding phases exceptionally early extremes are seen since the mid 1980s and especially for the single years 1961, 1990 and 2007 whereas exceptionally extreme late events are seen in the year 1970. Summer phases such as fruit ripening exhibit stronger shifts to early extremes than spring phases. Leaf colouring phases reveal increasing probability for late extremes. The with GEV estimated 100-year event of Picea, Pinus and Larix amount to extreme early events of about -27, -31.48 and -32.79 days, respectively. If we assume non-stationary minimum data we get a more extreme 100-year event of about -35.40 for Picea but associated with wider confidence intervals. The GEV is simply another probability distribution but for purposes of extreme analysis in phenology it should be considered as equally important as (if not more important than) the Gaussian PDF approach.

Endogenous population growth may imply chaos.

PubMed

Prskawetz, A; Feichtinger, G

1995-01-01

The authors consider a discrete-time neoclassical growth model with an endogenous rate of population growth. The resulting one-dimensional map for the capital intensity has a tilted z-shape. Using the theory of nonlinear dynamical systems, they obtain numerical results on the qualitative behavior of time paths for changing parameter values. Besides stable and periodic solutions, erratic time paths may result. In particular, myopic and far-sighted economies--assumed to be characterized by low and high savings rate respectively--are characterized by stable per capita capital stocks, while solutions with chaotic windows exist between these two extremes.

Climate Change and Fetal Health: The Impacts of Exposure to Extreme Temperatures in New York City

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ngo, Nicole S.; Horton, Radley M.

2015-01-01

Background: Climate change is projected to increase the frequency, intensity, and duration of heat waves while reducing cold extremes, yet few studies have examined the relationship between temperature and fetal health. Objectives: We estimate the impacts of extreme temperatures on birth weight and gestational age in Manhattan, a borough in New York City, and explore differences by socioeconomic status (SES). Methods: We combine average daily temperature from 1985 to 2010 with birth certificate data in Manhattan for the same time period. We then generate 33 downscaled climate model time series to project impacts on fetal health. Results: We find exposure to an extra day where average temperature 25 F and 85 F during pregnancy is associated with a 1.8 and 1.7 g (respectively) reduction in birth weight, but the impact varies by SES, particularly for extreme heat, where teen mothers seem most vulnerable. We find no meaningful, significant effect on gestational age. Using projections of temperature from these climate models, we project average net reductions in birth weight in the 2070- 2099 period of 4.6 g in the business-as-usual scenario. Conclusions: Results suggest that increasing heat events from climate change could adversely impact birth weight and vary by SES.

Metastability for discontinuous dynamical systems under Lévy noise: Case study on Amazonian Vegetation.

PubMed

Serdukova, Larissa; Zheng, Yayun; Duan, Jinqiao; Kurths, Jürgen

2017-08-24

For the tipping elements in the Earth's climate system, the most important issue to address is how stable is the desirable state against random perturbations. Extreme biotic and climatic events pose severe hazards to tropical rainforests. Their local effects are extremely stochastic and difficult to measure. Moreover, the direction and intensity of the response of forest trees to such perturbations are unknown, especially given the lack of efficient dynamical vegetation models to evaluate forest tree cover changes over time. In this study, we consider randomness in the mathematical modelling of forest trees by incorporating uncertainty through a stochastic differential equation. According to field-based evidence, the interactions between fires and droughts are a more direct mechanism that may describe sudden forest degradation in the south-eastern Amazon. In modeling the Amazonian vegetation system, we include symmetric α-stable Lévy perturbations. We report results of stability analysis of the metastable fertile forest state. We conclude that even a very slight threat to the forest state stability represents L´evy noise with large jumps of low intensity, that can be interpreted as a fire occurring in a non-drought year. During years of severe drought, high-intensity fires significantly accelerate the transition between a forest and savanna state.

Innovative strength training-induced neuroplasticity and increased muscle size and strength in children with spastic cerebral palsy: an experimenter-blind case study--three-month follow-up.

PubMed

Lee, Dong Ryul; Kim, Yun Hee; Kim, Dong A; Lee, Jung Ah; Hwang, Pil Woo; Lee, Min Jin; You, Sung Hyun

2014-01-01

In children with cerebral palsy (CP), the never-learned-to-use (NLTU) effect and underutilization suppress the normal development of cortical plasticity in the paretic limb, which further inhibits its functional use and increases associated muscle weakness. To highlight the effects of a novel comprehensive hand repetitive intensive strengthening training system on neuroplastic changes associated with upper extremity (UE) muscle strength and motor performance in children with spastic hemiplegic CP. Two children with spastic hemiplegic CP were recruited. Intervention with the comprehensive hand repetitive intensive strengthening training system was provided for 60 min a day, three times a week, for 10 weeks. Neuroplastic changes, muscle size, strength, and associated motor function were measured using functional magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), ultrasound imaging, and standardized motor tests, respectively. The functional MRI data showed that the comprehensive hand repetitive intensive strengthening training intervention produced measurable neuroplastic changes in the neural substrates associated with motor control and learning. These neuroplastic changes were associated with increased muscle size, strength and motor function. These results provide compelling evidence of neuroplastic changes and associated improvements in muscle size and motor function following innovative upper extremity strengthening exercise.

Cardiac tamponade due to umbilical venous catheter in the new born

PubMed Central

Abdellatif, Mohamed; Ahmed, Ashfag; Alsenaidi, Khalfan

2012-01-01

With more and more extreme premature and very low-birth weight babies being resuscitated, umbilical central venous catheterisation is now being used more frequently in neonatal intensive care. The authors present a case of cardiac tamponade following umbilical venous catheterisation in a neonate, an uncommon, yet potentially fatal complication. The patient was diagnosed at the appropriate time by echocardiography and urgent pericardiocentesis proved lifesaving. PMID:22802560

The transformed-stationary approach: a generic and simplified methodology for non-stationary extreme value analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mentaschi, Lorenzo; Vousdoukas, Michalis; Voukouvalas, Evangelos; Sartini, Ludovica; Feyen, Luc; Besio, Giovanni; Alfieri, Lorenzo

2016-09-01

Statistical approaches to study extreme events require, by definition, long time series of data. In many scientific disciplines, these series are often subject to variations at different temporal scales that affect the frequency and intensity of their extremes. Therefore, the assumption of stationarity is violated and alternative methods to conventional stationary extreme value analysis (EVA) must be adopted. Using the example of environmental variables subject to climate change, in this study we introduce the transformed-stationary (TS) methodology for non-stationary EVA. This approach consists of (i) transforming a non-stationary time series into a stationary one, to which the stationary EVA theory can be applied, and (ii) reverse transforming the result into a non-stationary extreme value distribution. As a transformation, we propose and discuss a simple time-varying normalization of the signal and show that it enables a comprehensive formulation of non-stationary generalized extreme value (GEV) and generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) models with a constant shape parameter. A validation of the methodology is carried out on time series of significant wave height, residual water level, and river discharge, which show varying degrees of long-term and seasonal variability. The results from the proposed approach are comparable with the results from (a) a stationary EVA on quasi-stationary slices of non-stationary series and (b) the established method for non-stationary EVA. However, the proposed technique comes with advantages in both cases. For example, in contrast to (a), the proposed technique uses the whole time horizon of the series for the estimation of the extremes, allowing for a more accurate estimation of large return levels. Furthermore, with respect to (b), it decouples the detection of non-stationary patterns from the fitting of the extreme value distribution. As a result, the steps of the analysis are simplified and intermediate diagnostics are possible. In particular, the transformation can be carried out by means of simple statistical techniques such as low-pass filters based on the running mean and the standard deviation, and the fitting procedure is a stationary one with a few degrees of freedom and is easy to implement and control. An open-source MATLAB toolbox has been developed to cover this methodology, which is available at https://github.com/menta78/tsEva/ (Mentaschi et al., 2016).

Analysis and trends of precipitation lapse rate and extreme indices over north Sikkim eastern Himalayas under CMIP5ESM-2M RCPs experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, Vishal; Goyal, Manish Kumar

2016-01-01

This paper draws attention to highlight the spatial and temporal variability in precipitation lapse rate (PLR) and precipitation extreme indices (PEIs) through the mesoscale characterization of Teesta river catchment, which corresponds to north Sikkim eastern Himalayas. A PLR rate is an important variable for the snowmelt runoff models. In a mountainous region, the PLR could be varied from lower elevation parts to high elevation parts. In this study, a PLR was computed by accounting elevation differences, which varies from around 1500 m to 7000 m. A precipitation variability and extremity were analysed using multiple mathematical functions viz. quantile regression, spatial mean, spatial standard deviation, Mann-Kendall test and Sen's estimation. For this reason, a daily precipitation, in the historical (years 1980-2005) as measured/observed gridded points and projected experiments for the 21st century (years 2006-2100) simulated by CMIP5 ESM-2 M model (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 Earth System Model 2) employing three different radiative forcing scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways), utilized for the research work. The outcomes of this study suggest that a PLR is significantly varied from lower elevation to high elevation parts. The PEI based analysis showed that the extreme high intensity events have been increased significantly, especially after 2040s. The PEI based observations also showed that the numbers of wet days are increased for all the RCPs. The quantile regression plots showed significant increments in the upper and lower quantiles of the various extreme indices. The Mann-Kendall test and Sen's estimation tests clearly indicated significant changing patterns in the frequency and intensity of the precipitation indices across all the sub-basins and RCP scenario in an intra-decadal time series domain. The RCP8.5 showed extremity of the projected outcomes.

Complex regional pain syndrome type I in the upper extremity - how efficient physical therapy and rehabilitation are.

PubMed

Zečević Luković, Tanja; Ristić, Branko; Jovanović, Zorica; Rančić, Nemanja; Ignjatović Ristić, Dragana; Cuković, Saša

2012-08-01

To evaluate the effects of early started combined therapy in Complex Regional Pain Syndrome-1 (CRPS-1) on the upper extremities. The study included 36 patients in the first stadium of CRPS-1 on the upper extremities The mean age of patients was 42.6±14.6, the majority of them (26 of 36) were females. The right side of the upper extremity was affected much more then the left side. They were treated by combined therapy including analgetics, electrotherapy, magneto therapy and kinesitherapy. The average length of observation was 172.1 days (from 90 to 250 days). The average length of treatment was 91.5±42.16 days. Intensity of pain, swelling of the extremity, the change in skin coloration and cutaneous manifestations were assessed three times, at the beginning of the treatment, after 6 weeks and at the end of the treatment. The pain was registered in all patients at visit 1 (average pain intensity was 5.70 ±1.44 on 100 mm visual analogue scale), and it was progressively decreased during the treatment from 3.60±1.22 at the second visit to 0.34±0.68 at the third visit. Vasodilatation was registered in 30 (83.33%) patients and skin temperature asymmetries was found in 21 (58.33%) patients. The difference of size was detected in 30 (83.33%) patients at the first visit compared to four (11.11%) patients at the end of the treatment. There were six (16.66%) patients without swelling at the beginning compared to 26 (72.22%) at the end of the treatment (p less than 0.000). Complete healing was achieved in 32 patients (88.88%). The carefully chosen physical agents in combination with analgesic and non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs may benefit in patients with CRPS-1 on the upper extremity if the treatment starts as soon as possible.

Cascading effects of climate extremes on vertebrate fauna through changes to low-latitude tree flowering and fruiting phenology.

PubMed

Butt, Nathalie; Seabrook, Leonie; Maron, Martine; Law, Bradley S; Dawson, Terence P; Syktus, Jozef; McAlpine, Clive A

2015-09-01

Forest vertebrate fauna provide critical services, such as pollination and seed dispersal, which underpin functional and resilient ecosystems. In turn, many of these fauna are dependent on the flowering phenology of the plant species of such ecosystems. The impact of changes in climate, including climate extremes, on the interaction between these fauna and flora has not been identified or elucidated, yet influences on flowering phenology are already evident. These changes are well documented in the mid to high latitudes. However, there is emerging evidence that the flowering phenology, nectar/pollen production, and fruit production of long-lived trees in tropical and subtropical forests are also being impacted by changes in the frequency and severity of climate extremes. Here, we examine the implications of these changes for vertebrate fauna dependent on these resources. We review the literature to establish evidence for links between climate extremes and flowering phenology, elucidating the nature of relationships between different vertebrate taxa and flowering regimes. We combine this information with climate change projections to postulate about the likely impacts on nectar, pollen and fruit resource availability and the consequences for dependent vertebrate fauna. The most recent climate projections show that the frequency and intensity of climate extremes will increase during the 21st century. These changes are likely to significantly alter mass flowering and fruiting events in the tropics and subtropics, which are frequently cued by climate extremes, such as intensive rainfall events or rapid temperature shifts. We find that in these systems the abundance and duration of resource availability for vertebrate fauna is likely to fluctuate, and the time intervals between episodes of high resource availability to increase. The combined impact of these changes has the potential to result in cascading effects on ecosystems through changes in pollinator and seed dispersal ecology, and demands a focused research effort. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

An approach toward incorporation of global warming effects into Intensity-Duration-Frequency values

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kunkel, K.; Easterling, D. R.

2017-12-01

Rising global temperatures from increasing greenhouse gas concentrations will increase overall atmospheric water vapor concentrations. There is a high level of scientific confidence that this will increase the future intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation events, even in regions where overall precipitation may decrease. For control of runoff from extreme rainfall, infrastructure engineering utilizes design values of rainfall known as Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) values. Use of the existing IDF values, which are based solely on historical climate records, is likely to lead to under-design of runoff control structures, and associated increased flood damages. However, future changes in IDF values are uncertain and probably regionally variable. Our paradigm is that changes in IDF values will result from changes in atmospheric capacity (water vapor concentrations) and opportunity (the number and intensity of heavy precipitation-producing storm systems). Relevant storm systems being investigated include extratropical cyclones and their associated fronts, tropical cyclones, and the North American Monsoon system. The overall approach involves developing IDF adjustment factors for changes in these components of the climate system. The adjustment factors have associated uncertainties, primarily from (1) uncertainties in the future pathway of greenhouse gas emissions and (2) variations among climate models in the sensitivity of the climate system to greenhouse gas concentration changes. In addition to meteorological considerations, the lifetime of projects designed using IDF values is an essential consideration because the IDF values may change substantially during that time. The initial results of this project will be discussed.

Characteristics and present trends of wave extremes in the Mediterranean Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pino, Cosimo; Lionello, Piero; Galati, Maria Barbara

2010-05-01

Wind generated surface waves are an important factor characterizing marine storminess and the marine environment. This contribution considers characteristics and trends of SWH (Significant Wave Height) extremes (both high and low extremes, such as dead calm duration are analyzed). The data analysis is based on a 44-year long simulation (1958-2001) of the wave field in the Mediterranean Sea. The quality of the model simulation is controlled using satellite data. The results show the different characteristics of the different parts of the basin with the variability being higher in the western (where the highest values are produced) than in the eastern areas of the basin (where absence of wave is a rare condition). In fact, both duration of storms and of dead calm episodes is larger in the east than in the west part of the Mediterranean. The African coast and the southern Ionian Sea are the areas were exceptional values of SWH are expected to occur in correspondence with exceptional meteorological events. Significant trends of storm characteristics are present only in sparse areas and suggest a decrease of both storm intensity and duration (a marginal increase of storm intensity is present in the center of the Mediterranean). The statistics of extremes and high SWH values is substantially steady during the second half of the 20th century. The influence of the large-scale teleconnection patterns (TlcP) that are known to be relevant for the Mediterranean climate on the intensity and spatial distribution of extreme SWH (Significant Wave Height) has been investigated. The analysis was focused on the monthly scale analysing the variability of links along the annual cycle. The considered TlcP are the North Atlantic Oscillation, the East-Atlantic / West-Russian pattern and the Scandinavian pattern and their effect on the intensity and the frequency of high/low SWH conditions. The results show it is difficult to establish a dominant TlcP for SWH extremes, because all 4 patterns considered are important for at least few months in the year and none of them is important for the whole year. High extremes in winter and fall are more influenced by the TlcPs than in other seasons and low extremes.

Recent climatic changes in the Northern Extratropics with foci on extreme events and transitions through environmentally and socio-economically significant thresholds (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Groisman, P. Y.; Knight, R. W.; Karl, T. R.

2009-12-01

Contemporary climate models send several very different messages regarding changes in the energy and water cycle over northern extratropical land areas that are leading to climate extremes of different kinds. For the regions of the Northern Extratropics with a dense network of long-term time series of daily observations, we quantified several lines of evidence of contemporary changes that have lead to changes in the frequency (and intensity) of extreme events. Among these extreme events are very heavy rainfall events, prolonged no-rain intervals, indices that characterize severity of the “fire” weather, and timing and magnitude of peak streamflow. We paid a special attention to recent climatic changes in the Northern Extratropics characteristics of the seasonal cycle such as temperature transitions through environmentally and socio-economically significant thresholds (e.g., no-frost period, duration and “strength” of growing season and cold seasons, frequency and intensity of hot and cold spells) and energy accumulated indices that are proportional to the societal need to cope with seasonal weather (e.g., heating-degree and cooling degree days). These thresholds do not necessarily characterize extreme events, but rather changes in their dates, duration, totals, or distribution within the year which may affect society. In particular, our analyses for North America show increasing rates of changes in most of characteristics of the temperature seasonal cycle during the past few decades. Some of these changes can be considered as positive while others cause concern. In particular, in the area of the North American Monsoon (southwestern US) we observe strong warming that together with the precipitation deficit increases chances of detrimental weather conditions such as extremely hot nights that affect human health, prolonged no-rain periods, and higher values of the fire weather indices. Generally, the impact of hot nights on human health (a relative frequency of heart attacks) is well established. Now, with minimum temperature continuing to rise, this impact has become more severe everywhere in the eastern and southern United States and even in Russia. During the past four decades, there was an approximately 60% nationwide increase in the number of “hot nights” over the conterminous U.S. and in the densely populated northwestern U.S. the number of such nights (usually very low before the 1960s) more than doubled.

Efficient extreme-UV-to-extreme-UV conversion by four-wave mixing with intense near-IR pulses in highly charged ion plasmas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chu, Hsu-hsin; Wang, Jyhpyng

2018-05-01

Nonlinear optics in the extreme-ultraviolet (EUV) has been limited by lack of transparent media and small conversion efficiency. To overcome this problem we explore the advantage of using multiply charged ion plasmas as the interacting media between EUV and intense near-infrared (NIR) pulses. Such media are transparent to EUV and can withstand intense NIR driving pulses without damage. We calculate the third-order nonlinear polarizabilities of Ar2 + and Ar3 + ions for EUV and NIR four-wave mixing by using the well-proven Cowan code and find that the EUV-to-EUV conversion efficiency as high as 26% can be expected for practical experimental configurations using multi-terawatt NIR lasers. Such a high efficiency is possible because the driving pulse intensity can be scaled up to several orders of magnitude higher than in conventional nonlinear media, and the group-velocity and phase mismatch are insignificant at the experimental plasma densities. This effective scheme of wave mixing can be utilized for ultrafast EUV waveform measurement and control as well as wavelength conversion.

Spectrum and Angular Distribution of γ-rays from Radiative Damping in Extremely Relativistic Laser-Plasma Interaction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pandit, Rishi; Sentoku, Yasuhiko

2013-10-01

Effects of the radiative damping in the interaction of extremely intense laser (> 1022 W/cm2) with dense plasma is studied via a relativistic collisional particle-in-cell simulation, PICLS. When the laser intensity is getting close to 1024 W/cm2, the effect of quantum electrodynamics (QED) appears. We had calculated γ-rays from the radiative damping processes based on the classical model [1], but had taken into account the QED effect [2] in the spectrum calculation. In ultra-intense laser-plasma interaction, electrons are accelerated by the strong laser fields and emit γ-ray photons mainly via two processes, namely, Bremsstrahlung and radiative damping. Such relativistic γ-ray has wide range of frequencies and the angular distribution depends on the hot electron source. Comparing the details of γ-rays from the Bremsstrahlung and the radiative damping in simulations, we will discuss the laser parameters and the target conditions (geometry and material) to distinguish the photons from each process and also the QED effect in the γ-rays spectrum at the extremely relativistic intensity. Supported by US DOE DE-SC0008827.

Major hydrologic shifts in northwest Florida during the Holocene from a lacustrine sediment record

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodysill, J. R.; Donnelly, J. P.

2011-12-01

Recent climate extremes have threatened water resource availability and destroyed homes and infrastructure along the heavily populated northern Gulf of Mexico coast. Water resources in Northwest Florida, in particular, suffer from declining aquifer levels and salt water intrusion despite the presence of extensive river and aquifer systems. Intensive water resource management has been necessary to meet water supply demands during recent droughts. Advanced preparedness for abrupt climate events requires the ability to anticipate when hydrologic extremes are likely to occur; however, the long-term history of hydrologic extremes is not well known, and the instrumental record is too short to resolve longer-term hydrologic variability. Reconstructing the pre-instrumental hydrologic history is essential to building our understanding of the timing of and the driving forces behind wet and dry extremes. Here we present a new record of paleohydrology in northwest Florida based upon variations in sediment lithology and geochemistry from Rattlesnake Lake. We see evidence for both brief and long-lived changes in the lake environment during the Holocene. We compare our record to published pollen-based reconstructions of paleohydrology to examine the spatial and temporal patterns of paleohydrologic extremes across the northern Gulf of Mexico region during the Holocene.

Detection of photosynthetic responses of cool-temperate forests following extreme climate events using Bayesian inversion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Toda, M.; Knohl, A.; Herbst, M.; Keenan, T. F.; Yokozawa, M.

2016-12-01

The increase in extreme climate events associated with ongoing global warming may create severe damage to terrestrial ecosystems, changing plant structure and the eco-physiological functions that regulate ecosystem carbon exchange. However, most damage is usually due to moderate, rather than catastrophic, disturbances. The nature of plant functional responses to such disturbances, and the resulting effects on the terrestrial carbon cycle, remain poorly understood. To unravel the scientific question, tower-based eddy covariance data in the cool-temperate forests were used to constrain plant eco-physiological parameters in a persimoneous ecosystem model that may have affected carbon dynamics following extreme climate events using the statistic Bayesian inversion approach. In the present study, we raised two types of extreme events relevant for cool-temperate regions, i.e. a typhoon with mechanistic foliage destraction and a heat wave with severe drought. With appropriate evaluation of parameter and predictive uncertainties, the inversion analysis shows annual trajectory of activated photosynthetic responses following climate extremes compared the pre-disturbance state in each forest. We address that forests with moderate disturbance show substantial and rapid photosynthetic recovery, enhanced productivity, and, thus, ecosystem carbon exchange, although the effect of extreme climatic events varies depending on the stand successional phase and the type, intensity, timing and legacy of the disturbance.

On-line depth measurement for laser-drilled holes based on the intensity of plasma emission

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ho, Chao-Ching; Chiu, Chih-Mu; Chang, Yuan-Jen; Hsu, Jin-Chen; Kuo, Chia-Lung

2014-09-01

The direct time-resolved depth measurement of blind holes is extremely difficult due to the short time interval and the limited space inside the hole. This work presents a method that involves on-line plasma emission acquisition and analysis to obtain correlations between the machining processes and the optical signal output. Given that the depths of laser-machined holes can be estimated on-line using a coaxial photodiode, this was employed in our inspection system. Our experiments were conducted in air under normal atmospheric conditions without gas assist. The intensity of radiation emitted from the vaporized material was found to correlate with the depth of the hole. The results indicate that the estimated depths of the laser-drilled holes were inversely proportional to the maximum plasma light emission measured for a given laser pulse number.

Impacts of heat waves with or without drought - immediate responses and legacy effects in temperate and alpine grassland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

De Boeck, H. J.

2017-12-01

Climate change is rapidly increasing both the frequency and intensity of weather extremes such as drought spells and heat waves. Moreover, drought and heat are often coupled, and the compound effects can often not be readily derived from observations of the single-factor impacts. We here present results from experiments carried out in two distinct types of grassland, temperate and alpine, and look into both immediate and after-effects of droughts and heat waves as single factors or in conjunction. Perhaps surprisingly, both ecosystems responded very similarly in the short term (i.e. during the extreme): heat waves only caused significant physiological stress leading to senescence and productivity declines if soil water was in short supply. Warmer conditions led to faster and more intense drying, which in turn increased tissue temperatures as stomatal conductance and therefore heat dissipation decreased. The after-effects diverged significantly between the two grassland types though: whereas temperate grassland was characterised by rapid recovery and no major shifts in community composition and diversity, the harshest extremes had a more lasting impact in alpine grassland. There, it took two growing seasons for biomass production to recover, while vegetation cover was still reduced at that time. Furthermore, functional group composition had shifted, with a higher fraction of graminoid versus herbaceous species and lower overall species richness. This research demonstrates that impacts of extreme weather events can be very different when considering single-factor versus interacting events, and that similar initial responses in different ecosystems may not hold in the longer term.

Design and control of RUPERT: a device for robotic upper extremity repetitive therapy.

PubMed

Sugar, Thomas G; He, Jiping; Koeneman, Edward J; Koeneman, James B; Herman, Richard; Huang, H; Schultz, Robert S; Herring, D E; Wanberg, J; Balasubramanian, Sivakumar; Swenson, Pete; Ward, Jeffrey A

2007-09-01

The structural design, control system, and integrated biofeedback for a wearable exoskeletal robot for upper extremity stroke rehabilitation are presented. Assisted with clinical evaluation, designers, engineers, and scientists have built a device for robotic assisted upper extremity repetitive therapy (RUPERT). Intense, repetitive physical rehabilitation has been shown to be beneficial overcoming upper extremity deficits, but the therapy is labor intensive and expensive and difficult to evaluate quantitatively and objectively. The RUPERT is developed to provide a low cost, safe and easy-to-use, robotic-device to assist the patient and therapist to achieve more systematic therapy at home or in the clinic. The RUPERT has four actuated degrees-of-freedom driven by compliant and safe pneumatic muscles (PMs) on the shoulder, elbow, and wrist. They are programmed to actuate the device to extend the arm and move the arm in 3-D space. It is very important to note that gravity is not compensated and the daily tasks are practiced in a natural setting. Because the device is wearable and lightweight to increase portability, it can be worn standing or sitting providing therapy tasks that better mimic activities of daily living. The sensors feed back position and force information for quantitative evaluation of task performance. The device can also provide real-time, objective assessment of functional improvement. We have tested the device on stroke survivors performing two critical activities of daily living (ADL): reaching out and self feeding. The future improvement of the device involves increased degrees-of-freedom and interactive control to adapt to a user's physical conditions.

Influence of sleep deprivation and auditory intensity on reaction time and response force.

PubMed

Włodarczyk, Dariusz; Jaśkowski, Piotr; Nowik, Agnieszka

2002-06-01

Arousal and activation are two variables supposed to underlie change in response force. This study was undertaken to explain these roles, specifically, for strong auditory stimuli and sleep deficit. Loud auditory stimuli can evoke phasic overarousal whereas sleep deficit leads to general underarousal. Moreover, Van der Molen and Keuss (1979, 1981) showed that paradoxically long reaction times occurred with extremely strong auditory stimuli when the task was difficult, e.g., choice reaction or Simon paradigm. It was argued that this paradoxical behavior related to reaction time is due to active disconnecting of the coupling between arousal and activation to prevent false responses. If so, we predicted that for extremely loud stimuli and for difficult tasks, the lengthening of reaction time should be associated with reduction of response force. The effects of loudness and sleep deficit on response time and force were investigated in three different tasks: simple response, choice response, and Simon paradigm. According to our expectation, we found a detrimental effect of sleep deficit on reaction time and on response force. In contrast to Van der Molen and Keuss, we found no increase in reaction time for loud stimuli (up to 110 dB) even on the Simon task.

Will the warmer temperature bring the more intensity precipitation?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yutong, Z., II; Wang, T.

2017-12-01

Will the warmer temperature bring the more intensity precipitation?Over the past several decades, changes in climate are amplified over the Tibetan Plateau(TP), with warming trend almost being twice as large as the global average. In sharp contrast, there is a large spatial discrepancy of the variations in precipitation extremes, with increasing trends found in the southern and decreasing trends in central TP. These features motivate are urgent need for an observation-based understanding of how precipitation extremes respond to climate change. Here we examine the relation between precipitation intensity with atmospheric temperature, dew point temperature (Td) and convective available potential energy (CAPE) in Tibet Plateau. Owing to the influences of the westerlies and Indian monsoon on Tibetan climate, the stations can be divided into three sub-regions in TP: the westerlies region (north of 35°N, N = 28), the monsoon region (south of 30°N in TP, N = 31), and the transition region (located between 30°N and 35°N, N = 48). We found that the intensity precipitation does not follow the C-C relation and there is a mix of positive and negative slope. To better understand why different scaling occurs with temperature in district region, using the dew point temperature replace the temperature, although there is significant variability in relative humidity values, at most stations, there appears to be a general increase in relative humidity associated. It is likely that the observed rise in relative humidity can assist in explaining the negative scaling of extreme precipitation at westerlies domain and monsoon domain, with the primary reason why precipitation extremes expected to increase follows from the fact that a warmer atmosphere can "hold" more moisture. This suggests that not only on how much the moisture the atmosphere can hold, but on how much moisture exits in atmosphere. To understand the role of dynamic on extreme precipitation, we repeat the precipitation intense analysis using ln(CAPE) as regression. The CAPE is the vertical integral of parcel buoyancy between the level of free convection and level of neutral buoyancy. We find almost all pixels are positive and pass through the 0.05 confidence limit. We can conclude that the intensity of moist convection is an important for the extreme precipitation.

Characteristic analysis of the lower limb muscular strength training system applied with MR dampers.

PubMed

Yu, Chang Ho; Piao, Young Jun; Kim, Kyung; Kwon, Tae Kyu

2014-01-01

A new training system that can adjust training intensity and indicate the center pressure of a subject was proposed by applying controlled electric current to the Magneto-Rheological damper. The experimental studying on the muscular activities were performed in lower extremities during maintaining and moving exercises, which were processed on an unstable platform with Magneto rheological dampers and recorded in a monitor. The electromyography (EMG) signals of the eight muscles in lower extremities were recorded and analyzed in certain time and frequency domain. Muscles researched in this paper were rectus femoris (RF), biceps femoris (BF), tensor fasciae latae (TFL), vastuslateralis (VL), vastusmedialis (VM), gastrocnemius (Ga), tibialis anterior (TA), and soleus (So). Differences of muscular activities during four moving exercises were studied in our experimental results. The rate of the increment of the muscular activities was affected by the condition of the unstable platform with MR dampers, which suggested the difference of moving exercises could selectively train each muscle with varying intensities. Furthermore, these findings also proposed that this training system can improve the ability of postural balance.

Hospital outcomes of extremely low birth weight infants after introduction of donor milk to supplement mother's milk.

PubMed

Verd, Sergio; Porta, Roser; Botet, Francesc; Gutiérrez, Antonio; Ginovart, Gemma; Barbero, Ana Herranz; Ciurana, Anna; Plata, Isabel Iglesias

2015-04-01

This study evaluated the impact of an exclusive human milk diet to nourish extremely low birth weight infants in the neonatal intensive care unit. This multicenter pre-post retrospective study included all inborn infants <1,000 g admitted to four Level IV neonatal intensive care units either before or after implementing a donor human milk policy. The feeding protocol was unchanged in both periods. Collected data included maternal/infant demographics, infant clinical data, and enteral intake as mother's own milk, donor milk, and formula. Two hundred one infants were enrolled. Infant growth and other clinical outcomes were similar in both groups. Exposure to mother's own milk at discharge was not different. Median time in oxygen and duration of mechanical ventilation were significantly higher among formula-fed infants (63 versus 192 hours [p=0.046] and 24 versus 60 hours [p=0.016], respectively). Our results add evidence supporting the safety of donor milk. This study also found an association between exposure to formula in preterm infants and the requirement for respiratory support, a finding that warrants further investigation.

[The German DRG system 2003-2010 from the perspective of intensive care medicine].

PubMed

Franz, Dominik; Bunzemeier, Holger; Roeder, Norbert; Reinecke, Holger

2010-01-01

Intensive care medicine is extremely heterogeneous, expensive and can only be partially planned and controlled. A correct and fair representation of intensive care medicine in the G-DRG system is an essential requirement for the use as a pricing system. From the perspective of intensive care medicine, pertinent changes of the DRG structure and differentiation of relevant parameters have been established within the G-DRG systems 2003-2010. Analysis of relevant diagnoses, medical procedures, co-payment structures and G-DRGs in the versions 2003-2010 based on the publications of the German DRG Institute (InEK) and the German Institute of Medical Documentation and Information (DIMDI). Since the first G-DRG system version 2003, numerous measures improved quality of case allocation of intensive care medicine. Highly relevant to the system version 2010 are duration of mechanical ventilation, the intensive care treatment complex and complicating constellations. The number of G-DRGs relevant to intensive medical care increased from n = 3 (2003) to n = 58 (2010). For standard cases, quality of case allocation and G-DRG reimbursement are adequate in 2010. The G-DRG system gained complexity again. High demands are made on correct and complete coding of complex cases. Nevertheless, further adjustments of the G-DRG system especially for cases with extremely high costs are necessary. Where the G-DRG system is unable to cover extremely high-cost cases, reimbursement solutions beyond the G-DRG structure should be taken into account.

The potential impacts of climate variability and change on health impacts of extreme weather events in the United States.

PubMed

Greenough, G; McGeehin, M; Bernard, S M; Trtanj, J; Riad, J; Engelberg, D

2001-05-01

Extreme weather events such as precipitation extremes and severe storms cause hundreds of deaths and injuries annually in the United States. Climate change may alter the frequency, timing, intensity, and duration of these events. Increases in heavy precipitation have occurred over the past century. Future climate scenarios show likely increases in the frequency of extreme precipitation events, including precipitation during hurricanes, raising the risk of floods. Frequencies of tornadoes and hurricanes cannot reliably be projected. Injury and death are the direct health impacts most often associated with natural disasters. Secondary effects, mediated by changes in ecologic systems and public health infrastructure, also occur. The health impacts of extreme weather events hinge on the vulnerabilities and recovery capacities of the natural environment and the local population. Relevant variables include building codes, warning systems, disaster policies, evacuation plans, and relief efforts. There are many federal, state, and local government agencies and nongovernmental organizations involved in planning for and responding to natural disasters in the United States. Future research on health impacts of extreme weather events should focus on improving climate models to project any trends in regional extreme events and as a result improve public health preparedness and mitigation. Epidemiologic studies of health effects beyond the direct impacts of disaster will provide a more accurate measure of the full health impacts and will assist in planning and resource allocation.

Transient lattice contraction in the solid-to-plasma transition

PubMed Central

Ferguson, Ken R.; Bucher, Maximilian; Gorkhover, Tais; Boutet, Sébastien; Fukuzawa, Hironobu; Koglin, Jason E.; Kumagai, Yoshiaki; Lutman, Alberto; Marinelli, Agostino; Messerschmidt, Marc; Nagaya, Kiyonobu; Turner, Jim; Ueda, Kiyoshi; Williams, Garth J.; Bucksbaum, Philip H.; Bostedt, Christoph

2016-01-01

In condensed matter systems, strong optical excitations can induce phonon-driven processes that alter their mechanical properties. We report on a new phenomenon where a massive electronic excitation induces a collective change in the bond character that leads to transient lattice contraction. Single large van der Waals clusters were isochorically heated to a nanoplasma state with an intense 10-fs x-ray (pump) pulse. The structural evolution of the nanoplasma was probed with a second intense x-ray (probe) pulse, showing systematic contraction stemming from electron delocalization during the solid-to-plasma transition. These findings are relevant for any material in extreme conditions ranging from the time evolution of warm or hot dense matter to ultrafast imaging with intense x-ray pulses or, more generally, any situation that involves a condensed matter-to-plasma transition. PMID:27152323

The New York City Operations Support Tool: Supporting Water Supply Operations for Millions in an Era of Changing Patterns in Hydrological Extreme Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matonse, A. H.; Porter, J. H.; Frei, A.

2015-12-01

Providing an average 1.1 billion gallons (~ 4.2 x 106 cubic meters) of drinking water per day to approximately nine million people in New York City (NYC) and four upstate counties, the NYC water supply is among the world's largest unfiltered systems. In addition to providing a reliable water supply in terms of water quantity and quality, the city has to fulfill other flow objectives to serve downstream communities. At times, such as during extreme hydrological events, water quality issues may restrict water usage for parts of the system. To support a risk-based water supply decision making process NYC has developed the Operations Support Tool (OST). OST combines a water supply systems model with reservoir water quality models, near real time data ingestion, data base management and an ensemble hydrological forecast. A number of reports have addressed the frequency and intensities of extreme hydrological events across the continental US. In the northeastern US studies have indicated an increase in the frequency of extremely large precipitation and streamflow events during the most recent decades. During this presentation we describe OST and, using case studies we demonstrate how this tool has been useful to support operational decisions. We also want to motivate a discussion about how undergoing changes in patterns of hydrological extreme events elevate the challenge faced by water supply managers and the role of the scientific community to integrate nonstationarity approaches in hydrologic forecast and modeling.

Future flood risk in the tropics as measured by changes in extreme runoff intensity is strongly influenced by plant-physiological responses to rising CO2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kooperman, G. J.; Hoffman, F. M.; Koven, C.; Lindsay, K. T.; Swann, A. L. S.; Randerson, J. T.

2017-12-01

Climate change is expected to increase the frequency of intense flooding events, and thus the risk of flood-related mortality, infrastructure damage, and economic loss. Assessments of future flooding from global climate models based only on precipitation intensity and temperature neglect important processes that occur within the land-surface, particularly the impacts of plant-physiological responses to rising CO2. Higher CO2 reduces stomatal conductance, leading to less water loss through transpiration and higher soil moisture. For a given precipitation rate, higher soil moisture decreases the amount of rainwater that infiltrates the surface and increases runoff. Here we assess the relative impacts of plant-physiological and radiative-greenhouse effects on changes in extreme runoff intensity over tropical continents using the Community Earth System Model. We find that extreme percentile rates increase significantly more than mean runoff in response to higher CO2. Plant-physiological effects contribute to only a small increase in precipitation intensity, but are a dominant driver of runoff intensification, contributing to one-half of the 99th percentile runoff intensity change and one-third of the 99.9th percentile change. Comprehensive assessments of future flooding risk need to account for the physiological as well as radiative impacts of CO2 in order to better inform flood prediction and mitigation practices.

Effects of the lower extremities muscle activation during muscular strength training on an unstable platform with magneto-rheological dampers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Piao, YongJun; Choi, YounJung; Kim, JungJa; Kwan, TaeKyu; Kim, Nam-Gyun

2009-03-01

Adequate postural balance depends on the spatial and temporal integration of vestibular, visual, and somatosensory information. Especially, the musculoskeletal function (range of joint, flexibility of spine, muscular strength) is essential in maintaining the postural balance. Muscular strength training methods include the use of commercialized devices and repeatable resistance training tools (rubber band, ball, etc). These training systems cost high price and can't control of intensity. Thus we suggest a new training system which can adjust training intensity and indicate the center of pressure of a subject while the training was passively controlled by applying controlled electric current to the Magneto- Rheological damper. And we performed experimental studies on the muscular activities in the lower extremities during maintaining, moving and pushing exercises on an unstable platform with Magneto rheological dampers. A subject executed the maintaining, moving and pushing exercises which were displayed in a monitor. The electromyographic signals of the eight muscles in lower extremities were recorded and analyzed in the time and frequency domain: the muscles of interest were rectus femoris, biceps femoris, tensor fasciae latae, vastus lateralis, vastus medialis, gastrocnemius, tibialis anterior, and soleus. The experimental results showed the difference of muscular activities at the four moving exercises and the nine maintaining exercises. The rate of the increase in the muscular activities was affected by the condition of the unstable platform with MR dampers for the maintaining and moving exercises. The experimental results suggested the choice of different maintaining and moving exercises could selectively train different muscles with varying intensity. Furthermore, the findings also suggested the training using this system can improve the ability of postural balance.

Cosmic ray variations of solar origin in relation to human physiological state during the December 2006 solar extreme events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Papailiou, M.; Mavromichalaki, H.; Vassilaki, A.; Kelesidis, K. M.; Mertzanos, G. A.; Petropoulos, B.

2009-02-01

There is an increasing amount of evidence linking biological effects to solar and geomagnetic disturbances. A series of studies is published referring to the changes in human physiological responses at different levels of geomagnetic activity. In this study, the possible relation between the daily variations of cosmic ray intensity, measured by the Neutron Monitor at the Cosmic Ray Station of the University of Athens (http://cosray.phys.uoa.gr) and the average daily and hourly heart rate variations of persons, with no symptoms or hospital admission, monitored by Holter electrocardiogram, is considered. This work refers to a group of persons admitted to the cardiological clinic of the KAT Hospital in Athens during the time period from 4th to 24th December 2006 that is characterized by extreme solar and geomagnetic activity. A series of Forbush decreases started on 6th December and lasted until the end of the month and a great solar proton event causing a Ground Level Enhancement (GLE) of the cosmic ray intensity on 13th December occurred. A sudden decrease of the cosmic ray intensity on 15th December, when a geomagnetic storm was registered, was also recorded in Athens Neutron Monitor station (cut-off rigidity 8.53 GV) with amplitude of 4%. It is noticed that during geomagnetically quiet days the heart rate and the cosmic ray intensity variations are positively correlated. When intense cosmic ray variations, like Forbush decreases and relativistic proton events produced by strong solar phenomena occur, cosmic ray intensity and heart rate get minimum values and their variations, also, coincide. During these events the correlation coefficient of these two parameters changes and follows the behavior of the cosmic ray intensity variations. This is only a small part of an extended investigation, which has begun using data from the year 2002 and is still in progress.

Sensitivity of extreme precipitation to temperature: the variability of scaling factors from a regional to local perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schroeer, K.; Kirchengast, G.

2018-06-01

Potential increases in extreme rainfall induced hazards in a warming climate have motivated studies to link precipitation intensities to temperature. Increases exceeding the Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) rate of 6-7%/°C-1 are seen in short-duration, convective, high-percentile rainfall at mid latitudes, but the rates of change cease or revert at regionally variable threshold temperatures due to moisture limitations. It is unclear, however, what these findings mean in term of the actual risk of extreme precipitation on a regional to local scale. When conditioning precipitation intensities on local temperatures, key influences on the scaling relationship such as from the annual cycle and regional weather patterns need better understanding. Here we analyze these influences, using sub-hourly to daily precipitation data from a dense network of 189 stations in south-eastern Austria. We find that the temperature sensitivities in the mountainous western region are lower than in the eastern lowlands. This is due to the different weather patterns that cause extreme precipitation in these regions. Sub-hourly and hourly intensities intensify at super-CC and CC-rates, respectively, up to temperatures of about 17 °C. However, we also find that, because of the regional and seasonal variability of the precipitation intensities, a smaller scaling factor can imply a larger absolute change in intensity. Our insights underline that temperature precipitation scaling requires careful interpretation of the intent and setting of the study. When this is considered, conditional scaling factors can help to better understand which influences control the intensification of rainfall with temperature on a regional scale.

Impact of climate change on European weather extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duchez, Aurelie; Forryan, Alex; Hirschi, Joel; Sinha, Bablu; New, Adrian; Freychet, Nicolas; Scaife, Adam; Graham, Tim

2015-04-01

An emerging science consensus is that global climate change will result in more extreme weather events with concomitant increasing financial losses. Key questions that arise are: Can an upward trend in natural extreme events be recognised and predicted at the European scale? What are the key drivers within the climate system that are changing and making extreme weather events more frequent, more intense, or both? Using state-of-the-art coupled climate simulations from the UK Met Office (HadGEM3-GC2, historical and future scenario runs) as well as reanalysis data, we highlight the potential of the currently most advanced forecasting systems to progress understanding of the causative drivers of European weather extremes, and assess future frequency and intensity of extreme weather under various climate change scenarios. We characterize European extremes in these simulations using a subset of the 27 core indices for temperature and precipitation from The Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (Tank et al., 2009). We focus on temperature and precipitation extremes (e.g. extremes in daily and monthly precipitation and temperatures) and relate them to the atmospheric modes of variability over Europe in order to establish the large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns that are conducive to the occurrence of extreme precipitation and temperature events. Klein Tank, Albert M.G., and Francis W. Zwiers. Guidelines on Analysis of Extremes in a Changing Climate in Support of Informed Decisions for Adaptation. WMO-TD No. 1500. Climate Data and Monitoring. World Meteorological Organization, 2009.

Dynamic Analysis of Soil Erosion in Songhua River Watershed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Yujuan; Li, Xiuhai; Wang, Qiang; Liu, Jiang; Liang, Xin; Li, Dan; Ni, Chundi; Liu, Yan

2018-01-01

In this paper, based on RS and GIS technology and Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE), the soil erosion dynamic changes during the two periods of 1990 and 2010 in Bin County was analyzed by using the Landsat TM data of the two periods, so as to reveal the soil erosion spatial distribution pattern and spatial and temporal dynamic evolution rule in the region. The results showed that: the overall patterns of soil erosion were basically the same in both periods, mainly featuring slight erosion and mild erosion, with the area proportions of 80.68% and 74.71% respectively. The slight and extremely intensive erosion changing rates showed a narrowing trend; mild, moderate and intensive erosion was increasing, with a trend of increased soil erosion; mild and intensive erosion were developing towards moderate erosion and moderate and extremely intensive erosion were progressing towards intensive erosion.

Plasma and radiation detection via fiber interferometry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dolan, D. H.; Bell, K.; Fox, B.; Jones, S. C.; Knapp, P.; Gomez, M. R.; Martin, M.; Porwitzky, A.; Laity, G.

2018-01-01

Photonic Doppler velocimetry tracks motion during high-speed, single-event experiments using telecommunication fiber components. The same technology can be applied in situations where there is no actual motion, but rather a change in the optical path length. Migration of plasma into vacuum alters the refractive index near a fiber probe, while intense radiation modifies the refractive index of the fiber itself. These changes can diagnose extreme environments in a flexible, time-resolved manner.

Plasma and radiation detection via fiber interferometry

DOE PAGES

Dolan, D. H.; Bell, Kate Suzanne; Fox, Brian Philip; ...

2018-01-17

Photonic Doppler velocimetry tracks motion during high-speed, single-event experiments using telecommunication fiber components. The same technology can be applied in situations where there is no actual motion, but rather a change in the optical path length. Migration of plasma into vacuum alters the refractive index near a fiber probe, while intense radiation modifies the refractive index of the fiber itself. Lastly, these changes can diagnose extreme environments in a flexible, time-resolved manner.

Plasma and radiation detection via fiber interferometry

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dolan, D. H.; Bell, Kate Suzanne; Fox, Brian Philip

Photonic Doppler velocimetry tracks motion during high-speed, single-event experiments using telecommunication fiber components. The same technology can be applied in situations where there is no actual motion, but rather a change in the optical path length. Migration of plasma into vacuum alters the refractive index near a fiber probe, while intense radiation modifies the refractive index of the fiber itself. Lastly, these changes can diagnose extreme environments in a flexible, time-resolved manner.

[Parallel virtual reality visualization of extreme large medical datasets].

PubMed

Tang, Min

2010-04-01

On the basis of a brief description of grid computing, the essence and critical techniques of parallel visualization of extreme large medical datasets are discussed in connection with Intranet and common-configuration computers of hospitals. In this paper are introduced several kernel techniques, including the hardware structure, software framework, load balance and virtual reality visualization. The Maximum Intensity Projection algorithm is realized in parallel using common PC cluster. In virtual reality world, three-dimensional models can be rotated, zoomed, translated and cut interactively and conveniently through the control panel built on virtual reality modeling language (VRML). Experimental results demonstrate that this method provides promising and real-time results for playing the role in of a good assistant in making clinical diagnosis.

Extreme Magnitude Earthquakes and their Economical Consequences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chavez, M.; Cabrera, E.; Ashworth, M.; Perea, N.; Emerson, D.; Salazar, A.; Moulinec, C.

2011-12-01

The frequency of occurrence of extreme magnitude earthquakes varies from tens to thousands of years, depending on the considered seismotectonic region of the world. However, the human and economic losses when their hypocenters are located in the neighborhood of heavily populated and/or industrialized regions, can be very large, as recently observed for the 1985 Mw 8.01 Michoacan, Mexico and the 2011 Mw 9 Tohoku, Japan, earthquakes. Herewith, a methodology is proposed in order to estimate the probability of exceedance of: the intensities of extreme magnitude earthquakes, PEI and of their direct economical consequences PEDEC. The PEI are obtained by using supercomputing facilities to generate samples of the 3D propagation of extreme earthquake plausible scenarios, and enlarge those samples by Monte Carlo simulation. The PEDEC are computed by using appropriate vulnerability functions combined with the scenario intensity samples, and Monte Carlo simulation. An example of the application of the methodology due to the potential occurrence of extreme Mw 8.5 subduction earthquakes on Mexico City is presented.

Human survivability of extreme impacts in free-fall.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1963-08-01

Human deceleration tolerances beyond the limits imposed by voluntary experimental methods were studied by means of intensive case histories of 137 individuals who have survived extremely abrupt impacts in accidental, suicidal, and homicidal free-fall...

Increased hospital admissions associated with extreme-heat exposure in King County, Washington, 1990-2010

PubMed Central

Isaksen, Tania Busch; Yost, Michael G.; Hom, Elizabeth K.; Ren, You; Lyons, Hilary; Fenske, Richard A.

2016-01-01

Increased morbidity and mortality have been associated with extreme heat events, particularly in temperate climates. Few epidemiologic studies have considered the impact of extreme heat events on hospitalization rates in the Pacific Northwest region. This study quantifies the historical (May to September 1990-2010) heat-morbidity relationship in the most populous Pacific Northwest County -King County, Washington. A relative risk (RR) analysis was used to explore the association between heat and all non-traumatic hospitalizations on 99th percentile heat days, while a time series analysis using a piece-wise linear model approximation was used to estimate the effect that heat’s intensity has on hospitalizations, adjusted for temporal trends and day of the week. A non-statistically significant 2% [95% CI: 1.02 (0.98, 1.05)] increase in hospitalization risk, on a heat day versus a non-heat day, was noted for all-ages, all non-traumatic causes. When considering the effect heat intensity has on admissions, we found a statistically significant 1.59% (95% CI: 0.9%, 2.29%) increase in admissions per degree increase in humidex above 37.4 °C. Admissions stratified by cause and age produced statistically significant results with both relative risk and time series analyses for nephritis and nephrotic syndromes, acute renal failure and natural heat exposure hospitalizations. This study demonstrates that heat, expressed as humidex, is associated with increased hospital admissions. When stratified by age and cause of admission, the non-elderly (less than 85) age groups experience significant risk for: nephritis and nephrotic syndromes, acute renal failure, natural heat exposure, COPD and asthma hospitalizations. PMID:25719287

Rehab-let: touchscreen tablet for self-training impaired dexterity post stroke: study protocol for a pilot randomized controlled trial.

PubMed

Rand, Debbie; Zeilig, Gabi; Kizony, Rachel

2015-06-18

Impaired dexterity of the weaker upper extremity is common post stroke and it is recommended that these individuals practice many repetitions of movement to regain function. However, stroke rehabilitation methods do not achieve the required intensity to be effective. Touchscreen tablet technology may be used as a motivating tool for self-training impaired dexterity of the weaker upper extremity post stroke. Rehab-let is a self-training protocol utilizing game apps on a touchscreen for practicing movement of the weaker upper extremity. We will conduct a pilot randomized controlled trial to assess Rehab-let compared to traditional self-training to improve dexterity of the weaker hand, and to increase self-training time and satisfaction in individuals with subacute stroke. Forty individuals with stroke undergoing subacute rehabilitation will be randomly allocated to Rehab-let or a traditional self-training program using therapeutic aids such as balls, blocks and pegs. All participants will be requested to perform self-training for 60 minutes a day, 5 times a week for 4 weeks. Dexterity assessed by The Nine Hole Peg Test is the main outcome measure. Assessments will be administered pre and post the self-training intervention by assessors blind to the group allocation. The outcomes of this study will inform the design of a fully powered randomized controlled trial to evaluate the effectiveness of Rehab-let. If found to be effective, Rehab-let can be used during subacute rehabilitation to increase treatment intensity and improve dexterity. Potentially, Rehab-let can also be used after discharge and might be ideal for individuals with mild stroke who are often not referred to formal rehabilitation. Current Controlled Trials NCT02136433 registered on 17 September 2014.

Extreme Attributions Predict the Course of Bipolar Depression: Results from the STEP-BD Randomized Controlled Trial of Psychosocial Treatment

PubMed Central

Stange, Jonathan P.; Sylvia, Louisa G.; da Silva Magalhães, Pedro Vieira; Miklowitz, David J.; Otto, Michael W.; Frank, Ellen; Berk, Michael; Nierenberg, Andrew A.; Deckersbach, Thilo

2013-01-01

Objective Little is known about predictors of recovery from bipolar depression or moderators of treatment response. In the present study we investigated attributional style (a cognitive pattern of explaining the causes of life events) as a predictor of recovery from episodes of bipolar depression and as a moderator of response to psychotherapy for bipolar depression. Method 106 depressed outpatients with DSM-IV bipolar I or II disorder enrolled in the Systematic Treatment Enhancement Program for Bipolar Disorder (STEP-BD) were randomized to intensive psychotherapy for depression (n=62), or collaborative care (n=44), a minimal psychoeducational intervention. The primary outcome was recovery status at each study visit as measured by the Clinical Monitoring Form. Attributional style was measured at baseline using the Attributional Style Questionnaire. Data were collected between 1998 and 2005. Results All analyses were by intention to treat. Extreme attributions predicted a lower likelihood of recovery (p=.01, OR=0.93, 95% CI=.88-.98) and longer time until recovery (p<.01, OR=0.96, 95% CI=.93-.99), independent of the effects of initial depression severity. Among individuals with more pessimistic attributional styles, initial depression severity predicted a lower likelihood of recovery (p=.01, OR=0.64, 95% CI=.45-.91) and longer time until recovery (p<.001, OR=0.76, 95% CI=.66-.88). There was no difference in recovery rates between intensive psychotherapy and collaborative care (OR=0.90, 95% CI=0.40-2.01) in the full sample. Conclusions These results suggest that extreme, rigid attributions may be associated with a more severe course of depression, and that evaluating attributional style may help clinicians to identify patients who are at risk for experiencing a more severe course of depression. PMID:23561230

Influence of land-atmosphere feedbacks on temperature and precipitation extremes in the GLACE-CMIP5 ensemble

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lorenz, Ruth; Argüeso, Daniel; Donat, Markus G.; Pitman, Andrew J.; van den Hurk, Bart; Berg, Alexis; Lawrence, David M.; Chéruy, Frédérique; Ducharne, Agnès.; Hagemann, Stefan; Meier, Arndt; Milly, P. C. D.; Seneviratne, Sonia I.

2016-01-01

We examine how soil moisture variability and trends affect the simulation of temperature and precipitation extremes in six global climate models using the experimental protocol of the Global Land-Atmosphere Coupling Experiment of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (GLACE-CMIP5). This protocol enables separate examinations of the influences of soil moisture variability and trends on the intensity, frequency, and duration of climate extremes by the end of the 21st century under a business-as-usual (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5) emission scenario. Removing soil moisture variability significantly reduces temperature extremes over most continental surfaces, while wet precipitation extremes are enhanced in the tropics. Projected drying trends in soil moisture lead to increases in intensity, frequency, and duration of temperature extremes by the end of the 21st century. Wet precipitation extremes are decreased in the tropics with soil moisture trends in the simulations, while dry extremes are enhanced in some regions, in particular the Mediterranean and Australia. However, the ensemble results mask considerable differences in the soil moisture trends simulated by the six climate models. We find that the large differences between the models in soil moisture trends, which are related to an unknown combination of differences in atmospheric forcing (precipitation, net radiation), flux partitioning at the land surface, and how soil moisture is parameterized, imply considerable uncertainty in future changes in climate extremes.

[Effects of extremely low frequency electromagnetic radiation on cardiovascular system of workers].

PubMed

Zhao, Long-yu; Song, Chun-xiao; Yu, Duo; Liu, Xiao-liang; Guo, Jian-qiu; Wang, Chuan; Ding, Yuan-wei; Zhou, Hong-xia; Ma, Shu-mei; Liu, Xiao-dong; Liu, Xin

2012-03-01

To observe the exposure levels of extremely low frequency electromagnetic fields in workplaces and to analyze the effects of extremely low frequency electromagnetic radiation on cardiovascular system of occupationally exposed people. Intensity of electromagnetic fields in two workplaces (control and exposure groups) was detected with EFA-300 frequency electromagnetic field strength tester, and intensity of the noise was detected with AWA5610D integral sound level. The information of health physical indicators of 188 controls and 642 occupationally exposed workers was collected. Data were analyzed by SPSS17.0 statistic software. The intensity of electric fields and the magnetic fields in exposure groups was significantly higher than that in control group (P < 0.05), but there was no significant difference of noise between two workplaces (P > 0.05). The results of physical examination showed that the abnormal rates of HCY, ALT, AST, GGT, ECG in the exposure group were significantly higher than those in control group (P < 0.05). There were no differences of sex, age, height, weight between two groups (P > 0.05). Exposure to extremely low frequency electromagnetic radiation may have some effects on the cardiovascular system of workers.

Desperately seeking parenthood: neonatal nurses reflect on parental anguish.

PubMed

Green, Janet; Darbyshire, Philip; Adams, Anne; Jackson, Debra

2015-07-01

This paper aims to explore the ways in which neonatal nurses understand the experience of parents who have experienced infertility, conceived a baby via in vitro fertilisation and delivered an extremely premature infant. The chance of a poor long-term outcome for the baby is significant; therefore, parental anguish plays out in the neonatal intensive care. Current literature suggests that infertility is a significant issue for ageing women and many couples experience multiple cycles of invitro-fertilisation (IVF) treatment to achieve a pregnancy. Babies conceived through IVF are more likely to have genetic disorders, and be born prematurely. When the baby is born through IVF and is also born extremely prematurely, it creates a crisis situation for the parents. This paper will focus on the parental anguish of achieving a pregnancy through IVF to see the baby born extremely prematurely (defined as ≤ 24-week gestation). It will examine parental anguish from caregiver perspective of the neonatal nurse who supports the parents through this very difficult time. This study used interviews with neonatal nurses, and drew insights from interpretative phenomenology. This research used a combination of a questionnaire and a series of interviews in a qualitative study informed by phenomenology. The analysis of the interview data involved the creation of key themes following extensive coding of thematic statements and the analysis of the emerging themes. This paper outlines the neonatal nurses' understanding of parental anguish and overwhelming sadness in parents whose baby was conceived by IVF, and was also born extremely prematurely. The theme of 'seeking parenthood' was synthesised from two sub-themes - 'longing for a baby' and 'the desperation to become parents'. This study identified that neonatal nurses bear witness to parental anguish as their hopes of taking home a live baby might not be realised. The time, effort and money required to achieve a pregnancy does not mean that the baby will be spared the outcomes of extreme prematurity and the risk factors associated with IVF. The parents may be left empty handed. Therefore, the word precious becomes a metaphor for the IVF baby as the neonatal team try desperately to give the parents their much longed baby. Delayed child bearing has an impact on fertility, with maternal age having the most impact on the ability to conceive. Babies conceived through IVF technologies have a higher risk of genetic abnormalities and being born prematurely, and this will impact on the neonatal intensive care availability. Extreme prematurity and IVF can significantly impact on the baby's outcome. Witnessing parental anguish can be a major source of stress for the neonatal nurses. Neonatal nurses need to develop strategies not only to help the parents but also to prevent the parents' overwhelming sadness from affecting their ability to function in the neonatal intensive care unit. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Novel time-of-flight spectrometer for the analysis of positron annihilation induced Auger electrons

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hugenschmidt, Christoph; Legl, Stefan; Physik-Department E21, Technische Universitaet Muenchen, James-Franck-Strasse, 85748 Garching

2006-10-15

Positron annihilation induced Auger-electron spectroscopy (PAES) has several advantages over conventional Auger-electron spectroscopy such as extremely high surface sensitivity and outstanding signal-to-noise ratio at the Auger-transition energy. In order to benefit from these prominent features a low-energy positron beam of high intensity is required for surface sensitive PAES studies. In addition, an electron energy analyzer is required, which efficiently detects the Auger electrons with acceptable energy resolution. For this reason a novel time-of-flight (TOF) spectrometer has been developed at the intense positron source NEPOMUC that allows PAES studies within short measurement time. This TOF-PAES setup combines a trochoidal filter andmore » a flight tube in a Faraday cage in order to achieve an improved energy resolution of about 1 eV at high electron energies up to E{approx_equal}1000 eV. The electron flight time is the time between the annihilation radiation at the sample and when the electron hits a microchannel plate detector at the end of the flight tube.« less

Novel time-of-flight spectrometer for the analysis of positron annihilation induced Auger electrons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hugenschmidt, Christoph; Legl, Stefan

2006-10-01

Positron annihilation induced Auger-electron spectroscopy (PAES) has several advantages over conventional Auger-electron spectroscopy such as extremely high surface sensitivity and outstanding signal-to-noise ratio at the Auger-transition energy. In order to benefit from these prominent features a low-energy positron beam of high intensity is required for surface sensitive PAES studies. In addition, an electron energy analyzer is required, which efficiently detects the Auger electrons with acceptable energy resolution. For this reason a novel time-of-flight (TOF) spectrometer has been developed at the intense positron source NEPOMUC that allows PAES studies within short measurement time. This TOF-PAES setup combines a trochoidal filter and a flight tube in a Faraday cage in order to achieve an improved energy resolution of about 1eV at high electron energies up to E ≈1000eV. The electron flight time is the time between the annihilation radiation at the sample and when the electron hits a microchannel plate detector at the end of the flight tube.

Predictability and possible earlier awareness of extreme precipitation across Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lavers, David; Pappenberger, Florian; Richardson, David; Zsoter, Ervin

2017-04-01

Extreme hydrological events can cause large socioeconomic damages in Europe. In winter, a large proportion of these flood episodes are associated with atmospheric rivers, a region of intense water vapour transport within the warm sector of extratropical cyclones. When preparing for such extreme events, forecasts of precipitation from numerical weather prediction models or river discharge forecasts from hydrological models are generally used. Given the strong link between water vapour transport (integrated vapour transport IVT) and heavy precipitation, it is possible that IVT could be used to warn of extreme events. Furthermore, as IVT is located in extratropical cyclones, it is hypothesized to be a more predictable variable due to its link with synoptic-scale atmospheric dynamics. In this research, we firstly provide an overview of the predictability of IVT and precipitation forecasts, and secondly introduce and evaluate the ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) for IVT. The EFI is a tool that has been developed to evaluate how ensemble forecasts differ from the model climate, thus revealing the extremeness of the forecast. The ability of the IVT EFI to capture extreme precipitation across Europe during winter 2013/14, 2014/15, and 2015/16 is presented. The results show that the IVT EFI is more capable than the precipitation EFI of identifying extreme precipitation in forecast week 2 during forecasts initialized in a positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) phase. However, the precipitation EFI is superior during the negative NAO phase and at shorter lead times. An IVT EFI example is shown for storm Desmond in December 2015 highlighting its potential to identify upcoming hydrometeorological extremes.

Superstrong field science

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tajima, T.; Mourou, G.

2002-04-01

Over the past fifteen years we have seen a surge in our ability to produce high intensities, five to six orders of magnitude higher than was possible before. At these intensities, particles, electrons and protons, acquire kinetic energy in the mega-electron-volt range through interaction with intense laser fields. This opens a new age for the laser, the age of nonlinear relativistic optics coupling even with nuclear physics. We suggest a path to reach an extremely high-intensity level 1026-28 W/cm2 in the coming decade, much beyond the current and near future intensity regime 1023 W/cm2, taking advantage of the megajoule laser facilities. Such a laser at extreme high intensity could accelerate particles to frontiers of high energy, tera-electron-volt and peta-electron-volt, and would become a tool of fundamental physics encompassing particle physics, gravitational physics, nonlinear field theory, ultrahigh-pressure physics, astrophysics, and cosmology. Such a laser intensity may also be very beneficial to an alternative, more direct approach of fast ignition in laser fusion. We suggest a new possibility to explore this. .

Intense Femtosecond Laser-Mediated Electrical Discharge Enables Preparation of Amorphous Nickel Phosphide Nanoparticles.

PubMed

Ma, Zhuo-Chen; Chen, Qi-Dai; Han, Bing; Li, He-Long; Wang, Lei; Zhang, Yong-Lai; Sun, Hong-Bo

2018-05-09

Reported here is a high-efficiency preparation method of amorphous nickel phosphide (Ni-P) nanoparticles by intense femtosecond laser irradiation of nickel sulfate and sodium hypophosphite aqueous solution. The underlying mechanism of the laser-assisted preparation was discussed in terms of the breaking of chemical bond in reactants via highly intense electric field discharge generated by the intense femtosecond laser. The morphology and size of the nanoparticles can be tuned by varying the reaction parameters such as ion concentration, ion molar ratio, laser power, and irradiation time. X-ray diffraction and transmission electron microscopy results demonstrated that the nanoparticles were amorphous. Finally, the thermogravimetric-differential thermal analysis experiment verified that the as-synthesized noncrystalline Ni-P nanoparticles had an excellent catalytic capability toward thermal decomposition of ammonium perchlorate. This strategy of laser-mediated electrical discharge under such an extremely intense field may create new opportunities for the decomposition of molecules or chemical bonds that could further facilitate the recombination of new atoms or chemical groups, thus bringing about new possibilities for chemical reaction initiation and nanomaterial synthesis that may not be realized under normal conditions.

Laser-driven ion acceleration: methods, challenges and prospects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Badziak, J.

2018-01-01

The recent development of laser technology has resulted in the construction of short-pulse lasers capable of generating fs light pulses with PW powers and intensities exceeding 1021 W/cm2, and has laid the basis for the multi-PW lasers, just being built in Europe, that will produce fs pulses of ultra-relativistic intensities ~ 1023 - 1024 W/cm2. The interaction of such an intense laser pulse with a dense target can result in the generation of collimated beams of ions of multi-MeV to GeV energies of sub-ps time durations and of extremely high beam intensities and ion fluencies, barely attainable with conventional RF-driven accelerators. Ion beams with such unique features have the potential for application in various fields of scientific research as well as in medical and technological developments. This paper provides a brief review of state-of-the art in laser-driven ion acceleration, with a focus on basic ion acceleration mechanisms and the production of ultra-intense ion beams. The challenges facing laser-driven ion acceleration studies, in particular those connected with potential applications of laser-accelerated ion beams, are also discussed.

Noise and light exposures for extremely low birth weight newborns during their stay in the neonatal intensive care unit.

PubMed

Lasky, Robert E; Williams, Amber L

2009-02-01

The objectives of this study were to characterize noise and light levels for extremely low birth weight newborns throughout their stay in the NICU, evaluate factors influencing noise and light levels, and determine whether exposures meet recommendations from the American Academy of Pediatrics. Sound and light were measured inside the beds of extremely low birth weight newborns (n = 22) from birth to discharge. Measurements were recorded for 20 consecutive hours weekly from birth until 36 weeks' postmenstrual age, biweekly until 40 weeks, and every 4 weeks thereafter. Clinical variables including bed type and method of respiratory support were recorded at each session. Age-related changes in respiratory support and bed type explained the weekly increase of 0.22 dB in sound level and 3.67 lux in light level. Old incubators were the noisiest bed types, and new incubators were the quietest. Light levels were significantly higher in open beds than in incubators. The variations in noise and light levels over time were greatest for open beds. Noise and light levels were much less affected by respiratory support in incubators compared with open beds. A typical extremely low birth weight neonate was exposed to noise levels averaging 56.44 dB(A) and light levels averaging 70.56 lux during their stay from 26 to 42 weeks' postmenstrual age in the NICU. Noise levels were rarely within American Academy of Pediatrics recommendations (5.51% of the time), whereas light levels almost always met recommendations (99.37% of the time). Bed type and respiratory support explained differences in noise and light levels that extremely low birth weight newborns experience during their hospital stay. Noise levels exceeded recommendations, although evidence supporting those recommendations is lacking. Well-designed intervention studies are needed to determine the effects of noise reduction on the development of extremely low birth weight newborns.

Modeling jointly low, moderate, and heavy rainfall intensities without a threshold selection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Naveau, Philippe; Huser, Raphael; Ribereau, Pierre; Hannart, Alexis

2016-04-01

In statistics, extreme events are often defined as excesses above a given large threshold. This definition allows hydrologists and flood planners to apply Extreme-Value Theory (EVT) to their time series of interest. Even in the stationary univariate context, this approach has at least two main drawbacks. First, working with excesses implies that a lot of observations (those below the chosen threshold) are completely disregarded. The range of precipitation is artificially shopped down into two pieces, namely large intensities and the rest, which necessarily imposes different statistical models for each piece. Second, this strategy raises a nontrivial and very practical difficultly: how to choose the optimal threshold which correctly discriminates between low and heavy rainfall intensities. To address these issues, we propose a statistical model in which EVT results apply not only to heavy, but also to low precipitation amounts (zeros excluded). Our model is in compliance with EVT on both ends of the spectrum and allows a smooth transition between the two tails, while keeping a low number of parameters. In terms of inference, we have implemented and tested two classical methods of estimation: likelihood maximization and probability weighed moments. Last but not least, there is no need to choose a threshold to define low and high excesses. The performance and flexibility of this approach are illustrated on simulated and hourly precipitation recorded in Lyon, France.

Observational constraints on black hole accretion disks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liang, Edison P.

1994-01-01

We review the empirical constraints on accretion disk models of stellar-mass black holes based on recent multiwavelength observational results. In addition to time-averaged emission spectra, the time evolutions of the intensity and spectrum provide critical information about the structure, stability, and dynamics of the disk. Using the basic thermal Keplerian disk paradigm, we consider in particular generalizations of the standard optically thin disk models needed to accommodate the extremely rich variety of dynamical phenomena exhibited by black hole candidates ranging from flares of electron-positron annihilations and quasiperiodic oscillations in the X-ray intensity to X-ray novae activity. These in turn provide probes of the disk structure and global geometry. The goal is to construct a single unified framework to interpret a large variety of black hole phenomena. This paper will concentrate on the interface between basic theory and observational data modeling.

XUV generation from the interaction of pico- and nanosecond laser pulses with nanostructured targets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barte, Ellie Floyd; Lokasani, Ragava; Proska, Jan; Stolcova, Lucie; Maguire, Oisin; Kos, Domagoj; Sheridan, Paul; O'Reilly, Fergal; Sokell, Emma; McCormack, Tom; O'Sullivan, Gerry; Dunne, Padraig; Limpouch, Jiri

2017-05-01

Laser-produced plasmas are intense sources of XUV radiation that can be suitable for different applications such as extreme ultraviolet lithography, beyond extreme ultraviolet lithography and water window imaging. In particular, much work has focused on the use of tin plasmas for extreme ultraviolet lithography at 13.5 nm. We have investigated the spectral behavior of the laser produced plasmas formed on closely packed polystyrene microspheres and porous alumina targets covered by a thin tin layer in the spectral region from 2.5 to 16 nm. Nd:YAG lasers delivering pulses of 170 ps (Ekspla SL312P )and 7 ns (Continuum Surelite) duration were focused onto the nanostructured targets coated with tin. The intensity dependence of the recorded spectra was studied; the conversion efficiency (CE) of laser energy into the emission in the 13.5 nm spectral region was estimated. We have observed an increase in CE using high intensity 170 ps Nd:YAG laser pulses as compared with a 7 ns pulse.

Synthetic generation of spatially high resolution extreme rainfall in Japan using Monte Carlo simulation with AMeDAS analyzed rainfall data sets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haruki, W.; Iseri, Y.; Takegawa, S.; Sasaki, O.; Yoshikawa, S.; Kanae, S.

2016-12-01

Natural disasters caused by heavy rainfall occur every year in Japan. Effective countermeasures against such events are important. In 2015, a catastrophic flood occurred in Kinu river basin, which locates in the northern part of Kanto region. The remarkable feature of this flood event was not only in the intensity of rainfall but also in the spatial characteristics of heavy rainfall area. The flood was caused by continuous overlapping of heavy rainfall area over the Kinu river basin, suggesting consideration of spatial extent is quite important to assess impacts of heavy rainfall events. However, the spatial extent of heavy rainfall events cannot be properly measured through rainfall measurement by rain gauges at observation points. On the other hand, rainfall measurements by radar observations provide spatially and temporarily high resolution rainfall data which would be useful to catch the characteristics of heavy rainfall events. For long term effective countermeasure, extreme heavy rainfall scenario considering rainfall area and distribution is required. In this study, a new method for generating extreme heavy rainfall events using Monte Carlo Simulation has been developed in order to produce extreme heavy rainfall scenario. This study used AMeDAS analyzed precipitation data which is high resolution grid precipitation data made by Japan Meteorological Agency. Depth area duration (DAD) analysis has been conducted to extract extreme rainfall events in the past, considering time and spatial scale. In the Monte Carlo Simulation, extreme rainfall event is generated based on events extracted by DAD analysis. Extreme heavy rainfall events are generated in specific region in Japan and the types of generated extreme heavy rainfall events can be changed by varying the parameter. For application of this method, we focused on Kanto region in Japan. As a result, 3000 years rainfall data are generated. 100 -year probable rainfall and return period of flood in Kinu River Basin (2015) are obtained using generated data. We compared 100-year probable rainfall calculated by this method with other traditional method. New developed method enables us to generate extreme rainfall events considering time and spatial scale and produce extreme rainfall scenario.

Assessing changes in extreme convective precipitation from a damage perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schroeer, K.; Tye, M. R.

2016-12-01

Projected increases in high-intensity short-duration convective precipitation are expected even in regions that are likely to become more arid. Such high intensity precipitation events can trigger hazardous flash floods, debris flows and landslides that put people and local assets at risk. However, the assessment of local scale precipitation extremes is hampered by its high spatial and temporal variability. In addition to which, not only are extreme events rare, but such small scale events are likely to be underreported where they don't coincide with the observation network. Rather than focus solely on the convective precipitation, understanding the characteristics of these extremes which drive damage may be more effective to assess future risks. Two sources of data are used in this study. First, sub-daily precipitation observations over the Southern Alps enable an examination of seasonal and regional patterns in high-intensity convective precipitation and their relationship with weather types. Secondly, reports of private loss and damage on a household scale are used to identify which events are most damaging, or what conditions potentially enhance the vulnerability to these extremes.This study explores the potential added value from including recorded loss and damage data to understand the risks from summertime convective precipitation events. By relating precipitation generating weather types to the severity of damage we hope to develop a mechanism to assess future risks. A further benefit would be to identify from damage reports the likely occurrence of precipitation extremes where no direct observations are available and use this information to validate remotely sensed observations.

On the duration and intensity of cumulative advantage competitions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, Bo; Sun, Liyuan; Figueiredo, Daniel R.; Ribeiro, Bruno; Towsley, Don

2015-11-01

Network growth can be framed as a competition for edges among nodes in the network. As with various other social and physical systems, skill (fitness) and luck (random chance) act as fundamental forces driving competition dynamics. In the context of networks, cumulative advantage (CA)—the rich-get-richer effect—is seen as a driving principle governing the edge accumulation process. However, competitions coupled with CA exhibit non-trivial behavior and little is formally known about duration and intensity of CA competitions. By isolating two nodes in an ideal CA competition, we provide a mathematical understanding of how CA exacerbates the role of luck in detriment of skill. We show, for instance, that when nodes start with few edges, an early stroke of luck can place the less skilled in the lead for an extremely long period of time, a phenomenon we call ‘struggle of the fittest’. We prove that duration of a simple skill and luck competition model exhibit power-law tails when CA is present, regardless of skill difference, which is in sharp contrast to the exponential tails when fitness is distinct but CA is absent. We also prove that competition intensity is always upper bounded by an exponential tail, irrespective of CA and skills. Thus, CA competitions can be extremely long (infinite mean, depending on fitness ratio) but almost never very intense. The theoretical results are corroborated by extensive numerical simulations. Our findings have important implications to competitions not only among nodes in networks but also in contexts that leverage socio-physical models embodying CA competitions.

Single-wavelength functional photoacoustic microscopy in biological tissue.

PubMed

Danielli, Amos; Favazza, Christopher P; Maslov, Konstantin; Wang, Lihong V

2011-03-01

Recently, we developed a reflection-mode relaxation photoacoustic microscope, based on saturation intensity, to measure picosecond relaxation times using a nanosecond laser. Here, using the different relaxation times of oxygenated and deoxygenated hemoglobin molecules, both possessing extremely low fluorescence quantum yields, the oxygen saturation was quantified in vivo with single-wavelength photoacoustic microscopy. All previous functional photoacoustic microscopy measurements required imaging with multiple-laser-wavelength measurements to quantify oxygen saturation. Eliminating the need for multiwavelength measurements removes the influence of spectral properties on oxygenation calculations and improves the portability and cost-effectiveness of functional or molecular photoacoustic microscopy.

Single-wavelength functional photoacoustic microscopy in biological tissue

PubMed Central

Danielli, Amos; Favazza, Christopher P.; Maslov, Konstantin; Wang, Lihong V.

2011-01-01

Recently, we developed a reflection-mode relaxation photoacoustic microscope, based on saturation intensity, to measure picosecond relaxation times using a nanosecond laser. Here, using the different relaxation times of oxygenated and deoxygenated hemoglobin molecules, both possessing extremely low fluorescence quantum yields, the oxygen saturation was quantified in vivo with single-wavelength photoacoustic microscopy. All previous functional photoacoustic microscopy measurements required imaging with multiple laser-wavelength measurements to quantify oxygen saturation. Eliminating the need for multi-wavelength measurements removes the influence of spectral properties on oxygenation calculations and improves the portability and cost-effectiveness of functional or molecular photoacoustic microscopy. PMID:21368977

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, Yuan; Ma, Po-Lun; Jiang, Jonathan H.

The attribution of the widely observed shifted precipitation extremes to different forcing agents represents a critical issue for understanding of changes in the hydrological cycle. To compare aerosol and greenhouse-gas effects on the historical trends of precipitation intensity, we performed AMIP-style NCAR/DOE CAM5 model simulations from 1950-2005 with and without anthropogenic aerosol forcings. Precipitation rates at every time step in CAM5 are used to construct precipitation probability distribution functions. By contrasting the two sets of experiments, we found that the global warming induced by the accumulating greenhouse gases is responsible for the changes in precipitation intensity at the global scale.more » However, regionally over the Eastern China, the drastic increase in anthropogenic aerosols primarily accounts for the observed light precipitation suppression since the 1950s. Compared with aerosol radiative effects, aerosol microphysical effect has a predominant role in determining the historical trends of precipitation intensity in Eastern China.« less

Causing Factors for Extreme Precipitation in the Western Saudi-Arabian Peninsula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alharbi, M. M.; Leckebusch, G. C.

2015-12-01

In the western coast of Saudi Arabia the climate is in general semi-arid but extreme precipitation events occur on a regular basis: e.g., on 26th November 2009, when 122 people were killed and 350 reported missing in Jeddah following more than 90mm in just four hours. Our investigation will a) analyse major drivers of the generation of extremes and b) investigate major responsible modes of variability for the occurrence of extremes. Firstly, we present a systematic analysis of station based observations of the most relevant extreme events (1985-2013) for 5 stations (Gizan, Makkah, Jeddah, Yenbo and Wejh). Secondly, we investigate the responsible mechanism on the synoptic to large-scale leading to the generation of extremes and will analyse factors for the time variability of extreme event occurrence. Extreme events for each station are identified in the wet season (Nov-Jan): 122 events show intensity above the respective 90th percentile. The most extreme events are systematically investigated with respect to the responsible forcing conditions which we can identify as: The influence of the Soudan Low, active Red-Sea-Trough situations established via interactions with mid-latitude tropospheric wave activity, low pressure systems over the Mediterranean, the influence of the North Africa High, the Arabian Anticyclone and the influence of the Indian monsoon trough. We investigate the role of dynamical forcing factors like the STJ and the upper-troposphere geopotential conditions and the relation to smaller local low-pressure systems. By means of an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis based on MSLP we investigate the possibility to objectively quantify the influence of existing major variability modes and their role for the generation of extreme precipitation events.

[Antitumor effect of low-intensity extremely high-frequency electromagnetic radiation on a model of solid Ehrlich carcinoma].

PubMed

Gapeev, A B; Shved, D M; Mikhaĭlik, E N; Korystov, Iu N; Levitman, M Kh; Shaposhnikova, V V; Sadovnikov, V B; Alekhin, A I; Goncharov, N G; Chemeris, N K

2009-01-01

The influence of different exposure regimes of low-intensity extremely high-frequency electromagnetic radiation on the growth rate of solid Ehrlich carcinoma in mice has been studied. It was shown that, at an optimum repetition factor of exposure (20 min daily for five consecutive days after the tumor inoculation), there is a clearly pronounced frequency dependence of the antitumor effect. The analysis of experimental data indicates that the mechanisms of antitumor effects of the radiation may be related to the modification of the immune status of the organism. The results obtained show that extremely high-frequency electromagnetic radiation at a proper selection of exposure regimes can result in distinct and stable antitumor effects.

High Resolution Global Climate Modeling with GEOS-5: Intense Precipitation, Convection and Tropical Cyclones on Seasonal Time-Scales.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Putnam, WilliamM.

2011-01-01

In 2008 the World Modeling Summit for Climate Prediction concluded that "climate modeling will need-and is ready-to move to fundamentally new high-resolution approaches to capitalize on the seamlessness of the weather-climate continuum." Following from this, experimentation with very high-resolution global climate modeling has gained enhanced priority within many modeling groups and agencies. The NASA Goddard Earth Observing System model (GEOS-5) has been enhanced to provide a capability for the execution at the finest horizontal resolutions POS,SIOle with a global climate model today. Using this high-resolution, non-hydrostatic version of GEOS-5, we have developed a unique capability to explore the intersection of weather and climate within a seamless prediction system. Week-long weather experiments, to mUltiyear climate simulations at global resolutions ranging from 3.5- to 14-km have demonstrated the predictability of extreme events including severe storms along frontal systems, extra-tropical storms, and tropical cyclones. The primary benefits of high resolution global models will likely be in the tropics, with better predictions of the genesis stages of tropical cyclones and of the internal structure of their mature stages. Using satellite data we assess the accuracy of GEOS-5 in representing extreme weather phenomena, and their interaction within the global climate on seasonal time-scales. The impacts of convective parameterization and the frequency of coupling between the moist physics and dynamics are explored in terms of precipitation intensity and the representation of deep convection. We will also describe the seasonal variability of global tropical cyclone activity within a global climate model capable of representing the most intense category 5 hurricanes.

Extreme storms, sea level rise, and coastal change: implications for infrastructure reliability in the Gulf of Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anarde, K.; Kameshwar, S.; Irza, N.; Lorenzo-Trueba, J.; Nittrouer, J. A.; Padgett, J.; Bedient, P. B.

2016-12-01

Predicting coastal infrastructure reliability during hurricane events is important for risk-based design and disaster planning, such as delineating viable emergency response routes. Previous research has focused on either infrastructure vulnerability to coastal flooding or the impact of changing sea level and landforms on surge dynamics. Here we investigate the combined impact of sea level, morphology, and coastal flooding on the reliability of highway bridges - the only access points between barrier islands and mainland communities - during future extreme storms. We forward model coastal flooding for static projections of geomorphic change using ADCIRC+SWAN. First-order parameters that are adjusted include sea level and elevation. These are varied for each storm simulation to evaluate relative impact on the reliability of bridges surrounding Freeport, TX. Simulated storms include both synthetic and historical events, which are classified by intensity using the storm's integrated kinetic energy, a metric for surge generation potential. Reliability is estimated through probability of failure - given wave and surge loads - and time inundated. Findings include that: 1) bridge reliability scales inversely with surge height, and 2) sea level rise reduces bridge reliability due to a monotonic increase in surge height. The impact of a shifting landscape on bridge reliability is more complex: barrier island rollback can increase or decrease inundation times for storms of different intensity due to changes in wind-setup and back-barrier bay interactions. Initial storm surge readily inundates the coastal landscape during large intensity storms, however the draining of inland bays following storm passage is significantly impeded by the barrier. From a coastal engineering standpoint, we determine that to protect critical infrastructure, efforts now implemented that nourish low-lying barriers may be enhanced by also armoring back-bay coastlines and elevating bridge approach ramps.

Long Term Decline in Eastern US Winter Temperature Extremes.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trenary, L. L.; DelSole, T. M.; Tippett, M. K.; Doty, B.

2016-12-01

States along the US eastern seaboard have experienced successively harsh winter conditions in recent years. This has prompted speculation that climate change is leading to more extreme winter conditions. In this study we quantify changes in the observed winter extremes over the period 1950-2015, by examining year-to-year differences in intensity, frequency and likelihood of daily cold temperature extremes in the north, mid, and south Atlantic states along the US east coast. Analyzing station data for these three regions, we find that while the north and mid-Atlantic regions experienced record-breaking cold temperatures in 2015, there is no long-term increase in the intensity of cold extremes anywhere along the eastern seaboard. Likewise, despite the record number of cold days in these two regions during 2014 and 2015, there is no systematic increase in the frequency of cold extremes. To determine whether the observed changes are natural or human-forced, we repeat our analysis using a suite of climate simulations, with and without external forcing. Generally, model simulations suggest that human-induced forcing does not significantly influence the range of daily winter temperature. Combining this result with the fact that the observed winter temperatures are becoming warmer and less variable, we conclude that the recent intensification of eastern US cold extremes is only temporary.

Can animal habitat use patterns influence their vulnerability to extreme climate events? An estuarine sportfish case study.

PubMed

Boucek, Ross E; Heithaus, Michael R; Santos, Rolando; Stevens, Philip; Rehage, Jennifer S

2017-10-01

Global climate forecasts predict changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme climate events (ECEs). The capacity for specific habitat patches within a landscape to modulate stressors from extreme climate events, and animal distribution throughout habitat matrices during events, could influence the degree of population level effects following the passage of ECEs. Here, we ask (i) does the intensity of stressors of an ECE vary across a landscape? And (ii) Do habitat use patterns of a mobile species influence their vulnerability to ECEs? Specifically, we measured how extreme cold spells might interact with temporal variability in habitat use to affect populations of a tropical, estuarine-dependent large-bodied fish Common Snook, within Everglades National Park estuaries (FL US). We examined temperature variation across the estuary during cold disturbances with different degrees of severity, including an extreme cold spell. Second, we quantified Snook distribution patterns when the passage of ECEs is most likely to occur from 2012 to 2016 using passive acoustic tracking. Our results revealed spatial heterogeneity in the intensity of temperature declines during cold disturbances, with some habitats being consistently 3-5°C colder than others. Surprisingly, Snook distributions during periods of greatest risk to experience an extreme cold event varied among years. During the winters of 2013-2014 and 2014-2015 a greater proportion of Snook occurred in the colder habitats, while the winters of 2012-2013 and 2015-2016 featured more Snook observed in the warmest habitats. This study shows that Snook habitat use patterns could influence vulnerability to extreme cold events, however, whether Snook habitat use increases or decreases their vulnerability to disturbance depends on the year, creating temporally dynamic vulnerability. Faunal global change research should address the spatially explicit nature of extreme climate events and animal habitat use patterns to identify potential mechanisms that may influence population effects following these disturbances. Published 2017. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Early and late hot extremes, and elongation of the warm period over Greece

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Founda, Dimitra; Giannakopoulos, Christos; Pierros, Fragiskos

2017-04-01

The eastern Mediterranean has been assigned as one of the most responsive areas in climate change, mainly with respect to the occurrence of warmer and drier conditions. In Greece in particular, observations suggest prominent increases in the summer air temperature which in some areas amount to approximately 1 0C/decade since the mid 1970s, while Regional Climate Models simulate further increases in the near and distant future. These changes are coupled with simultaneous increase in the occurrence of hot extremes. In addition to changes in the frequency and intensity of hot extrems, timing of occurrence is also of special interest. Early heat waves in particular, have been found to increase thermal risk in humans. The study explores variations and trends in timing, namely the date of first and last occurrence of hot extremes within the year, and subsequently the hot extremes period (season), defined as the time interval (number of days) between first and last hot extremes occurrence, over Greece. A case study for the area of Athens covering a longer than 100-years period (1897-2015) was conducted first, which will be extended to other Greek areas. Several heat related climatic indices were used, based either on predefined temperature thresholds such as 'tropical days' (daily maximum air temperature, Tmax >30 0C), 'tropical nights' (daily minimum air temperature, Tmin >20 0C), 'hot days' (Tmax >35 0C), or on local climate statistics such as days with Tmax (or Tmin) > 95th percentile. The analysis revealed significant changes in the period of hot extremes and specifically elongation of the period, attributed to early rather than late hot extremes occurrence. An earlier shift of the first tropical day and the first tropical night occurrence by approximately 2 days/decade was found over the study period. An overall elongation of the 'hot days' season by 2.6 days/decade was also observed, which is more prominent since the early 1980s. Over the last three decades, earlier shift of occurrence of days with Tmax > 37 0C and Tmin > 26 0C (corresponding to the 95th percentiles of summer Tmax and Tmin respectively for Athens) was striking, amounting to 8 days/decade. Our findings for the hot extremes period will be used to validate respective simulations of Regional Climate Models downscaled over the areas of interest.

Intra-seasonal risk of agriculturally-relevant weather extremes in West African Sudan Savanna

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boansi, David; Tambo, Justice A.; Müller, Marc

2018-01-01

Using household survey data and historical daily climate data for 29 communities across Upper East Ghana and Southwest Burkina Faso, we document climatic conditions deemed major threat to farming in the West African Sudan Savanna and assess risks posed by such conditions over the period 1997-2014. Based on farmers' perception, it is found that drought, low rainfall, intense precipitation, flooding, erratic rainfall pattern, extremely high temperatures, delayed rains, and early cessation of rains are the major threats farmers face. Using first-order Markov chain model and relevant indices for monitoring weather extremes, it is discovered that climatic risk is a general inherent attribute of the rainy season in the study area. Due to recent changes in onset of rains and length of the rainy season, some farmers have either resorted to early planting of drought-hardy crops, late planting of drought-sensitive crops, or spreading of planting across the first 3 months of the season to moderate harm. Each of these planting decisions however has some risk implications. The months of May, June, and October are found to be more susceptible to relatively longer duration of dry and hot spells, while July, August, and September are found to be more susceptible to intense precipitation and flooding. To moderate harm from anticipated weather extremes, farmers need to adjust their cropping calendar, adopt appropriate crop varieties, and implement soil and water management practices. For policy makers and other stakeholders, we recommend the supply of timely and accurate weather forecasts to guide farmers in their seasonal cropping decisions and investment in/installation of low cost irrigation facilities to enhance the practice of supplemental irrigation.

Flood Risk in the Danube basin under climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schröter, Kai; Wortmann, Michel; del Rocio Rivas Lopez, Maria; Liersch, Stefan; Viet Nguyen, Dung; Hardwick, Stephen; Hattermann, Fred

2017-04-01

The projected increase in temperature is expected to intensify the hydrological cycle, and thus more intense precipitation is likely to increase hydro-meteorological extremes and flood hazard. However to assess the future dynamics of hazard and impact induced by these changes it is necessary to consider extreme events and to take a spatially differentiated perspective. The Future Danube Model is a multi-hazard and risk model suite for the Danube region which has been developed in the OASIS project. The model comprises modules for estimating potential perils from heavy precipitation, heat-waves, floods, droughts, and damage risk considering hydro-climatic extremes under current and climate change conditions. Web-based open Geographic Information Systems (GIS) technology allows customers to graphically analyze and overlay perils and other spatial information such as population density or assets exposed. The Future Danube Model combines modules for weather generation, hydrological and hydrodynamic processes, and supports risk assessment and adaptation planning support. This contribution analyses changes in flood hazard in the Danube basin and in flood risk for the German part of the Danube basin. As climate change input, different regionalized climate ensemble runs of the newest IPCC generation are used, the so-called Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). They are delivered by the CORDEX initiative (Coordinated Downscaling Experiments). The CORDEX data sample is extended using the statistical weather generator (IMAGE) in order to also consider extreme events. Two time slices are considered: near future 2020-2049 and far future 2050-2079. This data provides the input for the hydrological, hydraulic and flood loss model chain. Results for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 indicate an increase in intensity and frequency of peak discharges and thus in flood hazard for many parts of the Danube basin.

Changes in a suite of indicators of extreme temperature and precipitation under 1.5 and 2 degrees warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aerenson, Travis; Tebaldi, Claudia; Sanderson, Ben; Lamarque, Jean-François

2018-03-01

Following the 2015 Paris agreement, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change was tasked with assessing climate change impacts and mitigation options for a world that limits warming to 1.5 °C in a special report. To aid the scientific assessment process three low-warming ensembles were generated over the 21st century based on the Paris targets using NCAR-DOE community model, CESM1-CAM5. This study used those simulation results and computed ten extreme climate indices, from definitions created by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices, to determine if the three different scenarios cause different intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation or temperature over the 21st century. After computing the indices, statistical tests were used to determine if significant changes affect their characteristics. It was found that at the grid point level significant changes emerge in all scenarios, for nearly all indices. The temperature indices show widespread significant change, while the behavior of precipitation indices reflects the larger role that internal variability plays, even by the end of the century. Nonetheless differences can be assessed, in substantial measure for many of these indices: changes in nearly all indices have a strong correlation to global mean temperature, so that scenarios and times with greater temperature change experience greater index changes for many regions. This is particularly true of the temperature-related indices, but can be assessed for some regions also for the indices related to precipitation intensity. These results thus show that even for scenarios that are separated by only half of a degree in global average temperature, the statistics of extremes are significantly different.

Generation of intense high-order vortex harmonics.

PubMed

Zhang, Xiaomei; Shen, Baifei; Shi, Yin; Wang, Xiaofeng; Zhang, Lingang; Wang, Wenpeng; Xu, Jiancai; Yi, Longqiong; Xu, Zhizhan

2015-05-01

This Letter presents for the first time a scheme to generate intense high-order optical vortices that carry orbital angular momentum in the extreme ultraviolet region based on relativistic harmonics from the surface of a solid target. In the three-dimensional particle-in-cell simulation, the high-order harmonics of the high-order vortex mode is generated in both reflected and transmitted light beams when a linearly polarized Laguerre-Gaussian laser pulse impinges on a solid foil. The azimuthal mode of the harmonics scales with its order. The intensity of the high-order vortex harmonics is close to the relativistic region, with the pulse duration down to attosecond scale. The obtained intense vortex beam possesses the combined properties of fine transversal structure due to the high-order mode and the fine longitudinal structure due to the short wavelength of the high-order harmonics. In addition to the application in high-resolution detection in both spatial and temporal scales, it also presents new opportunities in the intense vortex required fields, such as the inner shell ionization process and high energy twisted photons generation by Thomson scattering of such an intense vortex beam off relativistic electrons.

Impacts of Extreme Events on Human Health. Chapter 4

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bell, Jesse E.; Herring, Stephanie C.; Jantarasami, Lesley; Adrianopoli, Carl; Benedict, Kaitlin; Conlon, Kathryn; Escobar, Vanessa; Hess, Jeremy; Luvall, Jeffrey; Garcia-Pando, Carlos Perez;

Extreme High-Temperature Events Over East Asia in 1.5°C and 2°C Warmer Futures: Analysis of NCAR CESM Low-Warming Experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Donghuan; Zhou, Tianjun; Zou, Liwei; Zhang, Wenxia; Zhang, Lixia

2018-02-01

Extreme high-temperature events have large socioeconomic and human health impacts. East Asia (EA) is a populous region, and it is crucial to assess the changes in extreme high-temperature events in this region under different climate change scenarios. The Community Earth System Model low-warming experiment data were applied to investigate the changes in the mean and extreme high temperatures in EA under 1.5°C and 2°C warming conditions above preindustrial levels. The results show that the magnitude of warming in EA is approximately 0.2°C higher than the global mean. Most populous subregions, including eastern China, the Korean Peninsula, and Japan, will see more intense, more frequent, and longer-lasting extreme temperature events under 1.5°C and 2°C warming. The 0.5°C lower warming will help avoid 35%-46% of the increases in extreme high-temperature events in terms of intensity, frequency, and duration in EA with maximal avoidance values (37%-49%) occurring in Mongolia. Thus, it is beneficial for EA to limit the warming target to 1.5°C rather than 2°C.

USGS 1-min Dst index

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gannon, J.L.; Love, J.J.

2011-01-01

We produce a 1-min time resolution storm-time disturbance index, the USGS Dst, called Dst8507-4SM. This index is based on minute resolution horizontal magnetic field intensity from low-latitude observatories in Honolulu, Kakioka, San Juan and Hermanus, for the years 1985-2007. The method used to produce the index uses a combination of time- and frequency-domain techniques, which more clearly identifies and excises solar-quiet variation from the horizontal intensity time series of an individual station than the strictly time-domain method used in the Kyoto Dst index. The USGS 1-min Dst is compared against the Kyoto Dst, Kyoto Sym-H, and the USGS 1-h Dst (Dst5807-4SH). In a time series comparison, Sym-H is found to produce more extreme values during both sudden impulses and main phase maximum deviation, possibly due to the latitude of its contributing observatories. Both Kyoto indices are shown to have a peak in their distributions below zero, while the USGS indices have a peak near zero. The USGS 1-min Dst is shown to have the higher time resolution benefits of Sym-H, while using the more typical low-latitude observatories of Kyoto Dst. ?? 2010.

Identifying Patterns in Extreme Precipitation Risk and the Related Impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schroeer, K.; Tye, M. R.

2017-12-01

Extreme precipitation can harm human life and assets through flooding, hail, landslides, or debris flows. Flood risk assessments typically concentrate on river or mountain torrent channels, using water depth, flow velocity, and/or sediment deposition to quantify the risk. In addition, extreme events with high recurrence intervals are often the main focus. However, damages from short-term and localized convective showers often occur away from watercourses. Also, damages from more frequent small scale extremes, although usually less disastrous, can accumulate to considerable financial burdens. Extreme convective precipitation is expected to intensify in a warmer climate, and vulnerability patterns might change in tandem with changes in the character of precipitation and flood types. This has consequences for adaptation planners who want to establish effective protection measures and reduce the cost from natural hazards. Here we merge hydrological and exposure data to identify patterns of risk under varying synoptic conditions. Exposure is calculated from a database of 76k damage claims reported to the national disaster fund in 480 municipalities in south eastern Austria from 1990-2015. Hydrological data comprise sub-daily precipitation (59 gauges) and streamflow (62 gauges) observations. We use synoptic circulation types to identify typical precipitation patterns. They indicate the character of precipitation even if a gauge is not in close proximity, facilitating potential future research with regional climate model data. Results show that more claims are reported under synoptic conditions favouring convective precipitation (on average 1.5-3 times more than on other days). For agrarian municipalities, convective precipitation damages are among the costliest after long low-intensity precipitation events. In contrast, Alpine communities are particularly vulnerable to convective high-intensity rainfall. In addition to possible observational error, uncertainty is present in damage reporting errors, claims from private insurers and adaptation effects after damaging events. As for the latter, preliminary results indicate that investments regularly occur after big events, which may skew subsequent damage claims. Their effectiveness, though, needs to be analyzed in future research.

The potential impacts of climate variability and change on health impacts of extreme weather events in the United States.

PubMed Central

Greenough, G; McGeehin, M; Bernard, S M; Trtanj, J; Riad, J; Engelberg, D

2001-01-01

Extreme weather events such as precipitation extremes and severe storms cause hundreds of deaths and injuries annually in the United States. Climate change may alter the frequency, timing, intensity, and duration of these events. Increases in heavy precipitation have occurred over the past century. Future climate scenarios show likely increases in the frequency of extreme precipitation events, including precipitation during hurricanes, raising the risk of floods. Frequencies of tornadoes and hurricanes cannot reliably be projected. Injury and death are the direct health impacts most often associated with natural disasters. Secondary effects, mediated by changes in ecologic systems and public health infrastructure, also occur. The health impacts of extreme weather events hinge on the vulnerabilities and recovery capacities of the natural environment and the local population. Relevant variables include building codes, warning systems, disaster policies, evacuation plans, and relief efforts. There are many federal, state, and local government agencies and nongovernmental organizations involved in planning for and responding to natural disasters in the United States. Future research on health impacts of extreme weather events should focus on improving climate models to project any trends in regional extreme events and as a result improve public health preparedness and mitigation. Epidemiologic studies of health effects beyond the direct impacts of disaster will provide a more accurate measure of the full health impacts and will assist in planning and resource allocation. PMID:11359686

A global analysis of the asymmetric effect of ENSO on extreme precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Xun; Renard, Benjamin; Thyer, Mark; Westra, Seth; Lang, Michel

2015-11-01

The global and regional influence of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon on extreme precipitation was analyzed using a global database comprising over 7000 high quality observation sites. To better quantify possible changes in relatively rare design-relevant precipitation quantiles (e.g. the 1 in 10 year event), a Bayesian regional extreme value model was used, which employed the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) - a measure of ENSO - as a covariate. Regions found to be influenced by ENSO include parts of North and South America, southern and eastern Asia, South Africa, Australia and Europe. The season experiencing the greatest ENSO effect varies regionally, but in most of the ENSO-affected regions the strongest effect happens in boreal winter, during which time the 10-year precipitation for |SOI| = 20 (corresponding to either a strong El Niño or La Niña episode) can be up to 50% higher or lower than for SOI = 0 (a neutral phase). Importantly, the effect of ENSO on extreme precipitation is asymmetric, with most parts of the world experiencing a significant effect only for a single ENSO phase. This finding has important implications on the current understanding of how ENSO influences extreme precipitation, and will enable a more rigorous theoretical foundation for providing quantitative extreme precipitation intensity predictions at seasonal timescales. We anticipate that incorporating asymmetric impacts of ENSO on extreme precipitation will help lead to better-informed climate-adaptive design of flood-sensitive infrastructure.

High-Resolution Dynamical Downscaling Ensemble Projections of Future Extreme Temperature Distributions for the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zobel, Zachary; Wang, Jiali; Wuebbles, Donald J.; Kotamarthi, V. Rao

2017-12-01

The aim of this study is to examine projections of extreme temperatures over the continental United States (CONUS) for the 21st century using an ensemble of high spatial resolution dynamically downscaled model simulations with different boundary conditions. The downscaling uses the Weather Research and Forecast model at a spatial resolution of 12 km along with outputs from three different Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 global climate models that provide boundary conditions under two different future greenhouse gas (GHG) concentration trajectories. The results from two decadal-length time slices (2045-2054 and 2085-2094) are compared with a historical decade (1995-2004). Probability density functions of daily maximum/minimum temperatures are analyzed over seven climatologically cohesive regions of the CONUS. The impacts of different boundary conditions as well as future GHG concentrations on extreme events such as heat waves and days with temperature higher than 95°F are also investigated. The results show that the intensity of extreme warm temperature in future summer is significantly increased, while the frequency of extreme cold temperature in future winter decreases. The distribution of summer daily maximum temperature experiences a significant warm-side shift and increased variability, while the distribution of winter daily minimum temperature is projected to have a less significant warm-side shift with decreased variability. Using "business-as-usual" scenario, 5-day heat waves are projected to occur at least 5-10 times per year in most CONUS and ≥95°F days will increase by 1-2 months by the end of the century.

Looking for light in the din: An examination of the circadian-disrupting properties of a medical intensive care unit.

PubMed

Danielson, Samantha J; Rappaport, Charles A; Loher, Michael K; Gehlbach, Brian K

2018-06-01

Critically ill patients exhibit profound disturbances of circadian rhythmicity, most commonly in the form of a phase delay. We investigated the specific zeitgeber properties of a medical intensive care unit to develop a model that explained these abnormalities. Prospective, observational study conducted during 2013-2014. Twenty-four-hour ambient light (lux, 672 hours) and sound pressure levels (dBA, 504 hours) were measured in patient rooms. Patients and families were surveyed regarding their perceptions of the environment. University-based adult medical intensive care unit. The timing and intensity of the ambient light-dark cycle and sound environment and the relationship of these measurements to patient/family perceptions. Twenty-four-hour light-dark cycles were extremely weak and phase delayed relative to the solar cycle. Morning light averaged 12.1 (4.8, 37.2) lux, when only 24.9% ± 10.9% of available light was utilised; yet patients and families did not identify low daytime light levels as problematic. Median noise levels were invariably excessive (nighttime 47.9 [45.0, 51.3] dBA) with minimal variation, consistent with the absence of a defined rest period. The intensive care unit functions as a near-constant routine protocol disconnected from solar time. Behavioural interventions to promote entrainment should be supported by objective measurements of light and sound. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Complex Regional Pain Syndrome

MedlinePlus

Complex regional pain syndrome (CRPS) is a chronic pain condition. It causes intense pain, usually in the arms, hands, legs, or feet. ... in skin temperature, color, or texture Intense burning pain Extreme skin sensitivity Swelling and stiffness in affected ...

Influence of land-atmosphere feedbacks on temperature and precipitation extremes in the GLACE-CMIP5 ensemble

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lorenz, Ruth; Argueso, Daniel; Donat, Markus G.; Pitman, Andrew J.; van den Hurk, Bart; Berg, Alexis; Lawrence, David M.; Cheruy, Frederique; Ducharne, Agnes; Hagemann, Stefan; Meier, Arndt; Milly, Paul C.D.; Seneviratne, Sonia I

2016-01-01

We examine how soil moisture variability and trends affect the simulation of temperature and precipitation extremes in six global climate models using the experimental protocol of the Global Land-Atmosphere Coupling Experiment of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (GLACE-CMIP5). This protocol enables separate examinations of the influences of soil moisture variability and trends on the intensity, frequency, and duration of climate extremes by the end of the 21st century under a business-as-usual (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5) emission scenario. Removing soil moisture variability significantly reduces temperature extremes over most continental surfaces, while wet precipitation extremes are enhanced in the tropics. Projected drying trends in soil moisture lead to increases in intensity, frequency, and duration of temperature extremes by the end of the 21st century. Wet precipitation extremes are decreased in the tropics with soil moisture trends in the simulations, while dry extremes are enhanced in some regions, in particular the Mediterranean and Australia. However, the ensemble results mask considerable differences in the soil moisture trends simulated by the six climate models. We find that the large differences between the models in soil moisture trends, which are related to an unknown combination of differences in atmospheric forcing (precipitation, net radiation), flux partitioning at the land surface, and how soil moisture is parameterized, imply considerable uncertainty in future changes in climate extremes.

Relation of physical activity time to incident disability in community dwelling adults with or at risk of knee arthritis: prospective cohort study.

PubMed

Dunlop, Dorothy D; Song, Jing; Semanik, Pamela A; Sharma, Leena; Bathon, Joan M; Eaton, Charles B; Hochberg, Marc C; Jackson, Rebecca D; Kwoh, C Kent; Mysiw, W Jerry; Nevitt, Michael C; Chang, Rowland W

2014-04-29

To investigate whether objectively measured time spent in light intensity physical activity is related to incident disability and to disability progression. Prospective multisite cohort study from September 2008 to December 2012. Baltimore, Maryland; Columbus, Ohio; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania; and Pawtucket, Rhode Island, USA. Disability onset cohort of 1680 community dwelling adults aged 49 years or older with knee osteoarthritis or risk factors for knee osteoarthritis; the disability progression cohort included 1814 adults. Physical activity was measured by accelerometer monitoring. Disability was ascertained from limitations in instrumental and basic activities of daily living at baseline and two years. The primary outcome was incident disability. The secondary outcome was progression of disability defined by a more severe level (no limitations, limitations to instrumental activities only, 1-2 basic activities, or ≥3 basic activities) at two years compared with baseline. Greater time spent in light intensity activities had a significant inverse association with incident disability. Less incident disability and less disability progression were each significantly related to increasing quartile categories of daily time spent in light intensity physical activities (hazard ratios for disability onset 1.00, 0.62, 0.47, and 0.58, P for trend=0.007; hazard ratios for progression 1.00, 0.59, 0.50, and 0.53, P for trend=0.003) with control for socioeconomic factors (age, sex, race/ethnicity, education, income) and health factors (comorbidities, depressive symptoms, obesity, smoking, lower extremity pain and function, and knee assessments: osteoarthritis severity, pain, symptoms, prior injury). This finding was independent of time spent in moderate-vigorous activities. These prospective data showed an association between greater daily time spent in light intensity physical activities and reduced risk of onset and progression of disability in adults with osteoarthritis of the knee or risk factors for knee osteoarthritis. An increase in daily physical activity time may reduce the risk of disability, even if the intensity of that additional activity is not increased.

Changes in Intense Precipitation Events in West Africa and the central U.S. under Global Warming

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cook, Kerry H.; Vizy, Edward

The purpose of the proposed project is to improve our understanding of the physical processes and large-scale connectivity of changes in intense precipitation events (high rainfall rates) under global warming in West Africa and the central U.S., including relationships with low-frequency modes of variability. This is in response to the requested subject area #2 “simulation of climate extremes under a changing climate … to better quantify the frequency, duration, and intensity of extreme events under climate change and elucidate the role of low frequency climate variability in modulating extremes.” We will use a regional climate model and emphasize an understandingmore » of the physical processes that lead to an intensification of rainfall. The project objectives are as follows: 1. Understand the processes responsible for simulated changes in warm-season rainfall intensity and frequency over West Africa and the Central U.S. associated with greenhouse gas-induced global warming 2. Understand the relationship between changes in warm-season rainfall intensity and frequency, which generally occur on regional space scales, and the larger-scale global warming signal by considering modifications of low-frequency modes of variability. 3. Relate changes simulated on regional space scales to global-scale theories of how and why atmospheric moisture levels and rainfall should change as climate warms.« less

MESSENGER Observations of Extreme Loading and Unloading of Mercury's Magnetic Tail

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Slavin, James A.; Anderson, Brian J.; Baker, Daniel N.; Benna, Mehdi; Boardsen, Scott A.; Gloeckler, George; Gold, Robert E.; Ho, George C.; Korth, Haje; Krimigis, Stamatios M.;

X-ray driven reaction front dynamics at calcite-water interfaces

DOE PAGES

Laanait, Nouamane; Callagon, Erika Blanca R.; Zhang, Zhan; ...

2015-09-18

The interface of minerals with aqueous solutions is central to geochemical reactivity, hosting processes that span multiple spatiotemporal scales. Understanding such processes requires spatially and temporally resolved observations, and experimental controls that precisely manipulate the interfacial thermodynamic state. Using the intense radiation fields of a focused synchrotron X-ray beam, we drove dissolution at the calcite-aqueous interface and simultaneously probed the dynamics of the propagating reaction fronts using surface X-ray microscopy. Evolving surface structures are controlled by the time-dependent solution composition as characterized by a kinetic reaction model. At extreme disequilibria, the onset of reaction front instabilities was observed with velocitiesmore » of >30 nanometers per second. As a result, these instabilities are identified as a signature of transport-limited dissolution of calcite under extreme disequilibrium.« less

Extreme enhancements and depletions of relativistic electrons in Earth's radiation belts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Turner, D. L.; Claudepierre, S. G.; O'Brien, T. P., III; Fennell, J. F.; Blake, J. B.; Baker, D. N.; Jaynes, A. N.; Morley, S.; Geoffrey, R.

2015-12-01

Earth's electron radiation belts consist of toroidal zones in near-Earth space characterized by intense levels of relativistic electrons with distinct energy-dependent boundaries. It has been known for decades that the outer electron radiation belt is highly variable, with electron intensities varying by orders of magnitude on timescales ranging from minutes to years. Now, we are gaining much insight into the nature of this extreme variability thanks to the unprecedented number of observatories capable of measuring radiation belt electrons, the most recent of which is NASA's Van Allen Probes mission. In this presentation, we analyze and review several of the most extreme events observed in Earth's outer radiation belt. We begin with very sudden and strong enhancements of the outer radiation belt that can result in several orders of magnitude enhancements of electron intensities up to several MeV that sometimes occur in less than one day. We compare and contrast two of the most extreme cases of sudden and strong enhancements from the Van Allen Probes era, 08-09 October 2012 and 17-18 March 2015, and review evidence of the dominant acceleration mechanism in each event. Sudden enhancements of the radiation belts can also occur from injections by interplanetary shocks impacting the magnetosphere, such as occurred on 24 March 1991. We compare shock characteristics from previous injection events to those from the Van Allen Probes era to investigate why none of the interplanetary shocks since September 2012 have caused MeV electron injections into the slot region and inner radiation belt, which has surprisingly been devoid of measurable quantities of >~1 MeV electrons throughout the Van Allen Probes era. Our last topic concerns loss processes. We discuss drastic loss events, known as "flux dropouts", and present evidence that these loss events can eliminate the vast majority of relativistic electrons in the outer radiation belt on time scales of only a few hours. We finish with cases of prolonged outer belt depletions, such as occurred throughout most of 2009 and in September 2014, and discuss how these can result from flux dropout events combined with a subsequent lack of any source of new relativistic electrons.

Quasi-periodic Fluctuations and Chromospheric Evaporation in a Solar Flare Ribbon Observed by Hinode/EIS, IRIS, and RHESSI

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brosius, Jeffrey W.; Daw, Adrian N.; Inglis, Andrew R.

2016-10-01

The Hinode/Extreme-ultraviolet Imaging Spectrometer (EIS) obtained rapid cadence (11.2 s) EUV stare spectra of an M7.3 flare ribbon in AR 12036 on 2014 April 18. Quasi-periodic (P ≈ 75.6 ± 9.2 s) intensity fluctuations occurred in emission lines of O IV, Mg VI, Mg vii, Si vii, Fe xiv, and Fe xvi during the flare's impulsive rise, and ended when the maximum intensity in Fe xxiii was reached. The profiles of the O IV-Fe xvi lines reveal that they were all redshifted during most of the interval of quasi-periodic intensity fluctuations, while the Fe xxiii profile revealed multiple components including one or two highly blueshifted ones. This indicates that the flare underwent explosive chromospheric evaporation during its impulsive rise. Fluctuations in the relative Doppler velocities were seen, but their amplitudes were too subtle to extract significant quasi-periodicities. RHESSI detected 25-100 keV hard-X-ray sources in the ribbon near the EIS slit's pointing position during the peaks in the EIS intensity fluctuations. The observations are consistent with a series of energy injections into the chromosphere by nonthermal particle beams. Electron densities derived with Fe xiv (4.6 × 1010 cm-3) and Mg vii (7.8 × 109 cm-3) average line intensity ratios during the interval of quasi-periodic intensity fluctuations, combined with the radiative loss function of an optically thin plasma, yield radiative cooling times of 32 s at 2.0 × 106 K, and 46 s at 6.3 × 105 K (about half the quasi-period); assuming Fe xiv's density for Fe xxiii yields a radiative cooling time of 103 s (13 times the quasi-period) at 1.4 × 107 K.

FAST TRACK COMMUNICATION: Inhomogeneous charge redistribution in Xe clusters exposed to an intense extreme ultraviolet free electron laser

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iwayama, H.; Sugishima, A.; Nagaya, K.; Yao, M.; Fukuzawa, H.; Motomura, K.; Liu, X.-J.; Yamada, A.; Wang, C.; Ueda, K.; Saito, N.; Nagasono, M.; Tono, K.; Yabashi, M.; Ishikawa, T.; Ohashi, H.; Kimura, H.; Togashi, T.

2010-08-01

The emission of highly charged ions from Xe clusters exposed to intense extreme ultraviolet laser pulses (λ ~ 52 nm) from the free electron laser in Japan was investigated using ion momentum spectroscopy. With increasing average cluster size, we observed multiply charged ions Xez + up to z = 3. From kinetic energy distributions, we found that multiply charged ions were generated near the cluster surface. Our results suggest that charges are inhomogeneously redistributed in the cluster to lower the total energy stored in the clusters.

Rogue Waves and Extreme Events in Optics - Challenges and Questions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dudley, John; Lacourt, Pierre-Ambroise; Genty, Goery; Dias, Frederic; Akhmediev, Nail

2010-05-01

A central challenge in understanding extreme events in physics is to develop rigorous models linking the complex generation dynamics and the associated statistical behavior. Quantitative studies of extreme phenomena, however, are often hampered in two ways: (i) the intrinsic scarcity of the events under study and (ii) the fact that such events often appear in environments where measurements are difficult. A particular case of interest concerns the infamous oceanic rogue waves that have been associated with many catastrophic maritime disasters. Studying rogue waves under controlled conditions is problematic, and the phenomenon remains a subject of intensive research. On the other hand, there are many qualitative and quantitative links between wave propagation in optics and in hydrodynamics, and it is thus natural to consider to what degree (if any) insights from studying instability phenomena in optics can be applied to other systems. In this context, significant experiments were reported by Solli et al. in late 2007 ["Optical rogue waves," Nature 450, 1054 (2007)], where a wavelength-to-time detection technique allowed the direct characterization of shot-to-shot instabilities in the extreme nonlinear optical spectral broadening process of supercontinuum generation. Specifically, although the process of supercontinuum generation is well-known to exhibit fluctuations in both the time and frequency domains, Solli et al. have shown that these fluctuations contain a small number of statistically-rare "rogue" events associated with a greatly enhanced spectral bandwidth and the generation of localized temporal solitons with greatly increased intensity. Crucially, because these experiments were performed in a regime where modulation instability (MI) plays a key role in the dynamics, an analogy was drawn with hydrodynamic rogue waves, whose origin and dynamics has also been discussed in terms of MI or, as it often referred to in hydrodynamics, the Benjamin-Feir instability. The analogy between the appearance of localized structures in optics and the rogue waves on the ocean's surface is both intriguing and attractive, as it opens up possibilities to explore the extreme value dynamics in a convenient benchtop optical environment. In addition to the proposed links with solitons suggested by Solli et al., other recent studies motivated from an optical context have experimentally demonstrated links with nonlinear breather propagation. The purpose of this paper will be to discuss these results that have been obtained in optics, and to consider possible similarities and differences with oceanic rogue wave counterparts.

Identification of Atmospheric Blocking Events and its Influence on Temperature and Precipitation Extremes in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Richling, Andy; Rust, Henning W.; Bissolli, Peter; Ulbrich, Uwe

2017-04-01

Atmospheric blocking plays a crucial role in climate variability in the mid-latitudes. Especially meteorological extremes like heatwaves, cold spells and droughts are often related to persistent and stationary blocking events. For climate monitoring it is important to identify and characterise such blocking events as well as to analyse the relationship between blockings and meteorological extremes in a quantitative way. In this study we identify atmospheric blocking events and analyse the influence on temperature and precipitation extremes with statistical models. For the detection of atmospheric blocking events, we apply modified 2-dimensional versions of commonly used blocking indices suggested by Tibaldi and Molteni (1990) as well as Masato et al. (2013) on daily fields of 500hPa geopotential heights of the Era-Interim reanalysis dataset. A result is a list of blocking events with a multidimensional index characterising area, intensity, location and duration and maps of these parameters, which are intended to be used operationally for regular climate diagnostics at the German Meteorological Service. In addition, relationships between grid-point-base blocking frequency, intensity and location parameters and the number of daily temperature/precipitation extremes based on the E-OBS gridded dataset are investigated using general linear models on a monthly time scale. The number of counts as well as probabilities of occurrence of daily extremes within a certain calendar month will be analysed in this framework. G. Masato, B. J. Hoskins, and T. Woollings. Winter and Summer Northern Hemisphere Blocking in CMIP5 Models. J. Climate, 26:7044-7059, 2013a. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D- 12-00466.1. G. Masato, B. J. Hoskins, and T. Woollings. Wave-Breaking Characteristics of Northern Hemi- sphere Winter Blocking: A Two-Dimensional Approach. J. Climate, 26:4535-4549, 2013b. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00240.1. S. Tibaldi and F. Molteni. On the operational predictability of blocking. Tellus, 42A:343-365, 1990. doi: 10.1034/j.1600-0870.1990.t01-2-00003.x.

Estimates of peak flood discharge for 21 sites in the Front Range in Colorado in response to extreme rainfall in September 2013

USGS Publications Warehouse

Moody, John A.

2016-03-21

Extreme rainfall in September 2013 caused destructive floods in part of the Front Range in Boulder County, Colorado. Erosion from these floods cut roads and isolated mountain communities for several weeks, and large volumes of eroded sediment were deposited downstream, which caused further damage of property and infrastructures. Estimates of peak discharge for these floods and the associated rainfall characteristics will aid land and emergency managers in the future. Several methods (an ensemble) were used to estimate peak discharge at 21 measurement sites, and the ensemble average and standard deviation provided a final estimate of peak discharge and its uncertainty. Because of the substantial erosion and deposition of sediment, an additional estimate of peak discharge was made based on the flow resistance caused by sediment transport effects.Although the synoptic-scale rainfall was extreme (annual exceedance probability greater than 1,000 years, about 450 millimeters in 7 days) for these mountains, the resulting peak discharges were not. Ensemble average peak discharges per unit drainage area (unit peak discharge, [Qu]) for the floods were 1–2 orders of magnitude less than those for the maximum worldwide floods with similar drainage areas and had a wide range of values (0.21–16.2 cubic meters per second per square kilometer [m3 s-1 km-2]). One possible explanation for these differences was that the band of high-accumulation, high-intensity rainfall was narrow (about 50 kilometers wide), oriented nearly perpendicular to the predominant drainage pattern of the mountains, and therefore entire drainage areas were not subjected to the same range of extreme rainfall. A linear relation (coefficient of determination [R2]=0.69) between Qu and the rainfall intensity (ITc, computed for a time interval equal to the time-of-concentration for the drainage area upstream from each site), had the form: Qu=0.26(ITc-8.6), where the coefficient 0.26 can be considered to be an area-averaged peak runoff coefficient for the September 2013 rain storms in Boulder County, and the 8.6 millimeters per hour to be the rainfall intensity corresponding to a soil moisture threshold that controls the soil infiltration rate. Peak discharge estimates based on the sediment transport effects were generally less than the ensemble average and indicated that sediment transport may be a mechanism that limits velocities in these types of mountain streams such that the Froude number fluctuates about 1 suggesting that this type of floodflow can be approximated as critical flow.

Multistep Ionization of Argon Clusters in Intense Femtosecond Extreme Ultraviolet Pulses

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bostedt, C.; Thomas, H.; Hoener, M.

The interaction of intense extreme ultraviolet femtosecond laser pulses ({lambda}=32.8 nm) from the FLASH free electron laser (FEL) with clusters has been investigated by means of photoelectron spectroscopy and modeled by Monte Carlo simulations. For laser intensities up to 5x10{sup 13} W/cm{sup 2}, we find that the cluster ionization process is a sequence of direct electron emission events in a developing Coulomb field. A nanoplasma is formed only at the highest investigated power densities where ionization is frustrated due to the deep cluster potential. In contrast with earlier studies in the IR and vacuum ultraviolet spectral regime, we find nomore » evidence for electron emission from plasma heating processes.« less

A Remote Sensing-Based Tool for Assessing Rainfall-Driven Hazards

PubMed Central

Wright, Daniel B.; Mantilla, Ricardo; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.

2018-01-01

RainyDay is a Python-based platform that couples rainfall remote sensing data with Stochastic Storm Transposition (SST) for modeling rainfall-driven hazards such as floods and landslides. SST effectively lengthens the extreme rainfall record through temporal resampling and spatial transposition of observed storms from the surrounding region to create many extreme rainfall scenarios. Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves are often used for hazard modeling but require long records to describe the distribution of rainfall depth and duration and do not provide information regarding rainfall space-time structure, limiting their usefulness to small scales. In contrast, RainyDay can be used for many hazard applications with 1-2 decades of data, and output rainfall scenarios incorporate detailed space-time structure from remote sensing. Thanks to global satellite coverage, RainyDay can be used in inaccessible areas and developing countries lacking ground measurements, though results are impacted by remote sensing errors. RainyDay can be useful for hazard modeling under nonstationary conditions. PMID:29657544

Effect of loudness on reaction time and response force in different motor tasks.

PubMed

Jaśkowski, Piotr; Włodarczyk, Dariusz

2005-12-01

Van der Molen and Keuss, in 1979 and 1981, showed that paradoxically long reaction times occur with extremely strong auditory stimuli when the task is difficult, e.g., choice-by-location or Simon paradigm. It was argued that this paradoxical behavior of RT is due to active inhibition of an arousal-dependent bypassing mechanism to prevent false responses. As the peak force, i.e., maximal force exerted by participants on a response key, is considered to be related to immediate arousal, we predicted that for extremely loud stimuli and for difficult tasks, lengthening of RT should be associated with reduction of peak force. Moreover, these effects should be enhanced when emphasis is on accuracy rather than speed. Although the relation between RT and intensity depended on task difficulty, no increase in RT was found for the loudest tones. Moreover, peak force increased monotonically with loudness, showing no tendency to be suppressed for loudest tones and difficult tasks.

A Remote Sensing-Based Tool for Assessing Rainfall-Driven Hazards.

PubMed

Wright, Daniel B; Mantilla, Ricardo; Peters-Lidard, Christa D

2017-04-01

RainyDay is a Python-based platform that couples rainfall remote sensing data with Stochastic Storm Transposition (SST) for modeling rainfall-driven hazards such as floods and landslides. SST effectively lengthens the extreme rainfall record through temporal resampling and spatial transposition of observed storms from the surrounding region to create many extreme rainfall scenarios. Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves are often used for hazard modeling but require long records to describe the distribution of rainfall depth and duration and do not provide information regarding rainfall space-time structure, limiting their usefulness to small scales. In contrast, RainyDay can be used for many hazard applications with 1-2 decades of data, and output rainfall scenarios incorporate detailed space-time structure from remote sensing. Thanks to global satellite coverage, RainyDay can be used in inaccessible areas and developing countries lacking ground measurements, though results are impacted by remote sensing errors. RainyDay can be useful for hazard modeling under nonstationary conditions.

A Remote Sensing-Based Tool for Assessing Rainfall-Driven Hazards

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wright, Daniel B.; Mantilla, Ricardo; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.

2017-01-01

RainyDay is a Python-based platform that couples rainfall remote sensing data with Stochastic Storm Transposition (SST) for modeling rainfall-driven hazards such as floods and landslides. SST effectively lengthens the extreme rainfall record through temporal resampling and spatial transposition of observed storms from the surrounding region to create many extreme rainfall scenarios. Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves are often used for hazard modeling but require long records to describe the distribution of rainfall depth and duration and do not provide information regarding rainfall space-time structure, limiting their usefulness to small scales. In contrast, Rainy Day can be used for many hazard applications with 1-2 decades of data, and output rainfall scenarios incorporate detailed space-time structure from remote sensing. Thanks to global satellite coverage, Rainy Day can be used in inaccessible areas and developing countries lacking ground measurements, though results are impacted by remote sensing errors. Rainy Day can be useful for hazard modeling under nonstationary conditions.

QED effects induced harmonics generation in extreme intense laser foil interaction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, J. Y.; Yuan, T.; Liu, W. Y.; Chen, M.; Luo, W.; Weng, S. M.; Sheng, Z. M.

2018-04-01

A new mechanism of harmonics generation (HG) induced by quantum electrodynamics (QED) effects in extreme intense laser foil interaction is found and investigated by particle-in-cell (PIC) simulations. When two laser pulses with identical intensities of 1.6× {10}24 {{W}} {{{cm}}}-2 are counter-incident on a thin foil target, harmonics emission is observed in their reflected electromagnetic waves. Such harmonics radiation is excited due to transversely oscillating electric currents coming from the vibration of QED effect generated {e}-{e}+ pairs. The effects of laser intensity and polarization were studied. By distinguishing the cascade depth of generated photons and pairs, the influence of QED cascades on HG was analyzed. Although the current HG is not an efficient way for radiation source applications, it may provide a unique way to detect the QED processes in the near future ultra-relativistic laser solid interactions.

Transparency of near-critical density plasmas under extreme laser intensities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ji, Liangliang; Shen, Baifei; Zhang, Xiaomei

2018-05-01

We investigated transparency of near-critical plasma targets for highly intense incident lasers and discovered that beyond relativistic transparency, there exists an anomalous opacity regime, where the plasma target tend to be opaque at extreme light intensities. The unexpected phenomenon is found to originate from the trapping of ions under exotic conditions. We found out the propagation velocity and the amplitude of the laser-driven charge separation field in a large parameter range and derived the trapping probability of ions. The model successfully interpolates the emergence of anomalous opacity in simulations. The trend is more significant when radiation reaction comes into effect, leaving a transparency window in the intensity domain. Transparency of a plasma target defines the electron dynamics and thereby the emission mechanisms of gamma-photons in the ultra-relativistic regime. Our findings are not only of fundamental interest but also imply the proper mechanisms for generating desired electron/gamma sources.

Near Real-Time Flood Monitoring and Impact Assessment Systems. Chapter 6; [Case Study: 2011 Flooding in Southeast Asia

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ahamed, Aakash; Bolten, John; Doyle, Colin; Fayne, Jessica

2016-01-01

Floods are the costliest natural disaster, causing approximately 6.8 million deaths in the twentieth century alone. Worldwide economic flood damage estimates in 2012 exceed $19 Billion USD. Extended duration floods also pose longer term threats to food security, water, sanitation, hygiene, and community livelihoods, particularly in developing countries. Projections by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) suggest that precipitation extremes, rainfall intensity, storm intensity, and variability are increasing due to climate change. Increasing hydrologic uncertainty will likely lead to unprecedented extreme flood events. As such, there is a vital need to enhance and further develop traditional techniques used to rapidly assess flooding and extend analytical methods to estimate impacted population and infrastructure. Measuring flood extent in situ is generally impractical, time consuming, and can be inaccurate. Remotely sensed imagery acquired from space-borne and airborne sensors provides a viable platform for consistent and rapid wall-to-wall monitoring of large flood events through time. Terabytes of freely available satellite imagery are made available online each day by NASA, ESA, and other international space research institutions. Advances in cloud computing and data storage technologies allow researchers to leverage these satellite data and apply analytical methods at scale. Repeat-survey earth observations help provide insight about how natural phenomena change through time, including the progression and recession of floodwaters. In recent years, cloud-penetrating radar remote sensing techniques (e.g., Synthetic Aperture Radar) and high temporal resolution imagery platforms (e.g., MODIS and its 1-day return period), along with high performance computing infrastructure, have enabled significant advances in software systems that provide flood warning, assessments, and hazard reduction potential. By incorporating social and economic data, researchers can develop systems that automatically quantify the socioeconomic impacts resulting from flood disaster events.

Evaluation of uncertainty in capturing the spatial variability and magnitudes of extreme hydrological events for the uMngeni catchment, South Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kusangaya, Samuel; Warburton Toucher, Michele L.; van Garderen, Emma Archer

2018-02-01

Downscaled General Circulation Models (GCMs) output are used to forecast climate change and provide information used as input for hydrological modelling. Given that our understanding of climate change points towards an increasing frequency, timing and intensity of extreme hydrological events, there is therefore the need to assess the ability of downscaled GCMs to capture these extreme hydrological events. Extreme hydrological events play a significant role in regulating the structure and function of rivers and associated ecosystems. In this study, the Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration (IHA) method was adapted to assess the ability of simulated streamflow (using downscaled GCMs (dGCMs)) in capturing extreme river dynamics (high and low flows), as compared to streamflow simulated using historical climate data from 1960 to 2000. The ACRU hydrological model was used for simulating streamflow for the 13 water management units of the uMngeni Catchment, South Africa. Statistically downscaled climate models obtained from the Climate System Analysis Group at the University of Cape Town were used as input for the ACRU Model. Results indicated that, high flows and extreme high flows (one in ten year high flows/large flood events) were poorly represented both in terms of timing, frequency and magnitude. Simulated streamflow using dGCMs data also captures more low flows and extreme low flows (one in ten year lowest flows) than that captured in streamflow simulated using historical climate data. The overall conclusion was that although dGCMs output can reasonably be used to simulate overall streamflow, it performs poorly when simulating extreme high and low flows. Streamflow simulation from dGCMs must thus be used with caution in hydrological applications, particularly for design hydrology, as extreme high and low flows are still poorly represented. This, arguably calls for the further improvement of downscaling techniques in order to generate climate data more relevant and useful for hydrological applications such as in design hydrology. Nevertheless, the availability of downscaled climatic output provide the potential of exploring climate model uncertainties in different hydro climatic regions at local scales where forcing data is often less accessible but more accurate at finer spatial scales and with adequate spatial detail.

Extreme precipitation patterns reduced terrestrial ecosystem production across biomass

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Precipitation regimes are predicted to shift to more extreme patterns that are characterized by more intense rainfall events and longer dry intervals, yet their ecological impacts on vegetation production remain uncertain across biomes in natural climatic conditions. This in situ study investigated ...

Superstorms at the end of the Last Interglacial (MIS 5e)? Modeling paleo waves and the transport of giant boulders.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rovere, Alessio; Harris, Daniel; Casella, Elisa; Lorscheid, Thomas; Stocchi, Paolo; Nandasena, Napayalage; Sandstrom, Michael; D'Andrea, William; Dyer, Blake; Raymo, Maureen

2017-04-01

We present the results of high-resolution field surveys and wave models along the cliffs of the northern part of the Island of Eleuthera, Bahamas. Previous studies have proposed that cliff top mega-boulders were emplaced at the end of the Last Interglacial (MIS 5e, 128-116 ka) by giant swells caused by super-storms that find no counterpart in the Holocene (including historical times). Our results suggest that these boulders could have instead been transported from the cliff face to the top of the cliff by a storm analogous to the 1991 'Perfect Storm', if sea level during MIS 5e sea was more than 4 meters higher than today. We remark that the data-model approach used here is essential to interpreting the geologic evidence of extreme storms during past warm periods, which in turn, is an important tool for predicting the intensity of extreme storm events in future climates. Our results indicate that even without an increase in storm intensity, cliffs and hard coastal barriers might be subject to significant increases wave-generated stresses under conditions of sea levels modestly higher than present.

No effects of power line frequency extremely low frequency electromagnetic field exposure on selected neurobehavior tests of workers inspecting transformers and distribution line stations versus controls.

PubMed

Li, Li; Xiong, De-fu; Liu, Jia-wen; Li, Zi-xin; Zeng, Guang-cheng; Li, Hua-liang

2014-03-01

We aimed to evaluate the interference of 50 Hz extremely low frequency electromagnetic field (ELF-EMF) occupational exposure on the neurobehavior tests of workers performing tour-inspection close to transformers and distribution power lines. Occupational short-term "spot" measurements were carried out. 310 inspection workers and 300 logistics staff were selected as exposure and control. The neurobehavior tests were performed through computer-based neurobehavior evaluation system, including mental arithmetic, curve coincide, simple visual reaction time, visual retention, auditory digit span and pursuit aiming. In 500 kV areas electric field intensity at 71.98% of total measured 590 spots were above 5 kV/m (national occupational standard), while in 220 kV areas electric field intensity at 15.69% of total 701 spots were above 5 kV/m. Magnetic field flux density at all the spots was below 1,000 μT (ICNIRP occupational standard). The neurobehavior score changes showed no statistical significance. Results of neurobehavior tests among different age, seniority groups showed no significant changes. Neurobehavior changes caused by daily repeated ELF-EMF exposure were not observed in the current study.

Predictability of ENSO, the QBO, and European winter 2015/16

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scaife, A. A.; Ineson, S.; Ruth, C.; Dunstone, N. J.; Fereday, D.; Folland, C. K.; Good, E.; Gordon, M.; Hermanson, L.; Karpechko, A.; Knight, J. R.; MacLachlan, C.; Maidens, A. V.; Peterson, A.; Slingo, J.; Smith, D.; Walker, B.

2016-12-01

The northern winter of 2015/16 gave rise to the strongest El Niño event since 1997/8. Central and eastern Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies exceeded three degrees and closely resembled the strong El Niño in winter of 1982/3. A second feature of this winter was a strong westerly phase of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation and very strong winds in the stratospheric polar night jet. At the surface, intense extratropical circulation anomalies occurred in both the North Pacific and North Atlantic that were consistent with known teleconnections to the observed phases of ENSO and the QBO. The North Atlantic Oscillation was very positive in the early winter period (Nov-Dec) and was more blocked in the late winter. Initialised climate predictions were able to capture these signals at seasonal lead times. This case study adds to the evidence that north Atlantic circulation exhibits predictability on seasonal timescales, and in this case we show that even aspects of the detailed pattern and sub-seasonal evolution were predicted, providing warning of increased risk of extreme events such as the intense rainfall which caused extreme flooding in the UK in December.

Development of ultralow energy (1–10 eV) ion scattering spectrometry coupled with reflection absorption infrared spectroscopy and temperature programmed desorption for the investigation of molecular solids

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bag, Soumabha; Bhuin, Radha Gobinda; Methikkalam, Rabin Rajan J.

2014-01-15

Extremely surface specific information, limited to the first atomic layer of molecular surfaces, is essential to understand the chemistry and physics in upper atmospheric and interstellar environments. Ultra low energy ion scattering in the 1–10 eV window with mass selected ions can reveal extremely surface specific information which when coupled with reflection absorption infrared (RAIR) and temperature programmed desorption (TPD) spectroscopies, diverse chemical and physical properties of molecular species at surfaces could be derived. These experiments have to be performed at cryogenic temperatures and at ultra high vacuum conditions without the possibility of collisions of neutrals and background deposition inmore » view of the poor ion intensities and consequent need for longer exposure times. Here we combine a highly optimized low energy ion optical system designed for such studies coupled with RAIR and TPD and its initial characterization. Despite the ultralow collision energies and long ion path lengths employed, the ion intensities at 1 eV have been significant to collect a scattered ion spectrum of 1000 counts/s for mass selected CH{sub 2}{sup +}.« less

Identification of Extreme Events Under Climate Change Conditions Over Europe and The Northwest-atlantic Region: Spatial Patterns and Time Series Characteristics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leckebusch, G.; Ulbrich, U.; Speth, P.

In the context of climate change and the resulting possible impacts on socio-economic conditions for human activities it seems that due to a changed occurrence of extreme events more severe consequences have to be expected than from changes in the mean climate. These extreme events like floods, excessive heats and droughts or windstorms possess impacts on human social and economic life in different categories such as forestry, agriculture, energy use, tourism and the reinsurance business. Reinsurances are affected by nearly 70% of all insured damages over Europe in the case of wind- storms. Especially the December 1999 French windstorms caused damages about 10 billion. A new EU-founded project (MICE = Modelling the Impact of Climate Ex- tremes) will focus on these impacts caused by changed occurrences of extreme events over Europe. Based upon the output of general circulation models as well as regional climate models, investigations are carried out with regard to time series characteristics as well as the spatial patterns of extremes under climate changed conditions. After the definition of specific thresholds for climate extremes, in this talk we will focus on the results of the analysis for the different data sets (HadCM3 and CGCMII GCM's and RCM's, re-analyses, observations) with regard to windstorm events. At first the results of model outputs are validated against re-analyses and observations. Especially a comparison of the stormtrack (2.5 to 8 day bandpass filtered 500 hPa geopotential height), cyclone track, cyclone frequency and intensity is presented. Highly relevant to damages is the extreme wind near the ground level, so the 10 m wind speed will be investigated additionally. of special interest to possible impacts is the changed spatial occurrence of windspeed maxima under 2xCO2-induced climate change.

[Membranotropic effects of electromagnetic radiation of extremely high frequency on Escherichia coli].

PubMed

Trchunian, A; Ogandzhanian, E; Sarkisian, E; Gonian, S; Oganesian, A; Oganesian, S

2001-01-01

It was found that "sound" electromagnetic radiations of extremely high frequencies (53.5-68 GHz) or millimeter waves (wavelength range of 4.2-5.6 mm) of low intensity (power density 0.01 mW) have a bactericidal effect on Escherichia coli bacteria. It was shown that exposure to irradiation of extremely high frequencies increases the electrokinetic potential and surface change density of bacteria and decreases of membrane potential. The total secretion of hydrogen ions was suppressed, the H+ flux from the cytoplasm to medium decreased, and the flux of N,N'-dicyclohexylcarbodiimide-sensitive potassium ions increased, which was accompanied by changes in the stoichiometry of these fluxes and an increase in the sensitivity of H+ ions to N,N'-dicyclohexylcarbodiimide. The effects depended on duration of exposure: as the time of exposure increased, the bactericidal effect increased, whereas the membranotropic effects decreased. The effects also depended on growth phase of bacteria: the irradiation affected the cells in the stationary but not in the logarithmic phase. It is assumed that the H(+)-ATPase complex F0F1 is involved in membranotropic effects of electromagnetic radiation of extremely high frequencies. Presumably, there are some compensatory mechanisms that eliminate the membranotropic effects.

Current status of neonatal follow-up in Canada

PubMed Central

Synnes, Anne R; Lefebvre, Francine; Cake, Heather A

2006-01-01

Follow-up programs in Canada collect audit and outcome research data, and provide clinical and preventive health care to extremely premature survivors and other new survivors of neonatal intensive care. Results of a 2001 to 2002 survey of Canadian follow-up programs showed a tremendous variation in the patient populations seen, the timing of visits and the evaluations performed. A description of the new Quebec consortium of follow-up programs is provided and possible future directions are discussed. PMID:19030287

New Active Region Sputtering with Small Flares

NASA Image and Video Library

2018-05-29

An active region rotated into view and sputtered with numerous small flares and towering magnetic field lines that stretched out many times the diameter of Earth (May 23-25, 2018). Active regions are areas of intense magnetic energy. The field lines are illuminated by charged particles spiraling along them and easiest to discern when viewed in profile. The colorized images were taken in a wavelength of extreme ultraviolet light. Movies are available at https://photojournal.jpl.nasa.gov/catalog/PIA22461

Extreme energy cosmic rays (EECR) observation capabilities of an "Airwatch from Space" mission.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Marzo, C. N.

1999-01-01

The longitudinal development and other characteristics of the EECR induced atmospheric showers can be studied from space by detecting the fluorescence light induced in the atmospheric nitrogen. According to the Airwatch concept a single fast detector can be used for measuring both intensity and time development of the streak of fluorescence light produced by the atmospheric shower induced by an EECR. In the present communication the detection capabilities for the EECR observation from space are discussed.

Evaluation of precipitation extremes over the Asian domain: observation and modelling studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, In-Won; Oh, Jaiho; Woo, Sumin; Kripalani, R. H.

2018-04-01

In this study, a comparison in the precipitation extremes as exhibited by the seven reference datasets is made to ascertain whether the inferences based on these datasets agree or they differ. These seven datasets, roughly grouped in three categories i.e. rain-gauge based (APHRODITE, CPC-UNI), satellite-based (TRMM, GPCP1DD) and reanalysis based (ERA-Interim, MERRA, and JRA55), having a common data period 1998-2007 are considered. Focus is to examine precipitation extremes in the summer monsoon rainfall over South Asia, East Asia and Southeast Asia. Measures of extreme precipitation include the percentile thresholds, frequency of extreme precipitation events and other quantities. Results reveal that the differences in displaying extremes among the datasets are small over South Asia and East Asia but large differences among the datasets are displayed over the Southeast Asian region including the maritime continent. Furthermore, precipitation data appear to be more consistent over East Asia among the seven datasets. Decadal trends in extreme precipitation are consistent with known results over South and East Asia. No trends in extreme precipitation events are exhibited over Southeast Asia. Outputs of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulation data are categorized as high, medium and low-resolution models. The regions displaying maximum intensity of extreme precipitation appear to be dependent on model resolution. High-resolution models simulate maximum intensity of extreme precipitation over the Indian sub-continent, medium-resolution models over northeast India and South China and the low-resolution models over Bangladesh, Myanmar and Thailand. In summary, there are differences in displaying extreme precipitation statistics among the seven datasets considered here and among the 29 CMIP5 model data outputs.

Extreme events of perceived temperature over Europe: a projected northward extension of dangerous areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scoccimarro, Enrico; Fogli, Pier Giuseppe; Gualdi, Silvio

2017-04-01

It is well known that an increase of temperature over Europe, both in terms of averages and extremes, is expected within the current century. In order to consider health impacts under warm conditions, it is important to take into account the combined effect of temperature and humidity on the human body. To this aim a basic index - the humindex - representative of the perceived temperature, under different scenarios and periods, has been investigated in this study. A very low concomitance of extreme temperature events and extreme humindex events is found over the present climate, reinforcing the importance to investigate not only extreme temperature and relative humidity future projections but also the combination of the two parameters. A set of 10-km resolution regional climate simulations provided within the EUR-11 EURO-CORDEX multi-model effort, demonstrates ability in representing the intense and extreme events of the humindex over the present climate and to be eligible as a tool to quantify future changes in geographical patterns of exposed areas over Europe. An enlargement of the domain subject to dangerous conditions is found since the middle of the current century, reaching 60 degrees North when considering really extreme events. The most significant increase in humindex extreme events is found when comparing the 2066-2095 projections under rcp8.5 scenario, to the 1966-2005 period: bearing in mind that changes in relative humidity may either amplify or offset the health effects of temperature extremes, a less pronounced projected reduction of relative humidity intensity in the Northern part of the European domain, associated to extreme temperature and humindex, makes Northern Europe the most prone region to a local increase of the humindex extremes.

A laboratory assessment of the measurement accuracy of weighing type rainfall intensity gauges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Colli, M.; Chan, P. W.; Lanza, L. G.; La Barbera, P.

2012-04-01

In recent years the WMO Commission for Instruments and Methods of Observation (CIMO) fostered noticeable advancements in the accuracy of precipitation measurement issue by providing recommendations on the standardization of equipment and exposure, instrument calibration and data correction as a consequence of various comparative campaigns involving manufacturers and national meteorological services from the participating countries (Lanza et al., 2005; Vuerich et al., 2009). Extreme events analysis is proven to be highly affected by the on-site RI measurement accuracy (see e.g. Molini et al., 2004) and the time resolution of the available RI series certainly constitutes another key-factor in constructing hyetographs that are representative of real rain events. The OTT Pluvio2 weighing gauge (WG) and the GEONOR T-200 vibrating-wire precipitation gauge demonstrated very good performance under previous constant flow rate calibration efforts (Lanza et al., 2005). Although WGs do provide better performance than more traditional Tipping Bucket Rain gauges (TBR) under continuous and constant reference intensity, dynamic effects seem to affect the accuracy of WG measurements under real world/time varying rainfall conditions (Vuerich et al., 2009). The most relevant is due to the response time of the acquisition system and the derived systematic delay of the instrument in assessing the exact weight of the bin containing cumulated precipitation. This delay assumes a relevant role in case high resolution rain intensity time series are sought from the instrument, as is the case of many hydrologic and meteo-climatic applications. This work reports the laboratory evaluation of Pluvio2 and T-200 rainfall intensity measurements accuracy. Tests are carried out by simulating different artificial precipitation events, namely non-stationary rainfall intensity, using a highly accurate dynamic rainfall generator. Time series measured by an Ogawa drop counter (DC) at a field test site located within the Hong Kong International Airport (HKIA) were aggregated at a 1-minute scale and used as reference for the artificial rain generation (Colli et al., 2012). The preliminary development and validation of the rainfall simulator for the generation of variable time steps reference intensities is also shown. The generator is characterized by a sufficiently short time response with respect to the expected weighing gauges behavior in order to ensure effective comparison of the measured/reference intensity at very high resolution in time.

Multi-model analysis of precipitation-related climatological extremes for the Carpathian Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kis, Anna; Pongracz, Rita; Bartholy, Judit

2015-04-01

As a consequence of global climate change, both frequency and intensity of climatological and meteorological extremes are likely to change. These will certainly further induce various effects on hydrological extremes. Although more frequent hot weather in summer and overall warmer climatic conditions compared to the past decades are quite straightforward direct consequences of global warming, the effects on precipitation might be less clear because the higher spatial and temporal variabilities might hide robust changing signals. Nevertheless, precipitation is one of the most important meteorological variables since it considerably affects natural ecosystems and cultivated vegetation as well, as most of human activities. Extreme precipitation events - both excessive, intense rainfalls and severe droughts - may result in severe environmental, agricultural, and economical disasters. For instance, excessive precipitation may induce floods, flash-floods, landslides, traffic accidents. On the other hand, the lack of precipitation for extended period and coincidental intense heat wave often lead to severe drought events, which certainly affect agricultural production negatively, and hence, food safety might also be threatened. In order to avoid or at least reduce the effects of these precipitation-related hazards, national and local communities need to develop regional adaptation strategies, and then, act according to them. For this purpose, climatological projections are needed as a scientific basis. Coarse resolution results of global climate model (GCM) simulations must be downscaled to regional and local scales, hence better serving decision-makers' and end-users' needs. Dynamical downscaling technique applies regional climate model (RCM) to provide fine resolution climatological estimations for the future. Thus, in this study 11 completed RCM simulations with 25 km horizontal resolution are used from the ENSEMBLES database taking into account SRES A1B scenario for the 21st century. Before the thorough analysis of several drought- and precipitation-related climate indices (i.e., describing drought events, or intensity of precipitation exceeding different percentile-based or absolute threshold values, respectively), a percentile-based bias correction method was applied to the raw RCM output data, for which the homogenized daily gridded CarpatClim database (1961-2010) served as a reference. Absolute and relative seasonal mean changes of the climate indices are calculated for two future time periods (2021-2050 and 2071-2100) and for three subregions (i.e., Slovakia, Hungary, and Romania) within the entire Carpathian Region. According to our results, longer dry periods are estimated for the summer season, mainly in the southern parts of the domain, while precipitation intensity is likely to increase. Heavy precipitation days and high percentile values are projected to increase in the Carpathian Region, especially, in winter and autumn.

Implementation of specific strength training among industrial laboratory technicians: long-term effects on back, neck and upper extremity pain.

PubMed

Pedersen, Mogens Theisen; Andersen, Christoffer H; Zebis, Mette K; Sjøgaard, Gisela; Andersen, Lars L

2013-10-09

Previous studies have shown positive effects of physical exercise at the workplace on musculoskeletal disorders. However, long-term adherence remains a challenge. The present study evaluates long-term adherence and effects of a workplace strength training intervention on back, neck and upper extremity pain among laboratory technicians. Cluster-randomized controlled trial involving 537 industrial laboratory technicians. Subjects were randomized at the cluster level to one of two groups: training group 1 (TG1, n = 282) performing supervised strength training from February to June 2009 (round one) or training group 2 (TG2, n = 255) performing supervised strength training from August to December 2009 (round two). The outcome measures were changes in self-reported pain intensity (0-9) in the back, neck and upper extremity as well as Disability of the Arm, Shoulder and Hand (DASH, 0-100). Regular adherence, defined as at least one training session per week, was achieved by around 85% in both groups in the supervised training periods. In the intention-to-treat analyses there were significant group by time effects for pain in the neck, right shoulder, right hand and lower back and DASH-resulting in significant reductions in pain (mean 0.3 to 0.5) and DASH (mean 3.9) in the scheduled training group compared to the reference group. For TG1 there were no significant changes in pain in round two, i.e. they maintained the pain reduction achieved in round one. Subgroup analyses among those with severe pain (> = 3 on a scale of 0-9) showed a significant group by time effect for pain in the neck, right shoulder, upper back and lower back. For these subgroups the pain reduction in response to training ranged from 1.1 to 1.8. Specific strength training at the workplace can lead to significant long-term reductions in spinal and upper extremity pain and DASH. The pain reductions achieved during the intensive training phase with supervision appears to be maintained a half year later.

Atmospheric River Frequency and Intensity Changes in CMIP5 Climate Model Projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Warner, M.; Mass, C.; Salathe, E. P., Jr.

2012-12-01

Most extreme precipitation events that occur along the North American west coast are associated with narrow plumes of above-average water vapor concentration that stretch from the tropics or subtropics to the West Coast. These events generally occur during the wet season (October-March) and are referred to as atmospheric rivers (AR). ARs can cause major river management problems, damage from flooding or landslides, and loss of life. It is currently unclear how these events will change in frequency and intensity as a result of climate change in the coming century. While climate model global mean precipitation match observations reasonably well in historical runs, precipitation frequency and intensity is generally poorly represented at local scales; however, synoptic-scale features are more realistically simulated by climate models, and AR events can be identified by extremely high values of integrated water vapor flux at points near the West Coast. There have been many recent studies indicating changes in synoptic-scale features under climate change that could have meaningful impacts on the frequency and intensity of ARs. In this study, a suite of CMIP5 models are used to analyze predicted changes in frequency and intensity of AR events impacting the West Coast from the contemporary period (1970-1999) to the end of this century (2070-2099). Generally, integrated water vapor is predicted to increase in these models (both the mean and extremes) while low-level wind decreases and upper-level wind increases. This study aims to determine the influence of these changes on precipitation intensity in AR events in future climate simulations.

Lower extremity neuromuscular compensations during instrumented single leg hop testing 2-10 years following ACL reconstruction.

PubMed

Nyland, John; Wera, Jeff; Klein, Scott; Caborn, David N M

2014-12-01

This study compared lower extremity EMG activation and sagittal plane kinematics of subjects at a minimum of 2 years post-successful ACL reconstruction and rehabilitation during instrumented single leg hop testing. Comparisons were made based on subject responses to the following question, "compared to prior to your knee injury how capable are you now in performing sports activities"? Group 1=very capable, Group 2=capable, and Group 3=not capable. In addition to EMG (1000 Hz) and kinematic (60 Hz) data, subjective knee function, internal health locus of control, sports activity characteristics (intensity, frequency) pre-knee injury, and at follow-up were also compared. Group 3 had lower perceived knee function, decreased perceived sports intensity, and more subjects with decreased sports activity intensity by two levels compared to pre-injury values. Perceived function scores, anterior laxity measurements and grades were similar between groups. During single leg hop propulsion and landing Group 1 (very capable) had greater involved lower extremity gluteus maximus and medial hamstring activation amplitudes than Group 3 (not capable). Perceived sports capability was related to better subjective knee function, and higher perceived sports activity intensity. Neuromuscular compensations suggesting a hip bias with increased gluteus maximus and medial hamstring activation were identified at the involved lower extremity among most subjects who perceived high perceived sports capability compared to pre-injury status. These compensations may be related to a permanent neurosensory deficit, and its influence on afferent pathway changes that influence CNS sensorimotor re-organization. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

More frequent intense and long-lived storms dominate the springtime trend in central US rainfall

PubMed Central

Feng, Zhe; Leung, L. Ruby; Hagos, Samson; Houze, Robert A.; Burleyson, Casey D.; Balaguru, Karthik

2016-01-01

The changes in extreme rainfall associated with a warming climate have drawn significant attention in recent years. Mounting evidence shows that sub-daily convective rainfall extremes are increasing faster than the rate of change in the atmospheric precipitable water capacity with a warming climate. However, the response of extreme precipitation depends on the type of storm supported by the meteorological environment. Here using long-term satellite, surface radar and rain-gauge network data and atmospheric reanalyses, we show that the observed increases in springtime total and extreme rainfall in the central United States are dominated by mesoscale convective systems (MCSs), the largest type of convective storm, with increased frequency and intensity of long-lasting MCSs. A strengthening of the southerly low-level jet and its associated moisture transport in the Central/Northern Great Plains, in the overall climatology and particularly on days with long-lasting MCSs, accounts for the changes in the precipitation produced by these storms. PMID:27834368

More frequent intense and long-lived storms dominate the springtime trend in central US rainfall

DOE PAGES

Feng, Zhe; Leung, L. Ruby; Hagos, Samson M.; ...

2016-11-11

Here, the changes in extreme rainfall associated with a warming climate have drawn significant attention in recent years. Mounting evidence shows that sub-daily convective rainfall extremes are increasing faster than the rate of change in the atmospheric precipitable water capacity with a warming climate. However, the response of extreme precipitation depends on the type of storm supported by the meteorological environment. Here using long-term satellite, surface radar and rain-gauge network data and atmospheric reanalyses, we show that the observed increases in springtime total and extreme rainfall in 36 the central U.S. are dominated by mesoscale convective systems (MCSs), the largestmore » type of convective storm, with increased frequency and intensity of long-lasting MCSs. A strengthening of the southerly low-level jet and its associated moisture transport in the Central/Northern Great Plains, in the overall climatology and particularly on days with long-lasting MCSs, accounts for the changes in the precipitation produced by these storms.« less

More frequent intense and long-lived storms dominate the springtime trend in central US rainfall

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Feng, Zhe; Leung, L. Ruby; Hagos, Samson M.

Here, the changes in extreme rainfall associated with a warming climate have drawn significant attention in recent years. Mounting evidence shows that sub-daily convective rainfall extremes are increasing faster than the rate of change in the atmospheric precipitable water capacity with a warming climate. However, the response of extreme precipitation depends on the type of storm supported by the meteorological environment. Here using long-term satellite, surface radar and rain-gauge network data and atmospheric reanalyses, we show that the observed increases in springtime total and extreme rainfall in 36 the central U.S. are dominated by mesoscale convective systems (MCSs), the largestmore » type of convective storm, with increased frequency and intensity of long-lasting MCSs. A strengthening of the southerly low-level jet and its associated moisture transport in the Central/Northern Great Plains, in the overall climatology and particularly on days with long-lasting MCSs, accounts for the changes in the precipitation produced by these storms.« less

On the Log-Normality of Historical Magnetic-Storm Intensity Statistics: Implications for Extreme-Event Probabilities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Love, J. J.; Rigler, E. J.; Pulkkinen, A. A.; Riley, P.

2015-12-01

An examination is made of the hypothesis that the statistics of magnetic-storm-maximum intensities are the realization of a log-normal stochastic process. Weighted least-squares and maximum-likelihood methods are used to fit log-normal functions to -Dst storm-time maxima for years 1957-2012; bootstrap analysis is used to established confidence limits on forecasts. Both methods provide fits that are reasonably consistent with the data; both methods also provide fits that are superior to those that can be made with a power-law function. In general, the maximum-likelihood method provides forecasts having tighter confidence intervals than those provided by weighted least-squares. From extrapolation of maximum-likelihood fits: a magnetic storm with intensity exceeding that of the 1859 Carrington event, -Dst > 850 nT, occurs about 1.13 times per century and a wide 95% confidence interval of [0.42, 2.41] times per century; a 100-yr magnetic storm is identified as having a -Dst > 880 nT (greater than Carrington) but a wide 95% confidence interval of [490, 1187] nT. This work is partially motivated by United States National Science and Technology Council and Committee on Space Research and International Living with a Star priorities and strategic plans for the assessment and mitigation of space-weather hazards.

Comparison of injury epidemiology between the Wenchuan and Lushan earthquakes in Sichuan, China.

PubMed

Hu, Yang; Zheng, Xi; Yuan, Yong; Pu, Qiang; Liu, Lunxu; Zhao, Yongfan

2014-12-01

We aimed to compare injury characteristics and the timing of admissions and surgeries in the Wenchuan earthquake in 2008 and the Lushan earthquake in 2013. We retrospectively compared the admission and operating times and injury profiles of patients admitted to our medical center during both earthquakes. We also explored the relationship between seismic intensity and injury type. The time from earthquake onset to the peak in patient admissions and surgeries differed between the 2 earthquakes. In the Wenchuan earthquake, injuries due to being struck by objects or being buried were more frequent than other types of injuries, and more patients suffered injuries of the extremities than thoracic injuries or brain trauma. In the Lushan earthquake, falls were the most common injury, and more patients suffered thoracic trauma or brain injuries. The types of injury seemed to vary with seismic intensity, whereas the anatomical location of the injury did not. Greater seismic intensity of an earthquake is associated with longer delay between the event and the peak in patient admissions and surgeries, higher frequencies of injuries due to being struck or buried, and lower frequencies of injuries due to falls and injuries to the chest and brain. These insights may prove useful for planning rescue interventions in trauma centers near the epicenter.

Dynamical analysis of extreme precipitation in the US northeast based on large-scale meteorological patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Agel, Laurie; Barlow, Mathew; Colby, Frank; Binder, Hanin; Catto, Jennifer L.; Hoell, Andrew; Cohen, Judah

2018-05-01

Previous work has identified six large-scale meteorological patterns (LSMPs) of dynamic tropopause height associated with extreme precipitation over the Northeast US, with extreme precipitation defined as the top 1% of daily station precipitation. Here, we examine the three-dimensional structure of the tropopause LSMPs in terms of circulation and factors relevant to precipitation, including moisture, stability, and synoptic mechanisms associated with lifting. Within each pattern, the link between the different factors and extreme precipitation is further investigated by comparing the relative strength of the factors between days with and without the occurrence of extreme precipitation. The six tropopause LSMPs include two ridge patterns, two eastern US troughs, and two troughs centered over the Ohio Valley, with a strong seasonality associated with each pattern. Extreme precipitation in the ridge patterns is associated with both convective mechanisms (instability combined with moisture transport from the Great Lakes and Western Atlantic) and synoptic forcing related to Great Lakes storm tracks and embedded shortwaves. Extreme precipitation associated with eastern US troughs involves intense southerly moisture transport and strong quasi-geostrophic forcing of vertical velocity. Ohio Valley troughs are associated with warm fronts and intense warm conveyor belts that deliver large amounts of moisture ahead of storms, but little direct quasi-geostrophic forcing. Factors that show the largest difference between days with and without extreme precipitation include integrated moisture transport, low-level moisture convergence, warm conveyor belts, and quasi-geostrophic forcing, with the relative importance varying between patterns.

Erosion during extreme flood events dominates Holocene canyon evolution in northeast Iceland.

PubMed

Baynes, Edwin R C; Attal, Mikaël; Niedermann, Samuel; Kirstein, Linda A; Dugmore, Andrew J; Naylor, Mark

2015-02-24

Extreme flood events have the potential to cause catastrophic landscape change in short periods of time (10(0) to 10(3) h). However, their impacts are rarely considered in studies of long-term landscape evolution (>10(3) y), because the mechanisms of erosion during such floods are poorly constrained. Here we use topographic analysis and cosmogenic (3)He surface exposure dating of fluvially sculpted surfaces to determine the impact of extreme flood events within the Jökulsárgljúfur canyon (northeast Iceland) and to constrain the mechanisms of bedrock erosion during these events. Surface exposure ages allow identification of three periods of intense canyon cutting about 9 ka ago, 5 ka ago, and 2 ka ago during which multiple large knickpoints retreated large distances (>2 km). During these events, a threshold flow depth was exceeded, leading to the toppling and transportation of basalt lava columns. Despite continuing and comparatively large-scale (500 m(3)/s) discharge of sediment-rich glacial meltwater, there is no evidence for a transition to an abrasion-dominated erosion regime since the last erosive event because the vertical knickpoints have not diffused over time. We provide a model for the evolution of the Jökulsárgljúfur canyon through the reconstruction of the river profile and canyon morphology at different stages over the last 9 ka and highlight the dominant role played by extreme flood events in the shaping of this landscape during the Holocene.

Erosion during extreme flood events dominates Holocene canyon evolution in northeast Iceland

PubMed Central

Baynes, Edwin R. C.; Attal, Mikaël; Kirstein, Linda A.; Dugmore, Andrew J.; Naylor, Mark

2015-01-01

Extreme flood events have the potential to cause catastrophic landscape change in short periods of time (100 to 103 h). However, their impacts are rarely considered in studies of long-term landscape evolution (>103 y), because the mechanisms of erosion during such floods are poorly constrained. Here we use topographic analysis and cosmogenic 3He surface exposure dating of fluvially sculpted surfaces to determine the impact of extreme flood events within the Jökulsárgljúfur canyon (northeast Iceland) and to constrain the mechanisms of bedrock erosion during these events. Surface exposure ages allow identification of three periods of intense canyon cutting about 9 ka ago, 5 ka ago, and 2 ka ago during which multiple large knickpoints retreated large distances (>2 km). During these events, a threshold flow depth was exceeded, leading to the toppling and transportation of basalt lava columns. Despite continuing and comparatively large-scale (500 m3/s) discharge of sediment-rich glacial meltwater, there is no evidence for a transition to an abrasion-dominated erosion regime since the last erosive event because the vertical knickpoints have not diffused over time. We provide a model for the evolution of the Jökulsárgljúfur canyon through the reconstruction of the river profile and canyon morphology at different stages over the last 9 ka and highlight the dominant role played by extreme flood events in the shaping of this landscape during the Holocene. PMID:25675484

Attributing extreme precipitation in the Black Sea region to sea surface warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meredith, Edmund; Semenov, Vladimir; Maraun, Douglas; Park, Wonsun; Chernokulsky, Alexander

2016-04-01

Higher sea surface temperatures (SSTs) warm and moisten the overlying atmosphere, increasing the low-level atmospheric instability, the moisture available to precipitating systems and, hence, the potential for intense convective systems. Both the Mediterranean and Black Sea regions have seen a steady increase in summertime SSTs since the early 1980s, by over 2 K in places. This raises the question of how this SST increase has affected convective precipitation extremes in the region, and through which mechanisms any effects are manifested. In particular, the Black Sea town of Krymsk suffered an unprecedented precipitation extreme in July 2012, which may have been influenced by Black Sea warming, causing over 170 deaths. To address this question, we adopt two distinct modelling approaches to event attribution and compare their relative merits. In the first, we use the traditional probabilistic event attribution approach involving global climate model ensembles representative of the present and a counterfactual past climate where regional SSTs have not increased. In the second, we use the conditional event attribution approach, taking the 2012 Krymsk precipitation extreme as a showcase example. Under the second approach, we carry out ensemble sensitivity experiments of the Krymsk event at convection-permitting resolution with the WRF regional model, and test the sensitivity of the event to a range of SST forcings. Both experiments show the crucial role of recent Black Sea warming in amplifying the 2012 Krymsk precipitation extreme. In the conditional event attribution approach, though, the explicit simulation of convective processes provides detailed insight into the physical mechanisms behind the extremeness of the event, revealing the dominant role of dynamical (i.e. static stability and vertical motions) over thermodynamical (i.e. increased atmospheric moisture) changes. Additionally, the wide range of SST states tested in the regional setup, which would be infeasible under the global modelling approach, reveal that the intensity of the Krymsk event responds highly nonlinearly to Black Sea warming and suggests a role for regional SST thresholds in more intense coastal convective extremes.

Novel All-Extremity High-Intensity Interval Training Improves Aerobic Fitness, Cardiac Function and Insulin Resistance in Healthy Older Adults

PubMed Central

Hwang, Chueh-Lung; Yoo, Jeung-Ki; Kim, Han-Kyul; Hwang, Moon-Hyon; Handberg, Eileen M.; Petersen, John W.; Christou, Demetra D.

2016-01-01

Aging is associated with decreased aerobic fitness and cardiac remodeling leading to increased risk for cardiovascular disease. High-intensity interval training (HIIT) on the treadmill has been reported to be more effective in ameliorating these risk factors compared with moderate-intensity continuous training (MICT) in patients with cardiometabolic disease. In older adults, however, weight-bearing activities are frequently limited due to musculoskeletal and balance problems. The purpose of this study was to examine the feasibility and safety of non-weight-bearing all-extremity HIIT in older adults. In addition, we tested the hypothesis that all-extremity HIIT will be more effective in improving aerobic fitness, cardiac function, and metabolic risk factors compared with all-extremity MICT. Fifty-one healthy sedentary older adults (age: 65±1 years) were randomized to HIIT (n=17), MICT (n=18) or non-exercise control (CONT; n=16). HIIT (4×4 minutes 90% of peak heart rate; HRpeak) and isocaloric MICT (70% of HRpeak) were performed on a non-weight-bearing all-extremity ergometer, 4x/week for 8 weeks under supervision. All-extremity HIIT was feasible in older adults and resulted in no adverse events. Aerobic fitness (peak oxygen consumption; VO2peak) and ejection fraction (echocardiography) improved by 11% (P<0.0001) and 4% (P=0.001) respectively in HIIT, while no changes were observed in MICT and CONT (P≥0.1). Greater improvements in ejection fraction were associated with greater improvements in VO2peak (r=0.57; P<0.0001). Insulin resistance (homeostatic model assessment) decreased only in HIIT by 26% (P=0.016). Diastolic function, body composition, glucose and lipids were unaffected (P≥0.1). In conclusion, all-extremity HIIT is feasible and safe in older adults. HIIT, but not MICT, improved aerobic fitness, ejection fraction, and insulin resistance. PMID:27346646

Novel all-extremity high-intensity interval training improves aerobic fitness, cardiac function and insulin resistance in healthy older adults.

PubMed

Hwang, Chueh-Lung; Yoo, Jeung-Ki; Kim, Han-Kyul; Hwang, Moon-Hyon; Handberg, Eileen M; Petersen, John W; Christou, Demetra D

2016-09-01

Aging is associated with decreased aerobic fitness and cardiac remodeling leading to increased risk for cardiovascular disease. High-intensity interval training (HIIT) on the treadmill has been reported to be more effective in ameliorating these risk factors compared with moderate-intensity continuous training (MICT) in patients with cardiometabolic disease. In older adults, however, weight-bearing activities are frequently limited due to musculoskeletal and balance problems. The purpose of this study was to examine the feasibility and safety of non-weight-bearing all-extremity HIIT in older adults. In addition, we tested the hypothesis that all-extremity HIIT will be more effective in improving aerobic fitness, cardiac function, and metabolic risk factors compared with all-extremity MICT. Fifty-one healthy sedentary older adults (age: 65±1years) were randomized to HIIT (n=17), MICT (n=18) or non-exercise control (CONT; n=16). HIIT (4×4min 90% of peak heart rate; HRpeak) and isocaloric MICT (70% of HRpeak) were performed on a non-weight-bearing all-extremity ergometer, 4×/week for 8weeks under supervision. All-extremity HIIT was feasible in older adults and resulted in no adverse events. Aerobic fitness (peak oxygen consumption; VO2peak) and ejection fraction (echocardiography) improved by 11% (P<0.0001) and 4% (P=0.001), respectively in HIIT, while no changes were observed in MICT and CONT (P≥0.1). Greater improvements in ejection fraction were associated with greater improvements in VO2peak (r=0.57; P<0.0001). Insulin resistance (homeostatic model assessment) decreased only in HIIT by 26% (P=0.016). Diastolic function, body composition, glucose and lipids were unaffected (P≥0.1). In conclusion, all-extremity HIIT is feasible and safe in older adults. HIIT, but not MICT, improved aerobic fitness, ejection fraction, and insulin resistance. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Beyond Traditional Extreme Value Theory Through a Metastatistical Approach: Lessons Learned from Precipitation, Hurricanes, and Storm Surges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marani, M.; Zorzetto, E.; Hosseini, S. R.; Miniussi, A.; Scaioni, M.

2017-12-01

The Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution is widely adopted irrespective of the properties of the stochastic process generating the extreme events. However, GEV presents several limitations, both theoretical (asymptotic validity for a large number of events/year or hypothesis of Poisson occurrences of Generalized Pareto events), and practical (fitting uses just yearly maxima or a few values above a high threshold). Here we describe the Metastatistical Extreme Value Distribution (MEVD, Marani & Ignaccolo, 2015), which relaxes asymptotic or Poisson/GPD assumptions and makes use of all available observations. We then illustrate the flexibility of the MEVD by applying it to daily precipitation, hurricane intensity, and storm surge magnitude. Application to daily rainfall from a global raingauge network shows that MEVD estimates are 50% more accurate than those from GEV when the recurrence interval of interest is much greater than the observational period. This makes MEVD suited for application to satellite rainfall observations ( 20 yrs length). Use of MEVD on TRMM data yields extreme event patterns that are in better agreement with surface observations than corresponding GEV estimates.Applied to the HURDAT2 Atlantic hurricane intensity dataset, MEVD significantly outperforms GEV estimates of extreme hurricanes. Interestingly, the Generalized Pareto distribution used for "ordinary" hurricane intensity points to the existence of a maximum limit wind speed that is significantly smaller than corresponding physically-based estimates. Finally, we applied the MEVD approach to water levels generated by tidal fluctuations and storm surges at a set of coastal sites spanning different storm-surge regimes. MEVD yields accurate estimates of large quantiles and inferences on tail thickness (fat vs. thin) of the underlying distribution of "ordinary" surges. In summary, the MEVD approach presents a number of theoretical and practical advantages, and outperforms traditional approaches in several applications. We conclude that the MEVD is a significant contribution to further generalize extreme value theory, with implications for a broad range of Earth Sciences.

Analysis of extreme rainfall events using attributes control charts in temporal rainfall processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Villeta, María; Valencia, Jose Luis; Saá-Requejo, Antonio; María Tarquis, Ana

2015-04-01

The impacts of most intense rainfall events on agriculture and insurance industry can be very severe. This research focuses in the analysis of extreme rainfall events throughout the use of attributes control charts, which constitutes a usual tool in Statistical Process Control (SPC) but unusual in climate studios. Here, series of daily precipitations for the years 1931-2009 within a Spanish region are analyzed, based on a new type of attributes control chart that takes into account the autocorrelation between the extreme rainfall events. The aim is to conclude if there exist or not evidence of a change in the extreme rainfall model of the considered series. After adjusting seasonally the precipitation series and considering the data of the first 30 years, a frequency-based criterion allowed fixing specification limits in order to discriminate between extreme observed rainfall days and normal observed rainfall days. The autocorrelation amongst maximum precipitation is taken into account by a New Binomial Markov Extended Process obtained for each rainfall series. These modelling of the extreme rainfall processes provide a way to generate the attributes control charts for the annual fraction of rainfall extreme days. The extreme rainfall processes along the rest of the years under study can then be monitored by such attributes control charts. The results of the application of this methodology show evidence of change in the model of extreme rainfall events in some of the analyzed precipitation series. This suggests that the attributes control charts proposed for the analysis of the most intense precipitation events will be of practical interest to agriculture and insurance sectors in next future.

Changes in extreme events and the potential impacts on human health.

PubMed

Bell, Jesse E; Brown, Claudia Langford; Conlon, Kathryn; Herring, Stephanie; Kunkel, Kenneth E; Lawrimore, Jay; Luber, George; Schreck, Carl; Smith, Adam; Uejio, Christopher

2018-04-01

Extreme weather and climate-related events affect human health by causing death, injury, and illness, as well as having large socioeconomic impacts. Climate change has caused changes in extreme event frequency, intensity, and geographic distribution, and will continue to be a driver for change in the future. Some of these events include heat waves, droughts, wildfires, dust storms, flooding rains, coastal flooding, storm surges, and hurricanes. The pathways connecting extreme events to health outcomes and economic losses can be diverse and complex. The difficulty in predicting these relationships comes from the local societal and environmental factors that affect disease burden. More information is needed about the impacts of climate change on public health and economies to effectively plan for and adapt to climate change. This paper describes some of the ways extreme events are changing and provides examples of the potential impacts on human health and infrastructure. It also identifies key research gaps to be addressed to improve the resilience of public health to extreme events in the future. Extreme weather and climate events affect human health by causing death, injury, and illness, as well as having large socioeconomic impacts. Climate change has caused changes in extreme event frequency, intensity, and geographic distribution, and will continue to be a driver for change in the future. Some of these events include heat waves, droughts, wildfires, flooding rains, coastal flooding, surges, and hurricanes. The pathways connecting extreme events to health outcomes and economic losses can be diverse and complex. The difficulty in predicting these relationships comes from the local societal and environmental factors that affect disease burden.

Ecological Responses to Extreme Flooding Events: A Case Study with a Reintroduced Bird

PubMed Central

Soriano-Redondo, Andrea; Bearhop, Stuart; Cleasby, Ian R.; Lock, Leigh; Votier, Stephen C.; Hilton, Geoff M.

2016-01-01

In recent years numerous studies have documented the effects of a changing climate on the world’s biodiversity. Although extreme weather events are predicted to increase in frequency and intensity and are challenging to organisms, there are few quantitative observations on the survival, behaviour and energy expenditure of animals during such events. We provide the first data on activity and energy expenditure of birds, Eurasian cranes Grus grus, during the winter of 2013–14, which saw the most severe floods in SW England in over 200 years. We fitted 23 cranes with telemetry devices and used remote sensing data to model flood dynamics during three consecutive winters (2012–2015). Our results show that during the acute phase of the 2013–14 floods, potential feeding areas decreased dramatically and cranes restricted their activity to a small partially unflooded area. They also increased energy expenditure (+15%) as they increased their foraging activity and reduced resting time. Survival did not decline in 2013–14, indicating that even though extreme climatic events strongly affected time-energy budgets, behavioural plasticity alleviated any potential impact on fitness. However under climate change scenarios such challenges may not be sustainable over longer periods and potentially could increase species vulnerability. PMID:27345214

Computer-assisted upper extremity training using interactive biking exercise (iBikE) platform.

PubMed

Jeong, In Cheol; Finkelstein, Joseph

2012-01-01

Upper extremity exercise training has been shown to improve clinical outcomes in different chronic health conditions. Arm-operated bicycles are frequently used to facilitate upper extremity training however effective use of these devices at patient homes is hampered by lack of remote connectivity with clinical rehabilitation team, inability to monitor exercise progress in real time using simple graphical representation, and absence of an alert system which would prevent exertion levels exceeding those approved by the clinical rehabilitation team. We developed an interactive biking exercise (iBikE) platform aimed at addressing these limitations. The platform uses a miniature wireless 3-axis accelerometer mounted on a patient wrist that transmits the cycling acceleration data to a laptop. The laptop screen presents an exercise dashboard to the patient in real time allowing easy graphical visualization of exercise progress and presentation of exercise parameters in relation to prescribed targets. The iBikE platform is programmed to alert the patient when exercise intensity exceeds the levels recommended by the patient care provider. The iBikE platform has been tested in 7 healthy volunteers (age range: 26-50 years) and shown to reliably reflect exercise progress and to generate alerts at pre-setup levels. Implementation of remote connectivity with patient rehabilitation team is warranted for future extension and evaluation efforts.

Research progress of extreme climate and its vegetation response

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cui, Xiaolin; Wei, Xiaoqing; Wang, Tao

2017-08-01

The IPCC’s fifth assessment report indicates that climate warming is unquestionable, the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events may increase, and extreme weather events can destroy the growth conditions of vegetation that is otherwise in a stable condition. Therefore, it is essential to research the formation of extreme weather events and its ecological response, both in terms scientific development and the needs of societal development. This paper mainly examines these issues from the following aspects: (1) the definition of extreme climate events and the methods of studying the associated response of vegetation; (2) the research progress on extreme climate events and their vegetation response; and (3) the future direction of research on extreme climate and its vegetation response.

How extreme was the October 2015 flood in the Carolinas? An assessment of flood frequency analysis and distribution tails

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Phillips, R. C.; Samadi, S. Z.; Meadows, M. E.

2018-07-01

This paper examines the frequency, distribution tails, and peak-over-threshold (POT) of extreme floods through analysis that centers on the October 2015 flooding in North Carolina (NC) and South Carolina (SC), United States (US). The most striking features of the October 2015 flooding were a short time to peak (Tp) and a multi-hour continuous flood peak which caused intensive and widespread damages to human lives, properties, and infrastructure. The 2015 flooding was produced by a sequence of intense rainfall events which originated from category 4 hurricane Joaquin over a period of four days. Here, the probability distribution and distribution parameters (i.e., location, scale, and shape) of floods were investigated by comparing the upper part of empirical distributions of the annual maximum flood (AMF) and POT with light- to heavy- theoretical tails: Fréchet, Pareto, Gumbel, Weibull, Beta, and Exponential. Specifically, four sets of U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) gauging data from the central Carolinas with record lengths from approximately 65-125 years were used. Analysis suggests that heavier-tailed distributions are in better agreement with the POT and somewhat AMF data than more often used exponential (light) tailed probability distributions. Further, the threshold selection and record length affect the heaviness of the tail and fluctuations of the parent distributions. The shape parameter and its evolution in the period of record play a critical and poorly understood role in determining the scaling of flood response to intense rainfall.

[Cutaneous melanoma - "black death" of modern times? Traces in contemporary literature].

PubMed

Bahmer, F A; Bahmer, J A

2013-11-01

Cutaneous melanoma, sometimes labeled as "black skin cancer", is increasing in frequency and becoming a more common literary motive. In US literature, Sylvia Plath and Charles Bukowski depicted melanoma more than 50 years ago, later Stephen King and Thomas C. Boyle. In German literature, Charlotte Roche shortly mentioned this tumor. Jörg Pönnighaus, both poet and dermatologist, intensively deals in his poems with the effects melanoma has on patients and doctors alike. Melanoma definitely is not the "Black Death" of modern times. However, the perception of this tumor as extremely malignant and as life-threatening makes melanoma a metaphor of the deadly danger of cancer.

Increasing potential for intense tropical and subtropical thunderstorms under global warming.

PubMed

Singh, Martin S; Kuang, Zhiming; Maloney, Eric D; Hannah, Walter M; Wolding, Brandon O

2017-10-31

Intense thunderstorms produce rapid cloud updrafts and may be associated with a range of destructive weather events. An important ingredient in measures of the potential for intense thunderstorms is the convective available potential energy (CAPE). Climate models project increases in summertime mean CAPE in the tropics and subtropics in response to global warming, but the physical mechanisms responsible for such increases and the implications for future thunderstorm activity remain uncertain. Here, we show that high percentiles of the CAPE distribution (CAPE extremes) also increase robustly with warming across the tropics and subtropics in an ensemble of state-of-the-art climate models, implying strong increases in the frequency of occurrence of environments conducive to intense thunderstorms in future climate projections. The increase in CAPE extremes is consistent with a recently proposed theoretical model in which CAPE depends on the influence of convective entrainment on the tropospheric lapse rate, and we demonstrate the importance of this influence for simulated CAPE extremes using a climate model in which the convective entrainment rate is varied. We further show that the theoretical model is able to account for the climatological relationship between CAPE and a measure of lower-tropospheric humidity in simulations and in observations. Our results provide a physical basis on which to understand projected future increases in intense thunderstorm potential, and they suggest that an important mechanism that contributes to such increases may be present in Earth's atmosphere. Published under the PNAS license.

Increasing potential for intense tropical and subtropical thunderstorms under global warming

PubMed Central

Kuang, Zhiming; Maloney, Eric D.; Hannah, Walter M.; Wolding, Brandon O.

2017-01-01

Intense thunderstorms produce rapid cloud updrafts and may be associated with a range of destructive weather events. An important ingredient in measures of the potential for intense thunderstorms is the convective available potential energy (CAPE). Climate models project increases in summertime mean CAPE in the tropics and subtropics in response to global warming, but the physical mechanisms responsible for such increases and the implications for future thunderstorm activity remain uncertain. Here, we show that high percentiles of the CAPE distribution (CAPE extremes) also increase robustly with warming across the tropics and subtropics in an ensemble of state-of-the-art climate models, implying strong increases in the frequency of occurrence of environments conducive to intense thunderstorms in future climate projections. The increase in CAPE extremes is consistent with a recently proposed theoretical model in which CAPE depends on the influence of convective entrainment on the tropospheric lapse rate, and we demonstrate the importance of this influence for simulated CAPE extremes using a climate model in which the convective entrainment rate is varied. We further show that the theoretical model is able to account for the climatological relationship between CAPE and a measure of lower-tropospheric humidity in simulations and in observations. Our results provide a physical basis on which to understand projected future increases in intense thunderstorm potential, and they suggest that an important mechanism that contributes to such increases may be present in Earth’s atmosphere. PMID:29078312

Evolution in Intensity and Frequency of Extreme Events of Precipitation in Northeast Region and Brazilian Amazon in XXI Century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fonseca, P. M.; Veiga, J. A.; Correia, F. S.; Brito, A. L.

2013-05-01

The aim of this research was evaluate changes in frequency and intensity of extreme events of precipitation in Brazilian Amazon and Northeast Region, doubling CO2 concentration in agreement of IPCC A2 emissions scenarios (Nakicenovic et al., 2001). For this evaluation was used ETA model (Chou et al., 2011), forced with CCSM3 Global model data (Meehl, 2006) to run 4 experiments, only for January, February and March: 1980-1990, 2000-2010, 2040-2050 and 2090-2100. Using the first decade as reference (1980-1990), was evaluated changes occurred in following decades, with a methodology to classify extremes events adapted from Frich (2002) and Gao (2006). Higher was the class, more intense is the event. An increase of 25% was observed in total precipitation in Brazilian Amazon for the end of XXI century and 12% for extreme events type 1, 9% for events type 2 and 10% for type 3. By the other hand, a 17% decrease of precipitation in Brazilian Northeast was observed, and a pronounced decay of 24% and 15% in extreme events contribution type 1 and 2 to total amount of precipitation, respectively. The difference between total normal type events was positive in this three decades compared with reference decade 1980-1990, varying positively from 4 to 6 thousand events included in normality by decade, these events was decreased in your majority of Class 1 events, which presented a decay of at least 3.500 events by each decade. This suggests an intensification of extreme events, considering that the amount of precipitation by class increased, and the number of events by class decreased. To Northeast region, an increasing in 9% of contribution to events type 3 class was observed, as well as in the frequency of this type of events (about of 700 more events). Major decreasing in number of classes extreme events occur in 2000-2010, to classes 1 and 3, with 7,2 and 5,6%, and by the end of century in class 3, with 4,5%. For the three analyzed decades a total decrease of 8.400 events was accounted. This first results support an increase in occurrence of determined extreme events classes/types of precipitation, but also an increase of precipitation in raining seasons in Amazon region, as well as an increase in the intensity of dry season in Northeast region.

Detection of significant differences between absorption spectra of neutral helium and low temperature photoionized helium plasmas

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bartnik, A.; Wachulak, P.; Fiedorowicz, H.

2013-11-15

In this work, spectral investigations of photoionized He plasmas were performed. The photoionized plasmas were created by irradiation of helium stream, with intense pulses from laser-plasma extreme ultraviolet (EUV) source. The EUV source was based on a double-stream Xe/Ne gas-puff target irradiated with 10 ns/10 J Nd:YAG laser pulses. The most intense emission from the source spanned a relatively narrow spectral region below 20 nm, however, spectrally integrated intensity at longer wavelengths was also significant. The EUV radiation was focused onto a gas stream, injected into a vacuum chamber synchronously with the EUV pulse. The long-wavelength part of the EUVmore » radiation was used for backlighting of the photoionized plasmas to obtain absorption spectra. Both emission and absorption spectra in the EUV range were investigated. Significant differences between absorption spectra acquired for neutral helium and low temperature photoionized plasmas were demonstrated for the first time. Strong increase of intensities and spectral widths of absorption lines, together with a red shift of the K-edge, was shown.« less

Influence of electron dynamics on the enhancement of double-pulse femtosecond laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy of fused silica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cao, Zhitao; Jiang, Lan; Wang, Sumei; Wang, Mengmeng; Liu, Lei; Yang, Fan; Lu, Yongfeng

2018-03-01

Femtosecond laser pulse train induced breakdown of fused silica was studied by investigating its plasma emission and the ablated crater morphology. It was demonstrated that the electron dynamics in the ablated fused silica play a dominant role in the emission intensity of induced plasma and the volume of material removal, corresponding to the evolution of free-electron, self-trapped excitons, and the phase change of the fused silica left over by the first pulse. For a fluence of 11 J/cm2, the maximum plasma intensity of double-pulse irradiation at an interpulse delay of 120 ps was about 35 times stronger than that of a single-pulse, while the ablated crater was reduced by 27% in volume. The ionization of slow plume component generated by the first pulse was found to be the main reason for the extremely high intensity enhancement for an interpulse delay of over 10 ps. The results serve as a route to simultaneously increase the spatial resolution and plasma intensity in laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy of dielectrics.

Spatial variability of extreme rainfall at radar subpixel scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peleg, Nadav; Marra, Francesco; Fatichi, Simone; Paschalis, Athanasios; Molnar, Peter; Burlando, Paolo

2018-01-01

Extreme rainfall is quantified in engineering practice using Intensity-Duration-Frequency curves (IDF) that are traditionally derived from rain-gauges and more recently also from remote sensing instruments, such as weather radars. These instruments measure rainfall at different spatial scales: rain-gauge samples rainfall at the point scale while weather radar averages precipitation on a relatively large area, generally around 1 km2. As such, a radar derived IDF curve is representative of the mean areal rainfall over a given radar pixel and neglects the within-pixel rainfall variability. In this study, we quantify subpixel variability of extreme rainfall by using a novel space-time rainfall generator (STREAP model) that downscales in space the rainfall within a given radar pixel. The study was conducted using a unique radar data record (23 years) and a very dense rain-gauge network in the Eastern Mediterranean area (northern Israel). Radar-IDF curves, together with an ensemble of point-based IDF curves representing the radar subpixel extreme rainfall variability, were developed fitting Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distributions to annual rainfall maxima. It was found that the mean areal extreme rainfall derived from the radar underestimate most of the extreme values computed for point locations within the radar pixel (on average, ∼70%). The subpixel variability of rainfall extreme was found to increase with longer return periods and shorter durations (e.g. from a maximum variability of 10% for a return period of 2 years and a duration of 4 h to 30% for 50 years return period and 20 min duration). For the longer return periods, a considerable enhancement of extreme rainfall variability was found when stochastic (natural) climate variability was taken into account. Bounding the range of the subpixel extreme rainfall derived from radar-IDF can be of major importance for different applications that require very local estimates of rainfall extremes.

[Outlier cases in surgical disciplines. Micro-economic and macro-economic problems].

PubMed

Tecklenburg, A; Liebeneiner, J; Schaefer, O

2009-09-01

Postoperative complications will always occur and the negative impact puts strain on patients, relatives and the attending physicians. The conversion to a remuneration system based on flat rates (diagnosis-related groups) presents additional economic problems for hospitals in some resource-intensive treatments. This particularly pertains to extremely cost-intensive cases in which costs succeed revenue by the factor of 2 and are often surgical procedures. Here the economic risk increases with the number of interventions performed. Despite improvements in the remuneration system this problem persists. An improved payment for these treatments is desirable. To achieve this it is necessary to systematically analyze the extremely cost-intensive cases by experts of different medical disciplines to create a data basis for a proposal of a cost-covering payment.

Water-Borne Diseases and Extreme Weather Events in Cambodia: Review of Impacts and Implications of Climate Change

PubMed Central

Davies, Grace I.; McIver, Lachlan; Kim, Yoonhee; Hashizume, Masahiro; Iddings, Steven; Chan, Vibol

2014-01-01

Cambodia is prone to extreme weather events, especially floods, droughts and typhoons. Climate change is predicted to increase the frequency and intensity of such events. The Cambodian population is highly vulnerable to the impacts of these events due to poverty; malnutrition; agricultural dependence; settlements in flood-prone areas, and public health, governance and technological limitations. Yet little is known about the health impacts of extreme weather events in Cambodia. Given the extremely low adaptive capacity of the population, this is a crucial knowledge gap. A literature review of the health impacts of floods, droughts and typhoons in Cambodia was conducted, with regional and global information reviewed where Cambodia-specific literature was lacking. Water-borne diseases are of particular concern in Cambodia, in the face of extreme weather events and climate change, due to, inter alia, a high pre-existing burden of diseases such as diarrhoeal illness and a lack of improved sanitation infrastructure in rural areas. A time-series analysis under quasi-Poisson distribution was used to evaluate the association between floods and diarrhoeal disease incidence in Cambodian children between 2001 and 2012 in 16 Cambodian provinces. Floods were significantly associated with increased diarrhoeal disease in two provinces, while the analysis conducted suggested a possible protective effect from toilets and piped water. Addressing the specific, local pre-existing vulnerabilities is vital to promoting population health resilience and strengthening adaptive capacity to extreme weather events and climate change in Cambodia. PMID:25546280

Water-borne diseases and extreme weather events in Cambodia: review of impacts and implications of climate change.

PubMed

Davies, Grace I; McIver, Lachlan; Kim, Yoonhee; Hashizume, Masahiro; Iddings, Steven; Chan, Vibol

2014-12-23

Cambodia is prone to extreme weather events, especially floods, droughts and typhoons. Climate change is predicted to increase the frequency and intensity of such events. The Cambodian population is highly vulnerable to the impacts of these events due to poverty; malnutrition; agricultural dependence; settlements in flood-prone areas, and public health, governance and technological limitations. Yet little is known about the health impacts of extreme weather events in Cambodia. Given the extremely low adaptive capacity of the population, this is a crucial knowledge gap. A literature review of the health impacts of floods, droughts and typhoons in Cambodia was conducted, with regional and global information reviewed where Cambodia-specific literature was lacking. Water-borne diseases are of particular concern in Cambodia, in the face of extreme weather events and climate change, due to, inter alia, a high pre-existing burden of diseases such as diarrhoeal illness and a lack of improved sanitation infrastructure in rural areas. A time-series analysis under quasi-Poisson distribution was used to evaluate the association between floods and diarrhoeal disease incidence in Cambodian children between 2001 and 2012 in 16 Cambodian provinces. Floods were significantly associated with increased diarrhoeal disease in two provinces, while the analysis conducted suggested a possible protective effect from toilets and piped water. Addressing the specific, local pre-existing vulnerabilities is vital to promoting population health resilience and strengthening adaptive capacity to extreme weather events and climate change in Cambodia.

Climate change and natural disasters: integrating science and practice to protect health.

PubMed

Sauerborn, Rainer; Ebi, Kristie

2012-12-17

Hydro-meteorological disasters are the focus of this paper. The authors examine, to which extent climate change increases their frequency and intensity. Review of IPCC-projections of climate-change related extreme weather events and related literature on health effects. Projections show that climate change is likely to increase the frequency, intensity, duration, and spatial distribution of a range of extreme weather events over coming decades. There is a need for strengthened collaboration between climate scientists, the health researchers and policy-makers as well as the disaster community to jointly develop adaptation strategies to protect human.

Biomechanical Analysis of the Closed Kinetic Chain Upper-Extremity Stability Test.

PubMed

Tucci, Helga T; Felicio, Lilian R; McQuade, Kevin J; Bevilaqua-Grossi, Debora; Camarini, Paula Maria Ferreira; Oliveira, Anamaria S

2017-01-01

The closed kinetic chain upper-extremity stability (CKCUES) test is a functional test for the upper extremity performed in the push-up position, where individuals support their body weight on 1 hand placed on the ground and swing the opposite hand until touching the hand on the ground, then switch hands and repeat the process as fast as possible for 15 s. To study scapular kinematic and kinetic measures during the CKCUES test for 3 different distances between hands. Experimental. Laboratory. 30 healthy individuals (15 male, 15 female). Participants performed 3 repetitions of the test at 3 distance conditions: original (36 in), interacromial, and 150% interacromial distance between hands. Participants completed a questionnaire on pain intensity and perceived exertion before and after the procedures. Scapular internal/external rotation, upward/downward rotation, and posterior/anterior tilting kinematics and kinetic data on maximum force and time to maximum force were measured bilaterally in all participants. Percentage of body weight on upper extremities was calculated. Data analyses were based on the total numbers of hand touches performed for each distance condition, and scapular kinematics and kinetic values were averaged over the 3 trials. Scapular kinematics, maximum force, and time to maximum force were compared for the 3 distance conditions within each gender. Significance level was set at α = .05. Scapular internal rotation, posterior tilting, and upward rotation were significantly greater in the dominant side for both genders. Scapular upward rotation was significantly greater in original distance than interacromial distance in swing phase. Time to maximum force in women was significantly greater in the dominant side. CKCUES test kinematic and kinetic measures were not different among 3 conditions based on distance between hands. However, the test might not be suitable for initial or mild-level rehabilitation due to its challenging requirements.

High-Resolution Dynamical Downscaling Ensemble Projections of Future Extreme Temperature Distributions for the United States

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zobel, Zachary; Wang, Jiali; Wuebbles, Donald J.

The aim of this study is to examine projections of extreme temperatures over the continental United States (CONUS) for the 21st century using an ensemble of high spatial resolution dynamically downscaled model simulations with different boundary conditions. The downscaling uses the Weather Research and Forecast model at a spatial resolution of 12 km along with outputs from three different Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 global climate models that provide boundary con- ditions under two different future greenhouse gas (GHG) concentration trajectories. The results from two decadal-length time slices (2045–2054 and 2085–2094) are compared with a historical decade (1995–2004). Probabilitymore » density functions of daily maximum/minimum temperatures are analyzed over seven climatologically cohesive regions of the CONUS. The impacts of different boundary conditions as well as future GHG concentrations on extreme events such as heat waves and days with temperature higher than 95°F are also investigated. The results show that the intensity of extreme warm temperature in future summer is significantly increased, while the frequency of extreme cold temperature in future winter decreases. The distribution of summer daily maximum temperature experiences a significant warm-side shift and increased variability, while the distribution of winter daily minimum temperature is projected to have a less significant warm-side shift with decreased variability. Finally, using "business-as-usual" scenario, 5-day heat waves are projected to occur at least 5–10 times per year in most CONUS and ≥ 95°F days will increase by 1–2 months by the end of the century.« less

High Resolution Simulation of a Colorado Rockies Extreme Snow and Rain Event in both a Current and Future Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rasmussen, Roy; Ikeda, Kyoko; Liu, Changhai; Gutmann, Ethan; Gochis, David

2016-04-01

Modeling of extreme weather events often require very finely resolved treatment of atmospheric circulation structures in order to produce and localize the large moisture fluxes that result in extreme precipitation. This is particularly true for cool season orographic precipitation processes where the representation of the landform can significantly impact vertical velocity profiles and cloud moisture entrainment rates. This study presents results for high resolution regional climate modeling study of the Colorado Headwaters region using an updated version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model run at 4 km horizontal resolution and a hydrological extension package called WRF-Hydro. Previous work has shown that the WRF modeling system can produce credible depictions of winter orographic precipitation over the Colorado Rockies if run at horizontal resolutions < 6 km. Here we present results from a detailed study of an extreme springtime snowfall event that occurred along the Colorado Front Range in March 2003. Results from the impact of warming on total precipitation, snow-rain partitioning and surface hydrological fluxes (evapotranspiration and runoff) will be discussed in the context of how potential changes in temperature impact the amount of precipitation, the phase of precipitation (rain vs. snow) and the timing and amplitude of streamflow responses. The results show using the Pseudo Global Warming technique that intense precipitation rates significantly increased during the event and a significant fraction of the snowfall converts to rain which significantly amplifies the runoff response from one where runoff is produced gradually to one in which runoff is rapidly translated into streamflow values that approach significant flooding risks. Results from a new, CONUS scale high resolution climate simulation of extreme events in a current and future climate will be presented as time permits.

Determining hydroclimatic extreme events over the south-central Andes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

RamezaniZiarani, Maryam; Bookhagen, Bodo; Schmidt, Torsten; Wickert, Jens; de la Torre, Alejandro; Volkholz, Jan

2017-04-01

The south-central Andes in NW Argentina are characterized by a strong rainfall asymmetry. In the east-west direction exists one of the steepest rainfall gradients on Earth, resulting from the large topographic differences in this region. In addition, in the north-south direction the rainfall intensity varies as the climatic regime shifts from the tropical central Andes to the subtropical south-central Andes. In this study, we investigate hydroclimatic extreme events over the south-central Andes using ERA-Interim reanalysis data of the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts), the high resolution regional climate model (COSMO-CLM) data and TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) data. We divide the area in three different study regions based on elevation: The high-elevation Altiplano-Puna plateau, an intermediate area characterized by intramontane basins, and the foreland area. We analyze the correlations between climatic variables, such as specific humidity, zonal wind component, meridional wind component and extreme rainfall events in all three domains. The results show that there is a high positive temporal correlation between extreme rainfall events (90th and 99th percentile rainfall) and extreme specific humidity events (90th and 99th percentile specific humidity). In addition, the temporal variations analysis represents a trend of increasing specific humidity with time during time period (1994-2013) over the Altiplano-Puna plateau which is in agreement with rainfall trend. Regarding zonal winds, our results indicate that 99th percentile rainfall events over the Altiplano-Puna plateau coincide temporally with strong easterly winds from intermountain and foreland regions in the east. In addition, the results regarding the meridional wind component represent strong northerly winds in the foreland region coincide temporally with 99th percentile rainfall over the Altiplano-Puna plateau.

High-Resolution Dynamical Downscaling Ensemble Projections of Future Extreme Temperature Distributions for the United States

DOE PAGES

Zobel, Zachary; Wang, Jiali; Wuebbles, Donald J.; ...

2017-11-20

The aim of this study is to examine projections of extreme temperatures over the continental United States (CONUS) for the 21st century using an ensemble of high spatial resolution dynamically downscaled model simulations with different boundary conditions. The downscaling uses the Weather Research and Forecast model at a spatial resolution of 12 km along with outputs from three different Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 global climate models that provide boundary con- ditions under two different future greenhouse gas (GHG) concentration trajectories. The results from two decadal-length time slices (2045–2054 and 2085–2094) are compared with a historical decade (1995–2004). Probabilitymore » density functions of daily maximum/minimum temperatures are analyzed over seven climatologically cohesive regions of the CONUS. The impacts of different boundary conditions as well as future GHG concentrations on extreme events such as heat waves and days with temperature higher than 95°F are also investigated. The results show that the intensity of extreme warm temperature in future summer is significantly increased, while the frequency of extreme cold temperature in future winter decreases. The distribution of summer daily maximum temperature experiences a significant warm-side shift and increased variability, while the distribution of winter daily minimum temperature is projected to have a less significant warm-side shift with decreased variability. Finally, using "business-as-usual" scenario, 5-day heat waves are projected to occur at least 5–10 times per year in most CONUS and ≥ 95°F days will increase by 1–2 months by the end of the century.« less

Comparison of Water and Nutrient Cycles in the North China Plain and U.S. High Plains related to Climate Forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scanlon, B. R.; Pei, H.; Shen, Y.

2014-12-01

The North China Plain (NCP) and U.S. High Plains play critical roles in food production, which relies heavily on groundwater resources for irrigation and nutrients. Here we evaluate food production in terms of resource availability (water and nutrients) and impacts on resources (groundwater quantity and quality) within the context of climate forcing. Double cropping of corn and wheat in the NCP under intensive irrigation (80 - 90% of cropland) and massive N fertilization (384 kg/ha) resulted in total corn plus wheat yields of 13.4 kg/ha (2002 - 2011). In contrast, single cropping of corn on the USHP under less intensive irrigation (40% of cropland) and N fertilization (90 kg/ha) resulted in only 15% lower yield in the USHP (11.7 kg/ha) than in the NCP. However, irrigation essentially decouples crop production from climate extremes. Average corn and wheat yield in the NCP over the past three decades is not correlated with precipitation. Irrigated corn yield in the north and central USHP was actually higher during the recent 2012 drought by up to ~ 30% relative to the 30 year long-term mean yield whereas rainfed corn yield decreased by ~50% during the drought. The main impact of climate extremes on the aquifers is indirect through increased irrigation pumpage for crop production rather than direct through changes in recharge. Effects of crop production on groundwater quality should be much greater in the NCP because of ~4 times higher fertilizer application relative to that in the USHP. Field research experiments in the NCP indicate that much of this fertilizer application (> 200 kg N/ha) does not impact yield and could potentially leach into underlying aquifers. Projected groundwater depletion in these aquifers should result in a shift from intensive irrigation to more rainfed crop production, increasing vulnerability of crop production to climate extremes.

A 24-year-old male with a painful and cold lower extremity.

PubMed

Robinson, Eric A; Khalpey, Zain I; Janardhanan, Rajesh

2017-05-01

A 24-year-old male presented to the emergency department with intense pain in his right lower extremity. He has a medical history significant for systemic lupus erythematosus and antiphospholipid syndrome. He also had four prior episodes of deep venous thromboses on rivaroxaban. The patient stated that early in the morning, he started to feel intense pain that started from his knee and progressed to his calf, with associated numbness and paraesthesia. On physical examination, the limb felt cold with absent right popliteal and dorsalis pedis pulses. He was immediately taken for embolectomy after discovery of a distal common femoral artery occlusion. The patient's blood cultures remained negative. X-plane imaging on real-time three-dimensional transoesophageal echocardiography (RT-3DTEE) of the aortic valve (figure 1A) and colour Doppler (figure 1B) are shown. What is the diagnosis and management for this patient (assuming the patient will stay anticoagulated for life)? Infective endocarditis (IE); antibiotics and valve replacementLibman-Sacks endocarditis; corticosteroidsIE; antibiotics onlyLibman-Sacks endocarditis; valve replacementLibman-Sacks endocarditis; continuing anticoagulation only heartjnl;103/10/765/HEARTJNL2016310872F1F1HEARTJNL2016310872F1Figure 1Visualisation of the aortic valve on (A) X-plane imaging on real-time three-dimensional transoesophageal echocardiography (RT-3DTEE) and (B) colour Doppler. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

[Effects of functional electrical therapy on upper extremity functional motor recovery in patients after stroke--our experience and future directions].

PubMed

Plavsić, Aleksandra; Svirtlih, Laslo; Stefanović, Aleksandra; Jović, Stevan; Durović, Aleksandar; Popović, Mirjana

2011-01-01

New neurorehabilitation together with conventional techniques provide methods and technologies for maximizing what is preserved from the sensory motor system after cerebrovascular insult. The rehabilitation technique named functional electrical therapy was investigated in more than 60 patients in acute, subacute and chronic phase after cerebrovascular insult. The functional sensory information generated by functional electrical therapy was hypothesized to result in the intensive functional brain training of the activities performed. Functional electrical therapy is a combination of functional exercise and electrical therapy. The functional electrical therapy protocol comprises voluntary movement of the paretic arm in synchrony with the electrically assisted hand functions in order to perform typical daily activities. The daily treatment of 30 minutes lasts three weeks. The outcome measures include several tests for the evaluation of arm/hand functionality: upper extremity function test, drawing test, modified Aschworth scale, motor activity log and passive range of movement. Results from our several clinical studies showed that functional electrical therapy, if applied in acute and subacute stroke patients, leads to faster and greater improvement of functioning of the hemiplegic arm/hand compared to the control group. The outcomes were significantly superior at all times after the treatment for the higher functioning group. Additional well-planned clinical studies are needed to determine the adequate dose of treatment (timing, duration, intensity) with functional electrical therapy regarding the patient's status. A combination with other techniques should be further investigated.

Learning to love the rain in Bergen (Norway) and other lessons from a Climate Services neophyte

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sobolowski, Stefan; Wakker, Joyce

2014-05-01

A question that is often asked of regional climate modelers generally, and Climate Service providers specifically, is: "What is the added-value of regional climate simulations and how can I use this information?" The answer is, unsurprisingly, not straightforward and depends greatly on what one needs to know. In particular it is important for scientist to communicate directly with the users of this information to determine what kind of information is important for them to do their jobs. This study is part of the ECLISE project (Enabling Climate Information Services for Europe) and involves a user at the municipality of Bergen's (Norway) water and drainage administration and a provider from Uni Research and the Bjerknes Center for Climate Research. The water and drain administration is responsible for communicating potential future changes in extreme precipitation, particularly short-term high-intensity rainfall, which is common in Bergen and making recommendations to the engineering department for changes in design criteria. Thus, information that enables better decision-making is crucial. This study then actually has two relevant components for climate services: 1) is a scientific exercise to evaluate the performance of high resolution regional climate simulations and their ability to reproduce high intensity short duration precipitation and 2) an exercise in communication between a provider community and user community with different concerns, mandates, methodological approaches and even vocabularies. A set of Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) simulations was run at high resolution (8km) over a large domain covering much of Scandinavia and Northern Europe. One simulation was driven by so-called "perfect" boundary conditions taken from reanalysis data (ERA-interim, 1989-2010) the second and third simulations used Norway's global climate model as boundary forcing (NorESM) and were run for a historical period (1950-2005) and a 30yr. end of the century time slice under the rcp4.5 "middle of the road" emissions scenario (2071-2100). A unique feature of the WRF modeling system is the ability to write data for selected locations at every time step, thus creating time series of very high temporal resolution which can be compared to observations. This high temporal resolution also allowed us to directly calculate intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves for intense precipitation of short to long duration (5 minutes - 1 day) for a number of return periods (2-100 years) with out resorting to factors to calculate rainfall intensities at higher temporal resolutions, as is commonly done. We investigated the IDF curves using a number of parametric and non-parametric approaches. Given the relatively short time periods of the modeled data the standard Gumble approach is presented here. This is also done to maintain consistency with previous calculations by the water and drain administration. Curves were also generated from observed time series at two locations in Bergen. Both the historical, GCM-driven simulation and the ERA-interim driven simulation closely match the observed IDF curves for all return periods up to durations of about 10 minutes where WRF then fails to reproduce the very short, very high intensity events. IDF curves under future conditions were also generated and the changes were compared with the current standard approach of applying climate change-factors to observed extreme precipitation in order to account for structural errors in global and regional climate models. Our investigation suggests that high-resolution regional simulations can capture many of the topographic features and dynamical processes necessary to accurately model extreme rainfall, even in at highly local scales and over complex terrain such as Bergen, Norway. The exercise also produced many lessons for climate service providers and users alike.

Assessment of Observational Uncertainty in Extreme Precipitation Events over the Continental United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Slinskey, E. A.; Loikith, P. C.; Waliser, D. E.; Goodman, A.

2017-12-01

Extreme precipitation events are associated with numerous societal and environmental impacts. Furthermore, anthropogenic climate change is projected to alter precipitation intensity across portions of the Continental United States (CONUS). Therefore, a spatial understanding and intuitive means of monitoring extreme precipitation over time is critical. Towards this end, we apply an event-based indicator, developed as a part of NASA's support of the ongoing efforts of the US National Climate Assessment, which assigns categories to extreme precipitation events based on 3-day storm totals as a basis for dataset intercomparison. To assess observational uncertainty across a wide range of historical precipitation measurement approaches, we intercompare in situ station data from the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN), satellite-derived precipitation data from NASA's Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), gridded in situ station data from the Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM), global reanalysis from NASA's Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis version 2 (MERRA 2), and regional reanalysis with gauge data assimilation from NCEP's North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR). Results suggest considerable variability across the five-dataset suite in the frequency, spatial extent, and magnitude of extreme precipitation events. Consistent with expectations, higher resolution datasets were found to resemble station data best and capture a greater frequency of high-end extreme events relative to lower spatial resolution datasets. The degree of dataset agreement varies regionally, however all datasets successfully capture the seasonal cycle of precipitation extremes across the CONUS. These intercomparison results provide additional insight about observational uncertainty and the ability of a range of precipitation measurement and analysis products to capture extreme precipitation event climatology. While the event category threshold is fixed in this analysis, preliminary results from the development of a flexible categorization scheme, that scales with grid resolution, are presented.

Frequency of extreme weather events and increased risk of motor vehicle collision in Maryland.

PubMed

Liu, Ann; Soneja, Sutyajeet I; Jiang, Chengsheng; Huang, Chanjuan; Kerns, Timothy; Beck, Kenneth; Mitchell, Clifford; Sapkota, Amir

2017-02-15

Previous studies have shown increased precipitation to be associated with higher frequency of traffic collisions. However, data regarding how extreme weather events, projected to grow in frequency, intensity, and duration in response to a changing climate, might affect the risk of motor vehicle collisions is particularly limited. We investigated the association between frequency of extreme heat and precipitation events and risk of motor vehicle collision in Maryland between 2000 and 2012. Motor vehicle collision data was obtained from the Maryland Automated Accident Reporting System. Each observation in the data set corresponded to a unique collision event. This data was linked to extreme heat and precipitation events that were calculated using location and calendar day specific thresholds. A time-stratified case-crossover analysis was utilized to assess the association between exposure to extreme heat and precipitation events and risk of motor vehicle collision. Additional stratified analyses examined risk by road condition, season, and collisions involving only one vehicle. Overall, there were over 1.28 million motor vehicle collisions recorded in Maryland between 2000 and 2012, of which 461,009 involved injuries or death. There was a 23% increase in risk of collision for every 1-day increase in extreme precipitation event (Odds Ratios (OR) 1.23, 95% Confidence Interval (CI): 1.22, 1.27). This risk was considerably higher for collisions on roads with a defect or obstruction (OR: 1.46, 95% CI: 1.40, 1.52) and those involving a single vehicle (OR: 1.41, 95% CI: 1.39, 1.43). Change in risk associated with extreme heat events was marginal at best. Extreme precipitation events are associated with an increased risk of motor vehicle collisions in Maryland. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Using Extreme Tropical Precipitation Statistics to Constrain Future Climate States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Igel, M.; Biello, J. A.

2017-12-01

Tropical precipitation is characterized by a rapid growth in mean intensity as the column humidity increases. This behavior is examined in both a cloud resolving model and with high-resolution observations of precipitation and column humidity from CloudSat and AIRS, respectively. The model and the observations exhibit remarkable consistency and suggest a new paradigm for extreme precipitation. We show that the total precipitation can be decomposed into a product of contributions from a mean intensity, a probability of precipitation, and a global PDF of column humidity values. We use the modeling and observational results to suggest simple, analytic forms for each of these functions. The analytic representations are then used to construct a simple expression for the global accumulated precipitation as a function of the parameters of each of the component functions. As the climate warms, extreme precipitation intensity and global precipitation are expected to increase, though at different rates. When these predictions are incorporated into the new analytic expression for total precipitation, predictions for changes due to global warming to the probability of precipitation and the PDF of column humidity can be made. We show that strong constraints can be imposed on the future shape of the PDF of column humidity but that only weak constraints can be set on the probability of precipitation. These are largely imposed by the intensification of extreme precipitation. This result suggests that understanding precisely how extreme precipitation responds to climate warming is critical to predicting other impactful properties of global hydrology. The new framework can also be used to confirm and discount existing theories for shifting precipitation.

Using damage data to estimate the risk from summer convective precipitation extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schroeer, Katharina; Tye, Mari

2017-04-01

This study explores the potential added value from including loss and damage data to understand the risks from high-intensity short-duration convective precipitation events. Projected increases in these events are expected even in regions that are likely to become more arid. Such high intensity precipitation events can trigger hazardous flash floods, debris flows, and landslides that put people and local assets at risk. However, the assessment of local scale precipitation extremes is hampered by its high spatial and temporal variability. In addition to this, not only are extreme events rare, but such small-scale events are likely to be underreported where they do not coincide with the observation network. Reports of private loss and damage on a local administrative unit scale (LAU 2 level) are used to explore the relationship between observed rainfall events and damages reportedly related to hydro-meteorological processes. With 480 Austrian municipalities located within our south-eastern Alpine study region, the damage data are available on a much smaller scale than the available rainfall data. Precipitation is recorded daily at 185 gauges and 52% of these stations additionally deliver sub-hourly rainfall information. To obtain physically plausible information, damage and rainfall data are grouped and analyzed on a catchment scale. The data indicate that rainfall intensities are higher on days that coincide with a damage claim than on days for which no damage was reported. However, approximately one third of the damages related to hydro-meteorological hazards were claimed on days for which no rainfall was recorded at any gauge in the respective catchment. Our goal is to assess whether these events indicate potential extreme events missing in the observations. Damage always is a consequence of an asset being exposed and susceptible to a hazardous process, and naturally, many factors influence whether an extreme rainfall event causes damage. We set up a statistical model to test whether the relationship between extreme rainfall events and damages is robust enough to estimate a potential underrepresentation of high intensity rainfall events in ungauged areas. Risk-relevant factors of socio-economic vulnerability, land cover, streamflow data, and weather type information are included to improve and sharpen the analysis. Within this study, we first aim to identify which rainfall events are most damaging and which factors affect the damages - seen as a proxy for the vulnerability - related to summer convective rainfall extremes in different catchment types. Secondly, we aim to detect potentially unreported damaging rainfall events and estimate the likelihood of such cases. We anticipate this damage perspective on summertime extreme convective precipitation to be beneficial for risk assessment, uncertainty management, and decision making with respect to weather and climate extremes on the regional-to-local level.

Exercise Guidelines to Promote Cardiometabolic Health in Spinal Cord Injured Humans: Time to Raise the Intensity?

PubMed

Nightingale, Tom E; Metcalfe, Richard S; Vollaard, Niels B; Bilzon, James L

2017-08-01

Spinal cord injury (SCI) is a life-changing event that, as a result of paralysis, negatively influences habitual levels of physical activity and hence cardiometabolic health. Performing regular structured exercise therefore appears extremely important in persons with SCI. However, exercise options are mainly limited to the upper body, which involves a smaller activated muscle mass compared with the mainly leg-based activities commonly performed by nondisabled individuals. Current exercise guidelines for SCI focus predominantly on relative short durations of moderate-intensity aerobic upper-body exercise, yet contemporary evidence suggests this is not sufficient to induce meaningful improvements in risk factors for the prevention of cardiometabolic disease in this population. As such, these guidelines and their physiological basis require reappraisal. In this special communication, we propose that high-intensity interval training (HIIT) may be a viable alternative exercise strategy to promote vigorous-intensity exercise and prevent cardiometabolic disease in persons with SCI. Supplementing the limited data from SCI cohorts with consistent findings from studies in nondisabled populations, we present strong evidence to suggest that HIIT is superior to moderate-intensity aerobic exercise for improving cardiorespiratory fitness, insulin sensitivity, and vascular function. The potential application and safety of HIIT in this population is also discussed. We conclude that increasing exercise intensity could offer a simple, readily available, time-efficient solution to improve cardiometabolic health in persons with SCI. We call for high-quality randomized controlled trials to examine the efficacy and safety of HIIT in this population. Copyright © 2017 American Congress of Rehabilitation Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A nonstationary analysis for the Northern Adriatic extreme sea levels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Masina, Marinella; Lamberti, Alberto

2013-09-01

The historical data from the Trieste, Venice, Porto Corsini, and Rimini tide gauges have been used to investigate the spatial and temporal changes in extreme high water levels in the Northern Adriatic. A detailed analysis of annual mean sea level evolution at the three longest operating stations shows a coherent behavior both on a regional and global scale. A slight increase in magnitude of extreme water elevations, after the removal of the regularized annual mean sea level necessary to eliminate the effect of local subsidence and sea level rise, is found at the Venice and Porto Corsini stations. It seems to be mainly associated with a wind regime change occurred in the 1990s, due to an intensification of Bora wind events after their decrease in frequency and intensity during the second half of the 20th century. The extreme values, adjusted for the annual mean sea level trend, are modeled using a time-dependent GEV distribution. The inclusion of seasonality in the GEV parameters considerably improves the data fitting. The interannual fluctuations of the detrended monthly maxima exhibit a significant correlation with the variability of the large-scale atmospheric circulation represented by the North Atlantic Oscillation and Arctic Oscillation indices. The different coast exposure to the Bora and Sirocco winds and their seasonal character explain the various seasonal patterns of extreme sea levels observed at the tide gauges considered in the present analysis.

Spatial distribution of precipitation extremes in Norway

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verpe Dyrrdal, Anita; Skaugen, Thomas; Lenkoski, Alex; Thorarinsdottir, Thordis; Stordal, Frode; Førland, Eirik J.

2015-04-01

Estimates of extreme precipitation, in terms of return levels, are crucial in planning and design of important infrastructure. Through two separate studies, we have examined the levels and spatial distribution of daily extreme precipitation over catchments in Norway, and hourly extreme precipitation in a point. The analyses were carried out through the development of two new methods for estimating extreme precipitation in Norway. For daily precipitation we fit the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution to areal time series from a gridded dataset, consisting of daily precipitation during the period 1957-today with a resolution of 1x1 km². This grid-based method is more objective and less manual and time-consuming compared to the existing method at MET Norway. In addition, estimates in ungauged catchments are easier to obtain, and the GEV approach includes a measure of uncertainty, which is a requirement in climate studies today. Further, we go into depth on the debated GEV shape parameter, which plays an important role for longer return periods. We show that it varies according to dominating precipitation types, having positive values in the southeast and negative values in the southwest. We also find indications that the degree of orographic enhancement might affect the shape parameter. For hourly precipitation, we estimate return levels on a 1x1 km² grid, by linking GEV distributions with latent Gaussian fields in a Bayesian hierarchical model (BHM). Generalized linear models on the GEV parameters, estimated from observations, are able to incorporate location-specific geographic and meteorological information and thereby accommodate these effects on extreme precipitation. Gaussian fields capture additional unexplained spatial heterogeneity and overcome the sparse grid on which observations are collected, while a Bayesian model averaging component directly assesses model uncertainty. We find that mean summer precipitation, mean summer temperature, latitude, longitude, mean annual precipitation and elevation are good covariate candidates for hourly precipitation in our model. Summer indices succeed because hourly precipitation extremes often occur during the convective season. The spatial distribution of hourly and daily precipitation differs in Norway. Daily precipitation extremes are larger along the southwestern coast, where large-scale frontal systems dominate during fall season and the mountain ridge generates strong orographic enhancement. The largest hourly precipitation extremes are mostly produced by intense convective showers during summer, and are thus found along the entire southern coast, including the Oslo-region.

A comparison of observed extreme water levels at the German Bight elaborated through an extreme value analysis (EVA) with extremes derived from a regionally coupled ocean-atmospheric climate model (MPI-OM)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Möller, Jens; Heinrich, Hartmut

2017-04-01

As a consequence of climate change atmospheric and oceanographic extremes and their potential impacts on coastal regions are of growing concern for governmental authorities responsible for the transportation infrastructure. Highest risks for shipping as well as for rail and road traffic originate from combined effects of extremes of storm surges and heavy rainfall which sometimes lead to insufficient dewatering of inland waterways. The German Ministry of Transport and digital Infrastructure therefore has tasked its Network of Experts to investigate the possible evolutions of extreme threats for low lands and especially for Kiel Canal, which is an important shortcut for shipping between the North and Baltic Seas. In this study we present results of a comparison of an Extreme Value Analysis (EVA) carried out on gauge observations and values derived from a coupled Regional Ocean-Atmosphere Climate Model (MPI-OM). High water levels at the coasts of the North and Baltic Seas are one of the most important hazards which increase the risk of flooding of the low-lying land and prevents such areas from an adequate dewatering. In this study changes in the intensity (magnitude of the extremes) and duration of extreme water levels (above a selected threshold) are investigated for several gauge stations with data partly reaching back to 1843. Different methods are used for the extreme value statistics, (1) a stationary general Pareto distribution (GPD) model as well as (2) an instationary statistical model for better reproduction of the impact of climate change. Most gauge stations show an increase of the mean water level of about 1-2 mm/year, with a stronger increase of the highest water levels and a decrease (or lower increase) of the lowest water levels. Also, the duration of possible dewatering time intervals for the Kiel-Canal was analysed. The results for the historical gauge station observations are compared to the statistics of modelled water levels from the coupled atmosphere-ocean climate model MPI-OM for the time interval from 1951 to 2000. We demonstrate that for high water levels the observations and MPI-OM results are in good agreement, and we provide an estimate on the decreasing dewatering potential for Kiel Canal until the end of the 21st century.

Paleo-event data standards for dendrochronology

Treesearch

Elaine Kennedy Sutherland; P. Brewer; W. Gross

2017-01-01

Extreme environmental events, such as storm winds, landslides, insect infestations, and wildfire, cause loss of life, resources, and human infrastructure. Disaster riskreduction analysis can be improved with information about past frequency, intensity, and spatial patterns of extreme events. Tree-ring analyses can provide such information: tree rings reflect events as...

Very exceptional cases of VLF/LF ionospheric perturbations for deep oceanic earthquakes offshore the Japan island

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yamaguchi, Hiroki; Hayakawa, Masashi

2015-12-01

It is so far believed that ionospheric perturbations as detected by subionospheric VLF/LF (very low frequency/low frequency) propagation, are generated above and around the earthquake (EQ) epicenter. This paper presents very rare cases, which are in complete contrast to the above fact. We have found that in extremely rare cases when EQs happened (i) in the Pacific Ocean or (ii) offshore the Soya cape (Hokkaido) both with very large depths (300-400 km), corresponding ionospheric perturbations take place far away from the EQ epicenter and above the regions with considerable seismic intensity at the time of each EQ. Two EQs happened in the Torishima area of Izu islands (magnitude ∼7 and depth ∼400 km), and corresponding seismic intensity was observed in the Tokyo and Ibaraki districts. Our VLF data have indicated that the ionospheric perturbation takes place over such regions with high seismic intensity. Another group is two EQs (magnitude ∼5) offshore the Soya cape of Hokkaido, and the spatial distribution of seismic intensity at the time of each EQ is just around Aomori prefecture. VLF data have indicated the ionospheric perturbations taken place over the same Aomori area, which is in complete coincidence with the spatial distribution of seismic intensity. As a conclusion, these exceptional examples are, in principle, very similar to the concept of 'selectivity' (or sensitive zone) of geoelectric measurement by the Greek group, and we try to interpret these cases in the context of lithosphere-atmosphere-ionosphere coupling.

Robust increase in extreme summer rainfall intensity during the past four decades observed in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xiao, Chan; Wu, Peili; Zhang, Lixia; Song, Lianchun

2016-12-01

Global warming increases the moisture holding capacity of the atmosphere and consequently the potential risks of extreme rainfall. Here we show that maximum hourly summer rainfall intensity has increased by about 11.2% on average, using continuous hourly gauge records for 1971-2013 from 721 weather stations in China. The corresponding event accumulated precipitation has on average increased by more than 10% aided by a small positive trend in events duration. Linear regression of the 95th percentile daily precipitation intensity with daily mean surface air temperature shows a negative scaling of -9.6%/K, in contrast to a positive scaling of 10.6%/K for hourly data. This is made up of a positive scaling below the summer mean temperature and a negative scaling above. Using seasonal means instead of daily means, we find a consistent scaling rate for the region of 6.7-7%/K for both daily and hourly precipitation extremes, about 10% higher than the regional Clausius-Clapeyron scaling of 6.1%/K based on a mean temperature of 24.6 °C. With up to 18% further increase in extreme precipitation under continuing global warming towards the IPCC’s 1.5 °C target, risks of flash floods will exacerbate on top of the current incapability of urban drainage systems in a rapidly urbanizing China.

Dust models post-Planck: constraining the far-infrared opacity of dust in the diffuse interstellar medium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fanciullo, L.; Guillet, V.; Aniano, G.; Jones, A. P.; Ysard, N.; Miville-Deschênes, M.-A.; Boulanger, F.; Köhler, M.

2015-08-01

Aims: We compare the performance of several dust models in reproducing the dust spectral energy distribution (SED) per unit extinction in the diffuse interstellar medium (ISM). We use our results to constrain the variability of the optical properties of big grains in the diffuse ISM, as published by the Planck collaboration. Methods: We use two different techniques to compare the predictions of dust models to data from the Planck HFI, IRAS, and SDSS surveys. First, we fit the far-infrared emission spectrum to recover the dust extinction and the intensity of the interstellar radiation field (ISRF). Second, we infer the ISRF intensity from the total power emitted by dust per unit extinction, and then predict the emission spectrum. In both cases, we test the ability of the models to reproduce dust emission and extinction at the same time. Results: We identify two issues. Not all models can reproduce the average dust emission per unit extinction: there are differences of up to a factor ~2 between models, and the best accord between model and observation is obtained with the more emissive grains derived from recent laboratory data on silicates and amorphous carbons. All models fail to reproduce the variations in the emission per unit extinction if the only variable parameter is the ISRF intensity: this confirms that the optical properties of dust are indeed variable in the diffuse ISM. Conclusions: Diffuse ISM observations are consistent with a scenario where both ISRF intensity and dust optical properties vary. The ratio of the far-infrared opacity to the V band extinction cross-section presents variations of the order of ~20% (40-50% in extreme cases), while ISRF intensity varies by ~30% (~60% in extreme cases). This must be accounted for in future modelling. Appendices are available in electronic form at http://www.aanda.org

Space weather influence on the agriculture technology and wheat prices in the medieval England (1259-1703) through cosmic ray/solar activity cycle variations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dorman, L. I.; Pustil'Nik, L. A.; Yom Din, G.

2003-04-01

The database of Professor Rogers (1887), which includes wheat prices in England in the Middle Ages (1249-1703) was used to search for possible manifestations of solar activity and cosmic ray intensity variations. The main object of our statistical analysis is investigation of bursts of prices. Our study shows that bursts and troughs of wheat prices take place at extreme states (maximums or minimums) of solar activity cycles. We present a conceptual model of possible modes for sensitivity of wheat prices to weather conditions, caused by cosmic ray intensity solar cycle variations, and compare the expected price fluctuations with wheat price variations recorded in the Medieval England. We compared statistical properties of the intervals between price bursts with statistical properties of the intervals between extremes (minimums) of solar cycles during the years 1700-2000. The medians of both samples have the values of 11.00 and 10.7 years; standard deviations are 1.44 and 1.53 years for prices and for solar activity, respectively. The hypothesis that the frequency distributions are the same for both of the samples have significance level >95%. In the next step we analyzed direct links between wheat prices and cosmic ray cycle variations in the 17th Century, for which both wheat prices and cosmic ray intensity (derived from Be-10 isotope data) are available. We show that for all seven solar activity minimums (cosmic ray intensity maximums) the observed prices were higher than prices for the seven intervals of maximal solar activity (100% sign correlation). This result, combined with the conclusion of similarity of statistical properties of the price and solar activity extremes can be considered as direct evidence of a causal connection between wheat prices bursts and solar activity/cosmic ray intensity extremes.

Trends and periodicity of daily temperature and precipitation extremes during 1960-2013 in Hunan Province, central south China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Ajiao; He, Xinguang; Guan, Huade; Cai, Yi

2018-04-01

In this study, the trends and periodicity in climate extremes are examined in Hunan Province over the period 1960-2013 on the basis of 27 extreme climate indices calculated from daily temperature and precipitation records at 89 meteorological stations. The results show that in the whole province, temperature extremes exhibit a warming trend with more than 50% stations being statistically significant for 7 out of 16 temperature indices, and the nighttime temperature increases faster than the daytime temperature at the annual scale. The changes in most extreme temperature indices show strongly coherent spatial patterns. Moreover, the change rates of almost all temperature indices in north Hunan are greater than those of other regions. However, the statistically significant changes in indices of extreme precipitation are observed at fewer stations than in extreme temperature indices, forming less spatially coherent patterns. Positive trends in indices of extreme precipitation show that the amount and intensity of extreme precipitation events are generally increasing in both annual and seasonal scales, whereas the significant downward trend in consecutive wet days indicates that the precipitation becomes more even over the study period. Analysis of changes in probability distributions of extreme indices for 1960-1986 and 1987-2013 also demonstrates a remarkable shift toward warmer condition and increasing tendency in the amount and intensity of extreme precipitation during the past decades. The variations in extreme climate indices exhibit inconstant frequencies in the wavelet power spectrum. Among the 16 temperature indices, 2 of them show significant 1-year periodic oscillation and 7 of them exhibit significant 4-year cycle during some certain periods. However, significant periodic oscillations can be found in all of the precipitation indices. Wet-day precipitation and three absolute precipitation indices show significant 1-year cycle and other seven provide significant power at the 4-year period, which are mainly found during 1970-1980 and after 1992.

Variability of extreme climate events in the territory and water area of Russia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Serykh, Ilya; Kostianoy, Andrey

2016-04-01

The Fourth (2007) and Fifth (2014) Assessment Reports on Climate Change of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) state that in the XXI century, climate change will be accompanied by an increase in the frequency, intensity and duration of extreme nature events such as: extreme precipitation and extreme high and low air temperatures. All these will lead to floods, droughts, fires, shallowing of rivers, lakes and water reservoirs, desertification, dust storms, melting of glaciers and permafrost, algal bloom events in the seas, lakes and water reservoirs. In its turn, these events will lead to chemical and biological contamination of water, land and air. These events will result in a deterioration of quality of life, significant financial loss due to damage to the houses, businesses, roads, agriculture, forestry, tourism, and in many cases they end in loss of life. These predictions are confirmed by the results of the studies presented in the RosHydromet First (2008) and Second (2014) Assessment Reports on Climate Change and its Consequences in Russian Federation. Scientists predictions have been repeatedly confirmed in the last 15 years - floods in Novorossiysk (2002), Krymsk and Gelendzhik (2012), the Far East (2013), heat waves in 2010, unusually cold winter (February) of 2012 and unusually warm winter of 2013/2014 in the European territory of Russia. In this regard, analysis and forecasting of extreme climate events associated with climate change in the territory of Russia are an extremely important task. This task is complicated by the fact that modern atmospheric models used by IPCC and RosHydromet badly reproduce and predict the intensity of precipitation. We are analyzing meteorological reanalysis data (NCEP/NCAR, 20th Century Reanalysis, ERA-20C, JRA-55) and satellite data (NASA and AVISO) on air, water and land temperature, rainfall, wind speed and cloud cover, water levels in seas and lakes, index of vegetation over the past 30-60 years (depending on the parameters) in the territory and water area of Russia for determining and mapping of the observed characteristics and trends in the extreme climate events and statistical forecast of these events for the next decades. Determination of a frequency, intensity and duration of extreme climate events in the territory and water area of Russia was done for the first time. It was found that the interannual-scale dynamics of ENSO is actually reflected in the climate features of different regions of the Earth, including the Russian Arctic. In particular, when the boreal winter season coincides with an El Niño event it is indicative by a negative anomaly of near-surface temperature (about -1°C) and a positive anomaly of sea level pressure over the Russian Western Arctic Basin. In contrary, significant (about +1°C) positive anomaly of near-surface temperature along with reduced sea level pressure over the regions of the Barents, White and Kara Seas is typical for any La Niña event (up to 95% significance of Student's t-test). The study was carried out with a support of the Russian Science Foundation Grant (Project N 14-50-00095).

Global ecological success of Thalassoma fishes in extreme coral reef habitats.

PubMed

Fulton, Christopher J; Wainwright, Peter C; Hoey, Andrew S; Bellwood, David R

2017-01-01

Phenotypic adaptations can allow organisms to relax abiotic selection and facilitate their ecological success in challenging habitats, yet we have relatively little data for the prevalence of this phenomenon at macroecological scales. Using data on the relative abundance of coral reef wrasses and parrotfishes (f. Labridae) spread across three ocean basins and the Red Sea, we reveal the consistent global dominance of extreme wave-swept habitats by fishes in the genus Thalassoma , with abundances up to 15 times higher than any other labrid. A key locomotor modification-a winged pectoral fin that facilitates efficient underwater flight in high-flow environments-is likely to have underpinned this global success, as numerical dominance by Thalassoma was contingent upon the presence of high-intensity wave energy. The ecological success of the most abundant species also varied with species richness and the presence of congeneric competitors. While several fish taxa have independently evolved winged pectoral fins, Thalassoma appears to have combined efficient high-speed swimming (to relax abiotic selection) with trophic versatility (to maximize exploitation of rich resources) to exploit and dominate extreme coral reef habitats around the world.

Water challenges of the future; how scientific understanding can help

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Young, G.

2012-04-01

Demands for water resources are diverse and are increasing as human populations grow and become more concentrated in urban areas and as economies develop. Water is essential for many uses including the basic human needs of food and the maintenance of good health, for many industries and the creation of electrical energy and as vital for the sustenance of the natural ecosystems on which all life is dependent. At the same time threats from water - floods, droughts - are increasing with these extreme events becoming more common and more intense in many regions of the world and as more people locate in flood- and drought-prone regions. In general, the challenges for water managers are thus becoming greater; managers not only are having to make increasingly difficult decisions regarding allocation of water resources between competing uses as demand outstrips supply, but they also have to take measures to protect societies from the ravages of extreme events. The intensity of the challenges facing water managers is not uniform throughout the world - many nations in the less developed world experiencing far greater problems than most highly developed nations - but the trend towards greater challenges is clear. Decision-makers, whether at the international, national, provincial or local level benefit from reliable information on water resources. They need information on the availability in quantity and quality of water from a variety of sources - surface waters, aquifers or from artificial sources such as re-cycling of wastewater and desalination techniques. Managers also need reliable predictions on water availability for the various uses to which water is put - such predictions are needed on time scales from weeks to decades to inform decision-making. Predictions are also needed on the probabilities of occurrence of extreme events. Thus hydrological scientists developing predictive models and working within a fast-changing world have much to contribute to the needs of society.

Photosystem II-cyclic electron flow powers exceptional photoprotection and record growth in the microalga Chlorella ohadii.

PubMed

Ananyev, Gennady; Gates, Colin; Kaplan, Aaron; Dismukes, G Charles

2017-11-01

The desert microalga Chlorella ohadii was reported to grow at extreme light intensities with minimal photoinhibition, tolerate frequent de/re-hydrations, yet minimally employs antenna-based non-photochemical quenching for photoprotection. Here we investigate the molecular mechanisms by measuring Photosystem II charge separation yield (chlorophyll variable fluorescence, Fv/Fm) and flash-induced O 2 yield to measure the contributions from both linear (PSII-LEF) and cyclic (PSII-CEF) electron flow within PSII. Cells grow increasingly faster at higher light intensities (μE/m 2 /s) from low (20) to high (200) to extreme (2000) by escalating photoprotection via shifting from PSII-LEF to PSII-CEF. This shifts PSII charge separation from plastoquinone reduction (PSII-LEF) to plastoquinol oxidation (PSII-CEF), here postulated to enable proton gradient and ATP generation that powers photoprotection. Low light-grown cells have unusually small antennae (332 Chl/PSII), use mainly PSII-LEF (95%) and convert 40% of PSII charge separations into O 2 (a high O 2 quantum yield of 0.06mol/mol PSII/flash). High light-grown cells have smaller antenna and lower PSII-LEF (63%). Extreme light-grown cells have only 42 Chl/PSII (no LHCII antenna), minimal PSII-LEF (10%), and grow faster than any known phototroph (doubling time 1.3h). Adding a synthetic quinone in excess to supplement the PQ pool fully uncouples PSII-CEF from its natural regulation and produces maximum PSII-LEF. Upon dark adaptation PSII-LEF rapidly reverts to PSII-CEF, a transient protection mechanism to conserve water and minimize the cost of antenna biosynthesis. The capacity of the electron acceptor pool (plastoquinone pool), and the characteristic times for exchange of (PQH 2 ) B with PQ pool and reoxidation of (PQH 2 ) pool were determined. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Characteristics and Preliminary Causes of Tropical Cyclone Extreme Rainfall Events over Hainan Island

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, Xianling; Ren, Fumin; Li, Yunjie; Qiu, Wenyu; Ma, Zhuguo; Cai, Qinbo

2018-05-01

The characteristics of tropical cyclone (TC) extreme rainfall events over Hainan Island from 1969 to 2014 are analyzed from the viewpoint of the TC maximum daily rainfall (TMDR) using daily station precipitation data from the Meteorological Information Center of the China Meteorological Administration, TC best-track data from the Shanghai Typhoon Institute, and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. The frequencies of the TMDR reaching 50, 100 and 250 mm show a decreasing trend [-0.7 (10 yr)-1], a weak decreasing trend [-0.2 (10 yr)-1] and a weak increasing trend [0.1 (10 yr)-1], respectively. For seasonal variations, the TMDR of all intensity grades mainly occurs from July to October, with the frequencies of TMDR - 50 mm and - 100 mm peaking in September and the frequency of TMDR - 250 mm [TC extreme rainstorm (TCER) events] peaking in August and September. The western region (Changjiang) of the Island is always the rainfall center, independent of the intensity or frequencies of different intensity grades. The causes of TCERs are also explored and the results show that topography plays a key role in the characteristics of the rainfall events. TCERs are easily induced on the windward slopes of Wuzhi Mountain, with the coordination of TC tracks and TC wind structure. A slower speed of movement, a stronger TC intensity and a farther westward track are all conducive to extreme rainfall events. A weaker northwestern Pacific subtropical high is likely to make the 500-hPa steering flow weaker and results in slower TC movement, whereas a stronger South China Sea summer monsoon can carry a higher moisture flux. These two environmental factors are both favorable for TCERs.

The Narrow Cold-Frontal Rainband of 22/23 November 2013

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kidd, Christopher

2015-01-01

The recent paper in Weather by Young (2014) provided a detailed analysis of an intensive cold front as it passed over the UK on 2223 November 2013. This was an extremely good example of linear convection, as it is described in the paper, or a narrow cold-frontal rainband (NCFR; Hobbs and Biswas, 1979). These features are associated with a low-level jet that lies ahead and parallel to the surface cold front, generating a band of intense but relatively shallow convection (see Koch and Kocin, 1991). Although the structure associated with these systems is not uncommon (e.g. Gatzen, 2011), this case was notable for the (linear) length and the longevity of the feature. Critically, fine-scale radar observations using the 1km, 5min UK composite radar product, produced by the UK Met Office and supplied by the British Atmospheric Data Centre, enabled the timing and progression of the most intense band of this feature tobe examined (see Figure 1).

GAS EXCHANGE OF ALGAE. I. EFFECTS OF TIME, LIGHT INTENSITY, AND SPECTRAL-ENERGY DISTRIBUTION ON THE PHOTOSYNTHETIC QUOTIENT OF CHLORELLA PYRENOIDOSA.

PubMed

AMMANN, E C; LYNCH, V H

1965-07-01

Continuously growing cultures of Chlorella pyrenoidosa Starr 252, operating at constant density and under constant environmental conditions, produced uniform photosynthetic quotient (PQ = CO(2)/O(2)) and O(2) values during 6 months of observations. The PQ for the entire study was 0.90 +/- 0.024. The PQ remained constant over a threefold light-intensity change and a threefold change in O(2) production (0.90 +/- 0.019). At low light intensities, when the rate of respiration approached the rate of photosynthesis, the PQ became extremely variable. Six lamps of widely different spectral-energy distribution produced no significant change in the PQ (0.90 +/- 0.025). Oxygen production was directly related to the number of quanta available, irrespective of spectral-energy distribution. Such dependability in producing uniform PQ and O(2) values warrants a consideration of algae to maintain a constant gas environment for submarine or spaceship use.

Variability of Lyman-alpha emission from Jupiter

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1979-01-01

The Jovian Lyman-alpha emission line was again observed in 1978 using the high resolution spectrometer on the Copernicus satellite. In intensity of 8.4+3.0 kilo Rayleighs was measured. This value represents a significant increase in intensity over previous (1976) Copernicus observations, but is lower than the recent (1979) values obtained by Voyager I and IUE. The increase in intensity was accompanied by a significant increase in line width, giving strong support to the theory that the emission results from resonant scattering of the solar Ly-alpha line by H atoms in the upper Jovian atmosphere. The strength of Jovian Ly-alpha emission correlates well with the level of solar activity. The solar extreme ultraviolet radiation varies with the solar cycle. This radiation causes the dissociation of H2 and CH4 into H atoms in the Jovian atmosphere. Therefore, in times of high solar activity, the H column density will increase, causing the observed stronger Jovian Ly-alpha emission.

Variability of Lyman-alpha emission from Jupiter

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cochran, W.D.; Barker, E.S.

1979-12-01

The Jovian L..cap alpha.. emission line was reobserved in 1978 March using the high-resolution spectrometer of the Copernicus satellite. An intensity of 8.3 +- 2.9 kilorayleighs was measured. This value represents a significant increase in intensity over previous (1976) Copernicus observations, but is lower than the recent (1979) values obtained by Voyager 1 and IUE. The increase in intensity has been accompanied by a significant increase in line width givin strong support to the theory that the emission results from resonant scattering of the solar L..cap alpha.. line by H atoms in the upper Jovian atmosphere. The strength of Jovianmore » L..cap alpha.. emission correlates well with the level of solar activity. The solar extreme ultraviolet radiation varies with the solar cycle. This radiation causes the dissociation of H/sub 2/ and CH/sub 4/ into H atoms in the Jovian atmosphere. Therefore, in times of high solar activity, the H column density will increase, causing the observed stronger Jovian L..cap alpha.. emission.« less

The effects of parasite age and intensity on variability in acanthocephalan-induced behavioural manipulation.

PubMed

Franceschi, Nathalie; Bauer, Alexandre; Bollache, Loïc; Rigaud, Thierry

2008-08-01

Numerous parasites with complex life cycles are able to manipulate the behaviour of their intermediate host in a way that increases their trophic transmission to the definitive host. Pomphorhynchus laevis, an acanthocephalan parasite, is known to reverse the phototactic behaviour of its amphipod intermediate host, Gammarus pulex, leading to an increased predation by fish hosts. However, levels of behavioural manipulation exhibited by naturally-infected gammarids are extremely variable, with some individuals being strongly manipulated whilst others are almost not affected by infection. To investigate parasite age and parasite intensity as potential sources of this variation, we carried out controlled experimental infections on gammarids using parasites from two different populations. We first determined that parasite intensity increased with exposure dose, but found no relationship between infection and host mortality. Repeated measures confirmed that the parasite alters host behaviour only when it reaches the cystacanth stage which is infective for the definitive host. They also revealed, we believe for the first time, that the older the cystacanth, the more it manipulates its host. The age of the parasite is therefore a major source of variation in parasite manipulation. The number of parasites within a host was also a source of variation. Manipulation was higher in hosts infected by two parasites than in singly infected ones, but above this intensity, manipulation did not increase. Since the development time of the parasite was also different according to parasite intensity (it was longer in doubly infected hosts than in singly infected ones, but did not increase more in multi-infected hosts), individual parasite fitness could depend on the compromise between development time and manipulation efficiency. Finally, the two parasite populations tested induced slightly different degrees of behavioural manipulation.

New Insights into the Estimation of Extreme Geomagnetic Storm Occurrences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruffenach, Alexis; Winter, Hugo; Lavraud, Benoit; Bernardara, Pietro

2017-04-01

Space weather events such as intense geomagnetic storms are major disturbances of the near-Earth environment that may lead to serious impacts on our modern society. As such, it is of great importance to estimate their probability, and in particular that of extreme events. One approach largely used in statistical sciences for extreme events probability estimates is Extreme Value Analysis (EVA). Using this rigorous statistical framework, estimations of the occurrence of extreme geomagnetic storms are performed here based on the most relevant global parameters related to geomagnetic storms, such as ground parameters (e.g. geomagnetic Dst and aa indexes), and space parameters related to the characteristics of Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) (velocity, southward magnetic field component, electric field). Using our fitted model, we estimate the annual probability of a Carrington-type event (Dst = -850nT) to be on the order of 10-3, with a lower limit of the uncertainties on the return period of ˜500 years. Our estimate is significantly higher than that of most past studies, which typically had a return period of a few 100 years at maximum. Thus precautions are required when extrapolating intense values. Currently, the complexity of the processes and the length of available data inevitably leads to significant uncertainties in return period estimates for the occurrence of extreme geomagnetic storms. However, our application of extreme value models for extrapolating into the tail of the distribution provides a mathematically justified framework for the estimation of extreme return periods, thereby enabling the determination of more accurate estimates and reduced associated uncertainties.

Velocity-gauge real-time TDDFT within a numerical atomic orbital basis set

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pemmaraju, C. D.; Vila, F. D.; Kas, J. J.; Sato, S. A.; Rehr, J. J.; Yabana, K.; Prendergast, David

2018-05-01

The interaction of laser fields with solid-state systems can be modeled efficiently within the velocity-gauge formalism of real-time time dependent density functional theory (RT-TDDFT). In this article, we discuss the implementation of the velocity-gauge RT-TDDFT equations for electron dynamics within a linear combination of atomic orbitals (LCAO) basis set framework. Numerical results obtained from our LCAO implementation, for the electronic response of periodic systems to both weak and intense laser fields, are compared to those obtained from established real-space grid and Full-Potential Linearized Augmented Planewave approaches. Potential applications of the LCAO based scheme in the context of extreme ultra-violet and soft X-ray spectroscopies involving core-electronic excitations are discussed.

Sensitivities of the hydrologic cycle to model physics, grid resolution, and ocean type in the aquaplanet Community Atmosphere Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Benedict, James J.; Medeiros, Brian; Clement, Amy C.; Pendergrass, Angeline G.

2017-06-01

Precipitation distributions and extremes play a fundamental role in shaping Earth's climate and yet are poorly represented in many global climate models. Here, a suite of idealized Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) aquaplanet simulations is examined to assess the aquaplanet's ability to reproduce hydroclimate statistics of real-Earth configurations and to investigate sensitivities of precipitation distributions and extremes to model physics, horizontal grid resolution, and ocean type. Little difference in precipitation statistics is found between aquaplanets using time-constant sea-surface temperatures and those implementing a slab ocean model with a 50 m mixed-layer depth. In contrast, CAM version 5.3 (CAM5.3) produces more time mean, zonally averaged precipitation than CAM version 4 (CAM4), while CAM4 generates significantly larger precipitation variance and frequencies of extremely intense precipitation events. The largest model configuration-based precipitation sensitivities relate to choice of horizontal grid resolution in the selected range 1-2°. Refining grid resolution has significant physics-dependent effects on tropical precipitation: for CAM4, time mean zonal mean precipitation increases along the Equator and the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) narrows, while for CAM5.3 precipitation decreases along the Equator and the twin branches of the ITCZ shift poleward. Increased grid resolution also reduces light precipitation frequencies and enhances extreme precipitation for both CAM4 and CAM5.3 resulting in better alignment with observational estimates. A discussion of the potential implications these hydrologic cycle sensitivities have on the interpretation of precipitation statistics in future climate projections is also presented.